# Palm oil NODA

– EPA briefing

Dr. Chris Malins, Dr. Stephanie Searle

**28 September 2012**

# Key points

 Spatial modeling/palm expansion

 Yields

 Peat emissions

# Spatial modeling/palm expansion

# The GEOMOD spatial analysis

 Assesses the static state of the palm oil industry in 2001/2003

 Uses this to construct a model for predicting the location of new palm expansion

 Compares the predictions of this model for 2009 to observation

 Decides a factor weighting and is applied to 2022

# Key issues

 **By definition**

, the GEOMOD system is only able to accurately model a situation in which current decision making is comparable to past decision making

 The accuracy of the input maps is questionable (according to EPA)

 Historically, farmers avoided peat soils systematically. This is no longer true.

# Indonesia: backwards looking GEOSAT assessment misses recent trends

**Soil type**  **(ordered largest**  **extent to least**  **extent in 2009)**  **Palm oil**

**Overall in**  **Indonesia P** **r e** **v a** **l e** **n c** **e i** **n 2** **0 0** **1 2** **0 0** **1 r** **a t** **i o** **o f** **p a** **l m** **: o** **v e** **r a** **l l** **2 0** **0 1** **r a** **n k** **i n** **g P** **r e** **v a** **l e** **n c** **e i** **n 2** **0 0** **9 2** **0 0** **9 r** **a t** **i o** **o f** **p a** **l m** **: o** **v e** **r a** **l l** **2 0** **0 9** **r a** **n k** **i n** **g %** **o f** **i n** **c r** **e a** **s e** **2 0** **0 1** **t o** **2 0** **0 9** **R a** **t i** **o o** **f c** **h a** **n g** **e :** **o v** **e r** **a l** **l R** **a n** **k i** **n g** **i n** **c h** **a n** **g e** 

Acrisols 49% 1.04 4 34% 0.72 6

- 39%

- 0.83 9 47%

Gleysols 17% 1.53 2 22% 1.93 1 44% 3.86 2 11% Gleysols

Lithosols 12% 1.06 3 14% 1.22 5 22% 1.99 4 11%

Histosols 9% 0.87 5 13% 1.32 4 35% 3.48 3 10%

Fluvisols 7% 1.79 1 6% 1.74 3 6% 1.5 5 4%

Luvisols 2% 0.62 6 6% 1.83 2 26% 7.64 1 3%

Cambisols 3% 0.44 7 3% 0.42 8 2% 0.33 7 6%

Ferralsols 1% 0.34 8 2% 0.5 7 5% 1.26 6 4%

Nitosols 0% 0.1 9 0% 0.03 9

- 1%

- 0.27 8 3%

# In Malaysia GEOMOD factors such as railroads systematically disfavor Sarawak

# Precipitation becomes a key predictor despite having poor statistics

# Use of distance factors subject to change on a 10 year period

Settlements Roads

Plantations Railoads

# Accuracy

 “The locations of oil palm plantations in the years 2003 and 2009 were supplied in shapefile format to EPA by the Government of Malaysia. The shapefiles contained no metadata and the accuracy of the maps is unknown.”

 A large area has fallen out of production according to the maps. Is this realistic?

 Accuracy concerns make us cautious of relying on differencing

# Expansion of palm plantations on peat 1990

- 2010

# Expansion of palm plantations on peat 1990

- 2010

# Palm plantation on peat soils is accelerating

# We expect a large % of expansion in Sarawak

 Sarawaki Government targets

 Government support in concession allocation

 Cheap Indonesian labor and weak regulatory enforcement

 Much more land available

 Documented recent trend

 According to MPOB, from 2000

- 09 Sarawaki expansion higher than either Peninsular or Sabah (40% vs. 7% in GEOMOD projection)

 Supported by mapping work

# Consistent with other expert opinion

Forest Research Institute Malaysia

# Other comments on GEOMOD

 This may be the one area with relative consensus between environmentalists and the palm industry!

 ABFA: “EPA based its land use change analysis on expansion in Sumatra, although it is w ell know n that expansion is likely to occur in Kalimantan (Borneo). ”

 Neste: “EPA utilized an area expansion model w hich is unable to quantify expansion into new areas”

 Neste: “ Not including ... economic factors is a major draw back of Neste: “ Not including ... economic factors is a major draw the GEOMOD model as it is one of the major factors in the selection of land .”

 MPOB: “Another flaw i n the assumption is the projection of locations for new

p lantations using GEOMOD. The GEOMOD land use change simulation model to project location of future oil palm expansion until 2022 in Peninsular Malaysia is unrealistic going by recent trends and this is a major limitation of using such a model. It has been proven that the GEOMOD method to predict LUC for the future is inaccurate and unreliable as wa s proven in previous cases by ground truthing of GEOMOD data.”

# Yields

# Yield trend in Indonesia

5.0 7.7

5 6 7 8 9

4.8

3.8

0 1 2 3 4 5

Indonesian palm y ield

EPA estimate
10 y ear trend
20 y ear trend ISPO suggestion

# Recent Malaysian yield slippage ignored

“A return to historical trend yield growth is not expected soon, unless and until a major replanting campaign has been completed. The government reports that current annual replanting rates average 3

- 4 per cent of the total national
area, and that it will take approximately 25 years to replant the entire national acreage.” 4

# Peat emissions

# Peat emissions factor

 Industry criticize choice of Page/Hooijer

 Argue for a value of 38 tCO 2 

# /ha/ yr based on old research

 The Page review explains why we prefer the Hooijer results (which are confirmed by Jauhiainen) to weaker previous studies

 We stand by that recommendation and believe EPA has made a correct and defensible choice