Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Great Lakes Region

June 2016

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - June 2016 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

 Great Lakes Significant Events - for March - May 2016

Precipitation

Regional Climate Overview - for March - May 2016

The start of Spring 2016 was wet and warm in the 

Great Lakes basin, with several cities in Ontario 

experiencing record rainfall, including Barrie, 

Petawawa, and Windsor. In the U.S., Wisconsin and 

Michigan experienced their 2nd and 4th wettest March 

overall, respectively. However, April and May brought 

some cold spells, late-season snowfall, and drier 

conditions. There were widespread freeze events in 

early April that caused some damage to agriculture. In 

contrast, May also brought record-breaking warmth 

to portions of the basin. Superior (WI) reached 35°C 

(95°F) on May 6, shattering the previous daily record of 

30°C (86°F) set in 1918. On the same day, Upsala (ON) 

set a new record for the earliest date to reach 30°C 

(86°F) or higher.

The warmer temperatures in March contributed 

to an early snowmelt, higher than normal rainfall 

amounts in many areas, and an increase in runoff. 

These all contributed to an early seasonal rise in water 

levels, and helped raise each of the Great Lakes to their highest March levels since the late 1990s. However, drier conditions in April, with 

the exception of Lake Erie, and all the Great Lakes in May, slowed or ended the seasonal rise. Nonetheless, Great Lakes water levels generally 

remained above average throughout this past quarter.

While the spring season was mostly quiet in terms of severe weather, an early-season EF1 tornado touched down on March 16 west of Mount 

Forest in southwestern Ontario. This tornado set the record for the earliest tornado of the year to occur in Ontario, beating the previous record 

of March 19. A prolonged episode of freezing rain occurred in southcentral Ontario on March 24 and reported ice accretions were as high as 35 

mm (1.3 in). The weight of the ice brought down tree limbs and power lines, knocking out power to over 100,000 customers.

March was a mild month, with temperatures 1°C (2°F) to 5°C (9°F) 

above normal. The eight states that border the Great Lakes all ranked 

this March among their top 10 warmest. Temperatures were much 

cooler in April, ranging from 4°C (7°F) below normal to near normal. 

Milder temperatures returned in May, with most areas near normal to 

2°C (4°F) above normal. Spring temperatures ranged from near normal 

to 2°C (4°F) above normal.

Water level statistics based on 1918-2015. 

March 2016 Temp: Dep. from Normal Air Temperature

All lake basins saw above-average precipitation in March, with the overall basin receiving 

155% of average. In April and May, all lake basins experienced below-average precipitation. 

The Great Lakes basin saw 78% of average precipitation in April and 67% of average in May. 

Spring precipitation was near to below average for all lake basins, with the overall basin 

receiving 95% of average. 

March and May 2016 graphics are shown to display the range in precipitation this spring. 

Precipitation normals based on 1981-2010.

March and April 2016 graphics are shown to display the range in temperatures this spring. 

Temperature normals based on 1981-2010.

March (A) and May (B) 

Precipitation: 

Percent of Normal (%)

Great Lakes Water Levels

The spring season began wet but ended dry 

in the Great Lakes Basin. Despite the dry 

conditions, all of the Great Lakes ended the 

season above average with the exception of 

Lake Ontario, which ended the season 1 cm 

(0.4 in) below average but remained 17 cm 

(6.7 in) higher than this time last year. Lake 

Superior ended the season 13 cm (5.1 in) 

above average but 6 cm (2.4 in) below last 

year. Lakes Michigan-Huron and Erie both 

ended the season 33 cm (13 in) above average. 

They were 19 cm (7.5 in) and 21 cm (8.3 in) 

higher than last year, respectively. 

April 2016 Temp: Dep. from Normal

A B
Regional Impacts - for March - May 2016

Regional Outlook - for July - September 2016 Great Lakes Region Partners

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)

www.ec.gc.ca

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

www.agr.gc.ca 

Midwestern Regional Climate Center

mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Great Lakes Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncei.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

www.glerl.noaa.gov

NOAA Great Lakes Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

North Central River Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc

Ohio River Forecast Center

www.weather.gov/ohrfc 

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Office for Coastal Management

http://coast.noaa.gov/

Great Lakes Integrated Sciences & Assessments

www.glisa.umich.edu

US Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District

www.lre.usace.army.mil

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

Contact for NOAA: 

Molly Woloszyn: mollyw@illinois.edu

Samantha Borisoff: samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu

Contact for ECCC: 

greatlakes-grandslacs@canada.ca

enviroinfo@canada.ca

Contact Information

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - June 2016 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

Above-normal temperatures are predicted for the July-September period by the Climate 

Prediction Center (CPC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for the Great 

Lakes basin. CPC and ECCC both indicate the signal is less clear on whether July-September 

precipitation will be above, near, or below normal in the basin. However, due to the abovenormal temperature outlook, as well as the current abnormally dry conditions, CPC indicates 

there is a chance for drought development in the U.S. western Lake Superior basin during the 

July-September period. The current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks can be 

found through the Climate Prediction Center and Environment and Climate Change Canada.

Agriculture

The combination of a mild 

winter and above-average 

temperatures in March 

resulted in some Great Lakes 

agriculture being at risk during 

waves of freezing temperatures 

in April and May. In Michigan, 

initial assessments following 

two early-April freeze 

events did not indicate any 

widespread severe damage. However, considerable fruit bud loss was 

reported in early plums and apricots. Some damage was also reported 

in peaches, and both sweet and tart cherries. Later in the season in 

mid-May, a late-season freeze event in Minnesota resulted in frost 

injury to corn. However, overall corn yield in these areas this season is 

not expected to be affected by this frost injury. 

Shipping

As of May 1, there were 57 westbound transits

at the U.S. Eisenhower Lock in Massena (NY) by 

saltwater vessels, which is approximately seven 

transits above the 2011-2015 5-year average. In 

fact, the 57 westbound transits is the first time 

since the 2013 shipping season that there were 

transits made by vessels in March. The past two 

shipping seasons, the St. Lawrence Seaway 

and the locks along the Seaway were late 

opening due to severe ice conditions and the 

westbound transits did not begin until early 

April. 

Impacts of Higher Water Levels

Water levels on lakes Superior and MichiganHuron have staged a remarkable rise since the low level period from 

1999-2013. The increase is due to a combination of factors, including 

persistently wet weather in terms of precipitation and runoff, and 

weather conditions that have slowed evaporation from the surface 

of the lake. Periods of high water levels are beneficial for coastal 

wetlands because natural fluctuations are considered essential to 

maintain habitat diversity. Other positive high water impacts include 

reduced dredging at marinas, greater accessibility for recreational 

boaters, and increased vessel loads for commercial shippers (9.7% 

higher in April than a year ago). On the other hand, high lake levels 

result in reduced beach width, which shrinks space for recreation and 

can lead to increased beach erosion as the impacts of waves occur 

further landward. Bluff erosion is one 

issue in particular that is now on the radar 

for many shoreline owners. Higher water 

levels and storms may also increase the 

risk of damage due to flooding of coastal 

properties and infrastructure.

Lake Levels

Water levels typically peak in the summer 

months before beginning to decline at the 

end of summer as water supplies to the lakes 

tend to decrease, mainly due to increasing 

evaporation and reduced runoff. This summer, 

lakes Michigan-Huron and Erie water levels 

are expected to be well above average unless 

the summer is exceedingly dry. Lakes Superior 

and Ontario are projected to be slightly 

above average unless exceedingly wet or dry 

conditions are experienced this summer. 

Temperature & Precipitation

High water on Lake Erie on 

7/9/2015 (Photo: Ohio Sea Grant)

Harmful Algal Blooms

Potential range for water levels for July-Sept 2016 

compared to the long-term average (1918-2015). 

The harmful algal bloom (HAB) season 

in the Great Lakes peaks annually in 

late summer. The severity of HABs are 

dependent on phosphorus and nitrogen 

inputs from March 1-July 31 (the “loading 

season”). Conditions can change quickly, so 

a Lake Erie HAB bulletin is updated weekly

with the latest information. On July 7, 

NOAA will officially announce the predicted 

western Lake Erie HAB season outlook for 

2016. Resource and public health managers 

can use these outlooks to plan for toxic 

blooms this summer, which could affect 

human and 

animal health. 

Apricot buds before (left) and after (right) an 

early-April 2016 freeze in Michigan (Photo: Mark 

Longstroth, Michigan State Extension)

Algal bloom on Lake 

St. Clair in July 2015 

(Photo: NASA)

The U.S. Eisenhower 

Lock (Photo: Wikipedia 

Commons)