### CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS
TABLE OF CONTENTS 9.1 INTRODUCTION
........................................................................................................... 9-1 9.2 APPROACH
.................................................................................................................... 9-1 9.2.2 Sensitivity of Shipments to Installed Cost
........................................................... 9-3 9.2.3 Shipments by Product Class
................................................................................. 9-4 9.3 SHIPMENTS FORECAST
.............................................................................................. 9-5

LIST OF TABLES Table 9.2.1 Shares of Motor Owner Type by Application
......................................................9-2 Table 9.2.2 Application Shares by Equipment Class
.............................................................. 9-3 Table 9.2.3 Estimated Polyphase Small Electric Motor National Shipments, 2007
...............9-4 Table 9.2.4 Estimated Capacitor-Start, Induction-Run Small Electric Motor National Shipments, 2007
................................................................................................... 9-5 Table 9.2.5 Estimated Capacitor-Start, Capacitor-Run Small Electric Motor National Shipments, 2007
................................................................................................... 9-5 Table 9.3.1 Annual and Cumulative Shipments Forecast for Small Electric Motors
............. 9-6

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 9.3.1 Shipments Forecast for Small Motors by Equipment Class
................................9-6 Figure 9.3.2 Affected Stock of Capacitor-Start, Induction-Run Small Electric Motors
.......... 9-7

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### CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

9.1 INTRODUCTION Product shipments estimates are a necessary input to the national energy savings (NES) and net present value calculations. Shipments are also a necessary input to the manufacturerimpact analysis. A key output of the shipments model is an estimate of the rate at which an inservice stock of old, less-efficient motors may be replaced by more-efficient motors meeting the candidate standard. The core of the shipments analysis is an accounting model that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) developed to simulate how existing and future purchases are incorporated into an in-service stock of aging motors that are gradually replaced.

9.2 APPROACH DOE developed a shipments forecast for each small motor equipment class. Within each class, small motor shipments are comprised of products in a number of horsepower ratings and three rotation speeds (corresponding to 2-pole, 4-pole, and 6-pole motors). DOE conducted its life-cycle cost analysis (see preliminary Technical Support Document (TSD) chapter 8) using representative 4-pole motors in each equipment class. To formulate its shipments estimates, DOE began with shipments data provided by National Electrical Manufacturers Association 1 

### (NEMA) during for the determination analysis. According to these data, polyphase motors account for an estimated 8 percent of total unit shipments while capacitor-start, induction-run (CSIR) motors are 87 percent and capacitor-start, capacitor-run (CSCR) motors are 5 percent. To calculate national impacts, DOE applied the average costs and energy use for a typical motor in each equipment class and applied these cost and energy use estimates to the total shipments in that product class for all speeds and horsepower ratings. This amounts to an assumption that the 4-pole motors are representative of the entire market. In the main shipments analysis, DOE’s forecast assumes that motors sales are driven by macroeconomic activity of the sectors in which they are used. In contrast, during the determination analysis, DOE examined medium growth and high growth cases that had shipments growing at an annual rate of one percent and 1.5 percent per year respectively. Small electric motors are mainly used in the industrial, agricultural, and commercial sectors. DOE estimates that less than one percent of the motors covered in this rule are used in the residential sector. Annual shipments growth rates for each sector are set as equal to annual growth rates in the following drivers, which are provided by the 2008 Annual Energy Outlook ( AEO 2008) 2 

### through 2030:

9-1(%) 

### • Industrial and Agricultural: Manufacturing activity (total shipments—manufacturing only, in dollars);

• Commercial: Commercial floor space;

• Residential: Number of households. For each equipment class, DOE calculated average annual growth rates by weighting the growth rates in the sectoral drivers by the ownership shares of each sector in that class. The sector ownership shares are shown in Table 9.2.1 for each application and the application types for each equipment class are shown in Table 9.2.2. Table 9.2.1 Shares of Motor Owner Type by Application Motor Owner Type No. Application Industrial Commercial Agricultural Residential

1 Air and gas compressors 40% 49% 10% 1% 2 Commercial and industrial heating, ventilating, air-conditioning, and refrigeration equipment 40% 50% 10% 0% 3 Commercial laundry machinery 0% 100% 0% 0% 4 Conveyors 40% 40% 20% 0% 5 Farm machinery 0% 0% 100% 0% 6 Food machinery 20% 60% 20% 0% 7 General industrial machinery 40% 40% 20% 0% 8 Industrial and commercial fans and blowers 50% 50% 0% 0% 9 Machine tools 65% 20% 10% 5% 10 Packaging machinery 75% 10% 10% 5% 11 Pumps and pumping equipment 40% 40% 20% 0% 12 Service industry machinery 40% 40% 20% 0% 13 Textile machinery 100% 0% 0% 0% 14 Woodworking machinery 75% 10% 5% 10%

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### Table 9.2.2 Application Shares by Equipment Class Equipment Class No. Application Polyphase CSIR CSCR

1 Air and gas compressors 9.2% 8.1% 8.1% 2 Commercial and industrial heating, ventilating, airconditioning, and refrigeration equipment 4.3% 8.4% 8.4% 3 Commercial laundry machinery 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 4 Conveyors 18.8% 11.8% 11.8% 5 Farm machinery 3.0% 10.9% 10.9% 6 Food machinery 8.2% 2.1% 2.1% 7 General industrial machinery 3.4% 2.4% 2.4% 8 Industrial and commercial fans and blowers 5.6% 5.9% 5.9% 9 Machine tools 7.3% 1.9% 1.9% 10 Packaging machinery 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 11 Pumps and pumping equipment 33.0% 41.1% 41.1% 12 Service industry machinery 1.5% 3.0% 3.0% 13 Textile machinery 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 14 Woodworking machinery 3.1% 2.4% 2.4% TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 

### The estimated growth rates for each class vary by year. The average annual growth rates for shipments in 2015-2030 are 1.4 percent for polyphase motors and 1.1 percent for CSIR and CSCR motors. After 2030, DOE forecasted shipments using the average growth rates for the years 2020-2030. 9.2.2 Sensitivity of Shipments to Installed Cost Sales of small electric motors may be sensitive to increases in the installed cost that mayresult from efficiency standards. Totally enclosed motors are potential substitutes for the openconstruction motors covered in this rulemaking. These types of motors come in the same frame sizes, hp ratings and have similar performance characteristics. Today, the incremental cost of using a totally enclosed motor instead of an open-construction motor is approximately 18 percent. If the installed cost of open-construction motors were to increase much beyond 18 percent due to energy efficiency standards, there might be some migration to (non-covered) totally enclosed motors. DOE believes that increases in the installed cost of small electric motors could reduce their purchase due to migration to totally enclosed motors or other factors. However, DOE has not found any data that would allow it to estimate the elasticity of small electric motor shipments to change in their purchase price. DOE would like to incorporate an appropriate purchase price elasticity in the notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) phase of its analysis. Therefore, it has 9-3

### requested information and data on what would be an appropriate value to use for purchase price elasticity, and whether this elasticity should only be applied to energy efficiency levels that have an installed cost that is significantly higher than the base case.

9.2.3 Shipments by Product Class To estimate current shipments market shares, DOE submitted to NEMA, on December 7, 2007, a request for shipment data for this purpose. However, NEMA did not receive adequate data from its membership and thus DOE pursued an alternate approach to estimating shipments by equipment class, speed and rated capacity. For the Small Motors Determination Analysis published on July 10, 2006 (71 FR 38799), NEMA provided shipment data on small electric motors to DOE. DOE used these data to create an estimate of national shipments for 2007. The result of this projection is shown in Tables 9.2.3, 9.2.4, and 9.2.5. DOE invited NEMA and/or its members to review and submit comments on the shipments estimates. No comments were received by March 31, 2008. Consequently, DOE locked down the shipments estimate for the preliminary NOPR analysis. Interested parties will have an opportunity to comment on the shipments estimate again once it is made available by DOE in early 2009. Table 9.2.3 Estimated Polyphase Small Electric Motor National Shipments, 2007

Motor Horsepower/Standard Kilowatt Equivalent Six Poles Four Poles Two Poles Total 1/4 hp/0.18 kW 1,967 7,637 1,967 11,571 1/3 hp/0.25 kW 4,784 16,289 3,264 24,338 1/2 hp/0.37 kW 8,181 49,884 3,607 61,671 3/4 hp/0.55 kW 12,286 59,460 82,596 154,342

1 hp/0.75 kW 17,608 71,708 17,608 106,925 11⁄2 hp/1.1 kW 5,885 146,033 5,885 157,804 2-3 hp/1.5-2.2 kW

- 28,268 12,817 41,084 Total 50,711 379,279 127,744 557,735

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### Table 9.2.4 Estimated Capacitor-Start, Induction-Run Small Electric Motor National Shipments, 2007 Motor Horsepower/Standard Kilowatt Equivalent Six Poles Four Poles Two Poles Total 1/4 hp/0.18 kW 348,160 384,581 223,615 956,357 1/3 hp/0.25 kW 597,471 659,971 383,742 1,641,183 1/2 hp/0.37 kW 326,266 534,194 504,566 1,365,025 3/4 hp/0.55 kW 290,405 475,480 449,108 1,214,994

1 hp/0.75 kW

- 57,456 155,520 212,976 >1 hp/0.75 kW

- 25,605 26,964 52,569 Total 5,443,104 

### Table 9.2.5 Estimated Capacitor-Start, Capacitor-Run Small Electric Motor National Shipments, 2007 Motor Horsepower/Standard Kilowatt Equivalent Six Poles Four Poles Two Poles Total 1/4 hp/0.18 kW 18,324 20,241 11,769 50,335 1/3 hp/0.25 kW 31,446 34,735 20,197 86,378 1/2 hp/0.37 kW 17,172 28,115 26,556 71,843 3/4 hp/0.55 kW 15,284 25,025 23,637 63,947

1 hp/0.75 kW

- 3,024 8,185 11,209 > 1 hp/0.75 kW

- 1,348 1,419 2,767 Total 286,479



### 9.3 SHIPMENTS FORECAST DOE’s forecast of annual small electric motor shipments is shown in Figure 9.3.1 and summarized in Table 9.3.1. The figure shows a steady increase in motor sales that corresponds to the steady increase in economic activity forecast byAEO 2008
.

9-5Small Motor Shipments

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Millions CSIR CSCR Polyphase



### Figure 9.3.1 Shipments Forecast for Small Motors by Equipment Class Table 9.3.1 Annual and Cumulative Shipments Forecast for Small Electric Motors

Equipment Class Annual Shipments (millions) 2015 2025 2035 2045 Cumulative 2015–2045 Polyphase 0.638 0.732 0.831 0.944 24.3 CSIR 6.001 6.640 7.423 8.431 219.6 CSCR 0.316 0.349 0.385 0.423 11.4 

### Figure 9.3.2 shows the affected stock forecast from the shipments model for CSIR motors. The affected stock is the accumulation of motors in use that are subject to standards, and energy savings from a standard tends to increase with the accumulating affected stock of equipment. The affected stock increases rapidly initially as the older, inefficient stock of equipment is replaced by standard-compliant equipment. The stock then experiences a relatively long period of a gradual increase as the stock of equipment increases with gradually increasing national economic activity. Then at the end of the forecast period for annual shipments at 2045, the equipment is rapidly replaced by equipment purchased after the end of the forecast period. Detailed data, estimates and forecasts on annual shipments and stocks are provided in the national impact analysis spreadsheet tool that accompanies this TSD.

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### CSIR Motor Affected Stock

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055(Millions)



### Figure 9.3.2 Affected Stock of Capacitor-Start, Induction-Run Small Electric Motors

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### REFERENCES
1. National Electrical Manufacturers Association, Joint NEMA/SMMA Bulletin of US Sales of Selected Small Motors in 2000, September 5, 2001. 2. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration,Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections to 2030, 2008. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA0383(2008).

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