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1982 SAY AREA AIR QUALITY PLAM 

Prepared by 

Association of Bay Area 6overments 

Bay Area Air Quality Nanagewent District 

Ifetropolitan Transportation CoRSission 

Ftotel Claremont, Berkeley, California 94705 

December 1982 
< 

rn , 

TABLE OF CONTENTS - 

PAGE 

A 

List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv 

Li st of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v1 ~ 

SECTION I. SU!l1ARY OF THE PLAl1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 

REYIEW OF T}E 1979 BAY AREA AIR QUALITY PLAN. .......... 1 

PRESENT AND PROJECTED AIR QUALITY PROBLEMS. . . . . . . . . . . . 1 , 

PROPOSED CONTROL PROGRANS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 

BENEFITS AND COSTS OF THE PLAtf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 

IMPLEIIENTAT ION SCHEDULE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 

ANMIAL AIR QUALITY REPORTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 

SECTION II. BACKfR0UN4 OF THE PLAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 - 

OZONE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 , 

CARBUN IMXIDE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 

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TOTAL SUSPENOED PARTICULATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 

ANltUAL REPORT FOR 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 

I NST I TUT I ONAl. ORGAJI I ZAT I ON FOR PLAM PRf PARAT I ON ......... 31 = 

TNE 1982 PWf REYISION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 

EPA R£QUIREIENTS FOR 1982 SIP RfYISI01tS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 

REVIEY OF EXISTIN6 COlITROL PROGRAFLS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 

SFCTI011 III. PRESENT /4!O PR4,lECTED EMISSIONS, AIR QUALITY AJD 

EMISSION REDUCTION TAR6ETS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 I 

PRESENT AIR QUALITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 ~ 

PRfSENT A1b PROJECTfD E1IISSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 

1979 A!D 1987 Bt SELINE OZONE SIlULATI01tS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 ~ 

LIRAQ OZOI'E SFXSITIYITY AKALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 ~ 

PRESENT AMD PRUrJECTED CO PROBLEMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 

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PAGE 

SECTION IV. OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . 94 

MOTOR VEHICLE INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 

STATIONARY SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 

TRANSPORTATION CONTROL MEASURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 

; ADMINISTRATIVE PROGRAMS FOR LONG-TERM MAINTENANCE . . . . . . . . 108 

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 

~ SECTION V. CARBON MONOXIDE CONTROL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT. ...... 118 

ALTERNATIVE CONTROL MEASURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 m 

CONTROL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 

RECOMMENDED CARBON MONOXIDE CONTROL STRATEGY. . . . . . . . . . . 132 

. SECTION VI. THE BENEFITS OF CLEANER AIR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 

OZONE ..............................140 

CARBON MONOXIDE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 

EFFECTS AND COSTS OF MULTIPLE POLLUTANTS . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 

CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 

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SECTION VII. FUTURE ACTIVITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 

POTENTIAL TRENDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 

TRAVEL MONITORING SYSTEM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 e 

ANNUAL AIR QUALITY REPORTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 

APPENDIX A STATIONARY SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES 

APPENOIX B TRANSPORTATION CONTROL MEASURES 

APPENDIX C ADDITIONAL MEASURES RECOMMENDED BY THE JOINT A'IR QUALITY 

PLANNING AND ADVISORY COMMITTEE FOR CONSIDERATION IN THE 

DRAFT 1982 PLAN 

ii 
APPENDIX D CONTROL MEASURES CONSIDERED NOT REASONABLY AVAILABLE 

APPENDIX E EMISSION INVENTORIES, 1979-2000 

APPENDIX F AMENDMENT TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT REPORT ON THE SAN 

FRANCISCO BAY AREA ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PLAN 

APPENDIX G DIRECT A!JD INDIRECT EMISSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR FEDERAL 

ACTIONS, 1982-1987 

APPENDIX H TRANSPORTATION CONFORMITY ASSESSMENT PROCEDURES AND 

CONTINGENCY PLAN 

APPENDIX I IMPLEMENTATION COMMITMENTS 

APPENDIX J SUMMARY OF PUBLIC COMMENTS 

APPENDIX K CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD NEW VEHICLE STANDARDS SUMIARY 

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LIST OF FIGURES ' 

PAGE 

Figure 1. Schedule of Hydrocarbon Emission Reductions 

Proposed to Achieve the Federal Ozone Standard 

in the San Francisco Bay Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 

Figure 2. Air Quality Planning Boundary, San Francisco 

B ay Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 

Figure 3. 1979 Expected Annual Exceedances of Federal 

Ozone Standard in days per year with maximum 

hourly ozone concentration exceeding 0.12 ppm, 

based on 3-year average (1977-1979) . . . . . . . . . . . 49 

Figure 4. 1969 Expected Annual Exceedances of Federal 

Ozone Standard in days per year with maximum 

hourly ozone concentration exceeding 0.12 ppm, 

based on 3-year average (1967-1969) . . . . . . . . . . . 49 v 

Figure 5. Ozone Trends, 1965-1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 

Figure 6. Baseline Emission Inventory Projections, . 

1975-2000 for Reactive Organics (Hydrocarbons), 

Oxides of Nitrogen, and Carbon Monoxide . . . . . . . . . 54 

Figure 7. Spatial Distribution of Biogenic Hydrocarbon - 

Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 

Figure 8. LIRAQ-Generated Mean Ozone Concentration from 

3 pm t o 4 pm P S T . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 

Figure 9. Projected 1987 Baseline Maximum Ozone 

Concentrations Under Existing Control Programs 

Based on LIRAQ Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 

Figure 10. Ozone Level Versus Total Hydrocarbons Normalized .. 

to 1979 Baseline, Based on LIRAQ Tests ......... 78 

Figure 11. Bay Area Carbon Monoxide (CO) Hnt Spot Locations .... 81 

Figure 12. San Jose Study Area and Monitoring Site ......... 82 

Figure 13. Oakland Monitoring Site . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 

Figure 14. Spatial Variation of Carbon Monoxide in an 

Urban Setting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 

Figure 15. 1987 Baseline CO Concentrations in Downtown 

San Jose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 

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Figure 16. Transit Mall and San Antonio Plaza Site in 

Relation to Downtown San Jose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 

Figure 17. Schedule of Nydrocarbon Emission Reductions 

Proposed to Achieve the Federal Ozone Standard 

in the San Francisco Bay Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 

Figure 18. LIRAQ-Generated 1987 Maximum Ozone Concentration 

on Design Value Day with the Proposed Ozone 

Control Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 

Figure 19. Expected 1987 CO Concentrations in Downtown 

San Jose with Motor Vehicle Inspection and 

M aintenance Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 

Figure 20. Oakland Central District. Study Area . . . . . . . . . . . 131 

Figure 21. Annual Carbon Monoxide Reductions from the 

Recommended Control Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 

Figure 22. Vehicle Trips in gay Area: Non-Commercial Travel .... 149 

Figure 23. VMT in Bay Area: Total Travel . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 

v 
LIST OF TABLES 

Table 1. Assessment of Control Measure Recommendations 

for the 1982 Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 

Table 2. Summary of Hydrocarbon Emission Reductions from 

the 1919 Bay Area Air Quality Plan . . . . . . . . . . . 29 

Table 3. San Francisco Bay Area Emission Inventory Summary, 

1979-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 

Table 4. Comparison of Baseline Travel Forecasts ......... 57 

Table 5. 1975 Hot Stabilized Highway Link Emission Factor 

Compari sons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 

Table 6. 1975 Light-Duty Vehicle Trips End Emission Factor 

Compari sons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 

Table 7. Comparison of Percent Contribution to Regional 

Vehicle Miles of Travel by Vehicle Category ....... 59 

Table 8. 1979 Truck Emission Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 

Table 9. September Weekday Organic Emission Reductions by 

Control Measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 

Table 10. Summary of 1979 Ozone Compliance Status of BAAQMD 

Monitoring Sites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 

Table 11. Comparison of Observed and LIRAQ-simulated Hourly 

Average Ozone Concentrations (in pphm) at 21 Bay 

Area Monitoring Stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 

Table 12. Baseline LIRAQ Simulation Results Using the 

September 29, 1978 Prototype Meteorology Together 

with Emission Inventories for 1979 and 1987 ....... 72 

Table 13. Sensitivity Coefficients . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 

Table 14. Comparison of LIRAQ Simulations with and without 

Biogenic Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 

Table 15. Fractional Contribution of Biogenic Emissions to 

Total Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 

Table 16. Comparison of Effect of Mobile and Stationary 

Source Emission Reductions on Ozone . . . . . . . . . . . 76 

Table 17. Bay Area CO Hot Spot Monitoring Data. .......... 79 

PAGE 

vi 
PAGE 

Table 18. Baseline 1987 Carbon Monoxide Concentrations for 

San Jose, Oakland and Vallejo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 

Table 19. CO Background Concentration Levels for 1979 and 

Baseline 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 

Table 20. Factors Affecting Trip-Making Activity Considered 

in Guadalupe Corridor Travel Forecasts . . . . . . . . . 89 

Table 21. Summary of Alternative Stationary Source Controls 

Considered . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 

Table 22. Ranking of Proposed Stationary Source Control 

Measures in Order of Preference Based on Cost 

per Unit Ozone Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 

Table 23. Stationary Source Control Measures Considered 

Not Reasonably Available . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 

Table 24. Assessment of Clean Air Act Section 108(f) 

Transportation Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 

Table 25. Recommended Transportation Controls . . . . . . . . . . . 105 

Table 26. Tentative Schedule for Implementation of 

Statinnary Source Control Measures. . . . . . . . . . . . 111 

Table 21. Annual Hydrocarbon Emission Reductions from 

Recommended Control Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 

Table 28. Comparison of San Jose Transportation Measures 

with Clean Air Act Section 108(f) Measures ....... 121 

Table 29. Cumulative Effectiveness of Proposed Control 

Measures on CO Concentration in San Jose. ........ 129 

Table 30. Summary of Recommended Carbon Monoxide Control 

Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 

Table 31. Annual Carbon Monoxide Emission Reductions from 

the Recommended Control Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 

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o Population growth as forecast in ABAG's Projections '79 . 

o Employment growth and production at various industrialcommercial and manufacturing operations. 

o Allowance for future cogeneration/resource recovery projects 

(with combined emissions of 1.5 tons/day particulate, 3.3 

tons/day organics, 15.1 tons/day NOx , 2.6 tons/day S0 2 , and 

18.2 tons/day CO). 

o Control technology. 

o Effects of existing and future control regulations (i.e., 

BAApO Regulation 8, Rules 1-28). 

o Other - including engineering judgecent on aodifications to 

all of the above assum+ptions. 

Energy assuaptions generally do®inate the other assumptions when 

calculating projections of sass eeission rates froa stationary sources. 

Detailed documwntation of the data and assumptions used to prepare 

the eaission estieates for each source category is contained in the 

'Source Category Nethodoiogy' document prepared by 6AAQM (June 1982). 

ISotor Yehicle Emissions 

The inventory of arotor vehicle ewissions is divided into two parts: 

(i) link enissions - Occurring ainly on waf or streets and 

highways, these e issions are frow vehicle engines that 

are fully +rar¢ed up (i.e., hot stabilized). 

(ii) trip end ewissions - These ewissions occur at the 

beginning aWi end of each trip due to different engine 

operating characteristics. There are three types of trip 

end enissions: cold start, hot start and hot soak. 

The raethods and data used to coatpute link and trip end ewissions 

are Quite different, as are their resulting geographic and hourly 

distributions. These wethods are fully docuaented in Tech. Newo 12 

(Yada and Kan, 1977) for the 1919 Bay Area Air Quality Plan. For the 

1982 Plan, a nueber of changes in a ethodology were adopted to reflect 

wore recent derelopaents. These are described in the following 

sections. 

Re ional Trarel Forecasts -- Table 4 suaraarizes the current trarel 

forecasts and presents, or comparison purposes, the corresponding 

outputs fron the previous forecasts for the 1979 Plan. A coaparison of 

this baseline with the earlier baseline sho+es that the current one is 

slightly lower. This is expected, however, since the current baseline 

incorporates the iaprovements in transit serrice that were adopted in 

the 1979 Plan. 

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TABLE 4. COMPARISON OF BASELINE TRAVEL FORECASTS 

Vehicle 

Year Trips VMT 

1982 1979 9,987,800 77,300,000 

Plan 1987 11,251,400 90,400,000 

Baseline 1975 9,048,800 64,537,900 

1985 10,758,400 80,490,700 

1979 2000 12,898,800 108,999.400 

Plan 

ont ro 

Alt. 1985 10,482,800 78,456,100 

Enission Factors. In the 1979 Plan the emission factors were based 

on s , woAified to account for EPA's Draft Supplesent 8 to 

AP-42. For the 1982 update, the factors were based on EMFAC 6c (ARB, 

1980 and 1981), and provided by ARB as before. To illustrate the 

difference in eoission factors, Tables 5 and 6 are comparisons of the 

link and trip end factors, respectivety, for both pians for the year 

1975. E?ifAC 6c reflects EPA's revised methodolog)► for co®puting speed 

and temperature correction factors (USEPA, 1918). Ewfssion factors are 

derived on the basis of the 1975 Federal Test Procedure, which assunes 

aun aatbient tewperature of 75 °F and an average route speed of 19.6 wiles 

per hour. E1fAC 6c also reflects ARB estimates of vehicle use, age 

distribution, and vehicle deterioration rates. Speed and temperature 

corrrection factors are required in the inventory process to reflect 

local coediti,.ns as wch as possible. 

Separate trip end eoissions inventories were developed for the 

ozone and carbon wonoxide control strategy analyses to reflect the 

difference in tewperature profile between a day in the worst ozone 

season an0 a day in the +rorst CO season. The e•issions inventory for 

ozone was for a Septeober weekday. while the inventory for carbon 

monoxide was foc a tiovewber weekday, when aabient teaperatures would be 

1 ower. 

Yebicle Mix. The vehicle nix used in the 1979 Plan is cox+pared in 

Table 7 with the current eix assWtions for the 1982 Plan. The 1979 

Plan was bised on statewide average vehicle travel as estiwated in 1975. 

wbereas the currmt wix assualptions are based on actual Bay Area truck 

cowrts catiducted by Caitrans for fiTC (Xnudson. 1981). These counts 

revealed that the percentage of trucks actually on the road in the Bay 

Mea is significantly lower than was asswied for the 1979 Plan. 

A further refinewent of the vehicle +aix was the separate accounting 

for wedfaa-duty trucks. For the 1979 Plan, wedium-duty truck earission 

fact.ors and estimates of the wediue-duty truck population were not 

camplete, so tt ese vehicles were lueped with heavv-duty gasoline trucks. 

Since eoission factors for sedivaE-duty trucks can be significantly lower 

than those for heavy-duty trucks (see Tabie 8). the refined cate9ory 

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57 
definition had the effect of reducing the contribution of this category 

to the total link emissions inventory. 

~Link S e~eds~. Carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions decrease 

withncr ~ — eas vehicle speed; nitrogen oxide emissions increase with 

vehicle speed. The method for computing link emissions takes this i.nto 

account by using specified link speeds provided by the MTC travel model, 

which also produces link trip data. Link speeds can be obtained by a 

variety of inethods. The MTC travel model provides estimates of average 

link speed and congested link speed. The computer program which is used 

to estimate link emissions (BAPOLLUT) can also provide estimates of link 

speed based on volume-to-capacity ratios. In the 1979 Plan the 

volume-to-capacity ratio method was used. For the 1982 Plan, speeds 

assigned in the MTC travel simulations were used because it was thought 

that the v/c ratio method might result in some , links being assigned 

artificially low speeds. This would occur particularly during the peak 

hours of travel. 

TABLE 5. 1975 HOT STABILIZED HIGHWAY LINK EMISSIOM 

FACTOR COMPARISON 

(grams/mile @20 mph, averaged over all vehicle types) 

CO HC (Org.) NO x SOx PART 

1979 Plan 42.30 4.51 3.52 0.17 0.52 

1982 Plan 43.5 4.35 2.43 0.12 0.46 

Emissions From Natural Vegetation (Biogenic) 

In 1980 ABAG initiated a project with partial support from the 

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to prepare an 

inventory of hydrocarbon emissions from natural vegetation (biogenic). 

The biogenic hydrocarbon emissions inventory was prepared from two 

major data bases: 

o a map of vegetation distribution in the Bay Area compiled 

from satellite data gathered by NASA; 

o a set of emission factors describing biogenic hydrocarbon 

emission rates for all of the land cover (vegetation) 

classes identified in the Region from the NASA data. 

Vegetatton File. The vegetation file was derived from satellite 

imagery of California recorded on August 6, 1916. In order to use these 

data to produce a biogenic hydrocarbon emissions inventory for the Bay 

• Area, ABAG had to first focus in on the Bay Area portion of that data 

file, and then identify vegetation classes from the data. Land cover 

classes in both urban and rural areas were identified and a vegetation 

file of twenty-three land cover classes was produced. The data file was 

then converted into a UTM hectare grid and entered into BASIS, ABAG's 

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