Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Great Lakes Region

March 2016

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - March 2016 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

 Great Lakes Significant Events - for December 2015 - February 2016

Precipitation

Regional Climate Overview - for December 2015 - February 2016

Winter temperatures were much above normal for the Great 

Lakes basin. This resulted in below-normal snowfall for much 

of the basin as well as a delayed start and reduced extent of 

Great Lakes ice cover. El Niño conditions were the driver for 

the unseasonably warm Great Lakes weather this winter.

December was remarkably warm across the entire Great 

Lakes basin, with all U.S. states and the entire province of 

Ontario experiencing the warmest December on record. 

December snowfall was significantly below-normal across the 

basin and the first snow of the season fell late in some places. 

Buffalo, NY recorded its latest date for first measurable 

snowfall on December 18 (breaking the previous record of 

December 3 set in 1899). 

While still above-normal overall, January and February 

temperatures were more variable. For example, locations in 

Ontario experienced record-breaking warmth on February 

3 and just ten days later, many of the same locations 

experienced record-breaking cold (a temperature swing was 

40-46°C (72-83°F) in some locations).

Great Lakes ice cover reached its maximum extent of 34% on February 14, not long after a delayed start in 

late December due to warmer temperatures. Ice cover fluctuated along with the temperatures in January and 

February (see daily graph to right). The uncovered lakes also produced significant lake-effect snow (LES) this 

winter. In mid-January, multiple LES events produced 0.9-1.2 m (3-4 ft) of snow eastward of Lake Ontario and 

0.3-0.6 m (1-2 ft) eastward of Lake Erie. 

Significant atmospheric pressure differences produced very strong winds across the basin on February 19. Peak wind gusts reached 116 km/h 

(72 mph), causing significant damage around Chicago, IL and producing waves of 3-6 m (10-20 ft) on lakes Michigan-Huron and Ontario.

December was record warm 

for the Great Lakes basin, as 

temperatures were more than 5°C 

(9°F) above normal region-wide. 

January temperatures ranged 

from near normal to 4°C (7°F) 

warmer than normal. February 

temperatures ranged from near 

normal to 3°C (5°F) above normal. 

The winter season was 2°C (4°F) to 

5°C (9°F) above normal.

Water level statistics based on 1918-2014. 

Dec. 2015-Feb. 2016 Air Temperature: 

Departure from Normal

Air Temperature

Great Lakes Ice Cover

Ice cover was below the long-term 

average on all basins this winter. 

The largest departures of 30% to 

45% below normal ice cover were 

on Lake Erie. Colder temperatures 

in mid-January caused rapid growth, 

but a warm spell in late January 

and early-February caused quite a 

bit of melting before temperatures 

turned cold again. Ice cover peaked 

on February 14 at 34% but quickly 

began melting after warmer 

temperatures in late February. 

Winter precipitation across the Great 

Lakes basin was near to above normal. 

However, much fell as rain, while 

snowfall was mostly below normal.

December: The upper lake basins were 

wetter than normal, while the Erie 

and Ontario basins were near normal. 

Snowfall was below normal for the 

entire basin. January: Precipitation was 

below normal in the Erie and Ontario 

basins, while other basins had areas 

ranging from below to above normal.

February: Precipitation ranged from 

below normal in the Michigan basin 

to above normal in the Ontario basin. 

Snowfall varied from 25% to more than 

200% of normal. Normals based on 1981-2010.

Temperature normals based on 1981-2010.

Dec-Feb: Percent of Normal (%)

Great Lakes Water Levels

After a winter of generally wet weather and mild temperatures, water 

levels on all the Great Lakes were well above average and higher 

than last year. Lake Ontario ended the quarter 30 cm (11.8 in) above 

average and 50 cm (19.7 in) higher than last year. Lake Erie ended the 

quarter 33 cm (13 in) well above average and 38 cm (15 in) higher than 

last year. Lake Michigan-Huron’s water level was 29 cm (11.4 in) above 

average and the highest end of February since 1998. Lake Superior 

ended the quarter 24 cm (9.4 in) above average and the highest for 

this time of year since 1997.

Ice Cover: Dec. 2015-Feb. 2016

Diff. from Avg. (%)

Long-term average based on 1973-2015.

Total Precipitation

Snowfall
Regional Impacts - for December 2015 - February 2016

Regional Outlook - for April - June 2016 Great Lakes Region Partners

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)

www.ec.gc.ca

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

www.agr.gc.ca 

Midwestern Regional Climate Center

mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Great Lakes Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

www.glerl.noaa.gov

NOAA Great Lakes Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

North Central River Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc

Ohio River Forecast Center

www.weather.gov/ohrfc 

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Office for Coastal Management

http://coast.noaa.gov/

Great Lakes Integrated Sciences & Assessments

www.glisa.umich.edu

US Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District

www.lre.usace.army.mil

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

Contact for NOAA: 

Molly Woloszyn: mollyw@illinois.edu

Samantha Borisoff: samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu

Contact for ECCC: 

greatlakes-grandslacs@ec.gc.ca

enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca

Contact Information

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - March 2016 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

Above-normal temperatures are expected to continue across the Great Lakes basin into 

April-June 2016, according to the seasonal outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center 

(CPC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). The driver for the above-normal 

temperature outlooks are the El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which are 

beginning to weaken. CPC is forecasting below-normal precipitation for most of the U.S. Great 

Lakes basin, with greater chances near Lake Superior and Lake Michigan-Huron. Currently, 

there is no strong signal in the Canadian Great Lakes basin on whether April-June precipitation 

will be above-, near-, or below-normal.

Recreation

Warmer winter temperatures had both 

negative and positive impacts on recreation 

around the Great Lakes. Minimal and/or 

unstable ice resulted in a poor ice fishing 

season, which hurt local fishing supply stores 

and caused dangerous conditions as trucks and 

snowmobilers fell through thin ice. Organizers 

of the U.S. Pond Hockey Championship 

postponed the January tournament by two 

weeks due to ice safety concerns. Ski resorts in 

Pennsylvania and New York opened late and had limited trails due to 

the lack of snowfall and warmer temperatures. On the other hand, the 

golfing and kayaking season were extended well into December, which 

was a positive for local businesses that provide these hobbies.

Public Health

The influenza (flu) season 

got off to a slow start and 

did not peak as high this 

year, partially due to the 

warmer temperatures since 

the virus tends to live longer 

in cold and dry conditions. 

In Canada, there have been 

30 influenza deaths in the 

2015/16 season, compared to 600 deaths in 2014/15 and 300 deaths 

in 2012/13 and 2013/14. The number of reported influenza cases is 

down in Chicago, IL and other areas of the U.S. as well.

Municipal Services

The below-normal snowfall resulted in decreased snow removal costs 

for many Great Lakes municipalities this winter (i.e. less salt, fuel, 

and manpower). Some municipalities have used the saved funds to 

purchase new equipment for upcoming winter seasons. 

Transportation

Several winter weather events impacted transportation around 

the Great Lakes. A mid-February LES event in Lake County, OH 

caused a fatal multi-vehicle accident 

and shutdown a major interstate for 

several hours. The high wind event on 

February 19 cancelled over 160 flights 

at Chicago O’Hare International Airport 

and also caused dangers to highway 

transportation (semi-truck rollovers) and 

commuter train disruptions in Chicago.

Shipping

With less ice cover on the Great Lakes this winter, the St. Lawrence 

Seaway is opening on its regular schedule of March 21, which is a 

welcome change for the shipping industry since the opening was 

delayed the last two years. Also, limited ice will allow ships to move 

more quickly than they would otherwise. 

Lake Level Outlook

Great Lakes water levels typically climb 

in the spring months as temperature and 

runoff increases and evaporation decreases. 

All of the Great Lakes are expected to 

remain above average in the Spring unless 

exceedingly dry conditions are experienced. 

Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Reported number of deaths by influenza season 

in Canada (Public Health Agency of Canada) 

The multi-car accident on 2/11/16 

(Photo: Lake County Sheriff’s Office)

Wildfire Potential

Potential range for water levels for Apr-June 2016 

compared to the long-term average (1918-2015). 

The 2016 

Spring Fire 

Season may 

begin earlier 

than normal 

across portions 

of the Great 

Lakes basin. 

The National 

Interagency 

Fire Center 

and Natural 

Resources Canada is forecasting above-normal 

wildfire potential in the western Great Lakes 

in April 2016, particularly in areas around 

lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron. Increasing 

dryness in these areas is the main reason 

for the increased wildfire potential, as much 

of the eastern U.S. fire activity is based on 

shorter-term precipitation and temperature 

trends. Wildfire potential conditions are 

expected to return to normal in May and June. 

A truck that fell through the 

Lake Superior Ice (Photo: 

J. Pillath/St. Louis County 

Rescue Squad)

The current seasonal temperature and 

precipitation outlooks can be found 

through the Climate Prediction Center and 

Environment and Climate Change Canada.