National Fish, Wildlife and Plants 

Climate Adaptation Strategy

Recommended citation

National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate 

Adaptation Partnership.

2012.

National Fish, Wildlife and Plants 

Climate Adaptation Strategy.

Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, 

Council on Environmental Quality, Great Lakes 

Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission, National 

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 

and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Washington, DC.

Cover credits: Children in woods, Steve 

Hillebrand. Horse-eye jacks, National Oceanic 

and Atmospheric Administration. Painted Hills, 

Jane Pellicciotto. Pelican, George Andrejko/

Arizona Game and Fish Department.

Design and layout: Jane Pellicciotto/ 

Allegro Design

This publication is printed on FSC-certified 

paper in the United States.

ISBN: 978-1-938956-00-3

DOI: 10.3996/082012-FWSReport-1

wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov

about this report

This report was produced by an intergovernmental working group of federal, state, 

and tribal agency representatives at the 

request of the U.S. Government. Therefore, 

the report is in the public domain. Some 

materials used in the report are copyrighted 

and permission was granted to the U.S. 

Government for their publication in this 

report. For subsequent uses that include 

such copyrighted materials, permission 

for reproduction must be sought from the 

copyright holder. In all cases, credit must be 

given for copyrighted materials.

For more information, contact:

Mark Shaffer

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

mark_shaffer@fws.gov

703-358-2603

Roger Griffis

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

roger.b.griffis@noaa.gov

301-427-8134

ARPITA CHOUDHURY

Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies

achoudhury@fishwildlife.org

202-624-5853

DISCLAIMER

This Strategy is not a final agency action 

subject to judicial review, nor is it considered a 

rule. Nothing in this report is meant to affect 

the substantive or legal rights of third parties 

or bind government agencies.

Photo credits

cover: Children in woods, Steve Hillebrand. 

Horse-eye jacks, National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration. Painted Hills, Jane Pellicciotto. 

Pelican, George Andrejko/Arizona Game and 

Fish Department

acknowledgement

This Strategy was produced by an 

intergovernmental working group of federal, 

state and tribal agency professionals whose 

expertise, knowledge and dedication brought 

the report to completion (see Appendix E). The 

Strategy would not have been possible without 

the research, monitoring and assessment 

activities of the nation’s scientific community 

on natural resource conservation in a changing 

climate. The Strategy also benefited greatly 

from input from a variety of non-governmental 

organizations and the public.
National Fish, Wildlife and Plants

Climate Adaptation Strategy

 authors

National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate 

Adaptation Partnership
ii | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Inside

Preface 1

Executive Summary 2

 CH.1 About the 7

Strategy

1.1 A Broad National Effort 7

1.2 Origins and Development 8

1.3 The Case for Action 9

1.3.1 The Climate is Changing 9

1.3.2 Impacts to Fish, Wildlife, 11

and Plants

1.3.3 Ecosystem Services 12

1.3.4 Adaptation to Climate Change 14

1.4 Purpose, Vision, and 17

Guiding Principles

1.5 Risk and Uncertainty 18

 CH.2 Impacts of 19

Climate Change &

Ocean Acidification

2.1 GHG-induced Changes 19

to the Climate and Ocean

2.2 Existing Stressors on Fish, 21 

Wildlife, and Plants

2.3 Climate Change Impacts 25 

on Fish, Wildlife, and Plants

2.3.1 Forest Ecosystems 31

2.3.2 Shrubland Ecosystems 33

2.3.3 Grassland Ecosystems 33

2.3.4 Desert Ecosystems 34

2.3.5 Arctic Tundra Ecosystems 36

2.3.6 Inland Water Ecosystems 39

2.3.7 Coastal Ecosystems 42

2.3.8 Marine Ecosystems 47

2.4 Impacts on Ecosystem 51

Services

The purpose of the National Fish, Wildlife and 

Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy is to inspire

and enable natural resource administrators, 

elected officials, and other decision makers 

to take action to adapt to a changing climate.

Adaptation actions are vital to sustaining the 

nation’s ecosystems and natural resources—

as well as the human uses and values that

the natural world provides.

gary wise gary wise

noaa

Paul Sundberg
Inside the Strategy | iii

Resources 93

Literature Cited 93

Appendix A: 103

Supporting Materials

Ecosystem-Specific Background Papers 103

Related Resources, Reports, and 103

Materials

Appendix B: Glossary 105

Appendix C: Acronyms 108

Appendix D: Scientific Names 109

Appendix E: Team Members 110

 CH.3 Climate 53

Adaptation Goals, 

Strategies & Actions

GOAL 1: Conserve habitat to support 55

healthy fish, wildlife, and plant 

populations and ecosystem functions 

in a changing climate.

GOAL 2: Manage species and habitats 60

to protect ecosystem functions and

provide sustainable cultural, subsistence, 

recreational, and commercial use in

a changing climate.

GOAL 3: Enhance capacity for effective 63 

management in a changing climate.

GOAL 4: Support adaptive 67

management in a changing climate 

through integrated observation and 

monitoring and use of decision 

support tools.

GOAL 5: Increase knowledge and 71

information on impacts and responses

of fish, wildlife, and plants to a changing 

climate.

GOAL 6: Increase awareness and 74

motivate action to safeguard fish, 

wildlife, and plants in a changing climate.

GOAL 7: Reduce non-climate stressors 76

to help fish, wildlife, plants, and

ecosystems adapt to a changing climate.

 CH.4 Opportunities 79

for Multiple Sectors

4.1 Agriculture 81

4.2 Energy 83

4.3 Housing and Urbanization 84

4.4 Transportation and 86 

Infrastructure

4.5 Water Resources 86

 CH.5 Integration & 88 

Implementation

5.1 Strategy Integration 88

5.2 Strategy Implementation 90

usfwsUSFWS/Joshua Winchell usfws

night sky: Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation
6 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Our climate is changing, and these changes

are already impacting the nation’s valuable 

natural resources and the people, communities, 

and economies that depend on them.

Preface
Preface | 1

that can be taken, or at least initiated, 

over the next !ve to ten years in the 

context of the changes to our climate that 

are already occurring, and those that are 

projected by the end of the century. It is 

designed to be a key part of the nation’s 

larger response to a changing climate, 

and to guide responsible actions by 

natural resource managers, conservation 

partners, and other decision makers at 

all levels. "e Strategy was produced by 

federal, state, and tribal representatives 

and has been coordinated with a variety 

of other climate change adaptation e#orts 

at national, state, and tribal levels.

The overarching goal of the 

Strategy is a simple one:

to inspire, enable, and increase 

meaningful action that helps 

safeguard the nation’s natural 

resources in a changing climate.

"e overarching goal of the Strategy

is a simple one: to inspire, enable, and 

increase meaningful action that helps 

safeguard the nation’s natural resources 

in a changing climate. Admittedly, the 

task ahead is a daunting one, especially if 

the world fails to make serious e#orts to 

reduce emissions of GHGs. But we can 

make a di#erence. To do that, we must 

begin now to prepare for a future unlike 

the recent past.

The observed changes in climate have been attributed to the increasing 

levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other 

greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, which have set in motion a series 

of changes in the planet’s climate system. 

Far greater changes are inevitable not 

only because emissions will continue, but 

also because CO2 stays in the atmosphere 

for a long time. Even if further GHG 

emissions were halted today, alterations 

already underway in the Earth’s climate 

will last for hundreds or thousands of 

years. If GHG emissions continue, as is 

currently more likely, the planet’s average 

temperature is projected to rise by 2.0 

to 11.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of 

the century, with accompanying major 

changes in extreme weather events, 

variable and/or inconsistent weather 

patterns, sea level rise, and changing 

ocean conditions including increased 

acidi!cation.

Safeguarding our valuable living 

resources in a changing climate for 

current and future generations is a 

serious and urgent problem. Addressing 

the problem requires action now to 

understand current impacts, assess future 

risks, and prepare for and adapt to a 

changing climate. "is National Fish, 

Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation 

Strategy (herea$er Strategy) is a call to 

action–a framework for e#ective steps 

These impacts are expected to increase with continued changes in the 

planet’s climate system, putting many of the nation’s valuable natural resources 

at risk. Action is needed now to reduce these impacts (including reducing the 

drivers of climate change) and help sustain the natural resources and services 

the nation depends on.

Because the development of this adaptation Strategy will only be worthwhile if it 

leads to meaningful action, it is directly 

aimed at several key groups: natural 

resource management agency leaders and 

sta# (federal, state, and tribal); elected 

o%cials in both executive and legislative government branches (federal, state, 

local, and tribal); leaders in industries 

that depend on and can impact natural 

resources, such as agriculture, forestry, 

and recreation; and private landowners, 

whose role is crucial because they own 

more than 70 percent of the land in the 

United States.

"e Strategy should also be useful for 

decision makers in sectors that a#ect 

natural resources (such as agriculture, 

energy, urban development, transportation, and water resource management), 

for conservation partners, for educators, 

and for the interested public, whose input 

and decisions will have major impacts on 

safeguarding the nation’s living resources 

in the face of climate change. "e Strategy

also should be useful to those in other 

countries dealing with these same issues 

and those dealing with the international 

dimensions of climate adaptation.

USFWS
2 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Executive Summary

Fish, wildlife, and plants provide jobs, food, clean 

water, storm protection, health benefits and many 

other important ecosystem services that support 

people, communities and economies across the 

nation every day. The observed changes in the climate 

are already impacting these valuable resources and 

systems. These impacts are expected to increase with 

continued changes in the planet’s climate system. 

Action is needed now to help safeguard these natural 

resources and the communities and economies that 

depend on them.

Measurements unequivocally show that average surface air temperatures in the United States have risen two 

degrees Fahrenheit (°F) over the last 

50 years. The science strongly supports 

the finding that the underlying cause 

of these changes is the accumulation of 

heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2) and 

other greenhouse gases (GHG) in the 

atmosphere. If GHG emissions continue 

unabated, the planet’s average temperature is projected to rise by an additional 

2.0 to 11.5 °F by the end of the century, 

with accompanying increases in extreme 

weather events, variable and/or inconsistent weather patterns, sea levels and 

other factors with significant impacts 

on natural environments and the vital 

services they provide.

Faced with a future climate that will 

be unlike that of the recent past, the 

nation has the opportunity to act now 

to reduce the impacts of climate change 

on its valuable natural resources and 

resource-dependent communities and 

businesses. Preparing for and addressing 

these changes in the near term can help 

increase the efficiency and effectiveness 

of actions to reduce negative impacts 

and take advantage of potential benefits 

from a changing climate (climate adaptation). In 2009, Congress recognized 

the need for a national government-

“...develop a national, 

government-wide strategy to 

address climate impacts on fish, 

wildlife, plants, and associated 

ecological processes.”

—Department of the Interior, Environment, 

and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2010

gary wise
Executive Summary | 3

and other decision makers to take 

effective steps towards climate change 

adaptation over the next five to ten years. 

Federal, state, and tribal governments 

and conservation partners are encouraged to read the Strategy in its entirety 

to identify intersections between the 

document and their mission areas and 

activities.

The Strategy is guided by nine principles. 

These principles include collaborating 

across all levels of government, working 

with non-government entities such as 

private landowners and other sectors like 

agriculture and energy, and engaging the 

public. It is also important to use the best 

available science—and to identify where 

science and management capabilities 

must be improved or enhanced. When 

adaptation steps are taken, it is crucial 

to carefully monitor actual outcomes in 

order to adjust future actions to make 

them more effective, an iterative process 

called adaptive management. We must 

also link efforts within the U.S. with 

wide climate adaptation strategy for fish, 

wildlife, plants, and ecosystems, asking 

the Council on Environmental Quality 

(CEQ) and the U.S. Department of the 

Interior (DOI) to develop such a strategy. 

CEQ and DOI responded by assembling 

an unprecedented partnership of federal, 

state, and tribal fish and wildlife conservation agencies to draft the document. 

More than 90 diverse technical, scientific, 

and management experts from across the 

country participated in drafting the 

technical content of the document.

The result is The National Fish, Wildlife 

and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

(hereafter Strategy). The Strategy is the 

first joint effort of three levels of government (federal, state, and tribal) that have 

primary authority and responsibility for 

the living resources of the United States 

to identify what must be done to help 

these resources become more resilient, 

adapt to, and survive a warming climate. 

It is designed to inspire and enable 

natural resource managers, legislators, 

efforts internationally to build resilience and adaptation for species that 

migrate and depend on areas beyond 

U.S. borders. Finally, given the size and 

urgency of the challenge, we must begin 

acting now.

Climate Change 

Impacts on Natural 

Systems

The Strategy details the current and expected future impacts of climate 

change on the eight major ecosystem 

types in the United States (Chapter 2). 

For example, warmer temperatures 

and changing precipitation patterns are 

expected to cause more fires and more 

pest outbreaks, such as the mountain 

pine beetle epidemic in western forests, 

while some types of forests will displace 

what is now tundra. Grasslands and 

shrublands are likely to be invaded by 

non-native species and suffer wetland 

losses from drier conditions, which 

would decrease nesting habitat for waterfowl. Deserts are expected to get hotter 

and drier, accelerating existing declines 

in species like the Saguaro cactus.

Climate change is expected to be 

especially dramatic in the Arctic. 

Temperature increases in northern 

Alaska would change tussock tundra 

into shrublands, leading to increased fire 

risk. In addition, the thawing of frozen 

organic material in soils would release 

huge amounts of GHGs, contributing to 

climate change. In coastal and marine 

areas, the loss of sea ice and changing 

ocean conditions are threatening key 

species such as walrus, ice seals and polar 

bears as well as the lifestyles and subsistence economics of indigenous peoples.

Global annual 

average 

temperature from 

1901–2000, 

indicating a 

clear long-term 

global warming 

trend. Orange 

bars indicate 

temperatures 

above and blue 

bars indicate 

temperatures 

below the average. 

The black line 

shows atmospheric 

carbon dioxide 

(CO2) concentration 

in parts per 

million (ppm).

58.5°F

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

260

58.0°F

57.5°F

57.0°F

56.5°F

CO2 CONCENTRATION (PPM)

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

source: usgcrp 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States.
4 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

areas (including refugia and corridors 

of habitat that allow species to migrate), 

and areas where habitat restoration can 

promote resiliency and adaptation of 

species and ecosystem functions.

In addition to traditional habitat restoration and protection efforts, this Strategy

envisions innovative opportunities for 

creating additional habitat. For example, 

the U.S. Department of Agriculture 

(USDA) works with farmers and ranchers 

to cost-share conservation practices that 

benefit at-risk, threatened, or endangered species, such as the lesser prairie 

chicken. These efforts may be useful in 

responding to climate change as well as 

other existing conservation challenges. 

Similarly, adjusting rice farming practices 

in Louisiana could provide valuable new 

resources for a variety of waterfowl and 

shorebirds whose habitat is now disappearing because of wetland loss and sea 

level rise.

It is also possible to use applied management to make habitats and species 

more resistant to climate change so 

they continue to provide sustainable 

cultural, subsistence, recreational, and 

commercial uses. For example, managing 

stream corridors to preserve functional 

processes and reconnect channels with 

well-vegetated floodplains may help 

to ensure a steady supply of groundwater recharge that maintains coldwater 

species even when air temperatures rise. 

Floodplains serve as vital hydrologic 

capacitors, and may become even more 

important in many parts of the country 

as more precipitation falls as rain instead 

of snow. Protecting and restoring stream 

habitats to maintain more narrow and 

deep stream beds and riparian shade 

cover can also help keep water temperatures cool in a warming climate.

Climate Change 

Adaptation Strategies 

and Actions

The Strategy describes steps that can be taken to address these impacts and 

help conserve ecosystems and make them 

more resilient (Chapter 3). Proposed 

strategies and actions along with checklists to monitor progress are organized 

under seven major goals in the Strategy: 

1 | Conserve and connect habitat

2 | Manage species and habitats

3 | Enhance management capacity

4 | Support adaptive management

5 | Increase knowledge and information

6 | Increase awareness and motivate 

action

7 | Reduce non-climate stressors

Many proposed actions describe types of 

conservation activities that management 

agencies have traditionally undertaken 

but that will continue to be useful in a 

period of climate change. Other actions 

are designed specifically to respond to 

the new challenges posed by climate 

change.

An extremely important approach for 

helping fish, wildlife, and plants adapt 

to climate change is conserving enough 

suitable habitat to sustain diverse and 

healthy populations. Many wildlife 

refuges and habitats could lose some of 

their original values, as the plants and 

animals they safeguard are forced to 

move into more hospitable climes. As a 

result, there is an urgent need to identify 

the best candidates for new conservation 

Rivers, streams, and lakes face higher 

temperatures that harm coldwater 

species like salmon and trout, while sea 

level rise threatens coastal marshes and 

beaches, which are crucial habitats for 

many species, such as the diamondback 

terrapin and the piping plover.

Since water can absorb CO2 from the air, 

the rising levels of the gas in the atmosphere and accompanying absorption 

into the oceans have caused ocean waters 

to become 30 percent more acidic since 

1750. Acidification is already affecting 

the reproduction of organisms such as 

oysters. As the pH of seawater continues 

to drop, major impacts on aquatic ecosystems and species are expected.

Executive Summary

Loss of arctic ice means loss of valuable 

habitat for many marine species.

USFWS/Joel Garlich-Miller
Executive Summary | 5

of ecosystem services provided by wellfunctioning ecosystems also are needed. 

For example, there may be fewer salmon 

for commercial and recreational harvest, 

as well as for traditional ceremonial and 

cultural practices of indigenous peoples.

Adaptation efforts will be most successful 

if they have broad support and if key 

groups are motivated to take action 

themselves. Efforts to increase awareness and motivate action should be 

targeted toward elected officials, public 

and private decision makers, groups that 

are interested in learning more about 

climate change, private landowners, and 

natural resource user groups. Engaging 

these stakeholders early and repeatedly to 

increase awareness of climate change, to 

develop integrated adaptation responses, 

and to motivate their participation is key 

to making this Strategy work.

Reducing existing stressors on fish, wildlife, and plants may be one of the most 

effective, and doable, ways to increase 

resilience to climate change. Many 

existing non-climate stressors may be 

exacerbated by climate change. In particular, avoiding, reducing and addressing 

the ongoing habitat degradation (e.g., 

pollution, loss of open space) associated with human development is critical 

and requires collaboration with land-use 

planners and private land owners. Taking 

steps to reduce stressors not related to 

climate, such as fighting invasive species 

like water hyacinth, can help natural 

systems cope with the additional pressures imposed by a changing climate.

Reducing existing stressors on 

fish, wildlife, and plants may 

be one of the most effective, 

and doable, ways to increase 

resilience to climate change.

It will frequently be difficult to predict 

how individual species and ecosystems 

will react to climate change. Adaptation 

in the face of uncertain impacts requires 

coordinated observation and monitoring, 

information management and decision 

support systems, and a commitment 

to adaptive management approaches. 

Coordinated information management 

systems, such as the National Ecological 

Observatory Network and the Integrated 

Ocean Observing System, that link and 

make available the data developed by 

separate agencies or groups have a critical role to play in increasing access to 

and use of this information by resource 

managers, planners, and decision makers. 

Vulnerability assessments are key steps 

to help managers develop and prioritize 

adaptation efforts and inform management approaches.

Additional research and modeling efforts 

are needed to increase knowledge about 

the specific impacts of climate change 

on fish, wildlife, plants, and habitats and 

their adaptive capacity to respond. The 

use of models has already produced valuable information for planning for climate 

change impacts, and more refined 

models at temporal and spatial scales 

appropriate to adaptation are required. 

Methods to objectively quantify the value 

Climate change adaptation requires 

new ways of assessing information, new 

management tools and professional skills, 

increased collaboration across jurisdictions, and review of laws, regulations, 

and policies to ensure effectiveness 

in a changing world. Climate change 

impacts are occurring at scales much 

larger than the operational scope of individual organizations and agencies, and 

successful adaptation demands strong 

collaboration among all jurisdictions. 

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives 

(LCCs), migratory bird and other Joint 

Ventures (JVs), National Fish Habitat 

Partnerships (NFHPs), and other existing 

and emerging partnerships are useful 

vehicles to promote diverse collaboration across larger scales. Because of 

the dependence of Native Americans, 

Alaska Natives and other groups on their 

natural resources for their economic 

and cultural identity, climate change 

is a threat not only to those natural 

resources, but also to the traditions, the 

culture, and ultimately, the very health of 

the communities themselves. Indigenous 

communities possess traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and relationships 

with particular resources and homeland 

areas, accumulated through thousands 

of years of history and tradition, which 

make them highly sensitive to, and 

aware of, environmental change. Alaska 

provides an excellent example of not 

only how TEK can be successfully integrated into management activities, but 

also how this knowledge can be collected, 

used, and protected in a respectful and 

culturally-sensitive manner, benefitting 

both indigenous and non-indigenous 

communities.
6 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

of adaptation and conservation efforts 

and programs (Chapter 5) at local, state, 

regional and national levels. Examples 

include the U.S. Global Change Research 

Program (USGCRP), which produces 

the National Climate Assessment (NCA) 

every four years; the Interagency Climate 

Change Adaptation Task Force (ICCATF) 

that provides a venue to communicate 

and help coordinate U.S. federal agency 

adaptation efforts; State Wildlife Action 

Plans; EPA regional initiatives such as 

the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative; 

and the work of the LCCs. Implementing 

the Strategy will require coordination 

and collaboration among these and 

many other entities. The Strategy calls 

for creation of a coordination body to 

oversee its implementation and engage 

with conservation partners.

Integration and 

Implementation

The Strategy emphasizes that actions to help fish, wildlife, plants, and natural 

systems adapt to climate change can 

be coordinated with measures taken in 

other sectors, such as agriculture, energy, 

water, and transportation, to increase 

the benefits for all sectors (Chapter 4). 

One example of an action that benefits 

multiple sectors and ecosystems is better 

management of stormwater runoff, 

which not only reduces risks of flooding 

in cities, but also reduces the threat that 

toxic algal blooms will affect aquatic 

ecosystems.

The Strategy is designed to build upon 

and complement the growing number 

The Strategy is a call 

to action. We can take 

effective action to reduce 

risks and increase resiliency 

of valuable natural 

resources. Unless the 

nation begins a serious 

effort to undertake this 

task now, we risk losing 

priceless living systems— 

and the benefits and 

services they provide— 

as the climate changes.

Executive Summary

usfws
About the Strategy | 7

CH.1 About the Strategy

The purpose of the National Fish, Wildlife and Plants 

Climate Adaptation Strategy (hereafter Strategy) is 

to inspire and enable natural resource administrators, 

elected officials, and other decision makers to 

take action to help the nation’s valuable natural 

resources and people that depend on them adapt 

to a changing climate.

The Strategy identifies major 

goals and outlines strategies 

and actions needed to attain 

those goals.

1.1 A Broad National 

Effort

Adaptation actions are vital to sustaining the nation’s ecosystems 

and natural resources—as well as the 

human uses and values that the natural 

world provides. The Strategy explains the 

challenge ahead and offers a guide for 

actions that can be taken now, in spite 

of remaining uncertainties over how 

climate change will impact living 

resources. It further provides guidance 

on longer-term actions most likely to 

promote natural resource adaptation to 

climate change. Because climate adaptation cuts across many boundaries, the 

Strategy also describes mechanisms to 

increase collaboration among all levels of 

government, conservation organizations, 

and private landowners.

The Strategy focuses on preparing for 

and reducing the most serious impacts of 

climate change and related non-climate 

stressors on fish, wildlife, and plants. It 

places priority on addressing impacts 

for which there is enough information 

 to recommend sensible actions that can 

be taken or initiated over the next five 

to ten years in the context of climate 

change projections through the end of 

the century. Further, it identifies key 

knowledge, technology, information, 

and governance gaps that hamper 

effective action. While the Strategy

is focused on adaptation rather than 

mitigation (or reduction) of GHGs, it 

includes approaches that may also have 

mitigation benefits.

The Strategy is not a detailed assessment 

of climate science or a comprehensive 

report of the impacts of climate change 

on individual species or ecosystems; an 

abundant and growing literature on those 

Paul Sundberg
8 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

adaptation of ecosystems and resources 

(CCSP 2008c). In addition, a coalition 

of hunting and fishing organizations 

published reports in 2008 and 2009 on 

the current and future impacts of climate 

change on fish and wildlife and called 

for increased action to help sustain these 

resources in a changing climate (Wildlife 

Management Institute 2008, 2009).

Congress asked CEQ and DOI to develop 

a national strategy to “...assist fish, 

wildlife, plants, and related ecological 

processes in becoming more resilient, 

adapting to, and surviving the impacts 

of climate change” as part of the 2010 

Appropriations Bill for the Department 

of the Interior and Related Agencies 

(U.S. Congress 2010). Acting for DOI, 

the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 

(FWS) and CEQ then invited the 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration (NOAA) and state wildlife agencies, with the New York State 

Division of Fish, Wildlife, and Marine 

Resources as their lead representative, to co-lead the development of the 

Strategy. In October of 2010, the ICCATF 

endorsed the development of the Strategy

as a key step in advancing U.S. efforts to 

adapt to a changing climate.1

A 22-person Steering Committee was 

formed in January 2011, and includes 

representatives from 15 federal agencies with management authorities for 

fish, wildlife, plants, or habitat, as well 

as representatives from five state fish 

and wildlife agencies and two intertribal 

commissions. The Committee charged 

a small Management Team, including 

1 See “Progress Report of the Interagency Climate 

Adaptation Task Force: Recommended Actions in 

Support of a National Climate Change Adaptation 

Strategy. <www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/

microsites/ceq/Interagency-Climate-Change-AdaptationProgress-Report.pdf>

In order for the Strategy to be effectively implemented, progress should be 

periodically evaluated and the Strategy

reassessed and updated through the 

same sort of collaborative process as was 

employed in the production of this first 

effort. The Strategy calls for formation of 

a coordinating body with representation 

from federal, state, and tribal governments meet semi-annually to promote 

and evaluate implementation and to 

report progress annually.

1.2 Origin and 

Development

Over the past decade, there have been an increasing number of calls 

by government and non-governmental 

entities for a national effort to better 

understand, prepare for and address the 

impacts of climate change on natural 

resources and the communities that 

depend on them. These calls helped lay 

the foundation for development of 

this Strategy.

For example, in 2007, the U.S. 

Government Accountability Office 

(GAO) released a study entitled “Climate 

Change: Agencies Should Develop 

Guidance for Addressing the Effects 

on Federal Land and Water Resources,” 

recommending that guidance and tools 

be developed to help federal natural 

resource managers address and incorporate climate change into their resource 

management efforts (GAO 2007). In 

2008, the USGCRP released the report 

Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options 

for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and 

Resources that called for and identified new approaches to natural resource 

management to increase resiliency and 

topics already exists (IPCC AR4 2007, 

USGCRP 2009, Parmesan 2006). It is 

not a detailed operational plan, nor does 

it prescribe specific actions to be taken 

by specific agencies or organizations, 

or specific management actions 

for individual species. Rather, this is 

a broad national adaptation strategy: 

it identifies major goals and outlines 

strategies and actions needed to attain 

those goals. It describes the “why, what, 

and when” of what the nation must do to 

assist our living resources to cope with 

climate change. The “who, where, and 

how” of these strategies and actions must 

be decided through the many existing 

collaborative processes for management 

planning, decision-making, and action. 

In addition, the development of 

strategies and actions for this document 

was not constrained by assumptions of 

current or future available resources. 

The implementation of recommended 

strategies and actions, and the allocation of resources towards them, are the 

prerogative of the Strategy audience, 

(e.g., decision makers).

Federal, tribal, state, and local governments and conservation partners have 

initiated a variety of efforts to help 

prepare for and respond to the impacts 

of climate change on the nation’s natural 

resources and the valuable services they 

provide. This Strategy is designed to build 

on and assist these efforts across multiple 

scales and organizations. These entities 

are encouraged to identify areas of the 

Strategy that bear on their missions and 

work collaboratively with other organizations to design and implement specific 

actions to reduce the impacts of climate 

change on fish, wildlife, and plants.

About the Strategy
About the Strategy | 9

» Extreme events like heat waves and 

regional droughts have become more 

frequent and intense;

» Hurricanes in the Atlantic and eastern 

Pacific have gotten stronger in the past 

few decades;

» Sea levels have risen eight inches 

globally over the past century and are 

climbing along most of our nation’s 

coastline;

» Cold season storm tracks are shifting 

northward;

» The annual extent of Arctic sea ice is 

shrinking rapidly; and

» Oceans are becoming more acidic.

All of these changes have been well 

documented and described in the report: 

Global Climate Change Impacts in the 

United States (USGCRP 2009), the 

primary scientific reference on climate 

change science for this document. 

Moreover, the changes are harbingers of 

far greater changes to come. 

1.3 The Case for Action

1.3.1 The Climate is Changing

Measurements and observations show 

unequivocally that the Earth’s climate is 

currently in a period of unusually rapid 

change. The impacts of climate change 

are occurring across the United States. 

For example:

» Average air temperature has increased 

two degrees Fahrenheit (°F) and 

precipitation has increased approximately five percent in the United States 

in the last 50 years;

» Average global ocean temperatures 

have increased nearly 0.4°F since 1955;

» The amount of rain falling in the 

heaviest storms is up 20 percent in the 

last century, causing unprecedented 

floods;

representatives of the FWS, NOAA, the 

Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies 

(AFWA, representing the states), and 

the Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife 

Commission, to oversee the day-today development of the Strategy. The 

Management Team was asked to engage 

with a diverse group of stakeholders, as 

well as to coordinate and communicate 

across agencies and departments.

In March of 2011, the Management Team 

invited more than 90 natural resource 

professionals (both researchers and 

managers) from federal, state, and tribal 

agencies to form eight Technical Teams, 

each centered around a major U.S. 

ecosystem type. These Teams, which were 

co-chaired by federal, state, and tribal 

representatives, worked over the next 

eight months to provide technical information on climate change impacts and 

to collectively develop the strategies and 

actions for adapting to climate change. 

The Management Team worked to identify and distill the primary approaches 

common across ecosystems into the 

seven overarching goals, discussed in 

detail in Chapter 3.

Unless the nation begins a serious effort to 

undertake adaptation efforts now, we risk 

losing priceless living systems—and the 

benefits and services they provide—as the 

climate changes.

Ryan Hagarty/usfws
10 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

The science strongly supports the finding 

that the underlying cause of today’s 

rising temperatures, melting ice, shifting 

weather, increasing ocean acidification 

and other changes is the accumulation 

of heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2) 

and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) 

in the atmosphere (IPCC AR4 2007, 

USGCRP 2009, NRC 2010). Because 

CO2 remains in the atmosphere for many 

years, CO2 that has already been emitted 

will continue to warm the Earth (and 

contribute to ocean acidification) for 

decades or centuries to come (Wigley 

2005). Meanwhile, GHG emissions 

continue, increasing the concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere. 

Our future climate will be unlike that of 

the recent past. Traditional and proven 

approaches for managing fish, wildlife, 

plants, ecosystems, and their human uses 

may no longer be effective given the scale 

and scope of climate-driven changes.

Species are shifting 

their geographic 

ranges, often moving 

poleward or upwards 

in elevation. For 

instance, geese that 

formally wintered 

along the Missouri 

River in Nebraska and South Dakota now seem 

to migrate only as far south as North Dakota, 

to the dismay of waterfowl hunters (Wildlife 

Management Institute 2008). These shifts 

may also bring wildlife into more densely 

populated human areas, creating situations 

of human-wildlife conflict. In addition, some 

marine species are also shifting both location 

and depth (Nye et al. 2009).

The phenology, such 

as spring blooming, 

is changing (Post et 

al. 2001). This could 

affect whether or not 

plants are successfully pollinated (the 

pollinators might come 

at the wrong time), or whether or not food is 

available when needed. For example, in the 

Rocky Mountains, the American robin (see 

Appendix D for a list of scientific names of 

species mentioned in the text) is now arriving 

up to two weeks earlier than it did two decades 

ago. However, the date of snow melt has not 

advanced, so food resources may be limited 

when the birds arrive (Inouye et al. 2000).

Since water absorbs 

CO2, the oceans are 

becoming more 

acidic, affecting 

the reproduction 

of species such

 as oysters (Feely et 

al. 2008). The pH of 

seawater has decreased since 1750, and is 

projected to drop much more by the end of 

the century as CO2 concentrations continue 

to increase (USGCRP 2009). Although not 

technically climate change, this additional 

impact of the accumulation of CO2 in the 

atmosphere is expected to have major impacts 

on aquatic ecosystems and species.

Different species are 

responding differently 

to changes in climate, 

leading to decoupling of important 

ecological relationships (Edwards and 

Richardson 2004). 

For example, changes in phenology for 

Edith’s checkerspot butterfly are leading to 

mismatches with both caterpillar host plants 

and nectar sources for adult butterflies, 

leading to population crashes in some areas 

(Parmesan 2006).

Habitat loss is 

increasing due to 

ecological changes 

associated with 

climate change, 

such as sea level 

rise, increased fire, 

pest outbreaks, 

novel weather patterns, or loss of glaciers. 

For example, habitat for rainbow trout in 

the southern Appalachians is being greatly 

reduced as water temperatures rise 

(Flebbe et al. 2006).

Declines in the 

populations of 

species, from 

mollusks off the coast 

of Alaska to frogs in 

Yellowstone, are 

being attributed to 

climate change 

(Maclean and Wilson 2011).

The spread of 

non-native species

as well as diseases, 

pests, contaminants, 

and parasites are 

becoming more 

common. For instance, 

warmer temperatures 

are enabling a salmon parasite to invade 

the Yukon River, causing economic harm to 

indigenous peoples and the fishing industry 

(Kocan et al. 2004). Also, the increasing 

threats of wildlife diseases due to non-native 

species include diseases transmissible 

between animals and humans, which could 

negatively impact native species, domestic 

animals, and humans (Hoffmeister et al. 

2010).

About the Strategy Observed Changes to Ecosystems and Species

bill lynch afwa

Shelley Ellis/NWF john lyons brome mccreary tim torrell

noaa
Section Name | 11

Case Study

Hotter summers threaten eastern brook trout

The West Fork of the Kickapoo River

in western Wisconsin is an angler’s paradise. Its cool, shaded waters and pools 

abound with native brook trout. But brook 

trout require cold water to reproduce and 

survive—and water temperatures are 

already rising. By the end of this century, 

the self-sustaining population in the 

West Fork could be gone. In fact, up to 

94 percent of current brook trout habitat 

in Wisconsin could be lost with a 5.4 °F 

increase in air temperature (Mitro et al. 

2010). Although climate change has not 

caused the loss of any brook trout populations to date, the warming effects on air 

temperature is projected to significantly 

reduce the current range of brook trout in 

the eastern United States.

The threat is not limited to Wisconsin or to 

brook trout. Climate change is viewed as 

one of the most important stressors of 

fish populations, and coldwater fish species 

are especially susceptible to rising temperatures. Declining populations would have 

serious ecological and economic consequences, since these fish are key sources 

of nutrients for many other species and 

provide major fishing industries in the 

Northeast, Northwest, and Alaska (Trout 

Unlimited 2007).

In some cases, adaptation measures may 

help reduce the threat. The first step is 

measuring stream water temperatures and 

flow rates to identify which trout habitats 

are at greatest risk. Monitoring efforts 

have already shown that some trout 

streams are at lower risk because they 

have water temperatures far below lethal 

limits, while other streams are not likely to 

see increases in water temperatures even 

when air temperatures rise, since adequate 

amounts of cool groundwater sustain the 

stream’s baseflow in summer. This information enables fisheries managers to focus on 

the streams and rivers that are at greater 

risk from climate change and from changing 

land use that would decrease groundwater 

discharge rates. In some streams, these 

deteriorating conditions are unlikely to be 

reversed. 

In other streams, adaptation strategies can 

be implemented to reduce stream water 

temperatures such as planting trees and 

other streambank vegetation for shade, 

or restoring stream channel morphology 

to reduce solar heating. For example, 

managing stream corridors to preserve 

functional processes and reconnect channels with well-vegetated floodplains may 

help to ensure a steady supply of groundwater recharge that maintains coldwater 

species even when air temperatures rise. 

Floodplains serve as vital hydrologic capacitors, and may become even more important 

in many parts of the country as more 

precipitation falls as rain instead of snow. 

Protecting and enhancing water infiltration 

rates on land is another adaptation strategy 

that can increase cooler groundwater 

discharge rates during the critical summer 

low flow conditions.

This “triage” stream assessment approach 

is similar to how accident or battlefield 

responders work, where efforts are focused 

on those most likely to respond to treatment. Thus, limited funding is directed 

toward streams that are at higher risk from 

the effects of rising temperatures, and on 

streams where adaptation actions are more 

likely to have a positive impact.

Heat stress is the 

biggest threat to cold 

water fish species 

and brook trout are 

particularly sensitive. 1.3.2 Impacts to Fish, Wildlife, 

and Plants

Given the magnitude of the observed 

changes in climate, it is not surprising 

that fish, wildlife, and plant resources in 

the United States and around the world 

are already being affected. The impacts 

can be seen everywhere from working 

landscapes like tree farms and pastures 

to wilderness areas far from human 

habitation (Parmesan 2006, Doney et 

al. 2012). Although definitively establishing cause and effect in any specific 

case can be problematic, the overall 

pattern of observed changes in species’ 

distributions and phenology (the timing 

of life events) is consistent with biologists’ expectations for a warming climate 

(Parmesan 2006, Doney et al. 2012). As 

the emissions of GHGs and the resulting 

climate changes continue to increase in 

the next century, so too will the effects on 

species, ecosystems, and their functions 

(USGCRP 2009). Human responses to 

the challenge of climate change will also 

affect, perhaps substantially, the natural 

world. Furthermore, climatic change and 

the human response to it are also likely to 

exacerbate existing stressors like habitat 

loss and fragmentation, putting additional pressure on our nation’s valued 

living resources (USGCRP 2009). 

Chuck Krueger/Great Lakes Fishery Commission
12 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

The continuance or growth of these types 

of economic activities is directly related 

to the extent and health of our nation’s 

ecosystems and the services they provide.

Natural resources provide a wide variety 

of other types of benefits and services 

to people and communities every day, 

many of which are not traded in markets 

and are sometimes difficult to monetize. For example, forests help provide 

clean drinking water for many cities 

and towns. Coastal habitats such as 

coral reefs, wetlands, and mangroves 

help protect people and communities 

from storms, erosion, and flood damage 

(DOI and DOC 2006, CCSP 2009a). 

For many people, quality of life depends 

on frequent interaction with wildlife. 

Others simply take comfort in knowing 

that the wildlife and natural places that 

they know and love still survive, at least 

somewhere. 

For many Native Americans and rural 

Americans, wild species and habitats are 

central to their very cultural identities 

as well as their livelihoods. The animals 

and plants that are culturally important 

to these communities have values that are 

difficult to quantify and weigh in monetary terms; but this makes them no less 

valuable to people.

saltwater fishing trips occurred along 

U.S. coasts, generating $50 billion in sales 

impacts and supporting over 327,000 

jobs (NMFS 2010). Aquatic habitat and 

species conservation alone contributes 

over $3.6 billion per year to the economy 

in the U.S., and supports over 68,000 

jobs (Charbonneau and Caudill 2010). 

Americans and foreign visitors made 

some 439 million visits to DOI-managed 

lands in 2009. These visits (an example 

of a cultural service) supported over 

388,000 jobs and contributed over 

$47 billion in economic activity. 

The U.S. seafood industry—

most of which is based on wild, 

free-ranging marine species—

annually supports approximately 

1 million full-and part-time jobs.

This economic output represents about 

eight percent of the direct output of 

tourism-related personal consumption expenditures for the United States 

for 2009 and about 1.3 percent of the 

direct tourism related employment (DOI 

2011). Every year, coastal habitats such 

as coral reefs, wetlands, and mangroves 

help protect people, infra-structure and 

communities from storms, erosion, and 

flood damage worth billions of dollars 

(DOI and DOC 2006, CCSP 2009a). 

1.3.3 Ecosystem Services

Natural systems are of fundamental value 

and benefit to people. Natural environments provide enormously valuable, but 

largely unaccounted for, services that 

support people as well as other species 

(NRC 2004, NRC 2012, PCAST 2011). 

The materials and processes that ecosystems produce that are of value to people 

are known as “ecosystem services” and 

can be organized into four general 

categories (Millennium Ecosystem 

Assessment 2005):

» Provisioning Services, including food, 

water, medicines, and wood.

» Regulating Services, such as climate 

regulation, flood suppression, disease/

pest control, and water filtration.

» Cultural Services, such as aesthetic, 

spiritual, educational, and recreational 

services.

» Supporting Services, such as nutrient 

cycling, soil formation, pollination, 

and plant productivity.

Economic contributions of ecosystem 

services have been quantified in some 

areas. For example, hunting, fishing, 

and other wildlife-related recreation 

in the United States (an example of 

provisioning and cultural services) is 

estimated to contribute $122 billion to 

our nation’s economy annually (DOI and 

DOC 2006). The U.S. seafood industry—

most of which is based on wild, 

free-ranging marine species—supported 

approximately 1 million full-and parttime jobs and generated $116 billion in 

sales impacts and $32 billion in income 

impacts in 2009 (NMFS 2010). Marine 

recreational fishing also contributes to 

coastal areas as an economic engine; 

in 2009, approximately 74 million 

Natural environments provide enormously 

valuable services and goods that benefit 

humans and other species.

About the Strategy

noaa
About the Strategy | 13

» The valuation exercise should focus on 

changes in ecosystem goods or services 

attributable to a policy action, relative 

to a baseline.

Where an ecosystem’s services and goods 

can be identified and measured, it will 

often be possible to assign values to them 

by employing existing economic valuation methods. However, some ecosystem 

goods and services resist valuation 

because they are not easily quantifiable or because available methods are 

not appropriate, reliable, or fully developed. Economic valuation methods can 

be complex and demanding, and the 

results of applying these methods may 

be subject to judgment, uncertainty, bias, 

and market imperfections. There is also 

the risk that, where not all values can be 

estimated, those that can be valued lead 

to management that harms the overall 

system in pursuit of maximizing only 

that portion of its values (e.g., replacing 

natural wetland communities with 

monotypic wetlands to maximize water 

purification).

However, if policymakers consider benefits, costs, and trade-offs when making 

policy decisions, then monetization of 

the value of ecosystem services is essential. Failure to include some measure 

of the value of ecosystem services in 

benefit-cost calculations will implicitly 

and erroneously assign them a value of 

zero. In brief:

» If the benefits and costs of an adaption 

action or policy are to be evaluated, 

the benefits and costs associated with 

changes in ecosystem services should 

be included along with other impacts 

to ensure that ecosystem effects are 

adequately considered in policy 

evaluation.

» Economic valuation of changes in 

ecosystem services should be based on 

the total economic value framework, 

which includes both use and nonuse 

values.

Over the past two decades the emerging 

environmental marketplace has been 

delivering evidence that at least some 

ecosystem services can be partially 

captured in markets. The buying, selling, 

and trading of ecosystem services 

as commercial commodities is now 

routinely occurring. Carbon credits, 

wetland credits, emission reduction 

credits, and species credits represent 

voluntary improvements in air and 

water quality and supply, land use and 

waste management, as well as biodiversity protection. These commodities 

are now exchanged across a number of 

recognized regional, national, and international platforms. Because these credits 

have achieved measureable monetary 

value representing incremental improvements in ecological health and integrity, 

they shed some light on the overall value 

of ecosystem services. For example, the 

total global value of tradable ecological 

assets (water, carbon, and biodiversity) 

exceeded $250 billion in 2011 (Carroll 

and Jenkins 2012).

Despite growing recognition of the 

importance of ecosystem functions and 

services, they are often taken for granted, 

undervalued, and overlooked in environmental decision-making (NRC 2012). 

Thus, choices between the conservation and restoration of some ecosystems 

and the continuation and expansion of 

human activities in others have to be 

made in recognition of this potential for 

conflict and of the value of ecosystem 

services. In making these choices, the 

economic values of the ecosystem goods 

and services must be known so that they 

can be compared with the economic 

values of activities that may compromise 

them (NRC 2004, NRC 2012).

“Blue carbon” is a 

term used to describe 

the biological carbon 

sequestered and stored 

by marine and coastal 

organisms, with a 

significant fraction being 

stored in sediments, 

coastal seagrasses, 

tidal marshes, and 

mangroves.

Some actions, like strategies that preserve 

or enhance the carbon sequestration 

capacity of an ecosystem, can serve 

to mitigate or reduce the emission of 

GHGs while also improving the adaptive 

capacity of the ecosystem (i.e., providing 

multiple ecosystem services). While the 

Strategy is not focused on mitigation 

per se, it includes strategies and actions 

that serve mitigation as well as adaptation goals. Unlike actions to mitigate the 

impacts of climate change (which often 

require coordinated actions at various 

levels of government), adaptation decisions are largely decentralized. They will 

be made to a large extent in well-established decision-making contexts such as 

private sector decision-making or public 

sector planning efforts. Some adaptations will benefit the public and as such, 

may be provided by the local, state, tribal, 

USFWS/Steve Hillebrand
14 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

1.3.4 Adaptation to Climate 

Change

While addressing the causes of climate 

change (i.e., mitigation) is absolutely 

necessary, mitigation will not be sufficient to prevent major impacts due to 

the amount of GHGs that have already 

been emitted into the global atmosphere. 

Society’s choices of what actions to take 

in the face of climate change can either 

make it harder or easier for our living 

resources to persist in spite of climate 

change. Effective action by managers, 

communities, and the public is both 

possible (see Chapter 3) and crucial.

Adaptation in the climate change context 

has been specifically defined as an 

“adjustment in natural or human systems 

Case Study

What happens to Tribal identity if birch bark vanishes?

or federal government. These adaptation 

decisions can be evaluated using traditional tools such as cost-benefit analysis. 

In certain circumstances, ethnographic 

research may prove more useful than 

cost-benefit analysis in understanding 

perceived public benefits. Private sector 

decisions are likely to be evaluated using 

standard investment appraisal techniques, for example, calculating the net 

present value of an adaptation investment, 

analyzing its risks and returns, or determining the return on capital invested.

A full accounting of ecosystem services 

has yet to be done for any ecosystem. 

Nevertheless, as climate change influences 

the distribution, extent, and composition 

of ecosystems, it will also affect the spectrum of services and economic value 

those ecosystems provide.

Climate change models suggest that 

by 2100, the paper birch tree may no 

longer be able to survive throughout its 

range in the United States (Prasad et al. 

2007). This would be not just an ecological 

loss, but a devastating cultural loss as well. 

Some species are so fundamental to the 

cultural identity of a people through diverse 

roles in diet, materials, medicine, and/or 

spiritual practices that they may be thought 

of as cultural keystone species (Garibaldi 

and Turner 2004). The paper birch is one 

such example.

Paper birch bark has been indispensable 

for canoes, sacred fires, and as a substrate 

to grow fungi for medicines. It was used 

for food storage containers to retard 

spoilage, earning it the nickname of the 

“original TupperwareTM”. 

central to some of the great legends of the 

Anishinaabe or Ojibwe peoples (also known 

as Chippewa).

These rich cultural and economic uses and 

values are at risk if the paper birch tree 

disappears from the traditional territories 

of many U.S. tribes. Already, artisans in the 

Upper Midwest are concerned about what 

they believe is a diminishing supply of 

birch bark.

Until adaptive management strategies are 

developed and implemented, managers will 

have to rely on identifying suitable areas to 

serve as refugia where culturally significant 

numbers of the species can survive.

in response to actual or expected climatic 

stimuli or their effects, which moderates 

harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC WGII 2007). Adaptation in 

the biological context has a somewhat 

different meaning. In essence, biological 

adaptation refers both to the process 

and the products of natural selection 

that change the behavior, function, or 

structure of an organism that makes 

it better suited to its environment. The 

factors that control the rate of biological 

adaptation (e.g., population size, genetic 

variability, mutation rate, selection 

pressure, etc.) are rarely under full 

control of human action. Much as people 

might like, human intervention will not 

be able to make species adapt to climate 

change. But our actions can make such 

adaptation more or less likely.

It is an extremely durable material and is still 

used as a canvas on which traditional stories 

and images are etched, contributing to the 

survival of Native culture and providing a 

source of revenue. Indeed, birch bark is crucial 

for the economic health of skilled craftspeople 

who turn it into baskets and other items for 

sale to tourists and collectors. Paper birch is 

charlie rasmussen

About the Strategy
About the Strategy | 15

The science and practice of adaptation to 

climate change is an emerging discipline 

that focuses on evaluating and understanding the vulnerability and exposure 

that natural resources face due to climate 

change, and then preparing people and 

natural systems to cope with the impacts 

of climate change through adaptive 

management (Glick et al. 2011a). The 

ability of populations, species, or systems 

to adapt to a changing climate is often 

referred to as their adaptive capacity.

Because climate change is a long-term 

problem, both the level and timing of 

adaptation decisions is important. Both 

sets of decisions—level and timing—

will be made under uncertainty about 

the precise impacts of climate change. 

Timing decisions should recognize the 

following:

» Early action may be more cost effective 

in situations where long-lived infrastructure investments such as water 

and sanitation systems, bridges, and 

ports are being considered. In these 

cases, it is likely to be cheaper to make 

adjustments early, in the design phase 

of the project, rather than incur the 

cost and inconvenience of expensive 

retrofits.

» Early adaptation actions will be justified if they have immediate benefits, 

for example, by mitigating the effects 

of climate variability. In addition, 

adaptation actions that have ancillary 

benefits such as measures to preserve 

and strengthen the resilience of natural 

ecosystems might also be justified in 

the short-term.

Resistance Resilience Transformation

Three general types of adaptation responses illustrate points along a continuum of possible 

responses to climate change:

Ability of a system 

to remain essentially 

intact or unchanged as 

climate changes

Ability of a system to 

recover from a disturbance, 

returning to its 

original state.

The change in a system’s 

composition and/or 

function in response to 

changes in climate or 

other factors.

Application of the adaptation approaches 

described in this Strategy must carefully 

consider whether the desired outcome 

in any given situation should be to try 

to increase the resistance of a natural 

system to climate change, to attempt 

to make it more resilient in the face of 

climate change, or to assist its transformation into a new and different state—or 

to achieve some combination of all three 

outcomes (Hansen and Hoffman 2011).

Steve Hillebrand/USFWS

Uncertainties regarding the future of climate 

change are inherent and unavoidable but this 

should not stop us from taking action now.
16 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Case Study

Climate change on the Kenai Peninsula

Deciding what to do requires 

examining the institutions, 

laws, regulations, policies, 

and programs that our nation 

has developed to maintain 

our valuable resources and the 

many benefits they provide. 

It requires evaluating the 

management techniques that 

the conservation profession and 

other sectors (such as agriculture, 

energy, housing and urban 

development, transportation, and 

water resources) have developed 

over time, as well as considering 

new approaches where necessary

Perhaps most of all, it requires 

communicating our shared social 

values for wild living things and 

the ecosystems in which they live. 

Those social values can form the 

basis of cooperative intervention.

For a glimpse of the dramatic changes 

that a warming climate may bring to the 

entire nation, look no farther than Alaska’s 

seven million-acre Kenai Peninsula. Here, 

warmer temperatures have increased overwinter survival and boosted populations of 

spruce bark beetle, enabling the pest to 

devastate four million acres of forest on the 

peninsula and south-central Alaska over a 

15-year period (Berg et al. 2006). 

Meanwhile, the treeline has risen an 

unprecedented 150 feet (Dial et al. 2007); 

the area of wetlands has decreased by 

six to 11 percent per decade (Klein et al. 

2005, Berg et al. 2009, Klein et al. 2011); 

the Harding Icefield, the largest glacial 

complex in the United States, has shrunk 

by five percent in surface area and 60 feet 

in height (Rice 1987, Adageirsdottir et al. 

1998); and available water has declined 

55 percent (Berg et al. 2009). The fire 

regime is also changing: late summer 

canopy fires in spruce are being replaced 

by spring fires in bluejoint grasslands, and 

a 2005 wildfire in mountain hemlock was 

far different from any previous fire regime 

(Morton et al. 2006).

While these changes are already sobering, 

even greater changes lie ahead, according 

to projections from spatial modeling. As 

the climate continues to warm and dry, 

the western side of the peninsula could 

see an almost catastrophic loss of forest. 

Salmon populations—and the communities 

that depend on salmon—are projected to 

suffer because of higher stream temperatures (Mauger 2011) and increased glacial 

sediment (Edmundson et al. 2003). Overall, 

20 percent of species may vanish from the 

peninsula in the worst case scenario.

Is adapting to this rapidly changing climate 

possible? Some communities are already 

taking positive steps. For instance, state 

and local agencies are replanting beetlekilled areas that have become grasslands 

with white spruce and non-native lodgepole 

pine to reduce fire hazards for nearby cities 

and communities. 

The Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, Kenai 

Fjords National Park, Chugach National 

Forest, and the University of Alaska 

Anchorage are developing a climate vulnerability assessment in 2012 for the Kenai 

Peninsula and adjacent mainland. Plans are 

underway to develop interagency strategies 

for developing retrospective and prospective options (Magness et al. 2011) for 

adapting to climate change effects on the 

Kenai Peninsula. The geographic discreteness of the peninsula, the substantial 

lands under federal management, and the 

documentation of dramatic climate change 

impacts combine to make Kenai an ideal 

laboratory to explore the effectiveness of 

various adaptation measures.

About the Strategy Richey/USFWS
About the Strategy | 17

1.4 Purpose, Vision, 

and Guiding Principles

I

n 2009, the FWS launched a series of 

Conservation Leadership Forums to 

bring together leaders in the conservation community to discuss what a 

Strategy should include and how it 

should be developed. That effort, and 

others, produced a purpose, a vision, and 

guiding principles for developing this 

first national climate change adaptation 

strategy.

Inspire and enable natural 

resource professionals and 

other decision makers to 

take action to conserve the 

nation’s fish, wildlife, plants, 

and ecosystem functions, as 

well as the human uses and 

values these natural systems 

provide, in a changing 

climate.

Ecological systems will 

sustain healthy, diverse, 

and abundant populations 

of fish, wildlife, and plants. 

These systems will provide 

valuable cultural, economic, 

and environmental benefits 

in a world impacted by 

global climate change.

Purpose vision

Focus actions and investments 

on natural resources of the United 

States and its Territories. 

But also acknowledge the importance of 

international collaboration and informationsharing, particularly across our borders 

with Canada and Mexico. International 

cooperation is important to conservation 

of migratory resources over broad 

geographic ranges.

Identify critical scientific and 

management needs. 

These may include new research, information technology, training to expand technical 

skills, or new policies, programs, or 

regulations.

Identify opportunities to integrate 

climate adaptation and mitigation 

efforts.

Strategies to increase natural resource 

resilience while reducing GHG emissions 

may directly complement each other to 

advance current conservation efforts, as 

well as to achieve short- and long-term 

conservation goals.

Act now. 

Immediate planning and action are needed 

to better understand and address the 

impacts of climate change and to safeguard 

natural resources now and into the future.

An unprecedented commitment to collaboration and communication is required among federal, 

state, and tribal governments to effectively respond to climate impacts. There must also be 

active engagement with conservation organizations, industry groups, and private landowners. 

These considerations and the following principles guided the development of the Strategy:

guiding principles

Build a national framework for 

cooperative response. 

Provide a nation-wide framework for 

collective action that promotes collaboration across sectors and levels of 

government so they can effectively respond 

to climate impacts across multiple scales.

Foster communication and 

collaboration across government 

and non-government entities.

Create an environment that supports the 

development of cooperative approaches 

among government and non-government 

entities to adapting to climate change while 

respecting jurisdictional authority.

Engage the public. 

To ensure success and gain support for 

adaptation strategies, a high priority must 

be placed on public outreach, education, 

and engagement in adaptation planning 

and natural resource conservation.

Adopt a landscape/seascape based 

approach that integrates best available 

science and adaptive management.

Strategies for natural resource adaptation 

should employ: ecosystem-based management principles; species-habitat relationships; 

ecological systems and function; strengthened 

observation, monitoring, and data collection 

systems; model-based projections; vulnerability and risk assessment; and adaptive 

management.

Integrate strategies for natural 

resources adaptation with those of 

other sectors.

Adaptation planning in sectors including 

agriculture, energy, human health, and transportation may support and advance natural 

resource conservation in a changing climate.
18 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

monitoring of how species and natural 

systems are currently reacting to climate 

impacts and to adaptation actions will 

also be a critical part of reducing uncertainty and increasing the effectiveness 

of management responses. These tools 

and approaches can all inform scenario 

planning, which involves anticipating 

a reasonable range of future conditions 

and planning management activities 

around a limited set of likely future 

scenarios. In addition, other approaches 

aim to identify actions that are expected 

to succeed across a range of uncertain 

future conditions such as reducing nonclimate stressors or managing to preserve 

a diversity of species and habitats.

Another important component of 

managing risk and uncertainty is to 

better integrate existing scientific information into management and policy 

decisions. This requires that research 

results be accessible, understandable, 

and highly relevant to decision makers. 

In addition, decision support tools that 

help connect the best available science 

to day-to-day management decisions 

should continue to be developed, used, 

and improved, and research priorities should be linked to the needs of 

managers on the ground.

It is important to remember that natural 

resource management has always been 

faced with uncertainty about future 

conditions and the likely impacts of 

a particular action. The adaptation 

strategies and actions in this Strategy

are intended to help natural resource 

managers and other decision makers 

make proactive climate change-related 

decisions today, recognizing that new 

information will become available over 

time that can then be factored into 

future decisions.

1.5 Risk and 

Uncertainty

Climate change presents a new challenge to natural resource managers and 

other decision makers. The future will 

be different from the recent past, so the 

historical record cannot be the sole basis to 

guide conservation actions. More is being 

learned every year about how the climate 

will change, how those changes will affect 

species, ecosystems, and their functions 

and services, and how future management 

and policy choices will exacerbate or alleviate these impacts. This uncertainty is not 

a reason for inaction, but rather a reason 

for prudent action: using the best available 

information while striving to improve our 

understanding over time.

An important approach for dealing 

with risk and uncertainty is the iterative 

process of adaptive management. Adaptive 

management is a structured approach 

toward learning, planning, and adjustment where continual learning is built 

into the management process so that new 

information can be incorporated into decision-making over time without delaying 

needed actions. Carefully monitoring the 

actual outcomes of management actions 

allows for adjustments to future activities 

based on the success of the initial actions.

A variety of tools and approaches can help 

managers deal with risk and reduce uncertainty, thus, informing managers about 

how climate change may affect particular 

systems or regions. Improved climate 

modeling and downscaling can help 

build confidence in predictions of future 

climate, while climate change vulnerability 

assessments can help to identify which 

species or systems are likely to be most 

affected by climate changes. Well-designed 

What is...?

Risk Assessment

A risk assessment is the process of identifying 

the magnitude or consequences of an adverse 

event or impact occurring, as well as the 

probability that it will occur (Jones 2001).

Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability assessments are science-based 

activities (research, modeling, monitoring, etc.) 

that identify or evaluate the degree to which 

natural resources, infrastructure, or other 

values are likely to be affected by climate 

change.

Adaptive Management

Adaptive management involves defining explicit 

management goals while highlighting key 

uncertainties, carefully monitoring the effects 

of management actions, and then adjusting 

management activities to take the information 

learned into account (CCSP 2009b).

Deciding how best to address ecosystem 

changes due to climate change will require a 

cooperative effort by federal, state, and tribal 

government agencies.

About the Strategy

South Carolina Dept. of Natural Resources
IImpacts of Climate Change & mpacts of Climate Change & OOcean AAcidification cidification | 19

The United States has already experienced major 

changes in climate and ocean acidification and 

additional changes are expected over time. This 

chapter discusses current and projected impacts of 

increasing GHGs on fish, wildlife, and plant species, 

and then provides more detailed information on 

impacts within eight major types of ecosystems 

in the United States: forest, shrubland, grassland, 

desert, Arctic tundra, inland water, coastal, and 

marine ecosystems.

CH.2 Impacts of Climate Change

 & Ocean Acidification

2.1 GHG-induced 

Changes to the 

Climate and Ocean

The magnitude and pace of climate changes will depend on the rate of 

GHG emissions and the resulting atmospheric GHG levels (USGCRP 2009). 

These changes are already having 

significant impacts on the nation’s 

natural resources, the valuable services 

they provide, and the communities and 

economies that depend on them. These 

impacts may be driven by a combination 

of GHG and climate-related factors.

Increases in atmospheric and 

ocean CO2

» The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 

percent since the start of the industrial 

revolution (USGCRP 2009).

» The oceans absorb large amounts of 

CO2 from the atmosphere and as atmospheric CO2 has increased, so has the 

concentration of CO2 in the oceans. 

Between 1751 and 1994, surface ocean 

pH is estimated to have decreased 

from approximately 8.25 to 8.14, 

representing an increase of almost 

30 percent in “acidity” in the world’s 

oceans (IPCC AR4 2007). Ocean pH is 

projected to drop as much as another 

0.3 to 0.4 units by the end of the 

century (Orr et al. 2005, NRC 2010).

noaa
20 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

spring and summer (USGCRP 2009). In 

areas of high snowpack, runoff is beginning earlier in the spring, causing flows 

to be lower in the late summer. These 

changes in precipitation combined with 

increased temperatures are also expected 

to increase the instance and severity of 

drought, the conditions of which can 

lead to an increase in the frequency and 

intensity of fires. Climate change has 

already been linked to an increase in 

wildfire activity (Westerling et al. 2006, 

Littell et al. 2009). For example, during 

the extreme drought suffered by Texas 

in the summer of 2011, the state experienced unprecedented wildfires.

Changes in the frequency and 

magnitude of extreme events

» Extreme weather events such as heat 

waves, flooding, and regional droughts 

have become more frequent and 

intense during the past 40 to 50 years 

(USGCRP 2009).

» Rain falling in the heaviest downpours 

has increased approximately 20 percent 

in the past century (USGCRP 2009).

» Hurricanes have increased in strength 

(USGCRP 2009).

Changes in temperature can lead to a 

variety of ecologically important impacts, 

affecting our nation’s fish, wildlife, and 

plant species. For example, a recent analysis showed that many rivers and streams 

in the United States have warmed by 

approximately .2 °F–1.4 °F per decade 

over the past 50 to 100 years, and will 

continue to warm as air temperatures 

rise (Kaushal et al. 2010). The increasing 

magnitude and duration of high summer 

water temperatures will increase thermal 

stratification in rivers, lakes, and oceans, 

may cause depletion of oxygen for some 

periods and enhance the toxicity of 

contaminants, adversely impacting 

coldwater fish and other species 

(Noyes et al. 2009).

Changes in timing, form, and 

quantity of precipitation

» On average, precipitation in the 

United States has increased approximately five percent in the last 50 

years, with regional trend variability 

(USGCRP 2009).

» Models suggest northern (wet) areas 

of the United States will become wetter, 

while southern (dry) areas of the 

country will become drier 

(USGCRP 2009).

As mean global temperature increases, 

the capacity of the atmosphere to hold 

water vapor increases, resulting in 

alterations in precipitation patterns. 

The combination of changes in temperature and precipitation impacts water 

quantity, water quality, and hydrology 

on a variety of scales across ecosystems 

(USGCRP 2009). These changes vary 

regionally. The Northeast and Midwest 

are experiencing higher precipitation and 

runoff in the winter and spring, while the 

arid West is seeing less precipitation in 

» As a result of human activities, the 

level of CO2 in the atmosphere has 

been rapidly increasing. The present 

level of approximately 390 parts per 

million (Tans and Keeling 2011) is 

more than 30 percent above its highest 

level over at least the last 800,000 years 

(USGCRP 2009). In the absence of 

strong control measures, emissions 

projected for this century would result 

in a CO2 concentration approximately 

two to three times the current level 

(USGCRP 2009).

Changes in air and water 

temperatures

» Average air temperatures have 

increased more than 2 °F in the United 

States over the last 50 years (more in 

higher latitudes) and are projected to 

increase further (USGCRP 2009).

» Global ocean temperatures rose 0.4 °F 

between 1955 and 2008 (IPCC WGI 

2007).

» Arctic sea ice extent has fallen at a rate 

of three to four percent per decade 

over the last 30 years. Further sea ice 

loss, as well as reduced snowpack, 

earlier snow melt, and widespread 

thawing of permafrost, are projected 

(USGCRP 2009).

» Global sea level rose by roughly eight 

inches over the past century, and has 

risen twice as fast since 1993 as the 

rate observed over the past 100 years 

(IPCC WGI 2007). Local rates of sea 

level change, however, vary across 

different regions of the coastal United 

States. Changes in air and water 

temperatures affect sea level through 

thermal expansion of sea water and 

melting of glaciers, ice caps, and ice 

sheets.

Impacts

Climate change is predicted to increase the 

number and severity of storm events.

pam morris
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 21

what is...?

Non-Climate Stressors

In the context of climate adaptation, non-climate stressors refer to those current or future 

pressures impacting species and natural systems that do not stem from climate change, such as 

habitat loss and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution and contamination, changes in natural 

disturbance, disease, pathogens, and parasites, and over-exploitation.

2.2 Existing Stressors 

on Fish, Wildlife, and 

Plants

Fish, wildlife, plants, and ecosystem processes are threatened by a number 

of existing stressors. Many of these 

stressors will be exacerbated by climate 

change, while some may reduce a species’ 

ability to adapt to changing conditions. 

While the magnitude of climate change 

is expected to vary regionally, the overall 

vulnerability of some ecosystems may 

be primarily driven by the severity of 

these non-climate stressors. Resource 

managers must consider climate impacts 

in the context of multiple natural and 

human-induced changes that are already 

significantly affecting species, habitats, 

and ecosystem functions and services, 

including habitat loss, fragmentation 

and degradation, invasive species, overuse, pollution, and disease. Increasing 

our understanding of how climate 

change combines with multiple stressors to affect species, ecosystems, and 

ecological processes in complex and 

synergistic ways is needed to help inform 

and improve adaptation planning. After 

all, management will have to deal with 

the cumulative impacts of all stressors 

affecting a species if conservation efforts 

are to be successful.

According to the USGCRP (2009), 

over the past few decades, most of the 

United States has been experiencing 

more unusually hot days and nights, 

fewer unusually cold days and nights, 

and fewer frost days. Droughts are also 

becoming more severe in some regions. 

These types of extreme events can have 

major impacts on the distribution, abundance, and phenology of species, as well 

as on ecosystem structure and function. 

Extreme storm events also may result 

in intense and destructive riverine and 

coastal flooding. Over the next century, 

current research suggests a decrease in 

the total number of extratropical storm 

events but an increase in number of 

intense events (Lambert and Fyfe 2006, 

Bengtsson et al. 2009).

Changes in atmospheric and 

ocean circulation

» Warming of the atmosphere and ocean 

change the location and intensity of 

winds, which affect surface ocean 

circulation (Colling 2001, Blunden et 

al. 2011).

» Changes in ocean circulation patterns 

will change larval dispersal patterns 

(Cowen and Sponaugle 2009) and the 

geographic distributions of marine 

species (Block et al. 2011).

Changes in atmospheric and ocean 

circulation can affect both the marine 

environment as well as continental 

weather. By studying ocean sediment 

cores, scientists can learn about paleoclimatic conditions, which will provide 

insights about how dynamic and sensitive 

ocean circulation can be under different 

climatic conditions.

Habitat fragmentation, loss, 

and degradation

Habitat fragmentation, loss, and degradation have been pervasive problems 

for natural systems and are expected to 

continue. For example, grasslands, shrublands, and forests are being converted 

to agricultural uses. Desert systems are 

stressed by overgrazing and off-highway 

vehicles. Tundra and marine ecosystems 

are being affected by energy and mineral 

exploration and extraction, and coastal 

ecosystems are experiencing extensive development. Adding changes in 

climate to habitat fragmentation will put 

species with narrow geographic ranges 

and specific habitat requirements at even 

greater risk than they would otherwise 

be. Range reductions and population 

declines from synergistic impacts of 

climate and non-climate stressors may be 

severe enough to threaten some species 

with extinction over all or significant 

portions of their ranges. 

For example, the Rio Grande cutthroat 

trout, a candidate for listing under 

the Endangered Species Act (ESA), is 

primarily threatened by habitat loss, fragmentation, and impacts from non-native 

fish (FWS 2008). However, the habitat 

of the Rio Grande cutthroat is likely to 

further decrease in response to warmer 

water temperatures, while wildfire and 

drought impacts are likely to increase 

in response to climate change, further 

exacerbating the non-climate stressors 

on the species (FWS 2011).
22 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Case Study

Harmful algal blooms

Ecosystems and the biodiversity 

they embody constitute 

environmental capital on which 

human well-being heavily 

depends....It has become 

increasingly clear, however, 

that biodiversity and other 

important components of the 

environmental capital producing 

these services are being 

degraded by human activities, 

and that the degradation of this 

capital has already impaired 

some of the associated 

services, with significant adverse 

impacts on society.

— The President’s Council of Advisors on 

Science and Technology (PCAST) 2011. 

In the past three decades, harmful algal 

blooms (HABs) have become more frequent, 

more intense, and more widespread in 

freshwater, estuarine, and marine systems 

(Sellner et al. 2003). These blooms are 

taking a serious ecological and economic 

toll. Algal blooms may become harmful 

in multiple ways. For example, when the 

algae die and sink, bacteria consume 

them, using up oxygen in the deep water. 

This is a problem especially during calm 

periods, when water circulation and reoxygenation from the atmosphere are reduced. 

Increases in the nutrients that fuel these 

blooms have resulted in an increasing 

number of massive fish kills. Another type 

of harmful bloom happens when the dominant species of algae such as those of 

Cyanobacteria (commonly known as bluegreen algae) produce potent nerve and 

liver toxins that can kill fish, seabirds, sea 

turtles, and marine mammals. These toxins 

also sicken people and result in lost income 

from fishing and tourism. The toxic HABs do 

not even provide a useful food source for 

the invertebrate grazers that are the base 

of most aquatic food webs.

The cause of the increasing number of 

blooms? One of them is climate change 

(Moore et al. 2008, Hallegraeff 2010). 

Warmer temperatures are boosting the 

growth of harmful algae (Paerl and Huisman 

2008, Jöhnk et al. 2008). More floods 

and other extreme precipitation events are 

increasing the runoff of phosphorus and 

other nutrients from farms and other landscapes, fueling the algae’s growth. The 

problem is only expected to get worse. By 

the end of the 21st century, HABs in Puget 

Sound may begin up to two months earlier 

in the year and persist for one month later 

compared to today—increasing the chances 

that paralytic toxins will accumulate in 

Puget Sound shellfish (Moore et al. 2011). 

In addition, the ranges of many harmful 

algal species may expand, with serious 

consequences. For example, a painful foodborne illness known as ciguatera, caused 

by eating fish that have dined on a toxinproducing microalga, is already becoming 

much more common in many tropical areas. 

Global warming will increase the range of 

the microalga—and the threat of poisoning.

It is possible, however, to successfully 

combat some HAB problems. One key 

strategy is reducing the flow of nutrients 

into waterbodies. Proven steps include 

adding effectively sited buffer strips beside 

streams or restoring wetlands to absorb 

nutrient pollution before the nutrients can 

reach streams, rivers, lakes, and oceans. 

For example, USDA Natural Resources 

Conservation Services’ recent focus on 

improving soil health through the agriculture 

producers’ voluntary implementation of a 

variety of Soil Health Management Systems 

will serve to optimize the reduction of 

sediment and nutrients to waterbodies. 

In addition, better detection and warning 

systems can reduce the danger to people.

Warmer temperatures are 

boosting the growth and 

expanding the range of harmful 

algal blooms that kill wildlife, 

sicken people, and result in lost 

income from fishing and tourism.

noaa

Impacts
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 23

These invasions of new species are also 

getting a boost from land-use changes, 

the alteration of nutrient cycles, and 

climate change (Vitousek et al. 1996, 

Mooney and Hobbs 2000). Climate 

change can shift the range of invasive 

species, serve as the trigger by which 

non-native species do become invasive, and introduce and spread invasive 

species through severe weather events 

such as storms and floods. Species that 

have already colonized new areas in 

the United States may become more 

pervasive with changing conditions. 

For example, some invasive species like 

kudzu or cheatgrass may benefit when 

CO2 concentrations increase or historical fire regimes are disturbed (Dukes 

and Mooney 1999). In addition, poison 

ivy, another injurious species (though 

native), may not only increase with 

the increase in CO2, but is also likely 

to increase its production of urushiol, 

the oil in poison ivy that causes a rash 

for many people (Ziska et al. 2007). 

Early detection and a rapid coordinated 

response should be employed to contain 

invasive species (National Invasive 

Species Council 2008).

What is...?

Invasive Species

Invasive species are defined in Executive Order 

13112 as alien species whose introduction 

does or is likely to cause economic or 

environmental harm or harm to human 

health. These are typically non-indigenous or 

non-native species that adversely affect the 

habitats and ecosystems they invade. These 

effects can be economic, environmental, and/

or ecological. In addition, some native species 

can become destructive in certain ecological 

contexts such as with range expansions, while 

many non-native species do not negatively 

affect natural systems. Today, climate change 

may be redefining traditional concepts of native 

and non-native, as species move into new 

areas in response to changing conditions. 

Invasive species

Globalization and the increasing movement of people and goods around the 

world have enabled pests, pathogens, 

and other species to travel quickly over 

long distances and effectively occupy new 

areas. Historic invaders such as chestnut 

blight, Dutch elm disease, kudzu, and 

cheatgrass changed forever the character of our natural, rural, and urban 

landscapes. Climate change has already 

enabled range expansion of some invasive species such as hemlock woolly 

adelgid and will likely create welcoming 

conditions for new invaders. The buffelgrass invasion has forever changed the 

southwestern desert ecosystems by 

crowding out native plants and fueling 

frequent and devastating fires in areas 

where fires were once rare (Betancourt 

et al. 2010). Species such as zebra and 

quagga mussels, Asian carp, and kudzu 

already cause ecological and economic 

harm, such as competition for habitat, 

decreases in biodiversity, and predation of native species. In Guam, the 

brown tree snake (an invasive species 

introduced from the South Pacific after 

World War II) has caused the extirpation 

of most of the native forest vertebrate 

species, thousands of power outages, and 

widespread loss of domestic birds and 

pets (Fritts and Leasman-Tanner 2001, 

Vice et al. 2005).

townepost network

Zebra mussels are particularly invasive, 

disrupting ecosystems and clogging pipes 

and waterways.
24 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

mammals including sea otters (Miller 

et al. 2010). Factors other than climate 

change—such as changes in land use, 

vegetation, pollution, or increase in drugresistant strains—may also contribute to 

these range expansions. To improve our 

ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate 

the independent and interactive effects 

of multiple climate drivers on disease 

impacts (Harvell et al. 2002). Another key 

concern is the entry of pathogens to fish 

and wildlife via legal wildlife trade which 

is not well monitored. Smith et al. (2009) 

found that of the approximately 200 

million individual animals imported to 

the USA every year—many for the 

exotic pet trade, less than 14 percent 

are identified to the species level and 

more than half the individuals are only 

identified to the level of class.

Summary

Resource managers have worked long 

and hard to reduce the impact of these 

existing stressors in their management 

strategies. But as climate change will likely 

exacerbate these existing human-induced 

pressures on natural systems, one of the 

most successful strategies for increasing 

the resilience of fish, wildlife, and plants 

to a changing climate may be reducing 

the impact of these non-climate stressors 

(see Goal 7). For instance, warmer water 

temperatures have already caused many 

fish stocks off the northeast coast to shift 

northward and/or to deeper depths over a 

40-year period (Nye et al. 2009). As populations move to new locations, fishing 

effort adjustments may be necessary to 

ensure sustainable populations.

and toxicity can be the result of direct 

increases in the toxicity of some chemicals or increased sensitivity in the target 

species. Sensitivity can be increased 

due to general metabolic stress due to 

environmental changes or inhibition 

of physiological processes that govern 

detoxification.

Pathogens

Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine 

taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity making them sensitive 

to climate change. The effect of climate 

change may result in increasing pathogen 

development and survival rates, disease 

transmission, and host susceptibility. 

Although most host-parasite systems are 

predicted to experience more frequent 

or severe disease impacts under climate 

change, a subset of pathogens might 

decline with warming, releasing hosts 

from a source of population regulation. 

Detectable effects of climate change on 

disease include the geographic range 

expansion of the protistan parasite 

Perkinsus marinus, which causes Dermo 

disease in oysters, moving up the eastern 

seaboard as water temperatures have 

warmed (Ford 1996, Cook et al. 1998). 

Similarly, increased run-off from land has 

caused the spread of Sarcocystis neurona, 

a protozoan parasite in fecal waste from 

the invasive Virginia opossum, resulting 

in an increased infection rate in marine 

Over-use and destructive 

harvest practices

Over-use of America’s fish, wildlife, 

and plants has also had major impacts. 

Some species have been lost from certain 

areas, while others have gone completely 

extinct. For example, overfishing of 

commercial and recreational fish stocks 

in some regions has had negative impacts 

on fish stocks, fish assemblages, and the 

communities and economies that depend 

on them. Some fishing methods can 

also damage habitats important to those 

and other species, and bycatch can have 

significant impacts on non-target species 

(NMFS 2011). A variety of laws, regulations and management efforts exist to 

address these existing stressors, including 

the implementation of rebuilding plans 

for over-fished fish stocks (NMFS 2009a), 

the designation and protection of essential fish habitats (NMFS 2009b), and 

implementation of bycatch reduction 

programs (NMFS 2011).

Pollution

Climate change can alter temperature, 

pH, dilution rates, salinity, and other 

environmental conditions that in turn 

modify the availability of pollutants, the 

exposure and sensitivity of species to 

pollutants, transport patterns, and the 

uptake and toxicity of pollutants (Noyes 

et al. 2009). For example, increasingly 

humid conditions could result in the 

increased use of fungicides (increased 

quantity), whereas altered pH can change 

the availability of metals (increased 

biological availability). In cases where 

climate change affects transport patterns 

of environmental pollutants, pollutants 

may reach and accumulate in new places, 

exposing biota to risk in different habitats. Climate change effects on uptake 

Many pathogens are sensitive to changes 

in temperature, rainfall, and humidity, and 

climate change may result in increasing 

pathogen development and survival rates, 

disease transmission, and host susceptibility.

Kris Clark/Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe

Impacts
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 25

habitat type projected to decline, and 

reliant on climate-driven environmental 

cues that are likely to be altered under 

future climate change (Glick et al. 2011a). 

For these reasons, maintaining rare or 

already threatened or endangered species 

will present significant challenges in a 

changing climate, because many of these 

species have limited dispersal abilities 

and opportunities (CCSP 2008c).

In addition, migratory species are likely 

to be strongly affected by climate change, 

as animal migration is closely connected 

to climatic factors, and migratory species 

use multiple habitats, sites, and resources 

during their migrations. In extreme 

cases, species have abandoned migration 

altogether, while in other cases species 

are now migrating to new areas where 

they were previously only occasional 

vagrants (Foden et al. 2008). However, 

an ability to move and utilize multiple 

habitats and resources may make some 

migratory species relatively less vulnerable. Similarly, many generalist species 

such as white-tailed deer or feral hogs are 

likely to continue to thrive in a changing 

climate (Johnston and Schmitz 2003, 

Campbell and Long 2009). International 

collaboration and action is critical to 

increasing the resilience and adaptation 

of species that cross and depend on areas 

beyond U.S. borders (e.g., migratory 

birds, many marine fishes, mammals, sea 

turtles etc.).

Climate impacts will vary regionally and 

by ecosystem across the United States 

(see Figures 1 and 2). Understanding the 

regional variation of impacts and how 

species and ecosystems will respond is 

critical to developing successful adaptation strategies. Examples of current and 

projected climate change impacts on 

ecosystems are summarized in Table 1.

2.3 Climate Change 

Impacts on Fish, 

Wildlife and Plants

A changing climate can affect growth 

rates, alter patterns of food availability, 

and shift rates and patterns of decomposition and nutrient cycling. Changes 

can be driven by one or multiple climaterelated factors acting in concert or 

synergistically and can alter the distribution, abundance, phenology, physiology 

and behavior of species, and the diversity, 

structure, and function of ecosystems. 

One forecast that seems certain is that 

the more rapidly the climate changes, 

the higher the probability of substantial 

disruption and unexpected events within 

natural systems (Root and Schneider 

1993). The possibility of major surprises 

increases the need for adaptive management—where actions and approaches are 

flexible enough to be adjusted in the face 

of changing conditions.

Species and populations likely to have 

greater sensitivities to climate change 

include those with highly specialized 

habitat requirements, species already 

near temperature limits or having other 

narrow environmental tolerances, 

currently isolated, rare, or declining 

populations with poor dispersal abilities, 

and groups especially sensitive to pathogens (Foden et al. 2008). Species with 

these traits will be even more vulnerable if they have a small population, a 

low reproductive rate, long generation 

times, low genetic diversity, or are threatened by other factors. For example, the 

southwestern willow flycatcher may be 

considered especially vulnerable as it is 

currently endangered, especially sensitive to heat, primarily dependent on a 

In extreme cases, species have 

abandoned migration altogether, 

while in other cases species are 

now migrating to new areas 

where they were previously only 

occasional vagrants.

There is high variability in the vulnerability and 

responses of organisms to climate change, 

leading to winners (i.e., species positively 

impacted) and losers (i.e., species negatively 

impacted).

Dave Menke/usfWS
The following sections are intended 

to summarize current knowledge on 

impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, and plants within each of the major 

types of ecosystems within U.S. jurisdictions. Within each ecosystem type, a 

number of individual climate factors are 

listed and their direct effects on biota 

are discussed. However, many of the 

observed impacts are the result of climate 

factors acting in combination, as well 

as the combination of impacts across 

the ecosystem. While the individual 

effects are serious in themselves, it is the 

potential interactions of them—their 

cumulative effects through ecosystem 

processes that will likely lead to the 

greatest risk, both in potential magnitude of effects and in our uncertainty 

regarding the direction and magnitude of 

changes. For example, in marine systems, 

changes in community composition and 

food web structure resulting from the 

shifts in ecological niches for individual 

species are likely to be the largest influence of climate change (Harley et al. 

2006). Single-factor studies will likely 

under-predict the magnitude of effects 

(Fabry et al. 2008, Perry et al. 2010).

In addition, impacts are not confined to a 

single ecosystem, nor do ecosystems have 

fixed boundaries. While this Strategy 

describes climate change impacts to 

distinct ecosystems, in actuality, vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans 

and actions should take into account 

the connections between ecosystems. 

For example, the mixing zone between 

the land and sea is affected by climate 

impacts to freshwater, coastal, and 

marine ecosystems, and adaptation strategies will need to address these multiple 

ecosystems.

Case study

Range shifts in a changing climate

All across the country, species are 

already on the move in response to climate 

change. For example, the range of the 

Edith’s checkerspot butterfly has shifted 

northward almost 60 miles, with population 

extinctions seen along the southern range 

(Parmesan 2006). Species such as the 

red fox are increasingly able to move into 

previously inhospitable northern regions, 

which may lead to new competition and 

pressures on the Arctic fox (Killengreen et 

al. 2007). In Yosemite National Park, 

half of 28 species of small mammals 

(e.g., pinyon mouse, California vole, alpine 

chipmunk, and others) monitored showed 

substantial (500 meters on average) 

upward changes in elevation, consistent 

with an increase in minimum temperatures 

(Moritz et al. 2008).

Species are shifting in marine environments as well. In the Northeast United 

States, two-thirds of 36 examined fish 

stocks shifted northward and/or to deeper 

depths over a 40-year time period in 

response to consistently warmer waters 

(Nye et al. 2009). Similarly, in the Bering 

Sea, fish have moved northward as sea 

ice cover is reduced (Mueter and Litzow 

2008). In the California Current ecosystem, 

shifts in spatial distribution were more 

pronounced in species that were commercially exploited, and these species may be 

more vulnerable to climate variability (Hsieh 

et al. 2008).

These types of range shifts are already widespread—indeed, in one analysis up to 80 

percent of species analyzed were found to 

have moved consistent with climate change 

predictions (Parmesan and Yohe 2003).

Range shifts are not always negative: habitat 

loss in one area may be offset by an increase 

elsewhere such that if a species is able to 

disperse, it may face little long-term risk. 

However, it is clear that shifting distributions 

can lead to a number of new challenges for 

natural resource managers such as the arrival 

of new pests, the disruption of ecological 

communities and interspecies relationships, 

and the loss of particularly valued species 

from some areas. In addition, barriers to 

movement (such as development, altered 

ecosystems, or physical barriers like dams, 

fences, or roads) can keep species from 

reaching newly appropriate habitat. Other 

barriers are naturally occurring, such as those 

experienced by mountain-dwelling species that 

are limited in up-slope migration by the mountaintop, island species limited in migration by 

water depths, or aquatic and marine species 

limited by land barriers. Goal 1 of the Strategy 

describes the importance of providing linkages 

and corridors to facilitate connectivity while 

working to monitor and manage the movement 

of invasive species, pests, and pathogens.

Shelley Ellis/NWF 

Impacts
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 27

Figure 1: The distribution of the eight major 

ecosystems (forests, grasslands, shrublands, 

deserts, tundra, inland waters, coastal, and 

marine systems) described in the Strategy.

Cropland (including cropland, hayland, vineyards, 

and orchards) and improved pasture, and 

developed areas are also shown. 

Data source: Multi-Resolution Land 

Characterization (MRLC) Consortium National 

Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 (continental 

U.S, Hawaii), MRLC Consortium NLCD 2001 

(Alaska), analysis by USGS EROS data center; 

NOAA’s Coastal Geospatial Data Project and 

U.S. Maritime Zones, analysis by NOAA; USGS 

1;250,000 hydrologic units of the United States.

Figure 2: The distribution of the eight major

ecosystems (forests, grasslands, shrublands,

deserts, tundra, inland waters, coastal, and

marine systems) described in the Strategy for the 

U.S. territories in the Pacific. Cropland (including 

cropland, hayland, vineyards, and orchards) and 

improved pasture, and developed areas are also 

shown. See Figure 1 for data sources.
28 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Increased 

temperatures

U.S. average 

temperatures 

have increased 

more than 

2 °F in the 

last 50 

years, and 

are projected 

to increase 

further. Global 

ocean temperatures rose 

0.4 °F between 

1955 and 

2008.

» Increase in 

forest pest 

damage

» Changing fire 

patterns

» Longer growing 

season

» Higher evapotranspiration/

drought stress

» Increased fire 

frequency may 

favor grasses 

over shrubs

» Increased 

evapotranspiration/ 

intensified 

water stress

» Spread of nonnative species

» Spread of 

non-native 

plants and 

pests 

» Changing fire 

patterns

» Elevated 

water stress

» Mortality in 

heat-sensitive 

species

» Possible 

desert 

expansion

» Spread of 

non-native 

species

» Higher water 

stress

» Changing plant 

communities

» Longer growing 

season

» Invasion by 

new species

» Increased fire

» More freezethaw-freeze 

events

» Changes in subnivean temp. 

(underneath 

the snow pack)

» Expansion of 

warm-water 

species

» Depleted O2

levels

» Stress on 

coldwater 

species

» Increased 

disease/

parasite 

susceptibility

» More algal 

blooms

» Increase of 

salt marsh/

forested 

wetland 

vegetation

» Distribution 

shifts

» Phenology 

changes (e.g., 

phytoplankton 

blooms)

» Altered ocean 

currents and 

larval transport 

into/out of 

estuaries

» Coral mortality

» Distribution 

shifts

» Spread of 

disease and 

invasives

» Altered ocean 

currents and 

larval dispersal 

patterns

» New productivity patterns

» Increased 

stratification

» Lower 

dissolved O2

Major Changes Forests Shrublands Grasslands Deserts Tundra Inland Waters Coastal Marine

Increasing Levels of Greenhouse gases on U.S. Ecosystems & Species: Observed & projected ecological changes

temperature increases

Melting 

sea ice/

snowpack/

snow melt: 

Arctic sea ice 

extent has 

fallen 3–4% 

per decade 

over the last 

30 years, and 

further loss is 

predicted. In 

terrestrial habitats, reduced 

snowpack, 

earlier snow 

melt, and 

widespread 

glacier melt 

and permafrost 

thawing are 

predicted.

Rising sea 

levels: Sea 

level rose by 

roughly 8" over 

the past century, and in the 

last 15 years 

has risen twice 

as fast as the 

rate observed 

over the past 

100 years. 

Sea level will 

continue to rise 

more in the 

future.

Changes in 

circulation 

patterns: 

Warming of the 

atmosphere 

and ocean 

can change 

spatial and 

temporal patterns of water 

movement and 

stratification 

at a variety of 

scales.

» Longer frostfree periods

» Increase in 

freeze/thaw 

events can 

lead to icing/ 

covering of 

winter forage 

» Decreased survival of some 

insulationdependent 

pests

» Reduced 

snowpack 

leads to hydrological changes 

(timing and 

quantity)

» Reduced 

snowpack 

leads to hydrological changes 

(timing and 

quantity)

» Reduced 

snowpack 

leads to hydrological changes 

(timing and 

quantity)

» Thawing 

permafrost/

soil

» Hydrological 

changes

» Terrain 

instability 

» Vegetation 

shifts

» Longer snowfree season

» Contaminant 

releases

» Salt water 

intrusion

» Loss of coastal 

habitat to 

erosion

» Snowpack 

loss changes 

the temperature, amount, 

duration, distribution and 

timing of runoff

» Effects on 

coldwater and 

other species

» Loss of lake 

ice cover

» Inundation of 

freshwater 

areas

» Groundwater 

contamination

» Higher tidal/

storm surges

Altered 

productivity and 

distribution of 

fish and other 

species with 

changes in 

lake circulation 

patterns

» Loss of anchor 

ice and shoreline protection 

from storms/

waves

» Loss of ice 

habitat

» Salinity shifts

» Inundation 

of coastal 

marshes/low 

islands

» Higher tidal/ 

storm surges

» Geomorphology 

changes

» Loss of 

nesting habitat

» Beach erosion

Altered 

productivity, 

survival, and/or 

distribution 

of fish and 

other estuarine 

dependent 

species

» Loss of sea 

ice habitats 

and dependent 

species

» Changes in 

distribution 

and level of 

ocean 

» Changes in 

ocean carbon 

cycle

» Salinity shifts

» Loss of coral 

habitats

» Negative 

impacts on 

many early life 

stages

Altered productivity, survival, 

and/or distribution of fish and 

other species 

(particularly 

early life history stages)

USFWS/Steve Hillebrand

United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization/Danilo Cedrone
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 29

Changing 

precipitation 

patterns Precipitation has 

increased 

approximately 

5% in the last 

50 years. 

Predictions 

suggest historically wet areas 

will become 

wetter, and 

dry, drier.

» Longer fire 

season 

» Changes in 

fire regime 

» Both wetter 

and drier 

conditions 

projected

» Dry areas 

getting drier

» Changing fire 

regimes

» Invasion of nonnative grasses 

and pests

» Species range 

shifting

» Changes in 

fire regime

Loss of 

riparian habitat 

and movement 

corridors

» More icing/

rain-on-snow 

events affect 

animal 

movements 

and access 

to forage

» Increased fire

» Changing 

lake levels

» Changes in 

salinity, flow

» Changes 

in salinity, 

nutrient, and 

sediment flows

» Changing 

estuarine 

conditions 

may lead to 

hypoxia/anoxia

» New 

productivity 

patterns

» Changes 

in salinity, 

nutrient and 

sediment flows

» New 

productivity 

patterns

Major Changes Forests Shrublands Grasslands Deserts Tundra Inland Waters Coastal Marine

Increasing Levels of Greenhouse gases on U.S. Ecosystems & Species: Observed & projected ecological changes

precipitation increases

Drying conditions/drought

Extreme 

weather 

events, such 

as heat waves 

and regional 

droughts, have 

become more 

frequent and 

intense during 

the past 40 to 

50 years.

More extreme 

rain/weather 

events Rain 

falling in the 

heaviest 

downpours 

has increased 

approximately 

20% in the 

past century. 

Hurricanes 

have increased 

in strength. 

These trends 

are predicted 

to continue.

» Decreased 

forest productivity and 

increased 

tree mortality

» Increased fire

» Increased 

forest 

disturbance

» More young 

forest stands

» Loss of 

prairie pothole 

wetlands

» Loss of 

nesting habitat

» Increased fire

More variable 

soil water 

content

» Loss of 

prairie pothole 

wetlands

» Loss of 

nesting habitat

» Invasion of nonnative grasses

» Increased fire

Changing pest 

and disease 

epidemiology

» Increased 

water stress 

» Increased 

susceptibility 

to plant 

diseases

Higher losses of 

water through 

run-off 

» Moisture 

stressed 

vegetation

» Loss of 

wetlands

» Fish passage 

issues

More 

landslides/

slumps

» Loss of 

wetlands and 

intermittent 

streams

» Lower summer 

base flows

» Decreased 

lake levels

» Increased 

flooding

» Widening 

floodplains

» Altered habitat

» Spread of 

invasive 

species/

contaminants

» Changes 

in salinity, 

nutrient and 

sediment flows

» Shifting 

freshwater 

input to 

estuaries

» Higher waves 

and storm 

surges

» Loss of barrier 

islands

» Beach erosion

» New nutrient 

and sediment 

flows

» Salinity shifts;

» Increased 

physical 

disturbance

» Changes 

in salinity, 

nutrient and 

sediment flow

» New 

productivity 

patterns

» Higher waves 

and storm 

surges

» Changes in 

nutrient and 

sediment flows

» Impacts to 

early life 

stages

» Increased 

physical 

disturbance
30 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Increase in 

atmospheric 

CO2 The 

concentration 

of CO2 in the 

atmosphere 

has increased 

by roughly 

35% since the 

start of the 

industrial 

revolution.

» Increase forest 

productivity/

growth 

in some areas

» Insect pests 

may be 

affected

» Changes in 

species 

composition

» Spread of 

exotic species 

such as 

cheatgrass

» Impacts on 

insect pests 

» Changes in 

species 

composition

» Declines in 

forage quality 

from increased 

C:N ratios

» Insect pests 

may be 

affected 

» Changes in 

species 

composition

» Increased 

productivity of 

some plants

» Changes in 

communities 

» Increased fire 

risk

» Increased 

productivity 

of some plant 

species 

» Changes 

in plant 

community 

composition

» Increased 

growth of algae 

and other 

plants

» Changes in 

species 

composition 

and dominance

» Increased 

terrestrial, 

emergent, 

and 

submerged 

plant 

productivity

» Increased 

plant 

productivity

Major Changes Forests Shrublands Grasslands Deserts Tundra Inland Waters Coastal Marine

Increasing Levels of Greenhouse gases on U.S. Ecosystems & Species: Observed & projected ecological changes

carbon dioxide increases

Ocean 

acidification

The pH of 

seawater has 

decreased 

significantly 

since 1750, 

and is projected 

to drop much 

more by the 

end of the 

century as CO2

concentrations 

continue to 

increase.

» Declines in 

shellfish and 

other species

» Impacts on 

early life 

stages

» Harm to 

species 

(e.g., corals, 

shellfish)

» Impacts on 

early life 

stages

» Phenology 

changes

» Loss of the 

planktonic 

food base for 

critical life 

stages of commercial fishes

*This table is intended to provide examples of how 

climate change is currently affecting or is projected 

to affect U.S. ecosystems and the species they 

support, including documented impacts, modeled 

projections, and the best professional judgment of 

future impacts from Strategy contributors. It is not 

intended to be comprehensive, or to provide any 

ranking or prioritization. Climate change impacts 

to ecosystems are discussed in more detail in 

sections 2.3.1-2.3.8, and in online ecosystem 

specific background papers (see Appendix A).

**References: See IPCC AR4 2007, USGCRP 2009. 

See IPCC AR4 2007, USGCRP 2009, 

others in Chapter 2.

USFWS/Jim Maragos
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 31

2.3.1 Forest Ecosystems

Approximately 750 million acres of the 

United States is forest, both public and 

private (Heinz Center 2008), including 

deciduous, evergreen, or mixed forests. 

This includes embedded natural features 

such as streams, wetlands, meadows, and 

other small openings, as well as alpine 

landscapes where they occur above the 

treeline (see Figure 1). Changing climate 

can affect forest growth, mortality, 

reproduction, and eventually, forest 

productivity and ecosystem carbon 

storage (McNulty and Aber 2001, Butnor 

et al. 2003, Thomas et al. 2004).

Atmospheric CO2

National and regional scale forest process 

models suggest that in some areas, 

elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations may increase forest productivity 

by five to 30 percent (Finzi et al. 2007). 

Wetter future conditions in some 

areas may also enhance the uptake of 

carbon by ecosystems. However, other 

regions may experience greater than 20 

percent reduction in productivity due to 

increasing temperatures and aridity. In 

some areas of the United States, higher 

atmospheric CO2 may lead to greater 

forest water-use efficiency, while in other 

areas, higher evapotranspiration may 

result in decreased water flow (McNulty 

and Aber 2001). Species in today’s 

highly fragmented landscape already 

face unprecedented obstacles to expansion and migration (Thomas et al. 2004), 

which may magnify the climate change 

threat to forests.

Forests are at risk from multiple 

interacting stressors such as both 

warmer temperatures and pests.

Temperature Increases and Water 

Availability

In general, boreal type forest or taiga 

ecosystems are expected to expand 

northward or upward at the expense of 

Arctic and alpine tundra, and forests 

in the northwestern and southeastern 

United States might initially expand, 

although uncertainties remain (Iverson 

et al. 2008). Within temperate and 

boreal forests, increases in summer 

temperatures typically result in faster 

development and reproductive success 

What is...?

Forest Carbon Sequestration

According to the U.S. Forest Service, terrestrial 

carbon sequestration is the process by which 

atmospheric CO2 is taken up by trees, grasses, 

and other plants through photosynthesis 

and stored as carbon in biomass (trunks, 

branches, foliage, and roots) and soils (U.S. 

Forest Service 2009). Reducing CO2 emissions 

from deforestation and forest degradation 

(known internationally as REDD/REDD+) and 

restoring forested land cover in areas where it 

has been lost could play a major role in efforts 

to constrain the further increase of CO2 in the 

atmosphere. 

Although the destruction and conversion of 

tropical rainforests accounts for the majority of 

the buildup in greenhouse gasses (GHGs) from 

global land-use changes (IPCC AR4 2007), 

forests in North America are responsible 

for taking 140 to 400 million tons of carbon 

from the atmosphere and storing it in organic 

material each year. Because land-use changes 

and human population growth are expected 

to continue, the management of boreal and 

other North American forests for carbon 

sequestration is an important component in 

adapting and responding to climate change 

(Birdsey et al. 2007).

In the continental United States, land-use 

management can be utilized as a means of 

contributing to GHG sequestration efforts. For 

example, the National Wildlife Refuge System 

has conducted a number of projects restoring 

forested land cover in various refuges, and 

there is potential for many more such projects. 

In addition, no-till agriculture may reduce 

the emissions of CO2 from the breakdown of 

organic matter in soils, and broader utilization 

of this cropping technique in the American 

agricultural sector could make a substantial 

contribution to limiting emissions of CO2

(Paustian et al. 2000). Also, opportunities to 

protect U.S. tropical forests in Hawaii, Puerto 

Rico, and elsewhere as well as habitats such 

as coastal marshes may provide dual benefits 

of carbon sequestration and habitat protection.

of insects as well as changes in timing of 

development. As a result, these insects 

may interact with plant and wildlife 

species in different and sometimes problematic ways (Asante et al. 1991, Porter 

et al. 1991). Conversely, decreases in 

snow depth typically decrease overwinter 

survival of insects that live in the forest 

litter and rely on insulation by snow 

(Ayers and Lombardero 2000). Drier 

conditions in the southern United States 

and elsewhere could lead to increased 

fire severity and result in decreases in 

jane pellicciotto
32 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

in check by directly killing the insects. Cold 

temperatures also kept the beetle from 

extending its range farther north and to higher 

elevations (Amman 1974).

Warming temperatures over the last few 

decades, however, has enabled more beetles 

to survive the winter and to move to higher 

elevations and northward to regions like 

British Columbia. They have rapidly colonized 

areas that were previously climatically unsuitable (Carroll et al. 2003). Because these new 

areas had not previously experienced beetle 

outbreaks, they contained mature stands 

of trees, which are particularly susceptible. 

In addition, warmer summer temperatures 

have sped up the life cycle of the beetle, 

enabling it to complete more generations per 

year (Carroll et al. 2003). All these changes 

have resulted in unprecedented forest death. 

The current outbreak in British Columbia, 

for instance, is 10 times larger in area and 

severity than all previous recorded outbreaks 

(Kurz et al. 2008).

This massive loss of trees poses major challenges to forest and ecosystem managers. 

But there are steps that can be taken to 

reduce the negative impacts and prevent 

spreading. According to the U.S. Forest 

Service, the governments of British Columbia 

and Alberta, in an attempt to avoid further 

eastward expansion and potential invasion of 

the boreal jack pine forests, implemented an 

aggressive control program to suppress beetle 

populations east of the Rocky Mountains 

through felling and burning infested trees. 

Since its inception in 2004, the program has 

managed to keep beetle populations from 

expanding (RMRS 2009).

Case Study

Bark beetle outbreaks in warmer winters

ecosystem carbon stocks (Aber 2001, 

Westerling et al. 2006, Bond-Lamberty 

et al. 2007). Similarly, prolonged drought 

may lead to decreases in primary production and forest stand water use (Van 

Mantgem et al. 2009). Drought can also 

alter decomposition rates of forest floor 

organic materials, impacting fire regimes 

and nutrient cycles (Hanson and Weltzin 

2000). Changes in temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and relative humidity 

can also affect the dispersal and colonization success of other forest pathogens, 

which may impact forest ecosystem 

biodiversity among other important 

indicators of forest health (Brasier 1996, 

Lonsdale and Gibbs 1996, Chakraborty 

1997, Houston 1998).

From British Columbia to New

Mexico, forests are being devastated at 

unprecedented levels by an epidemic—

caused by a tiny insect called the mountain 

pine beetle. The beetles lay their eggs 

under the bark of trees, and in the process, 

infect the trees with fungus. When the 

eggs hatch, the combination of fungal 

infection and feeding by the beetle larvae 

kill the trees.

Bark beetles and pine trees have co-existed 

for eons. Regular outbreaks of beetles 

causing forest death are normal, but 

nothing like those now being seen. So 

why has the beetle suddenly become so 

destructive? In the past, sub-zero winter 

temperatures kept beetle populations 

Disturbances and Extreme Events

Disturbances such as wildfires, wind 

storms, and pest outbreaks are important 

to forests. Climate change is anticipated 

to alter disturbance frequency, intensity, duration, and timing, and may cause 

extreme changes in forest structure and 

processes (Dale et al. 2000, Running 

2008). For example, predictive models 

suggest that the seasonal fire severity 

rating will increase by 10 to 50 percent 

over most of North America, which has 

the potential to overshadow the direct 

influences of climate on species distribution and migration (Flannigan et 

al. 2000). Certain forest systems, such 

as ponderosa pine forests, may be less 

resilient to fire disturbance because of 

the laddering effect young trees, which 

developed during periods of infrequent 

fire occurrence, have on increasing the 

severity of fires (Climate Impacts Group 

2004). Climate-related changes in fire 

incidence may also increase associated 

mercury emissions from fires in boreal 

forests, presenting a growing threat 

to aquatic habitats and northern food 

chains (Turetsky et al. 2006). Friedli et 

al. (2009) suggest that a warming climate 

in boreal regions, which contain large 

carbon and mercury pools, will increasingly contribute to local and global 

mercury emissions due to more frequent 

and larger, more intense wildfires.

While projections of hurricane response 

to climate change are still uncertain, 

models agree on a possible increase in 

the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes 

(USGCRP 2009). If hurricane intensity 

increase, then more forests could be set 

back to earlier successional stages in areas 

susceptible to hurricanes (Lugo 2000).

terry tyson

Impacts
 | 33

forage available for grazing wildlife, as 

well as the livestock carrying capacity 

on working lands. Climate changes in 

shrubland areas can be complex: in areas 

where both a reduction in total annual 

rainfall and increased intensity of individual precipitation events are projected, 

wet areas are likely to become wetter 

while dry areas may become drier. More 

intense rainfall events without increased 

total precipitation can lead to lower 

and more variable soil water content, 

and reduce above-ground net primary 

production. However, some regions, 

such as the Great Basin, are projected to 

become both warmer and possibly wetter 

over the next few decades (Larrucea and 

Brussard 2008).

2.3.3 Grassland Ecosystems

Grasslands, including agricultural and 

grazing lands, cover about 285 million 

acres of the United States, and occur 

mostly between the upper Midwest to 

the Rocky Mountains and from Canada 

to the central Gulf Coast (CEC 1997, 

Heinz Center 2008). Grassland vegetation is very diverse, and includes many 

grass species mixed with a wide variety 

of wildflowers and other forbs. Grassland 

types include tallgrass, shortgrass, and 

mixed-grass systems. They also have 

embedded features such as the shallow, 

ephemeral wetlands known as prairie 

potholes and playas, which are openings in the prevailing grassland matrix 

that dot the Great Plains (see Figure 1). 

Grassland function is tied directly to 

temperature, precipitation and soil moisture; therefore, climate change is likely 

to lead to shifts in the structure, function, and composition of this system. 

Grasslands also store significant amounts 

of carbon, primarily in the soil (IPCC 

WGII 2007).

warmer and drier conditions may favor 

plants that utilize a different photosynthetic system (C4).

Temperature Increases

Since 1980, western U.S. winter temperatures have been consistently higher than 

the previous long-term averages, and 

average winter snow packs have declined 

(McCabe and Wolock 2009). Higher 

temperatures associated with climate 

change are likely to intensify water stress 

through increased potential evapotranspiration (Hughes 2003). The increase in 

temperature also further benefits invasive 

cheatgrass, which thrives in hot, open, 

fire-prone environments and crowds out 

native shrubland species, and may alter 

fire regimes. These types of changes in 

community composition may impact 

shrubland species like the greater sage 

grouse (Aldridge et al. 2008).

Water Availability

As a result of warmer temperatures, the 

onset of snow runoff in the Great Basin is 

currently 10 to 15 days earlier than it was 

50 years ago. This has resulted in significant impacts on the downstream use 

of the water (Ryan et al. 2008), though 

periods of higher than average precipitation have helped to offset declining 

snow packs (McCabe and Wolock 2009). 

Changes in snow packs can reduce the 

2.3.2 Shrubland Ecosystems

Shrublands of various types and sizes 

occur throughout the United States 

and total approximately 480 million 

acres (Heinz Center 2008) (see Figure 

1). Shrublands are landscapes dominated by woody shrub species, often 

mixed with grasses and forbs (nonwoody flowering plants). They provide 

habitat for numerous native plant 

and animal species. Sagebrush habitats alone support more than 400 plant 

species and 250 wildlife species (Idaho 

National Laboratory 2011), including 

100 birds and 70 mammals (Baker et 

al. 1976, McAdoo et al. 2003). Climate 

change will increase the risk to shrubland 

species because many already live near 

their physiological limits for water and 

temperature stress.

Atmospheric CO2

Increased CO2 can lead to changes in 

species distribution and community 

composition in the shrublands. For 

example, the spread of invasive cheatgrass has likely been favored by rising 

CO2 concentrations, which has been 

shown to benefit species, such as cheatgrass, that utilize a particular type of 

photosynthesis (known as C3 photosynthesis) (D’Antonio and Vitousek 1992, 

Larrucea and Brussard 2008). In contrast, 

With the amount of winter snow 

declining and temperatures 

rising, much of the United States’ 

shrublands are expected to 

experience drier conditions. That 

would increase the risk of fire 

and allow more rapid spread of 

invasive species like cheatgrass, 

crowding out native sagebrush.

ben davis
34 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

to continue to support historic levels 

of waterfowl and other native wetlanddependent species (Johnson et al. 2010). 

In addition to the significant ecological 

consequences, this could mean fewer 

ducks for waterfowl hunters across the 

United States.

Temperature changes are also likely to 

combine with other existing stressors 

to further increase the vulnerability of 

grasslands to pests, invasive species, 

and loss of native species. For example, 

populations of some non-native pests 

better adapted to a warmer climate are 

projected to increase, while native insects 

may be able to reproduce more quickly 

(Dukes and Mooney 1999).

2.3.4 Desert Ecosystems

Deserts are characterized by temperate 

climates having low annual rainfall, 

high evaporation, and large seasonal 

and diurnal temperature contrasts. 

The hot desert systems of the United 

States include the Mohave, Sonoran, 

and Chihuahuan Deserts (note that the 

so-called “cold deserts” including much 

of the Great Basin, are covered in this 

Strategy under Shrublands, see Figure 

1). This definition includes embedded 

features such as “sky islands,” wetlands, 

and mosaics of grasses and shrubs.

Desert systems harbor a high proportion of endemic plants, reptiles, and fish 

(Marshall et al. 2000). Desert ecosystems are particularly susceptible to 

climate change and climate variability 

because slight changes in temperature, 

precipitation regimes, or the frequency 

and magnitude of extreme events can 

substantially alter the distribution and 

composition of natural communities and 

services that arid lands provide (Archer 

and Predick 2008, Barrows et al. 2010).

Temperature Increases and Water 

Availability

In recent decades, average temperatures have increased throughout the 

northern Great Plains, with cold days 

occurring less often and hot days more 

often (DeGaetano and Allen 2002). 

Precipitation has increased overall 

(Lettenmaier et al. 2008). Future changes 

projected for the Great Plains include 

increasing average annual temperatures 

from approximately 1.5 to 6 oF by midcentury to 2.5 to 13 oF by the end of the 

century. More frequent extreme events 

such as heat waves, droughts, and heavy 

rains; and wetter conditions north of 

the Texas Panhandle are also projected 

(USGCRP 2009). However, the projected 

increases in precipitation are unlikely to 

be sufficient to offset overall decreases in 

soil moisture and water availability due to 

increased temperature and water utilization by plants as well as aquifer depletion 

(USGCRP 2009).

Climate change is expected to stress the 

sensitive prairie pothole habitat with 

increasing temperatures and changing 

rainfall patterns, which will alter rates 

of evaporation, recharge, and runoff in 

these pond systems (Matthews 2008). 

Recent modeling projects that the prairie 

pothole region of the Great Plains will 

become a much less resilient ecosystem, 

with western areas (mostly in Canada) 

likely becoming drier and eastern areas 

(mostly in the United States) having 

fewer functional wetlands. These changes 

are likely to reduce nesting habitat and 

limit this “duck factory” system’s ability 

Atmospheric CO2

Increased CO2 levels may affect the 

grassland system in multiple ways. For 

example, forage quality may decline due 

to increases in the carbon to nitrogen 

ratios of plant material, resulting in lower 

crude protein content (Milchunas et al. 

2005). In addition, plants that utilize 

C3-type photosynthesis (e.g., cheatgrass) 

stand to benefit from increased atmospheric CO2 (D’Antonio and Vitousek 

1992, Larrucea and Brussard 2008), while 

C4 species are more efficient at using 

water under hot, dry conditions and may 

respond favorably to increased water 

stress and lower soil moisture conditions. One CO2 enrichment experiment 

on shortgrass prairie showed a 20-fold 

increase in cover of a C3 shrub over C4 

grass cover (Morgan et al. 2007), while 

other reports show an advantage for 

C4 over C3 grasses in a CO2-enriched, 

warmer environment (Morgan et al. 

2011). The future distribution of these 

species will no doubt be influenced by 

the interaction of CO2, available moisture, and temperature, which may 

produce grassland communities with 

altered species compositions.

Grasslands include tallgrass prairie, cattle 

pastures, and ephemeral prairie pothole 

wetlands that function as the primary 

breeding grounds for ducks. The warmer, drier 

conditions expected from climate change will 

likely dry up wetlands, speed the invasion 

of non-native grasses and pests, bring more 

fires, and reduce the quality of forage for 

livestock and wildlife.

Chase Fountain
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 35

abundance of this charismatic species 

will likely decline as well. Similarly, 

the abundance and range of nonnative grasses will most likely increase in 

future climates, including the spread of 

cheatgrass and buffelgrass (Enquist and 

Gori 2008). These and other non-native 

species have significantly altered fire 

regimes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and extent of fires in the American 

Southwest (D’Antonio and Vitousek 

1992, Brooks and Pyke 2002, Heinz 

Center 2008).

(Archer and Predict 2008). Declining 

rainfall may eliminate wetlands, especially in marginally wet habitats such as 

vernal pools and in near-deserts. Varied 

rainfall and higher temperatures will 

also likely exacerbate existing stressors 

coming from recreation, residential, and 

commercial development and improper 

livestock grazing (Marshall et al. 2000).

Although precipitation-fed systems are 

most at risk, groundwater-fed systems in 

which aquifer recharge is largely driven 

by snowmelt may also be heavily affected 

(Burkett and Kusler 2000, Winter 2000). 

Reductions in water levels and increases 

in water temperatures will potentially lead to reduced water quality and 

decreased dissolved oxygen concentrations (Poff et al. 2002). Decreased water 

availability and expanded development 

will also impact desert riverine and 

riparian ecosystem function and disrupt 

movement corridors through the desert, 

which provide important habitat for arid 

land vertebrates and migratory birds 

(Archer and Predick 2008).

Many desert plants and animals already 

live near their physiological limits 

for water and temperature stress. For 

example, diurnal reptiles may be particularly sensitive due to their sedentary 

behavior and occurrence in very hot 

and dry areas (Barrows 2011). When 

compounded by persistent drought, 

climate change creates conditions that 

favor drought-tolerant species, leading 

to new species compositions of natural 

communities (CCSP 2009b). For 

example, Saguaro density and growth 

has declined with drought and reduced 

perennial shrub cover, and the range and 

Temperature Increases

Like most of the rest of the United 

States, the arid West and Southwest have 

been warming over the last century. 

Climate models project that these areas 

will continue to warm a further 3.6 to 

9.0 °F by 2040 to 2069 in the summer 

months (AZ CCAG 2006), while parts 

of southern Utah and Arizona have 

already seen greater than average 

increases in temperature (e.g., 3 to 

5 °F; USGCRP 2009). Most models 

project drying, increased aridity, and 

continued warming in the deserts, as 

well as increased severity and duration 

of droughts (USGCRP 2009). Higher 

temperatures and decreased soil moisture will likely reduce the stability of 

soil aggregates, making the surface 

more erodible (Archer and Predick 

2008). Other trends include widespread 

warming in winter and spring, decreased 

frequency of freezing temperatures, a 

longer freeze-free season, and increased 

minimum winter temperatures (Weiss 

and Overpeck 2005).

Water Availability

The southwest has experienced the 

smallest increase in precipitation in the 

last 100 years of any region in the coterminous United States (CCSP 2008c). 

Precipitation is projected to increase 

slightly in the eastern Chihuahuan 

Desert but decrease westward through 

the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts (Archer 

and Predick 2008). Overall water inputs 

are expected to decline due to the 

combined effects of reduced total precipitation, elevated water stress in plants at 

higher temperatures, and greater run-off 

losses associated with increased frequencies of high intensity convectional storms 

Temperatures in the arid West and Southwest 

have already climbed more than the U.S. 

average, and climate models project this 

trend to continue. Many cacti and other 

plant and animal species are already living 

near their physiological limits for water and 

temperature stress; many may not survive 

the coming changes in climate.

chase fountain 
36 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Disturbances and Extreme Events

An increased frequency of extreme 

weather events such as heat waves, 

droughts, and floods is projected (Archer 

and Predick 2008, IPCC 2011). For 

example, climate change is projected 

to increase the frequency and intensity 

of storm events in the Sonoran Desert 

(Davey et al. 2007). This will result 

in longer dry periods interrupted by 

high-intensity rainstorms, and has the 

paradoxical effect of increasing both 

droughts and floods. Erosive water forces 

will increase during high-intensity runoff 

events, and wind erosion will increase 

during intervening dry periods (Archer 

and Predick 2008).

2.3.5 Arctic Tundra Ecosystems

Arctic tundra is the ecological zone of 

the polar regions of the Earth, occurring 

mainly north of the Arctic Circle and 

north of the boreal forest zone. Alpine 

tundra is the ecological zone occurring 

above treeline even in the non-polar 

regions of the Earth (see Case Study on 

Alpine Tundra). This section focuses on 

the much more extensive Arctic tundra. 

Arctic tundra is characterized by an 

absence of trees, and occurs where tree 

growth is limited by low temperatures 

and short growing seasons. In the United 

States, Arctic tundra ecosystems represent 135 million acres on the North Slope 

and west coast of Alaska (Gallant et al. 

1995, Heinz Center 2008) (see Figure 

1). In most areas, soils are underlain by 

permanently frozen ground, known as 

permafrost, with a shallow thawed layer 

of soil that supports plant growth in the 

summer. Alaska’s tundra contains one of 

the largest blocks of sedge wetlands in the 

circumpolar Arctic (one quarter of global 

distribution) and provides breeding 

Case study

Cactus vulnerability

Cacti may be an iconic symbol of the arid 

American desert, but this symbol faces an 

increasingly uncertain future. Adapted to hot, 

dry environments such as those found in the 

southwestern deserts of the United States, 

most cacti species have very specific habitat 

requirements that also make them highly 

vulnerable to climate change and susceptible 

to small changes in their environment. Another 

key vulnerability is potential disruption of 

associated species interactions under climate 

change. For example, many cacti depend 

on other species for pollination, to provide 

habitat, or to protect them from herbivores. 

Changes in climate may result in mismatches 

in time or space between the cacti and other 

species upon which they depend.

While helping these species adapt will be 

challenging, the first key management step 

is figuring out which species are the most 

vulnerable and which might be able to survive 

or even thrive in a climate-changed world. 

One such assessment is already underway. 

NatureServe is seeking to develop Climate 

Vulnerability Indices for over a hundred 

cactus species found in the Sonoran, 

Mojave, and Chihuahuan deserts. This 

process includes assessing a species’ 

exposure and sensitivity to climate 

change through several factors, which are 

combined into a categorical vulnerability 

score. For example, in the Chihuahuan 

Desert, most cactus species assessed 

were either moderately (43 percent), highly 

(21 percent) or extremely (four percent) 

vulnerable to climate change (Hernández et 

al. 2010).

These types of vulnerability indices highlight 

the need for continued research on how 

climate change is likely to impact particular 

species and can help to establish priorities for adaptation activities. They are also 

tools to better inform management plans 

and conservation activities. In addition, 

vulnerability assessments may also help 

us identify those instances when viable 

adaptation measures simply may not be 

available.

jane pellicciotto

Impacts
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 37

freeze-thaw-freeze events are another 

by-product of warming winter temperatures in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. 

Historically, fires have been common in 

northwestern Alaska short shrub tundra 

and rare in northern Alaska tussock 

tundra, but a change to tall shrub tundra 

will likely result in an increase in fire 

frequency in both systems (Higuera et al. 

2008, 2011). A positive feedback relationship can result, as soils tend toward 

warmer and drier conditions after fire, 

promoting shrub growth and a more fireprone landscape (Racine et al. 2004).

grounds for millions of birds (more than 

100 species). Climate-driven changes in 

the tundra ecosystem are already being 

observed, and include early onset and 

increased length of growing season, 

melting of ground ice and frozen soils, 

increased encroachment of shrubs into 

tundra, and rapid erosion of shorelines 

in coastal areas (Hinzman et al. 2005, 

Richter-Menge and Overland 2010).

Atmospheric CO2

Fire is predicted to increase in the Arctic 

tundra if the climate continues to warm 

(Krawchuck et al. 2009). This has the 

potential to release carbon that has taken 

decades to store, in a matter of hours, 

increasing the amount of CO2 in the 

atmosphere (Hansen and Hoffman 2011, 

Mack et al. 2011). Melting permafrost 

and increased biological activity, coupled 

with saturated soil conditions will, 

and are, liberating increased amounts 

of carbon dioxide as well as methane 

and nitrous oxide to the atmosphere 

(O’Connor et al. 2010). In addition, the 

thawing of frozen organic material stored 

in tundra soils will release huge amounts 

of GHGs such as CO2 and methane into 

the atmosphere, contributing to climate 

change (Schaefer et al. 2011) and exacerbating climate change in a way that none 

of the global climate change models have 

taken into account.

Temperature Increases

Climate is changing worldwide, but 

the Arctic has already warmed at a rate 

almost twice the global average (ACIA 

2004). Spring snow melt has been occurring earlier as temperatures increase, 

leading to an earlier “green-up” of plants. 

A longer snow-free season also leads to 

local landscape warming that contributes to further climate change (Hinzman 

et al. 2005). Increased frequency of 

Analysis of satellite images has shown 

an increase in greenness in arctic Alaska 

over the last three decades indicating 

increased plant cover (Hinzman et al. 

2005). Other studies have documented 

recent advancement of trees and tall 

shrubs onto tundra, which is expected 

to continue (Lloyd et al. 2003, Tape et 

al. 2006). Similarly, Arctic specialist 

animals may face increased competition 

as less cold-tolerant species expand their 

ranges northward (Martin et al. 2009). 

For example, the arctic fox may suffer if 

competitors such as red foxes continue to 

increase in abundance.

The most dramatic climate change in the 

United States is occurring in Alaska. Already, 

permafrost is thawing, fires are increasing, 

and shrubs and trees are replacing sedge 

wetlands and grasses.

Steve Chase/usfws
38 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Water Availability

While precipitation is generally expected 

to increase in the future, models project 

a generally drier summer environment 

due to higher air temperatures, increased 

evaporation, and increased water use by 

plants (SNAP 2008). Changes in overall 

water balance strongly affect this habitat, 

where water remains frozen most of 

the year. Fish will be affected by higher 

water temperatures and by the changes 

in precipitation, soil moisture, soil and 

water chemistry, and drainage related to 

permafrost degradation (Martin et al. 

2009). Similarly, changes in water flow, 

water chemistry, turbidity, and temperature could cause physiological stress to 

species that cannot adapt to the new 

conditions. Some Arctic fish species 

migrate between marine and freshwaters, while others remain in freshwater 

throughout their life history, and involve 

movements from limited overwintering 

habitat to spawning and feeding habitat. 

These fish species will suffer if climatedriven stream changes prevent fish 

passage (Martin et al. 2009).

Thawing Permafrost

Increasing seasonal melting of ground 

ice and frozen soils (permafrost) is 

already measurably altering habitats 

and water distribution on the landscape, 

allowing new hydrologic patterns to 

form (Jorgenson et al. 2006). Because of 

warming in western Alaska, permafrost 

has become absent or thin and discontinuous, and more changes are expected 

such as lake drying (Yoshikawa and 

Hinzman 2003). Large mammals such 

as caribou and muskoxen suffer when 

access to forage is hampered by deep 

snow pack or a hard snow crust, caused 

by winter thaw-freeze-thaw or rainon-snow events which are expected to 

increase in a warmer climate (Martin 

Species adapted to life in the alpine

zone are often highly specialized for 

survival in cold temperatures, desiccating 

winds, and sparse soil and vegetation. In 

addition, alpine species are often endemic, 

restricted to only one area, because they 

have been isolated for thousands of years 

on “sky islands,” high peaks surrounded by 

warmer lowlands.

In alpine systems, snow is of particular importance as it influences plant 

phenology, growth, and species composition. With warmer temperatures, more 

precipitation falls as rain rather than snow 

and the timing of snowmelt advances 

earlier in the spring. While warming temperatures allow for a longer growing season, 

earlier green-up and loss of winter frost 

hardiness expose plants to more killing 

frosts in the spring. If the insulating blanket 

of snow is thinner and lasts less time, then 

there is less protection for alpine plants 

and animals in the winter and soil temperatures will be lower (Wipf et al. 2009). 

Species will have different responses to 

climate warming, but research suggests 

that greater temperatures and advanced 

snowmelt could harm alpine systems and 

the species that depend on them.

Case Study

Cimate change in alpine tundra systems

The American pika, which lives in high 

elevation areas, is an example of a species 

very vulnerable to climate change. This 

small rabbit-like creature has a warm fur 

coat and high body temperature to survive 

winters without hibernating, and dies if 

its internal temperature increases even a 

few degrees. It is estimated that local pika 

extinctions in the Great Basin have been 

five times as high in the last ten years as 

they were in the previous century, and the 

low-elevation boundary for this species is 

moving upslope by almost 150 meters per 

decade (Beever et al. 2011).

Temperatures in the alpine areas of the 

western United States have risen faster 

in the past quarter century than temperatures in the lowlands (Diaz and Eischeid 

2007). With warming temperatures, many 

plant and animal species have migrated 

uphill and northward (Parmesan and Yohe 

2003, Moritz et al. 2009). This presents 

a vivid image of plant and wildlife species 

migrating uphill until they reach the last 

summits and literally, run out of room. Even 

if their habitats do not disappear entirely, 

their species ranges will become smaller, 

because mountain peaks are smaller 

than mountain bases. Smaller ranges will 

decrease species’ genetic diversity and 

increase the risk of extinction.

The Köppen climate classification system 

maps climatic regions of the world, 

defining the alpine tundra climate by using 

the widely accepted critical threshold 

of an average temperature below 50 °F 

during the warmest month of the year. 

Diaz and Eischeid (2007) found that the 

amount of area in the western continental United States with an alpine tundra 

climate decreased by 73 percent during 

the previous two decades. This indicates that almost three quarters of the 

alpine tundra is out of equilibrium with the 

current climate, meaning it is a stressed 

ecosystem and little of it is likely to persist 

in its present form into the future.

Lynette Schimming
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 39

2.3.6 Inland Water Ecosystems

Inland waters range from ephemeral 

pools and intermittent streams to large 

regional and national features such as the 

Great Lakes, Mississippi River, Ogallala 

aquifer, and Everglades. Inland waters 

are non-tidal (starting at the head of 

tide) and include natural features such 

as wetlands, rivers, and lakes, as well 

as artificial and human-altered waterbodies such as ponds, reservoirs, canals, 

and ditches (Cole 1994, see Figure 1). 

These waters and associated riparian 

areas provide habitats to support a broad 

range of aquatic and terrestrial wildlife 

and vegetation, and provide ecological connectivity. Increasing global air 

temperatures and changing precipitation 

patterns are raising water temperatures 

and changing stream flows, affecting such 

ecosystem processes as productivity 

and decomposition and disrupting food 

web relationships.

Temperature Increases

A recent analysis showed that many 

rivers and streams in the United States 

have warmed by approximately .2 °F–

1.4 °F per decade over the past 50 to 100 

years, and will continue to warm as air 

temperatures rise (Kaushal et al. 2010). 

Water temperature affects the physiology, 

behavior, distribution, and survival of 

freshwater organisms, and even slight 

changes can have an impact (Elliott 

1994). Water temperature increases will 

allow the geographic area suitable for 

warm-water aquatic species to expand 

(Eaton et al. 1995, Eaton and Sheller 

1996, Pilgrim et al. 1998, Poff et al. 2002, 

Rieman et al. 2007, Rahel and Olden 

2008, Williams et al. 2009). The number 

of streams with temperatures suitable 

for warm-water fish and other freshwater organisms is projected to increase 

Sea Level Rise

Particularly in western Alaska, large 

areas of low-lying coastal plain bird 

habitat are predicted to disappear within 

this century, due to sea level rise and 

storm surges. This degradation may 

only be partially offset by increased 

sedimentation rates and tectonic rebound 

in some areas.

Additionally, the vast shallow wetlands 

of coastal plain tundra are sensitive to 

changes that could lead to drying. 

Any intrusion of saline water into 

formerly fresh systems results in rapid 

and dramatic change in vegetation 

(Martin et al. 2009).

Sea Ice Change

Summer sea ice has receded dramatically near northern and western Alaska 

in recent decades. The lack of near-shore 

ice in summer has made the shoreline more vulnerable to storm-induced 

erosion, reducing the value of these areas 

as wildlife habitat (Hinzman et al. 2005). 

In some areas, erosion rates have doubled 

since the middle of the last century 

(Mars and Houseknecht 2007). 

Decreasing sea ice is causing more polar 

bears to den and forage on land rather 

than on the sea ice. As a result, they can 

experience negative encounters with 

grizzly bears and humans.

et al. 2009). Changes in the quantity and 

quality of forage may also have profound 

effects on mammal populations, while 

wildlife pests and diseases are projected 

to increase their northern range limits 

(Martin et al. 2009). Warmer summers, 

a longer open water season, and delayed 

freeze-up would likely improve reproductive success for some bird species, though 

warmer summers could also cause drying 

of the wetland habitats and aquatic food 

sources that many birds rely upon. While 

birds time their breeding primarily to the 

solar calendar, increasing water temperature may cause aquatic insects to hatch 

earlier, resulting in a mismatch in timing.

Loss of permafrost and/or erosion may 

also affect the mobilization of pollutants from historical waste disposal sites, 

sewage lagoons, former military sites, 

mine tailings storage areas, and oil storage 

pits (Macdonald et al. 2003). Peatlands 

throughout the arctic and subarctic have 

accumulated carbon and trace elements 

such as mercury for thousands of years 

(Rydberg et al. 2010). Increased permafrost melt and erosive processes may 

enhance transport of mercury to Arctic 

lakes and coastal zones (Macdonald et 

al. 2003). Thawing of permafrost and 

the subsequent export of carbon and 

mercury to freshwater systems has been 

documented in Sweden and is thought to 

present a growing threat throughout the 

circumpolar region (Rydberg et al. 2010).

Increasing global air temperatures and changing precipitation 

patterns are raising water temperatures and changing stream 

flows, affecting such ecosystem processes as productivity and 

decomposition and disrupting food web relationships.
40 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Water Availability

Precipitation changes in the United 

States are projected to vary regionally. 

Higher precipitation and runoff in the 

winter and spring are expected in the 

Northeast and Midwest, and decreasing 

precipitation and runoff are expected 

in the arid West in spring and summer 

(USGCRP 2009). In areas of high snowpack, runoff is beginning earlier in the 

spring and stream flows are lower in the 

late summer. This affects flow-dependent species and estuarine systems and 

reduces habitat area and connectivity 

while increasing water temperature 

Case study

Water losses under climate change

by 31 percent across the United States 

(Mohseni et al. 2003). This would likely 

mean a concomitant decline of coldwater 

fisheries habitat.

These temperature increases will harm 

some inland water species. For example, 

one long-term study showed that a 1.2 °F 

increase in stream temperature caused 

coho salmon fry to emerge from the 

gravel six weeks earlier and move to the 

ocean two weeks earlier. This causes 

lower survival rates due to a mismatch 

in timing with peak prey abundance in 

the ocean (Holtby et al. 1990). Higher 

temperatures and more severe droughts 

also dry up streambeds and wetlands, 

harming species such as waterfowl 

(Johnson et al. 2005). Temperature 

increases could lead to changes in predation. For instance, it is projected that 

there would be a four to six percent 

increase in per capita consumption 

of salmonids by smallmouth bass and 

walleye for every 1.8 °F increase of 

annual river temperatures near the 

Bonneville Dam on the Columbia River 

(Rahel and Olden 2008). Warming 

temperatures also increase the susceptibility of organisms to disease, and 

may allow diseases to spread for longer 

periods and reproduce more quickly. For 

example, low flows and warmer waters 

contributed to a massive fish kill from 

a parasite infestation among spawning 

Chinook salmon in the Klamath River in 

September 2002 (CADFG 2008).

Many of the nation’s lakes, rivers, and 

streams are expected to warm, and lake 

levels are expected to change. Coldwater 

fish like trout and salmon will be adversely 

affected, while warmer water species will 

expand their range.

Between 2000 and 2010, the worst 

drought ever recorded since Euro-American 

settlement hit the Colorado River Basin. 

Water levels in Lake Mead dropped to 

record lows. The drought not only threatened the supply of water to cities like Las 

Vegas, it also harmed the ecosystems 

and riparian areas that support countless 

fish, plants, and animals and endangered 

species, like the humpback chub and the 

southwestern willow flycatcher.

Climate models project that the decadelong drought that gripped the region may 

become the normal climate instead of the 

rare exception, perhaps as soon as the 

end of the 21st century (Barnett and Pierce 

2009, Rajagopalan et al. 2009). The threat 

is being taken seriously by the Bureau of 

Reclamation, which has developed a plan 

that brings all stakeholders together in an 

attempt to balance human needs for water 

while providing sufficient flows and habitat 

for sustainable fish, wildlife, and plant 

populations.

Similar challenges must be faced around the 

nation. Long-term records at Anvil Lake, a 

groundwater-fed lake in northern Wisconsin, 

highlight the importance of water levels to fish, 

wildlife, and plant species. Over centuries, 

the lake’s water level has risen and fallen. 

However, Anvil Lake’s water level became 

progressively lower during each succeeding dry 

period, especially during the most recent dry 

period (WICCI 2011). In the future, any water 

loss through evapotranspiration associated 

with warmer temperatures would be expected 

to exacerbate any drought effect in similar 

aquatic systems.

These examples hold an important lesson for 

adaptation strategies. To help plants, wildlife, 

and ecosystems adapt to a changing climate, 

it is not enough to focus just on the natural 

world. Ensuring that ecosystems have enough 

water in regions expected to experience more 

droughts will require working with farmers, 

municipalities, energy industries, among 

others, to reduce the overall demand for this 

increasingly scarce resource.

and pollution levels. In contrast, higher 

flows and frequent storms can create 

wider floodplains, alter habitat, increase 

connectivity, displace riparian and 

bottom-dwelling species, or further 

distribute invasive species (Le Quesne et 

al. 2010). Changing flood and freshwater 

runoff patterns can impact critical life 

events such as the spawning and migration of salmon. Increased evaporation 

of seasonal wetlands and intermittent 

streams can also destabilize permanent 

waterbodies and cause a loss of habitat or 

a shift in species composition (Le Quesne 

et al. 2010).

USFWS/Matt Poole
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 41

In addition to their hydrologic importance, climate-related melting of glaciers 

can release stored persistent organic 

pollutants (e.g., pesticides and industrial 

chemicals like polychlorinated biphenyls 

(PCBs)) that were deposited during the 

period of heavy use in the mid-twentieth 

century (Blais et al. 2001, Bogdal et al. 

2009, Schmid et al. 2011) into freshwater 

systems, with subsequent uptake by 

biota (Bettinetti et al. 2008, Bizzotto 

et al. 2009).

Lake Stratification

Ice cover on freshwater systems is 

sensitive to climate changes (Magnuson 

2002). Higher air and water temperatures 

shorten lake ice cover seasons, increase 

evapotranspiration and thermal stratification, and increase winter productivity 

of lake systems. In shallow lakes these 

changes will increase winter oxygen 

levels and favor predator fish such as 

northern pike over a diverse community 

of fish species adapted to depleted 

oxygen levels (WICCI 2011). In contrast, 

deeper, less productive lakes in the 

northern United States could face 

lower oxygen levels in bottom waters 

during the summer as prolonged warm 

weather lengthens thermal stratification periods, isolating bottom waters 

from oxygen exchange. Depleted oxygen 

throughout the entire zone of bottom 

waters would harm coldwater fish such as 

lake trout and cisco.

Lake Level Change

Great Lakes water levels are expected 

to decrease significantly due to climatedriven changes in precipitation and 

evapotranspiration (USGCRP 2009, 

Angel and Kunkel 2010). Lower water 

levels will lead to desiccation of coastal 

habitats that do not (or cannot) migrate 

with retreating shoreline, likely stressing 

fish species that rely on wetlands as 

nursery habitat. Shorebirds may also 

experience a loss of nesting habitat 

as beaches may become overrun by 

opportunistic invasive species such 

as Phragmites. At the same time, new 

wetlands may be formed as a result of 

accretion in other areas. A decrease in 

the extent and duration of lake ice will 

also affect lake species and habitats. For 

example, lake ice enhances the overwinter survival of fish eggs and protects 

shoreline habitat from erosion during 

winter storms (ASCE 1999). Longer 

periods without lake ice cause greater 

evaporation and can increase lake-effect 

snows if air temperature is favorable for 

snow (Lofgren et al. 2002).

Disturbance and Extreme Events

As the climate warms, altered precipitation patterns may manifest as heavy 

storms that punctuate extended periods 

of hot, dry weather, yielding floods. 

Heavy storms will also cause increased 

run-off with associated erosion, sedimentation, and pollution. Increased tidal and 

storm surges will also affect freshwater 

ecosystems, especially with increases in 

hurricane and typhoon intensities (IPCC 

WGII 2007). Tidal and storm surges 

can cause oxygen depletion, changes in 

salinity, mud suffocation, and turbulence 

(Tabb and Jones 1962).

Climate change impacts such as warming 

water, decreased flows, and depleted oxygen 

levels are predicted to stress fish populations 

and impact recreational fishing.

Gerald Barnhart
42 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Temperature Increases

Average global land and sea surface 

temperatures are continually increasing 

with 2010 being the hottest on record 

(Bluden et al. 2011). Nearshore water 

temperatures are similarly increasing. 

Temperature changes affect coastal 

species phenology, including key events 

such as the spring phytoplankton bloom, 

plant germination and turtle nesting, 

and may also cause species range shifts 

(Harley et al. 2006, Hoegh-Guldburg and 

Bruno 2010). While coastal salt marshes 

and forested wetlands could experience 

increased growth due to warmer temperatures, they could also cause expansion of 

invasive species and disease pathogens.

2.3.7 Coastal Ecosystems

The Pacific, Atlantic, Arctic, Gulf of 

Mexico, and Great Lakes coastal systems, 

for the purposes of the Strategy, extend 

seaward to mean lower-low water and 

include all lands that drain directly into 

an estuary, ocean (including the entirety 

of off-shore islands), or Great Lake 

(see Figure 1). They include the waters 

and sub-tidal zones of estuaries, semienclosed bays, and lagoons, as well as 

emergent and wooded wetlands, open 

water and aquatic beds, and unconsolidated and rocky shorelines. Given that 

coastal ecosystems inherently exist at an 

ecological interface, these areas also may 

encompass portions of other ecosystems 

described in the Strategy. In addition 

to increases in air and water temperature, coastal ecosystems will experience 

climate impacts that include: sea and lake 

level changes; increases in storm surge; 

alterations in precipitation patterns and 

subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, pathogens, and sediment; changes 

in intensity of coastal storms; changes in 

water chemistry; and changes in sea ice.

What is...?

Sea Level Rise

As water warms, it expands, and the ocean 

surface rises. Sea level rise is highly variable 

regionally and local sea level rise is affected 

by multiple factors, including local geography 

and geology, such as rising or sinking land. 

Additional sea level rise is caused by the 

melting of inland glaciers and continental 

ice sheets, including those in Greenland 

and Antarctica, with recent studies placing 

the lower end of the range of sea level rise 

closer to 23 inches by the end of the century 

(Rahmstorf 2010).

In estuarine environments, increased 

water temperature will affect water 

column stratification and eutrophication; 

and could cause range shifts. Extreme 

changes may also stress organisms to

 the point of mortality. In addition, 

warmer temperatures will exacerbate 

low summer oxygen levels (such as 

those in mid-Atlantic estuaries and 

the Gulf of Mexico) due to increased 

oxygen demand and decreased oxygen 

solubility (Najjar et al. 2000). Similarly, 

increasing temperature can increase 

exposure to metals by increasing 

respiration rates of many ectotherms 

such as fish (Ficke et al. 2007).

In Alaska, rapid warming has 

led to severe shoreline erosion 

due to longer seasons without 

ice cover. These and other 

changes have made the coast 

far more vulnerable to wind 

and wave damage.

For high islands, such as those in Hawaii, 

warmer temperatures will increase stress 

on forest species, including birds, plants, 

and insects, which need cool, moist 

conditions to survive. In Alaska, rapid 

warming has led to severe shoreline 

erosion due to longer seasons without ice 

cover as well as to land subsidence due to 

permafrost melt and sea level rise. These 

changes have made the coast far more 

vulnerable to wind and wave damage 

(Larsen and Goldsmith 2007). The 

impacts of warmer temperatures on the 

Alaskan coast also are felt by the indigenous people who live there and depend 

on the natural resources of the coastal 

ecosystem.

Coastal ecosystems are expected to 

experience climate impacts including sea and 

lake level changes, increased storm surges, 

and changes in precipitation patterns and 

subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, 

and sediment. These changes could bring 

about the loss of the barrier islands, coral 

reefs, and coastal wetlands that help protect 

communities and industries from storms.

noaa

Impacts
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 43

events ranging from spring tides to 

tropical or extratropical storms, and will 

cause inland penetration of storm surge 

into areas not accustomed to inundation. These areas will likely experience 

flooding more often. Increased coastal 

flooding and inundation may result in 

release of contaminants from coastal 

soils, sediments, and infrastructure 

and increased exposure of fish, wildlife, 

and plants to these pollutants. While 

sea level changes have occurred repeatedly in the geologic past, changes of 

similar magnitude have not occurred 

since construction of modern human 

infrastructure along coastal areas, and 

the accelerated pace of sea level rise in 

the 20th and 21st centuries raises questions about how coastal ecosystems will 

respond (USGCRP 2009).

To preserve the current acreage of tidal 

wetlands, either wetlands need to keep 

pace with sea level rise or migrate inland 

to adjacent lands that are undeveloped. The success of wetland migration 

depends on the availability and slope of 

an upland corridor, the pace of the sea 

level rise, erosion rates, and the potential for wetland accretion (CCSP 2009a). 

Other important factors that affect 

wetland response to sea level rise are 

Reduced sea ice and increasing temperatures have led to breeding phenology 

shifts in kittiwakes over a 32-year period 

(Byrd et al. 2008). Changing ice conditions are threatening lifestyles and 

subsistence economics of indigenous 

peoples as well, such as by making trips 

to hunting grounds longer and more 

hazardous (Forbes et al. 2011). For 

example, residents of Alaska Native 

communities rely on sea ice to ease 

their travel to the hunting grounds for 

whales, ice seals, walrus and polar bears. 

Krupnik et al. (2010) identify numerous 

effects of climate change that challenge 

and threaten local adaptive strategies, 

including times and modes of travel for 

hunting, fishing and foraging.

Reduced sea ice is also likely to increase 

marine shipping and transport in the 

Arctic, enhance access to rich resource 

reserves including oil, gas, coal, and 

various minerals, and alter fishing 

patterns (ACIA 2005, AMSA 2009). 

Potential natural resource issues related 

to these activities may include changes 

in noise and disturbance, ship strikes of 

large marine mammals, marine debris 

incidence, pollution incidents, and/or 

introduction of invasive species 

(AMSA 2009).

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Inundation

Sea level rise is a key driver of coastal 

geomorphologic change. The immediate effects of sea level rise are the 

submergence and increased inundation 

of coastal land and increased salinity in 

estuaries and coastal rivers. Additional 

physical effects include increased erosion, 

changes in geomorphology, and saltwater intrusion in groundwater and 

into tidal freshwater marsh systems. Sea 

level rise also will exacerbate flooding 

Changes in Sea Ice

As a result of warming temperatures, 

Arctic sea ice has been decreasing in 

extent throughout the second half of the 

20th century and the early 21st century 

(Maslanik et al. 2007, Nghiem et al. 2007, 

Comiso and Nishio 2008, Alekseev et 

al. 2009, AMSA 2009). The summer of 

2007 saw a record low, with 2011 sea ice 

extent being second lowest compared 

with 2007 (Perovich 2011). Warming 

water temperatures and loss of sea ice are 

fundamentally changing the behavior, 

condition, survival, and interactions of 

Arctic marine mammals (Kovacs et al. 

2010, Wassmann et al. 2011).

As sea ice thins and retreats farther 

north, walrus, which rely on sea ice to 

rest on between foraging bouts, and polar 

bears, which need sea ice to hunt seals, 

will either be displaced from essential 

feeding areas or forced to expend additional energy swimming to land-based 

haul-outs (Callaway et al. 1999, Stirling 

et al. 1999, Laidre et al. 2008, Stirling 

and Parkinson 2009). Climate-related 

changes in timing of sea ice breakup have 

been linked to polar bear dietary changes 

in western Hudson Bay, Canada, with 

an inferred increase in consumption of 

open water (harp and harbor) seals relative to ice-associated seals (particularly 

bearded seals). Dietary changes were in 

turn related to an increase in contaminants such as PCBs, but a decrease in 

dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane, which 

is commonly known as DDT (McKinney 

et al. 2009).

In the Chukchi Sea, the loss of summer 

sea ice has reduced haul-out habitat for 

walrus, resulting in tens of thousands of 

walrus hauling out on land for the first 

time on record (Moore and Gill 2011). 

The increasingly long swim from sea ice to 

shore poses risks for walruses, especially 

to females and young who face further 

hardships onshore where they compete for 

food and can be trampled by larger males.
44 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

particularly well-suited to understanding 

and responding to climate change because 

future conditions, including results of 

habitat management experiments, are 

uncertain. Empirical data will be used 

to update and improve model forecasts. 

Model predictions will be used to develop 

sea level rise-related piping plover habitat 

conservation recommendations that can 

be implemented by land managers and 

inform regulatory authorities. Case studies 

incorporating explicit measures to preserve 

resilience of piping plover habitat to sea 

level rise into management plans for 

specific locations will demonstrate potential 

applications. Collaborators anticipate that 

model results may be readily translated to 

inform habitat management for other sensitive beach-strand species, such as least 

terns, American oystercatchers, Wilson’s 

plovers, and seabeach amaranth (a federally threatened plant species).

Case Study

Atlantic coast piping plover habitat conservation

salinity, sediment dynamics, nutrient 

input, and the habitats and species 

present. In populated coastal areas, 

wetland migration is often constrained 

by land development and shoreline stabilization measures. These conditions can 

result in the crowding of foraging and 

bank-nesting birds and the loss of crucial 

coastal habitat for certain species such 

as the diamondback terrapin, which 

requires both marsh and beach habitats (Shellenbarger Jones et al. 2009). 

Marsh islands are already being lost in 

the Mid-Atlantic due to sea level-related 

flooding and erosion, which threatens 

island nesting bird species (Shellenbarger 

Jones et al. 2009). In addition, the degradation and loss of tidal marshes affect 

estuarine habitat, production of commercially important fish and shellfish species, 

and flood attenuation, key ecosystem 

services for coastal communities.

Decisions regarding coastal management, such as stabilization, retreat, and 

beach nourishment will strongly influence 

the effects of sea level rise on the Atlantic 

Coast piping plover, a threatened beachnesting bird protected under the ESA. 

Piping plovers breed from Maine to North 

Carolina, and favor wide, gently sloping 

ocean beaches with blowouts, washovers, 

ephemeral pools, and sparse vegetation.

Federal and state agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and academic 

institutions are collaborating to couple a 

model of piping plover habitat evolution 

with a model of piping plover nest density 

and distribution. The habitat evolution 

model relates changes in physical habitat, 

such as topography, shoreline position, 

and vegetation, to changes in sea level 

and storminess (Gutierrez et al. 2011). A

Bayesian approach is being used and is 

Seawalls protect areas of human habitation 

from the action of storm surges and sea 

level rise. But they also inhibit animal 

movement and the exchange of sediment 

between land and sea. Current seawalls 

may be unable to cope with the projected 

increases in water levels.

usfws

Impacts

flickr/conespider
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 45

flow, turbidity, and eutrophication could 

also impact submerged aquatic vegetation due to reduced light penetration 

(Najjar et al. 2000), as well as organisms 

that rely on this habitat for food and 

shelter. These impacts of precipitation 

changes in estuaries will likely be exacerbated by non-climate stressors such as 

freshwater demand and extraction, eutrophication, and hypoxia.

while changes in peak flow timing could 

affect phenology and migration cues. 

Changes in the timing and amount 

of freshwater, nutrient, and sediment 

delivery will also impact estuarine 

productivity. For example, changes in 

flow regimes may affect the abundance 

and distribution of suspension feeders, 

such as mussels, clams, and oysters, 

which could in turn alter food web 

dynamics as well as water clarity (Wildish 

and Kristmanson 1997). Increases in 

Sea level rise may also result in the inland 

movement of seawater, shifting the tidal 

influence zone of streams and rivers 

upstream and permanently inundating 

downstream riparian/coastal portions 

with brackish water (Riggs and Ames 

2003). In the United States, these impacts 

are already apparent in freshwater 

swamps along the Louisiana and Florida 

coasts (IPCC 1997, Bowman et al. 2010, 

Migeot and Imbert 2011). In Florida, 

mangroves have advanced 0.93 miles 

inland over the last 50 years (RiveraMonroy et al. 2011), and another 10 to 

50 percent of the freshwater sawgrass 

prairie will be transformed to salt marsh 

or mangroves by 2100 (Kimball 2007). 

Salinity increases in formerly fresh or 

brackish surface waters and saltwater 

intrusion of shallow coastal groundwater 

aquifers will also result from sea level rise 

(USGS 2010). This may threaten systems 

such as tidal freshwater forested wetlands 

that support a variety of wildlife species 

and critical drinking water sources, especially in island ecosystems (Huppert et al. 

2009). Sea level rise also threatens small 

and low-lying islands with erosion or 

inundation (Baker et al. 2006, Church et 

al. 2006, USGCRP 2009), many of which 

support high concentrations of rare, 

threatened, and endemic species (Baker 

et al. 2006). As noted in the previous 

section (Inland Water Ecosystems) Great 

Lakes levels are expected to decrease, 

having different shoreline and habitat 

effects from ocean coasts that will

experience rising water levels.

Water Availability

Changes in precipitation will primarily 

impact coastal systems through changes 

in quantity, timing, intensity, and quality 

of freshwater flow into estuarine systems. 

The quantity of freshwater will affect 

salinity gradients and nutrient inputs, 

Case Study

Coastal habitat conservation on agricultural lands

Enhanced management of agricultural 

wetlands along our coasts represents an 

important opportunity to accommodate 

waterbirds displaced by wetland loss from 

sea-level rise.

For example, the wet coastal prairie along 

the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana is 

extremely important for wetland wildlife, as are farmland such as rice fields 

which also provide wet, early successional habitat. But rising sea levels are 

expected to inundate many of these lands. 

Conservation programs authorized under 

the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act 

of 2008 (known to many as the Farm Bill) 

such as the Wildlife Habitat Incentives 

Program (WHIP), the Environmental 

Quality Incentives Program (EQIP), and 

the Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) are 

able to compensate landowners willing to 

amend tillage and flooding practices to 

accommodate targeted waterbirds such as 

fall-migrating shorebirds, and wintering and 

spring-migrating waterfowl. These programs 

work with landowners to ensure critical wildlife habitat on private lands is not lost when 

species need it most.

Another approach is to proactively protect land 

that lies next to important coastal wetlands. 

In Pacific Northwest estuaries, for instance, 

Ducks Unlimited is leading an effort to protect 

farmland adjacent to tidal wetlands to allow for 

future marsh migration inland by purchasing 

easements (e.g., development rights) from a 

willing farmer. This may ensure that vital marsh 

habitat still exists if sea levels rise enough 

to submerge the existing coastal wetlands. 

Restoring wetlands on lands like farmlands 

that have not been filled and developed with 

buildings and hard infrastructure is a cost 

effective and feasible adaptation strategy.

Conservation easements meet the needs 

of interested owners of working farms, 

ranches, timberlands, sporting properties 

and recreational lands, who wish to 

protect valuable natural resources while 

retaining ownership of the property.

Keith Weller/usda
46 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

dissolved in lower pH environments 

(USGCRP 2009). Elevated CO2 concentrations are also expected to increase 

photosynthesis and productivity for 

many plants, such as mangroves and 

emergent and submerged vegetation. 

These increased growth rates may be 

reduced in areas that experience additional stress due to coastal pollution, 

which can also exacerbate the effects of 

ocean acidification (Adam 2009).

Elevated CO2 and Ocean Acidification

While not a climate change impact per 

se, ocean acidification is associated with 

increasing atmospheric CO2 and will 

cause changes to many key biological 

processes in coastal and marine systems. 

For example, increased acidity in estuaries will affect shellfish species that 

use carbonate minerals to build their 

shells, as these minerals are more readily 

Disturbances and Extreme Events

Increased storm wind strength due to 

elevated sea surface temperatures could 

lead to increases in wave height and 

storm surge (Scavia et al. 2002) and 

would be magnified by a higher sea level. 

The primary impacts associated with 

more intense storm systems include 

increased flooding and erosion. More 

intense storms, coupled with common 

manmade ecosystem alterations such 

as shoreline stabilization measures that 

impede or eliminate long-shore transport 

could lead certain barrier islands (and 

their habitats) to fragment and disappear instead of migrating and rebuilding. 

Impacts to coastal and estuarine beaches 

would affect biota such as: microscopic 

invertebrates that are critical to the 

food web; horseshoe crabs that rely on 

beaches for egg deposition; and migratory shorebirds that feed on the eggs, 

such as the red knot (Shellenbarger 

Jones et al. 2009). Shifts in the seasonal 

distribution of major storm events could 

also affect plants, wildlife, and fish. For 

example, an increase in the number or 

intensity of storms during the spring and 

early summer could substantially affect 

breeding success of coastal birds such 

as the piping plover. More infrequent 

but intense precipitation events can also 

lead to scouring of sediment and vegetation during peak flows, redistribution of 

sediment, resuspension of contaminated 

sediments, as well as increased pollutants from events such as combined sewer 

overflows.

case study

Coastal carbon sequestration

“Blue carbon” is a term used to 

describe the biological carbon sequestered and stored by marine and coastal 

organisms with a significant fraction being 

stored in coastal sediments by coastal 

seagrasses, tidal marshes, and mangroves. 

These coastal habitats can sequester 

and store carbon at high rates equivalent 

or higher than those of tropical forests 

(Hopkinson et al. 2012). 

When degraded or disturbed, these 

systems release carbon dioxide (CO2) 

into the atmosphere or ocean. Currently, 

carbon-rich coastal ecosystems are being 

degraded and destroyed at a global average 

of 2 percent annually, resulting in significant emissions of CO2 and the loss of 

carbon sequestration services, which 

contribute to climate change. Mangrove 

areas alone lost 20 percent of global 

cover between 1980 and 2005 (Giri 2011, 

Spalding et al. 2010). Carbon continues 

to be lost from the most organic soils in 

coastal areas. For instance, analysis of 

the agricultural soils of Sacramento’s San 

Joaquin Delta, a diked and drained former 

tidal wetland, documents emissions of 

CO2 at rates of 5 to 7.5 million tons of CO2

each year, or 1 percent of California’s total 

greenhouse gas emissions. Each year, an 

inch of organic soil evaporates from these 

drained wetlands, leading to releases of 

approximately 1 billion tons of CO2 over 

the past 150 years (Crooks et al. 2009, 

Deverel and Leighton 2010, Hatala et al. 

2012). 

Similar emissions are likely occurring from 

other converted wetlands along the East 

and Gulf Coasts of the United States.

Conservation and improved management 

of these systems brings climate change 

mitigation benefits in addition to increasing 

their resiliency and significant adaptation 

value to coastal species and communities 

(Crooks et al. 2011, McLeod et al. 2011). 

Developing a better understanding of blue 

carbon science and ecosystem management issues has implication for future 

climate adaptation strategies as well as 

coastal habitat conservation.

jane pellicciotto

Impacts
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 47

estuaries and other near-shore habitats as 

nursery areas (Hare and Able 2007). For 

example, increasing winter temperatures 

along coastal areas could increase the 

juvenile survivorship of these estuarine 

dependent species resulting in northward 

shifts in their distribution. Some warmer 

water marine fishes, such as the Atlantic 

croaker have already shifted their distributions poleward with warming ocean 

temperatures, and may also increase in 

growth and abundance in a changing 

climate (Nye et al. 2009, Hare et al. 2010).

Temperature Increases

Between 1955 and 2008, it is estimated 

that 84 percent of the heat gained by 

the planet has been stored in the world’s 

oceans, resulting in a global ocean 

temperatures rise of 0.4 °F, with much 

greater changes observed in some locations such as the Atlantic basin (Levitus 

et al. 2009, IPCC WGI 2007). The 

physical consequences of such warming 

include sea level rise, increased stratification of the water column, decreased 

oxygen levels and changes in ocean 

circulation. Warming sea temperatures 

also boost the energy available to initiate 

and intensify hurricanes and typhoons, 

and storm intensity is expected to 

increase as sea surface temperatures rise 

(IPCC WGI 2007).

Increasing ocean temperatures and the 

other associated changes in ocean 

conditions have a variety of impacts 

on fish, wildlife, and plants at multiple 

levels. These impacts range from changes 

in metabolic rates and energy budgets 

of individuals to changes in ecological processes such as productivity, 

species interactions, and even toxicity 

of compounds found in marine systems 

(Schiedek et al. 2007, Doney et al. 2012). 

Increasing air temperatures can also 

affect the growth and survivorship of 

early life history stages of some marine 

species whose larvae or juveniles use 

2.3.8 Marine Ecosystems

For the purposes of the Strategy, marine 

ecosystems extend from shore to 200 

miles seaward or the nearest international boundary (see Figure 1). The area 

seaward of 3 miles, generally referred 

to as the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone 

(EEZ), is the largest EEZ in the world 

spanning 3.4 million square nautical 

miles of ocean, an area 1.7 times the 

land area of the continental United 

States. The pelagic (open water) and 

benthic (bottom) habitats support species 

ranging from microscopic planktonic 

organisms that comprise the base of 

the marine food web through kelp and 

seagrass beds to a wide range of invertebrates and vertebrates. The two primary 

consequences of increased atmospheric 

CO2 in marine ecosystems are increasing 

ocean temperatures and ocean acidity 

(Doney et al. 2012). Increasing temperatures produce a variety of changes in 

marine ecosystems including rising 

sea level, increasing ocean stratification, decreased oxygen availability, 

extent of sea ice, and altered patterns 

of ocean circulation, storms, precipitation, and freshwater input (Doney et al. 

2012). These and other changes in ocean 

physical and chemical conditions impact 

ocean species (e.g., primary production, phenology, species distribution, 

species interactions, community composition) which in turn can impact human 

communities and economies that depend 

on marine ecosystems for jobs, food, and 

other services.

Increased ocean temperatures are already 

impacting marine ecosystems through 

changes in physical conditions, primary 

productivity, and species distributions.

Between 1955 and 2008, it is 

estimated that 84 percent of 

the heat gained by the planet 

has been stored in the world’s 

oceans.

USFWS/Jim Maragos
48 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

As discussed previously, species can 

respond to temperature changes by 

migrating poleward or toward deeper 

depths, reducing their climate niche 

within their existing range, evolving, or 

going extinct (Mueter and Litzow 2008, 

Cheung et al. 2009, Nye et al. 2009, 

Overholtz et al. 2011). These individual 

responses lead to new combinations of 

species that will interact in unpredictable 

ways. Between 2000 and 2100, warming 

in the North Pacific is projected to result 

in a 30 percent increase in the area of 

the subtropical biome, while areas of 

the equatorial upwelling and temperate 

biomes will decrease by 28 percent and 

34 percent, respectively (Polovina et al. 

2011).

Changes in Sea Ice

Sea ice plays an important role in 

reducing the ocean-atmosphere 

exchanges of heat, moisture, and 

other gases, with implications for the 

global climate. These complex interactions and feedback systems cause the 

Arctic Ocean to be extremely sensitive 

to warming, with consequent changes 

in atmospheric circulation, vegetation, and the carbon cycle, with impacts 

both within and beyond the Arctic. The 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 

Change (IPCC) (2007) projections 

suggest that the Arctic may be virtually ice-free in the summer by the late 

21st century. However, the previous 

projections are from coupled air-sea-ice 

climate models that tend to overestimate 

ice thickness, and hence some experts 

predict an ice-free Arctic in summer 

could occur as early as 2030 (Stroeve et 

al. 2008). Melting of sea ice and seabed 

mortality in recent warm years and are now 

found only at deeper depths (Weinberg 

2005). Similarly, in the Bering Sea, fish 

have moved northward as sea ice cover 

is reduced and the amount of cold water 

from melting sea ice is reduced (Mueter 

and Litzow 2008). In both cases, fishers 

have to travel further and set their nets to 

deeper depths, increasing the costs associated with fishing. In both ecosystems, fish 

stocks are shifting closer to the borders of 

neighboring Canada and Russia, requiring 

coordinated monitoring and assessment 

of key stocks. In the California Current 

ecosystem, shifts in spatial distribution 

were more pronounced in species that 

were commercially exploited, and these 

species may be more vulnerable to climate 

variability (Hsieh et al. 2008).

Combined, these studies stress the importance of tracking the impacts of climate 

change on marine species and incorporating that information into management 

plans and actions to prevent over-use, 

enhance recovery, and promote resilience 

of marine species and the communities 

and economies that depend on them in a 

changing climate.

Case Study

Shifting spatial distributions of U.S. fish stocks

The United States is fortunate to have 

programs in most regions that have been 

monitoring the distribution and abundance of 

commercial and recreational fish stocks (fish 

and macroinvertebrate species), protected 

species (e.g., marine mammals, sea turtles) 

and oceanic conditions (e.g., Integrated Ocean 

Observation System) consistently on an annual 

or interannual basis for some time. This 

information is not only essential for management of these valuable resources—it has 

also been critical to detecting shifts in spatial 

distribution of U.S. fish stocks and other 

species with changes in ocean conditions over 

time. Several studies using these data have 

found large distributional shifts in marine fish 

in the California Current Ecosystem (Hsieh 

et al. 2008), Bering Sea (Mueter and Litzow 

2008), and the Northeast United States 

(Nye et al. 2009).

In the Northeast, two-thirds of 36 examined 

fish stocks shifted northward and/or to deeper 

depths over a 40-year time period in response 

to consistently warm waters (Nye et al. 2009). 

The figure below shows the past and present 

spatial distribution of a commercially important fish species, red hake, as an example of 

shifts that have been observed in this area. 

Surf clams in this area also suffered higher 

0 0–2 2.01–4 4.01–6 6.01–8 8.01–10 10.01–12 12.01–14 >14

Legend (kg/tow)

1968–1972 1998–2002

Red hake distributions in the Gulf of Maine have been moving northward. As shown above, the 

highest biomass of these fish (shown in red) were located significantly further north in 1998–

2002 than they were from 1968–1972. Historically there were high densities of this species in 

waters off the coast of New Jersey and Long Island, but now there are fewer fish in these areas. 

Source: Nye et al. 2009
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 49

permafrost is also a consequence of 

atmospheric and ocean warming, and 

will produce associated physical, chemical, and biological changes, including 

increased stratification in the water 

column. Variation in the spatial extent of 

sea ice and timing of the spring retreat 

has strong effects on the productivity of 

the Bering Sea ecosystem. For example, 

the timing of the spring phytoplankton 

bloom is directly tied to the location of 

the sea ice edge over the Bering Sea shelf 

(Stabeno et al. 2001).

Changes in Circulation Patterns

Ongoing warming of the atmosphere 

and the ocean could cause major changes 

for key water masses and the processes 

they control. A change in the intensity and location of winds, such as the 

Westerlies moving northward in the 

Atlantic, will change surface ocean circulation. Currents such as the thermohaline 

circulation, which is driven by temperature and salinity gradients, can also be 

significantly affected by the warming 

climate. For instance, the circulation of 

deep ocean currents in the Atlantic and 

Pacific Oceans could slow. These large 

scale changes in circulation could have 

localized impacts such as increased ocean 

stratification and alterations to upwelling 

and coastal productivity, which in turn 

will change the availability of essential 

nutrients and oxygen to marine organisms throughout the water column. In 

addition, changes in ocean circulation 

patterns will change larval dispersal 

patterns (Cowen and Sponaugle 2009) 

and the geographic distributions of 

marine species (Block et al. 2011).

Case Study

Ocean acidification and West Coast oyster production

In 2007 and 2008, two of the three major 

West Coast oyster hatcheries discovered 

that their Pacific oyster larvae were dying. 

It did not happen all the time, so 

researchers set out to understand why. 

Was something wrong in the water pumped 

from the sea into the hatcheries? By 

testing the water, researchers discovered 

a telltale pattern. The larvae died only 

when upwelling off the coast brought deep, 

cold water to the surface—and into the 

hatcheries (Feely et al. 2008). This cold 

water was low in calcium carbonate, the 

basic material in oyster shells. Without 

enough dissolved calcium carbonate 

(in a form known as aragonite), the oyster 

larvae struggled to survive.

The finding pointed to the ultimate 

culprit—the same rising CO2 levels in the 

atmosphere that cause climate change. 

When CO2 concentrations increase in the 

air, the ocean absorbs more CO2. That 

increases the acidity of the water. Higher 

acidity (lower pH), in turn, means that 

the water cannot hold as much dissolved 

calcium carbonate. Compounding the 

issue is the fact that cold water, like that 

found on the bottom of the ocean, cannot 

dissolve as much calcium carbonate as 

warmer water can. Thus, the acidic cold 

water that is churned up during upwelling is 

especially harmful to the oyster larvae.

The hatcheries figured out ways around the 

problem. One of them measured concentrations of dissolved CO2 in the seawater and 

pumped in water only when it was above a 

pH level of 7.75 (typically late in the day after 

plankton had lowered water CO2 levels through 

photosynthesis). The other hatchery moved 

its intake from deep to shallow water.

But these steps do not solve the larger, 

far more significant problem—the increasing 

acidification of the oceans. Over the last six 

years, the difficulties faced by the hatcheries 

in rearing Pacific oyster larvae have been paralleled by poor supplies of naturally produced 

seed oysters in Willapa Bay, Washington—the 

most important oyster-producing bay on the 

West Coast. Acidification is already having a 

serious effect on the West Coast’s $80 million 

per year oyster industry, which employs thousands of people in economically depressed 

coastal communities (PCSGA 2010). If the 

acidification of the oceans is the cause, 

then the problem will just get worse. Not just 

oysters will be at risk, but also the basic food 

webs in the oceans because so many species 

use calcium carbonate to build shells and 

skeletons.

noaa
50 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Coral reefs are one of the most

productive ecosystems on Earth. At the 

heart of the coral reef’s success is a 

symbiotic relationship between coral and 

microscopic algae within the living coral. 

The coral provides the nutrients that the 

algae need to capture carbon dioxide 

(CO2) through photosynthesis. The algae, 

in turn, provide coral with the carbon they 

need to build their skeletons—and thus, 

the reef itself.

When sea temperature rises just a degree 

or more and stays that way for extended 

periods, the relationship between coral and 

algae begins to breakdown. The coral expel 

their algae, a process called bleaching 

(since without the colorful algae the coral 

is bone white). Over the past 20 years, 

periods of increased sea temperatures and 

coral bleaching events are becoming more 

frequent and widespread (Marshall and 

Schuttenberg 2006). Usually, healthy reefs 

are able to recover from bleaching events. 

However, the severity of these events is 

increasing as are other human-caused 

threats to coral reefs (e.g., over-fishing, 

pollution, and sedimentation). In 2005, up 

to 90 percent of shallow-water corals in the 

British Virgin Islands bleached in response 

to increased water temperatures (Wilkinson 

and Souter 2008). Frequent bleaching has 

profound effects on corals and can ultimately lead to mortality.

Case Study

Rising ocean temperatures and coral reef bleaching

Elevated CO2 Levels and Ocean 

Acidification

Increased ocean acidification associated with increasing atmospheric CO2

concentrations will directly and indirectly impact physiological and biological 

processes of a wide variety of marine 

organisms such as growth, development, and reproduction (Le Quesne 

and Pinnegar 2011). Ocean acidification 

decreases the concentration of dissolved 

carbonate that is available for uptake 

by calcifying organisms. A more acidic 

environment can reduce the calcification rate of many shell-forming marine 

organisms including oysters, clams, sea 

urchins, shallow water corals, deep sea 

corals, and calcareous plankton. Even 

the most optimistic predictions of future 

atmospheric CO2 concentrations (such 

as stabilization at 450 parts per million) 

could cause coral reefs to no longer be 

sustainable (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007, 

Veron et al. 2009), bivalve reefs to slow or 

even stop developing, and large areas of 

polar waters to become corrosive to shells 

of some key marine species. 

There also are expected to be major 

effects on phytoplankton and 

zooplankton that form the base of 

the marine food chain. On the organismal level, a moderate increase in CO2

facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of some phytoplankton groups. It 

also enhances the release of dissolved 

carbohydrates, most notably during 

the decline of nutrient-limited phytoplankton blooms. On the ecosystem level, 

these responses influence phytoplankton 

species composition and succession, 

favoring algal species which predominantly rely on CO2 utilization (Riebesell 

2004). These effects will then have 

cascading impacts on productivity and 

diversity throughout the ocean food web.

Bleaching isn’t the only threat to coral. Rapid 

increases in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, and thus, ocean acidification, may be the 

final insult to these ecosystems. The absorption of atmospheric CO2 by the world’s oceans 

contributes to chemical reactions which ultimately reduce the amount of carbonate making 

it unavailable to coral to build their skeletons 

(Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007). Water quality 

improvements, particularly controlling nutrient 

inputs, can bolster reef resilience to bleaching 

(Wooldridge and Done 2009) and implementation of existing laws may help mitigate ocean 

acidification effects on nearshore habitats 

(Kelly et al. 2011).

There are a variety of efforts underway to try 

to protect coral reefs by making them more 

resilient to climate change (Marshall and 

Schuttenberg 2006). The Nature Conservancy 

has started a Reef Resilience program, 

working in the Florida Keys in partnership with 

the State of Florida, the National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration, and Australia’s 

Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, 

to understand the non-climate factors that 

adversely affect coral reefs such as damage 

from charter and private vessels and improper 

erosion control. The hope is that by reducing 

these non-climate stressors, the coral will be 

better able to resist being bleached when sea 

temperatures increase. A related approach, 

being studied by scientists at the University of 

Miami, Australia Institute of Marine Science, 

and elsewhere, is actively inoculating corals 

with algal symbionts that are resistant to 

higher water temperatures.

Rising sea temperatures and ocean 

acidification are threatening the 

whole coral reef ecosystem.

Impacts

David Burdick, Courtesy of NOAA
 | 51

The products and services 

that natural resources provide 

support millions of jobs and 

billions of dollars in economic 

activity.

Agriculture is a fundamental component within the grassland system matrix, 

and is also sensitive to climate changes. 

The same stressors that affect grasslands 

affect agriculture, and can decrease crop 

yields (Ziska and George 2004). Research 

suggests that crop plant responses to 

increasing CO2 are varied, and it is therefore difficult to determine overall direct 

impacts of CO2 (Taub 2010). However, 

there are numerous climate change 

impacts on temperature extremes and 

precipitation patterns that will likely have 

a substantial impact on vegetation and 

crop production. 

Mapped boundaries of plant hardiness 

zones will change, and the list of agricultural and horticultural crops suited 

to particular areas will also change. 

The benefits from increased CO2 and a 

longer growing season may not be sufficient to offset losses from decreasing soil 

moisture and water availability due to 

rising temperatures and aquifer depletion. Decreasing agricultural yields per 

acre could also increase pressure for the 

conversion of more acres of native grasslands to agriculture (USGCRP 2009). The 

decrease in agricultural soil moisture and 

water availability due to rising temperatures and aquifer depletion makes soil 

conservation vital. Climate change may 

cause reduction in precipitation and, in 

turn, induce soil moisture limitations in 

pasturelands (CCSP 2008d).

The products and services that natural 

resources provide support millions of 

jobs and billions of dollars in economic 

activity (DOI and DOC 2006, NMFS 

2010, DOI 2011). As a result, the 

impacts from climate change on species 

and ecosystems are expected to have 

significant implications for America’s 

communities and economies. In some 

cases, the implications could be positive 

and in other cases negative. The timing 

of any of these changes is uncertain. 

For example, changes in distribution, productivity, and health of forests 

from increased drought, fires or other 

climate-related factors (e.g., spread of 

pests or invasive species) will have direct 

consequences for both global carbon 

sequestration and the forest products 

industry, as well as fire risk and sedimentation of water sources, and will also 

influence other uses of forested ecosystems such as recreation and non-timber 

products. Changes in productivity of 

ocean ecosystems could have major 

impacts on fish stocks, fisheries and the 

communities and economies that depend 

on them world-wide.

2.4 Impacts on 

Ecosystem Services

As noted in Section 1.3.3, species and 

ecosystems provide a wide range of 

important products and services to the 

nation, including jobs, food, clean water, 

protection from storms, recreation, and 

cultural heritage. These natural resources 

and ecological systems are a significant 

source of economic activity and wealth. 

Climate change is likely to affect the 

spectrum of ecosystems services. In some 

cases or for some periods, these changes 

may be positive as with expanded 

growing zones for some agricultural 

crops in the northern latitudes, or with 

the expansion of warm-water fisheries. 

On balance, however, the scientific 

community has warned that an increase 

in global average temperature above 

4 0F risks dangerous interference with 

the climate system and many adverse 

impacts on natural systems and the 

wealth they generate (IPCC AR4 2007). 

Recall that the current range of estimates 

for global average temperature increase 

by 2100 is 2.0 to 11.5 0F (USGCRP 2009).

Any benefits to agriculture from 

increased CO2 and a longer growing 

season may not be sufficient to offset 

losses from decreasing soil moisture 

and water availability due to rising 

temperatures and aquifer depletion.

jane pellicciotto
52 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

undertake the costly task of updating 

infrastructure to effectively harvest the 

changing mixture of fish stocks. Fishery 

agencies will also have to update regulatory measures to conform to these 

new stock boundaries. Ocean acidification could have significant impacts on 

aquaculture industries and fisheries by 

affecting growth and survival of shellfish 

and many other species. Melting sea ice 

is also changing transportation routes, 

oil and gas exploration and extraction, 

fishing, and tourism in the Arctic, which 

in turn could impact the fish, wildlife, and plants in this region through 

a variety of mechanisms, including 

increased noise associated with increases 

in shipping (AMSA 2009).

The effects that climate change will have 

on marine aquaculture are not fully 

understood, but it is likely that there will 

be both positive and negative effects. 

For example, warmer temperatures may 

increase growth of some species, but 

decrease that of others, emphasizing the 

need for vulnerability assessments and 

adaptation planning that can reduce 

negative impacts and promote positive 

effects where possible (De Silva and Soto 

2009). Climate change will directly affect 

aquaculture’s choice of species, location, technology, and production costs 

(Hall et al. 2011). Direct impacts may 

include rising ocean levels, more frequent 

extreme weather events, changes in rain 

patterns, and distribution of diseases and 

parasites. The more subtle effects are even 

harder to gauge; for example, the effects 

that climate change may have on ocean 

currents, inshore salinities, and water 

mixing patterns; which may in turn affect 

aquatic productivity, fishmeal supply and 

global trade, or the incidence of harmful 

algal blooms (FAO 2010).

Some benefits provided by well-functioning inland water and coastal 

ecosystems will also change or be lost 

due to climate change impacts, especially 

when compounded with other stressors 

such as land-use change and population growth. For example, there may 

be fewer salmon for commercial and 

recreational harvest, as well as for traditional ceremonial and cultural practices 

of indigenous peoples. Coastal marshes 

and mangroves provide clean water, 

groundwater recharge, and act as natural 

buffers against storms, absorbing floodwaters and providing erosion control 

with vegetation that stabilizes shorelines and absorbs wave energy. If those 

habitats are degraded and/or destroyed, 

then adjacent inland communities 

will have less protection from sea level 

rise, and may experience more direct 

storm energy and flooding (NC NERR 

2007). Tidal marshes and associated 

submerged aquatic plant beds are important spawning, nursery, and shelter areas 

for fish and shellfish (e.g., commercially 

important species like blue crab), serve 

as nesting habitat for birds, and provide 

invertebrate food for shorebirds. At least 

50 percent of commercially-valuable 

fish and shellfish depend upon estuaries 

and nearshore coastal waters in at least 

one life history stage (Lellis-Dibble et al. 

2008); others reported estuarine dependency for approximately 85 percent of 

commercially-valuable fish and shellfish 

(NRC 1997).

In marine systems, large scale changes 

to biogeochemical processes, ocean 

currents, and the increased acidification of ocean waters are expected to have 

profound impacts on marine ecosystems 

including coral reef communities and 

their associated fisheries and tourism 

industries (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007, 

Doney et al. 2012). Shifts of fish stocks 

to higher latitudes and deeper depths 

may force fishers to travel farther and 

spend more time in search of fish, or to 

Case Study

A species that may thrive in a changing climate

One species which may benefit from 

marine climate change and a conservative 

management regime is the Atlantic croaker, 

which inhabits the coastal Atlantic of the 

United States and supports a commercial 

and recreational fishery worth approximately 

$9 million per year. Annual fish surveys along 

the East Coast have recorded croaker populations expanding northward since 1975. Recent 

research suggests that its range expansion is 

due to a combination of increasing sea surface 

temperature and a constant fishing pressure or catch level by anglers. Spawning 

occurs in the coastal waters during the 

late summer, fall, and winter. Between 

30-60 days after spawning, larvae enter 

the estuaries of the Mid-Atlantic region to 

overwinter and grow to juveniles. Juvenile 

survival during the winter is determined by 

water temperature with cold water adversely 

affecting recruitment to the fishery. 

Using sea surface temperature forecasts 

from an ensemble of global climate models, 

researchers have projected increased 

recruitment of juveniles in estuaries leading 

to more adult fish (Hare et al. 2010). 

If fishing pressure remains relatively 

low, the croaker fishery is expected to 

shift northward 60-250 miles as sea 

surface temperatures increase and new 

estaurine habitat becomes available. The 

study also suggests that under some future 

climate conditions, croaker populations 

could grow to levels sufficient to support 

increased fisheries. 

Virginia Marine Resources Commission
Climate Adaptation Goals, Strategies & Actions | 53

seven goals to help fish, wildlife, plants, and 

ecosystems cope with the impacts of climate change 

were developed collectively by diverse teams of 

federal, state, and tribal technical and management 

experts, based on existing research and understanding 

regarding the needs of fish, wildlife, and plants in the 

face of climate change.

CH.3 Climate Adaptation Goals,

Strategies & Actions

The goals represent tools within 

the conservation toolbox.

Their strategies and actions

should be taken or initiated over 

the next five to ten years.

Each goal has helpful checklists

to chart milestones.

3.1 How It Works

It is important to emphasize that all seven 

of these goals describe types of conservation activities that management agencies 

have traditionally undertaken, some for 

much of their history. In this sense, these 

goals represent tools within the conservation toolbox. What this Strategy seeks 

to do is assist the management community to better understand the application 

of these tools that may be most effective 

in a period of climate change. In other 

words, this Strategy seeks to integrate 

with and build upon existing management programs. These goals are intended 

to be implemented with full recognition of the existing rights and obligations 

of those who implement and will be 

impacted by the activities. For example, 

United States treaties and federal court 

decisions require consultation with 

tribal governments to ensure activities 

do not inadvertently lead to a diminishment of natural resources located on 

Indian lands, or treaty-protected natural 

resources, or in a diminishment of tribal 

access to those resources. And the resilience and adaptation of species that 

depend on areas outside U.S. borders 

will require continued collaboration and 

action with international partners.

Each goal identifies a set of initial strategies and actions that should be taken or 

initiated over the next five to ten years. 

Actions under various individual goals 

are interrelated and interdependent. To 

the extent possible, actions within goals 

are listed in sequential order; but goals 

are not. It is more useful to think of 

goals as sectors within which the appropriate actions are progressing in logical 

sequence. The “Actions” were compiled 

from Technical Team submissions 

usfws
54 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

determined to be broadly applicable to 

the eight major U.S. ecosystem types 

considered in this document. In addition, 

examples of more detailed “Ecosystemspecific Actions” were also developed 

by the Technical Teams, in order to 

illustrate how these approaches could 

be carried out in particular ecosystems. 

A set of these specific actions most 

relevant to each ecosystem is available 

in the eight ecosystem-specific background papers referenced in Appendix A 

and posted online at www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov.

A short-term progress check list 

is offered under each goal. These 

checklists are composed of 

items that can serve as useful milestones 

of progress toward the achievement of 

the relevant goal. Not every action has 

a corresponding checklist item and not 

every item on the checklist is a specific 

action under that goal. Each of the 

items in these lists could be achieved or 

initiated over the next five to ten years 

by pursuing the strategies and actions 

under each goal. Accomplishing these 

items will show real progress in implementing the Strategy. While adaptation 

planning for biological resources is still 

a new endeavor, it is important to 

recognize that work on all of these goals 

is already underway. This Strategy

attempts to build on the excellent work 

of pioneering state governments, federal 

agencies, tribes, conservation partners, 

private landholders, and others who 

have been leading the way on adaptation. 

Many of the Case Studies found 

throughout the Strategy highlight some 

of these ongoing efforts.

Goals-at-a-Glance

Goal 2: 

Goal 1: Conserve habitat to support healthy 

fish, wildlife, and plant populations 

and ecosystem functions in a 

changing climate. 

Sustaining a diversity of healthy populations 

over time requires conserving a sufficient 

variety and amount of habitat and building a 

well-connected network of conservation areas 

to allow the movement of species in response 

to climate change.

Manage species and habitats to protect ecosystem functions and provide 

sustainable cultural, subsistence, 

recreational, and commercial use in 

a changing climate.

Incorporating climate change information into 

fish, wildlife, and plant management efforts 

is essential to safeguarding these valuable 

natural resources.

Goal 3: Enhance capacity for effective 

management in a changing climate.

Climate change adaptation requires new ways 

of assessing information, new management 

tools and professional skills, increased collaboration across jurisdictions, and a review of 

laws, regulations, and policies.

Support adaptive management in a 

changing climate through integrated 

observation and monitoring and use 

of decision support tools.

Goal 4: Coordinated observation, information management, and decision support systems can help 

management strategies to be adaptive and 

adjust to changing conditions.

Goal 5: Increase knowledge and information 

on impacts and responses of fish, 

wildlife, and plants to a changing 

climate.

Research must be targeted to address key 

knowledge gaps and needs, and findings must 

be rapidly incorporated into decision support 

tools available to natural resource managers 

and other decision makers.

Goal 6: Increase awareness and motivate 

action to safeguard fish, wildlife, 

and plants in a changing climate.

Climate change adaptation efforts will be most 

successful if they have broad popular support 

and if key groups and people (such as private 

landowners) are motivated to take action.

Goal 7: Reduce non-climate stressors to help 

fish, wildlife, plants, and ecosystems 

adapt to a changing climate.

Reducing existing threats such as habitat degradation and fragmentation, invasive species, 

pollution, and over-use can help fish, wildlife, plants, and ecosystems better cope with 

the additional stresses caused by a changing 

climate.

The management challenge will not be to 

keep current conservation areas as they 

are, but rather ensure there is a network of 

habitat conservation areas that maximizes 

the chances that the majority of species will 

have sufficient habitat somewhere.

Goals, Strategies & Actions

roger smith
Climate Adaptation Goals, Strategies & Actions | 55

Studies of past periods of climate change and their effects on 

species and ecosystems help us understand what may happen in 

the future. The major lesson from the recent fossil record of the 

transition from the last Ice Age to the current inter-glacial period is 

that when climate changes, each species responds in its own way 

(Hunter et al. 1988). 

Goal 1

This Strategy attempts to 

build on the excellent work of 

pioneering state governments, 

federal agencies, tribes, 

conservation partners, private 

landholders, and others who 

have been leading the way on 

adaptation.

Conserve habitat to support healthy 

fish, wildlife, and plant populations and 

ecosystem functions in a changing climate.

areas may lose the specific communities or species they were established to 

protect. For example, Joshua trees are 

projected to be virtually eliminated from 

most of the southern portions of its 

current range by the end of the century, 

including Joshua Tree National Park 

(Cole et al. 2011). Conservation areas will 

likely also gain new species, including 

in some cases, species equally in need of 

conservation. The management challenge 

will not be to keep current conservation areas as they are, but rather ensure 

there is a network of habitat conservation 

areas that maximizes the chances that 

the majority of species will have sufficient habitat somewhere. This will be a 

major challenge, both in knowing what 

will constitute “habitat” for any particular species in the future, and in dealing 

with biosphere scale dynamics that have 

now been unleashed that may be beyond 

management’s ability to redress (e.g., 

ocean acidification).

Another lesson of past periods of climate 

change is that not all species will survive. 

Managers will need to come to terms 

with the need to make hard choices about 

the investment of limited resources and 

the likelihood of success.

Many of our nation’s imperiled species 

(both those currently listed either as 

Threatened or Endangered as well as 

many other species that may eventually be considered for listing) do not 

occur in existing conservation areas. 

Indeed, the major threat to many species 

on the U.S. Endangered Species List 

is the loss of habitat caused when the 

habitat they depend on is converted to a 

different use. Climate change will make 

the problem worse—and will make the 

need for new conservation areas more 

urgent. The most robust approach to 

Species found living together in one climate may not live together in 

another, and vice versa. Thus, the natural 

community types recognized today, 

such as spruce-fir forests of the North, 

hemlock-beech forests of the Northeast, 

or tallgrass prairie of the Midwest, will 

not simply move northward or upslope. 

Instead, the species composition of these 

communities will change.

This observation has many implications 

for our conservation efforts in the current 

period of climate change. Many existing 

conservation areas, such as Sequoia 

National Park or the National Elk Refuge, 

were established largely to protect 

specific natural communities or species. 

As the climate continues to change and 

each species responds individually, these 

larry kruckenberg
56 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

it more likely that native biodiversity 

will be conserved. Some species’ habitat 

under climate change may be well outside 

their current or historic range. Healthy 

and biologically diverse ecosystems are 

likely to better withstand or adjust to the 

impacts of climate change. Increasing the 

number (redundancy) and distribution of 

protected fish, wildlife, and plant populations is important for the same reason. 

Establishing larger and more hospitable 

conservation areas for species to transition to will also increase opportunities 

for species to create new assemblages of 

species that are better able to persist in a 

dynamic climate.2, 3

Another challenge will be providing 

corridors between conservation areas so 

that species can freely move to new locations with suitable habitat. Protecting 

and restoring large blocks of habitat and 

using linkages and corridors to develop 

networks for movement will facilitate 

connectivity. Riparian corridors, such 

as floodplains, are useful as a conduit 

2 See “For Landowners” at <www.fws.gov/

endangered>

3 See “Programs & Services” at <www.nrcs.usda.gov/

wps/portal/nrcs/main/national/programs>

land to be protected in perpetuity will 

not be enough. Biologists and conservation land managers also must manage 

these conservation areas in innovative and flexible ways, as species and 

ecosystems respond and adjust (often in 

unpredictable fashion) to climate change. 

Flexible tools such as re-designation or 

exchanges of some existing public lands 

and the creation of additional types and/

or numbers of conservation easements, 

leases, and incentives for private landowners will be essential.

The first step to meeting this challenge 

is identifying the best candidates for 

conservation areas. Given that natural 

community types will be changing as 

each species responds to climate change 

in its own way, identifying “future” 

habitat types and the best areas to 

represent them will prove challenging. 

Areas will need to be selected through 

the use of existing and new information and tools, such as inventories, gap 

analyses, mapping (including geophysical as well as biological features (Beier 

and Brost 2010, Anderson and Ferree 

2010), vulnerability assessments, and 

geophysical and biological modeling 

(such as Species Distribution Models). 

Geographic Information Systems techniques, climate models, and inventory 

data can assist federal, state, tribal, and 

local agencies, as well as industry and 

private land owners in setting collective priorities for conservation and 

connectivity. Coordinating the efforts of 

many agencies and landowners will be a 

daunting process, but is a critical part of 

doing the job effectively and efficiently.

Increasing the number, quality, and size 

of conservation areas can increase the 

opportunities for individual species to 

adapt to climate change, and also make 

helping fish, wildlife, and plants adapt 

to climate change is to conserve enough 

variety and amount of habitat to sustain 

diverse and healthy (e.g., viable, abundant) populations as landscapes and 

seascapes are altered by climate change. 

Major reviews of climate change conservation management options generally 

identify increased habitat conservation 

and/or establishing or restoring habitat 

connectivity as the top or among the top 

options to pursue (Mawdsley et al. 2009, 

Heller and Zavaleta 2009). We will need 

well-connected networks of conservation areas to allow for the movement of 

species in response to climate change. 

Selecting areas that will be both resilient 

and able to capture the broadest range of 

species is an important challenge.

It needs to be emphasized that, as used 

here, the term “conservation area” does 

not imply anything about ownership. A 

conservation area is simply any area that 

is managed, at least in part, to maintain 

some element of natural diversity. In this 

sense, a Conservation Reserve Program 

(CRP) lease on a farm in Iowa defines a 

conservation area as much as a conservation easement on privately owned 

timberland in Maine, a State Game Land 

in Pennsylvania, or a National Wildlife 

Refuge in Florida. These are examples 

of very different kinds of conservation 

areas, but each is an important component in the overall effort to conserve 

adequate habitat for our Nation’s 

living resources. This Strategy makes 

no presumption about the best way of 

securing additional conservation areas 

(e.g., lease, conservation easement, 

fee acquisition, etc.), only that climate 

change will demand that we increase and 

perhaps accelerate collective efforts to 

do so. But simply creating new networks 

of conservation areas or acquiring more 

Goals, Strategies & Actions

Kentkenucky Department of Fish & Wildlife Resources
Climate Adaptation Goals, Strategies & Actions | 57

example, improving the sustainability 

of working ranchlands, such as is being 

done through the NRCS Sage-Grouse 

Initiative, can ensure that these lands 

remain in grass that supports both 

ranching livelihoods and wildlife species 

associated with grassland and shrubland 

habitats, rather than being degraded 

by development, tillage, woody species 

encroachment or other stressors.

for migratory species and for providing 

access to water. In addition, appropriate transitory or “stopover” habitat for 

migratory species can promote biological connectivity between non-physically 

connected areas. Private landowners, 

land trusts and government agencies 

such as energy, transportation, and 

water resources agencies will be critical 

partners in creating these ecological 

connections. At the same time, managers 

must also guard against enabling movement of invasive and overabundant 

species, pests and pathogens.

Because human development in the 

United States has been so extensive, some 

of the habitat necessary for a comprehensive network of conservation areas 

will need to be restored. In the context 

of a period of climate change, ecological 

restoration will not necessarily be about 

attempting to restore specific species 

or combinations of species, but rather 

about restoring the conditions that favor 

healthy, diverse, and productive communities of species. Key components of such 

restoration can include promoting or 

mimicking natural disturbance regimes 

like fire; managing issues like in-stream 

flows, water withdrawals, and stormwater 

runoff; and addressing poorly-sited infrastructure, such as roads in floodplains 

and sensitive coastal areas. Effective 

restoration will require applying protocols and techniques that anticipate a 

range of future conditions, including 

different species compositions, caused 

by climate change and that can facilitate 

adaptation.

Alternatively, cultural and structural conservation practices applied to 

working agricultural and forest lands 

can provide a means of helping some 

species adapt to climate change. For 

Overall, single jurisdiction or single 

interest approaches to land and water 

protection are not sufficient to deal with 

the landscape-scale changes being driven 

by climate change, and in some instances, 

may even be counter-productive. Fish, 

wildlife, and plant conservation agencies, local governments, tribes, and 

private conservation interests must work 

together in a coordinated way to build 

an ecologically-connected network of 

conservation areas.

Case Study

Making salmon populations more resilient

As a species that requires cold, fast 

flowing streams for spawning, salmon could 

be hard hit by climate change. Indeed, 

climate models project widespread, large 

increases in air and stream temperatures 

in Washington State (Mantua et al. 2009), 

where much of the nation’s key salmon 

habitat is located. Combined with anticipated declines in stream flows, higher 

temperatures would threaten not just the 

salmon, but also the immensely valuable 

industries, cultural traditions, and ecosystems that depend on the species.

As a result, there is a need to map streams 

throughout the salmon’s range to figure out 

which ones are most likely to stay cold with 

sufficient water flow (Mantua et al. 2009). 

The Washington Climate Change Impacts 

Assessment describes steps that can be 

taken to maintain good salmon habitat 

even in a changing climate, including:

» limit the amount of water that can be 

withdrawn from streams for irrigation or 

other purposes, especially in times of 

high temperatures and low stream flow;

» protect undercut banks and deep 

stratified pools, where water temperatures are lower;

» restore vegetation along streams, 

which cools the water and reduces 

sediment and pesticide levels;

» release cold water from large storage 

reservoirs during summer; and

» remove dams and other barriers so that 

cooler, protected headwaters flow more 

swiftly downstream, and salmon can 

swim upstream farther and faster.

Some of these strategies are already being 

implemented as part of the effort to protect 

and restore endangered salmon species. For 

example, two aging dams on the Elwha River 

are being removed, giving salmon access to 

60 miles of high elevation, coldwater rivers, 

and streams in Olympic National Park. 

The availability of that additional, diverse 

habitat will increase salmon resilience 

(Waples et al. 2009).

Meanwhile, the Columbia Basin Water 

Transactions Program is tackling the problem 

of low stream flows. By taking such actions as 

acquiring water rights and leasing water, the 

program is able to reduce water withdrawals at 

critical times. In another example, the USDA

Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program 

(CREP) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration’s Pacific Coastal Salmon 

Recovery fund are helping to restore vegetation in riparian zones. This restoration not only 

helps protect streams from rising temperatures 

and sediment, it also provides greater inputs 

of leaf litter and large logs that support stream 

food webs and create habitat diversity.

tim torrell
Actions

1.2.1: Conserve areas identified in Action 

1.1.1 that provide high priority habitats 

under current climate conditions and are 

likely to be resilient to climate change 

and/or support a broad array of species in 

the future.

1.2.2: Conserve areas representing the 

range of geophysical settings, including 

various bedrock geology, soils, topography, 

and projected climate, in order to maximize 

future biodiversity.

Strategy 1.2: Secure appropriate 

conservation status on areas 

identified in Action 1.1.1 to 

complete an ecologicallyconnected network of public 

and private conservation areas 

that will be resilient to climate 

change and support a broad 

range of species under changed 

conditions.

Strategy 1.1: Identify areas for an 

ecologically-connected network of 

terrestrial, freshwater, coastal, 

and marine conservation areas 

that are likely to be resilient to 

climate change and to support a 

broad range of fish, wildlife, and 

plants under changed conditions.

Actions

1.1.1: Identify and map high priority areas 

for conservation using information such 

as species distributions (current and 

projected), habitat classification, land cover, 

and geophysical settings (including areas of 

rapid change and slow change).

1.1.2: Identify and prioritize areas currently 

experiencing rapid climate impacts (e.g., 

the coastline of Alaska, low-lying islands, 

and high alpine tundra).

1.1.3: Assess the potential of species to 

shift ranges, and prioritize conservation 

efforts taking into account range shifts 

and accounting for ecosystem functions 

and existing and future physical barriers.

1.1.4: Establish and maintain a comprehensive, inter-jurisdictional inventory of current 

conservation areas and candidate high 

priority conservation areas in order to 

coordinate future conservation efforts.

1.1.5: Re-prioritize conservation targets 

of existing land and water conservation 

programs in light of areas identified in 

1.1.1.and listed in 1.1.4 and 1.4.2.

Climate change could threaten 

amphibian species through 

increased flooding as well as drying.

Case Study

Building connectivity in New Jersey

If current low-lying coastal areas in 

New Jersey are flooded by spring high tides, 

as expected with sea level rises caused by 

climate change (Titus and Richman 2001), 

many amphibians will no longer be able to 

migrate up the Cape May Peninsula. That 

could threaten the viability of species like 

the state-endangered eastern tiger salamander and Cope’s gray treefrog.

The New Jersey Division of Fish and Wildlife 

is working to provide more habitat for these 

amphibians and to better connect habitats to allow migration. Such migration 

prevents small populations from becoming 

isolated, thus, preserving genetic diversity 

for key species (Marsh and Trenham 2001, 

Cushman 2006).

For many amphibians, the key habitat is the 

vernal pool, a temporary pond that is typically 

deepest in the spring. The state has been both 

working to preserve existing vernal pools and 

looking for sites where it could create new 

pools. The sites were picked based on such 

criteria as elevation above anticipated sea 

level rise, vicinity to other vernal pools and 

upland habitat, location on state protected 

land, proper soil characteristics, and use by a 

variety of species.

When the effort is complete, the state will 

have established a connected network of 

vernal pool “strongholds” that will give New 

Jersey’s amphibians a far better chance to 

adapt and survive as sea levels rise.

Goals, Strategies & Actions

USFWS/Gary Stolz
Climate Adaptation Goals, Strategies & Actions | 59

1.2.3: Build back-up redundancy into the 

network of conservation areas by protecting 

multiple examples of the range of priority 

areas identified in Action 1.1.1.

1.2.4: Work with partners at landscape 

scales to strengthen and maximize use of 

existing conservation programs, particularly 

the conservation title of the Farm 

Bill, conservation easement tax incentives, 

the private lands programs focused on 

endangered species, and other federal 

and state private lands incentive programs 

to conserve private lands of high conservation value, to enhance habitat values 

and maintain working landscapes under 

climate change.

1.2.5: Identify and pursue opportunities to 

increase conservation of priority lands and 

waters by working with managers of existing 

public lands such as military installations 

or state lands managed for purposes other 

than conservation.

Strategy 1.3: Restore habitat 

features where necessary and 

practicable to maintain ecosystem 

function and resiliency to climate 

change.

Actions

1.3.1: Develop and implement restoration 

protocols and techniques that promote 

ecosystem resilience and facilitate adaptation under a range of possible future 

conditions.

1.3.2: Restore degraded habitats as appropriate to support a diversity of species 

assemblages and ecosystem structure and 

function.

1.3.3: Restore or enhance areas that will 

provide essential habitat and ecosystem 

services during ecosystem transitions under 

a changing climate.

1.3.4: Restore disturbance regimes as 

appropriate to emerging conditions, 

including instituting human-assisted 

disturbance where necessary (e.g., 

prescribed fire).

1.3.5: Develop programs to encourage resilience through restoration of habitat features 

that provide natural buffers.

1.3.6: Develop market-based incentives 

that encourage habitat restoration where 

appropriate.

Strategy 1.4: Conserve, 

restore, and as appropriate 

and practicable, establish new 

ecological connections among 

conservation areas to facilitate 

fish, wildlife, and plant migration, 

range shifts, and other transitions 

caused by climate change.

Actions

1.4.1: Identify species with special connectivity needs (i.e., those that are area-limited, 

resource-limited, dispersal-limited, or 

process-limited).

1.4.2: Assess and prioritize critical connectivity gaps and needs across current 

conservation areas, including areas likely to 

serve as refugia in a changing climate.

1.4.3: Conserve corridors and transitional habitats between ecosystem types 

through both traditional and non-traditional 

(e.g., land exchanges, rolling easements) 

approaches.

1.4.4: Assess and take steps to reduce 

risks of facilitating movement of undesirable 

non-native species, pests, and pathogens.

1.4.5: Assess existing physical barriers 

or structures that impede movement and 

dispersal within and among habitats to 

increase natural ecosystem resilience to 

climate change, and where necessary, 

consider the redesign or mitigation of 

these structures.

1.4.6: Provide landowners and stakeholder 

groups with incentives for conservation and 

restoration of key corridor habitats through 

conservation programs such as those under 

the conservation title of the Farm Bill and 

landowner tools under the ESA as well as 

other mechanisms such as conservation 

easement tax incentive programs designed 

to protect private lands of high connectivity 

value under climate change.

GOAL 1 

PROGRESS CHECK LIST

Areas resilient to climate change 

identified;

Gap analysis of geophysical settings 

completed and priority candidate 

areas identified;

Desired ecological connectivity among conservation areas 

identified;

Baseline comprehensive inventory 

of conservation areas completed;

Suite of land protection tools 

(designations, exchanges, acquisitions, easements, leases, 

incentives) evaluated and updated;

Protocols for incorporating climate 

change into ecological restoration 

efforts developed and implemented;

Begin conserving and/or restoring 

high priority areas for fish, wildlife, 

and plants under climate change.
60 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

developed climate change strategies for 

their agencies (see Chapter 5 for a more 

detailed discussion of ongoing adaptation planning). Nonetheless, many other 

agencies and most of the specific resource 

plans agencies are responsible for do not 

yet take climate change into account. This 

deficiency must be addressed, because 

managing for the status quo is no longer 

sufficient. We must build on our legacy 

of conservation action and begin to integrate climate adaptation strategies and 

actions into existing species and conservation area management plans if species 

and ecosystems are to survive and thrive 

in an uncertain future (see Glick et al. 

2011a and Poiani et al. 2011 for a discussion of applicable methods).

Management plans and programs must 

consider species’ abilities to adapt to 

climate change. They must also consider 

the ability of habitats to be resilient in 

the face of climate change, not necessarily in the sense of maintaining their 

current species composition, but in 

the sense of their overall functionality. 

Maximizing the chances for species to 

adapt to climate change likely includes 

maintaining a full range of genetic diversity across managed plant and animal 

populations. Some species may need 

more direct management, such as captive 

breeding. In other cases, managers may 

need to consider whether human interventions such as translocation or assisted 

relocation are appropriate. Because some 

of these actions may be new and potentially controversial, they need to be fully 

explored before moving forward, and 

collaborative, deliberative, and flexible 

decision-making will be critical.

As described in Chapter 1, humans depend upon and derive 

multiple benefits from fish, wildlife, plants, and their habitats. Our 

living resources are vital for ceremonial, spiritual, and subsistence 

practices by indigenous peoples; recreational activities such as sport 

fishing, hunting, birding, and nature photography; and commercial 

interests such as fisheries, wood products, and food production. They 

are part of the core fabric of America, providing livelihoods, cultural 

identity, and boundless opportunities.

Goal 2

Manage species and habitats to protect 

ecosystem functions and provide sustainable 

cultural, subsistence, recreational, and 

commercial use in a changing climate.

The United States has a highly developed set of management agencies and 

authorities that work to maintain our 

existing living resources and the many 

uses and benefits they provide. Virtually 

all of these agencies have sophisticated 

management plans for the species and 

areas under their jurisdiction. Some of 

these plans have incorporated climate 

change considerations. For example, 

some 17 states have already developed or 

are in the process of developing climate 

adaptation strategies for their fish, wildlife, and plant resources. At the federal 

level, the FWS, the National Park Service, 

and the U.S. Forest Service have all 

Maximizing the chances for 

species to adapt to climate 

change likely includes 

maintaining a full range of 

genetic diversity across 

managed plant and animal 

populations.

Goals, Strategies & Actions USFWS/Ryan Hagerty
Climate Adaptation Goals, Strategies & Actions | 61

2.1.9: Develop strategic protection, retreat, 

and abandonment plans for areas currently 

experiencing rapid climate change impacts 

(e.g., coastline of Alaska and low-lying 

islands).

Strategy 2.2: Develop and apply 

species-specific management 

approaches to address critical 

climate change impacts where 

necessary.

Actions:

2.2.1: Use vulnerability and risk assessments to design and implement 

management actions at species to 

ecosystem scales.

2.2.2: Develop criteria and guidelines that 

foster the appropriate use, and discourage 

inappropriate use of translocation, assisted 

relocation, and captive breeding as climate 

adaptation strategies.

2.2.3: Where appropriate, actively manage 

populations (e.g., using harvest limits, 

seasons, translocation, captive breeding, 

and supplementation) of vulnerable species 

to ensure sustainability and maintain biodiversity, human use, and other ecological 

functions.

2.1.3: Identify species and habitats 

particularly vulnerable to transition under 

climate change (e.g., wetlands, cool-water 

to warm-water fisheries, or cool season 

to warm season grasslands) and develop 

management strategies and approaches for 

adaptation.

2.1.4: Review and revise as necessary 

techniques to maintain or mimic natural 

disturbance regimes and to protect vulnerable habitats consistent with emerging 

conditions.

2.1.5: Review and revise as necessary existing species and habitat impact 

avoidance, minimization, mitigation, and 

compensation standards and develop new 

standards as necessary to address impacts 

in a manner that incorporates climate 

change considerations.

2.1.6: Review permitting intervals in light 

of the scope and pace of climate change 

impacts.

2.1.7: Review existing management frameworks and identify ways to increase the 

ability of stakeholders to adapt their 

actions to climate variability and change 

while preserving the integrity and sustainability of natural resources, habitats, and 

ecosystems.

2.1.8: Utilize the principles of ecosystembased management and green 

infrastructure.

Continued development and application 

of ecosystem based approaches to natural 

resource management is also a key step 

in this process. This approach grew out of 

broad acknowledgement that successful 

management required multi-dimensional, multispecies, and multi-sector 

approaches across broader time and 

spatial scales than was previously practiced. The scale and scope of climate 

change impacts on natural and human 

communities make this type of approach 

even more essential for sustaining 

ecosystem functions in a changing world.

Strategy 2.1: Update current or 

develop new species, habitat, 

and land and water management 

plans, programs and practices 

to consider climate change and 

support adaptation.

Actions:

2.1.1: Incorporate climate change considerations into new and future revisions of 

species and area management plans (e.g., 

North American Waterfowl Management 

Plan, National Forest Plans, State Wildlife 

Action Plans, and agency-specific climate 

change adaptation plans such as federal 

agency adaptation plans required by E.O. 

13514) using the best available science 

regarding projected climate changes and 

trends, vulnerability and risk assessments, 

scenario planning, and other appropriate 

tools as necessary.

2.1.2: Develop and implement best management practices to support habitat resilience 

in a changing climate.

USFWS/Dave Menke
62 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Strategy 2.3: Conserve genetic 

diversity by protecting diverse 

populations and genetic material 

across the full range of species 

occurrences.

CLIMATE CHANGE MAY BRING THE LOSS of 

major populations of plants—or even entire 

species. One of the key approaches for 

boosting a species’ chances of surviving in 

a changed world is maintaining the species’ 

genetic diversity.

Both of these issues can be addressed by 

collecting and banking seeds and other plant 

materials. An extensive seed bank can save 

species that go extinct in the wild, preserve 

the genetic diversity needed for other species 

to cope with a changed environment, and 

provide the seed needed for restoration 

projects.

Such a preservation effort is now underway. In 

2001, Congress directed the Interagency Plant 

CASE STUDY

Seed banking in a changing climate

Conservation Alliance to develop a longterm program to manage and supply native 

plant materials for various federal land 

management restoration and rehabilitation 

needs. Working with hundreds of partners in 

federal, tribal, and state agencies, universities, conservation groups, native seed 

producers, and others, the program has 

now collected seeds from more than 3,000 

native plant species in the United Sates.

Global networks, such as the Global Strategy 

for Plant Conservation and the Gran Canaria 

Declaration on Climate Change and Plant 

Conservation, also exist to protect plants. 

These are both important documents that 

can be used in the development of criteria 

and guidelines for plants.

ACTIONS

2.3.1: Develop and implement approaches 

for assessing and maximizing the potential 

for maintaining genetic diversity of plant and 

animal species.

2.3.2: Protect and maintain high quality 

native seed sources including identifying 

areas for seed collection across elevational 

and latitudinal ranges of target species.

2.3.3: Develop protocols for use of propagation techniques to rebuild abundance and 

genetic diversity for particularly at-risk plant 

and animal species.

2.3.4: Seed bank, develop, and deploy as 

appropriate plant materials for restoration 

that will be resilient in response to climate 

change.

2.3.5: Develop ex-situ living collections with 

partners such as botanic gardens, arboreta, 

zoos, and aquaria.

GOAL 2 

PROGRESS CHECK LIST

Species requiring active intervention 

identified;

Genetic conservation issues 

identified;

Fire and other disturbance regimes 

managed to better suite emerging 

conditions;

Criteria and guidelines developed for 

translocation, assisted relocation, 

and captive breeding;

Vulnerability and risk assessments 

and scenario planning used to guide 

species management decisions;

Best management practices developed and initiated;

Species and area management 

plans updated;

State Wildlife Action Plans updated 

to include climate adaptation;

Agency specific climate change 

adaptation plans developed and 

integrated with other appropriate 

plans;

Seed banks and living collections 

developed consistent with planning.

Goals, Strategies & Actions

Graphic adapted from BLM/Interagency Native Plant Materials Development Program

native seed 

collection

seed 

storage

evaluation & 

development

private grower 

production

field 

establishment

restore native 

plant communities
Climate Adaptation Goals, Strategies & Actions | 63

Goal 3

Enhance capacity for effective management 

in a changing climate.

It is becoming increasingly 

important to train wildlife 

professionals on how to 

incorporate climate change into 

their management practices.

Climate change adaptation requires altering existing or developing 

new ways of assessing information, new management tools, and 

new professional skills. Natural resource agency professionals need 

accessible opportunities to learn about climate-related species, 

habitat, and ecosystem changes as well as how to identify the most 

promising strategies to conserve fish, wildlife, and plant populations 

and functioning ecosystems. 

While well-trained in ecology and applied resource management, 

many managers have not yet had the 

opportunity to learn about and understand how climate change “changes the 

rules” about conservation of fish, wildlife, 

and plants. These professionals require 

training to enhance their capacity and 

confidence to understand the impacts of 

climate change and to design and deliver 

effective climate adaptation programs.

Climate change impacts are occurring at 

scales much larger than the operational 

scope of individual organizations and 

agencies, and successful adaptation to 

climate change demands a strong collaboration among all jurisdictions charged 

with fish, wildlife, and plant conservation, both domestic and international. 

Although some regionally integrated, 

multi-jurisdictional climate change adaptation programs and plans exist, more are 

needed. Collaborative efforts will result 

in more informed, relevant, and creative 

solutions for all stakeholders. Federal, 

state, and tribal resources managers 

should work together with their partners across jurisdictions and regional 

scales (including international borders) 

to provide context and coordination for 

species and conservation area management in the context of climate change 

scenarios. Current institutional disconnects and barriers can hamper our ability 

to manage fish, wildlife, plants, and 

ecosystems across jurisdictions. This is an 

opportunity for practitioners to network 

their capacities to be more effective and 

efficient in terms of monitoring, data 

sharing, data development, and adaptive management. Existing and emerging 

partnerships and organizations (e.g., 

LCCs, Climate Science Centers (CSCs) 

JVs, Regional Integrated Sciences and 

Assessments (RISAs), NFHPs, regional 

ocean governors’ alliances, AFWA, the 

Association of State Wetland Managers, 

and others) provide useful forums for 

multiple jurisdictions and partners to 

better work together to define, design, 

and deliver sustainable landscapes at a 

regional scale.

Many fish, wildlife, and plant conservation laws, regulations, and policies 

were developed without the current 

understanding of climate change. These 

legal and policy foundations should 

be reviewed to identify opportunities 

to improve, where appropriate, their 

usefulness to address climate change 

considerations. This review process 

should assure that these legal foundations 

assist, and do not impede, adaptation 

efforts. Appropriate regulatory tools and 

usfws
64 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

3.1.3: Develop training on the use of 

existing and emerging tools for managing 

under uncertainty (e.g., vulnerability and risk 

assessments, scenario planning, decision 

support tools, and adaptive management).

3.1.4: Develop a web-based clearinghouse 

of training opportunities and materials 

addressing climate change impacts on 

natural resource management.

3.1.5: Encourage use of interagency 

personnel agreements and interagency 

(state, federal, and tribal) joint training 

programs as a way to disperse knowledge, 

share experience and develop interagency 

communities of practice about climate 

change adaptation.

3.1.6: Support and enhance web-based 

clearinghouses of information (e.g., www.

CAKEX.org, etc.) on climate change adaptation strategies and actions targeted towards 

the needs of resource managers and decision makers.

3.1.7: Increase scientific and management capacity (e.g., botanical expertise) to 

develop management strategies to address 

impacts and changes to species.

3.1.8: Develop training materials to help 

managers and decision makers apply 

climate knowledge to the administration of 

existing natural resource and environmental 

laws and policies.

adequate enforcement will be important 

to reduce existing stressors on fish, wildlife, and plants. It is also essential that 

programs are reviewed to maximize the 

utility of existing conservation funding 

and to increase the priority of climate 

change adaptation work.

Strategy 3.1: Increase the climate 

change awareness and capacity 

of natural resource managers 

and other decision makers and 

enhance their professional 

abilities to design, implement, 

and evaluate fish, wildlife, and 

plant adaptation programs.

Actions

3.1.1: Build on existing needs assessments 

to identify gaps in climate change knowledge and technical capacity among natural 

resource professionals.

3.1.2: Build on existing training courses and 

work with professional societies, academicians, technical experts, and natural 

resource agency training professionals 

to address key needs, augment adaptation training opportunities, and develop 

curricula, a common lexicon, and delivery 

systems for natural resource professionals 

and decision makers.

Case Study

Sea level rise in Delaware

A rising sea combined with sinking 

land creates a watery future. The state of 

Delaware is experiencing both, with relative sea levels to rise at the rapid rate of 

one inch every eight years (NOAA 2009). 

That is a big problem in a state where more 

than 10 percent of the land lies less than 

eight feet above sea level and no spot is 

farther than 35 miles from the Atlantic 

Ocean, Delaware Bay, or Delaware River. 

Residences, communities, and industries 

are at risk. In fact, the state is already 

experiencing worrisome coastal flooding. 

Breaches in the sandy shoreline at Prime 

Hook National Wildlife Refuge, for instance, 

have allowed saltwater into freshwater 

marshes that provide important waterfowl 

habitat.

Keenly aware of the threat, the state of 

Delaware has created a Sea Level Rise 

Initiative to understand the impacts of sea 

level rise, prepare for inundation in some 

areas, respond where necessary, and keep 

the public informed. Prime Hook National 

Wildlife Refuge is collaborating with the 

state of Delaware to implement short-term 

adaptation strategies to address inundation and saltwater intrusion into freshwater 

impoundments by re-establishing the 

shoreline.

Goals, Strategies & Actions

Greg Thompson / usfws
Climate Adaptation Goals, Strategies & Actions | 65

Indigenous communities possess

traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and 

relationships with particular resources and 

homeland areas, accumulated through 

thousands of years of history and tradition, which make them highly sensitive to, 

and aware of, environmental change. TEK

can be defined as the “holistic, evolving 

practices and beliefs passed down through 

generations about the relationships of living 

beings to their environment” (Swinomish 

2010). This knowledge is place-specific and 

includes the relationships between plants, 

animals, natural phenomena, landscapes, 

and phenology that are used for regular 

practices like hunting, fishing, trapping, and 

forestry (Rinkevich et al. 2011).

Because of the dependence of American 

Indians and Alaska Natives on their natural 

resources for their economic and cultural 

identity, climate change is a threat not only 

to those natural resources, but also to the 

traditions, the culture, and ultimately, the 

very health of the communities themselves. 

TEK holds great value with respect to 

climate change assessment and adaptation 

efforts, by helping to understand climatic 

impacts on a wide variety of ecological 

processes and ecosystems, at various 

scales (Nabhan 2010). Governments and 

organizations, from the Intergovernmental 

Panel on Climate Change to DOI, are 

increasingly recognizing the value of TEK as 

a complement to research for developing a 

comprehensive response to climate change 

impacts, both in indigenous and non-indigenous communities (DOI 2010, Anisimov et 

al. 2007). Despite this gradually increasing 

acknowledgement, the status and trust obligations related to TEK have yet to receive 

comprehensive treatment.

Strategy 3.2: Facilitate a 

coordinated response to climate 

change at landscape, regional, 

national, and international 

scales across state, federal, 

and tribal natural resource 

agencies and private conservation 

organizations.

Actions

3.2.1: Use regional venues, such as LCCs, 

to collaborate across jurisdictions and 

develop conservation goals and landscape/

seascape scale plans capable of sustaining 

fish, wildlife, and plants.

3.2.2: Identify and address conflicting 

management objectives within and among 

federal, state, and tribal conservation 

agencies and private landowners, and seek 

to align policies and approaches wherever 

possible.

3.2.3: Integrate individual agency and 

state climate change adaptation programs 

and State Wildlife Action Plans with other 

regional conservation efforts, such as 

LCCs, to foster collaboration.

3.2.4: Collaborate with tribal governments and native peoples to integrate 

traditional ecological knowledge and principles into climate adaptation plans and 

decision-making.

3.2.5: Engage with international neighbors, including Canada, Mexico, Russia, 

and nations in the Caribbean Basin, Arctic 

Circle, and Pacific Ocean to help adapt 

to and mitigate climate change impacts 

in shared trans-boundary areas and for 

common migratory species.

3.2.6: Foster interaction among landowners, local experts, and specialists to 

identify opportunities for adaptation and to 

share resources and expertise that otherwise would not be available to many small 

landowners.

Alaska Natives are already facing the effects 

of climate change head on. For example, due 

to erosion rates and increased climate change 

effects (e.g., sea ice retreat, permafrost melt, 

storm effects) the village of Newtok, home 

to the Qaluyaarmiut people, has begun relocation plans (Feifel and Gregg 2010). The 

Qaluyaarmiut are avid fishermen and depend 

on the natural environment for subsistence. 

The American Indian Alaska Native Climate 

Change Working Group represent a broad 

alliance of indigenous communities, tribal 

colleges, scientists, and activists, who work 

together to empower indigenous climate 

change adaptation. Indigenous educational 

institutions are critical vehicles for nurturing 

indigenous environmental knowledge and 

scientific capacity, and can be leaders of 

regional indigenous responses to climate 

change (Upham 2011).

In addition to working groups that focus on 

indigenous climate issues, TEK is already 

being utilized by other management entities 

in Alaska. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 

and the State of Alaska Department of Fish 

and Game collect and use TEK for research 

and monitoring fish populations and their 

responses to climate and environmental 

change (Rinkevich et al. 2011). The response 

to certain environmental disasters and the 

justification of listing the polar bear as a 

threatened species both relied on the inclusion 

of TEK to understand and document historical 

ecological characteristics (Rinkevich et al. 

2011). The relationships developed in Alaska 

are an excellent example of not only how TEK

can be successfully integrated into management activities, but also how this knowledge 

can be collected, used, and protected in a 

respectful and culturally-sensitive manner.

Case Study

Traditional ecological knowledge

Jeff Nichols
66 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

3.4.5: Review existing conservation related 

federal grants to tribal agencies and revise 

as necessary to provide funding for tribal 

climate adaptation activities.

3.4.6: Develop a web-based clearinghouse 

of funding opportunities available to support 

climate adaptation efforts.

3.3.6: Continue the ongoing work of 

the Joint State-Federal Task Force on 

Endangered Species Act Policy to ensure 

that policies guiding implementation of the 

ESA provide appropriate flexibility to address 

climate change impacts on listed fish, wildlife, and plants and to integrate the efforts 

of federal, state, and tribal agencies to 

conserve listed species.

3.3.7: Initiate a dialogue among all affected 

interests about opportunities to improve the 

usefulness of existing legal, regulatory, and 

policy frameworks to address impacts of 

sea level rise on coastal habitats.

Strategy 3.4: Optimize use of 

existing fish, wildlife, and plant 

conservation funding sources 

to design, deliver, and evaluate 

climate adaptation programs.

Actions

3.4.1: Prioritize funding for land and water 

protection programs that incorporate climate 

change considerations.

3.4.2: Review existing federal, state, and 

tribal grant programs and revise as necessary to support funding of climate change 

adaptation and include climate change 

considerations in the evaluation and ranking 

process of grant selection and awards.

3.4.3: Collaborate with state and tribal agencies and private conservation partners to 

sustain authorization and appropriations for 

the State and Tribal Wildlife Grants Program 

and include climate change criteria in grant 

review process.

3.4.4: Collaborate with agricultural interests 

and businesses to identify potential impacts 

of climate change on crop production and 

identify conservation strategies that will 

maintain or improve ecosystem services 

through programs under the conservation 

title of the Farm Bill or other vehicles.

Strategy 3.3: Review existing 

federal, state and tribal legal, 

regulatory and policy frameworks 

that provide the jurisdictional 

framework for conservation of 

fish, wildlife, and plants to identify 

opportunities to improve, where 

appropriate, their usefulness to 

address climate change impacts.

Actions

3.3.1: Review existing legal, regulatory 

and policy frameworks that govern protection and restoration of habitats and identify 

opportunities to incorporate the value of 

ecosystem services and improve, where 

appropriate, the utility of these frameworks 

to address climate change impacts.

3.3.2: Review existing legal, regulatory and 

policy frameworks and identify opportunities 

to develop or enhance, where appropriate, 

market-based incentives to support restoration of habitats and ecosystem services 

impacted by climate change. Identify 

opportunities to eliminate disincentives to 

conservation and adaptation.

3.3.3: Review existing legal, regulatory and 

policy frameworks and identify opportunities 

to improve, where appropriate, compensatory mitigation requirements to account for 

climate change.

3.3.4: Review existing legal, regulatory and 

policy frameworks that govern floodplain 

mapping, flood insurance, and flood mitigation and identify opportunities to improve 

their usefulness to reduce risks and 

increase adaptation of natural resources 

and communities in a changing climate.

3.3.5: Review existing legal, regulatory and 

policy tools that provide the jurisdictional 

framework for conservation of fish, wildlife, 

and plants to identify existing provisions 

that provide climate change adaptation 

benefits.

GOAL 3 

PROGRESS CHECK LIST

Natural resource professional 

training needs identified;

Climate adaptation training collaboratives established;

Core curricula for climate adaptation 

established;

Training opportunity and accessibility increased;

Interagency personnel assignments 

expanded;

Regional collaboratives engaged 

to serve as venues for inter-jurisdictional collaboration on climate 

change adaptation;

Legal, regulatory, and policy frameworks regarding key conservation 

statues reviewed and as necessary, 

updated;

Floodplain maps updated;

Dialogue initiated to improve implementation of existing legal policy 

frameworks, regulations, and policies to respond to climate impacts;

Criteria to include climate change 

adaptation in existing conservation 

grant programs developed;

Criteria for including climate change 

adaptation needs in resource allocation developed;

Funding allocations reviewed/

revised in light of climate change 

priorities.

Goals, Strategies & Actions
Climate Adaptation Goals, Strategies & Actions | 67

Inventory, monitoring, and observation 

systems should be maintained, addressed, 

and where needed, coordinated to enable 

resource managers to monitor and 

identify changes in ecological baselines 

from the species to the ecosystem level, 

and to prioritize and develop adaptation plans and actions. Monitoring 

and tracking key ecological variables 

can provide early warnings of pending 

change, and is essential to evaluating 

and improving adaptation responses 

over time. The National Ecological 

Observatory Network is an example of 

such an effort to deploy instrumentation at sites to measure key ecosystem 

variables arrayed across important environmental gradients. Other such systems 

include, but are not limited to, the Forest 

Inventory and Analysis, the Natural 

Resource Assessment, the Breeding Bird 

Survey, the National Wetlands Inventory, 

Integrated Ecosystem Assessments, the 

Integrated Ocean Observing System and 

many others. Monitoring systems, especially those that meet local to regional 

needs, will allow managers and other 

decision makers to evaluate the efficacy 

of management actions. International 

efforts are critical to monitor and track 

climate impacts on species that migrate 

to and depend on areas beyond U.S. 

borders. Where existing systems do not 

meet all management needs, additional 

programs may need to be developed.

While observation systems provide 

critical data for resource managers, 

those data have far greater utility when 

processed, analyzed, and made available as readily useable information. 

The need for information management 

and increased access to information is 

well-documented (Glick et al. 2011b). A 

multi-disciplinary approach to link and 

Goal 4

Vulnerability assessments and 

scenario planning can inform 

and enable management 

planning and decision-making 

under uncertainty.

Support adaptive management in a 

changing climate through integrated 

observation and monitoring and use of 

decision support tools.

There is uncertainty regarding the specific impacts of climate 

change on natural resources. There is also much to be learned about 

the effectiveness of management actions to mitigate these impacts. 

To improve understanding of adaptation options, it is important 

to support the development and use of long-term data series, 

information systems, and decision support tools.

The use of these tools, best professional judgment, and stakeholder 

involvement is critical to the design 

and implementation of management 

approaches to promote climate change 

adaptation. The continuous learning 

principles of adaptive management 

should be used to monitor the response 

to management actions, evaluate effectiveness, gain new knowledge, and 

improve and inform future management 

decisions. When coupled with research 

on specific impacts to fish, wildlife, 

plants, and habitats and their response to 

climate change (Goal 5), managers will 

be better equipped to implement effective 

management actions.

jenny leff
68 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

4.1.5: Develop consensus standards and 

protocols that enable multi-partner use and 

data discovery, as well as interoperability of 

databases and analysis tools related to fish, 

wildlife, and plant observation, inventory, 

and monitoring.

4.1.6: Develop, refine, and implement 

monitoring protocols that provide key 

information needed for managing and 

conserving species and ecosystems in a 

changing climate.

4.1.7: Use existing or define new indicators at appropriate scales that can be used 

to monitor the response of fish, wildlife, 

plants, and ecosystems to climate change.

4.1.8: Promote a collaborative approach to 

acquire, process, archive, and disseminate 

essential geospatial and satellite-based 

remote sensing data products (e.g., snow 

cover, green-up, surface water, wetlands) 

needed for regional-scale monitoring and 

land management.

4.1.9: Collaborate with the National 

Phenology Network to facilitate monitoring 

of phenology; create an analogous National 

Population Network to catalog changes 

in distribution and abundance of fish, 

wildlife, and plants that have been identified 

as most vulnerable to climate change.

4.1.10: Identify and develop a lessons 

learned/success stories list of multi-partner 

data development, analysis, and dissemination efforts.

Strategy 4.1: Support, coordinate, 

and where necessary develop 

distributed but integrated 

inventory, monitoring, 

observation, and information 

systems at multiple scales to 

detect and describe climate 

impacts on fish, wildlife, plants, 

and ecosystems.

Actions

4.1.1: Synthesize existing observations, 

monitoring, assessment, and decision 

support tools as summarized by the 

U.S. Global Change Research Program 

Ecosystem Working Group. Conduct a knowledge-gap analysis of existing observation 

networks, indicators, monitoring programs, 

remote sensing capabilities, and geospatial 

data necessary to define priorities.

4.1.2: Use available long-term monitoring 

programs at appropriate scales (local to 

international) as baselines for population and migration changes that could 

be affected by climate change (e.g., 

International Waterfowl Surveys).

4.1.3: Work through existing distributed 

efforts (e.g., NCA, National Estuarine 

Research Reserve System’s system-wide 

monitoring program, State Natural Heritage 

Programs, National Wildlife Refuge System 

and National Park Service inventory and 

monitoring programs) to support integrated national observation and information 

systems that inform climate adaptation.

4.1.4: Expand and develop as necessary a 

network of sentinel sites (e.g., tribal lands, 

National Estuarine Research Reserves, 

and National Wildlife Refuges) for integrated climate change inventory, monitoring, 

research, and education.

make available data currently developed by separate agencies or groups will 

increase access to and use of this information by resource managers, planners, 

and decision makers.

Vulnerability assessments are important 

science-based tools that inform adaptation planning by identifying, quantifying, 

or evaluating the degree to which natural 

resources or other values are likely to be 

affected by changing climatic conditions. 

They may focus on natural resources, 

communities, species, sites, regions, 

sectors, or other values or targets, and 

should consider both current and future 

impacts. Vulnerability is generally 

defined as a combination of sensitivity 

to change, likely exposure to changing 

conditions, and the capacity to adapt 

to those changes over time (IPCC AR 4 

2007). Vulnerability assessments should 

address all three factors. These types of 

assessments can help managers develop 

and prioritize adaptation strategies as 

well as inform management approaches.

Tools, such as vulnerability and risk 

assessments and scenario planning, 

can inform and enable management 

planning and decision-making under 

uncertainty. Identifying, developing, 

and employing these types of tools will 

help managers facilitate adaptation of 

individual species, increase habitat 

resilience, and help identify where 

changes to the built environment may 

conflict with ecosystem needs.

Goals, Strategies & Actions
Climate Adaptation Goals, Strategies & Actions | 69

GOAL 4 

PROGRESS CHECK LIST

Public/private collaborative 

convened to build nationally integrated inventory, monitoring, 

observation and information 

systems to inform climate change 

adaptation actions;

Existing public and private inventory, monitoring, observation, and 

information systems linked and 

information systems assessed, 

linked, and made available;

Data collection standards for 

common set of climate change 

metrics established;

Coordinated sentinel sites identified, 

linked, and as necessary, established to monitor climate change 

impacts and responses;

Targeted monitoring of fish, wildlife, 

plants, and their habitats for the 

effects of climate change initiated;

Federal, state, and tribal managers 

provided with access to natural 

resources information and other 

necessary data;

Evaluation of existing and new 

climate adaptation plans uses 

observation and monitoring 

systems;

Regionally downscaled climate 

projections produced where 

appropriate;

Standardized climate change 

scenarios developed;

Models for climate change impacts 

to species and habitats improved or 

developed;

Framework of tools for managing 

under uncertainty developed;

Vulnerability and risk assessments 

conducted for priority species.

4.2.5: Synthesize vulnerability assessments 

across jurisdictions to provide regional 

assessments.

4.2.6: Engage scientists, resource 

managers, economists, and stakeholders 

in climate change scenario planning 

processes, including identification of a set 

of plausible future scenarios associated 

with climate phenomena and socioeconomics likely to significantly impact 

fish, wildlife, and plants.

4.2.7: Ensure the availability of and provide 

guidance for decision support tools (e.g., 

NOAA’s Digital Coast, Sea Level Affecting 

Marshes Model (SLAMM), etc.) that assist 

federal, state, local, and tribal resource 

managers and planners in effectively 

managing fish, wildlife, and plants in a 

changing climate.

4.2.8: Use observation and monitoring 

systems in an adaptive management 

framework to evaluate the effectiveness 

of specific management actions and adapt 

management approaches appropriately.

4.2.9: Develop a central repository for 

sharing experiences and reporting progress in implementing the Strategy in order 

to share information across implementing 

agencies and partners and to inform future 

iterations of the Strategy.

Strategy 4.2: Identify, develop, and 

employ decision support tools 

for managing under uncertainty 

(e.g., vulnerability and risk 

assessments, scenario planning, 

strategic habitat conservation 

approaches, forecasting, and 

adaptive management evaluation 

systems) via dialogue with 

scientists, managers (of natural 

resources and other sectors), 

economists, and stakeholders.

ACTIONS

4.2.1: Develop regional downscaling of 

Global Climate models to conduct vulnerability assessments of living resources.

4.2.2: Develop, disseminate, and utilize 

geophysical and biological modeling 

(such as Species Distribution Models).

4.2.3: Conduct vulnerability and risk 

assessments for habitats and priority 

species (threatened and endangered 

species, species of greatest conservation 

need, and species of socioeconomic and 

cultural significance).

4.2.4: Define national standards and 

criteria to identify fish, wildlife, plants, 

and ecosystems most vulnerable to climate 

change impacts.

USFWS/GREG WANNER
70 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

case study

Sentinel site monitoring

Crafting an effective climate adaptation strategy is difficult without having good 

data on the impacts of climate change. 

Collecting that vital information, in turn, 

requires observing and measuring what is 

happening at specific locations over many 

years. In 2008, the National Estuarine 

Research Reserve System (NERRS) began 

establishing such so-called “sentinel sites” 

to learn how estuarine habitats respond to 

sea level change.

One of those sentinel sites is the Elkhorn 

Slough Reserve in California’s Monterey 

Bay. The area began losing some of its 

tidal wetlands more than 100 years ago 

when dikes and water control structures 

began to decrease tidal exchange and to 

many portions of the estuary. An artificial 

mouth to the estuary created in 1946 to 

accommodate a new harbor also contributed to wetland loss. Now, sea level rise is 

further threatening this valuable estuarine 

ecosystem. At the same time, the estuary 

is under stress from eutrophication, groundwater withdrawals, and other factors.

To understand the complex effects of 

these stressors, the NERRS is intensely 

monitoring the ecosystem. Researchers 

are recording surface water levels, testing 

water quality, and measuring changes 

occurring in tidal marsh plants, and 

submerged aquatic vegetation. They are 

also monitoring the amounts of sediment in 

the wetlands and changes in land elevation.

So far, the project has documented a 

worrisome trend. The marshes appear to 

be sinking, and this subsidence greatly 

decreases their resilience to future sea 

level rise. Eventually, rising sea levels will 

increase the vulnerability of a railroad line, 

a power plant, and a number of adjacent 

farms to flooding and coastal erosion. The 

monitoring data will be informing the adaptation measures that are taken to reduce 

vulnerability.

The innovative approaches to sentinal site 

monitoring provide a framework that can 

be applied to inform the climate change 

management dialogue.

Goals, Strategies & Actions

Gabi Estill/Elkhorn Slough NERR
Climate Adaptation Goals, Strategies & Actions | 71

Knowledge gaps regarding impacts on 

species and ecosystems will need to be 

addressed. Existing research collaborations such as the USGCRP can enable 

natural resource managers and other 

decision makers to focus and prioritize 

research. There are many critical areas 

where increased basic understanding is 

needed to anticipate and help reduce the 

impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, and plants including how climate 

change will alter the effects of pollutants 

and other existing stressors in ecosystems, and how species will respond to 

changes in climatic and non-climatic 

factors. New findings should be rapidly 

incorporated into decision support tools 

(e.g., state-and-transition models) and 

made available to managers, as well as 

into climate change adaptation planning, 

delivery, and evaluation. By improving 

the state of knowledge, managers can 

better develop novel and anticipatory 

adaptation strategies.

The use of models to project potential 

changes in weather patterns and natural 

systems has already generated a great 

deal of useful information to help us 

plan for future climate impacts, especially at large scales. Additional and more 

refined models at temporal and spatial 

scales appropriate to climate adaptation 

objectives established by natural resource 

managers are required. Development of 

models to predict how changes in climate 

variables (e.g., temperature, humidity, 

atmospheric CO2) impact habitat and 

fish, wildlife, and plant abundance and 

distribution is a priority and should 

initially focus on processes that are 

already occurring and that act on short 

(i.e., decadal) time scales.

Goal 5

Increase knowledge and information on 

impacts and responses of fish, wildlife, and 

plants to a changing climate.

The design and delivery of fish, wildlife, and plant climate change 

adaptation programs is also hampered by lack of detailed knowledge 

about specific impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, plants, and 

habitats and their adaptive capacity to respond. 

I

t is important to note that despite a 

growing foundation of information, 

many uncertainties and gaps remain in 

our understanding about the current and 

future impacts of climate change and 

ocean acidification on natural resources 

and ecosystems.

Focused research on developing a clear 

set of indicators that could be used to 

track and assess the impacts of climate 

change and the effectiveness of adaptation efforts over time is still in its infancy 

but has been growing in recent years. 

Additional basic research to develop, 

improve, and integrate information 

from physical monitoring systems, 

satellites, and national weather service 

systems is needed to better understand how the climate is changing. 

The services associated with 

healthy ecosystems, including 

clean water, healthy habitats, 

and desirable living and 

recreational environments are 

invaluable.

USFWS/Larry Jernigan
72 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

5.1.5: Based on priority conservation needs 

identified by resource managers, develop 

national, and as appropriate, regional 

research agendas identifying key high level 

questions for which more fundamental 

research is needed to enable development 

of management applications or decision 

support tools; and facilitate consultation 

among major science funding agencies to 

maximize incorporation of these needs into 

funding opportunities and work plans.

5.1.6: Prioritize research on questions 

relevant to managers of near-term risk 

environments (e.g., low-lying islands, alpine 

systems and high-elevation headwaters, 

coral reefs, and glaciated areas) or highly 

vulnerable species.

5.1.7: Prioritize research and methods 

development for the valuation of ecosystem 

services and the role these services play 

in ameliorating climate change impacts on 

people and communities.

5.1.2: Bring managers and scientists 

together at the appropriate scales to prioritize research needs that address resource 

management objectives considering a 

changing climate.

5.1.3: Encourage agencies with scientific 

assets and expertise to participate in and 

contribute to regional dialogues about 

actions needed to meet management-driven 

science needs.

5.1.4: Participate in research planning for 

relevant programs of agencies (e.g., NSF, 

NOAA, state agencies, and local governments), and intergovernmental forums 

(e.g., Conservation of Arctic Flora and 

Fauna working group of the Arctic Council) 

to ensure inclusion of research relevant 

to missions of agencies and resource 

managers.

Most Americans appreciate the aesthetic 

values that healthy populations of fish, 

wildlife, and plants offer, and many have 

a cultural, recreational, or economic 

association with wildlife and wild places. 

Few, however, fully understand the 

services that well-functioning ecosystems provide to society or what the full 

cost of replacing those services would be. 

Methods should be developed to objectively quantify the value of ecosystem 

services and to understand potential 

impacts from climate change to these 

important services. Once these values 

are quantified, they can be considered 

in better economic decision-making 

processes.

Strategy 5.1: Identify knowledge 

gaps and define research 

priorities via a collaborative 

process among federal, state, 

tribal, private conservation 

organization, and academic 

resource managers and research 

scientists.

Actions

5.1.1: Increase coordination and communication between resource managers 

and natural and social scientists through 

existing forums (e.g., National Science 

Foundation (NSF), USGCRP, NCA, USDA, 

Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Units, 

CSCs, LCCs, JVs, RISAs, Associations of 

Fish and Wildlife Agencies, State Wetlands 

Managers, State Floodplain Managers, 

Coastal States Organization, National 

Estuarine Research Reserve Association, 

and others) to ensure research is connected 

to management needs.

case study

Plants and their pollinators

More than 75 percent of flowering

plants, which provide a bounty of fruits, 

seeds, nuts, and nectar for wildlife, depend 

on pollinators. As the climate changes, 

plants will grow in different places and 

bloom at different times. That raises a 

high-stakes question: Will pollinators 

follow? If they cannot, then vital ecological 

relationships could be severed.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Arizona 

Ecological Services Field Office and the 

Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental 

Research at Northern Arizona University 

are trying to answer this question. In the 

mountains of San Francisco Peaks north of 

Flagstaff, Arizona, teams of researchers are 

conducting extensive surveys of plant-pollinator relationships at five different sites.

This collaborative study is looking across 

ecosystems from the desert foothills up 

to the highest mountain peaks, collecting 

both ecological and climate data, and 

capturing changes in ecological relationships over time.

Goals, Strategies & Actions

USFWS/Laura Perlick
Climate Adaptation Goals, Strategies & Actions | 73

GOAL 5 

PROGRESS CHECK LIST

Working groups are developed that 

share data, expertise, and responsibilities for addressing research 

needs;

Initial inventory of knowledge 

gaps completed;

Research agenda developed;

Research to address priority 

knowledge gaps initiated;

Regional and subregional projections of climate change impacts 

completed;

Protocols and methods for valuing 

ecosystem services developed;

Approaches to improve validity of 

projections of future climate and 

improve linkage of atmospheric/

climate models to ecological impact 

models developed.

5.2.5: Accelerate research on establishing 

the value of ecosystem services and potential impacts to communities from climate 

change (e.g., loss of pollution abatement 

or flood attenuation; climate regulation 

by forests and wetlands through carbon 

sequestration, oxygen production, and CO2

consumption; and pollination by insects, 

birds, and mammals).

5.2.6: Identify pollutants likely to be 

affected by climate change and accelerate 

research on their effects on fish, wildlife, 

and their habitats, including contaminant 

effects that will likely increase vulnerability 

to climate change.

Strategy 5.3: Advance 

understanding of climate change 

impacts and species and 

ecosystem responses through 

modeling.

Actions

5.3.1: Define the suite of physical and 

biological variables and ecological 

processes for which predictive models 

are needed via a collaborative process 

among state, federal, and tribal resource 

managers, scientists, and model 

developers.

5.3.2: Improve modeling of climate change 

impacts on vulnerable species, including 

projected future distributions and the 

probability of persistence.

5.3.3: Develop models that integrate the 

potential effects of climate and non-climate 

stressors on vulnerable species.

5.3.4: Develop and use models of climateimpacted physical and biological variables 

and ecological processes at temporal and 

spatial scales relevant for conservation.

5.3.5: Provide access to current climate 

data and ensure alignment with data 

management and decision support tools at 

agency and departmental levels.

Strategy 5.2: Conduct research 

into ecological aspects of climate 

change, including likely impacts 

and the adaptive capacity of 

species, communities and 

ecosystems, and their associated 

ecosystem services, working 

through existing partnerships or 

new collaborations as needed 

(e.g., USGCRP, NCA, CSCs, RISAs, 

and others).

Actions

5.2.1: Produce regional to subregional 

projections of future climate change impacts 

on physical, chemical, and biological conditions for U.S. ecosystems.

5.2.2: Support basic research on life histories and food web dynamics of fish, wildlife, 

and plants to increase understanding of how 

species are likely to respond to changing 

climate conditions and identify survival 

thresholds.

5.2.3: Identify and address priority climate 

change knowledge gaps and needs (e.g., 

species adaptive capacity, risk and rewards 

of assisted relocation, climate change 

synergy with existing stressors).

5.2.4: Conduct research on the propagation 

and production of native plant materials to 

identify species or genotypes that may be 

resilient to climate change.

bill lynch
74 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

action. Communicating science-based 

information on the socio-economic 

value of ecosystem services to public 

and private decision makers and opinion 

leaders should be accomplished by using 

real examples.

Development and implementation of 

effective adaptation policies and practices 

requires that interested constituencies and key stakeholders understand 

the fundamentals of climate change 

adaptation. Practical education and 

outreach efforts and opportunities for 

participation should be developed and 

implemented whenever possible.

Strategy 6.1: Increase public 

awareness and understanding 

of climate impacts to natural 

resources and ecosystem 

services and the principles of 

climate adaptation at regionallyand culturally-appropriate scales.

Actions

6.1.1: Develop focused outreach efforts and 

materials aimed at local, state, tribal, and 

federal government authorities; land and 

water managers; economic policy decision 

makers; zoning and transportation officials; 

etc. on ecosystem services, climate impacts 

to fish, wildlife, plants, and ecosystems, 

the impacts of other local stressors, and 

the importance of adaptation planning.

6.1.2: Develop outreach efforts and materials to other key audiences, such as the 

private sector (e.g., agriculture, forestry, 

etc.), cultural leaders, and private land 

managers that provide information on 

existing conservation incentive programs.

Goal 6

Engaging stakeholders early 

and repeatedly is key to making 

this Strategy work.

Increase awareness and motivate action 

to safeguard fish, wildlife, and plants in a 

changing climate.

Adaptation efforts will be most successful if they have broad 

support and if key groups and people are motivated to take action 

themselves. Resources should be targeted toward elected officials, 

public and private policy makers, groups that are interested in 

learning more about climate change issues, private landowners, 

and natural resource user groups. 

Helping stakeholders understand the concept of uncertainty and 

decision-making in the context of 

uncertainty are also important and 

integral parts of adaptive management.

Engaging stakeholders early and repeatedly to increase awareness of the threats 

from climate change, to gather input in 

developing appropriate, integrated adaptation responses, and to motivate their 

participation and action is key to making 

this Strategy work.

The concept of ecosystem services is 

gaining traction among elected officials 

and policy makers, but not enough is 

being done to translate the concept into 

Keith Weller/usda

Goals, Strategies & Actions
Climate Adaptation Goals, Strategies & Actions | 75

GOAL 6 

PROGRESS CHECK LIST

Focused outreach to key decision 

makers initiated;

Stakeholder representatives 

engaged in working groups related 

to climate change messaging;

Improved messaging and targeting 

of information on fish, wildlife, and 

plants, ecosystem services, and 

climate change to key audiences 

developed;

Agency-produced educational and 

interpretive materials and papers 

are developed and distributed;

Tools designed to engage citizens 

in monitoring impacts of climate 

change developed;

Educational curricula developed;

Collaborations with zoos, aquaria, 

museums, and botanic gardens 

initiated;

Workshops and communication 

programs increasing awareness 

of climate change related issues 

regarding fish, wildlife, and plants 

across agencies developed;

Effectiveness of communications 

assessed.

6.2.5: Develop educational materials and 

teacher trainings for K-12 classrooms linked 

to state education standards on impacts 

and responses to climate change.

6.2.6: Develop collaborations with zoos, 

museums, aquariums, botanic gardens, 

arboreta, and other organizations and 

universities to increase communication and 

awareness of impacts and responses to 

climate change.

6.2.7: Develop core messaging and recommended strategies to communicate the 

Strategy within participating organizations, 

local associations and clubs (e.g., garden 

clubs), and with the public.

6.2.8: Develop strategy to assess effectiveness of communication efforts and modify 

as appropriate.

Strategy 6.3: Coordinate climate 

change communication efforts 

across jurisdictions.

Actions

6.3.1: Develop, implement, and strengthen 

existing communication efforts between 

federal agencies, with states and tribes 

to increase awareness of the impacts and 

responses to climate change.

6.3.2: Engage employees from multiple 

agencies in key climate change issues by 

expanding existing forums for information 

sharing and idea exchange, and create new 

forums and channels as needed.

6.3.3: Provide access to tools (web-based 

and others) that promote improved collaboration, interactive dialog, and resource 

sharing to minimize duplication of effort 

across jurisdictions.

6.1.3: Identify and partner with key stakeholder groups (e.g., conservation and 

environmental organizations, hunting and 

angling groups, trade associations, outdoor 

manufacturers and retailers) to help develop 

and distribute key climate change and adaptation messages tailored for their interest 

groups as well as the broader public.

6.1.4: Incorporate information about potential climate change impacts to ecosystem 

services in education and outreach 

activities.

6.1.5: Increase public awareness of existing 

habitat conditions and the benefits of 

building resiliency of those habitats.

Strategy 6.2: Engage the public 

through targeted education and 

outreach efforts and stewardship 

opportunities.

Actions

6.2.1: Identify and make opportunities available for public involvement to aid in the 

development of focused outreach materials.

6.2.2: Use public access points, nature 

centers, and hunting and fishing regulation 

guides to inform tourists, visitors, and recreational users of climate change impacts to 

and adaptation strategies for fish, wildlife, 

and plants.

6.2.3: Develop specific programs and/or 

modify existing programs (e.g., bird and 

amphibian surveys) to motivate action 

and engage citizens in monitoring impacts 

of climate change on the landscape 

(e.g., citizen science monitoring for 

detection of invasive species, nature 

center programs, etc.).

6.2.4: Make research and monitoring information regarding climate impacts to species 

and natural systems accessible and easily 

understood to the public and other partners 

(e.g., commercial fisheries, etc.).

USFWS/Pat Hagan
76 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Goal 7 Goal 7

This Strategy identifies actions that natural resource managers 

and others can take to address the impacts of climate change on 

fish, wildlife, and plants and the human uses and benefits that living 

systems provide. One of the most important actions is to reduce the 

negative impacts of existing stressors to help increase the capacity of 

fish, wildlife, and plants to cope with changing climate conditions. 

While this Strategy does not attempt to catalog all of those critical 

efforts, it is important to note that some 

of these existing stressors (such as habitat 

loss, fragmentation, and degradation, 

invasive species, disease, pollution, overharvesting, destructive harvest practices 

(e.g., fisheries bycatch and illegal trade) 

are not only some of the things decision 

makers can control, they are also likely to 

interact with climate change to magnify 

negative impacts on fish, wildlife, and 

plants (Negri and Hoogenboom 2011). 

Indeed, the cumulative effects of these 

existing stressors is already a major threat 

to many species, some of which may not 

survive long enough to have a chance 

of adapting to climate change if existing 

stressors are not adequately addressed. 

Thus, reducing these existing stressors 

is both essential to maintain short-term 

survival for some species, but also may 

be some of the most effective ways to 

increase resilience of fish, wildlife, and 

plants in a changing climate. Where 

possible, reducing non-climate stressors 

should be approached with a changing 

climate in mind to prioritize actions and 

discourage maladaptive decisions.

Continued application of ecosystem 

based approaches to natural resource 

management is also a key step in this 

process given the scale and scope of 

climate change impacts on natural and 

human communities. The importance 

of conserving, restoring, and connecting 

suitable habitats as a way to enhance fish, 

wildlife, and plant resiliency has been 

discussed previously, and reducing and 

mitigating the ongoing degradation associated with human development such as 

pollution and loss of open space is also 

critical. Opportunities for collaboration 

should be actively pursued with land-use 

planners as well as major sectors such 

as agriculture, transportation, and water 

resource interests to identify common 

concerns and shared solutions.

As described previously, invasive species 

are pervasive in our environment and 

becoming more so every day. There 

are no easy ways to combat invasive 

species, but coordinating efforts across 

jurisdictions, international borders and 

among terrestrial and aquatic resource 

managers and citizen scientists can help. 

Greater coordination in stepping up 

efforts at prevention, enhancing early 

detection and rapid response programs, 

and avoiding accidental movement of 

invaders is essential (National Invasive 

Species Council 2008). Moreover, 

Addressing existing stressors 

has been the focus of natural 

resource conservation and 

management efforts for 

decades, often with notable 

successes.

Reduce non-climate stressors to help fish, 

wildlife, plants, and ecosystems adapt to a 

changing climate.

Goals, Strategies & Actions usFWS/Ryan Hagerty
Climate Adaptation Goals, Strategies & Actions | 77

Actions

7.2.1: Work with local and regional land-use, 

water resource, and coastal and marine 

spatial planners to identify potentially 

conflicting needs and opportunities to minimize ecosystem degradation resulting from 

development and land and water use.

7.2.2: Work with farmers and ranchers to 

develop and implement livestock management practices to reduce and reverse 

habitat degradation and to protect regeneration of vegetation.

7.2.3: Reduce existing pollution and contaminants and increase monitoring of air and 

water pollution as necessary.

7.2.4: Work with water resource managers 

to identify, upgrade, or remove outdated 

sewer and stormwater infrastructure to 

reduce water contamination.

7.2.5: Increase restoration, enhancement, 

and conservation of riparian zones and 

buffers in agricultural and urban areas to 

minimize non-point source pollution.

7.2.6: Work with federal, state, and tribal 

environmental regulators to address potential pollution threats, including impairments 

to water quality.

7.2.7: Reduce impacts of impervious 

surfaces and stormwater runoff in urban 

areas to improve water quality, groundwater 

recharge, and hydrologic function.

7.1.6: Consider application of offsite habitat 

banking linked to climate change habitat 

priorities as a tool to compensate for 

unavoidable onsite impacts and to promote 

habitat conservation or restoration in desirable locations.

7.1.7: Consider market-based incentives 

that encourage conservation and restoration of ecosystems for the full range 

of ecosystem services including carbon 

storage.

7.1.8: Minimize impacts from alternative 

energy development by focusing siting 

options on already disturbed or degraded 

areas.

7.1.9: Identify options for redesign and 

removal of existing structures or barriers 

where there is the greatest potential to 

restore natural processes.

Strategy 7.2: Slow, mitigate, and 

reverse where feasible ecosystem 

degradation from anthropogenic 

sources through land/oceanuse planning, water resource 

planning, pollution abatement, 

and the implementation of best 

management practices.

decisions regarding increasing connectivity and restoring corridors will have to 

be weighed with the threat of invasives 

and the consequences of choosing one 

adaptation strategy over another. In 

addition to the threats from invasive 

species, climate stresses are causing 

some native pests and pathogens as 

well as pollution exposure to become 

increasingly problematic and this will 

need to be considered when management 

plans are developed.

Strategy 7.1: Slow and reverse 

habitat loss and fragmentation.

Actions

7.1.1: Work with local land-use planners, 

flood-plain administrators, and others to 

identify shared interests and potential 

conflicts in reducing and reversing habitat 

fragmentation and loss through established 

planning and zoning processes.

7.1.2: Work with farmers and ranchers to 

apply the incentive programs in the conservation title of the Farm Bill as well as the 

landowner tools under the ESA and other 

programs to minimize conversion of habitats, restore marginal agricultural lands to 

habitat, and increase riparian buffer zones.

7.1.3: Provide landowners with appropriate 

incentives for conservation and restoration 

of key habitats, such as conservation easement tax incentive programs, designed to 

protect private lands of high habitat connectivity value under climate change.

7.1.4: Work with water resource managers 

to enhance design and siting criteria for 

water resources infrastructure to reduce 

impacts and restore connectivity in floodplains and aquatic habitats.

7.1.5: Work with local and regional water 

management agencies to evaluate historical 

water quantities and base flows and develop 

water management options to protect or 

restore aquatic habitats.

Case study

Fighting the spread of water hyacinth

Introduced into the United States in 

the late 1890s from South America, water 

hyacinth has spread rapidly across the 

southeastern United States, and today is 

already a major pest. This floating plant 

produces vast, thick mats that clog waterways, crowding out native plants and 

making boating, fishing, and swimming 

almost impossible.

Because water hyacinth cannot survive 

when winter temperatures drop below 

freezing, climate change will only make 

the problem worse. Rising temperatures 

will allow this pest to invade new areas, 

and the plant will likely spread north. 

Fortunately, there are some effective 

measures for fighting invasions of water 

hyacinth, such as utilizing weevils along 

with some herbicides (Mallya et al. 2001). 

But these steps must be taken before the 

plant gets established, emphasizing the vital 

importance of planning for invasions projected 

in a changing climate and constantly monitoring vulnerable ecosystems for the first 

telltale signs of such invasions.

Phil Whitehouse
78 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

GOAL 7 

PROGRESS CHECK LIST

Regional and local land-use, water 

resource, coastal, and marine 

planners engaged;

Collaboration with farmers and 

ranchers to review/revise livestock 

management practices begun;

Nationwide inventory of outdated 

legacy infrastructure initiated;

Disruptive floodplain infrastructure 

reduced/removed;

Coordinated invasive species 

and disease monitoring system 

established;

Multiple barriers to invasive species 

introduction in place;

Strong import screening protocols 

established;

Coordinated national invasives 

management actions implemented;

Pollution/contaminant monitoring 

improved;

Destructive capture practices 

identified and reduced.

7.3.4: Apply risk assessment and scenario 

planning to identify actions and prioritize 

responses to invasive species that pose 

the greatest threats to natural ecosystems.

7.3.5: Implement existing national, state 

and local strategies and programs for 

rapid response to contain, control, or 

eradicate invasive species, and develop 

new strategies as needed.

7.3.6: Assess risks and vulnerability to 

identify high priority areas and/or species 

for monitoring of invasive species and 

success of control methods.

7.3.7: Monitor invasive species and pathogens associated with fish, wildlife, and plant 

species for increased understanding of 

distributions and to minimize introductions.

7.3.8: Apply integrated management 

practices, share innovative control methodologies, and take corrective actions when 

necessary to manage fish, wildlife, and 

plant diseases and invasives.

7.3.9: Work with federal, state, regional, 

and county agricultural interests to identify 

potentially conflicting needs and opportunities to minimize ecosystem degradation 

resulting from pests, pathogens, and invasive species eradication, suppression, and 

control efforts.

Strategy 7.4: Reduce destructive 

capture practices (e.g., fisheries 

bycatch, destructive fishing gear), 

over-harvesting and illegal trade 

to help increase fish, wildlife, and 

plant adaptation.

Actions

7.4.1: Reduce the unintentional capture 

(such as fisheries bycatch) of species in 

fishing and other capture activities.

7.2.8: Reduce ground and surface water 

withdrawals in areas experiencing drought 

and/or increased evapotranspiration.

7.2.9: Promote water conservation, reduce 

water use, and promote increased water 

quality via proper waste disposal.

7.2.10: Develop and implement protocols for considering carbon sequestration 

and storage services of natural habitats in 

management decisions.

7.2.11: Incorporate the recommendations and actions from the National Action 

Plan for Managing Freshwater Resources 

in a Changing Climate into water resource 

planning.

7.2.12: Consider the impact of logging 

practices on fire risk and ecosystem 

diversity and function.

Strategy 7.3: Use, evaluate, and 

as necessary, improve existing 

programs to prevent, control, and 

eradicate invasive species and 

manage pathogens.

Actions

7.3.1: Use, integrate, and implement 

existing pest and pathogen risk assessment 

methodologies for imported organisms and 

establish appropriate regulations to prevent 

deliberate importations of pests, pathogens, 

or other species that are predicted to be 

harmful or invasive.

7.3.2: Employ a multiple barriers approach 

to detect and contain incoming and established invasive species, including monitoring 

at points of origin and points of entry for 

shipments of goods and materials into the 

United States and for trans-shipment within 

the country. Utilize education, regulation, 

and risk management tools (e.g., the Hazard 

Analysis and Critical Control Point process).

7.3.3: Develop national standards for 

collecting and reporting invasive species 

data to facilitate information sharing and 

management response.

7.4.2: Implement the 2011 U.S. National 

Bycatch Report recommendations (NMFS 

2011) to increase information of bycatch 

levels, identify fisheries and/or species with 

potential bycatch concerns, and improve 

monitoring of bycatch levels over time.

7.4.3: Reduce negative impacts of capture 

practices and gear on important habitats for 

fish, wildlife, and plants.

7.4.4: Determine sustainable harvest levels 

in changing climate, and design, implement, and evaluate management plans and 

practices to eliminate over-harvest of fish, 

wildlife, and plants.

7.4.5: Increase efforts to monitor and 

reduce illegal species trade in the United 

States.

Goals, Strategies & Actions
Opportunities for Multiple Sectors | 79

CH.4 Opportunities for Multiple

Sectors

Climate change poses significant challenges for 

more than our nation’s ecosystems. Its impacts 

also will be felt in cities and towns, and in sectors 

such as agriculture, energy, transportation and other 

infrastructure, housing, and water resources. The 

anticipated impacts to those sectors have been well 

documented and the threat of climate change has 

already prompted important adaptation efforts.

Chicago is installing “green” roofs that put vegetation on top of buildings 

and “cool” pavement that reflects light 

to tamp down anticipated heat waves 

(Hayhoe and Wuebbles 2010). Keene, 

New Hampshire, has upgraded stormwater systems and other infrastructure 

after being hit by devastating floods (City 

of Keene, New Hampshire 2007). Native 

Americans are moving entire villages in 

Alaska and making trout habitat more 

resilient in Michigan (Buehler 2011). 

Overall, at least 17 states have or are 

developing climate adaptation plans. At 

the federal level, adaptation efforts are 

being coordinated by the ICCATF and are 

described in the October 2011 Progress 

Report of the Interagency Climate Change 

Adaptation Task Force (CEQ 2011).

All of these affected interests will respond 

to climate change impacts in their own 

way, and the decisions made in these 

sectors will ultimately impact our nation’s 

fish, wildlife, and plants. At times, adaptation efforts taken by these sectors can 

conflict with the needs of ecosystems 

(maladaptation). For example, southwestern cities diversifying their water 

supplies may take vital water away from 

wildlife and farmers. But far more often, 

climate change adaptation can benefit 

multiple sectors. Restoring wetlands 

to provide more resilient habitats also 

can improve water quality and slow 

floodwaters helping downstream cities. 

Protecting coastal ecosystems also helps 

protect communities and industries from 

rising sea level along the coast. Moreover, 

research on the economics of climate 

adaptation shows that it can be far 

cheaper to invest in becoming more resilient now than to pay for damages caused 

by climate change later (ECA 2009).

In working to reduce climate change 

impacts on fish, wildlife, and plants, it 

It is important to consider 

not only the impacts of other 

sectors on species and their 

ecosystems, but to look for 

opportunities for coordinated 

adaptation strategies that 

provide co-benefits.

USFWS/Joshua Winchell
80 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

1 | Improve the consideration of impacts to fish, wildlife, and plants in the 

development of sector-specific climate adaptation strategies.

2 | Enhance coordination between sectors and natural resource managers, 

land-use planners, and decision makers regarding climate change adaptation.

3 | Use integrated planning to engage all levels of government (local, state, 

federal, and tribal) and multiple stakeholders in multi-sector planning.

4 | Make best available science on the impact of climate change on fish, wildlife, 

and plants accessible and useable for planning and decision-making across all 

sectors.

5 | Explicitly consider natural resource adaptation in sector-specific climate 

adaptation planning.

6 | Improve, develop, and deploy decision support tools, technologies, and best 

management practices that incorporate climate change information to reduce 

impacts on fish, wildlife, and plants.

7 | Assess the need for, and the utility of, expanding compensatory mitigation 

requirements for projects that reduce ecosystem resilience.

is important to consider not only the 

impacts of other sectors on these species 

and their ecosystems, but to look for 

opportunities for coordinated adaptation 

strategies that provide co-benefits. These 

sectors can take actions that also reduce 

non-climate stressors on ecosystems. For 

instance, precisely matching fertilizer 

amounts to the differing needs of each 

section of a field can cut overall fertilizer 

use and nutrient runoff, thus reducing 

the algal blooms that stress aquatic 

ecosystems and increase their vulnerability to climate change (e.g., increasing 

water temperatures).

It is outside the scope of this Strategy

to describe in detail the climate change 

impacts on various sectors or their adaptation needs. Instead, this chapter briefly 

describes relevant climate impacts and 

recommends actions for managers in 

these sectors to promote co-benefits and 

ensure that the needs of fish, wildlife, 

and plants are considered in their climate 

adaptation efforts.

Additional resources on Impacts to Other Sectors

National Action Plan: Priorities for Managing Water Resources in a Changing 

Climate (ICCATF 2011)

The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, 

and biodiversity in the United States (CCSP 2008d)

Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States

(CCSP 2007)

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and 

Infrastructure: 

Gulf Coast Study, Phase I (CCSP 2008b)

Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region (CCSP 2009a)

The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment (Climate Impacts Group 2009)

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI 2011)

California Climate Adaptation Strategy (CAS) (CNRA 2009)

There are seven overarching climate adaptation strategies, common to all 

sectors, that can benefit fish, wildlife, and plant adaptation:

Opportunities for Multiple Sectors
Opportunities for Multiple Sectors | 81

and retired marginal land to all three 

agricultural land uses. Expanding crop 

production in this way will likely increase 

pressures on plant and wildlife species 

that may also be confronting pressures 

resulting from a changing climate. Given 

the managed nature of agricultural lands 

and the likely expansion of cropland into 

grassland areas, it is critical to identify strategies to aid plant and wildlife 

adaptation in agriculture-dominated 

landscapes.

Maintaining viable grassland species 

populations requires adopting more 

wildlife friendly agricultural practices, 

managing the intensity of agricultural 

production, and selectively retiring 

some lands from production. Existing 

programs offer incentives for producers. 

For example, the Environmental Quality 

Incentives Program offers cost share 

for wildlife friendly livestock fencing. 

Other practices, like haying and grazing 

systems that have schedules sensitive to 

bird nesting seasons and integrated pest 

management, can make crop production more compatible with wildlife and 

pollinators.

Using long-term contracts and permanent easements, other programs 

encourage landowners to take and keep 

land out of crop production when doing 

so confers large conservation benefits. 

Two programs that are particularly 

relevant to grasslands are the Grasslands 

Reserve Program (GRP) and CRP. The 

former offers annual contract payments 

or lump-sum easement payment to 

landowners who want to maintain 

or enhance viable grasslands and the 

latter offers annual contract payments 

to landowners who convert cropland 

to grassland. Long-term contracts are 

particularly well-suited to climate change 

Australia, Asia, or South America in the 

future. A successful climate change adaptation strategy for grassland species must 

contend with the global market forces 

and the associated policy responses 

that generate the returns to agricultural production. This represents a more 

formidable challenge than adapting 

public lands management to respond to a 

new stressor.

Agricultural production is an economic 

activity that is uniquely sensitive to 

changes in precipitation and temperature and these agronomic factors are 

predicted to be more variable in a 

changing climate. Producers and governments will seek to mitigate the increased 

risk of shortages due to crop failure by 

increasing or encouraging increased 

production. If new technology or more 

nutrients and water cannot be used to 

satisfy increasing demand for food, 

open space will be used with increasing 

intensity for agricultural production, 

with pastureland converting to cropland, 

rangeland to pastureland and cropland, 

4.1 Agriculture

Agricultural production is the predominant land use on the American 

landscape. Virtually all crop (390 

million acres) and pasture land (119 

million acres), as well as a large fraction of rangeland (409 million acres), 

is privately owned by more than two 

million landowners and provides a livelihood to them and those who rent from 

them. Climate change aside, grassland 

species in the United States will feel more 

pressure over the next century as food 

production responds to greater demand 

from a larger global population and as 

farming technologies expand the range 

for planting annual crops both north and 

west. Further changes can be expected 

when drought, flood, or other climatic 

disruption affects crop production in 

Irrigated agriculture relies heavily on surfacewater diversions and groundwater pumping. 

Projected climate changes include less 

snowpack which would mean less natural 

springtime replenishment of water storage in 

the surface-water reservoirs.

john curley
82 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Case Study

Lesser prairie-chicken in a changing climate

concerns because they can be used as 

“rolling easements,” permitting the landscape configuration of habitat to evolve 

over time. The CRP has been credited 

for providing habitat and increasing 

populations of waterfowl and grassland 

birds that had seen long-term population declines prior to the program. Both 

programs employ critical elements of 

climate adaptation strategies such as 

outreach, technical assistance, and 

financial incentives to help landowners 

restore and conserve grassland ecosystems and help to mitigate the effects of 

climate change.

Adaptation strategies for agriculture 

also benefiting natural resources

» Encourage producers to take sensitive lands out of crop production for 

extended periods of time and restore 

wildlife habitat on these lands.

» Encourage producers to maintain 

grassland habitat.

» Encourage producers to adopt agricultural production and land use 

strategies that are resilient under 

changing conditions and that benefit 

agriculture, fish, and wildlife.

» Improve estimates of ecosystem 

services to better link conservation 

compensation with the environmental 

services producers provide.

» Encourage producers to adopt 

wildlife-friendly practices.

The lesser prairie-chicken, which 

resides mainly in the grasslands of the 

southern Great Plains region, is a species 

in trouble. The conversion of native rangelands to cropland, decline in habitat quality 

due to herbicide use, petroleum and 

mineral extraction activities, and excessive 

grazing of rangelands by livestock have all 

contributed to a significant decline in population leading to its Candidate status under 

the federal Endangered Species Act 

(NRCS 1999).

Climate change is expected to make the 

bird’s plight worse. Climate change models 

project that temperatures in the lesser 

prairie-chicken’s range will climb by about 

5 °F and that precipitation will decrease 

by more than one inch per year by 2060 

(USGCRP 2009). Such changes would likely 

harm the lesser prairie-chicken’s chances 

of survival.

The good news is that simple management 

steps can make a big difference. Under 

existing USDA conservation programs, 

farmers and ranchers are compensated 

to take land out of production to create 

wildlife habitat. In fact, a landscapescale geospatial analysis has shown 

that restoring native prairie grasses and 

sagebrush on 10 percent of land enrolled 

in CRP, if properly targeted, could offset 

the projected population decline of lesser 

prairie-chicken from climate change 

(McLachlan et al. 2011).

Greg Kramos / USFWS

Opportunities for Multiple Sectors
Opportunities for Multiple Sectors | 83

4.2 Energy

Climate-related changes to fish and wildlife habitat will occur simultaneous to 

changes that are occurring in the energy 

sector. Some of these changes will have 

clear implications for energy production and use (CCSP 2007). Energy usage 

patterns are expected to change in the 

United States, as are population demographics that drive regional energy 

demand and seasonal energy needs 

for heating and cooling (CCSP 2007, 

USGCRP 2009). For instance, average 

warming can be expected to increase 

energy requirements for cooling and 

reduce energy requirements for heating 

(USGCRP 2009).

In addition to challenges in managing 

consumer demand for electricity, 

particularly during peak load periods, 

changes in the physical environment 

may affect existing generation capacity 

and constrain the siting of new energy 

generation capacity (CCSP 2007). For 

example, changes in precipitation and 

snow pack will affect the seasonality and 

overall generating capacity of hydroelectric power, and decreased freshwater 

availability and increased surface water 

temperatures will affect water-cooled 

thermoelectric power plants in some 

regions (USGCRP 2009). Coastal power 

plants in some regions could be subject 

to climate-related impacts from erosion, 

inundation, storm surges, and river 

flooding as sea level rises and precipitation increases, especially during severe 

weather events (USGCRP 2009). Changes 

in the intensity or frequency of severe 

storms could also affect the reliability of 

transmission infrastructure (CCSP 2007, 

USGCRP 2009).

Changes in the production and use 

of fuels for transportation, heating, 

and cooling must also be considered, 

including the increased production of 

biofuels. Coastal (and offshore) facilities and infrastructure for producing 

and distributing liquid transportation 

fuels could be subject to similar impacts 

as coastal power plants (CCSP 2007, 

USGCRP 2009). Changes in population 

demographics could also affect levels of 

consumption and the location of infrastructure associated with the delivery of 

fuels (CCSP 2007).

Decisions made within the energy 

sector affect fish, wildlife, and plants, 

as do decisions in the natural resource 

management sector affect the energy 

sector. There is considerable uncertainty 

as to how many species of fish, wildlife, and plants will respond to climate 

Development of more efficient clean 

sources of energy remains a challenge, 

but is becoming increasingly important in a 

changing climate.

change effects. The migration of species, 

particularly those listed as threatened 

or endangered, or the change in status 

of currently healthy populations under 

future environmental stressors, could 

affect the operation and siting of existing 

and new energy infrastructure. The 

sources of energy that are used influence the rate of GHG emissions, as well 

as the level of stress placed on local fish, 

wildlife, and plant populations along the 

supply chain. For this reason, it is important that efforts within the energy sector 

and natural resources management sector 

are better informed.

USFWS/Rachel Molenda
84 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

plants in a number of ways. In response 

to rising sea levels and extreme precipitation events, communities may develop 

engineered structures, such as seawalls 

and levees, to protect critical assets from 

potential inundation. These strategies, in 

turn, may adversely affect surrounding 

landscapes, resulting in habitat loss, 

and the inability of fish, wildlife, and 

plants to respond to climate-based 

stressors. In the longer term, human 

populations will likely shift to areas with 

ample natural amenities while people 

that remain in areas without necessary resources will exert more effort to 

import those resources (CCSP 2008a). 

The shifts in human population and the 

use of resources can be expected to strain 

the ecosystem services provided by the 

natural environment. Increased human 

demand for water resources will likely 

reduce water availability for fish, wildlife, 

and plants.

The availability of culturally, commercially, and recreationally important 

species for human uses (e.g., fishing, 

hunting, watching) will also change 

as species distributions respond to a 

changing climate and human population 

pressures. Availability of those species 

will ultimately affect subsistence and 

commercial use, recreation, tourism, and 

the economy. Also affecting the economy 

will be the response of harvestable 

resources (e.g., timber, fish) to a changing 

climate. Decisions made regarding 

development can affect fish, wildlife, and plant populations by reducing 

habitat availability, fragmenting habitats, 

and increasing multiple stressors. And 

conversely, development will be affected 

by the presence of species listed under 

the ESA, the number of which will likely 

grow due to climate change.

(U.S. Census Bureau 2010). Sea level rise 

and changes in temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events will 

have the greatest impact on society and 

urban centers. Physical damage from 

storms, flooding, and sea level rise will 

threaten infrastructure and development, 

particularly along the coast. Changing 

temperatures and precipitation patterns 

will affect the built environment as well 

as resource availability (e.g., water). 

Increased temperatures and forest fires 

will reduce air quality and threaten life 

and property (McMahon 1999).

Human responses to climate change in 

the urban environment are expected to 

take one of two general paths: fortification or relocation. Each of these broad 

strategies will affect fish, wildlife, and 

Adaptation strategies for energy 

development also benefiting natural 

resources

» Increase consultation and better align 

natural resource management and 

energy sector climate change adaptation strategies and activities, including 

vulnerability assessments.

» Incentivize the siting of new large 

energy projects in previously disturbed 

areas or areas that have the least impact 

to fish, wildlife, and plants. Avoid areas 

of high ecological vulnerability and 

areas with limited water availability 

and competing water demands.

» Research and develop energy technologies that minimize climate change 

impacts to fish, wildlife, and plants.

» Use local and regionally appropriate 

approaches that incorporate adaptive 

management principals to develop 

and site renewable energy resources 

to reduce vulnerability and enhance 

the resilience of local and regional 

ecosystems.

4.3 Housing and 

Urbanization

Since U.S. cities, towns and communities 

developed with an assumption of relatively stable climatic conditions, many 

U.S. municipalities and urban centers 

are at risk from the changing climate. 

This risk is exacerbated by a burgeoning 

urban population; 80.7 percent of the 

U.S. population now resides in urban 

areas, an increase of 12.1 percent 

since 2000 (U.S. Census Bureau 2012). 

Further, 30 percent of the U.S. population 

lives in a “coastline county”—and population along coasts continues to increase 

Human responses to climate change in the 

urban environment will likely include both 

fortification and relocation, impacting wildlife 

and natural systems in a variety of ways.

Human responses to climate 

change in the urban environment 

are expected to take one of two 

general paths: fortification or 

relocation. 

Opportunities for Multiple Sectors
Opportunities for Multiple Sectors | 85

case study

Stormwater runoff

Adaptation strategies for community 

planning also benefiting natural 

resources

» Provide opportunities to engage many 

different stakeholders in land use and 

resource use decisions that incorporate 

climate change considerations.

» Anticipate changes in human demographic patterns in response to climate 

change, identify potential conflicts 

with the protection of fish, wildlife, and 

plants, and develop possible solutions.

» Continue current research on the 

valuation of ecosystem services so 

that communities can make betterinformed decisions regarding land use 

and resource protection.

» Educate the public about ecosystems, 

ecosystem services, and anticipated 

climate changes, and prepare the public 

for projected changes.

» Develop multi-objective strategies 

to identify landscapes which sustain 

ecological values and provide human 

benefits through ecosystem services 

(e.g., urban green space which provides 

recreational and cooling values; restoration of native habitats and species; 

and promotion of native and drought 

tolerant species in development 

standards).

» Provide tools and methods that 

encourage communities to analyze 

the potential costs and benefits of 

adaptation strategies (i.e., fortify, 

accommodate, relocate) and their 

impact on surrounding habitats.

» Incorporate habitat migration potential 

into land-use planning and protect key 

corridors for species movement.

» Review federal programs to encourage 

buyouts and other mitigation measures 

in areas vulnerable to recurring climate 

change impacts.

A major source of pollution related 

to development along the coastline is 

stormwater runoff. Runoff degrades water 

quality, making it an important stressor 

affecting resilience and sustainability of 

coastal habitats and species. As a result 

of increasing development, impervious 

surfaces that do not allow rain to penetrate the soils (such as parking lots, roads 

and rooftops) increase the amount, peak 

flow, and velocity of stormwater runoff, 

carrying pollutants into waterways and 

scouring streambanks. Changing precipitation patterns, especially increased 

frequency and intensity of heavy rains, will 

have a compounding effect on the amount 

of stormwater released into surrounding 

ecosystems.

Many tools are being developed to help 

land managers make informed decisions. 

For example, The National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration’s National 

Centers for Coastal Ocean Science at 

Hollings Marine Laboratory has developed a stormwater runoff-modeling tool to 

project the local impacts of development 

in a changing climate (Blair et al. 2011). 

Urbanized watersheds were compared with 

less-developed suburban and undeveloped forested watersheds to examine the 

relationship between land-use change and 

stormwater runoff and how this will be 

amplified under climate change.

This user-friendly and flexible tool provides 

a mechanism to quantify the volume of 

runoff and peak flow estimates under 

different land use and climate change 

scenarios. It provides an improved understanding of the impacts of development on 

stormwater runoff as well as the potential 

impacts associated with climate change 

in urbanized communities. Moreover, 

this research provides coastal resource 

managers with a tool to protect coastal 

habitat resiliency from both non-climatic 

stressors such as development as well 

as climate-associated stressors such as 

changing patterns of precipitation.

Altered runoff predicted 

by climate change 

has the potential to 

increase the volume 

of stormwater that can 

contribute to pollution, 

as well as drainage and 

flooding problems.

raymond shobe
86 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

case study

Interagency cooperative conservation

While not applicable to all transportation agencies, Eco-Logical: An Ecosystem 

Approach to Developing Infrastructure Projects is an example of one existing robust 

program approach to help address ecosystem and species conservation given a changing 

climate and offers a framework for achieving greater interagency cooperative conservation. 

Eco-Logical is an environmental review toolkit designed to help agencies join in partnerships as catalysts for greater stakeholder cooperation and coordination through promoting 

a Strategic Habitat Conservation and an ecosystem approach to species and ecosystem 

conservation, including the integration of climate change into the conservation strategy. It 

is goal driven, and based on a collaboratively developed vision of desired future conditions 

that integrates ecological, economic, and social factors. It is applied within a geographic 

framework defined primarily by ecological boundaries (Brown 2006).

Natural resource and transportation 

agencies should work together to develop 

best practices that address the potential to use bridges, culverts, and roadway 

design to mitigate specific impacts such 

as sea level rise, precipitation, and stormwater on flora and fauna. For example, 

one method to deal with more intense 

precipitation events and resulting 

flooding is to increase the diameter of 

culverts. Larger culverts can, in some 

cases, also help to improve the ability 

of the culvert to serve as a passage for 

mammals, amphibians, and fish. Where 

both goals are being considered, the 

passage requirements of various animals 

and the geometry and geomorphology 

of the given stream should be taken into 

account in culvert design. As another 

example, protecting barrier islands and 

wetlands benefits both the natural environment and also reduces the effects of 

storms on the land and transportation 

infrastructure (roads) and operations.

The Transportation Research Board has 

recommended a number of operational 

and design adaptation strategies for 

transportation systems responding to a 

variety of climate impacts.

is initiated with a lifetime of 20 to 40 

years, advice and information from 

natural resource agencies is needed to 

ensure the right plantings for the future 

climate, not just current native species. 

These conservation plans and strategies 

would be used by Metropolitan Planning 

Organizations and state Departments 

of Transportation, airport planners and 

other transportation agencies in the 

development of transportation plans to 

avoid potential ecosystem impacts, allow 

advanced planning to minimize or avoid 

impacts, and to promote habitat resilience. Transportation agencies also could 

use these conservation strategies in the 

project development process to mitigate project effects in a more predictable, 

effective, and efficient manner.

The use of advanced conservation 

strategies and conservation banks by 

transportation agencies should continue 

to be encouraged. However, when such 

advanced practices are deployed, natural 

resource and transportation agencies 

should collaborate on sharing and identifying changing land use patterns to best 

inform locations for advanced conservation and banking decisions.

4.4 Transportation 

and Infrastructure

Transportation planners, owners, and 

operators face many of the same impacts 

and challenges of climate change as 

natural resource managers. Impacts of 

particular concern include rising sea level 

as well as increases in very hot days and 

heat waves, Arctic temperatures, intense 

precipitation events, and hurricane intensity (CCSP 2008b). While climate change 

poses threats to existing infrastructure, 

a changing climate likely will create new 

opportunities for increased Arctic transit 

or reduce operational costs for snow 

removal and maintenance.

Climate change will need to be considered in future infrastructure design, as 

projects are designed to stand the test of 

time and are built with long timeframes 

and local conditions in mind. Thus, it is 

necessary to understand how the impacts 

of climate change on local conditions are 

expected to change during the project’s 

lifetime. Early and coordinated planning 

can allow transportation professionals 

and natural resource managers to design 

systems such that the goals of both can 

be met given a changing climate.

Natural resource and transportation 

agencies would benefit from increased 

collaboration on anticipated changes 

in flora and fauna patterns and potential ways to address them. Regional 

habitat conservation plans and strategies developed by resource agencies 

would provide information and a better 

understanding of the types of species 

that will be supported in the future. 

For example, if a transportation project 

Opportunities for Multiple Sectors
Opportunities for Multiple Sectors | 87

Adaptation strategies for transportation 

also benefiting natural resources

» Strengthen interagency and stakeholder cooperation and coordination, 

particularly between transportation 

and natural resource planners and 

managers.

» Identify changing transportation 

demands resulting from climate change 

and the implications to infrastructure 

development.

» Use the best available habitat conservation plans to develop strategies 

associated with transportation projects 

that take into account climate change 

impacts to habitats and species.

» Develop best management practices 

(BMPs) and best designs for transportation projects to accommodate 

climate change effects and incorporate 

conservation needs at the same time.

4.5 Water Resources

Water resources are shared by fish, wildlife, plants, and many different human 

interests (e.g., agriculture, drinking water, 

manufacturing, energy). The balance 

of use and consumption will ultimately 

determine the quantity and quality of 

water available for species and ecosystems. Already under stress from climate 

change, the nation’s fish, wildlife, and 

plant populations would be further 

stressed by a lack of available, high 

quality water resources. All decisions 

made regarding water resources will 

have a direct influence on the quantity 

and quality of habitat that supports both 

aquatic and terrestrial species.

Many of the impacts described in Section 

2.3.6: Inland Water Ecosystems apply to 

other aspects of water resource management beyond fish, wildlife, and plants. 

Rising stream temperatures, altered 

precipitation patterns, reduced snowpack and earlier snowmelt, and saltwater 

intrusion are expected to impact the 

management of water supply, water 

quality, and water use. Impacts on water 

resources will vary between regions, as 

precipitation is anticipated to increase 

in certain areas, decrease in others, and 

overall become more variable with more 

severe drought and heavier rainfall, 

often occurring in the same area. Past 

water levels and precipitation patterns 

will no longer serve as indicators of 

future conditions as climate change 

creates conditions outside of historical 

parameters (CCSP 2008d).

Climate change impacts and adaptation needs for the water resources sector 

are described in much more detail in 

the recently published National Action 

Plan: Priorities for Managing Freshwater 

Resources in a Changing Climate (hereafter Freshwater Action Plan) (ICCATF 

2011), which establishes 24 priority 

actions for federal agencies in managing 

freshwater resources in a changing 

climate. The Freshwater Action Plan

identifies “ensuring adequate water 

supplies; protecting human life, health, 

and property; and protecting the quality 

of freshwater resources” as major challenges (ICCATF 2011). The water 

resources management community can 

build resilience to both climate and 

Lake Mead is the largest reservoir in the 

United States in maximum water capacity 

but severe drought has caused water levels 

to drop.

non-climate stressors by using strategies that incorporate green infrastructure 

and watershed-based approaches that 

use the ecosystem services provided 

by fish, wildlife, and plants. Living 

resources can also serve as bio-indicators 

of water quality or perform biofiltration, thereby improving local water 

quality and increasing the value of those 

water resources. Additionally, riparian 

zones and wetlands have been shown to 

improve water quality, reduce flooding, 

and sequester CO2.

The Freshwater Action Plan (ICCATF 

2011) provides the following recommendations that can assist the water resources 

sector in ensuring the continued protection of fish, wildlife, and plant resources:

Adaptation strategies for water resource 

management also benefiting natural 

resources

» Establish a planning process that 

includes multiple levels of government, prioritization of challenges, and 

considerations for other resources.

» Improve water resources and climate 

change information for decisionmaking to help move decisions beyond 

a reliance on past conditions.

» Strengthen assessment of vulnerability 

of water resources to climate change.

» Expand water use efficiency, conservation, productivity, and substitution to 

reduce overall demand of water.

» Support integrated water resources 

management through coordinated 

adaptive management.

» Support training and outreach to build 

response capability using cross-disciplinary education, instruction, and 

training while focusing on solutions 

integrated across multiple sectors.

richard wasserman
88 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

CH.5 Integration & Implementation

This first national-scale effort identifies the major 

strategies and initial actions needed to help our 

valuable living resources and the communities that 

depend on them address the challenges of climate 

change. Although the Strategy identifies some of the 

essential actions that can be taken or initiated in the 

next five to ten years, its success relies on additional 

planning and action by federal, tribal, state, and local 

governments and many partners.

5.1 Strategy Integration

The Strategy builds upon and complements many existing climate adaptation 

efforts. Continuation and expansion of 

these efforts is critical to achieving the 

goals of this Strategy.

First, many local governments and 

states have already begun to develop 

adaptation plans, either through their 

local land-use planning efforts, within 

their state fish and wildlife agencies, 

or more broadly across state government. For example, Washington State 

released the Washington State Integrated 

Climate Change Response Strategy in 

December 2011, which explains the 

climate change adaptation priorities and 

potential strategies and actions to address 

those concerns. Many other states have 

developed similar efforts, such as Alaska’s 

Climate Change Strategy released in 2010 

and the California Climate Adaptation 

Strategy released in 2009. The number 

of state resource agencies with climate 

vulnerability and adaptation efforts 

underway is increasing, and this Strategy

can serve as a resource for states as well 

as local governments, tribes, federal 

agencies, and others.

Second, many multi-governmental and 

non-governmental partnerships already 

conduct sophisticated resource management planning that can incorporate 

climate change. Two examples are JVs4

and the NFHAP,5 partnerships of federal 

agencies, states, tribes, conservation 

organizations, and industry working 

to protect priority bird and fish habitats respectively. These efforts offer ideal 

opportunities to bring climate change 

4 www.fws.gov/birdhabitat/JointVentures/index.shtm

5 fishhabitat.org/

usfws
Implementation & Integration | 89

In addition, the USGCRP has produced 

a series of 21 Synthesis and Assessment 

Products on the current information 

regarding the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed 

ecosystems and human systems to 

climate and related global changes. These 

reports address topics such as sea level 

rise (CCSP 2009a), ecosystem change 

(CCSP 2009b), agriculture, biodiversity, 

land and water resources (CCSP 2008d), 

adaptation options for climate-sensitive 

systems and resources (CCSP 2008c), 

energy production (CCSP 2007), human 

health (CCSP 2008a), and transportation 

(CCSP 2008b).

Another important entity is the ICCATF,8

which was established in 2009 to help 

the federal government and partners 

understand, prepare for, and adapt to the 

impacts of climate change. The development of this Strategy was endorsed 

in the ICCATF’s 2010 Progress Report

8 www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ceq/

initiatives/adaptation

makers and partners (CEQ 2010, 2011, 

Pew Center 2010, 2012). Many of the 

strategies and actions in this Strategy

are based in part on efforts identified, 

planned, or implemented by one or more 

other agencies (federal, state, or tribal).

The USGCRP7 is responsible for 

publishing a National Climate 

Assessment (NCA) every four years 

describing the extent of climate change 

in the United States and its impacts. 

The most recent national assessment 

was published in 2009, and provides the 

scientific foundation for this Strategy. 

The next assessment in 2013 will provide 

new information about impacts, opportunities, and vulnerabilities. Future NCAs 

will provide a basis for evaluating the 

effectiveness of the adaptation actions in 

this Strategy and determining next steps. 

7 www.globalchange.gov

information into existing resource 

management planning to ensure management actions advance adaptation in a 

changing climate. Such efforts can also 

draw upon a growing number of important tools and approaches for adaptation 

planning and action. For example, the 

Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange 

(CAKE),6 a joint project from EcoAdapt 

and Island Press, provides detailed information and access to information, tools, 

and case studies on adaptation to climate.

Many tribal governments and organizations understand the need to adapt 

as they are already experiencing the 

impacts of climate change on species, 

habitats, and ecosystems that are vital 

to their cultures and economies. For 

example, the Swinomish Tribe in the 

Pacific Northwest, which depends on 

salmon and shellfish, has developed the 

Swinomish Climate Change Initiative. 

This effort seeks to assess local impacts, 

identify vulnerabilities, and prioritize 

planning areas and actions to address 

the impacts of climate change, and can 

serve as an example for other tribal 

governments.

A number of climate adaptation efforts 

are underway at the Federal level. Many 

Federal agencies have initiated efforts 

to assess risks and impacts of climate 

change, and design adaptation efforts to 

reduce these risks. Federal agencies with 

natural resource management responsibilities like DOI, NOAA, USDA, EPA, 

and others have initiated a wide variety 

of efforts to better understand, monitor, 

prepare for, and respond to climate 

change impacts in their mission areas, 

including targeted science, the application of new tools and assessments, and 

training for natural resource decision 

6 www.cakex.org

Planning for climate adaptation will require 

a team effort involving federal, state, 

tribal, and local governments if it is to be 

successful.

John Miller/Aroostook Band of Micmacs/Fred Corey photo
90 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

5.2 Strategy 

Implementation

Successful implementation of this 

Strategy will take commitment and 

resources by government and nongovernment entities, and must include 

steps to formulate specific objectives, 

select and implement conservation 

actions, and evaluate, learn, and adjust 

our course of action as needed to achieve 

our goals in a changing world. Logical 

models for transitioning from the framework of the Strategy to more specific 

action plans are described by Peterson et 

al. (2011) and Glick et al. (2009). 

In addition, following direction from 

Presidential Executive Order 13514 and 

the ICCATF, CEQ issued Implementing 

Instructions to all federal agencies to 

launch climate change adaptation planning with the first agency plans due in 

June 2012. This presents many opportunities for the resource management 

agencies involved in the development of 

this Strategy to develop their own agencyspecific plans (if they have not already 

done so) and to interact with other agencies whose programs may influence 

their prospects for success. Many federal 

agencies have already conducted assessments of their vulnerability to climate 

change and are developing adaptation 

plans to reduce risks, respond to impacts, 

and take advantage of possible beneficial changes of a changing climate. This 

Strategy should serve as a useful resource 

to all these efforts.

to the President. The ICCATF has also 

launched other efforts to advance climate 

adaptation that both inform this Strategy

and provide opportunities for the 

Strategy’s implementation. One of these 

is the Freshwater Action Plan. Released 

in October of 2011, the Freshwater 

Action Plan describes the challenges 

that a changing climate presents for the 

management of the nation’s freshwater 

resources, and recommends a set of 

actions federal agencies can take to help 

freshwater resource managers reduce the 

risks of climate change.

In addition, the National Ocean Council 

(NOC) is developing a series of actions to 

address the Resiliency and Adaptation to 

Climate Change and Ocean Acidification 

priority objective, one of nine priority 

objectives identified by the National 

Ocean Policy (NOP). These actions will 

address how the NOC will implement the 

NOP to respond to the challenges posed 

by climate change and ocean acidification. A Draft Strategic Action Plan outline 

was released for public comment in June 

2011, and a draft Implementation Plan

for the NOP was released for comment 

in January 2012. A final Implementation 

Plan is expected in 2012. This Strategy

has been developed in coordination with 

both the Freshwater Action Plan and the 

NOP Strategic Action Plan, so that the 

three strategies support and reinforce 

each other.

Successful implementation will require 

partnerships, innovation, and passion.

Integration & Implementation

Scott Newhall/Time Out Charters

USFWS/Gary Peeples
Integration & Implementation | 91

2 An inter-jurisdictional coordinating 

body with policy maker representation and staff support from federal, 

state, and tribal governments should 

be established. This body should meet 

biannually to monitor performance 

and evaluate implementation of the 

Strategy and report its findings to 

the public.

» This coordinating body will be tasked 

with promoting awareness, understanding, and use of the Strategy as a 

key tool in addressing climate change.

» Starting in June 2014, the coordinating 

body, with support from DOI, NOAA, 

and CEQ, should start a revision of the 

Strategy, to be completed by June 2015. 

This revision will incorporate information produced by the 2013 NCA.

» The coordinating body will establish a 

mechanism to engage representatives 

of non-governmental organizations, 

natural resource industries, private 

landowners, and international conservation partners to assist with Strategy

implementation and revision.

to design and deliver programs and 

actions that advance adaptation of fish 

and wildlife resources in a changing 

climate.

» Federal members of the Strategy

Steering Committee will coordinate lead roles, responsibilities, and 

milestones for implementation of the 

Strategy across the federal sector.

» Federal agencies with programs that 

affect fish, wildlife, and plants and the 

habitats they depend on should ensure 

that ongoing agency adaptation planning efforts under Executive Order 

13514 reflect and align with the recommendations, strategies, and actions of 

the Strategy.

» The ICCATF should continue to 

facilitate coordination and interaction 

among federal agencies regarding this 

Strategy and other climate adaptation 

planning efforts at both the national 

and regional level.

To ensure effective coordination, implementation, tracking, and updating of 

the Strategy, this report proposes the 

following steps:

1 Federal, state, and tribal governments and conservation partners 

should incorporate appropriate 

elements of the Strategy (goals, strategies, and actions) into their plans 

and actions at national to local levels 

(e.g., development of implementation plans by federal, state, and tribal 

governments).

» LCCs can play an important role in 

facilitating development of action 

plans to implement the Strategy that 

include specific objectives, actions, and 

commitments of resources appropriate 

to their geographic areas. The LCCs 

have a good mix of membership of 

state, federal, tribal and private conservation organizations, and operate at 

scales appropriate to successfully facilitate implementation of this Strategy

through a collaborative process. CSCs, 

RISAs, and other regional collaborative 

efforts should incorporate appropriate 

elements of this Strategy as a resource 

for guiding their future science and 

assessment agendas and adaptation 

strategies.

» Many states have already incorporated 

climate change considerations in their 

State Wildlife Action Plans. Future 

revisions of these plans and other 

States’ Wldlife Action Plans that lack 

climate change considerations should 

incorporate appropriate elements 

of this Strategy, AFWA’s Voluntary 

Guidance for States to Incorporate 

Climate Change into State Wildlife 

Action Plans and Other Management 

Plans, and other appropriate resources 

USFWS/Steve Hillebrand
92 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

This Strategy is the 

beginning of a significant 

collective effort to 

safeguard the nation’s 

fish, wildlife, plants, and 

the communities and 

economies that depend on 

them in a changing climate. 

A challenging task lies 

ahead, and much remains 

to be learned about the 

specific impacts of climate 

change and the responses 

of plants, wildlife, and 

ecosystems.

» The coordinating body will work with 

regional conservation collaboratives 

such as LCCs to facilitate transition 

from the framework of this Strategy to 

geographically specific implementation 

action plans.

» The coordinating body will develop 

a process and tools, including the 

Progress Checklists of this Strategy,

to evaluate implementation and shall 

include an assessment of implementation in their annual report.

» The coordinating body will work 

with the ICCATF to facilitate efficient 

communication and coordination 

among federal agencies and between 

federal agencies and state and tribal 

governments. The coordinating body 

should facilitate these interactions in a 

way that fosters clear, consistent, and 

efficient communication and avoids 

duplication of effort.

» The FWS, NOAA, and AFWA will 

collaborate to staff and support the 

work of the coordinating body.

Integration & Implementation

New climate change and adaptation 

science is coming out almost daily and 

will help guide the way. But we know 

enough now to begin taking effective 

action to reduce risks and increase 

resiliency of these valuable natural 

resources—and we cannot afford to wait 

to respond to the changes we are already 

seeing or to prepare for those yet to 

come. Unless the nation begins a serious 

effort to undertake this task now, we 

risk losing priceless living systems—and 

the countless benefits and services they 

provide—as the climate inexorably 

changes. 

This Strategy offers a common framework 

for meaningful adaptation response, and 

will help ensure that the nation’s valuable fish, wildlife, plants, and ecosystems 

continue to the benefit of our nation, our 

communities and our economy for years 

to come.

jane pellicciotto
Resources | 93

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Marine Water Ecosystems

www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov/pdfMarine_

Ecosystems_Paper.pdf

Legislation

www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov/pdf/2010_

Legislative_Language_for_Adaptation_Strategy.pdf

Related Resources, Reports, 

and Materials

Adaptive Management: The U.S. Department 

of Interior Technical Guide

www.doi.gov/initiatives/AdaptiveManagement/documents.html

The Technical Guide presents adaptive management 

as a tool to help bureaus make better decisions in 

the context of uncertain or incomplete information.

America’s Climate Choices

nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices

The National Research Council of the National 

Academies is conducting a series of coordinated 

activities designed to advance the U.S. response to 

climate change.

Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service 

(APHIS): National Wildlife Research Center 

(NWRC)

www.aphis.usda.gov/wildlife_damage/nwrc

The APHIS’s NWRC can work with conservation 

and land and resource management agencies and 

organizations to address invasive species damage 

management.

Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange (CAKE)

www.cakex.org

CAKE is a joint project of Island Press and EcoAdapt. 

It is aimed at building a shared knowledge base for 

managing natural systems in the face of rapid climate 

change, and includes a large database of adaptation 

case studies, reports, and tools, as well as links to 

federal, state, and local adaptation plans.

Climate Change Tree and Bird Atlases

www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas

The tree and bird atlases examine current distributions and modeled future-climate habitats for 134 

individual tree species and the distribution of 150 

bird species by geographic area.

Climate Change Resource Center (CCRC)

www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/

CCRC is a reference Web site for resource managers 

and decision makers who need information and tools 

to address climate change in planning and project 

implementation.

Ecosystem-Specific 

Background Papers

These ecosystem-specific background 

papers were developed by the Technical 

Teams (see Appendix E for a listing of the 

Technical Teams and their members) as 

source material for the Strategy detailing 

the impacts of climate change on specific 

ecosystems as well as adaptation strategies and actions for those systems. They 

are not formal appendices to the Strategy

and have not been, nor will they be 

updated or revised based on either the 

agency or public reviews of the Strategy. 

These papers have been edited by the 

Management Team for length, style, and 

content, and the Management Team 

accepts responsibility for any omissions or errors. Please follow the links 

to access detailed information regarding 

climate change adaptation for specific 

ecosystems.

Forest Ecosystems

www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov/pdf/Forest_

Ecosystems_Paper.pdf

Shrubland Ecosystems

www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov/pdf/Shrubland_

Ecosystems_Paper.pdf

Grassland Ecosystems

www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov/pdf/Grassland_

Ecosystems_Paper.pdf

Desert Ecosystems

www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov/pdf/Desert_

Ecosystems_Paper.pdf

Arctic Tundra Ecosystems

www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov/pdf/Tundra_

Ecosystems_Paper.pdf

Inland Water Ecosystems

www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov/pdf/Inland_Water_

Ecosystems_Paper.pdf

Coastal Ecosystems

www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov/pdf/Coastal_

Ecosystems_Paper.pdf

Appendix A: Supporting 

Materials

Below are supporting materials for the National Fish, Wildlife and Plants 

Climate Adaptation Strategy (hereafter 

Strategy). The supporting materials are 

made available to increase understanding 

of the development of the Strategy and to 

provide more detailed information about 

subjects mentioned in the Strategy. Each 

of these materials is available online on 

the Strategy’s web site: www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov, or via the links listed in 

this appendix.

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104 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Climate Forest Vegetation Simulator Projection

forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/

species/index.php

Climate-FVS is a modification to the Forest Vegetation 

Simulator, a stand dynamics model generally used 

to support forest planning, project analysis, and 

silvicultural prescription preparation.

Climate Science Centers (CSCs)

nccwsc.usgs.gov/csc.shtml

Regional CSCs will provide scientific information, 

tools, and techniques that land, water, wildlife, and 

cultural resource managers can apply to anticipate, 

monitor, and adapt to climate and ecologically-driven 

responses at regional-to-local scales.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

www.epa.gov/climatechange/

The EPA provides a good overview of climate adaptation and links to related resources and materials.

Forecasts of Climate-Associated Shifts in 

Tree Species (ForeCASTS)

www.forestthreats.org/tools/ForeCASTS

The maps, known as ForeCASTS depict future suitable habitat ranges for North American tree species 

within the United States as well as across the globe. 

It uses projections of future climate in combination 

with the concept of fine-scale ecoregions and can 

ultimately be used to assess the risk to genetic 

integrity of North American forest tree populations.

Forest Adaptation Resources: Climate Change 

Tools and Approaches for Land Managers

www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543

This document provides a collection of resources 

designed to help forest managers incorporate climate change considerations into management and 

devise adaptation tactics. It was developed in northern Wisconsin as part of the Northwoods Climate 

Change Response Framework project and contains 

information from assessments, partnership efforts, 

workshops, and collaborative work between scientists 

and managers.

ForGRAS (Forest Genetic Risk Assessment 

System)

www.forestthreats.org/current-projects/projectsummaries/genetic-risk-assessment-system

This assessment framework serves as a tool for 

planning management activities and conservation 

efforts, for evaluating species’ genetic resources, 

and for detecting vulnerabilities. It has the advantage 

of accounting for multiple threats that may result in 

the most severe genetic impacts.

National Road Map for Responding to 

Climate Change

www.fs.fed.us/climatechange/pdf/Roadmapfinal.pdf

The National Road Map for Responding to Climate 

Change was developed by the U.S. Forest Service 

to achieve the goal of all National Forests being in 

compliance with a climate adaptation and mitigation 

strategy. The Roadmap integrates land management, 

outreach, and sustainable operations accounting. 

It focuses on three kinds of activities: assessing 

current risks, vulnerabilities, policies, and gaps in 

knowledge; engaging partners in seeking solutions 

and learning from as well as educating the public and 

employees on climate change issues; and managing for resilience, in ecosystems as well as in human 

communities, through adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable consumption strategies.

Plant Protection Act (PPA)

www.aphis.usda.gov/brs/pdf/PlantProtAct2000.pdf

The PPA consolidates all or part of 10 existing U.S. 

Department of Agriculture plant health laws into 

one comprehensive law, including the authority to 

regulate plants, plant products, certain biological 

control organisms, noxious weeds, and plant pests.

Responding to Climate Change in National 

Forests: A Guidebook for Developing 

Adaptation Options

www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr855.pdf

This guidebook created by the U.S. Forest Service 

contains science-based principles, processes, 

and tools necessary to assist with developing 

adaptation options for national forest lands.

Rising to the Urgent Challenge: Strategic Plan 

for Responding to Accelerating Climate Change

www.fws.gov/home/climatechange/pdf/

CCStrategicPlan.pdf

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service climate change 

strategy, titled “Rising to the Urgent Challenge: 

Strategic Plan for Responding to Accelerating Climate 

Change,” establishes a basic framework within 

which the Service will work as part of the larger 

conservation community to help ensure the sustainability of fish, wildlife, plants and habitats in the face 

of accelerating climate change.

Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A Guide to 

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

www.habitat.noaa.gov/pdf/scanning_the_conservation_horizon.pdf

This guidance document is a product of an expert 

workgroup on climate change vulnerability assessment convened by the National Wildlife Federation in 

collaboration with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios 

(ICLUS)

www.epa.gov/ncea/global/iclus

The EPA is developing scenarios broadly consistent 

with global-scale, peer-reviewed storylines of population growth and economic development, which are 

used by climate change modelers to develop projections of future climate.

Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task 

Force (ICCATF)

www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ceq/

initiatives/adaptation

The Council on Environmental Quality is co-chairing 

the ICCATF which is comprised of over 200 federal 

agency staff.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

(IPCC)

www.ipcc.ch

The IPCC is the definitive scientific intergovernmental body tasked with reviewing and assessing the 

most recent scientific, technical, and socio-economic 

information produced worldwide relevant to the 

understanding of climate change. Work on the Fifth 

Assessment Report is currently underway.

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs)

www.fws.gov/science/shc/lcc.html

LCCs are self-directed, applied conservation science 

partnerships that will support conservation at landscape scales.

MC1 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

databasin.org/climate-center/features/mc1-dynamicglobal-vegetation-model

MC1 is a widely used dynamic global vegetation 

model (DGVM) that has been used to simulate potential vegetation shifts in California and Alaska, all of 

North America, and over the entire globe under various climate change scenarios.

National Action Plan: Priorities for Managing 

Freshwater Resources in a Changing Climate

www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/

ceq/2011_national_action_plan.pdf

The Freshwater Action Plan recommends federal 

agency actions to aid freshwater resource managers in managing and protecting the nation’s water 

resources.

National Ocean Policy

www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/oceans/

policy

In July of 2010, Executive Order 13547 established 

a National Ocean Policy and tasked the interagency 

National Ocean Council with developing this strategic 

action plan.

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Appendix B: Glossary

Adaptation (Climate Change): adjustment 

in natural or human systems in response to 

actual or expected climatic stimuli or their 

effects, which moderates harm or exploits 

beneficial opportunities.

Adaptation (Biological): the process or the 

product of natural selection that changes an 

organism’s behavior, physiological function, or 

anatomical structure, so that it is better suited 

to its environment.

Adaptive Capacity: the ability of a species to 

become adapted (i.e., to be able to live and 

reproduce) to a certain range of environmental 

conditions as a result of genetic and 

phenotypic responses.

Anthropogenic: of, relating to, or resulting 

from the influence of human beings on nature.

Biodiversity: the variability among living 

organisms from all sources, including 

terrestrial, marine, and other aquatic 

ecosystems and the ecological complexes of 

which they are part; this includes diversity 

within species, among species, and of 

ecosystems.

Bycatch: unwanted marine creatures that are 

caught in the nets while fishing for another 

species

Carbon Sequestration: the long-term storage 

of carbon dioxide or other forms of carbon. 

It has been proposed as a way to slow the 

atmospheric and marine accumulation of the 

greenhouse gas, which is released by burning 

fossil fuels.

The seed selection tool (SST)

sst.forestry.oregonstate.edu

The seedlot selection tool (SST) is a GIS mapping 

program designed to help forest managers match 

seedlots with planting sites based on climatic 

information.

Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts 

and Management Options (TACCIMO)

www.forestthreats.org/tools/taccimo/intro

A web-based tool that provides land owners, managers, and planners with the most current climate 

change science available. Developed by EFETAC 

researchers in partnership with USDA Forest Service 

Southern Regional Planning, Land and Resource 

Management; Southern Regional Cooperative 

Forestry; and Western Wildland Environmental Threat 

Assessment Center, the TACCIMO tool compiles climate change projections, literature-based impacts 

and management options, and Forest Service 

land and resource management plans in an online 

database.

U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)

www.globalchange.gov

The USGCRP coordinates and integrates federal 

research on changes in the global environment and 

their implications for society.

Voluntary Guidance for States to Incorporate 

Climate Change into State Wildlife Action Plans 

and Other Management Plans

www.fishwildlife.org/files/AFWA-Voluntary-GuidanceIncorporating-Climate-Change_SWAP.pdf

This document, which was produced by the Climate 

Change Wildlife Action Plan Work Group which was 

created as a joint work group by the Association 

of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Climate Change 

and Teaming with Wildlife Committees, provides 

voluntary guidance for state fish and wildlife 

agencies wanting to better incorporate the impacts 

of climate change on wildlife and their habitats into 

Wildlife Action Plans.

Clean Water Act: the primary federal law in 

the United States governing water pollution. 

The Act established the goals of eliminating 

releases of high amounts of toxic substances 

into water, eliminating additional water 

pollution by 1985, and ensuring that surface 

waters would meet standards necessary for 

human sports and recreation by 1983.

Climate Change: a significant and lasting 

change in the statistical distribution of weather 

patterns over periods ranging from decades 

to millions of years. It may be a change in 

average weather conditions or the distribution 

of events around that average (e.g., more 

or fewer extreme weather events). Climate 

change may be limited to a specific region or 

may occur across the whole Earth.

Climate Models: quantitative methods to 

simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, 

oceans, land surface, and ice. They are used 

for a variety of purposes from study of the 

dynamics of the climate system to projections 

of future climate.

Coastal Zone Management Act: an Act of 

Congress passed in 1972 to encourage 

coastal states to develop and implement 

coastal zone management plans. This act was 

established as national policy to preserve, 

protect, develop, and where possible, 

restore or enhance, the resources of the 

Nation’s coastal zone for this and succeeding 

generations.

Conservation: Preservation, protection, or 

restoration of the natural environment, natural 

ecosystems, vegetation, and wildlife.

Conservation Partners: entities working 

toward the conservation of fish, wildlife, and 

other natural resources, which includes local 

governments, non-government organizations, 

charitable foundations, academic institutions, 

industries, private landowners, and other 

interested individuals.

Downscaling: refers to techniques that take 

output from global climate models and add 

information at smaller scales. Downscaling 

methods are used to obtain local-scale surface 

weather from global or regional-scale models.

USFWS/George Gentry
106 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Habitat Degradation: the process in which 

natural habitat is rendered functionally unable 

to support the species present. In this 

process, the organisms that previously used 

the site are displaced or destroyed, reducing 

biodiversity.

Habitat Fragmentation: describes the 

emergence of discontinuities in an organism’s 

preferred habitat, causing population 

fragmentation. Habitat fragmentation can be 

caused by geological processes that slowly 

alter the layout of the physical environment or 

by human activity such as land conversion and 

road building.

Harmful Algal Blooms: a rapid increase or 

accumulation in the population of algae in 

an aquatic system forming visible patches 

that may harm the health of the environment, 

plants, or animals. They can deplete the 

oxygen and block the sunlight that other 

organisms need to live, and some algae 

blooms release toxins that are dangerous to 

animals and humans.

Hydrology: the movement, distribution, and 

quality of water, including the hydrologic cycle, 

water resources, and environmental watershed 

sustainability.

Hypoxia: a phenomenon that occurs in aquatic 

environments as dissolved oxygen becomes 

reduced in concentration to a point where it 

becomes detrimental to aquatic organisms 

living in the system.

Invasive Species: non-indigenous species of 

plants or animals that adversely affect the 

economy, environment, and/or ecology of the 

habitats and bioregions they invade.

Keystone Species: a species that has 

a disproportionately large effect on its 

environment relative to its abundance. Such 

species play a critical role in maintaining the 

structure of an ecological community, affecting 

many other organisms in an ecosystem and 

helping to determine the types and numbers of 

various other species in the community.

Exclusive Economic Zone: a zone of an 

ocean or sea over which a state has special 

rights over the exploration and use of marine 

resources, including production of energy from 

water and wind. It stretches from the seaward 

edge of the state’s territorial sea out to 200 

nautical miles from its coast.

Extreme Events: includes weather phenomena 

that are at the extremes of the historical 

distribution, especially severe or unseasonal 

weather such as heat waves, drought, floods, 

storms, and wildfires.

Farm Bill: colloquial name for the primary 

agricultural and food policy tool of the federal 

government. The comprehensive omnibus 

bill is passed every five years or so by the 

United States Congress and deals with both 

agriculture and all other affairs under the 

purview of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

The formal title of each bill varies, but 

the current version is known as the Food, 

Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008.

Geomorphological Change: changes observed 

in landforms and the processes that shape 

them. The study of geomorphological change 

can be used to understand landform history 

and dynamics, and to predict future changes 

through a combination of field observations, 

physical experiments, and numerical modeling.

Globalization: refers to the increasingly global 

relationships of culture, people, and economic 

activity.

Greenhouse Gas: a gas in an atmosphere 

that absorbs and emits radiation within the 

thermal infrared range. This process is the 

fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect. 

The primary greenhouse gases in the Earth’s 

atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, 

methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone.

Habitat: an ecological or environmental area 

that is inhabited by a particular species of 

animal, plant, or other type of organism. 

It is the natural environment in which an 

organism lives, or the physical environment 

that surrounds (influences and is utilized by) a 

population.

Ecosystem: a biological environment 

consisting of all the organisms living in a 

particular area, as well as all the nonliving 

(abiotic), physical components of the 

environment with which the organisms interact, 

such as air, soil, water, and sunlight.

Ecosystem Function: the physical, chemical, 

and biological processes or attributes that 

contribute to the self-maintenance of the 

ecosystem, such as decomposition, nutrient 

cycling, pollination, and seed dispersal.

Ecosystem Process: A natural phenomenon in 

an ecosystem that leads toward a particular 

result.

Ecosystem Services: the benefits people 

obtain from ecosystems. These include 

provisioning services such as food, water, 

timber, and fiber; regulating services such 

as the regulation of climate, floods, disease, 

wastes, and water quality; cultural services 

such as recreation, aesthetic enjoyment, 

identity, and spiritual fulfillment; and 

supporting services such as soil formation, 

photosynthesis, and nutrient cycling.

Endangered Species Act (ESA): environmental 

law signed on December 28, 1973, that 

provides for the conservation of species that 

are endangered or threatened throughout all 

or a significant portion of their range, and the 

conservation of the ecosystems on which they 

depend. The ESA replaced the Endangered 

Species Conservation Act of 1969. It has been 

amended several times.

Eutrophication: the movement of a body 

of water′s trophic status in the direction of 

increasing biomass, by the addition of artificial 

or natural substances, such as nitrates and 

phosphates, through fertilizers or sewage, to 

an aquatic system.

Evapotranspiration: describes the sum of 

evaporation and plant transpiration from 

the Earth’s land surface to atmosphere. 

Evaporation accounts for the movement of 

water to the air from sources such as the 

soil, canopy interception, and waterbodies. 

Transpiration accounts for the movement of 

water within a plant and the subsequent loss 

of water as vapor through its leaves.

Resources
Resources | 107

Risk Assessment: the determination of 

quantitative or qualitative value of risk related 

to a concrete situation and a recognized threat 

such as climate change.

Sea Level Rise: As water warms, it expands, 

and the ocean surface rises. The melting of 

inland glaciers and continental ice sheets, 

including those in Greenland and Antarctica, 

causes additional sea level rise. Sea level 

change is highly variable regionally. It depends 

on the relative increase in water levels as 

well as local land elevation changes caused 

by subsidence or uplift, and local rates of 

sediment accumulation. Relative sea level rise 

refers to a local increase in the level of the 

ocean due to the interaction of these factors.

Sentinel Site: A location that is selected to 

represent a certain, preferably large, class of 

ecosystems for intensive monitoring.

Socioeconomics: a word used to identify 

the importance of factors other than biology 

in natural resource management decisions. 

For example, if management results in more 

fishing income, it is important to know how the 

income is distributed between small and large 

boats or part-time and full-time fishermen.

Stakeholders: a person, group, organization, 

or system that affects or can be affected by an 

organization’s actions.

Stratification: in relation to water, stratification 

occurs when water masses with different 

properties (salinity, oxygenation, density, 

temperature) form layers that act as barriers 

to water mixing. These layers are normally 

arranged according to density, with the least 

dense water masses sitting above the more 

dense layers.

Vulnerability Assessment: a tool used 

in adaptation planning for informing the 

development and implementation of resource 

management practices.

Permafrost: soil at or below the freezing point 

of water (0 °C or 32 °F) for two or more years.

Phenology: the study of periodic plant and 

animal life cycle events and how these are 

influenced by seasonal and inter-annual 

variations in climate.

Resilience: (Current Ecological Usage) - the 

capacity of an ecosystem to return to its 

original state following a perturbation, including 

maintaining its essential characteristics of 

taxonomic composition, structure, ecosystem 

functions, and process rates. (Emerging 

Climate Change Usage)—In the emerging 

context of climate change, resilience might 

best be thought of as the ability of an 

ecosystem to recover from or adjust easily to 

change, measured more in terms of overall 

ecosystem structure, function, and rates and 

less in terms of taxonomic composition. A

grassland that remains a grassland in the 

face of climate change could be thought of 

as resilient, even if its species composition 

is substantially altered. On the other hand, a 

grassland that becomes a forest in the face 

of climate change was not resilient: it has 

transformed into a new system.

Resistance: the capacity of the ecosystem 

to absorb disturbances and remain largely 

unchanged.

Restoration: (Current Ecological Usage) - the 

process of repairing damage to the diversity 

and dynamics of indigenous ecosystems, 

which can include promoting or mimicking 

natural disturbance regimes; managing issues 

like in-stream flows, water withdrawals, and 

stormwater run-off; and addressing poorlysited infrastructure. (Emerging Climate 

Change Usage) - In the emerging context of 

climate change, restoration might best be 

thought of as focusing on repairing damage 

to such structural or functional aspects of 

the ecosystem as listed above, as opposed 

to attempting to restore the original species 

composition of an ecosystem.

Maladaptation: an adaptation that, although 

reasonable at the time, becomes less and 

less suitable and more of a problem or 

hindrance as time goes on. It is possible 

for an adaptation to be poorly selected or 

become less appropriate or even become, on 

balance, more of a dysfunction than a positive 

adaptation over time.

Mitigation: in the context of climate change, a 

human intervention to reduce the sources or 

enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.

Natural Disturbance Regimes: the pattern and 

dynamics of disturbance events (e.g., fires, 

floods, landslides, etc.) that mold the structure 

and species composition of an ecosystem.

Natural Resources: materials and components 

that can be found within the environment. 

A natural resource may exist as a separate 

entity, such as fresh water and air, as well as a 

living organism, such as a fish, or it may exist 

in an alternate form which must be processed 

to obtain the resource, such as metal ores, oil, 

and most forms of energy.

Non-climate Stressors: in the context of 

climate adaptation, non-climate stressors 

refer to those current or future pressures 

and impacts threatening species and natural 

systems that do not stem from climate change, 

such as habitat fragmentation, invasive 

species, pollution and contamination, disease, 

and over exploitation.

Nonpoint Source Pollution: refers to both 

water and air pollution from diffuse sources. 

Nonpoint source water pollution affects a 

waterbody from sources such as polluted 

runoff from agriculture areas draining into 

a river or wind-borne debris blowing out to 

sea. Nonpoint source air pollution affects air 

quality from sources such as smokestacks 

or car tailpipes. Although these pollutants 

have originated from a point source, the longrange transport ability and multiple sources 

of the pollutant make it a nonpoint source of 

pollution.

Ocean Acidification: the ongoing decrease in 

the pH and increase in acidity of the Earth’s 

oceans, caused by the uptake of carbon 

dioxide from the atmosphere.
108 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on 

Climate Change

ICCATF Interagency Climate Change 

Adaptation Task Force

JVs Migratory bird and other Joint 

Ventures

LCC Landscape Conservation 

Cooperative

NC NERR North Carolina National Estuarine 

Research Reserve

NCA National Climate Assessment

NERRS National Estuarine Research 

Reserve System

NFHAP National Fish Habitat Action Plan

NMFS National Marine Fisheries Service

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

NOC National Ocean Council

NOP National Ocean Policy

NRC National Research Council

NRCS National Resource Conservation 

Service

NSF National Science Foundation

PCB Polychlorinated biphenyls

PCSGA Pacific Coast Shellfish Growers 

Association

REDD Reducing Emissions from 

Deforestation and Forest 

Degradation

RISAs Regional Integrated Sciences 

and Assessments

RMRS U.S. Forest Service: Rocky 

Mountain Research Station

SNAP Scenarios Network for Alaska 

Planning

TEK Traditional Ecological Knowledge

USDA United States Department of 

Agriculture

USGCRP United States Global Change 

Research Program

USGS United States Geological Survey

WICCI Wisconsin’s Changing Climate: 

Impacts and Adaptation

Appendix C: Acronyms

ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

AFWA Association of Fish and Wildlife 

Agencies

AMSA Arctic Marine Shipping 

Assessment

ASCE American Society of Civil 

Engineers

AZ CCAG Arizona Climate Change Advisory 

Group

CADFG California Department of Fish and 

Game

CAKE Climate Adaptation Knowledge 

Exchange

CEC Commission for Environmental 

Cooperation

CEQ Council on Environmental Quality

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

CSCs Climate Science Centers

CCSP U.S. Climate Change Science 

Program

DDT Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane

DOC Department of Commerce

DOI Department of the Interior

ECA Economics of Climate Adaptation 

Working Group

ESA Endangered Species Act

F Fahrenheit

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization 

of the United Nations

FWS U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

GAO General Accountability Office

GHG/GHGs Greenhouse Gas/Gasses

HABs Harmful Algal Blooms

Lori Iverson/USFWS

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Resources | 109

lesser prairie-chicken

lodgepole pine

mountain pine beetle

muskoxen

northern pike

Pacific oyster

paper birch tree

common reed

pinyon mouse

piping plover

poison ivy

polar bear

Ponderosa pine

quagga mussel

rainbow trout

red fox

red knot

ring seal

Rio Grande cutthroat trout

sagebrush

Saguaro

seabeach amaranth

silver hake

smallmouth bass

southwestern willow flycatcher

spruce

spruce bark beetle

surf clam

walleye

walrus

water hyacinth

white spruce

white-tailed deer

Wilson’s plover

zebra mussel

alpine chipmunk

American oystercatcher

American robin

Arctic fox

Asian carp (Bighead carp)

Asian carp (Black carp)

Asian carp (Grass carp)

Asian carp (Silver carp)

Atlantic croaker

blue crab

brook trout

brown treesnake

buffelgrass

California vole

caribou

cheatgrass

Edith’s checkerspot butterfly

Chinook salmon

cisco

Coho salmon

Cope’s gray treefrog

diamondback terrapin

eastern tiger salamander

feral hog

greater sage grouse

grizzly bear

hemlock woolly adelgid

horseshoe crab

humpback chub

kelp

Kittiwake

kudzu

lake trout

least tern

Appendix D: Scientific 

Names

Neotamias alpinus

Haematopus palliatus

Turdus migratorius

Vulpes lagopus

Hypophthalmichthys nobilis

Mylopharyngodon piceus

Ctenopharyngodon idella

Hypophthalmichthys molitrix

Micropogonias undulatus

Callinectes sapidus

Salvelinus fontinalis

Boiga irregularis

Pennisetum ciliare

Microtus californicus

Rangifer tarandus

Bromus tectorum

Euphydryas editha

Oncorhynchus tshawytscha

Coregonus artedi

Oncorhynchus kisutch

Hyla chrysoscelis

Malaclemys terrapin

Ambystoma tigrinum

Sus scrofa

Centrocercus urophasianus

Ursus arctos horribilis

Adelges tsugae

Limulus polyphemus

Gila cypha

Laminariales

Rissa sp.

Pueraria sp.

Salvelinus namaycush

Sterna antillarum

Tympanuchus pallidicinctus

Pinus contorta

Dendroctonus ponderosae

Ovibos moschatus

Esox lucius

Crassostrea gigas

Betula papyrifera

Phragmites sp.

Peromyscus truei

Charadrius melodus

Toxicodendron radicans

Ursus maritimus

Pinus ponderosa

Dreissena rostriformis bugensis

Oncorhynchus mykiss

Vulpes vulpes

Calidris canutus

Pusa hispida

Oncorhynchus clarki virginalis

Artemisia sp.

Carnegiea gigantea

Amaranthus pumilus

Merluccius bilinearis

Micropterus dolomieu

Empidonax traillii extimus

Picea sp.

Ips typographus

Spisula solidissima

Sander vitreus

Odobenus rosmarus

Eichhornia crassipes

Picea glauca

Odocoileus virginianus

Charadrius wilsonia

Dreissena polymorpha

dan dzurisin
110 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Zimmermann, Anne

U.S. Forest Service

Zorn, James

Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission

Management Team Members

ANTONIO, JOHN

Bureau of Indian Affairs

Babij, Eleanora, Ph.D.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Barnhart, Gerald (Co-chair)

Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies

Blazer, Arthur

Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission

Call, Jessica

Council on Environmental Quality

Choudhury, Arpita, Ph.D.

Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies

Conant, Kathryn

Council on Environmental Quality

Freund, Kate

U.S. Fish and Willdife Service

Griffis, Roger (Co-chair)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration National Marine Fisheries Service

Howard, Jennifer, Ph.D.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration National Marine Fisheries Service

Lettrich, Matt

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource 

Management

McGilvray, Laurie

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration Office of Ocean and Coastal 

Resource Management

Ocana, Melissa

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Penn, Kim

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration Office of Ocean and Coastal 

Resource Management

Roessing, Megan

Council on Environmental Quality

Ryan, Devon

Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies

Shaffer, Mark (Co-chair), Ph.D.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

HELBRECHT, LYNN (ALTERNATE)

Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife

Hunting, Kevin

CA Department of Fish and Game

Hyberg, Skip, Ph.D.

Farm Service Agency

Iverson, Chris (Alternate)

U.S. Forest Service

Jensen, Jay

Council on Environmental Quality

Kinsinger, Anne

U.S. Geological Survey

Laborde, Sara (Alternate)

WA Department of Fish and Wildlife

Lousberg, Macara

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Office of Water

Metchis, Karen (Alternate)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Office of Water

Morales, Raul (Alternate)

Bureau of Land Management

Myers, Gordon

NC Wildlife Resources Commission

O’Malley, Robin (Alternate)

U.S. Geological Survey

Olson, Carolyn, PH.D.

Natural Resources Conservation Service

Pairis, Amber, Ph.D. (Alternate)

CA Department of Fish and Game

Rice, Bryan

Bureau of Indian Affairs

Riexinger, Patricia (Co-Chair)

NYS Department of Environmental Conservation

Schwaab, Eric (Co-chair)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Marine Fisheries Service

Smith, Chip

Office of the Assistant Secretary of the 

Army for Civil Works

Smith, Katherine, Ph.D. (Alternate)

U.S. Forest Service

Sullivan, Jack

WI Department of Natural Resources

VANATOR, JEN

Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission

Williams, Terry

Tulalip Tribe

Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission

Appendix E: Team 

Members

Steering Committee Members

Anderson, Phil

WA Department of Fish and Wildlife

Beard, Doug, PH.D. (Alternate)

U.S. Geological Survey

Boroja, Maria

Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service

Boyce, Sandy Ph.D. (Alternate)

U.S. Forest Service

Brekke, Levi, PH.D.

Bureau of Reclamation

Brittell, Dave

WA Department of Fish and Wildlife

Butts, Sally (Alternate)

Bureau of Land Management

Cushing, Janet (Alternate)

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Davidson, Margaret

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration Ocean Service

Fielder, Dwight

Bureau of Land Management

Finch, Kelly (Alternate)

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Gorke, Roger (Alternate)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Office of Water

Gould, Rowan, PH.D. (Co-chair)

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

GRAYAM, MICHAEL (ALTERNATE)

Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission

Hallet, Hal (Alternate)

Bureau of Land Management

Hawkins Hoffman, Cat

National Park Service

Resources usfws
Resources | 111

Gordon, Wendy, Ph.D.

TX Parks and Wildlife Department

Green, Nancy

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Hohman, Bill

Natural Resources Conservation Service

Iovanna, Richard

Farm Service Agency

Jorgenson, Janet

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Karl, Michael “Sherm”, Ph.D.

Bureau of Land Management

Korth, Kim

NJ Division of Fish and Wildlife

Manning, Mary

U.S. Forest Service

Olson, Dave (Co-chair)

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Olwell, Peggy (Co-chair)

Bureau of Land Management

Richards, Laura

NV Department of Wildlife

Shenk, Tanya, Ph.D.

National Park Service

Speaks, Pene

WA Department of Natural Resources

Vines, Jeri

Bureau of Indian Affairs

Inland Water Technical Team Members

Baker, Rowan

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Barrett, Paul, Ph.D.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Beechie, Tim

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

Northwest Fisheries Science Center

Blett, Tamara

National Park Service

Buckley, Anna

OR Department of State Lands

Chris Bujalski

Bureau of Indian Affairs

Burnett, Kelly, Ph.D.

U.S. Forest Service

Cunningham, Cathy

Bureau of Reclamation

Stringer, Christina, Ph.D.

Bureau of Indian Affairs

Thorne, Karen, Ph.D.

U.S. Geological Survey

Trott, Katherine

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Forest Technical Team Members

Auclair, Allan, Ph.D.

Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service

Bradford, John

U.S. Geological Survey

Byers, Elizabeth

WV Division of Natural Resources

De Angelis, Patricia, Ph.D.

U.S. Fish and Willdife Service

Eckert, Gregory, Ph.D.

National Park Service

Gordh, Gordon, Ph.D.

Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service

Kearney, Richard (Co-chair)

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Limpert, Dana

MD DNR Wildlife and Heritage Service

McKelvey, Kevin Ph.D. (Co-chair)

U.S. Forest Service

Morton, John M., Ph.D.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Nowacki, Greg, Ph.D.

U.S. Forest Service

O’Leary, John (Co-chair)

MA Division of Fisheries and Wildlife

Petruncio, Mark, Ph.D. (Co-chair)

Yakama Nation

Schuurman, Gregor, Ph.D.

WI Department of Natural Resources

Tirpak, John, Ph.D.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Tuttle, Crawford

CA Department of Forestry and Fire Protection

Walhovd, Gerald

Bureau of Indian Affairs

Grassland, Shrubland, Desert, 

Tundra Technical Team Members

Balogh, Greg

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Gonzales, Armand (Co-chair)

CA Department of Fish and Game

Stringer, Christina

Bureau of Indian Affairs

Taylor, Gary

Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies

Technical Team Members

Coastal Technical Team Members

Albertson, Joy

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Antoine, Adrienne

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration Climate Program Office

Beavers, Rebecca, Ph.D.

National Park Service

Hayum, Brian

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Hecht, Anne

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Honeycutt, Maria, Ph.D.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration and

National Park Service

Kline, Jennifer

GA Department of Natural Resources

Lettrich, Matt

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource 

Management

Martin, Lynn

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

McPherson, Matthew, Ph.D.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration Social Sciences Branch

Moore, Amber

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

Office of Habitat Conservation

Mumford, Sonia

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Parsons, Doug (Co-chair)

FL Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission

Penn, Kim (Co-chair)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource 

Management

Phinney, Jonathan

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration Southwest Fisheries Science 

Center
112 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Peterson, William

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

Fish Ecology Division

Sullivan, Jim

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

West, Jordan, Ph.D.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Office of Research and Development

Williams, Terry

Tulalip Tribe

Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission

Other Contributors

Barnes, Christopher

Map Specialist

U.S. Geological Survey

Earth Resources Observation and Science

John Carey

Science Writer/Editor

Jane Pellicciotto/Allegro Design

Graphic Designer

Steve Sanford

Source Material Editor

Stys, Beth

Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation 

Commission

Marine Technical Team Members

Babij, Eleanora, Ph.D.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Chytalo, Karen (Co-chair)

NY Department of Environmental Conservation

Cintron, Gil

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Crawford, Steve

Passamaquoddy Tribe at Pleasant Point

DeMaster, Doug

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

Alaska Fisheries Science Center

Fay, Virginia

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

Southeast Habitat Conservation Division

Glazer, Robert

FL Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission

Littlefield, Naomi

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

McCreedy, Cliff

National Park Service

Merrick, Richard (Co-chair), Ph.D.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

National Marine Fisheries Service

Moore, Elizabeth

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

Office of National Marine Sanctuaries

Nelson, Mark

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

Office of Sustainable Fisheries

Nye, Janet, Ph.D.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Office of Research and Development

Parker, Britt

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

Coral Reef Conservation Program

Patrick, Wesley, Ph.D.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

Office of Sustainable Fisheries

Cushing, Janet

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Day, David (Co-chair)

PA Fish and Boat Commission

Feeney, Rory

Miccosukee Tribe

Gabanski, Laura

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Gephart, Laura (Co-chair)

Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission

Gorke, Roger

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Office of Water

Hagstrom, Neal

CT Department of Environmental Protection

Inland Fisheries Division

Hatch, Keith

Bureau of Indian Affairs

Hudy, Mark, Ph.D.

U.S. Forest Service

Kiffney, Peter, Ph.D.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration

Northwest Fisheries Science Center

Kolar, Cynthia

U.S. Geological Survey

Lathrop, Richard, Ph.D.

WI Department of Natural Resources

Lent, Bob

U.S. Geological Survey

MacKenzie, Richard, Ph.D.

U.S. Forest Service

Peterson, Jeffrey

Council on Environmental Quality

Rosen, Barry H., Ph.D.

U.S. Geological Survey

Shively, Dan (Co-chair)

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Inside back cover photos

hunters, F. Eugene Hester/USFWS. 

ranch, baker county tourism. 

telescope, Ohio Division of Wildlife. 

Resources

www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov