NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-147b

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE GREAT LAKES ECOSYSTEM

A NOAA SCIENCE NEEDS ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP

TO MEET EMERGING CHALLENGES - SUMMARY REPORT

S.T. Joseph1

, L.A. Chaimowitz2, , R.A. Sturtevant1, D.M. Mason2, 

C.E. Sellinger2, J. Wang2, and C. DeMarchi3, and S.B. Brandt2

1

Michigan Sea Grant, Ann Arbor, MI

2

NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI

3

Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, Ann Arbor, MI

May 2009

UNITED STATES

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Gary Locke

Secretary

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND

ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Jane Lubchenco

Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere

NOAA Administrator
2

NOTICE

Mention of a commercial company or product does not constitute an endorsement 

by the NOAA. Use of information from this publication concerning proprietary 

products or the tests of such products for publicity or advertising purposes is not 

authorized. This is GLERL Contribution No. 1514.

This publication is available as a PDF file and can be downloaded from GLERL’s 

web site: www.glerl.noaa.gov. Hard copies can be requested from GLERL

Information Services, 4840 S. State Rd., Ann Arbor, MI 48108.

pubs.glerl@noaa.gov.

NOAA’s Mission – To understand and predict changes in Earth’s environment 

and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our nation’s 

economic, social and environmental needs 

NOAA’s Mission Goals:

•	 Protect, restore and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through an

ecosystem approach to management

•	 Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan

and respond

•	 Serve society’s needs for weather and water information

•	 Support the Nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and

environmentally sound transportation

•	 Provide critical support for NOAA’s Mission
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.	 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................... 5

2. METHODS.......................................................................................................................................... 6

3.	 RESULTS............................................................................................................................................ 7

Forecasts, models, decision-making tools, uncertainty, risk, and risk assessment............................. 8

Research to increase understanding ................................................................................................... 9

Data, databases, monitoring, and observing systems....................................................................... 10

Mapping, GIS, Bathymetry ..............................................................................................................11

Outreach, communications, collaborations, and engagement.......................................................... 13

Economic/societal value, cost/benefit, and funding......................................................................... 13

4. 	 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS............................................................................... 15

APPENDIX 1 	 Previous Workshops, Conferences, and Related Reports on Impacts of

 Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region ................................................................. 17

APPENDIX II 	 Full Workshop Agenda .....................................................................................................

APPENDIX III 	 Listing of Issues, Needs, and Suggestions from First and Second Breakout

	 	 Sessions Within the Key Scientific Theme Areas – Physical Environment,

	 	 Water Quantity, Watershed Hydrology, Water Quality and Human Health,

	 	 Fish Recruitment and Productivity, and Aquatic Invasive Species .............................. 23

APPENDIX IV	 Table listing key issues, needs, activities, and suggestions identified within

 each of the overarching subject categories during breakouts of the six 

	 	 Key Scientific Theme Areas......................................................................................... 43
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5

Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Ecosystem

A NOAA Science Needs Assessment Workshop 

to Meet Emerging Challenges

Summary Report

July 29-31, 2008

S.T. Joseph, L.A. Chaimowitz , M.A. Quigley, R.A. Sturtevant, D.M. Mason,

C.E. Sellinger, J. Wang, and C. DeMarchi

1. INTRODUCTION

From July 29 to 31, 2008, NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) co-hosted

the workshop – Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Ecosystem – A NOAA Science Needs 

Assessment to Meet Emerging Challenges.

The workshop was held at the School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan

Central Campus, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Workshop co-hosts were the Cooperative Institute for Limnology

and Ecosystems Research (CILER), the Great Lakes Sea Grant Network, and the NOAA Great Lakes

Regional Team. Event co-sponsors included: GLERL, CILER, and the Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin,

Illinois/Indiana, Minnesota, and Michigan Sea Grant Programs.

The purpose of the workshop was to take the first step in developing a NOAA research strategy that

addresses the impact of climate change on Great Lakes coastal ecosystems that is driven by user needs. 

The workshop was unique because of its focus on identifying and prioritizing research needs and future

plans toward understanding the impact of climate change on the physical, chemical, and biological

processes in Great Lakes coastal waters and connecting channels. Previous workshops, conferences, and

reports that address climate change impacts in the Great Lake region are listed in Appendix I.

The objectives of the workshop were to:

●	 Examine the current state of knowledge of the physical, chemical, and biological impacts of climate

change in the Great Lakes’ coastal waters and connecting channels, which includes current scientific

understanding, products, services, expertise, monitoring and observing systems, datasets, and forecast 

models.

● Start a dialogue with Great Lakes stakeholders to identify key needs related to the impact of climate

change on Great Lakes resources.

● Document key challenges that climate change impacts pose in continuing effective management, 

restoration, and protection of the integrity of the Great Lakes Ecosystem and related resources of 

particular concern to stakeholders. 

● Identify and apply presently available scientific expertise, products and services, that support 

stakeholders in confronting the impacts of climate change in protecting, managing, or restoring Great 

Lakes resources.
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● Identify new scientific research efforts and resulting products that will enhance stakeholder

capabilities to better anticipate impacts of climate change on Great Lakes resources and develop more 

effective, pre-emptive strategies to meet new challenges in managing, protecting, or restoring such

resources.

● Compile and disseminate a report summarizing workshop proceedings and recommendations.

2. METHODS

The three day workshop consisted of two full days of scientific and stakeholder presentations followed by

the break-out sessions on the third day that brought the scientists and stakeholders together to discuss the 

thematic areas below. 

Key scientific theme focal areas were:

● Physical Environment

● Water Quantity

● Watershed Hydrology

● Water Quality and Human Health

● Fish Recruitment and Productivity

● Aquatic Invasive Species

The scientific presentations can be found online at: 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/Programs/climate_change/cc_workshop_agenda.html

The full workshop Agenda is listed in Appendix II.

The workshop was a first step toward developing an expanded dialogue between the Great Lakes

scientific community and Great Lakes stakeholders. Starting the dialogue can strengthen the two-way

communication and continue an ongoing process that increases stakeholder awareness of existing and

future scientific products, services, and expertise. Through the access to available resources stakeholders 

will be enabled to develop more effective, science-based strategies to meet future challenges in managing,

protecting, or restoring Great Lakes resources in the face of climate change impacts. The dialogue will

also increase awareness in the Great Lakes scientific community of immediate and emerging stakeholder

needs and allow scientists to respond to such needs by fine-tuning existing research activities, or by

planning and developing new research efforts.

The discussion questions are listed below. Some or all of these questions were posed to each of the six

break-out sessions filled with a diverse group of scientists, stakeholders, and decision-makers.

What do we need and what is missing?

● What do you see as major research or information gaps in physical environment, water quantity,

watershed hydrology, water quality and human health, fish recruitment and productivity, or aquatic

invasive species related to climate change science?

● What do you see as immediate needs in this theme area (within the next 2-4 years) for Great Lakes

climate change research?
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● What do you see as longer-term needs (within the next 5-7 years) for Great Lakes climate change

research?

● What type of training, if any, would help you in management efforts?

● Who are your stakeholders and how do you engage them in this issue?

● What scientific products, services, and/or expertise have you sought and from where?

● What is the best way for us to communicate to you new information, tools, and technologies related to

this issue?

What is needed to get us there?

●	 What products/services should NOAA be aiming to develop and what type are they (tools,

technology, methods, forecasts, models, or information)?

● At what scale (geographic and spatial) should NOAA work to address this need?

● What collaborations, integration, and coordination are needed to achieve useful development and

application of products and services?

● Why is it of value to society?

Appendix III presents a listing of issues, needs, and suggestions identified during the First and Second 

Breakout Sessions within the Key Scientific Theme Areas.

3. RESULTS

An extensive review of results of the first and second breakout sessions revealed a set of overarching

subject categories including:

● Forecasts, models, prediction, outlooks, scenarios, predictive / decision-making tools, uncertainty, 

risk and risk assessment.

● Research to increase understanding and/or to expand knowledge base.

● Data, data sets, databases, monitoring and observing systems.

● Mapping, GIS, bathymetry and related activities.

● Outreach, communications, collaboration, scientist-stakeholder engagement.

● Economic / societal value, cost-benefit, funding.

Each main thematic area is listed below with key findings from each scientific theme area break out

session. Some or all of the questions were answered by break out sessions.

As a whole, the Physical Environment group determined that model development needed to be expanded 

and refined to incorporate lake level forecasts for the entire Great Lakes at multiple spatial scales and 

resolutions, for example, all forecasts need to be available for the whole lake down to a 100 meter

resolution. Increasing the understanding of ice on ecosystem structure and improving ice modeling was

also a priority. All products and tools (forecasts and maps) need to be user friendly and readily available

for managers and decision makers.
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The development of long-term water level forecasts and linking water quantity effects to economic

vitality was a main priority for the Water Quantity breakout group. Increased and continuous monitoring

and model development with varying water level scenarios would be beneficial to determining climate

change impacts on near-shore / coastal communities. 

Watershed Hydrology discussions focused on the need for accurate information on water quality,

precipitation, and linking land use to the hydrology of the Great Lakes. The development of better models 

could assist in administering policies for controlling pollution run-off during adverse weather conditions,

such as heavy precipitation or increased snow melt events.

The overall sense from the Water Quality and Human Health breakout was that the development of

predictive models that provide differing scenarios correlating climate change impacts on water quality

was needed. For example, bacteria concentrations and nutrient inputs to water levels and hydrodynamics

is critical. Additionally, increased outreach and communication to share information, keep up-to-date on 

research development, and determine which groups are conducting what types of research was seen as

valuable.

In regards to Fish Recruitment and Productivity, the main research gap is understanding physicalbiological coupling and its relationship and impact on population interactions and trophic levels related to 

fish productivity. In addition, understanding the impact of potential changes in winter conditions and ice

cover on egg survival and reproductive success was set forth as a major priority.

The Aquatic Invasive Species group concluded that there needs to be better coordination and organization

of available resources to research the impact that invasive species will have on the Great Lakes in light of

climate change. Assuming food webs will change as a result of climate change, there was discussion on

whether priority should be given to sustain native species or to prepare to better manage changes in food

webs as invasive species becoming integrated into ecosystems.

Appendix IV provides a table listing key issues, needs, activities, and suggestions identified within

each of the overarching subject categories during breakouts of the six Key Scientific Theme Areas. This

information serves as the basis of the summary that follows:

Forecasts, models, decision-making tools, uncertainty, risk, and risk assessment

The Physical Environment breakout put strong emphasis on forecasts and model development, in 

particular, a unified lake level forecast model that includes climate change impacts, three-dimensional 

lake-wide hydrodynamic and ecosystem models, and a Great Lakes Regional Earth System Model. In

addition, they cited areas for additional work to include improved ice modeling and forecasting and

increased capabilities in forecasting climate change-related increase of intensity of storms. Overall 

scaling for all models spanned from global to regional to local and was viewed as a critical part of model

development.

For Water Quantity, key areas for forecasts and model development included improvement of water

level forecast models to produce 5-10-year outlooks, forecast products to help improve prediction of 

extreme events (2-3-year outlook), and an improved, more plausible time series model (precipitation and

temperature).

Prime areas for new or expanded efforts in Watershed Hydrology included improved flood forecasting 

systems, institutionalization of water quality models via interagency collaboration (at the 10 sq. km
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scale), development of an integrated climate watershed model for all of the lakes, and better models and

practices for non-point source loadings in response to increased precipitation.

The Water Quality and Human Health breakout highlighted two key areas for predictive model

development: (1) to assess effects of increased storm/rainfall events on combined sewer overflow (CSO)

and their impact on drinking water and beaches in order to better prepare for any infrastructure needs

such as moving water intakes and other long term control or construction plans, (2) to assess the impacts

of climate change on overall water quality (physical, chemical, and biological). High priority was also

given to near-term development of risk assessments of climate change impacts on human health and local 

economies. The immediate needs identified were to (1) characterize and prioritize potential health risks

from toxic chemical cycling and water treatment to see which may be most harmful, (2) develop risk

assessments for potential impacts-human health, economic impacts, and (3) utilize predictive tools to

develop effective models. 

The Fish Recruitment and Productivity breakout recommended the development of several models 

including a global/regional Great Lakes climate change model (basin-wide and by lake), an improved

higher resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model incorporating a greater number of depth 

strata driven by output from the regional climate change model, a bio-physical food web model (fish

recruitment) coupled with the 3-D hydrodynamic model. These models would then be used to forecast

fish recruitment and productivity as a function of climate change scenarios.

The Aquatic Invasive Species (AIS) breakout assigned high priority to building basin-wide and lakeby-lake forecast models identifying high-risk areas most vulnerable to AIS invasions, as well as mostlikely invaders and/or native species most threatened by AIS-induced extinction. Another identified key 

objective of model creation was use of forecast models and analysis to create scenarios of future species

composition with particular focus on loss of native species with high economic or societal value. A key

point was made that the identification of a target food web is important for decision-makers.

Research to increase understanding

Physical Environment: Although the breakout identified a wide array of models that warranted creation,

identification of research to support such work was limited. Stakeholders identified the need to better

understanding of the effects of ice on ecosystem structure and an expanded understanding of coastal 

processes.

Water Quantity: High priority research needs included a more complete understanding of the sensitivity 

of the lakes to temperature, the impacts of channelization and changes in inflows and outflows on water

quantity, longer-term water level trends (5-10-year increments), and the impact of water quantity removal

from the basin (2007 Groundwater Conservation Advisory Commission).

Watershed Hydrology: There is a need for an assessment of projected changes in future watershed

parameters and impacts of crops/agriculture, erosion, and natural vegetation.

Water Quality and Human Health: Prime needed research areas included quantification of watershed

nutrient loading and groundwater nutrient concentrations and how nutrient loading/concentrations may

differ based on changes in water quantity, and its impacts on drinking water quality. Determination of

frequency, duration, and intensity of bacteria affecting beach closures, how climate change will impact

bacteria survival, improved understanding of contaminant effects on fish populations (and implications

for subsistence fishing and lower socioeconomic communities), and evaluation of climate-related health

effects (waterborne and airborne) along with exposure routes and vectors.
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Immediate needs are to (1) develop specific climate change scenarios to define the problem (fish

harvesting, algal blooms, beach closures) including questions like, what are specific consequences (water

flow, water quality), and what are human needs and how might they change? (2) Assess water intakes

in the lakes and wastewater discharges including inventories of shipping channels and marinas that may

be most affected by lowered water levels and what could happen? (3) Provide information on watershed

discharges affecting water quantity-water intakes.

Fish Recruitment and Productivity: Key research objectives highlighted by the breakout included: (1)

determine how inter-annual variability in the physical environment (e.g., water temperature, frequency of

upwelling events, changes in large scale circulation patterns, etc) interact with multiple stressors (nutrient

loading, invasive species) to impact aquatic food webs, (2) examine impacts of climate change on ice

cover and implications for ontogeny of spring bloom, especially in Lake Erie, (3) assess impact of climate

change on physical factors and subsequent effect on fish spatial distribution for various life stages, 

(4) identify fish species most vulnerable to climate change impacts, (5) measure changes in benthos

productivity in nearshore and offshore areas, (6) forecast changes in land use, corresponding changes in

wetland distribution, and their subsequent impact on fish recruitment and productivity, (7) obtain a better

understanding of the influence of the lower food web on fish recruitment and productivity.

Aquatic Invasive Species: Suggested key research needs included near-term improved understanding 

of algae/quagga mussel interactions to support models based on temperature and productivity, and

identification of vulnerable species and potential loss of native predator-prey relationships and energy 

flow changes.

Data, databases, monitoring, and observing systems

Physical Environment: The breakout identified an overall need for better, more complete, and unified data 

and datasets on a lake-region-wide scale. Feedback on data quality and making data more accessible to

mangers was also given a high priority.

Water Quantity: In general, there was a consensus in support of more consistent, effective, and continuous

monitoring throughout the basin with a high priority on full support of the implementation of the

Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) in the Great Lakes, i.e. the Great Lakes Observing System

(GLOS). Near-term establishment of better observing/reporting networks and model outputs was also

viewed as a high priority along with deployment of an instrument network to measure evaporation /

evapo-transpiration. 

Watershed Hydrology: Overall, there was common recognition of inadequate data pertaining to water

quality, measured precipitation, and stream flow (gauges).

Water Quality and Human Health: The breakout suggested wider data collection on nutrient loading

when/where there are gaps from all possible sources (in coastal zone and nearshore).There was also

a need cited for data on frequency, concentration, and speciation of bacteria related to beach closures

(watershed-by-watershed scale; weekly/daily time frame during recreational season). Development

of continuous data stream sensor technology for monitoring beach bacteria levels was also rated as an

important research objective. Finally the breakout recommended documentation and organization of all

data on algal blooms to determine if there are climate-related trends. Immediate needs were to document

and organize all the data we have about algal blooms to see if there really are trends due to climate

change-an inventory.
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Fish Recruitment and Productivity: The breakout emphasized the need to improve satellite monitoring

of water color for chlorophyll-a (Coastwatch, AVHRR, lake-wide; 0.5–1 km resolution) with a nearshore

focus, and expand and improve technology of observation platforms, and perpetuate long-term datasets 

and monitoring.

Aquatic Invasive Species: A high priority was assigned to expanding AIS monitoring basin-wide at

the highest possible resolution while standardizing data collection and promoting greater development

of expertise and increased reliance on remote sensing technology, particularly for species such as 

phragmites.

Mapping, GIS, Bathymetry 

Physical Environment: Only one need was cited: production of digital bathymetric maps on a lake- and

region-wide basis.

Water Quantity: Two key items identified included the development of high-resolution topography /

digital elevation maps to support modeling, and creation of present and projected climate maps across a 

global-state-zip code scale.

Watershed Hydrology: There was full support suggested for basin-wide floodplain maps and flood

forecasting systems dependent on scale of the community.

Water Quality and Human Health: The development of GIS maps with CSO locations, drinking water

intakes, and other urban infrastructure overlayed with beach maps was discussed, as long as there were no

threats to homeland security regarding developing these maps.

Fish Recruitment and Productivity: High priority activities recommended by the breakout included: (1)

conduct comprehensive high resolution mapping of bathymetry, bottom type, and associated species 

throughout the Great Lakes, and (2) conduct high resolution physical and biological mapping of fish

habitats (e.g. map/monitor spawning substrates; egg and fry production; egg/larvae predators; current

patterns and velocities; and thermal structure).

Aquatic Invasive Species: After identification of high-risk areas, target resources with mapping, database,

and GIS overlay including water quality, use, threatened and endangered species, vectors, and temperature

regimes.

Outreach, communications, collaborations, and engagement

Physical Environment: Key issues in outreach and communications included recognition of a need to

more effectively get lake level variation forecasts to the public, package research and model results in a 

form that can be readily used by managers and decision makers (at regional to local levels), and plan and

conduct research that supports better management.

Water Quantity: The breakout cited critical needs to take full advantage of new communication

technologies and ensure more extensive and effective use of communication networks and better

organization of web information in meeting stakeholder needs with a corresponding greater identification

of end-users, their needs, and feedback. 
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Watershed Hydrology: There was a recognized need to better translate the developing knowledge on

climate change and its likely impacts into changes in the everyday practice of consultants and public 

servants. An important tool for this purpose would be guidelines issued by professional associations, like

the American Society of Civil Engineers and the American Water Works Association, in collaboration

with NOAA, about how to include the uncertain knowledge we have on climate change into infrastructure

planning and operation. This would help consultants and public servants to overcome the lack of common

practices on the subject. Such guidelines should be periodically updated.

An additional instrument that could help in including Climate Change knowledge into present-day

infrastructure planning are the continuous education courses that professionals must take for maintaining 

their licenses. NOAA should work alone or with professional associations to develop courses regarding

the possible climate change impact on hydrology and water quality and how to plan for minimizing their

impact on the society. 

Water Quality and Human Health: There was widespread agreement on the importance of communicating

tangible impacts of climate change to the public to better communicate uncertainties without leading

to hysteria. Other key areas included identification of infrastructure issues for future planning, through 

determining infrastructures such as drinking water intakes that may need to be extended or moved as

a result of water level changes. Another key discussion topic is local health departments, managers,

and local units of government are not aware of the state of science that is being conducted by agencies

such as NOAA, so there is a need to bridge the gap between local health departments and the scientific

community, encourage greater interaction between NOAA and state and regional agencies, and

promote greater reliance on communication technologies through brief bulletins, an email list-serve, 

or a centralized database website. Furthermore, the creation of a centralized database could provide

information on which agencies/organizations are doing certain research, what the progress of the research

is, and how to contact each other for collaboration was discussed as a valuable tool. Outreach in the form

of communicating social science, economic impacts, and risks assessments to scientists and vice versa is 

also needed as well as communicating to the non-scientific community.

Immediate needs include the better coordination of groups working on similar problems or issues and

the centralization of information about people and projects through a website or other electronic forum.

GLANSIS or GLRRIN could serve as the model.

Fish Recruitment and Productivity: There is a need to promote research on climate change impacts on fish 

recruitment and productivity. Some suggestions were (1) continuing education for the media, (2) climate

extension service to work with state climatologists, (3) research national and international outreach,

communications, collaboration, and scientist-stakeholder engagement activities regarding climate change 

and fisheries recruitment, (4) host a scientific symposium on impacts of climate change on the Great

Lakes fishery, (5) increase use of web technologies to disseminate research findings, (6) publish research

findings in peer-reviewed journals.

Aquatic Invasive Species: Key activities cited were the increased production/dissemination of peerreviewed and informal publications, the development of greater coordination among web sites, the

increased use of list serves (e.g. Enviromich), and expanding outreach to explain the algae/quagga mussel

interaction and its impacts.
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Economic/societal value, cost/benefit, and funding

Physical Environment: Given the above recognition of needs for new models and related research,

there was a corresponding need cited to make a strong case to support funding of such work in terms of

economic, societal, and ecological benefits and outcomes. 

Water Quantity: There was a general recognition of a lack of information and research gaps on how water

quantity affects economic vitality and an overall need for documenting economic value of climate change

research (to justify additionally required research funding/staffing).

Watershed Hydrology: Incorporation of the social sciences and a need for cost/benefit ratios under climate 

change scenarios were identified as important areas to fully address watershed hydrology issues.

Water Quality and Human Health: Social science research is vital. Key areas included a need to fully

assess the financial and economic implications of bacterial infections at the community level and the 

effects on human health. End users discussed the need for specific recommendations for how to deal

with and adapt to water quality changes. What are the impacts of climate change on tourism and shipping

channels due to water levels? What are the recommendations for urban infrastructure due to the potential

for more storms or decreased drinking water access? 

Outreach in the form of communicating social science, economic impacts, and risks assessments to 

scientists and vice versa is also needed as well as communicating to the non-scientific community. In

addition, social science research is needed to determine cost and benefits, socioeconomic, and health 

impacts of poor water quality or water accessibility as well as the impact of climate change on economies.

Immediate needs were the socioeconomic and health implications due to a lack of access to water.

Fish Recruitment and Productivity: Assess impacts of climate change on fishery harvest and economically 

important harvested species, evaluate economic impacts on commercial and sport fishing industries and 

the need for modifying regulations, create more opportunities for inter-disciplinary interactions among 

social scientists, limnologists, and aquatic ecologists.

Aquatic Invasive Species: Two key high priority activities suggested by the breakout were (1) meeting

needs for more information on AIS economic and ecological impacts relative to the climate change 

outlook, and (2) recognition that uncertainty, lack of funding, and failure to make an economic case for

AIS/climate change research are barriers to greater stakeholder involvement. 

4. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The physical and biological communities in the Great Lakes have been affected by the variations 

in climate over the last decade. The physical changes in the Great Lakes are noted by higher water

temperatures, less ice cover, increased evaporation, lower water levels, increased dead zone, and frequent,

high-intensity storms. The biological changes are noted by the collapse of Lake Huron’s fisheries, changes

in the food webs, increased beach closures, viral hemorrhagic septicemia, and increased toxic algae.

These physical and biological changes have resulted in damages to both the health and economic wellbeing of the Great Lakes. Understanding, forecasting, and translating the impacts of these changes to

the Great Lakes community will greatly aid stakeholders (commercial power, commercial shipping,
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recreational boaters, beach users, municipal water supplies, fisheries, etc.) in making wise decisions

regarding their use of this vast national resource.

NOAA’s role is critical in mitigating damages to both the health and economic well-being of the Great

Lakes. NOAA can provide the forecasts and monitoring, packaged into useful products and services 

needed in the Great Lakes community. Therefore, it is recommended that:

● NOAA should develop water quality forecasts to address drinking water quality, beach closures, and

harmful algal blooms.

● NOAA should develop long-term (5 to 10 years) water quantity forecasts.

● NOAA should improve flood forecasting.

● NOAA should develop a better observing system equipped with water quality indicators.

● NOAA should translate their forecasts and data acquisition into user-friendly products and services.

● NOAA should work with stakeholders, state, local, and other Federal Agencies to achieve all of the

needs in this report using the best science available. 

To accomplish these recommendations, NOAA can take the following initial steps:

● Establish a Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) element in the Great Lakes that

should include have social scientists, economists, and science-policy employees. These NOAA 

employees can provide needed risk assessments with respect to human health and invasive species as

well as translate NOAA’s forecasts and observation data into user-friendly products and services.

● Invest in supercomputing networks for the Great Lakes. Climate, water quality, food web, and water

quantity models will require high-power computing.

● Invest in Great Lakes observing systems. Water quality buoys need to be deployed at municipal

water intakes, algorithms need to be better refined for satellite observations of HABS, and acoustic

instruments need to be refined for fish recruitment.

Appendices Index

Appendix I - Previous Workshops, Conferences, and Related Reports on Impacts of Climate Change in

the Great Lakes Region.

Appendix II - Full Workshop Agenda.

Appendix III – Listing of Issues, Needs, and Suggestions from First and Second Breakout Sessions

Within the Key Scientific Theme Areas – Physical Environment, Water Quantity, Watershed Hydrology,

Water Quality and Human Health, Fish Recruitment and Productivity, and Aquatic Invasive Species.

Appendix IV - Table listing key issues, needs, activities, and suggestions identified within each of the

overarching subject categories during breakouts of the six Key Scientific Theme Areas.
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Appendix I - Previous Workshops, Conferences, and Related Reports on Impacts of 

Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region

(1)	 Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region – A one-day workshop that brought together

Great Lakes foundations, non-government organizations, agencies, and universities, Flint, Michigan,

June 27, 2008.

http://www.miseagrant.umich.edu/climate/climate-adapting-workshop.html

(2)	 Dempsey, D., J. Elder, and D. Scavia, 2008. Great Lakes Restoration and the Threat of Global

Warming. Healing Our Waters-Great Lakes Coalition.

http://www.healthylakes.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/how-global-warming-report-08.

pdf

(3)	 Wittman, S., 2008. Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region – starting a public discussion,

Summary Report, University of Wisconsin Sea Grant Institute, Publication No. WISCU-W-07-001.

	 Report is a summary of the “Starting a Public Discussion” series of eight seminars on likely impacts

of climate change in Wisconsin and the Great Lakes Region. The seminars were held at seven

Wisconsin locations in 2007.

http://aqua.wisc.edu/publications/ProductDetails.aspx?productID=552

Previous Climate Change Conferences at Michigan State University

(4) 	Climate Change in the Great Lakes – A Conference at Michigan State University, April 9-10, 2008.

http://www.environment.msu.edu/climatechange/presentations08.html

	 Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region – Decision-Making Under Uncertainty, March 15-16,

2007.

http://www.environment.msu.edu/climatechange/presentations07.html

Stakeholder Workshop, December 1, 2005

(5) 	U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2008. Effects of climate change for aquatic invasive

species and implications for management and research. National Center for Environmental 

Assessment, Washington, DC; EPA/600/R-08/014.

http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=188305

(6) 	Stephenson, J.B., 2007. Climate Change – Agencies Should Develop Guidance for Addressing the

Effects on Federal Land and Water Resources. U.S. Government Accountability Office Report to

Congressional Requesters, GAO-07-863.

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07863.pdf

(7) 	U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2008. A screening assessment of the potential impacts

of climate change on combined sewer overflow (CSO) mitigation in the Great Lakes and New

England regions. Global Change Research Program, National Center for Environmental Assessment,

Washington, DC; EPA/600/R-07/033F.

http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=188306
16

(8) 	Kling, G.W., K. Hayhoe, L.B. Johnson, J.J. Magnuson, S. Polasky, S.K. Robinson, B.J. Shuter, M.M.

Wander, D.J. Wuebbles, D.R. Zak, L.R. Lindroth, S.C. Moser, and M.L. Wilson, 2003. Confronting

Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on our Communities and Ecosystems. Union of

Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA and Ecological Society of America, Washington, DC.

http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/glchallengereport.html

	 Note: Updated 2005 Executive Summary of 2003 UCS/ESA Report is at:

http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/GL-Exec-Summary-Update-05-doc.pdf

(9) Sousounis, P.J. and J.M Bisanz (Eds.), 2000. Preparing for a Changing Climate – The Potential

Consequences of Climate Variability and Change; Great Lakes Overview – A Report of the Great

Lakes Regional Assessment Group for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, University of

Michigan, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences Department, Ann Arbor, MI, ISBN 0-9705610-

0-3

http://www.geo.msu.edu/glra/assessment/assessment.html

	 Note: Report summarizes findings from series of six workshops listed below:

Opening Workshop - “Climate Change in the Upper Great Lakes”, May 4-7, 1998, University of

 Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.

Follow-up Workshops - 

(1)	 “Climate Change and Great Lakes Water Levels: What are the potential impacts? What can we do?”

March 30, 2001, USEPA Great Lakes National Program Office, Chicago, IL.

(2)	 “Climate Change and Water Ecology: What are the potential impacts? What can we do?”, June 15,

2001, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

(3)	 “Climate Change and Agriculture in the Great Lakes Region: The Potential Impacts & What We Can

Do.”, March 22, 2002 ,Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI.

(4)	 “Climate Change & Terrestrial Ecosystems of the Great Lakes Region: The Potential Impacts and

What We Can Do”, June 21, 2002, Minnesota Valley Wildlife Refuge, Bloomington, MN.

(5)	 “Climate Change and Winter Tourism: What are the Potential Impacts & What Can We Do.”, 

November 8, 2002, Crystal Mountain Ski Resort, Thompsonville, MI.
17

Appendix II - Full Workshop Agenda

Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Ecosystem - A NOAA Science Needs Assessment 

Workshop to Meet Emerging Challenges

AGENDA – Note: Individual presentations are posted as pdf files at: 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/Programs/climate_change/cc_workshop_agenda.html

TUESDAY - JULY 29, 2008

Current state of scientific knowledge of present and expected future impact of climate change on the

Great Lakes ecosystem, with prime focus on effects in coastal waters and connecting channels.

8:00 AM – Check-in / Continental Breakfast SNR&E Commons

8:30 AM –Introduction / Welcome

Dr. Stephen B. Brandt, Director, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL)

Note: All July 29th and 30th presentations and panels will be held in Rm. 1040 Dana Building, School of

Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan Central Campus, Ann Arbor, MI

 

8:45 AM – Science Panel #1 - Physical Environment - Seasonal Warming/Cooling, Vertical

Temperature Profiles and Ice Extent/ Duration

Session Chair –Dr. Jia Wang, Ice Climatologist, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

8:45 AM – Dr. Xuezhi Bai, Research Investigator, University of Michigan School of Natural Resources

and Environment/Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research. Interannual Variability 

of Lake Ice and Internal Climate Teleconnection Patterns (Co-Author: J. Wang)

9:00 AM – Dr. Eric Anderson, National Research Council Post Doctoral Fellow, NOAA Great Lakes

Environmental Research Laboratory. Hydrodynamic Modeling and Forecasting in the Great Lakes (CoAuthors: D.J. Schwab, D.J. Holtschlag, and G.A.Lang)

9:15 AM – Dr. Jia Wang, Ice Climatologist, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.

Projections of the Great Lakes Climate in the 21st Century and Coupled Lake-Ice Modeling

9:45 AM - Break

10:00 AM - Science Panel #2 - Water Quantity – Lake Levels and Flows in Connecting Channels -

Session Chair – Ms. Cynthia Sellinger, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

10:00 AM - Dr. Thomas E. Croley II, Senior Research Hydrologist, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental 

Research Laboratory. Great Lakes Sensitivity to Paleo Climate Change 

10:15 AM - Ms. Cynthia Sellinger, Hydrologist, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research 

Laboratory. The Rise and the Fall of Great Lakes Water Levels
18

10:30 AM - Dr. Brent Lofgren, Physical Scientist, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research

Laboratory. Modeling to Address Open Questions on the Future of Great Lakes Climate

10:45 AM - Q&A / Discussion

11:00AM – Science Panel #3 - Watershed Hydrology 

Session Chair – Dr. Carlo DeMarchi, Research Investigator, Cooperative Institute for Limnology and 

Ecosystems Research

11:00 AM – Dr. Norman Grannemann, U.S. Geological Survey, Great Lakes Program Coordinator.

Changes in Groundwater Conditions from Possible Changes in Climatic Conditions in the Great Lakes 

Basin

11:15 AM – Dr. Veronica Webster Griffis, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan

Technological University. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood Frequency and Other Surface 

Water Phenomena

11:30 AM - Dr. Chansheng He, Department of Geography, Western Michigan University. Climate Change 

and Non-Point Source Pollution in the Great Lakes Basin: Opportunities and Challenges (Co-Authors:

T.E. Croley, II and C. DeMarchi)

12:00 PM – Lunch – Catered buffet SNR&E Commons

1:00 PM - Science Panel #4 - Water Quality and Human Health 

Session Chair – Ms. Sonia Joseph, Outreach Coordinator, Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and 

Human Health/Michigan Sea Grant

1:00 PM – Dr. Michael Murray, Staff Scientist, National Wildlife Federation, Great Lakes Natural

Resources Office. Climate Change, Water Quality and Human Health: Some Research and Policy 

Questions

1:15 PM – Dr. Donna Kashian, Research Investigator, Cooperative Institute for Limnology and

Ecosystems Research. Climate-induced Changes in Organic Material Influences Contaminant Exposure 

in Aquatic Systems

1:30 PM - Dr. Carlo DeMarchi, Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research. Potential 

Impacts of Climate Change on Pathogen and Pesticide Contamination of Coastal Water (Co-Authors:

T.E. Croley, II, T.S. Hunter, and C. He)

2:00 PM – Science Panel #5 - Fish Recruitment and Productivity 

Session Chair – Dr. Doran Mason, Research Ecologist, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research 

Laboratory

2:00 PM – Dr. Edward S. Rutherford, Associate Research Scientist, School of Natural Resources and

Environment, University of Michigan. Impact of Climate Change on Salmon Recruitment in the Great 

Lakes
19

2:15 PM – Dr. Henry Vanderploeg, Research Ecologist, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research

Laboratory. Climate Change, Physical-Biological Coupling, and the Resource Mismatch Hypothesis for 

Plankton and Fish (Co-Authors: J.F. Cavaletto, J.R. Liebig, S.A. Ludsin, and C.P. Madenjian)

2:30 PM – Dr. Doran Mason, Research Ecologist, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research

Laboratory. Climate Change: Implications for Fish Growth Performance in the Great Lakes (Co-authors:

S.B. Brandt, M.J. McCormick, B.M. Lofgren, T. Hunter, and J.A. Tyler)

3:00 PM – Break

3:15 PM – Science Panel #6 Aquatic Invasive Species 

Session Chair – Dr. Rochelle Sturtevant, Great Lakes Regional Extension Educator, Michigan Sea Grant 

3:15 PM – Dr. Cindy Kolar, Assistant Program Coordinator, Invasive Species Program, U.S. Geological

Survey. USGS Research on Invasive Species and Climate Change in the Great Lakes

3:30 PM - Dr. Henry Vanderploeg, Research Ecologist, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research

Laboratory. Surprising Synergies Between Invasive Species and Climate Impacts (Co-Authors: S.A.

Pothoven, G.L. Fahnenstiel, and T.F. Nalepa)

3:45 PM – Dr. J. Michael Campbell, Department of Biology, Mercyhurst College. Can Climate Change 

Make the Aquatic Invasive Species Problems in the Great Lakes Any Worse Than They Already Have 

Been?

4:15 PM – Closing remarks and announcements

5:00 PM – Public Keynote Address, 1800 Chemistry Building – Dr. Henry N. Pollack, Professor of

Geophysics, Department of Geology, University of Michigan. Hockey Sticks and Politics: Science in the 

Arena of National Climate Policy

6:00 – 8:00 PM - Reception – SNR&E Commons

WEDNESDAY - JULY 30, 2008

Key stakeholder issues and concerns in confronting anticipated impacts of climate change on the Great

Lakes ecosystem - meeting new challenges in use, management, protection and restoration of resources.

8:00 Continental Breakfast, SNR&E Commons

8:30 AM – Morning Welcome - Dr. Stephen B. Brandt, Director NOAA Great Lakes Environmental

Research Laboratory (GLERL)

 

8:45 AM – Dr. Rosina M. Bierbaum, Dean, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of

Michigan. Climate Change: From Science to Solutions

9:45 AM – Break
20

10:00 AM - Stakeholder Panel #1 Recreation and Tourism

Moderator: Ms. Melinda Huntley, Ohio Sea Grant

10:00 AM - Mr. Andrew Struck, Director of Planning and Parks, Ozaukee County Planning and Parks

Department, Port Washington, WI. Ozaukee County, A Coastal Community Case Study: Potential Impacts 

on Water-based Recreation and Tourism

10:15 AM – Dr. John Coluccy, Manager of Conservation Planning, Duck Unlimited Inc. Conserving 

Waterfowl and Wetlands in the Great Lakes Amid Climate Change

 

10:30 AM – Ms. Rachel McNinch, Center for Water Sciences, Michigan State University. Climate 

Change and Water Safety in the Great Lakes

11:00 AM – Stakeholder Panel #4 Land Use and Coastal Zone Managers

Moderator: Mr. Frank Lichtkoppler

11:15 AM - Ms. Catherine Ballard, Chief, Michigan Coastal Zone Management Program.

Coastal Management Considerations in Adapting to Climate Change; Preparing for a Climate-Resilient 

Coast

11:30 AM – Ms. Sandra Kosek-Sills, Coastal and Estuarine Land Conservation Program, Coordinator,

Office of Coastal Management, Ohio Department of Natural Resources. Climate Change Challenges for 

Coastal Management in Ohio

11:45 AM – Dr. James Hurley, Assistant Director for Research and Outreach, Wisconsin Sea Grant.

Sea Grant Planning and the Sustainable Coastal Development Focus Area: Implications from Climate 

Change

12:00 PM – Lunch – Catered buffet, SNR&E Commons

1:00PM – Stakeholder Panel #2 Commercial and Municipal Water Users 

Moderator: Ms. Sonia Joseph, Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and Human Health

1:00 PM – Mr. Jon Bloemker, District Supervisor, Saginaw District Office, Michigan Department of

Environmental Quality. Potential Climate Change Impacts to Industry and Municipal Water Users

1:15 PM – Mr. Abed R. Houssari, Manager of Environmental Management and Resources, DTE Energy.

Climate Change Challenges for Electrical Utilities

2:00 PM - Stakeholder Panel #3 Regional, State, Tribal and Local Policymakers and Managers

Moderator: Ms. Barbara Liukkonen, Minnesota Sea Grant

2:00 PM – Mr. Tim Eder, Executive Director, Great Lakes Commission. Climate Change Challenges and 

Opportunities: Perspectives of a Regional Organization

2:15 PM – Mr. John Swanson, Executive Director, NW Indiana Regional Planning Commission. Planning 

for NW Indiana Shoreline Areas
21

2:30 PM – Mr. Frank Lichtkoppler, Extension Specialist, Ohio Sea Grant. Potential Climate Impacts 

Affecting Fishery Stakeholders

3:00 PM – Break

3:15 PM - Dr. Thomas R. Karl, Director, NOAA National Climatic Data Center. Weather and Climate 

Extremes in a Changing Climate

4:00 PM – Dr. Karl, Update on Present Status of NOAA National Climate Service

4:15 PM – Day 2 Closing Remarks and Announcements

4:30 PM – Adjourn

THURSDAY - July 31, 2008

8:00 AM – Continental Breakfast, SNR&E Commons

8:30 AM – Pre-Breakout Briefing/Announcements SNR&E Rm. 1040

Ms. Sonia Joseph, Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and Human Health

9:00 AM - Begin six concurrent facilitated breakout sessions

(1) 	Physical Environment - SNR&E Rm.1028

Facilitator - Mr. Frank Lichtkoppler 

	 Recorder – Mr. Ari Preston

 

(2) 	Water Quantity – SNR&E Rm.1024

	 Facilitator – Ms. Melinda Huntley

	 Recorder – Mr. Sean Bratton

(3) 	Watershed Hydrology – SNR&E Rm. Rm.1046

	 Facilitator - Ms. Leslie Dorworth

	 Recorder – Ms. Katie Coakley

 

(4) 	Water Quality and Human Health – SNR&E Rm.1040

	 Facilitator – Ms. Sonia Joseph

	 Recorder – Ms. Katie Bush

(5) Fish Recruitment and Productivity – SNR&E Rm.1064

Facilitator - Ms. Margaret Lansing

Recorder- Ms. Ann Marshall

(6) Aquatic Invasive Species – SNR&E Rm.1006

Facilitator - Dr. Rochelle Sturtevant

	 Recorder – Ms. Lynne Chaimowitz
22

10:30 AM – Break

10:45 AM – Continue six concurrent facilitated breakout sessions

12:00 PM - Buffet Lunch, SNR&E Commons

1:00 PM – Joint Summary Session, SNR&E Rm. 1040

(Reports from six Breakouts and General Discussion) Ms. Sonia Joseph, Moderator

2:45 PM - Closing Remarks

3:00 PM - Adjourn
23

Appendix III – Listing of Issues, Needs, and Suggestions from First and Second Breakout 

Sessions Within the Key Scientific Theme Areas – Physical Environment, Water Quantity, 

Watershed Hydrology, Water Quality and Human Health, Fish Recruitment and 

Productivity, and Aquatic Invasive Species

Physical Environment – First Breakout

Information and Research Gaps / Needs

Relating ice to ecosystems, fisheries, energy balance, and water balance

Downscaling to local level

More specific inputs to run forecast models

Forecasting lake level variation (getting it to the public)

How to use large scale modeling

Boundary conditions for models

Better data (too many gaps) to help us better understand overall trends

How ice affects erosion

Regional forecasting for nearshore currents

Defining variables for research

No ice data in GLCFS (Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System)

Priority Areas

Immediate Needs (2-4 years)

Funding

NASA/NOAA not interested in data base development and improving system

Raw data not compatible.

Research in form that is usable for managers (to save time)

Managers don’t know what to request or where to go

More networking, communication

Clearing house

Help managers find the data they need

Improve ecosystem, ice, water modeling

Biological and physical models

Long-term Needs (5-7 Years)

Build up better relationships between universities and GLERL

Close water balance, incorporate entire watershed

Regional Earth-System Model (hydrology, ice, ecosystem, hydrodynamic, atmospheric modeling) for

Great Lakes

1-2 km resolution for lakes, 5 km atmosphere

Global  Regional  Lake  Local

Funding for Earth-System model

Better collaboration with Canada (difficult).

Training Needs

Workshops like this one to get up to speed

Bring managers into workshops earlier so there is better communication
24

Bring in people from Natural Resource Agencies. Need resource managers to help define what is needed

in decision making (DNR,CZM,Utilities)

GLOS has useful information (trying to increase database)

Deliver climate forecast information to local government

Stakeholder Engagement -Who Are They and How Do You Engage Them in the Issue?

What do they use it for?

Communication gap

Science wants feedback (lacking)

Coastal management in Silver Springs, MD

Other agencies, local government in Gulf Coast

EMS  first response, hazard mitigation plan, climate change impacts

Getting data from Canadians

GLERL – Army Corps of Engineers, USGS

Wisconsin - state DNR

Local  Agency/Government/Public

Scientific Products, Services and Expertise

Results on internet

Field site (local concerns)

Customized for locals (sea grant/extension)

Direct contact

Training  local office staff

FEMA hard to get in touch with

Scientists need intermediate contact

Communication of New Information, Tools, and Technologies

Email update of research status (distribution lists) – avoid overload

Websites (provided in emails)

Get feedback on data

Phone for direct contact

Monthly newsletter (GLERL)

Possible quarterly newsletter?

Fitting climate change into larger framework of ecosystem management

Add climate change information to existing media outlets (magazines, newspapers)

More outreach to avoid time gap

Conclusion

Better coastal processes information

Research to support better management

2-way communication system

Great Lakes coastal erosion gap (like AK)

Loss of wetlands – WI, NY 60% hard surface (need data)

Make case for funding and downscaling

Great Lakes hydrological model (1 watershed)

Feedback loop
25

2-D  3-D GLCFS – lake by lake (waves, surface temperature, profiles of temperature, currents, water

levels)

Digital bathymetric map

Suggestions that storms will be more intense – forecast modeling?

Empirical, fast statistical modeling

Physical Environment – Second Breakout

Products / Services Scale (temporal, 

spatial, geographical)

Collaborations, 

Integration, and 

Coordination

Value to Society

Lake level unified 

forecasting model

(climate change)

100 m coastline, entire 

watershed (up to year)

universities, USGS,

coastal management

help decision makers 

(management)

Unified data base

lake-region wide US,

Canada

(back as far as possible)

US, Canada, GLERL,

universities

improve research 

efficiency

Unified Great Lakes 3-D

ice-hydrodynamic model

lake wide

(up to 1 week)

point source, light source

GLERL useful for water balance,

entire watershed dynamic

Feedback loop Great Lakes region

GLERL, Sea Grant, 

coastal managers, 

universities

improves products

3-D ecosystem model 

(physical + ice +

biological)

hindcast, lake by lake →

local (downscale)

universities, GLERL, 

Sea Grant, USGS, EPA

improving product 

(making it useful)

Network outreach

(needs assessment) lake by lake → local universities, GLERL, Sea Grant, USGS, EPA

making products more 

useful 

Downscaling climate to

regional impact lake by lake universities, GLERL, Sea Grant, USGS, EPA making product useful

Direct contact (training) local level

universities, GLERL, 

Sea Grant, coastal 

training program

better understanding →

better decision making

Morphological models 

(erosion)

local level – lake level

(decades)

universities, GLERL, 

Sea Grant, USGS

better planning, design for 

coastal structures

improvement of product

Ice modeling and 

forecasting

hindcast, lake by lake →

entire watershed

GLERL, universities, 

NIC (ice center),

USACE

primary productivity 

for fisheries, useful for 

navigation, coastal erosion, 

effect on storms, lake 

effect snowfall
26

Water Quantity – First Breakout 

Information and Research Gaps / Needs

Water quantity effects on economic vitality (ie. Shipping channels and ports)

Gaps in efficient ways of cost effective disposing of dredge materials (ie.PCB’s)

Water balance future of great lakes is highly uncertain

Help user groups face uncertainty

Long term precipitation trends

Monitoring methods such as radar coverage

No evaporation pans, or equipment to measure evaporation / evapotranspiration

Speak to people making decisions on quantity of water (waterways)

Water level forecasts (long term), need more efficient models

Better understanding on impacts of extreme atmospheric events

Understanding tolerance level of uncertainty within user groups

More plausible time series models (precipitation, temperature)

How sensitive are the lakes to temperature increases

Which impacts have a larger influence - temperature increases or precipitation decrease/increases?

High res. topography/digital elevation maps for modeling purposes

Ground water (aquifer) /flood plan mapping

Practical applications of research

Short term/long range forecasting

Defining/forecasting effects of extreme events in terms of low-flow, base-flow, extreme flood events.

Better understanding of impacts of channelization and changes in inflows and outflows

Thermal structure of the lakes

Better access in use of community grass roots monitoring programs (ie. Friends of....)

Priority Areas

Immediate Needs (2-4 Years)

Research identifying economic value of climate change research needs (justify investment in research

needs) (1)

Better understanding of prediction of extreme events and quantifying impact of land use alternatives. (2)

Establishing better observing/reporting networks and model outputs (3)

Additional research teams/funding and comprehensive plan

Research on better understanding decision making process of users

Are the water levels going to go up or down (5 to 10 year increments) and what is the uncertainty

Long-term Needs (5-7 Years)

More consistent, effective, and continuous monitoring

Direct measurement technology

Alignment of polices with current capabilities

Climate model capabilities for 5-10 year scale

Research needs into the impacts of water quantity removal from the basin (2007 Ground Water

Conservation Advisory Committee)

Demand forecasting

Demand management research
27

Training Needs

Coastal Services Center workshops/on the ground training

User/science combined workshops (translate uncertainty)

Congressional staff training

Communicate importance of Great Lakes to entities

Finding synergy between local communities training needs and data needs

More extension and outreach

Stakeholder Engagement – Who Are They and How Do You Engage Them in the Issue?

Better understanding of available data and stakeholder networks.

Fisheries

Ports

Marinas

Resource managers

Public health

Property owners

Public utilities

Tourism 

Emergency managers

Planning/zoning

Local/state/federal government officials 

Consultants 

Recreational boaters

Scientific Products, Services and Expertise - What and where have you sought scientific products, 

services, expertise?

Need for a gateway to effectively deliver services

Need to continually reach out to direct stakeholders

Lake level/forecast information

Coastal States Organizations

Seamless networks between NOAA agencies

Communication of New Information, Tools, and Technologies

Need to more/better use communication networks

Better organized material on web

FAQ sites

Better product development 

Focus on information content vs. agency identification

Be more aware of user needs and capabilities 

Importance of peer review and reliability

Taking advantages of new technology and participatory

Increase human touch 

Need to communicate non-computer literate stakeholders

More input from users

Conclusions
28

Water Quantity - Second Breakout 

Products/services

Scale (temporal, 

spatial, 

geographical)

Collaborations, integration, and 

coordination Value to society

Producing water level

2-3 year outlooks

Lake wide national

outreach focus 

(individual lakes)

- USGS

- Environment Canada

- Regional models driven by global 

projections 

- Sea Grant 

- State Coastal Zone Management

- Stronger connection to core networks 

- NERR 

- Bi-national inter-agency product

- Influence on policy

- Increase awareness of

issue 

- Allocation of budget

- Minimizing economic

loss

- Identifying nation/international focus of the Great 

Lakes 

Product to help users/

planners adapt to 

extreme events and 

plan mitigation 

- Local

- 2 to 3 year reaction 

times

- County engineers 

- Local watershed groups

- Emergency management teams 

- FEMA

- EPA

- State geological 

- Meteorology community 

- Utilities

- State environmental agencies 

- Minimize loss of life and

property 

- Watershed management

programs

Fully support 

implementation of 

IOOS observing 

systems on the Great 

Lakes

- Basin wide

- Lake wide

- USGS

- Fish and wildlife service

- EPA

- Environment Canada 

- Public utilities

- Saves property and lives 

- Improves forecasts

- Reduces uncertainty

- Help planning for future
29

Watershed Hydrology – First Breakout 

Information and Research Gaps / Needs

Public and construction sector need access to education/information

Inadequate information pertaining to water quality, measuring precipitation, stream flow gauges

Social sciences are missing

Priority Areas

Immediate Needs (2-4 Years)

Studies on cost/benefit ratio under climate change scenarios

Design infrastructure based on long term scale

Model Integration - Climate watershed model for all Great Lakes

Improve extreme weather event forecasting - drought, floods, air quality

Project changes in watershed parameters

Crops/agriculture, erosion, natural vegetation

Urban growth model - land usage, infrastructure, parking lots

How to mitigate flood peaks without building dams -

Decreasing abrupt flooding

Reestablishing wetlands and rain gardens

Wetland restoration and flood attenuation in important areas 

Which part of wetlands should be restored?

Management of pollution sources and water quantity

Better models/practices for NP loadings in response to increased precipitation

Collaboration - 

USGS

USDA

USACE

EPA

State and Local Agencies

Universities

NGO’s

Coast Guard

FEMA

Park Services

Training Needs

Stakeholder Engagement

Scientific Products, Services, and Expertise

Communication of New Information, Tools, and Technologies

Conclusion
30

Watershed Hydrology - Second Breakout 

Products/Services Scale (temporal, 

spatial, geographical)

Collaborations, 

integration, and 

coordination

Value to Society

Improve floodplain 

maps/ flood 

forecasting systems

Dependent on scale of 

community

USGS, stream gauges and

cooperators, FEMA, insurance 

industry

Personal safety, economic

security, minimizing

damage to infrastructure

Institutionalize water

quality models

Great Lakes, 10’s of

square kilometers

Inter-agency collaboration, 

state environmental agencies, 

EPA, Coast Guard, USGS,

NWS

Beach closures, quality of

drinking water

Present and projected

climate maps Global to state to zip code Universities, USDA, Park

Service

Public education,

agriculture and forestry 

industries, research

Water Quality and Human Health – First Breakout 

Information and Research Gaps / Needs

Quantify nutrient loading to watersheds and quantity of water

Groundwater nutrient concentrations: sub-marine groundwater discharge

Climate change may affect amount of exchange

Frequency, duration and intensity of bacteria affecting beach closures

Survival of bacteria

Financial implications and economic implications of bacterial infections at community level and effects 

on human health

Incorporate more physical information for predictive models for watersheds, algal blooms, etc

Hydrologic information

Integrate data along standards to make more comparable: include similar parameters across models

What are the recommendations for urban infrastructure?

Fish populations affected by contaminants and implications for subsistence fishing and lower

socioeconomic communities

Specific recommendations for dealing with water quality changes: how to adapt

Communicate tangible impacts of climate change to the public

Concern over lake levels-affecting tourism, shipping channels

New water treatment techniques: treating contaminants like microcystis

New demands on water treatment infrastructure due to climate change and potential for more storms

Integrate tributary and watershed data into problems in bays and lakes

Influence of climate on toxic chemical cycling and impact on human exposure

Quantify changes in potential health effects: water and airborne

Exposure routes and vectors affecting human health

Develop link with local policy makers about scientific information-best ways to communicate clearly

without losing the complexity of the problem
31

Decision making tools policy makers use and what are the implications for human health

Assessing cost/benefit

How policy makers prioritize

Priority Areas

Immediate Needs (2-4 Years)

Better coordinating of groups working on similar problems or issues

Centralize information about people and projects (website)- invasive species, using GLANSIS or

GLRRIN as a model 

Document and organize all the data we have about algal blooms to see if there really are trends due to

climate change-an inventory

Characterize and prioritize potential health risks from toxic chemical cycling, water treatment etc to see

which may be most harmful

Utilizing predictive tools to develop effective models

Experimental research-what are the environmental conditions leading to algal blooms

Develop risk assessment for potential impacts-human health, economic impacts

Develop specific climate change scenarios to define the problem (fish harvesting, algal blooms, beach

closures)

What are specific consequences (water flow, water quality)

What are human needs and how might they change?

Prioritize those needs

Address issues of infrastructure for future planning (utility, municipal planning)

What are the needs of local governments?

User-based needs assessments

Assessing water intakes in the lakes and wastewater discharges

Inventories of shipping channels, marinas-which may be most affected by lowered water levels

What could happen?

Socioeconomic and health implications of lack of access to water

Information on watershed discharges affecting water quantity-water intakes

Long-term Needs (5-7 Years)

Responding to current findings

Continue sustainability of current quality of life-recreation, commerce

Cultural and behavioral changes to mitigate effects of impacts

Energy conservation, water usage etc

Help the public understand effects of climate change

Consequences of use of biofuels as an example

Develop greater public transportation infrastructure

Cost and planning for developing new infrastructure in response to climate change

Develop information on water elevation levels

Effectiveness of best-use practices in minimizing human health risks

Training Needs
32

Stakeholder Engagement

Research Community

Community and local health departments-bridge gap between local policy makers and scientific research

Assess water users and their needs-beach users, anglers, recreational users etc.

Engage local, state officials, elected officials

Economic development agencies

Non-profits, watershed groups, outreach to faith community, economically disadvantaged

Opening communication between conflicting groups, eliminate distrust

Building collaboration between development and environment groups

Engage members of groups (Sierra Club, other NGOs etc) who are ready and willing to take action

Scientific Products, Services, and Expertise

Infrastructure needs come from EPA reports, regional councils, regional authorities

Techniques and effectiveness of infrastructure needs from consultants and private sector

Executive summaries

Web-based searches

Media reports raise public interest

Scientific information from technical reports, professional journals

Regional partnerships and information sharing

Water and wastewater utilities, marinas, port authorities

Personal contact with researchers-understand what may not have worked in the past

Observations and anecdotal reports for additional information

Federal and State agencies

NOAA Communication of New Information, Tools, and Technologies

Have NOAA people interact with state and regional agencies

Personal contact to share NOAA’s information

Explain what is new on the outreach side to the researchers and what’s new with researchers on the

outreach end

Give people information directly-brief bulletins

Outreach to non-scientific community

Email similar to GLNPO-announce upcoming events

Conclusion
33

Water Quality and Human Health - Second Breakout 

Products/services

Scale (temporal, 

spatial, 

geographical)

Collaborations, 

integration, and 

coordination

Value to society

Data collection on nutrient 

loading where there are

gaps from all possible 

sources

Coastal zones,

nearshore

Federal agencies and 

universities, state 

agencies

Nutrient loading affects 

water quality, fish

populations, algal blooms

Data Needs:

Frequency, concentration,

speciation of bacteria 

relating to beach closures

Sources: Non-point, sewers,

watershed sources, human

and non-human

Utilize models, raw data

Beach by beach specific

Watershed by watershed

Weekly/Daily during

recreational season

State and local health 

departments and units of 

government, state EPA,

USGS, beach managers

Economic impacts, human 

health protection

Sources (point and nonpoint) and pathways of

chemical pollutants and 

environmental factors

Lake, river, tributary, 

coastal area wide

Monthly, storm event 

related

International 

collaborations, state, 

federal, industry, IJC, 

watershed groups

Human health, economic 

risks, affect on algal 

blooms (phosphorous)

Develop sensor technology 

for monitoring beach 

bacteria levels

Continuous data stream Universities, USGS,

local authorities, state Human health risks

Predictive model assessing

the effect of increased 

storm/rainfall events on 

CSO plans and long term 

control plans

Individual wastewater

utility

Yearly (individual storm

trends) or seasonally as

it relates to storm events

EPA, city planners and

public works, regional

planning authorities, 

state

Protect drinking water,

beach closings, efficient 

resource use

Predictive model for

assessing impacts of climate 

change on overall water

quality including biological

and chemical, physical 

parameters

Lake regions, multicounties (e.g. Lake

Erie Eastern, Central, 

Western basins)

State and federal EPA,

IJC, health departments, 

agriculture extension

How we may need to adapt

to climate change
34

Fish Recruitment and Productivity – First Breakout

Information and Research Gaps / Needs

Understanding the coupling of climate change on Regional and basin scale to fisheries recruitment 

and production:

Continue long term Ecological Long Term Monitoring studies/data sets, and integrate new long term

studies, (e.g. seasonal (weekly to bi weekly) inter-disciplinary studies on other trophic levels, physics,

and chemistry).

Improve collaborations with other Great Lakes research institutions.

Link physical and biological sciences together towards understanding and predicting fish recruitment and

productivity.

Quantify seasonal variation in density and distribution of fish life stages and food web interactions to

address recruitment hypotheses.

Identify and quantify linkages (in transport of nutrients, sediments and biota) between inshore and

offshore zones.

Document extremes in inter-annual variability across the food web and physical environment.

Develop a predictive understanding of habitat shifts and range expansions due to landuse and climate 

changes.

Understand the effects of climate change on fish diseases (frequency, magnitude, and potentially new

diseases) and existing and potentially new invasive species.

Develop short term hypothesis-driven studies and models (statistical models, simulation models, food

web models, bio-physical coupling models).

Produce comprehensive hi-resolution mapping efforts, e.g. bathymetry, bottom type, and species

associations.

Pay increased attention to watershed-Great Lakes linkages.

Priority Areas

Immediate Needs (1-2 Years).

Identify indicator fish species most vulnerable to climate change impacts.

Synthesize current knowledge re: fish recruitment and productivity via a special journal issue that

considers impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes.

Quantify economic impacts of climate change on commercial industry, sports fishery and the need to

modify outdated regulations.

Immediate Needs (2-5 Years)

High resolution mapping of critical habitat, e.g. spawning success, thermal structure.

Understand how interannual variability in the physical environment may impact current food web

dynamics?

Determine the impacts of ice cover on fish recruitment and production (especially Lake Erie).

Determine the importance of nearshore zones for fish recruitment and how this affects offshore aquatic

communities.

Changes on fishery harvest and its impact on economically important species.

Importance of ultraviolet radiation and deep light penetration on growth and survival of plankton and fish

early life stages.

Understand factors influencing the spatial distributions of fishes at various life stages.

Quantify interannual variability in the carrying capacity of the lakes to support fish production

Role of nearshore and offshore benthic productivity pathways and implications.
35

Long-term Needs (5-10 Years)

Meeting long-term needs will be facilitated by perpetuation of long term data sets, design for minimalist

research program, commitment for funding and personnel, proactive approach, a long-term scientific 

vision beyond tenure of leadership, and infrastructure improvements to make better use of existing field 

stations. Examples of long-term surveys to address information needs include USGS-GLSC trawl survey,

and Oneida Lake. 

Priority areas:

Couple regional climate models with 3-D physical lake models and stream habitat for fish recruitment

dynamics.

Determine how wetlands may change due to anticipated large scale changes in land use, and how this will

influence fish recruitment and productivity.

Evaluate current fishery programs, e.g. lamprey controls, stocking programs, species restoration, 

invasives in the context of climate change senenarios.

Make forecasts from bio-physical models driven by various climate change scenarios, and use these 

forecasts to develop probabilistic management strategy.

Develop adaptive management scenarios for climate change, e.g., fish stocking at different locations, 

preserving critical fish habitats.

Determine the synergistic effects of climate change and other environmental stressors (e.g. nutrient

loading, invasive species, fishing, contaminants, etc) on aquatic food webs and fisheries.

Determine impacts of climate change on the lower food web.

Role of nearshore benthic productivity pathways and implications.

Training Needs

Improve opportunities for interactions amongst disciplines, e.g. bring in sociologists, economists, 

climatologists.

Communications skills in short term training sessions, e.g. continuing education workshops for media,

press, and mapping.

Add courses in fisheries climatology to existing university programs in climate change and aquatic

ecology and fisheries; create cross-disciplinary internships for study of climate change impacts on

fisheries.

NOAA headquarters management development programs: sponsored training: cross line office, cross

discipline, do something in climate context.

Climate extension service, interact with state climatologists.

Learn from other national and international programs on climate change and fisheries.

Stakeholder Engagement

Stakeholders include management agencies, fisheries industry, anglers, charter fisheries, duck hunters, 

bird watchers, educators at all levels, industry, farmers, developers, property owners, coastal

communities, decision makers, politicians.

Engage stakeholders through media, existing outlets e.g. NGO’s, Sea Grant.

Assessments should be geared towards stakeholders, e.g. documents on-line.

Scientists should brief high level groups annually (state level government, Science Advisory Board,

Natural Resource Commission).

Provide Ecosystem Forecasts for different interest groups. Identify needs and interests of various groups

and what information they would like to know (e.g. forecast where fish are for anglers).
36

Communicate long-term data trends to stakeholders - this will help stimulate public support for funding;

example: Michigan DNR provides red flag reports on an annual basis to characterize health of salmon

fisheries and food webs. Provide climate report cards.

Engage stakeholders thru media, existing outlets (e.g. NGO’s, Sea Grant).

Provide assessments geared towards stakeholders (e.g. documents on-line).

Scientists should provide annual briefings to high level management groups (state government, Science

Advisory Boards, Natural Resource Commission).

Scientific Products, Services and Expertise

Deliver information to decision makers to facilitate good decision making about quotas, make fisheries

sustainable.

Use existing organizations and mechanisms that are charged with communicating (ex. NGOs, Sea Grant)

Use existing venues, but bring inter-disciplinary groups together on a regular basis (climatologists, social

scientists, aquatic ecologists, limnologists).

Scientific symposium on implications of climate change on Great Lakes fishery.

NOAA Communication of New Information, Tools, and Technologies

Designate as new theme area at various agencies, mention in call for proposals (Sea Grant, Great Lakes

Fisheries Commission, Great Lakes Fishery Trust).

Improve/Increase use of web technologies to deliver results of research.

Use or develop a shared information portal among different agencies (could be Great Lakes Information

Network site) which attracts funding.

Write peer reviewed journal articles.

Create an endowed chair in climate change studies at academic institutions in Great Lakes basin.

Conclusion
37

Fish Recruitment and Productivity - Second Breakout 

Products/services Scale (temporal, 

spatial, geographical)

Collaborations, 

integration, and 

coordination

Value to society

Satellite measures 

of water color for

chlorophyll-a

Lake wide, 0.5 - 1 km

resolution

Ground truthing calibration 

on transects and fixed 

stations.

Span state and federal 

agencies, universities, Great 

Lakes Observing System 

(GLOS)

Primary production

data will facilitate more

accurate forecasts of fish 

recruitment and production 

for managers

Coastwatch web site

http://coastwatch.glerl.

noaa.gov

Advance Very High

Resolution radiometer 

AVHRR, etc.

Need higher resolution 

depiction, especially 

nearshore 

Span state and federal 

agencies, universities, Great 

Lakes Observing System 

(GLOS).

Shipping industry

to supply data

- Recreational boaters and 

anglers

- Charter Fishing Industry

- Scientists

- Law enforcement

agencies

- Educators

Global Regional 

Climate Change Model By lake and basin wide NOAA Climate Groups, Environment Canada

All of above, plus shipping 

and boating industry, 

weather forecasters

Sub-models of above: 

Statistical models: look 

at El Nino, La Nina

By lake and basin wide

OMNR, 

NOAA Climate Group

Span state and federal, 

provincial, tribal agencies, 

universities

Weather forecasters,

Scientists

3-D hydrodynamic 

modeling

- Increase number of 

strata.

- Adaptive gridding for 

nearshore versus offshore

- Improve vertical water

movement

- Turbulence coefficient

- Bottom boundary 

exchange

- Improved 3D Temp.

Ground truthing calibration 

on transects and fixed 

stations

Span state and federal, 

provincial, tribal agencies, 

universities, GLOS

Resource managers,

property owners,

water users,

law enforcement,

EPA, anglers,

academic community
38

Products/services Scale (temporal, 

spatial, geographical)

Collaborations, 

integration, and 

coordination

Value to society

Bio-physical food 

web model (fish

recruitment, using 3-D 

hydrodynamic model

See above

- Ground-truthing, 

calibration on transects and 

fixed stations

- Short term hypothesis 

driven research 

(mechanisms and processes

- Span state and federal, 

provincial, tribal agencies, 

universities, GLOS,

Scientists, Resource 

managers, EPA, Anglers,

academic community

State of the art 

sampling technology 

(nets, sensors,

acoustics, optics, towed

vehicles, Autonomous 

Underwater Vehicles

(AUVs), buoys, ROVs

- Milli-seconds – years

(all)

- cm to km

- affordable technology

Span state and federal, 

provincial, tribal agencies, 

universities, GLOS, 

industry, technology 

developers

All of the above

High resolution habitat 

mapping (physical and

biological)

1 meter Scientists and managers Developers, managers, 

scientists

Improved Technology: 

observation platforms 

(towed vehicles, AUVs,

buoys, acoustics: 

improving realtime, near real-time 

information delivery, 

add more sensors 

Fixed station

Spatial res: cm to 10s of 

meters

Temporal: seconds to 

hours

Span state and federal, 

provincial, tribal agencies, 

universities, GLOS

Developers, managers, 

scientists, and commercial 

harvesters

Service: Rapid delivery 

of information using 

traditional sampling 

techniques via most

appropriate medium 

Meters to km

Span state and federal, 

provincial, tribal agencies, 

universities, GLOS,

Provides information

needed for science, 

management, and safe and 

efficient commerce 

Forecast fish 

recruitment and 

productivity, as a 

function of climate 

change scenarios

Annual

Scientists, managers, 

harvesters, coastal 

communities, planners

Managers, anglers, 

commercial fishers, 

scientists

Fish Recruitment and Productivity - Second Breakout (continued)
39

Aquatic Invasive Species – First Breakout

Information and Research Gaps / Needs

AIS experts

Species shift information is limited

Experimentation methods are missing

Literature is speculative

Aquatic Nuisance Species Management Plans

Forecasting potential impact

There is no identification of high risk areas or highly vulnerable areas in the Great Lakes and analysis of 

different scenarios of what could possibly happen

Looking at specific areas that are identified for future planning

Long-term monitoring and data information

Are there other diseases or pathogens in other parts of the world that could come due to climate change?

Identified likely invaders

Develop a list of species not considering future warming of the water temperature and nearshore areas

Future scenario of lower lake levels and potential problems

Predictive models, make the prevention case

Economic and ecologic effect, (i.e. looking at marshes, invertebrates, fish recruitment)

Are there ways to intercept the pathways?

Biological control research?

Support mitigation, look at southern states control, methods / technologies

Will climate change cause mass northward shifts in whole communities or large segments of

communities? If so, should ‘new’species introduced via range expansion be considered native or nonnative? Should we be facilitating northward migrations of species adapting to human-induced climate

change or trying to preserve historic communities that are no longer well adapted to the local climate? 

If there are native species which are lost from the Great Lakes due to such range shifts -- particularly

if those species are of social or economic value – should we be facilitating the introduction of other

species to fill the vacant niches?

Survival rates of new aquatic invasive species

Algae and the relationship with the quagga mussels

Demand for biofuels...and the invasive species are usually targeted, what is the likelihood of biofuel

plants becoming invasive

Wind turbines, what is the impact of invasive species on this?

Genetic changes/ adaptations

Disease rates and parasites

Increased human dimension, more pressure on shorelines, land use and impact on the nearshore area

Priority Areas

Immediate Needs (2-4 Years)

Data to look at trends- monitoring

Scenarios

Key geographic areas to target resources

Predictive models for vulnerable species, loss of natives, predator-prey relationships, energy flow changes

Algae/quagga mussel relationship

Examining phosphorus trapping/ biofuels harvesting
40

Other immediate needs:

Identify likely invaders

Look at disease pathogens and parasites

Biocontrols (prevention- make sure they won’t be invasive)

Make sure energy solutions are not creating other problems 

Climate-> erosion -> dredging -> contaminants -> Dreissenids (resuspension)

Long-term Needs (5-7 Years)

Change in lake level and what that is going to do to coastal wetlands

Look to southern states for control methods/technology

Offshore development technology impact on invasive species

Wind power

Vector shifts

Flooding as a vector

Training Needs

Fisheries best practices for managers

More scientists in invasive species and climate

Monitoring, training for NR field staff (and the public), how to identify and how to identify unusual

species. Heightened awareness. What to do when you see an invasive species?

Especially high propugule overwintering

Satellite /aerial tools, Remotely-Operated Vehicles (ROVs) for monitoring and people trained how to use

those for guiding control

Stakeholder Engagement

State and federal agencies

Recreational users

Watershed councils

The Nature Conservancy

Local/regional planners

Municipalities

Commercial interests

Research institutions

Policy Makers

General public

Marinas/coastal communities/land owners

Vector related industries

Barriers

Uncertainty

Active opposition

Vested interest in status quo

Defining invasive species

Competing priorities

Funding

Making the economic case
41

Terminology 

Changing the social paradigm

Scientific Products, Services and Expertise

Staff scientists

Work with Sea Grant research

Federal agencies

Other states

Communication of New Information, Tools, and Technologies

Publications (peer reviewed and informal)

More coordination of the websites

Keeping in connection with projects as they are going on, stakeholder engagement

Enviromich

GL Aquatic Nuisance panel

State Partners

Information overload is possible - need to keep the public information simple and consistent in light of 

the huge uncertainties associated with both invasive species and climate changes and particularly at

the interface of the two

Michigan State Invasive Species Initiatives

IJC research inventory (don’t use)

NOAA or Sea Grant site

Google Earth and other new tool that could be applied to monitoring/tracking/mapping/communications

about the distributions of invasive species

Office of the Great Lakes

Booklets

List serves and clipping services

Conclusion
42

Aquatic Invasive Species - Second Breakout 

Products/services

Scale (temporal, 

spatial, 

geographical)

Collaborations, 

integration, and 

coordination

Value to society

What is

our target 

food web?

Forecast, supported by a 

model.

* need science on likely 

invaders (extinctions to

support).

Basin wide and

each lake.

Research, social science, 

policy makers, GL 

Fishery Commission.

Needs input from and 

engagement of a diverse 

array of stakeholders to 

make it successful.

It is in interest 

in those groups.

It is a value 

laden decision.

Identifying 

likely 

invaders 

and their 

impacts

Modeling, forecasting, high 

risk vs. low risk rating lists, 

preventative education tools, 

legislator briefing – avoid

species that are banned, 

informing legislation, 

identifying the most likely 

vectors.

Time is relative to 

the temperature 

change, basin and 

lake levels (and

sub-ecosystems),

goes back to key 

geographic areas.

University and

researchers who have

the data of where the

invaders would come

from, (donor areas)

Communicate with

most likely vectors 

to communicate risks 

(industries associated

with vectors).

Being a step 

ahead of the 

potential 

socioeconomic 

damages that 

would occur.

Algae/

quagga

mussel

Improved understanding, 

increase knowledge base,

forecast, modeling based 

on temperatures and 

productivity, tool /process 

developed to interrupt, 

public education/outreach, 

economic impact, looking 

at the uses for the waste

product.

Nearshore coastline 

areas, identify 

potential areas, 

targeted regional 

area, as soon as 

possible, forecast 

from next summer 

to several years.

Research community, 

DNR parks and 

recreation, local county 

parks, local government 

recreation departments, 

Sea Grant.

Huge issue right 

now, aesthetic

and economic.

Monitoring

Training on satellite aerial 

tools, making the imaging 

available, radars, phragmites 

location, training to get 

more people involved, 

standardized data collection

process, determine if 

overwintering, identify the

responsible party (owner

of doing this), public

education and information 

management and connecting 

to response teams, mapping 

and database, GIS for 

overlay (water quality, use,

endangered spp, vectors, 

temperature regime) to target

high risk.

Understanding the barriers, 

facilitate integration, data 

management, data rescue 

and preservation.

Basin wide, and as

fine as possible, 

BARRIERS: getting 

the information 

to the people who

need it. 

Michigan Recreational 

Boater Information 

System, states.
43

Appendix IV - Table listing key issues, needs, activities, and suggestions identified within each of the 

overarching subject categories during breakouts of the six Key Scientific Theme Areas

Forecasts, Models, Prediction, Outlooks, Scenarios, Predictive / Decision-Making Tools,

Uncertainty, Risk and Risk Assessment

Physical

Environment

	 Lake level unified forecast model that incorporates climate change impacts for entire Great 

Lakes watershed (100 m resolution - coastline).

	 Unified Great Lakes three-dimensional ice-hydrodynamic model ( lake-wide; up to one week;

point source; light source).

	 Three-dimensional Great Lakes ecosystem model (physical, ice, biological; lake-by-lake

downscaled to local).

	 Long-term need for Great Lakes Regional Earth-System Model (hydrology, ice, ecosystem,

hydrodynamic, atmospheric modeling); 1-2 km for lakes, 5 km for atmosphere.

	 Convert two-dimensional Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System (GLCFS) to threedimensional model.

	 Improved ice modeling and forecasting.

	 Improve forecast model capabilities to address anticipated climate change-related increase in 

intensity of storms .

	 Regional nearshore current forecasts.

Research to increase understanding and/or to expand knowledge base

Physical

Environment

	 Increase understanding of the role of ice on ecosystem structure and function related to 

fisheries, energy balance and water balance.

	 Expand understanding of coastal processes.

Data, Data Sets, Databases, Monitoring and Observing Systems

Physical

Environment

	 Overall need for better data to better understand overall trends (too many gaps) and unified

lake-region-wide database.

	 Raw data is not compatible.

	 Managers need help in getting the data they need and direction on where to go for such

information; create clearinghouse (2-4 years).

	 Get data from Canadians as means of promoting stakeholder engagement.

	 Get feedback on data.

Mapping, GIS, bathymetry and related activities

Physical

Environment 	 Digital bathymetric maps lake- and region wide.

Outreach, Communications, Collaboration, Scientist-Stakeholder Engagement

Physical

Environment

	 Need to get lake level variation forecasts to public.

	 Present research results in form that can be readily used by managers and decision makers

(regional – local).

	 Plan and conduct research that supports better management.

	 Encourage closer relationship between GLERL and universities.

	 Foster greater collaboration with Canada.

	 Science needs feedback from stakeholders to improve products.

	 Use email, web, newsletters, media outlets to get word out on research activities/findings and

science products, services, and expertise.

Economic / Societal Value, Cost-Benefit, Funding

Physical

Environment 	 Make case for funding (of research and modeling) and downscaling.
44

Forecasts, Models, Prediction, Outlooks, Scenarios, Predictive / DecisionMaking Tools, Uncertainty, Risk and Risk Assessment

Water Quantity

	 Improve Great Lakes water level forecast models to produce 2-3 year outlooks

(lake-wide; outreach to make Great Lakes a national focus; individual lakes).

	 Product to help users/planners adapt to extreme events and plan mitigation (local;

2-3 year reaction time).

	 Fully support International Ocean Observing System (IOOS) on the Great Lakes

(basin-wide; lake-wide).

	 More plausible time series models (precipitation, temperature).

	 Better understanding and prediction of extreme events (2-3 years into future) and

quantifying impact of land use alternatives.

Research to increase understanding and/or to expand knowledge base

Water Quantity

	 Assess and document the sensitivity of lakes to temperature increases including 

thermal structures.

	 Develop a better understanding of impacts of channelization and changes in inflows

and outflows on water quantity.

	 Determine trends and in future water levels in 5-10-year increments (2-4 years).

	 Meet needs for research on water quantity removal from basin (2007 Groundwater

Conservation Advisory Committee).

Data, Data Sets, Databases, Monitoring and Observing Systems

Water Quantity

	 Fully support implementation of the Great Lakes Observing System (GLOS) basinwide and lake-wide.

	 Establish better observing/reporting networks and model outputs (2-4 years).

	 Meet need for an instrumentation network to measure evaporation /

evapotranspiration.

	 Promote more consistent, effective and continuous monitoring.

	 Find synergy between local community training needs and data needs.

Mapping, GIS, bathymetry and related activities

Water Quantity

	 Develop high resolution topography / digital elevation maps in support of 

modeling.

	 Create present and projected climate maps (global-state-zip code scales).

Outreach, Communications, Collaboration, Scientist-Stakeholder Engagement

Water Quantity

	 Ensure more/better use of communication networks and better organization of

material on web.

	 Take advantage of new communication technologies.

	 Develop greater awareness of user needs and get their input.

Economic / Societal Value, Cost-Benefit, Funding

Water Quantity

	 Lack of information and research gaps on water quantity effects on economic

vitality.

	 Research identifying economic value of climate change research needs (justify value

of research needs) (2-4 years).

	 Additional research teams/funding and comprehensive plan (2-4 years).
45

Forecasts, Models, Prediction, Outlooks, Scenarios, Predictive / DecisionMaking Tools, Uncertainty, Risk and Risk Assessment

Watershed Hydrology

	 Improve flood forecasting systems dependent on scale of community

	 Institutionalize Great Lakes water quality models via interagency collaboration

(scale of 10”s of square kilometers)

	 Develop integrated climate watershed model for all of the Great Lakes

	 Develop better models/practices for non-point loadings in response to increased 

precipitation in the management of pollution sources and water quantity

Research to increase understanding and/or to expand knowledge base

Watershed Hydrology 	 Assess projected changes in future watershed parameters and impacts of crops/

agriculture, erosion, natural vegetation

Data, Data Sets, Databases, Monitoring and Observing Systems

Watershed Hydrology 	 Inadequate data pertaining to water quality, measured precipitation and stream flow

(gauges)

Mapping, GIS, bathymetry and related activities

Watershed Hydrology 	 Support improvement of floodplain maps and flood forecasting systems dependent 

on scale of the community

Outreach, Communications, Collaboration, Scientist-Stakeholder Engagement

Watershed Hydrology

There was a recognized need to better translate the developing knowledge on climate

change and its likely impacts into changes in the everyday practice of consultants 

and public servants. An important tool for this purpose would be guidelines issued

by professional associations, like the American Society of Civil Engineers and the 

American Water Works Association, in collaboration with NOAA about how to include

the uncertain knowledge we have on climate change into infrastructure planning and

operation. This would help consultants and public servants to overcome the lack of

common practices on the subject. Such guidelines should be periodically updated.

An additional instrument that could help in including Climate Change knowledge

into present-day infrastructure planning are the continuous education courses that 

professionals must take for maintaining their licenses. NOAA should work alone or

with professional associations to develop courses regarding the possible climate change

impact on hydrology and water quality and how to plan for minimizing their impact on

the society.

Economic / Societal Value, Cost-Benefit, Funding

Watershed Hydrology 	 Social sciences are missing

	 Need studies on cost/benefit ratios under climate change scenarios
46

Forecasts, Models, Prediction, Outlooks, Scenarios, Predictive / DecisionMaking Tools, Uncertainty, Risk and Risk Assessment

Water Quality and

Human Health

	 Predictive model assessing effects of increased storm/rainfall events on CSO plans

and long term control plans

	 Predictive model for assessing impacts of climate change on overall water quality

(physical, chemical, biological)

	 Develop risk assessment for potential impacts of climate change on human health 

(2-4 years)

Research to increase understanding and/or to expand knowledge base

Water Quality and

Human Health

	 Quantify nutrient loading to watersheds, quantity of water and groundwater nutrient

concentrations 

	 Determine frequency, duration and intensity of bacteria affecting beach closures

	 Expand understanding of how fish populations are affected by contaminants and

implications for subsistence fishing and lower socioeconomic communities

	 Quantify climate-related changes in potential health effects (water and airborne) 

and exposure routes and vectors affecting human health

	 Identify conditions leading to algal blooms

Data, Data Sets, Databases, Monitoring and Observing Systems

Water Quality and

Human Health

	 Inadequate data pertaining to water quality, measured precipitation and stream

flow (gauges)

Mapping, GIS, bathymetry and related activities

Water Quality and

Human Health No references

Outreach, Communications, Collaboration, Scientist-Stakeholder Engagement

Water Quality and

Human Health

	 Communicate tangible impacts of climate change to the public

	 Identify infrastructure issues for future planning (utility, municipal planning); userbased and local government needs

	 Bridge gap between local health departments and scientific researchers

	 Encourage greater interaction between NOAA staff and state and regional agencies

	 Develop greater reliance on web, email, list serves, bulletins

Economic / Societal Value, Cost-Benefit, Funding

Water Quality and

Human Health

	 Need to assess financial and economic implications of bacterial infections at 

community level and effects on human health; assess cost-benefits

	 Evaluate socioeconomic and health implications of lack of access to water (2-4

years)
47

Forecasts, Models, Prediction, Outlooks, Scenarios, Predictive / Decision-Making Tools,

Uncertainty, Risk and Risk Assessment

Fish 

Recruitment 

and 

Productivity

	 Global regional Great Lakes climate change model (basin-wide and by lake) including

statistical sub-models (El Nino, La Nina impacts).

	 Improved three-dimensional hydrodynamic model ( increased number of strata; adaptive

nearshore vs. offshore gridding; improved vertical movement/turbulence; bottom boundary

and temperature.

	 Bio-physical food web model (fish recruitment) coupled with 3-D hydrodynamic model.

	 Forecast fish recruitment and productivity as a function of climate change scenarios.

Research to increase understanding and/or to expand knowledge base

Fish 

Recruitment 

and 

Productivity

	 Determine how inter-annual variability, temperature and thermal structure interact with an

unstable food web right now (2-4 years).

	 Examine spring season, impacts of ice cover (especially on Lake Erie) (2-4 years).

	 Assess impact of climate change on physical factors and subsequent effect on fish spatial

distribution for various life stages (2-4 years).

	 Identify fish species most vulnerable to climate change impacts (2-4 years).

	 Study the role of nearshore/offshore benthic productivity pathways (2-4 years).

	 Document anticipated change in land use and corresponding change in wetland distribution

and extent and subsequent effect on fish recruitment and productivity.

	 Obtain a better understanding of influence of lower food web on fish recruitment and

productivity.

Data, Data Sets, Databases, Monitoring and Observing Systems

Fish 

Recruitment 

and 

Productivity

	 Promote greater satellite monitoring of water color for chlorophyll-a (Coastwatch, AVHRR,

lake-wide; 0.5 – 1 km resolution) with nearshore focus; groundtruthed calibration along

transects and fixed stations.

	 Expand and improve technology of observation platforms ( nets, sensors, acoustics, optics,

remote- and autonomous underwater vehicle, buoys); cm – km ; milliseconds – years; realtime – near real-time.

	 Perpetuation of long term data sets and monitoring, design minimalist program with

commitment, proactive approach and based on long term scientific vision beyond tenure of 

leadership.

Mapping, GIS, bathymetry and related activities

Fish 

Recruitment 

and 

Productivity

	 Conduct comprehensive high resolution mapping, e.g. bathymetry, bottom type and associated 

species.

	 Carry out high resolution mapping (physical and biological) of critical habitat, e.g. spawning

success, thermal structure.

Outreach, Communications, Collaboration, Scientist-Stakeholder Engagement

Fish 

Recruitment 

and 

Productivity

	 Offer continuing-education for media to improve communication.

	 Develop a climate extension service that would interact with state climatologists.

	 Look at what’s being done in Europe

	 Expand reliance on existing organization.s (NGO’s, Sea Grant) to improve communications

	 Host scientific symposium on impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes fishery.

	 Improve/increase use of web technologies; peer-reviewed journal articles; endowed university

chair.
48

Economic / Societal Value, Cost-Benefit, Funding

Fish 

Recruitment 

and 

Productivity

	 Assess consumptive fish use changes and the impact on economically-important species

	 Evaluate economic impacts on commercial fishery industry and sport fishery and need to 

modify regulations

	 Create more opportunities for different disciplines to interact (economists, social scientists,

climatologists).

Forecasts, Models, Prediction, Outlooks, Scenarios, Predictive / Decision-Making Tools,

Uncertainty, Risk and Risk Assessment

Aquatic

Invasive 

Species

	 Basin-wide and lake-by-lake forecast models that identify high risk areas most vulnerable to

AIS invasions, most likely invaders and/or native species most threatened with AIS-induced

extinction.

	 Use forecast models and analysis to create likely scenarios of future species composition. What

native species would be lost that are of societal and economic value? What is target food web?

	 Uncertainty about effects of climate change on AIS threats and outcomes is a barrier in

promoting greater stakeholder engagement.

Research to increase understanding and/or to expand knowledge base

Aquatic

Invasive 

Species

	 Need improved understanding of algae/quagga mussel interactions to support models based on

temperatures and productivity (2-4 years).

	 Identify vulnerable species and potential loss of native, predator-prey relationships and energy 

flow changes.

Data, Data Sets, Databases, Monitoring and Observing Systems

Aquatic

Invasive 

Species

	 Overall need for better data to better understand overall trends (too many gaps) and unified

lake-region-wide database.

	 Raw data is not compatible.

	 Managers need help in getting the data they need and direction on where to go for such

information; create clearinghouse (2-4 years).

	 Get data from Canadians as means of promoting stakeholder engagement.

	 Get feedback on data.

Mapping, GIS, bathymetry and related activities

Aquatic

Invasive 

Species

	 Identify key high-risk geographic area to target resources (2-4 years) with mapping, database

and GIS for overlay (water quality, use, threatened and endangered species, vector, and

temperature regimes).

Outreach, Communications, Collaboration, Scientist-Stakeholder Engagement

Aquatic

Invasive 

Species

	 Increase production/dissemination of peer-reviewed and informal publications.

	 Develop greater coordination among web sites.

	 Increase use of list serves (e.g. Enviromich) and clipping services.

	 Expand outreach in explaining the Algae/quagga mussel interaction and it impacts.

Economic / Societal Value, Cost-Benefit, Funding

Aquatic

Invasive 

Species

	 Need for more information on AIS economic and ecological impacts relative to climate change 

outlook.

	 Lack of funding and failure to make the economic case are barriers to greater stakeholder 

engagement.