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                Numerical Examination of Freeway Rear-End Accidents Considering Mechanism of Accident Occurrence
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              Publication External Link:Numerical Examination of Freeway Rear-End Accidents Considering Mechanism of Ac...
                          Abstract:This study applies a microscopic approach for modeling the risk of freeway rear-end accidents by considering the occurrence mechanism of rear-end accidents. The probability of occurrence of a rear-end accident is expressed by the product of the probability of a leading vehicle becoming an obstacle (Po) and the probability of the following drivers failure to avoid a collision (Pf). Both traffic flow and freeway design characteristics are included in the model. Compared with most existing models, this model has two major advantages: 1) it directly considers a drivers response time distribution; and 2) it applies a unique model structure that is capable of modeling the dual impacts of one variable to both Po and Pf. Using observed rear-end accident data in Washington State, this accident risk model is estimated by maximum likelihood using a modified negative binomial regression form. Eight different explanatory variables are found significant in the model. This model is potentially useful for accident risk prediction and safety plan evaluations for freeways.
              Publishing Date:January 2006
                                                  FHWA Program(s):Research
              Safety
              AMRP Program(s):Safety Data and Analysis
              FHWA Activities:Highway Safety Information System
              Subject Area:Safety and Human Factors U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

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