Power System Modeling 

Wind-Generated Electr

2030

Maureen Hand and Nate Blair, National Renewable 

Mark Bolinger and Ryan Wiser, Lawrence Berkeley 

Richard O’Connell, Black and Veat

Tracy Hern and Bart Miller, Western Resourc

Presented at IEEE Power and Energy Society 

2008 General Meeting held July 20-24, 2008

Pittsburgh, PA

NREL/PR-500-44331
The Analytic Challeng

• Create technically and economically feas

estimates:

– Wind capacity in 2030 to produce 20% of proj

demand

– Geographic distribution of wind capacity– Transmission system expansion requirements– Direct electric system cost– Portfolio of national generation technologies in – Potential natural gas price reduction– Financial risk of future carbon regulation and a

emission

– Reduced water consumption
WinDS Model

(Win

d

Deployment

Systems Mod

A multi-regional, multi-time-period modgeneration capacity and transmission iexpansion in the U.S. electric sector.Designed to estimate market potential in the U.S. for the next 20 – 50 years utechnology development and policy scewww.nrel.gov/analysis/winds
Approach

• Use NREL’s Wind Energy Deployment System (Win

capacity and transmission infrastructure expansion 

• Prescribe annual energy generation from wind techn

2030

• Assume future cost and performance for convention

generation technologies

• Assume electric grid operation and expansion costs• Select the nationally cost-optimized use of wind reso

annual energy production requirements using WinD

– Optimizes use of different quality wind resources (Cla

load centers 

– Optimizes use of existing vs. new transmission lines

– Optimizes relative cost of land-based and offshore win

relation to load centers

– Optimizes balance of generation technologies without 

future policy changes (e.g. no carbon mitigation policy
WinDS Regions and Wind R

358 WinDS Regions

Wincell 

powwith
Wind Energy Supply C

Excludes PTC, includes transmission costs to access 10% transmission capacity within 500 miles of wind resource.
20% Wind Scenari

• 305 GW produces 1200 

TWh annually in 2030 (54 GW offshore)• About 100,000 3-MW machines• Annual installation from 3-5 GW/yr to over 15 GW/yr by 2018
Wind Energy Transmission i

Generation Technologies in 2

and without 20% Win
Generation Portfolio

0

100020003000400050006000

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2

Electricity Generated (TWh) 

20% 
Coal and Natural Gas Fuel 

% Reduction in 

Natural Gas 

Consumption

Natural Gas Price 

Reduction in 2030 

(2006$/MMBtu)

Present Value Benefits

(billion 2006$)

11% 0.6 - 1.5 86 - 214 
Avoided Carbon Diox

Emissions

Valued from $50 - $145 billion in Net Pres
Water Savings
Present Value

Direct Costs

(billion $2006)

Average Incremental

Levelized 

Cost of Wind

(2006$/MWh-Wind)

Average Incremental

Levelized 

Rate Impact

(2006$/MWh-Total)

$43 billion $8.6/MWh $0.6/MWh 

Direct Electric System 

20% Wind Scenario Costs 2% More
Conclusions

• Providing 20% of U.S. electricity from w

technically feasible

– Wind capacity in 46 states– Transmission expansion required

• Benefits include (but not limited to) red

– Carbon emission and risk of financial conse

future carbon regulation

– Natural gas prices– Water consumption

• Incremental cost of wind technology mo

compared to planned electric sector inv
Website (documentation and re

http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/