NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 19 ■ June 2009

u.s. department of health and human services

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

National Center for Health Statistics

Key findings

Data from the 2002 National 

Survey of Family Growth

•	 Over 70% of men and 

women aged 25–44 have ever 

been married: 71% of men and 

79% of women.

•	 Non-Hispanic black men 

and women aged 25–44 have 

lower percentages who have 

ever been married than nonHispanic white and Hispanic 

persons of the same age.

•	 The probability that men 

will marry by age 40 is 81%; 

for women, it is 86%.

•	 A larger percentage of 

women than men aged 35–44 

have married by age 35.

•	 Smaller percentages of nonHispanic black women aged 

35–44 have married by age 35 

than non-Hispanic white or 

Hispanic women of the same 

age range.

•	 Smaller percentages of 

non-Hispanic black men aged 

35–44 who are below the 

poverty line have been married 

by age 35 than non-Hispanic 

black men of the same age 

who are at least 200% above 

poverty.

During the latter half of the 20th century, there were notable increases in the 

age at first marriage among Americans and related increases in the proportion

of unmarried and never-married adults (1,2). Research finds that, in

comparison with unmarried persons, married persons tend to exhibit greater 

physical, emotional, and economic wellbeing, although the association 

may vary by outcome, sex, and other factors (3–5). Children in households 

with two married parents differ from those in other types of households on 

measures such as child achievement, but the causal processes are complex 

(4,6,7). Given the potential benefits of marriage, concerns over a decline in

marriage have prompted a great deal of attention as well as investment in 

marriage promotion programs, such as the Department of Health and Human 

Services’ Healthy Marriage Initiative (8). This report highlights what we 

know about the incidence and timing of first marriage among women and

men 15–44 years of age in the United States, based on data from the National 

Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) conducted in 2002.

Keywords: age ∙ marriage ∙ National Survey of Family Growth

What are the marital experiences of women and men 25–44 

years of age in the United States?

Figure 1. Percentages of men and women 25–44 years of age who have ever been married, by 

race and Hispanic origin: United States, 2002

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle 6.

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Hispanic Non-Hispanic white Non-Hispanic black

Women Men

Percent

71.2 70.0 74.0

62.1

56.2

83.7

76.8 78.6

Who Marries and When? Age at First Marriage in the 

United States: 2002

Paula Goodwin, Ph.D.; Brittany McGill, M.P.P.; and Anjani Chandra, Ph.D.
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 19 ■ June 2009

■  2  ■

Over 70% of women and men 25–44 years of age have ever been married: 79% of women and 

71% of men.

Lower percentages of non-Hispanic black men aged 25–44 years have ever been married 

compared with non-Hispanic white men of the same age range.

Among women 25–44 years of age, non-Hispanic white women have the highest percentage that 

have ever been married (84%) and non-Hispanic black women have the lowest percentage that 

have ever been married (56%).

What are the probabilities of first marriage by various ages for men and 

women?

Figures 2 and 3 are based on analyses using a life table methodology that calculates how likely it 

is that an individual will marry by each of the ages shown (see “Definitions”).

Figure 2. Probability of first marriage before reaching specified ages among men and women 15–44 years of age: 

United States, 2002

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle 6.

0

20

40

60

80

100

18 20 25 30 35 40

Women

Men

Probability

Median 24.8 years

Median 27.3 years

Age (years)

The probability of first marriage by age 18 is low for both men and women: 6% for women and

2% for men.

There is a 50% probability that women will have married for the first time by the age of 25. Not

until age 27 is there a 50% probability that men will have married for the first time.

The probability of first marriage by age 30 is 74% for women and 61% for men.

The probability of first marriage by age 40 is 86% for women and 81% for men.

Women have higher probabilities than men of experiencing a first marriage by each age shown,

except at age 40 (where the difference is not statistically significant).
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 19 ■ June 2009

■  3  ■

Are there sex and race and Hispanic origin differences in the probability of 

first marriage by various ages?

Figure 3. Probability of first marriage before reaching specified ages among men and women 15–44 years of age, by sex 

and race and Hispanic origin: United States, 2002

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle 6.

0

20

40

60

80

100

Non-Hispanic black men

Non-Hispanic white men

Hispanic men

Non-Hispanic black women

Non-Hispanic white women

Hispanic women

18 20 25 30 35 40

Probability

Age (years)

The probabilities that non-Hispanic white and Hispanic men and women will marry for the first

time between the ages of 25 and 40 are higher than the probabilities for non-Hispanic black men 

and women.

Disparities in marital experience by race and Hispanic origin groups increase with age, especially 

among women. For example, the probability of a first marriage among all race and Hispanic

origin groups by age 18 is 10% or less. However, by age 40, the differences are greater: there is 

a 90% probability that non-Hispanic white women will have married for the first time compared

with only a 63% probability for non-Hispanic black women. Data for Hispanic and non-Hispanic 

black men are not shown for age 40 due to insufficient sample size.

Hispanic women have a higher probability of marriage by age 18 (10%) than non-Hispanic white 

women (6%) or non-Hispanic black women (3%).

Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women have a higher probability of marrying for the first time

between the ages of 18 and 30 than their male counterparts. Non-Hispanic black women have a 

higher probability than non-Hispanic black men of marrying for the first time only by age 18. In

fact, after age 30, the data suggest that non-Hispanic black men have higher probabilities of first

marriage than non-Hispanic black women.

Who has not married by age 35 and by age 40?

Although the majority of men and women aged 35–44 have entered their first marriages by age

35, lower percentages of men have done so than women. Seventeen percent of women and 25% 

of men have not married by age 35.
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 19 ■ June 2009

■  4  ■

Figure 4. Percentages of women and men 35–44 and 40–44 years of age who had not married by ages 35 and 40, 

respectively: United States, 2002

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle 6.

0

5

10

15

20

25 Women Men

Percent

Not married by age 35

(among 35–44-year-olds)

Not married by age 40

(among 40–44-year-olds)

16.7

11.6

24.6

16.9

Lower percentages of men aged 40–44 have married by age 40 compared with women aged 

40–44. While 12% of women have not married by age 40, 17% of men have not married by age 

40.

Figure 5. Percentages of women and men 35–44 years of age who had not married by age 35, by race and Hispanic 

origin: United States, 2002

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle 6.

0 10 20 30 40 50

Hispanic

Non-Hispanic white

Non-Hispanic black

Women

Men

Percent not married by age 35

32.0

41.8

24.1

24.6

11.9

17.0

Among women aged 35–44 years, higher percentages of non-Hispanic black women have not 

married by age 35 compared with non-Hispanic white and Hispanic women. While 17% of 

Hispanic and 12% of non-Hispanic white women have not married by age 35, 42% of nonHispanic black women have not married by this age.
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 19 ■ June 2009

■  5  ■

There are no significant differences in the percentages of Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, and 

non-Hispanic black men aged 35–44 years who have not married by age 35. Thirty-two percent of 

non-Hispanic black men have not married by age 35 compared with 24% of non-Hispanic white 

and 25% of Hispanic men.

Figure 6. Percentages of women and men 35–44 years of age who had not married by age 35, by race, Hispanic origin, 

and poverty status: United States, 2002

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle 6.

Hispanic

Non-Hispanic

white

Non-Hispanic

black

Hispanic

Non-Hispanic

white

Non-Hispanic

black

Percent not married by age 35

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Men

Women

Poor 

Near poor

Not poor

Among all race and ethnic groups aged 35–44, the data suggest that larger percentages of poor 

women have not married by age 35 than women who are near poor or not poor.

Among women 35–44 years of age below the poverty level, larger percentages of non-Hispanic 

black women have not married by age 35 than Hispanic or non-Hispanic white women. Fiftythree percent of poor non-Hispanic black women aged 35–44 have not married before age 35 

compared with 19% of poor Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women of the same age group.

Larger percentages of poor non-Hispanic black men aged 35–44 have not married by age 35 

than not-poor non-Hispanic black men (200% or more above poverty). Although not significant, 

the data suggest that a higher percentage of poor Hispanic men have not married by age 35 

than Hispanic men who are not poor. The proportions of non-Hispanic white men who have not 

married by age 35 are similar across poverty statuses.

Summary

According to these analyses, the majority of men and women will marry at some point: The 

probability that men and women will marry by age 40 is over 80%. Important differences arise, 

however, in the timing of first marriage. Women tend to marry at younger ages than men, and 

fewer non-Hispanic black men and women have been married at all ages relative to non-Hispanic 

white and Hispanic men and women. Marriage is uncommon for all groups in the teen years, but 

disparities in the probability of first marriage between the race groups increase with age. NonHispanic white women have a 90% probability of having married for the first time by age 40, 

compared with a 63% probability for non-Hispanic black women.
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 19 ■ June 2009

■  6  ■

Overall, greater percentages of men have not married by age 35 than women. Although being 

poor is associated with greater proportions of men and women not marrying by age 35, there 

are again racial and ethnic variations. Greater percentages of poor non-Hispanic black men aged 

35–44 have not married by age 35 than those who are at least 200% above the poverty level. 

Although the data suggest a similar trend for non-Hispanic white and Hispanic men, poverty 

status was not significantly related to marriage by age 35 for them.

Definitions

Age at first marriage: The respondent’s age in completed years at first formal (or legal) marriage

with a person of the opposite sex.

Hispanic origin and race: Respondents are classified as Hispanic, non-Hispanic white (single

race), non-Hispanic black or African American (single race), and other (including non-Hispanic 

Asian, non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or other 

Pacific Islander, and multiple races). For convenience in writing, non-Hispanic black is used

instead of the full phrase, “non-Hispanic black or African American, single race.” Similarly, the

term “non-Hispanic white” is used instead of the full phrase, “non-Hispanic white, single race.”

Marital status: The categories of “ever-married” and “currently married” refer to the formal (or

legal) marital status of the respondent. “Ever-married” respondents, for example, are those who

have ever been formally or legally married to a person of the opposite sex, including respondents 

who are currently married, divorced, widowed, or separated.

Poverty status: The poverty index ratio (calculated by dividing the total family income by the 

weighted average threshold income of families whose head of household was under 65 years of 

age, based on the 2001 poverty levels defined by the U.S. Census Bureau) was used to determine

the poverty statuses of respondents. Respondents having a poverty index ratio of 99 or less were 

classified as “poor.” Those whose income was 100%–199% of poverty were considered “near

poor,” and those with incomes 200% or above the poverty level were “not poor.”

Probability of first marriage by selected ages: The probability or chance that an individual has 

entered his or her first marriage by various ages was calculated using a life table methodology. 

This methodology uses age-specific marriage rates to calculate how many individuals of a cohort

will experience an event (i.e., first marriage) during an interval. The probabilities produced by

life table methodology do not represent the actual percentages of individuals who have married 

by each age shown; instead, they represent how likely it is that an individual will marry by a 

specified age, given the age-specific marriage rates observed for this NSFG-based cohort. For

example, a probability of first marriage of 0.90 by age 40 for non-Hispanic white women means

that by age 40 there is a 90% probability that non-Hispanic white women will have married for 

the first time.
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 19 ■ June 2009

■  7  ■

Data source and methods

Analyses shown here were conducted using the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (Cycle 

6) a nationally representative sample of the household population 15–44 years of age. The 

sample consists of 12,571 respondents: 4,928 males and 7,643 females (see Groves et al. (9) for 

more detailed information on the NSFG). This report shows findings by characteristics of the

respondent at the time of the interview, including age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and poverty 

level income. Poverty level income at interview may not reflect respondents’ poverty status at the

time of first marriage.

Statistical analyses were conducted using SAS System for Windows, version 9.1 (www.sas.

com). Percentages, probabilities, and medians presented here are weighted national estimates 

that account for different sampling rates and for nonresponse bias and are adjusted to agree with 

population control totals provided by the U.S. Census Bureau (see Lepkowski, et al. (10) for

detailed information about sampling and weighting procedures).

Standard errors were calculated, and tests of significance performed, for selected comparisons in

this report. The statistical package SUDAAN (www.rti.org/sudaan) was used for the calculation 

of standard errors, because it takes into account complex sample designs such as that of the 

NSFG. Significance of differences between subgroups was determined by two-tailed t-tests at 

the 5 percent level. No adjustments were made for multiple comparisons. Lack of comment 

regarding the difference between any two statistics does not mean that significance was tested and

ruled out.

About the authors

Paula Goodwin and Brittany McGill were formerly with the Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics, Division of Vital Statistics, Reproductive 

Statistics Branch. Anjani Chandra is with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s

National Center for Health Statistics, Division of Vital Statistics, Reproductive Statistics Branch.

References

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Population Reports, P70–97. U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC. 2005.

2. U.S. Census Bureau. Annual social and economic supplement: 2003 Current Population

Survey. Current Population Reports, Series P20–553, America’s families and living 

arrangements: 2003. Washington, DC. 2004.

3. Schoenborn CA. Marital status and health: United States, 1999–2002. Advance data from 

vital and health statistics; no 351. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2004.

4. Waite LJ. Does marriage matter? Demography 32(4):483–507. 1995.

5. Wood RG, Goesling B, Avellar S. The effects of marriage on health: A synthesis of

recent research evidence. Report prepared for the Department of Health and Human Services 

by Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. 2007. Available from: http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/07/

marriageonhealth/report.pdf. 
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 19 ■ June 2009

6. McLanahan S, Sandefur G. Growing up with a single parent: What hurts, 

what helps. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. 1994.

7. Wu LL, Wolfe BW. Out of wedlock: Causes and consequences of

nonmarital fertility. New York: Sage. 2001.

8. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children 

and Families. Available from: http://www.acf.hhs.gov/healthymarriage/. 

Accessed June 23, 2008.

9. Groves RM, Benson G, Mosher WD, et al. Plan and operation of

cycle 6 of the National Survey of Family Growth. Vital Health Stat 1(42). 

Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2005.

10. Lepkowski JM, Mosher WD, Davis KE, Groves RM, van Hoewyk J, 

Willem J. National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle 6: Sample design, 

weighting, imputation, and variance estimation. Vital Health Stat 2(142). 

Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2006.

Suggested citation

Goodwin P, McGill B, Chandra A. Who

marries and when? Age at first marriage in 

the United States, 2002. NCHS data brief, 

no 19. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for 

Health Statistics. 2009.

Copyright information

All material appearing in this report is in 

the public domain and may be reproduced 

or copied without permission; citation as to 

source, however, is appreciated.

National Center for Health 

Statistics

Director

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Acting Co-Deputy Directors

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Michael H. Sadagursky

U.S. Department of

Health & Human Services

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

National Center for Health Statistics

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