o

Ph.D. Manpower:

Employment Demand, and Supply

1972-85

U.S. Department of Labor 

Bureau of Labor Statistics 

1975

Bulletin 1860

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United. States. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Doctoral manpower.

(Bulletin - U.S.„Bureau of Labor Statistics)

"Prepared in the Bureau’s Division of Manpower and.

Occupational Outlook by Elinor W. Abramson under the

general direction of Michael F. Crowley."

Supt. of Docs, no.: L 2.3:i860

1. College graduates— Employment— United States.

2. Labor supply— United States. 3- Doctor of philosophy degree. I. Abramson, Elinor W. II. Crowley,

Michael F. III. Title.’ IV. Series: United States.

Bureau of Labor Statistics. Bulletin.

HD6278.U5U54 1975 331.l ’l 75-619118

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Ph.D Manpower:

Employment Demand, and Supply

1972-85

U.S. Department of Labor 

John T. Dunlop, Secretary

Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Julius Shiskin, Commissioner 

1975

Bulletin 1860

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Preface

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has as one of its major tasks the development 

and dissemination of information on future manpower requirements and supply. 

This bulletin is part of a series relating to the Bureau’s projections of economic 

and manpower data to 1985. Other publications include:

The Structure of the U.S. Economy in 1980 and 1985, BLS Bulletin 1831

(1975).

Occupational Manpower and Training Needs, Revised 1974, BLS Bulletin 1824

(1975).

“Detours: The Road Ahead for College Graduates,” Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Summer 1974, Vol. 18, No. 2.

The U.S. Economy in 1985: A Summary of BLS Projections, BLS Bulletin 1809

(1974). Reprint of 4 articles from the Monthly Labor Review of December 1973.

“Education of Workers: Projections to 1990,” Monthly Labor Review, November

1973.

This bulletin was prepared in the Bureau’s Division of Manpower and Occupational Outlook by Elinor W. Abramson under the general direction of 

Michael F. Crowley.

in

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Contents

Highlights................................................................................................................................................................ 1

Introduction............................................................................................................................................................. 4

Chapter I. Current employment.......................................................................................................................... 5

Employers......................................................................................................................................................... 5

Primary work activity..................................................................................................................................... 7

Chapter II. Projected requirements and supply.................................................................................................. 9

Requirements.................................................................................................................................................... 9

Factors affecting requirements..............................................................................................................10

Projected requirements.......................................................................................................................... 10

Job openings..........................................................................................................................................13

Alternative projections...................................................................................................................... ...13

Supply................................................................................................................................................................ 14

Supply-demand balance.................................................................................................................................. 15

Chapter III. Implications..................................................................................................................................... 16

Text tables:

1. Employment of Ph. D .’s, by field and employer, 1972 ............................................................................. 5

2. Percent distribution of Ph. D .’s, for each employer by field, 1972 ........................................................ 6

3. Employment of Ph. D .’s, by employer and primary work activity, 1972............................................... 6

4. Percent distribution of Ph. D .’s, for each work activity by employer, 1972 ............................................ 7

5. Employment of Ph. D .’s, by field and primary work activity, 1972....................................................... 7

6. Projected requirements for Ph. D .’s, by employer, 1985 .......................................................................... 11

7. Projected requirements for Ph. D .’s, by field, 1985.................................................................................... 11

8. Projected requirements for Ph. D .’s, by field and employer, 1985........................................................... 12

9. Source of demand for Ph. D .’s, 1972-85 .................................................................................................... 13

10. Estimated supply of new Ph. D .’s, 1972-85 ................................................................................................ 14

11. Supply and demand, 1985 ............................................................................................................................ 14

Appendix: Data sources and statistical methods........................... .................................................................. . 18

Appendix tables:

A-l. Current employment of Ph. D .’s, 1972................................................................................................. 18

A-2. Estimated age distribution of Ph. D .’s, 1972 ........................................................................ 20

A-3. Estimated employment of Ph. D .’s, by field, 1966-72............................................................ 20

A-4. Percent distribution of Ph. D .’s employed by educational institutions, 1966-72............................... 20

A-5. Estimated age distribution of Ph. D .’s, 1985.......................................................................... 20

A-6. Estimated supply of new Ph. D .’s, 1972-85............................................................................. 21

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HIGHLIGHTS

Ph.D. employment in 1972

Educational institutions,

70.5%

Government,

8.2%

An estimated 335,000 Ph.D.’s

were employed in 1972.

A b o u t one-half were in engineering

and natural science.

Arts and

humanities,

A b o u t seven-tenths w orked in

educational institutions.

Adm inistration, 8.0%

O ther, 3.2%

Professional

services, 5.6%

O ther, 2.9%

N onprofit

organizations, 3.8%

A b o u t one-half taught most

o f the tim e.

O ther fields, 2.0%

Business

and commerce,

1.6%

Industry

and business,

14.6%

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D

HIGHLIGHTS-Continued

Ph.D. employment growth

From 1 97 2 to 1 9 8 5 , dem and fo r

Ph.D.'s w ill grow nearly tw ice as

fast as fo r all workers, but more

slow ly than fo r college graduates

as a whole. By 1 98 5, em p lo ym ent requirem ents for Ph.D.'s

w ill increase to 4 7 5 ,0 0 0 , if trends

continue in the use of Ph.D.'s

relative to other workers in the

same occupation.

Field of Ph.D.

Percent increase

25

in em ploym ent, 1972-85

50 75

Life science J

Mathematics |

Social science

and psychology

Business and com m erce, th e slowest growing field, w ill be up 18

percent; engineering, the fastest

growing, 8 0 percent.

Psychology

Arts and I---------------------

hum anities I____________

Education [

Business and

commerce

A ll other fields

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HIG H LIG H TS-Continued

Ph.D. openings and supply, 1972-85

100

T o tal openings over th e 1 9 7 2 -8 5

period fo r grow th and fo r replacem ent w ill num ber about

1 8 7 ,0 0 0 . On the other hand, if

trends in the awarding of Ph.D.

degrees continue as in the past

decade, the supply of new doctorates w ill num ber 5 8 0 ,0 0 0 .

Num ber (in thousands)

200 300 400

Openings,

1972-85

Supply, 1972-85

Number (in thousands)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Engineering

Physical science

Chemistry

Physics

Life science

Mathematics

Social science

and psychology

Psychology

Arts and

humanities

Education

Business and

commerce

A ll other

fields

Openings

Supply

■ ■

—I

■ : ■ :

The o u tlo o k fo r Ph.D .'s during

the 1970's and early 1980's

probably w ill no t be as bright as

in the past. Increasing numbers

may w o rk in jobs n o t fo rm erly

held by Ph.D .'s. In some fields

Ph.D.'s w ill feel the effects more

strongly than in other fields.

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Introduction

Beginning in the late 1960’s, great concern developed about the future employment prospects for 

persons holding a doctoral degree. Federal cutbacks 

of funds for defense and space-related activities and 

research and development (R&D) combined with 

weakened financial positions of colleges and universities to produce a poor job market for doctorate 

holders. Individuals having doctoral degrees experienced difficulty in obtaining jobs of their choice. 

Nevertheless, the number of students enrolled in 

graduate programs continued to increase to record 

levels.

Publicity about manpower surpluses highlighted 

the troubled job market for Ph. D .’s during the late 

1960’s and early 1970’s. Numerous stories were 

told of doctorate holders preparing income tax 

forms, pumping gasoline, or parking cars. Unemployment data for selected groups of Ph. D .’s indicated that although their unemployment rate was 

much lower than the average for all workers, it had 

increased significantly during the 1968-71 period.1

When the employment situation for doctorate 

holders is assessed, however, the consequences of 

underutilized Ph. D. manpower must be considered 

for individuals, employers, and society. Additional 

questions also arise. What is the long term supplydemand outlook for Ph. D. manpower? Should 

graduate education be changed from its traditional

1 For example, the National Science Foundation reported a

0.9 percent unemployment rate for Ph. D. scientists in 1970,

rising to 1.4 percent in 1971, compared with a 1970 unemployment rate of 4.9 percent for all workers, rising to 5.9 percent

in 1971. See Unemployment Rates and Employment Characteristics for Scientists and Engineers, 1971, NSF 72-30 (National

Science Foundation, 1972).

research orientation? What information should be 

given to young people who are considering graduate 

education as a road to their career goals?

This report attempts to shed light on some of the 

major factors that should be considered in answering these questions for policymaking and vocational 

guidance by providing basic manpower data on 

Ph. D .’s. The data cover persons holding a doctoral 

degree in engineering, mathematics, natural science, 

social science, the arts and humanities, education, 

business and commerce, and other fields. These 

degrees may be conferred as Doctor of Philosophy 

(Ph. D.). Doctor of Science (Sc. D.), Doctor of 

Education (Ed. D.), Doctor of Business Administration (D.B.A.), Doctor of Arts, or other similar 

awards. First professional doctor’s degrees such as 

M.D., D.D.S., and J.D. are not included.

Underlying the projections in this report are the 

assumptions that changes in relative wages, the desire for education, and other factors will have little 

effect on the educational patterns and career choices 

of young persons, and that conditions will not arise 

whereby employers will significantly change the trend 

in the utilization patterns for Ph. D. manpower. If 

supply and demand are not in balance, however, 

such changes are likely to occur to some extent. 

Therefore, the requirements and supply projections in 

this report are not forecasts of actual conditions in 

1985. However, by illustrating what could be expected if the past decade’s trends and patterns continue, valuable insight can be obtained for planning 

careers, education, and training. It also would be 

very useful to identify the extent to which adjustments to supply and requirements will occur because 

of supply-demand imbalances.

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Chapter I. Current Employment

About 335,000 persons having a doctoral degree 

were employed in 1972. Nearly half—about 162,000— 

had doctorates in engineering or natural science 

(table 1). Only a small proportion had earned their 

doctorates in business and commerce.2

2These estimates are consistent with those published by the

National Academy of Sciences, although they differ somewhat

because of coverage. The current study encompasses doctorate

holders in all fields, including fields not included by the Academy. See appendix to this report and Doctoral Scientists and

Engineers in the United States, 1973 Profile (National Academy

of Sciences, March 1974).

Employers

Of the doctorate holders employed in 1972, about 

70 percent worked in educational institutions. Another 15 percent worked in private industry and 

business or were self-employed. Smaller proportions 

worked in government and in nonprofit organizations. This distribution is virtually the same as 10 

years earlier.

In all fields except engineering and chemistry, 

educational institutions were the major employer of

Table 1. Employment of Ph. D.’s, by field and employer, 1972

Field Total

Educational

institutions

Industry and

business Government

Nonprofit

organizations Other1

Number (in thousands)

All fields............................................................... 334.6 235.9 48.7 27.6 12.7 9.7

Engineering and natural science.................................. 161.7 91.1 44.6 15.4 4.8 5.9

Engineering............................................................. 31.0 12.7 14.0 2.0 1.0 1.3

Physical science..................................................... 63.8 30.6 24.3 4.9 1.7 2.3

Chemistry.......................................................... 35.9 14.6 17.6 1.9 .7 1.0

Physics.............................................................. 22.6 12.5 5.6 2.5 1.0 1.0

Life science............................................................ 54.5 38.1 4.6 7.9 1.7 2.1

Mathematics........................................................... 12.4 9.7 1.7 .5 .3 .2

Social science and psychology.................................... 63.8 47.2 2.6 8.1 3.8 2.1

Psychology.............................................................. 22.7 13.2 1.3 4.9 2.3 1.0

Arts and humanities...................................................... 38.8 36.8 .4 .4 .7 .5

Education..................................................................... 58.3 51.6 .6 3.3 1.9 .9

Business and commerce.............................................. 5.4 4.5 .4 .1 .1 .2

Other fields.................................................................. 6.7 4.8 .1 .2 1.4 (2 )

Percent distribution

All fields.............................................................. 100.0 70.5 14.6 8.2 3.8 2.9

Engineering and natural science................................. 100.0 56.3 27.6 9.5 3.0 3.6

Engineering............................................................ 100.0 41.0 45.0 6.6 3.2 4.2

Physical science.................................................... 100.0 48.0 38.0 7.7 2.9 3.4

Chemistry......................................................... 100.0 40.8 49.1 5.3 1.9 2.9

Physics............................................................. 100.0 55.3 24.6 11.0 4.6 4.5

Life science........................................................... 100.0 69.9 8.5 14.5 3.2 3.9

Mathematics.......................................................... 100.0 77.8 13.9 4.0 2.5 1.8

Social science and psychology............................ ....... 100.0 73.9 4.1 12.7 6.0 3.3

Psychology............................................................. 100.0 58.4 5.7 21.7 10.0 4.2

Arts and humanities................................................. 100.0 94.8 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.3

Education.................................................................... 100.0 88.5 1.0 5.7 3.2 1.6

Business and commerce................... .......................... 100.0 84.0 8.3 2.7 2.0 3.0

Other fields.................................... . ............... 100.0 72.3 1.8 3.6 21.7 .6

11n the prime source data, the National Academy of Sciences shows an “ other” category,

which may be used by respondents to the NAS doctoral report. However, it is not clear what

this category includes.

2 Fewer than 50 persons.

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Field Total

Educational

institutions

Industry and

business Government

Nonprofit

organizations Other1

All fields................................................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Engineering and natural science...................................... 48.3 38.6 91.5 55.6 38.0 61.0

Engineering................................................................. 9.3 5.4 28.7 7.4 7.7 13.6

Physical science......................................................... 19.1 13.0 49.8 17.8 14.2 22.9

Chemistry.............................................................. 10.7 6.2 36.2 6.9 5.3 10.9

Physics.................................................................. 6.8 5.3 11.4 9.0 8.1 10.6

Life science................................................................ 16.3 16.1 9.5 28.6 13.6 22.1

Mathematics............................................................... 3.7 4.1 3.5 1.8 2.4 2.3

Social science and psychology......................................... 19.1 20.0 5.4 29.4 29.9 22.0

Psychology.................................................................. 6.8 5.6 2.6 17.8 17.7 9.9

Arts and humanities.......................................................... 11.6 15.6 .8 1.5 5.4 5.3

Education.......>................................................................ 17.4 21.9 1.2 12.0 14.6 9.7

Business and commerce................................................... 1.6 1.9 .9 .5 .8 1.7

Other fields....................................................................... 2.0 2.0 .2 .9 11.3 .4

1 In the prime source data, the National Academy of Sciences shows an “ other” category,

which may be used by respondents to the NAS doctoral report. However, it is not clear what

this category includes.

Ph. D .’s. Because of the great involvement of engineers and chemists in industrial research and development, private industry utilizes proportionately 

more doctoral workers in these two fields than in 

other fields. In many fields, few doctorate holders 

work outside of educational institutions. For example, only 5 percent of the Ph. D’s in the arts 

and humanities work outside of educational institutions.

As an indication of the importance of R&D in 

industry and business, more than nine-tenths of the 

Ph. D .’s working for these employers hold degrees

NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding.

in engineering and natural science (table 2). In 

government, slightly more than one-half of the 

Ph. D .’s are in engineering and natural science. 

The government’s strong interest in social welfare 

and health programs also can be seen clearly—more 

than one-fourth of government Ph. D .’s are in 

social science and psychology and another onefourth are in life science. On the other hand, in 

both educational institutions and nonprofit organizations, three-fifths of all Ph. D .’s are in fields other 

than engineering and natural science.

Table 3. Employment of Ph. D.’s, by employer and primary work activity, 1972

Employer Total Teaching

Research

and

development

Administration

Professional

services to

individuals

Other

activities

Number (in thousands)

All employers.............................................................. 334.6 168.6 109.8 26.8 18.9 10.6

Educational institutions................................................... 235.9 166.6 38.6 21.7 6.9 2.1

Industry and business....................................................... 48.7 .2 40.5 1.1 3.1 3.7

Government...................................................................... 27.6 .7 18.1 2.3 4.8 1.6

Nonprofit organizations.................................................... 12.7 .6 6.9 1.0 3.3 .9

Other1............................................................................... 9.7 .4 5.7 .6 .7 2.3

Percent distribution

All employers.............................................................. 100.0 50.4 32.8 8.0 5.6 3.2

Educational institutions................................................... 100.0 70.6 16.4 9.2 2.9 .9

Industry and business....................................................... 100.0 .5 83.1 2.3 6.4 7.7

Government...................................................................... 100.0 2.7 65.6 8.4 17.5 5.8

Nonprofit organizations.................................................... 100.0 4.9 54.1 7.7 26.3 7.0

Other1............................................................................... 100.0 4.5 58.7 5.8 7.7 23.3

' In the prime source data, the National Academy of Sciences shows an “ other” category, NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding.

wflicTi may be used by respondents to the NAS doctoral report. However, it is not clear what

this category includes.

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Prim ary work activity

Ph. D .’s work primarily in teaching, research and 

development, administration, and professional services to individuals. The single most important work 

activity is teaching—employing about one-half of 

them most of the time (table 3).3

Next to teaching, the most important work activity 

of Ph. D .’s—33 percent—is R&D. In all sectors except education, more Ph. D ’s were engaged in 

R&D than any other activity. R&D activities involved 83 percent of the Ph. D .’s employed in 

industry and business, 66 percent in government, 

and 54 percent in nonprofit organizations compared with only 16 percent in educational institutions.

About 8 percent or 26,800 of all Ph. D .’s were 

in administration in 1972. Approximately 21,700 of

3These data are based on what the Ph. D. did most of the

time although the individual also may have worked in another activity.

Employer Total Teaching

Research!

and j

development

Administration

Professional

services

to

individuals

Other

activities

All employers.. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Educational

institutions....... 70.5 98.8 35.2 80.3 36.7 19.8

Industry and

business............ 14.6 .1 36.9 4.1 16.5 34.9

Government......... 8.3 .4 16.5 8.6 25.5 15.1

Nonprofit

organizations.... 3.8 .4 6.3 3.8 17.6 8.5

Other1................. 2.9 .2 5.2 2.3 3.7 21.7

1 1n the prime source data, the National Academy of Sciences shows an “ other” category,

which may be used by respondents to the NAS doctoral report.

NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding.

Table 5. Employment of Ph. D.’s, by field and primary work activity, 1972

Field Total Teaching

Research

and

development

Administration

Professional

services to

individuals

Other

activities

Number (in thousands)

All fields................................................................... 334.6 168.6 109.8 26.8 18.9 10.6

Engineering and natural science...................................... 161.7 59.4 90.1 3.0 2.9 6.2

Engineering................................................................. 31.0 9.2 18.8 .7 .6 1.6

Physical science......................................................... 63.8 20.2 40.0 .8 .6 2.1

Chemistry.............................................................. 35.9 11.0 23.4 .4 .2 .9

Physics.................................................................. 22.6 6.2 15.5 .3 .2 .5

Life science................................................................ 54.5 22.2 27.3 1.4 1.5 2.1

Mathematics............................................................... 12.4 7.8 3.9 .1 .2 .4

Social science and psychology........................................ 63.8 36.3 13.5 2.8 9.3 1.9

Psychology.................................................................. 22.7 7.9 6.5 .7 7.0 .5

Arts and humanities.......................................................... 38.8 35.4 1.1 1.1 .5 .7

Education......................................................................... 58.3 29.0 4.1 18.9 5.0 1.2

Business and commerce................................................... 5.4 4.1 .4 .4 .3 .2

Other fields....................................................................... 6.7 4.4 .5 .5 .9 .3

Percent distribution

All fields................................................................... 100.0 50.4 32.8 8.0 5.6 3.2

Engineering and natural science...................................... 100.0 36.8 55.7 1.8 1.8 3.9

Engineering................................................................. 100.0 29.8 60.6 2.3 2.0 5.3

Physical science......................................................... 100.0 31.7 62.7 1.3 1.0 3.3

Chemistry.............................................................. 100.0 30.6 65.2 1.1 .6 2.5

Physics.................................................................. 100.0 27.3 68.6 1.3 .7 2.1

Life science................................................................ 100.0 40.7 50.2 2.5 2.8 3.8

Mathematics............................................................... 100.0 62.8 31.8 .7 1.3 3.4

Social science and psychology......................................... 100.0 56.9 21.2 4.4 14.5 3.0

Psychology.................................................................. 100.0 35.0 28.8 2.9 31.0 2.3

Arts and humanities.......................................................... 100.0 91.1 2.9 2.9 1.2 1.9

Education......................................................................... 100.0 49.8 7.1 32.4 8.6 2.1

Business and commerce................................................... 100.0 75.8 7.4' 7.9 5.1 3.8

Other fields....................................................................... 100.0 66.6 7.5 7.8 13.8 4.3

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these worked in educational institutions, 2,300 in 

government, 1,000 in nonprofit organizations, and 

1,100 in industry and business.

In the fourth activity, professional services to 

individuals,4 less than 6 percent of all Ph. D ’s 

are employed. Of these, 37 percent worked in 

educational institutions, 26 percent in nonprofit 

organizations, and 18 percent in government (table 4).

Primary work activity varies considerably by field 

(table 5). For example, over three-fifths of Ph. D.

mathematicians primarily teach, but no other group 

of engineering and natural science Ph. D .’s is engaged in teaching to that extent. In engineering and 

natural science specialties, between one-half and 

two-thirds of the doctorate holders participate in 

R&D most of the time. Arts and humanities doctorate holders, on the other hand, have little employment outside of teaching. Psychology is the 

only field shown in which Ph. D .’s are very nearly 

evenly divided among three activities.

4Included are consultation, guidance, and advisory activities.

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Chapter II. Projected Requirements and Supply

Requirements

A basic question exists about the nature of the 

demand for Ph. D. manpower. Is there an identifiable need in a specific occupation for doctoral workers that can be distinguished from a general need 

for college educated workers? If it cannot be separately identified, projections of demand for Ph. D .’s 

would not be meaningful. The need exists if (1) 

specific jobs can be identified that require Ph. D .’s 

and (2) employers have special activities designed to 

recruit Ph. D .’s.

Although a decision to hire a specific individual 

depends on that person’s qualifications and on current economic conditions, the demand for Ph. D .’s 

can be identified separately from the more general 

demand for college graduates. This conclusion is 

based largely on a 1968 BLS study of doctoral 

scientists and engineers in private industry.5 However, a doctoral degree increasingly is required for 

academic employment, although private industry 

may be less rigid than higher education or government in substituting non-Ph. D .’s for Ph. D .’s. 

Nonprofit organizations have hiring practices similar 

to policies in higher education.

In some instances, employment of doctorate holders 

is related to the prestige factor of the degree itself. 

If an organization is willing to pay a higher rate for 

a Ph. D. than for a less qualified worker, then an 

effective demand exists. Whatever the reason, the 

result is the same—an economic demand for Ph. D’s.

The projections of requirements in this report 

assume a continuation through 1985 of past use 

patterns for Ph. D .’s relative to total workers in a 

specific occupation. For example, historical data 

indicated that the propprtion of psychologists employed by nonprofit organizations who have had a 

doctorate has remained at about 25 percent over the 

past several years. In the 1985 projections, this rate 

is, therefore, the same.

5Ph. D. Scientists and Engineers in Private Industry, 1968-80,

Bulletin 1648 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1970).

Most ratios, however, did change between 1966 

and 1972, as a result of changes in the nature of the 

work requiring higher degrees of skill and education, 

institutional changes affecting occupational qualifications, and supply-demand conditions stemming from 

the rapid growth in the number of Ph. D. degrees 

that were awarded. Projected 1985 ratios developed 

for each field by sector of the economy were applied 

to the Bureau’s 1985 occupational projections to 

obtain the projections of Ph. D. requirements.6

In the analysis of Ph. D. manpower, therefore, 

the interaction of a greater (or lesser) supply than 

in the past of Ph. D .’s relative to demand could 

change employers’ use patterns. For example, if in a 

specific field many more Ph. D .’s became available 

than were being hired at the going wage rate for 

Ph. D .’s, theoretically some might accept jobs at 

lower wages which in turn could induce employers 

to hire even more Ph. D .’s. Also, a changing 

supply-demand situation of Ph. D .’s could change 

employers’ perceptions of what constitutes Ph. D.- 

type work. To the extent that these perceptions 

change over time, Ph. D .’s could be employed in a 

wide variety of jobs not now currently filled by 

those holding the Ph. D.

General assumptions that underlie the Bureau’s 

occupational projections are as follows:

The institutional framework of the American economy

will not change radically.

Economic, social, technological, and scientific trends will

continue, including values placed on work, education, income, and leisure.

Efforts to solve major domestic problems, such as air

and water pollution, solid waste disposal, urban congestion, inadequate industrial safety, and energy shortages,

may consume more productive resources.

Fiscal, monetary, and manpower training and educational

programs will achieve a satisfactory balance between unemployment and price stability, permitting achievement of the

long-term economic growth rate. (The projections assume

a 4-percent unemployment rate and a 3-percent annual

increase in the implicit price deflator for gross national

product.)

6 See appendix for detailed explanation.

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The projections also assume that U.S. energy 

requirements will be roughly in line with those projected by the U.S. Department of the Interior in 

U.S. Energy Through the Year 2000, December 

1970. This means major reliance on oil imports to 

close the energy supply-demand gap. However, curtailment of oil supplies from the Mideast in late 

1973 raised questions regarding the use of imports 

to close the supply-demand gap over the next few 

years. It remains to be seen what implications higher 

oil prices may have for the long-term growth rate 

and for structural changes in the economy. The 

Bureau is studying the employment effects of alternative assumptions on energy; the results are expected to be available in late 1975.

Factors affecting requirements

The earlier discussion indicated the basic parameters for projections of Ph. D .’s in this report. 

However, several factors in specific occupations 

affect the demand for Ph. D .’s. The two most important work activities of Ph. D .’s are teaching and 

research and development. Although teaching is done 

primarily by college and university faculty, R&D 

activities take place in different sectors of the economy-colleges and universities, private industry, government, and nonprofit organizations. Some of the 

specific factors that affect the demand for faculty 

Ph. D .’s and research Ph. D .’s are discussed in the 

following paragraphs.

Faculty. In educational institutions, doctorate holders teach and advise students; conduct research; and 

administer schools, departments, or programs.

In statistical terms, college and university demand 

for Ph. D .’s is a function of the number of young 

persons in the population, the proportion attending 

college, pupil-faculty ratios, and doctorate-faculty 

ratios. The Office of Education’s projections of 

total faculty, which were used to develop the 

doctorate-faculty ratios in this report, indicate that 

pupil-teacher ratios will continue to decline gradually.7

In 1972, about 57 percent of all faculty members 

in 4-year colleges and universities held a doctorate. 

If present trends continue, the proportion of faculty 

having doctorates by 1985 could be expected to rise 

to about 65 percent. Based on trends between 1966 

and 1972, the comparable ratios for community

7 During the 1972-85 period covered by this study, the Office

of Education projects that enrollment in institutions of higher

education will increase by 5.6 percent.

colleges would be 5 percent in 1972 and 9 percent 

in 1985.

If 65 percent of college and university faculty have 

doctorates by 1985, projections in this report imply 

that about 71 percent of new hires in 4-year colleges 

and universities and about 10 percent of new hires in 

community colleges will have such degrees. 8

Doctorate holders working in elementary and 

secondary schools are primarily Ed. D .’s, although 

the exact proportion of such workers is not known. 

The projections, therefore, reflect trends for the 

period 1957-72 in the proportion of doctorate holders to all teachers employed in elementary and 

secondary schools.

Research and development. The key demand factor 

for doctorate holders in sectors other than educational institutions is R&D activity, which is largely 

performed by scientists and engineers.

Two aspects are involved in estimating demand 

for Ph. D .’s in R&D: (1) The level of R&D activity 

(dollars expended), and (2) the nature of R&D 

activity (the mix between research and development). 

Doctorate holders are more likely to do research 

than development. The Ph. D. projections in this 

report are consistent with the level of R&D activity 

implied in the Bureau’s economic projections to 

1985.

Other factors. Most Ph. D .’s work in either teaching or R&D positions. A rapidly growing number of 

doctorate holders, however, work in jobs that probably could be performed as well by non-Ph. D .’s. 

Even when demand generally has been high, some 

Ph. D .’s have worked by choice in jobs that traditionally have not been held by Ph. D .’s; others, for 

personal reasons, could only find such jobs. It is 

likely that this type of nontraditional employment 

and underemployment will continue. Employment of 

Ph. D .’s in these kinds of jobs does not represent 

true demand for doctoral manpower, but it does 

draw on the supply of Ph. D ’s. These patterns 

must be accounted for in projections of future demand if the picture is to be complete.

Projected requirements

Over the 1972-85 period, requirements for Ph.D .’s 

are projected to rise about 42 percent or 13A times 

as fast as total employment. By comparison, demand 

for workers having 4 years or more of college is

8 See alternative projections on page 13.

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Employer Requirements,

1985

Percent change,

1972-85

All employers.................. 474,900 41.9

Educational institutions.......... 312,000 32.3

Industry and business.............. 97,400 100.0

Government.............................. 42,700 54.7

Nonprofit organizations........... 22,800 79.1

NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding.

projected to rise by about 68 percent because of expected rapid increases in sales and managerial jobs— 

areas not expected to have a significant demand for 

Ph. D .’s.

The projected rate of growth for Ph. D .’s varies 

among different employers. Requirements for 

Ph. D .’s in educational institutions are expected to 

increase only 32 percent; in government, almost 55 

percent; in nonprofit organizations 79 percent; and in 

industry and business, 100 percent (table 6). As a 

result of these different growth rates, the distribution of Ph. D .’s by sector of the economy is expected to change over the 1972-85 period as follows:

Distribution of Ph. D.’s,

by employer

1972 1985

Total................................. 100.0 100.0

Educational institutions.......... 72.6 65.7

Industry and business.............. 15.0 20.5

Government............................. 8.5 9.0

Nonprofit organizations........... 3.9 4.8

The projections also show great variety in growth 

rates by occupation (tables 7 and 8).

Demand for engineering Ph. D .’s is expected to 

rise to 59,100, an increase of more than 90 percent— 

the largest relative increase of all the fields. More 

than three-fifths of these jobs in 1985 are projected 

for industry and business. Nearly another one-third 

are expected to be in educational institutions.

Demand for physical science Ph. D .’s is projected 

to increase by about 44 percent to 91,700. Nearly 

one-half of the jobs are expected to be in industry 

and business, with another two-fifths in educational 

institutions.

Some variation exists for the two major subfields, 

chemistry and physics. Demand for chemistry 

Ph. D .’s is expected to grow to 50,000, nearly 41 

percent above 1972 levels. Nearly three-fifths of the 

projected 1985 requirements are expected to be in 

industry and business and almost one-third in educational institutions. On the other hand, nearly onehalf of the projected jobs for physics Ph. D .’s in 

1985 are expected to be for work in educational 

institutions and more than one-third in industry and 

business, with demand for all Ph. D .’s in physics 

rising by 30 percent to 29,400.

Demand for life science Ph. D .’s is projected to 

grow by 34 percent to 73,100. More than two-thirds 

of these are expected to be employed by educational 

institutions in 1985.

Mathematics Ph. D. requirements are projected to 

increase by nearly 59 percent to 19,800, with threefourths of all mathematics doctoral degree holders 

working for educational institutions.

Social science and psychology Ph. D. requirements are projected to rise by about 37 percent to 

87,100. Three-fourths of the jobs for these workers 

are expected to be in educational institutions.

Table 7. Projected requirements for Ph. D.'s, by field, 1985

Field Employment,

1972

Requirements,

1985

Percent change,

1972-85

All fields................................................................... 334,600 474,900 41.9

Engineering and natural science...................................... 161,700 243,700 50.7

Engineering................................................................. 31,000 59,100 90.5

Physical science......................................................... 63,800 91,700 43.8

Chemistry.............................................................. 35,900 50,500 40.7

Physics.................................................................. 22,600 29,400 30.0

Life science................................................................ 54,500 73,100 34.2

Mathematics............................................................... 12,400 19,800 59.3

Social science and psychology......................................... 63,800 87,100 36.5

Psychology.................................................................. 22,700 34,400 51.7

Arts and humanities.......................................................... 38,800 49,400 27.3

Education......................................................................... 58,300 79,200 35.9

Business and commerce................................................... 5,400 6,300 18.2

Other fields....................................................................... 6,700 9,100 37.2

n

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Field Total

Educational

institutions

Industry and

business Government

Nonprofit

organizations

Number (in thousands)

All fields................................................................... 474.9 312.0 97.4 42.7 22.8

Engineering and natural science...................................... 243.7 120.2 90.8 25.2 7.5

Engineering................................................................. 59.1 18.0 35.6 3.5 2.0

Physical science......................................................... 91.7 37.0 44.0 8.3 2.5

Chemistry.............................................................. 50.5 16.1 29.9 3.6 .9

Physics.................................................................. 29.4 13.7 10.6 3.6 1.4

Life science............................................................... 73.1 50.1 7.9 12.6 2.5

Mathematics............................................................... 19.8 15.1 3.3 .8 .5

Social science and psychology........................................ 87.1 65.4 3.6 12.1 6.0

Psychology.................................................................. 34.4 20.2 1.0 9.7 3.5

Arts and humanities.......................................................... 49.4 46.7 .8 .7 1.2

Education......................................................................... 79.2 68.3 1.2 4.1 5.6

Business and commerce................................................... 6.3 5.2 .7 .2 .2

Other fields....................................................................... 9.1 6.1 .3 .4 2.3

Percent distribution

All fields................................................................... 100.0 65.7 20.5 9.0 4.8

Engineering and natural science....................................... 100.0 49.3 37.3 10.4 3.1

Engineering................................................................. 100.0 30.5 60.3 5.9 3.3

Physical science......................................................... 100.0 40.3 48.0 9.0 2.7

Chemistry............................................................. 100.0 31.9 59.2 7.1 1.8

Physics................................................................. 100.0 46.8 36.2 12.2 4.8

Life science............................................................... 100.0 68.5 10.7 17.3 3.4

Mathematics............................................................... 100.0 76.2 16.8 4.2 2.7

Social science and psychology........................................ 100.0 75.1 4.2 13.9 6.8

Psychology................................................................. 100.0 58.6 2.9 28.2 10.3

Arts and humanities......................................................... 100.0 94.6 1.6 1.3 2.5

Education........................................................................ 100.0 86.2 1.5 5.2 7.1

Business and commerce.................................................. 100.0 82.8 11.0 3.1 3.1

Other fields...................................................................... 100.0 67.2 3.1 4.3 25.3

NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding.

Psychology Ph. D. requirements, which are expected to increase nearly 52 percent, will rise most 

rapidly in government where more than one-fourth 

of the jobs in 1985 are projected to be found. Growing nearly as rapidly, psychology degree holders employed by educational institutions may constitute 

nearly three-fifths of the 1985 requirements.

Demand for arts and humanities Ph. D .’s, nearly 

all of whom are expected to be employed by educational institutions, is projected to increase by 27 

percent to 49,400.

Demand for education Ph. D .’s is expected to increase by 36 percent to 79,200. Although requirements in industry and business and in nonprofit 

organizations are projected to double and triple, 

respectively, nearly 9 of every 10 are expected to be 

working for educational institutions.

Demand for business and commerce Ph. D .’s is 

projected to grow to 6,300, an increase of only 18 

percent. Although industry’s demand for these is 

expected to grow, only about 1 of every 10 is expected to work for industry and business. Most

are projected still to be in educational institutions.

Demand for doctorate holders in all other fields 

is projected to increase by 37 percent to 9,100. 

About two-thirds of these probably will be needed 

by educational institutions. One-fourth are expected 

to be working for nonprofit organizations.

Owing to the variation in the projected growth 

rates among individual fields, the distribution of 

Ph. D .’s in 1985, by broad field, is expected to 

change somewhat from the distribution in 1972, as 

shown in the following tabulation:

Distribution of Ph. D.’s,

________ by field_______

1972 1985

Total, all fields................ 100.0 100.0

Engineering and

natural science.....................

Social science and

48.3 51.3

psychology............................. 19.1 18.4

Arts and humanities................. 11.6 10.4

Education................................ 17.4 16.7

Business and commerce.......... 1.6 1.3

Other fields.............................. 2.0 1.9

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Field Total

demand

Growth

Replacement

Total needs Educational

upgrading

Employment

expansion

All fields................................................................... 187,400 140,300 30,800 109,500 47,100

Engineering and natural science...................................... 100,100 82,000 19,900 62,100 18,100

Engineering................................................................. 29,300 28,100 5,500 22,600 1,200

Physical science......................................................... 33,400 28,000 8,900 19,100 5,400

Chemistry.............................................................. 14,800 14,600 7,100 7,500 200

Physics.................................................................. 7,700 6,700 1,100 5,600 1,000

Life science................................................................ 27,600 18,600 3,400 15,200 9,000

Mathematics............................................................... 10,000 7,400 2,100 5,300 2,600

Social science and psychology........................................ 35,200 23,300 4,900 18,400 11,900

Psychology.................................................................. 15,000 11,700 4,100 7,600 3,300

Arts and humanities.......................................................... 19,700 10,600 200 10,400 9,100

Education......................................................................... 26,800 20,900 4,000 16,900 5,900

Business and commerce................................................... 2,000 1,000 300 900 1,000

Other fields....................................................................... 3,600 2,500 1,700 800 1,100

NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding.

Job openings Alternative projections

Job openings for Ph. D.’s are created by either 

occupational growth or the need to replace Ph. D .’s 

who will retire, die, or otherwise leave the labor 

force. The projections in this report indicate a need 

for about 187,000 doctorate holders over the 1972-85 

period, 140,000 for growth and 47,000 for replacements (table 9).

Openings resulting from growth are based on an 

analysis of trends in the proportion of workers in 

each occupational field holding a doctorate. (See 

appendix for a discussion of the projection method.) 

About four-fifths of these job ^openings stem from 

growth in the number of workers in each occupation. 

The remainder result from the educational upgrading 

of jobs and reflect the projected 1972-85 increase in 

the proportion of workers in each field holding a 

doctorate.

Replacement needs are estimated by applying an 

average annual separation rate to the projected 

average annual employment between 1972 and 1985. 

The separation rate for Ph. D .’s, 0.89 percent,9 was 

computed as a part of this study. (See appendix.)

Growth and replacement needs also may be expressed as annual openings for Ph. D. workers. 

Approximately 14,000 doctorate holders will be required on the average each year between 1972 and 

1985, of which one-fourth will replace Ph. D. workers who retire, die, or leave the labor force for 

other reasons.

The job projections described earlier are based on 

continuation of past trends and certain assumptions 

about the ratio of Ph. D .’s to all workers for each 

occupation in each major economic sector. However, 

many factors, including changing wage differentials 

and changing technology, could alter these patterns. 

It is desirable to know, therefore, the effect of 

changes in these ratios on manpower needs for 

Ph. D .’s.

Alternative projections were developed for 4-year 

college and university faculties, the sector of the 

economy employing the most Ph. D .’s. The basic 

projections imply that about 71 percent of annual 

faculty openings would be job openings for Ph. 

D .’s. Thus, of the estimated 8,250 annual openings 

for faculty over the 1972-85 period, 5,900 would be 

for Ph. D .’s. However, the proportion could rise if 

greater numbers of doctorate workers were available 

at lower relative salaries, and, consequently, colleges 

and universities hired more Ph. D .’s. Increases of 5 

percentage points to 76 percent and 10 percentage 

points to 81 percent would raise annual openings as 

shown in the following tabulation. Over the 13-year 

period, job openings for an additional 5,200 Ph. D .’s 

on college and university faculties would result from 

each 5-percentage point increase in the proportion of 

new hires with a doctoral degree.

9 This rate is somewhat lower than comparable rates for all

Percent of new hires

with doctorates

Annual faculty

openings

Annual Ph. D.

requirements

college and university teachers (2.68 percent) or for all physicists 71 8,250 5,900

(1.07 percent) because the age distributions of Ph. D .’s in both 76 8,250 6,300

1972 and 1985 are skewed toward workers under the age of 40. 81 8,250 6,700

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If 81 percent of all new faculty hires for colleges 

and universities between 1972 and 1985 have doctorates, by 1985 the percentage of total faculty with 

doctoral degrees would rise to about 67 percent. As 

may be seen from the following tabulation, large 

increases in the proportion of new hires with doctorates would produce small changes in the percentage of the faculty with doctorates because the 

ratio of annual openings to total faculty averages 

only 2 percent between 1972 and 1985. Even if 100 

percent of all new hires have doctorates, the percentage of total faculty with doctorates would rise to 

only 73 percent in 1985.

Percent of annual new

hires with doctorates (1972-85)

Percent of total faculty

with doctorates (1985)

71

81

85

100

65

67

68

73

Increasing the proportion of Ph. D.’s employed 

by community colleges probably will not have much 

effect either. The projections developed in this report indicate that 10 percent of the projected 11,000 

annual new hires by junior colleges will have doctorates. For each increase of 5 percentage points, 

only 550 additional doctorates would be needed each 

year. Thus, these institutions probably will have little 

effect on the supply-demand balance of Ph. D.’s.

Supply

The supply estimates in this report are based on 

the U.S. Office of Education’s projections of doctorate degrees. Projections for the first 5 years, by 

field, are based primarily on enrollments for advanced degrees the previous fall and the proportion 

of these enrollments that historically have resulted 

in doctorates.10 This method is valid since anyone 

who will earn a doctorate in the next 5 years probably is enrolled in graduate school.11 Projections of 

Ph. D. degrees beyond 5 years are based on more 

general demographic characteristics, and assume that 

the percent of the age group getting a doctorate will 

continue to increase, but at a slower rate than in 

the past.

In the past, population growth, increased sources 

of student financial support, and other factors combined to produce a rapidly growing number of new 

doctorate degree recipients each year. In the future,

10 This procedure was first initiated in 1971.

11 Report on the CGS Doctorate Production Survey (Washington: Council of Graduate Schools, May 3, 1972).

Field Number Percent

All fields................................................................... 583.400

224.400

50.300

60.300

25,800

19,900

92,200

21,600

100.0

Engineering and natural science....................................... 38.5

Engineering................................................................. 8.6

Physical science.............................................. 10.3

Chemistry.............................................................. 4.4

Physics.................................................................. 3.4

Life science................................................................ 15.8

Mathematics............................................................... 3.7

Social science and psychology......................................... 101,800

37,700

79,600

148,800

19,200

9,700

17.5

Psychology.................................................................. 6.5

Arts and humanities.......................................................... 13.6

Education.................................................................... 25.5

Business and commerce................................................... 3.3

Other fields.................. .................................................... 1.7

NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding.

even though the school age population will not continue to grow at past rates, the impact of rising 

educational aspirations, as measured by the trend of 

rising proportions of the college age population who 

complete college and attend graduate school, indicates a 3-percent annual increase in the number of 

new doctorates between 1972 and 1985.

Not all new Ph. D. recipients, however, enter the 

U.S. labor force. Some foreign nationals return to 

their homelands and some U.S. citizens choose to 

work overseas. On the other hand, some persons 

who earn Ph. D .’s overseas (or who originally were 

trained in the U.S. and returned to their homelands) 

may immigrate. Estimates of the first group were 

subtracted, and of the second group were added to 

the Office of Education projections. After these adjustments, about 580,000 Ph. D .’s would be seeking 

to enter the U.S. labor force between 1972 and

Table 11. supply and demand, 1985

(in thousands)

Field New supply,

1972-85

Openings,

1972-85 Difference

All fields................................... 583.4 187.4 396.0

Engineering and natural science...... 224.4 100.1 124.3

Engineering................................. 50.3 29.3 21.0

Physical science........................ 60.3 33.4 26.9

Chemistry.............................. 25.8 14.8 11.0

Physics.................................. 19.9 7.7 12.2

Life science............................... 92.2 27.6 64.6

Mathematics............................... 21.6 10.0 11.6

Social science and psychology........ 101.8 35.2 66.6

Psychology................................. 37.7 15.0 22.7

Arts and humanities......................... 79.6 19.7 59.9

Education......................................... 148.8 26.8 122.0

Business and commerce.................. 19.2 2.0 17.2

Other fields....................................... 9.7 3.6 6.1

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1985. About 70 percent of them will have earned 

degrees during that period (table 10).

Based on these projections, nearly two-fifths of 

new doctoral workers over the 1972-85 period would 

be in engineering and natural science; one-fourth in 

education; one-sixth in social science and psychology; 

one-eighth in arts and humanities; and small proportions in business and commerce and other fields.

Supply-Demand Balance

According to the projections of requirements presented earlier, job openings for doctoral degree 

workers between 1972 and 1985 would total about 

187,000. The available supply of new Ph. D .’s during the same period, however, is estimated at about

580,000 persons. Therefore, if present trends continue 

in patterns of use of Ph. D .’s relative to other workers and in the proportion of persons obtaining doctoral degrees, by 1985 more than twice as many 

Ph. D .’s would be available for work in Ph. D.-type 

jobs as there are jobs (table 11).

The gap between the prospective supply and requirements for new Ph. D .’s varies by field. For 

example, in physics, the supply would be about half 

again more than requirements while in mathematics, 

only about one-eighth more. In contrast, projected 

supply may be twice as high in life science or social 

science and psychology; 3 times in arts and humanities; 4l/2 times in education; and 8V2 times in business and commerce. However, in many cases the 

magnitude of numerical differences is more noteworthy.

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Chapter III. Implications

For many years, society seemed to have an insatiable demand for new doctoral degree holders. Beginning in the mid-1960’s, however, observers began 

cautioning that perhaps the situation would change.12 

This report supports the conclusions reached by 

those anticipating a changing supply-demand relationship in the 1970’s through the mid-1980’s. Even 

under the most extreme alternative projections, supply would greatly exceed demand. This chapter 

focuses on some of the implications of the imbalance 

in this relationship and of the groups primarily 

affected: (1) individuals, (2) universities, (3) other 

employers, and (4) society.

Individuals. Even with the oversupply projected, it 

is unlikely that unemployment of Ph. D .’s will be 

high relative to other groups in the labor force. Instead, underemployment—defined as employment in 

a job requiring less skill than the worker has acquired—with its inherent job dissatisfaction, may be 

widespread.

When persons with more education take jobs previously held by individuals with less education, 

bumping—a chain reaction felt most on the low 

end—is set off through the economy from the highest 

level. In the future, workers without a college degree 

will have less chance than in the past of advancing 

to professional positions and to higher level positions in sales, managerial, and some clerical and 

service occupations. Competition for entry jobs may 

be limited and few jobs may be available.

As a result, salary differentials paid to Ph. D. 

holders may narrow, although preliminary evidence 

is mixed. For the years 1967-68 through 1972-73, 

information from the College Placement Council’s 

survey of salary offers to new degree recipients shows 

no clear trend toward either widening or narrowing 

of the differentials between bachelor’s degree salaries

,2Allan M. Cartter, “ A New Look at the Supply of College

Teachers,” Educational Record, Vol. 44, Summer 1965; Allan

M. Cartter, ‘‘Scientific Manpower for 1970-1985,” Science, 172,

Apr. 9, 1971; Dael Wolfe and Charles V. Kidd, ‘‘The Future

Market for Ph. D .’s,” Science, 172, Aug. 27, 1971; and the

Carnegie Commission’s College Graduates and Jobs (New York:

McGraw-Hill, 1973).

and doctorate degree salaries. For example, between 

1967-68 and 1972-73, salary offers to new physics 

graduates increased by about 16 percent for those 

with the bachelor’s degree; for those with the 

Ph. D., the increase was about 14 percent. For 

mathematics graduates, comparable figures were 14 

percent and 20 percent.

Universities. For universities, the availability of 

funds to support graduate students is a major factor 

underlying the Ph. D. manpower situation. During 

the peak academic year of 1967-68, for example, 

about 51,000 graduate students held federally supported fellowships or traineeships, many for 3 years 

of study. By the 1972-73 academic year, the number 

of students funded in this manner had fallen to 

fewer than 25,000. By early 1974, the estimate was 

6,600 for the 1974-75 academic year, mostly for only 

1 year of graduate education.

Between 1974 and 1978, a similar drop is expected in the number of graduate students supported by the current G.I. Bill, even though the 

number increased 6 percent from fiscal 1972 to fiscal 

1973. However, because fewer persons have been 

discharged since 1970 and because veterans have 

only 10 years in which to use their educational benefits, a turning point in graduate enrollments may 

occur in the late 1970’s or early 1980’s.

The effect of this situation on Ph. D. training and 

employment in colleges and universities is difficult 

to predict. On one hand, if government funds for 

graduate education do not become more readily available, universities may find it economically inefficient 

to operate as many doctoral programs as at present. 

Neighboring institutions may consolidate duplicate 

programs and eliminate others with limited appeal.

On the other hand, the overall effect of Federal 

support on graduate enrollments is not clearly known. 

Possibly, students may obtain funds from other 

sources, such as employment or family, and reductions in enrollment could be slight. Some students, 

however, may decide not to go on to graduate 

school as the marginal advantage of having a doctoral degree declines. New baccalaureate graduates 

may decide that the income lost while in graduate

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school is greater than the possible additional lifetime 

earnings with a doctorate.

Doctoral study programs may need to be restructured. With about one-half of all Ph. D .’s 

teaching in classrooms, more emphasis may be given 

to developing teaching skills. At present, nearly all 

doctorates are research oriented with relatively few 

doctoral candidates pursuing the Doctor of Arts 

degree.

Other employers. Employers may be more selective 

in hiring and advancement practices. They also may 

find they must be selective in hiring Ph. D .’s for 

work other than what has traditionally been done by 

Ph. D .’s lest morale problems develop. Job dissatisfaction may increase among workers at all levels if 

educational requirements get upgraded without coincident upgrading of job responsibilities. Employers, 

therefore, may have to consider ways to restructure 

jobs to make use of Ph. D .’s.

Employers may be encouraged to restructure jobs 

if salary differentials do narrow between Ph. D .’s 

and other college graduates. Relatively lower Ph. D. 

salaries might make it more attractive to hire increased numbers of Ph. D .’s.13

Society. Finally, society—the Nation—must evaluate 

and weigh the purpose of graduate education against 

other national priorities, before deciding how much 

to spend in support of graduate education.14 Also, 

the relationship between national input for graduate

education and the supply of and demand for 

Ph. D .’s must be determined. During the 1950’s and 

early 1960’s, when the Nation faced a shortage of 

doctoral manpower, support was forthcoming. Now 

when an oversupply of doctoral manpower is perceived, should support for graduate education be cut 

back?

Before the Nation can decide these questions, it 

must determine what happens if the continued rapid 

growth of the manpower pool of Ph. D .’s is actively 

discouraged. Will trained manpower be available to 

carry on the progress of this Nation? Will Ph. D .’s 

be trained in fields and specialties needed? What if a 

national emergency requires manpower that is not 

available?

This report has attempted to provide data that can 

serve as a basis for the policymakers and planners 

who will be concerned with these problems.

13 Some researchers believe that the classical price system reaction to manpower surpluses has already begun in the Ph. D.

labor market. Freeman and Breneman, for example, estimate

that relative starting salaries of Ph. D. scientists and engineers

fell during the 1969-73 period. They feel that a continuation of

this trend would reestablish equilibrium between Ph. D. supply

and demand. See Richard B. Freeman and David W. Breneman,

Forecasting the Ph. D. Labor Market: Pitfalls for Policy, Technical Report No. Two (Washington: National Board on Graduate Education, April 1974).

14A comprehensive discussion of this is contained in Graduate Education: Purposes, Problems, and Potential, Technical

Report No. One (Washington: National Board on Graduate

Education, November 1972).

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Appendix: Data Sources and Statistical Methods

Data sources

The Doctorate Records Files of the National 

Academy of Sciences provided most of the data for 

the 1972 employment estimate. These records, which 

begin with 1920, have become progressively more 

detailed with the passage of time. Information is 

supplied by all doctoral candidates in all fields 

shortly before graduation. Also helpful was Careers

of Ph. D .’s, Academic Versus Nonacademic (NAS 

Publication 1577).

To augment these data, other sources of information were used. Principal among these were two 

National Science Foundation Reports, American

Science Manpower, 1970 (NSF 71-45), and Scientists

and Engineers from Abroad, 1962-64 (NSF 67-3).

Variables used to project requirements levels are 

from the Bureau’s economic model for 1985 as published in the Monthly Labor Review, December 

1973, Vol. 96, No. 12, reprinted as The U.S. Economy in 1985: A Summary of BLS Projections, Bulletin 1809 (1974). Additional independent variables 

were taken from the U.S. Office of Education projections of earned degrees and faculty size.

Table A-l. Current employment of Ph. D.’s, 1972

(in thousands)

Insight into the proportion of faculty members 

having the doctorate and working in elementary and 

secondary schools, junior colleges, or 4-year colleges 

and universities was gained from two Office of 

Education studies, both titled Numbers and Characteristics of Employees of Institutions of Higher Education—for 1966 and 1967. Alan E. Bayer’s College

and University Faculty: A Statistical Description and 

Teaching Faculty in Academe: 1972-73 helped to 

further delineate the faculty information.

Estimated new supply of doctorate holders for the 

1972-85 period was based on the Office of Education’s 1973 doctoral degree projections by field. For 

the first 5 years of this period, the Office of Education relates its projections directly to enrollments 

for advanced degrees the previous fall. For the 

second half of the period, projections are related to 

more general demographic characteristics.

Statistical methods

A. Current employment, 1972

For purposes of this study, it has been assumed 

that Ph. D .’s employed in 1972 earned doctorates

Field

Gross

doctorates

awarded,

1932-72

Losses to

foreign

employers,

1932-72

Losses from

deaths and

retirements,

1932-72

Additions

from

immigration

(net),

1932-72

Employment

of doctorate

holders,

1972

All fields.............................................................. 390.1 26.3 40.2 11.0 334.6

Engineering and natural science................................. 187.4 15.3 19.0 8.6 161.7

Engineering............................................................ 37.3 2.8 3.8 .3 31.0

Physical science.................................................... 70.1 5.3 7.2 6.1 63.8

Chemistry......................................................... 39.9 2.0 4.2 2.2 35.9

Physics............................................................. 22.4 1.3 2.3 3.9 22.6

Life science........................................................... 66.0 6.4 6.6 1.4 54.5

Mathematics.......................................................... 13.9 .9 1.4 .8 12.4

Social science and psychology.................................... 75.0 4.7 7.8 1.3 63.8

Psychology............................................................. 25.7 .8 2.7 .6 22.7

Arts and humanities..................................................... 44.9 1.9 4.8 .6 38.8

Education.................................................................... 68.0 2.6 7.2 (1 ) 58.3

Business and commerce............................................. 6.3 .5 .6 .2 5.4

Other fields................................................................. 8.5 1.4 .8 .3 6.7

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between 1932 and 1972. Thus, a 30-year old doctorate recipient in 1932 would be 70 years old in 

1972.

The Doctorate Records Files provided data for 

estimates of the total number of doctorates awarded 

by field. Persons involved in post doctoral study or 

training in 1971 and 1972 were considered employed 

in colleges and universities. From these gross figures, 

estimates were subtracted of new doctorates who leave 

this country to work for foreign employers or to 

return to their native lands. For the years 1958 

through 1972, these data are available from the 

Doctorate Records Files. Estimates of these losses 

for earlier years were developed on the basis of the 

reported trend (table A-l).

Losses due to deaths, retirements, and other factors were then calculated in 5-year specific age 

group cohorts. The cohorts were advanced in 5-year 

periods through the 41 years. Since several researchers 

have noted that the working life patterns of female 

Ph. D .’s closely resemble the career patterns of their 

male peers,1 male separation rates2 were used for 

the whole group.

A final adjustment was made for net immigration 

of persons with doctorates from foreign universities. 

A National Science Foundation (NSF) report on 

foreign scientists and engineers was the basis of 

these estimates.3

No adjustments w •„ made for unemployment 

since such data are available for doctorate holders 

for only 2 years, 1970 and 1971.4

Information on employer and primary work activity of new doctorate recipients is available from the 

Doctorate Records Files beginning in 1957. Since 

about 70 percent of the doctorates employed in 1972 

received degrees after 1960, a distribution of activity 

by employer based on data for this group is a good 

indication of the characteristics of the whole group. 

Averages which were computed by field for the 15- 

year period became the basis for distributing the 

1972 Ph. D. pool among the several employer 

types and primary work activities. The final distributions compared favorably with the 1970 NSF 

National Register.

J See, for example, John K. Folger, Helen S. Astin, and

Alan E. Bayer, Human Resources and Higher Education (New

York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1970), pp. 288-94.

2 Tomorrow’s Manpower Needs, Supplement 4, Bulletin 1606

(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1974).

3 Scientists and Engineers from Abroad, 1962-64, NSF 67-3

(National Science Foundation, 1967).

4 Unemployment Rates and Employment Characteristics for

Scientists and Engineers, 1971, NSF 72-307 (National Science

Foundation, 1972).

Justification for using reports of “ first post 

doctoral employer” data to represent lifetime career 

patterns is found in the National Research Council’s 

(NRC) second report on a follow-up study of 10,000 

doctorate holders from the classes of 1935, 1940, 

1945, 1950, 1955, and 1960.5 NRC found that onehalf of the Ph. D .’s spent their careers in academic 

employment and one-fourth in nonacademic employment. The remaining one-fourth were divided about 

equally between those who switched from academic 

to nonacademic jobs and those who switched in the 

opposite direction.

After the total number of separations had been 

deducted, an age distribution remained for those 

employed in 1972 (table A-2). Based on this age 

array and 1-year specific age group male separation 

rates, an annual average separation rate of 0.8185 

percent for doctorate holders during the 1932-72 

period was computed.

B. Requirements, 1985

In order to have some basis for projecting trends 

and patterns of Ph. D. workers, employment patterns 

were developed for the 6 preceding years—1966, 

1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, and 1971. The method used 

was exactly the same as explained earlier for the 

1972 estimate. However, because employer data were 

not available until 1957 and because more new 

doctorates are included in the computed average at 

the end of the period than at any of its other 

points, estimates for 1966 are less reliable than 

those for 1972. This “ time series,” including 1972, 

is shown in table A-3.

The greatest numbers of Ph. D .’s are employed by 

educational institutions—a broad classification including 4-year colleges and universities, com m unity colleges, and elementary and secondary schools. To 

project future demand in these three areas, it was 

first necessary to break them out of the time series 

estimates. The Doctorate Records Files distinguish 

only “ colleges and universities” and “ elementary 

and secondary schools.” Distributions forallPh.D .’s 

in educational institutions were based on estimates 

in two Office of Education reports.6 Alan Bayer’s 

study provided a basis for developing community 

college estimates.7

5Careers of Ph. D .’s Academic Versus Nonacademic, Publication 1577 (National Academy of Sciences, 1968).

6 Numbers and Characteristics of Employees of Institutions of

Higher Education, 1966 and 1967 editions (U.S. Department of

Health, Education, and Welfare, Office of Education).

7 Alan E. Bayer, College and University Faculty: A Statistical

Description, Vol. 5, No. 5, (Washington: American Council on

Education, 1970).

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Age group Number

(in thousands)

Percent

Total............. 323.6 100.0

25-34...................... 179.9 55.6

3544...................... 91.2 28.2

45-54...................... 32.7 10.1

55-64 ..................... 17.6 5.4

65 and over............ 2.2 .7

These ratios were converted to numerical estimates 

and applied to faculty data from the Office of Education to produce ratios of Ph. D .’s to total faculty. 

From these ratios, which were projected to 1985, 

numerical estimates were developed. Subsequently, 

these estimates were used as controls for the projections by field of Ph. D .’s in educational institutions.

The “ time series” observations became the basis 

for developing trend lines and projections in each 

field for each employer. Generally, the independent 

variables were employment requirements projections 

developed in the Bureau’s basic projection model 

for 1985 and published in The U.S. Economy 

in 1985, BLS Bulletin 1809. For example, Ph. D .’s 

in engineering and natural science were related to 

BLS projections of engineers and scientists, by field 

and industry. Other Ph. D .’s in industry, government, and nonprofit organizations were related to 

total workers in closely related occupational groups, 

e.g., social science was related to social scientists.

Table A-3. Estimated employment of Ph. D.’s, by field, 19G6-72

(in thousands)

Field 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

All fields........ 197.4 214.8 234.6 257.1 280.2 298.0 334.6

Engineering and

natural science.... 97.5 106.5 116.1 127.1 138.1 145.6 161.7

Engineering...... 14.9 17.0 19.2 22.1 25.1 27.0 31.0

Physical

science.......... 42.0 '45.3 48.9 52.7 56.1 58.5 63.8

Chemistry.... 26.0 27.7 29.7 31.6 32.2 33.1 35.9

Physics....... 12.4 13.5 14.8 16.2 19.4 20.6 22.6

Life science..... 34.1 36.8 39.7 43.3 46.6 49.0 54.5

Mathematics.... 6;6 7.4 8.3 9.1 10.2 11.1 12.4

Social science and

psychology.......... 39.4 42.6 46.2/ 50.7 54.8 57.6 63.8

Psychology....... 13.3 14.5 15.8 17.3 18.8 20.1 22.7

Arts and

humanities.......... 22.7 24.5 26.7 29.0 31.2 33.9 38.8

Education.............. 31.2 34.1 37.6 41.5 46.5 50.4 58.3

Business and

commerce........... 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.5 5.4

Other fields............ 4.0 4.4 4.5 5.2 5.5 6.1 6.7

Table A-4. Percent distribution of Ph. D.’s employed by

educational institutions, 196672

Year Total in all

educational

institutions

4-year colleges

and

universities

Community

colleges

Elementary

and

secondary

schools

1966........... 100.0 92.6 1.6 5.8

1967........... 100.0 92.0 1.8 6.2

1968........... 100.0 91.5 1.9 6.7

1969........... 100.0 90.9 2.0 7.1

1970........... 100.0 90.0 2.4 7.6

1971........... 100.0 90.1 2.9 7.1

1972........... 100.0 89.8 3.3 6.9

Projections of Ph. D .’s in colleges and universities 

were tied to degree projections for all levels in the 

same field and were controlled by the previously 

projected total faculty estimates. The resultant numerical estimates were aggregated.

C. Openings, 1972-85

Projected openings during the 1972-85 period arise 

from two components, growth and replacements. 

Growth was determined by subtracting 1972 employment from 1985 projected requirements:

1985 requirements.................................................................................474,900

1972 employment................................................................................. 334,600

1972-85 growth............................................................................... 140,300

1972-85 annual average growth...................................................... 10,800

The second component of openings—replacement 

needs—was estimated for the 1972-85 period in the 

same manner as earlier for the 1932-72 period. A 

1985 age distribution was computed, along with a 

1985 annual average separation rate of 0.9739 percent (table A-5).

Since replacement needs usually are computed on 

an average employment figure or time period midpoint estimate, the 1972 and 1985 annual average 

separation rates were averaged to produce an estiTable A-5. Estimated age distribution of Ph. D.’s, 1985

Age group Number

(in thousands)

Percent

Total............. 474.9 100.0

25-34...................... 117.3 24.7

3544...................... 204.2 43.0

45-54...................... 109.7 23.1

55-64...................... 33.7 7.1

65 and over............ 10.0 2.1

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(in thousands)

Field

U.S. Office

of Education

projected

degrees,

1972-73 to

1984-85

Losses to1

foreign

employers

Additions

from

immigration

Estimated

supply,

1985

All fields........ 609.1 38.7 13.0 583.4

Engineering and

natural science.... 233.6 19.4 10.2 224.4

Engineering...... 53.9 4.0 .3 50.3

Physical

science.......... 57.4 4.4 7.3 60.3

Chemistry.... 24.4 1.2 2.6 25.8

Physics....... 16.3 1.0 4.6 19.9

Life science..... 100.2 9.6 1.6 92.2

Mathematics.... 22.0 1.4 1.0 21.6

Social science and

psychology.......... 106.9 6.6 1.5 101.8

Psychology....... 38.3 1.3 .7 37.7

Arts and

humanities.......... 82.4 3.4 .7 79.6

Education.............. 154.5 5.8 .1 148.8

Business and

commerce........... 20.6 1.6 .2 19.2

Other fields............ 11.1 1.8 .4 9.7

NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding.

mated separation rate of 0.8962 percent for the

1972-85 period.8 Thus:

1972-85 midpoint employment...................................................404,750

1972-85 midpoint annual average

separation rate........................................................................ 0.8962 percent

1972-85 annual average separations.......................................... 3,600

D. Supply Estimates

The supply estimates are based on the Office of

Education’s projections of earned doctorates developed in 1973.9 Based on historical data from the

Doctorate Records Files, the projected number of

new doctorate holders who are expected to leave

the United States to work for foreign employers was

subtracted. Increments, by field, have been added

to represent immigration of doctorate holders from

foreign universities. The distribution of immigrants

for 1972-85 was assumed to be the same as for

1932-72 (table A-6).

8For a further discussion of separation rates, see Tomorrow’s Manpower Needs.

9Projections of Educational Statistics to 1982-83, 1973 Edition (U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, 

Office of Education). Projections for 1983-84 and 1984-85 are 

from unpublished materials made available by the Office of 

Education.

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