VISTAS 2018 Regional Haze

and ASIP 2009 PM2.5

Best and Final Projections

MANE-VU TSC Call

March 18, 2008
Best and Final Inventory 

Changes for 2009 and 2018

 Point EGU and non-EGU only

 Updates to EGU for consent decrees, changes 

to control assumptions from IPM v2.1.9

 BART controls for non-EGU known by Oct 2007

 Source specific corrections or controls 

 For 2009 only, incorporate MRPO Base M point 

source inventory 

 Important for nonattainment areas bordering OH, IN
VISTAS Point Source Emissions 

2018 Annual SO2

State BaseG2 B&F (G4) Delta

Alabama 249,075 239,154 -9,921

Florida 213,387 265,838 +52,451

Georgia 138,778 127,680 -10,914

2018 Point Source SO2 (Tons)

Georgia 138,778 127,680 -10,914

Kentucky 266,744 262,784 -3,960

Mississippi 41,824 40,888 -936

North Carolina 161,085 166,480 +5,395

South Carolina 146,851 147,787 +935

Tennessee 189,919 169,354 -20,565

Virginia 183,164 156,778 -26,386

West Virginia 168,128 167,901 -227

VISTAS Total 1,758,956 1,744,827 -14,129

Jan 31, 2008
CMAQ 2018g4a vs 2018g2b Method1 Prediction at VISTAS+ sites on W20% Days

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

220%

240%

Percent of target reduction achieved

2018g4a 12k

2018g2b 12k

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

C

O

H

U1

D

O

S

O1

G

R

S

M1

JA

RI1

LIG

O1

C

A

DI1

M

A

C

A1

S

HEN1

S

H

R

O1

SIP

S1

C

H

A

S1

EVER1O

KEF1

R

O

M

A1

S

A

M

A1

S

W

A

N1

B

RET1

B

RIG1

C

A

C

R1

HEGL1

MIN

G1

U

P

B

U1

Percent of target reduction achieved

VISTAS non-VISTAS
2018 Best and Final vs Base G2 Visibility Projections

Class I 

area

2000-04 

Baseline

Uniform 

Progress Base G2

Difference 

G2-Uniform

Best and 

Final

Difference 

BaF-G2

CHAS 25.75 22.31 21.85 -0.46 22.27 0.42

COHU 30.25 25.71 22.84 -2.87 22.80 -0.03

DOSO 29.04 24.69 21.64 -3.04 21.50 -0.14

EVER 22.30 19.92 20.65 0.73 20.76 0.11

GRSM 30.28 25.79 23.66 -2.13 23.50 -0.16

JARI 29.12 24.91 22.59 -2.32 22.36 -0.24

LIGO 28.77 24.67 21.98 -2.69 21.65 -0.33

MACA 31.37 26.64 25.56 -1.07 25.40 -0.17

OKEF 27.13 23.42 23.85 0.43 23.82 -0.03

ROMA 26.48 23.12 22.72 -0.40 22.65 -0.07

SAMA 26.31 22.89 22.89 0.00 23.01 0.12

SHEN 29.31 25.12 22.11 -3.01 21.93 -0.18

SHRO 28.66 24.65 22.11 -2.54 21.92 -0.18

SIPS 29.03 24.80 23.69 -1.11 23.53 -0.16

SWAN 24.71 21.64 20.37 -1.27 20.26 -0.12
State Draft Proposed Final

AL 11/16/07 3/10/08 May 2008

FL BART TBD Summer? 2008

GA April 2008 May 2008 Aug 2008

KY 12/17/07 2/28/08 May 2008

VISTAS States SIP Status

KY 12/17/07 2/28/08 May 2008

MS 12/11/07 Apr 2008 Jun 2008

NC 8/2/07 10/12/07 12/17/07

SC 9/26/07 11/09/07 12/22/07

TN 10/11/07 Nov 07; 2/21/08 Apr 2008

VA 10/1/07 Jul 2008 Sep 2008

WV 9/21/07 Nov 07; May 08 July 2008
VISTAS Questions

 ??
ASIP 2009 Best and Final (Base G4) 

PM2.5 Design Value Projections

 2009 Best and Final (Base G4) compared 

to 2002 Base G2

 PM2.5 Design Value (DV) Projections using 

relative response factors (RRFs):

 SANDWICH Spreadsheet Approach same as 

used for 2009 Base G2 (G4a_Excel)

 EPA beta MATS tool (Jan 10, 2008 version) 

(G4a_MATS)
ASIP Point Source Emissions

State Base G2

Best and 

Final

Difference 

BaF - G2

AL 479,297 479,297 0

FL 251,565 354,482 102,917

GA 471,436 462,666 -8,769

2009 Annual SO2

GA 471,436 462,666 -8,769

KY 326,611 308,087 -18,524

MS 102,143 102,210 67

NC 284,822 284,823 0

SC 172,933 176,315 3,382

TN 326,088 320,374 -5,714

VA 255,672 232,816 -22,856

WV 333,463 324,550 -8,913

Total 3,004,030 3,045,620 41,589
 Bottomline, 2009 emissions change slightly between 

Base G2 and Best and Final (except FL increases)

 Consent decrees, local sources

Bottomline, Best and Final results in slight decreases 

ASIP 2009 Best and Final (Base G4) 

PM2.5 Design Value Projections

 Bottomline, Best and Final results in slight decreases 

(0.0-0.1 g/m3) in PM2.5 for most states 

 Except WV, where 2009 Best and Final shows all 

monitors in attainment (better than Base G2)

 Except FL, where PM2.5 increases due to increased 

SO2, still low PM2.5 (mostly <10 g/m3)
Georgia 12km 2009 Projected DVF by G4a_EXCEL(Left) and

G4a_MATS (Middle) andG2a_EXCEL (Right)

10

12

14

16

18

u

g/m

3

PBW

NH4

Crustal

EC

0

2

4

6

8

Bibb-0007Bibb-0012

Chatham-0017Chatham-0091

Clarke-0001

Clayton-0091

Cobb-0003Cobb-0004

DeKalb-0002DeKalb-2001

Dougherty-0007

Floyd-0005

Fulton-0032Fulton-0039

Glynn-0006

G

winnett-0002

Hall-0003

Houston-0001

Lowndes-0003

Muscogee-0001Muscogee-0008Muscogee-0011

Paulding-0003

Richmond-0005Richmond-0091

Walker-0002

WashingtonWilkinson-0001

Georgia

u

g/m

3

EC

OC

NO3

SO4

blank
West Virginia 12km 2009 Projected DVF by G4a_EXCEL(Left) and

G4a_MATS (Middle) andG2a_EXCEL (Right)

10

12

14

16

18

u

g/m

3

PBW

NH4

Crustal

EC

0

2

4

6

8

Berkeley-0003

Brooke-0005

Cabell-0006

Hancock-0011Hancock-1004

Harrison-0003

Kanawha-0010Kanawha-1005

Marion-0006

Marshall-1002

Mercer-0002

Monongalia-0003

Ohio-0010

Raleigh-0002

Sum

mers-0001

Wood-1002

West Virginia

u

g/m

3

EC

OC

NO3

SO4

blank
Design Values for 2002 Baseline and 2009 Best and Final 

for Selected Monitors in Nonattainment Areas

State County 2002 Baseline DVC 2009 B&F DVF State County 2002 Baseline DVC 2009 B&F DVF

AL Jefferson 18.4 17.2 NC Catawba 15.6 13.0

AL Jefferson 15.0 13.8 NC Davidson 16.0 13.3

AL Jefferson 17.1 15.8 NC Guilford 0.0 0.0

AL Jefferson 15.1 13.8 TN Hamilton 16.3 14.4

DC D. Columbia 15.7 13.0 TN Hamilton 15.3 13.6

DC D. Columbia 15.1 12.5 TN Knox 16.0 13.9

GA Clayton 16.5 14.9 TN Knox 16.7 14.6

GA Cobb 16.3 14.6 TN Knox 16.0 13.9

GA DeKalb 15.9 14.4 WV Berkeley 16.2 13.6

GA DeKalb 16.2 14.4 WV Brooke 16.7 13.8

GA Fulton 16.5 14.9 WV Cabell 16.5 14.1

GA Fulton 18.3 16.6 WV Hancock 15.8 13.1

GA Gwinnett 16.1 14.3 WV Hancock 17.3 14.2

GA Richmond 15.6 13.8 WV Kanawha 15.4 13.2

GA Walker 15.7 13.9 WV Kanawha 17.1 14.8

KY Fayette 15.6 13.4 WV Marion 15.3 13.0

KY Jefferson 16.6 14.8 WV Marshall 15.6 13.4

KY Jefferson 16.1 14.2 WV Wood 16.1 14.0

KY Jefferson 15.4 13.6
ASIP Questions

 ??