Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Great Lakes Region

December 2016

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - December 2016 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

 Great Lakes Significant Events - for September - November 2016

Precipitation

Regional Climate Overview - for September - November 2016

Fall 2016 was unseasonably warm across the entire Great 

Lakes basin. In the U.S., Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin 

experienced their warmest fall season in 122 years of records, 

while it was the 2nd warmest for Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. 

In Ontario, Toronto, Hamilton, Gore Bay, and Sudbury also 

experienced their warmest fall on record. 

Despite a few noteworthy precipitation events, conditions in 

the Great Lakes were generally dry over the past three months, 

the exception being Lake Superior, where water supplies were 

slightly above average. This was offset by high Lake Superior 

outflows, and dry conditions elsewhere resulted in all lakes 

declining more than average during the fall.

The Windsor area in southwestern Ontario was deluged by a 

significant rainfall event from September 28-30. The Windsor 

airport reported over 110 mm (4.3 in) from the event, while 

volunteer rain gauge reports just north of the airport in 

Tecumseh measured amounts in excess of 190 mm (7.5 in).

Strong gale-force winds raced across the Great Lakes on 

November 19-20. Marquette, Michigan reported gusts of 80-97 km/hr (50-60 mph), resulting in very large waves of over 7 m (24 ft) on the 

southeastern shoreline of Lake Superior. Strong westerly winds over Lake Erie produced a storm surge event, raising the water level by 0.6 m (2 

ft) on the eastern edge by Buffalo, New York and dropping the water level by 0.8 m (2.5 ft) at the western edge by Toledo, Ohio. 

Unseasonably warm lake temperatures contributed to a significant lake-effect snowfall event in the eastern Great Lakes from November 20-

21. The highest storm total of 138.4 cm (54.5 in) was recorded in Oswego County, New York, while numerous areas measured 30.5 cm (12 in) 

or greater. This storm was the greatest 2-day November snowfall on record in Syracuse, New York.

Air Temperature: In September and October, temperatures ranged from 0.5 

to 4°C (1 to 7°F) above normal, with most areas 1 to 3°C (2 to 5°F) above 

normal. November temperatures ranged from 0.5°C (1°F) above normal east 

of Lake Ontario to more than 5°C (9°F) above normal in the western half of 

the Lake Superior basin. With all three months warmer than normal, fall 

temperatures ranged from 1 to 4°C (2 to 7°F) above normal (right).

Water Temperature: The fall season saw average water temperatures that 

were 1.1 to 4.6°C (2 to 8.3°F) above the long-term average (LTA). November 

surface temperatures were particularly warm compared to the LTA (left).

Water level statistics based on 1918-2015. Elevations are in International 

Great Lakes Datum of 1985.

Fall 2016: Dep. from Normal

Temperature

September precipitation ranged from 65% of average in the Lake Ontario 

basin to 123% of average in the Lake Erie basin, with the Great Lakes 

basin at 101% of average. All lakes basins saw near to above-average 

precipitation in October (106% overall) and near- to below-average 

precipitation in November (77% overall). Fall precipitation was near- to 

below-average for the individual basins, with the Great Lakes basin 

receiving 95% of average.

Precipitation 

normals based on 

1981-2010.

Oct. and Nov. 

graphics are shown 

to display the 

precipitation range 

this fall.

Oct. 2016 (A) and Nov. 2016 (B) Precipitation: Percent of Normal (%)

Great Lakes Water Levels

A B

Air temperature normals based on 1981-2010. Water temperature LTA from 1992-2015.

Lake Surface Temperature

Nov. 2016 surface temp (red bars) compared to the to Nov. LTA (blue bars).

Lake

End of Nov. Water Levels Change since 

September 1

2016 

Compared to:

Average Last 

Year 2016 Average

Superior 183.58 m 

(602.3 ft)

+14 cm 

(+5.5 in)

+1 cm 

(+0.4 in)

-12 cm 

(-4.7 in)

-10 cm 

(-3.9 in)

MichiganHuron176.56 m 

(579.3 ft)

+22 cm 

(+8.7 in)

+4 cm 

(+1.6 in)

-24 cm 

(-9.4 in)

-18 cm 

(-7.1 in)

Erie 174.18 m 

(571.5 ft)

+20 cm 

(+7.9 in)

-2 cm 

(-0.8 in)

-27 cm 

(-10.6 in)

-23 cm 

(-9.1 in)

Ontario 74.49 m 

(244.3 ft)

-7 cm 

(-2.8 in)

-4 cm 

(-1.6 in)

-34 cm 

(-13.4 in)

-29 cm 

(-11.4 in)
Regional Impacts - for September - November 2016

Regional Outlook - for January - March 2017 Great Lakes Region Partners

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)

www.ec.gc.ca

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

www.agr.gc.ca 

Midwestern Regional Climate Center

mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Great Lakes Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

www.glerl.noaa.gov

NOAA Great Lakes Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

North Central River Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc

Ohio River Forecast Center

www.weather.gov/ohrfc 

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Office for Coastal Management

http://coast.noaa.gov/

Great Lakes Integrated Sciences & Assessments

www.glisa.umich.edu

US Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District

www.lre.usace.army.mil

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

USDA Midwest Climate Hub

https://www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/midwest

Contact for NOAA: 

Molly Woloszyn: mollyw@illinois.edu

Samantha Borisoff: samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu

Contact for ECCC: 

ec.enviroinfo.ec@canada.ca

Contact Information

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - December 2016 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicts a greater chance for below-normal temperatures 

in the western U.S. Great Lakes basin and above-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. 

basin for the January-March 2017 period. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) 

predicts above-normal temperatures for the entire Canadian basin. Above-normal precipitation 

is favored for a majority of the basin by both CPC and ECCC. With lake surface temperatures 

currently warmer than normal, this could increase the chance for lake-effect snow this winter. 

Also, the CPC predicts that drought conditions in the eastern basin will likely improve.

The current monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found through CPC and ECCC. 

Drought

Drought conditions 

have slightly improved 

from last season in the 

eastern Great Lakes 

basin. Above-normal 

precipitation in October 

helped remove extreme drought in western and 

central New York. However, as of November 30, 

areas remain in moderate to severe drought.

Water Resources

Deficits in groundwater have been reported across the eastern Great 

Lakes basin. In Ontario, the Grand River Conservation Authority has 

been augmenting water flow with water stored in its three major 

reservoirs. Residents near Clarington, Ontario have reported low water 

levels in wells due to drought, with some reporting no running water 

for months. In western and central New York, several waterways and 

well sites had record or near-record low levels through mid-October. 

Agriculture

The warm and relatively dry weather resulted in the harvest season 

being ahead of schedule this year in many locations across the basin. 

However, lower yields of corn and soybeans were reported in western 

New York and northern Ohio due to dry conditions. In the Niagara 

region in Ontario, and along the North Shore of Lake Ontario, hay, 

corn, and soybean crops were negatively impacted in growth and 

development due to low soil moisture and surface water supplies. 

Storm Impacts

The September 28-30 heavy rainfall event 

near Windsor, Ontario resulted in insurable 

loss estimates of just over $100 million 

(CAD), mainly from flooded basements and 

other infrastructure damage. The November 

19-21 lake-effect snow event resulted in 

more than 27,000 power outages in the 

Rochester, New York area, as well as highway closures and accidents.

Water Quality

The 2016 harmful algal bloom (HAB) in Lake Erie was more mild 

than the blooms of 2013-2015, mainly due to 

drier conditions and less runoff (and therefore less 

phosphorus) into the lake. However, bloom biomass 

was more toxic than last year. Even though bloom 

biomass was more toxic, no drinking water advisories 

were issued. This indicates that bloom severity does 

not always equate to increased risk and highlights the 

ability of municipalities along Lake Erie to successfully 

treat incoming water.

Water Levels

Great Lakes water levels are typically at their 

lowest during winter due to higher evaporation 

rates and reduced basin runoff at this time of 

year. Levels on lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, 

and Erie are expected to remain above average, 

but below record highs, unless exceedingly 

dry or wet conditions are experienced. Lake 

Ontario water levels are expected to remain 

near average unless exceedingly dry or wet 

conditions are experienced. 

Temperature & Precipitation

Ice Cover

Potential range for water levels for Jan-Mar 2017 compared to 

the long-term average (1918-2015). 

Winter 2016/17 is favored to have belownormal temperatures in a majority of the 

Great Lakes region. Therefore, NOAA’s Great 

Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory 

is forecasting maximum ice coverage of the 

Great Lakes to be about 64% this winter, 

above the long-term average of 55% (see 

figure for individual lakes). This forecast 

results from the presence of a weak La Niña, 

a neutral North Atlantic Oscillation, and a 

weak Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic 

Multidecadal Oscillation.

North American Drought 

Monitor as of 11/30/16 

(www.drought.gov)

Near Syracuse, NY on 11/21/16 

(Photo: Christina Balla)

The 2015 Lake Erie 

HAB (Photo: OH 

Sea Grant).