Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| March 2014 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Missouri River Basin 

March 2014 

National - Significant Events for December 2013 - February 2014

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Mountain Snowpack

Regional - Climate Overview for December 2013 - February 2014

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

December 1 - February 28, 2014

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

December 1 - February 28, 2014

Missouri Basin Mountain Snowpack

03/01/2014

Highlights for the Basin

Although one of the coldest winters in recent 

memory, only a few states broke into the top 10 

rankings. North Dakota had its 8th wettest and 

9th coldest December on record. Meanwhile, 

Montana and Wyoming had their 7th and 9th 

wettest February on record, respectively.

The largest temperature departures in the region 

were confined to eastern North Dakota and 

northeastern South Dakota where temperatures 

were up to 10°F below normal. Grand Forks, 

ND had its 3rd coldest winter on record with 

an average temperature of 0.4°F. Aberdeen, 

SD had its 5th coldest winter with an average 

temperature of 7.3°F. 

This winter was particularly windy across the 

region. In January, Rapid City, SD had an average 

wind speed of 13.6 mph which was the windiest 

January since records began in 1970.

Although the mountain snow season extends well 

beyond the winter months, many locations fared 

well over the winter. One example is from the 

popular ski destination of Breckenridge, CO which 

had its 3rd snowiest winter on record with 131.6 

inches. 

Although there is limited snowpack across 

the plains portion of the Missouri Basin states, 

above average mountain snowpack is present 

in the headwaters. This is in stark contrast to 

the past two years when the snowpack was 

well below normal. This snowpack may draw 

concern of a repeat of the 2011 flooding, 

however that is rather unlikely at this time. 

Keep in mind that record May precipitation in 

Montana greatly contributed to the flooding in 

2011. Also, there is additional flood storage as 

a result of the 2012 drought. 

Precipitation varied across the region this 

winter. Generally, the eastern half of the 

region had below normal precipitation and the 

western half had above normal precipitation. 

Montana had the highest departures in the 

region with much of the state receiving at 

least 200 percent of normal precipitation. 

However, lower portions of the basin, 

including Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri 

were well below normal. Significant portions 

of these states received 50 percent of normal 

precipitation at best. 

A strong ridge/trough pattern was present 

over the United States this winter, which 

resulted in cold, stormy weather in the east 

and dry, warm conditions in the west. Situated 

in the middle, the Missouri Basin states had 

both above and below normal temperatures. 

The northern and eastern sides averaged 

4.0°F-10.0°F below normal while portions of 

Wyoming and Colorado were near normal and 

up to 6.0°F above normal. For some parts of 

the region, this was the coldest winter in 25-30 

years. 

The average U.S. temperature during February was 32.2°F, 1.6°F below average. The winter U.S. 

temperature was 31.3°F, 1.0°F below average. February U.S. precipitation was 2.12 inches, 0.01 inch 

below average. The winter precipitation total was 5.69 inches, 1.10 inches below average, and the 

ninth driest winter on record. 
Regional - Impacts for December 2013 - February 2014

Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| March 2014 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Spring 2014 MO River Basin Partners

High Plains Regional Climate Center

www.hprcc.unl.edu

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Weather Service - Central Region

www.crh.noaa.gov/crh

National Climatic Data Center

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Missouri River Basin Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing 

Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

National Drought Mitigation Center

www.drought.unl.edu

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

South Dakota State University Extension

http://igrow.org

National Integrated Drought Information

System (NIDIS)

www.drought.gov

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - Missouri River Basin 

Water Management Division

www.usace.army.mil

USDA NRCS National Water & Climate Center

www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area

www.usgs.gov/water

Western Governors’ Association

www.westgov.org

:#regionalclimateoutlooks

Missouri Basin Flood 

Outlook 

U.S. Seasonal Drought 

Outlook 

ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) neutral 

conditions were still present and are forecast 

to continue through spring, with a 50% chance 

of El Niño developing this summer or fall. 

There are no indications of either a wetter or 

drier than normal spring at this time, however 

northern areas of the basin should expect 

below normal temperatures. 

Ice jam flooding has occurred on many rivers 

and is expected to continue into the spring. 

Minor to moderate flooding is projected for 

the northern plains based on the potential for 

snowmelt and rain-on-snow events. Minor to 

moderate flooding is also expected in Kansas 

and Missouri due to convective rainfall. This 

projected flooding is not atypical.

Drought conditions have only changed slightly 

over the winter months. For the areas in this 

region dealing with drought, the winter is 

typically the driest part of the year. This means 

that significant changes in drought conditions 

(either improvements or degradations) 

would not be expected. The seasonal outlook 

indicates that much of the drought conditions 

in the region will either be erased or be 

improved. The area of drought encompassing 

the southeast corner of Colorado and the 

southwest corner of Kansas is expected to 

persist through June. 

Agriculture

Extended cold this winter had impacts on many aspects of agriculture. 

Propane shortages were a challenge for corn producers who still had 

corn in their fields waiting to be dried. Some livestock stress due to 

the cold was reported. Additionally, there are concerns over the winter 

wheat crop. After a cold and windy winter, producers will have to wait 

until the crop breaks dormancy to find out the extent of the damage.

Valid for Spring 2014 Valid for 03/20/2014 - 06/30/2014

Transportation

Transportation was impacted this winter as well. Frequent ground 

blizzards across the Dakotas caused hazardous travel and closed roads. 

Dust storms in Colorado and Kansas also closed roads and slowed travel. 

Rail traffic, including passenger trains, slowed throughout the region as 

cold weather increases the potential for cracked rails. The extended cold 

was particularly hard on North Dakota where rail traffic has increased 

due to oil extraction.

Above: (Left) Winter wheat field in February in Ward County, North Dakota, courtesy AgWeb, (Center) Skiers in Breckenridge, Colorado in January, courtesy The 

Denver Post, (Right) January dust storm near La Junta, Colorado, courtesy Cimarron County NRCS.

Tourism and Recreation

Not all the impacts due to the cold winter were negative. Outdoor 

recreation has increased this winter as many have been able to get out 

and enjoy ice fishing, snowmobiling, and skiing. Some ice fishing villages 

that have popped up in North Dakota are actually larger in population 

than the population of surrounding communities. Meanwhile, visitation 

to Colorado ski resorts has increased 22 percent over last season.

Utilities

Utilities have been impacted by the bitter cold weather as well. 

Propane shortages and the resulting increase in prices was an issue, 

especially for those who rely on the fuel for warmth. At least one death 

in North Dakota was attributed to the shortage. The combination of a 

low snowpack early in the season and extended periods of cold weather 

has created a deep frost line. As a result, broken water mains and pipes 

have been reported.