# VISTAS 2018 Regional Haze

and ASIP 2009 PM

2.5 

# Best and Final Projections

MANE

- VU TSC Call

March 18, 2008

# Best and Final Inventory

Changes for 2009 and 2018

 

# Point EGU and non

- EGU only

 

# Updates to EGU for consent decrees, changes

to control assumptions from IPM v2.1.9

 

# BART controls for non

- EGU known by Oct 2007

 

# Source specific corrections or controls

 

# For 2009 only, incorporate MRPO Base M point

source inventory

 

# Important for nonattainment areas bordering OH, IN

# VISTAS Point Source Emissions

2018 Annual SO2

**State BaseG2**  **B&F (G4) Delta** 

Alabama 249,075 239,154

- 9,921

Florida 213,387 265,838 +52,451

Georgia 138,778 127,680

- 10,914 **2018 Point Source SO2 (T**  **ons)**

Georgia 138,778 127,680

- 10,914

Kentucky 266,744 262,784

- 3,960

Mississippi 41,824 40,888

- 936

North Carolina 161,085 166,480 +5,395

South Carolina 146,851 147,787 +935

Te nnessee 189,919 169,354

- 20,565

Vi rginia 183,164 156,778

- 26,386

We st Vi rginia 168,128 167,901

- 227

**VIST AS T**  **otal 1,758,956**  **1,744,827**

**- 14,129** 

**Jan 31, 2008**

### CMA **Q 2018g4a**  **vs 2**  **018g2b Me**  **th od1 P**  **redi ct**  **ion at V**  **IS TA**  **S+ sit**  **es on W20% D**  **ay s** 

120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 220% 240%**P e** **r c** **e n** **t o** **f t** **a r** **g e** **t r** **e d** **u c** **t i** **o n** **a c** **h i** **e v** **e d**  2018g4a 12k

2018g2b 12k

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%COHU1DOSO1GRSM1JARI1LIGO1CADI1MACA1SHEN1SHRO1SIPS1CHAS1EVER1OKEF1ROMA1SAMA1SWAN1BRET1BRIG1CACR1HEGL1MING1UPBU1**P e** **r c** **e n** **t o** **f t** **a r** **g e** **t r** **e d** **u c** **t i** **o n** **a c** **h i** **e v** **e d** 

VI ST AS no n-V IS TA S

# 2018 Best and Final vs Base G2 Visibilit y Projections

**Class I**

**area 2000-04** 

**Baseline Uniform** 

**Progress Base G2**  **Difference**

**G2-Uniform Best and** 

**Final Difference** 

**BaF-G2**

**CHA S**  25.75 22.31 21.85 -0.46 22.27 0.42

**COHU** 30.25 25.71 22.84 -2.87 22.80 -0.03

**DOSO** 29.04 24.69 21.64 -3.04 21.50 -0.14

**EVER** 22.30 19.92 20.65 0.73 20.76 0.11

**GRSM** 30.28 25.79 23.66 -2.13 23.50 -0.16

**JA RI**  29.12 24.91 22.59 -2.32 22.36 -0.24

**LIGO** 28.77 24.67 21.98 -2.69 21.65 -0.33

**MA CA**  31.37 26.64 25.56 -1.07 25.40 -0.17

**OKEF** 27.13 23.42 23.85 0.43 23.82 -0.03

**ROM A**  26.48 23.12 22.72 -0.40 22.65 -0.07

**SA MA**  26.31 22.89 22.89 0.00 23.01 0.12

**SHEN** 29.31 25.12 22.11 -3.01 21.93 -0.18

**SHRO** 28.66 24.65 22.11 -2.54 21.92 -0.18

**SIPS** 29.03 24.80 23.69 -1.11 23.53 -0.16

**SWA N**  24.71 21.64 20.37 -1.27 20.26 -0.12

# State Dr aft Proposed Final

AL **11/16/07 3/10/08**  May 2008



# FL BAR

T TBD Summer? 2008



# GA April 2008 May 2008 Aug 2008



# KY **12/17/07 2/28/08**  May 2008 

# VIST AS States SIP Status

KY **12/17/07 2/28/08**  May 2008



# MS **12/11/07** Apr 2008 Jun 2008



# NC **8/2/07 10/12/07**  **12/17/07**



# SC **9/26/07 11/09/07**  **12/22/07**



# TN **10/11/07 Nov 07; 2/21/08**  Apr 2008



# VA **10/1/07** Jul 2008 Sep 2008



# WV **9/21/07 Nov 07**  ; May 08 July 2008

# VISTAS Questions

 

# ??

# ASIP 2009 Best and Final (Base G4)

PM 2.5 

# Design Value Projections

 

# 2009 Best and Final (Base G4) compared

to 2002 Base G2

 

# PM 2.5 

# Design Value (DV) Projections using

relative response factors (RRFs):

 

# SANDWICH Spreadsheet Approach same as

used for 2009 Base G2 (G4a_Excel)

 

# EPA beta MATS tool (Jan 10, 2008 version)

(G4a_MATS)

# ASIP **Point Source Emissions** 

**State Base G2**  **Best and**

**Final Difference** 

**BaF - G2**

**AL** 479,297 479,297 0

**FL** 251,565 354,482 102,917

**GA** 471,436 462,666 -8,769 

# 2009 **Annual SO2** 

**GA** 471,436 462,666 -8,769

**KY** 326,611 308,087 -18,524

**MS** 102,143 102,210 67

**NC** 284,822 284,823 0

**SC** 172,933 176,315 3,382

**TN** 326,088 320,374 -5,714

**VA** 255,672 232,816 -22,856

**WV** 333,463 324,550 -8,913

**Total** 3,004,030 3,045,620 41,589

##  

# Bottomline, 2009 emissions change slightly between

Base G2 and Best and Final (except FL increases)

 

# Consent decrees, local sources



# Bottomline, Best and Final results in slight decreases 

# ASIP **2009 Best and Final (Base G4)** 

**PM 2.5**  

# Design Value **Projections**

 

# Bottomline, Best and Final results in slight decreases

(0.0

- 0.1  g/m3) in PM 2.5 

# for most states

 

# Except WV, where 2009 Best and Final shows all

monitors in attainment (better than Base G2)

 

# Except FL, where PM2.5 increases due to increased

SO2, still low PM2.5 (mostly <10  g/m3)

### Georgia 12km 2009 Projected DVF by **G4a_EXCEL(Left) and**

**G4a_MA TS (Middle) andG2a_EXCEL (Right)** 

10 12 14 16 18**u g** **/ m** **3** PBW

NH4

Crustal

EC

0 2 4 6 8Bibb-0007Bibb-0012Chatham-0017Chatham-0091Clarke-0001Clayton-0091Cobb-0003Cobb-0004DeKalb-0002DeKalb-2001Dougherty-0007Floyd-0005Fulton-0032Fulton-0039Glynn-0006Gwinnett-0002Hall-0003Houston-0001Lowndes-0003Muscogee-0001Muscogee-0008Muscogee-0011Paulding-0003Richmond-0005Richmond-0091Walker-0002WashingtonWilkinson-0001

**Georgia u** **g /** **m 3** 

EC

OC

NO3

SO4

blank

### West Virginia 12km 2009 Projected DVF by **G4a_EXCEL(Left) and**

**G4a_MA TS (Middle) andG2a_EXCEL (Right)** 

10 12 14 16 18**u g** **/ m** **3** PBW

NH4

Crustal

EC

0 2 4 6 8Berkeley-0003Brooke-0005Cabell-0006Hancock-0011Hancock-1004Harrison-0003Kanawha-0010Kanawha-1005Marion-0006Marshall-1002Mercer-0002Monongalia-0003Ohio-0010Raleigh-0002Summers-0001Wood-1002

**West Virginia u** **g /** **m 3** 

EC

OC

NO3

SO4

blank

# Design Va lues f

or 2002 Baseline and 2009 Best and Final

fo r Selected Monitors in Nonattainment Areas

**St at**  **e Count**  **y 2002**  **Ba sel**  **in e**  **DVC 2009**  **B&F D**  **VF St**  **at e**  **Count y**  **2002 Ba**  **sel in**  **e DVC**  **2009 B&F**  **DVF**

AL Jef fe rs on 18. 4 17. 2 NC Ca ta wb a 15. 6 13. 0

AL Jef fe rs on 15. 0 13. 8 NC Da vi dson 16. 0 13. 3

AL Jef fe rs on 17. 1 15. 8 NC Gu il fo rd 0. 0 0. 0

AL Jef fe rs on 15. 1 13. 8 TN Ha mil to n 16. 3 14. 4

DC D. C ol um bia 15. 7 13. 0 TN Ha mil to n 15. 3 13. 6

DC D. C ol um bia 15. 1 12. 5 TN Kn ox 16. 0 13. 9

GA Cl ay to n 16. 5 14. 9 TN Kn ox 16. 7 14. 6

GA Co bb 16. 3 14. 6 TN Kn ox 16. 0 13. 9

GA De Kal b 15. 9 14. 4 WV Be rk el ey 16. 2 13. 6

GA De Kal b 16. 2 14. 4 WV Br ooke 16. 7 13. 8

GA Fu lto n 16. 5 14. 9 WV Ca bel l 16. 5 14. 1

GA Fu lto n 18. 3 16. 6 WV Ha nc ock 15. 8 13. 1

GA Gwi nne tt 16. 1 14. 3 WV Ha nc ock 17. 3 14. 2

GA Ri ch mo nd 15. 6 13. 8 WV Ka na wh a 15. 4 13. 2

GA Wal ker 15. 7 13. 9 WV Ka na wh a 17. 1 14. 8

KY Fay et te 15. 6 13. 4 WV Mar ion 15. 3 13. 0

KY Jef fe rs on 16. 6 14. 8 WV Mar sh al l 15. 6 13. 4

KY Jef fe rs on 16. 1 14. 2 WV Wood 16. 1 14. 0

KY Jef fe rs on 15. 4 13. 6

# ASIP Questions

 

# ??