MANPOWER ADMINISTRATION U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

W X 31

Pilots and 

Mechanics in 

Civil Aviation 

^BBV-VV

A STUDY OF

MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS

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MANPOWER ADMINISTRATION

Malcolm R. Lovell, Administrator

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

George P. Shultz, Secretary

BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Geoffrey H. Moore, Commissioner

Pilots and 

Mechanics in 

Civil Aviation

laev-yy

A S T U D Y O F

M A N P O W E R R E Q U I R E M E N T S

Pant I, Current Situation and the Short-Range

Outlook [Manpower Administration)

Part 11, Long-Range Manpower Requirements

[Bureau of Labor Statistics)

19*70

[BLS Bulletin 1655)

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Preface

As a result of the unprecedented expansion in civil aviation during the past few years and the 

prospect of continuing growth in the 1970’s, considerable attention has been focused recently on 

the current and future supply-demand situation for trained aviation manpower. In recognition of 

the need for up-to-date comprehensive information on the manpower aspects of the civil aviation 

industry, the Department of Labor undertook this study designed to appraise current and future 

requirements and resources for pilots and mechanics in civil aviation. The study was done at the 

request and with the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Department of 

Defense—the two Federal agencies most concerned with manpower developments in civil aviation.

The study was conducted in two parts: Part I, which was prepared under the direction of the 

United States Training and Employment Service (USTES) of the Department of Labor’s Manpower 

Administration presents an analysis of current and short-range requirements and resources for pilots 

and mechanics in each of the principal sectors of civil aviation—both in the airlines and general 

aviation categories. This analysis is based on a special survey of employers in these industry groups, 

conducted by USTES in cooperation with affiliated State employment security agencies. Part II, 

conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), presents projections of long-range manpower 

requirements, also by principal sectors of civil aviation, and the methods used to derive these 

projections.

The Department of Labor is grateful for the assistance and cooperation of the airlines, firms in 

general aviation, aviation schools, aircraft manufacturers, trade associations trade unions, 

government agencies and others who cooperated generously in providing information. We especially 

would like to acknowledge the cooperation of the Air Transport Association of America, which 

encouraged all its members in advance to complete and return the questionnaires in a survey of 

firms in the various sectors of civil aviation. The work of the General Aviation District Offices of the 

FAA in following up on the nonresponding firms in the air taxi, aerial applicator, aircraft repair 

stations, and flight and ground schools segments of general aviation, was also very much 

appreciated.

The analysis of the data in the USTES portion of the study was prepared by Edward D. 

Hollander and Eleanor F. Silverman of the staff of Robert R. Nathan Associates Inc., under contract 

with the U.S. Department of Labor. The planning and preparation for the USTES-State 

employment security agency survey of employers in the civil aviation industry and the assembly of 

the survey data for analysis were by Robert L. Miller under the supervision of Harold Kuptzin, 

Chief, Division of Job Market Analysis in the USTES.

The BLS portion of the study was prepared by Richard E. Dempsey, assisted by Kevin 

Kasunic, LaVerne Lang, and David P. Lafayette. Jerry Kursban assisted in the linear regression 

analysis used to project manpower requirements. The BLS portion was conducted in the Bureau of 

Labor Statistics’ Division of Manpower and Occupational Outlook, Russel B. Flanders, Chief.

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Introduction

The growth of civil aviation during the mid-1960’s has been phenomenal—in terms of all major 

measurements of business activity: revenue, passenger traffic, air cargo carried and size of 

employment. Revenue passenger miles (including domestic and international) during 1968 passed 

the 100 billion mark—more than 3 times the record of a decade previous.1 According to the Federal 

Aviation Administration (FAA), the 152 million passengers carried in 1968 nearly tripled the 

number 10 years earlier. By 1980, FAA figures indicate, U.S. airlines are expected to fly a total of 

379 billion revenue passenger-miles and carry 470 million passengers in scheduled domestic and 

international service.

The demand for transportation of cargo by air has also increased sharply in recent 

years—topping 4.1 billion cargo-ton miles in 1968.2 By 1970, an all-cargo plane capable of carrying 

nearly 3 times as much freight as today’s largest cargo aircraft will be entering airline fleets.

At the same time, there has been a strong uptrend in all phases of business flying (executive 

transportation) and other types of general aviation activity, and the outlook for continued growth 

in the next decade is extremely favorable. The number of active general aviation aircraft rose from

85,000 in 1964 to 114,000 in 1968.3 The FAA forecast is that the number of these aircraft will 

nearly double by 1980.

In 1962, the certificated route air carriers employed 17,971 pilots, copilots, flight engineers 

and navigators. By 1967 this number had reached 30,956.4 During this same period, the number of 

mechanics employed by these carriers moved up from 34,925 to 50,016.4

The overall expansion of civil aviation activity, coupled with the pending introduction of 

jumbo and stretched jet transport and new shorthaul aircraft for local service, are expected to result 

in a further increase in the annual requirements for pilots, mechanics, and other ground service 

personnel.

The contribution of military training to commercial aviation manpower has always been 

highly significant. According to a survey conducted by the Air Transport Association in early 

1967,5 two-thirds of all pilots hired during 1966 and two-thirds of those employed at the time of 

the survey had their principal training in the military services. Military training for pilots, however, 

is today but a fraction of what it was during World War II and considerably below the peak reached 

during the Korean conflict.

Projections made as recently as 1964 with respect to manpower needs for pilots and 

mechanics in 1970 have already been greatly surpassed. The estimates erred on the low side mainly 

because while increases in productivity due to new equipment were foreseen, no one then 

anticipated the tremendous growth in passenger miles, hours flown, and the number of aircraft in 

use which has occurred in the past few years.

The study by the U.S. Training and Employment Service (USTES) and the Bureau of Labor 

Statistics (BLS) represented a two-pronged approach to manpower analysis as indicated by the 

different procedures and responsibilities of each. Most of the information for the USTES portion of 

the study was obtained through a sample survey of firms in the various segments of civil aviation. 

The questionnaire for the survey was developed with the assistance and cooperation of FAA and 

DOD. The USTES portion covers the current situation and the short-range growth requirements (to 

March 1970) for pilots and mechanics, training facilities for these occupations and their potential 

output, age of employees, and information on pilots with respect to ratings, hours flown, and 

certification to fly fixed-wing planes and/or helicopters.

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The BLS long-range projections of pilot and mechanic requirements through 1972 and 1977, 

were based on an in-depth analysis of historical trends of the factors affecting manpower 

requirements in the various sectors of civil aviation. The basic data used in developing estimates and 

projections of manpower requirements came from FAA, including forecasts of future aviation 

activity. Information on manpower utilization and expected developments in civil aviation, 

including the impact of technology on manpower requirements, were analyzed and incorporated. 

Much of the information was developed through discussions with and data obtained from civil 

aviation officials representing management, labor and government.

The coverage of the USTES and BLS portions of the study also differ in some other respects. 

The USTES portion covers civilian pilots and mechanics employed by the Army, Navy, and Air 

Force and the nonmilitary Federal agencies; the BLS portion excludes those civilian pilots and 

mechanics employed in the Army, Navy, and Air Force. The USTES portion includes in general 

aviation the pilots and mechanics employed by State and local governments; the BLS portion 

includes these workers in the government sector.

1 Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal years 1969-80, Federal Aviation Administration, January 1969.

*1969 A ir Transport Facts and Figures, Air Transport Association o f America.

3Aviation Forecast, op. cit.

41968 A ir Transport Facts and Figures, Air Transport Association o f America.

5Scheduled Airline Industry Pilot Requirements, Report by Air Transport Association, February 1967.

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Rant I

Current Situation

and the 

Short-Range Outlook

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Contents

Page

S um m ary............................................................................................................................................ 1

P ilo ts ......................................................................................................................................... 1

M echanics................................................................................................................................. 1

Pilots and mechanics employed by the Department of D efense......................................... 2

Chapter I. Pilots and mechanics ...................................................................................................... 3

Chapter II. P ilo ts....................................................................................................................... 4

Employment trends .......................................................... 4

Air carrier pilots, by ty p e .............................................................................................. 5

General aviation pilots, by industry s e c to r ................................................................. 6

Pilot certification to fly specified types of aircraft .................................................. 6

Ratings held by p ilo ts .................................................................................................... 8

Pilots age 50 years and over ........................................................................................ 9

Hours flown by p ilo ts .................................................................................................... 11

Pilot supply ............................................................................................................................. 11

Adequacy of supply................................................................................................................... 12

Pilot schools............................................................................................................................... 13

Government a id ......................................................................................................................... 15

School graduates as source of su p p ly ..................................................................................... 16

On-the-job tra in in g ................................................................................................................... 16

Conclusions................. 16

Chapter III. Mechanics ..................................................................................................................... 18

Employment trends ............................................................................................................... 18

Air carrier mechanics, by o ccu p atio n ......................................................................... 18

General aviation mechanics, by industry sector ........................................................ 20

Mechanics age 50 and o v e r...................................................................................................... 20

Mechanic supply ..................................................................................................................... 20

Aircraft mechanic schools ........................................................................................... 20

Government aid ............................................................................................................ 24

School graduates as source of supply ......................................................................... 25

Military trained m echanics........................................................................................... 26

On-the-job training ...................................................................................................... 27

C onclusions.............................................................................................................................. 28

Chapter IV. U.S. Department of Defense pilots and mechanics .................................................. 31

Civilian p i l o ts ........................................................................................................................... 31

Civilian mechanics .................................................................................................................. 31

Tables:

1. Pilots and mechanics: All civil aviation, including Department of Defense,

employment trends, 1967-70 3

2. Pilots and mechanics: All civil aviation, including Department of Defense,

percentage distribution of employment, 1967-70 .................................................. 3

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Contents—Conti nued

Tables—Continued Page

3. Pilots: Civil aviation, employment trends, all pilots, by industry division, 1967-70 . 4

4. Pilots: Civil aviation, increases in employment over specified periods, by industry

division, 1967-70 ...................................................................................................... 5

5. Pilots: Civil air carriers employment trends, by type of pilot, 1967-70 .................. 5

6 . Pilots: Civil air carriers, changes in employment over specified periods, by type of

pilot, 1967-70 ............................................................................................................ 6

7. Pilots: Civil air carriers, percentage change in employment over specified period, by

type of pilot, 1967-70 7

8 . Pilots: Civil air carriers, ratio of pilot/flight engineers to all pilots, 1967-70 ............ 7

9. Pilots: General aviation, employment trends and percentage distribution, by

industry sector, 1967-70 8

10. Pilots: General aviation, increases in employment over specified periods, by

industry sector, 1967-70 9

11. Pilots: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots

certified to fly specified types of aircraft, by industry division and sector, spring 

1968 10

12. Pilots: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of fixed-wing and

helicopter pilots, by industry division and sector, anticipated employment at 

peak 1970 11

13. Pilots: Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots

certified to fly specified types of aircraft, by industry division, spring 1968 . . . 12

14. Pilots: Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of fixed-wing and

helicopter pilots, by industry division, anticipated employment at peak 1970 . . 13

15. Pilots: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots by

highest rating held, by industry division and sector, spring 1968 ....................... 14

16. Pilots: All civil aviation, percentage distribution of airline transport rated and

commercial rated pilots, by industry division and sector, spring 1968 ................. 15

17. Pilots: All civil aviation, employed pilots whose highest rating was commercial who

also held instrument ratings, spring 1968 ............................................................... 16

18. Pilots: Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots by

highest rating held, by industry division, spring 1968 ............................................ 17

19. Pilots: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots

aged 50 years and over, spring 1968 ...................................................................... 19

20. Pilots: All civil aviation, total and average annual hours flown by pilots, year ending

April/May 1968 19

21. Pilots: Number of FAA-certificated flight and ground schools for pilots, by type of

school, 1965-68 ......................................................................................................... 20

22. Pilots: FAA-certificated pilot flight and ground schools, by state and certificated

program (rating), January 1, 1968 21

23. Mechanics: All civil aviation, employment trends, all mechanics, by industry

division, 1967-70 23

24. Mechanics: All civil aviation, increases in employment over specified periods, by

industry division, 1967-70 ....................................................................................... 23

25. Mechanics: Civil air carriers, employment trends, by type of mechanic, 1967-70 . . 24

26. Mechanics: General aviation, employment trends and percentage distribution, by

industry sector, 1967-70 .......................................................................................... 25

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Contents—Conti nued

Tables—Continued Page

27. Mechanics: General aviation, changes in employment, by industry sector, 1967-70 . 26

28. Mechanics: All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed

mechanics aged 50 years and over, spring 1968 ..................................................... 27

29. Mechanics: Number of FAA-certificated schools and approved programs (ratings)

for mechanics, by type, 1966-69 ............................................................................ 28

30. Mechanics: FAA-certificated mechanic schools, by labor area and certificated

program (rating), 1966-69 

31. U.S. Department of Defense pilots and mechanics: Civilian aviation, employment

trends, by service, 1967-70 ............................................................................................ 31

Appendixes:

A: Civil aviation, definitions of industry divisions and s e c to r s......................................... 33

B: Manpower Administration, U.S. Training and Employment Service questionnaires and

instructions, including descriptions of occupations ............................................... 35

C: USTES survey scope and methodology ................................................................................ 48

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Summary

Pilots

Of the nearly 67,000 pilots employed in civil aviation 

in the spring of 1968, 34,500 worked for air carriers,

31,800 were employed in general aviation activities, and 

about 550 were civilian employees of the Department of 

Defense.

All three divisions of the industry planned to continue to expand their pilot work forces through 1970, 

although to varying degrees. The largest and most rapid 

growth was scheduled for general aviation, where employers contemplated reaching an estimated pilot em 

ployment level of 38,000 in spring 1970, about 11,000 

above spring 1967.6 Air carriers expected to add only 

4,300 during this 3-year period, an estimated prospective 

increase of only about 1,500 pilots a year. This would 

represent a considerable slowing down and leveling off in 

the sharp uptrend which characterized the carriers’ 

employment growth in the years from 1964 to 1967. 

Reported Department of Defense civilian pilot employment expansion needs were negligible.

No shortage of pilots to meet the estimated shortterm growth requirements was experienced or anticipated by employers in the spring of 1968, with the possible exception of pilots with specialized skills and experience, such as agricultural pilots. Both major sources of 

pilot supply-those with military-training and those with 

civilian-training backgrounds—were being drawn upon. 

Civilian training facilities for pilots are adequate in 

number, highly elastic in response to increases in 

demand, and well dispersed geographically. Government 

aid to student pilots in the form of veteran’s benefits is 

exceptionally generous. All sectors of the industry 

provide on-the-job training.

Of the approximately 34,500 pilots and copilots 

employed by civil air carriers in spring 1968, about 

1,250 or 3.5 percent were flight instructors, according to 

estimates based on the U.S. Training and Employment 

Service (USTES) survey. In addition, about 4,000 pilots 

were engaged in providing instruction in flying at general 

aviation flight and ground schools. Both major divisions 

of the industry contemplated increases in their flight

6 Expansion plans o f general aviation firms, particularly

those in the executive transportation and air taxi sectors, may be

adversely affected by the FAA’s new flight-rationing regulation

limiting IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) nonairline flying at five

airfields serving Washington, New York, and Chicago. The rule

went into effect on June 1, 1969.

instructor employment and expected no difficulty in 

meeting their needs.

Nearly a third of all pilots and copilots, excluding 

flight instructors, employed by route air carriers in 

spring 1968 were also qualified flight engineers, and no 

change in this proportion was contemplated during the 

period under review.

More than 92 percent of all employed civil aviation 

pilots were certified to fly fixed-wing aircraft only. The 

proportion was about 97 percent for route airlines and 

87 percent in general aviation, where the remainder were 

certified to fly helicopters only or both fixed-wing 

aircraft and helicopters. Some increase by peak 1970 in 

the proportions of fixed-wing pilots employed was 

expected in all sectors except industrial/special flying.

Airline transport ratings were held by nearly 43 

percent of all employed civil aviation pilots in the spring 

of 1968—about 49 percent of those on carriers and 

about 36 percent of those employed in general aviation. 

Nearly 87 percent of all employed pilots whose highest 

rating was commercial were also instrument-rated.

About 11 percent of all employed pilots were 50 

years of age or over in the spring of 1968. The 

proportion for route airlines, where the compulsory 

retirement age is 60, was 9.4 percent. For general 

aviation firms it was 12.6 percent.

Approximately 32,355,000 flight hours were logged 

by professional civilian pilots in the year ending April/ 

May 1968, of which route airlines accounted for about 

half. Annual hours flown per pilot averaged 512 for the 

entire industry, with route airline pilots (excluding flight 

instructors) flying an average of 522, and all general 

aviation pilots combined, an average of 509 hours. There 

was wide variation among general aviation sectors in the 

average hours flown by pilots annually, ranging from 

166 in industrial/special flying to 763 in air taxi 

operations.

Mechanics

Employment of civilian aircraft mechanics in the 

spring of 1968 totaled 144,000, more than twice the 

number of pilots. Air carriers employed 51,000; general 

aviation, which includes all independent repair stations, 

engaged 54,800; and 38,400 were civilian mechanics 

employed by the Department of Defense.

The carriers and general aviation firms expected to 

continue to augment their mechanic work forces

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through 1970, but the Defense Department planned a 

small reduction. As in the case of pilots, the bulk of the 

increase was scheduled for general aviation with an 

estimated spring 1970 mechanic employment level of 

62,800, more than 11,000 above spring 1967. Air 

carriers expected to raise their mechanic employment by 

only 6,000 to a total of 55,000 during this period. By 

1970, Defense Department employment was expected to 

total several hundred below the 1967 level, after 

reaching a high of 39,500 in 1969, according to plans 

reported to the USTES in the spring of 1968.

Many reports, from both general aviation firms and 

air carriers, indicated a rising and crucial need for 

mechanics skilled in certain occupational specialties. 

These included airplane electricians and electronic, 

radio, and instrument mechanics, as well as avionic 

technicians. The need for all-around airframe and engine 

mechanics appeared to be falling off, but remained at a 

substantial level. Job opportunities in general aviation 

were best for certificated airframe and powerplant (A&P) 

mechanics who could also function as pilots.

About 15 percent of all aircraft mechanics employed 

in civil aviation, excluding the Department of Defense, 

in the spring of 1968, were 50 years of age or over, 

according to estimates based on the USTES survey of 

employers. The proportion was only about 12 percent 

for air carriers, but close to 17.5 percent in general 

aviation. There is no compulsory retirement age for 

aircraft mechanics.

Some tightness in the supply of mechanics, particularly of those with certain special technical skills, 

appeared to be developing in the spring of 1968. Half of 

the 28 labor areas surveyed by the USTES survey 

reported stringencies ranging from slight to critical. 

Employers complained of shortages of fully qualified 

and certificated airplane electricians, electronic and 

instrument mechanics, and radio and avionic technicians, 

as well as of airframe and engine mechanics.

Aircraft mechanic schools are much less numerous 

and less well dispersed geographically than are training

facilities for pilots. Graduates of many of these schools, 

the great majority of which are public institutions at 

vocational high school or technical trade school levels, 

can qualify only as trainees or apprentices ready for 

on-the-job training. The same is true of most aircraft 

mechanics with military-service training backgrounds 

only. In contrast to the situation for pilots, no special 

VA benefits beyond the standard ones are available to 

veterans who might wish to study for aircraft mechanic 

jobs. While all sectors of the industry were providing 

on-the-job training in 1968, many employers felt that 

they would nevertheless probably be unable to meet all 

anticipated short-run growth and replacement needs in 

this way, especially for mechanics with highly developed 

specialized skills.

Expansion of apprenticeship and other formal on-thejob training programs, planned sufficiently in advance of 

expected needs, might ease this problem in the future. 

More generous government student aid grants or benefits 

might encourage enrollment of veterans and others in 

the better equipped private schools and universities.

Pilots and mechanics employed by the

Department of Defense

Very few civilian pilots—550 in all—but more than

38,000 civilian aircraft mechanics were employed by the 

Defense Department in 1968. The civilian mechanic 

work force, on the basis of plans existing in the summer 

of that year, was expected to drop by more than 2,000 

between 1969 and 1970, almost entirely as a result of 

employment reductions contemplated by the Air Force.

While the bulk of Defense Department civilian aircraft mechanic employment is in the Air Force, the 

Navy accounted for a substantial proportion—about 

14,600, or 38 percent—in 1968, and expected to add 

about 1,000 between 1968 and 1970. The Army, with 

850 civilian aircraft mechanics, primarily helicopter 

mechanics, in 1968, contemplated an increase of about 

200.

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Chapter I. Pilots and Mechanics

There are more than twice as many civilian mechanics 

as pilots employed in aviation activities,7 and mechanics 

greatly outnumber pilots in each of the three major 

divisions of the industry (table 1). Air carriers employed 

three mechanics for every two pilots in 1967. In general 

aviation, which includes all aircraft repair stations, the 

ratio of mechanics to pilots was even higher. All but a 

handful of the civilian aviation employees of the military 

services were mechanics.

About 49,000, or 35.5 percent of all civilian aviation 

mechanics employed in 1967, worked for air carriers; 

about 51,500, or 37.3 percent, were in general aviation, 

mainly at repair stations; and the remainder, nearly

38.000, or more than 27 percent of the total, were 

civilian employees of the Department of Defense (table 

2). At the 1970 peak of mechanic employment of 

168,500, according to estimates based on employer 

anticipations, the air carriers will account for nearly

60.000, or 35.5 percent of the total, the same proportion as in 1967. General aviation will account for more 

than 71,000, or about 42 percent, while Defense 

Department civilian mechanic employment' will drop to 

roughly 37,000, or 22 percent of the total.

The distribution of civilian pilot employment is quite 

different from that of mechanics. Air carriers employ

PILOTS AND MECHANICS

Table. 1. All civil aviation, including Department of Defense

employment trends, 1967-70

Date

Number employed

Total Air

carriers

General

aviation

Dept, of

Defense 1'

Pilots-^

Spring of:

1967 ............................................... 60,670 33,100 27,000 570

1968 ............................................... 66,860 34,500 31,800 560

1969 (est.) .................................. 71,700 36,000 35,100 600

1970 (est.) .................................. 76,020 37,400 38,000 620

Peak of:

1967 ............................................... 66,580 34,900 31,100 580

1968 (est.) .................................. 71,220 36,300 34,300 620

1970 (est.) .................................. 82,220 39,400 42,200 620

Mechanics^/

Spring of:

1967 ............................................... 138,200 49,000 51,500 37,700

1968 ............................................... 144,200 51,000 54,800 38,400

1969 (est.) .................................... 152,900 53,000 60,400 39,500

1970 (est.) ................................... 155,100 55,000 62,800 37,300

Peak of:

1967 ............................................... 150,000 53,300 58,000 38,700

1968 (est.) .................................. 157,900 55,400 62,500 40,000

1970 (est.) .................................. 168,500 59,800 71,400 37,300

^ C ivilian Aviation employees only.

“ 'includes pilots, copilots, p ilot/flight engineers, and flight instructors.

-In c lu d e s aircraft mechanics and instructors only; excludes maintenance workers such

as carpenters and electricians.

SO URCE: See appendix C. A i r C a r r ie r s — USTES survey data inflated to national totals

and adjusted on basis of relationship between F A A total em ploym ent and survey sample

data for 1967 and 1968. G e n e r a l A v i a t i o n — USTES survey data inflated to national totals

on basis of relationship between BLS em ploym ent estimates and survey sample data for

1967. N ot adjusted. D e p a r t m e n t o f D e f e n s e — National totals reported by Arm y, Navy,

Air Force.

PILOTS AND MECHANICS

Table 2. All civil aviation, including Department of Defense

percentage distribution of employment, 1967-70

Date

Percentage distribution of employment

Total Air

carriers

General

aviation

Dept, of

Defense

Pilots

Spring of:

— m r ............................................... 100.0 54.6 44.5 0.9

1968 ............................................ 100.0 51.6 47.6 .8

196C (est.) ............................... 100.0 50.2 49.0 .8

1970 (est.) ............................... 100.0 49.2 50.0 .8

Peak of:

1967 ............................................... 100.0 52.4 46.7 .9

1968 (est.) .................................. 100.0 51.0 48.2 .9

1970 ( e s t . ) .................................. 100.0 47.9 51.3 .8

Mechanics

Spring of:

1967 ............................................ 100.0 35.5 37.3 27.3

1968 ............................................... 100.0 35.4 38.0 26.6

1969 ( e s t . ) .................................. 100.0 34.7 39.5 25.8

1970 ( e s t . ) .................................. 100.0 35.5 40.5 24.0

Peak of:

1967 ............................................... 100.0 35.5 38.7 25.8

1968 (est.) ............................... 100.0 35.1 39.6 25.3

1970 (est.) .................................. 100.0 35.5 42.4 22.1

SO URCE: Based on table 1.

more pilots than does the general aviation division of the 

industry, and the Department of Defense employs very 

few. In the spring of 1967, about 33,000, or 54.6 

percent of the total of nearly 60,700 employed pilots, 

worked for carriers, and 27,000 or 44.5 percent, for 

general aviation firms. However, these proportions were 

expected to be nearly reversed by 1970. According to 

estimates based on employers’ hiring plans as reported to 

the USTES survey in the spring of 1968, pilot employment at the peak of 1970 will total 82,200, of which

39,400 or 48 percent will be on air carriers, and 42,200 

or more than 51 percent in general aviation. Defense 

Department civilian pilot employment was expected to 

increase very slightly by peak 1970, and to remain at less 

than 1 percent of total civilian pilot employment.

The two major occupational groups under reviewcivilian pilots and mechanics—differ sharply in their job 

content and qualifications as well as their labor market 

situations. In the sections which follow, they are, 

therefore, considered separately. Moreover, the civilian 

pilots and mechanics employed by the Defense Department are considered separately from those employed by 

the two other major components of the civil aviation 

industry—air carriers and general aviation. The divisions 

and sectors of the civil aviation industry are described in 

appendix A.

7 All civil aviation, including civilian employees of the

Department o f Defense.

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Chapter II. Pilots

Employment trends

About 60,000 pilots8 were employed in civil aviation9 in the spring of 1967. By the spring of 1968, 

about 6,200, or 10.3 percent, had been added. At that 

time, however, a slowing down in the rate of employment expansion over the following 2 years was contemplated. Spring 1969 pilot employment is estimated, on 

the basis of the USTES sample survey,10 at about

71,000, roughly 4,800 or 7.2 percent above spring 1968, 

and spring 1970 pilot employment at 75,400, about 

4,300 or 6.0 percent above spring 1969 (tables 3 and 4). 

If the hiring schedules anticipated by employers in the 

spring of 1968 are realized, pilot employment will total 

an estimated 81,60c11 at the peak of 1970, about 

15,600 or nearly 25 percent above the 1967 peak, and 

will represent an average increase of about 5,200 pilots a 

year for the 3-year period. Most of the contemplated 

increase is attributable to the expansion plans of the 

general aviation division of the industry.

The air carriers’ pilot work force increased only about 

1,400, or 4.5 percent, between 1967 and 1968. Similar 

annual increases of 1,400 to 1,500, or about 4.0 percent 

a year, in 1969 and 1970 are estimated. Peak 1970 

employment of pilots on all civil air carriers is estimated 

at 39,400, about 13 percent above the peak of 1967, 

and would require the net addition of about 4,500 pilots 

(1,500 a year) over the 3-year period. All but a couple of 

hundred of these would be for certificated route carriers.

PILOTS

Table 3. Civil aviation, employment trends, all pilots,

by industry division, 1967-70

Date Total

Air carriers

General

aviation All Certificated

route

Number employed

Spring of:

1967 ............................................... 60,100 33,100 31,100 27.000

1968 ...................... ................... 66,300 34.500 32,500 31,800

1969 (est.) .................................. 71,100 36,000 33,900 35,100

1970 (est.) .................................. 75,400 37,400 35,300 38,000

Peak of:

1967 ............................................... 66,000 34,900 32,800 31,100

1968 (est.) .................................. 70,600 36,300 34,200 34,300

1970 (est.) .................................. 81,600 39,400 37,100 42,200

Percentage distribution

Spring of :

1967 ............................................... 100.0 55.1 51.7 44.9

1968 ............................................... 100.0 52.0 49.0 48.0

1969 (est.) .................................. 100.0 50.6 47.7 49.4

1970 (est.) .................................. 100.0 49.6 46.8 50.4

Peak of:

1967 ............................................... 100.0 52.9 49.7 47.1

1968 (est.) .................................. 100.0 51.4 48.4 48.6

1970 (est.) .................................. 100.0 48.3 45.5 51.7

SOURCE: See table 1.

Historical data on the employment of pilots and 

other flight personnel by certificated route air carriers 

indicate that the prospective annual increases of 1,400 

to 1,500 a year for the 1967-70 period would represent 

both a sharp slow-down and a leveling out in the very 

rapid employment expansion which had been going on 

since 1964. As shown in the following tabulation, such 

an annual increase would be less than half the size of 

that which occurred between 1966 and 1967, and about 

a fourth of the 1965-66 increment of more than 5,800. 

On the other hand, it would greatly exceed the annual 

growth rate prevailing in the early 1960’s.

Changes in em ploym ent o f pilots, copilots,

flight engineers, and navigators by certificated

Years route air carriers1

1960- 61 750

1961- 62 ................................................. -125

1962- 63 340

1963- 64 ........................................ 1,240

1964- 65 2,420

1965- 66 5,835

1966- 67 3,150

1 FAA, Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, and Air Transport Association o f America, A ir Transport Facts and Figures.

Since 1967,12 general aviation firms have been 

augmenting their pilot work forces at a much faster rate 

than the carriers, and are expected to continue to do so, 

according to estimates based on the USTES survey. 

Employing 27,000 pilots in the spring of 1967, they had 

added 4,800 (a 17.8-percent increase) by spring 1968, 

and planned to add an additional 3,300 (or 10.4 percent 

more) by the spring of 1969, and 2,900 (or 8.3 percent 

more) between 1969 and 1970, to bring their total pilot 

employment up to about 38,000, or 41 percent above 

spring 1967. Plans through peak 1970 called for an 

estimated pilot work force of more than 42,000, about

11,000 or nearly 36 percent above peak 1967, compared

8 The term “pilot” as used in this survey includes pilots,

copilots, pilot/flight engineers, and flight instructors, unless

otherwise specified. Each occupation is described in Appendix B.

9 Air carriers and general aviation, excluding civilian employees o f the Department o f Defense, who are considered in

Section IV, but including nondefense government employees.

10 Manpower Administration, U.S. Training and Employment Service, April/May 1968, see Appendixes B and C.

11 This estimate was made before United Airlines was

required, by union agreement, to have three pilots instead o f two

on its two-engine Boeing 737’s. This will add 400 to pilot

requirements.

12 Earlier figures are not available.

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with an estimated increase of 4,500 or 13 percent for air 

carriers. To reach this estimated peak 1970 employment 

level, general aviation firms would have to add an 

average of nearly 3,700 pilots a year during the 3-year 

period from peak 1967 to peak 1970.

If all contemplated employment growth is realized, 

there will be a continued change in the distribution of 

pilot employment between the two major components 

of the civil aviation industry. By the spring of 1968, 

general aviation firms had already increased their share 

of total pilot employment13 to 48 percent from 45 

percent in the previous spring. At the estimated peak 

1970 employment level, this proportion would rise to 

nearly 52 percent, while the proportion for air carrier 

pilot employment would decline from 55 percent in

1967 to 48 percent.

In summary, net 1967-70 requirements of the civil 

aviation industry for pilots, for purposes of growth only 

and not including replacements, are estimated at around 

5,200 a year, on the basis of employer plans reported in 

spring 1968. Over the 3-year period, it is estimated that 

air carriers would require an average of roughly 1,500 

pilots a year, and general aviation firms an average of 

about 3,700 pilots a year, to reach estimated peak 1970 

staff levels.

A ir carrier pilots, b y type. The USTES survey of spring

1968 provided a breakdown, for air carriers only, of 

pilot employment by type, from which it was possible to 

estimate the varying prospective employment trends 

during the 1967-70 period under review for: All pilots 

and copilots, including flight instructors; pilots and

PILOTS

Table 4. Civil aviation, increases in employment over specified periods,

by industry division, 1967-70

Date Total

Air carriers

General

aviation

All Certificated

route

Employment increases

Spring of:

1967-68 ........................................ 6,200 1,400 1,400 4,800

1968-69 (est.) ............................ 4,800 1,500 1,400 3,300

1969-70 (est.) ............................ 4,300 1,400 1,400 2,900

1967-70 (est.) ............................ 15,300 4,300 4,200 11,000

Peak of:

1967-68 (est.) ............................ 4,600 1,400 1,400 3,200

1968-70 (est.) ............................ 11,000 3,100 2,900 7,900

1967-70 (est.) ............................ 15,600 4,500 4,300 11,100

Percentage increases

Spring of:

1967-68 ........................................ 10.3 4.2 4.5 17.8

1968-69 (est.) ............................ 7.2 4.3 4.3 10.4

1969-70 (est.) ............................ 6.0 3.9 4.1 8.3

1967-70 (est.) ............................ 25.5 13.0 13.5 40.7

Peak of:

1967-68 (est.) ............................ 7.0 4.1 4.3 10.3

1968-70 (est.) ............................ 15.6 8.5 8.5 23.0

1967-70 (est.) ............................ 23.6 12.9 13.1 35.7

PILOTS

Table 5. Civil air carriers em ploym ent trends,

by type o f pilot, 1967-70

Date

Number employed

Pilots and copilots

Flight

instructors Including

flight

instructors

Excluding

flight

instructors

All air carriers

Spring of:

1967 .................................................. 33,100 31,910 1,190

1968 .................................................. 34,500 33,255 1,245

1969 (est.) ..................................... 36,000 34,700 1,300

1970 (est.) ..................................... 37,400 36,050 1,350

Peak of:

1967 .................................................. 34,900 33,655 1,245

1968 (est.) ..................................... 36,300 35,000 1,300

1970 (est.) ..................................... 39,400 38,000 1,400

Certificated route air carriers only

Spring of:

T967- .................................................. 31,100 29,980 1,120

1968 .................................................. 32,500 31,330 1,170

1969 (est.) ..................................... 33,900 32,680 1,220

1970 (est.) ..................................... 35,300 34,030 1,270

Peak of:

1967 .................................................. 32,800 31,620 1,180

1968 (est.) ..................................... 34,200 32,970 1,230

1970 (est.) ..................................... 37,100 35,770 1,330

SOURCE: Total employment as shown in table 3 distributed on basis of USTES

survey sample data.

copilots, excluding flight instructors; flight instructors; 

and pilots and copilots, excluding flight instructors, who 

are also flight engineers (tables 5, 6, 7, and 8).

Of the 33,100 pilots and copilots employed by all 

civil air carriers in spring 1967, 1,190 (or 3.6 percent) 

were flight instructors. Estimates indicate that employers expected to add about 160 by the spring of 

1970, and that peak 1970 flight instructor employment 

would be 155 above the peak of 1967. The expansion of 

flight instructor employment was expected to proceed at 

about the same rate as that for all other pilots as table 7 

shows.

Nearly a third (31 percent) of all pilots and copilots, 

excluding flight instructors, employed by route air 

carriers in spring 1968 were also qualified flight engineers. The figures in table 8 reflect fairly accurately a 

cockpit manning pattern consisting of a crew of three 

pilots, of whom at least one is also a flight engineer. No 

change in the ratio of pilot/flight engineers (or second 

officers, as they are sometimes called) to all pilots was 

contemplated by route carriers throughout the 1967-70 

period under review.

Route airlines employed 9,420 pilot/engineers in the 

spring of 1967 and expected to add an estimated 1,230 

by spring 1970. At the estimated peak of pilot employ13 Excluding civilian employees o f the Department o f

Defense.

SOURCE: Based on table 3.

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PILOTS

Table 6. Civil air carriers, changes in em ploym ent over specified periods,

by type o f pilot, 1967-70

Date

Increases in number employed

Pilots and copilots

Flight

instructors

Including

flight

instructors

Excluding

flight

instructors

All air carriers

Spring of:

1967-68 ............................................ 1,400 1,345 55

1968-69 (est.) .............................. 1,500 1,445 55

1969-70 (est.) .............................. 1,400 1,350 50

1967-70 (est.) .............................. 4,300 4,140 160

Peak of:

1967-68 (est.) .............................. 1,400 1,345 55

1968-70 (est.) .............................. 3,100 3,000 100

1967-70 (est.) .............................. 4,500 4,345 155

Certificated route air carriers only

Spring of:

1967-68 ............................................ 1,400 1,350 50

1968-69 (est.) .............................. 1,400 1,350 50

1969-70 (est.) .............................. 1,400 1,350 50

1967-70 (est.) .............................. 4,200 4,050 150

Peak of:

1967-68 (est.) .............................. 1,400 1,350 50

1968-70 (^Tt) .............................. 2,900 2,800 100

1967-70 (est.) .............................. 4,300 4,150 150

SOURCE: Based on table 5.

ment during 1970, a total of approximately 10,650 

pilot/flight engineers, or 1,290 more than at peak 1967, 

would be employed. This would represent an average 

annual increase of about 400 over the 3-year period.

Several major airlines reported that they engaged 

professional flight engineers or flight navigators who 

were not qualified pilots.

General aviation p ilo ts, b y in dustry sector. Nearly 44 

percent of the estimated 31,800 professional pilots 

employed in the general aviation division of the civil 

aviation industry in 1968 were engaged in executive 

transportation activities (table 9). Air taxi operations 

accounted for about a fourth (24 percent) and instructional activities at pijot flight and ground schools for 13 

percent. Firms engaged in aerial application, such as crop 

dusting, and in industrial/special activities, such as 

pipeline patrolling, each employed about 5 percent of all 

general aviation pilots. State and local government and 

nondefense Federal agency flying activities accounted 

for more than 2,000 pilots, or nearly 7 percent of the 

total. Repair stations engaged 650, or 2 percent of the 

estimated total, for checking out and testing aircraft.

Sharp employment increases to peak 1970, assuming 

the availability of pilots for jobs in general aviation, were 

planned by all sectors. All general aviation firms combined hoped to expand their pilot work forces by an 

estimated 11,000, or more than a third, between peak

1967 and peak 1970 (table 10). Numerically, the 

greatest increases were scheduled for executive transportation, pilot schools, and air taxi operations, many of 

which also double as schools. Contemplated increases for 

other general aviation sectors, while relatively small in 

number, represented substantial proportional expansion. 

Industrial/special operators, for example, expected to 

add an estimated 660, for a more than 40-percent 

increase in pilot employment. The contemplated addition of roughly 150 to 550 pilots by peak 1970 in each 

of the other general aviation sectors would represent 

about a one-fourth increase in each pilot work force 

above peak 1967.

Rough estimates of the average annual growth requirement for pilots in each of the general aviation 

sectors, for the 3 peak years 1967-70, based on 

employers’ reports, indicate that about 2,500 of the 

estimated total demand of 3,700 a year would arise from 

the expansion plans of executive transportation and air 

taxi operations combined. The next largest requirement, 

600 a year, would be for pilot instructors at schools. A 

summary tabulation follows:

Estim ated average

annual requirement

for contem plated

General aviation expansion o f pilot

industry sector em ploy men t, 196 7- 70

Executive transp ortation.................................... 1,300

Air ta x is.................................................................... 1,200

Flight and ground schools ................................. 600

Industrial/special.................................................... 220

Government (n o n m ilita ry )................................. 190

Aerial application ................................................. 160

Repair sta tio n s....................................................... 60

Total .................................................... 3,730

Not all sectors, of course, would require the same 

kinds of pilots. As executive transportation and air taxi 

operators increase their use of larger and more sophisticated aircraft, they will need more pilots trained on this 

kind of equipment. On the other hand, a good part of 

the demand in industrial/special work, for example, 

would be for helicopter pilots, and aerial application 

companies would need specialized pilots well-trained in 

agricultural flying activities.

Pilot certification to fly specified

types of aircraft

Of the total of 66,260 pilots employed in the civil 

aviation industry in the spring of 1968, 61,255, or 92.4 

percent, were certified to fly fixed-wing aircraft only; 

815, or 1.2 percent, were certified to fly helicopters

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only; and 4,190, or 6.3 percent, were certified to fly 

both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters, according to 

estimates based on the USTES survey of employers 

(table 11). More than 97 percent of the pilots employed 

by air carriers had fixed-wing certification only, while 

the corresponding proportion for general aviation firms 

was about 87 percent, with 2.5 percent certified to fly 

helicopters only, and about 10 percent certified to fly 

both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters.

There was considerable variation among the sectors of 

the general aviation division of the industry in the type 

of certification held by employed pilots. The proportions of pilots with only fixed-wing certification ranged 

from around 90 percent in executive transportation, 

pilot schools, and nonmilitary government agencies, 

down to 40 percent in industrial/special activities, of 

which about 28 percent were certified to fly helicopters 

only, and 32 percent to fly both fixed-wing aircraft and 

helicopters. In no other sector did helicopter-only 

certification bulk nearly so large, ranging from 0.7 

percent in nonmilitary government to 3 percent in repair 

stations. However, in all other general aviation sectors, 

sizable proportions of all pilots (ranging from 7 to 12 

percent) were certified to fly both fixed-wing aircraft 

and helicopters.

Asked to estimate the distribution of their anticipated peak 1970 employment as between fixed-wing and

PILOTS

Table 7. Civil air carriers, percentage change in em ploym ent

over specified period, by type o f pilot, 1967-70

Date

Percent change in employment

Pilots and copilots

Flight

instructors

Including

flight

instructors

Excluding

flight

instructors

All air carriers

Spring of:

1967-68 ............................................ 4.2 4.2 4.6

1968-69 (est.) ............................... 4.3 4.3 4.4

1969-70 (est.) ............................... 3.9 3.7 3.8

1967-70 (est.) ............................... 13.0 13.0 13.4

Peak of:

1967-68 (est.) ............................... 4.0 4.0 4.4

1968-70 (est.) ............................... 8.5 8.6 7.7

1967-70 (est.) ............................... 12.9 12.9 12.4

Certificated route air carriers only

Spring of:

1967-68 ............................................ 4.5 4.5 4.5

1968-69 (est.) ............................... 4.3 4.3 4.3

1969-70 (est.) ............................... 4.1 4.1 4.1

1967-70 (est.) ............................... 13.5 13.5 13.4

Peak of:

1967-68 (est.) ............................... 4.3 4.3 4.2

1968-70 (est.) ........................ 8.5 8.5 8.1

1967-70 (est.) ............................... 13.1 13.1 12.7

SOURCE: Based on table 5.

PILOTS

Table 8. Civil air carriers, ratio o f pilot/flight engineers

to all pilots, 1967-70

Pilots and copilots, excl. flight instructorsDate

Total Who are also flight engineers

. number Number || Percent of total

All air carriers

Spring of:

1967 ................................................... 31,910 9,540 29.9

1968 ................................................... 33,255 9,940 29.9

1969 (est.) ...................................... 34,700

36,050

10,360

10,790

29.9

1970 (est.) ...................................... 29.9

Peak of:

1967 ................................................... 33,655 10,040 29.8

1968 (est.) ...................................... 35.000

38.000

10,460

11,350

29.9

1970 (est.) ...................................... 29.9

Certificated route air carriers only

Spring of:

1967 ................................................... 29,980 9,420 31.4

1968 ................................................... 31,330 9,815 31.3

1969 (est.) ..................................... 32,680

34,030

10,230 31.3

1970 (est.) ..................................... 10,650 31.3

Peak of:

1967 ................................................... 31,620 9,920 31.4

1968 (est.) ...................................... 32,970

35,770

10,330 31.3

1970 (est.) ..................................... 11,210 31.3

SOURCE: Total employment as shown in table 3 distributed on basis of USTES

survey sample data.

helicopter pilots, civil aviation firms as a whole placed 

fixed-wing pilots at 95 percent of the prospective total 

and helicopter pilots at 5 percent (table 12). Route 

carriers, of which only a few are helicopter airlines, 

expected to have about 200 helicopter pilots out of an 

estimated total pilot employment of approximately

37,000. The employment of helicopter pilots in general 

aviation, on the other hand, was expected to total an 

estimated 4,000, or 9.5 percent of a prospective 42,000, 

at peak 1970. The executive transportation and air taxi 

sectors each anticipated having about 900 helicopter 

pilots on their payrolls, and industrial/special companies 

expected that about 1,500, or two-thirds, of their 

employed pilots would be qualified to fly helicopters, 

according to estimates based on the survey sample.

More detailed breakdowns, by type of pilot as well as 

by type of certification, are available from the survey for 

air carriers only (tables 13 and 14). They indicate that, 

both in 1968 and at estimated prospective peak employment in 1970, there is virtually no difference between 

flight instructors and all other pilots in the distribution 

of employees by type of certification. In the spring of 

1968, of 33,255 noninstructor pilots and copilots 

employed by air carriers, 97.3 percent were certified to 

fly fixed-wing aircraft only, 0.1 percent were certified to 

fly helicopters only, and 2.6 percent were certified to fly 

both fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. The corresponding proportions for flight instructors were almost

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identical. By peak 1970, air carriers expected that 99.4 

percent of their projected total noninstructor pilot 

complement would consist of fixed-wing pilots and that

0.6 percent would be helicopter pilots. The corresponding proportions for instructors were, again, almost 

identical.

Ratings held by pilots

Airline transport ratings (ATR’s) were held by 43 

percent of all employed civil aviation pilots in the spring 

of 1968, while for 56 percent the highest rating held was 

commercial (table 15). The proportion of pilots holding 

A TR’s was considerably higher for carriers—49 

percent—than for general aviation—about 36 percent. 

Conversely, about half of all air carrier pilots had ratings 

no higher than commercial. These were, presumably, 

functioning as copilots or second officers. The proportion of commercial rating holders in general aviation was 

62 percent, with 2 percent of the total having other 

ratings, mainly helicopter or instructor, as their highest.

Variations among general aviation sectors in the 

proportion of employed pilots with ATR’s was extremely wide, ranging from 2 percent in aerial application to 57.5 percent in executive transportation, a higher 

proportion than that reported for carriers, as might be 

expected where there is frequently only one pilot in the 

cockpit. Roughly 80-90 percent of pilots employed in 

air taxi, aerial application, industrial/special, and instructional activities held no more than a commercial 

certificate, as did 58 percent of nonmilitary government 

pilots.

Viewed another way, as in table 16, about 60 percent 

of the 28,360 ATR’s employed in 1968 worked for civil 

air carriers, with more than 56 percent of the total 

employed by certificated route airlines. General aviation 

activities employed 40 percent of all employed ATR’s, 

with executive transportation accounting for 28 percent 

of the civil aviation total.

Of the 37,250 employed pilots whose highest rating 

was commercial, 47 percent were employed by carriers 

of all types and about 44 percent by certificated route 

airlines. About 16 percent were engaged in the air taxi 

business, more than 15 percent in executive transportaPl LOTS

Table 9. General aviation, employment trends and percentage distribution, by industry sector, 1967-70

Date Total Executive

transportation

Air

taxi

Aerial

application

I ndustrial/

special

Flight and

ground

schools

Government^ Repair

stations

Number employed

Spring of:

1967 .......................... 27,000 11,900 6,200 1,500 1,500 3,300 2,000 600

1968 .......................... 31,800 13,900 7,640 1,750 1,620 4,100 2,140 650

1969 (est.) ............... 35,100 14,770 9,110 1,900 1,680 4,600 2,300 710

1970 (est.) ............... 38,000 15,520 9,970 2,110 2,070 5,200 2,400 730

Peak of:

1967 .......................... 31,100 13,400 7,500 1,880 1,630 3,950 2,100 640

1968 (est.) ............... 34,300 14,200 8,680 2,020 1,770 4,570 2,350 710

1970 (est.) ................ 42,200 17,230 11,070 2,350 2,300 5,780 2,660 810

Percentage distribution

Spring of:

1967 .......................... 100.0 44.1 23.0 5.5 5.5 12.2 7.4 2.2

1968 .......................... 100.0 43.7 24.0 5.5 5.1 12.9 6.7 2.0

1969 (est.) ............... 100.0 42.1 26.0 5.4 4.8 13.1 6.6 2.0

1970 (est.) ............... 100.0 40.8 26.2 5.6 5.4 13.7 6.3 1.9

Peak of:

1967 ........................... 100.0 43.1 24.1 6.0 5.2 12.7 6.8 2.1

1968 (est.) ............... 100.0 41.4 25.3 5.9 5.2 13.3 6.9 2.1

1970 (est.) ............... 100.0 40.8 26.2 5.6 5.5 13.7 6.3 1.9

-^Excluding Department of Defense.

SOURCE: See table 1.

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PILOTS

Table 10. General aviation, increases in employment over specified periods, by industry sector, 1967-70

Date Total Executive

transportation

Air

taxi

Aerial

application

Industrial/

special

Flight and

ground

schools

Government-^ Repair

stations

Increase in number employed

Spring of:

1967-68 ..................... 4,800 2,000 1,440 250 120 800 140 50

1968-69 (est.) .... 3,300 870 1,470 150 60 500 160 60

1969-70 (est.) .... 2,900 750 860 210 390 600 100 20

1967-70 (est.) .... 11,000 3,620 3,770 610 570 1,900 400 130

Peak of:

1967-68 (est.) .... 3,200 800 1,180 140 130 610 250 70

1968-70 (est.) .... 7,900 3,030 2,390 330 530 1,210 310 100

1967-70 (est.) .... 11,100 3,830 3,570 470 660 1,820 560 170

Percentage increase

Spring of:

1967-68 ..................... 17.8 16.8 23.2 16.6 8.0 24.2 7.0 8.3

1968-69 (est.) .... 10.4 6.3 19.2 8.6 3.7 12.2 7.5 9.2

1969-70 (est.) .... 8.3 5.1 9.4 11.1 23.2 13.4 4.3 2.8

1967-70 (est.) .... 40.7 30.4 60.8 40.7 38.0 57.6 20.0 21.7

Peak of:

1967-68 (est.) .... 10.3 6.0 15.7 7.4 8.6 15.7 11.9 10.9

1968-70 (est.) .... 23.0 21.3 27.5 16.3 29.9 26.5 13.2 14.1

1967-70 (est.) .... 35.7 28.6 47.6 25.0 41.1 46.3 26.7 26.6

SOURCE: Based on table 9.

tion, 8.6 percent in instructional flying, and 3-4 percent 

in each of the other sectors of general aviation, except 

repair stations where the proportion was lower.

All but a few of the 650 employed pilots whose 

highest rating was other than airline transport or 

commercial (mainly instructor or helicopter) were in 

general aviation, with 25 percent of the total in air taxi 

operations, about 22 percent in aerial application, 18.5 

percent in executive transportation, and 14 percent in 

both flight and ground schools and nonmilitary government.

The USTES April/May 1968 survey of employers also 

gathered information on the number of employed pilots 

whose highest rating was commercial who also held 

instrument ratings. Estimates based on the survey sample 

are shown in table 17. According to these estimates, for 

all civil aviation activities combined, close to 32,300 

pilots out of a total of 37,250 whose highest rating was 

commercial, or nearly 87 percent, also held instrument 

ratings. Virtually all carrier pilots whose highest rating 

was commercial, whether these are considered to include 

or exclude flight instructors, also held instrument 

ratings. The corresponding proportion for all general

aviation pilots was 75 percent. It was 75 percent or more 

in each sector of general aviation except aerial application and industrial/special where, presumably, an instrument rating is less essential for the work performed.

More detailed estimates, for air carriers only, in which 

the highest ratings held are related to the various types 

of pilots employed, are shown in table 18. From this it 

may be seen, for example, that an estimated 49 percent 

of the 31,330 pilots and copilots, excluding flight 

instructors, employed in the spring of 1968 by certificated route carriers held air transport ratings, whereas 

for 51 percent the highest rating held was commercial. 

The distribution of flight instructor employment by 

type of rating held was virtually the same as that for all 

other pilots. Of the 31,330 route carrier pilots and 

copilots who were not flight instructors, about 9,800 

were pilot/flight engineers (second officers). Nearly half 

of these held air transport ratings.

Pilots age 50 years and over

The age of employed pilots is one of the significant 

factors to be considered in estimating the probable level 

of new pilot hires to be required as the result of attrition

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through retirement or death. Most air carrier pilots aged 

50 and over are approaching retirement age, since 

Federal Aviation Administration Regulation 121, Part 

383, stipulates that the use of the services of pilots who 

have reached their 60th birthday is not permitted on 

scheduled air carriers. Moreover, most airline pilots have 

the option to choose early retirement at age 55. No age 

limitations are imposed by the Federal Government on 

pilots employed by nonscheduled air carriers or by 

general aviation firms.

It is estimated that about 11 percent of all pilots 

employed in the civil aviation industry in the spring of 

1968 were 50 years of age or over (table 19). The 

preference of air carriers, as distinguished from the 

general aviation division of the industry, for younger 

pilots, as well as the effect of the airlines’ early

retirement provisions, are reflected in the figures. Only 

9.4 percent of carrier pilots were in the 50-years-or-over 

category, compared with 12.6 percent in general aviation. Among the general aviation industry sectors, the 

use of older pilots ranged from 7.4 percent of all those 

employed in industrial/special flying to 18.7 percent in 

nonmilitary government.

Of the 7,265 employed pilots aged 50 years and over 

in the spring of 1968, about 3,260 were employed by 

carriers and about 4,000 were in general aviation. 

Carriers accounted for 52 percent of all the pilots 

employed in civil aviation in the spring of 1968, but for 

only about 45 percent of those aged 50 and over. Route 

carriers, with 49 percent of all pilots, employed 42 

percent of the older ones. General aviation employed 48 

percent of all civil aviation pilots, but 55 percent of

PILOTS

Table 11. All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution* of employed pilots

certified to fly specified types of aircraft, by industry division and sector, spring 1968

Industry division/sector

All pilots

and

copilots1'

Certified to flyFixed-wing

only

Helicopter

only

Fixed-wing

and helicopter

Number employed

Grand total........................................................................................... 66,260 61,255 815 4,190

Civil air carriers, to tal......................................................................... 34,500 33,555 35 910

Certificated ro u te......................................................................... 32,500 31,610 35 855

O th e rs ........................................................................................... 2,000 1,945 (2/) 55

General aviation, t o t a l...................................................................... 31,760 27,700 780 3,280

Executive transportation.............................................................. 13,880 12,680 140 1,060

Air ta x i............................. ............................................................. 7,640 6,660 80 900

Aerial application......................................................................... 1,750 1,510 30 210

1 ndustrial/special......................................................................... 1,620 640 460 520

Flight and ground schools........................................................... 4,080 3,680 40 360

Government.................................................................................. 2,140 1,980 15 145

Repair stations ............................................................................ 650 550 20 80

Percentage distribution

Grand total .............................................................. ........................ 100.0 92.4 1.2 6.3

Civil air carriers, total......................................................................... 100.0 97.3 0.1 2.6

Certificated route.......................................................................... 100.0 97.3 0.1 2.6

O th e rs ........................................................................................... 100.0 97.3 - 2.8

General aviation, t o t a l...................................................................... 100.0 87.2 2.5 10.3

Executive transportation.............................................................. 100.0 91.4 1.0 7.6

Air ta x i............................. ............................................................. 100.0 87.2 1.0 11.8

Aerial application......................................................................... 100.0 86.3 1.7 12.0

Industrial/special......................................................................... 100.0 39.5 28.4 32.1

Flight and ground schools........................................................... 100.0 90.2 1.0 8.8

Government.................................................................................. 100.0 92.5 0.7 6.8

Repair stations............................................................................... 100.0 84.6 3.1 12.3

10

^Includ ing flight instructors.

-'F e w e r than 5.

SOURCE: Total em ployment as shown In tables 3 and 9 distributed on basis of USTES survey sample data.

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those in the 50-years-and-over age bracket. A fourth of 

the 7,265 older civil pilots were engaged in executive 

transportation and about an eighth in air taxi activities.

Hours flown by pilots

Pilots and copilots employed in the civil aviation 

industry flew an estimated total of 32,355,000 hours in 

the year ending April/May 1968 (see table 20). For the 

entire industry combined, this amounted to an average 

of 512 flight hours per pilot.

Air carriers accounted for 17.4 million, or about 54 

percent, of the estimated total number of hours flown. 

Approximately 16.4 million hours, or just half of the 

grand total, were flown by route airline pilots, whereas 

nearly 15 million hours, or 46 percent of the grand total, 

were logged by general aviation pilots. Executive transportation and air taxi pilots combined flew more than 

10 million hours, nearly a third of the total for all civil 

aviation.

Pilots and copilots employed by certificated route air 

carriers, where maximum monthly flight time per pilot is 

regulated by both the FAA and union agreements, flew, 

on the average, 515 hours during the year. If flight 

instructors are eliminated from the total for route 

carriers, the average for the remaining pilots rises to 522 

hours. Flight instructors employed by route carriers flew 

an average of only 344 hours, indicating perhaps that 

much of the on-the-job flight instruction was given on 

the ground.

All general aviation pilots combined averaged 509 

flight hours during the year, but there was extremely 

wide variation among the component sectors of the 

industry division. Average utilization of pilot time 

appeared to be much higher in the air taxi industry (763 

hours flown per pilot) and in the flying schools (708 

hours), than in executive transportation (407 hours), or 

in any of the other general aviation sectors, in which 

average annual hours flown ranged downward to 208 in 

nondefense government activities and 166 in industrial/ 

special operations. Only in air taxi and flying school 

activities and at repair stations did the average annual 

hours flown exceed the average for pilots and copilots 

employed by route carriers. But the excess, for the first 

two of these sectors, was very large—40 to 50 percent.

Pilot supply

Evaluation of the supply of pilots available to the 

civil aviation industry may be considered from various 

viewpoints—in terms of supply available to each of the 

two major divisions of the industry (airlines and general 

aviation), in terms of the output of the two major

PILOTS

Table 12. All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of fixed-wing

and helicopter pilots, by industry division and sector,

anticipated employment at peak 1970

Industry division/sector

A nticip ated em ploym ent at peak 1970

A ll pilots

and

c o p ilo ts ^

Fixed-w ing

pilots

H elicopter

pilots

N um ber o f em ployees

G rand t o t a l.................................................. 8 1 ,6 0 0 7 7 ,3 8 0 4 ,2 1 5

Civil air carriers, t o t a l ............................ 3 9 ,4 0 0 3 9 ,1 8 0 2 1 5

C ertificated r o u t e ............................. 3 7 ,1 0 0 3 6 ,9 1 0 2 05

O t h e r s .................................................. 2 ,3 0 0 2 ,2 7 0 10

General aviation, t o t a l ......................... 4 2 ,2 0 0 3 8 ,2 0 0 4 ,0 0 0

Executive tra n s p o rta tio n .............. 1 7 ,2 3 0 1 6 ,3 5 0 8 8 0

A ir t a x i .................................................. 1 1 ,0 7 0 1 0 ,1 6 0 9 1 0

A erial a p p lic a tio n ............................ 2 ,3 5 0 2 ,1 2 0 2 3 0

In d u s tria l/s p e c ia l............................ 2 ,3 0 0 7 6 0 1 ,5 4 0

Flight and ground schools .... 5 ,7 8 0 5 ,5 8 0 2 0 0

G o v e rn m e n t....................................... 2 ,6 6 0 2 ,5 2 0 140

Repair s tations.................................... 8 1 0 7 1 0 100

Percentage distrib ution

G rand to t a l.............................................. 1 00 .0 9 4 .8 5 .2

Civil air carriers, t o t a l ............................ 1 00 .0 9 9 .4 0 .5

C ertificated r o u t e ......................... 1 00 .0 9 9 .5 0 .6

O t h e r s .............................................. 1 00 .0 9 8 .7 0 .4

General aviation t o t a l ............................ 1 00 .0 9 0 .5 9 .5

Executive tra n s p o rta tio n .............. 1 00 .0 9 4 .9 5.1

A ir t a x i .................................................. 1 00 .0 9 1 .8 8 .2

Aerial a p p lic a tio n ............................. 1 00 .0 9 0 .2 9 .8

In d u s tria l/s p e c ia l............................ 1 0 0 .0 3 3 .0 6 7 .0

Flight and ground schools .... 1 00 .0 9 6 .5 3 .5

G o v e rn m e n t....................................... 1 00 .0 9 4 .7 5 .3

Repair statio n s.................................... 1 0 0 .0 8 7 .7 1 2.3

^ In c lu d in g flig h t instructors.

S O U R C E : To tal em ploym ent as shown in tables 3 and 9 distributed on basis of

U STES survey sample data.

sources of supply (civilian and military), or in terms of 

the type of pilot involved (sophisticated aircraft, light 

aircraft, helicopter, etc.). Supply in the context of each 

of these approaches is discussed briefly below.

The airlines prefer to hire military trained, young 

pilots (under 35 years of age) who have had considerable 

experience in flying heavy aircraft and, secondarily, apt, 

civilian-trained, young, commercial-rated pilots who 

have logged at least 1,000 flight hours, preferably on 

heavy equipment. Hiring specifications in regard to 

physical condition and educational achievement are very 

high. Because of union seniority rules, both types of 

recruit are started at the bottom of the promotional 

ladder, no matter what their previous experience, and 

are assigned, at the beginning, to the lightest, cheapest, 

and least sophisticated aircraft. Reportedly, training 

(largely orientation) of these types of pilots for these 

entry jobs, which is provided by the airlines, requires 

only a few months or less, whether the pilot has a 

military or a civilian background.

General aviation sectors with relatively high proportions of heavy and sophisticated equipment, such as 

executive transport and air taxis, also look to the 

military and to qualified civilian-trained pilots, but are

11

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PILOTS

Table 13. Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots certified to

fly specified types of aircraft, by industry division, spring 1968

Total

pilots

Certified to fly -

1 ndustry division Fixed-wing

only

Helicopter

only

Fixed-wing and

helicopter

Number employed

All civil air carriers

All pilots and copilots........................................ 34,500 33,555 35 910

Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors . . . 33,255 32,345 35 875

Flight instructors................................................ 1,245 1,210 (1/) 35

Certificated route carriers

All pilots and copilots........................................ 32,500 31,610 35 855

Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors . . . 31,330 30,470 35 825

Flight instructors................................................ 1,170 1,140 (1/) 30

Percentage distribution

All civil air carriers

All pilots and copilots........................................ 100.0 97.3 0.1 2.6

Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors . . . 100.0 97.3 0.1 2.6

Flight instructors................................................ 100.0 97.2 - 2.8

Certificated route carriers

All pilots and copilots......................... .. 100.0 97.3 0.1 2.6

Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors . . . 100.0 97.3 0.1 2.6

Flight instructors................................................ 100.0 97.4 — 2.6

-^Fewer than 5.

SOURCE: Total employment as shown in table 3 distributed on basis of USTES survey sample data.

willing to hire older men, and hiring specifications are 

lower. Sectors using light equipment hire any qualified 

pilot, particularly if he is trained in a desired specialty 

such as, for example, crop dusting.

Viewed another way, young pilots released from the 

military services and young civilian commercial pilots 

with heavy aircraft experience are the major sources of 

supply for the airlines. Older military-trained pilots and 

civilian commercial pilots with adequate or specialized 

training, not necessarily on heavy equipment, are the 

major sources for general aviation.

In terms of pilot type, those with training, experience, and skill in flying heavy equipment come primarily 

from the military services; those with training and skill 

in flying light equipment, or in providing specialized 

flying services of some kind, come either from the older 

military or from civilian training facilities. Helicopter 

pilots, for both airlines and general aviation, are an 

exception; the military will continue to provide almost

all of the helicopter pilots for civil aviation, as it always 

has. Flight instructors at schools are, for the most part, a 

transient civilian-trained group seeking to log a sufficient 

number of flying hours for possible advancement to jobs 

on airlines or elsewhere in general aviation. They are 

readily available.

A d eq u a cy o f supply. The relationship of probable 

pilot supply to prospective demand may be viewed from 

the same three viewpoints. The overall supply is and 

promises to be quite adequate, at least in the short run. 

No airline reported a scarcity of qualified pilot recruits 

in the USTES survey. General aviation companies, as a 

whole, were similarly having no trouble hiring. Some, 

however, complained of retention problems. They were 

losing their company-trained pilots to the airlines or to 

government jobs as soon as they had acquired the 

requisite number of flight-hours and training. Others 

could not provide their pilots with full-time, steady

12

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employment and, consequently, competitive annual 

earnings. Some solved this problem by using their pilots 

as mechanics or to give flying instruction, as in many 

small taxi operations, in slack periods. Most general 

aviation companies, however, were finding it possible to 

hire and retain a sufficient number of qualified pilots 

who did not meet the high personnel standards of the 

airlines and were, perforce, content with general aviation 

jobs. A few, notably some of those engaged in aerial 

application activities such as crop dusting, were encountering a stringency in the supply of pilots with the 

necessary special qualifications for their particular type 

of work.

The supply of pilots with the desired background of 

military training appeared to be adequate for current 

and short-range future needs. Similarly, civilian training 

facilities appeared to be generating a sufficient number 

of professional pilots to keep the civil aviation pipeline 

filled with prospective recruits.

P ilot schools. Civilian pilot training facilities, except 

on heavy aircraft, are numerous and widely available. As 

of January 1, 1968, more than 1,700 flight and ground 

schools offered FAA-approved instruction programs to

potential pilots. In addition, there were perhaps as many 

as 1,500 noncertificated pilot schools whose course 

content and standards met FAA requirements. Many 

small general aviation companies, such as air taxis, teach 

flying in addition to their other activities, but do not 

consider that they are running “schools,” and so are not 

counted as such.

The 1,720 FAA-certificated pilot schools as of 

January 1968 represented, as table 21 shows, a substantial increase in number over the 1,182 in December 

1965,14 and there is every indication that this growth is 

continuing to the present time. Certification by FAA 

depends not on the size of the school, but on quality of 

curriculum, including actual course content, facilities, 

and equipment, as well as on qualification of instructors. 

Approved schools range from operations with one 

part-time teacher to universities offering professional 

pilot courses entailing 4 years of intense study and flight 

training. By January 1, 1968, there were 65 FAAapproved schools being operated by, or in conjunction

14 There were 953 FAA-approved schools offering flight

training in 1963, and 994 in 1964, according to FAA, “Project

Long Look,” op. cit., p. 94.

PILOTS

Table 14. Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of fixed-wing and

helicopter pilots, by industry division, anticipated employment at peak 1970

Anticip. empl. at peak 1970

Industry division Total

pilots

Fixed-wing

pilots

Helicopter

pilots

Number of employees

All civil air carriers

All pilots and copilots................................................................................................... 39,400 39,185 215

Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors................................................................. 38,000 37,790 210

Flight instructors............................................................................................................ 1,400 1,395 5

Certificated route carriers

All pilots and copilots.................................................................................................... 37,100 36,895 205

Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors................................................................. 35,780 35,580 200

Flight instructors......................................... ................................................................... 1,320 1,315 5

Percentage distribution

All civil air carriers

All pilots and copilots.................................................................................................... 100.0 99.5 0.5

Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors................................................................. 100.0 99.4 0.6

Flight instructors............................................................................ □ ............................. 100.0 99.6 0.4

Certificated route carriers

All pilots and copilots.................................................................................................... 100.0 99.4 0.6

Pilots and copilots, except flight instructors 100.0 95.9 0.5

Flight instructors............................................................................................................. 100.0 99.6 0.4

SOURCE: Total employment as shown In table 3 distributed on basis of USTES survey sample data.

13

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with, an accredited college or university. About 185 

schools had attained sufficient stature to be granted 

examining authority. But the vast majority were small 

enterprises with a few pupils, conducted on a part-time 

basis at small fields in relatively light aircraft, frequently 

in conjunction with other commercial operations which 

constituted the main business.

Flight and ground training for pilots at certificated 

schools is widely available on a geographic basis, as 

shown in table 22. California had the largest number 

(235) in any one State in January 1968, with Texas 

second (142), and New York third (80). But each of the 

other 47 States and the District of Columbia had a 

substantial number in relation to its size, ranging from 2

in the District of Columbia to 66 in Pennsylvania. All 27 

labor areas for which the USTES received reports in the 

spring of 1968 indicated that they had adequate training 

facilities for pilots.

The schools offered a broad range of instruction, 

from elementary flight and ground courses through 

programs for flight instructors and commercial flying 

with instruments, as table 22 also shows. Altogether, a 

total of 7,025 instruction programs were authorized for 

the 1,720 certificated schools. About 1,600 of these 

FAA authorizations, or ratings, applied to basic and 

advanced ground school programs; 2,864 to primary and 

commercial airplane flying programs; 1,108 to instrument flying programs; and 1,257 to flight instructor

PILOTS

Table 15. All civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots by

highest rating held, by industry division and sector, spring 1968

Industry division/sector All pilots

and copilots

Pilots and copilots whose

highest rating wasAirline

transport Commercial Other

ratingl/

Number employed

Grand total.......................................................................................................... 66,260 28,360 37,250 650

Air carriers, t o t a l.............................................................................................. 34,500 16,990 17,510 &)

Certificated ro u te........................................................................................ 32,500 16,000 16,500 &)

O th e rs ......................................................................................................... 2,000 990 1,010 (2/)

General aviation, total . . . . ........................................................... 31,760 11,375 19,740 645

Executive transportation ............................................................................ 13,880 7,980 5,780 120

Air ta x i......................................................................................................... 7,640 1,360 6,120 160

Aerial application........................................................................................ 1,750 35 1,570 145

1 ndustr ial/special............................. ......................................................... 1,620 310 1,300 10

Flight and ground schools......................................................................... 4,080 770 3,220 90

Government................................................................................................ 2,140 800 1,250 90

Repair stations ........................................................................................... 650 120 500 30

Percentage distribution

Grand total......................................................................................................... 100.0 42.8 56.2 1.0

Air carriers, t o t a l.............................................................................................. 100.0 49.2 50.8 —

Certificated route........................................................................................ 100.0 49.2 50.8 -

O th e rs ......................................................................................................... 100.0 49.5 50.5 -

General aviation, t o t a l..................................................................................... 100.0 35.8 62.2 2.0

Executive transportation............................................................................ 100.0 57.5 41.6 0.9

Air ta x i.......................................................................................................... 100.0 17.8 80.1 2.1

Aerial application ........................................................................................ 100.0 2.0 89.7 8.3

1 ndustrial/special........................................................................................ 100.0 19.1 80.3 0.6

Flight and ground schools......................................................................... 100.0 18.9 78.9 2.2

Government................................................................................................. 100.0 37.4 58.4 4.2

Repair stations ........................................................................................... 100.0 18.5 76.9 4.6

14

^ M a in ly instructor or helicopter.

-'F e w e r than 5.

SOURCE: Employment totals as shown In tables 3 and 9 distributed on the basis of USTES survey sample data.

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PILOTS

Table 16. All civil aviation, percentage distribution of airline transport rated and

commercial rated pilots, by industry division and sector, spring 1968

Industry division/sector All pilots

and copilots

Pilots and copilots whose

highest rating was--

Airline

transport Commercial Other

rating

Grand total......................................................................................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Air carriers, t o t a l............................................................................................. 52.1 59.9 47.0 0.8

Certificated route.................................................... „ ............................. 49.0 56.4 44.3 —

O th e rs ............................................ 3.0 3.5 2.7 -

General aviation, t o t a l.................................................................................... 47.9 40.1 53.0 99.2

Executive transportation........................................................................... 20.9 28.1 15.5 18.5

Air ta x i......................................................................................................... 11.5 4.8 16.4 24.6

Aerial application........................................................................................ 2.6 0.1 4.2 22.3

1 ndustrial/special....................................................................................... 2.4 1.1 3.5 1.5

Flight and ground schools......................................................................... 6.2 2.7 8.6 13.8

Government.................................................* ■ ........................................ 3.2 2.8 3.4 13.8

Repair stations .......................... ................................................................ 1.0 0.4 1.3 4.6

SOURCE: Based on table 15.

programs. Very few schools offered approved training 

related to glider and helicopter flying. As previously 

noted, the civilian aviation industry depends almost 

entirely on the military for its supply of helicopter pilots 

because of the high cost of such training. More importantly, very few schools have or are able to offer training 

on jets or other types of heavy, sophisticated equipment 

which are used by air carriers, in some executive flying, 

and by some air taxis. Where they do offer this type of 

training, it is usually by special tie-in arrangement with 

companies owning the necessary aircraft and the runways on which to operate them.

G overnm ent aid. The recent sharp increase in the 

number, and, in many instances, the capacity of FAAcertiflcated flight schools received its major impetus 

from the provisions of the Veterans Pension and 

Readjustment Assistance Act of 1967 (Public Law 

90-77), effective October 1, 1967. This Act approved 

financial assistance by the Veterans Administration for 

ex-servicemen who are qualified to take flight training 

leading to a commercial pilot’s license. The benefits are 

quite liberal—90 percent of established tuition and fee 

charges for a period up to 36 months.15

The 1967 GI benefit law represented a drastic change 

from the provisions of its 1966 counterpart. The 1966 

Act contained a clause specifying that flight training 

would be paid for only if it were part of an accredited 

college course leading to a degree. The 1967 Act relaxed 

the college-course provisions of the 1966 Act, but

substituted others. To qualify for benefits under PL 

90-77, a veteran must have been in the military service 

for more than 180 days, already possess a private pilot’s 

license or the equivalent number of flight hours to earn 

such a license, pass a Class II medical examination, and 

must take advanced flight training in an FAAcertificated school and only for the purpose of seriously 

preparing for a career in civil aviation with, at least, a 

commercial pilot’s license. The Act covers an 8-year 

period ending August 31,1975.

The response by veterans to the opportunity to 

undertake serious career flight training with VA reimbursement has been enormous. Many additional schools 

have applied for and been granted FAA certification to 

become eligible under the program. Moreover, since the 

1967 Act became effective, the content of the approved 

programs has been enlarged to include special courses for 

additional pilot ratings, as well as proficiency courses in 

agricultural and specialized helicopter operations for 

which no ratings are given. Under amendments to the 

regulations governing certification of pilot schools (Part 

141 of the Federal Aviation Regulations), FAA will now 

approve courses for aircraft class and type ratings, and 

for preparation for airline transport pilot certificates, 

agricultural flying, and special operations involving 

external loads on helicopters, as well as courses leading

15 In addition, the U.S. Office o f Education will lend up to

$1,000 for students taking flight training at certificated schools.

The loan program is open to all students, including those who

cannot fully meet VA criteria.

15

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
PILOTS

Table 17. All civil aviation, employed pilots whose highest rating was

commercial who also held'instrument ratings, spring 1968

In d u stry division/sector

C om m ercial rated pilots

T o ta l

num ber

In stru m en t rated

N um ber Percent

o f to ta l

Civil a viation, t o t a l .................................... 3 7 ,2 5 0 3 2 ,2 7 5 8 6 .6

A ll c a r r ie r s ...................................................... 1 7 ,5 1 0 1 7 ,4 8 5 9 9 .9

Excluding flig h t instructors .... 1 6 ,8 8 0 1 6 ,8 5 5 9 9 .9

F lig h t in s tr u c to r s ................................. 6 3 0 6 3 0 1 0 0 .0

C ertificated route c a r r ie r s ...................... 1 6 ,5 0 0 1 6 ,4 6 5 9 9 .8

E xcluding flig h t instructors .... 1 5 ,9 0 0 1 5 ,8 7 5 9 9 .8

F lig h t in s tr u c to r s ................................ 6 0 0 5 9 0 9 8 .3

General aviation, t o t a l ............................. 1 9 ,7 4 0 1 4 ,7 9 0 7 4 .9

E xecutive tra n s p o rta tio n .................. 5 ,7 8 0 4 ,7 4 5 8 2.1

A ir t a x i ...................................................... 6 .1 2 0 4 ,8 0 0 7 8 .4

- A erial a p p lic a tio n ................................ 1 ,5 7 0 5 3 5 34.1

1 n d u s tria l/s p e c ia l................................ 1 ,3 0 0 6 0 5 4 6 .5

Flig h t and ground s c h o o ls .............. 3 ,2 2 0 2 ,6 7 5 8 3.1

G o v e r n m e n t........................................... 1 ,2 5 0 1 ,0 5 5 8 4 .4

Repair sta tio n s ........................................ 5 0 0 3 7 5 7 5 .0

S O U R C E : E m p lo y m e n t totals as shown in tables 3 and 9 distributed on

th e basis o f U S TE S survey sample data.

to a certificate as a commercial pilot, flight instructor, or 

instrument-rated pilot.

By the end of February 1969, according to a VA 

survey,16 about 29,400 veterans had completed flight 

training of some kind, and 21,370 were enrolled at flight 

schools. Schools were enlarging their capacity in anticipation of further increases in enrollments of veterans.

S ch ool graduates as source o f supply. Evaluation of 

flying school graduates as additions to the professional 

pilot labor supply involves consideration of two 

aspects—numbers and qualifications. Unfortunately, 

there are no comprehensive FAA data on the number 

who graduate each year with at least a commercial 

license, or, more importantly, on the number of these 

who enter and remain in the civil aviation industry as 

professionals. While estimates based on the USTES 

spring 1968 survey of employers show that about

56,000 students were expected to be graduated from 

flight and ground schools in 1968, there is every 

indication that this figure is highly inflated to the extent 

that surveyed schools reported total enrollment rather 

than prospective graduates. Moreover, there was no 

indication of what type of pilot training these students 

had undertaken, for which licenses they were qualifying,

16 Veterans Administration, Department o f Veterans Benefits, unpublished data.

17 Not including flight and ground schools.

nor whether they expected to make a career of aviation 

or were simply taking instruction for their private use or 

pleasure.

It is quite clear that not all flight school training is to 

be construed as adding to the civil aviation industry’s 

professional pilot supply. Many students start training 

but drop out before completion. A great many others 

study only long enough to obtain a private license. Still 

others are already licensed commercial pilots merely 

seeking additional type or class ratings. For example, 

one large school reported in the USTES survey that, out 

of 600 pilots to be trained in 1968, 50 sought additional 

ratings, 540 sought check outs in various aircraft models, 

and only 10 were training for new licenses. It remains to 

be seen whether the new VA-supported school program, 

oriented as it is toward serious preparation for a civil 

aviation career, will eventually produce substantial numbers of additional qualified professional pilots.

On-the-job training. Some on-the-job training of 

pilots was going on in every sector of the civil aviation 

industry in 1968. It is estimated, on the basis of 

employer reports made in the spring of 1968, that about

25,000 pilots would complete formal company training 

programs of some kind during the year. Most of this was 

orientation, refresher, upgrading, class, or type training 

of experienced pilots. About 5,700 pilots were being 

trained by carriers and the remainder by general aviation 

firms,17 primarily those in executive transportation and 

air taxi operations, many of which provide flight 

instruction as a sideline. Some of the training of general 

aviation pilots on the larger and more sophisticated 

aircraft which were coming into increasing use, especially in corporate or executive flying, was being 

provided by contract with airlines. Some aircraft manufacturers were also providing training of employed pilots 

on new generations of aircraft as they were put to use.

Conclusions

The potential supply of qualified professional pilots 

appears to be quite adequate for the overall needs of the 

civil aviation industry, at least for the short-run period 

under review. No shortage existed or was contemplated 

in employer reports.

School facilities are numerous and widespread. 

Unusually good VA benefits are available to veterans 

who qualify and are willing to undertake schooling 

leading to a professional pilot’s career, and thousands 

have taken advantage of the opportunity. Companies are 

providing on-the-job training to meet their own particu16

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PILOTS

Table 18. Civil air carriers, number and percentage distribution of employed pilots by

highest rating held, by industry division, spring 1968

Industry division

All pilots

and copilots

Pilots and copilots,

excluding flight instructor-- Flight

instructors

Total Who were also

flight engineers

Number employed

All carriers, total.............................................................................................. 34,500 33,255 9,940 1,245

Airline transport........................................................................................ 16,990 16,375 4,895 615

Commercial. .............................................................................................. 17,510 16,880 5,045 630

Instrument ra te d .................................................................................. 17,485 16,855 n.a. 630

Certificated route carriers, to tal.................................................................... 32,500 31,330 9,815 1,170

Airline transport........................................................................................ 16,000 15,430 4,835 570

Commercial.............................................................................................. 16,500 15,900 4,980 600

Instrument ra te d .................................................................................. 16,465 15,875 n.a. 590

Percentage distribution

All carriers, total ........................................................................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Airline transport........................................................................................ 49.2 49.2 49.2 49.4

Commercial.............................................................................................. 50.8 50.8 50.8 50.6

Instrument ra te d .................................................................................. 50.7 50.7 n.a. 50.6

Certificated route carriers, to tal.................................................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Airline transport........................................................................................ 49.2 49.2 49.3 48.7

Commercial . ........................................................................................... 50.8 50.8 50.7 51.3

Instrument ra te d .................................................................................. 50.7 50.7 n.a. 50.4

SOURCE: Employment totals as shown In table 3 distributed on the basis of USTES survey sample data.

lar standards and requirements, and there is no lack of 

recruits from among either releasees from the military 

services or from the civilian labor force.

Although general aviation companies were reportedly 

suffering from turnover resulting from the competition 

of the airlines for the cream of the trained pilot supply, 

this situation promised to ease as airline growth requirements tapered off to a plateau through 1970. General 

aviation’s ability to hire and retain pilots will depend on

the terms of employment being offered. Airlines have 

proven that they can attract the kind of pilot they 

desire. An airline pilot career is a desirable one, with 

provision for advancement on a seniority basis, and from 

the smaller, slower aircraft to the largest and fastest, 

with concomitant pay increases and other benefits. 

General aviation companies will have to take these 

factors into account in seeking to solve their turnover 

problems.

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Chapter III. Mechanics

Employment trends

A total of 100,500 aircraft mechanics18 were employed in civil aviation19 in the spring of 1967. By the 

spring of 1968, about 5,300 or 5.3 percent more had 

been added to payrolls and estimates based on employer 

anticipations at that time indicated a prospective even 

sharper employment rise of 7,600, or 7.2 percent, by 

spring 1969 (tables 23 and 24). The 1969-70 increase, 

however, was expected to drop to 4,400, or 3.9 percent. 

If reported hiring schedules materialize as planned, 

spring 1970 mechanic employment will be an estimated 

17,300, or 17.2 percent above spring 1967, and peak 

1970 mechanic employment will be approximately

20,000, or 18 percent above the 1967 peak. This would 

represent an average 3-year requirement of roughly

6,700 a year for expansion purposes alone, not including 

the need for replacement of workers who leave the 

industry for one reason or another.

As in the case of pilots, the major part of the demand 

for additional mechanics is attributable to the anticipated growth requirements of general aviation companies. Aircraft mechanic employment in general aviation totaled 51,500 in spring 1967. By spring 1968 this 

total had risen by 3,300, or 6.4 percent, to 54,800. 

Employers expected it to rise 5,600, or about 10 percent 

more, to 60,400 by the spring of 1969. Although 

between 1969 and 1970 the demand for general aviation 

aircraft mechanics was expected to be less than half that 

of the previous year, dropping to 2,400 or 4.0 percent, 

spring 1970 employment was expected to total 62,800, 

about 11,300 or 22 percent above spring 1967, according to estimates based on employers’ reports to the 

USTES. The peak 1967 to peak 1970 growth requirements estimate was even higher—13,400 or 23 percent 

over the 3-year period. On the basis of these estimates, 

the average annual 1967-70 demand for aircraft 

mechanics by the general aviation industry for expansion 

purposes alone appears to be in the neighborhood of

4,500 a year.

Air carrier demand was expected to be less than half 

of this. Carriers employed 49,000 mechanics in spring 

1967, had added 2,000 (or 4 percent) by spring 1968, 

and expected to continue to add about 2,000 (or 

roughly 4 percent) a year through 1970, for a total 

expansion of 6,000, or about 12 percent over the 3-year 

period. At peak 1970, air carrier mechanic employment 

was expected to total approximately 60,000, and to be 

only 6,500 or 12.2 percent above peak 1967.

Route airlines, both scheduled and nonscheduled, 

accounted for 96 percent of all air carrier mechanic 

employment and for virtually all of the estimated 

prospective employment increases. Other types of 

carriers (supplemental and commercial operator) expected to add only about 200 mechanics between peak 

1967 and peak 1970.

While strictly comparable historical data are not 

available, closely related figures, including maintenance 

workers as well as mechanics, which are compiled each 

year by the Federal Aviation Administration,20 indicate 

that the prospective 2000-a-year growth requirement for 

aircraft mechanics by certificated route airlines in 1969 

and 1970 would represent a continued leveling off in the 

rapid employment expansion which had been going on 

since 1964. The 1963-64 increase in the employment of 

mechanics and maintenance workers was 4,900. Comparable year-to-year changes for the years through 1968 

were approximately as follows: 1964-65, 2,300;

1965-66, 3,660; 1966-67, 4,700; 1967-68, 2,000.

If all plans for the expansion of mechanic employment through 1970 are realized, the general aviation 

division will employ, at that time, an even larger 

proportion of the total civilian aircraft mechanic force21 

than it did in 1967. In spring 1967, general aviation 

mechanics accounted for 51.2 percent of a total of

100,500 employed aircraft mechanics. Attainment of 

the spring 1970 employment levels, estimated on the 

basis of the anticipations reported in the USTES survey 

sample, by all civil aviation employers would raise 

general aviation’s share to 53.3 percent. General aviation 

firms would have 7,800 more mechanics on their 

payrolls than did air carriers; the difference was 2,500 in 

1967.

Air carrier mechanics, by occupation. The U.S. 

Training and Employment Service survey of the air 

carrier industry yielded a breakdown on the basis of 

which it was possible to estimate both current and

18 Only aircraft mechanics are included in this survey.

Maintenance workers, such as carpenters and electricians, are

excluded. Each o f the mechanic occupations covered is described

in Appendix B.

19 Air carriers and general aviation, excluding civilian employees o f the Department o f Defense, who are considered in

Section IV.

20 FAA, Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, and Air Transport

Association o f America, A ir Transport Facts and Figures.

21 Excluding the Department o f Defense.

18

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PILOTS

Table 19. A ll civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed

pilots aged 50 years and over, spring 1968

1 ndustry division/sector

Pilots

Total Aged 50 years

and over

Aged 50 years

and over as

percentage

of total

Number employed

Grand total.............................................. 66,260 7,265 11.0

Air carriers, t o t a l .................................. 34,500 3,255 9.4

Certificated ro u te ............................ 32,500 3,065 9.4

O th e rs .............................................. 2,000 190 9.5

General aviation, t o t a l ......................... 31,760 4,010 12.6

Executive transportation............... 13,880 1,830 13.2

Air ta x i.............................................. 7,640 900 11.8

Aerial application............................ 1,750 230 13.1

Industrial/special............................ 1,620 120 7.4

Flight and ground schools............ 4,080 445 10.9

Government..................................... 2,140 400 18.7

Repair stations ............................... 650 85 13.1

Percentage distribution

Grand total.............................................. 100.0 100.0

Air carriers, t o t a l .................................. 52.1 44.8

Certificated ro u te ............................ 49.0 42.2

O th e rs .............................................. 3.0 2.6

General aviation, t o t a l ......................... 47.9 55.2

Executive transportation............... 20.9 25.2

Air ta x i.............................................. 11.5 12.4

Aerial application............................ 2.6 3.2

Industrial/special............................ 2.4 1.7

Flight and ground schools............ 6.2 6.1

Government..................................... 3.2 5.5

Repair stations ............................... 1.0 1.2

SO URCE: Employment totals as shown in tables 3 and 9 distributed on the basis of

USTES survey sample data.

prospective employment of mechanics in specific occupations; i.e., certificated aircraft and engine mechanic,22 

certificated airplane electrician, electronic mechanic, and 

“other” types of mechanic, which includes certificated 

radio, instrument, propeller, and specialized services 

mechanic. Each of these occupations, or occupational 

categories, is described in Appendix B. A similar 

breakdown by specific mechanic occupation was not 

obtained for the general aviation industry.

About half of all mechanics employed by civil air 

carriers in the spring of 1968 were aircraft and engine 

mechanics certificated by the FAA, according to estimates based on employer reports, and about two-fifths 

were in the “other” category (table 25). Airplane 

electricians and electronic mechanics each constituted 

5-6 percent of the total.

Air carriers employed about 25,300 certificated 

aircraft and engine mechanics (also known as licensed 

airframe and powerplant mechanics) in the spring of 

1968, both on the line and in overhaul and maintenance 

bases. Spring 1968 employment was about 1,500 above 

spring 1967, but carriers expected to add only about

22 The title “aircraft and engine” mechanic and “airframe

and powerplant (A&P)” mechanic are interchangeable.

900 in the following 2 years. The overall 3-year 

estimated demand for licensed airframe and powerplant 

(A&P) mechanics, measuring from spring 1967 to spring 

1970, totaled somewhat more than 2,400, of which 

more than half had apparently already been met by 

spring 1968.

The estimated 3-year growth requirement for the 

miscellaneous group of “other” mechanics, which 

embraces a variety of very specialized and highly skilled 

workers, was somewhat higher, totaling approximately 

2,800. About 20,000 of these specialized mechanics 

worked for air carriers in spring 1968, only 220 more 

than in spring 1967. But the demand was increasing 

sharply. Employers hoped to hire an additional 2,600 by 

spring 1970, and to have nearly 3,600 more on their 

payrolls at peak 1970 than they had at peak 1967.

Roughly 2,800 airplane electricians and 2,800 electronic mechanics were in the employ of civil air carriers 

in the spring of 1968. Estimates based on reported 

employer anticipations indicated a need for an additional 250 electricians and 270 electronic mechanics in 

the ensuing 2 years. By peak 1970, employment in each 

of these occupations was estimated to total around 

3,350, requiring the net addition of about 400 of each

PILOTS

Table 20. A ll civil aviation, total and average annual hours flow n by

pilots, year ending April/M ay 1968

Industry division/sector

A ll pilots

and copilots

Pilots and

copilots excluding

flig h t instructors

F lig h t

Instructors

T o ta l hours flo w n (thousands)

G rand t o t a l.................................... 3 2,3 5 5 .1

Civil air carriers, to ta l . . . . A 17,4 15 .1 1 6 ,9 7 7 .0 4 38 .1

C e rtific ate d r o u t e .............. 1 6 ,3 9 0 .4 1 5 ,9 9 6 .9 3 9 3 .5

O th e r ........................................ 1 ,0 2 4 .7 980 .1 4 4 .6

General aviation, to tal .... 1 4 ,9 4 0 .0

E xecutive transportation . 5 ,2 4 1 .8

A ir t a x i .................................... 5 ,2 8 0 .9

A erial a p p lic a tio n .............. 7 9 1 .2

I n d u s tria l/s p e c ia l............... 259.1

F light and ground schools 2 ,6 1 2 .6

G o v e r n m e n t......................... 4 3 0 .8

Repair stations .................. 3 2 3 .6

Average annual hours flo w n per p ilo t

G rand t o t a l.................................... 5 1 2

C ivil air carriers, t o t a l .............. 5 1 5 521 3 6 0

C ertificated r o u t e ............... 5 1 5 5 2 2 3 4 4

O t h e r ........................................ 5 1 2 5 0 8 6 1 5

General aviation, to ta l .... 509

E xecutive transportation . 4 0 7

A ir t a x i .................................... 7 6 3

A erial a p p lic a tio n .............. 4 8 7

In d u s tria l/s p e c ia l............... 166

F light and ground schools 708

G o v e r n m e n t......................... 2 0 8

Repair stations .................. 5 1 9

S O U R C E : U S TE S survey sample data fo r to tal hours flo w n by pilots inflated to

national totals by same fa c to r as used to inflate 1 9 6 7 survey e m p lo ym en t data. Average

annual hours flo w n per p ilo t com puted by dividing to tal hours flo w n by average o f em ­

p lo ym en t in spring o f 196 7 and spring o f 1968.

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type of mechanic above peak 1967. Air carrier needs for 

licensed airplane electricians and electronic mechanics 

were relatively small in number, but reportedly crucial 

to operations.

General aviation mechanics, by industry sector.

While about three-fourths of the nearly 55,000 general 

aviation aircraft mechanics were in repair stations in the 

spring of 1968, some were employed in each of the 

other sectors, according to estimates based on employers’ reports to the USTES survey (table 26). About

6,000, or 11 percent of the total, were engaged in 

maintaining and repairing aircraft used in executive 

transportation; close to 2,600, or nearly 5 percent of the 

total, were employed by air taxi operations; and more 

than 3,000, or close to 6 percent, were at schools, both 

teaching and maintaining equipment. State and local 

governments and Federal Government nonmilitary agencies employed about 1,000. Approximately 900 were 

employed by firms engaged in industrial/special activities, and 700 were in the aerial/application sector.

Not all of these mechanics were full-time or certificated or licensed, but most were all-around mechanics. 

The general aviation industry is characterized by small 

establishments, frequently with no more than one or 

two aircraft to maintain. If a mechanic is employed, he 

must be able to do all the work. In many one-man 

operations, particularly in the aerial/application and 

industrial/special sectors of the industry, the pilot, who 

is also frequently the owner-operator, is a qualified 

airframe and engine mechanic as well, and performs the 

maintenance function on a when-needed basis. Operators 

who do not employ their own mechanics, or whose 

repair needs are beyond the abilities of their staffs, have 

their work done at repair stations or at the overhaul and 

maintenance bases of air carriers.

Repair stations employed about 39,000 mechanics 

and repairmen in 1967, and estimates based on the 

USTES sample of firms indicate a peak 1967 to peak 

1970 need for about 8,300 or 19 percent more (table 

27). An expansion of more than 1,800, or 31 percent, 

was planned by companies providing executive transportation. The sharpest relative increase was contemplated 

by schools and by air taxis. Both mechanic schools and 

air taxi operations hoped to have roughly 45 percent 

more mechanics on their payrolls at peak 1970 than 

they had at peak 1967. Each of the other general 

aviation sectors also planned to expand its mechanic 

work force well above previous levels.

PILOTS

Table 21. Num ber o f FA A -certificated flight and ground schools

fo r pilots, by type of school, 1965-68

T y p e o f school

N u m b e r o f c e rtific a ted schools fo r pilots

D ec. 3 1 , 1 9 6 5 D ec. 3 1 ,1 9 6 6 Jan. 1, 1 9 6 8

C o m b in ed flig h t and ground . 4 0 2 5 0 5 8 1 3

F lig h t o n l y ..................................... 7 3 4 7 7 3 7 8 0

G ro u n d o n l y ................................. 4 6 7 4 127

T o t a l ......................................... 1 ,1 8 2 1 ,3 5 2 1 ,7 2 0

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration,

S tatistica l H andbook o f A v ia tio n , 1966 and 1967 editions, for 1965 and 1966 data.

January 1, 1968 data compiled from F A A :A C No. 140-2 D.

Mechanics age 50 years and over

Age is less of an employment barrier for mechanics 

than for pilots. There are no FAA retirement age 

regulations for mechanics employed by air carriers, as 

there are for pilots or in general aviation firms, and a 

good number are in the upper age brackets.

Estimates based on the USTES survey indicate that 

about 15 percent of the 105,800 mechanics employed in 

civil aviation in spring 1968, excluding civilians employed by the Department of Defense, were 50 years of 

age and over (table 28). Older mechanic^ accounted for 

12 percent of the total number employed by air carriers 

and for 17 percent of all mechanics employed in general 

aviation, reflecting again the preference of carriers for 

younger workers.

Although mechanic employment was divided fairly 

evenly between the carriers and general aviation in 1968, 

the carriers employed slightly less than 40 percent of the

15.800 older mechanics; about 60 percent were employed in general aviation, with 47 percent of the

15.800 at repair stations.

Mechanic supply

The major sources of supply for mechanics in recent 

years have been, and continue to be, graduates of public 

and private vocational institutions and veterans who 

have had some aircraft mechanic training and experience 

in the armed forces. Each of these sources, as well as the 

extent of on-the-job training being provided by employers, is evaluated below, within the framework of 

available information.

Aircraft Mechanic Schools. As of mid-January 1969, 

a total of 106 aviation mechanic schools had been 

certificated by the FAA. Altogether these schools 

offered: 86 programs in powerplant mechanic skills, 82 

programs in airframe mechanic skills, and 75 programs in

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PILOTS

Table 22. FAA-certificated pilot flight and ground schools, by state and certificated program (rating)

January 1,1968

Regionl/ and State

Number of certificated programs (ratings)^/ Total number

B A P C PG CG PH CH F FH I Schools Ratings

Total, U.S., Territories,

and Europe ............... 869 733 1,518 1,346 17 8 93 69 1,257 7 1,108 1,720 7,025

North East:

New England............... 39 17 74 60 2 2 55 49 82 298

Maine....................... 7 1 10 8 8 7 10 41

New Hampshire . . . 5 7 5 3 5 8 25

Vermont................. 3 8 5 1 6 3 10 26

Massachusetts . . . . 16 9 29 23 1 1 21 19 33 119

Rhode Island . . . . 6 6 1 6 3 7 22

Connecticut............ 8 7 14 13 11 12 14 65

Middle Atlantic . . . . 97 68 148 131 3 12 5 111 1 105 177 681

New Y o r k ............... 49 32 60 52 3 5 3 43 42 80 289

New Jersey............... 14 13 27 27 3 21 20 31 125

Pennsylvania............ 34 23 61 52 4 2 47 1 43 66 267

North Central:

East North Central . . 130 109 231 207 3 1 11 6 196 1 174 256 1,069

O h io ....................... 23 17 46 41 1 1 1 39 39 48 208

Indiana.................... 20 14 30 25 1 3 2 24 18 38 137

Illino is.................... 41 40 65 58 1 1 5 1 53 50 74 315

Michigan................. 40 32 59 56 2 2 55 1 49 64 296

Wisconsin............... 6 6 31 27 25 18 32 113

West North Central . . 89 74 165 145 11 8 140 110 179 742

Minnesota............... 24 21 34 31 4 4 31 25 38 174

Io w a ....................... 7 4 22 20 1 1 20 15 24 90

Missouri................. 20 19 29 25 2 2 26 23 32 146

North Dakota . . . . 14 9 15 13 14 10 15 75

South Dakota . . . . 9 6 12 10 8 7 15 52

Nebraska.................. 6 4 21 17 2 1 16 9 23 76

Kansas.............. 9 11 32 29 2 25 21 32 129

South:

South Atlantic............ 110 110 189 170 2 2 7 6 156 138 217 890

Delaware................. 2 1 3 3 3 4 15

Maryland . .*............ 6 4 13 13 9 10 15 55

Dist. of Col............... 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 9

Virginia.................... 7 7 20 18 16 13 21 81

West Virginia .... 2 1 8 7 6 3 8 27

North Carolina . . . 10 13 25 22 22 22 26 114

South Carolina 13 10 20 15 1 1 2 2 15 10 25 89

Georgia.................... 26 21 37 30 27 26 40 167

Florida.................... 42 52 61 60 1 1 5 4 57 50 76 333

£2 See footnotes at end of table.

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PILOTS

Table 22. FAA-certificated pilot flight and ground schools, by state and certificated program (rating)

January 1,1968—Continued

Region ^ / and State

Number of certificated programs (ratings)2/ Total number

B A P C PG CG PH CH F FH I Schools Ratings

East South Central . . . 53 42 88 78 2 2 77 1 66 92 409

Kentucky .................. 14 12 16 15 1 1 15 15 19 89

Tennessee.................. 17 9 28 25 1 1 24 1 24 29 130

Alabama.................... 12 12 20 17 17 13 20 91

Mississippi.................. 10 9 24 21 21 14 24 99

West South Central . . . 141 126 214 181 3 3 13 11 168 1 156 232 101

Arkansas.................... 7 6 18 15 13 11 19 70

Louisiana .................. 14 11 28 23 4 2 23 21 29 126

Oklahoma.................. 25 18 36 28 1 1 1 24 25 42 159

Texas.......................... 95 91 132 115 2 2 8 9 108 1 99 142 662

West:

Mountain....................... 43 41 124 114 2 2 13 13 104 1 86 134 543

Montana.................... 15 14 27 24 2 2 26 16 28 126

Idaho .......................... 13 11 1 1 12 9 13 47

Wyoming.................... 1 4 3 2 1 4 11

Colorado.................... 11 6 24 25 1 1 1 1 23 21 26 114

New Mexico............... 6 8 14 14 2 2 12 10 15 68

Arizona....................... 7 5 20 20 3 3 14 1 15 25 88

U ta h .......................... 4 3 13 9 1 1 2 2 8 8 14 51

Nevada....................... 4 9 8 2 2 7 6 9 38

P acific.......................... 160 139 280 256 2 22 18 247 2 222 344 1,348

Washington............... 22 19 50 47 1 3 3 47 1 38 58 231

Oregon....................... 7 7 25 23 2 2 24 18 31 108

California.................. 116 99 187 170 1 16 12 164 153 235 918

Alaska....................... 11 10 11 11 1 1 9 1 10 13 65

H aw aii....................... 4 4 7 5 3 3 7 26

Territories:

Puerto R ic o .................. 5 5 3 2 2 1 5 18

Guam............................. 1 1 1 1 1 4

Europe:

Antw erp....................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6

^/Regional distribution has been converted fro'm FAA to Labor Department pattern.

2/K ey to ratings:

B — Basic Ground School; A — Advanced Ground School; P — Primary Flying School - Airplane; C — Commercial Flying School - Airplanes; PG — Primary Flying School - Glider;

CG — Commercial Flying School - Glider; PH — Primary Flying School - Helicopter; CH — Commercial Flying School - Helicopter; F — Flight Instructor School; CH — Commercial

Flying School - Helicopter; F — Flight Instructor School; FH — Flight Instructor School - Helicopter; I — Instrument Flying School.

SOURCE: Derived from U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, List of Certificated Pilot Flight and Ground Schools, January 1, 1968, AC 140-

2D, pp. 1-46.

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MECHANICS

Table 23. A ll civil aviation, employment trends, all mechanics, F

by industry division, 1967-70

Date Total

Air carriers

General

aviation Total Certificated

route

Number employed

Spring of:

1967 ............................................. 100,500 49,000 47,000 51,500

1968 ............................................. 105,800 51,000 49,000 54,800

1969 (e s t.)................................... 113,400 53,000 51,000 60,400

1970 (e s t.)................................... 117,800 55,000 53,000 62,800

Peak of :

1967 ............................................. 111,300 53,300 51,100 58,000

1968 (e s t.)................................... 117,900 55,400 53,300 62,500

1970 (e s t.)................................... 131,200 59,800 57,600 71,400

Percentage distribution

Spring of:

1967 ............................................. 100.0 48.8 46.8 51.2

1968 ............................................. 100.0 48.2 46.3 51.8

1969 (e s t.)................................... 100.0 46.7 45.0 53.3

1970 (e s t.)................................... 100.0 46.7 45.0 53.3

Peak of:

1967 ............................................. 100.0 47.9 45.9 52.1

1968 (e s t.)................................... 100.0 47.0 45.2 53.0

1970 (e s t.)................................... 100.0 45.6 43.9 54.4

^ A ir c r a ft mechanics only; does not include maintenance workers.

S O U R C E : See table 1.

combined airframe and powerplant mechanic skills 

(table 29).

Both the number of schools and the number of 

certificated programs being offered have increased 

rapidly since the middle of 1967. FAA-certificated 

aviation mechanic schools totaled 69 in 1963,23 10 were 

added in the 4# years between then and July 1, 1967, 

but 27 more were brought into the program in the 

ensuing year and a half to reach the total of 106 on 

January 15, 1969 24 During the same 18-month period, 

the total number of FAA-approved courses given by 

these schools also increased sharply, from 192 to 243.

In table 30, all certificated aviation mechanic school 

programs offered during the period August 1966 to 

January 1969 have been grouped according to the 

regions and labor areas in which they were located. 

From this it may be seen that, in January 1969, more 

than three-fifths of all approved programs were being 

offered in the North Central and Western States. 

Nine States25 and the District of Columbia had no 

approved programs at all. Indeed, location of the 

certificated schools appears to bear only a minor 

relationship to probable concentrations of demand for

23 FAA, “Project Long Look,” op. cit., p. 69.

2 4 There are, in addition, an unknown but undoubtedly large

number o f noncertificated schools that have, for one reason or

another, not sought or been granted certification.

25 Delaware, Kentucky, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode

Island, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia.

26 FAA, “Project Long Look,” op. cit., p. 69.

graduates. Thus, there are only three schools in the New 

York metropolitan area, of which only one is a major 

supplier; only three schools in the Chicago area, of 

which none is a major supplier; and no school at all in 

Nashville, Tenn., a medium-sized hub. On the other 

hand, aviation mechanics graduated from the major 

supplier in Pittsburgh, Pa., have to leave the area to find 

jobs; there is always a local surplus.

Comprehensive data on total enrollment and sizes of 

the annual graduating classes of certificated aviation 

mechanic schools are not readily available, since FAA 

does not require the schools to maintain or report such 

records. However, information gathered as a by-product 

of the two formal FAA school inspections which are 

made each year gives some clues. On this basis, as well as 

on the basis of data reported in the USTES 1968 survey, 

it is estimated that between 12,000and 13,500 students 

were enrolled in FAA certificated aviation mechanic 

schools in 1968 (compared with 8,000 in 1963),26 and 

that the total number of prospective graduates in 1968 

was in the neighborhood of 4,000 to 5,000. The number 

of graduates per school per year varies widely, ranging 

between 2 to 5 and 500 to 600. Only seven schools are 

“major suppliers” of aviation mechanics. In addition to 

those mentioned above in the New York and Pittsburgh 

areas, major suppliers are located in Teterboro, New 

Jersey; Daytona Beach, Florida; Tulsa, Oklahoma; 

Lexington, Massachusetts; and Inglewood, California.

The great majority of aviation mechanic schools are 

public institutions at vocational high school and techMECHANICS

Table 24. A ll civil aviation, increases in employment over specified periods,

by industry division, 1967-70

Date Total

Air carriers

General

aviation Total Certificated

route

Employment increases

Spring of:

1967-68 ...................................... 5,300 2,000 2,000 3,300

1968-69 (e s t.)............................. 7,600 2,000 2,000 5,600

1969-70 (e s t.)............................. 4,400 2,000 2,000 2,400

1967-70 (e s t.)............................. 17,300 6,000 6,000 11,300

Peak of:

1967-68 (e s t.)............................. 6,600 2,100 2,200 4,500

1968-70 (e s t.)............................. 13,300 4,400 4,300 8,900

1967-70 (e s t.)............................. 19,900 6,500 6,500 13,400

Percentage increases

Spring of:

1967-68 ...................................... 5.3 4.1 4.3 6.4

1968-69 (e s t.)............................. 7.2 3.9 4.1 10.2

1969-70 (e s t.)............................. 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.0

1967-70 (e s t.)............................. 17.2 12.2 12.8 21.9

Peak of:

1967-68 (e s t.)............................. 5.9 3.9 4.3 7.8

1968-70 (e s t.)............................. 11.3 7.9 8.1 14.2

1967-70 (e s t.)............................. 17.9 12.2 12.7 23.1

S O U R C E: Based on table 23.

23

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nical trade school levels; only 16 are private schools, and 

only 14 are part of public or private universities or 

colleges, not including junior colleges. The University of 

Illinois, San Jose, Purdue, Oklahoma State, Idaho State, 

Utah State, Southern Illinois, and Western Michigan are 

examples of colleges and universities which offer 

approved courses for aviation mechanic certification.

Government aid. A major impetus to the recent large 

increase in the number of aviation mechanic schools 

seeking FAA certification is the Federal aid offered to 

such schools through the U.S. Office of Education under

the Smith-Hughes Act and under Title 3 of the GeorgeBarden Act. Under these Acts, certificated schools are 

receiving both financial aid and surplus equipment for 

use in training aviation mechanics. Federally guaranteed 

loans for students are also available under the auspices of 

the U.S. Office of Education, as they are for pilots.

Unlike flight school attendance, attendance at an 

approved mechanic school of any type has always 

qualified a veteran for benefits under the “G.I. Bill of 

Rights.” Aviation mechanics, however, are blanketed in 

with all other types of mechanics under the Veterans 

Educational Assistance Program and receive no special

M ECHANICS

Table 25. Civil air carriers, employment trends, by type of m echanic,!/ 1967-70

Date Total

Type of mechanic

Aircraft

and engine

mechanics

Airplane

electricians

Electronic

mechanics

Other

mechanics

Number employed

Spring of:

1967 ......................................................................... 49,000 23,770 2,720 2,700 19,810

1968 ......................................................................... 51,000 25,300 2,860 2,810 20,030

1969 (est.)................................................................ 53,000 25,880 2,900 3,000 21,220

1970 (est.)................................................................ 55,000 26,210 3,110 3,080 22,600

Peak of:

1967 ......................................................................... 53,300 26,390 2,960 2,950 21,000

1968 (est.)................................................................ 55,400 27,540 3,060 3,040 21,760

1970 (est.)................................................................ 59,800 28,500 3,380 3,350 24,570

Increases in number employed

Spring of:

1967-68 ................................................................... 2,000 1,530 140 110 220

1968-69 (est.)........................................................... 2,000 580 40 190 1,190

1969-70 4 e s t.)........................................................... 2,000 330 210 80 1,380

1967-70 (est.)........................................................... 6,000 2,440 390 380 2,790

Peak of:

1967-68 (es t.)........................................................... 2,100 1,150 100 90 760

1968-70 (es t.)........................................................... 4,400 960 320 310 2,810

1967-70 (es t.)........................................................... 6,500 2,110 420 400 3,570

Percentage distribution

Spring of:

1967 ......................................................................... 100.0 48.5 5.6 5.5 40.2

1968 ......................................................................... 100.0 49.6 5.6 5.5 39.3

1969 (est.)................................................................ 100.0 48.8 5.5 5.7 40.0

1970 (est.)................................................................ 100.0 47.7 5.7 5.6 41.1

Peak of:

1967 ............................................................................ 100.0 49.5 5.6 5.5 39.4

1968 (est.)................................................................... 100.0 49.7 5.5 5.5 39.3

1970 (est.)................................................................... 100.0 47.7 5.7 5.6 41.1

24

!/A irc ra ft mechanics only; does not include maintenance workers.

SOURCE: Employment totals as shown in table 23 distributed on the basis of USTES survey sample data.

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benefits such as pilots do. Allowances are nominal and 

are not related to school tuition and fee charges, as are 

those for pilots. The cost of a mechanic trainee’s 

education may be nothing or much more than his 

allowance, but this cost is not taken into account in 

determining the amount of money he receives, nor are 

any incentives offered to induce him to undertake 

aviation mechanic schooling rather than any other kind. 

A veteran attending mechanic school full time receives 

$130 a month if he has no dependents, $165 a month if 

he has one dependent, $175 if he has two dependents, 

and $10 a month more for each dependent above two. 

Allowances for part-time school attendance are proportionately less.

The latest available Veterans Administration survey 

indicates that cumulatively through June 30, 1968, a 

total of only 7,327 men had undergone training as 

aircraft mechanics with VA benefits2 7 (compared with

29,400 pilots).' Of these, 7,310 had received their 

training in school and 17 on the job. Only about 2,300 

of the school trainees had attended a vocational school 

or technical post-high school; the rest, about 5,000, had 

attended vocational or technical schools which did not 

require a previous high school education. No information is available as to how many of these 7,300 

veteran-trainees had actually sought or found jobs as 

aircraft mechanics in the civil aviation industry.

School graduates as source o f supply. It is said of 

public aviation mechanic schools that many enroll, few 

graduate. Moreover, not all graduates, by any means, 

find their way into jobs in the aviation industry. A 

graduate of a public school of high school level may have 

become adept at mechanical skills, but will still require 3 

to 4 years of arduous on-the-job training under close 

supervision before he is ready to undergo FAA examination and fill a licensed aircraft mechanic’s position. 

Many never reach this stage. Upon graduation, they tend 

to seek mechanic jobs in aircraft manufacturing or 

outside of the aviation industry where licensing is not 

required. Perhaps as many as half of them are thus lost 

to the civil aviation industry.

The quality of education offered in this field in 

public institutions, many of which are operating at or 

near capacity, is generally not of the best nor the most 

up-to-date. A very large amount of space is needed and

27 Veterans Administration, Department o f Veterans Benefits, unpublished data.

M ECHANICS!'

Table 26. General aviation, employment trends and percentage distribution, by industry sector, 1967-70

Sector

Spring o f- Peak o f1967 1968 1969

(est.)

1970

(est.) 1967 1968(est.)

1970

(est.)

Number employed!/

General aviation, t o t a l....................... 51,500 54,800 60,400 62,800 58,000 62,500 71,400

Executive transportation............... 5,020 6,090 6,430 6,870 5,960 6,560 7,810

Air ta x i............................................ 2,290 2,590 3,170 3,530 2,700 3,140 4,000

Aerial application.......................... 680 710 810 980 790 810 1,110

I ndustrial/special.......................... 900 910 960 990 960 960 1,130

Mechanic schools.......................... 2,490 3,120 3,680 3,880 3,050 3,550 4,400

Government................................... 1,100 1,120 1,150 1,150 1,120 1,160 1,200

Repair stations ............................. 39,020 40,260 44,200 45,400 43,420 46,320 51,750

Percentage distribution

General aviation, t o t a l............\ . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Executive transportation............... 9.8 11.1 10.6 10.9 10.3 10.5 10.9

Air ta x i............................................ 4.4 4.7 5.2 5.6 4.6 5.0 5.6

Aerial application.......................... 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.6

I ndustrial/special.......................... 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6

Mechanic schools.......................... 4.8 5.7 6.1 6.2 5.3 5.7 6.2

Government................................... 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7

Repair stations ............................. 75.8 73.5 73.2 72.3 74.9 74.1 72.5

J/A ircraft mechanics only; does not include maintenance workers.

SOURCE: See table 1.

25

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MECHANICS

Table 27. General aviation, changes in employment, by industry sector, 1967-70

Sector

Spring o f- Peak o f1967-68 1968-69

(est.)

1969-70

(est.)

1967-70

(est.)

1967-68

(est.)

1968-70

(est.)

1967-70

(est.)

Increases in number employed

General aviation, t o t a l........................ 3,300 5,600 2,400 11,300 4,500 8,900 13,400

Executive transportation............... 1,070 340 440 1,850 600 1,250 1,850

Air ta x i............................................ 300 580 360 1,240 440 860 1,300

Aerial application.......................... 30 100 170 300 20 300 320

1 ndustrial/special.......................... 10 50 30 90 0 170 170

Mechanic schools.......................... 630 560 200 1,390 500 850 1,350

Government................................... 20 30 0 50 40 40 80

Repair stations ............................. 1,240 3,940 1,200 6,380 2,900 5,430 8,330

Percentage increases

General aviation, t o t a l........................ 6.4 10.2 4.0 34.2 7.8 14.2 23.1

Executive transportation............... 21.3 5.6 28.1 36.9 10.1 19.1 31.0

Air ta x i............................................ 13.1 22.4 38.4 54.1 16.3 27.4 48.1

Aerial application.......................... 4.4 14.1 21.0 44.1 2.5 37.0 40.5

1 ndustrial/special.......................... 1.1 5.5 3.1 10.0 0 17.7 17.7

Mechanic schools.......................... 25.3 17.9 5.4 55.8 16.4 23.9 44.3

Government................................... 1.8 2.7 0 4.5 3.6 3.4 7.1

Repair stations ............................. 3.2 9.8 2.7 16.4 6.6 11.7 19.2

SOURCE: Based on table 26.

often not available. At Aviation High School in Long 

Island City, New York, the largest aviation mechanic 

school in the country, for example, 2,400 day students 

and 525 evening students were enrolled in the spring of 

1968, but there were only 2,000 bench spaces. The 

school was operating above capacity by using extended 

sessions, but the Board of Education planned no 

facilities expansion at that time. It is perhaps unreasonable to expect public high schools to be equipped with 

adequate supplies of materials and sophisticated tools 

and equipment, or with expensive airframes and jet 

engines for students to learn on. Only the basics can be 

taught at most public schools; the practical, real-world 

training and keeping abreast of the latest developments 

must take place where the equipment is, i.e., on the job.

Except for graduates of universities and- the better 

private schools who have been certificated or licensed 

and choose to make a career of aeronautical mechanics, 

graduates of aviation mechanic schools are generally 

hired as trainees or apprentices. They are preferred over 

completely untrained men. As trainees or apprentices, 

they are in great demand, and it appears that the number 

that may become available for such work in the civil 

aviation industry as a whole in the next couple of years 

may be insufficient to meet the need.

M ilita ry-tra in ed mechanics. Although aircraft 

mechanics trained in the military services are also an 

important source of manpower supply for civil aviation, 

employers in both the air carrier and general aviation 

divisions of the industry reported to the USTES, in the 

spring of 1968, that men who had received military 

training only were “ severely restricted for immediate 

placement in the civilian aircraft maintenance industry 

as full-functioning mechanics” because of their limited 

work experience. They tend to be specialized, either on 

one system of one type of airplane, or on some type of 

aircraft which does not exist in the civilian economy. 

Like public school graduates, they are generally hired as 

trainees or apprentices only. Reportedly, they not only 

require technical retraining, but their general job 

knowledge must be increased.

Military-service-trained aircraft mechanics, no matter 

how adequate a source of good prospects for entry 

occupations, cannot meet civil aviation’s short-range 

need for fully qualified licensed mechanics of various 

types. Some of the necessary training may be obtained 

by veterans who seek further instruction at wellequipped schools. But the bulk of it must be obtained 

on the job.

26

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MECHANICS

Table 28. A ll civil aviation, number and percentage distribution of employed

mechanics aged 50 years and over, spring 1968

Industry division/sector

M e ch an ics!/

T o ta l Aged 5 0 years

and over

Aged 5 0 and over

as percentage

o f to tal

N um ber em ployed

G rand to ta l ................................ 1 0 5 ,8 0 0 1 5,7 7 5 14.9

A ir carriers, t o t a l ..................... 5 1 ,0 0 0 6 ,2 2 5 1 2.2

C ertificated r o u t e .............. 4 9 ,0 0 0 5 ,8 6 5 1 2.0

O t h e r s .................................... 2 ,0 0 0 3 6 0 1 8.0

General aviation, total .... 5 4 ,8 0 0 9 ,5 5 0 1 7.4

E xecutive transportation . 6 ,0 9 0 9 3 0 1 5.3

A ir t a x i .................................... 2 ,5 9 0 305 11.8

A erial a p p lic a tio n .............. 7 1 0 115 16.2

1 n d u s tria l/s p e c ia l............... 9 1 0 100 1 1.0

A v iatio n s chools.................. 3 ,1 2 0 4 2 0 13.5

G o v e rn m e n t......................... 1 ,1 2 0 205 1 8.3

Repair stations .................. 4 0 ,2 6 0 7 ,4 7 0 1 8.6

Percentage d istrib ution

G rand to tal ................................ 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0

A ir carriers, t o t a l ...................... 4 8 .2 3 9 .5

C ertificated r o u t e .............. 4 6 .3 3 7 .2

O t h e r s .................................... 1.9 2 .3

General aviation, to tal .... 5 1 .8 6 0 .5

Executive transportation . 5 .8 5 .9

A ir t a x i .................................... 2 .4 1.9

A erial a p p lic a tio n .............. 0 .7 0 .7

1 n d u s tria l/s p e c ia l.............. 0 .9 0 .6

A v iatio n sch o o ls.................. 2 .9 2 .7

G o v e r n m e n t......................... 1.1 1.3

Repair stations .................. 38.1 4 7 .4

J /A ircraft mechanics on ly; does n o t include m aintenance workers.

S O U R C E : E m p lo ym en t totals as shown in tables 2 3 and 2 6 distributed on basis of

U S TE S survey sample data.

On-the-job training. As of January 1, 1969, a total 

of about 1,000 trainees were enrolled in 3- or 4-year 

registered apprenticeship programs leading to licensing as 

aircraft mechanics.28 The programs were being conducted mainly by airlines, but some general aviation 

firms, even very small ones, and some manufacturers 

were also participating. Most o f me apprentices were 

preparing for certification as A&P mechanics or airplane 

electricians, but the list of occupations for which 

on-the-job apprenticeship training under registered programs was being provided by employers includes the 

following occupations as well: aircraft assembly 

mechanic, accessories mechanic, aircraft mechanic, 

engine mechanic, helicopter mechanic, instrument 

mechanic, line service mechanic, propeller mechanic, 

radio mechanic, aircraft machinist, and sheet metal 

mechanic.

It is estimated from the spring 1968 USTES survey 

data that nearly 12,000 aviation mechanics would 

complete formal company on-the-job training programs 

of some kind during 1968. Civil air carriers accounted 

for about 3,500 of this total, and general aviation 

companies,29 mainly repair stations, for the rest.

The USTES questionnaire asked civil air carriers to 

report the number of workers “expected* to complete 

training in 1968 for promotion to each of the specified 

occupations” , i.e., certificated aircraft and engine 

mechanic, certificated airplane electrician, electronic 

mechanic, and “ other” mechanics (see appendix B). 

Estimates based on the responses indicate the following 

breakdown:

Number o f aircraft

mechanics to be

trained in 1968

All mechanics, t o t a l ............................. 3 ,5 3 0

Aircraft and engine m e ch a n ics............................. 2 ,4 5 0

Airplane electricians . ............................................ 25 0

Electronic mechanics ............................................ 16 0

Other m e ch a n ics..................................................... 6 7 0

No such occupational breakdown is available for general 

aviation where employers were simply asked to report 

the total number of mechanics expected to complete 

formal company training programs in 1968. The total 

number for general aviation is estimated, on the basis of 

these reports, at 8,300, of which 6,500 were in repair 

stations and nearly 1,000 in executive transportation. 

Some training of mechanics was going on, however, in 

each of the other sectors of the industry.

Interpretation of the figures reported to the USTES 

on the number of mechanics to be trained on the job 

must be tempered with caution. There is substantial 

evidence that they are heavily overstated to the extent 

that many employers included in their reports all 

mechanics undergoing training of any kind—orientation, 

refresher, upgrading, apprenticeship, etc.—rather than 

only those who would, upon completion of their 

training courses, be ready in 1968 for promotion to the 

position of a fully qualified and certificated mechanic of 

the type specified.

But even these highly inflated figures fall short of the 

estimated annual combined replacement and growth 

needs for fully qualified mechanics by both air carriers 

and general aviation firms in the short-term future. The 

discrepancy between on-the-job training and probable 

needs is most marked in regard to airplane electricians, 

electronic mechanics, and “other” mechanics, which 

includes radio, instrument, propeller, and such highly 

specialized mechanics as avionic technicians.30

28 U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Apprenticeship and

Training, unpublished data. The term “aircraft mechanic,” as

used here, encompasses all o f the occupations listed in the

paragraph.

29 Not including mechanic schools.

30 Avionic technicians checkv repair, and install aircraft

communication/navigation and control equipment.

27

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MECHANICS

Table 29. Number of FAA-certificated schools and approved

programs (ratings) for mechanics, by type, 1966-69

Program (rating)

Number of certificated schools for mechanics

Aug. 1, 1966 July 1,1967 July 15,1968 Jan. 15, 1969

Total schools........................................................................................ 78 79 97 106

Number of approved programs (ratings) for:

Combined airframe and powerplant

mechanic....................................................................................... 59 60 71 75

Airframe mechanic o n ly ............................................................. 66 64 77 82

Powerplant mechanic o n ly.......................................................... 68 68 80 86

Total Number of approved programs

(ratings).......................................................................................... 193 192 228 243

SOURCE: Derived from U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Advisory Circulars AC147-2B ,

AC147-2C, A C 147-2D , and AC147-2E.

Conclusions

A tightness in the overall supply of aircraft mechanics 

in relation to the estimated demand seems to be 

developing. Of the 27 labor areas surveyed by the 

USTES in the spring of 1968, half reported stringencies 

in the supply of aircraft mechanics varying from slight to 

critical. Employers complained of shortages of fully 

qualified and certificated airplane electricians, electronic 

and instrument mechanics, and radio and avionic technicians, as well as of airframe and powerplant mechanics.

Graduates of most, though not all, aviation mechanic 

schools, and mechanics released from the armed forces 

cannot meet the need; they are not experienced with 

sophisticated modern civilian aircraft and can qualify 

only as trainees or apprentices. There is insufficient 

incentive for them to enter the long road through 

training to FAA certification when alternative job 

opportunities at good pay are available. While all route 

carriers and many other civil aviation companies, as well 

as some manufacturers of aircraft, are providing on-thejob training, it is inadequate for all expected replacement and growth needs in the short-run future, 

especially in the most highly skilled and specialized 

occupations where the stringency already seems to be 

acute.

General aviation firms are at a particular disadvantage 

in hiring and retaining fully qualified mechanics of the 

types they need. Many of them complain that they 

cannot hold mechanics after they have spent a great deal 

of time and money training them because, once trained, 

they leave for better paying and more stable government 

or airline jobs. A very common practice among general 

aviation companies to meet this problem is to hire only 

certificated airframe and engine mechanics who are also 

pilots and can, therefore, justify higher and steadier pay 

by doing everything. In very small companies, the 

pilot/mechanic is frequently the employer himself.

It is clear that all demands for fully qualified and 

certificated aircraft mechanics and specialized technicians of various kinds cannot be met by recruitment in 

the open market. Expanded formal company on-the-job 

training programs, especially apprenticeship programs, 

planned sufficiently in advance of anticipated needs, 

appear to offer one practical approach to the problem. 

Study at the better equipped private schools might be 

encouraged through more generous government student 

aid grants or benefits under the Veterans Educational 

Assistance Program. If small general aviation firms are to 

compete in the labor market for a limited mechanic 

supply, they may have to offer inducements in the form 

of an adequate guaranteed annual wage or something 

similar.

28

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MECHANICS

Table 30. FAA-certificated mechanic schools, by labor area and certificated program (rating),

1966-69

Number of certificated programs (ratings)^/

Region and labor areal/ August 1,1966 July 1,1967 July 15,1968 Jan. 15,1969

A P C A P C A P C A P C

Total U.S. and Territories......................................... 66 68 59 64 68 60 77 80 71 82 86 75

North Eastern S tates.................................................. 12 13 11 11 12 10 11 12 12 12 13 12

New England........................................................... 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Boston, Mass........................................................ 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Danielson, Conn................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Middle A tlan tic..................................................... 9 10 8 8 9 7 8 9 9 9 10 10

Buffalo, N.Y......................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

New York, N.Y.................................................... 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 3 2

Utica-Rome, N.Y................................................. 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2

Newark, N.J.......................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Paterson-Clifton-Passaic, N.J.............................. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Pittsburgh, Pa....................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Philadelphia, Pa.................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Williamsport, Pa................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

North Central S tates.................................................. 14 14 14 13 13 16 19 19 20 21 20 22

East North C en tral............................................... 9 9 9 8 8 12 9 8 12 9 8 12

Columbus, Ohio ............................................... 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

Lafayette, I nd...................................................... 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1

Vincennes, Ind..................................................... 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1

Chicago, III........................................................... 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 3

St. Louis, Mo.-! II.................................................. 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1

Carbondale, III...................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Champaign-Urbana, III........................................ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Detroit, Mich........................................................ 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

South Haven, Mich.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0

Kalamazoo, Mich................................................. 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1

Milwaukee, Wis.................................................... 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Beloit, Wis............................................................. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

West North Central............................................... 5 5 5 5 5 4 10 11 8 12 12 10

Thief River Falls, Minn....................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn................................. 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

Kansas City, Kans./Mo........................................ 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 2

Salina, Kans.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1

Topeka, Kans....................................................... 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0

Wichita, Kans....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1

Des Moines, Io w a............................................... 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1

Ottumwa, Io w a .................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1

Waterloo, Io w a .................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1

Fargo-Moorhead, N.D.......................................... 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0

Sioux Falls, S.D.................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0

Watertown, S.D.................................................... 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

Omaha, Nebr.-lowa ......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1

Lincoln, Nebr....................................................... 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1

Sidney, Nebr........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

Southern States........................................................... 12 12 13 13 13 13 16 17 16 17 19 17

South Atlantic........................................................ 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8

Baltimore, Md...................................................... 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1

Winston-Salem, N.C...................................... . . 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Florence, S.C........................................................ 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

Americus, Ga. .................................................. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Atlanta, Ga........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1

Miami, Fla............................................................. 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

St. Petersburg, Fla............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

See footnotes at end of table.

29

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MECHANICS

Table 30. FAA-certificated mechanic schools, by labor area and certificated program (rating),

1966-69—Continued

Number of certificated programs (ratings)?./

Region and labor areal/ Aug. 1, 1966 July 1, 1967 July 15, 1968 Jan. 15, 1969

A P C A P C A P C A P C

South Atlantic—Cont.:

Daytona Beach, Fla............................................. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Tallahassee, Fla.................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

East South C en tral............................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 3 2

Jackson, Miss........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0

Ozark, Ala............................................................. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Hamilton, Ala....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1

West South Central............................................... 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7

Camden, Ark........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1

New Orleans, La................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Lake Charles, La.................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1

Stillwater, Okla.................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Tulsa, Okla........................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Enid, Okla............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0

Ft. Worth, Tex..................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1

Longview, Tex...................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Western States............................................................. 27 28 21 26 29 21 30 31 23 31 33 24

Mountain................................................................ 5 6 4 5 6 7 7 7 6 7 8 7

Helena, Mont........................................................ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Pocatello, Idaho.................................................. 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

Denver, Colo........................................................ 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Las Vegas, Nev..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1

Douglas, Ariz........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

Phoenix, Ariz............................................... 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0

Logan, U ta h ........................................................ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Alamagordo, N.M................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0

Roswell, N.M........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1

Cheyenne, Wyo.................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

P ac ific................................................................... 22 22 17 21 23 17 23 24 17 24 25 17

Moses Lake, Wash................................................ 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

Tacoma, Wash...................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Spokane, Wash..................................................... 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

Seattle, Wash........................................................ 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 0

Eugene, Ore.......................................................... 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove,Calif. . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

San Bernardino-Riverside-Ontario, Calif. . . . 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

San Francisco-Oak land, Calif. ....................... 3 3 1 3 3 1 4 4 0 4 4 0

Stockton, Calif..................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Los Angeles-Long Beach, Calif........................... 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Fresno, Calif......................................................... 2 r 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Hollister, Calif...................................................... 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1

San Jose, Calif...................................................... 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1

San Diego, Calif................................................... 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1

Sacramento, Calif................................................ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Fairbanks, Alaska............................................... 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1

Honolulu, Hawaii............................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Territories................................................................... 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

San Juan, Puerto R ic o ......................................... 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0

-1/Regional distribution has been converted from FA A to Labor Department pattern. Labor areas are as defined by the U.S. Department of Labor, Manpower Administration.

?/K ey to ratings: A — Airfram e mechanic; P — Powerplant mechanic; C — Combined Airfram e and Powerplant mechanic.

SOURCE: Derived from U.S. Dept, of Transportation, Federal Aviation Adm inistration, Advisory Circulars, AC 147-2B, AC 147-

2C, AC 147-2D , and AC 147-2E.

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Chapter IV. U.S. Department of Defense Pilots and Mechanics

Civilian pilots

In mid-1968 relatively few civilian pilots, 560 in all, 

were employed by the military services of the Department of Defense. Sixty percent of these were working 

for the Army and the remainder for the Air Force. The 

Navy employs no civilian pilots.

Available information on the Defense Department’s 

employment of civilian pilots for the period 1967 to 

1970 is summarized in table 31. In these years, the total 

number employed was expected to vary only slightly 

and to remain close to the 600 level. Peak-1970 

employment was estimated at 620, only 40 above peak 

1967. The size of the civilian pilot force used by the 

Army and the Air Force is relatively stable, resulting 

from the distinctive characteristics of the programs to 

which they are assigned. The Air Force employs civilian 

pilots to staff reserve stations. These pilots are a cadre 

necessary to maintain the reserve stations in a state of 

readiness. They are civil servants working a regular work 

week on maintenance and administrative tasks. When 

reservists are present in force and the station is functioning in its training capacity, these civilian pilots, who are 

themselves reserve officers, form the nucleus of the 

reserve staff.31 The Army uses civilian pilots primarily 

as flight instructors to train military pilots, but they also 

function in other areas, e.g., for aerial mapping and for 

test flying planes which have been repaired.

Many civilian pilots with the Army and Air Force have 

retired from military service. Many of them, about 60 

percent, had not acquired FAA commercial pilot certificates, and less than 10 percent had qualified for FAA 

airline transport ratings.

Civilian mechanics

Substantial numbers of civilian aircraft mechanics are 

employed by the Department of Defense. They are used 

by the military to provide continuity in repair and 

maintenance work, in addition to enlisted military 

aircraft mechanics.

31 Pilots are employed in a similar capacity by the Air and

Army National Guard.

The three military services reported that, in mid1968, they had about 38,400 civilian aircraft mechanics 

on their payrolls, or more than a fourth of all the 

144,200 civilian aircraft mechanics employed. This 

number represented an increase of 700 over 1967. 

Employment was expected to increase 1,100 more by

1969 but to drop sharply between 1969 and 1970. Peak

1970 civilian aircraft employment was estimated at 

37,300, or 1,400 below peak 1967.

The Navy and Air Force together accounted for 

nearly 98 percent of the 1968 employment. The largest 

group of aircraft mechanics, 60 percent of the total, was 

employed by the Air Force. Its plan to cut back its 

civilian aircraft mechanic employment, if carried out, 

would reduce the number by 2,500, from 23,000 at 

peak 1967 to 20,500 at peak 1970. The Navy, the 

second largest military employer of civilian aircraft 

mechanics with 38 percent of the total, and the Army, 

with about 2 percent, reported plans for increases in 

civilian aircraft mechanic employment between peak 

1967 and peak 1970 totaling 1,250.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE PILOTS AND MECHANICS

Table 31. Civilian aviation, em ploym ent trends, by service, 1967-70

D ate

A ll

services A rm y N avy A ir Force

N u m b e r o f civilian p ilots e m p lo y e d

S u m m er o f:

1 9 6 7 .......................... 5 7 0 3 3 0 0 2 4 0

1 9 6 8 .......................... 5 6 0 3 3 5 0 2 2 5

1 9 6 9 ( e s t . ) ............... 6 0 0 3 55 0 2 4 5

1 9 7 0 ( e s t . ) ............... 6 2 0 3 5 5 0 2 6 0

Peak o f:

1 9 6 7 .......................... 5 8 0 3 3 0 0 2 5 0

1 9 6 8 ( e s t . ) ............... 6 2 0 3 55 0 2 6 5

1 9 7 0 ( e s t . ) ............... 6 2 0 3 6 0 0 2 6 0

N u m b e r o f civilian a irc ra ft mechanics em ployed

S u m m er o f:

1 96 7 .......................... 3 7 ,7 0 0 7 0 0 1 4 ,0 0 0 2 3 ,0 0 0

1 9 6 8 .......................... 3 8 ,4 0 0 8 5 0 1 4 ,6 5 0 2 2 ,9 0 0

1 9 6 9 ( e s t . ) ............... 3 9 ,5 0 0 9 7 0 1 5 ,8 8 0 2 2 ,6 5 0

1 9 7 0 ( e s t . ) ............... 3 7 ,3 0 0 1 ,1 0 0 1 5 ,7 0 0 2 0 ,5 0 0

Peak o f:

1 9 6 7 .......................... 3 8 ,7 0 0 8 4 0 1 4 ,7 1 0 2 3 ,1 5 0

1 9 6 8 ( e s t . ) ............... 4 0 ,0 0 0 9 0 0 1 5 ,6 0 0 2 3 ,5 0 0

1 9 7 0 ( e s t . ) ............... 3 7 ,3 0 0 1 ,1 0 0 1 5 ,7 0 0 2 0 ,5 0 0

S O U R C E : N atio n al e m p lo y m e n t totals reported by A rm y , N avy, A ir Force in

U S T E S survey.

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Appendix A. Civil Aviation, Definitions of Industry Divisions and Sectors

1. Air carriers

The civil air carrier division of the industry consists of two sectors, each of which is 

considered separately in this study.

Certificated route carriers include all scheduled and nonscheduled U.S. domestic and 

international airlines. These account for about 94 percent of all air carrier pilot and mechanic 

employment.

Other carriers refers to supplemental air carriers which are authorized to perform passenger 

and cargo charter services supplementing the scheduled route air carriers, and commercial operators 

which operate on a private for-hire basis.

2. General aviation

The definition of general aviation, as used in this study, differs from that of the Federal 

Aviation Administration. The term “general aviation,” as defined by the FAA1 includes all 

nonmilitary or civilian flying except that performed by the interstate and intrastate air carriers 

operating large aircraft. General aviation flying, thus defined, embraces a wide range of diverse uses 

of aircraft, from the transportation of personnel and cargo by business firms in privately owned 

aircraft, to special uses such as for crop dusting, power and pipeline patrol, and aerial advertising, as 

well as private flying for pleasure. These activities have been classified by the FAA into four major 

categories: Business flying, which includes executive transportation and business transportation; 

instructional flying; commercial flying, which includes air taxi, aerial application, and industrial/ 

special flying; and personal flying.

Since this study is concerned only with professional pilots and with aviation mechanics 

employed as such, personal flying and business transportation2 (as distinguished from executive 

transportation) have been eliminated from consideration and are not included in the figures for the 

general aviation division of the civil aviation industry. Included, moreover, are local, State, and 

nonmilitary Federal Government civilian flying activities which the FAA does not include in its 

general aviation category.

The categories of general aviation which are within the scope of this study may be described 

as follows:

Executive (corporate) transportation is any use of an aircraft by a corporation, company, or 

other organization for the purposes of transporting its employees and/or property, not for 

compensation or hire, and employing professional pilots for the operation of the aircraft.

Air taxi transportation includes both scheduled and nonscheduled air taxi service, as well as 

contract service, and charter service.

Aerial application is any use of an aircraft for work purposes which concern the production of 

food, fiber, and health control, in which the aircraft is used in lieu of farm implements or ground 

vehicles for the particular task accomplished. It includes the distribution of chemicals or seeds in 

agriculture, reforestation, and insect control. It excludes fire fighting operations. There are a

1 FAA, Economics Division, General Aviation - A Study and Forecast o f the Fleet and its Use in 1975, July

1966.

2 Business transportation is defined by the FAA as any use o f an aircraft, not for compensation or hire, by

an individual for the purposes o f transportation required by a business or profession in which he is engaged. A high

proportion o f its fleet is made up o f small, single-engine aircraft which are used by individuals for transportation,

much as an automobile might be, in conducting a business or providing a service. The business pilot is not a

professional pilot, just as a man who drives a car in the course o f his business is not a chauffeur.

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multitude of specific uses for aircraft in agriculture and forestry operations, such as insect and plant 

disease control, weed and brush control, control of animal pests, application of fertilizers and trace 

elements, defoliation, seeding, restocking of fish and other wild life, cloud seeding to induce 

precipitation or fog dispersal, and the production of air turbulence (mainly by the downdraft from 

helio blades) for frost prevention, drying fruit and athletic fields, harvesting ripe fruit and nuts, 

chasing birds from crops, etc.

Industrial/special use includes specialized work allied with industrial activity, excluding 

transportation and aerial application. Examples are: pipeline and highway patrolling, aerial 

surveying, emergency and rescue operations, advertising, photography, helicopter hoist, fire fighting, 

etc.

Instructional flying in general aviation includes any use of an aircraft for the purpose of 

formal instruction with the flight instructor aboard, or with the maneuvers on the particular 

flight(s) specified by the flight instructor. It excludes military and air carrier flight instruction but 

does include all other forms of civil private pilot training.

Government, which the FAA does not include in general aviation but which is included in this 

report, covers State and local governments and Federal Government nonmilitary agencies such as 

the Coast Guard, the Federal Aviation Administration, the Departments of Agriculture, Justice, and 

Interior, the Tennessee Valley Authority, etc. Included are such activities as traffic surveillance and 

forest protection programs, but not flight instruction at public institutions which is included under 

instructional flying.

Repair stations are independent companies or firms engaged in the maintenance and repair of 

aircraft. Both certificated and noncertificated repair stations are included. Data for mechanics cover 

aircraft mechanics and aircraft repairmen.

3. U.S. Department of Defense

Included are the civilian flying and aircraft maintenance activities of the Army, Navy, and Air 

Force.

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Appendix B.

Manpower Administration

U.S. Training and Employment Service

Questionnaires and Instructions

Including Descriptions of

Occupations

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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Budget Bureau No. 44-S68002

Bureau of Employment Security QUESTIONNAIRE ON PILOTS AND AIRCRAFT MECHANICS -C IV IL AIR CARRIERS

Form is-552 (3 -6 8 ) AIR TRANSPORTATION SURVEY

1. DATE OF SURVEY 1 Month, day. year) 2. STATE CODE 3. STATE 4. LABOR AREA NO. 5. LABOR AREA NAME

6. TYPE OF ACTIVITY ( Check one )

A. CERTIFICATED ROUTE CARRIER B. OTHER ( Specify )

7. FLEET SIZE 8. FIRM NO. 9. FIRM SIC

CODE A. TOTAL ( Item* 7B-7E ) B. NO. SINGLE ENGINE C. NO. MULTI-ENGINE. PISTON D. NO. TURBO E. NO. HELICOPTER

TO:

1

C IV IL AIR CARRIERS

L J

I Fold)

1 0 .SELECTED OCCUPATIONS

( If workers are not employed in either of these occupations, enter a zero.)

ITEM LINE

NO.

| PILOTS || AIRCRAFT M ECHANICS

TOTAL

PILOTS

(Cols. B & D )

A

EXCLUDING

FUGHT INSTRUCTORS

FLIGHT

INSTRUCTORS

D

TOTAL

MECHANICS

( Cols. F -i)

E

1

AIRCRAFT

AND

ENGINE

MECHANICS

F

ELECTRICIAN

AIRPLANE

G

ELECTRONIC

MECHANIC

H

OTHER

MECHANICS

1

TOTAL

NUMBER

B

NUMBER

WHO ARE

FLIGHT

ENGINEERS

C

EMPLOYMENT

CURRENT 01

AGE 50 YEARS AND OVER 02 1 f S B * s

ONE YEAR AGO 03

PEAK EMPL. IN 1967

( Enter month in paren.)

04

< > r ' W W ' m ( ) s h e k e l N 1

REPLACEMENT NEEDS IN

1968 05

CURRENT

VACANCIES

TOTAL 10

LESS THAN 1 MONTH 11

ONE M O NTH OR MORE 12

PROJECTED

EMPLOYMENT

ONE YEAR HENCE 20 \

PEAK EMPL. IN 1968

( Enter month in aaren.)

21

( )

[''

( ) .T •" t . w * m m m m

PEAK EMPL. IN 1970 22

FIXED-WING 23 H M B S t e . r ^ ’ - ♦ 4 * r p S

HELICOPTER 24 ' V A... . •#&

TRAINING

NUMBER TO BE TRAINED BY

FIRM IN 1968 30

HIGHEST

RATING

HELD

AIRLINE TRANSPORT 40 i COMM ENTS f Use reverse if additional space is required.)

CO MM ERCIAL 41 J

INSTRUMENT 42

CERTIFIED TO

FLY

FIXED-WING ONLY 50

HELICOPTER ONLY 51

FIXED-WING AND HELIO 52

II HOURS

U FLOWN

TOTAL PILOT HOURS IN

PAST 12 MONTHS 60 V- j

NAME OF PERSON RECORDING THIS INFORMATION TITLE

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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Bureau of Employment Security

Form ES —553 ( 3-68 )

QUESTIONNAIRE ON PILOTS AND AIRCRAFT MECHANICS -GENERAL AVIATION

AIR TRANSPORTATION SURVEY

Budget Bureau No. 44-S68002

1. DATE OF SURVEY ( Month, day. year) 2. STATE CODE 3. STATE 4. LABOR AREA NO. 5« LABOR AREA NAME

6. TYPE OF ACTIVITY (Check one)

A. BUSINESS B. AERIAL APPLICA­ C. INDUSTRY D. AIR TAXI E. FLIGHT GROUND F. FEDERAL, STATE. AND G. OTHER ( Specify )

TION SPECIAL SCHOOLS LOCAL GOVERNMENT

7. FLEET SIZE 8. FIRM NO. 9. FIRM SIC

CODE A. TOTAL I Item* 7B—7E ) B. NO. SINGLE ENGINE C. NO. MULTI-ENGINE. PISTON D. NO.TURBO E. NO. HELICOPTER

TO: V~ 1

L

GENERAL AVIA TIO N

10. SELECTED OCCUPATIONS

ITEM LINE

NO.

TOTAL

PILOTS

TOTAL

M ECHA NICS

A. B

CURRENT 01

AGE 50 YEARS AND O VER 0 2

z

5

ONE YEAR AG O 03

o PEAKEMPL. IN 1967 04

a.

5 (Enter month in paren.) ( ) ( )

REPLACEMENT NEEDS IN

1968 05

5 5

« z TOTAL 1 0

S* <

3 O o < LESS THAN 1 M ONTH 11

> ONE M O NTH OR MORE 12

ONE YEAR HENCE 2 0

1- 

D Z PEAK EMPL. IN 1968

( Enter month in paren.)

21

( ) ( )

" O

t i

PEAK EMPL. IN 1970 22

FIXED-WING 23

HELICOPTER 24

TRAINING

NUMBER TO BE TRAINED BY

FIRM IN 1968 30

So. AIRLINE TRANSPORT 40

« < i COMMERCIAL 41

X “ INSTRUMENT 42

± o

FIXEb-WING ONLY 50

UJ o i HELICOPTER ONLY 51

O Si

FIXED-WING A N D HELIO 52

IIhours

FLOWN

TOTAL PILOT HOURS IN

PAST 12 MONTHS 60

NAME OF PERSON RECORDING THIS INFORMATION

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Civil Air Carriers

Questionnaire on Pilots and Aircraft Mechanics for Civil

Air Carriers and Instructions for Completion

Except for items 1 and 7, all items in the heading of the questionnaire have been completed. 

Enter in item 1 the date the questionnaire is completed. Enter in item 7 A (Fleet size) the total 

number of planes in your firm at the time of the survey. The entry for 7A should be the sum of 

items 7B through 7E. Include planes owned as well as those rented or leased from other firms. 

Please note: Firms owning planes for the purpose of renting or leasing to other firms should include 

only those planes in the firm which are not currently rented or leased. This distinction will avoid 

duplication in the overall count of planes.

For the purpose of this survey, please assume the following conditions when completing the 

questionnaire.

1. Qualified workers will be available to meet any anticipated employment needs.

2. The present long-term trend of economic growth of the United States will continue with 

no major setbacks for the next few years.

3. Scientific and technological advances will continue, affecting production methods, 

manpower requirements, and consumption patterns.

4. The present-day normal workweek at your firm will continue through the forecast 

periods.

5. Your current plans for expansion or modernization will materialize according to schedule.

6. Delivery of new planes will be on schedule.

7 . A irp ort fa cilities w ill b e ad eq u ate.

8. No further significant change in the international situation.

9. The Viet Nam conflict will neither abate nor accelerate.

10. No further call-ups of air reservists.

If your firm is engaged in more than one air-related activity such as an air taxi service, flight 

training, and operating an aircraft repair station, the data on the questionnaire should include all 

pilots and/or mechanics employed in all activities in all establishments of your firm.

Include data for pilots and mechanics stationed in foreign countries who are citizens of the United 

States.

Foil owing are instructions for entries on individual items in the body of the questionnaire. See pages 

41-42 for descriptions of the occupations. If yoir have a copy of the Dictionary o f Occupational

Titles (DOT) Volumes I and II, third edition, you may wish to refer to the codes given at the end of 

the descriptions on pages 41-42.

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Columns A through I: Selected Occupations

In making a count of the number of workers to be entered in columns A through I, include only 

those workers who spend more than one-half of their time in the specified occupations. See the 

section beginning on page 41 for descriptions of occupations. On all lines, the entries in column A 

should represent the sum of the entries in columns B and D, and the entries in column E should 

represent the sum of entries in columns F through I.

1. Employment

a. Current, Line 01. Enter the current total employment in each of columns A through I. 

Current employment pertains to workers employed at some time during the week the survey 

is made.

(1) Age 50 years and over, Line 02. In column A, enter the number of pilots and enter in 

column E the number of mechanics who are 50 years of age and over.

b. Year ago, Line 03. Enter in each of columns A through I the employment during the same 

week a year ago.

c. Peak employment in 1967, Line 04. Enter in each of columns A through I the 1967 peak 

employment, and enter in columns A and E in the parenthesis below, the name of the month 

this peak occurred.

d. Replacement needs in 1968, Line 05. Enter in each of columns A through I, the estimated 

number of workers you expect to need for replacements in 1968. Estimates of replacement 

needs should be the number of expected job separations due to workers (1) promoted to 

another occupation, and (2) leaving the labor force for such reasons as death, retirement, 

disability or entering the Armed Forces. Do not include workers who will leave to seek or 

accept other jobs, or workers expected to separate from your firm because of reduction in 

force, inadequate performance on the job or misconduct.

2. Current Vacancies

a. Total, Line 10. Enter for each of columns A through I the number of current unfilled job 

openings which are immediately available for filling by workers outside the firm and which 

the firm is actively seeking to fill. Include all part-time, permanent, and temporary vacancies. 

Exclude (1) jobs held for employees who will be recalled (2) jobs to be filled by transfer or 

demotion (3) jobs held for workers on paid or unpaid leave (4) jobs filled by overtime work 

which are not intended to be filled by new workers (5) job openings for which new workefs 

are already hired and scheduled to start work at a later date, and (6) jobs unoccupied because 

of a labor-management dispute.

(1) Less than 1 month, Line 11. Enter in each of columns A and B, and D through I the 

number of job openings existing for less than 1 month.

(2) One month or more, Line 12. Enter in each of columns A and B, and D through I the 

number of job openings existing for 1 month or more. If an exact count is not available, 

an estimate will suffice.

Note: Entries for lines 11 and 12 should add to the totals entered in line 10.

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3. Projected Employment

a. One year hence, Line 20. Enter the estimated employment 1 year hence in each of columns A 

through I.

b. Peak employment in 1968, Line 21. enter in each of columns A through I the estimated 1968 

peak employment, and enter in columns A and E in parenthesis below, the name of the 

month this peak is expected to occur.

c. Peak employment in 1970, Line 22. Enter in each of columns A through I the estimated 1970 

peak employment.

(1) Fixed-wing, Line 23. Enter in columns A through D the estimated employment of 

fixed-wing pilots during the peak month in 1970.

(2) Helicopter, Line 24. Enter in columns A through D the estimated employment of 

helicopter pilots during the peak month in 1970.

Note: Entries for lines 23 and 24 should add to the total entered in line 22.

When making entries in lines 20, 21, and 22 please exercise care to insure that 

the employment data reflect total employment and not solely the additional 

workers needed. For example, if a firm has 100 pilots at the time of the survey 

and the number is estimated to increase by 20 in the following year, the total 

pilots 1 year hence should be reported as 120.

4. Training

a. Number to be trained by firm in 1968, Line 30. Enter in each of columns A through I the 

number of workers expected to complete formal company training programs for promotion 

to each of the specified occupations in 1968. Flight and ground schools should enter the 

number of trainees expected to graduate in 1968, and to be qualified for employment in the 

specified occupations described on pages 41-42.

5. Highest Rating Held

a. Airline transport, Line 40. Enter in each of columns A through D the number of pilots who 

possess an airline transport rating.

b. Commercial, Line 41. Enter in each of columns A through D the number of pilots whose 

highest rating is a commercial rating.

Note: The total of entries in lines 40 and 41 may be equal to but cannot exceed the 

number of pilots in line 01.

(1) Instrument, Line 42. Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the number of pilots with 

commercial ratings in Line 41 who also hold instrument ratings.

6. Certified to Fly

a. Fixed-wing only, Line 50. Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the number of pilots 

certificated to fly only fixed-wing aircraft.

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b. Helicopter only, Line 5L Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the number of pilots 

certificated only to fly helicopters.

c. Fixed-wing and helicopter, Line 52. Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the number of 

pilots certificated to fly both fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft.

Note: The total of entries in lines 50, 51, and 52 should equal the entry in line 01.

7. Hours Flown

Total pilot hours flown in past 12 months, Line 60. Enter in each of columns A, B, and D the 

total number of hours flown by pilots in your firm in the 12 months preceding the survey week. 

If this is not available, an estimate will suffice.

Comments

Please supply any information which would be helpful in analyzing future needs for pilots and 

mechanics. Examples are plans for expansion of facilities, increase in size of plane fleet, or 

technological changes or trends which may, in your opinion, point to the need for training 

programs for additional pilots and mechanics or upgrading the skills of those already in those 

occupations. Also explain changes in the nature and extent of formal company training programs 

planned in future years, or difficulty in recruiting to fill existing job vacancies, particularly 

vacancies open 1 month or longer.

Descriptions of Occupations

Columns A, B, and D: Pilots

Includes occupations concerned with piloting airplanes for the transportation of passengers, freight, 

and mail, and other purposes such as charting the courses of planes by the use of instruments, 

charts, celestial observation, and dead reckoning. Must be federally licensed. Includes occupations 

concerned with the supervision of flight operations and maintenance when a pilot’s or navigator’s 

license is required. Included are chief pilots, instructor pilots, check pilots, airline pilots, and 

executive pilots. (See Dictionary o f Occupational Titles-D O T codes 196.168, .268, .283, and 

621.281.)

Column C: Flight Engineer—Pilot

Although an individual must be a certificated pilot, he must also meet the qualifications of a flight 

engineer as described below:

Makes preflight, inflight, and postflight inspections, adjustments, and minor repairs to insure safe 

and efficient operation of aircraft. Inspects aircraft prior to takeoff for defects sufch as fuel or oil 

leaks and malfunction in electrical, hydraulic, or pressurization systems according to preflight 

checklist. Verifies passenger and cargo distribution, and amount of fuel to insure that weight and 

balance of specifications are met. Monitors control panel to verify aircraft performance, and 

regulates engine speed according to instructions of pilot (DOT code 621.281).

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Column D: Flight Instructor

Although an individual must be a certificated pilot, he must also meet the qualifications of a flight 

instructor as described below:

Trains new and experienced company airline pilots in policy and use of equipment. Instructs new 

pilots in company regulations and procedures. Conducts courses for experienced company pilots to 

familiarize them with new equipment. May conduct review courses for pilots. Also includes 

instructor pilots employed by certificated flight schools (DOT code 196.228).

Column F: Certificated Aircraft and Engine Mechanics

Services, repairs, and overhauls aircraft and aircraft engines to insure airworthiness; repairs, replaces, 

and assembles parts, such as wings, fuselage, tail assembly, landing gear, control cables, propeller 

assembly, and fuel and air tanks, using tools, such as power shears, sheet metal breaker, arc and 

acetylene welding equipment, rivet gun, and air and electric drills to rebuild or replace airframes or 

its components. Consults manufacturers’ manuals and airlines’ maintenance manuals for specifications, and to determine feasibility of repair or replacement according to malfunction (DOT code 

621.281).

Column G: Certificated Airplane Electrician

Monitors and repairs airplane electrical equipment, using handtools. Examines conduits for breaks 

and weak areas before or after removal from airplane and replaces defective segments. Rewires 

airplane and arranges wiring and conduits so they do not become entangled or otherwise interfere 

with fuel lines or other equipment. Inspects and tests function boxes. Tests, repairs, and replaces 

airplane lighting systems including wiring, running, and landing light. Does not repair airplane 

ignition systems (DOT code 825.381).

Column H: Electronic Mechanics, as applied to Aviation

Repairs electronic equipment such as radar systems, telemetering systems, transmitters, antennas, 

and servomechanics, following blueprints and manufacturers’ specifications, and using handtools 

and test instruments. Tests faulty equipment and applies knowledge of functional operation of 

electronic units and systems to diagnose cause of malfunction. Tests electronic components and 

circuits to locate defects, using instruments such as oscilloscopes, signal generators, ammeters, and 

voltmeters (DOT code 828.281).

Column I: Other Mechanics

Includes certificated radio, instrument, propeller, and specialized services mechanics not specified in 

the questionnaire. Also includes mechanics engaged in comparable work who have received some 

training in one or more of the aviation mechanic specialties but who are not certificated.

General Aviation

Questionnaire on Pilots and Aircraft Mechanics for Firms

in General Aviation and Instructions for Completion

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Except for items 1 and 7, all items in the heading of the questionnaire have been completed. Enter 

in item 1 the date the questionnaire is completed. Enter in item 7A (Fleet Size) the total number of

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planes in your firm at the time of the survey. The entry for 7 A should be the sum of items 7B 

through 7E. Include planes owned as well as those rented or leased from other firms. Please note: 

Firms owning planes for the purpose of renting or leasing to other establishments should include 

only those planes in the firm which are not currently rented or leased. This distinction will avoid 

duplication in the overall count of planes.

For the purpose of this survey, please assume the following conditions when completing the 

questionnaire.

1. Qualified workers will be available to meet any anticipated employment needs.

2. The present long-term trend of economic growth of the United States will continue with 

no major setbacks for the next few years.

3. Scientific and technological advances will continue, affecting production methods, 

manpower requirements, and consumption patterns.

4. The present-day normal workweek at your firm will continue through the forecast 

periods.

5. Your current plans for expansion or modernization will materialize according to schedule.

6. Delivery of new planes will be on schedule.

7. Airport facilities will be adequate.

8. No further significant change in the international situation.

9. The Viet Nam conflict will neither abate nor accelerate.

10. No further call-ups of air reservists.

If your firm is engaged in more than one air-related activity such as an air taxi service, flight 

training, and operating an aircraft repair station, the data on the questionnaire should include all 

pilots and/or mechanics employed in all activities in all establishments of your firm.

Include data for pilots and mechanics stationed in foreign countries who are citizens of the United 

States.

Following are instructions for entries of individual items in the body of the questionnaire. See pages 

46-47 for descriptions of the occupations. If you have a copy of the Dictionary o f Occupational

Titles (DOT) Volumes I and II, third edition, you may wish to refer to the codes given at the end of 

the descriptions on pages 46-47.

Selected Occupations

In making a count of workers to be entered in columns A and B, include only those workers who 

spend more than one-half of their time in these occupations. See the section beginning on page 46 

for descriptions of occupations.

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1. Employment

a. Current, Line 01. Enter the current total employment in each of columns A and B. Current 

employment pertains to workers employed at some time during the week the survey is made.

(1) Age 50 years and over, Line 02. Enter the number of pilots and the number of mechanics 

who are 50 years of age and over.

b. Year ago, Line 03. Enter in each of columns A and B the employment during the same week a 

year ago.

c. Peak employment in 1967, Line 04. Enter in each of columns A and B the 1967 peak 

employment and enter in the parenthesis below, the name of the month this peak occurred.

d. Replacement needs in 1968, Line 05. Enter in each of columns A and B, the estimated 

number of workers you expect to need for replacements in 1968. Estimates of replacement 

needs should be the number of expected job separations due to workers (1) promoted to 

another occupation, and (2) leaving the labor force for such reasons as death, retirement, 

disability or entering the Armed Forces. Do not include workers who will leave to seek or 

accept other jobs, or workers expected to separate from your firm because of reduction in 

force, inadequate performance on the job or misconduct.

2. Current Vacancies

a. Total, Line 10. Enter in each of columns A and B the number of current unfilled job openings 

which are immediately available for filling by workers outside the firm and which the firm is 

actively seeking to fill. Include all part-time, permanent, and temporary vacancies. Exclude 

(1) jobs held for employees who will be recalled (2) jobs to be filled by transfer or demotion 

(3) jobs held for workers on paid or unpaid leave (4) jobs filled by overtime work which are 

not intended to be filled by new workers (5) job openings for which new workers are already 

hired and scheduled to start work at a later date, and (6) jobs unoccupied because of a 

labor-management dispute.

(1) Less than 1 month, Line 11. Enter in each of columns A and B the number of job 

openings existing for less than 1 month.

(2) One month or more, Line 12. Enter in each of columns A and B the number of job 

openings existing for 1 month or more. If an exact count is not available, an estimate will 

suffice.

Note: Entries for lines 11 and 12 should add to the totals entered in line 10, total 

number of vacancies.

3. Projected Employment

a. One year hence, Line 20. Enter the estimated employment 1 year hence in each of columns A 

and B.

b. Peak employment in 1968, Line 21. Enter the estimated 1968 peak employment and enter in 

the parenthesis below, the name of the month this peak is expected to occur in each of 

columns A and B.

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c. Peak employment in 1970, Line 22. Enter the estimated 1970 peak employment in each of 

columns A and B.

(1) Fixed-wing, Line 23. Enter in column A the estimated employment of fixed-wing pilots 

during the peak month in 1970.

(2) Helicopter, Line 24. Enter in column A the estimated employment of helicopter pilots 

during the peak month in 1970.

Note: Entries for fines 23 and 24 should add to the total entered in fine 22.

When making entries in fines 20, 21, and 22 please exercise care to insure that 

the employment data reflect total employment and not solely the additional 

workers needed. For example, if a firm has 100 pilots at the time of the survey 

and the number is estimated to increase by 20 in the following year, the total 

pilots 1 year hence should be reported as 120.

4. Training

a. Number to be trained by firm in 1968, Line 30. Enter in each of columns A and B the 

number of workers expected to complete formal company training programs for promotion 

to each of the specified occupations in 1968. Flight and ground schools should enter in each 

of columns A and B the number of trainees expected to graduate in 1968 and be qualified for 

employment in the specified occupations described on pages 41-42 of this attachment.

5. Highest Rating Held

a. Airline transport, Line 40. Enter the number of pilots who possess an airline transport rating.

b. Commercial, Line 41. Enter the number of pilots whose highest rating is a commercial rating.

Note: The total of entries in fines 40 and 41 may be equal to but cannot exceed, the 

number of pilots in fine 01.

(1) Instrument, Line 42. Enter the number of pilots with commercial ratings in fine 41 

who also hold instrument ratings.

6. Certified to Fly

a. Fixed-wing only, Line 50. Enter the number of pilots certificated to fly only fixed-wing 

aircraft.

b. Helicopter only, Line 51. Enter the number of pilots certificated only to fly helicopters.

c. Fixed-wing and helicopter, Line 52. Enter the number of pilots certificated to fly both 

fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft.

Note: The total of entries in lines 50, 51, and 52 should be equal to the entry in fine

01.

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7. Hours Flown

Total pilot hours flown in past month, Line 60. Enter the total number of hours flown by pilots 

in your firm in the 12 months preceding the survey week. If this is not available, an estimate will 

suffice.

Comments

Please supply any information which would be helpful in analyzing future needs for pilots and 

mechanics. Examples are plans for expansion of facilities, increase in size of plane fleet, or 

technological changes or trends which may, in your opinion, point to the need for training 

programs for additional pilots and mechanics or upgrading the skills of those already in those 

occupations. Also explain changes in the nature and extent of formal company training programs 

planned in future years, or difficulty in. recruiting to fill existing job vacancies, particularly 

vacancies open 1 month or longer.

Descriptions of Occupations

Pilots (Column A)

Includes occupations concerned with piloting airplanes for the transportation of passengers, freight, 

mail, agricultural operations, photography, and other purposes such as charting the courses of planes 

by the use of instruments, charts, celestial observation, and dead reckoning. Must be federally 

licensed. Includes occupations concerned with the supervision of flight operations and maintenance 

when a pilot’s or navigator’s license is required. Included are chief pilots, instructor pilots, check 

pilots, airline pilots, and executive pilots. (See Dictionary o f Occupational T itles-D OT codes 

196.168, .268, and .283.)

Mechanics (Column B)

1. Flight Engineer

Makes preflight, inflight, and postflight inspections, adjustments, and minor repairs to insure safe 

and efficient operation of aircraft. Inspects aircraft prior to takeoff for defects such as fuel or oil 

leaks and malfunction in electrical, hydraulic, or pressurization systems according to preflight 

checklist. Verifies passenger and cargo distribution, and amount of fuel to insure that weight and 

balance of specifications are met. Monitors control panel to verify aircraft performance, and 

regulates engine speed according to instructions of pilot (DOT code 621.281).

2. Certificated Aircraft and Engine Mechanics

Services, repairs, and overhauls aircraft and aircraft engines to insure airworthiness; repairs, 

replaces, and assembles parts, such as wings, fuselage, tail assembly, landing gear, control cables, 

propeller assembly, and fuel and air tanks, using tools, such as power shears, sheet metal breaker, 

arc and acetylene welding equipment, rivet gun, and air and electric drills to rebuild or replace 

airframes of its components. Consults manufacturers’ manuals and airlines’ maintenance manuals 

for specifications, and to determine feasibility of repair or replacement according to malfunction 

(DOT code 621.281).

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3. Certificated Airplane Electrician

Monitors and repairs airplane electrical equipment, using handtools. Examines conduits for 

breaks and weak areas before or after removal from airplane and replaces defective segments. 

Rewires airplane and arranges wiring and conduits so they do not become entangled or otherwise 

interfere with fuel lines or other equipment. Inspects and tests function boxes. Tests, repairs, and 

replaces airplane lighting systems including wiring, running, and landing light. Does not repair 

airplane ignition systems (DOT code 825.381).

4. Electronic Mechanics, as applied to Aviation

Repairs electronic equipment such as radar systems, telemetering systems, transmitters, antennas, 

and servomechanics, following blueprints and manufacturers’ specifications, and using handtools 

and test instruments. Tests faulty equipment and applies knowledge of functional operation of 

electronic units and systems to diagnose cause of malfunction. Tests electronic components and 

circuits to locate defects, using instruments such as oscilloscopes, signal generators, ammeters, 

and voltmeters (DOT code 828.281).

5. Other Mechanics

Include certificated radio, instrument, propeller, and specialized services mechanics not specified 

in the questionnaire. Also includes mechanics engaged in comparable work who have received 

some training in one or more of the aviation mechanic specialties but who are not certificated.

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Appendix C. USTES Survey Scope and Methodology

The April, 1968 survey of pilots and mechanics in civil aviation conducted by the U.S. 

Training and Employment Service (USTES) and the affiliated State employment security agencies 

covered all civil air carriers, about 10 percent of the estimated number of firms in general aviation, 

and the three military services of the U.S. Department of Defense. Descriptions of industry divisions 

and sectors included appear in appendix A.

Format of Survey Questionnaire

The questionnaire used in the survey was developed with the assistance and concurrence of 

the Federal Aviation Administration and the Department of Defense, the two agencies sponsoring 

the study. Space limitations on the questionnaire, and the effort to keep it as simple as possible, 

prevented the gathering of more detailed information.

The questionnaire used to survey the civil air carriers differed slightly from that designed for 

general aviation firms. While “line item” totals were the same on both questionnaires, that for civil 

air carriers requested detailed information on various categories of pilots and mechanics. The 

questionnaire for general aviation firms requested information only on totals for pilots and 

mechanics. Copies of the two questionnaires and instructions for their completion are included in 

Appendix B.

Survey Conducted by State Agencies

The survey was by mail and was conducted by the local offices of the State employment 

security agencies affiliated with the U.S. Department of Labor’s Manpower Administration. Each 

State agency was furnished with lists of selected names and addresses of firms to be surveyed in its 

State. At least one followup by mail was made on every nonrespondent. Fund limitations restricted 

the number of personal followups that could be made as part of the study.

Assumptions for Respondents

Employers were asked to assume the following in making their projections of employment:

1. Qualified workers will be available to meet any anticipated employment needs.

2. The present long-term trend of economic growth of the United States will continue with 

no major setbacks for the next few years.

.3. Scientific and technological advances will continue, affecting production methods, 

manpower requirements, and consumption patterns.

4. The present-day normal work-week of the firm will continue through the forecast 

periods.

5. Current plans for expansion or modernization will materialize according to schedule.

6. Delivery of new planes will be on schedule.

7. Airport facilities will be adequate.

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8 . There will be no significant change in the international situation.

9. The Viet Nam conflict will neither abate nor accelerate.

10. There will be no further call-ups of air reservists.

Complete listings of establishments to use as a basis for sample selection were not readily 

available in many of the individual air transportation categories. However, after exploration with 

industry associations and other sources in the various sectors, USTES staff developed a reasonably 

complete listing of employers upon which the survey sample was based.

Listed below are the aviation categories covered in the survey and the sources of firm names 

used in drawing the sample for each category.

Category Source

Civil Air Carriers

Certificated route air carriers

Other (supplemental, commercial and 

intrastate carriers)

General Aviation

Executive transportation

Aerial application

Air taxi, pilot and mechanic schools, 

and

Air Transport Association of America 

Federal Aviation Administration

National Business Aircraft Association

National Aerial Applicators Association, and State 

Aerial Applicator Associations

FAA directories and the World Aviation Directory

Industrial/special National Aerial Photographic Association, and firms

indicating special activities on their questionnaires

National Association of Aviation Officials, and State 

employment security agencies. Coast Guard, FAA, 

TVA, Justice, Agriculture, and Interior. The remaining Federal agencies indicated that very few or no 

pilots or mechanics were employed.

Department of Defense Army, Navy, Air Force

Government—Federal nondefense, State, 

and local

Cooperation Received

The U.S. Training and Employment Service and the affiliated State agencies received fine 

cooperation and assistance from many sources in obtaining responses from surveyed establishments 

and firms. The General Aviation District Offices (GADOS) of the FAA contacted and obtained 

responses from a number of aerial application firms, flight and ground schools, and repair stations 

which had failed to respond initially. In addition, these GADOS provided the State agencies with 

information on FAA-certificated aviation schools in selected labor areas for use in preparing

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statements assessing the current labor supply-demand and training situation for pilots and 

mechanics. The Air Transport Association of America, an organization of the scheduled airlines, 

encouraged all of its members in advance to complete and return the questionnaires. Moreover, the 

AT A supplied estimates of missing data on airline questionnaires and followed up on questionnaires 

from selected nonresponding airlines.

Problems Encountered in the Survey

The identification and survey of firms in the civil air carrier division presented relatively few 

problems because of the relatively small number of firms. Most air carriers are members of the Air 

Transport Association of America, and most are required to make reports to the Civil Aeronautics 

Board on their employment and operations.

This was not true of the survey of general aviation firms, however. As a result of the problems 

encountered in covering this division of the industry, special procedures for the collection of data 

had to be developed.

The assembly of sufficiently large lists of establishment names in each of the general aviation 

sectors from which to draw a 10-percent sample was a major problem. The lists of establishments 

available from membership rosters of various associations of aviation-oriented firms represented 

only a portion of the estimated total. For example, the membership directory of the National 

Business Aircraft Association contained less than 1,000 names—a total considerably lower than the 

estimated total number of firms using planes for transportation of business executives. Moreover, 

many membership lists included firms certificated by the FAA for two or more aviation activities. 

The FAA directories are limited to “certificated” schools, air taxi firms, and aircraft repair stations. 

The identification of firms in the industrial/special category was particularly difficult as this activity 

was usually a sideline for many firms. Firms known as “ fixed base operators,” were also difficult to 

categorize for purposes of the survey since they engage in multiple aviation sendees.

Finally, there was the problem of assuring adequate response due to: ( 1) the absence of any 

overall organization of these firms to encourage response; (2) the inclination of many firms to 

distrust the government’s motive in requesting the information; (3) the lack of incentive for many 

firms to complete the questionnaire because of their failure to appreciate the ultimate benefits of 

the study; and, finally, (4) the large turn-over among these firms, resulting iii no response from firms 

no longer in business.

Establishment Response in Survey

The overall establishment response rate for the survey was 53 percent, with civil air carriers 

showing a higher rate as follows:

Civil A ir Carriers

Number o f questionnaires1 Total Certificated General

aviation Total route

carriers

Other

S e n t ......................................................................... . . . 2,364 88 4 2 4 6 2,27 6

Received ................................................................ . . . 1,251 55 34 21 1,196

Percent r e s p o n s e ..................................................... 53 6 3 81 4 6 5 2

1 Excludes the three military services and 11 2 questionnaires received from various State and local

government establishments in 4 0 States.

The coverage of pilot and mechanic employment by certificated route air carriers was 

substantially higher than the 81 percent establishment response rate would indicate. The

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nonrespondents in the sector were mainly small carriers employing comparatively few pilots and 

mechanics.

Adjustments to Survey Data

The civil air carriers participating in the survey appeared to overestimate their short-term 

growth in pilots and mechanics. For example, the certificated route carriers indicated an increase of 

8.2 percent in pilot employment between 1967 and 1968, or nearly double the actual increase of 

4.5 percent subsequently reported by the Federal Aviation Administration. Accordingly, the survey 

data for 1968 were adjusted to show the actual rate of growth. Corresponding adjustments were 

made for other years on the assumption that the carriers also overestimated their prospective pilot 

employment growth. These adjustments affected projected gains between 1968 and 1969, and 

between peak employment in 1968 and peak employment in 1970. Appropriate adjustments were 

also made in the data for civil air carrier mechanics. However, no adjustments were made in the 

survey data for general aviation firms as no FAA “base employment” data were available for any 

year.

Inflation of Survey Data to National Totals

The 1967 and 1968 survey employment data for pilots and mechanics in civil air carrier firms 

were inflated to national totals on the basis of their relationship to the FAA figures for employment 

on certificate route air carriers for those years. Except for “hours flown by pilots,” the other items 

on the questionnaire were inflated by the same factor as used to inflate the 1968 employment. 

“Hours flown” were inflated by the same factor used to inflate the 1967 employment, since this 

item was for “the past 12 months.”

The survey employment data for general aviation firms were inflated to national totals by the 

ratio of the BLS employment estimates for 1967 to the survey employment data for 1967. (See 

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Requirements for Pilots and Mechanics in Civil Aviation, 1967-77, 

May 12, 1969).

Interpretation of Questionnaire Data

Peak Employment: Employers were asked for the month and level of peak employment for 

pilots and mechanics in 1967, 1968, and 1970. While the “peak employment” figure for a single 

employer would be valid, the sum of these figures probably would overstate the peak employment 

for the Nation. This is due to the fact that the individual employer peak months were spread over 

the year.

Training: Respondents were asked to report the number of persons expected to complete 

formal company training in 1968 for promotion to, or to qualify for, specified pilot and mechanic 

occupations in 1968. There were clear indications on many questionnaires that both employers and 

schools reported, instead, the number of employees or students in training. For this reason, these 

data are overstated.

Editing the Questionnaires: In addition to checking for internal consistency and arithmetical 

balance, each general aviation questionnaire was reviewed to determine that the firm was classified 

in the category most representative of its major activity, i.e., air taxi, school, aerial applicator, etc., 

as many firms indicated more than one activity.

Maintenance workers: The BLS and FAA data for civil air carrier mechanics include an 

estimated 3,000 maintenance workers, i.e., carpenters, electricians, etc., who work in air 

transportation establishments, but who are not considered aviation mechanics. The USTES survey 

data exclude these workers; they cover aircraft mechanics only.

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Pant II 

Long-Range 

Manpower Requirements

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Contents

Page

Summary............................................................................................................................... 1

Chapter I. U.S. air carrier industry....................................................................................... 3

Industry outlook .......................................................................................................... 3

Employment trends....................................................................................................... 5

Pilots..................................................................................................................... 5

Mechanics..................................... 7

Projected pilot and mechanic requirements .................................................................. 8

Pilot requirements............................................................................................... 8

Mechanic requirements ..................... 9

Chapter II. General aviation ............................................................................................... 11

Outlook ....................................................................................................................... 11

Pilot employment trends............................................................................................... 12

Mechanic employment trends................. .................................................................... 13

Projected pilot and mechanic requirements.................................................................. 14

Pilot requirements............................................................................................... 14

Mechanic requirements....................................................................................... 15

Chapter III. Government ..................................................................................................... 17

Pilot employment trends................................................................................................ 17

Mechanic employment trends.................................. 17

Projected pilot and mechanic requirements.................................................................. 17

Pilot requirements............................................................................................... 17

Mechanic requirements....................................................................................... 18

Chapter IV. Projection methods .......................................................................................... 19

Pilot and mechanic employment requirements ............................................................. 19

U.S. air carrier pilot projection—method A .................................................................. 19

Average crews per aircraft .................................................................................. 22

Pilots per crew ..................................................................................................... 22

U.S. air carrier pilot projection—method B .................................................................. 22

Revenue aircraft hours .......................................................... 24

Average airborne speed..................................... 24

Time.................................................................................................................... 26

U.S. air carrier mechanic projection method ................................................................ 26

Revenue aircraft hours ....................................................................................... 28

Average airborne speed....................................................................................... 28

Time.................................................................................................................... 28

General aviation pilot and mechanic employment requirements ................................... 29

General aviation pilot projection m ethod.................. 29

Current pilot employment ............................. 29

General aviation aircraft fleet, by type of aircraft and flying activity, 1967,1972,

and 1977 .......................................................................................................

General aviation pilot aircraft ratios.....................................................................

General aviation mechanic projection method .............................................................

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Contents—Continued

Page

Government pilot and mechanic employment requirements.......................................... 33

Pilot and mechanic replacement requirements ............................................................. 34

U.S. air carrier pilot replacement needs............................................................... 34

General aviation and government pilot replacement needs.................................. 35

U.S. air carrier, general aviation, and government mechanic replacement needs . . 39

Tables:

1. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics resulting from employment

growth and from retirements and deaths, by sector of civil aviation, 1968-77, 

1968-72, and 1973-77 ...................... ............................................................ 2

2. Employment of pilots and mechanics, by sector of civil aviation, estimated 1967

and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977 ................................ 2

3. Scheduled and nonscheduled route air carrier activity, selected measures, 1950,

1955,1958-67 .................................................................................................... 3

4. Aircraft in certificated route air carrier operations, by type of aircraft, 1950,1955,

1958-67 

5. Total employment and pilot and mechanic employment in certificated route air

carriers, 1950,1955, 1958-67 ............................................................................. 5

6 . Revenue passenger miles flown by scheduled route air carriers, by type of traffic,

estimated 1967 and projected 1972 and 1977 .................................................. 7

7. Total aircraft in the service of U.S. air carriers, estimated 1967 and projected 1972

and 1977 ............................................................................................................ 7

8 . Employment of pilots and mechanics by U.S. air carriers, estimated 1967 and

projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977 8

9. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics resulting from employment

growth and from retirements and deaths, by U.S. air carriers, 1968-77, 1968-72, 

and 1973-77 ....................................................................................................... 9

10. Revenue aircraft hours, by type of aircraft, U.S. air carriers, estimated 1967 and

forecast 1972 and 1977 10

11. Active general aviation aircraft, by type of aircraft, 1958-67 and forecast 1972 and

1977 

12. Estimated hours flown in general aviation, by type of flying, 1950-67 and fiscal

years 1972 and 1977 (thousands of hours).......................................................... 13

13. Estimated distribution of general aviation aircraft, by type of flying, 1967 ........... 14

14. Active general aviation aircrafts, by type of aircraft, estimated 1967 and forecast

1972 and 1977 

15. Estimated employment of pilots in general aviation, by type of flying, 1967 .... 15

16. Estimated mechanics employed in general aviation, by type of repair station, 1967 . 15

17. Projected requirements for general aviation pilots and mechanics resulting from

employment growth and from retirements and deaths, 1968-77, 1968-72, and 

1973-77 

18. Employment of pilots and mechanics in general aviation, estimated 1967 and

projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977 16

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Contents—Continued

Page

T ables—Continued

19. Employment of pilots and mechanics in government, by type of government,

estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977 .... IB

20. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics in government resulting from

employment growth and from retirements and deaths, 1968-77, 1968-72, and 

1973-77 18

21. U.S. air carrier pilot employment requirements projection to 1972 (method A) . . 20

22. U.S. air carrier pilot employment requirements projection to 1977 (method A) . . 20

23. Data inputs for projecting requirements for U.S. route air carrier pilots (method B)

and mechanics ............................................................................... 24

24. Selected results for regression analysis for projecting employment requirements for

pilots in U.S. route air carriers (method B ) ........................................................ 24

25. Selected results of regression analysis for projecting employment requirements for

mechanics in U.S. route air carriers .................................................................. 26

26. Ratio of mechanics to aircraft, U.S. route air carriers, 1953-67 ............................. 28

27. Preliminary and final estimates of the instructional flying aircraft fleet, by type of

aircraft, 1967,1972, and 1977 29

28. Estimated general aviation aircraft fleet, by type of flying and type of aircraft,

1967,1972, and 1977 ................................, .................................................. 31

29. Procedure for estimating executive, air taxi, and industrial/special flying pilot/

aircraft ratios, by type of aircraft, 1967 .......................................................... 32

30. Estimated ratio of pilots to aircraft in general aviation, by type of aircraft and type

of flying, 1967 .................................................................................................. 32

31. Average annual utilization of general aviation aircraft, by type of aircraft, 1964,

and forecast to 1975 33

32. Procedure for projecting employment requirements for pilots in instructional

flying, by type of aircraft, 1972 and 1977 ........................................................ 34

33. Procedure for estimating general aviation pilot retirement and death losses, 1968-72

and 1973-77 ............................................ 36

34. Procedure for estimating government pilot retirement and death losses, 1968-77,

1968-72, and 1973-77 36

35. Estimated general aviation pilot retirements and deaths, by type of flying, 1968-77,

1968-72, and 1973-77 37

36. Procedure for estimating U.S. air carrier mechanic retirement and death losses,

1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 ........................................................................ 37

37. Procedure for estimating general aviation mechanic retirement and death losses,

1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 ........................................................................ 38

38. Procedure for estimating government mechanic retirements and death losses,

1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77 ........................................................................ 38

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Contents—Continued

Page

Charts:

1. Domestic intercity passenger miles, selected carriers, 1950-66 ................................ 4

2. Employment in U.S. certificated route air carriers, and selected industry groups,

1950-67 6

3. Employment of pilots by U.S. route air carriers, 1950-66, and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977 (method A) ............................................... 21

4. Pilot monthly pay hours and flight hours, experience of a major U.S. air carrier,

1957-66, and BLS projections, 1972 and 1977 .................................................. 23

5. Employment of pilots in U.S. route air carriers, actual 1953-66, and calculated

1953-66,1972, and 1977 (method B) ............................................................... 25

6. Employment of mechanics in U.S. route air carriers, actual 1953-66, and calculated

1953-66,1972, and 1977 27

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Summary

During the past two decades, airplane pilots and 

mechanics have been among the Nation’s fastest growing 

occupations. In 1967, nearly 60,000 pilots and 103,500 

mechanics were employed by the civil aviation industry. 

A continuation of this rapid employment expansion is 

expected during the 1967-77 period. The purpose of this 

study was to anticipate future needs and to establish, 

where data permitted, a sound procedure for estimating 

future requirements for these highly trained workers.

The projections presented in this study are based on 

the levels of aviation activity forecast by the Federal 

Aviation Administration (FAA).1 Therefore, in evaluating the estimates of future manpower requirements, the 

assumptions underlying the FAA forecasts should be 

borne in mind. FAA defines the essential elements 

supporting its forecasts as:

A continuing high rate o f growth in the economy as

measured by GNP and the assumption that the passenger

fare structure will continue to decline. Gross national

product is forecast at an average real growth rate o f 4.25

percent, and average fares are forecast to decline, in real

terms, between 2 and 3 percent per year.2

The FAA projections of aviation activity also were 

developed under the implicit assumption that the Viet 

Nam hostilities would not continue into the 1970’s.

Expansion of employment in civil aviation is expected to be very rapid during the 1967-77 decade. 

Growth of the U.S. air carrier sector of civil aviation will 

be stimulated primarily by the rising transportation 

needs of the Nation’s growing population, coupled with 

a continuing shift to air travel at the expense of other 

modes of commercial transportation. General aviation 

activity will continue to expand, spurred by population 

growth, rising personal and business incomes, and 

increased leisure time. Convenience and competitive 

advantage will attract more and more business firms to 

operate their own aircraft. The rising need for fast, 

convenient transportation service from airport to downtown business centers or other airports and between 

smaller urban areas will increase the need for air-taxi 

service. Growth in activities such as crop dusting, 

pipeline patrolling, and the use of aircraft in certain 

construction activities also will contribute to the growth 

of general aviation. In Federal, State and local governments, flying activities will continue to expand slowly, 

as aircraft are used increasingly in activity such as traffic 

surveillance, forest conservation protection programs, 

and flight instruction at public institutions.

The expansion of all civil aviation activities depends 

on the availability of qualified airplane pilots and 

mechanics. Requirements for pilots in civil aviation, 

resulting from both occupational employment growth 

and replacement needs, are expected to be approximately 60,000 through the decade ending in 1977. (See 

table 1.) More than 82 percent of total employment 

requirements, or about 50,000 workers, will result from 

growth as pilot employment requirements increase from 

an estimated 60,000 in 1967 to a projected 110,000 by 

1977. (See table 2.) Approximately three-fifths, or 

about 37,000 of all pilot requirements will be needed 

during the 1973-77 period. The general aviation sector 

of the industry alone will require over 36,000 new pilots 

over the decade, with more than half of these needs 

occurring in the last half of the projection period. Total 

requirements for aircraft mechanics throughout civil 

aviation are expected to number 75,000, and most of 

these requirements will result from occupational growth 

as mechanic employment needs increase sharply from 

approximately 104,000 to 164,000 between 1967 and 

1977. Unlike the situation for pilots, however, the need 

for mechanics is divided more equally between the first 

and second half of the projection period. Of the 75,000 

new mechanics that will be needed, two-thirds, or

50,000, will be employed in general aviation.

1 New air carrier forecasts to 1 9 7 9 have been released

recently by the FAA. Although direct comparisons for the target

year 19 7 7 cannot be made, indications are that several key

variables (e.g., number o f aircraft hours flown) may be somewhat higher in the more recent report. Consequently, the

projections o f pilot and mechanic requirements presented in this

report may be understated, particularly in a specific flying

activity, such as instructional flying, to the extent that the FAA

forecasts for 1 9 77 have been revised. Overall, however, such

changes should not change substantially the future pilot and

mechanic employment requirements shown in this report.

2Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-1977 (Federal Aviation Administration, January 1 9 6 7 ), p. 3.

N ote: The Federal Aviation Administration designation has

changed recently from the Federal Aviation Agency. The title

Federal Aviation Administration is used in this study to apply to

both designations.

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K) Table 1. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics resulting from employment growth and

from retirements and deaths, by sector of civil aviation, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77

Projected requirements

Average

annual Occupation and 1968-77 1968-72 1973-77 civil aviation requirements

sector Total Growth Replacements Total Growth Replacements Total Growth Replacements 1968-77

requirements requirements requirements

Pilots.......................... 60,200 49,600 10,600 23,400 19,600 3,900 36,800 30,100 6,800 6,000

Air carriers............ 22,800 18,000 4,800 6,500 5,000 1,500 16,300 13,000 3,300 2,300

General aviation . . 36,200 30,700 5,500 16,300 14,100 2,200 19,900 16,600 3,300 3,600

Government . . . . 1,200 900 300 600 500 200 600 500 200 100

Mechanics................. 75,000 60,400 14,600 37,200 30,700 6,500 37,900 29,700 8,200 7,500

Air carriers............ 24,700 18,000 6,700 12,100 9,000 3,100 12,600 9,000 3,600 2,500

General aviation . . 50,200 42,400 7,800 25,000 21,700 3,300 25,200 20,700 4,500 5,000

Government . . . . 100 — 100 100 — 100 100 — 100 (1/)

-1/Less than 50.

-2/Employment estimates in this bulletin are for 1967; projected requirements reflect the 1968 to 1977 period.

N O TE: Individual items may not add to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Table 2. Employment of pilots and mechanics, by sector of civil aviation, estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977

Occupation and civil

aviation sector

Estimated

1967

employment

Employment

requirements Net growth

1972 1977 Total

1968-77 1968-72 1973-77

Pilots.......................................................................................................................................... 60,100 79,700 109,700 49,600 19,600 30,100

Air carrier..................................................................................................................... 33,100 38,100 51,100 18,000 5,000 13,000

General aviation............................................................................................................. 25,000 39,200 55,700 30,700 14,100 16,600

Government!/................................................................................................................ 2,000 2,400 2,900 900 500 500

Mechanics................................................................................................................................. 103,500 134,200 163,900 60,400 30,700 29,700

Air carrier...................................................................................................................... 52,000 61,000 70,000 18,000 9,000 9,000

General aviation............................................................................................................. 50,400 72,100 92,800 42,400 21,700 20,700

Government!/....................................................................................................... .. 1,100 1,100 1,100 —

^Excludes all civilian pilots and mechanics employed by U.S. Department of Defense as well as m ilitary personnel.

NOTE: Individual items may not add to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Chapter I. U.S. Air Carrier Industry3

The U.S. air carrier industry is one of the fastest 

growing industries in the United States. As illustrated in 

chart 1, the number of domestic intercity passenger 

miles flown by scheduled air carriers has grown at a 

tremendous pace during the 1950’s and 1960’s. Commercial motor carrier passenger miles declined from 

1951 through 1959, then moved upward through 1966 

but did not exceed the 1951 level. Since 1951, intercity 

passenger miles traveled by railroads have declined.4

As table 3 indicates, only 10.3 billion revenue 

passenger miles (including domestic and international) 

were flown by air carriers in 1950; yet, by the end of the 

decade this number had nearly quadrupled, reaching 

37.8 billion in 1959. The rapid rise in passenger traffic 

continued unabated into the present decade, and by 

1967 revenue passenger miles topped 111.8 billion. 

Other indicators of airline activity showed similar 

increases. Between 1950 and 1967, revenue ton-miles 

grew from 1.4 billion in 1950 to 15.7 billion; revenue 

passenger originations jumped from 19.5 million to 

135.4 million.5

Although employment has increased at a rapid pace, 

the growth in the volume of air carrier traffic has been 

much greater. This faster growth in traffic has been 

possible because of rapid productivity gains in the 

industry. Improvements in aircraft and a myriad of other 

innovations, ranging from improved baggage handling 

techniques to the introduction of computerized reservation procedures, have produced a rapid rise in output per 

man-hour. According to a recent BLS study, “output per 

employee indexes for the air transportation industry

Table 3. Scheduled and nonscheduled route air carrier activity,

selected measures, 1950,1955,1958-67

[In thousands of miles flown]

Year

Revenue

passenger

miles

Revenue

cargo

ton-miles

Revenue

ton-miles

Revenue

aircraft

miles

1950 ................. 10,343,000 380,385 1,397,670 488,227

1955 ................. 24,732,502 682,885 3,087,808 800,499

1958 ................. 32,967,549 951,578 4,120,228 1,022,044

1959 ................. 37,782,162 1,104,424 4,734,093 1,081,678

1960 ................. 40,049,643 1,173,816 5,024,283 1,040,058

1 9 6 1 ................. 41,791,655 1,372,831 5,394,631 1,017,090

1962 ................. 46,269,857 1,780,437 6,238,261 1,074,044

1963 ................. 53,216,469 1,756,272 6,860,302 1 ,1 4 33 90

1964 ................. 61,798,668 2,058,097 8,015,942 1,239,127

1965 ................. 73,215,954 2,807,221 9 3 9 4 ,9 8 3 1,418,373

1966 ................. 88,142,740 3,862,774 12,440355 1,602,785

1967 ................. 111,778,520 4,760,382 15,683,236 2,009,032

SOURCE: 1950: BLS Estimates Based on Handbook o f A irlin e Statistics, 1965

Edition, (Civil Aeronautics Board). 1955, 1958-64: Handbook o f A irlin e Statistics,

1965 Edition, (Civil Aeronautics Board), p. 129. 1965-66: FAA Statistical Handbook

Of Aviation, 1967 Edition (Federal Aviation Administration), pp. 160-161. 1967:

Unpublished Data from the Federal Aviation Administration.

have increased at a rate of almost 8 percent a year since 

1947, the highest rate for any major industry. As a result 

of this rate of gain, productivity levels in 1966 were five 

times greater than in 1947. By contrast, output per 

worker in the total private economy during the same 

period increased at an annual average rate of only 2.8 

percent.”6 The growth in traffic, however, increased 

faster than the gains in productivity and resulted in the 

rapid growth of employment levels experienced by the 

industry during the past two decades.

Industry outlook

During the 1967-77 decade, the Nation’s air carriers 

are expected to undergo further expansion. In 1977, 

scheduled route air carriers are expected to fly a total of 

266 billion revenue passenger miles, compared with an 

estimated 87.5 billion in 1967, an increase of 204 

percent. (See table 6.) This growth represents an annual 

increase of nearly 12 percent, almost equal to the annual 

rate of growth experienced during the 1950-67 period, 

but substantially lower than the average growth of 20 

percent reported for 1964-67.7 Increases in air freight 

volume are anticipated to be even greater. Freight and 

express revenue ton-miles accounted for only 11 percent 

of total revenue ton-miles in 1947, yet by 1966, it had 

increased to about 25 percent.8 Even faster growth is 

expected in the coming decade with the advent of 

aircraft specially designed to carry cargo. Such aircraft 

will make possible faster service at reduced rates, which 

will attract additional customers. Because of larger, more

q

The U.S. air carrier industry, as covered in this report,

includes (1 ) scheduled and nonscheduled domestic and international route airlines, (2 ) supplemental air carriers authorized

to perform passenger and cargo charter service, and (3 ) commercial-operator air carriers that do business on a private for-hire

basis.

4 Since employment and traffic data are incomplete for

supplemental and commercial-operator air carriers, the discussion o f past trends is limited to the (scheduled and nonscheduled) route air carriers. However, in the discussion o f

projected employment requirements, the needs o f all U.S.

certified air carriers, including the supplemental and commercial

operators, are taken into account.

5 FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, 1 9 5 8 through

19 6 7 Editions, (Federal Aviation Administration).

6 Joseph E. Dragonette and Chester Myslicki, “Air Transport: Trends in Output Per Em ployee,” Monthly Labor Review

(U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics, February

19 6 8 ), pp. 13-16.

1Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1967-1977 (Federal Aviation Administration, January 19 67 ), p. 20.

8 Dragonette and Myslicki, op. cit., p. 16.

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BILLIONS OF MILES

CHART 1

DOMESTIC INTERCITY PASSENGER-MILES,

SELECTED CARRIERS, 1950-66

SOURCES: FAA STATISTICAL HANDBOOK OF AVIATION, (FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION),

1962 AND 1967 EDITIONS.

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Table 4. Aircraft in certificated route air carrier operations,

by type of aircraft, 1950,1955,1958-67

Year Fleet size

Aircraft type

Piston T urboprop Turbojet Helicopter

1950 . . 1,179 1,168 11

1955 . . 1,480 1,453 8 - - 19

1958 . . 1,895 1,777 90 6 22

1959 . . 1,850 1,530 213 84 23

1960 . . 1,867 1,413 227 202 25

1961 . . 1,877 1,282 257 319 19

1962 . . 1,831 1,164 251 396 20

1963 . . 1,832 1,136 250 426 20

1964 . . 1,863 1,026 259 558 20

1965 . . 1,896 867 296 712 21

1966 . . 2,027 676 352 978 21

1967 . . 2,188 460 414 1,292 22

SOURCE: 1950: FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation, I9 6 0 edition, op. cit.

1955: FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation, 1963 edition, op. cit., table 7.3, p. 83.

1958-1966: FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation, 1967 edition, op. cit., table 7.8, p.

83. 1967: Facts and Figures, 1968 (A ir Transport Association of America, Washington,

D.C.), p. 38

powerful aircraft that are now in the development and 

testing stages, all indications point toward a substantial 

increase in air-freight activity during the next decade.

The size and composition of the aircraft fleet are 

expected to change substantially during the next decade. 

According to FAA estimates, the number of aircraft 

operated by U.S. air carriers will grow from an estimated 

2,337 in 1967 to 3,500 in 1977. (See table 7.) The 

growing volume in both passengers and freight will 

increase aircraft requirements. During the past decade, 

fleet size has remained relatively stable, as the increases 

in passenger and freight volume largely were absorbed 

through the transition to larger capacity and faster 

aircraft. Between 1958 and 1964, the number of aircraft 

in operation remained approximately the same, yet 

available seat miles doubled from 55 billion to 110 

billion and revenue cargo ton-miles more than doubled 

from about 1 billion to slightly over 2 billion. (See table

3.) Future increases in aircraft capacity and speed will be 

more than offset by the growth expected in passenger 

and freight volume and will result in an increase in the 

fleet size and change in its composition. (See table 7.)

The number of aircraft operated by route air carriers 

also has grown but at a far slower pace; this figure 

increased from 1,179 in 1950 to 2,188 in 1967. (See 

table 4.) The rapid growth in traffic unaccompanied by a 

corresponding increase in fleet size was possible because 

of the transition from the piston powered aircraft of the 

early 1950’s to turboprop and turbojet aircraft which 

are larger and faster. Turbine powered aircraft were 

utilized for the first time in the air carrier service in

9 For the purpose o f this study, pilots are defined as all

cockpit personnel including pilots, copilots, flight engineers, and

navigators.

1955. The first pure jets, or turbojets, were put into 

service in 1958. By 1967, turbine powered aircraft made 

up over three-fourths of the route air carrier fleet; 

turbojets alone accounted for nearly three-fifths of all 

aircraft.

Employment trends

Pilots. In response to the rapid increase in the demand 

for air travel, employment in the U.S. air carrier industry 

also has undergone a dramatic increase. As table 5 

shows, only 86,000 workers were employed by certificated route air carriers in 1950. Throughout the 1950’s 

employment increased steadily as the volume of passenger traffic moved upward. By 1960, employment had 

reached 167,300 workers, an increase of 95 percent 

during the decade. Employment continued to expand 

during the early 1960’s and by 1967 reached a high of

276,000 workers. Between 1950 and 1967, employment 

in the route airlines increased 221 percent, far outstripping the growth rate reported in nearly every major 

industry.

During the same period, employment in manufacturing increased only 27 percent; finance, insurance, and 

real estate, 68 percent; and transportation and public 

utilities, 6 percent. (See chart 2.)

In 1967, about 31,000 pilots9 were employed by 

U.S. certificated route air carriers, and another 2,000 

were estimated to be employed by suplemental and 

commercial operator air carriers. (See table 8.) The 

number of pilots employed by certificated route air

Table 5. Total employment and pilot and mechanic employment in

certificated route air carriers, 1950,1955,1958-67

Year

Total

air carrier

em ploym ent

P ilo ts l/ Mechanics*^/

1950 .......................................... 8 5 ,9 0 0 9 ,5 0 0 2 0,5 00

1955 .......................................... 126,900 14,600 3 0,4 00

1958 .......................................... 152,100 17,600 3 0 ,8 0 0

1959 .......................................... 165,500 18,800 3 2 ,8 0 0

1960 .......................................... 1 67,300 17,500 3 4 ,5 0 0

1 9 6 1 .......................................... 169,941 18,098 34,0 65

1962 .......................................... 172,827 17,971 34,9 25

1963 .......................................... 178,887 18,310 3 4 ,4 5 3

1964 .......................................... 191,818 19,551 3 9 ,3 6 0

1965 .......................................... 210 ,79 5 2 1,9 72 4 1,6 67

1966 .......................................... 243,701 2 7,807 4 5,3 27

1967 .......................................... 2 76 ,02 3 3 0,9 56 5 0 ,0 1 6

-l/ln clu d e pilots, copilots, flight engineers, and navigators.

^ In c lu d e s small number o f other maintenance workers, such as carpenters

and electricians, th at are included in Federal Aviation Adm inistration statistics

covering mechanics.

S O U R C E : 1950, 1955, 1958-60: Employment Requirements and Changing

Occupational Structure in Civil Aviation, (BLS Bulletin 1367, June 1964), table

8, p. 18. 1961-66: FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, op. cit., 1962-67

Editions. 1967: Facts and Figures, 1968, op. cit., p. 40.

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CHART 2

EMPLOYMENT IN

U.S. CERTIFICATED ROUTE AIR CARRIERS,

AND SELECTED INDUSTRY GROUPS, 1950-67

INDEX (1950 = 100)

SOURCE: AIR CARRIER EMPLOYMENT - FAA STATISTICAL HANDBOOK OF AVIATION, op. cit.,

1958 THROUGH 1967 EDITIONS.

OTHER INDUSTRIES - EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS STATISTICS FOR

THE UNITED STATES 1909-68, (BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, AUGUST 1968).

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Table 6. Revenue passenger miles flown by scheduled route air carriers,

by type of traffic, estimated 1967 and projected 1972 and 1977

Type of traffic Estimated

1967

Projected Percent

increase

1977 1967-771972

Revenue passenger miles (billions) . . 87.5 149.0 266.0 204

Dom estic........................................ 66.1 112.0 200.0 203

International................................. 21.4 37.0 66.0 208

S O U R C E : A via tion Forecast Fiscal Years 1967-1977, (Federal A viatio n A d m in istra tio n , January 1 9 6 7 ,) table 1, p. 2 0 .

carriers has grown substantially during the 1950’s and 

1960’s. As shown in table 5, fewer than 10,000 pilots 

were employed by these air carriers in 1950. During the 

1950’s, employment grew rapidly and reached nearly

19,000 by 1959. Little change in pilot employment 

occurred during the early 1960’s. However, since 1964, 

the number of pilots employed by certificated route air 

carriers has grown by over 58 percent, increasing from 

19,600 in 1964 to nearly 31,000 in 1967. Pilots 

employed by supplemental and commercial operator air 

carriers increased from fewer than an estimated 1,000 in 

1950 to about 2,200 in 1967.

In general, pilot employment has grown in response 

to an acceleration in the demand for air transportation 

services. However, although measures of output, such as 

revenue passenger miles flown or revenue ton-miles 

flown, have increased at a fairly constant rate since 

1950, pilot employment has grown in a more irregular 

manner. These varying trends result primarily from 

factors influencing pilot productivity. Overall, pilot 

productivity increased dramatically during the 1950’s 

and 1960’s. Revenue passenger miles flown grew tenfold 

during this period, whereas pilot employment only 

tripled. These gains in productivity resulted primarily 

from the introduction of larger and faster aircraft.

Table 7. Total aircraft in the service of U.S. air carriers,

estimated 1967 and projected 1972 and 1977

Aircraft type Estimated

1967

Projected Percent

change

1967-771972 1977

Total aircraft....................... 2,337 2,875 3,500 + 50

Fixed wing a ir c r a ft.............................. 2,315 2,847 3,470 + 50

J e t.................................................. 1,044 2,194 2,923 +180

T u rb o p ro p ................................. 396 402 488 + 23

P iston........................................... 875 251 59 - 93

H e lic o p te r.............................................. 22 28 30 + 36

N O T E : T o tal aircraft in service differs fro m aircraft in certificatio n route air carrier operations (table 4 o f this report) in th a t it includes a ircraft operated by supplem ental and com m ercial operator air carriers.

S O U R C E : F A A A via tion Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-1977, (Federal A viatio n

A d m in istratio n , January 1 9 6 7 ) table 3, p. 2 2 .

Between 1958 and 1963, the shift toward jet-powered 

aircraft was largely responsible for a 61 percent increase 

in revenue passenger miles flown, but pilot employment 

did not increase. Over the long run, however, growth in 

traffic volume has more than offset productivity gains 

and the net effect has been a rise in the requirement for 

pilots. During the past 3 years (1965-67), increases in 

traffic volume have far outstripped productivity gains, 

and pilot employment has grown at an unprecedented 

pace. (See table 5.) The increase in pilot employment 

was 2,400 in 1965,5,800 in 1966, and 3,100 in 1967, or 

an average increase of 3,800 a year for the period. 

Although a number of factors, such as increased training 

and retraining and pilot stockpiling, played a role in this 

rapid rise, the primary determinant was the unprecedented growth in air carrier traffic.

M echanics, In 1967, the Nation’s air carriers employed 52,000 mechanics, certified route air carriers 

employed about 50,000, and supplemental and commercial operator air carriers employed an estimated 2,000. 

(See table 8.) During the 1950’s and 1960’s, the number 

of mechanics employed by certificated route air carriers 

increased rapidly, though at a somewhat slower pace 

than the employment of pilots. (See table 5.) Mechanic 

employment by these carriers rose from 20,500 in 1950 

to 50,000 by 1967, an increase of 144 percent. 

Employment of these workers increased nearly every 

year during this period; the most rapid growth occurred 

during the 1960’s, especially since 1963.

To a large extent, the mechanic work force has 

expanded to meet the growing maintenance needs of a 

larger, more sophisticated aircraft and an expanded 

aircraft fleet. In 1950, only 1,179 piston aircraft were 

operated by route air carriers (table 4). Many of these 

aircraft were relatively small, such as the DC-3. By 1967, 

the number of aircraft owned and operated by the 

Nation’s certificated route air carriers had grown to 

2,188—larger turbojet aircraft accounted for nearly 

three-fifths of these.

Several new types of aircraft will be introduced 

during the decade. The first “jumbo” jets (Boeing 747) 

were scheduled to enter service in late 1969 and will 

account for an important part of the total fleet by 1977. 

The smaller 2-engine jets already in operation also will 

grow in number as more are put into service on 

intermediate and short distance routes.10 According to

IQAviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1967-1977 (Federal Aviation Administration, January 1967), table 3, p. 22.

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Table 8. Employment of pilots and mechanics by U.S. air carriers,,

estimated 1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977

Occupation

Estimated

1967

Projected

requirements Percent

increase,

employment 1972 1977 1967-77

P ilo ts ........................................ 33,100 38,100 51,100 54

M ech an ics.............................. 52,000 61,000 70,000 35

N O T E : Percents besed on unrounded numbers.

S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics.

FAA, the first supersonic transport, the “Concorde,” 

will begin operations in 1972, with the American SST 

joining the air carrier fleet in 1975. The introduction of 

these aircraft will be a continuation of the historical 

trend toward larger and faster aircraft. By 1977, the 

FAA estimates that 86 SST’s will be in operation; 

undoubtedly most will be used in transoceanic flights. 

As the size and speed of aircraft increased, the need for 

more sophisticated instrumentation and increasingly 

complex guidance, communication, and control systems 

also increased. These and other technological advances in 

aircraft design added substantially to maintenance requirements, especially for electronics and instrument 

repairmen.

Some technological innovations partially offset the 

increases in maintenance requirements during the 1950’s 

and 1960’s. Turbine engines required less maintenance 

than the piston engines they replaced. Increases in the 

reliability of airframes, communication systems, and 

many other aircraft parts made possible by new materials, such as plastics and new alloys as well as 

improvements in component design, also have reduced 

maintenance needs. The development of modem test 

equipment and advances in tool design also reduced 

maintenance requirements. Overall, such advances 

increased the productivity* of the maintenance work 

force and tended to moderate the growth in maintenance manpower requirements.

Projected pilot and mechanic requirements

Total pilot and mechanic requirements of the 

Nation’s air carriers for 1972 and 1977 were made 

within the framework of the air carrier activity and fleet 

forecasts developed by the FAA in its 1967 report, 

A via tio n F orecasts Fiscal Years 1967-1977. In preparing 

these projections, a variety of methods were tested. For 

a complete discussion of the methods selected for use in 

developing the projections of employment requirements

and the procedures followed in determining replacement 

needs, see chapter IV, Projection Methods.

P ilo t requirem ents. A total of about 23,000 additional pilots will be needed by the Nation’s air carriers 

between 1967 and 1977. Nearly four-fifths of the new 

requirements will result from occupational growth. (See 

table 9.) Between 1967 and 1977, pilot requirements 

resulting from growth of the occupation are expected to 

rise 18,000, from 33,000 to 51,000, an increase of 54 

percent (See table 8.) By comparison, during the 

1958-67 decade, pilot employment increased 13,000, 

about one-fourth less than the projected growth over the 

decade ahead. However, the 1967-77 rate of increase 

implied by this projection is only 54 percent, compared 

with the 76-percent increase of the 1958-67 decade. A 

large share (over 11,000) of this past employment 

growth occurred in 3 years, 1965-67. Except for this 

period, the rate of increase was far less than that 

projected for the 1967-77 decade.

In addition to occupational growth requirements,

4,800 new pilots will be needed over the next decade as 

replacements. Based on age data from FAA airmenmedical records and unpublished data obtained from the 

Air Transport Association, 1 out of every 7 pilots 

currently employed by the air carriers can be expected 

to retire or die from 1968 through 1977. These 

relatively high replacement needs reflect the large 

number of air carrier pilots who received their flight 

training during World War II and now are approaching 

retirement age.

The employment needs for U.S. air carrier pilots are 

not divided equally between the two halves of the 

projection period. (See table 9.) Employment growth 

requirements for the 1968-72 period are projected to be 

considerably below that expected for the second half of 

the decade. These differing growth rates stem from 

several causes. Short-run projections are affected more 

strongly by cyclical influences. Pilot employment increased at an unusually rapid pace during 1966 and 

1967, far above the long-run trends. Thus, the computed 

employment level for 1967, developed through regression analysis, was considerably lower than the actual 

employment level reported by the FAA. Although full 

assessment of the recent spurt in employment is difficult, much of the increase may reflect short-run influences, i.e., increases in training and retraining activity, 

transport demands of the Viet Nam situation, and 

possible pilot stockpiling due to concern over possible 

future shortages. During the 9-month period ending 

March 31, 1968, Civil Aeronautics Board records show

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Table 9. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics resulting from employment growth and from

retirements and deaths, by U.S. air carriers, 1968-77, 1968-72, and 1973-77

Occupation and

type of requirement

Requirements

1968-77 1968-72 1973-77

Number

Percent

of

total

Number

Percent

of

total

Number

Percent

of

total

Total pilots.................................................. 22,800 100 6,500 29 16,300 71

Growth......................................................................... 18,000 100 5,000 28 13,000 72

Retirement and death ............................................... 4,800 100 1,500 31 3,300 69

24,700 100 12,100 49 12,600 51

18,000 100 9,000 50 9,000 50

Retirement and d e a th ............................................... 6,700 100 3,100 46 3,600 54

N O T E : Individual parts m ay n o t add to to ta l due to rounding.

S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics.

that employment increased only 1,400, a possible 

indication that pilot employment growth patterns 

already may be returning to long-run trends. Also, pilot 

productivity is expected to increase more rapidly during 

the first 5-year period, modifying pilot requirements. 

During this period, jet aircraft will continue to replace 

the slower piston and turboprop aircraft and consequently increase pilot productivity. By 1972, most of 

the conversion to jet aircraft will have been completed, 

and pilot productivity increases should slow during the 

1973-77 period. This slowdown is expected to result in a 

more rapid rise in the requirements for pilots during this 

period.

When compared with expected traffic growth, projections of pilot employment rise at a much slower pace, 

approximately 54 percent over the next decade. The 

much greater growth in traffic, unaccompanied by a 

correspondingly large increase in the number of pilots, 

reflects the impact of continuing technological change 

on pilot productivity. Primary among these changes will 

be further shifts in fleet composition. (See table 7.) Not 

only will the smaller capacity piston aircraft be phased 

out during the next decade, but new second and third 

generation jets will be put into service. The increase in 

average aircraft speed resulting from the expansion of 

the subsonic jet fleet (Boeing 747 and DC-10) and the 

introduction of supersonic aircraft will reduce further 

the trip time and increase output per pilot. Pilot 

productivity gains, however, will be moderated by a 

number of offsetting influences. Actual pilot flight

hours, or “stick time,” may decline as a result of 

scheduling difficulties and increased flight preparation 

time. Traffic congestion may lengthen landing and 

takeoff times and modify the effect of the increase in 

average flight speed. Increases in training and retraining 

resulting from the advent of new types of aircraft also 

will increase pilot needs. Furthermore, pilot requirements may be influenced by future shifts in institutional 

factors such as longer vacations or, even more important, 

by negotiated reductions in the pilots’ maximum 

monthly duty hours.

M echanic requirem ents. About 25,000 new airplane 

mechanics will be needed by U.S. air carriers during the 

1967-77 decade. (See table 9.) About three-fourths of 

this increase will result from employment growth. The 

number of mechanics employed by the Nation’s air 

carriers is expected to increase from 52,000 in 1967 to

70,000 in 1977, an increase of 35 percent (table 8). 

Most of the growth will occur in the certificated route 

air carriers, where employment is expected to increase 

by 17,000 to 67,000 in 1977, about equal to the 

employment growth experienced during the past decade. 

The remaining additional workers—about 1,000—will be 

required by the supplemental and commercial operator 

air carriers where mechanic employment will grow to 

about 3,000 by 1977.

Employment growth is projected to be equally 

divided between the two halves of the projection period, 

increasing 9,000 in each period. Replacement needs,

9

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Table 10. Revenue aircraft hours, by type of aircraft, U.S. air carriers,

estimated 1967 and forecast 1972 and 1977

[In millions]

Hours

Percent

change,

1967-77

Aircraft type Estimated Forecast

1967 1972 1977

Total aircraft.................... 5.27 7.20 9.27 + 76

Fixed-wing a ir c r a ft........................... 5.24 7.17 9.23 + 76

J e t............................................... 3.06 6.14 8.18 +167

T u rb o p ro p .............................. 0.87 0.83 1.01 + 16

P iston........................................ 1.31 0.20 0.04 - 97

Helicopters........................................... 0.03 0.03 0.04 + 33

S O U R C E : F A A A via tio n Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, (Federal A v iatio n A d ­

m inistration, January 1 9 6 7 ) tab le 4 , p. 2 2 .

however, will be higher in the second half of the decade. 

From 1968 through 1972, 3,100 workers will be needed 

to replace mechanics who die or retire, whereas replacement requirements will be 3,600 for the later period, 16 

percent higher.

Growth in the employment of mechanics will result 

primarily from two factors. First, the number of aircraft 

operated by air carriers is expected to increase substantially during the next decade. In addition flight hours are 

expected to rise about 76 percent above the 1967 level. 

(See table 10.) The maintenance of this larger, more 

extensively utilized aircraft fleet will require additional 

mechanics. Second, aircraft are becoming larger and 

more complex. The increased sophistication of aircraft 

control, guidance, and communications systems will add 

to maintenance requirements.

Some technological developments, on the other hand, 

will tend to moderate employment growth. The continued shift toward jet-powered aircraft will reduce 

engine maintenance requirements. Other innovations 

ranging from the use of complex monitoring and testing 

systems to the development of improved hand tools will 

increase mechanic productivity and moderate the rate of 

employment growth over the coming decade.

10

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Chapter 11. General Aviation11

General aviation is a large and rapidly expanding part 

of the Nation’s air transportation system. In 1967, 

general aviation accounted for nearly 97 percent of all 

the aircraft operated in the civil aviation industry. Of the 

106,337 aircraft inventoried by FAA, 104,000 were in 

general aviation. (See table 11.)

General aviation has grown substantially in recent 

years. As speed, safety, and comfort have increased, 

aircraft have gained in acceptance as a mode of 

transportation. Population growth, rising personal and 

business incomes, and increased leisure time have 

spurred the expansion in all types of general aviation 

flying. Business flying has increased as more and more 

companies have discovered the convenience and competitive advantages of operating their own aircraft. 

Air taxi service has increased in response to the need for 

feeder service to major air terminals and for air 

transportation to remote locations not serviced by air 

carriers. In recent years, modern agriculture and industry 

increasingly have required additional aircraft for activities such as pesticide spraying, pipeline patrolling, and 

certain construction operations. To meet these and 

similar needs, general aviation has become one of the 

most rapidly expanding sectors.

Changes in the size of the general aviation aircraft 

fleet and the increase in the number of hours flown in 

general aviation provide an indication of industry 

growth. According to FAA, the fleet grew by more than

38,700 aircraft between 1958 and 1967, an increase of 

about 60 percent. (See table 11.) Of the various types of 

aircraft, growth has been most rapid for the larger 

multiengine aircraft. In 1958, multiengine aircraft 

accounted for 8 percent of the general aviation fleet, but 

their share had grown to 12 percent by 1967.

The total hours flown in general aviation have 

increased even faster than the number of aircraft. 

Although only 12.6 million hours were flown by general 

aviation aircraft in 1958, flight hours had increased to an 

alltime high of 22.2 million by 1967, an increase of 76 

percent over the decade. (See table 12.)

In terms of number of aircraft, personal use flying 

makes up the largest part of general aviation; this 

activity accounted for 54 percent of the 104,000 general 

aviation aircraft in 1967. (See table 13.) Among nonpersonal uses, business flying accounted for 22 percent 

of the general aviation fleet, followed by commercial 

flying, 14 percent; instructional flying, 8 percent; and 

other flying, 2 percent. Although representing less than 

one-half of the aircraft fleet, nonpersonal flying accounted for slightly over three-fourths of all the hours 

flown in general aviation. Personal use flying accounted 

for only 23 percent of hours flown in 1967, whereas 

business flying accounted for 30 percent. Other important sectors in terms of hours flown were commercial 

and, instructional flying, which accounted for 18 and 28 

percent, respectively, of the total. The larger proportion 

of hours flown relative to the number of aircraft 

reported for nonpersonal uses reflects the much higher 

rates of aircraft utilization in the nonpersonal flying 

sectors.

The most rapid increase in hours flown between 1958 

and 1967 occurred in instructional flying. Hours flown 

in instructional flying increased 191 percent. Other 

sectors recording rapid growth in hours flown during this 

period were personal use flying (119 percent) and 

commercial flying (66 percent).

Outlook

According to FAA, the general aviation fleet will 

continue to expand rapidly during the coming decade, 

stimulated by the same factors that spurred activity 

during the past decade. By 1977, the number of such 

aircraft is forecast to increase to 180,000, or 73 percent 

above the 1967 level. (See table 14.)

Piston aircraft are expected to account for most of 

the increase in the number of general aviation aircraft. 

Single-engine piston aircraft are forecast to grow by 

55,600, or 63 percent between 1967 and 1977. During 

the same time period, multi-engine piston aircraft will 

approximately double in number and increase from

12,500 to 23,000. Turbine powered aircraft, both 

turbojet and turboprop, are expected to show the 

sharpest rate of growth by jumping froin fewer than

1,000 in 1967 to 8,000 by 1977. Most of the turbine 

powered aircraft will be used in business and air taxi 

operations, where their relatively lower maintenance 

costs and higher speeds make them especially attractive.

The number of hours flown by general aviation 

aircraft also is forecast by FAA to rise sharply between 

1967 and 1977. (See table 12.) Total aircraft hours will

11 General aviation covers the following categories as identified by the Federal Aviation Administration: (1) business flying,

(2) commercial flying (air taxi, aerial applications and industrial-special use), (3) instructional flying, (4) personal-use flying,

and (5) other flying. Also included in this category are the

certified and noncertified repair stations that service general

aviation aircraft.

11

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Table 1 1 . Active general aviation aircraft, by type of aircraft, 1958-67, and forecast 1972 and 1977

Year, as of January 1

Number of

active

aircraft

Aircraft type

Piston

Turbine Rotorcraft Other

Single-engine Multiengine

1958 .................................... 65,289 59,649 5,036 (1) 344 260

1959 .................................... 67,839 61,692 5,416 (1) 439 292

1960 .................................... 68,727 61,844 5,957 77 525 324

1 9 6 1 .................................... 76,549 68,301 7,129 114 634 371

1962 . . . ............................ 80,632 71,010 8,211 186 798 427

1963 .................................... 84,121 73,456 8,978 213 967 507

1964 .................................... 85,088 73,626 9,458 245 1,171 588

1965 .................................... 88,742 76,136 10,346 306 1,306 648

1966 .................................... 95,442 81,134 11,422 574 1,503 809

1967 .................................... 104,000 88,000 12,500 950 1,700 850

1972 .................................... 144,000 118,300 17,800 4,100 2,650 1,150

1977 .................................... 180,000 143,600 23,000 8,000 4,000 1,400

2 / Not available.

SOURCE: FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, Federal Aviation Administration, 1958-67 edition. Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77,(Federal Aviation Administration, January 1967).

grow by nearly three-fifths; the increase will be from 

22.2 million in 1967 to 35.0 million by 1977. By 1977, 

the nonpersonal uses of aircraft still will make up almost 

three-fourths of all the hours flown in general aviation. 

Business flying will continue to account for the largest 

share; its increase is expected to be nearly 60 percent, 

from 6.6 to 10.4 million hours between 1967 and 1977. 

A growing number of business firms, especially those 

that have operations in more than one geographic 

location, are expected to buy or lease aircraft to provide 

more direct travel for company executives. Businessowned aircraft also are being used more widely to 

transport sales staffs and customers, and to provide a 

responsive technical service staff for product installation 

and maintenance.

Flight hours also are expected to grow substantially 

in both commercial (3.9 to 7.2 million) and instructional 

(6.3 to 7.4 million) flying between 1967 and 1977. Most 

of the increase in commercial flying will result from the 

growing demand for air taxi services. From 1957 to 

1967, the number of certificated air taxi operators has 

risen steadily. Future growth will result primarily from 

the expansion of air taxi service to communities too 

small to warrant regular air carrier service, and from the 

demand for air taxi service to connect major air terminals with downtown areas and suburban communities.

Several major air carriers already are including air taxi 

fares in ticketing procedures, a practice that will be 

expanded further in the 1967-77 decade.

Flight hours in personal use flying are forecast to 

grow by nearly 90 percent during 1967-77. (See table 

12.) A population with more leisure time and higher 

incomes, together with the public’s growing awareness of 

the availability and convenience of flying, will stimulate 

this rapid expansion.

Pilot employment trends

Historical data on the number of pilots have been 

limited, for the most part, to a count of active pilot 

certificates. According to FAA, the number of persons 

holding commercial certificates—the rating held by most 

pilots employed in general aviation—more than doubled 

between 1957 and 1967 and increased from 71,000 to

150.000. 12 A large share of this growth occurred during 

the 1963-67 period, when the number of pilots holding 

commercial certificates rose sharply from 96,000 to

150.000. This data, however, represent the total pilot

12 FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, 1966 Edition,

(Federal Aviation Administration), p. 77. Unpublished data for

1967 were obtained from FAA.

12

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Table 12. Estimated hours flown in general aviation, by type of flying, 1950-67and FY 1972 and 1977

[Thousands of hours]

Type of flying

Year Total

hours

Business Commercial I nstructional Personal use Other

Hours Percent Hours Percent Hours Percent Hours Percent Hours Percent

1950 ........................ 9,650 2,750 28 1,500 16 3,000 31 2,300 24 100 1

1951 ........................ 8,451 2,950 35 1,584 19 1,902 23 1,880 22 135 1

1952 ........................ 8,186 3,124 38 1,727 21 1,503 18 1,629 20 203 3

1953 ........................ 8,527 3,626 42 1,649 19 1,248 15 1,846 22 158 2

1954 ........................ 8,963 3,875 43 1,829 20 1,292 15 1,920 22 47 u/>

1955 ........................ 9,500 4,300 45 1,950 21 1,275 13 1,975 21 — —

1956 ........................ 10,200 4,600 45 2,000 20 1,500 15 2,100 20 — —

1957 ........................ 10,938 4,864 45 2,013 18 1,864 17 2,109 19 88 1

1958 ........................ 12,579 5,699 45 2,365 19 2,150 17 2,365 19 — —

1959 ........................ 12,903 5,699 44 2,365 18 2,043 16 2,796 22 — —

1960 ........................ 13,121 5,699 44 2,365 18 1,828 14 3,172 24 57 (i/)

1961 ........................ 13,602 5,699 42 2,634 19 1,796 13 3,398 25 75 1

1962 ........................ 14,500 5,431 38 3,051 21 2,385 16 3,489 24 144 1

1963 ........................ 15,106 5,740 38 3,172 21 2,417 16 3,626 24 151 1

1964 ........................ 15,738 5,823 37 3,305 21 2,675 17 3,777 24 158 1

1965 ........................ 16,733 5,857 35 3,348 20 3,346 20 4,016 24 166 1

1966 ........................ 21,023 7,057 33 3,555 17 5,674 27 4,540 22 197 1

1967 ........................ 22,153 6,578 30 3,918 18 6,262 28 5,173 23 222 1

1972 ........................ 27,200 8,400 31 5,700 21 5,600 21 7,300 27 200 1

1977 ........................ 35,000 10,400 30 7,200 21 7,400 21 9,700 28 300 1

-1 /Less than 0.05 percent.

SOURCE 1950-66: FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation (Federal Aviation Administration), 1963 and 1967 Editions, table 5.2 and 5.4. 1967: Unpublished data from the FAA. 1972 and 1977: Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years

1967-77, op. cit., table 8, p. 27.

population, not persons actually employed as pilots in 

general aviation.13

Based on a special tabulation prepared from FAA 

aeromedical records,14 25,000 pilots were employed by

13 The discussion o f historical trends in the number o f pilots

is limited in this section to active certificated pilots. The total

pilot population reflected in the FAA data includes many

persons who fly solely for recreation, and others who are

employed primarily in other occupations, but who fly occasionally for business reasons or as a secondary job. Although

recognizing that many thousands o f additional pilots may be

employed on a casual part-time basis, for the purpose o f this

study, the Bureau’s statisticians decided that meaningful future

pilot training requirements would best be determined if current

and projected employment estimates were limited to those

persons who were employed primarily as professional pilots.

Lack o f historical data on professionally-employed pilots in

general aviation prevented development o f estimates for years

prior to 1967.

14 For a complete discussion o f the source and methods

followed in preparing pilot employment estimates, see p. 19.

general aviation in 1967. Almost one-half of these pilots 

(11,900) were reportedly in executive transportation 

(table 15). Air taxi operations accounted for the second 

largest concentration of pilots (6,200), followed by 

instructional flying (3,300). The remaining pilots were 

divided among the other general aviation activities;

1,500 were reported in aerial application, 1,500 in 

industrial/special, and 500 in other uses.

Mechanic employment trends

Historical data on general aviation mechanic employment have been limited in the past to FAA data 

reporting the number of persons holding mechanic 

certificates. The number of certificated mechanics has 

grown substantially in the past decade; the increase was 

from 103,000 in 1957 to over 147,000 in 1967.15 These

15 FAA Statistical Handbook o f Aviation, 1966 Edition, op.

cit., p. 77. Unpublished data for 1967 were obtained from FAA.

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data, however, include many persons ndt employed as 

mechanics in general aviation and exclude others.16

Based on certificated repair station inspection records 

and FAA regional office estimates,17 mechanic employment in general aviation was estimated at about 50,000 

in 1967. (See table 16.) Three-fifths (32,600) of these 

mechanics were employed at certificated repair stations. 

The remainder, about 18,000, were estimated to be 

employed by the usually smaller, noncertificated repair 

stations. At certificated repair stations, noncertificated 

mechanics were estimated to number about 24,000; 

certificated mechanics, 4,800; and certificated repairmen, 3,600.

Projected pilot and mechanic requirements

As in the air carrier industry, the manpower requirements presented in this section reflect both those 

resulting from expansion in the general aviation sector 

and those resulting from the need to replace persons 

who die or retire. The growth projections were made 

within the framework of general aviation flight activity 

and fleet forecasts developed by FAA in its 1967 report, 

A viation F orecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77.

For a complete discussion of the methods used in 

developing the employment projections and estimating 

replacement requirements, see Part II of this bulletin.

P ilo t requirem ents. About 36,000 new pilots will be 

required in general aviation from 1968 through 1977 

because of occupational growth and the need to replace 

pilots who will retire or die. (See table 17.) Requirements resulting from employment growth will account 

for nearly 85 percent of all new pilot needs. Pilot 

employment is projected to more than double between 

1967 and 1977; the increase is expected to be from an 

estimated 25,000 to about 56,000. (See table 18.)

More than 80 percent of the new pilot requirements 

will be concentrated in two flying activities—executive 

transportation and air taxi operations. In the executive 

transportation sector alone, pilot requirements will 

exceed 19,000 over the 1967-77 decade. (See table 17.)

16 The discussion o f historical trends in the number o f

mechanics is limited in this section to certificated mechanics.

Mechanics employed by air carriers are included in FAA data as

are persons who hold an active mechanic rating but are

employed in another occupation. Excluded from the FAA data

are a large number o f mechanics without active certificates. Lack

o f historical data on mechanics employed in general aviation

prevented development o f estimates for the years prior to 1967.

17 For a complete discussion o f the sources and procedures

followed in estimating mechanic employment, see p. 34.

Table 13. Estimated distribution of general aviation aircraft,

by type of flying, 1967

Type of flying Percent distribution

T o t a l ................................................................... 100

Personal u s e .............................................................................. 54

B u s in e s s ...................................................................................... 22

C o m m e r c ia l............................................................................... 14

In s tru c tio n a l............................................................................... 8

Other f ly in g .......................................................................... 2

S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics.

Employment growth will account for most of these 

requirements as the number of pilots engaged in executive flying is projected to increase from nearly 12,000 to 

about 28,000. An additional 2,700 pilots will be needed 

in executive flying as replacements for those who retire 

or die during the decade. In air taxi flying, slightly over

11,000 new pilots will be required, the sharpest rate of 

increase for any flying activity. By 1977, the number of 

pilots engaged in this activity will grow by one and a half 

times its 1967 level—from 6,200 to 15,800. An additional 1,500 pilots will be required by air-taixi flying as 

replacements.

Of the remaining pilot requirements in general aviation, nearly two-thirds (3,700) will be in instructional 

flying. Employment needs will nearly double in this 

sector, growing from 3,300 in 1967 to 6,300 in 1977. 

Another 700 pilots will be needed as replacements for 

those pilots who retire or die during this period. Smaller 

numbers of new pilots will be required in the other types 

of general aviation flying—800 in industrial/special; 900 

in aerial application; and 400 in other types of flying.

Pilot growth requirements will be somewhat higher 

during the second half of the 1967-77 decade. Employment requirements are projected to increase by 16,600 

during the second half of the decade, compared with 

14,100 during the first half; and replacement needs will

Table 14. Active general aviation aircraft, by type of aircraft,

estimated 1967 and forecast 1972 and 1977

Type of aircraft

Aircraft

Estimated

1967

Forecast Percent

increase,

1972 1977 1967-77

T o t a l ................................... 104,000 144,000 180,000 73

Piston...................................................... 100,500 136,100 166,600 66

Single-engine............................. 88,000 118,300 143,600 63

M u ltien g in e............................. 12,500 17,800 23,000 84

Turbine ................................................ 950 4,100 8,000 742

R o to rcra ft............................................. 1,700 2,650 4,000 135

O th e r...................................................... 850 1,150 1,400 65

S O U R C E : Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. eft., table 6 , p. 2 5.

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Table 15. Estimated employment of pilots in general aviation,

by type of flying, 1967

Type of flying

Estimated

1967

employment

Percent

distribution

T o t a l ............................................................ 25,000 100.0

Executive transportation........................................... 11,900 47.5

A ir ta x i..................................................... 6,200 24.9

Aerial ap p licatio n ......................................................... 1,500 6.2

Industrial/sp ecial........................................................ 1,500 6.1

Instructional.................................................................. 3,300 13.3

Other .................................................................. 500 2.0

N O T E : Individual item s m ay not add to to ta l due to rounding. Percents based on

unrounded num bers.

S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics. Estim ates based on data obtained fro m F A A

A erom edical Records.

average about 700 a year in the 1973-77 period, 

compared with nearly 400 a year in the 1968-72 period.

The growth in pilot employment throughout the 

various sectors of general aviation will be generated by 

the rapid rise in the demand for general aviation services 

discussed earlier. Although numerous technological 

advances are expected in aircraft design and in operating 

systems, these changes are not expected to have a major 

impact on the manpower requirements for pilots in 

general aviation.

M echanic requirem ents. An estimated 50,300 new 

mechanics will be needed in general aviation from 1967 

through 1977, an average of nearly 5,000 each year. 

Employment needs are expected to nearly double over 

the 1967-77 decade; the expected increase will be from

50,400 to 92,800. (See table 18.) Six out of every seven 

new job openings will result from employment expansion. The remaining requirements (7,800) will result 

from the need to replace workers who will die or retire.

Employment of mechanics will grow to about 72,000 

by 1972, an increase of nearly 22,000, compared with a 

projected increase of 20,700 during the second 5-year 

period. Replacement needs also will be greater during 

the second 5-year period—4,500 compared with 3,300.

A number of factors will spur the growth of mechanic 

employment. As indicated earlier, the general aviation 

fleet is expected to expand from 104,000 in 1967 to

144,000 by 1972 and 180,000 by 1977, an increase of 

73 percent for the decade. Perhaps even more important 

in determining mechanic requirements is the sharp 

increase in flight hours forecast by the FAA. Not only is 

the general aviation fleet and its utilization increasing, 

but aircraft also are becoming more complex as new

Table 16. Estimated mechanics employed in general aviation,

by type of repair station, 1367

Type of repair station

Estimated 1967

employment

Total mechanics............................................................................ 50,400

Certificated repair s ta tio n ............................................................................ 32,600

Certificated m echanics...................................................................... 4,800

Certificated re p airm en ...................................................................... 3,600

Noncertificated repair station ...................................................... 17,800

N O T E : Individual parts m ay n o t add to totals due to rounding.

S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics. Estim ates based on unpublished F A A

records.

Table 17. Projected requirements for general aviation pilots and mechanics resulting from

employment growth and from retirements and deaths, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77

Requirements

Occupation 1968-77 1968-72 1973-77

Total Growth Deaths and

retirements Total Growth Deaths and

retirements Total Growth Deaths and

retirements

Pilots...................................... 36,200 30,700 5,500 16,400 14,100 2,200 19,900 16,600 3,300

Executive flying . . . . 19,300 16,500 2,700 8,200 7,200 1,100 11,000 9,400 1,600

Air ta x i....................... 11,100 9,600 1,500 5,200 4,600 600 6,000 5,000 900

Aerial application . . . 900 700 300 500 400 100 400 300 100

Industrial/special. . . . 800 600 200 400 300 100 400 300 100

Instructional............... 3,700 3,000 700 1,900 1,600 300 1,800 1,400 400

Other .......................... 400 300 100 200 200 ( 1/ ) 200 200 <l/>

Mechanics............................. 50,300 42,400 7,800 25,100 21,800 3,300 25,200 20,700 4,500

1/Less than 50.

N O TE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 18. Employment of pilots and mechanics in general aviation, estimated 1967 and

projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977

Occupation Estimated 1967

employment

Projected requirements Percentage

increase

1972 1977 1967-77

Pilots............................................................................................................. 25,000 39,200 55,700 123

Executive transportation ................................................................ 11,900 19,100 28,400 139

Air ta x i............................................................................................. 6,200 10,800 15,800 155

Aerial application............................................................................ 1,500 1,900 2,200 47

1 ndustrial/special............................................................................ 1,500 1,800 2,100 40

Instructional..................................................................................... 3,300 4,900 6,300 91

Other ................................................................................................. 500 700 800 60

Mechanics.................................................................................................... 50,400 72,100 92,800 84

N O TE: Individual items may not add to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

equipment and instrumentation are being developed 

continually, creating additional maintenance demands. 

However, other influences will offset the increased 

maintenance created by the growing complexity of 

general aviation aircraft. New and better maintenance 

equipment and procedures will increase mechanic productivity. The shift towards jet powered aircraft, which 

have fewer engine maintenance requirements, also will

tend to moderate the growth in requirements for certain 

mechanic specialties. These technological developments 

will offset one another in the aggregate. In the last 

analysis, the rapid expansion expected in the size of the 

fleet and in hours flown will generate a substantial 

increase in maintenance requirements, and consequantly, 

mechanic employment will rise sharply during the 

1967-77 decade.

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Chapter III. Government

Presented in this section is a discussion of the growth 

of and outlook for Federal, State, and local government 

flying activities, excluding all activities of the U.S. 

Department of Defense, civilian and military.18

Pilot employment trends

Nearly 2,000 pilots were estimated to be employed in 

nonmilitary activities by Federal, State, and local government agencies in 1967. (See table 19.) The Federal 

Government accounted for almost one-half (1,200) of all 

pilots employed by all levels of government. Most were 

employed by the Federal Aviation Administration and 

are involved in activities such as aircraft, airway, and 

flight procedure testing, and in pilot proficiency testing. 

Other Federal agencies employing significant numbers of 

pilots were the Departments of Agriculture, Justice, and 

Interior. These agencies utilize pilots for border patrolling, forest and game conservation activities, and experimental work.

State and local governments were estimated to 

employ 800 pilots in 1967. Many were engaged in State 

and local police patrolling activities; others were 

employed in State forestry and natural resource agencies 

engaged in conservation programs. A growing number 

are being utilized for student instruction in public 

universities and colleges.

In the Federal Government, pilot employment in 

nondefense activities has declined slightly since 1957. 

Although the number of FAA pilots engaged in testing 

airway systems has declined, the decrease was offset, in 

part, by an increase in the number of pilots engaged in 

pilot and flight checkout. Employment in the other 

Federal agencies grew slightly over the decade but has 

remained relatively stable during the past few years. No 

historical data on pilot employment in State and local 

governments are available.

18 Excluded from the scope o f this study are about 500

civilian pilots employed by the U.S. Department o f Defense.

19 Excluded from the scope o f this study are 33,000 civilians

employed as airplane mechanics by the U.S. Department o f

Defense.

20 Estimates o f the number o f mechanics employed by the

Federal Government from 1958-67 were based on data from the

U.S. Civil Service Commission and the Federal Aviation Administration.

21 Reductions in programs, such as the monitoring o f air

carrier flights, are possible during the decade. If such program

reductions are made, the number o f pilots employed by the

Federal Government actually may decline.

Mechanic and employment trends

In 1967, an estimated 1,100 mechanics were 

employed by government agencies in nondefense activities.19 (See table 19.) Nearly all were employed by the 

Federal Government, principally by the Federal Aviation 

Administration. Fewer than 100 mechanics were estimated to be employed by State and local government 

agencies. Because of the small aircraft fleet operated by 

State and local governments, most maintenance work is 

contracted out to privately-operated repair stations.

Mechanics working for Federal agencies are engaged 

largely in the maintenance of agency operated aircraft. 

In 1958, about 1,200 were employed by Federal nondefense agencies. Employment increased during the early 

1960’s to about 1,700 in 1962. By 1967, however, the 

number of mechanics dropped to 1,100, slightly below 

the 1958 level.20

Projected pilot and mechanic requirements

The following section discusses future pilot and 

mechanic manpower requirements in government. The 

manpower requirements presented reflect both those 

resulting from expansion and those resulting from the 

need to replace persons who die or retire.

For a complete discussion of the methods used in 

developing employment projections and estimating 

replacement requirements, see pages 33 and 39 of this 

report.

P ilo t requirem ents. The number of pilots employed 

by government is expected to grow by nearly 1,000 

between 1967 and 1977 to a total of 2,900. (See table 

19.) In addition to growth requirements, 300 pilots will 

be needed to replace those who will die or retire. (See 

table 20.) The growth in employment requirements will 

be somewhat greater in the Federal Government (500) 

than in State and local government agencies (400). In 

Federal agencies, the increase in requirements will result 

from the further expansion of flight procedure testing 

and pilot checkout activities conducted by the FAA. 

The growth in flight activity, both commercial and 

private, will require a larger staff of these specialized 

personnel. The increases may be offset, in part, however, 

by further reductions in frequency of certain inspection 

programs.21 In State and local government agencies, 

further expansion of patrolling activities, especially 

highway and other police patrolling, and the growth of 

flight instruction in public supported schools will 

account for most of the increase in pilot requirements.

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Table 19. Employment of pilots and mechanics in government, by type of government, estimated

1967 and projected employment requirements, 1972 and 1977

Occupation Estimated 1967

employment

Projected requirements Percentage

increase

1972 1977 1967-77

Total pilots............................. ....................................................... 1,980 2,440 2,900 46

Federal............................................................................................................ 1,180 1,440 1,700 44

Federal Aviation Administration................................... ................. 1,020 1,260 1,500 47

Other Federal..................................................................................... 160 180 200 25

State and local................................................................................................. 800 1,000 1,200 50

Total mechanics............................................................................ 1,100 1,100 1,100 —

Federal............................................................................................................. 1,000 1,000 1,000 —

State and local................................................................................................. 100 100 100 —

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Federal em ploym ent estimates for 1967 based on data from the U.S. Civil Service Commission and the Federal Aviation Adm inistration. State and local em ploym ent estimates for 1967 based on special tabulation of FA A

aeromedicai records.

M echanic requirem ents. Little change is expected in 

the number of mechanics employed by government 

during the 1967-77 decade. The size of the fleet 

operated by FAA is expected to decline slightly, but it 

will consist of larger, more complex aircraft. As in the 

past, employment is expected to remain relatively stable, 

and new mechanic requirements will stem primarily

from the need to replace workers who retire or die. 

Estimates are that only 100 new mechanics will be 

required for this purpose. (See table 20.) No change is 

expected in employment of mechanics in State and local 

governments, since maintenance work probably will 

continue to be performed by private repair stations.

Table 20. Projected requirements for pilots and mechanics in government^ resulting from

employment growth and from retirements and deaths, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77

Requirements

Occupation and type

of government

1968-77 1968-72 1973-77

Total Growth Deaths and

retirement Total Growth Deaths and

retirement Total Growth Deaths and

retirement

Total pilots . . . . 1,250 920 330 610 460 150 640 460 180

Federal................................... 720 520 200 350 260 90 370 260 110

State and local........................ 530 400 130 260 200 60 270 200 70

Total mechanics . . 120 — 120 60 - - 60 60 — 60

Federal................................... 100 — 100 50 - - 50 50 — 50

State and local........................ 20 — 20 10 — 10 10 — 10

J/Excludes personnel employed by the U.S. Department of Defense.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Chapter IV. Projection Methods

A number of techniques for estimating future pilot 

and mechanic requirements in civil aviation were tested 

and evaluated before those used in this study were 

selected. The techniques used account for the future 

environment of the industry as reflected by forecasts 

made by the Federal Aviation Administration of 

industry variables such as fleet size and composition, 

revenue passenger miles, and revenue aircraft hours 

flown. These variables express the expected demand for 

the services of civil aviation, and the technological, 

economic, and other factors that will influence the level 

of demand and manpower requirements. The BLS 

projections of manpower requirements, therefore, are 

dependent upon the realization of the FAA forecasts. 

The techniques finally selected are presented in a 

manner that facilitates revision of the manpower projections if the FAA projections are modified. Such a 

presentation is highly desirable, since the rapidly changing environment of civil aviation makes all projections 

subject to constant review.

Pilot and mechanic employment requirements

Several techniques were selected to estimate pilot 

requirements resulting from expected growth in civil 

aviation activity. For U.S. air carriers, two separate 

techniques were used, the results of each verifying the 

other. The first (method A)22 was based on the need for 

pilots, as reflected in FAA’s estimated fleet size and 

composition and the total number of hours these aircraft 

would be flown23, as well as BLS estimates of the 

average number of crews expected per aircraft and the 

number of pilots expected per crew. The second 

(method B) involved the development of a multiple 

regression equation. The variables used in the equation 

were selected after testing and evaluating the relationship of historical data on pilot requirements. The 

equation reflects the impact of total hours flown, the

22 This method is a modification o f the technique used in

Forecasts o f Airline Pilot Requirem ents (Task 67-17, Subtask 3,

Logistics Management Institute, Washington, D.C., May 1967).

23 Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77. op. cit.

24 Base year estimates o f pilot employment in each segment

o f general aviation were taken from aeromedical records maintained at the Civil Aeromedical Institute, Federal Aviation

Administration, Oklahoma G ty, Oklahoma.

25 The base-year level o f mechanic employment in general

aviation was estimated from Annual Inspection Report Records

o f Certificated Repair Stations, and unpublished estimates o f

mechanic employment in noncertificated repair stations maintained by FAA regional offices.

changing technology of civil aviation (complexity, fleet 

composition, utilization of aircraft), and other factors.

For general aviation, only one technique for estimating pilot requirements was selected. The need for pilots 

was estimated by type of flying (executive flying, 

aerial-application, etc.) on the basis of the relationship 

between current pilot employment and the number and 

utilization of different types of aircraft. The pilot/ 

aircraft relationships then were extended to the target 

years and applied to estimates of fleet size in each flying 

activity.24 Projections of the relatively small number of 

pilots employed in government were made on the basis 

of an evaluation of available historical data and consultation with the various government agencies employing 

these workers.

Two techniques were selected to project the growth 

of employment requirements for mechanics in civil 

aviation—one for the growth of requirements in air 

carriers and the other for requirements in general 

aviation. For U.S. air carriers, a multiple regression 

equation was selected from among many tested, which 

considered the total number of hours flown, and speed, 

a variable which reflects the changing composition and 

utilization of the fleet. For general aviation, a ratio 

technique was used that allowed the projection of the 

number of mechanics on the basis of their relationship 

to the current (1967) and expected total number of 

hours flown by general aviation aircraft.25 Because of 

the small numbers of mechanics employed by government, employment estimates and projections for these 

workers were made on the basis of an evaluation of 

available historical data and consultation with the 

various government agencies where they are employed.

U.S. air carrier pilot projection—method A

The first technique used to project employment 

requirements for pilots by air carriers was based on the 

expected size, composition, and utilization of the fleet 

in the projection years. Tables 21 and 22 present a 

step-by-step application of the technique. The historical 

data on pilot employment in U.S. air carriers and the 

projected employment requirements in 1972 and 1977 

using method A are illustrated in chart 3. The data used 

to project pilot employment requirements by method A 

originate from different sources. The FAA provides 

projections of the fleet size, composition, and hours 

flown by type of aircraft in the target years. Other 

factors used in the technique were developed by BLS 

and are explained in detail below.

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Table 21. U.S. air carrier pilot employment requirements projection to 1972 (method A)

Aircraft type Number in

inventory

Total revenue

hours flown

(millions)

Revenue hours

flown by

aircraft

Col. 2 + Col. 1

Average crews

per aircraft

Col. 3-^508

Pilots

per crew

Pilot

employment

Col. 1 x 4 x 5

d ) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2-Engine j e t .................................. 1,252 3.08 2,460 4.84 2.5 15,149

3-Engine jet

4-Engine j e t .................................. 942 3.06 3,248 6.39 3.0 18,058

Supersonic jet

1 and 2 engine turboprop . . . . 353 .74 2,096 4.13 2.0 2,916

4-Engine turboprop...................... 49 .09 1,837 3.62 3.0 532

1 and 2 engine piston.................. 155 .08 516 1.02 2.0 316

4-Engine p is to n ............................ 96 .12 1,250 2.46 3.0 708

H elicopter..................................... 28 .03 1,071 2.11 2.0 118

T o t a l............................ 2,875 37,797

S O U R C E : Num ber in Inventory and Total Revenue Hours F low n—A viatio n Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit., tables

3 and 4, pp. 22 and 23.

Pilots per crew —"Specif ications-U.S. Com mercial Tran spo rts/' A viation Week and Space Technology, V ol. 8 8 , N o. 12 March

18, 1968, p. 204.

Table 22. U.S. air carrier pilot employment requirements projection to 1977 (method A)

Aircraft type Number in

inventory

Total revenue

hours flown

(millions)

Revenue hours

flown by

aircraft

Col. 2 -r Col. 1

Average crews

per aircraft

Col. 3 ^ 4 8 3

Pilots

per crew

Pilot

employment

Col. 1x4x5

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

2- Engine j e t ....................

3- Engine jet

1,746 4.41 2,526 5.23 2.5 22,829

4-Engine j e t .................................. 1,091 3.50 3,208 6.64 3.0 21,733

Supersonic j e t ............................... 86 .27 3,140 6.50 3.0 1,677

1 and 2 engine turboprop . . . . 453 .97 2,141 4.43 2.0 4,014

4-Engine turboprop...................... 35 .04 1,143 2.37 3.0 249

1 and 2 engine piston.................. 26 .05 1,923 3.98 2.0 207

4-Engine p is to n ............................ 33 .04 1,212 2.51 3.0 248

Helicopter..................................... 30 .04 1,333 2.76 2.0 166

T o t a l............................ 3,500 51,123

S O U R C E : Num ber in Inventory and Total Revenue Hours F lo w n —A viatio n Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit., tables

3 and 4, pp. 22 and 23.

Pilots per crew —"Specif ications-U.S. Com mercial Transports," A viatio n Week and Space Technology, V o l. 8 8 , N o. 12. March

18, 1968, p. 20 4.

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EMPLOYMENT (000)

CHART 3

EMPLOYMENT OF PILOTS BY

U.S. ROUTE AIR CARRIERS, 1950-66, AND PROJECTED

EMPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS, 1972 AND 1977

( M E T H O D A )

SOURCE: 1950-60 - EMPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS AND CHANGING OCCUPATIONAL

STRUCTURE IN CIVIL AVIATION, op. cit.

1961 - FACTS AND FIGURES 1967, (AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION OF

AMERICA, WASHINGTON, D.C.).

1962-67 - FACTS AND FIGURES 1968, (AIR TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION OF

AMERICA, WASHINGTON, D.C.).

1972 & 1977 - BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.

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A verage crew s p e r aircraft. The average number of 

crews per aircraft in the projected years (column 4) was 

derived by dividing the expected average revenue hours 

flown per individual aircraft (column 3) by a factor 

representing average annual hours flown per crew. 

Average annual hours flown per crew (508 for 1972 and 

483 for 1977) were developed by extrapolating the 

experience of one large air carrier between 1957 and 

1966. The validity of attributing the experience of one 

air carrier to all air carriers was tested in two ways: First, 

by discussing the reasonableness of the procedure with 

industry officials; and second, through testing the 

projection technique by recreating total air carrier pilot 

employment in a past year using the historical annual 

hours experience of pilots employed by one major air 

carrier, and comparing the results with published pilot 

employment for that year.

Chart 4 shows the average monthly pilot pay hours 

and actual flight hours for a major air carrier between 

1957 and 1966 and BLS projections to 1972 and 1977. 

With the induction of jet aircraft during the 1960’s, the 

difference between pilot pay hours and flight hours 

increased, but at a decreasing rate. In recent years, the 

rate of decline in flight hours has slowed. By 1966, the 

average stood at 48 compared with 68 in 1957, an 

annual average decline of 3.3 percent. Between 1960 and 

1966, however, average flight hours dropped from about 

57 to 48, or an average of 2.6 percent a year. The slow 

change in monthly flight hours anticipated after 1966 

reflects the industry’s expectation that actual flying 

hours per pilot will not continue to decline as rapidly as 

between 1960 and 1966 when the conversion to jet 

aircraft is complete. (Annual average flying hours used in 

the estimating procedure are monthly hours multiplied 

by 12 months.)

Industry officials agreed that the level and changes in 

the level of average monthly flying hours for one major 

carrier were reasonably representative of the industry as 

a whole. Moreover, the test of method A using the 

experience of this air carrier proved valid. Using these 

data, total 1961 pilot employment in the air carriers 

calculated by method A was only 3 percent below the 

published level.

P ilots p er crew. The numbers of pilots per crew used 

in column 5 in tables 21 and 22 are consistent with 

current Federal regulations and, for the projected years, 

the opinions of industry officials for aircraft that will 

become operational between 1967 and 1977. Once these 

variables were determined, pilot projections then were 

computed for each target year by multiplying the

number of aircraft by the average crews per aircraft and 

the number of pilots per crew. Following the procedure 

shown in tables 21 and 22, air carrier (including 

supplemental airlines and commercial operator air carriers) pilot employment was estimated at approximately

37,800 in 1972 and 51,100 in 1977.

U.S. air carrier pilot projection—method B

To project pilot employment requirements by U.S. 

route air carriers, a number of variables were selected 

and regressed separately and in combination against a 

series on historical employment. The purpose of these 

tests was to determine the basic causes of change in the 

employment series. Not only were variables finally 

selected on the basis of the most logical underpinning 

possible, but each variable was tested for statistical 

significance.

To understand better the presentation that follows, a 

number of limitations to the technique should be noted. 

First, the types of series available, although perhaps 

more numerous and of better quality than available for 

the analysis of almost any other occupation, are nonetheless limited. Therefore, the specification of theories 

in equation form made use of proxy variables that best 

reflect influences relevant to the aircraft industry. In 

some cases, variables that contribute significantly to the 

explanation of changes in the level of employment of 

pilots must be either discarded or redefined as proxies 

before they can be accepted on the basis of empirical 

evidence. The use of proxy variables is admittedly crude 

and risky and places the burden of proof squarely on the 

analysts undertaking the research. Second, a great deal 

of multicolinearity (high inter-correlation) exist among 

some of the explanatory variables tested. The rapid 

growth of civil aviation over the last 20 years is 

associated with the rapid growth of other variables 

related to the industry. Therefore, although the correlation between two variables may be high, (logical) 

qualitative analysis would indicate that the actual cause 

and effect relationship between them is rather low, both 

having been influenced by a third variable. Third, the 

development of an equation (theory) explaining changes 

in past employment could not be divorced from consideration of expected future changes in the explanatory 

variables. The use of an equation for projection purposes 

assumes that the environment of the system or model 

generally will continue in the future as it has in the past 

so that the impact of the variable will continue to be 

similar. For air transportation, however, current indications are that this may not be true. A new dimension in 

civil aviation may become important by the 1970’s that

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AVERAGE MONTHLY HOURS

CHART 4

PILOT MONTHLY PAY HOURS AND FLIGHT HOURS,

EXPERIENCE OF A MAJOR U.S. AIR CARRIER,

1957-66, AND BLS PROJECTIONS, 1972 AND 1977

SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.

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Table 23. Data inputs for projecting requirements for U.S. route

air carrier pilots (method B) and mechanics

Year

Revenue aircraft hours

(In thousands)

Speed

(miles flow n -r hours flown)

1953 ............................... 3,327.6 2 00

1954 ............................... 3,365.3 2 09

1955 ............................... 3,759.1 213

1956 ............................... 4,209.7 2 16

1957 ............................... 4,683.1 219

1958 ............................... 4,5 7 1.4 2 24

1959 ............................... 4,7 4 9.4 228

1960 ............................... 4,2 8 1.6 243

1 9 6 1 ...............................

3,845.9 264

1962 ............................... 3 ,736.3 287

1963 ............................... 3 ,785.3 302

1964 ............................... 3 ,947.0 314

1965 ............................... 4,2 5 6.6 333

1966 ............................... 4 ,781.2 335

1967 ............................... 5,2 4 9.3 351

1972 ............................... 7,171.9 3 82

1977 ............................... 9 ,2 3 4.0 388

S O U R C E : 1 9 5 3 -5 4 : H andbook o f A irlin e S tatistics, 1 9 6 3 E d itio n , o p . c it.,

p. 1 2 7 . 1 9 5 5 -6 4 : H a nd b oo k o f A irlin e S tatistics, 1 9 6 5 E d itio n , o p . c it., p. 1 2 9 .

1 9 6 5 -6 6 : A ir C arrier T ra ffic Statistics, (C ivil A ero n au tics B o a rd ), D ecem ber

1 9 6 6 , p. 1. 1 9 6 7 -7 7 : B ureau o f L ab o r S tatistics.

will have an impact on pilot employment not adequately 

accounted for in an equation that explains historical 

changes in employment. The number of new aircraft 

should grow more rapidly than in the past. The 

passenger and freight capacity of aircraft is expected to 

expand, while average airborne speed, influenced 

strongly by the past introduction of jets, will tend to 

increase at a slower rate in the future. In terms of model 

development, these changes may reflect a major modification in the environment. Such a limitation, of course, 

is inherent in all projection models but may be particularly applicable to air carrier operations.

The equation finally selected to project pilot employment by route air carriers was of the linear form y = a 

+ bi Xi + b2 x + b3 x3, where y represents employment 

of pilots, X! revenue hours flown, x2 speed, and x3 time.

y = -22,509 + .005006 + .09187 X2 - .460801

(.0008) (.0292) (.3600)

The basic data used in the multiple regression 

equation are shown in table 23, and the actual and 

computed levels of pilot employment and the projected 

employment requirements are presented in chart 5. 

Table 24 provides additional information on the statistical relationship between the variables selected.

The three variables in the equation “explain” 95 

percent of the variation in employment of pilots over 

the 1953-66 period. Although the number of observations is too small for the Durbin-Watson statistic to 

apply, this statistic computed as a matter of routine was 

1.79, which would indicate that unexplained residuals

on a year-to-year basis for a larger sample could be 

distributed randomly about the line of regression. In 

other words, the Durbin-Watson statistic of 1.79 is not 

inconsistent with a randomly distributed series for a 

larger sample. Finally, the independent variable taken 

together—revenue aircraft hours and average airborne 

speed—are statistically significant at the 95 percent level. 

The time variable is much less significant.

Revenue aircraft hours. The impact of annual revenue 

aircraft hours on the requirement for pilots is quite 

clear. As hours flown increase, the demand for pilots will 

also increase (all else remaining constant). The interaction of total revenue passenger miles and average 

airborne speed are reflected in revenue aircraft hours. As 

the number of miles increase, speed remaining constant, 

hours rise (all else remaining constant), increasing the 

requirements for pilots. Similarly, if speed increases and 

miles flown remain constant, the demand for pilots 

declines (all else remaining constant; for example, the 

fleet mix of aircraft). Therefore, both quantitatively, in 

terms of the equation, and qualitatively, in terms of 

what could be expected empirically, an increase in 

revenue aircraft hours normally will have a positive 

influence on pilot requirements.

Average airborne speed. The second independent 

variable, average airborne speed, is used in the equation 

not as speed per se, which is accounted for in the 

revenue aircraft hours variable, but as a proxy for factors 

such as the changing composition of the fleets, the 

utilization rates of the various types of aircraft, and the 

general complexity of air carrier operations. In other 

words, the variable is an indicator of the type of 

technology and its influence on pilot requirements as it 

affects the nature of air carrier operations: for example, 

the rapid increase in average airborne speed in the late 

1950’s and in the 1960’s (table 23) reflects the

Table 24. Selected results of regression analysis for projecting

employment requirements for pilots in U.S. route air carriers (method B)

I ndependent variable

Projected

pilot

employment

(1977)

Variables

statistically

significant

(t-value)

p = .05

Standard

error of

estimate

r 2

Durbin-Watson

(based on 14

years of data)

A 1 / ..................................... 45,293 i / A 2,911 0.46 0.21

B ? / ........................................ 26,419 2 /3 2,315 .66 .84

C ?/ ..................................... 31,888 3 / c 1,964 .75 .88

A l / , B 2 / ............................. 47,047 V A , 2 /0 1,014 .94 1.46

A 1 / , C 3 / ........................... 45,825 1 /A , 3 /c 1,326 .90 .89

A 1 / , b ? / . c 3 / .................. 47,834 1 /A ,2 /B 986 .95 1.79

1 / a = Revenue a ircraft hours.

2 / b = Average airborne speed.

2 / c = T im e.

S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics.

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EMPLOYMENT (000)

CHART 5

EMPLOYMENT OF PILOTS IN

U.S. ROUTE AIR CARRIERS, ACTUAL 1953-66, AND

ESTIMATED 1953-66, 1972, AND 1977

(METHOD B)

_____ Xx = REVENUE AIRCRAFT HOURS

-------- ACTUAL X2 = AVERAGE AIRBORNE SPEED

CALCULATED X3 = TIME

y = -22,509 + .005006 X* + .091857 X2 - .460801 X3

(.0008) (.0292) (.3600)

1953 55 57 59 61 63 65 1977

SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.

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continuing introduction of jet aircraft into the fleet and, 

theoretically, should have resulted in a reduction of pilot 

requirements (all else remaining constant). However, not 

only did jet aircraft generally require more pilots and 

crews per aircraft during this period (more complex 

technology and higher utilization), but the preparation 

time for pilots in relation to actual flying time also 

increased. (See chart 4.) This increase had a positive 

impact on requirements for pilots. In short, the average 

airborne speed in the late 1950’s and 1960’s serves as a 

proxy for the impact of the changing technology and 

environment of air carrier operations during this period. 

BLS estimates, derived from FAA forecasts, show that 

the average airborne speed of aircraft will increase at a 

much slower pace through 1977. According to FAA,26 

the substitution of jet for propeller-driven craft will be 

completed in the early 1970’s. Thus, the impact of jet 

aircraft on pilot requirements will not be as important a 

factor through most of the 1970’s as during the late 

1950’s and 1960’s. Therefore, the effect of the expected 

slowdown in the growth of the speed variable on pilot 

requirements aptly simulates what should be expected 

over the projection period as the technology and 

environment of air carrier operations changes.

Admittedly, average airborne speed is a crude factor 

to measure the net impact of all the complex and diverse 

factors that affect requirements for pilots. However, 

data were limited, and attempts to develop variables 

more directly representing the influence of factors such 

as the mix of aircraft were not successful. Test equations 

became extremely complex and unwieldy, and the 

quality of the data inputs became questionable, notwithstanding the practical problem of adequately projecting 

these variables before an estimate of pilot employment 

in the target year could be developed.

Time. Time as an independent variable in the method 

B equation measures the net impact of the changing 

relationship among revenue aircraft hours, the proxy 

variable, and pilot employment during the 1953-66 

period. It may, for example, be measuring a general 

increase in the efficiency of air carrier operations over 

the period caused by factors such as improved scheduling of flights, improved aid to pilot flight preparation, 

arid economies of scale. Time in the equation (with 

other influences being held constant) has a negative 

influence On requirements for pilots. If revenue aircraft 

hours and speed were unchanged from one year to the

26Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit., table 3,

p. 22.

Table 25. Selected results of regression analysis for projecting

employment requirements for mechanics in U.S. route air carriers

1 independent variable

Projected

mechanic

employment

(1977)

Variables

statistically

significant

(t-value)

p = .05

Standard

error of

estimate

R2

Durbin-Watson

(based on 14

years of data)

a 1 / ..................................... 61,948 4,657 0.26 0.22

B2 / ..................................... 46,801 2 /b 2,326 .81 1.09

C3/ ..................................... 54,088 3/c 2,126 .85 1.03

A 1 / B 2 / ........................... 64,779

62,811

65,844

1 /A ,2 /B 1,497 .93 1.72

A 1/ C 3 / ........................... 3/C 1,993 .88 1.02

A ! /, b2 /,c 3 / ................. ! / a , 2 /b 1,474 .94 2.02

V A = Revenue aircraft hours.

2 / b = Average airborne speed.

3 /C - T im e.

S O U R C E : B ureau'of Labor Statistics.

next, about 460 fewer pilots would be needed to 

maintain the level of air carrier operations. The magnitude of the impact of the time variable appears 

reasonable.

The 1977 U.S. route air carrier pilot employment 

projection developed through method B is 47,800. (See 

chart 5.) Supplemental airline and commercial operators 

pilot employment in 1977, not covered by this technique, is estimated at about 3,000; this increase brings 

the total U.S. air carrier pilot projection to nearly

51,000. This estimate is nearly identical to the estimate 

derived through method A. (See table 22.)

U.S. air carrier mechanic projection method

A number of variables were selected and regressed 

separately and in combination against mechanic employment in U.S. route air carriers for the period 1953-66. 

All variables were analyzed before the explanatory 

equation was selected and used to project mechanic 

employment requirements.

The combination of variables best explaining 

mechanic employment in U.S. route air carriers over the 

1953-66 period was revenue aircraft hours, average 

airborne speed, and time. The explanatory variables and 

the form of the equation were the same as those selected 

for projecting pilot employment (page 24) and are as 

follows:

y = -16,158 + .004739 X! + .138728 X2 - .623520 X3 

(.0013) (.0437) (.5383)

The basic data used in the equation are shown in 

table 23, and the actual and computed levels of 

mechanic employment and the projected requirements 

are presented in chart 6. Table 25 provides additional 

information on the statistical relationships among the 

variables selected. In summary, the three independent 

variables together explain about 94 percent of the

26

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EMPLOYMENT (000)

CHART 6

EMPLOYMENT OF MECHANICS IN

U.S. ROUTE AIR CARRIERS, ACTUAL 1953-66,

AND ESTIMATED 1953-66, 1972, AND 1977

ACTUAL

CALCULATED

y = -16,158 + .004739 Xx +

(.0013)

Xx = REVENUE AIRCRAFT HOURS

X2 = AVERAGE AIRBORNE SPEED

X3 = TIME

.138728 X2 - .623520 X3

(.0437) (.5383)

65

65,800

55

45

35

25

1953 55

_l_____ l_

57 59

i i i

61 63 65

SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.

58,400

___I________________ I

1972 1977

27

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variation in mechanic employment between 1953 and 

1966. The unexplained residuals are not inconsistent 

with being distributed randomly. Both hours and speed 

are statistically significant in the equation; time is much 

less so. Based on the information available, a final 

projection for mechanics of 67,000 for 1977 and 58,500 

for 1972 seems reasonable. These projected requirements levels are somewhat above the computed levels 

but well within the possible range of error in the 

computed projection. (See table 25.) This upward 

adjustment was made to reflect the anticipated ratio of 

mechanics to aircraft. (See discussion, page —)

In addition to mechanics employed by certificated 

route air carriers, a relatively small number of mechanics 

are employed by supplemental and commercial operators. The number of mechanics employed by these 

carriers is estimated at about 2,500 in 1972 and 3,000 in 

1977; the total U.S. air carrier mechanic employment 

projections are 61,000 for 1972 and 70,000 for 1977.

Revenue aircraft hours. Annual revenue aircraft hours 

is a very important determinant of the requirements for 

mechanics. Given fleet size and mix, the demand for 

mechanics rises as revenue aircraft hours increase.

Average airborne speed. Speed, in the equation 

explaining mechanic employment, functions in much the 

same manner as in the equation explaining pilot employment. It is a proxy for the changing mix and utilization 

of aircraft and the level of technology embodied in the 

aircraft. In addition, the general efficiency of the process 

of providing fleet maintenance is also reflected by the 

speed value in the equation. The problems involved in 

performing multiple regression analysis for the air carrier 

industry and the limitations of proxy variables were 

discussed earlier. (See pp. 22 and 24.)

Time. Time as an independent variable in the equation explains the net impact of the changing relationship 

between revenue aircraft hours, the proxy variable 

speed, and mechanic employment during the 1953-66 

period. Moreover, time may be measuring a long-term 

improvement in the reliability of aircraft equipment and 

in the efficiency of aircraft maintenance and repair 

services. According to the results of the equation, if 

revenue aircraft hours and speed were unchanged from 1 

year to the next, about 624 fewer mechanics would be 

needed to maintain the fleet in the second year. Similar 

to the impact of time in the equation for projecting pilot 

requirements, the magnitude of the impact appears 

reasonable in this equation.

Table 26. Ratio of mechanics to aircraft, U.S. route air carriers, 1953-67

Year Mechanics Aircraft

Ratio of

mechanics to

aircraft

1953 ................................................................... 27,400 1,421 19.3

1954 ......................................................... 26,100 1.446 18.0

1955 ................................................................... 30,400 1,480 20.5

1956 ......................................................................... 32.700 1,723 19.0

1957 ......................................................................... 32,900 1,835 17.9

1958 ......................................................................... 30,800 1,895 16.3

1959 ......................................................................... 32,800 1,850 17.7

1960 ......................................................................... 34,500 1,867 18.5

1 9 6 1 ......................................................................... 34,065 1,877 18.1

1962 ......................................................................... 34,925 1,831 19.1

1963 ......................................................................... 34,453 1,832 18.8

1964 ......................................................................... 39,360 1,863 21.1

1965 ......................................................................... 41,667 1,896 22.0

1966 ......................................................................... 45,327 2,027 22.4

1967 ......................................................................... 50,016 2,188 22.9

S O U R C E : 1 9 5 3 -6 0 : E m p loym en t Requirem ents and Changing O ccupational

S tructure in C ivil A v ia tio n , op . c it., pp. 18 and 2 1 . 1 9 6 1 -6 6 : F A A S tatistical Handb ook o f A via tion , op. c it.f 1 9 6 2 -6 7 E ditions. 1 9 6 7 : Facts and Figures, 1968, op. cit.,

pp. 3 8 and 4 0 .

To verify the reasonableness of the above mechanic 

projections, mechanic to aircraft ratios were computed 

for the period 1953-66 and compared with the corresponding ratio implied by the 1977 projections. (See 

table 26.) Based on the FAA forecasts of 3,500 aircraft 

in the fleet in 1977,27 the projection of 70,000 

mechanics in 1977 results in a ratio of 20 mechanics to 

each aircraft—a ratio somewhat higher than in most of 

the 1953-66 period but somewhat below the level in the 

mid-1960’s. The ratios appeared reasonable for several 

reasons. First, the number of aircraft used to develop the 

ratios for the projection periods represent all U.S. air 

carriers, whereas those for the 1953-67 period are only 

for U.S. route air carriers. The smaller supplemental and 

commercial operators contract out a large share of their 

maintenance activities to general aviation repair stations. 

If these carriers were included in the 1953-67 data, the 

resulting ratios would be somewhat lower. Second, the 

recent high mechanic-to-aircraft ratios may be viewed as 

unusual—perhaps a response to recent rapid rises in air 

travel and aircraft utilization rates. Also, the training of 

mechanics probably was increased during this period as 

the shiftover from piston to jet aircraft and the 

introduction of second generation jets required reorientation and refresher courses for some mechanics. Thus, 

with large numbers of mechanics being retrained, the 

employment level of mechanics rose atypically. On the 

other hand, the high ratios of mechanics to aircraft in 

the mid-1960’s may signify that the mix of aircraft of 

the future will require an increasing number of 

mechanics per aircraft. The increased complexity of 

instrumentation, for example, may more than offset the

21 Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit., table 3,

p. 22.

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Table 27. Preliminary and final estimates of the instructional flying aircraft fleet,

by type of aircraft, 1967, 1972, and 1977

Type of aircraft

1964

fleet

size

1975

original

FAA

forecast of

fleet size

Preliminary estimates of fleet size Final estimate of

fleet size

Interpolated

1967

I nterpolated

1972

Extrapolated

1977 1967 1972 1977

T o ta l............ 6,855 14,550 9,059 12,731 15,952 8,680 12,775 16,399

Single-engine................. 6,545 14,000 8,666 12,200 15,357 8,315 12,267 15,734

Multiengine................. 120 200 142 178 215 134 175 210

Turbine.......................... 9 30 20 39 34 9 32 58

Rotorcraft.................... 73 170 109 168 188 96 150 227

Other ............................. 108 150 122 146 158 126 151 170

S O U R C E : 1 96 4 Fleet Size—General Aviation—A Study and Forecast o f the Fleet and its Use in 1975, op. c it., pp. 4 8 -5 2 . Prelim inary and fin al estimates fo r 1 96 7 , 1 97 2 , and 1977 developed by the Bureau o f Labor Statistics.

easier to maintain jet engines, the greater efficiencies in 

aircraft maintenance, and the greater reliability of 

electronic equipment. The argument in favor of higher 

mechanic to aircraft ratios in the future was discarded, 

however, after discussing the matter with industry 

officials and evaluating the experience of other industries as to the effect of rapid changes in technology on 

mechanic levels. Thus, the projected employment 

requirements for mechanics by the air carriers of 61,000 

and 70,000 for 1972 and 1977, respectively, were 

considered reasonable.

General aviation pilot and mechanic employment

requirements

Hie lack of historical data on general aviation pilot 

and mechanic employment made more difficult the 

development of methods for projecting employment in 

this sector. The specificity needed in pilot projections 

(type of flying) further narrowed the potential 

approaches. The methods selected and described in the 

following paragraphs were designed to utilize the data 

that were already available or that could be developed 

from existing records. These methods, and those of the 

air carriers, were designed to reflect forecasts of key 

industry variables published by the FAA; for example, 

forecasts of the size and composition of the aircraft fleet 

and flight hours. They were structured so that future 

shifts in FAA forecasts may be incorporated into the 

procedures and their implications on manpower requirements measured. The employment projections presented

28Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit.

in this study reflect, and are dependent upon, the 

realization of general aviation forecasts prepared by 

FAA.28

General aviation pilot projection method

In general, the procedure selected to project general 

aviation pilot employment requirements by type of 

flying was (1) to construct current pilot-to-aircraft 

ratios; (2) project these relationships to the target years; 

and (3) apply the projected relationship to aircraft fleet 

forecasts. This procedure assumes that there exists a 

relationship between changes in the number of aircraft 

operated by the various sectors of general aviation and 

the requirements for pilots. The three basic inputs used 

in this system are:

1. Current pilot employment by type of flying.

2. Fleet size for each flying activity, by type of 

aircraft, 1967,1972, and 1977.

3. Pilot-to-aircraft ratios for each type of flying 

activity, by type of aircraft, 1967, 1972, and 

1977.

Current pilot employment. In the past, studies 

conducted to determine future pilot needs in general 

aviation have been hampered by the complete lack of 

reliable data on the current employment of professional 

pilots. The availability of current employment is essential, of course, as a base upon which to build projections. 

To establish current pilot employment, the FAA was 

requested to prepare a special tabulation of pilot 

employment from active aeromedical records. This 

tabulation provided an unduplicated count of all pilots 

residing in the United States who had undergone the 

required medical examination during the 15-month

29

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period ending August 1967. This tabulation identified 

both the occupation and industry of employment of the 

pilots and made possible the elimination of all nonprofessional pilots from consideration in the pilot count. 

For example, those reporting their primary occupation 

as other than pilot were deleted. Similarly, pilots 

employed outside of general aviation, such as airlines 

and government, were removed.

The following tabulation shows pilot employment 

levels in 1967 for each type of flying activity, derived 

from FAA aeromedical records:

1967

Type o f flying P ilo t e m p lo y m e n t

Total, general a v ia tio n ................ .......................... 25,028

Aerial application.................... ....................... 1,543

Instructional fly in g ................ ....................... 3,336

Other f ly in g ............................. ....................... ^ 0 0

Total, not sp ecified....................... ....................... 19,649

Executive.................................... ....................... 211,893

Air Taxi....................................... ....................... *6,224

Industrial/special....................... ....................... 2 1,532

1 Based on the small size and low utilization o f the aircraft in

this flying activity, pilot employment was estimated to be about

500 in 1967. It should be noted that while this is basically a

judgment estimate, it seems reasonable and, even if it is in

substantial error, it would have little impact on total pilot

remrirements during the next decade.

2 Only a single employment control total for executive,

air taxi, and industrial/special flying activities could be obtained

from the FAA medical records data. To determine the 1967

employment levels for each o f these flying activities, the control

total was used to establish pilot/aircraft ratios. The ratios then

were applied to estimates o f the aircraft fleet by type o f aircraft

in each activity and the resulting pilot employment summed to a

total for each activity.

General aviation aircraft fleet, by type of aircraft and

flying activity, 1967' 1972, and 1977. Estimates of the 

general aviation fleet size by type of aircraft and type of 

flying were derived through the use of two FAA reports. 

The first provided 1975 fleet forecasts by type of 

aircraft for each activity.29 The second provided revised 

forecasts at an aggregated level but did not identify the 

information on aircraft by type of flying (table 11). To 

move from the forecasts presented in these reports to 

the final fleet estimates required by the projection 

technique, three separate steps were required. First, 

using the 1964-75 data presented in the first FAA 

report, preliminary 1967,1972, and 1977 fleet estimates

29General A viation—A Study and Forecast o f the Fleet and

Its Use in 1975 (Federal Aviation Administration, July 1966).

30 General Aviation, A Study and Forecast o f the Fleet and

Its Uses, 1975, (Federal Aviation Administration, July 1966),

tables 24-53.

were developed by type of flying and type of aircraft by 

extrapolating the 1964-75 estimated aircraft fleet to 

1977 and interpolating to derive 1967 and 1972 

estimates. These preliminary estimates then were totaled 

by type of aircraft and compared with the more recent 

FAA forecasts. Revised estimates of fleet size for each 

type of flying then were computed by forcing, on a 

simple prorata basis, the preliminary estimates to the 

more current FAA forecasts. (Table 27 illustrates this 

procedure and shows the resulting 1967, 1972, and 1977 

fleet estimates for instructional flying.) Since this study 

concerns only professional pilots, the final step was to 

eliminate from the fleet estimates all aircraft used in 

personal flying, as well as business aircraft flown by 

nonprofessionals. Aircraft used for personal purposes 

were removed simply by subtracting from the total 

general aviation fleet all aircraft used in personal flying. 

On the other hand, the business fleet was first divided 

into two components—executive and other business—on 

the basis of the proportion reported in each activity in 

1964. The aircraft in the “ other business” component 

then were subtracted from the general aviation fleet 

estimates. Table 28 shows the final estimates and 

projections of fleet size for each flying activity by type 

of aircraft derived through this procedure.

General aviation pilot/aircraft ratios. Having developed estimates of pilot employment and aircraft fleet 

for each flying activity, an overall pilot-to-aircraft ratio 

then could be computed (pilot employment/number of 

aircraft) for each type of flying in general aviation. 

However, in order that final pilot employment projections reflect the forecasted shifts in aircraft fleet mix 

during the next decade, it was necessary to establish 

pilot-to-aircraft ratios for each type of aircraft in each 

flying activity.

Such ratios were computed separately for aerial 

application, instructional flying, and other flying. Only 

one set of ratios representing executive transportation, 

air taxi, and industrial/special flying combined could be 

developed, since pilot employment data from FAA 

aeromedical records were limited to a single control total 

covering all three of these activities. Although a distinct 

set of ratios for each flying activity would be preferable, 

the single set may be adequate since the aircraft 

utilization patterns reported30 for these flying activities 

are quite similar.

Table 29 illustrates the procedures followed in 

developing pilot/aircraft ratios for executive, air taxi, 

and industrial/special flying combined. First, the 1964 

aircraft fleet and total flight hours by type of aircraft

30

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Table 28. Estimated general aviation aircraft fleet,!/ by type

of flying and type of aircraft, 1967,1972, and 1977

Type of flying

Type of aircraft

Total aircraft Single-engine Multiengine Turbine Rotorcraft Other

Executive transportation:

1967 ......................................... 12,610 5,974 5,601 705 330 —

1972 ......................................... 17,500 7,203 6,724 2,993 580 —

1977 ......................................... 22,817 8,103 7,978 5,814 922 —

Air-taxi:

1967 ......................................... 7,029 4,091 2,300 172 456 10

1972 ......................................... 11,198 5,567 4,151 811 642 27

1977 ......................................... 15,270 6,810 5,880 1,618 919 43

Aerial application:

1967 ......................................... 5,169 4,905 87 — 177 —

1972 ......................................... 6,240 5,859 95 — 286 —

1977 ......................................... 7,081 6,542 100 — 439 —

Industrial/special:

1967 ......................................... 1,867 1,348 236 — 279 4

1972 ......................................... 2,206 1,553 276 — 371 6

1977 ......................................... 2,513 1,685 306 — 514 8

Instructional:

1967 ......................................... 8,680 8,315 134 9 96 126

1972 ......................................... 12,775 12,267 175 32 150 151

1977 ......................................... 16,399 15,734 210 58 227 170

Other:

1967 ......................................... 2,235 1,697 360 7 100 71

1972 ......................................... 2,814 2,157 325 22 172 138

1977 ......................................... 3,302 2,522 273 38 271 198

-1/Excludes aircraft in personal and business fly in g except executive transportation.

S O U R C E : Bureau o f Labor Statistics.

reported by the FAA were used to obtain average annual 

hours flown by type of aircraft (Col. 3). The annual 

flight hours then were applied to the estimated 1967 

aircraft fleet resulting in estimates of total hours flown 

by each type of aircraft for 1967. Total 1967 hours then 

were adjusted for the estimated crew compliment (Col. 

7), and the resulting distribution (Col. 8) was used to 

distribute the total pilot population (19,649) (Col. 9) 

among the various type aircraft. Individual pilot/aircraft 

ratios for each type of aircraft then were computed by 

simply relating the number of pilots to the number of 

aircraft (Col. 10).

This procedure was followed for each of the other 

flying activities, i.e.,-aerial application, instructional 

flying, and other flying activities. Estimates of pilots per 

crew for multi-engine aircraft varied among the flying 

activities, depending on the proportion of aircraft over

800 h.p. to the total number of multi-engine aircraft in 

the various flying activities. The estimated number of 

pilots per crew for turbine powered aircraft was based 

on normal crew compliments reported by FAA.31

The final estimates of 1967 pilot-to-aircraft ratios 

developed for general aviation, by type of aircraft and 

type of flying, are shown in table 30.

Projections of pilot-to-aircraft ratios in general aviation to 1972 and 1977 were based on expected changes 

in aircraft utilization patterns (hours flown), assuming 

that regulated crew sizes in each type of flying activity 

will not change over the projection period. Table 31 

shows that FAA forecasts little change in the average 

flight hours for most types of aircraft flown by 

professional pilots in general aviation, the sole exception

31 Ibid.

31

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Table 29. Procedure for estimating executive, air taxi, and industrial/special flying

pilot/aircraft ratios, by type of aircraft, 1967

ts )

Type of aircraft Aircraft

fleet1/

1964

total hours

flown^/

(In thousands)

1964

average

hours flown

per aircraft

(Col. 2 t Col. 1)

1967

estimated

aircraft

fleet 3/

1967

estimated

hours flown

(In thousands)

(Col. 3 x Col. 4)

Pilots

per

crew

Weight

flight hours

(In thousands)

(Col. 5 x Col. 6)

Percent

distribution

of weight

flight hours

1967

estimated

number of

pilots

1967

estimated

pilot/aircraft

ratios

(Col. 9 -rCol. 4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Total . . . 28,205 8,189 — 21,506 6,428 — 7,246 100.0 19,649 —

Single-engine . . . 18,333 5,091 277.7 11,413 3,169 1.00 3,169 43.7 8,587 .7524

Multiengine . . . 8,652 2,643 305.5 8,137 2,486 1.25 3,108 42.9 8,429 1.0359

Turbine.............. 285 127 445.6 877 391 1.50 587 8.1 1,592 1.8153

Rotorcraft . . . . 932 326 349.8 1,065 373 1.00 373 5.2 1,022 .9596

Other ................. 3 2 666.7 14 9 1.00 9 .1 20 1.4286

SOURCE: 1964 Aircraft Fleet — General Aviation—A Study and Forecast o f the Fleet and Its Use in 1975, op. cit., appendix tables C, I, and M, pp. 109, 115, and 119. 1964 total

hours flow n—Ibid., appendix tables D, J, and N, pp. 110, 116, and 120. 1967 estimated aircraft fleet—Bureau of Labor Statistics. See table 28. Pilots per Crew— General A viatio nA Study and Forecast o f the Fleet and Its Use in 1975, op. cit., tables 42 and 43. 1967 estimated number of pilots—pilots population from text tabulation, p. 93.

Table 30. Estimated ratio of pilots to aircraft in general aviation, by type of

aircraft and type of flying, 1967

Type of flying

Type of aircraft

Single-engine Multiengine Turbine Rotorcraft Other

Executive transportation.................................................................. 0.75 1.04 1.82 0.96 1.43

Air-taxi............................................................................................... .75 1.04 1.82 .96 1.43

Aerial application............................................................................. .29 .13 — .69 —

I ndustrial/special............................................................................. .75 1.04 1.82 .96 1.43

Instructional...................................................................................... .39 .43 .78 .39 .13

O ther............................................................................................. . .15 .37 1.71 .80 .31

NOTE: Ratios have been rounded for presentation.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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being a 25 percent rise in the flight hours of turbinepowered aircraft. To reflect FAA’s forecast of a rise in 

turbine aircraft utilization in BLS projections of 

pilot/aircraft ratios, the 1967 turbine ratios for each 

type of flying activity were increased by 12.5 percent 

and 25 percent for 1972 and 1977, respectively. The 

1972 and 1977 ratios for all other types of aircraft were 

held at their 1967 levels.

The last step in projecting employment requirements 

for pilots in general aviation was to apply the individual 

pilot/aircraft ratios developed for 1972 and 1977, by 

type of aircraft, to the corresponding estimate of fleet 

size in each flying activity. (See table 32 for an 

illustration of this procedure as applied to instructional 

flying.) The resulting number of pilots, by type of 

aircraft, then were totaled for each flying activity. (See 

table 18 for final projections of pilot employment 

requirements in general aviation.)

It should be noted again that the development of 

satisfactory pilot projection methods was hampered 

severely by the lack of relevant statistical data. Should 

data such as an annual series on pilot employment in 

general aviation become available, the method presented 

here should be reappraised.

General aviation mechanic projection method

The method used to project mechanic employment 

requirements in general aviation involved the development of 1967 ratio of mechanics to total general 

aviation flight hours, and the application of this ratio to 

FAA forecasts32 of flight hours in 1972 and 1977. This 

procedure assumes that increases in mechanic productivity-resulting from improved tools, testing equipment, 

and the centralization of repair activities will be offset 

by the continued trend toward larger, more complex 

aircraft with higher maintenance requirements. Of the 

available data, flight hours were selected as the best 

measure of future growth in mechanic employment, 

since a large share of aircraft maintenance results from 

regulations requiring aircraft inspection and overhaul 

based on the number of hours flown.

To determine a 1967 mechanic employment level, 

two sources were utilized. First, an estimate was made of 

mechanic employment in certificated repair stations by 

tabulating the number of technical personnel (mechanics

32Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1967-77, op. cit., table 8,

p. 27.

33 In addition to the total number o f technical personnel, this

report also enumerates separately the number o f mechanics and

repairmen who were certificated.

Table 31. Average annual utilization of general aviation aircraft,

by type of aircraft, 1964, and forecast to 1975

Type of aircraft

Average annual utilization

(hours flown)

1964 1975

Percent change,

1964-75

Single engine piston (four-places and over). . . 176 172 - 2.3

Multiengine p is t o n .................................................. 278 260 - 6.5

Turbine ...................................................................... 448 560 +25.0

R o to rc ra ft.................................................................. 342 337 - 1.5

Other ............................................................................ 88 83 - 5.7

S O U R C E : General A v ia tio n —A S tu d y and Forecast o f th e Fleet and Its Use in

1 9 7 5 , o p . c it., tab le 2; P t. I l l , p. 1 9.

and repairmen) shown on each repair station’s annual 

inspection report (FAA form 3572).33 Employees of 

certificated repair stations outside general aviation, i.e., 

government and air carriers, were identified and 

deducted from the total. Next, estimates of mechanics 

and repairmen employed in noncertificated repair stations were obtained from unpublished records maintained at each FAA regional office. By combining the 

data from these sources, mechanic employment in 1967 

was estimated to be 50,400 (table 16). Using this 

employment estimate, the ratio of mechanic to flight 

hours was computed and applied to the FAA 1972 and 

1977 forecast of flight hours in general aviation (table 

12). Following this procedure, requirements for 

mechanics were projected to increase to 72,100 in 1972 

and 92,800 in 1977.

Government pilot and mechanic employment

requirements

The projections of pilot employment requirements in 

government are judgmental, based on an analysis of 

available historical data and discussions with knowledgeable government officials. The relatively small numbers 

of pilots and mechanics employed in this sector, coupled 

with limited data available, precluded the development 

of a projection model. Current levels of pilot and 

mechanic employment in nonmilitary government agencies was compiled from several sources. The U.S. Civil 

Service Commission provided historical information on 

most pilots employed by Federal agencies. Additional 

data were obtained directly from the principal Federal 

agencies employing pilots and mechanics. State and local 

government estimates were developed from the special 

tabulation of aeromedical records provided by the FAA.

To project employment, historical data relating to 

Federal Government employment of pilots and 

mechanics were analyzed. Discussions concerning probable future developments were held with officials of

33

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Table 32. Procedure for projecting employment requirements for pilots in

instructional flying, by type of aircraft, 1972 and 1977

Type of aircraft

1972 1977

Aircraft

fleet

Pilot/aircraft

ratios

Pilot

employment

requirements

(Col. 1 x Col. 2)

Aircraft

fleet

Pilot/aircraft

ratios

Pilot

employment

requirements

(Col. 4 x Col. 5)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

T o ta l................................................... 12,775 — 4,927 16,399 — 6,344

Single-engine (four-places and over) ............... 12,267 .3870 4,747 15,734 .3870 6,089

M ultiengine......................................................... 175 .4254 74 210 .4254 89

Turbine.................................................................. 32 .77781/ 28 58 .77781/ 56

R otorcraft............................................................ 150 .3854 58 227 .3854 87

O th e r..................................................................... 151 .1349 20 170 .1349 23

■1/1967 pilot/aircraft ratios for turbine aircraft were adjusted upwards by 12.5 percent to derive the 1972 estimate and by 25 percent for

the 1977 estimate; ail other ratios were maintained at the 1967 level.

SOURCE: Aircraft Fleet—data from table 27. Pilot/aircraft ratios—data from table 29 (unrounded).

most of the principal Federal agencies employing these 

workers. Based on this information, requirements for 

pilots are expected to increase from an estimated 2,000 

in 1967 to 2,400 by 1972 and 2,900 by 1977 (table 19). 

Mechanic employment, however, is expected to remain 

at about 1,100 throughout the projection period.

Pilot and mechanic replacement requirements

For the purpose of this study, replacement requirements relate to the number of pilots and mechanics who 

will be needed to replace those who leave employment 

due to normal, early, and disability retirement, and 

death.34 Lack of data prevented the development of a 

single, systematic procedure for estimating pilot and 

mechanic replacement needs for each sector of civil

34 To fully appraise the overall requirements for pilots and

mechanics in civil aviation over the next decade, transfers out of

these occupations should be considered. However, lack o f

appropriate data made the development of such estimates

impossible. A transfer out o f an occupation occurs when a

worker moves to another occupation, e.g., from airline pilot to

real estate salesman or from aircraft mechanic to automobile

mechanic. Hypothetically, if 5 percent o f the mechanics

employed in civil aviation transferred out each year over the

next decade, about 65,000 job openings would be created.

However, caution should be used in interpreting such estimates.

An analysis o f the supply o f workers in the occupation, not

attempted in this study, would include data on transfers to

aircraft mechanic from other occupations. The magnitude o f

transfers-in theoretically could exceed, equal, or fall short o f the

number o f transfers-out. Thus, the number o f transfers-in can

reduce the importance o f transfers-out in any evaluation o f

occupational requirements. Equally important, the experience

level o f workers transferring into an occupation should be

evaluated in developing estimates o f training requirements.

aviation. In air carriers, all pilots reaching age 60 during 

the decade ahead were assumed to have retired. Estimates of early retirements, disability retirements, and 

deaths were based on recent industry experience. In 

general aviation and government, all pilots reaching age 

65 were assumed to have retired. Losses due to death, 

early retirement, etc., were developed using the BLS age 

specific separation rates. These rates also were used to 

estimate mechanic losses in all three sectors of civil 

aviation.

U.S. air carrier p ilo t replacem en t needs. The technique used to estimate U.S. air carrier pilot losses due to 

retirement and death were based on the following major 

assumptions: (1) The mandatory retirement age for U.S. 

air carrier pilots will remain at age 60, and early 

retirement provisions will remain open to most airline 

pilots at age 55; (2) The number of pilots leaving 

employment for other than normal retirement, i.e., for 

early retirement, disability retirement, and death, will 

follow patterns similar to recent experience; and (3) the 

new pilots hired by air carriers will be limited to persons 

under 45 years of age.

During the next decade, a large proportion of 

replacement needs will stem from the retirement of 

currently employed pilots. (According to this study, 

retirements alone will account for 70 percent of all 

replacement needs.) Currently, FAA regulations require 

that air carrier pilots retire at 60 years of age. Most 

company, union, and Government officials indicate that 

a change in the mandatory retirement age is unlikely 

over the next decade.

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Since all pilots currently over 50 years of age will 

retire or otherwise leave the labor force during the 

1967-77 decade, the first step was to obtain an age 

distribution of currently employed U.S. air carrier pilots. 

For this purpose, a special unpublished tabulation was 

prepared from FAA aeromedical records reporting the 

age distribution of all air carrier pilots. Pilot retirement 

losses then were derived by totaling the number of pilots 

reaching the mandatory retirement age during each of 

the projection periods-1968-72 and 1973-77. For 

example, all air carrier pilots currently 55-59 years of 

age will leave the work force by 1972. This procedure 

accounted for losses, due to all causes, that will be 

experienced by pilots currently 50 years of age or 

over.35

In addition, it was necessary to estimate the number 

of pilots currently under 50 years of age who will take 

advantage of early retirement options. Air carrier pilots, 

currently 45 to 50 years of age, will be eligible for early 

retirement some time during the 1973-77 period. Estimates of early retirements for these pilots were developed from a special survey couaucted by the Air 

Transport Association.36 This survey reported the number of early retirements experienced during 1966. By 

relating early retirements to the eligible pilot population 

(those 55-60 years of age) in 1966, an early retirement 

rate of 1.84 percent was derived. Estimates of early 

retirements for the 1973-77 period then were computed 

by applying this rate to the number of pilots eligible for 

early retirement each year beginning in 1973 (the year 

those currently 50 years of age are eligible for early 

retirement).

The remaining replacement requirements covered by 

this study, i.e., those stemming from disability retirement and death of persons under 50 years of age, were 

developed based on 1966 experience reported in the

35 Early retirements are not identified separately for those

pilots currently over 50 years o f age. Consequently, die resulting

estimates o f losses may be somewhat understated for the first

5-year period and overstated for the second 5-year period.

Furthermore, the estimates include a small number o f pilot

losses for reasons other than retirement or death, such as

promotion or transfer to another industry o f employment.

36Air Transport Association o f America, unpublished survey,

June 1966, dated January 1967.

37 For a full discussion o f the development and use o f BLS

separation rates, including their limitations, see Tomorrow's

Manpower Needs, National Manpower Projections and a Guide

to Their Use as a Tool in Developing State and Area Manpower

Projections (BLS Bulletin 1606, Volume I, “Developing Area

Manpower Projections”) p. 47.

3 8 The mid-point o f each projection period was used to

account for the retirement or death o f entrants into the

occupation during the next decade.

previously cited special ATA survey. An annual rate was 

developed from this survey that measured the number of 

pilots leaving the work force in 1966 either because of 

disability, retirement, or death. Estimates for the next 

decade then were computed by applying this rate (.35 

percent) to the total pilot employment projection needs 

for each year from 1968 to 1977. (See table 9 for 

estimates of U.S. air carrier pilot replacement needs.)

G eneral aviation and govern m en t p ilo t replacem ent

needs. The estimates of retirement and death requirements for general aviation and government pilots were 

based on a number of assumptions. First, to facilitate 

estimating pilot retirements, it was assumed that general 

aviation and government pilots will retire by age 65. 

Since fewer than 150 pilots over 65 years of age were 

employed in general aviation in 1967, this stipulation 

had little impact on future pilot needs. Second, the age 

distribution of pilots in general aviation and government 

was assumed to remain constant through the decade 

ahead. Finally, it was assumed that “age specific 

separation rates,” developed by BLS and based on the 

worklife experience of all males, are applicable to 

general aviation and government pilots in comparable 

age groups under 60 years of age.37

The development of estimates of general aviation and 

government pilot losses due to retirements and deaths 

involved two major procedures. First, the distribution of 

pilots by current age was based on the special tabulation 

prepared from FAA aeromedical records. All pilots 

reaching age 65 during either of the two projection 

periods (1968-72 and 1973-77) were counted as losses to 

employment. Next, estimates were made of the number 

of pilots who will not reach age 65 by 1977, but who 

will leave the work force due to retirement or death, by 

applying BLS 5-year age specific separation rates to 

comparable pilot age distribution intervals. To carry out 

this procedure, it was necessary to estimate the midpoints of employment requirements in each projection 

period (1968-72 and 1973-77) through interpolation.38 

The mid-point employment estimates then were distributed among the age groups using the current age 

distribution obtained from the FAA aeromedical records. Finally, the BLS 5-year age specific separation 

rates were applied to employment in each age interval. 

(See tables 33 and 34.) Total replacement needs then 

were determined by summing estimated losses for all age 

groups in each period, 1968-72 and 1973-77. Within 

general aviation, estimates of deaths and retirements 

were established for each flying activity by distributing 

losses for each projection period among the separate

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Table 33. Procedure for estimating general aviation pilot retirement and death losses,

1968-72 and 1973-77

Age group

Percent

distribution

of pilots

Estimated distribution

of employment 5-Year age

specific

separation

rates for

males

Deaths and retirements

Mid-point

1968-72

(Col. 2 x total

of Col. 3)

Mid-point

1973-77

(Col. 2 x total

of Col. 4)

Total

1968-77

(Col. 7 + Col. 8)

1968-72

(Col. 3 x Col. 5)

1973-77

(Col. 4 x Col. 5)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Total .... 100.0 32,094 47,446 5,502 2,220 3,282

1 6 -1 9 ................ .18 58 85 .00762 1 0 1

20-24 ................ 3.60 1,155 1,708 .00882 25 10 15

25-29 ............... 9.27 2,975 4,398 .00903 67 27 40

30-34 ............... 14.47 4,644 6,865 .01485 171 69 102

35-44 ............... 39.54 12,690 18,760 .02917 917 370 547

45-54 ................ 27.00 8,665 12,810 .09162 1,968 794 1,174

55-59 ................ 3.71 1,191 1,760 .19614 579 234 345

60 and over . . 2.23 716 1,058 U/> 1,774 716 1,058

1 /a II pilots reaching age 65 during either of the two projection periods were counted as losses to employment.

NOTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: Percent distribution of pilots—based on FAA aeromedical records. Five-year age specific separation rates for males—BLS estimates

based on the work life experience of all male workers.

Table 34. Procedure for estimating government pilot retirement and death losses,

1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77

Age group

Percent

distribution

of pilots

Estimated distribution

of employment 5-Year age

specific

separation

rates for

males

Deaths and retirements

Mid-point

1968-72

(Col. 2 x total

of Col. 3)

Mid-point

1973-77

(Col. 2 x total

of Col. 4)

Total

1968-77

(Col. 7 + Col. 8)

1968-72

(Col. 3 x Col. 5)

1973-77

(Col. 4 x Col. 5)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Total .... 100.0 2,210 2,671 337 153 185

1 6 -1 9 ................ .18 4 5 .00762 0 0 0

20-24 ................ 3.60 80 96 .00882 1 1 1

25-29 ............... 9.27 205 248 .00903 4 2 2

30-34 ................ 14.47 320 386 .01485 11 5 6

35-44 ................ 39.54 874 1,056 .02917 56 25 31

45-54 ................ 27.00 597 721 .09162 121 55 66

55-59 ................ 3.71 82 99 .19614 35 16 19

60 and over '. . 2.23 49 60 d /) 109 49 60

J / a II pilots reaching age 65 during either of the two projection periods were counted as losses to employment.

NOTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: Percent distribution of pilots—based on FAA aeromedical records. Five-year age specific separation rates for males—BLS estimates

based on the work life experience of all male workers.

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Table 35. Estimated general aviation pilot retirements and deaths, by type of

flying, 1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77

Type of flying

Estimated percent

distribution of employment Retirement and deaths

Mid-point

1968-72

Mid-point

1973-77

Total 1968-72 1973-77

T o ta l........................................................... 100.0 100.0 5,502 2,200 3,282

Executive transportation ......................................... 48.2 50.1 2,713 1,070 1,@43

Air-taxi......................................................................... 26.5 28.1 1,510 589 921

Aerial application....................................................... 5.4 4.3 260 119 141

I ndustrial/special................................... 5.2 4.1 251 116 135

Instructional............................................................. 12.9 11.9 676 286 390

Other ............................................................................ 1.8 1.6 92 40 52

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Table 36. Procedure for estimating U.S. air carrier mechanic retirement and death losses,

1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77

Age group

Percent

distribution

of airplane

mechanics

Estimated distribution

of employment 5-Year age

specific

separation

rates for

males

Deaths and retirements

Mid-point

1968-72

(Col. 2 x total

of Col. 3)

Mid-point

1973-77

(Col. 2 x total

of Col. 4)

1968-77

(Col. 7 + Col. 8)

1968-72

(Col. 3 x Col. 5)

1973-77

(Col. 4 x Col. 5)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Total .... 100.0 56,500 65,500 6,663 3,086 3,577

1 4 -1 9 ............... .75 424 491 .00762 7 3 4

20-24 ................ 7.13 4,028 4,670 .00882 77 36 41

25-29 ............... 16.55 9,351 10,840 .00903 182 84 98

30-34 ............ 15.68 8,859 10,270 .01485 285 132 153

35-44 ............... 35.29 19,939 23,115 .02917 1,256 582 674

45-54 ............... 17.21 9,724 11,273 .09162 1,924 891 1,033

55-59 ............... 4.43 2,503 2,902 .19614 1,060 491 569

60-64 ............... 2.14 1,209 1,402 .51542 1,346 623 723

65 and over . . .84 475 550 .51273 526 244 282

NOTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: Percent distribution of mechanics—U.S. Census of Population: 1960. Subject reports. Occupational Characteristics, final report

PC (2)-7A. (U.S. Bureau of the Census), table 6, p. 75. 5-Year age specific separation rates for males—BLS estimates based on the work life

experience of all male workers.

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Table 37. Procedure for estimating general aviation mechanic retirement and death losses,

1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77

Age group Percent

distribution

of airplane

mechanics

Estimated distribution

of employment 5-Year age

specific

separation

rates for

males

Retirements and deaths

Mid-point

1968-72

(Col. 2 x total

of Col. 3)

Mid-point

1973-77

(Col. 2 x total

of Col. 4)

1968-77

(Col. 7 + Col. 8)

1968-72

(Col. 3 x Col. 5)

1973-77

(Col. 4 x Col. 5)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Total .... 100.0 61,270 82,490 7,850 3,347 4,503

1 4 -1 9 ................ .75 460 619 .00762 9 4 5

20-24 ................ 7.13 4,369 5,882 .00882 91 39 52

25-29 ................ 16.55 10,140 13,652 .00903 215 92 123

30-34 ................ 15.68 9,607 12,934 .01485 335 143 192

35-44 ................ 35.29 21,622 29,111 .02917 1,480 631 849

45-54 ................ 17.21 10,545 14,197 .09162 2,267 966 1,301

55-59 ................ 4.43 ‘2,714 3,654 .19614 1,249 532 717

60-64 ................ 2.14 1,311 1,765 .51542 1,585 676 909

65 and over . . .84 515 693 .51273 619 264 355

taoTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: Percent distribution of airplane mechanics—U.S. Census of Population: 1960, op. cit., table 6, p. 75. 5-Year age specific separation rates for males—Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates based on the work life experience of all male workers.

Table 38. Procedure for estimating government mechanic retirements and death losses,

1968-77,1968-72, and 1973-77

Age group Percent

distribution

of airplane

mechanics

Estimated distribution

of employment 5-Year age

specific

separation

rates for

males

Retirements and deaths

Mid-point

1968-72

(Col. 2 x total

of Col. 3)

Mid-point

1973-77

(Col. 2 x total

of Col. 4)

1968-77

(Col. 7 + Col. 8)

1968-72

(Col. 3 x Col. 5)

1973-77

(Col. 4 x Col. 5)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Total .... 100.0 1,100 1,100 122 61 61

1 4 -1 9 ................ .75 8 8 .00762 0 0 0

20-24 ................ 7.13 78 78 .00882 2 1 1

25-29 ............... 16.55 182 182 .00903 4 2 2

30-34 ................ 15.68 172 172 .01485 6 3 3

35-44 ................ 35.29 388 388 .02917 22 11 11

45-54 ................ 17.21 189 189 .09162 34 17 17

55-59 ................ 4.43 49 49 .19614 20 10 10

60-64 ................ 2.14 24 24 .51542 24 12 12

65 and over . . .84 9 9 .51273 10 5 5

NOTE: Individual parts may not add to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: Percent distribution of airplane mechanics—U.S. Census of Population: 1960, op. cit., table 6, p. 75. 5-year age specific separation

rates for males—Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates based on the work life experience of all male workers.

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general aviation flying activities on the basis of projected 

pilot employment requirements at the mid-point in each 

projection period. (See table 35.)

U.S. air carrier, general aviation, and govern m en t

m echanic replacem en t needs. A single method was 

followed to estimate retirement and death losses for 

mechanics in each sector of civil aviation—air carriers, 

general aviation, and government. The procedure was as 

follows: First, estimated employment requirements at 

the mid-point of each projection period (1968-1972 and 

1973-1977) were made through interpolation.39 Next, 

employment at each mid-point then was distributed by 

age group using the age distribution reported in the 1960 

decennial Census of Population.40 Finally, the BLS

5-year age specific separation ratios were applied to 

employment in each age interval. Total replacement 

needs were derived by summing estimated losses for all 

age groups in each projection period. Tables 36-38 sho>* 

the steps followed and the resulting death and retirement estimates for each sector of civil aviation.

39 See footnote 38, p. 35.

40U.S. Census o f Population: 1960. Subject Reports. Occupational Characteristics, Final Report PC (2>7A. (U.S. Bureau

o f the Census), table 6, p. 71. This procedure assumes that the

age distribution o f mechanics remains constant during the

1960-77 period. A comparison o f the 1950 and 1960 Census

data indicates that the age structure shifted upward during the

1950’s. However, this trend may not continue during the 1960’s

and 1970’s because o f the large number o f young workers

entering the labor force during these decades.

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