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File Name: Northeast Model Results and Implicit Prices.docx

Author: Robert Johnston, Clark University

Created: November 8, 2011

Purpose: Presents results for the unweighted Northeast regional model and implicit prices.

Northeast Unweighted Model Results

Normal exit: 4 iterations. Status=0. F= 1086.543

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Start values obtained using MNL model

Dependent variable Choice

Log likelihood function -1086.54273

Estimation based on N = 1060, K = 6

Information Criteria: Normalization=1/N

Normalized Unnormalized

AIC 2.06140 2185.08546

Fin.Smpl.AIC 2.06148 2185.16524

Bayes IC 2.08951 2214.88161

Hannan Quinn 2.07205 2196.37800

Model estimated: Nov 07, 2011, 17:41:08

R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd R2Adj

Constants only -1141.3372 .0480 .0385

Response data are given as ind. choices

Number of obs.= 1060, skipped 0 obs

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Variable| Coefficient Standard Error b/St.Er. P[|Z|>z]

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NEITHER| -.03710 .18108 -.205 .8377

COM_FISH| .05065** .02348 2.157 .0310

FISH_POP| -.00660 .03706 -.178 .8587

FISH_SAV| .01204*** .00129 9.309 .0000

AQUATIC| .08914** .03722 2.395 .0166

COST| -.01310*** .00236 -5.555 .0000

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Note: ***, **, * = Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level.

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Line search does not improve fn. Exiting optimization.

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Random Parameters Logit Model

Dependent variable CHOICE

Log likelihood function -905.32776

Restricted log likelihood -1164.52903

Chi squared [ 21 d.f.] 518.40253

Significance level .00000

McFadden Pseudo R-squared .2225803

Estimation based on N = 1060, K = 21

Information Criteria: Normalization=1/N

Normalized Unnormalized

AIC 1.74779 1852.65553

Fin.Smpl.AIC 1.74863 1853.54570

Bayes IC 1.84617 1956.94203

Hannan Quinn 1.78507 1892.17940
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Model estimated: Nov 07, 2011, 17:51:17

R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd R2Adj

No coefficients -1164.5290 .2226 .2148

Constants only -1141.3372 .2068 .1988

At start values -1086.5427 .1668 .1584

Response data are given as ind. choices

Replications for simulated probs. = 300

Halton sequences used for simulations

RPL model with panel has 367 groups

Variable number of obs./group =NUM_R

Hessian is not PD. Using BHHH estimator

Number of obs.= 1060, skipped 0 obs

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Variable| Coefficient Standard Error b/St.Er. P[|Z|>z]

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|Random parameters in utility functions

NEITHER| -.08269 .36139 -.229 .8190

COM_FISH| .20338*** .05351 3.801 .0001

FISH_POP| .07493 .08347 .898 .3693

FISH_SAV| .03044*** .00519 5.868 .0000

AQUATIC| .20973** .08991 2.333 .0197

|Nonrandom parameters in utility functions

COST| -.02792*** .00447 -6.239 .0000

|Diagonal values in Cholesky matrix, L.

NsNEITHE| .03823 1.05647 .036 .9711

NsCOM_FI| .11916 .20280 .588 .5568

NsFISH_P| .11595 .41727 .278 .7811

NsFISH_S| .00575 .03888 .148 .8825

NsAQUATI| .00746 .69050 .011 .9914

|Below diagonal values in L matrix. V = L*Lt

COM_:NEI| -.12870 .24292 -.530 .5962

FISH:NEI| -.10114 .59089 -.171 .8641

FISH:COM| .09108 .43264 .211 .8333

FIS0:NEI| -.03455 .05161 -.669 .5032

FIS0:COM| .00218 .03711 .059 .9531

FISH:FIS| -.04383 .03707 -1.182 .2371

AQUA:NEI| -.08985 .55768 -.161 .8720

AQUA:COM| .08289 .53992 .154 .8780

AQUA:FIS| -.10091 .46181 -.219 .8270

AQU0:FIS| -.21448 .24289 -.883 .3772

|Standard deviations of parameter distributions

sdNEITHE| .03823 1.05647 .036 .9711

sdCOM_FI| .17539 .28451 .616 .5376

sdFISH_P| .17880 .31559 .567 .5710

sdFISH_S| .05615*** .01159 4.845 .0000

sdAQUATI| .26680 .33937 .786 .4318

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Note: ***, **, * = Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level.

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Northeast Implicit Prices

(mean) wtp_com_mean (COMMERCIAL FISH POPULATIONS)

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Percentiles Smallest
3

1% 2.693975 .3951785

5% 4.139024 1.292966

10% 4.783731 1.957414 Obs 1000

25% 5.958498 1.973938 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 7.215217 Mean 7.349289

Largest Std. Dev. 2.145413

75% 8.689623 15.12652

90% 10.04024 15.71999 Variance 4.602798

95% 11.1353 16.10493 Skewness .4626784

99% 13.17953 16.52213 Kurtosis 3.824632

(mean) wtp_pop_mean (ALL FISH POPULATIONS)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% -4.492514 -7.851726

5% -2.317922 -6.643063

10% -1.19219 -6.106448 Obs 1000

25% .4702606 -5.496103 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 2.736312 Mean 2.662862

Largest Std. Dev. 3.134005

75% 4.622404 12.57014

90% 6.565301 13.24605 Variance 9.821986

95% 7.71069 13.90588 Skewness .1769587

99% 10.32604 15.88666 Kurtosis 3.397313

(mean) wtp_sav_mean (FISH SAVED)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% .6307923 .3893836

5% .7626769 .5337396

10% .8352999 .5398854 Obs 1000

25% .972112 .5576977 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 1.107931 Mean 1.115577

Largest Std. Dev. .2226396

75% 1.253715 1.883359

90% 1.385205 1.905408 Variance .0495684

95% 1.508898 1.955827 Skewness .4012826

99% 1.680383 2.309719 Kurtosis 4.100429

(mean) wtp_aquat_mean (AQUATIC CONDITION)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% .2050134 -1.363462

5% 2.354741 -1.296743
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10% 3.275398 -1.268177 Obs 1000

25% 5.152472 -.7257515 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 7.601045 Mean 7.661013

Largest Std. Dev. 3.404162

75% 9.972235 16.30427

90% 12.31081 16.4189 Variance 11.58832

95% 13.44854 17.20496 Skewness .1599095

99% 15.66497 20.30567 Kurtosis 2.803974

(mean) wtp_ne_mean (NEITHER)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% -30.88248 -47.43936

5% -22.52037 -40.05936

10% -18.96277 -38.84992 Obs 1000

25% -11.88988 -35.218 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% -3.166848 Mean -2.415998

Largest Std. Dev. 13.3945

75% 6.343964 38.06396

90% 14.871 40.50648 Variance 179.4126

95% 19.87687 48.35408 Skewness .2632551

99% 31.91703 50.98003 Kurtosis 3.271161