Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Great Lakes Region

March 2017

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - March 2017 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

Despite near-normal temperatures in December and 

a cold first half of January, winter 2016-17 will be 

remembered for the unseasonably warm weather in 

late January through February. Toronto, ON recorded 

its highest ever February temperature of 19°C (66°F) on 

February 23. As did three other stations on February 

24: Syracuse, NY with a temperature of 22°C (71°F), 

Binghamton, NY with a temperature of 21°C (70°F), and 

Erie, PA with a temperature of 25°C (77°F). Erie’s record 

was also its warmest winter day on record. Chicago, IL 

experienced the longest stretch of consecutive days that 

were 18°C (65°F) or higher from February 17-22. During 

the February 18-25 time period, several stations in the 

southern Canadian basin were marked as extremely 

above normal.

The above-normal temperatures resulted in minimal 

ice cover on the Great Lakes. As of February 28, the 

maximum ice cover extent this winter only reached 

15.3%, which is significantly lower than the long-term (since 1973) average of 55%. However, March could bring additional ice growth if 

temperatures are cold enough. 

The above-normal temperatures resulted in less snowfall than normal in many locations across the basin. Racine, WI recorded no snow 

in February, which has only happened one other time (in 1998) since records began in 1914. However, the open waters of the Great Lakes 

contributed to several episodes of heavy lake-effect snowfall. One of those events was from February 1-4, when up to 193 cm (76 in) of snow 

fell east of Lake Ontario and a state of emergency was declared for Oswego County (NY). 

 Great Lakes Significant Events - for December 2016 - February 2017

Precipitation & Snowfall

Regional Climate Overview - for December 2016 - February 2017

December temperatures ranged from near normal to 2°C (4°F) above 

normal; however, the southern Lake Michigan basin was colder. In 

January and February, temperatures ranged from 1°C (2°F) to more than 

6°C (11°F) above normal. The northeastern Superior basin was warmest 

in January, while the western Erie and southern Michigan basins were 

warmest in February. 

Water level 

statistics based on 

1918-2016.

Temperature In December, all lake basins except 

Erie received near- to above-normal 

precipitation. The entire Great Lakes 

basin received near- to above-normal 

precipitation in January and February, 

with much falling as rain. Despite 

precipitation being near to above normal, 

snowfall varied. December snowfall was 

near to above normal for much of the 

basin, while January snowfall was generally 

near to below normal. February snowfall 

ranged from less than 25% in the Erie, 

Michigan, and southern Huron basins to 200% of normal in parts of the 

Superior basin. Winter snowfall ranged from 25% to 175% of normal.

Snowfall normals based on 1981-2010.

Dec 2016-Feb 2017 Snowfall: 

Percent of Normal (%)

Great Lakes Water Levels

Air temperature normals based on 1981-2010. Water temperature LTA from 1992-2016.

Lake

End of Feb. 2017 

Compared to:

Change since 

December 1st

Average Last Year 2016/17 Average

Superior +20 cm 

(+7.9 in)

-4 cm 

(-1.6 in)

-14 cm 

(-5.5 in)

-20 cm 

(-7.9 in)

MichiganHuron+23 cm 

(+9.1 in)

-6 cm 

(-2.4 in)

-6 cm 

(-2.4 in)

-7 cm 

(-2.8 in)

Erie +41 cm 

(+16.1 in)

+10 cm 

(+3.9 in)

+24 cm 

(+9.4 in)

+3 cm 

(+1.2 in)

Ontario +31 cm 

(+12.2 in)

+1 cm 

(+0.4 in)

+47 cm 

(+18.5 in)

+9 cm 

(+3.5 in)

Ice Cover

Although ice cover peaked above 

the long-term average (LTA: 1973-

2016) in a few areas on the Great 

Lakes in December, ice cover on most 

of the Lakes was well below the LTA 

during December-February. Ice cover 

peaked at 15.3% during this period 

(on February 8) and lakes Erie and St. 

Clair became essentially ice free on 

February 23.

Feb 2017: 

Dep. from Normal

Dec 2016-Feb 2017: Diff. from Avg (%)

Dec 2016-Feb 2017: 

Dep. from Normal
Regional Impacts - for December 2016 - February 2017

Regional Outlook - for April - June 2017 Great Lakes Region Partners

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)

www.ec.gc.ca

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

www.agr.gc.ca 

Midwestern Regional Climate Center

mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Great Lakes Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

www.glerl.noaa.gov

NOAA Great Lakes Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

North Central River Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc

Ohio River Forecast Center

www.weather.gov/ohrfc 

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Office for Coastal Management

http://coast.noaa.gov/

Great Lakes Integrated Sciences & Assessments

www.glisa.umich.edu

US Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District

www.lre.usace.army.mil

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

USDA Midwest Climate Hub

https://www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/midwest

Contact for NOAA: 

Molly Woloszyn: mollyw@illinois.edu

Samantha Borisoff: samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu

Contact for ECCC: 

ec.enviroinfo.ec@canada.ca

Contact Information

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - March 2017 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and 

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) 

predict greater than normal chances for abovenormal temperatures across the entire Great Lakes 

basin for the April through June time period. The 

CPC outlook says there are better chances for 

above-normal precipitation in the extreme western 

U.S. basin, while ECCC does not have a clear signal 

whether precipitation in the Canadian basin will be 

above, near, or below normal for April through June. 

The current monthly and seasonal outlooks can be 

found through CPC and ECCC. 

Agriculture

The significantly warmer-than-normal temperatures in February caused 

an early dormancy break to some overwintering annual and perennial 

crops in the southern Great Lakes basin. If the warmth persists and 

growth continues in early spring, there is an increased risk for freeze 

damage during March, April, and May. For instance, in 2012, an early 

spring followed by a series of hard 

frosts wiped out 80% of the apple crop 

and 90% of the cherry crop in Ontario. 

Similarly, many fruit crops were severely 

damaged in Michigan. The unseasonably 

mild conditions allowed maple syrup 

farms to tap trees in February, but many 

producers worry it could be a short 

season. 

Transportation

January lake-effect snowfall events caused significant transportation 

issues in both Buffalo, NY and Toronto, ON. In the Buffalo area, 61 cm (2 

ft) of snow fell in just 6 to 8 hours on January 5, causing a traffic standstill 

during the evening commute and hundreds of children were stranded at 

school or on buses for several hours. Lake-effect snow also caused a 100+ 

vehicle pile-up just east of Toronto on the 7th. An ice road from Bayfield, 

WI to Madeline Island was not able to open and the ferry ran all winter 

for the 2nd year in a row due to warmer-than-normal conditions.

Wildlife

The unseasonably warm temperatures 

impact wildlife and migration. Reports 

show the American Woodcock is already 

back in Michigan after the winter, which is 

extremely early. Woodcock tend to follow the 

receding snowline north, which makes them 

vulnerable to late season snowstorms this year.

Coastal Erosion 

Lake ice typically helps protect beaches and beach habitats. This winter’s 

ice is only shoreline surface ice so instead of protecting the beaches, the 

ice is scouring away the shoreline when it is pushed by wind and waves. 

Park officials in Presque Isle State Park (Erie, PA) are having to increase 

shoreline management to ensure the beaches are usable for residents.

Recreation & Tourism

Low ice cover caused by warmer temperatures 

has impacted recreation. The Michigan Pond 

Hockey Classic, a tournament that brings up to 

7,000 people to Whitmore Lake every year, had 

to cancel the event due to thin ice for a 2nd 

year in a row. Ice fishing in western Lake Erie is 

typically a big attraction but the business has 

struggled this winter due to inadequate ice cover.

Water Levels

Great Lakes water levels typically climb in the spring 

months as temperature and runoff increases and 

evaporation decreases. All of the Great Lakes are 

expected to remain above average in the April-June 

2017 time period unless exceedingly dry conditions 

are experienced.

Temperature & Precipitation

Fire Potential

Graphic (left): Potential range for water levels for Apr-June 2017 

compared to the long-term average (1918-2016). 

The early spring and warmer temperatures, combined with the lack 

of snowfall and snow cover, could mean dry conditions across the 

basin. As a result, the Great Lakes basin could enter the spring fire 

season earlier than usual due to these factors and the forecasted 

above-normal temperatures in April. Any dry and windy periods of 

weather during April could produce an increased risk for wildfire 

activity. 

Ripe tart cherries in Michigan (Photo: 

AgBio Research Program, MSU)

Lake Erie in 2015 when ice was 

more plentiful (Photo: Epic Ice 

Fishing Adventures)

The American Woodcock 

(Photo: Audubon.org)

CPC April-June 2017 

Temperature Outlook

33-50%: Probability of 

Above Normal

ECCC April-June 2017 

Temperature Outlook

40-70%: Probability of 

Above Normal

Minnesota wildfire in 2015 

(Photo: James Silverstone, USFS)