Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Great Lakes Region

March 2015

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - March 2015 - 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

 Great Lakes Significant Events - for December 2014 - February 2015

Great Lakes Ice Cover

Snowfall

Regional Climate Overview - for December 2014 - February 2015

February brought record-breaking cold conditions to the 

Great Lakes basin and ice cover on the Great Lakes quickly 

responded to the extreme cold. By the end of February, the 

maximum extent of ice cover was 88.8%, which is the first time 

since the late 1970s that Great Lakes ice cover has topped 80% 

in consecutive years (last year’s maximum extent was 92.5%).

The wet conditions that dominated much of the Great Lakes 

region throughout 2014 came to an abrupt end during this 

past quarter. Especially dry and cold conditions in February 

resulted in water levels on all the lakes declining more than 

they normally do that month. This was most notable on Lakes 

Erie and Ontario, where water supplies were near record lows 

in February, and levels of both lakes ended the quarter below 

average. Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron remain well 

above average. 

February’s cold temperatures set many records across the 

basin. February 2015 was the all-time coldest month on record 

for Buffalo, Syracuse, and Rochester, NY. A few stations in Michigan, New York, and Ohio experienced their coldest temperature ever on record 

in February 2015. At the downtown Toronto station, February 2015 was the first month that temperatures remained below the freezing mark 

for the whole month (since records began in 1840). 

Buffalo, Syracuse, and Rochester saw more than double their normal February snowfall, with February ranking among the top five snowiest 

Februarys on record at these sites (it also ranked among the top 20 all-time snowiest months). Snowfall this season has reached 481 cm (189 

in) in Ravenscliffe, ON so far, which is 160 cm (63 in) above normal. Much of this came from enhanced lake-effect snow off Georgian Bay, 

which is located 80 km (50 mi) to the west of Ravenscliffe. While the eastern Great Lakes basin experienced abundant snowfall, the opposite 

was true in the western basin. Snowfall totals were only 25% to 75% of normal in many areas across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

February’s record-cold conditions 

caused rapid ice growth on the 

Great Lakes. By February 28, the 

maximum ice cover extent was 

88.8%, making it the fourth highest 

since 1973 and slightly higher than 

this time last year. Lakes Superior, 

Huron, and Erie were all 95% or 

more ice-covered by the end of 

February. 

Winter was generally 1°C to 

4°C (1.8°F to 7.2°F) colder than 

normal in the Great Lakes region. 

February was extraordinarily 

cold, with temperatures up to 

9°C (16°F) below normal. January 

temperatures ranged from 3°C 

(5.4°F) below normal near Lakes 

Ontario and Erie to 3°C (5.4°F) 

above normal near Lake Superior. 

December was quite warm, with 

temperatures up to 5°C (9°F) above 

normal. 

Water level statistics based on 1918-2013. 

Feb 2015 Temp: Dep. from Normal

Temperature

Great Lakes Water Levels

The especially dry and very cold February caused greater than usual 

seasonal declines on all of the Great Lakes for that month. Despite this, 

Lake Superior water levels ended the quarter 19 cm (7.5 in) above the 

long-term average and the highest this time of year since 1997. Lake 

Michigan-Huron finished the quarter 22 cm (8.7 in) above average 

and 54 cm (21.3 in) higher than this time last year. The dry conditions 

caused Lake Erie to plunge to 5 cm (2 in) below average, the second 

largest February decline on record, and Lake Ontario to drop to 20 

cm (7.9 in) below average by the end of the quarter. Despite heavy 

snowfall in areas of the eastern basin, February precipitation overall 

was less than normal across the basin, and this contributed to the large 

decline in lake levels.

Winter snowfall was below 

normal near the western lakes, 

but above normal near the eastern 

lakes. Most of the region saw 

less than 75% of normal snowfall 

in December. January snowfall 

ranged from 25% of normal to 

175% of normal. February snowfall 

ranged from 25% of normal near 

Lake Superior to more than 200% 

of normal near Lakes Erie and 

Ontario.

Ice Cover: Difference from Avg. (%)

Snowfall normals based on 1981-2010.

Long-term average based on 1973-Feb 2015.

Feb 2015 shown to display greatest anomalies. Temperature normals (1981-2010).

Dec 2014-Feb 2015 Snowfall: 

Percent of Normal (%)

Dec 2014 - 

Feb 2015
Regional Impacts - for December 2014 - February 2015

Regional Outlook - for April - June 2015 Great Lakes Region Partners

Environment Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

www.agr.gc.ca 

Midwestern Regional Climate Center

mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Great Lakes Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

www.glerl.noaa.gov

NOAA Great Lakes Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

North Central River Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc

Ohio River Forecast Center

www.weather.gov/ohrfc 

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Integrated Sciences & Assessments

www.glisa.umich.edu

US Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District

www.lre.usace.army.mil

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

Great Lakes Water Level Dashboard

www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/dashboard/GLHCD.html

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Contact for NOAA: 

Molly Woloszyn: mollyw@illinois.edu

Samantha Borisoff: samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu

Contact for Environment Canada: 

greatlakes-grandslacs@ec.gc.ca

enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - March 2015 - 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

Contact Information

There is no clear signal from Environment Canada (EC) on whether temperature or 

precipitation will be above, near, or below normal in the Canadian Great Lakes basin for the 

April through June time period, reflecting an absence of large-scale climatic driving influences 

for the region during this period. However for the U.S. Great Lakes basin, the Climate 

Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting a greater chance for above normal temperatures and 

below normal precipitation in the western U.S. basin (no clear signal for eastern U.S. basin). 

For April, CPC is calling for greater chances of below normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. 

basin, as well as below normal precipitation in the western U.S. basin. EC is calling for greater 

chances for below normal temperatures in the Canadian basin, and there is no clear signal 

on whether April precipitation will be above, near, or below normal. Current outlooks can be 

found through the Climate Prediction Center and Environment Canada.

Infrastructure

The extreme cold in February was the cause for several water main 

breaks and pipes bursting in homes 

and apartments in areas of the Great 

Lakes basin, leaving roadways, homes, 

apartments, and businesses flooded. In 

mid-February, Toronto, ON reported 48 

water main breaks and more than 1,000 

reports of frozen pipes in homes and 

apartment buildings across the city. Toledo, 

OH has reported 148 water main breaks so 

far in 2015. 

Societal

Toronto media attributed a number of deaths to the extreme cold. In 

mid-January, poor visibility due to high winds and snowfall contributed 

to a 193-car pileup near Battle Creek, MI, which killed one person and 

injured 22 others. 

Shipping

It’s the second straight tough winter for shipping as extensive ice 

cover persists on the Great Lakes. A freighter in Lake Erie spent more 

than two weeks battling through ice for a trip that typically takes two 

days. In addition, the ice cover has delayed the start of the shipping 

season, similar to last year. The Montreal/Lake Ontario Section and 

Welland Canal is now scheduled for April 2 (originally March 27). As of 

now, the U.S. Soo Locks are scheduled to open on time on March 25.

Recreation & Tourism

Unseasonably warm weather in 

Minnesota in December and January, 

along with a lack of snow on state trails, 

essentially shut down the snowmobile 

season in Minnesota this winter. There 

are several businesses located along 

these state trails that are feeling the 

negative effects. On the other hand, 

the cold conditions in February were a good thing for some winter 

activities, like outdoor skating and ice fishing. Tourism was boosted 

near Niagara Falls due to amazing ice formations on the falls. 

Agriculture & Natural Resources

The maple syrup season in southwestern Ontario is off to a slow start 

because of the colder than normal temperatures this winter. Many 

producers are currently waiting for ideal 

weather conditions (freezing overnight 

but above freezing during the day) to start 

tapping trees. In addition, extremely cold 

January and February temperatures in 

the Finger Lakes, NY potentially damaged 

grapevines at wineries in this area. The 

lack of snowfall and overall dry winter in 

northern Minnesota could also make for a 

damaging wildfire season later this year. 

Lake Level Outlook

Water levels typically rise during the spring as 

snow melts, precipitation and runoff increase, and 

evaporation rates are low this time of year. Current 

projections for April through June show above 

average levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, 

and Erie, unless exceedingly dry conditions are 

experienced. Lake Ontario is expected to remain 

below average unless conditions are wet. Outlook from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 

and Environment Canada (April-June 2015) 

Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Ice Cover Outlook

Ice cover on the Great Lakes is naturally variable from year-to-year. 

Typically, maximum ice occurs on Lakes Michigan, Huron, Ontario, 

and Erie in mid-February and in early March on Lake Superior. 

However, the cold temperatures and extensive ice cover currently 

present may delay start of ice breakup by two or three weeks. Also, 

fog may be an issue in the coming months in the Great Lakes region 

as it is going to take longer than normal for the ice to melt. 

Skateable rinks (i.e. blue skaters) in 

February 2015 (RinkWatch.org)

Water main break in the Greater 

Toronto area this winter 

(Jeremy Cohn, Global News, 

@JeremyGlobalTV)

Western Lake Erie ice cover 

on 2/26/15 (Ohio Sea Grant)

Maple sap being transformed to 

syrup (QUOI Media Group - via 

Flickr)