### ... Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 June 11, 1997 PUBLIC WORKSHOP FOR WATER HEATER ENERGY EFFICIENCY STANDARDS RULEMAKING On May 22, 1997, the Department ofEnergy gave notice ofa public workshop regarding energy conservation standards for water heaters. The workshop will be held on June 24, 1997, at the U.S. Department ofEnergy, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW., Washington, DC. 20585-0121 in Room 1E-245 from 9:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. I have enclosed the "Water Heater Rulemaking Framework" document for your review and discussion at the workshop. The Department is convening this workshop to propose the analytical framework for developing the standards for water heaters. This workshop would include a discussion ofthe different methodologies and the relationships among various analyses. It would identify possible tools to be used and contractor qualifications, as well as, a discussion ofapproaches to be taken for the screening and engineering analysis. Ifyou have any questions, please contact Bryan Berringer at (202) 586-0371. Sincerel ,/
chael J. cCabe, Drector Ofice ofCodes and Standards Building Technology, State and

Community Programs Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Enclosure

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# Water Heater Rulemaking Framewrk

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...... '$......;Water Heater Rulemaking Framework Introduction .. ...................................................... 1 1.0 Preliminary Market and Technology Assessment .............................. 1 1.1 Market Assessment........................ ............... 1.2 Technology Assessment ...................... ....... * * 3 1.3 Preliminary Baseline Shipments Forecast ................ 3"" .... . 2.0 Screening Analysis ............... ... . .... ,.... : 4 2.1 Product Classes..................... . ....... 2.2 Baseline Units 

### . 'x'. - : ...... &..:.:'' " ............. 5 2.3 Design Options *. ::.... : .. ::....: .... . .... 

### * * 3.0 Engineering Analysis ........... :.......... . 7..:.... :.. 4.0 Manufacturing Costs ............................. 8 4.1 Characterizing Uncertainty ....... 9-i: . ............. :..... 4.2 Variability in Costs between Manufacturers.;ii. .................. 9 4.3 CostingApproach/ Engineering Analysis
. ........... l ........ 10 4.4 Proprietary Design . .................. 10 5.0 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Analysisii II:: : I ,. ......... 11 6.0 Prices ....................... ...... .... 12 6.1 Retail Prices: Life-Cycle Cost Analys;ii; .... . ............... ..... 12 6.2 Manufacturer Prices: :lnd ry Castiw ..... ........................ 13

.......... 7.0 Shipments .......... . ........................ 13 8.0 Prelim.ary National neits Analyi ................... 14 F.0 iiPuts

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..... 9.0 Re ::ion.i"eAR :.Op· ·.-....... alyses.1. ..................... 15 9.0 Consumerlmpa.............. ..... .... .... °"s"onsum er NetImpa " .. ":':'''" ee 'n b 

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## 16 ef10.1 Consumie t group Analysis........ . .. ................ 16 .10.1.1 Variati ns in Energy Prices ................... ......... 16 .1-11 10.1.2 Variations in Energy Use .............. 16 1

0.1 .3 F it os t In creases . . . . . . . . .... . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .... .. . ... 1 6 iiiiiii 10.1.3 FistCost lncreases 16 10.2 Con" mer Participation ....... ........................ 

### 1..............17 -i. .,..- Flow· Fo .................................. .................. 17 !l': 'n::~'!i Cash Flow.17

12.0 Manufacturer Sub-group Analysis ................................. 1 12.1 Manufacturer Sub-groups ...... 1.............. ............... .8 12.2 Competitive Impacts Assessment ................. 18 12.3 Cumulative Regulatory Burden ............... 19 Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, -199713.0 UtilityImpacts ................................................. 19 14.0 Environmental Analysis .1.................. ......................... 19 Appendices A. Base Case Shipments Forecasts: Data Request ................. ...... A-1 B. Technology Assessment and Screening Analysis ... ... ......... B-1 (will be distributed at the June 24, 1997, workshop) . B.1 Technology Assessment ......................... . : B.2 Screening Analysis ................. ... 1 C. Data Requests for Manufacturer Costs ......... ... .................. C-1 C.1 Design-Option Approach ..................... i ................ C-1 C.2 Efficiency-Level Approach ................ -14 C.3 Uncertainty and Variability in Manufacturer Costs i......... C-25 D. Financial Inputs for GRIM ........... ........ ............ D-1

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Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 199713.0 UtilityImpacts ......................................................... 19 14.0 Environmental Analysis .................................................. 19 Appendices . A. Base Case Shipments Forecasts: Data Request ............... .... A-1 B. Technology Assessment and Screening Analysis. ...... B-1 (will be distributedat the June 24, 1997, workshop) '. B.1 TechnologyAssessment .................... B.2 Screening Analysis ... ..... .... ... ...... ¢' C. Data Requests for Manufacturer Costs ............... ...... C-1 C.1 Design-Option Approach . ........... .......... CC.2 Efficiency-Level Approach . ..... 4 C.3 Uncertainty and Variability in Manufacturer Costs ....... ..... . C-25 D. Financial Inputs for GRIM .......... ,......... D-1

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Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 iiWater Heater Rulemaking Framework Introduction Thisdocument describes the analytical framework for appliance standards rulemaking. The emphasis is on describing the major components ofthe methodology and identifying the relationships among the various sections. A diagram ofthe analytical framework is shown in Figure 1. Currently, theAdvisory Committee on Appliance Energy Eff ency Standards is considering cross-cutting issues which may affect the ana:sis an.ipated in upcoming rulemakings. The Department plans to consider anyrecoon fromthe Advisory Committee to thegreatest extent possible in the igoing 's.

This document also describes the application ofthei:.ticat'iamework heater rule. Following a generic description ofeach pet ofa typical rui ng, acomment box has been added to discuss elements ol : "'heater rule. References to waterheaters include summaries ofpast events, s: . current analysis, discussion ofkey issues, the Department ofEnergyE' (DOE'ves on these issues, andrequests for additional stakeholder input. ... i As described in thisdocument, manufacw rs ar "".io provideaidditional performance and costing informationt:,improve i* i ;IE...'....analysis. In keeping with the Department's policies, provisions willbe madt.~iintain the confidentiality of all submitted information. if .. ,1' .. . Unless new data is provided'.'. Departn-t will s .. the existing data previously ben ;.f......hes.e levesi.' " "T aZ.nalyses would complete the analytical steps that precede the Adnc .fce of "'"Rulemaking (ANOPR) under the new process. However.^th "p'*:ment be'i:s|that additional data gathering will improve the current analysis,al prolb lareas and accelerate future manufacturer and econoisl ""-'an 'ys'e. 1t.ase ofwater heaters, arevised Notice ofProposed Rulemaking (NOP .ibi o. Issued and include all ofthe analyses identified in Fig. 1 si'ce a NOPR was p sy issued. Although a new ANOPR will not be issued,

. NOPR analysis (asdefied in sections 1through 8) will beprovided forpublic i!'comment. 

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Prior to initiating a detailed impact analysis, the Department will develop information on the present and past industry structure and market characteristics ofthe product(s) Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 1Figure 1: Water Heater Rulemaking Framework Approaches Key-lnputs Analysis Kev-Outputs Industry Review Identity Firms/ Products Preliminary Market Quantitative Analysis Historical Information & Technology Qualitative Analysis-inlemrews Market Firm Segmentation Characterization Existing Technology Options Identification & Prototype Designs Screening Analysis ..... ' 3 - ,S .::: . : ' ;:i Design-Option Approachn : .::. .' : :i : CostModie-Leveling Approacn h ' Efency-LevelApp cn |Efficiency/Pe rformance e ... ,.:alysis :'

· *S . Energy rates 'I".::' ". :i: .o Maintenance/Service Costs : '' -:.:.. :'::iii: : .... _. Bl . * Average Payback with Uncertainty .Market Survey ApproacnPice Retail P. -cs . I| t i · * Average Lile-cycle Cost witn Uncerainly Marke-Surey---_ -E--' Price Retail Pnrices _ .. ::.. " : l . . : :::: --" _ Expen Forecasts- Base Case .... :. *Other .. 

# ; Payback Energy savings Expert Forecasts
. -Retail Pnces yl:abNai n * Net Present Value Models-REM. REEPS etc. hpme: - :: -. : :-. *Housing demand *Base Cas. . .. . *Histoical shipments . Other efficienc. :ies :. *Product saturation Efficiy .' *Voluntary initiatives dtbion gi. - ANOPR Analysis ' 

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* .- 3BR s E .: f R _______-Peak-Demand Reductions Emission rates Environmental Utility Revenue Losses . Utility oad factors : : Utility Impacts issions Analysis Emissions Revised NOPR FINAL RULE Revise Analysis

Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11,1997Figure 1: Water Heater Rulemaking Framework ADoroaches Keyv-lnpus Analyvsis Kyu ts Industry Review Idently Fims/ Products

- preliminary Market QuanitasteAnalysis Histortcal Intormation &Technology Cuallalitve Analysis--irteMiws Maket/ Firm Segmentation Characteriation Exuting Technology Options · 

# I Identification& prottype Deslns __ _ · Screening Analysis. Doeign-Option Approach j ; Cost Modeling Approacn h Eicency-LevetAppoach Eiclency/Performance Energy rates 8

. : Malntananca/Senrce Costs :~~~~~~~ :~~~~~~~ Average Paybackwith Uncertainty i -(pwI-^kO^'"^^S

at. TM *Average Lte-cycle Cost with Unofartavly Market SurveyApproacnh nc Re Pes Expert Forecasts BaseCase .. S ' eficiencies. Payback

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. ntV:Q1 Rellstail Pricetatoal Ne Pren V Models-REM. REEPS etc. EHistoricalfhipmenl A cCtsn e aOterflteCnaes r b Product saturation Effcidi *Voluntary Initiatives
Sub-group Analyses · ' Bioneenng .4 .... k,:t.!!!:~

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·oat (C).[Price (P). Revis·ed NOPRage : . e . w.l Unom;r'y

FINAL RULE | Revse AnalysisRL

E Draft wheatenr.wpd June 11, 1997l · Prolluot Saturatnironmentac , sto CEfe .:":; (C), Priaaterl. ... e ii, T : : I _ANOPR Analysis'Tt !.......... Financial' . ~

.. ¢:N.:A"L RULE Revise' Analysis+ Draft wheaten-Wpd Junell,1997~~~~~~~~~~concerned. This activity will consist ofboth quantitative and qualitative efforts to assess the industry and products based onpublicly available information. Issues tobe addressed include the following: manufacturer market share and characteristics; trends in the number offirms; the financial situation ofmanufacturers; existing non-regulatory efficiency improvement initiatives; and trends in product characteristics and retail markets. The information collected will serve as resource material to be used throughoutithe rulemaking. Forinstance, historical product shipments and prices wil.. u tohelp predict future prices and shipments. Market structure dataill be ly useful to conducting the competitive impacts analysis. I ,,

The Department has initiated amarket assessment ::watWr heater industr ' completed, collected information will be distributed "ent. Are thereelementsnotmentionedabove whichshidb:c':ated intothe preliminarymarketassessment? Canyou identify.existingn riaorvefficiency improvementinitiatives? ... 1.2 Technology Assessment ' : ' Information relative to existing ti' ology otions and rototype designs will be used as input to a screening analysis. . ii:sultatioi with inteiested parties, the Department will develop alist ofdesign opt.ioi"" forcons..i on., tially, the candidate design options will eno s all thos hlogies c :i: be technologically feasible.

In Novei theued a Technical Support Document including 

### supporting a| water""' (1993 TSD). The document described design options 

### al terheaters; 2) electric storage water heaters; 3) oil-fired water heates; and d) gas4- istantaneous water heaters. Appendix B ofthis framework, Tecnology Assess :':i Screening Analysis, updates the 1993 TSD's technology :"otions. Note: Appendix B: illbe distributed atthe June 24, 1997, workshop. ::!S: t "'-ia ry Baseline Shipments Forecast T.eh:e'partment intends to develop abase case forecast ofproduct shipments in absence ofnew standards. This forecast will require an assessment ofthe impacts ofpast and existing non-regulatory efforts bymanufacturers, utilities and otherinterested parties. DOE will seek information on the actual impacts ofsuch initiatives to date, but will also Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 3consider information presented regarding the possible impacts that any existing initiatives might have in the future. Such information could include ademonstration ofthe steps manufacturers, distribution channels, utilities or others will take to realize such voluntary efficiency improvements. The baseline shipments forecast will be used as input to three-subsequent analyses: the National Benefits Analysis (Section 8.0); theConsumer Life-Cycle Analysis (Secsion 5.0); and the Consumer Sub-Group Analysis (Section 10.1). To perform the NtSional Benefits Analysis, a forecast ofshipment weighted product efficiency/i|er_ ments of new products sold is needed tothe year 2030. To assess:s. averag i on the affected consumer population and the distribution ofth Impacts o" ' r subgroups, a forecast ofproduct shipments by efficiency,"el is needc :ne w .o !'w standard would come into effect.

The Department will begin to prepare a strawman bas i'eitent forecast forwater heaters. This forecast will include a distribution o-:ipm: fficency level. Historical product shipments and discussions with.p..arties invlerket-based initiatives for increasing the sales ofhigh effidels ie shipments forecasts. Appendix A contains a samplep .. C'.l' ecast Daa equest" which could be used to solicit shipment forecasts for ea"Ei..... at.. heater considered. What existingmarket-basedinitiatives(i.e. D-Mprogr etc.)shouldDOEconsider? Whatotherapproachescould b.'iUsed to eqablishthease-caseshipmentforecast? What informationsourcesshoh .. 'ipast shipe..ntdata efficiency level? Pleasecomment on thesampledatarequ.est iAppendi 

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The screeiHnists oo f tree tasks: selecting product classes; selecting baseline-units; andrev..iwi.gand selecting design options for further analysis. :.. g . ..: .l.. .il ' " 2.1,1.Product Classes,': - ProAhduct types are seFprated into classes based on the type ofenergy used, and capacity or :p.iformance-related..features that provide utility to the consumer and affect efficiency. ihrernt energy-,, eficiency standards will apply to different product classes. In general, ; 

### a se .arendeiftd usobtaineg i in discussions with appliance |'" 

### duactU.rs, trade associations, and other interested parties.

Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 4The product classes listed in the 1993 TSDincluded: 1)Gas-fired storage; 2) Electric storage; 3) Oil-fired storage; 4) Gas-fired instantaneous and; 5) Electric instantaneous. Electric heatpump water heaters were included as a design option for electric storage water heaters. Electric instantaneous and small storage water heaters were not analyzed. Standards will be developed only for classes 1,2 and 3. Theefficiency levels determined for storage water heaters will apply toclasses 4 and 5 according to fuel type. The Department intends to maintain theproduct classes specified i.^ : .3TSD. Design options within the product class will be screenediording neria specified in Section 2.3. . Doyouagreewith theproductclassesspecified? . " 2.2 Baseline Units Defining a baseline unit is the starting point for analyzing desi f. for improving energy efficiency. For each product class, the ba nit gen er e sents a model with the maximum allowable energy use spe l ational't:vy Conservation Act (NAECA), as amended. Other than e:ency iijjnorprated in the baseline unit are representative ofthe "low-end'i.i."nhit within'"""he":: li. *D

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Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997(a) Gas-Fired Storage Water Heaters The Department has previously specified a baseline model ofgas-fired storage water heaters. It is described as abottom-fired, 40-gallon, glass-lined steel tank with a 3-inch center flue. The input rate is 34 kBtu/hr, with apilot rated at400 Btu/hr. The tank is insulated with one inch ofpolyurethane foam. The average EF formodels on the market in 1995 was 0.564 and the average recovery was 0.764. The Department intendto use values of0.56 EF and 0.76 average recovery for the re-analysis. , . Are thesesoundvalues? a (b) Oil-Fired Storage Water Heaters -. , Based on discussions with oil water heater manufact"i"rs held i1995 aba " "i water heater was characterized. This model has ara''iume of32 gallons"' n insulated with 1.5 inches offibreglass squeezed into i :avity surrounding the central tank. The input rate is 0.65 gallons per hour Q25 Btu/hr. It has an EF of0.53, the minimum allowed by NAECA. The first hour:"i i15 gallons, and the recovery efficiency is 0.73. The tank is a cylinder 18 inches ::i: erand 32.7 inches high, pierced by a 6 inch diameter flue along tfh ial axis. Th er motor, which powers both the blower and oil pump, is raie':i'l:i..:282 watt No auxiliary power is consumed during standby. .... Is thisdescriptionappropriate? ... l. . .. (c) Electric Storage Water Heaies i . The Department intends to s'cify abasW'ie modlm The baseline is described as a 50 gallon g:lss-lined steelit 'w-ith one i :"lurethane foam. The heater has two elem. ::hi with anin:4,500 w i e elements are interlocked so that only one ca ""e gized ai-lt ihebaseline EF is0.86. Is thedesAcr . .l vaid ? 2ii esign Options :flowing the develop'ient ofan initial listofdesign options during the technology i!sessment, the Department, in consultation with interested parties, will review each

.i'sign optionto dtermine ifit is practicable to manufacture, install and service; would I'".!selyimpait product utility or product availability; or would have adverse impacts on Mth'i

" '.j-i -fety. Design options not eliminated in the screening process will be :con'iered further in the engineering analysis.
Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 6The 1993 TSD identified product categories and narrowed the range ofdesign options beingconsidered forthe development oftechnically feasible designs. Building on past analysis and incorporating public comments to the 1994 NOPR, a draft screening analysis is being prepared andwill beprovided at the June 24, 1997, workshop for review and comment from stakeholders. Taking into consideration these inputs, the Department will identify design options it believes should be considered for further analysis. The new rulemaking process provides forthe distribution ofdraft analyticala i:ults for peerand stakeholder review. These reviews will provide critical i-: 

### iescreening analysis. Who wouldyou suggestperformthepeerreview?

.... 3.0 Engineering Analysis The purpose ofthe engineering analysis is to estimate the ener b:""i potential ofthe individual orcombinations ofdesign options a i-aated in te ius screening analysis. The Department, in consultatio:l tioIrs will 

### :the most appropriate means available to determin energy "i .Mi:,i ncuding an overall system approach or engineering modeling. Ranges anri"taies inperformance will be established. The energy savings,':measures.developediihe engineering analysis will be combined with end-user costs.i:he life...cycle cost analysis. The engineering analysis invoJles adding 

### .di'idu!?r combinations ofdesign options to the baseli"e unit describiection 2. e "fficiencyrelationship will be deve l h ow thit f:turer cos:T eving increased efficiency. The efficiec l correspo ivarious design option combinations will be determined from ma'ft : .data subMit a, en available, and from DOE engineering calculations ."':"- |simates w"''iilbeftained from detailed incremental cost data disaggre ga e ipurcha parts and material, shipping/packaging and investment. ^.t!llgMI:.::..

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... ,". S iil ' ' :'Rfii TIe use ofa componetsed engineering analysis provides useful information including hi:e identification of otential technological paths manufacturers could use to achieve i:creased product e.ergy efficiency. It also allows theuse ofengineering models to e.iulate theenery consumption ofdifferent design configurations under various use

i"its.. and.,. aplications. Tli"D:partment recognizes that the manufacturer cost information derived in a component-based analysis doesnot reflect the variability in design strategies and cost structures that can exist between manufacturers. Therefore, the Department plans to derive additional manufacturing cost estimates, using other approaches developed in Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 7consultation with interested parties. These additional estimates could, forexample, be based on alternative assumptions as to the elements ofmanufacturing cost. These costs will be usedboth for the engineering analysis and the manufacturer impact analysis. Section 4.0 contains amore detailed discussion of approaches to estimating manufacturing costs.

The 1993 TSD's cost data forthe more common design options forelectric and'ias-fired storage water heaters were obtained from information provided byrn facirs to GAMA and from a report prepared byADM Associates. c-he cost GA AMA was reported as arange to maintain the confidentiality ofco:'provided ".ial manufacturers. DOE used the midpoint values ofthiis:ge to perl" "l eering analysis. Foroil-fired storage water heaters, cost da :formost.: gn opi areportby ADM Associates, Inc. Important issues arise withthe current data which the' seeks to address with stakeholders at theJune 24, 1997 workshop. 1. OLD DATA: The cost datathe Department urrentliCY: .. .sisbased on a 1987 report by ADM Associates and a. irvey ofni" 'rers provided by GAMA. 2. UNCERTAINTY: Uncertainty a't the::-.inufa ciring each design option was characterized by DE for a 9%i 

### o. .terval. This uncertainty information was reviewed and was caed forw ihe analysis onlyfor the maxtech design option... 3. VARIABILITY: Curi data does'ot allow- rcost variations between firms needed for the manufrer im l ;.analysi sub-groups ofmanufacturers. 4. APROACH: "nponent t OE currently holds could be updated a .:''"nufactu 

### ''"-i. submit ' "ir-.s using an efficiency level approach. 5. ''Y..:.TYPE 

### P i ' partment is committed to considering prototypes in ''"'e"ng and e'"':jayses. 6. MOLiiie Dep^"' 'seeking comment on the selection ofappropriate .ek...'":el such :WATSIM and TANK. ,t Manufacturing Costs *??- .ddition t beiu' sed in conjunction with theEngineering Analysis, manufacturing qaxeni- eeded:fbor the manufacturer impact analysis and are usedas one means of ' :':"'e~tail prices. The manufacturing costs used for the industry cash flow .i.""''--are the "average" costs ofachieving a specified efficiency level - within a range ofuncertainty. Forthe manufacturer sub-group analysis, only those costs representative ofthe subject sub-group are used. Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 8The Department believes that the existing data set, ascurrently reported, cannot be used for manufacturer impact analyses. TheDepartment-intends to collect new cost information from manufacturers. The data collection period is scheduled to occur during the months ofJuly and August, 1997. DOE prefers that individual manufacturer data sets be submitted to athird party contractor for statistical treatment and subsequent analysis. Isthe datacollection time frameacceptable? Canindividualmanufacturers:i:mit data? .& ,, 4.1 Characterizing Uncertainty Consistent with the process rule, DOE will place a ri the average manufacturing cost ofachieving various efficiency range ofcost sed both in the industry cashflow analysis and in one appro.: erating retail prices for the consumer life-cycle cost analysis. ..

In the 1993 TSD, DOE estimated the un for confidence level) for incremental costs provided for each"esign in this framework, DOE isproposing a modification to future ata colleion: so that the cost estimates reported be bound by arange. For.xampleanufact Would be asked toprovide their best point estimate and a,. t*e describing the lowst and highest values they consider likely. Appendix 

### i-escribes i.reater del two sample data requests, the statistical treatment whic.h ild resulthe n ation provided, and possible reportigimethods . ... . rtment - ... with interested parties to discuss the Are th!er K m;.mve app'''r" it h acteri zing uncertaintyinaveragemanufacturing costs? .4 Variability in CQ e'tween Manufacturers h.::e Department is c:mmitted to assessing the differential impacts ofstandards on i'fferent manufac.ftrs. The detailed sub-group analysis will entail calculating cashflows

.arately fore' class ofmanufacturer defined. Ifappropriate, the Government Ct Model (GRIM) analysis willbe performed foreach firm (see ''.'i '' " ' :lfor a sample data input).

Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 9The Department prefers receiving disaggregated cost data from all manufacturers. The company specific cost information will be used to perform GRIM analysis foreach manufacturer or manufacturer subgroup. TheDepartmentisopen tosuggestionsregardingthemechanicsofgenerating sub-group specificGRIManalysiswhich willstillallow formanufacturer confidentialityand appropriate stakeholderreview. . 4.3 Costing Approach/Engineering Analysis .^. . Three methodologies canbe used to generate manufa:ring cosi these 'r:....^: include: the DESIGN-OPTION APPROACH, report e n.mental cost design options to abaseline model; the EFFICIENC 

### C-,- L APPROACH, rep ig relative costs ofachieving energy efficiency improveymrin " ithe COSTASSESSMENT APPROACH which requires a "bott:'s":ctui:arcturing cost assessment based on a detailed bill ofmaterials. This assess": w idbe performed by athird-party contractor. The Department will sekii.blic input':ii 

### H'of these approaches should be used during a rulema 

### i.: ':.

The 1993 TSD used industry cost d.tabasedo the DBE -OPTION APPROACH. The Department believes that t...ta is nt 

### isufficienito perform a manufacturing impact analysis due to variatii betwee-lie desig :apths manufacturers will use. The Dep.rtment is con ig supple"i"-existing data with new data generated byt...E"CIENC 'ppr approaci '"te d to report cost data disaggregated into GRIM T' -- gories: A!:'-" e;, detailed explanation ofthis approach appears in Should "ac ' " ".rer da: il"ibmittal beconducted usingtheEFFICIENCY- LEVEi :pproac l t 'e.s gn-optionapproachis used, willthe databe appropriate formanufacturerim ''" yvsis usingthe GRIMmodel? '"" Proprietary.eiign

.... D:e:artE '- /w-ill consider in its analysis all design options that are commercially ; '""i- :'..es present in a working prototype, including proprietary designs. Proprietary .'l '" wi'l 'befully considered in the Department's engineering and economic analyses.
Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 10DOE isconsidering several proprietary designs in its technology assessment and screening analysis (Appendix B). Are thereother proprietary designsthattheDepartmentshouldconsider?If so, whatare they andwhatstageofdevelopmentarethey in? HowshouldDOEcollectandreport costdata for proprietary design?

-.. a 5.0 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Analysis i..j ...... - The effect ofstandards on individual consumers inclus a chan i oper'ea (usuallydecreased) and a change inpurchase price (us ly incased). Then e analyzed bycalculating the life-cycle cost (LCC) usinri gine perfing p erforata forenergy consumption and equipment retail prices w . e. derived in anumber of ways (see Section 6.0). Inputs to the LCC calculation ic' iii'stalled consumer cost (purchase price plus installation cost), operating expenses (ei' maintenance costs), lifetime ofthe appliance and adiscount rai Under the Process Rule in the ANOPR sta ti'he :ife-ce'analysis will be conducted using typical ranges ofvaluesoir appl -ce''e, fuel costs, energy usage and discount rates. Design opts whicihave paperiods that exceed the average life oftheproduct or whi"i'bause lifec'ycle costncreases will not be considered further. The detailed impact cal":ation, conducted aft the ANOPR, will have a comprehensive assessment of ',acts oni-groups: onsumers as described in Section 10.0. Also WiP-:.rocessR lliMhe ANOR :stage, uncertainty analysis willbe conducted on seve :ii.ical vai'e"" . ibed. During the post-ANOPR consumer analysis (Section I103" "ii:artme"' ' hi. auate additional parameters including: variations in regional.e y. .. i:::ns in M::gy use and variations in installation costs. Based on the results eiif-cycle cost analysis, DOE will select candidate standard le1ils for analysis. Th ge ofcandidate standard levels will typically include: (a) the .::st energy efficient combination ofdesign options or most energy efficient level; (b) the -mnbination ofdesiu?options or efficiency level with the lowest life-cycle cost; and (c) a ii ::nbination ofdegn options or efficiency level with a simple payback period ofnot iI"II-than thre.lyiars. Additionally, candidate standard levelsthat incorporate _i---'"""-l..'phnologies or fill in large gaps between efficiency levels ofothercandidate

. l'"'l

:i'evels may be selected.
Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 11For water heaters it will be necessary to determine input values for several variables. Retail Prices: The determination ofprices for water heaters is described in Section 6.0. Annual Hot Water Use: The engineering analysis considers the energy savings potential ofdesign options by referring to the Department's Test Procedure. Forlife-cycle cost and payback analysis, the Department will conduct sensitivity analysis at several different levels ofannual water use and temperatures. In Section 10: Consumer Impacaithe Department will increase the scope ofthe analysis to identify the cteaubpopulations and quantify their impacts. Energy Prices: The life-cycle cost analysis will use hji" d low p"i,"s;o:pfnational average electricity, gas, and oil prices toresidential Thtomers foe 

### '' A. The ;T present Energy Information Administration (EIA) AXiual Ener utlooed 

### the default source ofprojections forthis uncertaintyi.. :sisihe Applianc Advisory Committee (Advisory Committee) is curr..I:stigating alternative methods offorecasting future energyprices forrecor - on tothe Department. Lifetime: Forthe purposes ofthe life-cycle analys'i t O 10. 1years forelectric, 

### 10.88 for gas, and 11.0 for oil wereused forthe 19I3 anally ei will be reviewed. Discount Rate: Discount rates of 2%, 6% and. 

### -net ofinflii l be considered. Maintenance, Service, and Installation Co " ;time artment w. donsider expected changes to maintenance, service and intaitionri ' wat er heatters, ifapplicable. This includes costs such as supplying i'ectricit o't" ieiter, relining the vent system or adding acondensate draim . -, 

### 6.0 Prics. How i i ring cosid^..ciated margins, associated with standards, are passedthrough

### F mli:'m: ifactures 

### ""mers has an impact on both consumers and manufactu"r : : nsumer an fcturer economics are linked and inversely related. Forthis rea e ces us'the life-cycle cost analysis need tobe reconciled 

### with maifacturei& : 6f Retail Prices: Lit ie Cost Analysis .ider the Process Ri:e, at thepre-ANOPR stage, aconsumer life-cycle cost curve, based in average retail pries, is used to perform an initial selection ofpotential standards '"yels. Retail pnric are needed for abase case, absent new standards, and for all '":ce"ncy le:v.. : be considered. Several approaches have been described to obtain

.. e :e : .-.-..:rces. Potential approaches include: 1)conducting a survey ofexisting prices : m"":"arket; 2) surveying manufacturers and other market experts topredict consumer willingness topay higher prices; 3) applying various mark-ups over variable manufacturing costs. Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 12

CTheDepartment believes that there is value in using various assumptions aboutcost passthrough that willbe reflected in price forecast approaches. The output ofthis analysis will be atable describing retail prices for each possible efficiency level which assumes that each level represents anew minimum efficiency standard. Consistent with the Process Rule, and building on the estimates generated by the various approaches, new retail prices would be described within arange ofuncertainty.

The Department intends to use all the approaches described above en estimates offuture prices and will conduct uncertainty analysis wihin ther r" prices generated. The market assessment document describ..i..:ectior ""llid clude any market pricing information currently available. Then"ufacturi i'*...ib.. s in . Appendix C include arequest for the estimated inc ; se in retal ;rice r" ls :; .E:. standard. Mark-up approaches toprice determinatw^ill bonducted by .r Department and submitted for review. Is theproposed process forgeneratingretail prices.id`4W l interested partiesbe willing toprovideestimatesofthe futureprices? How shoWonns iderthedifferent mark-upstructuresrelativetodistribution cmhki, 

### ": " : ' ...... DOE will use an average distribitnark- o relate t retail prices generated for the life-cycle cost analysis and marncturer pries require to conduct the industry cashflow analysis. Distributor mark-u rerep(oe in the sket assessment document from Section 11. The samesr, range of generated for retail prices willbe used fl facturqerd t ce the 

### i fs assumed constant.

Are there manufacturers be willingtoprovideestimatesof

..: ' ........... . :.. 6.2 MShipments ...... described in |ction 1.3, the Department intends to develop abase case forecast of D pw shimehlts uin the absence ofnew standards. This initial forecast will incorporate _ifylac fpaand exist and ing non-regulatory efforts by manufacturers, utilities and Forall candidate standards levels, shipment forecasts are required in order to calculate the national benefits ofstandards (energy savings and consumer life-cycle costs) andto Draft wheater.wpa June 11, 1997 13 ~::~:i~~~::::: :: :::'''i''''j~-$ :'. ':.....calculate the future cashflows ofmanufacturers. DOE proposes to use three approaches to conduct these forecasts including: 1)a simple spreadsheet approach to derive shipments based on thekey market drivers for the particular product; 2) larger models to consider additional variables (i.e. retirement functions, price elasticities, etc.), and, 3) expertjudgment of rulemaking participants and observation ofhistorical trends to generate new forecasts. Because models cannot adequately simulate short-term effects, DOE will plac&! considerable weight on expert forecasts forshort term shipments est.i.:tes. .:;$ipment forecasts previously developed will be combined through. senario i.. nd arange of uncertainty will be carried forward into both national b'its and ' "w .alysis. Are therealternateapproachesto forecastingshi"'it.:..?h' will intre.'' provideshipmentforecastsforvariousefficiency 1 " -" :::" :". 8.0 Preliminary National Benefits Analysis i ... In Section 6.0. the life-cycle cost and en savi 

### -ivdua Fbnsumers is estimated. In this section, aprelimina assessn;it'ate impacts atthe national level isconducted. Measurs'of impatto be rni'"'"e'include the average consumer payback, the net preset ailue of.ttal consumer life-cycle costs, national energy savings and national en"p yment .i:

..:,.': .:? . . *"-*?:%iiSWi:: ....

... iyyis:~ 8.1 Inputsto Forecasts:: Analy.z'iripacts o.fc? '".nergy-e an' standards requires a comparison of projet" : residen':l""' " Iconsumr'pon with and without standards. The cases withoutr:At a .are refi :.: base case projections. The forecasts contain projections' itnergy cod" t, ofof new appliances, annual appliance shipments and the prce" " '._ sed appia". The derivations ofthe base case forecast are describ ii::eli i standards case forecasts are discussed.in Section 7.0. Appraches to dete'rm i tail prices are described in Section 6.0.

':'e base case shipmnts forecast developed under Section 1.3 will incorporate the likely ''fects ofmarket ri'c:es and of any non-regulatory initiatives. :"2lCalculatio.rfEnergy Savings _:i :t 'intends to calculate national energy consumption for each yearbeginning 

### ""e~""' e: tied effective date ofthe standards. Aggregate energy consumption willbe calculated forthe base case and each candidate standards level. This calculation may be done by one ormore alternative approaches, including: 1)theuse of a simple spreadsheet; 2) the use ofdetailed end-use energy models such as theLawrence Berkeley National Draft wheaterl.vpd June 11, 1997 14Laboratory's Residential Energy Model (REM) or theEnergy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS); and 3) by multiplying shipment forecasts by unitenergy savings.

For the water heaterrulemaking, the Department plans to use the REM and simple spreadsheet models. '.:.. .. : Doyou agreewith the use ofthesetools? ! 8.3 Consumer Net Present Value and Payback . K The national netpresent value ofthe candidate standias levels lcula difference in LCC, base case minus standards case. cal ion is pe Section 5.0, except that a shipment weighted LCC is d using the shipd energy efficiency distribution forecasts.from Section " 8.4 Employment Impacts Two impacts on employment are possible from,: g ards, direand indirect impacts. Direct employment impacts would i- dards le change in the number ofemployees at manufacturing . tt an tt pply f service firms. These direct impacts are estimated in ,beymanuf analysis described in Section 12.0. Indirect impacts may.-r-sult froni'oth e itres shifting among goods (substitution effect), and income...:nging, hich willJd to a change in overall expenditure levels (income effic:.The Diartment i urrently seeking input on appropriate methods to estin indireci ploymeffects ofstandards.

. :>....... .... ii.....~oran i i^ rmodeib which canbe usedto assessindirect 

### mp 9.0.:flRevised Pre-AOR i:.lyses .V :der the Process Ril, based on consideration ofthe comments received for the .NOPR, any necessar changes to the pre-ANOPR analyses or the candidate standards els

willbe ma.. Ifmajor changes are required at this stage, interested parties will be '"- _.an oO nity to review the revised analyses. For water heaters, aworkshop will be conducted to review and comment the analysis sections normally conducted in the pre-ANOPR stage as specified in the new process. Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 1510.0 Consumer Impacts 10.1 Consumer Sub-group Analysis TheDepartment will evaluate variations in regional energyprices, variations in energy use and variations in installation costs that might affect the net present value ofa standard to consumer sub-populations. To the extent possible, DOE will obtain estimates ofthe variability in each input variable andconsider this variability in its calculation of consumer impacts. The variability in each input variable and likely sources of .: information will be discussed with stakeholders. 10.1.1 Variations in Energy Prices X Energy prices vary regionally across the country. DOEi-poses to " 'sitivity ? analyses considering the fraction ofconsumers facingparticular vic'.ie ...i range in values ofchange oflife-cycle costs for the ('ributio.q' househ:' o ' tie calculated. The analysis will be structured to answe:4"aWs' uch as: How?~y' households are better-off with standards and by how "'ii oW many household are not better offand by how much?

Areyouawareof datasources thattheDep i igouldconIi"i"f thisanalysis? Doyou havesuggestionson appropriatai :'wr'a .. tinonanidUnalysis methods? Which additionalvariablesshouldtheiepartms i s analysis?

....

.... ?'-'':-:' : 10.1.2 Variations in Energy,Ir .e a Variations in energy use r rt depend on factors such as: climate, 4 -tye ofhousebhi^,ple in ho c . Annual energy use can be estimated bya 1 n base iteppted tes edure orit can be measured directly in the field. 'nment wile sensitivity analyses to consider how differences in energy use'i ct sub-gnsofcnsumers.

The Department is Akillldadditional dis-aggregated water consumption data to conduct jts sub-group analyS ... Are you awareof iy datawhich reflectvariationsin consumers' waterheater speration? 10613 FirstCost Increases The Department will be sensitive to first cost increases to avoid negative impacts to identifiable population groups such as low-income, elderly, minorities etc. Additionally, Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 16the Department will assess the likely impacts offirstcost increases on product sales and fuel switching.

The Department is sensitive to thepotentially high first cost increases for high efficiency water heaters including thepotential increase in installation and maintenance costs (e.g. venting requirement.) Whatarethepotentialimpactsofalarge firstcost increaseon co er: ordability, financing,etc.). Canyou suggestmethods anddatathe. efpartm use in

conductingitsanalysis? What informationexists on ''mer d .SI .i-ung toswitch It tootherproductclasses? 10.2 Consumer Participation The Department will seek to inform and involve conptms cInsumer representatives in the process ofdeveloping standards. This will include n g fconsumer representatives during the rulemaking process a ere approking direct consumer input.

...... ":: . .. : .. . .: . .... ........ 

### .~-,.:" . ..... ........ , Currently, the Department is documenting vynous ma se initiatives and market demonstration projects for higicienc|ater heat programs. Results ofthese projects are expected tobe aoble pr~i-o thepug.cation ofthe revised NOPR. In addition, the Advisory go"ttee is ssin ssue ofconsumerparticipation and m ay 

### t c o hich 

### t w

### ill 

### consider. Thbel any 

### projectswhichtheDepartmentshouldinvestigate? AreyoU b swtfcr otherorganizations thattheDepartmentshould 

### contact? iugesti :w.-o btaniningincreased consumerinputto thewater he.ating

### n.. a..h.. re:-ss 

### iapin

v"' I''

. 

## ... 11i.0 IndustryCas .low 

### he Departmentntends to perform an industry cashflow analysis. This analysis willuse d ^e mo

aEturing costs (withuncertainty) under Section4.0, shipments forecasts foas Section 7.0 andprice forecasts from Section 6.4. Financial information, iequiired as an input toGRIM, will be developed based on publicly available data and confidentially submitted manufacturer information. Draft wheateri.wpd 

### June 11, 1997 17For discussion purposes, the Department has prepared alistofdefault financial values to be used in the GRIM industry analysis. These were calculated by studying publicly available financial statements ofmanufacturers and considering values used in previous analysis. Refer to Appendix D: Financial Values for GRIM Analysis. Are the valuesproposedreasonable? Whatrangeof valuesisappropriate? Who should collectandmaintainanyconfidentialinformation? .

, A .. ,.-.'- 12.0 Manufacturer Sub-group Analysis ;..: 12.1 Manufacturer Sub-groups - . ..... The Department intends to conduct detailed interv ieie w many manufactuires is possible to gain insight into the potential impacts ofs "t ' "iDuring these interviews, DOE will solicit information necessary toevaluate cal.fio I orn.assess competitive, employment and capacity impacts. Firm-specific c'iuulative:'i. .11ll also be considered. ; .-

Which manufacturers shouldbe actirysolicite? ealu value in grouping water heater manufacturers intosub-groups orshoidindivR IManalysis be conducted foreach? More generally, whaouldawil execute..sub-group analysis entail? For example, the Departmei.^ contracould devlop GRIM analysis scenariosjointly with individual manuf andrep rit 4 in financial performance without disclh^ ianufacut1ide ties. A kiy,manufacturers could submit complete GRins incRRiint data. The Department's contractor would then aggrega m 

### sappropu"at n4eport changes in financial parameters. 12.2 Competitive Imn..ts - sessment Lislation directs th pitment to consider any lessening ofcompetition that is likely

'result from standaits. It further directs the Attorney General to gauge the impacts, if

.. ny, ofany lessening`ofcompetition. DOE will make a determined effort to gather and Solport firm-specnifinancial information and impacts. The competitive analysis will : on 'ss'g the impacts to smaller, yet significant, manufacturers. The Department willbegin consulting-the Department ofJustice in the early stages ofthe waterheater rulemaking. Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 1812.3 Cumulative Regulatory Burden The Department will recognize and seek to mitigate the overlapping effects on manufacturers ofnew orrevised DOE standards and otherregulatory actions affecting the same products.

The Department is currently preparing enhancements to the GRIM model to add cumulative regulatory burden calculation capabilities. The Department will rck with the Consumer Product Safety Commission to coordinate any requi : e*ntsiiat may arise from the flammable vapor ignition issue for gas water h ers. Areyouawareof anyotherregulationsthatwould eacumaM. thi rulemaking? .

.......... 13.0 UtilityImpacts The analysis ofutility impacts will include esti:i.-i: margina' 

### i 'n: electric and gas utility costs and revenues. For electric utilient win lculate three primary measures ofutility impact:, 1)avided e oin-:avoidd reliability costs, 2) generation peak load and capacity red ions, 3) i vehis analysis willbe performed bythe Appliance Standards Environmental a ity Model (ASEUM). The Department seeks views on app ate meares ofimpct and analytical methods to evaluate gas utility impacts. '.i. A. . Do te any rens reany howa gasutilityimpactanalysisshouldbe hat considertoassessthe likelihoodandimpactsof fuel switch E146 s Environmentalgina"ysis he standards' analis tracks three types ofenergy-related emissions: sulfur oxides x) nitrous o tes (NOx) and carbon dioxide (CO,). The ASEUM model introduced isused toperform the computations. The emissions ofthese pollutants sparately butno monetary values are assigned. Outside the scope ofthe 'aimanalysis which will not be considered are other types ofenvironmental impacts, such as emissions ofparticulates, carbon monoxide, airtoxins, and volatile organic compounds, generation ofsolid wastes, and water discharges associated with energy use. Draft wheater.wpd June 11, 1997 19Are thereanyadditional factorsthe Department shouldconsider? If so, how?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.::.:g,:- .. ........

....-. .. ::....:..

Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 20 .:5~5:~:!~::~:5::~i~~5i~i~20:

### Appendix A Base case Shipment Forecast: Data Request (Typical) The Department is developing abase case forecast ofproduct shipments in the absence of new standards. This forecast will incorporate an assessment ofthe impacts ofpast and existing non-regulatory efforts by manufacturers, utilities, and other interested parties. To perform the National Analysis, a forecast ofshipment weighted en improvements ofnew products sold is needed to the year 2030. Pleure A. 1to enter your forecast ofchanges in the shipment weightedi iencyucts sold. The current shipment weighted efficiency ofgas-fired ir heaters o.have an EFval e of

____:. .... ..

2000 v 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 :~ ~....... ...........



### Figure A 1: Sh mnt Weighted EF of New Gas Storage Water Heaters ease indicate whak factors/considerations influenced your forecast.

Draft wheateri.wpd June 11, 1997 A-i............Appendix A (continued) Base case Shipment Forecast: Data Request To assess the average economic impact of standards on the affected consumer population and to calculate the distribution ofthis impact to different consumer sub-groups, a forecast ofproduct shipments by efficiency level is needed forthe year the new standard would come into effect. Please use Figure A.2 to profile the expected sales distribution ofnej ducts by efficiency level for the year 2003.
90 1 .......

5 30- 1

Figure A.24 ~idpment Weighted EF Distributionof New Gas Storage Water 'HeatersSale In th Year 2003 PSjase indicate what fatos/considerations influenced your forecast.

Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11,1997 A-2

### Appendix B Technology Assessment and Screening Analysis (will bedistributed attheJune24, 1997workshop) B.1 TechnologyAssessment B.2 Screening Analysis

Draf w. IM.r...

.:' . .. .. ... ... ...

Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11,1997 . B-1 

### iii. . ~? :".::--- ' - - -i- .l .. ,ll l ,'

...s' . ._' .'

~ii$1~ ~ ~!~i~ ~!~!~i8i~ ·

### Appendix C Data Request C.1-Design-Option 

### Approach (page 1) Appliance Type: . Water Heater Yearly Production Volume-(a) = Appliance Class: .:iii Gas-Fired Rated Vollme: 40gallons ~§ g s S iiiii

"ji'i . ... '::a : i , __|_ yVa!ableCosts Total Cost Uncertainty Range Conversion Costs (Fixed) Total Cost Uncertainty Range riD 'Isit < |ei t ta(a) ._ Variable Variable Costs Total (millions ofdollars) Fixed FixedCosts

, " ':.ll f, l. l ,Mateg$ . .Overhead Costs (e) (+/- percentage) () Capital Product (i) Costs ) perentage) (k)

Htc:.)9. ':S'f .i .(d) (( $perUnit) Maximum Minimum Costs(g),(h) Design Costs (millions) Maximum Minimum DOE Anticipated l)siglio.pns (2, 1213 [41 1 1 151 16] (7) [81 [9], [101 III I Baseline : !: . C 2 Heat Traps ,.f., CD 3 R-16 Insulation 4 4 R-25 Insulation . 5 Advanced Insulation . .::. 9 ;. -4 6111D 7 Fue Damper (electro-mechancial) ':i: 6:.v = = -_ _ _ 8 Flue Damper (bouyancy operated) . ..... ' :Sf :.j j ., . 9 Improved Flue Baffle _____ ^ 10 Multiple Flues _____ '... _ :
. IImproved Combustion Chamber :: ::ii.: .. 12 Submerged Combustion Chamber. : :a _ __ _ : 13wo Phase Thermosiphon _____ .__ __ ______ ___i: i

_ 14 Side Arm HeaterS gF iiii! .... I Direct Vent _____:__ .:_____ s.;: 16 Power Vent ______ __.': . 17 Power.Vent w/ Flue Gas Dilution

_____ 18 Plastic Tank _____ E.. 19 Condensing ________ _____ 20 Pulse Condensing :_ · _. 21 TPV Generator 22Submerged Combustion_ __ _ 23 irectly Fired _ __ ___. 9C-)t

### Data Request C.1-Design-Option Approach (page 2) Appliance Type: Water Heater Appliance Class:. li Gas-Fired Rated Volume: l ::: ;..i 40 gallons ___i_;__ E.. .s lssirs

ss .WeSrgy Data (when designoption applieddirectlyto Baseline) (I) Uncertainty Range e ^1111. fl 78? .. ::;:;^irl I "(n) ( 0) Gas(p) Elec (q) Gas (r) Elc (s) percenage) (t) DOE Anticipated Desi tions [131 [14) [15) 1161 [171 {181 [191 1201


# _ _E sssssss'S''fi' ... I 1 Baseline

________ c 2 Heat Traps I:___i |:F..

_ 3 R-16 Insulation ;1 I. s 4 R-25 Insulation ______ _ : ( i .5 Advanced Insulation . ____ 7 Flue Damper (electro-mechancial) ' E's 8 Flue Damper (bouyancy operated) , "f:?.' ' .. . :; : : 9Improved Flue Baffle i 10 Multiple Flues Improved Combustion Chamber
____ . 12 Submerged Combustion Chamber ____.. .. : . 13 Two Phase Thermosiphon _____: i. 14Side Arm Heaterl ii S ::: . .. 15Direct Vent _____ ______ |1_ 16 Power Vent ________ :: ... 17 Power Vent w FlueGas Dilution
_____ __ 18 Plastic Tanki___________ 19 Condensing C________

__________ 20 seCondensing

_______ 21 TPV Generator _________ __ 22 Submerged Combustion __ ____ 23 Directly Fired ______ ______ 

## 0

_ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _.;

### Data Request C.1-Design-Option Approach (page 3) Appliance Type: ... Water Heater

·, iAppliance Class: ii~ !i:. Gas-Fired ;:: Rated Volume: 40 gallons

I Baseline ____ 'Ii::. .. ::' ;: § 2 Heat Trapssll . :^:: -. o. 3 R-16 Insulation; _ i
- 4 R-25 Insulation!i!!i!"i D Comments Estimated 6. : ..... sRetail Pi.e '::ID___________::_[1i:<' iiiiy'__.>:i______.._

7 F a ele a ctro-mechancial) .. H8 lue a t mraed)ps (bouncy_ : o 19 Improved FlueBaffle ilo n .r. R i 6Insulation :k:':

0 nsulatipe Flues 2I Improved Combustion Chamberor.! ::::. : 12SubmergedCombustion Chamber. .ss.. s :. 13 Two PhaseThermosiphon
- __ .s z . _ 14 SideArmHeater :i. Ei. E S ___: " e 15 irect VentD mEancy 'at) 16 Power Vent_ ____jE____ :E__.:_I". I 17 Power Vent w/ Flue Gas Dilution ______:__ .t: ::~:::.. 18 Plastic Tank Re s . 19 CondensingR .- _____________ __ ___ 20 Pulse Condensing
________________ .... E. 21 TPV Generator ____ 1 '- 22 Submerged Combustion Chambe " :... T23 Directly Fired ____....._ s> '": CA -___________ ____:'i M ^^^'^^^ - - -^"^"'^^" - - *- - ^^^ - ^^ - - "^^ - - ^^^^"^ - ^ - "^^^^" - - ^^ - ^^^ - '^^ - * l - *^^ -- *^^^*^^ - *^ - '^*^^ - ^ - |«^|'llilpi**^^"^*^^^^TM^**^i^*i^^^*«^^^« _^^>_»^^.^-_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~:"': :i:: :Data Request C1: Design-Option Approach Footnotes forWater Heaters This data request is consistent with the historical DOE approach to gathering cost and efficiency data. Forthis datarequest, consider design options independently, do not combine design options. The Department will consider combinations of design options and perform sensitivity analyses on appropriate variables as suggested by stakeholders. Appliance Class: Gas-Fired (a) Assume a constant production volume atthe level.:anticipa' " most common model for the year the new standard wld": come:y2002). (b) Material costs include material and parts. .. (c) Burdened labor rate includes direct labor and 

### c inge-ben.+ cost 

### .' (d) Overhead includes factory overhead excludilepre on. Include d andvariable components. (e) Total ofcolumns numbered [1] through [3]. (f) Show the range ofexpected variable costs ex.... " aximum value (% over column [4]) and aminimum value (% below 1olumn . (g) Forpurposes ofthis analysis assume a 5:ye:.rregulatoi :"y f .amo r tize this cost over 5 years).. (h) Includes investment for such iten.i 'p. .. h.oachinerand plant upgrade and/or expansion and tooling.: (i) Product design conversion cots are the expens 

### ':ts for new product design. These may include prodi|edesign -csts and pnsable factory conversion expenses. Also include i sts incu.ed for newproduct literature and catalogs, product obsolescence'-d vario elated ri"keting expenses. (j) Total of coluered [7 (k) 

### i..low the ranf:ected fi iT'e xpressed as maximum value (% over " [9]) a 'i-i-ium valu % below column [9]). -(1) b'* y data' s-t.ed here (columns [12-18] should be forthe design opti' ped direc-'' " .'0t in"e model and not combined with any other design (m) .tig ' i'" 't.E from i . DOE test procedure, 10CFR 430, Appendix E to Subpart B P::4- Uniform Test Method For Measuring the Energy J..: Consumptio iter Heaters. .ii') Recovery Eiciency (ir,) from DOE testprocedure, 10 CFR 430, Appendix E to Subpart B :Part 430- Uniform Test Method For Measuring theEnergy

. Consumpion ofWater Heaters. .StandlHeatLoss Coefficient (UA) from DOE test procedure, 10 CFR 430, '" Aplpe:ndix E to Subpart B ofPart430- Uniform Test Method For Measuring the " .

ergy Consumption ofWater Heaters. (p) This is the gas consumption when the burner is firing. (q) This is the electricity consumption, for fans, pumps, ignition systems, controls, etc., when the burner is firing. Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 C-4

### (r) Thisis the gas consumption, for thepilot, when theburner is not firing. (s) This is the electricity consumption, for fans, pumps, ignition systems, controls, transformer losses, etc., when the burner isnot firing. (t) Show therange ofexpected EFexpressed as maximum andminimum values. (u) Source forEnergy Use data: test data (T), calculations (C), orestimation (E).

raft . ... :.-.:.- J.'. 1:. 19

Draf-.. -, a!e.J:

Draft wheaterlwpd June 11. 1997 C-5

### Data Request C.1.-Deisign-Option Approach (page 1) 0 Appliance Type: :. Water Heater Yearly Production Volume (a) = Appliance Class (an !l11!!!!. Electric Rated Volume: pjSrigll ; :i., 50 gallons

. ' D '.,:,.,.:: V.^J Costs | Total CostUncertainty Range Conversion Costs (Fixed) Total CostUncertainty Range S ill: ||:g.. . ^^^^^jla.) ~.:S)|Variable Variable Costs Total (millions ofdollars) Fixed Fixed Costs 0 ,;: a''", " ilj taii:'". Overhead Costs (e) (+/ percntage) (c) Capital Product (i) Costs(j) () -percentage) (k)

· ss::e .i"%lll ' l-.(c.

8 ) (d) ( per Unit) Maximum Minimum Cosls(g).,(l) Design Costs (inillions) Maximum Minimum DOE Anticipated Design Op ':. [21 [31 [4] [51 161 (7) [8) [91 [101 [I1)

- I1 Baseline
.. 11 *s ,l?:/i_______ O'D= 2 HeatTraps _.:.ii! i ! i:: SI. 3 R-25 Insulation "f s ___ ___!________ ____ __ _ _ 4 Advanced Insulation
____ i.______ ___ iiiii: ::* ( 5 Plastic Tank ........ ''_ 6 Baseboard 'iiiiii liii 7Off-Peak .'"'i'iiiii ii:, 8 Add-On Heat Pump .l i . i

- 9 ntergral Heat Pump ' s 10 Retun Air Heat Pump l ii.. " R ,> ;

_:i

'' f f R_ ...........- :': ::. .

'<i::i~iiiipici ' .' :,''*S:. _______________________________i__________________ _______ _^ .I..__,__;...___ _______~....-.-.-

';i. :

### Data Request Cs 

### pesign-Option Approach (page 2) 0 Appliance Type: Water Heater

D ApplianceClass Electric alted Volume: l 50 gallons S " -:^ | Ener (when applied directlyto Baseline) (I) Uncertainty Range 'IPl ' '': '· 'lr) UA On-Cycle Off-Cycle Total EF I ~~

# "i~~~~~~$i

..-. (n K ) (°) Elec(p) Elec(q) (+/-percentage) (r) W, . U W Maximum Minimum DOE Anticipated Design O s p [131 [14] 1151 [161 [17] [181 C I Baseline .. _ : (D 2 Heat Traps .':.--:____ 3 R-25 Insulation .. 4 Advanced Insulation

__________ 4 I 5 Plastic Tank.: 6Baseboard_______ 7 Off-Peak .. .... . > . 8 Add-On Heat Pump

_____ 9 Intergral Heat Pump ___________ _>3_:3::: - 10 Return Air Heat Pump ______ _

_ '3 3 ':3i,
.

:*1~~~~~~ ":it -<C -e:::.

4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~: .::,~~>.,;: ~

### Data Request C.1-Design-Option Approach (page 3) :0 Appliance Type: Water Heater _ii 3'' R Insulation... . .k Appliance Class Electric < Rated Volume: . ''.. ... .'..:..50 gallons mM a§ ^III;. .t . i 1t (s) Notes Increase in Retail Price DOE Anticipated Desig i..ions l 191 20) (21



### __ 

### ..... ~:._% ....

### , Baseline CT) 2 Heat Traps 3 R-25 Insulation

. ' 4Advanced Insulation ;'I J'" :..:$!i__ $':": 5 Plastic Tank ": 6 Baseboard 7 Off-Peak , '": _?:' . 8 Add-On Heat Pump:. 9 Intergral Heat Pump .. .i::: 10 Return Air Heat Pump' .. .. : : ,o i ......... . ii!!?... c· ~ .... :ti 4-"

O~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 4Appliance Class: Electric 

### (a) Assume aconstant production volume atthe level anticipated forthe most common model forthe yearthe new standard would come into effect (2002). (b) Material costs include material andparts. (c) Burdened laborrate includes direct laborand fringe-benefits costs. (d) Overhead includes factory overhead excluding depreciation. Includes both fixed and variable components. "' (e) Total ofcolumns numbered [1] through [3]. i (f) Show the range ofexpected variable costs expressedas maxi ue (% over column [4]) and a minimum value (% below col "4]). 

### (g) Forpurposes ofthis analysis assume a5yearreatitory life 'i: this costover 5years). (h) Includes investment for such items asproduc.i".nach Wry and pla: and/or expansion and tooling. 

### (i) Product design conversion costs are theexpens la~ ' 

### for newproduct design. These may include product redesign costs and...- 

### tctory conversion expenses. Also includes costs incurred for new produti re and catalogs, product obsolescence, and various related aketing exp: . (j) Total ofcolumns numbered [7] & [8" (k) Show the range ofexpected fixed I's exp a ... ma xii.nm value (% over column [9]) and aminimum vathe(% be,' Ii - (1) The energy data here'reported|iere (colnns [ 1uld be forthe design option applied directly to:a"aline miel and notombined with any other design options. (m) Energy Factor (EF) frItDOE te d oceduO CFR 430, Appendix E to (n) kcvy Efficiaj ( :rom DOe2ist procedure, 10 CFR430, Appendix Eto SuipartofPa inif rmt" Test Method For Measuring the Energy pConu ofWa.: . atr. 

### (o) St'ag -:ss Coefint (UA) from DOE test procedure, 10 CFR 430, ipl"pendix':i:S"iiart B fPart430- Uniform Test Method ForMeasuring the

. 

### Energy Con:s : ofWater Heaters. 

### .(. ' 

### This is the ely consumption when theelement(s) are on. ) Thisis the el.tricity consumption, such as fortransformer losses, when the element(s) a'e not on.

. Showthe.inge ofexpected EF expressed as maximum and minimum values. : '. Sourcif.r Energy Use data: testdata (T),calculations (C), orestimation (E).

Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 C-9

### Data Request C.1-Design-Option Approach (page 1) C Appliance Type: : '.. Water Heater Yearly Production Volume (a) = Appliance Class (ast Oil-Fired Rated Volume: 32 gallons CD :illl .l: ____V . . Costs Total Cost Uncertainty Range Conversion Costs (Fixed) Total CostUncertainty Range a .Illlj; 1 m ka I t .... a) Variable Variable Costs Total (millions ofdollars) Fixed Fixed Costs 'Jl .. ' :.: . . l' L t Overhead Costs (e) (+/- percentage) (f) Capital Product (i) Costs (j) (+- percentage) (k)

.. ill;;i, I^.H^ ^ 'f)(C) y(d) (S per Unit) Maximum Minimum Costs(g).(h) Design Costs (millions) Maximum Minimum DOE Anticipated Design :i' s .: i 121 3 [4] ,5] [6] (7) [81 [9] [101 [11 c_ I Baseline : , 2 Heat Traps_- 3R-8 Foam Insulation ' i _:_ 4 R-16 Insulation .. i .: .. ( 5 R-25 Insulation i '' "6Advanced Insulation ' 7 Multilple Flues ' ii:.: . 8 Improved Flue Baffle ::i _____ i. 9 Multilple Flues ':."!E_ 10Air Atomized Burner _____ .| e, I Interrupted Ignition:'i j , .... : . 12 Improved Motor Efficiency



## _ ::: ~. ,i~ilil'^ y s~f:>. fc^E~slo$. ,:,fjliillij IF'~......................................... ~

:

0 EEi 0~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ iia~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~i::..

### Data Request C.1-Design-Option Approach (page 2) 0 Appliance Type: Water Heater Appliance Class (ai iOil-Fired Rated Volume: >il 32 gallons "! ~iijE. .'Enei J:_a (when designoption applied directly to Baseline) () Uncertainty Range * :!:: -:.~.:~ '2J 'r ) UA On-Cycle Off-Cycle Total EF (n) (o) Oil (p) Elec (q) Elec (r) (+ percentage) (s) 'II. .5·· ^^ffi P' B wu/Ar W W Maximum Minimum DOE Anticipated Design' 'ons 13] [141 151 1161 1171 [181 119] c II Baseline .:: : cD 2 HeatTraps _ ' g... .

- .- 3 R-8 Foam Insulation g "' _ii . .' cD 4 R-16 Insulation "::Ej.SSi' ::: iii|^i|i. ,. . 4 _5 R-25 Insulation .. 6 Advanced Insulation 7 Mulilple Flues ' . 8 Improved Flue Baffle. "::iii:: 9 Mullilpic Flues IS' E : , :

.. 10 Air Atomized Burner _____: '' . .. :: II Interrupted Ignition :: : i 12 Improved Motor Efficiency ____._. _s _ : :! : : i :.. iiZ:;:..
4_ . - v I__^ ___ ,__ ,s__ :l f gjS; Morl :!..

0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ · ~~~~~~~~~~~~~':

### Data Request C.1-Design-Option Approach (page3) C0 Appliance Type: WaterIHeater Appliance Class (a Oil-Fired RatedVolume: 3 g.32 allons 

### ¥ii!':',i~i:i',i',i!!!'¢!i':; ii?' ... ......... $ '11 , ' : .. 

# r l l' >:':in'"~ 1 ata Comments Estimated C· ":I:/lc. * I :iI rce (t) Notes Increase in Retail Price DOE Anlicipalcd Dcsi1 ln's ii 1201 1211 [221 c aseline il ^ s....... :;.:..:. ... :.... ..... I Baseline

____________________________________ CD 2 HeatTraps . ___:___.':s _'".'.____ 3 R-8 Foam Insulation _";,::::::_:__:_ ... _i_..____ 4 R-16 Insulation .... . -4 5 R-25 Insulation 1i881-----3 1 6Advanced Insulation s: ! .. .... 7 Multilple Flues:: ... .... "::... 8 Improved Flue Baffle J :.. 9 Multilple Flues . - * i ".i 10 AirAtomized Burner ; i:. ..- :': . II Interrupted Ignition : . : 12 Imroved Motor Efficien:cy_ ___, .. il l:

: .

. .,:~.::~:~ ...............
:i:'.;:".......... :' ii.................................


## 9:''':''' IAppliance Class: Oil-Fired 

### (a) Assume aconstant production volume atthe level anticipated for the most common model forthe yearthe new standard would come into effect (2002). (b) Material costs include material andparts. (c) Burdened labor rate includes direct laborand fringe-benefits costs. (d) Overhead includes factory overhead excluding depreciation. Includes both fixed andvariable components. v 

### (e) Total ofcolumns numbered [1] through [3]. - (f) Show the range ofexpected variable costs express:d as maI" alue (% over column [4]) anda minimum value (% below co|i [4]). ti (g) Forpurposes ofthis analysis assume a5year .iulatory li t hi s cost over 5years). (h) Includes investment for such items as produ2 acm~ ery and plan.. 

### and/or expansion andtooling. (i) Product design conversion costs are theexpen 't .for new productdesign. These may include product redesign costs and.pi"''ctory conversion expenses. Also includes costs incurred fornew produ i and catalogs, product obsolescence, andvarious relat." dceting ex"' ' :: (j) Total ofcolumns numbered [7] & .. 

### 8 (k) Show the range ofexpected fixedi ts exm , maxum value (% over column [9]) and aminimum vae (% be y (1) The energy datahere reportei :here (coinns [i ltiouldbe forthe design option applied directly t|eline mGel andno combined with any other design options. (m) EnergyFactor (EF) fj. DOE tirocedul 0 CFR 430,Appendix E to Sb...part BofPa..' U:Unifom"d ForMeasuring the Energy Cm pt Heaters (n) o Efficr rom DO test procedure, 10 CFR430, Appendix Eto S'"'i of Part'" '"-'m Test Method For Measuring the Energy (o) a 

### CoeFint (UA) from DOEtest procedure, 10 CFR430, .:::i'pendi" "i..partB ofPart430- Uniform TestMethod ForMeasuring the | Energy Consu"i: oofWater Heaters. Thisis the oi ption when the burner is firing. This isthe e tricityconsumption, forfans, pumps, controls, ignition systems, etc., when I:e burner is firing.

. This is thiielectricity consumption, forfans,pumps, ignition systems, controls, :..... transf::er losses, etc., when the burner isnot firing. X^IllSbllw' 

### the range ofexpected EFexpressed as maximum andminimum values. i: ouiiource for Energy Use data: test data (T),calculations (C), orestimation (E).
Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 C-13

### Data Request C.2-Efficiency-Level Approach (page 1) 0 Appliance Type: .:: ilis||:::i: y.. Water Heater Yearly Production Volume (a)= ; Appliance Class (|*|||l . - Gas-Fired RatedVolume: 'KI1Y 1 _ ;!i ;iiii : O .40 gallons iii| s1s_:ii Variable Costs I , Cost Uncertainty Range Conversion Costs (Fixed) Total CostUncertainty Range

. ! : .Hi

zii __i_!: Costs per Unit (a) i " Variable Costs Total (millions ofdollars) Fixed Fixed Costs :: : : : ieri~al La~bor 0 . '.'"| i fl :) (+/- percentage) (g) Capital Product () Costs (k) (+/-percentage) (I) :i>!:'.:.; ~(d) .;ll':. :'er Unit) Maximum Minimum Costs(h),(i) Design Costs (millions) Maximum Minimum Energy Factor (b) [iT ::":' [21 |i ' [4] [51 [6] (7) [81 (91 [o10 [11 .57 _ _:. i 

### .58

____ _ _ _ ss: [21_ sssiiiii_ :!.1___10
.64 . ~ ,:::i::i. .. ... .60 ______ _________ (0 co .62 , _ _ _ - .64
__________ ___S .. > ..... '-y .67 -_.:_._ _ : _:_ _:j, .70 f__
_ _ ::: :: .75

__________ _____. _s__ .80'j /i s -iiili - .. . s .90 -_ . . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 

## ,.6o S ~ ~



## s S ........ :drii



## fs!] SSS

'j;i~:



### .iiiiii.iiiiii:: ~ .........

0or._ _. P~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~::i::v..:::::¥~.''~~:$.:!~5!:s~~s :i:'.:~~~...Data Request C.2-Efficiency-Level Approach (page 2) O ApplianceType:- :: .. :....... Water Heater Appliance Class (an '' Gas-Fired 

### H

" " ~::' *·"'"'· "..il. ......... asF -... Rated Volume: ii'i gallons. . _ :(e . OfCylellll: Energy Data D RlUi (tlr) UA iiptn-Cycle |I;|. .-. :'1 Off-Cycle Energy Data Comments Esiimated *§d$~ ^Ili? 11 ~ ~(n) GasBr Gas b (q) Elec (r) Source (s) Notes () Increasein B. :i.

"/u/hr W Retail Price .56 :::: : . Energy Factor(b) [._'.. [13] [_!' [16] [171 [_81_[_191 [201

: .58.._ . __ ( .62 =:'_*_s____::::E:! ... :::. .64 ., .l.:.: ::: .70 __ _ _ _ _ I '' I' .75 -: : :s _ I

. 705 .. s....':i:.~ _ ~.:......... .. .. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.85* ::.:: q::.':ss;::. ]]iis~,

n0 0 : ..:'.: ..:::::,.. ;~.. .:q.: . :, 

### ""~:"~~~~~~~~~··:::..:.:,L!-!,?;"iiiiiiii !i ..... ~:*.;:ili?:...':~ ....... ? .~·r~:'s:.~i;?.._,;5,...



# ................ ~~~~~~···j

### Data Request C2: Efficiency-Level Approach Footnotes This approach consists ofletting the manufacturers supply cost and corresponding efficiency datausing any design options or design option combinations they choose. 

### Appliance Class: Gas-Fired (a) Assume a constant production volume atthe level anticipated for the m..: common model forthe year the new standard would come inti*:feci2002). (b) Energy Factor (EF) from DOE test procedure, 10 R 4304 " xE to Subpart B ofPart 430- Uniform Test Method Fo:r"asurin'gie"n Consumption ofWater Heaters. (c) Material costs include material and parts. X . (d) Burdened labor rate includes direct labor and..fge-e fits costs. (e) Overhead includes factory overhead excluding.ration. Includes boii fied and variable components. (f) Total ofcolumns numbered [1] through [3]. 

## .. (g) Show the range ofexpected variable costs expressed :" i "' i.m value (% over column [4]) and a minimum value (% bel olumn [4] (h) Forpurposes ofthis analysis assume. uatory lir , amortize this cost over 5 years). .. ' (i) Includes investment for such ites asproQic"'ti:ry and plant upgrade and/or expansion and tooling.i . I . (j) Product design conversiqo-i-ots are thicexpensie costs for new product design. These may include pro-it desig osts andj epensable factory conversion expenses. Also includ^osts inc.. d for niproduct literature and catalogs, product obsoles d vario. . i:ke ting expenses. (k) T..toE fcolu .. "..red [7] (I) i h rangef ed fixed costs expressed as maximum value (% over "''[) ~and a' "'.:.alue (% below column [9]). (mn) Recov:.ienc y 

### r DOE testprocedure, I0 CFR430, Appendix E to Su'b'"": i430:: - :30 - 'i: Test Method For Measuring the Energy Coiisurn'pt~ea idWater Heaters. (n) E Standby Heat Siiefficient (UA) from DOE test procedure, 10 CFR 430, Appendix E t p B ofPart 430- Uniform Test Method For Measuring the i Energy Consuption ofWater Heaters. :i':) This is the asconsumption when the burner is firing. I..... This is thetectricity consumption, for fans, pumps, ignition systems, controls,
, etc., w.i the burner is firing. :':Jii Tii: 

### the gas consumption, forthe pilot, when the burner is not firing. '" T: i isi the electricity consumption, forfans, pumps, ignition systems, controls, transformer losses, etc., when the burner is not firing. (s) Source for Energy Use data: test data (T), calculations (C), or estimation (E). (t) List design options used to achieve this efficiency. Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11,1997 C-161. Baseline 2. Heat Traps 3. R-16 Insulation 4. R-25 Insulation 5. Advanced Insulation 6. ED 7. Flue Damper (electromechanical) 8. Flue Damper (bouyancy operated) 9. Improved Flue Baffle 10. Multiple Flues 11. Improved Combustion Chamber 12. Submerged Combustion Chamb..u 13. Two Phase Thermosiphon 14. Side Arm Heater .. 15. Direct Vent, 16. Power Vent 17. Power Vent w/ Flue Gas Dilu 18. Plastic Tank 19. Condensing 20. Pulse Condensing 21. TPV Generator 22. Submerged CoWbstion 23. Directly Firedr 

### -aSX

Dratt whea..WTM^ d J e ^ ^ ........... ...

Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 C-17

### Data Request 

### C.^ -fficiency-Level Approach (page I) 0 Appliance Type: ,: | WaterHeater Yearly Production Volume (a) =__ Appliance Class (ati'l Electric Rated Volume: .ii' ii. SP5 gallons . __: '_ ! ': 11:1 Variable Costs '::i:l ... iiii::. CostUncertainty Range Conversion Costs (Fixed) Total Cost Uncertainty Range '5IS JJIII Costs per Unit(a) mi SVariable Costs Total (millions ofdollars) Fixed Fixed Costs E':!:

' "' Ia Lqh

bor per :.i:: (+/- rcenuagc) (g) Capital Prodlicl (j) Costs (k) - (+/- prcntage) (I) ( :..' (d) .:iiili '"er Unit) Maximum Minimum Costs(h).(i) Design Costs (millions) Maximum Minimum Energy Factor(b) ][]' | :,, [21] 4,1 ,s 1[5] [6] (7) 1[8 [91 [10] [I1]

- c .88 _' 3 .89 . ''S-' ..... i : .... .90 _ _,i; i :2. .......... 

### .92 ___92___ ~ _ _ _ _ _ (0 .94a ' .. 1.32

- ... - :-::'

":;:;:i:: ;:i¥ "')??)L . 2.20 ~?;.

2. . CO.11 ~i~~i ~ ........ i:!::, .. .!......,

OD~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.:~

### Data Request C.2-Efficiency-Level Approach (page 2) a Appliance Type: Water Heater
;t · ::::: ) X Appliance Class (ant |r|u.|| :... Electric Rated Volumen: 50 gallons

__________________________________________________________ M Energy Da:

. :ii:E (Tnr) UA i-Cycle : Energy Data Comments Estimated 3 

## ISii::I::(msi) (n) "t) :(: Source (q) Notes (r) Increase in " : ::::::: ,.:.:-.: Retail Price Energy Factor (b) ":'i. [13J :' . '15] [161] 171 [181 C- .88 "' : .89:

__ _ _

. 8 ....... :::: :iiiiiiiii ii:ii....____________________________ 

### 2.0 3s s S...... ..... 1=== != ::>: -4 .94
_ _ _ _ 1.32 ______ i 11 2.20

_____________ ______ : | '. K '''.:::::. i: 2.20 ::: . ::: : .. . 2.64
o. .9 ... :::':>,:,,: ' ,......' >S. '-$i!~::::.::.:i~? i[ '~
............ .

_~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.. 

### %_:;; ;i i~ iii~!iif...':.......Appliance Class: Electric (a) Assume aconstant production volume atthe level anticipated for the most common model for the year the new standard would come into effect (2002). (b) Energy Factor (EF) from DOE testprocedure, 10 CFR 430, Appendix E to Subpart B ofPart430- Uniform TestMethod For Measuring the Energy Consumption ofWater Heaters. (c) Material costs include material and parts. ... (d) Burdened labor rate includes direct laborand fringe-benefits ts... (e) Overhead includes factory overhead excluding depreciatio..s both fixed 

### and variable components. .i . (f) Total ofcolumns numbered [1] through 

### [31.
. (g) Show the range ofexpected variable costs ex:essed as. : irmum over column [4]) and aminimum value (% below? mn .[1) (h) For purposes ofthis analysis assume a 5 yea 'ji'. ry life (i.e., amorti"is cost over5 years). (i) Includes investment for such items as produc''t . ... i3' and plant upgrade and/or expansion and tooling. (j) Product design conversion costs are the,.ex sable c st " . product design. These may include product redesig '..pensableiry conversion expenses. Also includes costs iliterature andcatalogs, product obsolescence, and various relate.fart igpnses. (k) Total ofcolumns numbered 

### 71 & [8].. (1) Show the range ofexpe..c

### tiixed coS expresse as maximum value (% over column [9]) and amiIn'value. ( below cilumn [9]). (m) Recovery Efficiency'. from D ..- 'test prcdure, 10 CFR 430, Appendix E to Subpart B ofPa U'430-U niforrbm ht obd For Measuring the Energy Coni 

### sum~pptio ti 

### o"W:: Heater..' (n) WaW HeatfisC i c i e n t (hAS from DOE test procedure, 10CFR 430, .... "'.iE to Su'bt" .. Part 430- Uniform Test Method For Measuring the 

### o)Ene............. ump.tioW ..

### EH.eaters. (o) This'"s'" "tiicity c'"i ption when the element(s) are on. 

### (p I,:s 

### is'fh""ty consumption, such asfor transformer losses, when the ,..element(s) a''' t" :. (q:I Source forE' lse data: test data (T), calculations (C), orestimation (E). 

### (Ofl List design o0ions used to achieve this efficiency. 1. ,y Baseline -::2.. : Heat Traps ii.iii....... -.. ' R-25 Insulation $.i4 '

. Advanced Insulation 5. Plastic Tank 6. Baseboard 7. Off-Peak 8. Add-On Heat Pump Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 C-20

### 9. Intergral Heat Pump 10. Return Air HeatPump

&,? i:. .. indefin·::. ' '4 ''::'....:iii:.~?"

:.4... ..

1⁄2.' 1

Draft wheater.wpd June 11, 1997 c21

### Data Requ 

### iency-Level Approach (page ) 0 Appliance Typ Water Heater Yearly Production Volume (a) = Appliance Cla. .. wpted):. Oil-Fired Rated Volume: 2 gallons SS ''il !|_!__- Variable Costs i Cio' I I Cost Uncertainty Range Conversion Costs (Fixed) Total Cost Uncertainty Range

_ .||B _ _ Costs per Unit (a) B aiilable Variable Costs Total (millions ofdollars) Fixed Fixed Costs

. Bial. Labor .:rt i Costs (f (+/- percentage) (g) Capital Product (j) Costs (k) (+/- percentage) (I)

( i:,) (d) : #) Iiol:l. (Sper Unit) Maximum Minimum Costs(h),(i) Design Costs (millions) Maximum Minimum Energy Factor (b) f1l 1 

### f$ 4Sig ili .[5] [6] (7) [81 [9] [10l [1I]


### -. s 5 ;;;i!!?,iii8____ _ ___ ^l" ii .:... ,.i-,.: .i: : I i,, B ..... g II_CCD .56

* .58 6= 3-____ .60 _____ .... ii::.. .62__ .:_ . 64 .646__________ ____________________||||s_ __,,::~ .66 :__ _ ''__.. . . .. .68_
___ _____
.* : 70.



### 9 r ,y::J. 

### 'w5 

### ^..

### Data Request C.2--Efficiency-Level Approach (page 2) 0 Appliance Type: Water Heater

> Appliance Class (II:::: . Oil.Flred Rated Volume: -::::^:. .... . . : 32 gallons £¢:DJ~' fII ly _:_ [ Energy Data':^i .i: .

. l".,iii.E (ir) UA 

### I On- .iO Off-Cycle Energy Data Commcnts

. Estimated tdp' :
.i:,fii.() (n) (, i: Elec (q) Source (r) Notes (s) Increase in .66 - w Retail Pri..ce EnergyFactor(b) [ [131 . i[15) (16.1 1171 118) [191 CD .56

_______ .58 .60
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ __.. .64 :_______ ___.______________

. ~ ~ZZ ~~ f~ l.66l - ..... .68
. .70Appliance Class: Oil-Fired (a) Assume a constant production volume at the level anticipated for the most common model for the year the new standard wouldcome into effect (2002). (b) EnergyFactor (EF) from DOE testprocedure, 10 CFR 430, Appendix Eto Subpart B ofPart430- Uniform Test Method ForMeasuring the Energy Consumption ofWaterHeaters. (c) Material costs include material and parts. (d) Burdened labor rate includes direct labor and fringe-benefits costs. . (e) Overhead includes factory overhead excluding depreciation._i'w d b"oth fixed and variable components. (f) Total ofcolumns numbered [1] through [3]. ..... (g) Show the range ofexpected variable costs ex'?ssed as r.lmum "io ver .o ; column [4]) and aminimum value (% below'."umn [1 

### 4 (h) Forpurposes ofthis analysis assume a 5 year.!i oy life (i.e., amorti ' cost over 5 years). (i) Includes investment for such items as producutl ic-i and plant upgrade and/or expansion and tooling. " -. (j) Product design conversion costs are the erable cosXi proi oduct design. These may include product redesign gotn'* pensabli'.. conversion expenses. Also includes costs incui:i.u. uct litejure and catalogs, product obsolescence, and varioi related 2'":'iexnses. (k) Total ofcolumns numbered [1:& [8]. .- (1) Show the range ofexpecte ixed cosiiexpresse as maximum value (% over column [9]) and a miniilalue.( below climn [9]). (m) Recovery Efficiency (||fromDOiEest proqeure, 10 CFR430, Appendix Eto 

### Subpart B ofPartF.i3U(niform "i ' For Measuring theEnergy .- :suXmption .of r.. "Heaters (n) y Heat C ficient (lAf'om DOE test procedure, 10CFR430, ': I: "'-E to .S."l.-: 

### fPart430- Uniform Test Method For Measuring the E-......-.. mptio..-...

### W- :Heaters. (o) This

### ilsi: . ::sum p i hen the burner is firing. (p) T.iel ty conis ption, for fans, pumps, ignition systems, controls, t..c., when thEt i.e

### is firing. (q)i This is the ele"ic.. t:consumption, for fans, pumps, ignition systems, controls, transformer lossesI etc., when the burner is not firing. .- ?"ll Source for Energy Use data: test data (T), calculations (C), or estimation (E). List designoptions used to achieve this efficiency. ,i. Baseline HeatTraps 3:i. R-8 FoamInsulation 4. R-16 Insulation 5. R-25 Insulation 6. Advanced Insulation Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 C-24

### f 7. Multiple Flues 8. Improved Flue Baffle 9. Multiple Flues 10. Air Atomized Burner 11. Interrupted Ignition 12. Improved MotorEfficiency C.3 Uncertainty and Variability in Manufacturer Costs. .1 The analysis will explicitly consider uncertainty (e.g., in.plete ' about future costs) and variability (e.g., differences among :ufacturer" cOn :? describes a proposed approach forcollecting andusinthe datal apb used for anydata collected (each component ofcost forth. otal increm,. . Part ofthe discussion with stakeholders should inc l ins about the lev'etil 

### at which uncertainty should be addressed. How detailedshouldthedatabeon uncertainty?
- 

### All ofthe data have some uncertainty associated...One approacl ie to request explicit estimates ofuncertainty associated nber pro However, where possible, the burden ofmaking those estue' d ced,by tead estimating only theuncertainty associated with more a"egate r 

### .i iple,rather than estimating theuncertainty foreach o the cost fimsin ign option survey, only the uncertainty in total variable costa..total fix::cost foriac design option is needed to carry an analysis ofthe cost un.:'"inty thi 'igh thema tufacturer impact analysis and engineering analysis. Inthe :ofthe .iency, " ertainty could be characterized for the energy factor, recov f ency, ac. t loss coefficient. Variability in hot water uS".among h " willb 'be ted separately to deal with actual energy consw asI...:: ist 'e...':.,. test Ipro re. How shoua "i"".fnty b.hr'i e...ed? 

### In order to e diff among manufacturers, each manufacturer will be asked to .'a ti stimatofcosts, including their estimate ofthe uncertainty in their.Sosts. Manufa"'c:"i: be asked toestimate the uncertainty in theircosts by pi lding aminimu 

### r ikely, and maximum value for the cost. These values will ?Minterpreted as atrigilar distribution, unless the manufacturer indicates that a .'Different distribution should beused. ftCstructing.iistry costs from individualmanufacturercosts. 

### o individual manufacturers will be treated as confidential, arange of 't "'t"'industry will be constructed, based upon the information fromthe individual manufacturers. The range ofcosts to the industry willbe expressed as confidence intervals, that is arange ofvalues with a specified probability. Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 C-25Four steps are proposed forcombining information from individual manufacturers to construct the range ofcosts for the industry. First, a sample will be selected to characterize the range provided by each manufacturer. Second, these samples may be weighted. (See discussion below about how todetermine whatweights to use, if any.) Third, the samples from each manufacturer are combined to obtain the range ofcosts for the industry. Fourth, in order toprotect confidentiality, the results are summarized as "trend results," revealing only the median ("middle") and the low and high values corresponding to specific confidence intervals. Weighting the individualmanufacturercoststo obtainthe industry.' Forthe current mix ofproducts, the industry resultcan b,:.ltup r " '" ividual manufacturer's costs by simply averaging the estimate sisuming wa!:. : ), or alternatively, byweighting each manufacturer's costis their ma:it. shar 

### t example, we present boththe unweighted estimate, 

### n estimite ofindus'" s 

### upon market shares. ' Without advance knowledge offuture market shares,,we ... i.s use current market shares to weight each manufacturer's costs, in orderii build 'i :.range ofindustry costs. Forthe future mix ofproducts, the marketL..es may chis(i( , with the possibility that those manufacturers with the may los"i ket share). A sensitivity analysis can be conducted on it' "eig':''' ' upon psible shifts in market shares. ,. Example. ... : .. Suppose three manufacturers pri::'e estia es ofan i:iremental cost (either for a design option or for an efficiency levd Table '1b:ows ea nanufacturer's estimate ofthe

.......... ,. .............. > - .. :. .':,. ....... /\'aa COSTS

..- :.;::..

5 10 15 20 25 30 '"::'"Draf:t :eaterl::pd June 11, 1997 C-26· Draft w.eate:.wpd June 11, 1997 C-26 "::::ii~ i -:::':'" . .. . 101/0 53 Drftwnatrlwd un 1119 7 C-2minimum, likeliest, and maximum cost. Figure 1shows the triangular distributions drawn from minimum, likeliest, and maximum costs for three manufacturers, corresponding to Table 1.Table 1. Hypothetical incremental cost estimates from three manufacturers. Manufacturer Minimum Likeliest Maximum B $10 $15 $20:4' A $5 $20 C $10 ;$?*:' $- Manufacturer B estimates the cost tobe between $1(:d $20, .kiest $1;-.... .,i Manufacturer A estimates the costto be between $5 ¢ $25 i eliest $20. Mg ter C estimates the cost between $10 and $30, likeliest $ T| hmple average of 'ii: estimates of"likeliest" cost is $18 = ($15+20+20)/3... t.I ate fails to account for the uncertainty.

. ' Figure 1and Table 1show that manufacturer AiH 'ider rang e minimum to the likely value ($15=$20-$5) than from the.'l""" Jo the max m ($5=$25-$20). Considering the uncertainties as triangulafdistrib l : t ki.. account ofthe range 

### and shape ofthe uncertainties gives aiean valuifor ::n"i'at-:er A of$16.67. ~;: : .. iiis *'. ii::: : ... . Calculations ofindustry costs wl' se multilLe values W.thin the range provided by manufacturers. Sampling techal-es (Moi. Carlo orl.atin Hypercube') willbe used to select samples within the rano provide' sufffint number ofsamples will be analyzed i.: represent thei range w'"vi ": 2 (page C-29) shows theunweighted avera g. l 'ilated us -- "'nals (Lat" :: p rcube), with amean industry value of The weighteid I.are obtaitniiiiasuming market shares of60% for manufacturer A, 30% for n"ai"B:and lOi 'r manufacturer C. Since Manufacturer A, with the largest arket shar ei'ated lower costs than the other manufacturers, the weighted costs are los:itha: theunweighted costs. Figure 3 (page C-30) shows the .ighted costs, with aIen value of$16.0. iii en more information is provided by a confidence interval. The confidence interval is :.3i't probability ta: the cost will occur within some range from low to high value around ' ::e .idiva: Table 2shows the range ofvalues for each ofthe confidence intervals. ig r':

' " ':s s10%, 25%, 50%, and 90% confidence intervals forthe unweighted and Monte Carlo involves random sampling. Latin Hypercube is intended to provide higher assurance than Monte Carlo thatthe full range is sampled. Latin Hypercube first divides the range into equal-sized segments, then conducts random sampling within each segment. Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 C-27weighted averages. Table 2. Confident - intervalsand range ofcostsfor the industry 

### Confidence Interval Range ofCosts Range of Costs (around median) (unweighted) (weighted) Median $17.3 $16.1 2 10% $17.0-17.7 $1 :' 25% $16.6-18.0 

### . 50% $15.9-18.7 $ . : 90% $13.5-20.6 i 

### :'. $12.8-18.

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Draft vineateri.wpd June 11, 1997 C-28,Forecast: UNWEIGHTED AVERAGE Cell: E9 Summary: Display Range isfrom 10.0 to 30.0 Entire Range isfrom 11.9 to 22.9 After 500Trials, the Std. Error ofthe Mean is0.1 Statistics: Value Trials 500 Mean 172 Median 17 .. 3 . Mode Standard Deviation ·. : Variance '44J Skewness -0M Kurtosis B51 Coeff. ofVariability 0 12 Range Minimum 11 9 Range Maximum 9 Range Width Mean Std. Error ':: Forecast: UNWEIGHTE.B: ........ s 500 Trials Freque:' Chart 0i:O Outliers 046 .. iS:"23

...- B1725

oz~ ~ ... * ... ~ _11.5 '- 0

..?~:ii~ii:? .. . (e.D ~

iSO t0~25.0 30.0

Draft wheaterl.wpd June 11, 1997 C-29Forecast: WEIGHTED AVERAGE Ce: Cell: H11 Summary: Display Range isfrom 10.0 to 30.0 Entire Range Isfrom 10.8 to 20.2 After 500 Trials, the Std. Error ofthe Mean Is0.1 Statistics: Trials 500 Mean u, 16.0 Median 16. ... Mode .. Standard Deviation :!i Variance 

## 34 *..' . Skewness Kurtosis Coeff. of Variability 01 Range Minimum Range Maximum Range Width Mean Std. Error

I 500 Trials Freque hart 0 Outliers j Outliers 054



### .041 . . . . : .,.

Draft wheater.wpd June 11, 1997 C-30 

### o, .ol....... .: .13.

### Appendix D Financial InputsforWater Heaters Assumption Default Suggested Uncertainty Range 

### Max. Tax Rate 40% Interest Rate 12% Working Capital 18% % Sales Selling, General & 16% Administrative, % Sales Depreciation 3.25% ' 

### Variable Overhead (%) 60% Regulatory Life (years) Research & Development 1% 

# .apital.

# ::: Inm ish flow . 

### tihe GRIM odel requires several major assumptions, each obe mo ?bease provide your suggestions for thesevalues.

D : ...

s :s..

." ail. : :

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