CHAPTER TITLE i
ii BEYOND TRAFFIC
DEDICATION

Thank you for participating in 

our stakeholder outreach events. 

We appreciate all you do for us. 

#BeyondTraffic.
II BEYOND TRAFFIC

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Letter to the Reader III

Introduction 1

Trends 7

How We Move 

How We Move Things

How We Adapt

How We Move Better 

How We Grow Economic Opportunity for All

How We Align Decisions and Dollars

System Implications 131

Why Do People Travel 

Highways and Motor Vehicles

Transit

Pedestrians and Cyclists

Aviation

Intercity Rail

Marine

Pipelines

Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times 182

Megaregions Forum Report 206
III

LETTER TO THE 

READER

We, as users of the transportation system, think 

little of the untold intricacies that converge so we 

can get to work, take children to their activities, 

or enjoy a cross country trip. There is hardware—

the roads, runways, and railways. There is also 

software—the vehicles in which we move. There 

are the vehicle operators and fellow travelers 

with whom we share the highway, the sky, or the 

railroad tracks. There are the maps we use to 

chart our course. If any one of these elements 

fail, we may reach our destination but only after 

many hours have been lost. Increasingly, our 

ability to maximize our time correlates directly to 

transportation.

Transportation matters more than just as a way 

to get us places. Transportation, for good or ill, 

shapes places. Many road networks have been 

built upon foot-worn paths of our forbearers. 

Along these paths grew towns, and some of 

those towns grew into cities. As new forms 

of transportation grew—from the horse and 

buggy, to the bicycle, to the locomotive, to the 

automobile—it became necessary to smooth 

those paths and, more recently, pave them or lay 

rails upon them.

Places where we live and work also shape the 

transportation system. Clogged highways are not 

the product of poor design per se. Sometimes 

they choke with unanticipated traffic flows 

brought about by unforeseen zoning and land 

use decisions, regional population growth, or 

deferred maintenance caused by inadequate 

budgets or perhaps misplaced priorities. 

Congestion is not limited to roads. A Midwestern 

farmer may have harvested several tons of 

grain to ship by rail only to find limited space on 

freight trains due to growing competition from 

commodities such as energy products. Even our 

commercial airspace is experiencing congestion 

around major hub airports. As we grow, and as 

our economy grows, the challenge of moving 

will become even more complicated. If we could 

anticipate today what will likely slow or stop our 

national progress, we could plan an effective 

response, engage in robust debate, and settle on 

a course of action. Unfortunately, we have too 

often misstated the problem as simply one of 

funding when it may be one of both resources 

and design.
IV BEYOND TRAFFIC

In the enabling legislation that gave rise to 

the U.S. Department of Transportation, the 

Secretary of Transportation is vested with the 

responsibility to report on current and future 

conditions of our transportation system. This 

report is the U.S. Department of Transportation’s 

most comprehensive assessment of national 

conditions in decades and is, in effect, a call to 

action. After years of chronic underinvestment 

and policy choices that sometimes work at 

cross-purposes with larger economic and social 

mobility goals, now is the time for a report like 

this to be read, understood, considered, and 

utilized to breathe new life into funding and 

policy discussions at the federal, state, and local 

levels. 

Can we imagine a future in which traffic jams 

decline? Absolutely. Essentially, three strategies 

need to be employed—all of which demand 

increased funding and new, more adaptive 

policymaking at all levels of government. First, 

we clearly have to take better care of our legacy 

transportation systems. We cannot cross bridges 

that have fallen apart or connect commerce to 

ports in disrepair. Most obviously, the question 

of sufficient resources must be confronted 

squarely. Second, we must fund and prioritize 

new projects based on future projections, not 

arcane precepts of mobility. Living patterns 

are changing, as are transportation tastes. As 

is the nature of freight movement. Rather than 

plunge our heads in the sand, policymakers and 

practitioners should understand these trends 

and plan with them in mind. Third, we must use 

technologies and better design approaches that 

will allow us to maximize the use of our old and 

new transportation assets. Doing so may involve 

adapting for innovations in vehicle safety and 

automation, improving federal, state, and local 

coordination, and adopting best practices in the 

design of infrastructure.

These strategies are at variance with our current 

posture. The U.S. transportation system is still 

proceeding under a 20th century model in 

which our policies, practices, and programs are 

presumed to be sufficient, as are the resources 

devoted to them.

Over the past six years, the United States 

government has passed 32 short-term measures 

to keep its surface transportation system afloat. 

Funding uncertainty has undermined our ability 

to modernize our air traffic control system. 

Diffuse decision-making mechanisms at the 

state and local level have hampered our ability 

to address critical freight and trade corridors. 

And our programs and policies have not been 

reformed to tackle the challenges of tomorrow. 

The combination of these forces—inconsistent, 

unreliable funding, and static policies in an era 

of rapid change—has left our transportation 

infrastructure in an increasingly deteriorated 

and fragile state. It has left the United States on 

the precipice of losing its historical advantage in 

moving people and things faster, more safely, 

and more reliably than any other nation in the 

world.

Thankfully, on December 4, 2015, President 

Obama signed the first long-term surface 

transportation bill in a decade: the FAST Act. 

This Act required bipartisan cooperation on its 

contents and its “pay for.” The proposal made 

some achievements, but nothing on the order of 

what’s needed in light of the following pages. In 

terms of its “pay for,” the FAST Act largely used 

gimmicky offsets rather than dealing with the 

fundamental structural flaws inherent in the 

gas tax. Consequently, our system still lacks the 

galvanizing clarity of purpose and vision that 

can drive public support. If a robust and clear 

new vision for U.S. infrastructure can ever be 

developed in our time, the seed is planted in this 

report.
BEYOND TRAFFIC V

It is important to note that Beyond Traffic is 

not an action plan and is not intended to be. It 

is a survey of where we are and where current 

trends may take us if left unaddressed. The 

federal government alone cannot achieve 

resolution of all of the issues and concerns 

the future will bring; much decision making 

belongs to other stakeholders, including state 

and local governments and the private sector. 

Any comprehensive action plan would require 

consultation and coordinated execution by all of 

these participants.

Beyond Traffic is intended to start a longoverdue national conversation about what our 

country really needs and why we need it. To 

that end, a draft of the report was published in 

February 2015. In the subsequent 18 months 

it was downloaded more than 400,000 times. 

We asked you to provide us comments and you 

did. We received hundreds of comments via 

email and thousands more in the webinars and 

workshops we held to share our findings. We 

received comments from engineers, researchers, 

transportation planners, pilots, truck drivers, 

transit operators, safety advocates, and disability 

rights advocates, among others.

This final version reflects the prevailing themes of 

the comments we received, as well as the specific 

corrections some of you provided. In response 

to your concerns, we have added a new chapter 

to Beyond Traffic: How We Grow Opportunity for 

All. 

This survey is not the first effort to capture 

current and future trends in transportation. 

Secretaries William Coleman, Sam Skinner, 

and Rodney Slater each published major 

reports in the past to contribute to the national 

dialogue. Each of these efforts has involved 

dedicated teams within the U.S. Department 

of Transportation, and Beyond Traffic is no 

exception. Under Secretary of Policy Blair 

Anderson, Assistant Secretary Carlos Monje 

and our team in the Office of Policy, as well as 

the Volpe Center led by Anne Aylward, have 

built upon the work of their predecessors and 

these teams have remained deeply vested in 

overseeing the development of this product.

In perhaps the most definitive of these surveys, 

Secretary Coleman, in the 1977 study entitled 

“National Transportation: Trends and Choices 

(to the year 2000)” captured the sentiments that 

have guided our efforts in this work:

“National Transportation: Trends and 

Choices provides a starting point for 

that much needed public debate. It is 

an agenda of national transportation 

issues and alternative solutions that, from 

the perspective of the Department of 

Transportation, appear to have merit. It is 

not intended as a plan of action, although 

it encompasses programs and plans that 

already may have the force of law at 

various levels of Government. It is intended 

to be a prospectus of what is possible, 

practicable, and in the public service.”

I therefore ask that you, the reader, accept this 

document in the spirit in which it was prepared: 

as a basis upon which we can all build together. 

Anthony Foxx

U.S. Secretary of Transportation  
1 BEYOND TRAFFIC

INTRODUCTION

Introduction: Summary in Brief

When the United States Department of 

Transportation was created, the Secretary of 

Transportation was charged by law to report 

on both the current and the anticipated future 

conditions of our nation’s transportation 

system. Beyond Traffic 2045 is U.S. DOT’s most 

comprehensive assessment of current and future 

conditions in decades—it is a call to action. After 

years of chronic underinvestment and policy 

choices that, in some cases, have actually worked 

at cross purposes with the broader economic 

and social goals held by most Americans, now 

is the time for a report like this one to be read, 

understood, considered—and used, to breathe 

new life into funding and policy discussions at all 

levels.

Importantly, Beyond Traffic doesn’t prescribe a 

course of action. It doesn’t advocate for specific 

or partisan solutions. And because we know 

that we can’t predict the future with complete 

accuracy, Beyond Traffic doesn’t contain the 

blueprints for solving all of the transportation 

challenges our nation faces. Instead, Beyond 

Traffic presents and analyzes the long-term 

and emerging trends that will shape our 

transportation system. By doing this, it provides 

a framework for the factual, rooted-in-reality 

discussions we will need to have about coming 

to grips with what our needs really are, and what 

our priorities will have to be.

Now is an exciting time to have this discussion. 

Our transportation system is on the cusp of a 

major transformation, akin to the introduction 

of the steam engine or the automobile. New 

technologies and business models—automated 

vehicles, electric cars, unmanned aerial systems, 

NextGen air-traffic operations, and mobility 

on demand, to name just a few—promise to 

dramatically improve the safety, efficiency, 

competitiveness, accessibility, and sustainability 

of our transportation system. To realize this 

transformation, we will need a corresponding 

transformation in our transportation policy. 

3⁄4 To promote the adoption of new 

technologies, we must create a governance 

system that enables and incentivizes 

innovation rather than stifles it: reducing 

regulatory barriers, promoting technology 

transfer and capacity building, and 

spurring basic research across all modes of 

transportation—even as safety remains our 

top priority.

3⁄4 To encourage economic development, we 

will need to articulate policies that promote 

employment, economic growth, access 

and opportunity for all Americans, and our 

competitiveness on a global scale.
INTRODUCTION 2

3⁄4 To ensure a return on our transportation 

investments, we will need to evaluate them 

against what our needs truly are, and to 

choose projects that will deliver the most 

benefits, and the best value for money.

3⁄4 To obtain the funding we will need, we must 

identify the best opportunities for public 

investment, public-private partnerships, and 

other financing mechanisms.

For the U.S. Department of Transportation, that 

transformation has already begun. In just the 

past year, we have made great strides in how we 

make investments and regulate technologies: 

3⁄4 We released the Federal Automated Vehicle 

Policy Statement, which lays the groundwork 

for the safe development, testing, and 

regulation of highly automated vehicles. 

3⁄4 We launched the Smart City Challenge, 

which inspired 78 cities to develop visions 

to transform urban mobility, and we 

committed $40 million to help Columbus, 

Ohio, become the country’s first city to fully 

integrate innovative technologies into their 

transportation network. 

3⁄4 We developed the Small Unmanned Aerial 

Systems Rule, providing national guidelines 

for the operation of non-recreational 

unmanned aircraft under 55 pounds, to 

enable the commercial application of drones 

by a wide range of industries.

3⁄4 We launched a series of initiatives, like the 

Every Place Counts Challenge, to demonstrate 

how innovative transportation projects, 

learn from our long history, can revitalize 

communities and connect people to 

opportunity.

In short, our challenge is to build a transportation 

system that meets the needs of the future—not 

the past. We may not be able to predict the 

future with certainty—but we are certain that if 

we fail to adapt, we will fall behind.

Our nation once had a transportation system 

that was the envy of the world. We built the 

Erie Canal, the Transcontinental Railroad, the 

Interstate Highway System, and set the world 

standard for aviation. These investments, each 

in their turn, opened up enormous opportunities 

for Americans: creating jobs and new sources of 

wealth, opening markets, and giving American 

businesses a significant advantage over 

economic competitors. 

But Beyond Traffic reveals that over the next 

thirty years, our transportation system, which 

has powered our rise as a nation and enabled 

generations of economic growth, could become 

a drag on our economy and our way of life. 

Some warning signs are already all too clear. 

This year, for instance, the average American 

driver in a city or a suburb will spend an entire 

work week sitting in traffic. This year, trucks will 

lose $28 billion in wasted time and fuel. This 

year, the companies that depend on our nation’s 

transportation system—and the millions of 

workers who power those companies—will feel 

the effects.

And the effects are stark. Many of our major hub 

airports face severe congestion, which causes 

delays that have become chronic. Aging locks 

and dams are raising the costs of moving freight 

and fuel along our inland waterways. Ports need 

dredging and modernization if they are going 

to continue to compete, and to sustain jobs 

and regional economies. The transit systems 

that support millions of commuters throughout 

America face a $100 billion maintenance backlog 

and are becoming increasingly unreliable.

Most troubling of all, and bucking a long 

historical trend of steady improvements, is an 
3 BEYOND TRAFFIC

increase in traffic fatalities, which rose a startling 

7 percent in 2015. Preliminary estimates for the 

first half of 2016 are even more alarming—an 

increase of over 10 percent compared to the first 

half of 2015. Last year, 35,092 people were killed 

in traffic crashes. These people are all of us: your 

neighbor driving to work. Your niece walking to 

the park. Your brother biking home. Each day 

in America, nearly 100 people die from vehiclerelated accidents. We should not accept even 

one.

These are problems we must fix. The good news 

is: these are problems we can fix. The future is 

a choice that is ours to make. But, of course, to 

shape the future we desire—a future where no 

one dies on our highways, flights and freight are 

not chronically delayed, and our efficient, clean, 

and accessible transportation system is again 

the envy of the world—we must start now. To 

truly move Beyond Traffic, we must begin making 

choices today.

Our analysis characterizes six major trends 

shaping transportation, and objectively identifies 

the critical policy choices we will need to make.

First, how will we move? How will we build 

a transportation system to accommodate 

a growing population and changing travel 

patterns? 

3⁄4 America’s population will grow by 70 million 

by 2045. 

3⁄4 By 2050, emerging megaregions could 

absorb 75 percent of the U.S. population; 

rural populations are expected to continue 

declining.

3⁄4 Population growth will be greatest in the 

South and West; existing infrastructure might 

not be able to accommodate it.

3⁄4 It is possible that Americans, particularly 

millennials, will continue—as a matter of 

preference—reducing trips by car in favor of 

more trips by transit and intercity passenger 

rail.

3⁄4 By 2045, there will be nearly twice as many 

older Americans as now; they will need 

quality connections to medical care and 

related services.

Our basic policy for decades has been to expand 

capacity to meet demand by building new 

facilities. This in itself may not be enough in 

the face of a growing and changing population, 

increasing congestion, and deteriorating 

infrastructure conditions. 

Key policy options to address how we will move 

include: 

3⁄4 Increase infrastructure capacity: build new 

roads, bridges, and other facilities; maintain 

existing facilities more effectively; use existing 

facilities more effectively by implementing 

better designs and technologies; or use some 

combination of these methods

3⁄4 Reduce congestion through land use, 

telework and flex-time work schedules, 

smaller and automated vehicles, and pricing

3⁄4 Promote public transit, biking, walking, and 

mobility on demand

Second, how will we move things? And reduce 

freight chokepoints that drive up the cost of 

doing business? 

3⁄4 By 2045, freight volume will increase by more 

than 40 percent.

3⁄4 Online shopping is driving up demand 

for small package home delivery, which 

could soon substitute for many household 

shopping trips.
INTRODUCTION 4

3⁄4 Airline mergers and the consolidation of hubs 

may result in increased air traffic congestion.

3⁄4 International trade balances, due in 

part to low U.S. energy costs, could shift 

from imports toward exports, but overall 

globalization will increase both, straining 

ports and border crossings.

3⁄4 Strong domestic energy production may 

enable the U.S. to become a natural gas 

net exporter by 2020, but pipeline capacity 

may hamper growth and lead to greater 

movement of oil by rail.

Key policy options to address how we will move 

things include: 

3⁄4 Improve freight planning and coordination at 

national, regional and local levels

3⁄4 Target policies and investments aimed at 

resolving freight congestion 

3⁄4 Encourage innovative strategies to address 

first- and last-mile freight issues

Third, how will we adapt? And make our 

infrastructure more resilient? 

3⁄4 Predicted rises in global temperatures and 

mean sea levels, and more frequent and 

intense storm events, could drastically affect 

highways, bridges, public transportation, 

coastal ports, and waterways.

3⁄4 Federal fuel economy standards are slated to 

rise to the equivalent of 54.5 miles per gallon 

by 2025.

3⁄4 Sales of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles 

are growing rapidly and have the potential to 

greatly reduce transportation emissions.

Key policy options to address how we will adapt 

include: 

3⁄4 Reduce transportation emissions by 

improving fuel efficiency and increasing the 

use of alternative, cleaner fuels

3⁄4 Align costs and incentives to encourage 

sustainable development patterns and 

research into new technologies that can aid 

in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and 

energy use

3⁄4 Design and build better infrastructure that 

is more resilient to events such as severe 

storms, rising sea levels, and flooding 

3⁄4 Avoid developments in vulnerable locations

Fourth, how will we move better? And 

knock down barriers to new technologies that 

promise to make travel safer, cheaper, and more 

convenient? 

3⁄4 Technological changes and innovation may 

transform vehicles, infrastructure, logistics, 

and the delivery of transportation services.

3⁄4 New sources of travel data have the potential 

to improve travelers’ experiences, support 

more efficient management of transportation 

systems, and inform thoughtful investment 

decisions.

3⁄4 Automation and robotics will affect all modes 

of transportation, improving infrastructure 

maintenance and travel safety, and enabling 

the mainstream use of autonomous vehicles.

Key policy options to address how we will move 

better include: 

3⁄4 Address regulatory barriers to deployment 

of new technologies or procedures; develop 

infrastructure and standards to support 

emerging technologies
5 BEYOND TRAFFIC

3⁄4 Collect and manage data and transition 

to a data-driven investment system, while 

protecting individual privacy 

3⁄4 Support research on technological 

developments and deployment 

3⁄4 Maintain a paramount focus on safety

Fifth, how will we grow opportunity for all?

How will we create a transportation system that 

connects all Americans to the American dream?

3⁄4 The top 10 percent of income-earning 

families now earn as much income as the 

remaining 90 percent.

3⁄4 Middle- and low-income American 

households spend, on average, nearly 20 

percent of their income on transportation 

and 40 percent on housing—higher shares 

than for wealthier Americans.

3⁄4 Between 2000 and 2012, the number of poor 

people living in suburbs increased from 10 

million to 16.5 million. Today, more poor 

people live in the suburbs than in the cities or 

rural areas.

3⁄4 Sprawling urban development is increasing, 

as is economic segregation; economic 

opportunity and social mobility are 

decreasing.

Key policy options to address how we will grow 

opportunity for all include:

3⁄4 Prioritize transportation investments in 

communities with the greatest needs, and 

ensure that local communities benefit from 

transportation investments 

3⁄4 Coordinate transportation and land-use 

policy, so that different kinds of decisions 

reinforce each other for community good

3⁄4 Support affordable transportation services 

accessible to all Americans

Finally, how will we align decisions and 

dollars? And invest the trillions of dollars our 

transportation system needs in the smartest way 

possible? 

3⁄4 Public revenues to support transportation 

are not keeping up with the rising costs of 

maintenance and capacity expansion.

3⁄4 Nearly two-thirds of our roads are rated in 

less than good condition; a quarter of our 

bridges need significant repair. 

3⁄4 Federal gasoline-tax revenues have failed to 

keep up with our transportation needs and 

could decline further as vehicle fuel efficiency 

improves, and inflation further erodes 

purchasing power.

3⁄4 Insufficient highway and transit revenues and 

the absence of reliable federal funding for 

rail, marine highways, and ports have created 

a need for new financing mechanisms.

Key policy options to address how we will align 

decisions and dollars include:

3⁄4 Ensure adequate revenues to address critical 

needs, through existing taxes, new excise 

taxes, user fees, tolls, congestion pricing, 

vehicle-miles-traveled fees, or other funding 

mechanisms

3⁄4 Reduce spending to match revenues, and 

address the resulting consequences to the 

transportation system

3⁄4 Prioritize investments based on performance 

outcomes

3⁄4 Ensure clear roles of the public and private 

sectors: clarify authorities; seek changes 

in authority (e.g., greater federal role, the 

devolution of more functions to non-federal 

entities, privatization); improve investment 

coordination between sectors and levels of 

government
INTRODUCTION 6

Beyond Traffic does not close the book on these 

questions. It opens the book wider, giving all of 

us more and better data with which to answer 

them. 

Our hope is that Beyond Traffic provides 

Americans with a common basis of fact for a 

larger national discussion about the future 

of transportation. The trends shaping our 

transportation system will require changes in 

policy, new approaches to planning, and greater 

coordination between all levels of government, 

and between government and the private sector. 

These are, individually big challenges; in its 

totality, the task is daunting.

We can do it.

Let’s get started on our transportation future.
7 BEYOND TRAFFIC

TRENDS

What forces are challenging our nation’s transportation system 

the most?

How We Move

This section describes demographic, economic, 

geographic, and cultural trends affecting 

everyday travel. The focus is on the most 

common form of travel for most Americans: 

short-distance trips by surface transportation. 

How We Move Things

This section describes emerging challenges and 

opportunities in the freight sector. It discusses 

how changes in population, economy, and 

technology are affecting the movement of cargo 

and energy. 

How We Adapt

This section describes how the transportation 

system is contributing to, and may be 

impacted by, climate change. It discusses 

how the transportation sector is finding ways 

to limit greenhouse gas emissions, as well 

as the challenges of developing a resilient 

transportation system that can withstand the 

projected impacts of climate change, today and 

in the future.

How We Move Better

In this section, discussion focuses on how 

technological advances, many of which have 

originated outside of the transportation sector 

and are now ready for implementation within it, 

are affecting and will affect our transportation 

system. 

How We Grow Opportunity 

for All

Our transportation system connects people to 

opportunity: jobs, schools, childcare, and medical 

services. However, our infrastructure all too 

often reinforces growing economic divisions in 

our society, dividing and neglecting low-income 

communities and enabling economic and racial 

segregation. This section examines the role 

transportation plays in creating and bridging 

social divides.

How We Align Decisions and 

Dollars

This section explains the evolving role of 

government in planning, building, managing, and 

regulating the transportation system. It describes 

the financial challenges many governments are 

facing and discusses how the role of government 

and the way transportation is funded may 

change. 
HOW WE MOVE 8

HOW WE MOVE

Introduction 

Our transportation system connects us to our 

work, our homes, and our friends and families. 

We all have different needs and different values 

that we consider as we make transportation 

decisions—but we all value the connections that 

our transportation system provides.

As our population grows and changes, our needs 

and preferences will also change. In fact, we are 

already changing how we travel. Americans are 

walking, biking, and taking transit more than 

they did a decade ago. Many young Americans 

are choosing not to own cars—some do not even 

seek driver’s licenses. We do more and more 

things online instead of in-person—teleworking, 

socializing, and shopping. These alternatives to 

vehicle travel are growing as traffic congestion 

continues to increase and vehicle travel becomes 

less reliable and convenient. 

This chapter examines some of the most 

important demographics and trends in everyday 

personal travel that will shape our transportation 

network by 2045.

Demographics: Increasing 

Population

Over the past 30 years the American population 

has increased 35 percent—from 239 million to 

322 million. As our nation grows, so does our 

demand for travel. Today there are more people 

on the roads and in our airports and our rail 

stations than ever before. 
9 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Unfortunately, the capacity of our transportation 

system has not kept up with our requirements. 

Many roads and airports cannot accommodate 

the growing demand for travel, leading to record 

levels of congestion on our roads and frequent 

delays across our aviation system. 

By 2045, our population is expected to increase 

by nearly 70 million people. That is a slower 

growth rate than previous decades, but it still 

means that we will add more than the current 

population of New York, Florida, and Texas 

combined. Our growing population will lead 

to increasing overall demand for travel even 

as rising congestion could make travel so 

inconvenient that many individuals will seek to 

travel less.

How will we accommodate 70 million more 

people and growing amounts of freight—with 

an aging transportation system that is already 

strained for capacity? Meeting the needs of the 

next generation of travelers requires us to make 

smart choices today. 

Changing Driving Habits

Over the past 50 years, as our suburbs have 

grown, we have depended more and more on 

cars. But our travel patterns are shifting and 

long-term growth in driving may be slowing. 

Between 2006 and 2013 per capita vehicle miles 

traveled, a measure of how much people drive, 

declined each year, causing economists to revise 

long-term traffic growth projections downward. 

In 2014 and 2015, traffic growth rebounded and 

total vehicle miles traveled reached record highs, 

yet on a per capita basis vehicle miles traveled 

remains below its 2005 peak.

Traffic congestion is severe, particularly in large 

urban areas, where population and economic 

growth is the greatest. By some calculations, 

the average auto commuter in urban areas 

spends the equivalent of five vacation days each 

year delayed by traffic. In fact, high levels of 

congestion may be spurring some Americans to 

make different choices about where they live and 

how they get around. 

Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, Americans 

spent more and more of their time in cars as 

commute lengths increased and traffic grew. 

Personal vehicle travel increased as a share of 

all travel; carpooling, transit, and walking all 

declined. Driving became more affordable as the 

cost of cars and gas fell relative to other costs 

and fuel economies improved. More Americans 

entered the workforce, especially women, and 

the boundaries of metropolitan areas expanded. 

The population of the suburbs increased and 

rural areas on the fringe of metropolitan areas 

became exurbs. Meanwhile, the population of 

cities stagnated. Commutes grew in distance and 

commuters spent more time in traffic. 

By the mid-2000s, these trends began to change. 

Americans drove less on average in 2006 than 

in 2005, the first year per-capita driving had 

declined since the oil crises of the 1970s. The 

rate of women entering the workforce slowed 

and baby boomers began to pass their peak 

driving years. Gas prices increased to historic 

highs and entered a period of volatility. Then 

came the Great Recession. Unemployment 

doubled. Property values plummeted and 

housing construction ground to a halt. Economic 

uncertainty affected nearly everyone. Many 

Americans put off buying cars or homes, starting 

families, or beginning new careers. Driving 

rates declined and the use of other modes of 

transportation increased. Congestion, while still 

severe in many metropolitan areas, also declined 

from peak levels.
HOW WE MOVE 10

BUMPER TO BUMPER

The annual cost of 

congestion in delays 

and lost fuel is

$160

BILLION

The annual cost of 

truck congestion is 

$28

BILLION

42

each year

On average, 

we spend over 

HOURS
11 BEYOND TRAFFIC

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0

-1%

-2%

-3%

-4% 

Annual Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled Per Capita

Change From Previous Year

198619881990199219941996199820002002

2004

2006200820102012

2015 

Annual % change in VMT

RAIL TRANSIT USE INCREASED BY 

37 PERCENT AND THE NUMBER 

OF PEOPLE CYCLING TO WORK 

INCREASED BY 59 PERCENT 

OVER THE LAST DECADE.

Today unemployment rates are approaching 

pre-recession levels. People are working and 

once again buying houses and cars. Gas prices 

have returned to levels not seen in a decade and 

the overall amount of driving, as measured by 

vehicle miles traveled, has rebounded to peak 

levels. However, many experts now acknowledge 

that declining workforce participation, an 

aging and urbanizing population, increasing 

opportunities to telework, and changing attitudes 

toward commuting and a return to urban living 

may dampen long-term growth in driving.

Millennial Driving Patterns

While Americans on average are driving less 

than they did a decade ago, on a per capita 

basis, younger adults are driving much less. The 

travel behaviors of young adults matter. Today 

there are 83 million Americans aged 15 to 34, 

compared to 75 million Americans aged 51 to 69. 

In 2009, Americans between the ages of 18 and 

34 drove 21 percent fewer miles than those in 

that age group did in 2001. Fewer young adults 

are getting driver’s licenses. Today nearly one in 

five young adults do not have a driver’s license. 

The decline in licensure rates among young 

adults over the past decade has resulted in 3 

million fewer drivers on the road than there 

would have been had licensure rates remained 

what they were ten years ago.

Younger adults are also more likely to take 

transit. According to surveys, adults under the 
HOW WE MOVE 12

age of 30 are more than twice as likely as their 

older counterparts to use transit.

Changes in household formation are affecting 

changing travel behavior in America, particularly 

among millennials. Americans are waiting longer 

to form families and have children. Household 

size is decreasing and the percent of Americans 

living alone is increasing. Today 35 million 

Americans live alone, an increase of nearly 70 

percent over the past 30 years. 

The Great Recession also hit young adults 

particularly hard. Many struggled to find a 

job and strike out on their own. Student debt 

burdens increased. Between 1990 and 2015, 

the proportion of Americans aged 18–34 living 

with their parents increased from 24 percent 

to 33 percent. These trends may have affected 

the ability of many young adults to afford a car, 

and delayed choices, such as having children 

or buying a home, which often led to increased 

driving. 

Social trends are changing attitudes about travel, 

especially among young adults. From Uber to 

Zipcar to Skype, young adults are increasingly 

using technology to find new ways to travel or 

to avoid traveling. Surveys of millennials have 

shown that they are more likely to value access 

to their phone over access to a car and to shop 

or socialize online as alternatives to driving. 

It remains unclear whether driving less is a 

matter of choice or a matter of economic 

necessity. It is conceivable that a significant 

portion of young adults have learned to manage 

without a car and will continue to drive less 

throughout their lives than previous generations. 

What is clear is that millennials are choosing 

where they live and how they get around based 

on their budget and their lifestyle.

If over the next 30 years, some portion of 

Americans continue to drive less it could mean 

less pollution and less congestion. It could also 

reduce gas tax revenues, making it difficult to 

maintain our roads and bridges. It might also 

mean that we have learned to live with an 

inadequate, congested transportation system by 

traveling less.

Older Americans

Changes in the age of our population will have 

a lasting effect on how much we drive. Older 

FHWA FORECASTS SHOW VEHICLE 

MILES TRAVELED (VMT) PER 

CAPITA REMAINING RELATIVELY 

STABLE AND OVERALL VMT 

INCREASING BY 23 TO 27 PERCENT 

OVER THE NEXT 30 YEARS.
13 BEYOND TRAFFIC

BETWEEN 1990 AND 2015, THE 

PROPORTION OF AMERICANS 

AGED 18–34 LIVING WITH THEIR 

PARENTS INCREASED FROM 24 

PERCENT TO 33 PERCENT.

Labor Force Participation Rate

Labor Force Participation Rate

1985199019941998200220062010201420182024

68%

66%

64%

62%

60%

58%

Forecast

Americans drive less on average than other 

Americans. On average, Americans over the age 

of 65 drive half the amount of Americans aged 

25 to 64. That said, Americans are living longer 

and healthier lives and they are retiring later in 

life. Over the next 30 years, older Americans may 

work later in their lives and travel for work and 

leisure more often.

As the population as a whole ages, the 

proportion of Americans in the workforce is 

expected to shrink. Workforce participation, 

which peaked at 67 percent in 2000, is less than 

63 percent today, and may decline to below 60 

percent by 2045. While the population as a whole 

will grow by approximately 20 percent over the 

next 30 years, the workforce will grow by just 10 

percent. Declining workforce participation may 

slow growth in traffic, and rush hour traffic in 

particular.

By 2045, there will be an estimated 84 million 

Americans older than 65. That is nearly twice 

as many older Americans as there are today. 

Accommodating the travel needs of a growing 

population of older Americans could further 

strain transportation systems that are already 

facing multiple challenges. Public transit use by 

older Americans increased by approximately 

40 percent over the past decade; even so, older 

adults use public transit for less than 3 percent of 

all trips.

Older Americans are more likely to have physical 

limitations, and, as they age, cognitive limitations 

that create challenges for driving, walking, and 

using traditional, fixed-route transit. In fact, 

older people who suffer from limitations related 

to health must often cease walking or using 

traditional public transit before they are forced 

to cease driving. Half of Americans over the age 

of 65 report having some form of disability, and 

one in three reported having trouble getting the 

transportation that they need. 
HOW WE MOVE 14

74 75 

70 70 

32 

79 81 

84 

80 

65 

0 

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

90 

0 - 17 18 - 34 35-51 52-69 70+ 

Millions 

2015 

2045 

Age Group

For Americans of all ages with disabilities—

economic challenges, institutional barriers, and 

inaccessible services and infrastructure pose 

the greatest challenges to mobility. Difficulty 

affording a vehicle, inaccessible bus stops, or 

unreliable or infrequent transit service can make 

it difficult for people with disabilities to get and 

keep a good job or to get to important health and 

social services. 

While public transit systems have made great 

strides in improving the accessibility of their 

buses and rail stations, infrequent off-peak 

service, poor reliability, inadequate pedestrian 

infrastructure, and a lack of appropriate 

assistance from drivers can pose barriers to 

greater public transit use by older Americans. 

Paratransit services—individualized door-to-door 

transportation services—offer a good option for 

some, but they are more than three times as 

expensive to provide as traditional, fixed-route 

transit services. As transit agencies have invested 

in paratransit to meet ADA requirements, many 

have also raised fares, restricted services, and set 

stricter rider eligibility guidelines.

How can we ensure that older Americans who 

may not be able to drive are still able to maintain 

their quality of life and connection to critical 

services? Many older people have long depended 

on driving to maintain their lifestyles and may 

face serious mobility problems if and when they 

can no longer drive. Some rely on relatives and 

friends, but others face isolation and a reduced 

quality of life. Older Americans are unlikely to 

want to move from their homes to areas with 

better access to services. For people to be able 
15 BEYOND TRAFFIC

U.S. Population: Urban, Suburban, and Rural

19801990200020102040

In Millions

Suburban

Urban

Rural

101

57 56 55 51 35

68 78 85 102

141

208

115

141

157

54%

37%

9%

to age in their community and to maintain 

their connections to family, friends, and critical 

services, as with healthcare, they need access to 

a responsive and reliable transportation system 

designed to meet their needs.

Metropolitan Growth and 

Land Use

Our cities and suburbs are growing and the 

population in rural areas is declining. Over the 

past three decades our population has grown 

increasingly suburban. Today, approximately 

half of all Americans live in the suburbs. Threequarters of all population growth since 1980 has 

occurred in the suburbs. Jobs have also moved 

to the suburbs. In 2010, the number of jobs in 

metropolitan areas located more than 10 miles 

from downtown was nearly double the number 

of jobs located fewer than three miles from 

downtown. 

With both population and employment moving 

to the suburbs, commuting is not simply 

about moving people from suburban homes 

to downtown jobs. Today, nearly four in ten of 
HOW WE MOVE 16

Jacksonville Expands Transportation Options 

In recent years, the population of Jacksonville has grown at a rate nearly twice the 

national average, largely as the result of burgeoning employment opportunities 

in Northeast Florida. This growth has presented a major transportation challenge 

for Jacksonville. Traffic congestion is getting worse and convenient public transit 

alternatives to downtown jobs are in short supply. In order to help move the city’s 

growing population, the Jacksonville Transportation Authority is using $9.3 million 

in federal funding to implement a bus rapid transit (BRT) system. BRT systems use 

dedicated bus lanes to offer faster, more frequent, and more reliable trips to travelers. 

Jacksonville’s BRT, known as the First Coast Flyer, will begin with six miles of routes and 

expand to a system of over 50 miles by 2019. First Coast Flyer is just one key element of 

Jacksonville’s larger vision for transforming their transportation system. In addition to 

transit improvements, city leaders plan to invest $100 million in new road work. 

all commutes begin and end in the suburbs. 

Population and job growth in America’s suburbs 

have serious implications for our transportation 

policy. Congestion may worsen as more 

Americans live in areas where transit service is 

less robust and where everyday trips to work, 

school, or a doctor’s appointment, for example, 

are more likely to involve longer distances. 

Growing suburbanization also presents 

challenges for connecting older and low-income 

Americans to social services and jobs. 

In recent years, the long-term trend of suburban 

growth has shown signs of shifting. The rate of 

suburban population growth peaked in the 1990s 

as exurbs grew on the fringes of metropolitan 

areas, leading to the incorporation of previously 

rural areas. In the 2000s, suburban population 

growth started to slow, while population growth 

in cities began to increase. Between 2010 and 

2013, the annual population growth rate of 

large cities was double what it was the previous 

decade, outpacing growth in the suburbs. As 

cities became more desirable, housing prices in 

many of the wealthiest cities increased rapidly. 

However, these population growth patterns may 

be reverting to pre-recession form. In 2014 and 

2015 population growth in suburban counties 

outpaced growth in urban counties.

Despite signs of change in settlement patterns, 

our population is likely to remain primarily 

suburban. On balance, Americans tend to move 

to areas with lower density, cheaper housing, 

and more jobs. Most of the fastest growing 

metropolitan regions in the country are in less 

dense regions in the South and West such as 

Dallas, Houston, Charlotte, Phoenix, Denver, and 

Orlando. 

Population and economic growth in metropolitan 

areas is fostering the development of 

megaregions: networks of urban clusters 

connected not just by infrastructure but by 

economic and social relationships. Most of our 

nation’s population growth, and an even larger 

share of job growth, over the next 30 years will 

take place in these regional clusters of cities. 

Residents of megaregions share mutual interests 

and depend on the same critical infrastructure—

airports, ports, transit systems, and freight 
17 BEYOND TRAFFIC
HOW WE MOVE 18

corridors. However, these regions span counties 

and states which are often in competition 

with each other. The growth of megaregions 

will require greater regional collaboration and 

integration to ensure regions remain competitive 

in a global economy. 

Regional Differences

Population growth has been strongest in the 

South and the West. Between 1980 and 2010, 

the South and West added 68 million people, 

accounting for 83 percent of all population 

growth. Many of the metropolitan areas in these 

regions have experienced particularly high rates 

of population growth, resulting in rising demand 

for transportation system capacity and increasing 

levels of traffic congestion. At the same time, 

many counties in the Midwest and Northeast 

have been losing population. 

As the economy has shifted away from 

agriculture and manufacturing, rural counties 

in the Midwest and industrial counties in the 

Great Lakes region have shrunk. Between 1980 

and 2010, more than 1,000 counties—nearly 40 

percent of rural counties—experienced a net 

loss in population. As suburbs have expanded, 

rural populations have declined, birth rates in 

many rural areas have declined, and retirees and 

job seekers have moved to metropolitan areas. 

Although some rural areas, such as counties in 

recreational areas in the Rocky Mountains and 

along the Pacific Coast and areas near rapidly 

expanding metropolitan areas such as Atlanta, 

have experienced rapid growth.

Low-population density and slow or 

declining population growth in rural areas 

creates challenges for providing adequate 

transportation. The smaller tax base makes it 

difficult to fund the construction, maintenance, 

and operation of transportation systems. Rural 

economies are more likely to rely on freight 

intensive industries, such as agriculture, mining, 

forestry, and manufacturing that can lead 

to higher infrastructure maintenance costs. 

Greater distances between locations, and, in 

some areas, rougher terrains, can contribute to 

higher transportation costs for households and 

businesses. Rural areas with declining population 

or economic growth face the threat of decreasing 

transportation services, such as the closure of 

regional airports or decreases in freight and 

intercity passenger rail service, such as Amtrak. 

As a result, rural households and businesses 

tend to have fewer transportation choices and 

are more likely to be sensitive to increases in 

transportation costs. 

Transportation issues caused by slow or 

declining economic and population growth are 

not solely a rural problem. Even as urban areas 

gained population overall, some of the largest 

population losses over the past 30 years have 

Percentage of 

American Workers 

Who Work from Home

4.8% 5.3% 5.6%

6.6%

4.9%

2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 2.8%

1997 1999 2002 2005 201 0

2.3%

Worked from Home at Least 

One Day/Week

Worked Exclusively from Home 10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0
19 BEYOND TRAFFIC

occurred in metropolitan counties. A number of 

traditional manufacturing cities—in New York, 

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan—lost 

population. Areas with shrinking populations face 

challenges maintaining existing infrastructure 

and preserving access to economic opportunities 

and social services. 

Innovations in How We Move 

Advances in mobile and information technologies 

are allowing Americans to make different travel 

choices. The availability of global positioning 

systems (GPS) has made it easier for individuals 

and businesses to find the most efficient routes 

to their destination. Increasingly, the public has 

access to real-time traffic conditions and public 

transit schedule information, giving them more 

power to set and change travel schedules and 

routes. Innovations in the business world that 

use these technologies are also changing the way 

Americans access transportation, and the way 

they consume goods and services. 

Travel preferences, flexible schedules, “hoteling” 

(unassigned office seating), teleworking, and 

improvements in communications technologies 

are all changing how many Americans work and 

commute to work. Nearly one in ten American 

workers work from home at least one day per 

week. The number of Americans who work 

from home at least one day a week increased 

by 43 percent between 1997 and 2010. The 

fastest growing “mode” for commuting is, in fact, 

telecommuting.

Many employers now have much more flexibility 

in how their workers can commute and interact 

with their coworkers. Well over one-third of 

workers have the ability to set or change their 

arrival time at work—including nearly half of 

those in professional, managerial, and technical 

occupations. Increases in telecommuting and 

flexible work schedules could help to reduce 

congestion in large metropolitan areas by 

reducing travel demand at the busiest times of 

day.

E-commerce may soon substitute for a 

significant portion of household shopping 

trips. Currently, more than one in five trips 

taken by households is a shopping trip; online 

shopping has not yet significantly affected this 

pattern. In 2009, the average household reported 

purchasing three items per month online, and 

approximately 4 percent of retail sales were 

made online—but, by 2016, e-commerce sales 

accounted for 7.5 percent of all sales. The most 

common types of products purchased online 

were consumer electronics, books, and clothing. 

Online shopping continues to grow rapidly and 

its use is significantly more widespread among 

younger age cohorts. At current rates of growth, 

online purchases could account for 10 percent of 

retail in less than five years. 

New ways to access transportation are 

emerging that could reduce the degree to 

which Americans rely on personal vehicles.

AS ONLINE SHOPPING CAPTURES 

A LARGE MARKET SHARE, IT WILL 

REDUCE TRAVEL ASSOCIATED 

WITH SHOPPING TRIPS, AND 

REDUCE THE NEED FOR PRIVATE 

VEHICLE OWNERSHIP, BUT IT MAY 

ALSO INCREASE TRUCK TRAFFIC 

IN URBAN AREAS AS GOODS ARE 

DELIVERED TO RESIDENCES.
HOW WE MOVE 20

UBER, LAUNCHED IN 2010, 

IS VALUED AT ROUGHLY $80 

BILLION, AND OPERATES 

IN HUNDREDS OF CITIES 

WORLDWIDE. RIVAL RIDE-HAILING 

COMPANY, LYFT, HAS RECEIVED 

SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENT IN 

THE LAST YEAR, INCLUDING 

A NEW $1 BILLION FUNDING 

ROUND, LED BY A $500 MILLION 

INVESTMENT BY GENERAL 

MOTORS IN JANUARY 2016.

ON AN AVERAGE DAY IN 

AMERICA, 96 PEOPLE DIE IN 

MOTOR VEHICLE CRASHES AND 

NEARLY 6,700 ARE INJURED.

Car sharing is growing at a rapid rate. In 2015, 

there were 1.2 million members in 23 active carsharing programs in the United States, marking a 

more than tenfold increase in membership over 

the past decade. For many urban households, 

car-sharing services make it more convenient to 

not own a private vehicle. For those households, 

car sharing makes using a car more affordable. 

Car sharing also reduces the incentive for 

households to own cars (either a second car, or 

any car at all). New sharing and ride-matching 

services now emerging allow individuals to share 

their personal vehicles with others and to match 

drivers with passengers. 

In recent years, bike-share systems have 

emerged in some 65 cities, including New York, 

Chicago, San Francisco, Minneapolis, Boston, 

and Washington, D.C. Bike-share systems allow 

people to conveniently travel short distances 

as well as connect to other modes, particularly 

public transit. They also allow tourists to travel by 

bike. Similar to car sharing, bike sharing provides 

a low-cost mobility service that addresses “firstmile” and “last-mile” needs. 

Ride-sourcing services, such as Lyft and Uber, are 

growing rapidly, both disrupting and augmenting 

traditional taxi service by using mobile apps to 

connect for-hire drivers to users. In response, 

traditional taxi companies are also adopting new 

technologies to make their service more reliable 

and convenient. Some cities have found that ridesourcing services can help to supplement transit 

service by providing efficient, direct service for 

short trips and providing service during transit 

system off-hours.

These services may make it more likely that 

households decide to go car free. Despite a longterm trend toward increasing car ownership, 

recent years have shown a slight uptick in the 

portion of zero-vehicle households. Today more 

than 10 million households are vehicle free. 

Households that are vehicle free are much more 

likely to rely on transit and use car-sharing and 

ride-sharing services, such as Lyft, Uber, Car2Go, 

and ZipCar. They are also more likely to bike or 

walk for most trips.

The recent emergence of ride-sourcing 

businesses demonstrates a key challenge for 

governments. The sharing economy uses the 

Internet and mobile apps to allow individuals to 

monetize underutilized space, assets, and skills. 

The emerging sharing economy defies traditional 
21 BEYOND TRAFFIC

categories of “business” and “personal” and new 

business models are proliferating faster than the 

legal and regulatory arenas can adapt to them. 

Over the next 30 years, our legal and regulatory 

system may be increasingly challenged by 

emerging forms of business and travel that 

transcend traditional legal and planning 

concepts. 

Roadway Safety

Transportation safety is a critical societal issue 

and the U.S. DOT’s top priority. Among Americans 

aged 1 to 34, motor vehicle crashes are the 

leading cause of death. Americans spend more 

than 1 million days in the hospital each year as 

a result of crash injuries. In 2015, motor vehicle 

crashes resulted in 2.4 million injuries and 35,092 

deaths, including 1,144 children under the age 

of 15. The 7.2 percent increase in traffic fatalities 

between 2014 and 2015 represents the greatest 

percentage increase in nearly 50 years.

Among those killed, almost half were not wearing 

a seatbelt and nearly a third of fatalities involved 

an alcohol-impaired driver. Crash injuries resulted 

in Americans paying an estimated $23 billion in 

medical costs and losing an estimated $58 billion 

in lost work productivity. 

Over the past decade, trends have shown an 

increasing number of Americans walking and 

bicycling for commuting and recreation. Over 

the same period, bicyclist and pedestrian injuries 

and fatalities have increased. In 2015, 818 cyclists 

were killed in traffic accidents, making up 2.3 

percent of all crash fatalities. Pedestrian fatalities 

have increased over the past five years. In 2015, 

5,376 pedestrians were killed in traffic accidents. 

Pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities increased from 
HOW WE MOVE 22

BARRING MAJOR SOCIAL 

CHANGES, WE WILL REMAIN A 

LARGELY SUBURBAN POPULATION 

GIVEN THE CURRENT HOUSING 

SUPPLY AND INFRASTRUCTURE 

NETWORK IN SUBURBS.

13 percent of all traffic fatalities in 2005 to 18 

percent in 2015. 

Traffic safety continues to present a major 

challenge for our nation, and the precipitous 

increase in traffic fatalities in 2015 is deeply 

troubling. However, over the long-term 

safety has improved significantly across 

all transportation modes. Since 1990, the 

total number of transportation fatalities has 

decreased by 27 percent despite increasing 

passenger travel on all modes. Fatalities in 

commercial aviation have become exceedingly 

rare, and fatalities in rail and on waterborne 

transportation have steadily declined. These 

changes are the result of a wide range of factors, 

including improving vehicle technologies, safer 

infrastructure, increased enforcement, higher 

safety standards, slower traffic speeds, and 

changing demographics. 

For example, seatbelt use has increased 

dramatically from a national level of about 14 

percent in the early 1980s to 88 percent in 2015. 

It is estimated that seatbelt use alone saves more 

than 12,000 lives each year. Today, 49 states 

have adopted mandatory seatbelt-use laws. The 

introduction of airbags has also saved thousands 

of lives. The National Highway Traffic Safety 

Administration (NHTSA) estimates that since their 

introduction, frontal air bags have saved nearly 

43,000 lives. 

Vehicle safety technology has advanced beyond 

basic seatbelts and lighting, to high-tech safety 

features that can help drivers avoid crashes 

altogether. Thanks to continuing innovation, 

today’s vehicles have contributed to significant 

long-term decreases in crash-related fatalities 

and injuries nationwide. In addition to frontal 

and side air bags that help to prevent injuries 

in crashes, a number of crash avoidance 

technologies are now featured in passenger cars 

and trucks, including automated emergency 

braking systems, lane-departure and forward 

collision warning systems, and electronic stability 

control. In the future, connected and automated 

vehicle technologies could help drivers avoid a 

significant portion of the type of vehicle crashes 

that occur today.

Roadway safety is also improving thanks 

to innovations in roadway design and the 

introduction of a number of low-cost safety 

features to roadways. Roundabouts and other 

alternative intersection designs are improving 

safety and mobility at interchanges. Widespread 

use of rumble strips, reduced pavement 

edge drop-offs, and the application of highfriction surface treatments at critical locations 

are reducing the risk of crashes. Finally, the 

electronic collection of roadway and crash data 

is allowing decision makers to better understand 

the characteristics of high-crash locations 

and to systematically apply proven safety 

countermeasures to roadways.

Policy Implications

Understanding how people might travel and 

where they might live in the future helps 

planners and policymakers decide what policies 

and investments may be needed to ensure the 

performance of our transportation system. The 

trends in population, geography, and mobility 
23 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Attracting Millennials through Transportation

Across the country, cities are looking for ways to attract and retain young workers 

and promote local economic development. A survey conducted by the American 

Planning Association found that only 8 percent of millennials would prefer to live in 

an auto-dependent suburb. In Denver, city leaders have heard from both residents 

and business leaders that building a comprehensive bicycle network should be a top 

priority in order to attract and retain young people and the businesses that employ 

them. As a result, Denver’s Downtown Area Plan outlines a specific strategy to build 

protected bike lanes to promote mobility and economic development.

reviewed in this chapter begin to demonstrate 

the challenges and opportunities that will face us 

in the coming years. 

First and foremost, we will need to find 

ways to ensure that our already congested 

transportation system can accommodate the 

travel needs of nearly 70 million more people. 

To do this, we will either need more capacity to 

accommodate growing demand, or we will need 

strategies that result in more efficient use of 

existing capacity. Some strategies, like pricing, 

rely less on government investment; however, 

they may have other effects, such as creating 

“first” and “second” class transportation systems. 

Changes in the composition of our population 

will counteract some, but not nearly all, of the 

increase in demand for transportation. As our 

population ages and workforce participation 

declines, per capita driving rates will likely 

stabilize or decrease. However, an increasing 

number of older Americans living in autodependent areas will face challenges accessing 

critical services. 

We know that social and technological changes 

will affect how Americans travel, although 

we do not know exactly how. Millennials and 

future generations of Americans might drive 

less than their parents throughout their lives. 

They might prefer cities to suburbs, phones to 

cars, and buying their groceries from online 

retailers instead of going to the supermarket. 

Initial indications seem to suggest that the 

overall effects of changes like these may be to 

slow growth in individual driving rates—even as 

population increases result in more travelers on 

all modes. 

In 2045, most of us will probably still use 

personal vehicles to get to work and to go about 

our daily tasks. Our population will increasingly 

move toward large metropolitan areas. However, 

these metropolitan areas will not look like the 

cities of 100 or even 50 years ago. They will be 

much larger and much less dense, with new 

investments and developments being located 

outside the urban core where land is less 

expensive. Short of land-use plans that expressly 

curtail it, sprawl is likely to remain a dominant 

development pattern and, if we do not act, 

congestion will be much more widespread. 

Some cities are becoming laboratories for new 

types of transportation, including ride-sharing 

and ride-sourcing services, enhanced cycling 

facilities, and an expanding set of public transit 

options. However, if cities cannot find ways to 

affordably accommodate increased population 

growth, suburbs will grow at a faster rate. We 
HOW WE MOVE 24

may increasingly find ourselves in a world where 

some cities become the domain of the affluent, 

while those with less wealth must contend with 

congestion on metropolitan outskirts. As income 

inequality increases, and poverty becomes 

suburbanized, the provision of affordable 

housing and transportation options will become 

an increasingly important policy challenge.

As many metropolitan areas grow, rural 

populations and some economically challenged 

metropolitan areas are shrinking. These areas 

are likely to face challenges maintaining access 

for rural and economically disadvantaged 

populations as their tax bases decline. 

Governments at all levels will face challenges 

structuring programs to balance equity and 

fairness claims, while ensuring that scarce 

resources are allocated to areas that most need 

capacity. 

There is a wide range of policies that could 

potentially reduce congestion and preserve 

quality, affordable, and accessible transportation 

options for all of us. These options include:

3⁄4 Increasing investments in roadway capacity 

to address congestion in metropolitan areas.

3⁄4 Restructuring federal surface transportation 

programs to allow for more targeted, 

demand-driven, mode-neutral investments.

3⁄4 Expanding and/or improving the quality of 

public transit services by providing dedicated 

rights of way for transit buses.

3⁄4 Strengthening the coordination of human 

service transportation services to meet 

the needs of older adults and people with 

disabilities.

3⁄4 Continuing to improve the accessibility 

of public transit systems and pedestrian 

infrastructure.

3⁄4 Subsidizing car ownership for the working 

poor.

3⁄4 Promoting integrated transportation and 

land-use planning.

3⁄4 Supporting services such as bike sharing, car 

sharing, and ride sourcing.

3⁄4 Integrating land-use and transportation 

planning to support sustainable and efficient 

development patterns.

3⁄4 Supporting design and planning choices that 

support alternatives to vehicle travel.

3⁄4 Adopting congestion pricing.

3⁄4 Lifting the federal restriction on the tolling of 

interstate highways.

3⁄4 Encouraging companies to adopt telework 

policies.

3⁄4 Supporting investments in transportation 

technologies and operational strategies that 

can reduce congestion.

These policy options are explored in further 

depth in the conclusion of this report.  

References

Demographics: Increasing Population

● (BOC) Bureau of the Census. Population Estimates; 

“Historical Data.” (https://www.census.gov/popest/

data/historical) 

● (BOC) U.S. Census Bureau. Population Projection; 

“2014 National Population Projections: Summary 

Tables.” See “Table 1. Projections of the Population 

and Components of Change for the United 

States: 2015 to 2060.” (https://www.census.gov/

population/projections/data/national/2014/

summarytables.html) 

Figure. Population Increase

● (BOC) U.S. Census Bureau. Population Projection; 

“2014 National Population Projections: Summary 

Tables.” See “Table 1. Projections of the Population 

and Components of Change for the United 

States: 2015 to 2060.” (https://www.census.gov/

population/projections/data/national/2014/

summarytables.html)
25 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Changing Driving Habits

● Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Travel Volume 

Trends; “Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles 

Traveled.” (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

series/M12MTVUSM227NFWA#) 

● (AASHTO) American Associations of State Highway 

and Transportation Officials, Commuting in America 

2013, (http://traveltrends.transportation.org/Pages/

default.aspx)

● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration, FHWA 

Forecasts of Vehicle Miles Traveled: May 2015 

(https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/

tables/vmt/vmt_forecast_sum.cfm)

● Krauss, Clifford. The New York Times. “Driving Less, 

Americans Finally React to Sting of Gas Prices, a 

Study Says.” June 19, 2008. (http://www.nytimes.

com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html)

Figure: Bumper to Bumper

● Texas A&M Transportation Institute and INRIX, 

“2015 Urban Mobility Scorecard,” August 2015. 

http://d2dtl5nnlpfr0r.cloudfront.net/tti.tamu.edu/

documents/mobility-scorecard-2015-wappx.pdf

Figure. VMT Per Capita

● Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Travel Volume 

Trends; “Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles 

Traveled.” (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

series/M12MTVUSM227NFWA#) 

Figure. U.S. Retail Gas Prices

● U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Weekly 

U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline 

Prices” (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/

LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_

DPG&f=W)

Millennial Driving Patterns

● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration, Summary 

of Travel Trends: 2009 National Household Travel 

Survey, 2011 (http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/stt.pdf)

● FHWA, Highway Statistics Series, Table DL-20, 

“Licensed drivers, by sex and percentage by age 

group”

● (BOC) U.S. Census Bureau, National Population 

Estimates for the 2010s.

● (BOC) U.S. Census Bureau, ASEC, HH-4: Households 

by Size: 1960 to Present.

● (BOC) U.S. Census Bureau, ASEC, MS-2: Estimated 

Median Age at First Marriage: 1890 to Present.

● Nielsen. Millennials Prefer Cities to Suburbs, 

Subways to Driveways. News release. March 4, 

2014. (http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/

news/2014/millennials-prefer-cities-to-suburbssubways-to-driveways.html)

● Zipcar, “Zipcar annual millennial survey suggest 

being a ‘millennial’ is related to where you live, not 

where you were born,’ April 16, 2015. (http://www.

zipcar.com/press/releases/2015millennials)

● The White House, Council of Economic Advisors. 

2014. 15 Economic Facts about Millennials. 

October. (http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/

files/docs/millennials_report.pdf)

● Burbank, Jeremy, and Louise Keely. The Demand 

Institute. 2014. Millennials and Their Homes: Still 

Seeking the American Dream. September.(http://

www.demandinstitute.org/sites/default/files/bloguploads/millennials-and-their-homes-final.pdf)

● Nelson, Libby. Vox. “Why has student debt 

increased so much?” October 1, 2014.(http://www.

vox.com/cards/student-debt/why-has-studentdebt-increased-so-much)

● Interrante, Erica. Federal Highway Administration. 

The Next Generation of Travel: Research, Analysis 

and Scenario Development. (http://www.fhwa.dot.

gov/policy/otps/nextgen_finalreport.cfm)

● Fry, Richard “More Millennials Living With Family 

Despite Improved Job Market,” July 29, 2015, Pew 

Research Center, (http://www.pewsocialtrends.

org/2015/07/29/more-millennials-living-withfamily-despite-improved-job-market/?utm_

expid=53098246-2.Lly4CFSVQG2lphsgKopIg.0&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.

google.com%2F)

Figure. U.S. Labor Force Participation

● Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics 

from the Current Population Survey, http://data.

bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Older Americans

● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration, Summary 

of Travel Trends: 2009 National Household Travel 

Survey, 2011 (http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/stt.

pdf)

● Riffkin, Rebecca. Gallup, Inc. “Average U.S. 

Retirement Age Rises to 62.” April 2014.(http://

www.gallup.com/poll/168707/average-retirementage-rises.aspx)
HOW WE MOVE 26

● Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics 

from the Current Population Survey, http://data.bls.

gov/timeseries/LNS11300000.

● Toosi, Mitra, “Projections for the labor force to 

2050: a visual essay,” Monthly Labor Review, 

October 2012. (http://www.bls.gov/opub/

mlr/2012/10/art1full.pdf)

● (BOC) U.S. Census Bureau. Population Projection; 

“2014 National Population Projections: Summary 

Tables.” See “Table 1. Projections of the Population 

and Components of Change for the United 

States: 2015 to 2060.” (https://www.census.gov/

population/projections/data/national/2014/

summarytables.html) 

● Brault, Matthew W. Bureau of the Census. 2012. 

Americans With Disabilities: 2010. July. (http://www.

census.gov/prod/2012pubs/p70-131.pdf)

● DeGood, Kevin. Transportation for America. 

2011. Aging in Place, Stuck without Options: 

Fixing the Mobility Crisis Threatening the Baby 

Boom Generation. (http://t4america.org/docs/

SeniorsMobilityCrisis.pdf)

● Lynott, Jana and Carlos Figueiredo. AARP Public 

Policy Institute. 2011. How the Travel Patterns of 

Older Adults Are Changing: Highlights from the 

2009 National Household Travel Survey. April.

(http://assets.aarp.org/rgcenter/ppi/liv-com/fs218-

transportation.pdf)

● Mattson, Jeremy. Upper Great Plains Transportation 

Institute. North Dakota State University, 

Fargo. 2012. Travel Behavior and Mobility of 

Transportation-Disadvantaged Populations: 

Evidence from the National Household Travel 

Survey. December. (http://www.ugpti.org/pubs/pdf/

DP258.pdf)

● (GAO) Government Accountability Office. 2012. 

ADA Paratransit Services: Demand has Increased, 

but Little is Known about Compliance. November. 

(http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/650079.pdf)

Figure. Project Population Increase by 

Age Group

● (BOC) U.S. Census Bureau. Population Projection; 

“2014 National Population Projections: Summary 

Tables.” See “Table 1. Projections of the Population 

and Components of Change for the United States: 

2015 to 2060.”

Metropolitan Growth and Land Use

● Kneebone, Elizabeth. The Brookings Institution. 

2013. Job Sprawl Stalls: The Great Recession 

and Metropolitan Employment Location. April.

(http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/

files/reports/2013/04/18%20job%20sprawl%20

kneebone/srvy_jobsprawl.pdf) 

● Frey, William H. The Brookings Institution. 2012. 

Population Growth in Metro America since 1980: 

Putting the Volatile 2000s in Perspective. March.

(http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/

papers/2012/3/20%20population%20frey/0320_

population_frey.pdf)

● (AASHTO), American Association of State Highway 

and Transportation Officials, Commuting in 

America 2013: Brief 15. Commuting Flow Patterns. 

http://traveltrends.transportation.org/Documents/

B15_Commuting%20Flow%20Patterns_CA15-4_web.

pdf

● Frey, William H. The Brookings Institute. “Will 

This Be the Decade of Big City Growth?” May 

23, 2014. (http://www.brookings.edu/research/

opinions/2014/05/23-decade-of-big-city-growthfrey)

● Frey, William H. The Brookings Institute. “Migration 

to the suburbs and Sun Belt picks up. http://www.

brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/04/08-

migration-suburbs-sun-belt-frey

● Wilson, Steven G., et al. Bureau of the Census. 

2012. Patterns of Metropolitan and Micropolitan 

Population Change: 2000 to 2010. September. 

(https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/reports/

c2010sr-01.pdf)

● Kolko, Jed. Trulia Trends. “Where Americans Are 

Moving.” September 4, 2014. (http://www.trulia.

com/trends/2014/09/where-americans-are-moving)

Figure: U.S. Population: Urban, 

Suburban, and Rural

● Mather, Mark, Kelvin Pollard, and Linda A. Jacobsen. 

Bureau of the Census. 2011. First Results from 

the 2010 Census. July. (http://www.prb.org/pdf11/

reports-on-america-2010-census.pdf) (Projections 

based on 2000-2010 growth rates)

Regional Differences

● (BOC) Bureau of the Census. Population Estimates; 

“1980s: County Tables.” (http://www.census.gov/

popest/data/historical/1980s/county.html)
27 BEYOND TRAFFIC

● (BOC) Bureau of the Census. Population Estimates; 

“Historical Data: 2000s.” (http://www.census.gov/

popest/data/historical/2000s/index.html) 

● Butler, Margaret A. Department of Agriculture. 

1990. Rural-Urban Continuum Codes for Metro and 

Nonmetro Counties. April. (http://naldc.nal.usda.

gov/download/CAT10407597/PDF)

● (USDA) Department of Agriculture. Economic 

Research Service. “Recent Population Change.” April 

3, 2014. (http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/ruraleconomy-population/population-migration/recentpopulation-change.aspx)

● (USDA) Department of Agriculture. Economic 

Research Service. “Shifting Geography of Population 

Change.”. http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/ruraleconomy-population/population-migration/shiftinggeography-of-population-change.aspx

Innovations in How We Move

● Bowman, Marcus. IAC Transportation. “U.S. 

Commuting Statistics: Where are people going? 

How?” Online presentation. July 2008. (http://

www.slideshare.net/marcus.bowman.slides/uscommuting-statistical-analysis)

● Mateyka, Peter J., Melanie A. Rapino, and Liana 

Christin Landivar. Bureau of the Census. 2012. 

Home-Based Workers in the United States: 2010. 

October. (http://www.census.gov/hhes/commuting/

files/2010/P70-132.pdf)

● huSantos, Adella, et al. Federal Highway 

Administration. 2011. Summary of Travel Trends: 

2009 National Household Travel Survey. June. 

(http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/stt.pdf)

● Jones, Jeffrey M. Gallup, “In U.S. Telecommuting 

for Work Climbs to 37%” August 19, 2015. http://

www.gallup.com/poll/184649/telecommuting-workclimbs.aspx

● (BOC) U.S. Census Bureau News, Quarterly Retail 

E-Commerce Sales: 3rd Quarter 2015, November 

17, 2015, https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/

data/pdf/ec_current.pdf

● Walker Sands Communications. 2014. Reinventing 

Retail: What Businesses Need to Know for 2014.

● Shaheen, Susan and Adam Cohen, Innovative 

Mobility Carsharing Outlook: Summer 2015. 

Transportation Sustainability Research 

Center University of California, Berkeley. 

http://innovativemobility.org/wp-content/

uploads/2015/07/Summer-2015-CarsharingOutlook_Final-1.pdf

● Shaheen, Susan et al. “Shared Mobility: Definitions, 

Industry Developments, and Early Understanding,” 

November 2015. http://innovativemobility.org/

wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SharedMobility_

WhitePaper_FINAL.pdf 

● (NHTSA) National Highway Traffic Safety 

Administration, “2015 Crash Data Key Findings” 

November 2015. http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/

Pubs/812219.pdf

● (NHTSA) National Highway Traffic Safety 

Administration, “The Economic and Societal 

Impacts of Motor Vehicle Crashes, 2010 (Revised) 

May 2015, http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/

pubs/812013.pdf

● (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National 

Transportation Statistics, Table 2-1: Transportation 

Fatalities by Mode, http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/

sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_

transportation_statistics/index.html#chapter_2

● (NHTSA) National Highway Traffic Safety 

Administration, “Seat Belt Use in 2014 – Use Rates 

in the States and Territories” June 2015, http://

www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/812149.pdf

Figure: Percentage of Americans 

Workers Who Work from Home

● US. Census Bureau, Working at Home is on the 

Rise, https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/

pdf/home_based_workers_us_infographic.pdf

Figure: Fatalities Resulting from 

Motor Vehicle Crashes 

● (NHTSA) National Highway Traffic Safety 

Administration, Fatality Analysis Reporting System 

(FARS) Data, (https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/

index.aspx
HOW WE MOVE THINGS 28

HOW WE MOVE THINGS

Introduction 

Our freight system is a multimodal engine that 

we depend on to drive our economy. Trucks, 

trains, barges, and ports operate so efficiently 

at times most of us take it for granted. Yet, our 

coastal ports are modern wonders and critical 

gateways to a global economy. The twin ports of 

Long Beach and Los Angeles process hundreds of 

billions of dollars’ worth of imports and exports 

each year. Imports arrive on giant container ships 

and are transferred to trucks and trains which 

take the cargo to intermodal transfer centers 

and, from there, to warehouses and stores across 

the country. Freight trains move enormous 

volumes of grain from farms in the Midwest 

and Great Plains to barges on the Mississippi, 

Missouri, and Ohio Rivers that are transferred 

to ships in ports along the Gulf Coast, eventually 

feeding markets abroad. As we dine in St. Louis 

on a fresh fillet of Sockeye Salmon caught off 

Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula most of us don’t give a 

passing thought to the wonders of our modern 

air freight system.

Our nation’s ability to compete in global markets, 

and to meet the needs and expectations of 

consumers and industry depends on a robust 

multimodal freight transportation system. In an 

age of online shopping and next-day delivery, 

it can be easy to take for granted the policies, 

infrastructure, vehicles, trains and vessels, and 

workers that make all of this possible. But, today, 

our freight system is under serious strain. Our 

roads, railways, and some of the largest, busiest 

airports are becoming increasingly congested. 

Many of our ports and inland waterways suffer 

from lack of dredging and aging facilities. Faced 

with these challenges, there are opportunities to 

improve the performance of our freight system.

Today, freight patterns are changing at a global 

and local scale. International trade is increasing, 

global manufacturing centers are shifting and 

trade routes are changing. Firms are driving 

down logistics costs through just-in-time 

shipping. Online shopping is increasing demand 

for home delivery of consumer products. Ports 

worldwide are becoming increasingly automated. 

Intermodal freight shipped in containers by 

ships, trains, and trucks is increasing rapidly. 

Surging domestic energy production is straining 

infrastructure in oil production regions. In 

the next 30 years, changes in freight demand, 

shipping, manufacturing, logistics, technology, 

and energy production are poised to transform 

the economics of transportation yet again.

This chapter addresses the trends that will shape 

the economics of transportation and freight 

movement through 2045.

Population and Economic 

Growth

Our freight system moves approximately 63 

tons of goods per American each year. As our 

population grows and our economy expands, 

demand for freight will grow as well, straining an 

already challenged system. 

The economy is growing again. Despite the 

recent recession, the size of the American 
29 BEYOND TRAFFIC

FREIGHT MOVEMENT IS

MULTIMODAL About 50 million tons of freight 

move across our nation every day

2015 2045 

TRUCK

RAIL

WATER

AIR

(INCLUDING 

TRUCK-AIR)

TOTAL

11.5 billion +44% 16.5 billion 

1.7 billion +24% 2.1 billion

835 million +38% 1.2 billion

7 million +234% 24 million

18 billion +40% 25.3 billion 
HOW WE MOVE THINGS 30

Moving Memphis Forward: A Local Freight Economy

Memphis is a major freight and logistics hub. Five major railways converge in the 

area and railroads have invested heavily in intermodal facilities there. Memphis is 

also home to the second-largest cargo airport in the world, Memphis International 

Airport, and the FedEx Global Operations Control Center. Memphis is also home to 

hundreds of trucking companies and services barge traffic on the Mississippi River. 

Nearly 30 percent of regional employment is concentrated in the transportation and 

warehousing sector. A key regional challenge to accommodate additional growth in 

freight will be to improve intermodal connectivity and to address freight bottlenecks, 

while ensuring that the potential negative impacts of increased freight transportation 

on local residents are avoided or mitigated.

economy has more than doubled over the 

past 30 years, growing at an average annual 

rate of approximately 2.6 percent. At the same 

time, businesses have become more efficient 

in their use of transportation. The American 

economy has benefited from the deregulation 

of the trucking and rail industries, which has 

led to increases in productivity and innovations 

in supply-chain logistics. Over the long term, 

transportation and logistics costs have declined 

as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). 

By some calculations, logistics and transportation 

costs have declined from 16 percent of GDP to 

8 percent over the past 30 years. Logistics costs 

as a share of the American economy are some of 

the lowest in the world, comparing favorably to 

Europe and less than half those in China.

The American economy has become less 

freight-intensive as economic growth has 

outpaced the growth in freight activity. As we 

have shifted from a manufacturing economy 

towards a more service-oriented economy, and 

increased our production and consumption of 

higher-value, lower-weight products, such as 

pharmaceuticals and personal electronics, freight 

movements have declined in proportion to the 

total economy. Likewise, as our economy has 

become increasingly dependent on foreign trade, 

the nature and location of freight movements 

has shifted. More goods produced by American 

factories and farms are now bound for export 

and manufactured goods are increasingly 

imported from overseas through our ports.

As our economy grows, and even by conservative 

estimates it is expected to nearly double in size 

over the next 30 years, freight movement will 

increase as well, albeit at a slower rate. Truck 

and rail freight movements are expected to 

increase by more than 40 percent. Air freight is 

expected to triple in response to demand for 

the rapid movement of high-value merchandise, 

while multimodal shipments will likely double. 

Overall, the volume of imports and exports 

transported by our freight system are expected 

to more than double in the next 30 years. This 

will have implications for ports, which handle 

75 percent of America’s international trade by 

volume, and for intermodal carriers that move 

imports and exports between ports of entry and 

inland locations. 
31 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Increasing Congestion and 

Deteriorating Infrastructure 

Conditions

Growth in overall freight demand will put 

increased pressure on freight bottlenecks 

throughout the country. In 2014, more than 10 

million trucks moved more than 10 billion tons of 

freight across America’s highways. These trucks 

are major contributors to congestion on 4,500 of 

the busiest highway miles in the nation. 

Bottlenecks severely limit the performance and 

capacity of the highway system by delaying 

large numbers of truck freight shipments. 

Areas with the worst truck delays include major 

international trade gateways and hubs, such as 

Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago, and major 

distribution centers such as Atlanta, Charlotte, 

Dallas-Fort Worth, Denver, Columbus (Ohio), 

and Portland (Oregon). Border crossings are 

also bottlenecks. At two major Mexico border 

crossings, it takes trucks on average nearly an 

hour to enter the United States. 

Freight systems across all modes face capacity 

constraints and rising maintenance costs. After 

decades of consolidation, rail companies face 

rising infrastructure costs to resolve bottlenecks 

and to provide capacity to meet rising demand. 

Aging locks and dams are causing delays on 

inland waterways, and their maintenance costs 

are steadily increasing. 

Urban Freight Challenges

Our increasingly urbanized population poses 

challenges for “first mile” and “last mile” freight 

movements. Freight demand is expected to be 

concentrated in the large metropolitan areas 

where America’s population is growing the 

fastest. Congestion in several metropolitan 

population centers is already severe and could 

become more extreme. Increasing freight 

demand in these densely populated areas will 

complicate first mile movement of goods out of 

ports and the last mile movement of goods from 

freight hubs to their final destinations, which 

is often the least efficient portion of the supply 

chain for many consumer goods.

Freight-related traffic can also result in delays 

and congested road conditions for passenger 

and emergency response vehicles. For example, 

highway-rail grade crossings can lead to lengthy 

delays. Traffic to and from ports and other major 

freight centers can increase traffic on local roads 

and affect neighboring communities through 

noise and air pollution. These issues may become 
HOW WE MOVE THINGS 32

Addressing the Chicago Region’s Freight Rail Bottlenecks

Chicago is the busiest rail hub in the United States. Approximately one quarter of all 

U.S. rail traffic and nearly half of intermodal rail traffic passes through rail lines in or 

nearby Chicago. Six of the nation’s seven largest freight rail carriers operate in the 

region. It is also a hub for intercity rail and home to the most heavily used commuter 

rail services outside of New York. Amtrak and regional commuter rail service share the 

same tracks as freight trains leading to conflict and delays as demand for passenger 

and freight rail transportation has grown. Increasing rail traffic has also created delays 

and safety risks for vehicular traffic and pedestrians where railways cross roadways. 

Today a train can traverse the country from the ports in Los Angeles to Chicago 

in as little as 48 hours, but the same train may spend 30 hours just to travel 

across the Chicago region.

The Chicago Region Environmental and Transportation Efficiency Program (CREATE) 

is a $3.8 billion cooperative project involving U.S. DOT, Illinois DOT, Chicago DOT, 

six major North American freight rail carriers, and two passenger carriers to resolve 

rail conflicts and increase rail capacity, speed, and reliability in the Chicago area. It 

involves the separation of freight and passenger trains at six key junctions and the 

elimination of 25 road/rail grade crossings by creating overpasses or underpasses at 

rail intersections. Fifty miles of new track will link yards and create a second east-west 

route across the city, building redundancy into the overburdened system. Established 

more than a decade ago, the program has completed close to half of a planned 70 

projects throughout the region. So far the projects have helped to reduce the average 

time it takes to pass through the Chicago Rail Terminal from 48 hours to 32 hours.

more challenging as online shopping increases 

the portion of deliveries that are made directly to 

consumers’ homes. The challenge of delivering 

freight to dense urban areas will grow in 

importance as urban populations and deliveries 

increase. 

Freight and passenger traffic conflicts on our 

railways slows passenger travel and decreases 

the reliability of freight shipments. Amtrak and 

commuter trains frequently operate on privately 

owned and operated rail infrastructure and share 

tracks with freight trains. As the demand for both 

freight and passenger rail has grown in recent 

years these systems have come into conflict 

more frequently. Rail-highway crossings are 

another area where conflict between passenger 

and freight modes can lead to safety hazards and 

delays. Coordinated investments and information 

sharing between public and private entities are 

required to resolve these conflicts and separate 

passenger and freight traffic where feasible.

Rural Freight Transportation: 

A Critical Link

Many rural areas depend on a robust multimodal 

freight network to support their economy. 
33 BEYOND TRAFFIC

While the majority of freight in our country is 

delivered by trucks, railways are often essential 

for the affordable transport of heavy and bulky 

commodities such as lumber, wheat, coal, 

and heavy equipment. Inland waterways are 

also a critical feature of a robust rural freight 

transportation network. The first long distance 

system for moving goods and people, inland 

waterways remain an inexpensive alternative 

for moving commodities such as grain and 

iron ore. Ultimately, the role of freight in rural 

communities varies according to the primary 

economic sectors whether it is tourism, 

manufacturing, or agriculture. The nature of the 

agricultural product matters as well: heavy grains 

rely on barge and rail transport, while specialized 

or highly perishable fruits and vegetables may 

require air transport or overnight trucking to 

reach domestic and global markets.

Freight transport is critical to support rural 

industry as it transports the raw goods and 

products needed to support and promote growth 

in rural economies. Well-planned, multimodal 

freight systems provide opportunities for 

companies to locate and grow in rural regions 

due to efficient and reliable connections with 

major markets and ports. Intermodal facilities 

and logistics centers located in rural areas can 

benefit from lower costs than urban areas and 

may be strategically located at a key transfer 

point in a freight corridor. 

Rural freight transportation also poses challenges 

to policymakers. For example, the restructuring 

of the rail industry has led to the abandonment 

of many branch lines, cutting off service to 

many rural areas, leading to grain elevator 

consolidation along mainline and increased truck 

travel on rural roads to get wheat from farms to 

grain elevators. Heavy truck traffic along freight 

corridors passing through rural areas can also 

raise road maintenance costs without bringing 

direct economic benefits to the area. Such issues 

present challenges for rural regions, which have 

fewer resources and less flexibility to address 

such issues.

Increased demand for higher value goods is 

limiting the supply of transportation available 

for lower value bulk goods across all modes. The 

agriculture and natural-resource sectors tend 

to ship heavy products, such as grain and ore, 

in bulk, using barges, rail, and pipelines. These 

industries typically deal in high-weight, low-value 

commodity products, where transportation costs 

account for a higher proportion of the overall 

cost than is the case for manufactured goods. 

The relative efficiency of the American freight 

system helps these industries compete in export 

markets. For example, one dollar of final demand 

for agricultural products generally requires 

about 14 cents of transportation services, while 

manufactured goods and mining products 

require only between 8 and 9 cents. Higher 

freight costs for bulk goods could increase the 

prices that American consumers pay for goods, 

negatively impact local economies, particularly 

in rural areas, and reduce U.S. competitiveness 

when exporting these products abroad. In a 

ASSUMING NO CHANGES IN 

NETWORK CAPACITY, INCREASES IN 

TRUCK AND PASSENGER VEHICLE 

TRAFFIC ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND 

AREAS OF RECURRING PEAK-PERIOD 

CONGESTION TO 37 PERCENT 

OF THE NATIONAL HIGHWAY 

SYSTEM IN 2040 COMPARED 

WITH 11 PERCENT IN 2007. 
HOW WE MOVE THINGS 34

global economy, transportation costs can have 

a major impact on whether U.S. products are 

competitively priced. 

Safety Effects

The need to transport increasing amounts of 

freight to large urban areas could increase 

conflicts between freight and passenger traffic. 

Higher truck traffic and increasing movement of 

hazardous materials such as crude oil could raise 

safety risks; however, trends show impressive 

improvements in freight safety. 

Freight transportation is involved in 

approximately 13 percent of all transportation 

fatalities. In 2015, 4,062 people were killed 

and more than 111,000 people were injured 

in crashes involving large trucks. Large trucks 

are less likely to be involved in crashes than 

passenger vehicles, but crashes involving trucks 

are more likely to be fatal. 

In 2014, approximately 800 people died in rail, 

vessel, and pipeline accidents. While the amount 

of freight transportation activity has increased 

in recent decades, the number of fatalities has 

declined in nearly all modes. 

The rail safety record is improving—accidents 

and derailments are down by nearly 50 percent 

over the past decade and fatalities are down by 

13 percent. Accidents related to human error 

and track defects account for more than twothirds of all train accidents, and trespassing and 

highway-rail grade crossing incidents account 

for approximately 95 percent of all rail-related 

fatalities. The implementation of positive train 

control should contribute to increasing safety in 

railroad operations.

Transportation of oil by rail has increased 

dramatically since 2008, when less than 1 percent 

of oil was transported by rail. Today, more than 

10 percent of all crude oil is now shipped by rail. 

Even so, crude oil still accounts for less than 2 

percent of all car loads on major freight railroads. 

While derailments in general have decreased, 

derailments of tank cars highlight rising safety 

and environmental risks associated with 

increasing transportation of oil by rail. As more 

oil has moved by rail, accidents involving oil spills 

have increased. In 2013, more than one million 

gallons of oil were spilled due to derailments, 

more than the total oil spilled as a result of rail 

accidents over the past 35 years. 

To improve freight safety, railroads and 

trucking companies are also working closely 

with government and labor representatives to 

address operator fatigue issues, instill a culture 

of safety among operators and establish the 

use of performance-based risk management 

programs. In the long term, the introduction of 

connected vehicle technologies in trucks and 

automated vehicle technologies in both cars and 

trucks should lead to further improvements in 

safety as they come online. 

Environmental Impacts

Increasing freight activity in urban areas 

could also intensify the debate over land use 

and pollution. Without effective policies and 

regulations, growing freight movements will 

increase greenhouse gas emissions, and will 

affect human health in neighborhoods along 

freight corridors. Trucking, intermodal rail, 

waterborne transportation, and air cargo 

constitute large and growing sources of 

greenhouse gas emissions. Trucking accounts for 

about 9 percent of all highway miles traveled, but 

it is the source of 24 percent of all transportationsector greenhouse gas emissions. Freight 

on other modes accounts for an additional 7 
35 BEYOND TRAFFIC

The U.S. energy 

boom is placing 

unprecedented 

demand on our 

transportation 

system.

Crude oil production is 

UP

since 2008

74%

THE U.S. ENERGY

BOOM

52X the

9,500 

carloads of crude 

oil in 2008

Rail carried

493,146

carloads of crude oil 

in 2013
HOW WE MOVE THINGS 36

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 

Freight GHG Emssions as a 

Percentage of Transportation

Sector Emissions

Trucks

Ships Pipeline

Rail 

0%

percent of transportation sector greenhouse gas 

emissions. 

Trucking is the single largest contributor to 

freight-related air pollution nationally. Compared 

to cars, heavy trucks emit large amounts of air 

pollutants—including hydrocarbons, particulate 

matter, and nitrogen oxides. While trucks have 

made great strides in reducing emissions, 

the average diesel-fueled heavy truck emits 

50 percent more hydrocarbons per mile and 

12 times as many nitrogen oxides per mile as 

the average passenger car. These emissions 

can impact human health, particularly in 

neighborhoods adjacent to heavily trafficked 

freight corridors. 

Even as demand for freight movement increases, 

new vehicle emission standards, fuel sources, 

and energy-efficient intermodal transportation 

may lead to reductions in emissions of nitrogen 

oxide (NOx) and particulate matter. Substantial 

reductions in freight-related NOx emissions 

have been made since the U.S. Environmental 

Protection Agency required the use of ultralow 

sulfur diesel fuel in heavy-duty trucks and other 

diesel-powered highway vehicles beginning in 

2006. Truck-related NOx and PM-10 emissions 

are projected to decline by 56 and 66 percent, 

respectively, from 2012 to 2030. 

In 2014, NHTSA and EPA established heavyduty vehicle fuel efficiency standards that are 

expected to lead to 10–20 percent reductions 

in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) 

emissions by 2018. Continued improvements 

in engine technologies, including the use of 

new fuels (such as natural gas or hydrogen) 

and vehicles built from lighter materials, should 

reduce fuel consumption and emissions from all 

forms of freight vehicles. Similarly, new standards 

for cleaner and more fuel-efficient trucks, trains, 

vessels, and aircraft may reduce the pollution 

associated with carrying more freight.

Globalization

Over the past 30 years, international trade has 

increased at a much faster rate than overall 

economic growth. U.S. exports nearly doubled 

over the past decade. Total exports and imports 

of goods reached $4 trillion in 2014, accounting 

for 23 percent of U.S. GDP.

In the next 30 years, it is likely that globalization 

will continue to expand the supply of imports 

domestically and demand for exports globally. 

With 95 percent of the world’s consumers outside 

SINCE 1990, GREENHOUSE GAS 

EMISSIONS FROM TRUCKING 

HAVE INCREASED FIVE TIMES 

FASTER THAN EMISSIONS 

FROM PASSENGER TRAVEL.
37 BEYOND TRAFFIC BEYOND TRAFFIC

the United States, and with a shrinking share of 

global GDP due to the projected economic rise 

of China, India, and other emerging markets, 

international trade will grow in importance and 

put increasing pressure on our ports, border 

crossings, airports, and intermodal facilities to 

efficiently move imports and exports to market. 

In addition to changes in the volume of 

international freight, the origin and destination 

of freight trips may undergo significant changes. 

Maritime trade will remain the leading form of 

international freight transportation; however, 

there will be changes in the dominant maritime 

trade routes.

The recent widening and deepening of the 

Panama Canal will enable larger ocean-going 

vessels, known as “post-Panamax” ships, to pass 

through the Canal. Of the cargo passing through 

the Canal, 64 percent originates in or is destined 

for the United States, so the widening is expected 

to increase container ship freight volume loaded 

and unloaded at Gulf and East Coast ports. Canal 

improvements may also increase traffic at West 

Coast ports by enabling more efficient commerce 

between those ports and the Caribbean, as 

well as Atlantic ports in South America. It will 

also become increasingly important for ports 

to address congestion and equipment shortage 

challenges generated by bigger, new-generation 

container ships that offload larger volumes of 

containers in relatively shorter amounts of time.

The melting polar ice cap is opening Arctic 

shipping lanes. The Northern Sea Route, a 

shipping lane across the rim of Siberia connecting 

the Atlantic to the Pacific, first became passable 

in 2007. In 2013, a Danish cargo ship became 

the first to use the Northwest Passage, the sea 

route running from Alaska through the Canadian 

Arctic Archipelago as an alternative to the 

traditional voyage through the Panama Canal. 

INTERMODAL

FREIGHT

BUSINESS

CUSTOMER

PORT

INTERMODAL

FACILITY

TRUCK

Intermodal freight, one of the 

fastest growing sectors of the 

freight market, involves the 

transportation of goods in

containers using multiple modes 

of transportation.

RAIL
HOW WE MOVE THINGS 38
39 BEYOND TRAFFIC

While these seasonal routes are unlikely to rival 

the high-traffic Suez Canal and Panama Canal 

routes, they may provide a partial alternative to 

existing maritime routes. However, regular use 

of these new routes would require considerable 

investments in facilities to service and ensure 

safe passage of ships through these areas. 

Increasing imports and exports could lead 

to greater congestion at container ports and 

border crossings, resulting in delayed shipments, 

increased transportation costs, and intensifying 

pollution. Today, intermodal shipments are 

concentrated in the top 10 to 12 deep-water 

ports with the requisite infrastructure. Eightyfive percent of America’s imported and exported 

containerized freight flows through just 10 ports. 

There are also international shipments that 

do not involve U.S. importers or exporters, or 

domestic supply and demand, but still influence 

volume and congestion on our freight network. 

These shipments, commonly referred to as 

in-transit shipments, travel from one country 

through the U.S. destined for another country 

without ever entering into U.S. commerce. Some 

foreign shippers use our nation’s freight system 

of coastal ports, airports, pipelines, railways, 

and highways as a “land bridge.” However, the 

Northern Sea Route, expansion of the Panama 

Canal, and the continued trends in congestion 

and bottlenecks may lead to a decrease in intransit shipments through the U.S. in the future. 

The concentration of intermodal shipments 

in these ports makes our international freight 

system vulnerable to disruption. If security 

incidents were to lead to heightened inspection 

requirements, they could further slow goods 

movement at ports of entry. Labor disputes 

and natural disasters also have the potential to 

impact operations at key ports and disrupt the 

national economy. 

Port authorities are already investing billions 

to modernize their facilities and accommodate 

new-generation container ships by dredging 

harbors, raising bridges, and purchasing larger 

ship-to-shore cranes. Ports will need to continue 

to respond to increased demand for efficient 

intermodal freight movement with innovations 

that allow them to transfer cargo from ships to 

roads and rails more quickly. Finally, American 

ports may need to expand and become more 

efficient to compete with growing deep-water 

ports in neighboring and nearby countries. 

Freight Innovations

The freight industry is quietly going through 

a technological revolution as information and 

communications technologies are applied 

to optimize global supply chains. These 

technologies and business innovations are 

accelerating trends that have led to 30 years 

of declining logistics and transportation 

costs relative to GDP. Emerging supplychain optimization practices are resulting in 

firms placing a premium on the reliability of 

transportation services. 

Manufacturers and shippers are becoming 

better and better at using information 

technology to optimize performance. Today, the 

private sector uses new technologies to analyze 

demand and rapidly adjust supply chains. This is 

not a new practice, but enhanced data systems 

now provide manufacturers and distributors 

access to real-time information that allows them 

to adapt more quickly than ever before.

Private firms are also changing the way they 

package and ship products to make deliveries 

more efficient. Delivery consolidation through 

less-than-truckload deliveries combines 

multi-stop shipments into a single truck, and 

reduces the number of trucks on our highways. 
HOW WE MOVE THINGS 40

Similarly, firms are now using mobile technology 

to connect truck drivers to last-mile freight 

orders that can fill excess truck capacity. By 

matching supply and demand, these companies 

have the potential to improve the efficiency 

of independent operators. These efficiency 

innovations may also help to reduce the impact 

of growing demand on the capacity of our freight 

transportation system. 

Recent technological advances in data analysis 

systems, automatic vehicle and container 

identification systems, and satellite navigational 

systems will improve the efficiency of freight 

movement. These technologies will improve 

situational awareness, allowing real-time 

decentralized access to location and operational 

data. Understanding where a package is at any 

given time (even when it is in the air or on the 

road), and when it is due to arrive will allow for 

more efficient movement of freight across modes 

and through processing facilities. 

Advances in information and communications 

technologies will improve data collection and 

analysis capabilities of logistics firms and freight 

planners, enabling faster and more accurate 

analysis of freight routes, travel times, and 

infrastructure capacity. They will also improve 

safety by automating and expediting inspection 

processes, and by allowing for improved 

monitoring of security information.

Fully and partially automated trucks, ships, and 

planes, and automatic freight-transfer facilities 

may eventually transform the freight industry. 

Autonomous vehicles will not suddenly appear 

on our roads, but automated features that 

promise to improve the safety and efficiency of 

freight movement are already being introduced. 

On trucks, these include sensor systems that 

combine adaptive speed control, automatic 

braking, lane-departure warning systems, and 

vehicle-to-vehicle communications. By allowing 

sensors on one truck to communicate with 

sensors on another truck, partially automated 

trucks could soon travel more closely together 

to improve fuel efficiency, in a practice known as 

truck platooning or truck trains. 

Automation is already affecting ports. At major 

container ports around the world, the process 

of transferring containers from ships to docks, 

trucks, and trains is becoming highly automated, 

reducing reliance on human operators. Major 

American container ports will need to invest in 

automation to compete.

Automation will change the nature of work in 

the freight industry. Advanced automation will 

increase productivity in the freight industry 

and change the skills needed to work in 

freight. Technologies that affect driving, vehicle 

maintenance, warehousing, and loading will 

alter professional development needs, and 

employment levels—and will affect the average 

income for transportation workers. Managing 

and maintaining automated ports and fleets will 

require advanced mechanical and data analysis 

jobs, which demand higher skills and higher pay 

than traditional freight work. 

While some innovations in freight, such as 

automated driving, seem incredibly complex, 

some of the most transformative innovations 

are remarkably simple. The container—a 

large, standardized metal box used for cargo 

shipments—has become the essential unit 

of intermodal freight movement. Since its 

introduction as an alternative to conventional 

break-bulk cargo shipping in the 1960s, the 

container has influenced virtually all aspects of 

the freight transportation system, including the 

size of cargo ships, the design of container ships, 

the structure of freight railroads, and the scale of 

global trade. 
41 BEYOND TRAFFIC

THE NUMBER OF INTERMODAL 

RAIL SHIPMENTS INCREASED 

FROM 2 MILLION IN 1980 

TO 13.5 MILLION IN 2014.

The use of efficient, high-speed intermodal 

transfers in economically large units between 

ships, rail cars, truck chassis, and barges has 

led to profound changes in the transportation 

sector. By reducing handling time, labor 

costs, and packing costs, and also reducing 

damage and theft during transport, container 

transportation has facilitated economies of 

scale and improvements in handling speed 

and throughput, particularly for valuable nonbulk commodities. As a result of container use, 

intermodal freight movement has expanded 

dramatically since the 1980s, particularly for 

shipments over 2,000 miles. 

The advent of containerization and the expansion 

of international trade has put a premium on 

seamless intermodal freight movements. The 

efficiency of our freight system now depends 

on fast and effective transfers of containers 

between modes. Intermodal facilities where 

cargo is stored, assembled, and transferred have 

become increasingly important for the efficient 

movement of freight. Many of the operational 

bottlenecks that cause delays and raise the costs 

of moving freight occur at or around intermodal 

transfer points, such as ports, rail facilities, and 

distribution centers. 

Freight planners and policymakers will 

increasingly look to intermodal logistics hubs 

to improve the efficiency of transfers between 

multiple freight modes and reduce the negative 

impacts of freight on local communities. 

Increased use of practices such as doublestacking of containers on railway cars will also 

increase the capacity and efficiency of the freight 

system. 

Workforce Challenges

The transportation industry employs nearly 5 

million people and nearly a half million more jobs 

in transportation could be created over the next 

decade. These include a broad range of jobs such 

as truck and bus drivers, train operators, pilots, 

stevedores, mechanics, engineers, analysts, 

and planners. These are good jobs. A majority 

of the top transportation jobs pay above the 

median wage and many are union jobs with 

good benefits that don’t require an advanced 

education. Yet changes to the transportation 

workforce and in the work of transportation 

itself present a growing challenge for the freight 

industry and transportation as a whole. 

Several broad trends are affecting all aspects of 

this workforce. Nearly half of the transportation 

workforce could become eligible to retire in the 

next 10 years, resulting in the loss of valuable 

workers, skills, and institutional knowledge. For 

example, more than a third of transit workers 

and nearly a third of railroad workers are over 

55 years old. Growing demand for transportation 

coupled with an expected wave of retirements 

will result in more than 4 million job openings for 

workers across the transportation sector over the 

next decade. 

As a generation of transportation workers passes 

into retirement, transportation employers need 

to find ways to attract and retain a younger 

generation and more diverse cohort of workers 

in an evolving and competitive economy.

Currently, only one in five workers in the 

transportation industry are women. To ensure a 
HOW WE MOVE THINGS 42

qualified transportation workforce in the coming 

decades the transportation industry as a whole 

will need to develop strategies to recruit and 

develop female employees. New technologies are 

also changing the nature of transportation work. 

The increasing use of information technology 

and computerized equipment necessitate new, 

more advanced skill sets, in many transportation 

industry jobs. These challenges are already 

making it difficult for many employers in the 

transportation industry to fill open positions and 

address gaps in skills.

Increasing Domestic Energy 

Production 

America is experiencing an energy renaissance. 

This current boom is a result of advances in 

technology that have opened up reserves of 

natural gas and shale oil previously unreachable 

at economically competitive rates. While shale 

oil has been extracted for over a century, new 

technologies and changes in global energy 

markets have made the recovery of shale oil, 

and gas production, significantly more profitable 

in recent years. As a result, domestic oil and 

gas production has increased rapidly, creating 

issues for the safe and efficient transportation of 

energy from production regions to refineries and 

consumer markets. 

Over the past three years, domestic oil 

production has increased by nearly 60 percent. 

We now produce more than 280 million barrels 

of oil a month, the highest level in more than 

30 years. Domestic shale gas production has 

increased from 2 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 13 

trillion cubic feet in 2014—enough natural gas 

to heat nearly 200 million homes each year. As 

a result of this boom, net imports of natural gas 

and oil have been falling since 2007. The Energy 

Information Administration has predicted that 

we will become a net exporter of natural gas 

before 2017. That said, future developments, 

such as fluctuations in global fuel prices or the 

development of affordable alternative fuels could 

alter current oil and gas production trends.

High-value energy products already account 

for more than 30 percent of the domestic tonmiles of freight moved each year. Should U.S. 

energy production continue to grow, it will have 

profound implications for our transportation 

system. The natural gas and oil boom has created 

jobs in drilling, pipelines, and construction, and 

is attracting many new people to production 

regions. Simultaneously, these regions are 

transporting unprecedented levels of natural 

gas and oil to distribution centers around the 

country. As a result, demand for transportation in 

energy production regions has grown. Industrial 

traffic—heavy trucks, and drilling and other 

production equipment—is overwhelming many 

roads in states such as Pennsylvania, West 

Virginia, Ohio, and North Dakota. 

The shifting geography of petroleum 

production is increasing safety risks and raising 

transportation and infrastructure maintenance 

costs. The current pipeline network, regulated by 

the U.S. DOT’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials 

Safety Administration, is oriented toward imports 

arriving at Gulf Coast refineries and does not 

connect the East and West Coasts to the newer 

domestic oil supplies. 

IN 2013, THE UNITED STATES 

SURPASSED SAUDI ARABIA 

TO BECOME THE LARGEST 

OIL-PRODUCING COUNTRY 

IN THE WORLD.
43 BEYOND TRAFFIC

The domestic production boom will increase 

demand for infrastructure capacity to move oil 

and gas. Facilities will need to be reoriented to 

accommodate gas and oil supply and demand. 

Federal and state agencies will need to address 

new challenges related to human safety and 

risks to the natural environment resulting from 

the transportation of natural gas and petroleum. 

Lower fuel prices will lead the trucking, rail, 

and transit industries to increase the use of 

compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquid natural 

gas (LNG) as affordable alternatives to diesel. 

Policy Implications

Freight transportation is quietly undergoing a 

transformation. Our economy is becoming ever 

more globalized, with cargo increasingly moving 

across borders and between modes. This trend 

has increased the importance of international 

gateways and intermodal connections for 

facilitating the efficient movement of imports 

and exports. Innovations in supply-chain logistics 

and information technologies are raising the 

expectations of consumers and firms for fast, 

reliable, flexible, and efficient delivery of goods 

and resources. Automation has the potential 

to revolutionize how ports, trains, vessels, and 

trucks operate. Domestic energy production 

has increased, leading to increased demand for 

infrastructure to safely and efficiently transport 

energy products to where they are needed. 

As global economic competition increases and 

trade patterns change, we will need to decide 

how best to invest limited public resources in 

freight capacity. We will need to consider what 

infrastructure capacity is needed and where, 

and how to make the best use of existing 

capacity while considering the public benefits 

these investments offer. We will also need to 

consider what role government should play in 

ensuring that American workers have the skills 

and information needed to ensure the most 

efficient use of existing capacity and emerging 

technologies. Policymakers will also need to 
HOW WE MOVE THINGS 44

work with the private sector when appropriate 

and mutually beneficial, to expand capacity 

and improving the efficient use of our freight 

infrastructure.

We will also need to consider how local policies, 

constraints, and investments may affect the 

performance of regional and national networks. 

Locally driven decisions about freight capacity 

can create regional competition that leads to 

inefficient national investments. The decisionmaking structure for critical freight networks 

varies from locale to locale, and the authority 

is often held by a mixture of public and private, 

state, local, and regional entities, which may 

represent one or many modes of freight 

movement. The Alameda Corridor, a 20-mile 

grade-separated rail corridor that runs directly to 

the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to the 

rail mainlines near downtown Los Angeles, took 

nearly 20 years of coordinated efforts among 

public and private stakeholders across the region 

to become a reality. Completed in 2002, the 

project reduced travel times along the corridor 

from 4 hours to 30 minutes.

Many of the worst freight bottlenecks are located 

on the roads surrounding major urban areas and 

near coastal container ports and large intermodal 

terminals, where freight traffic and passenger 

traffic compete for capacity. As the population 

and economies of urban areas grow, demand for 

freight on already-congested access gateways 

to ports, road, rail, and aviation infrastructure 

is likely to increase. How can regions plan for 

increasing traffic and resolve conflicts that may 

arise between the transportation demands 

for freight, passengers, businesses, and local 

residents?

As we have seen with efforts to accommodate 

increasing domestic energy production, meeting 

the transportation needs of growing regional 

economies is not without challenges and 

controversy. There are serious tradeoffs that 

need to be considered, especially when societal 

goals conflict. Policymakers have a significant 

role to play in assessing those tradeoffs to set 

policies and regulatory standards that effectively 

address issues of economic development, public 

safety, and environmental sustainability. 

Public agencies will need to develop policies 

and regulations that address those risks and 

improve the resilience of our freight system. 

Policy options for improving the efficiency of our 

freight transportation system and mitigating the 

negative impacts of freight movements include:

3⁄4 Establishing strategic freight funding 

programs that target freight bottlenecks.

3⁄4 Encouraging private investment in freight 

infrastructure.

3⁄4 Adopting policies that shift freight demand 

to safer, more environmentally sustainable 

modes.

3⁄4 Using congestion pricing to manage demand.

3⁄4 Investing in ports and intermodal facilities to 

make intermodal shipping more efficient.

3⁄4 Incorporating freight planning into 

transportation planning and regional 

economic development decisions.

3⁄4 Incentivizing the adoption of alternative-fuel 

and electric vehicles by freight companies. 

3⁄4 Supporting research into automation 

technologies.

3⁄4 Investing in infrastructure to support the safe 

and efficient movement of energy supplies.

These policy options are explored in further 

depth in the conclusion of this report. 
45 BEYOND TRAFFIC

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HOW WE MOVE THINGS 46

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(https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/gallery/

Geography%20of%20Transport%20Systems_1ed.

pdf)

● “The Humble Hero.” The Economist. May 18, 2013.

(http://www.economist.com/news/finance-andeconomics/21578041-containers-have-been-moreimportant-globalisation-freer-trade-humble)
47 BEYOND TRAFFIC

● Sulbaran, Tulio, and MD Sarder. American Society 

for Engineering Education, Southeast Section 

Conference. 2013. Logistical Impact of Intermodal 

Facilities. April. (http://se.asee.org/proceedings/

ASEE2013/Papers2013/183.PDF)

Increasing Domestic Energy 

Production

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. 2014. 

International Energy Statistics; “Total Oil Supply 

Data.” (http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/

IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=53&aid=1)

● (DOE) Department of Energy. “Producing Natural 

Gas from Shale.” January 26, 2012. (http://energy.

gov/articles/producing-natural-gas-shale) 

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. Natural 

Gas; “Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals and 

Production.” (http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_

sum_dcu_nus_a.htm) 

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. 2013. 

Natural Gas Annual 2013. (http://www.eia.gov/

naturalgas/annual/pdf/nga13.pdf) 

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. 2014. 

Annual Energy Outlook 2014. April. (http://www.eia.

gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2014).pdf)

● (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National 

Transportation Statistics; “Table 1-59.” (http://

www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/

publications/national_transportation_statistics/

html/table_01_59.html) 

● Begos, Kevin and Jonathan Fahey. Associated Press. 

“Deadly Side Effect to Fracking Boom.” May 5, 2014.

(http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ap-impact-deadlyside-effect-fracking-boom-0)

● Curtis, Trisha, et al. Oil & Gas Journal. “Lagging 

pipelines create U.S. gulf light sweet crude glut.” 

March 3, 2014. (http://eprinc.org/wp-content/

uploads/2014/03/OGJ-EPRINC-Article.pdf)

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. Petroleum 

& Other Liquids; “Crude Oil Production.” (http://

www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_m.

htm)

Figure: Domestic Crude Oil Refinery 

Deliveries by Non-Pipeline Mode

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. Petroleum 

& Other Liquids. “Refinery Receipts of Crude Oil by 

Method of Transportation.” (https://www.eia.gov/

dnav/pet/pet_pnp_caprec_dcu_nus_a.htm
HOW WE ADAPT 48

HOW WE ADAPT

Introduction 

Our climate is changing, producing harsher 

storms, rising sea levels, and higher average 

temperatures. In 2014, we experienced the 

warmest year on record. Droughts and floods 

have become more frequent, and more 

damaging. The scientific consensus is that these 

changes are largely the result of human activities 

that have emitted carbon dioxide and other heattrapping gases into the atmosphere.

These changes have costs and consequences—

for our economy, our public health, and our 

infrastructure. While it is difficult to definitively 

connect climate change to particular weather 

events, the trends are disturbing. Since 1980, the 

frequency of billion-dollar natural disasters has 

increased by approximately 5 percent per year, 

controlling for inflation. In 2012 alone, weatherrelated disasters in the United States were 

estimated to have cost more than $120 billion. In 

2014, at least $2 billion in crops and 17,000 jobs 

were lost to the ongoing California drought—the 

worst drought in more than a century. 

Our transportation facilities—our roads, bridges, 

tunnels, rails, airports, waterways, and ports—

are uniquely vulnerable to damage caused by 

severe storms, rising sea levels, drought, and 

extremes of temperature. These vulnerabilities 

have become more pronounced as the frequency 

of these events increases. For example, in 2012, 

Hurricane Sandy caused $700 million in damage 

to the rail infrastructure in four century-old 

tunnels under New York City, forcing repairs that 

will disrupt service and severely inconvenience 

riders for years to come. 

In 2014, transportation sources directly 

accounted for 26 percent of total U.S. 

greenhouse gas emissions. Next to the 

generation of electricity, which contributes 30 

percent of greenhouse gases, the transportation 

sector is the second largest source in the United 

States. Industrial emissions related to the 

manufacture of transportation vehicles and the 

construction of infrastructure add to the total 

contribution of the transportation sector to 

emissions. 

However, the transportation sector is making 

major strides: with new fuels, new vehicles, and 

new policies that can help to reduce emissions. 

New types of fuels that promise to dramatically 

reduce emissions for automobiles, trains, planes, 

and vessels are emerging, sales of plug-in 

electric and hybrid vehicles are increasing, and 

the fuel efficiency of new vehicles is improving. 

The federal government recently issued joint 

fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions 

standards for cars and light trucks, and fuel 

economy standards were set for medium and 

heavy trucks for the first time ever. These 

regulations are expected to increase the fuel 

efficiency of vehicles by approximately 50 

percent over the next decade.

New regulations, policies, incentives, and market 

forces to reduce emissions may all be needed, 

as will increased research and development of 

alternative fuels and vehicle types. Policymakers 
49 BEYOND TRAFFIC

and planners may also need to find ways to 

encourage less energy-intensive land-use 

patterns and transportation choices. 

The next generation of Americans could decide 

to make significantly different lifestyle choices 

than do current Americans—for reasons of 

cost or preference—that substantially reduce 

their environmental footprint. However, it is 

unlikely that just one measure—technological 

advances, market forces, or the altruism of future 

generations—will, by itself, solve the problem of 

climate change; we will have to combine multiple 

measures to make progress.

Introducing new policies might be difficult. But 

they may be necessary to blunt the expected 

long-term economic, social, and environmental 

consequences of climate change. This chapter 

will explore the effects of climate change on the 

transportation system and the efforts already 

underway to combat it.

Impacts of Climate Change

Human activities contribute to climate change by 

adding carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping 

gases to the atmosphere. When we burn fuel—

gasoline to power our car, oil to heat our home, 

coal to produce electricity—we produce carbon 

emissions. These emissions cause the surface 

temperature of the Earth to rise and increase 

the acidity of the oceans, changing the weather, 

threatening species, and jeopardizing crops. 

Impacts from sea-level rise and storm surge, 

extreme weather events, higher temperatures 

and heat waves, precipitation changes, Arctic 

warming, and other climatic conditions are 

affecting the reliability and capacity of the U.S. 

transportation system in many ways. Sea-level 

rise, coupled with storm surge, will continue to 

increase the risk of major coastal impacts on 

transportation infrastructure, including both 

temporary and permanent flooding of airports, 

ports and harbors, roads, rail lines, tunnels, and 

bridges. 

Extreme weather events currently disrupt 

transportation networks in all areas of the 

country; projections indicate that such 

disruptions will increase. Each major weather 

event brings with it disruption and delay across 

our surface, air, and marine transportation 

systems. Transportation agencies can be forced 

to scramble and improvise in order to patch and 

repair after big storms, often with enormous 

financial and productivity losses, as well as 

tremendous inconvenience for the average 

commuter. 

Higher Temperatures

Earth’s average temperature has risen by 1.3 

to 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 – 1 Celsius) since 

1880. Much of this change has occurred in recent 

decades. By 2045, the United States will likely 

experience average temperatures that are 1–3 

degrees Fahrenheit higher than today’s averages. 

This may not sound like a significant increase, but 

the negative consequences of this change would 

be substantial and wide reaching. The frequency 

of heat waves will increase. Northern areas are 

expected to grow wetter, while southern and 

western areas are expected to become drier. 

Sea levels will rise due to the loss of glaciers and 

polar ice. 

Higher average temperatures will raise 

maintenance costs across all modes. High 

temperatures accelerate the deterioration of 

pavement on roads and runways, and cause 

failures of railroad tracks. Tires are more 

prone to blowouts in conditions of high heat, 

and transportation costs will increase as more 

refrigeration is needed for perishable items. 

Higher temperatures would significantly 
HOW WE ADAPT 50
51 BEYOND TRAFFIC

increase the frequency of restrictions on aviation 

operations, particularly at high altitude airports. 

Extreme heat also impairs the operation of 

aircraft. In 2013, more than a dozen commercial 

flights from Phoenix were canceled due to 

extreme heat.

Extreme temperatures cause rail tracks to buckle, 

which could result in dangerous and costly 

derailments, and could increase the costs of rail 

maintenance, causing delays during extreme 

heat. Track buckling and other problems blamed 

on extreme heat caused more than $77 million 

in damage to American railroads between 2010 

and 2013. Extreme heat could also increase 

evaporation, lowering water levels in the Great 

Lakes and our nation’s waterways, reducing 

navigability draft for vessels, and forcing them 

to carry less cargo, resulting in increased freight 

costs.

Severe Weather and 

Sea-Level Rise 

Climate change could make extreme weather, 

such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, and 

hurricanes, more frequent and more intense, 

increasing damage to infrastructure and reducing 

the reliability of our transportation system. Major 

storms have become more common across 

the globe since the early 1950s, including more 

intense winter storms that track northward and 

more damaging hurricanes and tropical storms. 

By 2045, projections indicate that global sea 

levels will rise another six inches to one foot 

over current levels. Sea-level rise, coupled with 

a higher frequency of severe weather, will make 

low-lying infrastructure increasingly vulnerable to 

flooding from storm surges, and may impede the 

clearance of vessels under bridges that were not 

designed for higher sea levels. 

Much of our transportation infrastructure is 

only designed to withstand a 100-year storm—a 

storm of such severity that it only has a 1 

percent chance of occurring annually. However, 

climate change is making such storms more 

likely and more intense. By 2045, storms that 

exceed current design standards will happen 

more frequently, leading to frequent weatherrelated outages and repairs. Flooding caused by 

rising sea levels and storms could force tunnels, 

subway stations, low-lying roads, rail lines, and 

marine cargo facilities to be relocated or even 

abandoned. 

Governments may need to divert funds to 

relocating infrastructure and completing 

weather-related repairs—potentially affecting the 

public with closures, detours, and disruptions. 

Increasing the resiliency of our vulnerable 

infrastructure may result in higher infrastructure 

costs, but those costs will likely be less than costs 

of repair and recovery from severe weather 

events. Congress provided $12.4 billion in 

transportation funding for recovery from Super 

Storm Sandy, significantly more than what 

transportation agencies in New York spend on all 

transportation capital improvements across the 

state in a given year. 

Sixty thousand miles of coastal roads in America 

are exposed to flooding from heavy rain and 

storm surges. Low-lying road infrastructure is 

particularly vulnerable to storm surges. During 

Hurricane Katrina in 2005, a 27-foot storm 

surge occurred along the Bay St. Louis coast in 

Mississippi, washing out roads, bridges, railroad 

tracks—and entire neighborhoods. 

Even relatively small sea-level changes will 

increase the vulnerability of infrastructure, 

particularly in areas that are unaccustomed 

to flooding from storm surges. For example, 

infrastructure in San Francisco and New York 
HOW WE ADAPT 52

City may be more susceptible to damage from 

storm surges than cities in the Gulf Coast, 

where hurricanes occur more frequently and 

infrastructure has been designed to be resilient 

to the impacts of these storms. 

Bridges, because they often cross or are near 

bodies of water, are vulnerable to storm surges. 

Powerful waves stress super- and sub-structures, 

causing bridge spans to shift or even be 

unseated. Storm surges may also cause debris, 

vehicles, and buildings to collide with bridges and 

marine facilities. 

Low-lying coastal and tidal-river airports are likely 

to suffer infrastructure damage from increasingly 

intense storms and sea-level rise, both of which 

can contribute to greater storm surge. Thirteen 

of the 47 largest airports in America are within 

reach of moderate-to-high storm surges, 

including all three major New York-area airports. 

Serving a region of 1.3 million people, Louis 

Armstrong International Airport in New Orleans 

is the lowest-lying airport in America, at 1.7 feet 

below sea level. Increased frequency of severe 

weather will also decrease the overall reliability 

of air travel as airline operations are disrupted 

and delays ripple throughout our entire aviation 

system.

Like airports, rail yards are often located in 

low-lying areas near water. The proximity of rail 

infrastructure and rolling stock to shorelines 

makes them vulnerable to damage during and 

after intense storms. Hurricane Katrina caused 

nearly $90 million in damage to rail assets 

throughout the affected area, and Amtrak 

service east of New Orleans into Florida remains 

suspended almost 10 years later. In Vermont in 

2011, Tropical Storm Irene damaged more than 

200 miles of rail and six rail bridges, with total 

damage of more than $20 million. 

Ports are also vulnerable to storm surges. 

Severe storms and storm surges can damage 

infrastructure, equipment, and goods temporarily 

stored at ports, and can disrupt fuel supplies; this 

threat is particularly acute in areas in the Gulf 

and along the East Coast, where intense storms 

will likely become more common by 2045. In fact, 

seven of the 10 largest ports (by freight tonnage) 

are located on the Gulf Coast. 

Storms can also create movements in sediment 

and debris that reduce the navigability of 

shipping channels. The Mississippi River-Gulf 

Outlet was closed to commercial shipping after 

its depth fell to 22 feet—restricting access for 

large vessels—following Hurricane Katrina. A 

two-foot rise in sea level could force a change 

in shipping routes, and might prompt huge new 

investments in modifying infrastructure to allow 

for vessel clearance. As an example, the Bayonne 

Bridge, which connects New Jersey with Staten 

Island, is currently being modified to provide 

additional clearance for the largest container 

ships at an estimated cost of $1 billion. 

The likelihood of increased flooding and stormrelated power outages may impact energy 

transported by pipeline. Pipelines are generally 

constructed inland such that coastal flooding 

will not likely impact safety or the environment. 

However, pipelines located offshore and around 

the Gulf Coast could be subject to great stresses, 

making failure more likely.

A TWO-FOOT RISE IN SEA LEVEL 

COULD SUBMERGE MORE THAN 

600 MILES OF TRACK ALONG THE 

EAST COAST, AND SOME OF THE 

BUSIEST AIRPORTS IN AMERICA.
53 BEYOND TRAFFIC

AIRPORT SEA

LEVELS Ft. Lauderdale San Francisco Oakland

NYC-LaGuardia

Miami

Philadelphia

Newark

DC-Reagan

NYC-JFK

Tampa

U.S. Airport 

Elevations

New Orleans

SEA LEVEL IS PROJECTED TO 

RISE UP TO 1 FOOT (2045)

SEA LEVEL IS PROJECTED TO 

RISE UP TO 4 FEET (2100)

Sea level rise makes all of

these airports vulnerable to 

storm surges like those 

experienced during 

Superstorm Sandy, which 

exceeded 7 feet.

Rising Sea Levels 

Will Disrupt

Transportation 

13 ft

0 ft

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

The burden of weather-related damage is borne 

mostly in the immediate area of a storm, but the 

effects are felt widely, as shipping and personal 

travel alike are disrupted. Given the connected 

nature of freight movement, delays in affected 

areas can have wide-reaching effects. Substantial 

public money has been dedicated to cleaning 

up damage from recent major storms, and 

such costs are expected to rise as the effects 

of climate change become more pronounced. 

Creating ‘resilient’ infrastructure is increasingly 

important in order to allow our transportation 

system to withstand and recover from weather 

events.

Reducing Transportation 

Emissions

The effects of climate change on our 

transportation infrastructure are being felt today. 

We know that carbon emissions are a major 

cause of climate change, and that transportation 

is a major contributor to carbon emissions 

through the burning of petroleum-based fuels. 

So how is the transportation sector reducing 

carbon emissions?

Almost all (95 percent) of the world’s 

transportation energy comes from petroleumbased fuels, largely gasoline and diesel, 

which are a major source of greenhouse gas 

emissions. Globally, transportation accounts 

for approximately 14 percent of all greenhouse 

gas emissions. In the United States, where per 

capita levels of driving are higher than in other 

countries, transportation directly accounts for 27 

percent of all such emissions. 

In 2012, American automobiles accounted for 

10 percent of all the oil consumed in the world, 

but their global share is falling over time as oil 

consumption and automobile use increases in 

emerging markets, such as China and India. 
HOW WE ADAPT TRENDS 54

U.S. DOT Funding Builds Resiliency in the Wake of Superstorm 

Sandy

In the coming decades, climate change will result in more frequent severe weather. 

At the same time, sea-level rise is already increasing the vulnerability of low-lying 

infrastructure to flooding from storm surges. Superstorm Sandy, for example, 

produced massive flooding that forced transportation agencies to suspend more than 

40 percent of all transit service in America, primarily in the New York-New Jersey region. 

Since Superstorm Sandy, America has made great progress in rebuilding its damaged 

transportation assets, particularly transit systems. However, to help prepare for the 

continued impacts of climate change and the potential for stronger storms, the U.S. 

DOT recently awarded $3.59 billion in grants to 40 transit projects in areas affected by 

Superstorm Sandy. These projects include resilience work such as sealing street-level 

vents and manholes; protecting underground pump rooms; and shielding underground 

facilities that deliver power throughout the subway system. While many of these 

projects will be invisible to riders, they will help the New York-New Jersey region 

withstand more frequent and severe storms. In the long term, these proactive projects 

will also save taxpayer dollars in repairs to transit services if and when another storm 

hits. 

Although these disaster relief funds are concentrated in the Northeast, the wideranging impacts of Superstorm Sandy demonstrate the tremendous scale of the 

transportation investment needed nationwide. Beyond transit, severe flooding and 

storm damage also threaten highways, tunnels, rail lines, airports, and other critical 

assets across the nation. In order to improve the resilience of the transportation 

system, agencies must not only recover from the last storm, but also rebuild to 

withstand the next one.

Fuel Efficiency

Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) 

standards have had a significant positive impact 

on the fuel efficiency of light-duty vehicles. First 

enacted by Congress in 1975, CAFE standards 

reduce energy consumption by increasing the 

fuel economy of cars and light trucks. When 

first enacted, these standards raised the fuel 

economy of light-duty vehicles significantly, but 

the standards remained unchanged for nearly 25 

years. The standards were updated in 2011 and 

they are now scheduled to rise from 32.7 miles 

per gallon in 2012 to the equivalent of 54.5 miles 

per gallon by 2025. 

The automobile industry has already taken steps 

to meet the new CAFE standards earlier than 

required by the regulations. Approximately 28 

percent of light-duty vehicles sold in 2013 met 

the most stringent greenhouse gas targets for 

2016, accelerating efforts to reduce carbon 
55 BEYOND TRAFFIC

emissions and the pace of climate change. Of 

course, these standards apply to new vehicles 

only, so the effect on the average emissions of 

all cars on the road is a function of the number 

of new cars on the road. At current rates of 

sales, turnover of the U.S. fleet would take 

approximately 14 years.

Heavy trucks account for 22 percent of 

transportation greenhouse gas emissions and 

diesel-related emissions have more than doubled 

over the past 30 years. This is more than three 

times the rate of increase for cars and light 

trucks. Increases in truck emissions outpaced 

increases in truck ton-miles, meaning that truck 

freight movement actually became less energy 

efficient. This occurred despite improvements in 

engine efficiency, trailer aerodynamics, and truck 

tires. Operational factors, such as the growth 

in small, just-in-time shipments, and increasing 

congestion and idling, might explain some of the 

loss in efficiency.

Greenhouse gas and fuel efficiency standards 

were expanded to cover medium- and heavyduty trucks in 2012. By 2018, new combination 

trucks will be required to achieve a 20-percent 

reduction in fuel consumption and greenhouse 

gas emissions. In August 2016, NHTSA and the 

EPA extended and tightened standards for 

medium- and heavy-duty trucks model years to 

the year 2027.
HOW WE ADAPT 56

Transportation modes other than vehicles—

including rail, aviation, pipeline, and maritime—

make up the remaining 17 percent of 

transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions. 

Aviation activities accounted for 8 percent of 

domestic transportation-related greenhouse gas 

emissions. 

Commercial airlines achieved efficiencies by 

improving the fuel economy of their fleet and 

increasing the number of passengers per flight. 

The FAA is working with industry to accelerate 

the development and commercial deployment 

of environmentally promising new aircraft and 

engine technologies. Improvements to the design 

of aircraft and aircraft engines will likely continue 

to improve their energy efficiency. When fully 

implemented, NextGen will allow planes to fly 

more direct routes, further improving efficiency 

and reducing emissions. 

Other modes have also reduced emissions. 

Stricter regulatory requirements have been 

enacted for maritime emissions. Marine vessels 

and rail locomotives have adopted more energy 

efficient engines and designs. The energy 

efficiency of trains has increased by 50 percent 

since 1980 and will likely continue to increase 

as railroads put more efficient locomotives into 

service and make operational improvements. 

Curbing emissions of methane is critical to our 

overall effort to address global climate change. 

Methane currently accounts for roughly 9 

percent of domestic greenhouse gas emissions 

and has a global warming potential that is nearly 

25 times greater than carbon dioxide. Methane 

is a primary component of natural gas and 

leaks in natural gas distribution pipelines are a 

significant source of methane emissions. These 

leaks are most likely to occur from damage and 

corrosion of older pipelines made from cast iron 

and unprotected steel. Currently, there are more 

than 90,000 miles of gas distribution mains made 

from these materials. Improving the monitoring 

of methane emissions and replacing aging and 

leaking pipes is critical to reducing methane 

emissions from natural gas pipelines.

Over the next 30 years, higher regulatory 

standards are expected to spur continued 

improvements in fuel efficiency for cars and 

trucks. In recent years, high fuel prices have given 

individuals and private firms strong incentives to 

purchase vehicles with better fuel economy. But 

if gas prices decline in the coming decades, will 

regulatory standards need to be strengthened? 

Additional government policies or regulations 

could provide stronger incentives to accelerate 

the development and adoption of energyefficient transportation. 

Alternative Energy for 

Transportation

In recent years, a number of ‘alternative’ fuels, 

many of which emit fewer pollutants than 

do petroleum-based fuels, have emerged as 

economically competitive alternatives. These 

include biomass fuels, natural gas, and hydrogen. 

In addition, hybrid vehicles are increasingly 

popular, and plug-in electric vehicles are breaking 

into the commercial market. 

Advances in technology, volatile oil prices, 

public concern about climate change, and 

expanding recharging/refueling infrastructure 

have increased the market appeal of alternative 

fuel, hybrid electric, and all-electric vehicles. The 

use of alternative fuels in all modes is gradually 

increasing. Aggressive investment and innovation 

could reduce the use of conventional gas and 

diesel combustion engines to less than 10 

percent of the passenger vehicle market by 2045.
57 BEYOND TRAFFIC
HOW WE ADAPT 58

Hybrid and Plug-In Electric 

Vehicles

Hybrid electric vehicles were successfully 

introduced into the passenger car market in 

the late 1990s. Hybrid vehicles use regenerative 

braking and an internal combustion engine to 

charge a battery. They are significantly more 

fuel efficient than are non-hybrid vehicles, and 

increasingly popular with the public. The fleet 

of hybrid electric vehicles in the United States is 

the largest in the world. Approximately 384,000 

hybrid vehicles were sold in 2015; one in every 

35 light-duty vehicles sold was a hybrid or plug-in 

electric vehicle. 

Plug-in electric vehicles run on electricity stored 

in rechargeable battery packs. Currently, plug-in 

electric vehicles take 4 to 6 hours to recharge 

with a typical charger and their range between 

charges is limited by their battery storage 

capacity. Typically, electric cars can travel 

approximately 100 miles on 30-40 kilowatt hours 

of electricity, the equivalent of more than 100 

miles per gallon. Some high-end commercial 

plug-in vehicles can travel as far as 300 miles on 

a single charge. 

Due in part to their lower market share, electric 

and hybrid vehicles cost more to purchase 

than conventional fuel vehicles, although they 

can offer potential operational savings, since 

they do not require gasoline. Improvements 

in battery storage capacity, recharging time, 

and durability will almost certainly expand the 

market for electric vehicles. To be a widely viable 

transportation mode, however, plug-in electric 

vehicles require investments in recharging 

infrastructure, akin to our current network of gas 

stations. Transportation agencies at all levels of 

government are acting to accelerate the adoption 

of electric vehicles by supporting research, 

infrastructure, and fleet and consumer adoption.

CO2 EMISSIONS FROM 

COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT ROSE 

BY 3 PERCENT BETWEEN 1990 

AND 2012, WHILE THE NUMBER 

OF U.S. CARRIER AIRCRAFT 

DEPARTURES INCREASED 

BY OVER 40 PERCENT OVER 

THE SAME PERIOD.

The number of electric vehicle charging stations 

has increased rapidly since the 2010 introduction 

of plug-in electric vehicles. Today, there are more 

than 16,000 electric vehicle charging stations in 

the United States. For overnight charging, electric 

vehicle owners, unless they are relying entirely on 

workplace charging, generally need to have ready 

access to an outlet (or 240-volt battery charger) 

and parking spot. In most areas of the country, 

this means access is limited to single family or 

townhomes rather than apartments or condos, 

although many state initiatives have begun to 

foster charging and parking solutions for multifamily housing. 

Electric vehicle motors are more efficient than 

internal combustion engines and produce no 

emissions at the tailpipe, but the environmental 

benefits of electric vehicles depend, in part, on 

the source of their electricity. Although electric 

vehicles produce no tailpipe emissions, the 

electricity on which they run is produced by 

power plants, which vary considerably in their 

carbon intensity. According to the EPA, coal-fired 

plants are among the most carbon-intensive 

sources of electricity and are the source of 39 

percent of the electricity generated in the United 
59 BEYOND TRAFFIC

States. In regions that depend on coal-fired 

plants for electricity, the use of electric vehicles 

may not result in significantly lower carbon 

emissions. 

Biofuels

Biofuels can be used to power every mode of 

transportation. Bioethanol can be produced from 

corn, sugar cane, sugar beets, and other cereals. 

Biodiesel can be manufactured from vegetable 

oils, animal fats, or recycled restaurant grease. 

Ethanol, the most popular biofuel, was blended 

into gasoline as early as the late 1970s. In 2014, 

about 13 billion gallons of ethanol were added 

to the gasoline consumed in the United States, 

making up approximately 10 percent of all 

domestic gasoline consumed that year. 

Producing ethanol and certain other biomass 

fuels requires the use of machinery, fertilizers, 

and land clearing, all of which can lead to 

increased carbon in the atmosphere. Depending 

on the feedstock and production process, some 

biofuels can emit even more greenhouse gas 

than some fossil fuels. Ethanol derived from food 

crops, such as corn, can lead to higher global 

food prices. Currently, biofuels require subsidies 

and other market interventions to compete 

economically with petroleum and natural 
HOW WE ADAPT 60

FHWA Establishes Electric Vehicle Charging Corridors

In the past eight years the number of plug-in electric vehicle models has increased 

from 1 to more than 20, battery costs have decreased 70 percent, and we have 

increased the number of electric vehicle charging stations from less than 500 in 2008 

to more than 16,000 today—a 40-fold increase.

In 2016, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) established a national network of 

“alternative fuel” corridors spanning 35 states plus the District of Columbia. Forty-eight 

interstates were established electric vehicle charging corridors, totaling almost 25,000 

miles of electric vehicle routes in 35 states. To make it easier for drivers to identify and 

locate charging stations, states designated as “sign-ready” are authorized to use signs 

developed by FHWA that identify electric vehicle charging stations and other alternative 

fuels along the highways similar to existing signage that alerts drivers to gas stations, 

food, and lodging. In these corridors, drivers will be able to expect charging stations 

every 50 miles.

gas-based fuels. Today, most ethanol is derived 

from corn and cane sugar; however, research is 

underway on the conversion of non-food-based 

crops such as crop residue (e.g., corn stalks), 

switch grass, and algae that are believed to have 

greater potential to reduce greenhouse gas 

emissions.

Hydrogen

Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles produce no tailpipe 

greenhouse gas emissions and are highly 

efficient. Unlike electric vehicles, they can be 

quickly refueled. Toyota recently announced that 

it will begin selling cars powered by hydrogen 

fuel cells in Japan. However, for hydrogen to 

become a viable fuel source for passenger and 

freight vehicles in the United States, it would 

require significant investments in production, 

distribution, and refueling infrastructure. 

Technical challenges for safely storing fuel 

and producing affordable fuel cells remain, 

and hydrogen, like biofuels, requires energy to 

produce. To encourage automakers to produce 

vehicles and reduce statewide auto emissions, 

California has recently begun investing millions 

of dollars to establish hydrogen fuel cell stations 

throughout the state. As with biofuels, research 

is underway to overcome challenges to the 

economic viability of hydrogen-fueled vehicles, as 

well as to study uses of hydrogen in the marine 

industry. 

Liquid and Compressed 

Natural Gas

Liquid and compressed natural gas (CNG) 

are fossil fuels, but they burn cleaner than 

conventional gasoline or diesel due to their 

lower carbon content. The recent natural gas 

boom has reduced liquid natural gas (LNG) prices 

significantly, so that the price of LNG is now 

approximately half the price of diesel. As a result, 

natural gas vehicles have become an increasingly 

attractive alternative, particularly for centrally 

fueled fleets that operate within a limited area. 

Public transit agencies have already invested 

heavily in CNG vehicles and infrastructure. In 
61 BEYOND TRAFFIC

addition, some private trucking and delivery 

firms have begun to invest in natural gas vehicle 

fleets. United Parcel Service now has more than 

2,000 natural gas-powered delivery trucks in its 

fleet.

Other transportation modes and industries could 

also adopt compressed natural gas as a primary 

fuel, and may eventually do so. Locomotives 

that have been converted to natural gas are 

currently being tested by several U.S. railroads. 

However, converting any type of vehicle fleet to 

natural gas requires significant investment and 

is not without risk and complication, including 

the fact that existing fueling infrastructure is 

limited. Furthermore, similar to the production 

of biofuels, the extraction of natural gas can also 

result in significant methane leakage (a major 

contributor to climate change) and cause water 

pollution.

The use of natural gas for the propulsion of 

marine vessels is beginning, at least in part, as a 

result of strict international maritime regulations 

requiring the reduction of maritime emissions. 

At present, the American domestic maritime 

industry is building vessels that will be powered 

by LNG.

Reducing Dependency on 

Cars

Over the past decade, many communities 

throughout America have adopted policies 

to encourage Americans to reduce carbon 

emissions by driving less. Although they are 

not viable options for every trip, walking and 

bicycling burn no fuel. Freight rail is significantly 

more efficient per ton-mile than truck haulage 

and other freight modes, and transit options are 

often more efficient per passenger mile than 

driving alone. In general, transit options become 

more efficient the more people they carry. 

IN 2014, ONE IN FIVE 

TRANSIT BUSES USED 

COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS 

OR LIQUID NATURAL GAS.
HOW WE ADAPT 62

Increased use of these modes as an alternative 

to driving could lead to a reduction in carbon 

emissions levels.

Today, however, the use of alternative modes 

oftransportation is often not a viable alternative 

for many trips. Limited facilities and services for 

alternative modes, and a legacy of auto-oriented 

planning and design in many cities, make shifting 

travel demand to more energy-efficient modes 

challenging. A lack of sidewalks and bike paths in 

many communities can make walking and cycling 

feel unsafe—even for short trips. While more 

Americans than ever live in metropolitan areas, 

only slightly more than half of all Americans 

have access to public transit. Intercity rail is a 

competitive alternative to flying or driving in only 

a few corridors. 

Many Americans live in suburban areas and 

less dense cities where homes, jobs, schools, 

and services are spread out. Less dense 

settlement patterns can make it difficult to walk 

and cycle to destinations. It can also be more 

expensive to provide transit services in less 

dense communities. Major expansions of rail 

and public transit systems can cost billions of 

dollars. As transit services have expanded over 

the past decades to less dense cities such as 

Los Angeles and Atlanta, and into rural areas, 

transit, as a whole, has become less fuel efficient 

and more carbon intensive. Local zoning and 

development policies often encourage less dense 

development, raising the cost of transportation 

infrastructure and services, and discouraging the 

use of alternative modes.
63 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Some communities have found ways to provide 

viable alternatives to driving by providing 

better bicycle lanes, wider sidewalks, and new 

public transit options. Others have found ways 

to coordinate land-use and transportation 

planning, adopting “smart growth” and 

sustainable development policies that support 

walking, cycling, and other less carbonintensive transportation modes. Strategies that 

support mixed-use development and multiple 

transportation options and discourage sprawling 

development patterns can enable travelers to 

reduce trip lengths and frequencies, and select 

more carbon efficient means of travel.

Policies could be adopted to influence freight 

mode choices. Rail and water transportation 

are significantly less carbon intensive than 

transportation by truck. Policies that restrict 

transportation by truck or make it more 

expensive, or that increase subsidies to rail 

or maritime freight, could make these less 

carbon intensive modes more economically 

competitive. For example, it is estimated that 

major investments in rail capacity expansion 

could increase rail tonnage by 10 to 20 percent, 

potentially reducing carbon emissions by shifting 

freight from trucks. 

Policy Implications

Our climate is changing as a result of human 

activity, especially the consumption of fossil fuels. 

Scientists predict that some effects of climate 

change may be so profound as to be irreversible. 

The actions of policymakers today—in the 

transportation sector and other parts of society 

and the economy, particularly the production 

of energy and industrial production—will play a 

large role in determining the climate impacts of 

our future.

U.S. DOT’S 2014 CLIMATE 

ADAPTATION PLAN DESCRIBES 

THE ACTIONS U.S. DOT WILL 

TAKE TO ADDRESS POTENTIAL 

CLIMATE IMPACTS, INCLUDING 

INCORPORATING CLIMATE 

VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 

IMPACT CONSIDERATIONS 

IN ASSET MANAGEMENT 

SYSTEMS, AND ENSURING THAT 

TRANSPORTATION PLANS AND 

PROJECTS ADDRESS POTENTIAL 

CLIMATE IMPACTS IN ORDER TO 

PROTECT FEDERAL INVESTMENTS.

The transportation system uses vast amounts 

of petroleum, and vehicles and equipment of 

all types emit carbon-based pollution that is 

damaging our atmosphere. As much as it is a 

cause, our transportation system can also be a 

casualty of climate change. Reducing greenhouse 

gas emissions from transportation could help 

to avoid further effects of climate change. At 

the same time, we need to prepare for the 

major impacts climate change will have on our 

transportation system. 

 Governments at all levels are beginning to 

adopt policies to try to slow and adapt to climate 

change. They are incorporating climate change 

goals in their transportation plans and adopting 

strategies to make transportation systems more 

resilient to severe weather and sea-level rise. At 

the federal level, multiple agencies are investing 
HOW WE ADAPT 64

in research and developing guidance and policies 

to address climate change. Increasing federal fuel 

efficiency standards for cars and trucks is helping 

to reduce emissions in the transportation sector.

We know that vehicles are becoming more 

efficient, through a combination of technological 

improvements, regulation, fuel changes, and 

behavioral changes. Over the next three decades, 

higher fuel efficiency standards, changes 

in consumer behavior, and the adoption of 

alternative fuels in the U.S. transportation sector 

are expected to reduce overall greenhouse gas 

emissions by nearly 10 percent relative to current 

levels. In the United States, much more could be 

done to support fuel efficiency improvements, 

encourage the development and adoption of 

alternative fuels, and support shifting travel to 

more fuel-efficient modes. But real success in 

decreasing greenhouse gas emissions globally 

will require a concerted push of international 

diplomacy to address this global problem. 

Policy options to reduce transportation sector 

greenhouse gas emissions include:

● Investing in alternative fuel research and 

infrastructure and the development of fuel 

efficient technologies.

● Subsidizing the purchase of electric and 

alternative-fuel vehicles.

● Pricing carbon emissions.

● Supporting pricing and operational strategies that reduce congestion on roadways.

● Increasing and extending fuel-efficiency 

standards across all modes.

● Supporting zoning and development policies 

that discourage sprawl.

● Encouraging companies to adopt telework 

policies.

● Investing in transit, rail, and maritime infrastructure to support mode shifts.

● Increasing international government-to-government engagement to pursue joint commitments to control greenhouse gas emissions. 

It is becoming clear that climate change will have 

significant impacts on our current transportation 

infrastructure and on the ways we plan for our 

infrastructure of the future. Planners making 

decisions about infrastructure intended to last 50 

or more years need to start planning for climate 

change today. This could require making difficult 

choices about how and where to invest resources 

to harden critical infrastructure and build system 

resilience to withstand severe weather events. 

Policy options for adapting to climate change 

include:

● Integrating climate change considerations 

into asset management and transportation 

plans.

● Strengthening or abandoning infrastructure 

that is vulnerable to flooding.

● Setting higher standards for the resilience of 

yet-to-be constructed infrastructure.

● Adding redundant infrastructure to increase 

system resiliency.

● Promoting zoning, insurance, and disaster 

recovery policies that discourage development in vulnerable areas.

These policy options are explored in further 

depth in the conclusion of this report. 
65 BEYOND TRAFFIC

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Severe Weather and Sea-Level Rise

● Melillo, Jerry, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. 

Yohe, Eds. 2014. Global Change Research Program. 

“Changes in Storms.” Climate Change Impacts 

in the United States: The Third National Climate 

Assessment. May. (http://nca2014.globalchange.

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● Diffenbaugh, Noah S., Martin Scherer, and Robert 

J. Trapp. “Robust increases in severe thunderstorm 

environments in response to greenhouse forcing.” 

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 

of the United States of America 110 (October 2013): 

16361-16366, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1307758110.

(http://www.pnas.org/content/110/41/16361.

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● Fischetti, Mark. Scientific American. “Sandy 

versus Katrina, and Irene: Monster Hurricanes 

by the Numbers.” October 29, 2014. (http://www.

scientificamerican.com/article/sandy-vs-katrinaand-irene)
HOW WE ADAPT 66

● Transportation Research Board. 2008. Potential 

Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation.

(http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/sr/sr290.pdf)

● (EPA) Environmental Protection Agency. 

Transportation; “Climate Impacts on 

Transportation.”(http://www.epa.gov/

climatechange/impacts-adaptation/transportation.

html) 

● Douglass, Scott L., and Joe Krolak. Federal 

Highway Administration. 2008. “Tides, Storm 

Surge and Water Levels.” Highways in the Coastal 

Environment: Second Edition. June.(http://

www.fhwa.dot.gov/engineering/hydraulics/

pubs/07096/3.cfm)

● (EPA) Environmental Protection Agency. Climate 

Change Indicators in the United States; “Oceans.” 

(http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/

indicators/oceans/sea-level.html) 

● National Center for Atmospheric Research. News 

Center; “Evaluating the Effects of Future Sea Level 

Rise and Storm Surges Along U.S. Coastlines.” 

(http://ncar.ucar.edu/press/evaluating-the-effectsof-future-sea-level-rise-and-storm-surges-along-uscoastlines)

● Melillo, Jerry, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. 

Yohe, Eds. 2014. Global Change Research Program. 

“Airports Vulnerable to Storm Surge.” Climate 

Change Impacts in the United States: The Third 

National Climate Assessment. May. (http://www.

globalchange.gov/browse/multimedia/airportsvulnerable-storm-surge)

● Wright, Kevin M., and Christopher Hogan. 

Department of Transportation. 2008. The Potential 

Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation 

Infrastructure. October. (http://climate.dot.gov/

impacts-adaptations/pdf/entire.pdf)

● New York State 2014-15 Executive Budget, 

Transportation (https://www.budget.ny.gov/

pubs/archive/fy1415archive/eBudget1415/

fy1415littlebook/Transportation.pdf)

Figure: Rising Sea Levels Will Disrupt 

Transportation

● Melillo, Jerry, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. 

Yohe, Eds. 2014. Global Change Research Program. 

“Airports Vulnerable to Storm Surge.” Climate 

Change Impacts in the United States: The Third 

National Climate Assessment. May. (http://www.

globalchange.gov/browse/multimedia/airportsvulnerable-storm-surge)

Transportation Emissions

● (EPA) Environmental Protection Agency. Global 

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data; “Global Emissions 

by Source.” (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/

ghgemissions/global.html#two)

● (EPA) Environmental Protection Agency. Sources 

of Greenhouse Gas Emissions; “Overview.”(http://

www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/

sources.html)

● U.S. Energy Information Administration, 

“International Energy Statistics: Petroleum 

Consumption” http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/

ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=5&aid=2

Figure: U.S. Greenhouse Emissions by 

Sector

● EPA, Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 

Transportation Sector Emissions, http://www3.

epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/sources/

transportation.html

Fuel Efficiency

● Volpe, The National Transportation Systems Center. 

“Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards.” 

(http://www.volpe.dot.gov/sites/volpe.dot.gov/files/

docs/CAFE_infographic_v3.pdf)

● (NHTSA) National Highway Traffic Safety 

Administration. 2011. Summary of Fuel Economy 

Performance. April. (http://www.nhtsa.gov/

staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/2011_Summary_

Report.pdf) 

● (NHTSA) National Highway Traffic Safety 

Administration and (EPA) Environmental Protection 

Agency. 2012. NHTSA and EPA Set Standards to 

Improve Fuel Economy and Reduce Greenhouse 

Gases for Passenger Cars and Light Trucks for 

Model Years 2017 and Beyond. (http://www.nhtsa.

gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/CAFE_2017-

25_Fact_Sheet.pdf) 

● (EPA) Environmental Protection Agency. 2013. 

Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 

and Sinks: 1990 – 2013. (http://www3.epa.gov/

climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.

html)

● McCollum, David, Gregory Gould, and David 

Greene. Pew Center on Global Climate Change. 

2009. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Aviation 

and Marine Transportation: Mitigation Potential 

and Policies. December. (http://www.c2es.org/

docUploads/aviation-and-marine-report-2009.pdf)
67 BEYOND TRAFFIC

● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. 2005. 

Assessing the Effects of Freight Movement on Air 

Quality at the National and Regional Level. April.

(http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/TP/docs/reports/

fhwafrtairqualrep1.pdf) 

● (DOE) Department of Energy. 2013. Transportation 

Energy Futures: Project Overview and Findings.

(http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56270.pdf) 

New Standards in Fuel Efficiency

● (NHTSA) National Highway Traffic Safety 

Administration and (EPA) Environmental Protection 

Agency. 2012. NHTSA and EPA Set Standards to 

Improve Fuel Economy and Reduce Greenhouse 

Gases for Passenger Cars and Light Trucks for 

Model Years 2017 and Beyond.(http://www.nhtsa.

gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/CAFE_2017-

25_Fact_Sheet.pdf) 

Alternative Energy for Transportation

● (DOE) Department of Energy. Alternative Fuels Data 

Center; “U.S. HEV Sales by Model.”(http://www.afdc.

energy.gov/data)

● Frades, Matt. Center for Climate and Energy 

Solutions. “Electric Vehicle Consumers – Beyond 

Early Adopters.” January 10, 2014.(http://www.

c2es.org/blog/fradesm/electric-vehicle-consumersbeyond-early-adopters)

● (DOE) Department of Energy. Alternative Fuels Data 

Center; “Light-Duty Vehicles Sold in the U.S.”(http://

www.afdc.energy.gov/data/10314) 

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. Frequently 

Asked Questions; “What is U.S. electricity generation 

by energy source?” (http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/

faq.cfm?id=427&t=3)

● (DOE) Department of Energy. 2014. Clean Cities 

Alternative Fuel Price Report. July(http://www.afdc.

energy.gov/uploads/publication/alternative_fuel_

price_report_july_2014.pdf) 

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. ShortTerm Energy Outlook; “Real Prices Viewer.” (http://

www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/realprices) 

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. 2012. 

Biofuels Issues and Trends. October.(http://www.

eia.gov/biofuels/issuestrends/pdf/bit.pdf)

● (EPA) Environmental Protection Agency. Biofuels 

and the Environment; “Basic Information.”(http://

www.epa.gov/ncea/biofuels/basicinfo.htm)

● Baier, Scott, et al. Board of Governors of the Federal 

Reserve System. 2009. Biofuels Impact on Crop 

and Food Prices: Using an Interactive Spreadsheet. 

March.(http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/

ifdp/2009/967/ifdp967.pdf)

● (CBO) Congressional Budget Office. 2009. The 

Impact of Ethanol Use on Food Prices and 

Greenhouse-Gas Emissions. April. (http://www.cbo.

gov/sites/default/files/04-08-ethanol.pdf)

● (EERE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable 

Energy. Research, Development, Demonstration, 

and Deployment. (http://energy.gov/eere/

bioenergy/research-development-demonstrationand-deployment)

● Chase, Nicholas. Energy Information Administration. 

“Potential of liquefied natural gas use as a railroad 

fuel.” April 14, 2014. (http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/

aeo/section_issues.cfm#liq_nat_gas)

● (DOE) Department of Energy. Alternative Fuels Data 

Center; “Average Per-Passenger Fuel Economy of 

Various Travel Modes.” (http://www.afdc.energy.

gov/data/10311) 

● Neff, John and Matthew Dickens. American Public 

Transportation Association. 2014. 2014 Public 

Transportation Fact Book: Appendix A. September.

(http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/

Documents/FactBook/2014-APTA-Fact-BookAppendix-A.pdf)

● Bebon, Joseph. “UPS Wrapping Up Major CNG 

Deployment.” NGT News. Dec 21, 2015. (http://

ngtnews.com/ups-wrapping-up-new-cngdeployment/)

Figure: Plug-In and Hybrid Vehicle 

Sales

● (DOE) Department of Energy. Alternative Fuels Data 

Center; “U.S. PEV Sales by Model.”(http://www.afdc.

energy.gov/data)

● (DOE) Department of Energy. Alternative Fuels Data 

Center; “U.S. HEV Sales by Model.” (http://www.afdc.

energy.gov/data)

Figure: Alternative Fuel Prices

● (DOE) Department of Energy. Alternative Fuels Data 

Center; “Alternative Price Report” http://www.afdc.

energy.gov/fuels/prices.html
HOW WE ADAPT 68

Mode Shift

● (DOT) Department of Transportation. 2010. 

Transportation’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse 

Gas Emissions: Volume 1. April. (http://ntl.bts.gov/

lib/32000/32700/32779/DOT_Climate_Change_

Report_-_April_2010_-_Volume_1_and_2.pdf)

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. 2014. 

Annual Energy Outlook 2014. April. (http://www.eia.

gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2014).pdf)

● (DOE) Department of Energy. 2013. Transportation 

Energy Futures: Freight Transportation Modal 

Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future. (http://

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/55636.pdf) 

Figure: Fuel Economy by Mode

● (DOE) Department of Energy. Alternative Fuels Data 

Center; “Average Per-Passenger Fuel Economy of 

Various Travel Modes.” (http://www.afdc.energy.

gov/data/10311) 
69 BEYOND TRAFFIC

HOW WE MOVE BETTER

Introduction

Over the next 30 years, advances in data 

collection, computing, navigation systems, 

communication and mobile technologies, and 

robotics have the potential to dramatically 

change the way we travel and deliver goods 

and services. Technologies emerging today 

promise to make our future transportation 

system safer, more reliable, more efficient, 

more environmentally sustainable, and more 

convenient. Many of the most transformative 

technology applications for transportation have 

been developed in other sectors and for other 

purposes. One magazine recently declared the 

smartphone the “most important transportation 

innovation of the decade.” 

Governments have provided essential 

contributions through research, regulation, and 

policy to support the development of a number 

of technologies important to transportation, such 

as GPS, the Internet, and fuel-efficient vehicles, 

vessels, and aircraft. These inventions have 

boosted the American economy, creating jobs 

for American workers and improving our quality 

of life. Still, governments are often perceived as 

“behind the curve”—too slow to adopt promising 

technologies, and imposing unwarranted barriers 

on beneficial innovations. 

As technology continues to advance, 

governments will need to anticipate, 

accommodate, and accelerate innovation. At the 

same time, as new technologies increase our 

reliance on ever more sophisticated and complex 

systems, governments will need to understand 

and mitigate the risks associated with new 

technologies to ensure that our transportation 

system remains safe, secure, and accessible.

This section summarizes broad, crosscutting 

technological trends that are transforming 

transportation. 

Breakthroughs in Tracking 

and Navigation

GPS, initially developed for the military, is now 

used by transportation users, from drivers 

to cyclists to ocean-going cargo vessels, to 

access accurate location, timing, and navigation 

services. With the strong support of the federal 

government, positioning, navigation, and timing 

services have become widely available. 

America’s GPS is no longer the only Global 

Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)—Russia’s 

GLOSNASS is operational and Europe’s Galileo 

soon may be. Nations such as China, Japan, and 

India are planning their own systems. Private 

systems combine other data sources, such as 

cell-tower locations and Wi-Fi signals, to provide 

location information. Future travelers will be able 

to access many of these systems from the same 

device, enabling speedier and more accurate 

location fixes, while providing some measure of 

redundancy. Today, GPS provides positioning, 

navigation, and timing information to all takers.

GPS is increasingly yielding benefits for 

transportation. For example, it allows drivers 

to choose routes based on prevailing traffic 

conditions, and allows public transit users to 
HOW WE MOVE BETTER 70

know when the next bus or train is arriving. Fleet 

managers of freight companies, public transit 

systems, and school buses are able to track 

vehicles in real time, maximize vehicle utilization, 

and select efficient, reliable routes. Applied 

to aviation, GPS can help pilots navigate, and 

allow planes to fly more efficient routes more 

safely. In marine transportation, it improves 

the efficiency and security of ports by allowing 

for the identification and tracking of vessels 

and containers. Rail systems use GPS for asset 

management, tracking, and positive train 

control. For truck safety enforcement, GPS allows 

inspection sites to be mobile. In the future, GPS 

may play a large role in enabling the deployment 

of connected and automated vehicles and 

payment systems, which are discussed below. 

An Era of Big Data

Data collection and analysis will become cheap 

and widespread. The information that agencies 

and companies need to make transportation 

decisions has never been easier to acquire, 

understand, and use. The billions of machines 

networked together by the Internet are 

constantly generating data, much of which can be 

useful to all types of transportation agencies, as 

well as freight and logistics companies. 

Emerging data sources and tools have the 

potential to improve how public agencies make 

investment and operational decisions, how 

standards are set and engage the public. For 

example, mobile applications can allow citizens 

to report potholes allowing local agencies to 

quickly respond to road maintenance needs. 

Sensors on transit, taxi, and truck fleets can 

monitor where vehicles drive, how fast they are 

being driven, and when maintenance is required. 

The same technologies can be applied to planes, 

trains, and vessels.

IN A “BIG DATA” WORLD, PUBLIC 

AGENCIES WILL NEED TO DEVELOP 

THEIR CAPACITY TO COLLECT, STORE, 

ANALYZE, AND REPORT DATA. 

Among their many uses, GPS and smartphones 

enable automatic no-hands tracking, replacing 

the frequent written journal entries traditionally 

used by shippers and carriers. Data can be 

collected from commercial providers, or 

volunteers across all modes, even biking and 

walking. License plate scanners and wireless 

signal detection can collect the data needed to 

model traffic movement and demand at lower 

costs and higher volumes than traditional, 

manual methods. Today, many police forces 

use license plate scanners to search for stolen 

vehicles or vehicles that have failed to maintain 

license registration or insurance. 

Data are increasingly easy to share and use, 

thanks to open-source software and open-data 

standards. For example, it is now commonplace 

to share transit schedule and route information, 

making it possible for software developers and 

researchers to work with transit agencies across 

the globe. Defining the public sector’s role in 

collecting, formatting, and sharing data will 

require input and support from stakeholders and 

potential beneficiaries.

New techniques for collecting and sharing 

real-time information are already being used to 

improve convenience and mobility for transit 

and vehicle travel. Real-time vehicle location data 

enables arrival time prediction apps for transit 

systems, which allow riders to time their arrival 

to a transit stop to when the bus or train will 

actually arrive. Apps using real-time traffic data 
71 BEYOND TRAFFIC

THE WIDESPREAD ADOPTION 

OF TRAVELER INFORMATION 

SYSTEMS IS MAKING TRAVEL EASIER 

AND MORE CONVENIENT.

allow vehicle drivers to change their routes on 

the fly to avoid congestion or traffic crashes. 

The increasingly widespread use of GPS and 

networked data collection devices also raises 

serious privacy concerns. Data security and 

privacy will continue to be concerns that 

may limit transportation applications. Freight 

companies, airlines—anyone who keeps 

information private to retain a competitive 

advantage—may be reluctant to release their 

data. Regulators, researchers, and other data 

users will need to establish agreements and 

systems to protect certain data. If agencies want 

to continue to use information collected from 

individual travelers, it will be critical to continue 

to remove characteristics from data that would 

allow for personal identification of individuals. 

Malicious thefts or inadvertent releases can 

erode public trust and make it difficult or 

impossible to use modern data science. 

Fast and Easy Payment

Payment will be easy, frequent, and inexpensive. 

Collecting user fees to fund transportation has 

often been a cumbersome process, whether 

it has involved public transit users converting 

change to tokens, or vehicle drivers stopping 

at booths to pay highway tolls. New payment 

and fee collection technologies are reducing 

queuing for collection, increasing the efficiency of 

collection, and allowing user fees to move toward 

reflecting true user costs.

These technologies can take many forms. Builtin and standardized hardware radio tags for 

vehicle tolls and swipe cards for transit riders 

have been implemented across the country, 

but require users to install dedicated hardware. 

Seamless payment that uses smartphone apps 

or license-plate readers are beginning to roll out, 

and are becoming popular with both users and 

implementers. Public agencies are developing 

ways to ensure that low-income people, who are 

less likely to own a smartphone or have a bank 

account are able to benefit from these advances 

in payment technology. 

New methods of payment will enable 

transportation agencies to develop more 

targeted user-fee-based revenue streams. It is 

now technically feasible for a transportation 

agency to charge individual road users for their 

use of infrastructure and their contributions to 

congestion, emissions, and wear and tear on 

roads by using GPS applications, smartphones, 

image-recognition software, and automated 

payment systems. In comparison, fuel taxes, 

sales taxes, and general-fund revenues are crude 

instruments, and physical toll infrastructure 

has significant costs of collection. To alleviate 

privacy concerns and incentivize voluntary citizen 

participation in more efficient and targeted 

automated payment systems, transportation 

agencies could use incentive-based programs, 

similar to auto insurance programs that offer 

discounts to drivers who use devices that track 

how safely they appear to drive.

There’s an App for That

The vast majority of Americans now have access 

to the Internet; 64 percent of all Americans, and 

85 percent of Americans ages 18-29 now own 

a smartphone. Two-thirds of all smartphone 

owners use their phones to navigate while 

driving; one in four use their phone to get public 
HOW WE MOVE BETTER 72
73 BEYOND TRAFFIC BEYOND TRAFFIC

transit information. Many vehicles are equipped 

with on-board computers and GPS navigation 

systems. These systems can be used to access 

detailed maps, real-time travel conditions, and 

up-to-the-minute service schedules that help 

travelers make decisions about how, when, and 

where to travel. 

The relative openness of major smartphone 

platforms has allowed developers to release 

applications useful across all modes. A range of 

tasks—from obtaining walking directions to the 

nearest bus stop, to hailing taxis—is made easier 

due to the widespread adoption of smartphones. 

Mobile-phone apps are being used by public 

agencies to monitor air and vessel traffic and 

infrastructure conditions. Freight companies use 

mobile phones and tablets to log driver hours 

and monitor packages. Phone-based location 

data are used to collect and provide real-time 

information on traffic conditions. Smartphones 

are increasingly being used to make or certify 

payments for transportation services. 

Desktop Manufacturing

3D printing has the potential to disrupt 

traditional supply chains and counteract the 

growth of imports by reducing the need for 

large-scale manufacturing, transportation, and 

storage services. 3D printing is a groundbreaking 

technology that allows manufacturers to render 

three-dimensional objects from a digital file with 

great precision using a laser or an extruder to 

build an object layer by layer. Engineers have 

been using 3D printers for more than a decade, 

but 3D printers are now becoming more precise 

and more amenable to using a broader range 

of materials. Desktop 3D printers have been 

made commercially available and their costs 

are dropping, leading to more widespread 

consumer use. 3D printers could make it possible 

to manufacture customized products and parts 

more quickly and inexpensively.

Just as online shopping now makes it possible for 

companies to bypass traditional storefronts, 3D 

printing will allow for more localized production 
HOW WE MOVE BETTER TRENDS 74

and decentralized manufacturing. It may 

also lead to an increase in the delivery of 

raw materials for 3D manufacturing. In the 

service parts industry, 3D printing may result 

in decreasing shipments of finished parts. 

In health care, 3D printing is being used 

to manufacture customized hearing aids, 

braces, and even artificial limbs. The potential 

effects of 3D printing on certain industries—

electronics, automobiles, and medicine—

are great, but the future of such a novel 

technology is difficult to predict. Continued 

advances in 3D printing could impact freight 

transportation by shortening supply chains 

for high-value, urgent products, potentially 

reducing demand for air freight in particular.

Robotics and Automation

Robotics research is advancing across all 

transportation modes. Advances in robotics 

are useful in many broad applications. 

An algorithm that uses camera feeds to 

detect humans may have been developed 

to protect factory workers, but can be just 

as useful when applied to security cameras 

on a transit platform, or to the sensors on 

an automated vehicle. Billions of dollars in 

military, commercial, and academic research 

have brought about unmanned, commercially 

available aerial and ground vehicles and 

watercraft. Robotics and automation 

research is poised to change much of how 

transportation functions. 

The advent of automated ground vehicles 

can change the way transportation agencies 

perform operations and maintenance, and 

deploy fleets and utility vehicles. Many 

tasks associated with construction, and 

road operations and maintenance, can be 

performed by either automated vehicles 

or remotely operated vehicles. Automated 

ROBOTICS

Advances in robotics are

changing transportation 

operations and 

will impact the future

transportation 

workforce.

Robots will perform

vital transportation 

functions, such as 

critical infrastructure

inspection. 
75 BEYOND TRAFFIC

climbing robots for aviation radio towers, 

autonomous railroad track measurers, and fully 

autonomous pipeline inspection gauges are all 

under development, with some already available 

commercially.

Automation will have a potentially transformative 

impact across all transportation modes, 

increasing productivity, improving safety, and 

enhancing the capacity of existing infrastructure. 

It will also have a profound impact on the 

transportation workforce, changing the skills 

required to manage, operate, and maintain 

transportation vehicles and systems. The 

applications and effects of automation and other 

technological advances on the transportation 

system are described in greater detail below.

Modal Advances

AVIATION

The Next Generation Air Transportation System 

(NextGen) is beginning to modernize air traffic 

control nationwide. The Federal Aviation 

Administration (FAA) controls and regulates the 

national airspace system. NextGen is an upgrade 

from the earlier ground-based radar navigation 

system to satellite-based navigation technology 

that is expected to make aviation safer and more 

efficient. Although NextGen is a long-term and 

complex undertaking, we are already witnessing 

significant benefits from it—giving pilots and 

controllers more flexibility at certain airports, 

reducing wake-based separation standards at 

others, and reducing congestion in some busy 

metro areas.

Many of these gains will be enabled by new 

technologies, policies, and procedures, such as 

systems to coordinate information exchange, 

and GPS-based aircraft surveillance and 

communications to improve safety. The use 

of GPS-based systems will greatly improve 

the precision of air traffic control operations. 

Aircraft will be routed to more direct and more 

efficient paths between origins and destinations 

and will be able to fly more closely spaced, 

reducing congestion and delays caused by 

congestion, and improving efficiency. Onboard 

digital communications equipment will improve 

communications between the cockpit and 

air traffic control and allow for enhanced 

information accessibility. Improved air navigation 

procedures are already being rolled out which 

allow aircraft to use less fuel, saving airlines and 

consumers money and reducing emissions. 

Even as FAA finishes installing the foundational 

infrastructure necessary to enable digital 

communications and optimized routing that 

are yielding tangible benefits to air travelers, 

challenges remain to complete the roll out of 

NextGen. A key challenge is coordinating among 

numerous stakeholders from manufacturers to 

airports, to commercial carriers and international 

partners. Many of the major technological 

element of NextGen require airlines to 

make voluntary investments in equipment. 

Cooperation among stakeholders is needed 

to set standards, develop technologies, and 

make the investments necessary to achieve 

promised benefits. Past budget uncertainty has 

affected FAA’s ability to implement NextGen 

leading to delays and raising questions from 

industry partners. Finally, cybersecurity issues 

also present an ongoing technical challenge 

that FAA has sought to address by integrating 

cybersecurity risk management activities 

throughout its NextGen research, development, 

and deployment activities.

Commercial space transportation will become 

available to the public. Wealthy individuals have 
HOW WE MOVE BETTER 76

been able to purchase seats on the Russian 

Soyuz for many years, but flights are infrequent, 

cost millions of dollars, and require months of 

training.

New vendors are competing to provide lower 

cost and more routine private space flight, 

eventually turning this once novel mode of 

transportation into a reality for more people. 

Established vendors will provide cost-effective 

transportation for critical government or privatesector assets, such as satellites. Additionally, 

space tourism is seen as highly likely at 

some point in the near future, and nearly a 

thousand tickets have already been purchased. 

Communities across the country are already 

competing to host this emerging market and 

have invested public funds in infrastructure to 

support spaceport development.

Initial uses will be suborbital tourism flights, 

where tourists experience the sights and 

sensations of space for a few minutes. The 

appeal of a two-hour suborbital flight from the 

East Coast to Asia continues to draw interest and 

research funds, but may take decades to become 

economically feasible. Success in the suborbital 

market is expected to translate eventually into 

longer orbital flights and visits to space stations. 

Widespread commercial use of unmanned 

aircraft systems (UAS) is imminent. The 

burgeoning commercial drone industry is 

projected to generate more than $82 billion for 

the U.S. economy and, by 2025, could support 

as many as 100,000 new jobs. On June 21, 2016 

the Obama administration announced rules to 

govern non-recreational uses of UAS under 55 

pounds. The rules seek to ensure the safety, 

security, and privacy of the American public, 

while permitting the responsible commercial, 

scientific, public, and educational use of UAS. 
77 BEYOND TRAFFIC
HOW WE MOVE BETTER 78

This new technology has already helped 

government, the research community, and 

industry carry out their work more efficiently and 

safely. Today, unmanned aircraft are used for a 

variety of applications in areas like environmental 

monitoring and scientific research, precision 

agriculture and crop maintenance, safe 

infrastructure inspection, firefighting, search 

and rescue operations, and education. UAS will 

enable high-impact research, create new jobs 

and industries, save lives, and provide scientific, 

economic, and social benefits that public and 

private entities are only beginning to explore. 

Many of the early missions for civilian UAS 

are for such purposes as remote sensing and 

surveillance. Unmanned aircraft have already 

been deployed by international emergency 

response teams in mudslides, wildfires, 

hurricanes, structural collapses, nuclear 

accidents, and tsunamis. In the U.S., government 

efforts to monitor wildlife and endangered 

and invasive plant and animal species, protect 

sensitive ecosystems, inspect and repair 

infrastructure, map and predict extreme 

weather events, and manage and monitor the 

environment have all seen improvement with 

the use of unmanned aircraft systems. Larger 

vehicles capable of carrying heavier payloads will 

enable more uses, such as spraying farm fields, 

surveying lands and infrastructure, and providing 

radio coverage to broad areas as an alternative 

to satellites.

Google, Amazon, and DHL have been evaluating 

delivery of packages by unmanned aircraft 

for several years. Remotely piloted drone 

deliveries could soon be used to provide highvalue and urgent cargo to remote and hard-toreach locations. For example, the ability to use 

unmanned aircraft deliveries could be used to 

deliver medical supplies to remote areas after a 

natural disaster has already been demonstrated. 

Delivery by unmanned aircraft in dense urban 

environments presents significantly greater 

security, safety, and privacy risks, and will likely 

take longer to develop.

MARINE TRANSPORTATION

Marine automation is increasing efficiency and 

decreasing crew size. A large vessel that would 

have employed a crew of 25 only a decade ago 

may be possible to operate with a much smaller 

crew over the next few decades. While this 

reduces the costs of shipping freight and grants 

vessel operators more flexibility, it could also 

mean that a ship’s crew has less ability to quickly 

respond to incidents such as spills, groundings, 

and piracy. Ships could be piloted remotely with 

a small crew of technicians onboard in case of 

mechanical failure.

While full automation is still decades away, 

the signs of the future are on the horizon. In 

the summer of 2014, the U.S. Coast Guard 

introduced a pilot project to deploy virtual aids 

to navigation as opposed to physical sea buoys. 

Virtual aids to navigation will help to lay the 

foundation for the remotely-operated ships of 

the future. Likewise, research and development 

efforts are focused on examining barge 

operations on inland waterways. 

The labor required to load and unload vessels 

has been decreasing since motorized equipment 

became available at ports. With the advent of 

containerization, even more cargo transfer 

functions have been automated from the cranes 

unloading the ships to the use of automated 

vehicles to maneuver containers around the 

port. These trends continue to enhance the 

efficiency of cargo handling operations and are 

leading to changes in the skillsets required of 

the port workforce. Increasingly, automated 

ports will require less manual labor, but will 
79 BEYOND TRAFFIC

demand a highly trained, tech-savvy workforce 

to run and maintain the automated machinery. 

Technological advances also reduce the cost of 

shipping and increase flexibility, while enabling 

the needed capacity expansion to handle larger 

vessel sizes.

RAIL TRANSPORTATION

Positive train control (PTC) refers to critical 

national transportation infrastructure consisting 

of advanced interoperable technologies, 

which, when fully and properly configured 

can prevent collisions, derailments, and other 

safety incidents. PTC systems use digital radio 

communications, GPS services, and other 

technologies to send and receive a continuous, 

real-time stream of information about the 

location, direction and speed of trains in real 

time. In this way, PTC helps dispatchers and 

train crews safely and efficiently manage train 

movements. 

Deployment of PTC on critical portions of the 

nation’s rail transportation network is mandated 

by federal law. Meeting this mandate requires 

the installation of equipment and technology 

on 60,000 miles of Class I freight railroad 

rights-of-way, and an additional 8,400 miles 

of track for intercity passenger and commuter 

railroads. Railroads implementing PTC must 

equip over 22,500 locomotives, install over 

48,000 radios, and modify 23,000 signals and 

switches. They also must secure sufficient 

radio frequency spectrum and install 22,000 

wireless communications towers. These final two 

items are subject to Federal Communications 

Commission approval, in addition to the normal 

regulatory oversight by the Federal Railroad 

Administration. Implementation of interoperable 

PTC systems at this scale is unprecedented and 

has been slow due to the enormous complexity 

of the task. Railroads continue to make 

incremental progress toward implementation to 

meet the recently extended deadline mandated 

by federal law of December 31, 2018.

New technologies are emerging to monitor 

the health of tracks and identify locations 

on the rail network that require attention to 

prevent derailments. These technologies will 

be mounted to trains in operational service so 

that measurements are made continuously 

and automatically. New sensors are also being 

installed by the side of strategically located 

tracks to monitor the health of every rail car 

that passes. These devices automatically 

analyze trends in performance so that cars 

needing attention can be taken out of service for 

maintenance before their condition deteriorates 

below a safe limit. 

Advances in high-speed rail technologies 

could increase the speed and convenience of 

passenger travel. In addition to high-speed 

locomotives expected to emerge in the United 

States over the coming decades, magnetic 

levitation (maglev) trains—which utilize magnetic 

forces to lift, guide, and propel trains—are a 

budding technology (although more prominent 

in some international systems). In congested 

travel corridors, high-speed rail could 

compete for airline traffic, alleviating aviation 

IN 2008, THE PORT OF PITTSBURGH 

WAS GRANTED A PATENT FOR 

“SMARTLOCK,” A NEW INTEGRATION 

OF TECHNOLOGIES THAT ALLOWS 

TOWBOATS AND THEIR TOWS 

TO PASS SAFELY THROUGH 

LOCKS IN ZERO VISIBILITY.
HOW WE MOVE BETTER 80

congestion and boosting regional economies. 

The investment required to make high-speed 

rail corridors a reality, even if only in our most 

densely populated areas, is on the order of 

tens of billions of dollars. Public high-speed rail 

investments have moved forward in California, as 

have investments to improve the speed of trains 

along the North East Corridor, but sufficient 

public support has not been forthcoming 

elsewhere.

In recent years, interest in Hyperloop, or 

pneumatic tube transportation systems, and 

related technologies has grown. Hyperloop 

systems use vacuum tubes to reduce air 

resistance and transport goods and passengers 

over magnetic tracks at high speeds. The 

technology is still in early phases of conceptual 

development, though it could one day rival 

high-speed rail as a mode of high-speed surface 

travel. Yet there are numerable technical and 

practical questions that must be answered 

before Hyperloop travel becomes a realistic 

transport option. To name just one of the many 

challenges facing this technology, Hyperloop 

systems must travel in straight lines and would 

require significant right of way. This could make 

construction of a Hyperloop system near and 

through populated areas prohibitively expensive. 

MOTOR VEHICLES

Three distinct but related streams of 

technological change and development are 

occurring simultaneously: in-vehicle crash 

avoidance systems that provide warnings and/

or limited automated control of safety functions; 

connected vehicle technologies—vehicle-tovehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) 

communications that support various crash 

avoidance applications; and self-driving vehicles. 

V2V technologies will soon by deployed that 

allow nearby vehicles to exchange data on their 

positions and use these data to warn drivers 

of potential collisions or to support automated 

safety technologies to prevent collisions. While 

many new models of automobiles currently 

use on-board sensors for collision warning 

systems, such as forward crash warnings, V2V 

technologies are capable of warning drivers of 

potential collisions that are not visible to sensors, 

such as a stopped vehicle blocked from view, or a 

moving vehicle at a blind intersection. 

V2I communications will allow infrastructure, 

such as traffic signals, to communicate with 

vehicles. V2I systems could be used to send 

information to vehicles that allow the vehicles to 

warn drivers about weather conditions, traffic, 

upcoming work zones, and even potholes. V2I 

communications could also create a variety of 

operational benefits, such as enabling wireless 

roadside inspections and helping truckers to 

identify parking spots.

V2I technologies could also allow for coordinated 

signal timing and improved parking information 

systems that could improve traffic flows in urban 

areas. Data from connected vehicle technology 

could provide traffic management centers 

with detailed, real-time information on traffic 

flow, speeds, and other vehicle conditions, and 

allow more rapid response to traffic incidents. 

This real-time information could be used to 

increase the efficiency of urban and regional 

transportation systems. Adaptive traffic signal 

control could adjust signal timing to respond to 

congestion or other traffic conditions. Transit 

agencies could apply real-time information and 

connected vehicle technology to allow for realtime monitoring and control of transit vehicles 

leading to quicker, more reliable service for 

riders.
81 BEYOND TRAFFIC

The application of connected vehicle 

technologies presents significant technical 

and policy challenges to public agencies and 

private partners. These include continuing to 

develop the standards and architecture for 

wireless systems, having enough equipped 

vehicles and roadside units to fully realize 

benefits, and deploying the systems needed 

to enable V2I communications. Deployment 

of V2I systems could require substantial 

investments to install and maintain 

roadside equipment, and to upgrade traffic 

management systems. However, given its 

tremendous potential, the federal government 

is supporting the deployment of connected 

vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure 

technology.

AUTOMATED VEHICLES 

The automation of motor vehicles will 

revolutionize ground transportation. We 

are at the beginning of a period of dramatic 

change in the capabilities of, and expectations 

for, the vehicles we drive. The development 

of advanced automated vehicle safety 

technologies, including fully self-driving 

vehicles, may prove to be the greatest 

personal transportation revolution since the 

popularization of the personal automobile 

nearly a century ago. 

Fully automated vehicles use GPS extensive 

mapping data, wireless communications, and 

sensor systems, including cameras, lasers, and 

radar, to “see” and to navigate through their 

environment. Partial automation of driving 

functions, such as lane guidance, active cruise 

control, and automatic braking are already 

available in luxury vehicles, and are becoming 

more widespread. With hundreds of millions 

of private and public dollars invested in 

researching and developing automation features, 

these technologies will become increasingly 

common in the near future. 

Many expect a tiered roll out of vehicles as 

driving functions are increasingly automated over 

the next decade. Automated driving on limitedaccess highways could be an option on luxury 

vehicles in several years. Fully automated, selfdriving vehicles could be commercially available 

within the next decade.

Automated vehicles have the potential to 

transform our transportation system. Unresolved 

issues, such as cost considerations and the 

impact on emissions remain, but automated 

vehicles may create many benefits, including: 

● Significantly reducing crashes, thereby 

improving safety, travel time reliability, and 

congestion associated with crashes.

● Enabling real-time route planning, thus 

improving travel time and reliability.

● Increasing the ability of existing 

infrastructure to accommodate more 

vehicles due to synchronized traffic flows.

● Improving transportation access to the 

young, older adults, and people with 

disabilities.

● Reducing costs associated with delivering 

freight.

● Freeing up time traditionally spent driving 

for more productive or recreational 

activities.

Research shows that human error and choice 

is partly or totally to blame for 94 percent of 

all crashes. Unsafe driving behavior—including 

distracted driving, speeding, reckless driving, 

and driving under the influence of drugs and 

alcohol—is a common cause of, and contributor 

to, fatalities and serious injuries. Distracted 
HOW WE MOVE BETTER 82

driving remains a critical concern as the flow 

of information to the driver from in-vehicle 

systems and portable electronic devices is 

expected to increase. This information must be 

managed to ensure safety. 

In 2015, 35,092 people died in traffic crashes; 

2.4 million people were injured. Ultimately, 

automation features in vehicles could prevent 

many of the crashes that are caused by unsafe 

driving, potentially saving tens of thousands 

of lives each year. Preventing significant 

numbers of crashes, in addition to relieving 

the enormous emotional toll on families, will 

also greatly reduce the related societal costs—

lives lost, hospital stays, days of work missed, 

and property damage—that total hundreds of 

billions of dollars each year.

Eliminating a significant portion of motor 

vehicle crashes would also reduce congestion. 

Currently, traffic incidents account for about 

one-third of all delays related to traffic 

congestion. Congestion caused by motor vehicle 

crashes also leads to wasted fuel and increased 

pollution. The ability to anticipate braking and 

acceleration in other vehicles will not only 

reduce crashes—it will also lead to additional 

fuel savings and reduced vehicle maintenance. 

Automated, connected vehicles might also 

be able to drive more closely together, 

potentially reducing congestion and decreasing 

travel times. By some estimates, a partially 

automated fleet of vehicles could increase 

freeway capacity by 10–25 percent, while 

estimates for the capacity increases for a fully 

automated automobile fleet range as high as 

a 5-fold increase. In urban areas, automation 

will increase parking capacity: self-parking cars 

can park more closely together. Congestion 

could be further reduced as cars spend less 
83 BEYOND TRAFFIC

time searching for parking spaces. Parking apps, 

including truck parking apps, are already being 

deployed, and have already begun to reduce 

emissions and improve efficiency.

Highly automated vehicles could change the 

way many people access mobility, increasing the 

use of on-demand car services, both personal 

and pooled, and reducing the need for personal 

vehicle ownership. Automated vehicles could also 

lower the operating costs and improve the safety 

and reliability of buses and paratransit services. 

On-demand services providing connectivity and 

last-mile services could work in conjunction with 

rail and other transit services, making traditional 

line-haul services more efficient. Automated 

vehicles providing last-mile services could also 

provide paratransit services for those with 

disabilities, and significantly lower the cost to 

transit agencies of operating paratransit. The 

ability to encourage carpooling by matching 

riders with similar trips could allow for low-cost 

use of automated vehicles, making it affordable 

for all.

Perhaps one of the greatest benefits of 

automated vehicles from a user perspective is 

time. The average American driver spends almost 

an hour each day driving. Automated driving 

could free up much of this time. 

By making driving more accessible and 

convenient, automated driving may increase the 

number of “drivers,” as well as the total number 

of miles driven. Automated vehicles could 

also make driving more accessible to people 

with disabilities, the young, and older adults. 

Currently, slightly more than two-thirds of the 

population is licensed to drive. Between 5 and 10 

million people do not drive due to disabilities. 

Automated vehicles may also change where 

people live and the distances they are willing to 

travel. This could lead to increased settlement of 

exurban areas and reductions in agricultural land 

and open space. Increased volumes of traffic 

could also increase the maintenance needs of 

infrastructure and offset efficiency gains, leading 

to increased emissions.

The impacts of automated vehicles will not 

be unique to passenger travel. Fully and 

partially automated trucks and vehicles at 

transfer facilities may transform the freight 

industry. Already, automated vehicles are 

being implemented in a variety of freight 

contexts—including transferring containers at 

shipping ports as well as harvesting corn and 

other crops. Partial automation, using radar 

and V2V communication would allow for truck 

platooning, leading to greater fuel efficiency 

without compromising on safety. In recent 

THE INSURANCE INSTITUTE FOR 

HIGHWAY SAFETY HAS ESTIMATED 

THAT IF ALL VEHICLES HAD FORWARD 

COLLISION AND LANE DEPARTURE 

WARNING, BLIND SPOT ASSIST, AND 

ADAPTIVE HEADLIGHTS ABOUT 1 IN 

3 FATAL CRASHES AND 1 IN 5 INJURY 

CRASHES COULD BE PREVENTED.

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES 

PROMISE A CONTINUUM OF 

VEHICLE AUTOMATION, FROM 

VEHICLES WITH NO ACTIVE CONTROL 

SYSTEMS TO SELF-DRIVING CARS.
HOW WE MOVE BETTER 84

tests, a two-truck platoon led to 10 percent fuel 

savings for the rear truck and 4.5 percent fuel 

savings for the lead truck. Low-speed, small-scale 

autonomous vehicles offer a potential last-mile 

solution for freight delivery in urban areas. 

Automated vehicles could change workforce 

needs in the freight industry. Partial automation 

could allow for remote operation of trucks and 

transfer facility vehicles, reducing the need for 

traditional, in-cab drivers. Advanced automation 

will increase productivity across the freight 

industry and shift the skillsets needed to work 

in the industry from manual labor to the more 

technical skills required for managing and 

maintaining automated fleets.

Despite the technical feasibility and potential 

benefits, there are a number of challenges to 

address to encourage widespread adoption of 

automated vehicles, including:

● High vehicle costs

● Public safety 

● Privacy concerns

● Unresolved regulatory and legal liability 

issues

● Security issues

Automated car features tend to be costly, at 

least initially, and will likely be first introduced 

to a luxury market. For example, Tesla recently 

released a software update that allowed their 

Model S cars to steer within a lane, change 

lanes using the turn signal, adjust vehicle speed, 

and parallel park on command. Widespread 

availability of automated vehicles may be delayed 

until costs come down. The operation of fleets 

of automated vehicles using car sharing and 

pooled ridesharing models, similar to Zipcar or 

Lyft, could drive down the costs of accessing 

automated vehicles.

Public agencies will also need to determine 

how to regulate automated vehicles to ensure 

their safety. New performance standards will 

be needed to ensure that highly automated 

systems operate safely and securely in a wide 

variety of road environments and conditions. 

Questions abound: How will automated vehicles 

be licensed? What will be the responsibilities of 

owners and operators of automated vehicles? 

How will liability be determined if an automated 

vehicle is in a crash? Will automated vehicles be 

vulnerable to cyber-attack due to their reliance 

on information systems and connectivity, or 

could they even be used as weapons? Finally, 

there is the question of how to manage data 

generated by automated vehicles. Drivers may 

have privacy concerns regarding the generation, 

ownership, and sharing of vehicle travel data. 

Recognizing the great potential benefits of highly 

automated vehicles, the federal government 

recently released a Federal Automated Vehicle 

Policy which sets out an ambitious approach to 

accelerate the deployment of such technologies. 

The remarkable speed with which increasingly 

complex, highly automated vehicles are 

evolving challenges the government to take 

new approaches that ensure these technologies 

are safely introduced, provide safety benefits 

today, and achieve their full safety potential in 

the future. The policy is intended to speed the 

delivery of an initial regulatory framework and 

provide guidance to states and manufacturers 

on the safe design, development, testing, and 

deployment of highly automated vehicles.

The policy outlines best practices for the safe 

pre-deployment design, development, and 

testing of highly automated vehicles prior to 

commercial sale or operation on public roads. In 

recent years, a growing number of states have 

passed legislation allowing for the testing and 

operation of automated vehicles on their roads. 
85 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Visions of an Automated Future

In recent years, a number of private companies and individuals have described their 

visions of how highly automated vehicles could transform transportation in the near 

future. 

Jon Zimmer, the co-founder of Lyft, sees fleets of self-driving vehicles providing ondemand transportation services in cities throughout the country within five years. Lyft 

believes that private car ownership among city dwellers will become obsolete within a 

decade. This transformation, they claim, will lead to a new era of city planning and land 

use, allowing cities to reclaim land dedicated to roads and parking for bike lanes and 

public plazas.

In his Master Plan for Tesla, Elon Musk envisions Tesla producing electric, self-driving, 

cars, trucks and buses that are 10 times safer than manually driven vehicles. He 

sees Tesla operating a fleet of on-demand self-driving vehicles, including accessible, 

automated shuttles in major cities. He believes personal ownership of automobiles will 

continue and that owners will make money by renting out their vehicles to others when 

they are not personally using them. 

Robin Chase, the co-founder of Zipcar, describes two possible futures: an undesirable 

future, where personal automated vehicle use and “zombie cars,” (cars driving 

around with no one in them) lead to increased congestion and emissions, millions of 

unemployed drivers, and deteriorating infrastructure; or, a desirable future, where car 

sharing and ridesharing models drive down costs, reduce congestion, and allow urban 

parking spaces to be repurposed as affordable housing, green space, and grocery 

stores. To achieve the desirable future, Chase suggests that regulators act proactively 

to promote shared-vehicle use, reduce incentives for “zombie cars, provide alternative 

incomes for unemployed drivers, and ensure that automated vehicles are electric. 

The policy provides guidance to states on their 

responsibilities concerning vehicle licensing and 

registration, traffic laws and enforcement, and 

motor vehicle insurance and liability regimes. 

The Policy also identifies the need for additional 

regulatory tools along with new expertise and 

research to allow NHTSA to more quickly address 

safety challenges and speed the responsible 

deployment of lifesaving technology. 

Widespread adoption of automated vehicles 

would have a transformative effect on nearly all 

aspects of transportation. Entire business models 

and professions would be created, transformed, 

or eliminated as robotic taxis and driverless 

freight become possible. The broader effects on 

society are subject to debate, with uncertainty 

surrounding whether automated vehicles will 

curtail or enable sprawling land use patterns. 
HOW WE MOVE BETTER 86

Many of these questions will not be answered 

until fully automated vehicles are commercially 

available and popular enough to prompt 

widespread adoption. 

TECHNOLOGY, SAFETY, AND 

SECURITY

While many emerging technologies could have 

major safety and security benefits when applied 

to transportation, in some cases they could also 

create new vulnerabilities. The safe operation of 

NextGen, positive train control, and intelligent 

transportation systems all depend on secure, 

reliable digital communication infrastructure and 

systems. Attacking a conventional train signal 

system requires actually being there in person—

but, in theory, a transportation control system 

that is connected to the Internet can be attacked 

from anywhere in the world. One teenager in 

Poland, for example, hacked into a tram system, 

causing multiple derailments. Frequent hacks 

into highway dynamic message signs are a more 

benign demonstration of the vulnerability of 

electronic systems. Preventing these attacks will 

be a major challenge for transportation agencies 

and service providers. 

There are also risks to a future where 

transportation services depend too heavily on 

access to GPS-reliant applications for operations. 

Disruptions to service can be created by weather 

events, demand overload, jamming and spoofing 

by hackers, and excess system demand. The 

government agencies responsible for GPS and 

the transportation firms and agencies that 

depend on those systems are considering ways 

to mitigate the risks of service disruptions. This 

may require making decisions on how best 

to maintain legacy navigation systems and 

capabilities, and/or building targeted backup 

systems.

Increasing automation of vehicles, vessels, trains, 

and aircraft can also result in diminishing ability 

and awareness among operators to respond to 

incidents when they occur. We have already seen 

several high profile incidents where overreliance 

on automation features has led to safety failures, 

such as the crash of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 

at San Francisco International Airport. Greater 

information flows from on-board or independent 

systems can also create distractions that 

increase the risk of operator error. Finally, 

the increasing complexity of automated and 

interconnected systems may make it more 

difficult for those responsible for the safety and 

security of these systems to detect defects or 

vulnerabilities in advance of potentially harmful 

events. 

While the net benefit of new technologies 

should lead to a safer, more efficient, and 

secure transportation system, significant effort 

and resources will be required to address the 

vulnerabilities raised by reliance on increasingly 

complex and interdependent systems. Ensuring 

the resilience, safety, and security of these 

systems will require a holistic consideration 

of issues across the transportation enterprise, 

from systems engineering, to risk management 

by system administrators, to training and 

certification of system operators. Greater 

cooperation between national governments 

will also be essential in combating breaches of 

security in transportation-related systems.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Continued success will require sustained 

public and private investment in transportation 

research and development activities. The federal 

government can play a key role in supporting 

and promoting innovation, and in keeping 

America on the forefront of new technologies. 

Federal funding invested in transportation 
87 BEYOND TRAFFIC

research has declined to 0.01 percent of GDP, 

down from a high of 0.07 percent in 1971. Such 

research has led to breakthroughs in automotive 

and aviation safety, such as connected vehicle 

technology and NextGen. It has also been 

instrumental in the advancement of alternative 

fuels technologies, the development of 

charging stations for electric vehicles, improved 

roadway designs and traffic controls that 

have saved countless lives, and more durable 

pavements that reduce the need for expensive 

reconstruction and repair of roads, bridges, and 

runways. By sponsoring research, the federal 

government allows us to understand and plan 

for the challenges facing us and to train the next 

generation of transportation professionals to 

help meet those challenges. Federally supported 

research can also help to ensure that the public 

and policymakers are kept fully informed of the 

potential benefits and risks of new technologies. 

Transportation innovation may be restricted 

by the traditionally slow pace of legislation and 

rulemaking. Rapidly evolving technology will 

demand government flexibility: regulations may 

be necessary, but to advance and encourage 

innovation, not prevent it. Government must also 

ensure the primacy of safety as new technologies 

are implemented. As innovations are developed, 

we will face new challenges in confronting 

the idea of what should, and should not, be 

regulated.

Public agencies assume many roles in their 

relationships with transportation technologies: 

from researchers to regulators, from users to 

developers. This requires a talented workforce, 

but attracting and keeping such a workforce 

presents major challenges. The evolving role 

of transportation agencies means that they 

must hire staff with expertise in entirely new 

disciplines. This requires recruiting and training 

for specific skills, or at least ensuring that 

contracts are written for these precise skills. It 

could be difficult for public agencies to develop 

these capabilities, since transportation agencies 

are not the only employers in the labor market, 

and wage competition for the best-qualified 

workers is already fierce, especially for indemand skill sets, such as software engineering.

● At the international level, the U.S. 

government will need to ensure that foreign 

governments do not erect regulations or 

product standards that set unfair barriers to 

trade for U.S. technology. Further, because 

of the competitive nature of international 

business, if the U.S. government seeks to 

maintain global leadership in developing 

these technologies and retain the 

employment opportunities associated with 

them, regulations and policies need to be 

structured in a way that facilitates industry 

growth. 

Policy decisions will undoubtedly shape the 

extent to which technology and data are 

continually incorporated into our already 

complex transportation systems. Decision 

makers may consider a variety of policy options, 

including:

● A regulatory framework that encourages innovation, rather than hinders it, and places 

a top priority on ensuring the safety of the 

overall transportation system.

● Fostering proactive engagement with those 

in technology-related industries to help the 

public sector anticipate future technology 

enhancements.

● Incentivizing a skilled transportation workforce that is increasingly competent in the 

fields of science, technology, engineering, 

and mathematics.
HOW WE MOVE BETTER 88

● Requiring that privacy and cybersecurity 

concerns are adequately addressed in the 

consideration and adoption of new technologies.

These policy options are explored in further 

depth in the conclusion of this report. 

References

Introduction

● Goldwyn, Eric. The Atlantic CityLab. “The Most 

Important Transportation Innovation of the 

Decade is the Smartphone.” September 4, 2014.

(http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/09/themost-important-transportation-innovation-of-thisdecade-is-the-smartphone/379525)

Breakthroughs in Tracking and 

Navigation

● National Research Council. Aeronautics and Space 

Engineering Board. 2014. Autonomy Research 

for Civil Aviation: Toward a New Era of Flight. 

(http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_

id=18815&page=R1)

● (DOD) Department of Defense, (DHS) Department 

of Homeland Security, and (DOT) Department of 

Transportation. 2012. 2012 Federal Radionavigation 

Plan. April. (http://www.navcen.uscg.gov/pdf/2012_

FRP_Final_Signed.pdf)

● GPS.GOV “Applications.” http://www.gps.gov/

applications/

An Era of Big Data

● Manyika, James, et. al. The McKinsey Global 

Institute. 2011. Big data: The next frontier for 

innovation, competitions, and productivity. June.

(http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/

dotcom/Insights%20and%20pubs/MGI/Research/

Technology%20and%20Innovation/Big%20Data/

MGI_big_data_full_report.ashx) 

● StreetBump.org, “About Street Bump” http://www.

streetbump.org/about

● Transportation Research Board. 2011. How We 

Travel: A Sustainable National Program for Travel 

Data (http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/sr/

sr304.pdf) 

● Roberts, David J. and Meghann Casanova, 

Automated License Plate Recognition Systems: 

Policy and Operational Guidance for Law 

Enforcement, U.S. Department of Justice, National 

Institute of Justice, 2012.

● Schweiger, Carol L. Open Data: Challenges and 

Opportunities for Transit Agencies. No. Project J-7, 

Topic SA-34. 2015.

Fast and Easy Payment

● Anagnostopoulos, C. “License plate recognition: 

A brief tutorial.” IEEE Intelligent Transportation 

Systems Magazine 6.1 (2014).

● First Data, “Transit Payment Systems: A Case for 

Open Payment.” May 2010. https://www.firstdata.

com/downloads/thought-leadership/transitpayment-systems_wp.pdf

There’s an App for That

● Nielsen. “Mobile Millennials: Over 85% of 

Generation Y Owns Smartphones.” News release. 

September 5, 2014.(http://www.nielsen.com/us/

en/insights/news/2014/mobile-millennials-over-85-

percent-of-generation-y-owns-smartphones.html)

● Smith, Aaron. U.S. Smartphone Use in 2015. 

Pew Research Center. April 1, 2015.http://www.

pewinternet.org/2015/04/01/chapter-one-aportrait-of-smartphone-ownership/ 

Figure: Real-Time Travelers

● Anderson, Monica and Aaron Smith, “The 

smartphone: An essential travel guide.” Pew 

Research Center. April 14, 2015 (http://www.

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/04/14/

smartphone-essential-travel-guide/)

Figure: Smartphone Use in 

Transportation by Age Group in 2014

● Anderson, Monica and Aaron Smith, “The 

smartphone: An essential travel guide.” 

Pew Research Center. April 14, 2015 (http://

www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/04/14 

smartphone-essential-travel-guide/)

3D Printing

● Janega, James. Chicago Tribune. “The ‘next frontier’ 

for 3D printing and additive manufacturing.” August 

25, 2014. (http://www.chicagotribune.com/bluesky/

originals/chi-wohlers-report-3d-printing-additivemanufacturing-bsi-20140822-story.html)
89 BEYOND TRAFFIC

● Manners-Bell, John and Ken Lyon. Supply Chain 

24/7. “The Implications of 3D Printing for the Global 

Logistics Industry.” January 23, 2014. (http://www.

supplychain247.com/article/the_implications_

of_3d_printing_for_the_global_logistics_industry) 

● The Economist. “3D Printing Scales Up.” 

September 7, 2013.(http://www.economist.com/

news/technology-quarterly/21584447-digitalmanufacturing-there-lot-hype-around-3d-printingit-fast)

● PricewaterhouseCoopers. 2014. 3D printing and 

the new shape of industrial manufacturing. (http://

www.pwc.se/sv_SE/se/verkstad/assets/3d-printingand-the-new-shape-of-industrial-manufacturing.

pdf)

Robotics and Automation

● (DOT) Department of Transportation. 2013. 

Research, Development, and Technology Strategic 

Plan. (http://www.rita.dot.gov/rdt/sites/rita.dot.gov.

rdt/files/rdt_strategic_plan_2013.pdf)

● Anderson, James M., et. al. RAND Corporation. 

2014. Autonomous Vehicle Technology: A Guide 

for Policymakers. (http://www.rand.org/content/

dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR400/RR443-1/

RAND_RR443-1.pdf)

● Lane, Sue, et. al. “Long-Term Bridge Performance 

(LTBP) Program Update.” Presentation at the 2014 

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting. 

January 16, 2014. (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/

multimedia/research/infrastructure/bridges/ltbp/

ltbp_wrkshp_01162014.pdf) 

Aviation

● Bin Salam, Sakib. Eno Center for Transportation. 

2012. NextGen: Aligning Costs, Benefits and Political 

Leadership. (https://enotrans.r.worldssl.net/wpcontent/uploads/wpsc/downloadables/NextGenpaper.pdf)

● (GAO) Government Accountability Office. 2013. 

NextGen Air Transportation System: FAA Has Made 

Some Progress in Midterm Implementation, but 

Ongoing Challenges Limit Expected Benefits..(http://

www.gao.gov/assets/660/653626.pdf)

● (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration. Performance 

Success Stories; “NextGen Saves the Day in Juneau.” 

October 2013. (https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/

snapshots/stories/?slide=10)

● (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration. NextGen; 

“Aviation’s Economic Impact.” (https://www.faa.gov/

nextgen/slides/?slide=2)

● (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration and The 

Tauri Group. 2012. Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A 

10-Year Forecast of Market Demand.(http://www.

spaceflorida.gov/docs/misc/srvs-10-year-forecastof-market-demand-report.pdf)

● (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration. 2013. U.S. 

Launch Sites and Spaceports. February. (https://

www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_

offices/ast/industry/media/Spaceport_Map_

Feb_2013.pdf)

● Walker, Lauren. Newsweek. “Drone Delivery for 

Amazon and Google Slowed by Headwinds.” 

October 7, 2014.(http://www.newsweek.com/willwind-be-end-commercial-drone-delivery-amazonand-google-275999)

● Pearce, Robert. “Presentation to the UAS COE Public 

Meeting.” Presentation of the NASA Aeronautics 

Research Mission. May 28, 2014.

● (http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/

headquarters_offices/ang/offices/management/

coe/media/pdf/UAS_COE_Briefing_Robert.pdf)

Figure: NextGen

● Whitaker, Michael. Federal Aviation Administration. 

“Delivering Efficiency with NextGen.” June 19, 2014. 

(http://www.faa.gov/news/speeches/news_story.

Figure: Unmanned Aircraft Systems

● Teal Group Corporation. “Teal Group Predicts 

Worldwide UAV Market Will Total $91 Billion in 

its 2014 UAV Market Profile and Forecast.” News 

release. July 17, 2014. (http://www.tealgroup.com/

index.php/about-teal-group-corporation/pressreleases/118-2014-uav-press-release) 

Marine Transportation

● (USCG) United States Coast Guard. “Local Notice 

to Mariners.”News release. March 19, 2014.(http://

www.navcen.uscg.gov/pdf/lnms/lnm11112014.pdf)

● Bulatao, Via, et. al. Port of Pittsburgh Commission. 

2003. SmartLock: Instrumented Locking System 

for Inland Waterway Navigation. (http://www.

port.pittsburgh.pa.us/Modules/ShowDocument.

aspx?documentid=560)

● Mozo, Maxwell R. CH2M HILL. The Future of 

Container Terminal Automation. May 16, 2013.

(http://aapa.files.cms-plus.com
HOW WE MOVE BETTER 90

Rail Transportation

● Peters, Jeffrey C., and John Frittelli. Congressional 

Research Service. 2012. Positive Train Control (PTC): 

Overview and Policy Issues.(http://www.purdue.

edu/research/gpri/publications/documents/Peters_

CRS_Report.pdf)

● Association of American Railroads. 2014. 

Positive Train Control..(https://www.aar.org/

BackgroundPapers/Positive%20Train%20Control.

pdf)

● (GAO) Government Accountability Office. 2013. 

Positive Train Control: Additional Authorities Could 

Benefit Implementation. (http://www.gao.gov/

assets/660/656975.pdf)

● Railway Technology Blog. “Top ten fastest trains in 

the world.” August 29, 2013.(http://www.railwaytechnology.com/features/feature-top-ten-fastesttrains-in-the-world)

Motor Vehicles

● (GAO) Government Accountability Office. 2013. 

Intelligent Transportation Systems: Vehicle-toVehicle Technologies Expected to Offer Safety 

Benefits, but a Variety of Deployment Challenges 

Exist. (http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/658709.pdf)

● (DOT) Department of Transportation. Connected 

Vehicle Applications; “Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) 

Communications for Safety.” (http://www.its.dot.

gov/safety/v2i_comm_safety.htm)

● (DOT) Department of Transportation. Intelligent 

Transportation Systems (ITS) Program Overview.

(http://www.its.dot.gov/factsheets/pdf/JPO-036%20

ITS%20OVERVIEW%20V5.5.1%20F.pdf)

● (NHTSA) National Highway Safety Administration. 

2008. National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation 

Survey. (http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/

pubs/811059.pdf)

Figure: Connected Vehicles

● Volpe, the National Transportation Systems Center. 

“Motor Vehicle Crash Avoidance.” (http://www.

volpe.dot.gov/content/infographic-motor-vehiclecrash-avoidance) 

Automated Vehicles

● Pinjari, Abdul Rawoof, et al. “Highway Capacity 

Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles: An Assessment,” 

Center for Urban Transportation Research. http://

www.automatedvehicleinstitute.org/pdf/TAVI_8-

CapacityPinjari.pd

● KPMG, Self-Driving Cars: Are We Ready, https://

www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndInsights/

ArticlesPublications/Documents/self-driving-carsare-we-ready.pdf

● Pedro Fernandes, and U. Nunes. “Multiplatooning 

Leaders Positioning and Cooperative Behavior 

Algorithms of Communicant Automated Vehicles 

for High Traffic Capacity.” IEEE Transactions 

on ITS (September 2014): 1-16, doi: 10.1109/

TITS.2014.2352858. (http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/

articleDetails.jsp?arnumber=6906280)

● Fagnant, Daniel J. and Kara M. Kockelman. Eno 

Center for Transportation. 2013. Preparing a 

Nation for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, 

Barriers, and Policy Recommendations. (https://

www.enotrans.org/wp-content/uploads/wpsc/

downloadables/AV-paper.pdf)

● Anderson, James M., et. al. RAND Corporation. 

2014. Autonomous Vehicle Technology: A Guide 

for Policymakers. (http://www.rand.org/content/

dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR400/RR443-1/

RAND_RR443-1.pdf)

● Cuadra, Alberto. The Washington Post. “Driver 

not required.” August 25, 2014. (http://apps.

washingtonpost.com/g/page/local/autonomouscars/1260) 

Technology, Safety, and Security

● The Royal Academy of Engineering. 2011. 

Global Navigation Space Systems: reliance 

and vulnerabilities.. (http://www.raeng.org.uk/

publications/reports/global-navigation-spacesystems) 

● Bayless, Steven H., Sean Murphy, and Anthony 

Shaw. Intelligent Transportation Society of America. 

Connected Vehicle Technology Scan Series, 2011-

2014. Connected Vehicle Assessment: Cybersecurity 

and Dependable Transportation. 

● Baker, Graeme. The Daily Telegraph. “Schoolboy 

hacks into city’s tram system.” January 11, 

2008.(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/

worldnews/1575293/Schoolboy-hacks-into-citystram-system.html)

● (NHTSA) National Highway Traffic Safety 

Administration. 2015. 2014 Crash Data Key 

Findings. (http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/

Pubs/812101.pdf)
91 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Policy Implications

● (OMB) Office of Management and Budget. The 

Budget; “Opportunity for All: The President’s Fiscal 

Year 2015 Budget.” (http://www.whitehouse.gov/

omb/budget)

● Transportation Research Board. 2014. Critical 

Issues in Transportation: 2013. (http://onlinepubs.

trb.org/Onlinepubs/general/criticalissues13.pdf)
HOW WE GROW ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL 92

HOW WE GROW 

ECONOMIC 

OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL

Introduction

Transportation not only connects us to the larger 

world but also shapes the corner of the world we 

inherit. Transportation is all too often thought 

of only as a means to an end—a method to get 

people or goods from one place to another. The 

system itself has been designed with this primary 

function in mind but not in every case with 

regard to the impacts of the infrastructure on the 

nation’s communities. 

Like other institutions in America, the 

development of the transportation system is 

colored by the same socioeconomic prejudices 

that defined us in the past. As a result, our 

transportation system is failing to meet 

the needs of all communities. All too often, 

infrastructure cuts through communities 

imposing obstructions and inconveniences, 

rather than connecting people to opportunities. 

Because of the legacy of infrastructure 

designed for those wealthy enough to own an 

automobile and fortunate enough to be ablebodied, too many Americans are shut out from 

opportunities. When a car breaks down and a 

family can’t replace it, when a loved one develops 

a disability and can no longer get around how 

they used to, or when walking or biking to 

school involves navigating a six-lane road with 

no sidewalks or bike lanes, opportunities—the 

opportunity to work, to participate in one’s 

community, to go to school, to live in good 

health—are lost. 

Infrastructure designed to serve the needs 

of some can limit the physical and economic 

mobility of others. When infrastructure is 

built without regard to place or community, 

urban highways sever a city, runway expansion 

displaces a neighborhood, crosswalks, bus stops 

and railroad crossings become an afterthought. 

For instance, an interstate overpass constructed 

with the intention of decreasing congestion 

could in turn lead to residents having to walk 

underneath a dark and dangerous underpass 

to get to the closest bus stop or the local job 

that was previously an open pathway. When 

communities lack a voice in the transportation 

planning process and infrastructure is 

designed with solely mobility in mind, a child’s 

neighborhood is divided by transportation 

infrastructure in a manner that segregates 

one area from another, personal connections 

are cut, local businesses lose their customers, 

opportunity is lost. 

These issues are not philosophical. Our 

transportation community must acknowledge 

its historical role in furthering opportunity gaps, 

and, as these gaps continue to grow, embrace its 

role in closing them.
93 BEYOND TRAFFIC

The Widening Gap

Our economy is recovering from a long recession. 

In 2016, the unemployment rate dipped below 

5 percent for the first time since early 2008 and 

median household income grew by more than 5 

percent between 2014 and 2015. 

Despite this good news, the recovery has been 

uneven, its benefits have been distributed 

unequally, and financial security remains a major 

concern for many American families. The top 

10 percent of income earning families now earn 

as much income as the remaining 90 percent 

combined. By this measure, income inequality—

the wealth gap between American families— 

has reached its highest level since the 1920s. 

Adjusting for inflation, the income of the average 

American is at nearly the same level as it was 30 

years ago. 

As income inequality grows, so too does the 

number of Americans living in poverty. Today, 

more than 46 million Americans live below the 

official poverty threshold, an increase of 15 

million since 2000. More than one in five children 

in America live in poverty.

Increasingly, low-income Americans are living 

in suburban areas, where they face higher 

transportation costs and longer commutes. 

Between 2000 and 2012, the number of poor 

people living in suburbs increased from 10 

million to 16.5 million. In some of largest 

metropolitan areas in our country more than 

3 in 4 individuals living in poverty live in the 

suburbs. Yet even as the number of people 

living in poverty in the suburbs has grown, high 

levels of poverty stubbornly persist in many 

urban neighborhoods, where gentrification is the 

exception to the rule. As a result, people with low 

incomes often face difficult tradeoffs, forgoing 

access to transit and jobs to escape crime, access 

to more affordable housing, or getting their kids 

into better schools in the suburbs.

Our transportation system and policies play an 

important role in providing access to economic 

opportunity and improving the quality of life of 

all Americans. Infrastructure design can connect 

communities, contributing to job creation, or it 

can create barriers, forcing job creators to invest 

somewhere else. 

Varying levels of government are compelled 

to examine whether infrastructure has indeed 

caused these pockets of disparity or whether 

they are merely correlated. In a time of rising 

economic inequality, the transportation sector 

must simultaneously recognize its legacy and 

work anew to knit a new, more inclusive fabric.

Income inequality is not just an issue of fairness 

or a cause for compassion, it affects us all, 

regardless of where we work or where we live. 

When such a large proportion of the American 

people are struggling to get into and stay in the 

middle class, the impacts are far-reaching. There 

is a link between high income inequality and 

slower overall economic growth. We know it can 

also lead to higher rates of crime, social unrest, 

and political instability. Inequality means fewer 

people can afford a good education, the car they 

need to get to an interview, or the childcare they 

need so that they can work. For too many, the 

American Dream is growing out of reach. 

Other than housing expenses, the cost of 

transportation is the largest cost to American 

families. The failure to keep up with the demands 

of a growing population and basic system 

maintenance and repairs forces individuals and 

families to spend more time and more money 

getting from place to place. At the same time, 

middle class wages are stagnating, and the 
HOW WE GROW ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL 94

number of Americans living in poverty is growing. 

When planned and designed the right way, 

investments in transportation can help to restore 

and revitalize underserved and disconnected 

communities by spurring development and 

creating local job and housing opportunities. 

Affordable, reliable, and convenient 

transportation options—in cities, suburbs, 

and rural areas—are critical to the millions of 

people who are trying to take advantage of the 

opportunities our nation affords.

A Legacy of 

Disenfranchisement and 

Underinvestment 

After James Robertson’s car died, he faced a 

dilemma. His home was in the city of Detroit and 

the factory he worked at was 23 miles away in 

the suburb of Rochester Hills. His $10.55/hour 

wage was better than working for the minimum 

wage but it was not enough for him to be able to 

afford to replace his car. After a 90-minute bus 

ride from his home, Mr. Robertson would still 

have to walk 7 more miles to get to work. The 

entire morning commute would take 4 1⁄2 hours. 

Getting home would be worse. After he finished 

his shift at 10 p.m., he would have to repeat 

his 7-mile walk to the bus stop to catch the last 

bus to Detroit at 1a.m. Upon return, the bus 

would make its final stop at the city line, leaving 

Mr. Robertson a 5-mile walk home. He would 

arrive home at 4 a.m. Mr. Robertson made this 

commute for five days a week for years, including 

in the middle of winter. 

What makes Mr. Robertson’s story exceptional 

is the remarkable faith, determination, and 

endurance he showed to make this his regular 

commute. Unfortunately, the dilemma he faced 

is all too common. Cutbacks in transit service 

have limited the transportation options available 

to low-income workers like Mr. Robertson, 

while jobs that are geographically spread 

outside of the main city’s business district and 

the decline of factory jobs have meant that 

many workers must travel farther to reach 

employment opportunities. Transit service is 

often not coordinated across municipalities and 

bus service may stop at the city line. Suburban 

transit services are frequently inadequate and 

infrequent, especially for those who work late in 

the evening or early in the morning. 

These issues have their roots in the ways we 

have built infrastructure and planned our 

communities—which in turn have been shaped 

by our society’s attitudes about where we live 

and how we get around. Over time, the way we 

have built our infrastructure—the routes we 

have chosen and the types of infrastructure we 

have prioritized—have shaped our country and 

our communities in ways that deeply affect our 

everyday lives and our relationships with one 

another. 

The construction of the interstate highway 

system, in Detroit and nearly every other major 

city in our nation, indelibly affected our society. 

In many cases, interstate routes were chosen 

based on areas where land costs were the lowest 

or where political resistance was weakest. In 

practice, this meant that urban interstates cut 

through low-income and minority communities 

more often than not. Done in coordination with 

urban renewal initiatives the construction of 

urban interstates was often used as a means to 

remove low-income housing, seen as slums or 

urban blight, to make way for new development. 

In fact, many of the communities destroyed by 

urban renewal and the construction of urban 

highways were once densely populated, vibrant, 

affordable, and accessible neighborhoods. 

In many cases, interstate routes were chosen 

based on areas where land costs were the lowest 
95 BEYOND TRAFFIC

or where political resistance was weakest. In 

practice, this meant that urban interstates cut 

through low-income and minority communities 

more often than not.

That the builders of highways failed to see or 

chose to ignore this fact was in some cases a 

matter of sheer racial prejudice, but more often 

it appears to have been the result of a focus 

on improving the mobility of cars to get from 

point a to point b and the failure to consider 

the points in between. Highway route choices 

were made without significant local input and 

without consideration for the impact of those 

highways on urban neighborhoods, which not 

only displaced more than a million individuals 

and businesses, but also reduced local land 

values, and erected lasting physical barriers 

that continue to divide neighborhoods today 

disconnecting them from opportunities. The 

interstate highway system promoted the 

development of suburban communities, which 

in many cases actively excluded people of color, 

facilitating white flight, reinforcing and increasing 

de facto racial segregation, and undermining 

the tax base of many urban communities and 

the ridership and profitability of regional transit 

systems. 

For all the mobility and safety benefits that the 

urban interstates provided, their construction 

is also an object lesson in what can happen 

IN MANY CASES, INTERSTATE 

ROUTES WERE CHOSEN BASED ON 

AREAS WHERE LAND COSTS WERE 

THE LOWEST OR WHERE POLITICAL 

RESISTANCE WAS WEAKEST. IN 

PRACTICE, THIS MEANT THAT URBAN 

INTERSTATES CUT THROUGH LOWINCOME AND MINORITY COMMUNITIES 

MORE OFTEN THAN NOT.
HOW WE GROW ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL 96

Seattle: A City Divided

Low-income and minority Americans suffered disproportionately from the 

destruction and division of neighborhoods that accompanied the construction 

of the urban interstates and urban renewal policies of the 1950s and 1960s. In 

Seattle, the construction of the I-5 Interstate through Seattle divided the city in half, 

destroyed thousands of homes, and divided neighborhoods—such as the blue 

collar neighborhood of Cascade. Residents opposing the highway at the time of its 

construction in the early 1960s argued for decking the highway and investing in transit 

to preserve neighborhood connectivity and support affordable transportation options. 

These debates continue today.

when we fail to consider the needs of local 

communities and prioritize the mobility of 

cars over all other values. Despite legislation 

and policy changes aimed at ensuring a 

comprehensive planning process and protecting 

underserved populations, many low-income 

and minority communities continue to live 

within the physical barriers that have made their 

communities less desirable for attracting jobs, 

neighborhood services, and a range of other 

stabilizing forces. Many also suffer from a legacy 

of underinvestment in affordable transportation 

options and barriers in the housing market. 

 

A number of factors continue to contribute to 

the marginalization of underserved communities 

from the transportation decision-making process, 

including a lack of political representation of 

underserved communities; a lack of diversity 

among transportation officials; inadequate 

public outreach and engagement in the planning 

process; and the systemic bias of traditional 

transportation policies and institutional 

structures. Policies that allow disproportionate 

investments in highways and political processes 

that lead to the underrepresentation of the 

interests of low-income communities have 

fostered increasing dispersion of populations 

and jobs, and reduced the efficiency and quality 

of service of affordable transportation services 

in low-income urban communities. Political 

processes influencing regional transportation 

decision making often favor suburbs and 

wealthier communities over urban and rural 

communities and low-income residents. 

For example, MPO boards, which are typically 

made up of elected officials and representatives 

from transportation agencies, are often 

structured in a way that overrepresent suburban 

interests. Urban populations are often 

underrepresented and rural and unincorporated 

areas may not be represented at all. The MPO 

that represents the planning area of greater 

Milwaukee, one of the most racially segregated 

regions of the country, is made up of 21 

representatives of whom only three represent 

the county of Milwaukee, where the city of 

Milwaukee is located. In recent years, the state of 

Wisconsin has shifted funding for transit projects 

to major highway expansion projects and 

faced lawsuits for failing to adequately address 

environmental justice issues. 

In 2006, a Brookings Institute study found 

that only 12 percent of the members of MPO 

boards were minorities while the population 
97 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Engaging Underserved Communities in Transportation Planning

Planning agencies seeking to enhance public input from underserved communities 

have employed a variety of methods including: 

● Establishing civic advisory committees made up of local residents; 

● Employing interpreters and posting key planning documents in multiple languages and in 

accessible formats; 

● Working closely with neighborhood community groups and disability advocacy groups to 

promote awareness and engagement; 

● Employing digital and mobile technologies to better communicate transportation projects and 

create remote engagement opportunities outside of traditional public meetings and hearings; 

and 

● Ensuring that minorities and transit-dependent individuals are appointed to leadership 

positions in transportation agencies. 

of minorities in those metropolitan areas was 

39 percent. Increasing participation of minority 

and low-income communities in MPOs and 

state department of transportation planning 

process is particularly important because they 

are the primary entities responsible for deciding 

how surface transportation funding is spent. 

State DOT’s, which control the majority of 

transportation funding, can face similar issues of 

underrepresentation and lack of diversity among 

those responsible for investment decisions. 

Federal regulations require that state DOTs 

and MPOs “seek out and consider the needs 

of those traditionally underserved by existing 

transportation systems” on federally funded 

projects. However, individuals from underserved 

groups often face linguistic, economic, and 

physical barriers that limit their engagement in 

public meetings and discourse, and they may be 

unaware of transportation proposals that could 

dramatically change their lives. 

As congestion grows, Americans are increasingly 

using transit and showing more interest in 

living in transit-rich neighborhoods. More and 

more Americans believe in the value that transit 

services have in attracting amenities, shortening 

commutes, and improving the quality of life 

of a neighborhood. This increased interest is 

contributing to development patterns where 

wealthier residents are moving into transit-rich 

neighborhoods, driving up rents, and displacing 

minority and low-income residents into less 

desirable areas with longer commutes and less 

access to social services. Gentrification can 

also drive down transit ridership as car-owning 

residents replace transit-dependent residents. 

One study of 42 neighborhoods found that in 

more than 70 percent of those neighborhoods 

automobile ownership actually increased after 

a rail transit station was built there. The positive 

impacts of transportation improvements should 

be felt by everyone. Transportation facilities 

should be built of, by, and for the communities 

served by them.

Low-income neighborhoods have more than 

double the fatality rate from traffic collisions as 

high-income neighborhoods. The reason can be 
HOW WE GROW ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL 98

Affordable Transportation for Affordable Neighborhoods

Many local and regional agencies have found ways to address this issue by developing 

comprehensive transit-oriented approaches to housing and transportation planning. 

As the Seattle region expands its rail transit system and housing costs rise across 

the region, King County is seeking to create a region where all households have 

an equitable opportunity to be connected to community by investing in affordable 

housing development near current and planned transit stations. By bonding against 

hotel tax revenues, the county plans to finance $87 million in projects that will create 

at least 700 units of affordable workforce housing in walkable, economically diverse 

neighborhoods over the next five years. 

traced, at least in part, to the lack of the basic 

infrastructure that wealthier communities often 

take for granted. American Housing Survey 

data show that many Americans lack adequate 

infrastructure to walk or bike safely in their 

neighborhoods. Overall, only 55 percent of 

households are in neighborhoods with adequate 

sidewalks and less than 15 percent have access 

to bike lanes. But these aggregate data mask 

severe disparities. For example, 89 percent of 

high-income neighborhoods have sidewalks while 

only 49 percent of low-income neighborhoods 

do. These disadvantaged areas also have less 

street lighting and fewer crosswalks. These 

disparities have major safety implications. For 

instance, Miami-Dade County’s low-income 

census tracts recorded 16.5 pedestrian deaths 

per 100,000 people, compared with a rate of 8.9 

for the rest of Miami-Dade. 

New transportation services such as bike-share 

systems and ride sourcing are at risk of repeating 

patterns of economic and racial inequities 

in transportation. For example, even though 

low-income workers are more likely to bike or 

walk to work, studies have shown that bikeshare stations are disproportionately located in 

wealthier, less-diverse neighborhoods. 

A Lack of Affordable 

Transportation Options

Access to affordable transportation choices is 

critical to the quality of life of all Americans. 

Middle- and low-income American households 

spend, on average, nearly 20 percent of their 

income on transportation and 41 percent on 

housing. Limited access to affordable housing 

near employment centers—or to affordable 

and reliable transportation options to and from 

employment centers—creates the high burden of 

transportation costs for many families. 

For example, owning a car is expensive, costing, 

on average, more than $6,000 per year. And if 

the car is old, and requires more maintenance 

and repair, that cost can go up. Households with 

annual incomes of less than $25,000 are seven 

times less likely to have a car than those with 

higher incomes. There are also racial disparities 

in access to vehicles; 19 percent of African 

American households and 11 percent of Hispanic 

households live without a car, compared to 

approximately 6 percent of white, non-Hispanic 

households. A recent study found that good 

drivers in predominantly African American 

neighborhoods pay, on average, 70 percent more 

for their car insurance than good drivers living in 
99 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Preventing Tragedies by Design

In 2010, Raquel Nelson’s four-year-old son was struck and killed by an impaired driver 

when her son escaped from her grasp as she tried to cross the street from the bus 

stop by her apartment in suburban Atlanta. Compounding this tragedy were charges 

of homicide against Ms. Nelson for recklessly “jaywalking.” The bus stop was located 

across the street from her apartment, but using the closest crosswalk would have 

required her to walk more than a half mile out of her way. Homicide charges against 

Ms. Nelson were eventually dropped, but her tragic story is revealing. Our roadway 

design, especially in growing suburban communities, is often unsafe for pedestrians.

neighborhoods where the residents are mostly 

white.

Transit can be an affordable option, and in fact, 

access to transit may be a determining factor 

guiding the housing choices of many low-income 

households in urban areas. But people who 

depend on transit still face long commutes and 

limited access to job opportunities. A study by 

the Brookings Institution found that the typical 

metropolitan resident can reach only about 30 

percent of jobs in their metropolitan area via 

transit in 90 minutes or less. In the suburbs, 

where the majority of Americans live, transit 

service is even less likely to provide adequate 

access to employment opportunities. The same 

study revealed that working-age residents in 

low-income suburban neighborhoods can reach 

only 4 percent of metropolitan jobs within a 

45-minute commute. Furthermore, low-income 

jobs disproportionately require workers to work 

nights or weekends, times during which public 

transit routes run much less frequently or not at 

all. 

Job accessibility has become even more difficult 

as employers have increasingly moved away 

from central business districts to suburban 

locations. A recent study found that in a majority 

of our largest metropolitan areas fewer jobs 

were within reach of a typical commute than 

there were 10 years ago. During this period, the 

number of jobs in proximity to minority and lowincome residents fell much more steeply than for 

white and middle class residents. As the share 

of workplaces in downtown areas has declined, 

it has become more challenging to connect 

workers to workplaces through transit.

Higher housing and transportation costs in 

many metropolitan areas have forced families to 

choose between more expensive housing closer 

to job centers or more affordable housing with 

longer commutes. It is rare to find affordable 

housing near job centers. At best, this is a choice 

between a greater drain on resources, or longer 

travel times. Lack of affordable transportation 

puts jobs, health or child care services, or an 

education out of reach. And, for many lowincome Americans, whether they are elderly and 

on a fixed income, or have a disability, there is no 

choice. 

Access to Opportunity in 

Rural and Tribal Communities

Eight million Americans in poor households live 

in rural areas and some of the highest rates 

of poverty in our country are concentrated 
HOW WE GROW ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL 100

Growing Suburban Poverty and the Challenge of Access

A growing number of poor families live in the suburbs. Many of these families face 

enormous transportation issues in accessing employment opportunities and critical 

services. To simply apply for a job across town in Atlanta, Lauren Scott, had to 

undertake an epic trip. After a day-care bus picked her daughter up from the homeless 

shelter, Ms. Scott began her trip to an industrial site that would have been 27 minutes 

away by car. Ms. Scott’s trip, however, involved 69 stops on a bus, a 9-minute train ride, 

an additional 49 stops on another bus, and a quarter mile walk. Her entire trip took 

two hours.

Ms. Scott’s journey for economic opportunity exemplifies the region’s challenge of the 

impoverished. Over time, metropolitan areas of the Deep South have instituted polices 

and altered real estate development that in turn has pushed the poor out of urban 

centers and thus further away from jobs. People with lower incomes have become 

more reliant on public transit which is of weak quality. A recent study found that in 

the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, 15 of the weakest 20 systems, with respect to 

system coverage and job access, were in the South – including Atlanta where Lauren 

Scott lives. 

in rural areas such as the Mississippi Delta, 

Appalachia, in Texas along the Mexican border, 

and on American Indian lands. Low-population 

densities and limited transportation options 

can make it difficult for low-income and 

unemployed individuals in rural areas to reach 

economic opportunities and essential services. 

Declining populations and tax revenues in 

some rural counties can make it difficult for 

local governments to maintain existing roads 

and bridges or preserve air and rail passenger 

services. 

While many in metropolitan areas face 

challenges using transit to reliably and 

conveniently access opportunities, in rural 

areas, few individuals have access to any transit 

at all. Only 11 percent of households in rural 

areas report having access to transit services, 

compared to 64 percent of households in 

metropolitan areas. Where rural transit services 

are provided, they can help to maintain the 

independence of senior citizens, meet the 

healthcare, childcare, and educational needs of 

families, and help low-income households get 

ahead by providing a reliable and affordable 

means of getting to work. 

Transportation investments can be a critical 

factor in whether a rural community thrives or 

declines. For example, while rural communities 

often rely on highways to access jobs, connect 

goods to markets, and attract tourism, when 

highways bypass small town centers, they can 

shift the economic activity in ways that are 

detrimental for some communities. One way to 

foster investment and economic development in 

rural areas is to ensure that rural communities 

have a voice in the transportation planning 

process and that street connectivity, bicycle 

and pedestrian facilities, and intercity bus and 

rail connections are considered when planning 
101 BEYOND TRAFFIC
HOW WE GROW ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL 102

The Revitalization of MacArthur Park

MacArthur Park, Los Angeles, is home to a majority Central American and Mexican 

immigrant community, many of whom have below-average incomes and rely heavily 

on public transit. When Los Angeles Metro proposed a major development around the 

MacArthur Park metro station, local community-based organizations and City Council 

members worked to ensure that the project included a significant affordable housing 

component, supported neighborhood small businesses, and provided public space 

for street vendors and cultural festivals. The project ultimately included more than 90 

affordable housing units and the neighboring park was transformed from a passive 

recreational space to an active public space filled with street vendors, informal soccer 

fields, and cultural celebrations. The participation of community-based organizations 

in an inclusive planning process helped to ensure that the project revitalized the 

neighborhood while benefiting the low-income Latino immigrant community living 

there.

transportation investments in rural areas as well 

as urban areas. For example, Washington State 

has invested federal transit funds in a publicprivate partnership to enhance intercity bus 

service that connects small towns and rural areas 

to regional centers and major cities.

Tribal areas, in particular, are home to some 

of the most underdeveloped and unsafe road 

networks in the United States. More than 5 

million American Indians and Alaskan Indians 

live in the United States and over half live in rural 

areas or small towns. The majority of the 140,000 

miles of public roadways owned and maintained 

by the Bureau of Indian Affairs or Indian tribes 

are unpaved. Approximately 24 percent of 

the more than 6,000 bridges are classified as 

deficient. American Indians face the highest 

rates of pedestrian injury and death per capita 

of any racial or ethnic group. Motor-vehiclerelated death rates for American Indians/Alaska 

Natives are more than twice that of the general 

population.

The unemployment rate of those living on Indian 

reservations is nearly 20 percent. Approximately 

23 percent of American Indian families live in 

households below the poverty line. 

Accessibility Challenges

People with disabilities face transportation 

challenges due to a lack of accessible 

transportation facilities and services and 

economic challenges that limit incomes. 

People with disabilities are more likely to 

be unemployed and live in poverty and face 

difficulties accessing affordable transportation 

options that meet their needs. According to a 

national survey, nearly 20 percent of people with 

disabilities say that inadequate transportation 

is a problem. The more severe the disability 

of the respondent was, the more serious were 

the reported transportation problems—more 

than one-third of people with severe disabilities 

say that inadequate transportation is a major 

problem. 
103 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Despite significant progress over the past 

decades, many transportation facilities are 

still not in compliance with Americans with 

Disabilities Act (ADA) rules regarding access. 

Nearly a third of transit stations are not yet ADA 

compliant and sidewalks throughout the country 

fail to meet ADA standards. Poorly designed or 

maintained facilities, such as unplowed sidewalks 

or misplaced curb cuts, can also limit the mobility 

of people with disabilities and increase safety 

risks. 

Lack of access to transportation makes it difficult 

for many to get to work, to obtain necessary 

medical services, or to participate fully with their 

communities—to shop, socialize, or participate 

in recreational or spiritual activities. As a result, 

many people with disabilities suffer economic 

challenges or experience social isolation due to 

the lack of safe, reliable, accessible transportation 

services and infrastructure. 

Growing Economic 

Segregation and Declining 

Social Mobility

As the middle class shrinks, so do middle class 

and mixed-income neighborhoods. A growing 

number of families now live in neighborhoods 

that are either very poor or very rich. Rising 

economic segregation means that an increasing 

number of poor households are located in 

distressed neighborhoods where they face 

challenges such as failing schools, high rates 

of crime, and inadequate access to services 

and jobs that make it harder for individuals 

and families to escape poverty. The pattern 

of growing concentration of poverty holds 

true for suburbs as well as cites. Suburban 

neighborhoods with poverty rates of 20 percent 

or higher are home to approximately 38 percent 

of poor residents and 53 percent of poor African 

American residents living in the suburbs. 

The concentration of poor households in 

distressed neighborhoods has reduced access 

to economic opportunity and stunted social 

mobility. Recent economic research has shown 

that children that grow up in areas with greater 

segregation, both by race and by income, are less 

likely than other children to earn more money 

than their parents did. 

As economic segregation and sprawling urban 

development goes up, economic opportunity 

and social mobility goes down. This is why 

transportation choices can make or break 
HOW WE GROW ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL 104

Safety Implications

While the number of people that die in motor vehicle crashes has declined in recent 

years—25 percent over the last decade—the declines are not seen among all segments 

of the population. For people 25 years old and older with less than a high school 

diploma, fatality rates have only increased over time. A number of contributing 

factors play into this, including the prevalence of older cars with fewer safety features, 

fewer trauma centers in poor and rural areas, and high pedestrian rates among poor 

communities. 

When crashes occur in rural areas, the critical timing of emergency response can 

mean the difference between life and death. Lack of technology in rural areas can also 

contribute as advanced crash notification may not be as readily available, cell phone 

service may be less reliable, and communication to additional emergency response 

may be difficult. Lack of sidewalks and prominent lighting along roadways can present 

dangerous situations for pedestrians and bicyclists. 

a family struggling to survive. Proximity to 

job centers is correlated with their likelihood 

of employment and the length of their job 

searches when unemployed. Researchers 

at Harvard University have also found that 

children showed less upward mobility if they 

grew up in neighborhoods where residents had 

longer commutes. They found that residents 

of sprawling cities with high levels of race and 

income segregation had less social mobility than 

their peers. A similar study found that residents 

of more sprawling metropolitan areas faced 

higher transportation costs, had higher obesity 

rates, and experienced less social mobility. These 

studies suggest that sprawling development 

patterns support racial and income segregation 

and reduce access to opportunities for lowincome families to get ahead. 

The development of sprawling American 

metropolitan areas with dispersed suburban 

populations is inextricably linked with 

the development of our transportation 

infrastructure. Massive investments in 

urban highways and beltways coupled with 

underinvestment in transit services have allowed 

regions to simply bypass poorer areas. For 

many living in our metropolitan areas, the lowincome neighborhoods where a large portion of 

the region’s population live, is just a place they 

drive by on the way to work. The highways have 

been in many ways, designed just for this very 

purpose. 

As the range of costs of sprawl and autodependency become apparent—time lost in 

congestion, soaring rates of obesity, rising costs 

of maintaining existing infrastructure, and 

increasing inequality—societal attitudes are again 

changing. More and more people want to live in 

walkable, livable communities—integrated areas 

rich in amenities and transportation choices. 

Regions experiencing this change in attitudes are 

now faced with the challenge of improving the 

livability of cities while ensuring the affordability 

of traditional low-income and minority 

communities—so that those that suffered from 

decades of underinvestment and neglect aren’t 

now pushed aside by rising costs of living. 
105 BEYOND TRAFFIC

This represents a new challenge for many 

planners, but it should not be overstated. For 

all the attention it gets, incidence of actual 

gentrification where a low-income neighborhood 

becomes significantly wealthier remain a 

relatively rare phenomenon. Many cities are 

still struggling to find ways to make urban 

neighborhoods attractive, desirable places 

to live and work. Yet as society’s attitudes 

about where we live and how we get around 

slowly change, planners, policymakers, and 

entrepreneurs are finding ways to adapt and 

develop our infrastructure to support the more 

integrated, equitable, affordable, and accessible 

communities that many desire. 

Policy Implications

Transportation investments can help to close 

the opportunity gap by creating jobs, catalyzing 

economic development, saving individuals money 

and time, and improving access to economic and 

educational opportunities. Yet transportation 

policy is often an overlooked instrument to 

address issues of income inequality and poverty. 

Previous generations of poverty reduction 

strategies often focused on changing the 

conditions within distressed areas by renovating 

buildings, delivering services, or organizing 

residents to work collectively. However, 

increasingly, scholars and practitioners are 

recognizing that many services and opportunities 

that are needed for distressed communities 

are located outside their neighborhoods, 

necessitating better ways to connect residents 

to those services. For example, few Americans 

today work in the same neighborhoods where 

they live. When these issues are not considered 

in the transportation planning process, it is often 

the poorest and most disadvantaged that suffer 

the consequences.

As income inequality and economic segregation 

grows, connecting all Americans to economic 

opportunity will require a departure from 

business as usual. Creating a more just and 

equitable transportation system means 

considering equity issues in a wide range of 

transportation policies, from roadway design 

that accommodates diverse users to coordinated 

planning decisions that prioritize housing 

and transportation needs of underserved 

communities, to innovative approaches that 

leverage technology to better understand and 

meet the transportation needs of the working 

poor.

As trends continue to show the majority of 

population and employment growth occurring 

in suburbs, traditional transit investments are 

becoming an increasingly inadequate solution 

to connect low-income residents to quality 

housing and employment opportunities. For 

people who rely on public transportation, 

commuting to and from the suburbs can be 

costly and time consuming. For many poor 

families and individuals, access to an automobile 

for personal use could vastly increase their 

access to job and educational opportunities, 

their choice of neighborhoods to live in, and, 

ultimately, the likelihood that they or their 

children might escape poverty. Policies that 

reduce barriers to credit, subsidize membership 

in car-share services, or change welfare eligibility 

requirements regarding car ownership could 

improve access to automobiles for low-income 

residents. These policies are not without 

controversy, as some argue that they would 

contribute to increased congestion and pollution; 

however, they may be relatively inexpensive 

compared to investments in transit and more 

effective in reaching jobs and low-income 

residents increasingly located beyond the range 

of convenient transit services.
HOW WE GROW ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL 106

Building Ladders of Opportunity

Together, we can address the opportunity gap and build a stronger and more 

connected nation, a healthier economy, and more vibrant communities. The U.S. DOT 

is leading the way through its Ladders of Opportunity initiatives. These include:

● U.S. DOT’s Local Hire Initiative—A pilot program to allow recipients of federal highway and 

transit grants to give hiring preference to local residents, low-income workers, and veterans.

● Cross-Modal Connectivity Research—The U.S. DOT is using transportation research dollars to 

make data on job connectivity and environmental justice available to the public.

● Ladders of Opportunity Bus and Bus Facilities Grant Program—A $100 million program to 

ensure that federal grants for transit help to connect Americans with mobility disadvantages 

to jobs.

● Improving Coordination and Participation in the Planning Process—Through research, 

guidance, and technical assistance, the U.S. DOT is taking steps to ensure that the 

transportation planning process considers the needs and voices of disadvantaged 

populations and economically distressed communities.

● LadderSTEP—The Transportation Empowerment Pilot has provided targeted technical 

assistance to seven cities to build Ladders of Opportunity.

● Every Place Counts Design Challenge—The Challenge calls on local officials to reimagine 

existing transportation projects to empower communities to reconnect people and 

neighborhoods to opportunity.

Emerging technologies may also help 

public agencies better meet mobility needs. 

Today, many of the most innovative models 

that leverage technology to serve urban 

transportation needs, such as ride sourcing, 

car sharing, and bike sharing, bypass lowincome and minority communities. Yet it may 

be possible to utilize these and other emerging 

transportation technologies to better serve these 

communities. Boston, for example, is using social 

media outreach tools to engage low-income 

communities in the transportation planning 

process. In San Francisco, BART is partnering with 

ride-sourcing companies to provide first-mile and 

last-mile connections to connect underserved 

neighborhoods to job opportunities. Researchers 

are also looking at ways to make better use of 

big data to better understand transportation 

needs and improve the design, operation, 

and coordination of transportation and social 

services.

Increased transportation investment can help 

create jobs for low- and middle-income workers. 

In metropolitan areas that have historically 

underinvested in transit, investments in rail 

and bus services that connect low-income 

neighborhoods to job centers can greatly 

improve the prospects for residents of those 

communities while supporting economic 

development. Investments may include 

expanding the transit system to afford greater 

access or increasing the reliability, quality, and 

frequency of service to shorten travel times and 
107 BEYOND TRAFFIC

make getting to work and other services more 

convenient and accessible. To support increased 

transit investments, policy makers could reduce 

funding siloes that lead to more than 80 percent 

of state and federal surface transportation 

funding being dedicated to highways. In addition, 

lawmakers could build upon pilot efforts to 

blend federal funds between housing and 

transportation elements that currently segregate 

funds. To ensure that transportation investments 

are made equitably across regions, MPOs could 

subject their transportation plans to rigorous 

equity analysis and seek to measure the impact 

of transportation capital programs on access to 

economic opportunity. 

It should go without saying that transportation 

projects should benefit the residents that live 

nearby. But often the majority of transportation 

benefits go to those just passing through. To 

ensure that transportation investments benefit 

the neighborhoods in which they are built, more 

should be done to ensure that those investments 

provide access to employment opportunities 

for local residents. This includes planning 

transportation projects to connect residents to 

job centers. It also means ensuring that local 

residents are given a fair shot at the construction 

jobs created by transportation investments.

Improved coordination of transportation, 

housing, and land-use policies can help 

to address declining access to economic 

opportunity for low-income workers. Investments 

in transit can be made in coordination with 

policies that encourage the maintenance 

and development of affordable housing and 

the location of job centers along new and 

enhanced transit corridors. Public-private 

partnerships in support of transit-oriented 

development could help to increase the amount 

of affordable housing with access to transit. 

Federal transportation funding policies could be 

established that disincentivize investments in 

highway capacity expansion that contribute to 

greater job sprawl and economic segregation. 

By addressing rising inequality and promoting 

equal opportunity, transportation policies can 

restore the economic health of disadvantaged 

communities and increasing the quality of life 

and social mobility of individuals and families, 

they can also strengthen national economic 

growth to the benefit of all Americans.

References

Introduction

● Chetty, Raj, et al. “Where is the Land of 

Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational 

Mobility in the U.S.” 2014. (http://equalityof opportunity.org/images/Geography%20

Executive%20Summary%20and%20Memo%20

January%202014.pdf)

● Julia Markovich and Karen Lucas. “The Social and 

Distributional Impact of Transport. A Literature 

Review.” (2012) Transport Studies Unit School of 

Geography and the Environment. http://www.tsu.

ox.ac.uk/pubs/1055-markovich-lucas.pdf 

The High Costs of Access

● Barbara Lipman, “A Heavy Load: The Combined 

Housing and Transportation Burdens of Working 

Families” (2006) Center for Housing Policy, (http://

www.nhc.org/media/documents/pub_heavy_

load_10_06.pdf)

● Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Expenditure 

Survey 2014: Table 2301” (http://www.bls.gov/

cex/2014/combined/higherincome.pdf)

● U.S. DOT, “Transportation Connectivity”, April 27, 

2015, (https://cms.dot.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/

docs/Transportation%20Connectivity%20Read%20

Ahead%20Paper.pdf)

● Latiner, Bill, “Heart and sole: Detroiter walks 

21 miles in work commute.” Detroit Free Press, 

February 10, 2015. (http://www.freep.com/story/

news/local/michigan/oakland/2015/01/31/detroitcommuting-troy-rochester-hills-smart-ddot-ubsbanker-woodward-buses-transit/22660785/)
HOW WE GROW ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL 108

Figure: American Household Spending 

on Transportation

● Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Expenditure 

Survey 2014: Table 2301” (http://www.bls.gov/

cex/2014/combined/higherincome.pdf)

Suburbanization of Jobs and Poverty

● Evelyn Blumenberg and Asha Weinstein Agrawal, 

“Getting Around When You’re Just Getting By: 

Transportation Survival Strategies of the Poor,” 

(2011) (http://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=1092356)

● Kneebone, Elizabeth, “The Growth and Spread of 

Concentrated Poverty, 2000 to 2008-2012” (2014) 

Brookings Institution. http://www.brookings.edu/

research/interactives/2014/concentrated-poverty#/

M10420

● Elizabeth Kneebone, Job Sprawl Revisited: The 

Changing Geography of Metropolitan Employment 

(2009), Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings 

Institute. Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings 

Institute.

● Elizabeth Kneebone and Emily Garr, “The 

Suburbanization of Poverty: Trends in Metropolitan 

America, 2000 to 2009” (2010) Metropolitan 

Policy Program, Brookings Institute. (http://

www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/

reports/2009/4/06-job-sprawl-kneebone/20090406_

jobsprawl_kneebone.pdf)

● Kneebone, Elizabeth and Natalie Holmes, “The 

growing distance between people and jobs in 

metropolitan America.” (2015) Brookings Institution. 

(http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/

files/reports/2015/03/24-job-proximity/srvy_

jobsproximity.pdf)

● Harlan, Chico, “A Lonely Road” Washington Post, 

December 28, 2015, (http://www.washingtonpost.

com/sf/business/2015/12/28/deep-south-4/)

● Stephen Raphael and Michael A. Stoll, “Job Sprawl 

and the Suburbanization of Poverty,” (2010) 

Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings Institute, 

(https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/

research/pdf/p60.pdf)

● Adie Tomer, Elizabeth Kneebone, Robert Puentes, 

and Alan Berube, “Missed Opportunity: Transit 

and Jobs in Metropolitan America,” (2011), 

Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings Institute. 

(http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/

reports/2011/5/12-jobs-and-transit/0512_jobs_

transit.pdf)

● Kneebone, Elizabeth, “Job Sprawl Stalls: The Great 

Recession and Metropolitan Employment Location” 

Brookings Institution (2013) https://www.brookings.

edu/research/job-sprawl-stalls-the-great-recessionand-metropolitan-employment-location/

● Confronting Poverty in America, “Suburban Poverty 

Data Tables.” http://confrontingsuburbanpoverty.

org/action-toolkit/top-100-us-metros/

Meeting the Transportation Needs of 

Rural Communities

● American Public Transportation Association, Rural 

Communities Expanding Horizons, (2012) http://

www.apta.com/resources/reportsandpublications/

Documents/Rural-Communities-APTA-White-Paper.

pdf

● Shoup, Lilly and Becca Homa, “Principles for 

Improving Transportation Options in Rural and 

Small Town Communities,” (2010) Transportation 

for America. http://t4america.org/wp-content/

uploads/2010/03/T4-Whitepaper-Rural-and-SmallTown-Communities.pdf

Tribal Transportation Needs

● National Congress for American Indians, “Tribes 

and Transportation” (2013). http://www.ncai.org/

attachments/PolicyPaper

● Herrera, R. Transit-Oriented Development and 

Equity in Latino Neighborhoods: A Comparative 

Case Study of MacArthur Park (Los Angeles) and 

Fruitvale (Oakland). NITC-RR-544. Portland, OR: 

Transportation Research and Education Center 

(TREC), 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.15760/trec.58

A Seat at the Table

● Sanchez, Thomas, “An Inherent Bias? Geographic 

and Racial-Ethnic Patterns of Metropolitan Planning 

Organization Boards,” (2006) Brookings Institution, 

https://www.brookings.edu/research/an-inherentbias-geographic-and-racial-ethnic-patterns-ofmetropolitan-planning-organization-boards/

A Legacy of Displacement

● Grunwald, Michael, “Overpasses: A love story” 

Politico, July 22, 2015, http://www.politico.

com/agenda/story/2015/07/transportationinfrastructure-scott-walker-highways-000153
109 BEYOND TRAFFIC

● David Karas, “Highway to Inequity: The Disparate 

Impact of the Interstate Highway System on Poor 

and Minority Communities in American Cities” 

(2015). University of Delaware. https://nvpajournal.

files.wordpress.com/2015/05/nvpa_karas.pdf 

● Mohl, RA, “The Interstates and the Cities: Highways, 

Housing, and the Freeway Revolt.” Poverty and 

Race Research Action Council, 2002.

● Gary T. Schwartz. “Urban Freeways and the 

Interstate System” (1976). Southern California 

Law Review. http://www.law.du.edu/documents/

transportation-law-journal/past-issues/v08/urbanfreeways.pdf 

Figure: Displaced Houses

● U.S. DOT Volpe Center Analysis, Various Sources

The Results of Underinvestment

● Maciag, Mike. “Pedestrians Dying at 

Disproportionate Rates in America’s Poorer 

Neighborhoods.” Governing. August 2014. http://

www.governing.com/topics/public-justice-safety/

gov-pedestrian-deaths-analysis.html

● Gibbs K, Slater SJ, Nicholson N, Barker DC, and 

Chaloupka FJ. Income Disparities in Street Features 

that Encourage Walking – A BTG Research Brief. 

Chicago, IL: Bridging the Gap Program, Health 

Policy Center, Institute for Health Research and 

Policy, University of Illinois at Chicago, 2012. http://

www.bridgingthegapresearch.org/_asset/02fpi3/

btg_street_wal kability_FINAL_03-09-12.pdf

● Jaffe, Eric. “Yet More Evidence Bike-Share Isn’t 

Reaching the Poor” CityLab, January 19, 2016. 

http://www.citylab.com/politics/2016/01/bikeshare-poor-equity-transit/424656/

● Jaffe, Eric. “The Poor Bike, the Rich Bike-Share” 

CityLab, October 30, 2015, http://www.citylab.com/

commute/2015/10/the-poor-bike-the-rich-bikeshare/413119/

Accessible Transportation for All

● Harris Interactive, “The ADA, 20 Years Later” (2010) 

Kessler Foundation and National Organization on 

Disability http://www.2010disabilitysurveys.org/

pdfs/surveyresults.pdf

● Field, Marilyn J., Alan M. Jette, and Institute of 

Medicine (US) Committee on Disability in America. 

“Transportation Patterns and Problems of People 

with Disabilities.” (2007).

Development without Displacement

● Pollack, Stephanie, et al., “Maintaining Diversity 

in America’s Transit-Rich Neighborhoods: Tools 

for Equitable Neighborhood Change, Dukakis 

Center for Urban and Regional Policy, http://www.

northeastern.edu/dukakiscenter/transportation/

transit-oriented-development/maintainingdiversity-in-americas-transit-rich-neighborhoods/ 

and Transportation” (2013). http://www.ncai.org/

attachments/PolicyPaper_
HOW WE ALIGN DECISIONS AND DOLLARS 110

HOW WE ALIGN 

DECISIONS AND DOLLARS

Introduction

When a bridge collapses, highway traffic stalls, 

or a tragedy occurs on a major transit line, 

Americans wonder not only what went wrong but 

whom to hold responsible. When a major road 

project takes years to build or the funding for a 

new project falls apart, Americans lack a clear 

line of accountability. Every level of government 

depends on others to ensure the effectiveness of 

the entire system.

The transportation decisions we need to make—

to plan, fund, and build infrastructure, to safely 

operate our national airspace system, and to 

make our trains and buses run—have become 

increasingly complex. These decisions often 

require coordination across multiple government 

agencies and with the private sector, and this 

coordination often takes a lot of time. For 

example, building a new airport runway can 

easily take more than a decade: such a project 

requires planning and public meetings, billions 

of dollars of funding, financing from an array 

of sources at every level of government, an 

extensive environmental review, and permits 

from multiple federal and state agencies.

In the future, as metropolitan populations grow, 

and our economy expands and technology 

changes, it is likely that transportation 

decisionmaking will only become more complex 

and infrastructure will grow more costly. To 

respond to these trends—to make it possible 

for projects to be carried out despite increasing 

complexity—governments will need to become 

smarter and more innovative. They will need 

to adopt strategies and technologies that allow 

them to improve coordination, streamline 

processes, increase efficiency and accountability, 

and make the best possible use of time and 

money. The future calls for more resourceful, 

responsive, and adaptive governance that can 

meet emerging challenges, and that can build 

and sustain a transportation system that meets 

the needs of current and future generations. 

Planning a surface transportation project can 

be a complex and time-consuming process; 

major projects can easily take more than a 

decade to move from conception to completion. 

For instance, federally funded transportation 

projects must be identified through a federally 

certified state or regional transportation planning 

process. If a project might have a significant 

impact on the environment then it must go 

through an environmental review process. 

The environmental review process allows 

transportation officials to make project decisions 

that balance engineering and transportation 

needs with social, economic, and natural 

environmental factors. During the process, a 

wide range of partners, including the public, 

businesses, interest groups, and agencies at all 

levels of government provide input into project 

and environmental decisions. It can take major 

projects three years or more to go through the 

environmental review process. 
111 BEYOND TRAFFIC
HOW WE ALIGN DECISIONS AND DOLLARS 112

This chapter describes how the transportation 

system is financed and governed, and concludes 

with policy options to address finance and 

governance considerations going forward. 

What role do we expect the various levels of 

government to play in ensuring the performance 

of our transportation system? How do we 

fund those different governmental agencies 

to perform those roles? How can we optimize 

transportation decision making to reduce 

inefficiency and overlapping authorities while 

still meeting varied local, regional, and national 

transportation needs? What role should the 

private sector play? These questions are often 

subject to fierce debates that we do not intend 

to resolve here. Instead, this chapter lays out in 

broad terms some of the trends underlying those 

debates and seeks to identify possibilities for 

change in the future. 

The Evolving Role of 

Government 

The federal government and state and local 

governments and authorities each have distinct 

and evolving roles to play in supporting our 

transportation system. Federal involvement in 

transportation has evolved to address a core 

set of concerns. First, federal transportation 

programs allow for coordination across 

jurisdictions at a national scale to ensure 

consistent standards, interconnectivity of 

facilities, and sufficient investment in nationally 

beneficial infrastructure. Second, the federal 

government is uniquely positioned to raise 

funds and to spread the financial burden of 

supporting costly and critical transportation 

services. Finally, the federal government can 

promote national objectives, such as national 

security, environmental sustainability, economic 

expansion, and social welfare and equity.

Of course, as the history of transportation 

governance demonstrates, there are limits 

to federal power and effectiveness. Battles 

over limited resources, whether between 

southern and northern states, or urban and 

rural areas, have often divided Congress and 

limited federal support for initiatives that 

provided distinctly regional benefits. This holds 

true across all modes of transportation. The 

first transcontinental railroad was delayed as 

Congress debated whether the route should 

pass through free or slave states; today, part of 

the debate over federal transit and intercity rail 

funding is over their limited regional applications. 

In fact, some federal transportation programs 

allocate resources to areas with less demand 

that are less able to pay for the full value of a 

particular service, in order to ensure that those 

areas maintain access to transit, rail, or aviation 

services.

As the transportation system has grown 

and become more complex, the federal role 

has changed as well. Federal support for 

transportation modes has created constituents 

with a distinct interest in preserving federal 

support, even while some have promoted more 

devolution of authority to state and local levels. 

In addition to these challenges, governments 

at all levels face challenges coordinating across 

modes and jurisdictions, generating sufficient 

revenues to maintain performance, and 

efficiently allocating resources.

The federal role varies greatly by the type of 

transportation it supports. Highways are funded 

by a mix of federal, state, and local funds, but 

the federal government owns and maintains 

only a small portion of our nation’s roads, and 

most decisions about where and how to invest 

in transportation are made by state and regional 

governments. Transit agencies are mostly local 

and regional organizations funded through a 
113 BEYOND TRAFFIC

STATE OF REPAIR

To compete in the global economy, the U.S. needs a

world-class transportation system. Some of our most 

critical transportation infrastructure is crumbling. 

of U.S. roads are in less than good 

condition

of U.S. bridges need signiÞcant

of U.S. locks and chambers are

more than 50 years old

23% 

50%

58% 
HOW WE ALIGN DECISIONS AND DOLLARS 114

mix of fare box revenues and government 

subsidies. Railroads, on the other hand, 

are privately owned and operated, with the 

notable exception of Amtrak. Our air traffic 

control system is operated by the federal 

government, while airports are typically 

locally run authorities. 

Coordinating Decisions

Decentralization of decision making can help 

to ensure investment in projects that local 

residents value. In the 1960s and 1970s, 

some local citizens and city governments 

protested against a highway planning 

process that was largely controlled by state 

highway engineers. At its peak in 1960s, 

federally funded construction of highways 

demolished tens of thousands of housing 

units each year, the majority in low-income 

and minority communities. The highway 

revolts demonstrate how centralized 

decisionmaking can lead to decisions that 

disregard local concerns and cause harm to 

local communities. 

Today, federally mandated planning 

and environmental review processes 

are designed to ensure that community 

stakeholders have a voice in the 

transportation decisionmaking process. 

However, these same processes are often 

blamed for slowing or preventing the 

delivery of needed transportation projects 

and driving up transportation costs. It 

can take more than a decade to complete 

the planning and environmental review 

process for an infrastructure project such 

as a new runway, as such projects require 

comprehensive study and coordination 

across multiple jurisdictions and public 

agencies.

OVERVIEW OF THE

TRANSPORTATION 

PLANNING PROCESS

Regional Vision 

and Goals

Alternate Improvement

Strategies

Evaluations &

Prioritization of

Strategies

Development of 

Transportation Plan 

(LRP)

Development of 

Transportation 

Improvement Programs

(S/TIP)

Project Development

Systems Operations

(Implementation)

Monitor System 

Permormance (Data)

OPERATIONS CAPITAL

CRITICAL FACTORS AND INPUT

S

CRITICAL FACTORS AND INPUT

S
115 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Obstacles to Metropolitan Planning: The Challenge of 

Coordination Across Boundaries

The challenges of interagency coordination are especially pronounced in Florida, 

where a large number of county-based MPOs, transit operators, airports, seaports, 

and toll authorities share responsibility for the transportation network. This 

governance structure means that groups of agencies make joint decisions for regions 

that might be better served by a single regional planning entity. In light of this fact, 22 

of the state’s 26 MPOs have entered into formal partnerships to coordinate regional 

transportation planning activities. In the Tampa Bay Area, seven regional planning 

organizations have formed the West Central Florida MPO Chairs Coordinating 

Committee (CCC) to collaboratively address the region’s transportation needs. 

While alliances like these exist to reconcile local goals and streamline collaborative 

decisionmaking, interagency coordination often adds a costly and time-consuming 

layer to the transportation planning process. When not done effectively, this approach 

can result in project delays, poor public involvement, inefficient investments, and a 

confused decision-making process. 

As local responsibility over transportation 

decisionmaking has increased, and the number 

of local governments and independent 

authorities has grown, the coordination 

of transportation programs has become 

increasingly difficult. The federal government 

provides funding for transportation and sets 

policies and goals that serve to guide investments 

of federal funding, but it does not take a direct 

role in land-use decisions. Instead a large 

number of organizations share authority over 

surface transportation and land-use decisions, 

including state agencies, municipal governments, 

metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), 

port authorities, transit operators, the business 

community, and others, all of which have various 

ownership, operations, and planning authorities 

that affect the transportation network.

This multilayered decision-making process 

can pose challenges for efficient network 

development and require time-consuming 

interagency coordination. As metropolitan areas 

continue to expand and responsibilities for 

planning, financing, permitting, constructing, 

and operating infrastructure become more and 

more fragmented, it has become increasingly 

difficult to reconcile local goals while ensuring 

transportation investments are efficient at 

a regional level. The necessary process of 

developing a consensus among numerous 

transportation agencies, local governments, and 

community stakeholder groups with varying 

objectives often leads to delays and inefficiencies 

in delivering projects. 

For example, roads that are part of the 

Interstate Highway System are subject to certain 

standards and are usually maintained by a 

state DOT. County or city streets are designed, 

operated, and maintained by counties or local 

municipalities. Transit systems are often built, 

operated, and maintained by a separate entity. 

In metropolitan areas, the MPO is responsible for 

actively seeking the participation of all relevant 

agencies and stakeholders in the planning 
HOW WE ALIGN DECISIONS AND DOLLARS 116

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Federal

State and Local

Highways

Transit

Avaiation

Maritime

46.3 118.3

20.0

52.9

9.5

16.0

4.2

15.508

Billions of 2014 Dollars

Total Federal, State and Local 

Transportation Funding

FOLLOWING THE EXPIRATION 

OF A MULTI-YEAR FUNDING BILL 

IN 2007 FOR THE FAA’S LONGTERM AUTHORIZATION, THE FAA 

WAS FUNDED BY 23 SHORTTERM EXTENSIONS BEFORE 

CONGRESS PASSED A MULTIYEAR AUTHORIZATION IN 2012.

process; similarly, the state DOT is typically 

responsible for activities outside metropolitan 

areas. 

Increasingly, metropolitan areas are the locus 

for the vast majority of our nation’s economic 

and population growth. MPOs are responsible 

for planning transportation investments in these 

areas and to do so they must coordinate with 

state DOTs as well as local transit operators, 

development agencies, local governments, 

environmental resource agencies, tribal 

governments, ports, airports, and railways within 

their boundaries. But addressing issues like air 

pollution and traffic congestion often requires 

coordinating across jurisdictions to achieve 

regional transportation planning solutions. As 

metropolitan areas grow in size and population, 

traditional jurisdictional boundaries are 

becoming blurred. This increases the impetus for 

regional cooperation across planning agencies to 

address issues that do not stop at state, city, or 

county lines.

Funding Scarcity 

Since the mid-1990s, inflation has eroded the 

purchasing power of federal transportation 

funds by nearly 40 percent and the balances of 

most dedicated transportation trust funds have 

declined as outlays have exceeded revenues. 

Federal fuel taxes per gallon have not been 

increased since 1993. Similarly, per capita vehicle 

miles traveled (VMT) decreased between 2005 
117 BEYOND TRAFFIC

and 2014. Fuel economy standards have also 

increased over this same period; the average fuel 

economy of a passenger vehicle increased by 

12 percent leading to reductions in fuel use and 

reduced fuel tax revenues. 

Today, funding constraints motivate many major 

transportation decisions across all modes. As 

public revenues have become increasingly scarce 

relative to the costs of maintaining, operating, 

and expanding infrastructure assets, public 

agencies have had to find ways to do more with 

less and, in some cases, scale back services. 

Often funding scarcity constrains options in ways 

that are ultimately detrimental and inefficient; 

for example, forcing public agencies to defer 

maintenance such that the lifecycle costs 

associated with repairs increase. 

The growing scarcity of federal funding has led 

some state and local governments to seek to 

generate additional revenues to pay for a greater 

share of infrastructure across all modes. In 

aviation, passenger facility fees, first authorized 

by Congress in 1990, now contribute to more 

than 30 percent of airport capital investment. 

Following the recession of 2007, state and local 

governments faced sharply declining revenues 

and spending cutbacks. Governments at all 

levels had to make difficult tradeoffs and find 

ways to do more with less. Adjusted for inflation, 

federal, state, and local spending on surface 

transportation fell by $29 billion, or 12 percent, 

between 2002 and 2012.

One major exception to the trend in declining 

surface transportation spending was the 

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 

2009 (ARRA). Passed in direct response to the 

economic crisis, ARRA included $27.5 billion in 

federal funding for highways, $8.4 billion for 

transit, $9.3 billion for passenger rail, and $1.5 

billion in multimodal infrastructure grants.

Some states, such as California, Maryland, 

Massachusetts, Vermont, and Wyoming have 

raised state gas taxes and more than 30 states 

have passed transportation-related fiscal 

initiatives in recent years. In California, regional 

and local governments now provide 49 percent 

of all transportation funding, while the federal 

government provides less than a quarter. 

County-level sales taxes in California generate 

nearly $4 billion annually for transportation. 

However, nearly half of all states have chosen 

not to raise their gas tax over the past decade. 

Other states have found alternative ways to 

fund transportation spending by, for example, 

dedicating a portion of the state sales tax to 

transportation or raising vehicle registration 

fees. States have increasingly used debt to fund 

transportation projects. States’ use of debt to 

fund highway projects tripled over the past 

decade.

At all levels of government, user fees have 

declined as a portion of surface transportation 

revenues. In 2000, user charges accounted for 

more than 95 percent of all federal highway 

revenues. By 2010, less than half of all federal 

highway revenues were derived from user 

charges as a result of the use of General Funds 

to cover Highway Trust Fund (HTF) shortfalls. 

Stimulus spending on transportation projects 

following the Great Recession was drawn from 

the General Fund. Lower-than-expected federal 

fuel tax revenues have also led Congress to 

supplement the Highway Trust Fund with 

transfers from the General Fund and other 

revenue sources. The portion of state highway 

revenues derived from user charges also 

declined—from 74 percent in 2000 to 56 percent 

in 2010.

Public transit system revenues are also covering 

a lesser share of operating costs than was 
HOW WE ALIGN DECISIONS AND DOLLARS 118

previously the case. In 2014, public transit 

systems recovered 36 percent of operating 

expenditures from system-generated revenues, 

down from 45 percent in 2000. 

Airport and Airway Trust Fund excise tax 

revenues have fluctuated since 2000. A number 

of factors, such as external events and general 

economic conditions, contributed to this 

fluctuation in revenues because they affect the 

number of tickets purchased, the fares paid by 

passengers, the amount of fuel purchased, and 

the value of air cargo shipped. For example, 

revenues declined early in the decade because of 

a series of largely unforeseen events, including 

the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, which 

reduced the demand for air travel, resulting 

in a steep decline in airline industry revenue. 

Similarly, during the recent recession, Trust Fund 

revenues declined from $12 billion in fiscal year 

2008 to $10.9 billion in fiscal year 2009, in part 

because of the decline in domestic passenger 

traffic during that period. Trust fund tax revenues 

reached $12.5 billion in fiscal year 2012 and 

$13.5 billion in fiscal year 2014. In recent years, 

FAA budget resources received from General 

Fund revenues have averaged about 28 percent 

annually.

Declining Trust Funds

Over the past decade, Congress has struggled 

to pass timely long-term transportation 

authorizations. The last five-year transportation 

act—the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient 

Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users 

(SAFETEA-LU)—was passed in 2005 after a twoyear delay. Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st 

Century (MAP-21), passed in 2012, authorized 

spending for just two years and was passed after 

nearly a three-year delay. On December 4, 2015, 

President Obama signed the Fixing America’s 

Surface Transportation Act (FAST Act) into law, 

U.S. DOT IS BOLSTERING EFFORTS 

TO DEVELOP STANDARDIZED 

PERFORMANCE MEASURES FOR 

SURFACE TRANSPORTATION THAT 

REFLECT FEDERAL GOALS. IN 

SOME AREAS, ACHIEVEMENT OF 

PERFORMANCE TARGETS WILL 

BE TIED TO A SMALL PORTION OF 

FEDERAL FUNDING FOR STATES. 

after 36 short-term extensions, marking the first 

long-term transportation bill passed by Congress 

in 10 years. 

Uncertainty about federal funding leads to delays 

in planning and constructing transportation 

projects and can raise the cost of issuing debt. 

The critical issue facing Congress in recent 

years, given unprecedented declines in gas tax 

revenues as fuel economy has improved and 

per capita driving has decreased, has been 

identifying sufficient revenues to fund a longterm surface transportation program without 

enacting dramatic cuts to spending. Since 

2001, Congress has authorized greater federal 

spending on highways and transit than the HTF 

has accrued in receipts from highway excise 

taxes and outlays from the HTF have generally 

exceeded revenues on an annual basis. 

Rather than raise fuel tax rates or reduce 

outlays, Congress has supplemented federal 

transportation funding on an ad-hoc basis. 

Between 2007 and 2014, Congress has 

transferred more than $60 billion from the 

Treasury’s General Fund to the Highway Trust 
119 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Fund. MAP-21 was funded through transfers 

from the General Fund and from the Leaking 

Underground Storage Tank Trust Fund. To 

offset the cost of these transfers, Congress has 

enacted provisions unrelated to transportation. 

For example, in the last extension of MAP-21, 

Congress offset transfers to keep the HTF solvent 

through May 2015 and by allowing companies to 

reduce the amount they contribute to pension 

funds and extending customs service fees for 

one year, from 2023 to 2024. The FAST ACT, 

passed in December 2015, provides the Highway 

Trust Fund an additional $70 billion in transfers 

from the General Fund over the next five years to 

make up for federal gas tax shortfalls. By 2020, 

when the FAST Act authorization comes to an 

end, federal gas tax shortfalls will have grown to 

$24 billion annually, or the equivalent of a 12-

cent per gallon tax increase. 

The Inland Waterways Trust Fund (IWTF) supports 

the construction and rehabilitation of capital 

projects on U.S. inland waterways. Approximately 

$80 million annually is generated for the 

IWTF from a fuel tax on vessels using inland 

waterways. The balance of the IWTF has declined 

over the past from around $400 million in 2001 

to slightly more than $100 million today largely 

due to greater than expected costs to construct 

the Olmsted Locks and Dam on the Ohio 

River. To support new construction and major 

rehabilitation of our inland waterways, Congress 

increased the per gallon tax on barge fuel from 

20 cents to 29 cents in 2015.

The expiration in 2007 of the FAA’s long-term 

authorization was followed by 23 short-term 

extensions before Congress passed a multi-year 

authorization in 2012. An authorization lapse 

in 2011 led to a two-week partial shutdown of 

the FAA in 2011 that required the FAA to stop 

construction projects and then restart them. The 

Airport and Airway Trust Fund lost an estimated 

$400 million in revenues from the lapse in 

authority. Operating under a long series of shortterm extensions complicated agency operations 

and made it difficult for FAA to carry out longterm planning and strategic development of 

future technologies and innovation. In 2016, 

Congress again extended FAA authorization for 

almost a full year, through the end of September 

2017.

Policy Trends and Options

Governments can address the challenge of 

funding scarcity through a range of approaches, 

including better allocation of limited resources, 

more efficient delivery of projects, and increased 

revenues. Many governments are deploying 

these approaches in combination through 

use of innovative financing. Recently Vermont 

and Maryland have increased sales taxes on 

gasoline to raise transportation revenues. The 

Commonwealth of Virginia, for example, has 

both raised taxes to fund transportation and 

embarked on an ambitious program of publicprivate partnerships which use private financing 

to incentivize the accelerated delivery and 

efficient management of transportation projects. 

Focusing the Federal Role 

Experienced observers from think tanks 

representing views from across the political 

spectrum have called for the establishment 

of a more focused, goal-driven, mode-neutral, 

and performance-based federal transportation 

program. Some have argued that federal 

transportation spending could be brought 

more closely in line with federal transportation 

revenues by limiting the federal role to focus 

on funding those projects of national and 

regional significance that increase national 

economic competiveness as demonstrated 

through rigorous benefit-cost analysis. Nonprofit 

policy think tanks have proposed consolidated, 
HOW WE ALIGN DECISIONS AND DOLLARS 120

TIFIA Loan Helps Extend Transit Service in Los Angeles

In response to declining transportation revenues, many transportation agencies 

are using innovative finance mechanisms to fund much needed transportation 

infrastructure. The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority 

(LACMTA), for example, recently received $2.1 billion in federal support to help build 

the 9.4-mile Westside Purple Line Extension project from downtown Los Angeles to 

Beverly Hills, the University of California, Los Angeles, and the Westwood Veterans 

Affairs Hospital. LACMTA will receive $1.25 billion in construction grant funds from 

FTA’s Capital Investment Grant program and $856 million from the U.S. DOT’s TIFIA 

federal credit program. LACMTA will repay the TIFIA loan with revenues from a voterapproved retail sales tax. As transportation projects struggle to get off the ground 

nationwide, innovative funding mechanisms will remain a popular strategy for investing 

in beneficial projects that help communities such as the Los Angeles plan for a livable, 

sustainable future.

competitive, non-modal federal funding 

programs that set performance standards 

and incentivize improved performance. Some 

transportation policy experts have proposed 

directing funding to improve the conditions of 

existing infrastructure first and foremost, while 

financing new capacity projects through federally 

subsidized bonds and loans, and non-federal 

revenue sources. 

Geographic equity concerns increase the 

challenge of allocating federal funding on the 

basis of performance, or to focus funding 

programs on areas with the most need. 

Geographic equity is considered by many to 

be essential for gaining national support for 

federal transportation programs, but the goal 

of equitably distributing funding across states 

or regions often conflicts with the goal or 

providing funding where it will have the greatest 

impact on transportation system performance. 

These concerns extend across every mode. 

With surface transportation, the concern is that 

sufficient federal gas tax revenues are distributed 

to small and rural states. In aviation, federal 

funding is provided to ensure the availability of 

air services for small and rural areas. Federal 

funding for Amtrak is provided to subsidize 

service on national routes that incur large 

operating losses. In transit, projects are often 

funded to extend service to new areas with less 

ridership rather than invest in improvements 

in service quality where ridership is high. These 

same tensions concerning the geographic equity 

of transportation investments exist at all scales, 

within states, regions and cities. 

Performance Management 

Transportation agencies in all modes and at 

all levels are increasingly using performance 

measures and data to inform decisions and 

increase accountability. State and local agencies 

utilize these practices to demonstrate to the 

public that they are good stewards of taxpayer 

dollars and that transportation infrastructure is a 

worthwhile investment. 

A study by the Pew Center and the Rockefeller 

Foundation found that over the past 30 years 
HOW WE ALIGN DECISIONS AND DOLLARS 120

TIFIA Loan Helps Extend Transit Service in Los Angeles

In response to declining transportation revenues, many transportation agencies 

are using innovative finance mechanisms to fund much needed transportation 

infrastructure. The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority 

(LACMTA), for example, recently received $2.1 billion in federal support to help build 

the 9.4-mile Westside Purple Line Extension project from downtown Los Angeles to 

Beverly Hills, the University of California, Los Angeles, and the Westwood Veterans 

Affairs Hospital. LACMTA will receive $1.25 billion in construction grant funds from 

FTA’s Capital Investment Grant program and $856 million from the U.S. DOT’s TIFIA 

federal credit program. LACMTA will repay the TIFIA loan with revenues from a voterapproved retail sales tax. As transportation projects struggle to get off the ground 

nationwide, innovative funding mechanisms will remain a popular strategy for investing 

in beneficial projects that help communities such as the Los Angeles plan for a livable, 

sustainable future.

competitive, non-modal federal funding 

programs that set performance standards 

and incentivize improved performance. Some 

transportation policy experts have proposed 

directing funding to improve the conditions of 

existing infrastructure first and foremost, while 

financing new capacity projects through federally 

subsidized bonds and loans, and non-federal 

revenue sources. 

Geographic equity concerns increase the 

challenge of allocating federal funding on the 

basis of performance, or to focus funding 

programs on areas with the most need. 

Geographic equity is considered by many to 

be essential for gaining national support for 

federal transportation programs, but the goal 

of equitably distributing funding across states 

or regions often conflicts with the goal or 

providing funding where it will have the greatest 

impact on transportation system performance. 

These concerns extend across every mode. 

With surface transportation, the concern is that 

sufficient federal gas tax revenues are distributed 

to small and rural states. In aviation, federal 

funding is provided to ensure the availability of 

air services for small and rural areas. Federal 

funding for Amtrak is provided to subsidize 

service on national routes that incur large 

operating losses. In transit, projects are often 

funded to extend service to new areas with less 

ridership rather than invest in improvements 

in service quality where ridership is high. These 

same tensions concerning the geographic equity 

of transportation investments exist at all scales, 

within states, regions and cities. 

Performance Management 

Transportation agencies in all modes and at 

all levels are increasingly using performance 

measures and data to inform decisions and 

increase accountability. State and local agencies 

utilize these practices to demonstrate to the 

public that they are good stewards of taxpayer 

dollars and that transportation infrastructure is a 

worthwhile investment. 

A study by the Pew Center and the Rockefeller 

Foundation found that over the past 30 years 
121 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Virginia’s I-495 Express Lanes P3

A few states, such as Virginia and Florida, have used P3s to successfully deliver a 

number of major projects. For example, the I-495 Express Lanes added dynamically 

tolled express lanes to a 14-mile stretch of the Capital Beltway in Virginia through 

a public-private partnership. An innovative design proposed by the private sector 

minimized property takings and drove down project costs. The $2 billion project, which 

involves an 85-year concession to a private entity to design, build, finance, operate, 

and maintain the express lanes, was ultimately financed using $589 million in private 

activity bonds, $348 million in private equity, a $589 million federal TIFIA loan, and $409 

million grant from the Commonwealth of Virginia. The financing will be repaid with 

income from toll revenues. 

public agencies have developed increasingly 

sophisticated measures to guide asset 

management and safety decisions. However, 

few state agencies have found effective ways 

to accurately measure how transportation 

investments can affect outcomes in critical 

goal areas such as economic development 

and environmental sustainability. The Pew 

Center report identified 13 states including 

Washington, California, Virginia, Minnesota, 

and Missouri that are leading the way 

on the use of performance measures to 

guide decisions across a range of goals. 

Washington State, for example, has used 

performance measures to demonstrate 

to voters and the state legislature how a 5 

cent per gallon increase in the state gas tax 

funded projects to improve safety, mitigate 

congestion, reduce emissions, and support 

economic development. 

At the federal level, most transportation 

funding is currently allocated on the basis 

of formulas that are not directly tied to 

performance, such as population or lane 

miles. Under the FAST Act approximately 

92 percent of federal highway funding and 

80 percent of transit funding is distributed by 

formula to state DOTs, which are responsible for 

investment decisions. Few federal transportation 

programs use performance-based criteria to 

award funding. 

MAP-21 marked a significant step toward making 

federal surface transportation programs more 

performance-based. MAP-21 defined seven 

national goal areas and performance planning 

and reporting requirements for a number 

of surface transportation programs. MAP-21 

established the National Highway Performance 

Program which defines measures for states to 

use to assess and report pavement and bridge 

condition. It requires that safety performance 

measures be established for carrying out the 

Highway Safety Improvement Program and that 

traffic congestion and emissions measures be 

established for the Congestion Mitigation and 

Air Quality Improvement Program. The FAST Act 

continues these requirements.

As established by MAP-21 and continued under 

the FAST Act, states and MPOs are required 

to develop a number of performance-based 

plans including: Metropolitan Transportation 

Plan, Statewide Transportation Plan, Asset 
HOW WE ALIGN DECISIONS AND DOLLARS 122

Management Plan, Strategic Highway Safety Plan, 

CMAQ Performance Plan, and State Freight Plan. 

Several federal highway programs now have 

performance-based rules that require funding 

set-asides if performance in a particular goal 

area falls below established standards. MAP21 also authorized NHTSA to establish national 

performance measures for motor vehicle safety, 

which must be reported on annually in state 

highway safety plans.

Several prominent examples of competitive, 

multimodal, discretionary federal transportation 

programs have been used to support innovative, 

multimodal investments that meet federal goals. 

The Transportation Investment Generating 

Economic Recovery or TIGER, Program, is a 

competitive grant program that was initiated 

as part of ARRA in 2009. TIGER grants fund 

planning and capital projects across different 

surface transportation modes. TIGER was 

originally funded for $1.5 billion, and it has 

subsequently been renewed seven times. Since 

its establishment in 2009, the TIGER grant 

program has provided a combined $5.1 billion 

to 421 projects in all 50 states, the District of 

Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, 

and tribal communities. These federal funds 

leverage money from private sector partners, 

states, local governments, metropolitan planning 

organizations, and transit agencies. The 2016 

TIGER program alone is leveraging nearly $500 

million in federal investment to support $1.74 

billion in overall transportation investments. 

In total, the Department has received more 

than 7,300 applications requesting more than 

$143 billion for transportation projects across 

the country. Criteria for grant awards included 

stipulations from Congress that awards be 

equitably distributed across the country 

and balance the needs of urban and rural 

communities. 

Innovative Finance

Facing limits on transportation revenues, states 

are increasingly turning to tax-exempt bond 

markets and innovative funding mechanisms to 

finance transportation infrastructure. State and 

local municipal bond issuances for highways 

have tripled since 2000, as states have sought to 

take advantage of low interest rates on bonds to 

advance urgent transportation projects. 

Beyond the municipal bond market, innovative 

financing for infrastructure investment is 

becoming increasingly important as public 

budgets continue to tighten at all levels of 

government. Through programs such as the 

Transportation Infrastructure Finance and 

Innovation Act (TIFIA), the Railroad Rehabilitation 

and Improvement Financing Program (RRIF), 

and tax-exempt qualified private activity bonds 

(PABs), U.S. DOT plays a particularly important 

role in supporting innovative finance for projects 

across the country. Interest in these programs 

has increased in recent years. These funding 

tools apply to transportation projects across 

modes. Highway, transit, railroad, intermodal 

freight, and port access projects are all eligible 

for federal credit assistance through the TIFIA 

program. Any form of transportation project 

receiving federal assistance is eligible for PABS. 

Freight rail projects and intermodal facilities are 

eligible for assistance under the RRIF Program.

The TIFIA program provides federal credit 

assistance in the form of direct loans, loan 

guarantees, and standby lines of credit to 

partially finance transportation surface 

transportation projects at low interest rates. 

The FAST Act authorizes $275 million to $300 

million annually for the TIFIA program, which 

can be leveraged to provide as much as $3 

billion in credit assistance. Loans are repaid by 

revenues generated by revenues generated by 
123 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Building Communities: The Economic Benefits of Transportation 

Projects

Transportation plays a major role in promoting economic growth, livability, and 

opportunity in communities across America. Transportation projects create new 

jobs, expand the gross regional product, increase property values and tax bases, and 

improve the overall quality of life. Transportation supports economic growth though 

short-term stimulus impacts and longer-term impacts on economic productivity. 

In assessing the economic development impacts of transportation, economists at 

University of Minnesota’s Center for Transportation Studies have demonstrated that 

careful investments and well-designed transportation projects can yield substantial 

economic benefits that greatly exceed overall project costs.

Consider, for example, the case of East St. Louis, Illinois an industrial suburb. For 

decades, the city’s economic and demographic situation has been bleak; the city 

lost more than two-thirds of its population between 1950 and 2010 as a result of 

deindustrialization and economic decline. Despite these challenges, in the early 2000s 

planners and citizens were able to capitalize on the eastward expansion of the St. Louis 

light rail system—MetroLink—to enact a transportation vision that promised a brighter 

future for the area. The construction of a MetroLink station in the Emerson Park 

neighborhood helped link low-income residents with job opportunities in the Greater 

St. Louis area and spurred a series of transit-oriented affordable housing projects for 

local residents. The rail station also helped persuade lenders to finance mortgages and 

began to attract developers, retailers, and employers to the area. More than 10 years 

later, the station is still spurring economic development, including a recently opened 

$22 million mixed-use apartment complex. 

the projects—through tolls, for example—or 

committed to the project by sponsor agencies. 

Interest in TIFIA has grown in recent years. The 

rate and structure of TIFIA loans are attractive to 

many states seeking alternative ways to finance 

major transportation projects. The FAST Act 

creates the National Surface Transportation and 

Innovative Finance Bureau to serve as a onestop shop for state and local governments to 

receive federal funding, financing, or technical 

assistance.

The RRIF program is authorized to provide direct 

loans and loan guarantees up to $35 billion to 

finance development of railroad infrastructure. 

Up to $7 billion is reserved for projects benefiting 

freight railroads other than Class I carriers. Direct 

loans can fund up to 100 percent of a railroad 

project with repayment periods of up to 35 years 

and interest rates equal to the cost of borrowing. 

Under the FAST Act, RRIF loans can now also 

be used to finance commercial and residential 

development near passenger rail stations.
HOW WE ALIGN DECISIONS AND DOLLARS 124

Some state and local governments have 

entered into public-private partnerships (P3s) to 

finance, construct, and operate transportation 

infrastructure. The goal of P3s is to deliver 

projects more efficiently by expanding the role 

of the private sector. Because P3s typically take 

more resources to evaluate and procure than 

conventional projects, and private financing 

costs are often higher than the costs of public 

financing, P3s are only appropriate for complex, 

high-risk projects. Consequently, P3 investments 

account for only a small portion of overall 

transportation investments. Between 2007 and 

2013, $22.7 billion of public and private funds 

was invested in P3s, about 2 percent of overall 

capital investment in the nation’s highways 

during that same period. 

P3s can provide an alternative source of 

financing that can accelerate projects and save 

taxpayers money when used appropriately 

under the right circumstances. However, P3s 

should not be considered as a source of funding 

for transportation infrastructure, but rather 

as a form of financing which will be repaid by 

public users. In a P3, the private firms invest 

equity upfront to help pay for the design and 

construction costs of the project, but, over the 

long run, they seek competitive rates of return 

on those investments. Those returns are typically 

paid through tolls on the constructed facility or 

by annual payments from the public partner. 

P3s face a number of challenges, including 

estimating the value of delivering a project 

through a P3, estimating the lifecycle costs of 

a project, and the expected project revenues, 

and estimating the value of transferring risk to 

the private sector. Another significant obstacle 

is the patchwork of legal environments and 

procurement practices that differ across states, 

raising transaction costs for investors. In addition, 

state and local governments are very familiar 

with traditional municipal bond financing of 

infrastructure projects, which thus becomes the 

default approach, even on projects for which 

there are opportunities for long-term net savings 

through well-designed P3s. Some P3s have also 

been criticized for providing overly generous 

terms or subsidies to private, for-profit firms. 

Policymakers may also lack the political will either 

to implement enabling legislation or to increase 

revenue streams through tolling and other 

approaches. 

Alternative Revenues

Federal and state governments are increasingly 

turning to alternatives to the gas tax for funding 

transportation infrastructure. Gas tax receipts 

are declining as cars and trucks become more 

fuel efficient and growth in highway travel slows. 

In the face of political challenges to raising 

fuel taxes and declining prospects for future 

revenues, state and local governments have 

sought alternative revenue sources to finance 

transportation. 

At the state level, states such as Massachusetts, 

Maryland, New Hampshire, and Wyoming have 

raised state gas taxes in recent years. Some 

states, such as Pennsylvania and Virginia, have 

transitioned from a traditional gas tax levied 

as a flat amount per gallon to a sales tax at the 

wholesale level. Others have dedicated a portion 

of the state sales tax to transportation funding or 

OPEN SKIES AGREEMENTS 

ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE 

LOWERED TICKET COSTS AND 

INCREASED DEMAND FOR 

INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS.
125 BEYOND TRAFFIC

have raised license, registration, and excise fees 

on vehicles. A number of states have turned to 

tolling and priced express lanes, in particular, to 

deliver projects that expand roadway capacity 

while managing congestion.

Local governments have also demonstrated 

success raising taxes for transportation, often in 

exchange for a dedicated program of projects. 

For example, local options for sales taxes have 

been used to fund the expansion of transit 

systems in Los Angeles, Denver, and Seattle. 

In Portland, Oregon, the city used a variety of 

funding sources, including special assessments 

on local businesses and tax increment financing, 

which captured property tax revenues generated 

by increasing property values, to help finance a 

15-mile streetcar network. 

Value Capture

Some localities have experimented with more 

innovative forms of revenue, such as value 

capture and transportation utility fees. Value 

capture strategies can include a variety of 

mechanisms to capture a portion of the value 

generated by increases in land value near 

transportation improvements. Value capture 

can take the form of improvement districts 

where property owners and businesses agree 

to pay annual fees to fund a transportation 

improvement. Tax increment financing districts 

are another form of value capture where a 

portion of future property taxes resulting from 

increased property values is used to pay for 

infrastructure. Transportation utility fees are 

charged to residents and businesses on the basis 

of the type of business or residency and the 

number of trips they are estimated to generate.

Mileage Fees

Vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) fees are charged to 

drivers based on the miles they drive. Devices 

can be installed in vehicles to securely collect 

mileage data, data can be collected by satellite, 

or drivers can self-report usage. VMT fees have 

been piloted by Oregon and in 12 cities as part 

of a federally funded national evaluation. VMT 

fees are increasingly considered as a long-term 

solution to transportation revenue needs. 

The advantage of VMT fees is that they are a 

more direct user fee. Revenues will not erode 

as vehicles become more efficient. If used in 

conjunction with a global positioning system 

(GPS), rates could be varied based on the 

geographic location of the vehicle or the time 

of travel. Such widespread congestion pricing 

could result in savings from reduced delays 

and fuel consumption equaling more than $20 

billion annually. However, implementing VMT 

taxes is far more technically challenging than 

collecting gas taxes. There are also privacy 

concerns to consider as citizens may fear that 

the government could use GPS data to track their 

whereabouts. One way to protect the privacy of 

citizens would be to restrict government’s access 

to data about where people are traveling by 

using independent private services to scramble 

the data and manage billing. 

Tolling

Many state and local governments have also 

begun implementing tolling strategies to raise 

revenue for transportation infrastructure. Not 

only can tolling be used to generate revenues to 

fund the construction of new highway capacity 

and to maintain existing capacity, it can also be 

used to manage congestion on a facility. Dynamic 

tolling, in which toll rates change based on the 

time of day or level of congestion, is particularly 

well suited to this role. 

Tolling has also increased as a strategy to fund 

highways, bridges, and tunnels. Since 1992, tolls 
HOW WE ALIGN DECISIONS AND DOLLARS 126

as a portion of state and local highway revenues 

have increased from 6 to 9 percent. Tolling is a 

more direct user fee than the gas tax, but it is 

more costly to collect than the gas tax. However, 

with the advent of electronic toll collection and 

mobile payment technologies, tolling has become 

more cost-effective and convenient. Tolling has 

increasingly been used to fund the construction 

and maintenance of price-managed lanes—or 

dedicated toll and high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) 

lanes. 

Federal law currently restricts the use of 

tolls on interstate system routes. However, 

beginning with the enactment of the Intermodal 

Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) 

in 1991 and through succeeding federal 

surface transportation authorization acts, 

several exceptions to restrictions on tolling 

have been provided. Tolling can be used on 

new facilities and on bridges and tunnels 

that are reconstructed or replaced. These 

include special pilot programs that were 

established to allow tolling on a limited number 

of interstate segments for the purpose of 

funding reconstruction and rehabilitation of the 

interstate. However, none of these pilots have 

been implemented to date.

International Cooperation

Over the past 30 years, the global economy 

has become increasingly integrated. More 

global travel and trade has made international 

government cooperation more important than 

ever. Issues requiring international cooperation 

include setting safety and security standards 

for international travel, pursuing standards 

harmonization for transportation industry 

products, seeking greater regulatory cooperation, 

facilitating market access and promoting 

international trade, and addressing global 

environmental issues. 

For example, Open Skies civil aviation 

agreements— an international service agreement 

between two or more nations, designed to 

loosen rules and regulations of international 

aviation—especially for commercial aviation—

led to international travel and economic 

growth, by reducing government involvement 

in commercial airline decisions about routes, 

capacity, and pricing. The U.S. has pursued Open 

Skies agreements with international partners 

since 1992 and there are now more than 

100 agreements in place covering 70 percent 

of international departures. By opening up 

international aviation, Open Skies agreements 

improve flexibility for airline operations, boost 

local economies, and strengthen and expand 

economic and cultural links with foreign 

countries. 

In our globalized economy, international 

cooperation is needed to ensure compatibility 

and consistency as technological advances 

are adopted in aviation and marine 

transportation, vehicle safety and fuel efficiency, 

and international transportation systems. 

International research collaboration can 

promote innovation to address the common 

transportation problems faced by countries and 

individuals.

International cooperation is critical to addressing 

global environmental issues. For example, to 

address air pollution and emissions, the U.S. 

and other countries have worked cooperatively 

to establish marine fuel quality and engine 

emissions standards for international shipping. 

The United States is also working with the United 

Nations International Civil Aviation Organization 

to find ways to address aircraft emissions caused 

by international air travel through coordinated 

action and cooperative research and the 

development of new technologies. 
127 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Policy Implications

Transportation agencies at all levels and across 

all modes face serious financial challenges 

that limit their ability to maintain our existing 

transportation system, let alone invest in the 

transportation system of tomorrow. While the 

American public believes in the importance of 

transportation, they are unable to agree on 

how to pay for it. Some are not convinced that 

governments will make efficient use of new 

revenues. Others want to be assured that tax 

dollars and other investments are distributed to 

the region where they live, or to the mode that 

they use. 

The last 20 years have been marked by a shift 

from transportation system expansion to system 

preservation. The federal gasoline tax was last 

raised in 1993, just a couple of years after the 

last major segments of the interstate highway 

system were completed. Today, the bulk of 

transportation funding goes to preserving and 

enhancing existing facilities. For example, one of 

the most costly transportation projects currently 

underway is the $2.3-billion reconstruction of a 

21-mile stretch of Interstate 4 through Orlando, 

which will preserve the existing corridor while 

adding additional lanes of traffic to accommodate 

a growing metropolis.

Some of the largest projects are to replace 

structurally deficient bridges. Replacement of 

the Tappan Zee Bridge in New York will cost an 

estimated $3.9 billion, while the replacement of 

the San Francisco Bay Bridge cost $6.4 billion. 

The bulk of ARRA transportation funding went 

to projects to repair and rehabilitate existing 

systems rather than expand capacity. In this era 

of scarcity, visionary capacity building projects, 

like the development of high-speed rail corridors, 

face intense scrutiny and skepticism. 

As resources have become increasingly 

constrained, governments are being forced 

to make hard choices about whether to 

maintain services on roads and facilities that 

are less economically important. The use of 

enhanced data on the location and conditions 

of infrastructure and the location and 

characteristics of safety incidents have become 

increasingly important to public agency decision 

makers to guide resources to where they can be 

used most effectively to preserve the system and 

to demonstrate to the public that their tax dollars 

are put to good use. Asset management data 

help transportation agencies make investments 

that minimize lifecycle costs. Public agencies are 

using safety data to assess risks and guide the 

implementation of countermeasures. 

Even as public agencies increasingly rely on data 

to support decisions, they can also use those 

data and the growing number of sophisticated 

digital communications tools to educate and 

engage the public in the decision-making process 

so that more voices are heard. Performance 

measures can help agencies communicate to 

the public the needs and potential benefits 

of transportation investments and strategies. 

Social media can be leveraged, not just to alert 

system users of potential delays or hazards, but 

to engage the public in planning and visioning 

processes, or even to crowdsource data 

collection and tactical problem-solving activities.

Increasingly, governments are looking for 

ways to transfer risks and responsibilities for 

managing transportation systems to the private 

sector. However, the private sector tends to be 

interested in assets from which it can generate 

a competitive rate of return. Governments are 

also developing strategies to leverage revenues 

through finance to bring private and public 

funding to the table to fund projects in the 

public interest. In the absence of robust federal 
HOW WE ALIGN DECISIONS AND DOLLARS 128

support, local governments have increasingly 

sought ways to develop their own revenues to 

fund transportation projects that directly benefit 

those localities. But, ultimately, the performance 

of America’s transportation system depends 

on planning and making decisions at a regional 

and national level that benefit the performance 

of the network as a whole. And, it is the federal 

government’s responsibility to ensure the 

sustained performance of this interconnected 

multimodal, national transportation system. 

Over the next 30 years the nation will need to 

embrace reforms to improve the effectiveness 

of transportation governance. A wealth of policy 

options exist that can improve transportation 

governance and finance, including:

3⁄4 Developing measurable national 

transportation objectives that tie 

performance to incentives or consequences 

for recipients of federal funding. 

3⁄4 Incentivizing coordination across 

jurisdictions, and the development of local 

revenues.

3⁄4 Strengthening planning and project 

development at the regional level.

3⁄4 Improving data collection and analysis 

capabilities to enable transportation 

programs to become more performancebased. 

3⁄4 Quantifying the economic benefits 

and lifecycle costs of projects to aid in 

maintenance and investment decisions.

3⁄4 Developing revenue vehicles that can provide 

sustainable, predictable revenue streams 

that support efficient, long-term planning 

decisions for both capital expenditures and 

operating expenses.

3⁄4 Facilitating access to credit assistance for 

transportation projects and establishing 

policies that level the playing field for 

states and municipalities seeking to deliver 

transportation infrastructure through publicprivate partnerships. 

3⁄4 Reforming the project delivery process by 

improving coordination and streamlining 

permitting and oversight.

3⁄4 Using pricing and market-based solutions 

when appropriate to efficiently manage 

demand and to reduce regulatory burdens 

on travelers and industry.

These policy options are explored in further 

depth in the conclusion of this report.

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129 BEYOND TRAFFIC

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● Laing, Keith. The Hill. “Obama signs $63B FAA 

funding bill into law.” February 14, 2012.(http://

thehill.com/policy/transportation/210649-obamasigns-63b-faa-funding-bill-into-law)

● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. 2014. 

Funding for Highways and Disposition of 

Highway-User Revenues, All Units of Government, 

2012. March. (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/

policyinformation/statistics/2012/pdf/hf10.pdf) 

● Fritelli, John. Congressional Research Service. 

2013. Harbor Maintenance Financing and Funding. 

September. (http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43222.

pdf)
HOW WE ALIGN DECISIONS AND DOLLARS 130

Focusing the Federal Role

● Bipartisan Policy Center, Strategies for Defining 

the Core Federal Role in Surface Transportation, 

December 2011, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/wpcontent/uploads/sites/default/files/NTPP%20

Paper_0.pdf

● Poole, Robert W., Jr. and Adrian T. Moore. Reason 

Foundation. 2010. Restoring Trust in the Highway 

Trust Fund. August. (http://reason.org/files/

restoring_highway_trust_fund.pdf)

● Kahn, Matthew E. and David M. Levinson. The 

Brookings Institution. The Hamilton Project. 2011. 

Fix it First, Expand it Second, Reward it Third: A 

New Strategy for America’s Highways. February.

(http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/

files/papers/2011/2/highway%20infrastructure%20

kahn%20levinson/02_highway_infrastructure_kahn_

levinson_paper.pdf)

Performance Management

● (GAO) Government Accountability Office. 

2014. Surface Transportation: Department of 

Transportation Should Measure the Overall 

Performance and Outcomes of the TIGER 

Discretionary Grant Program. September. (http://

www.gao.gov/assets/670/666025.pdf)

● (GAO) Government Accountability Office. 2010. 

Statewide Transportation Planning: Opportunities 

Exist to Transition to Performance-Based Planning 

and Federal Oversight. December. (http://www.gao.

gov/assets/320/314004.pdf)

Innovative Finance

● Galston, William A. and Korin Davis. The Brookings 

Institution. “Setting Priorities, Meeting Needs: The 

Case for a National Infrastructure Bank.” December 

13, 2012. (http://www.brookings.edu/research/

papers/2012/12/13-infrastructure-bank-galstondavis)

● (Treasury) Department of the Treasury. 2014. 

Expanding our Nation’s Infrastructure through 

Innovative Financing. September. (http://www.

treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/

Documents/Expanding%20our%20Nation’s%20

● Infrastructure%20through%20Innovative%20

Financing.pdf)

● The White House. “Fact Sheet: Building a 21st 

Century Infrastructure: Increasing Public and 

Private Collaboration with the Build America 

Investment Initiative.” News release. July 17, 

2014. (http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pressoffice/2014/07/17/fact-sheet-building-21st-centuryinfrastructure-increasing-public-and-pr)

Alternative Revenues

● National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue 

Study Commission. 2007. Evaluation of Impact Fees 

and Value Capture Techniques. January.(http://

transportationfortomorrow.com/final_report/pdf/

volume_3/technical_issue_papers/paper5a_11.pdf)

● (CBO) Congressional Budget Office. 2011. 

Alternative Approaches to Funding Highways. 

March.(https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/03-

23-highwayfunding.pdf)

● Adams, John S. and Barbara J. VanDrasek. Center 

for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, 

and The American Institute of Architects. 2007. 

Transportation as Catalyst for Community 

Economic Development. December. (http://www.

its.umn.edu/Publications/ResearchReports/

pdfdownloadl.pl?id=838) 

Policy Options

● Florida Department of Transportation. I-4 Ultimate 

Improvement Project; “Project Info.” (http://

i4ultimate.com/project-info)

● Works. 113th Cong. (2013). (http://www.epw.

senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.

View&FileStore_id=9a3ecfde-0783-4744-ace6-

d825ff352fe1) 
131 BEYOND TRAFFIC

SYSTEM 

IMPLICATIONS

How will trends affect the different components of the 

transportation system? We must examine implications for 

each mode.

This part of the report explores how the 

trends we have just presented will affect the 

transportation system’s modal components.

Each “modal” section, in addition to describing 

the implications of the major trends, discusses 

trends in safety and physical infrastructure 

conditions, or state of good repair.

The modal sections are as follows:

3⁄4 Highways

3⁄4 Pedestrians and Cyclists

3⁄4 Public Transit

3⁄4 Aviation

3⁄4 Intercity Rail

3⁄4 Maritime

3⁄4 Pipelines

The modal sections are preceded by a discussion 

of travel demand.
WHY DO PEOPLE TRAVEL 132

WHY DO PEOPLE TRAVEL

To understand trends in transportation demand, 

we must understand why people travel. The most 

common reasons are to commute to and from 

work, to travel to school and religious services, 

to shop, to go on vacation and visit friends and 

relatives, and to travel for business purposes. 

Personal travel makes up about three quarters 

of all highway travel. Freight movement, publicvehicle travel, and utility-services travel make up 

the remaining quarter of travel on roads. 

People travel much more today than they did 

30 years ago. Over the past 30 years total VMT 

nearly doubled; VMT per capita increased by 

approximately 40 percent. Today there are 93 

million more registered vehicles and 58 million 

more licensed drivers on our roads than there 

were 30 years ago. Indeed, travel by all modes 

has been increasing. Both passenger rail and 

public transit travel have increased by more than 

a third. The largest increase is in commercial 

aviation, where passenger miles traveled has 

more than doubled. However, as described in the 

How We Move section, the trend in growth in per 

capita travel may be slowing. 

Commuting

Commuting is one of the most common 

reasons for travel. Over the past 30 years, 

average commuting distances have increased 

and commuting speeds have declined, leading 

Americans to spend more time commuting. 

More and more Americans traveled to work in 

a car alone and traffic increased in many major 

metropolitan areas. 

Travel for commuting constitutes nearly 40 

percent of all public transit passenger miles 

traveled, and 28 percent of all vehicle miles 

traveled. Workers travel significantly more 

than non-workers. Workers as a group average 

about twice the level of overall travel and almost 

three times the level of auto travel compared to 

retirees. 

People are much more likely to travel alone when 

they are commuting than when they are traveling 

to run errands and for social and recreational 

purposes. Although rush hour traffic includes 

a significant portion of people traveling for 

non-work purposes, commuting times tend to 

coincide with peak travel times, between 7 and 9 

a.m. and again between 4 and 6 p.m. According 

to the most recently published National 

Household Travel Survey data, average commute 

distances increased significantly between 1983 

and 2001, from 8.5 miles to 12.1 miles per trip, 

before declining slightly to 11.8 miles in 2009. 

Likewise, the average time we spend commuting 

has increased, from 18 minutes per trip in 1983 

to 24 minutes in 2009. Finally, since 1990 the 

average speed of commuting has declined in all 

metropolitan areas as traffic has increased. 

Nearly all of the growth in commuting traffic 

can be attributed to growth in commutes by 

private vehicle. Census data on commuting show 

that between 1980 and 2014, the proportion of 

workers driving alone to work increased from 64 

percent to 76 percent. During the same period, 

carpooling decreased from 20 percent of all 

trips to 10 percent and public transit’s share 
133 BEYOND TRAFFIC

62 M

34 M

Drive Alone

All Other commuters

1980

84 M

31 M

1990

97 M

31 M

2000

105 M

32 M

2010

112 M

34 M

2014

American Workers

Number of Americans 

who Drive to Work Alone

of commuters decreased from 6 percent to 5 

percent. 

Between 2003 and 2013, the long-term trend 

of increasing travel by personal vehicle slowed. 

While the share of those carpooling continued 

to decline, the share of other modes, such as 

transit, walking, cycling, and telecommuting 

increased slightly. Rapid growth in the share of 

automobile commuting appears to be ending, 

and the use of public transit and other modes 

is rebounding. However, these recent changes 

have had a relatively minor impact on overall 

commuting patterns. Today more than three in 

four Americans commute by driving alone. 

Looking ahead to the next 30 years, the most 

influential factors affecting commuter travel are 

likely to be two trends highlighted earlier: the 

size of the workforce and the growth in flexible 

schedules and teleworking. The portion of 

Americans in the workforce is expected to decline 

as the population ages, moderating growth in the 

number of commuters. The continued growth in 

teleworking and the use of flexible schedules will 

also serve to moderate demand for commuting, 

particularly at peak travel times. These changes 

may combine to slow growth in congestion in 

metropolitan areas.

Non-Work Travel

While commuting is an important component 

of personal travel, nearly half the population 

does not work, and a majority of travel is for 

non-work purposes. Non-work trips include trips 

for shopping, personal errands, and social and 

recreational travel. They account for 81 percent 

of all passenger miles traveled and 54 percent of 

all vehicle miles traveled.

Non-work trips tend to be shorter than work 

trips and are more likely to be undertaken with 

others. For non-work trips, particularly social 

and recreational travel and travel to school and 

religious services, individuals are less likely to 

use a private vehicle or take transit, and much 

more likely to walk. Non-work travel also tends 

to be undertaken throughout the day, and on 

weekends as well as weekdays.

Long-Distance Travel

The vast majority of trips we take are for 

relatively short distances. Less than 5 percent 

of all trips people take are more than 30 miles 

in length. However, these trips account for 

approximately a third of passenger vehicle miles 

traveled. Most long-distance trips are to visit 

friends and family, and for vacation. Another 

common reason is business travel. Like all trips 

over one mile, the dominant mode for long 

distance travel is a personal vehicle. Personal 

vehicle travel accounts for 9 out of 10 trips of 100 

miles or more. Another 6 percent are made by air 

travel. The remaining 4 percent are made by bus 

and train. 
WHY DO PEOPLE TRAVEL 134

Tourism and the U.S. Economy

Increasing travel and tourism can increase employment and strengthen economies 

in urban, suburban, and rural regions throughout the United States. According to the 

Department of Commerce, spending by international visitors in 2013 totaled more 

than $180.7 billion, up nearly $1.3 billion per month from 2012. The travel and tourism 

industry now accounts for 26 percent of all American services exports, making tourism 

the top service that the United States exports, and nearly 8 percent of overall exports. 

The National Travel and Tourism Strategy, proposed by President Obama and adopted 

in 2012, identified ways to significantly increase travel and tourism in and to the United 

States and set a goal of annually welcoming 100 million international visitors to the 

United States by 2021. U.S. DOT is working hard with other federal agencies to help 

accomplish that goal. The United States requires world class infrastructure to attract 

and facilitate domestic and international tourism, and maintain its leadership position 

as a top global travel destination.

For trips between 100 and 500 miles, express 

buses, trains, and airlines all compete for 

customers. Altogether, between 2010 and 2012 

the number of operations by discount intercity 

bus carriers nearly doubled. Today, the motor 

coach industry carries more than 600 million 

passengers a year in the United States, nearly 

as many as U.S. airlines and twenty times as 

many as Amtrak. While traditional scheduled 

motor coach providers, such as Greyhound, have 

operated for almost 100 years, today, discount 

intercity bus services—which first emerged in 

the mid-2000s—are expanding rapidly. As a 

result, traditional providers have remodeled their 

business approach to compete with discount 

carriers. This entry of new carriers is spurring 

competition that also leads to more convenient 

services. Intercity bus carriers compete for 

travelers by providing low fares, convenient 

online ticketing services and amenities such as 

power outlets and uninterrupted Wi-Fi service.

Average intercity bus fares are significantly lower 

than those for passenger train and airlines for 

the same city pair, and the costs are generally 

lower than driving. 

The rapidly increasing intercity bus market has 

also led to increased safety risks as new low-cost 

carriers have entered the market. Strengthening 

federal and state regulations and increased 

oversight and enforcement can help to ensure 

that intercity bus services are safe and accessible.

International Travel and 

Tourism

More than half of all international trips, and 

virtually all trips taken outside of North America, 

are taken by plane. U.S. citizens made more than 

73 million international trips in 2015. About 55 

percent of all international trips were to Mexico 

or Canada, and more than 85 percent of those 

trips were made by surface transportation. 

International tourism is growing rapidly—the 

number of international visitors to the United 

States has grown by 60 percent over the past 

decade. International tourists spent $221 billion 
135 BEYOND TRAFFIC

in 2014, accounting for nearly 10 percent of 

all U.S. exports. While the United States set 

records for international visitation in recent 

years, the global travel market has become 

increasingly competitive. Other countries actively 

market themselves, and new destinations 

are aggressively competing for market share. 

Transportation policy can play a critical role in 

attracting tourists by facilitating tourist arrivals 

in our airports, ports, and border crossings 

and enabling access to safe multimodal travel 

throughout the country. By engaging with 

international partners to reduce trade barriers, 

transportation policy can support safe and 

affordable international air travel for both U.S. 

citizens and international visitors.

Freight

Our freight transportation system is made up of 

multiple interconnected modes and networks 

that fit together to transport an immense variety 

of goods and services. 

The fastest growing rail freight sector is 

intermodal traffic—or the movement of a 

wide range of products in containers and 

trailers. More than 10 percent of freight is now 

transported on multiple modes. For example, 

imported merchandise arrives in container ships 

to coastal ports such as Los Angeles/Long Beach, 

where it is transferred to trains and trucks to be 

transported to inland distribution centers across 

the country. 

Trucking is the primary mode of travel for most 

freight and is the dominant mode for distances 

under 750 miles. Commercial trucking accounts 

for about 9 percent of all highway vehicle 

miles traveled. Trucks are the dominant mode 

for freight because the extensive public road 

network allows for point-to-point delivery.

Rail and marine transportation are more 

commonly used for long-distance hauls of bulk 

goods and raw materials. Freight rail traffic 

has nearly doubled since the industry was 

deregulated in the early 1980s. 

The transportation of agricultural products and 

other goods by barge remains a viable alternative 

to road and rail transportation in many parts of 

our country. Millions of tons of bulk commodities 

are transported throughout the Ohio River Basin, 

along the Mississippi River and the Great Lakes, 

and on the Columbia and Snake Rivers on the 

West Coast. However, over the past 30 years 

ton-mileage of domestic marine transportation 

has declined considerably, as trucks have taken 

a larger share of domestic freight, and the 

economy has shifted toward services and away 

from agricultural production. 

Air freight carries only a small portion of overall 

freight tonnage, but it is the mode of choice for 

carrying high value cargo over long distances. 

The most important cargo airports, by landed 

weight, are Memphis and Louisville, which are 

the global hubs for FedEx and UPS, respectively, 

as well as Anchorage, which is a gateway for 

trade with Asia. However, many other airports 

also accommodate significant levels of air 

cargo, such as Miami International, Los Angeles 

International, Chicago O’Hare, and the New York 

City-area airports. 

References

Commuting

● American Association of State Highway and 

Transportation Officials. 2013. Commuting in 

America 2013: The National Report on Commuting 

Patterns and Trends. October.(http://traveltrends.

transportation.org/Documents/CA10-4.pdf)
WHY DO PEOPLE TRAVEL 136

● Pisarski, Alan E. Transportation Research Board. 

2006. Commuting in America: The Third National 

Report on Commuting Pattern and Trends. June. 

(http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/CIAIII.

pdf)

● Santos, Adella, et al. Federal Highway 

Administration. 2011. Summary of Travel Trends: 

2009 National Household Travel Survey. June. 

(http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/stt.pdf)

● U.S. Census Bureau, S0802: Means of 

Transportation to Work by Selected Characteristics, 

2010-2014 American Community Survey 

5-year estimates, http://factfinder.census.gov/

faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.

xhtml?pid=ACS_14_5YR_S0802&prodType=table

Non-Work Travel ● Federal Highway Administration, Summary of Travel 

Trends: 2009 National Household Travel Survey. 

2011. http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/stt.pdf

Long Distance Travel ● American Bus Association Foundation, Motorcoach 

Census 2013, http://www.buses.org/abafoundation/research-summary/size-and-scope

● McGuckin, Nancy. “Long Distance Travel in the 

United States.” Presentation at the Transportation 

Research Board Annual Conference. January 2009. 

(http://www.travelbehavior.us/Nancy--ppt/Long%20

Distance%20Travel%20in%20the%20US%20-%20

PPT.pdf)

● Schwieterman, et al. Adding on Amenities, 

Broadening the Base: 2014 Year-in-Review of 

Intercity Bus Service in the United States. Chaddick 

Institute for Metropolitan Development, http://

las.depaul.edu/centers-and-institutes/chaddickinstitute-for-metropolitan-development/researchand-publications/Documents/2014-Year-in-Reviewof-Intercity-Bus-Service-in-the-United-States.pdf.pdf

Freight ● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. Freight 

Facts and Figures 2013; “Figure 2-3a. Mode Share of 

Freight Ton-Miles by Distance Band: 2007.” (http://

ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/nat_

freight_stats/docs/13factsfigures/figure2_03a.htm)

● U.S. DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 

Transportation Statistics Annual Report 2013, 

http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/

files/TSAR_2013.pdf
137 BEYOND TRAFFIC

HIGHWAYS AND MOTOR 

VEHICLES

Our nation’s robust highway system connects 

Americans from across the country. Safe, highfunctioning roadways, bridges, and tunnels 

support freedom of movement and enable 

access to goods, services, and markets that 

are essential to the way of life of all Americans. 

Yet today our highway system is facing many 

challenges, from aging infrastructure and 

increased congestion to reduced fuel tax 

revenues, which threaten to lower our quality of 

life and reduce our economic competitiveness. 

As we look to the future it is clear that the 

demographic, economic, technological, 

environmental, and cultural trends highlighted in 

this report will have a major impact on highway 

performance over the next 30 years. Critical 

trends affecting highways include:

3⁄4 Population and economic growth will lead to 

increased motor vehicle travel, particularly 

in metropolitan areas, leading to increasing 

congestion.

3⁄4 Many aging highways and deficient bridges 

will require reconstruction and replacement 

demanding more funds to maintain our 

roadway infrastructure in a state of good 

repair.

3⁄4 Higher fuel efficiency standards will lead to 

lower fuel consumption driving down fuel 

tax revenues and forcing policymakers to 

consider alternative sources of funding for 

transportation.

3⁄4 Advances in automation of vehicles will 

lead to continued improvements in safety 

and enhance the productivity of our 

transportation system while creating new 

challenges for planners, regulators, and 

policymakers.

3⁄4 Continued safety advances will result in 

thousands of lives saved.

History

The modern era of public road planning and 

construction begins with the bicycle. In the 

1890s, groups like the League of American 

Wheelmen, with 150,000 members at its peak, 

and the National League for Good Roads, started 

the Good Roads Movement to lobby for public 

investment in roads. But it was not until 1916 

that the Federal Aid Road Act was established 

to improve rural post roads, marking the 

beginning of federal aid to states for modern 

road construction. The Federal-Aid Highway Act 

of 1921 extended funding to interstate highways 

for urban motorists. In 1932, the Hoover 

administration enacted a penny-per-gallon 

fuel tax—the first federal gas tax—to address 

the growing federal budget deficit. The federal 

gas tax continued to support general federal 

revenues until the Federal-Aid Highway Act of 

1956. 

The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1944 was the 

first to call for an extensive national system of 

interstate highways, but the interstate system 
HIGHWAYS AND MOTOR VEHICLES 138

Percent Increase in VMT

and Lane Miles 

1990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122013

Vehicle Miles of Travel

Lane Miles

40%

30%

20%

10%

0

Percent increase from 1990

was not federally funded until President 

Eisenhower signed the landmark FederalAid Highway Act in 1956. The Act created the 

Highway Trust Fund to cover the expenses of 

the federal-aid highway program and dedicated 

federal fuel tax receipts to it. With more than 

41,000 miles of interstates constructed, the 

system was proclaimed essentially complete in 

1992. 

The vast majority of our roadway system is made 

up of state and local roads that are not part of 

the interstate highway system. In total, there are 

more than 4 million miles of public roads. More 

than three quarters of these roads are owned by 

local governments. 

The construction and expansion of highways 

slowed following the substantive completion 

of the interstate system in 1992. Construction 

of new roads and bridges slowed in part due 

to technical and fiscal challenges of expanding 

capacity in the built-up metropolitan areas 

where capacity is most needed. Higher planning, 

environmental, and engineering standards 

increased the cost and time it takes to build 

roadway capacity, while fuel efficiency gains 

reduced fuel tax revenue and inflation eroded 

the purchasing power of transportation dollars. 

As highway expansion slowed, vehicle travel 

continued to increase, leading to increasing 

congestion. Today, highways across the country 

suffer from high levels of congestion, particularly 

in metropolitan areas, even as the growth of 

vehicle travel has slowed. 

Increasing Congestion

We all know the frustrating experience of sitting 

in traffic. Unfortunately, for many of us traffic 

is part of our daily lives. We spend long hours 

stuck in traffic, or we go out of our way to avoid 

traffic by going to work at odd hours, leaving 

early for appointments, or by taking roundabout 

routes to avoid areas of chronic congestion. By 

some estimates, the average American spends 

42 hours in traffic each year, the equivalent of 

five days of vacation. Congestion also holds 

back our economy; all told, highway congestion 

in metropolitan areas costs our economy an 

estimated $160 billion each year in wasted time 

and fuel and an average commuter more than 

$960. 

Congestion will likely increase in the coming 

years as the population and economic growth are 

increasingly concentrated in already congested 

metropolitan areas. Highway congestion has a 

INTERSTATE HIGHWAYS MAKE 

UP ONLY ABOUT 1 PERCENT OF 

ROADWAY MILES IN THE UNITED 

STATES BUT THEY CARRY MORE THAN 

17 PERCENT OF ALL TRAFFIC.
139 BEYOND TRAFFIC

The Costs of Freight Bottlenecks

The long and often vulnerable supply chains of high-value, time-sensitive commodities 

are particularly susceptible to congestion. Congestion results in enormous costs to 

shippers, carriers, and the economy. For example, Nike spends an additional $4 million 

per week to carry an extra 7 to 14 days of inventory to compensate for shipping delays. 

One day of delay requires a container transportation provider to use an additional 

1,300 containers and chassis, which adds $4 million in costs per year. A week-long 

disruption to container movements through the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach 

could cost the national economy between $65 million and $150 million per day. Freight 

bottlenecks on highways throughout the United States cause more than 243 million 

hours of delay to truckers annually, a loss of about $6.5 billion per year.

negative impact on all aspects of our lives that 

require travel and the movement of goods. As 

the population in metropolitan areas grows over 

the next 30 years, the increases in vehicle travel, 

albeit at slower rates than the past 30 years, can 

be expected to further exacerbate congestion 

resulting in added costs for road users. 

FHWA projects vehicle travel to grow at an 

average annual rate ranging from 0.58 to 0.86 

percent over the long-term—as fast as or slightly 

faster than the rate of population growth. At 

these rates, the traffic on our roadways would 

increase to between 19 and 29 percent by 2045. 

Since most population growth will be located 

in metropolitan areas, growth in vehicle travel 

will likely disproportionately affect fast growing 

metropolitan areas. 

Congestion not only inconveniences commuters 

it also hurts our economy by raising the costs of 

delivering goods. Trucking is the primary freight 

mode and many key truck routes on the National 

Highway System are expected to experience 

significant increases in truck volume over the 

next 30 years. Congestion along truck corridors 

decreases the reliability of truck deliveries 

affecting the industry’s ability to respond to 

customer requirements and raising the costs of 

goods. Over the past 30 years, deregulation and 

other factors have increased the productivity 

and lowered the cost of freight transportation. 

However, failure to invest in strategies to address 

congestion could increase the cost of moving all 

goods in the years ahead. 

Aging Highways and Bridges

It is becoming more costly to maintain highquality driving conditions on America’s roadways 

—many of which were constructed in the 1950s 

and 1960s with engineering lifespans of 25 to 50 

years. While certain states or regions face more 

severe pavement quality issues than do other 

states, state of good repair is an issue across the 

nation, particularly on urban and rural roads off 

of the NHS. Poor conditions on roads and bridges 

THE AVERAGE AMOUNT OF TIME 

THAT AMERICAN AUTO COMMUTERS 

LOST DUE TO CONGESTION DELAYS 

HAS NEARLY TRIPLED SINCE 1982.
HIGHWAYS AND MOTOR VEHICLES 140

ONE QUARTER OF THE BRIDGES 

IN OUR TRANSPORTATION 

SYSTEM ARE EITHER 

STRUCTURALLY DEFICIENT OR 

FUNCTIONALLY OBSOLETE.

threaten to increase vehicle operating costs, 

produce time delays, and increase the frequency 

of crashes.

Bridge conditions are improving, but significant 

investments are needed to address continued 

maintenance backlogs on our nation’s bridges. 

Of the 611,845 public road bridges, 58,791 were 

classified as structurally deficient in 2015, and 

another 84,124 were classified as functionally 

obsolete. In other words, nearly one quarter of 

the bridges in our transportation system are not 

meeting today’s standards. A bridge classified 

as structurally deficient or functionally obsolete 

is not unsafe, but may require the posting of a 

vehicle weight or height restriction.

Over the past decades, governments have 

prioritized bridge maintenance and have made 

the investments necessary to improve the 

conditions of bridges. Since 1990, the number 

of bridges classified as structurally deficient or 

functionally obsolete have been gradually falling. 

However, fixing and replacing bridges can be 

costly. In recent years more than 15 percent of 

state capital spending on highways has gone to 

bridge rehabilitation and replacement.

Declining Revenues

The erosion of fuel tax revenues has made it 

close to impossible for many states and regions 

to maintain a state of good repair and an 

acceptable level of service on our roadways. The 

federal gas tax has not been increased since 

1993 and inflation has reduced the purchasing 

power of gas tax revenues. Increasing fuel 

efficiency and reduced vehicle travel have 

compounded this problem as inflation-adjusted 

federal gas tax revenue fell by $15 billion, or 

31 percent, from 2002 to 2012. Over the same 

period, state gas tax revenues decreased by 

$10 billion, or 19 percent, adjusting for inflation. 

Consequently, in 2010, user charges accounted 

for just $93 billion out of a total $205 billion 

in all highway revenue, as governments have 

increasingly resorted to alternative revenue 

sources to fund highway expenditures. 

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates 

that, to prevent future shortfalls and preserve 

current levels of spending without transferring 

additional funds, lawmakers would either 

need to reduce federal highway obligations by 

approximately 25 to 30 percent or raise the gas 

tax by about 10 to 15 cents per gallon. CBO has 

further determined that simply maintaining 

current levels of federal highway spending would 
141 BEYOND TRAFFIC

$100

$80

$60

$40

$20

0

-$20

-$40

-$60

-$80

-$100

-$120

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Billions

Estimated Federal-Aid Highway Needs

Outlays

Receipts

Highway

Trust 

Fund 

Balance

Projected Highway Trust Fund Balance

THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION 

OF STATE HIGHWAY AND 

TRANSPORTATION OFFICIALS 

(AASHTO) RECENTLY ESTIMATED 

THE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS 

NEEDED FROM ALL LEVELS OF 

GOVERNMENT TO MAINTAIN 

THE PERFORMANCE OF OUR 

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM. EVEN 

THEIR MOST CONSERVATIVE 

ESTIMATES SHOW AN ANNUAL 

INVESTMENT GAP OF TENS 

OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS.

require a minimum of $11-12 billion more per 

year. FHWA has estimated that at least $24 billion 

in additional capital spending would be required 

from all levels of government to improve highway 

system performance.

In the coming years, higher fuel standards will 

increase our energy independence, reduce air 

pollution, and lower costs for consumers, but 

they will also reduce fuel tax revenues. The CBO 

has estimated that the higher fuel efficiency 

standards already in place will reduce fuel tax 

revenues by 21 percent by 2040. Breakthroughs 

in renewable fuels, electric vehicles, or 

automation could lead to further decreases in 

fuel tax revenues over the next 30 years. 

Looking to the future, innovations in highway 

financing and highway revenue sources could 

help to address revenue shortfalls. Finding 

new revenue sources that are not tied to fuel 
HIGHWAYS AND MOTOR VEHICLES 142

County Governments Use Federal Funding to Rebuild Roads in 

Rural Mississippi

In one rural part of Mississippi, three counties—Claiborne, Franklin and Jefferson 

counties—struggle to maintain high-quality roadways. Many roads are deteriorating 

faster than county governments can repair them, and 60 area bridges have been rated 

as deficient. 

In recognition of this challenge, the U.S. DOT recently awarded $17.8 million in TIGER 

grant funding to support the Three-County Roadway Improvements Program, also 

known as TRI-Mississippi. Through TRI-Mississippi, the three county governments 

are undertaking a series of improvements that will modernize 41 miles of roads and 

18 substandard bridges. Across the nation, projects like TRI-Mississippi are making 

American lives easier by connecting them with employers, schools, and services. While 

the need for infrastructure investment is great, projects like these demonstrate that 

local governments have the power to ensure that their communities have access to 

reliable transportation options.

consumption such as taxes on vehicle miles 

traveled, vehicle registration fees, or sales taxes 

could help to alleviate the downward pressure on 

revenues caused by declining fuel consumption. 

Expanding the use of tolling and congestion 

pricing could help to reduce congestion while 

generating revenues that could be used to 

finance the construction of new roadways and 

bridges or maintain existing facilities. Publicprivate partnerships, where the private sector 

finances the construction of new capacity, could 

be used to accelerate the timeline of some 

transportation projects and shift a greater share 

of the risks of delivering transportation projects 

to the private sector.

Automated and Connected 

Vehicles

New technologies will have significant 

implications for the operations and use of 

roadways and motor vehicles, including changes 

to how we drive, how we choose where and 

whether or not to drive, and how we pay for 

using roadways. There is a significant opportunity 

for new technology to expand capacity and 

efficiency of our roads and other transportation 

systems, and to also expand the travel options 

available to us, while also allowing transportation 

agencies to collect user fees that accurately 

reflect the cost of the service provided while 

ensuring the privacy of individuals. Automation, 

connected vehicles, and advancing automotive 

technologies offer some of the most potentially 

transformative changes, enhancing safety 

through obstacle detection systems, and 

potentially expanding capacity on roads by 

enabling vehicles to travel more closely together. 

Continued introduction of automation features 

to vehicles will lead to improvements in safety 

and could enhance the capacity of our roadways. 

While the technical feasibility of these features is 

becoming increasingly apparent, the timeline for 

the mainstream adoption of automated features 

and the impact of these features on safety, 

highway capacity, and travel and settlement 
143 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Distracted Driving: A Serious Safety Concern

Distracted driving is a dangerous epidemic on America’s roadways. In 2012 alone, 3,328 

people were killed in distracted driving crashes. Distracted driving involves all types of 

distractions from adjusting the radio to reading a map, but the use of text messaging 

is by far the most alarming source of distraction. At highway speeds a car can travel 

the length of a football field in the time it takes to read a text message. Texting while 

driving makes it 23 times more likely a driver could end up in a crash and causes an 

estimated 1,600,000 accidents per year. Yet, more than half of young adult drivers 

claim it is easy to text and drive. As the use of mobile devices increases in our society 

there is a real concern that this problem may only get worse.

patterns remains unclear. The advance of these 

potentially transformative technologies makes it 

difficult for transportation planners to plan for 

long-term transportation system needs. 

Improving Safety

Safety on America’s highways has dramatically 

improved over the past several decades. Cars 

and roadways have become safer, seatbelt use 

has increased, and alcohol-impaired driving rates 

have declined. Over the past decade, the number 

of people killed in crashes on American highways 

has declined by 25 percent. 

Despite these improvements, motor vehicle 

crashes remain among the leading causes of 

death for Americans under the age of 64. In 2014, 

32,675 individuals lost their lives in motor vehicle 

crashes. Of those, nearly one-third were killed 

in a crash involving an alcohol-impaired driver. 

Nearly half of those killed were not wearing a 

seatbelt. 

Demographic trends, technological advances, 

and improvements to traffic safety enforcement, 

education, and engineering are likely to lead to 

continued safety improvements in the next 30 

years. As our population grows more urban, 

more driving will likely take place on safer roads 

at slower speeds. Stronger restrictions on youth 

driving and an overall aging of our population 

may contribute to reduced incidents of reckless 

driving. Continued education and enforcement 

efforts will be needed in the future as issues such 

as distracted driving threaten the safety of our 

roadways. 

Advances in automation and connected vehicle 

technology will likely contribute to sustained 

improvements in safety. Safety features such 

as airbags, antilock braking systems, electronic 

stability control, rearview and blind spot cameras, 

lane departure warnings, and adaptive cruise 

control have all made vehicles much safer. 

Policy Implications

Personal motor vehicles will continue to be a 

predominant mode of travel, despite shifting 

demographics and economic climates, but the 

rate of growth in vehicle miles traveled will 

increase at a lower rate than that experienced 

over the last 30 years. Over the next 30 years, 

several policy options will be critical to how 

highways are utilized, paid for, and maintained:
HIGHWAYS AND MOTOR VEHICLES 144

Vehicle Safety Recalls 

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has the authority to issue vehicle 

safety standards and to require manufacturers to recall vehicles that have safetyrelated defects or do not meet federal safety standards. In 2014, more than 60 million 

vehicles were recalled, double the previous annual record of 30 million. 

Manufacturers voluntarily initiate many of these recalls, while others are either 

influenced by NHTSA investigations or ordered by NHTSA via the courts. If a safety 

defect is discovered, the manufacturer must notify NHTSA, as well as vehicle or 

equipment owners, dealers, and distributors. The manufacturer is then required to 

remedy the problem at no charge to the owner. NHTSA is responsible for monitoring 

the manufacturer’s corrective action. Consumers, however, are not required to fix 

their vehicle regardless of the severity of a safety defect and the recall completion rate 

has been estimated at around 75 percent. This means that unsafe vehicles remain 

on the road and may be resold. Furthermore, NHTSA does not have the authority to 

notify potential used car buyers of a defect. One potential solution would be to ban 

the sale and rental of unfixed, recalled vehicles or to increase the authority to levy civil 

penalties against automakers who fail to act quickly on vehicle recalls. 

3⁄4 Identifying sustainable funding mechanisms 

to offset the decreasing purchasing power 

of motor fuel taxes, and increasing federal 

credit assistance and private financing 

options for roadway improvements.

3⁄4 Utilizing technology to create seamless 

intermodal travel routes, schedules, payment 

systems, and traveler information.

3⁄4 Improving access to current and emerging 

shared transportation modes (bike share, car 

share, transit, etc.) through public education, 

affordability, and infrastructure investment. 

3⁄4 Prioritizing investments in key transportation 

corridors to provide reliable freight and 

passenger movement.

3⁄4 Ensuring that states and law enforcement 

agencies take steps to address distracted 

driving.

References

History

● Row, Karen Stufflebeam, Eva LaDow, and Steve 

Moler. Public Roads. 2004. “Glenwood Canyon 12 

Years Later.” March/April. (http://www.fhwa.dot.

gov/publications/publicroads/04mar/04.cfm)

● Weingroff, Richard F. Public Roads. “Federal 

Aid Road Act of 1916: Building the Foundation.” 

Summer 1996. (https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/

publications/publicroads/96summer/p96su2.cfm)

● Williamson, John. Congressional Research Service. 

2012. Federal Aid to Roads and Highways Since the 

18th Century: A Legislative History. January. (http://

fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42140.pdf) 

Increasing Congestion

● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration, FHWA 

Forecasts of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): May 

2015. https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/

tables/vmt/vmt_forecast_sum.pdf
145 BEYOND TRAFFIC

● Puentes, Robert. International Transport 

Forum. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. 2013. Have 

Americans Hit Peak Travel? A discussion of the 

changes in U.S. driving habits. February. (http://

www.internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/

DiscussionPapers/DP201214.pdf)

● Texas A&M Transportation Institute and INRIX, 

“2015 Urban Mobility Scorecard,” August 2015. 

http://d2dtl5nnlpfr0r.cloudfront.net/tti.tamu.edu/

documents/mobility-scorecard-2015-wappx.pdf

Aging Highways and Bridges

● FHWA, National Bridge Inventory: Deficient Bridges 

by State and Highway System 2014. https://www.

fhwa.dot.gov/bridge/nbi/no10/defbr14.cfm

● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration and (FTA) 

Federal Transit Administration. 2013. 2013 Status 

of the Nation’s Highways, Bridges, and Transit: 

Conditions & Performance. (http://www.fhwa.dot.

gov/policy/2013cpr/pdfs/cp2013.pdf) 

Declining Revenues

● Congressional Budget Office, How Would Proposed 

Fuel Economy Standards Affect the Highway Trust 

Fund? May 2012. https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/

files/112th-congress-2011-2012/reports/05-02-

CAFE_brief.pdf

● Schroeder, Ingrid and Anne Stauffer, et al. The 

Pew Charitable Trusts. 2014. Intergovernmental 

Challenges in Surface Transportation Funding. 

September. 

● Status of the Highway Trust Fund Options for 

Paying for Highway Spending. Testimony Before 

the Committee on Finance, United States Senate. 

Statement of Joseph Kile, Assistant Director for 

Microeconomic Studies, Congressional Budget 

Office. June 18, 2015.(https://www.cbo.gov/

sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/

reports/50297-TransportationTestimony-Senate_1.

pdf)

Safety

● (CDC) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

Injury Prevention & Control: Motor Vehicle 

Safety; “Distracted Driving.” (http://www.cdc.gov/

motorvehiclesafety/distracted_driving)

● (CDC) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

Injury Prevention & Control: Motor Vehicle Safety; 

“Impaired Driving: Get the Facts.” (http://www.cdc.

gov/motorvehiclesafety/impaired_driving/impaireddrv_factsheet.html)

● (CDC) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

Injury Prevention & Control: Motor Vehicle Safety; 

“Seat Belts: Get the Facts.” (http://www.cdc.gov/

Motorvehiclesafety/seatbelts/facts.html) (NHTSA) 

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. 

2014 Crash Data Key Findings. November 2015. 

(http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/812219.pdf)

Figure. Increase in Vehicle Miles 

Traveled and Miles of Roadway

● (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National 

Transportation Statistics; “Table 1-4: Public Road 

and Street Mileage in the United States by Type of 

Surface.” (http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.

gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_

statistics/html/table_01_04.html) 

● (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National 

Transportation Statistics; “Table 1-36: Roadway 

Vehicle-Miles Traveled (VMT) and VMT per LaneMile by Functional Class (a).” (http://www.rita.dot.

gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/

national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_36.

html)

Figure. Trust Fund Shortfalls.

● Congressional Budget Office, Table 5. Summary of 

Cash Flows for Accounts in the Highway Trust Fund 

Under Provisions of the FAST Act, https://www.cbo.

gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/

costestimate/hr22_1.pdf

Figure. Estimated Surface 

Transportation Investment Gap

● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration and (FTA) 

Federal Transit Administration. 2013. 2013 Status 

of the Nation’s Highways, Bridges, and Transit: 

Conditions & Performance. (http://www.fhwa.dot.

gov/policy/2013cpr/pdfs/cp2013.pdf) 
TRANSIT 146

TRANSIT

Public transit in America is experiencing a 

resurgence. Public transit ridership is the 

highest it has been in more than 50 years. Over 

the past two decades public transit ridership 

has increased by nearly 25 percent, outpacing 

the rate of national population growth and 

VMT growth over the same period. Cities and 

counties across the country are expanding transit 

services—whether in traditional transit cities 

in the Northeast, such as New York City and 

Boston, or in the once exclusively autocentric 

cities of Los Angeles and Phoenix. Over the past 

decade, new rail transit systems have opened. 

Demand-response transit services, services that 

dispatch cars, vans, or small buses to respond 

to reservation requests by riders are expanding 

rapidly as well. Rural areas are even getting into 

the act; today more than three-quarters of all 

counties in America have some level of rural 

transit service. 

Nationwide, public transit accounts for less 

than 5 percent of all trips to and from work, and 

approximately 2 percent of all trips; however, 

it performs a number of critical functions, 

including alleviating congestion and pollution in 

large metropolitan areas and providing a critical 

transportation option to those who cannot or 

choose not to drive. By one estimate, if public 

transit services in the 15 largest metropolitan 

areas in America were eliminated and their riders 

shifted to private vehicle travel, it would result in 

a 24 percent increase in traffic congestion.

Many of the trends highlighted in this document, 

such as growing urban populations or the 

emergence of ride-sourcing services, could have 

a major impact on public transit over the next 30 

years. These trends include:

● Growing populations in metropolitan areas 

and changing attitudes toward travel will 

likely increase demand for public transit 

services. 

● Declining fuel tax revenues could constrain 

federal support for the expansion and 

maintenance of aging public transit systems 

leading to increasing maintenance backlogs 

and higher transit fares.

● Enhanced information and communications 

technologies are improving the convenience 

of transit and the efficiency and 

responsiveness of public transit services.

● Emerging vehicle technologies are providing 

opportunities for continued improvements 

to the safety and fuel efficiency of new 

public transit vehicles.

● Climate change will increase the vulnerability 

of some public transit systems, particularly 

those in low-lying areas, to flooding. 

History

In the 19th century, public transit was a popular 

and transformative innovation. As public transit 

modes developed from horse- and cable-drawn 

trolley systems to suburban rail services and, 

eventually, modern subways and motorized 

buses, workers and residents used them to seek 

respite from overcrowded city centers, pushing 

the boundaries of urban development outwards. 

Transit systems were privately owned, profitdriven operations often established to support 
147 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Who Uses Transit?

Public transit is as popular as it has been in 50 years. Transit use is growing across 

all age groups and ethnicities and in regions across the country. But- who are transit 

users?

Not surprisingly, transit users are more likely to live in areas with convenient and 

reliable transit systems. Transit users also tend to be regular riders; trips to work and 

school account for approximately 70 percent of all trips. Those who earn less than 

$50,000 per year are more likely to be regular transit riders than those who earn 

between $50,000 and $150,000 per year. Transit ridership is also higher among those 

who make more than $150,000 per year. Approximately 30 percent of transit riders 

come from households that do not own a car. Finally, those under the age of 30 are 

more than twice as likely as those over the age of 30 to use transit.

real estate ventures in the areas they would 

serve. 

The advent of the automobile, the creation 

of the modern freeway system, and the 

suburbanization of America’s population 

changed all of this. Public transit ridership 

peaked in 1946, and then declined rapidly. 

By 1963, ridership had dropped to one-third 

of its peak level. Local government agencies 

took over public transit systems, which were 

no longer profitable for private operators. 

When the Urban Mass Transportation Act of 

1964 established the agency now known as the 

Federal Transit Administration (FTA), the federal 

government began to provide assistance to 

those local agencies. Despite the federal role in 

transit, ridership flagged through the 1990s, as 

Americans spent more and more of their time in 

cars. 

Increasing Ridership and 

Service

In the 1990s, after decades of public investments 

to improve and expand public transit services, 

ridership started to grow again. Over the past 

two decades, public transit ridership, led by 

increased rail transit system use, has grown by 

more than 20 percent, or approximately the 

same pace as metropolitan area population 

growth. Increasing populations in urban areas 

and expansions in public transit service have 

helped to spur increasing ridership. The fastest 

growing cities for sheer numbers of transit rides 

over the last 20 years include traditional transitoriented cities like New York, Washington, D.C., 

Boston, Philadelphia, and Chicago as well as fastgrowing cities with expanding transit systems 

such as Seattle, Miami, Las Vegas, Denver, and 

San Diego. 

Many public transit agencies have substantially 

expanded service; since 1995, public transit 

vehicle revenue service hours, a measure of 

public transit service, have increased by 46 

percent. Over that same time period, commuter 

rail service has increased by nearly 50 percent, 

while the amount of light rail service has more 

than doubled and on-demand paratransit 

services have tripled. 
TRANSIT 148

-6%

228%

48%

162%

63%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

220%

240%

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 

2011 

2013 

Percent Growth in Trips Since 1990 

Growth in Ridership by Transit Mode

Heavy Rail

Commuter Rail

Light Rail

Bus

Demand Response

Transit agencies are also investing in new buses, 

bus shelters, and fare systems to make bus 

services more accessible and convenient. While 

the use of traditional transit bus services has 

declined in recent decades, the use of on-demand 

services, van service, and other innovative on-theroad transit services have increased rapidly. Bus 

rapid transit (BRT) systems, where buses typically 

have priority right of way and operate at faster 

speeds, have been established in cities such as 

Boston, Cleveland, Miami, Eugene, Las Vegas, Los 

Angeles, Pittsburgh, and Seattle.

Population growth in urban areas, increasing 

congestion on roadways, and changing 

attitudes toward travel are factors that are 

likely to contribute to continued gains in transit 

ridership over the next 30 years. Increased 

interest in the development of compact, mixeduse development near transit facilities, or 

transit-oriented development, may also help to 

increase transit ridership and conserve land in 

metropolitan areas. California, for example, is 

embarking on an ambitious program to build 

affordable housing near transit as part of an 

effort to reduce greenhouse gas pollution from 

auto emissions.

Significant progress has also been achieved in 

increasing the accessibility of transit stations 

to Americans with disabilities. Over the past 20 

years, transit agencies have made major capital 

investments to make nearly all of America’s 

busiest public transit stations Americans with 

Disabilities Act (ADA)-accessible. Today, nearly 

all public transit buses and two-thirds of public 

transit stations are ADA-accessible.

Rising Costs of Service

While ridership has increased over the past two 

decades, aging vehicles and infrastructure are 

increasing the costs of maintaining our public 

transit systems in a state of good repair. As 
149 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Improving Transit Safety

The passenger fatality rate on public transit is approximately one-twentieth the rate of 

private motor vehicles, and the rate of transit fatalities has been more or less constant 

since 2004. Excluding suicides, the fatality rate for transit passengers is very low: one 

death for each 250 million passenger miles traveled. Despite this impressive record, 

transit safety could still be improved—safety gains have been far slower than those 

seen in other modes, and several high-profile rail transit safety incidents led to the 

extension of federal safety oversight to transit in 2012.

a whole, public transit systems in our nation 

face a repair backlog totaling more than $100 

billion. At current levels of investment this 

backlog is expected to grow to $141 billion by 

2030. Addressing this investment backlog would 

require public transit agencies to increase their 

current spending on system preservation from 

approximately $10 billion to $18 billion annually.

As ridership grows, higher levels of investment 

will be needed to maintain the current level of 

service. To support the growth rate in ridership 

we’ve seen over the past 15 years at the same 

level of service, public transit agencies would 

need to invest an estimated $7 billion annually 

in system expansion. To effectively maintain the 

conditions and level of service on our current 

public transit systems, the vast majority of these 

investments would need to be made in large 

urbanized areas with heavy transit use like New 

York, San Francisco, and Chicago, where they are 

most needed.

Generating funding sufficient to meet the 

growing needs of our public transit system will 

mean that governments will have to find ways to 

increase revenues to support transit. Increasing 

ridership can help increase the revenues from 

fares, but fares cover only about 24 percent of 

the approximately $66 billion spent annually 

to provide public transit services in America. 

Beyond fare collection, the remainder of transit 

funding comes from various federal, state, local, 

and private sources. Federal, state, and local 

fuel taxes provide approximately $10 billion in 

funding, while states and locals use sales and 

fuel tax revenues, General Funds, and other 

sources of dedicated tax revenues to pay for the 

difference.

Barring increased funding to address system 

preservation needs, public transit costs are 

likely to grow in the coming decades as systems 

continue to expand and age. Public transit 

operating costs are likely to increase as new 

transit services expand to less densely populated 

cities and an aging population drives demand 

for paratransit services. Meeting these needs will 

require innovative strategies to operate more 

efficiently and generate revenues to support 

targeted investments. 

Technologies Transforming 

Public Transit

Improving information and communication 

technologies are increasing the convenience 

of transit by providing real-time schedule 

information and simple, seamless fare payment. 

The same technologies are making data on 

public transit increasingly easy to access and 

use, allowing public transit agencies to improve 
TRANSIT 150

operations. Information on trips by time of day, 

for example, can allow public transit agencies 

to model the impacts of different detours, lane 

closures, or route changes for bus services.

As data capabilities increase in the coming 

years, improved traffic and demand data could 

allow for more dynamic, demand-responsive 

scheduling and dispatching of buses potentially 

replacing some late night or mid-day fixed-route 

services. Using sensors and mobile technologies, 

public transit systems could also be used as 

probes to collect information on traffic and 

roadway conditions for local and regional 

transportation agencies.

In addition to data and mobile technologies, 

automation and connected vehicle technologies 

promise to improve the safety, efficiency, and 

convenience of public transit activities. For 

example, signal systems at intersections can be 

connected to transit system information to allow 

for signal prioritization to ensure that buses 

stay on schedule and maintain headways. PTC, 

which uses digital and radio communications and 

GPS systems to allow dispatchers to remotely 

manage trains, and CBTC, which uses two-way 

communications between intelligent trains and 

wayside computers to determine train location 

and speed, have the potential to improve the 

efficiency of public transit costs and improve 

PUBLIC TRANSIT SYSTEMS IN OUR 

NATION FACE AN ESTIMATED 

$86 BILLION BACKLOG IN 

PRESERVATION INVESTMENTS, A 

BACKLOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO 

GROW TO $141 BILLION BY 2030.

Transit Accessibility for 

Americans with Disabilities

100%

75%

50%

25%

0

1996199820002002200420062008201020122014

ADA Equipped Buses

ADA Accessible Transit Stations

68.4%

99.7%

safety on transit rail systems. New urban transit 

systems constructed in the next 30 years will 

be able to take advantage of PTC and other 

automation technologies. Driverless vehicles, 

meanwhile, will improve the productivity of bus 

transit and potentially allow for the expansion of 

bus routes. 

Over the past decade public transit agencies 

have demonstrated that they are well positioned 

to take advantage of advances in fuel cell 

technologies, electric vehicle engines, and other 

vehicle energy technologies to reduce emissions 

and save on fuel costs. The percentage of buses 

using compressed or LNG or biodiesel in our 

nation’s public transit fleet increased from 

7 percent in 2000 to 25 percent in 2014. An 

additional 17 percent of transit buses run on 

electric or hybrid-electric engines. As domestic 

production of natural gas expands, public transit 

agencies are likely to convert their buses to run 

on more efficient liquefied natural gas rather 

than diesel fuel or gasoline. 
151 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Alternative Power Use by Transit Bus Fleets 

1996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

40%

30%

20%

10%

0

Biodiesel

Electric and Hybrid

CNG and LNG

Percent of All Transit Buses

NO DATA AVAILABLE

Adapting to Climate Change

Many of our busiest public transit systems, 

including those in the New York-Newark 

metropolitan area, which account for more than 

40 percent of daily transit ridership nationwide, 

serve coastal metropolitan areas that are highly 

vulnerable to sea-level rise and frequent storm 

surges. Transit assets, such as subway or bus 

tunnels, rail yards, tracks, and control signals 

are often located underground and in low-lying 

areas and are especially vulnerable to flooding. 

To prepare for the effects of climate change, 

public transit agencies with at-risk assets will 

need to assess the resiliency of their assets to 

climate change hazards, such as heat waves and 

flooding, and develop adaptation strategies, such 

as retrofitting existing assets to prevent water 

incursion and siting new facilities outside of 

expanded flood plains. 

Conclusion

In the next 30 years, public transit may take on a 

larger overall share of commuting and local nonwork travel. However, many factors influence 

an individual’s choice of travel mode, including 

availability, cost, and convenience. Expanding 

public transit would help promote mode-shift, 

but the benefits of these investments must be 

weighed with the costs, since expanding and 

maintaining rail transit infrastructure requires 

high initial investments and long-term financial 

commitment to reasonable levels of service and 

proper maintenance. Policy options to preserve 

and expand public transit’s vital role include:

● Investing in the reconstruction and 

rehabilitation of existing public transit 

services that are in critical need of repair.

● Decreasing total travel-time and increasing 

the reliability and frequency of public transit 

services.
TRANSIT 152

● Investing in bus rapid transit services by 

converting existing general-purpose travel 

lanes into connected regional networks of 

dedicated bus-only right of way to greatly 

improve safety, access, travel speeds, 

frequency, and reliability.

● Identifying sustainable funding mechanisms 

to offset the decreasing purchase power of 

fuel taxes.

● Increasing use of performance 

measurements to direct funds for state of 

good repair.

● Promoting the use of common technologies 

and platforms to make public transit 

payments more seamless and convenient. 

References

History

● Schrank, David et al. TTI’s 2011 Urban Mobility 

Report, http://nacto.org/docs/usdg/2011_urban_

mobility_report_schrank.pdf

● Thompson, Louis S. Thompson Galenson and 

Associates. 2008. Public Transportation in the U.S.: 

History and Current Status. March.

● (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/

INTURBANTRANSPORT/Resources/Thompson-PThistory-USA_08.pdf)

Increasing Ridership and Service

● American Public Transportation Association. 

Resource Library; “Ridership Report Archives.” 

Analysis by Volpe, The National Transportation 

Systems Center. (http://www.apta.com/resources/

statistics/Pages/RidershipArchives.aspx) 

● (FTA) Federal Transit Administration. 2013. Transit 

Profiles: 2012 Report Year Summary. October. 

(http://www.ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/pubs/

profiles/2012/Transit%20Profiles%202012%20

Report%20Year%20Summary.pdf)

● (GAO) Government Accountability Office. 2012. 

“ADA Paratransit Services: Demand Has Increased, 

but Little is Known about Compliance. November. 

(http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/650079.pdf) 

Rising Costs of Service

● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration and (FTA) 

Federal Transit Administration. 2013. 2013 Status 

of the Nation’s Highways, Bridges, and Transit: 

Conditions & Performance. (http://www.fhwa.dot.

gov/policy/2013cpr/pdfs/cp2013.pdf)

● (FTA) Federal Transit Administration. National 

Transit Database. Historical Data Files; “TS1 – 

Operating and Capital Funding.” (http://www.

ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/data.htm)

Technologies Transforming Public 

Transit

● Neff, John and Matthew Dickens. American Public 

Transportation Association. 2015. 2015 Public 

Transportation Fact Book: Appendix A. September. 

(http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Pages/

transitstats.aspx)

Figure. Transit Accessibility for 

Americans with Disabilities

● (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National 

Transportation Statistics; “Table 1-8: ADA Lift- or 

Ramp-Equipped Transit Buses.” (http://www.rita.

dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/

national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_08.

html) 

● (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National 

Transportation Statistics; “Table 1-9: ADAAccessible Rail Transit Stations by Agency.” (http://

www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/

publications/national_transportation_statistics/

html/table_01_09.html)

Figure. Alternative Fuel Use by Transit 

Buses

● APTA, 2015 American Public Transportation 

Association Fact Book, Appendix A. Table 34.
153 BEYOND TRAFFIC

PEDESTRIANS AND 

CYCLISTS

Walking, running, and cycling offer an appealing, 

active, and affordable travel alternative for 

many Americans. Together, cycling, running, 

and walking make up a substantial proportion 

of local trips that people take for non-work 

purposes, particularly in urban areas. Together, 

they account for approximately one-half of all 

trips taken under one mile and more than 10 

percent of all trips of any length. Over the next 

three decades, trends that will affect walking and 

cycling include:

● Cycling and pedestrian activities will 

continue to grow in popularity as 

metropolitan areas grow in population, 

lifestyle preferences change, and 

infrastructure is adapted to accommodate 

their use.

● Cities and towns across the country will 

increasingly invest in pedestrian and bicycle 

friendly infrastructure to accommodate 

greater demand for these modes.

● As people bicycle and walk more frequently, 

pedestrian and bicyclist safety will 

become an increasingly pressing issue for 

policymakers, particularly in urban areas.

Rising Popularity of Walking 

and Cycling

Since the 1960s, as our population has grown 

more suburban and automobile-oriented, cycling 

and walking have declined in popularity. In 1969, 

nearly half of all K-8th grade students walked or 

biked to school; today only 13 percent of children 

walk or bike to school. In 1980, 5.6 percent of 

Americans walked to work; in 2012, only 2.8 

percent of Americans walked to work. However, 

there is evidence to suggest that Americans have 

been walking and bicycling more in recent years. 

For example, national travel survey data show 

that since 1995, walking has increased from 5 

percent of all trips to more than 10 percent of all 

trips, mainly as a result of increases in walking for 

social and recreational purposes. While less than 

1 percent of Americans bike to work on a regular 

basis, the number of regular cycling commuters 

has nearly doubled over the past decade. 

In those cities that are densest—that have 

robust transit systems, high student populations, 

or where significant investments have been 

made in walking and biking facilities— walking 

to work or bicycling are more common. More 

than 10 percent of commuters walk to work in 

four American cities—Boston, Washington, D.C., 

New York, and San Francisco. Portland, Oregon 

had the highest share of cycling commuters: 6.1 

percent. 

OVER THE NEXT 30 YEARS, 

AMERICAN CITIES HAVE 

PLANNED TENS OF THOUSANDS 

OF NEW BIKE FACILITIES.
PEDESTRIANS AND CYCLISTS 154

Increasing Investments in 

Pedestrian- and Bike-Friendly 

Infrastructure

Legacy infrastructure designed to accommodate 

heavy automobile traffic complicates travel by 

walking or bicycling. Over the last decade, many 

cities have made a commitment to change this, 

adopting complete streets policies to ensure 

roads are designed for all users, including public 

transit vehicles, walkers, and cyclists. Techniques 

used to accommodate walking and bicycling 

include “road diets,” pedestrian and bicycling 

walk signals, and separated bicycle lanes. 

Cities throughout the country are expanding 

their bike lane networks. This is not only 

happening in large metropolises like New York 

City, San Francisco, and Chicago, but bike lanes 

are in the planning or construction phases 

in Louisville, KY; Raleigh, NC; the Buckhead 

neighborhood of Atlanta; Ferndale, MI; Rutland, 

VT; and Elyria, OH. Several American cities have 

also introduced a new infrastructure element: 

bicycle-sharing programs that put bicycles on 

the street for short-term rental. In cities in which 

such programs have been implemented, these 

systems have increased the use of bicycles, 

particularly as a way to make connections to 

public transit.

Federal funding for pedestrian and bicycle 

improvements increased significantly beginning 

in 1991. Federal funding peaked in 2009 as a 

result of the federal stimulus programs, but 

overall spending levels remain more than double 

what they were a decade ago. In 2015, federal 

transportation programs provided $834 million in 

funding for pedestrian and bicycle facilities and 

programs. This amounted to approximately 2 

percent of total federal transportation funding.
155 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Federal-Aid Highway Program Funding for 

Pedestrian and Bicycle Facilities and Programs

Millions

1992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142015

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Safety Trends 

Safety for cyclists and walkers has improved 

significantly since 1990. The number of 

pedestrian and cyclist fatalities declined from 

9,035 in 1980 to 5,478 in 2013—a 39 percent 

reduction. Nevertheless, safety for the most 

vulnerable users of our transportation systems 

remains a problem, and we have not had the 

same success in reducing pedestrian and bicyclist 

fatalities that we have had in reducing highway 

fatalities. In fact, the overall number of deaths 

among pedestrians and bicyclists has increased 

since 2009. 

Policy Implications

The following policy options can help build upon 

recent advances to ensure continued growth and 

improved safety in cycling and walking over the 

next 30 years:

● Incentivizing improved pedestrian and 

bicycle infrastructure and mixed-use 

development in and around multimodal 

transit hubs to promote car-free travel;

● Designing and retrofitting of roads to 

allow for safe, harmonious passage of 

vehicles, bicycles, and pedestrians, including 

individuals who use assisted mobility 

devices;

● Educating drivers, bicyclists, and pedestrians 

on their legal responsibilities and sound 

practices to safely share public streets; and,

● Promoting policies that advance safe and 

independent mobility for people with 

disabilities and older adults.
PEDESTRIANS AND CYCLISTS 156

References

Rising Popularity of Walking and 

Cycling

● American Public Transportation Association. 

Pedestrian and Bicycle Information Center. Who’s 

Walking and Bicycling; “Daily Travel Information.” 

(http://www.pedbikeinfo.org/data/factsheet_

general.cfm) 

● McKenzie, Brian. Bureau of the Census. 2014. 

Modes Less Traveled: Bicycling and Walking to Work 

in the United States 2008-2012. May. (http://www.

census.gov/prod/2014pubs/acs-25.pdf)

● National Center for Safe Routes to School. 

2011. How Children Get to School: School Travel 

Patterns From 1969 to 2009. November.(http://

saferoutesinfo.org/sites/default/files/resources/

NHTS_school_travel_report_2011_0.pdf)

Increasing Investments in Pedestrian 

and Bike-Friendly Infrastructure

● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. Bicycle & 

Pedestrian Program; “Federal-Aid Highway Program 

Funding for Pedestrian and Bicycle Facilities and 

Programs.” (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/

bicycle_pedestrian/funding/bipedfund.cfm)

● Milne, Andrea, and Maggie Melin. Alliance for 

Biking & Walking. 2014. Bicycling and Walking in the 

United States: 2014 Benchmarking Report. (https://

www.bikewalkalliance.org/storage/documents/

reports/2014BenchmarkingReport.pdf)

Safety Trends

● Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National 

Transportation Statistics: Table 2-1: Transportation 

Fatalities by Mode. http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/

sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_

transportation_statistics/html/table_02_01.html

● (CDC) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity. 

2011. The CDC Guide to Strategies to Increase 

Physical Activity in the Community. (http://www.cdc.

gov/obesity/downloads/PA_2011_WEB.pdf)

● (DOT) Department of Transportation. 2014. Safer 

People, Safer Streets: Summary of U.S. Department 

of Transportation Action Plan to Increase Walking 

and Biking and Reduce Pedestrian and Bicyclist 

Fatalities. September.(http://www.dot.gov/sites/

dot.gov/files/docs/safer_people_safer_streets_

summary_doc_acc_v1-11-9.pdf)

● NHTSA, 2013 Traffic Safety Facts: Pedestrians, 

http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/812124.pdf

Figure. Federal-Aid Highway Program 

Funding for Pedestrian and Bicycle 

Facilities and Programs

● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. Bicycle & 

Pedestrian; “Federal-Aid Highway Program Funding 

for Pedestrian and Bicycle Facilities and Programs.” 

(http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/bicycle_

pedestrian/funding/bipedfund.cfm) 

Figure. Bicycle and Pedestrian 

Fatalities

● (NHTSA) National Highway Traffic Safety 

Administration. Fatality Analysis Reporting System; 

“Index of /fars/” Analysis by Volpe, the National 

Transportation Systems Center. (ftp://ftp.nhtsa.dot.

gov/fars) 
157 BEYOND TRAFFIC

AVIATION

Our air transportation system connects friends 

and families across the country, supports 

national and international business travel, and 

enables the fast delivery of time-sensitive goods. 

A well-functioning aviation system is critical 

to ensuring our economic growth and way of 

life. Making up a significant component of this 

system, U.S. commercial airlines operate, on 

average, over 29,000 domestic and international 

flights every day carrying approximately of 2 

million passengers and 21,000 tons of cargo. 

Another crucial component of our aviation 

system is general aviation, whose airports form 

an extensive network and make important 

economic contributions to society, providing 

access when scheduled service is either not 

available or inconvenient. 

Over the next 30 years, advancing technology 

and increasing demand for air travel will 

present challenges and opportunities that will 

demand flexible and innovative responses 

from government and industry. Trends that are 

expected to impact aviation in the coming years 

include:

● Growing demand for air passenger and 

cargo traffic will increase air congestion 

and impact service, particularly at busy 

metropolitan airports.

● The maintenance backlog on our aging air 

traffic control facilities and equipment will 

increase.

● NextGen technologies will gradually be 

implemented across our aviation system 

leading to safety improvements, reduced 

delays, and increased fuel efficiency. 

● The commercial use of unmanned aircraft 

systems and space travel will grow as 

technical, regulatory, and operational 

challenges are gradually overcome.

History

The American civil aviation system began 

as a government-run air mail system in the 

early 1900s. As air travel became safer, faster, 

and more convenient its popularity grew and 

by the 1950s air travel became the mode 

of choice for long distance travel. From the 

passage of the Air Commerce Act in 1926, the 

federal government has taken steps to foster 

air commerce and ensure the safety of the air 

transportation system. After World War II air 

traffic control became a federal responsibility 

at most airports. In 1958, the Federal Aviation 

Agency(FAA) was established, and has been 

known as the Federal Aviation Administration 

since 1967, when it became part of the newly 

established Department of Transportation(DOT). 

The Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 created a 

highly competitive airline industry, which in turn 

increased FAA workload exponentially. Since its 

establishment, the FAA has worked to modernize 

the air traffic control system, and enhance safety 

and security throughout the system.

Growing Demand for Air 

Travel

Air travel has grown steadily since the end of 

the Great Recession and is expected to continue 

to grow in the coming years as economic 

and population growth and an increasingly 

globalized economy drive demand for domestic 
AVIATION 158

General Aviation

Most air travelers pass through our 389 primary airports. However, there are more 

than 19,000 airports, heliports, seaplane bases, and other landing facilities in America, 

the majority of which are used primarily for general aviation. General aviation airports 

provide a variety of specialized functions, such as access to remote communities, 

emergency medical services, firefighting, law enforcement and border control, flight 

training, freight and business transportation, agricultural services, and recreational 

aviation.

and international air travel. The total number 

of people flying on U.S. airlines is expected to 

increase by approximately 50 percent over the 

next two decades, while international air travel 

to and from the United States will more than 

double. This could lead to increased workloads 

for air traffic controllers and potentially increase 

congestion at certain busy airports.

Flight delays and congestion cost the economy 

more than $20 billion each year. In 2014, only 

76 percent of domestic flights by U.S. air carriers 

arrived on time. While many flight delays are 

due to weather, high airport terminal volumes 

are a factor in approximately 20 percent of 

all flight delays. Some of the busiest airports 

in the country including the three major New 

York-area airports—Kennedy, La Guardia, and 

Newark—as well as San Francisco International, 

Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Chicago O’Hare, suffer 

from high levels of delays which can cause delays 

throughout the national aviation system. In 2010, 

a GAO review of FAA data found that 80 percent 

of all departure delays can be traced back to 

those seven airports. 

A Dynamic Aviation Industry

Since the turn of the century the commercial 

air carrier industry has suffered several major 

shocks that have led to volatile demand for 

air travel including the terrorist attacks of 

September 11, 2001, rising fuel costs, and a 

severe global recession. In response, airlines 

have adjusted their business models to lower 

operating costs, eliminated unprofitable routes, 

and grounded older, less fuel-efficient planes. 

Starting in 2010, the passenger and cargo airline 

industries have posted net profits. While the 

average cost of a roundtrip ticket in inflationadjusted dollars has dropped 15 percent over 

the last 20 years, many airlines have found ways 

to generate additional revenue by charging 

for services, such as bag fees, that had been 

previously included in the price of a ticket and by 

increasing the number of paying passengers on 

each flight. Load factor—the percentage of seats 

carrying passengers—increased from 69 percent 

in the 1990s to 83 percent today.

To save costs and increase revenues many 

airlines are gradually shifting to larger jets 

that carry more passengers per flight. Industry 

consolidation and streamlining is also leading to 

reductions in the number of flights that service 

smaller, less profitable airports. This has reduced 

access in smaller communities where it may no 

longer be economically viable to provide service 

with larger aircraft. Between 2007 and 2012, 24 

small airports lost network carrier services.
159 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Modernizing Our Nation’s Air 

Traffic System

To make the best use of emerging technology 

to meet the needs of the flying public, FAA has 

committed to major investments in NextGen. 

NextGen is a wide-ranging transformation of the 

air transportation system, including air traffic 

management technologies and procedures; 

airport infrastructure improvements; and 

environmental, safety, and security-related 

enhancements. NextGen technologies use 

satellite navigation to allow planes to fly more 

direct routes closer together, saving fuel and 

reducing delays. 

The overall vision of this system includes the use 

of digital communication, satellite surveillance, 

improved navigation technologies, and more 

advanced safety systems to increase the 

capacity of the National Airspace System and the 

predictability of flights. New digital technologies 

will improve flight and weather information and 

enhance communications among pilots and 

air traffic controllers. FAA estimates that over 

the next 15 years NextGen could result in more 

than $130 billion in social benefits from avoided 

delays and cancellations, reduced flight times, 

and other benefits. 

Significant financial investment from the aviation 

industry and the public is required to achieve 

the benefits of NextGen. FAA’s total investment 

in NextGen is projected to be $14 billion from 

2013 to 2030 in addition to the costs necessary 

to continue to operate and maintain existing 

systems and infrastructure. 

Many NextGen benefits require large numbers 

of aircraft with the necessary avionics to be 

equipped in order to accrue the maximum 

amount of benefit. Some commercial aircraft 

are already equipped with the building blocks 

for certain NextGen capabilities but retrofitting 

previously unequipped aircraft could prove costly 

to operators. FAA estimates that over the next 

15 years, $15 billion in expenditures is required 

from aircraft operators to equip their aircraft 

with NextGen avionics.

The Airport and Airway Trust Fund (AATF) 

provides the primary source of funding for FAA 

and receives revenues principally from a variety 

of excise taxes paid by users of the national 

airspace system. In the last five fiscal years, 

approximately 60 percent of FAA funding was 

dedicated to operating our air traffic control 

system and safety programs. About 20 percent 

of funding was for the Airport Improvement 

Program (AIP), which provides grants to 

airports for projects that generally enhance 

capacity, safety, or environmental concerns, 

such as runway construction and rehabilitation, 

airfield lighting, and airplane noise mitigation. 

Remaining FAA funds are used for modernization 

and maintenance of air traffic facilities and 

equipment, and research, engineering, and 

development of new air traffic technologies such 

as NextGen.

Constrained budgets have resulted in deferral of 

maintenance of today’s air traffic control system 

infrastructure over the last several years, placing 

at risk reliability in operations and resilience in 

emergency situations. Some types of critical air 

traffic control facilities are many decades old, 

though replacing and/or consolidating them 

requires substantial investment. Under the 

current budget environment, FAA’s maintenance 

backlog is expected to continue growing.

Running a complex enterprise operating 24 

hours a day while undertaking as large and 

sophisticated an infrastructure project as 

modernizing the entire national airspace system 

presents governance challenges, especially 

in the face of conflicting priorities within 
AVIATION 160

Commercial Space Transportation

Commercial space transportation and the services it enables, such as weather 

forecasts, emergency and disaster response, and credit card payments, accounted 

for more than $208 billion in economic activity in 2009. Today, commercial space 

transportation is used for launching satellites into orbit, as well as delivering cargo 

to and from the International Space Station and conducting science and technology 

demonstrations. There is also increasing momentum behind space tourism—space 

travel flights for the general public. 

constrained budgets. FAA has improved program 

management focus and increased collaboration 

with industry—resulting in improved safety, 

program performance, and aligned prioritization 

with industry on which NextGen capabilities to 

deploy together over the next few years—but 

continues to seek opportunities for further 

improvements.

Integrating Unmanned 

Aircraft Systems (UAS) 

In recent years private sector interest in UAS 

has increased at a rapid rate. The private sector 

sees the potential for a wide range of uses of 

UAS from crop dusting and land surveying to 

humanitarian disaster response and filmmaking. 

A recent U.S. DOT report commissioned by the 

United States Air Force estimated that between 

public and commercial uses, the total number of 

UAS vehicles in operation will reach 250,000 by 

the year 2035. 

FAA first allowed the use of UAS in the national 

airspace system in 1990. Most UAS that are 

allowed to operate today are used for security, 

research, and environmental monitoring 

purposes. UAS operations over major urban 

areas, where there tend to be high densities 
161 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Aviation Accidents

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

General Aviation Fatalities

Commercial Airline Fatalities

U.S. Airline Accidents 

per 100,000 departures

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

of manned aircraft, is limited and approved 

on a case-by-case basis. Existing restrictions 

on the use of UAS have been based around 

concerns about the safety and intent of use of 

these vehicles. New regulations targeted at the 

phased integration of UAS are in development. 

FAA has already issued rules that define some 

requirements for operating a private UAS safely, 

within sight of the operator. Future rules will be 

targeted at allowing a wider scope of operations 

for smaller UAS, and enabling flights over people.

Beginning in 2013, six test sites around the 

country began conducting UAS research. In order 

to safely integrate UAS into the national airspace 

system, several technical and procedural hurdles 

will have to be overcome (e.g., making sure UAS 

can detect and avoid other aircraft and maintain 

communication with pilots). FAA is pursuing a 

phased integration of UAS. This gradual process 

is intended to ensure safety and manage risk to 

the National Airspace System.

A full regulatory framework agreement on 

certification and technology standards, and 

procedures to collect and analyze safety data are 

still challenges that need to be met in order to 

ensure that UAS operate effectively and safely. 

Safety Trends 

Over the last 50 years, taking a flight in a 

commercial aircraft has become the safest 

possible means of travel. Aviation accident rates 

have declined dramatically since the 1960s. 

Today, commercial aviation accidents with 

fatalities are exceedingly rare—some 99.997 

percent of air traffic operations occur without 
AVIATION 162

safety or compliance incidents. On average, a 

person could fly every single day for 50,000 years 

and still not be involved in a fatal crash. In 2015, 

U.S. commercial carriers flew nearly 900 million 

passenger miles without a single air carrier 

fatality. Globally, there were four accidents 

resulting in passenger fatalities, and accident 

rates for scheduled commercial flight fell to 

about one major accident for every 3.1 million 

flights. However, acts of suspected terrorism and 

suicide resulted in the deaths of 374 passengers 

and crew on two flights, highlighting security and 

mental health challenges. 

Advancements in safety are the result of 

improving technologies, better training, effective 

regulation, and the use of a risk-based approach 

to safety management. The aviation system and 

regulators systematically analyze and learn from 

safety incidents. Sophisticated aircraft systems 

and modern air traffic control technologies also 

improve the situational awareness of pilots and 

air traffic controllers. Today, the FAA increasingly 

uses tools and techniques for data recording, 

collection, reporting, and analysis that allow for 

early identification, assessment and mitigation of 

safety risks. These tools and techniques provide 

FAA with access to an abundance of safety data, 

allowing them to make smarter, data-driven, 

risk-based decisions and, with industry and 

global partners, to identify emerging hazards and 

predict the associated safety risks before they 

become accidents. 

This data-driven approach helps FAA improve 

safety and informs the agency’s policies, 

standards, and training programs. Due to the 

extremely low rate of casualties in air travel, 

it is becoming necessary to employ data and 

analysis more effectively in order to prevent 

crashes before they occur, rather than analyzing 

accidents that have already happened. The 

future will require us to move away from the 

forensics toward a more predictive safetyanalysis approach. Safety challenges for aviation 

in the future are likely to be focused on the 

introduction of new technology and the safe 

entry of new types of aircraft into the system 

(e.g., space launches, UAS), and the maintenance 

of high levels of safety around increasingly 

congested hub airports.

Policy Implications

Aviation has changed much in the past 30 years 

and will undoubtedly continue to evolve over the 

next 30 years as new technologies are introduced 

and the population and economy grow. Policy 

options that will influence the future course of 

the aviation system include:

3⁄4 Ensuring that sufficient revenue is available 

to support the operating and capital needs of 

our National Airspace System.

3⁄4 Balancing the system’s multiple and 

sometimes conflicting needs for 

modernization, maintenance, access, 

efficiency, capacity, environmental 

sustainability, and services.

3⁄4 Enabling the safe integration of commercial 

space flights and unmanned aircraft systems 

into the NAS while minimizing risk to other 

users of the system.

3⁄4 Shifting to a more collaborative, datainformed and risk-based safety management 

approach to proactively address emerging 

safety risks.

3⁄4 Improving surface access to airports for 

passengers and freight.
163 BEYOND TRAFFIC

References

● (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. 

Passengers; “All Carriers – All Airports.” (http://www.

transtats.bts.gov/Data_Elements.aspx?Data=1)

History

● (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration. FAA Historical 

Chronology, 1926-1996. (https://www.faa.gov/

about/media/b-chron.pdf)

Growing Demand for Air Travel

● (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National 

Transportation Statistics; “Table 1-67: FAA-Cited 

Causes of Departure and En Route Delays (After 

pushing back from the gate).”(http://www.rita.dot.

gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/

national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_67.

html)

● (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration. FAA 

Aerospace Forecast, Fiscal Years 2015 – 2035. 

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/

aerospace_forecasts/media/2015_National_

Forecast_Report.pdf

● (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration. 2013. 

“Activity Forecasts.” Report to Congress: National 

Plan of Integrated Airport Systems 2013-

2017. (http://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_

capacity/npias/reports/historical/media/2013/

npias2013Narrative.pdf)

● Foxx, Anthony. DOT Fast Lane Blog. “FAA’s Hughes 

Technical Center leading U.S. to NextGen of aviation 

safety, efficiency.” (http://www.dot.gov/fastlane/faatech-center-leading-us-nextgen)

● (GAO) Government Accountability Office. 2010. 

National Airspace System: Setting On-Time 

Performance Targets at Congested Airports Could 

Help Focus FAA’s Actions. May. (http://www.gao.

gov/new.items/d10542.pdf)

A Dynamic Aviation Industry

● (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. “2ndQuarter 2014 Air Fare Data.” News release. October 

28, 2014. (http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/press_

releases/bts050_14_fig1)

● Brueckner, Jan. Access. “Airport Congestion 

Management: Prices or Quantities?” Fall 2009. 

(http://www.uctc.net/access/35/access35_Airport_

Congestion_Management.pdf)

● (DOT) Department of Transportation. Office 

of Inspector General. 2012. Aviation Industry 

Performance: A Review of the Aviation Industry, 

2008-2011. September. (https://www.oig.dot.

gov/sites/default/files/Aviation%20Industry%20

Performance%5E9-24-12.pdf)

● (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration. GA Airports: 

National Asset; “General Aviation Airports: A 

National Asset.” (http://www.faa.gov/airports/

planning_capacity/ga_study)

● (GAO) Government Accountability Office. 2014. 

Impact of Fuel Price Increases on the Aviation 

Industry. September. (http://www.gao.gov/

assets/670/666127.pdf)

● Testimony before the Subcommittee on Aviation, 

Committee on Transportation & Infrastructure, 

U.S. House of Representatives. 113th Cong. 

(2013). Statement of Susan L. Kurland, assistant 

secretary for aviation and international affairs, 

U.S. Department of Transportation. (http://

transportation.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2013-12-

12-kurland.pdf)

ModernizingOur Nation’s Air Traffic 

System

● (DOT) Department of Transportation. Office of 

Inspector General. 2014. FAA Faces Significant 

Barriers to Safely Integrate Unmanned Aircraft 

Systems into the National Airspace System. June.

(https://www.oig.dot.gov/sites/default/files/FAA%20

Oversight%20of%20Unmanned%20Aircraft%20

Systems%5E6-26-14.pdf) 

● (DOT) Department of Transportation. Office 

of Inspector General. 2014. FAA Made Limited 

Progress in Implementing NextGen Provisions 

of the FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 

2012. January. (https://www.oig.dot.gov/sites/

default/files/FAA%20Implementation%20of%20

NextGen%20Provisions%20of%20the%20FAA%20

Modernization%20and%20Reform%20Act%20

of%202012%5EJanuary%2028%2C%202014.pdf)

● Electronic Privacy Information Center. Domestic 

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Drones; “Privacy 

Issues.”(http://epic.org/privacy/drones/#privacy)

● Elias, Bart. Congressional Research Service. 2013. 

Federal Civil Aviation Programs: In Brief. December. 

(http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42781.pdf)
AVIATION 164

● (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration. 2012. 

The Business Case for the Next Generation Air 

Transportation System. August. (http://www.faa.

gov/nextgen/media/NextGen%20Bus%20Case%20

2012%20(2012-10-05).pdf)

● (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration. “FAA 

Completes Nationwide Equipment Installation for 

NextGen Aircraft Tracking System.” News release. 

April 14, 2014. (https://www.faa.gov/news/press_

releases/news_story.cfm?newsId=16135) (GAO) 

Government Accountability Office. 2013. NextGen 

Air Transportation System: FAA Has Made Some 

Progress in Midterm Implementation, but Ongoing 

Challenges Limit Expected Benefits. April. (http://

www.gao.gov/assets/660/653626.pdf)

● (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration. “Unmanned 

Aircraft Systems.” (https://www.faa.gov/uas)

● (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration. 2010. 

The Economic Impact of Commercial Space 

Transportation on the U.S. Economy in 2009. 

September. (https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/

media/Economic%20Impact%20Study%20

September%202010_20101026_PS.pdf)

● (GAO) Government Accountability Office. 2014. 

Airport Funding: Aviation Industry Changes Affect 

Airport Development Costs and Financing. June. 

(http://www.gao.gov/assets/670/664188.pdf)

 Safety ● Bialik, Carl, Fivethirtyeight.com, “A Deadly 2014 for 

Air Travel Has Reversed Recent Safety Gains.” http://

fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/a-deadly-2014-for-airtravel-has-reversed-recent-safety-gains/

● Fields, Liz. ABC News. “What Are the Odds of 

Surviving a Plane Crash?” March 12, 2014. (http://

abcnews.go.com/International/odds-survivingplane-crash/story?id=22886654)

Figure. 10 Worst Airports for Delays ● Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Airline OnTime Tables” Table 4. Ranking of Major Airport 

On-Time Arrival Performance Year-to-date through 

December 2014. http://www.rita.dot. gov/bts/

subject_areas/airline_information/airline_ ontime_

tables/2014_12/table_03

Figure. Aviation Accidents ● Bialik, Carl, Fivethirtyeight.com, “A Deadly 2014 for 

Air Travel Has Reversed Recent Safety Gains.” http://

fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/a-deadly-2014-for-airtravel-has-reversed-recent-safety-gains/
165 BEYOND TRAFFIC

INTERCITY RAIL

Our intercity passenger and freight rail 

networks are a vital component of America’s 

vast intermodal transportation network. The 

intercity passenger rail system operated by 

Amtrak carries millions of passengers each 

year to destinations across the country. Freight 

rail is a $70 billion industry connecting U.S. 

consumers to agricultural, economic, logistics, 

and manufacturing centers.

Trends that will impact the performance of our 

passenger and freight rail system over the next 

30 years include:

3⁄4 Demand for speedy and reliable passenger 

rail service in growing megaregions will 

continue to increase.

3⁄4 Ridership growth will result in continuing 

improvements to Amtrak’s financial 

performance, but, absent sustainable 

federal funding, Amtrak will continue to face 

challenges meeting the costs of providing 

national passenger rail service. 

3⁄4 Increasing freight rail demand will increase 

pressure to address freight chokepoints and 

resolve passenger-freight conflicts.

3⁄4 Continued emphasis on rail safety will lead to 

sustained safety improvements.

Intercity Passenger Rail

Amtrak operates our intercity passenger rail 

system. Amtrak was created by the 1970 Rail 

Passenger Service Act in order to assure the 

continuation of passenger train service given 

financial turmoil in the private rail industry 

at the time. Amtrak operates as a national 

public-private corporation, operating a national 

rail network of more than 21,000 route miles 

serving more than 500 destinations in 46 states, 

the District of Columbia, and three Canadian 

provinces. 

Rising Passenger Rail 

Ridership

Our intercity passenger rail system carries more 

than 30 million passengers each year. Millions 

more passengers ride commuter trains over 

tracks that are often shared with Amtrak and 

freight trains. Although Amtrak trips comprise 

less than 1 percent of all domestic intercity trips, 

Amtrak’s ridership has grown in recent years. 

Annual ridership has increased by more than 

50 percent since 1993, with total passenger 

trips reaching 30.8 million in fiscal year 2014. 

Increasing popularity among young adults and 

improvements in service such as e-ticketing and 

improving broadband access are helping to drive 

demand. 

Passenger rail service is an attractive alternative 

for intercity travel, particularly for trips between 

100 and 500 miles. Well over 85 percent of all 

passenger trips on Amtrak are for journeys 

less than 250 miles, while less than 5 percent 

of trips are for journeys more than 400 miles. 

Amtrak ridership is especially strong in growing 

megaregions such as the Northeast Corridor, 

the Chicago Hub area, and the West Coast. More 

than one out of every three Amtrak passengers 

travels along the Northeast Corridor between 

Washington, D.C., New York, and Boston. 
INTERCITY RAIL 166

High-Speed Intercity Rail

FRA’s High-Speed Intercity Rail Program has provided $10 billion in grant funding to 

states along critical rail corridors. Several projects are currently underway, including 

nearly $1 billion in investments to upgrade the Northeast Corridor, $3.9 billion to lay 

the groundwork for high-speed rail in California, and $1.9 billion for track upgrades in 

the Midwest. With the exception of high-speed rail in California, these projects have 

largely focused on upgrading existing track and vehicles to improve speeds and reduce 

delays.

Amtrak-owned infrastructure also supports 

critical commuter rail services particularly in 

the Northeast Corridor. An average of more 

than 847,000 people every weekday depend on 

commuter rail services that use Amtrak-owned 

infrastructure and shared operations. In addition, 

states provide intercity passenger rail corridor 

services across the country through operating 

contracts with Amtrak. These state-supported 

routes carry nearly half of all of Amtrak’s 

passengers. This arrangement is part of a shift 

in the passenger rail service industry away from 

centralized Amtrak-operated services toward 

more services funded, managed, and overseen 

by states and localities. While this shift is only 

just beginning, it could ultimately result in the 

creation of intercity operators other than Amtrak.

In the next 30 years, the American population 

will grow by 23 percent, increasing demand 

for personal travel across all modes, including 

rail. As the American population grows and the 

population and economy become increasingly 

centered in major metropolitan areas, passenger 

rail could become a more attractive option for 

many travelers. Increasing highway and airport 

congestion could also make passenger rail a 

more competitive alternative. Other social and 

cultural changes, such as changing attitudes 

toward driving, especially among young adults, 

may also influence future ridership. In the future, 

higher-speed rail service in dense population 

corridors could increase travel options for 

intercity travelers and help to relieve growth in 

congestion on highways and at busy airports in 

major metropolitan areas. 

Funding Passenger Rail to 

Address Growing Demand

Unlike highways, transit, and aviation, passenger 

rail lacks a source of predictable, dedicated 

funding. Revenues from passenger rail tickets 

are Amtrak’s primary source of funding. In 

fiscal year 2014, Amtrak earned a record setting 

$2.2 billion in ticket revenues, of which more 

than half were generated on the Northeast 

Corridor. On top of its annual revenues, Amtrak 

receives approximately $1.5 billion in federal 

appropriations each year. In 2014, Congress 

provided more than $1 billion in grants for capital 

expenses and debt service and $340 million in 

grants for operating costs. 

Ticket sales for popular routes, such as the 

Northeast Corridor, produce an operating 

surplus for Amtrak that defrays, but does not 

fully cover, the operating costs of long-distance 

routes. Although Amtrak’s 15 long-distance 

lines comprise only a small percentage of all 

intercity trips by rail, they offer the only intercity 

transportation alternatives in many areas. 
167 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Intermodal Container Traffic

Intermodal container traffic is one of the fastest growing segments of the freight rail 

industry and currently accounts for 11 percent of rail freight. The use of intermodal 

transfers in large containers has greatly improved the efficiency of freight rail by 

reducing handling time and labor costs for non-bulk commodities. Although the 

growth in container transportation has affected freight movement by all modes, 

the productivity of freight railroads has improved dramatically due to the growth 

in intermodal freight and the development of practices such as double-stack rail 

transport. 

Five percent of Amtrak riders travel to or from 

communities that are underserved by intercity 

bus and airline operators. 

Highways, transit, aviation, inland waterways, 

ports, and harbors all benefit from dedicated 

trust funds. Rail is unique in that it lacks a 

committed source of federal revenue. As a result, 

passenger rail capital investments have generally 

failed to keep up with the needs of existing fleets 

and infrastructure, leading to a backlog of state 

of good repair and other basic infrastructure 

needs. There is currently a multibillion dollar 

backlog of projects required to maintain a state 

of good repair on our nation’s rails, as well as a 

significant deficit in the capital funding available 

for maintaining assets and adding capacity for 

anticipated increases in demand. The Northeast 

Corridor alone requires investments of nearly 

$1.5 billion per year over 15 years to bring 

the corridor into a state of good repair and 

maintain it in that condition. To achieve highspeed rail service along the corridor and address 

maintenance backlogs, Amtrak’s Master Plan 

for the Northeast Corridor calls for nearly $151 

billion in investments, including $15 billion for 

the construction of new trans-Hudson River 

tunnels and a new Penn Station in New York City.

Freight Rail

America’s freight rail system consists of over 

140,000 route miles connecting consumers 

to agricultural, economic, manufacturing, and 

population centers. An indispensable aspect of 

our freight infrastructure, railroads move roughly 

39 percent of all intercity freight ton-miles in 

America each year. Rail is the predominant mode 

of transportation for heavy bulk commodities 

like coal, grain, and minerals and for high valued 

cargo, such as intermodal traffic, traveling 

between 750 and 2000 miles. Freight rail is a $70 

billion industry comprising over 560 regional 

and short-line freight railroads, including seven 

“Class 1” railroads that represent the bulk of the 

industry’s rail mileage, revenues, and workforce. 

Meeting Freight Rail Demand

After the Staggers Rail Act partially deregulated 

rail freight in 1980, shipping rates for all railroads 

declined by more than 30 percent, and rail 

freight traffic has nearly doubled. Railroads have 

generated record revenues by growing traffic 

and concentrating on highly trafficked railroad 

lines. The number of privately operated rail miles 

has declined by more than 40 percent and the 

workforce has fallen by more than half. 
INTERCITY RAIL 168

Short-Line Railroads

While Class 1 railroads generate over 95 percent of all freight rail revenues in America, 

they own and maintain less than 70 percent of America’s rail miles. Most of the 

remaining rail miles are owned by small and medium railroad companies, including 

short-line railroads that serve a small number of towns and industries. Many shortline railroads lack the capital to make the investments necessary to maintain a state of 

good repair. With limited annual revenues, these rail operators may struggle to meet 

current and future freight demand. 

The volume of goods moved by rail has increased 

steadily since 1980, and is projected to increase 

by 24 percent through 2045. With increases 

in passenger traffic and freight demand, track 

congestion may increase, especially in highertraffic passenger corridors. Growing congestion 

may reduce the reliability of the railway network 

for both freight and passenger movements. 

Meeting this growing demand will require 

substantial investments led by the private rail 

industry in rail capacity. Unlike most other 

modes of transportation, rail operates on 

infrastructure that is built and maintained as 

private infrastructure. As such, private railroads 

invest a high percentage of their revenues to 

maintain and add capacity to their system, 

including more than $25 billion in both 2013 and 

2014. Since 1980, freight railroads have spent 

$550 billion on these investments. 

To meet burgeoning freight demand, effective 

investments in U.S. transportation infrastructure 

must be made and innovative transportation 

solutions must be considered. One way to do 

this is to form public-private partnerships where 

private companies and governments cooperate 

to maintain, improve, and expand transportation 

infrastructure. Rail transportation investments 

provided by public-private partnerships are 
169 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Marine Governance

Most port facilities are owned by state and local government or the private sector. 

The Maritime Administration (MARAD) is responsible for improving port facilities; 

expanding the use of the nation’s waterways; promoting the development of the 

United States merchant marine; and ensuring that the United States maintains 

adequate shipbuilding and repair services, and effective intermodal connections 

to marine transportation systems. Several other agencies also have considerable 

responsibility for elements of the marine transportation system. The U.S. Army Corps 

of Engineers is responsible for deepening and maintaining navigation channels. The 

U.S. Coast Guard is responsible for maritime security, law enforcement, and the 

maintenance of aids to navigation. Customs and Border Protection is responsible for 

clearing goods into and out of the United States.

an effective way to meet future transportation 

challenges while at the same time providing 

significant public benefits such as reductions 

in road congestion, highway fatalities, fuel 

consumption and greenhouse gases, logistics 

costs, and public infrastructure maintenance 

costs. Public-private partnerships may also help 

to resolve freight chokepoints, particularly where 

freight and passenger traffic operate on the 

same track. 

As new rail projects emerge and private 

participation increases, federal regulatory 

agencies, such as the Surface Transportation 

Board, the regulatory agency that authorizes 

rail construction, abandonments, and other 

transactions, may face increasing demands for 

timely decisions and oversight.

Improving Rail Safety

Rail transportation is safe and getting safer. 

Train accident rates, already low, have steadily 

declined since the 1990s. Fatal accidents 

involving employees have been cut in half 

since the early 1990s. The vast majority of 

fatal train accidents—96 percent—are related 

to trespassing or highway-rail grade crossing 

incidents. Trespassing fatalities have remained 

high over the same period and now account 

for 60 percent of all train-related fatalities. 

Continued focus on safety by Amtrak and Class 

1 railroads, the adoption of safety management 

systems, fostering of a safety culture at rail 

agencies, and the research, development and 

implementation of new safety technologies 

and practices will continue to drive safety 

improvements in the future.

Policy Implications

Increasingly, interconnected communities and 

megaregions drive a need for strong intercity 

transportation connections for both people 

and goods. Passenger and freight rail services 

compete for limited capacity in some markets, 

although there are policy options available that 

can help to align incentives and achieve a more 

collaborative working environment:

3⁄4 Encourage public-private partnerships 

and new models for the shared use of 

privately owned freight rail lines that identify 

incentives to encourage more efficient 

passenger and freight movements.
INTERCITY RAIL 170

The St. Lawrence Seaway

The St. Lawrence Seaway is a binational waterway directly serving an eight-state, 

two-province region. The Seaway moves, on average, 40 million metric tons of cargo 

annually between North American and international markets of virtually every type 

of bulk, breakbulk, and general cargo, including iron ore for the U.S. steel industry, 

limestone for construction and steel industries, coal for power generation and steel 

production, grain exports from U.S. farms, and finished steel and heavy lift products 

for industry. Maritime commerce on the Seaway system impacts 227,000 U.S. and 

Canadian jobs, $35 billion in transportation-related business revenue, $14 billion in 

personal income, and $5 billion in federal, state, provincial, and Great Lakes taxes each 

year. 

3⁄4 Focus federal investment in research, 

development, and technology to accelerate 

safety technology while creating a regulatory 

structure that incentivizes advanced safety 

technology. 

Current public funding levels are not able to 

meet the coming transportation demand or fully 

fund the replacement of legacy infrastructure; 

however, steps can be taken to leverage current 

funding and spur more investment:

3⁄4 Continue investment in high-performance 

passenger and freight rail, through track and 

vehicle upgrades, particularly on shared-use 

corridors and those for which cost-effective 

improvements will make passenger train 

travel both price and time competitive with 

the automobile and aviation markets.

3⁄4 Provide a predictable, dedicated funding 

source for rail projects that allows for current 

projects to advance, while spurring the 

development of a pipeline of new projects 

and encouraging private participation by 

reducing uncertainty.

3⁄4 Explore new models of public-private 

partnerships that more clearly identifies 

public and private benefits of projects to 

enable the inclusion of a broader spectrum of 

public and private sector participants. 

References

Intercity Rail

● Neff, John and Matthew Dickens. American Public 

Transportation Association. 2014. 2014 Public 

Transportation Fact Book: Appendix A. September. 

(http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/

Documents/FactBook/2014-APTA-Fact-BookAppendix-A.pdf)

● (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Long 

Distance Travel Patterns; “Table 4: Percent of Trips 

by Mode for One Way Travel Distance.” (http://

www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/

publications/america_on_the_go/long_distance_

transportation_patterns/html/table_04.html)

● Amtrak. 2014. National Fact Sheet: FY 2014.(http://

www.amtrak.com/ccurl/826/406/Amtrak-NationalFact-Sheet-FY2013-rev.pdf)

● The Brookings Institution. “U.S. Passenger Rail 

Ridership.” March 1, 2013. (http://www.brookings.

edu/research/interactives/2013/amtrakroutes)
171 BEYOND TRAFFIC

● Amtrak. Amtrak Ridership and Ticket Revenue 

Steady in Fiscal Year 2015. https://www.amtrak.

com/ccurl/593/119/FY15-Financial-ResultsATK-15-066.pdf

● Peterman, David Randall, John Frittelli, and William 

J. Mallet. Congressional Research Service. 2013. 

The Development of High Speed Rail in the United 

States: Issues and Recent Events. December. (http://

fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42584.pdf)

● (FRA) Federal Railroad Administration. Rail 

Development Network; “Freight Rail Today.” 

(https://www.fra.dot.gov/Page/P0362)

● Amtrak. 2009. Northeast Corridor State of Good 

Repair Spend Plan. April. (http://www.amtrak.com/

ccurl/771/1002/NEC_StateOfGoodRepair_PRIIA.pdf)

● Amtrak, The Amtrak Vision for the Northeast 

Corridor: 2012 Update Report. https://www.

amtrak.com/ccurl/453/325/Amtrak-Vision-for-theNortheast-Corridor.pdf

Freight Rail

● (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National 

Transportation Statistics; “Table 1-50: U.S. TonMiles of Freight.” (http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/

sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_

transportation_statistics/html/table_01_50.html)

● (BLS) Bureau of Labor Statistics. Top Picks: 

Producer Price Index-Industry Data. Select, “Linehaul railroads.” (http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/

surveymost?pc)

● Palley, Joel. Federal Railroad Administration. 2013. 

Freight Railroads Background. April.(https://www.

fra.dot.gov/eLib/Details/L03011)

● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. Freight 

Facts and Figures 2013; “Tables 2-1 and 2-1M. 

Weight of Shipments by Transportation Mode: 

2007, 2012, and 2040.” (http://ops.fhwa.dot.

gov/freight/freight_analysis/nat_freight_stats/

docs/13factsfigures/table2_01.htm) 

● American Society of Civil Engineers. 2013. 2013 

Report Card for America’s Infrastructure. March. 

(http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/a/#p/

home)

● Association of American Railroads. Private 

Rail Investments Power America’s Economy: 

Freight Railroads Have Invested $550 Billion into 

the National Rail Network Since 1980.(http://

freightrailworks.org/wp-content/uploads/FRWInvestments2.pdf)

● Association of American Railroads. 2013. Class 

I Railroad Statistics. January. (https://www.aar.

org/StatisticsAndPublications/Documents/AARStats-2013-01-10.pdf)

Improving Rail Safety

● Association of American Railroads. Positive Train 

Control; “Ensuring the Successful Deployment of 

Advanced Safety Technology.” (https://www.aar.org/

policy/positive-train-control)

● (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National 

Transportation Statistics; (Table 2-39: Railroad and 

Grade-Crossing Fatalities by Victim Class.” (http://

www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/

publications/national_transportation_statistics/

html/table_02_39.html)
MARINE 172

MARINE

America’s rivers and waterways formed the 

nation’s first freight corridors. In the early 

nineteenth century, substantial public, private 

and state resources were invested in canals and 

ports, which functioned as engines of economic 

development in the pre-railroad era. Even as 

railroads and highways spread across the nation, 

today’s marine transportation system, made up 

of inland waterways and ports, coastal routes, 

and deep water ports, is still the foundation of 

our robust international and domestic trade and 

will remain so for the foreseeable future. 

Looking to the future, several critical trends will 

have a major impact on the performance of the 

critical marine links in our transportation system, 

including:

● Increasing imports and exports and 

containerized freight will lead to greater 

congestion at America’s coastal and inland 

ports.

● Investments in ports, harbors, and 

waterways will be essential to meet the 

demand of increased global trade and 

competition.

● Automation will improve the productivity 

and efficiency of marine transportation and 

ports.

Increasing Global Trade and 

Intermodal Freight

In 2014, total exports and imports of goods 

reached a value of $4 trillion, or approximately 

23 percent of U.S. gross domestic product. In 

the next 30 years, it is reasonable to expect 

that the volume of imports and exports 

transported by sea will continue to grow, with 

dramatic implications for America’s ports and 

transportation system. 

Deepwater ports on every coast handle more 

than 70 percent of our nation’s imports and 

exports by weight and are a vital link in our 

globalized economy. Ports along the Gulf Coast, 

such as South Louisiana, Houston, New Orleans, 

and Beaumont, Texas handle much of the 

petroleum, gas, steel, coal, and grain entering 

and leaving the United States. Three ports, Los 

Angeles, Long Beach, and New York/New Jersey 

handle 48 percent of all foreign containerized 

trade entering and exiting the United States. 

In fact, 10 ports account for 83 percent of our 

nation’s containerized international trade. This 

concentration provides an opportunity for 

America to focus its resources on expanding the 

capacity of our most important ports. But, it also 

makes our entire freight system vulnerable to 

disruption or delay due to natural disasters or 

security incidents.

At the same time, container ships will continue 

to expand their capacity, potentially leading to 

increases in containerized freight movement. 

If not adequately accommodated and planned 

for, this increase in throughput could lead to 

delayed shipments, congestion at intermodal 

transfer points, increased transportation costs, 

intensifying pollution, and other negative 

consequences.
173 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Port Infrastructure: The Port of Seattle Prepares for the Future

Our nation’s economy depends on the efficiency of port facilities to keep goods moving 

in and out of the country. However, growth in international trade and the expanding 

capacity of container ships will lead to greater congestion at America’s seaports and 

intermodal facilities. American port authorities are taking steps to prepare for expected 

increases in demand. For example, the Port of Seattle, which recently formed a Seaport 

Alliance with the Port of Tacoma, just received a $20 million TIGER grant from the U.S. 

DOT to make strategic investments that will help Seattle maintain its competitiveness 

with American and Canadian ports.

Seattle/Tacoma is a key stop on the trade corridor between East Asia and the United 

States. Although the port handles roughly 5,000 containers per day, its facilities are 

in need of repair. In light of this fact, the port plans to use the TIGER grant funding 

to strengthen an aging dock and extend a dock crane rail. These improvements will 

increase the port’s capacity and allow it to accommodate two post-Panamax vessels 

at the same time. The port will also use the TIGER grant to construct a new truck ramp 

with more direct access to the port’s intermodal yard. Together, these investments 

will improve safety conditions, speed up the intermodal transfer of goods, and relieve 

highway congestion in and around the port. 

Over the past 30 years, U.S.-international trade 

has increased at a much faster rate than our 

nation’s overall economic growth, as measured 

in annual GDP growth. In the next 30 years, 

increasing imports and exports will lead to 

greater congestion at America’s coastal ports. 

Because international trade and GDP are 

thoroughly linked, modern and efficient ports are 

essential to our international trade and to the 

health of our overall economy. 

Modernizing Ports and Inland 

Waterways

To support the continued competitiveness 

of American goods in a global economy it is 

essential that we maintain and modernize our 

ports and repair our aging inland waterway 

infrastructure. Significant inland waterways 

include the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence 

Seaway; the Ohio River Basin; the Mississippi 

River System; the Columbia River; and the Gulf 

Coast Coastal Waterways. Our nation’s largest 

inland ports like Duluth, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, 

and Huntington handle tens of millions of tons of 

grain, steel, cars, and coal.

American port authorities are already investing 

billions of dollars to modernize their facilities 

and accommodate increasingly larger ships. 

Raising bridges, dredging harbors, widening 

channels, and purchasing bigger ship-to-shore 

cranes are key steps to preparing for expected 

increases in demand and ensuring safe and 

efficient intermodal freight movement into the 

future. Ports do not stand alone. Port authorities 

and their partners are also participating in many 

efficiency-improving road and rail projects to 

eliminate freight bottlenecks and facilitate the 
MARINE 174

movement of freight from ports to distribution 

centers. Although our ports are becoming 

increasingly busy, opportunities for innovation 

may be able to improve our port infrastructure 

even as the international economy places 

greater strains on the marine component of our 

transportation system.

Port infrastructure itself has not historically 

received federal funding assistance. However, 

with ports struggling to keep pace with 

increasing demand, TIGER Discretionary Grants 

have provided nearly $500 million for port 

projects. In light of the increasing need for 

port infrastructure to keep pace with demand, 

MARAD’s Strong Ports Program is also helping 

ports modernize their infrastructure by providing 

planning expertise and assistance to U.S. port 

authorities. However, this program does not yet 

include a dedicated funding vehicle.

The Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund (HMTF) 

funds the federal government’s surveying and 

dredging projects, as well as the maintenance of 

breakwaters, the operation of locks, and the Saint 

Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation. 

Over the past decade, the U.S. Army Corps of 

Engineers (USACE) has spent an average of $1.5 

to $2 billion on navigation projects each year. 

These federal navigation projects are funded by 

a combination of user-fee-supported trust funds 

and appropriations from the General Fund. Costs 

for deep-draft improvements are typically shared 

with local port authorities. Public port authorities 

spend more than $1 billion annually on dredging 

and infrastructure improvement.

The HMTF draws its funding from an ad valorem 

tax (duty on imported items) on inbound 

shipments. In response to the increasing value of 

imports, HMTF revenues have grown to a current 

total of nearly $2 billion annually. Over the past 

decade, these receipts have outpaced spending 

from the HMTF, leaving the HMTF with a surplus 

balance of $8.5 billion. Spending can only be 

authorized by Congress and, in recent years, 

Congress has preferred to preserve the surplus 

in order to count it toward the deficit reduction 

figure, although the latest spending authorization 

bill includes scheduled increases in spending 

over the next decade.

The Inland Waterways Trust Fund (IWTF) funds 

capital projects to improve inland waterways. 

This fund generates approximately $80 million 

each year from a fuel tax on vessels using inland 

waterways. The balance of the IWTF declined 

from $400 million in 2001 to slightly more than 

$100 million today, largely due to the cost of 

building the Olmsted Locks and Dam project 

on the Ohio River in Illinois. This fund will get a 

boost in revenues of approximately $26 million 

with the enactment of the Achieving a Better Life 

Experience Act (ABLE Act) of 2014 which will raise 

barge fuel taxes.

USACE reports a backlog of over 500 active 

inland navigation projects, with an estimated 

completion cost of about $38 billion. Movement 

of freight on our inland rivers and waterways 

is hampered by an aging, antiquated system 

of locks and dams which have exceeded their 

design service lives and are too frequently out 

of service. Approximately half of the navigation 

locks on inland waterways are over 50 years 

of age and require frequent repair. Targeted, 

performance-based investments are needed to 

repair and reconstruct this aging inland waterway 

infrastructure.

Automating Ports and Ships

Automation technologies are having major 

impacts at foreign ports and may spread to 

American ports. With the advent of standardized 

containerization, cargo transfer functions have 
175 BEYOND TRAFFIC

become increasingly automated. At major 

container ports around the world, the process 

of transferring containers from ships to docks, 

trucks, or rail is becoming highly automated, 

reducing reliance on human operators. If 

this trend continues, the human role in cargo 

handling could be greatly altered and reduced, 

thereby reducing the cost of shipping, providing 

the needed capacity to handle increased vessel 

sizes, and changing the nature of work in the 

marine transportation sector. 

At sea, automation is also increasing efficiency 

allowing vessels to operate with fewer crew 

members than ever before. This trend has the 

potential to reduce the costs of freight, but may 

also create new risks as larger ships are crewed 

by fewer mariners. Managing and maintaining 

these new vessels will, in some cases, require 

advanced mechanical and data analysis jobs that 

demand higher skills and offer higher pay than 

traditional freight work, but may also displace 

the traditional mariner workforce. 

Policy Implications

Our ports, rivers, waterways, and coastal 

routes remain a critical piece of our intricate 

transportation network, and continued 

investment is essential to keep up with increased 

globalization and technology advancements. 

These are some of the policy options available to 

bolster our maritime industry:

3⁄4 Develop a nationwide strategy to improve 

capacity at U.S. ports, where appropriate, 

with emphasis on those ports that are or will 

be able to accommodate larger container 

ships;

3⁄4 Invest in America’s port and related 

infrastructure, where this would be highly 

effective in reducing the congestion and 

environmental impacts of trucks on our 

nation’s roadways; 

3⁄4 Consolidate the roles and responsibilities 

of the many agencies with jurisdiction over 

port facilities, which will streamline goods 

movement, and increase safety and security; 

3⁄4 Address performance of our port and related 

infrastructure as an integral component of 

our nation’s freight transportation system 

and;

3⁄4 Encourage automation in ports and on ships 

that increase efficiency and create jobs for 

highly skilled workers.

References

● (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. 2011. 

America’s Container Ports: Linking Markets at Home 

and Abroad. January.(http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/

sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/americas_

container_ports/2011/pdf/entire.pdf) 

● (MARAD) Maritime Administration. U.S. Waterbone 

Foreign Container Trade by U.S. Customs Ports. 

http://www.marad.dot.gov/resources/datastatistics/#Trade Statistics

● U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic 

Analysis, U.S. International Trade in Goods and 

Services, Annual Revision for 2014, Exhibit 1. 

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/PressRelease/2014pr/final_revisions/final.pdf

Modernizing Ports and Inland 

Waterways

● American Society of Civil Engineers. 2013. 2013 

Report Card for America’s Infrastructure. March. 

(http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/a/#p/

home)

● Frittelli, John. Congressional Research Service. 

2013. Harbor Maintenance Finance and Funding. 

September. (http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43222.

pdf)

● Han, Stephanie, and Natalie Soroka. International 

Trade Administration. 2014. U.S. Trade Overview, 

2013. October. (http://www.trade.gov/mas/

ian/build/groups/public/@tg_ian/documents/

webcontent/tg_ian_002065.pdf)

● (MARAD) Maritime Administration. StrongPorts 

FAQs Page. (http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/

StrongPorts_FAQs.pdf)
MARINE 176

● (MARAD) Maritime Administration. 2009. America’s 

Ports and Intermodal Transportation System. 

January.(http://www.glmri.org/downloads/

Ports&IntermodalTransport.pdf) 

● Nagle, Kurt. DOT Fast Lane Blog. “America’s Ports 

Need a National Freight Funding Strategy to 

Delivery Prosperity.” (http://www.dot.gov/fastlane/

ports-need-national-freight-funding-strategy)

Automating Ports and Ships

● Hillestad, Richard, Ben D. Van Roo, and Keenan 

D. Yoho. RAND Corporation. 2009. Fast Forward: 

Key Issues in Modernizing the U.S. FreightTransportation System for Future Economic 

Growth. (http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/

pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG883.pdf) 

● The Journal of Commerce. “U.S. ports weigh value of 

terminal automation investment.” October 2, 2014. 

(http://www.joc.com/port-news/port-productivity/

us-ports-weigh-value-terminal-automationinvestment_20141002.html) 
177 BEYOND TRAFFIC

PIPELINES

More than 2.6 million miles of pipelines transport 

natural gas, oil, and other hazardous liquids 

across the United States every day. Each year 

pipelines carry oil, gas, and other products valued 

at more than a trillion dollars from production 

fields to refineries, processing plants, and ports 

and, eventually to consumers. Our natural gas 

distribution mains and service pipelines bring 

natural gas to more than 70 million homes 

and businesses. In 2012, this system moved 

approximately 1.5 billion tons of products, about 

8 percent of all freight shipments by volume. 

3⁄4 Rising domestic production of oil and natural 

gas will strain existing pipeline capacity.

3⁄4 Highest risk pipeline infrastructure will 

raise safety and environmental risks if not 

repaired, rehabilitated, or replaced.

Rising Domestic Energy 

Production

America is experiencing an energy boom. 

American oil production has increased by more 

than 50 percent over just the past three years. 

In fact, the United States now produces more 

crude oil than any other country in the world. 

At the same time, America is consuming natural 

gas at historic highs, primarily for electric power 

and industrial uses. Some 24 trillion cubic feet of 

natural gas were used by residential, commercial, 

power, and industrial consumers in 2014.

These trends are likely to continue, although 

sharply dropping oil prices may curtail growth 

in domestic fossil fuel production in the near 

term. Over the long term, the Energy Information 

Administration (EIA) expects natural gas 

production to continue to grow and that energy 

production will expand rapidly in regions of the 

country with shale energy resources. This growth 

will likely outpace domestic energy consumption, 

even as the demand for natural gas increases. 

As a result of growing production and increasing 

global demand, the United States could become 

a net exporter of natural gas. 

  

America’s fossil fuel boom will continue to 

increase demand for the processing facilities, 

storage fields, and transmission lines necessary 

to move oil and gas safely and efficiently. 

Approximately 74 percent of domestic crude oil—

more than 2 billion barrels per year—are shipped 

by pipeline. 

Who Operates Pipelines?

America’s pipelines are operated 

by approximately 3,000 companies 

that vary in size and type, including 

both small local gas utilities and 

large multinational corporations. 

Four industry segments are directly 

involved in transporting materials by 

pipelines: hazardous liquid pipeline 

operators; gas transmission pipeline 

operators; LNG facilities, which store 

gas; and gas distribution utilities, 

which distribute natural gas to 

residential customers and smaller 

commercial users. 
PIPELINES 178

America’s current pipeline network, which 

was primarily designed to transport crude 

oil to refineries in the Gulf Coast, has limited 

connections from the East and West Coasts 

to the shale formations that are accelerating 

America’s energy production. This has resulted in 

limited pipeline capacity in many regions, placing 

extra demand on other modes, such as rail and 

maritime. However, pipeline construction may 

replace the use of other modes to move oil, gas, 

and hazardous liquids.

As production of domestic natural gas and 

crude oil has surged in recent years, the oil and 

gas industry has had to invest in infrastructure 

to reorient our nation’s existing network of 

pipelines. In 2013, private companies invested 

$6.6 billion in crude oil pipelines and $3 billion in 

natural gas liquid pipelines. These companies will 

continue to create new infrastructure to expand 

capacity and accommodate rapidly shifting 

production patterns, increasing demand for 

government oversight of pipeline construction. 

Although pipeline construction may increase, 

much of the new demand for energy movement 

will be absorbed by our existing pipeline 

infrastructure. 

Improving the Safety of 

Pipelines

Pipeline incidents resulting in death, major 

injury, and hazardous liquid spills have gradually 

declined over the past 20 years, even as 

shipments of hazardous materials by pipeline 

have increased. Much of this improvement is 

attributable to advances in pipeline materials, 

corrosion protection methods, and construction 

technologies and standards over time. However, 

many of our nation’s existing pipelines were 

designed using materials that would not meet 

safety standards if they were built today. Older 

cast and wrought-iron pipelines, for example, 

represent 2.5 percent of gas distribution mains 

and account for 10.5 percent of gas main 

incidents. Pipelines that were constructed before 
179 BEYOND TRAFFIC

requirements to install a protective coating on 

the outside of the pipe are also of concern. This 

aging infrastructure raises the risk of safety 

incidents.

In recent years, the pipeline industry, the U.S. 

DOT, and state governments have focused on 

the repair, rehabilitation, and replacement of the 

highest-risk pipeline infrastructure. As a result, 

the amount of cast and wrought-iron pipeline 

in use has declined significantly. Currently, 

38 states have accelerated pipe replacement 

programs. Sixteen states have completely 

eliminated cast or wrought iron natural gas 

distribution lines within their borders, including 

Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, North 

Carolina, North Dakota, New Mexico, Nevada, 

Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, 

Vermont, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. 

While overall incidents have declined, major 

pipeline accidents over the last five years have 

done extensive damage to the environment, 

increasing public concern. The Deepwater 

Horizon oil spill in 2010, while not a pipeline 

incident, still raised public awareness of the 

potential environmental consequences and 

operational risks of petroleum production and 

transport. Minor leaks in gas transmission lines 

are a source of methane emissions. Methane 

is about 40 times as powerful a greenhouse 

gas as carbon dioxide. The EPA has estimated 

that 1 to 2 percent of all natural gas moved 

through pipelines is lost through leaks, accidents, 

maintenance, or operations. Finally, while major 

incidents have not occurred in the United States, 

pipelines may be vulnerable to vandalism, theft, 

and conventional and cyber-terrorism, and must 

be protected. The pipeline industry is taking 

steps to ensure that these complex control 

systems are secure and resilient to cyber attack 

or natural disasters.

Emerging technologies also promise to improve 

the safe and efficient operation of America’s 

pipelines. Fully autonomous pipeline inspection 

“pigs,” for example, have recently become 

widely available. These devices travel inside of 

pipelines and detect corrosion, cracks, and other 

problems. New “smart pig” technology promises 

to improve the accuracy of these devices 

and alternative methods of detecting trouble 

spots are on the horizon, as are data analytics 

innovations that can conduct continuous and 

automatic analysis of pipelines. 

These cost-effective monitoring systems 

will reduce pipeline leaks and help 

pipeline companies cut costs. Additionally, 

automated technologies for valve operation, 

communications, and actuators may help the 

pipeline industry improve safety by shortening 

pipeline isolations and response time. 

Policy Implications

As the production of oil and gas and other 

commodities extracted far from ports and 

inland waterways increases, there will be 

increased need to upgrade and expand our 

pipeline network. Among the policy options to 

sustain, maintain, and develop new pipeline 

infrastructure include:

THE EPA HAS ESTIMATED THAT 1 TO 

2 PERCENT OF ALL NATURAL GAS 

MOVED THROUGH PIPELINES IS 

LOST THROUGH LEAKS, ACCIDENTS, 

MAINTENANCE, OR OPERATIONS.
PIPELINES 180

3⁄4 Working with public and private partners at 

all levels, and building on efforts to date, to 

coordinate comprehensive inventories of the 

national pipeline infrastructure.

3⁄4 Utilizing performance metrics to identify 

emerging safety trends and structure 

oversight to drive pipeline companies toward 

pipeline integrity assurance.

3⁄4 Removing impediments and providing 

incentives for repair, replacement, and 

rehabilitation of the nation’s higher risk 

pipelines, including promotion of creative 

rate recovery mechanisms.

3⁄4 Addressing new challenges resulting from 

the changing demands of the energy boom.

References

Introduction

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. Natural 

Gas “Number of Natural Gas Consumers.” https://

www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_num_dcu_nus_a.

htm

● (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. 2014. 

Freight Facts and Figures 2013. January. (http://ops.

fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/nat_freight_

stats/docs/13factsfigures/pdfs/fff2013_highres.pdf) 

● (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety 

Administration, Pipeline Miles and Facilities 2010+, 

https://hip.phmsa.dot.gov/analyticsSOAP/saw.

dll?Portalpages

Rising Domestic Energy Production

● American Petroleum Institute, “Oil & Natural Gas 

Transportation & Storage Infrastructure: Status, 

Trends, & Economic Benefits, http://www.api.org/~/

media/Files/Policy/SOAE-2014/API-InfrastructureInvestment-Study.pdf

● Curtis, Trisha, et al. Oil & Gas Journal. “Lagging 

pipelines create U.S. gulf light sweet crude glut.” 

March 3, 2014. (http://eprinc.org/wp-content/

uploads/2014/03/OGJ-EPRINC-Article.pdf) 

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. Natural 

Gas; “Natural Gas Consumption by End Use.” 

(http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_

nus_a.htm)

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. 2014. 

Annual Energy Outlook 2014. April.(http://www.eia.

gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2014).pdf)

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. Petroleum 

& Other Liquids. “Refinery Receipts by Method of 

Transportation” https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/

pet_pnp_caprec_dcu_nus_a.htm

Improving Safety of Pipelines

● (DOT) Department of Transportation. The 

State of the National Pipeline Infrastructure.

(https://opsweb.phmsa.dot.gov/pipelineforum/

docs/Secretarys%20Infrastructure%20Report_

Revised%20per%20PHC_103111.pdf)

● Parformak, Paul. Congressional Research Service. 

2013. Keeping America’s Pipelines Safe and Secure: 

Key Issues for Congress. January. (http://fas.org/

sgp/crs/homesec/R41536.pdf)

● (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety 

Administration, Pipeline Miles and Facilities 2010+, 

https://hip.phmsa.dot.gov/analyticsSOAP/saw.

dll?Portalpages

● (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety 

Administration. Pipeline Safety Awareness; “Pipeline 

Incidents and Mileage Reports.” September 2012. 

(https://opsweb.phmsa.dot.gov/pipelineforum/

facts-and-stats/incidents-and-mileage-report)

● (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety 

Administration. Pipeline Replacement Updates; 

“Cast and Wrought Iron Inventory.” (http://opsweb.

phmsa.dot.gov/pipeline_replacement/cast_iron_

inventory.asp)

● (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety 

Administration. Pipeline Safety Community. “About 

Us.” (http://www.phmsa.dot.gov/pipeline/about)

● (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety 

Administration. Pipeline Serious Incident 20 Year 

Trend; “Serious Pipeline Incidents by Cause.” (http://

primis.phmsa.dot.gov/comm/reports/safety/

SerPSIDet_1994_2013_US.html?nocache=3781#_all)

● (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials 

Safety Administration. Pipeline Safety Awareness; 

“Obama Administration Pipeline Safety Goals 

and Accomplishments.” (https://opsweb.phmsa.

dot.gov/pipelineforum/obama-administrationaccomplishments/)

● Roberts, Randy L. “What Do We Really Know 

About Pipeline Pigging and Cleaning?” Pipeline 

and Gas Journal 236 (August 2009).(http://www.

pipelineandgasjournal.com/what-do-we-reallyknow-about-pipeline-pigging-and-cleaning)
181 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Figure Gas Transmission and 

Hazardous Liquid Pipelines in the 

United States

● PHMSA, National Pipeline Mapping System, https://

www.npms.phmsa.dot.gov/

Figure. Domestic Crude Oil Refinery 

Deliveries by Non-Pipeline Mode

● (EIA) Energy Information Administration. Petroleum 

& Other Liquids. “Refinery Receipts by Method of 

Transportation” https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/

pet_pnp_caprec_dcu_nus_a.htm
SHAPING OUR FUTURE: CHOICES IN CHANGING TIMES 182

SHAPING OUR 

FUTURE:

Choices in Changing Times

WHAT DO ALL THE CHANGES WE’RE SEEING MEAN FOR OUR 

TRANSPORTATION POLICIES? WHAT SHOULD WE DO ABOUT THEM?

Understanding the changes we’re 

experiencing makes it possible for us to 

sketch out our transportation future—

and to outline the hard decisions we will 

need to make.
183 BEYOND TRAFFIC

SCENARIO 2045: 

FROM GRIDLOCK TO 

DEADLOCK?

Purpose

We have used our trend analysis as a guide to 

construct a snapshot of a possible future: one 

in which we have failed to make the choices we 

need to make to address the challenges our 

transportation system faces. Different policies, 

technological breakthroughs, economic crises, 

or other developments could yield different 

outcomes. We certainly hope so. Nevertheless, 

this future scenario provides a starting point for 

discussing the tough choices ahead.

Summary

In the Gridlock to Deadlock scenario, 

transportation policies at all levels of government 

continue essentially unchanged. Instead of 

proactively addressing our challenges through 

changes in policy, we do nothing, and the trends 

identified in our report—a growing population, 

increasing inequality, climate change, etc.—are 

left to shape the performance of our nation’s 

transportation system. 

Just going about one’s daily travel routine is 

increasingly challenging. Highway congestion 

increases in major metropolitan areas and air 

travel delays become more frequent. Transit 

services become increasingly expensive and 

intercity rail services are reduced, pushing more 

traffic onto already overcrowded roadways. 

Shipping of goods becomes increasingly 

unreliable and American exports become less 

competitive as the costs of transporting freight go 

up. The effects of climate change raise the costs 

of maintaining infrastructure and increase the 

Atlanta Regional Commission, Plan 2040

In the years 2010 through 2040, the 20-county Atlanta region is projected to add 2.6 

million residents for a total population of nearly 7.9 million. This forecasted growth 

rate represents an average annual growth of 87,825 people. This rate is significant 

enough to place a heavy burden on regional infrastructure, which is already strained 

by the robust growth experienced over the past 60 years. The projected net effect of 

not taking action through to the year 2040 will result in daily average congestion speed 

nearly 10 miles per hour slower (27.5 mph to 18.8 mph) and a distinct rise in annual 

congestion costs—that is, wasted time and fuel used in traffic—per capita ($874 to 

$2,945).
SHAPING OUR FUTURE: CHOICES IN CHANGING TIMES 184

frequency of travel disruption. Our regulatory 

system can’t keep up with technological 

change—and potentially transformative 

transportation and safety technologies are held 

back. Governments fail to make the investments 

necessary to preserve our infrastructure and 

patchwork state policies increase the costs of 

interstate commerce. In the absence of any 

new thinking, and a willingness to make hard 

decisions, the performance and condition of the 

entire transportation system decreases overall, 

acting as a drag on the economy, constraining 

its growth. If this sounds familiar, it’s because 

many of these trends are already affecting our 

transportation system. And they may only get 

worse if we fail to act. 

From Gridlock to Deadlock: 

How We Move

Petroleum prices remain relatively stable in large 

part due to strong domestic production, so the 

vehicle fleet is still largely powered by gasoline 

and diesel. Fluctuations in oil prices continue to 

cause occasional price shocks. However, without 

significant market or policy incentives in place to 

encourage major technological breakthroughs 

in alternative fuels or battery capacity, there 

are none, with the exception of some niche 

applications. The low price of fuel encourages 

Americans to increase their driving. 

Congestion increases significantly in major 

metropolitan areas. Although congestion is 

viewed as a major inconvenience, especially 

when combined with the deterioration of 

roads and bridges, suburbs continue to grow. 

Housing prices in the city centers of high-growth 

metropolitan areas increase precipitously, 

becoming unaffordable to most Americans; 

suburban growth is fueled by land and housing 

that is less expensive. To adapt to congestion, 

many companies have generous telework 

policies and flexible schedules. However, there 

is a growing divide between Americans who are 

able to take advantage of these flexibilities and 

those who are not.

Transit use remains strong in large cities with 

heavy-rail systems; transit system construction 

stalls in Sunbelt cities, with the construction of 

few new light rail, streetcar, or bus rapid transit 

lines. Ridership increases nationally, but transit 

still accounts for less than one in 10 commutes. 

Transit services become increasingly expensive 

to provide: the population grows older and more 

suburban, infrastructure and fleet-replacement 

costs mount, and transit agencies face legacy 

retirement and health-care costs for their 

employees. Fares increase, disrepair becomes 

more widespread, and the quality of service, 

particularly in poorer neighborhoods, declines.

Intercity passenger rail increasingly provides 

efficient services in many markets, including the 

heavily used Northeast Corridor, throughout 

California and in the Chicago region. Some 

services, including long-distance routes, continue 

to rely on a public operating subsidy to provide 

critical national connections between regional 

networks. While revenues may not be gained 

annually in these markets, these routes provide 

mobility options for communities—including 

across rural landscapes. 

Passenger air travel increases and remains 

affordable, but air traffic delays become 

more frequent. Airports with high volumes 

of international travelers find ways to 

generate revenues through user fees or 

retail receipts. Regional airports, on the other 

hand, face reduced services, and many rural 

airports depend on federal subsidies. Airport 

infrastructure and air traffic control, particularly 

at the largest, busiest airports, are not able to 

keep up with the growth in passenger demand. 
185 BEYOND TRAFFIC

PlaNYC: A Stronger, More Resilient New York

According to the City of New York’s PlaNYC, the New York City Panel on Climate Change 

(NPCC) predicts that, by the 2050s, the city may see as much as 30 inches of sea-level 

rise and twice the number of residents (up to 800,000) living in the 100-year-floodplain. 

To make the transportation system more resilient, the city is seeking to protect 

critical elements of the system from damage, maintain system operations during 

extreme events, and put in place backup transportation options in case of system 

interruption. The city has already raised traffic control signals above flood elevation in 

vulnerable areas, nearly completed road reconstruction and drainage infrastructure 

along roads in some vulnerable and impacted areas, and has begun to plan with 

a variety of city agencies to identify critical transportation network elements and 

improve transportation responses to major events through regular resiliency planning 

exercises.

From Gridlock to Deadlock: 

How We Move Things

Freight traffic increases as the population 

grows. Trucking carries an increasing portion 

of freight, but increasing congestion, combined 

with unreliable infrastructure, reduces service 

reliability. More hazardous materials are 

transported by truck, thereby increasing safety 

risks.

Traffic at a few large container ports increases 

rapidly, as does intermodal traffic. Other ports 

struggle to compete despite significant subsidies 

from states and metropolitan areas that are 

trying to generate local economic activity. 

Intermodal traffic increases rail revenues, 

but capacity constraints limit the amount of 

freight that can be shifted to rail. Domestic 

maritime freight declines as locks and dams 

critical to internal waterways fall into disrepair 

or fail. Increasing shipping costs reduce the 

competitiveness of American businesses abroad. 

Air freight triples and the economy at air freight 

hubs thrives. 

From Gridlock to Deadlock: 

How We Adapt 

The negative impacts of climate change are 

felt broadly. The increasing frequency and 

intensity of severe weather events cause 

major disruptions to travel and the closure of 

critical transportation facilities to become more 

commonplace. Critical airports and ports are 

shut down by major storm-surge events with 

increasing frequency. The costs of disaster 

recovery increase significantly. 

Passenger and freight traffic gradually shifts to 

less vulnerable areas. Great sums are expended 

on improving the resiliency of such facilities—

but only on a case-by-case basis, and usually 

after major damage has already been sustained. 

Such spending rarely improves the economic 

competitiveness of areas now perceived as 

unreliable, and is derided. National climatechange regulations have not been introduced.
SHAPING OUR FUTURE: CHOICES IN CHANGING TIMES 186

From Gridlock to Deadlock: 

How We Move Better

Vehicle automation has progressed 

incrementally, but because a comprehensive 

regulatory framework was never established 

for them, fully automated vehicles are not 

permitted on public roadways. Only a patchwork 

of local, regional, and commercial standards 

and applications exists, yielding a number of 

technological and operational incompatibilities. A 

few high-profile safety incidents result in further 

limitations on automation features. Meanwhile, 

automated vehicles are commonplace in other 

developed countries. Fortunately, driving 

continues to become safer, although only 

because improved vehicle safety technologies 

contribute to declines in fatalities and serious 

injuries resulting from crashes. 

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are 

widespread, but regulations generally restrict 

them to public-sector functions, such as law 

enforcement and recreational use. In the absence 

of a comprehensive policy and regulatory 

approach to UAS, commercial applications 

remain severely limited. America is no longer 

a leader in the transportation technology 

industry. American jobs in the transportation 

sector decline as most innovation in the sector 

is driven by countries with conducive regulatory 

environments and ample research budgets.

From Gridlock to Deadlock: 

How Grow Economic 

Opportunity

Housing and transportation costs consume 

an increasingly large portion of household 

budgets. White collar workers telework whenever 

possible or move to rapidly gentrifying cities 

and inner suburbs where the commutes are still 

bearable. Urban housing prices in economically 

thriving cities become unaffordable to the 

average worker as suburban living increasingly 

unattractive. Commutes grow in length and 

time for low- and middle-income workers as 

they seek affordable housing in distant exurbs. 

Many individuals give up looking for work in the 

formal economy—with such lengthy commutes, 

it’s hardly worth it. Private vanpools and blackmarket jitneys become an increasingly common 

form of transportation for low-income suburban 

workers beyond the reach of convenient 

public transit. As inequality grows, economic 

segregation and suburban poverty increase 

and many Americans struggle to meet their 

daily needs for shelter and mobility. In failing 

suburbs with declining tax revenues, traffic safety 

enforcement is seen merely as a method of 

forcefully extracting revenues from low-income 

and minority residents. Incidents of social unrest 

become more prevalent. 

From Gridlock to Deadlock: 

How We Align Decisions and 

Dollars

The federal fuel tax has not been increased, 

and no alternative funding source has been 

identified for the Highway Trust Fund. As a result, 

Knoxville, Tennessee 

Adopted in 2013, the Knoxville 

Regional Planning Organization Long 

Range Mobility Plan 2040 identified 

the need to leverage and invest in 

technologies in transportation. It 

identified strategies to coordinate 

local investments in intelligent 

transportation systems by transit 

providers to improve service and 

efficiency.
187 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Charlotte 2030 Transit Corridor System Plan

On November 15, 2006, the Metropolitan Transit Commission (MTC) adopted the 2030 

Transit Corridor System Plan. This updated, long-range plan consists of multiple rapid 

transit improvements in five corridors, a series of Center City improvements, and bus 

service and facility improvements throughout the region. The implementation plan 

for the 2030 Transit Corridor System Plan includes the North and Northeast Corridors 

seeing early implementation followed by the streetcar project. Once complete, the 

2030 Transit Corridor System Plan will consist of 25 miles of commuter rail, 21 miles of 

light rail, 16 miles of streetcar, 14 miles of bus rapid transit, and an expanded network 

of buses and other transit services. efficiency.

revenues do not keep pace with needs—in fact, 

they have continued to decline, as the average 

fuel economy of cars and trucks has increased. 

The Highway Trust Fund is maintained through 

transfers from the General Fund and short-term 

budget fixes (as political conditions permit), but 

its purchasing power continues to decrease. 

Multi-year surface transportation authorizations 

are no longer the norm; transportation spending 

is instead authorized mainly through shortterm bills and extensions. Political deadlocks 

sometimes result in withholding of federal 

funding, creating economic uncertainty.

This short-term focus leads to delays in roadway 

and transit projects, especially large projects. It 

is increasingly difficult to plan for major capital 

projects requiring the certainty of more than 

one year of funding. Some needed projects are 

canceled; others never make it off the drawing 

board. The construction workforce in particular 

is affected, with short-term contract employment 

becoming more and more common. This creates 

a “skills gap” in the construction industry, and 

much institutional knowledge is lost, and never 

regained, as employment in construction 

becomes less attractive. Lack of experience and 

expertise hinders the industry’s uptake of new 

construction technologies that might otherwise 

have yielded improved performance at lower 

costs.

Changes in the aviation industry and increasing 

pressure on the federal budget create increasing 

funding instability and budget uncertainties 

for FAA, delaying the adoption of NextGen and 

delaying the integration of UAS and commercial 

space transportation into the national airspace. 

Transportation revenues are patchwork and 

increasingly decentralized. Some states have 

turned to tolling and public and private debt 

financing to fund major transportation projects. 

Other states have placed tolls on major facilities. 

Some states develop alternative sources of 

transportation revenues, including mileage-based 

fees. Other states raise vehicle registration fees, 

increase sales taxes, and revert to using General 

Funds rather than dedicated transportation 

revenues. Overall, a patchwork system of 

financing and an unequal quality of service 

between states exerts a drag on interstate 

commerce. Drivers become accustomed to 

paying tolls and fees.

Some states manage to maintain their roads 

and bridges in good condition. Overall, however, 

many states with stagnant populations struggle 
SHAPING OUR FUTURE: CHOICES IN CHANGING TIMES 188

to maintain critical transportation facilities as 

their tax base declines and maintenance costs 

increase. Due to aging and physical deterioration, 

select major facilities and infrastructure 

experience weight restrictions or emergency 

repairs with greater frequency; this leads to 

congestion on existing alternate routes. Drivers, 

especially truck drivers, are used to being 

rerouted frequently due to closed facilities and 

other emergency restrictions, such as weight 

limitations applied to bridges while critical repairs 

are conducted. Travel times generally increase, 

and become less reliable. Freight shipments are 

often delayed.

From Gridlock to Deadlock: 

Conclusion

In general, public cynicism about transportation 

increases. Vehicle manufacturers advertise their 

products’ strong suspensions and entertainment 

capabilities. The quality of the transportation 

workforce declines as the industry is considered 

a backwater, while nations such as China 

showcase the latest technologies and operational 

enhancements. Political and business leaders 

speak of “managing the decline,” and openly 

predict not just gridlock in the transportation 

system, but complete economic gridlock as well. 
189 BEYOND TRAFFIC

A BETTER PATH

To avoid going from Gridlock to Deadlock, 

we will need to make choices in a number of 

major areas. The list of choices we present is 

not exhaustive, but follows from this report’s 

analysis, and is meant to illustrate the range of 

options that can be considered. Our task is to 

understand how to prepare our policies, and our 

institutions, to lead us to the best possible future.

To set our path, we will first elaborate a set 

of principles to guide us in making sound 

transportation policy decisions. Policies should:

1. Recognize the perilous forces that threaten 

our transportation system and address 

those forces honestly, transparently, and in 

a fact-based manner framed by data and 

analysis.

2. Develop new mechanisms to adapt to 

changing circumstances and advancing 

technologies with speed and flexibility.

3. Reevaluate and simplify the roles of various 

levels of government and engage the private 

sector to foster collaborative solutions and 

partnerships to achieve common goals.

4. Assure adequate resources to preserve, 

sustain, and build transportation assets and 

support options for funding and/or financing 

new investments in 21st century assets. 

5. Advance balanced and sustainable economic 

growth without exacerbating income 

inequality or social division.

6. Support technological innovation, while 

ensuring the preeminence of safety, security, 

and privacy.

Although we do not include an evaluation of 

policy options in this document, we suggest 

that the reader evaluate the options presented 

by considering if they are consistent with these 

simple principles and by remembering this—if 

we make no policy choices, we’ve seen what will 

happen. But, this all can be avoided if we are 

willing to think differently and creatively about 

the challenges we face, and make the difficult 

choices we must confront.  

How We Move

How will we make it possible for Americans to 

get around in 2045? Our basic policy for decades 

has been to expand capacity to meet demand by 

building new facilities. This in itself may not be 

enough in the face of a growing and changing 

population, increasing congestion, and other 

factors (such as deteriorating facility conditions).

Most Americans expect transportation choices—

and the access to opportunity those choices 

bring—that are probably unmatched in history or 

anywhere else in the world today. Nonetheless, 

we face obstacles in how to maintain and 

improve those options as our circumstances 

change. How can we continue to make possible 

the mobility that we want and need? The policies 

we ultimately choose can also be used to achieve 

broader social goals. Our transportation system 

does not have to be a force that exacerbates 

social divisions and income inequality—it can be 

connective tissue that provides opportunities for 

us all.
SHAPING OUR FUTURE: CHOICES IN CHANGING TIMES 190

Key Policy Options:

3⁄4 Increase infrastructure capacity: 

build new roads, bridges, and 

other facilities; maintain existing 

facilities more effectively; use 

existing facilities more effectively 

by implementing better designs 

and technologies; or use some 

combination of these methods.

3⁄4 Reduce congestion through land 

use, telework, and flex-time work 

schedules, smaller, automated 

vehicles, and pricing.

3⁄4 Promote public transit, biking, 

and walking.

Increasing infrastructure capacity. The 

traditional response to addressing congestion 

has been to increase the supply of roads, rail, 

and other infrastructure. Particularly in fastgrowing and highly congested corridors, new 

capacity is needed just to meet existing demand, 

much less accommodate projected growth. 

Design and construction of new facilities can 

respond to the needs and preferences of current 

and future generations. For instance, younger 

people living in cities may prefer to ride public 

transit in greater numbers than their parents 

did. On the other hand, new capacity can be very 

costly to build, and even more costly to maintain 

over its lifetime. There may be physical limits to 

the construction of new facilities in areas that 

are already fully built up. Non-financial costs 

(e.g., time and environmental effects) may add 

up. And, in the long term, new facilities could 

encourage development patterns that may 

actually induce even more congestion.

But increasing capacity doesn’t just have to 

mean building new facilities. Our existing 

transportation system can in many cases be 

used more efficiently, increasing capacity 

without pouring concrete. Better designs, such 

as “Complete Streets,” could make it possible 

to handle travel growth in several different 

modes of transportation without breaking any 

new ground. In some cases, reducing highway 

capacity in urban centers can simultaneously 

reduce the maintenance burden, restore 

community connections, and create more 

developable land. And implementing advanced 

technologies, across every type of transportation, 

can also increase capacity—NextGen airplanenavigation aids, for instance, can enable planes 

to land every two minutes, rather than every 

four minutes. Incorporating modern designs and 

technologies can yield safety benefits, too, not 

just increased capacity.

Capacity may also be increased by providing 

up-to-date information to the traveling public, 

allowing people to choose the least congested, 

most efficient route or mode available.

We can also manage and maintain our system 

more effectively. Better data and decision 

making about which facilities are most critical 

to the smooth operation of the whole network 

will make it possible to precisely target scarce 

construction and maintenance dollars. This 

kind of prioritization can increase capacity 

by keeping roads open and trains running, 

reducing the time that vital pieces of our 

transportation system are out of commission due 

to their condition. Improved construction and 

maintenance practices—including new materials, 

and even innovations in the contracting process 

(such as incentive payments for early project 

completion)—also have the potential to reduce 

delays and closures. 

Reducing congestion. Matching supply and 

demand works both ways: in addition to 

increasing transportation capacity to meet the 

demand for travel, another policy option is to 
191 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Portland, Oregon

Many local communities are forecasting future population growth and developing strategies to 

address it. For example, by adopting Resolution 36918, Portland’s City Council agreed to use the 

Portland Plan to guide decision making. To this end, the City Council set a host of improvement 

benchmarks to be met by the year 2035. To measure the progress of their 12 Portland Plan 

Measures of Success, Portland strives to ensure that:

3⁄4 70 percent of Portlanders take active transportation, transit, or carpool to work, or work from 

home.

3⁄4 80 percent of Portlanders live in walkable, complete neighborhoods.

3⁄4 Carbon emission levels are 50 percent below 1990 levels.

To get there, the city is pursuing an aggressive Transportation System Plan that meets state and 

regional planning requirements and addresses local transportation needs. It includes:

3⁄4 Policies that guide the maintenance, development, and implementation of Portland’s 

transportation system.

3⁄4 A list of projects and a financial plan that will accommodate 20 years of population and 

employment growth.

3⁄4 Thorough examination of Master Street Plans and modal plans.

3⁄4 Strategies and regulations for implementation, including street classification maps.

consider how travel demand could be leveled, 

or even reduced, to meet the existing capacity 

of the system. This may mean considering how 

to address demand throughout a single day 

or within a region, to reduce the occurrence of 

congestion during peak periods, or in areas that 

suffer chronic high congestion.

One mechanism for accomplishing this is to 

use tolls that vary in cost throughout the day, 

depending on the extent of congestion. This 

creates an incentive for those with schedule 

flexibility to travel at off-peak periods. The same 

concept can be applied to all transportation 

modes to spread out demand and reduce 

congestion.

Congestion can also be managed through landuse policies that help to reduce commuting 

distance. Mixed-use developments, where homes 

are near jobs, mean that commutes are shorter, 

and often make it possible for people to walk or 

bike to work. In general, development patterns 

that promote denser land use rather than sprawl 

help to reduce total commuter travel demand. 

Employers can be an important partner in 

managing congestion through travel demand, 

if they are able to facilitate flex-time schedules 

and teleworking. This reduces the need for 

commuters to be traveling during peak times. 

Employers may also provide benefits and 

amenities that encourage employees to use 

public transit, or to bike or walk to work.

Congestion can also be lessened by reducing the 

actual amount of roadway needed by drivers. 

This can take several forms. First, smaller 
SHAPING OUR FUTURE: CHOICES IN CHANGING TIMES 192

Kansas City—Mid-Area Regional Council—Transportation 

Outlook 2040

In the future, an aging population, continued decline in the proportion of families with children, 

and changing settlement preferences could increase the demand for more walkable, transitfriendly development. While developing Transportation Outlook 2040, the Mid-Area Regional 

Council created two growth scenarios that showed alternate ways of accommodating the 

region’s expected overall growth. The baseline scenario shows how the region would look if 

past development trends were extended into the future. An adaptive scenario shows how the 

region might look if local governments continue a trend toward adopting sustainable growth 

patterns so that sustainable growth is carried out at a regional scale. Strategies and regulations 

for implementation, including street classification maps. 

vehicles require less space for parking. Second, 

an increase in ride sharing would increase the 

number of passengers per car, reducing the 

number of cars on the road. Third, just as with 

airplanes, better technologies, leading to full 

automation, could make it possible for vehicles 

to follow one another more closely without 

compromising safety.

Some efforts to enhance mobility by reducing 

congestion may align with policies to achieve 

social goals, such as improving access to jobs and 

opportunities, and reducing income inequality. 

These can include new capacity investments 

that are planned so as to connect disadvantaged 

communities to jobs. On the other hand, some 

such policies may not enhance quality of life or 

opportunities, and some congestion mitigation 

policies may even be at odds with such goals. 

For instance, a pricing policy—e.g., increasing 

commuter costs during peak times—may reduce 

congestion, but for some individuals who lack 

work-hour flexibility (particularly low-income 

people), such costs also create barriers to 

accessing centers of employment during working 

hours. Policymakers should consider how to 

mitigate these kinds of conflicts. As one example, 

the money collected from congestion fees could 

be rebated to all commuters.

Finally, freight congestion can affect passenger 

transportation, as trucks jostle with cars on 

freeways and freight and passenger trains share 

our nation’s rails. New policies or investments 

may be needed to address these kinds of 

conflicts: facilities dedicated to commercial 

use, for instance, or, drawing on automation 

technology, more advanced techniques for 

different kinds of vehicles to safely and efficiently 

share the same infrastructure.

Promoting transit, biking, and walking. 

Encouraging Americans to take transit and to 

bike and walk not only enhances mobility but can 

provide other benefits as well—improved health, 

greater flexibility, and a reduction in travel costs, 

energy use, and emissions—all while reducing 

congestion on our roadways.

How We Move Things

How can we keep our freight engine running? 

Our multimodal freight system was once the 

envy of the world, but today it is increasingly 

inadequate to meet the needs of a growing and 

changing population and economy. Congestion 

on highways and at airports, chokepoints on our 

rail system, aging locks and dams on our inland 

rivers and waterways, delays at border crossings, 
193 BEYOND TRAFFIC

and inefficient intermodal connections at our 

port facilities are resulting in lost productivity, 

increased pollution, and higher transportation 

costs. Ultimately, these costs fall on American 

workers and consumers.

Much more can be done to address the issues 

facing our nation’s freight system. Improved 

coordination between the public and private 

sectors could guide more efficient and innovative 

freight investments and operations. A national 

freight strategy that engages freight stakeholders 

across all modes and regions could identify 

actions to address major freight issues affecting 

national goals. Increased financing and funding, 

including public funding, for targeted freight 

projects could be used to alleviate bottlenecks. 

Greater attention to international gateways 

could speed freight flows across borders. Finally, 

streamlining regulations on freight movements 

could lower the costs of freight.

Improving freight planning. With the 

globalization of our economy and the growth 

of intermodal container shipping, the efficient 

functioning of our freight system increasingly 

depends on reliable and seamless freight 

movements across borders and modes to meet 

just-in-time expectations. Even so, there is little 

coordination among the myriad public agencies 

and private companies that own and operate 

our freight system to improve the efficiency 

of freight system operations and investments. 

As a result, public and private resources are 

often used inefficiently, and important safety, 

environmental, and infrastructure issues go 

unaddressed. Our country lacks a coordinated 

national freight strategy that could help to focus 

attention and investments on issues that would 

allow for the achievement of national goals. 

Strategies to improve our freight system could 

include leadership in improving freight data and 

planning processes, streamlined regulations, 

and targeted investments to address freight 

bottlenecks. 

The federal government could create incentives—

and provide guidance and technical assistance 

to state and local agencies—to integrate freight 

issues into policies and planning processes. 

Public agencies could also develop institutions 

and policies that allow for the coordination of 

freight investments across state lines, such as 

the I-95 Corridor Coalition. Federally funded 

competitive grant programs could be established 

to incentivize innovative state, regional, and local 

solutions to freight issues. States, metropolitan 

planning organizations, and local governments 

could work more closely with private partners 

in the freight industry to resolve first- and lastmile freight issues. Strategies could include 

developing strategically located distribution 

centers, intermodal centers, and “freight villages” 

to facilitate efficient movement of goods into 

and out of urban areas. For example, distribution 

centers on the edges of urban areas could be 

used to encourage the consolidation of deliveries 

into dense commercial and residential areas, 

making possible the use of smaller, quieter 

and more energy-efficient trucks. Strategies to 

address truck parking along freight corridors and 

in urban areas can improve safety and help to 

Key Policy Options:

3⁄4 Improve freight planning and 

coordination at national, regional 

and local levels.

3⁄4 Target policies and investments 

aimed at resolving freight 

congestion. 

3⁄4 Encourage innovative strategies 

to address first and last-mile 

freight issues.
SHAPING OUR FUTURE: CHOICES IN CHANGING TIMES 194

Charlotte, North Carolina

Challenging terrain and deteriorating facilities present obstacles to moving freight. 

With $364 billion in goods shipped from sites within North Carolina and $337 billion in 

goods shipped to sites in the state each year, the quality of the transportation system 

is increasingly important as a site selection criterion for companies looking to relocate 

or expand. Specifically, highway accessibility remains their number-one site selection 

factor. Eighty-six percent of goods shipped from sites within North Carolina are carried 

by truck, which illustrates that well-maintained roads without traffic bottlenecks are 

essential to a vibrant economy. 

The strength of the logistics and shipping industries in the state’s central region will 

be marginalized unless the needed maintenance and traffic flow improvements are 

made in this increasingly congested portion of the state. The call to invest in solutions 

includes enhancing access to inland ports—including improving highway connections 

and seeking economically competitive rail service to inland ports in and around 

Charlotte—and strengthening highway connectivity from mountains to coast in an 

effort to improve U.S. 74 to interstate standards from Asheville to Charlotte and from 

Charlotte to Wilmington to improve freight movements and in-state access to the 

Port of Wilmington. Without new investments to expand industrial rail access, freight 

movements throughout the region may become less efficient and less reliable. Growth 

in agribusiness will become flat, commercial warehouses will continue to move away, 

and businesses attracted to the quality of life unique to the region will ultimately 

decide to locate elsewhere. Which would mean fewer jobs available for local residents.

relieve local congestion. Regions and states could 

also work with the freight industry to encourage 

off-hours delivery schedules that reduce 

truck-related congestion. Finally, intelligent 

transportation system (ITS) technologies that 

provide real-time parking or traffic information, 

enable automated toll collection, and help to 

speed the resolution of traffic incidents can be 

applied to facilitate freight movements.

Addressing freight bottlenecks. Roadways 

and rail lines, particularly in metropolitan areas 

that are home to ports and intermodal transfer 

centers, are becoming increasingly congested. 

Policies to alleviate freight bottlenecks could 

include targeted capacity investments, or 

planning strategies and policies that influence 

the timing or location of freight movements to 

avoid congestion. Capital investments in the 

modernization of facilities or in new capacity 

can help improve reliability while also improving 

efficiency. For instance, older bridges or railways 

that restrict the total weight carried by trucks and 

trains could be modernized to allow for more 

efficient routing of freight, thereby improving 

travel times and reducing emissions harmful to 

the environment. Investments to reduce at-grade 

rail crossings could also improve the efficiency of 

freight movements and the safety of travel.
195 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Projects to increase freight capacity and 

modernize freight facilities could be undertaken 

in conjunction with private partners that would 

benefit from such improvements. To spur 

private investment in freight infrastructure, 

federal financing programs, such as RRIF and 

TIFIA, could be expanded. Tax credits for freight 

infrastructure investments could also be used 

to reduce the private sector tax burden and 

incentivize the creation of new capacity. 

The FAST Act established the Nationally 

Significant Freight and Highway Projects program 

to provide $800 million to $1 billion annually 

in competitive grants, known as FASTLANE 

grants, to nationally and regionally significant 

freight and highway projects. There remains no 

dedicated federal revenue source to support 

surface transportation freight movements; 

however, there are a number of potential 

revenue sources that could be dedicated to 

support a strengthened national freight system. 

A portion of federal fuel taxes could be dedicated 

to freight issues; however, fuel-tax revenues 

have failed to keep up with inflation and may 

not represent a sustainable source of revenues. 

Alternatively, federal freight-related taxes based 

on freight waybills or freight ton-miles, or taxes 

on imported or exported goods, could be used 

to raise revenue to address freight bottleneck 

issues. Where federal funding mechanisms 

do exist to support the maintenance and 

infrastructure of inland waterway assets and 

the dredging of harbors, funding for capital 

projects could be more focused on the most 

economically beneficial improvements. Finally, 

pricing strategies such as dynamic tolling could 

also improve the reliability of high-value freight 

shipments along congested freight corridors.

Streamlining regulations. Competition among 

shippers within and between modes can help 

ensure that shipping costs stay low and therefore 

do not act as drag on the economy. Regulations 

that inhibit competitiveness and drive up costs 

could be eliminated or streamlined. Regulatory 

agencies can work to standardize regulations 

across jurisdictions and to simplify, reduce, or 

eliminate paperwork and paperwork submission 

processes. However, many regulatory reforms 

that could lower freight costs, such as raising 

weight limits or allowing combination trucks on 

national highways have tradeoffs in terms of 

safety, security, infrastructure condition, and 

environmental impacts that would need to be 

considered.

How We Adapt

How do we ensure that our transportation 

system can weather the years to come? To 

be responsible stewards of our transportation 

system, we must work to reduce its impact on 

the environment; to keep America moving, we 

must adapt to the anticipated effects of climate 

change. We have achieved large successes in 

cleaning our air, land, and water relative to 

trends evident 30 to 40 years ago, but these were 

highly focused efforts; today, our challenge is 

to consider more broadly how we can reduce, 

mitigate, or eliminate the negative effects of 

transportation projects and operations. 

Our transportation system presents challenges— 

but it can also be part of a solution that allows 

our entire economy to adapt to a changing 

environment. We cannot always expect exactly 

when or how a Hurricane Katrina or Superstorm 

Sandy will strike, but we can work to minimize 

the disruptions caused by such events from the 

moment we begin thinking about any kind of 

transportation project. To accomplish this holistic 

goal, we need a strong, resilient infrastructure, 

backed up by thoughtful policies. 
SHAPING OUR FUTURE: CHOICES IN CHANGING TIMES 196

Reducing emissions means meeting our 

transportation demand in a less “carbonintensive” manner. This may mean, for instance, 

moving more freight by rail or water, or moving 

more people by public transit or in electric 

vehicles, assuming the electricity is supplied 

by a renewable or low-carbon source. Vehicle 

emissions are expected to decline significantly 

due to rising fuel-economy standards for lightand heavy-duty cars and trucks. Standards are 

set for all vehicle model years through 2025; new 

policies could accelerate fuel efficiency gains for 

the years to follow. The potential health benefits 

that could result from lower emissions are also 

significant.

Technological advances such as carbon capture 

and sequestration—technologies that can 

capture up to 90 percent of the CO2 emissions 

produced from the use of fossil fuels in electricity 

generation and industrial processes—may 

also significantly reduce the greenhouse gas 

emissions being released into the atmosphere.

Aligning costs and incentives. Changes in 

land use that reduce the total demand for 

transportation—such as promoting mixed-use 

developments, enabling convenient bicycling 

and walking options, and other measures that 

reduce the travel required for commutes and 

other trips—can lead to reduced energy use. 

Thoughtful policies could effectively reduce 

demand or make low-emissions alternatives 

more attractive. Such policies could use 

financial incentives to encourage cleaner types 

of transportation. Other strategies, such as 

promoting ride sharing, could also help to reduce 

overall transportation demand. 

Policies may change the relative costs of different 

modes. For instance, increasing the cost of 

carbon could make shipping goods by truck more 

expensive relative to shipping by barge. Such 

a scenario would also increase the total cost 

of travel for all modes that rely on fossil fuels. 

However, this kind of policy is likely to stimulate 

Key Policy Options:

3⁄4 Reduce transportation emissions 

by improving fuel efficiency and 

increasing the use of alternative, 

cleaner fuels.

3⁄4 Align costs and incentives 

to encourage development 

patterns, and research into new 

technologies, that can aid in 

reducing greenhouse-gas emissions 

and energy use.

3⁄4 Design and build better 

infrastructure that is more 

resilient to anticipated climatechange effects, such as severe 

storms, rising sea-levels, and 

flooding. 

3⁄4 Avoid developments in vulnerable 

locations.

Iowa—Adapting to 

Increased Flooding

Iowa DOT and local universities 

used global climate models and the 

state’s hydrological model to project 

future flood frequencies and identify 

bridge and roadway vulnerabilities 

in two river basins. Iowa plans to 

integrate the information into its 

real-time warning system to protect 

the traveling public. The results of the 

pilot may also influence guidelines for 

the design of bridges and culverts on 

Iowa’s primary highways. 
197 BEYOND TRAFFIC

research into new technologies that can reduce 

emissions and energy use, and it may prompt 

shippers, carriers, vehicle manufacturers, and 

others to seek innovative ways to reduce their 

costs.

Any revenues resulting from new policies could 

be rebated back to individuals in order to 

reduce overall costs, or could be used to finance 

resilient, energy-efficient transportation facilities.

Without an alignment of costs and incentives, 

the marketplace—both individuals and the 

private sector as a whole—is less likely to choose 

to pursue courses of action that support a 

responsible future. In the absence of coordinated 

policy, if we fail to create a more resilient 

infrastructure, the effects of climate change—

ranging from higher temperatures to sea-level 

rise—will mean higher costs, greater disruption, 

and more damage to vulnerable communities.

Designing and building better infrastructure.

In addition to reducing contributions to climate 

change-causing emissions, transportation policies 

can shape how resilient we are to the effects 

of climate change, both disruptive individual 

events (that may occur with greater frequency 

over time) and gradual, long-term changes to our 

atmosphere, land and seas. Infrastructure can be 

designed and built to be less vulnerable to heat 

or storm events, and design standards can be 

used to promote resilience through the choice 

of adopting building standards, using stronger 

building materials or building in locations that 

are less exposed to flooding, heat, and other 

impacts. While such policies may require greater 

initial investments, they may substantially reduce 

long-term overall costs. Ongoing research 

into materials and technologies that enhance 

resilience could also advance the state of the 

practice.

Avoiding vulnerable developments. Policies 

can also be used to shape where investments 

are made, and to reduce the overall costs to 

our nation for new developments in vulnerable 

areas. For instance, laws can require the 

purchase of private insurance in flood-prone 

areas, or use zoning and land-use policies to 

limit new developments in vulnerable locations. 

Funding could be made available for improving 

the resilience of critical infrastructure—or 

funding could be withheld for investments that 

are likely to be short-lived due to the effect of 

climate change.

How We Move Better

How can we make the best use of rapid 

technological advances? New technologies 

have the potential to radically improve our 

entire transportation enterprise. However, our 

regulatory, permitting, and oversight tools are 

all products of a previous era—and many of 

them have been very slow or difficult to adapt 

to technological innovations. Government 

also must balance its dual role: promoting 

technologies, but ensuring that they are safe for 

widespread adoption.

Whether we, as a society, are positioned to take 

advantage of these opportunities will depend on 

the choices we make. Will we speed or hinder the 

emergence and adoption of new technologies? 

Will we invest public funding in research? And 

how will we develop the future transportation 

workforce? For decades, when “transportation” 

primarily meant “road-building,” we needed civil 

engineers who were versed in construction and 

materials technologies. In a time of smartphones, 

autonomous aircraft, and “big data,” what kinds 

of professions and technical skills will we need 

for the system of tomorrow?

Addressing regulatory barriers. As new 

technologies emerge, we will need to build upon 
SHAPING OUR FUTURE: CHOICES IN CHANGING TIMES 198

the principles of flexibility and innovation to help 

ensure that our policies lead rather than follow, 

change, and enable us to maximize the positive 

benefits of technological improvements and the 

informative value of “big data.” Regulations will 

need to be balanced to ensure public safety and 

security while enabling commercial development 

of technologies with widespread social benefits. 

In every mode, our capacity to improve safety 

and efficiency has never been better—or more 

fraught with policy ramifications that can 

substantially affect our privacy, our footprint 

on the planet, and our ability to foster shared 

prosperity.

With many new technologies, such as NextGen 

and connected vehicles, a critical mass of people 

must adopt it for there to be any benefit. This is 

often a chicken-and-egg problem: electric cars, 

for instance, are only viable with a network of 

charging stations—but charging stations are only 

viable once there is sufficient use of electric cars. 

Once a new technology is sufficiently adopted, 

substantial network benefits may accrue—so that 

even those who haven’t adopted the technology 

can be better off. For example, the availability of 

automobiles equipped with collision-avoidance 

warning systems helps us all, not just those who 

buy such vehicles. To make these outcomes 

possible, government agencies will need to find 

ways to overcome barriers to adopting new 

technologies with clear societal benefits, while 

enacting policies that set mandatory technology 

standards or incentivize adoption of such 

technologies. In some cases, where the barriers 

are largely economic, government support 

to those with limited resources may help to 

ensure that a critical mass of users adopt such 

technologies.

Key Policy Options:

3⁄4 Address regulatory barriers to 

deployment of new technology 

or procedures; develop 

infrastructure and standards to 

support emerging technologies.

3⁄4 Collect and manage data and 

transition to a data-driven 

investment system, while 

protecting individual privacy. 

3⁄4 Support research on 

technological developments and 

deployment. 

3⁄4 Maintain a paramount focus on 

safety.

Potholepalooza: 

Crowdsourcing Urban Road 

Maintenance

In spring 2015, the Washington, D.C. 

Department of Transportation, with the 

help of the Waze app, declared a “war 

on potholes.” The “Potholeapalooza” 

campaign asked users to submit 

information about potholes via Waze. 

In just a month Potholeapalooza 

campaign, the city received 10,000 

pothole reports through Waze—more 

than three times the normal citizen 

reporting rate. The voluntary reporting 

of 650,000 Waze users in the D.C.-

area proved an effective and efficient 

way of identifying potholes. By the 

end of the year, D.C. DOT had filled 

16,500 potholes, many of those were 

identified by citizens with the help of 

Waze. 
199 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Public agencies need to be prepared to support 

and regulate rapidly emerging technologies. For 

example, in recent years public agencies at all 

levels and across all modes have had to develop 

policies, laws, and regulations to deal with the 

safety effects of distracted driving caused by the 

use of mobile technologies. At the federal level, 

the FAA is currently faced with the challenge of 

developing regulatory policies to manage the use 

of UAS, which have commercial potential but also 

present great safety, security, and environmental 

concerns that will need to be fully addressed 

before their potential can be realized. 

As cars increasingly become computers on 

wheels, NHTSA must develop a regulatory 

approach that allows performance failures 

in electronic control systems to be identified. 

Detecting a bug in software code requires a very 

different approach and skill set than determining 

whether there is a mechanical defect in a braking 

system. As connected and automated vehicles 

are deployed, public agencies will need to 

consider investing in infrastructure that supports 

their use, while addressing workforce capacity 

issues and developing policies to manage data 

and mitigate privacy concerns.

Overall, our institutions themselves may need to 

evolve. Government agencies historically have 

not changed at the speed of technology. If they 

cannot adapt quickly enough to technological 

developments in the marketplace, we will need 

to reassess our institutions so they do not 

become barriers to innovation, or deter would-be 

innovators from pursuing their work.

Collecting and managing data. For all the 

promise of new technologies, we will need to 

find ways to manage their use to preserve our 

safety, security and privacy. As collection of data 

from cell phones, payment systems and remote 

sensors becomes increasingly inexpensive and 

widespread, governments may need to set 

standards and regulations to ensure that our 

personal information is protected. This is an 

entirely new area, changing by the day. 

Supporting research. As technology advances 

in other sectors, increased investments in 

transportation research will likely be needed to 

identify and deploy transportation applications 

and to effectively manage the effects of 

technological change on the transportation 

system. Such research goes beyond the direct 

study of technology to examining a much 

broader set of related issues: for instance, the 

legal and jurisdictional implications of new 

technologies. Increased research investment 

could be ensured by increasing public research 

spending or private sector research could 

be encouraged through partnerships, tax 

credits, and subsidies. Increased research 

investments could boost efforts to commercialize 

leading-edge technologies, increasing the 

competitiveness of U.S. firms.

Maintaining safety as the top priority.

As we become more reliant on increasingly 

sophisticated technological systems, we will 

need to find ways to preserve the functioning of 

transportation systems when these systems are 

disrupted. This will require retaining redundant 

systems and maintaining piloting, driving, and 

navigation skills, even as GPS-based navigation 

systems and automated functions become more 

prevalent. We will also need to develop systems 

that can identify, diagnose, and anticipate 

breakdowns in complex technological systems. 

Finally, we will need to develop standards that 

protect such systems from malicious attacks 

that could disrupt services, sowing chaos and 

confusion.  
SHAPING OUR FUTURE: CHOICES IN CHANGING TIMES 200

How Do We Grow 

Opportunity for All? 

Transportation is about more than getting people 

from place to place. Transportation investments 

help to shape communities. Depending on 

how they are planned and implemented, 

transportation projects and service can divide, 

displace, or disperse people or they can help to 

create connected, attractive, and prosperous 

communities. Increasingly, policymakers are 

recognizing that transportation policies and 

investments can play a critical role in closing 

the opportunity gap by creating jobs, catalyzing 

economic development, saving individuals money 

and time, and improving access to economic and 

educational opportunities. By addressing rising 

inequality and promoting equal opportunity, 

transportation policies can restore the economic 

health of disadvantaged communities and by 

increasing the quality of life and social mobility of 

individuals and families, they can also strengthen 

national economic growth for the benefit of all 

Americans.

To begin to address these issues, Secretary 

Foxx has called on transportation decision 

makers at all levels of government to adopt four 

fundamental principles for inclusive design:

1. Transportation connects people to 

opportunity and can invigorate opportunity 

within communities. To the greatest extent 

possible, we should support transportation 

projects that do both.

2. While we cannot change the past, we can 

ensure that current and future transportation 

projects connect and strengthen 

communities, including areas that have, 

in the past, been on the wrong side of 

transportation decisions. 

3. Transportation facilities should be built by, 

for, and with the communities impacted 

by them. Development of transportation 

facilities should meaningfully reflect and 

incorporate the input of all the people and 

communities they touch.

4. Prioritize transportation investments in 

communities with the greatest needs and 

ensure local communities benefit from 

transportation investments.

Many low-income and minority communities 

in both urban and rural America suffer 

from a legacy of underinvestment and 

disenfranchisement. Creating a more just and 

equitable transportation system may require 

prioritizing policies and projects that help to 

meet the housing and transportation needs 

of underserved communities. Equity impacts 

should be a critical consideration in assessing 

the impacts of transportation programs, policies, 

and investments. As innovative technologies 

and business models are integrated into the 

transportation system and provide new ways of 

accessing transportation services, policymakers 

should look for ways to ensure the benefits of 

those technologies are accessible to underserved 

populations. Emerging technologies may also 

help public agencies better meet mobility needs. 

Increased transportation investment can help 

create jobs for low- and middle-income workers. 

Key Policy Options:

3⁄4 Prioritize transportation 

investments in communities with 

the greatest needs and ensure 

local communities benefit from 

transportation investments. 

3⁄4 Coordinate transportation and 

land-use policy.

3⁄4 Support affordable transportation 

services accessible to all.
201 BEYOND TRAFFIC

In metropolitan areas that have historically 

underinvested in transit, investments in rail 

and bus services that connect low-income 

neighborhoods to job centers can greatly 

improve the prospects for residents of those 

communities while supporting economic 

development. Investments may include 

expanding the transit system to afford greater 

access or increasing the reliability, quality, and 

frequency of service to shorten travel times and 

make getting to work and other services more 

convenient and accessible. To support increased 

transit investments, policy makers could reduce 

funding siloes that lead to more than 80 percent 

of state and federal surface transportation 

funding being dedicated to highways. In addition, 

lawmakers could build upon pilot efforts to 

blend federal funds between housing and 

transportation elements that currently segregate 

funds. To ensure that transportation investments 

are made equitably across regions, MPOs could 

subject their transportation plans to rigorous 

equity analysis and seek to measure the impact 

of transportation capital programs on access to 

economic opportunity. 

It should go without saying that transportation 

projects should benefit the residents that live 

nearby. But often the majority of transportation 

benefits go to those just passing through. To 

ensure that transportation investments benefit 

the neighborhoods in which they are built, more 

should be done to ensure that those investments 

provide access to employment opportunities 

for local residents. This includes planning 

transportation projects to connect residents 

to job centers. It also means ensuring the local 

residents are given a fair shot at the construction 

jobs created by transportation investments.

Coordinate transportation and land-use 

policy. Improved coordination of transportation, 

housing, and land-use policies can help 

to address declining access to economic 

opportunity for low-income workers. Investments 

in transit can be made in coordination with 

policies that encourage the maintenance 

and development of affordable housing and 

the location of job centers along new and 

enhanced transit corridors. Public-private 

partnerships in support of transit-oriented 

development could help to increase the amount 

of affordable housing with access to transit. 

Federal transportation funding policies could be 

established that disincentivize investments in 

highway capacity expansion that contribute to 

greater job sprawl and economic segregation. 

Support affordable transportation services 

accessible to all. Transportation agencies can 

support affordable transportation services by 

prioritizing accessibility over mobility and making 

investments that create safe, affordable options 

for travelers. These include investments that:

● Improve transit services and improve the 

accessibility of those services.

● Make places more walkable and bikeable.

● Repair and mitigate the effects of 

infrastructure that reduces connectivity of 

neighborhoods.

● Reduce barriers to automobile access 

through policies that improve access to 

credit, subsidize membership in car share 

services, or change welfare eligibility 

requirements regarding car ownership could 

improve access to automobiles for lowincome residents.

How We Align Decisions and 

Dollars

How will we ensure that we have the 

institutions and funding we need to 

accomplish our goals? Our institutional 

structure is piecemeal; it has been built up over 
SHAPING OUR FUTURE: CHOICES IN CHANGING TIMES 202

many decades, even centuries, in response 

to case-by-case situations. Even the U.S. 

Department of Transportation, which was 

established nearly half a century ago, is in some 

ways a collection of agencies that were created 

at different times, for different reasons, with 

separate sources of funding. In the past, our 

solution to each problem may have been to add 

a new layer or institution of governance; now, we 

have a collection of stovepipes that do not always 

work together. The solution is not to add yet 

more stovepipes—we need to reimagine the way 

we fund and govern our system. 

In times of both crisis and opportunity 

throughout our history, both our federal, 

state, and local governments and our robust 

private sector have found ways to support 

critical transportation infrastructure that has 

spurred the growth of our nation. The public 

and private sectors have worked together 

to raise the funds needed to construct and 

maintain critical infrastructure, and to coordinate 

investments that ensure that standards are 

met, and regional and national benefits are 

achieved. Visionary leadership has played an 

essential role in the planning and construction 

of infrastructure in every mode from the Erie 

Canal and the Transcontinental Railroad to our 

national air traffic control system and interstate 

highways. These investments have connected 

population centers to our frontiers, opened new 

markets, and created economic opportunities 

for all Americans. Today, however, we confront 

institutional structures that often hamper, rather 

than facilitate, the sophisticated decision making 

and funding mechanisms we need to tackle our 

toughest transportation challenges. 

Ensuring adequate revenues. The overall 

funding challenge is stark: how will we fund the 

maintenance, expansion and modernization 

of our transportation system? This is not just a 

question about how much money is needed—it is 

also a question about what kind of transportation 

system we want, who should be responsible for 

what, and how we ensure that we make the best 

use of limited public resources.

Revenues can be derived from a variety of 

sources, including mechanisms already in place 

(such as state and federal gasoline taxes), excise 

taxes, user fees (such as vehicle-registration 

fees), tolls, congestion-pricing programs, and 

vehicle-miles-traveled fees. If we want our 

nation to continue to support a world-class 

transportation system that can meet the needs 

of a growing population and a growing economy, 

we will need to raise funding levels to support 

the necessary public investment, and we will 

need policies that spur private investment. In 

recent years, many of the revenues paid by users 

that support public funding of our transportation 

Key Policy Options:

3⁄4 Ensure adequate revenues to 

address critical needs, through 

existing taxes, new excise taxes, 

user fees, tolls, congestion pricing, 

VMT fees, or other funding 

mechanisms.

3⁄4 Reduce spending to match 

revenues.

3⁄4 Prioritize investments based on 

performance outcomes.

3⁄4 Ensure clear roles of the public and 

private sectors: clarify authorities 

(greater federal role, the 

devolution of more functions to 

non-federal entities, privatization); 

improve investment coordination 

between states, MPOs, and private 

investors.
203 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Utah’s Unified Transportation Plan: 2011-2040

Future revenue increases are needed to maintain, preserve, and expand our state 

and local road and transit systems. Utah’s Unified Transportation Plan cannot be 

implemented by using only the future revenue stream from existing funding sources. 

The legislature, local communities, and the public will decide how to raise this revenue. 

The following specific strategies were assumed but will likely vary at the discretion of 

Utah’s state and local elected officials:

3⁄4 Increase statewide fuel tax or equivalent 

3⁄4 Increase statewide vehicle registration fee

3⁄4 Add local-option taxes (varies by MPO and county) 

system, such as the federal gasoline tax, have 

proven insufficient to meet the challenge of 

maintaining and modernizing our current system. 

For example, over the past decade, lawmakers 

have transferred more than $65 billion of 

General Funds into the Highway Trust Fund to 

keep it solvent.

As gasoline-powered vehicles become even more 

fuel-efficient, electric and alternative-fuel vehicles 

become more popular, and the cost of building 

and maintaining infrastructure continues to 

rise, the purchasing power of the gas tax will 

keep declining. We may need to revisit the 

fundamental assumptions that underpin how our 

surface transportation infrastructure is funded. 

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 

we will face a $167 billion budget shortfall over 

the next decade if we choose to maintain current 

spending levels without addressing revenues. 

This is unsustainable.

In recent years, a number of proposals have 

come forward to raise revenues to support 

federal surface transportation programs. 

The CBO estimates that a fuel tax increase 

of 10 to 15 cents per gallon would restore its 

purchasing power to roughly its 1993 level, after 

adjusting for inflation, and would be sufficient to 

accommodate current levels of spending over the 

next decade. Fuel taxes could also be pegged to 

inflation, so that future increases in the costs of 

building and maintaining infrastructure trigger 

automatic adjustments to tax rates. New sources 

of funding could also be derived from alternative 

user fees, such as mileage-based user fees or 

federal vehicle registration taxes. Finally, userbased revenues could be further augmented, or 

replaced, by more broad-based revenue streams, 

such as a dedicated national sales tax, carbon 

tax, or income tax.

There are also revenue challenges associated 

with the rail, marine, and aviation sectors. 

In some ways, these are even more difficult, 

given the complicated mix of public and private 

revenue streams. One priority should be to 

ensure that revenues are aligned as much as 

possible with the policies and goals associated 

with each mode: funding should support 

priorities.

Reducing expenditures. Alternatively, we could 

decide that it is infeasible or undesirable to 

raise revenues for surface transportation and 

instead cut federal funding of transportation so 

that it is in line with dedicated revenues. This 

would require an approximate 30 percent cut 
SHAPING OUR FUTURE: CHOICES IN CHANGING TIMES 204

in current federal funding levels. Cuts could be 

made in a variety of ways. Currently, the federal 

government pays for 80 percent of most capital 

projects. State matching requirements could 

be increased so that states assume more of the 

burden of funding capital projects. Eligibility of 

projects for federal funding could be narrowed. 

Federal funding for transit and transportation 

alternatives from gas tax revenues, which 

account for approximately 17 percent of Highway 

Trust Fund revenues, could be eliminated 

in favor of road projects. Federal funding 

could be prioritized for critical maintenance, 

reconstruction, and replacement of existing 

roads, bridges and transit infrastructure, while 

federal support for capacity expansion projects 

could be limited to financing and tax subsidies.

Prioritizing investments to emphasize 

performance. Transportation programs and 

funding sources could be more closely tied to 

performance metrics, so that a greater portion 

of federal funding is dedicated to investments 

that demonstrably support national objectives. 

Federal requirements could be strengthened 

to ensure that lower levels of government 

use planning processes that fully consider the 

economic costs and benefits of transportation 

projects, and collect data on completed projects 

that allows them to assess whether the stated 

goals of a particular project are actually being 

met. 

Ensuring clear roles. Proper governance is 

about much more than the question of doing 

more or less: it should be about doing things 

better. Transportation programs and institutions 

could be reformed to increase their efficiency 

and effectiveness. This could result in better 

decisions, lower costs, and faster delivery of 

infrastructure projects. 

Traditionally, most federal surface transportation 

funding is distributed to states through formulas 

set by Congress and based on factors such as 

road miles, road usage, and state population. 

One way to reform federal transportation 

programs would be to revisit who has authority 

over how federal transportation dollars are 

spent. Currently, only a small portion of federal 

funding is allocated at the discretion of the U.S. 

DOT; most transportation investment decisions 

are made by states and metropolitan planning 

organizations. A greater portion of federal 

funding could be dedicated to competitive grant 

and financing programs with criteria tied to 

national objectives.

Or, the federal government could be given 

less control over federal funding; investment 

decisions could be transferred to states, or to 

other governance structures, including new 

institutions, perhaps organized around emerging 

megaregions. Federal requirements tied to 

federal funding—such as environmental and 

labor standards—could be reduced or eliminated 

in favor of standards established by other 

bodies. Federal transportation funding could be 

allocated in block grants, reducing limitations 

on the use of funding to support particular 

programmatic objectives such as safety or air 

quality. Alternatively, increased funding flexibility 

could be granted as a reward for states that 

demonstrate good governance and planning 

practices.

Policies could be adopted that support increased 

private sector participation in the transportation 

sector with the goal of speeding the delivery 

of projects and improving the efficiency of 

operations and maintenance. More states could 

adopt policies that support the use of private 

financing to deliver transportation projects 

and the federal government could support 

tax policies that encourage greater private 
205 BEYOND TRAFFIC

investment in infrastructure. Management of 

transportation systems and facilities, such as 

the air traffic control system or public toll roads, 

could be privatized or restructured to operate 

more like a business, potentially generating 

near-term revenues and creating long-term cost 

savings for government agencies. Regulatory 

bodies could find ways to reduce barriers of 

entry and encourage competition among private 

firms seeking to provide transportation services 

in all modes. 

Conclusion

Our transportation network is the tie that literally 

binds our nation together. It sows the seeds of 

economic opportunity and national prosperity 

one row at a time, and links those rows to each 

other—neighbor to neighbor, town to town, 

state to state, all into one nation. It is the finest 

transportation system the world has ever known. 

But it is aging and increasingly incapable of 

bearing the load our future demands.

It is perhaps the greatest testament to our 

forebears and their dedication to us that we 

enjoy this system in relative complacency. 

They built the transcontinental railroad. They 

built the Panama Canal. They built a national 

highway system. They carved an inland 

waterway of locks and dams. They established 

the world’s first—and still the most robust—air 

traffic control system. They broke the sound 

barrier and put men on the moon. It is because 

they envisioned a better future and endured 

sacrifices to achieve it that we are even in a 

position to choose which future we want now.

But there is a difference between having choices 

and making choices. By knowing more about 

trends impacting upon our transportation system 

over the long term, we hope to make clear that 

current and future conditions will require greater 

coordination between levels of government and 

between government and the private sector. 

We will make our choices one stitch at a time, in 

state capitals, city halls, corporate boardrooms, 

and union halls. All of them, put together, reflect 

where we will go.

The future is always a choice.
MEGAREGION FORUM 206

BEYOND 

TRAFFIC 2045: 

MEGAREGION 

FORUMS

Introduction

In September and October of 2015, we held a 

series of discussions on the themes of Beyond 

Traffic: Trends and Choices 2045 in 11 cities 

across the country. The goal of Beyond Traffic is 

to start a conversation. We wanted to hear from 

regional transportation stakeholders about what 

the trends identified in Beyond Traffic meant for 

their region. Participants ranged from elected 

officials to students. They included transportation 

planners, bicycle advocates, freight carriers, port 

operators, business owners, and community 

leaders. 

Each city we visited represented a hub of an 

emerging megaregion. As described in Beyond 

Traffic, megaregions are networks of urban 

clusters connected by economic and social 

relationships. These megaregions will grow 

in importance as engines of economic growth 

as our nation’s population in metropolitan 

regions grows. Residents and businesses in 

these megaregions often depend on the same 

critical infrastructure—airports, ports, rail 

“MILLENNIALS, BABY BOOMERS, 

AND THE REST CANNOT AND 

SHOULD NOT BE PIGEONHOLED 

INTO SPECIFIC NEEDS OR WANTS—

IT COMES DOWN TO OPTIONS. I 

AM A MILLENNIAL LIVING IN AN 

INNER-RING SUBURB...I DRIVE TO 

WORK, BUT VALUE MY COMMUTE 

OF LESS THAN 10 MINUTES. 

OUTSIDE OF WORK, I USE TRAILS, 

I BIKE, I WALK, AND VALUE THOSE 

OPPORTUNITIES. THEY’VE REALLY 

INFLUENCED MY CHOICE OF WHERE 

I LIVE, AND WHERE I WILL BE IN THE 

FUTURE.” – FORUM PARTICIPANT
207 BEYOND TRAFFIC

lines, and freight corridors. Yet the planning and 

operation of our transportation system is rarely 

coordinated across these regions. As regional 

entities become increasingly interdependent and 

transportation issues grow in geographic scale, 

transportation stakeholders within megaregions 

will need to work together to remain competitive 

in the global economy. 

To plan and operate the transportation system 

of the future, we need to build collaborative 

relationships and institutions that reflect the 

growing interdependence of megaregions. That’s 

why we brought transportation stakeholders 

together in the following cities, each representing 

a different megaregion:

● Sacramento, Northern California, 

September 18, 2015

● Phoenix, Sun Corridor, September 21, 2015

● Long Beach, So-Cal, September 28, 2015

● Austin, Texas Triangle, September 30, 2015

● Orlando, Florida, October 2, 2015

● Seattle, Cascadia, October 6, 2015

● Boston, Northeast Corridor, October 14, 

2015

● New Orleans, Gulf Coast, October 16, 2015

● Indianapolis, Great Lakes, October 21, 2015

● Charleston, Piedmont-Atlantic, October 23, 

2015

● Denver, Front Range, October 27, 2015

“I BROUGHT MY 9 YEAR OLD DAUGHTER 

TO WORK AND WE WANTED TO GO TO 

LUNCH. WE HAD TO SNAKE THROUGH 

SOME SHRUBS TO GET TO A SIDEWALK, 

WHICH ENDED BEFORE THE NEXT 

ONE BEGAN. I HELD HER HAND AS WE 

CROSSED AN EIGHT-LANE ROAD TO GET 

TO THE RESTAURANT. AT LUNCH SHE 

ASKED WHY THE WALK WASN’T EASIER. 

“HOW DO PEOPLE DO THIS EACH DAY?” 

- LOIS BOLLENBACK, 

ROUNDTABLE PARTICIPANT
MEGAREGION FORUM 208

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 

(SACRAMENTO, CA)

Sacramento hosted the first of the 11 regional 

forums on Beyond Traffic at California State 

University, Sacramento. The town hall style 

event brought together citizens, elected officials, 

metropolitan planners, transportation industry 

partners, business owners, and community 

leaders from across Northern California to 

provide input. 

Panel discussants included:

● Kevin Johnson, mayor of Sacramento

● Kome Ajise, chief deputy director, Caltrans

● Steve Heminger, executive director, 

Metropolitan Transportation Commission 

● Michael McKeever, CEO, Sacramento Area 

Council of Governments

● Karen E. Philbrick, director, Mineta 

Transportation Institute 

● Victor Mendez, deputy secretary of 

Transportation, U.S. DOT

Northern California 

Megaregion

Stretching more than 100 miles from the foothills 

of the Sierra Nevada Mountains across the 

state to San Francisco Bay, Northern California 

is one of the most important and economically 

dynamic megaregions in the country. The cities 

of Oakland, Reno, Sacramento, San Jose, and 

San Francisco serve as the region’s principal 

hubs. Home to a diverse array of companies 

and industries, the region has experienced 

rapid expansion propelled by the growth of the 

technology sector. By 2050, the population of 

Northern California is expected to increase by 

over 50 percent. 

Discussion

Much of the roundtable discussions focused 

on ways to better coordinate regional 

governance, and identify new, longer-term 

funding mechanisms to support investments 

and expansion of the area’s transportation 

infrastructure. There is a need for more 

consistent land-use policies among cities, 

counties, and special-use districts across the 

state, and transportation agencies need to do 

more to coordinate transportation and land use 

policy and streamline project delivery to address 

congestion. 
209 BEYOND TRAFFIC

To address the transportation issues, Northern 

California faces planning needs to take place at 

the scale of the megaregion. 

Participants emphasized the importance of 

adopting and integrating emerging technologies 

to improve the operation and management of 

our transit systems, roads, airports, and ports. 

Transportation organizations and institutions 

need to develop stronger relationships with 

industry partners and build capacity to leverage 

big data and integrate technology to improve 

performance. 

Top Issues Discussed:

1. Technology Integration

2. Regional Coordination

3. Reducing Sprawl and Auto-Dependence

4. Mobility on Demand

5. Automation

ARTIFICIAL BOUNDARIES AND 

SILOS ARE THE ENEMY OF SMART 

THINKING AND SMART ACTING. IF 

WE ARE TO SUCCEED IN GROWING, 

INCREASE THE QUALITY OF LIFE, AND 

UPHOLD VALUES FOR OUR VESTED 

INTERESTS, WE ARE GOING TO HAVE 

TO START WORKING TOGETHER 

ACROSS THE MEGAREGION.” 

MIKE MCKEEVER, CEO, SACRAMENTO 

AREA COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS
MEGAREGION FORUM 210

ARIZONA SUN CORRIDOR 

(PHOENIX, AZ)

On September 21, 2015, leaders from across 

Arizona met in Phoenix to discuss the challenges 

and opportunities raised in Beyond Traffic, 

to listen to key regional experts and leaders 

discuss their outlooks and strategies for the 

Sun Corridor. Phoenix Mayor, Greg Stanton, 

hosted the forum, which featured Deputy 

Transportation Secretary Victor Mendez and 

more than 130 participants from a wide range 

of transportation- and planning-related fields. 

Planning and management staff from the cities 

of Phoenix, Glendale, Sedona, and Tucson were 

joined by Maricopa, Pinal, and Pima county 

officials. Regional leaders from the transportation 

industry, public utilities, and civil engineering 

firms, and professors and students from Arizona 

State University all attended. 

Sun Corridor Megaregion

Lying in the American Southwest, the Sun 

Corridor is predicted to be the fastest growing 

megaregion of the United States. The Sun 

Corridor comprises only 2 percent of the United 

States’ current population, but it is one of the 

fastest growing regions of the country; the 

population is expected to double by 2045. The 

Sun Corridor includes the cities of Phoenix and 

Tucson and has strong cross-border linkages 

to cities like Nogales, Mexico. The region 

has a robust and balanced economy with 

concentrations in advanced manufacturing, 

semiconductor production, as well as a fastgrowing aerospace and defense industry. 

Discussion

A common theme of the discussions at the forum 

was the desire to expand the capacity of the 

transportation system to keep pace with rapid 

regional population growth. Mayor Greg Stanton 

stressed the need to address congestion and 

provide transportation choice to residents of the 

region. Other participants agreed that increased 

transportation funding and streamlined 

project delivery processes would be needed to 

accelerate the planning and construction of new 

infrastructure projects. 
211 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Another common discussion topic was the issue 

of supporting the region’s aging population. 

Regional planners stressed that the needs of the 

regions aging population must be considered in 

any long-term transportation plan. 

Top Issues Discussed:

1. Streamlining Project Planning and Delivery

2. Automation

3. Improving Access for Older Americans

4. Funding Needs

5. Improving Rail and Transit Services

SENIORS WANT ACCESS TO THE 

INFRASTRUCTURE, BUT DON’T WANT 

TO DRIVE. THEY ARE INTERESTED 

IN MASS TRANSIT. THEY HAVE THIS 

IN COMMON WITH OUR YOUTH. 

MAYOR SHARON WOLCOTT, 

SURPRISE, ARIZONA
MEGAREGION FORUM 212

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 

(LONG BEACH, CA)

On September 28th, 2015, U.S. Maritime 

Administrator Paul “Chip” Jaenichen and Long 

Beach Vice Mayor Suja Lowenthal hosted a 

regional Beyond Traffic forum at the Long 

Beach Convention Center. The meeting 

featured California state senators and assembly 

members, city and county officials, directors 

of the California and Nevada Departments of 

Transportation, as well as representatives from 

industry, nonprofit organizations, port facilities, 

universities, councils of government, and various 

transit agencies. 

Southern California 

Megaregion

The Southern California megaregion extends 

east from the Los Angeles metropolitan area to 

Las Vegas, Nevada, and south across the Mexican 

border into Tijuana. Anchored by the principal 

cities of Los Angeles, San Diego, Anaheim, Long 

Beach, and Las Vegas, this megaregion serves as 

a global gateway and is closely tied to logistics 

and freight industries. It is home to some of the 

largest ports in the nation, and the population 

is expected to increase by over 61 percent to 39 

million by 2050. With more than 25 percent of its 

bridges rated structurally deficient or functionally 

obsolete and 34 percent of its roads in poor 

condition, the region will need to make critical 

infrastructure investment decisions so that they 

are able to accommodate increasing demand for 

passenger and freight travel. 

Discussion

Given the forum’s location at Long Beach, many 

participants were concerned about issues 

affecting ports and neighboring communities. 

They saw a need for policies and infrastructure 

designed to facilitate safe and efficient 

intermodal freight movement across the region. 

They also discussed the environmental and 

health implications of ports and associated 

freight traffic for neighboring communities and 

identifies strategies for mitigating those impacts.

Many participants at the forum expressed 

concerns about workforce issues. Participants 

described challenges training and recruiting 

qualified employees. They saw difficulties in 
213 BEYOND TRAFFIC

attracting talent to the transportation industry 

as a critical challenge affecting the ability of the 

industry to prepare for the future. 

Participants also identified an emerging challenge 

in ensuring the safety of walking and cycling and 

promoting their use. Many participants saw the 

improvement of bicycle and pedestrian facilities 

as a critical element of enhancing mobility 

choices and intermodal connectivity for residents 

of the region. Participants discussed policy and 

funding strategies to encourage the development 

of interconnected, multimodal infrastructure that 

improve transportation choices for all. 

Top Issues Discussed

● Workforce Challenges

● Promoting Safe, Active Transportation

● Funding Infrastructure

● Intermodal Connectivity

WE’VE BUILT OUR CITIES TO 

ENCOURAGE OBESITY, DIABETES, 

AND TRAFFIC FATALITIES. THIS IS 

BASED ON DESIGNS THAT PRIVILEGE 

FAST-MOVING AUTO-TRAFFIC OVER 

WALKING AND CYCLING. THANKFULLY, 

THIS MINDSET IS CHANGING. I 

WANT MORE COMMUNITIES IN THE 

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MEGAREGION 

TO HAVE CHOICES, WHICH ALLEVIATE 

POLLUTION, AND MAKE OUR 

WHOLE REGION HEALTHIER.

MEGHAN SAHLI-WELLS, COUNCIL 

MEMBER, CULVER CITY
MEGAREGION FORUM 214

TEXAS TRIANGLE 

(AUSTIN, TX)

 This megaregion forum was hosted by Austin 

Mayor Steve Adler at the Asian American 

Resource Center in Austin, Texas. The mayor was 

joined by U.S. Transportation Under Secretary 

Peter Rogoff, Tom Lambert, president and CEO 

of the Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris 

County, and Christopher Evelia, executive 

director of the Waco Metropolitan Planning 

Organization. The event brought together 

citizens, academics, public safety officials, and 

industry partners from across the state of Texas 

to discuss the Beyond Traffic framework in 

greater detail and make regional suggestions for 

the final version. 

The Texas Triangle

Three interstate highways, I-35, I-45, and I-10 

serve to delineate the boundaries of the Texas 

Triangle, and connect the cities of Houston, 

Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas-Ft. Worth. By 

2050, approximately 35 million people, or nearly 

70 percent of the population of Texas, will live in 

the four metropolitan areas that comprise the 

Texas Triangle. If these expected growth patterns 

hold, the metropolitan areas of Houston, Austin, 

San Antonio, and Dallas-Ft. Worth will face 

significant consumption pressure on land, water, 

and other natural resources that will need to be 

addressed in a collaborative approach. 

Discussion

A significant part of the discussion focused 

on emerging transportation technologies and 

the effect they are having and will have on 

regional transportation. Topics such as telework, 

automated vehicles, the use of big data, and 

technology access were highly discussed, with 

diverging viewpoints often emerging. Big data 

and issues of data ownership and governance 

were hotly debated, with participants asking 
215 BEYOND TRAFFIC

questions like: who should own transportation 

data and how much data should be shared? 

Participants also raised questions on 

transformative potential and difficult regulatory 

challenges presented by emerging technologies 

such as unmanned aircraft and automated 

vehicles. 

Participants also discussed the deteriorating 

conditions of infrastructure in the region. Rapid 

exurban population growth in Central Texas 

has resulted in increasing traffic volumes on 

roads designed for much lower volumes. As a 

result, pavement conditions are deteriorating 

more rapidly than expected and safety is 

being compromised. These problems can be 

exacerbated by extreme weather, which can 

cause even more damage. 

A number of participants noted that rapid 

population growth and sprawling development 

patterns have contributed to congestion and 

reduced access to opportunity for those without 

access to a vehicle. They suggested that more 

focus needs to be placed on managing demand, 

providing transportation choices, and improving 

affordable access to jobs and opportunities. As 

the population ages and the travel preferences 

of younger residents change there will need to 

be greater emphasis on transit and land-use 

planning to meet the changing demand. 

Top Issues Discussed

● Automation

● Big Data

● Congestion

● Access to Opportunity

● Streamlining Project Planning and Delivery 

A LOT OF THE CHANGES WE 

SEE TODAY ARE GOING TO BE 

AFFECTED BY TECHNOLOGY. 

I BELIEVE TECHNOLOGY IS 

GOING TO BE THE MAJOR GAME 

CHANGER IN TRANSPORTATION. 

DOUGLAS ATHAS, MAYOR 

OF GARLAND, TEXAS 
MEGAREGION FORUM 216

FLORIDA (ORLANDO, FL)

Leaders from across Florida joined with Federal 

Highway Administrator Gregory Nadeau, and 

Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer for this Beyond 

Traffic Megaregion Forum. Participants met on 

October 2nd, 2015, at the Dr. Phillips Center for 

the Performing Arts in Orlando, Florida to discuss 

freight, transit, bike and pedestrian safety, and 

technology issues. Panel discussants included 

Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, Boca Raton Mayor 

Susan Haynie, Palm Beach Mayor William Capote, 

and Miami-Dade Transit Director Alice Bravo. 

Also present were researchers and academics 

from several of the region’s major universities, as 

well as port officials, civic leaders, and industry 

leaders.

The Florida Megaregion

The Florida megaregion is one of the fastest 

growing in the country. It is also one of the most 

diverse. Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville 

anchor this megaregion, which is expected to 

grow by 80 percent from 2010-2050, with most 

of that growth occurring in or around the state’s 

major urban centers. Much of the region’s 

development is in areas vulnerable to rising sea 

levels and storms. 

Discussion

Florida is home to many older Americans and 

a significant portion of the discussion focused 

on how to improve access for older residents. 

Participants discussed ways to ensure that 

older residents can preserve their mobility and 

independence even after they can no longer 

drive. 

Another focal point of discussion was the need 

to expand modal options for travelers. Several 

ORLANDO HAS EMBRACED 

ELECTRIC CARS AND THE TRANSIT 

HERE CONSIST OF GREEN FLEETS. 

AS WE MOVE FORWARD, GREEN 

TECHNOLOGIES SHOULD BE AT THE 

FOREFRONT OF THE CONVERSATION. 

BUDDY DYER, ORLANDO MAYOR
217 BEYOND TRAFFIC

participants noted the potential for expanding 

rail passenger services between the region’s 

major cities. Others noted that Florida has a high 

rate of pedestrian fatalities and that more needs 

to be done to ensure the safety of pedestrians 

and bicyclists. Still others suggested that land-use 

patterns would need to change to make cities 

more walkable and transit more desirable. 

Many participants suggested that innovative 

technologies could provide transportation 

solutions for the region. They suggested that 

increasing transportation data could make 

driving and transit more convenient while helping 

transportation agencies better understand travel 

patterns and infrastructure conditions. Another 

area of intense interest was the use of electric 

vehicles. Participants discussed strategies for 

accelerating the development and adoption of 

affordable electric vehicles to reduce fuel costs 

and combat climate change. 
MEGAREGION FORUM 218

CASCADIA (SEATTLE, WA)

Cascadia Megaregion 

Cascadia links the cities of Seattle, Washington, 

Portland, Oregon, and Vancouver, British 

Columbia into a connected corridor stretching 

along the Pacific Ocean. On October 6th, 2015, 

U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx and 

Seattle Mayor Ed Murray hosted the sixth of 

the 11 nationwide regional forums on Beyond 

Traffic at Seattle City Hall. Panel discussants also 

included Marilyn Strickland, mayor of Tacoma 

and Lynn Peterson, secretary of the Washington 

State Department of Transportation.

The Cascadia megaregion, also commonly 

referred to as the Pacific Northwest, is 

projected to grow 41 percent by 2050. Most 

of the expected population growth will be 

concentrated in the Portland–Seattle–Vancouver 

urban corridor, which serves as the primary 

transportation and logistical hub for the 

region. Each of these cities maintains large 

ports and freight operations, which played a 

central role in the development of the region. 

Featuring a diversified economy of high-tech 

industries, aerospace firms, mining operations, 

and agriculture, as well as creative clusters in 

film, music, and green building, the region has 

experienced rapid development and job growth 

over the past decade. 

Discussion

Much of this forum focused on how to better 

plan and incorporate the expected increases in 

freight traffic while managing congestion and 

reducing sprawl. In general, participants told us 

about the need to examine the freight system 

holistically because the movement of freight 

involves all modes of transportation. Land use, 

workforce issues, safety, and existing congestion 

were all recognized as factors that need to be 

incorporated into any regional freight plan 

moving forward. There was the sentiment that 

freight was underrepresented when compared to 

other transportation-related issues. 

The need to enhance public awareness around 

the importance of freight, especially around the 

last mile, was an especially important topic for 

these participants. Accompanying the region’s 

recent population growth has been an increase in 

highway congestion, which an increase in freight 

traffic will only further impact. Participants noted 

a variety of solutions, including designated 

freight corridors, promoting modal shifts, and 

congestion pricing, but much of this conversation 

was tied into reducing sprawl.
219 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Top Issues Discussed: 

1. Freight planning and connectivity

2. Regional Equity and Coordination

3. Reducing Sprawl and Promoting Density

4. Congestion and Growth

5. Highway Congestion

6. Promoting Safe Active Transportation

PEOPLE DON’T USUALLY SEE THE 

IMPORTANCE OF PRIORITIZING 

FREIGHT—THEY DON’T SEE THE 

IMPACT. SEATTLE IS TRYING TO GET 

PEOPLES’ ATTENTION BY TELLING 

THE STORY OF HOW YOUR BASKET 

OF FISH AND CHIPS GETS TO YOUR 

TABLE AT A RESTAURANT—WHAT 

ALL WAS INVOLVED IN THE PROCESS. 

ROUNDTABLE PARTICIPANT
MEGAREGION FORUM 220

NORTHEAST (BOSTON, 

MA)

The Northeast is perhaps the country’s most 

complex megaregion. Hugging the Atlantic 

seaboard, it includes the principal cities of 

Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and 

Washington D.C. On October 14th, 2015, U.S. 

Transportation Under Secretary Peter Rogoff and 

Boston Mayor Martin J. Walsh hosted this forum 

at Boston University. 

Panel discussants also included: 

● Kathy Sheehan, mayor of Albany, NY

● James Redeker, Connecticut Department of 

Transportation commissioner

● Richard Dimino, CEO, A Better City

● Chris Osgood, chief of Streets-City of Boston

● Barry Seymour, executive director, Delaware 

Valley Regional Planning Commission. 

Northeast Megaregion

The Northeast megaregion encompasses 

the District of Columbia, as well as 11 states. 

The major cities of Boston, New York City, 

Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, 

D.C., and their respective metropolitan areas 

are home to the majority of the megaregion’s 

estimated 52 million residents. Connected by 

an array of rail and road networks, the region 

is home to some of the country’s largest 

corporations and media conglomerates.

Discussion

One of the primary needs identified in this 

megaregion forum was greater regional 

coordination. While this region does not have to 

deal with the intense population growth found 

in other areas, it will still experience growth 

from immigration. Given its high number of 

jurisdictions, we heard from participants the 

need for stakeholders to cooperate across their 

respective boundaries, and ensure that planning 

“didn’t just stop at the next line.” Enhancing 

communication between the various parties was 

considered a critical first step to engendering 

cooperation. One participant suggested, 

“There should be incentive for states to work 

together, to talk to each other.” Another stated 

that to enhance cooperation they would need a 
221 BEYOND TRAFFIC

megaregion planning framework or a long-range 

plan for improved coordination among planning 

groups. 

The Northeast has very little room to build 

new rights of way and must make better use of 

existing infrastructure by squeezing additional 

capacity out of existing modes. It was recognized 

that there is a need to balance maintaining aging 

infrastructure and infrastructure expansion. 

Top Issues Discussed:

1. Regional Coordination

2. Reducing Distance between Job and 

Residence

3. Promoting Safe Active Transportation

4. Improving Access for Older & Disabled

5. State of Repair

6. Construction and Maintenance Costs

THE CHALLENGE BETWEEN 

MAINTENANCE AND EXPANSION 

IS REAL BUT WE CAN’T WALK AND 

CHEW GUM AT THE SAME TIME. 

BARRY SEYMOUR, DVRPC
MEGAREGION FORUM 222

GULF COAST (NEW 

ORLEANS, LA)

With a multitude of significant ports, as well as a 

growing population, the Gulf Coast megaregion 

will play an important role in shaping the 

economic future of the United States. On October 

16, 2015, participants met at the Regional 

Transit Authority Headquarters in New Orleans, 

Louisiana to discuss issues pertinent to this 

megaregion. 

Panel discussants included: 

● Andy Kopplin, New Orleans deputy mayor

● Kip Holden, mayor, Baton Rouge

● Larry L. “Butch” Brown, mayor, Natchez, MS

● Sherri H. LeBas, secretary of the Louisiana 

Department of Transportation

Gulf Coast Megaregion

Traversing a network of counties and parishes 

across Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, 

and Florida, the Gulf Coast megaregion is 

expected to grow 76 percent from 2010-2050. Its 

largest city, Houston, Texas, is rapidly growing, 

and now considered the fourth largest city in 

the United States. Other major urban centers 

include the cities of New Orleans and Baton 

Rouge, Louisiana, Corpus Christi, Texas, and 

Mobile, Alabama. The regional economy is 

highly specialized in the energy, agribusiness, 

petrochemical, logistics, and transportation 

industries.

Discussion 

The Gulf Coast region is experiencing a rapidly 

growing population, with increasing freight 

volume and demographic shifts in rural and 

urban areas. Their transportation system is 

facing more frequent extreme weather events, 

particularly hurricanes. Participants indicated 

that freight bottlenecks are a critical threat 

that pose a danger to the regional economy, 

especially given the expected increases in freight 

traffic over the next 30 years. 

Other participants noted that there is a need 

to better collaborate across city, parish/county 

and state lines, and recognize that smaller ports 

may be an effective way to distribute future 

demand. It was recognized that, “Collaborative 

efforts are a necessity in today’s transportation 

environment.” 

Many of the employment opportunities prevalent 

throughout the megaregion require specialized 

labor and skill sets, which is likely why many 
223 BEYOND TRAFFIC

of the participants cited workforce issues 

more frequently than any other topic during 

roundtable discussions and presentations. 

As one participant noted, “Workforce is 

important; you need the right people to make 

the system work.” We heard that the region 

needs to do more to improve the identification 

of employment opportunities—and then link 

residents with the skills/tools necessary to obtain 

those jobs. 

Top Issues Discussed: 

1. Workforce Issues

2. Improved Freight Planning

3. Expected Growth in Freight

4. Intercity Rail

5. Intermodal Connectivity 

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SEPARATES 

TWO STATES, BUT IT SHOULD NOT 

SEPARATE COMMUNITIES.

BUTCH BROWN, MAYOR, NATCHEZ, MS
MEGAREGION FORUM 224

GREAT LAKES 

(INDIANAPOLIS, IN)

Beyond Traffic Megaregion Forum participants 

met on October 21, 2015, at the University 

of Indianapolis to examine transportation 

trends and potential policy considerations for 

their megaregion spanning from Minneapolis, 

Minnesota to Rochester, New York, and 

stretching south to St. Louis, Missouri.

Panel discussants included: 

● Peter Rogoff, U.S. Transportation undersecretary

● Greg Ballard, mayor of Indianapolis

● Grace Gallucci, executive director, Northeast 

Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency

● Sean Northup, executive director, 

Indianapolis Metropolitan Planning 

Organization 

● Brandye Hendrickson, Indiana Department 

of Transportation commissioner 

Great Lakes Megaregion

Unlike other megaregions connected by a single 

corridor, the Great Lakes region is dispersed 

across the Midwest in a “hub and spoke” network 

with many of its major cities situated near its 

namesake geography. While projected to be one 

the slowest growing megaregions in terms of 

population growth, the region still has a diverse 

economic base. Much of the United States’ 

transportation infrastructure passes through 

the region, and it features some of the country’s 

busiest airports, and is considered a major 

freight rail hub. 

Discussion

Due to its location in the center of the country, 

the Great Lakes megaregion sits at the heart of 

the country’s transportation network. As a result, 

we heard from many residents about the need 

to improve intermodal connectivity, enhance 

safety and reduce congestion, especially in 

terms of passenger and freight conflicts. There 

was the sentiment that developing affordable 

transportation options would help to shift the 

conversation beyond traffic. Increasing rail 

capacity and improving intercity rail were also 

topics that received a great deal of attention, 

both during the panel and at the various 

roundtables. 

There was mixed sentiment when the topic 

shifted to workforce issues. There were concerns 

expressed about the possibility of eliminated 

jobs brought by the advent of automated freight, 

but at the same time it was noted that “CDL 
225 BEYOND TRAFFIC

requirements are becoming more stringent, 

truck drivers are aging out, and the talent pool is 

shrinking.” Participants also commented on the 

difficultly with identifying and retaining qualified 

drivers. It was agreed that moving forward the 

impact of automation on the workforce will need 

to be examined more closely. 

Top Issues Discussed:

1. Workforce Issues

2. Streamlining

3. Passenger/Freight Conflicts (Safety)

4. Intermodal Connectivity

5. Increase Rail Capacity/Demand

DON’T SHY AWAY FROM 

BEING BOLD. WE FACE MANY 

TRANSPORTATION CHALLENGES 

THAT CAN’T BE FIXED BY “DOING 

WHAT WE’VE ALWAYS DONE. 

LORI MISER, HNTB
MEGAREGION FORUM 226

PIEDMONT ATLANTIC 

(CHARLESTON, SC)

Introduction

The Piedmont Atlantic megaregion forum was 

held on October 23, 2015, at the Charleston 

Gaillard Center. The event occurred just weeks 

after significant flooding devastated parts of the 

state, damaging large swaths of the state. 

Panel discussants included: 

● Anthony Foxx, U.S. Transportation secretary

● Joseph P. Riley, mayor of Charleston 

● Kasim Reed, mayor of Atlanta

● Steve Benjamin, mayor of Columbia

● Nick Tennyson, secretary of the North 

Carolina Department of Transportation

Piedmont Megaregion

Spread across a wide swath of southern states, 

the Piedmont Atlantic megaregion draws its 

name from the Piedmont plateau, an area 

characterized by gentle rolling hills and lowlying coastal regions. The region serves as a 

gateway to a diverse variety of freight and 

passenger traffic, with Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta 

International Airport, currently one of the busiest 

airports in the world, a number of large ports 

on the Atlantic coast, and a network of major 

interstates crossing the region. 

Discussion 

Coming only weeks after severe flooding struck 

the region, we heard a lot about the importance 

of creating more durable infrastructure and 

resilient transportation systems. Many of the 

roundtable discussions focused on finding ways 

to undertake this in a cost-effective manner. 

Some shared suggestions from their localities 

about cost-effective upgrades, including 

undertakings such as paving road shoulders and 

utilizing stronger, more resilient road-striping 

techniques. 

These discussions around hardening 

infrastructure often coincided with conversations 

about the current state of repair of the region’s 

infrastructure. Participants noted the backlog of 

projects necessitating repair, and how current 

projects, including bridge infrastructure were 

underfunded. It was noted that identifying 

new sources of long-term revenue would be 

important to ensure timely rehabilitation of 

these important assets, especially infrastructure 
227 BEYOND TRAFFIC

that was multi-jurisdictional. With the expected 

expansion of the region’s ports, many suggested 

that this issue will only grow in importance.

Top Issues Discussed: 

1. Harden Infrastructure

2. State of Repair

3. Increase Gas Tax

4. Passenger/Freight Conflicts

5. Expanding Transit Service

MEETING MINIMUM STANDARDS 

WILL MAKE THE CUT, BUT WHEN 

INFRASTRUCTURE IS DESIGNED FOR 

A LONGER LIFE SPAN THERE WILL BE 

LESS MAINTENANCE AND RECOVERY 

OF CONSTRUCTION COSTS. 

- PARTICIPANT
MEGAREGION FORUM 228

FRONT RANGE (DENVER, 

CO)

Introduction

On October 27th, at the Mile High United Way’s 

CoBank Leadership Center in Denver, Colorado, 

the final megaregion forum was held. Secretary 

Anthony Foxx, remarked that Colorado was an 

appropriate place to conclude their tour because, 

“The state epitomizes the proactivity required for 

a large increase in population.” 

Panel discussants included: 

● Anthony Foxx, U.S. Transportation secretary

● Michael Hancock, mayor of Denver

● John Hickenlooper, governor of Colorado

● Kelly Brough, CEO and president of the 

Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce

● Bob Yaro, co-chair of America 2050

Megaregion Description

The Front Range megaregion is anchored by the 

city of Denver, but includes the rapidly growing 

cities of Albuquerque, Santa Fe, and Colorado 

Springs. This region is expected to see a 

population increase of 87 percent, growing from 

a current population of 4.7 million to more than 

5.4 million. The region derives its name from the 

Front Range, which is a stretch of the southern 

Rocky Mountains.

Discussion

A points of emphasis during the panel and the 

subsequent roundtable discussion was the long 

history of cooperation and regional planning 

within the state of Colorado. Participants noted 

that the ability to solve very complex issues with 

collaboration from lots of different communities 

was something unique about the Denver area. 

Innovative solutions was a strength of the region 

that was cited by Secretary Foxx. He noted that 

the city of Denver has embraced innovation—

both in practice and in planning—with projects 

like the Eagle P3 transit and development project, 

funded by public and private sources.
229 BEYOND TRAFFIC

Another program that received additional 

praise was FasTracks. The FasTracks Program 

is a multibillion dollar comprehensive transit 

expansion plan to build 122 miles of new 

commuter rail and light rail, 18 miles of bus 

rapid transit, 21,000 new parking spaces at light 

rail and bus stations, and enhance connections 

across the eight-county district. In April 2016, the 

program will connect the Denver International 

Airport to Denver Union Station. Governor 

Hickenlooper noted, “FasTracks is a great start 

but we don’t have the same system in Fort Collins 

and Colorado Springs. We need to find ways to 

partner with the federal government.”

Top Issues Discussed: 

1. Regional Coordination

2. Public Sector 

3. Long-Term Funding

4. Workforce 

THE REINVENTION OF DENVER 

UNION STATION IS AN EXCELLENT 

EXAMPLE OF MULTI-AGENCY 

COOPERATION, VISIONARY DESIGN, 

AND PLACE-MAKING. IT WENT 

FROM A PRIMARILY WALK-THOUGH 

SPACE TO A VIBRANT CENTERPIECE 

OF A NEW/OLD NEIGHBORHOOD. 

TIM HARRIS
MEGAREGION FORUM 230
231 BEYOND TRAFFIC