Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Great Lakes Region

March 2018

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - March 2018 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

Extreme swings in weather conditions 

highlighted the winter of 2017-2018. Many 

locations experienced near-to-record-breaking 

low temperatures in late December and early 

January. For the southern and eastern basin, the 

unusually cold conditions were accompanied by 

above-normal snow accumulation. For southern 

Ontario, snowfall was mixed with some areas 

having below-normal accumulation while others 

were 2-3 times the normal amount. By midto-late February, conditions for most of the 

basin had reversed. Snow accumulation was far 

below-normal for nearly the entire basin. Daily 

temperatures were above-normal by as much 

as 22°C (40°F) for some locations in the eastern 

basin. Syracuse and Watertown, NY had their 

warmest February day on record.

The end of February was also notable due to 

the excessive amounts of precipitation that impacted the majority of the area. Many sites reported more than five times the normal amount 

of accumulated precipitation for late February. This inundation led to widespread flooding. Several communities declared a state of emergency 

while others were forced to evacuate. Both the St. Joseph and Kalamazoo rivers reached record levels as a result of the prolific rainfall.

 Great Lakes Significant Events - for December 2017 - February 2018

Precipitation & Snowfall

Regional Climate Overview - for December 2017 - February 2018

December average temperatures ranged from near normal to 5°C 

(9°F) below normal. Late December cold conditions persisted into early 

January where temperatures fluctuated from below to above normal for 

most of the basin. In February, Superior and western Michigan basins 

were colder than normal while eastern Michigan and Ontario basins 

were warmer than normal.

Water level statistics based on 1918-2017.

Temperature In December, all lake basins except 

Superior received at least 75% 

below normal precipitation. January 

precipitation was below normal for 

all basins. In February precipitation 

ranged from near normal to well 

above normal.

Winter snowfall ranged from 50% to 

175% of normal. December snowfall 

ranged from less than 25% to 175% 

of normal. January snowfall ranged 

from less than 50% to 150%, though 

a majority of the region saw snowfall 

deficits. February snowfall ranged from 50% to 175% of normal.

Precipitation normals based on 1981-2010.

Feb 2018 Precipitation: 

Percent of Normal (%)

Great Lakes Water Levels

Air temperature normals based on 1981-2010.

Lake

End of Feb. 2018 

Compared to:

Change since 

December 1st

Average Last Year 2017/18 Average

Superior +34 cm 

(+13.4 in)

+16 cm 

(+6.3 in)

-14 cm 

(-5.5 in)

-20 cm 

(-7.9 in)

MichiganHuron+51 cm 

(+20.1 in)

+26 cm 

(+10.2 in)

-4 cm 

(-1.6 in)

-8 cm 

(-3.1 in)

Erie +56 cm 

(+22.0 in)

+15 cm 

(+5.9 in)

+11 cm 

(+4.3 in)

+2 cm 

(+1.2 in)

Ontario +34 cm 

(+13.4 in)

+4 cm 

(+1.6 in)

+12 cm 

(+4.7 in)

+10 cm 

(+3.5 in)

Ice Cover

The Great Lakes were, on 

average, above their long-term 

average ice cover for the period. 

Somewhat unique, the Great 

Lakes had two peaks of maximum 

ice coverage during this winter. 

The first maximum of 35.5% 

was reached on January 16 after 

which ice cover declined to about 

15.1%, and then increased again 

to reach 69.0% on February 11.

Dec 2017-Feb 2018: Diff. from Avg (%)

Dec 2017: 

Dep. from Normal

Feb 2018: 

Dep. from Normal
Regional Impacts - for December 2017 - February 2018

Regional Outlook - for April - June 2018 Great Lakes Region Partners

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)

www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change.html

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

www.agr.gc.ca 

Midwestern Regional Climate Center

mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Great Lakes Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

www.glerl.noaa.gov

NOAA Great Lakes Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

North Central River Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc

Ohio River Forecast Center

www.weather.gov/ohrfc 

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Office for Coastal Management

http://coast.noaa.gov/

Great Lakes Integrated Sciences & Assessments

www.glisa.umich.edu

US Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District

www.lre.usace.army.mil

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

USDA Midwest Climate Hub

https://www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/midwest

Contact for NOAA: 

Jonathan Weaver: jw1067@illinois.edu

Samantha Borisoff: samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu

Contact for ECCC: 

ec.enviroinfo.ec@canada.ca

Contact Information

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - March 2018 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

The CPC and ECCC predict that the Great Lakes basin has a greater chance for above-normal 

temperatures for central and eastern portions of the basin for the April through June period. 

The entire basin is also forecasted to have a greater chance of above-normal precipitation for 

the same period. While La Niña conditions have been present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean 

for several months, the CPC and ECCC now predict that La Niña will transition into a more 

neutral phase by the end of the spring. The current monthly and seasonal outlooks can be 

found through CPC and ECCC.

Flooding

Large parts of the southern and central 

basin experiencing flooding in late 

February due to excessive precipitation. 

As many as 22 counties in Indiana 

declared a state of emergency. Some 

communities in Indiana, Michigan, and 

Ontario were forced to evacuate. In 

South Bend, IN, the St. Joseph River 

reached 500-year flood levels and crested 

at 3.9 m (12.7 ft). The Kalamazoo river 

also broke a 72-year record. Events such as these were widespread in late 

February and contributed to several deaths across the basin.

Transportation & Shipping

The cold conditions in late December 

and early January had widespread 

implications across the Great Lakes 

basin. Rapid ice formation on the lakes 

led to a sudden slow-down in shipping 

capabilities throughout the basin. 

While icebreakers were utilized to help 

in opening up shipping lanes, the extent 

of the ice this year made it difficult to 

mitigate the impacts on the region's 

economy. For the holiday season, the 

extent of snow and ice made travel difficult. For many locations, the 

accompanying snow and ice caused flight delays and dangerous driving 

conditions. Later, the drastic change to above-normal temperatures and 

precipitation damaged roadways across the basin.

Coastal Impacts 

Rapid ice formation in late December 

due to below-normal temperatures 

impacted the coastline of both rivers 

and lakes across the Great Lakes basin. 

The extensive ice coverage created an 

ice jam on the St. Clair River. On the 

coast of Lake Erie, massive ice shoves 

were reported to have formed due to 

the ice coverage and high winds forcing 

it onshore. High water levels are also 

playing a role in coastal damage. Lake 

Ontario's high water levels have delayed 

the renovations to Kingston, Ontario's Breakwater Park. With Great Lakes 

water levels remaining well above average, and with a good chance of 

high levels persisting well into the summer months, the risk of shoreline 

erosion will likely continue.

Recreation & Tourism

The increase in ice cover this winter has 

affected recreational activities across 

the Great Lakes. In past years, ice fishing 

has been hindered by below-normal 

ice coverage. However, the early and 

increased ice coverage of this winter has 

allowed the ice fishing market to return 

in full force. The Michigan Pond Hockey 

Classic in Whitmore Lake, MI was also able 

to be held after having been canceled the 

last two years due to poor ice coverage.

Water Levels

Water levels of all the lakes are expected to see 

typical seasonal rises over the spring quarter when 

increased precipitation and snowmelt, and decreased 

lake evaporation are common. With wet conditions 

forecasted to continue into spring and all of the Great 

Lakes well above average at the start of March, all 

should be prepared for continued higher than normal 

water levels into the spring and summer.

Temperature & Precipitation

Graphic (above): Potential range for water levels for Apr-June 2018 

compared to the long-term average (1918-2017). 

Children playing ice hockey

(Photo: Michigan Sea Grant)

St. Clair River Ice Jam near Algonac, MI

on January 4

(Photo: US Army Corps of Engineers)

Ice Breaker

(Photo: GLERL)

Ongoing Flooding Risk

The excessive rainfall that most of 

the basin received in late February in 

conjunction with other conditions such 

as frozen soil and snow/ice cover in the 

northern basin could increase the risk 

of flooding in the spring. Additionally, 

above-normal lake levels put coastal 

communities at risk for coastal flooding 

and erosion. Any heavy precipitation 

events in the spring will likely only make 

conditions worse.

Flooded Street in Late February

Goshen, Indiana

(Photo: Sam Lashley)

Flooding in Goshen, Indiana

in Late February

(Photo: Sam Lashley)