NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

NREL Planning & Analysis

NREL Industry Growth 

Forum

Dr. Douglas J. Arent

Director, Analysis Center

November 2009 

Denver, CO

NREL/PR-6A2-47122

Insights and Opportunities: 

Technologies, Policies, and Markets for 

Clean Energy Solutions 
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Integrated technical and economic analyses that advance the understanding of the 

value of technology in the context of dynamic global, national, and local markets, policies, energy resources and loads, and infrastructure.

Strategic Energy Analysis

Analyze system performance and 

technology interfaces in the context of 

the overall system

System

Assess resource availability and 

characteristics

Resource

Analyze technology and 

component performance, cost, and 

other attributes

Technology/Component

Analyze benefits and impacts of 

programs, portfolios, and policy options

Energy-Economic Market Characterization
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Driving Innovation In Energy Analysis Uncertainty

Time

Highly Certain

NOW

Site Specific

Highly UNCertain

Decades to Millennia

National to Global
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

OpenPV – PV Market Information
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

IMBY – In My Back Yard

Rooftop PV or Small Wind System

For Feasibility Analysis
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Segmentation and Geospatial Insights
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Policy analysis example: 

PV grid-parity analysis

• Analysis for 

1000 largest 

utilities in the 

U.S.

• Currently PV 

is only 

attractive 

where there is 

a combination 

of high 

electricity 

prices and 

incentives.

2007 residential PV and electricity price 

differences with existing incentives
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

• Attractive in 

about 250 of 

1,000 largest 

utilities, which 

provide ~37% 

of U.S. 

residential 

electricity sales.

• 85% of sales (in 

nearly 870 

utilities) are 

projected to 

have a price 

difference of 

less than 5 

¢/kWh.

2015 residential without incentives and moderate

increase in electricity prices

Policy analysis example: 

PV grid-parity analysis, 2015
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Policy analysis example: 

PV grid-parity analysis; Alternative Scenario

• Attractive in 

about 450 of 

1,000 largest 

utilities, which 

provide ~50% 

of U.S. 

residential 

electricity sales. 

• 91% of sales (in 

nearly 950 

utilities) are 

projected to 

have a price 

difference of 

less than 5 

¢/kWh.

2015 residential without incentives and 

aggressive increase in electricity prices
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Results Inputs

SAM

Component 

Parameters

Financial 

Assumptions

Financial Metrics: 

LCOE, IRR, NPV, 

Payback, etc.

Weather Data

Costs

Value Differentiation:

Systems and LCOE Example: Solar Advisor Model

Incentives

Utility Rate 

Structure

Hourly Simulation

Financial Model

Sensitivity 

Analysis

Detail:

Hourly Energy 

Flows, Cash Flow

Performance 

Metrics:

Capacity Factor, 

Annual Output

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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Sample Outputs

12
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Load Requirements

Initial Capacity

Load Growth Forecast

Technology Cost/ 

Performance Forecasts

Fuel Price Forecasts

State/Federal 

Rules/Incentives

Financing Assumptions

System Requirements

Region Definitions

Time-slice Definitions

Fuel Demand Forecasts

Electricity Price Forecasts

Resource Data

Installed Capacity

Fuel Prices

Technology Cost/ 

Performance Data

Wind Variability 

Parameters

New Generating Capacity

Dispatch

Transmission Data

New Transmission 

Capacity

Electricity Price

Fuel Usage

Transmission 

Requirements

ReEDS 

Optimization

Geospatial EnergyEconomics: Systems Opportunities 
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

ReEDS Regions
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Wind Resource in ReEDS
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Wind Potential (8-12% Losses)

30-36% Capacity Factor: 100 – 42 GW

36-41% Capacity Factor: 2 – 0 GW

Total: 102 – 42 GW

Wind Potential (8-12% Losses)

30-36% Capacity Factor: 123 – 161 GW

36-41% Capacity Factor: 99 – 37 GW

42-46% Capacity Factor: 1 – 0 GW

Total: 223 – 198 GW
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Evolution of Electric Generation 

under Carbon Constraint
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Modeling

“The Grid”

Loads

Reserve Margins

Ancillary Services
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

PHEVs* Can Increase Wind Penetration

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GW

Base Case

PHEV-20

PHEV-60

* Assumes 50% PHEV-V2G penetration by 2050
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Federal Stimulus Impact on Renewables

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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Feed-in Tariffs in the U.S.

One state with enacted FIT legislation based on avoided cost (CA)

One state with enacted FIT legislation based on cost of generation (VT)

Three states with enacted utility-based FITs (OR, WA, WI)

Seven states (incl. 4 munis) with proposed RE cost-based FIT legislation

Source: NREL June 2009

Gainesville, 

FL 

(approved)

Los Angeles, 

CA 

(proposed)

Palm Desert, 

CA 

(proposed)

Rhode 

Island 

(proposed)

Note: Gainesville Regional Utilities, has approved the first U.S. cost-based FIT for solar PV.

In May 2009, Vermont enacted the first statewide FIT policy based on the RE project cost. 

Santa 

Monica, CA 

(proposed) Long Island, 

NY 

(proposed)

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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Recent Publications
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Insights & Opportunities

• Technology, Policy and Business Model 

Innovations will drive opportunity

• System Solutions hold high promise. 

– IT Enabled: Smart Grid...

– Geospatial Diversity

– Interactions of Technologies

– Cross Sector Opportunities: Transport & 

Power

– Load Shifting & Storage