L V- 37

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Occupational Supply:

Concepts and Sources

of Data for Manpower Analysis

Bulletin 1816

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Bureau of Labor Statistics

1974

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Occupational Supply:

Concepts and Sources

of Data for Manpower Analysis

Bulletin 1816

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Peter J. Brennan, Secretary

BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Julius Shiskin, Commissioner

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, GPO Bookstores,

BLS Regional Offices listed on inside back cover. Price $1,15.

Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents.

1974

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Preface

A primary goal o f manpower policy is to avert imbalances between supply of and

demand for workers with specific skills. Efforts to achieve this goal rely on the

availability o f adequate information about the number o f workers required—demand—

and the number available—supply—in an occupation. Although much effort has been

expended in estimating and analyzing demand, supply has received relatively little

attention. This study reviews the current state o f occupational supply information,

including uses o f such information, conceptual problems, how information requirements

vary among occupations with different skill and economic characteristics, and the

availability o f data to carry out good supply analyses. Recommendations for future

research and data collection activities also are offered. Though the discussion

concentrates on Federal activities, and emphasizes analysis o f the effect o f Federal

programs and policies on manpower, the concepts and analyses presented are applicable

to State and local manpower activities as well.

This bulletin was prepared with funds provided by the Office o f Policy Evaluation

and Research o f the Manpower Administration, U.S. Department o f Labor, and the

Division o f Science Resources Studies, National Science Foundation, to study the

impact o f Federal expenditures on employment. The bulletin was prepared by Dixie

Sommers o f the Division o f Manpower and Occupational Outlook, Office of Manpower

Structure and Trends.

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Contents

Page

Introduction. The uses o f supply inform ation......................................................................................... 1

Chapter 1. A model o f occupational supply stru cture............................................................................ 3

Description o f the m o d e l.......................................................................................................................... 3

Using the m o d e l............................................................................................................................................ 5

Chapter 2. A functional model o f occupational su p p ly.............................................. ...................... 9

Using a functional m o d e l.......................................................................................................................... 9

Elasticity ...................................................................................................................................................... 10

Identifying shortages and surpluses ..................................................................................................... 12

Chapter 3. Available supply data ................................................................................................................. 14

Current su p p ly............................................................................................................................................. 14

Occupational training d a t a ...................................................................................................................... 19

Followup d a t a ............................................................................................................................................. 21

Occupational transfers............................................................................................................................... 22

Geographic transfers.................................................................................................................................. 24

Entrants from outside the labor fo r c e .................................................................................................. 24

Separations from the labor force and deaths .................................................................................... 25

Occupational earnings............................................................................................................................... 26

Analytical stu d ies....................................................................................................................................... 27

Chapter 4. Directions for the f u t u r e ........................................................................................................... 28

B ibliography........................................................................................................................................................... 30

Chart 1. Rows of workers into and out of an occu p a tio n .................................................................... 4

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Introduction. The Uses of Supply Information

This bulletin focuses on approaches to studying

occupational supply that will produce information

needed for decisionmaking in manpower policy and

planning, educational planning, and vocational guidance

and counseling. Decisionmakers in these activities

require a basic core o f information on supply. In order

to develop effective policies for avoiding potential

supply-demand imbalances by altering supply conditions, they also need analysis o f the factors that

influence supply.

Many forms o f government action affecting the

supply o f workers can be used to correct supply-demand

imbalances. The training of new workers in particular

occupations can be expanded or contracted. Trained

workers outside the labor force, especially women, can

be attracted into the market to fill demand. Occupational and geographic mobility can be increased through

retraining, relocation allowances, and job information

programs.

Selecting the proper type o f action and designing an

effective program to carry it out depend in part on

obtaining adequate information. Policymakers must be

able to identify and measure supply-demand imbalances,

sometimes by region and industry as well as by

occupation. They need to know the number o f workers

currently available, what occupations to train workers

for, how to train them, how many to train, and where to

help workers relocate. They must understand the occupation’s supply structure—how workers enter the occupation, how long their training takes, where they come

from, and why they leave. They also need to understand

how supply responds to wage levels, union rules, pension

plans, licensing regulations, and other economic and

noneconomic factors.

The need for supply information has been recognized

by the government in a variety o f ways. In manpower

legislation, for example, both the Manpower Development and Training Act o f 1962 (MDTA) and the

Comprehensive Employment and Training Act o f 1973

specify that program planners must show evidence that

shortages exist in the occupations for which they wish to

offer training. Despite Federal and State efforts, however, one of the major difficulties in implementing such

legislation has been the inability o f planners to define

and identify skill shortages.1

An area o f government manpower policy that has

been increasing in importance is an assessment o f the

supply of specific kinds o f workers to see if supply is in

line with the demand generated by the impact of

government expenditures or policies. Such information

can help planners determine whether sufficient supply

will be available when needed, if supply can expand or

contract easily in response to government policy, and, if

it cannot, what specific labor force problems stemming

from supply-demand imbalances need to be resolved.

The need for assessing what manpower is required to

implement specific government programs was recognized

during the past decade. The Federal effort in health care

is a major example. National health proposals o f both

the Johnson and Nixon administrations recognized that

providing better health care requires not only a financing

system but also more workers in health occupations to

meet the demand generated in part by Federal programs.2 Health legislation, therefore, included not only

programs such as Medicare and Medicaid that increased

the availability o f health services, but also provided for

continuing studies o f the health manpower situation and

increased funds for training in the Nurse Training Act of

1964 and the Comprehensive Health Manpower Training

Act o f 1971. Actions to increase supply were based on

manpower studies, although not on formal impact

studies.

Use o f supply information in educational planning

occurs primarily at the State and local levels in both

public and private institutions. Planners rely on a variety

o f criteria in selecting and financing programs. Man1 See “Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Institutional 

Manpower Training in Meeting Employer’s Needs in Skills 

Shortage Occupations” (Salt Lake City, Utah: Olympus 

Research Corp., June 1972), mimeo.

2 See, for example, Report o f the National Advisory

Commission on Health Manpower (Washington: Government 

Printing Office, 1967), 2 vols., and Health Message from the

President o f the United States, Relation to Building a National

Health Strategy (92d Cong, 1st sess., House Document No. 

92-49, 1971).

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power criteria are more important to planners responsible for specific types o f occupational training, such as

vocational education, apprenticeship, on-the-job training

programs, and some areas o f higher education, than to

planners concerned with general education. Occupational supply-demand information is useful in determining what kinds o f training to offer during periods of

contracting or expanding demand, so that graduates will

be able to find jobs and the economy will have adequate

supplies o f skilled manpower. 3 Educational planners also

are concerned with the supply o f teachers and other

personnel required to carry out programs. In vocational

guidance and counseling, supply information is used

3 For elaboration of the role of manpower information in 

vocational-education planning, see Robert C. Young, William 

Clive, and Benton Miles, Vocational Education Planning: Manpower Priorities and Dollars (Columbus: The Ohio State University, Center for Vocational and Technical Education, 1972).

together with information on demand to help the

counselee find an occupation in which he has a

reasonable chance of finding employment.

This bulletin is designed to aid researchers investigating specific aspects o f supply by providing background

for conducting supply analyses. While the report provides conceptual background, it does not present actual

methods for analysis. The reader is referred to the

methodological studies and analyses o f individual occupations listed in the final section o f the bibliography.

The first chapter presents a model o f supply useful

for studying the structure o f supply in any given

occupation. The second chapter explores ways o f analyzing supply behavior within the framework o f traditional

labor market economics. Chapter 3 discusses existing

data available for using the analytical models presented

in chapters 1 and 2. The concluding chapter presents

recommendations for basic research on supply that will

lead to better supply information.

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Chapter 1. A Model of Occupational Supply Structure

This chapter presents a model that illustrates the flow

of workers into and out o f an occupation. The model

provides a framework for analyzing an occupation’s

supply structure and identifying the factors affecting the

structure. It helps answer such questions as: What skills

are required? Where do entrants learn the skills? How

many workers can be expected to enter the occupation?

What are the barriers to entry? How many workers will

leave the occupation?

In the model described here, supply is defined in

terms of the number o f individuals working or seeking

work in an occupation at a given time. This definition is

different from the textbook concept o f supply, which

describes a functional relationship between wages and

workers’ willingness to offer their services. Analysis of

functional relationships, however, is crucial to an understanding of the factors that influence supply and is

discussed in chapter 2.

DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL

The model of supply structure illustrated in chart 1

describes the flow o f workers into an occupation from

various sources and out o f an occupation for various

reasons. Although not noted on the chart, workers also

may move between the sources o f entry or separation. A

graduate of a specific training program, for example,

may remain outside the labor force for a while before

entering an occupation. To avoid confusion in statistical

presentations, each entrant is classified according to his

status at the time o f entry. The time frame for most

analyses is a calendar year, although other periods such

as quarters or academic years may be used if suitable

data are available. The following text describes each

aspect of the chart.

A. Current supply

Current supply is often defined as current employment, primarily because current employment is often

the only available information. However, this definition

is inaccurate because employment levels result from the

interaction of both supply and demand.

Current supply properly includes the number of

workers employed plus the number o f unemployed

persons seeking work in the occupation at a given time.

Including the unemployed provides a more complete

indication of the actual number of workers available in

the occupation.

An alternative supply concept, “potential supply,’’

would include, in addition to the current supply defined

above, persons qualified for the occupation who are not

members of the current supply. For example, certified

teachers who are working in other occupations or who

are out of the labor force would be part o f the potential

supply o f teachers because, under certain circumstances,

they may enter the current supply o f teachers by

searching for a teaching job. The potential supply

concept is especially important in considering occupations with a shortage or a surplus. In a shortage

situation, the potential supply represents a means of

relieving the shortage by attracting the potential supply

into the current supply o f workers. In a surplus, the

potential supply may represent the underemployment of

trained workers.

Although the discussion in this chapter refers only to

the number of persons employed and unemployed, the

definition can be refined to represent the number of

hours, man-days, or man-years o f work supplied. Such a

refinement may be important when analyzing occupations with large proportions o f part-time or seasonal

workers.

B. Entries

1. Entries from specific training programs include

persons who have completed training designed to qualify

them for a specific occupation. This group includes, for

example, engineering graduates who enter engineering

and vocational school trainees completing automotive

mechanics courses who become automobile mechanics.

In some occupations specific training programs are

the most important or the only source o f entrants. For

example, medical and dental schools are the primary

sources of new physicians and dentists. Supply analysis

for such occupations will concentrate on the number of

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enrollments, the proportion o f enrollees who complete

the training, and the rate o f entry o f graduates into the

occupation.

2, Entries from other training programs include

graduates o f programs that provide training not directly

related to the occupation, such as mathematics graduates

who enter jobs in engineering or economics. Dropouts

from specific training programs who are qualified for

other occupations, such as engineering dropouts who

become technicians, are also included in this group.

3. Entries who are transfers from other occupations may come from several sources: upgrading (e.g.,

technician to engineer), transfers from related occupations (e.g., automobile mechanic to farm equipment

mechanic), and transfers from unrelated occupations

(e.g., teacher to salesman).

4. Entries from outside the labor force include

workers with the necessary training who have been out

o f the labor force for some period. They may be

reentrants, or new entrants with no previous experience.

This group is made up almost entirely o f women who

have left the labor force for family responsibilities, and

therefore is an important source of supply in teaching,

nursing, and other occupations composed primarily of

women. Veterans, retirees who return to work, and

persons leaving institutions such as prisons are also

included in this group.

5. Entries from immigration include workers who

enter an occupation after moving into the country. In a

State or local area, this group includes migrants from

other States or areas. 4 An important type o f immigrant

or migrant is the individual who worked in the occupation before moving into the area. Immigrants are

important nationally only in a few occupations, but

migrants may be an important source of supply to a

local or regional labor market.

C. Separations

1. Transfers to other occupations include workers

who leave the occupation to enter another occupation.

A technician who is upgraded to an engineer, for

example, is a transfer out of the supply of technicians as

well as a transfer into engineering.

2. Workers may transfer out o f the labor force for a

variety of reasons. Many women leave because of

marriage or birth o f children, older workers retire, young

men leave to enter the Armed Forces, and some workers

leave because o f illness, injury, or inability to find

employment.

3. Separations because o f deaths are usually stated as

a rate or proportion o f all workers in the occupation.

The death rate depends primarily on the age of the work

force in the occupation, and sometimes on occupational

hazards and diseases.

4. Separations from emigration include workers who

move out o f the country. In a State or local area, this

group includes workers who migrate to other States or

areas. In statistical analyses migrants can be counted as

outmigrants from one area and as immigrants to another

area. National patterns o f emigration are important in

only a few occupations, usually highly skilled occupations such as the scientists who emigrated from Europe

during the so-called “brain drain.” On the State and

local levels, however, outmigrants may constitute a

significant loss of manpower.

USING THE MODEL

The step-by-step use o f the structural supply model

presented here illustrates its application to supply

analysis and describes a complete set o f data. Emphasis

is placed on the types o f information and data required.

Because complete information is rarely available for

actual supply analysis, some attention also is given to the

relative importance o f each type o f data.

Specifying the model

The first task in using the structural model is to

specify the geographic area, occupational coverage, and

the time frame o f the analysis. A properly specified

model serves as a framework for determining the type

and detail of data required.

Specifying the model requires a thorough examination of the occupation’s skill content, traditional training and hiring requirements, institutional characteristics

such as unionism and licensure, personal characteristics

o f the workers, and a variety o f other qualitative and

quantitative factors.

The initial investigation may indicate that the occupation is not readily adaptable to structural analysis. If the

skills required are minimal or quickly learned, the

sources of supply are probably so diverse that the model

becomes extremely difficult to specify. Also, diversity

may mean that the skill content is not well defined.

Problems of collecting information on how workers

acquire their skills and on the number o f workers

available from each source are complicated by a greater

number of sources o f training. Furthermore, supply

components that are the most difficult to analyze, such

as occupational transfers, are likely to become more

significant. The potential supply o f typists, for example,

4 Commuters, i.e., persons who live in one State or area but 

work in another, are not included as migrants.

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may include all persons in and out o f the labor force

who know how to type. Unless workers are barred by

discrimination, geographic immobility, lack o f information, or other barriers, they move in and out o f such

occupations as job opportunities and relative wages

change..

Defining the geographic area. In general the geographic

definition should approximate the economic labor market area applicable to the particular occupation. The

economic labor market area may be defined as the area

within which workers compete for jobs and employers

compete for workers.

Although the economic labor market area for most

occupations is local in nature, market areas for some

occupations may encompass larger State or regional

areas, or even the entire Nation. Occupations with

regional or national market areas are generally those

requiring extensive training, such as airplane pilots or

college teachers. Large market areas also apply to some

occupations with very specialized skills employed in

major construction projects such as subways, bridges,

and tunnels.

The ultimate usefulness o f the analysis is likely to be

affected if the area is improperly defined. If the area is

too narrowly defined, workers who are part of the

economic labor market area may not be included; if the

area is too broadly defined, workers outside the market

area will be included and may conceal actual supply

patterns. Analysis of the supply o f clerical workers in

Washington, D.C., for example, would exclude large

numbers of commuters if the definition were restricted

to the District of Columbia and excluded surrounding

areas in Virginia and Maryland. On the other hand, too

broad a definition, e.g., including the entire States of

Maryland and Virginia, would count persons who are

really part of the supply for other labor market areas.

Most users will find their flexibility in defining the

geographic area severely limited, since most data collection is conducted within politically defined boundaries.

Also, supply analysis usually is undertaken to design or

evaluate a program for a specific area with arbitrary

political boundaries, such as a county or State. In cases

where the analysis requires data for an economic area

that does not match the political unit for which data are

available, the alternative is to select the unit or combination of units that best approximates the area under

analysis. In the example o f Washington, D.C., the

Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area probably approximates the economic labor market area for most occupations.

Defining the occupation. Flexibility in defining the

occupation is usually limited because, unless new data

collection is undertaken, the definitions in existing data

must be used. Although many data are classified

according to established systems such as the Census

Classified Index o f Industries and Occupations or the

Dictionary o f Occupational Titles, a variety of other

classification systems are also used, sometimes applicable

only to a single survey. The Office of Management and

Budget, in cooperation with other Federal agencies, is

currently developing the Standard Occupational Classification System which will eventually be used in all

Federal collection of occupational data.5

Selecting the appropriate definition usually involves

choosing from among various levels of skill, or between

limited and broad areas o f specialty. The criteria for

selection depend mainly on the particular use o f the

analysis. Education planners, for example, may wish to

focus on the supply o f workers with a certain level of

education. Unions and professional associations may be

interested only in the supply of licensed or certified

workers. Manpower analysts assessing the impact of a

policy or program may sometimes wish to concentrate

on workers with narrowly specialized skills, and at other

times on those with a broad range of skills.

Care must be used in selecting a definition. One that

is too narrow may lead to overly complicated problems

of identifying related training and measuring occupational transfers. Analyzing the supply of chemical

engineers, for example, would require data not only on

graduates with chemical engineering degrees, but information on transfers between different types of engineering specialties. Because such transfers occur in fairly

large numbers and are difficult to measure statistically, it

is doubtful that analyzing narrow engineering specialties

would provide much significant information on the

supply in any one specialty.

Too broad a definition, on the other hand, may fail

to produce meaningful supply information, especially

information for planning specific education and training

programs. For example, while information on the total

supply of college graduates may be useful for some types

of educational planning, it is of little use in determining

the allocation of funds among different types o f degree

programs.

5 For discussion of economic criteria of occupational classification, principally high elasticity of technical substitution 

among members of an occupational class, see Glen Cain, W. Lee 

Hansen, and Burton A. Weisbrod, “Classification of Occupations: Some Problems of Economic Interpretation,” Proceedings,

American Statistical Association, 1969, pp. 199-203. The relationship between occupational definitions and wage crosselasticities is discussed in chapter 2 of this bulletin.

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Defining the time frame. The appropriate time frame

will depend on the user’s needs and the availability of

data. “Snapshot” or one-point-in-time analysis, requiring

data for only one period, may provide sufficient

information for identifying immediate supply problems

and for a few other uses.

However, because most users are concerned with

planning for the future, they require projected information on supply conditions. The preparation of projections usually depends on the availability of enough

historical data for trend analysis. Ideally, the data should

permit analysis of the flows of workers into and out of

the occupation through a span o f time long enough to

measure rates of flow with reasonable reliability, and to

observe how these rates change in response to various

conditions.

Estimating current supply

Estimates of current supply should include the

number of persons employed and the number seeking

work in the occupation. The availability o f employment

data is essential to supply analysis, while unemployment

data can be more easily omitted because the unemployed are generally a small proportion of total supply.

However, omission of information on unemployment

deprives the user of one o f the best indicators of

surplus/shortage conditions.

Identifying and estimating entries

Several methods are useful for identifying the training

requirements and the significant sources o f entries in an

occupation. Each is based on the description of skills

and job duties set forth in the occupational definition

and on information about traditional entry patterns.

Employer interviews are one source of data. Employers describe their hiring requirements, listing the specific

skills needed, the acceptable qualifications, and the kind

of on-the-job training provided. Data obtained from

employers must be interpreted with care, however.

Employers may set forth the desired hiring standards—

what kinds of workers they would like to hire—instead

of the standards they actually use. Also, hiring standards

are flexible. Comprehensive analysis requires information on how and why employers change hiring standards

and internal job structures as labor market conditions

change.

Labor unions, professional associations, government

regulatory or licensing agencies, and similar organizations can also be sources of data on skill requirements

and entry qualifications. Again, data must be carefully

interpreted to avoid using information that is biased

because o f special interests.

Another method of identifying specific sources of

entrants is to examine the characteristics of workers

already employed in the occupation. Such information is

more likely to reflect actual entry patterns than the

biases of interview respondents, especially when identifying occupational transfers and entrants with related

training. The investigation should be concerned with the

workers’ skills, their training and experience, and their

type of entry (occupational transfer or labor force

reentrant, for example). Complete training information

would identify the specific and related training by

length, content, type of program, type of institution,

and degree or certificate received. Additional data on

personal characteristics of entrants such as age and sex,

on the reasons for reentry o f persons outside the labor

force, and on the previous occupations o f occupational

transfers are useful for identifying and analyzing patterns of entry, reentry, and transfer.

Once the sources of entry have been identified,

data must be obtained on the number of entrants from

each source. Historical estimates are required for analysis

and projection purposes.

Information on the number of entrants from each

source of specific or related training usually includes

several kinds o f data. First, the number o f graduates or

training completions during the appropriate time period

must be known. Second, the number of graduates who

actually enter the occupation must be known. These two

quantities are then used to compute an entry rate. In

some cases entry rates must take into account graduates

who are already employed in the occupation before they

complete their training, and who therefore cannot be

counted as new entrants. Third, complete analysis of

entries requires information on factors affecting entry

rates, such as relative wages or job opportunities. These

factors may then be taken into account in projecting

entry rates under different conditions.

Estimating entries from occupational transfers requires longitudinal data that identify the types of

transfers and allow the development o f rates o f transfer

into and out of the appropriate occupations. These data

may be reduced to flows of workers into the occupation

over a given time, such as average annual flows.

Estimating entries from outside the labor force

requires information on the “pool” of individuals from

which entrants come, and rates of entry. The pool is the

difference between the current supply and the potential

supply defined earlier, and includes all persons outside

the labor force who are qualified for the occupation by

their training or experience. For example, a woman

trained as a teacher who remains outside the labor force

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is part of the pool for teachers. Newly discharged

members of the Armed Forces may become members of

the pool for the occupations their military training

qualifies them to enter.

Measuring the number o f entrants from immigration

requires data on the occupations o f individuals entering

the country from abroad, as well as some information or

assumption about their expected participation in the

labor force. On the State and local levels, much more

detailed data are required on migration into and out of

the area, and on the labor force and population

characteristics of migrants.

In the absence o f detailed data on immigration and

outmigration, a residual method may be employed to

estimate net migration. If all other components o f the

change in supply from one period to the next can be

measured, net migration is assumed to be equal to the

difference between the observed change in supply and

the changes accounted for by the other components.6

Identifying and estimating separations

Identifying types of separation is a much less complex matter than identifying sources of entry, since there

are only four possible types o f separation: occupational

transfers, labor force separations, deaths, and emigration. Of these four, occupational transfers and emigration are likely to be the most difficult to identify.

Occupational transfers and emigration may be handled by using simple rates o f separation, requiring data

on the proportion o f those workers who transfer out

each year. Although data are not always available, a

more complete analysis would require identification of

the occupations and areas to which workers transfer,

rates of transfer for each occupation, and data on the

characteristics of the transfers and the reasons they

transfer.

Deaths and labor force separations can generally be

estimated by applying rates of separation to the total

supply. Methods and data requirements for developing

the rates are described in chapter 3.

6 A similar method was used by Jaffe and Carleton to 

measure occupational mobility. See ch. 3, p. 24.

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Chapter 2. A Functional Model of Occupational Supply

Manpower and educational policies are often intended to treat problems arising from labor markets operating under a variety of imperfections, such as lack of

knowledge on the part o f workers and employers,

barriers to occupational and geographic mobility, and

other conditions. To devise effective policies, therefore,

decisionmakers need to know how an occupational

market functions as well as what the supply structure is.

They need to know why entry and separation rates vary,

what causes shortages or surpluses, and how workers

react to changing wages, job opportunities, and working

conditions.

Analysis of supply behavior requires a functional

model of the occupational labor market derived from

traditional price theory. This type o f model expresses

supply as the relationship between the wage rate and the

number of workers willing to work. Functional models

range in complexity from a simple graph of supply and

demand curves to an econometric system expressed in

mathematical form. Regardless o f their complexity,

however, all functional supply models share one characteristic: the wage rate is viewed as the primary mechanism for the interaction of supply and demand.

Two points deserve clarification. First, the use o f a

functional model does not imply that the wage rate is

the only factor affecting supply. A worker’s occupational choice and labor market behavior are obviously

influenced by individual preferences, abilities, and nonmonetary incentives as well as by economic considerations. The occupational choice o f the vast majority of

workers may in fact be unaffected by changes in wages.

Economic theory asserts only that there are some

individuals on the borderline between choices who, all

else being equal, do respond to economic stimuli.

Secondly, a functional model cannot a priori describe

the relationship between wages and the supply of

workers, or between wages and the demand for workers.

The application o f a functional model does not assume,

for example, that workers are in fact responsive to

changing wages. The degree of responsiveness can be

determined only from empirical evidence. If workers are

shown to be totally unresponsive to wage changes, this

evidence can be represented in a functional model as a

vertical or perfectly inelastic supply curve. The existence

of inelastic supply or inflexible wages, therefore, does

not render the model inoperative; it only changes its

representation of the market.

A functional model can provide many kinds of

information about supply. For example, in evaluating

the impact of a particular federally supported program,

policymakers want to know whether the program will

merely drive wages up in certain occupations or whether

supply will expand to meet the new demand. Estimates

o f wage elasticity derived from a functional model will

help answer this question. A functional model can also

point out the appropriate types o f policy by describing

the effects of inflexible wages, monopsony, immobility,

time lags, and other market conditions on supply.

The remainder o f this chapter discusses the use o f the

functional model, emphasizing data requirements, and

presents two important applications o f the model:

analysis of elasticity, and identifying shortages and

surpluses.

USING A FUNCTIONAL MODEL

The value of the information derived from the

structural model discussed in chapter 1 will be increased

if causal relationships and predictable behavior patterns

can be estimated for the various components o f total

supply. A functional model is, therefore, a means of

expanding the analysis of occupational supply begun

with the structural model. Functional analysis requires

the same data base as structural analysis, with two

important additions. Data on relative wages must be

available in order to estimate the relationship between

wages and various aspects of supply, and the data must

be available in enough time series or cross-section

observations for multivariate analysis.

The inclusion of the relative wage concept immediately raises the problem of selecting the appropriate base

for comparison. On the aggregate level, comparisons are

usually made with “average” earnings for some segment

of the labor force, such as prime-age male workers. For

models disaggregated to the occupational level, however,

the solution is not so convenient. The comparisons must

represent the actual alternatives faced by individual

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workers. For example, a relative wage estimate

comparing earnings of chemists with earnings of factory

workers does not represent a realistic choice, at least in

the short run. Comparison between chemists and other

scientific occupations, or even other professional and

technical occupations, would provide a more relevant

measure of relative wages. In occupations with a large

proportion of women, the relative wage estimate may

include some measure o f the choice between wages and

unpaid household work.7

The selection of the relative wage measure suitable

for analyzing each type o f entry or separation should be

guided by the alternatives specified in the structural

model. Relative wages appropriate to occupational transfers, for example, should include comparisons between

the given occupation and the occupations workers

transfer to and from. Entries from specific training

should be analyzed using relative wage comparisons for

the occupation and the other occupations for which the

training is applicable.

Once the proper specification o f the relative wage

variable is determined, at least two sets of data are

required: wage data for the occupation, and wage data

for the alternative occupations. The wage data should of

course be consistent in form from one occupation to

another, and in the same time period and coverage as the

other supply data.

ELASTICITY

One of the most significant applications of functional

supply models is the analysis of the elasticity o f supply.

This topic is discussed in detail here to introduce

illustrative functional supply models and to demonstrate

their use in policy determination.

Elasticity of supply is a measure of the responsiveness

of workers to changing economic incentives, particularly

wage rates. The coefficient o f elasticity, represented by

the Greek letter eta, 7], is measured by the percent

change in the supply (N) resulting from a 1-percent change in the wage rate (W):8

_ AN AW

^nw ~ N “ W

Supply is described as “elastic” if 77 is greater than 1,

“inelastic” if rj falls between 1 and zero, and “perfectly

inelastic” if 7) equals zero.

The closely related concept of cross-elasticity measures the effect of changing wages in a related occupation on supply. The coefficient o f cross-elasticity is

defined as the percent change in supply (N) resulting

from a 1-percent change in wages in alternative occupations (A), assuming W remains unchanged:

" N

AA

A

Analysis of elasticity is crucial to successful manpower policy. In analyzing the impact o f a government

program such as health research, for example, manpower

planners want to know if the supply o f biochemists can

be expanded at a desired rate without disruptive salary

increases. The coefficient of elasticity indicates how

salary levels will change as the required number of

biochemists is supplied. Coefficients o f cross-elasticity

measure the impact of the increased biochemists’ salaries

on the supply o f other biological scientists, technicians,

and other related occupations. Finally, analysis o f the

factors that determine elasticity can indicate possible

policies that will increase elasticity, that is, ways of

adjusting supply while minimizing the disturbance of

relative wage levels.

Cross-elasticity can also serve as an indicator o f the

appropriate occupational definition. If the occupation is

too narrowly defined, there will be high cross-elasticities

with other occupations, indicating the ease o f transferring skills.9 This is an important consideration when

using supply information to plan training programs.

Analysis of cross-elasticity also reveals how an occupation’s supply will react to changing conditions or policies

for related occupations. The higher the cross-elasticities,

the more likely the occupation will be significantly

affected by disturbances in the markets for related

occupations.

Elasticity depends primarily on the sensitivity of

individuals to relative wages. This sensitivity, however, is

likely to be influenced by the skill characteristics o f the

occupation and by the occupation’s supply structure.

Occupations with high skill levels, and therefore with

rigid training requirements, are likely to have rather

inelastic supply in the short run, since there may be no

other source of supply besides entrants from specific

training programs. Physicians, for example, must be

medical school graduates; the only other significant

source of new physicians is immigration. Elasticity is

further limited by the fact that workers do not easily

transfer to other occupations. Their skills may be so

specific that they are not transferable to other occupations, or workers may be reluctant to forfeit their

7 Attempts to quantify this choice are common in the 

literature on female labor force participation; see Juanita Kreps, 

Sex in the Market Place (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1971), 

chs. 4 and 5.

8 W may also represent discounted lifetime income, expected 

instead of actual wages, relative wages, or a number of other 

wage concepts.

9 See Cain, Hansen, and Weisbrod, “Classification of Occupations.”

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investment in costly and lengthy training by leaving the

occupation.

On the other hand, elasticity is likely to be rather

high in occupations where skills required are minimal or

can be readily obtained from a number o f different

sources. Workers can easily enter the occupation in

response to higher wages, and will find it easier to

transfer out o f the occupation than will workers with

very specialized skills. High elasticity indicates that the

market adjusts through the wage mechanism and, therefore, policy actions affecting supply are probably

unnecessary.

Elasticity is also affected by nonwage incentives and

barriers which affect the worker’s ability or willingness

to enter or leave an occupation. Entrants into training

programs, for example, consider not only the relative

earnings of the occupation for which they are being

trained, but also the direct costs o f training and the

indirect cost o f earnings foregone during the training

period. They also consider the “ cost” imposed by the

limited availability o f the desired training because of

inadequate facilities or barriers to entry such as union

rules or racial discrimination. A variety of similar types

o f barriers and incentives affect the behavior of workers

in nearly every component o f supply. These include

licensing rules or fees, seniority rights, advancement

opportunities, fringe benefits, training subsidies or loans,

lack o f information about alternative jobs, relocation

costs, as well as working conditions and occupational

prestige.

Policymakers need to know how nonwage barriers

and incentives affect supply, since many educational and

manpower policies are directed toward lessening or

increasing such factors. Career guidance information

such as that in the occupational outlook program of the

U.S. Department of Labor, 10 for example, increases

workers’ knowledge about job alternatives. Recent cutbacks in National Defense Student Loans to students in

teacher training decreased nonwage incentives by increasing the difficulty o f financing training, thereby

reducing the supply of new teachers. Elasticity analysis

can provide information on the impact of such policies

on supply, and therefore serve as a guide to formulating

and evaluating policies.

Two recent examples of applications o f functional

analysis are concerned with the health manpower field.

Since World War II there has been much concern about

shortages of health personnel, particularly nurses and

physicians in general practice. Christine Bishop has 10

10 See the Occupational Outlook Handbook, Occupational

Outlook Quarterly, and related publications of the Bureau of 

Labor Statistics.

examined the elasticity of the supply of nurses entering

from outside the labor force as a possible means of

increasing nursing supply in the short run.H Frank

Sloan has studied the influence of earnings on physicians’ choice of narrow specialization instead of general

practice and uses the results to evaluate suggested

income incentive policies to increase the supply of

general practitioners.I2

The Bishop study points out that because the reserves

of trained workers are generally small, manpower planners tend to concentrate on policies to make professional training opportunities more available and attractive to potential entrants. In occupations composed

largely of women, however, significant reserves of

workers do exist but have been largely ignored by

manpower policy.

Bishop explores the potential for short-run expansion

of the supply of nurses by constructing a functional

model that estimates the elasticity o f the labor force

participation rate of nurses with respect to salary, and

tests the model on a cross-section sample of married

nurses. The model includes factors influencing participation o f nurses such as alternative work, homemaking,

child-care responsibilities, husband’s income, and characteristics of labor demand. The results of testing the

model on a limited sample o f married nurses are

consistent with findings of other researchers. The supply

is shown to have a relatively low elasticity with respect

to salary, with a coefficient o f about 0.54. This finding

indicates that the effect of rising relative salaries on

supply should be considered in projecting future supply.

Sloan’s study uses a similar procedure but produces

dissimilar results. Sloan hypothesizes that the shortage

of physicians in general practice may be caused by better

income opportunities in specialized medicine attracting

physicians out o f general practice. The objectives o f the

study are to determine whether lifetime earnings influence physicians’ choice of field and, if so, to estimate

the elasticity o f supply with respect to income. The

evidence shows that income differentials do exist, but

they do not explain why medical school graduates enter

specialties instead o f general practice. Choices among

various specialties are only somewhat responsive to

income differences.

The policy implications of these results are o f

interest. The low elasticities of supply with respect to

income indicate that neither subsidies to practicing

physicians nor increases in stipends to residents in

11 Christine E. Bishop, “Manpower Policy and the Supply of 

Nurses,” Industrial Relations, February 1973, pp. 86-94.

12 Frank A. Sloan, “Lifetime Earnings and Physicians’ 

Choice of Specialty,” Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 

October 1970, pp. 47-56.

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“shortage” specialties would be useful policy instruments for attracting medical school graduates into these

fields.

IDENTIFYING SHORTAGES AND SURPLUSES

The terms “shortage” and “surplus” unfortunately

have taken on a variety o f meanings, as evidenced in the

debate over the supply o f scientists and engineers since

the mid-1950’s. Employers, workers, professional associations, educational and manpower planners, and other

observers discussed the situation using different, and

usually unstated, definitions o f a shortage. This debate

called attention to troublesome and sometimes serious

problems related to engineering and scientific manpower. However, because of lack o f understanding o f the

economic meaning of a shortage, the discussion often

obscured the analysis o f the problems, their causes, and

their solutions. Since this difficulty applies to other

occupations as well, a brief review of the concepts of

shortage and surplus may help clarify some key issues in

supply analysis. The review also illustrates the value of

functional analysis in defining and identifying supplydemand imbalances. 13

In traditional economic terms, a shortage occurs

when employers seek to hire more workers than are

willing to work at the given wage rate. Unless there is

some obstacle preventing adjustment of the wage level,

the shortage will be eliminated as wages rise and more

workers are attracted into the occupation. However, this

does not mean that a shortage will always disappear

automatically or that no difficulties will arise.

There are a number of factors that may cause

disequilibrium to persist. Wages may be inflexible due to

legal constraints or rigid internal wage structures. Adjustment may be slowed, and the shortage thus continued,

because workers and employers are unaware of wage

adjustments occurring elsewhere in the market, or

merely because a long period o f time is necessary for

getting new workers into training and then into the job

market. The supply may be highly inelastic, that is,

workers are reluctant to enter the occupation in spite of

increasing wages because o f low social status, poor

working conditions, or because the education and

The bulk of the following review, except where noted 

otherwise, is taken from A, A. Alchain, K. J. Arrow, and W. M. 

Capron, An Economic Analysis o f the Market for Scientists and

Engineers (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1958). Additional useful 

discussions may be foun4 in Hugh Folk, The Shortage o f

Scientists and Engineers (Lexington, Mass.; D. C. Heath and Co., 

1970); and W. Lee Hansen, “The Economics of Scientific and 

Engineering Manpower,” Journal o f Human Resources, Spring 

1967, pp. 191-220.

training are long, difficult, or expensive.

One interpretation of the shortage of scientists and

engineers that fits well into the economist’s view is the

adjustment process described by Arrow and Capron as a

“dynamic shortage.” ! 4 The dynamic shortage is the

failure of supply to “ catch up” to continually expanding

demand. When wages are already rising in response to

previous increases in demand, and when the level of

demand continues to rise, excess demand, or a shortage,

develops, thereby leading to further wage increases. The

shortage remains as long as demand continues to increase

at a faster rate than that which would allow supply to

catch up to current wage levels.

The dynamic shortage explanation is similar to the

“ in c o m p le te adjustm ent” model presented by

Freeman. 15 If supply is inelastic in the short run, an

expansion o f demand will cause relative wages to rise.

Higher wages lead to a modest increase in the number of

entrants and an ensuing modest reduction in relative

wages. As this pattern is repeated over time, relative

wages and supply approach equilibrium. Freeman’s

research shows that this model is a plausible explanation

for the continual shortage o f mathematicians from 1957

to 1966, in spite of rising relative salary levels.

In the same study, Freeman presents a cobweb model

that may be used to explain the recurring shortages and

surpluses of B.S. engineers. According to the cobweb

model, an increase in demand causes wages to rise,

attracting a large number o f workers into the occupation. Because workers enter in such large numbers, wages

subsequently fall, leading to a reduction in supply in the

next period. Wages and the number of entrants continue

to oscillate in smaller and smaller magnitudes until

equilibrium is reached several periods later.

Whether a market follows the cobweb adjustment or

the incomplete adjustment depends on the elasticity

characteristics o f supply and demand. The cobweb is

more likely if demand is inelastic, because the burden of

adjustment falls almost entirely on wages. The cobweb is

also likely if supply is elastic, because a change in wages

will produce a change in the supply large enough to

overshoot equilibrium. Incomplete adjustment is likely if

workers’ wage expectations are lower than actual wages,

because an increase in actual wages cannot attract

enough new entrants to reach equilibrium.

Arrow and Capron and Freeman present economic

14 Kenneth J. Arrow and W. M. Capron, “Dynamic Shortages and Price Rises: The Engineer-Scientist Case,” Quarterly

Journal o f Economics, May 1959, pp. 292-308.

15 Richard B. Freeman, The Market for College-Trained

Manpower, A Study in the Economics o f Career Choice,

(Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1971),pp. 22-27, andch. 

8.

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interpretations of shortages. Several other interpretations are common, however, and are confusing because

of their conflict with economic analysis. While such

statements may point out legitimate problems, they do

not point out shortages in the economic sense. The

distinction is important because the economist’s prescriptions for removing a shortage, such as removing

imperfections which prevent the wage rate from adjusting to its equilibrium level, may do nothing to meet the

pleas of those using shortage in another sense.

Another commonly discussed type o f “shortage” is

the projected demand shortfall.! 6 Shortages of workers

are projected by comparing independently derived projections o f “requirements” and supply for some target

year, assuming certain economic conditions. Various

types of manpower and educational policies are called

for to alleviate such shortages. Some policies are

designed to influence flows o f workers into certain

occupations, either by exhortation or by reducing the

costs of entry; others are aimed at reducing demand,

such as restructuring jobs or substituting machines and

other kinds of manpower for workers in shortage

occupations.

Projections unfortunately are made with little or no

consideration o f how well the wage mechanism operates

in the particular market, and rarely make explicit

assumptions about relative wages. They usually carry the

implicit notion that market adjustment processes are

defective or at least subject to extended lags.

Perhaps the most confusing use of the term “ shortage” is to describe situations where a significant increase

in demand and/or decrease in supply has resulted in a

major rise in wages. Then, even if there is no shortage in

the economist’s sense (i.e., even if the wages rise as much

as required to clear the market under the new supplydemand conditions), many employers who formerly

hired some of the workers in question and now find the

wage so high they no longer hire as many will describe

the situation as one o f “shortage.” Actually, this is

merely one way of saying that they cannot hire the

workers at the price they used to pay. However, the

economist would not describe this change as a shortage 16

16 Discussion from Hansen, “The Economics of Scientific 

and Engineering Manpower,” pp. 195-96. See also Folk, The

Shortage o f Scientists and Engineers; and Alchain, Arrow, and 

Capron,Aw Economic Analysis, pp. 67-68.

because there is no evidence that wages did not rise

sufficiently to eliminate excess demand.

Another use o f “shortage” is a normative one. Many

observers who have expressed concern that the supply of

engineers and scientists, or health workers, or technicians, is insufficient seem really to be saying that the

demand (and therefore the supply) should in their

judgment be higher than it is. They may say, for

example, that there is a “shortage” o f doctors because

an increase in the number of doctors is needed to

achieve some given standard. Or, in a case of rapidly

rising wages, the situation may be considered a shortage,

even though equilibrium exists, because wages are judged

by some noneconomic criteria to be “too high.”

Manpower discussion has recently turned from shortages to surpluses, but the confusion over the economic

meaning of such “imbalances” has not lessened. A

surplus is, of course, the opposite of a shortage. In

economic terms, a surplus occurs when more workers are

willing to work than employers are willing to hire at the

given wage rate. The surplus will be eliminated if wages

are allowed to fall to a new equilibrium level.

Many observers point to “ surpluses” that are in fact

not surpluses at all but situations where relative wages

are falling in response to an increase in supply or a

decrease in demand. Actions to prevent wages from

falling, usually by reducing supply or by increasing

demand, are often proposed as remedies to such “surpluses.” Such remedies may be beneficial. Reducing

supply in a given area or occupation by increasing

workers’ geographic or occupational mobility, for example, will certainly ease the labor market’s adjustment.

Some policies are designed to minimize the social costs

o f unemployment and other side effects o f a supplydemand readjustment. The important distinction to be

made is that these policies are not treating a surplus,

since the surplus is eliminated by allowing relative wages

to fall to a new equilibrium. The policies are instead

addressed to the social costs imposed by the fact of

falling relative wages: decreased income, unemployment,

immobility, and underutilization of skills.

Identifying supply-demand imbalances and designing

policies to treat imbalances and their side effects require

careful application o f functional analysis. Policymakers

must know how wage levels have changed in the past,

and how workers and employers have responded to these

changes, in order to understand the causes and remedies

for any imbalances that might arise.

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Chapter 3. Available Supply Data

The results o f supply analysis, even with a perfectly

specified model, can be only as complete and accurate as

the basic data used. Because the level o f accuracy and

detail for information required varies from one program

or policy to another, there is no one minimum standard

quality of data applicable to all situations. The major

consideration in setting quality standards is the ultimate

use of the results. Supply information for vocational

guidance purposes, on the one hand, should provide

general information about the future supply of workers.

Manpower planners, on the other hand, need highly

accurate and detailed information on supply in order to

design effective programs and policies.

Another consideration in setting quality criteria is the

type of occupation being analyzed. The consequences of

error are likely to be greater in occupations with

inflexible supply structures. If there are only a few

sources of entrants, a significant error in estimating

supply of these entrants may actually induce supplydemand imbalances when carried through in designing

and implementing an effective policy. For example, if

the future supply o f physicians from immigration is

greatly overestimated, the expansion o f medical schools

and therefore the increasing supply of new doctors may

be insufficient to meet future demand for medical care.

The level of detail required in supply data is

determined by the specification of the model and the

final use of the results. The need for greater detail

requires data with greater accuracy. Accuracy and detail,

however, are not often found together in most data.

Unless the data are based on an extremely large sample,

estimates for detailed items usually have unacceptably

large errors.

This chapter discusses the national supply data

available for use in the structural and functional models,

including current supply data, information on entries

from training programs and other sources, information

on all types of separations, and wage data. The type and

frequency of data collection, coverage, level of accuracy,

and the limitations o f most data sources are discussed.

Studies o f issues in manpower analysis and studies of

specific occupations are also included.

Specific publications containing the data discussed in

this chapter are generally omitted from the text but are

listed in the bibliography starting on page 30. Items

including State or other subnational data are so designated in the bibliography. The numbers in parentheses

following each discussion refer to the specific publications in the bibliography.

CURRENT SUPPLY

Current supply data include information on employment and unemployment by occupation, and also

supplementary data on personal, economic, and demographic characteristics o f workers. Most current supply

data are collected through surveys o f establishments,

households, and individuals, or are compiled from

administrative and membership records of organizations

with a special interest in the occupation, such as

professional associations and regulatory agencies.

The concepts used to obtain counts o f people in

various occupations differ from source to source. The

Current Population Survey (CPS), for example, is a

survey of a sample o f households representing the entire

population. Employment estimates include persons 16

years of age and older who are currently employed

within the United States and who are not members of

the Armed Forces. Employed persons holding more than

one job are counted only once and are classified

according to the job at which they worked the greatest

number of hours.

Surveys of establishments, such as the occupational

employment survey program of the Department of

Labor, generally have less complete coverage of the labor

force than household surveys. Firms with fewer than a

minimum number o f workers, or those outside metropolitan areas o f a given size, may be excluded from the

sample. Also, the survey may be confined to a single

industry. Establishment data represent the number of

jobs, not the number o f workers, since persons holding

more than one job are counted more than once.

Data from professional associations, regulatory

agencies, and similar organizations generally provide

only partial coverage, because their purpose is to present

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membership counts or counts of licensed persons in

particular occupations, whether or not they are currently employed. Therefore, it may be necessary to

adjust the data to include workers who are not members

of the association, who are not licensed, or who fail to

meet some other criteria. Adjustments may also be

needed to exclude retired persons, those working

abroad, members o f the Armed Forces, and other

groups. For example, to make the data for physicians

from the American Medical Association comparable to

data for other occupations surveyed by the Bureau of

Labor Statistics, the data must be adjusted to exclude

members o f the Armed Forces and physicians practicing

outside the United States. In addition, physicians who

are teaching full time and those who are engaged in

research must be subtracted from the total count of

physicians.

In most occupational data, individuals are classified

according to the jobs at which they are working, rather

than the crafts, disciplines, or specialties for which they

consider themselves best trained. Thus, a person trained

as a teacher but working as a salesman should be

counted as a salesworker rather than as a teacher, and

would be reported as such by his employer. However, if

one were to ask the individual, he might say he was a

teacher. This discrepancy partially accounts for the

difficulty in reconciling data from surveys of selfreporting individuals with data from employers.

Census of Population and Current Population Survey

The Census of Population provides the most comprehensive and detailed data available on current supply.

Data include employment and unemployment for 445

detailed occupations by color, sex, industry, class of

worker, earnings, and a variety of other characteristics.

Data are also available by State, region, and Standard

Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA), but not in as

much detail as for national data. Special tabulations are

available at cost from the Bureau of the Census. (1-3)

Although census data present a wealth o f detail, their

usefulness is limited because o f lack o f timeliness: data

are collected at 10-year intervals and are about 3 years

old by time of publication. Use o f census data for

long-run trend analysis is further complicated by changes

in occupational classification from one census to

another. 17

The Current Population Survey (C PS)l8 is the only

source of frequent data on employment by occupation.

Estimates of employment for nine major occupational

groups are published monthly by the Bureau of Labor

Statistics. Annual averages of employment and unemployment in considerable occupational detail have been

tabulated since 1962, and have been published beginning

with 1972. Unemployment estimates for individual

occupations and total employment estimates for the

smaller occupations (under 100,000 workers) are

unreliable, especially when used to construct trends,

primarily because o f the small sample size for disaggregated data. (4)

Occupational employment statistics program

The occupational employment statistics (OES) survey

program of the Department of Labor is designed for use

in developing occupational employment estimates by

industry, which may be used for producing a time series

of estimates of total employment by occupation through

the industry-occupation matrix discussed below. The

program is currently conducted by State employment

security agencies in about 25 cooperating States and the

District of Columbia. Surveys are conducted by the

States, with comprehensive and detailed technical guidance by the BLS. Resulting data will be for States and

some substate areas, although earlier surveys produced

national data. Further details on the OES program,

including the States and industries covered, are available

from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Occupational

Employment Statistics, 1960-70, Bulletin 1738, 1972,

and from the Bureau’s Division o f Manpower and

Occupational Outlook. (5, 6)

Surveys of scientific and technical personnel

From the mid-1950’s to 1970, BLS conducted

periodic surveys o f scientific and technical manpower.

The estimates for scientists, engineers, and technicians

covered by these surveys include only wage and salary

employees in most of private industry. The National

Science Foundation also collects employment data for

these workers in colleges and universities and in nonprofit organizations. The 1970 BLS survey covered a

universe of about 27 million workers from which a

17 For elaboration of this problem, see John A. Priebe, Jean 

Heinkel, and Stanley Greene, 1970 Occupational and Industry

Classification Systems in Terms o f Their 1960 Occupation and

Industry Elements, Technical Paper 26 (Bureau of the Census, 

July 1972).

18 For elaboration on the CPS, see Concepts and Methods

Used in Manpower Statistics from the Current Population

Survey, Report 313 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 1967), and 

The Current Population Survey-A Report on Methodology,

Technical Paper No. 7 (Bureau of the Census, 1963).

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sample representing about 16,000 establishments was

drawn. These surveys provide the most reliable occupational data available on scientific personnel in private

industry. (7, 8)

The collection of data for scientists, engineers, and

technicians was part of a program to provide occupational statistics on the Nation’s scientific and technical

manpower in higher education, private industry, and the

Federal Government. However, since 1971, the collection of occupational data for scientists, engineers, and

technicians in private industry has been included in the

occupational employment statistics program o f the

Department of Labor.

Employment of scientific, professional, and technical

personnel by State governments in January 1964 and

1967 was obtained from sample surveys conducted by

the BLS. State data are for the 50 States and exclude

State educational institutions. Similar surveys of State

government employment were made for 1959 and 1962,

but they are not comparable in all their detail with the

later surveys. (7, 8)

Industry-occupation matrix

An industry-occupation matrix provides a comprehensive set of data on industry-occupational relationships that can be used in projecting manpower requirements by occupation. A matrix shows the occupational

pattern o f each industry, i.e., the ratio of each occupation to total employment in an industry. Looked at

another way, the matrix shows how total employment in

an occupation is distributed by industry.

Although detailed occupational employment data are

available only from the decennial census, total employment estimates for detailed industries are available on at

least an annual basis. Because each industry utilizes a

unique combination of occupational skills, information

on employment trends in individual industries can be

used together with available data on changing occupational employment patterns by industry to estimate

employment by occupation for later periods. If projections o f employment by industry are available, the base

period occupational ratios, or projected ratios if possible, can be applied to the industry employment

projections to yield projections o f occupational employment requirements by industry. These estimates may

then be summed for all industries to yield national

estimates.

The matrix approach is not without its limitations.

The most difficult problem is the incorporation of

changes in skill inputs, reflected by occupational coefficients in the matrix, resulting from changes in output

levels, technology, and prices o f both labor and capital

inputs. 19 if the occupational coefficients are sensitive to

such changes, and if various skill inputs are substitutable,

projected matrices should take into account changing

supply and price conditions for these occupations.

However, adjustments of coefficients are currently based

on extrapolation of past trends and judgments derived

from qualitative knowledge of the particular industry or

occupation. (9-11)

BLS has developed a comprehensive set of data on

the occupational employment composition of all major

industry sectors. Publications include data for 1960,

1967, 1970, 1975, and 1980, set up to form a matrix of

162 specific occupations plus groupings o f occupations

cross-classified with 116 industries. Revised 1970 and

1980 matrices including approximately 400 occupations

and 200 industries are currently being prepared.

Data for the industry-occupational matrices are

brought together from a wide variety of sources,

including the decennial census, the CPS, surveys by BLS

and other agencies, and data reported by regulatory

agencies. Projected matrices are consistent with trends in

production and nonproduction worker employment by

industry, and anticipated trends in occupational structure within industries.

BLS is currently developing industry-occupation

matrices for the 50 States and the District of Columbia,

and one for the New York-Northern New Jersey

consolidated area. The matrices will be consistent with

the national matrix in format, coding structure, and

employment concepts, and will be based primarily on

1970 census data. Work is also proceeding on a matrix

system for SMSA’s o f 250,000 persons or more. These

State and SMSA matrices will be completed during

1974. The matrices will eventually incorporate data

from the occupational employment surveys.

Bureau of Labor Statistics wage surveys

BLS conducts a variety of establishment surveys to

collect occupational wage data. Many o f these surveys

provide reliable occupational employment data as well,

although they may be restricted in industry and establishment-size coverage.

Industry wage surveys provide employment data for

50 manufacturing and 20 nonmanufacturing industries.

Most are surveyed every 5 years, but a number of

low-wage industries are on a 3-year cycle. (12)

19 See R. C. Hollister, “The Economics of Manpower 

Forecasting,” International Labour Review, April 1964, pp. 

371-97.

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Area wage surveys provide annual employment estimates for about 80 occupations, by sex, in six industry

divisions. The surveys cover establishments with 50

workers or more (100 or more in some industries) in

about 90 metropolitan areas. (13)

U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare

The Office o f Education, National Center for Education Statistics, publishes annual employment estimates

and 10-year projections o f requirements for elementary,

secondary, and college teachers, and librarians. The

teacher estimates for public schools are provided by the

State departments of education, and those for nonpublic

schools are provided by individual schools. The estimates

for librarians include all full-time librarians and full-time

equivalent estimates for those working part time. Special

librarians—who work in libraries maintained by commercial and industrial firm s-and public librarians in

cities of 25,000 or more population are included in the

estimates. (14, 15)

The Public Health Service, National Center for Health

Statistics, publishes a variety o f data on health manpower, including two series o f Vital Health Statistics

bulletins (17, 18) and an annual report, Health Resources Statistics, which summarizes the most important

data series. (16) The Public Health Service is also

conducting Project SOAR, a comprehensive analysis of

health manpower supply, output, and requirements by

the Division of Manpower Intelligence, Bureau of Health

Manpower, National Institutes of Health. (19)

Other Federal agencies

The Federal regulatory agencies such as the Interstate

Commerce Commission (ICC), Federal Aviation Agency

(FAA), and Federal Communications Commission (FCC)

provide a rich source of annual occupational employment statistics for regulated industries. Data are generally

derived from mandatory company reports filed with the

agencies.

Annual information on over 200 occupations and

occupational groups is on file with the regulatory

agencies. However, some of the broader occupational

classifications on file are not consistent with generally

accepted occupational classifications from the Bureau of

the Census. Nevertheless, the employment trends indicated in the broad occupational categories provide

helpful information in discerning changes in employment in occupations within the broad categories.

The occupational estimates derived from the government regulatory agencies include many different occupational concepts. For example, estimates from the FAA

are full-time equivalents, but those from the ICC are an

annual average based on the number of employees on

the payroll at midmonth for 12 months.

The Interstate Commerce Commission publishes

occupational employment data for railroads, the Pullman Company, the Railway Express Agency, electric

railways, water carriers, and oil pipelines engaged in

interstate transportation. (22, 23)

Occupational employment data for scheduled airlines

are compiled primarily from company reports filed with

the Civil Aeronautics Board. These data are published

annually by the Federal Aviation Administration and the

Air Transport Association o f America. (20, 26)

Occupational employment information in the telephone industry is available from annual reports of the

Federal Communications Commission and the U.S.

Independent Telephone Association. The U.S. Department of Labor publishes an annual wage survey in the

communication industry containing data compiled from

annual reports filed with the FCC by Bell System

telephone carriers having annual revenues that exceed $ 1

million. Before 1965, the annual revenue test was

$250,000. Annual occupational employment data for

the independent telephone segment of the telephone

industry are published by the U.S. Independent Telephone Association. The combination o f the two reports

covers all employment in the telephone industry, except

for officials and managerial assistants employed by the

Bell System. (2 1 ,2 5 , 27)

Occupational employment data for the telegraph

industry are published annually in the BLS industry

wage survey of the communications industry. The data

are compiled from annual reports filed with the FCC by

all companies in the telegraph industry having annual

revenues that exceed $50,000. Data for the six international telegraph carriers include carriers engaged in

nonvocal international telegraph communications by

radio or by ocean cable. Although many of the

occupational groups are in general use by radio, telegraph, or ocean cable carriers, a few are exclusive to one

carrier group. For example, radio operators are employed only by radio telegraph carriers, and cable

operators only by ocean cable carriers. (25)

The U.S. Civil Service Commission (CSC) compiles

data on Federal Government employment (excluding the

Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security

Agency). Data on white-collar employees cover over 450

occupational series for each of 25 agencies, including

one catchall category. Data on blue-collar workers

include nearly 1,500 separate occupations combined

into 36 specific job families and a “ miscellaneous

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Hshed CSC sources can be used to construct employment

trends starting in 1958 for about 400 occupations. (24)

The CSC’s occupational classification system generally is not directly comparable with that of the census

because of the finer occupational detail and more

functional framework found in the CSC system. However, occupations in the CSC system are classifiable into

the census system through the Classified Index o f

Industries and Occupations.

State employment security agencies

The job order, applicant, and placement activities of

the employment security offices of the several States are

a valuable source of information on occupational supply.

Although the available occupational detail and frequency of reporting on these activities may vary from

one State to another, the agencies do provide a generally

uniform input in the Employment Service Automated

Reporting System (ESARS). It should be noted

that data based on the activities of local employment security offices do not measure total manpower

needs or job applicants available in any particular labor

market. Nevertheless, the data are useful and represent

an important part of occupational supply, i.e., that

proportion registered with the agencies.

Table 12 of ESARS provides quarterly data on job

applicants and nonagricultural job openings by detailed

occupation for the Nation, all States, the District of

Columbia, and 125 Standard Metropolitan Statistical

Areas. The occupational detail follows the first three

digits of the Dictionary o f Occupational Titles (D.O.T.).

Approximately 150 occupations are also defined by the

six-digit D.O.T. codes, and another 55 are defined by the

full nine-digit codes.

Data in table 12 are reported according to the

cumulative count of total job applicants as of the final

day in the quarter. A separate count is also provided for

applicants who are female, veterans, under 22 years of

age, 45 years of age and over, minorities, and poor.

Data on nonagricultural job openings also are presented in table 12 according to the cumulative total

received since the start of the fiscal year. The cumulative

count of mandatory job listings is also reported, along

with the cumulative count of openings which have been

filled. Separate counts of unfilled job openings, covering

both short- and long-term (30 days or more) openings

are also provided as of the final day in the quarter. These

latter data, particularly for the long-term, reflect unmet

demand or inadequate supply at offered wages or

salaries. If this is due to the unavailability of qualified

job applicants rather than unsatisfactory working or

wage conditions, it can indicate the need for job

training.

ESARS data on job applicants and openings have

been available since January 1972. In constructing a

time series, however, there are some difficulties involved

because table formats, occupational detail, and other

items have changed over the 3-year operation of ESARS.

Professional associations

Dentists. Employment information for dentists is published biennially (annually before 1969) by the

American Dental Association (ADA). These estimates

include all practicing dentists whether or not they are

members of ADA. Data on nonmembers are collected

through the State licensing boards. (29)

Nurses. Employment information concerning nurses is

published annually by the American Nurses Association.

Nursing estimates are developed from licensure records

by the ANA in cooperation with State boards of nursing.

(34)

Optometrists. The American Optometry Association

periodically publishes reports that contain estimates of

current manpower as well as future manpower needs.

This information is based on licensure and registration

data from each of the 50 States and the District of

Columbia. The estimates for 1965 through 1970 include

only those optometrists who are actively practicing their

profession. (35)

Osteopaths. Employment estimates for osteopaths are

available from the annual report o f the American

Osteopathic Association. Estimates exclude retirees and

those for whom status was not reported. (36)

Pharmacists. Employment data before 1967 are published by the National Association of Boards of

Pharmacy in the NABP Bulletin Since 1967, employment data for pharmacists are published by the NABP in

Licensure Statistics and Census o f Pharmacy. The data

from both sources represent a count of registered

pharmacists in practice obtained from NABP census and

licensing data. (43, 44)

Physicians. Since 1963, employment estimates for

physicians by specialty, major professional activity, and

geographic area have been available in Distribution of

Physicians in the U.S., published by the Department of

Survey Research, American Medical Association. (30-33)

Podiatrists. Employment estimates for podiatrists are

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developed from State licensure records by the American

Podiatry Association. In 1970 the U.S. Department of

Health, Education, and Welfare surveyed a sample of

podiatrists from State licensure records to determine

how many were practicing. (37, 17)

Veterinarians. Dimensions o f Veterinary Medicine and

the various editions o f the A VMA Directory, a biennial

publication, give employment data for licensed

veterinarians. Both o f these reports are published by the

American Veterinary Medicine Association (AVMA),

and exclude military personnel and those who are

retired. (38, 39)

Architects. Unpublished data on employment of architects are available from the Architectural Institute of

America and the National Council of Architectural

Registration. Data include only single registrants from

their base State of original licensing and may include

some retired architects.

Chemists. Data on employment status and characteristics

o f chemists are available from membership surveys by

the American Chemical Society. (28)

Engineers. The Engineers Joint Council has conducted

surveys of engineering society members to obtain information on employment status, highest degree attained,

age, and other characteristics. (40-42)

OCCUPATIONAL TRAINING DATA

Occupational training encompasses all types of learning processes, from simply “picking up” a skill to

graduate-level training. Existing data cover only a

portion o f all occupational training, limited primarily to

formal training conducted by institutions such as colleges and technical schools, or sponsored by unions,

government agencies, and similar organizations.

Colleges and universities

More data are available on workers who attend

college than on workers trained by other methods. The

primary source of data is the National Center for

Educational Statistics of the Office of Education (OE).

Annual reports include enrollments, degrees conferred,

and projections.

Opening fall enrollment data include aggregate information on all students by sex, attendance status, level of

enrollment, and type of program; and on institutions by

State, level, and by public and private control. Data on

enrollments in graduate education are also available,

including detail by field of specialization, level of study,

sex, State, institutional level and control, aqd by

individual institution. (48, 50, 51)

Enrollments also are estimated by the Bureau of the

Census in the decennial census and the Current Population Survey (CPS). These data include information on

demographic, social, and economic characteristics of

persons enrolled and not enrolled. Although census and

CPS data are generally comparable with OE figures,

there are some differences resulting from differing 

collection dates and methods, and definitions of

terms.20

Office o f Education data on earned degrees include 

the number of bachelor’s and higher degrees conferred in

each academic field by each institution; and aggregate

data on the number of degrees by level of degree, field

of specialization, sex o f recipient, State, and control and

level of institution. (49) Projections information includes estimates for enrollments, graduates, faculty, and

expenditures. Detailed methodological descriptions are

available as well. (52)

Data on doctoral degrees are also collected by the

National Academy of Sciences, which publishes the

number of research doctorate recipients by field, subfield, and institution. These data differ from OE data in

that they are counts of individuals, not degrees conferred, they exclude performance doctorates not requiring a research dissertation, and classification by field and

subfield are different. Also, data are by fiscal year

instead of academic year. Reports include a statistical

profile of doctorate recipients, including information on

personal characteristics, post-doctoral employment or

study, and sources of financial support for graduate

study. (45, 46)

The Office of Education also collects data on specific

types of programs, such as health occupations education

programs, and a variety of supplementary information.

Additional data and research on aspects o f higher

education are available from the American Council on

Education, the National Academy of Sciences, the

National Science Foundation, and similar organizations.

(47, 53)

20 See Charles E. Johnson, Jr., and Larry E. Suter, “Measuring School and College Enrollments: A Comparison of Census 

Bureau and Office of Education Data,” American Statistical 

Association, Proceedings o f the Social Statistics Section, 1972, 

pp. 306-11.

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Junior colleges (community colleges)

Junior colleges serve a variety of educational needs.

For some students they provide the first 2 years of

academic training leading to a bachelor’s degree; such

students transfer to a 4-year college for the last 2 years

o f undergraduate work. Junior colleges provide adult

education not necessarily oriented to completion of a

formal college education or to vocational preparation.

Junior colleges also provide “terminal occupational

education” through programs designed to prepare

students for entry into specific occupations immediately

upon graduation. These programs vary from 6 months to

3 years, but most are for 2 academic years. Types of

career education include science and engineering technologies, public services, emphasizing transportation

planning and social service-aide occupations; business

and commercial fields, especially food service and

distribution; allied health and medical fields; and many

other types of training such as data processing and

graphic arts.

Data on associate degrees and on completions of

occupational curriculums below the baccalaureate level

are collected annually in the Higher Education General

Information Survey (HEGIS) o f the Office of Education.

The survey includes extensive summary data as well as

data on individual institutions for (1) associate degrees

meeting bachelor’s-degree-credit criteria, (2) awards in

organized occupational curriculums for work at the

technical or semiprofessional level, and (3) awards in

organized occupational curriculums for work below the

technical or professional level. Data are reported by type

and length of curriculum, State or area, and sex of

recipient. (54)

Federal manpower programs

A variety of manpower programs train workers for

employment in hundreds o f occupations. The Manpower

Development and Training Act (MDTA) of 1962, succeeded by the Comprehensive Employment and Training

Act (CETA) of 1973 enacted the largest group of

Federal manpower programs. The MDTA was passed

primarily to retrain workers whose skills were obsolete;

however, that portion of the program initially devoted

to youth was expanded, and major emphasis was placed

on training the disadvantaged. Additional manpower

programs include Job Opportunities in the Business

Sector (JOBS), Work Incentive Program (WIN), Public

Service Careers, Neighborhood Youth Corps, and others.

Two basic types of training were authorized under

the MDTA: institutional instruction (classroom), and,

until fiscal year 1970, on-the-job training (OJT). Most

training has been through institutional programs conducted primarily in public vocational schools. MDTA

programs were sponsored jointly by the Department of

Health, Education, and Welfare and the Department of

Labor. Under OJT, training was provided at the jobsite

by an employer under contract with the Department of

Labor. Private businesses, trade associations, labor

unions, and public agencies sponsored such programs.

General information on the policies and development

o f these programs, as well as summary data on enrollments, is available in the annual Manpower Report o f

the President. Detailed data, when available, are compiled by the agencies responsible for the programs. Much

of the data are compiled for administrative purposes and

are therefore unpublished, and may not be in a format

suitable for supply analysis. (55, 56)

The Comprehensive Employment and Training Act of

1973 provides a new charter for Federal manpower

programs. This legislation decentralizes and decategorizes many programs initially authorized by MDTA and

by Title I o f the Economic Opportunity Act of 1964,

including institutional and on-the-job training, Public

Employment Programs, and Job Corps. Beginning with

fiscal year 1975, programs will be planned and administered by State and local prime sponsors, with funding

and technical support from the U.S. Department of

Labor. Information on participants in CETA programs

will be compiled by the States.

Vocational education

Vocational education includes secondary and postsecondary vocational and technical programs funded

under the Vocational Education Act o f 1963. Vocational education generally prepares students for a

specific occupation, although many programs prepare

students for employment in several related occupations.

Published data include enrollments by State in

programs by educational field (e.g., agriculture, health)

by fiscal year, and are available from the Office: of

Education. Unpublished data on enrollments and completions by specific occupational program are compiled

by the Bureau of Adult, Vocational and Technical

Education, Office of Education. (57-61)

Apprenticeship programs

Apprenticeship training combines theory and on-thejob instruction to prepare journeymen in skilled crafts.

The Department of Labor registers but does not finance

such programs, and it provides technical assistance to

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employers and unions in establishing programs. Most of

the registered apprentices are in one of three trade areas:

construction, metalworking, and printing.

A list of apprentice able occupations included in

apprenticeship programs registered with State agencies

or the Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training o f the

Department of Labor is available in The National

Apprenticeship Program, Manpower Administration,

1972. Published data on apprenticeship include the total

number of individuals in training and the number of new

registrations, cancellations, and completions during the

year. (62)

In addition to federally registered programs, there are

many high quality apprenticeship programs whose sponsors have chosen not to register. No information is

available, however, on the number of such programs or

the number of apprentices involved.

Employer training (except apprenticeship)

In most instances, training is informal and takes place

mainly in the work environment. Most workers “just

pick up” their current skills informally on the job. Many

firms, especially larger ones, have formal on-the-job

training, often in conjunction with classroom work.

While the numbers trained in such programs may be

small, they are likely to be significant in certain

industries and occupations.

Statistics on completion o f employer training are not

currently available. However, BLS, with the support of

the Manpower Administration, recently conducted a

pilot survey of occupational training in industry to study

the feasibility of collecting data on enrollments and

completions, and to determine the best method of

collecting the data. Proposals to conduct comprehensive

data collection for training in the metalworking industries are currently being reviewed. (63-65, 67-70) An

additional feasibility study was conducted for the

Manpower Administration at the University of

Wisconsin. (66)

Armed Forces

The Armed Forces offer training in electronics,

aircraft maintenance, metalworking, and other skills to

help young men obtain civilian jobs upon separation.

Military personnel also may enroll in voluntary off-duty

academic and technical programs. Approximately 200

such correspondence courses range from elementary

school through the second year o f college.

Project Transition, an Armed Forces-wide training

program, prepares men who have between 1 and 6

months left in the service for employment in civilian life.

In operation since 1969, Project Transition is a joint

effort o f private industry and the government providing

training for many skills. Participants volunteer and may

take only courses offered at the bases where they are

stationed. When openings are limited, preference is given

to those who have combat disabilities and then to those

who have no civilian skills. Although some statistics are

available, data on the number trained and entering

civilian jobs are not available. (71-73)

Private vocational schools

Private vocational schools prepare students for employment in many areas, but the three main types of

schools are business, trade and technical, and cosmetology and barber schools. Schools vary in size from 10 to

over 1,200 students; the length o f courses and types o f

programs offered also vary. Some schools have many

courses leading to certificates in several different occupations. Business schools, for example, may offer refresher

courses in shorthand, a full program in beginning

secretarial work, and the fundamentals o f accounting.

The major areas in which private vocational schools offer

training are automobile maintenance, data processing,

drafting, electronics, medical services, and radiotelevision. In addition, business schools teach all types o f

clerical work-typing, shorthand, filing—as well as

accounting, data processing, and related fields.

The number o f graduates of private vocational

schools is not presently available. The only potential

source o f data is the “Survey o f Programs and Enrollments in Post-Secondary Schools” currently in process

by the Office o f Education’s National Center for

Educational Statistics. This survey will collect enrollments and completions data by type o f curriculum from

a large sample of post-secondary vocational schools. (74,

75)

FOLLOWUP DATA

Data on occupational training are most useful when

accompanied by followup information, because not all

graduates o f a training program actually enter the

occupation. Followup data consist o f occupational entry

rates for individuals who have completed or dropped out

of various kinds o f training programs.

Followup data are more important for analyzing

some occupations than for others, depending on the

extent o f the training and various characteristics o f the

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individuals involved. Entry rates o f M.D. recipients into

the medical profession, for example, may be assumed to

be near 100 percent since very few individuals would fail

to utilize years o f intensive training. For occupations

where training is less rigorous, however, only a fraction

o f graduates may enter the occupation. In addition,

entry rates are likely to be significantly different for

men and women.

Followup data are available from a wide variety of

sources. However, very few sources encompass the

Nation as a whole and even fewer are available on a

recurring basis. The main producers o f followup information are State or area education and manpower

agencies, individual schools, and private organizations

such as the College Placement Council and the Bureau of

Social Science Research.

The most comprehensive source o f followup data on

college students is the American Council on Education

surveys o f college freshmen o f 1961 and 1966. The 1961

cohort originally included over 127,000 freshmen surveyed at college entry, o f whom a sample were resurveyed in 1966 and 1971. The 1966 cohort included

254,000 freshmen surveyed at college entry, o f whom a

sample o f 60,000 were resurveyed in 1971. The surveys

asked questions on high school and college education,

including major o f bachelor’s and higher degrees

received, current employment and occupational status,

work activity, type o f employer, and other items. These

longitudinal data allow analysis o f occupational entries

and career development over the decade following

college entry. Numerous studies based on the ACE

surveys are listed in the bibliography. (78-83, 9 0 ,9 5 )

Additional followup studies o f college students and

graduates are available from surveys conducted by

college placement offices, professional societies, and

other organizations. For the most part these data are

fragmentary in their coverage, limited to graduates from

a single institution or field. (76, 77, 86, 91-94, 96-102,

108, 109, 115, 117-125) However, a few are national in

scope. (84, 87-89, 103-107, 110-114,116)

Followup information on vocational education is

available in the annual Summary Data for Vocational

Education by the Bureau o f Adult, Vocational and

Technical Education, U.S. Office o f Education (OE).

This report lists completions and job placements in

related fields by type o f program. Unpublished data in

greater detail are available from OE. A large number of

followup studies for States, areas, and individual programs are also available; a sampling o f these are listed in

the bibliography. (126-133)

Followup data for Federal manpower programs including MDTA, JOBS, WIN, and others are compiled by

the Manpower Administration and published in summary form in the annual Manpower Report o f the

President. Unpublished data are also available from MA.

As with vocational education, a variety of studies for

States, areas, and programs are also available. Several of

these are listed in the bibliography; a more comprehensive list is available in Manpower Research and Development Projects, published annually by MA. (134-139)

Some followup data are also available for veterans, high

school students, and other groups. (85,140-153)

OCCUPATIONAL TRANSFERS

The measurement o f occupational transfers requires

longitudinal data that allow comparison of the occupational status o f a given population for at least two points

in time. Longitudinal data are generally from either

multiphase surveys which trace the occupational histories o f a given population, or single-time surveys in

which respondents report their current and previous

occupations. The multiphase approach has the advantage

o f avoiding errors in recall, and allows analysis of

characteristics which change over time and cannot be

objectively measured by recall, such as workers’ skill

level. The major disadvantage of multiphase surveys

which is not true o f single-time surveys is attrition of the

sample between phases. Attrition is largely the result of

failure to locate all individuals in the original sample.

This introduces a bias in the data, because the mobility

characteristics o f nonrespondents are likely to be different from those o f persons remaining in the sample.

Occupational transfers may be expressed as gross

rates, i.e., the total proportion of workers who transfer

into the occupation or the total proportion who transfer

out. Gross rates can be broken down according to

occupation. The gross rate o f transfer into engineering,

for example, would include all persons entering engineering; this rate can be broken down to show rates o f entry

from technician occupations, from college faculties, and

so forth. Transfers may also be expressed as a net rate,

i.e., total transfers into the occupation minus total

transfers out o f the occupation. The type o f calculation

usually depends on the kind of data available.

Existing data sources are generally inadequate for

estimating transfers (mobility) among detailed occupations. Computation o f reliable mobility rates for detailed

occupations covering the whole labor force requires data

from a very large sample. Most sources allow computation o f rates for major occupational groups only; the

major exception is the 1970 census, discussed in detail

below.

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The earliest economic studies o f occupational mobility relied on methodologies that treated nonlongitudinal

data as if they were longitudinal. Jaffe and Carleton2 *

used cohort analysis to trace the changing occupational

distribution of age groups from one census to another,

and estimated net occupational mobility between major

occupational groups by calculating other components of

change (new entries, deaths, and retirements) and

treating mobility as a residual. A similar procedure was

used by Aronson to estimate mobility for several

detailed occupations for 1950-60. 22

The Jaffe-Carleton study was a major contribution to

the mobility literature. The methodology provides longterm net mobility information which primarily reflects

the changing age and occupational structure o f the labor

force. The results must be interpreted with caution

because, as the study itself points out, mobility is

measured indirectly, as a residual after accounting for

the other components o f occupational change, and the

study does not examine economic and other factors

influencing mobility. Also, models were developed only

for males and do not incorporate labor force withdrawal

and reentry patterns typical of women workers. However, the study does provide a methodological framework which can be utilized in making long-range

occupational projections which include net mobility.

Until fairly recently, most studies that attempted

direct measurement o f mobility concentrated on specific

geographic areas and occupational groups, or on mobility between major occupational groups. The 1954 “six

city study,” for example, analyzed work histories for a

sample o f over 13,000 workers in six metropolitan

areas.23 At about the same time the Bureau o f Labor

Statistics studied the occupational mobility of a sample

o f Ph.D. scientists drawn from the 1948 register,

American Men of Science.2 4 While many similar studies

exist, most are nonrecurring and several are out of date.

(159-161, 177-186)

One fairly comprehensive data source for college

trained workers is the 1962 Postcensal Survey of

Professional and Technical Manpower. This project

surveyed a large sample o f persons recorded in the 1960

census 25-percent sample as college graduates or as last

employed in scientific and technical occupations. The

2lA. J. Jaffe and R. O. Carleton, Occupational Mobility in

the United States, 1930-60 (New York: King’s Crown Press, 

Columbia University, 1954).

22Robert L. Aronson, Components o f Occupational Change

in the United States, 1950-60, Technical Monograph Series No. 1 

(Cornell University, New York State School of Industrial and 

Labor Relations, October 1969).

23Gladys Palmer, Labor Mobility in Six Cities (New York: 

Social Science Research Council, 1954).

goal o f the study was to determine the relationship

between training and subsequent occupations, but the

data are also suitable for tracing occupational transfers

o f persons employed in 1960. (162-171) A similar

survey was conducted in 1972 for the 1970 census and

the data are currently being analyzed by the National

Science Foundation. The first o f a series o f reports,

“Persons in Engineering, Scientific, and Technical Occupations: 1970 and 1972,” showing preliminary data, was

issued in July 1973. (169)

The Current Population Survey is often discussed as a

potential source o f occupational mobility data, and has

been used as such. The January 1966 CPS collected

information on labor force status and occupation in

January 1965 o f all persons employed during the survey

month. The published results show mobility rates for

major occupational groups and a few detailed occupations, by sex and color o f worker. Unpublished tabulations can be used to compute rates for detailed

occupations. However, the data must be used with great

care because the CPS sample is not large enough to

provide rates for detailed occupations with the desired

reliability. (154-156, 158)

A promising source o f occupational mobility data is

the 5-percent sample of the 1970 census, which provides

information on occupations in 1970 and occupations in

I 1965. Data are published only for 10 major occupation

groups for the Nation and States. However, unpublished

tabulations for detailed occupations obtained by the

Bureau o f Labor Statistics are currently being analyzed.

The results o f this study will be made public when

available. These data are compiled from the three

1-percent Public Use Sample Files, and include 3.7

million individuals or 60 percent o f the respondents in

the 5-percent census sample. (157)

The new census data will result in occupational

mobility rates suitable for supply analysis in the models

presented earlier in this report. The data, however, are

subject to the usual problems o f the census. The rates

are already 3 years old at the time o f publication, and

represent transfers that occurred as long ago as 1965.

Furthermore, no similar data will be available until the

1980 census. The data are subject to another disadvantage o f longitudinal information collected in a single

survey: inaccuracies are inevitable when 1965 occupational information is based totally on the respondent’s

memory.

Another potentially fruitful source o f occupational

mobility data is the National Longitudinal Surveys

conducted for the U.S. Department o f Labor by Herbert

24Occupational Mobility o f Scientists, Bulletin 1121 (Bureau 

of Labor Statistics, 1953).

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Parnes of the Center for Human Resources Research.25

These data represent one o f the largest longitudinal

samples in existence, with about 5,000 persons in each

of four age-sex groups interviewed annually for five

years. The sample contains a wealth o f detail, including

personal, economic, and demographic characteristics.

Occupations follow the detailed 1960 census classifications. (172-176)

GEOGRAPHIC TRANSFERS

Measurement o f occupational entries and separations

from geographic transfers requires the same type of data

as measurement o f occupational transfers, i.e. longitudinal data. Much o f the discussion of occupational

mobility data therefore applies to geographic mobility

data as well.

Calculation o f geographic mobility rates is complicated by the fact that geographic and occupational

transfers often occur simultaneously. That is, a worker

changes residence and occupation at the same time. It is

not always evident which type of transfer is primary and

which is incidental. Analysis o f mobility patterns to

determine why, as well as how many, workers move

requires information on labor force status, occupation,

and other characteristics o f movers both before and after

they move.

Geographic mobility occurs on two levels: movements across international boundaries (immigration and

emigration), and movements within a nation (internal

migration). While a great deal o f data are available on

both levels for total populations and the total labor

force, very little occupational detail is available.

Immigration and emigration

The files o f the Immigration and Naturalization

Service (INS), U.S. Department of Justice, constitute a

basic source of data on occupations of immigrants. Data

are published by major occupational group in the INS

annual reports, and can be obtained in greater detail

from INS. According to INS sources, no data are

available on persons who emigrate from the United

States.

INS immigration data show only the occupation at

time o f entry, and not after residence in the United

States. A recent study funded by the Manpower Administration furnishes followup data on occupations in 1972

o f immigrants entering during the 1970 fiscal year. The

report presents analyses by major occupation group, age,

sex, and other characteristics. (191)

The National Science Foundation has tabulated INS

data for scientists, engineers, physicians, and surgeons

for 1949-70. The NSF publication includes an analysis

o f the effect o f changing immigration laws, and some

data on foreign-born scientists derived from the NSF

Register. (188-190) The National Institutes o f Health

have also utilized INS files in a recent study of

immigrant nurses. (192)

The American Medical Association provides information on immigration o f physicians derived from licensure

records. (187) The National Institutes of Health also

compile information on foreign medical graduates. (193)

Internal migration

The two major recurring sources o f migration data,

the Current Population Survey and the Continuous Work

History Sample o f the Social Security Administration,

are not currently usable for migration analysis by

detailed occupation. The CPS annually reports interstate

and intrastate mobility for the total population and for

adult males by major occupation group. The Social

Security Administration reports workers by industry but

not by occupation.

Geographic mobility data by detailed occupation for

the total labor force are available only from the

decennial censuses. Earlier censuses do not include the

occupational mobility feature o f the 1970 census, but

do report geographic mobility by major occupation

group status in the census year. (198, 199)

As with occupational mobility, most studies of

geographic mobility have relied on special surveys of

specific areas or occupations, or have analyzed only

major occupational groups. A major study on the

mobility o f college faculty, for example, relied on a

special mail survey o f over 7,500 faculty members.

Another study dealt only with comparison of mobility

rates for professional, technical, and kindred workers

with other major occupational groups. (194-197)

ENTRANTS FROM OUTSIDE

THE LABOR FORCE

Labor force accession rates are available for estimating the total number o f labor force entrants by age and

sex. The rates are most important for females since they

identify the patterns of reentry or delayed entry that are

characteristic o f women. Accession rates are derived

25For details on the surveys, see Herbert S. Parnes, 

“Longitudinal Surveys: Prospects and Problems,” Monthly

Labor Review, February 1972, pp. 11-15. Individual reports are 

listed in the bibliography.

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from working life tables in the same manner as death

and separation rates, which are discussed in the following section.26

Existing accession rates, however, cannot be used to

estimate labor force accessions by occupation unless

assumptions are made about the occupational distribution o f entrants. For example, female reentrants may be

assumed to be distributed by occupation in the same

manner as total female employment.

More precise estimates o f accessions by occupation

require longitudinal data on labor force and occupational status by age and sex. The major sources of such

data are the 1970 census and the National Longitudinal

Surveys mentioned earlier. Neither o f these sources has

yet been utilized for analyzing labor force accessions by

occupation. (199, 172-176)

Some labor force mobility data are available for

specific groups or occupations. The American Nurses

Association, for example, collects data on the work

activity of licensed professional nurses. Similar data are

available for teachers, scientists, and a number of other

occupations. (200-203)

SEPARATIONS FROM THE LABOR FORCE

AND DEATHS

Information on labor force separations and deaths

consists o f occupational separation and death rates

calculated from working life tables and occupational

age-sex distributions. Detailed descriptions o f the development o f the rates are contained in Tomorrow's

Manpower Needs. 27

A working life table is an actuarial device for

summarizing the mortality and labor force experience of

a particular population over a given period o f time. The

currently available tables contain national annual rates

o f death, labor force separation, 28 and labor force

accession by age and sex. In addition, the tables for

females show rates for separations related to marriages

and to birth o f children. These tables are developed from

mortality statistics collected by the Department of

Health, Education, and Welfare, and labor force participation data collected in the Current Population Survey

26For further details see also Tomorrow’s Manpower Needs,

Vol. 1, Bulletin 1606, (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1969), pp. 

48-50.

27Tomorrow’s Manpower Needs, Vol. 1, pp. 47-58.

28Labor force separations are usually called “retirements,”

a misleading label since retirement is only one type of

separation. The term “retirement” will be used here in the 

colloquial sense, i.e., the worker’s final withdrawal from the 

labor force. The term “separation” includes retirements and all 

other types of separation except deaths.

and tabulated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.29 *

(204-208)

Occupational separation and death rates are calculated by applying age-sex specific rates from the working

life tables to the age-sex distribution of the workers in

the occupation. This method assumes that separation

and mortality patterns are the same for all occupations.

The resulting rates therefore vary among occupations

only as age-sex distributions vary.

Actual separation and death patterns, o f course, vary

with working conditions, pension benefits, occupational

hazards and diseases, and a variety o f other occupational

factors. In addition, although labor force participation

rates o f women are known to vary considerably by level

o f education and therefore by occupation, these patterns

are not reflected in existing occupational separation

rates.3 9

A serious difficulty with existing separation and

death rates is the timeliness o f occupational age-sex

distribution data. Age-sex distributions change over time

reflecting a variety o f factors such as rapid growth or

decline o f the occupation, or the entrance of an

unusually large cohort o f new workers. Separation and

death rates computed from decennial census data on

age-sex distributions cannot adequately reflect such

changes, as the data base is at least 13 years old before

new data become available.

Age-sex distributions for the total labor force can be

updated from annual Current Population Survey data,

and projected through cohort analysis. This approach

would seem to be useful for occupations as well, since

age-sex data on entrants from various training programs

are either available or could be estimated with reasonable

accuracy. Unfortunately, attempts to apply the cohort

technique have been frustrated by the absence o f data

on age and sex o f workers who enter or leave through

occupational transfers. 1970 census occupational mobility data will provide a means o f estimating the age-sex

characteristics o f occupational transferees. (199)

Age-sex distributions also can be updated using data

from some noncensus source. Such information is

available for many occupations on either a recurring or

nonrecurring basis. Death and separation rates for

optometrists, for example, have been calculated using

age distribution data from a 1968 survey o f active

optometrists conducted by the National Center for

Health Statistics o f the U.S. Public Health Service. (18)

A third problem with existing death and separation

29For discussion of the development of working life tables, 

see Howard N. Fullerton, “A Table of Expected Working Life 

for Men, 1968,” Monthly Labor Review, June 1971, pp. 49-55.

30See Handbook on Women Workers, Bulletin 294 (U.S. 

Department of Labor, Women’s Bureau, 1969), pp. 204-209.

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rates is applicability. Because rates are developed from

national census data, they are strictly applicable only to

national estimates o f census-defined occupations. However, most rates can be applied with reasonable accuracy

to noncensus-deflned occupations as long as the difference in census and noncensus definitions does not affect

a large group o f workers with unusual age, sex, or

retirement patterns.

The problem o f geographic applicability is more

difficult. National rates may be used for States or areas

assuming (1) that the age distribution for the occupation

in a State or area is the same as in the Nation, and (2)

that mortality trends and retirement patterns by age

within the State or area are the same as in the Nation.

Most evidence indicates that the second assumption is

more valid than the first. 3 1

One approach to this problem is to develop State or

area rates from the national working life tables and

occupational age-sex distribution by State. Rates derived

in this fashion are currently being prepared for the 50

States and the District of Columbia from 1970 census

data, and will be published during 1974 by the Bureau

o f Labor Statistics. (216)

In addition to standard life table methodology,

several other methods exist for estimating death and

retirement rates. Many o f these were developed for

particular occupations or are based on old data.

(209-15,217)

OCCUPATIONAL EARNINGS

Occupational earnings data, like employment data,

are available from a variety of sources, primarily

government agencies and private associations. Also,

earnings data may be collected from individuals or from

employers.

Many earnings concepts are used, including wage and

salary rates, straight-time hourly earnings, average hourly

earnings (including overtime, premium, and holiday

pay), and professional income. Care must be taken when

using the data to consider the particular concept

involved.

The major producers o f earnings data among Federal

agencies are the Bureau of the Census and the Bureau of

Labor Statistics. Census o f Population data include the

median earnings in 1969 o f workers by detailed occupation in 1970. Data are available by sex, race and Spanish

origin, State, and other detail for 1970 and earlier

censuses. (229) The major limitations are the lack of

information on the hours of work per year, and 31

31 For elaboration see Tomorrow’s Manpower Needs, Vol. 1, 

pp. 52-54.

mismatching o f earnings and occupations for respondents who changed occupations between 1969 and the

census week.

The Bureau o f the Census also collects data on total

money earnings o f civilian workers by major occupation

group, in the Current Population Surveys. (230) Although uses of these data for supply analysis are limited

because o f lack o f detailed occupational categories, data

for farmers and farm managers and for private household

workers may be useful. Data are also cross-classified by

race, sex, class of worker, full- and part-time work, work

experience, and major industry group.

Bureau of Labor Statistics occupational earnings data

are generally from employer surveys. The Area Wage

Surveys (formerly Occupational Wage Surveys) produce

annual straight-time hourly or weekly earnings data, by

sex, for about 80 occupations. The survey universe

includes firms with 50 employees or more in six industry

divisions. Data are published for the total United States,

for regions, and for about 90 metropolitan areas; some

information is given on scheduled weekly hours, shift

differential practices, fringe benefits, and wage trends.

(234)

The National Survey o f Administrative, Technical,

and Clerical Pay is prepared in cooperation with the U.S.

Civil Service Commission and the Office of Management

and Budget, and provides data on private industry pay

for use in setting Federal civil service pay levels. The

survey reports wage and salary levels and distributions

for about 80 occupation-work levels covering 12 broad

occupational groups. The survey covers seven industry

categories, excluding establishments with fewer than a

minimum number of workers for each industry. Data are

shown by industry, for establishments of 2,500 or more,

for changing salary levels over time, and for average

weekly scheduled hours. (236)

Current Wage Developments contains data on salary

levels and trends for the Nation and for regions and

city-size groups, for city public school teachers, Federal

employees, and firemen and policemen. Data are compiled from various sources such as the National Education Association and the U.S. Civil Service Commission,

and also appear in separate Salary Trends bulletins.

(237)

Another major source of earnings information is the

series of annual Union Wages and Hours bulletins, which

list union wage rates and wage rate indexes by occupation, skill level, and metropolitan area. Separate annual

bulletins are issued for building trades, printing trades,

local transit, and local trucking. (238)

The BLS also conducts periodic wage surveys of

about 50 selected manufacturing and 20 nonmanufacturing industries. Most are surveyed every 5 years, but a

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number of low-wage industries are surveyed on a 3 -year

cycle. The surveys provide data on straight-time firstshift wage rates, methods o f payment, frequency

distributions for individual workers in selected occupations and for broad employment groups, weekly work

schedules, shift differentials, and fringe benefits. (235)

Federal regulatory agencies often publish wage and

earnings statistics for industries they regulate. Data are

generally derived from company reports to the agencies.

Examples include the Federal Aviation Administration

(scheduled airlines), U.S. Maritime Administration

(merchant marine), and the Interstate Commerce Commission (railroads). (223, 239, 240) Other Federal

agencies also issue earnings information for occupations

or industries in their areas o f concern, such as higher

education salary data published by the Office of

Education and the National Science Foundation, and

income data for physicians, osteopaths, and dentists

published by the Social Security Administration. (227,

231-233)

A variety of private associations publish data on

earnings, wage rates, and salary scales. The quality of the

data varies from source to source, so each must be

evaluated independently. The National Education Association is probably the most significant private source of

data; the NEA published results o f biennial surveys of

elementary and secondary schools as well as data on

higher education. (224-226) The American Chemical

Society published an annual report on chemists’ salary

levels. (218) A number of other private sources are listed

in the bibliography. (219-222, 228, 241)

ANALYTICAL STUDIES

While the field of manpower analysis, and especially

the area of supply analysis, is relatively new, there is

already a considerable body o f analytical literature. The

studies may be roughly divided into three categories:

discussions o f issues and concepts, studies on individual

occupations and occupational groups, and methodological studies. The final section o f the bibliography of

this paper lists specific studies in all three categories.

Though the list does not pretend to be complete, it

includes a variety o f views and types o f analysis as well

as a variety of occupations.

The first category includes the issues and concepts

discussed in the earlier sections o f this study, such as

defining shortages and surpluses and information needs

for policymaking. Additional issues include the nature of

forecasting, the relationship between education and

occupation, and various approaches to occupational and

manpower analysis such as the human capital concept

and relative wage analysis. (242-260)

Studies of individual occupations and occupational

groups cover a broad range o f technical and econometric

sophistication, but are concentrated on three occupational areas: science and engineering, teaching, and

health care. Many of these studies put theoretical

concepts to work in empirical analysis o f occupational

supply behavior. (261-323) Methodological studies, overlapping the first and second categories somewhat, deal

mainly with how to use concepts and data resources.

Issues of accuracy and completeness o f results are

considered. (324-339)

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Chapter 4. Directions for the Future

The preceding sections have examined various concepts of occupational supply, types of analysis, and the

quantity and quality of existing supply data. Many

questions have been raised that cannot be answered

without new research and, in some cases, new data.

This section discusses specific work in the further

development of supply information. Suggestions include

improvements of existing studies and methodologies,

utilization o f new and unexploited data resources, and

collection of new data needed to improve the analyses of

supply in specific occupations.

Inventory o f supply information. Supply data and

analyses are widely scattered among reports of Federal,

State, and local government agencies, academic institutions, professional associations, and other producers and

users of occupational information. The variety of items

found in the bibliography o f this paper illustrates the

problem.

Any specific supply study should include a survey of

previous research and existing data resources. In view of

the variety of sources, however, this task is complicated

by the lack of a centralized guide to existing information. Indexes to professional journals cover only a small

portion o f the information. Many unpublished sources

such as Ph.D. dissertations or special tabulations of

census data are not listed in standard references. Few

analysts are able to conduct a comprehensive survey of

applicable information sources within reasonable time

and cost limits.

Supply analysis can be facilitated by establishing an

inventory of existing information resources. The inventory should list sources of data, including a description

o f their format, quality, detail, type of collection, and

any other relevant information. Where feasible, actual

data should be included, especially if they are from

unpublished or other difficult-to-obtain sources. The

inventory should also list existing studies o f individual

occupations, supply concepts, and other topics, along

with descriptions o f material in each study. Inclusion of

State a n | local sources is especially important in view of

the responsibility of State and local planners for

analyzing occupational supply and demand relationships

when planning training programs under the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act o f 1973 and other

programs.

Analysts using the inventory could quickly locate

existing analyses, determine whether adequate data are

available, and discern whether additional research and

data collection are required to answer their particular

needs.

Occupational mobility. Occupational mobility represents

probably the largest gap in existing supply information.

This gap will be narrowed considerably through analyses

o f mobility rates computed from special tabulations of

the 1970 census data for detailed occupations. These

rates will be used in conjunction with rates for major

occupation groups, computed from published data, to

identify mobility patterns and to estimate the effect of

age and sex on mobility. Rates for detailed occupations

will be used to estimate the number of job openings and

entrances to specific occupations resulting from

mobility.

Mobility rates and patterns derived from other data

sources should be developed and compared with the

census rates. The National Longitudinal Surveys and the

Post-Censal Surveys are the primary candidates for

analysis, but other sources for particular occupations

and geographic areas should be included as well.

Labor force accessions. Special tabulations of 1970

census occupational mobility data can be used to

estimate occupational entry rates o f persons outside the

labor force. Data include the 1970 occupations of

individuals unemployed and not in the labor force in

1965. Tabulations of detailed occupations by sex and

age can be used to estimate the occupational distribution

of labor force accessions.

Functional analysis. Sufficient data exist for many

occupations to make functional analysis possible. In

fact, analyses have already been conducted for engineers,

scientists, college teachers, secondary and elementary

teachers, nurses, physicians, and many other occupations. Such studies should be continually updated as new

data and insights become available.

The need for updating is particularly apparent now

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since older studies reflect neither the 1970 census data

nor changing economic conditions beginning with the

1970 recession. Most studies during the 1960’s analyzed

supply behavior under conditions o f continually expanding demand. New insights should become apparent as

supply behavior is observed under different demand

conditions.

In addition to estimating wage elasticity, functional

analysis can be used to study the responsiveness of

workers to changing job opportunities, educational

stipends, and a variety of other factors. Recent research

has suggested that wage differentials do not adequately

explain entry into many occupations, but that entrants

are responsive to changing employment opportunities as

measured by the occupation’s rate of growth or decline,

and the number of job vacancies or unemployed

workers. Although this explanation has been tested with

some success for engineers, additional applications to

other occupations may provide useful results.

Labor force separations. Currently available labor force

separation rates assume the same separation patterns for

all occupations. However, college-educated workers,

especially women, display labor force participation rates

significantly higher than those o f workers with less

education. The use of current separation rates, therefore,

overestimates the number of separations for collegedegree occupations, especially if a large proportion of

the workers are female.

New working life tables by age, sex, and educational

attainment would eliminate much of this error. Two

tables for each sex would be most useful, one for

college-educated workers and one for others, since the

largest differential in labor force participation occurs

between these two groups, and most occupations are

easily identifiable as having college or noncollege educational requirements. While new rates for men would be

useful, they are more crucial for female workers. The

differentials in labor force participation are larger for

women, and they tend to be concentrated in relatively

few occupations. Calculation of new tables would

assume no difference in mortality patterns among

education groups, since no mortality data by education

level are available.

As discussed in chapter 2, existing labor force

separation rates do not account for differences in

retirement patterns resulting from factors other than the

occupation’s age-sex composition. The 1970 census

mobility data allow direct observation of labor force

separations by occupation, and is currently being used

by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to evaluate existing

rates derived from working life tables.

New data collection. Though the potential of new data

in the areas of mobility and labor force separations and

accessions is not yet developed, no such opportunities

exist in other areas because data sources are lacking.

Probably the largest data gap is in the area of entry

rates. As discussed in chapter 3, most rates are computed

from followup studies that are out of date, lacking

detail, covering only a portion of the relevant population, or are concentrated on a limited geographic area. In

the area of college graduates, supply analysis could be

strengthened by periodic repetition o f the type of survey

reported in Five Years After the College Degree32, and

in Five and Ten Years After College Entry3 3. New

surveys would not only allow existing entry rates to be

updated, but would also allow comparison of rates from

period to period. Collection of followup data for

noncollege-degree occupations is also necessary.

32 Laure M. Sharp, and others, Five Years After the College

Degree, 5 parts (Washington, D.C.: Bureau of Social Science 

Research, 1965-67).

33 Ann S. Bisconti and Helen S. Astin, Five and Ten Years

After College Entry (Washington, D.C.: American Council on 

Education, Research Reports, Vol. 8, No. 3, 1973).

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The following bibliography lists specific sources of

the supply information described in chapter 3, and is

therefore arranged in the same order as the sections of

that chapter. Although many useful data sources are not

included here, the listing is intended to provide a

representative sampling in all areas. Some sections,

however, are more complete than others: section VII on

labor force separations and deaths probably covers most

existing sources, while section III on followup studies

gives a necessarily limited selection from hundreds of

studies. In general, no attempt was made to include

State and local data in any sections, although many

items may be useful for subnational analyses. The

sections of the bibliography are as follows:

Page

I. Current supply data ............................................................................................................................................. 32

A. Census and Current Population surveys................................................................................................... 32

B. Occupational employment statistics program ......................................................................................... 32

C. Surveys of scientific and technical person nel......................................................................................... 32

D. Industry-occupation m a tr ix ..................................................................................................................... 33

E. Bureau of Labor Statistics wage su rv ey s................................................................................................ 34

F. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare ................................................................................... 34

G. Other Federal agencies ............................................................................................................................. 35

H. Professional associations ........................................................................................................................... 35

II. Occupational training d a ta ................................................................................................................................... 37

A. Colleges and universities .......................................................................................................................... 37

B. junior colleges .............................................................................................................................................. 38

C. Federal manpower program s................................................................. 38

D. Vocational education ................................................................................................................................ 39

E. Apprenticeship program s.......................................................................................................................... 39

F Employer training (except apprenticeship) ........................................................................................... 39

G. Armed Forces ............................................................................................................................................. 40

H. Private vocational schools.......................................................................................................................... 40

III. Followup d ata........................................................................................................................................................ 41

A. Colleges and junior colleges ..................................................................................................................... 41

B. Vocational education ................................................................................................................................ 46

C. Federal manpower program s..................................................................................................................... 47

D. V eterans....................................................................................................................................................... 48

E. O th e r............................................................................................................................................................ 49

IV. Occupational transfers.......................................................................................................................................... 50

A. Census, Current Population surveys, and Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys..................................... 50

B. Postcensal surveys....................................................................................................................................... 51

C. National longitudinal su rv ey s..................................................................................................... 51

D. O th e r.................. 52

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V. Geographic transfers.....................

A. Immigration and emigration

B. Internal migration.................

VI. Entrants from outside the labor fo r c e..................................... 54

VII. Separations from the labor force and deaths ..................................................... ............... .......... 55

A. Working life t a b le s ........................................................................................ 55

B. Additional in form ation................. .................................................................... .. . ............ 55

VIII. Occupational earnings.................................................................

IX. Analytical stu d ies...................................................................................................... 59

A. Issues in occupational and manpower a n a ly sis................................................ 59

B. Studies of individual occupations and occupation g ro u p s................................................... ................. . 62

C. Methods of analysis ............................................................................................................................. 69

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I. Current Supply Data

A. Census and Current Population surveys

1. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1970 Census of Population, Classified Index of Industries

and Occupations, 1971.

Defines the industrial and occupational classification systems for the 1970 Census of Population,

and lists the industry occupational titles which constitute each classification category. The system

includes approximately 19,000 industry and 23,000 occupational titles.

2. _________, ___________ Census of Population: 1970 Subject Reports, Final Report PC(2)-7A, Occupational

Characteristics, 1973.

Employment and unemployment data for detailed occupations by color, sex, class of worker,

earnings, and a variety of other characteristics. Data for earlier censuses are available in publications

o f the same title for the appropriate census years.

3. _____________________Census of Population: 1960 Subject Reports, Final Report PC(2)-7E, Characteristics of

Professional Workers, 1964.

Contains items similar to PC(2)-7A but in greater detail for professional workers. Not published for

1970 census or censuses before 1960.

4. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment and Earnings, monthly.

Monthly national data on employment and unemployment by major occupational group collected in

the Current Population Survey are presented in table A-18; annual averages appear in the January

issue. The October 1973 issue contains 1972 annual averages for nearly 150 occupations or

combinations o f occupations; data for subsequent years will appear annually in the March issue.

B. Occupational employment statistics program

5. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Employment Statistics, 1960-70. Bulletin

1738, 1972.

Discusses the BLS occupational employment statistics program and presents data from the 1968

metalworking survey, the 1970 printing and publication survey, and the 1970 radio-TV

communications equipment manufacturing survey. Further discussion o f the radio-TV survey is

available in the June 1968 Monthly Labor Review.

6. _____________________ Occupational Employment, Special Industry Machinery, except Metalworking, June

1971. Report 430-3, April 1974.

C. Surveys of scientific and technical personnel

7. National Science Foundation publications:

Science and Engineering in American Industry, Final Report on a 1953-54 Survey. NSF 56-16, 1956.

Science and Engineering in American Industry, Report on a 1956 Survey. NSF 59-50, 1960.

Scientific and Technical Personnel in American Industry, Report on a 1959 Survey. NSF 60-62, 1960.

Scientific and Technical Personnel in Industry, 1960. NSF 61-75, 1961.

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Scientific and Technical Personnel in Industry, 1961. NSF 63-32, 1964.

Scientists and Engineers in the Federal Government, October 1958. NSF 61-43, 1961.

Scientific and Technical Personnel in the Federal Government, 1959 and 1960. NSF 61-26, 1962.

Scientific and Technical Personnel in the Federal Government, 1961 and 1962. NSF 64-4,1965.

Scientific and Technical Personnel in the Federal Government, 1964. NSF 67-21,1967.

Reviews o f Data on Science Resources, No. 14, “Scientific and Technical Personnel in the Federal Government

1966.” NSF 68-16, April 1968.

Scientific and Technical Personnel in the Federal Government, 1968. NSF 70-24,1970.

Scientific, Technical and Health Personnel in the Federal Government, 1969. NSF 70-44, 1970.

Employment o f Scientific and Technical Personnel in State Government Agencies, Report on a 1959 Survey.

NSF 61-17, 1961.

Unemployment Rates and Employment Characteristics for Scientists and Engineers, 1971. NSF 72-307, 1972.

Scientists and Engineers in Colleges and Universities, 1961. NSF 65-8, 1965.

Science and Engineering Staff in Universities and Colleges, 1965-75. NSF 67-11,1967.

8. Bureau o f Labor Statistics publications:

Andrews, Edith W., and Maurice Moylan. “Scientific and Professional Employment by State

Governments,” Monthly Labor Review, August 1970, pp. 40-45. Reprint includes appendix tables

A -l through A-29.

Employment o f Scientific and Technical Personnel in Industry, 1962. Bulletin 1418, June 1964.

Employment o f Scientific and Technical Personnel in State Government Agencies, 1962. Bulletin 1412

(1964), and 1964, Bulletin 1557 (1967).

Employment o f Scientists and Engineers, 1950-70. Bulletin 1781, 1973.

Scientific and Technical Personnel in Industry, 1961-66. Bulletin 1609 (1969); 1967, Bulletin 1674

(1970); 1969, Bulletin 1723 (1971); and 1970, pamphlet (1972).

D. Industry-occupation matrix

9. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Employment Patterns for 1960 and 1975.

Bulletin 1599, 1968.

This bulletin provides a detailed description o f the procedures followed in developing the 1975

matrix.

10. ...................................Occupational Employment Statistics 1960-67. Bulletin 1643,1970.

This bulletin discusses the methods used in developing the 1967 and 1970 matrices.

11. --------------, ----------------Tomorrow's Manpower Needs, Vol. /-///, Bulletin 1606, February 1969, and Vol. IV

(Revised), Bulletin 1737, 1971.

These four volumes provide up-to-date manpower projections and a guide to their use in developing

State and area manpower projections. The industry-occupation matrix tables and other manpower

data are presented in Vol. IV.

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12. Directory o f Industry Wage Surveys and Union Wages and Hours Studies, 1960-73, 1973.

Lists industries covered in the BLS industry wage survey program, including publication titles,

bulletin numbers, and a limited description of their content.

13. Area Wage Surveys, Metropolitan Areas, United States and Regional Summaries, 1970-71. Bulletin 1685-92,

1973. Annual since 1950, various bulletin numbers. Before Bulletin 1465 (1965-66) the series were called

Occupational Wage Surveys. Data for individual metropolitan areas are published in individual volumes.

F. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare

14. Office of Education. Digest o f Educational Statistics. Annual since 1962.

Contains historical data on enrollments, teacher employment, degrees conferred, and other items.

Compiled from a variety of original sources listed in the footnotes to each table.

1 5 . _________ Projections o f Educational Statistics. Annual since 1964.

Contains historical data and projections of enrollments, teacher employment, and other items.

16. Public Health Service. Health Resources Statistics. Annual since 1967.

Contains estimates of employment in health occupations and descriptions of accreditation and

education requirements. Also includes information on hospital, outpatient, and other health

facilities.

1 7 . __________Vital Health Statistics, Series 12, including the following items:

Employees in Nursing and Personal Care Homes, United States, May-June 1964. PHS Pub. No. 1000, Series

12, No. 5, September 1966.

Employees in Nursing and Personal Care Homes: Number, Work Experience, Special Training, and Wages,

May-June 1964. PHS Pub. No. 1000, Series 12, No. 5, September 1966.

Employees in Nursing Homes: United States, April-September 1968. DHEW Pub. No. (HSM) 73-1700,

Series 12, No. 15, October 1972.

“Podiatry Manpower Survey, United States, 1970,” National Center for Health Statistics, Monthly Vital

Statistics Report, vol. 19, no. 11, Supplement, Feb. 8, 1971.

1 8 . __________Vital Health Statistics. Series 14, including the following items:

Health Manpower, United States, 1965-67. PHS Pub. No. 1000, Series 14, No. 1.

Pharmacy Manpower, United States 1966. PHS Pub. No. 1000, Series 14, No. 2.

Opticians Employed in Health Services: United States, 1969. Series 14, No. 4. DHEW Pub. No. (HSM)

72-1052, June 1972.

Ophthalmology Manpower: A General Profile, United States, 1968. Series 14, No. 5. DHEW Pub. No.

(HSM) 73-1800, December 1972.

Inpatient Health Facilities as Reported from the 1969 MFI Survey. Series 14, No. 6. DHEW Pub. No.

(HSM) 73-1801, December 1972.

Ophthalmology Manpower: Characteristics o f Clinical Practice, United States, 1968. Series 14, No. 7.

DHEW Pub. No. (HSM) 73-1802, March 1973.

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Optometrists Employed in Health Services, United States, 1968. Series 14, No. 8. DHEW Pub. No. (HSM)

73- 1803, March 1973.

Ophthalmology Manpower: Utilization o f Supplementary Personnel, United States, 1968. Series 14, No. 9.

DHEW Pub. No. (HSM) 73-1803, March 1973.

Podiatry Manpower: A General Profile, United States, 1970. Series 14, No. 10. DHEW Pub. No. (HRA)

74- 1805, 1973.

19. _ National Institutes of Health, Bureau of Health Manpower, Division of Manpower Intelligence. The

Supply o f Health Manpower: 1970 Profiles and Projections to 1990. Forthcoming 1974.

This report is the first phase of project SOAR (Supply, Output, and Requirements), a comprehensive

review o f health manpower for use in planning health programs.

G. Other Federal agencies

20. Air Transport Association of America. Air Transport Facts and Figures. Annual.

Contains occupational employment figures compiled from airline industry reports filed with the

Civil Aeronautics Board.

21. Federal Communications Commission. Annual Report.

Contains occupational employment data for the telephone industry.

22. Interstate Commerce Commission. Transport Statistics in the United States. Annual.

Contains occupational employment data for railroads (part 1), carriers by water (part 5), oil

pipelines (part 6), motor carriers (part 7), freight forwarders (part 8), and private car lines (part 9).

2 3 . _________Wage Statistics o f Class I Railroads in the United States. Statement No. A 300. Annual.

Contains occupational employment statistics for Class I railroads. Before 1966 see Statement M-300.

24. U.S. Civil Service Commission. Occupations o f Federal White-Collar Workers, and Occupations o f Federal

Blue-Collar Workers. Annual.

25. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Industry Wage Survey: Communications. Annual since

1961.

Contains occupational employment and wage data for telephone and telegraph industries. Compiled

from annual reports of Bell System carriers to the FCC.

26. U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Statistical Fact Book o f Aviation. Annual.

Contains employment and other detailed information on scheduled airlines.

27. U.S. Independent Telephone Association. Independent Telephone Statistics. Annual.

Contains occupational employment data for the non-Bell System sector of the telephone industry.

H. Professional associations

28. American Chemical Society. American Chemical Society Member Employment Status, Staff Report, Division of

Professional and Manpower Studies. Annual.

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Contains data on employment status and characteristics of chemists derived from ACS membership

records.

29. American Dental Association. Distribution o f Dentists in the U.S. by State, Region, District, and County.

Annual before 1969, biennial since 1969.

Estimates o f the number of practicing dentists compiled through ADA membership lists and State

licensing boards.

30. American Medical Association, Department of Survey Research. Distribution o f Physicians, Hospitals, and

Hospital Beds in the U.S. Annual 1963-69.

Contains data on physicians by specialty and major professional activity, for regions, States,

counties, metropolitan areas, and the Nation.

31. ________ __________Distribution o f Physicians in the United States. Annual since 1970.

3 2 . ----------------Journal.

Annual licensure issue contains physician employment data.

3 3 . __________ Programs and Publications. November 1971.

Brief bibliography of AMA reports containing data on physicians.

34. American Nurses Association. Facts About Nursing. Annual.

Contains estimates of nursing employment developed from licensure records of State boards of

nursing.

35. American Optometry Association. Journal. Optometric Manpower Issue. Annual.

Contains estimates o f optometric employment derived from AOA membership records and

analytical articles on manpower issues.

36. American Osteopathic Association. A Statistical Study o f the Osteopathic Profession. Annual.

Contains employment estimates for osteopaths.

37. American Podiatry Association publications:

Belleau, Wilfred. Podiatry as a Career, 1965. Revised.

Contains 1962 employment data.

Blauch, Lloyd E. Numbers and the Podiatry Profession.

Contains 1963 employment data.

__________ “ 1964 Surveys of the Podiatry Profession. The Podiatrists: Distribution, Education,

Organization Relationships,” Journal of the American Podiatry Association, March 1965.

Contains 1964 employment data for podiatrists.

38. American Veterinary Medicine Association. A VMA Directory. Biennial.

Contains numbers of veterinarians compiled from licensure statistics. Excludes military and retired

veterinarians.

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3 9 . _________ Dimensions o f Veterinary Medicine. Biennial.

Contains employment data for licensed veterinarians.

40. Engineers Joint Council. American Engineering Manpower 1969. November 1971. Earlier publications include

data for 1964 and 1967.

Presents data from the 1969 National Engineers Register survey o f engineering society members

conducted by the Engineers Joint Council and the National Science Foundation. Includes data by

degree level, type o f employer, specialty, age, and other characteristics.

4 1 . _________ Engineering Employment and Unemployment, 1971. November 1971.

Contains data on employment and unemployment o f engineers by degree level, age, citizenship, year

o f degree, and other characteristics. Based on a survey of 60,000 engineering society members.

42. __________ A Profile o f the Engineering Profession. March 1971.

Presents highlights o f the 1969 National Engineers Register survey, including data on personal and

educational characteristics o f engineers.

43. National Association o f Boards o f Pharmacy. Licensure Statistics and Census o f Pharmacy. Annual since 1967.

Contains counts o f registered pharmacists from licensure statistics as well as additional data from

NABP censuses.

4 4 . __________ NABP Bulletin.

Bulletins before 1967 contain data on the number of registered pharmacists compiled from licensure

records.

II. Occupational Training Data

A. Colleges and universities

45. National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences. Doctorate Production in United States Universities,

1920-62. Publication No. 1142, 1963.

Degree recipients by field, subfield, sex, and institution.

46. _____________________Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities. Annual since 1966.

Degree recipients by field, subfield, institution, and degree level beginning with 1958. Data differ

from those of the Office of Education in that 1) they are counts of individuals, not degrees

conferred, 2) they include only research doctorates and exclude performance doctorates not

requiring a research dissertation, 3) classification by field and subfield are different, and 4) data are

by fiscal year instead o f academic year.

47. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Health Resources Administration. 1973 Inventory o f

Health Occupations Education Programs in Two-Year and Four-Year Colleges and Universities. In process

1974.

A survey o f degree, diploma, and certificate programs in health professions except nursing, M.D.’s or

O.D.’s, and scientists. Includes administration, technical and clerical occupations, nursing-related

service personnel, and several other health professions. Data include type o f award, enrollment by

race and sex, entrance requirements, cost, and other items. Conducted for HEW by the Association

of Schools o f Allied Health Professions.

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48. ------------- , Office of Education. Digest of Educational Statistics. Annual since 1962.

Contains data on enrollments, degrees, and other items. Compiled from various sources indicated in

table footnotes.

49. --------------, -------------- - Earned Degrees Conferred. 2 vols.: Summary Data and Institutional Data. Annual by

academic year since 1947-48.

The first volume reports the number of degrees by level of degree, field of specialization, sex of

recipient, State, and control and level of institution. The second volume provides a listing of

bachelor’s and higher degrees conferred in each academic field by each institution.

50. ------------- ------------------Fall Enrollment in Higher Education. 2 vols.: Summary Data and Institutional Data.

Annual.

Includes opening fall enrollments by type o f program, institutional level and control, attendance

status, and sex of student. Historical data are available beginning with 1946.

51. ------------- -----------------Students Enrolled for Advanced Degrees. 2 vols.: Summary Data and Institutional Data.

Annual since 1959.

Data on enrollments classified by field of specialization, level of study, attendance status, sex, State,

institutional level and control, and by individual institution.

52. -------------------------------Projections o f Educational Statistics. Annual since 1964.

Lists projections of enrollments, graduates, faculty, and expenditures for higher education, as well as

similar projections for elementary and secondary schools.

53. --------------, ----------------Publications o f the National Center for Educational Statistics. (OE) 73-11000. Annual.

Lists regular publications of the Office of Education, National Center for Education Statistics.

Headings include Elementary and Secondary Education, Higher Education, Library Statistics, Adult

and Vocational Education, and others.

B. Junior colleges

54. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office of Education. Associate Degrees and Other Formal

Awards Below the Baccalaureate. (OE-54045). Annual by academic year since 1965-66.

Contains extensive summary data as well as data on individual institutions for 1) associate degrees

meeting bachelor’s degree credit criteria, 2) awards in organized occupational curriculums for work

at the technical or semiprofessional level, and 3) awards in organized occupational curriculums for

work below the technical or professional level. Data are reported by type and length of curriculum,

State or area, and sex of recipients.

C. Federal manpower programs

55. U.S. Department o f Health, Education, and Welfare, Office of Education. Inventory o f Vocational Education

Statistics in Federal Agencies. (OE-80069), 1970.

Lists by agency sources of data on occupational training, including MDTA, health training programs,

and many other programs.

56. U.S. Department of Labor. Manpower Report o f the President. Annual since 1963.

Statistical appendix presents summary data on Federal manpower programs, including total

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enrollments, completions, and post-training employment. Manpower policy developments of each

year are discussed in the test of the report. For further information see Index to the Manpower

Reports o f the President, 1963-72.

D. Vocational education

57. U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Office of Education. Annual Report on Vocational and

Technical Education. Annual 1965-69.

Contains data on enrollments by State and field in vocational education programs.

58. _________ ____________ Enrollment in Vocational Education Occupation Programs. Vocational Education

Information No. 11. Annual since FY 1966.

Contains enrollments by detailed occupational programs for fiscal years.

59. _________, ___________Inventory o f Vocational Education Statistics in Federal Agencies. (OE-80069), 1970.

60. _____________________Vocational Education and Characteristics of Students and Teachers, 1967. (OE-80073),

1973.

61. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Tomorrow’s Manpower Needs, Bulletin 1606,

Supplement 3, 1973.

Contains conversion tables for matching occupational classifications o f BLS projections to

vocational education program codes.

E. Apprenticeship programs

62. U.S. Department of Labor. Manpower Report o f the President. Annual since 1963.

Contains summary data on annual new registrations, cancellations, and completions of apprenticeship training since 1947.

F. Employer training (except apprenticeship)

63. Foster, Howard G. “Non-apprentice Sources of Training in Construction,” Monthly Labor Review, February

1970, pp. 21-26.

Reports the results of a survey of 784 construction craftsmen and over 70 businessmen in upstate

New York, including data on percent o f respondents receiving training from various sources.

64. Neary, H. James. “The BLS Pilot Survey of Training in Industry,’" Monthly Labor Review, February 1974, pp.

26-32.

Describes the results of the BLS pilot survey of training in metalworking industries, including

methods of data collection and the survey design. The pilot survey was conducted to determine

whether reliable data could be collected on training enrollments and completions in industry.

65. Somers, Gerald G. Availability o f Data on Company Training Programs: A Feasibility Study. Madison:

University of Wisconsin, 1971.

Includes limited pilot survey data on company training.

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66. _________, and Myron Roomkin. Training and Skill Acquisition: A Pilot Case Study. Madison: University of

Wisconsin, 1972.

Reports on a study conducted for the Manpower Administration of the U.S. Department of Labor,

aimed at determining the training procedures, the sources, costs, and benefits of skill acquisition and

transferability of skills in one company. The study had the additional purpose of refining

methodological techniques in surveys of company training programs.

67. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Bureau of Health Resources Development. Survey of

Preparatory Education Programs in Hospitals. In process 1974.

A survey of occupational preparatory and advanced training programs in hospitals, including nursing,

laboratory services, and several other areas. Data include type of award granted, entry requirements,

enrollment, cost, and relationship to the Manpower Development and Training Act (MDTA) and

Jobs in the Business Sector (JOBS). Conducted for HEW by the American Hospital Association.

68. U.S. Department of Labor, Manpower Administration. Formal Training o f Adult Workers. Manpower/

Automation Research Monograph No. 2, 1964.

Reports on a 1963 survey of workers between the ages of 22 and 64 who had completed less than

three years o f college. Respondents were asked how much education they had; whether they had

taken occupational training in high school, technical school, correspondence schools, company

training programs, apprenticeship, or the Armed Forces; and whether they used their training in

their current job. The sample was the April 1963 Current Population Survey sample of 35,000

households.

69. _________ , ---------------. Training o f Workers in American Industry. Research Division, Report No. 1, 1962.

Reports the results of a 1962 survey of 700,000 establishments to determine the extent and nature

of industry training efforts.

70. _____________________ Transferring Military Experience to Civilian Jobs. Manpower/Automation Research

Monograph No. 8, 1968.

Study of post-military experience of Air Force veterans who left the service during 1965 and 1966.

G. Armed Forces

71. Clark, Harold F., and Harold S. Sloan. Gassrooms in the Military: Account o f Education in the Armed Forces of

the United States. New York: Columbia University Teachers College, Bureau of Publications, 1964.

72. U.S. Department of Defense, Office of Assistant Secretary. Selected Manpower Statistics. Annual.

Data on persons discharged from the Armed Forces, by broad military job classification.

73. _________, ___________Transitional Manpower Programs, 1970.

Contains information on Project Transition.

H. Private vocational schools

74. U.S. Department o f Health, Education, and Welfare, Office of Education. Directory o f Postsecondary Schools

with Occupational Programs, 1971. DHEW Publication No. (OE)73-l 1410, 1973.

A comprehensive list of all schools offering postsecondary occupational training, including private

vocational schools as well as 2- and 4-year colleges.

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75. ____________Survey o f Programs and Enrollments in Postsecondary Schools. In process 1974.

Survey o f a sample of schools drawn from the Directory cited above.

III. Followup Data

A. Colleges and junior colleges

76. American Institute of Physics. 1967-68 Graduate Student Survey. AIP Publication No. R-2071, January 1969.

Reports on a survey of 9,000 students enrolled in graduate physics departments, including

information on age, sex, and citizenship; graduate education; undergraduate major; geographic

region; type of employment accepted by new master’s and doctor’s degree recipients; and number of

job offers.

7 7 . _________Summary Report: Survey o f Physics Bachelor's Degree Recipients, 1967-68. Publication No. R-211,

December 1968.

Based on results of a survey of 2,890 bachelor degree recipients, the report provides data on regional

distribution, post-baccalaureate plans, age distribution, sources of support for graduate study, type

o f employment accepted, and median salary.

78. Astin, Alexander. The College Drop Out: A National Profile. Washington, D.C.: American Council on Education,

1972.

Examines what happens to the college dropout, his entry into the labor force, transfer rates,

and likelihood of return to college.

79. __________ and Robert J. Panos. The Educational and Vocational Development o f College Students.

Washington, D.C.: American Council on Education, 1969.

Presents data on college freshmen of 1961 who were followed up in 1965, examines changes in

career choices over the 4-year period as well as predictors of career choice.

80. Astin, Helen, and Ann S. Bisconti. Career Plans o f College Graduates o f 1965 and 1970. Bethlehem, Pa.: College

Placement Council, Inc., 1972.

Reports on entry to employment by type of employer, undergraduate major, occupation, and other

items. Based on data from the American Council on Education.

81. Astin, Helen, and Ann S. Bisconti. Undergraduate and Graduate Study in Scientific Fields. Washington, D.C.:

American Council on Education, ACE Research Reports, Vol. 8, No. 3, August 1973.

This report examines the flow of a national cohort of college freshmen o f 1961 over a decade,

focusing on patterns of undergraduate study, attrition, degree attainment, advanced study, and

employment. Findings on the progress and goals of 1966 freshmen are included as a means of

comparison with the 1961 cohort. Contains 78 separate cross-tabulations.

82. Astin, Helen, Elaine El-Khawas, and Ann S. Bisconti. Beyond the College Years. Washington, D.C.: American

Council on Education, 1974.

Report prepared for the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes o f Health, uses

correlation and regression analysis to examine factors associated with career outcomes and presents

data on career flows.

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83. Bayer, Alan, Jeannie Royer, and Richard Webb. Four Years After College Entry. Washington, D.C.: American

Council on Education, ACE Research Reports, Vol. 8, No. 1, 1973.

Followup of a sample of the freshmen class of 1967.

84. Berger, Alan S. Longitudinal Studies on the Class o f 1961, The Graduate Science Students. Report No. 107.

Chicago: National Opinion Research Center, January 1967.

Using a sample of 4,394 seniors from 135 accredited institutions, the report deals with three major

areas: actual graduate enrollment in science fields, the percentages o f those actually enrolling, and the

career activities of graduate students in the selected science fields.

85. Blank, Arthur, Margaret Koneisky, Leonard Kogan, and Lawrence Podell. The Graduates Restudied: A

Comparison o f the Follow-up o f New York City High School Graduates o f 1970 and 1971. New York:

Center for Social Research, The Graduate School and University Center, The City University of New York,

1972.

86. Boercker, Fred, Lindsey R. Harmon, and William C. Kelly. “Employment Status of Recent Recipients of the

Doctorate,” Science, May 22, 1970, pp. 930-39.

87. Calvert, Robert Jr. “Liberal Arts Graduates—What Do They Have to Report?” Journal o f College Placement,

February-March 1969.

Based on a study conducted through the Survey Research Center of the University o f California at

Berkeley, the article describes the employment activities of 11,000 graduates from the classes of

1948, 1953, and 1958 from 100 liberal arts institutions. Data are presented about their salaries, how

they feel about their careers, how hard they work, who helped them obtain their jobs, how they feel

about a liberal arts education, and whether they have a clear career direction.

88. College Placement Council, Inc. Careers o f College Graduates Within the Private Sector. Forthcoming 1974.

Career patterns o f men and women currently employed in private companies compared to those of

men and women in other sectors. Focuses on dynamics of career choice in these settings, including

reasons for choices, academic achievement, and degree attainment.

8 9 . _________ The College Graduate: Turnover and Mobility. Report No. 3, Bethlehem, Pa., 1970.

Using National Opinion Research Center data for 33,000 graduates of the class of 1961, the report

studies labor force mobility and job changing during the five years after graduation. Detail includes

degree field, type of employer, and sex. Earlier reports in the series dealt with graduates’ attitudes

toward business, and job satisfaction.

9 0 . __________College-Year Plans and Long-Run Career Outcomes o f College Graduates. Forthcoming 1974.

Actual occupations of college graduates compared with college-year plans. Analyses flow directly

from Career Plans o f College Graduates o f 1965 and 1970 (see entry 80 above), but provide greater

detail in classification of majors and careers.

91. , and Sandia Corporation. “A Statistical Report: Placement and Recruitment,” Journal of College

Placement, April 1965.

This survey o f 644 placement officers indicates types of placement services provided, number of

students assisted, types of jobs and size of placement staff, and an analysis of turnover among the

placement staff.

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92. Council, Kathryn A. Attrition: A Campus Profile. Raleigh: North Carolina State University, Student Affairs

Research, October 1972.

Reports attrition rates by type of program for NCSU students entering in 1965.

93. Dickinson, Carl, and Betty Newbegin. ‘T he Occupations They are Choosing,” Journal o f College Placement,

February-March 1968.

Data for this study are from a questionnaire followup of 1,171 male graduates of the University of

Washington who completed bachelor’s degrees between March and December 1966. Tables

show the type of employer chosen by major field, monthly starting salaries, and percentages entering

graduate study.

94. ________, _________ “Pursuing the Engineer,” Journal o f College Placement. October-November 1957.

A survey o f 345 engineering graduates at the University of Washington who completed their degree

requirements between December 1965 and December 1966. The effects of various factors on

engineers’ career choice are studied, such as academic performance, campus interviewing, salary,

location, and type of work.

95. El-Khawas, Elaine, and Ann S. Bisconti. Five and Ten Years After College Entry. Washington, D.C.: American

Council on Education, ACE Research Reports, Vol. 9, No. 1,1974.

Descriptive report including 1971 data on college freshmen of 1961 and 1966.

96. Engineering Manpower Commission. Engineering and Technology Graduates. New York: Engineers Joint

Council. Annual.

Survey of 2-year associate degrees granted for completion of engineering and technology

curriculums.

97. _________... Placement o f Engineering Graduates. New York: Engineers Joint Council. Annual.

Data from a survey of over 200 engineering schools provide information on the placement status of

24,000 technical and 14,500 nontechnical graduates who received bachelor’s degrees. Number and

percentages of graduates entering employment, graduate school, and military service are given.

9 8 . _________ Prospects for Engineering and Technology Graduates 1968. New York: Engineers Joint Council,

September 1968.

Based on 208 engineering schools and 52 other technological institutions, this survey provides

information on the placement status of 26,815 graduates in 1968. Gives entrance rates of graduates

into labor force, graduate schools, and military service.

99. Ginsberg, Eli. “The Conservation of Talent—Lessons for Management,” Journal o f College Placement,

October-November 1965.

A study o f the career development o f 342 male students who had been awarded graduate fellowships

by Columbia University during the early post-World War II years (1945-51).

100. Hunt, Donald C. Their First Jobs After College. Detroit: University of Detroit. Annual.

Bachelor’s graduates from the University’s Schools of Architecture, Arts and Sciences, Commerce

and Finance, and Engineering report their experiences. Charts give data on degrees, sources of job

references, starting salaries, reasons for job selection, and correlation of hometown to final job

location.

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101. Kauffman, Warren E. “The Class of 1 9 6 3 /’ Journal o f College Placement, April 1964.

A nationwide study of 51,000 graduates of 102 colleges and universities. Data are available on those

who accepted employment as of June 1963, the proportion going on to graduate school, the number

still seeking employment, and the number entering military service.

102. Mercer, Charles. Public Post-Secondary Education in the US. Center Monograph No. 3. Chapel Hill: University

of North Carolina, Center for Occupational Education, 1969.

103. National Opinion Research Center. Patterns o f Change in the Long Run Career Fields o f June 1961 College

Graduates. September 1965.

Changes in career fields of 41,000 college students are analyzed to three years after graduation. One

hundred fields are examined concerning the students from 135 institutions.

104. National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences. Careers o f Ph.D.'s-Academic versus NonAcademic-A Second Report on Follow-up o f Doctorate Cohorts 1935-1960. Career Patterns Report No.

2, Publication 1577, 1968.

By studying the careers o f 10,000 holders of third-level research degrees, systematically selected

from the graduating classes of 1935, 1940,1950, 1955, and 1960, this report focuses on the factors

associated with choice o f employment in academic or other settings, with particular emphasis on the

circumstances surrounding a change in employer category.

105. -------------------------------Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities. Annual since 1966.

Gives number of degrees, post-doctoral plans, employment, and field of work, by specific field of

degree. Includes historical data beginning in 1958.

106. _____________________ Education and Employment Patterns o f Bioscientists, a Statistical Report. February

1971.

Contains data from many sources on enrollments, degrees earned, and employment. Identifies areas

where data are not readily available. Bibliography.

107. National Science Foundation. Two Years After the College Degree-Work and Further Study Patterns. NSF

63-26, 1963.

Reports on a 1960 survey of over 40,000 1958 baccalaureate degree recipients. Includes data on

work and further study activities.

108. Newark College of Engineering, Placement Office. Senior Survey. Annual.

Reports placement of engineers by type of work, salary, type of employer, and location.

109. Pervin, Lawrence. “Counseling the College Dropout,” Journal o f College Placement, October-November 1965.

This study at Princeton University analyzes career accomplishments of college dropouts from three

classes - 1940, 1951, and 1960. A study of those returning to college is included, indicating an

increase in successive years.

110. Schwartz, Mildred A. United States College-Educated Population: 1960. Report No. 102. Chicago: National

Opinion Research Center, October 1965.

Answers questions such as what proportion o f those with college degrees are actively employed,

what percentage are employed in the field o f their degree. The report shows contrasts among degree

levels and age/sex groups.

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111. Sharp, Laure M. “Graduate Study and Its Relation to Careers: The Experience of a Recent Cohort of College

Graduates,” Journ al o f Human Resources, Fall 1966, pp. 41-58.

Data on entrance rates of those with graduate school background. Employment patterns are given

for those in the study. Based on the Five Years After the College Degree data (see below).

1 1 2 . _________“The Meaning of the Bachelor’s Degree: Some Recent Survey Findings,” Sociology o f Education,

Winter 1963, pp. 93-109.

Gives limited statistical information on the value o f a college education as it concerns entrance into

the labor market. Based on data from Two Years After the College Degree (see National Science

Foundation above).

113. _________ _ et.al. Five Years After the College Degree. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of Social Science Research, 5

volumes:

Part I: Graduate and Professional Education. 1965.

Part II: Occupational Outcome (Text Tables: Appendix Tables). 1965.

Part III: A Methodological Note. 1966.

Part IV: Military Service. 1967.

PartV: Geographic Mobility. 1967.

Based on a survey in 1963 of 1958 bachelor’s degree recipients including a subsample o f

individuals surveyed in the National Science Foundation study, Two Years After the College

Degree, who obtained further graduate and professional education during 1958-63. Describes

occupational entry and other characteristics by type o f training.

114. _________ , and Thelma Myint. Graduates o f Vocational-Terminal Programs in Junior Colleges, Results o f a

Follow-up Study o f the Gass o f 1966. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of Social Science Research, September

1970.

Data are presented on entrance rates, starting salary, type of employer, and other items for junior

college graduates.

115. Snelling, W., and R. Boruch. Science in Liberal Arts Colleges: A Longitudinal Study o f 49 Selective Colleges.

New York: Columbia University Press, 1972.

A followup study o f recipients of bachelor’s degrees in science.

116. Spaeth, Joe L., and Norman Miller. Trends in the Career Plans and Activities o f June 1961 College Graduates,

March 1965.

The Office o f Education and the National Institutes o f Health sponsored this study emphasizing the

choice of field for the careers of 1961 college graduates.

117. Stamm, Alfred M. “ 1967 Social Work Graduates: Salaries and Characteristics,” National Association o f Social

Workers, Personnel Information, March 1968.

Of 3,817 graduates of the 64 schools o f social work, 1,937 responded to the survey. Ten tables

provide information on the graduates by age and sex, prior employment, plan for future education,

type o f practice, type of employer, and salary by employment, sex, type o f practice, and prior

experience.

118. Taplin, Lois. Employment Patterns o f Xavier University Graduates-1964. Xavier University Placement Office,

1967.

Gives entrance rates for 1964 graduates of Xavier University. Different types of occupations are

analyzed for the relationship—if any— to the college major.

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119. Underhill, Ralph. Occupational Values and Post-College Career Change. Chicago: National Opinion Research

Center, June 1967.

A response to questionnaires sent each year for 3 years to 15,850 male college graduates. Career

variations are examined in relation to occupational choice and values. This follow-up provides

information on the entrance into the work force of these graduates.

120. U.S. Department of Labor, Women’s Bureau. College Women - 7 Years After Graduation, 1966, Bulletin 292,

1966.

A 7-year followup of women who graduated in 1957. The present status of the graduates concerning

employment, education, and salaries is presented.

121. _________, ___________15 Years After College. Bulletin 283, 1962.

An exploratory survey of 580 alumnae from 4 colleges in 1945. It gives detailed employment

patterns of graduates and nongraduates.

122. __________________Trends in Educational Attainment o f Women. Annual since 1965.

Tables and charts provide information on female high school graduates, college degrees conferred,

and the labor force participation rates of women from 1952 to the present.

123. University o f Illinois. 1960 Engineering Graduates- Where Are They Now? Urbana: University of Illinois, College

of Engineering, 1965.

A 5-year followup study of 1960 graduates. Statistics on salaries, regional distribution, types of

employers, job turnover, and the number o f graduates obtaining advanced degrees.

124. University of Michigan. Annual Report o f Engineering Placement. Ann Arbor: Engineering Placement Service,

College of Engineering. Annual.

Reports positions accepted by engineering graduates by location, type of work, type o f employer, as

well as data on placement activities.

125. “The Young Architect — A Profile,” Architectural Record, December 1972, pp. 81-85.

Reports results of a survey of 1,500 graduates of architectural schools in the classes o f 1965, 1967,

and 1969. Includes percent who are registered architects, type of employer, and other items.

B. Vocational education

126. Connecticut State Department of Education, Division of Vocational Education. Graduate Follow Up, Statistical

Data on Connecticut Students Completing Vocational Education Programs. Annual since 1967.

Data by type of training, secondary and post-secondary schools, number of graduates employed in

related and in unrelated occupations, number out of the labor force, and mean hourly wages.

127. Duis, Harold. “Employment of Vocational Program Graduates,” American Education, February 1968.

Gives data on entrance rates of graduates from vocational training programs into different

occupational classifications.

128. Eninger, Max. The Process and Product o f T & I High School Level Vocational Education in the United States.

Pittsburgh: American Institutes for Research, September 1965.

Followup of trade and industrial vocational education program graduates.

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129. Gentry, N. Dale. Follow-up Vocational Studies at North Idaho Junior College. Moscow, Idaho: University of

Idaho, College o f Education, The State Occupational Research Unit, July 1967.

Data are presented on students’ labor market entry rates, a breakdown of occupations, transfer

rates, and percentages left unemployed. Data for graduates of programs in automobile body and

fender repair, automobile mechanics, and industrial electronics.

130. Little, J. Kenneth, and Richard W. Whinfield. Followup o f 1965 Graduates o f Wisconsin Schools o f Vocational,

Technical and Adult Education. Madison: University of Wisconsin, Center for Studies in Vocational and

Technical Education, Industrial Relations Research Institute, June 1970.

Data available on completions, percentages o f graduates achieving employment, and types o f

employment, from a sample of 1,500 Wisconsin students.

131. Priebe, Donald. “A Follow-up o f Vocational Agriculture Graduates ” Agriculture Education, June 1968.

This study examines the employment patterns—rates of entry, choice o f field, geographic

breakdown—o f vocational agriculture graduates.

132. Reich, Carol. “Vocational Specialization and Occupational Placement: A Follow-up Study,” Vocational

Guidance Quarterly, June 1973, pp. 281-87.

Using a coding scheme based on the Dictionary o f Occupational Titles, statistical tests on a sample

of vocational students resulted in a poor relationship between training and placement.

133. Somers, Gerald G. The Effectiveness o f Vocational and Technical Programs: A National Follow-up Study.

Madison: University of Wisconsin, Center for Studies in Vocational and Technical Education, 1971.

Based on a 1969 survey of a national sample o f 1966 vocational and technical program graduates,

reports labor force and employment status by type of program, major occupational classification,

and personal characteristics.

C. Federal manpower programs

134. Brown, Thomas C. Occupational Mobility Through MDTA Training. U.S. Department of Labor, Office of

Manpower, Automation, and Training, Manpower Evaluation Report E-2, 1964.

Mobility patterns by occupational group and the effectiveness of Manpower Development and

Training Act programs in meeting needs. Based on Labor Department records.

135. Bureau of Social Science Research. Manpower Development and Training Act Projects:

Follow-up Study o f MDTA Experimental and Demonstration Project at North Carolina A&T

College. Leslie J. Silverman, BSSR 369, 1966.

Follow-up Study of MDTA Experimental and Demonstration Project Conducted by the Michigan

Catholic Conference. Angeles Buenaventura, BSSR 369, 1967.

Follow-up Study o f MDTA E&D Project at Bluefield State College. N. March Hoffman, BSSR 369,

1967.

Follow-up Study o f MDTA E&D Project Conducted by Tuskegee Institute. Louise A. Johnson,

BSSR 369, 1967.

Follow-up Study o f MDTA E&D Project Conducted at Agricultural and Industrial State University

o f Nashville. Louise A. Johnson, BSSR 369, 1967.

Follow-up Study o f Project Uplift, the MDTA E&D Project Conducted by Florida A&M University.

Leslie J. Silverman, BSSR 369, 1967.

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Follow-up Study o f MDTA Projects Conducted by Morgan State College. Diantha Stevenson, BSSR

369, 1967.

These followup studies contain statistical information on completions in the projects,

percentages o f persons obtaining desired employment, breakdowns of the occupations

selected, and background data on the affected people in the projects.

136. Fahey, Frank. Follow-up Study o f Project Able. U.S. Department of Labor, Manpower Administration, 1967.

Evaluates the results of an MDTA project to retrain and reemploy workers displaced by the closing

o f the Studebaker plants in South Bend, Indiana. Occupational detail included.

137. Follow-up o f Graduates o f Experimental and Demonstration Projects in the Washington, D.C. Area, 1966-67.

Washington, D.C.: Catholic University of America, Bureau of Social Research, 1967.

Employment patterns of graduates of experimental MDTA programs for disadvantaged youth.

138. Lundon, H. H. How Fare M.D. T.A. Ex-Trainees-An 18 Month Follow-up Study o f 500 Such Persons. St. Louis:

University of Missouri, December 1967.

Data on 500 trainees from MDTA programs. Entry rates into labor force, type of occupation, and

type of employer are listed.

139. U.S. Department of Labor, Manpower Administration. Manpower Research and Development Projects. Annual

since 1971.

Lists completed research and development projects funded by the Manpower Administration, with

annotations.

D. Veterans

140. National Committee for Children and Youth. Recruitment, Training Placement and Follow-up o f Rejected

Armed Forces Volunteers in Baltimore, Maryland and Washington, D.C., 1967.

A study of the entrance rates into the labor market of rejected Armed Forces volunteers in

Washington and Baltimore.

141. Sharp, Laure M. “Second Careers for Retired Military Personnel: Report on a Recent Survey,” Manpower

Training Facts, May 1965, pp. 7-10.

Data from a survey on employment entrance rates for retired military personnel.

142. Sharp, Laure M., and Albert D. Biderman. Employment o f Retired Military Personnel. BSSR 361. Washington,

D.C.: Bureau o f Social Science Research, 1966.

A detailed study o f the employment practices o f those leaving the military. Occupational

information is given by age, race, and rank. Excerpts are published in the Monthly Labor Review,

January and February, 1967.

143. Sharp, Laure M., and Rebecca Krasnegor. Five Years After the College Degree, Part IV, Military Service.

Washington, D.C.: Bureau o f Social Science Research, 1967.

For annotation, see entry 113 above.

144. U.S. Department of Labor, Manpower Administration. Transferring Military Experience to Gvilian Jobs: A

Study o f Selected Air Force Veterans. Manpower/Automation Research Monograph No. 8, 1968.

A followup study o f Air Force veterans’ choice o f employment following military service.

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145. Weinstein, Paul A. Labor Market Activity of Veterans: Some Aspects o f Military Spillover. College Park:

University of Maryland, 1969.

E. Other

146. Calvert, Robert Jr. “The Returning Peace Corps Volunteer—What Happens, to Him?” Journal o f College

Placement, April-May 1966.

The director of the Peace Corps Career Information Service describes the fields of continuing

education or employment selected by more than 6,000 returnees. By the end of 1967, according to

estimates, nearly 18,000 returned volunteers had been offered placement services.

147. Fifield, Marvin, and Larry E. Watson. A Follow-up Study o f Pocatello and Idaho Falls High School Graduates

(1954-1963). Moscow, Idaho: University of Idaho, College of Education,The State Occupational Research

Unit, June 1967.

Examines the entrance rates of graduates into the labor force, detailed occupational classification,

and continued education.

148. Perrella, Vera C., and Elizabeth Waldman. “Out of School Youth—2 Years Later,” Monthly Labor Review,

August 1966, pp. 860-66.

A 1965 resurvey of young men in a 1963 Current Population Survey study of early work

experience. Assesses the relative progress of graduates and dropouts. Concludes that whatever the

measure used—unemployment rate, earnings, or steadiness o f employment—men with more

education made greater advances over the 2-year period between the surveys.

149. Project Talent—One Year Follow-up Studies. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh, School of Education, 1966.

From an original study in 1966 of a 5-percent sample of high schooUstudents (440,000) in 1,353

schools, the report compiles information on each group one year after graduation. It studies the

nature o f their employment and job satisfaction, the nature and extent of their post-high school

education, and long-range career plans.

150. Project Talent-A 5-year Follow-up Information on High School Graduates o f 1960. Pittsburgh: University of

Pittsburgh, School o f Education, July 1969.

A continuing followup of the high school graduates, their activities during the 5 years after

graduation, examining employment and continuing education.

151. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office of Education. National Longitudinal Study o f the

High School Gass o f 1972. In process 1974.

Study is designed to followup a sample of 20,000 high school seniors of 1972 for several years to

examine their post-secondary educational and occupational status, and its relation to high school

training experience.

152. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training. Career Patterns o f Former Apprentices.

Bulletin No. T-147, March 1959.

Results of a survey of 3,278 workers who completed apprenticeship training in 1950, including data

on the relationship of occupation to apprenticeship training, wage rates, veteran status, and other

items. Occupations covered include eight construction trades, three metalworking trades, mechanic

and repair trades, printing, and others.

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153. Waldman, Elizabeth. Employment o f High School Graduates and Dropouts in 1966. Special Labor Force Report

No. 85. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 1967.

Compares labor force entry rates of graduates and dropouts. Based on data from the October 1966

Current Population Survey. Some data for major occupational groups are included.

IV. Occupational Transfers

A. Census, Current Population Surveys, and Bureau of Labor Statistics Surveys

154. Bancroft, Gertrude, and Stuart Garfinkle. Job Mobility in 1961. Special Labor Force Report No. 35. Bureau of

Labor Statistics, August 1963.

Reports job changing and labor force mobility data from the February 1962 Current Population

Survey.

155. Rosenfeld, Carl, and Vera C. Perrella. Why Women Start and Stop Working: A Study o f Mobility. Special Labor

Force Report No. 59. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 1965.

Analyzes factors affecting labor force mobility o f women 18-64 years o f age, including age, presence

of children, marital status, major occupational group status, and husband’s income. Based on April

1964 Current Population Survey data.

156. Saben, Samuel. Occupational Mobility o f Employed Workers. Special Labor Force Report No. 84. Bureau o f

Labor Statistics, June 1967.

Contains estimates of mobility for major occupational groups derived from January 1966 Current

Population Survey data.

157. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Census of Population: 1970. Subject Reports. Final

Report PC(2)-7E, Occupation and Residence in 1965, 1973.

Contains occupational mobility data for 10 major occupational groups.

158. _____________________ Current Population Reports, Lifetime Occupational Mobility o f Adult Males, Series

P-23, No. 11. March 1962 and annually thereafter, various dates.

Presents data on occupational mobility of males by major occupational group.

159. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. Occupational Mobility o f Scientists. Bulletin 1121, 1953.

Contains detailed mobility data for a sample o f Ph.D. chemists, biologists, and physicists drawn

from the 1948 American Men o f Science register.

160. -------------- , ---------------Mobility o f Molders and Coremakers, 1940-1952. Bulletin 1162, 1954.

Studies the work experience, training, and personal characteristics o f workers, including some data

on occupational transfers. Based on a survey of 1,800 journeymen in eight metropolitan areas.

161______________________ The Mobility o f Tool and Die Makers, 1940-1951. Bulletin 1120, 1953.

Studies the work experience, training, and personal characteristics of workers, including some data

on occupational transfers. Based on a survey of over 1,700 workers in seven large metalworking

areas.

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B. Postcensal surveys

162. Cain, Glen, and W. Lee Hansen, Occupations o f Engineers: Economic Aspects. Madison: University of

Wisconsin, Social Systems Research Institute, January 1967 (unpublished).

163. Kincannon, C. L. “The Census Role in Scientific and Technical Manpower Programs for the 70’s,” American

Statistical Association, Proceedings o f the Social Statistics Section, 1972, 1973, pp. 181-89.

This article describes the survey design, sample design and selection, data collection, and data

processing procedures for the 1972 Postcensal Manpower Survey.

164. Schwartz, Mildred A. The United States College-Educated Population: 1960. Chicago: National Opinion Research

Center, Report No. 102, October 1965.

For annotation see entry 110 on p. 44.

165. Seltzer, Norman. “Post-censal Studies Program: Background and Content,” American Statistical Association,

Proceedings o f the Social Statistics Section, 1963f 1964, pp. 175-80.

1 6 6 . _________“The 1972 Postcensal Survey o f Professional, Scientific, and Technical Manpower,” American

Statistical Association, Proceedings o f the Social Statistics Section, 1972, 1973, pp. 178-80.

167. Stambler, Howard V., and Annie Lefkowitz. “Education and Training o f Technicians,” Monthly Labor Review,

November 1964, pp. 1278-80.

168. U.S. Department o f Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Characteristics o f America's Scientists and Engineers:

1960 and 1962. Technical Paper 21, 1969.

Presents detailed national statistics on employment and economic and social characteristics of

scientists and engineers.

169. _____________________Current Population Reports, Series P-23, No. 45, “Persons in Engineering, Scientific, and

Technical Occupations: 1970 and 1972,” July 1973.

This is the first o f a series of reports on the 1972 professional, technical, and scientific manpower

survey. It presents preliminary data on employment status, age, sex, and education of persons

identified in the 1970 census as working in engineering, scientific, and technical occupations.

170. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Technician Manpower: Requirements, Resources, and

Training Needs. Bulletin 1512, 1966.

171. Warkov, Seymour, and John Marsh. The Education and Training o f America's Scientists and Engineers: 1962.

Chicago: National Opinion Research Center, Report No. 104,1965.

C. National longitudinal surveys

172. Parnes, Herbert S. “ Longitudinal Surveys: Prospects and Problems,” Monthly Labor Review, February 1972,

pp. 11-15.

Discusses the surveys and lists additional articles and reports based on survey data.

173. U.S. Department of Labor, Manpower Administration. Career Thresholds. Manpower Research Monograph No.

16, 4 vols., 1970-72.

Reports survey results for men 14-24 years of age.

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174. ________,___________Dual Careers. Manpower Research Monograph No. 21, 2 vols., 1970-72.

Reports survey results for women 30-44 years of age.

175. ________ ____________The Pre-Retirement Years. Manpower Research Monograph No. 15, 3 vols., 1970-72.

Reports survey results for males 45-59 years of age.

176. -------------, ---------------- Years for Decision. Manpower Research Monograph No. 24, 3 vols., 1971-73.

Reports survey results for women 14-24 years of age.

D. Other

177. College Placement Council, The College Graduates-Turnover and Mobility. 1970.

Followup study of 1961 graduates examining turnover rates 3 years after graduation. Study

separates men and women, different classes of employers, undergraduate majors, etc. Types of

turnover include labor market dropouts, and type of employer.

178. Day, James F. Teacher Retirement in the United States. North Quincy, Mass.: Christopher Publishing House,

1971.

A detailed investigation of retirements, job transfers, and mobility in the teaching profession.

179. Hiestand, Dale L. Career Changes: Professional and Graduate Students After Thirty-Five. New York: Columbia

University Press, 1970.

Discusses mobility in careers of graduate students at least 35 years old.

180. Lyons, Thomas F. Nursing Attitudes and Turnover, The Relation o f Social-Psychological Variables to Turnover,

Propensity to Leave and Absenteeism Among Hospital Staff Nurses. Iowa City: Iowa State University,

Industrial Relations Center, 1968.

A study o f patterns and causes of job transfers and mobility among hospital nurses.

181. National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences. Profiles o f Ph.D. ’s in Sciences - Summary Report

on Follow-up o f Doctorate Cohorts, 1935-1960. Career Patterns Report No. 1, Publication 1293,1965.

A study of a sample of 10,000 doctorate holders in health-related sciences. Studies were made o f

employer categories, the geographic spread and postdoctoral migration, and on-the-job functions.

Mobility is analyzed by geographic area, occupation, and field o f specialization.

182. Somers, Gerald. Labor Mobility: An Evaluation o f Pilot Projects in Michigan and Wisconsin. Madison:

University of Wisconsin, Industrial Relations Research Institute, 1972.

Data are given on studies done in Michigan and Wisconsin on mobility in the labor force.

Information is available by age and different occupations by major occupational group.

183. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office of Education. Teacher Turnover in Public

Elementary and Secondary Schools, 1959-60. OE-23002-60, Circular 675, 1963.

Contains turnover rates by age and sex.

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184. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Mobility and Private Pension Plans-A Study o f

Vesting, Early Retirement, and Portability Provisions. Bulletin 1407, 1964.

Statistical data concerning the effects of different pension plans on occupational mobility and job

transfers.

185. _____________________ The Operation o f Severance Pay Plans and Their Implications for Labor Mobility.

Bulletin 1462, 1966.

Provides data on the effect on severance and pension plans as deterrents to occupational mobility.

186. __________ Manpower Administration. Career Mobility for Professionals in Human Service Agencies. MDTA

Experimental and Demonstration Findings No. 8, 1969.

Lists data on different human service occupations in terms o f occupational transfers and mobility.

V. Geographic Transfers

A. I mmigration and emigration

187. American Medical Association. Foreign Medical Graduates in the United States, 1970. 1971.

Monograph presents data on specialty, activity, location, year o f graduation, country of birth, age,

and sex o f foreign physicians in the United States, by country o f graduation. Includes bibliography.

188. Grubel, H. G., and A. D. Scott. “Immigration of Scientists and Engineers to the U.S., 1949-61,” Journal o f

Political Economy, August 1969, pp. 368-78.

Brings together data from several sources in order to form a comprehensive picture of the “brain

drain” into the United States.

189. National Science Foundation. Scientists, Engineers, and Physicians from Abroad - Trends through Fiscal Year

1970. NSF 72-312, 1972.

190. _________ _ Immigrant Scientists and Engineers in the United States. A Study of Characteristics and Attitudes.

NSF 73-302, 1973.

Reports on a survey conducted by NSF in mid-1970 o f a sample of those admitted between

February 1964 and January 1969 and who filed address reports with the Immigration and

Naturalization Service in 1969.

191. North, David S., and William G. Weissert. Immigrants and the American Labor Market. Washington, D.C.:

Trans-Century Corporation, April 1973 (unpublished).

Followup data on occupations in 1972 o f immigrants entering the U.S. in fiscal year 1970.

Sponsored by Manpower Administration.

192. U.S. Department o f Health, Education, and Welfare, Health Resources Administration, Bureau of Health

Resources Development. Survey o f Foreign Nurse Applicants for Registered Nurse Licensure in the U.S.A.

Single-time survey for Bureau of Health Resources Development by American Nurses Association. In

process 1974-75.

Survey to determine the number of foreign nurse graduate applicants and the proportion of them

successfully passing State board examinations for registered licensure. Number of applicants, by

State, and data on characteristics and major obstacles to success on the examinations derived from

in-depth interviews in eight States.

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193. _________, National Institutes o f Health. The Foreign Medical Graduate: A Bibliography. DHEW Publication

No. (NIH) 73-440, November 1972.

Citations of information about foreign medical graduates in the United States, including their

education abroad, flow into the United States, and their training and utilization in the United

States. Includes only publications prior to September 1972.

B. Internal migration

194. Brown, David G. The Mobile Professors. Washington, D.C.: American Council on Education, 1967.

A study of how, where, and why college professors move within the academic labor market, based

on a survey o f 7,500 faculty members. Analyzes factors affecting mobility, including types of

institutions, salaries, race and sex discrimination, balkanization of submarkets, and job search

methods. The author presents recommendations for more effective use o f academic manpower.

195. Ladinsky, Jack. “The Geographic Mobility of Professional and Technical Manpower,” Journal o f Human

Resources, Fall 1967, pp. 475-94.

Analysis of professional worker migration based on the 1960 Census Public Use Sample suggests

that age is the most important factor affecting mobility, followed by income, education, regional

location, sex, family size, and marital status.

196. Saben, Samuel. Graphic Mobility and Employment Status, March 1962-March 1963. Special Labor Force

Report No. 44. Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 1964.

197. Sharp, Laure M., and Rebecca Krasnegor. Five Years After the College Degree, Part V', Geographic Mobility.

Washington, D.C.: Bureau of Social Science Research, 1967.

For annotation, see entry 113 on p. 45.

198. U.S. Department o f Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Census of Population: 1960, Subject Reports, Final

Report PC(2)-2B, Mobility for States and State Economic Areas, 1963.

Contains data on economic, demographic, and social characteristics, including major occupational

groups, o f the population classified by mobility status.

199. _________ ____________Census of Population: 1970, Subject Reports, Final Report PC(2)-7E, Occupation and

Residence in 1965, 1973.

Geographic mobility data for major occupational groups, comparable 1960 data are in Final Report

PC(2)-2B, Mobility for States and State Economic Areas.

VI. Entrants from Outside the Labor Force

200. American Nurses Association. The Nation's Nurses: Inventory o f Registered Professional Nurses. 1965.

Data on work activity and labor force mobility characteristics of R.N.’s.

201. National Education Association. Status o f the American Public School Teacher, 1970-71. Research Report

1972-R3, 1972.

Data on reentrants.

202. National Science Foundation. American Science Manpower. Biennial, 1954-70.

Data on work activity o f scientists in the National Register o f Scientific and Technical Personnel.

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203. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Census of Population: 1970, Subject Reports, Final

Report PC(2)-6C, Persons Not Employed, 1973.

Data on occupational characteristics of persons not in the labor force or unemployed. Comparable

1960 data in Final Report PC(2)-6C, Labor Reserve.

VII. Separations from the Labor Force and Deaths

A. Working life tables

204. Fullerton, Howard N., “A Table o f Expected Working Life for Men, 1968,” Monthly Labor Review, June 1971,

pp. 49-55.

Examines 1968 Current Population Survey data and provides estimates of expected working life for

males of various ages in 1968. Includes a note on the technical construction o f the tables.

205. U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Tables o f Working Life: Length o f Working Life for Men.

Bulletin 1001,1950.

Tables of working life for men in 1950. Includes an extensive description o f working life patterns

and a detailed exposition of the techniques used in the preparation o f tables o f working life.

206. _________ , ___________Tables o f Working Life for Women, 1950. Bulletin 1204, 1957.

207. ___________ Manpower Administration. The Length o f Working Life for Males, 1900-60, Manpower Report No.

8, July 1963.

Tables o f working life for men in 1940, 1950, and 1960.

208. _________ ,___________Work Life Expectancy and Training Needs o f Women. Report No. 12, May 1967.

Tables o f working life for women in 1960.

B. Additional information

209. Bolt, Richard H., Walter L. Kolton, and Oscar H. Levine. “Doctoral Feedback into Higher Education,” Science,

May 14, 1965, pp. 918-28.

Includes estimates o f death and separation rates developed from the National Science Foundation’s

Register.

210. Folk, Hugh and Donald E. Yett. “Methods of Estimating Occupational Attrition,” Western Economic Journal,

Vol. 6, No. 4, September 1968, pp. 297-302.

Comparison of several methods for estimating nonwage-related types o f attrition, including

age-specific occupational employment rates. Comparison of computations for nurses and engineers,

1950-56.

211. Fullerton, Howard N. “A New Type'of Working Life Table for Men,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1972, pp.

20-27.

Uses a “generation” life table in which the life spans of cohorts are followed through time, instead

of a “period” life table based on mortality rates applicable to each age observed at one point in

time. Includes tables, data sources, and technical appendix.

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2 1 2 . _________ “Sensitivity of Generation Tables of Working Life for Men to Different Projections of Labor Force

Participation,” American Statistical Association, Proceedings o f the Social Statistics Section 1972,

pp. 250-54.

213. Guralnick, Lillian. Mortality by Occupation and Industry among Men 20 to 64 Years o f Age: United States,

1950. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1962.

Death rates by occupation and industry, 1950 census industry and intermediate occupational

classifications. Useful for identifying unusual occupational and industrial mortality patterns.

2 1 4 . _________ “Occupational and Social Class Differences in Mortality,” Proceedings of the 1955 Annual

Conference, Millbank Memorial Fund, 1956, pp. 61-73.

215. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service. Mortality by Occupation and Cause

o f Death Among Men 20-64 Years o f Age: United States, 1950. Vital Statistics Special Reports, Vol. 53,

No. 3, September 1963.

Death rates by occupation and cause of death, 1950 census intermediate occupational classification.

Discussion of limitations o f the rates. Useful for identifying unusual occupational mortality

patterns.

216. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Tomorrow's Manpower Needs, Bulletin 1606, Vol. 1,

February 1969, and Supplement 4, forthcoming 1974.

Vol. 1 discusses the development o f death and separation rates, and shows rates for individual

occupations by sex in appendix A. Supplement 4 contains estimates of occupational separations for

States.

217. Wolfbein, Seymour L. Changing Patterns o f Working Life, U.S. Department o f Labor, Manpower

Administration, August, 1963.

Tables of working life for men, 1960, and summary data for women. Text discusses retirement

patterns, changes in patterns over time, and in employment and training patterns for older workers.

VIII. Occupational Earnings

218. American Chemical Society. 1972 Report on Chemists'Salaries. 1972. Annual since 1962.

Salary data reported from a comprehensive survey of ASC members, including detail by degree

status, type o f employer, sex, work activity, field, and region. Data on chemical engineers and

chemists are also reported annually in the ASC journal Chemical and Engineering News.

219. College Placement Council, Inc. Men's Salary Survey and Women's Salary Survey. Annual.

Data include high, low, and average beginning salaries in business and industry, by type of

curriculum and type of employment (industry), for recent college graduates. Data are collected

from college placement offices, covering male graduates in accounting, business, humanities-social

sciences, marketing, seven areas o f engineering, agricultural science, chemistry-math-physics, and

computer science, and female graduates in accounting, business communications, community service

work, EDP, engineering, health, home economics, libraries, mathematics, merchandising, research,

and secretarial services.

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220. Endicott, Frank S. Trends in Employment o f College and University Graduates in Business and Industry.

American Society for Personnel Administration. Annual since 1946.

Survey o f beginning monthly salaries in 185 companies representing large- and medium-sized firms

in 22 States and 20 industries. Salaries are for bachelor’s and master’s degree holders in engineering,

accounting, sales, business administration, liberal arts, production management, physics, chemistry,

mathematics, economics, and other fields.

221. Engineering Manpower Commission. Professional Income o f Engineers. New York: Engineers Joint Council.

Annual.

2 2 2 . --------------Salaries o f Engineering Technicians. New York: Engineers Joint Council. Annual.

223. Interstate Commerce Commission. Wage Statistics o f Class I Railroads in the United States, Statement No.

A-300. Annual.

224. National Education Association. Economic Status o f the Teaching Profession, 1971-72, Research Report

1972-R2, 1972. Annual by academic year since 1962-63.

Contains salary data from biennial NEA surveys and from the Office of Education. Details include

sex, size or type o f school, region, academic rank, degree, and comparisons with other occupations.

2 2 5 . ________ Faculty Salary Schedules in Colleges and Universities, 1971-72. Research Report 1972-R 10,1972.

Annual by academic year since 1967-68.

Reports mean, minimum, and maximum salaries by rank, type of institution, size of enrollment,

region, degree, and individual institution. Data are confined to 4-year institutions offering

bachelor’s or higher degrees, and are available from 1965-66.

2 2 6 . ________ Faculty Salary Schedules in Community - Junior Colleges, 1971-72. Research Report 1972-R9,

1972. Annual by acaemic year since 1967-68.

Contains data similar to that reported for colleges and universities, but confined to institutions

offering less than a bachelor’s degree.

227. National Science Foundation. American Science Manpower. Biennial 1954-70.

Reports employment, earnings, and other characteristics of persons listed in the National Register of

Scientific and Technical Personnel.

228. Professional and business associations. The following associations or periodicals conduct salary surveys for

occupations of special interest to them:

Advertising Age (magazine)

American Dental Association

American Dental Assistants Association

American Dental Hygientists Association

American Insurance Association/American Mutual Insurance Alliance

American Marketing Association

American Medical Association

American Medical Record Association

American Osteopathic Association

American Speech and Hearing Association

Business Automation, EDP Salary Survey

Flight Engineers International Association

Life Office Management Association, Actuarial Student Salary Survey

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National Association of Certified Dental Laboratories

National Farm and Power Equipment Dealers Association

Public Personnel Association, Pay Rates in Public Service

229. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Census of Population: 1970 Subject Reports, Final

Report PC(2)-7A, Occupational Characteristics, 1973.

Includes median 1969 earnings for males and females in the experienced civilian labor force as well

as employment and data on worker characteristics. Data from 1960 census are in a 1963 publication

of the same title.

230. _____________________Current Population Reports, Series P-60. Earnings by major occupation group derived

from Current Population Surveys.

231. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office of Education. Higher Education Salaries. Annual by

academic year.

Salary data by type o f institution, length of contract (e.g. 9-month and 12-month), and academic

rank.

232. --------------, __________ Statistics o f State School Systems. Annual by academic year.

Average salary levels of instructional staff in public elementary and secondary schools, by State.

233. _________, Social Security Administration. Income o f Physicians, Osteopaths, and Dentists from Private

Practice, 1965-69. DHEWPub. No. (SSA)73-11852, Staff Paper No. 12, 1972.

Compiles published data from the Internal Revenue Service on incomes o f physicians, osteopaths,

and dentists. Emphasizes trends in their income components since the advent of Medicare and

Medicaid. Data from other sources are also used to analyze comparative income trends.

234. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. Area Wage Surveys. 2 vo\s., Metropolitan Areas, United

States and Regional Summaries, and Selected Metropolitan Areas, plus separate volumes for individual

cities. Annual since 1950, various bulletins. Before Bulletin 1465 (1965-66) the series were called

Occupational Wage Surveys.

Earnings data by sex, by city, region, and U.S. for about 90 metropolitan areas, covering 76

occupations in six industry divisions. Also includes information on scheduled weekly hours, shift

differential practices, fringe benefits, and wage trends.

235. .________5_________ A Directory of Industry Wage Surveys and Union Wagesand Hours Studies. 1960-73, 1973.

Lists industries covered in the BLS wage survey program including publication titles, bulletin

numbers, and a limited description o f their content.

236. _____________________National Survey o f Administrative, Technical, and Gerical Pay. Annual since Winter

1959-60, various bulletins.

Data on salary levels and distributions for 80 occupation-work levels, including accounting, legal

services, personnel management, engineering and chemistry, buying, clerical supervisory, drafting,

and clerical jobs. Averages are shown for annual, monthly, or weekly rates, excluding overtime pay.

Data are shown for total United States, for metropolitan areas combined, for establishments of

2,500 or more, and for major industry divisions.

237. _____________________Salary Trends, including the following:

Salary Trends: City Public School Teachers, 1925-65, Bulletin 1504, 1966.

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Salary Trends: Federal Classified Employees, 1939-64, Bulletin 1444, 1965.

Salary Trends: Firemen and Policemen, 1924-64, Bulletin 1445, 1965.

Additional data, except for teachers, appear in annual Current Wage Developments. Current data for

teachers appear biennially in CWD. Data include salary levels and trends for regions and city-size

groups, as well as national data. Except for Federal workers, coverage is limited to cities of 100,000

or more. Data are compiled from various sources, including the U.S. Civil Service Commission, the

National Education Association, and the International City Management Association, firefighter and

police unions, and BLS surveys.

238. ________ ____________Union Wages and Hours. Annual since 1936 for building trades, 1950 for printing, 1946

for local transit, and 1943 for local trucking; various bulletins.

Data include averages and distributions of union scales of wages and hours by industry, region, and

city. Wage rates and wage rate indexes are shown by skill level (e.g., journeymen) as well as by

occupation. Data reflect only the wage rates set in union - management contracts, and not actual

hourly earnings.

239. U.S. Department o f Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. FAA Handbook. Annual.

240. U.S. Maritime Administration, Division o f Manpower Studies. Unpublished data on merchant marine base pay.

241. University of T exas. Survey o f Hospital and Medical School Salaries, 1970 and 1968.

IX. Analytical Studies

A. Issues in occupational and manpower analysis

242. Becker, Gary. Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education. New

York: National Bureau o f Economic Research, Columbia University Press, 1964.

Becker’s volume is one of the major works in the field of human capital economics. Education and

manpower development are treated as investments in human capital, with costs and return as criteria

for investment decisions.

243. Bezdek, Roger H., and Barry Getzel. Forecasting the Job Content and Skill Requirements o f the U.S. Economy.

Economic Research Group, Working Paper No. 10. Urbana: University of Illinois, Center for Advanced

Computation, 1972.

Examines the problem of estimating education and training requirements for specific occupations,

utilizing the Dictionary o f Occupational Titles and related research by Eckhaus (see below).

244. Bolino, August C. Occupational Education as a Source o f Economic Growth. Springfield, Va.: National

Technical Information Service, November 1972.

Surveys the history and status of all types of occupational education. Prepared for the Manpower

Administration.

245. Boulding, Kenneth E. “An Economist’s View of the Manpower Concept” in Proceedings o f the Conference on

the Utilization o f Scientific and Professional Manpower. New York: Columbia University Press, 1954, pp.

11-33.

Boulding labels the manpower concept as “repulsive, dangerous, disgusting, fascistic, communistic,

incompatible with the ideals of liberal democracy, and unsuitable company for the minds of the

young.” His vigorous attack relies on a classical “hidden hand” interpretation o f the market, and

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concludes that manpower planning will at best interfere with the market’s natural tendency toward

equilibrium. Comments summarized by Robert M. Maclver.

246. Bowles, Samuel. Migration as Investment: Empirical Tests o f the Human Investment Approach to Geographical

Mobility. Discussion Paper No. 51. Cambridge: Harvard University, Program on Regional and Urban

Economics, 1969 (mimeo).

A simple migration model, tested with data on net migration from the U.S. South for 1955-60,

supports the hypothesis that geographic mobility is primarily a response to economic incentives, and

therefore is consistent with the human capital approach to analysis.

247. Bowman, Mary Jean. “Educational Shortage and Excess,” Canadian Journal o f Economics and Political Science,

November 1963, pp. 446-61.

Bowman reviews traditional rising prices, relative income, and status approaches to identifying

manpower shortage and excess, as well as the more recent rate-of-return approach, emphasizing their

normative as well as economic content. She concludes that shortage and excess have no valid

meaning unless social costs and returns are considered, and that the most reliable indicators of

imbalances are to be found by examining the allocation processes themselves. A brief digression on

the situation for teachers is included.

248. Eckaus, R. S. “Economic Criteria for Education and Training,” Review o f Economics and Statistics, May 1964,

pp. 181-90.

Eckaus criticizes the rate-of-return approach to developing economic criteria for educational

planning. He then proposes an alternative method o f computing educational requirements using

estimates from the Dictionary o f Occupational Titles o f education and training requirements by

occupation, and projections of occupational employment needs.

249. Fine, Sidney A. “A Re-examination of Transferability of Skills,” 2 parts, Monthly Labor Review, July 1957, pp.

803-10; and August 1957, pp. 938-48.

Part I examines the assumptions and concepts involved in skill transferability and reviews earlier

research. Part II draws upon occupational classification o f the U.S. Employment Service to provide

guidelines for a systematic approach to the study of transferability of skill.

250. Hansen, W. Lee. “The Economics o f Scientific and Engineering Manpower,” Journal o f Human Resources,

Spring 1967, pp. 191-220.

Hansen attempts to define some o f the issues in the discussion of “shortages” by surveying the

various positions taken, alternative approaches to research, and the analytical efforts o f economists.

He then explores in more detail the projection approach, and proposes a rate-of-return approach to

analyzing occupational supply and identifying shortages and surpluses. Comment by David Brown

and Claus A. Moser.

251. __________ “Labor Force and Occupational Projections,” in Proceedings o f the 18th Annual Winter Meeting.

Madison: Industrial Relations Research Association, 1966.

Hansen reviews and critiques the various types and uses of projections, emphasizing the need for

supply projections to make the requirements estimates more meaningful. He contends that what is

most needed is not more projections but more research on occupational choice and the operation o f

the labor market.

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2 5 2 . _________ “Total and Private Rates of Return to Investment in Schooling,” Journal o f Political Economy,

April 1963, pp. 128-40.

Hansen discusses rate of return as an empirical measure of shortages.

253. Hollister, R. G. “The Economics of Manpower Forecasting,” International Labour Review, April 1964, pp.

371-97.

Hollister presents a theoretical analysis of certain aspects of manpower forecasting, in particular the

use of present occupational distribution in forecasting, and the effects of supply and technological

factors on the occupational distribution.

254. Kotz, Arnold, ed. Occupational Education: Planning and Programming. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research

Institute, 1967. 2 volumes.

This work reviews new approaches to planning and programming occupational education, with

major emphasis on PPB. Contains articles by Garth Mangum, Norman Medvin, Thayne Robson, and

others. Prepared for the U.S. Office of Education.

255. March, Georgianna B., ed. Conference on Occupational Data Requirements for Educational Planning. Madison:

University o f Wisconsin, Center for Studies in Vocational and Technical Education, 1966. Summarized in

Journal o f Human Resources, Summer 1966, pp. 54-66.

^The conference gave voice to two distinctive schools of thought. The first felt the need for

occupational data was urgent and stressed its availability as a prerequisite to intelligent planning.

The second denied the usefulness of such data, emphasizing weak methodologies and problems

inherent in obtaining accurate job vacancy data.

256. Mestre, Elroy R. Economic Minorities in Manpower Development. Lexington, Mass.: Heath Lexington Books,

1971.

Chapter 2 reviews problems o f manpower development in the American economy such as the level

of economic activity and economic security, with emphasis on mobility and minorities. Mestre

presents good arguments for the usefulness of manpower policy for eliminating or offsetting market

imperfections, structural imbalances, adverse effects of cutbacks, and promoting economic security.

257. Miller, Ann R. Current Occupation and Past Training o f Adult Workers, Statistical Evaluation Report No. 7,

Bureau of the Budget, March 1968 (mimeo).

Analyzes unpublished data from the April 1963 Current Population Survey. Examines the feasibility

o f collecting data on the relationship of training and occupation, for improving supply projections

and studying changing occupational structures. Prepared for the Interagency Committee on

Occupational Classification.

258. Stigler, George. “The Economics of Information,” Journal o f Political Economy. June 1961; and “Information

in the Labor Market,” Jo urnal o f Political Economy, Supplement, October 1962.

Stigler examines the relationship between labor market information and career choice.

259. Strauss, George. “Apprenticeship: An Evaluation of the Needs,” in Arthur M. Ross, e d Employment Policy

and the Labor Market. Berkeley : University of California Press, 1965.

Evaluates the data on apprenticeship and examines concepts such as the problem o f defining who is

an apprentice.

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260. Young, Robert C., William V. Clive, and Benton E. Miles, Vocational Education Planning: Manpower Priorities

and Dollars. Columbus: The Ohio State University, Center for Vocational and Technical Education, 1972.

This volume discusses the role of supply-demand data in manpower and vocational education

planning. Includes bibliography.

B. Studies of individual occupations and occupational groups

261. Altman, Stuart H. The Present and Future Supply o f Registered Nurses. DHEW Publication No.(NIH)72-134.

U.S. Department o f Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service, 1971.

Altman presents an extensive discussion of the changing market for nurses during the post war

years. He examines the breakdown of some noncompetitive characteristics of the hospital industry,

the decline o f hospital nursing schools and the growth of associate degree programs, rising nurse

salaries, unionization, and increased mobility of female workers. He derives a model of nursing

supply from models of family labor supply and aggregate labor supply of women. Projections of

future supply are included.

262. Altman, Stuart H., and Alan Fechter. “The Supply o f Military Personnel in the Absence of a Draft,” American

Economic Review, May 1967, pp. 19-31.

The article summarizes methods used to estimate the cost of replacing drafted personnel with an

all-volunteer force. Factors affecting the level of enlistments are analyzed, including civilian

unemployment and draft pressure. The effect of increased pay on volunteer accessions to the Armed

Forces is analyzed for enlistees and officers. Elasticities are computed and used to estimate payroll

costs o f a volunteer force.

263. Alchain, A. A., K. J. Arrow, and W. M. Capron. An Economic Analysis o f the Market for Scientists and

Engineers. Chicago: Rand McNally, 1958.

The authors review various concepts of shortages and present an extensive analysis o f the market for

scientists and engineers, including such issues as R&D contracting practices, government

employment policies, and “stocking” o f high-skill personnel by firms. Long- and short-term supply

problems are discussed in relation to salary and noneconomic factors influencing students’

enrollments and completion o f training.

264. American Council on Education. “A New Look at the Supply of College Teachers,” Educational Record,

Summer 1965.

265. Arrow, Kenneth J., and William M. Capron. “Dynamic Shortages and Price Rises: the Engineer Scientist Case,”

Quarterly Journal o f Economics, May 1959, pp. 292-308.

Persistent shortages o f engineers and scientists in the 1950’s in spite o f increasing salaries were often

interpreted as a failure of the price mechanism. Arrow and Capron argue that the price mechanism

did not fail, but simply did not adjust quickly enough to meet the continually expanding demand

for scientists and engineers. They present a model of dynamic shortages to explain the market

phenomena o f the 1950’s-simultaneous rising salaries and “shortage” conditions. Much of the

paper is taken from Alchain, Arrow, and Capron, 1958.

266. Bayer, Alan E. “Nurse Supply: It’s Better than We Thought,” The Modern Hospital, July 1967.

Bayer contends that the elasticity of labor force participation for inactive R. N.’s could be increased

by providing more flexible hours and improved working conditions.

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267. Benham, Lee. “The Labor Market for Registered Nurses: A Three-Equation Model,” Review o f Economics and

Statistics, August 1971, pp. 246-52.

Benham explores the factors influencing the numbers o f employed registered nurses and their

earnings across states. The simple model includes one structural equation for demand, one for labor

force participation, and one for geographic location. Results are of limited usefulness because of

poor data.

268. Bishop, Christine E. “Manpower Policy and the Supply of Nurses ” Industrial Relations, February 1973, pp.

86-94.

Bishop explores the potential for short-run expansion of the supply of nurses. A model is

constructed which estimates the elasticity o f the labor force participation of nurses with respect to

salary, and is tested on a large cross-section sample of married nurses in Massachusetts. Regression

analysis produces positive but small estimates of elasticity. Bishop applies familiar techniques of

labor force participation analysis, such as comparing salaries to “wages” earned from housework in

the area o f occupational labor force participation.

269. Blank, David, and George Stigler. The Demand and Supply o f Scientific and Technical Personnel New York:

National Bureau o f Economic Research, 1957.

Blank and Stigler conclude that no significant shortage of engineers and scientists occurred during

the postwar period. A shortage is said to occur when the supply of workers increases less rapidly

than the number demanded at salaries paid in the recent past. The authors rely primarily on

comparisons of earnings of engineers with earnings of other professional groups.

270. Bognanno, Mario F., Mahmood A. Zaidi, and Jesse S. Hixon. The Married Women's Supply o f Labor: A

Microstudy o f the Professional Nurse. Minneapolis: Industrial Relations Center, University o f Minnesota,

February 1972.

Estimates the elasticities o f labor supply o f married nurses with respect to wages and husband’s

income. Based on a limited sample o f nurses in Iowa in 1968.

271. Bumas, Lester 0 . “Engineering Occupational Choice, 1950-1965,” Industrial Relations, February 1970, pp.

231-42.

Bumas challenges the conventional economic interpretation of relative earnings as a major

determinant o f occupational choice. He contends that employment opportunity is the primary

explanatory variable and illustrates the hypothesis with regression analysis o f engineering students

for 1950-65.

272. Cain, Glen, and W. Lee Hansen. Occupations o f Engineers: Economic Aspects. Madison: University of

Wisconsin, Social Systems Research Institute, January 1967 (unpublished).

273. _____________________ and Richard B. Freeman. Labor Market Analysis of Engineers and Technical Workers.

Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1973.

Analysis of supply, demand, and utilization of engineers and technicians, including reviews of

several types o f supply models and use o f cost-benefit analysis and projections in policy

decisionmaking.

274. Cartter, Alan. “The Supply of and Demand for College Teachers,” Journal of Human Resources, Summer 1966,

pp. 22-38.

Cartter takes issue with those who feared a crisis in higher education because of shortages o f Ph.D.

level personnel and deteriorating quality of faculty. He argues that the quality of faculty actually

improved during 1955-65, and that the “shortages” or sellers’ market among Ph.D.’s would

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disappear shortly after 1966. The article summarizes the events of the previous 10 years, and

presents a growth model for projecting supply and demand to 1985. The model includes

independent projections of enrollments, development of replacement needs estimates and

faculty-student ratios, estimates of production of doctorates, and doctorates entering college

teaching.

275. Committee on the National Science Foundation Report on the Economics Profession. The Structure o f

Economists' Employment and Salaries, 1964. American Economic Review, Supplement, December 1965.

This analysis of the economics profession based on NSF Register data gives particular attention to

the problems of occupational definition and the relationship between education and salary. Rates of

return are not calculated.

276. Deane, R. T. Simulating an Econometric Model of the Market for Nurses. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation,

University of California at Los Angeles, 1971.

277. Fein, Rashi. The Doctor Shortage: An Economic Diagnosis. Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1967.

Fein analyzes the demand for physicians’ services and the supply of physicians, emphasizing the

problems of defining a shortage and measuring and pricing medical services. Fie examines difficulties

o f applying economic analysis where profit maximization is not the only or the primary goal of the

physician or patient.

278. Folger, John, Helen S. Astin, and Alan E. Bayer. Human Resources and Higher Education, Staff Report of the

Commission on Human Resources and Advanced Education. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1970.

This volume reviews the supply and demand situation for many degree fields, concentrating on

degrees conferred and deaths and retirements. Includes discussion of difficulties in planning and

implementing effective manpower and educational policy.

279. Folk, Hugh. “Another Look at the Shortage of Engineers and Scientists,” unpublished Working Paper No. 6512

for the Department o f Economics. St. Louis: University of Missouri, September 1964.

280. __________ The Shortage o f Scientists and Engineers. Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath and Co., 1970.

281. Franke, Walter, and Irvin Sobel. The Shortage o f Skilled and Technical Workers. Lexington, Mass.: Heath

Lexington Books, 1970.

The authors discuss conflicting views on the concept of shortages and present supply analysis for six

craft and technical occupations in St. Louis and Chicago.

282. Freeman, Richard B. “Engineers and Scientists in the Industrial Economy.” Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard

University, 1971,m im eo.

Freeman examines three aspects of change in industrial economies: 1) the contribution o f scientific

manpower to the rate and nature of change, 2) the impact of change on the labor market, and 3) the

determination of the number of persons devoted to scientific-technical change. He presents factual

and theoretical structures for analysis including models of research and development activity and

the operation o f the labor market under conditions of change.

2 8 3 . _________ The Market for College-Trained Manpower, A Study in the Economics o f Career Choice. Cambridge,

Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1971.

Freeman uses traditional price theory to develop econometric models of the postwar market for

college-trained manpower, and tests the models for accounting, business administration,

mathematics, chemistry, and engineering. He concludes that 1) career decisions are substantially

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influenced by economic incentives, 2) salaries are determined by the intersection of supply and

demand curves with time lags, 3) changes in the market are explained by two adjustment or

feedback models, and 4) the university system responds to market incentives by creating the

necessary training opportunities.

284. Friedman, Milton, and Simon Kuznets. Income from Professional Practice. New York: National Bureau of

Economic Research, Publication No. 45, 1945.

This volume is an early study o f career choice and labor markets. The authors present empirical

analyses of the medical professions, with special concern for the potential for monopolistically

induced shortages because o f restricted medical school enrollments.

285. Hansen, W. Lee. “The Economics o f Scientific and Engineering Manpower,” Journal o f Human Resources,

Spring 1967, pp. 191-220.

For annotation, see entry 250.

286. _______ “Educational Plans and Teacher Supply,” Comparative Education Review, October 1962, pp.

136-41.

Hansen discusses why American and British teacher forecasts have gone wrong and reviews the

factors influencing changes in the demand and supply o f teachers.

287. __________“The Shortage o f Engineers,” Review o f Economics and Statistics, August 1961, pp. 251-56.

2 8 8 . _________ “Shortages and Investment in Health Manpower,” in The Economics o f Health and Medical Care,

Proceedings of a Conference on the Economics of Health and Medical Care, May 1962, Ann Arbor, Mich.:

The University of Michigan, 1965.

Hansen’s article is one of the first to use rate-of-return evidence to analyze shortages of qualified

manpower, in this case physicians and dentists. He compares rates of return between 1939 and

1956, showing that the shortage of doctors and dentists has declined since 1949.

289. Harris, Seymour. The Market for College Graduates. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1949.

Harris argues that the United States would face an excess of college trained manpower during the

1950’s resulting from the tremendous increase in college enrollments after the war. Includes

extensive documentation and supporting statistics.

290. Hurd, Richard W. “Equilibrium Vacancies in a Labor Market Dominated by Non-Profit Firms: The Shortage of

Nurses,” Review o f Economics and Statistics, May 1973, pp. 234-40.

Hurd’s statistical tests of the oligopsony explanation of the shortage of nurses find supportive

results from three data sources: the 1960 Census and the 1960 and 1966 BLS Hospital surveys.

Equations are presented and policy implications discussed.

291. Kehrer, Barbara H. The Nursing Shortage and Public Policy-An Economic Analysis o f the Demand of Hospital

Nurses in Connecticut. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Yale University, 1970.

292. Kershaw, Joseph A., and Roland N. McKean. Teacher Shortages and Salary Schedules. New York: McGraw Hill

Inc., 1962.

293. Klarman, Herbert E. The Economics o f Health. New York: Columbia University Press, 1965.

This volume is a thorough introduction to the field o f health economics. Chapters are included on

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the supply o f health personnel and on issues related to the economics of education, as well as a

comprehensive bibliography.

294. Klarman, Herbert E., ed. Empirical Studies in Health Economics. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1970.

This volume includes Stuart Altman’s “The Structure of Nursing Education and its Impact on

Supply,” Donald Yett’s “The Chronic Shortage of Nurses: A Public Policy Dilemma,” and other

studies.

295. Lewin, David. “Wage Parity and the Supply of Policemen and Firemen,” Industrial Relations, February 1973,

pp. 77-85.

Lewin presents a nonstatistical comparison o f the duties and costs of hiring policemen and firemen

in Los Angeles County. He recommends removal of the parity policy, i.e., equal starting salaries, in

order to increase flexibility in hiring policemen.

296. Mack, Donald R. A Model o f the Supply and Demand for Engineers. Schenectady, New York: General Electric

Company, 1973.

Presents a feedback model of demand, enrollment/attrition, and unemployment of graduate

engineers, using a system o f algebraic and first-order differential equations.

297. Matilla, J. Peter. The Impact o f Extending Minimum Wages to Private Household Workers. RF Project 3270,

Final Report. Columbus: The Ohio State University, Research Foundation, October 1971.

In a study for the Manpower Administration, Matilla estimates the elasticity of demand for private

household workers with respect to wages and family income, and o f supply in respect to wages and

alternative job opportunities. Estimates are then used to measure the impact of alternative minimum

wage levels. Analysis is based on a cross-section of metropolitan areas, using data from the National

Longitudinal Surveys.

298. Meyers, Raymond, O.D. “Optometric Manpower: An Analysis of the Supply,” Journal o f the American

Optometric Association, November 1971, pp. 1135-39.

Meyers projects requirements for optometrists until 1980 based on estimates of current supply,

attrition, and projected annual graduates during the 1970’s. An optimal ratio of optometrists to

population is assumed.

299. National Education Association. “Teacher Supply and Demand in Degree-Granting Institutions,” NEA Research

Bulletin, December 1955.

3 0 0 . _________ Teacher Supply and Demand in Public Schools. Annual reports by the NEA Research Division since

1947.

Reports analyze the supply and demand conditions for elementary and secondary teachers in public

education, and include special analyses of topics such as varying teacher status by type of school,

supply o f beginning teachers, and the supply of qualified former teachers.

301. National Research Council, National Academy o f Sciences. The Life Sciences. 1970.

Discusses the nature o f the life sciences, research progress and applications, and the nature and

materials o f the life scientists’ work. Examines the process of educating new scientists. Statistical

information is based on a survey of over 12,000 research life scientists,.

302. -------------------------------Physics in Perspective. 2 vols., 1973.

Reports on the status, opportunities, and problems of the physics profession in the United States.

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Vol. I discusses the nature o f physics and its subfields, research priorities and sources of support,

and education; Chapter 12 presents an analysis of physics manpower supply and utilization. Vol. II,

Part A, discusses the content of research topics; Part B discusses astrophysics and relativity,

including a chapter on manpower; and Part C is a compendium of data used in the rest of the report.

303. National Science Foundation. The Long-Range Demand for Scientific and Technical Personnel', A

Methodological Study. Prepared by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1961.

This study presents quantitative projections of the demand for scientists and engineers, with special

reference to the chemical and electrical industries. Methods for projecting supply are discussed and

measures are proposed to close the gap between expected demand and supply.

3 0 4 . __________Scientists, Engineers, and Technicians in the 1960’s: Requirements and Supply. NSF-63-34,

1963.

Projections are updated, using methodology from an earlier NSF publication. Policies for improving

utilization o f manpower and for training are discussed as remedies for projected excess demand.

305. New York State Department o f Labor, Division o f Research and Statistics. Manpower in Selected Metal Crafts

in New York State. Part I, The State-wide Picture, Part II, Area Data. Publication No. B-107, January

1959.

Survey o f existing and future manpower supplies and requirements in metalworking occupations.

Includes analysis o f employment, personal characteristics, and training sources.

306. _____________________Technical Manpower in New York State. 2 vols. Special Bulletin 239, December 1964.

Results of a survey to ascertain personal and skill characteristics o f science and engineering

technicians, sources o f workers, education and experience requirements, and employment. Vol. I

presents summary information, with appendix tables and projections in supplements A and B

respectively. Vol. II presents detailed data for each of 15 occupations.

307. Porter, R. C. “A Growth Model Forecast o f Faculty Size and Salaries in U.S. Higher Education,” Review o f

Economics and Statistics, May 1965, pp. 191-97.

Porter applies the Harrod growth model borrowed from economic development theory to explain

the expansion of higher education. Faculties are treated as capital-input, and as an input produced

by higher education itself. He concludes that the strain of faculty expansion during the 1960’s will

automatically reduce the strain during the 1970’s, and possibly produce a slack thereafter. Salaries

are also analyzed.

308. President’s Science Advisory Committee. “Meeting Manpower Needs in Science and Technology,” December 12,

1962.

This report points out shortages of engineering, mathematics, and physics personnel, and calls for

Federal action. A grants policy is discussed as a means o f channeling graduate students into areas of

high national priority.

309. Schacter, G., B. Cohen, and H. Goldstein, “The Demand and Supply of College Teachers of Economics,

1969-1970,“ American Economist, Spring, 1972.

310. Sharp, Laure M. Education and Employment. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1970.

Sharp analyzes the qualitative as well as quantitative effects o f the expansion o f higher education.

Relying on National Science Foundation data, Two Years After the College Degree, she examines

the relationship o f occupation to field and type of degree. The data show reinforcement of basic

trends such as early specialization and occupational choice, high level of occupational stability, and

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the tendency o f women to become teachers regardless o f major. Separate analyses are presented for

women and blacks.

311. Sloan, Frank. “Lifetime Earnings and Physicians, Choice of Specialty,” Industrial and Labor Relations Review,

October 1970, pp. 47-56.

Sloan finds little relationship between earnings and physicians’ choice of specialties over general

practice.

312. Stewart, Charles T., Jr., and Corazon M. Siddayao. Increasing the Supply of Medical Personnel: Needs and

Alternatives. Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1973.

This study considers medical personnel shortages and ways to relieve these shortages. Chapters

include discussions of legislation intended to increase medical manpower supplies, causes of

shortages, especially in relation to Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance; questions of

geographic distribution and utilization; and policy recommendations.

313. U.S. Department o f Health, Education, and Welfare, Office of Education. Library Manpower-Occupational

Characteristics o f Public and School Librarians, OE-15061, 1966.

314. _______ _ Public Health Service. Ophthalmology Manpower: A General Profile, United States, 1968. Vital

Statistics Series 14, No. 5, DHEW Publication No. (HSM) 73-1800,1972.

315. _____________________ Opticians Employed in Health Services, United States, 1969. Vital Health Statistics

Series 14, No. 3, DHEW Publication No. (HSM)72-1051, 1972.

316. _________, ___________Physicians for a Growing America. Report of the Surgeon General’s Consultant Group

on Medical Education, Publication No. 709, October 1959.

317. U.S. Department of Labor. 1970 Manpower Report o f the President, “Manpower Demand and Supply in

Professional Occupations,” 1970.

Analyzes the effects of postwar birth rates and trends in education and labor force participation on

the demand and supply of professionals in general, and scientists, teachers, and health manpower in

particular.

318. _________, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. Library Manpower-A Study o f Requirements and Supply. Forthcoming

1974.

The primary objectives of this study were the identification and analysis o f factors having the

greatest bearing on determining manpower requirements, projections of requirements by

employment setting, and analysis o f supply.

319. _________,___________Technician Manpower: Requirements, Resources, and Training Needs. Bulletin 1512,

1966.

This report presents the results of a comprehensive study o f current and future technician

manpower conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics with the support of the National Science

Foundation. Emphasis is placed on the ways in which persons are trained for technician jobs, and on

the projected supply and demand for these workers. Extensive information also is presented on the

personal and educational characteristics of technicians and the nature of their work.

320. -----------------Technician Manpower 1966-1980. Bulletin 1639, 1970.

This report updates the earlier BLS study, and incorporates new data and methods. Data gaps and

weaknesses and directions for future research are discussed.

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321. Wool, Harold, and Bruce D. Phillips. The Labor Supply for Lower Level Occupations: Interim Report.

Washington, D.C.: National Planning Association, October 1973.

Examines the hypothesis that a variety of demographic and social forces have contributed to a sharp

reduction in the traditional sources of workers for lower level jobs. The study includes a system for

ranking occupations, analysis of 1960-70 trends in occupational labor supply, and projections. The

second stage of the report, forthcoming in 1974, will present analysis o f individual occupations.

322. Yett, Donald E. “The Supply o f Nurses: An Economist’s View,” Hospital Progress, February 1965, pp. 88-102.

323. Zerfoos, Evelyn, and Leo Shapiro. The Supply and Demand o f Teachers. Lincoln, Neb.: Nebraska Curriculum

Development Center, February 1973.

C. Methods of analysis

324. Folk, Hugh, and Donald Yett. “Methods of Estimating Occupational Attrition,” Western Economic Journal,

Vol. 6, No. 4., September 1968, pp. 297-302.

Comparison o f several methods for estimating nonwage-related types of attrition, including

age-specific occupational employment rates. Comparison o f computations for nurses and engineers.

325. Goldstein, Harold. “Methods o f Projecting Supply and Demand in High-Level Occupations,” paper presented to

Panel on Human Resources and Advanced Education, American Statistical Association, September 1965.

Bureau of Labor Statistics (mimeo).

A brief review o f methods, and statement of data uses and research needs. Bibliography.

3 2 6 . _________Methods o f Forecasting Demand for and Supply o f Scientists and Engineers: Final Report. Paris:

Organization for European Economic Cooperation, 1958.

3 2 7 . _________“Projections o f Manpower Requirements and Supply,” in “A Symposium: Manpower Projections,”

Industrial Relations, May 1966.

Reviews BLS projections procedures, and points out areas needing research, including mobility,

base-year supply measurement, wage elasticity, and information on specific training.

328. Gramm, Wendy Lee. “The Labor Force Decision of Married Female Teachers: A Discriminant Analysis

Approach,” R eview o f Economics and Statistics, August 1973, pp. 341-48.

This study uses the discriminant analysis technique, i.e., classification o f individuals into mutually

exclusive and exhaustive groups, to study the supply of women for full- and part-time teaching

positions.

329. Jaffe, A. J., and R. 0 . Carleton. Occupational Mobility in the United States, 1930-1960. New York: King’s

Crown Press, Columbia University, 1954.

This study uses age-cohort analysis and a residual methodology to estimate net occupational

mobility o f adult civilian males 1930-50 and to project mobility to 1960.

330. Laslett, R. E. A Survey o f Mathematical Methods o f Estimating Supply and Demand for Manpower. Occasional

Paper No. 1. London: Engineering Training Board, 1972.

Reviews types o f mathematical models, including input/output, regression, and others.

Bibliography.

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331. McKinlay, Bruce, and Lowell E. Johnson. Forecasting Occupational Supply: A Methodological Handbook.

Eugene: Oregon Department of Employment, Research and Statistics Division, Manpower Research

Project. February 1969.

Discusses the various components of supply, and develops methods for quantifying these

components. Includes a systematic procedure for assessing the adequacy and changing personal

characteristics o f the total labor supply, and methods for estimating supply from “general

education” programs, high school and college dropouts, military returnees, and geographic migrants.

332. Morton, J. E. Handbook for Community Manpower Surveys. Methods for Manpower Analysis, No. 5.

Kalamazoo: W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 1972.

A step-by-step guide for conducting local manpower surveys.

333. Norton, John Herbert. Accuracy Analysis for Projections o f Manpower in Metropolitan Areas. Washington,

D.C.: George Washington University, 1967.

Discusses forecasting accuracy, with illustrations o f forecasts for 12 metropolitan areas.

Bibliography.

334. O’Connell, John F. “The Labor Market for Engineers: An Alternative Methodology,” Journal o f Human

Resources, Winter 1972, pp. 71-86.

Separate supply and demand equations indicate that relative wage elasticity of demand is not a

significant determinant of engineering employment though, with minor exceptions, research and

development expenditures are. The supply of engineers tends to be responsive to absolute wage

differences. Equations are ordinary and two-stage least squares regressions with relative employment

as the dependent variable.

335. Parnes, Herbert S. Research on Labor Mobility: An Appraisal o f Research Findings in the United States. New

York: Social Science Research Council, Bulletin 65, 1954.

Discusses conceptual and methodological problems in classifying and measuring labor mobility.

336. Podesta, Edward A. Supply and Demand Factors Affecting Vocational Education Planning, A Methodological

Study in Santa Clara County, California. Menlo Park: Stanford Research Institute, October 1966.

Discusses methods for inventorying the supply of vocational education teachers, and estimates the

influence of instructional and personnel policies on the size and quality of teacher manpower

resources.

337. Rosenthal, Neal. “Projections of Manpower Supply in a Specific Occupation,” Monthly Labor Review,

November 1966, pp. 1262-66.

Discusses methods o f calculating supply projections, including illustrative projections of scientists

and engineers.

338. Shyrock, Henry S., and Jacob S. Siegel. The Methods and Materials o f Demography. 2 vols., U.S. Department of

Commerce, 1971.

An exposition of the methods o f collecting, classifying, and handling demographic data. Volume 1

deals with sources o f data on population, size, distribution, and composition; Volume 2 discusses

population dynamics (births, deaths, marriages, migration/mobility), and estimation and projection

techniques.

339. Wolfe, Dael. “Forecasting Surpluses and Shortages in Key Occupations,” American Academy of Political and

Social Science, Annals, September 1959, pp. 29-37.

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