Survivability of Acci

Part 121 U.S. Air Car

1983 Through 2000	

Safety Report

NTSB/SR-01/01

March 2001

PB2001-917001

Notation 7322

National Transportation Safety Board

490 L'Enfant Plaza, SW

Washington, D.C. 20594

http://www.ntsb.gov

Safety Report

Survivability of Accidents Involving

Part 121 U.S. Air Carrier Operations,

1983 Through 2000

NTSB/SR-01/01

PB2001-917001 National Transportation Safety Board

Notation 7322 490 LíEnfant Plaza, S.W.

Adopted March 5, 2001 Washington, D.C. 20594

E PLURIBUS UNUM

NATIONAL TRA SPORTATION

BOAR D

SAFE T Y

N
National Transportation Safety Board. Survivability of Accidents Involving Part 121 U.S. Air Carrier

Operations, 1983 Through 2000. Safety Report NTSB/SR-01/01. Washington, DC: NTSB, 2001.

Abstract: Despite the growing demands on the U.S. aviation system, the system continues to maintain a

high level of safety. There are two ways to prevent fatalities in air travel: by preventing accidents, and by

protecting aircraft occupants in the accidents that do occur. A reduction in accident rates provides an

indication of the success of accident prevention; examining occupant survivability can indicate the positive

results from occupant protection. The importance of examining occupant survivability in aviation

accidents is twofold: (1) it can help to dispel a public perception that most air carrier accidents are not

survivable, and (2) it can identify things that can be done to increase survivability in the accidents that do

occur.

The National Transportation Safety Board frequently receives inquiries from the general public and

Government agencies concerning the survivability of airplane accidents. Although the Safety Boardís

Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data for U.S. Air Carrier Operations summarizes the degree of

occupant injury by aircraft damage, the annual publication has not, in the past, analyzed the issue of

survivability in detail. Therefore, the purpose of this safety report is to examine aircraft occupant

survivability for air carrier operations in the United States. The Safety Board examined only air carrier

operations performed under Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 121 because the majority of the

Boardís survival factors investigations are conducted in connection with accidents involving Part 121

carriers. Therefore, more survivability data are available for Part 121 operations than are available for Part

135 and Part 91 (general aviation) operations. This report also examines cause-of-death information for

the most serious of the Part 121 accidents; that is, those accidents involving fire, at least one serious injury

or fatality, and either substantial aircraft damage or complete destruction.

The National Transportation Safety Board is an independent Federal agency dedicated to promoting aviation, railroad, highway, marine,

pipeline, and hazardous materials safety. Established in 1967, the agency is mandated by Congress through the Independent Safety Board

Act of 1974 to investigate transportation accidents, determine the probable causes of the accidents, issue safety recommendations, study

transportation safety issues, and evaluate the safety effectiveness of government agencies involved in transportation. The Safety Board

makes public its actions and decisions through accident reports, safety studies, special investigation reports, safety recommendations, and

statistical reviews.

Recent publications are available in their entirety on the Web at <http://www.ntsb.gov>. Other information about available publications also

may be obtained from the Web site or by contacting:

National Transportation Safety Board

Public Inquiries Branch, RE-51

490 LíEnfant Plaza, S.W.

Washington, D.C. 20594

(800) 877-6799 or (202) 314-6551

Safety Board publications may be purchased, by individual copy or by subscription, from the National Technical Information Service. To

purchase this publication, order report number PB2001-917001 from:

National Technical Information Service

5285 Port Royal Road

Springfield, Virginia 22161

(800) 553-6847 or (703) 605-6000

The Independent Safety Board Act, as codified at 49 U.S.C. Section 1154(b), precludes the admission into evidence or use of Board reports

related to an incident or accident in a civil action for damages resulting from a matter mentioned in the report. 
iii Safety Report

Contents

Acronyms ................................................................................................................................................. iv

Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. v

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1

Aviation Accident Survivability ....................................................................................................... 5

Discussion ................................................................................................................................................ 19

Findings ................................................................................................................................................... 21

Cover: The accident of this McDonnell Douglas MD-82, which occurred on June 1, 1999, involved fire and 

substantial airplane damage. Of the 145 occupants on board, 134 survived the accident.
iv Safety Report

Acronyms

CAA Civil Aviation Authority of the United Kingdom

CAMI Civil Aeromedical Institute of the FAA

CFR Code of Federal Regulations

ETSC European Transport Safety Council

FAA Federal Aviation Administration

NTSB National Transportation Safety Board
v Safety Report

Executive Summary

Passenger enplanements in the United States more than doubled in the 16 years

following 1983. According to recent Federal Aviation Administration forecasts, this

growth is expected to continue, approaching 1 billion enplanements by the year 2010 (an

additional 53-percent increase). Despite the growing demands on the U.S. aviation

system, the system continues to maintain its high level of safety. The accident rate for

commercial aircraft has remained about the same for the past two decades. If the accident

rate continues, however, increased traffic projected over the next 10 years will be

accompanied by a commensurate increase in the number of aircraft accidents. To prevent

this from occurring, Government agencies are working with industry to reduce the rate of

accidents.

There are two ways to prevent fatalities in air travel: by preventing accidents, and

by protecting aircraft occupants in the accidents that do occur. A reduction in accident

rates provides an indication of the success of accident prevention; examining occupant

survivability can indicate the positive results from occupant protection. The importance of

examining occupant survivability in aviation accidents is twofold: (1) it can help to dispel

a public perception that most air carrier accidents are not survivable, and (2) it can identify

things that can be done to increase survivability in the accidents that do occur.

The Safety Board frequently receives inquiries from the general public and

Government agencies concerning the survivability of airplane accidents. Although the

Safety Boardís Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data for U.S. Air Carrier Operations

summarizes the degree of occupant injury by aircraft damage, the annual publication has

not, in the past, analyzed the issue of survivability in detail. Therefore, the purpose of this

safety report is to examine aircraft occupant survivability for air carrier operations in the

United States. The Safety Board examined only air carrier operations performed under

Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 121 because the majority of the Boardís

survival factors investigations are conducted in connection with accidents involving Part

121 carriers. Therefore, more survivability data are available for Part 121 operations than

are available for Part 135 and Part 91 (general aviation) operations. This report also

examines cause-of-death information for the most serious of the Part 121 accidents; that

is, those accidents involving fire, at least one serious injury or fatality, and either

substantial aircraft damage or complete destruction.

1 Safety Report

Introduction

Passenger enplanements in the United States more than doubled in the 16 years

following 1983. This growth is expected to continue, approaching 1 billion enplanements

by the year 2010 (an additional 53-percent increase).1 Commensurate with the increase in

the number of people traveling will be an increase in the miles that air carriers fly. In 1999,

U.S. air carriers flew 6.8 billion miles, a 50-percent increase from 10 years prior. Despite

the growing demands on the U.S. aviation system, the system continues to maintain a high

level of safety. The accident rate for commercial aircraft has remained about the same for

the past two decades. If the accident rate continues, however, increased traffic projected

over the next 10 years will be accompanied by a commensurate increase in the number of

aircraft accidents.2 To prevent this from occurring, Government agencies are working with

industry to reduce the rate of accidents.

In 2000, there were 54 accidents involving U.S. air carrier flights operating under

Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 121; 92 fatalities occurred aboard the

accident aircraft. When the accident rate for 2000 is adjusted for operating hours (0.299

per 100,000 flight hours), it is the same as that for 1999 (0.299) when there were

52 accidents and 11 fatalities aboard accident aircraft, essentially the same for 1998

(0.297) when there were 50 accidents and 0 fatalities aboard accident aircraft, and slightly

lower than 1997 (0.309) when there were 49 accidents and 6 fatalities aboard accident

aircraft (table 1).

In 1996, Part 121 carriers experienced 37 accidents that resulted in 350 fatalities.

Although the 1996 accident rate (0.269 per 100,000 flight hours) was lower than in 2000

(0.299), 1999 (0.299), 1998 (0.297), or 1997 (0.309), the total number of fatalities was

substantially greater because of two severe accidents (Trans World Airlines flight 8003

 and

ValuJet flight 5924) in which 340 occupants were killed.

1 U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, FAA Aerospace Forecasts,

FAA-APO-00-1 (Washington, DC: FAA, 2000) X-13.

2 For example, the Federal Aviation Administrationís Safer Skies initiative with industry that seeks to

reduce the fatal accident rate by 80 percent by the year 2007.

3 National Transportation Safety Board, In-flight Breakup Over the Atlantic Ocean, Trans World

Airlines (TWA) Flight 800, Boeing 747-141, N93119, Near East Moriches, New York, July 17, 1996,

Aviation Accident Report NTSB/AAR-00/03 (Washington, DC: NTSB, 2001).

4 National Transportation Safety Board, In-flight Fire and Impact With Terrain, ValuJet Airlines Flight

592, DC-9-32, N904VJ, Everglades, Near Miami, Florida, May 11, 1996, Aviation Accident Report

NTSB/AAR-97/06 (Washington, DC: NTSB, 1997).
Table 1. Accidents, fatalities, and rates for U.S. air carriers operating under Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Pa

and nonscheduled service (airlines), 1983 through 2000. 

Accidents Fatalities

Accidents per 100,000 

flight hours

Accidents per 

1 million miles flown

Year All Fatal Total Aboard Flight hoursa Miles flowna Departuresa All Fatal All Fatal 

1983 23 4 15 14 7,298,799 3,069,318,000 5,444,374 0.315 0.055 0.0075 0.0013 1984 16 1 4 4 8,165,124 3,428,063,000 5,898,852 0.196 0.012 0.0047 0.0003 1985 21 7 526 525 8,709,894 3,631,017,000 6,306,759 0.241 0.080 0.0058 0.0019 1986b 24 3 8 7 9,976,104 4,017,626,000 7,202,027 0.231 0.020 0.0057 0.0005 

1987b 34 5 232 230 10,645,192 4,360,521,000 7,601,373 0.310 0.038 0.0076 0.0009 1988b 30 3 285 274 11,140,548 4,503,426,000 7,716,061 0.260 0.018 0.0064 0.0004 1989 28 11 278 276 11,274,543 4,605,083,000 7,645,494 0.248 0.098 0.0061 0.0024 1990 24 6 39 12 12,150,116 4,947,832,000 8,092,306 0.198 0.049 0.0049 0.0012 1991 26 4 62c 49 11,780,610 4,824,824,000 7,814,875 0.221 0.034 0.0054 0.0008 

1992 18 4 33 31 12,359,715 5,039,435,000 7,880,707 0.146 0.032 0.0036 0.0008 1993 23 1 1 0 12,706,206 5,249,469,000 8,073,173 0.181 0.008 0.0044 0.0002 1994b 23 4 239 237 13,124,315 5,478,118,000 8,238,306 0.168 0.030 0.0040 0.0007 
1995 36 3 168 162 13,505,257 5,654,069,000 8,457,465 0.267 0.022 0.0064 0.0005 1996 37 5 380 350 13,746,112 5,873,108,000 8,228,810 0.269 0.036 0.0063 0.0009 1997d 49 4 8 6 15,838,109 6,691,693,342 10,313,826 0.309 0.025 0.0073 0.0006 

1998 50 1 1 0 16,821,641 6,741,690,357 10,985,345 0.297 0.006 0.0074 0.0001 1999 52 2 12 11 17,381,999 7,032,971,162 11,092,839 0.299 0.012 0.0074 0.0003 2000e 54 3 92 92 18,040,000 7,134,600,000 11,587,000 0.299 0.017 0.0076 0.0004 

a Flight hours, miles, and departures are compiled by the Federal Aviation Administration.b ìAccidentsî and ìFatalitiesî for this year include a case of suicide/sabotage, but the case is excluded from accident rates for the year. (1986: An accid

involving an aircraft operated by Trans World Airlines resulted in 4 fatalities, all of which occurred aboard. 1987: An accident in San Luis Obispo, Califooperated by Pacific Southwest Airlines resulted in 43 fatalities, all of which occurred aboard. 1988: An accident in Lockerbie, Scotland, involving an aircraft o

World Airways resulted in 270 fatalities, 259 of which occurred aboard. 1994: An accident in Memphis, Tennessee, involving Federal Express resulted in 0 fa

c The 62 total fatalities in 1991 includes 12 persons killed aboard a Skywest commuter aircraft (operating under 14 CFR Part 135) and 22 persons killed a

category airplane (operating under 14 CFR Part 121) when the two aircraft collided.

d Effective March 20, 1997, the data include aircraft with 10 or more passenger seats that formerly conducted scheduled passenger operations under 14 CFR e Data for 2000 are preliminary.

Source: Unless indicated otherwise, data are from the aviation accident database of the National Transportation Safety Board.

Table 1. Accidents, fatalities, and rates for U.S. air carriers operating under Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Pa

and nonscheduled service (airlines), 1983 through 2000. (Continued)

Accidents Fatalities

Accidents per 100,000 

flight hours

Accidents per 

1 million miles flown

Year All Fatal Total Aboard Flight hoursa Miles flowna Departuresa All Fatal All Fatal 
Introduction 4 Safety Report

Fatal accidents such as TWA flight 800, ValuJet flight 592, and EgyptAir flight

9905

 receive extensive media coverage. Nonfatal accidents, however, receive little

coverage. As a result, the public may perceive that most air carrier accidents are not

survivable. In 1992, for example, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) of the United

Kingdom found that people rated aircraft accidents as the least survivable type of

transportation accident. Further, 32.7 percent of the people the CAA surveyed about the

likelihood of accident survival believed that they would be unlikely to survive an aircraft

accident.6

There are two ways to prevent fatalities in air travel: by preventing accidents, and

by protecting aircraft occupants in the accidents that do occur. A reduction in accident

rates provides an indication of the success of accident prevention; examining occupant

survivability can indicate the positive results from occupant protection. The importance of

examining occupant survivability in aviation accidents is twofold: (1) it can help to dispel

a public perception that most air carrier accidents are not survivable; and (2) it can identify

things that can be done to increase survivability in the accidents that do occur.

The Safety Board frequently receives inquiries from the general public and

Government agencies concerning the survivability of airplane accidents. Although the

Safety Boardís Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data for U.S. Air Carrier Operations

summarizes the degree of occupant injury by aircraft damage, the annual publication has

not, in the past, analyzed the issue of survivability in detail. Therefore, the purpose of this

safety report is to examine aircraft occupant survivability for air carrier operations in the

United States. The Safety Board examined only air carrier operations performed under

14 CFR Part 121 because the majority of the Boardís survival factors investigations are

conducted in connection with accidents involving Part 121 carriers. Therefore, more

survivability data are available for Part 121 operations than are available for Part 135 and

Part 91 (general aviation) operations. This report also examines cause-of-death

information for the most serious of the Part 121 accidents.7

5 On October 31, 1999, EgyptAir flight 990, a scheduled international flight from New York to Cairo,

crashed in the Atlantic Ocean about 60 miles south of Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. All 217 occupants

were killed. The accident occurred in international waters, thus Egypt, under Annex 13 to the Convention on

International Civil Aviation, had authority to conduct or delegate the investigation. In accordance with the

standards of the Convention, Egypt requested that the United States conduct the investigation of the

accident; the National Transportation Safety Board, on behalf of the United States, accepted responsibility to

conduct the investigation.

6 P.J. Fennell and H.C. Muir, Passenger Attitudes Towards Airline Safety Information and Comprehension of Safety Briefings and Cards, CAA Paper 92015 (London: Civil Aviation Authority, 1992).

7 In June 1980, the Safety Board produced a similar report for testimony to the House Subcommitte on

Oversight and Review of the Public Works and Transportation Committee of the 96th Congress.
5 Safety Report

Aviation Accident Survivability

Several organizations have attempted to develop general statistics on aviation

accident survivability. The European Transport Safety Council (ETSC) examined the

survivability of accidents worldwide and estimated that 90 percent of aircraft accidents are

survivable (as defined by no passengers are killed) or ìtechnically survivableî (as defined

by at least one occupant survives).8

 On the basis of these definitions, the ETSC estimated

that of the 1,500 people who die annually in air transport accidents, 600 people who

should survive die in survivable accidents. Of these 600, the ETSC further estimated that

330 fatalities result from impact and 270 result from fire-related factors (including smoke)

that occurred after impact. However, the ETSC indicated that ìthese figures are best

estimates, since insufficient detailed accident information is available.î

Researchers at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) examined, in the mid1990s, a selected set of survivable accidents that occurred from 1970 to 1995 in the United

States. Their report was described in the agencyís employee newsletter, the FAA

Intercom.

9

 The researchers found that 68 percent of occupants involved in aircraft

accidents died as a result of injuries sustained during postcrash fires. This number of firerelated fatalities was substantially higher than the ETSC estimates with respect to the

proportion of fatalities from fire. However, not all accidents that occurred during the study

period were included in the FAA analysis.

Congress charges the National Transportation Safety Board with investigating

every civil aviation accident in the United States. An accident is defined as an ìoccurrence

associated with the operation of an aircraft . . . in which any person suffers death or

serious injury, or in which the aircraft receives substantial damageî (49 CFR Part 830.2).

The Safety Board also is responsible for maintaining a database on civil aviation

accidents. The database contains a record for, among others, every accident involving Part

121 air carriers. At the end of each calendar year, the Safety Board releases the data and

analysis of the accident rates for that year (see table 1).

For this report, the Safety Board conducted a review of its aviation

accident/incident database to examine several aspects of occupant survival in aircraft

accidents that occurred during Part 121 operations. The review examined each Part 121

accident from 1983 (the first year of the Boardís current aviation accident database)

through 2000 (the last full year in the database). The numbers of accidents, fatalities, and

survivors for these years are given in table 2.

8 European Transport Safety Council, Increasing the Survival Rate in Aircraft Accidents: Impact

Protection, Fire Survivability, and Evacuation (Brussels, Belgium: ETSC, 1996).

9 ìCAMI [Civil Aeromedical Institute] Helps Flyers Survive Aircraft Accidents,î Headquarters

Intercom March 17 (1998): 1ñ2 (Washington, DC: Federal Aviation Administration). The FAAís results were

also reported by the following publication: Surviving the Crash: The Need to Improve Lifesaving Measures

at Our Nationís Airports (Washington, DC: Coalition for Airport and Airplane Passenger Safety [CAAPS],

1999). The CAAPS report incorrectly attributes the research to the National Transportation Safety Board.
Aviation Accident Survivability 6 Safety Report

There were 568 accidents involving Part 121 air carriers from 1983 through 2000;

71 of the 568 accidents (12.5 percent) resulted in at least one occupant fatality. As figure 1

shows, 51,207 occupants survived whereas 2,280 occupants died in these 568 accidents.

Overall for the review period, 95.7 percent of the occupants involved in a Part 121 air

carrier accident survived the accident.

Table 2. Fatality and survivor data from National Transportation Safety 

Board investigation records for all accidents involving U.S. air carrier 

flights (cargo and passenger) operating under Title 14 Code of Federal 

Regulations Part 121, 1983 through 2000.

Number of accidents Number of occupants

Year Total Fatal Total Survivors Fatalities

1983 23 4 1,603 1,589 14

1984 16 1 1,530 1,526 4

1985 21 7 1,524 999 525

1986 24 3 2,599 2,592 7

1987 34 5 3,204 2,974 230

1988 30 3 3,516 3,242 274

1989 28 11 2,679 2,403 276

1990 24 6 2,264 2,252 12

1991 26 4 1,811 1,762 49

1992 18 4 1,904 1,873 31

1993 23 1 2,246 2,246 0

1994 23 4 2,305 2,068 237

1995 36 3 4,083 3,921 162

1996 37 5 3,902 3,552 350

1997 49 4 5,270 5,264 6

1998 50 1 4,550 4,550 0

1999 52 2 4,297 4,286 11

2000 54 3 4,200 4,108 92

Total 568 71 53,487 51,207 2,280

Percenta 12.5 95.7 4.3

a Percentages have been rounded to the nearest tenth.

Source: Aviation accident database of the National Transportation Safety Board.
Aviation Accident Survivability 7 Safety Report

The number of aircraft occupant survivors and fatalities varied widely over the

18-year period (figure 2). The percentage of fatalities was highest for 1985: 34 percent of

the occupants in accidents involving Part 121 operations were fatally injured. Each of the

seven fatal accidents in 1985 resulted in fatal injuries to the majority of occupants. The

next highest percentage (10 percent) of occupant fatalities occurred in 1989, in which each

of two accidents resulted in over 100 fatalities, and in 1994, in which three accidents

resulted in fatal injuries to most of the occupants.

Because a public perception is that aviation accidents are not survivable, the Safety

Board also examined the proportion of occupants who survived in each accident for the

period 1983 through 2000. Contrary to public perception, the most likely outcome of an

accident is that most people survive. In 528 of the 568 accidents (93.0 percent), more than

80 percent of the occupants survived (figure 3). Accidents that result in complete or near

complete loss of life, such as TWA flight 800, account for a small percentage of all

accidents. Only 34 of the 568 accidents (5.9 percent) resulted in fewer than 20 percent of

the occupants surviving.

Because in the majority of Part 121 accidents the occupantsí survival was never

threatened, the Safety Board focused on the survivability in serious accidents. For the

purpose of examining this subset of all Part 121 accidents, the Board defined a serious

accident as one that involved fire (precrash or postcrash), at least one serious injury or 

Figure 1. Fatality and survivor data for all accidents involving U.S. air carrier flights 

(cargo and passenger) operating under Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 121, 

1983 through 2000.

Fatalities 4.3% 

(2,280)

Survivors 95.7% 

(51,207)
Figure 2. Number of survivors and fatalities for all accidents involving U.S. carrier flights (cargo and pasunder Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 121, 1983 through 2000. (Source: Aviation accident dat

Transportation Safety Board.) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 

Number of occupants

FatalitiesSurvivors
Aviation Accident Survivability 9 Safety Report

fatality, and either substantial aircraft damage10 or complete destruction. The Board

reviewed its accident database, accident reports, public dockets, and its investigation files

for information pertinent to determining the percent of occupants surviving these serious

accidents.11 The cause of death, obtained from autopsy reports, represents the opinion of a

pathologist or coroner authorized by the State or territory to make that determination. 

From 1983 through 2000, the Safety Board investigated 26 accidents involving

fire, serious injury, and either substantial aircraft damage or complete destruction

(table 3). There were 2,739 occupants involved in these serious accidents; 1,524

(55.6 percent) of the occupants survived the accident, 716 (26.1 percent) of the occupants

died from impact, 340 (12.4 percent) died from unknown causes,12 131 (4.8 percent) died

from fire/smoke, and 28 (1.0 percent) died from other causes.13 The lowest survivability

rates occurred in 1985, when 11.3 percent of the occupants (30 of 265) in three accidents

survived, and in 1994, when 7.8 percent of the occupants (20 of 257) in three accidents

Figure 3. Number of accidents with proportions of survivors for all accidents involving U.S. air carrier 

flights (cargo and passenger) operating under Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 121, 1983 

through 2000. (Source: Aviation accident database of the National Transportation Safety Board.)

10 Substantial damage is defined in 49 CFR 830.2 as damage or failure which adversely affects the

structural strength, performance, or flight characteristics of the aircraft, and would normally require major

repair or replacement of the affected equipment.

11 The Boardís analysis of occupant survivability excluded accidents that had not been investigated by

the Safety Board. Part 121 fatal accidents not investigated by the Safety Board but documented in the Safety

Boardís database include the December 20, 1995, crash of an American Airlines Boeing 757 in Cali,

Columbia, and the December 12, 1985, crash of an Arrow Airways DC-8 in Gander, Newfoundland.

12 Autopsy reports did not specify cause of death for the occupants in the 1996 accidents involving

TWA flight 800 and ValuJet flight 592.

13 Fatalities in the ìOtherî category were caused either by drowning, mechanical asphyxia, or trauma as

a result of intrusion by engine or propeller parts.

34

1 2 3

528

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-100%

Proportion of survivors

Number of accidents
Aviation Accident Survivability 10 Safety Report

Table 3. Fatality and survivor data from National Transportation Safety Board 

investigation records for all Part 121 U.S. passenger flight accidents involving fire, 

serious injury, and either substantial airplane damage or complete destruction, 

1983 through 2000.

Number ofbó Number of fatalities by causec

Yeara Accidents Occupants Survivors Impact Fire Otherd Unknowne

1983 2 175 174 0 0 1 0

1984 1 39 39 0 0 0 0

1985 3 265 30 191 44 0 0

1986 1 23 23 0 0 0 0

1987 2 237 55 173 0 9 0

1988 2 148 134 0 14 0 0

1989 1 296 185 76 35 0 0

1990 1 44 36 3 5 0 0

1991 3 216 169 26 21 0 0

1992 2 343 316 9 2 16 0

1993 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1994 3 257 20 232 5 0 0

1995 1 62 62 0 0 0 0

1996 3 489 147 0 0 2 340

1997 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1998 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1999 1 145 134 6 5 0 0

2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 26 2,739 1,524 716 131 28 340

Percentf 55.6 26.1 4.8 1.0 12.4

a Table 4 provides these data by individual accident in the 1983 through 1999 period.

b The number of accidents, occupants, and survivors was determined from information in the aviation accident database of

the National Transportation Safety Board.

c The number of fatalities by cause was obtained from autopsy reports. The cause of death was determined by a pathologist

or coroner authorized by the State or territory to make that determination.

d Fatalities in the ìOtherî category were reported by a pathologist or coroner to have been caused either by drowning,

mechanical asphyxia, or trauma as a result of intrusion by engine or propeller parts.

e ìUnknown causeî includes the fatalities for whom a determination as to cause of death was not reported by a pathologist

or coroner with sufficient specificity to classify the fatalities as impact-, fire-, or ìother causeî-related.

f

Percentages have been rounded to the nearest tenth.
Aviation Accident Survivability 11 Safety Report

survived (figure 4). In 1984, 1986, 1995, and 2000, there were no on-board fatalities; thus

the survivability rate was 100 percent.

The Safety Board also examined how many occupants survived for each of the

serious accidents. The most likely outcome for these serious accidents is that most people

survive the accident. In 12 of the 26 serious accidents (46.2 percent), more than 80 percent

of the occupants survived (figure 5). In 9 of the 26 serious accidents (35 percent), fewer

than 20 percent of the occupants survived.

An important distinction between deaths from impact and deaths from fire is that

impact deaths typically occur as a result of aircraft impact forces whereas fire deaths

typically occur after impact. In the serious accidents, there were nearly five times more

impact fatalities than fire-related fatalities. The high proportion of impact-to-fire fatalities

is the result of the inclusion of a number of unsurvivable accidents in the subset. For an

accident to be deemed survivable, the forces transmitted to occupants through their seat

and restraint system cannot exceed the limits of human tolerance to abrupt accelerations,

and the structure in the occupantsí immediate environment must remain substantially

intact to the extent that a livable volume is provided for the occupants throughout the

crash. Using this definition of a survivable accident, the Safety Board examined accident

reports and determined that 7 of the 26 serious accidents were not survivable because of

the impact forces (see the shaded rows in table 4).

Nineteen of the 26 serious accidents involving Part 121 air carriers were at least

partially survivable as indicated in accident reports; 1,523 (76.6 percent) of the

1,988 occupants in these accidents survived, 306 (15.4 percent) of the occupants died

from impact, 131 (6.6 percent) died from fire, and 28 (1.4 percent) died from other causes

(table 5). In the survivable serious accidents, over twice as many occupants died as a result

of impact forces than as a result of fire. Figure 6 shows the cause-of-death data by year for

the survivable serious accidents.

As is the case with all Part 121 accidents, the most likely outcome for the serious

survivable accidents is that most occupants survive. In 12 of the 19 serious accidents that

were survivable (63.2 percent), more than 80 percent of the occupants survived (figure 7).

In 2 of the 19 serious accidents that were survivable (10.5 percent), fewer than 20 percent

of the occupants survived.
Figure 4. Number of survivors and fatalities for all Part 121 passenger flight accidents involving fire, serious substantial airplane damage or complete destruction, 1983 through 2000. ìOther causeî includes drowning, asphyxia, or trauma as a result of intrusion by engine or propeller parts. ìUnknown causeî includes the fataldetermination as to cause of death was not reported by a pathologist or coroner with sufficient specificity to cas impact-, fire-, or ìother causeî-related. (Source: National Transportation Safety Board factual reports, whicinformation obtained from autopsy reports.)

0

200400600

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1

Number of occupants

Fatalities resulting from other causesFatalities resulting from unknown causeFatalities resulting from fireFatalities resulting from impactSurvivors
Figure 5. Number of accidents with proportions of survivors for U.S. passenger flights operating under Title 14 Regulations Part 121 that involved fire, serious injury, and either substantial aircraft damage or complete destru2000. (Source: Aviation accident database of the National Transportation Safety Board.) 9 1 1 3 

02468101214 0-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80% 

Proportion of survivors

Number of accidents
Table 4. Fatality and survivor data, by individual accident, from National Transportation Safety Board investigation Part 121 U.S. passenger flight accidents involving fire, serious injury, and either substantial airplane damage or com1983 through 2000. Number ofaó Number of fat

Date of accident Location of accident Airplane type Occupants Survivors Fatalities Impact Fire 01/09/83 Brainerd, Minnesota Convair 580-11-A 33 32 1 0 0 06/11/83 Chicago, Illinois Boeing 727-222A 142 142 0 0 0 12/16/84 Jasper, Alabama Convair 440 39 39 0 0 0 01/21/85 Reno, Nevada Lockheed 188C 71 1 70 26 44 08/02/85 Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas Lockheed L-1011-385-1 163 29 134 134 0 09/06/85 Milwaukee, Wisconsin McDonnell Douglas DC-9-14 31 0 31 31 0 

11/06/86 Tampa, Florida Boeing 727-235 23 23 0 0 0 

08/16/87 Romulus, Michigan McDonnell Douglas DC-9-82 155 1 154 154 0 

11/15/87 Denver, Colorado McDonnell Douglas DC-9-14 82 54 28 19 0 04/15/88 Seattle, Washington de Havilland DHC Dash 8 40 40 0 0 0 08/31/88 Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas Boeing 727-232 108 94 14 0 14 07/19/89 Sioux City, Iowa McDonnell Douglas DC-10-10 296 185 111 76 35 12/03/90 Romulus, Michigan McDonnell Douglas DC-9-14 44 36 8 3 5 02/01/91 Los Angeles, California Boeing 737-300 89 67 22 1 21 

03/03/91 Colorado Springs, Colorado Boeing 737-291 25 0 25 25 0 

05/05/91 Atlanta, Georgia McDonnell Douglas MD-88 102 102 0 0 0 03/22/92 LaGuardia Airport, Flushing, New York Fokker 28-4000 51 24 27 9 2 

07/30/92 John F. Kennedy International Airport, Jamaica, New York Lockheed L-1011-385-1 292 292 0 0 0 

07/02/94 Charlotte, North Carolina McDonnell Douglas DC-9-31 57 20 37 32 5 

09/08/94 Aliquippa, Pennsylvania Boeing 737-300 132 0 132 132 0 10/31/94 Roselawn, Indiana Avions de Transport Regional (ATR) 72-212 68 0 68 68 0 

06/08/95 Atlanta, Georgia McDonnell Douglas DC-9-32 62 62 0 0 0 
Table 4. Fatality and survivor data, by individual accident, from National Transportation Safety Board investigation Part 121 U.S. passenger flight accidents involving fire, serious injury, and either substantial airplane damage or com1983 through 2000. (Continued) Number ofaó Number of fat

Date of accident Location of accident Airplane type Occupants Survivors Fatalities Impact Fire 05/11/96 Everglades, Miami, Florida McDonnell Douglas DC-9-32 110 0 110 0 0 

07/06/96 Pensacola, Florida McDonnell Douglas MD-88 149 147 2 0 0 

07/17/96 E. Moriches, New York Boeing 747-131 230 0 230 0 0 

06/01/99 Little Rock, Arkansas McDonnell Douglas MD-82 145 134 11 6 5 

Total 2,739 1,524 1,147 716 131 

An unshaded row (n = 19) indicates that the accident was survivable. A shaded row (n= 7) indicates that the accident was not survivable. a The number of occupants, survivors, and fatalities was determined from information in the aviation accident database of the National Transportation Safety 

b The number of fatalities by cause was obtained from autopsy reports. The cause of death was determined by a pathologist or coroner authorized by the Sta

determination. c Fatalities in the ìOtherî category were reported by a pathologist or coroner to have been caused either by drowning, mechanical asphyxia, or trauma as a re

or propeller parts. d ìUnknown causeî includes the fatalities for whom a determination as to cause of death was not reported by a pathologist or coroner with sufficient specific

as impact-, fire-, or ìother causeî-related.
Aviation Accident Survivability 16 Safety Report

Table 5. Fatality and survivor data from National Transportation Safety Board 

investigation records for all survivable Part 121 U.S. passenger flight accidents involving 

fire, serious injury, and either substantial airplane damage or complete destruction, 1983 

through 2000.

Number ofaó Number of fatalities by causeb

Year Accidents Occupants Survivors Impact Fire Otherc Unknownd

1983 2 175 174 0 0 1 0

1984 1 39 39 0 0 0 0

1985 2 234 30 160 44 0 0

1986 1 23 23 0 0 0 0

1987 1 82 54 19 0 0 9

1988 2 148 134 0 14 0 0

1989 1 296 185 76 35 0 0

1990 1 44 36 3 5 0 0

1991 2 191 169 1 21 0 0

1992 2 343 316 9 2 16 0

1993 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1994 1 57 20 32 5 0 0

1995 1 62 62 0 0 0 0

1996 1 149 147 0 0 2 0

1997 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1998 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1999 1 145 134 6 5 0 0

2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 19 1,988 1,523 306 131 28 0

Percente 76.6 15.4 6.6 1.4 0 a The number of accidents, occupants, and survivors was determined from information in the aviation accident database of

the National Transportation Safety Board.

b The number of fatalities by cause was obtained from autopsy reports. The cause of death was determined by a

pathologist or coroner authorized by the State or territory to make that determination.

c Fatalities in the ìOtherî category were reported by a pathologist or coroner to have been caused either by drowning,

mechanical asphyxia, or trauma as a result of intrusion by engine or propeller parts.

d ìUnknown causeî includes the fatalities for whom a determination as to cause of death was not reported by a pathologist

or coroner with sufficient specificity to classify the fatalities as impact-, fire-, or ìother causeî-related.

e Percentages have been rounded to the nearest tenth.
Figure 6. Number of survivors and fatalities for the survivable Part 121 passsenger flight accidents involvinjury, and either substantial airplane damage or complete destruction, 1983 through 2000. ìOther causedrowning, mechanical aspyxia, or trauma as a result of intrusion by engine or propeller parts. (Source: NTransportation Safety Board factual reports, which contain pertinent information obtained from autopsy re

0 100 200 300 400 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1

Number of occupants

Fatalities resulting from other causesFatalities resulting from fireFatalities resulting from impactSurvivors

0

100200300400

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1

Number of occupants

Fatalities resulting from other causesFatalities resulting from fireFatalities resulting from impactSurvivors

0

100200300400

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1

Number of occupants

Fatalities resulting from other causesFatalities resulting from fireFatalities resulting from impactSurvivors
Figure 7. Number of accidents with proportions of survivors for survivable U.S. passenger flights operating under Title 14 CRegulations Part 121 that involved fire, serious injury, and either substantial aircraft damage or complete destruction, 1983 (Source: Aviation accident database of the National Transportation Safety Board and NTSB factual reports, which contain pinformation obtained from autopsy reports.) 2 1 1 3 12 02468101214 0-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-10

Proportion of survivors

Number of accidents

2

1 1

3

12

02468

101214

0-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-10

Proportion of survivors

Number of accidents
19 Safety Report

Discussion

Nearly 96 percent of the occupants involved in a Part 121 aviation accident over

the past 18 years survived the accident, and in over 46 percent of the most serious of these

accidents (accidents involving fire, serious injury, and either substantial aircraft damage or

complete destruction), more than 80 percent of the occupants survived. Although

catastrophic accidents such as TWA flight 800 result in fatalities to all occupants, such

accidents are the exception. The large number of people who survive even the most

serious accidents emphasizes the importance of work aimed at ensuring that crash

survivors can safely remove themselves from the accident aircraft.

Even in the 19 survivable Part 121 accidents involving fire, occupants were much

more likely to die from impact forces than from the effects of fire. These results indicate

lower fire-related fatalities than both the ETSC estimates and the FAA research. The

difference between the ETSC estimates and the Safety Boardís findings may reflect

differences in the aviation system in the United States compared to worldwide aviation

systems examined for the ETSC estimates. Further, these differences could be the result of

differences in the criteria for selecting accidents by which to examine survivability data.

Surviving an accident is the result of many factors. The large number of survivors

reflects the efforts of industry and government to ensure passenger safety. Cabin structural

integrity, seat belts, seat design, child restraint systems, and brace positions can all

increase a personís likelihood of surviving an impact. Fire retardancy, exit design, aircraft

configuration, and evacuation procedures can assist persons to escape an airplane after an

accident. Over the last decade, air travelers have been provided improvements in many of

these areas.

Safety Board recommendations have been the impetus for many of these

improvements in occupant protection, including fire detection and suppression systems in

lavatories and cargo compartments, modifications in cargo compartments to delay fires

from spreading, and fire blocking of cabin and seat materials that also prevent fires from

spreading.14 The Safety Board also recommended floor level escape lighting systems and

heat resistant slides to improve occupant escape paths, and recommended improvements

for the crashworthiness of passenger seats.

In addition to aircraft design, passenger education plays a crucial role in increasing

occupant survival. The FAA requires that passengers receive a preflight briefing and

safety card regarding aircraft safety systems. However, many airplane occupants do not

pay attention to the preflight briefing, and more than two-thirds never examine the safety

14 National Transportation Safety Board, We Are All Safer (Washington, DC: NTSB, 1998).
Discussion 20 Safety Report

briefing card.15 The FAA emphasizes the importance of these safety briefings directly to

the public through documents such as ìFly Smart: An Air Travelerís Guide.î16

One reason passengers do not pay attention to the briefing may be their belief that

accidents are not survivable.17 Public perceptions of survivability may be substantially

lower than the actual rate of 95.7 percent for all Part 121 accidents. Empowered with the

knowledge of aircraft accident survivability rates, passengers may take additional steps to

improve their chances of survival, including planning exit routes, paying attention to

safety briefings, and reading safety cards.

15 National Transportation Safety Board, Emergency Evacuation of Commercial Airplanes, Safety

Study NTSB/SS-00/01. (Washington, DC: NTSB, 2000).

16 Online posting accessed October 13, 2000 <http://www.asy.faa.gov/asy-internet/flysmart>.

17 European Transport Safety Council, Increasing the Survival Rate in Aircraft Accidents: Impact

Protection, Fire Survivability, and Evacuation (Brussels, Belgium: ETSC, 1996).
21 Safety Report

Findings

1. In all accidents involving Part 121 operations from 1983 through 2000,

51,207 occupants (95.7 percent) survived whereas 2,280 occupants died.

2. In 528 (93.0 percent) of the 568 accidents involving Part 121 operations from 1983 to

2000, more than 80 percent of the occupants survived.

3. In serious Part 121 accidents (those involving fire, serious injury, and either

substantial aircraft damage or complete destruction), there were 2,739 occupants;

1,524 (55.6 percent) of those occupants survived.

4. In 12 (46.2 percent) of the 26 serious Part 121 accidents from 1983 through 2000,

more than 80 percent of the occupants survived.

5. In serious Part 121 accidents from 1983 through 2000, there were nearly five times

more impact fatalities than fire-related fatalities.

6. In serious Part 121 accidents from 1983 through 2000 that were categorized as

survivable, 1,523 of the 1,988 occupants (76.6 percent) survived.

7. In serious Part 121 accidents from 1983 through 2000 that were categorized as

survivable, over twice as many occupants died as a result of impact forces than as a

result of fire.

8. In 12 (63.2 percent) of the 19 serious Part 121 accidents from 1983 through 2000 that

were categorized as survivable, more than 80 percent of the occupants survived.

9. Public perception of survivability may be substantially lower than the actual rate of

95.7 percent for all Part 121 accidents.

By the National Transportation Safety Board

Carol J. Carmody John A. Hammerschmidt

Acting Chairman Member

John Goglia

Member

George W. Black, Jr.

Member

Adopted March 5, 2001