Technical Potential of Solar Energy to Address

Energy Poverty and Avoid GHG Emissions in Africa

CONTACTS

Shannon Cowlin — shannon_cowlin@nrel.gov

Donna Heimiller — donna_heimiller@nrel.gov

Daniel Bilello — daniel_bilello@nrel.gov

Dave Renné — david_renne@nrel.gov

ENERGY GAP IN AFRICA

• Energy gap defi ned as diff erence 

between a country’s energy needs and 

current consumption.

• 1,500 W per person (13,140 kWh/capitayear) across all sectors was selected as 

an energy consumption baseline or 

target (average of values proposed by 

Goldemberg 1985 and Spreng 2005)

• 2005 total consumption data reported by 

the Energy Information Administration 

(EIA) were used in this analysis (2008). 

• Population and other data were 

obtained from the Human Development 

Report (UNDP 2007); for countries with data not reported in the Human 

Development Report, data from the World Factbook were used (CIA 2008). 

• Only nationally aggregated numbers were used, so no information on 

energy equity within countries can be derived here.

Only three African countries did not show an energy gap: Equatorial 

Guinea, Libya, and South Africa averaged 30,276, 37,028, and 30,818 kWh/

capita-year, respectively. Of the remaining countries, the energy gap 

ranged from 437 kWh/capita-year in Algeria to 13,053 kWh/capita-year in 

Chad. Twenty-one of the 48 countries included in this analysis average less 

than 1,140 kWh/ capita-year, or less than 9% of the benchmark value of 

13,140 kWh/capita-year (see Figure 1). 

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Offi ce of Energy Effi ciency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. International Congress on Renewable Energy (ICORE) • October 16–17, 2008 • NREL/PO-6A2-44259

PVGENERATION POTENTIAL

The technical PV electricity-generation potential in Africa was estimated using the 40-km 

resolution latitude tilt resource data developed at NREL. This dataset describes the solar 

energy that reaches a fi xed axis, north/south-facing fl at plate collector, tilted toward the 

sun at an angle equal to that location’s latitude in kWh/m2-day. These data (TILT) were 

used to estimate the electricity-generating potential using the following equation.

(PV energy)A = (Productive Land Area)A * (TILT)A * η * 365 days

This analysis estimated the productive land in each country as 1.5% of the total land area 

(5% of land available for PV installation, of which 30% would be covered with panels) and 

a conversion effi ciency (η) of 10%.

The country-level generation potential ranged from 33 TWh/year in the Gambia to 

8,700 TWh/year in Sudan. Figures 2 and 3 show the total PV electricity-generation 

potential and the ratio of 

this potential to the total 

energy gap by country. In 

Rwanda and Burundi, the 

theoretical PV-generation 

potential was less than 

the energy gap, with 

potential equal to 57% 

and 75% of those energy 

gaps, respectively.

ESTIMATING 

CONCENTRATING SOLAR 

POWERGENERATION 

POTENTIAL

To determine the CSP electricity-generation 

potential in countries across Africa, this 

analysis used the 40-km resolution direct 

normal irradiance (DNI) data developed by 

NREL. This dataset describes the amount 

of direct solar radiation reaching a device 

that tracks the sun’s movement over the 

course of the day, which is the radiation 

component relevant to CSP applications.

Analysis constraints applied:

• Annual average DNI resource of 6.75 kWh/m2-day or greater

• Terrain slope less than or equal to 1%

• Excluded all urban areas, water bodies, and protected areas 

• Remaining land assumed an installed capacity of 50 MW/km2 operating at 

a 30% capacity factor 

• Yields theoretical maximum potential of CSP generation in terawatt hour 

(TWh) under these parameters

Only 17 countries demonstrated CSP electricity-generation potential based 

on the fi ltering criteria applied in this analysis. The annual generation 

potential ranged from 7 TWh/year in Eritrea to 40,500 TWh/year in Libya. 

Figure 4 shows the land areas in Africa that meet all of the potential 

development criteria. CSP potential is not as widespread as PV potential 

across Africa; but where CSP potential does exist, the generation potential is 

substantial because of the nature of the technology. The land area identifi ed 

in the fi gure represents an electricity-generating potential of almost 

215,000 TWh/year.

Figure 1. Energy Gap in Africa

Figure 2. Total PV Electricity-Generation Potential 

in Africa

Figure 3. Ratio of PV Electricity-Generation 

Potential to Total Energy Gap

Figure 4. Land Areas in Africa that Meet CSP Potential 

Development Criteria

INTRODUCTION

Approximately 1.6 billion people worldwide do not have access to electricity, 

and roughly 2.4 billion people rely on traditional biomass fuels to meet their 

heating and cooking needs (IEA 2002). Lack of access to and use of energy— 

or energy poverty—has been recognized as a barrier to reaching the Millennium 

Development Goals (MDGs) and other targeted eff orts to improve health 

and quality of life (IEA 2002). Reducing reliance on traditional biomass can 

substantially reduce indoor air pollution-related morbidity and mortality; 

increasing access to lighting and refrigeration can improve educational and 

economic opportunities. Though targeted electrifi cation eff orts have had success 

within Latin America and East Asia (reaching electrifi cation rates above 85%), 

sub-Saharan Africa has maintained electrifi cation rates below 25% (IEA 2004).

This analysis explores the technical potential of photovoltaics (PV) or concentrating 

solar power (CSP) to address energy poverty in Africa through a geographic information 

system (GIS) screening of solar resource data developed by the U.S. Department of 

Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This analysis does not aim to 

address the economic and social factors that will infl uence realization of PV and CSP 

development. Furthermore, electrical energy generated with solar technologies cannot 

currently be applied to all sectors with energy gaps; in the near term, household heating 

and cooking as well as transportation energy needs may be best met with more effi cient 

combustion devices using cleaner fossil or bio-derived fuels. This analysis attempts only 

to estimate the scale of the energy defi cits across Africa and the availability of one of the 

many energy resources available to address these defi cits.

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

1617 Cole Boulevard

Golden, Colorado 80401

303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Offi ce of Energy 

Effi ciency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC

REFERENCES

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). (2008). “The World Factbook.” https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html. Accessed August 

2008.

Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2008) International World Energy Data and Analysis, Current and Historical Data Maps, Oil Production 

Consumption and Reserves, World Regions and Country-Level Information. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm. Accessed August 2008.

Goldemberg, J., Johansson, T.B., Reddy, A.K.N., and R.H. Williams. (1985). “Basic needs and much more with one kilowatt per capita.” Ambio 14 (4-5), 190-200.

International Energy Agency (IEA). (2002). “World Energy Outlook 2002.” International Energy Agency, Paris.

IEA. (2004). “World Energy Outlook 2004.” International Energy Agency, Paris.

Spreng, D. (2005). “Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target.” Energy Policy 33, 1905-1911. 

United Nations Development Program (UNDP). (2007). “Human Development Report 2007/2008.” Palgrave Macmillan, New York.

POTENTIAL AVOIDED GHG EMISSIONS

Avoided GHG emissions by meeting each country’s energy gap with renewable energy 

technologies (RETs), such as solar technologies, were estimated using each country’s 

current CO2 emissions profi le. 

• 2005 CO2 emissions were obtained from EIA for all African countries

• 2005 GHG emission factors were estimated by dividing total emissions by total 

consumption 

• The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assumed that energy gaps would be met using 

technologies with similar emission factors to those calculated for 2005

• These additional emissions would be avoided if RETs were used in place of the 

historical energy technologies to meet the energy gap

Meeting the energy gap under the BAU scenario would increase annual emissions by 

1,909 MMT-CO2, nearly tripling the 2005 emissions of these 45 countries (1,035 MMT CO2, 

EIA). Deployment of RETs to meet energy demands across Africa could avoid GHG emissions and reduce climate vulnerability in regions heavily reliant on hydropower. While 

nontechnical barriers to deployment of PV and CSP technologies signifi cantly impact 

energy choices, it is still very likely that solar-based renewable energy technologies can 

and will play a signifi cant role in closing the energy gap.