Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | December 2016 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Missouri River Basin 

December 2016 

National - Significant Events for September - November 2016

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Drought Conditions

Regional - Climate Overview for September - November 2016

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

September 1 - November 30, 2016

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

September 1 - November 30, 2016

Highlights for the Basin

It was one of the warmest falls on record for the 

Missouri River Basin with each state in the region 

ranking in the top 5 warmest falls, including 

Colorado and Kansas (warmest); Missouri, 

Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and 

Wyoming (2nd); and Montana (4th).

Many interesting temperature records were 

set this fall. Dodge City, KS had its latest 100°F+ 

day on record with a high temperature of 101°F 

on October 17th. This was also the highest 

October temperature on record for that location. 

Meanwhile, Boulder, Colorado Springs, and 

Denver all set/tied their highest November 

temperature on record on the 16th. On that day, 

Lincoln, NE also had its latest 80°F day on record. 

Three tornadoes were confirmed on November 

27th in south-central Nebraska, which was the 

first time that more than one tornado occurred in 

the month of November in the state.

Some locations had their latest first freeze on 

record. For example, temperatures finally hit 

freezing on November 12th in Manhattan, KS. This 

freeze was nearly a month later than average, and 

the latest on record.

Extreme warmth coupled with low 

precipitation drove drought development 

across portions of the Basin this fall. Rapid 

development of drought is atypical during this 

season across the Plains; however, abnormally 

warm weather caused soils to dry more than 

usual. Meanwhile, heavy rains early in the 

season helped improve drought conditions 

across portions of Montana, northern 

Wyoming, and western South Dakota. Current 

drought conditions in the region are largely 

expected to persist through the winter.

Fall precipitation across the region was 

characterized by extremes in both wetness and 

dryness. A large area encompassing Montana, 

northwestern Wyoming, and western North 

Dakota received at least 150% of normal 

precipitation, while portions of eastern 

Colorado, western Kansas, southeastern 

Wyoming, and southwestern South Dakota 

received less than 50% of normal precipitation. 

Snowpack accumulations in the Rockies were 

off to a slow start, but conditions could change 

significantly as the snow season progresses.

This fall was unusually warm across the 

Missouri River Basin with most locations 

ending the season in the 4-6°F above-normal 

range. Temperatures each month of the season 

were above normal, with high minimum 

temperatures driving much of the warmth. 

In terms of departures, November was the 

most extreme with temperatures ranging from 

4°F above normal in the south to 16°F above 

normal in the north. Interestingly, this fall was 

the warmest on record for the U.S., beating 

out the record that was set only last year.

The average U.S. temperature during November was 48.0°F, 6.3°F above average and the second 

warmest on record. The autumn U.S. temperature was 57.6°F, 4.1°F above average and the warmest 

on record. The November precipitation total was 1.73 inches, 0.50 inch below the average. The 

autumn precipitation total was 6.88 inches, which is average for the period.

Please Note: Material provided in this map was compiled from NOAA’s State of the Climate Reports. 

For more information please visit: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc

U.S. Drought Monitor Class Change

3 Months
Regional - Impacts for September - November 2016

Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | December 2016

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for January - March 2017 MO River Basin Partners

:#regionalclimateoutlooks

High Plains Regional Climate Center

www.hprcc.unl.edu

National Drought Mitigation Center

www.drought.unl.edu

National Integrated Drought Information System

www.drought.gov

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Weather Service - Central Region

www.crh.noaa.gov/crh

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Missouri River Basin Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

North Central Climate Science Center

http://nccsc.colostate.edu

South Dakota State University Extension

http://igrow.org

American Association of State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - Missouri River Basin 

Water Management Division

www.usace.army.mil

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Regional Climate Hubs

www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/regional_hubs.htm

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

www.usbr.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area

www.usgs.gov/water

Western Governors’ Association

www.westgov.org

Above: (Top) Cottonwood Fire on October 17th, photo courtesy South Dakota 

Division of Wildland Fire; (Middle) aerial view of flooding along Milk River in 

northern Montana, photo courtesy Steve Stanley; and (Bottom) poorly emerged 

winter wheat at K-State research plots in November, photo courtesy A.J. Foster, 

K-State Research and Extension, Extension Agronomy eUpdate. 

Heavy Rains Bring Flooding to Montana

Heavy rains in early October caused flooding in northern Montana 

along the Milk River, a tributary of the Missouri River. Although impacts 

were generally limited to road closures and flooded fields, the timing 

was unusual. According to the National Weather Service in Glasgow, 

MT, similar flooding events in the area had not occurred in the fall for 

at least 30 years. Ultimately, this October was the wettest on record for 

the state of Montana and numerous individual locations received over 

400% of normal precipitation. By the end of the fall, many individual 

locations already ranked in the top 10 wettest years on record.

Large Fires Impact Region

Although fires during the fall season are not uncommon, there were 

noteworthy fires that impacted the region this fall. The Cottonwood Fire 

in western South Dakota burned 41,360 acres in what was the largest 

October wildfire in the state’s history. The fire burned private, state, 

and national grassland property, and also destroyed hay and cattle. It 

is worth noting that this was the 5th largest wildfire on record for the 

state. 

Isolated Impacts to Agriculture

Overall, it was an outstanding year for row crops in the U.S., with 

record yields projected for corn, soybeans, and sugar beets in many 

of the states in the region. Early in the season, high dew points led 

to foggy mornings that slowed soybean harvest, but warm and dry 

conditions later on helped with harvest activities. These conditions 

were not welcome by dryland winter wheat producers as the crop has 

struggled in some areas. 

3-Month Precipitation and 

Temperature Outlooks 

According to the Climate Prediction Center, La 

Niña conditions are present and a transition to 

ENSO-neutral conditions is expected over the 

next few months. 

Through March, above-normal precipitation 

is favored for areas of the northern Rockies, 

Wyoming, and portions of the Dakotas. 

Meanwhile, increased chances for belownormal precipitation exist for southern areas 

of Colorado and Kansas. For temperatures, 

below-normal conditions are favored to the 

north, while above-normal conditions could 

occur across portions of Colorado and Kansas. 

For more information on La Niña in the Basin, 

see: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/pdf/LaNinaMOBasin-2016-Final.pdf

Valid for January - March 2017

EC: Equal chances of above, near or below normal

A: Above normal, B: Below normal

Precipitation Temperature

Soil Moisture 

Conditions

12/13/2016

Modeled soil moisture conditions at the 

start of the winter indicated wet soils across 

central Montana, western Wyoming, and 

northern portions of North Dakota. Drier soils 

were evident for several other areas of the 

Basin, including large areas of Colorado and 

Missouri. Soil moisture at this time of the year 

can be indicative of conditions at the start of 

the spring - given that the soils have already 

frozen. The northern tier of the region should 

be monitored for potential flooding in the 

spring with the combination of wet soils and 

an outlook for above-normal precipitation this 

winter. This map shows the percent of average 

soil moisture conditions from a NOAA model 

called NLDAS.