## G e neral Serv i ce Fluorescent Lam p and Incandescent Reflec tor March 1 0

- 1 1 , 2008 L am p Ener g yConserv ati onStandard ANO P R Public Meetin g



# Energ yCo nservation Standards for General S e rvice Fluorescent Lamps and Incandescent Reflector Lamps ANOPR Public Meeting NOPR Anal yses and Next Steps
Buildi ng Te c hnolo g ie s Prog ra m Office o fEn er g yEfficien c y an d Ren e w a ble En erg y U.S. De pa rtme nt of Ene r gy
March 10-1 1 , 2008

NOPR A n al y ses and Nex t S t eps 

## NOPR A n al yses F l o w Diagram

Ma n u f a c tu re r

Impact An a l ys i s Ut ilit y Impact An a l y s i s Tr i a l St andard Lev e l s Re v i se AN O P R A n al y ses En v i ronmen t a l A s sessment Regul a t o r y Impact An a l y s i s Empl oy ment

Impact An a l y s i s LC C Subgroup An a l y s i s

2

## G e neral Serv i ce Fluorescent Lam p and Incandescent Reflec tor March 1 0

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AN O P R R e vi s i o n s 

## Revise ANOPR Anal yses A N OP R A n al ysis Ac t i o n Engineeri ng A n al y s is • Consider A N OP R com m en ts
• Re v i se usi ng la t est da ta Li fe-C y c le Cos t and Pa y b ack Perio d A n al y ses • Consider A N OP R com m en ts
• Re v i se usi ng la t est da ta
• Conduc t LCC S ub- G r oup A n al y s is Natio n al I m pac t A n al y s is • Consider A N OP R com m en ts
• Re v i se usi ng la t est da ta

3

NOPR A n al y ses and Nex t S t eps 

## NOPR A n al yses F l o w Diagram

Ma n u f a c tu re r

Impact An a l ys i s Ut ilit y Impact An a l y s i s Tr i a l St andard Lev e l s Re v i se AN O P R A n al y ses En v i ronmen t a l A s sessment Regul a t o r y Impact An a l y s i s Empl oy ment

Impact An a l y s i s LC C Subgroup An a l y s i s

4

## G e neral Serv i ce Fluorescent Lam p and Incandescent Reflec tor March 1 0

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Trial Stan dard L e v e ls 

## Selectio n o fTrial Sta n dard L evels  Purpos e 

# • T o develop a li st of standard levels from w h i c h impacts are w e ig hed a nd a propos ed sta ndard l e vel is s e lected

– E ach trial standard level consists of a se t of candidate standa rd levels

covering all product classe s, and ma y var ybe tw ee n product classe s

– N OPR anal y s es assess impacts for t r ial standard levels (not produc t classes) 

###  Me thod 

# • T r ial standard l e vels are ass e mbled from the product classe s and candi date stan dards id ent ifie d in the ANOPR

– C andidate standard levels cover a range of efficie n cie s and can in clude:

 Most ene rg y ef ficient leve l (max te ch)

 Effici ency level with the low e st life
- c y cle cost

 Efficiency levels w i th note w o rth y t e chnolog ie s
 Effici ency levels that fill in large gaps betw een candidate standard level s

– E ach trial standard level consists ofthe candidate standard level fro m each

product class that mee t s one o f th e above criteria 5

Trial Stan dard L e v e ls 

## Trial Stan d a rd Levels

 A critical part of the NOPR a n al y s is on w h ich DOE is se eking early guida nc e a n d input .  Tria l s t a nda rd lev e ls are c r ea te d from c o mbina t ions ofc a ndida te standard lev e l s at a product class le v e l.  Based around a consistent t h eme, such as lo w est life-c ycle cost.



## DOE reques ts feedbac k o n the crit e r

ia

it should us e fo r basing the selection of Trial S t an d a r

d

L e ve ls . ( I ss u e #1 3)

6

## G e neral Serv i ce Fluorescent Lam p and Incandescent Reflec tor March 1 0

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NOPR A n al y ses and Nex t S t eps 

## NOPR A n al yses F l o w Diagram

Ma n u f a c tu re r

Impact An a l ys i s Ut ilit y Impact An a l y s i s Tr i a l St andard Lev e l s Re v i se AN O P R A n al y ses En v i ronmen t a l A s sessment Regul a t o r y Impact An a l y s i s Empl oy ment

Impact An a l y s i s LC C Subgroup An a l y s i s

7

Li fe-C y c le Cos t Subgroup A n al y s is 

## LCC Su bgroup Anal y s is  Purpos e 

# • To evaluate the economic impacts of st anda rds o n consumer subg roups w ho ma y be disproportionately impacted c o mpared w i th the general userpo pulation 

###  Pote ntia l s u b g roups 

# • The LCC Analy s is includes the abilit y to e x amine impacts of consumers:

– O pe rating lamps in a variet y o fse ctors (e.g ., resid ential, commercial, industria l)

– O pe rating lamps in a variet y o fbuild ing t y pes (e.g ., mobile home, vs. educationa l facility)

– R eplacing d i ffere nt baseline lamps or lamp -and-ba llast sy ste m s (e. g ., T8 vs.

T12 baseline sy s t em )

– S ubje c t to a variet y of purchasing events (e .g. , la mp failure, ballast failure) 

# • DOE ma y also consider analy z in g the impacts o flow-income consumers. 

## DOE welcom es commen t on how LCC inputs m ay ch ange fo r each consum er subgrou p. 8

## G e neral Serv i ce Fluorescent Lam p and Incandescent Reflec tor March 1 0

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NOPR A n al y ses and Nex t S t eps 

## NOPR A n al yses F l o w Diagram

Ma n u f a c tu re r

Impact An a l ys i s Ut ilit y Impact An a l y s i s Tr i a l St andard Lev e l s Re v i se AN O P R A n al y ses En v i ronmen t a l A s sessment Regul a t o r y Impact An a l y s i s Empl oy ment

Impact An a l y s i s LC C Subgroup An a l y s i s

9

Manu fact urer I m pac t A n a l y s is 

## Ma nu facturer Impact Anal y s is
 Purpose 

# • To assess the financia l impacts a nd ot he r quantita t ive and qualitative industr y impacts of stand ards on manufac ture rs o f gene ral service florescen t lamps ( G SFL ) and incandescen t reflectorlamps (IRL ) 

# • To identif y and e s timate impacts on manuf actu re r sub-groups that ma y be mo re severely impacte d than the industry as a w hole 

# • To exa m ine the impact of cumulat i ve regulatory bu rdens on the industry  Method 

# • Analy z e industry cash flowand ne t p r esent value t h rough use o f th e Governmen t Regulatory Impa ct Model ( G R I M ) 

# • Inte rviewmanu fa cture r s to refine input s to the GR I M , develop sub-g r oup anal y s es, and address qualitative issue s  Ou tp ut 

# • Industr y Ne t P r e s ent Value impacts 

# • Sub-group Ne t P r esent Value impacts 

# • Otherimpacts 10l Engine ering Ana l y s is LCC Analy s is Nationa l Energ y Sav i l s is Consumer Subgr oup Util ity Impac ts Environmental I m pacts

Indirect Emplo y ment ts 

## G e neral Serv i ce Fluorescent Lam p and Incandescent Reflec tor March 1 0

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Manu fact urer I m pac t A n a l y s is 

## Ma nu facturer Impact Anal y s is Pro cess
 T h e MI A co n s i s ts o fth ree p h ases

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

I ndu str y pr ofi l e Devel o p p r el im in ar GRIM* Devel o in t e rv ie w gui d e Inter v i e w s & i n dus tr ywi d e subgr o u p ana l yses A s sess direc t empl o y ment, compet ition, cumulat i v e bur den Fi na liz e M I A resu lt s for NOPR

* Govern m en t R egula t ory I m

pac t Mode l ( G RI M)

11

Manu fact urer I m pac t A n a l y s is 

### The MI A is both c onc urre nt a nd c oordi na te d w i th a c t i v itie s through ou t th e ru lemakin g p r o cess.

12 Phase I Industry P r ofile

Phase II I Manufactu rerIn t e rview s Revised Industry Cash Flow Manufactu rerSubgroup Analy s is Qualitative Asse ssment Phase II Pr elim inary G R IM 

### Manufacturer I m pact Anal ysis Screening Ana ysi Screening Ana l ysis Engine ering Ana l y s is LCC Analy s is ngs Ana y Nationa l Energ y Sav i ngs Ana l y s is Consumer Subgr oup Util ity Impac ts Environmental I m pacts 

### Other Rulemak i ng Ana l yses

Impac Indirect Emplo y ment Impac ts

## G e neral Serv i ce Fluorescent Lam p and Incandescent Reflec tor March 1 0

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Manu fact urer I m pac t A n a l y s is 

## Phase I: I n dus tryProfile
 Collect finan c ial and market information


# • Industry repo rts


# • Compan y annual repo rts and w e b s ites


# • Trade journals


# • U.S. Census Bur eau 

# • SEC 10-K for m filings


# • ANOPR informa t ion f r om the ma rket and technolog y assessment, engineering ana ly sis, life-c y cle cost analy s is, and analy s is of consumer prices

13

Manu fact urer I m pac t A n a l y s is 

## Phase II: Develop Prel iminary GRIM



#  The Go ve rnme nt Re gula t oryImpa c t Mode l (GRIM) is a n in dus try

cash flo w an a l y s is th at esti m ates th e ch a n g e in ind u s try v a lu e due to t h e intr oduc tio n ofn e w e n e r gyc ons e r v a tion s t anda rds .

Ma n u f ac tu re r Pr ic es
Shipmen t s M a nufac turi ng Co sts

Fi na nc i a l I n for m ati o n

Cash Flo w Imp act s, Changes i n Indus tr y NPV 

# GRIM

14

## G e neral Serv i ce Fluorescent Lam p and Incandescent Reflec tor March 1 0

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Manu fact urer I m pac t A n a l y s is 

## Phase II: Develop I n te rview Guid e
 A c r itical asp e c t o fth e MI A in v o l v es in ter v ie w s w i th man u f actu r ers. A n interv ie w guide is sent to m a nufact urers i n preparation for Phase III.  Interv ie w t opi cs w i ll inclu d e . . . 

# • Engine ering analy s is 

# • Shipments model 

# • Cost struc t ure an d financia l param eters 

# • Conversion costs (capital expenditures, tooling, R& D, testing) 

# • Impact of o t he r r egulation s / cum u lative burden 

# • Direct emplo y me nt impacts 

# • Impo rt / expo rt issues 

# • Consolidat ion / competitive impacts 

# • Replacement pa r t s or refu rbishments 

# • Impact of the s t a ndard’s effective date 

# • Othertopics importan t to manufa c ture rs
15

Manu fact urer I m pac t A n a l y s is 

## Phase III: Ma nu facturer Interview s

 Exp ected time frame  Time a nd pe rs onne l c o mmit m e n t for ma nufa c t ure r s (indus try - w i de GRIM, GRIM assumptions, s ubgroup analysis discussion)
 Co n f id en tialityag r eem en ts

16

## G e neral Serv i ce Fluorescent Lam p and Incandescent Reflec tor March 1 0

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Manu fact urer I m pac t A n a l y s is 

## Phase III: Ma nu facturer Subgrou p Anal y s is
 The s ubgro u p a n a l y s is is a more foc u s e d v e rs ion of th e indus try w i de an aly s is.



# • Ga therinfor m ation about w hat su b-groups orchar acteristics are m o st appropriate. 

# • Work w i th subgr oup rep r esentati v es to tailor a GRIM incorpo r ating unique financia l characteristics 

# • Consid er and focus on issues of im por tance to the subgroup, includ ing employment , cap a city u t ilization a nd cumulative bu rden 

# • Reviewdraf t findings w i th s ubgrou p membe r s du ring development

17

Manu fact urer I m pac t A n a l y s is 

## Phase III: Results
 During interv i e w s , DOE seeks comments and suggestions on t h e paramet e rs u sed in the preliminaryGRIM. The results f o r the fin a n c ial imp a cts o n th e in du str yfo llo w i ng th ese co mmen t s are p r esen ted in th e NOPR p h a se.  In ad dition , the resu lts fo r th e fo llo w ing qu alitati v e imp acts o n th e industryare also presented:



# • Competitive Impact Assessment 

# • Manufactu ring Capacity Impact 

# • Employ men t Imp a ct 

# • Cumulative Regu latory Burden

18

## G e neral Serv i ce Fluorescent Lam p and Incandescent Reflec tor March 1 0

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NOPR A n al y ses and Nex t S t eps 

## NOPR A n al yses F l o w Diagram

Ma n u f a c tu re r

Impact An a l ys i s Ut ilit y Impact An a l y s i s Tr i a l St andard Lev e l s Re v i se AN O P R A n al y ses En v i ronmen t a l A s sessment Regul a t o r y Impact An a l y s i s Empl oy ment

Impact An a l y s i s LC C Subgroup An a l y s i s

19

U t il ityIm p a ct A n a l y s i s 

## UtilityImp a ct Anal y s is

 Purpose 

# • T o investigate the effects on utilitie s from red u ced en erg ys a les an d peak lo ad dem and du e to potential stan dard s 

##  Me thod 

# • Uses natio nal energ ysav i ngs results 

# • Uses the Ener g y Informati on Administrati on’ s Nationa l Ene r g y Model ing S y st em (NEMS) tail ored for DOE’s Buildi ng T e chnolo g ies Program (NEM S-BT ) 

##  Ou tput 

# • Chan ge in e n e r g y sa les b yre gion 

# • Chan ge in the mix of el ectricit y ge nerati o n 

# • Chan ge in n e wcapacit y c onst r uction
20

## G e neral Serv i ce Fluorescent Lam p and Incandescent Reflec tor March 1 0

- 1 1 , 2008 L am p Ener g yConserv ati onStandard ANO P R Public Meetin g

NOPR A n al y ses and Nex t S t eps 

## NOPR A n al yses F l o w Diagram

Ma n u f a c tu re r

Impact An a l ys i s Ut ilit y Impact An a l y s i s Tr i a l St andard Lev e l s Re v i se AN O P R A n al y ses En v i ronmen t a l A s sessment Regul a t o r y Impact An a l y s i s Empl oy ment

Impact An a l y s i s LC C Subgroup An a l y s i s

21

E m p l o y me nt Imp a c t A n al y s i s 

## Emplo y me nt Impac t Anal y s is  Purpos e 

# • T o report net jobs created or e lim in ated nati o nall yas a co ns eque nce of ne w ener g y efficienc y stan dards  Me thod 

# • Uses the ImSET tool, a spreadsheet mod e l of the U.S. econom y th at focuses on 18 8 sectors most releva nt to indu strial, commerc ial, and reside ntial b u il ding e nerg yus e 

# • Chan ges in pr o duct and en erg ye x p end itures taken from the Nation al Impact Anal ysi s 

# • Estimates the nation a l emp l o y me nt and inc o me effects of e nerg y saving a ppl ian c es 

# • Direct empl o y ment impacts taken from the Manufacturer I m pact Anal ysis  Output 

# • Chan ge in em p l o y ment b ysec t or as a conse quenc e of ne w standards 22

## G e neral Serv i ce Fluorescent Lam p and Incandescent Reflec tor March 1 0

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NOPR A n al yses F l o w Diagram

Ma n u f a c tu re r

Impact An a l ys i s Ut ilit y Impact An a l y s i s Tr i a l St andard Lev e l s Re v i se AN O P R A n al y ses En v i ronmen t a l A s sessment Regul a t o r y Impact An a l y s i s Empl oy ment

Impact An a l y s i s LC C Subgroup An a l y s i s

23

En v i r o n m en tal A s sessme n t 

## Environme n tal As sess ment  Purpos e 

# • T o report environmenta l impa cts as a consequenc e of ne w energ y efficienc y stan dards, incl udi n g chang es in p o w e r pl ant emi ssions  Me thod 

# • Energ ysavi ng s results taken from the Natio nal Impact Ana l y s is 

# • Nation al Ener g yMod e li ng S y s t em (NEMS-BT ) provides p o w e r-pla nt emissions  Output 

# • Estimate of nationa l emissi on reductio n s

– I mpact on CO 2 

### emissio n s repo rted

– P o w er pl ant SO 2 

### and NO x 

### emissions ar e effectivel y c app e d through Congr essio nal legis l atio n resu lting in l i ttle to no emissi on re ductions due to standar ds

– T he mercur y cap-an d-trade r u le w a s rec entl yovertur ned b ythe courts; replace m ent regul atio ns are not yet determin e d 24

## G e neral Serv i ce Fluorescent Lam p and Incandescent Reflec tor March 1 0

- 1 1 , 2008 L am p Ener g yConserv ati onStandard ANO P R Public Meetin g

NOPR A n al y ses and Nex t S t eps 

## NOPR A n al yses F l o w Diagram

Ma n u f a c tu re r

Impact An a l ys i s Ut ilit y Impact An a l y s i s Tr i a l St andard Lev e l s Re v i se AN O P R A n al y ses En v i ronmen t a l A s sessment Regul a t o r y Impact An a l y s i s Empl oy ment

Impact An a l y s i s LC C Subgroup An a l y s i s

25

Regula t or yI m p act A n a l y s is 

## Regula t oryImpact An a l y s is
 Purpos e 

# • To investigate the national impact s due to non
- r eg ulatory alte rnatives compared w i th m andator y ene rg y efficiency standa rds 

# • The non- regulato ry alterna t ives that ma y be consid ered:

– E arly replacement; custo m erta x credits; manu fact urerta x credits;

customer reba te s; voluntar y ef fi ciency ta rgets ; en hanced consumer education and la beling progra m ; and bulk government p r ocure m e n t 

###  Method 

# • Modif y NES spre adsheet model to consider non- re gulatory scenario s

– N on-regulato ry scenarios in crease over all lamp eff i ca cy and a r e mo deled

b y modif y ing the base-case efficacy t r end

– Apercent ma rket adoption estimat e is applied to each non- regulator y

scenario. In each case, the perce nt adoption w i ll be less than the 1 00% adoption implicit in the regulatory standard op tion.

– N PV ca lcu l ated for non
- r egulatory alternatives in the same w a y as f o r the

adopted standa r d 

###  Output 

# • Nationa l Energ y Savings and Net Pr esent Value of the non -regulato ry alternatives 26