**Mandatory**

**Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences DRA** **FT 7/11/2014 Regional Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating**  Installation Contractors **Region Pacific**  **Number of Homes 334,231** 

**Base Case**

**Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas**  **Furnace Change w/o** 

**Fuel Switching Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes Switching to**  **Electric Heater Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes Switching to**  **Electric Heat Pump**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes with**  **Natural Gas Furnace**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes**  **Switching from Gas**  **Water Heater Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes**  **Switching to Electric Water**  **Heater Total Gas** 

**Consumption with Fuel**  **Switching (Dth)**  **Change in**

**Electric Consumption**  **Compared to Base Case**  **(MWh) Change in Gas** 

**Consumption Compared to Base Case (Dth)** 

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95 Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kW h 1 34.9 31.0 -3.9 8,106 3,276 31.0 18.5 3,537 % of homes impacted 29.3% 100.0% **6.8% 11.9%**  **81.3% 6.9%**  **-6.9%** Number of homes impacted 97,838 97,838 97,838 6,646 11,631 79,561 6,786 -6,786 Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & electrcity in MW H. 3,414,562 3,032,992 -381,570 53,875 38,104 2,466,389 125,539 -24,002 2,591,928 67,977 -822,634

**Customer Operating Cost Impact** Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost ($/Yr) **Change in Energy Cost**  **Compared to Base Case with Fuel Switching ($/Yr)**  Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kW h $13.00 $13.00 $13.00 $0.2018 $0.2018 $13.00 $13.00 $0.2018 Annual heating operating cost to residential customers $44,389,301 $39,428,892 -$4,960,409 $10,869,890 $7,687,772 $32,063,055 $1,632,008 -$4,842,576 $33,695,063 $13,715,086 **$3,020,848**

**Full Fuel Cy cle Source Energy**  **Impact** Gas Source Energy (Dth/Yr) Electricity

Source Energy (Dth/Yr) **Change in Source Energy**

**Compared to Base Case w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr)**  Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 2.74 2.74 1.09 1.09 2.74 Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 3,721,872 3,305,961 -415,911 503,823 356,331 2,688,364 136,838 -224,455 2,825,201 635,699 **-260,972**

**CO 2** **e Emissions Impact** Gas CO2e emissions (Tons/Yr) Electricity

CO2e Emissions (Tons/Yr) **Change in CO2e Emissions**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Switching**  **(Tons/Yr)**
CO 2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and lbs/MW H for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 1,182 1,182 147.0 147.0 1,182.0

Total CO 2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 228,155 202,659 -25,496 28,946 20,472 164,800 8,388 -12,895 173,188 36,522 **-18,445**

**CO 2** **Externalities Impact** Gas CO2 Externalities Cost ($/Yr) Electricity CO2

Externalities Cost ($/Yr) **Change in CO2**

**Externalities Compared to Base Case with Fuel**  **Switching ($/Yr)** CO 2Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 Total Annual CO 2externalities Impact ($/Yr) $8,441,728 $7,498,383 -$943,345 $1,070,995 $757,465 $6,097,586 $310,367 -$477,132 $6,407,953 $1,351,328 **-$682,447 High Efficiency** 

**Impact High Efficiency**  **Impacts with Fuel Switching**

**Site Energy**

**Consumption Impact - Residential Heating and Water Heating** 

2/23/2007**Ma ndatory Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences**  **DRA FT 7/11/2014** 

**National Impact of Fuel Switching on Residential Heating** Installation Contractors **Region AL**  **L Number of Homes**  **2,243,397**

**Base Case**

**Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas**  **Furnace Change w/o** 

**Fuel Switching Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes Switching to**  **Electric Heater Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes Switching to**  **Electric Heat Pump**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes with**  **Natural Gas Furnace**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes**  **Switching from Gas**  **Water Heater Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes**  **Switching to Electric Water**  **Heater Total Gas** 

**Consumption with Fuel**  **Switching (Dth) Change in** 

**Electric Consumption**  **Compared to Base Case**  **(MWh) Change in Gas** 

**Consumption Compared to Base Case (Dth)** 

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% 100% 8.1 90% 0.62 0.95 Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kW h 1 52.0 46.2 -5.8 18,958 5,409 45.2 20.2 3,863 % of homes impacted 32.3% 100.0% **3.2% 19.1%**  **77.8% -3.4%**  **3.4%** Number of homes impacted 724,258 724,258 724,258 22,880 138,250 563,128 (24,693) 24,693 Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & electrcity in MW H. 37,626,736 33,427,016 -4,199,720 433,764 747,859 25,461,225 (498,954) 95,400 24,962,270 1,277,023 -12,664,466

**Customer Operating Cost Impact** Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost ($/Yr) **Change in Energy Cost**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Switching ($/Yr)**  Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kW h $8.53 $8.53 $8.54 $0.1253 $0.1171 $8.60 $6.40 $0.0871 Annual heating operating cost to residential customers 321,113,308 285,257,499 (35,855,810) 54,363,152 87,605,426 218,934,285 (3,191,761) 8,313,261 $215,742,524 $150,281,839 **$44,911,055**

**Full Fuel Cycle Source Energy Impact** Gas Source Energy (Dth/Yr) Electricity

Source Energy (Dth/Yr) **Change in Source Energy**

**Compared to Base Case w/Fuel Switching (Dth/Yr)**  Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 3.34 3.22 1.09 1.09 3.42 Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 41,013,142 36,435,447 (4,577,695) 4,938,621 8,217,494 27,752,735 (543,860) 1,111,996 27,208,874 14,268,111 **463,844**

**CO 2** **e Emissions Impact** Gas CO2e emissions (Tons/Yr) Electricity

CO2e Emissions (Tons/Yr) **Change in CO2e Emissions**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Switching**  **(Tons/Yr)**
CO2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and lbs/MW H for electricity 147.0 147.0 147.0 2,127.7 1,985.8 147.0 147.0 2,312.1

Total CO2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 2,514,150 2,233,532 (280,618) 419,512 675,034 1,701,273 (33,339) 100,259 1,667,933 1,194,806 **348,589**

**CO 2** **Externalities Impact** Gas CO2 Externalities Cost ($/Yr) Electricity CO2

Externalities Cost ($/Yr) **Change in CO2 Externalities**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Switching ($/Yr)** 
CO2Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 Total Annual CO2externalities Impact ($/Yr) 93,023,553 82,640,699 (10,382,854) 15,521,945 24,976,264 62,947,091 (1,233,552) 3,709,596 $61,713,539 $44,207,805 **$12,897,792 Site Energy Consumption Impact - Residential** 

**Heating and Water Heating High Efficiency Impact**  **High Efficiency Impacts with Fuel Switching All**  **Pacific Mountain**  **North West** 

**North Central**  **East North**

**Central Middle** 

**Atlantic** Number of units shipped 2,243,397 334,231 131,667 212,692 592,500 263,333
Furnace Shipments: AHRI 2012 Gas Warm Air Furnace Shipments http://www.ari.org/site/497/Resources/Statistics/Historical-Data/Furnaces-Historical-Data
Census Division Shipments Prorated Using RECS 2009 Gas Furnace Stock in Tables HC 6.8 through HC 6.11 (http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2009/) RECS Furnaces (Millions) 44.3 6.6 2.6 4.2 11.7 5.2 

## Installation Contractors **Numbers per year**



## Region**New**

**England South** 

**Atlantic East** 

**South Central**  **West**

**South Central**  **Mountain**

**South** 50,641 238,013 101,282 232,949 86,090

Census Division Shipments Prorated Using RECS 2009 Gas Furnace Stock in Tables HC 6.8 through HC 6.11 (http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2009/) 1 4.7 2 4.6 1.7**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  **West North**

**Central East North** 

**Central** Natural Gas - minimum 80% (Dth) 34.9 63.4 98.7 80.3 Natural Gas - condensing 90% (Dth) 31.0 56.4 87.7 71.3 Electric Resistance 100% (kWh) 8,106.0 14,720.0 23,019.0 18,689.0 Electric Heat Pump 8.1 HSPF (kWh) 3,276.0 6,503.0 12,796.0 8,765.0 Gas Water Heater .62 EF (Dth) 18.5 20.7 21.7 20.8 Electric Water Heater .95 EF (kWh) 3,537.0 3,950.0 4,156.0 3,980.0
Consumption Estimates from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool V6.1 (www.cmictools.com) Residential Detached - 2 Story, 2171 SF Representative Cities for Estimates: US Ave. Sacramento Boise Minneapolis Chicago 

## Installation Contractors **Annual Energy Consumption Middle** 

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East South** 

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**
67.8 78.3 35.8 40.5 23.7 10.6 60.2 69.6 31.8 36.0 21.1 9.4 15,775.0 18,264.0 8,315.0 9,394.0 5,497.0 2,482.0 6,756.0 8,252.0 3,427.0 3,962.0 2,229.0 996.0 20.0 20.6 18.5 18.7 17.1 15.6 3,817.0 3,935.0 3,537.0 3,567.0 3,272.0 2,992.0

Philadelphia Boston Charlotte Knoxville Dallas Phoenix 

## Installation Contractors **Annual Energy Consumption**



## Region**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  **West**

**North Central**  **East**

**North Central**  Electricity ($/kWh) 0.125 0.202 0.103 0.116 0.103 Natural gas ($/Dth) 8.61 13.00 7.85 6.80 7.70 Electricity - source energy factor 3.14 2.74 2.98 3.59 3.30 Natural gas - source energy factor 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09
Division Source Energy Factors From SEEAT V 6.1 (www.cmictools.com) eGRID Subregion Non-Baseload Plants US Total is from Average Power Plants US AVE CAMX NWPP MROW RFCW 3.14 2.74 2.98 3.59 3.3 Marginal Prices for Electricity derived in "Electric Marginal Data" Tab. Representative States for Divisions Total CA ID MN IL cents/kWh 12.5 20.2 10.3 11.6 10.3 Marginal Prices for Natural Gas from AGA Rate Survey Q3 2013 Representative States for Divisions Total CA ID MN IL 100 Therm Marginal Prices ($/Therm) 0.861 1.3 0.785 0.68 0.77 

## Installation Contractors **Prices and Source Efficiency**



## Region**Middle**

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East** 

**South Central**  **West**

**South Central**  **Mountain**

**South**
0.130 0.175 0.103 0.130 0.083 0.103 9.50 9.70 9.99 7.59 6.31 9.50 3.20 2.82 3.14 3.25 3.00 2.90 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09
Division Source Energy Factors From SEEAT V 6.1 (www.cmictools.com) eGRID Subregion Non-Baseload Plants RFCE NEWE SRVC SRTV ERCT AZNM 3.2 2.82 3.14 3.25 3 2.9

PA MA NC TN TX AZ 13.0 17.5 10.3 13.0 8.3 10.3

PA MA NC TN TX AZ 0.95 0.97 0.999 0.759 0.631 0.95 

## Prices and Source Efficiency



## RegionCensus Regions Census

Division Census

Division + 4 Lrg States Analysis

Regions Analysis

Regions 3 6 6 6 3 4 9 9 9 1 4 8 8 8.1 2 3 7 7 7 3 4 9 11 11 2 4 8 8 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 5 5 5 3 3 5 5 5 3 3 5 13 13 3 3 5 5 5 3 4 9 9 9.1 3 4 8 8 8 1 2 3 3 3 1 2 3 3 3 1 2 4 4 4 1 2 4 4 4 1 3 6 6 6 3 3 7 7 7 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 5 5 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 1 2 4 4 4 1 3 6 6 6 3 2 4 4 4 1 4 8 8 8 1 2 4 4 4 1 4 8 8 8.1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 4 8 8 8.1 2 1 2 10 10 1 3 5 5 5 3 2 4 4 4 12 3 3 3 1 3 7 7 7 3 4 9 9 9 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 5 5 5 3 2 4 4 4 1 3 6 6 6 3 3 7 12 12 3 4 8 8 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 5 5 5 3 4 9 9 9 1 3 5 5 5.1 1 2 3 3 3 1 4 8 8 8 1

Source; Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furnaces and Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 2011. TSD_Appendix_8-F_Technical_Aspects_of_the_Tariff-Based_Approach.pdf http://www.regulations.gov/contentStreamer?objectId=0900006480f463f4&disposition=attachment&contentType=pdfUS $2008 Marginal

State Name **Summer - July Med.**  **Marg. (TAP) c/kWh**  SummerJuly Avr. EEI c/kWh **Winter- Jan.**

**Med. Marg. (TAP) c/kWh**  Winter - Jan.

Avr. EEI c/kWh **Summer - July Med.**  **Marg. (TAP) c/kWh**  Alabama AL **9.0** 11.8 **9.0** 11.2 **9.8** Alaska AK 14.0 **14.0**

**-** Arizona AZ **10.7** 11.1 **9.0** 9.0 **12.2** Arkansas AR **10.0** 9.1 **9.5** 8.0 **10.3** California CA **18.5** 14.8 **17.0** 14.9 **22.0** Colorado CO **13.5** 11.0 **12.0** 9.8 **15.8** Connecticut CT **18.4** 21.9 **18.5** 20.0 **16.6** Delaware DE **14.6** 15.0 **15.0** 15.0 **13.6** District of Columbia DC **13.7** 14.0 **13.0** 11.0 **13.5** Florida FL **10.0** 11.0 **10.0** 10.9 **9.8** Georgia GA **10.0** 10.5 **9.0** 9.0 **11.3** Hawaii HI **19.4** 35.0 **19.0** 30.0 **22.0** Idaho ID **11.1** 7.5 **10.4** 7.0 **11.0** Illinois IL **7.5** 11.0 **7.0** 10.9 **11.0** Indiana IN **11.3** 10.0 **11.4** 10.8 **11.1** Iowa IA **10.0** 10.8 **9.0** 9.0 **12.6** Kansas KS **7.7** 10.1 **7.0** 8.0 **10.0** Kentucky KY **7.9** 8.0 **7.5** 7.5 **9.7** Louisiana LA **10.0** 11.8 **10.0** 9.8 **9.1** Maine ME **17.2** 17.5 **17.0** 16.8 **15.2** Maryland MD **14.9** 14.8 **14.6** 13.0 **14.3** Massachusetts MA **19.0** 19.0 **19.5** 18.2 **17.0** Michigan MI **13.1** 10.0 **12.0** 10.0 **17.8** Minnesota MN **10.8** 9.9 **9.5** 9.0 **13.2** Mississippi MS **12.6** 13.5 **12.3** 11.3 **13.1** Missouri MO **8.5** 10.0 **6.5** 8.5 **11.2** Montana MT **7.9** 10.0 **8.0** 9.0 **9.0** Nebraska NE **10.6 7.5**  **13.9** Nevada NV **12.8** 13.0

**-** New Hampshire NH **15.2** 16.0 **15.4** 14.7 **15.9** New Jersey NJ **17.6** 18.0 **15.8** 14.7 **17.7** New Mexico NM **10.0** 11.0 **8.5** 9.2 **11.7** New York NY **10.0** 13.2 **18.0** 16.5 **10.3** North Carolina NC **10.5** 10.0 **9.0** 9.0 **12.0** North Dakota ND 8.5 8.3

**-**Ohio OH **9.8** 11.3 **8.5** 11.0 **11.6**

Oklahoma OK **9.9** 10.0 **8.7** 8.7 **10.5** Oregon OR **6.5** 8.0 **5.8** 8.0 **7.6** Pennsylvania PA **12.0** 13.1 **11.5** 12.5 **13.6** Rhode Island RI 15.1 15.2

**-** South Carolina SC **9.9** 10.0 **9.5** 9.5 **11.8** South Dakota SD 9.9 9.0

**-** Tennessee TN **10.3** 6.0 **11.5** 5.5 **11.6** Texas TX **7.0** 11.1 **9.5** 9.0 **6.1** Utah UT **8.0** 8.3 **7.0** 7.0 **10.1** Vermont VT **13.9** 14.0 **14.8** 14.8 **16.5** Virginia VA **8.9** 8.3 **6.9** 8.9 **10.1** Washington WA **4.5** 7.0 **4.1** 7.0 **5.2** West Virginia WV **7.0** 7.0 **7.0** 7.0 **9.4** Wisconsin WI **12.5** 12.0 **12.5** 11.0 **14.9** Wyoming WY 8.5 8.1

**-**
Source; Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furnaces and Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 2011.
http://www.regulations.gov/contentStreamer?objectId=0900006480f463f4&disposition=attachment&contentType=pdfUS $2013

**Winter- Jan. Med. Marg.**  **(TAP) c/kWh** State Name 2008

Residentia l Annual Average c/KWh 2013

Residentia l Annual Average c/KWh 2013 to

2008 Price Ratio **9.8** AL Alabama 10.4 11.27 1.0837 **15.4** AK Alaska 16.56 18.19 1.0984 **10.3** AZ Arizona 10.27 11.74 1.1431 **9.7** AR Arkansas 9.27 9.51 1.0259 **20.2** CA California 13.81 16.39 1.1868 **14.1** CO Colorado 10.13 11.87 1.1718 **16.6** CT Connecticut 19.54 17.58 0.8997 **14.0** DE Delaware 13.93 13.01 0.9340 **12.8** DC District of Columbia 12.78 12.56 0.9828 **9.8** FL Florida 11.65 11.36 0.9751 **10.2** GA Georgia 9.93 11.24 1.1319 **21.6** HI Hawaii 32.5 36.9 1.1354 **10.3** ID Idaho 9.49 9.37 0.9874 **10.3** IL Illinois 6.99 10.25 1.4664 **11.2** IN Indiana 11.07 10.84 0.9792 **11.3** IA Iowa 8.87 11.15 1.2570 **9.1** KS Kansas 8.89 11.56 1.3003 **9.2** KY Kentucky 7.94 9.71 1.2229 **9.1** LA Louisiana 10.28 9.39 0.9134 **15.0** ME Maine 16.24 14.35 0.8836 **14.0** MD Maryland 13.84 13.24 0.9566 **17.5** MA Massachusetts 17.56 15.73 0.8958 **16.3** MI Michigan 10.75 14.59 1.3572 **11.6** MN Minnesota 9.74 11.94 1.2259 **12.8** MS Mississippi 10.39 10.82 1.0414 **8.5** MO Missouri 8 10.52 1.3150 **9.1** MT Montana 9.13 10.38 1.1369 **9.8** NE Nebraska 7.87 10.31 1.3100 **12.8** NV Nevada 11.93 11.89 0.9966 **16.1** NH New Hampshire 15.68 16.36 1.0434 **15.9** NJ New Jersey 15.66 15.72 1.0038 **9.9** NM New Mexico 10.01 11.69 1.1678 **18.5** NY New York 18.31 18.84 1.0289 **10.3** NC North Carolina 9.52 10.91 1.1460

**-** ND North Dakota 7.52 9.1 1.2101**10.1** OH Ohio 10.06 11.91 1.1839

**9.2** OK Oklahoma 9.09 9.62 1.0583 **6.8** OR Oregon 8.49 9.94 1.1708 **13.0** PA Pennsylvania 11.35 12.82 1.1295

**-** RI Rhode Island 17.45 15.47 0.8865 **11.4** SC South Carolina 9.89 11.82 1.1951

**-** SD South Dakota 8.27 10.26 1.2406 **13.0** TN Tennessee 8.91 10.04 1.1268 **8.3** TX Texas 13.03 11.37 0.8726 **8.8** UT Utah 8.26 10.42 1.2615 **17.5** VT Vermont 14.48 17.15 1.1844 **7.8** VA Virginia 9.62 10.93 1.1362 **4.7** WA Washington 7.54 8.67 1.1499 **9.4** WV West Virginia 7.06 9.52 1.3484 **14.9** WI Wisconsin 11.51 13.7 1.1903

**-** WY Wyoming 8.21 10.18 1.2400

Source; http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/ Average Price by

State by Provider (EIA-861)1990-2012 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/avgprice_annual.xls1990-2012 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/avgprice_annual.xls**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  **West**

**North Central**  **East**

**North Central**  **Middle**

**Atlantic** Electricity (lbs/MWh) 1,443 1,182 1,636 2,301 2,242 1,878 Natural gas (lbs CO2/MMBtu) 147 147 147 147 147 147 CO 2value ($/tonne) 37 37 37 37 37 37
Division CO2e Emission Factors From SEEAT V 6.1 (www.cmictools.com) eGRID Subregion Non-Baseload Plants
US Total is from Average Power Plants US AVE CAMX NWPP MROW RFCW RFCE 1443 1182 1636 2301 2242 1878

CO 2values from Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon 3% discount, 2015. http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/inforeg/technical-update-social-cost-of-carbon-for-regulator-impact-analysis.pdf 

## Installation Contractors **Emissions rates and externalities** 

## Region**New**

**England South** 

**Atlantic East** 

**South Central**  **West**

**South Central**  **Mountain**

**South** 1,399 1,859 2,157 1,566 1,508 147 147 147 147 147 37 37 37 37 37

NEWE SRVC SRTV ERCT AZNM 1399 1859 2157 1566 1508

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/inforeg/technical-update-social-cost-of-carbon-for-regulator-impact-analysis.pdf**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  electric heat: heat pump 24.0 333.3 n/a electric heat: electric furnace or baseboard -3.3 -41.7 n/a gas heat: condensing natural gas furnaces 79.3 -191.7 n/a

100.000 100.0 0.0

**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  water heating: electric 9.8 91.7 n/a water heating: gas -10.9 -91.7 n/a

**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  Number of Respondents 205 14 1
Number of total respondents is smaller than the sum of the respondents in the different regions because some repondents are in multiple regions. So, for example, if a respondent is in the Middle Atlantic Region and the South Atlantic Region they are counted as a respondent in both of those regions. This creates a bit of a problem because they only answer questions 12 and 13 once and their answers are then counted twice. 

## Heating: Percent Change of Affected Homes Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)

**Water Heating: Percent Changeof Affected Homes Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)**

**Number of Respondents All**  **Pacific Mountain**  **North** electric heat: heat pump 5.0 14.3 n/a electric heat: electric furnace or baseboard -0.7 -1.8 n/a gas heat: condensing natural gas furnaces 16.5 -8.2 0.0 gas heat: minimum efficiency furnace -21.1 -4.3 0.0 98.9 100.0 #VALUE! Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category

**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  water heating: electric 2.1 3.9 0.0 water heating: gas -2.3 -3.9 0.0
Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category**West North**

**Central East North** 

**Central Middle** 

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East South** 

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**
3.1 15.3 24.4 n/a 28.1 26.8 0.0 n/a 5.0 -12.8 -4.1 n/a -0.2 -17.9 0.0 n/a 92.0 97.4 79.7 n/a 72.1 91.0 100.0 n/a

100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0

**West North Central**  **East North**

**Central Middle** 

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East South** 

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**
39.0 -4.0 -3.8 n/a -7.3 23.4 -16.7 n/a -39.0 2.0 3.6 n/a 6.5 -30.4 16.7 n/a

**West North Central**  **East North**

**Central Middle** 

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East South** 

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**
34 67 25 6 53 27 7 1
Number of total respondents is smaller than the sum of the respondents in the different regions because some repondents are in multiple regions. So, for example, if a respondent is in the Middle Atlantic Region and the South Atlantic Region they are counted as a respondent in both of those regions. This creates a bit of a problem because they only answer questions 12 and 13 once and their answers are then 

## Builders **Heating: Percent Change of Affected Homes Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages) Region** 



## Builders **Water Heating: Percent Changeof Affected Homes Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages) Region** 



## Builders **Number of Respondents Region** 



## Builders**West North**

**Central East North** 

**Central Middle** 

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East South** 

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**
0.7 2.2 5.6 n/a 6.9 4.2 0.0 n/a 1.2 -1.9 -0.9 n/a -0.1 -2.8 0.0 n/a 21.9 14.2 18.2 0.0 17.6 14.4 21.4 0.0 -23.8 -14.9 -22.9 0.0 -24.6 -17.0 -21.4 0.0 100.0 98.0 99.8 #VALUE! 99.2 93.0 100.0 #VALUE!

**West North Central**  **East North**

**Central Middle** 

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East South** 

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**
9.3 -0.6 -0.9 0.0 -1.8 4.0 -3.6 0.0 -9.3 0.3 0.8 0.0 1.6 -5.2 3.6 0.0



### Region **Region**



## Builders**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  **West**

**North Central**  electric heat: heat pump 18.4 11.9 25.1 18.3 electric heat: electric furnace or baseboard 2.5 6.8 -0.1 14.7 gas heat: condensing natural gas furnaces 79.1 81.3 75.0 67.0

100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000

**All Pacific**  **Mountain**

**North West** 

**North Central**  water heating: electric 3.3 -6.9 0.0 10.2 water heating: gas -4.6 10.6 -6.3 -9.3

**All Pacific**  **Mountain**

**North West** 

**North Central**  Number of Respondents 589 33 30 80 

## Installation Contractors **Heating: Percent Change of Affected Homes Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)**

**Installation Contractors Water Heating: Percent Change of Affected Homes Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)** 

**Installation Contractors Number of Respondents** 

Number of total respondents is smaller than the sum of the respondents in the different regions because some repondents are in multiple regions. So, for example, if a respondent is in the Middle Atlantic Region and the South Atlantic Region they are counted as a respondent in both of those regions. This creates a bit of a problem because they only answer questions 37 and 38 once and their answers are then counted twice.



## Installation Contractors**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  **West**

**North Central**  electric heat: heat pump 6.0 3.6 7.4 4.3 electric heat: electric furnace or baseboard 0.8 2.1 0.0 3.5 gas heat: condensing natural gas furnaces 25.6 24.7 22.1 15.7 gas heat: minimum efficiency furnace -32.7 -29.3 -31.4 -23.3 98.7 103.6 93.7 100.8 Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category

**All Pacific**  **Mountain**

**North West** 

**North Central**  water heating: electric 1.1 -2.0 0.0 2.4 water heating: gas -1.5 3.1 -2.0 -2.2
Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category 

## Installation Contractors**East**

**North Central**  **Middle**

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East** 

**South Central**  **West**

**South Central**  **Mountain**

**South**
16.6 15.2 21.6 20.5 47.9 18.4 15.3 7.3 0.4 7.2 1.4 -0.1 -6.1 2.1 76.1 84.4 71.2 78.1 52.3 87.7 82.6

100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000

**East North**  **Central Middle** 

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East** 

**South Central**  **West**

**South Central**  **Mountain**

**South**
6.7 2.1 4.4 4.7 13.7 5.0 -3.1 -3.5 -2.0 -10.0 -6.6 -16.7 -6.3 -3.3

**East North**  **Central Middle** 

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East** 

**South Central**  **West**

**South Central**  **Mountain**

**South**
62 180 44 106 13 45 25 

## Installation Contractors **Heating: Percent Change of Affected Homes Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)** 

## Region

**Installation Contractors Water Heating: Percent Change of Affected Homes Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)**  **Region**

**Installation Contractors Number of Respondents**  **Region**

Number of total respondents is smaller than the sum of the respondents in the different regions because some repondents are in multiple regions. So, for example, if a respondent is in the Middle Atlantic Region and the South Atlantic Region they are counted as a respondent in both of those regions. This creates a bit of a problem because they only answer



## Installation Contractors**East**

**North Central**  **Middle**

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East** 

**South Central**  **West**

**South Central**  **Mountain**

**South**
4.4 4.3 6.0 8.5 19.9 7.6 8.6 1.9 0.1 2.0 0.6 -0.1 -2.5 1.2 20.2 24.0 19.6 32.4 21.7 36.3 46.4 -25.7 -28.5 -29.2 -42.3 -42.9 -41.9 -60.0 103.2 100.1 94.3 98.2 97.0 98.7 93.7

**East North**  **Central Middle** 

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East** 

**South Central**  **West**

**South Central**  **Mountain**

**South**
1.7 0.6 1.3 2.0 5.9 2.1 -1.8 -0.9 -0.6 -2.9 -2.8 -7.2 -2.6 -2.0 

## Region 

## Region

**Installation Contractors All**  **Pacific Mountain**  **North West North** 

**Central East North** 

**Central**
**Percentage that change from gas to electric heat**  4.4 12.5 0 1.9 0.5
**Pre-rule change electric heat**  11.3 9.6 0.0 6.8 5.5
**Pre-rule change condensing natural gas furnaces**  66.0 86.1 100.0 69.4 76.8

**Pre-rule change minimum efficiency furnaces**  21.1 4.3 0.0 23.8 14.9

**Unknown** 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 **Post-rule change electric heat**  15.6 22.1 0.0 8.7 5.9
**Post-rule change condensing natural gas**  **furnaces** 82.5 77.9 100.0 91.3 91.0

**Unknown** 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1

Estimate of Gas Heating from Question 7 53.4

Estimate of Current Condensing from Question 7 36.2

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

4.3 12.5 0.0 1.9 0.4
4.6 12.5 0.0 1.9 0.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

## Heating

**Builders All**  **Pacific Mountain**  **North West North** 

**Central East North** 

**Central Percentage that change**  **from gas to electric water heaters**  2.2 3.9 0 9.3 -0.4
**Pre-rule change electric water heater**  19.9 9.6 0.0 21.9 11.5 **Pre-rule change gas water heater**  78.4 90.4 100.0 78.0 85.6
**Unknown** 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 **Post-rule change electric water heater**  22.0 13.6 0.0 31.2 10.9 **Post-rule change natural gas water heater**  76.1 86.4 100.0 68.8 85.9
**Unknown** 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.1 3.9 0.0 9.3 -0.6 2.3 3.9 0.0 9.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  **West North**

**Central East North** 

**Central water heating: electric**  2.1 3.9 0.0 9.3 -0.6 **water heating: gas** -2.3 -3.9 0.0 -9.3 0.3

-0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3
Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category 

## Builders**Middle**

**Atlantic New England**  **South Atlantic**  **East South**

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**

4.7 0 6.9 2 0 0

5.8 0.0 12.7 24.4 28.6 0.0

70.2 100.0 60.8 55.9 50.0 100.0

22.9 0.0 24.6 17.0 21.4 0.0

1.2 0.0 1.9 2.6 0.0 0.0

10.4 0.0 19.5 25.9 28.6 0.0

88.4 100.0 78.4 70.3 71.4 100.0

1.2 0.0 2.1 3.8 0.0 0.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

4.6 0.0 6.8 1.4 0.0 0.0
4.7 0.0 7.0 2.6 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

### Region**Middle**

**Atlantic New England**  **South Atlantic**  **East South**

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**

-0.8 0 -1.7 4.6 -3.6 0

13.5 6.7 25.7 29.8 35.7 0.0

85.4 93.3 72.4 67.6 64.3 100.0
1.2 0.0 1.9 2.6 0.0 0.0
12.6 6.7 23.9 33.8 32.1 0.0

86.2 93.3 74.0 62.4 67.9 100.0
1.2 0.0 2.1 3.8 0.0 0.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 -0.9 0.0 -1.8 4.0 -3.6 0.0 -0.8 0.0 -1.6 5.2 -3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

**Middle Atlantic**  **New England South**  **Atlantic East South** 

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South** -0.9 0.0 -1.8 4.0 -3.6 0.0 0.8 0.0 1.6 -5.2 3.6 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.2 -1.2 0.0 0.0 

### Region

**Region All**  **Pacific Mountain**  **North West North** 

**Central**
**Pre-rule change percentage of electric heat with heat pump**  77.2 14.8 n/a 100.0
**Pre-rule change percentage of electric heat with electric furnace or baseboard**  22.8 85.2 n/a 0.0
**Post-rule change percentage of electric heat with heat pump**  87.9 71.0 n/a 86.5

**Post-rule change percentage of electric heat with electric furnace or baseboard**  12.1 29.0 n/a 13.5

**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  **West North**

**Central**
**Pre-rule change percentage of electric heat with heat pump**  8.7 1.4 n/a 6.8

**Pre-rule change percentage of electric heat with electric furnace or baseboard**  2.6 8.2 n/a 0.0

**Pre-rule change condensing natural gas furnaces**  66.0 86.1 100.0 69.4

**Pre-rule change minimum efficiency furnaces** 21.1 4.3 0.0 23.8

**Unknown** 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 **Post-rule change percentage of electric heat with heat pump**  13.7 15.7 n/a 7.5 **Post-rule change percentage of electric heat with electric furnace or baseboard**  1.9 6.4 n/a 1.2
**Post-rule change condensing natural gas furnaces**  82.5 77.9 100.0 91.3

**Unknown** 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 

## Heating: Electric heating types (percentages are percentage of electric only)

**Heating: Breakout by heating type (percentages are overall)**100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0**East North**

**Central Middle** 

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East South** 

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**

65.9 70.0 n/a 78.4 85.6 62.5 n/a

34.1 30.0 n/a 21.6 14.4 37.5 n/a

100.0 92.3 n/a 86.2 97.3 62.5 n/a

0.0 7.7 n/a 13.8 2.7 37.5 n/a

**East North Central**  **Middle**

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East South** 

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**

3.6 4.0 n/a 10.0 20.9 17.9 n/a

1.9 1.7 n/a 2.8 3.5 10.7 n/a

76.8 70.2 100.0 60.8 55.9 50.0 100.0

14.9 22.9 0.0 24.6 17.0 21.4 0.0

2.8 1.2 0.0 1.9 2.6 0.0 0.0
5.9 9.6 n/a 16.8 25.2 17.9 n/a

0.0 0.8 n/a 2.7 0.7 10.7 n/a

91.0 88.4 100.0 78.4 70.3 71.4 100.0

3.1 1.2 0.0 2.1 3.8 0.0 0.0 

## Heating: Electric heating types (percentages are percentage of electric only) 

## Region

**Heating: Breakout by heating type (percentages are overall)**


## Region100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  **West North**

**Central East North** 

**Central**

**electric heat: heat pump** 5.0 14.3 n/a 0.7 2.2

**electric heat: electric furnace or baseboard** -0.7 -1.8 n/a 1.2 -1.9

**gas heat: condensing natural gas furnaces** 16.5 -8.2 0.0 21.9 14.2

**gas heat: minimum efficiency furnace** -21.1 -4.3 0.0 -23.8 -14.9

-0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 

## Builders **Heating: Percent Change Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)**

Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category**Middle**

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East South** 

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**

5.6 n/a 6.9 4.2 0.0 n/a

-0.9 n/a -0.1 -2.8 0.0 n/a

18.2 0.0 17.6 14.4 21.4 0.0

-22.9 0.0 -24.6 -17.0 -21.4 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.2 -1.2 0.0 0.0 

## Heating: Percent Change Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)

**Region All**  **Pacific Mountain**  **North West North** 

**Central East North** 

**Central**
**Percentage that change from gas to electric heat**  7 5.1 8.4 7.7 5.9

**Pre-rule change electric heat** 11.3 11.5 6.1 8.6 9.5

**Pre-rule change condensing natural gas furnaces**  51.3 47.0 55.9 65.1 62.2

**Pre-rule change minimum efficiency furnaces**  32.7 29.3 31.4 23.3 25.7

**Unknown** 4.6 12.3 6.7 3.0 2.7

**Post-rule change electric heat** 18.1 17.1 13.4 16.4 15.8
**Post-rule change condensing natural gas furnaces**  76.9 71.7 77.9 80.8 82.4

**Unknown** 5.0 11.2 8.6 2.8 1.8

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

6.8 5.7 7.4 7.8 6.3

7.2 4.6 9.3 7.6 5.5

0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 

## Heating**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  **West North**

**Central East North** 

**Central**
**Percentage that change from gas to electric heat**  1.3 -2.6 1 2.3 1.3 **Pre-rule change electric water heater**  12.3 11.4 3.1 9.9 11.7
**Pre-rule change gas water heater** 83.1 76.3 90.3 87.1 85.7

**Unknown** 4.6 12.3 6.7 3.0 2.7 **Post-rule change electric water heater**  13.4 9.4 3.1 12.2 13.4 **Post-rule change natural gas water heater**  81.6 79.4 88.3 85.0 84.8
**Unknown** 5.0 11.2 8.6 2.8 1.8

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.1 -2.0 0.0 2.4 1.7 1.5 -3.1 2.0 2.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  **West North**

**Central East North** 

**Central water heating: electric**  1.1 -2.0 0.0 2.4 1.7 **water heating: gas** -1.5 3.1 -2.0 -2.2 -0.9

-0.4 1.1 -2.0 0.2 0.8 

## Water Heating

**Installation Contractors Water Heating: Percent Change Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)** **Middle**

**Atlantic New England**  **South Atlantic**  **East South**

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**

4.4 8.8 9.5 20.5 5.4 11.7

7.3 6.8 19.3 22.9 18.0 14.8

59.9 59.5 33.6 32.5 33.5 20.6

28.5 29.2 42.3 42.9 41.9 60.0

4.3 4.5 4.8 1.8 6.6 4.6

11.8 14.7 28.4 42.7 23.1 24.6

83.9 79.1 66.0 54.2 69.8 67.0

4.3 6.2 5.6 3.1 7.1 8.4

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

4.5 7.9 9.1 19.8 5.1 9.8

4.4 9.6 9.9 21.1 5.6 13.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

## Region**Middle**

**Atlantic New England**  **South Atlantic**  **East South**

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**

0.6 2.1 2.4 6.5 2.4 0.1

8.7 10.0 20.0 31.4 18.4 10.8

87.0 85.5 75.2 66.8 75.0 84.6

4.3 4.5 4.8 1.8 6.6 4.6

9.3 11.3 22.0 37.3 20.5 9.0

86.4 82.5 72.4 59.6 72.4 82.6
4.3 6.2 5.6 3.1 7.1 8.4

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.6 1.3 2.0 5.9 2.1 -1.8 0.6 2.9 2.8 7.2 2.6 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

**Middle Atlantic**  **New England South**  **Atlantic East South** 

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South** 0.6 1.3 2.0 5.9 2.1 -1.8 -0.6 -2.9 -2.8 -7.2 -2.6 -2.0

0.0 -1.7 -0.8 -1.3 -0.5 -3.8 

## Water Heating

**Installation Contractors Water Heating: Percent Change Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)**  **Region Region** **All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  **West North**

**Central East North** 

**Central**
**Pre-rule change percentage of electric heat with heat pump**  78.2 87.3 78.0 87.4 76.2
**Pre-rule change percentage of electric heat with electric furnace or**  **baseboard** 21.8 12.7 22.0 12.6 23.8

**Post-rule change percentage of electric heat with heat pump**  81.9 79.5 90.3 72.3 73.5

**Post-rule change percentage of electric heat with electric furnace or**  **baseboard** 18.1 20.5 9.7 27.7 26.5

**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  **West North**

**Central East North** 

**Central Pre-rule change percentage of**  **electric heat with heat pump** 8.9 10.0 4.7 7.6 7.2 **Pre-rule change percentage of electric heat with electric furnace or**  **baseboard** 2.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 2.3

**Pre-rule change condensing natural gas furnaces**  51.3 47.0 55.9 65.1 62.2

**Pre-rule change minimum efficiency furnaces**  32.7 29.3 31.4 23.3 25.7

**Unknown** 4.6 12.3 6.7 3.0 2.7 **Post-rule change percentage of electric heat with heat pump**  14.8 13.6 12.1 11.9 11.6
**Post-rule change percentage of electric heat with electric furnace or**  **baseboard** 3.3 3.5 1.3 4.5 4.2 

## Heating: Electric heating types (percentages are percentage of electric only)

**Heating: Breakout by heating type (percentages are overall) Post-rule change condensing natural** 

**gas furnaces** 76.9 71.7 77.9 80.8 82.4

**Unknown** 5.0 11.2 8.6 2.8 1.8

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0**Middle**

**Atlantic New** 

**England South** 

**Atlantic East South** 

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**

71.3 65.7 85.0 81.3 64.9 90.5

28.7 34.3 15.0 18.8 35.1 9.5

81.1 70.7 87.7 90.1 83.5 89.4

18.9 29.3 12.3 9.9 16.5 10.6

**Middle Atlantic**  **New**

**England South** 

**Atlantic East South** 

**Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**

5.2 4.5 16.4 18.6 11.7 13.4

2.1 2.3 2.9 4.3 6.3 1.4

59.9 59.5 33.6 32.5 33.5 20.6

28.5 29.2 42.3 42.9 41.9 60.0

4.3 4.5 4.8 1.8 6.6 4.6

9.6 10.4 24.9 38.5 19.3 22.0

2.2 4.3 3.5 4.2 3.8 2.6 

## Heating: Electric heating types (percentages are percentage of electric only) 

## Region

**Heating: Breakout by heating type (percentages are overall)** 

## Region83.9 79.1 66.0 54.2 69.8 67.0

4.3 6.2 5.6 3.1 7.1 8.4

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0**All Pacific**  **Mountain North**  **West North**

**Central**

**electric heat: heat pump** 6.0 3.6 7.4 4.3

**electric heat: electric furnace or baseboard**  0.8 2.1 0.0 3.5

**gas heat: condensing natural gas furnaces**  25.6 24.7 22.1 15.7

**gas heat: minimum efficiency furnace**  -32.7 -29.3 -31.4 -23.3

-0.4 1.1 -2.0 0.2 

## Installation Contractors **Heating: Percent Change Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)**

Columns do not exactly sum to zero because of the "other combinations" category**East North**

**Central Middle** 

**Atlantic New England**  **South Atlantic East South**  **Central West South** 

**Central Mountain** 

**South**

4.4 4.3 6.0 8.5 19.9 7.6 8.6

1.9 0.1 2.0 0.6 -0.1 -2.5 1.2

20.2 24.0 19.6 32.4 21.7 36.3 46.4

-25.7 -28.5 -29.2 -42.3 -42.9 -41.9 -60.0

0.8 0.0 -1.7 -0.8 -1.3 -0.5 -3.8 

## Installation Contractors **Heating: Percent Change Due to Rule Change (post - pre rule change percentages)** 

## Region21

8 30 35

19

14 29

23 46

15 21 21
18 27 33

23

16 30

22 48

13 20

4

-9 3 10

5 2 7 6 15

6

0 33 29 31

23 26 28 29 42 43 42 60

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70



### -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60%ofhomesaffectedbypotentialstandardchange%ofaffectedhomeschanging(ifstandardchangesfromcondensingtononcondensing 

## Fuel Switching as a Percentage of Affected Homes

- Installation Contractors

when standard goes from non

-condensing to condensing

Went from all gas to not all gas Went from gas heat to electric heat Went from gas water heating to electric water heating
Percent of Homes AffectedType of Respondent: Home Builder
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Homes Built: ALL
Respondents: 256 

## Home Builders (9, 10, 12, 13)

0% 1-5% Number 175 13 Percent 68.4 5.1

0% 1-5% Number 149 18 Percent 58.2 7.0

Heating: minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating: electric

heat pump; Water heating: natural gas

17.2 57.4 3.2

Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating: electric

heat pump; Water heating: natural gas

68.9 7.0 Question 9 Type of Respondent: Home BuilderState of Respondent: ALLCensus Region: ALL Number of Homes Built: ALL Respondents: 256 Of the homes you completed in the past year with minimum efficiency (non-condensing) furnaces, what percent had electric water heaters?

Question 10 Type of Respondent: Home Builder
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Homes Built: ALL Of the homes you completed in the past year with high efficiency (condensing) furnaces, what percent had electric water heaters?

Question 12 Type of Respondent: Home Builder
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Homes Built: ALL Respondents: 205 If natural gas is available in the area and the Federal min. efficiency requirement for natural gas furnaces is the same as it is today. What % of your new home installations would be in each of the following categories?

Question 13 Type of Respondent: Home Builder
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Homes Built: ALL Respondents: 206 If natural gas is currently available in the area and the Federal min. eff. requirement has changed to high eff. (condensing) furnaces. What % of your new home installations would be in each of the following categories?

Change in responses if federal minimum efficiency requirement changes to high efficiency (condensing) furnacesHeating: minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating: electric

heat pump; Water heating: natural gas

-17.2 11.4 3.8
Fuel Switching
Went from gas heat to electric heat Went from gas water heating to electric water heating 8.9 4.4
All States (regardless of selection)

Location Respondents Heating: minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas ALL 205 17.2 Pacific 14 4.3 Mountain North 1 0.0 West North Central 34 17.6 East North Central 67 14.9 Middle Atlantic 26 22.5 New England 6 0.0 South Atlantic 53 18.4 East South Central 27 9.6 West South Central 7 14.3 Mountain South 1 0.0

AK 0 AL 11 17.7 AR 4 0.0 AZ 0 CA 1 0.0 CO 0 CT 0 DC 0 Type of Respondent: Home Builder
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Homes Built: ALL Respondents: 205

Question 12 Type of Respondent: Home Builder
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Homes Built: ALL Respondents: 205 Natural gas is available in the area and the Federal min. efficiency requirement for natural gas furnaces is the same as it is today. What % of your new home installations would be in each of the following categories?

Census RegionDE 1 0.0 FL 2 75.0 GA 36 14.3 HI 0 IA 0 ID 0 IL 25 20.6 IN 17 4.4 KS 0 KY 4 8.8 LA 0 MA 2 0.0 MD 1 0.0 ME 0 MI 7 14.3 MN 10 0.5 MO 14 37.5 MS 2 10.0 MT 0 NC 5 22.0 ND 0 NE 11 10.9 NH 0 NJ 12 35.0 NM 0 NV 0 NY 0 OH 12 17.3 OK 0 OR 8 7.5 PA 5 33.0 RI 0 SC 1 100.0 SD 0 TN 4 2.5 TX 2 50.0 UT 0 VA 5 20.0 VT 0 WA 3 0.0 WI 0 WV 0 WY 0 StatesLocation Respondents

ALL 206 0 Pacific 14 Mountain North 1 West North Central 34 East North Central 67 Middle Atlantic 25 New England 6 South Atlantic 53 East South Central 29 West South Central 7 Mountain South 1 AK 0 AL 13 AR 4 AZ 0 CA 1 CO 0 CT 0 DC 0 DE 1 FL 2 GA 36 HI 0 IA 0 ID 0 IL 25 IN 17 KS 0 KY 4 LA 0 MA 2 MD 1 ME 0 MI 7 MN 10 MO 14 MS 2 MT 0 Question 13 Type of Respondent: Home Builder
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Homes Built: ALL Respondents: 206 If natural gas is currently available in the area and the Federal min. eff. requirement has changed to high eff. (condensing) furnaces. What % of your new home installations would be in each of the following categories?

Census Region

StatesNC 5 ND 0 NE 11 NH 0 NJ 11 NM 0 NV 0 NY 0 OH 12 OK 0 OR 8 PA 5 RI 0 SC 1 SD 0 TN 4 TX 2 UT 0 VA 5 VT 0 WA 3 WI 0 WV 0 WY 0

Location Respondents Heating: minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas ALL 205 -17.2 Pacific 14 -4.3 Mountain North 1 0.0

West North Central 34 -17.6 Type of Respondent: Home Builder
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Homes Built: ALL Respondents: 205 Change in Percent of Installs if Minimum Standard Becomes CondensingEast North Central 67 -14.9 Middle Atlantic 25 -22.5 New England 6 0.0 South Atlantic 53 -18.4 East South Central 27 -9.6

West South Central 7 -14.3 Mountain South 1 0.0 AK 0 n/a AL 11 -17.7 AR 4 0.0 AZ 0 n/a CA 1 0.0 CO 0 n/a CT 0 n/a DC 0 n/a DE 1 0.0 FL 2 -75.0 GA 36 -14.3 HI 0 n/a IA 0 n/a ID 0 n/a IL 25 -20.6 IN 17 -4.4 KS 0 n/a KY 4 -8.8 LA 0 n/a MA 2 0.0 MD 1 0.0 ME 0 n/a MI 7 -14.3 MN 10 -0.5 MO 14 -37.5 MS 2 -10.0 MT 0 n/a NC 5 -22.0 ND 0 n/a NE 11 -10.9 NH 0 n/a NJ 11 -35.0 NM 0 n/a NV 0 n/a NY 0 n/a OH 12 -17.3 OK 0 n/a OR 8 -7.5 PA 5 -33.0 Census Region

StatesRI 0 n/a SC 1 -100.0 SD 0 n/a TN 4 -2.5 TX 2 -50.0 UT 0 n/a VA 5 -20.0 VT 0 n/a WA 3 0.0 WI 0 n/a WV 0 n/a WY 0 n/a

Type of Respondent: Home Builder
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Homes Built: ALL Respondents: 205 Location Respondents Went from all gas to not all gas

ALL 205 5.8 Pacific 14 12.5 Mountain North 1 0.0 West North Central 34 9.0 East North Central 67 0.8 Middle Atlantic 25 3.0 New England 6 0.0 South Atlantic 53 5.2 East South Central 27 7.5 West South Central 7 -3.6 Mountain South 1 0.0 AK 0 n/a AL 11 7.0 AR 4 -6.3 AZ 0 n/a CA 1 0.0 CO 0 n/a CT 0 n/a DC 0 n/a DE 1 0.0 FL 2 0.0 GA 36 5.5 Fuel Switching BuidlersHI 0 n/a IA 0 n/a ID 0 n/a IL 25 -1.6 IN 17 6.2 KS 0 n/a KY 4 2.5 LA 0 n/a MA 2 0.0 MD 1 -25.0 ME 0 n/a MI 7 -1.4 MN 10 1.1 MO 14 18.9 MS 2 5.0 MT 0 n/a NC 5 5.0 ND 0 n/a NE 11 2.6 NH 0 n/a NJ 11 6.7 NM 0 n/a NV 0 n/a NY 0 n/a OH 12 0.0 OK 0 n/a OR 8 25.0 PA 5 4.0 RI 0 n/a SC 1 0.0 SD 0 n/a TN 4 21.3 TX 2 0.0 UT 0 n/a VA 5 20.0 VT 0 n/a WA 3 0.0 WI 0 n/a WV 0 n/a WY 0 n/aLocation ALL Pacific Respondents 205 14 Heating: minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas 17.2 4.3
Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas 57.4 86.1 Heating: electric heat pump; Water heating: natural gas 3.2 0.0 Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas 0.6 0.0
Heating: minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: electric 3.9 0.0

Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric 8.5 0.0 Heating: electric heat pump; Water heating: electric 5.5 1.4
Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric 2.0 8.2 Other combinations 1.7 0.0 Question 12

Natural gas is available in the area and the Federal min. efficiency requirement for natural gas furnaces is the same as it is today. What % of your new home installations would be in each of the following categories?Location ALL Pacific Respondents 206 14 0
Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas 68.9 77.9 Heating: electric heat pump; Water heating: natural gas 7.0 8.6 Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas 0.3 0.0 0.0

Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric 13.7 0.0 Heating: electric heat pump; Water heating: electric 6.7 7.1
Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric 1.6 6.4 Other combinations 1.9 0.0 If natural gas is currently available in the area and the Federal min. eff. requirement has changed to high eff. (condensing) furnaces. What % of your new home installations would be in each of the following categories? Question 13Question 37 Type of Respondent: Installing Contractor
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Gas Furnaces Installed: ALL
Installs in New Construction: ALL
Performs Replacements in Existing Homes: ALL Respondents: 599

Location ALL Pacific Respondents 599 33 Heating: minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas 30.4 26.2
Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas 48.1 44.5 Heating: electric heat pump; Water heating: natural gas 3.4 4.8 Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas 1.2 0.7
Heating: minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: electric 2.4 3.0

Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric 3.2 2.5Heating: electric heat pump; Water heating: electric 5.5 5.2
Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric 1.3 0.7 Other combinations 4.6 12.3

Location ALL Pacific Respondents 589 33

Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas 71.8 68.4 Heating: electric heat pump; Water heating: natural gas 8.1 8.5 Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas 1.8 2.5

Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric 5.1 3.3 Heating: electric heat pump; Water heating: electric 6.8 5.1
Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric 1.5 1.0 Other combinations 5.0 11.2 If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement remains as it is today for gas furnaces. What percentage of your replacements would be:

Question 38

If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement has changed to high-efficiency gas furnaces. What percentage of your replacements would be:

## Home Builders (9, 10, 12, 13)

6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80%

7 3 9 9 6 4 2.7 1.2 3.5 3.5 2.3 1.6

6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80%

7 3 6 10 13 7 2.7 1.2 2.3 3.9 5.1 2.7

Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating: high

efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric Other

combinations

0.6 3.9 8.5 5.5 2.0 1.7

Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric Other

combinations

0.3 13.7 6.7 1.6 1.9 Of the homes you completed in the past year with minimum efficiency (non-condensing) furnaces, what percent had electric water heaters?

Of the homes you completed in the past year with high efficiency (condensing) furnaces, what percent had electric water heaters?

If natural gas is available in the area and the Federal min. efficiency requirement for natural gas furnaces is the same as it is today. What % of your new home

If natural gas is currently available in the area and the Federal min. eff. requirement has changed to high eff. (condensing) furnaces. What % of your new home

Change in responses if federal minimum efficiency requirement changes to high efficiency (condensing) furnacesHeating: electric

furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating: high

efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric Other

combinations

-0.3 -3.9 5.1 1.2 -0.4 0.2

Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating: high

efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: electric 57.4 3.2 0.6 3.9 8.5 5.5 86.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.9 5.4 0.0 6.1 14.5 1.4 69.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 2.6 62.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 8.1 3.7 93.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0 49.4 4.6 0.0 6.2 11.3 5.4 49.4 5.4 3.1 7.4 6.5 15.6 46.4 0.0 3.6 7.1 3.6 17.9 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

30.5 12.3 0.0 8.2 1.8 29.5 50.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 6.3 31.3

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Natural gas is available in the area and the Federal min. efficiency requirement for natural gas furnaces is the same as it is today. What % of your new home installations would be in each of the100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.2 6.3 0.0 8.8 12.3 6.6

73.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.6 68.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.6 7.1

27.5 2.5 21.3 2.5 15.0 15.0

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 25.0

61.4 8.6 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.7 65.3 1.0 0.0 16.8 14.4 2.0 31.4 11.4 0.0 2.9 16.4 0.4 90.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

27.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 22.0 20.0

75.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 10.7 1.9

55.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.0

63.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.2

91.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 51.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

68.8 0.0 0.0 25.0 1.3 2.5 12.5 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

57.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 1.0

66.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3Heating: high

efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: electric 68.9 7.0 0.3 0.0 13.7 6.7 77.9 8.6 0.0 0.0 7.1 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.6 5.1 0.0 27.6 2.4 83.8 2.2 0.0 7.2 3.7 81.6 4.2 0.4 6.8 5.4 93.3 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0 62.6 11.2 0.2 15.7 5.7 51.6 10.5 0.3 18.8 14.7 64.3 0.0 3.6 7.1 17.9 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

41.2 16.2 0.0 16.5 26.2 56.3 0.0 0.0 12.5 31.3

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.9 10.6 0.3 22.1 5.9

96.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 66.8 4.7 0.0 17.4 7.1

33.8 21.3 2.5 15.0 15.0

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0

77.1 7.9 0.0 15.0 0.0 64.7 1.0 0.0 32.3 2.0 50.0 10.7 0.0 33.6 2.9 95.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 If natural gas is currently available in the area and the Federal min. eff. requirement has changed to high eff. (condensing) furnaces. What % of your new home installations would be in each of44.0 26.0 0.0 12.0 16.0

83.3 1.4 0.0 13.4 1.9

84.1 6.8 0.0 0.0 9.1

81.1 0.8 0.0 4.6 8.5

73.8 15.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 80.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 6.0

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

50.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 62.5 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0

57.0 20.0 0.0 6.0 1.0

66.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3

Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating: high

efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: electric 11.4 3.8 -0.3 -3.9 5.1 1.2 -8.2 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.7 -0.3 0.0 -6.1 13.2 1.0 Change in Percent of Installs if Minimum Standard Becomes Condensing14.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1

19.5 3.8 0.0 -0.4 -1.3 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2 6.6 0.2 -6.2 4.4 0.3 2.1 5.1 -2.8 -7.4 12.3 -0.9

17.9 0.0 0.0 -7.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 10.7 3.9 0.0 -8.2 14.7 -3.4 6.3 0.0 0.0 -12.5 6.3 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 4.3 0.3 -8.8 9.8 -0.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 22.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 -0.8 -1.8 4.7 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 6.3 18.8 -18.8 -2.5 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0 -20.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 15.7 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -16.8 17.9 0.0 18.6 -0.7 0.0 -2.9 17.1 2.5 5.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 17.0 23.0 0.0 -2.0 -10.0 -4.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 28.3 6.8 0.0 0.0 -9.2 9.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -17.5 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 29.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 4.0n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -18.8 0.0 0.0 -25.0 48.8 -2.5 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Went from gas heat to electric heat Went from gas

water heating to electric water heating

4.4 2.2 12.5 3.9 0.0 0.0 1.9 9.3 0.5 -0.4 4.7 -0.8 0.0 0.0 6.9 -1.7 2.0 4.6 0.0 -3.6 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 0.5 3.1 0.0 -6.3 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 1.1n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a -0.8 -1.6 3.8 0.9 n/a n/a 2.5 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -25.0 n/a n/a -1.4 -0.7 0.0 1.1 4.6 19.6 5.0 0.0 n/a n/a 16.0 -19.0 n/a n/a 0.0 2.6 n/a n/a 15.9 -0.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 25.0 10.0 5.0 3.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a -2.5 21.3 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 20.0 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aMountain North West North Central East North

Central Middle Atlantic New England South Atlantic 1 34 67 26 6 53

0.0 17.6 14.9 22.5 0.0 18.4

100.0 54.9 69.7 62.1 93.3 49.4

0.0 5.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0

0.0 6.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 6.2

0.0 14.5 7.1 8.1 6.7 11.3

0.0 1.4 2.6 3.7 0.0 5.4

0.0 0.0 1.9 1.3 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 2.8 1.2 0.0 1.9 Census RegionMountain North West North Central East North

Central Middle Atlantic New England South Atlantic 1 34 67 25 6 53

100.0 63.6 83.8 81.6 93.3 62.6

0.0 5.1 2.2 4.2 0.0 11.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.2

0.0 27.6 7.2 6.8 6.7 15.7

0.0 2.4 3.7 5.4 0.0 5.7

0.0 1.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 3.1 1.2 0.0 2.1 Census RegionMountain North West North Central East North

Central Middle Atlantic New England South Atlantic 30 80 64 180 46 108

30.4 21.6 23.5 26.3 25.0 39.4

54.9 61.4 58.3 57.2 57.0 30.2

4.1 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.3 4.3

0.9 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3

1.0 1.6 2.3 2.2 4.2 2.9

1.0 3.6 3.9 2.7 2.4 3.3 Census Region0.7 3.9 4.2 2.7 2.2 12.1

0.4 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.6 6.7 3.0 2.7 4.3 4.5 4.8

Mountain North West North

Central East North

Central Middle Atlantic New England South Atlantic 30 80 62 180 44 106

75.8 75.0 76.7 79.5 73.5 60.1

11.4 7.5 5.6 5.7 7.0 10.8

1.1 2.4 2.4 1.2 2.0 1.5

2.2 5.7 5.6 4.5 5.6 5.9

0.7 4.3 6.0 3.9 3.4 14.0

0.2 2.2 1.8 1.0 2.3 2.0 8.6 2.8 1.8 4.3 6.2 5.6 Census Region81-99% 100%

13 17 5.1 6.6

81-99% 100%

17 26 6.6 10.2Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric Other

combinations 2.0 1.7 100 8.2 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 1.9 2.8 100 1.3 1.2 100 0.0 0.0 100 2.7 1.9 100 0.4 2.6 100 7.1 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0 0 0 Natural gas is available in the area and the Federal min. efficiency requirement for natural gas furnaces is the same as it is today. What % of your new home installations would be in each of the0.0 0.0 100

0.0 0.0 100 0.6 3.1 100 0 0 0 0.0 3.2 100 1.5 2.9 100 0 2.5 5.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0 4.0 0.0 100 0 0.0 0.1 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0 0 0 8.3 5.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 2.0 4.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 25.0 0.0 100 0 16.0 0.0 100 0 30.0 0.0 100 0 0 0Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric Other

combinations 1.6 1.9 100 6.4 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 1.2 0.0 100 0.0 3.1 100 0.4 1.2 100 0.0 0.0 100 2.5 2.1 100 0.3 3.8 100 7.1 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 1.4 2.8 100 0 0 0 0.0 3.2 100 0.0 4.1 100 0 2.5 10.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 2.9 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0 If natural gas is currently available in the area and the Federal min. eff. requirement has changed to high eff. (condensing) furnaces. What % of your new home installations would be in each of0.0 2.0 100 0 0.0 0.1 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0 0 0 0.0 5.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 2.0 6.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 25.0 0.0 100 0 16.0 0.0 100 0 30.0 0.0 100 0 0 0

Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric Other

combinations -0.4 0.2 -1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.2 0.0-1.9 0.3

-0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 -0.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 -1.5 1.2 n/a n/a 0.0 5.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a -4.0 2.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -8.3 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0n/a n/a

0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aEast South

Central West South

Central Mountain

South AK 27 7 1 0

9.6 14.3 0.0

49.4 46.4 100.0

5.4 0.0 0.0

3.1 3.6 0.0

7.4 7.1 0.0

6.5 3.6 0.0

15.6 17.9 0.0

0.4 7.1 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0East South

Central West South

Central Mountain

South AK 29 7 1 0

51.6 64.3 100.0

10.5 0.0 0.0

0.3 3.6 0.0

18.8 7.1 0.0

14.7 17.9 0.0

0.3 7.1 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0East South

Central West South

Central Mountain

South AK 14 49 25 0

38.2 39.1 59.6

23.9 28.4 19.2

3.9 4.4 4.6

0.7 3.1 1.2

4.6 2.8 0.4

8.6 5.1 1.414.6 7.2 8.8

3.6 3.3 0.2 1.8 6.6 4.6

East South Central West South

Central Mountain

South AK 13 45 25 0

42.3 61.3 66.0

16.5 8.9 14.6

0.8 2.1 2.0

11.9 8.5 1.0

21.9 10.4 7.4

3.5 1.7 0.6 3.1 7.1 8.4

## Installation Contractors (32, 34, 37, 38)

0% 1-5% Number 532 106 Percent 76.5 15.3

0% 1-5% Number 481 131 Percent 69.6 19.0

Heating: minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating: high

efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating: electric

heat pump; Water heating: natural gas 30.4 48.1 3.4

Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating: electric

heat pump; Water heating: natural gas 71.8 8.1 Question 32 Type of Respondent: Installing Contractor
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Gas Furnaces Installed: ALL
Installs in New Construcon: When you replace a minimum efficiency (non-condensing) furnace with a high efficiency (condensing) furnace, how often do you replace the gas water heater with an electric water heater?

Question 34 Type of Respondent: Installing Contractor
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Gas Furnaces Installed: ALL
Installs in New Construcon: When your company replaces a minimum efficiency (non-condensing) furnace, how often do you replace the gas furnace with electric heating?

Question 37 Type of Respondent: Installing Contractor
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Gas Furnaces Installed: ALL
Installs in New Construcon: ALL
Performs Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL Respondents: 599 If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement remains as it is today for gas furnaces. What percentage of your replacements would be:

Question 38 Type of Respondent: Installing Contractor
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Gas Furnaces Installed: ALL
Installs in New Construcon: ALL
Performs Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL Respondents: 589 If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement has changed to high-efficiency gas furnaces. What percentage of your replacements would be:

Change in responses if federal minimum efficiency requirement changes to high efficiency (condensing) furnacesType of Respondent: Installing Contractor
State of

Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Gas Furnaces Installed: ALL
Installs in New Construcon: ALL
Performs Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL Respondents: 589 Heating: minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating: high

efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating: electric

heat pump; Water heating: natural gas -30.4 23.6 4.7
Fuel Switching
Went from gas heat to electric heat Went from gas

water heating to electric water heating 13.9 2.6

Question 37 Type of Respondent: Installing Contractor
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Gas Furnaces Installed: ALL
Installs in New Construcon: ALL
Performs Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL Respondents: 599 Location Respondents Heating: minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas ALL 599 30.4 Pacific 33 26.2 Mountain North 30 30.4 West North Central 80 21.6 East North Central 64 23.5 Middle Atlantic 180 26.3 New England 46 25.0 South Atlantic 108 39.4 East South Central 14 38.2 West South Central 49 39.1 Mountain South 25 59.6 AK 0 AL 3 53.3 AR 31 33.6 AZ 12 75.0 CA 6 41.3 CO 0 CT 2 55.0 DC 0 If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement remains as it is today for gas furnaces. What percentage of your replacements would be:

Census RegionDE 0 FL 0 GA 35 50.6 HI 0 IA 1 0.0 ID 0 IL 0 IN 9 15.6 KS 0 KY 1 10.0 LA 2 50.0 MA 17 15.7 MD 26 35.0 ME 0 MI 12 10.6 MN 47 11.1 MO 10 56.9 MS 1 20.0 MT 0 NC 7 30.0 ND 0 NE 18 29.1 NH 0 NJ 171 28.8 NM 0 NV 19 44.6 NY 1 0.0 OH 33 24.2 OK 13 39.6 OR 19 14.6 PA 25 13.0 RI 1 40.0 SC 1 10.0 SD 0 TN 2 40.0 TX 4 63.8 UT 24 29.9 VA 42 40.2 VT 0 WA 3 32.3 WI 1 0.0 WV 0 WY 0 StateLocation Respondents

ALL 589 Pacific 33 Mountain North 30 West North Central 80 East North Central 62 Middle Atlantic 180 New England 44 South Atlantic 106 East South Central 13 West South Central 45 Mountain South 25 AK 0 AL 3 AR 30 AZ 12 CA 6 CO 0 CT 2 DC 0 DE 0 FL 0 GA 35 HI 0 IA 1 ID 0 IL 0 IN 8 KS 0 KY 1 LA 2 MA 17 MD 26 ME 0 MI 12 MN 47 MO 10 MS 1 MT 0 Question 38 Type of Respondent: Installing Contractor
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Gas Furnaces Installed: ALL
Installs in New Construcon: ALL
Performs Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL

Respondents: 589 If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement has changed to high-efficiency gas furnaces. What percentage of your replacements would be:

Census Region

StateNC 7 ND 0 NE 18 NH 0 NJ 170 NM 0 NV 19 NY 1 OH 33 OK 12 OR 18 PA 25 RI 1 SC 1 SD 0 TN 2 TX 3 UT 24 VA 38 VT 0 WA 3 WI 1 WV 0 WY 0

Location Respondents Heating: minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas ALL 589 -30.4 Pacific 33 -26.2 Mountain North 30 -30.4

West North Central 80 -21.6 Type of Respondent: Installing Contractor
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Gas Furnaces Installed: ALL
Installs in New Construcon: ALL
Performs Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL

Respondents: 589 Change in Percent of Installs if Minimum Standard Becomes CondensingEast North Central 62 -23.5 Middle Atlantic 180 -26.3 New England 44 -25.0 South Atlantic 106 -39.4 East South Central 13 -38.2

West South Central 45 -39.1 Mountain South 25 -59.6 AK 0 n/a AL 3 -53.3 AR 30 -33.6 AZ 12 -75.0 CA 6 -41.3 CO 0 n/a CT 2 -55.0 DC 0 n/a DE 0 n/a FL 0 n/a GA 35 -50.6 HI 0 n/a IA 1 0.0 ID 0 n/a IL 0 n/a IN 8 -15.6 KS 0 n/a KY 1 -10.0 LA 2 -50.0 MA 17 -15.7 MD 26 -35.0 ME 0 n/a MI 12 -10.6 MN 47 -11.1 MO 10 -56.9 MS 1 -20.0 MT 0 n/a NC 7 -30.0 ND 0 n/a NE 18 -29.1 NH 0 n/a NJ 170 -28.8 NM 0 n/a NV 19 -44.6 NY 1 0.0 OH 33 -24.2 OK 12 -39.6 OR 18 -14.6 PA 25 -13.0 Census Region

StatesRI 1 -40.0 SC 1 -10.0 SD 0 n/a TN 2 -40.0 TX 3 -63.8 UT 24 -29.9 VA 38 -40.2 VT 0 n/a WA 3 -32.3 WI 1 0.0 WV 0 n/a WY 0 n/a

Type of Respondent: Installing Contractor
State of Respondent: ALL
Census Region: ALL
Number of Gas Furnaces Installed: ALL
Installs in New Construcon: ALL
Performs Replacements in Exisng Homes: ALL Respondents: 589 Location Respondents Went from all gas to not all gas

ALL 589 6.8 Pacific 33 2.4 Mountain North 30 9.5 West North Central 80 8.0 East North Central 62 5.0 Middle Atlantic 180 4.0 New England 44 8.5 South Atlantic 106 9.5 East South Central 13 19.8 West South Central 45 6.2 Mountain South 25 12.8 AK 0 n/a AL 3 41.7 AR 30 7.4 AZ 12 10.0 CA 6 -11.7 CO 0 n/a CT 2 15.0 DC 0 n/a DE 0 n/a FL 0 n/a GA 35 13.2 Fuel Switching ContractorsHI 0 n/a IA 1 0.0 ID 0 n/a IL 0 n/a IN 8 2.8 KS 0 n/a KY 1 0.0 LA 2 5.0 MA 17 7.1 MD 26 11.4 ME 0 n/a MI 12 -0.5 MN 47 3.5 MO 10 28.9 MS 1 5.0 MT 0 n/a NC 7 7.1 ND 0 n/a NE 18 9.4 NH 0 n/a NJ 170 4.7 NM 0 n/a NV 19 11.5 NY 1 0.0 OH 33 4.9 OK 12 8.1 OR 18 3.2 PA 25 2.2 RI 1 50.0 SC 1 -20.0 SD 0 n/a TN 2 10.0 TX 3 -10.0 UT 24 10.1 VA 38 9.0 VT 0 n/a WA 3 20.0 WI 1 0.0 WV 0 n/a WY 0 n/aAL AR AZ CA 11 4 0 1

17.7 0.0 0.0

30.5 50.0 100.0

12.3 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

8.2 12.5 0.0

1.8 6.3 0.0

29.5 31.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0AL AR AZ CA 13 4 0 1

41.2 56.3 100.0

16.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

16.5 12.5 0.0

26.2 31.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0AL AR AZ CA 3 31 12 6

53.3 33.6 75.0 41.3

5.0 29.4 7.5 14.2

6.7 5.5 2.5 3.0

3.3 1.1 0.0 3.7

8.3 3.0 0.0 0.8

5.0 6.9 0.0 0.810.0 9.5 15.0 1.2

3.3 3.9 0.0 1.7 5.0 7.1 0.0 33.3

AL AR AZ CA 3 30 12 6

16.7 55.6 72.5 67.2

31.7 8.6 15.0 9.2

3.3 2.0 3.3 3.3

5.0 11.2 0.0 1.7

30.0 12.6 9.2 1.2

3.3 2.6 0.0 0.8 10.0 7.4 0.0 16.76-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80%

17 10 11 7 6 3 2.4 1.4 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.4

6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80% 35 11 19 4 5 3 5.1 1.6 2.7 0.6 0.7 0.4

Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating: high

efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric Other

combinations 1.2 2.4 3.2 5.5 1.3 4.6

Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric Other

combinations 1.8 5.1 6.8 1.5 5.0 When you replace a minimum efficiency (non-condensing) furnace with a high efficiency (condensing) furnace, how often do you replace the gas water heater with an electric water heater?

When your company replaces a minimum efficiency (non-condensing) furnace, how often do you replace the gas furnace with electric heating?

If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement remains as it is today for gas furnaces. What percentage

If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement has changed to high-efficiency gas furnaces. What

Change in responses if federal minimum efficiency requirement changes to high efficiency (condensing) furnacesHeating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating: high

efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric Other

combinations 0.6 -2.4 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.4

Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating: electric

heat pump; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating: high

efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: electric 48.1 3.4 1.2 2.4 3.2 5.5 44.5 4.8 0.7 3.0 2.5 5.2 54.9 4.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 61.4 3.7 0.4 1.6 3.6 3.9 58.3 3.0 0.9 2.3 3.9 4.2 57.2 2.6 1.0 2.2 2.7 2.7 57.0 2.3 1.2 4.2 2.4 2.2 30.2 4.3 1.3 2.9 3.3 12.1 23.9 3.9 0.7 4.6 8.6 14.6 28.4 4.4 3.1 2.8 5.1 7.2 19.2 4.6 1.2 0.4 1.4 8.8

5.0 6.7 3.3 8.3 5.0 10.0 29.4 5.5 1.1 3.0 6.9 9.5 7.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 14.2 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.8 1.2

45.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement remains as it is today for gas furnaces. What percentage of your replacements would be:29.6 5.4 0.7 2.4 1.8 8.3

50.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0

77.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 2.4 3.6

10.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 30.0 30.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 63.1 3.6 2.1 2.1 3.0 3.5 34.5 4.8 1.3 1.7 2.1 11.3

73.6 4.8 2.2 2.1 4.5 1.1 71.3 1.9 0.1 2.0 5.2 3.3 28.5 3.5 0.5 0.2 0.7 5.5 5.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 40.0

31.4 0.7 0.7 2.7 11.6 5.7

60.6 4.7 0.7 0.6 1.2 2.6

56.7 2.2 0.9 2.7 2.2 1.4

21.5 4.1 1.6 1.1 2.2 2.9 95.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.5 3.7 1.0 2.8 4.5 6.3 33.5 6.5 0.0 3.5 2.7 5.8 58.3 5.9 1.7 5.3 4.5 7.9 64.7 2.8 0.7 1.9 5.8 7.8 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 15.0 60.0

20.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0 11.3 0.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.1 3.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 23.6 3.4 2.1 3.9 3.6 15.1

67.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 5.0Heating: high

efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating: electric

heat pump; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: electric 71.8 8.1 1.8 5.1 6.8 68.4 8.5 2.5 3.3 5.1 75.8 11.4 1.1 2.2 0.7 75.0 7.5 2.4 5.7 4.3 76.7 5.6 2.4 5.6 6.0 79.5 5.7 1.2 4.5 3.9 73.5 7.0 2.0 5.6 3.4 60.1 10.8 1.5 5.9 14.0 42.3 16.5 0.8 11.9 21.9 61.3 8.9 2.1 8.5 10.4 66.0 14.6 2.0 1.0 7.4

16.7 31.7 3.3 5.0 30.0 55.6 8.6 2.0 11.2 12.6 72.5 15.0 3.3 0.0 9.2 67.2 9.2 3.3 1.7 1.2

85.0 10.0 0.0 5.0 0.0

67.0 12.4 0.9 4.0 13.3

50.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 25.0

89.9 2.4 0.0 2.8 4.0

20.0 20.0 0.0 30.0 30.0 55.0 12.5 12.5 10.0 10.0 71.7 8.5 2.9 3.2 3.8 58.1 11.2 1.3 5.2 13.3

84.7 3.9 1.7 3.3 3.0 78.9 5.1 0.6 7.7 2.5 56.5 13.5 7.4 2.0 7.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement has changed to high-efficiency gas furnaces. What percentage of your replacements54.3 6.4 0.7 11.4 10.7

80.3 6.9 4.4 2.3 5.2

80.8 5.2 1.6 4.4 2.7

54.6 9.7 0.6 1.8 5.0 95.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.8 6.3 1.2 8.6 8.6 65.0 13.3 1.7 5.0 6.7 69.7 8.7 3.3 5.5 7.5 75.6 5.7 0.8 5.6 9.2 50.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.0

50.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 85.0 8.3 0.0 0.0 6.7 84.9 11.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 54.8 10.8 2.8 8.3 14.8

80.0 13.3 6.7 0.0 0.0 25.0 1.0 0.0 10.0 1.0

Heating: high efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: natural gas Heating: electric

heat pump; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: natural gas Heating:

minimumefficiency (noncondensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating: high

efficiency (condensing) furnace; Water heating: electric Heating:

electric heat pump; Water heating: electric 23.6 4.7 0.6 -2.4 2.0 1.3 23.8 3.8 1.8 -3.0 0.8 -0.2 20.9 7.3 0.2 -1.0 1.2 0.1

13.6 3.9 2.0 -1.6 2.1 0.5 Change in Percent of Installs if Minimum Standard Becomes Condensing18.4 2.6 1.5 -2.3 1.8 1.8

22.3 3.2 0.3 -2.2 1.8 1.2 16.5 4.7 0.8 -4.2 3.1 1.2 29.8 6.5 0.2 -2.9 2.6 2.0 18.4 12.6 0.1 -4.6 3.4 7.3

32.9 4.5 -1.0 -2.8 3.3 3.1 46.8 10.0 0.8 -0.4 -0.4 -1.4 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 11.7 25.0 0.0 -8.3 0.0 20.0 26.3 3.0 0.9 -3.0 4.3 3.2 65.0 12.5 3.3 0.0 0.0 -5.8 53.0 6.2 -0.3 -0.8 0.8 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 40.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 37.5 7.1 0.1 -2.4 2.2 5.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 12.8 2.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.4 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 10.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 0.0 0.0 45.0 7.5 7.5 -5.0 5.0 5.0 8.6 4.9 0.9 -2.1 0.2 0.3 23.5 6.3 0.0 -1.7 3.1 2.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 11.1 -0.8 -0.5 -2.1 -1.3 1.9 7.6 3.2 0.4 -2.0 2.5 -0.7 28.0 10.0 6.9 -0.2 1.3 1.5 15.0 0.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0 10.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 22.9 5.7 0.0 -2.7 -0.1 5.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 19.7 2.2 3.8 -0.6 1.1 2.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 24.1 3.0 0.7 -2.7 2.2 1.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 33.1 5.7 -0.9 -1.1 -0.3 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.3 2.6 0.2 -2.8 4.1 2.3 31.5 6.8 1.7 -3.5 2.3 0.9 11.5 2.8 1.6 -5.3 1.0 -0.4 10.8 2.9 0.1 -1.9 -0.2 1.4-10.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

30.0 0.0 0.0 -5.0 -15.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 30.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -10.0 73.8 8.3 -25.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 19.8 7.7 0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.1 31.1 7.4 0.7 -3.9 4.6 -0.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 12.3 13.3 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Went from gas heat to electric heat Went from gas

water heating to electric water heating Location Percent of Homes Affected Went from all

gas to not all gas

7.0 1.3 ALL 32.7 20.7 5.1 -2.6 Pacific 29.3 8.3 8.4 1.0 Mountain North 31.4 30.4 7.7 2.3 West North Central 23.3 34.6 5.9 1.3 East North Central 25.7 19.5 4.4 0.6 Middle Atlantic 28.5 14.0 8.8 2.1 New England 29.2 29.2 9.5 2.4 South Atlantic 42.3 22.6 20.5 6.5 East South Central 42.9 46.3 5.4 2.4 West South Central 41.9 14.8 11.7 0.1 Mountain South 60.0 21.3 n/a n/a AK n/a n/a 47.5 14.2 AL 61.7 67.6 6.0 3.3 AR 36.7 20.1 10.0 -5.8 AZ 75.0 13.3 -3.3 -9.2 CA 42.2 -27.7 n/a n/a CO n/a n/a 10.0 5.0 CT 55.0 27.3 n/a n/a DC n/a n/a n/a n/a DE n/a n/a n/a n/a FL n/a n/a 13.3 6.0 GA 53.0 24.9 Fuel Switching Contractors Fuel Switching Contractors (Percent of Affected Homes)n/a n/a HI n/a n/a

0.0 0.0 IA 0.0 n/a n/a n/a ID n/a n/a n/a n/a IL n/a n/a 2.5 0.7 IN 15.7 17.8 n/a n/a KS n/a n/a 10.0 -10.0 KY 20.0 0.0 5.0 -10.0 LA 55.0 9.1 7.7 0.0 MA 17.8 39.9 9.5 4.5 MD 36.7 31.1 n/a n/a ME n/a n/a 2.1 0.1 MI 12.7 -3.9 2.8 -0.2 MN 13.1 26.8 28.9 13.1 MO 57.1 50.6 10.0 5.0 MS 25.0 20.0 n/a n/a MT n/a n/a 9.6 1.1 NC 32.7 21.8 n/a n/a ND n/a n/a 9.1 3.5 NE 29.7 31.6 n/a n/a NH n/a n/a 5.3 1.1 NJ 31.5 15.1 n/a n/a NM n/a n/a 10.1 4.0 NV 45.7 25.2 0.0 0.0 NY 0.0 n/a 4.6 3.0 OH 27.0 18.1 8.9 -0.7 OK 43.1 18.8 6.0 -2.7 OR 19.9 15.9 3.7 -1.4 PA 14.9 14.5 50.0 0.0 RI 40.0 125.0 0.0 -20.0 SC 15.0 -133.3 n/a n/a SD n/a n/a 10.0 -10.0 TN 40.0 25.0 -10.0 6.7 TX 63.8 -15.7 9.2 0.9 UT 30.3 33.2 7.6 0.3 VA 44.0 20.5 n/a n/a VT n/a n/a 20.0 0.0 WA 32.3 61.9 -2.0 -2.0 WI 0.0 n/a n/a n/a WV n/a n/a n/a n/a WY n/a n/aCO CT DC DE FL GA 0 0 0 1 2 36

0.0 75.0 14.3

100.0 25.0 48.2

0.0 0.0 6.3

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 8.8

0.0 0.0 12.3

0.0 0.0 6.6

0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.1CO CT DC DE FL GA 0 0 0 1 2 36

100.0 100.0 56.9

0.0 0.0 10.6

0.0 0.0 0.3

0.0 0.0 22.1

0.0 0.0 5.9

0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 2.8CO CT DC DE FL GA 0 2 0 0 0 35

55.0 50.6

45.0 29.6

0.0 5.4

0.0 0.7

0.0 2.4

0.0 1.80.0 8.3

0.0 0.3 0.0 0.9

CO CT DC DE FL GA 0 2 0 0 0 35

85.0 67.0

10.0 12.4

0.0 0.9

5.0 4.0

0.0 13.3

0.0 1.4 0.0 1.081-99% 100%

3 0 0.4 0.0

81-99% 100% 0 2 0.0 0.3 When you replace a minimum efficiency (non-condensing) furnace with a high efficiency (condensing) furnace, how often do you replace the gas water heater with an electric water heater?Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric Other

combinations 1.3 4.6 100 0.7 12.3 100 0.4 6.7 100 0.7 3.0 100 1.3 2.7 100 1.1 4.3 100 1.1 4.5 100 1.6 4.8 100 3.6 1.8 100 3.3 6.6 100 0.2 4.6 100 0 3.3 5.0 100 3.9 7.1 100 0.0 0.0 100 1.7 33.3 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0 If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement remains as it is today for gas furnaces. What percentage of your replacements would be:0 0 0.3 0.9 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0 0 0.0 0.9 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 15.0 0.0 100 1.5 5.4 100 0.8 8.5 100 0 0.5 0.8 100 0.6 4.6 100 2.0 2.2 100 30.0 0.0 100 0 1.4 15.7 100 0 0.3 0.3 100 0 0.7 4.4 100 0 0.3 21.8 100 0.0 0.0 100 2.4 2.5 100 0.8 7.7 100 1.4 0.4 100 2.2 1.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0.1 0.0 100 3.8 4.3 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 59.0 100 0 0Heating:

electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric Other

combinations 1.5 5.0 100 1.0 11.2 100 0.2 8.6 100 2.2 2.8 100 1.8 1.8 100 1.0 4.3 100 2.3 6.2 100 2.0 5.6 100 3.5 3.1 100 1.7 7.1 100 0.6 8.4 100 0 3.3 10.0 100 2.6 7.4 100 0.0 0.0 100 0.8 16.7 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0 0 0 1.4 1.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0 0 0.0 1.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 1.8 8.0 100 1.3 9.6 100 0 1.3 2.2 100 0.4 4.8 100 13.5 0.1 100 30.0 0.0 100 0 If natural gas is currently used for heating and water heating, and the Federal minimum requirement has changed to high-efficiency gas furnaces. What percentage of your replacements0.0 16.4 100 0 0.8 0.0 100 0 1.1 4.3 100 0 0.8 27.4 100 0.0 0.0 100 2.8 0.6 100 0.0 8.3 100 1.9 3.3 100 1.1 2.1 100 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 2.5 100 2.9 5.7 100 0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 63.0 100 0 0

Heating: electric furnace or baseboard; Water heating: electric Other

combinations 0.2 0.4 0.3 -1.1 -0.3 2.0

1.4 -0.20.4 -0.8

-0.1 0.0 1.1 1.7 0.4 0.8 -0.1 1.3

-1.6 0.5 0.4 3.8 n/a n/a 0.0 5.0 -1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.8 -16.7 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.1 0.1 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0 0.1 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 -15.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 0.6 1.2 n/a n/a 0.8 1.4 -0.1 0.2 11.5 -2.1 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a -1.4 0.7 n/a n/a 0.6 -0.3 n/a n/a 0.4 -0.1 n/a n/a 0.5 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 -1.9 -0.8 0.6 0.5 3.0 -1.2 1.10.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 2.5 -0.9 1.4 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Went from gas heat to electric heat Went from gas

water heating to electric water heating

21.3 3.9 17.5 -8.7 26.6 3.1 32.9 9.8 23.0 5.1 15.6 2.1 30.0 7.2 22.4 5.7 47.8 15.2 12.8 5.7 19.5 0.1 n/a n/a 77.0 23.0 16.3 9.0 13.3 -7.8 -7.9 -21.7 n/a n/a 18.2 9.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 25.1 11.3 Fuel Switching Contractors (Percent of Affected Homes)n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 16.2 4.4 n/a n/a 50.0 -50.0 9.1 -18.2 43.1 -0.2 25.9 12.3 n/a n/a 16.8 1.0 21.5 -1.5 50.5 22.9 40.0 20.0 n/a n/a 29.5 3.3 n/a n/a 30.6 11.9 n/a n/a 16.8 3.5 n/a n/a 22.2 8.8 n/a n/a 16.9 11.1 20.7 -1.6 30.1 -13.7 25.1 -9.3 125.0 0.0 0.0 -133.3 n/a n/a 25.0 -25.0 -15.7 10.5 30.3 2.8 17.2 0.6 n/a n/a 61.9 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aHI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA 0 0 0 25 17 0 4 0 2

20.6 4.4 8.8 0.0

73.8 68.5 27.5 100.0

0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0

0.0 0.0 21.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0

0.8 15.6 15.0 0.0

1.6 7.1 15.0 0.0

0.0 1.5 2.5 0.0 3.2 2.9 5.0 0.0 StatesHI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA 0 0 0 25 17 0 4 0 2

96.0 66.8 33.8 100.0

0.0 4.7 21.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0

0.0 17.4 15.0 0.0

0.8 7.1 15.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 3.2 4.1 10.0 0.0HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA 0 1 0 0 9 0 1 2 17

0.0 15.6 10.0 50.0 15.7

50.0 77.1 10.0 10.0 63.1

25.0 0.3 10.0 5.0 3.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 2.1

0.0 0.1 10.0 5.0 2.1

0.0 2.4 30.0 5.0 3.025.0 3.6 30.0 5.0 3.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 1.5 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 5.4

HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA 0 1 0 0 8 0 1 2 17

50.0 89.9 20.0 55.0 71.7

25.0 2.4 20.0 12.5 8.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 2.9

0.0 2.8 30.0 10.0 3.2

25.0 4.0 30.0 10.0 3.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.0MD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND

1 0 7 10 14 2 0 5 0

0.0 14.3 0.5 37.5 10.0 22.0

70.0 61.4 65.3 31.4 90.0 27.0

0.0 8.6 1.0 11.4 0.0 3.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.0 0.0 16.8 2.9 0.0 2.0

0.0 15.0 14.4 16.4 0.0 22.0

25.0 0.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 20.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 StatesMD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND

1 0 7 10 14 2 0 5 0

95.0 77.1 64.7 50.0 95.0 44.0

0.0 7.9 1.0 10.7 5.0 26.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 15.0 32.3 33.6 0.0 12.0

5.0 0.0 2.0 2.9 0.0 16.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 StatesMD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND

26 0 12 47 10 1 0 7 0

35.0 10.6 11.1 56.9 20.0 30.0

34.5 73.6 71.3 28.5 5.0 31.4

4.8 4.8 1.9 3.5 0.0 0.7

1.3 2.2 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.7

1.7 2.1 2.0 0.2 5.0 2.7

2.1 4.5 5.2 0.7 0.0 11.6 State11.3 1.1 3.3 5.5 40.0 5.7

0.8 0.5 0.6 2.0 30.0 1.4 8.5 0.8 4.6 2.2 0.0 15.7

MD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND 26 0 12 47 10 1 0 7 0

58.1 84.7 78.9 56.5 20.0 54.3

11.2 3.9 5.1 13.5 0.0 6.4

1.3 1.7 0.6 7.4 0.0 0.7

5.2 3.3 7.7 2.0 0.0 11.4

13.3 3.0 2.5 7.0 50.0 10.7

1.3 1.3 0.4 13.5 30.0 0.0 9.6 2.2 4.8 0.1 0.0 16.4 StateNE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR

11 0 12 0 0 0 12 0 8

10.9 35.0 17.3 7.5

75.0 55.8 63.8 91.3

1.4 0.0 0.8 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.7 9.2 4.6 0.0

1.9 0.0 0.2 1.3

0.0 0.0 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 0.0NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR

11 0 11 0 0 0 12 0 8

83.3 84.1 81.1 73.8

1.4 6.8 0.8 15.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.4 0.0 4.6 0.0

1.9 9.1 8.5 11.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 0.0NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR

18 0 171 0 19 1 33 13 19

29.1 28.8 44.6 0.0 24.2 39.6 14.6

60.6 56.7 21.5 95.0 52.5 33.5 58.3

4.7 2.2 4.1 5.0 3.7 6.5 5.9

0.7 0.9 1.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.7

0.6 2.7 1.1 0.0 2.8 3.5 5.3

1.2 2.2 2.2 0.0 4.5 2.7 4.52.6 1.4 2.9 0.0 6.3 5.8 7.9

0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.4 0.8 1.4 0.3 4.4 21.8 0.0 2.5 7.7 0.4

NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR 18 0 170 0 19 1 33 12 18

80.3 80.8 54.6 95.0 71.8 65.0 69.7

6.9 5.2 9.7 5.0 6.3 13.3 8.7

4.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 1.2 1.7 3.3

2.3 4.4 1.8 0.0 8.6 5.0 5.5

5.2 2.7 5.0 0.0 8.6 6.7 7.5

0.8 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.8 0.0 1.9 0.0 4.3 27.4 0.0 0.6 8.3 3.3PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VA VT

5 0 1 0 4 2 0 5 0

33.0 100.0 2.5 50.0 20.0

51.0 0.0 68.8 12.5 57.0

2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.0

2.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 6.0

2.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 1.0

2.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 16.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VA VT

5 0 1 0 4 2 0 5 0

80.0 100.0 50.0 62.5 57.0

2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0

2.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.0

2.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 6.0

6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

2.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 16.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VA VT

25 1 1 0 2 4 24 42 0

13.0 40.0 10.0 40.0 63.8 29.9 40.2

64.7 60.0 10.0 20.0 11.3 65.1 23.6

2.8 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 3.4 3.4

0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.3 2.1

1.9 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.9

5.8 0.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.67.8 0.0 60.0 30.0 0.0 0.4 15.1

2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3

PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VA VT 25 1 1 0 2 3 24 38 0

75.6 50.0 40.0 50.0 85.0 84.9 54.8

5.7 50.0 0.0 30.0 8.3 11.1 10.8

0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8

5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 8.3

9.2 0.0 60.0 20.0 6.7 0.5 14.8

1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 5.7WA WI WV WY

3 0 0 0

0.0

66.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.3

30.0 0.0WA WI WV WY

3 0 0 0

66.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.3

30.0 0.0WA WI WV WY

3 1 0 0

32.3 0.0

67.7 25.0

0.0 1.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 10.00.0 5.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 59.0

WA WI WV WY 3 1 0 0

80.0 25.0

13.3 1.0

6.7 0.0

0.0 10.0

0.0 1.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 63.0ALL 1 Pacific 2 Mountain North 3 West North Central 4 East North Central 5 Middle Atlantic 6 New England 7 South Atlantic 8 East South Central 9 West South Central 10 Mountain South 11

### Mandatory

**Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences Impact of Fuel Sw** **itching on Residential Heating** Installation Contractors 

### Region **Pacific Number of Homes**  **334,231**

**Base Case**

**Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas**  **Furnace**

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kW h 1 34.9 31.0 % of homes impacted 29.3% 100.0% Number of homes impacted 97,838 97,838 Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & electrcity in MW H. 3,414,562 3,032,992

**Customer Operating Cost Impact**
Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kW h $13.00 $13.00 Annual heating operating cost to residential customers $44,389,301 $39,428,892

**Full Fuel Cy cle Source Energy**  **Impact**

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 3,721,872 3,305,961

**CO 2** **e Emissions Impact**

CO 2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and lbs/MW H for electricity 147.0 147.0

Total CO 2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 228,155 202,659 **Site Energy**

**Consumption Impact - Residential Heating and Water Heating**  **High Efficiency Impact** **CO 2** **Externalities Impact**

CO 2Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 Total Annual CO 2externalities Impact ($/Yr) $8,441,728 $7,498,383

Units: 1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm 1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu 1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)
Assumptions: Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com) Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices CO 2externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

### DRA**FT 7/11/2014**

**Change w /o**  **Fuel Sw itching**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heater**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heat**  **Pump Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes w** **ith Natural Gas**  **Furnace Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching**  **from Gas Water Heater**  100% 8.1 90% 0.62
-3.9 8,106 3,276 31.0 18.5

**6.8% 11.9%**  **81.3% 6.9%**  97,838 6,646 11,631 79,561 6,786 -381,570 53,875 38,104 2,466,389 125,539

$13.00 $0.2018 $0.2018 $13.00 $13.00
-$4,960,409 $10,869,890 $7,687,772 $32,063,055 $1,632,008

1.09 2.74 2.74 1.09 1.09 -415,911 503,823 356,331 2,688,364 136,838

147.0 1,182 1,182 147.0 147.0

-25,496 28,946 20,472 164,800 8,388 **High Efficiency**

**Impact High Efficiency**  **Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**$37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

-$943,345 $1,070,995 $757,465 $6,097,586 $310,367

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)
Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices**Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching to**  **Electric Water Heater**  **Total Gas**

**Consumption with Fuel**  **Sw itching**  **(Dth) Change in** 

**Electric Consumption**  **Compared to Base Case**  **(MWh) Change in Gas** 

**Consumption Compared to Base Case (Dth)** 

0.95 3,537 **-6.9%** -6,786 -24,002 2,591,928 67,977 -822,634

Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost ($/Yr) **Change in Energy Cost**  **Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $0.2018
-$4,842,576 $33,695,063 $13,715,086 **$3,020,848**

Gas Source Energy (Dth/Yr) Electricity

Source Energy (Dth/Yr) **Change in Source Energy**

**Compared to Base Case w/Fuel Sw** **itching (Dth/Yr)**
2.74 -224,455 2,825,201 635,699 **-260,972**

Gas CO2e emissions (Tons/Yr) Electricity

CO2e Emissions (Tons/Yr) **Change in CO2e Emissions**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching (Tons/Yr)** 
1,182.0

-12,895 173,188 36,522 **-18,445 High Efficiency** 

**Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**Gas CO2 Externalities Cost ($/Yr) Electricity CO2

Externalities Cost ($/Yr) **Change in CO2**

**Externalities Compared to Base Case w** **ith Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $37.00 -$477,132 $6,407,953 $1,351,328 **-$682,447**

### Mandatory

**Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences Impact of Fuel Sw** **itching on Residential Heating** Installation Contractors 

### Region **Mountain North Number of Homes**  **131,667**

**Base Case**

**Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas**  **Furnace**

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kW h 1 63.4 56.4 % of homes impacted 31.4% 100.0% Number of homes impacted 41,343 41,343 Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & electrcity in MW H. 2,621,167 2,331,764

**Customer Operating Cost Impact**
Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kW h $7.85 $7.85 Annual heating operating cost to residential customers $20,576,160 $18,304,344

**Full Fuel Cy cle Source Energy**  **Impact**

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 2,857,072 2,541,622

**CO 2** **e Emissions Impact**

CO 2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and lbs/MW H for electricity 147.0 147.0

Total CO 2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 175,142 155,804 **Site Energy**

**Consumption Impact - Residential Heating and Water Heating**  **High Efficiency Impact** **CO 2** **Externalities Impact**

CO 2Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 Total Annual CO 2externalities Impact ($/Yr) $6,480,239 $5,764,755

Units: 1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm 1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu 1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)
Assumptions: Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com) Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices CO 2externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

### DRA**FT 7/11/2014**

**Change w /o**  **Fuel Sw itching**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heater**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heat**  **Pump Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes w** **ith Natural Gas**  **Furnace Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching**  **from Gas Water Heater**  100% 8.1 90% 0.62
-7.0 14,720 6,503 56.4 20.7

**-0.1% 25.1%**  **75.0% 0.0%**  41,343 -47 10,394 30,996 0 -289,403 -689 67,595 1,748,162 0

$7.85 $0.1027 $0.1027 $7.85 $7.85
-$2,271,816 -$70,772 $6,940,938 $13,723,075 $0

1.09 2.98 2.98 1.09 1.09 -315,450 -7,010 687,486 1,905,497 0

147.0 1,636 1,636 147.0 147.0

-19,337 -513 50,266 116,809 0 **High Efficiency**

**Impact High Efficiency**  **Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**$37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

-$715,484 -$18,963 $1,859,832 $4,321,934 $0

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)
Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices**Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching to**  **Electric Water Heater**  **Total Gas**

**Consumption with Fuel**  **Sw itching**  **(Dth) Change in** 

**Electric Consumption**  **Compared to Base Case**  **(MWh) Change in Gas** 

**Consumption Compared to Base Case (Dth)** 

0.95 3,950 **0.0%** 0 0 1,748,162 66,905 -873,004

Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost ($/Yr) **Change in Energy Cost**  **Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $0.1027
$0 $13,723,075 $6,870,166 **$17,082**

Gas Source Energy (Dth/Yr) Electricity

Source Energy (Dth/Yr) **Change in Source Energy**

**Compared to Base Case w/Fuel Sw** **itching (Dth/Yr)**
2.98 0 1,905,497 680,476 **-271,098**

Gas CO2e emissions (Tons/Yr) Electricity

CO2e Emissions (Tons/Yr) **Change in CO2e Emissions**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching (Tons/Yr)** 
1,636.0

0 116,809 49,753 **-8,579 High Efficiency** 

**Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**Gas CO2 Externalities Cost ($/Yr) Electricity CO2

Externalities Cost ($/Yr) **Change in CO2**

**Externalities Compared to Base Case w** **ith Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $37.00 $0 $4,321,934 $1,840,869 **-$317,436**

### Mandatory

**Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences Impact of Fuel Sw** **itching on Residential Heating** Installation Contractors 

### Region **West North Central Number of Homes**  **212,692**

**Base Case**

**Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas**  **Furnace**

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kW h 1 98.7 87.7 % of homes impacted 23.3% 100.0% Number of homes impacted 49,478 49,478 Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & electrcity in MW H. 4,883,433 4,339,180

**Customer Operating Cost Impact**
Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kW h $6.80 $6.80 Annual heating operating cost to residential customers $33,207,345 $29,506,425

**Full Fuel Cy cle Source Energy**  **Impact**

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 5,322,942 4,729,706

**CO 2** **e Emissions Impact**

CO 2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and lbs/MW H for electricity 147.0 147.0

Total CO 2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 326,302 289,936 **Site Energy**

**Consumption Impact - Residential Heating and Water Heating**  **High Efficiency Impact** **CO 2** **Externalities Impact**

CO 2Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 Total Annual CO 2externalities Impact ($/Yr) $12,073,178 $10,727,637

Units: 1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm 1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu 1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)
Assumptions: Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com) Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices CO 2externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

### DRA**FT 7/11/2014**

**Change w /o**  **Fuel Sw itching**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heater**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heat**  **Pump Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes w** **ith Natural Gas**  **Furnace Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching**  **from Gas Water Heater**  100% 8.1 90% 0.62
-11.0 23,019 12,796 87.7 21.7

**14.7% 18.3%**  **67.0% -10.2%**  49,478 7,279 9,073 33,126 -5,025 -544,253 167,560 116,094 2,905,123 -109,039

$6.80 $0.1165 $0.1165 $6.80 $6.80
-$3,700,920 $19,513,706 $13,520,006 $19,754,835 -$741,468

1.09 3.59 3.59 1.09 1.09 -593,236 2,053,059 1,422,455 3,166,584 -118,853

147.0 2,301 2,301 147.0 147.0

-36,366 175,253 121,423 194,115 -7,286 **High Efficiency**

**Impact High Efficiency**  **Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**$37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

-$1,345,542 $6,484,350 $4,492,660 $7,182,256 -$269,575

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)
Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices**Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching to**  **Electric Water Heater**  **Total Gas**

**Consumption with Fuel**  **Sw itching**  **(Dth) Change in** 

**Electric Consumption**  **Compared to Base Case**  **(MWh) Change in Gas** 

**Consumption Compared to Base Case (Dth)** 

0.95 4,156 **10.2%** 5,025 20,883 2,796,083 304,537 -2,087,350

Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost ($/Yr) **Change in Energy Cost**  **Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $0.1165
$2,432,025 $19,013,367 $35,465,738 **$21,271,760**

Gas Source Energy (Dth/Yr) Electricity

Source Energy (Dth/Yr) **Change in Source Energy**

**Compared to Base Case w/Fuel Sw** **itching (Dth/Yr)**
3.59 255,876 3,047,731 3,731,391 **1,456,180**

Gas CO2e emissions (Tons/Yr) Electricity

CO2e Emissions (Tons/Yr) **Change in CO2e Emissions**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching (Tons/Yr)** 
2,301.0

21,842 186,829 318,518 **179,045 High Efficiency** 

**Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**Gas CO2 Externalities Cost ($/Yr) Electricity CO2

Externalities Cost ($/Yr) **Change in CO2**

**Externalities Compared to Base Case w** **ith Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $37.00 $808,155 $6,912,681 $11,785,165 **$6,624,668**

### Mandatory

**Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences Impact of Fuel Sw** **itching on Residential Heating** Installation Contractors 

### Region **East North Central Number of Homes**  **592,500**

**Base Case**

**Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas**  **Furnace**

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kW h 1 80.3 71.3 % of homes impacted 25.7% 100.0% Number of homes impacted 152,476 152,476 Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & electrcity in MW H. 12,243,834 10,871,549

**Customer Operating Cost Impact**
Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kW h $7.70 $7.70 Annual heating operating cost to residential customers $94,277,524 $83,710,927

**Full Fuel Cy cle Source Energy**  **Impact**

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 13,345,779 11,849,988

**CO 2** **e Emissions Impact**

CO 2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and lbs/MW H for electricity 147.0 147.0

Total CO 2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 818,111 726,417 **Site Energy**

**Consumption Impact - Residential Heating and Water Heating**  **High Efficiency Impact** **CO 2** **Externalities Impact**

CO 2Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 Total Annual CO 2externalities Impact ($/Yr) $30,270,097 $26,877,434

Units: 1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm 1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu 1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)
Assumptions: Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com) Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices CO 2externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

### DRA**FT 7/11/2014**

**Change w /o**  **Fuel Sw itching**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heater**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heat**  **Pump Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes w** **ith Natural Gas**  **Furnace Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching**  **from Gas Water Heater**  100% 8.1 90% 0.62
-9.0 18,689 8,765 71.3 20.8

**7.3% 16.6%**  **76.1% -6.7%**  152,476 11,068 25,323 116,084 -10,166 -1,372,285 206,856 221,960 8,276,815 -211,446

$7.70 $0.1026 $0.1026 $7.70 $7.70
-$10,566,597 $21,233,083 $22,783,447 $63,731,476 -$1,628,134

1.09 3.30 3.30 1.09 1.09 -1,495,791 2,329,800 2,499,913 9,021,728 -230,476

147.0 2,242 2,242 147.0 147.0

-91,694 210,805 226,197 553,042 -14,128 **High Efficiency**

**Impact High Efficiency**  **Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**$37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

-$3,392,663 $7,799,791 $8,369,304 $20,462,544 -$522,752

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)
Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices**Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching to**  **Electric Water Heater**  **Total Gas**

**Consumption with Fuel**  **Sw itching**  **(Dth) Change in** 

**Electric Consumption**  **Compared to Base Case**  **(MWh) Change in Gas** 

**Consumption Compared to Base Case (Dth)** 

0.95 3,980 **6.7%** 10,166 40,459 8,065,369 469,275 -4,178,465

Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost ($/Yr) **Change in Energy Cost**  **Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $0.1026
$4,153,019 $62,103,342 $48,169,549 **$15,995,368**

Gas Source Energy (Dth/Yr) Electricity

Source Energy (Dth/Yr) **Change in Source Energy**

**Compared to Base Case w/Fuel Sw** **itching (Dth/Yr)**
3.30 455,690 8,791,252 5,285,403 **730,876**

Gas CO2e emissions (Tons/Yr) Electricity

CO2e Emissions (Tons/Yr) **Change in CO2e Emissions**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching (Tons/Yr)** 
2,242.0

41,232 538,913 478,234 **199,037 High Efficiency** 

**Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**Gas CO2 Externalities Cost ($/Yr) Electricity CO2

Externalities Cost ($/Yr) **Change in CO2**

**Externalities Compared to Base Case w** **ith Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $37.00 $1,525,576 $19,939,792 $17,694,672 **$7,364,366**

### Mandatory

**Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences Impact of Fuel Sw** **itching on Residential Heating** Installation Contractors 

### Region **Middle A tlantic**  **Number of Homes 263,333** 

**Base Case**

**Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas**  **Furnace**

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kW h 1 67.8 60.2 % of homes impacted 28.5% 100.0% Number of homes impacted 74,948 74,948 Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & electrcity in MW H. 5,081,446 4,511,844

**Customer Operating Cost Impact**
Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kW h $9.50 $9.50 Annual heating operating cost to residential customers $48,273,735 $42,862,520

**Full Fuel Cy cle Source Energy**  **Impact**

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 5,538,776 4,917,910

**CO 2** **e Emissions Impact**

CO 2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and lbs/MW H for electricity 147.0 147.0

Total CO 2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 339,533 301,473 **Site Energy**

**Consumption Impact - Residential Heating and Water Heating**  **High Efficiency Impact** **CO 2** **Externalities Impact**

CO 2Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 Total Annual CO 2externalities Impact ($/Yr) $12,562,720 $11,154,509

Units: 1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm 1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu 1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)
Assumptions: Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com) Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices CO 2externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

### DRA**FT 7/11/2014**

**Change w /o**  **Fuel Sw itching**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heater**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heat**  **Pump Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes w** **ith Natural Gas**  **Furnace Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching**  **from Gas Water Heater**  100% 8.1 90% 0.62
-7.6 15,775 6,756 60.2 20

**0.4% 15.2%**  **84.4% -2.1%**  74,948 321 11,383 63,243 -1,595 -569,602 5,071 76,905 3,807,226 -31,893

$9.50 $0.1299 $0.1299 $9.50 $9.50
-$5,411,215 $658,729 $9,989,460 $36,168,646 -$302,980

1.09 3.20 3.20 1.09 1.09 -620,866 55,386 839,921 4,149,876 -34,763

147.0 1,878 1,878 147.0 147.0

-38,060 4,329 65,649 254,392 -2,131 **High Efficiency**

**Impact High Efficiency**  **Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**$37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

-$1,408,210 $160,174 $2,428,995 $9,412,501 -$78,847

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)
Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices**Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching to**  **Electric Water Heater**  **Total Gas**

**Consumption with Fuel**  **Sw itching**  **(Dth) Change in** 

**Electric Consumption**  **Compared to Base Case**  **(MWh) Change in Gas** 

**Consumption Compared to Base Case (Dth)** 

0.95 3,817 **2.1%** 1,595 6,087 3,775,333 88,063 -1,306,112

Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost ($/Yr) **Change in Energy Cost**  **Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $0.1299
$790,627 $35,865,667 $11,438,817 **-$969,252**

Gas Source Energy (Dth/Yr) Electricity

Source Energy (Dth/Yr) **Change in Source Energy**

**Compared to Base Case w/Fuel Sw** **itching (Dth/Yr)**
3.20 66,477 4,115,113 961,784 **-461,879**

Gas CO2e emissions (Tons/Yr) Electricity

CO2e Emissions (Tons/Yr) **Change in CO2e Emissions**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching (Tons/Yr)** 
1,878.0

5,196 252,261 75,173 **-12,099 High Efficiency** 

**Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**Gas CO2 Externalities Cost ($/Yr) Electricity CO2

Externalities Cost ($/Yr) **Change in CO2**

**Externalities Compared to Base Case w** **ith Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $37.00 $192,246 $9,333,654 $2,781,415 **-$447,652**

### Mandatory

**Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences Impact of Fuel Sw** **itching on Residential Heating** Installation Contractors 

### Region **New England**  **Number of Homes 50,641** 

**Base Case**

**Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas**  **Furnace**

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kW h 1 78.3 69.6 % of homes impacted 29.2% 100.0% Number of homes impacted 14,796 14,796 Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & electrcity in MW H. 1,158,526 1,029,800

**Customer Operating Cost Impact**
Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kW h $9.70 $9.70 Annual heating operating cost to residential customers $11,237,698 $9,989,065

**Full Fuel Cy cle Source Energy**  **Impact**

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 1,262,793 1,122,483

**CO 2** **e Emissions Impact**

CO 2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and lbs/MW H for electricity 147.0 147.0

Total CO 2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 77,411 68,809 **Site Energy**

**Consumption Impact - Residential Heating and Water Heating**  **High Efficiency Impact** **CO 2** **Externalities Impact**

CO 2Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 Total Annual CO 2externalities Impact ($/Yr) $2,864,191 $2,545,948

Units: 1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm 1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu 1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)
Assumptions: Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com) Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices CO 2externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

### DRA**FT 7/11/2014**

**Change w /o**  **Fuel Sw itching**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heater**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heat**  **Pump Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes w** **ith Natural Gas**  **Furnace Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching**  **from Gas Water Heater**  100% 8.1 90% 0.62
-8.7 18,264 8,252 69.6 20.6

**7.2% 21.6%**  **71.2% -4.4%**  14,796 1,070 3,196 10,530 -644 -128,725 19,536 26,375 732,902 -13,267

$9.70 $0.1747 $0.1747 $9.70 $9.70
-$1,248,633 $3,412,458 $4,607,073 $7,109,154 -$128,688

1.09 2.82 2.82 1.09 1.09 -140,310 188,024 253,847 798,864 -14,461

147.0 1,399 1,399 147.0 147.0

-8,601 12,423 16,772 48,971 -886 **High Efficiency**

**Impact High Efficiency**  **Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**$37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

-$318,243 $459,648 $620,559 $1,811,935 -$32,799

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)
Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices**Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching to**  **Electric Water Heater**  **Total Gas**

**Consumption with Fuel**  **Sw itching**  **(Dth) Change in** 

**Electric Consumption**  **Compared to Base Case**  **(MWh) Change in Gas** 

**Consumption Compared to Base Case (Dth)** 

0.95 3,935 **4.4%** 644 2,534 719,636 48,445 -438,890

Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost ($/Yr) **Change in Energy Cost**  **Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $0.1747
$442,674 $6,980,465 $8,462,204 **$4,204,972**

Gas Source Energy (Dth/Yr) Electricity

Source Energy (Dth/Yr) **Change in Source Energy**

**Compared to Base Case w/Fuel Sw** **itching (Dth/Yr)**
2.82 24,391 784,403 466,262 **-12,128**

Gas CO2e emissions (Tons/Yr) Electricity

CO2e Emissions (Tons/Yr) **Change in CO2e Emissions**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching (Tons/Yr)** 
1,399.0

1,612 48,085 30,806 **1,480 High Efficiency** 

**Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**Gas CO2 Externalities Cost ($/Yr) Electricity CO2

Externalities Cost ($/Yr) **Change in CO2**

**Externalities Compared to Base Case w** **ith Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $37.00 $59,627 $1,779,135 $1,139,834 **$54,778**

### Mandatory

**Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences Impact of Fuel Sw** **itching on Residential Heating** Installation Contractors 

### Region **South A tlantic**  **Number of Homes 238,013** 

**Base Case**

**Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas**  **Furnace**

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kW h 1 35.8 31.8 % of homes impacted 42.3% 100.0% Number of homes impacted 100,671 100,671 Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & electrcity in MW H. 3,604,007 3,201,325

**Customer Operating Cost Impact**
Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kW h $9.99 $9.99 Annual heating operating cost to residential customers $36,004,031 $31,981,234

**Full Fuel Cy cle Source Energy**  **Impact**

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 3,928,368 3,489,444

**CO 2** **e Emissions Impact**

CO 2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and lbs/MW H for electricity 147.0 147.0

Total CO 2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 240,813 213,907 **Site Energy**

**Consumption Impact - Residential Heating and Water Heating**  **High Efficiency Impact** **CO 2** **Externalities Impact**

CO 2Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 Total Annual CO 2externalities Impact ($/Yr) $8,910,088 $7,914,548

Units: 1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm 1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu 1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)
Assumptions: Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com) Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices CO 2externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

### DRA**FT 7/11/2014**

**Change w /o**  **Fuel Sw itching**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heater**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heat**  **Pump Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes w** **ith Natural Gas**  **Furnace Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching**  **from Gas Water Heater**  100% 8.1 90% 0.62
-4.0 8,315 3,427 31.8 18.5

**1.4% 20.5%**  **78.1% -4.7%**  100,671 1,459 20,601 78,610 -4,781 -402,682 12,132 70,601 2,499,803 -88,442

$9.99 $0.1031 $0.1031 $9.99 $9.99
-$4,022,797 $1,251,314 $7,281,825 $24,973,036 -$883,532

1.09 3.14 3.14 1.09 1.09 -438,924 130,017 756,617 2,724,786 -96,401

147.0 1,859 1,859 147.0 147.0

-26,907 10,252 59,658 167,032 -5,910 **High Efficiency**

**Impact High Efficiency**  **Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**$37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

-$995,541 $379,310 $2,207,335 $6,180,196 -$218,652

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)
Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices**Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching to**  **Electric Water Heater**  **Total Gas**

**Consumption with Fuel**  **Sw itching**  **(Dth) Change in** 

**Electric Consumption**  **Compared to Base Case**  **(MWh) Change in Gas** 

**Consumption Compared to Base Case (Dth)** 

0.95 3,537 **4.7%** 4,781 16,909 2,411,362 99,642 -1,192,645

Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost ($/Yr) **Change in Energy Cost**  **Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $0.1031
$1,744,016 $24,089,504 $10,277,155 **-$1,637,372**

Gas Source Energy (Dth/Yr) Electricity

Source Energy (Dth/Yr) **Change in Source Energy**

**Compared to Base Case w/Fuel Sw** **itching (Dth/Yr)**
3.14 181,212 2,628,384 1,067,846 **-232,138**

Gas CO2e emissions (Tons/Yr) Electricity

CO2e Emissions (Tons/Yr) **Change in CO2e Emissions**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching (Tons/Yr)** 
1,859.0

14,288 161,123 84,198 **4,507 High Efficiency** 

**Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**Gas CO2 Externalities Cost ($/Yr) Electricity CO2

Externalities Cost ($/Yr) **Change in CO2**

**Externalities Compared to Base Case w** **ith Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $37.00 $528,663 $5,961,544 $3,115,308 **$166,764**

### Mandatory

**Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences Impact of Fuel Sw** **itching on Residential Heating** Installation Contractors 

### Region **East South Central Number of Homes**  **101,282**

**Base Case**

**Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas**  **Furnace**

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kW h 1 40.5 36.0 % of homes impacted 42.9% 100.0% Number of homes impacted 43,407 43,407 Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & electrcity in MW H. 1,757,967 1,562,637

**Customer Operating Cost Impact**
Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kW h $7.59 $7.59 Annual heating operating cost to residential customers $13,342,967 $11,860,415

**Full Fuel Cy cle Source Energy**  **Impact**

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 1,916,184 1,703,274

**CO 2** **e Emissions Impact**

CO 2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and lbs/MW H for electricity 147.0 147.0

Total CO 2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 117,464 104,413 **Site Energy**

**Consumption Impact - Residential Heating and Water Heating**  **High Efficiency Impact** **CO 2** **Externalities Impact**

CO 2Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 Total Annual CO 2externalities Impact ($/Yr) $4,346,173 $3,863,265

Units: 1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm 1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu 1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)
Assumptions: Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com) Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices CO 2externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

### DRA**FT 7/11/2014**

**Change w /o**  **Fuel Sw itching**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heater**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heat**  **Pump Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes w** **ith Natural Gas**  **Furnace Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching**  **from Gas Water Heater**  100% 8.1 90% 0.62
-4.5 9,394 3,962 36.0 18.7

**-0.1% 47.9%**  **52.3% -13.7%**  43,407 -57 20,771 22,693 -5,954 -195,330 -539 82,294 816,950 -111,349

$7.59 $0.1296 $0.1296 $7.59 $7.59
-$1,482,552 -$69,848 $10,664,084 $6,200,653 -$845,139

1.09 3.25 3.25 1.09 1.09 -212,909 -5,979 912,829 890,476 -121,370

147.0 2,157 2,157 147.0 147.0

-13,052 -528 80,686 54,587 -7,440 **High Efficiency**

**Impact High Efficiency**  **Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**$37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

-$482,908 -$19,554 $2,985,375 $2,019,724 -$275,285

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)
Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices**Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching to**  **Electric Water Heater**  **Total Gas**

**Consumption with Fuel**  **Sw itching**  **(Dth) Change in** 

**Electric Consumption**  **Compared to Base Case**  **(MWh) Change in Gas** 

**Consumption Compared to Base Case (Dth)** 

0.95 3,567 **13.7%** 5,954 21,240 705,601 102,995 -1,052,365

Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost ($/Yr) **Change in Energy Cost**  **Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $0.1296
$2,752,338 $5,355,514 $13,346,575 **$5,359,122**

Gas Source Energy (Dth/Yr) Electricity

Source Energy (Dth/Yr) **Change in Source Energy**

**Compared to Base Case w/Fuel Sw** **itching (Dth/Yr)**
3.25 235,596 769,105 1,142,446 **-4,632**

Gas CO2e emissions (Tons/Yr) Electricity

CO2e Emissions (Tons/Yr) **Change in CO2e Emissions**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching (Tons/Yr)** 
2,157.0

20,825 47,147 100,982 **30,665 High Efficiency** 

**Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**Gas CO2 Externalities Cost ($/Yr) Electricity CO2

Externalities Cost ($/Yr) **Change in CO2**

**Externalities Compared to Base Case w** **ith Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $37.00 $770,508 $1,744,439 $3,736,329 **$1,134,595**

### Mandatory

**Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences Impact of Fuel Sw** **itching on Residential Heating** Installation Contractors 

### Region **West South Central Number of Homes**  **232,949**

**Base Case**

**Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas**  **Furnace**

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kW h 1 23.7 21.1 % of homes impacted 41.9% 100.0% Number of homes impacted 97,648 97,648 Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & electrcity in MW H. 2,314,264 2,060,379

**Customer Operating Cost Impact**
Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kW h $6.31 $6.31 Annual heating operating cost to residential customers $14,603,007 $13,000,990

**Full Fuel Cy cle Source Energy**  **Impact**

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 2,522,548 2,245,813

**CO 2** **e Emissions Impact**

CO 2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and lbs/MW H for electricity 147.0 147.0

Total CO 2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 154,635 137,671 **Site Energy**

**Consumption Impact - Residential Heating and Water Heating**  **High Efficiency Impact** **CO 2** **Externalities Impact**

CO 2Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 Total Annual CO 2externalities Impact ($/Yr) $5,721,492 $5,093,818

Units: 1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm 1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu 1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)
Assumptions: Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com) Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices CO 2externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

### DRA**FT 7/11/2014**

**Change w /o**  **Fuel Sw itching**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heater**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heat**  **Pump Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes w** **ith Natural Gas**  **Furnace Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching**  **from Gas Water Heater**  100% 8.1 90% 0.62
-2.6 5,497 2,229 21.1 17.1

**-6.1% 18.4%**  **87.7% -5.0%**  97,648 -5,963 17,972 85,639 -4,899 -253,886 -32,776 40,060 1,806,975 -83,769

$6.31 $0.0829 $0.0829 $6.31 $6.31
-$1,602,018 -$2,717,046 $3,320,860 $11,402,014 -$528,584

1.09 3.00 3.00 1.09 1.09 -276,735 -335,594 410,174 1,969,603 -91,309

147.0 1,566 1,566 147.0 147.0

-16,964 -23,331 28,515 120,739 -5,597 **High Efficiency**

**Impact High Efficiency**  **Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**$37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

-$627,674 -$863,233 $1,055,071 $4,467,336 -$207,101

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)
Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices**Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching to**  **Electric Water Heater**  **Total Gas**

**Consumption with Fuel**  **Sw itching**  **(Dth) Change in** 

**Electric Consumption**  **Compared to Base Case**  **(MWh) Change in Gas** 

**Consumption Compared to Base Case (Dth)** 

0.95 3,272 **5.0%** 4,899 16,029 1,723,206 23,313 -591,058

Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost ($/Yr) **Change in Energy Cost**  **Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $0.0829
$1,328,745 $10,873,430 $1,932,559 **-$1,797,018**

Gas Source Energy (Dth/Yr) Electricity

Source Energy (Dth/Yr) **Change in Source Energy**

**Compared to Base Case w/Fuel Sw** **itching (Dth/Yr)**
3.00 164,119 1,878,295 238,699 **-405,554**

Gas CO2e emissions (Tons/Yr) Electricity

CO2e Emissions (Tons/Yr) **Change in CO2e Emissions**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching (Tons/Yr)** 
1,566.0

11,410 115,141 16,594 **-22,899 High Efficiency** 

**Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**Gas CO2 Externalities Cost ($/Yr) Electricity CO2

Externalities Cost ($/Yr) **Change in CO2**

**Externalities Compared to Base Case w** **ith Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $37.00 $422,156 $4,260,235 $613,994 **-$847,263**

### Mandatory

**Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences Impact of Fuel Sw** **itching on Residential Heating** Installation Contractors 

### Region **Mountain South Number of Homes**  **86,090**

**Base Case**

**Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas**  **Furnace**

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kW h 1 10.6 9.4 % of homes impacted 60.0% 100.0% Number of homes impacted 51,654 51,654 Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & electrcity in MW H. 547,531 485,546

**Customer Operating Cost Impact**
Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kW h $9.50 $9.50 Annual heating operating cost to residential customers $5,201,541 $4,612,688

**Full Fuel Cy cle Source Energy**  **Impact**

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 596,808 529,245

**CO 2** **e Emissions Impact**

CO 2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and lbs/MW H for electricity 147.0 147.0

Total CO 2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 36,585 32,443 **Site Energy**

**Consumption Impact - Residential Heating and Water Heating**  **High Efficiency Impact** **CO 2** **Externalities Impact**

CO 2Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 Total Annual CO 2externalities Impact ($/Yr) $1,353,645 $1,200,402

Units: 1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm 1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu 1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)
Assumptions: Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com) Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices CO 2externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

### DRA**FT 7/11/2014**

**Change w /o**  **Fuel Sw itching**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heater**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heat**  **Pump Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes w** **ith Natural Gas**  **Furnace Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching**  **from Gas Water Heater**  100% 8.1 90% 0.62
-1.2 2,482 996 9.4 15.6

**2.1% 15.3%**  **82.6% 3.1%**  51,654 1,103 7,904 42,647 1,584 -61,985 2,737 7,873 400,878 24,711

$9.50 $0.1029 $0.1029 $9.50 $9.50
-$588,854 $281,637 $809,961 $3,808,340 $234,756

1.09 2.90 2.90 1.09 1.09 -67,563 27,095 77,922 436,957 26,935

147.0 1,508 1,508 147.0 147.0

-4,142 1,876 5,396 26,786 1,651 **High Efficiency**

**Impact High Efficiency**  **Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**$37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

-$153,243 $69,427 $199,666 $991,079 $61,093

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)
Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices**Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching to**  **Electric Water Heater**  **Total Gas**

**Consumption with Fuel**  **Sw itching**  **(Dth) Change in** 

**Electric Consumption**  **Compared to Base Case**  **(MWh) Change in Gas** 

**Consumption Compared to Base Case (Dth)** 

0.95 2,992 **-3.1%** -1,584 -4,739 425,589 5,871 -121,942

Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost ($/Yr) **Change in Energy Cost**  **Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $0.1029
-$487,608 $4,043,096 $603,990 **-$554,455**

Gas Source Energy (Dth/Yr) Electricity

Source Energy (Dth/Yr) **Change in Source Energy**

**Compared to Base Case w/Fuel Sw** **itching (Dth/Yr)**
2.90 -46,910 463,892 58,106 **-74,810**

Gas CO2e emissions (Tons/Yr) Electricity

CO2e Emissions (Tons/Yr) **Change in CO2e Emissions**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching (Tons/Yr)** 
1,508.0

-3,249 28,437 4,024 **-4,124 High Efficiency** 

**Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**Gas CO2 Externalities Cost ($/Yr) Electricity CO2

Externalities Cost ($/Yr) **Change in CO2**

**Externalities Compared to Base Case w** **ith Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $37.00 -$120,202 $1,052,172 $148,892 **-$152,581**

### Mandatory

**Furnace Rule Change and Potential Unintended Consequences Impact of Fuel Sw** **itching on Residential Heating** Installation Contractors 

### Region **AL L**  **Number of Homes 2,243,397** 

**Base Case**

**Natural Gas Furnace Natural Gas**  **Furnace**

Efficiency: AFUE/HSPF/EF 80% 90% Annual consumption (input) of natural gas in Dekatherm (Dth) and electricity in kW h 1 52.0 46.2 % of homes impacted **32.3%** 100.0% Number of homes impacted 724,258 724,258 Total annual consumption. Natural gas in Dth & electrcity in MW H. 37,626,736 33,427,016

**Customer Operating Cost Impact**
Natural gas price in $/Dth and electricity in $/kW h $8.53 $8.53 Annual heating operating cost to residential customers 321,113,308 285,257,499

**Full Fuel Cy cle Source Energy**  **Impact**

Source Energy Factor 1.09 1.09 Total Source Energy Consumption (Dth) 41,013,142 36,435,447

**CO 2** **e Emissions Impact**

CO 2e Emissions: lbs/mmBtu for natural gas and lbs/MW H for electricity 147.0 147.0

Total CO 2e Emissions in Ton/yr. 2,514,150 2,233,532 **Site Energy**

**Consumption Impact - Residential Heating and Water Heating**  **High Efficiency Impact** **CO 2** **Externalities Impact**

CO 2Externalities Value ($/Tonne) $37.00 $37.00 Total Annual CO 2externalities Impact ($/Yr) 93,023,553 82,640,699

Units: 1 Dekatherm = 10 Therm 1 Dekatherm = 1 million Btu or 1 mmBtu 1 Tonne = 2,200 lbs (Metric Ton)
Assumptions: Furnace Installations from AHRI national data and RECS 2009 Survey Information Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com) Natural gas prices from AGA Marginal Billing Survey Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices CO 2externalities impact based on assumed trading price of $10/ton)

### DRA**FT 7/1/2014**

**Change w /o**  **Fuel Sw itching**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heater**  **Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes Sw** **itching to Electric Heat**  **Pump Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes w** **ith Natural Gas**  **Furnace Fraction of** 

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching**  **from Gas Water Heater**  100% 8.1 90% 0.62
-3.9 18,958 5,409 45.2 18.5

**3.2% 19.1%**  **77.8% -3.4%**  724,258 22,880 138,250 563,128 (24,693) -4,199,720 433,764 747,859 25,461,225 (456,823)

724,258

$8.54 $0.1253 $0.1171 $8.60 $6.40
(35,855,810) 54,363,152 87,605,426 218,934,285 (2,922,251)

1.09 3.34 3.22 1.09 1.09 (4,577,695) 4,938,621 8,217,494 27,752,735 (497,937)

147.0 2,127.7 1,985.8 147.0 147.0
(280,618) 419,512 675,034 1,701,273 (30,524) **High Efficiency**

**Impact High Efficiency**  **Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**$37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00 $37.00

(10,382,854) 15,521,945 24,976,264 62,947,091 (1,129,391)

Installations impacted and fuel switching behavior from AGA/APGA Fuel Switching Survey spreadsheet Energy Consumption, source energy conversion factors, and emission conversion factors from GTI Source Energy and Emissions Analysis Tool (www.cmictools.com)
Electricity prices from DOE 2011 Technical Support Document for Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners escalated to 2013 prices**Fraction of**

**Impacted Homes**  **Sw itching to**  **Electric Water Heater**  **Total Gas**

**Consumption with Fuel**  **Sw itching**  **(Dth) Change in** 

**Electric Consumption**  **Compared to Base Case**  **(MWh) Change in Gas** 

**Consumption Compared to Base Case (Dth)** 

0.95 3,537 **3.4%** 24,693 87,340 25,004,401 1,268,962 -12,622,334

Gas Cost ($/Yr) Electricity Cost ($/Yr) **Change in Energy Cost**  **Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $0.0871
7,610,872 $216,012,034 $149,579,451 **$44,478,176**

Gas Source Energy (Dth/Yr) Electricity

Source Energy (Dth/Yr) **Change in Source Energy**

**Compared to Base Case w/Fuel Sw** **itching (Dth/Yr)**
3.42 1,018,043 27,254,797 14,174,159 **415,814**

Gas CO2e emissions (Tons/Yr) Electricity

CO2e Emissions (Tons/Yr) **Change in CO2e Emissions**

**Compared to Base Case with Fuel Sw** **itching (Tons/Yr)** 
2,312.1

91,788 1,670,749 1,186,335 **342,933 High Efficiency** 

**Impacts w ith Fuel Sw** **itching**Gas CO2 Externalities Cost ($/Yr) Electricity CO2

Externalities Cost ($/Yr) **Change in CO2**

**Externalities Compared to Base Case w** **ith Fuel Sw** **itching ($/Yr)** $37.00 3,396,172 $61,817,700 $43,894,381 **$12,688,528**