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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY     of the    REPORT    of the    COMMISSION TO ASSESS     THE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT     TO THE UNITED STATES     July 15, 1998     Pursuant to Public Law 201     104th Congress    Members of     The Commission To Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat     to the United States were nominated by the    Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives,     the Majority Leader of the U.S. Senate and the     Minority Leaders of the U.S. Senate and the     U.S. House of Representatives     The Honorable Donald H. Rumsfeld, Chairman    Dr. Barry M. Blechman     General Lee Butler, USAF (Ret.)     Dr. Richard L. Garwin     Dr. William R. Graham     Dr. William Schneider, Jr.     General Larry D. Welch, USAF (Ret.)     Dr. Paul D. Wolfowitz     The Honorable R. James Woolsey     and appointed by the    Director of Central Intelligence 

**I. Charter and OrganizationA. Statutory Charter of the Commission**    The Commission To Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States was established    pursuant to Public Law 104-201, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year    1997, Section 1321(g).     The mandate of the Commission was as follows:     "The Commission shall assess the nature and magnitude of the existing and emerging    ballistic missile threat to the United States. In carrying out its duties, the Commission    should receive the full and timely cooperation of the Secretary of Defense, the Director    of Central Intelligence and any other United States Government official responsible for    providing the Commission with analyses, briefings and other information necessary for the    fulfillment of its responsibilities. The Commission shall, not later than six months after    the date of its first meeting, submit to the Congress a report on its findings and    conclusions."     The Commission examined the ballistic missile threat posed to the 50 states. Our    assessment included threats posed by ballistic missiles: - Deployed on the territory of a potentially hostile        state. 
- Launched from a surface vessel or submarine        operating off the coasts of the United States or from an aircraft. 
- Deployed by a potentially hostile nation on the        territory of a third party to reduce the range required of its ballistic missiles to        strike the United States. 

The Commission examined the potential of both    existing and emerging powers to arm ballistic missiles with weapons of mass destruction.    The examination included the domestic design, development and production of nuclear    material and nuclear weapons as well as the potential for states to acquire, through    clandestine or covert sale, transfer or theft, either technology, material or weapons. The    Commission examined biological and chemical weapons programs of the ballistic missile    powers, as well as the potential means for delivering such agents by ballistic missiles.    The Commission reviewed U.S. collection and analysis capabilities to gain an appreciation    for the capability of the U.S. Intelligence Community, today and into the future, to warn    of the ballistic missile threat.    The Commission did not examine in detail the threat posed to U.S. territories or    possessions or to U.S. forward deployed forces, allies and friends. Nevertheless, a short    discussion of the threat to U.S. forward deployed forces, allies and friends is presented.    The Commission did not assess the cruise missile threat. A detailed examination would have    taken it beyond its charter. However, the Commission is of the view that cruise missiles    have a number of characteristics which could be seen as increasingly valuable in    fulfilling the aspirations of emerging ballistic missile states. The Commission did not    address in detail the impact of ballistic missile threats on U.S. military strategy and    doctrine, but noted the difficulty the U.S had in dealing with Iraqi missiles during the    Persian Gulf War. Only a brief discussion of the relationship of ballistic missile threats    to the ongoing revolution in military affairs is presented. A brief discussion is also    presented of the possible impact of the Year 2000 (Y2K) problem on the ballistic missile    threat.    The Commission was not asked to address the policy issues on which its assessment would    bear. Responses to the threat as assessed by the Commission are matters of considerable    public interest. Debate and agreement on the appropriate responses to the ballistic    missile threat are needed. The Commission hopes that the following assessment will be    helpful in that regard.**B. Organization of the Report**    This is an unclassified Executive Summary of the 307-page classified Report of the    Commission To Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States. The Report is    accompanied by two classified appendices and an unclassified appendix.    The full Report includes discussions of a number of additional states, such as Libya and    Syria, which are not included in this Executive Summary. The full Report includes as well    a discussion of the full range of supplier states, particularly Western powers, including    the United States. **II. Executive SummaryA. Conclusions of the Commissioners**    The nine Commissioners are unanimous in concluding that:- Concerted efforts by a number of overtly or        potentially hostile nations to acquire ballistic missiles with biological or nuclear        payloads pose a growing threat to the United States, its deployed forces and its friends        and allies. These newer, developing threats in North Korea, Iran and Iraq are in addition        to those still posed by the existing ballistic missile arsenals of Russia and China,        nations with which we are not now in conflict but which remain in uncertain transitions.        The newer ballistic missile-equipped nations' capabilities will not match those of U.S.        systems for accuracy or reliability. However, they would be able to inflict major        destruction on the U.S. within about five years of a decision to acquire such a capability        (10 years in the case of Iraq). During several of those years, the U.S. might not be aware        that such a decision had been made. 
- The threat to the U.S. posed by these emerging        capabilities is broader, more mature and evolving more rapidly than has been reported in        estimates and reports by the Intelligence Community. 
- The Intelligence Community's ability to provide        timely and accurate estimates of ballistic missile threats to the U.S. is eroding. This        erosion has roots both within and beyond the intelligence process itself. The Community's        capabilities in this area need to be strengthened in terms of both resources and        methodology. 
- The warning times the U.S. can expect of new,        threatening ballistic missile deployments are being reduced. Under some plausible        scenarios-including re-basing or transfer of operational missiles, sea- and air-launch        options, shortened development programs that might include testing in a third country, or        some combination of these-the U.S. might well have little or no warning before operational        deployment. 

Therefore, we unanimously recommend that U.S.    analyses, practices and policies that depend on expectations of extended warning of    deployment be reviewed and, as appropriate, revised to reflect the reality of an    environment in which there may be little or no warning.**B. The Commission and Its Methods**    The Commissioners brought to their task the perspectives of former senior policymakers    from outside the Intelligence Community, who have decades of experience and a variety of    views as users of the Intelligence Community's products. We shared an informed    understanding of intelligence processes. In making our assessment, we took into account    not only the hard data available, but also the often significant gaps in that data. We had    access to both data and experts drawn from the full array of departments and agencies as    well as from sources throughout the Intelligence Community. We also drew on experts from    outside that Community and on studies sponsored by the Commission. Our aim was to ensure    that we were exposed to a wide range of opinion and to the greatest possible depth and    breadth of analysis.    We began this study with different views about how to respond to ballistic missile    threats, and we continue to have differences. Nevertheless, as a result of our intensive    study over the last six months we are unanimous in our assessment of the threat, an    assessment which differs from published intelligence estimates.     This divergence between the Commission's findings and authoritative estimates by the    Intelligence Community stems primarily from our use of a somewhat more comprehensive    methodology in assessing ballistic missile development and deployment programs. We believe    that our approach takes more fully into account three crucial factors now shaping new    ballistic missile threats to the United States:- Newer ballistic missile and weapons of mass        destruction (WMD) development programs no longer follow the patterns initially set by the        U.S. and the Soviet Union. These programs require neither high standards of missile        accuracy, reliability and safety nor large numbers of missiles and therefore can move        ahead more rapidly. 
- A nation that wants to develop ballistic missiles        and weapons of mass destruction can now obtain extensive technical assistance from outside        sources. Foreign assistance is not a wild card. It is a fact. 

Nations are increasingly able to conceal    important elements of their ballistic missile and associated WMD programs and are highly    motivated to do so.**C. New Threats in a Transformed Security Environment**    The Commission did not assess nuclear, biological and chemical weapons programs on a    global basis. We considered those countries about which we felt particular reason to be    concerned and examined their capabilities to acquire ballistic missiles armed with weapons    of mass destruction.     All of the nations whose programs we examined that are developing long range ballistic    missiles have the option to arm these, as well as their shorter- range systems, with    biological or chemical weapons. These weapons can take the form of bomblets as well as a    single, large warhead.     The knowledge needed to design and build a nuclear weapon is now widespread. The emerging    ballistic missile powers have access to, or are pursuing the acquisition of, the needed    fissile material both through domestic efforts and foreign channels.    As our work went forward, it became increasingly clear to us that nations about which the    U.S. has reason to be concerned are exploiting a dramatically transformed international    security environment. That environment provides an ever-widening access to technology,    information and expertise that can be and is used to speed both the development and    deployment of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. It can also be used to    develop denial and deception techniques that seek to impede U.S. intelligence gathering    about the development and deployment programs of those nations. **1. Geopolitical Change and Role for Ballistic Missiles**    A number of countries with regional ambitions do not welcome the U.S. role as a    stabilizing power in their regions and have not accepted it passively. Because of their    ambitions, they want to place restraints on the U.S. capability to project power or    influence into their regions. They see the acquisition of missile and WMD technology as a    way of doing so.    Since the end of the Cold War, the geopolitical environment and the roles of ballistic    missiles and weapons of mass destruction have both evolved. Ballistic missiles provide a    cost-effective delivery system that can be used for both conventional and non-conventional    weapons. For those seeking to thwart the projection of U.S. power, the capability to    combine ballistic missiles with weapons of mass destruction provides a strategic counter    to U.S. conventional and information-based military superiority. With such weapons, these    nations can pose a serious threat to the United States, to its forward-based forces and    their staging areas and to U.S. friends and allies.    Whether short or long range, a successfully launched ballistic missile has a high    probability of delivering its payload to its target compared to other means of delivery.    Emerging powers therefore see ballistic missiles as highly effective deterrent weapons and    as an effective means of coercing or intimidating adversaries, including the United    States.**2. Russia**    With regard to Russia, the principal cloud over the future is lingering political    uncertainty. Despite enormous changes since the break-up of the Soviet Union, Russia is in    an uncertain, in some ways precarious, transition. It may succeed in establishing a stable    democracy allied with the West in maintaining peace and extending freedom. Or it may not.    Or it might be torn by internal struggles for an extended period. In its present    situation, accurate U.S. intelligence estimates are difficult to make.    Russia continues to pose a ballistic missile threat to the United States, although of a    different character than in the past. The number of missiles in its inventory is likely to    decline further compared with Cold War levels in that large numbers of Soviet strategic    missiles deployed in the 1970s and 1980s are scheduled to be retired. Still, Russian    ballistic missile forces continue to be modernized and improved, although the pace of    modernization has been slowed from planned schedules by economic constraints. The Russian    ballistic missile early warning system and nuclear command and control system have also    been affected by aging and delays in planned modernization. In the context of a crisis    growing out of civil strife, present early warning and command and control (C2)    weaknesses could pose a risk of unauthorized or inadvertent launch of missiles against the    United States.     With the Cold War ended, the likelihood of a deliberate missile attack on the U.S. from    Russia has been greatly lessened but not entirely eliminated. However, Russia's leaders    issued a new national security policy in 1993 that places greater reliance on nuclear    deterrence, very likely in response to Russia's economic difficulties and decline in its    conventional military capabilities. At the same time, the risk of an accident or of a loss    of control over Russian ballistic missile forces-a risk which now appears small-could    increase sharply and with little warning if the political situation in Russia were to    deteriorate.     Also, quite apart from these risks, Russia poses a threat to the U.S. as a major exporter    of enabling technologies, including ballistic missile technologies, to countries hostile    to the United States. In particular, Russian assistance has greatly accelerated Iran's    ballistic missile program.**3. China**    As in the case of Russia, China's future is clouded by a range of uncertainties. China,    too, is going through a transition, but one which has been going on for 20 years. The    improvement in Sino-U.S. relations, interrupted in 1989, has resumed. Although the U.S.    and China are developing a more cooperative relationship, significant potential conflicts    remain, and China is less constrained today by fear of Russia than it once was by fear of    the Soviet Union. Taiwan is an obvious potential flashpoint. Others could arise as China    pursues its drive for greater influence in Asia and the Western Pacific. Even now China    has conflicts with several of its neighbors, some of which could involve the U.S. in a    confrontation.     China is modernizing its long range missiles and nuclear weapons in ways that will make it    a more threatening power in the event of a crisis. China's 1996 missile firings in the    Taiwan Strait, aimed at intimidating Taiwan in the lead-up to its presidential election,    provoked a sharp confrontation with the United States. For example, during this crisis a    pointed question was posed by Lt. Gen. Xiong Guang Kai, a frequent spokesman for Chinese    policy, about U.S. willingness to trade Los Angeles for Taipei. This comment seemed    designed to link China's ballistic missile capabilities with its regional priorities.     China also poses a threat to the U.S. as a significant proliferator of ballistic missiles,    weapons of mass destruction and enabling technologies. It has carried out extensive    transfers to Iran's solid-fueled ballistic missile program. It has supplied Pakistan with    a design for a nuclear weapon and additional nuclear weapons assistance. It has even    transferred complete ballistic missile systems to Saudi Arabia (the 3,100-km-range CSS-2)    and Pakistan (the 350-km-range M-11).     The behavior thus far of Russia and China makes it appear unlikely, albeit for different    reasons-strategic, political, economic or some combination of all three-that either    government will soon effectively reduce its country's sizable transfer of critical    technologies, experts or expertise to the emerging missile powers. **4. Countries With Scud-Based Missile Infrastructures**    The basis of most missile developments by emerging ballistic missile powers is the Soviet    Scud missile and its derivatives. The Scud is derived from the World War II-era German V-2    rocket. With the external help now readily available, a nation with a well-developed,    Scud-based ballistic missile infrastructure would be able to achieve first flight of a    long range missile, up to and including intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) range    (greater than 5,500 km), within about five years of deciding to do so. During several of    those years the U.S. might not be aware that such a decision had been made. Early    production models would probably be limited in number. They would be unlikely to meet U.S.    standards of safety, accuracy and reliability. But the purposes of these nations would not    require such standards. A larger force armed with scores of missiles and warheads and    meeting higher operational standards would take somewhat longer to test, produce and    deploy. But meanwhile, even a few of the simpler missiles could be highly effective for    the purposes of those countries.     The extraordinary level of resources North Korea and Iran are now devoting to developing    their own ballistic missile capabilities poses a substantial and immediate danger to the    U.S., its vital interests and its allies. While these nations' missile programs may    presently be aimed primarily at regional adversaries, they inevitably and inescapably    engage the vital interests of the U.S. as well. Their targeted adversaries include key    U.S. friends and allies. U.S. deployed forces are already at risk from these nations'    growing arsenals. Each of these nations places a high priority on threatening U.S.    territory, and each is even now pursuing advanced ballistic missile capabilities to pose a    direct threat to U.S. territory.**a. North Korea**    There is evidence that North Korea is working hard on the Taepo Dong 2 (TD-2) ballistic    missile. The status of the system's development cannot be determined precisely.    Nevertheless, the ballistic missile test infrastructure in North Korea is well developed.    Once the system is assessed to be ready, a test flight could be conducted within six    months of a decision to do so. If North Korea judged the test to be a success, the TD-2    could be deployed rapidly. It is unlikely the U.S. would know of such a decision much    before the missile was launched. This missile could reach major cities and military bases    in Alaska and the smaller, westernmost islands in the Hawaiian chain. Light-weight    variations of the TD-2 could fly as far as 10,000 km, placing at risk western U.S.    territory in an arc extending northwest from Phoenix, Arizona, to Madison, Wisconsin.    These variants of the TD-2 would require additional time to develop and would likely    require an additional flight test.    North Korea has developed and deployed the No Dong, a medium range ballistic missile    (MRBM) using a scaled-up Scud engine, which is capable of flying 1,300 km. With this    missile, North Korea can threaten Japan, South Korea, and US bases in the vicinity of the    DPRK. North Korea has reportedly tested the No Dong only once, in 1993. The Commission    judges that the No Dong was operationally deployed long before the U.S. Government    recognized that fact. There is ample evidence that North Korea has created a sizable    missile production infrastructure, and therefore it is highly likely that considerable    numbers of No Dongs have been produced.     In light of the considerable difficulties the Intelligence Community encountered in    assessing the pace and scope of the No Dong missile program, the U.S. may have very little    warning prior to the deployment of the Taepo Dong 2.     North Korea maintains an active WMD program, including a nuclear weapon program. It is    known that North Korea diverted material in the late 1980s for at least one or possibly    two weapons. North Korea's ongoing nuclear program activity raises the possibility that it    could produce additional nuclear weapons. North Korea also possesses biological weapons    production and dispensing technology, including the capability to deploy chemical or    biological warheads on missiles.     North Korea also poses a major threat to American interests, and potentially to the United    States itself, because it is a major proliferator of the ballistic missile capabilities it    possesses-missiles, technology, technicians, transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) and    underground facility expertise-to other countries of missile proliferation concern. These    countries include Iran, Pakistan and others. **b. Iran**    Iran is placing extraordinary emphasis on its ballistic missile and WMD development    programs. The ballistic missile infrastructure in Iran is now more sophisticated than that    of North Korea, and has benefited from broad, essential, long-term assistance from Russia    and important assistance from China as well. Iran is making very rapid progress in    developing the Shahab-3 MRBM, which like the North Korean No Dong has a range of 1300 km.    This missile may be flight tested at any time and deployed soon thereafter.     We judge that Iran now has the technical capability and resources to demonstrate an    ICBM-range ballistic missile, similar to the TD-2 (based on scaled-up Scud technology)    within five years of a decision to proceed-whether that decision has already been made or    is yet to be made.     In addition to this Scud-based long range ballistic missile program, Iran has acquired and    is seeking major, advanced missile components that can be combined to produce ballistic    missiles with sufficient range to strike the United States. For example, Iran is reported    to have acquired engines or engine designs for the RD-214 engine, which powered the Soviet    SS-4 MRBM, and to have an interest in even more advanced engines. A 10,000 km-range    Iranian missile could hold the U.S. at risk in an arc extending northeast of a line from    Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to St. Paul, Minnesota.     Iran has also developed a solid-fueled rocket infrastructure and produces short range    rockets, and also is seeking long range missile technology from outside sources,    purportedly for a space launch vehicle. Both contribute directly to Iran's ballistic    missile technology base. Iran is known to rely heavily on imports of missile technology    from foreign sources, particularly Russia and North Korea. These imports have allowed    Iran's missile programs to proceed swiftly, and they can be incorporated into Iran's    domestic infrastructure as well.     Iran is developing weapons of mass destruction. It has a nuclear energy and weapons    program, which aims to design, develop, and as soon as possible produce nuclear weapons.    The Commission judges that the only issue as to whether or not Iran may soon have or    already has a nuclear weapon is the amount of fissile material available to it. Because of    significant gaps in our knowledge, the U.S. is unlikely to know whether Iran possesses    nuclear weapons until after the fact. While Iran's civil nuclear program is currently    under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, it could be used as a source    of sufficient fissile material to construct a small number of weapons within the next ten    years if Iran were willing to violate safeguards. If Iran were to accumulate enough    fissile material from foreign sources, it might be able to develop a nuclear weapon in    only one to three years. Iran also has an active chemical weapon development and    production program, and is conducting research into biological weapons. **c. Iraq**    Iraq has maintained the skills and industrial capabilities needed to reconstitute its long    range ballistic missile program. Its plant and equipment are less developed than those of    North Korea or Iran as a result of actions forced by UN Resolutions and monitoring.    However, Iraq has actively continued work on the short range (under 150 km) liquid- and    solid-fueled missile programs that are allowed by the Resolutions. Once UN-imposed    controls are lifted, Iraq could mount a determined effort to acquire needed plant and    equipment, whether directly or indirectly. Such an effort would allow Iraq to pose an ICBM    threat to the United States within 10 years. Iraq could develop a shorter range, covert,    ship-launched missile threat that could threaten the United States in a very short time.     Iraq had a large, intense ballistic missile development and production program prior to    the Gulf War. The Iraqis produced Scuds, and then modified Scud missiles to produce the    600 km range Al Hussein and 900 km range Al Abbas missiles. The expertise, as well as some    of the equipment and materials from this program remain in Iraq and provide a strong    foundation for a revived ballistic missile program.     Prior to the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, Iraq could have had nuclear weapons in the    1993-1995 time frame, although it still had technical hurdles to overcome. After the    invasion of Kuwait, Iraq began a crash program to produce a nuclear device in six to nine    months based on highly enriched uranium removed from the safeguarded reactor at Tuwaitha.    Iraq has the capability to reconstitute its nuclear weapon program; the speed at which it    can do so depends on the availability of fissile material. It would take several years to    build the required production facilities from scratch. It is possible that Iraq has hidden    some material from U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM) inspection, or that it could acquire    fissile material abroad (e.g., from another "rogue" state.) Iraq also had large    chemical and biological weapons programs prior to the war, and produced chemical and    biological warheads for its missiles. Knowledge, personnel, and equipment related to WMD    remain in Iraq, so that it could reconstitute these programs rapidly following the end of    sanctions. **5. India**    India is developing a number of ballistic missiles from short range to those with    ICBM-class capabilities, along with a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and a    short range, surface ship-launched system. India has the infrastructure to develop and    produce these missiles. It is aggressively seeking technology from other states,    particularly Russia. While it develops its long range ballistic missiles, India's    space-launch vehicles provide an option for an interim ICBM capability. India has    detonated several nuclear devices and it is clear that it is developing warheads for its    missile systems. India has biological and chemical weapons programs. Since the Pakistani    nuclear tests, India has announced its intention to increase its spending on missiles and    nuclear weapons.     India's program to develop ballistic missiles began in 1983 and grew out of its    space-launch program, which was based on Scout rocket technology acquired from the United    States. India currently has developed and deployed the Prithvi short range ballistic    missile (SRBM), and is developing longer range, liquid- and solid-fueled missiles. They    include the Prithvi II SRBM, the Agni, Agni-Plus and Agni-B IRBMs, a sea-launched    ballistic missile and an SLBM, the Sagarika.     India detonated a nuclear device in 1974, conducted a test series in May 1998, and it is    clear that it is developing warheads for its missile systems. Indian leaders recently    declared that India has developed nuclear weapons for deployment on the Prithvi SRBM and    the Agni Plus MRBM.     India has acquired and continues to seek Russian, U.S., and Western European technology    for its missile programs. Technology and expertise acquired from other states,    particularly from Russia, are helping India to accelerate the development and increase the    sophistication of its missile systems. For example, Russian assistance is critical to the    development of the Indian SLBM and its related submarine. But India is rapidly enhancing    its own missile science and technology base as well. Many Indian nationals are educated    and work in the U.S., Europe, and other advanced nations; some of the knowledge thereby    acquired returns to the Indian missile program. While India continues to benefit from    foreign technology and expertise, its programs and industrial base are now sufficiently    advanced that supplier control regimes can affect only the rate of acceleration in India's    programs. India is in a position to supply material and technical assistance to others. **6. Pakistan**    Pakistan's ballistic missile infrastructure is now more advanced than that of North Korea.    It will support development of a missile of 2,500-km range, which we believe Pakistan will    seek in order to put all of India within range of Pakistani missiles. The development of a    2,500-km missile will give Pakistan the technical base for developing a much longer range    missile system. Through foreign acquisition, and beginning without an extensive domestic    science and technology base, Pakistan has acquired these missile capabilities quite    rapidly. China and North Korea are Pakistan's major sources of ballistic missiles,    production facilities and technology.     Pakistan currently possesses nuclear-capable M-11 SRBMs acquired from China, and it may    produce its own missile, the Tarmuk, based on the M-11. In 1998, Pakistan tested the 1300    km Ghauri MRBM, a version of the North Korean No Dong, and we believe Pakistan has    acquired production facilities for this missile as well.     Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons that employ highly-enriched uranium and in May 1998    conducted its first nuclear weapon test series. A new Pakistani nuclear reactor has been    completed that could be used for the production of plutonium. In addition to its nuclear    weapons, Pakistan has biological and chemical weapons programs. Chinese assistance has    been crucial to Pakistan's nuclear weapons program.     India and Pakistan are not hostile to the United States. The prospect of U.S. military    confrontation with either seems at present to be slight. However, beyond the possibility    of nuclear war on the subcontinent, their aggressive, competitive development of ballistic    missiles and weapons of mass destruction poses three concerns in particular. First, it    enables them to supply relevant technologies to other nations. Second, India and Pakistan    may seek additional technical assistance through cooperation with their current major    suppliers-India from North Korea, Iran and Russia; Pakistan from North Korea and    China-because of the threats they perceive from one another and because of India's    anxieties about China, combined with their mounting international isolation. Third, their    growing missile and WMD capabilities have direct effects on U.S. policies, both regional    and global, and could significantly affect U.S. capability to play a stabilizing role in    Asia.**D. A New Non-Proliferation Environment**    Since the end of the Cold War a number of developments have made ballistic missile and WMD    technologies increasingly available. They include:- A number of nations have chosen not to join        non-proliferation agreements. 
- Some participants in those agreements have        cheated. 
- As global trade has steadily expanded, access has        increased to the information, technology and technicians needed for missile and WMD        development. 
- Access to technologies used in early generations        of U.S. and Soviet missiles has eased. However rudimentary compared to present U.S.        standards, these technologies serve the needs of emerging ballistic missile powers. 
- Among those countries of concern to the U.S.,        commerce in ballistic missile and WMD technology and hardware has been growing, which may        make proliferation self-sustaining among them and facilitate their ability to proliferate        technology and hardware to others. 

Some countries which could have readily acquired    nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles-such as Germany, Japan and South Korea-have been    successfully encouraged not to do so by U.S. security guarantees and by non-proliferation    agreements. Even though they lack such security guarantees, other countries have also    joined non-proliferation agreements and abandoned development programs and weapons    systems. Some examples are Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and the former Soviet republics    of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.**1. Increased Competence of and Trade Among Emerging    Ballistic Missile Powers**    Conversely, there are other countries-some of which are themselves parties to various    non-proliferation agreements and treaties-that either have acquired ballistic missile or    WMD capabilities or are working hard to do so. North Korea, Iran and Iraq, as well as    India and Pakistan, are at the forefront of this group. They now have increased incentives    to cooperate with one another. They have extensive access to technology, information and    expertise from developed countries such as Russia and China. They also have access through    commercial and other channels in the West, including the United States. Through this trade    and their own indigenous efforts, these second-tier powers are on the verge of being able    to provide to one another, if they have not already done so, the capabilities needed to    develop long range ballistic missiles. **2. U.S. as a Contributor to Proliferation**    The U.S. is the world's leading developer and user of advanced technology. Once it is    transferred by the U.S. or by another developed country, there is no way to ensure that    the transferred technology will not be used for hostile purposes. The U.S. tries to limit    technology transfers to hostile powers, but history teaches that such transfers cannot be    stopped for long periods. They can only be slowed and made more costly, and even that    requires the cooperation of other developed nations. The acquisition and use of    transferred technologies in ballistic missile and WMD programs has been facilitated by    foreign student training in the U.S., by wide dissemination of technical information, by    the illegal acquisition of U.S. designs and equipment and by the relaxation of U.S. export    control policies. As a result, the U.S. has been and is today a major, albeit    unintentional, contributor to the proliferation of ballistic missiles and associated    weapons of mass destruction.**3. Motives of Countries of Concern**    Recent ballistic missile and nuclear tests in South Asia should not be viewed as merely a    sharp but temporary setback in the expanding reach of nonproliferation regimes. While    policymakers may try to reverse or at least contain the trends of which these tests are a    part, the missile and WMD programs of these nations are clearly the results of fundamental    political calculations of their vital interests. Those nations willing and able to supply    dangerous technologies and systems to one another, including Russia, China and their    quasi-governmental commercial entities, may be motivated by commercial, foreign policy or    national security interests or by a combination thereof. As noted above, such countries    are increasingly cooperating with one another, perhaps in some instances because they have    reciprocal needs for what one has and the other lacks. The transfer of complete missile    systems, such as China's transfer to Saudi Arabia, will continue to be available. Short of    radical political change, there is every reason to assume that the nations engaged in    these missile and WMD development activities will continue their programs as matters of    high priority.**4. Readier Market Access to Technology**    In today's increasingly market-driven, global economy, nations so motivated have faster,    cheaper and more efficient access to modern technology. Commercial exchanges and    technology transfers have multiplied the pathways to those technologies needed for    ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. These pathways reduce development    times and costs, lowering both technical and budget obstacles to missile development and    deployment.    Expanding world trade and the explosion in information technology have accelerated the    global diffusion of scientific, technical and industrial information. The channels, both    public and private, legal and illegal, through which technology, components and individual    technicians can be moved among nations have increased exponentially. **5. Availability of Classified Information and    Export-Controlled Technology**    Those trends in the commercial sector have been accompanied, and in many ways accelerated,    by an increased availability of classified information as a result of: - Lax enforcement of export controls. 
- Relaxation of U.S. and Western export controls. 
- Growth in dual-use technologies. 
- Economic incentives to sell ballistic missile        components and systems. 
- Extensive declassification of materials related to        ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. 
- Continued, intense espionage facilitated by        security measures increasingly inadequate for the new environment. 

Extensive disclosure of classified information,    including information compromising intelligence sources and methods. Damaging information    appears almost daily in the national and international media and on the Internet.**E. Alternative Ballistic Missile Launch Modes**    In evaluating present threats, it is misleading to use old patterns of development as    guides. The history of U.S. and Soviet missile and WMD development has become irrelevant.    Approaches that the U.S. considered and specifically rejected on grounds of safety,    reliability, accuracy and requirements for high volume production are in many cases well    suited to nations less concerned about safety and able to meet their needs with only a    few, less accurate, less reliable weapons. Analytical approaches the Intelligence    Community could realistically rely on in the past need to be restudied and reevaluated in    light of this newer model.    The Commission believes the U.S. needs to pay attention to the possibility that complete,    long range ballistic missile systems could be transferred from one nation to another, just    as China transferred operational CSS-2s to Saudi Arabia in 1988. Such missiles could be    equipped with weapons of mass destruction.    One nation's use of another nation's territory also needs to be considered. The U.S. did    this during the Cold War, and the Soviet Union tried to do it in Cuba in the early 1960s.    For example, if Iran were to deploy ballistic missiles in Libya, it could reduce the range    required to threaten the U.S. as well as Europe. Given the existing patterns of    cooperation we have already seen, both testing by one country on the territory of another    and deriving data from other-country tests are also distinct possibilities.     Sea launch of shorter range ballistic missiles is another possibility. This could enable a    country to pose a direct territorial threat to the U.S. sooner than it could by waiting to    develop an ICBM for launch from its own territory. Sea-launching could also permit it to    target a larger area of the U.S. than would a missile fired from its home territory. India    is working on a sea launch capability. Air launch is another possible mode of delivering a    shorter range missile to U.S. territory.     The key importance of these approaches is that each would significantly shorten the    warning time of deployment available to the United States.**F. Erosion of Warning**    Precise forecasts of the growth in ballistic missile capabilities over the next two    decades-tests by year, production rates, weapons deployed by year, weapon characteristics    by system type and circular error probable (CEP)-cannot be provided with confidence.    Deception and denial efforts are intense and often successful, and U.S. collection and    analysis assets are limited. Together they create a high risk of continued surprise.     The question is not simply whether we will have warning of an emerging capability, but    whether the nature and magnitude of a particular threat will be perceived with sufficient    clarity in time to take appropriate action.    Concealment, denial and deception efforts by key target countries are intended to delay    the discovery of strategically significant activities until well after they had been    carried out successfully. The fact that some of these secret activities are discovered    over time is to the credit of the U.S. Intelligence Community. However, the fact that    there are delays in discovery of those activities provides a sharp warning that a great    deal of activity goes undetected.     Both technical and human intelligence are inherently more difficult to collect in those    countries where the United States has limited access, which includes most of the ballistic    missile countries of concern. The U.S. is not able to predict and anticipate with    confidence the behavior and actions of emerging ballistic missile powers and their related    political decision-making.     Their ballistic missile programs often do not follow a single, known pattern or model, and    they use unexpected development patterns. These are not models of development the U.S.    follows or that intelligence analysts expect to see. For example, Pakistan's test launch    in April 1998 of its Ghauri medium range ballistic missile (MRBM)-its version of the North    Korean No Dong-could not be predicted on the basis of any known pattern of technical    development either for MRBMs generally or Pakistan in particular. Similarly, North Korea's    decision to deploy the No Dong after what is believed to be a single successful test    flight is another example. Based on U.S. and Russian experience, the Intelligence    Community had expected that a regular test series would be required to provide the    confidence needed before any country would produce and deploy a ballistic missile system.    Yet North Korea deployed the No Dong.     The Commission believes that the technical means of collection now employed will not meet    emerging requirements, and considerable uncertainty persists whether planned collection    and analysis systems will do so. **G. Methodology**    In analyzing the ballistic missile threat, the Commission used an expanded methodology. We    used it as a complement to the traditional analysis in which a country's known program    status is used to establish estimates of its current missile capabilities. We believe this    expanded approach provides insights into emerging threats that the prevailing approaches    used by the Intelligence Community may not bring to the surface.     To guide our assessment of the ballistic missile threat to the United States we posed    three questions: - What is known about the ballistic missile threat,        including the domestic infrastructure of a ballistic missile power; the efforts of a power        to acquire foreign technology, materials and expertise; and the scale, pace and progress        of its programs? 
- What is not known about the threat in each of        those three categories? 
- Can a power intent on posing a ballistic missile        threat to any part of the United States, including the use of but not limited to        ICBM-range missiles, use the open market, the black market and/or espionage to secure the        needed technology and expertise and then carry out its program in ways that will minimize        the interval between the time the U.S. becomes aware of the threat and the fielding of        that capability? 

In seeking answers to these questions, the    Commission familiarized itself with the current state of knowledge as well as the depth of    analytic capability within the Intelligence Community related to ballistic missile and WMD    threats. The Commission used its broad access to individuals, special compartmented    intelligence and special access programs. It consulted with experts in the broader    government and private analytic and policy communities. It reviewed the strengths,    weaknesses and vulnerabilities of current and planned human and technical collection    efforts and capabilities, especially in light of the increasingly sophisticated means and    methods available to target countries to hide from U.S. intelligence collection. It    reviewed with scientists, engineers and program managers from the public and private    sectors the technical issues associated with the design, development and testing of    ballistic missiles and the means and methods available to the emerging ballistic missile    powers to meet the challenges associated with long range ballistic missile development and    testing.    The Commission analyzed the available information in order to develop an understanding of    the threat from three perspectives: - We examined the known size and quality of the        deployed forces, the doctrine and the command and control systems that govern the forces        and the availability of weapons of mass destruction to arm the forces. We reviewed the        infrastructure supporting the programs and the extent of past and present foreign        assistance available to those programs from Russia, China and other countries, including        the West. 
- We examined the ways in which the programs of        emerging ballistic missile powers compared with one another. For example, we traced the        development histories of the related programs of North Korea, Iran, Iraq and Pakistan and        the relationships among them. This comparison helped in identifying the similarities        between programs, the extent to which each had aided one another in overcoming critical        development hurdles and, importantly, the pace at which a determined country can progress        in its program development. 
- We reviewed the resources ("inputs")        available and the ways in which they provide indicators of the prospects for successful        missile development. 

By integrating these perspectives, we were able    to partially bridge a significant number of intelligence gaps. Emphasizing inputs makes    two important contributions to the analysis. Inputs include domestic opportunity costs,    the foreign technology and expertise sought and obtained, the urgency with which    facilities are constructed both above and below ground and the willingness to absorb cost    and time penalties in order to hide activities from detection by U.S. intelligence.    Attention to inputs across all elements of a program helps develop an understanding of the    scale and scope of a program before traditional output indicators, such as testing and    production rates, can be observed and evaluated. When combined with observed outputs and    the application of engineering judgments, the understanding of the scale and scope of a    program that this provided helped us to measure the probable pace and magnitude of a    program and its potential products. We were then able to make what we believe to be    reasonably confident estimates of what the various programs can achieve.     Rather than measuring how far a program had progressed from a known starting point, the    Commission sought to measure how close a program might be to demonstrating the first    flight of a long range ballistic missile. This approach requires that analysts extrapolate    a program's scope, scale, pace and direction beyond what the hard evidence at hand    unequivocally supports. It is in sharp contrast to a narrow focus on the certain that    obscures the almost-certain. The approach helps reduce the effects of denial and deception    efforts. When strategically significant programs were assessed by narrowly focusing on    what is known, the assessments lagged the actual state of the programs by two to eight    years and in some cases completely missed significant programs.    We chose to focus on what is left to be accomplished in the programs of potentially    threatening ballistic missile powers and alternative paths they can follow to attain their    goals. We reviewed program histories and current activities, including foreign assistance,    to determine whether a ballistic missile program acquired the means to overcome its    identified problems. We considered the multiple pathways available for completing its    development given the combination of expertise and technology available to it and the    circumstances in which it is operating. This approach accepts as a basic premise that a    power determined to possess a long range missile, knowing that the U.S. is trying to track    its every action but aware of American intelligence methods and sources, will do its best    to deny information and to deceive the U.S. about its actual progress.     Because of these options available to emerging ballistic missile powers, the Commission,    unanimously recognizing that missile development and deployment now follows new models,    strongly urges the use of an expanded approach to intelligence that assesses both inputs    and outputs in other countries' ballistic missile programs. We believe this approach is    needed in order to capture both sooner and more accurately the speed and magnitude of    potential ballistic missile proliferation in the post-Cold War world and to assess, in    time, the various threats this proliferation poses to the United States.    The Commission's key judgments are derived from applying this methodology and examining    the evidence in light of the individual and collective experience of the nine    Commissioners.**H. Summary**    Ballistic missiles armed with WMD payloads pose a strategic threat to the United States.    This is not a distant threat. Characterizing foreign assistance as a wild card is both    incorrect and misleading. Foreign assistance is pervasive, enabling and often the    preferred path to ballistic missile and WMD capability.     A new strategic environment now gives emerging ballistic missile powers the capacity,    through a combination of domestic development and foreign assistance, to acquire the means    to strike the U.S. within about five years of a decision to acquire such a capability (10    years in the case of Iraq). During several of those years, the U.S. might not be aware    that such a decision had been made. Available alternative means of delivery can shorten    the warning time of deployment nearly to zero.     The threat is exacerbated by the ability of both existing and emerging ballistic missile    powers to hide their activities from the U.S. and to deceive the U.S. about the pace,    scope and direction of their development and proliferation programs. Therefore, we    unanimously recommend that U.S. analyses, practices and policies that depend on    expectations of extended warning of deployment be reviewed and, as appropriate, revised to    reflect the reality of an environment in which there may be little or no warning. **Attachment 1.A. Year 2000 (Y2K) Computer Problem**    The widely-discussed Year 2000 (Y2K) problem concerns computer hardware with embedded    clocks and software with date recognition functions that still designate years with only    two digits and are programmed to interpret "00" as the year 1900 rather than    2000. The tasks of reprogramming are immense and complex, and uncertainties surrounding    their pace and outcome plague many aspects of life and commerce. The Commission judges    that military and intelligence operations are not immune to the effects of the Y2K    problem.    Not only at the millennium but for some undetermined time before and after it the Y2K    problem can affect U.S. and Russian ballistic missile forces and, to a lesser extent,    those of China, the United Kingdom (U.K.) and France. The U.S. particularly and Russia    somewhat less so depend on computer-based and computer-aided intelligence and surveillance    and on automated processes to assure that their ballistic missile forces will function    under all conceivable circumstances. The Y2K problem can potentially upset some of those    calculations by interfering with the capacity of the U.S. and Russia to: - Monitor the activities of each other at the        strategic level, including the disposition and posture of their conventional military        forces. 
- Provide tactical warning of military operations,        particularly ballistic missile operations, through collection of data from space, air and        ground based sensors. 
- Process and fuse the data received from sensors in        the command and control nets. 
- Maintain positive control over ballistic missile        forces and, if automated responses to false data and warnings are triggered, retain or        regain control by the national military and political leadership. 

Y2K problems are complex and not easy to deal    with. Efforts are underway to isolate critical systems from the problem, but they may not    totally eliminate vulnerabilities for two reasons:- No system is completely isolated. Command centers        may have new software installed, but if the support services-electric, water, gas and        communications, for example-are not self-contained the center may fail. Even if support        services are self-contained, the need for the center to function via computer or by        computer-dependent communication systems makes it vulnerable to Y2K problems up or        downstream from it. 
- Efforts to correct the problem provide their own        attractive opportunities for unfriendly agents and powers to tamper with mission-critical        software. Errors can be programmed which are designed to appear only much later and in        circumstances that cannot be anticipated. The Commission is troubled by the amount of Y2K        software work being performed in foreign countries, particularly India, for U.S. industry        and for the U.S. Government-including elements of the Intelligence Community. 

**B. Revolution in    Military Affairs and Information Warfare**

The term "Revolution in Military    Affairs" (RMA) is used to describe the impact of leading-edge military technologies    and information warfare on the conduct of military operations from the tactical to the    strategic level. Key RMA technologies include precision-guided munitions, stealth    technology and the use of space-based assets for command, control, communications,    intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as modern computational    capabilities to integrate these functions.     The U.S. military is adopting new weapon systems and tactical, operational and strategic    concepts based on the elements of the RMA. The objective is to make U.S. forces lighter    but more lethal, so that fewer personnel with less equipment can strike over longer    distances and with a far more powerful effect. This gives prospective adversaries greater    incentives to find new ways of offsetting the new RMA-based capabilities of the U.S. and    in particular to come up with new "asymmetric" strategies-that is, strategies    that can cripple U.S. ability to use its forces without the adversary having to confront    those forces directly.     These asymmetric strategies of potential adversaries of the U.S. could well include    ballistic missile operations against ports, airfields, communications centers or urban and    industrial areas. Attacking ports and airfields the U.S. might use could severely hamper    operations and could undercut the military advantages U.S. technological superiority    provides. Interrupting communications channels would make it more difficult to plan,    organize and conduct operations. Strikes by an adversary on urban and industrial centers    could change the nature of the conflict from what the U.S. prefers-one confined to    precision attacks against military forces in the field and point targets in urban and    industrial settings-to one of indiscriminate damage to civilians and the infrastructure    supporting them.     In the 1991 Persian Gulf War Iraqi ballistic missiles threatened to undermine the    coalition's political strategy, and the coalition's military responses failed to halt    Iraqi ballistic missile attacks. Doctrinal shifts in Russia and China have placed added    emphasis on ballistic missile operations. Together, these highlight the vulnerability to    such operations of the U.S., its forces and its allies, whether conducted by Russia, China    or emerging ballistic missile powers. A number of other nations are incorporating    technical features of the RMA into their forces. These include space-based surveillance,    reconnaissance and communications by way of both space and land-based fiber-optic networks    (perhaps using civilian assets), guidance from the space-based global positioning    system/global navigation satellite system (GPS/GLONASS) to increase the accuracy of    missiles and the computational capabilities needed to plan, organize and conduct    operations. Their capacity to conduct asymmetric operations with ballistic missiles,    including attacks on RMA sites in the U.S., will increase. **Attachment 2. Unclassified Working Papers**    Table of Contents for Appendix III: Unclassified Working Papers 

Bruce Blair, "The Plight of the Russian    Military and Nuclear Control" 

Stephen J. Blank, "Nuclear Strategy and    Nuclear Proliferation in Russian Strategy" 

W. Seth Carus, "Ballistic Missiles in Iran    and Iraq: 1988-1998" 

W. Seth Carus, "Israeli Ballistic Missile    Developments" 

Richard T. Cupitt, "Export Controls and    Missile Technology Transfer" 

Michael Eisenstadt, "Missiles and Weapons of    Mass Destruction (WMDs) in Iraq and Iran: Current Developments and Potential for Future    Surprises" 

Gerrit W. Gong, "Assessing the Ballistic    Missile Threat: China-Japan-Korea-Taiwan Issues" 

Dennis M. Gormley, "Transfer Pathways for    Cruise Missiles" 

Daniel Goure, "The Evolution of Russian    Nuclear Forces: Working to a Plan" 

Daniel Goure, "WMD and Ballistic Missiles in    South Asia" 

Kurt Guthe and Keith Payne, "The Unique    Value of Ballistic Missiles for Deterrence and Coercion: The Chinese Case" 

Selig S. Harrison, "Missile Capabilities in    Northeast Asia: Japan, South Korea and North Korea" 

David C. Isby, "Barriers to Proliferation    and Pathways to Transfer: Building Ballistic Missile Capabilities Under MTCR" 

Aaron Karp, "Technology Pathways to    Ballistic Missiles in Iran" 

Kenneth Katzman, "Iran's Long Range Missile    Capabilities" 

Kenneth Katzman, "Iraq's Long Range Missile    Capabilities" 

Michael Krepon, "India, Pakistan and the    Ballistic Missile Threat" 

Robbin Laird, "Rethinking the Role of    Western States as Supplier Nations" 

Robert A. Manning, "Missile Proliferation    Threats in Northeast Asia" 

John M. Myrah, "The Proliferation of    Ballistic Missiles: What Should We Do to Stop It?" 

Keith Payne, "The Missile Technology Control    Regime: European Involvement and Compliance Issues" 

Keith Payne and Robert Rudney, "The Unique    Value of Ballistic Missiles for Deterrence and Coercion" 

Nadia Schadlow, "Patterns of Ukrainian    Conduct" 

Gilbert Siegert, "The Chinese Space    Program" 

Gilbert Siegert, "Potential Threats from    Global Commercial Space Capabilities" 

David J. Smith, "Friendly Countries and    Missile Proliferation: Dealing With Different Perceptions" 

Henry Sokolski, "Space Technology Transfers    and Missile Proliferation" 

SPC Summary of Roundtable with W. Seth Carus,    Michael Eisenstadt, Ken Katzman and Ken Timmerman, "Iran/Iraq" 

SPC Summary of Roundtable with Bruce Blair,    Stephen Blank, Daniel Goure and Nadia Schadlow, "Russia/Ukraine" 

SPC Summary of Roundtable with Gerrit W. Gong,    Selig Harrison, Robert Manning and David Wright, "China/Japan/Korea" 

SPC Summary of Roundtable with Daniel Goure,    Michael Krepon and David Tanks, "India/Pakistan" 

SPC Summary of Roundtable with W. Seth Carus and    Dov Zakheim, "North Africa/Israel" 

SPC Summary of Roundtable with David C. Isby,    John M. Myrah and Henry Sokolski , "Transfers" 

SPC Summary of Roundtable with Dennis M., Aaron    Karp, Richard T. Cupitt, "Pathways for Transfer" 

SPC Summary of Roundtable with Robbin Laird, Tim    McCarthy, Keith Payne and David Smith, "Supplier Nations" 

System Planning Corporation, "An    Unclassified Assessment of France" 

System Planning Corporation, "An    Unclassified Assessment of Great Britain" 

System Planning Corporation, "An    Unclassified Assessment of Germany" 

System Planning Corporation, "An    Unclassified Assessment of Japan" 

System Planning Corporation, "An    Unclassified Assessment of South Korea" 

David R. Tanks, "Ballistic Missiles in South    Asia: Are ICBMs a Future Possibility?" 

Kenneth R. Timmerman, "Rogue States and    Ballistic Missiles: Lessons and Prospects" 

David C. Wright, "An Analysis of the North    Korean Missile Program"Attachment 3**A. R�sum�s of Commission    Members****The Honorable Donald H. Rumsfeld, Chairman**    Mr. Rumsfeld is Chairman of the Board of Directors of Gilead Sciences, Inc. Previously he    served in a variety of government posts, including: Naval Aviator (1954-57), Member of    Congress (1963-69), U.S. Ambassador to NATO (1972-74), White House Chief of Staff    (1974-75), Secretary of Defense (1975-77) and Presidential Envoy to the Middle East    (1983-84). He also served as Chairman of the Rand Corporation (1981-86; 1995-96) and as    Chairman and CEO of G. D. Searle & Co. (1977-85) and of General Instrument Corporation    (1990-93). He received the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 1977.**Dr. Barry M. Blechman**    Dr. Blechman is the president and founder of DFI International (in 1984) and chairman and    co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center beginning in 1989. He served as Assistant    Director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (1977-80). He was previously    affiliated with the U.S. Army (1964-66), the Center for Naval Analyses (1966-71) and    Brookings Institution (1971-77). He also was affiliated with the Carnegie Endowment    (1980-82) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (1982-84). He is the    author of Face Without War and The Politics of National Security, among others. Dr.    Blechman has a Ph.D. in international relations. **General Lee Butler, USAF (Ret.)**    General Butler served as the Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Strategic Command and    Strategic Air Command (1992-94) and as the Director of Strategic Plans and Policy on the    Joint Chiefs of Staff (1989-91). In 1987, he was the Director of Operations at USAF    Headquarters and served as the Inspector General of the Strategic Air Command (1984-86).    From 1982 to 1984, he was the Commander of the 96th and 320th Bomb    Wings. General Butler was an Olmsted Scholar.**Dr. Richard L. Garwin**    Dr. Garwin is a Senior Fellow for Science and Technology with the Council on Foreign    Relations. He has been an IBM Fellow Emeritus at the Thomas J. Watson Research Center    since 1993 and was a Fellow from 1952 to 1993. He has served as a member of the    President's Science Advisory Committee twice, from 1962 to 1965 and from 1969 to 1972, and    he served on the Defense Science Board (1966-69). In 1996, the U.S. Foreign Intelligence    Community awarded him the R.V. Jones Award for Scientific Intelligence, and the President    and the Department of Energy awarded him the Enrico Fermi Award. Dr. Garwin has a Ph.D. in    physics. **Dr. William R. Graham**    Dr. Graham is the Chairman of the Board and President of National Security Research (1996    to present). He previously was the Director of the White House Office of Science &    Technology Policy (1986-89) and the Deputy Administrator of NASA (1985-86). He has a Ph.D.    in electrical engineering. **Dr. William Schneider, Jr.**    Dr. Schneider is the President of International Planning Services, Inc. (1986 to present).    He previously served as the Under Secretary of State for Security Assistance (1982-86) and    the Chairman of the President's General Advisory Committee on Arms Control and Disarmament    (1987-93). He has a Ph.D. in economics.**General Larry D. Welch, USAF (Ret.)**    General Welch is the President and CEO of the Institute for Defense Analyses (1990 to    present). He previously served as the Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force (1986-90) and    the Commander in Chief of the U.S. Strategic Air Command (1985-86).**Dr. Paul D. Wolfowitz**    Dr. Wolfowitz is Dean of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at    Johns Hopkins University (1994 to present). He previously served as the Under Secretary of    Defense for Policy (1989-93), the U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia (1986-89), the Assistant    Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs (1982-86) and Director of the State    Department Policy Planning Staff (1981-82). He was a member of the Commission on the Roles    and Capabilities of the United States Intelligence Community (1995-95). He has a Ph.D. in    political science.**The Honorable R. James Woolsey**    Mr. Woolsey is a partner in the law firm of Shea & Gardner (1995 to present, 1991-93,    1979-89). He previously served as Director of Central Intelligence (1993-95), Ambassador    and U.S. Representative to the Negotiation on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe    (1989-91) and Under Secretary of the Navy (1977-79). He was a Delegate-at-Large to the    U.S.-Soviet START and Nuclear and Space Arms Talks (1983-85). He served as a member of the    Scowcroft Commission (Presidential Commission on Strategic Forces, 1983) and the Packard    Commission (Presidential Blue Ribbon Commission on Defense Management, 1985-86). 

**Core Staff**

Dr. Stephen A. Cambone, Staff Director. Senior    Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies (1993 to present). Director,    Strategic Defense Policy, Office of the Secretary of Defense (1990-93); Deputy Director of    Strategic Analysis, SRS Technologies (1986-90); Staff Analyst, Los Alamos National    Laboratory (1982-86). Ph.D. in political science.     Dr. Steven A. Maaranen. Policy Planning Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratory (1980 to    present). Chief, Defense and Space Division, U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency    (1987-88); Assistant Professor, Claremont McKenna College (1976-80). Ph.D. in political    science.    Eric Desautels. Member of Technical Staff of TASC, Inc. (1994-98). Masters in    international security.     David H. Dunham. National security analyst, TASC, Inc. (1994-98); Assistant Director of    the Eisenhower World Affairs Institute (1994); Special Assistant, Safe and Secure    Dismantlement Delegation, Deputy Executive Director, General Advisory Committee, U.S. Arms    Control and Disarmament Agency (1991-94).     Jason W. Roback. Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy and National    Security Research, Inc. (1997 to present). M.S. in defense and strategic studies.    Bernard C. Victory. Analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy (1988 to present).    Congressional Research Service (1987-88). M.A. in international affairs.    Delonnie Henry. Administrative Assistant, National Defense University (1993-98). M.Ed. 

**DCI Liaison**

Richard Haver. Chief of Staff of the National    Intelligence Council. Formerly: National Intelligence Officer for Special Activities,    Executive Director for Intelligence Community Affairs, Assistant to the Secretary of    Defense for Intelligence Policy and Deputy Director for Naval Intelligence. **B. Commission Meetings and Agendas**
DateSubject or Activity VisitorJan. 14Organization of Commission Jan. 15U.S. Technical Collection        Capabilities Simulation, Imagery Intelligence        (IMINT), Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) Foreign Instrumentation Signals Measures and Signature Intelligence        (MASINT) Jan. 29Russia Changing Political and Economic        Circumstances Military Changes Nuclear Doctrine Strategic Force Projections Warning, Inadvertent Launch,        Anti-Ballistic Missile Status C3I, Unauthorized and Accidental        Launch Jan. 30China Political Overview 
Taiwan Economic Overview Military Overview China's Space Program Nuclear Doctrine Force Structure and Projections Jan. 30 (cont.)Chinese C3I Feb. 4Deception and Denial Analytic Depth: China Feb. 5External Proliferation Concerns Technology Transfer and End Use China Hard Target Missile Program and Russian        Assistance Infrastructure and Government        Oversight Feb. 9Nuclear Programs Feb. 19Nonproliferation Center and        Methodological Challenges of Proliferation Russia The Spread of Underground Facilities        Hard Target Military, Missile and Technological        Infrastructure External Proliferation Concerns The Russian-Iranian Connection DateSubject or Activity VisitorMar. 4Iran Collection Challenges Ballistic Missile Program Engine Testing Missile Infrastructure Alternate Launch Modes Nuclear Program Biological Weapons Chemical Weapons Buyer, Seller, Broker Mar. 5North Korea Collection Challenges Ballistic Missile Program Buyer, Seller, Broker Forces and Doctrine Chemical Weapons Biological Weapons Nuclear Program Mar. 19The Honorable George Tenet Director of Central Intelligence Ambassador Rolf Ek�us Swedish Ambassador to the U.S. The Honorable Andrew Marshall Office of Net Assessment, Office of        the Secretary of Defense David Osias Defense Intelligence Officer David Ivry Director-General, Israeli Ministry        of Defense (Ret.) Mar. 24Saudi Arabia Algeria Egypt Libya Syria Mar. 25Meeting of Commissioners at the        National Security Agency Mar. 30Iraq Collection Overview IAEA/UNSCOM Inspection Program Missile Program Chemical Weapons Biological Weapons Nuclear Program Mar. 31India and Pakistan Hard Target Weapons of Mass Destruction:        Motivations, Decisionmakers and Doctrine Missile Systems: Capabilities and        Production India's Naval Development India's Space Program Foreign Proliferation Assistance Missile Forces in 2015 Chemical & Biological Weapons Nuclear Programs Mar. 31 (cont.)Broker and Seller: Issues of Safety        and Security Collection Overview Apr. 7Intelligence Process The Honorable "Pete"        Aldridge President and CEO, Aerospace        Corporation Project West Wing Iranian and North Korean Ballistic        Missile Program Ballistic Missile Technical Hurdles        and Work-a-Rounds Apr. 8Deception and Denial Yamantau and Russian Underground        Activity Apr. 16Admiral William Studeman Former DDCIHurdles of Long Range Ballistic        Missiles and Work-a-Rounds: - Liquid Rocket Propulsion 
- Solid Rocket Propulsion 
- Aerodynamics, Reentry Vehicle Design and Missile            Materials 
Russian Command and Control        Modernization Apr. 20Lt. Gen. Lester Lyles Director, Ballistic Missile Defense        Organization Lt. Gen. Patrick Hughes Director, Defense Intelligence        Agency Dr. Fred Ikl� Former Under Secretary of Defense        (Policy) Apr. 20 (cont.)Analysis of Pakistan's Ghauri/No        Dong Launch Apr. 21Emerging Long Range Threat to the        U.S. Boeing CorporationAmbassador Frank Wisner Former Ambassador to India and        Special Ambassador to Russia Apr. 27Counterintelligence Brief 
Industrial Espionage 

Legal Snooping 1993 No Dong flight Foreign Missile Threats Scope of Ballistic Missile        Proliferation Activities Nonproliferation Methodologies Dr. Sidney Drell Deputy Director, Stanford Linear        Accelerator Center May 7Foreign Missile Assessment Payload Fabrication and Delivery Commercial Space Launch Vehicles,        Peacekeeper Conversion Contemporaneous History of Iran's        Missile Programs May 8Gordon Oehler Former Director, CIA        Nonproliferation Center The Honorable William Reinsch Undersecretary of Commerce for        Export Administration May 18Naval Intelligence Briefing Contemporaneous History of North        Korea's Missile Program, Taepo Dong III Assessment Dr. William J. Perry Former Secretary of Defense Lt. General William Odom, U.S. Army        (Ret.) Former Director of NSA May 19Drafting of Final Report May 27Dr. James Schlesinger Former Secretary of Defense and        Director of Central Intelligence Drafting of Final Report Jun. 3Drafting of Final Report Jun. 4Dr. Harold Brown Former Secretary of Defense Drafting of Final Report Jun. 11Drafting of Final Report Jun. 16The Honorable Caspar Weinberger Former Secretary of Defense Drafting of Final Report Jun. 17Office Call with the Honorable        William S. Cohen Secretary of Defense 
The Pentagon Drafting of Final Report Jun. 23Information Warfare Dr. John Deutch Former DCIBrief on Israel Drafting of Final Report Jun. 24General Colin Powell, U.S. Army        (Ret.) Former Chairman, Joint Chiefs of        Staff General Brent Scowcroft, U.S. Air        Force (Ret.) Former National Security Advisor to        the President Cruise Missiles Drafting of Final Report Jun. 29Office Call with General Shelton Chairman, Joint Chief of Staff 
The Pentagon Drafting of Final Report Jun. 30Drafting of Final Report Jul. 7Office Call with the Honorable Sandy        Berger Assistant to the President for        National Security 
The White House Foreign Students in the United        States Jul. 8Information Warfare Space Reconnaissance Y2K Problem in Russia Collection Capabilities Jul. 15Deliver Report to Congress Senior Leadership of the U.S. Senate        and U.S. House of Representatives 
The        Capitol 
**C. Site    Visits**March 6: National Air Intelligence Center Wright Patterson Air    Force Base Dayton, Ohio    March 10: Sandia National Laboratories Kirtland Air Force Base Albuquerque, New Mexico    March 16: Aerospace Corporation Los Angeles, California    March 25: National Security Agency Fort Meade, Maryland    April 3: Center for International Security Affairs Los Alamos, New Mexico    April 22: National Reconnaissance Office Sterling, Virginia    May 6: Defense Intelligence Agency Briefing Andrews Air Force Base, Maryland     May 15: Missile and Space Intelligence Center Redstone Arsenal, Alabama    June 5: U.S. Space Command Colorado Springs, Colorado 

**D. Interviews**Dr. Edward C. "Pete" Aldridge, Jr., former Secretary of    the Air Force and Director of the National Reconnaissance Office

The Honorable Samuel A. "Sandy" Berger,    Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs 

The Honorable Dr. Harold Brown, former Secretary    of Defense 

The Honorable William S. Cohen, Secretary of    Defense 

The Honorable Dr. John Deutch, former Director of    Central Intelligence and Deputy Secretary of Defense 

Dr. Sidney Drell, Deputy Director, Stanford    Linear Accelerator Center 

Ambassador Rolf Ek�us, Swedish Ambassador to the    United States 

Lieutenant General Patrick Hughes, U.S. Army,    Director, Defense Intelligence Agency 

David Ivry, former Director-General of the    Ministry of Defense of Israel 

Dr. Frederick Ikl�, former Undersecretary of    Defense 

Lieutenant General Lester Lyles, U.S. Air Force,    Director, Ballistic Missile Defense Organization 

The Honorable Andrew Marshall, Director of Net    Assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense 

Lieutenant General William Odom, U.S. Army    (Ret.), former Director of the National Security Agency 

Gordon Oehler, former Director, Nonproliferation    Center, CIA 

David Osias, Defense Intelligence Officer for    Acquisition Support, Counter-proliferation and Arms Conrol 

The Honorable Dr. William J. Perry, former    Secretary of Defense 

General Colin A. Powell, former Chairman of the    Joint Chiefs of Staff and National Security Advisor to the President 

The Honorable William A. Reinsch, Undersecretary    of Commerce 

The Honorable Dr. James Schlesinger, former    Secretary of Defense, Director of Central Intelligence and Secretary of Energy 

General Brent Scowcroft, former National Security    Advisor to the President 

General Henry H. Shelton, USA, Chairman, Joint    Chiefs of Staff 

Admiral William Studeman, former Deputy Director    of Central Intelligence and Director, National Security Agency 

The Honorable George Tenet, Director of Central    Intelligence 

The Honorable Caspar Weinberger, former Secretary    of Defense 

Ambassador Frank Wisner, former U.S. Ambassador    to India 

**E.    Acknowledgments**The Commissioners wish to express their appreciation to the men    and women of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Over 300 of them took time to meet with the    Commissioners on the subject of the ballistic missile threat to the United States.    In particular, the Commissioners express their thanks to the Honorable George Tenet,    Director, Central Intelligence, and to the directors of the Defense Intelligence Agency,    National Security Agency, National Reconnaissance Office, National Imagery and Mapping    Agency and the Office of Naval Intelligence for making the time of their analysts    available to the Commission and for providing a level of access to information    infrequently granted.    Special thanks are extended to Rich Haver, the DCI's liaison to the Commission. His    knowledge of the issues, familiarity with the ways of the Intelligence Community and his    unfailing good humor made the task of the Commission far easier than it might otherwise    have been. The Commissioners would like to thank those analysts and managers of the CIA,    DIA, NSA, NRO and NIMA who served as the points of contact for their respective agencies.    Their efforts to schedule briefings and to provide information is greatly appreciated.    The Commissioners would also like to thank the support staff provided by the Central    Intelligence Agency who served in the Commission office and all the people of Printing and    Production Graphics who designed and published the final version of the Report.             |
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