AQUACULTURE OUTLOOK                                          October 8, 1996
            Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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AQUACULTURE OUTLOOK, a supplement to the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Monthly
report, is published twice a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  LDP-AQS-4.

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Catfish Output Record High

Catfish production is projected to top 460 million pounds in 1996, slightly
higher than the previous record set in 1993.  Through the first 8 months of
1996, live catfish deliveries to processing plants totaled 317 million pounds,
4 percent higher than in the same period in 1995.  This will be the second 
consecutive year of higher deliveries following a decline of approximately 20
million pounds in 1994.  In 1997, production growth is expected to continued
due to strong farm prices in 1996, increasing pond acreage, and higher fish
inventories.

At the start of July, grower inventories of fish in almost all size classes
were higher than the previous year.  The exceptions were broodfish, where the
numbers being held on farms fell by 21 percent, and large food-size fish, which
were down 19 percent.  Only growers in the four major producing States
(Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, and Louisiana) were surveyed for the July 1
inventory.  The lower numbers of broodfish and large food-size fish may affect
future egg production, but growers started the second half of 1996 with
considerably higher inventories in the other size classes.

As of July 1, growers reported that the number of small and medium food-size
fish inventories were up 36 and 8 percent, respectively.  These fish will be
marketed during the second half of 1996.  Increased supplies of
market-size fish are expected to put downward pressure on farm prices. 
However, some of this price pressure will be offset by processors' need to
build inventory for the winter quarter when live deliveries decline seasonally.

Changes in deliveries and farm prices going into the first quarter of 1997 will
depend on the growth of the stockers and fingerlings held on July 1.  The
survey showed that fingerlings and fry inventories totaled 1.6 billion fish, up
about 200 million from the previous year, while stockers rose 17 percent to 769
million.  Potential increases in market-size fish are expected to place some
downward pressure on future prices.

Farm Prices Remain High in 1996; Forecast To Decline in 1997

Farm prices for catfish in 1996 are projected at 78 cents a pound, fractionlly
lower than the previous 2 years.  In both 1994 and 1995, farm prices were
virturally identical, 78.4 and 78.6 cents a pound, respectively.  In 1997, farm
prices are forecast to decline due to the higher inventories of market-size
fish and expanding production of beef, pork, and poultry.

Acreage Growth Continues in Major States

With favorable prices over the last 2-1/2 years, catfish growers are continuing
to cautiously expand their pond acreage.  Growers have indicated that available
pond acreage in the second half of 1996 should be up by about 4 percent from
the first half.  Pond acreage in production reported by the four 
major producing States for second-half 1996 was 162,100 acres.  Acreage rose in
each of the States, with Mississippi reporting over 100,000 acres.  In
addition, growers reported that about 9,600 acres of ponds were being renovated
or are under construction.   Further growth in pond acreage is dependent on
price movement of both catfish and feed in 1997.

Farmer Revenues Near Record in 1996 

With deliveries of live fish to processing plants in 1996 projected at 460 to
465 million pounds and prices received by farmers likely to average close to 78
cents a pound, farm revenues for catfish are expected to set a new record.  The
total is expected to slightly surpass the previous record of $351 million set
in 1995.  While revenues are projected to be higher in 1996, grower returns
have been squeezed most of the year by flat processor prices and rapidly
increasing prices for feed.  Grain prices are expected to decline in the fourth
quarter and into first-half 1997 and move below the high price levels seen in
1996.

Processor Sales Higher 

Over the first 8 months of 1996, processors sold 162 million pounds of catfish
products, 4 percent higher than in 1995.  Annual sales in 1996 are projected to
be 235 to 240 million pounds and prices are expected to average between $2.38
and $2.40 a pound, about even with 1995.  The growth in volume is expected to
push processor revenues to approximately $565 million, a record.  

Stocks of processed catfish products stored by processors were reported at 9.7
million pounds as of the end of August, up 10 percent from the previous year. 
This is expected to put only mild downward pressure on wholesale prices, as
processors tend to increase stocks in the second half of the year for the peak
demand period in the spring.

The higher revenues in 1996 have been due almost exclusively to higher sales
volume as the weighted average price for fresh and frozen catfish products was
down slightly over the first 8 months of 1996, compared with the previous year. 
In both the fresh and frozen product markets, rising sales of fillets have been
the chief factor keeping sales up.  Through August, fresh fillet sales were up
13 percent and frozen fillet sales were up 9 percent.  Sales of "other"
products, chiefly steaks, nuggets, and belly strips, have been the weakest
category so far in 1996, with sales and prices in both the fresh and frozen
markets declining from the previous year.  Catfish sales are expected to
continue at current levels through the rest of 1996 and into 1997.  Sales to
restaurants and food service businesses are projected to increase given the
current strong growth in the economy.

Trout Sales Fall to $72 Million

Recently released data from USDA's trout survey showed 1996 (September 1, 1995
to August 31, 1996) total sales at $72 million, down 3 percent from last year's
record $73.9 million.  The decrease stemmed from lower sales of food-size fish,
as sales of stockers, fingerlings, and eggs increased.

Sales of food-size trout fell 6 percent in 1996, to $56.9 million, due to a
4-percent lower volume and a 3-percent lower price.  Idaho is the largest
producer, but its production at 40 million pounds has been flat for the last 3
years.  The decline in food-size sales was due chiefly to falling sales in
North Carolina, Utah, and Washington.  In each state, sales in 1995 had been
record high.  Most of the decline in 1996 was due to a lower volume of fish
sold.   Not all areas showed declines -- sales increased in Pennsylvania and
Wisconsin as both poundage and average prices were higher.

After falling in 1995, sales of stockers rose 15 percent in 1996, to $7.4
million.  Sales increased because of a 23-percent increase in poundage, as the
average price per pound fell by 15 cents to $2.13.  Year-over-year changes in
stocker sales were the mirror image of food-size sales; with increasing sales
in North Carolina, Utah, and Washington and decreasing sales in Pennsylvania
and Wisconsin.

Sales of fingerlings and eggs showed strong growth in 1996.  Fingerling sales
were up 43 percent as a large increase in the volume of fish more than offset
falling prices.  Egg sales rose strongly, up 7 percent, the second consecutive
annual increase.  Normally, greater sales of eggs and fingerlings would signal
higher sales of stockers and food-size fish in the following year.  However,
this did not prove true in 1996 after egg and fingerling sales rose in 1995.

A portion of the higher egg sales may have been going into the export market. 
Exports of trout eggs reached $861,000 in first-half 1996, 23 percent higher
than in the same period in 1995.  Between January and June of 1996, exports of
fresh and frozen trout products totaled $1.6 million, an increase of 22 percent
from the previous year.

Tilapia Imports Higher

Over first-half 1996, tilapia imports rose by 23 percent compared with
first-half 1995.  Most of the increase was from higher imports from Colombia,
Ecuador, and Taiwan.  The value of tilapia imports rose even faster, increasing
to $20.3 million, 32 percent above the previous year.  The average value
of frozen tilapia increased the most, going from 63 cents a pound in the first
half of 1995 to 72 cents in the first half of 1996.

On a liveweight equivalent basis, tilapia imports for first-half 1996 were just
over 28 million pounds.  With 1996's imports projected at 55 to 60 million
pounds on a liveweight basis and domestic production for 1996 in the 18- to
20-million pound range, tilapia is becoming one of the most common fish species
consumed in the United States.

Although Tiawan continues to dominate U.S. tilapia imports, Ecuador has emerged
as a major supplier, ranking third in first-half 1996, just behind Costa Rica. 
Ecuador is the largest producer of farm-raised shrimp in the Western
Hemisphere, and their aquaculture industry is now diversifying.  In some cases,
tilapia are being produced in former shrimp ponds.

While imports of frozen whole fish and fresh fillets rose during first-half
1996, imports of frozen fillets fell 23 percent.  The decline is the result of
lower imports from Thailand and Taiwan.  These declines
were only partially offset by a 30-percent increase in imports from Indonesia. 
Not only did Indonesia increase the quantity of frozen fillets shipped to the
United States, but the average import price went from $1.78 a pound in
first-half 1995 to $2.05 a pound in first-half 1996.

Domestic production of tilapia is projected by the American Tilapia Association
to approach 19 million pounds in 1996.  The bulk of production comes from the
west, with California the leader.  Tilapia production is also increasing in
Arizona.  In both cases, the primary market is the live fish trade,
primarily for oriental markets in southern California and other large
metropolitan areas.  The second largest production area is in the southern tier
of States.  The concentration of tilapia production in warm areas stems from
the need to reduce the cost of maintaining optimum growing temperatures for
these warmwater fish.

Atlantic Salmon Imports Up 31 Percent in First-Half 1996

During January to June of 1996, the United States imported 67 million pounds of
Atlantic salmon, 31 percent more than the same period in 1995.  The value of
imports rose 17 percent and topped the $150 million mark.  Currently, 1996
salmon imports are projected to reach 130-140 million pounds with a value of
over $300 million.

The large increase in Atlantic salmon imports has resulted in falling prices. 
Prices for all imported Atlantic salmon in first-half 1996 was $2.24 a pound,
down 10 percent from the same period in 1995.  What makes the decline more
serious is that it occurred at a time when imports of fillets were
increasing as a proportion of all Atlantic salmon imports.  In first-half 1996,
fillets made up 25 percent of the imports, compared with 16 percent in 1995. 
Normally, an increase in the proportion of fish being imported as higher priced
fillets would raise the average per unit value.

Another major change in the U.S. import situation is that Chile has surpassed
Canada as the main supplier of Atlantic salmon.  While Canada's exports to the
United States were up 7 percent in first-half 1996, shipments from Chile rose
by 54 percent to 34 million pounds, 24 percent larger than Canada's 27 million
pounds.  The majority of growth in Chilean exports to the United States was in
the fillet market.  Imports of fillets from Chile more than doubled from the
previous year and made up almost a quarter of all imports.

Although Chile's exports to the United States were 24 percent larger on a
quantity basis, Canada still had an advantage in total value.  In first-half
1996, imports from Canada were $73 million, up only slightly from the same
period in 1995, but still $5 million higher than Chilean imports.  With its
advantage in the total quantity of products shipped and its dominance in the
higher priced fillet market, Chile should have a higher per unit price and a
higher total value.  However, Canadian fresh salmon imports have a much higher
import price than their Chilean counterparts.

Quantity and Value of Shrimp Imports Down in 1996

Declining quantities and falling prices combined to lower the value of shrimp
imports to the United States in first-half 1996 to slightly over $975 million,
down 10 percent from the same period in 1995.  This is the third consecutive
year that the quantity of imported shrimp has fallen.  In the past, rising
prices kept the value of shrimp imports rising.  For first-half 1996, the
quantity of shrimp imports declined by only 3 percent, but overall prices for
shrimp imports were down 7 percent.

The changes in import quantity and value varied widely among the many differing
import categories and exporting countries.  Frozen shrimp accounts for over 90
percent of all shrimp imports and is further divided between frozen shell-on
and frozen peeled.  During first-half 1996, imports of frozen shrimp were down
5 percent in quantity, with frozen shell-on shrimp falling 5 percent, and
frozen peeled shrimp declining 7 percent.  Among frozen shell-on shrimp
imports, the quantity and value of shrimp in the largest size categories
(shrimp are graded according to the number per pound or kilo) rose compared
with the previous year, while the quantities and values were lower for smaller
size shrimp.  These smaller shrimp often are farm-raised products, especially
the types grown by producers in the Western Hemisphere such as those in Mexico
and Ecuador. 

Imports of fresh or prepared shrimp were moving in the opposite direction. 
Over first-half 1996, imports of fresh or prepared shrimp totaled 25 million
pounds, 23 percent higher than in the same period in 1995.  A major cause of
the increase was a 72-percent rise in the quantity of fresh shell-on shrimp
imported.

On a country basis, U.S. shrimp imports from the three largest suppliers,
Thailand, Mexico, and Ecuador, were lower than in 1995.  In each case, lower
values were a combination of falling quantities and declining prices.  Imports
from Thailand, the largest supplier, were down 12 percent on a quantity
basis and 15 percent on a price basis.  Partially countering these declines
were stronger imports from Indonesia and India.  Shrimp farming is growing
rapidly in both countries, but in addition, each has a large wild-harvest
industry.  Imports from India are especially important in the largest size
classes of frozen shell-on shrimp.

Crawfish Imports Fall Heavily

After rising rapidly over the last 2 years, U.S. imports of crawfish meat from
China in first-half 1996 were only 139,000 pounds, down 63 percent from the
same period in 1995.  U.S. imports of crawfish meat from China had risen to
$9.1 million in 1995, a more than fourfold increase in only 2 years.

This rapid increase in imports in 1994 and 1995 heavily influenced the domestic
crawfish industry in Louisiana.  In response to what was viewed as unfair trade
practices, a charge was made that Chinese crawfish meat is being sold in the
United States at prices below their cost of production.  This is typically
referred to as an antidumping suit.  The charges will be investigated by the
International Trade Commission and the Department of Commerce.  If the charges
are substantiated, countervailing duties could be placed on imports of crawfish
meat from China.

Although smaller amounts of crawmeat were shipped to the United States in
first-half 1996, domestic crawfish exporters were meeting a much weaker export
market in the Scandanivan countries.  Even with a 15-cent-a-pound increase in
the average export price, U.S. crawfish exports fell to $4 million, 43
percent lower than in first-half 1995.  This is the second year of sharp
declines, as $13.2 million of crawfish were exported in first-half 1994.

U.S. Oyster and Mussel Exports Down, Mollusk Imports Continue Higher

U.S. mollusk exporters had mixed success in first-half 1996, as the quantity of
oyster and mussel exports fell but, the export value of both mollusks rose. 
For clam exports, both the quantity and value of exports were higher.  Pacific
Rim countries continue to be a growing market for U.S. mollusks.  Hong Kong has
been expanding especially fast, although some of the product is likely being
transshipped to China.  

Oyster exports declined in quantity as shipments to Canada, Taiwan, and Japan
were down.  The value of oyster exports was higher as prices to Taiwan and
Japan both rose considerably.

The quantity of domestic mussel exports fell 1 percent in first-half 1996, but
their value rose 70 percent.  Shipments of live mussels fell 60 percent, but
were compensated by larger exports of other mussel products.  The big increase
in exports of these higher value products were to Mexico and Taiwan.

Clam exports expanded, with quantity up 27 percent and value up 26 percent. 
Larger exports to Hong Kong, Japan, and the United Kingdom more than offset
lower shipments to Canada and Mexico.
   
During the first 6 months of 1996, U.S. imports of mollusks (oysters, clams,
and mussels) totaled 18.4 million pounds valued at $27.6 million, a 13-percent
increase in quantity and a 3-percent increase in value.  Most of the increase
in quantity came from a 32-percent increase in the amounts of mussels shipped
to the United States.  This is the fourth consecutive year that mussel imports
have risen.  Over this 4-year period, import quantities have risen 269 percent. 
Farmed mussels make up about a third of the total, and their chief source is
Canada.  Non-farmed live mussels and other mussel products make up the other
two-thirds.  These products come mainly from Canada and New Zealand.

The quantity and value of clam imports were higher in first-half 1996, although
in both cases they were lower than those in 1994.  Larger shipments from
Thailand and China more than offset lower imports from Chile.

Oyster imports in first-half 1996 declined to 5.1 million pounds and $13.5
million.  This is the third consecutive year that both the quantity and the
value of oyster imports have fallen.  U.S. oyster landings, while up and down
on a yearly basis, have recently been trending upward boosted by larger
harvests in the Gulf and greater farmed production.  Korea is the major
supplier of oysters to the United States.

Ornamental Fish Exports and Imports Higher

U.S. exports of ornamental fish were valued at $8.3 million in first-half 1996,
down 17 percent from the same period in 1995, the second consecutive year that
export values have declined.  Shipments to Mexico and the European Union were
higher, but they could not offset lower exports to the United States' major
markets of Japan, Hong Kong, Canada, and Taiwan.  Much of the decrease may be
attributable to the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies.

Imports of ornamental fish during the first 6 months of 1996 showed little
change from the same period in 1995.  The total value of imports fell 1 percent
as larger shipments from Singapore and Hong Kong failed to compensate for a
drop in the value of imports from Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines.


Principal contributor:
Dave Harvey 202-219-0839