CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

14.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 14-1 


14.2 ASSUMPTIONS............................................................................................................ 14-1 


14.3 METHOD ...................................................................................................................... 14-2 


14.4 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 14-3 


LIST OF TABLES 

Table 14.4.1 AEO2009 Reference Case Forecast................................................................... 14-4 


Table 14.4.2 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast.......................... 14-5 


Table 14.4.3 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast.......................... 14-6 


Table 14.4.4 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast.......................... 14-7 


Table 14.4.5 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast.......................... 14-8 


Table 14.4.6 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast.......................... 14-9 


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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 66.2
CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 


14.1 INTRODUCTION
 

DOE analyzed the effects of residential cooking products and microwave ovens and 

commercial clothes washer standard levels on the electric and gas utility industry using a variant 

of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s National Energy Modeling System 

(NEMS).a NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectoral, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. 

energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce a baseline energy forecast for the 

U.S., the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The AEO for 2009, April Release (AEO2009) forecasts 

energy supply and demand through 2030.1

 DOE used a variant of this model, referred to here as 

NEMS-BT,b to account for the impacts of equipment efficiency standards on the baseline energy 

forecast. DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of a comparison between model results for the 

AEO2009 Reference Case and for policy cases in which standards are in place, and applies the 

same basic set of assumptions as the AEO2009. For example, the operating characteristics (e.g., 

energy conversion efficiency, emissions rates) of future electricity generating plants are as 

specified in the AEO2009 Reference Case, as are the prospects for natural gas supply. 

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by 

fuel type, that result for each trial standard level (TSL), as well as changes in commercial sector 

electricity and natural gas consumption. 

The technical support document (TSD) for DOE’s notice of proposed rulemaking 

(NOPR) covered conventional cooking products (i.e., cooktops and ovens), microwave oven 

energy factor (EF), microwave oven standby power consumption, and commercial clothes 

washers (CCW).2

 DOE has already completed its standards rulemaking for conventional 

cooking products and microwave oven EF and has published both a final rule3

 and corresponding 

TSD.4 This chapter presents information and results pertaining solely to CCWs. The impact of 

more-efficient equipment on microwave oven standby power will be addressed in a subsequent 

TSD. 

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS 

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in 

the analysis of energy efficiency standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well 

a

 For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA0581(2003), March, 2003. 

b

 DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any 

modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run 

under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMSBT (BT is DOE=s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS-BT 

was previously called NEMS-BRS. 

EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 66.2
known and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, 

the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various 

energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of 

the effects of energy-efficiency standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to 

estimate marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of efficiency 

standards than considering only average effects. 

The utility impact analysis uses the assumptions of the AEO2009 and treats cooking 

product, microwave oven, and clothes washer efficiency standards as variations in policy. The 

effect of the policy is calculated as the difference between the AEO2009 Reference Case and 

each proposed standard case. Because the implementation of standards reduces total natural gas 

demand by less than one percent in any given year, its effect cannot be detected directly in the 

simulations. Therefore, DOE modeled larger reductions in demand and interpolated results for 

the TSLs. DOE assumed the effects to be linear within the range of interpolation. This method 

is discussed in more detail below and in Appendix 14A. 

DOE was unable to consider High and Low Economic Growth Cases for AEO2009 as 

EIA did not generate these economic growth cases for the AEO2009, April Release. For past 

AEO releases, the High Economic Growth Case assumes higher projected growth rates for 

population, labor force, and labor productivity, resulting in lower predicted inflation and interest 

rates, and higher aggregate economic growth, relative to the reference case. The opposite is true 

for the Low Economic Growth Case. 

14.3 METHOD 

DOE used the national energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (Chapter 

11) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be 

required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger 

than the highest efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results 

corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher use reduction levels in NEMSBT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the 

results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard. A detailed 

description of the interpolation method is given in Appendix 14A. 

Policy runs are executed by reducing electricity and natural gas consumption in the 

NEMS-BT Residential and Commercial Demand Modules. Energy use reductions are applied to 

the residential cooking end use for cooking products and microwave ovens and commercial 

water heating end use for clothes washers. The savings are then divided among U.S. Census 

divisions. All fuels are considered simultaneously, however the residential and commercial 

TSLs are run separately using NEMS-BT. 

Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the residential 

cooking products and microwave ovens and commercial clothes washers energy-efficiency 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 66.2
standards analysis extend to the year 2043. It is not feasible to extend the forecast period of 

NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method for 

extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem reasonable to make simple 

linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could be 

contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by extrapolations of those outputs 

could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal emissions factors. An analysis of 

various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond the scope of this work, 

and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 

2030 are simple replications of year 2030 results. While these may seem unreasonable in some 

instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case 

in general, the implicit assumption is that the regulatory environment does not deviate from the 

current known situation during the extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced 

with date-certain introduction are included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results 

wherever they appear, they are shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results. 

14.4 RESULTS 

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity, 

and residential-sector consumption. Results are for all TSLs presented in five-year increments to 

year 2030, including High and Low Growth cases for just the proposed TSL. Beyond year 2030, 

an extrapolation to 2043 for each proposed TSL represents a simple replication of the year 2030 

results. 

The results from the AEO2009 Reference Case are shown in Table 14.4.1. 

DOE analyzed a total of five TSLs for commercial clothes washers. The reference case 

results for each TSL are presented in Tables 14.4.2 through 14.4.18, respectively. The results 

from proposed standards for commercial clothes washers are presented in Tables 14.2.2 through 

14.2.6. Each table shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 14.3 for 

total U.S. electricity generation and installed capacity. 

Commercial clothes washers save natural gas for all five TSLs compared to the AEO2009 

Reference Case. The natural savings predicted by the National Impacts Analysis (NIA) Model 

range from 0.0 to 0.2 percent of total commercial natural gas consumption by year 2030. The 

savings from electricity are less than 0.0 percent of total commercial electricity consumption for 

all five TSLs. 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 66.2
 

 

 

Table 14.4.1 AEO2009 Reference Case Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1 

Electricity Sales (TWh)2 1359.0 1403.0 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 

Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 

Other (Quads)3 1.88 1.77 

2015 

1407.0 

5.21 

1.74 

4.94 

1.65 

2020 

1477.0 

5.26 

1.72 

4.99 

1.63 

2025 

1571.0 

5.32 

1.70 

5.04 

1.61 

2030 

1661.0 

5.28 

1.69 

5.00 

1.60 

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption 1 

Electricity Sales (TWh)2 1275.0 1402.0 

Natural Gas (EJ) 3.26 3.45 

Other (EJ) 0.99 0.85 

Natural Gas (Quads) 3.09 3.27 

Other (Quads)3 0.94 0.81 

1507.0 

3.47 

0.82 

3.29 

0.78 

1620.0 

3.50 

0.80 

3.32 

0.76 

1742.0 

3.63 

0.81 

3.44 

0.77 

1863.0 

3.71 

0.81 

3.52 

0.77 

Total U.S. Electric Generation 4 

Coal (TWh) 2014.0 2022.0 

Gas (TWh) 753.0 775.0 

Petroleum (TWh) 123.0 56.0 

Nuclear (TWh) 782.0 809.0 

Renewables (TWh) 357.0 468.0 

Total (TWh)5 4029.00 4130.00 

2138.0 

647.0 

47.0 

831.0 

645.0 

4308.00 

2198.0 

714.0 

49.0 

876.0 

707.0 

4544.00 

2203.0 

908.0 

49.0 

881.0 

771.0 

4812.00 

2305.0 

979.0 

50.0 

890.0 

797.0 

5021.00 

Installed Generating Capacity 6 

Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 

Other Fossil (GW)7 438.9 470.5 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 

Total (GW)8 952.3 1030.2 

331.0 

443.2 

104.1 

171.1 

1049.4 

333.3 

451.8 

110.3 

176.1 

1071.5 

333.9 

499.4 

110.3 

182.3 

1125.9 

344.6 

542.4 

110.0 

188.3 

1185.3 

1

Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2009: Energy Consumption, Residential 

2

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Electricity Sales by Sector 

3

Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy 

4

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Electric Generators and Cogenerators 

5

Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators 

6

Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2009: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability 

7

Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators 

8

Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 66.2
Table 14.4.2 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 LBNL Stimulus Reference Case 

2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,199 1,275 1,402 1,507 1,620 1,742 1,863 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 

Natural Gas (EJ) 3.47 3.26 3.45 3.47 3.50 3.63 3.71 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Other (EJ) 1.03 0.99 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.81 0.81 Other (EJ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Natural Gas (Quads) 3.29 3.09 3.27 3.29 3.32 3.44 3.52 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other (Quads) 0.98 0.94 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.77 Other (Quads) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,975 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Gas (TWh) 646 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Petroleum (TWh) 119 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 764 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (TWh) 364 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (TWh) 3,868 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.9 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Other Fossil (GW) 414.3 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (GW) 100.6 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 96.2 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 925.0 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 66.2
Table 14.4.3 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 LBNL Stimulus Reference Case 

2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,199 1,275 1,402 1,507 1,620 1,742 1,863 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 

Natural Gas (EJ) 3.47 3.26 3.45 3.47 3.50 3.63 3.71 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Other (EJ) 1.03 0.99 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.81 0.81 Other (EJ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Natural Gas (Quads) 3.29 3.09 3.27 3.29 3.32 3.44 3.52 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other (Quads) 0.98 0.94 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.77 Other (Quads) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,975 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Gas (TWh) 646 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Petroleum (TWh) 119 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 764 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (TWh) 364 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (TWh) 3,868 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.9 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Other Fossil (GW) 414.3 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (GW) 100.6 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 96.2 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 925.0 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 66.2
Table 14.4.4 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 LBNL Stimulus Reference Case 

2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,199 1,275 1,402 1,507 1,620 1,742 1,863 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 

Natural Gas (EJ) 3.47 3.26 3.45 3.47 3.50 3.63 3.71 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other (EJ) 1.03 0.99 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.81 0.81 Other (EJ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Natural Gas (Quads) 3.29 3.09 3.27 3.29 3.32 3.44 3.52 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other (Quads) 0.98 0.94 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.77 Other (Quads) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,975 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Gas (TWh) 646 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 

Petroleum (TWh) 119 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 764 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (TWh) 364 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (TWh) 3,868 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.9 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Other Fossil (GW) 414.3 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (GW) 100.6 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 96.2 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 925.0 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 66.2
Table 14.4.5 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 LBNL Stimulus Reference Case 

2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,199 1,275 1,402 1,507 1,620 1,742 1,863 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 

Natural Gas (EJ) 3.47 3.26 3.45 3.47 3.50 3.63 3.71 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other (EJ) 1.03 0.99 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.81 0.81 Other (EJ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Natural Gas (Quads) 3.29 3.09 3.27 3.29 3.32 3.44 3.52 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other (Quads) 0.98 0.94 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.77 Other (Quads) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,975 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Gas (TWh) 646 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 

Petroleum (TWh) 119 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 764 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (TWh) 364 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (TWh) 3,868 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.9 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Other Fossil (GW) 414.3 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (GW) 100.6 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 96.2 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 925.0 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 66.2
Table 14.4.6 Commercial Clothes Washer Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 LBNL Stimulus Reference Case 

2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Commercial Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,199 1,275 1,402 1,507 1,620 1,742 1,863 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 

Natural Gas (EJ) 3.47 3.26 3.45 3.47 3.50 3.63 3.71 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other (EJ) 1.03 0.99 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.81 0.81 Other (EJ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Natural Gas (Quads) 3.29 3.09 3.27 3.29 3.32 3.44 3.52 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other (Quads) 0.98 0.94 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.77 Other (Quads) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,975 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Gas (TWh) 646 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 

Petroleum (TWh) 119 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 764 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (TWh) 364 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (TWh) 3,868 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.9 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Other Fossil (GW) 414.3 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (GW) 100.6 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 96.2 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 925.0 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

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REFERENCES 

1	 U.S. Department of Energy-Energy Information Administration. An Updated Annual Energy 

Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and 

Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook, April, 2009. Washington, 

DC. SR/OIAF/2009-03. 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/stimulus/pdf/sroiaf(2009)03.pdf> 

2	 U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Technical 

Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer Products and Commercial and 

Industrial Equipment: Residential Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Cooking Products, and 

Commercial Clothes Washers, September, 2008. Washington, DC. 

<http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/home_appl_tsd.html> 

3	 U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Energy 

Conservation Standards for Certain Consumer Products (Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, 

Microwave Ovens, and Electric and Gas Kitchen Ranges and Ovens) and for Certain 

Commercial and Industrial Equipment (Commercial Clothes Washers); Final Rule. Federal 

Register, 2009. 74(66): pp. 16040-16096. 

4	 U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Technical 

Support Document: Energy Efficiency Program for Consumer Products and Commercial and 

Industrial Equipment: Residential Dishwashers, Dehumidifiers, Cooking Products, and 

Commercial Clothes Washers, March, 2009. Washington, DC. 

<http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/cooking_products_final_rul 

e_tsd.html> 

14-10
 

EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 66.2