NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Pathway and Resource Overview

Delivering Renewable 

Hydrogen Workshop –

A Focus on Near-Term 

Applications

Mark F. Ruth

November 16, 2009

Palm Springs, CA

NREL/PR-6A1-47108
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

Definition and Presentation Outline

Hydrogen pathway analysis is analysis of the total 

levelized cost (including return on investment), well-towheels (WTW) energy use, and WTW emissions for 

hydrogen production, delivery, and distribution pathways.

This presentation focuses on

• Pathway analyses using the Macro-System Model (MSM)

• Resource and pathway analysis using the Hydrogen 

Demand and Resource Analysis Tool (HyDRA)

• Status of water-electrolysis technology

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MSM: Hydrogen Macro-System Model

Modeling tool that supports DOE Hydrogen Program and 

stakeholder decision-making by performing rapid crosscutting analysis while providing consistency, data assurance, 

and an easy-to-use tool for sensitivity analysis

– Consistency provided by utilizing and linking other models

• Current version performs pathway analyses

• It links H2A Production, the Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model 

(HDSAM), and ANL’s Greenhouse Gas, Regulated Emissions, and Energy 

Use for Transportation (GREET) model

• Models estimate “nth plant” costs so the assumption is that the extra 

expenses for process integration, permitting, and process guarantees for firstof-a-kind plants have been eliminated.

– Data assurance provided by documentation of data in each of the 

foundational models and data validation with industrial partners

• Pathway report at http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/46612.pdf presents 

results of the current status for seven hydrogen pathways and shows many 

sensitivities around those results.

– Ease-of-use provided by web-based graphical user interface (GUI)

• Available at http://h2-msm.ca.sandia.gov/

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GUI Allows All Users To Perform Pathway Analyses

Initial input

– Technology

• Production

• Delivery

– City size

– Fuel Economy

Defaults

– Model defaults

– National 

averages

– Users can 

modify as 

desired

MSM available to the analysis community at http://h2-msm.ca.sandia.gov/

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GUI Results – Central Electrolysis / Wind Power

Single-value results for central hydrogen production via electrolysis from 

wind-electricity and delivered via pipeline are shown. Many other results 

are available but not shown by the GUI

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Comparative Fuel Cost and GHG Emissions

Central Biomass - Liquid 

Trucks

Central Biomass - Pipelines

Central Coal w/ CCS - 

Pipeline

Distributed Electrolysis

Central Natural Gas - 

Pipeline

Distributed Natural Gas

Wind Electricity 

Electrolysis - Pipeline

Gasoline HEV

Gasoline ICE

Diesel

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

$0.000 $0.020 $0.040 $0.060 $0.080 $0.100 $0.120 $0.140 $0.160 $0.180

Levelized Cost of Hydrogen and Market Price of Gasoline & Diesel ($ / mile without fuel taxes)

WTW Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g / mile)

Biomass

Coal

Grid Electricity

Natural Gas

Wind Electricity

Gasoline

Diesel

Figure shows results based on current technology status scaled to full utilization of production capacity as 

represented in H2A and HDSAM. Parameter values referenced at http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/46612.pdf

Stochastic analysis can be run to estimate variability of each result.

* Gasoline and diesel prices are from AEO 2007 high projections for 2009 and do not include fuel taxes

($6.05 / kg H2)

($4.88 / kg H2)

($1.88 / gal)*

($4.23 / kg H2)

($2.14 / gal)*

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Distributed Electrolysis Cost & GHG Breakdown

Purchasing electricity is the 

largest driver of hydrogen cost so 

reducing electricity purchase price 

and increasing electrolysis 

efficiency have the greatest 

potential for reducing cost.

Generating electricity for 

hydrogen production generates 

96% of the WTW greenhouse 

gases (GHG) based on the US 

average grid mix. Electrolysis 

efficiency and grid mix have the 

greatest potential for reducing 

GHGs.

WTW Emissions (Distributed Electrolysis)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Electricity Generation Hydrogen Production Compression, Storage,

Dispensing

g/GGE

CO2 CH4 N2O

Basis: 1500 kg/day design capacity, production electricity use of 53.44 kWh/kg H2 (62% efficiency – LHV basis), electricity cost 

of $0.055/kWh, electrolyzer system capital cost of $675/kW, total capital investment of $2,730,000, and 2005 US$

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Cost Sensitivities

Improved system efficiency and 

reduced capital cost have the 

potential to reduce the levelized cost. 

Electricity price has the greatest 

effect on levelized cost of hydrogen 

but it is driven by location and 

policies. 

Basis: 1500 kg/day design capacity, production electricity use of 53.44 kWh/kg H2 (62% efficiency – LHV 

basis), electricity cost of $0.055/kWh, electrolyzer system capital cost of $675/kW, and 2005 US$

$5.00

$5.40

$5.80

$6.20

$6.60

$7.00

58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67%

Electrolyzer System Efficiency (% LHV)

Levelized Cost of Hydrogen ($/kg)

$5.00

$5.40

$5.80

$6.20

$6.60

$7.00

$1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $4,000,000

Total Capital Investment ($)

Levelized Cost of Hydrogen ($/kg)

$5.00

$5.40

$5.80

$6.20

$6.60

$7.00

$0.040 $0.045 $0.050 $0.055 $0.060 $0.065 $0.070

Electricity Price ($ / kWh)

Levelized Cost of Hydrogen ($/kg)

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HyDRA: Hydrogen Demand and Resource Analysis Tool

Web-based geographic information system (GIS) tool that 

allows analysts, decision-makers, and general users to 

view, download, and analyze hydrogen demand, resource, 

and infrastructure data spatially and dynamically.

It is a repository for spatial data inputs and results and is 

designed to display and aggregate that data

HyDRA can be accessed at http://rpm.nrel.gov. The user 

must request a login ID and password.

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Industrial Electricity Price by US County

Grid mix and electricity cost vary 

– HyDRA provides layers with residential, commercial, and industrial electricity cost from EPA

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Distributed Electrolysis Cost by US County

Industrial electricity price by county was entered into the MSM to generate levelized costs of hydrogen by 

distributed electrolysis.

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Distributed Electrolysis GHG Emissions

HyDRA also has grid mix by state. Grid mix was entered into the MSM to estimate WTW GHG emissions. 

HyDRA now has county-level data and that data will be used to generate a new layer.

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Distributed Electrolysis Cost and Emissions

Overlaying levelized cost and GHG emissions indicates opportunities for distributed electrolysis.

The MSM and HyDRA are being linked to allow users to vary electrolysis capital cost and efficiency.

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Electrolysis Independent Review

• NREL commissions independent reviews at DOE’s request

• Recently, a review of central and distributed electrolysis status was 

completed. 

• Four independent experts reviewed information provided by electrolysis 

system providers, interviews, public data, and their own knowledge to estimate 

the current status of central and distributed production.

• They concluded that “significant technology advancements in reducing capital 

costs and improving efficiency have led to substantially improved electrolysis 

production costs.”

• Their results and rationale are presented in a report available at 

http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/peer_reviews.html

H2A Levelized 

Cost

Panel’s Cost Range Panel’s Base-Case 

Estimate

Distributed Electrolysis 

(1500 kg/day)

$6.05 / kg $4.90 - $5.70 / kg $5.20 / kg

Central Electrolysis 

(50,000 kg/day)

$4.50 / kg $2.70 - $3.50 / kg $3.00 / kg

Panel’s Conclusions

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Improvements Panel Identified for Dist. Electrolysis

H2A Vendor Range Panel Base 

Case Value

Effect on levelized 

cost

Electrolyzer System 

Capital Cost

$675 / 

kW

$170 - $420 / kW $360 / kW -$0.61 / kg H2

Electrolyzer System 

Electricity Use (kWh / 

kg)

53.4 48 – 59 50 -$0.19 / kg H2

Electrolyzer System 

Efficiency (LHV)

62% 57% - 70% 67% Same as above

Maintenance, 

replacement, CSD, and 

water requirements

-$0.05 / kg H2

Basis: 1500 kg/day design capacity, electricity cost of $0.055/kWh, and 2005 US$

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Conclusions

• MSM performs pathway analysis and gives users the 

ability to vary many input parameters

• HyDRA provides spatial resource data and some spatial 

pathway results

• MSM and HyDRA are being linked to allow users to run 

pathway analyses and sensitivities with spatial results 

• An independent review panel has identified 

improvements made since the H2A cases were 

developed that make electrolysis more attractive.

• The MSM and HyDRA will be demonstrated this evening.

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Acknowledgements

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of 

Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable 

Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, 

LLC.

The author would like to thank Johanna Levene from 

NREL for the description of HyDRA and for interactions 

necessary to produce the HyDRA example.

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Questions

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Supporting Slides

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Comparative Petroleum Use and GHG Emissions

Central Natural Gas - 

Pipeline

Distributed Natural Gas

Central Coal w/ CCSPipeline

Distributed Electrolysis

Wind Electricity 

Electrolysis - Pipeline

Central Biomass - 

Pipeline

Central Biomass - Liquid 

Trucks

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

WTW Petroleum Energy Use (Btu / mile)

WTW Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g / mile)

Natural Gas

Coal

Grid Electricity

Wind Electricity

Biomass

Gasoline ICE

 5300 Btu/mile Petroleum Use

 480 g/mile GHG emissions

Gasoline Hybrid

 3600 Btu/mile Petroleum Use

 330 g/mile GHG emissions

Diesel ICE

 4500 Btu/mile Petroleum Use

 410 g/mile GHG emissions

Corn E85 Flex-Fuel ICE

 1700 Btu/mile Petroleum Use

 390 g/mile GHG emissions

Stover E85 Flex-Fuel ICE

 1700 Btu/mile Petroleum Use

 170 g/mile GHG emissions

Most hydrogen technologies use less petroleum and are 

likely to produce fewer GHG emissions than other fuels.

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$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

150 200 250 300 350

WTW GHG, g/mile

H2 Levelized Cost, $/kg

Stochastic Analysis

MSM allows stochastic analysis to present results in ranges – necessary 

to quantify the results’ variability

Example Scenario: 

– Advanced distributed SMR production technology case with a fuel 

economy of 50-70 mile/kg H2

Varied inputs: 

– Total capital investment; Operating and maintenance costs; Capacity 

factor; Production efficiency; Natural gas cost; Vehicle fuel economy

Input Distribution Result Distribution Result Scatter Plot

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

150 200 250 300 350

WTW GHG, g/mile 

Probability

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

3.4 3.8 4.3 4.7 5.1

Production Efficiency (Nm3

/kg H2)

Probability

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