ii **CONTENTS** Section Page Executive Summary ................................ .............................. ES- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 ES.1 Key Findings ................................ ...................... ES- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 ES.1.1 Health Co - Benefits ................................ . ES- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 4 ES.1.2 Welfare Co - Benefits ............................... ES- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 ES.2 Not All Benefits Quantified ............................. ES- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 10 ES.3 Costs and Employment Impacts ..................... ES- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 15 ES.4 Small Entity and Unfunded Mandates Impacts ES- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 16 ES.5 Limitations and Uncertainties ........................ ES- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 17 ES.6 References ................................ ...................... ES- **Error! Bookmark not defined.**  21 1 Introduction and Background ................................ ...... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 - 1 1.1 Introduction ................................ ........................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 - 1 1.2 Background for Final Mercury and Air Toxics Standards **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 - 2 1.2.1 NESHAP ................................ ................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 - 2 1.2.2 NSPS ................................ ........................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 -4 1.3 Appropriate & Necessary A nalyses ..................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 -4 1.4 Provisions of the Final Mercury and Air Toxics Standards **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 - 5 1.4.1 What Is the Source Category Regulated by the Final Rule? **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 1.4.2 What Are the Pol lutants Regulated by the Rule? **Error! Book mark not defined.**  1 - 6 1.4.3 What Are the Emissions Limits? ............. **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 - 6 1.4.4 What are the Startup, Shutdown, and Malfunction Requirements? **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1.5 Baseline and Years of Analysis .......................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 - 12 1.6 Benefits of Emission Controls ........................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 - 13iii

1.7 Cost of Emission Controls ................................ . **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 - 14 1.8 Organization of the Regulatory Impact Analysis **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 - 14 1.9 References ................................ ......................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 - 15 2 Electric Power Sector Profile ................................ ........ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 1 2.1 Introduction ................................ ........................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.**  2 - 1 2.2 Power Sector Overview ................................ ....... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 1 2.2.1 Generation ................................ .............. **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 2 2.2.2 Transmission ................................ ........... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 5 2.2.3 Distribution ................................ ............. **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 6 2.3 Deregulation and Restructuring ......................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 6 2.4 Emissions of Mercury and Other H azardous Air Pollutants from Electric Utilities ................................ ............................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 7 2.5 Pollution Control Technologies ........................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 9 2.6 HAP Regulation in the Power Sector ................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 11 2.6.1 Programs Targeting HAP .......................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.**  2 - 11 2.6.2 Programs Targeting SO 2 and NOx ............ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 12 2.7 Revenues, Expenses, and Prices ....................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 14 2.7.1 Natural Gas Market ............................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 18 2.8 Electricity Deman d and Demand Response ...... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 19 2.9 References ................................ ........................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 - 20 3 Cost, Economic, and Energy Impacts ........................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 1 3.1 Background ................................ ......................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 2 3.2 Projected Emissions ................................ .......... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 10 3.3 Projected Compliance Costs ............................. **Error! Bookmark not def ined.**  3 - 14 3.4 Projected Compliance Actions for Emissions Reductions **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 15 3.5 Projected Generation Mix ................................ . **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 17iv

3. 6 Projected Withdrawals from Service ................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 18 3.7 Projected Capacity Additions ............................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 20 3.8 Projected Coal Production for the Electric Power Sector **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 21 3.9 Projected Retail Electricity Prices ..................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 23 3.10 Projected Fuel Price Impacts ........................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 25 3.11 Key Differences in EPA Model Runs for MATS Modeling **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 27 3.12 Projected Primary PM Emissions from Power Plants **Error! Bookmark not defined .**  3 - 28 3.13 Illustrative Dry Sorbent Injection Sensitivity ... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 28 3.14 Additional Compliance Costs Analyzed for Covered Units **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 29 3.14.1 Compliance Cost for Oil - Fired Units. ..... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 29 3.14.2 Monitoring, Reporting and Record - keeping Costs **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 30 3.14.3 Total Costs Projected for Covered Units under MATS **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 30 3.15 Limitations of A nalysis ................................ ..... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 31 3.16 Significant Energy Impact ................................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 35 3.17 References ................................ ....................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 - 35 Appendix 3A Compliance costs for oil -fired electric generating units **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3A- 1 3A.1 Methodology and Assumptions ...................... **Err or! Bookmark not defined.**  3A- 1 3A.1.1 Base Case ................................ ............... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3A- 1 3A.1.2 Policy Case ................................ ............ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3A- 3 3A.1.3 Cost Sensitivities Related to Mandatory Natural Gas Curtailment **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3A.2 Results ................................ ................................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3A- 5 3A.3 References ................................ ....................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3A- 7 4 Mercury and other HAP Benefits Analysis ................... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 4.1 Introduction ................................ ........................ 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 4.2 Impact of Mercury on Human Health ................. 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5v 4.2.1 Introduction ................................ ............ 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.**  5 4.2.2 Neurologic Effects ................................ ... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 6 4.2.3 Cardiovascular Impacts ........................... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 6 4.2.4 Genotoxic Effects ................................ .... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 6 4.2.5 Immunotoxic Effects ............................... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 7 4.2.6 Other Human Toxicity Data .................... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 7 4.3 Impact of Mercury on Ecosystems and Wildlife . 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 7 4.3.1 Introduction ................................ ............ 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 7 4.3.2 Effects on Fish ................................ ......... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 8 4.3.3 Effects on Birds ................................ ....... 4- **Error! Book mark not defined.**  9 4.3.4 Effects on Mammals ............................. 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 10 4.4 M ercury Risk and Exposure Analyses — Data Inputs and Assumptions4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 4.4.1 Introduction ................................ .......... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 11 4.4.2 Data Inputs ................................ ............ 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 11 4.4.3 Mercury Concentrations in Freshwater Fish 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 15 4.5 Linking Changes in Modeled Mercury Deposition to Changes in Fish Tissue Concentrations ................................ ................ 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 18 4.5.1 Introduction ................................ .......... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 18 4.5.2 Use of Mercury Maps to Project Changes in Fish Tissue Concentrations ................................ ...... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 18 4.5.3 The Science of Mercury Processes and Variability in Aquatic Ecosystems ................................ ............ 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.**  23 4.5.4 Summary ................................ ............... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 31 4.6 Analysis of the Dose - Respo nse Relationship Between Maternal Mercury Body Burden and Childhood IQ ....................... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 32 4.6.1 Introduction ................................ .......... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 32 4.6.2 Epidemiological Studies of Mercury and Neurodevelopmental Effects ................................ .................... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 34 4.6.3 Statistical Analysis ................................ . 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 35 4.6.4 Strengths and Limitations of the IQ Dose - Response Analysis4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 4.6.5 Possible Confounding from Long- Chained Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids ................................ ...................... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 39 4.7 Mercury Benefits Analysis Modeling Methodology4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 40 4.7.1 Introduction ................................ .......... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.**  40vi 4.7.2 Estimation of Exposed Populations and Fishing Behaviors4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 4.7.3 Estimation of Lost Future Earnings ....... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 47 4.8 Mercury Benefits and Risk Analysis Results ...... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 50 4.8.1 Baseline Incidence ................................ 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 50 4.8.2 IQ Loss and Economic Valua tion Estimates4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 56 4.8.3 Primary Results for National Analysis of Exposures from Recreational Freshwater Fish Consumption 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 57 4.8.5 Discussion of Assumptions, Limitations, and Uncertainties4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 4.8.6 Overall Conclusions ............................... 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 68 4.9 Benefits Associated with Reductions in Other HAP than Mercury4- **Error! Bookmark not def ined.**  4.9.1 Hazards ................................ .................. 4- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 75 4.10 Reference s ................................ ........................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 81 4A Analysis of Trip Travel Distance for Recreational Freshwater Anglers4A- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 4A.1 Data ................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 4A- 1 4A.2 Analysis of Travel Distance Data ..................... 4A- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 4A.3 Summary Results Appl ied in the Population Centroid Approach 4A- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 Health and Welfare Co- Benefits ................................ .. **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 1 Synopsis ................................ ................................ ........ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 1 5.1 Overview ................................ ............................. **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 3 5.2 Benefits Analysis Methods ................................ **Error! Bookmark not defined .**  5 - 11 5.2.1 Health Impact Assessment .................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 12 5.2.2 Economic Valuation of Health Impacts . **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 13 5.2.3 Adjusting the Results of the PM 2.5 co - benefits Analysis to Acco unt for the Emission Reductions in the Final Mercury and Air Toxics Standards ................................ .............. **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 15 5.3 Uncertainty Characterization ............................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 18 5.4 Benefits Analysis Data Inputs ............................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 22 5.4.1 Demographic D ata ................................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 22vii 5.4.2 Effect Coefficients ................................ . **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 23 5.4.3 Baseline Incidence Estimates ................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 38 5.4.4 Economic Valuation Estimates .............. **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 -41 5.4 .5 Hospital Admissions Valuation ............. **Err or! Bookmark not defined.**  5 - 51 5.5 Unquantified Health and Welfare Benefits ...... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 61 5.5.1 Visibility Valuation ................................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 61 5.5.2 Ecosystem Services ............................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 68 5.5.3 Ecosystem Benefits of Reduced Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5.5.4 Ecological Effects Associated with Gaseous Sulfur Dioxide **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 5.5.5 Nitrogen Enrichment ............................. **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 80 5.5.6 Benefits of Reducing Ozone Effects on Vegetation and Ecosystems **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5.5.7 Unquantified SO 2 and NO 2- Related Human Health Benefits **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 5.6 Social Cost of Carbon and Green house Gas Co - Benefits **Error! Bookmark not defined.**  5 - 90 5.7 Co - Benefits Results ................................ ........... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 94 5.8 Discussion ................................ ........................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 105 5.9 References ................................ ...................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 - 106 5 A Impact of the Interim Policy Scenar io on Emissions .. 5A- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 5A.1 Introduction ................................ ..................... 5A- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 5A.2 Overview of Modeling Platform and Emissions Processing Performed 5A- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5A.3 Development of 2005 Base Year Emissions .... 5A- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 5A.4 Development of Future year baseline Emissions 5A- **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 9 5A.5 Development of Future Year Control Case Emissions for Air Quality Modeling ................................ ........................ 5A- **Error! Book mark not defined.**  21 5B Impact of the Inte rim Policy Scenario on Air Quality 5B - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 5C Health and Welfare Co- Benefits of the Modeled Interim Policy Scenario ................. 5C- 1 5 D PM 2.5 Co- Benefits of the Final Rule by State .............. 5D - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1viii

5D.1 Introduction ................................ ........................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 5D.2 Methods ................................ ................................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 5D.3 Limitations and uncertainties ................................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 5D.4 Results ................................ ................................ ... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 5E Summary of Expert Opinions on the Existence of a Threshold in the Con centration - Response Function for PM 2.5- related Mortality5E - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 6 E mployment and Economic Impact Analysis ................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 6.1 Employment Impacts for the MATS ........................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.**  2 6.2 Employment Impacts Primarily on the Regulated Industry: Morgenstern, Pizer, and Shih (2002) ................................ ............ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 3 6.3 Employment Impacts of the MATS - Pollution Control Sector Approach by 2015 ................................ ................................ ....... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 8 6.3.1 Overall Approach and Methodology for Pollution Control Sector Approach ................................ ................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 10 6.3.2 Summary of Employment Estimates from Pollution Control Sector Approach ................................ ................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 11 6.3.3 Other Employment Impacts of MATS ....... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 11 Note: See Appendix 6A for more detail. ........................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 12 6.4 Summary of Employment Impacts ....................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 12 6.5 Potentia l Effect of Electricity Price Increase on Economy-Wide Production Costs ................................ ................. **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 13 6.6 Estimating Social Cost and Economic Impacts .... **Error! Bookmark not defined.**  16 6 .7 References ................................ ............................ **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 17 6A.1 Overall Approach ................................ ..................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 6A.1.2 Employment Changes due to New Pollution Control Equipment **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 6A.1.3 Results **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 6 6A.2 Results Summary ................................ ................. **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 11 6A.3 Detailed Methodology ................................ ......... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 11ix 6A.3.1 Pollution Control Equipment Labor .......... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 11 6A.3.2 Retirement Labor ................................ ..... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 13 6A.3. 3 Fuel Use Labor ................................ ........... **Error! Bookmark not def ined.**  14 6A.4 References ................................ ........................... **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 16 7 Statutory and Executive Order Analyses ..................... 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 1 7.1 Introduction ................................ ........................ 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 7.2 Executive Order 12866: Regulatory Planning and Review and Executive Order 13563, Improving Regulation and Regulatory Review7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 2 7.3 Paperwork Reduction Act ................................ ... 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 4 7.4 Final Regulatory Flexib ility Analysis .................... 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 7.4.1 Reasons Why Action Is Being Taken .......... 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 5 7.4.2 Statement of Objectives and Legal Basis for Final Rules 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 6 7.4.3 Summary of Issues Raised during the Public Comment Process on the IRFA ................................ ................... 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined .**  6 7.4.4 Description and Estimate of the Affected Small Entities 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 13 7.4.5 Compliance Cost Impacts ......................... 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 14 7.4.6 Descr iption of Steps to Minimize Impacts on Small Entities 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 18 7.5 Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA) Analysis 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 21 7.5.1 Identification of Affected Government Entities 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 22 7.5.2 Compliance Cost Impacts ......................... 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 22 7.6 Executive Order 13132, Federalism .................. 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 26 7.7 Executive Order 13175, Consultation and Coordination with Indian Tribal Governments ................................ ................... 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 27 7.8 Protection of Children from Environmental Health and Safety Risks 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 7.9 Statement of Energy Effects ............................. 7 - **Err or! Bookmark not defined.**  28 7.10 National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 29 7.11 Environmental Justice ................................ ..... 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 35 7.11.1 Environmental Justice Impacts ............. 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 35x 7.11.2 Analysis of High Risk Sub - Populations .. 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 42 7.11.3 Characterizing th e Distribution of Health Impacts across Populations ................................ ........... 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 51 7.12 Congressional Review Act ............................... 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 56 7.13 References ................................ ....................... 7 - **Error! Bookmark not defined.** 57 8 Comparison of Benefits and Costs ................................ ................................ ................ 8 - 1 8.1 Compariso n of Benefits and Costs ................................ ................................ ..... 8 - 1 8.2 References ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 8 - 3xi **LIST OF FIGURES** Number Page ES- 1. Economic Value of Estimated PM 2.5 - Related Health Co - Benefits According to Epidemiology or Expert- Derived PM Mortality Risk Estimate ................................ ....... ES- 8 E S- 2. Net Benefits of the MATS Rule According to PM 2.5 Epidemiology or ExpertDerived Mortality Risk Estimate ................................ ................................ .................... ES- 9 2 - 1. Fossil Fuel - Fired Electricity Generating Facilities, by Size ................................ ............... 2 -4 2 - 2. Status of State Electricity Industry Restructuring Activities ................................ ............ 2 - 6 2 - 3. National Average Retail Electricity Price (1960–2009) ................................ .................. 2 - 16 2 -4. Average Retail Electricity Price by State (cents/kWh), 2009 ................................ ......... 2 - 16 2 - 5. Natural Gas Spot Price, Annual Average (Henry Hub) ................................ ................... 2 - 17 2 - 6. Electricity Growth Rate (3 Year Rolling Average) and Projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 2 - 18 3 - 1. Geographic Distribution of Affected Units, by Facility, Size and Fuel Source in 2012 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ . 3 - 8 3 - 2. SO 2 Emissions from the Power Sector in 2015 with and without MATS ....................... 3 - 11 3 - 3. NO X Emissions from the Power Sector in 2015 with and without MATS ...................... 3 - 11 3 -4. Mercury Emissions from the Power Sector in 2015 with and without MATS ............... 3 - 1 2 3 - 5. Hydrogen Chloride Emissions from the Power Sector in 2015 with and without MATS ................................ ................................ ................................ .............................. 3 - 1 3 3 - 6. Operating Pollution Control Capacity o n Coal -fired Capacity (by Technology) with the Base Case and with MATS, 2015 (GW) ................................ ................................ .... 3 - 1 5 3 - 7. Generation Mix with the Base Case and with MATS, 2015 - 2030 ................................ .. 3 - 1 7 3 - 8. Total Coal Production by Coal - Producing Region, 2007 (Million Short Tons) ............... 3 - 22 3 - 9. Retail Pric e Model Regions ................................ ................................ ............................ 3 - 2 5 3A- 1. 2006- 2010 Heat Input Apportioned by Fuel for Oil - Fired Units Subject to Mandatory Natural Gas Curtailment ................................ ................................ ............. 3 A- 2 4- 1. Spatial and Biogeochemical Factors Influencing MeHg Production .............................. 4- 26 4- 2. Preliminary USGS Map of Mercury Methyl ation –Sensitive Watersheds Derived from More Than 55,000 Water Quality Sites aqnd 2,500 Watersheds (Myers et al., 2007) ................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 4- 27xii

4- 3. Methodology for Estimating and Linking Exposed Populations and Levels of Mercury Exposure ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 4-40 4-4. Linking Census Tracts to D emographic Data and Mercury Fish Tissue Samples ........... 4-42 4- 5. Estimated Chronic Census Tract Carcinogenic Risk from HAP Exposure from Outdoor Sources (2005 NATA) ................................ ................................ ....................... 4- 70 4- 6. Estimated Chronic Census Tract Noncancer (Respiratory) Risk from HAP Exposure from Outdo or Sources (2005 NATA) ................................ ................................ .............. 4- 71 5 - 1. Illustration of BenMAP Approach ................................ ................................ .................. 5 - 11 5 - 2. Data Inputs and Outputs for the BenMAP Model ................................ ......................... 5 - 12 5 - 3. Important Factors Involved in Seeing a Scenic Vista (Malm, 1999) .............................. 5 - 61 5 -4. Mandatory Class I Areas in the U.S. ................................ ................................ ............... 5 - 62 5 - 5. Linkages Between Categories of Ecosystem Services and Components of Human Well - Being from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA, 2005) .............................. 5 - 67 5 - 6. Schematic of the Benefits Assessment Process (U.S. EPA, 2006b) ................................ 5 - 68 5 - 7. Schematics of Ecological Effects of Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition ............................. 5 - 69 5 - 8. Areas Potentially Sensitive to Aquatic Acidification (U.S. EPA, 2008b) ......................... 5 - 72 5 - 9. Areas Potentially Sensitive to Terrestrial Acidification (U.S. EPA, 2008b) .................... 5 - 74 5 - 10. Distribution of Red Spruce (Pink) and Sugar M aple (Green) in the Eastern U.S. (U.S. EPA, 2008b) ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 5 - 75 5 - 11. Ozone Injury to Forest Plants in U.S. by EPA Regions, 2002 ................................ .......... 5 - 84 5 - 12. Estimated Black Cherry, Yellow Poplar, Sugar Maple, Eastern White Pine, Virginia Pine, Red Maple, and Quaking Aspen Biomas s Loss due to Current Ozone Exposure, 2006 - 2008 (U.S. EPA, 2009b) ................................ ................................ ........ 5 - 85 5 - 13. Economic Value of Estimated PM 2.5 - Related Health co - benefits of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards in 2016 According to Epidemiology or Expert- Derived PM Mortality Risk Estimat e ................................ ................................ ........................... 5 - 99 5 - 14. Percentage of Total PM - Related Mortalities of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards in 2016 Avoided by Baseline Air Quality Level ................................ ........... 5 - 100 5 - 15. Cumulative Percentage of Total PM - Related Mortalities of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards in 201 6 Avoided by Baseline Air Quality Level ................................ 5 - 10 2 5B - 1. Map of the Photochemical Modeling Domains. The black outer box denotes the 36 km national modeling domain; the red inner box is the 12 km western U.S. grid; and the blue inner box is the 12 km eastern U .S. grid. ................................ ......... 5B - 2 5B - 2. Change in Design Values Between the 2017 Baseline and 2017 Control Simulations. Negative numbers indicate lower (improved) design values in the control case compared to the baseline ................................ ................................ ......... 5B - 5 5B - 3. Change in Design Values Between the 2017 Base Case and 2017 Control Simulations. Negative numbers indicate lower (improved) design values in the control case compared to the baseline. ................................ ................................ ........ 5B - 6xiii

5B -4. Change in 20% Worst Days Between the 2017 Baseline and 2017 Control Simulations. Negative numbers in dicate lower (improved) visibility expressed in deciviews in the control case compared to the baseline ................................ .............. 5B - 7 5B - 5. Change in Design Values Between the 2017 Baseline and 2017 Control Simulations. Negative numbers indicate lower (improved) design values in t he control case compared to the baseline ................................ ................................ ......... 5B - 8 5C- 1. Comparison of state - level SO 2 emission changes between the interim modeled scenario and the final policy. ................................ ................................ ......................... 5C- 3 5C- 2. Estimated Reduction in Excess PM 2.5- Related Premature Deaths Estimated to Occur in E ach County in 2016 as a Result of the Interim Modeled Mercury and Air Toxics Standards ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 5C- 6 7 - 1. Modeled African -American Population Below the Poverty Level by Census Tract in the Southeast for 2016 ................................ ................................ .............................. 7 -4 5 7 - 2. Modeled White Population Below the Poverty Level by Census Tract in the Southeast for 2016 ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 7 -4 6 7 - 3. Modeled Female Population Below the Poverty Level by Census Tract for 2016 ......... 7 -47 7 -4. Modeled Hispanic Population by Census Tract for 2016 ................................ ............... 7 -48 7 - 5. Modeled Laotian Population by Census Tract for 2016 ................................ ................ 7 -49 7 - 6. Modeled Chippewa Population by Census Tract in the Great Lakes Area for 2016. ..... 7 - 5 0xiv **LIST OF TABLES** Number Page ES- 1. Summary of EPA’s Estimates of Annualized Benefits, Costs, and Net Benefits of the Final MATS in 2016 (billions of 2007$) ................................ ................................ .... ES- 2 ES- 2: Projected Electricity Generating Unit (EGU) Emissions of SO 2, NO X, Mercury, Hydrogen Chloride, PM, and CO 2 with the Base Case and with MATS, 2015 ............... ES- 2 ES- 3. Estimated Reduction in Incidence of Adverse Health Effects of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (95% confidence intervals) ................................ ........................... ES- 5 ES-4. Estimated Economic Value of Health and Welfare Co - Benefits of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (95% confidence intervals, billions of 2007$) .............................. ES- 6 ES- 5. Human Health Effects of Pollutants Affected by the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... ES- 10 ES- 6. Environmental Effects of Pollutants Affected by the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... ES- 12 ES- 7. Estimated Employment Impact Table ................................ ................................ .......... ES- 15 1 - 1. Emission Limitations for Coal - Fired and S olid Oil - Derived Fuel - Fired EGUs ................... 1 - 6 1 - 2. Emission Limitations for Liquid Oil - Fired EGUs ................................ ................................ 1 - 7 1 - 3. Alternate Emission Limitations for Existing Coal - and Oil - Fired EGUs ............................. 1 - 8 1 -4. Alternate Emission Limitations for New Coal - and Oil - Fired EGUs ................................ .. 1 - 9 2 - 1. Existi ng Electricity Generating Capacity by Energy Source, 2009 ................................ .... 2 - 1 2 - 2. Total U.S. Electric Power Industry Retail Sales in 2009 (Billion kWh) .............................. 2 - 2 2 - 3. Electricity Net Generation in 2009 (Billion kWh) ................................ ............................. 2 - 2 2 -4. Coal Steam Electricity Generating Units, by Size, Ag e, Capacity, and Efficiency (Heat Rate) ................................ ................................ ................................ ....................... 2 - 3 2 - 5. U.S. Anthropogenic Mercury Emissions, 1990–2010 ................................ ...................... 2 - 7 2 - 6. U.S. Hydrogen Chloride Emissions, 2005 and 2010 ................................ ......................... 2 - 7 2 - 7. Revenue and Expense Statistics for Major U.S. Investor- Owned Electric Utilities for 2009 ($mi llions) ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 2 - 15 2 - 8. Projected Revenues by Service Category in 2015 for Public Power and InvestorOwned Utilities (billions) ................................ ................................ ................................ 2 - 15 3 - 1. Emissions Limitations for Coal - Fired and Solid Oil - Derived Fuel - Fired Electric Utility Steam Generating Units ................................ ................................ ........................ 3 -4 3 - 2. Emis sions Limitations for Liquid Oil - Fired Electric Utility Steam Generating Units ........ 3 - 5xv

3 - 3. 2009 U.S. Electricity Net Generation and EPA Base Case Projections for 2015 - 2030 (Billion kWh) ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 3 - 7 3 -4. Projected Emissions of SO 2, NO X, Mercury, Hydrogen Chloride, PM, and CO 2 with the Base Case and with MATS, 2015 ................................ ................................ ............. 3 - 10 3 - 5. Annualized Compliance Cost for MATS Requirements on Coal -fired Generation ........ 3 - 1 4 3 - 6. Generation Mix with the Base Case and the MATS, 2015 (Thousand GWh) ................ 3 - 1 6 3 - 7. Characteristics of Covered Operation al Coal Units and Additional Coal Units Projected to Withdraw as Uneconomic under MATS, 2015 ................................ .......... 3 - 1 7 3 - 8. Total Generation Capacity by 2015 (GW) ................................ ................................ ...... 3 - 1 9 3 - 9. Total Generation Capacity by 2030 (GW) ................................ ................................ ...... 3 - 20 3 - 10. 2015 Coal Production for the Electric Power Sector wit h the Base Case and MATS (Million Tons) ................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 3 - 21 3 - 11. 2015 Power Sector Coal Use with the Base Case and the MATS, by Coal Rank (TBtu) ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 3 - 22 3 - 12. Projected Contiguous U.S. and Regional Retail Electricity Prices with the Base Case and with the MATS (2007 cents/kWh) ................................ ................................ .. 3 - 2 4 3 - 13. Average Minemouth and Delivered Coal Prices with the Base Case and with MATS (2007$/MMBtu) ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 3 - 2 6 3 - 14. 2015 - 2030 Weighted Average Henry Hub (spot) and Delivered Natural Gas Prices with the Base Case and with MATS (2007$/MMBtu) ................................ .................... 3 - 2 6 3 - 15. Co st Impacts of Compliance Actions for Oil - Fired Units ................................ ................ 3 - 30 3 - 16. Total Costs Projected for Covered Units under MATS, 2015 (billions of 2007$) .......... 3 - 31 3A- 1. Oil -fired EGUs by Fuel Type ................................ ................................ ........................... 3A- 2 3A- 2. Least Cost NEEDS Modeled Fuels for Oil -fired EGUs ................................ ..................... 3A- 3 3A- 3. Percentage of Total Heat Input Derived from Oil for Oil - Fired Units Subject to Mandatory Natural Gas Curtailment (2008 - 2010) ................................ ........................ 3A- 5 3A-4. Costs to Achieve the MATS Emission Limitations for Oil - Fired Units ............................ 3A- 6 4- 1. Summary of FWHAR State - Level Recreational Fis hing Characteristics ......................... 4- 11 4- 2. Summary of HUC- level Average Mercury Fish Tissue Concentration Estimates ........... 4- 16 4-4. Summary of Baseline Mercury Fish Tissue Concentrations ................................ ........... 4- 50 4- 5. Baseline Levels of Mercury Exposure and IQ Impacts Due to Freshwater SelfCau ght Fish Consumption ................................ ................................ .............................. 4- 51 4- 6. Summary Estimates of the Aggregate Size and Present Value of IQ Losses Under Alternative Base Case and Emissions Control Scenarios ................................ ............... 4- 56 4- 7. Aggregate Benefit Estimates for Reductions IQ Losses Associated with Alternative Emi ssions Reduction Scenarios ................................ ................................ ...................... 4- 56 4- 8. Unquantified Health and Ecosystem Effects Associated with Exposure to Mercury .... 4- 65xvi

4A- 1. Reported Trip Travel Distance for Freshwater Anglers (Miles) ................................ ..... 4A- 2 4A- 2. Demographic Characteristics of Freshwater Anglers ................................ .................... 4A- 2 4A- 3. Demographic Characteristics of Freshwater Anglers ................................ .................... 4A- 3 4A-4. OLS Regression Results for Determinants of Reported Trip Travel Distance (Miles) .... 4A-4 4A- 5. Travel Distance Frequencies by Demographic Group (Percentage in Each Distance Category) ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 4A- 6 5 - 1. Estimated Monetized Co - benefits of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards in 2016 (billions of 2007$) ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5 - 3 5 - 2. Human Health Effects of Pollutants Affected by the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 5 -4 5 - 3. Environmental Effects of Pollutants Affected by the Me rcury and Air Toxics Standards ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 5 - 6 5 -4. Primary Sources of Uncertainty in the Benefits Analysis ................................ .............. 5 - 18 5 - 5. Criteria Used When Selecting C- R Functions ................................ ................................ . 5 - 22 5 - 6. Health Endpoints and Epidemiological Studies Used to Quantify Health Impacts ....... 5 - 24 5 - 7. Baseline I ncidence Rates and Population Prevalence Rates for Use in Impact Functions, General Population ................................ ................................ ...................... 5 - 37 5 - 8. Asthma Prevalence Rates Used for this Analysis ................................ ........................... 5 - 39 5 - 9. Expected Impact on Estimated Benefits of Premature Mortality Reductions of Differences Between Factors Used in Developing Applied VSL and Theoretically Appropriate VSL ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 5 -43 5 - 10. Alternative Direct Medical Cost of Illness Estimates for Non -fatal Heart Attacks ........ 5 -48 5 - 11. Estimated Costs Over a 5 -Year Period (in 2006$) of a Non

-fatal Myocardial Infarction ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 5 -49 5 - 12. Unit Values for Economic Valuation of Health Endpoints (2006$) ................................ 5 - 51 5 - 13. Elasticity Values Used to Account for Projected Real Income Growth ......................... 5 - 57 5 - 14. Adjustment Factors Used to Account for Projected Real Income Growth .................... 5 - 59 5 - 15. Aquatic Status Categories ................................ ................................ .............................. 5 - 71 5 - 16. Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) Estimates (per tonne of CO 2 ) for 2016 (in 2007$) ............ 5 - 90 5 - 17. Monetized Co - Benefits of CO 2 Emissions Reductions in 2016 (in millions of 2007$) ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 5 - 91 5 - 18. Estimated Reduction in Incidence of Adverse Hea lth Effects of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards in 2016 (95% confidence intervals) ................................ .............. 5 - 95 5 - 19. Estimated Economic Value of Health and Welfare co - benefits of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards in 2016 (95% confidence intervals, billions of 2007$) ................. 5 - 96 5 - 20 . Estimated Reduction in Incidence of Premature Adult Mortality due to the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards in 2016 Occurring Above and Below the Lowest Measured Levels in the Underlying Epidemiology Studies ................................ ................................ ............... 5 - 101xvii

5A- 1. 2005 US Emissions by Sector ................................ ................................ ......................... 5A- 5 5A- 2. 2005 Base Year SO 2 Emissions (tons/year) for States by Sector ................................ .... 5A- 5 5A- 3. 2005 Base Year PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) for States by Sector ................................ . 5A- 7 5A-4. Summary of Mobile Source Control Programs Included in the Future Year Baseline ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 5A- 11 5A- 5. Control Strategies and/or Growth Assumptions Included in the Future Year Baseline for Non - EGU Stationary Sources ................................ ................................ ... 5A- 13 5A- 6. Summary of Modeled Base Case Annual Emissions (tons/year) for 48 States by Sector: SO 2 and PM 2.5 ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 5A- 15 5A- 7. Future Year Baseline SO 2 Emiss ions (tons/year) for States by Sector ......................... 5A- 15 5A- 8. Future Year Baseline PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/year) for States by Sector ...................... 5A- 17 5A- 9. Future Year Baseline EGU CAP Emissions (tons/year) by State ................................ ... 5A- 19 5A- 10. Summary of Emissions Changes for the MATS AQ Modeli ng in the Lower 48 States ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 5A- 22 5A- 11. EGU Emissions Totals for the Modeled MATS Control Case in the Lower 48 States .. 5A- 22 5A- 12. State Specific Changes in Annual EGU SO 2 for the Lower 48 States ............................ 5A- 24 5A- 13. State Specific Changes in Annual EGU PM 2.5 for the Lower 48 States ......................... 5A- 26 5B - 1. Geographic Elements of Domains Used in Photochemical Modeling ........................... 5B - 3 5C- 1. Estimated Reduction in Incidence of Adverse Health Effects of the Interim Modeled Mercury and Air Toxics Standards in 2016 (95% confidence intervals) ......... 5C-4 5C- 2. Estimated Economic Value of Health and Welfare Benefits of the Interim Modeled Mercury and Air Toxics Standards in 2016 (95% confidence intervals, billions of 2007$) ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 5C- 5 5C- 3. Estimated Economic Value of Adult Mortality Benefits by Pollutant, in Total and Per Ton of Emissions Reduced Interim Modeled Mercury and Air Toxics Standard in 2016 (95% confidence intervals, 2007$) ................................ ................................ .... 5C- 8 5D - 1. Estimated Reduction in Incidence of Premature Adult Mortality for the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards in 2016 by State ................................ ................................ ..... 5D - 3 5D - 2. Estimated Economic Value of Health Benefits of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standard in 2016 by State (billions of 2007$, 3% discount rate) ................................ .. 5D - 5 6 - 1. Percent of Abatement Expenditures in Different PACE Studies from Add - On or End -of- Line Control Measures ................................ ................................ ......................... 6 - 3 6 - 2. Employment Impacts Within the Regulated Industry Using Peer- Reviewed Study Estimates using Morgenstern et al. (2002) ................................ ................................ ...... 6 - 7 6 - 3. Increased Pollution Control Installations due to MATS, by 2015 (GW) ......................... 6 - 10xviii

6 -4. Employment Effects Using t he Environmental Protection Sector Approach for the MATS (in Job -Years) ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 6 - 10 6 - 5. Other Employment Impacts of MATS (in Job -Years) ................................ ..................... 6 - 11 6 - 6. Estimated Employment Impact for the MATS ................................ ............................... 6 - 1 2 6A- 1. Net Employment Changes for 2015 (job -years) ................................ ............................ 6A- 2 6A- 2. Increased Pollution Control Demand due to the final MATS, 2015 (GW) ..................... 6A-4 6A- 3. Estimated Pollution Control Resource Needs (Quantity and Prices Used) ................... 6A- 6 6A-4. Jobs Due to Pollution Control Equipment under the final MATS (Job -years in 2015) ................................ ................................ ................................ .............................. 6A- 7 6A- 5. Annual Job Losses due to Coal Capacity Retirements for 2015 ................................ ..... 6A- 8 6A- 6. Annual Employment Impacts Due To Changes in Coal Use for 2015 .......................... 6A- 10 6A- 7. Annual Employment Impact due to Changes in Fuel Use (2015) ................................ 6A- 10 6A- 8. Installation Labor Requirement ................................ ................................ ................... 6A- 11 6A- 9. Resources Needed for Operation ................................ ................................ ................ 6A- 12 6A- 10. Operating Labor Assumptions ................................ ................................ ..................... 6A- 13 6A- 11. Inputs to Labor from Retirements ................................ ................................ ............... 6A- 13 6A- 12. Inputs to Labor for Fuel Use ................................ ................................ ........................ 6A- 14 7 - 1. Projected Impact of MATS on Small Entities in 2015 ................................ .................... 7 - 1 5 7 - 2. Incremental Annualized Costs un der MATS Summarized by Ownership Group and Cost Category in 2015 (2007$ millions) ................................ ................................ ......... 7 - 17 7 - 3. Incremental Annualized Costs under MATS Summarized by Ownership Group and Cost Category ( 2007$ millions) in 2015 ................................ ................................ ......... 7 - 23 7 -4. Summary of Potential Impacts on Governm ent Entities under MATS in 2015 ............. 7 - 24 7 - 5. Comparative Summary of the Demographics within 5 Kilometers (3 Miles) of the Affected Sources (population in millions) ................................ ................................ ...... 7 - 39 7 - 6. Reported Distributions of Self- Caught Freshwater Fish Consumption Rates Among Selecte d Potentially High - Risk Subpopulations ................................ ................. 7 -44 7 - 7 . Change in the Percentage of All Deaths Attributable to PM 2.5 Before and After Implementation of MATS by 2016 for Each Populations, Stratified by Race ................ 7 - 52 7 - 8 . Change in the Percentage of All Deaths Attribut able to PM 2.5 Before and After Implementation of MATS by 2016 for Each Population, Stratified by Race and Poverty Level ................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 7 - 53 7 - 9 . Change in the Percentage of All Deaths Attributable to PM 2.5 Before and After the Implementation of MATS by 2016 for Each Popu lation, Stratified by Educational Attainment ................................ ................................ ................................ . 7 - 53 8 - 1. Summary of EPA’s Estimates of Annualized Benefits, Costs, and Net Benefits of the Final MATS in 2016 (billions of 2007$) ................................ ................................ ...... 8 - 2