Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations

at Long Lost Lake, 1939–2004, White Earth Indian

Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota

Scientific Investigations Report 2005–5181

Prepared in cooperation with the White Earth Band of Chippewa Indians

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level

Fluctuations at Long Lost Lake, 1939–2004, 

White Earth Indian Reservation,

Clearwater County, Minnesota

By Victoria G. Christensen and Andrea L. Bergman

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Prepared in cooperation with the White Earth Band of Chippewa Indians

Scientific Investigations Report 2005–5181
U.S. Department of the Interior

Gale A. Norton, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey

P. Patrick Leahy, Acting Director

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2005

For sale by U.S. Geological Survey, Information Services

Box 25286, Denver Federal Center

Denver, CO 80225

For more information about the USGS and its products:

Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS

World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/

Any use of trade, product, or firm names in this publication is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply 

endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to

reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report.

Suggested citation:

Christensen, V.G., and Bergman, A.L., 2005, Hydrologic conditions and lake-level fluctuations at Long Lost Lake, 

1939–2004, White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific

Investigations Report 2005–5181, 18 p.

Additional earth science information is available on the Internet via the World Wide Web.

You may connect to the U.S. Geological Survey Water Science Center of Minnesota Home Page using the Universal

Resource Locator (URL) at http://mn.usgs.gov.
 iii

Contents

Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

Purpose and Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4

Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4

Description of Study Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4

Previous Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

Hydrologic Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

Closed-Basin Lakes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

Aerial Photography in Landscape Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6

Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6

Ground-Water Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7

Lake Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7

Pond and Wetland Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7

Lake Synoptic Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7

Historical Lake Levels and Climate Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

Aerial Photograph Collection, Rectification, and Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

Data Processing and Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

Lakeshore Delineation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

Lake Level and Volume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

Climate and Precipitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11

Recent Surface- and Ground-Water Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11

Synoptic Lake Survey Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13

Aerial Photography for Measuring Historic Lake-Level Fluctuations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13

Relation of Historical Lake Levels and Volume to Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17

Figures

1. Map showing location of Long Lost Lake watershed, lake gages, observation 

wells, wetlands, and ponds, White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater 

County, Minnesota . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2

2. Map showing total precipitation above normal, January 1, 1991, to August 16, 1999, 

and location of weather stations surrounding Long Lost Lake, White Earth

Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3

3. Profile comparison of bathymetric map, National Elevation Dataset (NED)

digital elevation model (DEM), and model DEM for Long Lost Lake,

White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9

4. Graph showing lake-level readings from Long Lost Lake, August 2003 through 

December 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
iv 

5. Historical aerial photographs of Long Lost Lake, (a) 1939 and (b) 2001, and (c) map

showing changes in the 1939 and 2001 lake areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

6. Graph showing lake volume estimated from digitized and photographic 

lakeshore boundary grids, compared to cumulative precipitation, Long 

Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota. . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Tables

1. Selected information for observation wells located near Long Lost Lake,

White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

2. Aerial photograph information and registration error per photograph, Long

Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

3. Water-level altitudes for observation wells surrounding Long Lost Lake, White

Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota, 2002–2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

4. Pond and wetland levels near Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation,

Clearwater County, Minnesota, July 2004. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

5. Changes in surface area, water-level altitude, and volume, Long Lost Lake,

White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
 v

Conversion Factors and Datum

Multiply By To obtain

Length

centimeter (cm) 0.3937 inch (in.)

meter (m) 3.281 foot (ft)

kilometer (km) 0.6214 mile (mi) 

Area

hectare (ha) 2.471 acre

square kilometer (km2) 0.3861 square mile (mi2)

Volume

cubic hectometer (hm3) 810.7 acre-foot (acre-ft)

Temperature in degrees Celsius (°C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (°F) as follows:

°F = (1.8 x °C) + 32

Vertical coordinate information is referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 

(NAVD 88).

Horizontal coordinate information is referenced to the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD 83).

Altitude, as used in this report, refers to distance above the vertical datum.

Specific conductance is given in microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius (μS/cm at 

25°C).

Concentrations of chemical constituents in water are given either in milligrams per liter (mg/L) or 

micrograms per liter (μg/L).

NOTE TO USGS USERS: Use of hectare (ha) as an alternative name for square hectometer (hm2) 

is restricted to the measurement of small land or water areas. Use of liter (L) as a special name 

for cubic decimeter (dm3

) is restricted to the measurement of liquids and gases. No prefix other 

than milli should be used with liter. Metric ton (t) as a name for megagram (Mg) should be 

restricted to commercial usage, and no prefixes should be used with it.
Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations

at Long Lost Lake, 1939–2004, White Earth Indian 

Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota

By Victoria G. Christensen and Andrea L. Bergman

Abstract

Long Lost Lake, a closed-basin lake in Clearwater County, 

Minnesota, has had a substantial rise in lake level since 1990. 

The increased level and surface area of the lake has led to the 

inundation of nearby homes and roads. The U.S. Geological 

Survey, in cooperation with the White Earth Band of Chippewa 

Indians, conducted a study to document the historical lake-level 

fluctuations, to investigate reasons for hydrologic change, and 

to develop a general understanding of the hydrology of lakes 

that have had rapid changes in lake level. 

Lake levels were recorded continuously from August 

2003 through December 2004. The purpose was to establish a 

temporal, detailed record of lake levels and to connect this 

record to precipitation and ground-water-level data. A longterm record is critical to understanding the relation between 

surface water and ground water. This is especially true for 

closed-basin lakes. Between August 2003 and December 2004, 

the lake level generally declined. The highest lake altitude was 

492.58 meters above NAVD 88 on August 5, 2003, and the low 

of 492.11 meters above NAVD 88 occurred on August 29, 

2004.

Results of water-level measurements in 5 observation 

wells and 14 wetlands and ponds show that the water-table level 

is substantially higher on the north side of the lake than the lake 

level, providing the head pressure necessary for ground-water 

discharge into Long Lost Lake. In contrast, on the south and 

east sides of the lake, water-table levels are similar to the lake 

level. This indicates a general north-northwest to south-southeast ground-water flow direction. Results of a synoptic survey 

of lake temperature and other measurements supported the 

direction of water inflow and outflow.

Aerial photography and a geographic information system 

were used to construct a historical lake record from 1939 to 

2001. Lake-level increases match similar increases in precipitation, indicating a strong link between the two. Results show that 

lake-level increases in Long Lost Lake appear to primarily be 

due to natural rather than anthropogenic effects. 

Introduction

Long Lost Lake is an approximately 200-ha closed-basin 

lake within the boundaries of the White Earth Indian Reservation in southeastern Clearwater County, northwestern Minnesota (fig. 1). A closed-basin lake (sometimes called a seepage 

lake) has no surface-water inflows or outflows and, therefore, 

receives most of its inflow from ground water and precipitation. 

The lake is near the headwaters of the Mississippi River, 

approximately 10 km west of Lake Itasca (fig. 2), the source of 

the Mississippi River. The lake level of Long Lost Lake has 

risen substantially since about 1990. Since the establishment of 

a lake gage in 1992 by the Minnesota Department of Natural 

Resources (MNDNR), the lake level has risen about 4.0 m. 

Since 1992, the lowest recorded lake altitude was 489.0 m 

above NAVD 88 during May 1993, and the highest was 

493.1 m above NAVD 88 during July 2002 (Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, 2003). Twelve Tribal residences, 

several roads, and about 20 ha of Tribal lands are submerged. 

Thirty Tribal members have been displaced from their homes

due to increases in the lake level. The remote location, sparse 

population within the watershed, and limited access to much of 

the watershed contribute to a lack of information about the 

hydrology of the lake. There was concern that the improvement 

of County Highway 39 along the south and east side of the lake 

may have contributed to the rise in lake level by restricting 

ground-water outflow from the lake. 

Several forces influence the activity and processes of a 

lake and its ecological systems. Precipitation, climate, and 

ground-water dynamics are just a few of the many factors that 

influence lake level. These factors become particularly important when dealing with closed-basin lakes. There have been 

many studies that use various methods for measuring and quantifying relations between lake level, lake volume, and climate 

change. 
T

143

N

T

144

N

T

142

N

R 38 W R 37 W

CLEARWATER

BECKER

CLEARWATER

BECKER

McKenzie 

Scoop Lake

Lake

Siren 

Lake

Sandback 

Lake

Cesar 

Lake

Andrews Lake Chloupek 

Lake

Shuckhart 

Lake

Big Rock 

Lake

Glanders 

Lake

Long Lost Lake

Frellsen 

Lake

Cox 

Lake

Little 

Rock 

Lake

Stassen 

Lake

West 

Cranberry 

Lake East 

Cranberry 

Lake

Hoot Owl 

Lake Pickerel 

Lake

Pine 

Island 

Lake

Lake of the Valley (Bad Medicine Lake)

Juggler 

Lake

Leuthi 

Lake

State Highway 113

County Highway 39

1

2

3

4 5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13 14

620655

620654

685804

620652

620651

05243300 05243300 5243300

MINNESOT MINNESOT INNESOTA

Study Area

95o30' 95o27'30" 95o25' 95o22'30"

47o15'

47o12'30"

47o10'

47o07'30"

Base from U.S. Geological Survey digital data,

1:100,000, 1993, US Albers Equal Area Projection,

standard parallels 29o30' and 45o30'

central meridian -96o

1 2 MILES

0 1 2 KILOMETERS

0

EXPLANATION

U.S. Geological Survey lake gage

 (number is site identifier)

Pond/wetland location

 (number is site identifier)

Well location

 (number is site identifier)

Wetlands

Normal watershed boundary

High water watershed boundary

Minneaota Department of 

 Natural Resources lake gage

13

620651

05243300 05243300 5243300

2 Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations at Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Minnesota

Figure 1. Long Lost Lake watershed, lake gages, observation wells, wetlands, and ponds, White Earth Indian Reservation, 

Clearwater County, Minnesota.
POLK

NORMAN MAHNOMEN

CLEARWATER BELTRAMI

HUBBARD

BECKER

2

10

59

59

71

71

71

200

9

113

34

92

164

Itasca - Itasca - 

University of sity of 

Minnesota Minnesota

214106

Itasca - 

University of 

Minnesota

214106

Bemidji 

Municipal Municipal

Airport 

210643

Bemidji 

Municipal

Airport 

210643

Detroit Lakes it Lakes

212142

Detroit Lakes

212142

Park Rapids

216360

Park Rapids

216360

Mahnomen Mahnomen

215012

Mahnomen

215012 Study A Study Area

Base from U.S. Geological Survey digital data,

1:100,000, 1993, US Albers Equal Area Projection,

standard parallels 29o30' and 45o30'

central meridian -96o

Long

Lost

Lake

Lake

Itasca

Total Precipitation Above or Below (-) 

Normal in inches Jan. 1, 1991, to 

Aug. 16, 1999

50

30

20

15

10

5

-5

-10

-15

-20

-30

-50

Source: Minnesota State Climatology Office

Department of Natural Resources

Study Area

5 10 15 20 MILES

0 5 10 15 20 KILOMETERS

0

215012

Wetlands

Lakes

Weather station operated

 by National Oceanic and

 Atmospheric Administration

 and number

EXPLANATION

47o

47o30'

96o 95o30' 95o

Introduction 3

Figure 2. Total precipitation above normal, January 1, 1991, to August 16, 1999, and location of weather stations surrounding Long Lost 

Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota.

Several other lakes in the region have had an increase in 

lake level during the 1980s and 1990s. These include lakes connected to streams and rivers, as well as closed-basin lakes. 

Because closed-basin lakes are more susceptible to factors such 

as climate, these lakes have been the topic of recent studies. The 

lake level at Devils Lake in North Dakota rose about 7.5 m 

between 1993 and 1999 (Wiche, Vecchia, Osborne, Wood, and 

Fay, 2000). Williams Lake and Big Marine Lake in Minnesota 

also had lake-level increases in the 1980s (Winter, 1997; 

Brown, 1985). At Big Marine Lake, residential development 

largely occurred during periods of low lake levels. Subsequently, residential damage due to flooding occurred later, 

when precipitation increased. 

Climate and precipitation change is thought to be a major 

contributor to the fluctuation in levels for many lakes in the 

region. Investigations into climate change, such as Karl and 

Knight (1998), indicate an overall increase in precipitation 

throughout the 20th century. This increase includes frequency of 

heavy precipitation events as well as total annual precipitation.

An understanding of similarities and differences in lakelevel changes in Long Lost Lake and in nearby lakes is necessary to understand hydrologic changes in Long Lost Lake. In 

addition, understanding conditions that affect the lake is important to the management of Tribal resources and for the protection of Tribal treaty rights. To address these needs, a study of 

the hydrologic conditions and lake-level fluctuations at Long 

Lost Lake was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey 

(USGS) in cooperation with the White Earth Band of Chippewa 

Indians. The purpose of this study was to document historical 

lake-level fluctuations of Long Lost Lake, to determine the 

cause and effect relations that have resulted in the increased 

lake level, and to develop a general understanding of the 

hydrology of lakes that have had rapid changes in lake levels.

An understanding of cause and effect relations in closedbasin lakes is an important component in addressing concerns 

about continued increases in lake level. The methods used in 

this study could be used at other sites in Minnesota and the 

Nation to document historical conditions that have resulted in 

rising lake levels. The results of this study can be used to gain 

an understanding of the issues involved and the problems associated with rapid changes in lake levels. This information will 

help in the lake and watershed decisions that are needed to 

address the problem.
4 Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations at Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Minnesota

Purpose and Scope

The purpose of this report is to describe the hydrologic 

conditions and lake-level fluctuations at Long Lost Lake during 

1939–2004. Water levels in five observation wells were monitored from October 2003 to December 2004, and water levels at 

14 ponds and wetlands were measured in July 2004. Lake levels 

were measured continuously from August 2003 through 

December 2004. Additionally, a synoptic survey of temperature, specific conductance, pH, and dissolved-oxygen measurements was made along the shoreline of Long Lost Lake in July 

2004. The water-level, lake-level, and synoptic survey data 

were used to describe hydrologic conditions.

Historical lake-level fluctuations were evaluated using 

aerial photography available from 1939 to 2001. Temperature 

and precipitation data that were compiled for the study were 

used to provide insights about whether the water-level fluctuations at Long Lost Lake are due to natural or anthropogenic 

effects.

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the volunteers, Becky Bergerson and 

Greg Scherzer, from the Long Lost Lake Association. Their 

measurement of ground-water levels provided this investigation 

with a better understanding of ground-water flow and direction. 

Their readiness to share data and assist with the study was 

appreciated. 

Description of Study Area

The hydrologic setting of the study area surrounding Long 

Lost Lake (fig. 1) is not well understood due to the remote location, sparse population, limited lake access, and the hummocky 

and internally drained relief around the lake. Little information 

is available about the hydrology and hydrogeology of the watershed and about precipitation, lake level, ground-water levels, or 

ground-water recharge. Only anecdotal information is available 

about the level of Long Lost Lake prior to 1992, and about 

changes in the watershed that may have contributed to the 

increase in the level of Long Lost Lake. 

Long Lost Lake is located within the Quaternary-age 

Itasca Glacial Moraine Complex, a massive accumulation of 

glacially deposited sediment with local relief of several hundred 

feet (Kanuit, 1996). The moraine, an east-west trending ice 

stagnation complex in north-central Minnesota, is approximately 130 km long and 30–50 km wide. The landscape of the 

moraine is heterogeneous. The moraine is topographically high 

and hummocky with many small lakes and hills typical of a 

glacial stagnation complex. The area is heavily dissected by 

tunnel valleys filled with glacial drift. Tunnel valleys were 

formed when meltwater was drained through long tunnels 

beneath the glaciers (Ojakangas and Matsch, 1982). Some 

tunnel valleys can provide a route for ground-water flow due to 

high permeability. Because of the relatively high topographic 

relief and broad geographic extent of the moraine, tunnel 

valleys may be a source of recharge for regional ground-water 

flow. The glacial deposits contain a surficial aquifer that is 

hydraulically connected to Long Lost Lake and to wetlands and 

ponds in the study area.

Early references included Long Lost Lake as part of the 

Crow Wing River watershed (U.S. Geological Survey, 1974); 

however, a recent re-classification of the area includes Long 

Lost Lake as part of the Mississippi River watershed (Chris 

Sanocki, U.S. Geological Survey, oral commun.). The contributing area for the lake is relatively small, about 13 km2

(Bergman, 2004). 

Potential sources of contamination, such as septic systems, 

may be especially important to water-quality issues because of 

the small contributing area. In 1993, the summer mean phosphorus concentration was 13 micrograms per liter (μg/L) 

(Paakh and Heiskary, 1994), indicating that the lake was 

mesotrophic. Changes in lake levels can have a substantial 

effect on water quality and eutrophication (Christensen and 

others, 2004). In addition, when the water table is high, the contributing drainage area increases to approximately 25 km2

(Bergman, 2004), which may increase the number of potential 

sources of nutrients and other water-quality constituents within 

the watershed.

The land in the study area is primarily reserved for Tribal 

hunting and fishing, and for forestry and recreation. The watershed is 78 percent forest and 15 percent water (Paakh and 

Heiskary, 1994). Many of the homes surrounding Long Lost 

Lake are seasonal cabins occupied only during the summer. 

Additionally, the lake is a fishing destination with two public 

access points and a parking facility. These areas are now partially submerged. At one location boaters must access the lake 

directly from the entrance road, and the other access point is 

closed until the lake level recedes (Paakh and Heiskary, 1994). 

To reduce the effects of lake activity on the surrounding environment, a speed limit of 10 miles per hour (16.1 kilometers per 

hour) has been imposed across the entire lake. 

The climate in the study area is characterized as humid 

continental with cool summers. Mean annual precipitation is 

about 69 cm (Midwest Regional Climate Center, 2003). Mean 

annual temperature is 2.8°C, mean summer temperature is 

18°C, and mean winter temperature is about -14°C. Evaporation 

data are not available for the Long Lost Lake watershed; however, mean annual evapotranspiration for the nearby Mississippi headwaters area has been estimated to be about 51 cm per 

year based on 80 years of climatological data (data from the 

Minnesota Climatology Office). Williams Lake, which is about 

50 km to the southeast in neighboring Hubbard County, has an 

evapotranspiration rate of almost 50 cm per year (Winter, 

1997). Evaporation rate is a factor that influences lake level. 

Evaporation rates decrease during cool wet periods and increase 

during warm dry periods. 
Previous Studies 5

Previous Studies

Although no previous water-level studies have been conducted in the Long Lost Lake area, research from other locations provides relevant background information for studying 

lake-level fluctuations. This section provides examples of previous studies with relevance to creating historical records of 

hydrologic changes, describing studies of closed-basin lakes in 

the vicinity of Long Lost Lake, and using aerial photography to 

understand landscape change.

Hydrologic Change

To construct a historical record of lake level, it was important to first understand hydrologic conditions that might lead to 

changes in lake level as well as other methods used by researchers to track changes. Jones and others (2001) studied lake levels 

at three lakes in Australia that were falling at a rapid rate, and 

found that climate change and its influence on precipitation/

evaporation ratios was the dominant factor in explaining lakelevel change in closed-basin lakes. Land-use change was not a 

significant contributor to lake-level change. Although the historical change in lake levels was modeled, Jones and others 

(2001) did not use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) or 

aerial photography as tools in their investigation.

A study by Noe-Nygaard and Heiberg (2001) looked at 

climate and base-flow change as reasons for the rising water 

level of a lake in Denmark. Using sediment cores, the 

researchers created a historical record of the lake in a geologic 

timeframe. Increased sedimentation and ground-water levels 

were attributed to climate change. These changes also were 

correlated with lake-level rise. Although these findings are 

relevant to the general behavior of lake systems, the timeframe 

is too broad to apply to Long Lost Lake.

Closed-Basin Lakes

In many lakes, the dominant source of inflow and outflow 

is from streams. In closed-basin lakes, water is replaced only by 

ground-water discharge or precipitation. Inputs from ground 

water require that the water table is higher than the lake level to 

achieve head pressure (Wetzel, 2001). Changes in the levels of 

surrounding water tables or in the lake level can alter flow into 

and out of a closed-basin lake. Ground-water inflow rates to 

lakes are more sensitive to seasonal variations than are outflow 

rates (Krabbenhoft and others, 1990). In some cases, water 

losses occur in the deeper parts of a lake, but this water must 

travel through sediments, which reduces the amount of water 

lost compared to the water entering the lake through the littoral 

zone (Wetzel, 2001).

Several closed-basin lakes in the vicinity of Long Lost 

Lake have been studied. The USGS conducted a study of Devils 

Lake in North Dakota, which also had a substantial increase in 

lake level in the 1990s. Devils Lake is located within the Red 

River of the North watershed at approximately the same latitude 

as Long Lost Lake. Although larger and more populated than 

Long Lost Lake, it has similar temperature and precipitation 

conditions. The level of Devils Lake rose about 7.5 m between 

1993 and 1999 (Wiche, Vecchia, Osborne, Wood, and Fay, 

2000), yet is still approximately 4.0 m below its natural spill 

altitude to the Sheyenne River (a tributary to the Red River of 

the North). The rise and fall of the water level at Devils Lake 

also has contributed to water-quality concerns (Wiche, 1998). 

About 2,000 km2

 of surrounding land have been flooded, which 

exacerbates erosion problems around the lake. Emergency outlets and a diversion are currently (2005) under construction to 

alleviate some of the current and potential flooding and waterquality issues. 

Temperature and precipitation changes were thought to be 

a major contributor to the lake-level changes at Devils Lake. A 

drought in the late 1980s led to a drop in lake level; this was 

followed by above-normal precipitation during the 1990s, 

which coincides with the most recent rise in the level of Devils 

Lake. This rise is important because of the damage caused by 

rising waters. There is geologic evidence that a similar lakelevel rise occurred possibly twice within the past 4,000 years 

(Wiche, Vecchia, Osborne, and Fay, 2000). Radiocarbon dating 

of organic matter and sediments from surrounding beaches and 

soils were used to create a historical record for the early 1800s 

and before (Wiche, Vecchia, Osborne, Wood, and Fay, 2000). 

Wiche, Vecchia, Osborne, Wood, and Fay (2000) and 

Todhunter and Rundquist (2003) used lake measurements combined with satellite imagery. Although satellite imagery is a 

valuable resource in observing landscape change, the available 

resolution is too coarse for measurements of Long Lost Lake, 

which is much smaller than Devils Lake.

Williams Lake in northern Minnesota also is a wellstudied closed-basin lake (Winter, 1997). Williams Lake is 

located in the upper end of the Shingobee River watershed and 

is situated in poorly sorted glacial drift. Environmental isotopes 

and sediment cores were used to determine hydrologic budgets 

and historical lake-level fluctuations. Sediment cores indicated 

that the lake level has fluctuated at least 6 m in response to 

climatic changes recorded in the lake sediments. Rosenberry 

(1998) concluded that a lake having no surface-water inflow or 

outlet is much more susceptible to changes in climate, even 

when the lake is well connected to ground water. It only takes 

about 3 years to replace all the water in Williams Lake (Rosenberry, 1998), despite having no surface water inflows or outlet.

Big Marine Lake in Washington County, Minnesota, does 

not have a surface-water inlet, and the altitude of the outlet is 

higher than the altitude of lake-shore properties. Considerable 

flooding of lake-shore properties occurred in the 1980s; the residential development took place during periods of relatively 

low lake levels in the 1950s and 1960s (Brown, 1985). Longterm trends in annual precipitation indicate that recharge has 

been increasing since the 1940s, and this corresponds to rises in 

lake levels. 
6 Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations at Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Minnesota

Aerial Photography in Landscape Change

Aerial photography is an excellent resource for viewing 

the past and for monitoring temporal change in landscapes. 

Availability, high resolution, and low cost are reasons for using 

aerial photography as a tool for monitoring landscape changes. 

Aerial photography as a method for interpreting and analyzing 

geographic phenomena has gone through great advancements in 

the past half century. The technology available for processing 

aerial photographs has advanced from manual practices using 

stereoscopes to digital-processing methods available with 

advanced GIS software (Jensen, 1986). Despite these advances, 

an understanding of fundamental concepts using aerial photography for any purpose is necessary to apply these tools. Early 

works by Stone (1964) and Estes (1966) emphasized the value 

of using aerial photography as an additional tool for researchers. 

However, both authors stressed that aerial photographs should 

not be a substitute for field work, analog map interpretation, or 

other source material. These articles are nearly 40 years old, 

but they are similar to some literature written within the past 

10 years (Smith, 1995; Baltsavias, 1996; Brostuen and Cox, 

2000; Grip and others, 2000; Mayfield, 2000). Many fundamental concepts in aerial photograph processing and interpretation 

have not changed despite technological advances. Some of 

those important concepts described in the articles include 

obtaining appropriate coverage of the study area, becoming 

familiar with the quality of the images available, understanding 

rectification techniques, and learning the skills required for 

interpreting objects in the images. 

The literature focuses on techniques and errors when processing aerial photography. Aerial surveys generate stereo-pair 

photography. This means that flight lines are flown such that the 

photographs have 60 percent overlap between images within 

one flight path as well as 20 percent overlap with images from 

adjacent flight paths. As a photograph is taken, only the ground 

surface at the center of the photograph directly below the 

camera is true to scale, and features become distorted towards 

the edge of the image. The overlap between images allows for 

the correction of these distortions when the photographs are 

viewed with a stereoscope. Ground-control points, identified 

from points of known locations, serve as the key to rectifying 

the images. Using the control points with elevation information 

allows researchers to rectify the images and use them to make 

direct measurements of landscape change.

Technological advances in photograph rectification have 

increased the capacity with which aerial photographs can be 

used. From serving as a map background to a source for precise 

measurements, aerial photography provides a unique perspective of the landscape and is an excellent resource for monitoring 

temporal changes. 

Some studies used aerial photography as the sole data 

source for historical observation. To monitor landslide evolution, Casson and others (2003) used aerial photography and a 

digital elevation model (DEM) to track landslide movement 

and average velocity. These authors found that other imagery 

sources, such as remotely-sensed images, were not at an 

appropriate spatial resolution for their study. Reinfelds (1997) 

and Mount and others (2003) used aerial photography for 

measuring bankfull widths in streams by looking at horizontal 

changes at the water-land interface. These studies did not use 

other sources of imagery or spatial data. 

Several studies have used aerial photography as a primary 

source for measuring landscape change (specifically shoreline 

dynamics), and abundant literature is available on monitoring 

the horizontal movement of landscape features. Byrnes and 

others (1995) studied shoreline change along the Louisiana 

coastline and developed a shoreline-change database using historical aerial photographs and global positioning system (GPS) 

coordinates. Using GPS coordinates in addition to aerial photographs provided these authors with more research options. 

Other resources that have been used with aerial photography 

include remotely sensed imagery (Hess and others, 1995) and 

digital photography and video (Livingstone and others, 1999). 

Similarly, Palandro and others (2003) used historical aerial 

photography and high-resolution Ikonos satellite imagery to 

study coral-reef changes. This study also focused on horizontal 

change and had the advantage of color photography and satellite 

imagery. In each of these studies, aerial photography provided 

a useful method for constructing historical records of shoreline 

change.

Although much of the literature shows promise for using 

aerial photography as a method for reconstructing historical 

records and for making temporal-change measurements, none 

of these studies have dealt specifically with lake levels and volume. Most studies focus on the horizontal movement or change 

of features. All the studies similarly identify the problem of 

photographic coverage and rectification as a substantial portion 

of their methodology. The literature supports the use of aerial 

photography and that information has been applied to Long 

Lost Lake and the creation of its historical record in this report.

Methods

Climatological changes and anthropogenic modifications 

within the Long Lost Lake watershed were considered as potential factors related to increased lake level. Addressing these 

factors required collection and interpretation of data on the 

hydrologic setting of the watershed and changes in climate, lake 

level, and ground-water levels. A monitoring network was 

established to understand the hydrologic setting and hydrologic 

budget of the lake relative to other lakes in the area. The initial 

hypotheses were that lake-level changes in Long Lost Lake may 

be caused by above-normal precipitation, climate change, landuse change, or changes in ground-water response. As a closedbasin lake, Long Lost Lake has no natural outlet and would be 

particularly sensitive to changes in any or all of these factors.

Information was collected and analyzed to assess historical 

changes in lake levels and to assess factors that may have contributed to these changes in Long Lost Lake and nearby lakes. 

These initial efforts also provided preliminary information 

about the hydrologic setting of Long Lost Lake.
Methods 7

Ground-Water Levels

Five observation wells were drilled into the surficial aquifer in the area surrounding Long Lost Lake (fig. 1) in September 

2002. The locations of the wells were determined using a GPS 

device that has a horizontal accuracy of about 6 m. Altitudes of 

the wells were determined using techniques described by 

Kennedy (1990). These wells were monitored approximately 

monthly from October 2003 through December 2004 by volunteers from the Long Lost Lake Association using a steel tape, 

and verified quarterly using an electronic tape by USGS personnel. Selected information for these wells is presented in table 1. 

Additional data on these wells can be accessed on the World 

Wide Web at URL http://waterdata.usgs.gov.

Lake Level

Reliable data about lake level was essential for this study. 

The USGS installed an automatic recorder on Long Lost Lake 

in July 2003 (station 05243300). Water level was recorded from 

August 2003 through December 2004 using methods described 

in Buchanan and Somers (1968). The automatic recorder was 

serviced quarterly. Water-level data are available in Mitton and 

others (2005). The lake also was surveyed using differential 

GPS during July 2004 to get an altitude to use as the datum to 

relate lake level to levels of surrounding ponds, wetlands, and 

observation wells. 

Pond and Wetland Levels

Fourteen ponds and wetlands (fig. 1) near Long Lost Lake 

were surveyed on July 7 and 8, 2004, to determine water levels. 

These ponds and wetlands may be hydraulically connected to 

the water table. By measuring the water level of these ponds and 

wetlands, it was possible to get a better understanding of the 

relation to adjacent ground-water levels and direction of 

ground-water flow. Two GPS devices were used to establish an 

altitude using a method known as differential GPS to reduce 

error (Chivers, 2003). This is a method whereby one GPS 

receiver, the base station, is located on a precisely known location and altitude (for this study, well number 620651). The 

known altitude was constantly compared to that given by the 

GPS receiver. The difference was applied to the data recorded 

by the second GPS receiver (located at the pond or wetland). 

Greater accuracy was obtained (standard deviation of 0.009–

0.152 m) by using differential GPS over using a single GPS 

device alone. Three sites were measured more than once during 

the 2-day period. For these three sites, the altitude measurement 

with the smallest standard deviation was reported. 

Lake Synoptic Survey

During July 2004, a synoptic survey of Long Lost Lake 

was conducted to help determine the direction of ground-water 

flow and areas of ground-water recharge to the lake. A multiprobe sonde was used to record water temperature and other 

field measurements (specific conductance, pH, and dissolved 

oxygen). Measurements were made at 45 locations approximately evenly spaced along the lake perimeter. The latitude and 

longitude of each measuring point was determined with a GPS 

device (with an accuracy of about 6 m) and recorded. These 

latitudes and longitudes were then used to plot the measurements on a map. Contour lines were generated using the Inverse 

Distance Weighting (IDW) method (Lam, 1983). This method 

assumes that each data point has local influence that diminishes 

with distance. These contour maps are not presented in this 

report, but are on file at the USGS Minnesota Water Science 

Center in Mounds View, Minnesota. Data for field measurements are available on the World Wide Web at URL http://

waterdata.usgs.gov.

Table 1. Selected information for observation wells located near Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, 

Minnesota.

[m, meters; ls, land surface]

USGS

identification

number

Minnesota 

well 

number

(site 

identifier

in fig. 1)

Latitude

(degrees, 

minutes, 

seconds)

Longitude

(degrees, 

minutes, 

seconds)

Land

surface 

altitude

(m above 

NAVD 88)

Screened 

interval 

(m below ls)

Well

depth

(m)

Date

drilled

Water level

(m below ls)

470852095250801 620651 47 08 52 095 25 08 497.72 11.35–12.88 12.88 09-16-2002 9.37

470943095250701 620652 47 09 43 095 25 07 499.12 11.43–12.95 12.95 09-17-2002 8.24

471218095260201 620654 47 12 18 095 26 02 521.98 8.73–10.29 10.29 09-19-2002 6.14

471229095233301 620655 47 12 29 095 23 33 516.49 22.10–23.62 23.62 09-18-2002 22.46

471058095233701 685804 47 10 58 095 23 37 496.62 10.85–11.77 11.77 09-17-2002 4.90
8 Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations at Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Minnesota

Historical Lake Levels and Climate Data

Historical analysis of lake levels at Long Lost Lake was 

done in three parts: (1) the collection and rectification of seven 

aerial photographs; (2) the processing and analysis of those 

photographs to create a historical record of lake levels and volume; and (3) the collection and analysis of concurrent climate 

and precipitation data to evaluate and explain hydrologic 

changes to the lake. 

Aerial Photograph Collection, Rectification,

and Processing

Aerial photograph imagery from 1991 and 2001 was relatively easy to obtain. It was in digital format, with good quality 

and high resolution, and was part of the USGS Minnesota Water 

Science Center spatial-data library. Aerial photograph coverage 

prior to 1990 was available from different agencies, and was 

collected in different formats, at different scales, and at different times of the year. The best resource for photography was the 

John R. Borchert Map Library at the University of Minnesota. 

Information on aerial photography is given in table 2. Bergman 

(2004) provides additional information on the aerial photographs used for this study.

In addition to aerial photography, supplementary data 

were needed for analyzing hydrologic and lake-level fluctuations at Long Lost Lake. These data included a National 

Elevation Dataset digital elevation model (NED DEM) (U.S. 

Geological Survey, 2003) and topographic maps for the area 

around Long Lost Lake. A bathymetric map, produced in 1972, 

was available from the MNDNR Lake Finder Web site (Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, 2003). Other spatial data 

collected included land cover, National Wetland Inventory, and 

Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) soil data, also from the 

MNDNR. Base data for the area also were compiled and used 

for representation and analytical purposes. These data layers 

include transportation features (roads, highways), hydrologic 

features (lakes, streams, wetlands), and political or administrative units.

The Long Lost Lake watershed also was delineated. The 

watershed is hummocky with many internally drained depressions, ponds, and wetlands. The normal contributing surface 

area (delineated as the normal watershed boundary in fig. 1) 

was determined by observing the topography on a USGS 

1:24,000-scale topographic map. The potential contributing 

surface area (delineated as the high-water watershed boundary 

in fig. 1) included areas of non-contributing basins surrounding 

the normal contributing watershed. These non-contributing 

areas were identified as areas where the pond/wetland level 

would need to rise above two 10-ft contours (approximately 

6 m) before contributing to the Long Lost Lake watershed. If 

that unlikely situation happened, those areas would flow into 

the Long Lost Lake watershed before flowing elsewhere.

Data Processing and Analysis

A base-surface model was used to calculate lake level and 

volume. The NED DEM required processing before it could be 

used in the analysis. The original NED DEM (U.S. Geological 

Survey, 2003) was created according to USGS national mapping standards with a 30-m grid cell. The problem with using 

the NED DEM as a surface model is that it was created from 

aerial photography and topographic maps and has inherent error 

in its production. For Long Lost Lake, the 30-m grid cell was 

too coarse to use for lake boundary altitude calculations, so the 

NED DEM was resampled to a 1-m grid cell. Another problem 

with using the NED DEM for analyzing the lakeshore is that the 

NED DEM levels off, following the surface of the lake rather 

than continuing into the lake to represent the bathymetry 

(fig. 3).

Table 2. Aerial photograph information and registration error per photograph, Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, 

Clearwater County, Minnesota.

[Modified from Bergman (2004). dpi, dots per inch; m, meters; --, not applicable]

Year Scale Resolution Number of 

control points

Standard deviation

(in meters)

Registration error

(in meters)

1939 1:20,000 1000 dpi 10 X = 2.69 Y = 1.92 X = 2.55 Y = 1.82

1960 1:20,000 1000 dpi 12 X = 4.36 Y = 2.93 X = 4.17 Y = 2.81

1974 1:40,000 1000 dpi 14 X = 4.41 Y = 5.19 X = 4.25 Y = 5.00

1975 1:15,840 1024 dpi 10 X = 2.00 Y = 1.71 X = 1.90 Y = 1.63

1983 1:15,840 1024 dpi 13 X = 2.94 Y = 3.24 X = 2.82 Y = 3.12

1991 1:40,000 3 m -- -- --

2001 1:40,000 600 dpi 13 X = 4.38 Y = 5.06 X = 4.21 Y = 4.86
A A‘

A A‘

460

470

480

500

490

510

520

1,500

1,525

1,550

1,575

1,600

1,625

1,650

1,675

1,700

FEET METERS

EAST WEST

A A‘

0 .1 .2 .3 MILES

0 .1 .2 .3 KILOMETERS

DATUM IS NAVD 88

VERTICAL EXAGGERATION X 6

Bathymetric Map

Model DEM NED DEM

Methods 9

Figure 3. Profile comparison of bathymetric map, National Elevation Dataset (NED) digital elevation model (DEM), and model DEM for 

Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota.

The alternative method used for constructing a basesurface model was to use the contour lines from the USGS 

1:24,000-scale Long Lost Lake topographic map. The bathymetric contour lines from within the lake as well as contour 

lines surrounding the lake were used to generate custom 10-m 

and 1-m surface grids. Despite the required manual corrections, 

this generated DEM (model DEM) represents a better approximation of the surface than the NED DEM. The 1-m surface was 

used as a base model for the analytical methods in this study, 

and is referred to hereinafter as the model DEM (fig. 3).

All spatial data and imagery were stored and analyzed 

using ArcInfo and ArcGIS software, developed by Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) (Environmental 

Systems Research Institute, Inc., 2002, ARC 8.3). To add the 

hard copy photographs to the GIS database, they were scanned 

at 1,000 dots per inch (dpi) using a Microtek Scanmaker 

9600XL office scanner. The photograph negatives were 

scanned at 1,016 dpi using a DSW500 Digital Scanning Workstation at the Minnesota Department of Transportation. These 

scanned images were at different scales, were not rectified, and 

thus did not line up in geographic space.

After creating digital versions of the aerial photography, it 

was necessary to identify a method for rectifying the images. 

OrthoMapper, a photogrammetric rectification software package developed at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, was 

used because this study required accurate photograph rectification to make direct measurements from the images. OrthoMapper allows the user to manually enter information about the 

photograph, such as flight height and camera focal length, or the 

user can accept default values common to most aerial photography (Image Processing Software, Inc., 2003). When using these 

features, along with well-placed ground-control points and a 

DEM, the images can be accurately rectified. A 1991 USGS 

Digital Orthophoto Quad (DOQ) provided horizontal positional 

accuracy, and the NED DEM was used for vertical control.

 Accurate ground-control point selection allows the aerial 

images to line up in geographic space. Because some of the 

changes in the lake boundary may be very small, even slight 
10 Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations at Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Minnesota

errors in ground-control points may induce great error in the 

results as the image is adjusted. For most images, it was not 

difficult to identify ground-control points at road intersections, 

sharp bends in roads, or other prominent features. The 1939 and 

1960 images showed very few roads or other visible permanent 

cultural features. In some cases, ground-control points had to be 

placed on natural features, such as a distinct point on a tree line 

or the center point of an island or peninsula. This was done only 

where the same feature was still evident on the 1991 DOQ. 

For each image, the root mean square error was minimized 

by tracking the residual that OrthoMapper records and updates 

with each added or deleted control point (table 2). The output 

orthophotos were produced at a 0.5-m pixel resolution. Because 

the horizontal control was provided by the DOQ, all the orthophotos matched the DOQ projection (Universal Transverse 

Mercator), datum (North American Datum of 1983), and ellipsoid (Geodetic Reference System of 1980) (U.S. Geological 

Survey, 1996). The output grids were stored in a Tag Image File 

Format (TIF), which can be viewed with ArcInfo and ArcGIS.

Lakeshore Delineation

Initial qualitative analysis of the changes to the lake was 

done by adding the rectified photographs to a desktop GIS 

application. Observations of general changes to the lake such as 

the appearance or elimination of islands, and connections or 

separations to side pools were noted. To record more detailed 

information on changes, and to perform quantitative analyses, 

the shoreline of the lake was recorded. Two approaches were 

taken to record this boundary— automated pixel classification 

and digitizing. 

Automated pixel classification was initially favored 

because the result could be repeatable and was less subjective. 

The photographs were processed using unsupervised classification techniques in ERDAS Imagine (Leica Geosystems, 2002; 

Lillesand and Kiefer, 2000). Boundary digitizing was the other 

method used for identifying the lake edge. Although this 

method has inherent subjectivity and human error, it also allows 

for individual attention and interpretation in questionable areas. 

Where the lake boundary was clear in a photograph, the automated classification worked well. However, there were many 

places where the lake boundary was ambiguous. Digitizing was 

determined to be the best method for identifying the lake 

boundary. In several photographs, the edge of the lake showed 

the presence of marshy, vegetated areas, so boundaries were not 

definitive. Background knowledge and photograph interpretation skills helped to determine the boundary where the automated classification failed. For example, the automated classification outlined every detail along the lakeshore, including 

algae blooms and overhanging trees. With digitizing, these 

details can be generalized to where the shore likely falls. A 

comparison of lake surface areas between the digitized boundaries and automated pixel boundaries yielded an average of 

5 percent difference in surface area. Although this indicates that 

either method would be feasible for representing the lake 

boundary, the post processing for automated classification was 

more time consuming. 

An additional issue with defining the lake boundary is that, 

although OrthoMapper is a sophisticated tool for rectification, 

the resulting orthophotographs were not perfectly rectified. 

There were still some minor differences and shifts among the 

different years of photography. This is not a substantial problem 

when making qualitative observations, but it becomes more so 

when the boundaries need to be used for direct comparisons and 

measurements. To resolve this situation, the boundaries were 

carefully shifted to line up close to a common center of gravity 

on the base-surface model. For example, if the lake boundary 

from one year was consistently shifted slightly to the northwest 

from the base-surface model, it was shifted to the southeast until 

it was centered on the base-model lake boundary. This adjustment was most effective on the west shoreline in the middle section of the lake, where the landscape becomes very steep and 

contour lines are very close together. If the digitized boundary 

was out of line due to error in rectification, it could result in the 

line crossing two or more contours, altering the results. 

Lake Level and Volume

The lake level was determined based on the lake boundary 

and its relation to the model DEM. After converting the digitized lake boundary vector to 1-m grid cells, it was overlaid on 

the model DEM. By adopting the model DEM values, the lakeboundary grid could be analyzed to estimate the lake level using 

simple statistical analyses. The mean and mode of the resulting 

grids were recorded, and histograms of the data were plotted. 

The digitized boundary grids also were overlaid on the resampled DEM merged with the MNDNR bathymetric map as an 

altitude comparison.

Lake volume was calculated based on the model DEM and 

the determined lake levels. A grid representing the lake was 

assigned the value of the surface altitude. The model DEM was 

subtracted from this grid to obtain the depth of each 1-m grid 

cell. These grid cells were summed to obtain the total volume 

for each measured year.

Climate and Precipitation

Climatological data were needed to establish the relation 

between trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration with 

changes in the level of Long Lost Lake. Available regional 

climatological data were compiled and assessed to determine 

historical trends. Precipitation and climate data were obtained 

from the Minnesota State Climatology Office. Data were compiled for the closest weather stations (fig. 2): Itasca (214106), 

Bemidji (210643), Detroit Lakes (212142), Mahnomen 

(215012), and Park Rapids (216360). Records compiled 

included monthly precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and snowfall. Different periods of record 

were available for each of the five weather stations. The closest 

station (Itasca) was used as the base station. Records from this 

station were from 1911 to 2003. Climate calculations for all 

stations were based on a period from January 1911 to December 

2002. Any years with missing records were not used in the 
Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations 11

analysis; no attempt was made to interpolate missing values. 

Other climate data compiled included storm events for Clearwater, Becker, Hubbard, and Mahnomen Counties, regional 

median frost dates, and soil freeze dates. Precipitation and temperature for years prior to each aerial photograph were separated from the period of record in 5- and 10-year increments to 

evaluate how precipitation and temperature may have influenced the lake measurement in the photograph. 

Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level 

Fluctuations

Hydrologic conditions for Long Lost Lake are described 

using analyses of recent surface and ground-water levels collected during 2003–2004 and using water temperature, specific 

conductance, pH, and dissolved-oxygen data collected during a 

synoptic lake survey in July 2004. Historic lake-level fluctuations are evaluated using aerial photography available from 

1939 to 2001. The relation between historical lake levels and 

volume and climate is evaluated using temperature and precipitation data compiled for the study.

Recent Surface- and Ground-Water Levels

Lake levels were recorded continuously from August 2003 

through December 2004. The purpose was to establish a 

temporal, detailed record of lake levels and to connect this 

record to precipitation and ground-water-level data. A longterm lake-level record is critical to understanding the relation 

between surface water and ground water. This is especially true 

for closed-basin lakes. Between August 2003 and December 

2004, the lake level showed a general decline. The highest lake 

altitude measured on Long Lost Lake during August 2003 to 

December 2004 was 492.58 m above NAVD 88 on August 5, 

2003, and the lowest was 492.11 m above NAVD 88 measured 

on August 29, 2004 (fig. 4).

The continuous lake-level data were used to evaluate lakelevel fluctuations with corresponding changes in ground-water 

levels and the water levels of surrounding ponds and wetlands. 

Water levels were measured in five observation wells (fig. 1) 

from 2002 to 2004. These data were used to prepare maps of the 

water table in the surficial aquifer to determine the extent of the 

area that contributed ground water to Long Lost Lake. These 

ground-water-level measurements are listed in table 3 and 

shown in figure 4. Wells 620654 and 620655, which are on the 

north side of the study area, have water-level altitudes that are 

higher than the lake, whereas wells 620651, 620652, and 

685804 have water-level altitudes that are lower than the lake. 

Because the ground-water level information was sparse, additional data were needed to determine areas of ground-water 

contribution. GPS equipment was used to gather additional 

information regarding water-surface altitudes of lakes, ponds, 

and wetlands because they likely are expressions of the water 

table. The surface-water data were used to supplement the data 

from existing wells. 

WATER LEVEL, IN METERS ABOVE NAVD 88

518

508

498

488

AUG. 5, 2003

OCT. 5, 2003

DEC. 5, 2003

FEB. 5, 2004

APR. 5, 2004

JUN. 5, 2004

AUG. 5, 2004

OCT. 5, 2004

DEC. 5, 2004

Long Lost Lake

Well 620651

Well 620652

Well 620654

Well 620655

Well 685804

Figure 4. Lake-level readings from Long Lost Lake and ground-water levels, August 2003 through December 2004.
Table 3. Water-level altitudes for observation wells surrounding Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, 

Minnesota, 2002–2004.

[--, no data]

Date

Water-level altitude, in meters above NAVD 88

Minnesota well number (site identifier in fig. 1)

620651 620652 620654 620655 685804

09-20021 488.35 490.88 515.84 494.03 491.65

10-10-2003 488.64 490.33 515.35 493.73 491.86

12-17-2003 488.53 490.22 515.21 493.62 491.83

03-24-2004 488.35 490.03 514.67 493.30 --

04-20-2004 488.33 489.99 515.01 493.47 491.76

04-25-2004 488.27 489.96 514.95 493.23 491.63

05-23-2004 488.25 489.94 514.99 493.21 491.61

07-07-2004 488.23 489.94 515.06 493.36 491.61

07-11-2004 488.22 489.91 515.05 493.05 491.55

11-04-2004 488.18 489.95 515.19 493.26 491.49

12-13-2004 488.20 489.95 515.31 492.99 491.70

1Initial water levels were measured between September 16 and 19, 2002.

12 Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations at Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Minnesota

During July 2004, water levels of 14 surrounding lakes, 

ponds, and wetlands were surveyed along with the 5 observation wells to determine altitudes (table 4). Initial interpretation 

of the altitudes assumed that the surface-water bodies were part 

of the ground-water table and were not isolated or perched. 

Upon observation, many water levels of these water bodies 

appeared to have risen substantially in recent years. This evidence included submerged trees, roads, and trails. All data collected during July 2004 was plotted on a map of Long Lost Lake 

(not shown), which indicated that the general direction of 

ground-water flow is north-northwest to south-southeast. The 

level of the ground-water table to the north of Long Lost Lake 

is substantially higher than the lake level. This provides the 

required head pressure for ground water to flow into Long Lost 

Lake. 

Five of the pond/wetland sites (sites 9, 10, 12, 13, and 14) 

and two wells (685804 and 620651) are on the southeast side of 

County Highway 39 (fig. 1). If County Highway 39 was an 

impediment to ground-water flow, the water level of Long Lost 

Lake would be considerably higher than the levels of ponds/

wetlands and the ground-water level to the south and east of the 

highway. Pond/wetland sites 12, 13, and 14 had levels higher 

than Long Lost Lake, whereas site 10 had the same water level 

as the lake during the GPS survey. Well 685804 is directly 

southeast of the Long Lost Lake gage and on the southeast side 

of County Highway 39 and had a water level of 491.61 m 

during the GPS survey, which is consistent with the regional 

water-table gradient. In addition, the lake had a water level of 

492.25 m, indicating that the highway is not substantially 

restricting ground-water recharge from southeast Long Lost 

Lake to the surficial aquifer. 

Table 4. Pond and wetland levels near Long Lost Lake, White 

Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota, July 

2004.

Pond/wetland

identification number

(fig. 1)

Water level

(meters above NAVD 88)

1 494.12

2 493.50

3 508.89

4 505.65

5 511.33

6 510.59

7 507.35

8 492.04

9 491.28

10 492.16

11 492.25

12 492.25

13 492.84

14 492.53
Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations 13

Synoptic Lake Survey Results

On July 13, 2004, a synoptic survey of Long Lost Lake 

was conducted. Synoptic surveys show a snap-shot of conditions at a particular moment in time. The purposes of a synoptic 

survey are to provide a better understanding of environmental 

conditions and to determine where further investigation may be 

necessary. This synoptic study was an efficient method of 

assessing lake conditions, requiring only a multi-parameter 

probe and no other analytical equipment or samples. Conditions 

measured were water temperature, specific conductance, pH, 

and dissolved oxygen.

The synoptic survey focused on the lake’s perimeter 

because the silt at the bottom of most lakes restricts the groundwater flow into the lake (Wetzel, 2001), and most flow into a 

lake occurs in the littoral zone (Winter, 1978). Temperaturesurvey data collected during the synoptic survey showed that 

temperatures were colder at the northern end of the lake than at 

the southern end of the lake, indicating a north to south flow. 

The coldest lake temperature (17.5oC) was measured on the 

eastern shore of the northern part of the lake. Temperature patterns in the southern part of the lake are less apparent. Temperatures along the eastern shore are slightly less than those along 

the western shore, but these differences may not be significant. 

The temperature data indicate a north-northeast to south-southwest flow in the northern part of the lake; however, this direction does not appear to be maintained in the southern part of the 

lake. 

Specific conductance in the northern part of the lake 

increased slightly from north to south. Values on the eastern 

shore were less than those along the western shore. This pattern 

is similar to temperature data. Specific conductance in the 

southern part of the lake was greater on the southwest shore 

than on the southeast shore. One exception is a data point near 

the southern end of the peninsula (northeast of the USGS lake 

gage in fig. 1) where a specific conductance of 279 microsiemens per centimeter at 25o

C was measured (compared to 269–

271 microsiemens per centimeter at surrounding sites). The 

temperature at this point (18.0oC) was lower than surrounding 

data points (18.6–18.9o

C). 

Values of pH in the northeastern end of the lake were 

slightly less than those in other areas of the lake, but did not 

show a directional trend. The greatest dissolved-oxygen concentration was measured along the northern shore of the lake. 

Dissolved-oxygen concentrations were slightly greater on the 

northwestern shore than on the northeastern shore, and concentrations in the southeastern corner of the lake generally were 

less than those measured along the northern shore. No specific 

directional trends in dissolved-oxygen concentration were 

clear, due in part to the large range of dissolved oxygen 

measured over small distances. 

The observed patterns determined during the synoptic 

survey indicate a north-northeast to south-southwest flow in the 

northern part of the lake, with an increasing east to west component in the southern part of the lake. The temperature, 

specific conductance, pH, and dissolved-oxygen data all identify one data point located at the southeast end of the southern 

peninsula (northeast of the USGS lake gage in fig. 1) with temperature and specific conductance values slightly different than 

surrounding values, and dissolved oxygen and pH values substantially different than surrounding values. This location may 

be influenced by some other water source (possibly a point 

discharge) and was not considered important in determining the 

overall north to south trend in the lake. 

Aerial Photography for Measuring Historic 

Lake-Level Fluctuations

Determination of the extent of the contributing watershed, 

the contributing ground-water basin, and lake/watershed ratios 

is critical to understanding the hydrology of Long Lost Lake. 

This information was difficult to determine for Long Lost Lake 

because the topography in the vicinity of the lake’s watershed is 

hummocky, and internally drained into small depressions, 

ponds, and wetlands. The extent of the watershed contributing 

runoff to Long Lost Lake was determined using existing GIS 

data from topographic and digital-elevation model information. 

Maps of the watershed showing contributing (normal 

watershed boundary) and potential contributing (high-water 

watershed boundary) areas were prepared (fig. 1). Delineation 

of the area that contributes ground water to Long Lost Lake and 

the magnitude of ground-water recharge were critical to understanding lake and ground-water interactions. The extent of the 

area contributing ground water likely is different from the area 

that contributes to overland runoff to the lake. It is likely that 

ground-water recharge in the Long Lost Lake watershed is 

abnormally high because of substantial internal (closed basin) 

drainage. 

Visual comparisons of unrectified images clearly showed 

a substantial rise in lake level from the 1939 imagery to 2001 

(fig. 5a and b). Delineation of the lakeshore provided a method 

for quantifying the change in lake area. The lake boundary was 

determined for each of the aerial photographs described in 

table 2. 

After rectification of the photographs and delineation of 

the shoreline, the changes became even more apparent when 

they were displayed in the same geographic space (fig. 5c). 

Based on the digitized boundaries of the lake, the surface area 

increased from 94 ha in 1939 to 206 ha in 2001. 

The results from overlaying the lake boundaries on the 

model DEM showed the expected rise in lake level between the 

1939 photograph and the 1960 photograph, a stable period, then 

an additional rise between 1991 and 2001 (Bergman, 2004). 

Although the lakeshore grid statistics reflect the rise in level of 

Long Lost Lake, they do not match the anticipated level exactly. 

For example, the estimated lake altitude for the 2001 photograph based on the digitized boundary is 491.74 m above 

NAVD 88 (Bergman, 2004). The MNDNR gage recorded an 

altitude of 492.71 m above NAVD 88 the day before the aerial 
14 Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations at Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Minnesota

photograph was taken. The change in digitized lake altitude 

from 1991 to 2001 is less than 2.5 m, whereas readings from the 

MNDNR lake gage indicate that it was about 4 m. However, the 

estimated altitude of 492.77 m above NAVD 88 based on the 

automated pixel boundary for 2001 is similar to the MNDNR 

gage reading, and the change in lake altitude from 1991 to 2001 

is 2.74 m. This strengthens the concept of using the automated 

pixel boundary for a guide; however, because digitizing was 

determined to be the best method for identifying the lake 

boundary, only digitized statistics are presented herein. Using 

the digitized boundaries with the model DEM, a historical lake 

record from 1939 to 2001 was compiled and is presented in 

table 5. Changes in lake altitude and volume at Long Lost Lake 

are presented in more detail in Bergman (2004), including a 

comparison of digitized and automated pixel grid statistics. 

Table 5. Changes in surface area, water-level altitude, and 

volume, Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, 

Clearwater County, Minnesota.

[ha, hectare; m, meter; hm3, cubic hectometer]

Year

Digitized

surface area

(ha)

Water-level 

altitude

(m above 

NAVD 88)

Volume

(hm3)

1939 93.89 487.52 3.29

1960 151.94 489.23 5.28

1974 155.79 489.25 5.52

1975 155.56 489.20 5.44

1983 151.65 489.09 5.27

1991 160.98 489.42 5.81

2001 205.99 491.74 10.24

1939 lake area

2001 lake area

EXPLANATION

1939 2001 Changes in 1939 and 2001 

lake areas

(a) (b) (c)

Figure 5. Historical aerial photographs of Long Lost Lake, (a) 1939 and (b) 2001, and (c) map showing changes in the 1939 and 2001 lake 

areas.
Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations 15

Relation of Historical Lake Levels and

Volume to Climate

Throughout the 20th century, precipitation and temperatures in the study area generally have increased. This holds true 

for the Itasca weather station, as well as for the other nearby 

weather stations: Bemidji, Detroit Lakes, Mahnomen, and Park 

Rapids. The average annual low temperatures have increased 

slightly, while average annual high temperatures have remained 

stable. To characterize these trends, average temperatures were 

grouped in 10-year periods. Average low temperatures for 

Itasca increased from -4.2°C during 1910–1919 to -2.7°C 

during 1990–1999. Average low temperatures for the five stations increased from -3.5°C during 1910–1919 to -1.6°C during 

1990–1999. Average high temperatures for Itasca, however, 

decreased slightly from 10.2°C during 1910–1919 to 9.8°C 

during 1990–1999. The average high temperature for the five 

stations increased slightly from 10.1°C during 1910–1919 to 

10.5°C during 1990–1999.

Precipitation has increased in the area surrounding Long 

Lost Lake during the 20th century. The years preceding the 2001 

aerial photograph were particularly wet—annual precipitation 

departures from normal were 25.4 cm (Minnesota State Climatology Office, 2003). Precipitation for 1999 ranked in the top 90 

to 95 percent when compared to annual totals for the 100-year 

period, 1891–1990, and 1999 represents the maximum in departure from normal precipitation. The years 1998, 2000, 2001, and 

2002 also had large departures from normal precipitation. Total 

precipitation above normal for January 1, 1991, to August 16, 

1999, in Minnesota shows the study area received abovenormal precipitation during the period (fig. 2). With average 

annual maximum temperatures remaining relatively stable, 

evaporation rates also were stable. With all other factors constant, an increase in precipitation and no increase in evaporation 

results in an increased lake level. As a closed-basin lake, 

increasing precipitation and stable evaporation can be a major 

factor in lake-level increases at Long Lost Lake.

 Extended dry and wet periods also have influenced lake 

levels and volume. This is evident from the aerial photography; 

drier years from early in the 1900s, and possibly earlier, led to 

the low lake level in 1939. Around 1950, as precipitation began 

to increase, the lake level also increased. The late 1980s also 

were dry years in the study area. Many lakes in central Minnesota had declines in lake levels from 1986 to 1988 (Minnesota 

Department of Natural Resources, 1989). The level at Rice 

Lake, in Stearns County, dropped about 1.5 m, and the level at 

Mille Lacs, in Mille Lacs County, dropped nearly 1 m. There 

were no aerial photographs of Long Lost Lake for the late 1980s 

to evaluate whether there was a decline in lake level during this 

period; however, the lake level declined between 1974 and 

1983, and only rose slightly between 1983 and 1991 (table 5).

Estimated lake volume of Long Lost Lake and cumulative 

precipitation were compared (fig. 6). The estimated lake 

volume shows a substantial rise through the early part of the 

20th century, a leveling off during the mid to late part of the 

century, and a substantial rise during the final decade. Because 

Long Lost Lake is a closed-basin lake, the lake volume in any 

year is affected by the precipitation from the current year as 

well as previous years. Therefore, cumulative precipitation was 

plotted in figure 6 to compare estimated volume to the cumulative effect of yearly precipitation. The general trend in lake 

volume coincides with temperature and precipitation changes 

during the 20th century.

The substantial rise in lake level and lake volume between 

1991 and 2001 coincides with the stable annual maximum temperatures (and thus, evaporation rates) and the increase in precipitation in the years preceding 2001. Although precipitation 

and estimated lake volume increased from 1939 to 2001, the 

leveling off of the lake volume between about 1960 and 1990, 

followed by the rapid rise in lake level and volume in the 1990s 

needs further investigation. Ground-water discharge to Long 

Lost Lake is not well understood, but may have stabilized lake 

levels through the drought period.

The explanation for the sharp rise in the lake level in the 

1990s can be attributed to above-normal precipitation. The 

rapid lake-level rise seems to be a normal response to changes 

in climate. However, changes in land cover around the lake 

should be considered because increased impermeable surfaces 

can increase runoff to the lake. Aerial photography has shown 

that substantial road construction has occurred around the lake, 

with paving between the 1983 (Bergman, 2004) and 2001 

photographs. The Clearwater County Engineering Department 

reported that County Highway 39, which runs along the south 

and east sides of the lake, was straightened during 1989 and 

1990, and it was paved in 1992. The increase in impervious 

surfaces around a lake may increase both runoff and sedimentation to the lake. Because Long Lost Lake is a closed-basin lake 

with no outlet, the response to above-normal precipitation and 

increased impervious surface could be rapid.

To understand the ground-water component and the effect 

of impervious surfaces, further investigation and analysis, 

including a longer period of record, is necessary. Continuing to 

measure ground-water levels in existing observation wells 

would provide a longer period of record for additional analyses 

in the future. 

It also is likely that the lake level at Long Lost Lake is 

historically normal. A direct comparison was made between the 

1939 and 2001 aerial photographs (fig. 5). The lake level was 

very low in 1939, and a dry non-vegetated area surrounded the 

lake in 1939 that is nearly identical (5 percent difference) to the 

2001 lakeshore boundary. This is evidence that the water level 

at Long Lost Lake may have been as high as the 2001 water 

level in the past. However, one cannot rule out the possibility 

that increased impermeable surfaces surrounding the lake had 

an effect on the most recent (1990s) rise in lake level.
11.0

10.0

9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

5,000

4,000

4,500

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

ESTIMATED LAKE VOLUME, IN CUBIC HECTOMETERS

CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION, IN CENTIMETERS

Precipitation

Volume

16 Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations at Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Minnesota

Figure 6. Lake volume estimated from digitized and photographic lakeshore boundary grids, compared to cumulative precipitation, 

Long Lost Lake, White Earth Indian Reservation, Clearwater County, Minnesota.

Summary

Long Lost Lake, a closed-basin lake in Clearwater County, 

Minnesota, has had a substantial rise in lake level since 1990. 

The increased level and surface area of the lake has led to the 

inundation of nearby homes and roads. There was concern that 

the improvement of County Highway 39 along the south and 

east side of the lake may have contributed to lake-level rise by 

restricting discharge from the lake to ground water. The U.S. 

Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the White Earth 

Band of Chippewa Indians conducted a study to document 

historical lake-level fluctuations of Long Lost Lake, to determine the cause and effect relations that have resulted in the 

increased lake level, and to develop a general understanding of 

the hydrology of lakes that have had rapid changes in lake 

levels. 

Lake levels were recorded continuously from August 2003 

through December 2004. The purpose was to establish a temporal, detailed record of lake levels and to connect this record to 

precipitation and ground-water level data. A long-term record is 

critical to understanding the relation between surface water and 

ground water. This is especially true for closed-basin lakes. 

Between August 2003 and December 2004, the lake level 

generally declined. The highest lake altitude was 492.58 m 

above NAVD 88 on August 5, 2003, and the low of 492.11 m 

above NAVD 88 occurred on August 29, 2004.

Water levels were measured in five observation wells from 

October 2003 through December 2004. Because this information was sparse, additional data were needed to determine areas 

of ground-water contribution. For that reason, global positioning system (GPS) equipment was used to gather information on 

water-surface altitudes of lakes, ponds, and wetlands because 

they likely are expressions of the water table. The water table is 
References 17

substantially higher than the lake level on the north side of the 

lake, indicating potential ground-water discharge to the lake in 

this area. Five of the surface water sites are on the southeast side 

of County Highway 39. These sites along with two of the observation wells show that water-table levels south and east of Long 

Lost Lake are similar to the level of Long Lost Lake. These data 

indicate that the recent highway improvement has not restricted 

ground-water flow between Long Lost Lake and the surficial 

aquifer to the southeast; however, the increase in impervious 

surfaces surrounding the lake may increase runoff to the lake.

On July 13, 2004, a synoptic survey of Long Lost Lake 

was conducted. This synoptic survey was a method of assessing 

lake conditions, requiring a multi-parameter probe. Conditions 

measured were water temperature, specific conductance, pH, 

and dissolved oxygen. The observed patterns determined during 

the synoptic survey indicate that ground-water flow is from the 

north-northwest to the south-southeast. 

Because of the lack of long-term hydrologic data, aerial 

photography was used to establish a historical record of lake 

level and volume for Long Lost Lake. Seven aerial photographs 

of the Long Lost Lake watershed were collected and rectified. 

Geographic Information Systems software was used to store, 

analyze, and visualize the data and results for Long Lost Lake. 

The main analytical steps began with the identification of the 

lake boundary from each photograph. This boundary was then 

used to identify the surface altitude of the lake based on the 

position of the lake edge on a digital elevation model (model 

DEM). Lake volume was calculated based on the surface altitude, lake boundary, and model DEM. Finally, the generated 

record of lake level and volume was compared with temperature 

and precipitation data to observe correlations and trends.

The lake levels and volume rose early in the 20th century, 

were stable during the middle of the century, and substantially 

increased during the final decade. These results coincide with 

temperature and precipitation changes. There is evidence in the 

1939 photograph (a large non-vegetated area) that lake levels 

have been high in the past. The boundary of the non-vegetated 

area is nearly identical to the 2001 lake boundary. Based on this, 

changes to the lake are primarily natural and historically 

normal. Although other factors such as land-use change and 

ground-water response probably play a role in the rising level of 

Long Lost Lake, short-term ground-water-level data did not 

allow for that analysis. Continuing to measure ground-water 

levels at the existing wells may provide the information necessary to evaluate ground-water response. In addition, monitoring 

of the pond, wetland, and ground-water levels on both sides of 

County Highway 39 would provide additional information for 

evaluating the effect of that impervious surface. 

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Christensen and Bergman—Hydrologic Conditions and Lake-Level Fluctuations at Long Lost Lake, 1939–2004, White Earth Indian Reservation,

Clearwater County, Minnesota—SIR 2005–5181

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