OCS!Study

BOEM!20180017

Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics)

to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic

Final)Report

US)Department)of)Commerce

National)Oceanographic)and)Atmospheric)Administration)

Final,)13 June 2018
DISCLAIMER)

This!study!was!funded,!in!part,!by!the!US!Department!of!the!Interior,!Bureau!of!Ocean!

Energy!Management,!Environmental!Studies!Program,!Washington,!DC,!through!

Interagency!Agreement!Number!M11PG00034 with!the!US!Department!of!Commerce,!

National!Oceanic!and!Atmospheric!Administration,!Office!of!Oceanic!and!Atmospheric!

Research.!!This!report!has!been!technically!reviewed!by!BOEM!and!it!has!been!approved!

for!publication.!The!views!and!conclusions!contained!in!this!document!are!those!of!the!

authors!and!should!not!be!interpreted!as!representing!the!opinions!or!policies!of!the!US!

Government,!nor!does!mention!of!trade!names!or!commercial!products!constitute!

endorsement!or!recommendation!for!use.!!

REPORT)AVAILABILITY

To!download!a!PDF!file!of!this!Alaska!OCS!Region!report,!go!to!the!US!Department!of!the!

Interior,!Bureau!of!Ocean!Energy!Management,!Environmental!Studies!Program!

Information!System!website!and!search!on!OCS!Study!BOEM!20180017.!

This!report!can!be!viewed!at!select!Federal!Depository!Libraries.!It!can!also!be!obtained!

from!the!National!Technical!Information!Service;!the!contact!information!is!below.!!

US!Department!of!Commerce!

National!Technical!Information!Service!

5301!Shawnee!Rd.

Springfield,!VA!22312!!

Phone:!(703)!60506000,!1 (800) 55306847!

Fax:!(703)!60506900!

Website:!http://www.ntis.gov/

CITATION

Moore,!S.E.,!Stabeno,!P.J.,!Sheffield!Guy,!L.M.,!Van!Pelt,!T.I.!!2018.!!Synthesis!of!Arctic!

Research!(SOAR):!Physics!to!Marine!Mammals!in!the!Pacific!Arctic.! US!Dept.!of!the!

Interior,!Bureau!of!Ocean!Energy!Management,!Alaska!OCS!Region,!Anchorage.!OCS!Study!

BOEM!20180017,!61pp.!

2
Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR))

Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)

FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018

Prepared)for:!!Environmental!Studies!Program!

!!Alaska!Outer!Continental!Shelf!Region!

!!Bureau!of!Ocean!Energy!Management!

!!3801!Centerpoint!Drive!Suite!500

!!Anchorage,!Alaska!99503!!

Authors:)

Dr.!Sue!E.!Moore Dr.!Phyllis!J.!Stabeno!! 
 

NMFS/Science!& Technology OAR/Pacific!Marine!Environmental!Laboratory! ! 
 

7600!Sand!Point!Way!NE! ! 7600!Sand!Point!Way!NE! ! 
 

Seattle,!WA!98115! Seattle,!WA!98115! 
 

Sue.Moore@noaa.gov Phyllis.Stabeno@noaa.gov! ! 
 

206052606889 206052606453 
 


 

Lisa!Sheffield!Guy Thomas!Van!Pelt!
 

ARCUS! UW/!JISAO!
 

3535!College!Road,!Suite!101 7600!Sand!Point!Way!NE 
 

Fairbanks,!Alaska!99709 Seattle,!WA!98115!

lisa@arcus.org thomas.vanpelt@noaa.gov 
 

907047401600 907024207725 
 


 


 

Project)Status:))) Completed!

Start)date:) 20!May 2011!

End)date: 15!June!2018 !!!!!!!!! !

Project)Duration: 7!years

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Contents

List!of!Figures!..................................................................................................................................................................v 
 

List!of!Tables..............................................................................................................................................................................v 
 

Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................................!6!
 

Background ....................................................................................................................................................................................!7 
 

Objectives!and!methods!............................................................................................................................................10 
 

Objectives.....................................................................................................................................................................................10 
 

Methods ........................................................................................................................................................................................10 
 

Task!framework....................................................................................................................................................................10 
 

Task!detail ...............................................................................................................................................................................11 
 

SOAR!Phase!1!and!SOAR!Phase!2 ..................................................................................................................................13 
 

Results..............................................................................................................................................................................13 
 

Foundational!tasks:!Science!steering!committee!and!workshop.........................................................................13 
 

The!SOAR!Science!steering!committee .......................................................................................................................13 
 

SOAR!Workshop!–!March!2012......................................................................................................................................14 
 

Science!product!and!communication!tasks ...................................................................................................................16 
 

Peer0reviewed!publications!—!Phase!1......................................................................................................................16

Peer0reviewed!publications!—!Phase!2......................................................................................................................18

presentations!and!posters!at!scientific!meetings...................................................................................................20

Other!communication!of!synthesis!approach!and!products..............................................................................20

Synthesis!summary!and!discussion!.....................................................................................................................20 
 

SOAR!Phase!I...............................................................................................................................................................................20 
 

SOAR!Phase!II.............................................................................................................................................................................34 
 

Overall!SOAR!Context!and!conclusion .............................................................................................................................44 
 

Literature!cited.............................................................................................................................................................46 
 

Appendix!A!–!List!of!SOAR!2012!workshop!attendees................................................................................54 
 

Appendix!B!–!List!of!SOAR!contributors!and!institutions!..........................................................................56 
 

Appendix!C!–!List!of!SOAR!contributor!presentations!at!scientific!meetings,!workshops,!and!

webinars..........................................................................................................................................................................58

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List)of)Figures

Figure!1.!!Map!of!study!area,!showing!principal!currents!(red!lines)!and!mean!sea0ice!maximum!

(spring)!and!minimum!(fall)!extent!(Moore!and!Stabeno,!2015). .....................................................................!7

Figure!2.!!Cover!of!the!first!SOAR!special!issue,!Progress!in!Oceanography!Vol.!136......................................16 
 

Figure!3.!!Highlights!of!recent!biophysical!changes!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!marine!ecosystem.......................21 
 

Figure!4.!!Generalized!conceptual!model!depicting!the!influence!of!sea!ice!on!pelagic0benthic!coupling!

on!Pacific!Arctic!continental!shelves. ..........................................................................................................................24

Figure!5.!Marine!birds!and!mammals!are!upper!trophic!level!(UTL)!species!that!reflect!ecosystem

alterations!by!changes!in!habitat!use!(extrinsic)!and!body!condition!(intrinsic),!revealing!

fundamental!changes!in!marine!ecosystems. ..........................................................................................................27

Figure!6.!!Components!of!the!Arctic!Marine!Pulses!(AMP)!conceptual!model!–!linking!pelagic0benthic

coupling!and!advective!models!to!derive!a!seasonal!model!for!the!Pacific!Arctic!framed!by!

contiguous!domains. ...........................................................................................................................................................32

Figure!7.!The!Arctic!Marine!Pulses!(AMP)!conceptual!model,!depicting!seasonal!biophysical!pulses!in!

three!ecological!domains!across!a!latitudinal!gradient!over!the!course!of!an!annual!cycle!in!the!

Pacific!Arctic!region!(Moore!and!Stabeno,!2015). .................................................................................................!33

Figure!8.!!Papers!comprising!the!forthcoming!2018!2nd!SOAR!special!issue!(to!be!published!in!Deep0

Sea!Research!Part!II),!identified!by!lead!author!and!organized!by!ecological!domains!that!frame!

the!Arctic!Marine!Pulses!model!(Moore!et!al.,!in!press)......................................................................................35

List)of)Tables

Table!1.!!List of!Science!Steering!Committee!members!and!institutions..............................................................13 
 

Table!2.!List!of!SOAR!SSC!Teleconferences!and!in0person!meetings......................................................................14 
 

Table!3.!!Papers!included!in!the!2015!SOAR!special!issue!of!Progress in'Oceanography.!..............................17 
 

Table!4.!!Papers!to!appear!in!the!SOAR!2nd!Phase!special!issue in!Deep'Sea'Research'Part'II. ..................18 
 


 


 

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INTRODUCTION

Changes!to!the!physical!environment!of!the!U.S.!Arctic!Outer!Continental!Shelf!(OCS)!are!

driving!shifts!in!the!distribution!and!behavior!of!a!number!of!protected!marine!mammal!

species!that!inhabit!those!waters.!!The!same!species!may!be!affected!by!oil!and!gas!activities!

within!OCS!Planning!Areas,!with!strong!potential!for!deleterious!interactions!between!natural!

and!human!induced!phenomena.!!Environmental!regulations!(e.g.,!NEPA,!the!ESA,!and!the

MMPA),!require!the!Bureau!of!Ocean!Energy!Management!(BOEM)!to!evaluate!whether!and!

how!federal!actions!associated!with!oil and!gas!development!may!affect!these!protected!

species!and!the!marine!environment!on!which!they!depend.!!Information!on!ocean!circulation!

and!hydrography!is!useful!for!these!evaluations,!as!well!as!for!input!into!models!used!to!

predict!the!outcome!of!oil!spills.!!!However,!physics!alone!cannot!predict!how!protected!

species!and!the!marine!ecosystems!upon!which!they!depend!will!respond!to!natural!and!

anthropogenic!forcing.!!Given!recent!investments!by!BOEM,!other!federal!agencies!(e.g.!NOAA,!

USGS,!NSF),!and the!oil!and!gas industry!in!interdisciplinary!biological!and!oceanographic!

research!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!region!(PAR),!a!synthesis!of!results!of!completed!and!ongoing!

studies!will!help!to!inform!management!decision0makers!and!to!guide!future!research!

activities.

The!"Synthesis!of!Arctic!Research!(SOAR):!Physics!to!Marine!Mammals!in!the!Pacific!Arctic"!

project!provides!a!framework!for!a!synthesis!of!scientific!information!drawn!from!completed!

and!ongoing!marine!research!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!region.!!The SOAR!project!aims!to!increase!

scientific!understanding!of!the!relationships!among!oceanographic!conditions,!benthic!

organisms,!lower!trophic!prey!species!(forage!fish!and!zooplankton),!and!marine!mammal!

distribution!and!behavior!in!the!PAR,!with!particular!emphasis!on!the!northeastern!Chukchi!

Sea.!!SOAR!further!aims!to!enhance!our!capability!to!predict!future!changes!in!oceanographic!

features,!such!as!currents,!upwelling,!and!ice!leads,!and!associated!changes!in!the!behavior!of

marine!mammals!and!their!prey!in!the!region,!and!to!effectively!transmit!findings!of!synthesis!

activities!to!resource!managers,!local!Arctic!residents,!national!and!international!science!

societies!and!the!general!public.!

In!this!report,!we!provide!detail!on!the!background,!methods,!and!results!of!the!SOAR!project,!

and!summarize!the!scientific!outcomes!across!the!first!and!second!phases!of!SOAR.!

!!

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BACKGROUND 
 

The!Pacific!Arctic!region!comprises!waters!north!of!St.!Matthew Island!(60°!N!latitude)!in!the!

northern!Bering,!Chukchi,!Beaufort,!and!East!Siberian!seas!(Grebmeier!et!al.!2010).!!The!

region!is!an!in0flow!system!to!the!Arctic!(Carmack!et!al.!2006),!with!three!distinct!water!

masses!flowing!north!through!Bering!Strait,!then!bathymetrically!channeled!across!the!

Chukchi!Sea!shelf!and!into!the!Beaufort!Sea!basin!(Fig.!1).!!The!annual!advance!and!retreat!of!

sea!ice!is!the!key!physical!driver!of!primary!production,!trophic!interactions,!and!human!

access!and!activities!over!the!entire!PAR.!!The!physical!climate!of!the!PAR!is!changing!rapidly,!

driving!change!across!the!regional!marine!ecosystems!(Grebmeier!and!Maslowski,!2014).

Figure)1.))Map)of)study)area,)showing)principal)currents)(red)lines))and)mean)seaVice)maximum)(spring))

and)minimum)(fall))extent)(Moore)and)Stabeno,)2015).

The!summer!minimum!sea0ice!extent!in!2007!and!2008!covered!an!area!that was!37%!less!

than!the!areal!coverage!of!two!decades!prior!and!20%!less!than!the!previous!minimum!

coverage!in!2005!(Stroeve!et!al.!2008).!!The!pace!of!these!changes!was!unexpected,!as!the

consensus!of!the!climate!research!community!was!that!such!changes!would!not!be!seen!for

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another!30!years!(Wang!and!Overland!2009).!The!reduction!in!sea0ice!area!opens!up!vast!new

regions!of!the!Arctic!Ocean!to!increased!absorption!of!sunlight!and!storage!of!heat.!!This!heat!

is!returned!to!the!atmosphere!in!the!following!autumn,!resulting!in!increased!Arctic!

temperatures!of!more!than!5° C,!extending!the!sea0ice!free!season!through!November,!and!

causing!changes!in!wind!patterns.!These!physical!changes!to!the!Arctic!system!appear!to!be!

irreversible.!!

Marine!mammals!respond!to!changes!in!sea!ice!according!to!their!dependency!on!it!for!vital!

life!functions!(Moore!and!Huntington!2008;!Kovacs!et!al.!2010).!!In!the!PAR,!the!dramatic!

changes!in seasonal!sea0ice!extent!and!type!appear!to!have!precipitated!changes!in!marine!

mammal!migration!and!feeding!patterns.!!!For!example,!large!aggregations!of!bowhead!whales!

(Balaena'mysticetus)!feed!routinely!near!Barrow!from!late!summer!through!autumn,!a!

phenomenon!previously!considered!‘sporadic’!(Moore!et!al.!2010).!!Gray!whales!(Eschrichtius'

robustus),!considered!a!temperate!species,!commonly!feed!near!the!bowhead!whales,!whereas!

the!two!species!appeared!to!be!spatially!and!temporally!segregated!in!the!early!1980s!(Moore!

et!al.!1986).!!

In!addition!to!the!changes!in!marine!mammal!ecology,!a!northward!shift!of!some!fish!species!

(e.g.!Spencer!2008;!Mueter!and!Litzow!2008;!Rand!and!Logerwell!2010)!and!the!prevalence!of

euphausiids!(Thysanoessa spp.)!indicated!that!the!trophic!structure!of!the!PAR!is!changing.!!

Euphausiids!are!important!prey!for!bowhead!and!gray!whales!(Ashjian!et!al.!2010;!Bluhm!et!

al.!2007)!and!possibly!also!for!ice!seals.!!Euphausiids!are!thought!to!be!transported!into!the!

PAR!from!the!northern!Bering!Sea,!as!reproduction!has!never!been!observed!in!waters!north!

of!Bering!Strait!(Berline!et!al.!2008).!!Coupled!to!this!is!the!general!dearth!of!information!on!

distribution!and!abundance!of!arctic!cod!(Boreogadus'saida)!in!the!PAR,!a!species!considered!

essential!in!the!short!trophic!food!webs!common!to!polar!marine!ecosystems!(Ainley!and!

DeMaster!1990).!!Examination!and!synthesis!of!how!natural!and!human0associated

environmental!variability!impacts!marine!mammals!requires!investigation!of!the!biophysical

changes!to!trophic!structure!and!dynamics!of!their!fish!and!invertebrate!prey.!

During!200502015,!BOEM!made!extensive!investments!in!marine!mammal!and!related!

oceanographic!studies!in!the!eastern!half!of!the!PAR!(i.e.!the!International!Date!Line!east!to

the!Canadian!Beaufort).!!Data!from!those!studies!will!considerably!augment!the!body!of!

knowledge!for!the region,!but!interpretation!would be!constrained!if!results!are!not!

integrated!with!other!research!efforts.!!Addressing!this!integration!was!the!genesis!of!the!

SOAR!project,!to!undertake!synthesis!of!research!from!ongoing!BOEM!studies!in!the!PAR,!

which!include,!but!are!not!limited!to,!the!following:!

•	 Bowhead!Whale!Feeding!Variability!in!the!Western!Alaskan!Beaufort!Sea:!!Satellite!

Tracking!of!Bowhead!Whale!Movements,!Feeding!&!Oceanography!

•	 Passive!Acoustic!Detection!and!Monitoring!of!Endangered!Whales!in!the!Arctic!

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•	 Ecosystem!Observations!in!the!Chukchi!Sea:!!Biophysical!Mooring!and!Climate!

Modeling 
 

•	 Chukchi!Sea!Offshore!Monitoring!in!Drilling!Area!(COMIDA):!Chemistry!and!Benthos!

•	 Distribution!and!Relative!Abundance!of!Marine!Mammals:!!COMIDA!Aerial!Surveys!

•	 Hanna!Shoal!Ecosystem!Study!

•	 Monitoring!the!Distribution!of!Arctic!Whales!(also!known!as!BWASP)!

•	 Walrus!Habitat!Use!in!the!Potential!Drilling!Area!!

•	 Pinniped!Movements!and!Foraging:!Bearded!Seals!

•	 Assessing!Reproduction!and!Body!Condition!of!the!Ringed!Seal!near!Sachs!Harbour,!

Northwest!Territory,!Canada,!through!a!Harvest0based!Sampling!Program!

•	 Arctic!marine!research!studies!supported!through!National!Ocean!Partnership 
 

Program!(NOPP),!to!which!BOEM!contributes 
 

•	 Studies!conducted!by!the!Alaska!Department!of!Fish!and!Game!(ADF&G)!and!the!North!

Slope!Borough!(NSB)!under!BOEM’s!Coastal!Impact!Assistance!Program!(CIAP)!

Data!and!results!from!related!(but!not!BOEM0funded) studies!that!also!contribute!to!the!SOAR!

include,!but!are!not!limited,!to the!following:!

•	 NOAA’s!RUSALCA!program!(USA0Russia!bilateral!study!of!the!Chukchi!Sea)

•	 Studies!supported!by!NSF!Office!of!Polar!Programs!

•	 Studies!supported!by!the!Landscape!Conservation!Cooperative Network

•	 Studies!supported!by!the!Alaska!Department!of!Fish!&!Game,!the!US!Geological!Survey,!

and!by!the!US!Fish!&!Wildlife!Service

•	 Studies!supported!by!oil!and!gas!industry!(e.g.,!Shell,!ConocoPhillips,!StatOil,!British!

Petroleum)!related!to!mitigation!and!monitoring!of!effects!of!offshore!exploration!and!

development!on!marine!mammals!and!their!environment,!e.g.!the!Chukchi!Sea

Environmental!Studies!Program!(CSESP).!

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OBJECTIVES)AND)METHODS

OBJECTIVES

The!SOAR!project!focused on!three objectives:

1. Increase!scientific!understanding!of!the!inter0!and!intra0relationships!of!oceanographic!

conditions,!benthic!organisms,!lower!trophic!prey!species!(forage!fish!and!

zooplankton),!and!marine!mammal!distribution!and!behavior!in!the!PAR,!with!

particular!emphasis!on!the!Chukchi!Sea!lease!areas.!

2. Enhance!capability!to!predict!changes!in!oceanographic!features!such!as!currents,!

upwelling,!and!ice!leads!and!associated!changes!in!the!behavior!of!marine!mammals!

and!their!prey!in!the!PAR,!with!particular!emphasis!on!the!northeastern!Chukchi!Sea.!!

3. Effectively!transmit!findings!of!synthesis!activities!to!resource!managers,!local!Arctic!

residents,!national!and!international!science!societies!and!the!general!public.!

METHODS

TASK!FRAMEWORK

The!overarching!goal!of!the!SOAR!project!was!to!use!available!analytical!and!modeling!

approaches!to!identify!and!test!hypotheses!that!cross!scientific!disciplines.!SOAR!provides!a!

framework!to!support!a!synthesis!of!scientific!information!drawn!from!completed!and!

ongoing!marine!research!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!region.!!The!framework!consists!of!six!tasks:!!!

1.	 establish!a!Science!Steering!Committee!to!provide!leadership!and!oversight!for!the!

synthesis!project;!

2. conduct!a!Synthesis!of!Arctic!Research!(SOAR)!Workshop,!involving!PIs!from!all!

relevant!research!programs,!to:!

i. identify!and!develop!science!synthesis!themes;!!

ii. detail!required!data!and!analyses!for!each!theme;!!

iii. form!Analytical!Teams!to!support!the!work!of!each!synthesis!theme;!!

iv. list!anticipated!work!products!(i.e.,!peer0reviewed!papers!and!presentations);

and!

10
v. derive!a!means!to!archive!data!and!meta0data!used!in!support!of!the!synthesis;!

3. support!Analytical!Team!data!integration!and!analysis,!including!theme0based

meetings,!as!needed;!!

4. track progress!of!analytical!work,!via!bi0monthly!teleconferences!and!annual!SCC/AT0

update!workshops;!

5. produce!science!products,!including!presentations!at!professional!meetings!and!

publication!of!peer0reviewed!papers!as!a!Special!Issue!&/or!Theme!Sections!in!an!

appropriate!scientific!journal;!and!

6. communicate!synthesis!approach!and!findings!to!local!Arctic!residents,!resource!

managers,!national!and!international!science!societies!and!the!general!public.!

TASK!DETAIL

!!

TASK)1:)))ESTABLISH)AND)CONVENE)SCIENTIFIC)STEERING)COMMITTEE

Leadership!and!guidance!of!the!synthesis!project was provided!by!a!Science!Steering!

Committee!(SSC),!formed!of!senior!scientists!with!decades0long!experience!in!the!Pacific

Arctic.!!At!the!initial!SSC!meeting,!the!group!identified!relevant!projects,!developed

provisional!science!themes,!and!identified potential!participants!and!leaders!for!

interdisciplinary!Analytical!Teams!formed!at!the!subsequent!SOAR!Workshop.!!!

TASK)2:)))PLAN)AND)CONDUCT)SOAR)WORKSHOP

A!multi0disciplinary!SOAR!Workshop!was the!keystone!initial!product!of!SOAR.!!Workshop!

participants!inventoried available!data!and!evaluated!its!sufficiency!to!address!specific!cross0

disciplinary!hypotheses!and!questions!provisionally!identified!as!science!themes!by!the!SSC.!!

The!provisional!list!of!themes!was!modified!and!new!themes!emerged!at!the!workshop.!!Once

science!themes!were!agreed!upon,!interdisciplinary!Analytical!Teams!(AT)!were!formed!to!

conduct!the!core!work!of!the!SOAR!project.!!Interdisciplinary!ATs!then initiated!the

development!of!short!proposals!to!support!the!work!required!for!data,!integration,!analyses

and/or!modeling.!!

TASK)3:))SUPPORT)DATA)INTEGRATION,)ANALYSIS)AND)MODELING!!

In!response!to!proposals!detailing!the!work!to!be!performed,!timeline,!and!products!

anticipated—!and!in!coordination!with!SSC!review—!funding!was!provided!via!contract!for!

selected!ATs!to!integrate!data,!conduct!analyses,!run!models!and/or!develop!publications.!!In!

some!cases,!direct!funding!was!not!needed,!and!in0kind!support!was!provided!in!the!form!of!

review,!coordination,!and!publication!facilitation.!!A!subset!of!ATs!integrated!their!work!with

11
on0going!oceanographic!programs!(e.g.!RUSALCA!and!the!Distributed!Biological!Observatory!

[DBO]),!and!in!some!cases!the!ATs!conducted follow0on!theme0based!meetings!or!integrative!

workshops!as!the!best!means!to!accomplish!data!integration!and!synthesis!on!their!topic.!!

Other!ATs!chose!to!integrate!their!work!via!video!or!teleconferences,!with!the!bulk!of!contract!

funding!going!towards!support!for!a!graduate!student,!post0doc,!or!other!researcher!to!

accomplish!the!synthesis!tasks!identified.

TASK)4:))TRACK)PROGRESS)OF)ANALYTICAL)WORK

AT!leads!had!primary!responsibility!for!tracking!the!progress!of!work!on!their!science!theme,!

and!members!of!the!SSC!were!also asked!to!follow!the!progress!of!the!work!towards!useful!

products.!!Tracking!took!the!form!of!contact!at!regular!intervals!(e.g.!bimonthly)!via!e0mail!or!

phone,!soliciting!specific!information!on!problems!encountered!and!adherence!to!timeline!for!

product!completion.!!Summaries!of!progress!on!each!theme!appeared in Quarterly!Reports!to!

the!BOEM.!!

TASK)5:))SCIENCE)PRODUCTS))

The core!product!of!the!SOAR!project!was!a!series!of!science!presentations!and!peer0reviewed!

papers!describing!current!and!projected!status!of!the!PAR!marine!ecosystem.!!Annual

presentations!on!the!approach!and!progress!of!the!SOAR!were!provided!at!plenary sessions!of!

the!Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!and!additional!presentations!were!made!at!other!

science!venues!such!as!the!AGU!Ocean Sciences!meeting.!!Science!papers!were!then!published!

in!special!issues!of!peer0reviewed!journals,!with!the!project!PIs!and!coordinator!serving!as!

Guest!Editors.!!

TASK)6:))COMMUNICATION)OF)SYNTHESIS)APPROACH)&)PRODUCTS

In!addition!to!science!papers and!presentations,!results!of!the!syntheses!were!provided!to!

communities!in!electronic!and!hard!copy!format,!and!opportunities!to!speak!with!Arctic!

residents!were!sought at!co0management!meetings!and!other!fora.!!A!web!site!was developed,!

providing!graphics!and!brief!summaries!for!general!use!and!linking!to!other!relevant!sites..!!

Results!of!the!synthesis!were!communicated!to!various!national!and!international!Arctic!

Programs!(e.g.,!NOAA!Arctic!Report!Card,!SEARCH,!ISAC,!PAG,!IASC!and!Arctic!Council!

Working!Groups).!!

12
SOAR!PHASE!1!AND!SOAR!PHASE!2!
 

Task!5 (Science!Products)!was!originally!envisaged!to!result!in!a!special!volume!of!peer0

reviewed!papers,!possibly!supplemented!by!an!additional!smaller!set!of!papers!in!a!theme!

section!or!other!similar!outlet.!!However,!following!completion!of!the!first!phase!of!SOAR,!

culminating!in!the!2015!special!issue!of!Progress'in'Oceanography (Moore!and!Stabeno!2015;!

see!Results!section!below!for!more!information),!there!was!a!high!level!of!interest!in!

extending!SOAR!to!include!additional!synthesis.!!Therefore!the!second!phase!of!SOAR!was!

developed,!building!from!an!informal!mid0project!workshop!and!resulting!in!a!second!full!

special!volume!of!Deep@Sea'Research'II.!!Further!detail!is!provided!in!the!following!sections.

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONAL!TASKS:!SCIENCE!STEERING!COMMITTEE!AND!WORKSHOP

THE!SOAR!SCIENCE!STEERING!COMMITTEE

A!Science!Steering!Committee!(SCC)!comprised!of!scientists!and!Alaskan!coastal!community!

representatives!was!established!(Table!1).!!The!first!of!five!annual!SSC!meetings!was!held!from!

103!November!2011!at!the!Watertown!Hotel!in!Seattle,!WA.!!The!SSC!identified!relevant!projects!

and!data!sources,!developed!three!draft!science!themes!and!related!questions,!and!identified!

potential!participants!and!leaders!for!associated!interdisciplinary!Analytical!Teams!that!would

be!formed!at!SOAR!Science!Workshop.! Multiple!subsequent!meetings!further!developed!the!

science!themes!and!provided!guidance!for!SOAR!tasks!(Table!2).

Table)1.))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions

Science!Steering!

Committee!Member!

Affiliation! Location

Robyn!Angliss! NOAA/National!Marine!

Mammal!Laboratory!

Seattle,!WA

Carin!Ashjian! Woods!Hole!Oceanographic!

Institution

Woods!Hole,!MA

Christopher!Clark Cornell!University Ithaca,!NY

13
Jacqueline!Grebmeier! University!of!Maryland!

Center!for!Environmental!

Studies

Solomons,!MD!

Craig!George North!Slope!Borough Barrow,!AK!

Taqulik!Hepa North!Slope!Borough Barrow,!AK!

Vera!Metcalf Eskimo!Whaling!

Comission/Kawerak!

Nome,!AK!

Sue!Moore NOAA!/!NMFS! Seattle,!WA

Chad!Jay US!Geological!Survey Anchorage,!AK!

Tim!Ragan! Marine!Mammal!Commission! Washington,!DC

Phyllis!Stabeno NOAA!/!PMEL! Seattle,!WA

Robert!Suydam North!Slope!Borough Barrow,!AK!

Tom!Weingartner! University!of!Alaska!0!

Fairbanks

Fairbanks,!AK!

Table)2.)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings.

SOAR)SSC)Meeting

SSC!Teleconference!#1

Date

21!September!2011!

SSC!Teleconference!#2 18!October!2011

SSC!Annual!in0person!meeting,!Seattle,!WA! 11!November!2011!

SSC!Teleconference!#3 16!February!2012

SSC!Teleconference!#4 6!April!2012!

SOAR!March!Workshop! 14016!March!2012

SSC!Teleconference!#5 6!July!2012

SSC!Teleconference!#6 6!October!2012

SSC!Annual!in0person!meeting,!Anchorage,!AK 21!January!2013

SSC!Teleconference!#7 9!April!2013!

SSC!Teleconference!#8 14!November!2013!

SSC!Annual!in0person!meeting,!Anchorage,!AK 20!January!2014

SSC!Teleconference!#9 12!January!2015

SSC!Annual!in0person!meeting,!Anchorage,!AK 23!January!2015

SSC!Annual!in0person!meeting,!Anchorage,!AK!(informal) 26!January!2016


 

SOAR!WORKSHOP!–!MARCH!2012

The!SOAR!Science!Workshop!was!held!from!14016!March!2012!at!the!Egan!Center!in!

Anchorage,!Alaska.!!The!SOAR!Principal!Investigators!and!Project!Coordinator,!all!members!of!

the!Science!Steering!Committee,!and!42!of!the!43!invited!SOAR!Contributors!attended!the!

14
workshop.!!Draft!Science!Themes!and!Questions!developed!by!the!SOAR!Science!Steering!

Committee!were!provided!to!participants!in!advance!of!the!workshop,!summarized!as:!(i)!

Ecosystem!Response!to!Bottom0up!and/or!Top0down!Forcing;!(ii)!Marine!Birds,!Mammals,!

and!Fish!as!Ecosystem!Sentinels;!and!(iii)!Acoustic!Ecology.!

The!primary!goals!of!the!Science!Workshop!were!to:!(1)!refine!the!Draft!Science!Themes!and!

Questions,!(2)!form!research!teams!to!undertake!analysis!in!support!of!development!of!peer0

reviewed!papers,!and!(3)!develop!short!proposals!to!identify!project!milestones!and!financial!

support!required!to!complete!synthetic!projects.!

Day!one!of!the!workshop!consisted!of!disciplinary talks!in!plenary!session!to!provide!all!

participants!with!the!current!state!of!knowledge!in!each!area!of!study.!!During!day!two!of!the!

workshop,!science!themes!were!revised!to!reflect!group!input.!!Participants!divided!into!three!

theme0based!breakout!groups!and!began!developing!science!questions!to!propose!for!SOAR.!!

Day!three!of!the!workshop!began!with!a!plenary!summary!of!the!previous!day’s!progress!

followed!by!breakout!groups!to!write!and!submit!one0page!proposals!for!the!projects!

requesting!funding.!!On!the!afternoon!of!the!third!day,!an!open0session!was!held!to!

communicate!workshop!progress!to!BOEM!scientists!and!managers,!colleagues!from!the!North!

Pacific!Research!Board!and!Alaska!Ocean!Observing!System,!industry!representatives,!and

other!interested!parties.!!Further!details!of!the!SOAR!Workshop!can!be!found!in!the!SOAR!

Workshop!Report (Sheffield!Guy!et!al.!2012a),!and!see!also!Sheffield!Guy!et!al.!(2012b).!

15
SCIENCE!PRODUCT!AND!COMMUNICATION!TASKS 
 

PEER0REVIEWED!PUBLICATIONS!— PHASE!1 
 


 

Following!the!initial!SOAR!theme!selections!and!team!development,!and!incorporating!an!

extensive!peer0review!phase!led!by!the!project!PIs!and!coordinator,!the!first!phase!of!the!
 

SOAR!project!culminated!in!a!special!volume!of Progress'in'Oceanography,!published!in!August!
 

2015!(Fig.!2;!Table!3).!!This!special!issue!included!16!full!papers!plus!an!introduction!paper!
 

authored!by!the!two!project!PIs.!! 
 


 


 


 


 

Figure)2.)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special)

volume,)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015.

16
Table)3.))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography.

Moore,!S.E.,!Stabeno,!P.J.,!2015.!Synthesis!of!Arctic!Research!(SOAR)!in!marine!ecosystems!

of!the!Pacific!Arctic.!Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!1011.

Wood,!K.R.,!Bond,!N.A.,!Danielson,!S.L.,!Overland,!J.E.,!Salo,!S.A.,!Stabeno,!P.J.,!Whitefield,!J.,!

2015.!A!decade!of!environmental!change!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!region.!Progress!in!

Oceanography!136,!12031.

Frey,!K.E.,!Moore,!G.W.K.,!Cooper,!L.W.,!Grebmeier,!J.M.,!2015.!Divergent!patterns!of!recent!

sea!ice!cover!across!the!Bering,!Chukchi,!and!Beaufort!seas!of!the!Pacific!Arctic!Region.!

Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!32049.

Wang,!M.,!Overland,!J.E.,!2015.!Projected!future!duration!of!the!sea0ice0free!season!in!the!

Alaskan!Arctic.!Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!50059.

Arrigo,!K.R.,!van!Dijken,!G.L.,!2015.!Continued!increases!in!Arctic!Ocean!primary!

production.!Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!60070.

Mathis,!J.T.,!Cooley,!S.R.,!Lucey,!N.,!Colt,!S.,!Ekstrom,!J.,!Hurst,!T.,!Hauri,!C.,!Evans,!W.,!Cross,!

J.N.,!Feely,!R.A.,!2015.!Ocean!acidification!risk!assessment!for!Alaska’s!fishery!sector.!

Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!71091.

Grebmeier,!J.M.,!Bluhm,!B.A.,!Cooper,!L.W.,!Danielson,!S.L.,!Arrigo,!K.R.,!Blanchard,!A.L.,!

Clarke,!J.T.,!Day,!R.H.,!Frey,!K.E.,!Gradinger,!R.R.,!Kędra,!M.,!Konar,!B.,!Kuletz,!K.J.,!Lee,!S.H.,!

Lovvorn,!J.R.,!Norcross,!B.L.,!Okkonen,!S.R.,!2015.!Ecosystem!characteristics!and!processes!

facilitating!persistent!macrobenthic!biomass!hotspots!and!associated!benthivory!in!the!

Pacific!Arctic.!Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!920114.

Logerwell,!E.,!Busby,!M.,!Carothers,!C.,!Cotton,!S.,!Duffy0Anderson,!J.,!Farley,!E.,!Goddard,!P.,!

Heintz,!R.,!Holladay,!B.,!Horne,!J.,!Johnson,!S.,!Lauth,!B.,!Moulton,!L.,!Neff,!D.,!Norcross,!B.,!

Parker0Stetter,!S.,!Seigle,!J.,!Sformo,!T.,!2015.!Fish!communities!across!a!spectrum!of!

habitats!in!the!western!Beaufort!Sea!and!Chukchi!Sea.!Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!

1150132.

Crawford,!J.A.,!Quakenbush,!L.T.,!Citta,!J.J.,!2015.!A!comparison!of!ringed!and!bearded!seal!

diet,!condition!and!productivity!between!historical!(1975–1984)!and!recent!(2003–2012)!

periods!in!the!Alaskan!Bering!and!Chukchi!seas.!Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!1330150.

Divoky,!G.J.,!Lukacs,!P.M.,!Druckenmiller,!M.L.,!2015.!Effects!of!recent!decreases!in!arctic!

sea!ice!on!an!ice0associated!marine!bird.!Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!1510161.

Lovvorn,!J.R.,!Rocha,!A.R.,!Jewett,!S.C.,!Dasher,!D.,!Oppel,!S.,!Powell,!A.N.,!2015.!Limits!to!

benthic!feeding!by!eiders!in!a!vital!Arctic!migration!corridor!due!to!localized!prey!and!

changing!sea!ice.!Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!1620174.

Kuletz,!K.J.,!Ferguson,!M.C.,!Hurley,!B.,!Gall,!A.E.,!Labunski,!E.A.,!Morgan,!T.C.,!2015.!

Seasonal!spatial!patterns!in!seabird!and!marine!mammal!distribution!in!the!eastern!

Chukchi!and!western!Beaufort!seas:!Identifying!biologically!important!pelagic!areas.!

Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!1750200.

Citta,!J.J.,!Quakenbush,!L.T.,!Okkonen,!S.R.,!Druckenmiller,!M.L.,!Maslowski,!W.,!Clement0

Kinney,!J.,!George,!J.C.,!Brower,!H.,!Small,!R.J.,!Ashjian,!C.J.,!Harwood,!L.A.,!Heide0Jørgensen,

M.P.,!2015.!Ecological!characteristics!of!core0use!areas!used!by!Bering–Chukchi–Beaufort!

(BCB)!bowhead!whales,!2006–2012.!Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!2010222.

17
Clark,!C.W.,!Berchok,!C.L.,!Blackwell,!S.B.,!Hannay,!D.E.,!Jones,!J.,!Ponirakis,!D.,!Stafford,!

K.M.,!2015.!A!year!in!the!acoustic!world!of!bowhead!whales!in!the!Bering,!Chukchi!and!

Beaufort!seas.!Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!2230240.

MacIntyre,!K.Q.,!Stafford,!K.M.,!Conn,!P.B.,!Laidre,!K.L.,!Boveng,!P.L.,!2015.!The!relationship!

between!sea!ice!concentration!and!the!spatio0temporal!distribution!of!vocalizing!bearded!

seals!(Erignathus!barbatus)!in!the!Bering,!Chukchi,!and!Beaufort!Seas!from!2008!to!2011.!

Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!2410249.

George,!J.C.,!Druckenmiller,!M.L.,!Laidre,!K.L.,!Suydam,!R.,!Person,!B.,!2015.!Bowhead!whale!

body!condition!and!links!to!summer!sea!ice!and!upwelling!in!the!Beaufort!Sea.!Progress!in!

Oceanography!136,!2500262.

Harwood,!L.A.,!Smith,!T.G.,!George,!J.C.,!Sandstrom,!S.J.,!Walkusz,!W.,!Divoky,!G.J.,!2015.!

Change!in!the!Beaufort!Sea!ecosystem:!Diverging!trends!in!body!condition!and/or!

production!in!five!marine!vertebrate!species.!Progress!in!Oceanography!136,!2630273.


 


 


 

PEER0REVIEWED!PUBLICATIONS!—!PHASE!2

Following!the!2015!publication!of!the!first!SOAR!special!issue in!Progress'in'Oceanography,'

the!SOAR!project!SSC!and!participants!decided!to!pursue!coordinate!the!publication!of!a!set!of!

papers!in!full!second!special!issue.!!Those!"Phase!2" topics!and!paper!leads!were!discussed!at!

the!annual!SOAR!SSC!meeting!in!January!2015.!!Based!upon!suggestions!at!this!meeting,!102!

page!proposals!were!requested!from!suggested!paper!leads,!and!proposals!were!then!

subsequently!developed!into!published!papers.!!The!majority!of!papers!for!the!second!special!

issue!were!completed!and!"in!press" by!the!end!of!2017!(Table!4),!with!final!publication!of!the!

complete!special!issue!in!Deep'Sea'Research'II'–'Topical'Studies'in'Oceanography expected!by!

late!summer!2018.!

Table)4.))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue,)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II.

Corresponding)

Author Manuscript)Title

Sue!Moore Introduction:!The!Synthesis!of!Arctic!Research!(SOAR)!Project!

Muyin!Wang Sea!ice!and!ocean!characteristics!in!the!Chukchi!Sea!by!selected!

CMIP5!models:!the!present!and!the!future

Nicholas!Bond Diagnosis!of!physical!oceanographic!events!in!the!Chukchi!Sea!

using!an!ocean!reanalysis

Victoria!Hill Decadal!trends!in!phytoplankton!production!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!

Region!from!1950!to!2012!

18
Jessica!Cross Formation!and!transport!of!corrosive!water!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!

Region

Lee!Cooper Deposition!patterns!on!the!Chukchi!Shelf!using!radionuclide!

inventories!in!relation!to!surface!sediment!characteristics!!

Matthew!

Druckenmiller!

Trends!in!sea0ice!cover!and!upwelling!potential!within!Bowhead!

whale!use!areas!in!the!Western!Arctic!

Kate!Stafford Acoustic!ecology!of!bowhead!and!beluga!whales!in!core!use!areas!

in!the!Beaufort!and!Chukchi!Seas

John!Citta Oceanographic!characteristics!associated!with!bowhead!whale!

movements!in!the!Chukchi!Sea

John!Citta Seasonal!distribution!and!overlap!of!marine!mammals!in!the!

Bering,!Chukchi,!and!Beaufort!seas

Kimberly!Rand!

Using!biological!traits!and!environmental!variables!to!

characterize!two!Arctic!epibenthic!invertebrate!communities!in!

and!adjacent!to!Barrow!Canyon

Elizabeth!Logerwell

Environmental!drivers!of!benthic!fish!distribution!in!and!around!

Barrow!Canyon!in!the!northeastern!Chukchi!Sea!and!western!

Beaufort!Sea

Kathleen!Stafford

Beluga!whales!in!the!Alaskan!Beaufort!Sea:!a!synthesis!of!

available!information!on!timing,!distribution,!habitat!use!and!

environmental!drivers!

Stephen!Okkonen

Relationships!among!high!river!discharges,!upwelling!events,!and!

bowhead!whale!(Balaena'mysticetus)!occurrence!in!the!central!

Alaskan!Beaufort!Sea

Martin!Robards

Understanding!and!adapting!to!observed!changes!in!the!Alaskan!

Arctic:!Place0based!collaborations!with!Alaska!Native!

communities!

Sue!Moore The!Arctic!Marine!Pulses!(AMP)!Model:!linking!temporal!

processes!to!contiguous!domains!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!


 


 

19
PRESENTATIONS!AND!POSTERS!AT!SCIENTIFIC MEETINGS

SOAR!Principal!Investigators!and!contributors!made!more!than!50!presentations!including!

information!about!this!synthesis!effort!at!a!variety!of!scientific!meetings,!workshops,!and!

webinars.!!A!full!list!of!these!presentations!is!provided!in!Appendix!C.!

OTHER!COMMUNICATION!OF!SYNTHESIS!APPROACH!AND!PRODUCTS

The!Synthesis!of!Arctic!Research!website,!located!at!https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/soar/,!

provides!background!information!and!up0to0date!science!product!information!to!stakeholders

and!the!general!public.!!The!website!will!continue!to!be!live!and!hosted!by!NOAA.!!

Several!peer0reviewed!papers!were!published!that!also!appeal!to!a!more!general!or!trans0

discipline!audience,!including!Sheffield!Guy!et!al.!(2012b) and!Sheffield!Guy!et!al.!(2016).!!

SOAR!synthesis!results!were!featured!in!numerous!newspapers,!online!features,!magazines,!

and!more.!

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION

SOAR!PHASE!I

The!first!phase!of!SOAR!resulted!in!fifteen!papers!published!in!a!special!issue!of!Progress'in'

Oceanography'in!2015!(Table!3).!!Here!we!provide!a!broad!overview!and!discussion!of!the!

papers!in!that!special!issue,!drawn!from!the!Introduction!to!that!issue!(Moore!and!Stabeno

2015).

1. Introduction

The!initiation!of!the!Synthesis!of!Arctic!Research!(SOAR)!project!coincided!with!the!

recognition!that!biophysical!changes!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!region!were!so!extreme,!compared!

to!the!recent!past,!that!they!acquired!the!moniker!‘new!normal’!(Jeffries!et!al!2013).!!

Consequently,!describing!the!biophysical!properties!of!the!‘new‘!Pacific!Arctic!marine!

ecosystem!was!foundational!to!the!SOAR!effort!and!the!focus!of!five!papers!in!the!first!special!

issue.!!!Examining!biological!responses!to!the!new!biophysical!forcing!then!became!the!task!of!

researchers!focused!on!the!study!of!lower!trophic!level!(LTL)!communities!and!upper!trophic!

level!(UTL)!species.!!Two!papers!provide!integrated!results!from!direct!sampling!of!benthic!

and!fish!communities,!while!three!papers!report!on!changes!in!LTL!species!occurrence!

inferred!by!shifts!in!the!diets!of!seals!and!marine!birds.!!Six!papers!focus!on!UTL!species,!with!

four!presenting!information!on!seasonal!occurrence!in!hotspot!or!core0use!habitats,!and two!

describing!variability!in!marine!mammal!body!condition!in!the!context!of!decadal0scale!

20
environmental!variability.!!Together,!these!papers!provide!a!synthetic!context!to!focus!

hypotheses!underpinning!the!next!decade!of!research!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!marine!ecosystem.!

2.)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

The!Pacific!Arctic!marine!ecosystem!is!comprised!of!inflow!shelves!(northern!Bering!and!

Chukchi!seas)!coupled!to!interior!shelves!(East!Siberian!and!Beaufort!seas),!with!the!

contrasting!biophysics!of!these!domains!summarized!in!Carmack!et!al.!(2006).!!Circulation!on!

both!inflow!and!interior!shelves!is!linked!to!pan0arctic!teleconnection!mechanisms!(e.g.!Arctic!

Oscillation),!with!interior!shelves!also!strongly!influenced!by!the!seasonal!outflow!of

relatively!warm!fresh!water!from!arctic!rivers.!!Evaluating!ecosystem!status!and!trends!in!the!

Pacific!Arctic!was!the!focus!of!a!recent!book,!with!10!(of!12)!chapters!devoted!to!observations!

and!modeling!of!the!atmosphere,!ocean!physics!and!chemistry!(Grebmeier!and!Maslowski,!

2014).!!The!papers!in!the!first!special issue!add!to!that!body!of!knowledge,!especially!with!

regard!to!biological!responses!to!biophysical!drivers,!and!in!this!way!contribute!to!a!more!

holistic!understanding!of!the!Pacific!Arctic!marine!ecosystem.!

2.1! Physical'observations'and'open@water'projections'in'the'‘new'normal’'Pacific'Arctic'''''

Recent!observations!(200302013)!of!environmental!changes!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!support!the!

contention!that!a!'new!normal'!climate!is!emerging!(Fig.!3;!Jeffries!et!al.,!2013;!Wood!et!al.,!

2015).!!

Figure)3.))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem.

21
The!iconic!indicator!of!this!change!is!the!dramatic!summertime!loss!of!sea!ice!(50%!by!area,!

75%!by!volume),!which!in!some!years!(e.g.!2012)!has!resulted!in!nearly!ice0free!conditions!in!

the!region.!!Specifically,!satellite!data!from!197902012!reveal!localized!changes!in!sea0ice!

occurrence!of!up!to!01.64!days/year!in!the!Canada!Basin!and!01.24!days/year!in!the!Beaufort!

Sea,!which!accelerated!to!06.57!days/year!(Canada!Basin)!and!012.84!days/year!(Beaufort!

Sea)!during!the!200002012!period!(Frey!et!al.,!2015).!!Multiyear!sea!ice!has!almost!entirely!

disappeared,!with!inter0annual!variability!in!ice!concentration!largely!driven!by!wind!forcing!

in!the!Beaufort!Sea.!!In!the!Canada!Basin,!differences!in!annual!sea!ice!are!primarily!thermally!

driven,!while!sea0ice!extent!is!influenced!by!both!winds!and!heat!on!the!Bering!Sea!shelf.!

The!summer!atmospheric!patterns!influence!ocean!circulation,!freshwater!pathways!and!

movement!and!melting!of!sea!ice.!!During!the!last!decade,!the!intensification!of!the!Beaufort!

High!(Ogi!and!Wallace,!2012)!resulted!in!anomalous!summer!winds.!!These!anomalous!winds!

together!with!the!loss!of!multi0year!ice!were!the!primary!factors!that!transformed!the!Chukchi!

and!northern!Beaufort!seas!into!an!open!water!environment!(Wood!et!al,!2015).!!In!particular,!

the!eastern!Beaufort!Sea!appears!to!be!particularly!susceptible!to!anomalous!winds!through!

their!effect!on!the!advection!of!warm,!fresh!water!from!the!Mackenzie!River!plume.!!In!

addition,!transport!anomalies!in!the!Bering!Strait!are!determined!by!competing!large0scale!

atmospheric!patterns,!the!Beaufort!High!and!Aleutian!Low!(Danielson!et!al.,!2014).!!Notably,!

changes!in!Bering!Strait!flow!through!can!impact!the!world!climate!far!beyond!the!Bering!

Strait!and!Arctic!region!(e.g.,!Hu!et!al.,!2015).!

Frey!et!al.!(2015)!investigate!the!influence!of!the!Pacific!Decadal!Oscillation (PDO)!and!the!

Arctic!Oscillation!(AO)!on!the!persistence!of!sea!ice!in!summer!and!winter.!!They!found!

significant!negative!correlations!between!sea!ice!on!the!southeastern!Bering!Sea!shelf!and!the!

PDO!in!winter,!as!well!as!significant!positive!correlations!between!the!AO!and!sea0ice!cover!

just!south!of!St.!Lawrence!Island.!!Significant!positive!correlations!between!the!PDO!and!sea!

ice!in!the!Canada!Basin0Canadian!Archipelago!were!found!in!summer,!as!well!as!between!the!

AO!and!sea!ice!in!the!Chukchi0Beaufort!seas.!!This!novel!investigation!of!teleconnections

between!the!PDO,!the!AO!and!sea0ice!cover!provides!a!critical!step!in!understanding!how

global!and!regional!climate!patterns!influence!the!physics!of!the!Pacific!Arctic!region.!!

The!unprecedented!loss!of!sea!ice!has!resulted!in!a!tremendous!increase!in!open0water

susceptible!to!rapid!solar!heating,!with!additional!heat!and!fresh!water!provided!by!a!50%!

increase!in!Pacific!Water!inflow!at!Bering!Strait!from!200102011!(Woodgate!et!al.,!2012;!

Wood!et!al.,!2015).!!The!influence!of!increased!heat!stored!in!the!Chukchi!and!Beaufort!seas!is!

not!well!understood.!!Suggestions!that!heat!released!to!the!atmosphere!in!late!autumn!and!

winter!drives!aspects!of!mid0latitude!weather!remain!speculative,!largely!due!to!the!short

time!record!available!(Wood!et!al.,!2015).!!Freshening!of!the!Arctic!Ocean!has!been!occurring!

at!least!since!the!1990s!(e.g.!Giles!et!al.,!2012).!Several!explanations!have!been!proposed!

including!increased!sea0!ice!melt,!fresher!Pacific!Water!flowing!through!Bering!Strait,!changes

in!the!magnitude!of!river!discharge!and!the!mean!strengthening!of!the!Beaufort!High.!!In!

recent!years,!relatively!strong!easterly!winds!have!been!common!due!to!the!Arctic0wide

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pattern!of!circulation!around!an!intensified!Beaufort!High.!Under!these!conditions!fresh!and!

warm!water!from!the!Mackenzie!River!plume!can!be!laterally!transported!far!out!into!the!

Beaufort!Sea!(Wood!et!al.,!2015).!!

Wang!and!Overland!(2015)!compared!results!from!twelve!coupled!climate!models!to!produce!

composite!projections!of!the!duration!of!open!water!in!the!Chukchi!and!Beaufort!seas,!at!

decadal!intervals!from!201002050,!and!in!2090.!!For!waters!north!of!the!70°!N,!open0water

duration!shifts!from!304!months!in!2010!to!a!projected!~5!months!by!2040.!!Projected!open0

water!duration!is!about!one!month!longer!along!the!same!latitudes!in!the!Chukchi!Sea!

compared!with!the!Beaufort!Sea,!with!uncertainty!of!about!±!1!month!estimated!from!the!

range!of!model!results.!!All!models!projected!open0water!duration!to!expand!quickly!over!the

next!three!decades,!which!will!impact!regional!economic!access!and!potentially!alter!

ecosystems.!Yet!the!Pacific!Arctic!region!will!remain!covered!with!thin!first0year!ice!from!

January!through!May!into!the!second!half!of!the!century, due!to!seasonal!lack!of!sunlight.!!

2.2!Changes'in'primary'production'and'ocean'acidification!!

The!dramatic!loss!of!sea0ice!extent!and!volume!has!resulted!in!a!concomitant!increase!in!light!

penetration!in!the!upper!ocean!across!the!Arctic.!!!Given!the!thinning!and!areal!reduction!of!

sea!ice,!a!fundamental!question!arises:!have!these!changes!fostered!an!increase!in!marine!

primary!production?!!Specifically,!is!the!Pacific!Arctic!region!more!productive!than!it!was!

three!decades!ago?!!In!the!Atlantic!Arctic,!Leu!et!al.!(2011)!measured!primary!production!by!

both!ice!algae!and!phytoplankton!in!contrasting!years!(2007008)!of!sea0ice!cover!in!a!Svalbard!

fjord,!and!concluded!that!earlier!ice!break!up!corresponded!with!earlier!onset!of!a!

phytoplankton!bloom.!!Similarly,!Tremblay!et!al.!(2012)!report!increased!primary!production!

for!2007008!associated!with!extreme!sea0ice!retreats!and!increased!upwelling!at!stations!

located!south!and!east!of!Banks!Island!in!the!southeastern!Beaufort!Sea.!!!But,!can!conclusions!

drawn!from!measurements!so!restricted!in!space!and!time!be!extrapolated!to!larger!arctic!

regions?!!Using!satellite!imagery,!Arrigo!and!van!Dijken!(2015)!investigated!changes!in!sea!ice!

at!both!regional!and!basin!scales!from!199802012!and!estimated!how!these!changes!have!

impacted!rates!of!net!primary!production!(NPP)!by!phytoplankton.!!They!report!that!annual!

NPP!increased!30%!during!this!period,!with!the!largest!increases!on!the!interior!shelves!

(including!the!East!Siberian!and!Beaufort)!and!smaller!increases!on!inflow!shelves!(including!

the!Chukchi).!!Outflow!shelves!either!exhibited!no!change!in!annual!NPP,!or!a!decline,!perhaps!

indicating!that!nutrients!had!been!consumed!further!upstream.!!Increased!annual!NPP!was!

often,!but!not!always,!associated!with!reduced!sea0ice!extent!and!resultant!longer!

phytoplankton!growing!season.!

Human!activities!have!increased!the!atmospheric!CO2 concentration!by!about!40%!since!the!

beginning!of!the!industrial!age!and!it!is!estimated!that!the!ocean!has!absorbed!more!than!25%!

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of!the!total!anthropogenic!emissions!(Mathis!et!al,!2015).!!The!oceanic!uptake!of!CO2 triggers!a!

series!of!chemical!reactions!in!the!surface!ocean!that!reduces!pH!and!results!in!ocean!

acidification!(OA).!!In!short,!OA!makes!seawater!corrosive!to!calcium!carbonate!minerals,!

which!many!marine!organisms!rely!on!for!body!structures.!!High0latitude!oceans!have

naturally!low!carbonate!concentrations,!so!are!considered!to!be!more!vulnerable!to!the!

impacts!of!OA!because!additional!carbonate!loss!represents!a!much!greater!proportional!

change!to!the!system.!!In!a!novel!study,!Mathis!et!al.!provide!a!risk!assessment!of!OA!impacts!

to!commercial!and!traditional!fisheries!focused!on!shellfish,!salmon!and!finfish.!!The!resultant!

index!suggests!that!while!the!northern!Bering!Sea!is!at!medium!risk!from!OA!impacts!to!

fisheries,!Pacific!Arctic!waters!north!of!the!Seward!Peninsula!are!currently!at!low!risk,!due!

largely!to!a!lack!of!dependence!on!these!food!sources.

3.)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities:)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

The!predominant!conceptual!model!framing!how!marine!ecosystems!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!

respond!to!reduced!sea!ice!is!based!on!changes!anticipated!from!a!shift!in!pelagic0benthic

coupling!(Fig.!4).!!

Figure)4.))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on)

Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves.

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On!the!broad!shelves!that!comprise!much!of!the!Pacific!Arctic!marine!ecosystem,!new!primary!

production!from!sea0ice!algae!and!phytoplankton!blooms!falls!to!the!sea!floor!to!support!rich!

benthic!communities!(Grebmeier!2012).!!As!sea!ice!thins!and!retreats!earlier!in!the!season,!it!

is!anticipated!that!earlier!and!larger!phytoplankton!blooms!will!switch!from!a!benthic0

dominated!to!a!pelagic0dominated!marine!ecosystem.!!This!shift!will!cascade!through!the!

system,!supporting!novel!communities!of!secondary!and!tertiary!consumers!(zooplankton!

and!forage!fishes)!and!upper!trophic!level!marine!birds!and!mammals.!!Indeed,!Grebmeier!et!

al.!(2006)!suggested!that!this!type!of!ecosystem!shift!is!already!underway!in!the!marine!

communities!of!the!northern!Bering!Sea.!!The!Pacific!Arctic!is!often!described!as!a!benthic0

dominated!marine!ecosystem,!one!that!does!not!support!a!large!biomass!or!species!diversity!

of!fishes.!!A!description!of!conditions!that!have!fostered!existing!benthic!hotspots!offers!a!

solid!foundation!for!assessing!future!changes,!while!an!accounting!of!the!existing!

communities!of!marine!fishes!across!a!spectrum!of!habitats!provides!a!starting!point!upon!

which!to!build!a!long0term!record.!!!

3.1!Benthic'hotspots'and'marine'fishes'across'a'spectrum'of'habitats

A!record!of!extant!conditions!is!key!to!interpreting!marine!ecosystem!responses!to!the!new!

biophysical!forcing!now!evident!in!the!Pacific!Arctic.!!Such!a!record!exists!for!four!benthic!

‘hotspot’!communities!in!the!northern!Bering!and!Chukchi!seas!(Grebmeier!et!al.,!2015a),!but

not!for!marine!fishes.!!Long0term!sampling!of!benthic!macrofaunal!communities!indicates!that!

the!benthic!hotspots!have!maintained!consistently!high!biomass!for!up!to!four!decades,!due!to!

reoccurrence!of!seasonally!reliable!moderate0to0high!water!column!production!coupled!with!

export!of!carbon!from!overlying!waters!to!the!sea!floor.!!Upper!trophic!level!benthivores!

target!prey!aggregations!in!each!of!the!hotspots.!!Overall,!bottom0up!forcing!by!hydrography!

and!food!supply!to!the!benthos!influences!persistence!and!composition!of!benthic!prey,!which!

in!turn!influences!the!upper!trophic!level!species!composition!and!seasonal!occurrence.!!

When!consistently!sampled!in!tandem,!these!benthos0benthivore!connections!can!facilitate

use!of!UTL!species!as!sentinels!of!shifts!in!prey!composition!and!abundance!(Moore!et!al.!

2014).

Since!the!2000s,!there!have!been!a!host!of!Arctic!marine!fish!surveys!in!the!Chukchi!and!

western!Beaufort!seas,!precipitated!by!both!scientific!interest!in!the!impacts!of!climate!change!

and!commercial!interest!in!oil!and!gas!development!(Logerwell!et!al.,!2015).!!Results!from!

these!surveys!provide!a!novel!opportunity!to!compare!Arctic!fish!communities!across!a!

spectrum!of!habitats,!ranging!from!lagoons!and!beaches!to!benthic!and!pelagic!continental!

shelf!waters.!!A!synthesis!of!data!from!these!surveys!revealed!more!similarities!than!

differences!in!habitat!use!between!the!two!seas.!!For!example,!nearshore!habitat!is!used!by!all!

age!classes!of!forage!fishes!and!is!also!a!nursery!area!for!other!species!in!both!the!Chukchi!and!

western!Beaufort!seas.!!Notably,!some!commercial!species!may!be!expanding!their!range!

north!to!these!waters,!including!chinook!salmon!(Oncorhynchus'tshawytscha),!walleye!pollock!

(Gadus'chalcogrammus)!and!flatfishes!(Pleuronectidae).!!In!addition,!a!synthesis!of!

information!on!relative!abundance!and!age!of!arctic!cod!(Boreogadus'saida)'and!saffron!cod!

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(Eleginus'gracilis),!both!key!prey!species!in!Arctic!food!webs,!supported!the!development!of!

life!history!and!distribution!models!that!will!inform!future!research!on!trophic!dynamics!in!

the!Pacific!Arctic!sector.!!

3.2!Inferences'of'marine'ecosystem'shifts'from'seals,'seabirds'and'sea'ducks

Additional!information!regarding!the!impact!of!‘new!normal’!biophysical!conditions!on!lower!

trophic!level!species!can!be!inferred!from!shifts!in!the!diet!and!body!condition!of!marine!

mammals!and!birds.!!!Crawford!et!al.!(2015)!compared!the!diet!and!condition!of!ringed!seals!

(Pusa'hispida)!and!bearded!seals!(Erignathus'barbatus)!harvested!in!the!Alaskan!Bering!and!

Chukchi!seas!during!historical!(197501984)!and!recent!(200302012)!periods.!!They!found!the!

proportion!of!fish!in!the!diet!of!both!species!increased!in!the!recent!reduced0ice!period!

compared!to!the!historical!period.!!!In!addition,!ringed!seals!grew!faster,!had!thicker!blubber!

and!matured!two!years!earlier.!!Bearded!seals!had!thicker!blubber!in!the!recent!period,!but

did!not!manifest!the!other!changes!reported!for!the!ringed!seals.!!Although!a!number!of!the!

comparisons!were!not!statistically!significant,!taken!together!these!observations!suggest!

greater!fish!availability!in!the!Alaskan!Bering0Chukchi!marine!ecosystem!supporting!good!

body!condition!in!the!seals.

As!in!the!seal!paper,!Divoky!et!al.!(2015)!parsed!a!long0term!data!set!into!recent!(200302012)!

and!historical!(197501984)!periods!to!compare!oceanographic!conditions,!nestling!diet!and!

fledging!success!at!a!black!guillemot!(Cepphus'grylle'mandtii)!breeding!colony!in!the!western!

Beaufort!Sea.!!From!15!July!to!1!September,!sea!ice!retreated!an!average!of!1.8!km!per!day!to!

an!average!distance!of!95.8!km!from!the!colony!during!the!historical!period,!while!in!the!

recent!period!ice!retreat!averaged!9.8!km!per!day!to!an!average!distance!of!506.9!km.!Sea!

surface!temperature!near!the!colony!increased!by!2.9!0C!between!the!two!periods.!While!

Arctic!cod!comprised!over!95%!of!the!prey!provided!to!nestlings!in!the!historical!period,!this!

proportion!decreased!to!<5%!of!the!nestling!diet!during!most!years!in!the!recent!period,!

when!demersal!sculpin!(Cottidae)!comprised!the!majority!of!the!diet.!!The!shift!away!from!

Arctic!cod!was!associated!with!a!five0fold!increase!in!the rate!of!nestling!starvation!and!

reductions!in!nestling!growth!and!fledging!mass.!!Conversely,!annual!adult!survival!during!the!

nonbreeding!season!(September0May),!showed!no!significant!difference!between!the!two

periods,!suggesting!no!change!in!the!availability!of!Arctic!cod!or!in!overall!prey!availability!to

black!guillemots!in!their!Bering!Sea!wintering!area.!!

In!contrast!to!a!reliance!on!pelagic!prey,!Lovvorn!et!al.!(2015)!investigated!potential!climate0

related!limits!to!benthic!feeding!by!sea!ducks!along!their!migration!corridor!in!the!

northeastern!Chukchi!Sea.!!King!eiders!(Somateria'spectabilis)!primarily!eat!clams!(bivalves)!

during!migration!and!recent!sampling!has!shown!that!dense!clam!assemblages!occur!only!in!

specific!locations!along!the!migration!corridor.!!!Sea!ice!can!prevent!eiders!from!reaching!

these!prime!feeding!sites,!with!satellite!data!for!April‒May!(2001‒2013)!showing!that!access!

can!vary!from!0‒100%.!!In!a!warming!and!increasingly!variable!climate,!access!to!benthic!

feeding!sites!may!be!further!eroded!by!the!effects!of!winds!on!unconsolidated!ice.!!These!

26
results!underscore!the!importance!of!maintaining!a!range!of!benthic!feeding!areas!throughout!

the!migration!corridor!to!ensure!prey!availability!to!the!eiders!each!year.!

4.)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species:)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

As!top!predators,!marine!birds!and!mammals!must!adapt!to!changes!in!their!habitats!resulting!

from!physical!forcing!and!thereby!can!serve!as!sentinels!to!ecosystem!shifts!(Moore!et!al.!

2014;!Moore!and!Gulland!2014).!!Responses!of!UTL!species!to!altered!habitats!can!be!

categorized!as!extrinsic,!including!shifts!in!range,!migratory!timing!(phenology),!or!regions!of!

high!abundance!(hotspots);!or!intrinsic,!including!changes!in!diet,!body!condition!and

chemical!composition!(Fig.!5).!!

Figure)5.)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem)

alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic),)revealing)fundamental)

changes)in)marine)ecosystems.

Responses!are!inter0related!such!that!a!shift!in!range,!phenology!or!use!of!hotspots!will!be!

reflected!in!changes!in!diet,!body!condition!and!chemistry.!It!is!this!connection!that!allows!us!

27
to!detect!ecosystem!reorganization!by!tracking!changes!in!the!ecology!and!physiology!of!UTL

species.!Although!there!have!been!no!coordinated!long0term!studies!of!UTL!species!in!the!

Pacific!Arctic!examining!this!connection,!a!synthesis!of!information!from!visual!surveys,!

satellite!tagging!of!individuals!and!year0round!acoustic!detections!provides!an!ecological!

foundation!that!can!provide!a!baseline!to!inform!future!investigations.!!!

4.1!Seasonal'occurrence,'hotspot'habitats'and'acoustic'ecology

Kuletz!et!al.!(2015)!depict!spatial!patterns!of!relative!abundance!of!seabirds!and!marine!

mammals!in!summer!and!fall,!derived!from!six!years!of!visual!surveys!in!the!eastern!Chukchi!

and!western!Beaufort!seas.!Using!statistical!spatial!analysis!tools,!hotspots!for!seabirds,!

walrus,!and!gray!whales!were!identified!in!the!Chukchi!Sea,!while!hotspots!for!bowhead!

whales!and!seals!were!described!near!Barrow!Canyon!and!along!the!Beaufort!Sea!shelf!and!

slope.!!Hotspots!for!belugas!occurred!in!both!the!Chukchi!and!Beaufort!seas.!!In!summer,!three!

hotspots!were!shared!by!both!seabirds!and!marine!mammals!in!the!Chukchi!Sea:!!waters!

offshore!Wainwright,!south!of!Hanna!Shoal,!and!at!the!mouth!of!Barrow!Canyon.!!Only!the!

Barrow!Canyon!hotspot!was!occupied!through!the!fall.!!Shared!hotspots!were!characterized!

by!strong!fronts!caused!by!upwelling!and!currents,!which!can!serve!to!aggregate!prey.!!Using!

a!different!approach,!Citta!et!al.!(2015)!provide!detailed!analysis!of!the!seasonal!movements!

and!habitat!use!by!a!single!species!throughout!one!year.!!Locations!from!54!bowhead!whales!

(Balaena'mysticetus),!obtained!by!satellite!telemetry!from!200602012,!were!used!to!identify!a

total!of!six!core0use!areas!in!the!Beaufort!(3),!Chukchi!(1)!and!northern!Bering!(2)!seas.!!

Taken!together,!the!timing!of!use!(phenology)!and!physical!characteristics!(oceanography,!sea!

ice,!and!winds)!associated!with!each!area,!describe!a!seasonal!circuit!by!the!whales!through!

areas!thought!to!support!elevated!prey!densities.

Passive!acoustic!sampling!has!become!a!common!year0round!tool!to!detect!calling!marine!

mammals!in!arctic!seas!(Moore!et!al.!2006;!Stafford!et!al.!2012).!!Since!2007,!there!has!been!

an!especially!strong!sampling!effort!associated!with!oil!and!gas!exploration!in!the!northeast!

Chukchi!and!western!Beaufort!seas!(e.g.,!Hannay!et!al.!2013;

http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/nmml/!cetacean/chaoz.php).!!These!recorder!deployments

augment!a!long0standing!acoustic!study!in!the!central!Beaufort!Sea!(Blackwell!et!al.,!2007)!

and!more!recent!deployments!in!the!Bering!Strait!region!(K.!Stafford,!pers.!comm.).!!

Heretofore,!researchers!conducted!each!of!these!studies!independently of!one!another.!!Clark!

et!al!(2015)!presents!a!novel!synthesis!of!the!combined!output!from!six!research!efforts!using!

four!types!of!recorders!and!a!variety!of!sub0sampling!and!analysis!schemes!to!describe!an!

‘acoustic!year’!in!the!life!of!the!bowhead!whale.!!Detections!of!bowhead!calls!from!20!sites!

extending!over!2,300!km!from!the!northern!Bering!Sea!to!the!southeast!Beaufort!Sea!were

combined!over!a!140month!period!(200902010)!to!describe!whale!occurrence!across!their!

range.!!The!spatial!and!temporal!variability!in!sound!levels!within!the!frequency!band!of!

bowhead!whales!was!also!quantified.!!The!lowest!underwater!sound!levels!occurred!from!late!

November!until!May!in!the!Chukchi!Sea.!!During!winter!200902010,!singing!bowhead!whales!

elevated!broadband!sound!levels!for!roughly!38!days!in!the!northern!Bering!Sea,!followed!by!

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a!second!month0long!period!of!elevated!sound!levels!due!to singing!by!bearded!seals.!!High0

wind!events!also!resulted!in!205!day!periods!of!elevated!sound!levels,!evident!on!multiple!

recorders!hundreds!of!miles!apart.!!Although!there!were!few!seismic!surveys!during!the!140

month!period,!air!gun!sounds!were!detected!in!the!Chukchi!Sea!in!late!summer!2009,!roughly!

700!km!away!from!the!seismic!survey!underway!in!the!eastern!Beaufort!Sea.!

In!a!second!paper!describing!the!acoustic!ecology!of!marine!mammals!in!the!Pacific!Arctic,!

MacIntyre!et!al.!(2015)!investigated!bearded!seal!calling!activity!in!relation!to!variability!in!

sea0ice!cover.!!Acoustic!data!were!analyzed!from!nine!recording!locations!extending!from!the!

Bering!to!the!western!Beaufort!Sea.!!Bearded!seals!were!vocally!active!nearly!year0round!in

the!Beaufort!and!Chukchi!seas,!with!peak!activity!occurring!during!the!springtime!mating!

season.!!Conversely,!bearded!seal!calling!activity!lasted!only!about!five!months!in!the!Bering!

Sea,!again!with!a!mating0season!peak!in!the!spring.!!!In!all!areas,!calling!activity!was positively!

correlated!with!sea0ice!cover!(p!<!0.01).!!These!results!suggest!that!losses!in!sea!ice!may!

negatively!impact!bearded!seals,!both!by!loss!of!haul0out!habitat!and!by!altering!the!temporal!

features!of!calling!for!bearded!seals!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!sector.!

4.2!Diet'and'body'condition!!

For!a!bowhead!whale,!changes!associated!with!the!new!biophysical!conditions!in!the!Pacific!

Arctic!may!be!a!'good!bump'!in!a!long!road.!!Bowhead!whales!can!live!for!a!century!or!more,!

with!a!few!whales!estimated!to!have!lived!over!200!years!(George!et!al.!1999).!!The!Bering0

Chukchi0Beaufort!(BCB)!population!is!still!recovering!in!number!from!roughly!170!years!of!

commercial!whaling,!which!ended!around!1920,!so!responses!by!this!species!to!recent!

changes!in!the!marine!ecosystem!must!be!interpreted!in!that!context.!!George!et!al.!(2015)!

examined!the!relationship!between!body!condition!of!BCB!bowhead!whales!and!inter0annual!

variability!in!summertime!environmental!conditions!(seasonal!sea0ice!cover!and!wind!stress)!

for!whales!harvested!by!Alaskan!hunters!from!198902011.!!During!this!period,!there!was!a!

significant!increase!in!axillary!girth!(fatness)!associated!with!the!reduction!in!sea!ice!and!

shifts!in!wind!stress!to!patterns!associated!with!upwelling!along!the!slope!and!shelf!of!the!

Beaufort!Sea.!!Specifically,!strong!positive!correlations!were!described!between!whale!girth!

and!late0summer!open!water!fraction!in!the!Beaufort!Sea,!and!with!open!water!and!upwelling0

favorable!winds!in!areas!of!the!Mackenzie!Delta!and!waters!west!of!Banks!Island.!Whether

due!to!increased!secondary!productivity!associated!with!upwelling,!or!due!to!a!longer!feeding!

period!associated!with!reduced!ice!cover,!the!improved!body!condition!of!whales!in!the!BCB!

bowhead!population!suggest!they!are!finding!increased!access!to!prey!in!the!new!normal!

Pacific!Arctic.!!!!

The!utility!of!looking!to!UTL!species!as!ecosystem!sentinels!is!further!explored!in!Harwood!et!

al.!(2015),!where!body!condition!of!five!predators,!monitored!from!harvests!in!the!Beaufort!

Sea!over!the!past!204!decades,!indicate!that!all!have!been!affected!by!biophysical!changes!in!

the!marine!ecosystem.!!Improved!body!condition!is!described!for!Arctic!char!(Salvelinus'

alpinus)!and!sub0adult!bowhead!whales,!primarily!associated!with!the!extent!and!persistence!

29
of!sea!ice.!!Conversely,!three!species,!which!likely!feed!primarily!on!arctic!cod!(ringed!seal,!

beluga!and!black!guillemot!chicks),!showed!declines!in!condition,!growth!and/or!production!

during!the!same!period.!!Although!the!proximate!causes!of!these!contrasting!changes!are!

unknown,!they!are!likely!mediated!by!an!upward!trend!in!secondary!productivity!

accompanied!by!a!downtrend!in!the!availability!of!forage!fish,!especially!Arctic!cod,!a!key!

species!in!arctic!food!webs.!!Notably,!the!reported!decline!in!body!condition!for!ringed!seals!

contrast!with!the!changes reported!in!Crawford!et!al.!(2015),!but!this!may!be!due!to!

differences!in!prey!availability!in!sub0regions!of!the!Pacific!Arctic!where!the!harvested!seals!

were!feeding;!i.e.,!the!eastern!Beaufort!Sea!(Harwood!et!al. 2015)!and!the!Bering0Chukchi!

(Crawford!et!al. 2015).!!Similar!contrasts!in!size!and!body!condition!for!polar!bears!(Ursus'

maritimus)!were!recently!described!for!animals!from!the!Chukchi!Sea!(good)!and!the!Beaufort!

Sea!(poor)!populations!(Rode!et!al.,!2013).!!Indeed,!Harwood!et!al.!(2015)!advocate!the!

inclusion!of!multiple!UTL!species!in!the!sampling!design!of!future!marine!ecosystem!research!

programs,!at!ecologically!relevant!spatial!and!temporal!scales.!!

5.))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

The!biophysics!and!marine!ecology!of!the!Pacific!Arctic!region!is!a!study!in!contrasts,!resulting!

from!differing!processes!that!occur!over!the!broad!and!shallow!inflow!shelves!of!the!northern!

Bering!and!Chukchi!seas,!compared!to!the!narrow!interior!shelf,!steep!slope!and!deep!basin!of!

the!Beaufort!Sea.!!Carmack!and!Wassmann!(2006)!provide!a!pan0Arctic!overview!on!the!role!

of!shelves!in!guiding!oceanographic!processes,!and!promote!shelf!geography!as!a!unifying!

concept!with!regard!to!linking!physical!processes!to!food!webs.!!!Using!this!concept,!Carmack!

and!Wassmann!(2006)!identified!the!Pacific!Arctic!region!as!one!of!four!contiguous!domains!

comprising!the!pan0Arctic;!the!other!three!are!the!seasonal!ice!zone!domain,!the!pan0Arctic!

marginal!(shelf0break!and!slope)!domain!and!the!riverine!coastal!domain.!!As!described!in!

Wood!et!al.!(2015),!hydrography!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!region!is!defined!by!Pacific!waters!

entering!the!Chukchi!through!Bering!Strait,!warming!as!they!are!advected!through!the

Chukchi!Sea!and!circulating!at!depths!<!200m!within!the!Beaufort!gyre!of!the!Canada!Basin.!

The!entrapment!of!this!inflow!within!the!gyre!increases!the!volume!of!fresh!water!and!

intensifies!stratification!with!the!warmer0saltier!Atlantic!water!below.

The!role!of!sea!ice!in!regulating!pelagic0benthic!coupling!(see Fig.!4)!is!the!foundational!model!

regarding!the!structure!of!food!webs!on!the!broad!in0flow!shelves.!!Indeed,!the!biophysics!and!

ecology!of!benthic!communities!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!is!fully!described!in!Grebmeier!et!al.!

(2015a).!!!However,!nutrients!and!expatriate!zooplankton!from!the!northern!Bering!Sea!are!

also!advected!in!Pacific!water!across!the!wide!Chukchi!shelf!and!into!the!Beaufort!Sea!(Nelson!

et!al.!2014),!and!the!role!of!this!transport!is!often!ignored!in!conceptual!models!of!the!marine!

ecosystems.!!Clearly,!advected!prey!are!important!to!UTL!species!–!one!example!being!the!

consumption!of!Pacific!species!of!euphausiids!by!bowhead!whales!at!Barrow!and!as!far!east!as!

Kaktovik,!Alaska!in!the!eastern!Beaufort!Sea!(Lowry!et!al.,!2004).!!!A!new!conceptual!model!is!

30
required!to!capture!the!complex!interconnectivity!between!the!role!of!pelagic0benthic

coupling!and!that!of!the!strongly!seasonal!transport!of!heat,!nutrients!and!prey!into!the!

region.!!!

5.1!Ecosystem'conceptual'models'and'visualization'tools:''the'‘Arctic'Marine'Pulse’'model

The!sea0ice!driven!pelagic0benthic!coupling!model!has!served!the!science!community!well!for!

nearly!three!decades!(Grebmeier!2012,!and!references!therein).!!While!the!pelagic0benthic

model!serves!as!a!strong!framework!for!depicting!processes!on!the!shallow!shelf!habitat!of!

the!northern!Bering!and!Chukchi!seas,!it!does!not!depict!the!interactive!processes!occurring!

along!the!narrow!interior!shelf,!slope!and!deep!basin!of!the!Beaufort!Sea.!Carmack!and!

Wassman!(2006)!advocate!for!the!development!of!“an!ecology!of!advection”!to!advance!

ecosystem!models!that!can!support!inter0comparisons!of!existing!and!future!arctic!food!webs.!!!

Grebmeier!et!al.!(2015b)!provide!a!comprehensive!conceptual!model!linking!advective!

processes!in!the!Chukchi!and!Beaufort.!!The!input!function!for!this!model!is!the!advection!

north!of!Pacific!Water!(comprised!of!AW,!BSW,!ACW;!see!Fig.!1).!!The!three!pathways!for!this!

inflow!cross!the!Chukchi!Sea,!then!enter!the!Beaufort!Sea!primarily!at!canyons!with!further!

advective!processes,!including!eddy!shedding,!along!the!slope.!!Freshwater!inflow!from!the!

Yukon!and!Mackenzie!rivers!is!depicted,!as!is!nearshore!outflow!of!Siberian!Coastal!Water

(SCW)!along!the!Russian!north!coast.!!This!conceptual!advective!model!is!an!essential!tool!to!

frame!our!understanding!of!the!Pacific!Arctic!marine!ecosystem,!but!remains!a!comparatively!

static!representation!of!very!dynamic!processes.!!!

The!‘krill!trap’!model,!developed!during!a!study!of!bowhead!whales!feeding!on!euphausiids!

transported!to!local!waters!near!Barrow,!provides!a!starting!point!to!animate!an!advective!

model!for!a!portion!of!the!Pacific!Arctic!region!(Ashjian!et!al.,!2010).!!Physical!drivers!of!this!

local0area!model!invoke!wind!forcing,!shelf0break!topography!and!current!structure!along!

Barrow!Canyon!to!explain!the!retention!of!krill!along!a!front!on!the!western!Beaufort!shelf!

(Okkonen!et!al.,!2011).!!This!dynamic!model!essentially!“rocks!back!and!forth”!between!two!

states:!!upwelling'of'prey and!nutrients!onto!the!narrow!shelf!induced!by!easterly!winds,!and!

prey'retention!induced!by!relaxed!or!southerly!winds.!!This!model!focuses!on!only!the!western!

Beaufort!Sea,!however,!and!requires!expansion!to!serve!the!full!Pacific!Arctic!region.!!

We!propose!an!initial!form!of!the!Arctic!Marine!Pulses!(AMP)!conceptual!model!for!the!Pacific!

sector,!which!aims!to!both!animate'the!Grebmeier!et!al.!(2015a)!advection!model!and!link'it!to!

the!pelagic0benthic!coupling!model!(Fig.!6).!!

31
Figure)6.))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)–)linking)pelagicVbenthic)

coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous)

domains.

In!this!way,!the!zooplankton!and!forage!fish!predicted!by!the!pelagic0benthic!model!with!the!

loss!of!sea!ice!are!advected!across!the!Chukchi!and!into!the!Beaufort!Sea!by!the!advective!

model.!!The!AMP!model!employs!the!contiguous!domain!concept,!described!in!Carmack!and!

Wassmann!(2006),!to!join!physical!habitats!by!the!integration!of!common!features!such!as!the!

seasonal!cycles!of!inflow!at!Bering!Strait,!sea0ice!advance!and!retreat,!and!riverine!export.!!

Specifically,!within!the!overall!geographic!domain!of!the!Pacific!Arctic,!the!AMP!model!

connects!three!dynamic!contiguous!domains!(Fig.!7):

(i)!Seasonal'ice'zone'domain!–!seasonal!ice!retreat!serves!to!link!the!AMP!model!to!the!pelagic0

benthic!coupling!model.!!Timing!and!pace!of!sea0ice!retreat!across!the!Chukchi!Sea!drives

pulses!of!organic!material!either!to!the!benthos,!or!towards!the!pelagic!system;!sea0ice!retreat

beyond!the!narrow!Beaufort!shelf!in!late!summer!allows!the!system!to!respond!to!winds!that!

can!induce!pulses of!upwelling!of!nutrients!and!prey!onto!the!shelf;!!

(ii)!Pacific'marginal'domain!–!the!Beaufort!Sea!shelf!break!and!slope!is!a!transport!pathway

for!nutrients!and!prey!advected!across!the!Chukchi!Sea;!this!marginal!domain!also!provides!

links!to!the!deep!basin!where!stores!of!nutrients!and!prey!can!be!upwelled!by!wind!forcing!

after!the!sea0ice!retreats;!Herald!and!Barrow!canyons!are!focal!points!of!shelf0basin!exchange

(i.e.!secondary!pulse0points)!although!local!winds!can!reverse!flow;

32
(iii)!Riverine'coastal'domain!–!the!Yukon!and!Mackenzie!river!outflows!provide!seasonal

pulses!of!warm!and!fresh!water!to!the!northern!Bering!and!Beaufort!seas,!respectively.!!In!the!

Beaufort,!the!Mackenzie!outflow!can!trap!nutrients!and!prey.!!The!Mackenzie!outflow!has!

increased!dramatically!over!the!past!decade!(Wood!et!al.,!2015)!and,!with!increased!seasonal

run0off,!the!Sagavanirktok!and!Colville!rivers!may!have!greater!influence!now!than!in!the!past.!

Figure)7.)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model,)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in)

three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific)

Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno,)2015).

33
SOAR!PHASE!II

1.!!Background

In!2015,!several!new!synthesis!teams!were!formed!and!work!commenced!on!a!second!SOAR!

special!issue,!the!culmination!of!which!are!the!fifteen!peer0reviewed!papers!to!be published in!

a!special!volume!of!Deep@Sea'Research'Part'II.! Below!we!provide!an!overview!of!findings!and

syntheses!published!in!those!individual!papers,!structured!around!the!framework!of!the!

"Arctic!Marine!Pulses"!conceptual!model!and!its!three!ecological!domains,!introduced!in!the!

preceding!SOAR!Phase!I!discussion.!

2.!The!Arctic!Marine!Pulses!conceptual!model!

The!Arctic!Marine!Pulses!(AMP)!conceptual!model!was!initially!developed!to!provide!an!

overarching!synthesis!of!results!presented!in!papers!comprising!the!first!SOAR!special!issue!

(see!preceding!synthesis!and!discussion!of!SOAR!Phase!I;!Moore!and!Stabeno,!2015).!!!In!brief,!

the!AMP!model!uses!the!concept!of!ecological!domains!as!a!framework!to!focus!investigative!

attention!on!seasonal!oceanographic!pulsive!events!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!region!over!an!annual

cycle!(Fig.!7).!!The!AMP!model!is!further!developed!in!Moore!et!al.!(in!press),!wherein!the!

phenology!of!pelagic0benthic!coupling!and!advective!processes!are!described!and!linked!to

examples!of!how!benthic!macrofaunal!and!upper0trophic!species!respond!to!changes!in!

ecosystem!structure.!!The!AMP!model!aims!to!encourage!multi0disciplinary!research!and,!with!

its!focus!on!phenology!of!events!over!an!annual!cycle,!may!serve!to!facilitate!communication!

between!conventional!science!and!Indigenous!Knowledge.!!

In!this!synthesis!and!discussion!of!the!second!SOAR!special!issue,!we!use!three!ecological

domains!that!frame!the!AMP!model!to!structure!an!overview!of!results!presented!in!this!

special!issue!(Fig.!8).!!!

34
Figure)8.))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea)

Research)Part)II),)identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic)

Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al.,)in)press).

The!Seasonal!Ice!Zone!domain!is!defined!by!the!limits!of!sea0ice!extent!in!March!(maximum)!

and!September!(minimum)!and!thereby!includes!continental!shelf,!slope!and!deep!basin!

habitats!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!(Fig.!1:!bounded!by!orange!lines).!!In!contrast,!the!Marginal!and!

the!Riverine!Coastal!domains!are!more!narrowly!defined!by!(i)!the!steep!bathymetry!of!the!

continental!slope!and!canyons!in!the!northern!Chukchi!and!Beaufort!seas!and!(ii)!nearshore!

waters!influenced!by!river!discharge,!respectively!(Carmack!and!Wassman,!2006;!Carmack!et!

al.,!2015).!!!By!using!these!ecological!domains!to!frame!results!presented!in!the!papers!

comprising!this!special!issue,!we!aim!to!further!explore!the!utility!of!the!AMP!model!for!

integrating!biophysical!processes!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!region,!thereby!fulfilling!the!

overarching!goal!of!the!SOAR!project!to!better!understand!this!dynamic!marine!ecosystem.!!

3.!!Seasonal!Ice!Zone!Domain!

3.1'Physics:''Sea@Ice'Models'and'Ocean'Reanalysis

The!decrease!in!sea0ice!extent,!volume!and!duration!over!the!past!three!decades!is!an!iconic!

feature!of!a!changing!climate!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!(Wood!et!al.,!2015;!Frey!et!al.,!2015;!Wang!

and!Overland,!2015).!!With!sea0ice!cover!declining!rapidly,!shifts!in!the!timing!of!break0up!and

35
freeze0up!have!become!urgent!scientific,!social!and!economic!concerns.!!Wang!et!al.!(in!press)!

analyzed!daily!sea0ice!concentration!data!to!assess!the!dates!of!sea0ice!break0up!and!freeze0

up,!and!thereby!derive!a!trend!in!sea0ice!duration!for!the!period!199002015!and!a!projection!

of!sea0ice!duration!to!mid0century!(2044).!!The!analysis,!based!on!simulation!results!from!the!

coupled!Atmosphere0Ocean!General!Circulation!Models!from!Phase!5!of!the!Coupled!Model!

Intercomparison!Project!(CMIP5),!was!conducted!both!at!the!broad!scale!of!the!Pacific!Arctic!

region!and!at!regional!and!local!scales!as!defined!by!the!eight!regions!of!the!Distributed!

Biological!Observatory!(https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/dbo/)!and!by!eight!oceanographic!

mooring!sites!in!the!northeast!Chukchi!Sea,!respectively.!!!Wang!et!al.!(in!press)!show!that!the!

duration!of!sea0ice!cover!is!declining,!with!the!strongest!trend!apparent!during!the!19900

2015!period.!!The!300year!averaged!trend!was!projected!to!be!from!00.68!days/year!to!01.2!

days/year!for!the!period!201502044,!which!is!equivalent!to!a!20!to!36!day!reduction!in!annual!

sea0ice!duration.!!Similar!results!were!found!at!both!regional!and!local!scales.!!The!models!

indicate!that!while!the!shortening!of!the!sea0ice!season!is!driven!by!both!later!freeze0up!and

earlier!break0up,!the!delay!in!freeze0up!is!the!larger!contributor.!!Projected!changes!in!sea0ice!

duration!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!exhibit!spatial!variance,!with!the!Bering!Strait!area!projected!to!

experience!a!decrease!of!less!than!200day duration!over!the!next!30!years,!while!the!East!

Siberian,!Chukchi!and!Beaufort!seas!are!projected!to!experience!a!600day!reduction!by!mid0

century.!!The!dramatic!reduction!in!sea0ice!duration!has!driven!and!will!continue!to!drive!

changes!in!the!marine!ecosystem!of!the!Pacific!Arctic,!while!also!both!fostering!offshore!

commercial!activities!and!impeding!local!access!to!resources!for!inhabitants!of!coastal

communities.!

The!changing!oceanography!during!the!open0water!season!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!was!the!focus!

of!a!reanalysis!study!undertaken!by!Bond!et!al.!(in!press).!!Specifically,!the!physical!

oceanographic!conditions!extant!from!June!through!October!on!the!Chukchi!Sea!shelf!were!

investigated!using!the!ORAS4!ocean!reanalysis!software!for!the!period!197902014.!!Time!

series!of!vertically!integrated!temperatures!showed!greater!warming!(especially!during!

September!and!October)!in!the!first!half!of!the!360year!record,!a!finding!that!might!be!

attributed!to!trends!in!mean!currents!at!Chukchi!Sea!canyons!that!were!less!poleward!after!

2000.!!Five!distinct!patterns!of!flow!were!derived!using!a!k0means!cluster!analysis!of!monthly!

mean!sea0surface!height!anomaly!distributions.!!Two!of!the!five!patterns!related!to!the!

strength!of!the!Alaskan!Coastal!Current!(ACC)!in!the!eastern!Chukchi!Sea,!two!patterns!related!

to!periods!of!northwestward!versus!southeastward!flow!associated!with!the!absence!or!

presence!of!the!Siberian!Coastal!Current!in!the!northwest!Chukchi!Sea,!and!one!pattern!was!

defined!by!weak!southeastward!flow!anomalies!in!the!western!Chukchi!and!a!suppressed!ACC!

relative!to!the!mean!in!the!eastern!Chukchi!Sea.!The!composite!sea0surface!height!anomaly!

patterns!of!the!five!cluster!types!conform!to!the!mean!sea!level!pressure!anomaly!

distributions!for!the!months!constituting!each!type.!!The!description!of!five!distinct!flow!

patterns!provides!a!long0term!context!for!previous!field!observations,!and!may!contribute!to!

the!interpretation!of!observed!changes!in!the!structure!and!function!of!the!marine!ecosystem!

of!the!Chukchi!Sea.

36
3.2'Biophysical'Observations:''sediment'deposition'patterns,'corrosive'water'formation'and'‘in'

situ’'primary'production'measurements! !

Examining!factors!that!influence!sedimentation!and!bioturbation!is!key!to!understanding!

pelagic0benthic!linkages!that!can!foster!high0productivity!macrobenthic!communities!on!the!

continental!shelves!of!the!Pacific!Arctic!region!(Grebmeier!et!al.!2015!a,!b).!!!To!examine!

deposition!patterns!on!the!broad!Chukchi!continental!shelf,!Cooper!and!Grebmeier!(in!press)!

assayed!40!sediment!cores!for!the!sedimentation!tracer!137Cs,!originating!from!bomb!fallout,!

and!34!cores!for!210Pb.!!!Because!both!sedimentation!and!bioturbation!influence!how!these

tracers!are!distributed!vertically!in!sediments,!only!about!half!of!the!cores!had!distinct,!single!

mid0depth!or!subsurface!maximum!activity!peaks!associated!with!137Cs.!!Similarly,!only!14!of!

the!34!cores!assayed!showed!a!consistent!decline!in!excess!sedimentary!210Pb!with!depth!in!

the!core.!!Furthermore,!sedimentation!rate!estimates!from!210Pb!assays!were!only!consistent!

with!estimated!137Cs!sedimentation!rates!in!5!of!the!14!cores.!!A!high!degree!of!bioturbation!

on!the!shelf!is!primarily!responsible!for!these!patterns,!although!the!influence!of!

sedimentation!on!vertical!profiles!is!also!important,!particularly!in!areas!of!low!accumulation!

where!shallow!burial!of!maximum!burdens!of!137Cs!occur!in!areas!with!strong!currents!such!

as!Herald!Canyon.!!Shallow!burial!of!137Cs!is!also!observed!in!comparatively!low!

sedimentation!areas!such!as!Hanna!Shoal,!on!the!northeast!Chukchi!shelf.!!Conversely,!

elsewhere!on!the!northeast!Chukchi!shelf!and!in!productive!benthic!“hotspots,”!the!stronger!

influence!of!bioturbation!leads!to!more!even!vertical!distribution!of!137Cs!within!sediments.!!

These!profiles!of!137Cs!reflect!several!other!sediment!characteristics!that!are!affected!by!

current!flow,!which!in!turn!impact!biological!activity,!including!grain!size,!carbon!to!nitrogen!

ratios!of!the!organic!fraction!of!surface!sediments!and!total!organic!carbon!content.!The!

distribution!patterns!of!the!radionuclides,!particularly!the!depth!where!137Cs!reaches!

maximum!activity,!reflects!sedimentation!under!both!sluggish!and!strong!currents.!The

activity!of!137Cs!at!that!depth!of!maximum!activity!also!provides!insights!on!how!much!the!

vertical!distribution!of!the!radionuclide!has!been!impacted!by!bioturbation,!as!well!as!the!

characteristics!of!the!sediments!that!play!a!role!in!influencing!deposition!and!total!inventories!

of!137Cs!on!continental!shelves.!

Ocean!acidification!(OA),!the!term!used!to!describe!the!progressive!decrease!in!ocean!water!

pH!and!carbonate!ion!concentration!coincident!with!the!uptake!of!anthropogenic!CO2,!is!now!

a!well0described!global!phenomenon!with!the!potential!to!negatively!impact!marine!

ecosystems!(Feely!et!al.,!2009;!Mathis!et!al.,!2015,!and!references!therein).!!!Cross!et!al.!(in!

press)!synthesize!data!from!process!studies!across!the!Pacific!Arctic!region!to!describe!the!

formation!of!conditions!in!cold!and!dense!winter0modified!shelf!waters!that!are!corrosive!to!

biologically!important!carbonate!minerals.!!When!these!corrosive!waters!are!subsequently!

transported!off!the!shelf,!they!acidify!the!Pacific!halocline.!Cross!et!al.!(in!press)!estimate!that!

Barrow!Canyon!outflow!delivers!~2.24!Tg!C/yr!of!corrosive!winter!water!to!the!Arctic!Ocean.!

The!combination!of!spatial!and!temporal!data!demonstrates!the!seasonal!variability!and

persistence!of!corrosive!conditions!in!halocline!waters.!For!example,!one!study!indicated!that!

37
0.5!–1.7!Tg!C/yr!may!be!returned!to!the!atmosphere!via!air0sea!gas!exchange!of!CO2!during!

upwelling!events!along!the!Beaufort!Sea!shelf!that!bring!Pacific!halocline!waters!to!the!ocean!

surface.!The!loss!of!CO2!during!these!events!is!more!than!sufficient!to!eliminate!corrosive!

conditions!in!the!upwelled!Pacific!halocline!waters.!However,!corresponding!moored!and!

discrete!data!records!indicate!that!potentially!corrosive!Pacific!waters!are!present!in!the!

Beaufort!shelf0break!jet!during!80%!of!the!year,!indicating!that!the!persistence!of!acidified

waters!in!the!Pacific!halocline!far!outweighs!any!seasonal!mitigation!from!upwelling.!!By!

comparing!multiple!broad0scale!datasets,!Cross!et!al.!(in!press)!suggest!that!the!persistent

corrosive!conditions!of!the!Pacific!halocline!is!a!recent!phenomenon!that!first!appeared!

sometime!between!1975!and!1985.!Since!then,!these!potentially!corrosive!waters!originating!

over!the!continental!shelves!have!been!observed!as!far east!as!the!entrances!to!Amundsen!

Gulf!and!M’Clure!Strait!(ca.'1250W!longitude)!in!the!Canadian!Arctic!Archipelago.!The!

formation!and!transport!of!corrosive!waters!on!the!Pacific!Arctic!shelves!may!have!

widespread!impact!on!the!Arctic!biogeochemical!system!and!food!web!reaching!all!the!way!to!

the!North!Atlantic.!

Annual!net!primary!production!over!the!Arctic!Ocean,!as!measured!from!satellites,!increased!

30%!between!199802012,!with!upturns!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!region!reported!as!42.1%!

(Chukchi),!53.1%%!(Beaufort)!and!67.7%!(East!Siberian)!during!that!period!(Arrigo!and!van!

Dijken,!2015).!!While!informative,!measures!from!remote!sensing!reflect!only!what!is!

happening!in!the!surface!layer!of!the!ocean!and!miss!sub0surface!primary!production.!!Hill!et!

al.!(in!press)!provide!a!synthesis!of!available!in'situ'primary!production!measurements!made!

in!the!Pacific!Arctic!between!1950!and!2012.!!Specifically,!integrated!primary!production!was!

calculated!from!524!profiles,!340!of!which!were!analyzed!to!determine!the!vertical!

distribution!of!primary!production!rates!for!spring,!summer!and!fall.!!The!northern!Bering!Sea!

(Chirikov!Basin)!and!Chukchi!shelf!were!the!most!productive!areas,!with!the!East!Siberian!

Sea,!Chukchi!Plateau!and!Canada!Basin!the!lowest.!!Decadal0scale!changes!included:!!(i)!a!

significant!increase!in!PP!rate!and!the!loss!of!a!measurable!subsurface!peak!between!1959/60!

and!the!2000s!in!the!southern!Chukchi!Sea,!and!(ii)!an!earlier!phytoplankton!surface!bloom!in!

the!northeastern!Chukchi!Sea!(Hanna!Shoal)!in!the!2000s!compared!to!1993!that!is!associated!

with!increased!light!due!to!sea0ice!retreat.!!These!changes!in!primary!production!have!likely!

fueled!cascading!effects!in!food!webs!of!the!Pacific!Arctic!marine!ecosystem.!!

3.3'Ecosystem'Structure:''responses'of'marine'mammals'to'changing'habitats'

The!range!of!the!Bering0Chukchi0Beaufort!population!of!bowhead!whale!(Balaena'mysticetus)!

extends!across!the!seasonal!ice!zone!of!the!Pacific!Arctic.!!The!majority!of!whales!summer!in!

the!eastern!Beaufort!Sea!and!winter!in!the!Bering!Sea,!migrating!across!the!Chukchi!Sea!in!

spring!and!autumn!while!occupying!distinct!core0use!areas!in!each!region!(Citta!et!al.,!2015).!!!

The!rapid!loss!of!sea0ice!over!the!past!two!decades!has!changed!bowhead!habitats!

substantially,!with!many!areas!now!regularly!ice0free!when!whales!are!present.!

Druckenmiller!et!al.!(in!press)!examined!changes!in!the!number!of!open!water!days!(OWD)!

within!annual!bowhead!whale!core0use!areas!from!197902014,!and!within!the!western!

38
Beaufort!Sea!(140°W0157°W;!to!72°N)!sampled!via!aerial!surveys!each!autumn!198202014.!

The!most!dramatic!reductions!in!sea0ice!cover!have!taken!place!in!the!western!Beaufort!Sea,!

where!the!number!of!OWD!on!the!shelf!and!slope!have!increased!by!20!and!25!days/decade,!

respectively.!!!Ice!cover!has!decreased!more!in!northern!than!in!southern!core0use!areas.!!

Specifically,!the!numbers!of!OWD!within!the!core0use!areas!near!Point!Barrow!and!along!the!

northern!Chukotka!coast!have!increased!by!13!and!10!days/decade,!respectively,!while!sea0

ice!cover!has!not!substantially!changed!within!the!winter!core0use!area!near!the!Gulf!of!

Anadyr.!!From!analysis!of!aerial!survey!data,!Druckenmiller!et!al.!(in!press)!report!that!during!

the!autumn!migration!across!the!Beaufort!Sea,!bowheads!prefer!habitats!closer!to!

shore than to!the!ice!edge!and!that!their distance!to shore!decreases!as!the!fraction!of!open!

water!increases.!This!distribution!may!be!a!response!to!increased!feeding!opportunities!

closer!to!shore,!resulting!from!greater!upwelling!along!the!shelf!break!when!the!ice!retreats!

far!from!shore.!The!aerial!survey!data!also!revealed!a!substantial!shift!toward!Point!Barrow!in!

the!whales’!use!of!the!western!Beaufort!Sea!during!autumn!199702014!compared!to!autumn!

198201996.!!In!the!future,!reduced!sea!ice!in!the!southern!Chukchi!Sea!may!make!wintering!

there!more!common!and!whale!movements!in!summer!and!autumn!may!become!more!

variable!as!productivity!and!zooplankton!aggregations!are!altered!in!response!to!sea0ice!loss!

and!shifting!ocean!dynamics.!

The!underwater!acoustic!environment!is!key!to!the!behavioral!ecology!of!all!marine!mammals!

(e.g.,!Erbe!et!al.,!2015)!and!has!received!detailed!study!with!regard!to!its!influence!on!

bowhead!whale!movements!(e.g.,!Clark!et!al.,!2015;!Ellison!et!al.,!2016).!!Stafford!et!al.!(in!

press,!a)!describe!the!underwater!acoustic!environment!of!beluga!(Delphinapterus'leucas)!and!

bowhead!whales!in!three!regions!containing!core0use!areas!(Citta!et!al.,!2015),!examined!

during!months!in!which!both!species!occur!therein;!i.e.:!(1)!January0March,!in!the!St.!

Lawrence!Island/Anadyr!Strait!region,!(2)!November0January,!in!the!Bering!Strait!region,!and!

(3)!August0October,!in!the!Barrow!Canyon!region.!Biological!sounds!(primarily!calls!from!

bowhead!whales,!walruses!and!bearded!seals)!dominated!the!acoustic!environment!in!the!St.!

Lawrence!Island/Anadyr!Strait!region,!which!was!covered!by!sea!ice!throughout!the!months!

studied.!!In!the!Bering!Strait!region,!whales!were!exposed!primarily!to!environmental!noise!

(mostly!from!wind)!before!the!region!was!ice!covered!in!November;!by!December,!biological!

sounds!(from!calling!bowheads!and!walruses)!became!most!prevalent.!!Transient!but!acute!

anthropogenic!noise!(from!vessels!and!air!guns)!were!a!large!contributor!to!the!underwater!

acoustic!environment!in!the!Barrow!Canyon!region!in!late!summer!and!autumn!during!the!

200902010!study!period;!this!was!also!the!only!region!in!which!the!two!species!co0occurred!

during!open!water!period.!During!open!water!conditions,!both!near!Barrow!Canyon!and!in!

Bering!Strait,!underwater!noise!levels!were!tightly!correlated!with!wind,!as!is generally!the!

case!throughout!the!world!ocean.!!Stafford!et!al.!(in!press,!a)!suggest!that!recent!increases!in!

the!open!water!period!associated!with!climate!change!are!fostering!increased!noise!levels!

aggregated!from!multiple!sound!sources!(atmospheric,!biological,!anthropogenic),!thus!

rapidly!altering!the!underwater!acoustic!environment!for!marine!mammals!in!the!Pacific!

Arctic.!!

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A!description!of!the!fine0scale!movements!of!bowhead!whales!across!the!Chukchi!Sea!during!

the!autumn!migration!is!provided!by!Citta!et!al.!(in!press,!a),!derived!from!an!analysis!of!

telemetry!data!obtained!from!200602010!and!2012.!!In!some!years,!whales!migrated!directly!

to!the!northern!coast!of!Chukotka,!while!in!other!years!whales!paused!migration!and!lingered!

in!the!central!Chukchi!Sea,!presumably!to!feed.!!To!investigate!how!whale!movements!were!

related!to!oceanographic!variables,!bowhead!whale!habitat!selection!was!examined!at!both!

landscape!and!local!scales!using!a!correlated!random!walk!model!and!oceanographic!data!

from!a!pan0arctic!ice0ocean!model.!!At!the!landscape!scale,!Citta!et!al.!(in!press,!a)!found!that!

whales!generally!followed!cold0saline!water!of!Pacific!origin!and!avoided!the!comparatively!

warm0fresh!waters!of!the!Alaskan!Coastal!and!Siberian!Coastal!currents.!At!the!local!scale,!

whales!were!more!likely!to!linger!in!central0Chukchi!areas!characterized!by!strong!gradients!

in!bottom!salinity,!which!have!been!associated!with!areas!of!dense!zooplankton!

concentrations!in!other!studies.

Tracking!the!aggregate!movements!of!pelagic!marine!predators!has!increasingly!become!a!

means!to!identify!ecological!patterns!in!ocean!ecosystems!(e.g.,!Hussey!et!al.,!2015;!Block!et!

al.,!2011).!!Citta!et!al.!(in!press,!b)!present!the!first!systematic!analysis!of!telemetry!data!for!

seven!marine!mammal!species!(four!pinniped!and!three!cetacean)!that!routinely!occupy!

Pacific!Arctic!waters,!and!summarize!their!collective!distributions!for!two!temporal!periods!

labeled!summer!(May0November)!and!winter!(December0April).!!When!examined!for!overlap,!

six!multi0species!core0use!areas!were!identified!in!summer!and!four!in!winter.!!In!summer,!

four!of!the!six!multi0species!core0use!areas!occurred!in!the!Bering!Strait!region!and!the!

northwestern!coast!of!Alaska,!and!included!tracks!from!most!of!the!species!studied.!!The!two!

other!summer!core0use!areas!were!in!the!Canadian!Archipelago,!largely!defined!by!the!tracks!

of!bowhead!whales!and!Eastern!Beaufort!Sea!beluga!whales.!!In!winter,!the!main!multi0

species!core0use!area!stretched!from!the!Gulf!of!Anadyr!northwards!through!Anadyr!and!

Bering!Straits,!which!includes!an!area!of!enhanced!primary!and!secondary!productivity!

(“green!belt”)!in!the!Bering!Sea.!!Citta!et!al.!(in!press,!b)!also!provide!a!list!of!extant!telemetry!

data!and!data!holders,!with!an!appeal!that!these!baseline!data!be!archived!to!ensure!they!are!

available!for!future!retrospective!analyses!to!track!changes!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!marine!

ecosystem.!!!

4.!!Marginal!Domain:!Barrow'Canyon'and'the'Beaufort'slope

Atmospheric!forcing,!advection!and!upwelling!along!Barrow!Canyon!and!the!continental!slope

of!the!western!Beaufort!Sea!have!been!the!subject!of!investigation!for!decades,!although!

biological!sampling!rarely!extends!beyond!measures!of!nutrients!and!chlorophyll0a!(e.g.,!

Pickart!et!al.,!2013a,!b).!!!Rand!et!al.!(in!press)!use!environmental!variables!and!biological!

traits!to!characterize!two!Arctic!epibenthic!invertebrate!communities!in!and!adjacent!to!

Barrow!Canyon.!!Data!were!analyzed!from!two!standardized!bottom0trawl!surveys,!one in!the!

northeast!Chukchi!Sea!(2013)!and!the!second!in!the!western!Beaufort!Sea!(2008).!!In!the!

Chukchi!Sea,!bottom!hardness!and!depth!were!the!key variables!explaining!pattern!in!the!

epibenthic!community,!while!in!the!Beaufort!Sea!unlined!net!hauls!and!depth!were!the!main!

40
explanatory!variables.!!Although!epibenthic!communities!in!each!region!differed!

taxonomically!in!abundance!and!distribution,!an!analysis!of!biological!traits!showed!that!they!

were!functionally!similar.!!!These!results!complement!earlier!descriptions!of!epibenthic

communities!on!the!continental!shelf!of!the!northeastern!Chukchi!Sea,!where!distinct!

epibenthic!community!distribution!patterns!were!matched!with!bathymetrically0channeled!

water!masses!(Ravelo!et!al.,!2014).!!

Logerwell!et!al.!(2015)!described!fish!communities!across!a!spectrum!of!habitats!in!the!

western!Beaufort!and!northeastern!Chukchi!seas,!focusing!mainly!on!continental!shelf!

habitats.!!Logerwell!et!al.!(in!press)!augment!this!earlier!work!by!describing!results!of!two!

multidisciplinary!surveys!(2008!and!2013,!as!in!Rand!et!al.,!in!press)!focused!on!benthic!fish!

distribution!and!oceanographic!processes!in!and!around!Barrow!Canyon.!!The!density!of!

Arctic!cod!(Boreogadus'saida),!the!most!abundant!species,!was!related!to!bottom!depth,!

salinity!and!temperature,!both!in!Barrow!Canyon!and!along!the!continental!slope.!!Specifically,!

Arctic!cod!were!more!abundant!in!deep,!cold!and!highly!saline!water,!likely!advected!from!the!

Chukchi!Shelf!or!from!the!Arctic!Basin.!!Logerwell!et!al.!(in!press)!hypothesize!that!Arctic!cod!

occupy!these!habitats!to!take!advantage!of!energy0rich!copepods!transported!in!associated!

water!masses.!These!linkages!between!oceanographic!variables!and!benthic!fish!abundance!

suggest!that!advection,!sea0ice!dynamics!and!pelagic0benthic!coupling!are!all!important!for!

the!ecology!of!benthic!fishes!in!the!Pacific!Arctic.!!

Seasonal!patterns!of!distribution!and!density!of!two!distinct!populations!of!beluga!in!the!

western!Beaufort!Sea!(Stafford!et!al.!in!press,!b)!complements!the!Logerwell!et!al.!(in!press)!

findings!on!Arctic!cod.!!Combining!data!from!aerial!surveys,!passive!acoustic!sampling!and!

satellite!telemetry,!Stafford!et!al.!(in!press,!b)!show!that!the!Barrow!Canyon!and!Beaufort!Sea!

slope!are!key!habitats!for!both!Beaufort!and!Eastern!Chukchi!beluga!populations!from!April!

through!November.!Three!peaks!in!calling!activity occur!during!this!period,!corresponding!to!

migratory!pulses!of!the!Beaufort!(early!spring),!Chukchi!(late!spring)!and!both!(autumn)!

populations!!!A!model!of!beluga!density!derived!from!aerial!survey!data!showed!the!western!

region!of!the!Beaufort!Sea!slope!becomes!more!important!from!summer!to!autumn.!!

Telemetry!data!suggest!that!it!is!predominantly!the!Chukchi!belugas!that!use!this!habitat,!

except!in!September!when!both!populations!co0occur!there.!!!A!synthesis!of!the!combined!

datasets,!when!integrated!with!data!on!wind0driven!changes!in!local!currents!and!water!

masses,!suggested!that!belugas!are!very!capable!of!adapting!to!shifts!in!prey!densities!

associated!with!oceanographic variability.!

5.!!Riverine!Coastal!Domain:!Influence'of'coastal'process'on'bowhead'whales'and'people

The!Riverine!Coastal!domain!is!defined!as!a!narrow!(<15!km),!shallow!(~10!m)!contiguous!

feature!that!is!primarily!influenced!by!aggregate!terrestrial!runoff,!principally!in!river!

discharges!(Carmack!et!al.,!2015).!!!The!domain!is!the!primary!confluence!between!terrestrial!

and!marine!ecosystems!and!will!likely!have!a!more!prominent!role!in!modifying!coastal!

environmental!variability!as!terrestrial!runoff,!permafrost!thawing!and!sea0ice!losses!increase!

41
in!the!near0future!climate.!!Dramatic!shifts!in!the!extent!of!the!Mackenzie!River!plume!have!

already!been!reported,!whereby!the!domain!extends!beyond!the!nearshore/shallow!

definition,!with!a!surface!heat!and!fresh!water!signal!ranging!far!into!the!western!Beaufort!

Sea!!(Wood!et!al.,!2015).!!Closer!to!shore,!Okkonen!et!al.!(in!press)!describe!how!upwelling!

events!can!combine!with!high!river!discharges!of!the!Sagavanirktok!and!Kuparuk!rivers,!

which!flow!into!the!coastal!lagoon!system!between!1500!W!and!1440!W,!leading!to!

aggregations!of!feeding!bowhead!whales!in!the!central!Alaskan!Beaufort!Sea.!!Atypical!

aggregations!of!hundreds!of!foraging!bowhead!whales!seen!during!aerial!surveys!in!

September!1997!and!2014!coincided!with!prey0accumulations!related!to!high!river!discharges!

coupled!to!prior!upwelling!events.!!These!results!were!generalized!to!a!simple!binary0based

mechanistic!model!that!links!the!relevant!physics!to!occurrences!of!potential!feeding!

opportunities!for bowhead!whales!along!the!entire!Beaufort!coast,!thereby!contributing!to!an!

improved!understanding!of!this!rapidly0changing!coastal!domain.!!!

The!annual!harvest!of!bowhead!whales!is!fundamental!to!the!wellbeing!of!Inuit!coastal!

communities!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!region,!including!eleven!villages!that!extend!from!Saint!

Lawrence!Island!in!the!northern!Bering!Sea!to!Barter!Island!in!the!northeastern!Beaufort!Sea!

(e.g.,!Braund!and!Moorehead,!1995;!Huntington!et!al.,!2016).!!The!impacts!of!offshore!

commercial!activities!(e.g.,!shipping,!oil!and!gas!development),!both!directly!on!bowhead!

whales!and!on!the!conduct!of!the!hunt,!has!been!the!focus!of!investigation!for!nearly!four!

decades,!with!much!of!the!work!supported!by!the!BOEM!Environmental!Studies!Program!in!

Alaska!(https://www.boem.gov/AKStudies/)!and!the!North!Slope!Borough!Department!of!

Wildlife!Management!(http://www.north0slope.org/departments/wildlife0

management/studies0and0research0projects),!among!others.!!Robards!et!al.!(in!press)!

describe!the!value!of!including!a!variety!of!perspectives!when!seeking!to!understand!and!

evaluate!the!consequences!of!these!impacts.!!Specifically,!the!emerging!field!of!“knowledge!co0

production”!identifies!ways!to!facilitate!the!inclusion!of!local!information!to!decision!making!

processes!(Wyborn,!2015).!!Robards!et!al.!(in!press)!review!outcomes!from!seven!Alaskan!

cases!studies!to!describe!a!typology!of!five!elements!important!for!the!co0production!of!locally!

relevant!actionable!knowledge.!!Three!elements!are!consistent!with!earlier!studies,!including:!

1)!developing!communities!of!practice,!2)!iterative!processes!for!defining!problems!and!

solutions,!and!3)!presence!of!boundary!organizations,!such!as!a!university,!government!

agency!or!co0management!council.!!The!authors!suggest!that,!for!Alaskan!Arctic!communities,!

it!is!also!critical!to!include!two!other!elements,!namely:!4)!the!consistent!provision!of!

sufficient!funds!and!labor!that!may!transcend!any!one!specific!project!goal,!and!5)!long!

temporal!scales!(sometimes!decades)!for!achieving!the!co0production!of!actionable!

knowledge.!!!

6.!!Summary!and!Conclusions!from!SOAR!Phase!2!

We!summarize!findings!from!the!papers!comprising!this!special!issue!using!ecological!

domains!adopted!in!the!AMP!model!as!a!framework!to!promote!an!ecosystem0focused!

synthesis!of!the!state!of!the!Pacific!Arctic.!!!Not!surprisingly,!most!of!the papers!in!this!volume!

42
relate!to!processes!occurring!in!the!spatially0broad!Seasonal!Ice!Zone!domain.!!The!modelled!

results!of!sea0ice!loss!at!the!fine0scale!of!daily!and!mooring0site!measurements!is!

unprecedented!and!reinforces!the!rapid!pace!of!change!in!this!fundamental!component!of!the!

Pacific!Arctic!marine!ecosystem!(Wang!et!al.,!in!press).!!The!prognosis!for!a!longer!open0water

season!makes!timely!the!ocean!reanalysis!provided!in!Bond!et!al.!(in!press),!which!suggests!

that!current!flow!in!the!‘new’!open0water!Chukchi!Sea!is!comprised!of!‘alternating!states’,!a!

finding!that!provides!a!foundation!for!interpretation!biophysical!patterns!observed!there.!!For!

example,!Cooper!and!Grebmeier!(in!press)!show!that!deposition!patterns!across!the!Chukchi!

Sea!can!be!broadly!categorized!based!on!the!relative!strength!of!bioturbation!versus!

sedimentation!processes,!both!of!which!are!strongly!influence!by!current!flow.!!Similarly,!

current!flow!patterns,!particularly!in!Barrow!Canyon,!can!notably!affect!the!amount!of!

corrosive!winter!water!transported!from!the!Chukchi!shelf!northward!into!Barrow!Canyon,!

along!the!Beaufort!shelf!break!and!ultimately!into!the!Arctic!Ocean!(Cross!et!al.,!in!press).!!

Patterns!of!‘in'situ’!primary!production!in!the!Chukchi!Sea!have!changed!considerably!in!

recent!decades,!the!mechanisms!for!which!are!undetermined,!but!could!include!shifts!in!

stratification!and!mixing!associated!with!shifting!patterns!of!current!flow!(Hill!et!al.,!in!press).!!

Taken!together,!these!papers!support!the!contention!that!the!Pacific!Arctic!marine!ecosystem!

has!entered!a!new!state.

Responses!to!rapidly!changing!sea0ice!and!ocean!conditions!in!the!Seasonal!Ice!Zone!are!

further!demonstrated!by!changes!in!the!seasonal!movements!and!acoustic!environment!of!

bowhead!whales!(Druckenmiller!et!al.,!in!press;!Stafford!et!al.,!in!press,!b),!and!in!the!

identification!of!two!dissimilar!autumn!migratory!patterns!across!the!Chukchi!Sea!(Citta!et!al.,!

in!press,!a).!!In!sum,!bowhead!whales!now!occupy!coastal!and!continental!shelf!habitats!in!the!

western!Beaufort!Sea!in!late!summer!and!autumn!more!often!than!they!did!thirty!years!ago,!

where!they!(and!beluga!whales)!are!subject!to!shifts!in!their!acoustic!environment!associated!

with!anthropogenic!noise!from!offshore!human!activities.!However,!the!greatest!shift!in!the!

underwater!acoustic!environment!comes!not!from!ships!and!seismic!surveys,!but!from!

increased!ambient!noise!associated!with!strong!winds!during!the!now0common!extended!

periods!of!open0water.!!Overall,!prey!availability!seems!the!primary!factor!in!driving!bowhead!

whale!distribution,!both!onto!shallow!shelf!habitats!as!sea!ice!retreats!further!from!shore!in!

the!Beaufort!Sea!(Druckenmiller!et!al.,!in!press),!and!to!central0Chukchi!shelf!habitat!when!

prey!is!available!there!during!the!autumn!migration!(Citta!et!al.,!in!press,!a).!!Indeed,!present!

circumstances!may!be!considered!‘boom!times’!for!bowhead!whales!in!the!Pacific!Arctic!

(Moore!2016),!although!a!‘tipping!point’!away!from!these!favorable!conditions!could!

accompany!future!ecosystem!alterations!such!as!those!associated!with!the!“atlantification”!of!

the!Arctic!(Polyakov!et!al.,!2017).!!

Barrow!Canyon!is!a!region!of!dynamic!ocean!conditions!and!a!key!‘gateway’!to!the!outer!shelf!

and!slope!Marginal!domain!of!the!Pacific!Arctic.!!Complementary!papers!focused!on!

epibenthic!communities!(Rand!et!al.,!in!press)!and!benthic!fishes!(Logerwell!et!al.,!in!press)!

provide!a!novel!synthesis!of!how!biophysical!variability!in!and!near!the!canyon!influences!

43
species!occurrence!and!habitat!use.!!While!contrasting!epibenthic!communities!were!

described!for!the!Beaufort!and!Chukchi!seas,!they!were!found!to!contain!functionally!similar!

groups!based!on!biological!traits.!Conversely,!Arctic!cod!was!the!single!most!abundant!benthic!

fish!species,!with!distribution!correlated with!deep,!cold,!saline!water!associated!with!lipid0

rich!copepods!in!the!canyon!and!adjacent!Beaufort!Sea!slope.!!!The!correlation!between!

beluga!seasonal!distribution!and!movements!with!Arctic!cod!occurrence!provides!an!upper0

trophic!link!and!highlights!the!importance!of!Barrow!Canyon!and!the!Beaufort!Sea!slope!as!

key!habitat!for!both!species!in!this!dynamic!section!of!the!marginal!domain.!!

The!Riverine!Coastal!domain!marks!the!juncture!between!marine!and!terrestrial!ecosystems!

and!therefore!a!zone!of!key!importance!to!coastal0dwelling!people!due!to!their!reliance!on!

resources!from!the!sea!for!food!and!cultural!wellbeing!(Huntington!et!al.,!2016).!!!Bowhead!

whales!are!of!central!importance!in!this!regard,!with!extant!village!locations!influenced!by!

their!seasonal!migratory!patterns.!!Okkonen!et!al.!(in!press)!provides!an!innovative!synthesis!

of!biophysical!data!leading!to!atypical!aggregations!of!bowheads!in!the!riverine!coastal!

domain!of!central!Alaskan!Beaufort!in!two!of!the!past!twenty!years.!!Understanding!causal

factors!for!shifting!patterns!of!whale!occurrence!is!of!great!interest,!both!to!local!people!and!

to!management!agencies!seeking!to!support!safe!and!effective!hunting!practices.!!!The!

formulation!of!effective!bowhead!whale!co0management!practices!is!perhaps!one!of!the!

clearest!success!stories!of!the!past!forty!years.!!Robards!et!al.!(in!press)!describe!how!the!

process!of!knowledge!co0production!has!led!to!this!positive!outcome,!and!identify!five!

elements!fundamental!to!the!development!locally!relevant!actionable!knowledge.!!It!is!further!

development!of!these!types!of!socio0ecological!tools!that!can!aid!communication!across!

cultures.

OVERALL!SOAR!CONTEXT!AND!CONCLUSION

The!SOAR!project!is!just!one!of!several!recent!attempts!to!combine!multidisciplinary!data!and!

observations!to!better!understand!the!state!and!trajectory!of!arctic!marine!ecosystems.!!In!

addition!to!the!first!SOAR!special!issue!(Moore!and!Stabeno,!2015),!other!special!issues!

focused!on!the!Pacific!Arctic!include!the!Arctic!Ecosystem!Integrated!Survey!(Mueter!et!al.,!

2017),!the!Hanna!Shoal!Ecosystem!Study!(Dunton!et!al.,!2017),!and!the!Chukchi!Sea!Offshore!

Monitoring!in!Drilling!Area!0!Chemical!and!Benthos!project!(Dunton!et!al.,!2014).!!Other!

notable!efforts!include!a!compendium!of!information!for!the!northeastern!Chukchi!Sea!

(Hopcroft!and!Day,!2013),!the!Pacific!Marine!Arctic!Regional!Synthesis!(Grebmeier!et!al.!

2015c;!http://pacmars.cbl.umces.edu/),!and!a!volume!of!papers!providing!a!pan0Arctic!

multidisciplinary!perspective!(Wassman,!2015).!!!While!these!examples!all!have!a!regional!

focus,!other!recent!reviews!of!climate!change!impacts!on!marine!ecosystems!have!adopted!

mechanistic!frameworks,!including!direct!physiological!and!climate0mediated!predator0prey!

44
responses!evidenced!by!upper!trophic!species!(e.g.!Sydeman!et!al.,!2015).!!!We!introduced!the

AMP!model!as!a!conceptual!framework!for!the!Pacific!Arctic!region!in!the!first!SOAR!special!

issue!(Moore!and!Stabeno!2015).!!Now,!in!the!preceding!discussion!of!Phase!2!of!the!SOAR!

project,!we!have!used!the!ecological!domain!framework!of!the!AMP!model!as!a!tool!for!a!

synthesis!of!information!regarding!the!current!state!and!possible!trajectory!of!the!Pacific!

Arctic!marine!ecosystem.!!In!so!doing,!we!bring!a!mechanistic!approach!to!a!regional!analysis.!!

In!2011,!we!did!not!set!out!to!develop!the!AMP!model;!rather,!it!was!the!fruition!of the!first!

phase!of!SOAR.!!The!more!fully!developed!AMP!model!and!the!extensive!new!syntheses!and

findings!overviewed!in!this!final!report!for!the!SOAR!project!have!moved!us!toward!reaching!

the!three!main!objectives!of!the!SOAR!project:!!We!have!increased!scientific!understanding!of!

the!relationships!among!oceanographic!conditions!and!marine!life!in!the!PAR;!we!have!

enhanced!the!scientific!community's!capability!to predict!future changes!in!oceanography and!

associated!changes!in!the!behavior!of!marine!mammals!and!their!prey!in!the!PAR;!and!we!

have!communicated!findings!of!synthesis!activities!to!resource!managers,!local!Arctic!

residents,!national!and!international!science!societies,!and!the!general!public.!

45
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biological!traits!and!environmental!variables!to!characterize!two!Arctic!epibenthic!

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Watson,!A.,!Williams,!M.!in!press.!Understanding!and!adapting!to!observed!changes!in!the

Alaskan!Arctic:!actionable!knowledge!co0production!with!Alaska!Native!Communities.!!!

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2013.!Variation!in!the!response!of!an!Arctic!top!predator!experiencing!habitat!loss:!!

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http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)–)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES

Science)Steering)

Committee

Affiliation Location

Robyn!Angliss! NOAA/NMML! Seattle,!WA

Carin!Ashjian! WHOI Woods!Hole,!MA

Christopher!Clark Cornell Ithaca,!NY

Jacqueline!Grebmeier! UMCES Solomons,!MD!

Craig!George NSB Barrow,!AK!

Taqulik!Hepa NSB Barrow,!AK!

Vera!Metcalf EWC/Kawerak Nome,!AK!

Chad!Jay USGS Anchorage,!AK!

Tim!Ragan! MMC Washington,!DC

Robert!Suydam NSB Barrow,!AK!

Tom!Weingartner! UAF/SFOS! Fairbanks,!AK!

Science)Contributors Affiliation Location

Kevin!Arrigo! Stanford Stanford,CA

Catherine!Berchok NOAA/NMML! Seattle,!WA

Susanna!Blackwell Greeneridge!Sciences,!INC Santa!Barbara,!CA

Bodil!Bluhm UAF/SFOS! Fairbanks,!AK!

Peter!Boveng NOAA/NMML! Seattle,!WA

Eugene!Brower Barrow!Whaling!Captains!Assn! Barrow,!AK!

John!Burns ADF&G!(ret.),!! Fairbanks,!AK!

Robert!Campbell! URI Newport,!RI

John!Citta ADFG! Fairbanks,!AK!

Lee!Cooper UM/Chesapeake!Bio.!Lab Solomons,!MD!

Robert!Day ABR,!Inc! Fairbanks,!AK!

George!Divoky Friends!of!Cooper!Island Seattle,!WA

Matthew!Druckenmiller UAF/CIRES! Fairbanks,!AK!

Ken!Dunton! U!of!Texas Austin,!TX!

Ed!Farley NOAA/AFSC! Juneau,!AK!

Megan!Ferguson NOAA/NMML! Seattle,!WA

Karen!Frey Clark!University Worcester,!MA

David!Hannay Jasco!Research Victoria,!BC,!CAN!

Lois!Harwood Fisheries!and!Oceans Yellowknive,!NT,!CAN!

Russ!Hopcroft UAF/SFOS! Fairbanks,!AK!

54
Josh!Jones Scripps San!Diego,!CA

Merlin!Koonooka Native!Village!of!Gambell! Gambell,!AK!

Kathy!Kuletz USFWS/MBM Anchorage,!AK!

Libby!Logerwell NOAA/AFSC! Seattle,!WA

Jim!Lovvorn! Southern!Illinois!U Carbondale

Wieslaw!Maslowski Naval!Postgraduate!School Monterey,!CA

Jeremy!Mathis! UAF/SFOS! Fairbanks,!AK!

Jeff!Napp NOAA/AFSC! Seattle,!WA

George!Noongwook Native!Village!of!Savoonga Savoonga,!AK!

Brenda!Norcross UAF/SFOS! Fairbanks,!AK!

Stephen!Okkonen UAF/SFOS! Fairbanks,!AK!

Jim!Overland! NOAA/PMEL! Seattle,!WA

Sandy!Parker0Stetter UW! Seattle,!WA

Robert!Pickart WHOI Woods!Hole,!MA

Lori!Quakenbush ADFG! Fairbanks,!AK!

Scott!Raborn LGL College!Station,!TX

Fenton!Rexford Native!Village!of!Kaktovik Kaktovik,!AK!

Kate!Stafford UW Seattle,!WA

John!Trefry FL!Institute!of!Technology Melbourne,!FL

Rebecca!Woodgate UW/APL! Seattle,!WA

BOEM)Participants Affiliation Location

Heather!Crowley BOEM Anchorage,!AK!

Warren!Horowitz

Charles!Monnett

BOEM

BOEM!(retired)

Anchorage,!AK!

Anchorage,!AK!

55
56
 

APPENDIX(B(–(LIST(OF(SOAR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONSScience(Contributors Affiliation Location SpecialtyKevin(Arrigo( Stanford Stanford,CA Nutrients!and!Primary!Prod!Catherine(Berchok NOAA/NMML! Seattle,!WA AcousticsSusanna(Blackwell( Greeneridge!Sciences,!INC Santa!Barbara,!CA Acoustics!Bodil(Bluhm UAF/SFOS! Fairbanks,!AK! BenthicPeter(Boveng NOAA/NMML! Seattle,!WA Mammals!Eugene(Brower( Barrow!Whaling!Captains!Assn.! Barrow,!AK! Local!and!Traditional!KnowledgeJohn(Burns ADFG!(ret.)! Fairbanks,!AK! Industry!Science!Lead/Mammals!Robert(Campbell URI Newport,!RI ZooplanktonJohn(Citta ADFG! Fairbanks,!AK! Mammals!Lee(Cooper UM/Chesapeake!Bio.!Lab Solomons,!MD! Chemistry!Robert(Day ABR,!Inc! Fairbanks,!AK! Industry!Science!Lead/SeabirdsGeorge(Divoky( Friends!of!Cooper!Island Seattle,!WA SeabirdsMatthew(Druckenmiller NSIDC Boulder,!CO Sea!IceKen(Dunton( U!of!Texas Austin,!TX! Hanna!Shoal!Lead/BenthicEd(Farley NOAA/AFSC! Juneau,!AK! FishMegan(Ferguson( NOAA/NMML! Seattle,!WA Mammals!Karen(Frey Clark!University Worcester,!MA Nutrients!and!Primary!Prod!David(Hannay Jasco!Research Victoria,!BC,!Canada Acoustics!Lois(Harwood( Fisheries!and!Oceans Yellowknive,!NT,!Canada Mammals!Russ(Hopcroft( UAF/SFOS! Fairbanks,!AK! ZooplanktonJosh(Jones( Scripps San!Diego,!CA Acoustics!Merlin(Koonooka Native!Village!of!Gambell! Gambell,!AK! Local!and!Tradtional!KnowledgeKathy(Kuletz USFWS/MBM Anchorage,!AK! SeabirdsLibby(Logerwell( NOAA/AFSC! Seattle,!WA FishJim(Lovvorn Southern!Illinois!U Carbondale Sea!DucksWieslaw(Maslowski( Naval!Postgraduate!School Monterey,!CA PhysicsJeremy(Mathis UAF/SFOS! Fairbanks,!AK! Chemistry!Jeff(Napp NOAA/AFSC! Seattle,!WA ZooplanktonGeorge(Noongwook( Native!Village!of!Savoonga Savoonga,!AK! Local!and!Tradtional!Knowledge
Brenda(Norcross( UAF/SFOS! Fairbanks,!AK! Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak( Kuukpik!Corp. Nuiqsut,!AK! Local!and!Tradtional!KnowledgeStephen(Okkonen UAF/SFOS! Fairbanks,!AK! PhysicsJim(Overland NOAA/PMEL! Seattle,!WA Sea!Ice/MeterologySandy(ParkerPStetter UW! Seattle,!WA FishRobert(Pickart WHOI Woods!Hole,!MA PhysicsLori(Quakenbush( ADFG! Fairbanks,!AK! Mammals!Fenton(Rexford Native!Village!of!Kaktovik Kaktovik,!AK! Local!and!Tradtional!KnowledgeScott(Raborn LGL Pineville,!LA FishKate(Stafford UW! Seattle,!WA Acoustics!John(Trefry FL!Institute!of!Technology Melbourne,!FL Chemistry!Rebecca(Woodgate( UW/APL! Seattle,!WA Physics

57
APPENDIX(C(–(LIST(OF(SOAR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESENTATIONS(AT(SCIENTIFIC(MEETINGS,(WORKSHOPS,(

AND(WEBINARSDate Presenter Title Where

16PJanP2012 Sheffield!Guy Poster:!Synthesis!of!Arctic!Research!Y!Physics!to!Whales!in!the!Pacific!Arctic Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!

Anchorage,!AK

17PJanP2012 Moore Marine!mammals!and!sea!ice!loss!in!the!Pacific!Arctic:!!tracking!ecosystem!

responses!to!the!‘New!Normal’!during!a!period!of!rapid!change

Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!Anchorage,!AK

17PJanP2012 Stabeno Chukchi!Acoustics,!Oceanography,!and!Zooplankton!(CHAOZ):!Observations!

on!Chukchi!Sea

Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!Anchorage,!AK

10PAprP2012 Stabeno Observations!in!the!Chukchi!Sea NOAA/PMEL!Seattle,!WA

15PAugP2012 Moore Marine!Mammals!in!the! New!Normal !Pacific!Arctic USCG!Healy

21PSepP2012 Moore An!overview!of!the!SOAR!project PacMARS!meeing,!Annapolis,!MD

13PNovP2012 Moore SOAR!program!overview Northern!Oil!and!Gas!Research!

Forum,!Anchorage,!AK

10PDecP2012 Moore An!overview!of!the!SOAR!Project PacMARS!data!meeting,!Boulder,!CO

20PJanP2013 Moore An!overview!of!the!SOAR!Project Joint!SOARYPacMARS!meeting,!

Anchorage,!AK

20PJanP2013 Clark Overview!of!SOAR!acoustics!project Joint!SOARYPacMARS!meeting,!

Anchorage,!AK

20PJanP2013 Ferguson Overview!of!Kuletz/Ferguson!SOAR!project Joint!SOARYPacMARS!meeting,

Anchorage,!AK

20PJanP2013 Grebmeier Overview!of!SOAR!Barrow!Canyon!project Joint!SOARYPacMARS!meeting,!

Anchorage,!AK

21PJanP2013 Sheffield!Guy Poster:!Synthesis!of!Arctic!Research!Y!Physics!to!Whales!in!the!Pacific!Arctic Alaska!Marine!Science Symposium,!

Anchorage,!AK

20PFebP2013 Moore SOAR!program!update Science!Technical!Advisory!Panel,!

Fairbanks,!AK

25PFebP2013 Moore NOAA s!Arctic!Vision!and!Strategy:!Update!on!Goals!2!&!5 NOAA/PMEL!Seattle,!WA

12PMarP2013 Mathis Ocean!Acidification!Risk!Assessment!(won!NOAA!Science!paper!award) Gordon!Research!Conference,!

Ventura,!CA

12PMarP2013 Moore Marine!mammals!and!sea!ice!loss!in!the!Pacific!Arctic:!!tracking!ecosystem!

responses!to!the!‘New!Normal’!

Gordon!Research!Conference,!Ventura,!CA

26PMarP2013 Moore SOAR!Program!Overview Keynote!presentation!at!Wakefield!

58
59

Symposium,!Anchorage,!AK

27PMarP2013 Divoky Shifting!prey!in!a!melting!ocean:!Seabirds!reveal!annual!and!seasonal!changes! Wakefield!Symposium,!Anchorage,!

in!Arctic!nearshore!fish!populations AK

27PMarP2013 Arrigo Presentation!including!SOAR!results Wakefield!Symposium,!Anchorage,!

AK

7PJunP2013 Sullivan SOAR!included!in!presentation!titled:!NOAA!in!the!Arctic!2013:!External! Washington!DC

Engagement

19PJunP2013 Moore NOAA s!role in!the!DBO!and!SOAR NOAA!Arctic!Days,!Washington!DC!

via!WebEx

20PJanP2014 Guy Poster:!Synthesis!of!Arctic!Research!Y!Physics!to!Whales!in!the!Pacific!Arctic Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!

Anchorage,!AK

20PJanP2014 Citta Poster:!Ecological!characteristics!of!core!areas!used!by western!Arctic! Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!

bowhead!whales,!2006Y2012.! Anchorage,!AK

21PJanP2014 George Western!Arctic!bowhead!whale!body!condition and!links!to!summer!sea!ice Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,

and!upwelling!in!the!Beaufort!Sea.! Anchorage,!AK

21PJanP2014 Kuletz Seasonal!and!spatial!patterns!in marine!bird!and!mammal!abundance Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!

distribution!in!the!Pacific!Arctic:!A!comparison!of biologically!impor Anchorage,!AKpelagic!areas.

!and!

tant!

22PJanP2014 Mathis Ocean!Acidification:!Perceptions,!Risks,!and!Uncertainties. Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!

Anchorage,!AK

14PFebP2014 Moore Marine!mammals!and!oceanography!in!the! New! Pacific!Arctic!region 2014!annual!meeting!of!the!

American!Association!for!the!Advancement!of!Science,!Chicago,!IL

Normal

22POctP2014 Moore SOAR!progress!and!overview NOAA s!Arctic!Ecosystem!Science!

Management!Working!Group!(ESMWG)!meeting,!Anchorage,!AK!

30POctP2014 Moore SOAR!progress!and!overview Distributed!Biological!Observatory

and!Pacific!Arctic!Group,!Seattle,!WA.

18PNovP2014 Moore A!Tale!of!Two!Synthesis! !PACMARS!and!SOAR!programs.!!The! webinar!for!the!Alaska!Center!for!

webinar!is!available!online //accap.uaf.edu/?q=PacMARS_SOAR Climate!Assessment!&!Policy!

(ACCAP)!

Efforts:!The

:!!https:

1PDecP2014 Divoky The!Effects!of!Decreasing Sea!Ice!and!Increasing!Sea!Surface!Temperature!on! Arctic!Change,!Ottawa,!CAN

an!Arctic!Seabird! t!on!Arctic!Cod Dependen

1PDecP2014 Harwood ‘Winners!and!losers’!in!a!changing!Beaufort!Sea!Ecosystem:!diverging!trends! Arctic!Change,!Ottawa,!CAN

in!the!body! !of!five!marine!vertebrate!species condition

17PDecP2014 Grebmeier PacMARS/SOAR!briefing! American!Geophysical!Union!

meeting

12PAugP2015 Stabeno The Arctic:!The!Present!and!Future. NOAA!Senior!Research!Council!

meeting,!Seattle,!WA

!US!
13PDecP2015 Moore Marine!Mammals!as!Sentinels!to!Impacts!of!Climate!Change!on!Arctic!Marine!

Ecosystems.!

AGU/SMM!Polar!Mixer!at!the!Exploratorium,!San!Francisco,!CA

16PDecP2015 Moore Marine!Mammals!as!Sentinels!to!Impacts!of!Climate!Change!on!Arctic!Marine!

Ecosystems.!

21st Biennial!Conference!on!Marine!Mammals,!San!Francisco,!CA.

21PDecP2015 Citta InterYannual!variability!in!the!fall!movements!of!bowhead!whales!in!the!

Chukchi!Sea.!!Poster.

Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!Anchorage,!AK

21PDecP2015 Sheffield!Guy Synthesis!of!Arctic!Research:!Physics!to!Marine!Mammals!in!the!Pacific!Arctic.!!

Poster.

Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!Anchorage,!AK

22PDecP2015 Clark A!year!in!the!acoustic!world!of!bowhead!whales!in!the!northern!Bering,!

Chukchi!and!Beaufort!Seas.!

Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!Anchorage,!AK

22PDecP2015 Moore The!Synthesis!of!Arctic!Research!(SOAR)!Program:!Status!&!Plans.! Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!

Anchorage,!AK

22PDecP2015 Lovvorn Limits!to!viability!of!a!critical!Arctic!migration!corridor!due!to!localized!prey,!

changing!sea!ice,!and!impending!industrial!development.!

Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!Anchorage,!AK

25PJanP2016 Sheffield!Guy Synthesis!of!Arctic!Research:!Physics!to!Marine!Mammals!in!the!Pacific!Arctic.!!

Poster.

Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!Anchorage,!AK

25PJanP2016 Divoky Four!Decades!of!Change:!An!Arctic!Seabird!Responds!to!a!Warming!Arctic Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!

Anchorage,!AK

26PJanP2016 Mathis Ocean!Acidification!in!the!PacificYArctic!Boundary!Regions Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!

Anchorage,!AK

26PJanP2016 Citta Oceanographic!Characteristics!Associated!with!Bowhead!Behaviors!in!the!

Chukchi!Sea

Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!Anchorage,!AK

26PJanP2016 Moore The!Arctic!Marine!Pulses!Model:!!Linking!Contiguous!Domains!in!the!Pacific!

Arctic!Region

Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!Anchorage,!AK

31PMarP2016 Mathis Using!an!Environmental!Intelligence!Framework!to!Evaluate!the!Impacts!of!

Ocean!Acidification!in!the!Arctic

ARCUS!D.C.!Seminar!Series

26(Jan(2017 Moore The Arctic Marine Pulses Model: linking annual oceanographic processes to

contiguous ecological domains in the Pacific Arctic

Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!Anchorage,!AK!

24(Jan(2017 Van!Pelt Synthesis of Arctic Research (SOAR) – Physics to marine mammals in the Pacific

Arctic, Phase II

Alaska!Marine!Science!Symposium,!Anchorage,!AK

22(Apr(2017 Moore The Synthesis of Arctic Research (SOAR) Program in the Pacific Arctic Sector International Conference on Arctic

Science, Reston, VA

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