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54–513 2010

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THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MAY 2009 

HEARING 

BEFORE THE

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE 

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES 

ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS 

FIRST SESSION 

JUNE 5, 2009 

Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee 

( 

(II) 

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE 

[Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress] 

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 

CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York, Chair 

MAURICE D. HINCHEY, New York 

BARON P. HILL, Indiana 

LORETTA SANCHEZ, California 

ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS, Maryland 

VIC SNYDER, Arkansas 

KEVIN BRADY, Texas 

RON PAUL, Texas 

MICHAEL C. BURGESS, M.D., Texas 

JOHN CAMPBELL, California 

SENATE 

CHARLES E. SCHUMER, New York, Vice 

Chairman 

EDWARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts 

JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico 

AMY KLOBUCHAR, Minnesota 

ROBERT P. CASEY, JR., Pennsylvania 

JIM WEBB, Virginia 

SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas, Ranking Minority 

JIM DEMINT, South Carolina 

JAMES E. RISCH, Idaho 

ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah 

NAN GIBSON, Executive Director 

JEFF SCHLAGENHAUF, Minority Staff Director 

CHRISTOPHER FRENZE, House Republican Staff Director 

(III) 

C O N T E N T S 

MEMBERS

Hon. Elijah E. Cummings, a U.S. Representative from Maryland ...................... 1 

Hon. Kevin Brady, a U.S. Representative from Texas ......................................... 3 

Hon. Michael C. Burgess, M.D., a U.S. Representative from Texas ................... 4 

WITNESSES

Statement of Dr. Keith Hall, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Accompanied by Dr. Michael Horrigan, Associate Commissioner for Prices 

and Living Conditions, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Mr. Philip Rones, 

Deputy Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States Department of Labor, Washington, DC ......................................................................... 6 

SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD

Prepared statement of Representative Elijah E. Cummings ............................... 28 

Prepared statement of Representative Kevin Brady ............................................ 28 

Prepared statement of Dr. Keith Hall, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, together with Press Release No. 09–0588 .................................................. 29 

Prepared statement of Senator Robert P. Casey, Jr. ............................................ 60 

(1) 

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MAY 2009 

FRIDAY, JUNE 5, 2009 

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES, 

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE, 

Washington, DC. 

The committee met, pursuant to call, at 9:32 a.m. in Room 106 

of the Dirksen Senate Office Building, The Honorable Elijah E. 

Cummings, presiding. 

Representatives present: Cummings, Brady, and Burgess. 

Senators present: Klobuchar and Casey. 

Staff present: Gail Cohen, Nan Gibson, Colleen Healy, Aaron 

Kabaker, Justin Ungson, Andrew Wilson, Rachel Greszler, Lydia 

Mashburn, Jeff Schlagenhauf, Jeff Wrase, and Chris Frenze. 

OPENING STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE ELIJAH E. 

CUMMINGS, A U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FROM MARYLAND 

Representative Cummings. Good morning. I would like to 

thank Chair Maloney for holding this hearing. I also welcome Commissioner Hall and his colleagues from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to brief us on the most recent unemployment data. 

This morning’s release reported May job losses totalling 

345,000—almost half of the losses in recent months—but an unemployment rate of 9.4 percent, a jump of half a percentage from the 

previous month. 

Adding up discouraged workers and part-time workers who cannot find full-time employment, the unemployment rate jumped to 

16.4 percent, the highest rate since the government started collecting this information in 1994. 

However, it was also announced recently that the initial jobless 

claims for the week ending May 30th fell. The Consumer Confidence Index experienced a small uptick, and the European Central Bank held interest rates steady yesterday, signaling expectations that the global economy may just have bottomed out. 

I am encouraged by the marginal improvements like Consumer 

Confidence, but even this good sign is accompanied by a sobering 

counterpoint. Increased consumer spending has yet to translate 

into actual spending by consumers of businesses—or businesses, 

rather, families are saving, and I do not blame them. They see that 

more than one in four unemployed workers has been unemployed 

for over six months, and that the median duration of unemployment is now 14.9 weeks, a record high since the series started in 

1967. 

2 

The cumulative effects of the recession, seven consecutive months 

of loss totaling 6 million jobs, have left these ordinary very hardworking Americans on precarious footing. 

When a worker is laid off, economists say that that person experienced a, quote, ‘‘income shock.’’ This is a vast understatement. 

Now unemployed families must work through any savings they 

have accrued to pay bills and continue to feed their children. And 

then, as home values fall and mortgages go unpaid, they are suddenly looking foreclosure in the face. 

While the foreclosure crisis started with homes that fell victim 

to plunging values and then moved to the subprime sector, the borrowers facing interest rate hikes, now prime borrowers, have been 

affected as well. 

The New York Times wrote on May 24th that, and I quote: This 

third wave of foreclosures can be attributed in large part to the rising tide of unemployment. Fortunately, to many homeowners some 

degree of help is available. We have strong mortgage modification 

programs in place that allow homeowners to decrease their payments and work out solutions to stay in their homes. 

But for the unemployed, however, when home values fall a mortgage modification will take them only so far. What a modification 

cannot do is bring back an income or health insurance. 

So without new and creative ways to help the unemployed, these 

Americans may still lose their homes. We also know that a job loss 

does not just affect the individual employee and his or her home; 

surrounding home values fall with each foreclosure, and some cities 

have seen more than 100 foreclosures every day. 

Further, our safety nets are stretched thin, and that is all some 

folks have. I read yesterday in USA Today that one of every six 

dollars of Americans’ income is from unemployment, social security, 

or public benefits. 

Further, ProPublica reported that 14 states have already gone 

through available unemployment reserve funds. So the effects of 

unemployment are being felt in so many places by all of us. 

Accordingly, this Congress and President Obama have taken decisive action against the recession through the American Recovery 

and Reinvestment Act, as well as legislation addressing predatory 

mortgage lending and unfair credit card practices. 

We are also helping people at the local level. Tomorrow in Baltimore we are putting over 500 borrowers together with 19 lenders 

to try to work out mortgage solutions. I hope everyone who shows 

up can save his or her home, but I suspect that will not be the case 

as the unemployed may not qualify for modifications. 

It would be almost impossible to modify a loan when you do not 

have a job. I look forward to the testimony of Dr. Hall, as we must 

understand exactly where we are in this crisis and just how far we 

have to go. 

With that, I will yield to Mr. Brady. 

[The prepared statement of Elijah E. Cummings appears in the 

Submissions for the Record on page 28.] 

3 

OPENING STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE KEVIN BRADY, A 

U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FROM TEXAS 

Representative Brady. Thank you, Mr. Cummings, and I join 

you in welcoming Commissioner Hall before the Committee this 

morning. 

The increase in the unemployment rate to a level of 9.4 percent 

is disturbing for several reasons. 

First, the higher unemployment rate reflects greater hardship for 

American workers and their families. 

Second, along with other economic data it reflects the continuing 

weakness in the economy. 

And third, the higher unemployment rate underscores the unrealistic nature of the Administration’s economic assumptions based 

on the idea that the stimulus spending would cap rising unemployment. 

The payroll employment decline reported today also shows that 

the economy continues to contract. The 345,000 drop in May payroll employment is a significant monthly job loss and is broadly 

based in many industries. Although the overall pace of job loss was 

not as terrible as in recent months, manufacturing continues to 

suffer large employment declines. 

There is some tentative evidence suggesting the economy may 

bottom out in coming months. For example, financial market conditions have improved; some measures of manufacturing activity 

have stabilized; and some data related to housing and construction 

are less negative. 

However, measures to prevent foreclosures are not working well, 

and re-default rates are very high with more loan losses to come. 

Business investment has collapsed, and the commercial real estate 

continues to be under stress. Consumer spending is weak, and exports are falling as many of our major trading partners are also experiencing recession. 

I continue to be concerned about the Administration’s unrealistic 

economic assumptions which were the basis for the President’s 

budget proposal. The Economist magazine called these economic assumptions dangerous because they understate the true cost of the 

Administration’s deficit spending and debt accumulation. 

Unfortunately, according to the Congressional Budget Office Ad- ministration policies will triple the national debt to a level of $17.3 

trillion by 2019. This avalanche of government deficits and debt is 

one reason long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, are 

on the rise. 

A central problem is that the Administration assumed that its 

stimulus spending sprees would significantly improve the economy. 

As this poster shows, as we compare the projections by the White 

House versus the real economy, just in January two top Administration economists projected that the unemployment rate would not 

exceed 8 percent this year or next if the stimulus was enacted. 

The Administration followed up by forecasting an average unemployment rate of 8.1 percent for all of 2009. However, as this poster 

shows, the current level of the unemployment rate, well above 9 

percent, is enough to show that the Administration’s assumptions 

about the positive impact of the stimulus was wrong. If the Administration’s forecast were internally consistent, this would also indiVerDate Nov 24 2008 09:23 Mar 18, 2010 Jkt 054513 PO 00000 Frm 00007 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C:\DOCS\54513.TXT SHAUN PsN: DPROCT
4 

cate that the economy will be lower, the GDP will be lower than 

projected. 

An economic upturn should occur by next year, if only due to the 

huge amounts of money and credit injected into the economy by the 

Federal Reserve. 

However, the economic recovery probably will be quite weak and 

not consistent with the White House’s rosy scenario for 2010. So 

what will be the sources of economic growth next year? 

With many households forced to pay down debt, a surge in consumption is not likely. Excessive levels of government spending 

and debt are already rattling financial markets, so much more government stimulus spending is not a feasible option. 

U.S. exports may be constrained by weakness in other countries, 

and by retaliation against our own trade policies. That leaves investment as a main source of growth. But how many will undertake long-term investments when facing a tidal wave of new taxes, 

entitlement spending, and inflation? Future economic growth will 

rely heavily on investment, but more taxes, government borrowing, 

regulation, and inflation all will hit investors very hard. 

Government is not evil, and up to a point provides more benefits 

than costs, but beyond this point becomes counterproductive. Policymakers should understand that excessive government does have 

the potential to choke off healthy economic and employment 

growth. 

If the long-term rate of economic growth is reduced from 3 to 2 

percent or below, the result will be much slower job growth and 

higher levels of unemployment. Congress should wake up to the 

damage that it is inflicting and stop enacting legislation that only 

increases the burden of government on the economy. 

With that, I would yield back. 

[The prepared statement of Kevin Brady appears in the Submissions for the Record on page 28.] 

Representative Cummings. Thank you very much, Mr. Brady. 

Now we are very pleased to—Mr. Burgess, do you have an opening 

statement? 

Representative Burgess. Mr. Chairman, I do. 

Representative Cummings. Thank you. Yield to you for five 

minutes. 

OPENING STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE MICHAEL C. 

BURGESS, M.D., A U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FROM TEXAS 

Representative Burgess. Thank you. Thanks for the indulgence. 

Each month this Committee receives the release of the Bureau 

of Labor Statistics’ numbers, and each month we continue to feel 

the need for what President Clinton used to call ‘‘that laser like 

focus on the economy.’’ 

This month we see significant job losses without extreme—without any focus on economy priorities. Perhaps Congress needs to appoint someone solely responsible for focusing the effects on domestic economic issues. 

We could use someone in the room who will say, ‘‘how exactly 

will this new initiative, this new czar, this new czarina, or bill that 

5 

is supposed to have a causal relationship, how will this create new 

jobs?’’ 

Two weeks ago in one of my other committees we heard a lot 

about cap and trade. They said cap and trade will lead to new jobs. 

The report released on Tuesday by the White House Council of Economic Advisers claims that the President’s concept of health care 

reform would create 500,000 jobs a year. 

Well, we can all look forward to those potential jobs in 2012, 

2014, 2016, when these plans take effect, but where is the plan to 

build job growth this month, or even this year? 

Looking at the numbers released this morning, the only industry 

that appears to be on a hiring spree is us, the Federal Government. 

It only makes sense that, at the rapid pace of the size and scope 

of the Federal Government has increased over the last four 

months, the Federal Government would need more employees to 

keep up. 

However, government spending is a boon for people living here, 

but government hiring is not an effective method for aggregate job 

growth or industry-wide all-states employment gains. 

To illustrate the real impact of the job losses, we certainly can 

look at the home foreclosure numbers. Nationally, home foreclosures—the foreclosure stated rate, the homes that are starting 

to enter the foreclosure process, is 1.4 percent compared to just 1 

percent a year earlier. The foreclosure inventory stands at 3.9 percent, compared to 2.5 percent a year earlier. While 7.2 percent of 

mortgages are seriously delinquent compared to only 4 percent a 

year earlier. 

In Texas the inventory of foreclosed mortgages is 1.7 percent 

compared to 1.5 the prior quarter, and 1.45 percent for all of the 

past year. 

Needless to say, these trends are troubling. What is most troubling is the fact that these are not foreclosures due to an unexpected uptick on the adjustable rate mortgage or the result of some 

subprime mortgage swindle; these problems have, for the most 

part, been purged from the financial system. These foreclosure 

numbers represent homes in trouble or lost due to loss of family 

income related to the loss of a job. 

We can take away the bank’s ability to foreclose or force bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages, but these actions ignore the 

source of the problem. The downward trend in foreclosures needs 

to be addressed and it needs to be addressed before major social 

initiatives like environmental reform through cap and trade legislation, and certainly before Congress undertakes to name an additional 50 Post Offices. 

Again, I call for all hands on deck and all efforts to focus on improving the domestic economy. I would like to point out that we are 

going to continue to see job losses if the government is allowed to 

close 789 Chrysler dealerships, and 1100 GM dealerships, as part 

of the Administration’s auto industry restructuring plan. 

It is interesting that all of these decisions are made by someone 

in the West Wing of the White House who has never even held a 

private-sector job. 

If these dealerships are comfortable staying open and the banks 

in the community can continue to provide the capital, I frankly 

6 

cannot see a reason why these dealerships should be forced to 

close. Who else is going to sell these little green cars if we do not 

have the dealerships there to provide the services. 

Well I would like to thank Dr. Hall for testifying before the Committee, and for his team’s important work at the Bureau of Labor 

Statistics. 

I will yield back the balance of my time. 

Representative Cummings. Thank you very much, Mr. Burgess. 

We are very pleased, again, to welcome Commissioner Keith Hall 

of the Labor Statistics for the United States Department of Labor, 

and thank you very much for being with us. I yield to you, sir. 

STATEMENT OF DR. KEITH HALL, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF 

LABOR STATISTICS; ACCOMPANIED BY DR. MICHAEL 

HORRIGAN, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER FOR PRICES AND 

LIVING CONDITIONS, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS; AND 

MR. PHILIP RONES, DEPUTY COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF 

LABOR STATISTICS, UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF 

LABOR, WASHINGTON, DC 

Commissioner Hall. Mr. Chairman, Members of the Committee: 

Thank you for the opportunity to discuss the employment and 

unemployment data that we released this morning. 

Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May. Job 

losses averaged 643,000 per month during the prior 6 months. In 

May, the unemployment rate rose from 8.9 to 9.4 percent. Since the 

recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen 

by 6 million, and the unemployment rate has increased by 4.5 percentage points. 

Job losses continued to be widespread in May, but the rate of decline moderated in construction and several service-providing industries. 

Large job losses continued in the manufacturing sector with employment declines in nearly all component industries. Employment 

fell sharply in motor vehicles and parts, machinery, and fabricated 

metals. Since the start of the recession, manufacturing employment 

has decreased by 1.8 million, accounting for 30 percent of the jobs 

lost during this downturn. 

Construction employment declined by 59,000 in May, half the average of the previous 6 months. Job losses moderated in the private 

service-providing industries, with employment falling by 113,000 in 

May compared with an average monthly decline of 356,000 in the 

prior 6 months. 

Employment was little changed in temporary help, retail trade, 

and leisure and hospitality, following large declines in recent 

months. 

Elsewhere in the service-providing sector, the health care industry added 24,000 jobs in May. This was about in line with the trend 

thus far in 2009. 

In May, average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers in the private sector were up by 2 cents to 

$18.54. 

7 

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 

3.1 percent. From April 2008 to April 2009, the Consumer Price 

Index for Urban Wage Earnings and Clerical Workers declined by 

1.2 percent. 

Turning to measures from the Survey of Households, the unemployment rate increased from 8.9 to 9.4 percent over the month. 

The number of unemployed rose by 787,000 to 14.5 million. 

Since the recession began, the jobless rate has increased by 4.5 

percentage points, and the number of unemployed persons has 

grown by 7 million. 

Among the unemployed, the number who have been out of work 

27 weeks or more increased by 268,000 to 3.9 million. These longterm unemployed represent 2.5 percent of the labor force, the highest proportion since 1983. 

Over the month, the employment-to-population ratio edged down 

to 59.7 percent, the lowest level since October 1984. Since the recession began, the employment-to-population ratio has fallen by 3 

percentage points. 

Among the employed, the number of persons working part time 

who would prefer full-time work was little changed for the second 

consecutive month. At 9.1 million in May, involuntary part-time 

employment was 4.4 million higher than at the start of the recession. 

Among those outside the labor force—that is, persons neither 

working nor looking for work—the number of discouraged workers 

was 792,000 in May, up from 400,000 a year earlier. These individuals are not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs 

are available to them. 

In summary, nonfarm payroll employment fell by 345,000 in 

May, compared with the average monthly decline of 643,000 for the 

previous 6 months. While job losses continued to be widespread, declines moderated in construction and in a number of service-providing industries. The unemployment rate rose by half a percentage point to 9.4 percent. 

My colleagues and I would now be glad to answer your questions. 

[The prepared statement of Keith Hall appears in the Submissions for the Record on page 29.] 

Representative Cummings. Thank you very much, Commissioner Hall. 

Commissioner, I think we had a loss of about 652,000 jobs in 

March. Is that right? Is that estimate right? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, that’s correct. 

Representative Cummings. And we had a loss of about 

504,000 in April? Is that correct? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, that’s correct. 

Representative Cummings. And this month we are talking 

about 345,000? Is that right? 

Commissioner Hall. That’s correct. 

Representative Cummings. Now tell us the significance of 

that. Is that a slowing down of the job losses, the rate of job losses? 

Is that a reasonable statement there? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, it is. We have had a steady moderation in job loss for, it looks like four straight months now. 

8 

Representative Cummings. And what does that tell you? I 

mean, when you are trying to look forward what does that say? 

Does it—and what do you attribute that to? 

Commissioner Hall. Well this is clearly not an improvement in 

the job market yet. This is a moderation in the job loss. So this is 

what we hope to see on the way towards eventually job growth. 

Representative Cummings. Now we have heard a number of, 

here recently, folks, the so-called experts, say that we are, it looks 

like we may be coming out of this recession at the end of the year, 

or some who look at it a little more conservatively say sometime 

in the next year. What do you see? 

Commissioner Hall. It is hard for me to project, but I will say 

this sort of moderation is consistent with an improving job market. 

As far as whether it will hold, continue to moderate in the future, 

I can’t say. 

Representative Cummings. Now is it possible to identify the 

effects of the stimulus bill with regard to employment data? I 

mean, is there any correlation you can make from looking at what 

you see there? 

Commissioner Hall. It is hard for us to do that. We are rather 

focused on just sort of getting the numbers correct, and we don’t 

tend to try and look and see where the stimulus spending has occurred and where we are seeing improvements. 

Representative Cummings. I understand. Well where have the 

improvements been? 

Commissioner Hall. The improvements have been fairly widespread outside of manufacturing. So we have had a moderation of 

job loss very much in the service-providing sector, which is interesting because in the prior six months about half the job loss was 

in services. And now it is maybe a third of the job loss. 

Representative Cummings. And why is that so significant? 

Commissioner Hall. I think it is significant because this downturn sort of started in manufacturing and construction, and when 

things got really severe, the most severe job loss—and this job loss 

is still severe—it was very widespread and really included even 

services. 

So having services back out is a good sign. It’s not a good sign, 

obviously, for manufacturing but it’s a good sign that—well, it is 

a good sign that we are seeing broad moderation. 

Representative Cummings. Now there have been recent reports with regard to I think The New York Times carried an article 

just recently saying basically that we have a situation where, for 

example, in New York they predict now that they will not get 44 

percent of the employment taxes—in other words, earnings’ taxes— 

because I guess the unemployment rate is down. 

When you hear figures like that, how does that affect—how do 

you see that affecting this job situation? In other words, state governments are getting less money, possibly. And there is another report that says that number of these state governments, in almost 

every area that they had predicted that they would be gaining 

funds they are actually coming up very short. And so what do you 

see with regard to state government and how does that, the state 

and local government, how does that relate to all of this? 

9 

Commissioner Hall. So far, even the last six or seven months, 

the employment at the state and local level has been pretty flat. 

Obviously the concern would be that at some point the budgets 

may start to cause state and local governments to decline in employment. 

Representative Cummings. And that would be a major problem? 

Commissioner Hall. It would. 

Representative Cummings. The other thing that Mr. Burgess 

referred to was the foreclosure situation. As a matter of fact, Mr. 

Brady and Mr. Burgess referred to it. And we’ve got situations 

where we are doing these modifications, but if people do not have 

jobs that is a real problem. Do you see that—that is, the loss of 

housing—does that create a problem with regard to jobs, too? 

Commissioner Hall. Sure it does. I think it is the same sort of 

cycle that you see with consumption or anything else. When you 

have foreclosures, or when you have consumer spending down, it 

creates unemployment. Then the unemployment creates more, a 

bigger decline in consumer spending. So it is a cycle. So it would 

be the same thing I think with foreclosures. 

Representative Cummings. I see my time has expired. Mr. 

Brady for five minutes. 

Representative Brady. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

You were making the point that the job market is not improving; 

it is continuing to decline at a significant rate, just thankfully not 

as deep and quickly as in the past months. 

What does the May decline in payroll employment say about the 

current economic conditions? 

Commissioner Hall. Although there has been some moderation 

in the job loss, this still is a significant job loss and this still signals a labor market that is not healthy. 

Representative Brady. Well that is what I sense back home in 

visiting with retailers and construction manufacturing industry 

and the service, especially in the commercial real estate. We’re not 

seeing—the government programs to help people with mortgages 

are failing. I think the hope for home ownership—home owners 

program was supposed to help 400,000 people keep their homes, 

and it helped like 200. 

The incentives for new home owners to purchase homes, again 

almost no takes. We are hopeful that some of the new redrawn 

plans might help, but I still think underlying, as Mr. Cummings 

said, is a very weak economy that’s got some future challenges 

ahead. 

There has been a lot of spin in Washington these past months 

about the impact of the stimulus, and it is almost like we are listening to Baghdad Bob again from Iraq tell us about how the country is winning the war as the U.S. Troops are rolling into his city. 

Last January, two top Administration economists argued that if 

we enacted the stimulus, which has added—you know, will add almost a trillion dollars to our debt—that if we did that, we would 

keep the unemployment rate at or below 8 percent this year. 

This level has already been exceeded, correct? 

Commissioner Hall. Correct. 

10 

Representative Brady. And isn’t there, from an economic view 

looking at the poster and watching the rising unemployment, which 

trails the economy as we all know, but looking at the President’s 

projections of 8 percent, 8.1 percent versus the current 9.4 percent, 

is that statistically significant in unemployment? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, that’s a significant difference. And to 

reach an 8.1 percent average for the year, we would need to see 

the unemployment rate drop to well below 8.1 percent for a good 

portion of the year to hit that mark. It seems difficult. 

Representative Brady. Yes. And the deeper we go into the 

year, the more severe—we would almost have to be in the 7 percent, or 6 percent rate at some point to be able to meet that need, 

which again worries me because these are projections that were 

used for the budget, which means we are hiding a deeper level of 

debt. 

The Administration, including the Vice President, has claimed 

that the stimulus policies have added 150,000 new jobs to the level 

of employment, we see this cited almost daily by the Administration, can you substantiate that claim? 

Commissioner Hall. No, that would be a very difficult thing for 

anybody to substantiate. 

Representative Brady. And Chairman, who is a highly respected Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Chairman 

Romer, also cited that 150,000 job creation figure in her recent testimony before this Committee. You are saying you cannot verify 

that the Administration’s policies have created those additional 

150,000 jobs? 

Commissioner Hall. No. We are busy just counting jobs. 

Representative Brady. Right. The Administration’s tax reduction went into effect in April. One of the major parts of the stimulus bill adds about $1.10 a day to the income of individual taxpayers. What evidence is there in this report today that that measure had any positive effect on employment conditions? 

Commissioner Hall. I really would not be able to make a connection between the two in this report. 

Representative Brady. Okay. Mr. Chairman, thank you very 

much. 

Representative Cummings. Thank you very much. Just so—I 

just want to make sure we are clear, Mr. Brady has asked you a 

number of questions and you have said things like I’m just counting jobs, and whatever. Are you saying that the information that 

he is providing you is inaccurate? Or you do not have the information? Or that is not a part of what you are answering? 

Because I think you are sending out a message here, I think, 

that is not what you—what I think you are saying. 

Commissioner Hall. Thank you for the chance to clarify. 

Representative Cummings. Yes, please clarify. 

Commissioner Hall. It is just not something we would be able 

to measure. It does not mean it is not true. 

Representative Cummings. That is a big difference. 

Commissioner Hall. Right. 

Representative Cummings. All right. 

Representative Brady. Well, actually, Mr. Chairman—— 

Representative Cummings. I yield to the gentleman. 

11 

Representative Brady [continuing]. I wasn’t providing information to Mr. Hall. I was asking about the claims that have been 

made by the Administration, and are they reflected in these job 

numbers. And his answer was very clear: No, they are not. He cannot verify them. They are not justifiable in here. And I understand 

that he should not go beyond his scope of expertise in these areas, 

but I think the time when we are seeing so much spin on the economy it is important to go to the facts. 

Representative Cummings. Well now I have got to—I do not 

want to carry this on too much longer, but, Mr. Hall, as I heard 

what you—I just want to make sure we are clear. 

When these statements are made, if you do not have the information I would prefer that you say that; because you can see what is 

happening here. And I do not want it out there that you are saying 

you are denying the numbers when you do not have the information. 

Now can you clarify that? Let him clarify. You can go ahead and 

clarify. I just want to make sure we are clear. All of us need to understand this. 

Commissioner Hall. Right. No, we do not have the information 

because we are just collecting the data. We are not trying to look 

to see where there are effects from the stimulus package. 

Representative Brady. But you do not have the unemployment 

data? 

Commissioner Hall. Sure we have the unemployment data. 

Representative Brady. So when we ask you about the unemployment projections of the Administration, 8.1 percent versus the 

current unemployment rate of 9.4 percent, which you said was significantly—significant, you’re saying you didn’t have that data? 

Commissioner Hall. Oh, no, we have that data. That is absolutely true. The unemployment rate of 9.4 percent is significantly 

different from 8.1. 

Representative Brady. Well, the spin continues here, clearly. 

Representative Cummings. Thank you very much. Mr. Casey. 

Senator Casey. Mr. Chairman, thank you very much. I did not 

plan to get into this discussion, but I think it is very important 

when people are losing their jobs in record numbers that we are 

very clear what this hearing is about and what your job is in the 

Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

So let me just go through a couple of things. Your job, and correct me if I am wrong, but your job is not to make job projections? 

Is that correct? 

Commissioner Hall. That is correct. 

Senator Casey. Your job is not to do analysis of the impact of 

the stimulus legislation? Is that correct? 

Commissioner Hall. That’s correct. 

Senator Casey. Your job is not to speculate about the impact of 

any of the Administration’s economic strategies? Is that correct? 

Commissioner Hall. That’s correct. 

Senator Casey. You are Joe Friday. You are providing the facts 

every month about what the numbers tell you. Is that correct? 

Commissioner Hall. That’s correct. 

Senator Casey. Okay. The rest of us can be something other 

than Joe Friday. We all have different jobs here. 

12 

But I wanted to go through a couple of numbers that I tend to 

ask about every month. First of all, there is some good news here. 

We see that nationally, the job loss number was about—I guess it 

was in March about 700,000? I have 699,000. I want to make sure 

we’re in the right—— 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, it has been revised. It is 652,000 now. 

Senator Casey [continuing]. Okay, 652,000 for March. And then 

for April the revised number is 504,000? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Senator Casey. And then this May number is 345,000? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Senator Casey. So 652,000 to 504,000 to 345,000. So that number is going down, thank God. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Senator Casey. But the rate, the percentage went from, what, 

8.5 to 8.9 to 9.4? 

Commissioner Hall. Correct. 

Senator Casey. So the overall job loss number is going down 

and that is good news, but the bad news is the rate seems high. 

How do you—can you explain that, or analyze that for us? 

Commissioner Hall. I would say that it is not uncommon for 

the two numbers to not be exactly in sync, not be telling exactly 

the same story—— 

Senator Casey. Okay. 

Commissioner Hall [continuing]. Over a month. But what typically happens is in the next month or two I would guess that they 

would reconcile. Either the growth of the unemployment rate would 

slow down, or the job loss might pick up. But typically if they get 

out of sync, they get back into sync fairly quickly. 

Senator Casey. Okay. The numbers that I wanted to ask about, 

which I ask every month, by way of comparison. African American 

unemployment rate went, the month to month, went from 15 to 

14.9. So basically unchanged? Is that correct? 

Commissioner Hall. That’s correct, although it does hide the 

fact that the prior month it increased by 1.7 percentage points. So 

I would sort of say it increased significantly last month, and that 

number held this month. So it is not really good news. 

Senator Casey. Okay. But in terms of African American versus 

White, the White unemployment rate is 8.6? 

Commissioner Hall. Actually we left that out of our numbers 

here. I’m sure—that sounds correct. 

Senator Casey. I just want to make that distinction between African American and White unemployment rate. And the Hispanic 

rate went up from 11.3 to 12.7? Is that correct? 

Commissioner Hall. Correct. 

Senator Casey. So that number has gone up. That is a substantial increase for one month. I’m not sure what that means, but does 

that hold any significance necessarily? I know month to month can 

be a little misleading. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. On the breakouts by demographics, 

some of the numbers move around a bit because it’s not a really 

large sample size. So I would look more for the pattern over the 

last few months, and I think it is still being consistent with the rising unemployment rate overall. 

13 

Senator Casey. Okay. And finally, and then I am almost out of 

time, about a minute, in Pennsylvania our numbers in March and 

April were at 7.8, unchanged. We don’t know the May State number yet. I will know that probably in two weeks. So fortunately in 

the last two months it has been steady. 

But what I worry about, and what a lot of states are concerned 

about, is the impact of the troubles that GM and Chrysler have 

had. In our State it is not auto manufacturing jobs per se, it is 

really dealers and suppliers. 

Any sense of where that is going? I know that in May the number I am seeing here is 29,800 jobs lost in auto manufacturing and 

parts supply. Again, I know it is not your job to prognosticate or 

to predict, but is there any indication that that 29,800 number is 

going to go up? I mean, logic would tell us it will go up because 

we will not see the full effect of the GM and Chrysler problems for 

some time, but do you have anything to add to that? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. I can say that this month’s job loss 

in the autos and auto-related is pretty much consistent with the 

last few months. It is pretty much in the same ballpark that it has 

been. 

Senator Casey. You mean we’re losing about 30,000 jobs a 

month in that sector? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Senator Casey. Okay, thank you very much. 

[The prepared statement of Robert P. Casey, Jr., appears in the 

Submissions for the Record on page 60.] 

Representative Cummings. Thank you very much. Mr. Burgess for five minutes. 

Representative Burgess. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

Let’s, just to finish up and close things up from Representative 

Brady’s line of questions, the 150,000 job creation figure that 

Christina Romer cited, are those your statistics? 

Commissioner Hall. No, they’re not. 

Representative Burgess. So those are statistics from press reports with wide distribution, but they’re not BLS statistics? Is that 

correct? 

Commissioner Hall. That’s correct. 

Representative Burgess. So it would be unusual for you to 

make projections based on that sort of number because that is not 

your number? 

Commissioner Hall. Correct. 

Representative Burgess. Let me ask you a question because 

we get a lot of conflicting information on this Committee and just 

in general and I know people are confused as to the direction of the 

economy. We hear economists talk. You all almost never agree on 

what you’re—the direction that we are going. 

We hear testimony in this Committee about green shoots, and 

then we hear testimony about yellow weeds. So tell us what it is. 

Are we seeing the green shoots? Or is the landscape still pretty 

barren? 

Commissioner Hall. Well, I would say—overall I would say 

that the job loss was significant. It does seem to be a moderation 

over the job loss over the previous six months. 

14 

I suppose that’s the good news. We still have a deteriorating 

labor market but it’s not—it’s not falling as quickly as it was before. I would say that’s the one sign of encouragement here. 

Representative Burgess. Now we have heard a lot this week 

of course about the government’s takeover of General Motors, and 

prior to that the bankruptcy, the forced bankruptcy of Chrysler 

Corporation, and now we are hearing about the dealers that are 

losing their dealerships in this process. 

Is that going to have an effect on what we see in reports that 

you’re going to bring to this Committee over the summer months? 

Commissioner Hall. It may well. Typically when we hear announcements of layoffs it usually takes a few months for those to 

actually occur and work their way into our data. I don’t know specifically where we are in our numbers compared to the announcements. 

Representative Burgess. And I know you can’t comment on 

this, but I will just tell you, not as a Member of Congress but just 

as an American, it is usual to me. I find it unusual that the government is dictating the closure of automobile dealerships. I do find 

that troubling, and I hope that effect will be moderated over the 

coming months but I tend to be pessimistic about that. 

As far as the government itself goes and the growth of government, we do hear a lot about that. Did government employment increase or decrease over the recent months? 

Commissioner Hall. It was roughly flat. It decreased 7,000, but 

that is still roughly flat. 

Representative Burgess. And what other—you mentioned 

health care I think as an industry sector that showed some increases. Were there any others? 

Commissioner Hall. I think health care was probably the only 

major sector that had significant job growth. 

Representative Burgess. And again I know you can’t speculate, but if the government takes over health care then of course 

the health care growth will be in the government sector. I just had 

to point that out. I’m sorry. 

Was there anything unusual in weather patterns over the past 

several weeks, or the past couple of months that would have an impact on the report that you have given to us today? 

Commissioner Hall. I don’t recall hearing any stories from our 

data collectors, or any stories from our industry analysts that 

weather was an impact. 

Representative Burgess. What about, have there been any 

seasonal effects that would have an impact on these numbers that 

we have in front of us today? 

Commissioner Hall. No, I don’t—— 

Representative Burgess. We’re coming off the winter. Actually 

you would probably expect jobs to increase this time of year, but 

then you also have people concluding school so the number of people out looking for jobs may increase. So a profound effect one way 

or the other? 

Commissioner Hall [continuing]. Actually, these numbers are 

seasonally adjusted. So really what they are is we put them in the 

context of what’s normal for this time of year. So there is a seasonal factor here. 

15 

Representative Burgess. But that’s accounted for in the numbers? 

Commissioner Hall. It is. 

Representative Burgess. What about employment? Are there 

any significant gender differences that you’ve identified, male 

versus female employment? 

Commissioner Hall. I think the pattern has been pretty consistent through this recession. The job loss by men versus women, 

is roughly 3 to 1 men versus women. That is actually typical of recessions. In fact, if anything the women’s job loss is a little bit 

higher than it normally is during a recession. 

Representative Burgess. And then as far as real hourly compensation, what have you seen as far as changes in real hourly 

compensation over the past year? 

Commissioner Hall. Well the real pattern—let me talk about 

nominal, first. The nominal compensation, nominal wages during 

the expansion got up to almost 4 percent, and during this recession 

now the nominal wage growth has declined. We’re roughly around 

3.1 percent, something like that. That is typical of recessions. 

Representative Burgess. 3.1 percent is a positive number or a 

negative number? 

Commissioner Hall. It’s a positive number. This is nominal. 

Representative Burgess. Okay. 

Commissioner Hall. And since energy prices have been going 

down—although now they’re starting to tick up—what that’s meant 

in the last few months is real wage growth, but that’s been primarily because of declining energy prices not because of something 

that’s going on in the labor market. 

Representative Burgess. Okay. We just passed a big cap-andtrade bill. Will we be able to identify the green jobs when they 

show up? 

Commissioner Hall. It’s very difficult for us to do that at this 

point, primarily because the industries and occupations that we 

have got aren’t designed to pull out green jobs. That is actually 

something that we may be able to do over time and adjust our 

measurement. It’s a similar—to be honest with you, it’s a similar 

sort of problem as we had say in the late 1990s with IT jobs. 

Representative Burgess. But perhaps you can color-code your 

reports in the future as to the green jobs. I yield back, Mr. Chairman. 

Representative Cummings. Thank you very much. Ms. Klobuchar for five minutes. 

Senator Klobuchar. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. 

Good to see you again, Commissioner Hall; enjoyed our hearing last 

month. 

I think when we were talking last month at this hearing you 

had—we went through the statistics and the increases, and you indicated that we would continue to see this unemployment. 

One of the things I just wanted to clarify in light of Congressman 

Brady’s questions was the fact that I think since the start of the 

recession we have lost something like 7 million people have lost 

their jobs. When do you mark the start of this recession, this economic crisis? 

16 

Commissioner Hall. December ’07 was chosen by the NBER as 

the start of the recession. The first payroll job loss occurred in January 2008. So that has been a pretty good indicator I think for the 

recession. 

Senator Klobuchar. So December ’07. So that was an entire 

year before President Obama took office? Is that correct? 

Commissioner Hall. That’s correct. 

Senator Klobuchar. All right. So we are at a 9.4 percent unemployment rate. And just as we talked about last month, these are 

real people who have lost their jobs. 

I mentioned to you some stories last time, and I think we always 

have to remember this when we use these statistics. I heard just 

this week from a woman in Rice, Minnesota, who works to provide 

residential services for the disabled. She is a single mother of four 

and works two jobs, sometimes not coming home until 3:00 in the 

morning. She told me that she finds it hard to be a good mother 

to her children. 

And one of the questions I had last time—and I want to continue 

on this vein—is when people look at these unemployment rates it 

is not just people that do not have any job at all, but we have seen 

a decrease in hours, and people who would like to have—they have 

a job, but it is not as extensive as they like. They are not getting 

as many hours as they would like. 

What are those numbers this month? 

Commissioner Hall. Sure. They are all telling a similar pattern 

in terms of a struggling labor market. The part-time for economic 

reasons we now have 9.1 million people who are part-time who 

would rather be full-time. That is an increase of 174,000. They are 

not included in the unemployment rate. 

And discouraged workers, we have about nearly 800,000 discouraged workers. And that is an increase of almost 400,000 over the 

year. 

Senator Klobuchar. Okay. So when you include those workers, 

when you include the discouraged workers, what is the unemployment rate then? 

Commissioner Hall. It goes up to 16.4 percent. 

Senator Klobuchar. And those are people who have just given 

up looking for a job? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. A combination of people who are either underemployed or have given up, and those who actually are 

unemployed and still looking. 

Senator Klobuchar. And so when you say ‘‘underemployed,’’ 

does that include our people that don’t have as many hours in as 

they would like? 

Commissioner Hall. No, it doesn’t. 

Senator Klobuchar. So can you include those? Or is that too 

difficult? 

Commissioner Hall. Well I guess it does in the sense that people who are working part-time who want to be full-time, they are 

counted. 

Senator Klobuchar. Okay. 

Commissioner Hall. But just—the same change in the hours, 

that is not reflected in here. 

17 

Senator Klobuchar. And you said earlier in your testimony 

that, as we look at different sectors that we still see the manufacturing way down. Where is construction? Have we seen any change 

in that over the last month? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, we had a little moderation in the job 

loss in construction. 

Senator Klobuchar. Really? Okay. What was that? 

Commissioner Hall. That dropped 59,000, which is a little bit 

better than it has been. 40,000 of that was nonresidential. 

Senator Klobuchar. Okay. So where is that now, construction, 

the unemployment rate? 

Commissioner Hall. I don’t know it by industry. 

Senator Klobuchar. Okay. One of the things we have talked 

about before is, one of the early indications to you that this was 

more than just a blip was that this was crossing across sectors, I 

remember you telling me, but also across geographic areas. While 

some states have it worse, it was really clear that it was going on 

across the United States and that is when we realized it was a 

year ago that this was going to be a big problem. 

Our state now went, we lag about a month, but from the 8.2 percent down to 8.1 percent unemployment. Have you seen improvements in certain areas of the country in the last few months? Is 

there any kind of trend there? 

Commissioner Hall. You know, I haven’t—I haven’t looked to 

see what the trend is like by state. Obviously the state unemployment numbers on average are consistent with the national numbers, so I would expect if there’s been—well, there hasn’t been 

much of an improvement in the unemployment rate yet, so I expect 

that they have all increased. 

Senator Klobuchar. Where have you seen the—what are the 

highest unemployment rates? Which states, and what are they? 

And does this lag by a month? Or are these the current statistics? 

Commissioner Hall. This one is lagging by a month. 

Senator Klobuchar. Oh, okay. 

Commissioner Hall. We will have them in a week or so. We 

have nine states now in double digits: Oregon, Michigan, North 

Carolina, South Carolina, Nevada, Rhode Island, California, Ohio, 

and Puerto Rico. They all have double digit unemployment rates 

right now. 

Senator Klobuchar. So you see them really in all parts of the 

country. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Senator Klobuchar. But could it be possible that it is more focused with states that have more manufacturing, although Oregon 

I don’t think fits that. 

Commissioner Hall. Yeah, I think there is a bit of a correlation. Some of the manufacturing states actually started with higher 

unemployment rates, and they have also had a higher rise in unemployment. 

Senator Klobuchar. Okay, I’ll save some questions for the second round. Thank you. 

Representative Cummings. Thank you very much. 

Commissioner Hall, we have got a number of our constituents 

I’m sure watching you right now, and we’ve got young people comVerDate Nov 24 2008 09:23 Mar 18, 2010 Jkt 054513 PO 00000 Frm 00021 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C:\DOCS\54513.TXT SHAUN PsN: DPROCT
18 

ing out of college, and we’ve got folks who have lost their jobs. 

When you look at your statistics here, where would you say to 

them, if they were trying to find a job, what kind of areas might 

they want to look? Just based upon what you see here, what might 

be their best chances of getting employment? 

Commissioner Hall. Right. It’s hard for me to recommend 

something. The—— 

Representative Cummings. I’m not necessarily asking you to 

recommend. I’m just trying to see where the jobs are. 

Commissioner Hall [continuing]. Sure. Certainly during the recession the only consistent job growth has been in health care, and 

maybe government a little bit. Almost everything else has seen 

some job loss. And in almost every sector now continues to see 

some job loss. 

So it is hard to say, at least right now, where there is likely to 

be growth. 

Representative Cummings. When I listen to your testimony— 

and I don’t want us to have on rosy glasses, because I want us to 

be very realistic; we are dealing with the lives of people, and people 

trying to take care of the families, but I see numbers where people 

are losing 600,000-plus jobs in April I think, and then 500-andsome in the last few months, and then we go to 345,000. That 

seems to have some kind of significance. 

I mean, any time you are cutting something in half, to me that 

sounds significant. But do you see it that way? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, I do. It is encouraging that the job 

loss has moderated. And while this is not good news, this is what 

we would hope to see on the way to good news. In other words, this 

is a labor market that is not falling as fast as it was before. 

Representative Cummings. And one of the things that I believe is very important in all of this recovery that we are trying to 

exercise here is that there must be some kind of consumer confidence. 

Is there a connection between the overall consumer confidence 

and the level of direction of unemployment rates? 

Commissioner Hall. I would say yes, especially when you have 

large changes in consumer confidence. By far the most important 

thing in the economy is consumer spending. It is 70 percent of the 

economy. A good portion of the rest of the economy depends upon 

consumer spending. 

So it is very significant if consumer confidence falls, or starts to 

rise, especially if it is rising from levels that we have seen lately. 

That is potentially a significant thing for the future. 

Representative Cummings. So let’s do some addition here. We 

have got a reduction in the rate of lost jobs, and of course here recently we had a spike in consumer confidence. You’re aware of 

that? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Cummings. Can we expect this good news to 

show up in unemployment numbers in the next few months? I 

mean, is that a reasonable expectation? Or is there any history of 

that kind of thing happening? Because, again we are trying to 

make sure the American—we want to give the American people an 

19 

accurate picture. I don’t want it too rosy; don’t want it too—I just 

want it to be accurate. 

Commissioner Hall. Right. 

Representative Cummings. As best we can be that way, of 

course. 

Commissioner Hall. I can say it this way. If consumer confidence leads to stronger consumer spending, that will lead to an 

improvement in the labor market. 

Representative Cummings. And are the effects on consumer 

confidence confined to households that directly experience job loss? 

Commissioner Hall. No, it’s not. It’s—there’s a cycle when you 

start a recession where consumer spending goes down. Then you 

start to have job loss. And the job loss means further reduction in 

consumer spending. So there’s this cycle downward. 

Well there is also a cycle that can occur upwards. If consumer 

confidence and spending increases, then that slows the job loss and 

maybe gets the job gain. The job gain then means higher consumer 

spending. So you have this cycle working backwards. 

Representative Cummings. So I mean to summarize what you 

just said, it sounds like we are moving in the right direction, 

maybe not as fast as we would like to, but at least we are moving 

in the right direction? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Cummings. And how high would—you know, 

we have got the slow down in job loss but we have got an increase 

in unemployment. At what point does that—would you think that 

we would begin to see the unemployment come down in relationship to the job loss? I mean, what kind of numbers would you need 

to see for that to be the case? 

Commissioner Hall. The way to think about it is we do need 

to see enough job growth to match the growth in the labor force, 

the growth in the population. So if we get job growth with something like 125,000 jobs a month, that is consistent with a constant 

unemployment rate. 

Representative Cummings. I see. 

Commissioner Hall. So we need to get it somewhere above that 

to start seeing the unemployment rate going down. 

Representative Cummings. I see. My time has expired. Mr. 

Brady. 

Representative Brady. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

You noted a moment ago the states with the highest unemployment rate, which brings to mind a report, a review of the stimulus 

spending done by USA Today recently where it said basically the 

states hit hardest by the recession has received only a few of the 

government’s first stimulus contracts, even though the glut of new 

federal spending was meant to target places where the economic 

pain has been particularly severe. 

A review of the nearly $4 billion in contracts that have been 

awarded by the massive stimulus package, according to this report 

and review, the government has spent only about $7.42 per person 

in states with high unemployment—the economies are worse there. 

North Dakota, with the lowest unemployment rate, has received 

about $26 per person. 

20 

So apparently those contracts are not going to the states that 

need it the most. That is consistent with a review by the Associated 

Press that pointed out here recently that states are planning to 

spend 50 percent more per person in areas with low unemployment 

than areas with the highest unemployment, to quote the AP. The 

early trend in the analysis runs counter to expectations raised by 

the President that road and infrastructure money from the historic 

$787 billion stimulus plan would create jobs in the areas most devastated by layoffs. 

Does your analysis show in those high unemployment states, the 

ones that are struggling the most, that there has been an impact 

from these stimulus dollars? Is there anything, again going back to 

your numbers, is there anything in here that confirms or denies 

this type of analysis? 

Commissioner Hall. We wouldn’t be able to tell. 

Representative Brady. The reason I ask—and I do think it is 

important to go to the numbers—is people back home really are 

struggling. Texas has a better economy than most, but we are feeling it as well. You talk to the retailers, they are not seeing an increase in consumption spending. 

There are some activities in construction due to the infrastructure dollars, which we should have done far greater investment 

there than we did in squandering some of the money in the stimulus, but the reason I think it is important to go to the facts are 

that folks back home just want to know the truth. 

You know, they hear the President’s Director of the Budget, 

Peter Orszag, tell CNN that the effects of the stimulus would be 

felt in weeks to months. Larry Summers, Director of the National 

Economic Council, told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer: You’ll see effects begin 

almost immediately. 

Christina Romer, in addition, along with the Vice President 

claimed 150,000 jobs have already been created. Said, we will turn 

the corner and we’ll start adding jobs. 

Then we’ve got the Press Secretary for the President saying the 

stimulus has already started to save and create jobs. The stimulus 

has already started to save and create jobs. 

Yet, when you look at the numbers they just don’t seem to bear 

that out. The unemployment rate being probably the most dramatic 

comparison of the claims of the Administration in the real economy. 

As you bring reports to us in the future, is it possible for you to 

do deeper analysis on the effects of the stimulus, or of targeting 

those states with the higher unemployment rate so we can see if 

there is some impact that we ought to be encouraged by? And 

again, no spin. Just facts. How do we get to those facts? 

Commissioner Hall. Yeah. We just aren’t geared up, and it’s 

really not our mission to do that sort of analysis. We are—to be 

honest, we are fully occupied just counting the number of jobs 

month by month. To put it in perspective, we are talking about 

130- to 135 million payroll jobs that we are measuring every month 

here. So we just could not try to figure out the effects of the stimulus package in that. 

21 

As far as the states, obviously we produce the state-level data, 

but identifying the impact of some specific policy we really couldn’t 

do. 

Representative Brady. Okay. Well I appreciate the honesty on 

that. You talked about health care, you know, again a growing 

need in our country. Did government employment increase or decline this month? 

Commissioner Hall. It was roughly flat. It declined by about 7 

million. I can tell you, actually, for what it’s worth, last month we 

got a bump of about 63—I’m sorry 7 thousand; I said 7 million. 

Census added about 63,000 employees last month—— 

Representative Brady. That would be a bump, 7 million. 

[Laughter.] 

Commissioner Hall [continuing]. Yes. 

Representative Brady. We got a bump last month because of 

the Census. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. Actually we lost about 18,000 because 

of Census this month and the U.S. Postal Service lost 13,000. So 

we took away, in fact all the decline in government employment 

was from Census. 

Representative Brady. The losses, the 21,000 jobs lost from 

the auto manufacturing, that will be reflected in the future in the 

manufacturing sector? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Brady. The jobs lost—last question—the jobs 

lost from dealerships being closed is reflected in the services? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, and under Retail Trade we’ve got 

Auto Dealerships. 

Representative Brady. Okay. Great. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

Representative Cummings. Thank you. Mr. Casey. 

Senator Casey. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

Just a brief comment on some of the points that Congressman 

Brady was making. At some point we are all going to know. We are 

going to know whether this recovery bill worked or didn’t work, 

and you are either on one side or the other in terms of supporting 

it, and I am glad that I voted for it. And I believe that we are seeing a positive impact from it. 

Can you back up that on every point with numbers? Probably 

not. But we are seeing it on the ground. There are projects started. 

There are jobs being created. But it is still kind of early to tell 

whether or not the recovery bill has had the impact we want it to 

have, but we will know soon enough. 

There will be a history written of this time period, and one side 

or the other is going to be mostly right or mostly wrong. So I think 

it is a little early, but I know there is a debate about that. 

I wanted to go back to one point in the unemployment rate for 

minorities, but in particular minority women as opposed to the 

White female number. 

The unemployment rate for White females, do you have that 

number, as compared to African American women and Hispanic 

women? 

Commissioner Hall. Sure. The unemployment rate for White 

women is 6.9 percent. 

22 

Senator Casey. 6.9. 

Commissioner Hall. For African American women it is 11.2 

percent. 

Senator Casey. Okay, and how about, is the Hispanic female 

number 10.5? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Senator Casey. Okay, so we’re seeing a gap there between— 

similar to the gap on overall White versus African American versus 

Hispanic. It is reflected as well in the female worker numbers. 

Is there anything in the data that jumps out that explains that? 

Or is that typical in terms of the month to month or year to year 

job numbers? Because it is troubling that we have double figure 

numbers for minorities, double figure numbers both for minorities 

generally and in particular for subsets of that, as opposed to White 

male or female workers. But there may not be anything that you 

can tell us, but I was just curious to see if there is anything in the 

numbers that jumps out to explain that or to put that into context. 

Commissioner Hall. No. In fact, that gap is typical during economic expansions, during recessions; it’s just a gap that exists. And 

in fact during recessions the rise in unemployment for the minority 

groups typically rises further. So I don’t have a ready explanation 

for it. 

Senator Casey. Sure. No, thank you very much. 

Representative Cummings. Ms. Klobuchar. 

Senator Klobuchar. Thank you very much. One other area that 

we talked about last month, Commissioner Hall, was the area of 

Veterans unemployment. I think it is startling for people of the 

country to know that those that come back in the last few years, 

actually the unemployment rate of Veterans since the Gulf War is 

higher than the unemployment rate for people who have not served 

our country. 

And part of that I believe is because when they leave they have 

a job, and then because they are gone, as the unemployment rate 

is going up and jobs are going away, it is harder for them to get 

a job when they come back. 

I know that last month the unemployment rate for Veterans 

since the Gulf War was 10.3 percent, which includes the current 

Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. What is that rate now? 

Commissioner Hall. For May, the Gulf War era Veterans’ unemployment rate is 11.4 percent. 

Senator Klobuchar. So it actually, did it go up from last month 

then? 

Commissioner Hall. I think that’s correct. I don’t have that 

data right in front of me. That’s probably correct, but we can check 

on that if you like. 

Senator Klobuchar. Yes, could you? I would just like to see 

how much it has gone up each month. Because I think it is a big 

concern that we keep having that happen. 

Chairman Cummings asked you about young people, and what 

you say to young people about the foreseeable future, and I do appreciate some of the numbers that we have seen. And we have seen 

some that, as you say, we may be on the way to good news? Were 

those your words, something like that, in terms of some of the bottoming out here? 

23 

But one of the things I know we have talked about before is the 

unemployment rate for different degrees of education. So when we 

are talking to young people, I think it is important for them to understand what is the unemployment rate for high school dropouts 

this month? 

Commissioner Hall. 15.5 percent. 

Senator Klobuchar. 15.5 percent. And then what’s the unemployment rate for high school graduates? 

Commissioner Hall. 10 percent. 

Senator Klobuchar. And then what is the unemployment rate 

for college graduates? 

Commissioner Hall. 4.8 percent. 

Senator Klobuchar. That is quite a difference. And I know one 

of the President’s main focus here has been, I think he said that 

students should get at least one year of college, one year post-high 

school, or some kind of an advanced education. So you see this dramatic change from 15.5 to 10 percent to 4.8 percent, if you have 

a college degree. So there is a full difference going from 15.5, if you 

haven’t graduated from high school, to 4.8 percent if you’ve graduated from college. Is that correct? 

Commissioner Hall. That’s correct. 

Senator Klobuchar. The other thing that I’ve noticed as we 

look at some glimmers of hope here, we talked about our unemployment rate in Minnesota but the Commerce Department recently reported that pre-tax profits at U.S. corporations rose from $42.6 billion in the first quarter, to $1.3 trillion—the first quarterly increase after six straight declines. 

Were you aware of those numbers? 

Commissioner Hall. No, I wasn’t. 

Senator Klobuchar. This just came out recently. We do know 

that profitable companies are more likely to hire than those that 

are faltering. Have you seen this before in the rates for unemployment when you have more profitable companies that you will, not 

exactly that same month, but you may see more hiring in the future? 

Commissioner Hall. I’m not sure at the company level, but I 

know on the national numbers you do tend to see, during early 

parts of an expansion, you do see the profits going up prior to the 

employment. But the employment does lag a little bit. But it almost always goes in that order. 

Senator Klobuchar. Right. So that this fact that we have seen 

some better profitability rates for our companies, which is as I said 

it is the first—it is the first quarterly increase after six straight 

quarter declines. So that is after like a year-and-a-half. So this 

could be a good sign, if you believe my numbers, which I believe 

are accurate. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Senator Klobuchar. All right. And I know that Chairman Cummings brought up the consumer confidence. We talked about that 

a lot last month, because we have seen these increases in unemployment, but at the same time the consumer confidence number 

is going up, which may again help with people buying things? Is 

that right? 

Commissioner Hall. That’s correct. 

24 

Senator Klobuchar. So as we look at the glimmers of hope 

here, to summarize just from my perspective, we have the fact that 

the companies seem to be—not in every sector, but some of these 

companies seem to be evening out, or actually seeing some improvement. 

We have consumer confidence up. 

What are the other glimmers of hope that you see? 

Commissioner Hall. I think to me a lot of it revolves around 

consumer spending. Even the profitability of companies relies on 

consumer spending picking up. 

Like I say, having the consumer confidence tick up is a good 

sign. The consumer confidence doesn’t always track well with consumer spending, but it does for major changes. 

That’s the sort of thing I think that I find encouraging. I don’t 

know how I would judge the housing market, but that is going to 

be an important thing probably in the recovery going forward. 

Senator Klobuchar. Yes. Do you have any statistics on that? 

Because actually I had some realtors in my office from Minnesota, 

like 30 of them, and they had been very glum every time they came 

in every six months, and suddenly they were in very upbeat moods 

compared to how they were before. And they said that they were 

starting to sell a number of first-time homes. They said the tax credit was incredibly helpful, the $8000 tax 

credit; that is, as we reach the end of the year, that a lot of younger people or first-time home buyers were starting to buy. You 

would most likely not have those statistics, or do you? 

Commissioner Hall. Yeah, you know I don’t have the statistics 

right in front of me but I have a rough notion that certainly the 

inventory of new home sales is still pretty high. I think it’s something like a year’s worth of inventory. But I think it is kind of like 

the jobs growth. It is not as high as it was, but it is still high. 

Senator Klobuchar. Exactly. 

Commissioner Hall. So I haven’t looked at the numbers really 

carefully lately, but my general impression is that I agree with you, 

that there maybe are some indications that the decline in housing 

is slowing. 

Senator Klobuchar. All right. Well thank you very much, Commissioner Hall. 

Representative Cummings. Just one last few questions of Mr. 

Hall. According to a study by the National Center for Public Policy 

and Higher Education, I just want to piggyback on some of the excellent questions of Ms. Klobuchar. 

The rising cost of college even before the recession threatened to 

put higher education out of reach for most Americans. The report 

found that published college tuition and fees increased 439 percent 

from 1982 to 2007, while median income rose 147 percent. 

Student borrowing has more than doubled in the last decade, and 

students from lower income families on the average get smaller 

grants from the colleges they attend than students from more affluent families. 

The New York Times recently reported that in the face of shrinking endowments colleges are looking more favorably upon wealthier 

students as they make their admissions decisions this year. Even 

institutions that have pledged to admit students regardless of fiVerDate Nov 24 2008 09:23 Mar 18, 2010 Jkt 054513 PO 00000 Frm 00028 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C:\DOCS\54513.TXT SHAUN PsN: DPROCT
25 

nancial need are finding ways of increasing the number of students 

who will pay the full cost of tuition. And state and local government budget deficits will probably mean that state college and community college tuitions will have to rise. 

In light of the questions Ms. Klobuchar asked about dropouts, 

high school graduates, and college graduates, given the factors I 

just stated, isn’t it likely that income disparities will grow if only 

wealthier families can afford to send their children to college? 

Commissioner Hall. The benefits to education, people with 

higher education have higher wages, they have lower unemployment rates, they have high labor force participation rates, that’s 

been going on for decades and that is not likely to change in the 

future. 

So—— 

Representative Cummings. So in other words, the more education you have—— 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Cummings [continuing]. The less you are likely to lose your job. 

Commissioner Hall. Correct. 

Representative Cummings. And was that true in the 1980s 

and 1970s? 

Commissioner Hall. It was. It’s been true for decades. 

Representative Cummings. And if workers who are less educated are more likely to lose their jobs currently and therefore less 

able to be able to send their children to college, what does that 

mean about income disparities for the next generations, with all 

other things being equal? 

Commissioner Hall. Sure. Well obviously uneven access to education means you have uneven outcomes in the labor market. I 

think that is a safe thing to say, and that will probably continue 

to be true. 

Representative Cummings. Very well. Do you have anything 

else, Mr. Brady? 

Representative Brady. No, sir. 

Representative Cummings. Ms. Klobuchar. 

Senator Klobuchar. No, I don’t. 

Representative Cummings. I want to thank you, Mr. Hall, 

very much. I think Ms. Klobuchar pretty much summarized it. It 

is good to hear some news that is not going in the negative direction. We certainly are—you know, you have given us a few things 

to feel a bit optimistic about, and hopefully when we see you next 

month we will have even better news. But thank you, very much. 

Commissioner Hall. Thank you. 

Representative Cummings. We’re adjourned. 

[Whereupon, at 10:44 a.m., Friday, June 5, 2009, the hearing 

was adjourned.] 

(27) 

SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD 

28 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS

Good morning. I would like to thank Chair Maloney for holding this hearing. 

I also welcome Commissioner Hall and his colleagues from the Bureau of Labor 

Statistics to brief us on the most recent employment data. 

This morning’s release reported May job losses totaling 345,000—almost half of 

the losses in recent months, but an unemployment rate of 9.4 percent—a jump of 

half a percentage from the previous month. 

Adding up discouraged workers and part-time workers who cannot find full time 

employment, the unemployment rate jumps to 16.4 percent, the highest rate since 

the government started collecting this information in 1994. 

However, it was also announced recently that the continuing jobless claims for the 

week ending May 23rd fell, a consumer confidence index experienced a small uptick, 

and the European Central Bank held interest rates steady yesterday, signaling expectations that the global economy may have bottomed out. 

I am encouraged by marginal improvements like consumer confidence, but even 

this good sign is accompanied by a sobering counterpoint. 

Increased consumer spending has yet to translate into actual spending by consumers or businesses. Rather, families are saving, and I don’t blame them. 

They see that more than 1 in 4 unemployed workers has been unemployed for 

over six months, and that the median duration of unemployment is now 14.9 weeks, 

a record high since the series started in 1967. 

The cumulative effects of the recession—17 consecutive months of job loss, totaling 6 million jobs—have left these ordinary, hard-working Americans on precarious 

footing. 

When a worker is laid off, economists say the person experiences an ‘‘income 

shock.’’ This is a vast understatement. 

Now unemployed, families must work through any savings they have accrued to 

pay bills and continue to feed their children; and then as home values fall and mortgages go unpaid, they are suddenly looking foreclosure in the face. 

While the foreclosure crisis started with homes that fell victim to plunging values, 

and then moved to the subprime sector and borrowers facing interest rate hikes, 

now prime borrowers have been affected as well. 

The New York Times wrote on May 24th that this ‘‘third wave’’ of foreclosures can 

be attributed in large part to the rising tide of unemployment. 

Fortunately, for many homeowners, some degree of help is available. We have 

strong mortgage modification programs in place that allow homeowners to decrease 

their payments and work out solutions to stay in their homes. 

For the unemployed, however, when home values fall, a mortgage modification 

will take them only so far. What a modification cannot do is bring back an income 

or health insurance. 

So, without new and creative ways to help the unemployed, these Americans may 

still lose their homes. 

We also know that a job loss doesn’t just affect the individual employee and his 

or her home. Surrounding home values fall with each foreclosure, and some cities 

have seen more than 100 foreclosures every day. 

Further, our safety nets are stretched thin, and that is all some folks have. 

I read yesterday in USA Today that 1 of every 6 dollars of Americans’ income is 

from unemployment, social security, or other public benefits. Further, ProPublica reported that 14 states have already gone through available unemployment reserve 

funds. So, the effects of unemployment are being felt in so many places, by all of 

us. Accordingly—this Congress and President Obama have taken decisive action 

against the recession through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, as well 

as legislation addressing predatory mortgage lending and unfair credit card practices. 

We are also helping people at the local level. Tomorrow, in Baltimore, we are putting over 200 borrowers together with 19 lenders to try to work out mortgage solutions. 

I hope every one who shows up can save his or her home. But I suspect that will 

not be the case, as the unemployed still may not qualify for modifications. 

Knowing this, I look forward to the testimony of Dr. Hall, as we must understand 

exactly where we are in this crisis and just how far we have to go. 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE KEVIN BRADY, SENIOR HOUSE

REPUBLICAN

I am pleased to join in welcoming Commissioner Hall before the Committee this 

morning. 

29 

The increase in the unemployment rate to a level of 9.4 percent is disturbing for 

several reasons. First, the higher unemployment rate reflects greater hardship for 

American workers and their families. Second, the higher unemployment rate, along 

with other economic data, reflects the continuing weakness in the economy. Third, 

the higher unemployment rate underscores the unrealistic nature of the Administration’s economic assumptions based on the idea that the stimulus spending would cap 

rising unemployment. 

The payroll employment decline reported today also shows that the economy continues to contract. The 345,000 drop in May payroll employment is a significant 

monthly job loss and is broadly based in many industries. Although the overall pace 

of job loss was not as terrible as in recent months, manufacturing continued to suffer large employment declines. 

There is some tentative evidence suggesting that the economy may bottom out in 

coming months. For example, financial market conditions have improved, some 

measures of manufacturing activity have stabilized, and some data related to housing and construction are less negative. However, measures to prevent foreclosures 

are not working well, and re-default rates are very high, with more loan losses to 

come. Business investment has collapsed, and commercial real estate continues to 

be under stress. Consumer spending is weak, and exports are falling as many of our 

major trading partners also experience recession. 

I continue to be concerned about the Administration’s unrealistic economic assumptions which were the basis for the President’s budget proposal. The Economist 

magazine called these economic assumptions ‘‘dangerous’’ because they understate 

the true cost of the Administration’s deficit spending and debt accumulation. Unfortunately, according to CBO, Administration policies will triple the national debt to 

a level of $17.3 trillion by 2019. This avalanche of government deficits and debt is 

one reason long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, are on the rise. 

A central problem is that the Administration assumed that its stimulus spending 

spree would significantly improve the economy. For example, last January two top 

Administration economists projected that the unemployment rate would not exceed 

8.0 percent in 2009 or 2010 if the stimulus was enacted. The Administration followed up by forecasting an average unemployment rate of 8.1 percent for all of 2009. 

However, the current level of the unemployment rate above 9 percent is enough to 

show that the Administration’s assumptions about the positive impact of the stimulus were wrong. If the Administration’s forecast were internally consistent, this 

would also indicate that GDP will be lower than projected. 

An economic upturn should occur by next year, if only due to the huge amounts 

of money and credit injected into the economy by the Federal Reserve. However, the 

economic recovery probably will be quite weak, and not consistent with the White 

House’s rosy scenario for 2010. What will be the sources of economic growth next 

year? 

With many households forced to pay down debt, a surge in consumption is not 

likely. Excessive levels of government spending and debt are already rattling financial markets, so much more government stimulus spending is not a feasible option. 

U.S. exports may be constrained by weakness in other countries, and by retaliation 

against our trade policies. That leaves investment as a main source of growth, but 

how many will undertake long-term investments when facing a tidal wave of new 

taxes, entitlement spending, and inflation? Future economic growth will rely heavily 

on investment, but more taxes, government borrowing, regulation, and inflation all 

will hit investors very hard. 

Government is not evil, and up to a point provides more benefits than costs, but 

beyond this point becomes counterproductive. Policymakers should understand that 

excessive government does have the potential to choke off healthy economic and employment growth. If the long-term rate of economic growth is reduced from 3 percent 

to 2 percent or below, the result will be much slower job growth, and higher levels 

of unemployment. Congress should wake up to the damage that it is inflicting and 

stop enacting legislation that only increases the burden of government on the economy. 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF KEITH HALL, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR

STATISTICS

Madam Chair and Members of the Committee: 

Thank you for the opportunity to discuss the employment and unemployment data 

that we released this morning. 

Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May. Job losses had averaged 643,000 per month during the prior 6 months. In May, the unemployment rate 

rose from 8.9 to 9.4 percent. Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll 

30 

employment has fallen by 6.0 million, and the unemployment rate has increased by 

4.5 percentage points. 

Job losses continued to be widespread in May, but the rate of decline moderated 

in construction and several service-providing industries. Large job losses continued 

in the manufacturing sector (¥156,000), with employment declines in nearly all 

component industries. Employment fell sharply in motor vehicles and parts 

(¥30,000), machinery (¥26,000), and fabricated metals (¥19,000). Since the start 

of the recession, manufacturing employment has decreased by 1.8 million, accounting for 3 out of 10 jobs lost during this downturn. 

Construction employment declined by 59,000 in May, half the average of the previous 6 months. Job losses moderated in the private service-providing industries, 

with employment falling by 113,000 in May compared with an average monthly decline of 356,000 in the prior 6 months. Employment was little changed in temporary 

help, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality, following large declines in recent 

months. 

Elsewhere in the service-providing sector, the health care industry added 24,000 

jobs in May. This was about in line with the trend thus far in 2009. 

In May, average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers in 

the private sector were up by 2 cents to $18.54. Over the past 12 months, average 

hourly earnings have risen by 3.1 percent. From April 2008 to April 2009, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers declined by 1.2 

percent. 

Turning to measures from the survey of households, the unemployment rate increased from 8.9 to 9.4 percent over the month. The number of unemployed rose by 

787,000 to 14.5 million. Since the recession began, the jobless rate has increased by 

4.5 percentage points, and the number of unemployed persons has grown by 7.0 million. 

Among the unemployed, the number who have been out of work 27 weeks or more 

increased by 268,000 in May to 3.9 million. These long-term unemployed represented 2.5 percent of the labor force, the highest proportion since 1983. 

Over the month, the employment-population ratio edged down to 59.7 percent, the 

lowest level since October 1984. Since the recession began, the employment-population ratio has fallen by 3.0 percentage points. 

Among the employed, the number of persons working part time who would prefer 

full-time work was little changed for the second consecutive month. At 9.1 million 

in May, involuntary part-time employment was 4.4 million higher than at the start 

of the recession. 

Among those outside the labor force—that is, persons neither working nor looking 

for work—the number of discouraged workers was 792,000 in May, up from 400,000 

a year earlier. These individuals are not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. 

In summary, nonfarm payroll employment fell by 345,000 in May, compared with 

the average monthly decline of 643,000 for the previous 6 months. While job losses 

continued to be widespread, declines moderated in construction and in a number of 

service-providing industries. The unemployment rate rose by half a percentage point 

to 9.4 percent. 

My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your questions. 

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PREPARED STATEMENT OF SENATOR ROBERT P. CASEY, JR. 

Mister Chairman, thank you for holding this hearing today on this very important 

monthly jobs report. 

Although the numbers of Americans applying for unemployment benefits have 

continued to decrease in recent weeks, the overall employment picture is bleak with 

350,000 jobs lost in May, bringing the total to 7 million jobs lost since the recession 

began in December 2007. A monthly job loss of 350,000 may look better compared 

to the 700,000 lost in March but we are still shedding hundreds of thousands of jobs 

a month. 

Furthermore, once unemployed, people are struggling tremendously to find work. 

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics May report, of the 14.5 million unemployed, 3.9 million—over one-quarter—were ‘‘long-term unemployed,’’ meaning that 

they have been out of work and searching for a new job for at least six months. 

Of those out of work for more than six months, over one-half were unemployed for 

a full year or longer. 

We have seen that the employment situation is especially challenging within certain demographic groups. The BLS reports over the last year have shown that rising 

unemployment is affecting minority populations in particular. The unemployment 

rate for African Americans is 15.0 percent while the rate for Hispanics rose from 

11.3 percent to 12.7 in the last month alone—well above the unemployment rate for 

whites, which is 8.6 percent. I am concerned that relief from this recession will be 

all too slow for those most likely to be impacted. 

Given these startling facts, we need to take action now on two tracks. First, we 

need to continue to take the immediate steps necessary to stabilize the housing market, thaw the credit markets, and spur job creation. Passage of the Recovery and 

Reinvestment Act was an essential component of our strategy to create and retain 

good paying jobs. In the long term, we need to pass healthcare legislation this summer, strengthen job training programs and make sure that the doors to higher education remain open. 

Æ