Contacts: 

Molly Woloszyn (mollyw@illinois.edu)

Samantha Borisoff (samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu)

Great Lakes Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

Dec. 2013 (Experimental) 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Great Lakes Region

Dec. 2013 (Experimental)

Contact: Environment Canada

Public Inquiries

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

416-739-4826 enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca

 Great Lakes Significant Events - for September - November 2013

Precipitation Great Lakes Water Levels

Regional Climate Overview - for September - November 2013

There were contrasting conditions across the 

Great Lakes basin over the fall season, yet water 

levels on all the Great Lakes remained well above 

last year’s levels and near or above chart datum 

throughout the quarter. The largest gain from last 

year has been on Lake Michigan-Huron, which is 

38 cm (15 in) higher entering December compared 

to this time last year when it set a new record low. 

Nonetheless, Michigan-Huron remains well below 

its long-term average, whereas all of the other lakes 

have been within 8 cm (~3 in) of their long-term 

averages throughout the fall season.

On November 16th-18th, a storm system tracked 

across the Great Lakes basin and brought widespread regional impacts including strong winds, 

heavy rainfall, and tornadoes. High westerly winds 

in excess of 111 km/hr (69 mph) pushed water on 

Lake Erie from one end of the lake to the other 

causing water levels on the west end of the lake to 

fall by nearly 1.2 m (4 ft), while levels on the east 

end at Buffalo, NY rose by close to 1.4 m (4.5 ft). At 

the same time, high wind gusts created large waves 

on eastern Lake Michigan. A rare November tornado outbreak was also associated with this system on November 17th, where there were 72 

tornadoes in the U.S., some of which occurred within the Great Lakes basin. In addition, heavy rain in excess of 100 mm (3.9 in) fell over portions 

of northern Michigan, causing localized flooding. This type of widespread extreme event may become more common in a changing climate. 

The Great Lakes are typically in their period 

of seasonal decline during the autumn 

months. At the end of November, Lake 

Superior was 6 cm (2.4 in) below average, 

having fallen 10 cm (3.9 in) since the start of 

September, which is 1 cm (0.4 in) more than 

average. Wet conditions over Lake MichiganHuron caused a decline of only 8 cm (3.1 in), 

compared to the usual 18 cm (7.1 in), but the 

lake remained 34 cm (13.4 in) below average 

at the end of the quarter. Both lakes Erie and 

Ontario fell more than normal during the 

quarter, but both were within 3 cm (1.2 in) of 

their average levels to start December.

During fall, the Great Lakes basin 

precipitation was 104% of average (based on 

1900-2010). Michigan-Huron received 112% 

of its average fall precipitation, while Erie 

and Ontario received 102% of average and 

Superior received 91% of average. All lake 

basins received below-average precipitation 

in September, with 82% of average in the 

basin. In October, all lake basins received 

above-average precipitation, with 141% of 

average in the basin. November was drier 

than average with the exception of MichiganHuron, with 93% of average in the basin.

For Sept.-Nov. 2013, departures of surface 

water temperatures on the Great Lakes 

ranged from -1.3°C (-29.7°F) to +3.4°C 

(+38.1°F) (compared to the long-term 

average from 1995-2013). Although a large 

portion of the lakes had a small positive 

deviation from the long-term average for 

fall (shown in gray), around 74% of the 

surface water temperatures were above the 

long-term average while 26% were below 

the long-term average. 

Precip map normals based on 1981-2010 and lake surface temperature normals based on 1995-2013.

Canada/Great Lakes precip data: Canadian Precipitation Analysis. U.S. precip data: interpolated station data. Water level statistics based on 1918-2012.

Stone Lab on Lake Erie: 11/1/13

Photo: Ohio Sea Grant

Precipitation: Percent of Normal (%) Average Lake Surface Temperature: 

Departure from Long-Term Average (°C)

Sept. 1-Nov. 30, 2013

Lake Surface Temperature
Regional Impacts - for September - November 2013

Regional Outlook - for Winter 2013/2014 Great Lakes Region Partners

Environment Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

www.agr.gc.ca 

Midwestern Regional Climate Center

www.mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Great Lakes Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.nws.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

www.glerl.noaa.gov

NOAA Great Lakes Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

North Central River Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Integrated Sciences & Assessments

www.glisa.umich.edu

US Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District

www.lre.usace.army.mil

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

Great Lakes Water Level Dashboard

www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/now/wlevels/dbd/

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Contacts: 

Molly Woloszyn (mollyw@illinois.edu)

Samantha Borisoff (samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu)

Great Lakes Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

Dec. 2013 (Experimental) 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports Contact: Environment Canada

Public Inquiries

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

416-739-4826 enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca

For the winter of 2013/14, NOAA’s Great 

Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory 

projects maximum ice coverage of the Great 

Lakes to be 57% to 62% by February, which 

is a little above the long-term average max 

ice cover of 55%. 

Water Quality

Toxins from algal blooms on 

western Lake Erie impacted 

water treatment plants along 

the shoreline in October, 

causing some cities to spend 

more money to make sure 

their drinking water is safe. In 

October, one township in Ohio 

cautioned its 2,000 residents 

not to drink or use water coming from their taps. This is believed to be the first time that a city in 

Ohio has banned its residents from using the water because of toxins 

from algae in the lake. Climate change and heavier rains, leading to 

increased runoff, could increase the occurrence of toxic and nuisance 

algal blooms in the future, which is why updating and implementing 

new phosphorus loading targets is a key deliverable under the new 

Canada-U.S. Great Lakes Water Agreement (http://www.ec.gc.ca/

grandslacs-greatlakes/).

Shipping

Great Lakes water levels for the Sept.-Nov. 2013 period are well 

above the low levels that were being experienced during the same 

period one year ago. While the increasing water levels have helped 

to alleviate shipping concerns at critical locations throughout the 

system, shippers still continue to have to take into consideration low 

levels on Lake Michigan-Huron 

when loading. Shipping is not 

only impacted by long-term and 

seasonal lake level fluctuations, but 

short-period changes as well, such 

as the one that occurred on Lake 

Erie on November 17th and 18th 

that pushed water from one end 

of the lake to the other. This event grounded a shipping vessel near 

Sandusky, OH.

Infrastructure & Transportation

Heavy rains and strong winds on November 17th wreaked havoc 

across the eastern Upper Peninsula in Michigan and the Sault Ste. 

Marie area in Ontario where there were flooded roads, power 

outages, and interruptions to communication throughout the region. 

Traffic was also interrupted on the Mackinac Bridge as high winds 

prevented semi-trucks and 

other high-profile vehicles 

from crossing the 8 km (5 

mi) bridge.

Lake Level Outlook 

Temperature & 

Precipitation Outlook

Current projections for the winter months 

indicate that Lake Superior will likely remain 

below average, but a wet winter could result 

in levels on Lake Superior rising slightly above 

average in the next quarter. A prolonged 

period of above-average water supplies will 

be required to return the water levels of Lake 

Michigan-Huron to its long-term average, but 

current projections show virtually no risk of the 

record lows experienced last winter. Lakes Erie 

and Ontario are expected to remain within 8 

cm (~3 in.) of their long-term averages through 

the next quarter.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center and 

Environment Canada are both forecasting 

equal chances for above, below, or near 

normal precipitation and temperature 

in their respective basins throughout 

January-March 2014. On a monthly scale, 

Environment Canada is forecasting all three 

months to have equal chances as well for 

the Canadian basin. 

Outlook from the US Army Corps of Engineers 

and Environment Canada (Winter 2013/14) 

Above: Algal bloom in Lake Erie - 9/20/13; 

photo courtesy of Ohio Sea Grant

Above: Depiction of wind set-up; 

courtesy of Environment Canada

Ice Cover Outlook

Right: A bridge in Sault Ste. 

Marie, MI on 11/17/13

Photo courtesy of Jim Lehocky

Satellite imagery courtesy of 

NASA Visible Earth

Projections based on statistical regression model with 

NAO and ENSO indices.