AQUACULTURE OUTLOOK                                            October 3, 1997
            Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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AQUACULTURE OUTLOOK, a supplement to Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Monthly, 
is published twice a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  LDP-AQS-6.

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Catfish Production at New High

Farmer sales of catfish to processors are forecast to reach 520
million pounds in 1997, 10 percent above the previous year and
the first time that production will be over the half billion
pound mark.  In the first 8 months of 1997, catfish deliveries to
processing plants totaled 355 million pounds, 12 percent higher
than in the same period in 1996.  This will be the third
consecutive year of higher sales following a decline of
approximately 20 million pounds in 1994.  In 1998, production
growth is expected to slow due to lower fish inventories. 
However, growers should benefit from stronger farm prices and
further declines in feed costs.  For calendar year 1998 soybean
meal prices are likely to average about 25 percent lower, but
corn prices are expected to average slightly higher than in 1997.

At the beginning of July, growers in the four major producing
States (Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, and Louisiana) reported
holding larger inventories of broodfish and foodsize fish than a
year earlier.  However, the growers also reported that holdings
of stocker and fingerling fish were lower than the previous year.
Broodfish numbers were only slightly higher than the previous
year with growth in Mississippi and Arkansas offsetting declines
in Louisiana.   As the catfish industry continues to expand and
more specialized firms enter the industry, the role of
grower-held broodstock may decline.  If the advantages of using
specially developed strains of catfish become apparent, more
growers are likely to purchase stockers or fingerlings from these
firms as opposed having their own broodfish and hatchery
operations.

As of July 1, 1997, grower inventories of foodsize fish were
larger  than the previous year in all three size classes.  The
total number of fish was up 8 percent, but the increases were
concentrated in large and medium foodsize fish.  The number of
small foodsize fish was up 4 percent, but this was only half the
percentage increase in inventory that occurred between 1995 and
1996.  The foodsize fish held in inventory as of July 1 have
already achieved market size and will represent the majority of
fish going to processing plants through the end of 1997.  The
overall increase in foodsize fish inventory and the increased
inventory of finished product held by processors are expected to
allow processor sales to remain considerably above the previous
year with little or no upward pressure on prices at either the
farmer or wholesale levels.

After steady growth over the last 4 years, the numbers of
stockers and fingerlings held by growers in the four major States
were down 10 and 3 percent, respectively.  This downturn is
expected to reduce the poundage of fish available for processing
in first- and second- quarter 1998 from the poundage processed in
1997.  The combination of lower poundage of foodsize fish
available and a continued expansion in the economy is expected to
mean higher prices for both growers and processors.  The exact
poundage of fish available for processing in first-half 1998 will
depend on a number of factors.  Total fish numbers will be
affected by mortality rates for stockers and fingerlings over the
next 6 months from diseases, stress from changing weather, and
predation.  The growth these fish attain depends on the severity
of fall and winter weather, which affects feeding rates and
growth.  Also, the amount of fish sold to processing plants over
the last 4 months of 1997 will affect the numbers of larger fish
retained in ponds going into the new year.

Farm Prices Down for 1997; Forecast To Strengthen in 1998
After averaging between 78 and 79 cents a pound in 1994 and 1995,
farm prices for catfish dropped to 77 cents in 1996 and are
expected to fall to 72 cents in 1997 as production rises and
sales increase.  In 1998, farm prices are forecast to rise as
supplies of available foodsize fish tighten and the economy
continues to expand.  Any increases in catfish prices will be
tempered by large supplies of pork and poultry in 1998.  However,
along with an increase in prices, catfish growers may also
benefit from continued favorable soybean meal prices through
first-half 1998.

Pond Acreage Expands Slightly

After increasing almost 15,000 acres between July 1995 and July
1996, the total pond acreage for the four major producing States
was 164,000 in first-half 1997, up only 1 percent from the
previous year.  With falling farm prices in 1997, any additions
to pond acreage are expected to be small.  At midyear growers in
the four major States indicated they had about 4,500 acres of
ponds under construction, while 5,600 acres were under
renovation.  While lower grower prices in 1997 tempered expansion
plans, the forecast higher prices in 1998 and continued low feed
costs are expected to encourage further pond building in
second-half 1997.

Farmer Revenues Edge Higher in 1997

With deliveries of fish to processing plants in 1997 projected at
around 520 million pounds and prices received by farmers likely
to average close to 72 cents a pound, farm revenues for catfish
are expected to reach a record high.  The forecast total of about
$375 million slightly surpasses the previous record of $365
million set in 1996.  While farm prices have declined in 1997
compared to 1996, lower feed prices have helped boost grower
returns.   In previous years returns had been squeezed by rising
feed costs.

Processor Sales Higher

Over the first 8 months of 1997, processors sold 179 million
pounds of catfish products, 11 percent more than in the same
period in 1996.  Annual sales for 1997 are forecast to approach
260 million pounds and prices are predicted to average close to
$2.25 a pound, down about 5 percent from 1996.  In 1997,
processor revenues are expected to reach a record $585 million as
higher volume offsets lower average prices. 

At the end of August, processors reported holding 9.7 million
pounds of finished products in inventory, 1 percent less than a
year earlier.  This level of inventory is expected to keep farm
prices around 72 cents per pound and below a year earlier for the
remainder of 1997.  Even if inventories increase slightly above a
year earlier, processors are not expected to have enough supply
to keep farm prices from rising as supplies of foodsize fish
tighten in first-half 1998.

The higher processor revenues in 1997 have been due to increased
sales volume as the weighted average price for fresh and frozen
catfish products over the first 8 months of 1997 was $2.38 per
pound, down 4 percent from the same period in 1996.  The average
wholesale price declined for every product category.  Sales of
fresh catfish products (whole, fillets, and others) were all
higher in the January - August period than a year earlier.  For
frozen catfish products, sales of filleted and other products
rose, while sales of whole catfish fell 2 percent.  Sales of
processed catfish products are expected to slow seasonally in the
fourth quarter but remain well above a year earlier.  In 1998 the
growth in processor sales is expected to be smaller as grower
supplies tighten and prices increase.  Processor prices are
expected to increase as growth in the overall economy and
especially in the restaurants and food service businesses should
allow processors some latitude to increase their prices as farm
prices rise.

Trout Sales Reach $78 Million

The USDA's September trout report showed 1997 (September 1, 1996
to August 31, 1997) sales of trout products at $78 million, up $6
million from the previous year.   Much of the increase can be
attributed to the inclusion of Connecticut, Massachusetts, and
West Virginia in the survey for the first time.  Although there
is no way to tell the exact amount of sales that can be
attributed to these three States, their inclusion in the survey
represents 48 additional producers and probably $4 million in
added sales.  The increase in total sales was from higher sales
value of foodsize fish and stockers, as the value of fingerling
and egg sales declined.

A 6-percent increase in the quantity of foodsize trout sold was
the sole reason behind the over $3 million increase in the value
of foodsize fish sales, as the average price remained at $1.06 a
pound, the same as in 1996.  Idaho, North Carolina, and
California, the three largest producers, all had increases in
sales volume, but only North Carolina and California showed
increases in the value of fish sold.  Idaho's volume was up 5
percent in 1997, but the price of foodsize fish fell a nickel
from 1996 to only $0.75 a pound.  The value increases in North
Carolina and California were complemented by higher sales in
Pennsylvania and the addition of three new States to the survey. 
The average price for foodsize trout increased in many of the
smaller producing States, offsetting the decline in Idaho.  This
may indicate that the demand for trout by smaller buyers has held
up better than the demand from large grocery chains or food
service businesses.  This is likely due to continued good demand
at restaurants brought on by the good economic conditions over
the last year.

Following a 15-percent jump in 1996, sales of stockers rose 48
percent in 1997 to $11 million.   Much of the increase resulted
from higher prices, as the volume of sales rose 20 percent.  With
sales falling in Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania,
normally the top three States, the increase can be attributed to
the inclusion of the three northeast States.  These States likely
added $3 million to the increase from 1996 to 1997.

The higher sales of foodsize and stocker trout in 1997 result
from strong fingerling and egg sales in 1996.  However, in 1997
sales of fingerlings and eggs declined, which may signal a
production slowdown in 1998.  After rising strongly in 1996, the
volume and value of fingerling sales dropped sharply in 1997 to
below those of 1995.

Exports of trout products also declined in the first half of
1997.  Egg exports fell 20 percent, as lower sales to Canada were
not fully offset by increased sales to Asia.   Total exports of
trout products (fresh or frozen) declined to $1.2 million, down
about $400,000, as sales of frozen trout products to Japan
declined in response to falling prices for U.S. wild harvest
salmon and strong promotional efforts for farmed salmon from
Chile and Norway.

Tilapia Imports Increase 34 Percent

In  first-half 1997, tilapia imports increased 34 percent from
first-half 1996.  Almost all the increase came from larger
shipments from Taiwan and Costa Rica.  However, the value of
tilapia imports rose only 21 percent to $24.6 million, as average
prices fell a dime to 99 cents a pound.  Average prices vary
considerably among the three product categories: Whole frozen
fish averaged only 64 cents a pound, while fresh fillets were
$2.21, and frozen fillets were $2.05 a pound.

On a liveweight equivalent basis, the United States now uses
approximately 90 to 100 million pounds of tilapia per year.  In
first-half 1997, U.S. tilapia imports on a liveweight basis were
just over 38 million pounds, up 10 million from the same period
in 1996.  On a calendar year basis, liveweight tilapia imports
are forecast at 75 to 80 million pounds.  Added to this is the 15
to 20 million pounds of tilapia produced domestically.

With the average import price expected to continue to decline in
the long run, the popularity of tilapia as a menu item at
restaurants and as a regular offering at supermarkets is likely
to increase.   Over the long-term,  filleted products are
expected to become a larger share of total imports with countries
in Central and South America supplying more.  Taiwan remains the
largest supplier, accounting for 77 percent of all the imports in
first-half 1997.  While Taiwan is the dominate supplier of frozen
whole fish, it did not ship any fresh fillets to the United
States, and was second to Indonesia in the frozen fillet market. 
Imports of whole frozen fish have grown steadily, but imports of
filleted tilapia products have grown even faster.  Larger future
imports of filleted products would mirror what has happened for
other fish species.  To supply high volume food service
businesses, producers have had to supply uniform filleted
products.

Salmon Imports Rise 12 Percent

During first-half 1997, the United States imported 76 million
pounds of Atlantic salmon, 12 percent more than in 
first-half 1996.  The value of imports rose 19 percent to almost $180
million.  Based on first-half imports, continued strength in the
domestic economy, and a somewhat smaller domestic wild salmon
harvest, Atlantic salmon imports are projected to reach 
155-165 million pounds in 1997 with a value of $355-375 million.

Unlike previous years, the large increase in Atlantic salmon
imports has not led to declining prices.  Imported Atlantic
salmon averaged $2.38 a pound in first-half 1997, up about 14
cents from a year earlier.  Imports of filleted salmon continue
to gain market share, increasing 30 percent in first-half 1997. 
Atlantic salmon fillets (fresh and frozen) accounted for 29
percent of all Atlantic salmon imports, compared with 16 percent
in first-half 1996.

The 1997 wild harvest of salmon, while large on a historical
basis, has been smaller than the recent record-setting harvests. 
With a smaller domestic catch, U.S. fresh salmon imports rose 6
percent and their average price went up 14 percent to $2.42.  The
chief beneficiary of this increase was Canada, whose fresh salmon
exports to the U.S. market rose 40 percent.  The Canadian share
of the fresh Atlantic salmon market rose greatly as imports from
Chile, Canada's major competitor, were down sharply.

Although Chile remained the dominant supplier of filleted salmon
products to the U.S. market, Canada again expanded its share of
this market.  After accounting for less than 200,000 pounds or
only 1 percent of the imports of filleted Atlantic salmon in
first-half 1996, Canada's shipments rose to 2.3 million in
first-half 1997, or 11 percent of first-half imports.

With increases in both the fresh and fillet markets in 1997,
Canada was again the largest supplier of Atlantic salmon
products.  In first-half 1996, large increases in filleted
product exports had allowed Chile to surpass Canada as the
leading supplier to the United States.

Quantity and Value of Shrimp Imports Up in 1997

After falling in first-half 1996, the quantity and value of
shrimp imports rose 3 and 12 percent, respectively, in 
first-half1997 compared to a year earlier.  The increases bring
imports to near 1995 levels.  With a strong domestic economy 
encouraging consumption, especially in food service establishments and
restaurants, shrimp imports are expected to remain above a year
earlier through the remainder of 1997 and into first-half 1998. 
The major factors influencing imports over the short term will be
the outlook for domestic wild harvest, changes in Japanese demand
in the wake of the food-based illnesses that have occurred over
the last half year, and the impact of  El Nino on shrimp
production in South and Central America and Southeast Asia.  In
the past,  El Nino conditions have actually helped shrimp farmers
in countries like Ecuador by increasing the numbers of post
larvae shrimp in nearby waters.  Farmers can run their operations
using post-larvae shrimp from on-shore hatcheries, but the
survival and growth rates from wild post-larvae are usually
better.

During first-half 1997 almost all the increase in the quantity of
shrimp imported came from higher imports of prepared or preserved
shrimp.  Frozen shrimp imports were only slightly higher and
fresh shrimp imports fell more than 50 percent.  Imports of
prepared shrimp have increased over the last several years as
exporting countries attempt to capture additional value by
processing more shrimp.  This is especially true in areas with
extensive farming operations, where farms harvest year-round to
fully use processing plants.  However, as these plants are
upgraded to meet stricter inspection and health standards,
processors are expected to turn to further processed products to
increase revenues.  HACCP standards go into effect on December
18, 1997 for products exported to the United States.  Over the
last 2 years the value of imported prepared or preserved shrimp
has risen 63 percent, with shipments from Thailand and Indonesia
showing strong growth. 

While there are no hard data on the quantity and value of
farm-raised shrimp imports, the increases in shipments from
Ecuador, Thailand, and Indonesia (three of the largest farmed
shrimp producers) indicate that the percentage of total shrimp
imports coming from aquaculture operations is likely rising.  In
first-half 1997, the three countries accounted for 57 percent of
the total quantity of imported shrimp and 64 percent of the total
value.

Crawfish Imports and Exports Up

The pattern of crawfish imports (mostly frozen crawfish meat from
China) in 1997 is likely to be very different from 1996.   Over
the first half of 1997, crawfish meat imports totaled about
590,000 pounds, up 328 percent from first-half 1996.  However, in
1996 almost all the crawfish imports occurred in the second half
of the year and imports for all of 1996 totaled 2.8 million
pounds.   In 1997, the imports are expected to follow a reverse
pattern.  A recent finding  by the International Trade Commission
that Chinese crawfish meats were being dumped on the U.S. market
led to the imposition of countervailing duties on imports of
crawfish meat from China, although no countervailing duties were
placed on imports of whole crawfish. As a result,  imports from
China should be greatly reduced in the second half of 1997 and in
1998.

After falling in the last 3 years,  U.S. exports of whole
crawfish to the Scandinavian countries rebounded somewhat in
first-half 1997.  Exports totaled 5.7 million pounds and were
valued at $10.1 million.  While this is more than double the
value of exports in first-half 1996, it still is well below the
$13.2 million shipped in first-half 1994.  The crawfish export
market is highly specialized calling for large whole crawfish to
go primarily to Sweden within a 2- to 3-month period.

Domestic production of crawfish (basically Louisiana) in 1996 was
44.4 million pounds liveweight, down 20 percent from the previous
year.    Farmed crawfish production in Louisiana came from
approximately 111,300 acres of ponds.  There is an additional
wild harvest from swamp areas throughout the State.  In 1996, the
wild harvest amounted to 20 million pounds

U.S. Oyster and Clam Exports Higher, Mussel and Oyster Imports Up

U.S. mollusk exporters had mixed success in first-half 1997.  The
quantity of oyster and clam exports rose 45 and 9 percent,
respectively, but exports of mussels plummeted 64 percent.  
While the unit price of oysters declined, the average price for
exported clams increased.   The quantity and value of oyster
product exports to Asia have been on the increase and in
first-half 1997 were more than double those of first-half 1993.  
After falling in 1994, clam exports have risen for the last 3
years with most of the increase going to Asian markets.  Oyster
and clam exports are forecast to continue to grow as demand
increases for these speciality products in Asian markets.  U.S.
mussel exports are a fairly small market and with the growth in
domestic demand, mussel exports fell to only $330,000 in
first-half 1997.

During the first 6 months of 1997, U.S. imports of mollusks
(oysters, clams, and mussels) totaled 21.6 million pounds valued
at $29.3 million, an increase in both quantity and value.  Most
of the volume increase came from higher imports of mussels, up 15
percent.   This is the fifth consecutive year that imports of
mussels have risen.  Over this period the value of imports has
risen from just less than $4 million in first-half 1992 to $12.3
million in 1997.  The chief source of this growth in mussel
imports has been Canada, especially  Prince Edward Island and
some of the other Maritime provinces.

Oyster imports, while slightly higher in first-half 1997, have
been trending downward.  Over the last 4 years they have fallen
38 percent.  Imported oysters have faced strong competition from
domestic farmed and wild harvest production.  Also, oysters are
often consumed raw and have suffered from incidences of
contamination.  Food safety experts have cautioned people with
certain health problems to avoid consuming oysters.  Researchers
are now looking at different methods, such as irradiation and
various heat treatments, to increase the safety of oyster
products.

Imports of scallops also declined in the first half of 1997,
mainly due to about a one-third decline in the value of imports
from China.  China's scallop products are mostly smaller farmed
bay scallops.  The Chinese bay scallop industry has increased
very rapidly in the last decade, and with rising domestic
incomes, more production is being used in China's own markets.

Ornamental Fish Exports Rise, Imports Fall

U.S. exports of ornamental fish were valued at $8.4 million in
first-half 1997, up 1  percent from the same period in 1996. 
This is a slight reversal from the large drops of the last 2
years, but exports remain 17 percent below the $10.1 million
recorded in first-half 1994.  Shipments to the major markets were
mixed, with increasing exports to Canada, Mexico, and Hong Kong
offsetting falling exports to Japan.  After rising the last 2
years, exports to the EU were basically flat with higher exports
to the United Kingdom and France canceled out by lower exports to
the Netherlands and Germany.  With Mexico's economy continuing to
gather strength, exports to there should remain strong.  U.S.
growers will likely face strong competition in Japan, the largest
market, especially from producers in Thailand with its recently
devalued currency.

Imports of ornamental fish during the first 6 months of 1997 fell
8 percent to $25.9 million, well below those of the last 2 years. 
 The lower shipments were spread over most of the major exporting
countries except Thailand and Hong Kong.   Exports were down from
most all countries in the Western Hemisphere.  In second-half
1997, imports from Thailand should remain strong as the
devaluation of the baht lowers the relative cost of its products.

Aquaculture Expands as Seafood Source

In the 1990's, U.S. per capita seafood consumption has remained
flat, stuck between 14.8 and 15.2 pounds of edible meat per year. 
 So any growth in total domestic seafood consumption has come
from increasing population.  Yet during this period consumption
of aquaculture products has continued to rise.  All aquaculture
production is not increasing at the same rate,  but the trend has
definitely been upward.  The most prominent examples are the long
term growth in the domestic catfish industry (production up 31
percent between 1990 and 1996), and the increasing production of
farm-raised Atlantic salmon and tilapia.  With year-round
production, uniform product sizes, and long term declining real
prices, as is the case for red meats and poultry, aquacultural
production has the characteristics that most seafood wholesalers
and retailers want.

The United States has one of the world's largest fishing
industries, yet if catfish were a wild harvest product, it would
rank as one of the top species.  Catfish production on a volume
basis would rank behind only pollock, menhaden, salmon, and
possibly cod.  On a value basis, catfish would rank fourth behind
only shrimp, salmon, and crabs.
Principal contributor:Dave Harvey--DJHARVEY@Econ.Ag.GOV\202-219-0839
After Nov. 1, 1997--202-694-5177
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