AQUACULTURE OUTLOOK                                            March 4, 1997
            Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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AQUACULTURE OUTLOOK, a supplement to Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Monthly, 
is published twice a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  LDP-AQS-5.

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Catfish Output Expected To Increase in 1997

Based on the increases in grower inventories reported for January 1, catfish
output is forecast to expand 5-7 percent in 1997.  Strong farm prices and
relatively steady feed costs in 1994 and 1995 laid the  foundation for expanded
pond acreage and production in 1996 and into 1997.  While farm prices remained
favorable in 1996, growers were pressured by large increases in feed costs. 
While larger catfish production is expected to put some downward pressure on
prices in 1997,  growers are likely to see feed prices decline as corn and
soybean meal prices are expected to be much lower than a year earlier.

At the start of 1997, grower-held inventories of fish were larger for almost
all categories.  The larger inventories of food-size fish are expected to put
some downward pressure on prices, especially with large supplies of competing
meat and poultry also available.  In the first quarter of 1996, sales to
processors were 123 million pounds and the farm price averaged 77.7 cents a
pound.  In 1997, volume is expected to be higher, but prices will likely be
lower.  Grower inventories, in numbers of fish, for small, medium, and large
food-size fish on January 1, 1997, were 14, 30, and 17 percent higher than the
previous year.  Some of the downward price pressure caused by larger grower
stocks is expected to be moderated by the fish being marketed during the first
quarter of the year,  traditionally the strongest sales period for catfish
processors.

At the beginning of 1997, growers also reported that inventories of stockers
and fingerlings were both 20 percent higher than the previous year.  These fish
will achieve market size and be ready for processing mostly during the second
half of 1997.  With farm prices expected to average below the previous year,
growers would normally look to feeding at less than the maximum rate and
reducing population densities.  However, this year's lower farm prices are
likely to be partially offset by lower feed costs,  especially during the first
half of the year.  The steady expansion of the domestic economy is also
expected to boost sales of fish products for at-home consumption and in
foodservice businesses. 

Farm Prices Lower in 1997 Over the first 9 months of 1996,  farm prices for
catfish were relatively steady at around 77 to 79 cents a pound.  In the fourth
quarter, the volume of farmers' sales to processors was strong, averaging 10
percent
above the same period in 1995.  This caused farm prices to slip to 73 cents a
pound by December 1996.  Farm prices in first-half 1997 are expected to be 4 to
5 cents a pound below the 78 cents a pound they averaged in 1996.  While large
supplies of food-size fish and other protein products are expected to pressure
prices, seasonal strength in the first quarter and continued growth in the
domestic economy will be partially offsetting.  In the second half of the year,
catfish growers will benefit from higher beef prices which should help offset
the expected price-damping effects of increased supplies of food-size fish.

Acreage Growth Mainly in Arkansas and Mississippi
After 2 years of remaining unchanged or declining slightly, acreage in catfish
ponds rose in 1996 and is expected to rise again in 1997.  At the beginning of
1997, growers reported they will be using 177,360 acres for catfish production
in the first half of the year.  This is up 10,000 acres from the previous year
and a record for the catfish industry.  Although a number of States reported
increases, most of the rise was in the four largest producing States,
Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, and Louisiana.  Growers also reported that over
the first 6 months of 1997 they planned to construct or renovate an additional
10,000 acres.  This additional acreage will come chiefly from expansion of
existing farms, as the number of operations fell 2 percent between January 1,
1996 and 1997.

Broodfish Numbers Lower, Average Weight Up
The only area where catfish growers indicated that their inventories declined
was in broodfish stocks.  The number of broodfish was down 1 percent to 1.2
million.  However, the estimated weight of these broodfish rose 5 percent from
1996.  Because total egg production in fish is usually a function of
bodyweight, the lower number of fish is not as important as the increase in
overall body mass.  The 5 percent increase in weight indicates a potential
increase in egg production for 1997.  Therefore,  production of fingerlings and
stockers is expected to continue upward through 1997 and into 1998.  

Farm Sales Top $400 Million
Total sales by catfish farmers in 1996 rose 4 percent to a record $417 million. 
Food-size fish accounted for 93 percent of the total, with broodfish, stocker,
and fingerling sales making up the remainder.  On a weight basis, food-size
sales by farmers were about 507 million pounds, up 5 percent from the previous
year.  Sales to processors were a record 472 million pounds, and the remaining
35 million pounds were sold through other markets.  The largest markets for
these fish are direct sales to consumers or restaurants.  Prices received by
farmers averaged 77.3 cents a pound in 1996, down slightly over a penny from
1995, but the third highest yearly average.  Farmers recorded strong gains in
sales to processors during the first and fourth quarters, but sales in the
middle of the year were only slightly higher than a year earlier.

Given the strong increases in fish numbers held by growers at the beginning of
1997, grower sales to processors are forecast between 495 and 510 million
pounds this year, another 5-7 percent increase.  Most of the increase is
expected to come in the first three quarters of the year, as it will be
difficult to show a large year-over-year increase compared to the strong sales
of fourth-quarter 1996.  Sales to processors in January 1997 were 42 million
pounds, up 10 percent from a year earlier, and are expected to continue strong
through the Lenten season.

Processor Revenues Again at Record Levels The 4.5-percent increase in
processors' sales to a record 237.2 million pounds in 1996, more than offset a
1-percent decrease in overall processor prices.  Gross processor revenues in
1996 were $561 million, about 15 million above the previous year.  Processor
prices showed good strength through the first half of 1996, but started to
decline somewhat in the second half, especially in the fourth quarter as sales
to processors rose and processor-held inventories expanded.  In 1997, gross
processor revenues are expected to be near or slightly higher than in 1996 as
anticipated higher quantities are likely to be mostly offset by lower prices.

The increase in gross revenues in 1996 was mostly from larger sales of filleted
product.  Sales of both fresh and frozen fillets were record high in 1996. 
Sales of whole products were about even with the previous year and sales of
other products, mostly nuggets and belly strips, were down from the record
highs of the previous year.  Prices for all catfish products declined in 1996,
although prices for whole fish products decreased only marginally.  Prices for
other products were affected the most, declining by 5 percent.  In 1997, sales
of processed products are expected to grow, but prices will likely be under
pressure from high beginning inventories, increased grower supplies, and large
supplies of competing products. 

Tilapia Imports Up 21 Percent
U.S. tilapia imports are forecast to expand further in 1997, with continued
expansion helping sales to restaurants, the primary outlet for tilapia
products.  The strength of the dollar will also encourage more imports. 
Domestic production is expected to grow, but the live market, which is the
largest outlet for domestic producers, is not expected to expand as fast as
sales of processed products to the foodservice market.  The value of U.S.
tilapia imports in 1996 rose 26 percent to $43 million.  This follows a
33-percent increase in 1995.  The increase was mostly the result of a higher
quantity of tilapia entering the country (up 21 percent) as the average price
for tilapia products changed only slightly.  On a liveweight basis, tilapia
imports in 1996 were the equivalent of 62 million pounds of production.

The American Tilapia Association estimated that U.S. production was 15 million
pounds, liveweight,  in 1995.  Production in 1996 was expected to be around 17
to 19 million pounds and additional growth is forecast for 1997 with higher
production at existing sites and new firms entering the market.  Presently,
much of U.S. production concentrates on the live fish market and especially
areas with large Asian populations.  California and Arizona produce the most
tilapia because of the strong market for it in southern California.  With the
increase in supplies from domestic and foreign sources, the tilapia market in
the United States is expected to remain very competitive.  However, larger
supplies, especially of processed product, will allow tilapia to become a much
more widely sold product in foodservice businesses and grocery outlets. 

The higher tilapia imports were concentrated in the whole frozen fish and fresh
fillet markets, as imports of frozen fillets declined.  On a quantity basis,
imports of frozen whole fish make up 80 percent of the total imports, but
growth in fresh fillet imports has pushed its percentage of the market on a
value basis to 27 percent.  Frozen whole fish comes chiefly from Taiwan, but
fresh fillets are produced on farms in  Central  and South America, and the
Caribbean.   Costa Rica and Colombia are the major producers.  In most cases,
these farms have been in production for only a short time.

U.S. Salmon Production Steady in 1996 
U.S. farm-raised salmon production remained steady in 1996 at 33 million
pounds, virtually the same as in 1995.  With no new sites approved for
production, salmon output in 1997 is expected to remain close to the 1996
total.  Growers will try to increase yields at present production sites, but
they will continue to face an expanding output of farm-raised salmon from
countries such as Norway, Chile, Scotland, and Canada, plus large harvests of
wild salmon in Alaska.

After rising substantially in 1995, salmon production in Maine in 1996
basically showed no growth.  Maine's Department of Marine Resources reported
that production  was 22 million pounds.  Over the last several years, 
production of steelhead has been going down as growers in Maine concentrate
strictly on Atlantic salmon.  Production in 1997 is forecast to rise only
slightly as growers continue to become more efficient at existing locations.

The Washington Farmed Salmon Commission reported production of 11 million
pounds in 1996, the same as in 1995.   Production in Washington has been
changing over time as growers move away from  Chinook or Coho salmon production
and concentrate on growing Atlantic salmon.  In 1996, production was completely
from farmed Atlantic salmon.  Like their counterparts in Maine, growers in
Washington expect only slightly higher production in 1997.

Imports of Atlantic salmon continued to expand in 1996, as shipments in all
three categories were higher.  The growth in imports of fresh or frozen fillets
(up 68 percent) was the prime factor in the increase.   Chile is the dominant
supplier to the United States of salmon fillets and accounted for almost 100
percent of the increase in 1996.  At $75 million,  imports of fresh or frozen
fillets accounted for 26 percent of all salmon imports in 1996, up from 19
percent in 1995.  With the increase in exports of fresh or frozen fillets in
1996, Chile passed Canada, in terms of product weight, to become the largest
supplier of salmon products to the United States.

Canada and Chile are the largest suppliers to the United States and account for
over 90 percent of all salmon imports.  All of Chile's salmon production is
farm-raised.  While Canada and Norway still have some wild salmon runs, these
only account for a very small percentage of their total production.  The rapid
growth in the farmed salmon industry means that farm-raised salmon is now a
major player on world markets.  Norway is not a large supplier to the United
States, but it remains the world's largest farmed salmon producer.  The
Norweign fisheries newspaper "Fiskaren" reported that even with a program
designed to hold down production, the 1996 harvest was estimated at 292,000
metric tons, (643 million pounds) in 1996.  This is still less than Alaska's
record 1.1 billion pounds of wild salmon harvested in 1995, but the difference
has closed significantly.   

Shrimp Imports Fall in 1996
After peaking in 1994 at $2.7 billion, the value of U.S. shrimp imports fell 4
percent in 1995 and an additional 4 percent in 1996.  Last year's lower imports
were due to reduced import volume and a decline in the average unit value. 
Total shrimp imports fell 3 percent to 582 million pounds and the total value
dropped 4 percent to $2.5 billion.  Imports fell for frozen shell-on or peeled
product, while imports of fresh or prepared shrimp (breaded, canned,
pre-cooked, etc.) rose for the third year in a row.  Imports of fresh or
prepared shrimp are a mixture of fresh shrimp (shell-on or peeled) from close
by sources such as Canada, Mexico, and Central American nations, and further
processed shrimp products from major shrimp farming countries like Ecuador and
Thailand.  Prices for most shrimp imports declined compared with 1995.  The
chief exceptions were for prices of very large frozen shell-on shrimp, those
larger than 45 shrimp per kilo.

Since 1994, imports of frozen shrimp have fallen around 46 million pounds or 7
percent.  Most of the decline has come from lower imports of farmed shrimp from
the major Asian producers.  The trends are not completely clear cut as most
countries in Asia have both farmed and wild harvests.  However, the indicator
that imports of farmed products have suffered the most over the last few years
is that imports of mid-sized shrimp, 60 to 110 per kilo, have declined the
most.  Imports of large shrimp which are often from wild harvest, have
increased.  This has caused imports from countries such as India, Bangladesh,
and Indonesia to expand.

In 1997, shrimp imports are expected to remain stable or decline slightly. 
First, many shrimp farming countries face obstacles to expanding production. 
Among the most critical is continuing disease problems in many major growing
areas.  Also, there is concern over possible long term environmental damage
from rapid development of salt water shrimp ponds and the destruction of marsh
and swamp areas to create new production sites.  In addition, the growth in per
capita incomes in many Asian countries has increased the local and regional
demand for shrimp.

Crawfish Import Quantity Even, Prices Fall
After rising rapidly between 1994 and 1995, up 358 percent, U.S. imports of
frozen crawfish meat in 1996 were 2.8 million pounds, down slightly from 1995.  
 Shipments from China account for about 95 percent of the imports.  In 1996,
larger supplies of crawfish on the U.S. market caused the average import price
of frozen crawfish meat to fall to $1.72 a pound, down 46 percent from 1995's
$3.19.  The larger supplies were partly due to reduced U.S. crawfish exports
during 1996.  Prices for the remainder of the 1996/1997 season will be affected
by spring water levels in the Achafalaya Basin.  This will determine the amount
of wild crawfish harvest, which tends to be more variable than the farmed
harvest.

The rapid increase in imports of low-priced frozen crawfish meat from China
between 1992 and 1995 greatly concerned the Louisiana crawfish industry.  An
industry group (The Crawfish Alliance) and the Louisiana Department of
Agriculture asked the Commerce Department and the International Trade
Commission to investigate whether China was dumping crawfish meat on the U.S.
market.  A preliminary determination on the charges by the Commerce Department
is scheduled to be announced on March 19.
 
While imports remained relatively stable in 1996, U.S. crawfish exports to
Scandinavia fell to 3 million pounds and $5.8 million, far lower than any time
in the last 6 years.  After peaking at 8.9 million pounds in 1994, exports have
fallen greatly in the last 2 years.  The decline has allowed the large
crawfish,  that normally are exported, to remain in the domestic market,
putting downward pressure on prices.

Mollusk Imports Rising, Clam and Mussel Exports Higher
In 1996, U.S. exports of mussels, clams, and oysters were valued at $17
million, up about $1.4 million (9 percent) from 1995.  The increase came
chiefly from a rise in the quantity of clam exports.  The value of mussel
exports rose 15 percent in 1996, but the quantity fell 15 percent.  The
decrease was concentrated in live mussel products as shipments of other mussel
products rose.  For clam products, the increase in exports was evenly
distributed among Canada, traditionally the largest market, Hong Kong, and
Japan.  This is the second year in a row that clam exports have risen strongly.

Oyster exports fell in 1996, as a stronger dollar reduced sales to Japan and
Taiwan, two of the largest markets.  While continued economic growth in Asia is
expected to bolster sales of mollusks to that region, a stronger dollar will
make market expansion difficult for U.S. producers.  A bright spot for oyster
exports is that several Northwest producers have been approved by Japan to
export live oysters to that country.  The strong dollar may keep sales slow at
the present time, but Japan could be a major outlet for Northwest producers. 
The oysters grown in the Northwest were originally native to Asia.

Almost all mollusk import categories were higher in 1996.  The lone exception
was oysters.  Oyster imports appear to be on a downward slope with rising
production in the United States and consumers' reaction to warning about the
danger, to certain groups of people, of eating raw oysters or other raw
mollusks.  Mussel imports were up 37 percent on a quantity basis to 21.2
million pounds.  This is the third year in a row that mussel imports rose at a
double-digit rate.  Domestic mussel landings are not reported separately so it
if difficult to determine if the increase in imports can be attributable to
lower domestic supply or increasing public acceptance of mussel products.  Clam
imports were higher in 1996, but they remain below their 1994 levels.  Scallop
imports continue to expand, reaching $198 million in 1996, 14 percent higher
than the previous year.  Larger shipments from China accounted for much of the
increase.  China is rapidily expanding its farmed scallop industry, which is
based on bay scallops originally imported from the United States.

Ornamental Fish Exports and Imports Lower
U.S. exports of ornamental fish were valued at $15.5 million in 1996, $4.3
million or 4 percent less than the previous year.  Until 1996, exports of
ornamental fish had risen for 6 consecutive years and had been a major
aquaculture export.

The strength of the dollar compared to the yen and other currencies worked
against continued expansion in ornamental fish exports.  Exports to Japan,
traditionally the largest U.S. market, declined 24 percent and shipments to
Hong Kong were down 21 percent.  With this large decline, shipments to Hong
Kong at $1.4 million were the lowest in over 4 years.  Exports also declined to
many of the EU countries, the exception being the Netherlands.  The EU
countries had been a growing market for U.S. producers.  The decline in
shipments is partially attributable to slower economic growth and rising
unemployment in a number of EU countries.  Many of the same factors were likely
behind a 23-percent decrease in exports to Canada.  Exports to Canada had risen
for the last 3 years and at $3.4 million were well below the record $4.5
million in 1995.  One bright spot was exports to Mexico, which rose 21 percent
after falling precipitously in 1995 with the peso devaluation.  U.S. growers
are likely to face a difficult year in 1997 as the continued strength of the
dollar increases U.S. prices relative to those of competitors.

Imports of ornamental fish fell 2 percent to $53 million in 1996.  Even with
the decline, import value was up 13 percent from 1994 and the second highest on
record.  The decline was concentrated among major suppliers.  Imports from
Japan, Thailand, Brazil, and the Philippines were all down.  These declines
were partially offset by increased imports from Singapore and Indonesia, which
are the two largest suppliers.  With continued economic growth and a strong
dollar, imports are expected to expand in 1997.


                         Principal contributor:
                        Dave Harvey 202-219-0839

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