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OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINIS

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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

San Francisco

San Francisco

A Tsunami Forecast Model for San Francisco, California

NOAA OAR Special Report

Burak Uslu

Diego Arcas

Vasily V. Titov

Angie J. Venturato

NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR)

Pacic Marine Environmental Laboratory

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 3
Front cover image: Overview of NOAA tsunami forecast system. Top frame

illustrates components of the tsunami forecast using the 15 November 2006

Kuril Islands tsunami as an example: DART systems (black triangles), precomputed tsunami source function database (unfilled black rectangles) and

high-resolution forecast models in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans (red

squares). Colors show computed maximum tsunami amplitudes of the offshore forecast. Black contour lines indicate tsunami travel times in hours.

Lower panels show the forecast process sequence left to right: tsunami detection with the DART system (third generation DART ETD is shown); model

propagation forecast based on DART observations; coastal forecast with highresolution tsunami inundation model.

PDF versions of the PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series reports are available at

http://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/forecast_reports
NOAA OAR Special Report

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 3

A Tsunami Forecast Model for San Francisco, California

Burak Uslu1,2, Diego Arcas1,2, Vasily V. Titov2, and Angie J. Venturato1,2

1Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, Seattle,

WA

2NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), Seattle, WA

March 2010
NOTICE from NOAA

Mention of a commercial company or product does not constitute an endorsement by

NOAA/OAR. Use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products or the

tests of such products for publicity or advertising purposes is not authorized. Any opinions,

findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Contribution No. 3342 from NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Contribution No. 1765 from Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO)

Also available from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

(http://www.ntis.gov)

ii
Contents iii

Contents

List of Figures v

List of Tables vii

Foreword ix

Abstract 1

1 Background and Objectives 1

2 Forecast Methodology 3

3 Model Development 5

3.1 Forecast area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

3.2 Historical events and data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

3.3 Model setup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

4 Results and Discussion 9

4.1 Model validation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

4.2 Model stability and reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

4.3 Results of tested events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

4.4 Sensitivity study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

5 Summary and Conclusions 13

6 Acknowledgments 13

7 References 15

FIGURES 17

Appendix A 45

A1. Reference model *.in file for San Francisco, California . . . . . . . 45

A2. Forecast model *.in file for San Francisco, California . . . . . . . . 45

Appendix B Propagation Database: Pacific Ocean Unit Sources 47

Glossary 85

Contents v

List of Figures

1 Topographic map of the San Francisco Bay area with San Francisco

and other major population centers shown. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

2 An aerial view of the Port of San Francisco, with the city skyline in

the distance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

3 Extents of the reference inundation (red) and optimized forecast

(gray) model grids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

4 Map of the Pacific Ocean Basin showing the location of the 11 historical events used to test and validate the San Francisco model . . . 21

5 Map of the Pacific Ocean Basin showing the synthetic Mw 9.3 scenarios used to test the San Francisco model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

6 Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed

tsunami generated during the 1946 Unimak earthquake. The observed tidal record (green) is shown with the reference inundation

(red) and optimized forecast (black) model results superimposed. . . 23

7 The maximum wave height and tide gauge simulation of the 1946

tsunami at the San Francisco reference model grid. . . . . . . . . . . . 24

8 The maximum wave height and tide gauge simulation of the 1946

Unimak tsunami at the San Francisco forecast model grid. . . . . . . 25

9 The maximum wave height and tide gauge simulation of a synthetic

tsunami from Japan at the San Francisco forecast model grid. . . . . . 26

10 Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed

tsunami generated during the 1994 Kuril Unimak earthquake. . . . . 27

11 Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed

tsunami generated during the 1996 Andreanov earthquake. . . . . . . 27

12 Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed

tsunami generated during the 2001 Peru earthquake. . . . . . . . . . . 28

13 Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed

tsunami generated during the 2003 Rat Island earthquake. . . . . . . . 28

14 Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed

tsunami generated during the 2006 Tonga earthquake. . . . . . . . . . 29

15 Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed

tsunami generated during the 2006 Kuril earthquake. . . . . . . . . . . 29

16 Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed

tsunami generated during the 2007 Kuril earthquake. . . . . . . . . . . 30

17 Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed

tsunami generated during the 2007 Solomon earthquake. . . . . . . . 30

18 Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed

tsunami generated during the 2007 Peru earthquake. . . . . . . . . . . 31

19 Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed

tsunami generated during the 2007 Chile earthquake. . . . . . . . . . 31

20 Maximum wave heights computed with reference model grids from

(a) 1946 Unimak tsunami, (b) 1994 Kuril Islands tsunami, (c) 1996

Andreanov tsunami and (d) 2001 Peru tsunami. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

21 Maximum wave heights computed with reference model grids from

(a) 2003 Rat Islands tsunami, (b) 2006 Tonga tsunami, (c) 2006 Kuril

Islands tsunami and (d) 2007 Kuril Islands tsunami. . . . . . . . . . . . 33
vi Contents

22 Maximum wave heights computed with reference model grids from

(a) 2007 Solomon tsunami, (b) 2007 Peru tsunami and (c) 2007 Chile

tsunami. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

23 Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from

(a) 1946 Unimak tsunami, (b) 1994 Kuril Islands tsunami, (c) 1996

Andreanov tsunami and (d) 2001 Peru tsunami. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

24 Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from

(a) 2003 Rat Islands tsunami, (b) 2006 Tonga tsunami, (c) 2006 Kuril

Islands tsunami and (d) 2007 Kuril Islands tsunami. . . . . . . . . . . . 36

25 Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from

(a) 2007 Solomon tsunami, (b) 2007 Peru tsunami and (c) 2007 Chile

tsunami. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

26 The predicted tsunami wave height response at Presidio tide gauge

from Mw 9.3 events modeled from a 1000 km × 100 km source area

with 30-m rupture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

27 Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from

synthetic scenarios 1–4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

28 Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from

synthetic scenarios 5–8. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

29 Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from

synthetic scenarios 9–12. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

30 Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from

synthetic scenarios 13–16. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

31 Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from

synthetic scenarios 17–18. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

B1 Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia Subduction Zone unit sources. . . . . . . . 49

B2 Central and South America Subduction Zone unit sources. . . . . . . 55

B3 Eastern Philippines Subduction Zone unit sources. . . . . . . . . . . . 63

B4 Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap Subduction Zone unit

sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

B5 Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary Subduction Zone unit

sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

B6 New Guinea Subduction Zone unit sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

B7 New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga Subduction Zone unit sources. . . . . . 75

B8 New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu Zone unit sources. . . . . . . . . . . . 79

B9 Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai Zone unit sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Contents vii

List of Tables

1 MOST setup parameters for reference and forecast models for San

Francisco Bay. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

2 Historical events used for model validation for San Francisco, California. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

3 Synthetic tsunami sources recorded at the Presidio tide station for

San Francisco Bay (from Tang et al., 2009). . ............... 8

B1 Earthquake parameters for Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia Subduction

Zone unit sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

B2 Earthquake parameters for Central and South America Subduction

Zone unit sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

B3 Earthquake parameters for Eastern Philippines Subduction Zone unit

sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

B4 Earthquake parameters for Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap

Subduction Zone unit sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

B5 Earthquake parameters for Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary

Subduction Zone unit sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

B6 Earthquake parameters for New Guinea Subduction Zone unit

sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

B7 Earthquake parameters for New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga Subduction Zone unit sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

B8 Earthquake parameters for New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu Subduction Zone unit sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

B9 Earthquake parameters for Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai Subduction Zone

unit sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California ix

Foreword

Tsunamis have been recognized as a potential hazard to United States

coastal communities since the mid-twentieth century, when multiple

destructive tsunamis caused damage to the states of Hawaii, Alaska,

California, Oregon, and Washington. In response to these events, the United

States, under the auspices of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA), established the Pacific and Alaska Tsunami Warning

Centers, dedicated to protecting United States interests from the threat posed

by tsunamis. NOAA also created a tsunami research program at the Pacific

Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) to develop improved warning

products.

The scale of destruction and unprecedented loss of life following the December

2004 Sumatra tsunami served as the catalyst to refocus efforts in the United

States on reducing tsunami vulnerability of coastal communities, and on 20

December 2006, the United States Congress passed the “Tsunami Warning and

Education Act” under which education and warning activities were thereafter

specified and mandated. A “tsunami forecasting capability based on models

and measurements, including tsunami inundation models and maps... ” is a

central component for the protection of United States coastlines from the

threat posed by tsunamis. The forecasting capability for each community

described in the PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series is the result of collaboration

between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration office of

Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, National Weather Service, National Ocean

Service, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, the

University of Washington’s Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and

Ocean, National Science Foundation, and United States Geological Survey.

NOAA Center for Tsunami Research

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series: Vol. 3

A Tsunami Forecast Model for San Francisco, California

B. Uslu1,2, D. Arcas1,2, V.V. Titov2, and A.J. Venturato1,2

Abstract. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has developed a tsunami forecast

model for San Francisco, California, as part of an effort to provide tsunami forecasts for United States

coastal communities. Development, validation, and stability testing of the tsunami forecast model for

this economically important and densely populated city has been conducted to ensure model robustness and stability. The San Francisco tsunami forecast model employs the optimized version of the

Method of Splitting Tsunami numerical code and has been validated with historical events as well as

with synthetically generated Mw = 9.3 mega tsunami events. A total of 11 historical tsunamis and 18 synthetic mega tsunami events were used for validation and stability testing. Validation results show good

agreement between observed and modeled data, thus providing a quantitative estimate of the tsunami

time series, inundation, and runup at San Francisco for tested events. A sensitivity study conducted in

conjunction with model development identifies the eastern Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia Subduction Zone

as being the most likely source for the maximum expected tsunami amplitude at the San Francisco Presidio tide gauge.

1. Background and Objectives

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) at the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) has developed a tsunami forecasting capability for operational use

by NOAA’s two Tsunami Warning Centers located in Hawaii and Alaska (Titov

et al., 2005). The system is designed to efficiently provide basin-wide warning of approaching tsunami waves accurately and quickly. The system, termed

Short-term Inundation Forecast of Tsunamis (SIFT), combines real-time tsunami event data with numerical models to produce estimates of tsunami wave

arrival times and amplitudes at a coastal community of interest. The SIFT system integrates several key components: deep-ocean observations of tsunamis

in real time, a basin-wide pre-computed propagation database of water level

and flow velocities based on potential seismic unit sources, an inversion algorithm to refine the tsunami source based on deep-ocean observations during

an event, and high-resolution tsunami forecast models termed Standby Inundation Models (SIMs).

San Francisco, California, is located along the west coast of North America

at approximately 37.8◦N latitude and 122.5◦W longitude, as shown in Figure 1.

The San Francisco metropolitan area has a population of 7,039,362, ranking it

fifth largest metropolis in the country (Census, 2000). Together with San Pablo

Bay, the Bay area encompasses approximately 4,100 square km of water (Borrero et al., 2006), lending itself to shipping operations. The San Francisco Bay

is home to one of the United States’ most economically important and major west coast ports. According to the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association

1Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, Seattle, WA

2NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), Seattle, WA
2 Uslu et al.

(PMSA, 2003), the Port of San Francisco, along with the ports of Los Angeles

harbor and Long Beach, California, together offload 95% of Asian imports. The

high volumes of goods that pass through these ports ensure stable employment

that contributes to the California economy. California port activity supports

more than 500,000 jobs, generating up to $30.5 billion in income (Uslu, 2008).

An aerial view of the Port of San Francisco, with the city skyline in the distance,

is shown in Figure 2. The San Francisco Bay area is internationally important

in terms of commerce and tourism and is one of the most densely populated

communities in the United States, second only to New York City. In addition,

the region is important to the economic health of the entire State of California. The objective of the present work, then, is to develop an operational forecast model for San Francisco, California, for the purpose of minimizing false

alarms that disrupt port activities and to provide the region with accurate and

timely information necessary to make decisions in the event of tsunami generation. This report details the development of a tsunami forecast model for San

Francisco, California. Development includes construction of a digital elevation

model based on available bathymetric and topographic data, model validation

with historic events, and sensitivity testing of the models with a suite of mega

tsunami events the origin of which were from representative subduction zones

rimming the Pacific Ocean.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 3

2. Forecast Methodology

A high-resolution inundation model is used as the basis for the operational

forecast model to provide an estimate of wave arrival time, wave height, and

inundation immediately following tsunami generation. Tsunami forecast models are run in real time while a tsunami is propagating across the open ocean.

These models are designed and tested to perform under very stringent time

constraints given that time is generally the single limiting factor in saving lives

and property. The goal is to maximize the amount of time that an at-risk

community has to react to a tsunami threat by providing accurate information

quickly.

The tsunami forecast model, based on the Method of Splitting Tsunami

(MOST), emerges as the solution in the SIFT system by modeling real-time tsunamis in minutes while employing high-resolution grids constructed by the National Geophysical Data Center or, in limited instances, internally. Each forecast model consists of three telescoped grids with increasing spatial and temporal resolution for simulation of wave inundation onto dry land. The forecast

model utilizes the most recent bathymetry and topography available to reproduce the correct wave dynamics during the inundation computation. Forecast

models are constructed for at-risk populous coastal communities in the Pacific

and Atlantic Oceans. Previous and present development of forecast models in

the Pacific (Titov et al., 2005; Titov, 2009; Tang et al., 2009; Wei et al., 2008) have

validated the accuracy and efficiency of the forecast models currently implemented in the SIFT system for real-time tsunami forecast. The models are also

a valuable tool in hindcast research. Tang et al. (2009) provide forecast methodology details.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 5

3. Model Development

Modeling of coastal communities is accomplished by development of a set of

three nested grids that telescope down from a large spatial extent to a grid that

finely defines the localized community. The basis for these grids is a highresolution digital elevation model constructed by NCTR or, more commonly, by

the National Geophysical Data Center using best available bathymetric, topographic, and coastal shoreline data for an at-risk community. For each community, data are compiled from a variety of sources to produce a digital elevation

model referenced to Mean High Water in the vertical and to the World Geodetic System 1984 in the horizontal (http://ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/inundation/

tsunami/inundation.html). From these digital elevation models, a set of

three high-resolution, “reference” models are constructed which are then “optimized” to run in an operationally specified period of time.

3.1 Forecast area

San Francisco is located on the northern California coast on the northwest

shore of the San Francisco Bay. In addition to San Francisco, numerous populous California communities, including Oakland, Alameda, Hayward, and Redwood City, call the shores of the bay home. The region is seismically active

with numerous faults bisecting the landscape. To the west, the northern segment of the San Andreas strike-slip fault system runs parallel to San Francisco

Bay. To the east, the bay is flanked by the Hayward Fault that continues northnorthwest bisecting the city of Oakland. These two fault systems effectively

bracket the entire Bay area between them. At the northernmost extent of the

Hayward Fault lies the San Pablo Bay, a depression formed from the step-over

between Rodgers Creek and the Hayward Fault. San Francisco Bay itself is separated from the open Pacific Ocean by a narrow channel at Golden Gate. Below

the Golden Gate Bridge, the channel depth reaches up to 113 m. The average

depth through San Francisco Bay, however, is on the order of 4.2 m. The overall

shallow bathymetry that dominates the area is a factor in the wave dynamics

and has been discussed in Magoon (1966) and Ritter and Dupre (1972). Borrero

et al. (2006) and Uslu (2008) have studied the dynamics of the bay in relation

to average depth.

3.2 Historical events and data

The San Francisco tide gauge station is the oldest continuously operating tide

gauge station in the United States and has provided the longest record of tides

at one location in the western hemisphere. Originally installed at Fort Point

in 1854, the gauge was relocated to Sausalito in 1877 when the Fort Point pier

came into disrepair. Great care was taken to level the gauge and match bench
6 Uslu et al.

marking so that the integrity of the record would be maintained. The gauge

was again moved to a temporary location when the Sausalito pier, too, came

into disrepair. In 1897, 20 years after the Sausalito move, the San Francisco tide

gauge was relocated to the Presidio on the southeast side of Golden Gate. The

tide gauge has resided at this Presidio location ever since (Borrero et al., 2006;

Bromirski et al., 2002).

The San Francisco tide gauge has recorded numerous tsunamis throughout its history of operation. Soon after initial installation in 1854, the gauge

recorded a series of tsunami waves generated by an earthquake that occurred

off of Japan. The 1964 Alaska tsunami had the greatest impact on the United

States west coast; responsible for 11 fatalities and damage exceeding $17 million in the State of California alone (Lander et al., 1993). In the San Francisco

Bay region and the communities of Sausalito, San Rafael, and Berkeley, the 1964

tsunami caused approximately $1 million in damage.

3.3 Model setup

High-resolution 1-sec digital elevation models constructed by the NOAA Center

for Tsunami Research were used to develop a high-resolution reference inundation model for San Francisco. The reference model consists of three nested

grids; Grid A covering Monterey to Sonoma County with 30-sec resolution. Grid

B covering the greater San Francisco Bay Area with 6-sec resolution, and Grid

C covering the city of San Francisco with 1-sec resolution. From this highresolution reference model, an optimized tsunami forecast model was developed as discussed by Tang et al. (2009). The forecast model A and B grid extents retain the same resolution as those of the reference model, but to increase

model run time while retaining accuracy requirements, the C Grid extents were

lowered to 4 arc sec in the forecast model. Table 1 provides specific details

Table 1: MOST setup parameters for reference and forecast models for San Francisco Bay.

Reference Model Forecast Model

Coverage Cell nx Time Coverage Cell nx Time

Lat. [◦N] Size × Step Lat. [◦N] Size × Step

Grid Region Lon. [◦W] [] ny [sec] Lon. [◦W] [] ny [sec]

A Monterey to 38.9992–36.0075 30 × 30 360 × 360 3.5 38.4992–36.4992 30 × 30 181 × 241 3.6

Sonoma Counties 124–121.0083 123.4917–121.9917

B San Francisco Bay 38.3331–37.3347 6 × 6 700 × 600 3.5 37.9497–37.4997 6 × 6 231 × 271 3.6

122.5833–121.4183 122.5833–122.20

C San Francisco City 37.85–37.58 1 × 1 723 × 973 0.7 37.85–37.6494 4 × 2 172 × 362 1.8

122.55–122.35 122.54–122.35

Minimum offshore depth [m] 5 5

Water depth for dry land [m] 0.1 0.1

Friction coefficient (n2) 0.0009 0.0009

CPU time for a 4-hr simulation 2.77 hr 11 min

Computations were performed on a single Intel Xeon processor at 3.6 GHz, Dell PowerEdge 1850.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 7 Table 2: Historical events used for model validation for San Francisco, California. Seismic Earthquake Moment Date Time Magnitude Tsunami Event (UTC) Lat. (◦) Lon. (◦) Subduction Zone (Mw) Magnitude1 Model Tsunami Source 1946 Unimak 1946-04-01 53.32N 163.19W Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia (ACSZ) 28.5 8.5 7.5 × b23 + 19.7 × b24 + 3.7 × b25 12:28:56 1994 East Kuril 1994-10-04 43.60N 147.63E Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap (KISZ) 38.3 8.1 9.0 × a20 13:23:28.5 1996 Andreanov 1996-06-10 51.10N 177.410W Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia (ACSZ) 37.9 7.8 2.40 × a15 + 0.80 × b16 04:04:03.4 2001 Peru 2001-06-23 17.28S 72.71W South America (SASZ) 38.4 8.2 5.70 × a15 + 2.90 × b16 + 1.98 × a16 20:34:23.3 2003 Rat Island 2003-11-17 51.14N 177.86E Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia (ACSZ) 37.7 7.8 2.81 × b11 06:43:31.0 2006 Tonga 2006-05-03 20.39S 173.47W New Zealand-Kermadec-Tonga (NTSZ) 38.0 8.0 6.6 × b29 15:27:03.7 2006 Kuril 2006-11-15 46.71N 154.33E Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap (KISZ) 38.3 8.1 4.0 × a12 + 0.5 × b12 + 2.0 × a13 + 1.5 × b13 11:15:08.0 2007 Kuril 2007-01-13 46.17N 154.80E Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap (KISZ) 38.1 7.9 –3.64 × b13 04:23:48.1 2007 Solomon 2007-04-01 7.79S 156.34E New Britain-Solomons-Vanuatu (NVSZ) 8.1 8.2 12.0 × b10 20:40:38.9 2007 Peru 2007-08-15 13.73S 77.04W South America (SASZ) 38.0 8.1 4.1 × a9 + 4.32 × b9 23:41:57.9 2007 Chile 2007-11-14 22.64S 70.62W South America (SASZ) 37.7 7.6 0.81 × a22 + 0.3 × a23 + 0.11 × b23 15:41:11.2

1Equivalent tsunami source moment magnitude from model source constrained by tsunami observations.2López and Okal (2006)3Centroid Moment Tensor
8 Uslu et al.

for both reference and forecast model grids, including extents. Reference and

forecast model extents are graphically presented in Figure 3.

The San Francisco tsunami forecast model was optimized in computation

time for use in hazard assessment and real-time tsunami forecasting during an

event. Relative computation times for both the reference and forecast model

are provided in Table 1. CPU time for a 4-hr model simulation is cut significantly when the forecast model is run. For the same 4-hr model simulation, the

reference model requires 2.77 hr of CPU time while the tsunami forecast model

runs in 11 min. Validation of this forecast model was accomplished by testing model grids against historical sources and by comparing results with those

of the companion San Francisco reference model. Quality records during the

11 historical events listed in Table 2 and shown in Figure 4 provide the basis

for validation of the San Francisco tsunami forecast model. Synthetic scenarios were developed and used for stability testing and to model likely worst-case

scenarios at the San Francisco Presidio tide gauge. Specific information about

each synthetic scenario, including subduction zone and tsunami source referenced to the NOAA propagation database unit sources provided in Appendix B,

is provided in Table 3. A plot showing the location of each synthetic scenario

modeled is provided in Figure 5 to visually show the coverage represented by

these scenarios.

Table 3: Synthetic tsunami sources recorded at the Presidio tide station for San Francisco Bay (from Tang et al., 2009).

Scenario Name Subduction Zone Tsunami Source

KISZ 22–31 Kamchatka-Yap-Mariana-Izu-Bonin A22–A31, B22–B3

KISZ 1–10 Kamchatka-Yap-Mariana-Izu-Bonin1 A1–A10, B1–B10

ACSZ 12–21 Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia A12–A21, B12–B31

ACSZ 22–31 Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia A22–A31, B22–B31

ACSZ 38–47 Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia A38–A47, B38–B47

ACSZ 56–65 Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia A56–A65, B56–B65a

CASZ 1–10 Central American A1–A10, B1–B10

ECSZ 1–10 Columbia-Ecuador A1–A10, B1–B10

SASZ 40–49 South America A40–A49, B40–B49

SCSZ 3–12 South Chile A3–A12, B3–B12

NTSZ 20–29 New Zealand-Kermadec-Tonga A20–A29, B20–B29

NTSZ 30–39 New Zealand-Kermadec-Tonga A30–A39, B30–B39

NVSZ 28–37 New Britain-Solomons-Vanuatu A28–A37, B28–B37

MOSZ 1–10 Manus OCB A1–A10, B1–B10

NGSZ 3–12 North New Guinea A3–A12, B3–B12

EPSZ 6–15 East Philippines A6–A15, B6–B15

NRSZ 12–21 Ryukus-Kyushu-Nankai A12–A21, B12–B21

KISZ 32–41 Kamchatka-Yap-Mariana-Izu-Bonin A32–A41, B32–B41
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 9

4. Results and Discussion

The 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake tsunami was measured at the Presidio tide

gauge with a maximum amplitude of approximately 1 m. Borrero et al. (2006)

predict that this maximum amplitude could potentially be as much as double if

an earthquake were to occur along a different segment of the Aleutian-AlaskaCascadia subduction zone. Model results on simulated tsunamis obtained in

this work suggest that a wave amplitude as large as 4 m is possible dependent

upon the specific source region, posing a significant hazard to San Francisco

Bay area.

4.1 Model validation

The San Francisco reference and tsunami forecast models were each validated

by modeling the 11 historical events listed in Table 2 and shown in Figure 2.

Model results were compared with observations recorded by the Presidio tide

gauge during the historical events for which data were recorded and available.

Specifically, the tsunamis generated during the 1946 Unimak, 2001 Peru, 2006

Kuril, and 2007 Kuril Islands events were each recorded and compared to both

reference and forecast model run results. A discussion of results and comparisons follows in the results of tested events section of this chapter.

4.2 Model stability and reliability

Artificial ringing and a high level of background noise obscuring a tsunami signal could be an issue with tsunami modeling in the San Francisco Bay area.

For this reason, the model was tested with 11 historical event scenarios and 18

simulated tsunami scenarios. The scenarios were chosen from various subduction zones with a likelihood of probable tsunami generation. By running the

model for an extended duration with historical tsunami events, low-level background noise and ringing in the harbor are smoothed. In addition to testing

with historical events, testing was performed with simulated mega tsunamis

again from various sources as a test of forecast model stability. No problems

or instabilities were noted after reference model scenario tests up to 12 hr and

optimized forecast model tests up to 24 hr were performed.

4.3 Results of tested events

San Francisco reference and forecast model results are compared with observations recorded during the 1946 Unimak, 2001 Peru, 2006 Kuril, and 2007 Kuril

Islands tsunamis. The 1946 Unimak tsunami signal is compared to the computed reference and forecast model signals in Figure 6. There is good agreement between the two models, giving confidence in the performance of the
10 Uslu et al.

forecast model. Differences noted between the two model results in later wave

amplitudes point to the non-linearity of the wave processes. Comparisons with

observations show a general trend toward overestimation of wave amplitude

by the models as well as a lag in model arrival time. Figures 7 and 8 show the

computed maximum wave height simulated at the Presidio tide gauge from the

respective reference and forecast models. Wave amplitudes as high as 40 cm

are predicted in these results. The results of a simulated tsunami from an Mw

9.3 event from Japan (synthetic case KISZ 22–31) are shown in Figure 9. A 2-

m maximum wave height at Ocean Beach and a wave height greater than 1 m

at the Presidio are predicted if this scenario were to occur. Comparisons of

time series results from the reference and forecast models run to simulate historical events are shown in Figures 10–19. In all plots, forecast model results

correlate well with those of the reference model in both amplitude and phase.

Model results for the 2001 Peru event define wave characteristics in the observed time series, with a high noise-to-signal ratio coupled with low observed

wave amplitudes as shown in Figure 12. Comparisons for the 2006 Kuril Islands event in Figure 15 shows the predicted tsunami arrival time leading observations. In this case, both reference and forecast models underestimate the

amplitudes observed at the Presidio tide gauge. During the 2007 Kuril Islands

event, forecast model results reproduce observations in both amplitude and

phase, as shown in Figure 16. Figures 20–21 show plots of the maximum wave

height computed with the reference model for the historical events tested and

Figures 23–25 show plots of maximum wave height computed with the forecast

model for the same historical events.

4.4 Sensitivity study

A sensitivity study for the San Francisco Bay area was conducted with the 18

scenarios listed in Table 3 to determine the variation of tsunami impact due to

generation of a tsunami during a large magnitude earthquake in source regions

around the Pacific. For all scenario runs, earthquake magnitude was kept constant, while source regions were varied across all potential tsunamagenic subduction zones. Each scenario was modeled to determine the maximum wave

heights expected at the Presidio tide gauge. This study uses the NOAA propagation database to model a tsunami triggered by an Mw 9.3 earthquake having a rupture length of 20 source units, for a total area of 1000 km × 100 km,

and a 30-m slip. Thirty-six events from the Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia Subduction Zone, 26 from the Kuril-Kamchatka Subduction Zone and Japan Trench,

27 from Central American sources, and 40 from South American sources are

considered (Gica et al., 2008).

Sensitivity study results show that the San Francisco Bay area is at greatest

risk from a tsunami generated in the eastern portion of the Aleutian-AlaskaCascadia Subduction Zone. A maximum wave of 7.6 m is predicted for a tsunami generated in Aleutian-Alaska-Cascadia segments 29–38, as shown in Figure 26. Tsunami waves from the northern portion of the Kuril and Japan subduction zones and those generated along the southern portion of Chile pose a

significant risk to the San Francisco area with waves greater than 1 m predicted.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 11

The maximum wave heights computed for each of the 18 synthetic scenarios

run as part of the sensitivity study are plotted in Figure 27–31.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 13

5. Summary and Conclusions

A set of reference inundation models and optimized forecast models have been

prepared for San Francisco Bay, California. Both reference inundation and

high-resolution forecast models for San Francisco Bay have robustly modeled

the historical scenarios. The computational speed of the forecast models is 16

times faster than that of reference models while retaining accurate wave height

estimation at the Presidio tide gauge. The forecast model has been tested extensively by performing a sensitivity study and incorporation of hypothetical

scenarios. The San Francisco forecast model has been developed for the purpose of real-time tsunami prediction, to forecast a tsunami generated in farfield subduction zones in real time. However, the results are also very beneficial in tsunami hazard assessment. As demonstrated in the sensitivity study, a

forecast model can be used to verify the effective source region and worst-case

scenarios.

The 1964 Alaska earthquake triggered the largest tsunami that the west

coast of the United States has ever recorded since installation of instrumentation to make observations. This study suggests that subduction zones along the

Eastern Aleutians and Alaska are the most effective tsunami generating source

regions for the San Francisco Bay area and that the hazard posed to this community is significant. A large magnitude earthquake occurring in these identified source regions of Alaska coupled with a favorable orientation could potentially have a greater impact on the Bay area than the tsunami generated after

the 1964 Alaska earthquake. Tsunami hazard assessment is not only necessary

for protecting the lives of people who live in low-lying coastal regions, but also

in identifying the potential impact a tsunami would have on ports and harbors. The optimized forecast model developed for San Francisco, California,

provides a 4-hr forecast of first-wave arrival, amplitudes, and inundation tide

gauge warning point within 10 min, based on testing with available historical

data and simulated events as presented in this report.

6. Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank Edison Gica and Jean Newman for their propagation

database work, the team of Lindsey Wright, Nic Arcos, Nazila Merati, and Marie

Eble for providing much appreciated comments and editorial assistance, and

the entire NCTR modeling group for discussions and suggestions. We would

like to especially acknowledge and thank Ryan Layne Whitney for technical assistance and editorial review of the many report iterations. Collaborative contributions of the National Weather Service, the National Geophysical Data Center, and the National Data Buoy Center were invaluable.
14 Uslu et al.

Funding for this publication and all work leading to development of a tsunami forecast model for San Francisco, California was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This publication was partially funded by the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean

(JISAO) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement No. NA17RJ1232, JISAO Contribution No. 1765. This is PMEL Contribution No. 3342.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 15

7. References

Borrero, J.C., L. Dengler, B. Uslu, and C.E. Synolakis (2006): Numerical modeling of tsunami effects at marine oil terminals in San Francisco Bay.

http://www.slc.ca.gov/division_pages/MFD/MOTEMS.html June 2006, Prepared for the California State Land Commission, Marine Facilities Division.

Bromirski, P.D., R.E. Flick, and D.R. Cayan (2002): Storminess variability along

the California coast: 1858–2000. J. Climate, 16, 982–993.

Census (2000): http:/www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/briefs/

phc-t3/tables/tab03.txt. Accessed June 12, 2009.

Gica, E., M.C. Spillane, V.V. Titov, C.D. Chamberlin, and J.C. Newman (2008):

Development of the forecast propagation database for NOAA’s Short-term

Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis (SIFT). NOAA Tech. Memo. OAR PMEL139, NTIS: PB2008-109391, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, 89 pp.

Lander, J.F., P. Lockridge, and M. Kozuch (1993): Tsunamis affecting the West

Coast of the United States, 1806–1992. NGDC Key to Geophysical Records

Documentation No. 29, National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), Boulder, CO, 242 pp.

López, A.M., and E.A. Okal (2006): A seismological reassessment of the source

of the 1946 Aleutian “tsunami” earthquake. Geophys. J. Int., 165(3), 835–849,

doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246x.2006.02899.x.

Magoon, O.T. (1966): Structural damage by tsunamis. In Specialty Conference

on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, Santa Barbara, CA.

PMSA (2003): Pacific Merchant Shipping Association. http://www.pmsaship.

com/tradefiles/PMSAMaritimeDays.pps, accessed June 12, 2009.

Ritter, J., and W. Dupre (1972): Maps showing areas of potential inundation

by tsunamis in the San Francisco Bay Region, California. U.S. Geological

Survey, Miscellaneous Field Studies, Map MF-480.

Tang, L., V.V. Titov, and C.D. Chamberlin (2009): Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting. J. Geophys. Res., 6, doi: 10.1029/2009JC005476, in press.

Titov, V.V. (2009): Tsunami forecasting. In The Sea, Vol. 15, Chapter 12, Harvard

University Press, Cambridge, MA, and London, England, 371–400.

Titov, V.V., F.I. González, E.N. Bernard, M.C. Eble, H.O. Mofjeld, J.C. Newman,

and A.J. Venturato (2005): Real-time tsunami forecasting: Challenges and

solutions. Nat. Hazards, 35(1), Special Issue, U.S. National Tsunami Hazard

Mitigation Program, 41–58.
16 Uslu et al.

Uslu, B. (2008): Deterministic and probabilistic tsunami studies in California

from near and farfield sources. Ph.D. thesis, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA.

Wei, Y., E. Bernard, L. Tang, R. Weiss, V. Titov, C. Moore, M. Spillane, M. Hopkins, and U. Kâno ̆glu (2008): Real-time experimental forecast of the Peruvian tsunami of August 2007 for U.S. coastlines. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35,

L04609, doi: 10.1029/2007GL032250.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 17

FIGURES

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 19

 40’ 30’ 20’ 10’ 122o

W 

 30’ 

 40’ 

 50’ 

 38o

N 

 10’ 

elevation (m)

−100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

San

Pablo

Bay

San

Francisco

Bay

Pacific

Ocean

Carquinez

Strait

Rodeo

San

Rafael

Oakland

Alameda

Vallejo

Mare

 Island

San

Francisco

Fort Point

Presidio

Saulsalito

Palo

 Alto

Alvisto

Richmond

Berkeley

Hunters

Pt.

San

Mateo

Hayward

5 10 15 20

(km) 

Golden Gate

Figure 1: Topographic map of the San Francisco Bay area with San Francisco and other major population centers

shown.

Figure 2: An aerial view of the Port of San Francisco, with the city skyline in the distance.
20 Uslu et al.

A

B

C

A

B

C

 124o

W 123o

W 122o

W 121o

W 

 36o

N 

 37o

N 

 38o

N 

 39o

N 

Pacific Ocean

San Francisco

Monterey

Santa Cruz

San Jose

Berkeley

Pt. Reyes

Figure 3: Extents of the reference inundation (red) and optimized forecast (gray) model grids.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 21

Figure 4: Map of the Pacific Ocean Basin showing the location of the 11 historical events used to test and validate

the San Francisco model. Relative earthquake magnitude is shown by the varying sizes and colors of the filled

circles. The largest magnitude earthquake used in model validation was the 1946 Unimak Mw 8.5 earthquake,

denoted by the red circle.
22 Uslu et al.

Figure 5: Map of the Pacific Ocean Basin showing the synthetic Mw 9.3 scenarios used to test the San Francisco

model. Red circles mark the location of each source relative to one another and to San Francisco, denoted by the

solid star. Specific unit source combinations are provided alongside each red circle.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 23

5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5

−30

−20

−10

0 

10 

20 

30 

40 

 1946 Unimak Tsunami at San Francisco Bay (37.806°N, 237.535°E) tide gauge at 4.7 m depth 

time (hr) after the earthquake

water surface elevation (cm)

tide record

reference inundation model

standby inundation model

Figure 6: Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed tsunami generated during the

1946 Unimak earthquake. The observed tidal record (green) is shown with the reference inundation (red) and

optimized forecast (black) model results superimposed.
24 Uslu et al.

Longitude °E

Latitude °N

237.45 237.5 237.55 237.6 237.65

37.6

37.65

37.7

37.75

37.8

wave height (m)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

 30’ 29’ 122o

W 

 28.00’ 

 27’ 26’ 25’ 

 42’ 

 37oN 

 44.00’ 

 46’ 

 48’ 

 30’ 29’ 122o

W 

 28.00’ 

 27’ 26’ 25’ 

 42’ 

 37oN 

 44.00’ 

 46’ 

 48’ 

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

−20

0

20

40

tide gauge from Unimak 1946 located at 37.8061°N, 237.535°E 

time after earthquake (hr)

wave height (cm)

Figure 7: The maximum wave height and tide gauge simulation of the 1946 tsunami at the San Francisco reference model grid.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 25

Longitude °E

Latitude °N

237.5 237.55 237.6 237.65

37.66

37.68

37.7

37.72

37.74

37.76

37.78

37.8

37.82

37.84

wave height (m)

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

−20

0

20

40

tide gauge from Unimak 1946 located at 37.8061°N, 237.535°E 

time after earthquake (hr)

waveheight (cm)

Figure 8: The maximum wave height and tide gauge simulation of the 1946 Unimak tsunami at the San Francisco

forecast model grid.
26 Uslu et al.

Longitude °E

Latitude °N

237.5 237.55 237.6 237.65

37.66

37.68

37.7

37.72

37.74

37.76

37.78

37.8

37.82

37.84

wave height (m)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

−100

−50

0

50

100

tide gauge from KISZ 22–31 located at 37.8061°N, 237.535°E 

time after earthquake (hr)

waveheight (cm)

Figure 9: The maximum wave height and tide gauge simulation of a synthetic tsunami from Japan at the San

Francisco forecast model grid.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 27

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

−6

−4

−2

0 

2 

4 

 1994 Kuril Islands Tsunami at San Francisco Bay (37.806°N 237.535°E) tide gauge at 4.7 m depth ,

time (hr) after the earthquake

water surface elevation (cm)

reference inundation model

standby inundation model

Figure 10: Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed tsunami generated during the

1994 Kuril Unimak earthquake. The observed tidal record (green) is shown with the reference inundation (red)

and optimized forecast (black) model results superimposed.

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

−3

−2

−1

0 

1 

2 

3 

4 

 1996 Andreanov Tsunami at San Francisco Bay (37.8067°N, 237.535°E) tide gauge at 4.7 m depth 

time (hr) after the earthquake

water surface elevation (cm)

reference inundation model

standby inundation model

Figure 11: Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed tsunami generated during the

1996 Andreanov earthquake. The observed tidal record (green) is shown with the reference inundation (red) and

optimized forecast (black) model results superimposed.
28 Uslu et al.

12.5 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 

−8

−6

−4

−2

0 

2 

4 

6 

8 

 2001 Peru Tsunami at San Francisco Bay (37.806°N, 237.535°E) tide gauge at 4.7 m depth 

time (hr) after the earthquake

water surface elevation (cm)

tide record

reference inundation model

standby inundation model

Figure 12: Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed tsunami generated during the

2001 Peru earthquake. The observed tidal record (green) is shown with the reference inundation (red) and optimized forecast (black) model results superimposed.

6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 

−1.5

−1 

−0.5

0 

0.5 

1 

 2003 Rat Island Tsunami at San Francisco Bay (37.806°N, 237.535°E) tide gauge at 4.7 m depth 

time (hr) after the earthquake

water surface elevation (cm)

reference inundation model

standby inundation model

Figure 13: Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed tsunami generated during the

2003 Rat Island earthquake. The observed tidal record (green) is shown with the reference inundation (red) and

optimized forecast (black) model results superimposed.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 29

11 11.5 12 12.5 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5

−5

0 

5 

 2006 Tonga Tsunami at San Francisco Bay (37.806°N, 237.535°E) tide gauge at 4.7 m depth 

time (hr) after the earthquake

water surface elevation (cm)

reference inundation model

standby inundation model

Figure 14: Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed tsunami generated during the

2006 Tonga earthquake. The observed tidal record (green) is shown with the reference inundation (red) and

optimized forecast (black) model results superimposed.

8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 13 

−15

−10

−5 

0 

5 

10 

 2006 Kuril Islands Tsunami at San Francisco Bay (37.806°N, 237.535°E) tide gauge at 4.7 m depth

time (hr) after the earthquake

water surface elevation (cm)

tide record

reference inundation model

standby inundation model

Figure 15: Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed tsunami generated during the

2006 Kuril earthquake. The observed tidal record (green) is shown with the reference inundation (red) and optimized forecast (black) model results superimposed.
30 Uslu et al.

9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 13 13.5

−8

−6

−4

−2

0 

2 

4 

6 

8 

 2007 Kuril Islands Tsunami at San Francisco Bay (37.806°N, 237.535°E) tide gauge at 4.7 m depth 

time (hr) after the earthquake

water surface elevation (cm)

tide record

reference inundation model

standby inundation model

Figure 16: Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed tsunami generated during the

2007 Kuril earthquake. The observed tidal record (green) is shown with the reference inundation (red) and optimized forecast (black) model results superimposed.

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

−4

−3

−2

−1

0 

1 

2 

3 

4 

 2007 Solomon Tsunami at San Francisco Bay (37.806°N, 237.535°E) tide gauge at 4.7 m depth 

time (hr) after the earthquake

water surface elevation (cm)

reference inundation model

standby inundation model

Figure 17: Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed tsunami generated during the

2007 Solomon earthquake. The observed tidal record (green) is shown with the reference inundation (red) and

optimized forecast (black) model results superimposed.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 31

12 13 14 15 16 17 18

−3

−2

−1

0 

1 

2 

 2007 Peru Tsunami at San Francisco Bay (37.806°N, 237.535°E) tide gauge at 4.7 m depth

time (hr) after the earthquake

water surface elevation (cm)

reference inundation model

standby inundation model

Figure 18: Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed tsunami generated during the

2007 Peru earthquake. The observed tidal record (green) is shown with the reference inundation (red) and optimized forecast (black) model results superimposed.

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

−0.6

−0.4

−0.2

0 

0.2 

0.4 

0.6 

 2007 Chile Tsunami at San Francisco Bay (37.806°N, 237.535°E) tide gauge at 4.7 m depth 

time (hr) after the earthquake

water surface elevation (cm)

reference inundation model

standby inundation model

Figure 19: Comparison at the Presidio tide gauge of the modeled and observed tsunami generated during the

2007 Chile earthquake. The observed tidal record (green) is shown with the reference inundation (red) and optimized forecast (black) model results superimposed.
32 Uslu et al.

(a) 1946 Unimak (b) 1994 Kuril Islands

(c) 1996 Andreanov (d) 2001 Peru

Figure 20: Maximum wave heights computed with reference model grids from (a) 1946 Unimak tsunami, (b)

1994 Kuril Islands tsunami, (c) 1996 Andreanov tsunami and (d) 2001 Peru tsunami.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 33

(a) 2003 Rat Island (b) 2006 Tonga

(c) 2006 Kuril Islands (d) 2007 Kuril Islands

Figure 21: Maximum wave heights computed with reference model grids from (a) 2003 Rat Islands tsunami, (b)

2006 Tonga tsunami, (c) 2006 Kuril Islands tsunami and (d) 2007 Kuril Islands tsunami.
34 Uslu et al.

(a) 2007 Solomon (b) 2007 Peru

(c) 2007 Chile

Figure 22: Maximum wave heights computed with reference model grids from (a) 2007 Solomon tsunami, (b)

2007 Peru tsunami and (c) 2007 Chile tsunami.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 35

(a) 1946 Unimak (b) 1994 Kuril Islands

(c) 1996 Andreanov (d) 2001 Peru

Figure 23: Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from (a) 1946 Unimak tsunami, (b) 1994

Kuril Islands tsunami, (c) 1996 Andreanov tsunami and (d) 2001 Peru tsunami.
36 Uslu et al.

(a) 2003 Rat Island (b) 2006 Tonga

(c) 2006 Kuril Islands (d) 2007 Kuril Islands

Figure 24: Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from (a) 2003 Rat Islands tsunami, (b)

2006 Tonga tsunami, (c) 2006 Kuril Islands tsunami and (d) 2007 Kuril Islands tsunami.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 37

(a) 2007 Solomon (b) 2007 Peru

(c) 2007 Chile

Figure 25: Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from (a) 2007 Solomon tsunami, (b) 2007

Peru tsunami and (c) 2007 Chile tsunami.
38 Uslu et al.

 180o

W 

 120o

W 

 60o

W 

 40o

S 

 0o

 

 40o

N 

7.6015m

1.1402

3.4207

5.7011

San Francisco

Figure 26: The predicted tsunami wave height response at Presidio tide gauge from Mw 9.3 events modeled from

a 1000 km × 100 km source area with 30-m rupture.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 39

(a) KISZ 22–31 (b) KISZ 1–10

(c) ACSZ 12–21 (d) ACSZ 22–31

Figure 27: Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from synthetic scenarios 1–4.
40 Uslu et al.

(a) ACSZ 38–47 (b) ACSZ 56–65

(c) CASZ 1–10 (d) ECSZ 1–10

Figure 28: Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from synthetic scenarios 5–8.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 41

(a) SASZ 40–49 (b) SCSZ 3–12

(c) NTSZ 20–29 (d) NTSZ 30–39

Figure 29: Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from synthetic scenarios 9–12.
42 Uslu et al.

(a) NVSZ 28–37 (b) MOSZ 1–10

(c) NGSZ 3–12 (d) EPSZ 6–15

Figure 30: Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from synthetic scenarios 13–16.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 43

(a) NRSZ 12–21 (b) KISZ 32–41

Figure 31: Maximum wave heights computed with forecast model grids from synthetic scenarios 17–18.

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 45

Appendix A.

A1. Reference model *.in file for San Francisco,

California

0.0001 Minimum amplitude of input offshore wave (m):

5 Input minimum depth for offshore (m)

0.1 Input "dry land" depth for inundation (m)

0.0009 Input friction coefficient (n**2)

1 let a and b run up

100.0 max eta before blow up (m)

0.7 Input time step (sec)

61715 Input amount of steps

5 Compute "A" arrays every n-th time step, n=

5 Compute "B" arrays every n-th time step, n=

150 Input number of steps between snapshots

0 ...Starting from

1 ...Saving grid every n-th node, n=

A2. Forecast model *.in file for San Francisco, California

0.001 Minimum amplitude of input offshore wave (m):

5 Input minimum depth for offshore (m)

0.1 Input "dry land" depth for inundation (m)

0.0009 Input friction coefficient (n**2)

1 let a and b run up

300.0 max eta before blow up (m)

1.8 Input time step (sec)

16000 Input amount of steps (8hrs)

2 Compute "A" arrays every n-th time step, n=

2 Compute "B" arrays every n-th time step, n=

40 Input number of steps between snapshots

0 ...Starting from

1 ...Saving grid every n-th node, n=

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 47

Appendix B. Propagation Database:

Pacific Ocean Unit Sources

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol.

3 — San Francisco, California 49

1

5

10

15 20

25

30

40

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45

50

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Figure B1: Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia Subduction Zone unit sources.
50 Uslu et al.

Table B1: Earthquake parameters for Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia Subduction Zone unit sources.

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

acsz–1a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 164.7994 55.9606 299 17 19.61

acsz–1b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 164.4310 55.5849 299 17 5

acsz–2a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 166.3418 55.4016 310.2 17 19.61

acsz–2b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 165.8578 55.0734 310.2 17 5

acsz–3a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 167.2939 54.8919 300.2 23.36 24.82

acsz–3b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 166.9362 54.5356 300.2 23.36 5

acsz–4a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 168.7131 54.2852 310.2 38.51 25.33

acsz–4b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 168.3269 54.0168 310.2 24 5

acsz–5a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 169.7447 53.7808 302.8 37.02 23.54

acsz–5b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 169.4185 53.4793 302.8 21.77 5

acsz–6a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 171.0144 53.3054 303.2 35.31 22.92

acsz–6b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 170.6813 52.9986 303.2 21 5

acsz–7a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 172.1500 52.8528 298.2 35.56 20.16

acsz–7b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 171.8665 52.5307 298.2 17.65 5

acsz–8a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 173.2726 52.4579 290.8 37.92 20.35

acsz–8b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 173.0681 52.1266 290.8 17.88 5

acsz–9a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 174.5866 52.1434 289 39.09 21.05

acsz–9b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 174.4027 51.8138 289 18.73 5

acsz–10a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 175.8784 51.8526 286.1 40.51 20.87

acsz–10b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 175.7265 51.5245 286.1 18.51 5

acsz–11a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 177.1140 51.6488 280 15 17.94

acsz–11b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 176.9937 51.2215 280 15 5

acsz–12a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 178.4500 51.5690 273 15 17.94

acsz–12b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 178.4130 51.1200 273 15 5

acsz–13a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 179.8550 51.5340 271 15 17.94

acsz–13b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 179.8420 51.0850 271 15 5

acsz–14a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 181.2340 51.5780 267 15 17.94

acsz–14b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 181.2720 51.1290 267 15 5

acsz–15a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 182.6380 51.6470 265 15 17.94

acsz–15b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 182.7000 51.2000 265 15 5

acsz–16a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 184.0550 51.7250 264 15 17.94

acsz–16b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 184.1280 51.2780 264 15 5

acsz–17a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 185.4560 51.8170 262 15 17.94

acsz–17b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 185.5560 51.3720 262 15 5

acsz–18a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 186.8680 51.9410 261 15 17.94

acsz–18b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 186.9810 51.4970 261 15 5

acsz–19a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 188.2430 52.1280 257 15 17.94

acsz–19b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 188.4060 51.6900 257 15 5

acsz–20a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 189.5810 52.3550 251 15 17.94

acsz–20b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 189.8180 51.9300 251 15 5

acsz–21a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 190.9570 52.6470 251 15 17.94

acsz–21b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 191.1960 52.2220 251 15 5

acsz–21z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 190.7399 53.0443 250.8 15 30.88

acsz–22a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 192.2940 52.9430 247 15 17.94

acsz–22b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 192.5820 52.5300 247 15 5

acsz–22z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 192.0074 53.3347 247.8 15 30.88

acsz–23a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 193.6270 53.3070 245 15 17.94

acsz–23b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 193.9410 52.9000 245 15 5

acsz–23z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 193.2991 53.6768 244.6 15 30.88

acsz–24a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 194.9740 53.6870 245 15 17.94

acsz–24b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 195.2910 53.2800 245 15 5

acsz–24y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 194.3645 54.4604 244.4 15 43.82

acsz–24z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 194.6793 54.0674 244.6 15 30.88

acsz–25a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 196.4340 54.0760 250 15 17.94

acsz–25b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 196.6930 53.6543 250 15 5

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PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 51

Table B1: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

acsz–25y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 195.9009 54.8572 247.9 15 43.82

acsz–25z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 196.1761 54.4536 248.1 15 30.88

acsz–26a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 197.8970 54.3600 253 15 17.94

acsz–26b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 198.1200 53.9300 253 15 5

acsz–26y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 197.5498 55.1934 253.1 15 43.82

acsz–26z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 197.7620 54.7770 253.3 15 30.88

acsz–27a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 199.4340 54.5960 256 15 17.94

acsz–27b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 199.6200 54.1600 256 15 5

acsz–27x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 198.9736 55.8631 256.5 15 56.24

acsz–27y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 199.1454 55.4401 256.6 15 43.82

acsz–27z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 199.3135 55.0170 256.8 15 30.88

acsz–28a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 200.8820 54.8300 253 15 17.94

acsz–28b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 201.1080 54.4000 253 15 5

acsz–28x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 200.1929 56.0559 252.5 15 56.24

acsz–28y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 200.4167 55.6406 252.7 15 43.82

acsz–28z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 200.6360 55.2249 252.9 15 30.88

acsz–29a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 202.2610 55.1330 247 15 17.94

acsz–29b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 202.5650 54.7200 247 15 5

acsz–29x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 201.2606 56.2861 245.7 15 56.24

acsz–29y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 201.5733 55.8888 246 15 43.82

acsz–29z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 201.8797 55.4908 246.2 15 30.88

acsz–30a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 203.6040 55.5090 240 15 17.94

acsz–30b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 203.9970 55.1200 240 15 5

acsz–30w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 201.9901 56.9855 239.5 15 69.12

acsz–30x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 202.3851 56.6094 239.8 15 56.24

acsz–30y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 202.7724 56.2320 240.2 15 43.82

acsz–30z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 203.1521 55.8534 240.5 15 30.88

acsz–31a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 204.8950 55.9700 236 15 17.94

acsz–31b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 205.3400 55.5980 236 15 5

acsz–31w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 203.0825 57.3740 234.5 15 69.12

acsz–31x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 203.5408 57.0182 234.9 15 56.24

acsz–31y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 203.9904 56.6607 235.3 15 43.82

acsz–31z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 204.4315 56.3016 235.7 15 30.88

acsz–32a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 206.2080 56.4730 236 15 17.94

acsz–32b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 206.6580 56.1000 236 15 5

acsz–32w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 204.4129 57.8908 234.3 15 69.12

acsz–32x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 204.8802 57.5358 234.7 15 56.24

acsz–32y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 205.3385 57.1792 235.1 15 43.82

acsz–32z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 205.7880 56.8210 235.5 15 30.88

acsz–33a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 207.5370 56.9750 236 15 17.94

acsz–33b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 207.9930 56.6030 236 15 5

acsz–33w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 205.7126 58.3917 234.2 15 69.12

acsz–33x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 206.1873 58.0371 234.6 15 56.24

acsz–33y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 206.6527 57.6808 235 15 43.82

acsz–33z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 207.1091 57.3227 235.4 15 30.88

acsz–34a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 208.9371 57.5124 236 15 17.94

acsz–34b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 209.4000 57.1400 236 15 5

acsz–34w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 206.9772 58.8804 233.5 15 69.12

acsz–34x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 207.4677 58.5291 233.9 15 56.24

acsz–34y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 207.9485 58.1760 234.3 15 43.82

acsz–34z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 208.4198 57.8213 234.7 15 30.88

acsz–35a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 210.2597 58.0441 230 15 17.94

acsz–35b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 210.8000 57.7000 230 15 5

acsz–35w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 208.0204 59.3199 228.8 15 69.12

acsz–35x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 208.5715 58.9906 229.3 15 56.24

(continued on next page)
52 Uslu et al.

Table B1: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

acsz–35y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 209.1122 58.6590 229.7 15 43.82

acsz–35z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 209.6425 58.3252 230.2 15 30.88

acsz–36a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 211.3249 58.6565 218 15 17.94

acsz–36b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 212.0000 58.3800 218 15 5

acsz–36w Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 208.5003 59.5894 215.6 15 69.12

acsz–36x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 209.1909 59.3342 216.2 15 56.24

acsz–36y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 209.8711 59.0753 216.8 15 43.82

acsz–36z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 210.5412 58.8129 217.3 15 30.88

acsz–37a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 212.2505 59.2720 213.7 15 17.94

acsz–37b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 212.9519 59.0312 213.7 15 5

acsz–37x Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 210.1726 60.0644 213 15 56.24

acsz–37y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 210.8955 59.8251 213.7 15 43.82

acsz–37z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 211.6079 59.5820 214.3 15 30.88

acsz–38a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 214.6555 60.1351 260.1 0 15

acsz–38b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 214.8088 59.6927 260.1 0 15

acsz–38y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 214.3737 60.9838 259 0 15

acsz–38z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 214.5362 60.5429 259 0 15

acsz–39a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 216.5607 60.2480 267 0 15

acsz–39b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 216.6068 59.7994 267 0 15

acsz–40a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 219.3069 59.7574 310.9 0 15

acsz–40b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 218.7288 59.4180 310.9 0 15

acsz–41a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 220.4832 59.3390 300.7 0 15

acsz–41b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 220.0382 58.9529 300.7 0 15

acsz–42a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 221.8835 58.9310 298.9 0 15

acsz–42b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 221.4671 58.5379 298.9 0 15

acsz–43a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 222.9711 58.6934 282.3 0 15

acsz–43b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 222.7887 58.2546 282.3 0 15

acsz–44a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 224.9379 57.9054 340.9 12 11.09

acsz–44b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 224.1596 57.7617 340.9 7 5

acsz–45a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 225.4994 57.1634 334.1 12 11.09

acsz–45b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 224.7740 56.9718 334.1 7 5

acsz–46a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 226.1459 56.3552 334.1 12 11.09

acsz–46b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 225.4358 56.1636 334.1 7 5

acsz–47a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 226.7731 55.5830 332.3 12 11.09

acsz–47b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 226.0887 55.3785 332.3 7 5

acsz–48a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 227.4799 54.6763 339.4 12 11.09

acsz–48b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 226.7713 54.5217 339.4 7 5

acsz–49a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 227.9482 53.8155 341.2 12 11.09

acsz–49b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 227.2462 53.6737 341.2 7 5

acsz–50a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 228.3970 53.2509 324.5 12 11.09

acsz–50b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 227.8027 52.9958 324.5 7 5

acsz–51a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 229.1844 52.6297 318.4 12 11.09

acsz–51b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 228.6470 52.3378 318.4 7 5

acsz–52a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 230.0306 52.0768 310.9 12 11.09

acsz–52b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 229.5665 51.7445 310.9 7 5

acsz–53a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 231.1735 51.5258 310.9 12 11.09

acsz–53b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 230.7150 51.1935 310.9 7 5

acsz–54a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 232.2453 50.8809 314.1 12 11.09

acsz–54b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 231.7639 50.5655 314.1 7 5

acsz–55a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 233.3066 49.9032 333.7 12 11.09

acsz–55b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 232.6975 49.7086 333.7 7 5

acsz–56a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 234.0588 49.1702 315 11 12.82

acsz–56b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 233.5849 48.8584 315 9 5

acsz–57a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 234.9041 48.2596 341 11 12.82

acsz–57b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 234.2797 48.1161 341 9 5

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PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 53

Table B1: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

acsz–58a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.3021 47.3812 344 11 12.82

acsz–58b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 234.6776 47.2597 344 9 5

acsz–59a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.6432 46.5082 345 11 12.82

acsz–59b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.0257 46.3941 345 9 5

acsz–60a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.8640 45.5429 356 11 12.82

acsz–60b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.2363 45.5121 356 9 5

acsz–61a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.9106 44.6227 359 11 12.82

acsz–61b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.2913 44.6150 359 9 5

acsz–62a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.9229 43.7245 359 11 12.82

acsz–62b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.3130 43.7168 359 9 5

acsz–63a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 236.0220 42.9020 350 11 12.82

acsz–63b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.4300 42.8254 350 9 5

acsz–64a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.9638 41.9818 345 11 12.82

acsz–64b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.3919 41.8677 345 9 5

acsz–65a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 236.2643 41.1141 345 11 12.82

acsz–65b Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 235.7000 41.0000 345 9 5

acsz–238a Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 213.2878 59.8406 236.8 15 17.94

acsz–238y Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 212.3424 60.5664 236.8 15 43.82

acsz–238z Aleutian–Alaska–Cascadia 212.8119 60.2035 236.8 15 30.88

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 55

1

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Figure B2: Central and South America Subduction Zone unit sources.
56 Uslu et al.

Table B2: Earthquake parameters for Central and South America Subduction Zone unit sources.

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

cssz–1a Central and South America 254.4573 20.8170 359 19 15.4

cssz–1b Central and South America 254.0035 20.8094 359 12 5

cssz–1z Central and South America 254.7664 20.8222 359 50 31.67

cssz–2a Central and South America 254.5765 20.2806 336.8 19 15.4

cssz–2b Central and South America 254.1607 20.1130 336.8 12 5

cssz–3a Central and South America 254.8789 19.8923 310.6 18.31 15.27

cssz–3b Central and South America 254.5841 19.5685 310.6 11.85 5

cssz–4a Central and South America 255.6167 19.2649 313.4 17.62 15.12

cssz–4b Central and South America 255.3056 18.9537 313.4 11.68 5

cssz–5a Central and South America 256.2240 18.8148 302.7 16.92 15

cssz–5b Central and South America 255.9790 18.4532 302.7 11.54 5

cssz–6a Central and South America 256.9425 18.4383 295.1 16.23 14.87

cssz–6b Central and South America 256.7495 18.0479 295.1 11.38 5

cssz–7a Central and South America 257.8137 18.0339 296.9 15.54 14.74

cssz–7b Central and South America 257.6079 17.6480 296.9 11.23 5

cssz–8a Central and South America 258.5779 17.7151 290.4 14.85 14.61

cssz–8b Central and South America 258.4191 17.3082 290.4 11.08 5

cssz–9a Central and South America 259.4578 17.4024 290.5 14.15 14.47

cssz–9b Central and South America 259.2983 16.9944 290.5 10.92 5

cssz–10a Central and South America 260.3385 17.0861 290.8 13.46 14.34

cssz–10b Central and South America 260.1768 16.6776 290.8 10.77 5

cssz–11a Central and South America 261.2255 16.7554 291.8 12.77 14.21

cssz–11b Central and South America 261.0556 16.3487 291.8 10.62 5

cssz–12a Central and South America 262.0561 16.4603 288.9 12.08 14.08

cssz–12b Central and South America 261.9082 16.0447 288.9 10.46 5

cssz–13a Central and South America 262.8638 16.2381 283.2 11.38 13.95

cssz–13b Central and South America 262.7593 15.8094 283.2 10.31 5

cssz–14a Central and South America 263.6066 16.1435 272.1 10.69 13.81

cssz–14b Central and South America 263.5901 15.7024 272.1 10.15 5

cssz–15a Central and South America 264.8259 15.8829 293 10 13.68

cssz–15b Central and South America 264.6462 15.4758 293 10 5

cssz–15y Central and South America 265.1865 16.6971 293 10 31.05

cssz–15z Central and South America 265.0060 16.2900 293 10 22.36

cssz–16a Central and South America 265.7928 15.3507 304.9 15 15.82

cssz–16b Central and South America 265.5353 14.9951 304.9 12.5 5

cssz–16y Central and South America 266.3092 16.0619 304.9 15 41.7

cssz–16z Central and South America 266.0508 15.7063 304.9 15 28.76

cssz–17a Central and South America 266.4947 14.9019 299.5 20 17.94

cssz–17b Central and South America 266.2797 14.5346 299.5 15 5

cssz–17y Central and South America 266.9259 15.6365 299.5 20 52.14

cssz–17z Central and South America 266.7101 15.2692 299.5 20 35.04

cssz–18a Central and South America 267.2827 14.4768 298 21.5 17.94

cssz–18b Central and South America 267.0802 14.1078 298 15 5

cssz–18y Central and South America 267.6888 15.2148 298 21.5 54.59

cssz–18z Central and South America 267.4856 14.8458 298 21.5 36.27

cssz–19a Central and South America 268.0919 14.0560 297.6 23 17.94

cssz–19b Central and South America 267.8943 13.6897 297.6 15 5

cssz–19y Central and South America 268.4880 14.7886 297.6 23 57.01

cssz–19z Central and South America 268.2898 14.4223 297.6 23 37.48

cssz–20a Central and South America 268.8929 13.6558 296.2 24 17.94

cssz–20b Central and South America 268.7064 13.2877 296.2 15 5

cssz–20y Central and South America 269.1796 14.2206 296.2 45.5 73.94

cssz–20z Central and South America 269.0362 13.9382 296.2 45.5 38.28

cssz–21a Central and South America 269.6797 13.3031 292.6 25 17.94

cssz–21b Central and South America 269.5187 12.9274 292.6 15 5

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PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 57

Table B2: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

cssz–21x Central and South America 269.8797 13.7690 292.6 68 131.8

cssz–21y Central and South America 269.8130 13.6137 292.6 68 85.43

cssz–21z Central and South America 269.7463 13.4584 292.6 68 39.07

cssz–22a Central and South America 270.4823 13.0079 288.6 25 17.94

cssz–22b Central and South America 270.3492 12.6221 288.6 15 5

cssz–22x Central and South America 270.6476 13.4864 288.6 68 131.8

cssz–22y Central and South America 270.5925 13.3269 288.6 68 85.43

cssz–22z Central and South America 270.5374 13.1674 288.6 68 39.07

cssz–23a Central and South America 271.3961 12.6734 292.4 25 17.94

cssz–23b Central and South America 271.2369 12.2972 292.4 15 5

cssz–23x Central and South America 271.5938 13.1399 292.4 68 131.8

cssz–23y Central and South America 271.5279 12.9844 292.4 68 85.43

cssz–23z Central and South America 271.4620 12.8289 292.4 68 39.07

cssz–24a Central and South America 272.3203 12.2251 300.2 25 17.94

cssz–24b Central and South America 272.1107 11.8734 300.2 15 5

cssz–24x Central and South America 272.5917 12.6799 300.2 67 131.1

cssz–24y Central and South America 272.5012 12.5283 300.2 67 85.1

cssz–24z Central and South America 272.4107 12.3767 300.2 67 39.07

cssz–25a Central and South America 273.2075 11.5684 313.8 25 17.94

cssz–25b Central and South America 272.9200 11.2746 313.8 15 5

cssz–25x Central and South America 273.5950 11.9641 313.8 66 130.4

cssz–25y Central and South America 273.4658 11.8322 313.8 66 84.75

cssz–25z Central and South America 273.3366 11.7003 313.8 66 39.07

cssz–26a Central and South America 273.8943 10.8402 320.4 25 17.94

cssz–26b Central and South America 273.5750 10.5808 320.4 15 5

cssz–26x Central and South America 274.3246 11.1894 320.4 66 130.4

cssz–26y Central and South America 274.1811 11.0730 320.4 66 84.75

cssz–26z Central and South America 274.0377 10.9566 320.4 66 39.07

cssz–27a Central and South America 274.4569 10.2177 316.1 25 17.94

cssz–27b Central and South America 274.1590 9.9354 316.1 15 5

cssz–27z Central and South America 274.5907 10.3444 316.1 66 39.07

cssz–28a Central and South America 274.9586 9.8695 297.1 22 14.54

cssz–28b Central and South America 274.7661 9.4988 297.1 11 5

cssz–28z Central and South America 275.1118 10.1643 297.1 42.5 33.27

cssz–29a Central and South America 275.7686 9.4789 296.6 19 11.09

cssz–29b Central and South America 275.5759 9.0992 296.6 7 5

cssz–30a Central and South America 276.6346 8.9973 302.2 19 9.36

cssz–30b Central and South America 276.4053 8.6381 302.2 5 5

cssz–31a Central and South America 277.4554 8.4152 309.1 19 7.62

cssz–31b Central and South America 277.1851 8.0854 309.1 3 5

cssz–31z Central and South America 277.7260 8.7450 309.1 19 23.9

cssz–32a Central and South America 278.1112 7.9425 303 18.67 8.49

cssz–32b Central and South America 277.8775 7.5855 303 4 5

cssz–32z Central and South America 278.3407 8.2927 303 21.67 24.49

cssz–33a Central and South America 278.7082 7.6620 287.6 18.33 10.23

cssz–33b Central and South America 278.5785 7.2555 287.6 6 5

cssz–33z Central and South America 278.8328 8.0522 287.6 24.33 25.95

cssz–34a Central and South America 279.3184 7.5592 269.5 18 17.94

cssz–34b Central and South America 279.3223 7.1320 269.5 15 5

cssz–35a Central and South America 280.0039 7.6543 255.9 17.67 14.54

cssz–35b Central and South America 280.1090 7.2392 255.9 11 5

cssz–35x Central and South America 279.7156 8.7898 255.9 29.67 79.22

cssz–35y Central and South America 279.8118 8.4113 255.9 29.67 54.47

cssz–35z Central and South America 279.9079 8.0328 255.9 29.67 29.72

cssz–36a Central and South America 281.2882 7.6778 282.5 17.33 11.09

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58 Uslu et al.

Table B2: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

cssz–36b Central and South America 281.1948 7.2592 282.5 7 5

cssz–36x Central and South America 281.5368 8.7896 282.5 32.33 79.47

cssz–36y Central and South America 281.4539 8.4190 282.5 32.33 52.73

cssz–36z Central and South America 281.3710 8.0484 282.5 32.33 25.99

cssz–37a Central and South America 282.5252 6.8289 326.9 17 10.23

cssz–37b Central and South America 282.1629 6.5944 326.9 6 5

cssz–38a Central and South America 282.9469 5.5973 355.4 17 10.23

cssz–38b Central and South America 282.5167 5.5626 355.4 6 5

cssz–39a Central and South America 282.7236 4.3108 24.13 17 10.23

cssz–39b Central and South America 282.3305 4.4864 24.13 6 5

cssz–39z Central and South America 283.0603 4.1604 24.13 35 24.85

cssz–40a Central and South America 282.1940 3.3863 35.28 17 10.23

cssz–40b Central and South America 281.8427 3.6344 35.28 6 5

cssz–40y Central and South America 282.7956 2.9613 35.28 35 53.52

cssz–40z Central and South America 282.4948 3.1738 35.28 35 24.85

cssz–41a Central and South America 281.6890 2.6611 34.27 17 10.23

cssz–41b Central and South America 281.3336 2.9030 34.27 6 5

cssz–41z Central and South America 281.9933 2.4539 34.27 35 24.85

cssz–42a Central and South America 281.2266 1.9444 31.29 17 10.23

cssz–42b Central and South America 280.8593 2.1675 31.29 6 5

cssz–42z Central and South America 281.5411 1.7533 31.29 35 24.85

cssz–43a Central and South America 280.7297 1.1593 33.3 17 10.23

cssz–43b Central and South America 280.3706 1.3951 33.3 6 5

cssz–43z Central and South America 281.0373 0.9573 33.3 35 24.85

cssz–44a Central and South America 280.3018 0.4491 28.8 17 10.23

cssz–44b Central and South America 279.9254 0.6560 28.8 6 5

cssz–45a Central and South America 279.9083 –0.3259 26.91 10 8.49

cssz–45b Central and South America 279.5139 –0.1257 26.91 4 5

cssz–46a Central and South America 279.6461 –0.9975 15.76 10 8.49

cssz–46b Central and South America 279.2203 –0.8774 15.76 4 5

cssz–47a Central and South America 279.4972 –1.7407 6.9 10 8.49

cssz–47b Central and South America 279.0579 –1.6876 6.9 4 5

cssz–48a Central and South America 279.3695 –2.6622 8.96 10 8.49

cssz–48b Central and South America 278.9321 –2.5933 8.96 4 5

cssz–48y Central and South America 280.2444 –2.8000 8.96 10 25.85

cssz–48z Central and South America 279.8070 –2.7311 8.96 10 17.17

cssz–49a Central and South America 279.1852 –3.6070 13.15 10 8.49

cssz–49b Central and South America 278.7536 –3.5064 13.15 4 5

cssz–49y Central and South America 280.0486 –3.8082 13.15 10 25.85

cssz–49z Central and South America 279.6169 –3.7076 13.15 10 17.17

cssz–50a Central and South America 279.0652 –4.3635 4.78 10.33 9.64

cssz–50b Central and South America 278.6235 –4.3267 4.78 5.33 5

cssz–51a Central and South America 279.0349 –5.1773 359.4 10.67 10.81

cssz–51b Central and South America 278.5915 –5.1817 359.4 6.67 5

cssz–52a Central and South America 279.1047 –5.9196 349.8 11 11.96

cssz–52b Central and South America 278.6685 –5.9981 349.8 8 5

cssz–53a Central and South America 279.3044 –6.6242 339.2 10.25 11.74

cssz–53b Central and South America 278.8884 –6.7811 339.2 7.75 5

cssz–53y Central and South America 280.1024 –6.3232 339.2 19.25 37.12

cssz–53z Central and South America 279.7035 –6.4737 339.2 19.25 20.64

cssz–54a Central and South America 279.6256 –7.4907 340.8 9.5 11.53

cssz–54b Central and South America 279.2036 –7.6365 340.8 7.5 5

cssz–54y Central and South America 280.4267 –7.2137 340.8 20.5 37.29

cssz–54z Central and South America 280.0262 –7.3522 340.8 20.5 19.78

cssz–55a Central and South America 279.9348 –8.2452 335.4 8.75 11.74

(continued on next page)
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 59

Table B2: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

cssz–55b Central and South America 279.5269 –8.4301 335.4 7.75 5

cssz–55x Central and South America 281.0837 –7.7238 335.4 21.75 56.4

cssz–55y Central and South America 280.7009 –7.8976 335.4 21.75 37.88

cssz–55z Central and South America 280.3180 –8.0714 335.4 21.75 19.35

cssz–56a Central and South America 280.3172 –8.9958 331.6 8 11.09

cssz–56b Central and South America 279.9209 –9.2072 331.6 7 5

cssz–56x Central and South America 281.4212 –8.4063 331.6 23 57.13

cssz–56y Central and South America 281.0534 –8.6028 331.6 23 37.59

cssz–56z Central and South America 280.6854 –8.7993 331.6 23 18.05

cssz–57a Central and South America 280.7492 –9.7356 328.7 8.6 10.75

cssz–57b Central and South America 280.3640 –9.9663 328.7 6.6 5

cssz–57x Central and South America 281.8205 –9.0933 328.7 23.4 57.94

cssz–57y Central and South America 281.4636 –9.3074 328.7 23.4 38.08

cssz–57z Central and South America 281.1065 –9.5215 328.7 23.4 18.22

cssz–58a Central and South America 281.2275 –10.5350 330.5 9.2 10.4

cssz–58b Central and South America 280.8348 –10.7532 330.5 6.2 5

cssz–58y Central and South America 281.9548 –10.1306 330.5 23.8 38.57

cssz–58z Central and South America 281.5913 –10.3328 330.5 23.8 18.39

cssz–59a Central and South America 281.6735 –11.2430 326.2 9.8 10.05

cssz–59b Central and South America 281.2982 –11.4890 326.2 5.8 5

cssz–59y Central and South America 282.3675 –10.7876 326.2 24.2 39.06

cssz–59z Central and South America 282.0206 –11.0153 326.2 24.2 18.56

cssz–60a Central and South America 282.1864 –11.9946 326.5 10.4 9.71

cssz–60b Central and South America 281.8096 –12.2384 326.5 5.4 5

cssz–60y Central and South America 282.8821 –11.5438 326.5 24.6 39.55

cssz–60z Central and South America 282.5344 –11.7692 326.5 24.6 18.73

cssz–61a Central and South America 282.6944 –12.7263 325.5 11 9.36

cssz–61b Central and South America 282.3218 –12.9762 325.5 5 5

cssz–61y Central and South America 283.3814 –12.2649 325.5 25 40.03

cssz–61z Central and South America 283.0381 –12.4956 325.5 25 18.9

cssz–62a Central and South America 283.1980 –13.3556 319 11 9.79

cssz–62b Central and South America 282.8560 –13.6451 319 5.5 5

cssz–62y Central and South America 283.8178 –12.8300 319 27 42.03

cssz–62z Central and South America 283.5081 –13.0928 319 27 19.33

cssz–63a Central and South America 283.8032 –14.0147 317.9 11 10.23

cssz–63b Central and South America 283.4661 –14.3106 317.9 6 5

cssz–63z Central and South America 284.1032 –13.7511 317.9 29 19.77

cssz–64a Central and South America 284.4144 –14.6482 315.7 13 11.96

cssz–64b Central and South America 284.0905 –14.9540 315.7 8 5

cssz–65a Central and South America 285.0493 –15.2554 313.2 15 13.68

cssz–65b Central and South America 284.7411 –15.5715 313.2 10 5

cssz–66a Central and South America 285.6954 –15.7816 307.7 14.5 13.68

cssz–66b Central and South America 285.4190 –16.1258 307.7 10 5

cssz–67a Central and South America 286.4127 –16.2781 304.3 14 13.68

cssz–67b Central and South America 286.1566 –16.6381 304.3 10 5

cssz–67z Central and South America 286.6552 –15.9365 304.3 23 25.78

cssz–68a Central and South America 287.2481 –16.9016 311.8 14 13.68

cssz–68b Central and South America 286.9442 –17.2264 311.8 10 5

cssz–68z Central and South America 287.5291 –16.6007 311.8 26 25.78

cssz–69a Central and South America 287.9724 –17.5502 314.9 14 13.68

cssz–69b Central and South America 287.6496 –17.8590 314.9 10 5

cssz–69y Central and South America 288.5530 –16.9934 314.9 29 50.02

cssz–69z Central and South America 288.2629 –17.2718 314.9 29 25.78

cssz–70a Central and South America 288.6731 –18.2747 320.4 14 13.25

cssz–70b Central and South America 288.3193 –18.5527 320.4 9.5 5

(continued on next page)
60 Uslu et al.

Table B2: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

cssz–70y Central and South America 289.3032 –17.7785 320.4 30 50.35

cssz–70z Central and South America 288.9884 –18.0266 320.4 30 25.35

cssz–71a Central and South America 289.3089 –19.1854 333.2 14 12.82

cssz–71b Central and South America 288.8968 –19.3820 333.2 9 5

cssz–71y Central and South America 290.0357 –18.8382 333.2 31 50.67

cssz–71z Central and South America 289.6725 –19.0118 333.2 31 24.92

cssz–72a Central and South America 289.6857 –20.3117 352.4 14 12.54

cssz–72b Central and South America 289.2250 –20.3694 352.4 8.67 5

cssz–72z Central and South America 290.0882 –20.2613 352.4 32 24.63

cssz–73a Central and South America 289.7731 –21.3061 358.9 14 12.24

cssz–73b Central and South America 289.3053 –21.3142 358.9 8.33 5

cssz–73z Central and South America 290.1768 –21.2991 358.9 33 24.34

cssz–74a Central and South America 289.7610 –22.2671 3.06 14 11.96

cssz–74b Central and South America 289.2909 –22.2438 3.06 8 5

cssz–75a Central and South America 289.6982 –23.1903 4.83 14.09 11.96

cssz–75b Central and South America 289.2261 –23.1536 4.83 8 5

cssz–76a Central and South America 289.6237 –24.0831 4.67 14.18 11.96

cssz–76b Central and South America 289.1484 –24.0476 4.67 8 5

cssz–77a Central and South America 289.5538 –24.9729 4.3 14.27 11.96

cssz–77b Central and South America 289.0750 –24.9403 4.3 8 5

cssz–78a Central and South America 289.4904 –25.8621 3.86 14.36 11.96

cssz–78b Central and South America 289.0081 –25.8328 3.86 8 5

cssz–79a Central and South America 289.3491 –26.8644 11.34 14.45 11.96

cssz–79b Central and South America 288.8712 –26.7789 11.34 8 5

cssz–80a Central and South America 289.1231 –27.7826 14.16 14.54 11.96

cssz–80b Central and South America 288.6469 –27.6762 14.16 8 5

cssz–81a Central and South America 288.8943 –28.6409 13.19 14.63 11.96

cssz–81b Central and South America 288.4124 –28.5417 13.19 8 5

cssz–82a Central and South America 288.7113 –29.4680 9.68 14.72 11.96

cssz–82b Central and South America 288.2196 –29.3950 9.68 8 5

cssz–83a Central and South America 288.5944 –30.2923 5.36 14.81 11.96

cssz–83b Central and South America 288.0938 –30.2517 5.36 8 5

cssz–84a Central and South America 288.5223 –31.1639 3.8 14.9 11.96

cssz–84b Central and South America 288.0163 –31.1351 3.8 8 5

cssz–85a Central and South America 288.4748 –32.0416 2.55 15 11.96

cssz–85b Central and South America 287.9635 –32.0223 2.55 8 5

cssz–86a Central and South America 288.3901 –33.0041 7.01 15 11.96

cssz–86b Central and South America 287.8768 –32.9512 7.01 8 5

cssz–87a Central and South America 288.1050 –34.0583 19.4 15 11.96

cssz–87b Central and South America 287.6115 –33.9142 19.4 8 5

cssz–88a Central and South America 287.5309 –35.0437 32.81 15 11.96

cssz–88b Central and South America 287.0862 –34.8086 32.81 8 5

cssz–88z Central and South America 287.9308 –35.2545 32.81 30 24.9

cssz–89a Central and South America 287.2380 –35.5993 14.52 16.67 11.96

cssz–89b Central and South America 286.7261 –35.4914 14.52 8 5

cssz–89z Central and South America 287.7014 –35.6968 14.52 30 26.3

cssz–90a Central and South America 286.8442 –36.5645 22.64 18.33 11.96

cssz–90b Central and South America 286.3548 –36.4004 22.64 8 5

cssz–90z Central and South America 287.2916 –36.7142 22.64 30 27.68

cssz–91a Central and South America 286.5925 –37.2488 10.9 20 11.96

cssz–91b Central and South America 286.0721 –37.1690 10.9 8 5

cssz–91z Central and South America 287.0726 –37.3224 10.9 30 29.06

cssz–92a Central and South America 286.4254 –38.0945 8.23 20 11.96

cssz–92b Central and South America 285.8948 –38.0341 8.23 8 5

cssz–92z Central and South America 286.9303 –38.1520 8.23 26.67 29.06

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PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 61

Table B2: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

cssz–93a Central and South America 286.2047 –39.0535 13.46 20 11.96

cssz–93b Central and South America 285.6765 –38.9553 13.46 8 5

cssz–93z Central and South America 286.7216 –39.1495 13.46 23.33 29.06

cssz–94a Central and South America 286.0772 –39.7883 3.4 20 11.96

cssz–94b Central and South America 285.5290 –39.7633 3.4 8 5

cssz–94z Central and South America 286.6255 –39.8133 3.4 20 29.06

cssz–95a Central and South America 285.9426 –40.7760 9.84 20 11.96

cssz–95b Central and South America 285.3937 –40.7039 9.84 8 5

cssz–95z Central and South America 286.4921 –40.8481 9.84 20 29.06

cssz–96a Central and South America 285.7839 –41.6303 7.6 20 11.96

cssz–96b Central and South America 285.2245 –41.5745 7.6 8 5

cssz–96x Central and South America 287.4652 –41.7977 7.6 20 63.26

cssz–96y Central and South America 286.9043 –41.7419 7.6 20 46.16

cssz–96z Central and South America 286.3439 –41.6861 7.6 20 29.06

cssz–97a Central and South America 285.6695 –42.4882 5.3 20 11.96

cssz–97b Central and South America 285.0998 –42.4492 5.3 8 5

cssz–97x Central and South America 287.3809 –42.6052 5.3 20 63.26

cssz–97y Central and South America 286.8101 –42.5662 5.3 20 46.16

cssz–97z Central and South America 286.2396 –42.5272 5.3 20 29.06

cssz–98a Central and South America 285.5035 –43.4553 10.53 20 11.96

cssz–98b Central and South America 284.9322 –43.3782 10.53 8 5

cssz–98x Central and South America 287.2218 –43.6866 10.53 20 63.26

cssz–98y Central and South America 286.6483 –43.6095 10.53 20 46.16

cssz–98z Central and South America 286.0755 –43.5324 10.53 20 29.06

cssz–99a Central and South America 285.3700 –44.2595 4.86 20 11.96

cssz–99b Central and South America 284.7830 –44.2237 4.86 8 5

cssz–99x Central and South America 287.1332 –44.3669 4.86 20 63.26

cssz–99y Central and South America 286.5451 –44.3311 4.86 20 46.16

cssz–99z Central and South America 285.9574 –44.2953 4.86 20 29.06

cssz–100a Central and South America 285.2713 –45.1664 5.68 20 11.96

cssz–100b Central and South America 284.6758 –45.1246 5.68 8 5

cssz–100x Central and South America 287.0603 –45.2918 5.68 20 63.26

cssz–100y Central and South America 286.4635 –45.2500 5.68 20 46.16

cssz–100z Central and South America 285.8672 –45.2082 5.68 20 29.06

cssz–101a Central and South America 285.3080 –45.8607 352.6 20 9.36

cssz–101b Central and South America 284.7067 –45.9152 352.6 5 5

cssz–101y Central and South America 286.5089 –45.7517 352.6 20 43.56

cssz–101z Central and South America 285.9088 –45.8062 352.6 20 26.46

cssz–102a Central and South America 285.2028 –47.1185 17.72 5 9.36

cssz–102b Central and South America 284.5772 –46.9823 17.72 5 5

cssz–102y Central and South America 286.4588 –47.3909 17.72 5 18.07

cssz–102z Central and South America 285.8300 –47.2547 17.72 5 13.72

cssz–103a Central and South America 284.7075 –48.0396 23.37 7.5 11.53

cssz–103b Central and South America 284.0972 –47.8630 23.37 7.5 5

cssz–103x Central and South America 286.5511 –48.5694 23.37 7.5 31.11

cssz–103y Central and South America 285.9344 –48.3928 23.37 7.5 24.58

cssz–103z Central and South America 285.3199 –48.2162 23.37 7.5 18.05

cssz–104a Central and South America 284.3440 –48.7597 14.87 10 13.68

cssz–104b Central and South America 283.6962 –48.6462 14.87 10 5

cssz–104x Central and South America 286.2962 –49.1002 14.87 10 39.73

cssz–104y Central and South America 285.6440 –48.9867 14.87 10 31.05

cssz–104z Central and South America 284.9933 –48.8732 14.87 10 22.36

cssz–105a Central and South America 284.2312 –49.4198 0.25 9.67 13.4

cssz–105b Central and South America 283.5518 –49.4179 0.25 9.67 5

cssz–105x Central and South America 286.2718 –49.4255 0.25 9.67 38.59

(continued on next page)
62 Uslu et al.

Table B2: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

cssz–105y Central and South America 285.5908 –49.4236 0.25 9.67 30.2

cssz–105z Central and South America 284.9114 –49.4217 0.25 9.67 21.8

cssz–106a Central and South America 284.3730 –50.1117 347.5 9.25 13.04

cssz–106b Central and South America 283.6974 –50.2077 347.5 9.25 5

cssz–106x Central and South America 286.3916 –49.8238 347.5 9.25 37.15

cssz–106y Central and South America 285.7201 –49.9198 347.5 9.25 29.11

cssz–106z Central and South America 285.0472 –50.0157 347.5 9.25 21.07

cssz–107a Central and South America 284.7130 –50.9714 346.5 9 12.82

cssz–107b Central and South America 284.0273 –51.0751 346.5 9 5

cssz–107x Central and South America 286.7611 –50.6603 346.5 9 36.29

cssz–107y Central and South America 286.0799 –50.7640 346.5 9 28.47

cssz–107z Central and South America 285.3972 –50.8677 346.5 9 20.64

cssz–108a Central and South America 285.0378 –51.9370 352 8.67 12.54

cssz–108b Central and South America 284.3241 –51.9987 352 8.67 5

cssz–108x Central and South America 287.1729 –51.7519 352 8.67 35.15

cssz–108y Central and South America 286.4622 –51.8136 352 8.67 27.61

cssz–108z Central and South America 285.7505 –51.8753 352 8.67 20.07

cssz–109a Central and South America 285.2635 –52.8439 353.1 8.33 12.24

cssz–109b Central and South America 284.5326 –52.8974 353.1 8.33 5

cssz–109x Central and South America 287.4508 –52.6834 353.1 8.33 33.97

cssz–109y Central and South America 286.7226 –52.7369 353.1 8.33 26.73

cssz–109z Central and South America 285.9935 –52.7904 353.1 8.33 19.49

cssz–110a Central and South America 285.5705 –53.4139 334.2 8 11.96

cssz–110b Central and South America 284.8972 –53.6076 334.2 8 5

cssz–110x Central and South America 287.5724 –52.8328 334.2 8 32.83

cssz–110y Central and South America 286.9081 –53.0265 334.2 8 25.88

cssz–110z Central and South America 286.2408 –53.2202 334.2 8 18.92

cssz–111a Central and South America 286.1627 –53.8749 313.8 8 11.96

cssz–111b Central and South America 285.6382 –54.1958 313.8 8 5

cssz–111x Central and South America 287.7124 –52.9122 313.8 8 32.83

cssz–111y Central and South America 287.1997 –53.2331 313.8 8 25.88

cssz–111z Central and South America 286.6832 –53.5540 313.8 8 18.92

cssz–112a Central and South America 287.3287 –54.5394 316.4 8 11.96

cssz–112b Central and South America 286.7715 –54.8462 316.4 8 5

cssz–112x Central and South America 288.9756 –53.6190 316.4 8 32.83

cssz–112y Central and South America 288.4307 –53.9258 316.4 8 25.88

cssz–112z Central and South America 287.8817 –54.2326 316.4 8 18.92

cssz–113a Central and South America 288.3409 –55.0480 307.6 8 11.96

cssz–113b Central and South America 287.8647 –55.4002 307.6 8 5

cssz–113x Central and South America 289.7450 –53.9914 307.6 8 32.83

cssz–113y Central and South America 289.2810 –54.3436 307.6 8 25.88

cssz–113z Central and South America 288.8130 –54.6958 307.6 8 18.92

cssz–114a Central and South America 289.5342 –55.5026 301.5 8 11.96

cssz–114b Central and South America 289.1221 –55.8819 301.5 8 5

cssz–114x Central and South America 290.7472 –54.3647 301.5 8 32.83

cssz–114y Central and South America 290.3467 –54.7440 301.5 8 25.88

cssz–114z Central and South America 289.9424 –55.1233 301.5 8 18.92

cssz–115a Central and South America 290.7682 –55.8485 292.7 8 11.96

cssz–115b Central and South America 290.4608 –56.2588 292.7 8 5

cssz–115x Central and South America 291.6714 –54.6176 292.7 8 32.83

cssz–115y Central and South America 291.3734 –55.0279 292.7 8 25.88

cssz–115z Central and South America 291.0724 –55.4382 292.7 8 18.92
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 63

 120o

E 123o

E 126o

E 129o

E 132o

E 

 0o

 

 4o

N 

 8o

N 

 12o

N 

 16o

N 

 20o

N 

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

a,b

Figure B3: Eastern Philippines Subduction Zone unit sources.
64 Uslu et al.

Table B3: Earthquake parameters for Eastern Philippines Subduction Zone unit sources.

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

epsz–0a Eastern Philippines 128.5264 1.5930 180 44 26.92

epsz–0b Eastern Philippines 128.8496 1.5930 180 26 5

epsz–1a Eastern Philippines 128.5521 2.3289 153.6 44.2 27.62

epsz–1b Eastern Philippines 128.8408 2.4720 153.6 26.9 5

epsz–2a Eastern Philippines 128.1943 3.1508 151.9 45.9 32.44

epsz–2b Eastern Philippines 128.4706 3.2979 151.9 32.8 5.35

epsz–3a Eastern Philippines 127.8899 4.0428 155.2 57.3 40.22

epsz–3b Eastern Philippines 128.1108 4.1445 155.2 42.7 6.31

epsz–4a Eastern Philippines 127.6120 4.8371 146.8 71.4 48.25

epsz–4b Eastern Philippines 127.7324 4.9155 146.8 54.8 7.39

epsz–5a Eastern Philippines 127.3173 5.7040 162.9 79.9 57.4

epsz–5b Eastern Philippines 127.3930 5.7272 162.9 79.4 8.25

epsz–6a Eastern Philippines 126.6488 6.6027 178.9 48.6 45.09

epsz–6b Eastern Philippines 126.9478 6.6085 178.9 48.6 7.58

epsz–7a Eastern Philippines 126.6578 7.4711 175.8 50.7 45.52

epsz–7b Eastern Philippines 126.9439 7.4921 175.8 50.7 6.83

epsz–8a Eastern Philippines 126.6227 8.2456 163.3 56.7 45.6

epsz–8b Eastern Philippines 126.8614 8.3164 163.3 48.9 7.92

epsz–9a Eastern Philippines 126.2751 9.0961 164.1 47 43.59

epsz–9b Eastern Philippines 126.5735 9.1801 164.1 44.9 8.3

epsz–10a Eastern Philippines 125.9798 9.9559 164.5 43.1 42.25

epsz–10b Eastern Philippines 126.3007 10.0438 164.5 43.1 8.09

epsz–11a Eastern Philippines 125.6079 10.6557 155 37.8 38.29

epsz–11b Eastern Philippines 125.9353 10.8059 155 37.8 7.64

epsz–12a Eastern Philippines 125.4697 11.7452 172.1 36 37.01

epsz–12b Eastern Philippines 125.8374 11.7949 172.1 36 7.62

epsz–13a Eastern Philippines 125.2238 12.1670 141.5 32.4 33.87

epsz–13b Eastern Philippines 125.5278 12.4029 141.5 32.4 7.08

epsz–14a Eastern Philippines 124.6476 13.1365 158.2 23 25.92

epsz–14b Eastern Philippines 125.0421 13.2898 158.2 23 6.38

epsz–15a Eastern Philippines 124.3107 13.9453 156.1 24.1 26.51

epsz–15b Eastern Philippines 124.6973 14.1113 156.1 24.1 6.09

epsz–16a Eastern Philippines 123.8998 14.4025 140.3 19.5 21.69

epsz–16b Eastern Philippines 124.2366 14.6728 140.3 19.5 5

epsz–17a Eastern Philippines 123.4604 14.7222 117.6 15.3 18.19

epsz–17b Eastern Philippines 123.6682 15.1062 117.6 15.3 5

epsz–18a Eastern Philippines 123.3946 14.7462 67.4 15 17.94

epsz–18b Eastern Philippines 123.2219 15.1467 67.4 15 5
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 65

 130o

E 140o

E 150o

E 160o

E 170o

E 

 10o

N 

 20o

N 

 30o

N 

 40o

N 

 50o

N 

1

5

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

70

75

10

15

20

60 65

y,z,a,b

Figure B4: Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap Subduction Zone unit sources.
66 Uslu et al.

Table B4: Earthquake parameters for Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap Subduction Zone unit

sources.

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

kisz–1a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 162.4318 55.5017 195 29 26.13

kisz–1b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 163.1000 55.4000 195 25 5

kisz–1y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 161.0884 55.7050 195 29 74.61

kisz–1z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 161.7610 55.6033 195 29 50.37

kisz–2a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 161.9883 54.6784 200 29 26.13

kisz–2b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 162.6247 54.5440 200 25 5

kisz–2y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.7072 54.9471 200 29 74.61

kisz–2z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 161.3488 54.8127 200 29 50.37

kisz–3a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 161.4385 53.8714 204 29 26.13

kisz–3b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 162.0449 53.7116 204 25 5

kisz–3y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.2164 54.1910 204 29 74.61

kisz–3z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.8286 54.0312 204 29 50.37

kisz–4a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.7926 53.1087 210 29 26.13

kisz–4b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 161.3568 52.9123 210 25 5

kisz–4y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 159.6539 53.5015 210 29 74.61

kisz–4z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.2246 53.3051 210 29 50.37

kisz–5a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.0211 52.4113 218 29 26.13

kisz–5b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 160.5258 52.1694 218 25 5

kisz–5y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 159.0005 52.8950 218 29 74.61

kisz–5z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 159.5122 52.6531 218 29 50.37

kisz–6a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 159.1272 51.7034 218 29 26.13

kisz–6b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 159.6241 51.4615 218 25 5

kisz–6y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 158.1228 52.1871 218 29 74.61

kisz–6z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 158.6263 51.9452 218 29 50.37

kisz–7a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 158.2625 50.9549 214 29 26.13

kisz–7b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 158.7771 50.7352 214 25 5

kisz–7y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 157.2236 51.3942 214 29 74.61

kisz–7z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 157.7443 51.1745 214 29 50.37

kisz–8a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 157.4712 50.2459 218 31 27.7

kisz–8b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 157.9433 50.0089 218 27 5

kisz–8y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 156.5176 50.7199 218 31 79.2

kisz–8z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 156.9956 50.4829 218 31 53.45

kisz–9a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 156.6114 49.5583 220 31 27.7

kisz–9b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 157.0638 49.3109 220 27 5

kisz–9y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 155.6974 50.0533 220 31 79.2

kisz–9z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 156.1556 49.8058 220 31 53.45

kisz–10a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 155.7294 48.8804 221 31 27.7

kisz–10b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 156.1690 48.6278 221 27 5

kisz–10y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 154.8413 49.3856 221 31 79.2

kisz–10z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 155.2865 49.1330 221 31 53.45

kisz–11a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 154.8489 48.1821 219 31 27.7

kisz–11b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 155.2955 47.9398 219 27 5

kisz–11y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 153.9472 48.6667 219 31 79.2

kisz–11z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 154.3991 48.4244 219 31 53.45

kisz–12a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 153.9994 47.4729 217 31 27.7

kisz–12b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 154.4701 47.2320 217 27 5

kisz–12y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 153.0856 47.9363 217 31 79.2

kisz–12z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 153.5435 47.7046 217 31 53.45

kisz–13a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 153.2239 46.7564 218 31 27.7

kisz–13b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 153.6648 46.5194 218 27 5

kisz–13y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 152.3343 47.2304 218 31 79.2

kisz–13z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 152.7801 46.9934 218 31 53.45

kisz–14a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 152.3657 46.1514 225 23 24.54

kisz–14b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 152.7855 45.8591 225 23 5

(continued on next page)
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 67

Table B4: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

kisz–14y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 151.5172 46.7362 225 23 63.62

kisz–14z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 151.9426 46.4438 225 23 44.08

kisz–15a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 151.4663 45.5963 233 25 23.73

kisz–15b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 151.8144 45.2712 233 22 5

kisz–15y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 150.7619 46.2465 233 25 65.99

kisz–15z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 151.1151 45.9214 233 25 44.86

kisz–16a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 150.4572 45.0977 237 25 23.73

kisz–16b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 150.7694 44.7563 237 22 5

kisz–16y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 149.8253 45.7804 237 25 65.99

kisz–16z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 150.1422 45.4390 237 25 44.86

kisz–17a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 149.3989 44.6084 237 25 23.73

kisz–17b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 149.7085 44.2670 237 22 5

kisz–17y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 148.7723 45.2912 237 25 65.99

kisz–17z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 149.0865 44.9498 237 25 44.86

kisz–18a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 148.3454 44.0982 235 25 23.73

kisz–18b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 148.6687 43.7647 235 22 5

kisz–18y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.6915 44.7651 235 25 65.99

kisz–18z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 148.0194 44.4316 235 25 44.86

kisz–19a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.3262 43.5619 233 25 23.73

kisz–19b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.6625 43.2368 233 22 5

kisz–19y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.6463 44.2121 233 25 65.99

kisz–19z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.9872 43.8870 233 25 44.86

kisz–20a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.3513 43.0633 237 25 23.73

kisz–20b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.6531 42.7219 237 22 5

kisz–20y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.7410 43.7461 237 25 65.99

kisz–20z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.0470 43.4047 237 25 44.86

kisz–21a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.3331 42.5948 239 25 23.73

kisz–21b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.6163 42.2459 239 22 5

kisz–21y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.7603 43.2927 239 25 65.99

kisz–21z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.0475 42.9438 239 25 44.86

kisz–22a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.3041 42.1631 242 25 23.73

kisz–22b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.5605 41.8037 242 22 5

kisz–22y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.7854 42.8819 242 25 65.99

kisz–22z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.0455 42.5225 242 25 44.86

kisz–23a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.2863 41.3335 202 21 21.28

kisz–23b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.8028 41.1764 202 19 5

kisz–23v Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.6816 42.1189 202 21 110.9

kisz–23w Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.2050 41.9618 202 21 92.95

kisz–23x Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.7273 41.8047 202 21 75.04

kisz–23y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.2482 41.6476 202 21 57.12

kisz–23z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7679 41.4905 202 21 39.2

kisz–24a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.9795 40.3490 185 21 21.28

kisz–24b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.5273 40.3125 185 19 5

kisz–24x Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.3339 40.4587 185 21 75.04

kisz–24y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.8827 40.4221 185 21 57.12

kisz–24z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.4312 40.3856 185 21 39.2

kisz–25a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.8839 39.4541 185 21 21.28

kisz–25b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.4246 39.4176 185 19 5

kisz–25y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.8012 39.5272 185 21 57.12

kisz–25z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.3426 39.4907 185 21 39.2

kisz–26a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7622 38.5837 188 21 21.28

kisz–26b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.2930 38.5254 188 19 5

kisz–26x Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.1667 38.7588 188 21 75.04

kisz–26y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.6990 38.7004 188 21 57.12

kisz–26z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.2308 38.6421 188 21 39.2

(continued on next page)
68 Uslu et al.

Table B4: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

kisz–27a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.5320 37.7830 198 21 21.28

kisz–27b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.0357 37.6534 198 19 5

kisz–27x Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.0142 38.1717 198 21 75.04

kisz–27y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.5210 38.0421 198 21 57.12

kisz–27z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.0269 37.9126 198 21 39.2

kisz–28a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.1315 37.0265 208 21 21.28

kisz–28b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.5941 36.8297 208 19 5

kisz–28x Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.7348 37.6171 208 21 75.04

kisz–28y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.2016 37.4202 208 21 57.12

kisz–28z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.6671 37.2234 208 21 39.2

kisz–29a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.5970 36.2640 211 21 21.28

kisz–29b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.0416 36.0481 211 19 5

kisz–29y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.7029 36.6960 211 21 57.12

kisz–29z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.1506 36.4800 211 21 39.2

kisz–30a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.0553 35.4332 205 21 21.28

kisz–30b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.5207 35.2560 205 19 5

kisz–30y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.1204 35.7876 205 21 57.12

kisz–30z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.5883 35.6104 205 21 39.2

kisz–31a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.6956 34.4789 190 22 22.1

kisz–31b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.1927 34.4066 190 20 5

kisz–31v Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 138.2025 34.8405 190 22 115.8

kisz–31w Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 138.7021 34.7682 190 22 97.02

kisz–31x Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 139.2012 34.6958 190 22 78.29

kisz–31y Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 139.6997 34.6235 190 22 59.56

kisz–31z Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.1979 34.5512 190 22 40.83

kisz–32a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.0551 33.0921 180 32 23.48

kisz–32b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.5098 33.0921 180 21.69 5

kisz–33a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.0924 32.1047 173.8 27.65 20.67

kisz–33b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.5596 32.1473 173.8 18.27 5

kisz–34a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.1869 31.1851 172.1 25 18.26

kisz–34b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.6585 31.2408 172.1 15.38 5

kisz–35a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.4154 30.1707 163 25 17.12

kisz–35b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.8662 30.2899 163 14.03 5

kisz–36a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.6261 29.2740 161.7 25.73 18.71

kisz–36b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.0670 29.4012 161.7 15.91 5

kisz–37a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.0120 28.3322 154.7 20 14.54

kisz–37b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.4463 28.5124 154.7 11 5

kisz–38a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.2254 27.6946 170.3 20 14.54

kisz–38b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.6955 27.7659 170.3 11 5

kisz–39a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.3085 26.9127 177.2 24.23 17.42

kisz–39b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7674 26.9325 177.2 14.38 5

kisz–40a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.2673 26.1923 189.4 26.49 22.26

kisz–40b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7090 26.1264 189.4 20.2 5

kisz–41a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.1595 25.0729 173.7 22.07 19.08

kisz–41b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.6165 25.1184 173.7 16.36 5

kisz–42a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7641 23.8947 143.5 21.54 18.4

kisz–42b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.1321 24.1432 143.5 15.54 5

kisz–43a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.5281 23.0423 129.2 23.02 18.77

kisz–43b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.8128 23.3626 129.2 15.99 5

kisz–44a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.2230 22.5240 134.6 28.24 18.56

kisz–44b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.5246 22.8056 134.6 15.74 5

kisz–45a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.0895 21.8866 125.8 36.73 22.79

kisz–45b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.3171 22.1785 125.8 20.84 5

kisz–46a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.6972 21.3783 135.9 30.75 20.63

kisz–46b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.9954 21.6469 135.9 18.22 5

(continued on next page)
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 69

Table B4: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

kisz–47a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.0406 20.9341 160.1 29.87 19.62

kisz–47b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.4330 21.0669 160.1 17 5

kisz–48a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.3836 20.0690 158 32.75 19.68

kisz–48b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.7567 20.2108 158 17.07 5

kisz–49a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.6689 19.3123 164.5 25.07 21.41

kisz–49b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.0846 19.4212 164.5 19.16 5

kisz–50a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.9297 18.5663 172.1 22 22.1

kisz–50b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.3650 18.6238 172.1 20 5

kisz–51a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.9495 17.7148 175.1 22.06 22.04

kisz–51b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.3850 17.7503 175.1 19.93 5

kisz–52a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.9447 16.8869 180 25.51 18.61

kisz–52b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.3683 16.8869 180 15.79 5

kisz–53a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.8626 16.0669 185.2 27.39 18.41

kisz–53b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.2758 16.0309 185.2 15.56 5

kisz–54a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.7068 15.3883 199.1 28.12 20.91

kisz–54b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 147.0949 15.2590 199.1 18.56 5

kisz–55a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.4717 14.6025 204.3 29.6 26.27

kisz–55b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.8391 14.4415 204.3 25.18 5

kisz–56a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.1678 13.9485 217.4 32.04 26.79

kisz–56b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 146.4789 13.7170 217.4 25.84 5

kisz–57a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.6515 13.5576 235.8 37 24.54

kisz–57b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.8586 13.2609 235.8 23 5

kisz–58a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.9648 12.9990 237.8 37.72 24.54

kisz–58b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 145.1589 12.6984 237.8 23 5

kisz–59a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.1799 12.6914 242.9 34.33 22.31

kisz–59b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 144.3531 12.3613 242.9 20.25 5

kisz–60a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.3687 12.3280 244.9 30.9 20.62

kisz–60b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 143.5355 11.9788 244.9 18.2 5

kisz–61a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7051 12.1507 261.8 35.41 25.51

kisz–61b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 142.7582 11.7883 261.8 24.22 5

kisz–62a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.6301 11.8447 245.7 39.86 34.35

kisz–62b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 141.7750 11.5305 245.7 35.94 5

kisz–63a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.8923 11.5740 256.2 42 38.46

kisz–63b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.9735 11.2498 256.2 42 5

kisz–64a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.1387 11.6028 269.6 42.48 38.77

kisz–64b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 140.1410 11.2716 269.6 42.48 5

kisz–65a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 139.4595 11.5883 288.7 44.16 39.83

kisz–65b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 139.3541 11.2831 288.7 44.16 5

kisz–66a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 138.1823 11.2648 193.1 45 40.36

kisz–66b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 138.4977 11.1929 193.1 45 5

kisz–67a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 137.9923 10.3398 189.8 45 40.36

kisz–67b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 138.3104 10.2856 189.8 45 5

kisz–68a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 137.7607 9.6136 201.7 45 40.36

kisz–68b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 138.0599 9.4963 201.7 45 5

kisz–69a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 137.4537 8.8996 213.5 45 40.36

kisz–69b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 137.7215 8.7241 213.5 45 5

kisz–70a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 137.0191 8.2872 226.5 45 40.36

kisz–70b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 137.2400 8.0569 226.5 45 5

kisz–71a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 136.3863 7.9078 263.9 45 40.36

kisz–71b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 136.4202 7.5920 263.9 45 5

kisz–72a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 135.6310 7.9130 276.9 45 40.36

kisz–72b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 135.5926 7.5977 276.9 45 5

kisz–73a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 134.3296 7.4541 224 45 40.36

kisz–73b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 134.5600 7.2335 224 45 5

kisz–74a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 133.7125 6.8621 228.1 45 40.36

(continued on next page)
70 Uslu et al.

Table B4: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

kisz–74b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 133.9263 6.6258 228.1 45 5

kisz–75a Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 133.0224 6.1221 217.7 45 40.36

kisz–75b Kamchatka-Kuril-Japan-Izu-Mariana-Yap 133.2751 5.9280 217.7 45 5
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 71

 135o

E 140o

E 145o

E 150o

E 155o

E 

 9o

S 

 6o

S 

 3o

S 

 0o

 

 3o

N 

1

3

5

7

9 11 13

15

17

,

a,b

Figure B5: Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary Subduction Zone unit sources.
72 Uslu et al.

Table B5: Earthquake parameters for Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary Subduction Zone unit

sources.

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

mosz–1a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 154.0737 –4.8960 140.2 15 15.88

mosz–1b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 154.4082 –4.6185 140.2 15 5

mosz–2a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 153.5589 –4.1575 140.2 15 15.91

mosz–2b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 153.8931 –3.8800 140.2 15 5.35

mosz–3a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 153.0151 –3.3716 143.9 15 16.64

mosz–3b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 153.3662 –3.1160 143.9 15 6.31

mosz–4a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 152.4667 –3.0241 127.7 15 17.32

mosz–4b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 152.7321 –2.6806 127.7 15 7.39

mosz–5a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 151.8447 –2.7066 114.3 15 17.57

mosz–5b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 152.0235 –2.3112 114.3 15 8.25

mosz–6a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 151.0679 –2.2550 115 15 17.66

mosz–6b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 151.2513 –1.8618 115 15 7.58

mosz–7a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 150.3210 –2.0236 107.2 15 17.73

mosz–7b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 150.4493 –1.6092 107.2 15 6.83

mosz–8a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 149.3226 –1.6666 117.8 15 17.83

mosz–8b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 149.5251 –1.2829 117.8 15 7.92

mosz–9a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 148.5865 –1.3017 112.7 15 17.84

mosz–9b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 148.7540 –0.9015 112.7 15 8.3

mosz–10a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 147.7760 –1.1560 108 15 17.78

mosz–10b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 147.9102 –0.7434 108 15 8.09

mosz–11a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 146.9596 –1.1226 102.5 15 17.54

mosz–11b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 147.0531 –0.6990 102.5 15 7.64

mosz–12a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 146.2858 –1.1820 87.48 15 17.29

mosz–12b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 146.2667 –0.7486 87.48 15 7.62

mosz–13a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 145.4540 –1.3214 83.75 15 17.34

mosz–13b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 145.4068 –0.8901 83.75 15 7.08

mosz–14a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 144.7151 –1.5346 75.09 15 17.21

mosz–14b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 144.6035 –1.1154 75.09 15 6.38

mosz–15a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 143.9394 –1.8278 70.43 15 16.52

mosz–15b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 143.7940 –1.4190 70.43 15 6.09

mosz–16a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 143.4850 –2.2118 50.79 15 15.86

mosz–16b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 143.2106 –1.8756 50.79 15 5

mosz–17a Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 143.1655 –2.7580 33 15 16.64

mosz–17b Manus–Oceanic Convergent Boundary 142.8013 –2.5217 33 15 5
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 73

 130o

E 135o

E 140o

E 145o

E 150o

E 

 9o

S 

 6o

S 

 3o

S 

 0o

 

 3o

N 

1

3

5

7

9

15 13 11

Figure B6: New Guinea Subduction Zone unit sources.
74 Uslu et al.

Table B6: Earthquake parameters for New Guinea Subduction Zone unit sources.

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

ngsz–1a New Guinea 143.6063 –4.3804 120 29 25.64

ngsz–1b New Guinea 143.8032 –4.0402 120 29 1.4

ngsz–2a New Guinea 142.9310 –3.9263 114 27.63 20.1

ngsz–2b New Guinea 143.0932 –3.5628 114 21.72 1.6

ngsz–3a New Guinea 142.1076 –3.5632 114 20.06 18.73

ngsz–3b New Guinea 142.2795 –3.1778 114 15.94 5

ngsz–4a New Guinea 141.2681 –3.2376 114 21 17.76

ngsz–4b New Guinea 141.4389 –2.8545 114 14.79 5

ngsz–5a New Guinea 140.4592 –2.8429 114 21.26 16.14

ngsz–5b New Guinea 140.6296 –2.4605 114 12.87 5

ngsz–6a New Guinea 139.6288 –2.4960 114 22.72 15.4

ngsz–6b New Guinea 139.7974 –2.1175 114 12 5

ngsz–7a New Guinea 138.8074 –2.1312 114 21.39 15.4

ngsz–7b New Guinea 138.9776 –1.7491 114 12 5

ngsz–8a New Guinea 138.0185 –1.7353 113.1 18.79 15.14

ngsz–8b New Guinea 138.1853 –1.3441 113.1 11.7 5

ngsz–9a New Guinea 137.1805 –1.5037 111 15.24 13.23

ngsz–9b New Guinea 137.3358 –1.0991 111 9.47 5

ngsz–10a New Guinea 136.3418 –1.1774 111 13.51 11.09

ngsz–10b New Guinea 136.4983 –0.7697 111 7 5

ngsz–11a New Guinea 135.4984 –0.8641 111 11.38 12.49

ngsz–11b New Guinea 135.6562 –0.4530 111 8.62 5

ngsz–12a New Guinea 134.6759 –0.5216 110.5 10 13.68

ngsz–12b New Guinea 134.8307 –0.1072 110.5 10 5

ngsz–13a New Guinea 133.3065 –1.0298 99.5 10 13.68

ngsz–13b New Guinea 133.3795 –0.5935 99.5 10 5

ngsz–14a New Guinea 132.4048 –0.8816 99.5 10 13.68

ngsz–14b New Guinea 132.4778 –0.4453 99.5 10 5

ngsz–15a New Guinea 131.5141 –0.7353 99.5 10 13.68

ngsz–15b New Guinea 131.5871 –0.2990 99.5 10 5
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 75

 175o

E 180o

W 175o

W 170o

W 

 42o

S 

 36o

S 

 30o

S 

 24o

S 

 18o

S 

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1

a,

b

Figure B7: New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga Subduction Zone unit sources.
76 Uslu et al.

Table B7: Earthquake parameters for New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga Subduction Zone unit sources.

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

ntsz–1a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 174.0985 –41.3951 258.6 24 25.34

ntsz–1b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 174.2076 –41.7973 258.6 24 5

ntsz–2a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 175.3289 –41.2592 260.6 29.38 23.17

ntsz–2b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 175.4142 –41.6454 260.6 21.31 5

ntsz–3a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 176.2855 –40.9950 250.7 29.54 21.74

ntsz–3b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 176.4580 –41.3637 250.7 19.56 5

ntsz–4a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 177.0023 –40.7679 229.4 24.43 18.87

ntsz–4b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 177.3552 –41.0785 229.4 16.1 5

ntsz–5a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 177.4114 –40.2396 210 18.8 19.29

ntsz–5b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 177.8951 –40.4525 210 16.61 5

ntsz–6a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 177.8036 –39.6085 196.7 18.17 15.8

ntsz–6b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 178.3352 –39.7310 196.7 12.48 5

ntsz–7a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 178.1676 –38.7480 197 28.1 17.85

ntsz–7b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 178.6541 –38.8640 197 14.89 5

ntsz–8a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 178.6263 –37.8501 201.4 31.47 18.78

ntsz–8b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 179.0788 –37.9899 201.4 16 5

ntsz–9a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 178.9833 –36.9770 202.2 29.58 20.02

ntsz–9b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 179.4369 –37.1245 202.2 17.48 5

ntsz–10a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 179.5534 –36.0655 210.6 32.1 20.72

ntsz–10b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 179.9595 –36.2593 210.6 18.32 5

ntsz–11a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 179.9267 –35.3538 201.7 25 16.09

ntsz–11b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 180.3915 –35.5040 201.7 12.81 5

ntsz–12a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 180.4433 –34.5759 201.2 25 15.46

ntsz–12b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 180.9051 –34.7230 201.2 12.08 5

ntsz–13a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 180.7990 –33.7707 199.8 25.87 19.06

ntsz–13b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 181.2573 –33.9073 199.8 16.33 5

ntsz–14a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 181.2828 –32.9288 202.4 31.28 22.73

ntsz–14b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 181.7063 –33.0751 202.4 20.77 5

ntsz–15a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 181.4918 –32.0035 205.4 32.33 22.64

ntsz–15b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 181.8967 –32.1665 205.4 20.66 5

ntsz–16a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 181.9781 –31.2535 205.5 34.29 23.59

ntsz–16b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 182.3706 –31.4131 205.5 21.83 5

ntsz–17a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 182.4819 –30.3859 210.3 37.6 25.58

ntsz–17b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 182.8387 –30.5655 210.3 24.3 5

ntsz–18a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 182.8176 –29.6545 201.6 37.65 26.13

ntsz–18b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 183.1985 –29.7856 201.6 25 5

ntsz–19a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 183.0622 –28.8739 195.7 34.41 26.13

ntsz–19b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 183.4700 –28.9742 195.7 25 5

ntsz–20a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 183.2724 –28.0967 188.8 38 26.13

ntsz–20b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 183.6691 –28.1508 188.8 25 5

ntsz–21a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 183.5747 –27.1402 197.1 32.29 24.83

ntsz–21b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 183.9829 –27.2518 197.1 23.37 5

ntsz–22a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 183.6608 –26.4975 180 29.56 18.63

ntsz–22b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 184.0974 –26.4975 180 15.82 5

ntsz–23a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 183.7599 –25.5371 185.8 32.42 20.56

ntsz–23b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 184.1781 –25.5752 185.8 18.13 5

ntsz–24a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 183.9139 –24.6201 188.2 33.31 23.73

ntsz–24b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 184.3228 –24.6734 188.2 22 5

ntsz–25a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 184.1266 –23.5922 198.5 29.34 19.64

ntsz–25b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 184.5322 –23.7163 198.5 17.03 5

ntsz–26a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 184.6613 –22.6460 211.7 30.26 19.43

ntsz–26b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 185.0196 –22.8497 211.7 16.78 5

ntsz–27a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 185.0879 –21.9139 207.9 31.73 20.67

ntsz–27b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 185.4522 –22.0928 207.9 18.27 5

ntsz–28a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 185.4037 –21.1758 200.5 32.44 21.76

(continued on next page)
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 77

Table B7: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

ntsz–28b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 185.7849 –21.3084 200.5 19.58 5

ntsz–29a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 185.8087 –20.2629 206.4 32.47 20.4

ntsz–29b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 186.1710 –20.4312 206.4 17.94 5

ntsz–30a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 186.1499 –19.5087 200.9 32.98 22.46

ntsz–30b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 186.5236 –19.6432 200.9 20.44 5

ntsz–31a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 186.3538 –18.7332 193.9 34.41 21.19

ntsz–31b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 186.7339 –18.8221 193.9 18.89 5

ntsz–32a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 186.5949 –17.8587 194.1 30 19.12

ntsz–32b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 186.9914 –17.9536 194.1 16.4 5

ntsz–33a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 186.8172 –17.0581 190 33.15 23.34

ntsz–33b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 187.2047 –17.1237 190 21.52 5

ntsz–34a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 186.7814 –16.2598 182.1 15 13.41

ntsz–34b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 187.2330 –16.2759 182.1 9.68 5

ntsz–35a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 186.8000 –15.8563 149.8 15 12.17

ntsz–35b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 187.1896 –15.6384 149.8 8.24 5

ntsz–36a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 186.5406 –15.3862 123.9 40.44 36.72

ntsz–36b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 186.7381 –15.1025 123.9 39.38 5

ntsz–37a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 185.9883 –14.9861 102 68.94 30.99

ntsz–37b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 186.0229 –14.8282 102 31.32 5

ntsz–38a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 185.2067 –14.8259 88.4 80 26.13

ntsz–38b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 185.2044 –14.7479 88.4 25 5

ntsz–39a New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 184.3412 –14.9409 82.55 80 26.13

ntsz–39b New Zealand–Keradec–Tonga 184.3307 –14.8636 82.55 25 5

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 79

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Figure B8: New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu Zone unit sources.
80 Uslu et al.

Table B8: Earthquake parameters for New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu Subduction Zone unit sources.

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

nvsz–1a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 148.6217 –6.4616 243.2 32.34 15.69

nvsz–1b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 148.7943 –6.8002 234.2 12.34 5

nvsz–2a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 149.7218 –6.1459 260.1 35.1 16.36

nvsz–2b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 149.7856 –6.5079 260.1 13.13 5

nvsz–3a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 150.4075 –5.9659 245.7 42.35 18.59

nvsz–3b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 150.5450 –6.2684 245.7 15.77 5

nvsz–4a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 151.1095 –5.5820 238.2 42.41 23.63

nvsz–4b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 151.2851 –5.8639 238.2 21.88 5

nvsz–5a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 152.0205 –5.1305 247.7 49.22 32.39

nvsz–5b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 152.1322 –5.4020 247.7 33.22 5

nvsz–6a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 153.3450 –5.1558 288.6 53.53 33.59

nvsz–6b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 153.2595 –5.4089 288.6 34.87 5

nvsz–7a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 154.3814 –5.6308 308.3 39.72 19.18

nvsz–7b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 154.1658 –5.9017 308.3 16.48 5

nvsz–8a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 155.1097 –6.3511 317.2 45.33 22.92

nvsz–8b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 154.8764 –6.5656 317.2 21 5

nvsz–9a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 155.5027 –6.7430 290.5 48.75 22.92

nvsz–9b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 155.3981 –7.0204 290.5 21 5

nvsz–10a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 156.4742 –7.2515 305.9 36.88 27.62

nvsz–10b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 156.2619 –7.5427 305.9 26.9 5

nvsz–11a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 157.0830 –7.8830 305.4 32.97 29.72

nvsz–11b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 156.8627 –8.1903 305.4 29.63 5

nvsz–12a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 157.6537 –8.1483 297.9 37.53 28.57

nvsz–12b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 157.4850 –8.4630 297.9 28.13 5

nvsz–13a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 158.5089 –8.5953 302.7 33.62 23.02

nvsz–13b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 158.3042 –8.9099 302.7 21.12 5

nvsz–14a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 159.1872 –8.9516 293.3 38.44 34.06

nvsz–14b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 159.0461 –9.2747 293.3 35.54 5

nvsz–15a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 159.9736 –9.5993 302.8 46.69 41.38

nvsz–15b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 159.8044 –9.8584 302.8 46.69 5

nvsz–16a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 160.7343 –10.0574 301 46.05 41

nvsz–16b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 160.5712 –10.3246 301 46.05 5

nvsz–17a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 161.4562 –10.5241 298.4 40.12 37.22

nvsz–17b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 161.2900 –10.8263 298.4 40.12 5

nvsz–18a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 162.0467 –10.6823 274.1 40.33 29.03

nvsz–18b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 162.0219 –11.0238 274.1 28.72 5

nvsz–19a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 162.7818 –10.5645 261.3 34.25 24.14

nvsz–19b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 162.8392 –10.9315 261.3 22.51 5

nvsz–20a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 163.7222 –10.5014 262.9 50.35 26.3

nvsz–20b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 163.7581 –10.7858 262.9 25.22 5

nvsz–21a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 164.9445 –10.4183 287.9 40.31 23.3

nvsz–21b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 164.8374 –10.7442 287.9 21.47 5

nvsz–22a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.0261 –11.1069 317.1 42.39 20.78

nvsz–22b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 165.7783 –11.3328 317.1 18.4 5

nvsz–23a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.5179 –12.2260 342.4 47.95 22.43

nvsz–23b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.2244 –12.3171 342.4 20.4 5

nvsz–24a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.7236 –13.1065 342.6 47.13 28.52

nvsz–24b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.4241 –13.1979 342.6 28.06 5

nvsz–25a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.8914 –14.0785 350.3 54.1 31.16

nvsz–25b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.6237 –14.1230 350.3 31.55 5

nvsz–26a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.9200 –15.1450 365.6 50.46 29.05

nvsz–26b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.6252 –15.1170 365.6 28.75 5

nvsz–27a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 167.0053 –15.6308 334.2 44.74 25.46

nvsz–27b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 166.7068 –15.7695 334.2 24.15 5

nvsz–28a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 167.4074 –16.3455 327.5 41.53 22.44

(continued on next page)
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 81

Table B8: (continued)

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

nvsz–28b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 167.1117 –16.5264 327.5 20.42 5

nvsz–29a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 167.9145 –17.2807 341.2 49.1 24.12

nvsz–29b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 167.6229 –17.3757 341.2 22.48 5

nvsz–30a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 168.2220 –18.2353 348.6 44.19 23.99

nvsz–30b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 167.8895 –18.2991 348.6 22.32 5

nvsz–31a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 168.5022 –19.0510 345.6 42.2 22.26

nvsz–31b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 168.1611 –19.1338 345.6 20.2 5

nvsz–32a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 168.8775 –19.6724 331.1 42.03 21.68

nvsz–32b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 168.5671 –19.8338 331.1 19.49 5

nvsz–33a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 169.3422 –20.4892 332.9 40.25 22.4

nvsz–33b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 169.0161 –20.6453 332.9 20.37 5

nvsz–34a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 169.8304 –21.2121 329.1 39 22.73

nvsz–34b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 169.5086 –21.3911 329.1 20.77 5

nvsz–35a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 170.3119 –21.6945 311.9 39 22.13

nvsz–35b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 170.0606 –21.9543 311.9 20.03 5

nvsz–36a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 170.9487 –22.1585 300.4 39.42 23.5

nvsz–36b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 170.7585 –22.4577 300.4 21.71 5

nvsz–37a New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 171.6335 –22.3087 281.3 30 22.1

nvsz–37b New Britain–Solomons–Vanuatu 171.5512 –22.6902 281.3 20 5

PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 83

 120o

E 125o

E 130o

E 135o

E 140o

E 

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N 

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Figure B9: Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai Zone unit sources.
84 Uslu et al.

Table B9: Earthquake parameters for Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai Subduction Zone unit sources.

Segment Description Longitude (◦E) Latitude (◦N) Strike (◦) Dip (◦) Depth (km)

rnsz–1a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 122.6672 23.6696 262 14 11.88

rnsz–1b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 122.7332 23.2380 262 10 3.2

rnsz–2a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 123.5939 23.7929 259.9 18.11 12.28

rnsz–2b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 123.6751 23.3725 259.9 10 3.6

rnsz–3a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 124.4604 23.9777 254.6 19.27 14.65

rnsz–3b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 124.5830 23.5689 254.6 12.18 4.1

rnsz–4a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 125.2720 24.2102 246.8 18 20.38

rnsz–4b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 125.4563 23.8177 246.8 16 6.6

rnsz–5a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 125.9465 24.5085 233.6 18 20.21

rnsz–5b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 126.2241 24.1645 233.6 16 6.43

rnsz–6a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 126.6349 25.0402 228.7 17.16 19.55

rnsz–6b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 126.9465 24.7176 228.7 15.16 6.47

rnsz–7a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 127.2867 25.6343 224 15.85 17.98

rnsz–7b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 127.6303 25.3339 224 13.56 6.26

rnsz–8a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 128.0725 26.3146 229.7 14.55 14.31

rnsz–8b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 128.3854 25.9831 229.7 9.64 5.94

rnsz–9a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 128.6642 26.8177 219.2 15.4 12.62

rnsz–9b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 129.0391 26.5438 219.2 8 5.66

rnsz–10a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 129.2286 27.4879 215.2 17 12.55

rnsz–10b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 129.6233 27.2402 215.2 8.16 5.45

rnsz–11a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 129.6169 28.0741 201.3 17 12.91

rnsz–11b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 130.0698 27.9181 201.3 8.8 5.26

rnsz–12a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 130.6175 29.0900 236.7 16.42 13.05

rnsz–12b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 130.8873 28.7299 236.7 9.57 4.74

rnsz–13a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 130.7223 29.3465 195.2 20.25 15.89

rnsz–13b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 131.1884 29.2362 195.2 12.98 4.66

rnsz–14a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 131.3467 30.3899 215.1 22.16 19.73

rnsz–14b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 131.7402 30.1507 215.1 17.48 4.71

rnsz–15a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 131.9149 31.1450 216 15.11 16.12

rnsz–15b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 132.3235 30.8899 216 13.46 4.48

rnsz–16a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 132.5628 31.9468 220.9 10.81 10.88

rnsz–16b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 132.9546 31.6579 220.9 7.19 4.62

rnsz–17a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 133.6125 32.6956 239 10.14 12.01

rnsz–17b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 133.8823 32.3168 239 8.41 4.7

rnsz–18a Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 134.6416 33.1488 244.7 10.99 14.21

rnsz–18b Ryukyu–Kyushu–Nankai 134.8656 32.7502 244.5 10.97 4.7
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 85

Glossary

Arrival Time The time when the first tsunami wave is observed at a particular location, typically given in local and/or universal time but also commonly

noted in minutes or hours relative to time of earthquake.

Bathymetry The measurement of water depth of an undisturbed body of water.

Cascadia Subduction Zone Fault that extends from Cape Mendocino in Northern California northward to mid-Vancouver Island Canada. The fault marks

the convergence boundary where the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate is being subducted under the margin of the North America plate.

Current Speed The scalar rate of water motion measured as distance/time.

Current Velocity Movement of water expressed as a vector quantity. Velocity is

the distance of movement per time coupled with direction of motion.

Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART®) Tsunami detection and transmission system that measures the pressure of an overlying column of water and detects the passage of a tsunami

Digital Elevation Model (DEM) A digital representation of bathymetry or topography based on regional survey data or satellite imagery. Data are arrays of

regularly spaced elevations referenced to map projection of geographic coordinate system.

Epicenter The point on the surface of the earth that is directly above the focus

of an earthquake.

Far-field Region outside of the source of a tsunami where no direct observations of the tsunami-generating event are evident, except for the tsunami waves

themselves.

Focus The point beneath the surface of the earth where a rupture or energy

release occurs due to a build up of stress or the movement of earth’s tectonic

plates relative to one another.

Inundation The horizontal inland extent of land that a tsunami penetrates,

generally measured perpendicularly to a shoreline.
86 Uslu et al.

Marigram Tide gauge recording of wave level as a function of time at a particular location. The instrument used for recording is termed marigraph.

Moment Magnitude (MW) The magnitude of an earthquake on a logarithmic

scale in terms of the energy released. Moment magnitude is based on the size

and characteristics of a fault rupture as determined from long-period seismic

waves.

Method of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST) A suite of numerical simulation codes

used to provide estimates of the three processes of tsunami evolution: tsunami

generation, propagation, and inundation.

Near-field Region of primary tsunami impact near the source of the tsunami.

The near-field is defined as the region where non-tsunami effects of the

tsunami-generating event have been observed, such as earth shaking from the

earthquake, visible or measured ground deformation, or other direct (nontsunami) evidences of the source of the tsunami wave.

Propagation database A basin-wide database of pre-computed water elevations and flow velocities at uniformly spaced grid points throughout the world

Oceans. Values are computed from tsunamis generated by earthquakes with a

fault rupture at any one of discrete 100 × 50 km unit sources along worldwide

subduction zones.

Runup or Run-up Vertical difference between the elevation of tsunami inundation and the sea level at the time of a tsunami. Runup is the elevation of the

highest point of land inundated by a tsunami as measured relative to a stated

datum, such as mean sea level.

Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) A tsunami forecast

system that integrates tsunami observations in the deep-ocean with numerical

models to provide an estimate of tsunami wave arrival, amplitude, at specific

coastal locations while a tsunami propagates across an ocean basin.

Subduction zone A submarine region of the earth’s crust at which two or more

tectonic plates converge to cause one plate to sink under another, overriding

plate. Subduction zones are regions of high seismic activity.

Synthetic event Hypothetical events based on computer simulations or theory

of possible or even likely future scenarios.

Tidal wave Term frequently used incorrectly as a synonym for tsunami. A tsunami is unrelated to the predictable periodic rise and fall of sea level due to the

gravitational attractions of the moon and sun: the tide.

Tide The predictable rise and fall of a body of water (ocean, sea, bay, etc.) due

to the gravitational attractions of the moon and sun.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series, Vol. 3 — San Francisco, California 87

Tide Gauge An instrument for measuring the rise and fall of a column of water

over time at a particular location.

Tele-tsunami or distant tsunami Most commonly, a tsunami originating from

a source greater than 1000 km away from a particular location. In some contexts, a tele-tsunami is one that propagates through deep-ocean before reaching a particular location without regard to distance separation.

Travel time The time it takes for a tsunami to travel from the generating source

to a particular location.

Tsunameter An oceanographic instrument used to detect and measure tsunamis in the deep-ocean. Tsunami measurements are typically transmitted

acoustically to a surface buoy that in turn relays them in real-time to ground

stations via satellite.

Tsunami A Japanese term that literally translates to “harbor wave.” Tsunamis

are a series of long period shallow water waves that are generated by the sudden displacement of water due to subsea disturbances such as earthquakes,

submarine landslides, or volcanic eruptions. Less commonly, meteoric impact

to the ocean or meteorological forcing can generate a tsunami.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment A systematic investigation of seismically active

regions of the world oceans to determine their potential tsunami impact at a

particular location. Numerical models are typically used to characterize tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation and to quantify the risk posed

a particular community from tsunamis generated in each source region investigated.

Tsunami Magnitude A number that characterizes the strength of a tsunami

based on the tsunami wave amplitudes. Several different tsunami magnitude

determination methods have been proposed.

Tsunami Propagation The directional movement of a tsunami wave outward

from the source of generation. The speed at which a tsunami propagates depends on the depth of the water column in which the wave is traveling. Tsunamis travel at a speed of 700 km/hr (450 mi/hr) over the average depth of 4000

m in the open deep Pacific Ocean.

Tsunami Source Abrupt deformation of the ocean surface that generates series

of long gravity waves propagating outward from the source area. The deformation is typically produced by underwater earthquakes, landslide, volcano eruptions or other catastrophic geophysical processes.

Wave amplitude The maximum vertical rise or drop of a column of water as

measured from wave crest (peak) or trough to a defined mean water level state.
88 Uslu et al.

Wave crest or peak The highest part of a wave or maximum rise above a defined mean water level state, such as mean lower low water.

Wave height The vertical difference between the highest part of a specific wave

(crest) and it’s corresponding lowest point (trough).

Wavelength The horizontal distance between two successive wave crests or

troughs.

Wave period The length of time between the passage of two successive wave

crests or troughs as measured at a fixed location.

Wave trough The lowest part of a wave or the maximum drop below a defined

mean water level state, such as mean lower low water.
PMEL Tsunami Forecast Series Locations

Adak, AK

Apra Harbor, Guam — Vol. 9

Arecibo, PR

Arena Cove, CA

Atka, AK

Atlantic City, NJ

Bar Harbor, ME

Cape Hatteras, NC

Chignik, AK

Cordova, AK

Craig, AK

Crescent City, CA — Vol. 2

Daytona Beach, FL

Dutch Harbor, AK — Vol. 10

Elfin Cove, AK

Eureka, CA

Fajardo, PR

Florence, OR

Garibaldi, OR

Haleiwa, HI

Hilo, HI — Vol. 1

Homer, AK

Honolulu, HI

Jacksonville Beach, FL

Kahului, HI — Vol. 7

Kailua-Kona, HI

Kawaihae, HI

Keauhou, HI

Key West, FL

King Cove, AK

Kodiak, AK — Vol. 4

Lahaina, HI

La Push, WA

Los Angeles, CA — Vol. 8

Mayaguez, PR

Montauk, NY

Monterey, CA

Morehead City, NC

Myrtle Beach, SC

Nantucket, MA

Nawiliwili, HI

Neah Bay, WA

Newport, OR — Vol. 5

Nikolski, AK

Ocean City, MD

Pago Pago, American Samoa

Palm Beach, FL

Pearl Harbor, HI

Point Reyes, CA

Ponce, PR

Port Alexander, AK

Port Angeles, WA

Port Orford, OR

Port San Luis, CA

Port Townsend, WA

Portland, ME

Portsmouth, NH

San Diego, CA

San Francisco, CA — Vol. 3

San Juan, PR

Sand Island, Midway Islands

Sand Point, AK

Santa Barbara, CA

Santa Monica, CA

Savannah, GA

Seaside, OR — Vol. 6

Seward, AK

Shemya, AK

Sitka, AK

Toke Point, WA

U.S. Virgin Islands

Virginia Beach, VA

Wake Island, U.S. Territory

Westport, WA

Yakutat, AK
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Atka

Adak

Craig

Shemya

Eureka

Cordova

Chignik

La Push

Nikolski

Florence

Elfin Cove

Arena Cove

Sand Point

Point Reyes

Port Orford

Santa Monica

Westport

Port Townsend

Midway Island

Santa Barbara

Port Alexander

Monterey Harbor

Homer

Sitka Kodiak

Yakutat

Seaside

Newport

King Cove

San Diego

Dutch Harbor

Port San Luis

Crescent City

Seward

Neah Bay

Garibaldi

Los Angeles

Toke Point

Port Angeles

San Francisco

120°W

120°W

130°W

130°W

140°W

140°W

150°W

150°W

160°W

160°W

170°W

170°W

180°

180°

170°E

170°E

60°N 60°N

50°N 50°N

40°N 40°N

30°N 30°N

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Haleiwa

Kahului

Kawaihae

Honolulu

Nawiliwili

Pearl Harbor

Kailua

Lahaina

Keauhou

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Pago Pago

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Guam •

Wake Island

West Coast and Pacific

Tsunami Forecast Model Sites

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Montauk

Myrtle Beach

Daytona Beach

Cape Hatteras

Key West

Savannah

Portland

Nantucket

Portsmouth

Bar Harbor

Palm Beach

Ocean City

Morehead City

Atlantic City

Virginia Beach

Jacksonville Beach

70°W

70°W

80°W

80°W

90°W

90°W

40°N 40°N

30°N 30°N

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San Juan

Mayaguez

Ponce

Arecibo

U.S. Virgin Islands

East Coast and Caribbean

Tsunami Forecast Model Sites

Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

Hawaii American Samoa

U.S. Territories