Rocky Mountain

Research Station

General Technical 

Report RMRS-GTR-200

United States

Department

of Agriculture

Forest Service September 2007

National Fire Plan

Research And Development

2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

The progress and accomplishments of the U.S. Forest Service’s 

National Fire Plan Research and Development for research 

findings, tool developments, technology transfer, and 

research highlights in four key areas:

v Firefighting

v Rehabilitation and Restoration

v Hazardous Fuel Reduction

v Community Assistance
Rocky Mountain Research Station

Natural Resources Research Center

2150 Centre Avenue, Building A

Fort Collins, CO 80526

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Telephone (970) 498-1392

FAX	 (970) 498-1122

E-mail rschneider@fs.fed.us

Web site http://www.fs.fed.us/rmrs

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 Rocky Mountain Research Station

 240 West Prospect Road

 Fort Collins, CO 80526

Hilbruner, Michael W. and Paul Keller, eds. 2007. National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 accomplishment report. 

General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-200. Fort Collins, CO: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 73 p.

Abstract

This report highlights accomplishments achieved by USDA Forest Service National Fire Plan Research and Development projects from 2004 

through 2005 in four key areas: firefighting, rehabilitation and restoration, hazardous fuels reduction, and community assistance. These highlights 

illustrate the broad range of knowledge and tools introduced and generated by the National Fire Plan Research and Development program.

**In fond memory of Sue Ann Ferguson**
National Fire Plan Research and Development is working to improve firefighting preparedness through 

tools and models developed to predict activities such as: wildfire behavior, aggression, intensity, and 

effects; smoke transport; and fire-weather forecasting. Results of this research are helping managers 

and national forest personnel to: fight fires cost effectively, increase firefighter safety, plan and conduct

prescribed burns, and reduce wildfire damage to natural resources and society.

CONTENTS

I Introduction................................................................................................................1

II Background................................................................................................................3

III Accomplishments in the Four Key Research and Development Areas.................6

Firefighting Accomplishments...................................................................6

 Highlight Projects.........................................................14

Rehabilitation and Restoration Accomplishments................................ 28

 Highlight Projects.........................................................33

Hazardous Fuel Reduction Accomplishments........................................38

 Highlight Projects........................................................ 48

Community Assistance Accomplishments .............................................55

 Highlight Projects........................................................ 60

IV Appendices .............................................................................................................65

Cover photographs by Dan Megna, Eli Lehmann, and Mark S. Moak.
In Memoriam:

Sue Ann Ferguson

February 11, 1953 – December 18, 2005

Dr. Sue Ferguson passed away December 18, 

2005, on a gloriously beautiful, crisp, bluesky Seattle day. Sue had been battling cancer 

for the past year and one-half. She leaves 

behind a legacy of accomplishments in 

her research and in her relationships with 

friends, family, and coworkers. With her 

enthusiasm, tenacity, and boundless energy, 

Sue was an inspiration to all who knew her.

She enjoyed a 13-year career in avalanche 

forecasting before coming to wildland fire 

research at the USDA Forest Service’s 

Pacific Northwest Research Station (PNW) 

in 1992. (She was a recognized world 

avalanche expert and wrote a book about 

avalanches.) At PNW, Sue worked as a research meteorologist 

with the Fire and Environmental Research Applications Team. Sue 

founded and led the Atmosphere and Fire Interactions Research 

and Engineering (AirFIRE) Team.

She also provided the vision for and helped establish the Northwest 

Regional Modeling Consortium, a multiagency effort to develop 

improved weather forecasts. Using these predictions, she was able 

to offer land and fire managers tailored real-time forecast products 

that enhance and display existing fire weather indices such as the 

Haines Index, Fosberg Fire Weather Index, and a new dry lightning 

index.

Through the National Fire Plan, she created 

the BlueSky smoke-modeling framework, 

the innovative tool that—for the first time—

allows users to see real-time predictions of 

cumulative smoke impacts from prescribed, 

wildland, and agricultural fire. This tool has 

been hailed as one of the preeminent research 

products to emerge from the National Fire 

Plan. It recently won the National Fire Plan’s 

Excellence in Research Award.

The success of Sue’s Northwest Regional 

Modeling Consortium and BlueSky smokemodeling framework have prompted 

similar efforts around the country. Now—

due to Sue’s work and vision—real-time 

tailored forecasts of fire indices and smoke predictions are available 

throughout the lower 48 States.

Sue was also instrumental in the revival of the American 

Meteorological Society’s biennial Fire and Forest Meteorology 

Conferences. Through her dedicated work, the utility of meteorology 

in fire research has been elevated to an unprecedented level. Her 

efforts continue to benefit and assist managers and researchers in the 

fire management field.

Sue Ferguson will be sorely missed. Her talent and wisdom and her 

infectious laugh, smile, and good humor made us all better for being 

with her.

Sue Ferguson sailing on Lake Washington in September 2005.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 

I Introduction

The importance of hazardous fuel reduction and community 

assistance research is underscored by outcomes like southern 

California’s 2003 wildland-urban interface fire siege (pictured 

here) that claimed the lives of 23 private citizens who were fleeing 

their flame-surrounded homes. Photos: Dan Megna.

Science-based knowledge and tools developed by National Fire Plan Research and Development are being used by this country’s land managers to:

v Better predict potential fire hazard, fire growth, and smoke 

impacts;

v Evaluate fire behavior and fire severity more accurately and 

rapidly;

v Improve planning for post-fire rehabilitation;

v Better understand the effects of fuel treatments on fire 

behavior; and

v Evaluate the economic costs and benefits of fuel treatments 

and alternative forest products.

This new National Fire Plan-generated research information and associated tools also help our:

v Communities and homeowners better understand what can 

be done to reduce wildland fire risk;

v Wildland managers understand how to best work with these 

communities in collaborative planning efforts;

v Wilderness managers to better predict where fires can 

be allowed to burn naturally without causing severe 

ecosystem damage or hazards to communities; and

v Scientists better understand the impacts of fire and fuel 

treatments on aquatic systems and fish populations.
	 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

National Fire Plan-funded research providing vital tools to Federal, State and local governments

In the fourth and fifth years, the National Fire Plan Research and 

Development program, managed by the Forest Service, conducted 

research and—together with managers—brought science into 

application to aid in addressing wildland fire issues facing the 

country.

While much of the work centered around the three flagship fire 

research laboratories located in Missoula, MT, Seattle, WA, and 

Riverside, CA, scientists from all Forest Service Research Stations 

and the Forest Products Laboratories pursued Research and 

Development goals in all 50 States.

Seventy-two research teams continued to: establish new agreements 

with universities and other research partners; produce publications and 

decision-analysis tools; provide training; and transfer new information 

and technologies to managers, policymakers, and the public through 

Web sites, field tours, presentations, and other means.

Scientists funded by the National Fire Plan built on newly developed 

tools and databases to provide critical assistance to Federal, State, and 

local governments as they responded to the numerous fires experienced 

in the exceptional fire years of 2004 and 2005.

Fire research continues to address crucial National Fire Plan needs in four key areas

Guided by the strategic goals outlined in the National Fire Plan and the 10-year Comprehensive Strategy and Implementation Plan, fire research 

continues to actively address crucial needs in these four key areas:

Firefighting Capacity

Provide better models of weather, fire behavior, smoke 

and other tools for improving firefighter decisions.

Rehabilitation and Restoration

Provide rapid response information and models to help 

restore landscapes and protect communities from the 

aftereffects of fire.

Hazardous Fuel Reduction

Develop improved analysis tools for determining the effects 

and economic tradeoffs of treatments intended to reduce 

fire risk by removing hazardous fuel (combustible forest 

materials).

Community Assistance

Work with communities to understand their needs and 

priorities, develop new approaches and materials for 

education, and recommend acceptable approaches to ensure 

adequate community protection from wildfire.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 

II Background

Considerable progress achieved in reducing hazardous fuel and assisting communities

The National Fire Plan—initiated in 2001 in response to the devastating 

2000 fire season (table 1)—helps to support the enhancement of vital fire 

management and fire research activities.

The severe fire seasons in the new millennium further reinforced this 

need for:

v An aggressive and coordinated management response,

v The science needed to support this response, and

v Knowledge about fuel conditions that predispose landscapes 

to large, uncharacteristically destructive wildfires.

In 2004 and 2005, the Forest Service and the Department of the Interior 

made considerable progress in reducing hazardous fuel and assisting 

communities in preparing for wildland fire. 

In support of these efforts, the National Fire Plan Research and 

Development program, in conjunction with other Forest Service R&D 

activities, accelerated efforts to improve the agency’s:

v Science base, 

v Analysis, and

v Decision-support tools for fire and fuel.

Three Core Research Programs 

The work described in this document outlines the National Fire 

Plan R&D program administered by the Forest Service. Fire-related 

research is also conducted by Forest Service scientists supported 

by the Forest Service’s general R&D appropriation. The Joint Fire 

Science Program is an interagency fire science program in which the 

Forest Service also participates.

In addition, these three core programs are complemented by various 

partners, including:

v Numerous universities,

v The U.S. Geological Survey,

v The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and

v The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
	 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

National Fire Plan Research and Development Program benefits prove to be multifaceted

Table 1 – Number of Fires and Ac res Burned on Federal and St at e Protected

Lands From 2000 to 2005.

Date Number of Fires Acres

2005 66,753 8,689,389

2004 65,461 8,097,880*

2003 63,629 3,960,842

2002 73,457 7,184,712

2001 84,079 3,570,911

2000 92, 250 7,393,493 *2004 statistics do not include North Carolina

Statistics provided by the National Interagency Fire Center on April 2, 2007. This information is available

at http://www.nifc.gov.

The benefits of National Fire Plan Research and Development are 

multifaceted. In addition to making research available through the 

standard outputs such as publications in journals, proceedings, 

and agency research papers, National Fire Plan Research and 

Development teams also focus outputs specifically designed to meet 

the needs of management and policy decisionmakers.

During fiscal years 2004 and 2005, National Fire Plan Research and 

Development research funds provided:

v Development of science synthesis documents and 

products;

v Development of useful models and tools for analyzing 

management alternatives;

v Critical advice to managers on fuel treatments, restoration, 

rehabilitation, and invasive species management;

v Evaluation of the effects of post-fire treatments and fuel 

treatments;

v New tools and data on active fire incidents to managers;

v Development of new training materials and Web sites for 

disseminating information;

v Education for managers, policymakers, and citizens on 

related issues; and

v Collaboration with universities and other key science 

partners.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 

New Information and Tools Provided by National Fire Plan Research and Development

Recent progress under National Fire Plan Research and Development is providing new information and tools to:

v Improve firefighting effectiveness,

v Enhance recovery of burned ecosystems,

v Improve programs for hazardous fuel reduction, and

v Enhance community preparedness.

National Fire Plan Research and Development Funding and Teams

The National Fire Plan Research and Development program was 

initiated in 2001. Available funds to conduct National Fire Plan 

research have remained relatively constant since the program 

began.

A total of $22.3 million in funding was appropriated in 2004. In 

2005, this amount dropped to $21.7 million.

In both 2004 and 2005—as in previous years, and based on 

appropriation language—program funds were disbursed to the 

University of Montana Landscape Fire Center and to the University 

of Idaho to support the Fire Research and Management Exchange 

System (FRAMES) project. In addition, some funding was retained 

for national program support and special projects.

In the first year, 2001, funds were awarded to 72 research teams; 6 

more were added in 2002.

There was a 5-year commitment period with the provision that 

funding could be extended contingent on evolving fire Research 

and Development priorities, available funds, and program performance.

In 2004, due to declines in the appropriation and other supporting 

program funds, 6 of the 78 research teams were unfunded (see figure 

below).

(See table in appendix for the “National Fire Plan Research and 

Development Program Projects and Team Lead Scientists” that 

displays the distribution of the research teams among the National 

Fire Plan key points—and identifies the 6 teams for which 

funding was dropped.)

Where is National Fire Plan Research and Development taking place?

The National Fire Plan Research and Development Program is national 

in scope and supports research in all 50 States. The program seeks to 

balance priorities and funding to meet needs across the country in key 

points of the National Fire Plan. The research involves Forest Service 

research teams and many cooperators from universities, the private 

sector, and non-Federal agencies. Many Forest Service research 

teams have broad national or regional missions and expertise. 

Research conducted at one location is often applicable across broad 

geographic areas.

Hazardous

fuel

Number of NFP Research Teams

by Key Point Area

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Pre-2004

2004-2005

Firefighting Rehabilitation/

restoration

Community

assistance

Number of teams
	 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

III Accomplishments 

in the Four Key Research and Development Areas

Firefighting Accomplishments

As this chapter outlines, National Fire Plan Research and Development is improving 

firefighting preparedness through tools and models that predict:

v Wildfire behavior, aggression, intensity and effects;

v Smoke transport; and

v Fire weather forecasting.

This research—illustrated and explored in the following pages—is helping our natural 

resource managers and national forest and rangeland staff to:

v Fight fires cost effectively;

v Increase firefighter safety;

v Better plan and conduct prescribed burns; and

v Reduce wildfire damage to natural resources and society.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 

Enhancing firefighting capability and fire preparedness

Weather forecasting models are needed that allow for more accurate 

prediction of fire-weather conditions and smoke transport and dispersion. 

Existing weather models have not been systematically applied to 

forecasting fire weather conditions. Thus, to enhance fire fighting capability 

and fire preparedness, scientists are working together in a regional 

consortium to develop improved forecasts of fire weather and smoke 

transport. This is one of several coordinated projects looking at predicting 

and modeling fire weather.

Project Identifier:Heilman et al., 01. NCS.A. 1,

 North Central Research Station.

Lead Scientist:Warren Heilman, wheilman@fs.fed.us,

 517-355-7740 ext. 110.

Improving fire season severity predictions by examining 

relationships between climatic patterns and other indicators

Assessing the severity of the upcoming fire season is key to efficiently 

allocating fire suppression resources. Researchers are taking a new 

approach to improving fire season predictions by looking at the 

relationships between major climatic patterns and various environmental 

indicators of severe wildfire conditions. The information generated will 

help managers in wildfire preparedness efforts and will also be useful for 

the management of prescribed fires. This is one of an array of coordinated 

projects looking at predicting and modeling fire weather.

Project Identifier: Goodrick, 01.SRS.A.4, Southern

 Research Station.

Lead Scientist:Scott Goodrick, sgoodrick@fs.fed.us.

Firefighting Accomplishments

Photo by Ben Croft
	 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Models will allow managers to evaluate fish and wildlife 

risks prior to making resource management decisions

Debate continues over how to manage fish and wildlife resources 

on federal lands in light of disturbances such as wildfires. Resolving 

the debate will require information on how wildfires and treatments 

implemented during and after fire affect these resources. Researchers 

are developing models that will enable managers to evaluate risks to 

fish and wildlife prior to making resource management decisions. 

Project Identifier:Lee, 01.PSW.A.1, Pacific Southwest

 Research Station.

Lead Scientist:Danny C. Lee, dclee@fs.fed.us, 707-825-2965.

Improving fire severity model predictions

Fuels such as shrubs, old stumps, duff, and moss layers are not well 

represented in models currently used by fire managers to predict fire 

behavior and fire effects. Because of this lack of data, researchers 

are working to develop a new system to predict smoldering 

combustion and fuel moisture that better represents these types of 

fuels. This research will be used to predict the residence times in each 

combustion stage, and to predict the thresholds of flammability in 

many fuel types. The revised models will enable managers to make 

better predictions of fire danger and fire severity involving residual 

combustion, fire effects, and the opportunities for fire use. 

Project Identifier: Sandberg, 01.PNW.A.4,

 Pacific Northwest Research Station.

Lead Scientist:David V. Sandberg, dsandberg@fs.fed.us,

541-750-7265.

Running crown fire produces massive flame lengths and boiling 

smoke column on the Pasayten Wilderness in the Pacific Northwest 

Region. Photo by Eli Lehmann, U.S. Forest Service.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 

New thermal imaging process reaps numerous benefits, 

including improved safety for firefighters

Airborne infrared imagers allow observers to “see through” smoke to 

detect lightning-ignited fires and to map fire areas. Imagers used in 

fire suppression today are limited in their ability to measure the very 

bright infrared light emitted by large wildland fires. Furthermore, 

infrared mapping aircraft are nationally deployed and thus may not 

be readily available for monitoring any given, fast-moving wildfire. 

New low-cost technology is needed to provide accurate tracking of 

fire intensity or activity, propagation, and immediate impacts. In 

response, scientists and engineers are developing and applying the 

“FireMapper” thermal-imaging radiometer to map and monitor major 

wildfires. Based on modern night-vision technology, the FireMapper 

is designed to accurately map surface temperatures associated with 

both major fire fronts and spot fires. Thus, this new imaging provides 

rapid fire intelligence to improve firefighter safety, make firefighting 

more effective, and reducing wildfire damage to natural resources and 

society. 

Project Identifier: Riggan, 01.PSW.A.4,

 Pacific Southwest Research Station.

Lead Scientist:Philip J. Riggan, priggan@fs.fed.us,

 951-680-1534.

Targeting fuel reduction and fire management resources 

where they are most needed

Improving our understanding of ecological and social factors 

influencing fire regimes can provide insights into the vulnerability 

of different communities to wildfires. Researchers are developing 

a predictive model of fire frequencies using a number of ecological 

and social data including fuel types, climate, topography, ignition 

sources, road density, and ownership. Spatial statistics are being 

used to reconstruct the extent of historical fires observed by General 

Land Office surveyors in the 19th century. This information, in 

conjunction with records of modern fires (1985-2000), is being used 

to derive spatially explicit estimates of historical and modern fire 

rotations associated with particular landscape ecosystems and land 

cover. Fire risk maps are being developed by overlaying these fire 

regime maps with maps of population and housing density. This will 

provide managers with a useful decision support tool for targeting fuel 

reduction and fire management resources where they are most needed. 

Project Identifier:Haight and Cleland, 01.NCS.A.2,

 North Central Research Station.

Lead Scientist:Robert G. Haight, rhaight@fs.fed.us,

 651-649-5178.
10 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Major breakthrough targets quantifying atmospheric 

pollutants from wildfire

To comply with the Clean Air Act and Regional Haze Rule 

requirements, it is necessary to forecast the transport of smoke over 

large regions. Researchers developed and validated an algorithm for 

mapping large fire burned areas in real-time by using Terra and Aqua 

satellite data. This major breakthrough allows fire scientists to quantify 

daily emissions of atmospheric pollutants from fires. It will also help 

land managers comply with air quality standards when planning for 

and conducting prescribed burns. Regional Haze Rule is a new U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency rule promulgated under court order 

that requires visibility be protected in Clean Air Act Class I Areas (i.e., 

Forest Service wilderness, national parks, etc.) and returned to natural 

conditions by the year 2064. 

Project Identifier:Hao, 02.RMS.A.2,

 Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist:Wei Min Hao, whao@fs.fed.us, 406-329-4838.

Study investigates smoke plume properties

Researchers are developing mobile instruments that can perform realtime measurements of particulate concentrations emitted by fires over 

large areas. Specifically, three prescribed burning experiments were 

conducted by using light detection and ranging (LIDAR) to study 

plume height and smoke dispersion. This proof-of-concept study 

demonstrated the utility of LIDAR for investigating smoke plume 

properties in harsh conditions. 

Project Identifier:Hao, 01.RMS.A.3,

 Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Wei Min Hao, whao@fs.fed.us, 406-329-4838.

Exploring statistical models to evaluate the trade-offs and 

relative costs and benefits of fuel reduction measures

What are the relative costs and benefits of using various fuel reduction 

and fire suppression measures? Unfortunately, analytical tools for 

evaluating these trade-offs are not currently available at a regional 

scale. Scientists are therefore developing statistical models to evaluate 

these trade-offs. Linking cost and benefit information to alternative 

vegetation management strategies will improve efficiency of potential 

fire management programs and policies. 

Project Identifier: Prestemon, 01.SRS.A.2,

 Southern Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Jeffrey P. Prestemon,

 jprestemon@fs.fed.us, 919-549-4033.

Improving fire behavior and fire season severity 

predictions in the rocky mountains and southwest

Because fuel loads and fuel energy potential are weather dependent, 

higher resolution weather and climatologic intelligence—beyond that 

currently available to fire managers—will improve fire behavior and 

fire season severity predictions. Scientists are working to establish the 

Rocky Mountain and Southwestern Interagency Modeling Consortium 

for research and operational mesoscale meteorological modeling to 

serve the Rocky Mountain area. This consortium joins the four fire 

weather modeling consortia established in 2001—and will eventually 

be linked to them.

Project Identifier:Zeller, 02.RMS.A.1,

 Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist:Karl Zeller,

 kzeller@fs.fed.us, 970-498-1238.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 11

Pilot test aims for consistent, national 

fuel condition monitoring system

Currently, no systematic measurements of forest 

fuel loading and fire potential is occurring 

anywhere across the United States. However, the 

Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program does 

conduct annual inventories of the nation’s forests. 

During the course of these inventories, research is 

also in progress for measuring fuel loading. Thus, 

this approach is providing critical information 

for validating remotely-sensed estimates of fuel 

loading. This scientific pursuit will provide the 

potential for a consistent, national basis for gauging 

the effectiveness of fire and fuel management 

policies.

Project Identifier: May, 01.NCS.A.3,North 

 Central Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Dennis May,

 dmay@fs.fed.us, 651-649-5132.

Devising landscape assessment tools critical for the implementation of LANDFIRE project

the LANDFIRE project (mapping fuel vegetation properties for the 

entire United States at 30 meters resolution). Without these National 

Fire Plan funds, the LANDFIRE project could not be successfully 

completed. Many research tasks must be completed to implement 

LANDFIRE.

This research project investigates various methods of mapping fuels, fire 

behavior, fire effects, and vegetation conditions to describe fire hazard 

and risk at multiple scales using simulation modeling, gradient analysis, 

and remote sensing. National Fire Plan funding was used to establish a 

team of scientists that conducts the core research for devising landscape 

assessment tools that are absolutely critical for the implementation of 

Project Identifier: Keane, 01.RMS.A.4, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Robert Keane, rkeane@fs.fed.us, 406-328-4846.

Wildfire burns on the Bridger-Teton National Forest 23 miles south of Jackson, WY. 

Photo by Jed Conklin, Spokesman Review, Spokane, WA.
12 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Developing methods to estimate haze from prescribed and wildland fires

The Regional Haze Rule recognizes that some prescribed fires 

substitute for natural fires in ecosystems. Consequently, prescribed 

fires are considered to be natural sources of visibility reduction. 

Regulatory agencies and land managers must establish the level 

of natural background visibility reduction; predict impacts from 

prescribed fires and wildfires in the near term—and out to 50 years in 

the future; and plan to eliminate human-caused visibility impairment 

by 2064. Researchers are developing methods to estimate and predict 

the natural and anthropogenic sources of regional haze. They are 

determining what visibility impacts can be expected from wildland 

fires and prescribed fires needed to restore and sustain ecosystem 

function. This information can be used to evaluate the air quality 

impact and acceptability of alternative fire management and fuel 

management strategies.

Project Identifier: McKenzie, 01.PNW.A.2, Pacific Northwest Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Don McKenzie, donaldmckenzie@fs.fed.us, 206-732-7824.

Establishing a research and technology transfer 

unit for southern interface areas

With the steady rise of new homes in this country’s southern 

forestlands, wildland firefighters and small forest land owners 

need information and technology concerning the unique issues 

that surround preventing, fighting, and mitigating fire in the 

Wildland-Urban Interface. The Southern Research Station is 

establishing a center for fire prevention and pre-suppression 

information for federal, state, and local firefighting units in the 

South—with an emphasis on Wildland-Urban Interface issues.

Project Identifier:Macie, O1.SRS.A.3,

 Southern Research Station.

Lead Scientists: Ed Macie

 emacie@fs.fed., 404/347-1647.

The Dexter Wildland Fire Use Fire consumes fuels on the Inyo National Forest, 

Photo by Jeff Bunker, U.S. Forest Service.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 13

Improving southern regional models for predicting smoke movement

National Fire Plan Award Recipient

This project was recognized with a 2005 National Fire 

Plan Award for Excellence in Science for helping the 

health of firefighters and the public through improved 

smoke monitoring, modeling and management; 

and enhancing the restoration of longleaf/savanna 

ecosystems; and establishing a baseline for fuels 

reduction accountability. 

Smoke modeling research is designed to answer an array of predictive questions 

for management. Several models are being designed to assist prescribed burners 

in knowing where and when residual smoke from prescribed burns can become 

trapped near the ground at night—and create visibility hazards that increase the 

potential for automobile accidents. “Rabbit” is a rule-driven fire spread model 

being designed to calculate prescribed fire spread rates during various firing 

methods. Data from Rabbit will replace the crude emissions production model 

now in place. The “Blowdown” model adapts PB-Piedmont code to weather 

radar data to simulate thunderstorm downdraft and outflow hazards. Blowdown 

gives short-range predictions of thunderstorm-caused wind shifts, and estimates 

how strong the wind will blow.

Project Identifier: Achtemeier, 01.SRS.A.5, Southern Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Gary L. Achtemeier, gachtemeier@fs.fed.us, 706-559-4239.

Improving monitoring and modeling of smoke contributions to regional haze

Smoke can impact human health as well as agricultural and 

natural vegetation at locations distant from the actual fire. When 

smoke combines with industrial pollution from urban areas, the 

spatial extent and effects of smoke on remote areas may increase. 

Measuring these fire emissions and air chemistry in remote areas is 

difficult. However, new technical developments—such as passive 

samplers and portable active monitors for gaseous and particulate 

pollutants—are offering new research possibilities. Scientists are 

testing commercially available passive samplers for some important 

gaseous pollutants (ozone, nitrogen oxides and ammonia), and 

developing their own nitric acid vapor. These monitoring efforts 

provide an enhanced understanding of air pollution transport 

and distribution in complex mountain terrain. By monitoring the 

effects of several Lake Tahoe Basin regional fires, scientists have 

clearly demonstrated that most of the ozone and nitric acid vapor 

pollution in the Tahoe Basin is produced locally and does not result 

from long-range transport. Since 2003, scientists have also monitored 

concentrations of ozone, ammonia and nitric acid on the Kings River 

Project in the central Sierra Nevada and 18 monitoring sites in the San 

Bernardino Mountains. These scientists are now approaching the end 

of the 4th season of their air quality monitoring. Their observed new 

trends of air pollution distribution are much different from those 20-30 

years ago. These new trends of pollution distribution patterns have been 

associated with a dynamic urban development of the Los Angeles Basin 

as well as in the Coachella Valley and the Mojave Desert. Results of 

their comprehensive and ongoing research is providing the information 

necessary for developing air pollution dispersion models and maps 

that will assist managers in planning for prescribed burns and control 

strategies for natural fires.

Project Identifier: Bytnerowicz, 02.PSW.A.1, Pacific Southwest Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Andrzej Bytnerowicz, abytnerowicz@fs.fed.us, 909-680-1562.
14 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Highlight Projects

Firefighting 

Accomplishments

1. Brian Potter, Pacific Northwest Region:

BlueSky – An award-winning modeling framework for real-time predictions of cumulative smoke impacts............15

2. Jon Hom, Northeastern Research Station:

Multidisciplinary approach improves fire behavior prediction in New Jersey’s volatile fuel type .................................17

3. Carol Miller, Rocky Mountain Research Station:

Helping managers devise effective strategies for managing fire and fuels for wilderness and adjacent lands...............19

4. Ronald P. Neilson, Pacific Northwest Research Station:

Linking weather conditions and fire occurrence to better predict continental-scale trends........................................22

5. Wei Min Hao, Rocky Mountain Research Station:

Providing real-time fire monitoring nationwide to improve fire attack strategies 

and resource allocation decisions.....................................................................................................................................24

6. David R. Weise, Pacific Southwest Research Station:

Enabling managers to better anticipate fire risks in chaparral fuels................................................................................26
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 15

1. Bluesky – an award-winning modeling framework for real-time predictions of cumulative smoke impacts

This is the only effort that integrates all elements of the fire environment

into a single modeling framework.

What is BlueSky?

BlueSky is a modeling framework designed to predict cumulative 

impacts of smoke from forest, agricultural, and range fires. The BlueSky 

smoke modeling framework combines state-of-the-art emissions, 

meteorology, and dispersion models to generate the best possible 

predictions of smoke impacts across the landscape.

BlueSky has been created by a close collaboration of land management 

and air quality regulator users with scientific researchers. BlueSky is 

governed by the BlueSky Consortium—with the U.S. Forest Service 

AirFire Team taking the lead responsibility for scientific development.

BlueSky output products are being created by regional Fire Consortium 

for the Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS). The 

FCAMMS are nationally coordinated through the U.S. Forest Service.

The Forest Service is now required to make better predictions of 

smoke movement and track fire emissions to better quantify the 

impacts of prescribed fire and wildfire on:

•	 Air quality,

•	 Visibility, and

•	 Regional haze.

In addition, impacts of smoke from prescribed fires often cause 

delays or cancellations that hamper effective fuel reduction programs.

Moreover, smoke impacts from wildfires can ground air resources 

and delay needed suppression activities. Smoke from all wildland 

fires affects human health. To mitigate these harmful impacts, 

coordinated communications of anticipated impacts are required.

To help meet these important challenges, researchers have designed 

and built “BlueSky,” a Web-based system that provides predictions 

of smoke impacts in real time. This enables managers and public 

officials to:

•	 More effectively inform—and warn—of the impending 

impacts of smoke;

•	 Coordinate prescribed burn activities across land 

ownerships; and

•	 Track—each day—impacts of smoke on air quality, 

visibility, and regional haze.

Continuous operation of this modeling framework allows researchers 

to identify gaps in knowledge of fuel condition, combustion, fire 

behavior, emissions, and dispersion.

The framework also allows sensitivity testing to help prioritize efforts 

needed to improve the science.

While other projects are being conducted to understand and predict 

smoke movement, this is the only effort that integrates all elements of 

the fire environment into a single modeling framework. Furthermore, 

it is the only undertaking that considers the day-to-day accumulation 

of impacts from multiple sources.

Project Identifier : 01.PNW.A.1, Pacific Northwest Research Station. Lead Scientist: Brian Potter, bpotter@fs.fed.us, 206-732-7828.

(Lead Scientist was formerly the late Sue Ferguson.)
16 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

BlueSky Real-time Air Pollution Prediction System Earns the 2004 National Fire Plan Award

...A considerable advancement in fire science.

By working directly with users, 

the BlueSky team has helped incident commanders employ 

BlueSkyRAINS for aircraft resource allocation, timing of 

burnouts, and public information.

BlueSky and its Rapid Access Information System (RAINS) are 

changing the way fire and smoke are managed. Since the project 

began in 2001, BlueSkyRAINS has helped land managers make 

quantitative decisions about smoke impacts and assisted operations 

on dozens of wildfires and hundreds of prescribed fires across the 

Northwest and Canada—fires that affected thousands of lives.

By working directly with users, the BlueSky team has helped incident 

commanders employ BlueSkyRAINS for aircraft resource allocation, 

timing of burnouts, and public information. The team integrated 

BlueSkyRAINS into fuel and smoke management programs and 

helped States, Tribes, and local air agencies improve and adapt the 

system for regulatory applications.

The BlueSky project has made significant progress in three of four 

goals of the National Fire Plan 10-Year Comprehensive Strategy:

•	 Improve Prevention and Suppression by providing highresolution weather and smoke predictions in GIS format 

to indicate location and timing of potential impacts well 

before dangers develop and in time to plan effective 

operations.

•	 Reduce Hazardous Fuel by providing quantitative 

predictions for burn decisions, thus promoting 

collaboration between burners and regulators and 

allowing prescribed burns to occur more often, more 

efficiently, and more safely.

•	 Promote Community Assistance by providing a publicly 

available graphic communication tool that clearly shows 

smoke impacts on sensitive receptors and community 

values.

BlueSky was developed by the AirFIRE team of the Pacific Northwest 

Research Station through collaboration with a consortium of 

members from the Environmental Protection Agency, Bureau of Land 

Management, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 

U.S. Forest Service, and several States and Tribes. These members 

continue to meet regularly to evaluate progress and discuss future 

direction. The consortium includes several committees on state-ofthe-science, technology transfer, liaison with related projects, and user 

needs.

Currently, BlueSky is available in every region through the Fire 

Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke 

(FCAMMS). Administration-level negotiations are now underway to 

implement BlueSkyRAINS nationally.

BlueSky’s integrative modeling framework and centralized processing 

have created a platform for rapid implementation of new science. 

Object-oriented programming allows components of fuel structure, 

fire behavior, consumption, emissions, dispersion, and weather to be 

quickly integrated, analyzed, and improved. Future development will 

allow “ensemble” predictions that employ all available fire tools.

Ensembles allow estimates of impact probability and uncertainty 

from a range of deterministic answers—representing a considerable 

advancement in fire science.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 17

2. Multidisciplinary approach improves fire behavior prediction in New Jersey’s volatile fuel type

Implementing Regional Climate and 

Fire Danger Modeling for the New 

Jersey Pine Barrens

Background

New Jersey fire managers have identified a top 

priority need for a reliable fire danger rating 

system for their region. While the National Fire 

Danger Rating System (NFDRS) works well 

in western forest ecosystems, it does not meet 

wildfire manager needs in this eastern region of 

the United States.

The 1.1 million acres of Pine Barrens—dominated 

by pitch pine, mixed oak species, and understory 

shrubs—represents 22 percent of New Jersey’s 

land area. It is a highly volatile fuel type with 

a short fire return cycle—compared with fuels 

in most other eastern forests. An improved fire 

danger rating system would enable fire managers 

to strategically and cost effectively place 

firefighters and machinery in response to fires.

Approach

A multidisciplinary approach is being taken to 

improve the existing fuel model. This includes:

•	 Enhancing the fire weather monitoring 

for the region,

New Jersey towers located in (from left) oak/pine (leaf off), pine/oak, and pitch pine/scrub oak sites with 

instrumentation to measure: fire weather, fluxes of turbulence, energy, water vapor, and carbon dioxide. 

Photos: U.S. Forest Service.

•	 Analysis of historic fire climate records,

•	 Sensitivity analysis and modeling of component indices in 

the National Fire Danger Rating System, and

•	 Experimental monitoring of prescribed burns over a range 

of climate and humidity conditions. 

Project Identifier : 02.NES.A.1, Northeastern Research Station. Lead Scientist: Jon Hom, jhom@fs.fed.us, 610-557-4097.
18 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

An improved fire danger rating system would enable fire 

managers to strategically and cost effectively place firefighters 

and machinery in response to fires.

Products and Tools

This project’s scientists have coordinated with New Jersey Forest Fire 

Service and the New Jersey state climatologist to establish a network 

of fire weather stations within the pine barrens. Seven fire weather 

towers (4 above canopy, 3 understory) are now maintained—with 

complete standard meteorological and fire weather instrumentation—

in the northern pinelands of New Jersey.

Three of the above-canopy towers are instrumented to measure fluxes 

of turbulence, energy, water vapor and carbon dioxide (see photos). 

Parallel studies are being conducted in central Florida and in the Long 

Island fire cycle vegetation for refining the NFDRS to other areas of 

the United States. 

Application for Management

This network of fire weather stations in the pine barrens provides realtime fire weather data access to regional fire managers by Internet 

using the New Jersey Weather and Climate Network (NJWxNet, 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet/). To support fire managers in this 

region, the Eastern Area Modeling Consortium is providing daily high 

resolution fire weather modeling (MM5 @ 1 and 4 km2) that predicts 

fire weather conditions 48 hours in advance (http://www.ncrs.fs.fed.

us/eamc/products/maps.asp).

In addition, scientists are classifying and quantifying regional fuel 

loads through the use of LIDAR, as well as the use of forest inventory 

and biomass fuel loading plots. LIDAR data is also being used to 

detect the presence of ladder fuels, which increase the probability 

Percent vegetation cover and vegetation height 

estimated from LIDAR measurements near Cedar 

Bridge fire tower. The recently burned area was the site 

of a prescribed fire 2 months previously. The unburned 

site has not burned since 1995. Data are binned in 1 

meter increments, ± 1 SD. 

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

Vegetation height (m)

Percent vegetation cover (%)

Canopy

Ladder fuels

Understory and

Forest floor

Unburned

Recent prescribed fire

of understory fires 

becoming crown 

fires (see figure).

Collectively, these 

data are being 

integrated into GIS 

layers to produce 

high-resolution maps 

of forest structure 

and fuel loading 

across the pinelands. 

These maps will 

help in prioritizing 

hazardous fuel 

reduction.

Analysis of long 

term (1930-present) 

weather records and 

wildfire history data indicates that wildfire occurrence in this region 

is largely decoupled from fire severity indices such as the KBDI and 

Buildup Index, commonly used by New Jersey fire managers. This 

project’s sensitivity analysis of the fire indices will provide better 

decision support tools for predicting fire danger.

The Pine Barrens has relatively flat topography, which, when 

combined with the new infrastructure network of towers, 

meteorological stations, and plots, presents a “model forest” 

system for validating fire models, remote sensing fuel loads, refining 

mesoscale weather models, and addressing regional air pollution and 

smoke emissions issues.

By addressing New Jersey’s priority for an improved fire danger 

rating system in the Pine Barrens, we will establish a framework for 

improving fire weather monitoring and fire danger modeling that can 

be applied in the other parts of the United States.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 19

Current Federal Wildland Fire Policy encourages wildland fire use 

(WFU) for restoring natural fire dynamics and reducing hazardous 

wildland fuel. Unroaded areas provide unique opportunities for 

applying WFU as a fuel management strategy and as a method for 

restoring the natural process of fire.

In many wilderness and other unroaded areas, however, vegetation 

conditions may preclude WFU because of excessive risks to natural 

resource values within the wilderness or to social values in the 

adjacent wildland-urban interface (WUI). In some areas, especially 

small wilderness areas with extensive WUI lands, WFU might never 

be feasible.

Even in larger unroaded areas, the argument will always exist to 

suppress some natural ignitions because of these risks. Finally, 

ignitions outside of these areas that otherwise would migrate into 

wilderness are usually suppressed—further limiting the amount of 

natural fire that can occur.

Therefore, before investing limited time and resources in developing 

and implementing a fire management plan, wildland fire and fuels 

managers can benefit from information and tools to help them evaluate 

the feasibility of WFU as a fuel reduction strategy and as a method for 

the restoration of fire.

Project Goals and Objectives

This project—funded, in part, through the Joint Fire Sciences 

Program—developed an approach to assess the feasibility and 

effectiveness of WFU as a strategy for restoring the process of fire 

and managing fuels in wilderness and other unroaded lands. The 

information generated by this research will help managers evaluate 

management objectives.

3. Helping managers devise effective strategies for managing fire and fuels for wilderness and adjacent lands

Identifying the Benefits and Risks of Fire Improves Planning

This information can help with prevention planning, 

prioritizing fuel treatments, and anticipating where to expect 

the greatest conflicts with other management objectives when 

implementing a WFU program.

Under this project, scientists developed methods for evaluating effects 

that fire suppression on one side of an administrative boundary might 

have on the other side of that boundary. They used these methods to 

evaluate how suppression of lightning-caused ignitions that occur 

outside WFU zones might affect the ability to achieve the restoration of 

fire inside the WFU zones.

Specifically, scientists examined how eliminating the importation of 

fires that start on adjacent lands affects the predicted rate of burning 

for the WFU zone. Five wilderness areas and national parks (see next 

page), were assessed to determine the availability of natural ignitions to 

determine the degree to which suppression of natural ignitions outside 

WFU zones might hinder objectives to manage natural fire regimes.

A secondary objective was to evaluate the risks and opportunities from 

WFU fires. This project’s researchers assessed the risk and opportunity 

that lightning ignitions from the WFU zone might pose to different 

values of interest within the study areas. They evaluated risks to 

areas such as the WUI and ecologically sensitive areas, and evaluated 

expected benefits to areas that are inhabited by fire-dependent species. 

This information can help with prevention planning, prioritizing fuel 

treatments, and anticipating where to expect the greatest conflicts with 

other management objectives when implementing a WFU program.

Furthermore, scientists developed and demonstrated their approach 

using multiple-study areas that have very different precipitation 

regimes. As such, the approach developed is a robust one that can 

integrate information on summer precipitation patterns as well as 

patterns of season length over elevation.
20 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Five study areas were selected that are managed primarily as 

wilderness: the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness in Idaho and Montana, 

Gila-Aldo Leopold Wilderness Complex in New Mexico, Yosemite 

and Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Parks in California, and Great 

Smoky Mountains National Park in Tennessee and North Carolina.

These study areas were selected for several reasons including: 

availability of fire history information and other data required 

for this project’s analyses, local expertise and established fire use 

programs, and for prior collaborative relationships that this project’s 

scientists had with managers. All of the study areas had approved fire 

management plans with designated WFU zones.

To accomplish project objectives, scientists used a GIS model, 

BurnPro, and the knowledge and experience of managers in each of 

their study areas.

Results

For the WFU zones identified in fire management plans, scientists 

estimated the probability of burning based on all natural ignitions 

in the study area. Ignitions falling outside of approved WFU zones 

were removed from the analysis and the probability of burning was 

recomputed.

From these analyses, the effect of eliminating the importation of fires 

that start on adjacent lands was quantified. To improve assessments 

This project directly addresses the research needs in Task 1 as 

described in the Joint Fire Science Program’s 

Request for Proposals to:

“...evaluate the impacts of alternative management

strategies” (specifically WFU) “on fire regimes in unroaded areas, 

wilderness areas, and other areas

managed for similar purposes.”

of risks and benefits, scientists also combined the information on 

probability of burning with information on resource values.

Identifying Risks and Opportunities

In addition to evaluating fire management plans, this project’s 

researchers took a more direct look at some of the risks and 

opportunities of WFU. These analyses varied among the study areas 

according to values-at-risk for each site and to site-specific requests.

Estimates of average annual probability of burning were overlaid 

with several values-at-risk to improve risk assessments. The estimates 

of probability of burning were also examined to determine where 

the greatest opportunities for WFU are located. By overlaying their 

estimates with values-to-benefit, scientists identified where WFU is 

most likely to benefit specific resources.

How is This Information Being Applied?

Through this project, estimates of probability of burning are being 

used to improve the prioritization of fire and resource management 

activities in several ways.

For example, in Yosemite National Park, areas with high probability 

of burning will be prioritized for archeological surveys—areas where 

cultural and scientific values may be at high risk.

In areas managed primarily for wilderness values, the probability 

of burning can be viewed in terms of opportunities to allow the 

natural process of fire to operate. High probabilities indicate where 

WFU opportunities are relatively common or frequent, while low 

probabilities indicate where opportunities are relatively rare.

This significant information is useful for fire management planning 

and supporting the go/no-go decision.

Project Identifier: Miller, 01.RMS.A.5,

Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Carol Miller, cmiller04@fs.fed.us, 406-542-4198.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 21

Dr. Carol Miller’s 2004 National Fire Plan (NFP) Excellence in Research 

Award was based on her success in creating an interdisciplinary 

research program that proactively addresses high priority fire and fuel 

management needs that directly align with the NFP core principles of 

collaboration, priority setting, and promotion of accountability.

Dr. Miller’s collaborative research program is truly impressive. Over 

just the past three years, 18 of her 19 NFP studies were collaboratively 

developed with four universities (Idaho, Montana, Arizona, and Montana 

State), and 40 different National Forest and National Park Service units, 

including 17 Fire Management Units.

As an ecologist with a strong ecological modeling background, Dr. Miller 

has collaborated with social scientists to develop a new and deeper 

understanding of the social dynamics that strongly affect wildland fire 

and fuel management. To develop this collaborative network, Dr. Miller 

has effectively leveraged limited NFP funds to significantly expand this 

program.

Dr. Miller’s research program is building a solid foundation of 

understanding about how fire and fuels vary over long timeframes and 

across landscapes. She and her staff designed and built two decision 

support tools: BurnPro, which allows managers to analyze where fire is 

most likely to occur, and the Fire Effects Planning Framework (FEPF), 

which allows managers to anticipate the potential consequences of fire 

and continued fire suppression to ecological and socio-economic values. 

Both tools were developed in collaboration with managers, utilizing local 

knowledge.

Both BurnPro and FEPF significantly help managers document how 

decisions are made and then communicate with the public about different 

options and consequences. Dr. Miller’s research program combines 

ecological and social science to understand the needs of fire managers in 

fulfilling all four goals of the NFP:

•	 Improving prevention and suppression. Both BurnPro and 

FEPF help managers avoid using suppression resources on 

fires that pose little or no risk, thus significantly improving 

preparedness planning.

Dr. Carol Miller Earns 2004 National Fire Plan Excellence in Research Award

•	 Reduce hazardous 

fuel. By identifying 

areas most likely to 

burn in a wildfire, 

BurnPro provides 

critical information 

for prioritizing fuel 

reduction. FEPF 

identifies where values 

are at greatest risk from 

accumulated hazardous 

fuel and is being used 

by the Bitterroot and 

Sierra national forests to 

prioritize and plan fuel 

reduction projects.

•	 Restore fire-adapted 

ecosystems. BurnPro, 

while still under 

development, is being used in three national parks (SequoiaKings Canyon, Yosemite, and Great Smoky Mountains) and two 

Forest Service wilderness areas (Selway-Bitterroot and Gila) to 

evaluate and revise fire management plans that aim to restore 

healthy, diverse, and resilient ecological systems. BurnPro is also 

being used to help understand the role of indigenous cultures and 

their use of fire in creating these landscapes.

•	 Promote community assistance. Dr. Miller’s work has 

already greatly increased local capacity to accomplish 

hazardous fuel reduction by developing tools that build upon 

existing data and use software that is already familiar to fire 

managers. Outside of this, these tools are recognized for their 

value in communicating options and consequences to the 

public. Dr. Miller’s research program is a true “success story,” 

showing a profound commitment to and success in improving 

the proactive management of fire and fuels.

Carol Miller (center) receives the 

2004 National Fire Plan Excellence in 

Research Award from Dave Tenny, Deputy 

Undersecretary for Natural Resources 

and the Environment, U.S. Department 

of Agriculture; and Rebecca Watson, 

Assistant Secretary for Land and Minerals 

Management, U.S. Department of the 

Interior.
22 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Where should we locate our firefighting resources? And where will 

fuel reduction activities be most effective? To answer these questions, 

better predictions of fire risks and fire impacts across the United 

States are needed.

In this research project, scientists are therefore producing maps that 

link weather conditions and fire occurrence since 1895. They are 

using this information to develop 3- to 12-month fire forecasts.

These short-range predictions will allow agencies to better anticipate 

firefighting needs, thereby increasing fire preparedness. Ideally, 

forecasts of fire risks would project out for two to three years. But 

even a few months’ warning is helpful to our land and fire managers.

Culprit: Climate Variability

Increased fuel loads—from a century of fire exclusion—have 

traditionally been attributed to this country’s recent large fires. 

However, climate variability is now increasingly considered to have 

had a large role in these recent fire patterns.

Thus, to understand the present fire situation and how to prepare 

for both the near- and the long-term future, fire forecasts must be 

balanced by historical analyses of fire/climate interactions.

Following two interdecadal wet/dry cycles since the mid-1970s, fire 

areas in the West have been strongly related to the Palmer Drought 

Severity Index (PDSI).

Recent climate variations are related to El-Niño/La-Niña cycles 

and various oceanic interdecadal oscillations that produced climate 

regime shifts in the mid-1940s, 1970s, and from 1988 through 1989. 

The West is currently in one of the worst droughts of the century—

following fuel buildup during strong wet cycles.

This weather pattern appears to have fostered much of this country’s 

recent severe fires.

4. Linking weather conditions and fire occurrence to better predict continental-scale trends

Observations Date Back to 1895

In this study, retrospective analyses are made possible through gridded 

weather observations that date back from 1895 to today’s most recent 

month. Simulations of the past century also are required for the model 

to estimate current fuel loading and fuel condition—albeit without fire 

suppression included in the model.

The project’s MC1 model demonstrated a highly significant correlation between 

observed vs. simulated trends in total annual area burned in the United States 

from 1960 to 2002. The observed area burned is an order of magnitude less than 

the simulated area, owing to fire suppression and other land use effects—not yet 

accounted for in the model. An ocean atmosphere climate regime shift occurred in 

1988-89 and demonstrates that the recent increase in fire area is clearly related to 

climate.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 23

The model shows good accuracy in simulating the spatial and 

temporal distributions of observed fire activity during the last four 

decades across the United States—even without accounting for fire 

suppression.

This study’s researchers have determined that while both observed and 

simulated fire areas over the United States declined slightly from 1960 

to 1988, they have increased dramatically since then.

Forecasts for the 2004 and 2005 fire seasons were updated monthly, 

based on three six-month coupled ocean-atmosphere/climate model 

forecasts. Observed fire activity was remarkably coincidental with the 

simulated distribution of fire risk. 

Products and Tools

The Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPSS) Team at the 

Pacific Northwest Research Station has developed one of two models 

in the world that can simulate most terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, 

including the location, timing, and impacts of wildfire.

Although originally developed for simulating potential climate change 

impacts, the “MC1”model is ideally suited for seasonal fire danger 

forecasting as well as for analyzing historical climate-fire interactions.

To better anticipate firefighting and management needs, the team is 

publishing experimental six-month fire-risk forecasts onto a Web site: 

http://www.fs.fed. us/pnw/corvallis/mdr/mapss/fireforecasts.htm.

Application

The forecasts and historical analyses are being used in briefings to the 

USDA Undersecretary for Natural Resources and Congress and for the 

Quadrennial Fire Review for understanding the recent historical and 

possible future fire patterns.

Because the seasonal forecasts are relatively new and experimental, 

their use on the ground is only now being explored.

Ron Neilson Receives USDA Secretary’s Honor Award for Superior Research and Volunteerism

Ron Neilson, a bioclimatologist at the Pacific Northwest Research Station’s Corvallis Forestry Sciences Laboratory—and lead 

scientist for this National Fire Plan Research and Development project—was awarded the USDA Secretary’s Honor Award. This 

award recognizes superior research and volunteerism.

Neilson received the award from USDA Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman for his efforts in “maintaining and enhancing the 

nation’s natural resources and environment, and for his contributions to understanding the potential impacts to ecosystems, water 

resources, and fire regimes under climate change at the regional, national, and global scales.”

Project Identifier: 01.PNW.A.3, Pacific Northwest Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Ronald P. Neilson, rneilson@fs.fed.us, 541-750-7303.
24 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Daily intelligence on fire locations and burned areas 

is currently compiled from ground surveys and is not 

reported until the following day. Under this project, 

scientists are therefore working on a nationwide fire 

monitoring system that will allow reporting of data with 

only a 2–4 hour delay.

This is accomplished by using satellite data to monitor 

several factors, including:

v Active fires,

v Fire severity, and

v Smoke concentrations and dispersions.

Such real-time fire information is now better assisting 

fire managers in developing fire attack strategies and 

making resource allocation decisions. 

Project Accomplishments

In working on this project, scientists have developed 

a new algorithm for mapping burn scars of large fires 

in real-time using Terra and Aqua satellite data. This 

information has been developed in conjunction with 

colleagues at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

The monitoring of burned areas is essential for determining the 

amount of fuel consumed and pollutants produced. (A manuscript 

detailing this work has been published by IEEE Transactions on 

Geoscience and Remote Sensing.)

Scientists have also carried out a series of field experiments to 

validate the aerosol levels—measured by the MODIS instrument 

on the Terra and Aqua satellites—during the Western Amazon and 

5. Providing real-time fire monitoring nationwide to improve fire attack strategies 

and resource allocation decisions

Thailand’s fire seasons. (Researchers conducted these experiments in 

tropical countries to avoid the high cost of conducting such activities 

in the United States.)

This project’s researchers developed a new map production software 

package used to automate the formerly manual process of displaying 

satellite images and MODIS hotspots on a nationwide map. 
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 25

In this country, during severe fire seasons in Montana and Idaho, 

researchers provided active fire locations and fire perimeters in near 

real-time twice every day to the Northern Rockies Multiagency 

Coordination Group. The daily nationwide fire maps that were 

generated were sent to the National Incident Information Center. 

They were also used as part of the Chief’s briefing materials to the 

White House, Congress, and other Federal agencies on “next day” fire 

situations.

Improving the Process

The researchers’ new map production software package is now being 

used to automate the formerly manual process of displaying satellite 

images and MODIS hotspots on a nationwide map 

(http://www.firelab.org). This map is updated as new data become 

available.

Project Identifier:

Hao, 01.RMS.A.2, 

Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist:

Wei Min Hao, whao@fs.fed.us, 406-329-4838.

The software of fire behavior model FARSITE has also been 

“reengineered” to ingest real-time satellite-derived burn scars as 

starting points for fire spread projections.

One of this project’s undertakings included a series of field 

experiments that were carried out to map fire radiative energy 

emitted from the 2005 Bull Fire in New Mexico’s Black Range 

Complex of the Gila National Forest, as well as from several 

wildfires along Interstate I-90 in Missoula, MT.

Using this data, scientists were able to compare the fire radiative 

energy measured by the two radiometers with the fire radiative 

energy predicted by the plume rise model PLUMP.
26 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Through various burning experiments, scientists have developed a 

database of 280 laboratory-scale experiments to examine the effects 

of environmental variables (wind speed, ambient temperature, relative 

humidity) and fuel characteristics (fuel type, moisture content, fuel 

loading, depth of fuel bed, slope/topography) on marginal burning in 

chaparral fuels.

These modeling efforts have been useful in understanding the 

relative roles of convective and radiation heat transfer effects on 

marginal burning behavior. Scientists have also completed a detailed 

experimental study that is focused on characterizing fire plumes over 

chaparral fuel.

In addition, they have initiated modeling and experimental studies 

for understanding the transition from ground to crown fires—an area 

about which researchers and land managers know very little about. 

Such an undertaking is therefore critical to gaining knowledge and 

insights into this wildland fire dynamic.

Enhancing Fire Spread Models

This project’s scientists also studied how live fuel fire brands cause 

faster spread rates by two mechanisms:

6. Enabling managers to better anticipate fire risks in chaparral fuels

Even though wildfires occur in live vegetation, since the 1960s, little fundamental research has been performed to understand the 

dynamics of fire ignition and fire spread in live fuels. In addressing this, researchers are now conducting laboratory and field-based 

experiments to better understand and model combustion processes within these fuels. The findings and information from this research 

will help managers better anticipate fire risks.

1. Many brands land directly in front of the fire line. This is 

an unexplored mechanism of increasing the contiguous 

fire spread rate.

2. Lofted fire brands can initiate spot fires well ahead of the 

contiguous fire. This is a well-known phenomenon which 

must be quantified if prescribed burning is to become 

accepted as a safe fuel management tool.

Thus, the researchers’ goal was to begin incorporating both of these 

mechanisms into their existing physics-based fire spread rate model. 

At the same time, they continued to develop the comparisons of this 

model and LANL’s FIRETEC model with the laboratory fire spread 

data for live fuels from the University of California Riverside and the 

field fire spread data for live fuels from the University of California 

Berkeley.

These developments have enhanced FIRETEC as a research model for 

fire behavior.

Combustion Data Findings

Under this project, qualitative and quantitative combustion data were 

also obtained in a flat-flame burner facility to serve as representative 
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 27

samples of the four species representative of California chaparral 

(manzanita, scrub oak, ceanothus, and chamise), as well as the four 

Utah species (gambel oak, sagebrush, juniper, and bigleaf maple).

The ignition point was determined based on frame-by-frame analysis 

of video images and correlated with thermocouple readings.

Subsequent findings included that the moisture content varied—

mainly due to the storage time in the lab. Average ignition 

temperatures of high moisture broadleaf samples were found 

to be as much as 120°C higher than ignition temperatures of 

corresponding low moisture samples.

At high moisture content, severe bubbling caused small craters 

in the surface of the manzanita leaves prior to ignition. Visual 

differences were also observed in the ignition behavior of the other 

two plant species.

Project Identifier: 01.PSW.A.3, Pacific Southwest Research Station. Lead Scientist: David R. Weise; dweise@fs.fed.us; 909-680-1543.
28 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Accomplishments

Rehabilitation and Restoration

In the aftermath of a wildland fire event, federal, state, and local agencies strive to:

v Maintain the quality of water;

v Minimize the negative impacts of accelerated runoff, erosion, and 

sedimentation; and

v Ensure optimal recovery of vegetation and ecosystems.

Results of the National Fire Plan Research and Development—as outlined in this 

section—are helping managers to:

v Apply appropriate and cost-effective restoration and post-fire rehabilitation 

treatments, and

v Develop improved procedures for monitoring treatment effects.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 29

Characterizing the risks of 

wildfire and fuel management 

in aquatic systems

Significant resources are used 

to manage fire and fuel and to 

mitigate the effects of past fire 

suppression. At the same time, 

substantial resources have been 

invested in restoring watersheds 

and fostering recovery of sensitive 

species. Limited information on 

the effects of fires and fire-related 

management on aquatic systems 

makes it difficult to determine the 

benefits of the substantial costs 

that are incurred. Scientists in 

central Idaho are therefore working 

to quantify the influence of large 

fires, post-fire climatic events, and 

post-fire management on watershed 

processes and the persistence of 

sensitive aquatic species. Better understanding of when and where fire represents a threat to aquatic ecosystems will enhance managers’ ability to 

characterize risk and prioritize fire and fuel management and post-fire rehabilitation efforts. 

Rehabilitation and Restoration Accomplishments

Project Identifier: Rieman, 02.RMS.B.1, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Bruce Rieman, brieman@fs.fed.us, 208-373-4386.

Thinning unit on the Apache-Sitgreaves Natinal Forest survives the severity of the 

Rodeo-Chediski Fire’s flame front. Photo: Tom Iraci, U.S. Forest Service.
30 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Developing techniques 

to prevent weedy species 

invasions that increase fire 

size, frequency

Researchers are looking at the 

effectiveness of tools—such as 

prescribed fire—to restore and 

sustain native grasslands, and to 

help reduce the incursion of woody 

plants. A study was completed by 

using calorimetry to document 

population differences in important 

shrub species and biological soil 

crusts. The study documented 

the physiological differences in 

optimal growth temperatures of 

southern and northern collections—

refining significant information for 

restoration work efforts.

Project Identifier:

Finch, 01.RMS.B.7, Rocky

Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist:

Deborah Finch, dfinch@fs.fed.us,

505-724-3671.

Diseased dead and dying stand on Oregon’s Deschutes National Forest. Photo: Tom Iraci, U.S. Forest Service. 
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 31

Improving our ability to estimate post-fire 

risks of flooding, soil erosion, and drinking 

water contamination

Increases in post-fire nutrient loading (especially nitrate) 

on water quality are of concern across all landscapes. In 

the past, several watershed models have been developed 

to predict runoff and sediment yield, but little effort has 

been directed specifically toward modeling the effects 

of wildfire and prescribed fire on forest hydrology. 

Researchers are therefore testing and applying nutrient 

cycling and hydrology models (NuCM and MIKE-SHE) 

to determine their effectiveness in predicting impacts of 

fire on hydrological, nutrient cycling, and soil erosion 

processes. Results will improve managers’ ability to 

estimate post-fire risks of flooding, severe soil erosion, 

and contamination of drinking water.

Project Identifier: Vose, 02.SRS.B.1,

Southern Research Station.

Lead Scientist: James M. Vose,

jvose@fs.fed.us, 828-524-2128.

Researchers incorporating predictive post-fire models to help protect native fish and human health and safety

Fire exhibits intensity at night. Photo: Tom Iraci, U.S. Forest Service. 

The huge and high-severity wildfires being experienced in the 

southwest now pose the greatest threat—than in the past 10,000 

years—to native and Threatened and Endangered fish in this part of 

the country. After fires are extinguished, post wildfire peak flood flows 

become the major threat to watershed resources, cultural resources, and 

human health and safety. Information on waterflow patterns and the 

geology of sites is critical for assessing the risks of post-fire erosion 

and flooding. Researchers are working to incorporate these factors into 

predictive models that will provide managers with better support for 

burned area emergency rehabilitation decisions. The past three years, 

information has been collected on the native fish population impacts 

from seven Arizona and New Mexico wildfires where post-wildfire 

floods have the potential to eliminate 80 to 100% of both native and 

non-native fish populations.

Project Identifier: Neary, 01.RMS.B.1, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Lead Scientist: Daniel G. Neary, dneary@fs.fed.us, 928-556-2176.
32 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Ensuring the correct native seed supplies are available to 

land managers for burned area restoration

Management objectives increasingly require burned areas to be restored 

using native plant species. The availability of these species, however, is 

low. Furthermore, little information is available on what native species 

would work best on specific burn areas. Scientists are therefore working 

on identifying and characterizing native species’ potential for use and 

are also developing practices for seed production and protocols for 

seed warehousing. This effort will help ensure native seed supplies are 

available to land management agencies.

Project Identifier: McArthur, 01.RMS.B.2,

Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: E. Durant McArthur,

dmcarthur@fs.fed.us, 801-356-5112.

Understanding the ecological, economic, and social 

consequences of wildfire and rehabilitation on forest health

Wildfire, fuel reduction, and thinning treatments create conditions that 

encourage the establishment of weed species and may even increase 

the susceptibility of trees to diseases. Interdisciplinary research is 

now being targeted to understand the ecological, economic, and social 

consequences of wildfire and rehabilitation efforts on southwestern 

forest health. This information will be used in developing guidelines for 

post-fire vegetation management.

Project Identifier: Clancy, 01.RMS.B.4,

Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Karen Clancy,

BAER Team-directed fire rehabilitation activities in the wildland-urban kclancy@fs.fed.us, 928-556-2105.

interface on the Coronado National Forest following the 2003 Bullock Fire. 

Photos: Tom Iraci, U.S. Forest Service. 
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 33

Highlight Projects

Rehabilitation and 

Restoration Accomplishments

1. Jan Beyers and Pete Robichaud, Pacific Southwest Research Station:

Measuring the effectiveness of post-fire emergency rehabilitation to help managers select effective treatments .....34

2. Jeanne C. Chambers, Rocky Mountain Research Station:

Developing management techniques to prevent weedy species invasions that increase fire size, frequency............... 35

3. Edward J. DePuit, Pacific Northwest Research Station:

Researchers providing managers with improved information on choosing alternative vegetation treatments.......... 36
34 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

While expenditures for post-fire rehabilitation—including contourfelled logs, surface raking, and native grass seeding—have increased 

dramatically in recent years, little quantitative information exists on 

the effectiveness of these treatments in reducing sediment movement 

and water output from burned areas.

Researchers involved in this project are therefore initiating studies 

to measure runoff and sediment production from watersheds that 

are receiving various emergency rehabilitation treatments. This 

information will help managers select future emergency treatments 

that are most likely to be effective.

Investigating Treatment Effectiveness

Each year, after wildfire, millions of dollars are spent on emergency 

stabilization and rehabilitation treatments to protect life, property, and 

natural resources from increased erosion and flooding. Yet, because 

the effectiveness of many of these rehabilitation methods has never 

been tested quantitatively, it is difficult for Burned Area Emergency 

Rehabilitation (BAER) teams to realistically assess the short- and 

long-term benefits of their prescribed treatments relative to their 

economic and ecological costs.

As part of this research project, in Fiscal Year 2005, a new site 

on the Umatilla National Forest was established to investigate the 

effectiveness of two mulch treatments, including wood “straw” and 

native grass seeding. Because it does not contain potential weed 

seeds, wood straw may have advantages over wheat or rice straw.

This project’s scientists also helped the southern California national 

forests continue their BAER effectiveness monitoring of the fall 2003 

1. Measuring the effectiveness of post-fire emergency rehabilitation to help managers select effective treatments

Because the effectiveness of many of these rehab methods has never been tested quantitatively, it is 

difficult for BAER teams to realistically assess the short- and long-term benefits.

southern California large fires. As part of this project, data from the 

research study on the Cedar Fire (fall 2003, examining effectiveness of 

aerial hydromulch) were written up for the Capitan Grande Indian Tribe.

Preliminary Results

In Fiscal Year 2005 this project’s scientists continued measurements at 

various study sites to test the effectiveness of contour-felled logs—a 

popular but expensive treatment for reducing post-fire runoff and 

sedimentation. They also examined the efficiency of various mulch 

treatments.

Associated efforts are currently underway for various post-fire 

rehabilitation treatments, including:

•	 Analyzing collected data,

•	 Developing treatment guidelines, and

•	 Refining site application criteria.

Preliminary results suggest that rainfall intensity is one of the most 

important drivers for the erosion response. In addition, mulch 

treatments are performing better than barrier-type treatments (log 

erosion barriers, straw wattles, contour-felled logs). Mulch treatment 

functionality, however, is governed by rainfall characteristics. Annual 

recovery of sites demonstrate a marked decrease in erosion, except 

for those sites influenced by monsoon climates—where recovery 

generally takes longer.

The addition of a new study site and continued accumulation of data 

from existing sites have resulted in numerous technology transfer 

opportunities. This project’s team members provided presentations on 

this work to both scientific and management groups.

Project Identifier: 01.PSW.B.1, Pacific Southwest Research Station.

Lead Scientists: Jan Beyers, jbeyers@fs.fed.us, 909-680-1527; Pete Robichaud, probichaud@fs.fed.us, 208-883-2349.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 35

The proliferation of fire-adapted invasive species, such as cheatgrass in the Great Basin, is 

negatively impacting ecosystems by increasing fire frequency, intensity, and size.

Under this project, factors that make ecosystems particularly susceptible to these “invasions” 

were examined. Researchers developed improved equations for determining fuel loads for 

Great Basin woodland trees. In Joint Fire Sciences Program-funded measurement plots used to 

demonstrate fuel treatments, fuel loads for these trees were determined.

Because ecosystem susceptibility to invasion by nonnative species is poorly understood, data 

and findings from this research are helping to determine how several interacting factors—

including climate, disturbance regime, and the competitive abilities of resident species—are 

making Great Basin sagebrush ecosystems so susceptible to invasive species such as cheatgrass.

2. Developing management techniques to prevent weedy species invasions that increase fire size, frequency

This project’s lead scientist, Jeanne C. Chambers. 

v Improved equations for determining fuel loads for Great 

Basin woodland trees—including fuel loads for trees in 

Joint Fire Science demonstration area plots.

v Techniques and a devise for safely conducting small plot 

burns in Great Basin shrub and woodlands.

Significant Research Accomplishments

This research project included a special course taught by the project’s 

lead scientist, Jeanne C. Chambers, and Robin Tausch at the University 

of Nevada, Reno, NV. The course was entitled “Effects of Fire on Great 

Basin Ecosystems.” 

Scientists involved in this project also presented special field trips to 

their demonstration watershed and invasive species study areas for land 

managers and other researchers, as well as for the general public. 

Under this project, scientists have successfully developed: 

v Protocols for determining when prescribed fire can be 

implemented without risk of conversion to invasive plants.

Project Identifier: 01.RMS.B.5, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Jeanne C. Chambers, jchambers@fs.fed.us, 775-784-5329.
36 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Unfortunately, efforts to reduce fuel amounts before fires, and to 

restore vegetation after fires, can encourage the spread of weeds. 

These weeds then crowd-out native plants and negatively impact 

ecosystems.

Therefore, researchers are now providing managers with improved 

information on the relative risks of choosing alternative vegetation 

treatments. They are monitoring the effects of fuel reduction and 

restoration treatments on the spread of weeds. They have adapted and 

3. Researchers providing managers with improved information on choosing alternative vegetation treatments

developed landscape invasive plant sampling methods in Oregon’s 

upper Grande Ronde River basin study area.

In performing this new study, researchers also discovered a major, 

previously undetected landscape-scale invasive plant infestation, 

Ventenata dubia—or, north Africa grass. Thus, a new study of V. dubia 

has been initiated in cooperation with the Wallowa-Whitman National 

Forest.

This project’s scientists have:

v Completed syntheses of available literature on ecology 

and relationships of invasive plant species to disturbances 

(including fire) and management practices in the Pacific 

Northwest. This vital information was utilized by the 

Forest Service’s Pacific Northwest Region in preparing 

the region’s draft invasive species Environmental Impact 

Statement.

v Continued the development of Invasive Species Risk 

Assessment protocols for use by land managers in 

designing fuel reduction and other fire management 

practices from stand to landscape scales.

v Developed and refined forest growth transitions using 

the Forest Vegetation Simulator—including the effects of 

large ungulate herbivory (deer, elk, cattle).

v Initiated the refinement of invasive plant modules based 

on information from field studies in Oregon’s upper 

Grande Ronde River Basin.

Significant Research Accomplishments

v Completed a study on the comparative and competitive 

pollination biology of native vs. naturalized Potentilla

species and associated rare native plants in Idaho and 

Oregon. Studies were also completed on the age structure 

and seed dispersal biology of Potentilla recta populations 

in eastern Oregon. Outcomes of these studies are helping 

to determine the differential responses of invasive 

and native plants in the aftermath of fire and other 

disturbances.

v Developed detection and monitoring approaches 

for invasive plant species in fire-prone ecosystems 

by completing a key for the identification and 

characterization of common Potentilla species in 

eastern Oregon that are enabling land managers to more 

accurately detect this genus (which includes several key 

invasive species).

v Increased the fundamental understanding of the biology 

and ecology of key invasive plant species in fire-prone 
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 37

ecosystems. Specifically, particular progress has been 

made on a series of eastern Oregon studies on the biology, 

ecology, and management of sulfur cinquefoil (Potentilla 

recta)—an invasive species of increasing regional 

concern. Studies on aging, population age distribution and 

reproductive dynamics (seed production and dispersal) 

of sulfur cinquefoil, have been completed and published. 

Outcomes from this important research will now prove 

useful in predicting population characteristics of this 

species following wildfire and fuel reduction treatments. 

v Increased the understanding of responses of key invasive 

plant species to fire, fuel/vegetation management and 

other associated disturbances. Preliminary analyses of 

findings from a retrospective study of a time-series of 

antecedent fuel reduction treatments (thinning, prescribed 

burning, and thinning+burning) are elucidating the 

effects of these treatments on invasive plant species in 

eastern Washington. Under this research, the combining 

of burning and thinning to reduce fuels has been found 

to significantly increase cover and richness of invasive 

plants—whereas burning and thinning alone had a 

negligible effect on non-native species. However, no 

fuel reduction treatment significantly changed native 

understory species cover or richness. Results also suggest 

that increasing the size (acreage) of individual prescribed 

burning projects also increased the resultant cover of 

invasive understory plant species.

v Published the outcomes of related work on relationships 

among the timing of prescribed fire, livestock grazing, and 

invasive plant species in eastern Oregon. These findings 

indicate that spring prescribed burning may be preferable 

to fall burning from a non-native species invasion 

standpoint. Findings also suggest that the synergistic 

effects of prescribed fire and livestock grazing decreased 

cover/growth of perennial native plant species while 

stimulating short-lived exotic and native species. These and 

other findings will now help to inform the development 

of fuel and vegetation management practices that address 

invasive plant species concerns in the interior northwest 

and elsewhere—as well as enhance the restoration of these 

ecosystems impacted by invasive plants.

“The outcomes of these studies will shed light on causes for differential responses of 

invasive and native plants in the aftermath of fire and other disturbances.”

 “Findings from this research indicate that spring prescribed burning may be preferable 

to fall burning from a non-native species invasion standpoint.”

Project Identifier: 01.PNW.B.1, Pacific Northwest Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Edward J. DePuit, ejdepuit@fs.fed.us, 509-664-1715.
38 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Accomplishments

Hazardous Fuel Reduction

A National Fire Plan key focus is the successful management of forest and

rangeland fuels to reduce fire risk to communities and fire damage to ecosystems.

As this section illustrates, National Fire Plan Research and Development on 

hazardous fuel reduction is helping managers:

v Set priorities,

v Determine appropriate treatment regimes, and

v Balance the often complex tradeoffs between the benefits of managing fuel

to reduce fire intensity and severity—and the possible social, environmental,

and ecological impacts of mechanical and prescribed fire treatments.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 39

Achieving fuel reduction goals and restoring riparian zones 

to healthy conditions

Due to the absence of flooding and fire, many stream ecosystems throughout the 

Rocky Mountains are undergoing vegetation changes. This is reducing the potential 

for these sites to house a variety of threatened, endangered and state-listed species. 

Researchers are measuring populations of these animals and their critical habitat 

in burned and unburned riparian areas in Montana and New Mexico. Their results 

will supply guidance for restoring riparian zones to healthy conditions while 

simultaneously achieving fuel reduction goals. 

Project Identifier: Finch, 01.RMS.C.8, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Deborah Finch, dfinch@fs.fed.us, 505-724-3671.

Determining fuel reduction effects on sensitive riparian zones

While we have quite a bit of information on wildfire effects, little information 

exists on the effects of prescribed fire on stream ecosystems. The use of prescribed 

fire in riparian areas is currently being debated in the Sierra Nevada. Researchers 

will determine the magnitude and duration of effects from both prescribed fire and 

mechanical treatments on the physical, chemical, and biological components of 

forest stream ecosystems and their associated watersheds. Results from this study 

will help guide managers in selecting fuel reduction treatments best suited for these 

sensitive zones. This research is planned to continue for approximately 12 years. 

It started with baseline data collection in 2002, will require four years of baseline 

data collection, two years for fuel treatments, and five to seven years of posttreatment data collection.

Project Identifier: Hunsaker, 01.PSW.C.1, Pacific Southwest Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Carolyn T. Hunsaker, chunsaker@fs.fed.us, 559-323-3211.

Hazardous Fuel Reduction Accomplishments

Rehabilitation site on Santa Fe National Forest two years after the 

Cerro Grande Fire. Photo: Tom Iraci, U.S. Forest Service. 
40 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

The January 2001 Record of Decision (Sierra Nevada Forest Plan 

Amendment) institutes a new forest management regime with 

the intent of balancing the positive and negative effects of fuel 

management on an array of ecological and socioeconomic values. 

Presently, however, there is inadequate scientific information 

on which to base projections of forest response under different 

management alternatives. Therefore, increased knowledge about 

effects of alternative landscape-level fuel treatment strategies is 

Integrated research on fire and fuel management, landscape dynamics, and fish and wildlife resources

needed. Thus, under this research project, scientists’ efforts are 

directed at evaluating the effects of the Herger Feinstein Quincy 

Library Group Pilot Project approach on:

1) California spotted owl and other wide-ranging species,

2) subsequent size and severity of wildfires, and

3) other large-scale ecosystem components and processes.

Project Identifier: Stine, 02.PSW.C.1, Pacific Southwest Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Peter Stine, pstine@fs.fed.us, 530-759-1703.

Management alternatives for fire-dependent ecosystems in Colorado and the Black Hills

Fire suppression and exclusion throughout the Central Rocky Mountains have resulted in conditions that make the risk of catastrophic fires 

likely to occur. Researchers are gathering information on the types and methods of fuel reduction alternatives best suited to treating these high 

fuel levels to restore a more natural mix of ecological conditions, simultaneously reintroducing fire as a management tool. 

Project Identifier: Joyce, 01.RMS.C.4, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Lead Scientist: Linda A. Joyce, ljoyce@fs.fed.us, 970-498-2560.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 41

Investigating the impacts of exotic weeds on fuel loadings 

and fire regimes on native sagebrush plains

The cycle of wildfires and annual weed invasion has altered millions 

of acres of western shrublands and grasslands by reducing plant and 

animal diversity and increasing fire size and frequency. Scientists are 

working on quantifying effects of weedy species on native sagebrush 

plains. Study results will provide managers with new tools and plant 

resources for reestablishing and protecting biological diversity. 

Project Identifier: Shaw, 01.RMS.C.1, Rocky Mountain 

Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Nancy L. Shaw, nshaw@fs.fed.us, 208-373-4360.

Measuring the impacts of fuel management treatments 

on forest soil erosion and production

Soil erosion, soil compaction, soil productivity, and soil microbial 

processes perform a critical role in forest health. They can all be 

impacted by fuel management treatments. Scientists are investigating 

the effects of fuel management treatments—including thinning, 

salvage logging, and prescribed fire—on soil characteristics. The 

resulting information will be incorporated into computer models that 

can be used by managers to assist in fuel management decisions. 

Project Identifier: Eliot and Page-Dumroese, 01.RMS.C.3,

Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientists: William Elliot, welliot@fs.fed.us, 208-883-2338; 

Deborah Page-Dumroese, ddumroese@fs.fed.us, 208-883-2339.

Combining fire and herbicide treatments to reduce fire 

intensity in high-risk areas

Most fuel reduction efforts in Florida’s industrial forests—often 

located adjacent to wildland-urban interface areas—involve using 

herbicides. However, after herbicide application, a two-year time lag 

exists before fire danger is significantly reduced. Researchers are 

therefore examining the effectiveness of a treatment to reduce fuel 

buildup that combines prescribed fire with herbicide treatments. If 

effective, this new treatment regime could provide another option to 

managers for fuel reduction in these high-risk areas. 

Project Identifier: O’Brien, 01.SRS.C.5, Southern Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Joseph O’Brien; jjobrien@fs.fed.us; 706-559-4337.
42 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

An integrated system for managing 

fuel loads at the wildland-urban 

interface

In some areas, rapid human population 

growth and the increasing extent of 

wildland-urban interface have made the use 

of prescribed fire as a fuel reduction tool 

nearly impossible. In the South, researchers 

are developing an integrated system to 

manage fuel loads through mechanical 

means to treat “urban woodlands.” This 

study will provide managers with fuel 

reduction techniques that are both effective 

and socially acceptable. 

Project Identifier: Stanturf, 01.SRS.C.4,

Southern Research Station.

Lead Scientist: John Stanturf,

jstanturf@fs.fed.us, 706-559-4316.

Using spatial models to better understand fire suppression and fire regimes in the Great Lake region

Changing land uses and fire suppression during the past century have greatly altered the frequency, intensity, extent, and severity of fire on 

the landscape. Researchers are using spatial models to better understand the effects of past and current land uses, and of fire suppression on 

fire regimes in the Great Lakes Region. Results of this research will be used to develop guidelines for reducing fuel loads.

Project Identifier: Palik, 01.NCS.C.1, North Central Research Station. Lead Scientist: Brian Palik, bpalik@fs.fed.us, 218-326-7100.

Severe effects on the 2003 wildland-urban interface Rodeo-Chediski Fire in the Southwestern Region. 

Photo: Tom Iraci, U.S. Forest Service. 
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 43

Assessing and mitigating fire risk for landowners in 

the southern wildland-urban interface areas— and 

establishing a wildland-urban interface research and 

technology transfer unit for the south

This research examines multiple components of fuels as they relate to 

fire hazard for wildland-urban interface landowners. Specific projects 

address interface landscape characteristics and fire risk, flammability 

ratings of southern fuel, landowner risk assessment procedures, and 

fuel management options for landowners.

With the steady rise of new homes in southern forestlands, wildland 

firefighters and small forest land owners need information and 

technology to deal with the unique issues of preventing, fighting and 

mitigating fire in the wildland-urban interface. The Southern Research 

Station is establishing a center for fire prevention and pre-suppression 

information for federal, state, and local firefighting units in the South, 

especially those who work in the wildland-urban interface. 

Project Identifier: Macie, 01.SRS.A.3,

Southern Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Edward Macie,

emacie@fs.fed.us, 404-347-1647.

Effects of wildland fire and fuel treatments on vertebrates

Many birds and mammals depend on wildland fire for some aspect 

of their life history. Within ponderosa pine systems, historical fire 

regimes resulted in shifting mosaics of burned and unburned areas 

across the landscape. Little is known, however, about animal and plant 

responses to wildfire, fire exclusion, or fuel management treatments 

designed to mimic pre-settlement conditions. Researchers are studying 

effects of wildfire and fuel treatments—prescribed fire and mechanical 

thinning used singly and in combination—on breeding and nonbreeding birds and small mammals in the Intermountain West and 

Rocky Mountain Regions. This information will help land managers 

assess cumulative effects and evaluate ecological trade-offs when 

considering options for treating and managing fuels. 

Project Identifier: Block, 02.RMS.C.2,

Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientists: William Block,

wblock@fs.fed.us, 928-556-2161;

and Victoria Saab, vsaab@fs.fed.us, 406-994-5032.
44 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Restoring fire-dependent ecosystems in the northeast’s previously oak-dominated forests

BAER rehab project efforts on the Coronado National Forest’s Bullock Fire area (left), and aspen rejuvenating on the Santa Fe National Forest’s Cerro Grande post-fire area. 

Photos: Tom Iraci, U.S. Forest Service. 

Previously oak-dominated forests in the northeast portion of the 

country are shifting to maple dominance due to fire suppression 

over many years. While prescribed fire and thinning treatments 

may restore oak dominance, information on fuel, fire behavior, 

and fire weather to guide these efforts in this region is lacking. An 

interdisciplinary team of scientists is therefore developing models to 

understand how fire and thinning can best be used to restore these 

fire-dependent ecosystems.

Project Identifier: Dickinson, 01.NES.C.1, Northeastern Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Matthew Dickinson, mbdickinson@fs.fed.us, 740-368-0096.

Examining the implications of forest vegetation structure on burn severity and succession after fire

Fuel management, forest growth, and forest health all interact to 

affect fire behavior. Researchers are studying these interactions 

to examine the implications of forest vegetation structure on 

burn severity and succession after fire. Information from these 

studies will be integrated into existing fire modeling systems that 

managers can use to develop fuel management treatments.

Project Identifier: Ferguson, 01.RMS.C.2, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Dennis E. Ferguson, deferguson@fs.fed.us, 208-883-2315.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 45

Researching the environmental and economic impacts of 

biomass reduction in the Northwest and Southeast

Reducing fuel buildups—with or without prescribed fire—may 

adversely impact the environment through: 1) increased erosion and 

runoff, 2) reduction in stored carbon and forest health, or 3) damage 

to remaining vegetation. Integrated information on the impacts of 

biomass reduction operations on soil, water, and forest health is 

sparse. Scientists are therefore carrying out a series of integrated 

interdisciplinary studies in the Northwest and Southeast on thinning 

operations impacts to reduce forest biomass levels on terrestrial and 

aquatic ecosystems. This information will help managers to both 

assess the impacts to ecosystems and select the appropriate fuel 

reduction alternative. 

Project Identifier: Elliot, 02.RMS.C.1,

 Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: William J. Elliot,

 welliot@fs.fed.us, 208-883-2338.

Determining the impacts of fuel management 

treatments on forest soil erosion and production

Soil erosion, soil compaction, soil productivity and soil microbial 

processes perform a critical role in forest health. All of these 

processes can be impacted by fuel management treatments. Scientists 

are therefore investigating the effects on soil characteristics from 

fuel management treatments such as thinning, salvage logging, and 

prescribed fire. The resulting information will be incorporated into 

computer models that can be used by managers to assist in fuel 

management decisions. 

Project Identifier: Elliot, 01.RMS.C.3,

 Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientists:William J. Elliot,

 welliot@fs.fed.us, 208-883-2338;

 Deborah Page-Dumroese,

 ddumroese@fs.fed.us, 208-883-2339.
46 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Quantifying the ecological and economic tradeoffs of fire and its surrogate options in the Southern Appalachians

Rapidly growing urban/wildland interface areas of the Piedmont and 

Southern Appalachians are at risk from fire due to dangerous fuel 

buildups. Use of prescribed fire to reduce fuel levels, however, has 

been limited due to concerns of erosion, air quality, and fear of fire 

escapes. Building on continuing studies, researchers will look at the 

effectiveness of herbicides and herbicide/fire treatment effectiveness 

in managing these areas. Research results will provide managers 

with a broader array of options for achieving management goals by 

providing an understanding of potential tradeoffs to vegetation, fuels, 

mammals, reptiles, amphibians, birds, soils, diseases, insects, and 

economics. This project adds a National Fire and Fire Surrogate Study 

site in the southern Appalachian Mountains. It also adds herbicide 

treatment capability to the existing Piedmont site.

Project Identifier: Waldrop, 01.SRS.C.2, Southern Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Thomas A. Waldrop, twaldrop@fs.fed.us, 864-656-5054.

Assessing effects of alternative fuel management treatments on southwestern wildland-urban interface forests

Due to changes in forest density, the efforts to reduce fuels in Arizona 

and New Mexico forests are being challenged. Treatments that 

maintain forest productivity and health, sustain resource values, and 

are socially acceptable need to be identified and implemented. To 

develop such acceptable alternatives that still meet fuel reduction 

objectives, researchers are assessing effects of alternative fuel 

management treatments on forest characteristics. To further refine 

treatment prescriptions that minimize potential for crown fires in 

uneven-aged forest stands, researchers are also developing improved 

process-based models of fire behavior.

Project Identifier: Edminster, 01.RMS.C.5, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Carl Edminster, cedminster@fs.fed.us, 928-580-5973.

Identifying high wildland fire risk areas and reducing future fuel loads within the Eastern United States

Current fire behavior models used for assessing wildfire risk can be 

improved with additional site specific and remotely sensed vegetation 

data and regional modeling of woody vegetation growth. Researchers 

are gathering this additional information to help managers identify 

areas of high fire risk, and to develop management options to reduce 

future fuel loads. 

Project Identifier: 01.SRS.C.1, Southern Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Steve McNulty, steve_mcnulty@ncsu.edu, 919-515-9489.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 47

The 2003 Rodeo-Chediski Fire in the Southwestern Region burned hundreds of 

homes. Photo: Tom Iraci, U.S. Forest Service. 

Quantifying tradeoffs of fire-fuel management options

Widespread fuel reduction treatments are needed throughout the South, 

particularly within the rapidly growing wildland-urban interfaces of the 

Coastal Plains. For decades, prescribed burning has been used in the 

Coastal Plain to reduce fuel loads. Now, however, this treatment is under 

regulatory pressure. At issue are adverse air quality and transportation 

safety impacts from prescribed burning smoke, as well as the potential 

for property losses if these burns should escape into the wildland-urban 

interface. While alternative fuel reduction treatments are attractive, the 

appropriate balance among cutting, mechanical fuel treatment, herbicide, 

and prescribed fire is often unclear. This study therefore examines the 

tradeoffs and effects of alternative fuel treatments. Results will provide 

managers with a broader array of options for achieving management 

goals.

Project Identifier: Outcalt, 01.SRS.C.3, Southern Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Kenneth W. Outcalt, koutcalt@fs.fed.us, 706-559-4309.

Achieving fuel reduction goals and restoring riparian zones 

to healthy conditions

Due to the absence of flooding and fire, many stream ecosystems 

throughout the Rocky Mountains are undergoing vegetation changes. 

This is reducing the potential for these sites to house a variety of 

threatened, endangered and state-listed species. Researchers are 

measuring populations of these animals and their critical habitat in 

burned and unburned riparian areas in Montana and New Mexico. Their 

results will supply guidance for restoring riparian zones to healthy 

conditions while simultaneously achieving fuel reduction goals. 

Project Identifier: Finch, 01.RMS.C.8, Rocky Mountain

Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Deborah Finch, dfinch@fs.fed.us, 505-724-3671.
48 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Highlight Projects

Hazardous Fuel

Reduction Accomplishments

1. John F. Hunt, Forest Products Laboratory:

Reducing fire risks in forests: Increasing the incentive to reduce hazardous fuel through harvesting

and utilizing small diameter and crooked trees.........................................................................................................49

2. Robert F. Powers, Pacific Southwest Research Station:

Exploring alternatives to prescribed fire for reducing fuels inside California’s high-risk

urban-interface zones ................................................................................................................................................. 51

3. David B. Sandberg, Pacific Northwest Research Station:

Developing ground-based support for mapping fuel and fire hazard for land managers........................................53
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 49

1. Reducing fire risks in forests:

Increasing the incentive to reduce hazardous fuel through 

harvesting and utilizing small diameter and crooked trees

One of this project’s original objectives was to determine if curved material 

could be straightened to be successfully processed through sawmills and 

then used in I-beams or other engineered products.

Removal of forest undergrowth can help to sustain healthy 

forests. Currently, however, much of this type of material is felled 

and left on the ground or is simply chipped and burned.

To reduce fire risks in forests, researchers involved in this study 

are therefore working to develop marketable products from forest 

undergrowth and underutilized timber.

To date, three methods have been developed for using small trees 

that currently have little value and are seldom used.

Utilization of “No-”or “Low-Value” Forest Thinnings

Research from this project has also developed information 

being considered by the private sector for a low-cost processing 

method for the raw material (with bark) that confirms that fibrous 

material can be made using a chip, fiberization, and refining 

process.

Under this research, the potential strength properties have been 

evaluated and shown to be equal or greater than the minimum 

standards for hardboard.

Reducing Fire Risks: Scientists in this research project have illustrated that 

marketable products can be developed using the forest undergrowth and 

underutilized material that has previously been left behind after commercial 

tree harvest operations—adding to the fuel accumulation problem. 
50 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

This research is also modifying an existing commercial product made 

by Wyoming Sawmill Inc. in Sheridan, WY. Called “LamHeader,” it 

is an I-beam structural product that uses nominal 2 x 4 material that is 

then remanufactured into a more efficient structural product. 

This remanufacturing process works well with small-diameter and 

low-value curved material. The product’s performance is equal to that 

of existing commercial products.

The results also show that it is possible to improve properties of the Ibeam through selective placement of stiffer material on the flanges. 

Feasibility of Using Curved Materials for Structural Products

One of this project’s original objectives was to determine if curved 

material could be straightened to be successfully processed through 

sawmills and then used in I-beams or other engineered products.

This project’s research has confirmed that it is possible to straighten 

curved wood using the microwave press. After evaluating the 

“strength” properties of the straightened wood—as well as developing 

more accurate guidelines for controlling the microwave process—

consistently produced thermally straightened wood can now be 

useable in a conventional process.

Success Story: No- or low-value materials are glued together and fabricated 

together into large structural beams at a Wyoming sawmill.

Project Identifier: 01.FPL.C.2, Forest Products Laboratory. Lead Scientist: John F. Hunt, jfhunt@fs.fed.us, 608-231-9433.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 51

2. Exploring alternatives to prescribed fire for reducing fuels inside California’s high-risk urban-interface zones

California’s forested urban-interface is an explosive zone of high 

fuel loadings, droughty conditions, and high population densities. 

Dwellings often are interspersed in dense thickets of shrubs with 

a scattered overstory of stressed trees. Using prescribed fire 

to reduce fuel buildup at the wildland-urban interface is often 

impractical because of possible litigation, air quality concerns, 

problems with weed invasions after fire, and fire-induced loss of 

ecosystem carbon and soil nutrients. Researchers are therefore 

examining a variety of fuel treatments as alternatives to fire to 

reduce fuel buildups, enhance soil properties, and improve carbon 

storage. The study has been established at four different sites in 

California. Findings will help guide managerial decisions about 

treating fuels in a zone of extremely high risk. 

A Unique Experiment

This project’s scientists reintroduced fire into plots where 

chipping treatments had removed fuel ladders. Chipped residues, 

however, are not distributed uniformly in the forest. Rather, they 

vary in thickness (0 to 8 inches or more), according to the spatial 

arrangement of understory fuels before treatment.

Might this lead to “hot spots” during burning that could damage 

soil or residual trees? And how might this be influenced by soil 

moisture at the time of burning?

The researchers approached this situation through a unique 

experiment in which they brought large quantities of soil and 

chipped residues from the field to the lab. They then placed the soil 

into “burn boxes”—reconstructing it in layers—and applied varying 

degrees of thickness of chips to the soil surfaces. In this way, they 

were able to simulate the range of conditions found in the field.

Half the soil/chip combinations were dry (simulating late summer 

conditions) and half were moist (simulating spring conditions). 

All burn boxes were instrumented with thermocouples to sense the 

intensity and duration of heat at varying depths below the surface. 

Private dwelling typical of the wildland-urban interface. 

Surrounding shrubs pose a fire risk. Proximity to dwellings 

preclude the general use of prescribed fire.
52 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

The surfaces were then ignited (see bottom-left illustration box). 

Results indicate that as chip layer thickness increases, heat pulses 

exceeding 300 degrees C can penetrate several inches into the soil 

and last for several hours. The drier the soil, the greater the effect.

Results from this study have been accepted for publication by the 

International Journal of Wildland Fire.

Validated in the Field

The implications of this simulation experiment were then validated 

in the field. Thus, the first prescribed burn was applied in spring 

2005 at the researcher’s oldest installation (Challenge Experimental 

Forest). The burn was conducted according to prescriptions by 

Plumas National Forest employees. Duff, soil, and residual trees were 

instrumented to evaluate the physical and biological effects of the 

burn and the relationship between fuel depth and burn severity relative 

to soil and residual trees (see bottom-right illustration box). Results 

continue to be analyzed.

Project Identifier: 01.PSW.C.2, Pacific Southwest Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Robert F. Powers, bpowers@fs.fed.us, 530-226-2543.

Layout for simulating the effect of chip depth on heat pulse. Field instrumentation at the Challenge Prescribed Burn, spring 2005.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 53

Knowledge about the condition of vegetation (fuel) is critical in 

assessing fire hazards and fire effects. However, we know little about 

the amount, distribution, and arrangement of fuels. Researchers are 

therefore developing techniques for monitoring and assessing fuels, 

mapping fuel characteristics, and validating fuel information using 

remote sensing. This information will enable managers to more 

effectively assess fire hazard conditions—as well as implement the 

subsequent actions to reduce these hazards.

The ongoing development of sophisticated fire behavior and effects 

models has highlighted this need for a comprehensive system of fuel 

classification that more accurately captures the structural complexity 

and geographic diversity of fuelbeds.

Under this special research project, a national system of fuel 

characteristic classification system (FCCS) is being developed. This 

system is designed to accommodate both managers and researchers 

who operate at a variety of spatial scales and have access to a variety 

Under this project, scientists have monitored consumption on 

a variety of units to improve fuel consumption models and 

combustion limits for better fire use decisions.

3. Developing ground-based support for mapping fuel and fire hazard for land managers

of input data. The system quantifies live and dead fuel loadings for 16 

categories of fuels across 6 vertical strata, from canopy to duff. 

FCCS users can accept these default settings—or modify some, or all, 

of them—using more detailed information about vegetation structure 

and fuel biomass. When the user has completed editing the fuelbed 

data, the FCCS calculates or infers quantitative fuel characteristics 

(physical, chemical, and structural properties) and probable fire 

parameters specific to that fuelbed. 

Under this project, scientists have monitored consumption on a 

variety of units to improve fuel consumption models and combustion 

limits for better fire use decisions.

Mapping Fire Hazard Potentials Also Helps a National Air Pollution Emissions Inventory

Under this project, scientists have mapped fire potentials for the 

United States as a fire hazard evaluation and as the basis for a 

national air pollution emissions inventory.

In doing so, they initiated a landscape-scale demonstration of fire 

potentials to serve as performance metrics and decision support 

for fuel treatment priorities.

To improve model predictions of fire severity and completing 

data collection when fuels are extremely dry, their research 

has also included measuring the consumption and fuel 

conditions on 11 very severe wildland fires and two prescribed 

fires in Alaska.
54 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Fuel Characteristic Classification System 

(FCCS) Fuelbed Map of the Contiguous 

United States

Under this project scientists have developed dynamic 

fuel maps for the continental United States that can be 

updated as ecosystems change over time. An existing fuel 

characteristic classification system quantifies live and dead 

fuel loadings into means and ranges for 16 categories of 

fuels across 6 strata, from canopy to duff. GIS coverages 

of potential vegetation, current vegetation cover, land use, 

climatic variables, and historical fire regimes are overlaid 

and one or more FCCS fuelbeds are assigned to each cell on 

the landscape.

Several fire potentials from the fuelbed database can be 

calculated: fire behavior potential, crown fire potential, and 

available fuel potential. Local-scale data are used to validate 

the classifications.

The FCCS now allows land managers to visualize and 

quantify the distribution of fuels across the continental 

United States and will provide input for emissions and 

dispersion models under different management, land-use, 

and climatic-change scenarios. 

A fuel-mapping module links GIS vegetation data to a fuel 

classification system, the Fuel Characteristic Classification 

System (FCCS), so that fuel loadings can be estimated across 

the United States. Fuel maps based on remote sensing and field 

data provide valuable information for modelers and managers, 

but are only snapshots in time.

Project Identifier:

01.PNW.C.1, Pacific Northwest Research Station.

Lead Scientist:

David V. Sandberg, dsandberg@fs.fed.us, 541-750-7265.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 55

Accomplishments

Community Assistance

Only when communities are truly made fire safe, will our surrounding fuel treatments

serve to protect them from wildfire.

To accomplish this important wildland fire protection goal, community leaders and 

residents must ensure that their structures and immediate surroundings are appropriately 

modified to reduce wildland fire risk.

As illustrated in this section, to help expedite this vital process, our National Fire 

Plan Research and Development is:

v Improving our understanding of community attitudes and beliefs,

v Developing new partnership approaches with communities

to enhance their preparedness, and

v Also developing new partnership approaches with communities to decrease

the negative social and economic impacts from wildland fires.
56 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Building fire hazard reduction consensus through 

improved communication between the public and fire 

management agencies

Does providing additional information to people about fire 

management and post-fire restoration efforts make the impacts more 

acceptable? Does this change people’s preferences for alternative 

techniques? Scientists are studying the effects of such information 

on people’s perceptions and choices related to fire management 

techniques. This research project’s goal is improving two-way 

communication between the public and fire management agencies in 

reducing fire hazard. 

Project Identifier: Kent, 01.RMS.D.1,

 Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Brian Kent,

 bkent@fs.fed.us, 970-295-5955.

Helping managers create effective, locally acceptable fuel 

reduction and restoration activities

How acceptable are different fire management treatments—such as 

fuel reduction and restoration—to the public? And, how do different 

social and biophysical settings affect acceptability? To help us 

accurately answer these questions, researchers are examining the 

aesthetic and social acceptability of various forest management 

treatments. This information will help managers in creating effective 

strategies for working with the public to develop locally acceptable 

fuel reduction and restoration activities.

Project Identifier: McCaffrey, 01.NCS.D.1,

 North Central Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Sarah McCaffrey,

 smccaffrey@fs.fed.us, 847-866-9311, ext. 20.

Helping managers and wildland-urban interface residents 

collaborate in managing fire impacts

Fires often have a large impact on recreation and tourism, including 

their direct biophysical effects on the landscape and indirect effects 

due to fire operations, fuel treatments, area closures, and other 

disruptions to daily life. Researchers are therefore examining the 

attitudes, beliefs and behaviors of local residents as well as area 

visitors affected by fire events. Results from this research will help 

managers and people in wildland-urban interface communities to work 

together in better managing these impacts.

Project Identifier: Chavez, 01.PSW.D.1,

 Pacific Southwest Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Deborah Chavez,

 dchavez@fs.fed.us, 951-680-1558.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 57

Identifying educational program effectiveness for 

mitigating wildland fire hazards

The danger to homes located adjacent to wildlands can be greatly 

reduced with public education and a good mix of programs, 

including: land use zoning, fire-safe building codes, and vegetation 

management controls. Researchers are examining the wide 

range of regulatory, incentive-based, and educational programs 

currently used to reduce fuel loading in fire-prone communities and 

identifying these programs’ effectiveness in mitigating fire hazards.

Project Identifier: Haines, 01.SRS.D.2, 

 Southern Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Terry Haines,

 thaines01@fs.fed.us, 985-867-9164.

Developing alternative residential landscape designs to 

meet owners’ landscape needs and increase fire safety

The landscapes that people create and manage around their homes 

influence the susceptibility of their residences to wildfire. Little 

research on “firewise” landscapes has taken into consideration 

what vegetation characteristics homeowners consider most 

important—for instance, beauty, shade, privacy, and wildlife habitat. 

Researchers are developing a set of alternative landscape designs 

that will enable homeowners to meet their personal landscape 

needs—and simultaneously increase fire safety. 

Project Identifier: McPherson, 01.PSW.D.2,

 Pacific Southwest Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Greg McPherson,

 egmcpherson@ucdavis.edu, 530-752-5897.

What characteristic enabled this house to survive the flames? 

Photo: Tom Iraci, U.S. Forest Service.

Landscapes that people create and manage around their homes influence the susceptibility of 

their residences to wildfire. Photo: Tom Iraci, U.S. Forest Service.
58 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Preventing residential fire disasters at the wildland-urban interface

News reports on fires often dramatically depict one house virtually 

untouched by fire standing among its completely ruined neighbors. 

What characteristics enable this one house to survive the flames? 

Under this important project, researchers are looking into what 

specific home design factors contribute to home ignitions. This 

information is critical to the development of “Firewise” for homes 

and communities. This project is nationally applicable, with research 

efforts and investigations conducted principally in the western United 

States, including Alaska and Alberta and Northwest Territories, 

Canada. Among other research products, a three-method approach has 

been applied to the problem of homes igniting during wildfires.

Project Identifier: 01.RMS.D.2, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Jack D. Cohen; jcohen@fs.fed.us; 406-329-4821.

Mapping the wildland-urban interface across the United States and projecting its growth to 2030

The wildland-urban interface areas are where firefighting is most 

challenging. Communities, homes, and property are at most risk 

here. And, the likelihood of danger to human life is greatest in these 

interface areas. However, we know very little about the wildlandurban interface location, extent, and change over time. Scientists are 

therefore developing valid methods for estimating housing density 

at a fine scale over a long time period (1940-2030) across the 

United States. Through this comprehensive effort, it will be possible to 

clearly delineate wildland-urban interface areas and track their growth 

and change over time. This information will allow policy makers and 

fire professionals to better coordinate and prioritize hazard mitigation 

projects, and will also assist states and communities in their efforts to 

reduce wildland fire vulnerability of homes and communities.

Project Identifier: Stewart, 02.NCS.D.1, North Central Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Susan I. Stewart, sistewart@fs.fed.us, 847-866-9311, ext. 13.

Increasing the effectiveness of fire management programs in communities at risk from wildfire

The vulnerability of wildland-urban interface communities to fire 

is a function of a variety of factors, including the community’s 

organizational culture and its ability to coordinate with nearby 

communities. Under this project, researchers will gather information 

from communities that have been successful in disaster preparedness. 

In doing so, they will identify what factors are critical to success and 

develop models of community cooperation and partnerships. This 

information will help to increase the effectiveness of fire management 

programs in communities at risk from wildfire.

Project Identifier: Jakes, 01.NCS.D.2, North Central Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Pamela J. Jakes, pjakes@fs.fed.us, 651-649-5163.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 59

Assisting land managers in 

designing and implementing 

socially acceptable fire and 

fuel management policies and 

programs

Although fire is increasingly recommended 

as a vegetation management tool on both 

public and private lands, controversy often 

inhibits its use. A lack of communication 

and understanding between land 

managers and the public contributes 

to these difficulties. Researchers are 

therefore gathering information on public 

knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes related 

to fire use, fuel management, and the role 

of fire in Southwestern (New Mexico 

and Arizona) ecosystems. They are 

also examining the factors contributing 

to successful public involvement with 

fire and fuel management planning approaches. Results of this research will assist land managers in designing and 

implementing successful, socially acceptable, fire and fuels management policies and programs.

Sign says it all. Photo: Tom Iraci, U.S. Forest Service.

Project Identifier: Raish, 02.RMS.D.1, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Carol Raish, craish@fs.fed.us, 505-724-3666.
60 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Highlight Projects

Community Assistance Accomplishments

1. Kenneth W. Outcalt, Southern Research Station:

Developing a convenient Internet-based encyclopedia of Southern fire science 

and management knowledge.............................................................................................................................................61

2. Jeffrey P. Prestemon, Southern Research Station:

Economic impact research to help future federal assistance structuring in the aftermath of catastrophic fire ........... 63
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 61

1. Developing a convenient internet-based encyclopedia of 

southern fire science and management knowledge

Managers use prescribed fire for various objectives. The widespread 

use of prescribed fire has increased the complexity for management 

in the south. Much research information is available to help land 

managers make decisions about how and when to use fire. But 

this information is scattered in written reports that range from 

user bulletins to refereed journal articles. Managers can become 

overwhelmed when searching these vast written resources.

The objective of this project is to gather the fragmented information 

contained in a mass of publications into a synthesized, centrally 

located database that is easily accessible and searchable by all users. 

A comprehensive outline was developed for all aspects of southern 

fire science. This was used as the basis for building an Internet-based 

hypertext encyclopedia. Authors were recruited to develop content—

synthesized information—presented in a hierarchical form from 

general explanation to detailed science, with cross links to related 

topics throughout the system.

Content was peer reviewed over the Internet by appropriate scientists 

from throughout the southern fire science cadre. Using review 

comments, authors then revised the synthesis articles and edited them 

for style. Finalized articles were then published on the Web site. Using 

content management system software, a user-friendly knowledgebased encyclopedia of southern fire science was thus created that 

provides ready access to the correct information.

Fully Searchable Knowledge Base

The Encyclopedia of Southern Fire Science is available free on the 

Web at http://www.fire.forestencyclopedia.net. It is a fully searchable 

knowledge base containing seven major sections: fuels, weather, and 

fire behavior; fire effects on air, water, soil, vegetation, and fauna; 

fire ecology; fire and people; prescribed fire; smoke management; 

and wildland fire. More than 1000 pages of content in the Fire 

Encyclopedia synthesize southern fire science and provide an 

extensive reference list. Links to other Web sites contain additional 

information about specific topics in southern fire science.

Encyclopedia of Southern Fire Science Web page.
62 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

To assist in making informed decisions by providing a better 

understanding of the social, economic, and ecosystem implications 

of all aspects of southern fire, the synthesized information contained 

An Internet-based fire science encyclopedia system – from fire and people to smoke management

The Encyclopedia of Southern Fire Science is organizing and synthesizing the southern United States’ large body of fire science 

and translating this information into an Internet-based encyclopedia system.

RWU-4104 is cooperating with a variety of research institutions and land management agencies across the South to compile 

literature and write original syntheses of a broad range of topics, including:

v Fire and people;

v Fuels and fire behavior;

v Fire effects;

v Ecology of fire-influenced communities in the South;

v Uses and types of prescribed fire;

v Fire weather and smoke management; and

v Wildfire occurrence, impacts, and mitigation.

These syntheses will be available to the public in a fully-linked and searchable encyclopedia hypertext system via the Internet, 

making access to this information universal, convenient, and free.

in the Encyclopedia of Southern Fire Science is now readily available 

to community leaders, land managers, policy makers, and private 

landowners. 

Project Identifier: 02.SRS.D.1, Southern Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Kenneth W. Outcalt, koutcalt@fs.fed.us, 706-559-4309.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 63

2. Economic impact research to help future Federal assistance 

structuring in the aftermath of catastrophic fire

Catastrophic wildfires incur a large economic toll on communities, including property losses, decreased tourism, and even 

changes in the long-term structure of the local economy. Building on experiences gained in evaluating the economic impacts 

of fires in Florida, researchers are evaluating the economic impacts of fires across the western United States. Insights gained 

from this research will help provide guidance for structuring Federal assistance in the aftermath of catastrophic fires.

Background

In 2005, the Forest Service was asked to identify alternative 

approaches that could be considered for estimating annual suppression 

costs and the funding of wildfire suppression. The Forest Service 

and Department of the Interior agencies agreed to work together to 

improve their methods for estimating annual wildfire suppression 

costs. It was determined that developing improved methods would 

more effectively account for annual changes in costs—as well as 

the uncertainties associated with wildfires. Thus, funding needs for 

wildfire suppression could be predicted with greater accuracy.

However, it was eventually determined that the current approach—

based on a 10-year moving average—did not provide sufficient 

information to determine these improved methods.

Accomplishments

A subsequent two-year collaboration joined the Southern Research 

Station, Rocky Mountain Research Station, and Scripps Institution 

of Oceanography. Researchers from these three institutions worked 

together to provide the Forest Service with more accurate indicators 

of upcoming fire season severity—for both “area burned” and 

“emergency suppression” expenditures.

The agency asked these collaborating scientists to develop statistical 

models that would:

1. Possibly replace the current budget appropriation request 

tool that the agency currently uses (the 10-year moving 

average cost—[see below]), and

2. Indicate the severity of the upcoming fire season through 

simulation modeling.

These approaches have been useful for reducing budget surprises. 

They have also served as indicators of the size and likelihood of the 

need for supplemental budget appropriations.

Investigating Statistical Alternatives to the 10-year 

Moving Average

Alternatives were evaluated for three different time “horizons”:

v The Fall Current Year Model—which makes a forecast at 

the beginning of the fiscal year for the current fiscal year;

v The Late Statistical Budget Prediction Model—made two 

years out; and

v The Early Statistical Budget Prediction Model—made 

three years out.
64 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Researchers discovered that these alternatives:

v Improve the statistical accuracy of forecasts of emergency 

suppression costs, and

v Reduce the error rate by nearly 50 percent when compared 

to the 10-year moving average.

Of the alternatives investigated, the best statistical forecast of fiscal 

year 2005 suppression costs made in October 2004 was 

These approaches have been useful for reducing budget surprises. They have also served as indicators 

of the size and likelihood of the need for supplemental budget appropriations.

$395 million—with the 95 percent confidence interval ranging from 

$87 million to $737 million.

The best “two-year out” model forecast (for fiscal year 2006 using 

October 2004 data) was $875 million—with the 95 percent confidence 

interval ranging from $517 million to $1,993 million.

And, the best “three-year out” model (for fiscal year 2007 using 

October 2004 data) was $891 million—with the 95 percent confidence 

interval ranging from $476 million to $2,093 million.

Project Identifier: 01.SRS.D.1, Southern Research Station.

Lead Scientist: Jeffrey P. Prestemon, jprestemon@fs.fed.us, 919-549-4033.
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 65

IV Appendices

Table 2—National Fire Plan Research and Development Program Projects and Team Lead Scientists

Project ID number Project title Team lead scientists E-mail address

A. Firefighting

01.NCS.A.1	 National and Regional Fire-Weather Dynamics: Improved Methods for High Resolution	 Warren E. Heilman	 wheilman@fs.fed.us

Forecasting of Fire-Weather Indices and Smoke Transport

01.NCS.A.1	 National and Regional Fire-Weather Dynamics: Improved Methods for High Resolution	 Warren E. Heilman	 wheilman@fs.fed.us

Forecasting of Fire-Weather Indices and Smoke Transport

01.NCS.A.2	 Assessing Vulnerability of Populations to Wildfire in the North Central Region	 Robert G. Haight	 rhaight@fs.fed.us

01.NCS.A.3	 FIA Pilot Test of a Fuel Condition Monitoring System	 Dennis May	 dmay@fs.fed.us

01.PNW.A.1	 A Modeling Framework for Real-time Predictions of Cumulative Smoke Impacts (“BlueSky”)	 Brian Potter	 bpotter@fs.fed.us

01.PNW.A.2	 Estimating Haze from Prescribed and Wildland Fires	 Don McKenzie	 donaldmckenzie@fs.fed.us

01.PNW.A.3	 Seasonal Prediction of National Fire Risks and Impacts	 Ronald P. Neilson	 rneilson@fs.fed.us

01.PNW.A.4	 Fuel Moisture Mapping and Combustion Limits	 David V. Sandberg	 dsandberg@fs.fed.us

01.PSW.A.1	 Risks to Fish and Wildlife from Wildfire and Landscape Treatments	 Danny C. Lee	 dclee@fs.fed.us

01.PSW.A.2*	 An Initial Attack Model for Fire Management Planning	 Marc Wiitala	 mrwiitala@fs.fed.us

01.PSW.A.3	 Fire Behavior in Live Fuels	 David R. Weise	 dweise@fs.fed.us.

01.PSW.A.4	 Real-time Remote Sensing of Fire Properties	 Philip J. Riggan	 priggan@fs.fed.us

01.PSW.A.5	 Weather Models for Area Coordination Centers	 Francis Fujioka	 ffujioka@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.A.1	 Improving Decisions for Fuel Treatment Options	 J. Greg Jones	 jgjones@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.A.2	 Real-time Fire Monitoring Nationwide	 Wei Min Hao	 whao@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.A.3	 New Technology for Monitoring Smoke Characteristics	 Wei Min Hao	 whao@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.A.4	 Remote Sensing, GIS and Landscape Assessment Tools for Fire Management	 Robert E. Keane	 rkeane@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.A.5	 Fire Management Strategies for Wilderness and Other Protected Areas	 Carol Miller	 cmiller04@fs.fed.us

01.SRS.A.1	 Prediction of Fire Weather and Smoke Impacts in the Southeast	 Gary L. Achtemeier	 gachtemeier@fs.fed.us

01.SRS.A.2	 Trade-offs of Alternative Vegetation Management Strategies	 Jeffrey P. Prestemon	 jprestemon@fs.fed.us

01.SRS.A.3	 Establishing a Wildland-Urban Interface Research and Technology Transfer Unit for the South	 Edward Macie	 emacie@fs.fed.us

01.SRS.A.4	 Long-range Forecasting of Fire Season Severity	 Scott Goodrick	 sgoodrick@fs.fed.us

01.SRS.A.5	 Southern Regional Models for Predicting Smoke Movement	 Gary L. Achtemeier	 gachtemeier@fs.fed.us

02.NES.A.1	 Regional Climate and Fire Danger Modeling for the New Jersey the Pine Barrens	 John Hom	 jhom@fs.fed.us

02.PSW.A.1	 Improving Monitoring and Modeling of Smoke Contributions to Regional Haze	 Andrzej Bytnerowicz	 abytnerowicz@fs.fed.us

02.RMS.A.1	 Enhanced Prediction of Fire Weather and Smoke Impacts in the Rocky Mountains Karl Zeller	 kzeller@fs.fed.us

and the Southwest

02.RMS.A.2	 A Nationwide System to Generate a Daily Emissions Inventory of Pollutants from Fires	 Wei Min Hao	 whao@fs.fed.us
66 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

B. Rehabilitation and Restoration 

01.PNW.B.1	 Predicting Spread of Invasive Species After Fuel Reduction Treatments and Postfire Disturbance	 Edward J. DePuit	 ejdepuit@fs.fed.us

01.PSW.B.1	 Effectiveness of Postfire Emergency Rehabilitation Treatments in the West	 Jan L. Beyers	 jbeyers@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.B.1	 Hydrologic and Geomorphic Consequences of Wildfire and Fuels Management Options in 	 Daniel G. Neary	 dneary@fs.fed.us

Southwest Forest and Woodland Ecosystems

01.RMS.B.2	 Native Plant Materials for Restoration of Sagebrush Steppe and Pinyon-Juniper Communities	 E. Durant MacArthur	 dmcarthur@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.B.3 *	 Dynamics of Weed Invasions and Fire in the Northern Rockies	 George Markin	 gmarkin@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.B.4	 Effects of Wildfire and Fire Management Options on Invasive and Exotic Species and Pathogens	 Karen Clancy	 kclancy@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.B.5	 Factors Affecting Great Basin Watersheds’ Susceptibility to Invasive Plants	 Jeanne C. Chambers	 jchambers@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.B.6*	 Patterns of White Pine Regeneration after Fire	 Anna Schoettle	 aschoettle@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.B.7	 The Role of Grassland Fire in Managing Exotic and Woody Plants	 Deborah M. Finch	 dfinch@fs.fed.us

02.PNW.B.1*	 Response of Native and Invasive Exotic Plants to Fire and Fuel Reduction in the Catherine Parks	 cparks01@fs.fed.us

Interior Pacific Northwest

02.RMS.B.1	 Characterizing Risks of Wildfire and Fuels Management in Aquatic Systems	 Bruce Rieman	 brieman@fs.fed.us

02.SRS.B.1	 Modeling the Effects of Wildfire on Sediment and Nutrient Loads in the Southeastern U.S.	 Jim Vose	 jvose@fs.fed.us

C. Hazardous Fuel Reduction 

01.FPL.C.1	 Hazardous Fuel Reduction through Harvesting Underutilized Trees and Forest Undergrowth 	 John F. Hunt	 jfhunt@fs.fed.us

and Producing Three-Dimensional Structural Products

01.FPL.C.2	 Utilization of Small Diameter Crooked Timber for Use in Laminated Structural Boards Through 	 John F. Hunt	 jfhunt@fs.fed.us

Development of New Sawing, Laminating, and Drying Processes

01.NCS.C.1	 Optimizing Fuel Reductions in Time and Space	 Brian Palik	 bpalik@fs.fed.us

01.NCS.C.2	 Managing Risk of Fire on Communities in the Wildland-Urban Interface	 Eric Gustafson	 egustafson@fs.fed.us

01.NES.C.1	 Fuels and Fire Behavior in the Central Hardwoods	 Matthew Dickinson	 mbdickinson@fs.fed.us

01.PNW.C.1	 Ground-based Support for Mapping Fuel and Fire Hazard	 David V. Sandberg	 dsandberg@fs.fed.us

01.PNW.C.2	 Fuel Reduction and Forest Restoration Strategies that Sustain Key Habitats and Species in 	 John F. Lehmkuhl	 jlemkuhl@fs.fed.us

the Interior Northwest

01.PSW.C.1	 Effects of Fuel Reductions on Stream Ecosystems	 Carolyn T. Hunsaker	 chunsaker@fs.fed.us

01.PSW.C.2	 Alternatives to Fire for Fuel Reduction in California Shrublands within Coniferous Forest	 Robert F. Powers	 rpowers@c-zone.net

01.PSW.C.3*	 The Effect of Prescribed Fire on Hydrologic and Soil Processes that Affect Erosion in Ken Hubbert	 khubbert@fs.fed.us

Semi-Arid Systems

01.PSW.C.4	 Effects of Wildfire and Fuel Treatments on California Spotted Owl	 John J. Keane	 jkeane@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.C.1	 Impacts of Exotic Weeds on Fuel Loading and Fire Regimes	 Nancy L. Shaw	 nshaw@.fs.fed.us

01.RMS.C.2	 Impact of Fuel Management Treatments on Fire Behavior and Forest Vegetation	 Dennis E. Ferguson	 deferguson@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.C.3	 Impact of Fuel Management Treatments on Forest Soil Erosion and Production	 William J. Elliot	 welliot@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.C.4	 Management Alternatives for Fire Dependent Ecosystems in Colorado and the Black Hills	 Linda A. Joyce	 ljoyce@fs.fed.us

Table 2—National Fire Plan Research and Development Program Projects and Team Lead Scientists (continued)

Project ID number Project title Team lead scientists E-mail address
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 67

01.RMS.C.5	 Improved Guidelines for Fuel Management in Southwestern Ponderosa Pine and Pinyon Juniper 	 Carlton B. Edminster	 cedminster@fs.fed.us

Forests in Wildland-Urban Interface Areas

01.RMS.C.6	 Restoration Techniques in Lodgepole Pine Forests	 Ward McCaughey	 wmccaughey@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.C.7*	 Use of Remote Sensing to Examine Disturbance Effects	 John E. Lundquist	 jlundquist@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.C.8	 Riparian Ecosystem Dynamics in Relation to Fire in the Rocky Mountains	 Deborah M. Finch	 dfinch@fs.fed.us

01.SRS.C.1	 Wildfire Risk in the Eastern United States	 Steve McNulty	 steve_mcnulty@ncsu.edu

01.SRS.C.2	 Quantifying the Ecological and Economic Tradeoffs of Fire and Fire Surrogate Options for 	 Thomas A. Waldrop	 twaldrop@fs.fed.us

Piedmont and Southern Appalachian Mountains

01.SRS.C.3	 Quantifying the Tradeoffs of Fire and Fuels Management Options - Longleaf and Slash Kenneth W. Outcalt	 koutcalt@fs.fed.us

Pine Ecosystems of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain Provinces

01.SRS.C.4	 A System for Mechanized Fuel Reduction at the Wildland-Urban Interface	 John Stanturf	 jstanturf@fs.fed.us

01.SRS.C.5	 Fire and Herbicide Combinations to Reduce Fire Intensity	 Joseph O’Brien	 jjobrien@fs.fed.us

02.FPL.C.1	 Developing Tools to Assess the Economic Feasibility of Processing Wood Removed in Ken Skog	 kskog@fs.fed.us

Hazardous Fuels Reduction

02.PNW.C.1	 Processing Options for Hazardous Fuel Reduction	 Jamie Barbour	 jbarbour01@fs.fed.us

02.PSW.C.1	 Assessing Alternative Fire and Fuels Management Approaches on Fish and Wildlife: Peter Stine	 pstine@fs.fed.us

Plan for the Quincy Library Group Study Area

02.RMS.C.1	 Environmental and Economic Impacts of Biomass Reduction	 William J. Elliot	 welliot@fs.fed.us

02.RMS.C.2	 Effects of Wildland Fire and Fuel Treatments on Terrestrial Vertebrates in William Block	 wblock@fs.fed.us

Intermountain Forests

D. Community Assistance 

01.NCS.D.1	 Modeling People’s Responses to Landscape Treatments	 Sarah McCaffrey	 smaccaffrey@fs.fed.us

01.NCS.D.2	 Community Partnerships	 Pamela J. Jakes	 pjakes@fs.fed.us

01.PSW.D.1	 Recreation and Fire in the Wildland-Urban Interface	 Deborah Chavez	 dchavez@fs.fed.us

01.PSW.D.2	 Firewise Residential Landscapes	 Greg McPherson	 egmcpherson@ucdavis.edu

01.RMS.D.1	 Building Consensus on Fire Management	 Brian Kent	 bkent@fs.fed.us

01.RMS.D.2	 Preventing Residential Fire Disasters at the Wildland-urban Interface	 Jack D. Cohen	 jcohen@fs.fed.us

01.SRS.D.1	 Impact of Wildfires on Local Economies	 Jeffrey P. Prestemon	 jprestemon@fs.fed.us

01.SRS.D.2	 Fire Protection in Residential Expansion Areas	 Terry Haines	 thaines01@fs.fed.us

02.NCS.D.1	 Mapping the Wildland Urban Interface and Projecting its Growth to 2030	 Susan Stewart I.	 sistewart@fs.fed.us

02.RMS.D.1	 Community Knowledge, Beliefs, Attitudes and Practices Concerning Fire and Fuels Carol Raish	 craish@fs.fed.us

Management in Southwestern Ecosystems

02.SRS.D.1	 An Internet-Based Encyclopedia of Southern Fire Science and Management Knowledge	 Kenneth W. Outcalt	 koutcalt@fs.fed.us

* Projects unfunded in fiscal year 2004

Table 2—National Fire Plan Research and Development Program Projects and Team Lead Scientists (continued)

Project ID number Project title Team lead scientists E-mail address
68 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Table 3A— 2004 National Fire Plan Research and Development Program Summary Accomplishments

Rehabilitation Hazardous Community

Accomplishment Firefighting and restoration fuel reduction assistance

Studies initiated	 64 18 72 20

$$ Value of agreements (1000s)	 $2,896.00	 $520.50	 $2,226.50	 $1,002.00

Permanent scientists/professionals hired	 4.08 0.3 4.5 75

Term scientists/professionals hired	 5 2 8.5 0

Permanent technicians hired	 1 0	 3 0

Refereed publications	 50	 23 51 16

Non-refereed publications	 69 68 90	 35

Presentations at scientific conferences	 219 129 176 91

User bulletins, leaflets produced	 51 3 29 34

Decision-support tools, models developed	 77 1 22 6

Demonstrations, tours hosted	 87 31 92 10

Regions, National Forests, Districts	 88 36 142 48

States, State Foresters	 40	 12 31 18

Tribal Governments	 6 9 6 5

County/local governments	 9 11 25 25

Other	 55 24 59 51

Short courses, workshops, training offered	 34 16 68 19

Communities assisted	 1 6 16 24

Fire Management units assisted	 27 5 21 29
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 69

Table 3B— 2005 National Fire Plan Research and Development Program Summary Accomplishments

Rehabilitation Hazardous Community

Accomplishment Firefighting and restoration fuel reduction assistance

Studies initiated	 67 13 50	 25

$$ Value of agreements (1000s)	 $2,252.00	 $567.80	 $1,894.60	 $961.00

Permanent scientists/professionals hired	 2.2 0	 4 0

Term scientists/professionals hired	 2.7 1 8.5 0

Permanent technicians hired	 1 0	 18 0

Refereed publications	 53 24 69 23

Non-refereed publications	 61 84 77 24

Presentations at scientific conferences	 216 122 184 51

User bulletins, leaflets produced	 58 4 37 30

Decision-support tools, models developed	 84 1 13 7

Demonstrations, tours hosted	 95 32 68 5

Regions, National Forests, Districts	 93 26 121 33

States, State Foresters	 42 8 21 21

Tribal Governments	 2 2 3 1

County/local governments	 7 6 31 19

Other	 61 12 52 28

Short courses, workshops, training offered	 48 22 91 15

Communities assisted	 1 4 20	 26

Fire Management units assisted	 42 7 23 37
70 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Table 4—2004 and 2005 Research Partners and Cooperators for Forest Service National Fire Plan Research

Rehabilitation Hazardous Community

Partner/Cooperator Firefighting and restoration fuel reduction assistance

Adaptive Management Services	 X

Air Sciences Inc	 X	 X	

AKB Reforestation	 X	

Allied En vironmental and Forestry Consultants	 	 X	

Anadarko Industries	 X	

Association of Official Seed Certifying Agencies	 	 X	

ATMET Inc	 X	

Auburn University	 X	 X	

Axiom IT Solutions	 X	

Bitterroot Ecosystem Management Project	 X	

Black Hills State University	 X	

Boise State University	 X	 X	

Brigham Young University	 X	

Bureau of Land Management	 X

California State University	 X	

Carmelia Austin	

Carol Jones	

Catamount Institute	 X	

Charlie Jackson	 X	

Clemson University	 X	

Colorado State University	 X	 X	

Columbia University	

Cortner & Associatges	 X

Darin Law	

Decision Science Research Institute Inc	 X

Desert Research Institute	 X	

Douglas Ranger District	

Farber Specialty Vehicles	 X	

Geertson Seed	 X	

George Mason University	 X	
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 71

Table 4—2004 and 2005 Research Partners and Cooperators for Forest Service National Fire Plan Research (continued)

Rehabilitation Hazardous Community

Partner/Cooperator Firefighting and restoration fuel reduction assistance

Gordon Johnson	

Hall Environmental Analysis Laboratory	

Helena National Forest	 X	

Hira Walker	

Hoefler Consulting	 X	 X	

Hubbert and Associates	

Integrated Resource Solutions	 X

ITT Technical Institute	 X	

Jemez Ranger District	 X	

Kathy Brodhead	

Kiowa National Grassland	

Lang, Railsback and Associates	

Lans Thornton	

Larry Allen	

Los Alamos National Laboratory	 X	 X	

Louisana State University	 X	 X

Manual Gonzales	 X	

METI	 X	

Michigan State University	 X	 X	 X

Missoula Tech. & Dev. Center	 X	

Montana Conservation Corps	 X	

Montana State University	 X	 X	

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration	 X	

NC - 4401 Eastern Area Modeling Consortium	 X	

New Mexico State University	 X	 X	

NOAA Air Resources Laboratory	 X	

North Carolina State University	 X	 X	

Northern Arizona University	 X	 X	

Ohio University	 X	

Ohlson Inc	 X	
72 National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report

Table 4—2004 and 2005 Research Partners and Cooperators for Forest Service National Fire Plan Research (continued)

Rehabilitation Hazardous Community

Partner/Cooperator Firefighting and restoration fuel reduction assistance

Oregon State University	 X	 X	 X

Pacific Northwest Research Station	 X	

Phil Dawson	 X	

Plumas National Forest	 X	

Qualcomm Inc	 X	

Robert Lamar - Pilot	 X	

Robinson Research	 X

Rocky Mountain Tree-Ring Research	 X	

Saint Louis University	 X	

Scripps Institution of Oceanography	 X	

Seedyco Inc	 X	

SI International	 X	 X	

Sonoma Technology	

Space Instruments Inc.	 X	

Sr. Dmitry Sukhov	 X	

State of Utah	 X

State University of New York	 X	

Steven Bodio	 X	

Systems for Environmental Management	 X	

Texas A & M University	 X	 X

The Nature Conservancy	 X	

Titan Averstar	 X	

Total Forestry	 X	

University of Arizona	 X	 X	

University of California	 X	 X	

University of California	

University of Colorado	 X	 X

University of Florida	 X	

University of Georgia	 X	

University of Hawaii	 X	
National Fire Plan Research and Development 2004-2005 Accomplishment Report 73

University of Hawaii	 X	

University of Houston	 X	

University of Idaho	 X	 X	 X	

University of Maryland	 X	

University of Massachusetts	 X

University of Minnesota	 X

University of Missouri	 X	 X	

University of Montana	 X	 X	

University of Nevada	 X	

University of Nevada Reno	 X

University of New Mexico	 X	

University of North Carolina	 X	

University of Oklahoma	 X	

University of Sao Paulo, Brazil	 X	

University of Tennessee	 X	

University of Utah	 X	

University of Washington	 X	 X	

University of Wisconsin	 X	 X	 X

University of Wyoming	 X	 X	

US Army Research Laboratory	 X	

USDA FS Forest Inventory Science	 X	

US Geological Survey	 X	 X

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University	 X	 X

Washington State University	 X	 X	 X

Weather Ventures Ltd.	 X	

West Virginia University	 X

Western New Mexico University	 X	

Western Washington University	 X

Table 4—2004 and 2005 Research Partners and Cooperators for Forest Service National Fire Plan Research (continued)

Rehabilitation Hazardous Community

Partner/Cooperator Firefighting and restoration fuel reduction assistance

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ROCKY MOUNTAIN

Research Station

	 The Rocky Mountain Research Station develops scientific information

and technology to improve management, protection, and use of the

forests and rangelands. Research is designed to meet the needs of

National Forest managers, Federal and State agencies, public and

private organizations, academic institutions, industry, and individuals.

	 Studies accelerate solutions to problems involving ecosystems,range,

forests, water, recreation, fire, resource inventory, land reclamation,

community sustainability, forest engineering technology, multiple use

economics, wildlife and fish habitat, and forest insects and diseases.

Studies are conducted cooperatively, and applications may be found

worldwide.

Research Locations

Flagstaff, Arizona	 Reno, Nevada

Fort Collins, Colorado*	 Albuquerque, New Mexico

Boise, Idaho	 Rapid City, South Dakota

Moscow, Idaho	 Logan, Utah

Bozeman, Montana	 Ogden, Utah

Missoula, Montana	 Provo, Utah

*Station Headquarters, Natural Resources Research Center,

2150 Centre Avenue, Building A, Fort Collins, CO 80526