# CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

......................................................................................................... 14-1

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS

............................................................................................................ 14-1

14.3 METHOD

...................................................................................................................... 14-2

14.4 RESULTS

...................................................................................................................... 14-3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.4.1 AEO2009 Reference Case Forecast

................................................................... 14-4

Table 14.4.2 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

.......................... 14-5

Table 14.4.3 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

.......................... 14-6

Table 14.4.4 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

.......................... 14-7

Table 14.4.5 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

.......................... 14-8

Table 14.4.6 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

.......................... 14-9

14-i

# CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

DOE analyzed the effects of residential cooking products and microwave ovens and commercial clothes washer standard levels on the electric and gas utility industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). a 

# NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectoral, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce a baseline energy forecast for the U.S., the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) . The AEO for 2009, April Release (AEO2009) forecasts energy supply and demand through 2030. 1 

# DOE used a variant of this model, referred to here as NEMS-BT, b 

# to account for the impacts of equipment efficiency standards on the baseline energy forecast. DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of a comparison between model results for the

AEO2009 Reference Case and for policy cases in which standards are in place, and applies the same basic set of assumptions as the AEO2009 . For example, the operating characteristics (e.g., energy conversion efficiency, emissions rates) of future electricity generating plants are as specified in the AEO2009 Reference Case, as are the prospects for natural gas supply.

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by fuel type, that result for each trial standard level (TSL), as well as changes in commercial sector electricity and natural gas consumption.

The technical support document (TSD) for DOE’s notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) covered conventional cooking products (i.e., cooktops and ovens), microwave oven energy factor (EF), microwave oven standby power consumption, and commercial clothes washers (CCW). 2 

# DOE has already completed its standards rulemaking for conventional cooking products and microwave oven EF and has published both a final rule 3 

# and corresponding

TSD. 4 

# This chapter presents information and results pertaining solely to CCWs. The impact of more-efficient equipment on microwave oven standby power will be addressed in a subsequent

TSD.

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in the analysis of energy efficiency standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well

a 

# For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. De partment of Energy, Energy Information Administration documentation. A useful summary is National Energ y Modeling System: An Overview 2003 , DOE/EIA0581(2003), March, 2003.

b 

# DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe on ly an official version of the model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMSBT (BT is DOE = s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegi s this work has been performed). NEMS-BT was previously called NEMS-BRS.

# known and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of the effects of energy-efficiency standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of efficiency standards than considering only average effects.

The utility impact analysis uses the assumptions of the AEO2009 and treats cooking product, microwave oven, and clothes washer efficiency standards as variations in policy. The effect of the policy is calculated as the difference between the AEO2009 Reference Case and each proposed standard case. Because the implementation of standards reduces total natural gas demand by less than one percent in any given year, its effect cannot be detected directly in the simulations. Therefore, DOE modeled larger reductions in demand and interpolated results for the TSLs. DOE assumed the effects to be linear within the range of interpolation. This method is discussed in more detail below and in Appendix 14A.

DOE was unable to consider High and Low Economic Growth Cases for AEO2009 as EIA did not generate these economic growth cases for the AEO2009 , April Release. For past AEO releases, the High Economic Growth Case assumes higher projected growth rates for population, labor force, and labor productivity, resulting in lower predicted inflation and interest rates, and higher aggregate economic growth, relative to the reference case. The opposite is true

for the Low Economic Growth Case.

14.3 METHOD

DOE used the national energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (Chapter 11) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger than the highest efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated resultscorresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher use reduction levels in NEMSBT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard. A detailed description of the interpolation method is given in Appendix 14A.

Policy runs are executed by reducing electricity and natural gas consumption in the NEMS-BT Residential and Commercial Demand Modules. Energy use reductions are applied to the residential cooking end use for cooking products and microwave ovens and commercial water heating end use for clothes washers. The savings are then divided among U.S. Census divisions. All fuels are considered simultaneously, however the residential and commercial TSLs are run separately using NEMS-BT.

Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the residential cooking products and microwave ovens and commercial clothes washers energy-efficiency

14-2

# standards analysis extend to the year 2043. It is not feasible to extend the forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by extrapolations of those outputs could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simple replications of year 2030 results. While these may seem unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain introduction are included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results.

14.4 RESULTS

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity, and residential-sector consumption. Results are for all TSLs presented in five-year increments to year 2030, including High and Low Growth cases for just the proposed TSL. Beyond year 2030, an extrapolation to 2043 for each proposed TSL represents a simple replication of the year 2030

results.

The results from the AEO2009 Reference Case are shown in Table 14.4.1.

DOE analyzed a total of five TSLs for commercial clothes washers. The reference case results for each TSL are presented in Tables 14.4.2 through 14.4.18, respectively. The results from proposed standards for commercial clothes washers are presented in Tables 14.2.2 through

14.2.6. Each table shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 14.3 for total U.S. electricity generation and installed capacity.

Commercial clothes washers save natural gas for all five TSLs compared to the AEO2009 Reference Case. The natural savings predicted by the National Impacts Analysis (NIA) Model range from 0.0 to 0.2 percent of total commercial natural gas consumption by year 2030. The savings from electricity are less than 0.0 percent of total commercial electricity consumption for

all five TSLs.

14-3

# Table 14.4.1 AEO2009 Reference Case Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: AEO2009 Reference Case

2005 2010

Residential Sector Ener gy

Consum p tion 1



# Electricit y

Sales (TWh) 2 

# 1359.0 1403.0

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34

Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06

Other (Quads) 3 

# 1.88 1.77 2015

1407.0

5.21

1.74

4.94

1.65 2020

1477.0

5.26

1.72

4.99

1.63 2025

1571.0

5.32

1.70

5.04

1.61 2030

1661.0

5.28

1.69

5.00

1.60

Commercial Sector Ener gy

Consum p tion 1



# Electricit y

Sales (TWh) 2 

# 1275.0 1402.0

Natural Gas (EJ) 3.26 3.45

Other (EJ) 0.99 0.85

Natural Gas (Quads) 3.09 3.27

Other (Quads) 3 

# 0.94 0.81 1507.0

3.47

0.82

3.29

0.78 1620.0

3.50

0.80

3.32

0.76 1742.0

3.63

0.81

3.44

0.77 1863.0

3.71

0.81

3.52

0.77

Total U.S. Electric Generation 4



# Coal (TWh) 2014.0 2022.0

Gas (TWh) 753.0 775.0

Petroleum (TWh) 123.0 56.0

Nuclear (TWh) 782.0 809.0

Renewables (TWh) 357.0 468.0

Total (TWh) 5 

# 4029.00 4130.00 2138.0

647.0

47.0

831.0

645.0

4308.00 2198.0

714.0

49.0

876.0

707.0

4544.00 2203.0

908.0

49.0

881.0

771.0

4812.00 2305.0

979.0

50.0

890.0

797.0

5021.00

I nstalled Generating Capacity 6



# Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0

Other Fossil (GW) 7 

# 438.9 470.5

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5

Total (GW) 8 

# 952.3 1030.2 331.0

443.2

104.1

171.1

1049.4 333.3

451.8

110.3

176.1

1071.5 333.9

499.4

110.3

182.3

1125.9 344.6

542.4

110.0

188.3

1185.3

1 

## Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2009: Energy Consumption, Residential

2 

## Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Electricity Sales by Sector

3 

## Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy

4 

## Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

5 

## Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

6 

## Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2009: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

7 

## Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

8 

## Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells



# 14-4Table 14.4.2 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 1 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 LBNL Stimulus Reference CaseExtrapolation2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043Commercial Sector Energy ConsumptionCommercial Sector EnergyConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,199 1,275 1,402 1,507 1,620 1,742 1,863Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Natural Gas (EJ)3.47 3.26 3.45 3.47 3.50 3.63 3.71Natural Gas (EJ)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other (EJ)1.03 0.99 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.81 0.81Other (EJ)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Natural Gas (Quads)3.29 3.09 3.27 3.29 3.32 3.44 3.52Natural Gas (Quads)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other (Quads)0.98 0.94 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.77Other (Quads)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)1,975 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305Coal (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Gas (TWh)646 753 775 647 714 908 979Gas (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Petroleum (TWh)119 123 56 47 49 49 50Petroleum (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)764 782 809 831 876 881 890Nuclear (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)364 357 468 645 707 771 797Renewables (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)3,868 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021Total (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.9 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6Coal (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)414.3 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.6 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)96.2 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3Renewables (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)925.0 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014-5Table 14.4.3 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 2 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 LBNL Stimulus Reference CaseExtrapolation2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043Commercial Sector Energy ConsumptionCommercial Sector EnergyConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,199 1,275 1,402 1,507 1,620 1,742 1,863Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Natural Gas (EJ)3.47 3.26 3.45 3.47 3.50 3.63 3.71Natural Gas (EJ)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other (EJ)1.03 0.99 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.81 0.81Other (EJ)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Natural Gas (Quads)3.29 3.09 3.27 3.29 3.32 3.44 3.52Natural Gas (Quads)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other (Quads)0.98 0.94 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.77Other (Quads)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)1,975 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305Coal (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Gas (TWh)646 753 775 647 714 908 979Gas (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Petroleum (TWh)119 123 56 47 49 49 50Petroleum (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)764 782 809 831 876 881 890Nuclear (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)364 357 468 645 707 771 797Renewables (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)3,868 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021Total (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.9 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6Coal (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)414.3 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.6 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)96.2 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3Renewables (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)925.0 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014-6Table 14.4.4 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 3 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 LBNL Stimulus Reference CaseExtrapolation2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043Commercial Sector Energy ConsumptionCommercial Sector EnergyConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,199 1,275 1,402 1,507 1,620 1,742 1,863Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Natural Gas (EJ)3.47 3.26 3.45 3.47 3.50 3.63 3.71Natural Gas (EJ)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other (EJ)1.03 0.99 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.81 0.81Other (EJ)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Natural Gas (Quads)3.29 3.09 3.27 3.29 3.32 3.44 3.52Natural Gas (Quads)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other (Quads)0.98 0.94 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.77Other (Quads)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)1,975 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305Coal (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Gas (TWh)646 753 775 647 714 908 979Gas (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Petroleum (TWh)119 123 56 47 49 49 50Petroleum (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)764 782 809 831 876 881 890Nuclear (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)364 357 468 645 707 771 797Renewables (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)3,868 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021Total (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.9 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6Coal (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)414.3 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.6 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)96.2 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3Renewables (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)925.0 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014-7Table 14.4.5 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 4 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 LBNL Stimulus Reference CaseExtrapolation2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043Commercial Sector Energy ConsumptionCommercial Sector EnergyConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,199 1,275 1,402 1,507 1,620 1,742 1,863Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Natural Gas (EJ)3.47 3.26 3.45 3.47 3.50 3.63 3.71Natural Gas (EJ)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other (EJ)1.03 0.99 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.81 0.81Other (EJ)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Natural Gas (Quads)3.29 3.09 3.27 3.29 3.32 3.44 3.52Natural Gas (Quads)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other (Quads)0.98 0.94 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.77Other (Quads)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)1,975 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305Coal (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Gas (TWh)646 753 775 647 714 908 979Gas (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Petroleum (TWh)119 123 56 47 49 49 50Petroleum (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)764 782 809 831 876 881 890Nuclear (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)364 357 468 645 707 771 797Renewables (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)3,868 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021Total (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.9 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6Coal (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)414.3 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.6 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)96.2 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3Renewables (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)925.0 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014-8Table 14.4.6 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 5 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 LBNL Stimulus Reference CaseExtrapolation2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043Commercial Sector Energy ConsumptionCommercial Sector EnergyConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,199 1,275 1,402 1,507 1,620 1,742 1,863Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Natural Gas (EJ)3.47 3.26 3.45 3.47 3.50 3.63 3.71Natural Gas (EJ)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other (EJ)1.03 0.99 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.81 0.81Other (EJ)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Natural Gas (Quads)3.29 3.09 3.27 3.29 3.32 3.44 3.52Natural Gas (Quads)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other (Quads)0.98 0.94 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.77Other (Quads)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)1,975 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305Coal (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Gas (TWh)646 753 775 647 714 908 979Gas (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Petroleum (TWh)119 123 56 47 49 49 50Petroleum (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)764 782 809 831 876 881 890Nuclear (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)364 357 468 645 707 771 797Renewables (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)3,868 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021Total (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.9 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6Coal (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)414.3 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.6 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)96.2 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3Renewables (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)925.0 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014-9

# REFERENCES

1 

# U.S. Department of Energy-Energy Information Administration. An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook , April, 2009. Washington,

DC. SR/OIAF/2009-03.

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/stimulus/pdf/sroiaf(2009)03.pdf >

2 

# U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Residential Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Cooking Products, and

Commercial Clothes Washers , September, 2008. Washington, DC.

< http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/home_appl_tsd.html >

3 

# U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Energy Conservation Standards for Certain Consumer Products (Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Microwave Ovens, and Electric and Gas Kitchen Ranges and Ovens) and for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment (Commercial Clothes Washers); Final Rule. Federal Register , 2009. 74(66): pp. 16040-16096.

4 

# U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Technical Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer Products and Commercial and Industrial Equipment: Residential Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Cooking Products, and

Commercial Clothes Washers , March, 2009. Washington, DC.

< http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/cooking_products_final_rul e_tsd.html >

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