Palm oil NODA – EPA 

briefing

Dr. Chris Malins, Dr. Stephanie Searle

28 September 2012
Key points

 Spatial modeling/palm expansion

 Yields

 Peat emissions
Spatial modeling/palm expansion
The GEOMOD spatial analysis

 Assesses the static state of the palm oil 

industry in 2001/2003

 Uses this to construct a model for 

predicting the location of new palm 

expansion

 Compares the predictions of this model 

for 2009 to observation

 Decides a factor weighting and is 

applied to 2022
Key issues

 By definition, the GEOMOD system is 

only able to accurately model a 

situation in which current decision 

making is comparable to past decision 

making

 The accuracy of the input maps is 

questionable (according to EPA)

 Historically, farmers avoided peat soils 

systematically. This is no longer true.
Indonesia: backwards looking GEOSAT 

assessment misses recent trends

Soil type 

(ordered 

largest 

extent to 

least 

extent in 

2009)

Palm oil

Overall in 

Indonesia

Pre

v

ale

n

c

e in

2

0

01

2

0

01 ratio

of

p

alm:o

v

erall

2

0

01 ra

n

kin

g

Pre

v

ale

n

c

e in

2

0

0

9

2

0

0

9 ratio

of

p

alm:o

v

erall

2

0

0

9 ra

n

kin

g

%

of in

cre

a

s

e

2

0

01 to

2

0

0

9

R

atio

of

c

h

a

n

g

e:o

v

erall

R

a

n

kin

g in

c

h

a

n

g

e

Acrisols 49% 1.04 4 34% 0.72 6 -39% -0.83 9 47%

Gleysols Gleysols 17% 1.53 2 22% 1.93 1 44% 3.86 2 11%

Lithosols 12% 1.06 3 14% 1.22 5 22% 1.99 4 11%

Histosols 9% 0.87 5 13% 1.32 4 35% 3.48 3 10%

Fluvisols 7% 1.79 1 6% 1.74 3 6% 1.5 5 4%

Luvisols 2% 0.62 6 6% 1.83 2 26% 7.64 1 3%

Cambisols 3% 0.44 7 3% 0.42 8 2% 0.33 7 6%

Ferralsols 1% 0.34 8 2% 0.5 7 5% 1.26 6 4%

Nitosols 0% 0.1 9 0% 0.03 9 -1% -0.27 8 3%
In Malaysia GEOMOD factors such as 

railroads systematically disfavor Sarawak
Precipitation becomes a key predictor 

despite having poor statistics
Use of distance factors subject to change 

on a 10 year period

Settlements Roads

Plantations Railoads
Accuracy

 “The locations of oil palm plantations in 

the years 2003 and 2009 were supplied in 

shapefile format to EPA by the 

Government of Malaysia. The shapefiles

contained no metadata and the accuracy 

of the maps is unknown.” 

 A large area has fallen out of production 

according to the maps. Is this realistic?

 Accuracy concerns make us cautious of 

relying on differencing
Expansion of palm plantations on peat 

1990-2010
Expansion of palm plantations on peat 

1990-2010
Palm plantation on peat soils is 

accelerating
We expect a large % of expansion in 

Sarawak

 Sarawaki Government targets

 Government support in concession allocation

 Cheap Indonesian labor and weak regulatory 

enforcement

 Much more land available

 Documented recent trend

 According to MPOB, from 2000-09 Sarawaki 

expansion higher than either Peninsular or 

Sabah (40% vs. 7% in GEOMOD projection)

 Supported by mapping work
Consistent with other expert opinion

Forest Research Institute Malaysia
Other comments on GEOMOD

 This may be the one area with relative consensus between 

environmentalists and the palm industry!

 ABFA: “EPA based its land use change analysis on expansion in 

Sumatra, although it is well known that expansion is likely to 

occur in Kalimantan (Borneo).”

 Neste: “EPA utilized an area expansion model which is unable to 

quantify expansion into new areas”

 Neste: “ Neste: “Not including Not including ... economic ... economic factors is a major draw factors is a major drawback of 

the GEOMOD model as it is one of the major factors in the 

selection of land.”

 MPOB: “Another flaw in the assumption is the projection of 

locations for new plantations using GEOMOD. The GEOMOD 

land use change simulation model to project location of future oil 

palm expansion until 2022 in Peninsular Malaysia is unrealistic 

going by recent trends and this is a major limitation of using such 

a model. It has been proven that the GEOMOD method to predict 

LUC for the future is inaccurate and unreliable as was proven in 

previous cases by ground truthing of GEOMOD data.”
Yields
Yield trend in Indonesia

5.0

7.7

5

6

7

8

9

4.8

3.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

Indonesian palm yield

EPA estimate

10 year trend

20 year trend

ISPO suggestion
Recent Malaysian yield slippage ignored

“A return to historical trend yield growth is not 

expected soon, unless and until a major 

replanting campaign has been completed. The 

government reports that current annual replanting 

rates average 3-4 per cent of the total national 

area, and that it will take approximately 25 years 

to replant the entire national acreage.”4 
Peat emissions
Peat emissions factor

 Industry criticize choice of Page/Hooijer

 Argue for a value of 38 tCO2/ha/yr based 

on old research

 The Page review explains why we prefer 

the Hooijer results (which are confirmed 

by Jauhiainen) to weaker previous studies

 We stand by that recommendation and 

believe EPA has made a correct and 

defensible choice