Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Great Lakes Region

December 2015

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - December 2015 - 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

 Great Lakes Significant Events - for September - November 2015

Precipitation

Regional Climate Overview - for September - November 2015

Fall 2015 was unseasonably warm across the Great Lakes 

basin. With above-average fall temperatures, areas across 

the basin experienced record or near-record late fall freeze 

dates, reduced snow cover, and delayed development of 

ice cover on the Great Lakes. It was the second warmest fall 

on record for Ohio and the third warmest for New York and 

Pennsylvania, with several locations in the Great Lakes basin 

(U.S. and Canada) having near-record warmth for individual 

fall months. Fall precipitation varied from near- to belowaverage across the Great Lakes basin.

Water levels for the Great Lakes typically decline during 

the fall months as evaporation increases. October was 

relatively dry for most of the Great Lakes basin and water 

levels throughout the system declined more than usual for 

that month. In November, above-average water supplies for 

the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan-Huron basins slowed 

the decline for those lakes, while dry conditions persisted 

throughout the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario basins resulting 

in above average water level declines.

Two major storm events occurred in the Great Lakes basin on October 29 and November 12-13, bringing heavy precipitation, high winds, 

and large waves to the Great Lakes. During both events, wind gusts of 83 to 93 km/hr (52 to 58 mph) produced high waves on lakes Michigan, 

Erie, and Ontario. On October 29, waves topped out at 3.7 m (12 ft) and 4.6 m (15 ft) on lakes Michigan and Erie, respectively, while waves 

on November 12 and 13 reached a height of 4 m (13 ft) on Lake Ontario and 5.2 m (17 ft) on lakes Michigan and Erie. In both events, the high 

westerly winds over Lake Erie pushed water from one end of the lake to the other causing water levels on the west end at Toledo, Ohio to fall 

while levels rose on the east end at Buffalo, New York. The water level change was more significant during the November 13 event, with water 

levels falling in Toledo by 1.8 m (5.9 ft) and rising in Buffalo by 2.1 m (6.9 ft). 

Air Temperature

September was a warm month, with temperatures up to 5°C (9°F) above normal. October 

temperatures varied. Areas east of Lake Ontario were up 

to 1°C (1.8°F) below normal, while temperatures ranged 

from near normal to 2°C (3.6°F) above normal elsewhere. 

November was also warm, with temperatures up to 6°C 

(10.8°F) above normal. With generally mild temperatures 

each month, fall 2015 average temperatures were up to 

4°C (7.2°F) above normal. 

Water level statistics based on 1918-2014. 

Sept-Nov 2015 Air Temp: 

Departure from Normal

Great Lakes Temperature

Water Levels

Conditions for the Lake Superior and Lake 

Michigan-Huron basins were generally wet 

this fall. Lake Superior and Lake MichiganHuron were 13 cm (5.1 in) and 18 cm (7.1 

in) above average at the end of November, 

respectively. However, these levels are 9 cm 

(3.5 in) and 2 cm (0.8 in) lower, respectively, 

than this time last year. The fall season 

started wet but ended dry for the Lake 

Erie and Lake 

Ontario basins. 

Despite the dry 

latter half of the 

season, Lake 

Erie ended the 

quarter 22 cm 

(8.7 in) above 

average, which 

was 4 cm (1.6 

in) higher than last year. Lake Ontario was 

4 cm (1.6 in) below average at the end of 

the fall season but 5 cm (2 in) higher than 

last year.

September brought near- to below-average precipitation 

to all lake basins but Ontario, with the Great Lakes basin 

receiving 85% of average. October precipitation was nearaverage for all lake basins, so the entire basin saw 95% 

of average. The Erie and Ontario basins were quite dry in 

November, while the other basins were near average. The 

overall basin received 88% of average. Fall precipitation for 

the whole basin was 89% of average, with all lake basins 

seeing near- to below-average precipitation.

Precipitation normals based on 1981-2010.

Air temperature normals based on 1981-2010. Water temperature normals based on long-term average (1995-2014).

Sept-Nov 2015 Precip: 

Percent of Normal (%)

Water Temperature

Great Lakes water temperatures were also unseasonably 

warm during fall. A majority of the basin was above the 

long-term average by up to 2.5°C (4.5°F), with only a few 

small areas of below-normal water temperatures.

Lake Michigan on 9/15/2015 

(Photo: GLERL via Flickr)
Regional Impacts - for September - November 2015

Regional Outlook - for January - March 2016 Great Lakes Region Partners

Environment Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

www.agr.gc.ca 

Midwestern Regional Climate Center

mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Great Lakes Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

www.glerl.noaa.gov

NOAA Great Lakes Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

North Central River Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc

Ohio River Forecast Center

www.weather.gov/ohrfc 

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Office for Coastal Management

http://coast.noaa.gov/

Great Lakes Integrated Sciences & Assessments

www.glisa.umich.edu

US Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District

www.lre.usace.army.mil

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Contact for NOAA: 

Molly Woloszyn: mollyw@illinois.edu

Samantha Borisoff: samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu

Contact for Environment Canada: 

greatlakes-grandslacs@ec.gc.ca

enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - December 2015 - 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

Contact Information

Environment Canada (EC) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are both calling for high 

chances of above-normal temperatures across the Great Lakes basin from January-March 

2016, with higher chances in the northern Great Lakes near Lake Superior. For precipitation, 

CPC shows a greater chance for below-normal precipitation in the U.S. basins of Superior and 

Michigan-Huron, while EC’s outlook does not show a strong signal on whether precipitation 

will be below-, near-, or above-normal in the Canadian Great Lakes basin. 

The current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks can be found through the 

Climate Prediction Center and Environment Canada.

Transportation, Society, & Recreation

The high winds during the November 12-

13 event caused significant transportation 

issues in areas around the Great Lakes. 

The Chicago Skyway Bridge was closed in 

both directions for just over 12 hours due 

to high winds and the Indiana Toll Road 

issued a ban on some large trucks as 

well. Hundreds of flights were delayed at 

Chicago O’Hare International Airport and 

Detroit Metropolitan Airport. The high 

winds caused extensive power outages 

in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. With 

the large waves on the Great Lakes, boaters were urged to stay off the 

water. The large rise in water levels on November 13 in eastern Lake 

Erie caused water to flow up over the breakwall in Fort Erie, Ontario, 

producing significant flooding along the Niagara Parkway in Fort Erie. 

Agriculture

Despite the cold start to the growing season and a wet June, the 

unseasonably warm and drier conditions this fall allowed for proper 

crop maturity and development, as well as a timely harvest of crops 

across the basin. The weather conditions were also ideal for planting 

of crops like winter wheat. In Ontario, yields for grains, oilseeds, and 

late-season crops were above average. 

Wildlife

The migration of waterfowl is weather 

dependent and mild fall weather typically 

delays migration. This has been the case 

this year and it has been most pronounced 

in the western Great Lakes basin and 

northern Great Plains in the U.S.

Water Quality

The 2015 harmful algal bloom in Lake Erie was recorded as the largest 

bloom this century. Although the bloom was the largest on record, 

the toxin concentrations were not as severe 

as expected considering the bloom’s extent 

and no drinking water advisories were issued. 

Drinking water impacts from the algal toxins 

in Lake Erie are extremely rare even though 

the blooms have been occurring for over 

15 years. This indicates that bloom severity 

does not always equate to increased risk and 

highlights the ability of municipalities along 

Lake Erie to successfully treat incoming water 

and provide safe drinking water to Great 

Lakes residents.

Lake Level Outlook

Great Lakes water levels are typically 

at their lowest during the winter due to 

higher evaporation rates and reduced 

basin runoff at this time of year. Water 

levels are expected to remain above 

average for Lakes Superior, MichiganHuron and Erie unless exceedingly dry 

conditions are experienced. Lake Ontario 

water levels are expected to remain 

near or slightly below average unless 

exceedingly dry or wet conditions are 

experienced.

Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

The 2015 harmful algal bloom 

in Lake Erie.

(Photo: Ohio Sea Grant)

Waves break near the lighthouse in 

Muskegon, MI on 11/12/15.

(Photo: NOAA GLERL)

A redhead duck in Duluth, MN on 

11/15/15 (Rich Hoeg via Flickr)

Ice Cover Outlook

Potential range for water levels for Jan-Mar 2016 

compared to the long-term average (1918-2014). 

MODIS image of below 

normal ice cover on 

the Great Lakes on 

2/19/2010 (Image: 

NOAA GLERL).

Winter 2015/16 is projected to be influenced by 

strong El Niño conditions, similar in magnitude to 

the 1997/98 event, which resulted in significant 

warming in the Great Lakes region. Consequently, 

NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research 

Laboratory is forecasting maximum ice coverage 

of the Great Lakes to be about 30.9% this winter, 

well below the long-term average of 53.2%. How 

the warmer-than-average temperatures due to El 

Niño will influence evaporation totals and water 

levels this winter is uncertain, though, since the 

variability in water supply for the Great Lakes 

watershed is sensitive to a number of other 

meteorological 

and hydrologic 

factors.