La Niña Impacts 

and Outlook

Missouri River Basin

November 2022

Typical La Niña Winter Pattern 

Highlights for the Basin

A La Niña develops when sea surface 

temperatures in the eastern equatorial 

Pacific are consistently cooler than 

average for an extended period of time. 

These cool waters affect the location of 

the jet streams, which impacts weather in 

North America. The most notable impacts 

occur in winter.

While no two La Niña events are alike, 

there are some general patterns that are 

predictable. For instance, the polar jet 

stream is typically farther north than usual 

during La Niña winters.

For the Missouri River Basin states, the 

typical winter La Niña pattern leads to 

increased chances for below-normal 

temperatures across the northern states. 

In addition, the northern Rockies often 

see increased chances of above-normal 

precipitation. 

La Niña Outlook 

Winter Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks 

Valid for December 2022 - February 2023

The winter precipitation outlook has a slightly 

increased chance of below-normal precipitation 

in the southern portions of the basin and abovenormal chances across Montana and northwestern 

Wyoming. For the rest of the area, there are 

equal chances of above-, below-, and near-normal 

precipitation

A La Niña Advisory is currently in effect, which 

means La Niña conditions have developed and are 

expected to continue. Sea surface temperatures 

in the east-central tropical Pacific are moderately 

below normal and near their peak minimum. 

According to the NOAA Climate Prediction 

Center, there is a 76 percent chance that La 

Niña conditions will last through the Northern 

Hemisphere winter, with a 57 percent chance that 

conditions will transition to ENSO-neutral by early 

spring. 

Missouri Basin Region El Niño Impacts and Outlook | November 2022

https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Contact: Gannon Rush (grush2@unl.edu)

Doug Kluck (doug.kluck@noaa.gov)

The image (source: NOAA) above shows the typical pattern in the winter 

during La Niña events. The polar jet stream, indicated by the thick blue 

arrow, tends to transverse through the Missouri Basin, making it the dividing 

line between cold and warm air masses. This means that colder conditions 

could be in store for areas of the upper Basin, while the southern Basin and 

the Plains could be warm and dry.

Temperature Precipitation

Image courtesy of the National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration.

 As of mid-October, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlooks 

largely follow a typical La Niña pattern for the Missouri River 

Basin. Cooler temperatures are slightly favored in the northern 

part of the basin, while warmer temperatures are slightly 

favored in western Colorado. The rest of the basin has equal 

chances of above-, below-, and near-normal temperatures. 
Potential Winter and Spring Impacts

With much of the Missouri River Basin heading into winter with 

drought conditions, several potential risks are present. With anticipated 

cold outbreaks, frost depths could be deeper due to dry soils. With low 

soil moisture present, agriculture will be heavily dependent on spring 

precipitation for recharge. The absence of snow cover associated with 

below-normal precipitation, particularly in drought-stricken areas, 

would impact winter wheat and alfalfa. The ongoing drought has 

created an elevated fire risk for much of the region. 

Comparisons and Limitations MO River Basin Partners

Contact: Gannon Rush (grush2@unl.edu)

Doug Kluck (doug.kluck@noaa.gov)

Missouri Basin Region El Niño Impacts and Outlook | November 2022 

https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

High Plains Regional Climate Center 

www.hprcc.unl.edu

National Drought Mitigation Center 

http://drought.unl.edu/

National Integrated Drought Information System 

https://www.drought.gov/

NOAA NCEI 

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

NOAA NWS - Central Region 

www.weather.gov/crh

NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

NOAA NWS Missouri Basin River Forecast Center 

www.weather.gov/mbrfc 

American Association of State Climatologists 

https://www.stateclimate.org/

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 

www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 

https://www.usbr.gov/

USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub 

www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov

Persistent and intense drought is affecting rivers and streams across 

the region. As a result, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers expects runoff 

to be below normal through the winter and likely spring. Due to the 

unpredictability of precipitation during La Niña, it is hard to predict any 

major changes to conditions. Even with above-normal precipitation, 

drought conditions may not improve and persist into spring. 

The increased chances of above-normal precipitation in the 

northwestern part of the basin could lead to enhanced snow activities 

such as skiing or snowboarding. While the above-normal precipitation 

would be welcomed, the below-normal temperatures could lead to 

frozen pipes and increased heating costs. 

Winter Conditions of Past La Niñas

The maps above show the winter conditions of the most recent La 

Niña event in 2021-2022. Most of the Basin was warmer than average. 

Precipitation was also below normal for much of the region except for the 

Rocky Mountains and eastern North Dakota. Locations in the southern 

portions of the basin recorded their driest winter and lowest snowfall on 

record. This most recent La Niña did not conform to expectations, which 

shows that no two La Niña events are the same. As a result, it is important

Missouri River and Streams 

Economy 

Agriculture

Drought conditions for the Missouri River 

Basin as of November 10, 2022.

Changes to historical snowfall patterns for La 

Niña. Blue indicates above normal snowfall.

to note that there are limits to the predictability of impacts this winter, and other factors should be considered. For 

instance, in the Missouri Basin, La Niña is not known to predict: 1) first freeze in the fall, 2) last freeze in the spring, 

3) potential for ice storms or blizzards, 4) track or intensity of any single weather system, or 5) potential for drought/

flooding in the spring.