Aquaculture Outlook
Economic Research Service                                            LDP-AQS-1
U.S. Department of Agriculture                                 March 15, 1995 
            Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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Higher Catfish Production in 1995
 
Based on January 1 grower inventories, catfish production is expected to
expand 5-7 percent in 1995.  In 1994, catfish production fell 4 percent to
439.3 million pounds, the first decline since 1975, as growers cut back
stocking and feeding levels due to low farm prices in 1993.
 
The January 1 grower-held inventories for food-size catfish, which will be
marketed in first-half 1995, were estimated at 202 million fish, up 7 percent
from last year.  The increased volume is expected to lower farm and wholesale
prices slightly from a year earlier.
 
Production and prices during the second half of 1995 will depend on how fast
the stockers and fingerlings held by growers on January 1 will be brought to
market size.  With farm prices still averaging around 77-78 cents a pound,
and feed costs lower, growers have an incentive to feed fish at maximum
rates.  While catfish competes chiefly with other fish species, large red
meat and poultry supplies are likely to depress seafood prices in general. 
But continued economic growth should boost consumer purchasing power,
supporting prices.
 
Farm Prices Lower in 1995
 
First quarter 1995 prices are likely to average 1-2 cents above a year
earlier as supplies will still be relatively tight due to increased buying
for the Lenten season.  However, as supplies increase prices are expected to
fall slightly in the second quarter and remain below 1994 for the remainder
of 1995.
 
Expectations of a second consecutive year of profitability are likely to
encourage growers to expand their operations by constructing more ponds or
more heavily stocking ponds already in production.  Both actions would lead
to higher production, but most of the impact would not come until 1996. 
Higher grower returns last year also left many growers in better shape to
finance an expansion.
 
Catfish Acreage Increasing
 
The January U.S. catfish grower's survey indicated 155,415 acres of ponds
were in production, up 1 percent from a year earlier and reversing 2 years of
declines.  Almost all the increase was in Mississippi.  However, acreage is
still down considerably from the peak of 166,160 acres in July 1991.  The
survey also indicated that nearly 7,400 acres of ponds are either being
rebuilt or under construction.
 
The long-term trend shows concentration into fewer, but larger farms. 
However, the high farm prices for catfish in 1994 attracted a number of new
entries to the industry.  The average farm size in Mississippi fell by almost
20 acres last year, to 323 acres.
 
After falling for the last 2 years, broodfish inventories were up 10 percent,
according to growers.  In Mississippi, broodfish inventories rose 39 percent. 
Most of the price impact from the larger supplies will likely occur in 1996,
when the fish hatched this year reach market size.
 
Farmer Sales Higher in 1995
 
Farmer sales to processing plants in 1995 are forecast between 460 and 470
million pounds, up 5-7 percent from 1994.  Much of the increase may occur in
the second half as available supplies increase.  Processing in January 1995
was up 6 percent from the previous year, but is expected to slow in the
second quarter as the Lenten period ends.
 
After a record farm price of 78.4 cents a pound in 1994, prices in 1995 are
forecast to moderate.  With supplies still relatively tight, first-quarter
prices are expected to average above the previous year.  However, later in
the year food-size catfish supplies should expand putting some downward
pressure on prices.
 
Higher sales volume to processors is expected to offset a reduction in the
average price received by farmers.  Farm prices are expected to average
between 72 and 76 cents a pound in 1995, yielding gross farm revenues ranging
from $330 to $360 million, about the same as in 1994.
 
Processors' Sales Up in 1995
 
Rising farm-level prices pushed prices for processed products up 9 percent in
1994 to a record $2.39 a pound and processors' revenues to a record $516
million.  Processor sales in 1995 are expected to again be strong as sales
expand and prices decline only mildly.
 
Over the second half of 1994, processors gradually built up inventories of
frozen product.  Ending stocks for 1994 were 10.6 million pounds, up 21
percent from the previous year.  Large freezer stocks should limit farm price
advances in the first quarter despite relatively tight farm supplies.
 
Sales of Value Added Products to Increase
 
The mix of sales products has been changing over time.  Increased dependence
on sales to institutions and restaurants has led to the development of more
value-added products.  Sales of whole and filleted product fell in 1994,
while sales of "other" products (catfish nuggets, strips, etc.) increased
slightly.
 
Prices for "other" catfish products recorded only small gains in 1994, while
whole and fillet prices had double-digit increases.  The "other" catfish
products likely are competing with a range of value-added meat and poultry
products.  This makes their prices more vulnerable to fluctuations in red
meat and poultry prices.
 
Tilapia Imports Increase
 
The tilapia market is apparently continuing the rapid expansion of the last 2
years.  Imports in 1994 totaled 32.1 million pounds, approximately the same
as imports of fresh Pacific salmon.  The large increase occurred without
large declines in prices.
 
The U.S. Tilapia Growers Association estimated U.S. production at 15 million
pounds in 1994, with continued growth expected for 1995.  Future growth in
U.S. tilapia production likely will depend on the ability of growers to
compete with imported tilapia in the processed fish market.  Previously, many
growers focused their production on the live fish market, since import
requirements and high costs restricted live fish importation.  While the live
fish market continues to expand, much of the anticipated growth in tilapia
sales will be for processed products.
 
Most U.S. production will come from tank systems using recirculated water,
due to tilapia's need for warm water.  A number of these systems are
currently in production, but their future use will depend on improving the
efficiency of the water filtration processes and reducing water heating
costs.
 
All categories of tilapia imports rose in 1994, but about half of the
increase was in the frozen fillet market, which rose 280 percent.  In 1992
and 1993, imports of frozen tilapia fillets were dominated by product from
Thailand and Indonesia.  However, in 1994, Taiwan became the major supplier
accounting for 66 percent of the total.  The average price of frozen fillets
from Taiwan was $0.75 a pound, compared with $1.75 a pound from Thailand and
Indonesia.
 
Tilapia imports are forecast to continue to grow in 1995 and into 1996. 
While domestic tilapia production is expected to expand, growers will
continue to concentrate chiefly on the live fish market, with only a handful
of the largest producers marketing processed products.
 
Salmon Production Steady in 1994, Imports Higher
 
Domestic salmon production was around 26 million pounds in 1994, about even
with the previous year.  An increase reported by the Washington Salmon
Growers Association offset a decline in Maine's production, as reported by
the Maine Department of Marine Resources.  Maine's production of Atlantic
salmon fell as the smolt class for 1994 was smaller and growers were hit with
both disease and weather problems last winter.  Grower inventories in both
States indicate that production will be higher in 1995.
 
In 1994, U.S. imports of Atlantic salmon were up 9 percent to 68 million
pounds.  Canada and Chile remained the chief suppliers.  World production of
farmed salmon in 1994 is estimated at 500,000 metric tons, about equal to the
wild harvest in Alaska.  Seafood Leader, an industry magazine, reported that
Norway is the largest producer with a 1994 harvest of 210,000 tons.
 
Even with higher domestic production and imports, fresh Atlantic salmon
prices remained steady in 1994.  Normally, Atlantic salmon prices drop in the
third and fourth quarter due to the influx of large quantities of wild
salmon.  Undoubtedly, the strength of the U.S. economy during 1994,
especially in the second half of the year, played a large part in the price
strength.  A growing economy bolsters the restaurant trade, a prime outlet
for salmon products.  Although innovations in salmon farming continue to
reduce production costs, retail prices for salmon fillets and steaks are
still normally above all but the most expensive cuts of red meat.
 
While the U.S. supply of farm-raised salmon continues to expand, the wild
catch is still the largest component of the domestic salmon supply.  Wild
harvests of salmon, almost exclusively from Alaska, were at or near record
levels in 1993 and 1994.  Even though a large percentage of the salmon
harvest is exported or canned, sales of wild salmon products continue to
affect prices of farm-raised products.
 
Imports of farmed Atlantic salmon are forecast to expand again in 1995 due to
projections for small increases in domestic farmed production and decreases
in the wild harvest from Alaska.  The exchange rate with Canada continues to
be depressed, making Canadian farmed salmon relatively cheaper.  Also,
Japan's economy is strengthening and Japan is expected to be a larger buyer
of wild salmon from Alaska.
 
Shrimp Imports and Prices Higher in 1994
 
Shrimp are by far the most valuable seafood import, worth $2.7 billion in
1994.  Shrimp imports are approaching 50 percent of all edible seafood
imports.  In 1995, shrimp imports should again increase in quantity as long
as the domestic economy remains strong.  Prices are expected to decline from
their relatively high 1994 levels as farmed production expands, especially in
Southeast Asia.
 
Over the last two years, U.S. shrimp imports from China have declined
substantially, due to wide scale disease problems that have greatly lowered
their farm-raised shrimp production.  World shrimp prices have risen,
benefitting all nations that farm shrimp or harvest them wild.  The drop in
U.S. imports from China have been offset by increases from Mexico, Thailand,
India, and Bangladesh.
 
Thailand's shrimp exports to the United States rose 20 percent in quantity
and 40 percent in value to just under $1 billion in 1994.  Continued growth
in Thailand's farm-raised shrimp industry has made it the world's largest
producer.  With the addition of shrimp to its other seafood products,
Thailand is now the world's largest seafood exporter.
 
Mexico has also benefited, with 1994 exports to the United States growing 12
percent in quantity.  India and Bangladesh both have farm-raised shrimp
industries, but the majority of production currently comes from their wild
harvests.  This situation is rapidly changing in India, where a large
percentage of its long coastline is well suited for shrimp culture.
 
Developing New Aquaculture Industries
 
Due to the near collapse in the stocks of cod and halibut and a number of
other species the U.S. and Canadian governments have imposed severe
harvesting cutbacks in the Georges Bank fishing area of the northern
Atlantic.  As a result, the United States and Canada have placed increased
priority on cultivating these species.  Potential benefits include a source
of jobs for displaced fishermen and replenishment of the wild stocks.  The
effort is not without precedent, as a large portion of the salmon harvest in
Alaska is based on the release of hatchery reared smolts.  Norway, probably
the leader in this area, has been investigating halibut production for
several years and is beginning to develop commercial farm-raised halibut and
cod industries.
 
Crawfish Imports Double
 
The Louisiana crawfish industry continues to be pressured by rising imports
of crawfish meat from China.  China first began exporting crawfish meat to
the United States in 1991.  By 1994, shipments had risen to 1.6 million
pounds, valued at $3.8 million.  As shipments increased, the average price
fell.  In 1994, import prices for Chinese crawfish meat were only $2.39 a
pound, well below reported production costs for Louisiana packers.  While
imports do not directly compete with the live market, they depress the
average price paid for all crawfish, including frozen products.
 
Oyster Sales Strong
 
U.S. growers are benefiting from steady growth in oyster consumption in Asia
and the reputed high quality of U.S. oysters.  Exports of oysters reached
$6.9 million in 1994, up over 180 percent from 1991.  The majority of the
growth has come from higher exports to Japan and Taiwan, but Canada is also a
steadily expanding market.  As in the ornamental fish market, the decline in
the dollar against many Asian currencies is expected to further boost exports
in 1995.
 
Due to the long growth period for oysters, producers have not been able to
increase production to meet the export expansion of the last 2 years.  While
growers are optimistic about higher export demand in 1995, they are cautious
about expanding production until they are certain these markets will continue
in the long term.
 
Ornamental Fish Imports and Exports Expand
 
Although most of the interest in aquaculture has been devoted to food
production, the markets for ornamental fish, domestic and export, continue to
expand.  U.S. ornamental fish growers exported $18.9 million of fish in 1994,
up 8 percent from 1993 and the fourth consecutive year that exports have
risen.
 
The top five markets for U.S. ornamental fish are Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong,
Canada and Mexico.  The weakness in the Canadian dollar and the economic
uncertainties in Mexico are expected to lower exports to those markets in
1995.  The recent decline in the value of the U.S. dollar to the yen is
expected to aid sales of U.S. products to Japan and other Asian nations.
 
The import market for ornamental fish is also increasing rapidly, totaling
$46.8 million in 1994.  Even though the United States imports ornamental fish
from over 60 countries, the top ten countries, mainly in Asia and South
America, account for 88 percent of the market.
 
Quantity and value of U.S. exports of selected seafood products
 
        Commodity              1991       1992       1993       1994
 
         Exports                                $1,000
 
Ornamental fish              12,746     16,455     17,366     18,867
Trout, live                   1,383        992        976      1,636
Trout, fresh & frozen         2,653      2,873      3,233      3,475
Atlantic salmon, fresh        1,647      4,920     11,203      3,649
Pacific salmon, fresh 1/     29,502     46,871     36,765     40,305
Atlantic salmon, frozen         290        956      1,049      1,193
Pacific salmon, frozen 1/   359,818    594,794    485,488    476,910
Canned & pre. salmon 2/     135,146    171,939    162,261    163,687
Shrimp, frozen               64,134     66,382     61,806     55,258
Shrimp, fresh & pre. 3/      44,611     49,653     48,500     52,998
Oysters 4/                    2,397      2,781      3,514      6,892
Mussels 5/                    1,864      2,657      2,802      2,115
Clams 6/                      7,037      6,699      6,284      5,779
 
                                                1,000 lb.
 
Ornamental fish                   0          0          0          0
Trout, live                       0          0          0          0
Trout, fresh & frozen         1,626      1,766      1,846      1,958
Atlantic salmon, fresh          473      1,396      4,018      1,184
Pacific salmon, fresh 1/     14,879     20,655     24,275     22,483
Atlantic salmon, frozen         123        406        373        384
Pacific salmon, frozen 1/   196,668    240,072    257,751    260,469
Canned & pre. salmon 2/      67,188     85,788     85,226     90,393
Shrimp, frozen               14,980     18,082     16,524     13,622
Shrimp, fresh & pre. 3/      12,864     14,692     14,315     15,778
Oysters 4/                      929      1,105      1,454      2,634
Mussels 5/                    1,665      2,317      2,291      1,935
Clams 6/                      4,405      4,999      4,217      3,785
 1/ Also contains salmon with no specific species noted.
 2/ Included smoked and cured
 3/ Shrimp, canned, breaded or prepared.
 4/ Oysters, fresh or prepared.
 5/ Mussels, fresh or prepared.  6/ Clams, fresh or prepared.
 
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce.
 
Quantity and value of U.S. imports of selected seafood products
 
        Commodity              1991       1992       1993       1994
 
         Imports                                $1,000
 
Ornamental fish              36,105     41,122     45,249     46,770
Trout, live                      76        106        208        116
Trout, fresh & frozen         4,417      6,189      5,230      5,467
Atlantic salmon, fresh      107,912    125,857    155,196    169,708
Pacific salmon, fresh 1/    113,411     76,682     59,951     54,899
Atlantic salmon, frozen      10,531     16,133     19,983     21,019
Pacific salmon, frozen 1/    13,310     19,908     16,841     14,390
Canned & pre. salmon 2/      16,350     14,449     13,138     16,849
Shrimp, frozen            1,713,992  1,882,286  1,998,302  2,459,708
Shrimp, fresh & pre. 3/     142,676    135,162    171,288    224,128
Oysters 4/                   44,045     46,419     47,238     40,110
Mussels 5/                    7,090      7,619      8,661     13,178
Clams 6/                      6,758      6,935      6,822      9,936
Tilapia 7/                               6,029     18,029     25,586
 
                                                1,000 lb.
 
Ornamental fish                   0          0          0          0
Trout, live                       0          0          0          0
Trout, fresh & frozen         3,867      6,197      4,741      3,878
Atlantic salmon, fresh       39,709     48,843     62,860     68,254
Pacific salmon, fresh 1/     55,657     40,075     33,920     31,952
Atlantic salmon, frozen       3,687      5,302      7,714      7,851
Pacific salmon, frozen 1/     8,751     10,199     11,659     11,210
Canned & pre. salmon 2/       2,939      2,671      2,053      3,190
Shrimp, frozen              499,859    558,580    556,213    580,010
Shrimp, fresh & pre. 3/      39,737     36,782     44,765     47,910
Oysters 4/                   17,914     16,800     17,293     15,415
Mussels 5/                    6,595      7,657      9,658     11,032
Clams 6/                      6,975      6,192      5,818      8,265
Tilapia 7/                               7,474     24,789     32,088
 
1/ Also contains salmon with no specific species noted.
2/ Included smoked and cured
3/ Shrimp, canned, breaded, or prepared.
4/ Oysters, fresh or prepared.
5/ Mussels, fresh or prepared.  6/ Clams, fresh or prepared.
7/ Frozen whole fish plus fresh and frozen fillets.
 
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce.
 
    Catfish: Inventory numbers, as of January 1
 
                                  Broodfish
         State         1992     1993     1994     1995
 
                               --  1,000  --
 
    Alabama             199      123      129      171
    Arkansas            193      140      176      163
    California          1/        16       15       15
    Florida              11       10        4      1/
    Kentucky              4        7      1/         1
    Louisiana            55       45       85       41
    Mississippi         717      704      580      804
    Missouri             54       25       16       26
    North Carolina       16       35       15        8
    Oklahoma             11        8       50        8
    South Carolina      146        9       62      1/
    Tennesse            1/       1/       1/         3
    Texas                51       25       16       22
 
    Other 2/             34       22       35       39
 
    Total             1,491    1,169    1,183    1,301
 
                              Fingerlings/fry
         State         1992     1993     1994     1995
 
                               --  1,000  --
 
    Alabama          61,858   50,302   35,100   35,600
    Arkansas        109,010   62,680   90,493   80,990
    California          1/    68,739    5,318    5,000
    Florida           2,100    2,000    1,842    3,000
    Kentucky            794    1,120      1/       1/
    Louisiana        90,000   17,565   23,250   31,300
    Mississippi     541,552  425,506  460,948  533,275
    Missouri          8,966    7,596    9,873   11,656
    North Carolina    3,747    2,480    4,331    3,512
    Oklahoma          5,050      750    1,585    1,590
    South Carolina    7,160    1,732    4,493    3,578
    Tennesse            1/     4,401    1,165      1/
    Texas             3,436    1,645    4,022    9,676
 
    Other 2/         15,739   22,975    6,208    5,516
 
    Total           849,412  669,491  648,628  724,693
    1/ Data not published separately to avoid
    disclosing individual operations.
    2/ Includes Georgia and Kansas.
    Source: Catfish Growers Survey, NASS, USDA.
 
    Catfish: Inventory numbers, as of January 1
 
                                 Stockers
         State         1992     1993     1994     1995
 
                               -- 1,000 --
 
    Alabama          31,002   23,635   33,425   41,496
    Arkansas         64,253   68,269   49,031   57,207
    California          1/     6,839    9,925    3,030
    Florida             520      185      100      1/
    Kentucky            544      355      1/       1/
    Louisiana        35,800   21,379   27,300   28,850
    Mississippi     482,775  436,069  407,787  401,385
    Missouri          7,250    4,565   11,209      1/
    North Carolina    2,472    1,335    1,724    1,111
    Oklahoma            931      512    1,595    1,493
    South Carolina    2,077    1,375    2,570    2,477
    Tennesse            1/       1/     1,047      1/
    Texas             1,055      760    1,802    4,487
 
    Other 2/          5,674    5,976      692   12,806
 
    Total           634,353  571,254  548,207  554,342
 
                               Small food-size
         State         1992     1993     1994     1995
 
                               -- 1,000 --
 
    Alabama          21,345   22,240   16,360   21,000
    Arkansas         20,449   19,164   12,573   12,740
    California          1/       945      935    1,300
    Florida             486      200       37      1/
    Kentucky            103      210       58      1/
    Louisiana         6,400    8,024    7,100    8,450
    Mississippi     111,923   98,549   93,774   90,580
    Missouri            556    1,055    1,158      578
    North Carolina    1,937      923    1,070    1,097
    Oklahoma            140      255       60      146
    South Carolina    1,253      519      708    1,421
    Tennesse             98      513      215       52
    Texas               178      246      130      380
 
    Other 2/          1,863      757      136      416
 
    Total           166,731  153,600  134,314  138,160
    1/ Data not published separately to avoid
    disclosing individual operations.
    2/ Includes Georgia and Kansas.
    Source: Catfish Growers Survey, NASS, USDA.
 
    Catfish: Inventory numbers, as of January 1
 
                               Medium food-size
         State         1992     1993     1994     1995
 
                                --  1,000  --
 
    Alabama           5,921    4,917    4,905    8,180
    Arkansas          8,503    6,428    6,008    6,759
    California          1/       586      628      430
    Florida             153      120       28      1/
    Kentucky            110       70       42       90
    Louisiana         3,800    3,845    2,600    5,800
    Mississippi      48,473   43,692   32,284   35,892
    Missouri            759      557      485      411
    North Carolina      590      808      370      406
    Oklahoma            200      132      120      105
    South Carolina      249      173      887      687
    Tennesse            109       99      171      135
    Texas               328      205      189      195
 
    Other 2/          1,300      262      134       69
 
    Total            70,495   61,894   48,851   59,159
 
                                 Large food-size
         State         1992     1993     1994     1995
 
                                --  1,000  --
 
    Alabama             386      572      326      527
    Arkansas            974    1,166    1,001      566
    California          1/        72      222      110
    Florida              42      100       15      1/
    Kentucky             50       26       16       20
    Louisiana           700    1,265      220      335
    Mississippi       4,122    2,962    2,846    2,607
    Missouri             50       74      108      111
    North Carolina      108      102      167       52
    Oklahoma             45       13       30        3
    South Carolina       91      103       52       25
    Tennesse             44       35       76       12
    Texas                75      122      105      152
 
    Other 2/             82       86       12       16
 
    Total             6,769    6,698    5,196    4,536
    1/ Data not published separately to avoid
    disclosing individual operations.
    2/ Includes Georgia and Kansas.
    Source: Catfish Growers Survey, NASS, USDA.
 
    Catfish: Supply, sales, prices, and inventory
 
                          1994                                         1995
           Item           Aug.    Sept.     Oct.     Nov.     Dec.     Jan.
 
    Supply                                   1,000 lbs.
 
      Grower sales 1/   39,813   38,716   39,072   36,054   34,266   38,807
 
      Processor sales   18,997   17,983   19,151   16,399   15,461   19,191
        Fresh            7,432    7,327    7,374    6,482    6,317    7,273
          Whole          3,122    3,179    3,197    2,878    2,862    3,221
          Fillets        3,329    3,183    3,212    2,783    2,665    3,054
          Other            981      965      965      821      790      998
 
        Frozen          11,565   10,656   11,777    9,917    9,144   11,918
          Whole          1,337    1,357    1,421    1,322    1,169    1,573
          Fillets        6,809    6,267    6,689    5,739    5,311    6,614
          Other          3,419    3,032    3,667    2,856    2,664    3,731
 
      Processor invent   6,969    8,612    8,310    9,833   11,623   10,965
        Fresh              976    1,044      984      802    1,011      738
          Whole            352      376      317      243      184      262
          Fillets          519      551      555      453      722      393
          Other            105      117      112      106      105       83
 
        Frozen           5,993    7,568    7,326    9,031   10,612   10,227
          Whole            833    1,038      963    1,118    1,416    1,626
          Fillets        2,720    3,645    3,690    4,964    5,975    5,863
          Other          2,440    2,885    2,673    2,949    3,221    2,738
 
    Prices                                 Dollars per pound
 
      Farm price 3/       0.80     0.80     0.77     0.77     0.77     0.78
 
      Processor prices    2.46     2.42     2.37     2.39     2.37     2.35
        Fresh             2.31     2.27     2.27     2.25     2.21     2.21
          Whole           1.76     1.72     1.72     1.70     1.66     1.69
          Fillets         2.94     2.93     2.93     2.91     2.91     2.89
          Other           1.95     1.92     1.89     1.91     1.87     1.82
 
        Frozen            2.56     2.53     2.43     2.48     2.48     2.43
          Whole           2.03     2.05     2.06     2.02     2.01     1.98
          Fillets         2.94     2.90     2.87     2.88     2.85     2.83
          Other           2.01     1.97     1.78     1.90     1.95     1.91
    1/ Total live weight of fish delivered for processing.
    2/ Inventory at end of reporting period.
    3/ Live weight.
 
    Source: NASS, USDA