Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Great Lakes Region

December 2014

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - December 2014 - 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

 Great Lakes Significant Events - for September - November 2014

Surface Water Temperature

Precipitation

Regional Climate Overview - for September - November 2014

September and October were relatively mild across the Great 

Lakes basin, but November turned cold fairly abruptly, with 

over 90 low temperature records tied or broken in Michigan 

alone and an early onset of ice on Lake Superior. However, the 

record cold was followed by record warmth in some areas. For 

example, on November 18, Hamilton, ON tied its record low of 

-11°C (12.2°F). Only six days later, nearby Toronto, ON broke a 

record high when 18.3°C (65°F) was recorded.

The wet conditions from the spring and summer continued 

through the start of fall, resulting in September water levels 

on all of the Great Lakes being above monthly averages for 

the first time since 1998. Wet conditions in the upper Great 

Lakes delayed the seasonal decline of water levels (which 

typically begins in mid to late summer) until late fall on Lake 

Superior, and it had not begun by the end of November on Lake 

Michigan-Huron.

A major lake effect snow event occurred in the Buffalo, NY 

area from November 17-21. Up to 223 cm (88 in) of snow fell, making it one of the Buffalo area’s largest snow events in history. Extreme snowfall 

rates of up to 15 cm (6 in) per hour occurred. Evaporation rates measured at Long Point, ON on Lake Erie the day before the snow event in 

Buffalo rose to four times the rate measured the week prior, a clear indication of lake effect in action. Coinciding with the Buffalo snowfall, severe 

lake effect snowfall also occurred in areas east of Lakes Superior, Huron, Ontario and Georgian Bay. 

Winds on Lake Michigan gusted to over 80 km/hr (58 mph) during a high wind event on Halloween (October 31), causing wave heights to reach 

6.6 m (21.7 ft) at an offshore buoy, the second highest wave event since buoy observations of Lake Michigan began in 1981. The storm surge 

caused a water level rise of 0.7 m (2.4 ft) in less than 8 hours at Calumet Harbor, IL. On November 24, an intense low pressure system brought 

wind gusts up to 100 km/hr in parts of southern Ontario that caused tens of thousands of people to lose power, as well as tree and minor 

structural damage. 

During fall, 98% of the Great Lakes’ 

surface water temperatures were 

colder than average. Lake Superior’s 

waters had the greatest range, 

with departures from 4.2°C (7.6°F) 

below average to 0.5°C (0.9°F) above 

average. Lake Michigan’s water 

temperatures ranged from 3°C (5.4°F) 

below average to near average. Lakes 

Ontario, Erie, and Huron generally saw 

departures from 2°C (3.6°F) below 

average to 1°C (1.8°F) above average.

The Great Lakes basin was generally 

colder than normal this fall, with 

temperatures from 2°C (3.6°F) below 

normal to near normal. November 

was cold for the entire basin, with 

temperatures from 1°C (1.8°F) to 4°C 

(7.2°F) below normal. September 

temperatures ranged from 2°C 

(3.6°F) below normal to near normal. 

In October, the Lake Superior basin 

was below normal by up to 1°C 

(1.8°F), the Lake Michigan basin was 

near normal, and the basins of lakes 

Huron, Erie, and Ontario were up to 2°C (3.6°F) warmer than normal.

Nov 2014 Temp: Dep. from Normal

Temperature

Great Lakes Water Levels

The continuation of wet conditions has resulted in above average 

water levels for the Great Lakes throughout the quarter with the 

exception of Lake Ontario, which saw dry conditions and below average 

levels in October and November. Water supplies to Lakes Superior 

and Michigan-Huron were well above average during each of the 

past three months. Lake Superior finished the quarter 22 cm (8.6 in) 

above average, the highest since 1986. Lake Michigan-Huron rose 

above average for the first time since the late-1990s in September 

and finished the quarter 20 cm (7.9 in) above average, the highest 

since 1997. Lake Erie was 19 cm (7.5 in) above average at the end of 

November, whereas Lake Ontario was 9 cm (3.5 in) below average and 

12 cm (4.7 in) lower than a year ago. 

The Great Lakes basin precipitation 

was 115% of average during fall, 

with all lake basins but Ontario 

seeing near to above average 

precipitation. In September, all lake 

basins but Ontario were wetter 

than normal, with the overall 

basin seeing 110% of average. The 

entire basin saw 135% of average 

precipitation in October, with all lake 

basins seeing near to above normal 

precipitation. All lake basins saw 

near to below normal precipitation 

in November, with the overall basin seeing 95% of average.

Lake Temp: Dep. from LTA (°C)

Map: precip normals,1981-2010 (NOAA, EC)

Text: precip averages,1900-2010 (USACE)

Long-term average (LTA),1995-2013.

Nov 2014 shown to display greatest 

anomalies. Temperature normals 

(1981-2010).

Sept-Nov 2014 Precip: 

Percent of Normal (%)

Sept - Nov 2014

Water level statistics based on 1918-2013. 
Regional Impacts - for September - November 2014

Regional Outlook - for January - March 2015 Great Lakes Region Partners

Environment Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

www.agr.gc.ca 

Midwestern Regional Climate Center

mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Great Lakes Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

www.glerl.noaa.gov

NOAA Great Lakes Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

North Central River Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc

Ohio River Forecast Center

www.weather.gov/ohrfc 

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Integrated Sciences & Assessments

www.glisa.umich.edu

US Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District

www.lre.usace.army.mil

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

Great Lakes Water Level Dashboard

www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/dashboard/GLHCD.html

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Contact for NOAA: 

Samantha Borisoff: samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu

Molly Woloszyn: mollyw@illinois.edu

Contact for Environment Canada: 

greatlakes-grandslacs@ec.gc.ca

enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - December 2014 - 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

Contact Information

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 

indicates an increased likelihood of belownormal temperatures near the southern edge 

of the Great Lakes basin in Illinois, Indiana, 

and Ohio. Otherwise, both the CPC and 

Environment Canada (EC) are calling for equal 

chances of above, near or below normal 

temperatures for January-March across the 

Great Lakes basin.

For precipitation, the CPC forecast for 

January-March suggests a greater chance of 

below normal precipitation for much of the U.S. basin, while EC forecasts show no clear signal 

for the coming quarter in the Canadian basin.

El Niño has a 65% chance of developing during winter, but likely to be weak if it does emerge 

and may not impact winter temperatures and precipitation. In general, El Niño winters 

generally tend to be warmer than normal in the Great Lakes basin, with drier than normal 

conditions in the eastern basin, less snow than usual, and reduced ice cover on the lakes.

Impacts from Buffalo, NY Lake Effect Snow

The lake effect snow event from 

November 17-21 in the Buffalo, NY 

area resulted in 14 deaths. Major 

roadways were shut down for over 

three days, driving bans were in place 

for up to five days, and thousands of 

motorists were stranded. The weight 

of the snow caused hundreds of 

collapsed roofs and structural failures. 

Several towns spent their entire snow 

removal budget in one week. Three 

school districts were closed until 

December 1 due to hazards from high snow piles and falling trees. A 

state of emergency was declared in Erie 

County, allowing snow removal equipment 

and personnel, along with the National 

Guard, to be sent to the area to assist 

with recovery efforts. Fortunately, rapid 

snowmelt due to warmer temperatures 

and rain caused only minor flooding after 

the event. 

Agriculture

The climate conditions this September and October on the U.S. 

side of the basin were ideal for harvest. However, precipitation 

amounts during the fall were extremely high in Ontario. Combined 

with a relatively cool and wet spring, these conditions delayed 

crop development and harvest by up to five weeks in some areas, 

particularly for corn. As of December 1, 5% of soybeans and 40% of 

corn acres remain to be harvested in Ontario. The delayed soybean 

harvest has also resulted in a reduction of the winter wheat acres 

seeded.

Halloween High Wind Event

The high wind event over Lake Michigan 

on October 31 caused significant issues for 

the third largest city in the U.S, Chicago, 

IL. The strong waves off Lake Michigan 

managed to push water from the lake 

onto the northbound lane of Lakeshore 

Drive (a major expressway in Chicago), 

just in time for the evening commute. 

Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport 

had to cancel more than 700 incoming 

and outgoing flights that day because of 

the high winds and heavy rain that were 

associated with this event. In addition, the 

storm surge, coupled with higher October 

water levels, caused the D.C. Cook Nuclear 

Plant in Bridgeman, MI to shut down both 

of its reactors for several days. The storm 

surge clogged the intake tunnels used to 

draw in water for reactor cooling.

Lake Level Outlook

Water levels typically reach their seasonal 

low during winter, as water supplies tend to 

decline and evaporation increases this time of 

year. Current projections for January through 

March show water levels on lakes Superior, 

Michigan-Huron, and Erie remaining above 

average, unless exceedingly dry conditions 

are experienced. Lake Ontario is expected 

to remain near or slightly below average for 

this time of year unless above-normal water 

supplies are received. 

Outlook from the US Army Corps of Engineers and 

Environment Canada (January-March 2015) 

Temperature & 

Precipitation Outlook

Lakeshore Drive in Chicago, IL on 

10/31/14 (Todd Arkenbauer via 

WGN Weather Center Blog)

Ice Cover Outlook

For winter 2014/15, NOAA’s Great Lakes 

Environmental Research Laboratory projects 

maximum ice coverage of the Great Lakes to 

be about 54%, which is a little above the longterm average maximum ice cover of 52%. 

National Guard in Buffalo, NY on 

11/22/14 (via Flickr)

The Waukegan, IL lighthouse on 

10/31/14 (John Edmondson via 

WGN Weather Center Blog)

Total observed snowfall (in) from 

Nov 17-21, 2014 (graphic by Buffalo 

National Weather Service)

Lake Michigan from 

Sheboygan, WI in Feb. 

2014 (WI Sea Grant)

Ice cover projections: 

GLERL statistical 

regression model.