U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Circular 1294

Proceedings for a 

Workshop on Deposit Modeling,

Mineral Resource Assessment, and

Their Role in Sustainable Development

Prepared in cooperation with the

Deposit Modeling Program,

International Union of Geological Sciences,

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
Back cover:  Three photographs of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where the workshop was held in 2000.

Top, Sugarloaf Mountain. Middle, Wooden streetcar built in 1896 and originally pulled by donkeys;

the electrified streetcar still runs between downtown Rio de Janeiro and Santa Teresa. Bottom,

View from Pao de Azucar showing workshop location indicated by the arrow and Copacabana

beach in the background. Top and middle photographs by Markus A. Jegerlehner (available

online at http://www.bigfoto.com/sites/galery/riodejan/); bottom photograph by Manfred Leiter. All

photographs are copyrighted and used with permission.

Front cover:  Sugarloaf Mountain at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; same photograph as on the back cover.
Proceedings for a 

Workshop on Deposit Modeling,

Mineral Resource Assessment, and

Their Role in Sustainable Development

Prepared in cooperation with the

Deposit Modeling Program,

International Union of Geological Sciences,

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

Circular 1294

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Proceedings of a workshop that followed the

31st International Geological Congress,

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil,

August 18–19, 2000

Edited by Joseph A. Briskey and Klaus J. Schulz
U.S. Department of the Interior

DIRK KEMPTHORNE, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey

Mark D. Myers, Director

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2007

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Suggested citation:

Briskey, J.A., and Schulz, K.J., eds., 2007, Proceedings for a Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource 

Assessment, and Their Role in Sustainable Development: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1294, 143 p. (Also available 

on CD-ROM and online.)

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Their Role in Sustainable Development (2000 : 

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

Proceedings for a Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Their Role in Sustainable 

Development : proceedings of a workshop that followed the 31st International Geological Congress, Rio de Janeiro, 

Brazil, August 18–19, 2000 / edited by Joseph A. Briskey and Klaus J. Schulz ; prepared in cooperation with the 

Deposit Modeling Program, International Union of Geological Sciences, United Nations Educational, Scientific and 

Cultural Organization.

p. cm. — (U.S. Geological Survey circular ; 1294)

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN 978-1-4113-1127-5 (book) — ISBN 978-1-4113-1128-2 (CD-ROM)

1. Ore deposits—Congresses. 2. Mines and mineral resources—Congresses. 3. Sustainable development—

Congresses. 4. Geology—Congresses. I. Briskey, Joseph A. II. Schulz, K. J. III. United Nations Educational, 

Scientific, and Cultural Organization—Deposit Modeling Program. IV. International Geological Congress (31st : 2000 

: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) V. Title.

TN263.W665 2000

333.8'5—dc22

2007002830

ISBN 978–1–411–31127–5 (Book)

ISBN 978–1–411–31128–2 (CD-ROM)
iii

Preface

The world’s use of nonfuel mineral resources continues to increase to support a growing population 

and increasing standards of living. The ability to meet this increasing demand is affected especially 

by concerns about possible environmental degradation associated with minerals production and by 

competing land uses. What information does the world need to support global minerals development in a 

sustainable way?

Informed planning and decisions concerning sustainability and future mineral resource supply require a 

long-term perspective and an integrated approach to resource, land use, economic, and environmental 

management worldwide. Such perspective and approach require unbiased information on the global 

distribution of identified and especially undiscovered resources, the economic and political factors 

influencing their development, and the potential environmental consequences of their exploitation.

The U.S. Geological Survey and the former Deposit Modeling Program of the International Union of 

Geological Sciences (IUGS) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization 

(UNESCO) sponsored a workshop on “Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Their Role in 

Sustainable Development” at the 31st International Geological Congress (IGC) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on 

August 18–19, 2000. The purpose of the workshop was to review the state-of-the-art in mineral deposit 

modeling and resource assessment and to examine the role of global assessments of nonfuel mineral 

resources in sustainable development.

The workshop addressed questions such as the following: Which of the available mineral deposit models 

and assessment methods are best suited for predicting the locations, deposit types, and amounts of 

undiscovered nonfuel mineral resources remaining in the world? What is the availability of global geologic, 

mineral deposit, and mineral exploration information? How can mineral resource assessments be used to 

address economic and environmental issues? Presentations included overviews of assessment methods 

applied in previous national and other small-scale assessments of large regions and of the resulting 

assessment products and their uses.

Twenty-seven people from Canada, China, Finland, Germany, Japan, Peru, Slovenia, South Africa, United 

States, and Venezuela participated in the 2-day post-Congress workshop. The attendees represented 

academia, government, environmental organizations, and the mining industry.

The workshop agenda, extended abstracts, and participant biographies were published previously in the 

following report:

Briskey, J.A., and Schulz, K.J, eds., 2002, Agenda, extended abstracts, and bibliographies for a 

Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Their Role in Sustainable 

Development—31st International Geological Congress [Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, August 18–19, 

2000]: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 02–423, 85 p. on one CD­–ROM. (Available 

online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2002/of02-423/.)

Joseph A. Briskey and Klaus J. Schulz

U.S. Geological Survey

954 National Center

12201 Sunrise Valley Drive

Reston, VA 20192–0002, U.S.A.
iv

Conversion Factors and Notes

[Papers in this Circular use a variety of units according to the preferences of the authors. Conversion factors 

are provided below]

Multiply By To obtain

Length

millimeter (mm) 0.03937 inch (in.)

meter (m) 3.281 foot (ft)

kilometer (km) 0.6214 mile (mi)

foot (ft) 0.3048 meter (m)

mile (mi) 1.609 kilometer (km)

Area

hectare (ha) 2.471 acre

hectare (ha) 0.003861 square mile (mi2)

square kilometer (km2) 247.1 acre

square kilometer (km2) 0.3861 square mile (mi2)

acre 0.4047 hectare (ha)

acre 0.004047 square kilometer (km2)

square mile (mi2) 259.0 hectare (ha)

square mile (mi2) 2.590 square kilometer (km2)

Volume

cubic meter (m3) 35.31 cubic foot (ft3)

Mass

milligram (mg) 0.00003527 ounce, avoirdupois (oz)

gram (g) 0.03527 ounce, avoirdupois (oz)

kilogram (kg) 2.205 pound avoirdupois (lb)

megagram (Mg) = metric ton (t) 1.102 ton, short (2,000 lb)

megagram (Mg) = metric ton (t) 0.9842 ton, long (2,240 lb)

metric ton per annum (t/a) 1.102 ton per year (ton/yr)

ounce, avoirdupois (oz) 28.35 gram (g)

pound, avoirdupois (lb) 0.4536 kilogram (kg)

ton, short (2,000 lb) 0.9072 metric ton (t)

ton, long (2,240 lb) 1.016 metric ton (t)

Energy

joule (J) 2.778 × 10-7 kilowatthour (kWh)

gigajoule (GJ) 2.778 × 102 kilowatthour (kWh)

petajoule (PJ) 2.778 × 108 kilowatthour (kWh)

kilowatthour (kWh) 3.600 × 106 joule (J)

Ore grade

gram per metric ton (g/t) 0.032 ounce, avoirdupois, per ton (oz/ton)

The time of a geologic event is expressed as Ma (mega-annum, 106 years ago, 

meaning before A.D. 1950) or Ga (giga-annum, 109 years ago).

In this Circular, “million” is used for 106, “billion” is used for 109, and “trillion” is used 

for 1012.
Volume Contents

Preface

By Joseph A. Briskey and Klaus J. Schulz...............................................................................................iii

Conversion Factors and Notes...................................................................................................................iv

Keynote Address

Global Nonfuel Mineral Resources and Sustainability

By Friedrich-Wilhelm Wellmer and Jens Dieter Becker-Platen........................................................... 1

Uses of a Global Mineral Resource Assessment

The Contributions of Geologic Information to 

Economic, Social, and Environmental Sustainability

By Deborah J. Shields.................................................................................................................................17

Environmental Planning Issues and a Conceptual Global Assessment of 

Undiscovered Nonfuel Mineral Resources

By Joseph A. Briskey, Klaus J. Schulz, John P. Mosesso,

Lief R. Horwitz, and Charles G. Cunningham...........................................................................................19

Who Will Use a Global Mineral Resource Assessment?

An Environmental Perspective

By Penny Flick Langhammer......................................................................................................................29

Minerals, Biodiversity, and Choices

By Charles G. Cunningham, Walter J. Bawiec,Klaus J. Schulz, 

Joseph A. Briskey, James F. Carlin, Jr., and David M. Sutphin ............................................................31

Sustainable Development and Nonrenewable Resources—A Multilateral Perspective

By George A. Nooten...................................................................................................................................35

Mineral Resources Information and Socioeconomic Development

By Gotthard Walser.....................................................................................................................................41

Economics and Environment as Factors of Sustainable Development of 

Siberian Mineral Resources

By N.L. Dobretsov, A.V. Kanygin, and A.E. Kontorovich ........................................................................43

Mineral Supply and Demand into the 21st Century

By Stephen E. Kesler...................................................................................................................................55

Global Mineral Exploration and Production—The Impact of Technology

By Michael D. Doggett................................................................................................................................63
vi

Who Will Use a Global Mineral Resource Assessment?

An Industry Perspective

By G.E. McKelvey.........................................................................................................................................69

Mineral Resource Assessment Methodologies

Deposit Models and Their Application in 

Mineral Resource Assessments

By Donald A. Singer and Vladimir I. Berger............................................................................................71

Estimating Amounts of Undiscovered Mineral Resources

By Donald A. Singer.....................................................................................................................................79

Overview of Methodology of Combined Regional 

Metallogenic and Tectonic Analysis

By Warren J. Nokleberg, Thomas K. Bundtzen, Kenneth M. Dawson,

Roman A. Eremin, Nikolai A. Goryachev, Alexander I. Khanchuk, 

James W.H. Monger, Alexander A. Obolenskiy, Leonid M. Parfenov, 

Vladimir V. Ratkin, Sergey M. Rodionov, and Vladimir I. Shpikerman.................................................85

Data Needs and Availability

Digital Inventory of Bedrock and Mineral Deposit Geology

By Lesley Chorlton, Robert Laramée, David Sinclair, and Elizabeth Hillary.....................................101

Status of Metallogenic Mapping in the World Today—

With Special Reference to the Digital Metallogenic Map of Africa

By Erik Hammerbeck and Milica Veselinovic-Williams ......................................................................115

The Use of Mineral Occurrence and Geologic Databases in

Quantitative Mineral Resource Assessment

By Bruce R. Lipin and Walter J. Bawiec................................................................................................125

Example of Continental-Scale Mineral Resource Assessments

U.S. Geological Survey National Mineral Resource Assessment—

An Estimate of Undiscovered Deposits of 

Gold, Silver, Copper, Lead, and Zinc in the United States

By Klaus J. Schulz and Joseph A. Briskey ............................................................................................131

Author Biographies...................................................................................................................................137
Keynote Address

Global Nonfuel Mineral Resources and Sustainability

By Friedrich-Wilhelm Wellmer1 and Jens Dieter Becker-Platen1

materials for construction and many of the industrial minerals). In Germany, for example, nonmetallic mineral resources 

total about 80 percent of mineral commodities consumed. The 

lifetime curve of nonmetallic resource production in a country 

shows a positive time offset relative to the curve for production 

of metallic resources and attains a maximum when almost all of 

the metal mines in that country have been abandoned (fig. 1). It 

follows that the industrial countries, which are the major importers of mineral resources and thus are customers of the rest of the 

world, must have a vested interest in the sustainable development of mineral resources, not only from a global point of view 

but also in a local context (Wellmer and Becker-Platen, 2001).

Sustainable Development

The Concept of Sustainable Development

Sustainable development is a normative term like liberty 

or equality according to German philosopher Immanuel Kant. 

In the United Nations (U.N.) Report, “Our Common Future,” 

commonly called the “Brundtland Report,” sustainable development is defined as development that meets the needs of the 

present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (Brundtland, 1987, p. 8). This 

has become the most accepted definition internationally. It has 

been expanded by the U.N. Environment Programme, which 

added that the concept also requires the maintenance, rational use, and enhancement of the natural resources base that 

underpins ecological resilience and economic growth and that 

it implies progress toward international equity (United Nations 

Environment Programme, 1989).

The next steps were the Rio Declaration at the U.N. Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 

1992 and Agenda 21, which stress three objectives of sustainable development—(1) to conserve the basic needs of life, (2) 

to enable all people to achieve economic prosperity, and (3) to 

strive toward social justice. All three objectives initially should 

be considered to have the same priority. Whereas the Brundtland definition deals with “intergeneration fairness,” Agenda 

21 adds the element of “intrageneration fairness.”

Introduction

All countries are responsible for safeguarding the 

environment and for maintaining a relatively intact world for 

future generations. This is true not only for the mining and 

mineral exporting countries but also for the industrialized ones 

that buy and import most of their raw materials, especially the 

high-value metals and energy supplies. Together, all countries 

are responsible for working out a global strategy for exploiting 

mineral resources that fulfills the requirements of sustainable 

development.

Highly industrialized countries such as those of Western 

Europe, which import all of their metallic mineral resources 

and most of their energy supplies, still produce a large proportion of their required nonmetallic mineral resources (that is, raw 

1

Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) [Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources] and the Lower Saxony Geological Survey (NLfB), Stilleweg 2, D–30655, Hannover, Germany.

Figure 1. Comparison of the production trends of metallic ores, 

industrial minerals, and aggregates in industrialized countries 

(Wellmer and Lorenz, 1999; modified from Bristow, 1987). Production value

Early

industrial

development

Peak

position of 

mining

industry

Highly industrialized 

phase with peak position 

of secondary industry

Time Nonmetallic minerals (industrial 

minerals, aggregates)

Aggregates alone

Metals
   Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Guidelines for Sustainable Development

The first practical guidelines for sustainable development 

came from the German forestry administration. The man credited with inventing sustainable development is von Carlowitz, 

who published the book “Sylvicultura oeconomica” (von Carlowitz, 1713). He was the head of the mining administration 

of the famous silver mining district around Freiberg, Saxony. 

In this position, he was responsible not only for the mining 

and smelting operations in his district but also for the forestry 

because wood was needed for timbers in the underground 

mines and vast amounts of wood were needed to produce the 

charcoal required to smelt the silver ores. He realized that the 

uncontrolled cutting of the forest for these purposes would 

lead to the collapse of forestry production. He was the first to 

spell out what sustainable development meant in forestry (that 

is, that the amount of wood cut should not exceed the growth 

rate).

Although his rule for renewable resources is quite logical, 

at the beginning of the 18th century, it was difficult for it to 

become broadly accepted. Even today, there is international 

resistance to similar sustainable development initiatives; for 

example, the use of quotas on fish catches to avoid overfishing. The reason for such resistance was and always is that, 

when sustainable development is introduced for a natural 

resource, structural changes must occur in the economy and in 

society. People and interest groups directly affected frequently 

resist these changes.

In contrast to guidelines for the use of renewable 

resources, guidelines for nonrenewable resources are more 

difficult to develop. In 1993, the Enquete Commission on 

Protection of Man and the Environment, set up by the German 

Federal Parliament, formulated four general rules for the sustainable development of natural resources (Enquete-Kommission Schutz des Menschen und der Umwelt, 1993); these rules 

can be applied worldwide. Rules 1 and 2 concern resources, 

and rules 3 and 4 concern the resilience of the environment.

Rule 1. Use of renewable resources.—The rate of consumption of renewable resources should not exceed the 

rate at which they can be regenerated. This rule is the 

same in essence as that already formulated by von Carlowitz (1713).

Rule 2. Use of nonrenewable resources.—The consumption of nonrenewable resources should not exceed the 

amount that can be substituted by functionally equivalent 

renewable resources or by attaining a higher efficiency in 

the use of renewable or nonrenewable resources.

Rule 3. Material and energy input.—Material and energy 

input into the environment should not exceed the capacity 

of the environment to absorb them with minimal detrimental effects.

Rule 4. Rate of anthropogenic input and environmental 

interference.—The rate of anthropogenic input and environmental interference should be measured against the 

•

•

•

•

time required for natural processes to react to and cope 

with the environmental damage.

If one critically examines the various elements of the concept 

of sustainable development as described above, together with 

these four rules for the sustainable development of natural 

resources, there is an apparent contradiction.

The creation of wealth to achieve economic prosperity, as 

outlined above, is one of the three cornerstones of sustainable 

development in the Rio Declaration of 1992. However, there is 

no creation of wealth without the direct or indirect use of nonrenewable resources. Even today, mineral resources are needed 

in our highly industrialized society, wherein creation of wealth 

is based to an ever-increasing degree on information technology. For example, 31 metals are needed to construct a personal 

computer (PC) (Jeffery, 1998). A PC requires electricity to 

function. Electricity is generated and delivered as a part of the 

vast infrastructure required to build and maintain modern societies. An infrastructure in turn requires construction materials 

such as steel and bricks, energy for heating and transport, and 

food produced in abundance by using mineral fertilizers.

Later, we will examine in detail how rule 2 can be 

fulfilled for nonrenewable resources. We interpret rule 2 as 

follows: “The consumption of nonrenewable resources should 

not exceed the amount that can be substituted by functionally 

equivalent resources or replaced in other ways” (Wellmer and 

Becker-Platen, 2002).

Let us consider why we need natural resources. With a 

few notable exceptions, exemplified here by potassium and 

phosphate used as fertilizers in agriculture, it is not the metal 

or raw material as such that is important, but a function that 

can be fulfilled by the material properties of the commodity 

(for example, the electrical conductivity of copper). Other 

commodities, sometimes using a totally different technology, 

also can perform these functions. For example, copper telephone wires are used for transmitting information. These have 

been extensively replaced by fiberglass cable made of silica, 

whose availability on Earth is limitless. Another solution to 

the problem of transmitting information is wireless transmission using directional radio antennae or satellites. Each solution requires different materials.

Mineral Resources as Renewable 

Resources

Metallic and nonmetallic resources normally are considered to be nonrenewable. However, in a few exceptional cases, 

they can be viewed as renewable. An example is diatomite. 

One of the uses of diatomite is as a filter medium for beverages, and one of the places this mineral is exploited is in Lake 

Myvatn, Iceland. Diatoms in the lake metabolize siliceous 

exhalations percolating through the lake and regenerate the 

deposit as they die and settle to the lake bottom. Another 

example is gravel in rivers that are eroding mountains. If 
gravel can be extracted from a riverbed without increasing the 

erosive power of the river, and thus damaging embankments 

or bridges, its extraction meets the sustainable development 

guideline of rule 1 for renewable resources. In this way, about 

5 million metric tons of gravel are produced annually from 

rivers flowing from the Alps into Germany. Nevertheless, 

demand for gravel in southern Germany is substantially higher.

Substances dissolved in seawater also can be considered renewable resources. The prices of sodium, potassium, 

bromine, and magnesium salts, for example, will determine 

when technologies will be developed for commercial extraction of these salts from the ocean. Already, about 16 percent of 

sodium chloride is produced directly from seawater (Wellmer 

and Becker-Platen, 2001).

Mineral Resources as Nonrenewable 

Resources

Most of the mineral resources we consume, of course, are 

nonrenewable. Nonetheless, ways must be found to fulfill the 

Brundtland Report requirement that future generations be able 

“to meet their own needs.” Current annual world consumption 

of mineral and energy resources is about 32×109 metric tons 

(32 billion metric tons), worth about 952 billion euros. Figure 

2 is a bar diagram showing the annual world production of all 

mineral and energy resources by quantity in 1998. Figure 3 is 

the equivalent diagram based on value. In both diagrams, the 

base of the pyramid is formed by sand and gravel, aggregates, 

and energy resources, all of which are required to meet our 

basic needs for housing, heating, and transportation. Most of 

the nonmetallic resources are in the lower half of the quantity 

pyramid, whereas most of the metals are in the upper part 

of the quantity pyramid. Only the following nine metals are 

produced at a rate of more than 1 million metric tons annually: 

iron (Fe), by far the largest, aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn), chromium (Cr), lead (Pb), titanium 

(Ti), and nickel (Ni).

The very top of the quantity pyramid, of course, is made 

up of the precious metals and semiprecious and precious 

stones that together are represented by the most important 

precious stone, diamond. The special and “electronic” metals, 

like gallium, indium, or germanium, also are at the top of the 

quantity pyramid (fig. 4). These metals are the most important 

commodities in our information technology society. They are 

essential for electronic components in measuring and control-engineering technology, which are key technologies for 

increasing the efficiency with which we utilize our resources, 

especially our energy resources. These metals are used annually in tens or hundreds of metric tons and are critical components for the efficient utilization of resources that are used and 

consumed on the order of millions and billions of metric tons.

One can ask whether we can maintain this level of consumption and still fulfill the requirements of sustainable development, particularly in view of the fact that we have consumed 

more resources since World War II than during the whole of 

our long history before that. Figure 5 shows the relative cumulative consumption trends of the “old” metals—gold (Au), tin 

(Sn), copper (Cu), and iron (Fe)—using total consumption 

as of today as 100 percent. Of these four metals, iron is the 

“youngest.” The beginning of its use in the Middle East marks 

the birth of the Iron Age about 3,400 years ago; gold, tin, and 

copper have been used even longer. Figure 5 clearly shows 

that in 1945, at the end of World War II, cumulative consumption of these metals was less than 50 percent of the cumulative 

consumption of 1995, only 50 years later.

Few people realize how much the production and consumption of natural resources have accelerated. The following 

two examples are given to illustrate this trend.

The most intensively researched historical statistics probably are those for gold production (table 1). During the 

nearly 1,000 years from the end of the Roman Empire 

at about A.D. 500 to the discovery of the Americas by 

Columbus in 1492, the estimated total world gold production was about 2,500 metric tons, approximately the same 

as a single year’s production today.

The famous Rammelsberg mine in the Paleozoic Harz 

Mountains in Germany is a polymetallic sedimentaryexhalative-type deposit that was in production for more 

than 1,000 years, from 968 to 1988. For long periods 

of time in the Middle Ages, the mine produced 10,000 

metric tons per annum (t/a). It rarely produced more than 

30,000 t/a, which was equivalent to only 6 weeks’ production at the end of its lifetime. The deposit contained 32 

million metric tons of ore. By using a formula for the 

optimal lifetime of a deposit today (Taylor, 1978), we can 

calculate that the deposit would be exhausted in only 15 

years.

It is tempting to correlate the increase in mineral resource 

production and consumption with the increase in world population, which grew from about 1.6 billion people in 1900 to the 

following milestones: about 2.4 billion in 1950, about 3.2 billion in 1965, and more than 6 billion (6×109

) in October 1999. 

However, the bulk of mineral resource consumption takes 

place in industrialized countries, which have had only a very 

moderate population increase. The large increase in population 

has occurred mainly in the developing nations (fig. 6). This 

uneven consumption pattern, however, offers an opportunity to 

find a solution to the problem of sustaining the future supply 

of mineral resources.

The efficiency of production and utilization of mineral 

raw materials will have to be increased. This improvement 

requires investments in research and development, which 

can be much more easily undertaken in the relatively rich 

industrialized nations than in the relatively poor developing 

nations. Moreover, industrialized nations start much higher on 

the learning curve for efficient use of natural resources than 

do the developing nations. After development by industrial 

nations, more efficient technologies then can be adopted by 

1.

2.

Global Nonfuel Mineral Resources and Sustainablity 
 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

QUANTITY

Industrial minerals

Precious metals and 

gemstones

Fuels

Metals (nonprecious)

Kyanite and Related Materials

Graphite

Electronic Metals

Columbium

Aluminum

Titanium

Bentonite

Manganese

Talc and Pyrophyllite

Diatomite

Lead

Feldspar

Asbestos

Peat

Gypsum, Anhydrite

Chromium

Magnesium

Uranium

Magnesite

Vanadium

Tin

Molybdenum

Cobalt

Boron

Silver

Fluorspar

Sulfur

Nickel

Zinc

Rock Salt

Phosphate

Potash

Platinum-Group Metals

Kaolin

Diamonds

Industrial Sand

Clay

Copper

Iron

Gold

Aggregates

Lignite

Sand and Gravel

Coal

Natural Gas

Petroleum

Mica

3.2

16

24

26

32

35

45

206

118

135

209

431

401

0.02

0.35

2.5

456

648

773

2,060

7,470

7,870

8,790

8,800

20,100

12,200

9,610

25,300

26,900

27,400

36,600

44,800

55,600

103,700

191,100

300,000

500,000

562,000

848,000

2,357,000

3,578,000

3,735,000

4,100,000

>15,000,000

1,970

1,100

3,040

2,770

4,810

5,890

4,180

Barite

Zirconium

Antimony

Tungsten

Figure 2. World primary production of mineral and energy resources in 1998 by quantity (Kippenberger, 2001). Ores are given as metal 

equivalent in thousands of metric tons; natural gas, in millions of cubic meters. The label “Diamonds” represents all precious and 

semiprecious gemstones. Electronic metals include gallium, indium, and germanium. Details about the top of the pyramid are in figure 4.
Figure 3. World primary production of mineral and energy resources in 1998 by value (Kippenberger, 2001). Values are given in millions 

of euros. Commodities are the same as in figure 2.

Kyanite and Related Materials

Industrial minerals

VALUE

Precious metals and 

gemstones

Fuels

Metals (nonprecious)

Graphite

Electronic Metals

Columbium

Aluminum

Titanium

Bentonite

Manganese

Talc and Pyrophyllite

Diatomite

Lead

Fluorspar

Asbestos

Peat

Gypsum, Anhydrite

Chromium

Magnesium

Uranium

Magnesite

Vanadium

Tin

Molybdenum

Cobalt

Boron

Silver

Feldspar

Sulfur

Nickel

Zinc

Rock Salt

Phosphate

Potash

Platinum-Group Metals

Kaolin

Diamonds

Industrial Sand

Clay

Copper

Iron

Gold

Aggregates

Lignite

Sand and Gravel

Coal

Natural Gas

Petroleum

Mica

64

69

120

130

146

158

194

200

237

336

345

388

391

439

440

556

576

618

659

689

727

821

862

864

882

918

926

1,550

1,590

1,610

1,820

1,890

2,930

3,030

3,140

3,510

3,760

3,950

3,960

4,910

9,500

9,800

15,200

20,900

23,100

30,300

97,000

122,000

161,000

412,000

1,040

Barite

Zirconium

Antimony

Tungsten

Global Nonfuel Mineral Resources and Sustainablity 
 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Platinum-Group Metals (302 t)

Beryllium (286 t)

Indium (230 t)

Gallium (60 t)

Germanium (56 t)

Rhenium (37 t)

Diamonds (30 t)

Scandium (100 kg)

Tantalum (412 t)

Selenium (2,071 t)

Gold (2,479 t)

Figure 4. A modified expansion of the top of the quantity 

pyramid from figure 2, showing the precious metals, precious and 

semiprecious stones (designated by “Diamonds”), and electronic 

metals (including gallium, indium, and germanium) (Kippenberger, 

2001). Quantities are in metric tons (t) and kilograms (kg). Cumulative historic amounts produced up to 1945

50%

Au

Sn

Fe ore

Cu

CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION, IN PERCENT

100

80

60

40

20

1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 1990 2000

YEAR

Figure 5. Cumulative world production of iron (Fe) ore, gold 

(Au), copper (Cu), and tin (Sn) (Wellmer and Becker-Platen, 2001; 

courtesy of Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems Publishers, 

Oxford, United Kingdom).

Population

DEVELOPED

REGIONS

UNDERDEVELOPED

REGIONS

1950

1990

1950

1990

1950

1990

1950

1990

1950

1990

1950

1990

1950

1990

Al

2/19

Cu

4/19

Zn

3/25

Pb

5/18

Ni

1/13

Steel

5/25

%

%

80

68 77

32 23 98 81 96 81 97 75 95 82 99 87 95 75

80

100

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

Figure 6. Distribution in percent of world population and metal 

consumption between the underdeveloped and developed regions 

in 1950 and 1990. Data for developed regions from Wellmer and 

Becker-Platen, 2001; courtesy of Encyclopedia of Life Support 

Systems Publishers, Oxford, United Kingdom. Al, aluminum; Cu, 

copper; Zn, zinc; Pb, lead; Ni, nickel.

Table 1. World gold production.

[From Wellmer and Becker-Platen, 2001; courtesy of Encyclopedia of Life 

Support Systems Publishers, Oxford, United Kingdom]

Period

Production,

in metric 

tons

3900 B.C. – A.D. 500 (end of Roman Empire), 

4,400 years

10,257

500 – 1492 (discovery of America), 992 years 1492 (discovery of America), 992 years 2,472

1493 – 1999, 507 years 1999, 507 years 125,059

Total: 5,899 years 137,778

1999, 1 year 2,514

the developing nations to meet the natural resources needs of 

their growing populations. Such development and application 

of technology allow us to extend the three-cornerstone concept 

in the Rio Declaration of 1992 to a four-cornerstone concept 

by adding the need for research and technology to achieve a 

higher efficiency in the use of natural resources (fig. 7). In the 

long run, including research and technology is the only possibility for achieving sustainable development globally.

The Future Availability of Resources

Lifetime of Reserves

The future availability of resources commonly is estimated 

by using the concept of “reserves lifetime,” which is defined as 

the known reserves divided by current annual consumption. In 

practice, however, reserves lifetime is a completely inappropriate measure of future availability. This estimate is influenced by 

many factors, such as type of deposit, distribution of reserves 

according to deposit size, costs, price level, intensity of exploration, and development of technology. The reserves lifetime is 

nothing more than a statistical snapshot of a dynamic system that 

says much more about the need for innovation than about true 

future availability. Commodities that occur in extensive seams, 

such as potash or coal, and that cover considerable areas in some 

deposits typically have lifetimes of more than 150 years because 

it is much easier to calculate and extrapolate reserves for such 

commodities than for those occurring in more local discontinuous concentrations. Typical representatives of the commodities 

having localized concentrations are lead and zinc, which have 
lifetimes of only 20 to 25 years. The lifetimes for lead and zinc, 

however, have remained the same since 1950, despite an increase 

in production from 1.7 million metric tons of lead and 2.2 million 

metric tons of zinc in 1950 to 3.0 million metric tons of lead and 

8.0 million metric tons of zinc in 1999. The stability of these 

lifetimes means that a dynamic balance between consumption 

and the discovery of new reserves of these two metals has been 

maintained for the last 50 years. Obviously, a far larger and more 

constant effort is needed to keep a dynamic balance for commodities with short lifetimes than for those with very long lifetimes 

(Wellmer and Becker-Platen, 2001). Thus, reserves lifetime 

figures can be interpreted as indicators of the need for innovation 

and of the available time buffer during which functionally equivalent substitutes for scarce resources must be found in accordance 

with rule 2 of the Enquete Commission.

With this understanding of the reserves lifetime concept, 

let us take a look at mineral fertilizers. Generally, we need only 

the functions of natural resources, not the natural resources as 

such. Among the exceptions to this statement are potassium 

(potash) and phosphorus (phosphate). Both are essential plant 

nutrients. Like water, they have no substitutes. In this respect, 

potassium and phosphorus must be considered among the most 

critical commodities. Fortunately, their reserves lifetimes are 

quite high—81 years for phosphorus and 329 years for potassium—giving humanity a substantial time buffer to find sustainable solutions. Moreover, the ultimate source of potassium is 

seawater, which is practically a renewable resource. Although 

it is more difficult to develop a comparable concept for sustainability of phosphorus, future options to do so are likely to 

include improved fertilizing technology, precision farming, and 

improved recycling of wastes such as manure.

Supply and Demand Cycle of Mineral 

Resources

If one wants to understand the future supply of mineral 

resources, one must consider their supply and demand cycle. 

This cycle is driven primarily by the price of the commodity, although it should be noted that other aspects, such as 

increased environmental awareness and concern, are playing 

an increasingly important role. It also is essential to consider 

these cycles in connection with one further resource—human 

creativity. Discovery of new reserves may be viewed as only a 

temporary possible solution to mineral resource sustainability. 

Under rule 2 of the Enquete Commission, a number of other 

potential solutions to sustainability of nonrenewable resources 

are emphasized and rely on human creativity. Examples for 

mineral resources include (1) enhancing recovery from the 

mineral deposit, (2) finding new substitutes, (3) improving 

recycling, (4) reducing consumption by more efficient utilization, and (5) finding totally new solutions (such as the new 

technologies that allow transmitting information over fiberglass cables instead of copper wire or by wireless transmission 

Figure 7. The three-cornerstone concept of the 1992 Rio Declaration (economy, ecology, and social justice) extended to a fourcornerstone concept that includes research and technology to achieve sustainable development globally.

ECONOMY

to enable all people to achieve 

economic prosperity

SOCIAL JUSTICE

to strive toward 

social justice

ECOLOGY

to conserve the basic 

needs of life

RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY

to achieve the three-cornerstone concept 

of the Rio Declaration 1992

The three-cornerstone 

concept of the

Rio Declaration 1992

Amendment

Global Nonfuel Mineral Resources and Sustainablity   
 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

using satellites). Some of these examples are described in 

more detail below.

Enhancing recovery.—In a worldwide materials-flow 

study, Kippenberger (2001) examined the recovery rates for 

mining, beneficiating, and smelting eight mineral and energy 

commodities: iron, aluminum, copper, nickel, chromium, 

manganese, phosphate, and coal. His results (summarized in 

table 2) show that total recoveries of these commodities from 

mining to smelting are well below 100 percent, indicating that 

significant improvements in utilization efficiency are possible 

in the future.

Finding new substitutes.—The effect of rising prices as 

a driving force on finding new solutions to mineral resource 

sustainability is well demonstrated by the cobalt supply shortage 

resulting from the political Shaba crisis in Zaire in 1978. This 

crisis caused the price of cobalt to skyrocket. Zaire, now the 

Democratic Republic of Congo, is the world’s largest cobalt 

producer. In 1976, the German Government commissioned 

a study to analyze what effect a shortfall of 30 percent of a 

commodity would have on industry. For chromium and cobalt, 

which were considered very difficult to replace with substitutes, 

it was found that about 6 million jobs would be affected. However, this study totally underestimated the flexibility of industry 

to react to drastic price rises. Shortly after the price rise, new 

substitutes (ferrites) were invented, replacing cobalt in permanent magnets and thereby totally changing the consumption 

pattern for cobalt (Wellmer and Becker-Platen, 2001).

Improving recycling.—What is the aim of recycling? Is it 

to make maximum use of the secondary material per se, or is 

it to minimize environmental impact (for example, by reducing energy input and thus CO2 emissions)? Most people would 

agree that it should be the latter. Consequently, the optimum 

solution may not be to recycle 100 percent of the secondary 

raw material (Wellmer and Becker-Platen, 2001). Take aluminum as an example. The results of an investigation by Alkan 

and others (1999) to find the optimum rate for recycling aluminum used in packaging are shown in figure 8. The optimum 

in this case is 90 percent, definitely not 100 percent.

A potential material for metal recycling can be classified 

according to whether the metal it contains is concentrated or is 

dilute and highly disseminated. Recycling of relatively concentrated secondary metals requires less energy than does the smelting of their primary ores or concentrates. Recycled aluminum, for 

example, requires only 5 percent of the energy needed to produce 

primary aluminum; for copper, the figure is 20 percent; for lead, 

50 percent. Lead in car batteries is an example of a concentrated 

metal that is easily recyclable. The high concentration of lead in 

these batteries, combined with their relatively short lifetime, is the 

Figure 8. Primary energy requirement for producing aluminum as 

a function of the recycling rate for aluminum in packaging material 

(modified from Alkan and others, 1999; courtesy of Encyclopedia of 

Life Support Systems Publishers, Oxford, United Kingdom).

Point based on results 

of model calculations 

and industrial data

PRIMARY ENERGY REQUIREMENT, IN

GIGAJOULES PER METRIC TON OF ALUMINUM

ALUMINUM RECYCLING RATE, IN PERCENT

300

200

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

Table 2. Recovery rates during mining, beneficiation, smelting, and refining of aluminum, 

chromium, iron, copper, manganese, nickel, phosphate, and hard coal.

[Modified from Kippenberger, 2001]

Commodity Percent of world production 

included in this survey

Total recovery, 

in percent

Share of underground 

mines, in percent

Aluminum Mines 79 87 0

Smelters/refineries 96

Chromium Mines 77 65 70

Smelters/refineries ~100

Iron Mines 65 77 4

Smelters/refineries 90

Copper Mines

(Relative to capacity)

~75 71 35

(estimated)

Smelters/refineries ~94

Manganese Mines 51 47 30

Smelters/refineries ~97

Nickel Mines 70 76 53

Smelters/refineries 70

Phosphate Mines 61 64 3

Hard coal Mines 91 77 75
reason why lead in car batteries has a recycling rate of more than 

50 percent. In contrast, zinc in skin cream and titanium in paint 

are at the other end of the concentration scale. No one would ever 

think of trying to recover metals from these products. The more 

disseminated a metal is in the secondary raw material, the more 

energy required to purify it.

Applying a Natural Resources Hierarchy to 

Sustainable Development

Substitution of one raw material for another, such as plastics 

or concrete for metals, occurs constantly in industry and is 

driven by economics. However, substitution also can be driven 

by efforts to promote sustainable development. One way to do 

this is through consideration of a hierarchy of relative mineral 

resource values like that illustrated in figure 9. The top of the 

hierarchy is occupied by the most valuable resources (that is, the 

energy resources represented in fig. 9 by fossil fuels). The next 

lower value category consists of those mineral resources whose 

deposits are created by natural enrichment (for example, metalliferous deposits and some nonmetallic deposits like phosphate 

and barite). The next lower level consists of bulk raw materials 

such as those used in construction and those whose availability 

from the geological point of view is unlimited in the Earth’s crust. 

Also included are materials such as magnesium and potassium, 

which are present in practically unlimited quantities in the oceans 

and may be considered essentially as renewable resources. At the 

base of the hierarchy are the waste products and residues from 

beneficiation or burning of higher value resources. An example is 

ash from coal-fired powerplants, which can be used for making 

cement, thereby replacing primary cement raw materials. Lower 

value resources should always substitute for higher value ones.

Whenever possible, the aim of mineral policy in the 

sense of sustainable development must be to utilize low-value 

resources at the base of the mineral resources hierarchy in order 

to conserve high-value resources at the top. An example of how 

this may be achieved is through a materials-flow law like Germany’s Waste Avoidance, Recovery and Disposal Act, which 

penalizes waste disposal. This law promotes maximum utilization of waste products and minimum disposal of waste. Other 

measures include regional planning that permits unimpeded 

access to bulk mineral resources, in combination with laws 

encouraging environmentally compatible mineral extraction. 

The application of the mineral resources hierarchy to sustainable development is illustrated by the following two examples.

Triple-pane window glass is mandatory in Sweden. 

When the resulting energy savings for heating a house 

exceeds the amount of energy required to manufacture the 

triple-pane glass for the windows, then the energy balance is positive. Thus, raw materials that are lower in the 

resources hierarchy (sand, limestone, dolomite, and soda 

ash) replace energy resources at the top (fig. 9).

A new high-speed railway system under construction 

in Europe is required to follow the most direct routes 

possible between cities. Consequently, many tunnels and 

bridges are being built. Tunnels make up 34 percent and 

bridges make up 12 percent of the northern half of the 

new railway line between Hannover in northern Germany 

and Munich in southern Germany (Geissler and others, 1982). Primarily, the new railway system improves 

traveltime, but it also represents a massive investment in 

bulk construction materials and steel to improve energy 

efficiency.

Indicators of efficiency in the utilization of natural 

resources have been developed in various countries because, 

as the consideration of the mineral resources hierarchy above 

illustrates, it is not helpful to consider natural resources as 

equivalent entities (for example, making 1 metric ton of an 

energy resource equivalent to 1 metric ton of a metal or 1 metric 

ton of a bulk material). Rather, it is more helpful to measure 

the efficiency of utilization of the resources at the top of the 

hierarchy by measuring the intensity of their use. For the energy 

resources, the intensity of use is measured by the ratio of a 

unit of energy consumed to a unit of gross national product, or 

vice versa. Figure 10 shows how energy efficiency in Germany 

improved from 1990 to 1996 in the context of the nation’s goal 

to double energy production by 2020 (Bundesministerium für 

Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit, 1998).

The Importance of Learning

Learning is a process that normally follows a sigmoidal 

curve. At the beginning, the learning curve is almost flat; that 

is, the start is difficult; then the curve steepens, and finally 

1.

2.

Figure 9. Hierarchy of mineral resources for managing 

sustainable development (Wellmer and Becker-Platen, 1999; 

courtesy of Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems Publishers, 

Oxford, United Kingdom). Resource values increase upward.

Fossil fuels

Mineral deposits formed by 

enrichment processes (for 

example, metalliferous deposits)

Bulk raw materials

Waste products and residues as 

potential raw materials

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Substitution

Processing wastes and residues

Global Nonfuel Mineral Resources and Sustainablity   
10 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

600 MW

“Refitting”

of existing 

powerplants

600 MW after 

“refitting”

800 MW 

Schwarze Pumpe

950 MW 

Niederaußem

930 MW 

Lippendorf

950 MW powerplant with 

optimized technology

50

45

40

35

1974 1976 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

EFFICIENCY, IN PERCENT

YEAR

Figure 11. Increase in the efficiency of generating electricity in German lignite-fired powerplants; information from DEBRIV (Deutscher 

Braunkohlen-Industrie-Verein e.V.; German Association for the Lignite Industry). MW, megawatt.

Figure 10. Development of energy efficiency in Germany (modified from Bundesministerium für Umwelt, 

Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit, 1998). Measured in millions of Deutsche Marks (DM) gross national product 

per petajoule (PJ) consumed.

1990

100

200

300

400

0

1993 1996 2000

YEAR

2005 2010 2015 2020

ENERGY EFFICIENCY, IN MILLIONS OF 

DEUTSCHE MARKS PER PETAJOULE CONSUMED

188 208

377

Aim (1990–2020): To double energy productivity

it flattens again when a saturation stage is reached and the 

rate of learning declines. All of the examples cited above of 

methods for replacing nonrenewable resources by functionally 

equivalent resources or achieving higher efficiencies in using 

mineral resources as required by rule 2 of the Enquete Commission can be shown to follow such a learning curve. On the 

other hand, experience shows that learning curves may start 

anew with a technological breakthrough or radical innovation. 

This circumstance is exemplified by a learning curve based on 

the efficiency of generating electricity with lignite as fuel in 

German powerplants (fig. 11).

Learning is critical for improving the efficiency of 

production and utilization of our natural resources. In figure 

6, it was shown that the bulk of natural resource consumption is occurring in the industrialized nations. This group of 

countries has gone through a learning curve, becoming more 

and more efficient in using natural resources. This occurrence 

is illustrated for copper consumption in figure 12. The growth 
rate shown in figure 12B generally decreased from the end of 

World War I to the middle of the 1980s. Since that time, the 

growth rate for copper consumption has flattened out in the 

industrialized nations. However, the growth rates in world 

consumption are increasing again because of high growth 

rates in takeoff and developing nations like China (Wellmer 

and Wagner, 2000). The consequence is that we shall see the 

development of a new learning curve in the countries with 

high growth rates today.

It has been argued that takeoff and developing nations 

take over more efficient technologies immediately and skip 

less efficient intermediate steps. This certainly is true for 

selected technologies; for national economies as a whole, 

however, this development has not been observed so far (for 

example, steel consumption, as shown in fig. 13).

Figure 13A shows the intensity-of-use (IOU) factors 

for steel for a selected group of developing, takeoff (newly 

industrialized), and industrialized nations. A bell-shaped curve 

can be clearly seen in the plot of kilograms of iron consumption per $1,000 gross national product versus gross national 

product per capita. The intensity-of-use factors rise within 

the group of developing nations, reach a peak in the group of 

takeoff nations, and decline toward the group of industrialized 

nations. This curve results mainly because of the in­creasing 

importance of the tertiary service sector but also because of 

learning effects. If the theory that takeoff and developing 

nations skip stages in favor of more efficient natural resource 

utilization were true for entire national economies, a flattening of this bell-shaped curve as shown in figure 13B would be 

expected. What we observe, however, is the opposite trend. 

Figure 13C shows the intensity-of-use factors for two time 

slices—1985 and 1995. It can be clearly seen that the bellshaped curve has a more pronounced peak in 1995 than in 

1985. This difference obviously means that the growth of the 

developing nations and takeoff nations is based on more rather 

than fewer natural resources.

The three-cornerstone concept for sustainable development in the 1992 Rio Declaration was extended herein to a 

four-cornerstone concept by adding research and technology 

(fig. 7) to improve efficiency in the use of natural resources. 

Figure 13 illustrates overall the need for increased efforts in 

this field in order to reverse the trend shown in figure 13C.

To increase the efficiency of entire national economies 

with respect to the utilization of natural resources, one must 

take into account that each economic system has to advance 

through its own stages of learning. In the metallurgical field, 

industrialized nations have advanced to a relatively efficient 

stage that optimizes energy input (Wellmer and Becker-Platen, 

2001). The present situation in industrialized countries, however, is the result of many learning steps, which proceeded 

through stages that were inefficient and certainly not sustainable by today’s standards. A good example is the use of charcoal for smelting, which led to excessive cutting of timber and 

the formulation of the first rule for sustainable development by 

von Carlowitz (1713).

Developing nations, of course, will not go through these 

same stages again but, for a variety of reasons, will have to 

start on a lower part of the learning curve before reaching 

a high degree of resource efficiency. As an example, many 

smelters produce not only metals but also residues like slag 

and sulfuric acid. In industrialized nations today, all residues 

can be used in most cases in other industrial sectors (for example, slag in the construction industry; sulfuric acid in many 

chemical processes). The result is that residues at the base 

of the natural resources hierarchy of figure 9 are used again, 

thereby replacing primary higher value resources. However, 

such reuse of residues requires a developed chemical industry, 

which a developing nation generally does not have when it 

starts to industrialize by using its own natural resources.

The Sink Problem of Natural Resources 

and the Resilience of the Environment

So far we have dealt only with rules 1 and 2 of the 

Enquete Commission. We also have to consider rules 3 and 4, 

which address the resilience of the environment.

Per the maxim, “He who mines must dig,” digging is 

unavoidable, even though it has an environmental impact. In a 

recent study by Neumann-Mahlkau (1997), it was shown that 

anthropogenic mass movements have reached the same order 

of magnitude as geogenic mass movements: about 35 billion 

cubic meters per annum (m3/a) compared to about 37 billion 

m3/a. Fortunately, humanity has learned much over the past 30 

years about reducing the environmental effects of mining. Good 

mining practices always use the best available technology that 

also takes into account inescapable economic considerations. 

Such practices sometimes are labeled “BATNEEC”; that is, best 

available technology not entailing excessive costs. Implementing BATNEEC means increasing limits on the quantity of water 

and reagents reaching the environment from the beneficiation of 

ores and implementing strict regulations about restoring mine 

sites. It also involves minimizing the land area used for mining. 

For example, it has been calculated that only about 0.01 percent 

per year of the land area of Germany is used for exploiting 

natural resources (Gwosdz and Lorenz, 2000). Moreover, this 

percentage must have a bias toward higher land usage than in 

other equivalent industrialized countries because Germany is 

the world’s largest lignite producer, having very large open pits. 

Germany also is a significant peat producer, for which relatively 

large production areas are required, as well. Nonetheless, all 

land used for mining and quarrying today is used only intermittently in most industrialized nations; such land areas are “borrowed.” In Germany, for example, all such land must be restored 

for industrial, agricultural, forestry, or recreational purposes or 

as a nature reserve (re­naturation).

Accidents, especially those involving tailings dam failures, have caused considerable damage to the environment 

and, in the past, led to widespread public criticism of the mining industry. Although environmental damage should not be 

Global Nonfuel Mineral Resources and Sustainablity 11
12 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Figure 12. Worldwide copper consumption and growth rates from 1900 to 1998 (Wellmer and Wagner, 2000). A, Annual 

worldwide copper consumption. B, Growth rates of worldwide copper consumption where 5-year mean values are 

calculated relative to the previous 5-year period.

12

8

4

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1998

YEAR

METAL CONTENT, IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS

Trendline

Annual consumption

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1998

20%

10%

15%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

GROWTH RATE

YEAR

A

B
GNP PER CAPITA, IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

Fe CONSUMPTION, IN KILOGRAMS PER US$1,000 OF GNP

20 40 60 80 100 120

10

15

5

0

0

20

25

35

30

Philippines

Peru Morocco

Turkey

Jordan

Newly industrialized 

countries

Developing

countries

Industrialized

countries

Taiwan

Malaysia

Korea

Singapore

Japan

USA

Germany

Norway

Fe consumption in 1985

Malaysia

GNP PER CAPITA, IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS

Fe CONSUMPTION, IN KILOGRAMS PER US$1,000 OF GNP

20 40 60 80 100 120

10

15

5

0

0

20

25

35

30

Newly industrialized 

countries

Developing countries

Industrialized

countries Possible IOU curve for steel 

after technology transfer

IOU curve for steel without 

technology transfer

Figure 13. Intensity-of-use (IOU) factors for steel (in 1990 U.S. 

dollars) for three situations for selected countries (Wellmer and 

Wagner, 2000). A, IOU factors for steel in 1985. Dashed lines 

enclose groups of countries as labeled. B, Possible development 

of IOU curve for steel after successful transfer of technology 

(dashed line); this hypothetical curve is not observed as shown in 

figure 13C. C, Comparison of IOU factors for steel in 1985 and 1995. 

Fe, iron; GNP, gross national product.

A

B

C

played down, it must be pointed out that geotechnical methods 

are available for proper construction and safe management of 

tailings dams. It is a matter of good management and mining 

practices to enforce strict quality control down the chain of 

command of mining companies. Many companies increasingly 

are developing and applying rigorous standardized codes of 

conduct to their operations worldwide. Examples of national 

and international codes of conduct are those of the (1) Mineral 

Council of Australia, (2) International Council on Metals and 

the Environment (ICME), and (3) World Bank Guidelines for 

Health, Safety and Environment. ICME is based in Ottawa, 

Canada. Its members are major international metal mining and 

smelting companies.

Rules 3 and 4 of the Enquete Commission state that the 

amount and rate of material and energy input into the environment should not exceed the capacity for their absorption with 

minimum detrimental effects. In the context of these rules, the 

problem of soils acting as a sink for anthropogenic substances 

must be examined. We have to realize that man’s ac­tivities 

have considerably increased anthropogenic heavy-metal 

concentrations in the soil in and around urban and industrial 

areas. An example from the Berlin area in Germany is shown 

in figure 14. Another example is the correlation between the 

increase of lead in human bones and the increased historical 

use of lead by humans shown in table 3 (Friege and others, 

1985).

Continued and increased efforts must be made to 

devise improved methods for reducing emissions, thereby 

protecting our soil so that its capacity to function as a sink 

Figure 14. Contents (median values) of selected heavy metals 

in topsoil in urban Berlin and surrounding rural areas (modified 

from Birke and Rauch, 1997; courtesy of Encyclopedia of Life 

Support Systems Publishers, Oxford, United Kingdom). n, number 

of samples; As, arsenic; Cu, copper; Cr, chromium; Ni, nickel; Pb, 

lead; Zn, zinc. MEDIAN CONTENT, IN MILLIGRAMS OF HEAVY METALS PER KILOGRAM OF TOPSOIL

150

125

100

75

50

25

As Cu Cr Ni Pb Zn 0

Urban areas (n = 1,697)

Agricultural areas (n = 270)

Woodland areas (n = 424)

Global Nonfuel Mineral Resources and Sustainablity 13
14  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Figure 15. Comparison of population and worldwide land resources in 1990 and 2010 (Wellmer and 

Becker-Platen, 1999).

Population

(in billions)

Forested

areas

(in billions 

of hectares)

Pasture and 

grassland

(in billions 

of hectares)

Cropland

(in billions 

of hectares)

Irrigated

land

(in billions 

of hectares)

7.03

3.2 3.5

0.28

1.5

5.3

3.4 3.4

0.24

1.4

2010

1990

+33%

–7%

–20%

per capita 

change

+4%

–22%

per capita 

change

+5%

–21%

per capita 

change

+17%

–12%

per capita 

change

for pollutants is not diminished. Significant advances have 

been made in industrialized countries in the last decade. For 

example, a recent study by Thomas and others (1999) demonstrated that the phasing out of lead in petrol (gasoline) 

has led to a considerable reduction of lead concentrations 

in the environment. In addition, a recent study by the U.S. 

Geological Survey has shown that lead concentrations in 

sediments declined as much as 70 percent since the 1970s 

and 1980s (U.S. Geological Survey, 1998; Callender and 

Rice, 2000).

Concluding Remarks

The process of continually finding new solutions for 

the replacement of our nonrenewable resources is governed by the prices of these commodities and, for mineral 

resources, is affected by the cycle of supply and demand 

and the effects of learning. In the opinion of the authors, 

this process so far has worked in our market economy to 

provide a dynamic balance between resources supply and 

demand. There is no reason to believe that the process will 

not continue to function in the future. Concerning the environmental aspects and the sink issue, one can be optimistic 

that improved technologies will find the necessary solutions.

A more pressing problem for humanity lies in another 

area—food for an ever-increasing population. Freshwater and 

soil are needed for growing food. In many arid and semiarid 

Table 3. Lead content in human bones.

[From Friege and others, 1985]

Origin of the bones Date Lead 

content1

Reason for lead 

content

Inca in Peru A.D. 500–

1000

0.55 No lead used.

Teutones in Bavaria 700–400 

B.C.

2.0 Early use of lead?

Augsburg from late 

Roman times

A.D. 

200–400

4.7 Water pipes, ceramics, 

lead food containers.

Augsburg, rich person 

from the postRoman period

A.D. 600 4.5 Luxurious Roman 

lifestyle.

Regensburg, poor 

person from the 

post-Roman period

A.D. 600 1.4 No Roman luxury.

Regensburg, nuns 

from the Middle 

Ages

A.D. 

800–900

2.4 Increasing prosperity 

of the cloister.

Regensburg, nuns A.D. 1100 5.1 Use of lead-bearing 

tin.

Augsburg, monks 

from the Middle 

Ages

A.D. 

1000–

1200

5.0 Printing presses and 

so on.

Modern person A.D. 1983 11–12 Lead in gasoline and 

so on. 1

Milligrams of lead per kilogram of bone.
areas today, fossil water is being used. Such water must be 

considered a nonrenewable resource when its slow recharge 

is measured against its rapid depletion. Huge quantities of 

soil, which likewise must be considered a nonrenewable 

resource, are lost every year to erosion by water and wind, 

thus reducing the amount of arable land. These growing 

resource constraints, in combination with an increasing 

population, are significantly reducing the amount of arable 

land per capita worldwide (fig. 15). This is an historic paradox, where humanity must be more concerned in the future 

with the availability of nonrenewable resources than with 

renewable ones.

References Cited

Alkan, Z., Briem, S., Dienhart, M., Kugeler, K., and 

Quinkertz, R., 1999, Methodik und Anwendung eines 

Energiemodells zur Analyse energetischer Aspekte von 

Prozessen der Metallherstellung [Methodology and application of an energy model for the analysis of the energy 

aspects of metal production]: Berichtskolloquium SFB 525, 

Ressourcenorientierte Gesamtbetrachtung von Stoffströmen 

metallischer Rohstoffe - Entwicklung von Methoden und 

ihre Anwendung, RWTH Aachen 20.10.99.

Birke, Manfred, and Rauch, Uwe, 1997, Geo­chemical 

in­vestigations in the Berlin Metropolitan Area: Zeitschrift 

für angewandte Geologie, v. 43, no. 1, p. 58–65.

Bristow, C.M., 1987, Society’s changing requirements for 

primary raw materials: Industrial Minerals, v. 233, p. 59–65.

Brundtland, G.H., 1987, Our common future—Report of the 

World Commission on Environment and Development: 

Oxford, U.K., Oxford University Press, 400 p.

Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit (German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature 

Conservation and Nuclear Safety), 1998, Nachhaltige Entwicklung in Deutschland—Entwurf eines umweltpolitischen 

Schwerpunktprogramms [Sustainable development in Germany—Draft environmental program]: Bonn, Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit, 147 p.

Callender, Edward, and Rice, K.C., 2000, The urban environmental gradient—Anthropogenic influences on the spatial and 

temporal distributions of lead and zinc in sediments: Environmental Science and Technology, v. 34, no. 2, p. 232–237.

Enquete-Kommission Schutz des Menschen und der Umwelt 

[Enquete Commission on Protection of Man and the Environment], 1993, Verantwortung für die Zukunft—Wege 

zum nachhaltigen Umgang mit Stoff- und Materialströmen 

[Responsibility for the future—Sustainable materials and 

materials flow]: Bonn, Economica-Verlag, 332 p.

Friege, Henning, Kost, Ulrich, and Claus, Frank, eds., 1985, 

Die tückische Hypothek—Chemiepolitik für Schwermetalle 

[The malicious mortgage—Chemistry politics for heavy 

metals]: Karlsruhe, Verlag C.F. Müller, 219 p.

Geissler, H., Moeker, H., Sauer, G., and Schrewe, F., 

1982, Tunnelplanung der Deutschen Bundesbahn in 

erd­fallgefährdetem Gebiet—NBS Hannover-Würzburg, 

Leinebusch-Tunnel [Tunnel planning in a region of subsidence—New high-speed railway line from Hanover to 

Wuerzberg, Leinbusch Tunnel]: Rock Mechanics, Supplementum 12, p. 63–73.

Gwosdz, W., and Lorenz, W., 2000, Flächenbedarf für den 

Abbau von oberflächennahen Rohstoffen (Steine und Erden, 

Braunkohle und Torf) im Jahr 1997 [Area requirements for 

the dismantling of raw materials near the surface (stones 

and ground connection, brown coal and peat) in the year 

1997]: Hannover, Federal Institute for Geosciences and 

Natural Resources, Fakten, Analysen, wirtschaftliche Hintergrundinformationen, v. 9, 4 p.

Jeffery, W.G., 1998, A world of metals—Finding, making and 

using metals: Ottawa, The International Council on Metals 

and the Environment, 41 p.

Kippenberger, Christoph, 2001, Materials flow and energy 

required for the production of selected mineral commodities—Summary and conclusions: Geologisches Jahrbuch, 

Reihe H, Sonderheft 13, 55 p.

Neumann-Mahlkau, Peter, 1997, Anthropogenic material 

flow—A geologic factor, in Zhang, Zhonghu, de Mulder, 

E.F.J., Liu, Tungsheng, and Zhou, Liping, eds., Geo­science 

and human survival, environment, natural hazards, and 

global change: Proceedings of the 30th International Geological Congress, Beijing, China, August 4–14, 1996, 

v. 2–3, p. 61–66.

Taylor, H.K., 1978, Mine valuation and feasibility studies, in

Hoskins, J.R., and Green,W.R., eds., Mineral industry costs 

(2d ed.): Spokane, Wash., Northwest Mining Association, 

p. 1–17.

Thomas, V.M., Socolow, R.H., Fanelli, J.J,. and Spiro, T.G., 

1999, Effects of reducing lead in gasoline—An analysis of 

the international experience: Environmental Science and 

Technology, v. 33, no. 22, p. 3942–3948.

United Nations Environment Programme, 1989, Statement of 

sustainable development: 15th Session of the Governing 

Council, Governing Council Decision 15/2, May 23, 1989, 

Annex II, GOAR, 44th Session Supplement, no. 25.

U.S. Geological Survey, 1998, Getting the lead out—Positive 

effects of the Clean Air Act: U.S. Geological Survey Web 

page at http://www.nwrc.usgs.gov/world/content/water3.html.

Global Nonfuel Mineral Resources and Sustainablity 15
16  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

von Carlowitz, H.C., 1713, Sylvicultura oeconomica: Leipzig, 

Braun, 432 p.

Wellmer, F.-W., and Becker-Platen, J.D., eds., 1999, Mit der 

Erde leben—Beiträge Geologischer Dienste zur Daseinsvorsorge und nachhaltigen Entwicklung [Living with the 

Earth— Contributions of geological services to ensure life 

and sustainable development]: Berlin, Springer-Verlag,

273 p.

Wellmer, F.-W., and Becker-Platen, J.D., 2001, World natural 

resources policy—Focussing on mineral resources, in Our 

fragile world—Challenges and opportunities for sustainable 

development: Oxford, U.K., Encyclopedia of Life Support 

Systems Publishers Co. Ltd., v. 1, p. 183–207.

Wellmer, F.-W., and Becker-Platen, J.D., 2002, Sustainable 

development and the exploitation of mineral and energy 

resources—A review: International Journal of Earth Sciences, v. 91, no. 5, p. 723–745.

Wellmer, F.-W., and Lorenz, W., 1999, Von den (Edel-) Metallen 

zu den Nichtmetallen—Bodenschätze im Wandel ihrer volkswirtschaftlichen Bedeutung [From metals and noble metals 

to nonmetals—Changing economics of our land’s natural 

resources]: Schriftenreihe der Georg-Agricola-Gesellschaft, 

Bochum, Georg-Agricola-Gesellschaft, v. 24, p. 97–116.

Wellmer, F.-W., and Wagner, Markus, 2000, Rohstofftrends am 

Beginn des 3. Jahrtausends [Raw material trends at the beginning 

of the third millennium]: Erzmetall, v. 53, no. 10, p. 569–582.
Uses of a Global Mineral Resource Assessment

The Contributions of Geologic Information to Economic, Social, and 

Environmental Sustainability

By Deborah J. Shields1

including geology. To the degree that scientists are willing and 

able to address the urgent needs of society and then communicate their knowledge to the public and decisionmakers, the status of the sciences will be improved as well (Lubchenco, 1998).

In this presentation, I will discuss one facet of the complex 

interaction between experts and the public: how to increase the 

likelihood that the scientific expertise of geologists and the data 

that they can provide are utilized in the development and review 

of policies related to sustainable development.

The field of geology developed largely in response to societal needs for natural resources, particularly energy and mineral 

resources, and also in part because of geogenic impacts on the 

human-made environment. Energy and mineral resources remain 

integral components of economic and social systems, providing 

essential inputs to virtually every economic sector and acting as the 

driving force for some local, regional, and national economies. At 

the same time, resource extraction, processing, use, and disposal 

can have serious environmental consequences that have the potential to threaten environmental security and degrade present and 

future quality of life (Shields, 1998). In addition, surface and nearsurface earth (geological) processes determine both the character 

of the landscape and the state of the physical and built environment 

(Hughes, 1995; Berger and Iams, 1996). Clearly, geologic information will be relevant to many aspects of sustainable development.

Geologists traditionally have focused on the scientific and 

technical aspects of their field, but if they are to be perceived as 

relevant to the sustainability debate, they will have to demonstrate 

that geologic information will help societies achieve the goal of sustainable socioeconomic and biophysical systems. Being conversant 

with the concept of sustainability will be necessary but not sufficient. Geologists will need to understand the policymaking process 

and enhance their communications skills so that they are able to 

present geologic information (1) in a format that is understandable 

and (2) at a point in the policy or management cycle that is useful 

to decisionmakers. Another important step in getting geologic input 

utilized will be to reach a mutual understanding between the data 

user and data provider about the ultimate purpose for the data. The 

geologist, in the role of data provider, has to be aware of needs of 

the data user and vice versa. The data user has to be aware of the 

limitations of the data provided. These needs suggest that the range 

Environmental issues received increasing attention during 

the last three decades of the 20th century, a situation that no doubt 

will continue as we move into the 21st century. Societies all over 

the world began to realize that the ability of the Earth’s systems to 

supply natural resources and services is finite, but that demands 

on those systems are multiplying rapidly (Arrow and others, 

1995). The viability of current lifestyles and consumption patterns 

began to be questioned. Many different societies and professions 

embraced the paradigm of sustainable development as a philosophical construct within which to frame fundamental questions 

about the use and preservation of natural capital. The paradigm is 

based upon the ethical premise that current growth should not be 

achieved at the expense of future generations (Brundtland, 1987).

Sustainability deals with the intergenerational and intrage­nera­tional implications of finding an appropriate balance among the 

needs of economic, environmental, and social systems. Although 

no single definition of sustainable development is acceptable to 

all parties, the general concept of sustainability has become so 

widespread in recent years that politicians and decisionmakers have 

embraced it as an underlying way of thinking about their programs 

and policies. Sustainability often is described in terms of principles, 

criteria, and indicators, where criteria represent statements of what 

is meant by principles of sustainability and indicators are measures 

of the degree to which the criteria are being reached (Granholm and 

others, 1996). Because indicators require measures and measures 

must be supported by data, it follows that a focus on sustainable 

development inevitably will lead to an increase in the demand for 

reliable, unbiased information.

Science is “the organized systematic enterprise that gathers 

knowledge about the world and condenses the knowledge into 

testable laws and principles” (Wilson, 1998, p. 53). Given that 

science expands our understanding of the world, it is reasonable 

to expect that policymakers and the public will look to scientists 

for information about the status and functioning of the Earth’s 

systems. The current interest in issues of sustainability thus will 

help raise the visibility of both the social and natural sciences, 

1

U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain 

Research Station, 2150 Centre Avenue, Bldg. A, Ft. Collins, CO 80526, 

U.S.A. (e-mail: dshields@fs.fed.us).
18  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

of information that geologists will supply should go well beyond 

what has traditionally been the case.

As Lubchenco (1995) pointed out, the best policy is based 

on the best science. Science, however, is a dynamic, ongoing 

process that continually is discovering new information. Thus, the 

interaction between science and policy must also be ongoing and 

dynamic. Lubchenco listed eight types of useful scientific communication: (1) what is known, (2) the certainty with which it is 

known, (3) what is not known, (4) what is suspected, (5) the limits 

of science, (6) probable outcomes of different policy options, (7) 

key areas where new information is needed, and (8) recommended 

mechanisms for obtaining high-priority information. Essentially, 

Lubchenco recommended a proactive role for scientists, one in 

which they not only provide information, but also frame the issues, 

set research priorities, synthesize complex information, and, 

perhaps most importantly, communicate how science works. This 

expanded role is an appropriate one for geologists.

Policymaking is a cyclical process that may be seen as 

progressing through a series of six stages: (1) identification of 

objectives and interests, (2) definition of policy, (3) codification of 

policy in laws and acts, (4) establishment of a regulatory framework, (5) monitoring, and (6) review and adaptation. The type of 

input geologists provide will depend upon where a society is in 

this policy cycle and also on the decision context, be it in the mineral sector, an issue related to land use and development, nature 

conservation, or interactions between the environment and society 

(that is, anthropogenic versus geogenic impacts).

Clearly there is a need for input from geology as a country’s 

mineral policy is being defined. The consensus building process 

necessary to the achievement of a relevant and widely accepted 

mineral policy will depend in part upon information about the 

impacts and consequences of choosing one policy option over 

another. Decisionmakers will need information about the depletion of mineral resources and the environmental effects of mining. 

For earth scientists, the challenge will be to develop (1) a better 

scientific basis for discussion of adequacy of mineral resources; 

(2) better data on factors involved in mineral supply that should 

be in public policy analysis and decisionmaking; (3) better ways 

to communicate to policymakers and the public the dynamic 

nature of mineral supply, thus putting the prospect of “running out” in the proper context; and (4) methods to incorporate 

recycling and reuse into the concept of sustainability (National 

Research Council, Committee on Earth Resources, 1996).

There also is an enormous need for science input in the 

development of laws and regulations regarding the environmental impacts of mining. There is a high cost to society when the 

government enforces laws and subsequent regulations that make no 

sense to people (Wilson and Anderson, 1997). Here, geologists can 

provide information to policymakers and the public about (1) the 

environmental consequences of mining, including the costs of environmental compliance and the effects of using best practices in the 

environmental management of mining; (2) improved environmental 

management and restoration ecology associated with mining and 

mineral processing; and (3) how mining affects the environment 

and how environmental degradation can be minimized (National 

Research Council, Committee on Earth Resources, 1996).

Finally, the input of science in the review and adaptation 

phase cannot be underestimated. Environmental regulation 

will not adapt quickly to scientific advances unless scientists 

themselves remain involved in the policy cycle. However, 

given the engagement of scientists and a societal willingness 

to respond to new information and changing preferences, 

adaptive management is possible (Lee, 1993).

References Cited

Arrow, Kenneth, Bolin, Bert, Costanza, Robert, Dasgupta, Partha, Folke, Carl, Hollins, C.S., Jansson, Bengt-Owe, Levin, 

Simon, Maler, Karl-Goran, Perrings, Charles, and Pimentel, 

David, 1995, Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the 

environment: Science, v. 268, no. 5210, p. 520–521.

Berger, A.R., and Iams, W.J., 1996, Geoindicators—Assessing 

rapid environmental changes in earth systems: Rotterdam, 

A.A. Balkema, 466 p.

Brundtland, G.H., 1987, Our common future—Report of the 

World Commission on Environment and Development: 

Oxford, U.K., Oxford University Press, 400 p.

Granholm, Heikki, Vähänen, Tiina, and Sahlberg, Sari, 1996, 

Background document—Intergovernmental Seminar on 

Criteria and Indicators for Sustainable Forest Management: 

Helsinki, Finland Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 131 p.

Hughes, S.P., 1995, Two tools for integrating geology into ecosystem studies: Environmental Geology, v. 26, p. 246–251.

Lee, Kai N., 1993, Compass and gyroscope; Integrating science and politics for the environment: Washington, D.C., 

Island Press, 243 p.

Lubchenco, Jane, 1995, The role of science in formulating a 

biodiversity strategy, in Science and Biodiversity Policy, a 

supplement to BioScience: Washington, D.C., American 

Institute of Biological Sciences, p. S7–S9.

Lubchenco, Jane, 1998, Entering the century of the environment—A new social contract for science: Science, v. 279, 

no. 5350, p. 491–497.

National Research Council, Committee on Earth Resources, 

1996, Mineral resources and sustainability—Challenges 

for earth scientists: Washington, D.C., National Academy 

Press, 26 p.

Shields, D.J., 1998, Nonrenewable resources in economic, 

social, and environmental sustainability: Nonrenewable 

Resources, v. 7, no. 4, p. 251–262.

Wilson, E.O., 1998, Consilience—The unity of knowledge: 

New York, Alfred A. Knopf, 332 p.

Wilson, J.D., and Anderson, J.W., 1997, What the science 

says—How we use it and abuse it to make health and environmental policy: Resources, v. 128, p. 5–8.
Environmental Planning Issues and a Conceptual Global Assessment 

of Undiscovered Nonfuel Mineral Resources

By Joseph A. Briskey,1 Klaus J. Schulz,1 John P. Mosesso,1 Lief R. Horwitz,2 and Charles G. Cunningham1

zie and others, 2003, 2005). Moreover, “industrialization is 

central to economic development and improved prospects for 

human well-being ... . A substantial share of industrial growth 

in developing countries revolves around the transformation 

of raw materials into industrial materials” (World Resources 

Institute and others, 1998, p. 51).

No global shortages of nonfuel mineral resources are 

expected in the near future. However, society’s ability to meet 

the continuing and growing demand for minerals requires 

sustained exploration for, and development of, new mineral 

deposits. At the same time, mineral exploration and development increasingly are constrained by a variety of real and 

perceived factors that have begun limiting the availability of 

mineral resources. Among these factors are (1) other competing land uses; (2) limited local economic and social benefits 

of mining, especially to populations in developing countries; 

(3) wasteful or inefficient use of mineral materials; and (4) 

adverse environmental effects of mining, together with distrust 

of those who promise that such effects can be prevented or 

1

U.S. Geological Survey, 954 National Center, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, 

Reston, VA 20192–0002, U.S.A. (e-mail: jbriskey@usgs.gov).

2

U.S. Geological Survey, 909 1st Avenue, Seattle, WA 98104–1055, U.S.A.

Introduction

Global demand for materials, including nonfuel mineral 

resources, will continue to increase (fig. 1) for the foreseeable 

future because of the continuing growth of global population 

and efforts to improve living standards worldwide. About 89 

percent of these materials, as reported by Matos and Wagner 

(1998), consist of nonfuel mineral resources. Copper consumption in China exemplifies the growing global consumption of nonfuel mineral resources (fig. 2). If China grows and 

develops over the next 25 years at a rate like that of South 

Korea in the past 25 years, then China could consume more 

copper in 2025 than was produced in the world in 1995 (MenFigure 1. Graph of world and U.S. consumption (use) of nonfood, 

nonfuel, and nonrenewable materials, including construction 

materials, industrial minerals, primary and recycled metals, 

nonrenewable organic materials, primary and recycled paper, 

wood products, and material derived from agriculture (Matos and 

Wagner, 1998; Brown and others, 2000, p. 28; Grecia Matos, U.S. 

Geological Survey, written commun., 2002).

United States

World

YEAR

CONSUMPTION, IN BILLIONS OF METRIC TONS 

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Figure 2. Graph of copper consumption in China (in millions of 

metric tons per year). If China grows and develops in the next 25 

years as South Korea has in the past 25 years, then China could 

consume more copper in 2025 than the whole world used in 1995 

(Menzie and others, 2003, 2005).

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

CONSUMPTION, IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS PER YEAR

World consumption in 1995

Consumption

in China in 

2025 (low 

estimate)

Consumption

in China in 

1995

Consumption

in China in 

2025 (high 

estimate)
effectively and permanently mitigated. In particular, mineral 

development is affected especially by growing concerns about 

possible environmental degradation associated with mineral 

exploration and production.

Unanticipated, and therefore unplanned, mineral exploration and development, especially in sensitive ecosystems and 

other environments, can add to the ongoing fragmentation and 

destruction of habitats required for the long-term maintenance 

of key plant and animal communities and to an overall reduction in ecosystem health. Increasingly, human populations 

and their activities “are disturbing species and their habitats, 

disrupting natural ecological processes, and even changing 

climate patterns on a global scale” (President’s Committee of 

Advisors on Science and Technology, 1998). “We are modifying physical, chemical, and biological systems in new ways, 

at faster rates, and over larger spatial scales than ever recorded 

on earth” (Lubchenco, 1998, p. 492). “If current trends continue, humanity will dramatically alter virtually all of Earth’s 

remaining natural ecosystems within a few decades” (Daily 

and others, 1997, p. 3). One measure of these concerns is 

shown by the extent to which domesticated land has replaced 

much of the Earth’s original land cover, as illustrated in figure 

3. Another measure is the decline of Earth’s forests, as shown 

in figures 4 and 5.

What is the one thing the average person is most likely to 

believe about mining?

Is it that we are running out of nonfuel minerals with 

some dire consequence? Probably not. There is no global 

shortage of nonfuel minerals at present.

Is it that mining is an important part of the global economy? Probably not. By some measures, the mining sector 

appears to be a small player. Pierre Lassonde, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Franco-Nevada Mining, recently 

pointed out (Kral, 2000, p. 46) that “adding together all of 

the global gold, copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, and diamond producers represents a business with a total market 

capitalization of about US$200 billion. Some individual 

companies like Microsoft and Cisco Systems are valued at 

more than US$400 billion. Rio Tinto, the biggest mining company in the world, has a market capitalization of 

about US$25 billion.”

Is it that a number of mining companies are making major 

new advances in mitigating, remediating, and preventing 

much of the environmental impact of mining? No, probably not.

Is it that mining causes environmental and sometimes 

social disasters? Probably yes.

The negative image of mining has reached the point 

where leaders of some major mining companies are beginning to recognize and promote the necessity and benefits to 

•

•

•

•

Figure 3. Map showing global distribution of domesticated and nondomesticated land areas. “Domesticated land has replaced much 

of Earth’s original land cover. Over time, humans have converted forests and natural grasslands to croplands, pasture, urban and 

suburban areas, and industrial zones” (World Resources Institute and others, 1998, p. 222). Map from World Resources Institute and 

others (1998); reproduced by permission of the World Resources Institute. Red stippling along some continental margins, mainly in the 

Northern Hemisphere, is an artifact of computer colorization.

20 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development
Figure 4. Map showing decline in forest cover around the world. Over the last 8,000 years, the world’s forests have shrunk by nearly 

half with the clearing of boreal and temperate forests in the early centuries, followed today by high deforestation rates in the tropical 

forests. Map from World Resources Institute and others (1998); reproduced by permission of the World Resources Institute.

FOREST COVER

Existing

Original

Figure 5. Graph showing the decline of global forest ecosystems. “Just one fifth of the Earth’s original forest remains in large, 

relatively natural ecosystems—what are known as frontier forests” (World Resources Institute and others, 1998, p. 187). Graph from 

World Resources Institute and others (1998); reproduced by permission of the World Resources Institute.

20

15

10

5

0

Cleared

Nonfrontier forest

Frontier forest

FOREST ECOSYSTEMS, IN MILLIONS 

OF SQUARE KILOMETERS

RUSSIA ASIA NORTH

AND

CENTRAL

AMERICA

SOUTH

AMERICA

AFRICA OCEANIA

Environmental Planning Issues and a Conceptual Global Assessment of Undiscovered Nonfuel Mineral Resources 21
the mining industry of admitting to past shortcomings and 

embracing environmental and social values and responsibilities in the cause of sustainable development. Patrick James, 

CEO of Rio Algom Ltd, was among the first voices (James, 

1999) to urge that mining, like other forms of development, 

must contribute not only economic value to stakeholders but 

also environmental and social value. He emphasized that, “as 

an industry, we will gradually find ourselves unable to operate 

anywhere if we are incapable, or reluctant to effectively combine economic, environmental, and social goals everywhere 

we do business” (James, 1999, p. 90).

Sir Robert Wilson, Executive Chairman of Rio Tinto, in 

summarizing the major challenges facing the mining industry 

(O’Neil and others, 2000), asserted that mining finds itself 

in increasing disfavor in the United States, Canada, Europe, 

and many other parts of the world. Industry’s traditional 

responses—to say that criticisms are ill founded, to remind 

critics that they depend on mineral products, and to engage in 

education, advertising, and public relations campaigns—have 

all been to little or no avail. Mining’s reputation continues to 

deteriorate. Sir Robert urged the mining industry to change the 

nature of its dialog with stakeholders, especially with nongovernmental organizations. He supported a new global mining 

initiative to seek independent analysis of issues that will determine the future of mining, and he recognized that these issues 

are social and environmental as well as economic (O’Neil and 

others, 2000). The global mineral resource assessment discussed herein is an important component of such an analysis.

Global Land and Resource Planning

Informed planning and decisions concerning biological 

sustainability and resource development require a long-term 

perspective and an integrated approach to land use, resource, 

and environmental management worldwide. This approach, 

in turn, requires unbiased information on the global distribution of identified resources and, especially, of undiscovered 

resources; the economic, social, and political factors influencing their development; and the environmental consequences 

of, and requirements for, their use.

The world’s current approach to land and mineral 

resource planning appears to be piecemeal and haphazard 

rather than comprehensive and integrated. In separate actions 

by diverse governmental and nongovernmental organizations 

over the years, mineral development has been prohibited or 

has been proposed to become prohibited, in large parts of 

the world, including Antarctica; the Arctic Islands; numerous national and international parks, wildlife preserves, and 

wilderness areas; tropical rainforests; temperate old-growth 

forests; a variety of alpine and desert regions; and many other 

sensitive or endangered habitats, ecosystems, scenic vistas, 

and roadless areas. Concomitantly, and ironically, as countries 

grow, develop, and use more mineral products, mining can 

become increasingly unwelcome at home. Sources of future 

mineral supply rapidly are becoming more restricted, while 

national and international governmental and nongovernmental 

organizations appear to be devoting little effort to identifying and assuring access to areas of future mineral supply that 

might best sustain the environmental effects of mining.

The economies of highly industrialized societies use tremendous amounts of materials per capita—45 to 85 metric tons 

per person per year in one study cited by the World Resources 

Institute and others (1998). Further, the use of these materials 

requires moving or processing huge amounts of natural resources 

not actually used in the final product. As much as 50 to 75 percent of this hidden materials flow, and associated environmental 

effects, often takes place in other countries (World Resources 

Institute and others, 1998). Highly industrialized societies can 

help plan global mineral development and ecosystem sustainability by helping initiate and conduct an international assessment of 

the probable regional locations, amounts, and types of the world’s 

remaining undiscovered nonfuel mineral resources in relation to 

sensitive ecosystems and habitats. With such information, mineral 

development could be encouraged in those areas most able to 

sustain the environmental effects of mining and mineral processing and discouraged or carefully managed in especially sensitive 

areas. If the choices for future supplies of some minerals prove to 

be limited mostly to areas where maintaining ecosystem health 

and sustainability may be difficult, then international cooperation 

could be justified and accelerated to (1) optimize materials flows 

and recycling of materials derived from these minerals, (2) promote research into alternative materials and technology to replace 

these minerals or minimize their use, and (3) develop advanced 

new mitigation techniques for exploration, mining, and processing for these minerals. “An electorate that does not understand 

the natural world or the nature of the tradeoffs that must be made 

in managing it wisely and sustainably cannot make informed 

decisions” (President’s Committee of Advisors on Science and 

Technology, 1998, p. xviii).

A Global Mineral Resource 

Assessment

In response to growing concern about the global sustainability of nonfuel mineral production and environmental quality, 

and the concomitant increase in demand for global mineral 

resource information, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is 

joining with international collaborators to identify the regional 

locations and estimate the probable amounts of the world’s 

undiscovered nonfuel mineral resources at a scale of 1:1 million 

on land in conventional deposit types to a depth of 1 kilometer. 

The assessment will begin with copper, platinum-group metals, 

and potash. Potash will be assessed to a depth of 2 kilometers.

Teams of experts following the USGS three-part protocol 

for mineral resource assessment (Singer, this volume) will 

delineate areas where geology permits the occurrence of a 

given type of undiscovered mineral deposit. The teams then 

will make subjective, probabilistic estimates of the numbers 

22 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development
of undiscovered deposits they believe to exist in each area. To 

help interpret results such as these, a computer program called 

MARK3 (Root and others, 1992; Duval, 2001) was developed. 

The program uses Monte Carlo simulation to combine the estimated numbers of deposits with appropriate grade and tonnage 

models to produce a probability distribution of the quantities 

of contained metals or other mineral commodities. The net 

present value of the undiscovered resources will be analyzed 

by using new economic filters under development for addition 

to MARK3 (J.S. Duval, USGS, oral commun., 2000).

The three-part assessment protocol was used by the 

USGS to produce the first assessment of conventional undiscovered deposits of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc in 

the United States (Ludington and others, 1996). Illustrative 

examples of products from this national assessment are shown 

in figures 6, 7, and 8 for undiscovered kuroko massive sulfide 

deposits. At a minimum, three types of data are needed for 

an assessment of undiscovered mineral resources: (1) maps 

showing the locations, sizes, and geologic types of significant 

known mineral deposits and occurrences; (2) geologic maps 

compiled to show rocks permissive for the occurrence of 

undiscovered mineral deposits by type; and (3) as much information as possible about mineral exploration history.

Conceptual Assessment Products 

and Some Potential Environmental 

Planning Issues

Assessments of undiscovered mineral resources can be of 

great importance in helping society recognize, discuss, manage, and minimize or prevent environmental impacts associated with mineral exploration and mining, while maintaining 

or expanding mineral supplies. This section briefly describes 

a few of the potential environmental planning issues that 

might be identified and addressed in part by a global mineral resource assessment. A hypothetical example of such 

an assessment is illustrated conceptually in figure 9 and is 

intended only as a starting point for discussion of such issues.

Biodiversity and Sensitive Habitats

With reference to figure 9, what are some examples of the 

potential consequences of mineral development that might be 

considered with respect to biodiversity and sensitive habitats?

Figure 6. Tract map for kuroko massive sulfide deposits in the conterminous United States showing areas where the geology is 

permissive for the occurrence of this type of deposit. Favorable areas are shown by different colors and labels. From Luddington and 

others (1996). Estimates of undiscovered deposits and metal resources in tract PC–17 are shown in figures 7 and 8.

LS04 1 3 2 4 5

6 7

LS05

1 2

1

CR25

LS02

LS03

NR19

NR20

PC18 SA05

SA06

SA07

SA08 SA09

SB25

SB26

GB21

NR18

PC12

PC13

PC17

PC15

PC14

SA04

PC16

1 2 3 4 5-6

7

1

1-3

1

2

3

1

2

1

1

1

2

3

NA11

NA12

NA13 NA14

NA15

NA16

1

2

1

1

2

SB

GB

NR

CP CR

GP

LS

EC

SA

AD

NA PC AD: Adirondack Mountains

CP: Colorado Plateau

CR: Central and Southern Rocky Mountains

EC: East-central United States

LS: Lake Superior

NA: Northern Appalachian Mountains

NR: Northern Rocky Mountains

PC: Pacific Coast

SB: Southern Basin and Range

GB: Great Basin

SA: Southern Appalachian Mountains 0 50 100 200 300 400 kilometers

Map projection = Albers Equal Area

0 50 100 200 300 400 miles

Environmental Planning Issues and a Conceptual Global Assessment of Undiscovered Nonfuel Mineral Resources 23
Figure 7. Chart summarizing probabilistic subjective estimates by experts of numbers of undiscovered kuroko massive sulfide deposits 

in tract PC–17, California (see fig. 6). From Ludington and others (1996). Corresponding amounts of contained metal and mineralized rock 

were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation.

Cu Au Zn Ag Pb Rock

700 0 0 0 0 97,000

12,000 0 12,000 18 0 690,000

140,000 16 260,000 710 46,000 8,500,000

310,000 45 815,000 2,700 200,000 19,000,000

360,000 55 990,000 3,400 250,000 22,000,000

160,000 20 340,000 1,100 76,000 9,200,000

0.46 0.43 0.40 0.38 0.38 0.46

0.04 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.10 0.04

Estimated Undiscovered Deposits

There is a 1% or greater chance of 25 or more deposits.

There is a 5% or greater chance of 25 or more deposits.

There is a 10% or greater chance of 25 or more deposits.

There is a 50% or greater chance of 13 or more deposits.

There is a 90% or greater chance of 2 or more deposits.

Estimated amounts of contained metal and mineralized rock, in metric tons

Quantile

0.95

0.90

0.50

0.10

0.05

Mean

Probability of mean

Probability of zero

Figure 8. Graph showing cumulative distributions of contained metal and mineralized rock (in metric tons) in undiscovered kuroko 

massive sulfide deposits estimated in tract PC–17, California (see figs. 6 and 7). From Ludington and others (1996).

Au

Ag

Pb

Cu

Zn

Rock

See figure 7 for probability 

of zero metric tons

Filled circles display 

mean amounts

PROBABILITY

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00

0.00.1

10

1,000

100,000

10 million

1 billion

100 billion

24  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development
In the severe climates of high latitudes, fragile ecosystems 

disturbed by mining and associated infrastructure development are slow to recover (for example, see Forbes, 1997; 

Oksanen and Virtanen, 1997; Rapport and others, 1997). 

However, biodiversity is relatively low (fig. 9), and impacts 

on biodiversity potentially would be correspondingly low. 

Moreover, people whose livelihoods depend on mining 

are less likely to continue living in many of these harsh, 

isolated areas after mining and mining-related jobs end.

Hypothetical undiscovered mineral resources that might 

occur as shown in Southeast Asia (fig. 9) would be in 

what presently is habitat for endangered tigers.

Discovery and development of estimated undiscovered 

kuroko massive sulfide deposits in the foothills of central 

California (fig. 6) have the potential to adversely affect 

endangered species habitat and vulnerable plant communities that have been delineated by the USGS GAP 

Analysis Program (figs. 10 and 11).

World tin resources in differing geologic settings have 

a high spatial correlation (Cunningham and others, this 

volume) with the distribution of biodiversity “hotspots” as 

defined by Conservation International (Mittermeier and 

others, 1999).

•

•

•

•

Land Use

Habitat disturbance, fragmentation, and destruction 

resulting from infrastructure development are principal causes 

of species extinction. Ideally, mineral exploration programs 

would limit land disturbance globally by focusing mainly 

on areas assessed to have a high probability of containing an 

economic deposit (Sweeting and Clark, 2000).

Mineral exploration and development also might be 

encouraged where areas having a high probability of containing an economic deposit coincide with areas of existing infrastructure. Consequently, maps and other information showing the types and density of infrastructure development and 

associated land uses would be important ancillary databases, 

in combination with a global mineral resource assessment.

Large parts of the world are restricted or closed to mineral 

discovery and development. An example for the State of Idaho 

in the United States is shown in figure 12. All of the colored 

areas in figure 12 once were open to mineral exploration and 

development. By 1988, only the green areas were open. Similar 

maps for other parts of the world, together with a global assessment of undiscovered mineral resources, are critical for identification and analysis of remaining sources of future mineral 

supply, as additional areas are considered for closure.

Large

Medium

Small

Hypothetical tracts predicted to 

contain undiscovered deposits of 

a nonfuel mineral resource in 

amounts:

These are the only places in the 

world where undiscovered 

deposits of this mineral 

commodity are predicted to 

occur.

Figure 9. A conceptual global assessment in which tracts predicted to contain deposits of a generic undiscovered nonfuel mineral resource 

are plotted on a base map showing global biodiversity of vascular plant species represented by the numbers of vascular plants per 10,000 

square kilometers. The base map is available online at http://www.biologie.uni-hamburg.de/b-online/e56/56b.htm (accessed June 15, 2005) and 

is modified from Barthlott and others (1999); reproduced by permission of the Finnish Zoological and Botanical Publishing Board.

Environmental Planning Issues and a Conceptual Global Assessment of Undiscovered Nonfuel Mineral Resources 25
Water Resources and Quality

The boundaries of major drainage basins commonly 

are international, as illustrated in figure 13. A global mineral 

resource assessment can help identify future mineral resources 

in regions having adequate water supplies and hydrologic and 

geologic characteristics best able to maintain water quantity 

and quality during and (or) after mineral development. Such 

an assessment also has the potential to identify types of undiscovered mineral resources and climates least likely in combination to cause serious environmental challenges.

In the Final Analysis

Individual countries are becoming less free to develop 

their natural resources at the expense, real or perceived, of 

social and, especially, environmental quality; environmental 

concerns include clean air and water, protection of endangered 

species, biodiversity, global climate, and the ozone layer. 

National decisions about trade, including those made in the 

United States, often must follow laws requiring that associated 

environmental consequences be considered. Global environmental and trade agreements can be linked in ways restricting 

natural resource development. International funding agencies 

like the World Bank and the United Nations may withhold 

funding from projects seen as potential threats to environmental quality. Boycotts by consumers and national governments 

have been used effectively to influence, restrict, and even stop 

natural resource development. The charter for the World Trade 

Figure 10. Map showing mineral resource tract PC–17 (fig. 6) in 

relation to numbers of rare and endangered species in California, 

U.S.A. (Davis and others, 1998).

PC–17

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9–24

Numbers of rare and 

endangered species 

by quadrangle

Figure 11. Map showing mineral resource tract PC–17 (fig. 

6) in relation to vulnerable plant communities by quadrangle in 

California, U.S.A. (Davis and others, 1998).

0–0.344

0.344–3.182

3.182–7.625

7.625–12.183

12.183–21.602

21.602–29.671

29.671–35.046

35.046–39.649

39.649–45.756

45.756–97.911

Vulnerability score 

by quadrangle

N

1:6212563

PC–17

Figure 12. Map showing 1988 status of availability of Federal 

land for some locatable minerals (includes most metallic and 

nonmetallic minerals) in Idaho, U.S.A. (Hyndman and others, 1990).

100 Km

Available

Restricted

Not available

Not Federal

Known mineral areas

STATUS

26  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development
Organization allows environmentalist import bans so long as 

the reason for them is not disguised protectionism.

Free trade no longer includes a number of resources such 

as whales, ivory, seals, furs, eagle feathers, and other parts of 

endangered species, to name only a few. It has become difficult 

to market tuna and shrimp unless they are caught in ways that 

protect dolphins and turtles, respectively. International pressure 

to protect the environment in all its aspects will only grow with 

time. Concomitantly, without the kinds of information that could 

be provided by a global mineral resource assessment, the world 

could unknowingly foreclose future mineral supply options that 

might otherwise have resulted in reduced environmental degradation, improved economic benefits, and enhanced social values.

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful for improvements to the manuscript suggested by their USGS colleagues Jane M. Hammarstrom and David M. Sutphin.

References Cited

Barthlott, W., Biedinger, N., Braun, G., Feig, F., Kier, G., and 

Mutke, J., 1999, Terminological and methodological aspects 

of the mapping and analysis of the global biodiversity: Acta 

Botanica Fennica, v. 162, p. 103–110.

Brown, W.M., III, Matos, G.R., and Sullivan, D.E., comps., 

2000, Materials and energy flows in the earth science 

century—A summary of a workshop held by the USGS in 

November 1998: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1194, 71 

p. (Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2000/

c1194/.)

Daily, G.C., Alexander, Susan, Ehrlich, P.R., Goulder, Larry, 

Lubchenco, Jane, Matson P.A., Mooney, H.A., Postel, Sandra, Schneider, S.H., Tilman, David, and Woodwell, G.M., 

1997, Ecosystem services—Benefits supplied to human 

societies by natural ecosystems: Issues in Ecology, no. 2, 

16 p. (Also available online at http://www.esa.org/science/

Issues/FileEnglish/issue2.pdf.)

Davis, F.W., Stoms, D.M., Hollander, A.D., Thomas, K.A., 

Stine, P.A., Odion, Dennis, Borchert, M.I., Thorne, J.H., 

Gray, M.V., Walker, R.E., Warner, Katherine, and Graae, 

Josh, 1998, The California GAP analysis project report—

An interactive atlas of terrestrial biodiversity and land 

management: Santa Barbara, Calif., University of California, one CD-ROM. (Also available online at http://www.

biogeog.ucsb.edu/projects/gap/gap_rep.html.)

Duval, J.S., 2001, A Microsoft Windows version of the 

MARK3 Monte Carlo resource simulator: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 00–415, one CD-ROM. (Also 

available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2000/of00-415/.)

Forbes, B.C., 1997, Anthropogenic tundra disturbance in 

Canada and Russia—Patterns of response within and 

among different ecosystems, in Crawford, R.M.M., ed., 

Disturbance and recovery in Arctic lands—An ecological 

perspective: Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Kluwer Academic 

Publishers, p. 365–379.

Hyndman, P.C., Ridenour, James, Crandell, W.D., and Rumsey, C.M., 1990, Availability of federally owned minerals 

for exploration and development in Western States—Idaho, 

1988: Washington, D.C., U.S. Bureau of Mines Special 

Publication, 56 p.

James, P.M., 1999, The miner and sustainable development: 

Mining Engineering, v. 51, no. 6, p. 89–92.

Kral, Steve, 2000, CIM and PDAC—South African gold—

Mining in a dot.com world: Mining Engineering, v. 52, no. 

7, p. 43–49.

Lubchenco, Jane, 1998, Entering the century of the environment—A new social contract for science: Science, v. 279, 

no. 5350, p. 491–497.

Ludington, Steve, Cox, Dennis, and McCammon, Richard, 

eds., 1996, Data base for a national mineral-resource assessment of undiscovered deposits of gold, silver, copper, lead, 

and zinc in the conterminous United States: U.S. Geological 

Survey Open-File Report 96–96, one CD-ROM. (Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1996/of96-096/.)

Environmental Planning Issues and a Conceptual Global Assessment of Undiscovered Nonfuel Mineral Resources 27

Figure 13. Map showing major drainage basins of Africa (Singh 

and others, 1997). The boundaries of drainage basins are not 

related to country borders (not shown).
Matos, Grecia, and Wagner, Lorie, 1998, Consumption of 

materials in the United States, 1900–1995: Annual Review 

of Energy and the Environment, v. 23, p. 107–122.

Menzie, W.D., DeYoung, J.H., Jr., and Steblez, W.G., 2003, 

Some implications of changing patterns of mineral consumption: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 

03–382, 35 p. (Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.

gov/of/2003/of03-382/.)

Menzie, W.D., Singer, D.A., and DeYoung, J.H., Jr., 2005, 

Mineral resources and consumption in the 21st century, 

chap. 2 of Simpson, R.D., Toman, M.A., and Ayres, R.U., 

eds., Scarcity and growth revisited—Natural resources and 

the environment in the new millennium: Washington, D.C., 

Resources for the Future Press, p. 33–53.

Mittermeier, R.A., Myers, Norman, Robles Gil, Patricio, and 

Mittermeier, C.G., 1999, Hotspots—Earth’s biologically 

richest and most endangered terrestrial ecoregions: Mexico 

City, Agrupacíon Sierra Madre, S.C., and Conservation 

International, 430 p.

Oksanen, Lauri, and Virtanen, Risto, 1997, Adaptation to 

disturbance as a part of the strategy of Arctic and alpine 

plants—Perspectives for management and restoration, in

Crawford, R.M.M., ed., Disturbance and recovery in Arctic 

lands—An ecological perspective: Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Kluwer Academic Publishers, p. 91–113.

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frontiers in mining—Meeting 21st century challenges: 

Mi­ning Engineering, v. 52, no. 6, p. 70–78.

President’s Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology, 1998, Teaming with life—Investing in science to 

understand and use America’s living capital: Washington, 

D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, Report to the 

President dated March 6, 1998, 86 p. (Available online at 

http://www.ostp.gov/Environment/html/teamingcover.html.)

Rapport, D.J., Hildén, Mikael, and Roots, E.F., 1997, Transformation of northern ecosystems under stress—Arctic ecological changes from the perspective of ecosystem health, in

Crawford, R.M.M., ed., Disturbance and recovery in Arctic 

lands—An ecological perspective: Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Kluwer Academic Publishers, p. 73–89.

Root, D.H., Menzie, W.D., and Scott, W.A., 1992, Computer 

Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative resource estimation: 

Nonrenewable Resources, v. 1, no. 2, p. 125–138.

Singh, Ashbindu, Fosnight, E.A., and Rykhus, Russell, 1997, 

Spatial data sets for environmental assessment—Towards 

bridging the data gap: United Nations Environment Programme, Division of Environment Information and Assessment, Environment Information and Assessment Technical 

Report 4 (UNEP/DEIA/TR.97–4), 66 p.

Sweeting, A.R., and Clark, A.P., 2000, Lightening the lode—

A guide to responsible large-scale mining: Washington, 

D.C., Conservation International, 112 p.

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Programme and Development Programme, and The World 

Bank, 1998, World resources 1998–99: New York, Oxford 

University Press, 369 p.

28  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development
Who Will Use a Global Mineral Resource Assessment?

An Environmental Perspective1

By Penny Flick Langhammer2

in developing countries, which may not have the technology or 

capacity to cope with the problems.

Effective conservation depends on identifying potential 

threats to biodiversity before they have irreversible impacts. 

An early warning system that helps conservationists identify 

threats, and react quickly to address them, requires accurate, 

up-to-date information from many different sources. Scientific 

data from the fields of biology, taxonomy, behavioral ecology, 

geology, economics, and sociology are critically important to 

devising conservation strategies that work. Identifying areas of 

potential resource development is an important component of 

this early warning system.

Past mineral exploration and development have resulted in 

direct and indirect damage to biodiversity, and current exploration and development pose increasing threats in the world’s 

biodiversity hotspots and major tropical wilderness areas (fig. 

1). There is some concern that a global mineral resource assess1

Reprinted from “Geotimes,” March 2001, v. 46, no. 3, p. 18–19, with 

permission. Copyright 2001, the American Geological Institute.

2

Conservation International, 1919 M Street, N.W., Suite 600, Washington, 

D.C. 20036, U.S.A. (e-mail: p.langhammer@conservation.org).

The loss of biological diversity is one of the most serious 

environmental problems facing our planet. Species, genetic diversity within species, and biological communities are disappearing 

at a rate faster than at any time in history. Environmental degradation, extinction, and the subsequent loss of biological diversity, or 

biodiversity, has wide-ranging implications for humans. The fact 

that we will leave our children with a biologically impoverished 

planet may be the lesser of our concerns. Environmental degradation has been linked to poverty, malnutrition, and disease. While 

the root of this degradation often lies in the consumptive behavior 

of developed countries, the consequences are felt most strongly 

Figure 1. Map of biodiversity hotspots—Earth’s biologically richest and most endangered terrestrial ecoregions (modified from 

Conservation International, 2000).

Original extent of biodiversity hotspots

Major tropical wilderness areas
30 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

ment might highlight, and consequently target, biologically 

sensitive areas for mineral exploration. The reality is that mining companies probably have this information already, whereas 

most conservation organizations do not. It is important to know 

which areas are suitable for mineral development so that, when 

faced with such development, conservation groups can propose 

areas of lesser biological value or devise strategies to mitigate 

this development. Information resources from the geosciences, 

such as the global mineral resource assessment initiated by the 

U.S. Geological Survey, can level the playing field.

As conservation efforts increasingly aim to protect entire 

ecosystems, biologists need earth science information to 

understand the habitat requirements of organisms, including 

abiotic components such as water, soil, substrate, and nutrient 

cycles. The distribution of biodiversity is defined largely by 

the physical structure of Earth—elevation, soils, river meander, even continental drift over time.

Biologists need geological and topographical data to 

model species distributions when expensive field survey data 

are not available. Information on the distribution of species, 

especially those that are threatened and endangered, is important for designing systems of protected areas and for monitoring. In turn, biologists can help geoscientists to define a 

research agenda that would enhance conservation efforts. They 

can also work together to understand the effects of mineral 

exploration and development on biodiversity and human cultures. Science underpins effective conservation, and biologists 

and physical scientists need to collaborate.

Reference Cited

Conservation International, 2000, Map of biodiversity hotspots—Earth’s biologically richest and most endangered 

terrestrial ecoregions: Washington, D.C., Conservation 

International, 1 sheet, scale 1:38,485,000.
Minerals, Biodiversity, and Choices

By Charles G. Cunningham,1 Walter J. Bawiec,1 Klaus J. Schulz,1 Joseph A. Briskey,1 James F. Carlin, Jr.,1 and 

David M. Sutphin1

Do you remember 1960? In the United States, John F. 

Kennedy was elected President, the song “Cathy’s Clown” 

by the Everly Brothers headed the top-ten list, and a gallon 

of gasoline cost 25 cents. The population of the Earth was 

3 billion people. Now, 40 years later, the world population 

is 6 billion people. As the population increases, so does the 

consumption of most metals, a trend that has continued since 

the Industrial Revolution. The year 1960 also was the height 

of the Cold War, a time of concern about shortages of strategic 

mineral resources, and the early days of the environmental 

movement. Today, there is no cold war, we have a steady 

global supply of resources, there is no concern about shortages 

(at least in the near term), and there are heightened concerns 

about the environment and sustainable development. Growing materials use, increasing population, and rising living 

standards are renewing discussions of global priorities and 

confronting us with difficult choices. How do we assure that 

we can obtain necessary nonrenewable resources, while minimizing the impact on the environment?

In the current global economy, there generally is an 

adequate supply of most metals. Nevertheless, we need to 

maintain a balance that will sustain both the global economy 

and the global environment. Sometimes, the choice of where to 

develop comes with the negative consequences of infrastructure 

development and habitat fragmentation and the subsequent 

impacts on population, fauna, and flora. A global mineral 

resource assessment that provides a measure of the distribution 

and amount of both known and undiscovered mineral resources 

can assist in making livable choices regarding minerals development and environmental protection. For example, comparison of 

the distribution of specific mineral resources, both known and 

undiscovered, with measures of biodiversity can help identify 

areas where minerals exploitation could most affect ecosystem 

health. The Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit organization 

Conservation International (CI) has identified biodiversity 

hotspots. These areas contain an inordinately large concentration of endemic species and are at the greatest risk for habitat 

loss. CI recently identified the 25 highest priority hotspots 

that together contain as endemics 44 percent of the total plant 

species and 35 percent of all known species of birds, mammals, reptiles, and amphibians. Importantly, the undisturbed 

1

U.S. Geological Survey, 954 National Center, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, 

Reston, VA 20192–0002, U.S.A. (e-mail: cunningham@usgs.gov).

part of the hotspot habitat is only 1.4 percent of the Earth’s land 

surface. These hotspots are defined and documented in the book 

“Hotspots—Earth’s Biologically Richest and Most Endangered 

Terrestrial Ecoregions” (Mittermeier and others, 1999) and in a 

cover article in “Nature” (Myers and others, 2000). A simplified 

version of the hotspot-areas map (Conservation International, 

2000) is shown in figure 1.

A challenge for society is to recognize and deal with 

overlaps that will occur between the distribution of ecological hotspots and needed mineral resources. To illustrate both 

sides of this issue, we consider two elements important to 

the global economy, but with contrasting sources: tin and 

chromium. Much of the commodity information used in this 

paper is from a series of reports by the International Strategic 

Minerals Inventory group published in U.S. Geological Survey 

(USGS) Circular 930 (DeYoung and others, 1984; Sutphin and 

others, 1990) and from annual USGS mineral summaries such 

as “Mineral Commodity Summaries 2000” (U.S. Geological 

Survey, 2000).

Chromium

The principal use of chromium is for the production of 

stainless steel and superalloys. There is no adequate substitute 

for it. Chromite is the only mineral mined for chromium, and 

it occurs in a variety of geologic settings. In 1999, the United 

States net import reliance on chromium was 80 percent (Papp, 

2000), with the remainder of U.S. consumption supplied 

by recycling. India, Kazakhstan, South Africa, and Turkey 

produce 80 percent of the world production of chromite ore. 

South Africa provides over 40 percent of the world production. Brazil and Cuba currently are the only producers in the 

Western Hemisphere (Papp, 2000). Figure 2 shows the global 

distribution and relative sizes of known chromium sources. 

Comparing these data to the locations of biodiversity hotspots 

in the same figure indicates that there is little spatial overlap. 

Deposits that are present in Madagascar, the Philippines, 

Cuba, Greece, and Turkey are small and not likely to see 

major development. No large chromium deposits are known in 

the 25 biodiversity hotspots, and thus decisions as to where to 

mine chromite may be based primarily on other factors, such 

as economics, politics, and local infrastructure issues.
32 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Tin

Tin is used extensively for solder in the modern electronics industry, for plumbing in the building trades, and for 

chemical products. It also is used for cans and containers 

because of its compatibility with human physiology. Tin is 

generally nontoxic, is corrosion resistant, and eventually is 

biodegradable. Although the beverage industry dominates the 

container market and uses aluminum cans, about a quarter of 

all cans are tin-plated steel. World consumption of tin is about 

250,000 metric tons per annum. The United States uses 40,000 

metric tons per annum of tin, more than any other country, 

with about a quarter of it from recycling.

Tin resources are abundant. The world mines over 200,000 

metric tons per annum and makes up the difference between this 

and total consumption from recycling and stockpiles. Major tin 

Figure 1. Map of biodiversity hotspots. Modified from Conservation International (2000); used with permission.

Hotspots in 2000

Hotspot area

Antarctica

Figure 2. Chromium sources plotted on a map of biodiversity hotspots. Base map modified from Conservation International (2000); used 

with permission. Chromium deposits primarily modified from DeYoung and others (1984).

Perm district, 

Russia

Elijarvi district, 

Finland

Kempirsai district, 

Kazakhstan

Turkey

Albania

Greece Iran

Sudan

Camaguey and 

Oriente

Provinces, Cuba

Stillwater

Complex,

U.S.A.

Bird River 

Sill, Canada Fiskenaesset

area, Greenland

Campo Formoso 

district, Brazil

India

Madagascar

Antarctica

Great Dyke, 

Zimbabwe

Bushveld Complex, 

South Africa

Philippines

Coobina deposit, 

Australia Madang district, 

Papua New Guinea

Hotspot areas

Small

Large

Chromium deposits

Hotspots in 2000
producers are China, Indonesia, Peru, Brazil, and Bolivia (fig. 

3; Carlin, 2000). The United States has a Government stockpile 

of 80,000 metric tons, from which it sells 12,000 metric tons 

per annum. The United States currently has no need to mine the 

metal. In fact, industrial market economy countries consume 

about three-quarters of the world’s tin produced each year, while 

low- and middle-income economy countries account for 90 

percent of the world’s tin production.

Mineral deposits occur nonuniformly across the Earth’s 

surface, where for geologic reasons, they tend to form in clusters. Almost all tin production has been from similar mineral 

deposits within specific areas (fig. 3). Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that more production in the future, and many 

of the new discoveries, will be from these same areas. The 

juxtaposition of tin sources with the biodiversity hotspots is 

shown in figure 3. Many of the world’s largest tin deposits and 

known resources occur within the biodiversity hotspots. There 

is no a priori geologic or biologic reason that there should be 

such a correspondence in space between known tin deposits 

and biodiversity hotspots, but the coincidence is striking.

A smaller number of tin deposits, such as those in eastern 

Australia, Zimbabwe, and Japan, are well away from designated 

hotspots. Other tin deposits, such as those in Cornwall, U.K., 

and Alaska, U.S.A., presently are not economic. However, the 

tin deposits of Indonesia, Thailand, and China are the largest in 

the world and are within or adjacent to the second richest hotspot for endemic plants. This hotspot also is well known for its 

mammal diversity and includes the habitat of two recently discovered species—the saola, one of the world’s rarest mammals, 

and the giant muntjac. Some major tin sources in Brazil, such as 

Pitinga in the western Amazon region, are in the largest tropical 

rain forest in the world. Smaller deposits to the east are within 

the hotspot where several unique mammal species occur, including the giant anteater and the maned wolf. The Greenbushes 

tin deposit in southwestern Australia is within a hotspot rich in 

endemic plants, reptiles, and marsupial mammals. The large tin 

deposits of South Africa are in a hotspot noted for having the 

greatest concentration of nontropical plant species in the world.

Some of the greatest impacts of mining can come from the 

ancillary effects of infrastructure development, and the effects have 

both positive and negative aspects. Habitat fragmentation, such as 

new roads associated with development, farms developed as a result 

of improved access, or denuded forests that supply fuel and lumber 

to the developing mining industry, has a major negative effect on 

biodiversity. On the other hand, mining can also bring jobs to a 

region, which increases the standard of living and improves medical care, sanitation, transportation, and communication.

Conclusion

In a global economy, environmental concerns will exert a 

growing influence on the complex choices that must be made with 

regard to exploration and exploitation of metallic, and nonmetallic, 

nonrenewable resources. Wise stewardship of our global resources 

should rely upon informed decisions related to alternative sources, 

recycling, and alternative substitutions. The bottom line is that a 

global assessment of mineral resources will help all countries better 

understand the regional and global implications of decisions they 

make regarding minerals development and other land uses.

Figure 3. Tin sources plotted on a map of biodiversity hotspots. Base map modified from Conservation International (2000); used with 

permission. Tin deposits primarily modified from Sutphin and others (1990).

Lost River 

district,

U.S.A. East

Kemptville,

Canada

Pitinga,

Brazil

Rhodia-Espeng,

Brazil

C75-

Garimpo,

Brazil

San Rafael 

mine, Peru

Bolivia

central

region

Pirquitas,

Argentina

Brascan

Group,

Brazil

Serra Blanco, 

Brazil

Uis tin 

mine,

Namibia

Van Roois 

Vley, 

South

Africa

Kuils River, 

South Africa

Antarctica

Kamativi,

Zimbabwe

Kivu, Congo Jos

Plateau,

Nigeria

Union tin mine, 

South Africa

NevesCorvo mine, 

Portugal

South Crofty 

mine, U.K.

Gejiu,

China

Dachang,

China

Thailand

Mawchi

mine,

Burma

Tenasserim 

Valley, Burma

Malaysian

gravel pumps

Timah 

(Bangka),

Indonesia

Greenbushes,

Australia

Soviet southern 

regions

Soviet northern 

regions

Akenobe

mine, Japan

Suzuyama

mine, Japan

Collingwood,

Australia

Taronga, 

Australia

Ardlethan,

Australia

Doradilla,

Australia

Renison,

Australia

Hotspot areas

Small

Large

Tin deposits

Hotspots in 2000

Minerals, Biodiversity, and Choices  33
34  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Acknowledgments

Data on biodiversity hotspots were provided by Conservation International. The U.S. Geological Survey gratefully 

acknowledges the participation of Conservation International 

in the 2000 IUGS/UNESCO Workshop on Deposit Modeling, 

Mineral Resource Assessment, and Their Role in Sustainable 

Development. Paul Barton, Lief Horwitz, and Art Schultz of 

the U.S. Geological Survey and Penny Flick Langhammer of 

Conservation International contributed helpful reviews.

References Cited

Carlin, J.F., Jr., 2000, Tin, in Mineral commodity summaries 

2000: Reston, Va., U.S. Geological Survey, p. 176–177. 

(Also available online at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/

pubs/commodity/tin/660300.pdf.)

Conservation International, 2000, Map of biodiversity hotspots—Earth’s biologically richest and most endangered 

terrestrial ecoregions: Washington, D.C., Conservation 

International, 1 sheet, scale 1:38,485,000.

DeYoung, J.H., Jr., Lee, M.P., and Lipin, B.R., 1984, International strategic minerals inventory summary report—

Chromium: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 930–B, 41 p.

Mittermeier, R.A., Myers, Norman, Robles Gil, Patricio, and 

Mittermeier, C.G., 1999, Hotspots—Earth’s biologically 

richest and most endangered terrestrial ecoregions: Mexico 

City, Agrupacíon Sierra Madre, S.C., and Conservation 

International, 430 p.

Myers, Norman, Mittermeier, R.A., Mittermeier, C.G., da 

Fonseca, G.A.B., and Kent, Jennifer, 2000, Biodiversity 

hotspots for conservation priorities: Nature, v. 403, February 24, 2000, p. 853–858.

Papp, J.F., 2000, Chromium, in Mineral commodity summaries 2000: Reston, Va., U.S. Geological Survey, p. 48–49. 

(Also available online at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/

pubs/commodity/chromium/180300.pdf.)

Sutphin, D.M., Sabin, A.E., and Reed, B.L., 1990, International strategic minerals inventory summary report—Tin: 

U.S. Geological Survey Circular 930–J, 52 p.

U.S. Geological Survey, 2000, Mineral commodity summaries 

2000: Reston, Va., U.S. Geological Survey, 197 p. (Also 

available online at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/

mcs/2000/mcs2000.pdf.)
Introduction

The link between sustainable development and nonrenewable resources appears at first glance to be inconsistent, 

because nonrenewable resources are finite. The concept of 

sustainable development has generated a great deal of debate 

and spawned a multitude of definitions since it was put forward by Malthus (1798) about 200 years ago. He argued that 

the fixed land base could not sustain the continuing growth in 

human population and, if people did not restrain their reproduction, the population would be controlled by war, pestilence, and starvation. This early thinking evolved to what we 

now accept as the fundamental premise of sustainable development as stated by the World Commission on Environment 

and Development (Brundtland, 1987, p. 8)—“development 

that meets the needs of the present without compromising the 

ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” The 

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) believes 

that development must have a human face and coined the 

term “sustainable human development.” Its mission, therefore, is to help countries in their efforts to achieve sustainable human development by assisting them to build their 

capacity to design and carry out development programs in 

poverty eradication, employment creation and sustainable 

livelihoods, the empowerment of women, and the protection 

and regeneration of the environment, giving first priority to 

poverty eradication.

The idea of sustainable development in the context of 

nonrenewable resources, in particular mineral resources, may 

seem a contradiction if a one-dimensional view is taken. Mineral resource development is unsustainable only if we ignore 

the complex interaction of economic growth, social development, and the environment. It is not always self-evident that 

our present modern technological society requires an ongoing supply of minerals. Mineral production, although having 

environmental impacts, is and will continue to be an essential 

part of ensuring the economic well-being of our society. To 

satisfy the present global mineral needs without compromising the mineral resource needs of future generations, it is 

imperative that we approach mineral resource development 

within a holistic framework comprising all components of 

the complex interaction between humans and the ecosystem 

on which they depend. By using nonrenewable resources for 

capital formation that will be reinvested in social, economic, 

and environmental activities, the concept of sustainability and 

mineral resource development would no longer seem to be a 

contradiction.

Since the establishment of the UNDP in 1965, the organization has supported mineral resources development activities, 

including exploration, feasibility studies, capacity building, and 

institutional strengthening of mining departments in developing countries. As a result of these activities, several important 

mineral deposits were discovered, including one of its earliest 

and largest discoveries, the Baja la Alumbrera copper deposit 

in Argentina. Today, UNDP’s direct involvement in the mineral sector is minimal, mainly because it is felt that this activity should be left to the private sector. However, the wealth of 

information that resides within UNDP archives could contribute 

to the global assessment of future sources of mineral supplies. A 

global mineral resource assessment is seen as a prerequisite to 

adequate planning for the sustainable use of these nonrenewable 

resources and as a contribution to the achievement of UNDP’s 

overarching goal of poverty eradication.

This paper discusses the evolution of the concept of 

sustainable development and the need to treat mineral resource 

development as one component in a complex interaction 

between humans and their environment. UNDP’s approach 

and contribution to fostering an enabling environment for 

global mineral resource development within the framework of 

sustainable human development are presented.

Sustainable Development

Evolution of the Concept

The concept of sustainable development can be traced 

back to the 18th century, when there was concern that the 

limited amount of land and resources would retard economic 

growth. Tahvonen (2000) traced the development of economic 

thought on sustainability and scarcity of natural resources by 

citing four main periods, as follows.

Sustainable Development and Nonrenewable Resources—

A Multilateral Perspective

By George A. Nooten1

1

Former Officer-in-Charge, United Nations Revolving Fund for Natural 

Resources Exploration, New York, N.Y., U.S.A. (e-mail: vanooten@msn.com).
36  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

The 1st period

1798 Thomas Malthus (1798) believed that the fixed 

land base could not sustain the continuing 

growth of human population. He predicted that, 

if humankind did not make the moral decision 

to control the increasing number of people on 

the planet, populations would be held in check 

by war, pestilence, or starvation.

1862 John Stuart Mill (1862) emphasized that, while 

the limited amount of natural resources could in 

principle constrain increases in production, this 

limit would not be reached in any country over 

any meaningful timeframe.

The 2d period

1890–1920 The U.S. conservation movement in its doctrine 

stated that economic growth has clear physical 

boundaries that cannot be avoided by technological 

development. Too rapid use of nonrenewable 

resources was considered a major threat to future 

generations. It was argued that, the lower the use of 

nonrenewable resources, the better.

1931 Studies by Hotelling (1931) proposed a 

theoretical model in which social well-being 

from nonrenewable resources was maximized 

over an infinitely long time period.

1963 Barnett and Morse (1963) questioned the 

pessimistic Malthusian view and the basic 

premises of the conservation movement. They 

found that, on the basis of price and cost time 

series data on minerals, agriculture, and renewable 

resources, (1) the price and production costs had 

fallen or remained constant during the period 

1870–1957 and (2) only the price level of forestry 

had shown an upward trend. These findings 

were explained by technological development, 

which produced substitutes for scarce resources, 

decreased extraction costs of minerals, and 

expanded the size of economic reserves.

The 3d period

1972 The “Limits to Growth” report for the Club of 

Rome by Meadows and others (1972), using 

the modeling method called “systems analysis,” 

predicted that the future world population level, 

food production, and industrialization would first 

grow exponentially but then collapse during the 

next century. The collapse would occur because 

the world economy would reach its physical 

limits in terms of nonrenewable resources, 

agricultural production, and excessive pollution. 

The study predicted that 11 vital minerals could 

be exhausted before the end of 2000.

1977 Wassily Leontief and others (1977), on 

request by the United Nations, applied equally 

pessimistic assumptions as the “Limits to 

Growth” report, except that they took into 

account that demand may respond to higher 

prices. Their results showed that only two 

minerals were in danger of being exhausted.

The 4th period

After 1974 Presustainability from 1974 onward.—Two 

economists, Partha Dasgupta and Geoffrey 

Heal (1974), asked whether an economy can 

maintain a positive consumption level forever, 

given that there is no technical development 

and that the production of commodities is 

possible only by using limited nonrenewable 

resources like oil. Their analysis revealed that it 

is possible to maintain a positive consumption 

level only if capital can be substituted for 

nonrenewable resources without technical 

difficulties.

The concept of sustainable development has evolved 

and gained global recognition since the report by the World 

Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland, 

1987) and the United Nations Conference on Environment 

and Development in 1992. The concept is complex, requiring 

a delicate balance among economic growth, environmental 

protection, and social development to secure the well-being of 

the increasing population on a sustainable basis.

Defining Sustainable Development

The complexity of sustainable development has spawned 

a myriad of definitions. The most quoted definition is by the 

World Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland, 1987, p. 8), which says that sustainable development 

is “development that meets the needs of the present without 

compromising the ability of future generations to meet their 

own needs.” The concept is further elaborated therein by the 

statement, “In essence, sustainable development is a process of 

change in which the exploitation of resources, the direction of 

investments, the orientation of technological development, and 

institutional change are all in harmony and enhance both current 

and future potential to meet human needs and aspirations.”

In 1991, “Caring for the Earth—A Strategy for Sustainable Living,” published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, United Nations 

Environment Programme, and World Wide Fund for Nature 

(Munro and Holdgate, 1991), defined sustainable development 

as, “improving the quality of human life while living within 

the carrying capacity of supporting ecosystems.” The Australia Ecologically Sustainable Development Working Group on 

Mining (1991) defined sustainable development as, “ensuring 

that the mineral raw materials needs of society are met, with-
out compromising the ability either of future societies to meet 

their needs, or of the natural environment to sustain indefinitely the quality of environmental services (such as climate 

systems), biological diversity, and ecological integrity.”

UNDP advocates sustainable human development, which 

is an approach that seeks to expand choices for all people—

women, men and children, current and future generations—

while protecting the natural systems on which all life depends. 

Moving away from a narrow, economy-centered approach to 

development, sustainable human development places people 

at the core and views humans as both a means and an end of 

development. Thus, sustainable human development aims 

to eliminate poverty, promote human dignity and rights, and 

provide equitable opportunities for all.

In addition to the several definitions of sustainable development, the concept is elaborated in principles 1, 4, 5, and 8 of 

the Rio Declaration (United Nations, 1992), as follows:

Principle 1. Human beings are at the center of concerns for 

sustainable development. They are entitled to 

a healthy and productive life in harmony with 

nature.

Principle 4. In order to achieve sustainable development, 

environmental protection shall constitute an 

integral part of the development process and 

cannot be considered in isolation from it.

Principle 5. All States and all people shall cooperate in 

the essential task of eradicating poverty as 

an indispensable requirement for sustainable 

development, in order to decrease the 

disparities in standards of living and better 

meet the needs of the majority of the people of 

the world.

Principle 8. To achieve sustainable development and a 

higher quality of life for all people, States 

should reduce and eliminate unsustainable 

patterns of production and consumption and 

promote appropriate demographic policies.

Although several definitions exist, the three main elements—economic growth, social responsibility, and environment and natural resource conservation—are persistent 

in the definitions of sustainable development. There is an 

unquestionable global acceptance of the need for all nations 

to embrace the concept of sustainable development, which 

upholds the universal values of fulfilling basic needs and 

access to good health, wealth, dignity, knowledge, justice, 

equity, and peace.

Nonrenewable Resources

At first glance, a nonrenewable resource seems to be 

incompatible with sustainable development. This is true 

because the concept of a nonrenewable resource implies 

that, once a resource is used, since it cannot reproduce itself, 

sustainability is not possible. This one-dimensional view of 

nonrenewable resources seems to support the widely held 

view that the extractive industries cannot be supportive of the 

concept of sustainable development. A closer examination of 

the issue, however, reveals a different perspective.

Nonrenewable resources, in particular mineral resources, 

are necessary for the economic well-being of our societies. 

It is not always self-evident that without a supply of mineral 

products our living standards will be drastically reduced and 

the impact on the global economy will be disastrous. The 

modern conveniences, such as automobiles, building and transportation infrastructure, fertilizers for increased food production, television sets, computers, solar panels, aircraft, medical 

diagnostic and treatment methods and instruments, farming 

equipment, and cooking utensils, require mineral products. 

It is a truism that what is not grown must be mined. To have 

access to mineral resources, their extraction from the Earth 

and the environmental impacts associated with this activity are 

unavoidable.

In limiting the concept of nonrenewability to exhaustion 

and depletion in the case of mineral resources, we are ignoring 

the impact of technology. Advances in technology, new mineral discoveries, and limits on the material riches desired by 

our societies can minimize the possibility for exhaustion and 

depletion of the Earth’s recoverable mineral supply. Technology provides the possibility of finding ways to renew the supply of minerals through advances in exploration techniques, 

extraction processes, recycling, and substitution. In the case of 

some resources we think of as renewable, such as biological 

resources, the reality is that some bird and fish species have 

become extinct and, therefore, also can be considered nonrenewable. In viewing mineral resource depletion at the scale of 

individual mine sites, the limited perspective of nonrenewability can apply; on a global scale, however, given the untapped 

resources of the oceans and deeper parts of the Earth’s crust, 

we should consider a broader view of nonrenewability.

Given the important role that minerals play in our societies, it is necessary to view mineral development as one of the 

important components of continuing economic growth without 

impairing the capacity of future generations to enjoy the same 

or a better standard of living. Sustainability requires economic 

growth, environmental protection of our ecosystem, and social 

responsibility. The dynamic interplay of these three components is a prerequisite for achieving the goals of sustainability. 

Mineral development can be viewed as supporting the concept 

of sustainable development if the extraction of minerals takes 

place in a manner that minimizes the environmental impacts; 

equitably shares the benefits from the new wealth created; 

utilizes the capital obtained to provide adequate healthcare, 

education, and other social services; and reduces the level of 

waste through recycling and improved technologies to optimize recoveries.

In considering national and international mineral supplies, it is necessary to recognize the dynamic characteristics 

Sustainable Development and Nonrenewable Resources­—A Multilateral Perspective  37
38  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

of the minerals industry and to take into account the other 

factors apart from the economic and geologic ones. It is well 

accepted that the environmental and sociocultural aspects must 

be an integral part of the way the minerals industry operates.

Sustainability of Mineral Supply

Although some authors predicted that the world would run 

out of some minerals, thus contributing to constrained economic 

growth, this pessimistic prediction has failed to materialize 

despite increasing consumption and population growth. The 

main reason for this failure was that projections of supply and 

demand models failed to take into account the dynamic nature 

of the minerals industry. Some minerals in use today were not 

in use 50 years ago, while others have been substituted for by 

plastics, composites, and other materials. For example, we are 

seeing an increased use of optical fiber replacing copper in the 

communications industry. It is possible that with new technologies the future uses of some minerals will require reduced 

quantities of the mineral raw material to be mined.

Dzioubinski and Chipman (1999) presented an overview 

of the trends in production and consumption of copper, lead, 

and aluminum. They found that there will be no shortage of 

copper due to depletion of ore in the foreseeable future. The 

reserve base of copper will last for more than 40 years, and 

copper resources for more than 105 years. For lead, the reserve 

base is sufficient for 40 years, and identified resources for 500 

years. For aluminum production, the primary raw material 

is bauxite. Reserves of bauxite will last for about 100 years, 

and estimated resources between 170 and 200 years. As can 

be seen, there is no evidence that these or other nonrenewable resources will be scarce due to extraction and depletion 

in the medium to long term. As technologies emerge for the 

development of resource substitutes, recycling methods, and 

improved exploration and mining methodologies, together 

with the potential for discovery of minerals not yet known, 

global mineral supply is in no danger of becoming scarce due 

to depletion of mineral resources.

UNDP’s Contribution and Role

Mineral exploration activities in the developing world 

have been supported by the United Nations (U.N.) and in 

particular by the UNDP for more than 40 years. This support 

was in recognition that the mineral wealth of a country was an 

engine of economic growth. The U.N. programs covered many 

aspects of mineral resource development in the developing 

countries, including the following:

Institutional strengthening of geological surveys and mineral resource departments and ministries.

Training of nationals in all fields of mineral resources.

1.

2.

Mineral exploration using geochemical prospecting, 

airborne and ground geophysics, analytical chemistry, and 

assaying.

Drilling.

Economic feasibility studies.

Mining and mineral processing—establishing mining and 

metallurgical institutes.

Mining legislation.

Exploration results have been positive in many of the 

exploration programs undertaken by UNDP. The discovery 

of the Cerro Petaquilla porphyry copper deposit in Panama 

(1965–71) attracted international mining companies that began 

exploration in Panama and neighboring countries for similar 

deposits in the circumpacific orogenic belt in the Americas. 

In Mexico, UNDP projects led to the discovery of La Caridad porphyry copper deposit and the Las Truchas iron ore 

deposit. In Asia, discoveries include the Mamut porphyry 

copper deposit in Sabah, Malaysia; offshore tin in Indonesia; 

and the Sar Chesmeh copper deposit in Iran. In Africa, several 

deposits were found by UNDP mineral exploration programs; 

notably, lateritic nickel in Burundi and Tanzania, iron ore in 

Guinea, and gold in Burkina Faso.

Rapidly changing external and internal factors have 

necessitated a change in focus of the activities of the UNDP. 

Externally, there have been major global political changes 

such as the breakup of the Soviet Union. Several armed 

conflicts in the developing world have created a major refugee crisis requiring the intervention of U.N. peacekeeping 

teams. There have been important social changes, such as the 

emergence of global movements regarding women and indigenous people and regarding environmental and human rights. 

Internally, major reforms of the organization have taken place, 

resulting in the reorientation of programs to respond to the 

demands of these dramatic changes. The current development 

approach embodies all the elements of sustainable development, with a major focus on poverty elimination.

In response to the many changes, mineral exploration 

activities by UNDP declined and were replaced by an emphasis on processing and manufacturing activities. Examples of 

this new direction are (1) providing advice to governments in 

reforming their mining codes and their fiscal regimes, (2) providing policy advice in environmental matters, (3) promoting 

women’s issues, and (4) providing assistance in the transformation of informal small-scale mining to a formal sector.

The stated mission of UNDP is to contribute to halving 

world poverty by 2015. To achieve this goal, the emphasis 

is on pro-poor and sustainable growth. It is recognized that 

sustained poverty reduction requires socially, politically, and 

environmentally sustained economic growth in all countries. 

The present activities in the natural resource sector focus on 

poverty reduction strategies, and because the private sector 

is better positioned to play a key role in the mineral sector, 

UNDP now concentrates on issues pertaining to good governance, capacity building, and the strengthening of institutions. 

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.
In the natural resources management cluster, emphasis is 

placed on water, sustainable agriculture and food security, and 

renewable energy and energy policy.

Although UNDP no longer is directly involved in mineral 

exploration activities, it continues to contribute to the mineral 

sector through implementation of the sustainable livelihoods (SL) 

approach to artisanal mining. As one of UNDP’s five corporate 

mandates, SL offers both a conceptual and a programming framework for poverty reduction in a sustainable manner. Conceptually, 

livelihoods connote the means, activities, entitlements, and assets 

by which people make a living. Assets, in this particular context, 

are defined as not only natural or biological (that is, land, water, 

minerals, common-property resources, flora, fauna) but also 

social (that is, community, family, social networks, participation, 

empowerment), human (that is, knowledge creation by skills), 

and physical (that is, roads, markets, clinics, schools, bridges). 

The sustainable livelihood approach could be instrumental in tapping the vitality of mining to improve community livelihoods and 

contribute to poverty eradication.

UNRFNRE’s Role in Sustainable 

Development

In 1973, the U.N. Revolving Fund for Natural Resources 

Exploration (UNRFNRE) was established to respond to fears 

expressed about the future scarcity of mineral supply. The 

revolving fund acted as a catalyst in mineral resource development through its executing and financing mechanism, which 

promoted self-reliance and cooperation among developing 

countries. The creation of the fund was a cooperative attempt 

by the world community to expand the inventory of mineral 

resources at mankind’s disposal for the future. Voluntary contributions made by donors both from developing and developed 

countries provided the high-risk capital for mineral exploration 

at no cost to the recipient governments. The only requirement 

was that, in the event that the fund was successful in discovering 

an economic mineral deposit that went into production, the government was obligated to make replenishment payments to the 

fund. The replenishment rate was 2 percent (1 percent for least 

developed countries) of the gross value of annual production 

for a period of 15 years, with a ceiling of 10 times the amount 

of the cost of exploration incurred by the fund. It was estimated 

that, after 25 years, the fund would be self-sustaining and not 

dependent on contributions from donors. The replenishment 

payments would be the pool of high-risk capital for developing 

countries to utilize for their mineral exploration activities. In this 

way, countries would share the risk and be self-reliant in financing their mineral exploration activities.

During its 26 years of existence, UNRFNRE has assisted 

developing countries to locate and define the economic mineral deposits within their borders. With a total expenditure 

of nearly US$100 million, the fund has evaluated over 100 

mineral prospects, carried out 34 mineral exploration projects, 

and discovered 10 economic mineral deposits with an in-place 

value of approximately US$3.4 billion. To date, deposits of 

gold in Peru and Ecuador and chromite in the Philippines have 

been mined. On August 3, 2000, one of the fund’s projects, the 

Geita, Tanzania, gold mine, was officially opened; it will be 

producing 500,000 ounces of gold annually from a reserve of 

5 million ounces and a resource of 12 million ounces.

The changed focus of UNDP to concentrate on processing and manufacturing activities, and the decision to phase out 

the activities of the fund by the end of 2000, brings an end to 

the mineral exploration activities within the UNDP. It is hoped 

that the new wealth created by the fund’s discoveries will be 

reinvested in social, economic, and environmental activities in 

line with sustainable development objectives.

Conclusions

Nonrenewable resource development and sustainable 

human development are inextricably linked, complementary, and multidimensional. Development is unsustainable if 

equity does not exist or where large numbers of people live in 

abject and degrading poverty. As a development organization, 

UNDP supports the development of national capacity in the 

participating countries through sustainable human development activities. The approach is holistic and multidimensional, 

recognizing the mutual dependency and complementary nature 

of the social, economic, environmental, cultural, civil, and 

political dimensions of development.

Although UNDP and UNRFNRE will no longer engage 

directly in mineral exploration activities, contributions to the 

mineral sector will continue through UNDP’s four main areas of 

sustainable human development programming—(1) eliminating 

poverty and implementing sustainable livelihoods, (2) promoting the advancement of women, (3) protecting and regenerating 

the environment, and (4) developing capacity for good governance. All of these areas have dimensions pivotal to the development of nonrenewable resources in a sustainable manner.

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Earth—A strategy for sustainable living: Gland, Switzerland, International Union for Conservation of Nature and 

Natural Resources, United Nations Environment Programme, and World Wide Fund for Nature, 227 p. (Also 

available online at http://coombs.anu.edu.au/~vern/caring/

caring.html; accessed January 16, 2003.)

Tahvonen, Olli, 2000, Economic sustainability and scarcity of 

natural resources—A brief historical review: Washington, 

D.C., Resources for the Future, 13 p., available online at 

http://www.rff.org/Documents/RFF-IB-00-tahvonen.pdf.

United Nations, 1992, Report of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development—Annex I, Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, Rio de Janeiro: 

New York, United Nations, 5 p., available online at 

http://www.un.org/documents/ga/conf151/

aconf15126-1annex1.htm. (Accessed January 16, 2003.)
Mineral Resources Information and Socioeconomic Development

By Gotthard Walser1

The contribution of mining to sustainable development 

needs to be considered in terms of economic and technical 

viability, ecological sustainability, and social equity. Governments, mining companies, and local communities, as well, 

must work and cooperate on these issues through the different 

stages of a mining project and over a considerable time span, 

extending from exploration to mine operation and to postmine 

closure. As shown by World Bank’s experience in mining 

sector development in recent years, such principles have to 

be taken into account even at the very early stages of regional 

mineral resources assessment.

Sustainable resource use planning requires that areas of 

mineral potential be evaluated in the context of existing and 

alternative land use options, integrating social, environmental, 

cultural, and economic factors. Civil society and governments 

are increasingly aware that minerals form only one component 

of a country’s resources. An integrated approach that calls 

for a strategic and participatory process of analysis, debate, 

capacity strengthening, planning, and action, involving all 

stakeholders, including local communities, is the only way 

to optimize mineral resources exploitation from a sustainable 

development point of view and to identify and avoid potential 

conflicts in land use. To develop such a process in a rational 

1

World Bank Group, Mining Department, Washington, D.C.

and fair manner inevitably requires accurate data depicting the 

available resource base, as well as the transparent and open 

sharing and coordination of multiuser information.

Ensuring the availability of strategic information with 

respect to mineral resources constitutes one of the main 

mandates of most national geological survey organizations. 

The World Bank long has recognized the importance of 

geological surveys as “enablers” to provide the required data 

to make well-informed decisions regarding sustainable land 

and resource use and, within the framework of mining sector reforms, has provided loans to development projects that 

include the strengthening of these institutions, the collation 

and dissemination of regional multidisciplinary geoscientific 

data, and the development of information and management 

systems. The availability of modern and reliable geoscientific 

data not only enhances the capacity to assess and manage 

mineral resources but also is applicable to agriculture, forestry, 

environmental and health risk analysis, conservation, and land 

use planning.

A recent and particularly illustrative case history is represented by the development in Ecuador of such an integrated 

geoscientific database by the National Directorate of Geology, 

with the assistance of the British Geological Survey. Other 

examples include Argentina, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Mozambique, and Papua New Guinea.
Economics and Environment as Factors of Sustainable Development of 

Siberian Mineral Resources

By N.L. Dobretsov,1 A.V. Kanygin,1 and A.E. Kontorovich1

The economic problems of Siberia derive from the fact 

that, although the region has rich natural resources of great 

importance to the mining and petroleum industries, development is hampered by the unfavorable natural and climatic 

conditions of their locations and the poorly developed transportation systems and other infrastructure. In addition, the 

region has an imbalance between the mining and processing 

branches of the raw materials industry. This imbalance in 

general significantly decreases the resources’ profitability and 

requires large initial capital investments to bring new deposits 

into production.

Social problems in Siberia are to a large extent the result 

of the former two factors (natural climatic and economic) and 

the historical social disparity between Siberia and the European parts of Russia. This disparity has been responsible for 

unfavorable demographic trends in the region. The social and 

economic problems of the northern and eastern regions of 

Siberia are further complicated by the fact that these regions 

require expensive measures for protection and preservation of 

natural environments and for protection of aboriginal populations, with their specific cultural adaptation to extreme natural 

conditions.

Politically, effective use of the strategically important 

natural resources of Siberia, particularly its energy resources, 

is one of the most important factors for addressing the current economic crisis for Russia, stabilizing its economy, and 

integrating with the world-market-based economic system. 

We place particular emphasis on the development of energy 

resources because of their importance to basic macroeconomic 

indices. As early as the beginning of the 1970s, Dennis L. 

Meadows and a group from the Club of Rome, while examining possible scenarios of world development at the close of the 

20th and beginning of the 21st century, found through analysis 

of statistical data that there is a linear relation between the per 

capita gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption 

in industrialized countries (Meadows and others, 1972; see fig. 

3 of this paper). Deviations from this linear relation can result 

from differences in climate, local prices of energy resources, 

and the level of contribution of heavy industry to the economy 

of countries.

Recently, in considering the development of Russia’s 

energy strategy for the 21st century, Kontorovich and others 

(1999a) analyzed world economic data from the last three 

1

United Institute of Geology, Geophysics and Mineralogy, Siberian Branch 

of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia.

Introduction

Siberia is one of the major regions of the world whose 

energy and mineral resources will be important during the 

21st century for industrial development not only of Russia but 

also of many other countries, particularly in Europe and the 

Asia-Pacific region. Siberia has some of the largest explored 

and potential reserves of energy raw materials in the world 

(gas, oil, coal, gas hydrates), as well as major concentrations 

of nickel, cobalt, platinum-group metals, diamonds, rare earth 

elements, helium, agricultural minerals, and many other types 

of mineral raw materials. These resources are mainly concentrated in Siberia’s northern and eastern regions, commonly in 

very remote areas. Many of these deposits were discovered 

only in recent decades and have yet to be developed. It is predicted that further significant resources will be discovered in 

Siberia given the generally low levels of exploration that have 

been conducted in regions that have good geologic potential 

for undiscovered resources. Also, discoveries have been made 

of new, previously unknown genetic types of deposits with 

unique combinations of useful mineral commodities (figs. 1

and 2). In addition, the increasing deficiency of freshwater 

globally makes the large reserves in Siberian rivers and lakes 

of great importance for the future progress of mankind. Lake 

Baikal alone contains 20 percent of the world’s reserves of 

fresh surface water (excluding water in glaciers in Antarctica 

and Greenland).

Although Siberia contains significant concentrations of 

natural resources, economic development in the region faces 

many challenges related to natural climatic, social-demographic, 

infrastructure, and industrial factors. Siberia’s critical environmental, economic, social, and political problems were put on 

the agenda of the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The 

severity of natural climatic problems in Siberia is highlighted 

by the fact that most of the region (about 10 million square 

kilometers) experiences extreme climatic conditions, under 

which ecosystems are highly sensitive to anthropogenic loading, 

particularly in the areas of permafrost where most of the major 

extractable and promising resources are concentrated.
Figure 1. Map showing location of major oil and gas fields of the Russian Arctic, Siberia, and Far East.

4 North-Gilaevskoye3 Leningradskoye2 Rusanovskoye1 Shtokmanovskoye8 Vozheyskoye7 Anatoliya Titova6 Romana Trebsa5 Kharasaveyskoye

11 Kruzenshtemskoye

10 Yaregskoye

9 Usinskoye

12 Bovanenkovskoye16 Urengoyskoye15 Medvezhye14 Yamburgskoye19 Krasnoleninskoye18 East-Tarkosalinskoye17 Zapolyarnoye13 South-Tambeyskoye22 Pravdinsko-Salyumskoye21 Priobskoye20 Ai-Pimskoye

26 Vyingapurovskoye25 Povkhovskoye24 Tevlinsko-Ruskinskoye29 Samotlor28 Pokachevskoye27 Kharampurskoye23 Fedorovskoye

32 Òalakovskoye and YakkunYakhskoye

31 Vartovskoye and Sovetskoye30 Orekhovo-Ermakonskoye

33 Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye 

and Kuyumbinskoye

40 Srednebotuobinskoye36 Tolon-Mastakhskoye35 Sredneviluyskoye34 Sobinsko-Payginskoye39 Verkhneviluchanskoye38 Miminskoye37 Sobolokh-Nedzhelinskoye42 Verkhnechonskoye41 Chayandinskoye

44 Dulisminskoye

43 Òtalakanskoye46 Kovyktinskoye45 Yaraktinskoye49 Arkutun-Daginskoye48 Piltun-Astokhskoye47 Odoptu-More52 Katangli51 Veninskoye

50 Chaivo

54 Lunskoye

53 Nabli

gas and gas-condensateoil fieldsboundaries of petroleum provinces

1

2

3

4

5 6

8 7

9

10

11 1213

14

15 16 17

18

19 20

21

22

23 25

26 27

28

29

30

32

31

33

34

35

36

37

38 39

40

41 42

43

44

45

46

24

Moscow

Nizniy

Novgorod

Kazan’

Volgograd

Rostov

on Don

Indiga

Arkhangelsk

St. Petersburg

Samara

Murmansk

Irkutsk

Novosibirsk

Omsk

Ekaterinburg

Chelyabinsk

Ufa

Perm’

Tomsk

Krasnoyarsk

Maga

Khabarovsk

Vladivosto

Ulan-Ude

Chita

Salekhard

Vorkuta

Surgut

Lake Baikal

Khatanga-Viluy 

province

Lena-Tunguska 

province

Barentsevomorskaya

province

TimanoPechorskaya 

province

WestSiberian

province
Figure 2. Map showing location of major diamond, uranium (U), noble metal (Au, Pt), nonferrous metal (Pb-Zn, Al, Cu, Cu-Mo, Cu-Ni-Pt), and rare ear

Russian Arctic, Siberia, and Far East.

Khabarovs

Irkutsk Novosibirsk Omsk Ekaterinburg Chelyabinsk UfaPerm’ St. Petersburg MoscowNizniy Novgorod Kazan’ Samara Volgograd Rostov on Don Murmansk Salekhard Vorkuta Tomsk Krasnoyarsk Ulan-UdeChita 

Indiga Surgut

Au

Pb-Zn

Cu

Rare-earth

Al

Diamond

Cu-Mo

Cu-Ni-Pt

U

Dukat

Mayskoye

Nezhdaninskoye

Kyuchyus Ebeliakhskoye

Tompor

Udachnaya

Aikhal

Mir

Talnakh

Noril’sk

Olimpiadinskoye

Gorevskoye

Beloziminskoye

Zunkhalba

Kyuzil-Tashtyik

Ulug-Tanzek

Bayankolskoye

Sukhoy Log

Kholodninskoye

Udokan

Katuginskoye

Bugdaya

Strel’tsovskoye

Khiagdinskoye Zhireken

Rudniy Altai

Kiya-Shaltyr’

Goryachegorskoye

Sorskoye

Arkhangelskoye

Arkhangelsk

Ozernoye

Malyshevskoye

Turup’ inskoye

Syinirskoye (Al, K)
46  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

decades and confirmed that the production and effective consumption of energy are the most important general indicators of 

a country’s economic state. In addition, Kontorovich and others 

(1999a) found that an increase in the use of energy-saving technologies during recent decades accompanied a general increase 

in world per capita energy consumption and a growing disparity 

between countries in their level of energy efficiency (fig. 4).

GDP and levels of energy consumption and production 

were taken as basic factors in outlining a strategy for the longterm development of Russia’s economy and energy industry 

in a global context. Factors restricting resources were also 

considered, including the availability of measured and indicated reserves, the profitability of present-day production and 

future production technologies, areal distribution of resource 

fields, availability of transportation, and return on investment. 

In addition, restrictions on the rate of GDP growth, efficiency 

of energy consumption, balance of energy sources (the ratio 

of oil, gas, coal, nuclear, and hydropower energy resources), 

and estimated exports of energy resources to the countries of 

Europe and the Asia-Pacific region were considered.

On the basis of accepted scenarios of Russia’s economic 

development, energy consumption in the country is expected 

to grow from 850 million–870 million tons of standard fuel 

(tsf) in 2000 to 900 million–1,000 million tsf by 2010, 1,050 

million–1,130 million tsf by 2020, and 1,175 million–1,450 million tsf by 2030. It is very important that the increase in energy 

consumption is expected to be accompanied by accelerated 

growth in per capita GDP of 2.4 to 2.7 times during this period, 

with an accompanying 3.3 to 4.2 times increase in the efficiency 

of energy consumption. Oil and gas are expected to remain the 

dominant energy sources (greater than 70 percent of all energy 

production) until 2030, with some decrease in the percentage 

of oil and, correspondingly, growth in the percentage of gas. 

Comparative data on production of primary energy resources for 

Russia and other countries of the world are given in figures 5

and 6 (based on studies conducted under the direction of academician A.E. Kontorovich at the Institute of Petroleum Geology, 

Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences). Estimates of 

production levels of the main energy sources for Russia for the 

period 2000 to 2020 are presented in figure 7.

Siberian Energy Resources

The distribution of oil and gas resources in different 

regions of Russia (figs. 8 and 9) shows that Siberian energy 

resources will play a determining role in any scenario of 

Russia’s economic development in the 21st century and will 

markedly affect the energy supply of countries in Europe and 

the Asia-Pacific region, where these resources are limited. 

Presently, the main base of Russia’s oil and gas industry is 

in northern West Siberia, where 90 percent of the gas and 60 

percent of the oil are produced (25 percent and 10 percent of 

worldwide production, respectively). However, future development in this region is complicated because of a significant 

decline in identified reserves in the giant fields, resulting in 

increased well depths, decreased density of reserves, and 

declines in production rates. As a result of Russia’s economic 

turmoil, exploration activities in northern West Siberia have 

sharply decreased, and the rate of addition of new reserves has 

dropped behind the rate of production.

Canada

Sweden

Belgium

Great Britain

USSR

Switzerland Denmark

Australia

FRG

Norway France

Netherlands

Japan Finland

Italy

Israel

Venezuela

Argentina

Spain Greece

Mexico

Portugal

Iraq

South Korea

Russian Federation

Austria

USA

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

ENERGY CONSUMPTION, IN TONS OF STANDARD FUEL PER CAPITA

GDP (IN 1993 U.S. DOLLARS) PER CAPITA

14,000

16,000

18,000

Figure 3. Graph showing the relation between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the consumption of energy resources 

by countries of the world in 1968 (modified from P.L. Kapitsa). FRG, Federal Republic of Germany.
Economics and Environment as Factors of Sustainable Development of Siberian Mineral Resources  47

Figure 4. Graph showing the evolution of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita versus the consumption of energy resources in 

Russia during the period 1968–97 (hysteresis loop (red) for the Russian economy) relative to worldwide trends. Green line, average 

global energy consumption vs. GDP trend; blue line, fit to relatively developed countries, most of which have a GDP above the 

global average; pink line, fit to developing countries, most of which have a GDP below the global average. FRG, Federal Republic of 

Germany. From Kontorovich and others (1999a).

Russia 1968

Russia 1997

Russia 1995

Russia 1992

Russia 1989

Russia 1991

Russia 1986

Russia 1993

USA

Canada

Sweden

Belgium

Great Britain

Switzerland

Denmark

Australia

FRG

Norway

France

Netherlands

Finland

Japan

Italy

Israel

Venezuela

Argentina

Spain

Greece

Mexico

Morocco Iraq

South Korea

Iran

Austria

Chile Colombia

Indonesia 0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

 ENERGY CONSUMPTION, IN TONS OF STANDARD FUEL PER CAPITA

GDP (IN 1993 U.S. DOLLARS) PER CAPITA

Figure 5. Graph showing oil and condensate production in 2000 by the major world producers.

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

OIL AND CONDENSATE, IN MILLIONS OF TONS

Saudi Arabia

United States

Russia

Iran

China

Venezuela

Norway

Mexico

Great Britain

Iraq

Nigeria

Canada

Kuwait

Libya

Indonesia
48  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

NATURAL GAS, IN BILLIONS OF CUBIC METERS

Russia

United States

Canada

Great Britain

Indonesia

Netherlands

Algeria

Uzbekistan

Mexico

Norway

Saudi Arabia

Iran

Australia

Argentina

Venezuela

Figure 6. Graph showing production of natural gas in 2000 by the major world producers.

Figure 7. Graph showing forecast of oil and gas production in Russia from 2000 to 2020 (data from The Project of Energy Strategy 

in Russia until 2020).

305

335

350 590

750

660

320

700 725

335

Gas

Oil

OIL, IN MILLIONS OF TONS

YEAR

GAS, IN BILLIONS OF CUBIC METERS

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

20182020

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800
Oil and Gas Resources

In the near term, stable development and export of Russia’s 

energy resources require continued exploration for additional 

reserves and improvements in development technology, particularly in the mature fields in northern West Siberia. In the middle 

term, the gas fields in the Yamal Peninsula (northern West 

Siberia), with identified reserves exceeding 10 trillion cubic 

meters, will need to be brought into production, and new centers 

of oil and gas production established in East Siberia (area of the 

Siberian Platform). Resource estimates made at the Institute of 

Petroleum Geology of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Kontorovich and others, 1999b,c) suggest that, 

if the proposed scenarios of development of the oil, gas, and 

coal resources are realized, cumulative production in Russia will 

be 8.1 billion–10.9 billion tons of oil, 20 trillion–21.5 trillion 

cubic meters of gas, and 9.8 billion–11 billion tons of coal for 

2001 to 2030. During this period, major additions to Russia’s 

reserve base from Siberia should be at least 400 million tons 

per year of oil, 900 billion cubic meters per year of gas, and 350 

million tons per year of coal.

For growth of Russia’s energy reserve base to occur, it is 

necessary that exploration activity be significantly increased 

over current levels and that state-of-the-art drilling methods 

and new geophysical and research techniques be applied. 

In addition, increased exploration should be supported 

by national economic incentives for major investments in 

resource development. We believe these objectives will be 

addressed given the significance of the predicted hydrocarbon 

resources in Siberia.

Scientists of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy 

of Sciences have prepared proposals on the development of 

some Siberian petroleum provinces and area-administrative 

units for the Government of Russia within the context of the 

new energy strategy of Russia (figs. 10 and 11). In the near 

term, because of current regional, national, and geopolitical 

conditions, emphasis should be placed on development of 

an oil and gas industry in East Siberia, including the Sakha 

Republic (Yakutia). This region has very large hydrocarbon 

reserves, but they remain largely undeveloped. Only the Sakha 

Republic (Yakutia) is a current producer of oil and gas, with 

a production of more than 1 billion cubic meters per year. In 

the remainder of East Siberia and the Russian Far East, coal, 

mainly in low-rank deposits, accounts for more than 70 percent of the energy base. In this region, high-energy-con­suming 

and environmentally harmful industries also are widely 

Figure 8. Pie diagram showing the distribution of in-place oil 

resources in Russia.

European

part

20%

Shelf

12%

Other

regions

1%

West Siberia

54%

East Siberia

13%

Figure 9. Pie diagram showing the distribution of in-place gas 

resources in Russia.

European

part

8%

Shelf

32%

Other regions

1%

West Siberia

East Siberia 41%

18%

Figure 10. Chart showing forecast of maximum oil production of 

oil fields of the West Siberian Plate and Siberian Platform under 

current technologies and resource base in 2000 to 2030 (values in 

thousands of tons).

Subjects of Federation

Years

154,250

26,364

6,300

190

52

390

80

187,626

210,139

43,755

7,000

2,040

1,206

3,000

5,379

2,500

275,019

329,562

69,992

3,600

3,000

1,280

5,150

6,743

34,990

454,317

 2000 2010 2020 2030

330,000

70,000

2,600

3,000

1,280

6,624

7,341

36,035

456,880

Khanty-Mansy autonomous okrug

Yamal-Nenets autonomous okrug

Tomsk region

South of Tyumen region

Novosibirsk region

Sakha Republic (Yakutia)

Irkutsk region

Krasnoyarsk kray

Total

Figure 11. Chart showing forecast of maximum gas production of 

gas fields of the West Siberian Plate and Siberian Platform under 

current technologies and resource base in 2000 to 2030 (values in 

millions of cubic meters).

Subjects of Federation Years

12,989

527,030

1,868

541,887

 2000

14,000

603,160

8,151

11,610

25,677

9,771

672,369

 2010

11,621

610,000

10,200

44,530

26,764

27,753

730,868

 2020 2030

5,606

615,570

10,200

77,649

18,520

15,841

743,386

Khanty-Mansy autonomous okrug

Yamal-Nenets autonomous okrug

Tomsk region

Sakha Republic (Yakutia)

Irkutsk region

Krasnoyarsk kray

Total

Economics and Environment as Factors of Sustainable Development of Siberian Mineral Resources  49
50 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

developed. In comparison to the European part of Russia, 

Western Europe, and North America, consumption of cleaner 

fuels such as natural gas is very low in East Siberia and the 

Russian Far East, as well as in countries of the Asia-Pacific 

region geographically close to Siberia. Only Japan, which does 

not possess significant resources of natural gas, consumes gas 

in significant quantities. In Japan, environmental protection 

legislation prohibits the use of coal in electric power stations 

(with the exception of Hokkaido).

Current estimates suggest that the actual demand for 

natural gas in southern East Siberia and the Russian Far East 

by 2010 is expected to be about 30 billion–40 billion cubic 

meters per year. In addition, demand for natural gas in China, 

Japan, and Korea is estimated to be more than 50 billion cubic 

meters per year.

In the 1970s through the 1980s, before the current economic crisis in Russia, significant geologic exploration was 

conducted in East Siberia and the Sakha Republic (Yakutia). In 

this region, annual deep wildcat and exploratory drilling was 

up to 300,000–350,000 meters, and up to 20,000 kilometers 

of seismic profiles were laid out by the common-depth-point 

(CDP) method. This work resulted in the discovery of more 

than 35 oil and gas fields during a short period, many of which 

are very large. Development of the petroleum fields in the 

region (for example, Lena-Vilyuy, Nepa-Botuoba, Katanga, 

Baikit, and Angara-Lena) will be important for creating a successful oil and gas industry in the region.

Among the most prospective targets in East Siberia are 

the Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye oil-gas field (Krasnoyarsk 

Territory) and the Kovyktinskoye gas field (Irkutsk region). 

In the Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye field, which is the world’s 

oldest recognized giant oil-gas deposit hosted in a sedimentary 

cover sequence (1 billion–1.4 billion years old), the predicted 

reserves are estimated at about 1 billion tons of oil and about 

1 trillion cubic meters of gas. In the Kovyktinskoye field, gas 

reserves are estimated at about 1 trillion cubic meters. The 

identified and predicted resources in these fields would allow 

the creation of one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, 

which could provide energy supplies not only to Siberia and 

the Russian Far East but also to countries in the neighboring 

Asia-Pacific region.

In light of the energy resources already identified in East 

Siberia and those predicted to occur, annual gas production in 

the region could be brought to 125 billion–175 billion cubic 

meters. Thus, development of these large natural gas resources, 

along with production of associated oil, could provide a stable 

source of environmentally clean energy to a region having a 

significant portion of the world’s population for a period of at 

least 50 to 60 years. If the last quarter of the 20th century is 

considered as a period of growth and development of an oil and 

gas industry in European Russia and West Siberia, then the first 

decades of the 21st century should be the period of growth and 

development of a similar industry in the East Siberia and AsiaPacific region. The realization of this level of development of a 

new energy-producing industry in East Siberia and the AsiaPacific region should be among the highest priorities for Russia 

in the first quarter of the 21st century.

Achieving this level of development will require a rapid 

increase in geologic exploration in the region and the planning 

and construction of a large system of gas pipelines and related 

processing and manufacturing operations. This, in turn, will 

require large financial investments, particularly with regard 

to providing necessary environmental protection. The rate of 

financial return from such a program of natural gas development 

can be significantly increased by the simultaneous development 

of oil fields and creation of a large-scale petrochemical industry. 

Additional support could come from construction of a major 

helium industry based on the unique association of helium 

reserves with many of the oil fields. In the 1970s through 1980s, 

the Soviet Union succeeded in developing such an energy 

program in West Siberia and Europe with support of some 

West European countries. It is necessary now that Russia and 

its eastern neighbors concentrate their efforts to fulfill a similar 

development program in East Siberia and the Russian Far East.

For the more distant future, the undeveloped resources of 

Russia’s continental shelf in the Arctic and Far East seas may 

represent the world’s largest remaining reserve of hydrocarbons (Gramberg and Laverov, 2000). Although the very low 

level of past exploration in these areas precludes a reliable 

estimate of their actual hydrocarbon resources, very high 

potential can be inferred from exploration criteria such as the 

total area and thickness of the sedimentary cover; presence of 

local structures; optimum combination of oil source, reservoir, 

and sealing rocks; paleogeographic and structural-geodynamic 

prerequisites; high success ratio of exploratory drilling; and 

other factors (fig. 12).

Three giant gas fields, Shtokmanovskoye, Rusanovskoye, 

and Leningradskoye, have been discovered on the shelves of 

the Barents and Kara Seas. These discoveries were made as a 

result of minimum drilling (with a success ratio of 31.2 percent in the Barents Sea and 66.6 percent in the Kara Sea). No 

wildcat drilling has been conducted in the eastern sector of the 

Arctic and Far East seas; however, geologic criteria indicate 

that the discovery of large new fields can be expected there.

Figure 12. Pie diagram showing the distribution of initial 

extracted resources of hydrocarbons in the seas of Russia.

Far East sea

18%

Baltic sea

(Russian sector)

3%

Arctic sea

79%
In total, the hydrocarbon resources of the Arctic shelf 

are estimated at a minimum of 83 billion–110 billion tons 

(as converted to oil), and those of the Far East region (shelf 

with adjacent continental areas) at 0.4 billion tons of oil and 

1.6 trillion cubic meters of gas. Although estimates of Arctic 

and Far East hydrocarbon resources made by different groups 

of specialists sometimes differ, all estimates suggest a high 

hydrocarbon potential in these regions. However, development 

of these resources will require large investments, particularly 

for the development of marine resources. In the future, energy 

also may be derived from gas hydrate reserves of the Arctic 

regions. The development and use of gas hydrate resources 

are, nonetheless, still at an early stage of scientific and technological investigations. In any scenario for the future development of world energy supplies, the resources of Siberia and 

its adjacent shelves will be of great significance not only for 

Russia but also for other countries of the world.

Coal Resources

The coal industry of Siberia is also of great importance to 

Russia’s economy. With the change to a free-market economy, 

the coal industry is in drastic need of restructuring. Recently, 

the problems of the coal-mining industry were considered 

by academician K.N. Trubetskoi (2000) and those of the 

coal-producing industry were considered by Y.N. Malyshev 

(2000). The resource, economic, and environmental problems 

of Siberia’s operating coal mines also have been analyzed by 

G.I. Gritsko (1999). Analysis of the situation has shown that 

most coal mines in the European part, Far East, and north of 

the country appear to be uneconomic under new economic 

conditions and should be shut down. Restructuring of the coal 

industry will necessitate reestimation of coal reserves throughout Russia. All the identified coal reserves (201.7 billion tons) 

have been divided into favorable and unfavorable, taking into 

account economic, environmental, and mining factors. This 

analysis suggests that about 40 percent of Russia’s current coal 

reserves are subeconomic to uneconomic.

A great majority of the most favorable, well-explored, 

and especially commercial coal reserves in Russia are concentrated in the two largest coal-producing regions of West Siberia—the Kuznetsk coal basin and the Kansk-Achinsk browncoal basin. Lesser reserves also are located in deposits in East 

Siberia and the Russian Far East. The development potential 

of high-quality, economic coal deposits in Western (European) Russia and the Urals appears to be very limited. Thus, 

the main areas of future coal production in Russia will be 

concentrated in Siberia. Development of these coal resources, 

however, may result in increased environmental impacts.

Along with restructuring of Russia’s coal industry and 

the economic production of coal for traditional applications 

(energy, coke chemistry, export), new technologies and uses 

for coal should be developed; for example, thermochemical 

processing to produce valuable fuel and nonfuel products, such 

as synthetic liquid fuel, adsorbents, mineral wax, and humates.

In addition, new technologies should be applied for the 

recovery and utilization of coal-bed methane from underground developments. Recovery of the methane would provide 

an important additional energy source and help address the 

dangerous problem resulting from gas concentrations in 

underground coal mines. Current estimates suggest that the 

major coal basins of Russia contain at least 60 trillion cubic 

meters of methane (Methane Emissions Mitigation, 2000). 

This amount is equal to almost 30 percent of the resources in 

conventional gas fields and represents about half of the world 

reserves of coal-bed methane (133 trillion cubic meters).

The main source for coal-bed methane in Russia is the 

Kuzbass basin, the interior of which contains up to 13 trillion 

cubic meters of gas to a depth of 1.8 kilometers. Most of the 

methane is concentrated in giant deposits, with the density of 

methane resources reaching 600 million–1,200 million cubic 

meters per square kilometer (Methane Emissions Mitigation, 

2000). This density is 4 to 5 times as great as that in the developed San Juan field in the United States.

Presently, new technologies are being devised for the 

enrichment and thermochemical processing of coals, as well as 

for producing, transporting, and burning water-coal suspensions. Combustion of water-coal suspensions results in significantly lower emissions of ash, sulfur oxides, and nitrogen into 

the atmosphere. Currently, an experimental system is being 

built to transport a water-coal suspension 264 kilometers from 

Kuzbass to Novosibirsk. When completed, its annual production capacity is expected to be 3 million tons.

The identified coal resource base of Siberia is sufficient to 

meet Russia’s coal needs for many more decades. In the future, 

the fields in the northern regions of Siberia, particularly the 

giant Tunguska coal basin in the Siberian Platform, will provide 

additional coal resources that can be brought into production.

Siberian Mineral Resources

The regions of Russia’s Arctic, Siberia, and Far East also 

possess significant concentrations of other strategic mineral 

resources, such as gold, diamonds, and base and noble metals 

(fig. 2). Presently, the value of mineral exports from these 

areas accounts for about 60 percent of all Russian exports, 

with the base metals nickel and cobalt representing more than 

20 percent of world sales and platinum-group metals about 

50 percent. In total, Russia exports 93 percent of its produced 

aluminum, 94 percent of its nickel, 77 percent of its copper, 67 

percent of its zinc, 62 percent of its uranium, 60 percent of its 

oil and oil products, 31 percent of its tin, and 32 percent of its 

gas resources, all mainly from Siberia.

Major gold deposits are concentrated in Siberia. The 

highest priority deposits for commercial development and 

significant gold production are the Sukhoy Log deposit in 

the Irkutsk region, containing about 1,000 tons of gold and at 

least 500 tons of platinum-group metals; the Olimpiadinskoye 

deposit in the Yenisey Range, Krasnoyarsk Territory, with 

Economics and Environment as Factors of Sustainable Development of Siberian Mineral Resources  51
52 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

more than 600 tons of gold; the Kholbinskoye deposit in Eastern Sayan (not shown in fig. 2), with more than 500 tons of 

gold; the Nezhdaninskoye deposit in Yakutia, with about 500 

tons of gold; and a number of deposits in the Magadan region. 

In the Sukhoy Log deposit, large-scale production totaling 

20–30 tons of gold is feasible. In total, by 2005 gold production could be increased by 50–60 tons per year in the regions 

of East Siberia and the Far East. Along with development of 

the Sukhoy Log gold deposit, development should begin of 

the large deposits in the Udokan (copper), Katuginskoye (rare 

earth elements), and Northern Baikal (lead, zinc) regions along 

the main Baikal-Amur railroad.

The Noril’sk mining complex is the major producer of 

nickel, copper, and platinum-group metals in Russia. Stable 

development of the Noril’sk mining complex can be achieved, 

in spite of exhaustion of reserves of rich sulfide ores, by 

bringing large reserves of lower grade platinum-bearing disseminated ores into production and by improving recovery of 

associated mineral commodities.

Siberia may also offer a solution to the problem of providing Russia with sufficient alumina raw material. It is known 

that Russia does not possess significant bauxite resources. 

However, the predicted resources of nepheline and syenite 

resources that could serve as a raw material for producing aluminium are significant in southern Siberia (Kemerovsk region, 

Krasnoyarsk Territory, Tyva Republic, Buryat Republic). The 

positive results of the Achinsk alumina plant, which is using 

nepheline to produce aluminum without a decline in production levels, shows the feasibility of using domestic feldsparrich materials to replace imported bauxite.

Russia also has very good prospects to increase production 

of high-quality diamonds. Achieving increased diamond production, however, requires the active support and participation 

of the Government. A serious problem for the diamond-producing industry of Yakutia is the increase in depth of rich deposits, 

which makes inevitable the transition to underground mining. 

Increased diamond production also requires that development 

begin of the new high-grade kimberlite pipes found in recent 

decades in the Yakutsk and Arkhangelsk regions.

Economic and Environmental Factors 

Affecting Development

One of the most important economic and environmental 

issues related to the use of Siberian mineral resources is the 

application of environmentally and economically efficient 

technologies to deal with the materials in waste (tailings) 

dumps from mining operations. Many past attempts to process 

waste materials have had a low efficiency, with only selective 

recovery of a limited number of useful components from these 

complex deposits. This problem has led to the accumulation of 

large waste dumps, some of which contain dangerous environmental pollutants. At the same time, many of the waste dumps 

can be considered as secondary resources (manmade deposits) 

for many types of commodities, particularly noble (platinoids, 

gold, silver) and base metals, rare earth elements, and diamonds. Consideration of this problem in detail is beyond the 

scope of this paper, and we discuss it only conceptually here.

At the present time, mining science in Russia emphasizes 

the development of new methods for effectively processing 

complex raw materials (including waste dumps), new technologies fostering the most effective reduction or removal of various 

waste materials, and new methods to help prevent irreversible 

changes in the environment. Saving water and land areas is an 

important function of these technologies. Technologies that 

reduce the amount of waste allow for more effective use of 

natural resources and greater efficiency in mining operations. 

This effort includes obtaining additional production from and 

rehabilitation of quarries and mines; reducing dangerous dust 

and gas emissions into the atmosphere; reducing the release of 

quarry and mine waters into local and remote water basins; and 

decreasing the removal of valuable lands for locating dumps 

and other waste storage facilities. Because land areas and water 

resources have been damaged or destroyed by the wastes from 

mining and mineral processing operations, choosing technologies that reduce the amount and toxicity of waste materials 

should be a determining factor in decisions regarding future 

development and processing of mineral resources.

The mineral raw material base of the 21st century will be 

affected by the depletion of many large near-surface deposits 

having relatively high concentrations of mineral commodities. 

This depletion will necessitate the application of new mining 

and processing methods to allow development of previously 

uneconomic mineral deposits, as well as exploration for and 

development of deposits of varying sizes and grades at greater 

depths and in remote areas. In addition, it will be necessary to 

develop the mineral raw materials of the continental shelves 

and reprocess waste materials (for example, tailings) from past 

mining operations.

The development and use of Siberian mineral resources 

will depend on the solution of a number of critical economic 

and environmental problems. These include the following:

The development and use of new economically efficient 

and environmentally safe technologies for the mining 

and processing of mineral resources and reprocessing of 

materials in existing waste dumps, many of which contain 

environmentally harmful pollutants.

Monitoring and scientific study of predicted environmental changes, particularly in the northern regions of Siberia, 

where the danger of catastrophic degradation of permafrost due to worldwide climatic warming is particularly 

acute and has serious consequences for the oil, gas, and 

mineral industries and associated social infrastructure.

Reduction of methane emissions into the atmosphere 

during the development and transport of gas, oil, and coal. 

Presently, methane content in the atmosphere increases 

by 1–2 percent annually. This problem and others were 

considered at the 2d International Conference “Methane 

1.

2.

3.
Emissions Mitigation” held in Novosibirsk, in June 2000. 

At the conference, particular emphasis was placed on the 

necessity of mitigating methane emissions from the petroleum and coal industries in Siberia; these emissions total 

about 30 percent of the natural methane balance.

Preservation of fragile ecosystems during the development 

of mineral resources, including in the Lake Baikal and 

Gornyi Alatai regions that have received special World 

Heritage Site status from the United Nations Educational, 

Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).

Lake Baikal, with its unique ecosystem (80 percent of 

the biological species are endemic) and the largest freshwater 

reserves in the world, can be considered a prime example of 

the need for appropriately planned and regulated development 

of natural resources in a unique and fragile environment. Since 

the 1950s to 1960s, the scientists of the Siberian Branch of 

the Russian Academy of Sciences, first, under the guidance 

of academician A.A. Trofimuk, and then academician V.A. 

Koptyug, have been playing a leading role in the struggle for 

conservation of Lake Baikal and its adjacent landscapes.

It has taken the focused long-term efforts of scientists, as 

well as the heightened concern of the public and involvement of 

the international scientific community, to change government and 

industry policies in the Lake Baikal region from ones focused 

only on the development of natural resources to ones that include 

protection of the environment. This change in policies has led to 

stopping the development of environmentally harmful industrial 

plants, new environmental regulations for operating industries like 

pulp and paper mills, and efforts for a Federal law granting special protective status to the Baikal region. Such protective status 

would help assure that future development of the region’s natural 

resources also preserves the integral ecosystems and biodiversity of the entire Baikal region (water basin and adjacent areas), 

as well as conserves the functional and aesthetic aspects of the 

natural environment. For these reasons, strict environmental regulations have been developed for licensing geologic exploration 

and development technologies for the unique base-metal deposits 

(Udokan and Kholodninskoye, fig. 2) located in the conservation 

zone of the Lake Baikal region.

Recognition of the unique character of the Lake Baikal 

region both nationally and internationally has led to its becoming the focus for the design and testing of new strategies for 

environmental and resource management in Russia. Further, 

this recognition has led to establishment of several cooperative international scientific investigations in the Baikal region, 

whose results have helped shape regional and global environmental policies. According to incomplete data, more than 20 

international governmental and nongovernmental organizations are offering significant funding for environmental studies 

in the Lake Baikal region. With the support of the international 

community, the Lake Baikal region was designated a World 

Heritage Site by UNESCO. On the initiative of academician 

V.A. Koptyug, the Baikal region has been recommended to 

the consulting board on sustainable development, under the 

4.

General Secretary of the United Nations, to serve as a global 

model for sustainable development.

An international conference on the general problems of Russian and international foundation cooperation for investigations in 

the Lake Baikal region was held in Ulan-Ude, September 9–12, 

1998. Considered in some detail at the conference were interdisciplinary projects supported by the International Association for 

Promotion of Cooperation, with scientists from the independent 

states of the former Soviet Union and other international foundations, as well as the projects and programs of technical assistance 

performed within the framework of Technical Assistance for the 

Commonwealth of Independent States, World Bank programs, 

and others. Also discussed at the conference were the prospects 

of further international cooperation and recommendations for 

regulations for economic development and environmental protection and monitoring on the local, national, and international level. 

Results of the conference are published in Dobretsov (1999).

Many of the conclusions and recommendations made at 

the Ulan-Ude conference on Lake Baikal can be applied to 

problems of sustainable resource management in other regions 

of Siberia. Many of the problems are particularly characteristic 

of the northern and eastern regions of Siberia that contain the 

major mineral resources. Along with international and state regulations, of special importance for the efficient management of 

natural resources (including mineral resources) in these regions 

is the direct involvement of local jurisdictions to incorporate the 

interests of native populations to preserve their cultural heritage.

Conclusions

Because of the difficult social and economic conditions 

currently in Russia, many of the policies required for sustainable 

national and regional development programs have yet to be established. Russia’s transition to a free-market economy presents specific difficulties, particularly with regard to laws regulating financial return on resource production (especially mineral resources) 

and criteria and methods for monitoring natural resource development at the Federal, regional-administrative, and local levels. 

However, the general trends in current strategic development of 

Russia follow the principles of sustainable development stated 

at the world conference in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The examples 

highlighting the success of addressing the most critical economic 

and environmental problems in Siberia convincingly illustrate the 

benefits of an increased role of science and international scientific 

cooperation in the modern world.

Acknowledgments

The authors sincerely thank and are indebted to Dr. 

Klaus J. Schulz of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for 

his comprehensive review comments and editorial handling 

that significantly improved the structure and clarity of the 

manuscript. We also thank also Drs. Joseph A. Briskey and 

Economics and Environment as Factors of Sustainable Development of Siberian Mineral Resources  53
54  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Warren J. Nokleberg (both of the USGS) for their assistance in 

publication of this paper.

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Dobretsov, N.L., ed., 1999, Baikal as an area of the World 

Heritage List—Results and prospects of international 

cooperation—Transactions of the International Conference, 

Ulan-Ude, Russia, September 9–12, 1998: Novosibirsk, 

Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 312 p.

Gramberg, I.S., and Laverov, N.P., eds., 2000, The Arctic on 

the threshold of the third millennium (resources potential 

and ecological problems): St. Petersburg, Nauka Press, 247 

p. (In Russian with English summary and table of contents.)

Gritsko, G.I., 1999, The role of coal in Russia’s fuel-energy 

complex and ecological problems of a coal-producing 

region in transition to sustainable development, in International scientific conference on the 275th Anniversary of 

the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ecological problems of 

the coal industry in a region during transition to sustainable 

development: Kemerovo, Kuzbassvuzizdat, v. 1, p. 23–27.

Kontorovich, A.E., Dobretsov, N.L., Laverov, N.P., Korzhubaev, A.G., and Livshits, V.R., 1999a, Energy strategy of 

Russia in the 21st century: Vestnik RAN, no. 9, p. 771–789. 

(In Russian.)

Kontorovich, A.E., Korzhubaev, A.G., and Livshits, V.R., 

1999b, Oil- and gas-producing complex and the future of 

Russia, in Science of Tyumen at the turn of the century: 

Novosibirsk, Science Press, p. 20–42. (In Russian.)

Kontorovich, A.E., Korzhubaev, A.G., and Livshits, V.R., 

1999c, The prospects of development of Russia’s economy 

and fuel-energy complex in the first decades of the XXIst 

century, in Collection of reports at the conference “Petroleum Geology at the Boundary of Centuries—Forecast, 

Prospecting, Exploration and Development of Fields,” v. 3, 

The raw material base of Russia’s oil industry, its structure 

and prospects of development: St. Petersburg, VNIGRI, p. 

232–250. (In Russian.)

Malyshev, Y.N., 2000, Technology of development of coal 

deposits at the boundary of centuries, in Evolution of new 

scientific trends and technologies of development of the 

Earth’s underground resources: Moscow, p. 132–144. (In 

Russian.)

Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, Jorgen, and Behrens, W.W., III, 1972, The limits to growth—A report for 

the Club of Rome’s project on the predicament of mankind: 

New York, Universe Books, 205 p.

Methane Emissions Mitigation, 2000, Reports of the 2nd 

International Conference, Novosibirsk, June 18–23, 2000: 

Novosibirsk, Institute of Coal and Coal Chemistry of the 

Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 

711 p.

Trubetskoi, K.N., 2000, The problems of mining sciences in 

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the Earth’s underground resources: Moscow, p. 4–22. (In 

Russian.)
Mineral Supply and Demand into the 21st Century

By Stephen E. Kesler1

become available, global mineral demand probably will focus 

on the same metals and minerals that are of interest today.

Population will have a bigger effect on future mineral 

demand than the creation of new products and markets. 

Projections of future population range widely, depending on 

estimated fertility rates. For low fertility rates of 1.5 to 1.6 

children per female, which are below the “replacement rate” 

of 2.1, world population is projected to increase from about 6 

billion to about 7 billion people and then to decline after that, 

reaching the 1950s level of 2.5 billion in about 2150. If, on 

the other hand, global fertility rates remain at 2.5 to 2.6, world 

population will reach about 25 billion in 2150. For 2050, these 

two extremes would yield world populations of 7 billion or 11 

1

Department of Geological Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 

MI 48109, U.S.A. (e-mail: skesler@umich.edu).

Introduction

World population is growing faster than at any time in 

history, and mineral consumption is growing faster than population as more consumers enter the market for minerals and as 

the global standard of living increases (fig. 1). Does this mean 

that we will face a mineral supply crisis in the 21st century? If 

so, can we solve this mineral supply crisis by increased mineral exploration, and will this exploration require more geological information and better land access? Answers to these 

questions must be based on predictions of world demand for 

minerals into the 21st century, along with a better understanding of the relation between global mineral reserves and those 

in individual deposits. Where, exactly, are our future mineral 

reserves and what do we know about them?

World Demand for Minerals

World demand for minerals will be affected by three 

general factors—uses for mineral commodities, the level of 

population that will consume these mineral commodities, and 

the standard of living that will determine just how much each 

person consumes. As new materials and applications are found, 

markets for mineral commodities can expand considerably. 

An example is seen in strontium, which was not widely used 

until the 1960s, when it was found to be the most cost-effective means of preventing radiation from escaping from color 

television picture tubes. This new market stimulated extensive 

exploration and the discovery of many new strontium deposits.

Although it is impossible to foresee all of the new products that will be developed for use by society in the future, 

they certainly will be composed of chemical elements and 

minerals from Earth because there is no other source from 

which they can be obtained. Furthermore, energy constraints 

will require that most of these products consist largely of 

elements and minerals that can be obtained from Earth with a 

minimal investment of energy. Thus, minerals will retain their 

dominant role as the basis for products used by society and, 

therefore, as the basis for world manufacturing and agriculture. Until new and significantly cheaper energy sources 

Figure 1. Schematic illustration of the change in world steel 

consumption and population since 1700. Dashed line shows 

world population (millions of people divided by 10), and solid 

line shows steel consumption (millions of metric tons). As for 

all mineral commodities, the growth of steel consumption has 

greatly outpaced the growth of population, reflecting increasing 

per capita demand for minerals. Data for this plot are from United 

Nations (1966, 1973, 1995) population reports and the U.S. Bureau 

of Mines (1953–93) and U.S. Geological Survey (1997 and 2002) 

“Minerals Yearbooks” for 1950, 1955, 1960, 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980, 

1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000.

POPULATION

STEEL

CONSUMPTION

MILLIONS

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

YEAR

1700 1800 1900 2000
56  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

billion, largely because population changes related to low fertility rates will not yet have begun to decline and those related 

to high fertility will not have begun to accelerate.

Although these two estimates of world population in 2050 

differ greatly, they are not likely to result in mineral demand that 

differs by the same amount. This is likely because there generally 

is a negative relation between per capita mineral demand and population for most countries (fig. 2). For instance, China and India 

had per capita copper consumption in 1998 of 0.6 and 2.7 pounds, 

respectively, whereas South Korea and Taiwan, with significantly 

smaller populations, had per capita copper consumption of 29.2 

and 66.7 pounds, respectively. This relation reflects the greater 

difficulty of raising the standard of living of large populations 

compared to small populations, a point that is well illustrated 

by Singapore, which has a higher per capita income than many 

western countries, in part because it has a very small population. 

Because most future population growth will result from increases 

in developing countries where the standard of living is low, the 

effect of higher populations on total mineral consumption will 

not be great, at least within the range of present estimates through 

2050. Taking a middle estimate of about 9 billion for global 

population in 2050 and assuming that each additional person will 

demand slightly less than the one before him or her suggest that 

increasing population could increase mineral demand by about 25 

percent between 2000 and 2050.

Variations in the standard of living could affect future 

mineral demand more than population increases will. Per capita 

consumption of almost all minerals has increased in most areas 

during the last century, and the biggest differences and changes 

were related to increased standards of living. Asian countries 

have shown particularly impressive growth over the last few 

decades (fig. 3). The increase in per capita copper consumption 

in Asia ranged from a low of about 40 percent in India to a high 

of about 82 percent in Taiwan between 1985 and 1998. Changes 

in per capita copper consumption in developing countries in 

other parts of the world have been smaller, but still positive, 

although only barely so for Brazil and South Africa (fig. 4). 

Figure 2. Graph showing per capita copper consumption vs. 

population in 1998 for the United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, 

Chile, France, Spain, United Kingdom, China, Korea, Thailand, 

Taiwan, India, Japan, Turkey, South Africa, and Australia. Data 

from American Bureau of Metal Statistics (various years) and the 

U.S. Census Bureau Web site at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/

idbrank.html. COPPER CONSUMPTION, IN POUNDS PER CAPITA

POPULATION, IN MILLIONS

10 100 1,000 10,000

0.1

1

10

100

Figure 3. Graph showing changes 

in per capita copper consumption in 

China, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, 

India, and Japan during the period 

1970–2000. Data from American 

Bureau of Metal Statistics (various 

years) and the U.S. Census Bureau 

Web site at http://www.census.

gov/ipc/www/idbrank.html.

COPPER CONSUMPTION, IN TONS PER CAPITA

0.035

0.025

0.015

1970 1980 1990 2000

0.005

0

YEAR

Japan

Thailand

S. Korea

Taiwan

India China
Changes in per capita copper consumption in most developed 

countries also have been small and over the period 1970–2000 

have ranged from positive for the United States, France, and 

Spain to negative for the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia (fig. 5). Despite these regional differences, there have 

been overall increases in per capita copper consumption for the 

entire world of about 11 percent between 1985 and 1998 and 13 

percent over the period 1971 to 1998 (fig. 6).

These rough comparisons suggest that the increases in 

population and standards of living will have relatively similar 

effects on global mineral demand. With each of these amounting to about 0.5 percent annually, the combined total increase in 

global mineral demand should be approximately 1 percent per 

year. Economic cycles, recycling, and other factors are likely to 

be second-order controls on overall demand for new minerals 

over this time span, although they will be important locally and 

for shorter periods. Although per capita mineral consumption 

does vary with economic cycles, the trend toward gradually 

increasing global demand has been clear for many decades and 

is likely to remain in place. Thus, regardless of exact demand, 

it is almost certain to be higher than it is today, even if population does not increase. Some of the increased demand caused 

Mineral Supply and Demand into the 21st Century  57

Figure 4. Graph showing changes 

in per capita copper consumption in 

Mexico, Brazil, Chile, South Africa, 

and Turkey during the period 1970–

2000. Data from American Bureau of 

Metal Statistics (various years) and 

the U.S. Census Bureau Web site at 

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/

idbrank.html.

COPPER CONSUMPTION, IN TONS PER CAPITA

0.008

0.006

0.004

1970 1980 1990 2000

0.002

0

YEAR

Mexico

South Africa

Turkey

Chile

Brazil

Figure 5. Graph showing changes 

in per capita copper consumption 

in major developed countries during 

the period 1970–2000. Countries are 

the United States, Canada, Spain, 

France, Australia, and the United 

Kingdom. Data from American 

Bureau of Metal Statistics (various 

years) and the U.S. Census Bureau 

Web site at http://www.census.

gov/ipc/www/idbrank.html.

COPPER CONSUMPTION, IN TONS PER CAPITA

0.013

0.011

0.009

1970 1980 1990 2000

0.003

0.005

0.007

YEAR

Australia

Canada

U.K.

France

U.S.A.

Spain
58  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

by population increase will be met by more effective recycling, 

but this can be applied only to some commodities and cannot 

meet overall demand as long as both population and standards 

of living increase. These comparisons indicate that increases in 

demand for minerals are almost inevitable for the next 50 years 

or so unless there is a major breakdown in global economic 

activity or a catastrophic decrease in world population.

Global Mineral Reserves

Global mineral reserves are adequate to supply world 

mineral demand for the next 50 years, at least in theory. Presently estimated global mineral reserves are 20 to almost 1,000 

times larger than present annual production, depending on the 

commodity of interest (fig. 7). Commodities having the lowest 

ratio of reserves to annual production in 1992 include diamonds and gold, which have been the object of very successful 

global exploration programs since that time.

If mineral demand increases at a 1 percent annual rate, as 

estimated above, it will be about 60 percent higher than today 

by 2050, which is not enough to change the general conclusion that Earth has adequate minerals to supply its population 

through 2050. Thus, demand is likely to remain the dominant 

factor in world mineral supplies for the next few decades. 

Exactly when supply will become the dominant factor is difficult to predict and will undoubtedly vary from commodity to 

commodity and be heavily dependent on the form and cost of 

industrial energy. In fact, the failure of earlier predictions of 

mineral supply and demand relations, many of which foresaw 

mineral shortages by the year 2000, has led to a dangerous 

complacency about future world mineral supplies and might 

lead us to misinterpret these reassuring reserve figures.

Although mineral reserves are large and seem adequate for 

the next 50 years or so when considered as a single global number, it is important to remember that these reserves are made up 

of many separate deposits, all of which have to be considered in 

the local context of which they are a part. Each of these deposits 

is subject to geologic, engineering, economic, environmental, 

and political constraints that undergo continuous change.

Geologic factors are of first-order importance and can 

range from new discoveries to changes in mining, beneficiation, 

smelting, or other treatment processes. Discoveries are the most 

important stimulus to exploration because they provide a reason to 

explore areas or geologic environments that were considered previously to be without potential. Discoveries range from recognition of a new, completely unfamiliar type of deposit, through realization that a familiar deposit type might be found in a new area, 

to recognition of possible lateral or depth extensions of known 

deposits or districts. For instance, discovery of the Olympic Dam 

deposit in Australia and recognition of its similarity to deposits in 

other parts of the world led to recognition of a new class of iron 

oxide-copper-gold deposits in other parts of the world and encouraged widespread exploration of terranes that previously were of 

little interest to copper geologists (Hitzman and others, 1992).

Discoveries of diamond-bearing kimberlites in northern 

Canada expanded the geologic terrane thought to be favorable for diamonds and considerably increased global diamond 

reserves (Levinson and others, 1992). On a smaller scale, deep 

drilling during the last 20 years in the Carlin area of Nevada in 

the United States has shown that gold ores originally considered to have formed in shallow, near-surface environments 

Figure 6. Graph showing change in 

world per capita copper consumption 

during the period 1970–2000. Data from 

American Bureau of Metal Statistics 

(various years) and the U.S. Census 

Bureau Web site at 

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/

idbrank.html.

CHANGE IN PER CAPITA COPPER CONSUMPTION, 

IN THOUSANDS OF TONS

2.5

2.3

2.1

1.9

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

YEAR
actually extend to significant depth. This new information 

opened completely new areas at depth to exploration and produced large new reserves (Teal and Jackson, 1997).

Related engineering factors can also have a big impact 

on mineral reserves. Introduction of heap-leaching methods 

during the 1970s and early 1980s permitted mining of much 

lower grade gold ores and considerably expanded global gold 

reserves. Similar changes affected the copper and zinc industries during the 1990s, making oxide deposits economically 

attractive and adding smaller amounts to global reserves.

It is important to understand that all these discoveries and 

developments resulted from increased exploration that took place 

in response to favorable economic frameworks. Without this 

encouragement, the large expenditures necessary to make these 

discoveries would not have taken place. Thus, political, economic, 

and environmental factors also are important to exploration. The 

importance of these factors cannot be overemphasized. As shown 

in figure 8, there generally is a good correlation between land 

area and the number of mineral commodities produced for most 

large countries having stable economies and regulatory structures. Countries having less stable systems do not show a similar 

correlation between area and mineral production, although they 

probably contain geologically favorable areas. Although mineral 

explorationists are accustomed to risk and commonly enter areas 

or countries earlier than most other investors, they expect an 

economic environment that will allow them to profit from large 

discoveries. Recent changes in the political and economic landscape in many Latin American countries have led to increased 

mineral investment and large increases in mineral exploration and 

production. Other countries, notably Cuba, which opened briefly 

for exploration in the 1990s, have found it more difficult to move 

exploration projects to production at least partly because of excessive revenue expectations on the part of government.

Environmental and land access regulations also play an 

important role in encouraging or discouraging exploration. For 

example, initiatives to ban the use of cyanide that have been put 

forward in South Dakota, Montana, and Colorado in the United 

States could remove large volumes of gold-bearing rock from 

our current reserve and are definitely discouraging exploration in 

these areas. Such initiatives may also place an emphasis on ores 

that are amenable to other forms of treatment, possibly even lowgrade placer deposits. Because mining of placers causes more 

extensive surface disturbance, elimination of cyanide processing 

can lead to greater rather than less environmental damage. Initiatives to tax reserves have a similar short-term discouraging effect 

that has not proved to be insurmountable in most areas.

Figure 7. Graph showing ratios of global reserves to annual global 

production (consumption) for most mineral and energy commodities 

for 1992; the ratios provide a rough indication of the adequacy (in 

years) of currently known global reserves (from Kesler, 1994).

100+

years

50–100

years

years

years

25–50

10–25

RESERVES/CONSUMPTION = ADEQUACY, IN YEARS

0 10 100 1,000 10,000

Soda Ash

Rare Earths

Yttrium

Magnesium

Sodium Sulfate

Diatomite

Lithium

Iodine

Coal

Potash

Columbium

Bauxite

Rutile

Platinum Group

Iron Ore

Vanadium

Boron

Chromium

Cobalt

Vermiculite

Phosphate

Rhenium

Antimony

Tantalum

Ilmenite

Natural Gas

Tungsten

Zirconium

Nickel

Thallium

Sulfur

Mercury

Gold

Arsenic

Lead

Zinc Diamond

Silver

Indium

Molybdenum

Oil

Selenium

Fluorspar

Copper

Uranium

Bismuth

Manganese

Graphite

Strontium

Barite

Cadmium

Peat

Tin

Figure 8. Graph showing the relation between land area and 

number of mineral commodities produced for developed and 

developing countries (from Kesler, 1994, based on original from 

Govett and Govett, 1977). +, less developed countries; ¢, more 

developed countries.

0

NUMBER OF MINERAL COMMODITIES PRODUCED

LAND AREA, IN SQUARE MILES

10 20

104

105

106

107

Sudan

New Zealand

South Africa

U.S.A.

Zaire

Former U.S.S.R.

China

Australia

Canada Argentina

Saudi Arabia India

Iran Libya

Chad

Angola

Japan France

Spain

Mexico

Brazil

Italy Germany

Ireland

Netherlands

Belgium

Low- &

Medium-Income

Economies

High-Income, Stable Economies

Mineral Supply and Demand into the 21st Century  59
60 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Future Mineral Supplies

The factors that affect mineral exploration and reserves 

can change in a very short time. Discoveries and new mapping 

can change the geologic landscape, processing breakthroughs 

can make poor ore more attractive, and changes in political, 

economic, and regulatory environments can take place with the 

stroke of a pen. As a result, assessments of mineral reserves 

are ephemeral and must be revised continually to reflect these 

continuing changes.

The ultimate egalitarian goal would be for all countries 

to show a good correlation between mineral production and 

area, or, in other words, for all countries to share the burden of 

supplying the world’s population with minerals rather than to 

expect others to shoulder the environmental burden. For this to 

happen, we need not just a leveling of the environmental and 

economic playing fields but also more basic geologic information. At this point, the quantity and quality of geologic information relevant to mineral exploration vary greatly across the 

globe. As a result, it is difficult to prioritize areas for exploration, especially in comparison to competing uses for land.

From a geologic perspective, the most important things 

that can be done to assure that world mineral reserves meet the 

challenge of the new century are the following:

Conduct research into the nature of processes that form 

mineral deposits

Conduct geologic mapping and related geochemical and 

geophysical surveys and compile data on known deposits, 

prospects, and favorable geologic environments

Conduct subsurface mapping and sampling

These three topics are discussed below.

Conduct research into the nature of processes that form 

mineral deposits with the goal of increasing our understanding 

of processes that cause ores to form and our ability to recognize 

far-field (distant) indicators of deposits and perhaps totally new 

ore-forming processes and environments.—A few far-field patterns of alteration zoning have been delineated locally, largely 

for porphyry copper and epithermal systems (Williams-Jones, 

1986; Darce, 1990; Dilles and Einaudi, 1992). Isotopic patterns 

of similar size related to fluid flow have been mapped around 

a few hydrothermal deposits (Taylor, 1973; Cathles, 1993; 

Vázquez and others, 1998). Even larger scale patterns of fluid 

flow have been suggested by studies of organic matter maturity 

and illite crystallinity around Mississippi-Valley-type deposits 

(Bertrand and others, 1998). At least some of the measurements 

used to delineate these far-field patterns cost about the same as 

an assay, suggesting that further research might be possible to 

delineate fluid flow patterns and provinces over large regions.

Completely new deposits are more difficult to identify but 

probably are out there. For instance, water and other volatile 

constituents lost during prograde metamorphism are thought to 

move gold and possibly arsenic (Powell and others, 1991) and 

may form completely new deposits. Zinc may move similarly, 

1.

2.

3.

as indicated by systematic regional depletion and enrichment 

patterns in metamorphic terranes (Ague, 1994). Zinc is a common trace constituent of many greenstone gold deposits and 

may form concentrations of its own in metamorphic terranes.

Sea-floor hydrothermal systems also offer possibilities. 

Only half of the heat lost from midocean ridge environments 

is accounted for by high-temperature hydrothermal systems 

along the ridges (Stein and Stein, 1994). The rest of the heat is 

transferred by lower temperature hydrothermal, off-ridge systems. Because of their lower temperatures, these systems must 

have very large water fluxes, although little is known about 

their capacity to transport and deposit ore elements.

Conduct geologic mapping and related geochemical and 

geophysical surveys and compile data on known deposits, 

prospects, and favorable geologic environments.—This work 

will provide critically important background data on the surface 

and near-surface part of our planet to guide future exploration. 

Despite the many good geologic maps that have been made over 

the years, there is a continuing need for new maps as the list of 

things that we need to describe grows. At this point, we have 

regional-scale geologic maps of most of Earth’s surface, but we 

must progress from that overview to detailed maps that show not 

only the geology but also geochemical and geophysical patterns 

and features. The large volumes of data that will be produced by 

this activity must be put into a format that can be accessed widely 

and manipulated easily. Although some data will remain proprietary for various periods, most should eventually be merged into 

these databases and made available to the public.

Conduct subsurface mapping and sampling.—The main 

goal of mapping on the surface is to develop a better idea of 

the geologic characteristics of the subsurface. This information 

will lead, in time, to maps and sections that show the geologic, 

geochemical, and geophysical features of the subsurface and 

that provide much more detailed guidance for mineral exploration. Construction of these maps and sections must be based 

on samples that are recovered by drilling done for mineral 

exploration and other purposes.

Although subsurface exploration by drilling is a disruptive 

process, it is essential to discovery. It requires regulatory approval 

in most areas, which is often delayed or prevented by individuals 

with a poor understanding of how such exploration is carried out. 

This lack of understanding leads to exaggerated estimates of damage from the drilling process and reluctance to see it undertaken, 

just at the time in world history when we need more subsurface 

exploration to assure future mineral supplies. Efforts must be 

made to educate decisionmakers and the general public about the 

exploration process, what it can realistically achieve, and what 

type of damage it may cause to the environment.

At the same time, efforts also are needed to limit the environmental impact of subsurface exploration through directed 

drilling and other approaches that yield more information per 

unit of land area that is disturbed. Several important steps can 

be taken to limit the environmental impact of drilling. First, 

samples obtained by drilling should be characterized in as many 

ways as possible. Although most exploration projects do not 

require complete characterization, such efforts may provide 
information useful for future exploration with different objectives, thus eliminating the need for some new drill holes. Tax 

credits or other incentives can be offered to encourage more 

complete characterization of drill samples. Second, drill samples 

should be retained in a collection for possible later study and 

characterization. Maintaining collections of this type is very 

expensive, and new ways to do it should be sought. Finally, 

databases and sample libraries resulting from this drilling 

should be made widely available to the public or to qualified 

groups, thus eliminating the need for additional drill holes.

Conclusions

The actions discussed above are essential if we are to be 

good stewards of Earth’s mineral endowment and if demand 

is to continue to rule the global mineral supply and demand 

equation. As we enter a century that will be marked by greater 

world trade, these actions and studies must be conducted at 

the scale of continents and even the entire Earth, rather than 

individual countries, as has been the practice up to the present.

References Cited

Ague, J.J., 1994, Mass transfer during Barrovian metamorphism of pelites, south-central Connecticut; I, Evidence for 

changes in composition and volume: American Journal of 

Science, v. 294, no. 8, p. 989–1057.

American Bureau of Metal Statistics, [various years], Nonferrous metal yearbook [issued annually]: Howell, N.J., 

American Bureau of Metal Statistics, Inc.

Bertrand, Rudolf, Chagnon, André, Héroux, Yvon, and Savard, 

M.M., 1998, Hydrothermal alteration of clay minerals and 

organic matter within and outside the Jubilee carbonatehosted Zn-Pb deposit, Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia, 

Canada: Economic Geology, v. 93, no. 6, p. 746–756.

Cathles, L.M., 1993, Oxygen isotope alteration in the Noranda 

mining district, Abitibi greenstone belt, Quebec: Economic 

Geology, v. 88, no. 6, p. 1483–1511.

Darce, Mauricio, 1990, Mineralogic alteration patterns in volcanic 

rocks of the La Libertad gold mining district and its surroundings, Nicaragua: Economic Geology, v. 85, no. 5, p. 1059–1071.

Dilles, J.H., and Einaudi, M.T., 1992, Wall-rock alteration and 

hydrothermal flow paths about the Ann-Mason porphyry 

copper deposit, Nevada—A 6-km vertical reconstruction: 

Economic Geology, v. 87, no. 8, p. 1963–2001.

Govett, G.J.S., and Govett, M.H., 1977, The inequality of distribution of world mineral supplies: CIM (Canadian Institute 

of Mining and Metallurgy) Bulletin, v. 70, no. 784 (August 

1977), p. 59–68.

Hitzman, M.W., Oreskes, Naomi, and Einaudi, M.T., 1992, 

Geological characteristics and tectonic setting of Proterozoic iron oxide (Cu-U-Au-REE) deposits: Precambrian 

Research, v. 58, no. 1–4, p. 241–287.

Kesler, S.E., 1994, Mineral resources, economics and the environment: New York, Macmillan, 396 p.

Levinson, A.A., Gurney, J.J., and Kirkley, M.B., 1992, Diamond sources and production—Past, present, and future: 

Gems and Gemology, v. 28, no. 4, p. 234–254.

Powell, Roger, Will, T.M., and Phillips, G.N., 1991, Metamorphism in Archaean greenstone belts—Calculated fluid compositions and implications for gold mineralization: Journal 

of Metamorphic Geology, v. 9, no. 2, p. 141–150.

Stein, C.A., and Stein, Seth, 1994, Constraints on hydrothermal heat flux through the oceanic lithosphere from global 

heat flow: Journal of Geophysical Research, B, Solid Earth 

and Planets, v. 99, no. 2, p. 3081–3095.

Taylor, H.P., Jr., 1973, 18O/16O evidence for meteoric-hydrothermal alteration and ore deposition in the Tonopah, 

Comstock Lode, and Goldfield mining districts, Nevada: 

Economic Geology, v. 68, no. 6, p. 747–764.

Teal, Lewis, and Jackson, Mac, 1997, Geologic overview of 

the Carlin trend gold deposits and descriptions of recent 

deep discoveries, in Vikre, Peter, Thompson, T.B., Bettles, 

Keith, Christensen, Odin, and Parratt, Ron, eds., CarlinType Gold Deposits Field Conference: Society of Economic 

Geologists Guidebook Series, v. 28, p. 3–38.

United Nations, 1966, World population prospects as assessed 

in 1963: New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Studies no. 41, 149 p.

United Nations, 1973, The determinants and consequences of 

population trends: New York, United Nations, Department 

of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Studies no. 51.

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revision: New York, United Nations, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, Population Division, 886 p.

U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1953–93, Minerals Yearbook for 1950, 

1955, 1960, 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1990, 

Volume 1—Metals and Minerals: Washington, D.C., U.S. 

Bureau of Mines, variously paged. (Also available online at 

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/usbmmyb.html.)

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idbrank.html.

Mineral Supply and Demand into the 21st Century  61
62 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

U.S. Geological Survey, 1997 and 2002, Minerals Yearbook 

for 1995 and 2000, Volume I—Metals and Minerals: Reston, Va., U.S. Geological Survey, variously paged. (Also 

available online at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/

commodity/myb/.) [Publication of the “Minerals Yearbook” 

moved from the U.S. Bureau of Mines to the U.S. Geological Survey in 1995.]

Vázquez, Rodrigo, Vennemann, T.W., Kesler, S.E., and Russell, Norman, 1998, Carbon and oxygen isotope halos in 

the host limestone, El Mochito, Zn-Pb-(Ag) skarn massive 

sulfide-oxide deposit, Honduras: Economic Geology, v. 93, 

no. 1, p. 15–31.

Williams-Jones, A.E., 1986, Low-temperature metamorphism 

of the rocks surrounding Les Mines Gaspé, Quebec—Implications for mineral exploration: Economic Geology, v. 81, 

no. 2, p. 466–470.
Global Mineral Exploration and Production—

The Impact of Technology

By Michael D. Doggett1

(1989, 1992), Doggett (1994), Mackenzie, Doggett, and Ortiz 

(1997), and Mackenzie, Doggett, and Thompson (1997). 

Extrapolating from country statistics tabulated in different ways 

means that the values presented are approximations. This is 

particularly true in the early decades covered by the study. The 

expenditures are meant to represent grassroots and onsite exploration but not costs related to acquisition of properties.

Production statistics have been tabulated from a number 

of sources as well, including the former U.S. Bureau of Mines 

(USBM) and Statistics Canada (1946–98). The series for 

production generally is more complete and reliable than that 

for exploration expenditures. Some minor inconsistencies exist 

due to changes over time in recording Western world, nonCommunist world, and total world data.

Value-of-production series have been compiled by using 

the production series and average annual metal prices for the 

seven metals. These values represent the gross sales value of 

the metal production. Wherever possible, the London Metal 

Exchange prices have been used; otherwise, a number of price 

references have been consulted, including “Metals Week” 

(1969–99), Robertson (1986), and USBM (1993).

Conclusions drawn in this study are based on broad trends 

in exploration and production and are not thought to be particularly sensitive to minor inconsistencies in the series of data. All 

money values presented are in constant 1999 U.S. dollars.

50-Year Trends in Base-Metal and Gold 

Exploration Costs

Table 1 presents exploration expenditure trends in gold 

and base metals on a decade-by-decade basis for the period 

1950–99. Overall, approximately $76 billion has been spent 

on the search for new economic deposits. The results indicate that exploration expenditure levels have been increasing 

significantly in real terms over time. Exploration increased 

from $3.5 billion in the 1950s to $12 billion in the 1970s and 

to approximately $28 billion in the 1990s. Taken on its own, 

this trend suggests that discovery costs have been increasing 

over time. More generally, changing discovery costs over time 

should provide a measure of the tradeoff between depletion 

and technological advances.

1

Department of Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, K7L 3N6, Canada (e-mail: doggett@geol.queensu.ca).

Introduction

Many of the largest, highest grade, closest to surface, closest 

to market mineral deposits have been depleted or currently are in 

production. Over the next half century, the competition for land 

use among diverse sectors of an ever-increasing population will 

intensify. Mining companies struggling to improve the traditional 

bottom line will be forced to support a triple bottom line incorporating the costs and benefits of environmental and social responsibilities. Under these conditions, the ability of the international 

mineral sector to find and produce required amounts of metallic, nonmetallic, and fuel commodities hinges on technological 

innovation. While it would be naive to trust blindly in technology 

to overcome all aspects of depletion, it also would be imprudent 

to ignore past contributions of technology to an industry that 

ranks among world leaders in productivity. An analysis of global 

mineral exploration and production over the past 50 years reveals 

some interesting trends, which can be used to project where 

the mineral sector is headed in the years to come. A case study 

focusing on copper supply raises a series of questions about the 

tradeoffs between depletion and technology.

Database

This study examines trends in exploration and production 

for seven metals—copper (Cu), gold (Au), lead (Pb), molybdenum (Mo), nickel (Ni), silver (Ag), and zinc (Zn). Although 

silver is produced as a primary metal and as a byproduct of 

both gold and base-metal mines, for the purposes of this study, 

it is lumped together with base metals. This grouping allows 

the isolated analysis of gold as an exploration target and primary metal.

Exploration expenditure series have been compiled from 

a wide range of sources, including Natural Resources Canada, 

Statistics Canada, Australian Bureau of Statistics (1965–91), 

Metals Economics Group, and the “Mining Journal,” and from 

previously compiled exploration series in Cranstone and others 

(1987), Doggett and Mackenzie (1987), Mackenzie and Doggett 
64  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

A more detailed analysis of the exploration expenditure series presented in table 1 shows that the overall trend 

is disguising the two distinct trends for gold and base metals. While gold and base-metal expenditures each accounted 

for about half of the total expenditure, base-metal expenditures increased in the early decades and then decreased in 

the 1980s before increasing again to end the study period at 

approximately $10 billion during the 1990s. Gold has shown a 

steadily increasing trend over the past 50 years and peaked at 

approximately $18 billion in the 1990s.

As we look ahead to the coming decades, exploration 

expenditures for base metals are likely to continue within the 

range indicated by the past three decades. Expenditures for 

gold, on the other hand, are not likely to continue to increase 

at the same rate in the future. Indeed, it is highly likely that a 

decrease in the level of gold exploration expenditures from the 

peak 1990s value will occur over the next decade, as expenditure levels in 2000 and 2001 are projected to be significantly 

below those in the latter years of the 1990s.

50-Year Trends in Base-Metal and Gold 

Production Amounts

To more fully evaluate the importance of the trends in 

exploration expenditure, comparisons are made with the output of the various metals being considered. Table 2 illustrates 

the amounts of metals produced over the five decades. Overall 

base-metal production increased by more than 200 percent 

over the study timeframe, while gold and silver production 

increased by more than 100 percent.

50-Year Trends in Base-Metal and Gold 

Discovery Costs

An exact picture of discovery costs over time would measure the amount of metal discovered per dollar of exploration 

expenditure. Because we do not have a record of the metals contained in discoveries over the past 50 years, the production of 

metals has been used as a proxy. Thus, exploration expenditure 

is measured as a function of the metal produced. Table 3 shows 

this ratio on a decade-by-decade basis for base metals and gold. 

These results have been calculated by dividing exploration 

expenditures from table 1 by metal production from table 2. 

The results indicate that exploration costs for base-metal output 

have fluctuated between 1.5 and 2.4 cents per pound over time, 

with an average for the entire period of 2.1 cents per pound. 

These values do not support the notion that discovery costs are 

increasing with time. With respect to gold exploration, the cost 

per ounce increased substantially, to more than $40 per ounce 

in the 1980s, as exploration expenditures increased rapidly. The 

large jump in gold production during the 1990s resulted from 

increased exploration in the 1980s and pushed the discovery 

cost back down to under $25 per ounce.

50-Year Trends in Base-Metal and Gold 

Production Values

Table 4 illustrates the value of production for base metals 

and gold over the past five decades. The values are expressed 

in 1999 U.S. dollar equivalents and represent gross value 

measured by the average annual price times total production 

for each metal for each year. Several interesting trends emerge 

from the data. First, the overall trend in value of mineral 

production increased sharply in the 1960s and 1970s and then 

leveled off during the 1980s and 1990s. This trend suggests 

that the increases in production illustrated in table 2 essentially 

have been offset by decreases in metal prices. Thus, over the 

past three decades, there has been little overall growth in the 

sector. This finding has important implications for corporate 

planning, as most companies have a stated objective of yearover-year growth. Notwithstanding more efficient production and focus on cost cutting, it is highly unlikely that most 

companies can grow in an industry where the overall value of 

production has remained essentially flat over a long period.

The other important trend concerns the relative values 

of base-metal and gold production. Overall, base metals have 

accounted for roughly two-thirds of the total value, but gold 

has increased its percentage share in recent decades. Furthermore, gold has increased in value of production each decade, 

while base metals increased sharply until the 1970s and then 

decreased during the 1980s and 1990s. The total value of basemetal production in the 1990s in real terms was approximately 

22 percent less than in the 1970s in spite of an overall 20 

percent increase in the amount of metal produced.

Table 1. Global base-metal and gold 

exploration expenditures.

[All money values in 1999 U.S. dollars, in billions]

Years Base metals Gold Total

1950s $3.0 $0.5 $3.5

1960s $7.2 $1.3 $8.5

1970s $9.3 $2.7 $12.0

1980s $7.3 $16.7 $24.0

1990s $10.0 $18.0 $28.0

Total $36.8 $39.2 $76.0

Table 2. Global base-metal and gold and silver production.

[Base metals in millions of metric tons; precious metals gold and silver in millions of ounces. For this table only, silver is treated as a precious metal; in the 

rest of this paper, it is grouped with the base metals]

Years Cu Pb Mo Ni Zn

Total 

base 

metals

Au Ag

1950s 34 23 0.3 2 31 90 305 2,200

1960s 54 30 0.5 4 46 135 435 2,500

1970s 75 37 0.9 7 61 181 420 3,150

1980s 81 34 1.0 8 65 189 412 4,150

1990s 104 30 1.3 10 73 218 735 4,950

Total 348 154 4.0 31 276 813 2,307 16,950
Exploration Expenditure as a Function 

of Value of Production

Results from table 3 suggest that exploration expenditure per unit of metal production has remained relatively 

flat for base metals and increased, then decreased, for gold. 

Values of production as shown in table 4, however, have 

generally decreased for base metals and increased for gold in 

later decades of the study period. We now want to consider 

the relation between exploration expenditures and value of 

production. This ratio provides a measure of the percentage of 

gross value of production that is being reinvested in exploration. Table 5 presents exploration expenditure per unit of value 

of production for base-metal and gold production. Overall, 

the percentage of value of production reinvested in exploration has increased from 1.1 percent to 3.6 percent over the 

five decades. By commodity grouping, we see that the major 

increase has been for gold where about 6 percent of value has 

been reinvested in exploration during the 1980s and 1990s. 

Given generally low profit levels in the gold sector in recent 

years, it is unlikely that this ratio is sustainable. For base 

metals, exploration as a percentage of value of production has 

remained relatively constant in the 1–2 percent range, with 

only the 1990s value exceeding 2 percent.

Depletion Versus Technology—Case 

Study Involving Copper

As shown by the evidence presented above, trends in 

discovery costs, metal prices, and value of production suggest 

that technology has been able to more than offset any depletion effects during the past 50 years. Can it be assumed that 

these same trends will continue for the foreseeable future, or 

are new external factors at play that will fundamentally alter 

the depletion-technology balance? To address this question, it 

is necessary to consider the trends in production and the technology factors underlying the trends in costs, prices, and output. While there have been important technological advances 

at all stages of the mineral supply process from exploration 

to development to production to reclamation, those having 

the greatest impact have been in one way or another related 

either to scale of operation or to processing and metallurgy. To 

examine these technology factors, consider the case of copper 

production over the period 1978 to 2000.

Historical Production of Copper

Table 6 presents the breakdown of total copper production until the end of 1999 (USBM, 1956, 1980; Natural 

Resources Canada, 1963–2000; Mikesell, 1979). More than 

430 million metric tons of copper have been produced. Of 

this total, 43 percent has been produced in the past 20 years, 

and 24 percent in the past 10 years. When viewed in this 

way, the depletion of copper resources has accelerated to the 

point where nearly one-quarter of all of the copper ever produced was supplied in the 1990s. This raises the important 

question of whether copper resources can continue to meet 

this increasing trend as we move into the new century.

Table 6. Historical global copper supply.

[Data from U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1956, 1980; Natural Resources Canada, 1963–2000; Mikesell, 1979]

Period

Production

(millions of 

metric tons)

Percent

of total

Pre-1900 10 2

1900–50 70 16

1950–99 1>350 82

1980–99 184 43

1990–99 104 24

Total 1>430 100 1

The greater than sign (>) was used to allow for 

uncounted production in parts of the Communist 

world.

Table 5. Exploration expenditures as a function of 

value of global production, in percent.

Years Base metals Gold Total

1950s 1.2 0.8 1.1

1960s 1.8 1.7 1.8

1970s 1.5 2.2 1.6

1980s 1.4 6.2 2.9

1990s 2.1 6.0 3.6

Average 1.6 4.6 2.4

Table 4. Value of global production for base 

metals and gold.

[All money values in 1999 U.S. dollars, in billions]

Years Base metals Gold Total

1950s $250 $60 $310

1960s $400 $75 $475

1970s $625 $125 $750

1980s $520 $270 $790

1990s $485 $300 $785

Total $2,280 $830 $3,110

Table 3. Global discovery costs per unit of 

production for base metals and gold.

Years Base metals

(cents per pound)

Gold

(dollars per ounce)

1950s 1.5 1.6

1960s 2.4 3.0

1970s 2.3 6.4

1980s 1.8 40.5

1990s 2.1 24.5

Average 2.1 17.0

Global Mineral Exploration and Production—The Impact of Technology  65
66  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Scale of Copper Production, 1978–2000

With respect to scale of copper operations, much of the 

increased output of metals on a worldwide basis has resulted 

from the development of huge open-pit operations. Technological advances in mining and processing equipment have 

enabled enormous increases in mine capacity with resulting 

decreases in unit operating costs and cutoff grades. A survey 

of copper mines provides a good example of the staggering 

increases in capacity. The 10 largest copper mines in terms 

of annual capacity in 1978 (Mackenzie, 1979) are shown 

in table 7. The total productive capacity of these mines was 

2.145 million metric tons of copper. The single largest mine 

was Chuquicamata, which had a capacity of 475,000 metric 

tons of copper. Capacities of the other nine mines ranged from 

125,000 to 275,000 metric tons.

mines were located in South America, 2 in North America, 1 

in Russia, and 1 in Asia. This changing distribution reflects 

not only geological endowment but also political factors, particularly in Africa and South America.

Advent of Solvent Extraction Electrowinning 

Technology

The second major technological advance affecting copper 

supply, and ultimately the copper cost curve and copper price, 

is improved metallurgy. The introduction of hydrometallurgical techniques (such as solvent extraction electrowinning) for 

the production of copper metal at the mine site, rather than 

producing a concentrate to ship to a smelter and refinery, has 

resulted in the reduction of costs for individual producers. The 

direct production of copper cathode increased from essentially 

zero in 1978 to approximately 20 percent of total copper supply by the year 2000.

Future Production Trends for Copper

Table 9 illustrates a possible future trend in copper 

supply calculated by assuming a 1.8 percent annual increase 

over the next 50 years. Total copper supply by the year 2050, 

under this scenario, would reach approximately 34 million 

metric tons per year. Comparing future production levels 

at this rate of growth in copper supply reveals that copper 

production from 2000 to 2010 would amount to 38 percent of 

Table 9. Projected future global copper 

supply.

Period

Production

(millions of 

metric tons)

Percent of

pre-2000 

total

2000–2010 165 38

2000–2025 350 81

2000–2050 1,200 280

Table 8. Projected annual capacity of 

the 10 largest copper mines in the world 

in 2000.

[Capacity in thousands of metric tons. Data 

from International Copper Study Group, 1999]

Mine, country Capacity

Escondida, Chile 905

Grasberg, Indonesia 730

Chuquicamata, Chile 680

Morenci, U.S.A. 490

Noril’sk, Russia 450

Colluhuasi, Chile 450

El Teniente, Chile 350

Bingham, U.S.A. 310

Los Pelambres, Chile 280

Andina, Chile 250

Total 4,895

Table 7. Annual capacity of the 10 largest 

copper mines in the world in 1978.

[Capacity in thousands of metric tons. Data from 

Mackenzie, 1979]

Mine, country Capacity

Chuquicamata, Chile 475

El Teniente, Chile 275

Chingola, Zambia 240

Bingham, U.S.A. 204

Bougainville, Papua New Guinea 184

Cuajone, Peru 180

Kamoto Pit, Congo (D.R.C.) 172

Mount Isa, Australia 150

Mufulira, Zambia 140

Palabora, South Africa 125

Total 2,145

Table 8 shows the projected annual capacities of the 

10 largest copper mines in 2000 (International Copper 

Study Group, 1999). The total productive capacity of the 

10 mines is 4.895 million metric tons—230 percent higher 

than comparable production in 1978. This total represents 

one-third of the productive copper capacity of all operating mines in 2000. In terms of the size of individual 

producers, 8 of the 10 now have capacities exceeding 

300,000 metric tons per year. These huge increases in 

copper production capacity have been achieved in spite of 

the lowering of average grade of production in most cases, 

suggesting that physical mining capacity has increased 

at an even higher rate. From the perspective of depletion, 

3 of the top 10 mines in 1978 are still in the top 10 in 

2000, and only 1 of the 10 largest mines in 1978 has been 

depleted of ore reserves.

Another interesting factor is the geographic distribution of the largest mines. In 1978, 4 of the 10 were located 

in Africa, 3 in South America, 2 in Australia and Papua New 

Guinea, and 1 in North America. In 2000, 6 of the 10 largest 
all copper produced before the year 2000 (430 million metric 

tons; see table 6). Similarly, by the year 2025, 81 percent of 

total pre-2000 production would be achieved, and by 2050, 

copper production would be 280 percent of the pre-2000 

total.

How would this level of copper supply be attained? How 

much exploration expenditure would be required to find the 

required deposits? Is it possible for technology to allow for 

this enormous increase in supply while continuing to lower 

costs and prices? To address some of these points, consider 

the two major technological factors discussed above—scale of 

operations and metallurgical improvements.

Scale of Operations

How large can individual copper mines become to 

meet future needs? Consider the hypothetical case outlined 

above of a 1.8 percent annual growth in copper supply 

over the next half century. If the 10 largest mines were to 

account for one-third of total production as they do today, 

they would need to produce more than 11 million metric tons of copper on an annual basis. Thus, the average 

production of the 10 largest mines would be more than 1 

million metric tons of copper per year, which is larger than 

the single largest producer at present. Another important 

implication of the need for ever-larger producers is the 

environmental impact of huge open-pit mines. As environmental regulations become ever-more stringent around the 

world, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where mines are 

permitted to become large enough to meet this expanded 

production. Thus, it is unlikely that such increases in capacity will be accomplished by increases in scale of operations 

like those seen over the past two decades.

Metallurgical Advances

The other major area of technological advance that 

is likely to affect future supply of gold and base metals is 

improved metallurgical processing techniques. As indicated 

above for copper, hydrometallurgical processing has begun 

to replace pyrometallurgy. To date, these gains have been 

made by processing those ores most susceptible to leaching 

processes—oxide and supergene ores. Future breakthroughs 

in mineral processing are likely to include treating sulfide 

ores through leaching or pressure leaching, or even in-place 

leaching, to produce metals at the mine site. We are at the 

early stages of this technology, which gradually will replace 

pyrometallurgical processing over the next 50 years. Thus, 

unlike the scale-of-operations question discussed above, 

there is considerable opportunity for advances in processing 

technology to provide an increased supply of metal by promoting a lower cost structure for processing primary ores.

Conclusions

Technology has won the battle with depletion in the past 

50 years, primarily by increasing scales of operation and 

improving processing efficiencies.

At even moderate rates of increase in demand, metal production in the next 50 years will dwarf all-time historical 

totals.

It is unlikely that the rate of increase in scale of operations 

can be sustained in the longer term because of growing 

environmental concerns.

Major metallurgical improvements in the processing of 

primary ores have only just begun.

Depletion-driven increases in metal prices may prevail 

eventually, but technological innovations are expected to 

keep prices low for at least the next 50 years.

References Cited

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1965–91, Mineral exploration, 

Australia [issued annually]: Canberra, Australian Bureau of 

Statistics publication with catalog number 8407.0 and ABS 

reference number 10.41.

Cranstone, Donald, Mackenzie, B.W., and Doggett, M.D., 

1987, Long-term breakeven price for Canadian gold supply, 

in Long-term prospects for gold mining; Proceedings of the 

seventeenth CRS Policy Discussion Seminar, October 6–8, 

1986, Kingston, Ontario: (Kingston, Ontario) Queen’s University, Centre for Resource Studies, Proceedings no. 20.

Doggett, M.D., 1994, Incorporating exploration in the economic theory of mineral supply: Kingston, Ontario, Queen’s 

University, unpublished Ph.D. thesis, 195 p.

Doggett, M.D., and Mackenzie, B.W., 1987, Economic trends 

in Canadian gold supply: (Kingston, Ontario) Queen’s University, Centre for Resource Studies, Working Paper 

no. 41, 77 p.

International Copper Study Group, 1999, Directory of copper 

mines and plants: Lisbon, Portugal, International Copper 

Study Group, July, 82 p.

Mackenzie, B.W., 1979, Canada’s competitive position in copper and zinc markets: (Kingston, Ontario) Queen’s University, Centre for Resource Studies, Working Paper no. 16, 

43 p.

Mackenzie, B.W., and Doggett, M.D., 1989, Economic aspects 

of gold exploration—How much is too much?: (Kingston, 

Ontario) Queen’s University, Centre for Resource Studies, 

Working Paper no. 44, 26 p.

•

•

•

•

•

Global Mineral Exploration and Production—The Impact of Technology  67
68  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Mackenzie, B.W., and Doggett, M.D., 1992, Worldwide 

trends in gold exploration: (Kingston, Ontario) Queen’s 

University, Centre for Resource Studies, Working Paper 

no. 49.

Mackenzie, B.W., Doggett, M.D., and Ortiz, F.J., 1997, Economic potential of mineral exploration in Chile—Evidence 

from the historical record: (Kingston, Ontario) Queen’s 

Unversity, Centre for Resource Studies, Technical Paper 15, 

221 p.

Mackenzie, B.W., Doggett, M.D., and Thompson, Mickey, 

1997, Economic potential of mineral exploration in Australia—Evidence from the historical record, 1955–91: (Kingston, Ontario) Queen’s University, Centre for Resource 

Studies, Technical Paper 16.

Metals Week, 1969–99: New York, McGraw Hill, v. 

40–63.

Mikesell, Raymond, 1979, The world copper industry; Structure and economic analysis: Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins 

University Press, 393 p.

Natural Resources Canada [and its predecessor agencies], 

1963–2000, Canadian minerals yearbook 1960–99: Ottawa, 

Natural Resources Canada, variously paged. (Also available 

online at http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/mms/cmy/pref_e.htm.)

Robertson, Neil, 1986, Mineral commodity prices—Computer 

database assembly and preliminary analysis: (Kingston, 

Ontario) Queen’s University, unpublished B.Sc. thesis.

Statistics Canada, 1946–98 [various periodicals on mining]: 

Ottawa, Statistics Canada catalog numbers 26–201 (General 

Review of the Mineral Industries, Mines, Quarries and Sand 

Pits), 26–202 (Canada’s Mineral Production, Preliminary 

Estimates), 26–209, 26–223 (Metal Ore Mining), 26–224 

(Non-metal Mines), 61–205 (Private and Public Investment 

in Canada, Intentions), 61–206 (Private and Public Investment in Canada, Revised Intentions).

U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1956 and 1980, Mineral facts and problems: U.S. Bureau of Mines Bulletins 556 (1042 p.) and 671 

(1060 p.).

U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1993, Metal prices in the United States 

through 1991: Washington, D.C., U.S. Bureau of Mines, 201 p. 
Who Will Use a Global Mineral Resource Assessment?

An Industry Perspective1

By G.E. McKelvey2

The second danger we face is that assessments often 

are expressed in numbers of deposits or monetary units and 

then compared with other competing land uses on the basis of 

preserved value—a tradeoff approach. While we can use and 

misuse mineral assessment reports from various sources, we 

should not just accept the cold numbers. Instead, we should 

understand the limitations of the data we use and, if that 

information is not enough, get better data. It is the data, not 

the assessment, that are most valuable to the mineral discovery 

industry.

A third perilous flaw in any assessment process is 

dependence on the existing deposit models. By definition, 

descriptive ore deposit models, genetic models, and the resulting search models are based on what is known. The deposit 

is known first, and then the model is developed. Even when a 

description is detailed in every way, when we have a perfect 

understanding of how a deposit formed and when the unique 

geologic domain is globally well documented, a mineral 

assessment can fall short.

The fewer mineral deposit types we know about, the 

fewer deposits an assessment can estimate. Any user of a 

mineral assessment should consider not only the numbers 

but also new deposit types, new products or commodities not 

yet considered important, new technology that could render 

poor-quality deposits economically feasible, and a possible 

lack of relevant data for identifying a domain permissive for 

the occurrence of new undiscovered mineral deposits. Mineral 

assessment is not a static process.

A paradigm worth breaking is the misconception that 

modern, well-managed mineral production and a healthy 

environment are mutually exclusive concepts. The producing community is taking a proactive role to change this mind 

set. A history of poor stewardship is not a valid indicator of 

the future stewardship of the Earth. Every year offers more 

examples of visionary, well-managed enterprises for extracting minerals in ways that protect the environment. Mining 

companies protect large areas of the Amazon, for example, 

from clearcutting, farming, and burning. Times have changed, 

and the industry is eager to partner sustainable environment 

practices with sustainable resource development.

The assessment process, like the discovery process, 

is dynamic. Today’s estimates will change tomorrow, but a 

global mineral resource assessment is long overdue. It may not 

1

Reprinted from “Geotimes,” March 2001, v. 46, no. 3, p. 18–19, with 

permission. Copyright 2001, the American Geological Institute.

2

9485 E. Conquitadores Dr., Scottsdale, AZ 85255–4345, U.S.A. (e-mail: 

gempress@earthlink.net).

An assessment of the global mineral endowment, what 

is known and could remain undiscovered, would be a valuable tool for mineral users, mineral explorers, land planners, 

international governments, and environmental protectors 

alike. The mineral industry does not use mineral assessments 

directly to discover new ore deposits, but an assessment 

can be a tool that, in concert with other measures of Earth’s 

resources, might provide a logic-based forum for long-term 

land use planning, coordinating environmental issues, and 

assisting in related legal issues. As a result, the assessment 

could help us provide for the sustainable resource needs of 

the planet’s inhabitants. Perhaps such a forum will find the 

common ground necessary to ensure that the needs of all are 

equally addressed with logic, planning, and facts. A global 

mineral assessment, however, can be useful only if the planners, governments, protectors, and all mineral users clearly 

understand the potentially serious limitations inherent in a 

mineral assessment.

The first danger we face is that we do not have the data 

necessary to complete a global mineral assessment. Regardless of the explosion of earth science data and sophistication 

of assessment techniques, the basic data are incomplete. Large 

areas are poorly understood; some remain unstudied because 

of political or social issues. I have yet to see a map or assessment that clearly acknowledges regions and domains where 

the data are insufficient to assess mineral potential. The recognition that real information is lacking may well be the driver 

for acquiring meaningful data.

Statistical assessments may provide some measure of the 

likelihood that we will find new deposits, but some land use 

planners, government lawmakers, and other users may believe 

the specific numbers rather than understand the concept of 

mineral discovery potential and the inherent limitations of 

discovery. Cold statistics from incomplete data used by people 

not personally familiar with a region result in an assessment, 

but I prefer relying on the gut feelings of innovative people 

who have spent time in the field thinking and mapping and 

questioning paradigms.
70 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

lead directly to new discoveries, but it can be a useful forum 

to coordinate what are now fragmented, conflicting efforts to 

manage sustainable growth and environmental stewardship. I 

urge that we are cautious and that we remember that the process is not perfect and needs to change as we learn more. This 

inherent imperfection, however, is no reason not to start.
1

U.S. Geological Survey, Mail Stop 901, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo 

Park, CA 94025, U.S.A. (e-mail: singer@usgs.gov).

Mineral Resource Assessment Methodologies

Deposit Models and Their Application in

Mineral Resource Assessments

By Donald A. Singer1 and Vladimir I. Berger1

deposits. Deposits sharing a relatively wide variety and large 

number of attributes come to be characterized as a “type,” and 

a model representing that type can be synthesized. Probably 

the most important part of synthesizing mineral deposit models is the planning stage, in which consideration of the purpose 

and possible uses of the models should determine the character 

of the models. Ideally, deposit models would provide the necessary and sufficient information to discriminate (1) possible 

mineralized environments from barren environments, (2) types 

of known deposits from each other, and (3) mineral deposits 

from mineral occurrences. In quantitative assessments, deposit 

models are used to classify mineralized and barren environments and to classify types of known deposits in the tractdelineation part of the assessment, whereas mineral deposits 

are distinguished from mineral occurrences in the numberof-deposits estimation part of the assessment. The grade and 

tonnage parts of deposit models, combined with estimation of 

the number of undiscovered deposits, provide the foundation 

for economic analysis.

Although there are many fine compendiums of mineral 

deposit models (Roberts and Sheahan, 1988; Sheahan and 

Cherry, 1993; Ekstrand and others, 1995; Rongfu, 1995; 

AGSO Journal of Australian Geology & Geophysics, 1998), 

the focus here is on deposit models applied to quantitative resource assessment. Thus, this discussion is limited to 

mineral deposit models specifically designed for quantitative 

assessments, such as those in Cox and Singer (1986), Bliss 

(1992a), and Rogers and others (1995). The target population 

of these assessments is the group of undiscovered mineral 

deposits in which each is defined as a mineral occurrence of 

such size and grade that it might, under favorable circumstances, be economic. Although history suggests that we can 

expect discoveries of as-yet-unrecognized deposit types, the 

kinds of assessments discussed here do not include resources 

from these deposits.

In most published quantitative mineral resource assessments, two kinds of models have been relied upon—(1) descripAbstract

Mineral deposit models are important in quantitative 

resource assessments for two reasons: (1) grades and tonnages 

of most deposit types are significantly different and (2) types 

occur in different geologic settings that can be identified from 

geologic maps. Mineral deposit models are the keystone in combining the diverse geoscience information on geology, mineral 

occurrences, geo­physics, and geochemistry used in resource 

assessments and mi­neral exploration. Far too few thoroughly 

explored mineral deposits are available in most local areas for 

reliable identification of the important geoscience variables or 

for robust estimation of undiscovered deposits—thus we need 

mineral deposit models. Well-designed and well-constructed 

deposit models allow geologists to know from observed geologic environments the possible mineral deposit types that may 

exist and allow economists to determine the possible economic 

viability of these resources in the region. Thus, mineral deposit 

models play the central role in transforming geoscience information to a form useful to policymakers.

Descriptive and grade and tonnage models are discussed 

because they are the foundations upon which other kinds of 

models are built. Examples of deposit density models (which 

represent the number of deposits per unit area) and economic 

models are provided. Additionally, new forms of quantitative 

descriptive models are presented with preliminary examples 

of deposit mineralogy and deposits spatially associated with 

gold-rich and molybdenum-rich porphyry copper deposits.

Introduction

Because every mineral deposit is different from every 

other in some way, models have to represent more than single 
72 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

tive and (2) grade and tonnage. Descriptive and grade and tonnage models are discussed first because they are the foundations 

upon which other kinds of models are built. Examples of deposit 

density models (which represent the number of deposits per unit 

area) and economic models have appeared sparingly; each of 

these kinds of models is discussed briefly below. Additionally, 

new forms of quantitative descriptive models are discussed.

Descriptive Models

One of the purposes of a mineral deposit model is to 

communicate information that helps people to find and evaluate mineral deposits. A mineral deposit model is the systematically arranged information describing the essential attributes 

(properties) of a class of mineral deposits (Barton, 1993).

Descriptive models, such as those in Cox and Singer 

(1986), have two parts (table 1). The first describes the geologic 

environments in which the deposits are found; the second gives 

identifying characteristics of deposits. The first, the “Geological Environment,” provides information under several headings. 

The headings “Rock Types” and “Textures” describe the favorable host rocks of deposits, as well as the source rocks believed 

responsible for some deposits. “Age Range” refers to the age of 

the event responsible for the formation of the deposit. “Depositional Environment” refers to the geologic setting of the deposit. 

“Tectonic Setting” is concerned with major tectonic features 

or provinces. “Associated Deposit Types” are listed as deposit 

types whose presence might indicate suitable conditions for the 

Table 1. Example of the descriptive model for porphyry Cu-Mo deposits from Cox (1986).

DESCRIPTIVE MODEL OF PORPHYRY Cu-Mo

MODEL 21a

By Dennis P. Cox

DESCRIPTION Stockwork veinlets of quartz, chalcopyrite, and molybdenite in or near a porphyritic intrusion. Ratio of Au (in ppm [parts 

per million]) to Mo (in percent) less than 3.

GENERAL REFERENCE Titley (1982).

GEOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT

Rock Types Tonalite to monzogranite stocks and breccia pipes intrusive into batholithic, volcanic, or sedimentary rocks.

Textures Intrusions contemporaneous with ore commonly are porphyries with fine- to medium-grained aplitic groundmass. Porphyry texture may be restricted to small dikes in some deposits (Brenda).

Age Range Mainly Mesozoic to Tertiary, but can be any age.

Depositional Environment High-level intrusive porphyry contemporaneous with abundant dikes, faults, and breccia pipes. Cupolas of 

batholiths.

Tectonic Setting(s) Numerous faults in subduction-related volcanic plutonic arcs. Mainly along continental margins but also in oceanic 

convergent plate boundaries.

Associated Deposit Types Cu, Zn, or Fe skarns may be rich in gold, gold + base-metal sulfosalts in veins, gold placers. Volcanic-hosted 

massive replacement and polymetallic replacement.

DEPOSIT DESCRIPTION

Mineralogy Chalcopyrite + pyrite + molybdenite. Peripheral vein or replacement deposits with chalcopyrite + sphalerite + galena ± gold. 

Outermost zone may have veins of Cu-Ag-Sb-sulfides, barite, and gold. 

Texture/Structure Veinlets and disseminations or massive replacement of favorable country rocks.

Alteration Quartz + K-feldspar + biotite (chlorite) ± anhydrite (potassic alteration) grading outward to propylitic. Late white mica + clay 

(phyllic) alteration may form capping or outer zone or may affect the entire deposit. High-alumina alteration assemblages may be present 

in upper levels of the system.

Ore Controls Ore grade is, in general, positively correlated with spacing of veinlets and mineralized fractures. Country rocks favorable for 

mineralization are calcareous sediments; diabase, tonalite, or diorite.

Weathering Intense leaching of surface; wide areas of iron oxide stain. Fractures coated with hematitic limonite. Supergene copper as 

chalcocite may form blanket below leached zone. Residual soils may contain anomalous amounts of rutile.

Geochemical Signature Cu + Mo + Ag ± W + B + Sr center; Pb, Zn, Au, As, Sb, Se, Te, Mn, Co, Ba, and Rb in outer zone. Locally Bi and 

Sn form distal anomalies. High S in all zones. Ratio of Au (ppm): Mo (percent) less than 3. Magnetic low.

EXAMPLES 

 Brenda, CNBC (Soregaroli and Whitford, 1976) 

 Sierrita Esperanza, USAZ (West and Aiken, 1982)
formation of deposits of the type portrayed by the model. Thus, 

this part of the model uses information from the geologic map, 

geophysical maps, and the known deposits and occurrences. The 

second part of the descriptive model, the “Deposit Description,” 

provides the identifying characteristics of the deposits themselves, particularly emphasizing aspects by which the deposits 

might be recognized, such as mineralogy, alteration, and geochemical and geophysical anomalies.

The first part of a descriptive model describes the general 

setting of the deposit type and plays a primary role in the delineation of tracts of land geologically permissive for the occurrence 

of undiscovered deposits. The second part helps classify known 

deposits and occurrences into types, which aids the delineation 

process. In some cases, the types of known deposits and occurrences identify geologic environments not indicated on geologic 

maps. The organization of the models constitutes a classification 

of deposits. The arrangement used emphasizes easy access to the 

models by focusing on host-rock lithology and tectonic setting, 

the features most easily obtained from a geologic map.

Grade and Tonnage Models

Frequency distributions of tonnages and average grades 

of well-explored deposits of each type are used as models for 

grades and tonnages of undiscovered deposits of the same type in 

geologically similar settings. Grade and tonnage models (Cox and 

Singer, 1986; Bliss, 1992a) combined with estimates of number 

of undiscovered deposits are the fundamental means of translating 

geologists’ resource assessments into a language that economists 

can use. Grade and tonnage models specifically prepared for 

assessments, such those cited above, show the frequencies of 

different sizes (for example, fig. 1) and grades (for example, fig. 

2) of each of more than 60 mineral deposit types based on more 

than 2,500 deposits from around the world. For each deposit type, 

these models help define a deposit, as opposed to a mineral occurrence or a weak manifestation of an ore-forming process. Data 

utilized to construct these models include average grades of each 

metal or mineral commodity of possible economic interest and 

the associated tonnage based on the total production, reserves, 

and resources at the lowest possible cutoff grade. These data 

re­present an estimate of the endowment of each of many known 

deposits so that the final models can accurately represent the 

endowment of all undiscovered deposits (Singer, 1994a).

An important consideration at the data-gathering stage is the 

question of what the sampling unit should be (Cox and others, 

1986; Singer, 1993). Grade and tonnage data are available to 

varying degrees for districts, deposits, mines, and shafts. In many 

cases, old production data are available for some deposits, and 

recent resource estimates are available for other deposits. ProbFigure 1. Example of tonnage part of model for porphyry Cu-Au 

deposits (modified from Singer and Cox, 1986, fig. 78). Each dot 

represents an individual deposit. Deposits are cumulated in 

ascending grade or tonnage. Smoothed curves, representing 

percentiles of a lognormal distribution having the same mean 

and standard deviation as observed data, are plotted through the 

points. Intercepts for the 90th, 50th, and 10th percentiles of the 

lognormal distributions are constructed. PROPORTION OF DEPOSITS

0.0016 0.0063 0.025 0.1 0.4 1.6 6.3 25 100 400 1,600

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS

n = 40

25 100 400

Figure 2. Example of gold grade part of model for porphyry 

Cu-Au deposits (modified from Singer and Cox, 1986, fig. 80). Each 

dot represents an individual deposit. Deposits are cumulated in 

ascending grade or tonnage. Smoothed curves, representing 

percentiles of a lognormal distribution having the same mean 

and standard deviation as observed data, are plotted through the 

points. Intercepts for the 90th, 50th, and 10th percentiles of the 

lognormal distributions are constructed. PROPORTION OF DEPOSITS

0.01 0.025 0.063 0.16 0.4 1.0 2.5 6.3 16 40 100

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

GOLD GRADE, IN GRAMS PER METRIC TON

n = 40

0.2 0.38 0.72

Deposit Models and Their Application in Mineral Resource Assessments 73
74  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

ably the most common error in constructing grade and tonnage 

models is mixing old production data from some deposits with 

resource data from other deposits. It is critical that all data used in 

the model represent the same sampling unit because mixing data 

from deposits and districts, or old production and recent resource 

estimates, usually produces bimodal or at least nonlognormal 

distributions and may introduce correlations among the variables 

that are artifacts of the mixed sampling units. Models constructed 

by using data from mixed sampling units are of questionable 

value because the frequencies of tonnage and grade observed are 

directly related to the proportion of deposits from each sampling 

unit and are unlikely to be representative of the proportion in the 

undiscovered deposits being estimated in an assessment.

It has been suggested that the grade and tonnage models 

should be extended to include not only deposits but also occurrences, which are typically very small concentrations of a mineral. If the problem of possible biases due to incomplete exploration of these occurrences is neglected, then it is possible to 

construct such models; the tonnage model would of course have 

a much lower median. Because quantitative assessments require 

that the estimated number of undiscovered deposits be consistent with the grade and tonnage model, the process of estimating 

the number of deposits might be more difficult because of the 

much larger number of “deposits” (including occurrences) to be 

estimated. An economic analysis of the results of this assessment would show that the occurrences and probably some of the 

estimated undiscovered deposits would be uneconomic. Thus, 

the effect of including occurrences in the grade and tonnage 

model would be to make more work in the assessment and not 

affect the final answer in any way.

The application of these models to resource assessments 

helps to identify how the models should be augmented. To 

avoid the situation where every deposit is considered unique 

and therefore prediction is not possible, the deposits in an 

area should be tested to determine if they are different from 

the general model. If the well-explored (that is, completely 

drilled) deposits are significantly different in size or grade, 

then the local deposits should be examined to see if they 

belong to a geologically homogeneous subset of the original 

grade and tonnage model. Only if all of these conditions are 

met should a new submodel be constructed, along with a 

consistent descriptive model. The revised model would then be 

used in conjunction with the number of deposits estimates.

Deposit Density Models

A key function of many quantitative mineral resource 

assessments is estimation of the number of undiscovered 

deposits. Numerous techniques can be used directly or as 

guidelines to make these estimates. Most robust of these methods is a form of mineral deposit model wherein the numbers of 

deposits per unit area from well-explored regions are counted 

(Bliss and Menzie, 1993) and the resulting frequency distribution is used either directly for an estimate or indirectly as a 

guideline in some other method. Ratios of number of deposits 

per unit area can be used in histograms to show how common are different deposit densities. It is not necessary that 

the base areas be explored completely, but it is necessary that 

Figure 3. Graph of numbers of deposits per unit area by deposit type from well-explored regions, as reported by Singer and others 

(2001). MB, Manitoba; NS, Nova Scotia; TAS, Tasmania; VIC, Victoria.

0 .0001 .001 .01 .1 1

Low-sulfide gold/quartz vein, Sierra Nevada, CA, U.S.A.

Low-sulfide gold/quartz vein, Klamath Mtns., CA/OR, U.S.A.

Low-sulfide gold/quartz vein, Meguma, NS, Canada

Low-sulfide gold/quartz vein, Bendigo, VIC, Aust.

Placer gold, Wiseman, AK, U.S.A.

Placer gold, Kenai, AK, U.S.A.

Bedded barite, NV, U.S.A.

Diamond kimberlite pipes, southern Africa

Cyprus massive sulfide, Cyprus

Kuroko massive sulfide, Hokuroku, Japan

Kuroko massive sulfide, Chisel Lakes, MB, Canada

Kuroko massive sulfide, TAS, Aust.

Kuroko massive sulfide, CA, U.S.A.

Porphyry copper, NV, U.S.A.

Porphyry copper, AZ, U.S.A.

Climax porphyry molybdenum, CO, U.S.A.

Climax porphyry molybdenum, NM, U.S.A.

Podiform chromite, CA, U.S.A.

Franciscan manganese, CA, U.S.A.

Franciscan manganese, Japan

Cuban manganese, Cuba

Cuban manganese, Fiji

Cyprus manganese, Cyprus

Tungsten veins, China

MINERAL DEPOSIT DENSITY

DEPOSIT DENSITY, IN DEPOSITS PER SQUARE KILOMETER

DEPOSIT TYPE

Cyprus massive sulfide, Cyprus

Kuroko massive sulfide, CA, U.S.A.

Porphyry copper, AZ, U.S.A.
the number of deposits found and the proportion of the area 

explored be estimated. Examples of mineral deposit density 

models were presented by Bliss (1992b), Bliss and Menzie 

(1993), and Singer (1994b). Singer and others (2001) summarized these estimates and added new deposit densities (fig. 3). 

As in the case of other kinds of models designed for quantitative resource assessment, deposit density models need to be 

constructed so that they are consistent with these other models.

For example, densities for low-sulfide quartz gold vein 

deposits were discussed by Bliss and Menzie (1993). These 

mesothermal deposits were defined in the descriptive model, 

and the deposit density model also was consistent with the 

grade and tonnage model. It is important to note that the same 

proximity rule used to construct the grade and tonnage model 

(workings within 1.6 kilometers of each other were treated as 

part of the same deposit) was used to define deposits for the 

deposit densities.

Many of the specially selected areas where deposit densities have been reported (fig. 3) provide standards to identify 

what should be high estimates of number of undiscovered 

deposits in most situations. Thus, many of these examples 

probably are best considered as guides to upper limits of the 

density of deposits. General deposit density models that can 

be used for estimating the number of deposits, given the area 

of the permissive tract, were provided for podiform chromite 

deposits (Singer, 1994b) and for porphyry copper deposits 

(Singer and others, 2005).

Economic Models

In resource assessments of undiscovered mineral deposits and in the early stages of exploration, including planning, 

a need exists for prefeasibility cost models. These models, 

which separate economic from uneconomic deposits, help to 

focus on targets that can benefit the exploration enterprise. 

In resource assessment, these models can be used to eliminate deposits that would probably be uneconomic even if 

discovered. As noted by Singer (1993), varying numbers of 

deposits used to construct the grade and tonnage models are 

not, or were not, economic. The former U.S. Bureau of Mines 

(USBM) previously developed simplified cost models for 

such problems (Camm, 1991). These cost models estimate 

operating and capital expenditures for a mineral deposit, given 

the appropriate mining method and the deposit’s tonnage, 

grade, and depth. These cost models also were incorporated in 

USBM prefeasibility software (Smith, 1992).

In a previous study (Singer and others, 1998), Camm’s 

simplified cost models for U.S. open-pit gold-silver deposit 

operations were modified to reflect higher capacities observed 

in heap-leach processing with autoclave, carbon-in-leach, 

carbon-in-pulp, and Merrill Crowe mills. For heap-leach 

operations, equations for estimating operating cost and capital 

expenditure also were modified. Explanations of these various processing methods are available in Camm (1991). For a 

particular tonnage, the dividing (or break-even) line between 

economic and uneconomic can be estimated by adding the 

estimated operating cost to the capital expenditure divided by 

capacity times operating days per year times the present value 

of a dollar for the life of the mine. To account for variation and 

uncertainties in most of the inputs to these estimates, 0.7 and 

1.3 of this break-even value are plotted to estimate boundaries 

for uneconomic, marginal, and economic deposits (fig. 4).

For underground mining of massive sulfide deposits 

using each of five different mining methods, capacity and cost 

estimates using the USBM models with observed mines were 

compared (Singer and others, 2000). Based on analysis of the 

economic relations in mines on 28 massive sulfide deposits 

in this study, no reason was found to reject the simplified 

cost models for underground mining operations presented by 

Camm (1991). The deposits represent at least six different 

deposit types and are located in seven different countries. For 

cut-and-fill, room-and-pillar, crater retreat, shrinkage stope, 

and sublevel longhole mining, with or without shafts, the 

equations for estimating operating cost and capital expenditure 

are consistent with known operations. The resultant equations appear to provide reasonable estimates of costs (fig. 5). 

Similar results were found for open-pit mining and heapleach recovery of copper deposits in the United States (Long 

and Singer, 2001). Camm’s methods and subsequent refinements have been incorporated in a computer program used to 

combine estimated number of deposits with grade and tonnage 

models (Duval, 2004). Nonetheless, all such estimates can be 

wrong because of factors such as poor metal recovery or errors 

in estimated future metal prices.

Figure 4. Graph showing relation between value per metric ton 

and deposit size (in millions of metric tons of ore) for some U.S. 

open-pit, heap-leach gold-silver deposits when prices and the 

rate of return are as shown.

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

0.1 0.32 1 3.2 10 32 100 320 1,000

VALUE PER METRIC TON, IN DOLLARS PER METRIC TON OF ORE

DEPOSIT SIZE, IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS OF ORE

Gold = $300/oz

Silver = $5/oz

Rate of return = 10%

ECONOMIC

UNECONOMIC

MARGINAL

Deposit Models and Their Application in Mineral Resource Assessments 75
76  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Quantitative Models

The descriptive models discussed above have been developed on the basis of expert knowledge. An alternative, more 

time consuming, method of developing descriptive models 

is to gather data from well-explored deposits of each type to 

determine how commonly different attributes and combinations of attributes occur. Quantifying mineral deposit attributes is the necessary and sufficient next step in statistically 

classifying known deposits by type. To determine if quantified 

mineral deposit models would be useful, data on the minerals reported present in 55 different types of deposits were 

compiled (Singer and others, 1997) and were used to statistically discriminate 8 of the deposit types. Using 58 minerals 

and 6 generalized rock types, over 90 percent of the unknown 

deposits were accurately classified into the correct eight types 

(Singer and Kouda, 1997); clearly digital mineralogy can be 

useful in classifying well-studied deposits. An example of the 

usefulness of this kind of data is shown by a plot (fig. 6) of 

a few of the minerals present in three subtypes of porphyry 

copper deposits. Gold, alunite, covellite, and actinolite are 

more common in gold-rich porphyry copper deposits, whereas 

pyrrhotite, fluorite, and rutile are more common in the more 

deeply emplaced molybdenum-rich porphyry copper deposits. 

Although based on preliminary data, a similar pattern emerges 

when one looks at the proportion of porphyry copper deposits that have other deposit types within 10 kilometers of the 

porphyry (fig. 7). Epithermal quartz-alunite gold-silver, epithermal Comstock gold-silver, and polymetallic replacement 

zinc-lead are more common near gold-rich porphyry copper 

deposits, but zinc-lead skarn deposits are more common near 

molybdenum-rich porphyry copper deposits.

This kind of information is necessary but not sufficient to 

discriminate barren from mineralized environments; quantifying the attributes of barren environments also is necessary 

for this task. To be useful in quantitative assessments, the 

Figure 5. Graph showing relation between value per metric ton 

and deposit size (in millions of metric tons of ore) for some zinclead skarn deposits. All deposits are assumed to be mined at a 

depth of 800 feet, with half of each mined by cut-and-fill methods 

and half by shrinkage stope methods. Prices and the rate of return 

are shown in the graph.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

0.06 0.1 0.18 0.32 0.56 1 1.8 3.2 5.6 10 18 32 56

VALUE PER METRIC TON, IN DOLLARS PER METRIC TON OF ORE

DEPOSIT SIZE, IN MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS OF ORE

Gold = $260/oz

Silver = $5/oz

Lead = $0.25/lb

Copper = $0.75/lb

Zinc = $0.50/lb

Rate of return = 10%

ECONOMIC

UNECONOMIC

MARGINAL

Figure 6. Graph showing the proportion of subtypes of porphyry 

copper deposits reporting the presence of several mineral 

species.

Gold

Pyrrhotite

Covellite

Actinolite

Alunite

Fluorite

Rutile

Porphyry Cu-Au Porphyry Cu Porphyry Cu-Mo

PERCENT OF DEPOSITS

n = 48 n = 74 n = 23

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Figure 7. Graph showing the proportion of subtypes of porphyry 

copper deposits reporting the presence of different deposit types 

occurring within 10 kilometers.

Polymetallic replacement

Quartz-alunite Au-Ag

Zn-Pb skarn

Comstock Au-Ag

Porphyry Cu-Au Porphyry Cu Porphyry Cu-Mo

PERCENT OF DEPOSITS

n = 48 n = 74 n = 23

0

10

20
models of number of deposits per unit area and the attempts to 

quantify deposit attributes must be constructed so that they are 

consistent with the present descriptive and grade and tonnage 

models. Otherwise, the resulting resource assessments will be 

internally inconsistent.

Conclusions

Consistency in quantitative assessments is dependent on 

the internal consistency required in the construction of the 

descriptive, grade and tonnage, and deposit density models. 

New models of number of deposits per unit area and other 

quantitative extensions to the present models also need to be 

consistent with the other parts of the models. That is, these 

models must be constructed from deposits that are located in 

geologic settings that match the descriptive models and that 

are consistent with the appropriate grade and tonnage models. 

These new versions of deposit models, the quantification of 

models in general, and the development of guidelines or direct 

methods of estimation of number of undiscovered deposits 

will all be successful to the extent that they are consistent with 

the other models used in assessments.

References Cited

AGSO Journal of Australian Geology & Geophysics, 1998, 

Exploration models for major Australian mineral deposit 

types [a group of 23 separately authored articles]: AGSO 

(Australian Geological Survey Organisation) Journal of 

Australian Geology & Geophysics, v. 17, no. 4, p. 69–258.

Barton, P.B., Jr., 1993, Problems and opportunities for mineral 

deposit models, in Kirkham, R.V., Sinclair, W.D., Thorpe, 

R.I., and Duke, J.M., eds., Mineral deposit modeling: Geological Association of Canada Special Paper 40, p. 7–13.

Bliss, J.D., ed., 1992a, Developments in mineral deposit modeling: U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 2004, 168 p. (Also 

available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/b2004/.)

Bliss, J.D., 1992b, Grade-tonnage and other models for diamond kimberlite pipes: Nonrenewable Resources, v. 1, 

no. 3, p. 214–230.

Bliss, J.D., and Menzie, W.D., 1993, Spatial mineral deposit 

models and the prediction of undiscovered mineral deposits, 

in Kirkham, R.V., Sinclair, W.D., Thorpe, R.I., and Duke, 

J.M., eds., Mineral deposit modeling: Geological Association of Canada Special Paper 40, p. 693–706.

Camm, T.W., 1991, Simplified cost models for prefeasibility mineral evaluations: U.S. Bureau of Mines Information 

Circular 9298, 35 p.

Cox, D.P., 1986, Descriptive model of porphyry Cu-Mo [copper-molybdenum deposits], in Cox, D.P., and Singer, D.A., 

eds., Mineral deposit models: U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1693, p. 115. (Also available online at 

http://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/b1693/Md21a.pdf.)

Cox, D.P., Barton, P.B., and Singer, D.A., 1986, Introduction, 

in Cox, D.P., and Singer, D.A., eds., Mineral deposit models: 

U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1693, p. 1–10. (Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/b1693/Intro.pdf.)

Cox, D.P., and Singer, D.A., eds., 1986, Mineral deposit 

models: U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1693, 379 p. (Also 

available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/b1693/.)

Duval, J.S., 2004, Version 2.0 of EMINERS—Economic mineral resource simulator: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File 

Report 2004–1344, available only online at 

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2004/1344/.

Ekstrand, O.R., Sinclair, W.D., and Thorpe, R.I., eds., 1995, 

Geology of Canadian mineral deposit types, v. P–1 of The 

geology of North America: Boulder, Colo., Geological 

Society of America, 640 p. (Produced as part of the Decade 

of North American Geology Project; also designated as 

Geological Survey of Canada, Geology of Canada no. 8.)

Long, K.R., and Singer, D.A., 2001, A simplified economic 

filter for open-pit mining and heap-leach recovery of copper 

in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File 

Report 01–218, 21 p., available only online at 

http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/open-file/of01-218/.

Roberts, R.G., and Sheahan, P.A., eds., 1988, Ore deposit 

models: Geoscience Canada Reprint Series 3, 200 p.

Rogers, M.C., Thurston, P.C., Fyon, J.A., Kelly, R.I., and 

Breaks, R.W., 1995, Descriptive mineral deposit models 

of metallic and industrial deposit types and related mineral 

potential assessment criteria: Ontario Geological Survey 

Open-File Report 5916, 241 p.

Rongfu, Pei, ed., 1995, Mineral deposit models of China: Beijing, Geological Publishing House, 357 p. (In Chinese with 

English abstract and table of contents.)

Sheahan, P.A., and Cherry, M.E., eds., 1993, Ore deposit 

models, v. II: Geoscience Canada Reprint Series 6, 160 p.

Singer, D.A., 1993, Development of grade and tonnage models 

for different deposit types, in Kirkham, R.V., Sinclair, W.D., 

Thorpe, R.I., and Duke, J.M., eds., Mineral deposit modeling: 

Geological Association of Canada Special Paper 40, p. 21–30.

Singer, D.A., 1994a, The relationship of estimated number of 

undiscovered deposits to grade and tonnage models in threepart mineral resource assessments, in 1994 International 

Association for Mathematical Geology Annual Conference, 

Papers and Extended Abstracts for Technical Programs, 

October 3–5, 1994, Mont Tremblant, Quebec, Canada: 

p. 325–326.

Deposit Models and Their Application in Mineral Resource Assessments 77
78  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Singer, D.A., 1994b, Conditional estimates of the number of 

podiform chromite deposits: Nonrenewable Resources, v. 3, 

no. 3, p. 200–204.

Singer, D.A., Berger, V.I., Menzie, W.D., and Berger, B.B., 

2005, Porphyry copper deposit density: Economic Geology, 

v. 100, p. 491–514.

Singer, D.A., and Cox, D.P., 1986, Grade and tonnage model 

of porphyry Cu-Au [copper-gold deposits], in Cox, D.P., 

and Singer, D.A., eds., Mineral deposit models: U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1693, p. 110–114. (Also available 

online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/b1693/Md20c.pdf.)

Singer, D.A., and Kouda, Ryoichi, 1997, Classification of mineral deposits into types using mineralogy with a probabilistic neural network: Nonrenewable Resources, v. 6, no. 1, 

p. 27–32.

Singer, D.A., Menzie, W.D., and Long, K.R., 1998, A simplified economic filter for open-pit gold-silver mining in the 

United States: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 

98–207, 10 p. (Also available online at 

http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/open-file/of98-207/.)

Singer, D.A., Menzie, W.D., and Long, K.R., 2000, A simplified economic filter for underground mining of massive 

sulfide deposits: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 

00–349, 20 p.

Singer, D.A., Menzie, W.D., Sutphin, D.M., Mosier, D.L., 

and Bliss, J.D., 2001, Mineral deposit density—An update, 

chap. A of Schulz, K.J., ed., Contributions to global mineral 

resource assessment research: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1640, p. A1–A13. (Also available online at 

http://pubs.usgs.gov/prof/p1640a/.)

Singer, D.A., Waller, Nichelle, Mosier, D.L., and Bliss, J.D., 

1997, Digital mineralogy data for 55 types of mineral 

deposits—Macintosh version: U.S. Geological Survey 

Open-File Report 97–160, one 3.5-inch disk.

Smith, R.C., 1992, PREVAL—Prefeasibility software program for evaluating mineral deposits: U.S. Bureau of Mines 

Information Circular 9307, 35 p.

Soregaroli, A.E., and Whitford, D.F., 1976, Brenda, in Sutherland Brown, A., ed., Porphyry deposits of the Canadian 

Cordillera; A volume dedicated to Charles S. Ney: Canadian 

Institute of Mining and Metallurgy Special Volume 15, 

p. 186–194.

Titley, S.R., 1982, The style and progress of mineralization and alteration in porphyry copper systems; American 

Southwest, in Titley, S.R., ed., Advances in geology of the 

porphyry copper deposits, southwestern North America: 

Tucson, University of Arizona Press, p. 93–116.

West, R.J., and Aiken, D.M., 1982, Geology of the SierritaEsperanza deposit, Pima mining district, Pima County, 

Arizona, in Titley, S.R., ed., Advances in geology of the 

porphyry copper deposits, southwestern North America: 

Tucson, University of Arizona Press, p. 433–466.
Estimating Amounts of Undiscovered Mineral Resources

By Donald A. Singer1

estimated by means of grade and tonnage models, and (3) the 

number of undiscovered deposits of each type is estimated. To 

these parts, economic analysis and the proper combinations of 

the parts by simulation (Root and others, 1992) can be applied.

Considerable care must be exercised in quantitative resource 

assessments to prevent the introduction of biased estimates of 

undiscovered resources. In three-part assessments, estimates are 

internally consistent in that delineated tracts are consistent with 

descriptive models, grade and tonnage models are consistent with 

descriptive models, grade and tonnage models are consistent 

with known deposits in the area, and estimates of the number of 

deposits are consistent with grade and tonnage models. Biases 

can be introduced into these estimates either by a flawed grade 

and tonnage model or by the lack of consistency of the grade and 

tonnage model with estimates of the number of deposits.

Issues about the consistency of mineral deposit models 

are discussed in a companion paper (Singer and Berger, this 

volume), as are grade and tonnage models that are the second 

part of three-part assessments. In this paper, the focus is on 

(1) delineating tracts of land in which the geology permits the 

occurrence of the undiscovered deposits and (2) reducing bias 

in estimating the number of undiscovered deposits.

Delineation of Permissive Tracts

To be able to consistently assess the undiscovered mineral 

resources of regions, we delineate areas where geology permits the existence of deposits of one or more specified types. 

These areas, called permissive tracts, are based on geologic 

criteria derived from deposit models that are themselves based 

on studies of known deposits within and outside the study 

area. Permissive boundaries are defined such that the probability of deposits of the type delineated occurring outside the 

boundary is negligible; that is, less than 1 in 100,000.

One delineation strategy is to move boundaries outward 

from known deposits (fig. 1). This strategy might be considered the delineation of favorable areas; however, in three-part 

assessments, we try to delineate permissive areas. Although 

favorable areas are a subset of permissive areas, they represent 

very different concepts. Their boundaries will coincide only if 

exploration coverage is very thorough and completely effective—a fairly unusual situation. In addition, delineations of 

favorable areas frequently are applied in different ways by dif1

U.S. Geological Survey, Mail Stop 901, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo 

Park, CA 94025, U.S.A. (e-mail: singer@usgs.gov).

Abstract

The purpose of the three-part form of mineral resource 

assessments is to make unbiased quantitative assessments in a 

format needed in decision-support systems so that consequences 

of alternative courses of action can be examined. It is argued that 

the internally consistent descriptive, grade and tonnage, deposit 

density, and economic models and the design of the three-part 

form of assessments reduce the chances of biased estimates of 

the undiscovered resources. One part of three-part assessments, 

mineral deposit models, is discussed in Singer and Berger (this 

volume). Here the principal ideas of delineation of tracts of land 

and estimation of the number of undiscovered mineral deposits 

therein are presented. Linkage of the models with delineation 

and with estimation of deposits further reduces possible biases. 

Additionally, seven guidelines and some examples are provided 

to reduce biases in estimates of numbers of deposits. Experience 

from meteorology suggests that consensus schemes perform better than individual estimators and that the best estimates are made 

when objective estimates such as those from guidelines are part of 

the information supplied to subjective estimators.

Introduction

Information from mineral resource assessments is used for 

making decisions concerning mineral supply, land use, the environment, development, and exploration and for shaping mineralsrelated domestic and foreign policy. Quantitative assessments are 

required to make resource assessments and their associated uncertainties explicit and reproducible and to allow economic analysis. 

The goal is to make unbiased quantitative assessments in a format 

needed in decision-support systems so that the consequences of 

alternative courses of action can be examined.

Of the many kinds of quantitative mineral resource 

assessments (Harris, 1984; Shulman and others, 1992), there 

is one, called a three-part assessment (Singer, 1993; Drew 

and others, 1999), that was designed to respond to the broad 

goal above. In three-part assessments, (1) areas are delineated 

according to the types of deposits permitted by the geology, 

(2) the amount of metal and some ore characteristics are 
80 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

ferent people because of the difficulty of defining a commonly 

acceptable operational rule.

The preferred delineation strategy is to move inward from 

permissive rocks (fig. 1). Known deposits and occurrences serve 

to identify and expand permissive tracts, not constrain them. By 

using this definition, it is possible to subdivide a permissive tract 

into two or more parts that have different kinds of information, 

different numbers of undiscovered deposits, or possibly different 

amounts of uncertainty about the number of deposits.

Tracts may or may not contain known deposits. Areas are 

excluded from these tracts only on the basis of geology, knowledge 

about unsuccessful exploration, or the presence of barren overburden exceeding some predetermined thickness. A geologic map is 

the primary local source of information for delineating tracts and 

identifying which areas are permissive for different deposit types. 

Probably the second most important kind of information is an 

inventory of known mineral deposits and occurrences in and near 

the region being assessed. Because of incomplete deposit descriptions, it often is difficult to identify deposit types for many occurrences and some deposits, but those that can be identified increase 

confidence in tracts delineated for the deposit type. Occurrences 

may indicate the possibility of some deposit types and place limits 

on the kinds and sizes of deposits elsewhere. The map of deposits 

classified by deposit type then serves as a check on the accuracy 

of the delineation of tracts permissive for that type rather than a 

determinant of the delineation. Geochemistry of stream sediments 

may suggest deposit types and aid delineation of tracts for some 

deposit types. Geophysical surveys contribute by identifying extensions of permissive rock units under cover and identifying rock 

units in poorly mapped areas; in some cases, geophysical data can 

identify favorable rock units, such as hydrothermally altered rocks. 

Both stream sediment and rock geochemistry can provide similar 

benefits to large regional assessments.

Tracts are outlined for the possibility of the existence of 

one or more deposit types as inferred by analogy with deposits 

in similar geologic settings elsewhere. Mineral deposit models 

provide the means to make the links between geologic settings 

and deposit type. In every case, the boundaries of the tracts are 

based first on mapped or inferred geology. Original boundaries 

are reduced only where it can be firmly demonstrated that a 

deposit type could not exist. For some deposit types, extensive 

exploration can provide such evidence, but for many deposit 

types, only closely spaced drilling or overburden thicker than 

the delineation limit can be used to exclude areas.

Designation of a tract as permissive does not imply any 

special favorability for the occurrence of a deposit, nor does it 

address the likelihood that a deposit will be discovered there if it 

exists. Favorability for a deposit type is represented by the number of undiscovered deposits that are perceived to exist in a tract.

Estimation of the Number of Deposits

The third part of an assessment is the estimation of some 

fixed, but unknown, number of deposits of each type that exist 

Figure 1. Maps showing delineation of tracts by two different 

strategies. The upper map shows the strategy of moving outward 

from known deposits; this strategy might be considered the 

delineation of favorable areas, which are a subset of permissive 

tracts, and it is not used in the three-part form of mineral resource 

assessments. The lower map shows the strategy of moving inward 

from permissive rocks to delineate permissive tracts.

x

x

x

x

DRILLED

PERMISSIVE

OCCURRENCE

PERMISSIVE

DELINEATE INWARD FROM

PERMISSIVE ROCKS

•••• • • DRILLED

x OCCURRENCE

x

x

x

PERMISSIVE

PERMISSIVE

x

x

x

x

x

x

DELINEATE OUTWARD FROM KNOWN

DEPOSITS

•

••• • •
in the delineated tracts. Until the area being considered is thoroughly and extensively drilled, this fixed number of undiscovered deposits, which could be any number including 0, will not 

be known with certainty.

Estimates of the number of deposits explicitly represent the probability (or degree of belief) that some fixed but 

unknown number of undiscovered deposits exist in the delineated tracts. As such, these estimates reflect both the uncertainty of what may exist and a measure of the favorability of 

the existence of the deposit type. Uncertainty is shown (fig. 2) 

by the spread of the number of deposits estimates associated 

with the 90 percent quantile and the 10 or 1 percent quantile; 

a large difference in the numbers suggests great uncertainty. 

Favorability can be represented by the estimated number of 

deposits associated with a given probability level or by the 

expected (mean) number of deposits.

Estimates are by deposit type and must be consistent with 

the grade and tonnage model and not with the population of 

mineral occurrences or weak manifestations of an ore-forming 

process (Singer, 1994a). Thus, the estimated number of deposits must match the percentile values of the grade and tonnage 

model. For example, for any estimate, approximately half of 

the estimated undiscovered deposits should be larger than the 

median tonnage and about 10 percent of the deposits should be 

as large as the upper 10 percent of the deposits in the tonnage 

model. If the grade and tonnage model is based on district 

data, then the number of undiscovered districts should be estimated. Some mineral deposit models, such as kuroko massive 

sulfide deposits, were constructed with spatial distance rules 

such as a 500-meter rule for combining mineralization—the 

same rule must be applied when the number of undiscovered 

deposits is estimated. Deposits in the study area that have published grades and tonnages are counted as discovered deposits, 

whereas those without published estimates are counted as 

undiscovered to avoid double counting.

Guidelines for Estimates

There are no fixed methods for making estimates of the 

number of undiscovered deposits. On the basis of experience 

and logic, however, at least seven different ways can be used 

directly or as guidelines to make these estimates (table 1). 

Each guideline represents some form of analogy. Most robust 

of these is a form of mineral deposit model wherein the number of deposits of each type per unit area from well-explored 

regions (Bliss and Menzie, 1993; Singer and others, 2001, 

2005) is counted and the resulting frequency distribution is 

Figure 2. Graph showing three estimates (dark bars) of the 

number of undiscovered deposits along with interpolated values 

(light bars). The estimates were made at the 90, 50, and 10 percent 

quantiles. A large difference in the estimates at 90 and 10 percent 

would suggest great uncertainty, but this graph shows a relatively 

small difference. PROBABILITY OF 

N OR MORE DEPOSITS

NUMBER OF DEPOSITS, N

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Table 1. Guidelines for estimation of the number of deposits.

[Modified from Singer, 1993]

Guideline Example Reference

Frequency of deposits from well-explored areas 1. U.S., Alaska

2. Western U.S.

3. Costa Rica

4. Venezuela

5. Australia

6. General

1. MacKevett and others, 1978

2. Drew and others, 1986

3. Singer, 1994b

4. Cox, 1993

5. Scott, 2000

6. Bliss and Menzie, 1993

Local deposit extrapolations 1. U.S., Alaska

2. U.S., Alaska

3. Japan

1. Singer and MacKevett, 1977

2. Root and others, 1992

3. Kouda and Singer, 1992

Counting and assigning probabilities to anomalies 1. U.S., Alaska

2. Puerto Rico

1. Reed and others, 1989

2. Cox, 1993

Process constraints 1. Worldwide 1. Drew and Menzie, 1993

Relative frequencies of related deposit types 1. Worldwide 1. Drew and Menzie, 1993

Area spatial limits 1. Worldwide 1. Singer and Mosier, 1981

Total known metal 1. U.S. 1. Singer, 1993

Estimating Amounts of Undiscovered Mineral Resources  81
82 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

used either directly for an estimate or indirectly as a guideline in some other method. Although Allais (1957) used this 

method of estimating the number of undiscovered deposits, 

many kinds of deposits were mixed together in his analysis.

In most three-part assessments, the final estimates were 

made subjectively, and many estimators used one or more of 

the above methods as guidelines. For example (see Singer and 

others, 2001), in the State of Nevada there are seven known 

deposits that are defined in the same way as deposits in the 

porphyry copper descriptive and grade and tonnage models. 

The tract permissive for all pluton-related deposits, including 

porphyry copper, covers about 41 percent of the area of the 

State (Cox and others, 1996). The well-explored, exposed permissive rocks in Nevada cover an area of about 32,800 square 

kilometers; five of the known porphyry copper deposits are in 

this exposed region. Areas covered by more than 1 kilometer 

of overburden are excluded from consideration. Concealed 

permissive areas within 1 kilometer of the surface are about 

84,500 square kilometers in extent. Two of the known porphyry copper deposits are completely covered by younger 

materials and cannot be considered to belong to the population 

of deposits that are well explored and exposed.

If we assume that there are no additional porphyry copper 

deposits to be discovered in the exposed plutons in Nevada, 

then 5 deposits per 32,800 square kilometers (exposed permissive area) equals 0.00015 porphyry copper deposits per square 

kilometer. We can use this density of deposits to estimate the 

expected (mean) number of undiscovered porphyry copper 

deposits in Nevada. Thus, 0.00015 porphyry copper deposits 

per square kilometer times 84,500 square kilometers of covered permissive area equals an expected 12.9 concealed deposits; subtracting the 2 discovered deposits leaves 11 undiscovered concealed deposits that are defined in the same way as the 

deposits in the porphyry copper grade and tonnage model. For 

comparison purposes, the subjective estimate of the number of 

undiscovered porphyry copper deposits in Nevada by Cox and 

others (1996) is 8.7 deposits.

In an unpublished example, four scientists (participants 

A–D) made subjective probabilistic estimates of the number of 

undiscovered hot-spring mercury deposits in a 1:250,000-scale 

quadrangle in Alaska. They made independent estimates at the 

90th, 50th, and 10th complementary percentiles (table 2). The 

estimate at the 10th percentile, for example, is the number of 

deposits for which there is at least a 10 percent chance of that 

number of deposits or more. It was pointed out to participant 

D that, because the number of deposit estimates must be consistent with the grade and tonnage model, his estimates imply 

that there is more undiscovered mercury in this quadrangle 

than has been found in the world in this deposit type. He 

replied that he was estimating wisps of cinnabar, not deposits 

consistent with the grade and tonnage model. In this case, 

knowledge of the total known amount of metal provided a 

guide to a flawed estimate. Using a variety of different guidelines for estimates provides a useful crosscheck of assumptions that may have been relied upon.

Estimation Strategies

In practice, a small group of scientists who are knowledgeable about the deposit type (and advised by the regional 

experts) typically make consensus estimates. Two general 

strategies tend to be used (Menzie and Singer, 1990). In one, 

individual occurrences, prospects, and indicators are assigned 

probabilities, and the results are combined. In the other, the 

estimator recalls from experience many other areas that are 

geologically similar to the area being assessed and are well 

explored and uses the proportions of undiscovered deposits 

in these other areas to make the estimates for the new area. In 

each case, the scientists must weigh the geoscience and exploration information. A number of the guidelines for making 

these estimates listed in table 1 were used by a team estimating undiscovered resources in Nevada (Cox and others, 1996). 

Some estimators used the number of known deposits per unit 

area of exposed permissive rocks multiplied by the area of 

permissive rock concealed by less than 1 kilometer of overburden (postmineralization rocks and sedimentary deposits), as in 

the above example of porphyry copper deposits. Some based 

their estimates on the number of deposits known in well-studied areas of similar geology elsewhere in the world. Others 

depended on the number of occurrences that might become 

deposits as a result of more complete exploration, and still 

others were influenced by the number of exploration “plays” 

that could be visualized for the deposit type in question. Until 

more estimation guidelines and density of deposits models are 

available, it seems prudent to rely on mineral deposit specialists to make subjective estimates because they can bring their 

experiences and observations to the process.

Subjective probabilities such as those used here variously 

have been called degrees of belief or propositional probabilities. Geologists commonly make similar estimates that, 

although not explicitly quantitative, are subjective and have 

uncertainty, such as making geologic cross sections. Examples 

from different fields of study (Murphy and Winkler, 1984; 

Stern, 1991) demonstrate that, under some conditions, subjective estimates can be unbiased and reliable. The decades of 

experience of subjective and objective forecasting in meteorology provide insight into how the process of making subjective 

assessments in mineral resources might be improved. Murphy 

Table 2. Independent estimates by four scientists (A, B, C, and 

D) of the number of undiscovered hot-spring mercury deposits in 

a quadrangle in Alaska.

Percentile Estimates by participant

A B C D

90 percent chance of at least the number 

of deposits listed 1 1 2 9,000

50 percent chance of at least the number 

of deposits listed 3 2 4 10,000

10 percent chance of at least the number 

of deposits listed 6 6 7 11,000
and Winkler (1984) found that consensus schemes performed 

better than almost all individual forecasters and that the best 

forecasts were made when objective forecasts were part of 

the information supplied to subjective forecasters. Among 

their recommendations were more effective use of many 

information sources, motivation to encourage forecasters to 

improve their performance, provision of formal procedures 

to assist forecasters in quantifying their uncertainty in terms 

of probability, and quick and extensive feedback concerning 

performance. Quick and extensive feedback might be difficult 

to apply in mineral resource assessments, except possibly 

through training exercises.

Sensitivity analysis shows that the greatest opportunity 

for reducing uncertainty in exploration and resource assessment lies with lowering the uncertainty associated with 

tonnage estimates (Singer and Kouda, 1999). Consequently, 

selection of the proper grade and tonnage model is probably 

more critical to the final assessment than small errors in estimates of the number of deposits.

Conclusions

The goal of many assessors is to make unbiased quantitative assessments in a format needed in decision-support 

systems so that the consequences of alternative courses of 

action can be examined. Internally consistent descriptive, 

grade and tonnage, deposit density, and economic models and 

the design of three-part assessments reduce the chances of 

biased estimates of the undiscovered resources. Biases can be 

introduced into these estimates either by a flawed grade and 

tonnage model or by the lack of consistency of the grade and 

tonnage model with estimates of the number of deposits.

Estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits explicitly represent the probability (or degree of belief) that some 

fixed but unknown number of undiscovered deposits exist in 

the delineated tracts. As such, these estimates reflect both the 

uncertainty of what may exist and a measure of the favorability of the existence of the deposit type. Although there are no 

fixed methods for making estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits, guidelines to help make these estimates are 

available. Using a variety of different guidelines for estimates 

both provides a useful crosscheck of assumptions that may 

have been relied upon and significantly reduces the chances of 

biased estimates.

Until more estimation guidelines and deposit density 

models are available, it seems prudent to rely on mineral 

deposit specialists to make subjective estimates because 

the specialists can bring their experiences and observations 

to the process. This kind of activity is not unusual; geologists commonly make estimates that, although not explicitly 

quantitative, are subjective and have uncertainty, such as 

making geologic cross sections. Experience from meteorology 

suggests that consensus schemes perform better than almost 

all individual estimators and that the best estimates are made 

when objective estimates such as those from guides (table 1) 

are part of the information supplied to subjective estimators.

Sensitivity analysis shows that the greatest opportunity 

for reducing uncertainty in exploration and resource assessment lies with lowering the uncertainty associated with 

tonnage estimates. Consequently, selection of the proper 

grade and tonnage model is probably more critical to the final 

assessment than small errors in estimates of the number of 

deposits.

References Cited

Allais, M., 1957, Method of appraising economic prospects of 

mining exploration over large territories—Algerian Sahara 

case study: Management Science, v. 3, no. 4, p. 285–347.

Bliss, J.D., and Menzie, W.D., 1993, Spatial mineral deposit 

models and the prediction of undiscovered mineral deposits, 

in Kirkham, R.V., Sinclair, W.D., Thorpe, R.I., and Duke, 

J.M., eds., Mineral deposit modeling: Geological Association of Canada Special Paper 40, p. 693–706.

Cox, D.P., 1993, Estimation of undiscovered deposits in 

quantitative mineral resource assessments—Examples from 

Venezuela and Puerto Rico: Nonrenewable Resources, v. 2, 

no. 2, p. 82–91.

Cox, D.P., Ludington, Steve, Berger, B.R., Moring, B.C., Sherlock, M.G., Singer, D.A., and Tingley, J.V., 1996, Delineation of mineral resource assessment tracts and estimates of 

numbers of undiscovered deposits in Nevada, chap. 12 of

Singer, D.A., ed., An analysis of Nevada’s metal-bearing 

mineral resources: Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geo­logy 

Open-File Report 96–2, p. 12.1–12.25, 3 sheets, scale 

1:1,000,000. (Also available online at 

http://www.nbmg.unr.edu/dox/ofr962/index.htm.)

Drew, L.J., Bliss, J.D., Bowen, R.W., Bridges, N.J., Cox, D.P., 

DeYoung, J.H., Houghton, J.C., Ludington, S.D., Menzie, 

W.D., Page, N.J, Root, D.H., and Singer, D.A., 1986, Quantitative estimation of undiscovered mineral resources—A 

case study of U.S. Forest Service wilderness tracts in the 

Pacific Mountain system: Economic Geology, v. 81, no. 1, 

p. 80–88.

Drew, L.J., and Menzie, W.D., 1993, Is there a metric for 

mineral deposit occurrence probabilities?: Nonrenewable 

Resources, v. 2, no. 2, p. 92–105.

Drew, L.J., Singer, D.A., Menzie, W.D., and Berger, B.R., 

1999, Mineral-resource assessment—State of the art, in

Ódor, László, Korpás, László, McCammon, R.B., and 

Hofstra, A.H., eds., Deposit modeling and mining-induced 

environmental risks: Geologica Hungarica Serie Geologica, 

v. 24, p. 31–40.

Estimating Amounts of Undiscovered Mineral Resources  83
84  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Harris, D.P., 1984, Mineral resources appraisal; Mineral endowment, resources, and potential supply—Concepts, methods, 

and cases: Oxford, Oxford University Press, 445 p.

Kouda, Ryoichi, and Singer, D.A., 1992, A resource assessment of kuroko deposits in the Akita region of Japan [abs.]: 

International Geological Congress, 29th, Kyoto, 1992, 

Abstracts, v. 1, p. 83.

MacKevett, E.M., Jr., Singer, D.A., and Holloway, C.D., 1978, 

Maps and tables describing metalliferous mineral resource 

potential of southern Alaska: U.S. Geological Survey OpenFile Report 78–1–E, 45 p., 2 sheets, scale 1:1,000,000.

Menzie, W.D., and Singer, D.A., 1990, A course on mineral 

resource assessment, in Proceedings of ISME–AI’90—

International Symposium on Mineral Exploration, The Use 

of Artificial Intelligence, 1990, Tokyo and Tsukuba, Japan: 

Tokyo, Mining and Materials Processing Institute of Japan, 

p. 177–188.

Murphy, A.H., and Winkler, R.L., 1984, Probability forecasting in meteorology: Journal of the American Statistical 

Association, v. 79, no. 387, p. 489–500.

Reed, B.L., Menzie, W.D., McDermott, M., Root, D.H., Scott, 

W., and Drew, L.J., 1989, Undiscovered lode tin resources 

of the Seward Peninsula, Alaska: Economic Geology, v. 84, 

no. 7, p. 1936–1947.

Root, D.H., Menzie, W.D., and Scott, W.A., 1992, Computer 

Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative resource estimation: 

Nonrenewable Resources, v. 1, no. 2, p. 125–138.

Scott, Margaretha, 2000, Valuing Australian state geological 

surveys—Quantitative analysis for strategic planning: St. 

Lucia, The University of Queensland, Ph.D. dissertation, 

541 p.

Shulman, M., Burger, H., Kliem, C., and Skala, W., 1992, 

Review of resource analysis and related studies—Working 

Group, Mathematical Geology, freie Universität Berlin: 

Nonrenewable Resources, v. 1, no. 1, p. 97–106.

Singer, D.A., 1993, Basic concepts in three-part quantitative 

assessments of undiscovered mineral resources: Nonrenewable Resources, v. 2, no. 2, p. 69–81.

Singer, D.A., 1994a, The relationship of estimated number of 

undiscovered deposits to grade and tonnage models in threepart mineral resource assessments, in 1994 International 

Association for Mathematical Geology Annual Conference, 

Papers and Extended Abstracts for Technical Programs, Oct. 

3–5, 1994, Mont Tremblant, Quebec, Canada: p. 325–326.

Singer, D.A., 1994b, Conditional estimates of the number of 

podiform chromite deposits: Nonrenewable Resources, v. 3, 

no. 3, p. 200–204.

Singer, D.A., Berger, V.I., Menzie, W.D., and Berger, B.R., 

2005, Porphyry copper deposit density: Economic Geology, 

v. 100, no. 3, p. 491–514.

Singer, D.A., and Kouda, Ryoichi, 1999, Examining risk in 

mineral exploration: Natural Resources Research, v. 8, 

no. 2, p. 111–122.

Singer, D.A., and MacKevett, E.M., Jr., 1977, Mineral 

resources map of the McCarthy quadrangle, Alaska: U.S. 

Geological Survey Miscellaneous Field Studies Map 

MF–773–C, 1 sheet, scale 1:250,000.

Singer, D.A., Menzie, W.D., Sutphin, D.M., Mosier, D.L., 

and Bliss, J.D., 2001, Mineral deposit density—An update, 

chap. A of Schulz, K.J., ed., Contributions to global mineral 

resource assessment research: U.S. Geological Survey 

Profes­sional Paper 1640, p. A1–A13. (Also available online 

at http://pubs.usgs.gov/prof/p1640A/.)

Singer, D.A., and Mosier, D.L., 1981, The relation between 

exploration economics and the characteristics of mineral 

deposits, in Ramsey, J.B., ed., The economics of exploration 

for energy resources: Greenwich, Connecticut, JAI Press, 

p. 313–326.

Stern, Hal, 1991, On the probability of winning a football 

game: American Statistician, v. 45, no. 3, p. 179–183.
1

U.S. Geological Survey, Mail Stop 901, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo 

Park, CA 94025, U.S.A. (e-mail: wnokleberg@usgs.gov).

2

Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys; currently at 

Pacific Rim Geological Consulting, Inc.

3

Geological Survey of Canada; currently at Terra Geological Consultants.

4

Russian Academy of Sciences.

5

Geological Survey of Canada.

6

Deceased; formerly at Russian Academy of Sciences.

7

Russian Academy of Sciences; currently at Russian Ministry of Natural 

Resources.

Overview of Methodology of Combined Regional Metallogenic and 

Tectonic Analysis

By Warren J. Nokleberg,1 Thomas K. Bundtzen,2 Kenneth M. Dawson,3

Roman A. Eremin,4 Nikolai A. Goryachev,4 Alexander I. Khanchuk,4

James W.H. Monger,5 Alexander A. Obolenskiy,4 Leonid M. Parfenov,6

Vladimir V. Ratkin,4 Sergey M. Rodionov,4 and Vladimir I. Shpikerman7

data to consider in land use and mineral exploration planning, 

(4) improvement of interpretations of origins of host rocks, 

mineral deposits, and metallogenic belts, and (5) guidelines 

for new research.

Introduction

This paper presents an overview of the methodology 

and key definitions for combined regional metallogenic and 

tectonic analysis, provides a theoretical example of this type 

of analysis, and describes an example for this type of analysis 

for Late Cretaceous and early Tertiary igneous-arc-related 

deposits in the Circum-North Pacific (Russian Far East, 

Alaska, and Canadian Cordillera). The major sections of this 

paper are (1) definitions, compilations, and syntheses needed 

for a combined metallogenic and tectonic analysis, (2) theoretical example of methodology, (3) synthesis of a combined 

metallogenic and tectonic model, (4) benefits of performing a 

combined regional metallogenic and tectonic analysis, and (5) 

summary.

In the past, three types of problems have limited some 

metallogenic and tectonic analyses: (1) a concentration of 

some metallogenic studies on the features of mineral deposits 

and districts without any regional compilation, synthesis, and 

interpretation, (2) a lack of integration of regional studies of 

host rocks, structures, and tectonic origins with respect to 

contained suites of mineral deposits, and (3) in some regions, 

application of a stabilistic tectonic philosophy. In contrast, 

this paper demonstrates the power of a combined regional 

and metallogenic and tectonic analysis that requires (1) use of 

modern concepts and mineral deposit databases, (2) formulation of mineral deposit models, (3) construction of regional 

geologic and metallogenic belt maps, (4) interpretation of 

major geologic units and contained mineral deposits according 

to latest tectonic methods, and (5) synthesis of an integrated 

metallogenic and tectonic model.

This paper is derived from relatively recent metallogenic 

studies by the U.S. Geological Survey, including (1) a series of 

Abstract

The compilation, synthesis, description, and interpretation of metallogenesis and tectonic history of major regions, 

such as the Circum-North Pacific (Russian Far East, Alaska, 

and Canadian Cordillera) and Northeast Asia, constitute a 

complex process. The complex process includes (1) definitions 

of key terms, (2) compilation of a regional geologic base map 

that can be interpreted according to modern tectonic concepts 

and definitions, (3) compilation of a mineral deposit database 

that enables the determination of mineral deposit models, relation of deposits to host rocks, and tectonic origins, (4) synthesis of a series of mineral deposit models that characterize the 

known mineral deposits and inferred undiscovered deposits 

of the region, (5) compilation of a series of maps of metallogenic belts constructed on the regional geologic base map, 

and (6) formulation of a metallogenic and tectonic model. 

This paper presents an overview of the methodology used for 

the Circum-North Pacific and Northeast Asia and an example 

of a metallogenic and tectonic model for the origin of Late 

Cretaceous and early Tertiary igneous-arc-related deposits in 

the Circum-North Pacific. This paper also describes how a 

high-quality metallogenic and tectonic analysis and synthesis 

of an associated metallogenic and tectonic model will provide 

the following benefits: (1) refinement of mineral deposit models and of the understanding of deposit genesis, (2) improvement of assessments of undiscovered mineral resources as 

part of quantitative mineral resource assessment studies, (3) 
86  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

regional geologic, mineral deposit, and metallogenic belt maps 

of the Russian Far East, Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera 

(Nokleberg and others, 1997a,b,c; Nokleberg, West, and others, 1998), (2) a series of metallogenic and tectonic analyses 

of the same region (Nokleberg and others, 1995, 2000, 2001, 

2003; Scotese and others, 2001), and (3) a series of similar publications being prepared for Northeast Asia (Eastern 

Russia, Mongolia, Northeast China, South Korea, and Japan) 

(Nokleberg and others, 1999).

Definitions, Compilations, and 

Syntheses Needed for a Combined 

Metallogenic and Tectonic Analysis

For a metallogenic and tectonic analysis, the key goal is 

to define, analyze, and interpret the crustal origin and evolution of mineralizing systems. To achieve this goal, the following materials are needed: (1) definitions of key terms, (2) a 

regional geologic base map that can be interpreted according 

to modern tectonic concepts and definitions, (3) a mineral 

deposit database that enables the determination of mineral 

deposit models, relation of deposits to host rocks, and tectonic 

origins, (4) a series of mineral deposit models that characterize 

the known mineral deposits and inferred undiscovered deposits 

of the region, (5) a series of metallogenic belt maps constructed on the regional geologic base map, and (6) a metallogenic and tectonic model. Figure 1 illustrates these materials 

and the methodology for synthesizing a combined metallogenic and tectonic model. In this figure, parts 1 and 2 portray 

a regional geologic base map and a metallogenic belt overlay. 

Part 3 portrays a mineral deposit database and mineral deposit 

models. Part 4 portrays the major steps for synthesizing a 

metallogenic and tectonic model. Part 5 portrays one stage 

of the model. Part 6 portrays the applications resulting from 

this type of analysis. These applications provide the following 

benefits: (1) refinement of mineral deposit models and of the 

understanding of deposit genesis, (2) improvement of assessments of undiscovered mineral resources as part of quantitative mineral resource assessment studies, (3) data to consider 

in land use and mineral exploration planning, (4) improvement 

of interpretations of origins of host rocks, mineral deposits, 

and metallogenic belts, and (5) guidelines for new research.

Figure 1. Diagram showing major components of a metallogenic analysis and synthesis of a metallogenic and tectonic model.

Parts 1 & 2

Regional

geologic base 

map and 

metallogenic

(MET) belt 

map overlay

Part 5

Red Hill porphyry 

Cu

Dead Creek 

porphyry Au

Blue Ridge Ag-Au 

epithermal vein

Goat Hill Cu-Zn 

skarn

Golden Mountain 

polymetallic vein

Drenchwood

Sb-Au vein

Tectonic 

environments

Correlation of 

terranes

Linkage of 

terranes

Original loci

Paleomagnetic

latitudes

Migration paths

Part 3

Mineral deposit

database and mineral 

deposit models

Part 4

Steps for construction 

of metallogenic and 

tectonic model

Part 6

Applications

Refinement of mineral 

deposit models and 

understanding of 

deposit genesis

Improvement

of mineral 

resource

assessment

Data for land 

use and mineral 

exploration

planning

Guidelines

for new 

research

Improvement of interpretations of 

genesis of host rocks, mineral 

deposits, and metallogenic belts

OCEANIC

PLATE

BACK-ARC

TERRANE

SUBDUCTION

ZONE TERRANE

EAST SIKHOTEALIN ARC

EAST SIKHOTEALIN ARC

PACIFIC 

PLATE

SUBDUCTION

ZONE TERRANE

COLLAGE

LATE CRETACEOUS 

STAGE

SIKHOTE

MET BELT COLLAGE

SIKHOTE

MET BELT

Metallogenic and tectonic model
Key Definitions for a Metallogenic and Tectonic 

Analysis

For the compilation, synthesis, description, and interpretation of metallogenic belts, the following mineral deposit, 

metallogenic, and tectonic definitions are used. The definitions 

are adapted from Coney and others (1980), Jones and others 

(1983), Howell and others (1985), Monger and Berg (1987), 

Wheeler and others (1988), Nokleberg, Bundtzen, and others 

(1994), Nokleberg, Parfenov, and others (1994), Nokelberg 

and others (2001), and Scotese and others (2001).

accretion Tectonic juxtaposition of two or more terranes, or 

tectonic juxtaposition of terranes to a craton margin. Accretion 

of terranes to one another or to a craton margin also defines a 

major change in the tectonic evolution of terranes and craton 

margins.

accretionary wedge and subduction-zone terrane Fragment 

of a mildly to intensely deformed complex consisting of varying 

amounts of turbidite deposits, continental-margin rocks, oceanic 

crust and overlying units, and oceanic mantle. Divided into units 

composed predominantly of turbidite deposits or predominantly 

of oceanic rocks. Units are interpreted to have formed during tectonic juxtaposition in a zone of major thrusting of one lithosphere 

plate beneath another, generally in zones of thrusting along the 

margin of a continent or an island arc. May include large faultbounded units having a coherent stratigraphy. Many subductionzone terranes contain fragments of oceanic crust and associated 

rocks that exhibit a complex structural history, occur in a major 

thrust zone, and possess blueschist-facies metamorphism.

collage of terranes Groups of tectonostratigraphic terranes, 

generally in oceanic areas, for which insufficient data exist to 

separate units.

continental-margin arc terrane Fragment of an igneous 

belt of coeval plutonic and volcanic rocks and associated sedimentary rocks that formed above a subduction zone dipping 

beneath a continent. Inferred to possess a sialic basement.

craton Chiefly regionally metamorphosed and deformed 

shield assemblages of Archean and Early Proterozoic sedimentary, volcanic, and plutonic rocks, and overlying platform 

successions of Paleoproterozoic, Paleozoic, and local Mesozoic and Cenozoic sedimentary rocks containing some volcanic rocks.

craton margin Chiefly Late Proterozoic through Jurassic 

sedimentary rocks deposited on a continental shelf or slope. 

Consists mainly of platform successions. Locally has, or may 

have had, an Archean and Early Proterozoic cratonal basement.

cratonal terrane Fragment of a craton.

deposit A general term for any lode or placer mineral occurrence, mineral deposit, prospect, and (or) mine.

island-arc terrane Fragment of an igneous belt of plutonic 

rocks, coeval volcanic rocks, and associated sedimentary rocks 

that formed above an oceanic subduction zone. Inferred to 

possess a simatic basement.

metallogenic belt A geologic unit (area) that either contains 

or is favorable for a group of coeval and genetically related, 

significant lode and placer deposits described by deposit 

models (Nokleberg and others, 1997a,b; Nokelberg, West, and 

others 1998). A metallogenic belt (1) is favorable for known 

or inferred mineral deposits of a specific type or types, (2) can 

be of irregular shape and variable size, (3) need not contain 

known deposits, and (4) is based on a geologic map as the 

primary source of information for delineating areas that are 

favorable for deposits described by various deposit models. An 

essential part of the definition is that a belt is defined as the 

geologically favorable area for a group of coeval and genetically related mineral deposits. This definition provides a predictive character for undiscovered deposits in each belt.

metamorphic terrane Fragment of a highly metamorphosed 

or deformed assemblage of sedimentary, volcanic, or plutonic 

rocks that cannot be assigned to a single tectonic environment 

because the original stratigraphy and structure are obscured. 

Includes intensely deformed structural mélanges that contain 

intensely deformed fragments of two or more terranes.

metamorphosed-continental-margin terrane Fragment of 

a passive continental margin, in places moderately to highly 

metamorphosed and deformed, that cannot be linked with certainty to the nearby craton margin. May be derived either from 

a nearby craton margin or from a distant site.

mine A site where valuable minerals have been extracted.

mineral deposit A site having concentrations of potentially 

valuable minerals for which grade and tonnage estimates have 

been made.

mineral occurrence A site having potentially valuable 

minerals on which no visible exploration has occurred or for 

which no grade and tonnage estimates have been made.

oceanic crust, seamount, and ophiolite terrane Fragment 

of part or all of a suite of eugeoclinal deep-marine sedimentary rocks, pillow basalt, gabbro, and ultramafic rocks that 

are interpreted as oceanic sedimentary and volcanic rocks 

and the upper mantle. Includes both inferred offshore oceanic 

and marginal ocean basin rocks, minor volcaniclastic rocks of 

magmatic arc derivation, and major marine volcanic accumulations formed at a hotspot, fracture zone, or spreading axis.

overlap assemblage A postaccretion unit of sedimentary or 

igneous rocks deposited on, or intruded into, two or more adjacent terranes. The sedimentary and volcanic parts either depositionally overlie, or are interpreted to have originally depositionally overlain, two or more adjacent terranes or terranes and 

the craton margin. Overlapping plutonic rocks, which may be 

coeval and genetically related to overlap volcanic rocks, link 

or stitch together adjacent terranes or a terrane and a craton 

margin.

passive-continental-margin terrane Fragment of a craton 

margin.

postaccretion rock unit Suite of sedimentary, volcanic, or 

plutonic rocks that formed in the late history of a terrane, after 

accretion. May occur also on adjacent terranes or on the craton 

margin either as an overlap assemblage or as a basinal deposit. 

A relative-time term denoting rocks formed after tectonic juxtaposition of one terrane to an adjacent terrane.

preaccretion rock unit Suite of sedimentary, volcanic, or 

plutonic rocks that formed in the early history of a terrane, 

Overview of Methodology of Combined Regional Metallogenic and Tectonic Analysis  87
88  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

before accretion. Constitutes the stratigraphy and igneous 

geology inherent to a terrane. A relative-time term denoting 

rocks formed before tectonic juxtaposition of one terrane to an 

adjacent terrane.

prospect A site having potentially valuable minerals in 

which excavation has occurred.

significant mineral deposit A mine, mineral deposit, prospect, or occurrence that is judged as important for the metallogenesis of a geographic region.

subterrane A fault-bounded unit within a terrane that 

exhibits similar, but not identical, geologic history relative to 

another fault-bounded unit in the same terrane.

superterrane An aggregate of terranes that is interpreted 

to share either a similar stratigraphic kindred or affinity or a 

common geologic history after accretion (Moore, 1992). An 

approximate synonym is “composite terrane” (Plafker and 

Berg, 1994).

tectonic linkage The interpreted association of a suite of 

coeval tectonic units that formed in the same region and as 

the result of the same tectonic processes. An example is the 

linking of a coeval continental-margin arc, fore-arc deposits, a 

back-arc rift assemblage, and a subduction-zone complex, all 

related to the underthrusting of a continental margin by oceanic crust.

tectonostratigraphic terrane A fault-bounded geologic 

entity or fragment that is characterized by a distinctive geologic history that differs markedly from that of adjacent terranes (Jones and others, 1983; Howell and others, 1985).

transform continental-margin arc An igneous belt of 

coeval plutonic and volcanic rocks and associated sedimentary 

rocks that formed along a transform fault that occurs along the 

margin of a craton, passive continental margin, and (or) collage of terranes accreted to a continental margin.

turbidite basin terrane Fragment of a basin filled with deepmarine clastic deposits in either an orogenic fore-arc or back-arc 

setting. May include continental-slope and continental-­rise turbidite deposits and submarine-fan turbidite deposits deposited 

on oceanic crust. May include minor epiclastic and volcaniclastic deposits.

Regional Geologic Base Map

To define a metallogenic belt map for a metallogenic 

analysis, a regional geologic base map must be constructed 

that permits the display of a belt as a function of the hostrock geology or host-rock structures (Nokleberg and others, 

1997a,b,c; Nokleberg, West, and others, 1998). To facilitate 

analysis of geologic relations and permit the estimation of 

undiscovered mineral deposits, the geologic base map must be 

constructed at the scale of the assessment and show the major 

geologic data that can be related to the presence of mineral 

deposits in each belt. Because metallogenic belts are generally 

of large areal extent, interpretation of the tectonic origin of 

host-rock geologic units must be considered in order to display 

the geologic controls over formation of groups of mineral 

deposits in a specific metallogenic belt.

An example of regional geologic base maps is portrayed 

in figure 2, which illustrates (1) a regional terrane and overlap 

assemblage (regional geologic) map for the Russian Far East 

(derived from Nokleberg and others, 1997b,c; Nokleberg, 

West, and others, 1998) and (2) major Late Cretaceous and 

early Tertiary igneous-arc-related metallogenic belts for the 

region. On the figure are the major Cretaceous and Cenozoic 

continental-margin arcs that host a large suite of igneous-arcrelated metallogenic belts. The two major arcs are the East 

Sikhote-Alin arc and the Okhotsk-Chukotka arc. As background, the map also displays cratons, craton margins, previously accreted terranes of various types (cratonal, island arc, 

continental-margin arc, subduction zone, accretionary wedge), 

fore-arc and back-arc basins, major faults (sutures) bounding 

terranes, major active continental-margin arcs (Kuril-Kamchatka and Aleutian arcs), companion, outboard active subduction zones, and active faults.

Two major considerations exist for constructing a 

regional geologic map for a metallogenic analysis. (1) The 

regional geologic base map should display host-rock geology 

and structures that are related to metallogenic belts. For the 

Russian Far East (fig. 2), the regional geologic map displays 

the extent of surface outcrops of the major volcanic-plutonic 

arcs (East Sikhote-Alin and Okhotsk-Chukotka) that have and 

(or) are assessed to have potential for undiscovered igneousrock-related mineral deposits described by deposit models 

(Nokleberg and others, 1997b,c; Nokleberg, West, and others, 

1998). (2) Inclusion of graphic and descriptive data on the 

tectonic origin of host-rock geologic units is needed to establish the geologic controls for formation of groups of mineral 

deposits in metallogenic belts.

Tectonic Environments

For a modern metallogenic and tectonic analysis, interpretation of tectonic environments is essential for interpreting the geologic origin of major units and contained mineral 

deposits and metallogenic belts. The interpretation of tectonic 

environment is a key method for linking geologic origins of 

these sometimes disparate datasets. In addition, as described 

below, interpretation of tectonic environments for mineral 

deposits is also an important facet of developing mineral 

deposit models. For tectonic analyses of the Circum-North 

Pacific and Northeast Asia (Nokleberg and others, 1999, 2001, 

2003; Scotese and others, 2001), major geologic units (terranes, overlap assemblages, plates), mineral deposits, mineral 

deposit types, and metallogenic belts are described according 

to the following interpreted dominant tectonic environments: 

(1) cratonal, (2) passive continental margin, (3) metamorphosed continental margin, (4) continental-margin arc, (5) 

island arc, (6) oceanic crust, seamount, or ophiolite, (7) accretionary wedge and subduction zone, (8) turbidite basin, and 

(9) metamorphic, for terranes that are so highly deformed and 
Figure 2. Regional geologic and tectonic map showing major postaccretionary, igneous-arc-related metallogenic belts hosted in 

Late Cretaceous through early Tertiary continental-margin igneous arcs in the Russian Far East. Adapted from Nokleberg and others 

(1997b,c) and Nokleberg, West, and others (1998).

168° W

76°

68°

68°

60°

60°

52°

52°

144° E

144° E

168° E

120° E

168° E

168° W

76°

120° E

EXPLANATION

Overlapping middle and late Tertiary

magmatic arcs 

CONTACTS AND FAULTS

Jurassic, Cretaceous, and Tertiary accretionarywedge and subduction-zone terranes 

Craton, craton-margin, and passive continentalmargin terranes

PAC Pacific oceanic plate

Active subduction zone

Thrust fault

Major mid-Cretaceous and younger

 strike-slip transform fault

NSC North Asian Craton 

NSS North Asian Craton - Stanovoy Block

NSV North Asian Craton Margin 

KN Kular-Nera

Contact

Middle and late Tertiary back-arc

units

Overlapping Middle Jurassic and

Early Cretaceous magmatic arcs

and fore-arc and back-arc basins

Predominantly oceanic rocks

Clastic sedimentary basins

(Jurassic, Cretaceous,Tertiary)

Jurassic and Cretaceous islandarc terranes

Overlapping Cretaceous and early

Tertiary magmatic arcs

Overlap assemblages (Cretaceous

and Cenozoic) and undivided

terranes

Metallogenic belt KM

Overlapping Jurassic continentalmargin arcs and back-arc basins;

emplaced across NSS

0 800 KILOMETERS

0 800 MILES

KN

KN

KN

KN

Metallogenic Belts Associated

with East Sikhote-Alin Arc

 KM

 LA

 LZ

 SG

 TK - Taukha

- Sergeevka

- Luzhinsky

- Lower Amur

- Kema

EAST

SIKHOTEALIN ARC OKHOTSKCHUKOTKA

ARC

ACTIVE KURILKAMCHATKA ARC

ACTIVE

ALEUTIAN

ARC

Sea of

Okhotsk

NSC

NSC

NSS NSV

PAC Pacific

Ocean

Bering

Sea

Arctic

Ocean

(unmapped)

Active

Subduction Zone

Active

Subduction Zone

LATE CRETACEOUS AND EARLY TERTIARY 

SG

KM TK

LZ

LA

EAAT

EACN

EACH,

EAAB

EACH,

EACN,

EAAB

EAKY

EAKN

EAOM

EAVK

EAVK

EAOH

EAKY

EAOH

Zones of Eastern Asia Metallogenic Belt Associated with Okhotsk-Chukotka Arc

 EAAB

 EAAT

 EACH

 EACN

 EAKN

 EAKY

- Anuyi-Beringovsky zone

- Adycha-Taryn

- Chukotka zone

- Chaun zone

- Korkodon-Nahakhan zone

- Koni-Yablon zone

 EAOH

 EAOM

 EAVI

 EAVK

 EAVV

 EAVY

- Okhotsk zone

- Omsukchan zone

- Verkhoyansk Indigirka zone

- Verkhne-Kolyma zone

- Vostochno-Verkhoyansk zone

- Verkhne-Yudomsky zone

EAVY

EAVY

EAVI

EAAB

EAVV

Overview of Methodology of Combined Regional Metallogenic and Tectonic Analysis  89
90 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

(or) metamorphosed that determination of the original tectonic 

environment is difficult. For terranes having complex geologic 

histories, the chosen tectonic environment is the one most 

prevalent during the history of the terrane. Definitions of these 

tectonic environments are provided above.

Mineral Deposit Descriptions

Part of the core dataset for a metallogenic analysis is 

a high-quality description of the significant known mineral 

deposits of the region. The descriptions need to systematically 

characterize the significant mineral deposits with sufficient 

detail that one can determine their classification by mineral 

deposit model and origin, and the descriptions should provide 

tonnage and grade data if available (Nokleberg and others, 

1997a). The term “significant mineral deposit” is often used. 

As an example of mineral deposit data for a metallogenic 

analysis, table 1 provides sample descriptions of selected Cretaceous igneous-arc-related deposits for the Russian Far East.

Mineral Deposit Models

Modern metallogenic analyses of large regions require that 

mineral deposit models appropriate for the region be characterized, synthesized, and grouped so that they can be correlated 

with the regional tectonic processes that formed the known 

deposits. The beginning of this type of correlation between 

models and tectonic process is evident in many of the classic 

compilations of mineral deposit models (Eckstrand, 1984; Cox 

and Singer, 1986; Singer, 1993). As an example of mineral 

deposit models used in a large region, table 2 lists the mineral 

deposit models that were defined and described for a metallogenic analysis of the Circum-North Pacific (Russian Far East, 

Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera). For this large and complex region, a suite of 38 mineral deposit models was sufficient 

to describe the characteristic features of the 1,079 lode deposits 

and 148 placers (Nokleberg and others, 1996, 1997a). The models include previous descriptions from Eckstrand (1984) and 

Cox and Singer (1986), with modifications by the authors. 

The mineral deposit models listed in table 2 usually 

consist of both descriptive and genetic information that is 

systematically arranged to define the essential properties of 

a class or type of mineral deposits. However, some model 

types are based mainly on descriptive (empirical) information, in which instance the various attributes are recognized as 

essential even though their relations are unknown. An example 

of a descriptive mineral deposit model is the basaltic Cu-type, 

in which the empirical datum of a geologic association of 

Cu sulfides with relatively Cu-rich metabasalt or greenstone 

is the essential attribute. Some other types of models are 

defined by genetic (theoretical) considerations, in which case 

the attributes are related through some fundamental geologic 

process. An example is the W skarn deposit model, in which 

the genetic process of contact metasomatism is the essential 

attribute. For additional information on the methodology for 

defining mineral deposit models, the reader is referred to discussions by Eckstrand (1984) and Cox and Singer (1986).

Correlation of major tectonic events and environments with 

mineral deposit types (models) allows the necessary synthesis 

of mineral deposit models for a modern metallogenic analysis 

(Nokleberg and others, 1997a,b). Detailed analysis reveals that 

only a few types of tectonic events and corresponding environments exist for a wide array of mineral deposit models for this 

region. For the Russian Far East, Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera (table 3), only seven tectonic environments are needed 

to classify the origins of the 1,079 lode deposits of this large 

and complex region (Nokleberg and others, 2000, 2001, 2003). 

These tectonic environments are (1) subduction-related arc, (2) 

collisional (anatectic)-related arc, (3) postcollisional extension, 

(4) oceanic rift, (5) continental rift, (6) back-arc rift, and (7) 

transform continental-margin faulting and associated bimodal 

volcanic-plutonic belt. 

Metallogenic Belt Map

Metallogenic belt maps, along with an underlying 

regional geologic map (for example, terrane and overlap 

assemblage map), are basic elements of a regional metallogenic and tectonic analysis. For delineation of metallogenic 

belts, the following main principles are used (Nokleberg and 

others, 2000).

Mineral deposit association. Each metallogenic belt 

includes deposits described by a single mineral deposit 

model or by a group of mineral deposit models describing 

coeval, closely located, and genetically related deposits. 

Tectonic event for formation of mineral deposits. Each 

metallogenic belt includes a group of coeval and genetically related mineral deposits that were formed as the 

result of a specific tectonic event (for example, subduction-related igneous arc, collision, accretion, rifting).

Favorable geological, geochemical, and geophysical 

environment. Each metallogenic belt contains host rocks, 

structures, geochemical anomalies or signatures, and geophysical anomalies or signatures that are favorable for the 

occurrence of a particular suite of mineral deposit types.

Geological or tectonic boundaries. Each metallogenic 

belt usually is bounded by contacts of favorable stratigraphic or magmatic units or by major faults (sutures) 

along which substantial translations commonly have 

occurred.

For the example of a metallogenic analysis for the 

Russian Far East, a regional metallogenic belt map (fig. 

2) portrays areas that contain and (or) are assessed to have 

potential for undiscovered igneous-rock-related deposits. The 

models for these deposits include Au-Ag epithermal vein, 

volcanic-hosted Hg (Plamennoe type), polymetallic vein, 

Sb-Au vein (simple Sb deposit), Cu (±Fe, Au, Ag, Mo) skarn, 

Zn-Pb (±Ag, Cu, W) skarn, Au, Co, and As skarn, Fe (±Au, 

1.

2.

3.

4.
Table 1. Examples of selected granitoid-related Au deposits for the Russian Far East. 

[Adapted from Nokleberg and others (1997a). g/t, grams per metric ton; t, metric ton]

Deposit No.

Latitude

Longitude

Summary and References

Deposit Name

Metallogenic Belt

Major Metals

Minor Metals

Deposit Model

Grade and Tonnage 

K53-10

42 52 18N

132 49 46E

Progress

Sergeevka

Au

Granitoid-related Au

Average grade of 5.89 g/t Au.

Consists of sulfide-poor pyrite-arsenopyrite-gold-quartz veins, small veinlets, poorly mineralized fracture zones, zones of mylonite, 

and zones altered to metasomatic carbonate-chlorite-sericite rocks. Deposit hosted in a Late Cretaceous granitic pluton that cuts a 

sequence of granite and gabbro of Sergeevka Complex with a Cambrian age of 500 to 527 Ma (J.N. Aleinikoff, written commun., 

1992). The deposit is prospected to depths of a few tens of meters. This lode is also the source for nearby placer Au deposits. 

References: A.N. Rodionov, written commun., 1991.

N51-03

54 27 00N

124 14 00E

Kirovskoe

Stanovoy

Au

Granitoid-related Au

About 10 t Au produced. 

Consists of northwest-striking gold-quartz-sulfide veins hosted in an Early Cretaceous granodiorite stock. Veins commonly occur 

along contacts of diabase porphyry dikes that cut the granodiorite. Contacts of veins are generally sharp, although host rock is 

hydrothermally altered. Veins range from 0.5 to 1.0 meter in thickness, and the surrounding altered rock ranges from 5.0 to 9.0 

meters in thickness. Altered rocks consist mainly of quartz, albite, sericite, and hydromica; the veins consist predominantly of 40 

to 95 percent quartz. Main sulfides are pyrrhotite, arsenopyrite, and chalcopyrite, with less abundant galena, sphalerite, bismutite, 

and tennantite-tetrahedrite. Gold ranges up to 0.28 millimeter in diameter. Fineness of 844 to 977. Deposit source for the placer 

deposits of the Dzhalinda, Yannan, and Ingagli Rivers, the largest in the Russian Far East. Mined until 1961. References: Gurov, 

1969; G.P. Kovtonyuk, written commun., 1990.

N52-02

53 27 00N

126 27 00E

Pioneer

North Bureya

Au

Granitoid-related Au

Average grade of 2.7 g/t Au and 

5.2 g/t Ag. Reserves of 17.1 t 

Au and 20.1 t Ag. 

Consists of quartz, quartz-feldspar, quartz-tourmaline, and quartz-carbonate veins and zones of altered quartz-potassium feldsparsericite-albite rocks. Zones are 1 to 50 meters thick and in plan commonly branch and change trends. Ore zones are large, have 

low Au content and no visible boundaries. Extent of deposit determined by geochemical sampling. Gold and gold-sulfide ore 

assemblages are distinguished. Gold assemblage consists of quartz-adularia-carbonate veins; gold-sulfide assemblage consists of 

quartz veins with pyrite, galena, stibnite, and silver sulfosalts. Deposit hosted along margin of an Early Cretaceous granodiorite 

intrusion, both within the intrusion and in adjacent contact metamorphosed Jurassic sandstone and siltstone. References: N.E. 

Malyamin and V.E. Bochkareva, written commun., 1990; V.N. Akatkin, written commun., 1991.

P55-35

61 27 32N

148 48 09E

Shkolnoe

Eastern Asia-Arctic, VerkhneKolyma zone

Au

Bi, Te, Ag

Granitoid-related Au

Total reserves 32 t Au. Averages 29 g/t Au and 45 g/t Ag. 

Has produced 17 t Au and 17 

t Ag since start of mining in 

1991. Annual production of 

3 t Au and 3 t Ag. 

An en echelon system of quartz veins trending generally east-west. Veins occur in a multiphase granitoid stock about 4 square 

kilometers in size composed mainly of granodiorite and adamellite. Stock is intruded by dikes of granite-porphyry, rhyolite, 

pegmatite, aplite, and lamprophyre. Quartz veins are surrounded by zones of beresitic and argillic alteration; skarnlike and 

greisenlike alteration is present locally. Mineralization occurred in two stages separated by intrusion of lamprophyre dikes: (1) 

gold-polymetallic stage marked by molybdenite, arsenopyrite, loellingite, native bismuth, bismuth tellurides, and native gold; 

(2) the most economically important stage, marked by arsenopyrite, pyrite, polymetallic sulfides, gold, electrum, freibergite, 

tetrahedrite, lead-antimony and silver sulfosalts, argentite, and stibnite. Gold ore bodies extend to great depth into a large zone of 

complicated mineralogy, geochemistry, and structure. References: Orlov and Epifanova, 1988; Palymsky and Palymskaya, 1990; 

Voroshin and others, written commun., 1990; Banin, written commun., 1993; Goncharov, 1995.

Overview of Methodology of Combined Regional Metallogenic and Tectonic Analysis 91
92 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Table 2. List of lode mineral deposit models used for metallogenic analysis of the Russian Far East, Alaska, and the Canadian 

Cordillera. 

[Adapted from Nokleberg and others (1997a,b, 2000). Only some of these models were needed to describe the characteristic features of the 1,079 lode 

deposits]

Deposit group Deposit model 

Deposits related to marine felsic to mafic extrusive rocks Kuroko Zn-Pb-Cu massive sulfide (Ag, Au, Cd, Sn, Sb, Bi, barite)

Besshi Cu-Zn massive sulfide (Cu, Zn, Ag)

Cyprus Cu-Zn-Ag massive sulfide (Au, Pb, Cd, Sn)

Volcanogenic Mn

Volcanogenic Fe 

Deposits related to subaerial extrusive rocks Au-Ag epithermal vein

Volcanic-hosted Hg (Plamennoe type)

Hot-spring Hg

Silica-carbonate Hg

Volcanic-hosted Sb (Au, Ag, As) vein

Rhyolite-hosted Sn

Sulfur-sulfide (S, FeS2 )

Stratiform deposits in fine-grained clastic and siliceous sedimentary rocksSedimentary-exhalative Zn-Pb-Ag

Bedded barite

Stratabound deposits in coarse-grained clastic sedimentary 

rocks and subaerial basalts

Sediment-hosted Cu (Kupferschiefer and Redbed)

Basaltic Cu (Dzhalkan type)

Clastic sediment-hosted Hg (Nikitovka type)

Sandstone-hosted U

Deposits in carbonate and chemical-sedimentary rocks Kipushi Cu-Pb-Zn

Southeast Missouri Pb-Zn

Korean Pb-Zn massive sulfide

Ironstone (Superior Fe)

Stratabound W (Austrian Alps-type)

Carbonate-hosted Hg (Khaidarkan type)

Stratiform Zr (Algama Type)

Sedimentary phosphorite

Deposits related to calc-alkaline and alkaline granitic intrusions 

- veins and replacement deposits

Polymetallic veins

Sb-Au veins (simple Sb deposits)

Sn quartz veins (Rudny Gory or replacement Sn)

Sn silicate-sulfide veins (Cornish type)

Sn polymetallic veins (Southern Bolivian type)

Co-arsenide polymetallic veins

Carbonatite-related Ta, Nb, REE stockwork and vein

Deposits related to calc-alkaline and alkaline granitic intrusions 

- skarns and greisens

Cu (±Fe, Au, Ag, Mo) skarn (contact metasomatic)

Zn-Pb (±Ag, Cu, W) skarn (contact metasomatic and associated Manto 

replacement deposits)

Au, Co, and As skarn

W skarn and greisen

Fe (±Au, Cu, W, Sn) skarn

Sn greisen and skarn

Sn-B (Fe) skarn (Ludwigtite type)

Boron skarn (datolite type)

Fluorite greisen

Deposits related to calc-alkaline and alkaline granitic intrusions 

- porphyry and granitic pluton-hosted deposits

Porphyry Cu-Mo (Au, Ag)

Porphyry Mo (±W, Sn, Bi)

Porphyry Sn

Granitoid-related Au

Felsic plutonic U-REE

W vein
Overview of Methodology of Combined Regional Metallogenic and Tectonic Analysis 93

Cu, W, Sn) skarn, Sn greisen and skarn, boron skarn (datolite 

type), porphyry Cu-Mo, porphyry Sn, granitoid-related Au, 

and W vein deposit models. The figure illustrates that these 

metallogenic belts are hosted in Cretaceous and Cenozoic 

volcanic-plutonic belts constituting major overlap assemblages 

that formed from Late Cretaceous through early Tertiary 

continental­-margin arcs.

When the above definitions and principles are applied, 

the areas defined for metallogenic belts encompass favorable geological environments and possess a specific mineral deposit type and associations. For the Russian Far East 

example (fig. 2), the various metallogenic belts delineate areas 

that contain and (or) are favorable (predictive) for igneous-arcrelated deposits that are hosted in major Late Cretaceous and 

early Tertiary continental-margin arc units. The synthesis and 

compilation of metallogenic belt maps provide an extremely 

powerful tool for a variety of purposes because the metallogenic belts constitute favorable areas for undiscovered mineral 

resources. This predictive methodology is extremely useful 

for land use planning, environmental studies, and exploration 

planning and for establishing guidelines for future research.

Theoretical Example of Methodology

The first parts of the methodology for metallogenic 

and tectonic analysis are illustrated in figure 3 (derived from 

Nokleberg and others, 1997a). Figure 3A is a schematic map 

that portrays a suite of metallogenic belts that are hosted in 

several geologic units, including cratons, terranes, and overlap 

Table 2. List of lode mineral deposit models used for metallogenic analysis of the Russian Far East, Alaska, and the Canadian 

Cordillera.—Continued

Deposit group Deposit model 

Deposits related to mafic and ultramafic rocks Zoned mafic-ultramafic Cr-PGE (±Cu, Ni, Au, Co, Ti, or Fe) (Alaskan PGE)

Zoned ultramafic, mafic, felsic, and alkalic PGE-Cr and apatite-Ti

Anorthosite apatite-Ti-Fe

Gabbroic Ni-Cu

Podiform Cr

Hornblende-peridotite Cu-Ni

Serpentine-hosted asbestos

Deposits related to regionally metamorphosed rocks Au quartz veins (includes concordant vein, and shear-zone Au)

Disseminated Au-sulfide (Maiskoe type)

Clastic sediment-hosted Sb-Au

Cu-Ag quartz vein (vein Cu)

Kennecott Cu

Table 3. Summary of major tectonic events and associated mineral deposit models derived from a metallogenic analysis of the 

Russian Far East, Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera.

[Adapted from Nokleberg and others (1997a,b, 2000), Nokleberg, West, and others (1998), and Scotese and others (2001)]

Time Areas Tectonic event(s) Major mineral deposit models

Late Proterozoic, Late Devonian, Early 

Carboniferous

Northeast Asia and North 

American craton margin

Rifting Sedimentary-exhalative Zn-Pb.

Late Triassic through mid-Cretaceous Offshore of North Asia and 

North American craton 

margins

Island arc and back arc Porphyry, epithermal vein, 

polymetallic vein, skarn.

Jurassic through mid-Cretaceous North Asian and North American continental marginsAccretion Low-sulfide Au quartz vein, 

granitoid-related Au.

Mid-Cretaceous through present North Asian and North American continental marginsContinental-margin arc and 

back arc

Porphyry, epithermal vein, 

polymetallic vein, skarn.

Late Jurassic through Early Cretaceous, 

Late Cretaceous through early Tertiary, and middle Tertiary

North Asian continental margin Transform continental-margin 

faulting and associated bimodal volcanic-plutonic belt

Zoned mafic-ultramafic 

PGE, Cr, and Ti; W skarn; 

porphyry Cu-Mo; Au-Ag 

epithermal vein.

Late Cretaceous through present North America continental 

margin

Transform continental-margin 

faulting and associated bimodal volcanic-plutonic belt

Displacement of previously 

formed metallogenic belts 

and host rocks.
94  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

assemblages, or along major faults between terranes. Figure 

3B, a series of stratigraphic columns for the units depicted in 

figure 3A, illustrates the stratigraphic and metallogenic history 

of the map area.

The steps in this theoretical example follow.

A regional geologic base map is constructed. Figure 3A, 

a map view of an orogenic belt (consisting of two cratons 

and several intervening terranes), portrays two major 

cratons (A, B), several fault-bounded terranes (1, 2, 3, 4) 

between the two cratons, one accretionary assemblage (a), 

and four postaccretion overlap assemblages (b, c, d, e).

A series of mineral deposit models appropriate for the 

geology is identified and defined, and a mineral deposit 

database is prepared. For this theoretical example, the 

major mineral deposit models are low-sulfide Au quartz 

vein, ironstone, epithermal Au vein, porphyry Cu, bedded 

barite, and kuroko massive sulfide.

Metallogenic belts are delineated. For simplicity in this 

example, each belt is assumed to contain only a single 

mineral deposit type. The two cratons (A, B) each contain 

distinctive, preaccretionary metallogenic belts with deposits that formed early in their geologic history—ironstone 

1.

2.

3.

in craton A and bedded barite in craton B. Island-arc terrane 4 contains a preaccretionary belt of kuroko massive 

sulfide deposits. Between terranes 3 and 4 is accretionary 

assemblage a, which consists of a collisional granitic pluton with a porphyry Cu belt that formed during accretion 

of terrane 3 against terrane 4. Between terranes 1 and 2 is 

an assemblage of rocks that contains a belt of Au quartz 

vein deposits that formed during accretion of terrane 1 

against terrane 2. Overlying all terranes and both cratons 

is postaccretion overlap assemblage e containing a metallogenic belt with epithermal Au vein deposits.

The genesis of bedrock geologic units, structures, and 

contained metallogenic belts and mineral deposits is 

interpreted by using modern tectonic concepts (fig. 3B). 

Examples are kuroko massive sulfide deposits forming in 

an island-arc environment, porphyry Cu and low-sulfide 

Au quartz vein deposits forming in a collisional environment, and epithermal Au vein deposits forming in a 

continental-margin igneous-arc environment.

Because each metallogenic belt is carefully defined to be 

the geologically favorable area for a group of coeval and 

genetically related mineral deposits, a predictive character 

is established within the belt for undiscovered deposits.

4.

5.

Terrane-bounding fault

Postaccretion thrust fault

Postaccretion strike-slip fault

1 Terrane 1

2 Terrane 2

4 Terrane 4

3 Terrane 3

A B Cratons A and B a Accretionary assemblage a

b Postaccretion overlap assemblage b

c Postaccretion overlap assemblage c 

d Postaccretion overlap assemblage d

e Postaccretion overlap assemblage e

v v

v

v

v v

v

v v v v v v v v v v

v v

v

v v

v

+ +

+

+

+

+ +

+

v

~

~

~

~

~

~

~

~

~

~

~

SULFIDE

KUROKO MASSIVE 

(preaccretionary)

BEDDED BARITE

(preaccretionary)

Timing of

older accretions

IRONSTONE

(preaccretionary)

Superterrane II Superterrane I

EPITHERMAL

Au

Craton

A

Craton

B

Craton

A

Craton

B

Au QUARTZ VEIN

(accretionary)

PORPHYRY Cu 

(formed during 

accretion of 

terranes)

Fold and 

thrust

belt

Fold and 

thrust

belt

IRONSTONE

BEDDED

BARITE

Cenozoic Mesozoic Paleozoic

Proterozoic

Archean

Timing of younger accretions

Au QUARTZ 

VEIN

EXPLANATION

PORPHYRY

Cu

A B

EPITHERMAL Au 

(postaccretionary)

K

J

^

P

C

D

S

O

_

KUROKO

MASSIVE

SULFIDE

1 4

c

a

2 3 b

e

d

1

d

2

3

4

a

e

b c

+ +

v v

Figure 3. Schematics illustrating the methodology for metallogenic analysis of cratons, terranes, accretionary assemblages, overlap 

assemblages, and contained metallogenic belts. A, Map view of orogenic belt. B, Stratigraphic columns for orogenic belt. Adapted from 

Nokleberg and others (1997a). 
Synthesis of a Combined Metallogenic 

and Tectonic Model

In the following discussion, the methodology for synthesis of a metallogenic and tectonic model, as practiced in 

recent international collaborative projects in the Circum-North 

Pacific (Nokleberg and others, 1995, 1997a,b,c; Nokleberg, 

Kuzmin, and others, 1998; Nokleberg, West, and others, 1998) 

and in Northeast Asia (Nokleberg and others, 1999), consists 

of the following steps.

A regional geologic base map, mineral deposit database, 

and metallogenic belt maps are compiled and synthesized. 

The tectonic environments for the cratons, craton margins, 

orogenic collages of terranes, overlap assemblages, and 

contained metallogenic belts are assigned from regional 

compilation and synthesis of stratigraphic, structural, 

metamorphic, isotopic, faunal, and provenance data 

(Nokleberg, Parfenov, and others, 1994; Nokleberg and 

others, 1997c; Greninger and others, 1999).

Correlations are made among terranes, fragments of overlap assemblages, and fragments of contained metallogenic 

belts.

Coeval terranes and their contained metallogenic belts are 

assigned a single metallogenic and tectonic origin, such as 

a single island-arc or subduction-zone terrane.

Igneous-arc and subduction-zone terranes that are interpreted as being tectonically linked together, and their 

contained metallogenic belts, are grouped into coeval, 

curvilinear arc-subduction-zone-complexes.

By use of geologic, faunal, and paleomagnetic data, the 

original positions of terranes and their metallogenic belts 

are interpreted.

The paths of tectonic migration of terranes and contained 

metallogenic belts are constructed.

The timings and nature of accretions of terranes and contained collision-related metallogenic belts are determined 

from geologic, age, and structural data.

The timings of postaccretionary overlap assemblages 

and contained metallogenic belts are determined from 

geologic and age data.

A series of time-stage diagrams is drawn that portrays the 

successive major metallogenic and tectonic events for the 

region.

The interpretation of the time-stage diagrams is written.

One time stage of the metallogenic and tectonic model is 

illustrated in figure 4, which shows the tectonic origin for continental-margin igneous-arc-related metallogenic belts in this 

region for the Late Cretaceous through early Tertiary (Nokleberg and others, 2000, 2001, 2003; Scotese and others, 2001). 

In addition to depicting the major continental-margin igneous1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

arc-related metallogenic belts, the model also illustrates, for 

this time stage, the configuration of cratons, craton margins, 

previously accreted terranes, actively migrating terranes, continental-margin arcs forming major overlap assemblages, and 

oceanic ridges.

For this time stage, the major metallogenic-tectonic 

events are (Nokleberg and others, 2000, 2001, 2003; Scotese 

and others, 2001) described below.

Continuation of a series of continental-margin arcs (East 

Sikhote-Alin, Okhotsk-Chukotka, Kluane, and Coast 

arcs), associated metallogenic belts (East Sikhote-Alin, 

Eastern Asia, Alaska, and Cordilleran), and companion 

subduction-zone assemblages around the Circum-North 

Pacific. 

Completion of opening of the Arctic Basin. 

Completion of accretion of the Wrangellia superterrane. 

A change to dextral transpression in the eastern part of the 

Circum-North Pacific between the Kula Ocean plate and 

the North American continental margin. 

Oblique subduction of the Kula-Farallon oceanic ridge 

under the margins of southern and southeastern Alaska. 

Northward migration of previously accreted terranes 

along the margin of the North American Cordillera. 

The major metallogenic belts forming during this time 

span are the East Sikhote-Alin belt hosted in the East SikhoteAlin arc, the Eastern Asia belt formed in the Okhotsk-Chukotka arc, the Alaska belt formed in the Kluane arc, and the 

Cordilleran belt formed in the Coast arc. The major mineral 

deposit types in these belts are porphyry Cu, porphyry Cu-Au, 

porphyry Cu-Mo, porphyry Mo, porphyry Sn, granitoidrelated Au, Au-Ag epithermal vein, polymetallic vein, Sb-Au 

vein, Sn greisen and skarn, Cu skarn, Zn-Pb skarn, Fe skarn, 

and Hg hot-spring types. Detailed descriptions of the 12 time 

stages for the metallogenic and tectonic model were provided 

by Nokleberg and others (2001, 2003) and Scotese and others 

(2001).

Benefits of Performing a Combined 

Regional Metallogenic and Tectonic 

Analysis

As described above, a high-quality metallogenic and 

tectonic analysis and synthesis of an associated metallogenic 

and tectonic model will provide the following benefits (fig. 1): 

(1) refinement of mineral deposit models (Eckstrand, 1984; 

Cox and Singer, 1986; Singer and Cox, 1988) and of the 

understanding of deposit genesis, (2) assessments of undiscovered mineral resources as part of quantitative mineral resource 

assessment studies (Cox, 1993; Singer, 1993, 1994; Ludington 

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

Overview of Methodology of Combined Regional Metallogenic and Tectonic Analysis 95
96  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

and others, 1996), (3) data to consider in land use and mineral 

exploration planning, (4) improvement of interpretations of 

origins of host rocks, mineral deposits, and metallogenic belts, 

and (5) guidelines for new research.

Following are three examples of these benefits. 

The in-depth understanding of the tectonic and metallogenic origins of potential host rocks for mineral deposits 

makes it possible to anticipate the types of mineral deposits that can occur in these rocks. It is crucial to have this 

capability because permissive tracts (that is, areas having 

1.

potential for undiscovered mineral deposit types) for a 

mineral resource assessment must be drawn for each mineral deposit type permitted by the geology and geologic 

processes that operated in the assessment area. 

Regional metallogenic and tectonic analyses, such 

as those performed for the Circum-North Pacific and 

Northeast Asia, make it possible to identify and locate 

the continuations of ore-hosting terranes and permissive 

tracts separated around the world by the myriad of platetectonic processes operating throughout the Earth’s long 

2.

Figure 4. Late Cretaceous and early Tertiary stage of the metallogenic and tectonic model illustrating the tectonic setting for igneousarc-related metallogenic belts hosted in Late Cretaceous through early Tertiary continental-margin igneous arcs in the Russian Far East, 

Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera. Adapted from Nokleberg and others (2000, 2001, 2003; Scotese and others, 2001).

EXPLANATION

CONTACTS AND FAULTS

Contacts

Thrust fault

Oblique thrust fault

Strike-slip fault

Subduction zone

Transform fault

SYMBOLS

Oceanic ridge

Back-arc spreading

Metallogenic belt ALASKA

Relative plate motion

Subduction-related

plutonic rocks

HOST ROCK TECTONIC ENVIRONMENTS

Craton margin

Cratonal

Igneous arc

Subduction zone

Oceanic plate

+ + Collage of accreted terranes

?

?

?

?

?

?

NORTH ASIA ARCTIC BASIN

CRATON 

MARGIN

CRATON

NORTH AMERICA

KLUANE ARC

OKHOTSKCHUKOTKA

ARC

COLLAGE

EAST SIKHOTEALIN ARC

PACIFIC

KULA

KLUANE ARC

FARALLON

ALASKA

EASTERN ASIA

EAST-SIKHOTE 

ALIN

CORDILLERAN

LATE CRETACEOUS THROUGH EARLY TERTIARY

COAST ARC
history. Suppose that a suite of metallogenic belts containing porphyry Cu deposits is hosted in various fragments 

of island-arc terranes that are now dispersed in a collage 

of terranes in the center of a continent. Tectonic analysis 

of the origin of the island-arc terranes, and possible correlations with each other, will result in grouping of these 

terranes and their contained metallogenic belts into an 

originally continuous island arc and a single, large metallogenic belt. This enlargement of the host-rock area and 

contained metallogenic belt will provide a larger dataset 

that should greatly improve the quality studies for metallogenic analysis and (or) for mineral resource assessment. 

An understanding of the metallogenic setting and history 

of host rocks and ore-forming processes often is important 

for estimating numbers of undiscovered mineral deposits 

in a permissive tract for a mineral resource assessment. 

For example, the number of volcanogenic massive sulfide 

deposits estimated in a permissive tract containing poorly 

exposed and poorly described mafic to felsic volcanic rocks 

may vary, depending on whether the tract is located in a 

volcanic fore-arc, axial-arc, or back-arc tectonic setting. 

Conversely, deposits of this type might not be estimated for 

a tract of similar rocks in an extensional cratonic setting.

Summary

This paper presents an overview of the methodology of 

combined regional metallogenic and tectonic analysis. The 

paper also provides a theoretical example of this type of analysis 

and describes an example of this type of analysis for a metallogenic and tectonic model for the origin of Late Cretaceous and 

early Tertiary igneous-arc-related deposits in the Circum-North 

Pacific (Russian Far East, Alaska, and Canadian Cordillera). 

This paper also describes how a high-quality metallogenic and 

tectonic analysis and synthesis of an associated metallogenic 

and tectonic model will provide the following benefits: (1) 

refinement of mineral deposit models and of the understanding 

of deposit genesis, (2) improvement of assessments of undiscovered mineral resources as part of quantitative mineral resource 

assessment studies, (3) data to consider in land use and mineral 

exploration planning, (4) improvement of interpretations of 

origins of host rocks, mineral deposits, and metallogenic belts, 

and (5) guidelines for new research.

Acknowledgments

In the last three decades, many persons have assisted the 

authors in developing and using the concepts of combined 

regional metallogenic and tectonic analysis and in developing 

methods for synthesizing a metallogenic and tectonic model. 

These persons include D.P. Cox, Kazuya Fujita, D.L. Jones, 

E.M. MacKevett, Jr., I.O. Norton, D.H. Richter, D.W. Scholl, 

3.

C.R. Scotese, D.A. Singer, and D.B. Stone. The constructive 

reviews by Klaus J. Schulz and Joseph A. Briskey (both of the 

U.S. Geological Survey) are appreciated.

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Overview of Methodology of Combined Regional Metallogenic and Tectonic Analysis 99
1

Mineral Resources Division, Geological Survey of Canada, 601 Booth 

Street, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, K1A 0E8.

Data Needs and Availability

Digital Inventory of Bedrock and Mineral Deposit Geology

By Lesley Chorlton,1 Robert Laramée,1 David Sinclair,1 and Elizabeth Hillary1

and Carrière, 1994) and the digital data on CD-ROM (Geological Survey of Canada, 1995) were released to the public at 

the end of the project.

A 2-year industry-sponsored World Map Project to add other 

global mineral deposit databases and enhance the geology subsequently was organized by R.V. Kirkham. This project resulted in 

the production of databases and distribution maps for porphyry 

and epithermal deposits (Kirkham and Dunne, 2000) and nickel 

deposits (Eckstrand and Good, 2000) and a database for volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) and sedimentary-exhalative deposits 

(Jenkins and Lydon, 2002). The geological dataset was revised to 

incorporate information such as better age ranges and magmatic 

composition to complement magma-related deposit databases. 

Enhancements to the data and revisions to many areas from new 

sources still are incomplete but are sufficient to provide thematic 

backdrops for the release of hardcopy maps showing the distribution of nickel deposits (Eckstrand and Good, 2000) and porphyryrelated deposits (Kirkham and Dunne, 2000).

Designers of the WMGDP have responded to the need to 

make the various mineral deposit databases uniform in structure 

and content, while accommodating new categories of information in the structure. Feedback from compilers, colleagues, and 

industry sponsors is being used to enhance a preliminary deposit 

database schema that was adapted from one of the preexisting 

databases and that already accommodated many of the descriptive parameters for mineral deposits (Eckstrand, 1984; Cox and 

Singer, 1986; Eckstrand and others, 1995). The consequent 

alterations to the mineral deposit schema, data content, and 

terminology should ensure that the information most critical for 

describing a wide variety of deposit types in a global context 

can be captured. The bedrock geology database is undergoing continued update and will in future include a new database 

component describing geotectonic provinces and their timing. 

Project participants and their roles are listed in table 1.

General Approach

WMGDP is a compilation project that includes data from 

a wide range of sources—maps of many origins, scientific 

Goals and Background

The goal of the World Minerals Geoscience Database 

Project (WMGDP), Geological Survey of Canada (GSC), is to 

provide high-quality datasets of global scope to describe (1) 

mineral deposits and (2) bedrock geology. These datasets are 

meant to facilitate resource assessment, environmental modeling, land use planning, and paleotectonic visualization to better 

understand our land masses and mineral wealth. The compilation of the initial framework will be accomplished in two 2-year 

cycles (1998–2000 and 2000–2002) under industry sponsorship. 

It is understood that compilations of this scope never will be 

truly complete or up to date. The aim by the end of the project is 

to provide datasets substantial enough in content to be a stimulating source of global information, which may in turn stimulate 

improvement of the database over the long term.

The WMGDP originated as the indirect result of compilations of global copper deposits that R.V. Kirkham and his 

associates began two decades ago. The idea of plotting deposit 

distributions on a world map of generalized bedrock age was 

inspired by the “World Atlas of Geology and Mineral Deposits” (Derry, 1980). Continent-scale diagrams from this volume 

were fitted to a wall map that underlay the plotted distribution 

of sediment-hosted copper deposits used for poster displays 

during the middle 1980s. To reap the advantages of reusing a 

geology backdrop with other data, the geology was recompiled 

in 1993 by generalizing it from UNESCO (United Nations 

Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) and other 

official maps so that it could be georeferenced for use as a 

geographic information system (GIS) digital information product. Attributes of general rock type as well as age were added 

to the dataset to test the feasibility of creating alternative 

thematic maps from different combinations of these elements. 

Paper maps showing the global distribution of sediment-hosted 

copper deposits (Kirkham, Carrière, and others, 1994), seafloor hydrothermal deposits (Hannington and others, 1994), 

and bedrock age and rock class domains (Kirkham, Chorlton, 
102 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

literature, reports, other national and provincial databases, and 

preexisting GSC databases. Terminology, levels of detail, and 

classification vary among sources. Gaps in the information 

available must be accommodated in the datasets and influence 

the design of the databases. For example, sources may record 

that host rocks are of a given geologic age but not indicate the 

type of host rock. Obtaining accurate and consistent locations 

from these varied sources also is a problem that may take a 

long time to overcome.

Because of the compiled nature of the databases, a 

referencing system has been added to all databases; this 

system can house all the information necessary to provide full 

bibliographic citations as output in any reference style. References can be extracted for use on the surrounds of maps and in 

reports or scientific papers using the information as illustration 

or evidence. Any number of references can be linked to each 

deposit or geology record, and provisions are included for 

identifying which general categories of data came from each 

source. Data source has been filled in fairly thoroughly for 

the geology database because the compiler had an immediate 

need to filter references according to the types of information 

required for individual thematic maps to provide a textual 

reference list to insert into cartographic surrounds. Auxiliary 

goals in developing the geology and current versions of the 

mineral deposit databases include streamlining the production 

of alternative integrated maps, diagrams, and reports directly 

from the databases and automating typing, symbolization, and 

legend tasks as much as possible.

The geological content of the WMGDP databases 

includes primarily parameters that are most significant for 

geology and mineral deposit settings on a global scale. The 

level of detail may therefore be considered low or superficial 

to many geologists. However, to accommodate geological 

complexity adequately, the databases must be able to represent 

the one-to-many and many-to-many relations among data elements that are endemic to geological information. Relational 

databases accommodate these kinds of relations, and relational database software is widely available to the public and 

to sponsors. Therefore, both the mineral deposit and geology 

databases are implemented in relational database style.

On the other hand, the needs of cartographers and 

geological end users having low-end GIS software must be 

accommodated by the system. These users generally prefer to 

work with data in spreadsheets and spreadsheet-style GIS files. 

Partial datasets in flat file formats, customized to emphasize 

different portions of the databases (themes) depending on the 

end use at hand, therefore, are the main outputs of these databases. This system will ensure that only portions of data that 

have been reasonably well populated are published and that, if 

a working group ensures that the thematic data are adequately 

populated for a certain theme, it is possible to name the group 

members as the compilers or authors of the thematic product. 

The export datasets are prepared by using programs that rely 

on the structural integrity of the database and the consistency 

of the data content.

Experience in generating export products has shown that 

it is useful to have rock-type data described by using a hierarchy of different levels of generality. Broad classifiers, alone 

or in combination with others, can be used to filter or group 

the data for particular end uses, such as explanations for plots, 

charts, and spreadsheets. Both the mineral deposit and geology 

databases allow the description of rock types in three levels. 

The most general category indicates whether a rock component is mainly sedimentary, volcanic, intrusive, metamorphic, 

Table 1. Makeup of the World Minerals Geoscience Database Project team.

[Asterisks mark participants in the previous World Map Project. GSC, Geological Survey Canada; ON, Ontario; BC, British Columbia; ESS, Earth Sciences 

Sector of Natural Resources Canada; GIS, geographic information system; PGE, platinum-group elements]

Name Location Roles

W. Dave Sinclair GSC Ottawa, ON Project coordinator, publicity, communication, and administration.

Lesley Chorlton* GSC Ottawa, ON GIS data, geology compilation, mineral deposit database design and data management, technical 

and compiler support coordinator.

Robert Laramée GSC Ottawa, ON Database developer, mineral deposit database design, utilities programmer, internal and external 

technical support.

Don F. Sangster Ottawa, ON Compiler: Sedimentary-exhalative and Mississippi-Valley-type deposits.

O. Roger Eckstrand* Ottawa, ON Compiler: Nickel-PGE-chromite deposits.

Dave Good* Dundas, ON Compiler: Nickel-PGE-chromite deposits.

Quentin Gall Ottawa, ON Compiler: Nickel-PGE-chromite deposits (tectonic setting; ages; PGE).

Benoît Dubé GSC Quebec Compiler: Gold deposits.

Patrice Gosselin GSC Quebec Compiler: Gold deposits.

Rod V. Kirkham* Delta, BC Compiler: Porphyry-related and sediment-hosted copper deposits.

Kathryn Dunne* Williams Lake, BC Compiler: Porphyry-related deposits.

Antonio Rafer Vancouver, BC Compiler: Sediment-hosted copper deposits.

Peter Born Ottawa, ON Compiler: Sediment-hosted copper deposits (tectonic setting; ages).

Sunil Gandhi Ottawa, ON Compiler: Fe(-Cu-Au-U) deposits (Olympic Dam-Kiruna type).

Elizabeth Hillary GSC Ottawa, ON Library, database, and graphics support.

David Power-Fardy GSC Ottawa, ON Library, database, and graphics support.

Mario Méthot* ESS Ottawa, ON Cartography.
or tectonic. This description can be modified by more specific, 

but still general, classifiers such as broad suite names and predominant magma series for intrusive rocks and, for volcanic 

rocks, by the familiar compositional terms, magma series, 

and depositional setting. Any number of more specific details 

such as actual lithologies, internal structures, external forms, 

depositional settings (for sedimentary rocks), and protoliths 

(for metamorphic and tectonic rocks) are entered into tables 

found at deeper levels in the database. This structure allows 

compilers to add as much detail as they want to qualify the 

general terms.

A different approach is being taken for geologic ages. 

Timing is critical to the understanding of the links between 

tectonic activity and metallogenesis. Therefore, ages are 

being captured in the most specific terms available from data 

sources. They are rolled up into user-specified age ranges for 

the generalization of export data products by using a numerically calibrated lookup table. Although time calibrations constantly are being revised, one internally consistent and fairly 

complete source was selected for most numerical start ages 

and end ages (Harland and others, 1990). These calibrations 

were supplemented from Plumb (1991) for the new Precambrian time scale and Okulitch (1995) for miscellaneous North 

American subdivisions.

The mineral deposit and geology databases contain 

explicit, unhidden tables describing their internal content. 

These tables include a catalog of component tables, fields, 

links among tables, domain values (pick lists), and captions. 

These tables are being used for automating backups and the 

transfer of data from one format into another. They eventually 

will be used with programs to fill out some parts of one of 

the upcoming international standard metadata formats if the 

datasets are to be made accessible over the World Wide Web. 

They also may be used to transfer the data into an entirely new 

structure and format, such as the North American Geologic 

Data Model (B.R. Johnson, Boyan Brodaric, and Gary Raines, 

unpub. data, 1997).

Mineral Deposit Databases

Mineral deposits being compiled into WMGDP databases 

include porphyry and related epithermal, nickel-PGE (platinum-group elements)-chromite, gold, sedimentary-exhalative, 

Mississippi-Valley-type, sediment-hosted copper, and ironoxide-copper-gold (Olympic Dam-Kiruna) deposits (table 1). 

Compilers are based in diverse locations and have a range of 

desktop computer facilities, a situation that also characterizes our industry clients, with their many international branch 

offices and project sites. Microsoft Access (version 7.0) was 

chosen as a platform because it was available to compilers and 

industry sponsors worldwide. The graphical utilities for entering data and navigating the database have been developed in 

Delphi and operate on the database through Windows connectivity mechanisms. The utilities can be used for databases that 

may be either upgraded to later versions of Microsoft Access 

or transferred onto other database management platforms.

The design of these deposit databases has evolved in 

stages. At the beginning of the WMGDP, the design of one 

of the World Map Project databases was adopted because it 

accommodated most of the information initially considered 

essential from a global perspective and was applicable to most 

deposit types. Preexisting databases for porphyry, nickel, gold 

(Jenkins and others, 1997), VMS, and sedimentary-exhalative 

deposits were translated into the schema to provide seed databases for additional compilation. As compilers began their literature research and data entry during cycle one of the project, 

they realized that some significant categories of information 

could not be accommodated in the existing schema, and so the 

schema was modified accordingly. The addition or removal 

of fields and tables, or changes to field definitions, is done by 

using upgrade programs, which automate the process without 

endangering the existing data. In some cases, some of the 

existing data must be remapped manually because the process 

requires geological judgment. Feedback will be used to make 

further adjustments, although the deposit data schema is now 

relatively stable. The standardization of equivalent terminology among databases is now being addressed.

A mineral deposit database is made up of tables that 

describe six types of entities—deposits, deposit groups (meaning a group of related deposits such as in a camp), mines, 

production numbers, resource numbers, and references. The 

overall view (fig. 1) shows how the first five entities relate to 

one another in many-to-many relations, except for mines and 

deposit groups, which are not directly connected. This lack of 

connection results because deposit groups may have several 

deposits, a mine can have more than one production record 

and exploit more than one deposit, and a resource record can 

be linked to more than one deposit or mine. The many-tomany relations are reduced to one-to-many through the use of 

Figure 1. Overview of the mineral deposit schema. The circles 

represent junction tables; the double arrowheads, the many ends 

of one-to-many relations.

Production

Deposit

groups Deposits Mines

Resources

Digital Inventory of Bedrock and Mineral Deposit Geology 103
104  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

junction tables. References (not shown in fig. 1) are linked to 

all other entities.

The portion of the schema that describes a mineral 

deposit (fig. 2) is very similar to that for a deposit group. Each 

entity is made of a master table, here “Deposit Geology,” 

which contains general data applicable to the entity for which 

there is only one value, such as the location and most general 

deposit classifier. Tables referred to as detail tables to the master table house the following information categories: names; 

deposit status; commodities; tectonic settings for mineralization, hosts, and so on; geologic ages for mineralization, hosts, 

and so on; radiometric (isotopic) ages for mineralization, 

hosts, and so on; related magmatic rocks; host rocks; country 

rocks; controlling structures; metallic signatures; alteration 

signatures; mineralization styles; and mineralogy. The detail 

tables are connected to the master table in one-to-many relations and contain data that can have multiple occurrences 

for each entity. There also are some subdetail tables, such as 

individual lithologies, that are themselves detail tables to detail 

tables (one-to-many-to-many relations). Figure 3 shows how 

these detail and subdetail tables would appear to a compiler. 

Compilers are free to use as many or as few detail tables as 

dictated by the nature of the data and deposit types that they 

are compiling. Ideal conceptual design had to be compromised 

in some ways because of information gaps in the database 

that provided seed data and (or) in the literature. For example, 

although it seems logical that the host-rock age should be a 

detail table to host rocks, a compiler must be able to enter 

host-rock ages even if there is no available information to 

justify describing host rocks.

Figure 2 also shows how references are used with deposits. Each record in the References junction table makes the 

Figure 2. Schema for mineral deposits, particularly their geology.

PRODUCTIONDEPOSIT

junction

RESOURCEDEPOSIT

junction

DEPOSIT-DEPOSIT 

GROUP junction

DEPOSIT-MINE

junction

DEPOSITS

R = references

Deposit

geology

Geological

age

Controlling

structure

Country/

province

Commodities

Alteration

signature

Deposit

types

Metallic

signature

Mineralization

style

Mineralogy

Names

Radiometric

age

Tectonic

setting

Deposit

status

R

metsig-minstl

junction

cstruc-minstl

junction

altsig-minstl

junction

Reference

details

References

junction

Country rocks

R

Protoliths

Host rocks

Protoliths

Internal

structures

External

forms

Lithologies

Lithologies

Lithologies

Related

intrusion

Tectonic

structure

R
bridge between a single deposit and a single reference. Each 

deposit can have several references, and each reference can 

apply to multiple deposits. The subdetail table “Reference 

Details” contains specific information such as page numbers 

and Yes/No fields to indicate what type of data came from 

which reference. Each record of the “Deposit Types” or the 

“Radiometric Age” detail tables can be linked to a single reference by storing the corresponding reference number value in 

a reference number field. The same is true for “Production,” 

“Resource,” and “Mine” records.

Many of the data fields in these tables are meant to 

contain values selected from fairly short and well-constrained 

value lists stored in lookup tables and made available during 

data entry by means of “combo” boxes. Although most of 

the lookup tables initially were filled with suggested values, 

the content of these lists has been under the control of the 

compilers so that they could chose the terms they needed to 

best describe the type of deposits they were dealing with. 

This method was used so that compilers would be comfortable keeping their lookup tables fairly short and the data in 

their deposit descriptions well constrained. During the early 

stages of project cycle two, the contents and terminology 

of the existing mineral deposit databases have been under 

review. Common descriptive lookup-table terms that meet 

the needs of these databases and their compilers, but which 

have varied between databases in spelling and grammatical form, gradually are being standardized, and appropriate 

terms are being substituted into the databases. Terminology 

for deposit status, tectonic settings, commodities, and host 

rocks and related magmatic rocks has been tackled to date. 

Host rocks are defined as those rocks containing, or in contact 

with, mineralization. The greatest adjustment is to the way of 

describing host rocks and related magmatic rocks. Generalized classifiers for host rocks and related magmatic rocks have 

been substituted for individual lithologies that were entered in 

some of the databases, and the lithologies have been moved 

down one level in the database where several may be linked to 

one general host-rock category. Protoliths, internal structures, 

and external forms also are available at the lithology level to 

describe host rocks.

The most appropriate generalized terms for country rock 

have yet to be determined. These should be more general than 

those used for host rocks. Country rocks are not necessarily 

adjacent to the deposit, and are unrelated to the mineralization 

event, but for some deposits, country rocks may have been 

a factor influencing deposit characteristics. Examples can 

Figure 3. Data entry screen for deposits.

Digital Inventory of Bedrock and Mineral Deposit Geology 105
106  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

include a tonalite-granodiorite-gneiss complex, granite-greenstone terrane, or carbonate platform.

The schemas for production and resource numbers are 

illustrated in figure 4. Included in the master table for each 

production or resource number are overall tonnage values; 

whether the number applies to ore, metal, or concentrate; 

time periods for production; date of estimate of resources; the 

compiler’s recommendation for using or not using the number 

for summary reports; and a reference number. The production 

master table includes a check box to indicate whether or not 

the number is cumulative. The resource master table includes a 

field for resource category and a check box to indicate whether 

the number is a combined production and resource number. 

It also contains check boxes to indicate whether the number 

refers to an anomaly within a larger resource or represents one 

of multiple zones for which separate resource estimates are 

reported. Anomalies and adjacent zones then are linked to the 

related primary number. Actual grades or metal weights are 

accommodated in detail tables, and any number of commodities can be reported. Cutoff grades also can be entered into 

resource detail tables. Each production and resource number 

should be linked to the most precise entity that it refers to and 

can be linked to more than one if this is indicated in the data 

source. The linkage is made through junction tables; if more 

than one entity is linked to a number, then a proportion of the 

number is allocated to each entity so that the total linked adds 

up to no more than 100 percent.

Production and resource numbers come from data sources 

that conform to a variety of industry standards. Different 

sources use different units of weight and grade, and the criteria 

for the classification of resource estimates vary widely. It was 

decided that the units and categories of the sources should 

be captured as is to assist verification. There is no solution 

for the variable resource category classifications; however, 

quantitative units will be recalculated to metric units by using 

a conversion table for summary spreadsheets and reports.

Figure 4. Schemas for production and resource numbers.

Production

figures PRODUCTION

Production

grades

Production

weights

Reference

details

REFNO R

PRODUCTIONDEPOSIT

R

R = references

PRODUCTIONDEPOSIT GROUP

PRODUCTIONMINE

R = references

RESADDED2

RESOURCES

Resource

figures

Resource

grades

Reference

details

REFNO

Resource

weights

Resource

cutoff grades

R

RESOURCEDEPOSIT

RESINRES

R

RESOURCEMINE

RESOURCEDEPOSIT GROUP
Although the mineral deposit schema covers abundant subject matter and consequently contains more than 100 tables, it will 

seem simple and logical to an economic geologist when viewed 

through the data entry interface (fig. 3). The deposit databases 

now are being made more accessible for end users through a 

personal-computer-based graphical query interface that will allow 

interactive filtering and the extraction of custom output that can 

be used in spreadsheets, displays, and reports. Use of this interface should make the benefits of standardization and generalized 

terminology evident to compilers and end users alike.

Geology Database

The geology database, which has evolved from Kirkham 

and others (1995), describes bedrock surface domains, major 

faults, and geotectonic provinces (fig. 5). ArcInfo is the software used to prepare the geospatial data and house the attribute database. Export datasets for desktop GIS are prepared by 

using Arc Macro Language scripts and then are imported into 

ArcView and MapInfo to create convenient end-user datasets.

ucts that can be used for diverse purposes within and outside 

the scope of the project.

The level of generalization of the geospatial features is 

being kept high for several reasons. It is primarily the distribution of elements of interest that is important in visualizing 

global patterns, not the geometry reflected exactly from more 

detailed map sources. Important elements, such as clusters of 

small intrusions, must be exaggerated so that they can show 

up on a global plot. In addition, the projection parameters of 

many paper source maps are missing and have had to be estimated. Many topographic bases poorly fit the standard World 

Data Bank II base used for the world geology or the nearly 

identical Digital Chart of the World; therefore, depicting too 

much detail would be misleading.

Bedrock Surface Domains

The bedrock surface database consists of a set of geospatial features (a polygon coverage in ArcInfo) that can be 

linked to an attribute database of tables describing the age 

range, rock-type components, names, tectonic settings, and 

significant commodities of input source units (fig. 6). Attributes housed by the source unit master table include primary 

and foreign keys, a textual input unit code or description of 

color or pattern on the original input map source(s), whether 

the unit is exposed onshore or offshore, and whether it is the 

default unit for quick plots. In complex areas where many 

very small, fragmented units are exposed, or in areas where 

multiple important units are exposed that may be too small to 

portray to scale on a global map, one polygon may be delinFigure 5. Overview of the geology schema.

Tectonic

provinces

References

Bedrock

domains Faults

Figure 6. Schema for bedrock surface domains. GIS, geographic 

information system.

Bedrock domains

(GIS: polygons)

BEDROCK-PROVINCE

junction

BEDROCK SURFACE

 DOMAIN

Bedrock

master

Geological

age range

Tectonic

setting

Important

commodities

Name(s)

Rock-type

components

Reference

details*

References

junction

Province name(s)**

References

The original simple database has been translated to a new, 

more comprehensive schema that better represents age ranges and 

rock types. Data for North America, Greenland, South America, 

Australia, and Africa have been substantially replaced from new 

sources, and updates to Asia and Europe are underway. Most effort 

has been directed toward bedrock domains. Data addition focused 

on the magmatic composition of intrusive and volcanic units to 

complement the concurrent compilations of nickel-PGE (platinumgroup elements)-chromite and porphyry-related deposits.

The development of the geology database is as much a 

prototypal exercise as the development of the databases for 

mineral deposits because it is imperative that intact data products be released to industry sponsors during the course of the 

project. The arrangement of fields and tables, and the terminology, has been adjusted during the course of the WMGDP 

and the World Map Project to better represent the source data. 

Terminology still requires feedback, and users may recommend substitutions for some terms. The main objective in 

proceeding is to build the best framework possible under the 

circumstances and to test it by preparing thematic export prodDigital Inventory of Bedrock and Mineral Deposit Geology 107
108  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

eated and linked to many units in the attribute database. The 

unit occupying the greatest cumulative area is tagged as the 

default unit. Alternative units for display may be retrieved on 

the basis of underlying attributes according to a specific end 

use. This generalization technique permits the derivation of 

alternative map views or export layers based on user-defined 

queries emphasizing different aspects of the attribute database. 

Different export layers will be superimposed appropriately 

when displayed with desktop GIS because they will be derived 

from the same geospatial framework.

The most significant and most thoroughly populated 

sets of descriptors for the unit are age and type. There can be 

many rock-type components for each unit but only one age 

range. The terms used for start age and end age are as close 

as possible to the terms used by the best age data source, and 

age-rollups are performed with the use of the numerically 

calibrated lookup table.

Rock-type components are described hierarchically, with 

broadly grouped classifiers at the top level and progressive levels of ungrouping deeper in the database. The most general classifiers are sedimentary, volcano-sedimentary, volcanic, intrusive, 

crystalline-metamorphic, and tectonic. Most of the bedrock 

domains in the dataset have been classified to this level. These 

top-level classifiers are stored in a rock-type table that links 

directly to the master table (fig. 7). Different attribute types 

and different terms normally are used to describe each class in 

more detail and therefore are stored in separate tables one level 

further down in the database (fig. 7). The status qualifiers that 

indicate whether components are the only components in the 

unit (SIMPLE or MIXED), and whether they are described in 

more than one type of detail table (DUAL or DUAL/MIXED), 

are stored with the general rock group. Whereas a sedimentary 

component should lead to only one record in the sedimentary 

detail table, a primarily metamorphic component showing significant sedimentary attributes could be described in sedimentary as well as metamorphic terms by placing one record in each 

table. A volcano-sedimentary component also may have details 

in either or both of the sedimentary and volcanic detail tables. If 

a component requires more than one entry in one of these detail 

tables, then it should be recorded as more than one component.

Figure 8. Schemas showing details for volcanic, sedimentary, 

Figure 7. Schema for rock types. intrusive, metamorphic, and tectonic rocks.

Bedrock master

ROCK-TYPE COMPONENT

Rock-type

components

Sedimentary

details

Metamorphic

details

Intrusive

details

Volcanic details

Radiometric ages

Tectonic details

References

Rock-type

components

Volcanic

classifiers

External

forms

Internal

structures

Lithologies

VOLCANIC COMPONENT

Second-level classifiers:

Maficity range

Magma series

Depositional setting

Yes/No fields:

Intrusive equivalents?

Metalliferous sediment?

SEDIMENTARY COMPONENT

Second-level classifiers:

Sedimentary assemblage

Series type

Yes/No fields:

Metalliferous sediment?

Evaporites?

Coal?

Oil or gas? Internal

structures

Depositional

regime(s)

Lithologies

Rock-type

components

Sedimentary

classifiers

INTRUSIVE COMPONENT Rock-type

components

External

forms

Internal

structures

Intrusive

classifiers

Lithologies

Second-level classifiers:

Intrusive suite

Magma series

Yes/No fields:

Volcanic equivalents?

Clusters of small bodies?

Significant aureole?

Significant inclusions?

Rock-type METAMORPHIC COMPONENT

components

Metamorphic

classifiers

Lithologies

Second-level classifiers:

Metamorphic class

Metamorphic grade

Age of reworking

Yes/No fields:

Metalliferous sediment?

Rock-type TECTONIC COMPONENT

components

Protoliths

Tectonic classifier

(one field)

Lithologies

Chemical regime(s)
Table 2. Explanation of the attributes of the geotectonic province dataset.

Field 

name Explanation

Name Geotectonic province name.

Basis The type of activity that the province is defined to represent, such as sedimentation, sedimentation and deformation, or magmatism.

Realm Realm of deposition, such as continental, oceanic, continental marginal, or ocean plate marginal.

Regime Deformation regime descriptor, such as extensional, stable, or transpressional.

Element Basic tectonic element class, such as arc, basin, platform, or orogenic belt.

Qualifier Refinement of element class, such as back-arc, fore-arc, or foreland.

Start age Start geologic age.

End age End geologic age.

The structures and contents of the five rock-type detail 

tables are illustrated in figure 8. The main second-level classifiers are chosen from commonly used terms, mainly of broadly 

compositional nature, and are single valued for each component. The second-level classifiers may be further qualified by 

multiple lithologies, depositional settings and chemical regime 

(sediments), internal structures, or external forms. Whether 

a volcanic component is mafic, intermediate, intermediatefelsic, felsic, or ultramafic commonly is depicted on geologic 

maps and constitutes the main second-level classifier. Information about predominant magma series and depositional 

setting can be entered into separate fields. Intrusive rocks may 

be compositionally complex and are best grouped in terms 

of broad suites, such as granite suite, granodiorite-tonalite 

suite, gabbro-diorite suite, or mafic-ultramafic suite. The term 

“monzonite suite,” or the alternative term “quartz monzonitemonzogab­bro suite” used to reflect a possibly broad compositional range, may be applied to a large number of Cordilleran 

intrusive complexes. There indeed will be overlap between 

terms, and geological judgment will be required at times to 

pick the most appropriate suite name.

Sedimentary rocks, which commonly are interbedded 

mixtures, have been the most difficult to classify broadly. 

The initial approach has been to identify significant sedimentary components named in generalized but familiar terms that 

are commonly found in general map legends. These terms 

are applied in the lateral sense to avoid nuances because 

it often is uncertain exactly how the terms were applied in 

the original data sources. The term “mudstone” includes 

shale; “conglomerate” includes breccia; “quartzite” includes 

quartz arenite; and “carbonate” includes limestone, dolomite, 

dolostone, and even marble if the sedimentary detail table is 

being used to describe a metamorphic rock. The terms for the 

most substantial components in the sedimentary assemblage 

then are strung together in an order set by the system, which 

keeps the list of possible values within reason. An alternative 

method is to record the significant presence of any of these 

components as Yes/No fields in a small index file, together 

with the Yes/No fields for presence of metalliferous sediment, evaporite, coal, and oil or gas. This method may make 

it easier for a compiler to enter the information, but it may be 

more awkward to query by using the generic query interface. 

In any case, even minimal sedimentary information is harder 

to acquire than shallow magmatic information; therefore, the 

sedimentary information will be relatively incomplete at the 

end of the project.

The tectonic setting parameters for each unit also are 

significant in a global context. These include the realm, overall 

deformation environment, and the tectonic element by name. 

These fields are duplicated in the new geotectonic provinces 

dataset and are explained under that heading in table 2.

In some cases, judgment must be exercised in deciding 

exactly how to enter the data from an input unit with more 

than one rock-type component. The production of default 

export datasets will be automated in batch by a program that 

applies a series of age and rock-type queries to the dataset, 

attributes a copy of the geospatial data to produce a flat file, 

and discards redundant contacts (fig. 9). For example, a unit of 

a certain general age may be described in the source explanation as being sedimentary but containing felsic volcanic 

components and dolerite dykes. If all components are included 

in one unit and it is tagged as a default, then the output rock 

type will be classified as sedimentary and volcanic rocks or 

sedimentary, volcanic, and intrusive rocks, depending on how 

many components are requested by the program. If the unit 

normally is viewed locally as overwhelmingly sedimentary, 

then it would be preferable to store the three components as 

separate units in the database, thus making the sedimentary 

unit the default, so that just sedimentary rocks would be 

assigned to the output rock type. This storage method would 

not preclude the use of the felsic volcanic component for a 

more specialized theme that emphasizes the maximum extent 

of felsic volcanism. There is now provision in the attribute 

data for approximate quantification at the master and rocktype levels that could be used to solve this problem, although 

very little of this information has been entered.

Faults

The fault data schema (fig. 10) is very similar to the 

bedrock schema. Major faults are notorious for focusing different types of displacement at during different periods of Earth 

history. Therefore, there may be more than one master record 

in the fault-attribute database for each fault feature (arc) in the 

geospatial data. Although each period of fault activity has one 

age range, the fault may have exhibited different displacement 

Digital Inventory of Bedrock and Mineral Deposit Geology 109
110 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Figure 9. Maps showing alternative desktop geographic information system datasets derived from the generalized geology bedrock 

dataset. Default rock type (top) and mafic and (or) ultramafic intrusive and volcanic rocks (bottom), both subdivided by era-level age 

ranges.
components during this period. For the purpose of this database, fault displacements are classified as overthrust or nappe, 

high-angle reverse, normal, strike slip, shear zone, or unknown. 

Displacement senses are chosen as the quadrant pointing toward 

the overriding sheet, the downdip subquadrant, or the rotational 

sense, depending on the class of fault. Name(s) and tectonic 

regimes are accommodated in exactly the same way as they 

are in the bedrock surface database. Despite the enhancement 

of the data framework for faults, it has not expanded greatly in 

content since Kirkham and others (1995) because it ranks below 

bedrock geology as a context for mineral deposits.

Figure 10. Schema for major faults. GIS, geographic information 

system.

Fault trace

(GIS:arcs)

FAULT-PROVINCE

junction

MAJOR FAULTS

Fault

master

Geological

age range

Tectonic

setting

Name(s)

Displacement

components

Reference

details*

References

junction

Fault system

name(s)

References

to bedrock surface domains and faults through junction tables 

(fig. 5), but this will not be attempted in the near future.

Discussion

Members of the World Minerals Geoscience Database 

Project aspire to have a moderately comprehensive data framework on world geology and mineral deposits available to the 

public after 2002 and to provide a source of maps and visualization layers to support and communicate global mineral 

exploration strategy. Questions posed to the mineral deposit 

databases about timing, host rocks or related intrusions, and 

tectonic setting may be posed independently to the geology 

database to discover areas permissive for the occurrence of 

undiscovered mineral deposits and can lead explorationists to 

examine more detailed data sources for further clarification. 

Perhaps the most intriguing potential academic use for these 

data will involve extracting data subsets for mineral deposits, 

bedrock, faults, and geotectonic provinces for user-defined 

intervals of time. Software that manipulates GIS data for plate 

tectonic reconstruction is now available.

The subject matter of these data overlaps that of the 

larger scale metallogenic maps prepared for the Commission 

for the Geological Map of the World (CGMW), also being 

prepared now in GIS format (Veselinovic-Williams and others, 

1999). In some ways, these data also may complement the 

CGMW datasets by providing generalized world overviews 

for visualization, and by incorporating subjective interpretation to a greater degree. Subjective interpretation that is not 

desirable for an official international map series (for example, 

Veselinovic-Williams and others, 1999) may be stimulating for 

visualization, provided that it is kept up to date.

The mineral deposit databases overlap the MRDS (Mineral Resources Data System) and MAS/MILS (Minerals Availability System/Minerals Industry Location System) databases 

of the U.S. Geological Survey (McFaul and others, 2000; U.S. 

Geological Survey, 2005), both in geological subject matter 

and global scope, but lack some of the administrative division 

information and provision for free-form comments available 

in MRDS and MAS/MILS. The datasets will be complementary, will be useful for cross-verification, and may be used to 

supplement one another for resource assessment applications, 

especially if some of the overlapping, generalized terminology 

were to be standardized between datasets.

The flexibility of the generalized geology dataset as a 

source of custom display output, as well as its high level of 

generalization, may make it useful in the communication of 

global resource assessment results. The dataset lacks the spatial 

resolution required for a final quantified global resource assessment but could provide test data while methods of automation 

are being refined. If it is used to supplement spatial information in areas for which greater detail is unavailable, then these 

areas must be cut out and reprojected because global projections 

misrepresent area values too grossly for any area-based analyGeotectonic Provinces

The geotectonic provinces dataset is in its early stages, 

and its schema still is undergoing refinement. It will contain 

information about basins, platforms, arcs, trenches, orogenic 

belts, and sutures. Data from the U.S. Geological Survey 

World Energy Project (Persits and others, 1997; Wandrey and 

Law, 1997; Steinshouer, and others, 1999) are being modified for the initial geospatial framework of world provinces. 

The emphasis in these source datasets is on petroleum basins. 

Therefore, the boundaries of the other province types will be 

redefined, and new province boundaries will be added.

The attributes that are being compiled for these provinces 

are name, basis of definition, realm, deformation regime, general element classifier, qualifier, start age, and end age (table 

2). Many provinces have undergone different types of tectonic 

activity over different periods of time, and some include the 

remnants of earlier, completely unrelated tectonic provinces. 

These complexities will be accommodated in the schema 

in the same way that they are accommodated for faults and 

bedrock domains. The tectonic provinces dataset can be linked 

Digital Inventory of Bedrock and Mineral Deposit Geology 111
112 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

sis. On the other hand, the geotectonic province component of 

the database may be a useful starting point for the definition 

of metallogenic tracts (see also Nokleberg and others, 1997) in 

regions that have not yet been subjected to modern metallogenic 

study (Nokleberg and others, this volume).

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to Dr. Wayne Goodfellow for the constructive review, which resulted in improvement to this manuscript. We also thank the Geochronology Subsection, Continental Geoscience Division, Geological Survey of Canada, for 

advice regarding the handling of age ranges. We are grateful 

especially to our mineral deposit database compilers for their 

useful feedback and considerable patience. This paper is Geological Survey of Canada Contribution Number 2001004.

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models: U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1693, 379 p. (Also 

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Survey of Canada, Geology of Canada, no. 8, 640 p. (Also 

designated as v. P–1 of The geology of North America, a 

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map of the world and linked databases: Geological Survey 

of Canada Open File 2915d, one CD-ROM.

Hannington, M.D., Petersen, Sven, Jonasson, I.R., and Franklin, J.M., comps., 1994, Hydrothermal activity and associated mineral deposits of the seafloor: Geological Survey of 

Canada Open File 2915c, 1 map, scale 1:35,000,000.

Harland, W.B., Armstrong, R.L., Cox, A.V., Craig, L.E., 

Smith, A.G., and Smith, D.G., 1990, A geologic time scale, 

1989: New York, Cambridge University Press, 263 p.

Jenkins, C.L., and Lydon, J.W., 2002, A mineral deposit data 

base structure and a data base of VMS and sedex deposits: 

Geological Survey of Canada Open File 4165, one CDROM.

Jenkins, C.L., Vincent, Raynald, Robert, François, Poulsen, 

K.H., Garson, D.F., and Blondé, J.A., comps., 1997, Indexlevel database for lode gold deposits of the world: Geological Survey of Canada Open File 3490, 18 p., 1 diskette.

Kirkham, R.V., Carrière, J.J., Laramée, R.M., and Garson, 

D.F., comps., 1994, Global distribution of sediment-hosted 

stratiform copper deposits and occurrences: Geological Survey of Canada Open File 2915b, 1 map, scale 1:35,000,000.

Kirkham, R.V., Chorlton, L.B., and Carrière, J.J., comps., 

1994, Generalized geology of the world; Rock type, age/era 

remains: Geological Survey of Canada Open File 2915a, 

1 map, scale 1:35,000,000.

Kirkham, R.V., Chorlton, L.B., and Carrière J.J., comps., 

1995, Generalized geology of the world, in Geological 

Survey of Canada, Generalized geological map of the world 

and linked databases: Geological Survey of Canada Open 

File 2915d, CD-ROM.

Kirkham, R.V., and Dunne, K.P.E., comps., 2000, World 

distribution of porphyry, porphyry-associated skarn, and 

bulk-tonnage epithermal deposits and occurrences: Geological Survey of Canada Open File 3792a (26 p., 1 diskette) 

and 3792b (map, scale 1:35,000,000). (An updated (2003) 

version of this database is available online at 

http://gdr.nrcan.gc.ca/minres/metadata_e.php?id=6.)

McFaul, E.J., Mason, G.T., Jr., Ferguson, W.B., and Lipin, 

B.R., 2000, U.S. Geological Survey mineral databases—

MRDS and MAS/MILS: U.S. Geological Survey Digital 

Data Series DDS–52, two CD-ROMs.

Nokleberg, W.J., Bundtzen, T.K., Dawson, K.M., Eremin, 

R.A., Goryachev, N.A., Koch, R.D., Ratkin, V.V., Rozenblum, I.S., Shpikerman, V.I., Frolov, Y.F., Gorodinsky, 

M.E., Melnikov, V.D., Diggles, M.F., Ognyanov, N.V., 

Petrachenko, E.D., Petrachenko, R.I., Pozdeev, A.I., Ross, 

K.V., Wood, D.H., Grybeck, Donald, Khanchuk, A.I., 

Kovbas, L.I., Nekrasov, I.Y., and Sidorov, A.A., 1997, 

Significant metalliferous and selected non-metalliferous 

lode deposits and placer districts for the Russian Far East, 

Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 96–513–B, one CD-ROM.

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Survey of Canada Open File 3040, 1 sheet.
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Maps showing geology, oil and gas fields and geologic 

provinces of the former Soviet Union: U.S. Geological 

Survey Open-File Report 97–470–E, one CD-ROM. (Also 

available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1997/ofr-97-470/

OF97-470E/.)

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v. 14, no. 2, p. 139–140.

Steinshouer, D.W., Qiang, Jin, McCabe, P.J., and Ryder, R.T., 

comps., 1999, Maps showing geology, oil and gas fields, 

and geologic provinces of the Asia Pacific region: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 97–470–F, one CD-ROM. 

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U.S. Geological Survey, 2005, Mineral Resources Data System: Reston, Va., U.S. Geological Survey database available 

online at http://tin.er.usgs.gov/mrds/.

Veselinovic-Williams, Milica, Hammerbeck, E.C.I., and 

Wolmarans, L.G., comps., 1999, 1:5 000 000 international 

digital metallogenic map of Africa, sheets 5 & 6 (south of 

the Equator): Pretoria, South Africa Council for Geoscience 

and Commission for the Geological Map of the World, scale 

1:5,000,000, one CD-ROM, introductory leaflet. (A printed 

map was published in 2002 on 3 sheets.)

Wandrey, C.J., and Law, B.E., 1997, Maps showing geology, 

oil and gas fields and geologic provinces of South Asia: 

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CD-ROM. (Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/

of/1997/ofr-97-470/OF97-470C/.)

Digital Inventory of Bedrock and Mineral Deposit Geology 113
1

Deceased; formerly President of the Subcommission for Metallogenic 

Maps of the Commission for the Geological Map of the World (CGMW).

2

Council for Geoscience, Private Bag x112, Pretoria 0001, South Africa.

Status of Metallogenic Mapping in the World Today—

With Special Reference to the Digital Metallogenic Map of Africa

By Erik Hammerbeck1 and Milica Veselinovic-Williams2

Metallogenic Maps—Culmination of 

Data Synthesis

Invariably, metallogenic maps are complex, portraying 

a multitude of data on current knowledge about geological processes that may have contributed to the formation of 

mineral deposits. As such, they represent a most valuable 

store of information about the mineral potential of countries, 

regions, or continents. In this point lie both their strength and 

their Achilles’ heel. One might expect that metallogenic maps 

would be regarded as being indispensable tools for mineral 

exploration, land use planning, teaching, and research in economic geology, but often that does not seem to be the case.

One reason is that metallogenic maps are generally 

far too complex to be useful for non-geoscientist planners 

and decisionmakers. Another is that comprehensive maps 

can be compiled only for regions where the geology is well 

understood and which are reasonably well explored, often 

at a time long after exploration activities have passed. So, if 

metallogenic maps indeed come too late, so to speak, to be 

indispensable tools for mineral exploration, or remain grossly 

undervalued in land use planning and even by the geological 

community at large, what is their worth?

The obvious answer lies in regional or global mineral 

resource assessments. Without the systematic collation and 

synthesis of mineral-resource data embodied in metallogenic 

maps, it is not possible to arrive at a meaningful overview 

of the mineral potential of a country or region. As a result, a 

large number of metallogenic and related mineral maps have 

been published over the past three or four decades on national, 

regional, or continental scales. To provide a review of the 

worldwide availability of such maps is beyond the scope of 

this paper. Whereas large- and medium-scale metallogenic 

maps (up to 1:250,000) continue to serve a useful purpose to 

synthesize and document details of selected mineralized terranes, maps at scales of 1:1,000,000 and smaller lend themselves best to metallogenic analysis.

Mineral exploration is an iterative process and, as making 

new discoveries becomes ever more difficult, success depends 

very much on acquiring and applying new knowledge in 

innovative ways. For this reason, it must be stressed that it is 

in the interest of countries, regions, or continents with emergHistorical Background

Although the study of mineral deposits has preoccupied geologists since the very beginnings of the earth 

sciences, the concept of metallogeny is less than 100 years 

old; the term was coined by Louis Auguste de Launay in 

1913 (quoted by Lindgren, 1933). The debate on what the 

concept of metallogeny means by definition and in terms of 

contemporary geological theory, how it should be depicted 

on maps, and how it can be used as an exploration tool has 

largely subsided (Lindgren, 1933; Turneaure, 1955; Petrascheck, 1965; Guild, 1971, 1972, 1974; Routhier, 1983; 

Guilbert and Park, 1986). Today there is some convergence 

toward two dominant schools of thought regarding metallogenic maps, the French and northern American. There 

are, however, equally as many exceptions or adaptations to 

these two approaches, as for example in the recent maps 

produced in the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada. 

A third type of metallogenic map, exemplified by Russian 

maps of the Soviet era, has found less acceptance in view of 

the complexity of their legends, although some examples of 

this type have been published only very recently for Angola 

and Mozambique. Consensus on the matter of how best 

to present metallogenic information is unlikely ever to be 

reached, although it would help the cause of global resource 

assessment tremendously.

We advocate the French legend for its simplicity (the 

symbols are easy to relate to), its descriptiveness (being 

largely factual rather than interpretive), and the cartographic 

clarity of representation. One of the best examples is the 

“International Mineral Deposits Map of Africa,” of which 

only sheet 1 was published (Emberger, 1991). Emberger’s 

map legend, which was used as the basis for the “International Digital Metallogenic Map of Africa” (VeselinovicWilliams and others, 1999), can be converted into geographic 

information system (GIS) format with only minimal adaptations, and it was found to lend itself perfectly to metallogenic 

modeling.
116  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

ing mining industries to produce metallogenic maps that are 

topical and timely to attract mining investment, which remains 

one of the pillars of economic development.

On a global scale, the Commission for the Geological Map 

of the World (CGMW), and more precisely its Subcommission 

for Metallogenic Maps, endeavors to promote this cause through 

international collaborative projects. Presently, projects carried 

out under its auspices include the international metallogenic 

maps of Africa and of South America, both at 1:5 million scale, 

and it is a goal to add a map of the Middle East to this series. 

In addition, a new thematic global map of exceptionally large 

mineral deposits is being compiled at a scale of 1:25 million, 

primarily by a joint Chinese-Russian research project. A large 

database on the deposits included on this map is being compiled 

at the Vernadtsky State Geological Museum in Moscow. The 

effort to understand exceptionally large mineral deposits may 

benefit from current Russian research on the role of deep crustal 

structures (Konstantinov and others, 1999).

Metallogeny in the Information Age

The electronic media have changed the nature of metallogenic maps during the last decade or so. Since the early 

1980s, many geological surveys have started to develop mineral deposit databases, and today GIS and digital mapmaking 

are commonplace. More important, however, is the ability to 

exchange data and to integrate the information, more or less at 

will, with other datasets. In addition, GIS technology brings 

the power to query and manipulate data and to produce any 

number of customized products for a multitude of research and 

consumer needs. Much of the power of present-day metallogeny, therefore, lies in access to digital data sources that enable 

users for the first time ever to create their own innovative 

derivative products.

Restrictions on access to data and information and 

copyright issues, however, often inhibit this process. Clear 

distinctions must be drawn here between legal copyright issues 

and self-imposed restrictions to protect partisan interests. 

According to Gueiros (2000), the availability of intellectually 

protected documents on the World Wide Web is causing a 

legal revolution, in that new rules must be developed on how 

to regulate intellectual property in cyberspace.

In an attempt to promote the free exchange of data and 

information, it may help to clearly define the issues at stake 

and to recognize that—

Copyright can apply only to intellectual property. In other 

words, copyright applies only to definitive information 

products that express specific interpretations or viewpoints at the time when that product was generated. At 

present, copyright is governed by the Berne Convention 

on authors’ rights (United Nations, World Intellectual 

Property Organization, 1979) and the copyright legislation 

of various countries.

•

Copyright is vested in the source of that information product; for example, the institution or author of the product or 

in the client in terms of a commercial agreement.

Data are neither a product in their own right, nor can data 

be regarded as intellectual property.

Data and information are tradeable commodities, but 

they are not free when classified as confidential and thus 

specifically protected and restricted.

The “International Digital Metallogenic Map of 

Africa” (Veselinovic-Williams and others, 1999) is a case in 

point. Comprehensive electronic data have been compiled 

from published nonproprietary hardcopy information, from 

data received directly or indirectly from every geological survey of Africa participating in this project, and from 

other data sources. While the CD-ROM containing these 

data is being sold at a nominal cost to defray expenses, it 

is copyright protected, meaning the data may not be resold. 

The users who have acquired the data, however, are permitted to utilize it to their best advantage, to merge it with 

other data sources, or to create any number of new information products. It is anticipated that, in the near future, 

a fully compatible global database can be compiled using 

the new standard established for metallogenic mapping and 

with the added ability to seamlessly integrate the African 

data with data for South America and, eventually, with data 

for the Middle East.

The Metallogenic Map of Africa as a 

Deposit Modeling Tool

The “International Digital Metallogenic Map of Africa” 

(Veselinovic-Williams and others, 1999), and particularly the 

Metallogenic Map of Africa (MMA) database that was created, is ideally suited to describe the essential attributes of all 

mineral deposits of Africa. This use not only greatly facilitates 

the description of definitive ore deposit types but also helps 

scientists to understand their genetic association and their 

comparison in space and time.

The MMA is based on an advanced GIS data model, 

comprising various data layers (coverages) carrying the pertinent data on which the parameters for descriptive and genetic 

deposit models can be defined, as summarized in tables 1 and 

2. It is a modern, relational database developed in Corel Paradox and is fully compatible with Oracle, ArcInfo, ArcView, 

and similar application software.

Although genetic deposit model type data are not carried 

in the database because of their subjective nature, such models 

can be easily derived from the available data by association, 

combination, and interpolation of the various data elements 

and parameters. Metallogenic analysis is facilitated by predefined parameters, as shown in table 3.

•

•

•
Table 1. The database model of the Metallogenic Map of Africa database.

[The Metallogenic Map of Africa (MMA) database was created during compilation of the “International Digital Metallogenic Map of Africa” (VeselinovicWilliams and others, 1999)]

Coverages Attribute tables Standard tables Cartographic tables

GMS Lithology, chronostratigraphy Numerous lookup tables to standardize 

and validate data entries.

Numerous tables defining the symbology, hatchings, 

colors, and text to be used for map outputs.

GME Geotectonic environment

GMO Orogeny

GSL Geological structures

MDP Mineral deposits

Table 2. The Metallogenic Map of Africa database structure, with some examples.

[The Metallogenic Map of Africa (MMA) database was created during compilation of the “International Digital Metallogenic Map of 

Africa” (Veselinovic-Williams and others, 1999)]

Geological data (with examples) Mineral deposit data

Coverage and specific item Lookup table Code Latitude/longitude

GMS

Polygon key 12S (Gweru) Greenstone belt Deposit number

Chronostratigraphy GMS MARC State or country

Lithology LIT BASLT Commodities present (1, 2, 3)

Lithology qualifier LILA GBELT Deposit size (according to size classification)

GME Deposit name

Polygon key 2E Deposit status (active, dormant, occurrence)

Environment GME OROG Deposit shape and orientation

GMO Host-rock lithology

Polygon key 3AO Host-rock lithostratigraphic name and age

Main orogeny GMO MGND Ore genesis

Main orogeny age GMO 2 to 1.8 Ga Ore mineralogy

2d orogeny SCO ZMBZ Resources and production

2d orogeny age SCO 1 to 0.5 Ga Comments

Table 3. Selected parameters in the Metallogenic Map of Africa database to 

facilitate deposit modeling and metallogenic analysis.

[The Metallogenic Map of Africa (MMA) database was created during compilation of the “International Digital Metallogenic Map of Africa” (Veselinovic-Williams and others, 1999)]

Geological data Physical and other data Genetic criteria

Chronostratigraphic classification Commodities present (1, 2, 3) Magmatic:

Host-rock lithology Shape (morphology) of deposit • Intrusive

Host-rock environment: Size classification • Extrusive

• Continental Status (active, dormant, occurrence) Hydrothermal

• Paralic Mineralogy of ore Sedimentary

• Marine Mineralization age Diagenetic

• Plutonic Pedogenic

• Orogenic* Metamorphic

*Orogenic name and age.

Status of Metallogenic Mapping in the World Today 117
118  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Precambrian African Metallogeny—

Unlimited Deposit Modeling Options

The African continent has had a complex geologic and 

orogenic history, too diverse for a detailed discussion in this 

paper. The interested reader is referred to the many benchmark 

books and papers, including those by Cahen and others (1984), 

Petters (1991), Milesi and others (1992), Windley (1995), and De 

Wit and Ashwal (1997). Here we attempt only to highlight some 

important metallogenic aspects, based on views generated from 

the MMA database, which presents countless modeling scenarios.

Archean

The Archean rocks in Africa (fig. 1) consist of various 

lithologic assemblages in greenstone belts and high-grade metamorphic terranes. Greenstone belts consist of thick volcanosedimentary sequences that have mostly experienced low-grade 

metamorphism but that have reached granulite facies locally 

(De Wit and Ashwal, 1997). The belts represent supracrustal 

cover to the granitic basement rocks, which originated in three 

Archean magmatic stages: (1) 3.5–3.2 Ga, tonalite/trondhjemite 

gneisses, (2) 3.2–2.7 Ga, porphyritic migmatite/gneiss, and (3) 

2.8–2.5 Ga, syn- to post-orogenic granites.

Of particular metallogenic interest are the Archean greenstone terranes of the Kaapvaal, Zimbabwe, Kivu-De­mocratic 

Republic of the Congo (DRC)-West Nile, Tanzania, NtemChaillu, Leo-Man, and Reguibat metallogenic provinces (fig. 

1), as described in various papers in De Wit and Ashwal (1997). 

Mineral deposits associated with greenstone belts include gold, 

antimony, iron, chromium, nickel-copper, and copper-zinc. Figure 2 shows the classic Zimbabwe craton, in which various ages 

of greenstone formation have been identified, each with its own 

metallogenic characteristics. The lowermost ultramafic units of 

some of these greenstone belts contain significant deposits of 

chromite, nickel-copper, and chrysotile asbestos (for example, 

Selukwe, Empress, and Shangani deposits).

Gold is widely distributed in all the Archean greenstone 

belts of the continent (Foster and Piper, 1993). Historically, 

the most productive and best developed gold deposits have 

been those in the Kaapvaal and Zimbabwe cratons. However, 

at present, the focus is on Tanzania, where numerous new gold 

deposits have recently been discovered (De Klerk, 2001). Further gold discoveries can be expected in other terranes ha­ving 

lesser known, but locally important, Archean gold deposits 

once these areas become more accessible to exploration. The 

Ituri belt of the DRC (de Kun, 1963), including Kilo-Moto, 

and the Gabon craton are examples of such potentially very 

important terranes. In general, gold is concentrated in strucFigure 1. Map showing Archean 

cratonic terranes (purple 

areas) of Africa: 1, Reguibat; 

2, Leo-Man; 3, West Nile; 

4, Kivu-Democratic Republic 

of the Congo (DRC); 5, NtemChaillu; 6, Tanzania; 7, Kasai; 

8, Zimbabwe; 9, Kaapvaal; 

10, Antongilian. Map was derived 

from the Metallogenic Map of 

Africa (MMA) database, which 

was created during compilation 

of the “International Digital 

Metallogenic Map of Africa” 

(Veselinovic-Williams and others, 

1999).

1

2

5 4

3

7

6

8

10

9
tu­r­ally controlled vein deposits that cut basic to intermediate 

igneous rocks in the marginal and stratigraphically upper parts 

of the greenstone belts.

Algoma-type iron formations, associated with the 

volcanic successions of many greenstone belts, are chemical 

sediments formed by subaqueous volcanogenic exhalations. 

Locally, the iron formations constitute economic deposits 

of iron; for example, Buchwa in Zimbabwe and Nimba in 

Liberia.

Cratonized lithospheric plates developed during the late 

Archean in South Africa. This development led to the widespread formation of sedimentary basins, platform sediments, 

and continental-margin troughs and foreland basins at a time 

when greenstone belts were still forming farther north in 

Africa and elsewhere (in the time span 3.0–2.6 Ga). Examples 

on the Kaapvaal craton include the Dominion Group (3.075 

Ga) and the Pongola (~2.9 Ga), Witwatersrand (~2.9–2.8 Ga), 

and Ventersdorp (2.62 Ga) Supergroups. Primary syndepositional placer-type gold-uranium mineralization was deposited 

in the intracratonic Witwatersrand basin, South Africa, and is 

unique in that it was coeval with a worldwide event of basic to 

ultrabasic submarine volcanism associated with Late Archean 

greenstone belts. Three postdepositional events are recognized 

during which the ores were reconstituted and enriched. These 

are dated at 2,550 Ma, 2,300 Ma, and 2,000 Ma (Robb and 

Robb, 1998).

Important mineral deposits associated with pegmatites 

occur in the granitic terranes of the Zimbabwe craton (for 

example, Bikita) and the Kaapvaal craton (for example, the 

Mopane and Mica fields). These include deposits of tin, tungsten, tantalum, niobium, lithium, mica, and beryllium.

Paleoproterozoic

During the Paleoproterozoic (2.5–1.6 Ga), many events 

affected metallogenesis; the following events are the most noteworthy in terms of their metallogenic significance (Olson, 2000):

Repeated platform sedimentation and volcanism, notably 

the Francevillian of Gabon, the Luizien of the DRC, and 

the Transvaal, Magondi, and Kheis of southern Africa.

Anorogenic magmatism, associated with formation of features such as the Great Dyke, the Bushveld Complex, and 

the Kunene Complex, all of which resulted from tensional 

conditions subsequent to the stabilization of the cratons 

or from a combination of tectonothermal events linked to 

accretionary processes.

The development of accretionary and collisional orogens 

of the Ubendian/Rusizian (central and southern Africa) 

and the Birimian of West Africa.

Evolutionary changes in the Earth’s atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere during this time had a major influence on 

processes leading to metal accumulation. Intracratonic basins that 

formed during this time host important stratabound iron, manganese, asbestos, and copper mineralization. Enriched Superiortype iron formations occur in South Africa (for example, Sishen 

and Thabazimbi), Angola (Cassinga), Mozambique (Honde), 

and Gabon (Belinga). The deposits of Moanda (Gabon) and the 

Kalahari (South Africa) constitute the world’s largest resources of 

manganese. One of the first appearances of stratabound sedimentary copper mineralization occurs at several stratigraphic 

levels within the thick sequence of early Proterozoic rocks of the 

•

•

•

Figure 2. Map showing the 

Zimbabwe craton (colored 

areas), the main elements 

of which include the Sebakwean Group (S) (3.6 Ga), the 

Bulawayan Supergroup (B) 

(2.8–2.7 Ga), various associated 

syntectonic and posttectonic 

gneisses and granites (G), and 

the Limpopo belt (L). Map was 

derived from the Metallogenic 

Map of Africa (MMA) database, which was created during compilation of the “International Digital Metallogenic Map 

of Africa” (VeselinovicWilliams and others, 1999).

A

Ag

Au

Be

Cr

Cu

F

Fe

Gr

Hg

Ky

Li

Mn

Mo

Nb

Ni

Pb

Zn

Sb

Sn

W

T

B

B

G

B

G

G

G

S

L

Status of Metallogenic Mapping in the World Today 119
120 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Piriwiri-Lomagundi basin, northwestern Zimbabwe (for example, 

Mangula, Shackleton, Alaska, and Shamrocke).

Of great metallogenic importance are the anorogenic 

basic to ultrabasic intrusions, including the Great Dyke (Zimbabwe), which formed at ~2.5 Ga, and the Bushveld Complex 

(South Africa), now tightly constrained at 2.05 Ga, as well as 

the Molopo (Botswana), Atchiza (Mozambique), and Kunene 

(Namibia-Angola) complexes. The Great Dyke and the Bushveld Complex, in particular, host very large economic deposits 

of chrome, platinum-group elements, iron, titanium, vanadium, 

and nickel-copper mineralization. The copper-rich Phalaborwa 

carbonatite (2.05 Ga) and the much younger Premier diamondiferous kimberlite pipe (1.15 Ga) are both manifestations of 

extensional tectonic regimes prevalent within the thick, stable 

Kaapvaal craton since the late Archean. The greater Kaapvaal 

craton (including its younger accreted additions) seems to 

have been exceptionally well suited for the subsequent development of diamondiferous kimberlites, and it has a significant 

region of diamond formation in its structural root.

The Birimian belt of West Africa formed at 2.2–2.0 Ga 

and represents a series of juvenile, accreted terranes (Milesi 

and others, 1992). These terranes consist of supracrustal belts 

very similar to Archean greenstone belts and contain basaltic 

pillow lava flows, andesitic to dacitic pyroclastic rocks and 

lava flows, volcanogenic turbidites, and manganiferous cherts, 

as well as flysch-type turbidites. All these rocks were metamorphosed to greenschist facies and intruded by peraluminous 

granitic plutons. A great variety of mineral deposits occurs 

in the Birimian greenstone belts, especially gold, manganese, 

iron, and small but economic lead, copper, antimony, silver, nickel, cobalt, tin, and tungsten deposits. The following 

genetic types of gold mineralization have been recognized: 

mesothermal load (Ashanti, Prestea, Marlu, all in Ghana), 

tourmalinized turbidite sandstone (Loulo, Mali), quartz veins 

with native gold (Poura, Bouroum, Guiro, all in Burkina Faso), 

shear-zone-hosted disseminated (Bogosu, Konogo, Ghana), 

intrusive disseminated (Ayenfuri, Ghana), porphyry coppergold (Diénémera, Burkina Faso), and paleoplacers (Tarkwa, 

Ghana).

Collisional mobile belts such as the Ubendian-Rusizian 

(1.8–2.0 Ga) and Toro of eastern Africa are generally poorly 

mineralized. An exception is the important stratiform syngenetic copper-cobalt deposit at Kilembe in the Toro Supergroup, Uganda. Hydrothermal deposits of lead (Mukwamba), 

copper (Lufusi), and gold (Lupa district) occur in Tanzania, 

related to late-orogenic Ubendian igneous activity.

Mesoproterozoic

The Mesoproterozoic (1.6 Ga–950 Ma) was marked by 

one of the most distinctive orogenic events in Africa, which 

is known as the Kibaran orogeny (1,400–950 Ma); figure 3

shows the regional distribution of rocks formed during this 

orogeny (the Kibaran metallogenic province or belt), including 

the Irumide, Nampula, and Namaqua-Natal belts. Pohl (1994) 

and Olson (2000) linked the metallogeny of the Kibaran to a 

series of events related to rifting, sedimentation, magmatism, 

metamorphism, and tectonic deformation. The crosscutting 

Figure 3. Map showing the 

Mesoproterozoic Kibaran 

metallogenic province (orange 

areas) of central and southern 

Africa. Numbered belts: 

1, Mayombe; 2, Burundian; 

3, Karagwe-Ankolean; 

4, Shaba; 5, Mporokoso; 

6, Zambia (including the 

Irumide belt); 7, Malawi; 

8, Nampula; 9, Madagascar; 

10, Sinclair; 11, NamaquaNatal. Map was derived from 

the Metallogenic Map of Africa 

(MMA) database, which was 

created during compilation 

of the “International Digital 

Metallogenic Map of Africa” 

(Veselinovic-Williams and 

others, 1999).

AC

Au

Be

Co

Cu

F

Fe

Gr

Mn

Nb

Ni

Pb

Zn

Sn

T

P

RE

Ti

U

V

Vm

W

1

2

3

4 5

6

7 8

9

10

11
nature of the Kibaran belt with the Ubendian-Rusizian belt and 

the fact that it is also flanked by Archean massifs to the east 

and west support the contention that the Kibaran belt developed intracratonically. Mineralization within the different parts 

of the Kibaran belt differs markedly. The intracratonic Kibaran 

belt of central Africa, for example, defines a major tin (-tungsten) province in the northern DRC, Burundi, and Rwanda. Tin 

and tungsten tend to occur in quartz veins associated with lateorogenic granitic intrusions. Beryllium, columbo-tantalite, and 

lithium ores occur in pegmatite zones close to, but separated 

from, the hydrothermal tin-tungsten mineralization.

The Kibaran-age Irumide belt defines a red-bed-type 

copper province in a rift-bounded succession of mainly clastic 

sedimentary rocks, extending discontinuously from Ghanzi in 

northwestern Botswana to Witvlei and Klein Aub in Namibia. 

Sedimentary-exhalative massive sulfide mineralization (copper, lead-zinc, silver) occurs in Namaqualand (Aggeneys, 

Broken Hill, Gamsberg). Volcanogenic exhalative base-metal 

deposits are found in a long north-south-trending belt adjacent 

to the western margin of the Kaapvaal craton. The nowdefunct Prieska copper-zinc deposit, like the other deposits in 

the belt, is stratabound in a basic metavolcanic unit composed 

mainly of amphibolites and amphibole gneisses.

Neoproterozoic and Early Paleozoic

The Pan-African tectonothermal event affected much of 

Africa during the Neoproterozoic and early Paleozoic in the 

period from at least 950 Ma to about 450 Ma (fig. 4). The PanAfrican belts developed through a complex sequence involving 

an initial rifting phase with related sedimentation and magmatism, followed by ocean opening, subduction and plate collision, 

and postcollisional magmatism. The Katanga belt (Zambia 

and DRC) forms a broad curved zone of deformed sedimentary rocks, known as the Lufilian arc, which host major copper 

(-cobalt) deposits. These deposits are confined to specific shale 

or conglomerate horizons, which may represent a rift-bounded 

succession. Apart from copper and cobalt, other significant 

deposits in the Copperbelt contain uranium-gold (Shinkolobwe, 

DRC) and lead-zinc-copper-cadmium (Kipushi, DRC).

The Damara Supergroup (Miller, 1983; Pirajno, 1998) in 

Namibia is dated at 900–600 Ma and is one of the best developed orogenic belts in Africa. It is composed of a northern arm 

(Kaokoland) and a southern arm (Gariep), both of which have 

undergone full Wilson cycles, and a northeast-trending intracratonic rift zone, all of which carry important mineralization 

(fig. 5). The Matchless amphibolite is closely associated with 

Figure 4. Map showing 

belts (areas tinted and striped 

in green) formed during the 

Neoproterozoic and early 

Paleozoic Pan-African orogeny: 

1, Anti-Atlas; 2, Mauritanide; 

3, Hoggar; 4, Tibesti; 5, Nubian 

Shield; 6, Benin-Nigerian; 

7, Oubanguide; 8, West Nile; 

9, West Congolian; 10, Katanga; 

11, Mozambique; 12, Damara; 

13, Gariep; 14, Saldania. 

Map was derived from the 

Metallogenic Map of Africa 

(MMA) database, which was 

created during compilation 

of the “International Digital 

Metallogenic Map of Africa” 

(Veselinovic-Williams and 

others, 1999).

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Status of Metallogenic Mapping in the World Today 121
122 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

a number of volcanogenic exhalative massive sulfide deposits. 

The Otjihase and Matchless cupriferous pyrite bodies are the 

two most important deposits of this group. Similar massive 

sulfide mineralization occurs in the Gariep belt, as exemplified 

by the Rosh Pinah (primary zinc, lead, copper) and Skorpion 

(secondary zinc) deposits, whereas sedimentary-exhalative 

massive sulfides are found in the Kaokoland arm at Tsonguarri 

and Otjorongwari. Carbonate-hosted (Mississippi-Valley-type) 

base-metal mineralization is well developed at Tsumeb, Kombat, Berg Aukas, and Abenab on the Northern Platform of the 

intracratonic shelf. Mineralization associated with highly fractionated posttectonic Damara granites in the central Damara belt 

includes tin, pegmatite-suite minerals, uranium, and gold. Small 

deposits of beryl, pollucite, columbo-tantalite, and lepidolite 

occur in zoned pegmatites, particularly in the Karibib area (that 

is, Rubicon). A group of subparallel northeast-trending tin belts 

constitute probably the largest tin province in Africa (fig. 5). 

Gold-bearing skarn-type mineralization occurs at Navachab, and 

the metamorphogenic alaskite-hosted Rössing uranium deposit 

is the largest of its type in the world. Details on most of these 

deposits are provided by the Namibia Geological Survey (1992).

The Mozambique belt (~660 Ma) can be traced over 

4,000 kilometers along the entire eastern side of the African 

continent (fig. 4) and is characterized by high-grade metamorphism. Like the Zambezi belt, it is a result of Pan-African rejuvenation of older rocks. The Mozambique belt hosts numerous pegmatite-associated deposits with rare earth elements, 

tantalum, niobium, beryllium, mica, and emerald.

The Arabian-Nubian Shield is related to an assemblage of 

accreted island arcs that formed between 870 Ma (rifting phase) 

and 540 Ma (postcollisional granite phase) and is a superb manifestation of relatively young greenstone belts (Berhe, 1997). The 

shield comprises juvenile crust, which formed during a complete 

tectonic cycle, from rifting, the formation of ocean floor and arcs, 

to collision and postcollisional deformation (Agar, 1992; Windley, 

1995). The arc-related volcano-sedimentary terranes host hydrothermal gold-quartz and gold-carbonate vein-type mineralization 

in Ethiopia (for example, Lega Dembi, Adola Greenstone Belt) 

and Eritrea (Gash-Setit Goldfield). Volcanogenic massive sulfide 

(copper, lead, zinc, silver, gold), stratabound sulfide, and sedimentary-exhalative sulfide deposits are also present. Disrupted 

ophiolites of the Arabian-Nubian Shield occur in linear belts up to 

Au

Ba

Be

Cm

Cu

F

Fe

Gsd

Gtm

Gr

Gy

Li

Mn

Pb

RE

Sn

Ti

U

V

W

Wo

Zn

1

5 3

2

4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

Figure 5. Map showing highlights of the Damara metallogenic 

province, a result of the classical Damara orogen. Klein Aub (1), 

Witvlei (2), Oamites (3), and Hobewarte (4) are of pre-Damara 

age; Matchless (5) and Otjihase (6) are examples of Beshi-type 

volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits, and Otjosondu (7) may 

also be rift related; Mississippi-Valley-type deposits of Tsumeb 

(8), Kombat (9), and Berg Aukas (10) are situated on the Northern 

Platform; the Rössing-Goanikontes uranium province (11) is in 

high-grade metamorphic terrane (possibly representing a hot 

spot), whereas Navachab (12) is a skarn-type gold deposit; the 

Sandamap-Krantzberg-Karibib (13), Uis-Strathmore (14), and 

Brandberg West-Goantagab (15) pegmatite fields are all related 

to syntectonic and posttectonic granites of the collisional phase; 

Tsonguarri (16) is one of a group of sedimentary-exhalative 

deposits in the northern coastal extensional arm (Kaokoland belt); 

and the Okorusu fluorspar deposit (17) is part of a large postDamara group of alkaline intrusions. Modified from Killick (1986), 

Namibia Geological Survey (1992), and Pirajno (1998).
900 kilometers long and locally contain stratabound nickel-sulfide 

deposits. Chromium mineralization occurs as podiform ore bodies 

in ultramafic host rocks of Sudan. Tantalum-niobium mineralization is commonly found in late-tectonic alkali granites and (or) 

pegmatites, whereas tin-tungsten mineralization is related to latetectonic greissenized and albitized alkali granites.

The Search for Undiscovered 

Resources

A perception exists in some investment circles that many 

parts of the world have been explored to the extent that the 

chance of making major new discoveries must be very small. 

This view, as far as geological risk factors are concerned, can 

be true only if one takes the present state of knowledge as a 

point of departure. The crux lies in continuously adding value 

to the knowledge base and significantly reducing the admittedly higher investment risk.

This need to keep adding to the knowledge base requires 

detailed geological mapping, high-density geophysical surveys, 

and geochemical mapping. Perhaps more important, however, 

is adding value to the knowledge base by producing state-ofthe-art thematic maps, developing advanced data modeling and 

interpretation techniques and facilities, and generating innovative outputs to stimulate mineral exploration. The archiving 

of geological and mineral resource data and the availability of 

such data are crucial issues, not only for those countries that 

need to attract mining investment to stimulate their economic 

development, but indeed for the mining industry itself. Progressive thinking and bold decisions are required to exponentially 

increase the availability of data by unleashing the enormous 

potential locked up in proprietary data. Goldcorp’s Red Lake 

initiative in Canada (Viljoen, 2000) is a most inspiring example.

Africa is one of the last mining frontiers and is largely 

underresearched, poorly mapped, and underexplored. Consequently, the continent has a large potential for undiscovered 

resources; for instance, in the cratonic environments of central 

and western Africa. The availability of data, particularly in 

digital format, is critical in this regard, as it will facilitate 

unconstrained metallogenic analysis. It has been argued that 

the biggest value of digital data lies in the ability of a wide 

spectrum of users to utilize these data at will, to merge various 

sets of data, and to be innovative. The “International Digital 

Metallogenic Map of Africa” (Veselinovic-Williams and others, 1999) is an attempt to stimulate this process.

Of particular interest in this regard are potentially mineralized terranes that are hidden under large tracts of cover, 

either of Quaternary sediments or of other younger formations. 

The Kalahari and the Karoo basins of southern and central 

Africa are salient examples. Attempts to unravel the basin 

structure and the underlying geology of the Kalahari (Haddon, 

2000, 2001), for example, will undoubtedly facilitate renewed 

metallogenic analysis and exploration, which may lead to new 

discoveries. Advanced metallogenic synthesis and analysis of 

environments that are conducive for large, hidden ore deposits 

remain a vital endeavor to locate undiscovered ore deposits. 

A current CGMW project to produce a map of exceptionally 

large deposits on a worldwide scale (1:25,000,000) is directed 

at this goal.

It is clear that a great deal of diligent work remains to 

be done to expand our knowledge by continued observation 

and documentation and particularly by adding value through 

the integration of relevant data sources, especially regional 

geophysical and geochemical data, and through the application 

of advanced data-modeling techniques. Metallogenic maps 

are indispensable in this regard but must continue to evolve to 

become useful predictive tools, lest they be rendered obsolete.

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Arabian Shield: Precambrian Research, v. 58, p. 169–194.

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M.J., and Ashwal, L.D., eds., Greenstone belts: Oxford, 

Clarendon Press, p. 761–771.

Cahen, L., Snelling, N.J., Delhal, J., and Vail, J.R., 1984, The 

geochronology and evolution of Africa: Oxford, Clarendon 

Press, 512 p.

De Klerk, S.-L., comp., 2001, Gold deposits in the SADC 

[South African Development Community] region: South 

Africa Council for Geoscience, Mineral Resources Survey 

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Africa: Economic Geology, v. 58, no. 5, p. 774–790.

De Wit, M.J., and Ashwal, L.D., eds., 1997, Greenstone belts: 

Oxford, Clarendon Press, 809 p.

Emberger, André, 1991, Carte internationale des gîtes 

minéraux de l’Afrique [International mineral deposits map 

of Africa], 1:5,000,000, [sheet] 1, Rabat–Accra: Paris, Commission for the Geological Map of the World and UNESCO, 

scale 1:5,000,000.

Foster, R.P., and Piper, D.P., 1993, Archaean lode gold deposits in Africa—Crustal setting, metallogenesis and cratonization: Ore Geology Reviews, v. 8, no. 3–4, p. 303–347.

Gueiros, N., Jr., 2000, Intellectual property of scientific 

papers: IGC News, 31st International Geological Congress, 

August 6–17, 2000, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Guilbert, J.M., and Park, C.F., Jr., 1986, The geology of ore 

deposits: New York, Freeman, 985 p.

Guild, P.W., 1971, Metallogeny—A key to exploration: 

Mi­ning Engineering, v. 23, no. 1, p. 69–72.

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Guild, P.W., 1972, Metallogeny and the new global tectonics: 

24th International Geological Congress, Section 4, Mineral 

Deposits, p. 17–24.

Guild, P.W., 1974, Distribution of metallogenic provinces in 

relation to major earth features, in Petrascheck, W.E., ed., 

Metallogenetische und geochemische Provinzen, Metallogenetic and geochemical provinces, [—Proceedings of a] 

symposium [organized with regard to the International Geological Correlation Program], Leoben [Austria], November 1972: Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften 

[Vienna], Erdwissenschaftliche Kommission, Schriftenreihe 

[Austrian Academy of Sciences, Earth Sciences Commission, Publication Series], v. 1, p. 10–24. (Article in English 

with abstract in German.) (Published by Springer-Verlag, 

Vienna and New York.)

Haddon, I.G., comp., 2000, Isopach map of the Kalahari 

Group: Pretoria, South Africa Council for Geoscience, scale 

1:2,500,000.

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Pretoria, South Africa Council for Geoscience, scale 

1:2,500,000.

Killick, A.M., 1986, A review of the economic geology of 

northern South West Africa/Namibia, in Anhaeusser, C.R., and 

Maske, S., eds., Mineral deposits of southern Africa: Johannesburg, Geological Society of South Africa, v. 2, p. 1709–1717.

Konstantinov, M.M., Cherkasov, S.V., Dankovtsev, R.F., and 

Egorkin, A.V., 1999, Specific crustal features for large and 

superlarge endogenic gold deposits (Siberia and Far East 

regions): Global Tectonics and Metallogeny, v. 7, no. 2, p. 

143–147.

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revised): New York, McGraw-Hill, 930 p.

Milesi, J.-P., Ledru, Patrick, Feybesse, J.-L., Dommanget, 

Alain, and Marcoux, Eric, 1992, Early Proterozoic ore 

deposits and tectonics of the Birimian orogenic belt, West 

Africa: Precambrian Research, v. 58, p. 305–344.

Miller, R., McG., 1983, The Pan-African Damara orogen of 

South West Africa/Namibia, in Miller, R., McG., ed., The 

evolution of the Damara orogen of South West Africa/

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University of Witwatersrand, Economic Geology Research 

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Petters, S.W., 1991, Regional geology of Africa: New York, 

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Pirajno, F., 1998, Geology and mineral deposits of Namibia, 

in Vearncombe, Susan, and Ho, S.E., eds., Africa—Geology 

and mineral exploration: Australian Institute of Geoscientists Bulletin 25, p. 61–66.

Pohl, W., 1994, Metallogeny of the northeastern Kibara 

belt, Central Africa—Recent perspectives: Ore Geology 

Reviews, v. 9, p. 105–130.

Robb, L.J., and Robb, V.M., 1998, Gold in the Witwatersrand basin, in Wilson, M.G.C., and Anhaeusser, C.R., 

eds., The mineral resources of South Africa (6th ed.): 

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294–349.

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Orléans, France, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et 

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Wolmarans, L.G., comps., 1999, 1:5 000 000 international digital metallogenic map of Africa, sheets 5 & 6 

(south of the Equator): Pretoria, South Africa Council for 

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the World, scale 1:5,000,000, one CD-ROM, introductory leaflet. (A printed map was published in 2002 on 3 

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1

U.S. Geological Survey, 954 National Center, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, 

Reston, VA 20192–0002, U.S.A. (e-mail: blipin@usgs.gov).

The Use of Mineral Occurrence and Geologic Databases in 

Quantitative Mineral Resource Assessment

By Bruce R. Lipin1 and Walter J. Bawiec1

USGS Mineral Databases

The USGS is in the process of combining two large 

mineral resource databases, MRDS (Mineral Resources Data 

System) and MAS/MILS (Minerals Availability System/Minerals Industry Location System). MRDS was created and is 

maintained by the USGS, and MAS/MILS was created and 

maintained by the former U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM). 

Both databases were started around 1970 and have evolved 

through many different formats over the years. In 1996, Congress eliminated the Bureau of Mines, and MAS/MILS was 

transferred to the USGS.

The two databases were compiled for different purposes 

and contain very different information. For example, MAS/MILS 

contains information on mining and development costs, details of 

mining methods, and results from feasibility studies. In addition, 

MAS/MILS contains records for fossil fuel deposits and for mineral processing plants (mills and smelters) that are not in MRDS. 

MRDS has mineralogical and geologic data that are not contained 

in MAS/MILS. Because MRDS and MAS/MILS are mineral 

databases, they also contain some information in common, such 

as location, name(s) of sites, and commodities present.

Both databases are international in scope but have an 

emphasis on the United States. MRDS contains over 110,000 

records, of which about 80,000 pertain to the United States, and 

MAS/MILS contains about 220,000 records, of which 210,000 

pertain to the United States. Because the USGS and the USBM 

had limited resources, neither database has been systematically updated on a periodic basis. Both organizations added to 

or corrected records in the databases by a variety of means that 

included hiring contractors, entering into cooperative agreements with State geological surveys in the United States and 

national geological surveys in other countries, and entering data 

from areas in which there were ongoing USGS or USBM projects. The result of this approach is that each record is a snapshot 

of a given deposit at the time the data were either first entered or 

last updated. If a deposit has undergone a significant change in 

status since the data were entered, but we have not had reason to 

revisit the area in which the deposit lies, then we commonly do 

not have updated information.

The USGS has merged the data in the two databases into 

one Oracle format with the goals of cleaning the data and 

Introduction

Quantitative mineral resource assessments of undiscovered mineral deposits in a regional setting are relatively new in 

geology. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), among others, 

has pioneered this activity and has developed a procedure 

known as the three-part quantitative assessment of undiscovered mineral resources (Singer, 1993).

Input into the three-part assessment consists of a variety of 

mineral-resource-related thematic data. Ideally, the following 

information is evaluated for a quantitative assessment: mineral 

occurrence data, to locate known mineral localities and their 

attributes; geologic map data, to determine geologic history and 

the current disposition of genetically related geologic map units; 

geophysical data, including both gravity and aeromagnetic 

data, to interpret lithologies and geologic structure beneath the 

surface; geochemical data, to locate anomalies of metallic or 

pathfinder elements at the surface; and exploration history, to 

determine if commodities of a particular mineral deposit type 

previously have been explored and to what result. These datasets, when compiled systematically, constitute databases.

Different aspects of these databases become important depending on the commodity and type of deposit being 

assessed. For example, geophysical data for an area may show 

positive gravity and magnetic anomalies combined with geologic data that show that mafic-ultramafic units are important 

in assessing specific mineral deposit types, such as chromite 

deposits. Other databases (for example, stream sediment geochemical data) may be important in the assessment of Carlintype gold deposits.

This paper describes the use of databases of two different themes, mineral occurrences and geology, in performing a 

preliminary mineral resource assessment of porphyry copper 

deposits in Peru. This preliminary assessment of porphyry 

copper deposits in Peru was prepared for use in a workshop 

on mineral assessment conducted in Lima, Peru (unpub. data, 

February 27–March 1, 2001). In the following discussion, we 

will describe and compare the mineral and geologic databases, 

then review successes and challenges in how these databases 

were used.
126  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

eliminating duplicate records. The new structure has about 

250 available fields for data. Because of increasing emphasis 

on environmental aspects of mining, information on mineral 

processing plants in the MAS/MILS database was retained. 

The USGS did not retain data on energy resources from the 

old USBM database because the USGS already has energy 

databases that cover those deposits. The USGS published a 

CD-ROM set containing the original MRDS and MAS/MILS 

databases (McFaul and others, 2000) and has the MRDS 

online (USGS, 2005).

Other Relevant Mineral Databases

As part of a study to determine if a global quantitative 

mineral resource assessment is feasible using the USGS threepart form of assessment, a preliminary assessment of porphyry 

copper deposits in Peru was initiated. INGEMMET, the Instituto Geológico Minero y Metalúrgico of Peru, provided their 

unpublished geology and mineral deposits databases. Most 

countries have good databases for deposits within their borders 

but do not keep information on other countries.

The following mineral resource databases were used for 

the preliminary quantitative mineral resource assessment of 

Peru:

MRDS and MAS/MILS (USGS, McFaul and others, 

2000)

Peru database of mineral deposits (INGEMMET, unpub. 

data)

Giant porphyry-related camps of the world—A database 

(Mutschler and others, 1999)

World distribution of porphyry, porphyry-associated 

skarn, and bulk-tonnage epithermal deposits and occurrences (Kirkham and Dunne, 2000)

An informal, unpublished database compiled by D.A. 

Singer (USGS). The database was subsequently released 

as USGS Open-File Report 02–268 (Singer and others, 

2002)

Other sources included the following:

Peru database of geology (INGEMMET, unpub. data, 

scale 1:1 million)

Database of exploration targets compiled from press 

releases and various trade magazines (D.R. Wilburn, 

USGS, unpub. data)

Many published reports on copper deposits and geology 

of the Andes

The INGEMMET database of mineral deposits in Peru 

has a structure similar to that of MRDS because of a cooperative agreement between USGS and INGEMMET when the 

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Peruvian database was first developed. However, there are 

several important differences among the four mineral resource 

databases (MRDS, INGEMMET, Mutschler and others, and 

Kirkham and Dunne) used in the preliminary assessment of 

Peru. First, the USGS and INGEMMET databases have many 

more data fields than the other two (MRDS, ~230; INGEMMET, ~140; Mutschler and others, ~30; and Kirkham and 

Dunne, ~50). This disparity exists because databases compiled 

by geological surveys are usually used for many different 

purposes, whereas databases compiled by individual researchers are commonly designed for specific purposes. Moreover, 

compilers of the USGS and INGEMMET databases tried to 

capture everything from the small occurrences to the largest 

producers, whereas compilers of the other two databases concentrated on giant or significant deposits; this difference also 

reflects a difference in the philosophy of the compilers. The 

result is that the USGS and INGEMMET databases have more 

records of small occurrences classified as porphyry copper 

deposits. Many of these identified porphyry copper occurrences never have been, and probably never will be, mined. 

Figure 1. Map showing locations of porphyry copper and 

porphyry-copper-related deposits in Peru used in the preliminary 

quantitative mineral resource assessment.

Peru

Faults

Porphyry copper deposits
The Use of Mineral Occurrence and Geologic Databases in Quantitative Mineral Resource Assessment 127

The most obvious difference among the databases is that the 

USGS and INGEMMET databases cover all types of mineral 

deposits, whereas the other two were designed to cover only 

porphyry and related deposits. All the databases were useful 

because of some unique piece of information they contained 

and because of the confirmation of deposit type classifications 

from multiple sources. When there was disagreement among 

the databases, the references provided were useful in resolving 

them. Sixty-four deposits were identified as porphyry copper 

or porphyry copper related. The locations of these deposits are 

depicted in figure 1.

Geologic Database

Although geologic maps have been available for many 

years as paper products, the relatively recent advent of digital 

geologic maps and associated databases has brought a new 

era to their application in fields such as land use planning and 

mineral exploration. This technology is new and evolving 

quickly; thus, standards for development have not yet been 

fully established and accepted.

In the first phase of evolution of digital geologic maps, 

they simply are representations of previously published paper 

maps. The databases and attribute tables that accompany these 

digital maps reflect only the information contained within the 

hardcopy media. A typical geologic map for an area would 

contain geologic map units, including stratigraphic units and 

geologic ages; structural data, including faults and strike and 

dip symbols; and regional tectonic and depositional settings. 

Digitizing paper maps can convey only the information that 

was on the paper originally. Thus, digitized maps are not superior to paper maps in quality or accuracy.

The geologic data provided by INGEMMET were contained in two files, geology and faults, that together represent the geology of Peru. These were compiled at a scale of 

1:1 million. The digital geology contains 113 different map 

units, which are attributed to approximately 6,700 polygons. 

The fault coverage contains attributes reflecting movement and 

the degree of exposure or level of confidence in fault location. 

This amount of information, although important for many 

types of studies, is far too detailed for a countrywide mineral 

resource assessment. For instance, the original data set showed 

19 different types of Cretaceous intrusions. These were 

combined into a single category because it was concluded 

that their common age range was enough information for the 

purposes of the mineral resource assessment. Therefore, the 

geologic map units are combined into 10 time–stratigraphic 

units on the basis of their temporal relations to episodes of 

porphyry copper deposit formation in Peru. The simplified 

map is displayed in figure 2. The 10 time-stratigraphic units 

formed before, during, between, and after the various episodes 

of porphyry copper formation. Aside from the ease of manipulation of digital geologic maps to create other derivative maps, 

all of these maps are easily combined with other thematic data 

as layers, such as aeromagnetic data, gravity data, geochemical anomalies, remote sensing images, and of course mineral 

occurrences.

Challenges and Successes

Before discussion of challenges and successes, a brief 

explanation of the three-part mineral resource assessment is 

in order. This is a procedure for a quantitative assessment of 

the mineral resources of a given area. Singer (this volume) 

states the following, “In three-part assessments, (1) areas 

are delineated according to the types of deposits permitted by the geology, (2) the amount of metal and some ore 

characteristics are estimated by means of grade and tonnage 

models, and (3) the number of undiscovered deposits of each 

type is estimated.” Deposit models play a very important role 

in the first two parts of the process. In the first part, we use 

descriptive mineral deposit models to determine what types of 

deposits are permissible in the area. In the second part, we use 

grade and tonnage models of each deposit type. By building 

databases of mineral deposits that contain the attributes of 

the deposits (such as age, host rock(s), ore minerals, gangue 

minerals, structural setting, grade, and tonnage), we are able to 

develop the required descriptive and grade and tonnage models 

to carry out the three-part assessments. In addition, we may be 

able to classify individual deposits if sufficient information is 

contained in a database.

The first challenge for the Peru assessment was the 

interpretation of the mineral deposit databases. Some deposit 

types may be spatially and genetically related to porphyry 

systems, such as skarns, manto deposits, polymetallic veins, 

and epithermal gold deposits. However, it is not mandatory that 

those deposit types be related to porphyry systems. In addition, 

many copper deposits in the USGS and INGEMMET databases 

were classified as either stockwork or disseminated, which are 

descriptive terms but not very helpful in assigning them to a 

specific mineral deposit model. The other three porphyry databases were of some assistance in this effort because they pointed 

to literature that confirmed that some of the stockwork and 

disseminated deposits were indeed porphyry or porphyry-related 

deposits. However, many of the deposits labeled stockwork or 

disseminated were small nonproducers and were not included 

in the databases by Mutschler and others (1999), Kirkham and 

Dunne (2000), or Singer and others (2002). Additional work 

was needed to classify these small deposits, including examining such data as ore mineralogy, host-rock type, associated-rock 

type, and mineralization age and consulting many published references. Through this effort we were able to better classify some 

of the small deposits. Nonetheless, some deposits in both the 

USGS and INGEMMET databases remain unclassified because 

of insufficient data; these are being examined in conjunction 

with INGEMMET.

All the databases were in substantial agreement on almost 

all the significant deposits with respect to name, deposit type, 
128  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Simplified time-stratigraphic units

Neogene intrusions

Cretaceous intrusions

Jurassic intrusions

Paleozoic intrusions

Paleogene sedimentary rocks

Mesozoic sedimentary rocks

Paleozoic sedimentary rocks

Precambrian

Unlabeled

Quaternary sedimentary rocks

Figure 2. Simplified time-stratigraphic map of Peru.
The Use of Mineral Occurrence and Geologic Databases in Quantitative Mineral Resource Assessment 129

and location. Many locations were close but not exactly the 

same among the databases. Because mines tend to be large, 

one location may be based on the entrance to the mine, and 

another may be based on the location of the headframe. Both 

locations are correct but different. Many of the discrepancies 

were small, however, commonly a few seconds or less (a second is about 185 meters at the Equator). This was considered 

an acceptable level of uncertainty at a scale of 1:2 million, 

which was the scale at which the assessment was conducted. 

In cases where significant discrepancies existed, we deferred 

to locations used in the INGEMMET database.

The geologic map and fault databases were useful in 

matching rock type to known deposits. They also can be useful 

in identifying structural settings of deposits and their proximity to various types of faults as a way of trying to predict 

where other, perhaps hidden, deposits may occur. However, 

in the case of the fault file provided by INGEMMET, plotting 

the porphyry and related deposits with the faults did not show 

any direct relation, possibly because, at the 1:1 million scale 

at which it was compiled, smaller faults of significance to the 

deposits are not included. Satellite images are being used at a 

much larger scale to further examine the structural setting of 

some of the porphyry deposits.

The unpublished worldwide exploration database compiled by D.R. Wilburn (USGS, Denver) was found to be very 

helpful in the assessment. The exploration database contains 

information on items such as the number of meters drilled 

on exploration sites and status of exploration (from early 

prospecting to final feasibility study). Thus, it is possible to 

judge the chances of a given porphyry prospect becoming a 

producer. Another value of the exploration database was that 

it provided information on whether a prospect was in a known 

mining district or in an area in which few, if any, deposits 

had been found. A major challenge in this dataset was getting 

accurate locations because press releases and articles in trade 

journals, which are the sources for most of the records in this 

database, use location descriptions such as “400 kilometers 

NE of Lima” and rarely give precise locations. If a porphyry 

prospect is in an area that has not previously been explored or 

in which no other deposits were known to exist, it can have a 

profound effect on the estimate of the number of undiscovered 

deposits.

Conclusions

This exercise to assess the porphyry copper deposit 

potential in Peru by using the three-part form of assessment 

has been very helpful. A great deal was learned about the usefulness of different types of data and the limitations of existing 

databases. Priorities now can be established for the type of 

information needed about mineral deposits and occurrences 

for future assessments of a country or group of countries. For 

mineral occurrence databases, the priorities are—

Accurate locations of mineral occurrences

Previous names of deposits for matching and reconciling 

data from different sources

Host-rock type and age

Associated-rock type and age (we distinguish between 

host rock and associated rock in that a porphyry-related 

skarn may be hosted by a limestone and the associated 

rock may be a porphyritic monzonite)

Ages of mineralization

List of ore and non-ore minerals

Genetic, descriptive, and grade and tonnage characterization of the known deposits in the region of interest

For geology databases, the priorities are—

Digitized records of all information on paper maps 

(because one cannot predict what data may be useful)

Lithologic descriptions of all map units

Geologic ages of map units

Types of faults and apparent movement

Relative ages of map units, including whether they formed 

before, during, between, or after the various episodes of 

ore formation

Map projection parameters to allow combining a geologic 

map with other thematic datasets

References Cited

Kirkham, R.V., and Dunne, K.P.E., comps., 2000, World 

distribution of porphyry, porphyry-associated skarn, and 

bulk-tonnage epithermal deposits and occurrences: Geological Survey of Canada Open File 3792a (26 p., 1 diskette) 

and 3792b (map, scale 1:35,000,000). (An updated (2003) 

version of this database is available online at 

http://gdr.nrcan.gc.ca/minres/metadata_e.php?id=6.)

McFaul, E.J., Mason, G.T., Jr., Ferguson, W.B., and Lipin, 

B.R., 2000, U.S. Geological Survey mineral databases—

MRDS and MAS/MILS: U.S. Geological Survey Digital 

Data Series DDS–52, two CD-ROMs.

Mutschler, F.E., Ludington, Steve, and Bookstrom, A.A., 

1999, Giant porphyry-related metal camps of the world—A 

database: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 

99–0556, version 1.0, available online at 

http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/open-file/of99-556.

Singer, D.A., 1993, Basic concepts in three-part quantitative 

assessments of undiscovered mineral resources: Nonrenewable Resources, v. 2, no. 2, p. 69–81.

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130 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Singer, D.A., Berger, V.I., and Moring, B.C., 2002, Porphyry 

copper deposits of the world—Database, maps, and preliminary analysis: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 

02–268, available online at http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/

open-file/of02-268. (An updated version of the file is 

available in USGS Open-File Report 2005–1060, available 

online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1060/.)

U.S. Geological Survey, 2005, Mineral Resources Data System: Reston, Va., U.S. Geological Survey database available 

online at http://tin.er.usgs.gov/mrds/.
1

U.S. Geological Survey, 954 National Center, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, 

Reston, VA 20192–0002, U.S.A. (e-mail: kschulz@usgs.gov).

Example of Continental-Scale Mineral Resource Assessments

U.S. Geological Survey National Mineral Resource Assessment—

An Estimate of Undiscovered Deposits of 

Gold, Silver, Copper, Lead, and Zinc in the United States

By Klaus J. Schulz1 and Joseph A. Briskey1

environment. Responsible stewardship of the Nation’s lands, 

resources, and environment requires information on where 

future mineral resources may exist, the amounts of a mineral 

commodity or commodities that these resources might contain, 

and what environmental impacts might result from extraction 

and development of such resources.

Starting in the early 1990s, the tempo and politicization of 

land, resource, and environmental planning and decisionmaking 

in the United States began accelerating (again). An estimated 

190 million acres of public lands, although lacking modern mineral assessments, was being proposed for withdrawal from areas 

available for mineral exploration, discovery, and production. 

This situation virtually assured that large deposits of undiscovered mineral resources would be withdrawn unknowingly and 

without consideration of alternative supplies.

For a number of reasons, detailed conventional largescale mineral assessments were an impractical response to the 

burgeoning need for minerals information that accompanied 

the accelerating planning and decisionmaking process. (1) 

Deadlines were too short and unpredictable to conduct new 

assessments targeted to specific areas under consideration for 

withdrawal. (2) Locations of areas of concern were unpredictable and the areas under consideration were becoming very 

large (up to tens of millions of acres). (3) The boundaries of 

these areas were uncertain.

Because of this growing unpredictability, it was recognized that what was needed was a nationwide mineral 

assessment database available in advance of the planning 

process for all areas of the country. Unfortunately, the cost 

of providing such comprehensive data at traditional large, 

detailed scales was too high. For example, we estimated that 

collecting comprehensive mineral resource data just for public 

and enclosed private lands at a scale of 1:250,000 would cost 

between $2 billion and $3 billion over a period of 15 years. 

Such a cost was too high, and the time too long. The National 

Mineral Resource Assessment described herein was proposed 

Introduction

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a 5-year 

scientific study—the National Mineral Resource Assessment—to estimate in probabilistic terms, for the first time, the 

amounts of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc that could be 

present in yet-to-be discovered mineral deposits 1 kilometer 

or less below the surface of the United States. Results for the 

conterminous United States were published in 1996 (Ludington and others, 1996). Results for the entire United States, 

including Alaska, were released in 2000 (U.S. Geological 

Survey National Mineral Resource Assessment Team, 2000). 

The national assessment shows that it is likely that the United 

States still contains at least as much gold, silver, copper, lead, 

and zinc in conventional-type deposits as has already been 

discovered.

Why a National Mineral Resource 

Assessment Was Needed

The USGS undertook the National Mineral Resource 

Assessment to provide timely, objective, credible mineral 

resource information for land and resource planning and decisionmaking. As the Nation’s economy matures, progressively 

greater attention is given to land use and environmental quality, as well as to sustainability of mineral supplies to provide 

for the needs of future generations. National mineral resource 

assessments provide a framework for addressing these issues 

by monitoring the Nation’s mineral wealth and by contributing 

to deliberations about resource extraction and protecting the 
132 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

and conducted as an alternative mechanism for developing, 

organizing, consolidating, augmenting, and maintaining large 

geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral resource 

digital databases capable of supporting mineral resource and 

associated mineral environmental assessments and research, at 

multiple scales and levels of detail throughout the country.

How the Assessment Was Done

The nature of available data and current technology, 

combined with limitations of time and money, dictated that the 

national assessment be undertaken from a regional perspective. 

The country was divided into 19 geographic regions that were 

selected to provide broad geologic groupings of the Nation’s 

mineral-producing areas. Each region was assessed by a scientific team composed of from 6 to 24 geologists, geochemists, 

geophysicists, and resource analysts knowledgeable about the 

region and its mineral deposits.

The method used to estimate the quantity and quality of 

undiscovered deposits of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc 

was the three-part quantitative assessment procedure (Singer, 

1993), applied by the USGS increasingly since 1975. This 

procedure is based on mineral deposit models, which consist 

of sets of geoscience data that describe a group of deposits 

having similar geologic settings and distinctive grade and tonnage characteristics.

The first part of the three-part assessment is to prepare 

maps that identify and delineate tracts permissive for the 

occurrence of undiscovered deposits by deposit type (fig. 1). 

A permissive tract is defined by its geographic boundaries 

such that the probability of deposits of the type delineated 

occurring outside the boundary is negligible. Tracts for the 

national assessment were delineated to allow estimates of 

undiscovered resources to be made to a depth of 1 kilometer 

below the surface where possible. Areas that were covered by 

more than 1 kilometer of rock known or inferred to be barren 

were excluded from the assessment. Permissive tracts were 

delineated by interpreting and integrating existing geologic, 

geophysical, and geochemical data and information available on known deposits in the area, all compiled onto maps at 

scales of 1:500,000 and 1:1,000,000.

LS04 1 3 2 4 5

6 7

LS05

1 2

1

CR25

LS02

LS03

NR19

NR20

PC18 SA05

SA06

SA07

SA08 SA09

SB25

SB26

GB21

NR18

PC12

PC13

PC17

PC15

PC14

SA04

PC16

1 2 3 4 5-6

7

1

1-3

1

2

3

1

2

1

1

1

2

3

NA11

NA12

NA13 NA14

NA15

NA16

1

2

1

1

2

SB

GB

NR

CP CR

GP

LS

EC

SA

AD

NA PC AD: Adirondack Mountains

CP: Colorado Plateau

CR: Central and Southern Rocky Mountains

EC: East-central United States

LS: Lake Superior

NA: Northern Appalachian Mountains

NR: Northern Rocky Mountains

PC: Pacific Coast

SB: Southern Basin and Range

GB: Great Basin

SA: Southern Appalachian Mountains 0 50 100 200 300 400 kilometers

Map projection = Albers Equal Area

0 50 100 200 300 400 miles

Figure 1. Tract map for kuroko massive sulfide deposits in the conterminous United States showing areas where the geology is 

permissive for the formation of this type of deposit. Favorable areas are shown by different colors and labels. From Luddington and 

others (1996). Estimates of undiscovered deposits and metal resources in tract PC–17 are shown in figures 2 and 3.
U.S. Geological Survey National Mineral Resource Assessment 133

The second part of the assessment method is estimating 

the number of undiscovered deposits of each deposit type in 

those permissive tracts where available information allows 

quantitative estimates. The number of undiscovered deposits 

is expressed as a probability distribution, with estimates of 

the number of undiscovered deposits made at the 90th, 50th, 

and 10th percentile confidence levels and sometimes at the 

5th and 1st levels (fig. 2). The estimates are made by subjective interpretation and extrapolation of available earth science 

information by geoscientists having detailed knowledge about 

the area and (or) the selected deposit type(s). The estimates 

of numbers of undiscovered deposits are constrained by the 

Figure 2. Chart summarizing probabilistic subjective estimates by experts of numbers of undiscovered kuroko massive sulfide deposits 

in tract PC–17, California (see fig. 1). From Ludington and others (1996). Corresponding amounts of contained metal and mineralized rock 

were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation.

Cu Au Zn Ag Pb Rock

700 0 0 0 0 97,000

12,000 0 12,000 18 0 690,000

140,000 16 260,000 710 46,000 8,500,000

310,000 45 815,000 2,700 200,000 19,000,000

360,000 55 990,000 3,400 250,000 22,000,000

160,000 20 340,000 1,100 76,000 9,200,000

0.46 0.43 0.40 0.38 0.38 0.46

0.04 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.10 0.04

Estimated Undiscovered Deposits

There is a 1% or greater chance of 25 or more deposits.

There is a 5% or greater chance of 25 or more deposits.

There is a 10% or greater chance of 25 or more deposits.

There is a 50% or greater chance of 13 or more deposits.

There is a 90% or greater chance of 2 or more deposits.

Estimated amounts of contained metal and mineralized rock, in metric tons

Quantile

0.95

0.90

0.50

0.10

0.05

Mean

Probability of mean

Probability of zero

Figure 3. Graph showing cumulative distributions of contained metal and mineralized rock (in metric tons) in undiscovered kuroko 

massive sulfide deposits estimated in tract PC–17, California (see figs. 1 and 2). From Ludington and others (1996).

Au

Ag

Pb

Cu

Zn

Rock

See figure 2 for probability 

of zero metric tons

Filled circles display 

mean amounts

PROBABILITY

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00

0.00.1

10

1,000

100,000

10 million

1 billion

100 billion
134  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

requirement that these deposits have grades and tonnages similar to the deposit model appropriate to the tract. Most models 

used in the national assessment were those described by Cox 

and Singer (1986) and Bliss (1992).

The third part of the assessment method uses a Monte 

Carlo simulation computer program to combine the probability distribution of the number of undiscovered deposits with 

the grade and tonnage datasets associated with each deposit 

model to obtain the probability distribution for the undiscovered metal in each tract (Root and others, 1992, 1997). For 

the national assessment, the resulting cumulative probability 

distributions represent the estimated quantities of gold, silver, 

copper, lead, and zinc in each tract and allow various fractals 

and the mean estimates to be obtained for the tracts (fig. 3).

Results of the Assessment

In the national assessment, 55 major deposit models and 

submodel types were used to delineate 447 permissive tracts. 

Quantitative estimates of undiscovered mineral resources were 

possible in 305 of these tracts. In addition to estimating gold, 

silver, copper, lead, and zinc in undiscovered mineral deposits, 

the national assessment (Long and others, 1998; U.S. Geological Survey National Mineral Resource Assessment Team, 

2000) also estimated resources of these metals remaining in, 

and produced from, identified deposits, as follows:

In undiscovered deposits minable with existing techno­logy—18,000 metric tons (t) of gold, 460,000 t of silver, 

290,000 kilotons (kt) of copper, 85,000 kt lead, and 

210,000 kt of zinc.

In identified deposits—15,000 t of gold, 160,000 t of 

silver, 260,000 kt of copper, 51,000 kt of lead, and 55,000 

kt of zinc.

Past production from the largest identified U.S. deposits 

(accounting for about 99 percent of cumulative domestic 

production through 1996)—12,000 t of gold, 170,000 t of 

silver, 91,000 kt of copper, 41,000 kt of lead, and 44,000 

kt of zinc.

Some Implications

The USGS National Mineral Resource Assessment 

provides the first quantitative estimate of the amounts of 

undiscovered gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc in the United 

States. The results suggest that, for conventional-type deposits 

of these five metals, the United States still contains about as 

much in undiscovered deposits as was discovered previously.

Along with providing estimates of the quantity and quality of undiscovered mineral resources, the national assessment 

provides a consistent, systematic database of current geologic 

and mineral resource information at a national scale. This 

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database permits, at least at some minimum level, evaluation 

of the impact of land use decisions on the Nation’s undiscovered mineral resources. Large parts of the areas delineated as 

permissive for occurrence of undiscovered deposits already are 

unavailable for future mineral exploration and development 

because of their use for urban, transportation, and other development and their withdrawal for wilderness, scenic areas of 

various kinds, national parks and monuments, wildlife refuges, 

endangered species protection, and so on. The national assessment database provides Federal, State, and local land management agencies information with which to estimate the potential 

cumulative environmental impact of possible exploration and 

mining activities, to evaluate the potential economic benefits 

of mining in comparison with other land uses, to evaluate and 

plan for the potential impact of mining activities on other land 

uses, and to appraise the fair market value of land proposed for 

leasing, sale, exchange, or taking. The permissive tracts delineated as part of the national assessment also permit industry to 

focus mineral exploration programs on the areas and regions 

most promising for new discoveries.

National assessments conducted on a recurring basis can 

provide a means to help ensure adequate mineral supplies and 

effective stewardship of environmental and other resources in 

the future. The national assessment methodology may serve as 

a guide for undertaking assessments at continental and global 

scales.

References Cited

Bliss, J.D., ed., 1992, Developments in mineral deposit modeling: U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 2004, 168 p. (Also 

available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/b2004/.)

Cox, D.P., and Singer, D.A., eds., 1986, Mineral deposit 

models: U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1693, 379 p. (Also 

available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/b1693/.)

Long, K.R., DeYoung, J.H., and Ludington, S.D., 1998, Database of significant deposits of gold, silver, copper, lead, and 

zinc in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File 

Report 98–206–A (33 p., Database description and analysis) 

and 98–206–B (diskette, Digital database). (Also available 

online at http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/open-file/of98-206/.)

Ludington, Steve, Cox, Dennis, and McCammon, Richard, 

eds., 1996, Data base for a national mineral-resource assessment of undiscovered deposits of gold, silver, copper, lead, 

and zinc in the conterminous United States: U.S. Geological 

Survey Open-File Report 96–96, one CD-ROM. (Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1996/of96-096/.)

Root, D.H., Menzie, W.D., and Scott, W.A., 1992, Computer 

Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative resource assessment: 

Nonrenewable Resources, v. 1, no. 2, p. 125–138.
U.S. Geological Survey National Mineral Resource Assessment 135

Root, D.H., Scott, W.A., Jr., and Selner, G.I., 1997, Computer program for aggregation of probabilistic assessments 

of mineral resources: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File 

Report 96–94, 1 diskette.

Singer, D.A., 1993, Basic concepts in three-part quantitative 

assessments of undiscovered mineral resources: Nonrenewable Resources, v. 2, no. 2, p. 69–81.

U.S. Geological Survey National Mineral Resource Assessment Team, 2000, 1998 Assessment of undiscovered 

deposits of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc in the United 

States: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1178, 21 p., one 

CD-ROM in pocket. (Also available online at 

http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1178/.)
Author Biographies

continued in central Kazakhstan and Yakutia until 1962. Then 

he became a research geologist followed by team leader in the 

All-Russian Geological Research Institute (VSEGEI) in St. 

Petersburg. He received degrees of Candidate of Sciences in 

Geology (1964) in St. Petersburg School of Mines and Doctor 

of Sciences in Geology (1979) in VSEGEI. His main research 

and publications are related to geology and exploration of 

rock crystal, mercury, antimony, and gold-antimony deposits; 

regional metallogeny; and assessment of mineral resources. 

In 1991, he immigrated to the United States and settled in 

California after a year in Maryland. He worked as a volunteer 

in the Maryland University and in the U.S. Geological Survey, 

Menlo Park, Calif. As a consulting geologist, he participated 

in gold prospecting in Australia for the Varuno Company and 

for ASARCO and, briefly, Newmont, in the Russian Far East. 

During the last 7 years, he worked as a contract geologist 

with the USGS, compiling worldwide databases of major ore 

deposit types with Don Singer and assisting Ted Theodore in 

geologic mapping in northeastern Nevada.

Joseph A. Briskey

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va., U.S.A.

Dr. Briskey graduated from Oregon State University in 

1975 with a Ph.D. in geology and economic geology and a 

doctoral thesis on the “Geology, Petrology, and Geochemistry 

of the Jersey, East Jersey, Huestis, and Iona Porphyry CopperMolybdenum Deposits, Highland Valley, British Columbia.” 

He joined the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, Calif., 

in 1975, where he conducted geologic and mineral deposit 

modeling research and served as commodity geologist for zinc 

and lead. His research there also included geologic research 

and mineral resource assessments of 2-degree quadrangles and 

of Indian lands in the Western United States, together with 

studies of Mississippi-Valley-type zinc deposits in the southern Appalachians. In 1985, Dr. Briskey became associate chief 

of the Branch of Western Mineral Resources and, in 1988, was 

transferred to USGS headquarters in Reston, Va., to become 

deputy chief of the Office of Mineral Resources and program 

coordinator for the National Mineral Resources Assessment 

Program. In 1994, Dr. Briskey was awarded a Brookings Institution LEGIS Congressional Fellowship and served for 2 years 

on personal and committee staff of the United States Senate.

Dr. Briskey presently is conducting research and research 

development in three major areas: (1) a feasibility study for 

a global nonfuel mineral resource assessment; (2) resource 

and environmental assessments of iron and steel slag along 

the shore of Lake Michigan; and (3) a new integrated science 

Walter J. Bawiec

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va., U.S.A.

Walter J. Bawiec is a research geologist in the Eastern Mineral Resources Team of the U.S. Geological Survey 

(USGS), based in Reston, Va. His current assignments are (1) 

project leader responsible for geographic information systems 

(GIS) and computer infrastructure of the Eastern Mineral 

Resources Team, (2) task leader responsible for GIS in the 

Global Mineral Resource Assessment Project (GMRAP), and 

(3) participant in a project to make data produced by the Minerals Program of the USGS available to the public. He has been 

involved in studies related to the assessment of mineral and 

petroleum resources and is considered an expert in GIS. He 

received a B.S. in geology from Waynesburg College, Pa., and 

an M.S. in geology from the George Washington University, 

Washington, D.C. He is a member of the Geological Society of 

America and the American Geophysical Union. He has been 

employed by the U.S. Geological Survey full time since 1974. 

He served 3 years (1970–73) in the U.S. Army field artillery. He 

is author or coauthor of more than 35 scientific papers.

Jens Dieter Becker-Platen

Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, 

Hannover, Germany

Dr. Becker-Platen has been vice president of the Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe BGR (Federal 

Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources and the Lower 

Saxony Geological Survey NLfB) since 1992. Beginning in 

1958, he studied geology at the Universities of Freiburg i. Br., 

Braunschweig, and Bonn. He received his doctorate from the 

University of Hannover. He was involved in technical cooperation projects concerned with lignite exploration in Greece and 

Turkey. He joined the NLfB and BGR in 1968, and since then 

he has held various management positions in the NLfB, mainly 

in the mineral deposits and applied geology fields. He was 

president of the International Peat Society from 1995 to 2000.

Vladimir I. Berger

U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, Calif., U.S.A.

Dr. Berger was born in 1931 in Moscow, Russia. In 

Tadjikistan, he graduated from Dushanbe State University 

in 1953 as an economic geologist. A career in prospecting 

and exploration began in 1949 in the Pamirs Mountains and 
138  Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

project with the USGS Biological Resources Division to investigate uses of “Mineral-Resource Assessments for Protecting 

Ecosystem Biodiversity and Health While Planning Nonfuel 

Mineral Supply in the Next Century.” Dr. Briskey serves on a 

number of committees for the American Geological Institute, 

Society of Economic Geologists, and International Association 

on the Genesis of Ore Deposits (IAGOD).

Thomas K. Bundtzen

Pacific Rim Geological Consulting, Inc., Fairbanks, Alaska, 

U.S.A.

Thomas K. Bundtzen is a senior mineral deposits and 

regional geologist for Alaska. While participating in the associated project for the paper in this volume, he was a senior geologist 

in the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys. 

Currently, he is the president of a major consulting company, 

Pacific Rim Geological Consulting, Inc., Fairbanks, Alaska.

Lesley Chorlton

Geological Survey of Canada, Ottawa, Canada

Lesley Chorlton is a graduate of McGill University (B.S., 

1968; M.S., 1973) and Memorial University of Newfoundland 

(Ph.D., 1984). She was regional geologist, Southwest Newfoundland, for the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador during the federally and provincially funded agreement 

to complete geological mapping of Newfoundland, 1977–82. 

After working as a regional economic geologist for the Ontario 

Geological Survey, 1984–89, she redirected her career to 

geological applications of geographical information systems, 

obtaining a diploma at Sir Sanford Fleming School of Natural 

Resources. Developing an information system for the generalized geology of the world and functioning as data manager 

for the world mineral deposit databases of the World Minerals 

Geoscience Database Project, Geological Survey of Canada, 

have since been her principal occupations.

Charles G. (Skip) Cunningham

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va., U.S.A.

Charles (Skip) Cunningham is a research geologist with 

the U.S. Geological Survey in Reston, Va. He is an economic 

geologist specializing in ore deposits in volcanic and subvolcanic 

environments, fluid-inclusion geothermometry and geobarometry, 

and light-stable isotopes, as applied to problems of ore genesis 

and mineral resource evaluation. He received his B.A. degree 

from Amherst College in 1967, a Masters from the University 

of Colorado in 1969, and his Ph.D. from Stanford University in 

1973. Skip has worked at the USGS for almost 30 years on ore 

deposit projects throughout the Western United States and the 

Circum-Pacific. He has published numerous maps and papers 

about the Colorado Mineral Belt, Marysvale volcanic field, and 

Nevada gold deposits and topical subjects such as paleothermal 

anomalies and fluid-inclusion studies of mineralizing systems. 

Skip is known throughout the Andes for his studies on oreforming processes related to volcanic domes and calderas. His 

administrative responsibilities have included program coordinator 

for the Development of Assessment Techniques Program (USGS 

Ore Deposit Research Program), vice president of the Society of 

Economic Geologists, USGS acting eastern regional geologist, 

and co-manager of a cooperative project on volcanic processes 

and precious-metal mineralization in the central Andes with the 

geological surveys of Peru, Chile, and Bolivia.

Kenneth M. Dawson

Terra Geological Consultants, Vancouver, Canada

Kenneth M. Dawson is a senior mineral deposits geologist for the Canadian Cordillera. While participating in the 

associated project for the paper in this volume, he was a senior 

scientist at the Geological Survey of Canada in Vancouver, 

British Columbia. He is currently the leader of Terra Geological Consultants in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Nikolai L. Dobretsov

United Institute of Geology, Geophysics and Mineralogy, 

Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (SB RAS), 

Novosibirsk, Russia

Academician Dobretsov was born in Leningrad (now St. 

Petersburg) in 1936. He graduated from the Leningrad Mine 

Institute in 1957. During 1957–60, he worked as a geologist, 

then a party chief in the Altai region. He was a research fellow, 

head of laboratory, and head of department in the Institute of 

Geology and Geophysics, SB RAS, Novosibirsk (1960–80); 

director of the Geological Institute, Buryat Affiliate of SB RAS, 

Ulan-Ude (1980–88); chairman of Presidium, Buryat Scientific Center (1987–89); director of the Institute of Geology and 

Geophysics, SB RAS, Novosibirsk (since 1988) and, after it 

was reorganized in 1990, director general of the United Institute 

of Geology, Geophysics and Mineralogy SB RAS. He served 

as the first deputy chairman (since 1990) and chairman (since 

1997) of the Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 

vice president of RAS. He was a professor (1966–80) and head 

of a faculty at the Novosibirsk State University (1991–97).

Nikolai Dobretsov took an active part in and provided 

guidance for many national and international projects on ophiolites, geodynamics, mineral resources, and global environmental and climatic change; he helped promote the establishment of the Association of Asian Academies of Sciences. He 

was elected the first vice president (2000) and president (2002) 

of the association. Nikolai Dobretsov authored and coauthored 

more than 450 scientific articles, including 20 monographs 

dedicated to the problems of geology, mineralogy, magmatic 

and metamorphic petrology, tectonics, plutonic geodynamics, 

and mineral deposits.
Author Biographies 139

Michael D. Doggett

Queen’s University, Kingston, Canada

Michael Doggett is the director of the Mineral Exploration Master’s Program and associate professor in the Department of Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering at 

Queen’s University, Kingston, Canada. He is also a visiting 

international professor at the Western Australian School 

of Mines in Perth, Australia. He holds degrees in geology 

and mineral economics from Mount Allison University and 

Queen’s University. Dr. Doggett has carried out a wide range 

of assignments on mineral policy and planning issues for 

exploration and mining companies, governments, and international agencies. His main areas of teaching and research relate 

to the economic analysis of mineral exploration and acquisition at both the corporate and industrywide levels. Current 

research includes evaluating mineral development potential 

in northern Canada, assessing mining legislation changes in 

China, and determining the impact of world-class deposits on 

corporate exploration and acquisition strategies.

Roman A. Eremin (retired)

formerly Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan, Russia

Roman A. Eremin is a senior mineral deposits geologist for the Russian Northeast. While participating in the 

associated project for the paper in this volume, he was a 

senior research scientist at the Northeast Integrated Scientific 

Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan, 

Russian. He currently is retired and lives in Belarus.

Nikolai A. Goryachev

Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan, Russia

Nikolai A. Goryachev is a senior mineral deposits and 

regional geologist for the Russian Northeast. He is the associate director for the Northeast Integrated Scientific Research 

Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan, Russia.

Erik Hammerbeck (deceased)

formerly Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, South Africa

Erik Hammerbeck was born and raised in Namibia and 

studied geology at the universities of Stellenbosch and Pretoria 

in South Africa. In 1969, he spent a year in Germany under a 

Von Humboldt Fellowship. After a short spell at the Tsumeb 

Mine in Namibia, he joined the Geological Survey of South 

Africa. He worked most of his life in economic geology and 

metallogeny and was instrumental in the production of various publications on the mineral resources of southern Africa, 

metallogenic maps, and the creation of mineral resource databases. The Mineral Resources Handbooks and Metallogenic 

Maps of South Africa (scale 1:1 million) and the “International Digital Metallogenic Map of Africa” (scale 1:5 million), 

with its attendant database, are cases in point. Internationally 

he participated in various endeavors, notably the International 

Strategic Minerals Inventory (ISMI), the Commission for the 

Geological Map of the World (CGMW), and the International 

Association on the Genesis of Ore Deposits (IAGOD). He was 

formerly president of the CGMW’s Subcommission for Metallogenic Maps and president of IAGOD; he served the Geological Society of South Africa as president in 1992–93. Erik was 

manager of strategic planning for the Council for Geoscience 

(formerly the Geological Survey of South Africa). He passed 

away on April 24, 2006.

Lief R. Horwitz

U.S. Geological Survey, Seattle, Wash., U.S.A.

Lief Horwitz received an M.A. in urban and regional 

planning from the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State 

University in 1998. He joined the Biological Resources 

Division of the USGS in 1998 as a Presidential Management Intern and initially worked in the capacity of a budget 

analyst. Since February 1999, he has been a program analyst 

in the USGS Gap Analysis Program, where he is primarily involved in new initiative and partnership development, 

education, and outreach.

Alexander V. Kanygin

United Institute of Geology, Geophysics and Mineralogy, 

Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (SB RAS), 

Novosibirsk, Russia

Alexander V. Kanygin was born in Omsk on January 

10, 1936. He graduated from the Moscow State University in 

1960. During 1960–62, he worked in the Novosibirsk geological party. He was a postgraduate, junior, and then senior 

research fellow at the Institute of Geology and Geophysics, 

SB RAS (since 1962); head of laboratory (since 1975), and 

head of paleontology and stratigraphy department (since 

1987). After the reorganization of the Institute of Geology and 

Geophysics and foundation of the Institute of Geology (1989) 

and Institute of Petroleum Geology (1996) at the United 

Institute of Geology, Geophysics and Mineralogy, he occupied 

the same positions. He has served as professor (since 1998) 

and head of the faculty of historical geology and paleontology 

at the Novosibirsk State University (since 1999). A. Kanygin 

authored and coauthored more than 240 scientific articles, 

including 2 personal and 8 composite monographs dedicated 

to the problems of stratigraphy, paleogeography, paleontology, 

paleoecology, biosphere evolution, and regional and petroleum geology of Siberia. He took part in a number of regional, 

Federal, and international projects on geological correlation, 

global environmental change, and petroleum reserves of 

Siberia.
140 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Stephen E. Kesler

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich., U.S.A.

Steve Kesler is professor of economic geology and associate chair in the Department of Geological Sciences at the 

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich. His research and 

teaching interests include the geology and geochemistry of ore 

deposits, mineral exploration, and mineral economics, as well 

as environmental geochemistry related to the recovery and use 

of minerals. He is the author of “Our Finite Mineral Resources” 

(1976, McGraw-Hill, 120 p.) and “Mineral Resources, Economics and the Environment” (1994, Macmillan, 391 p.). Along 

with his students, he has worked on a wide range of geologic 

problems related to ore deposits with an emphasis on gold and 

porphyry copper deposits. He has also been active in exploration and mining efforts in a number of areas, particularly in the 

Caribbean-Central America region. Steve has been active in a 

number of professional organizations and served as president of 

the Society of Economic Geologists in 1998.

Alexander I. Khanchuk

Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladivostok, Russia

Alexander I. Khanchuk is a senior regional geologist and 

tectonist for the Russian Southeast, director of the Far East 

Geological Institute, and vice president of the Far East Branch 

of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladivostok, Russia.

Alexey E. Kontorovich

Institute of Petroleum Geology of the United Institute of 

Geology, Geophysics and Mineralogy, Siberian Branch, 

Russian Academy of Sciences (SB RAS), Novosibirsk, Russia

Alexey Emilievich Kontorovich, born in 1934 in Kharkov, now the Ukraine, graduated from the Tomsk State University in 1956. In 1958–89, he served as senior scientist, head 

of laboratory, head of department, and deputy director of the 

Siberian Scientific Research Institute of Geology, Geophysics, and Mineral Resources. Beginning in 1989, he was deputy 

director general of the United Institute of Geology, Geophysics and Mineralogy SB RAS, and in 1997, he was director 

of the Institute of Petroleum Geology as a part of the United 

Institute of Geology, Geophysics and Mineralogy of the SB 

RAS. Since 1983, he has been a professor at the Novosibirsk 

State University (NSU) and, since 1988, head of the department of mineral deposits of the NSU. He is a full member of 

the Russian Academy of Sciences (1991), member of the Presidium of the Siberian Branch of RAS (1991), and chairman of 

the Scientific Council of RAS on the problems of geology and 

development of oil and gas fields (2002). He is the supervisor 

of regional and Federal state programs on the studies of oil 

and gas resources in Siberia and throughout Russia.

A. Kontorovich is the author and coauthor of more than 

500 scientific works, including more than 30 monographs on 

the problems of regional geology of Siberia, naphthidogenesis, 

petroleum geology, isotopic and molecular organic geochemistry, quantitative prediction of petroleum potential and methods 

of simulational mathematical modeling of geologic exploration, and prediction of development of the oil and gas complex 

in Siberia and Russia. He is the winner of the State Prize of 

the Russian Federation and prizes of the Russian Federation 

Government and was awarded orders and medals.

Penny Flick Langhammer

Conservation International, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.

Penny Langhammer is senior manager for Africa-Eurasia 

Conservation Outcomes in the Center for Applied Biodiversity 

Science (CABS) at Conservation International (CI). In her role 

at CABS, Penny provides scientific and technical support to 

CI’s regional programs and partners in the definition of biodiversity conservation targets at the species, site, and landscape 

levels. Her region of focus includes the biodiversity hotspots 

and wilderness areas in Africa and Eurasia. She holds a degree 

in environmental management from Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment.

Robert Laramée

Geological Survey of Canada, Ottawa, Canada

Robert Laramée is a geologist and computer scientist. He 

obtained his B.S. in geology in 1969 from the Université de Montréal and a Certificat en informatique de gestion in 1984 from the 

Université du Québec à Hull. Robert first worked for the Geological Survey of Canada in 1967 and joined the Geomathematics 

Section, Mineral Resources Division, in the fall of 1971. He also 

taught computer science at the Université du Québec à Hull in 

1989. Robert’s main interest is in the application of information technology to the solution of geological (especially mineral 

deposit) problems. His activities have ranged from programming 

geographic coordinate conversions to designing mineral deposit 

databases. Robert is currently working on the World Minerals 

Geoscience Database Project as mineral deposits database specialist. His main activity is the development of a database schema 

suitable for any type of mineral deposits on a world scale and 

of accompanying software tools to enter and edit data, to safely 

upgrade the database schema, to interrogate the database, and to 

produce output in a variety of formats.

Bruce R. Lipin

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va., U.S.A.

Bruce R. Lipin was born in New York City, U.S.A., in 

1947. He attended undergraduate school at City College of 

New York and graduated with a B.S. in geology. He received 

his Ph.D. in mineralogy-petrology from The Pennsylvania 

State University in 1975. He has been with the U.S. Geologi-
Author Biographies 141

cal Survey since 1974 and has done research in lunar experimental petrology and the origin and distribution of mineral 

deposits—specializing in chromite and platinum, layered 

igneous complexes, especially the Stillwater Complex in Montana, U.S.A. He is currently the chief of the USGS minerals 

database project and is a part of the global mineral resource 

assessment feasibility team.

Gregory Ellis McKelvey

Global Mine Discovery Partnership, LLC, Scottsdale, Ariz., 

U.S.A.

Gregory E. McKelvey has 35 years of exploration and 

mineral discovery experience. He is presently manager of 

Global Mine Discovery Partnership, LLC, a private consulting 

and mineral discovery company that he founded after retiring 

from Phelps Dodge Exploration Corporation as vice president 

for Latin America exploration. He has held positions with 

the U.S. Geological Survey (1989–91), Cominco American 

Resources, Incorporated (1975–88), Homestake Mining Company (1974 and 1975), Bear Creek Mining Company (1965–

74), and Nicol Industrial Minerals (summers of 1961–64). He 

received a B.A. in geology from the University of Montana at 

Missoula in 1966 and an M.S. degree in geology from Franklin and Marshall College, Lancaster, Pa., in 1967.

James W. H. Monger

Geological Survey of Canada, Vancouver, Canada

James W.H. Monger is a senior regional tectonist for the 

Canadian Cordillera. While participating in the associated 

project for the paper in this volume, he was a senior research 

scientist for the Geological Survey of Canada, Vancouver, 

British Columbia. He is currently an emeritus research geologist for the Geological Survey of Canada.

Warren J. Nokleberg

U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, Calif., U.S.A.

Dr. Warren J. Nokleberg is a research geologist in the 

Western Mineral Resources Team of the U.S. Geological 

Survey, based in Menlo Park, Calif. His current assignment is 

regional coordinator for Northeast Eurasia for the Global Mineral Resource Assessment Project (Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, 

Mongolia, and China, South Korea, and Japan). His past 

assignment was leader of a project on the Mineral Resources 

and Metallogenesis of Northeast Asia (Siberia, Mongolia, 

northeastern China, South Korea, and Japan). Since starting 

graduate school in 1965, his major research emphases have 

been on the mineral deposits, metallogenesis, bedrock geology, and tectonics of the central Sierra Nevada in California, 

the Stillwater Complex in Montana, eastern Alaska, the Russian Far East, and Northeast Asia. He received a B.A. in geology from the University of California Los Angeles in 1961 

and a Ph.D. in geology from the University of California Santa 

Barbara in 1970. He is a fellow of the Geological Society of 

America, a fellow of the Society of Economic Geologists, and 

a member of the American Geophysical Union. He has been 

employed by the USGS on a part-time or full-time basis since 

1966 and recently completed 32 years of full-time U.S. Government service. He was a Regular Line Officer, U.S. Navy for 

4 years (1961–65), was an associate professor of geology at 

California State University, Fresno, for 6 years (1970–76), and 

is author or coauthor of more than 240 scientific papers.

George A. Nooten (retired)

formerly United Nations Revolving Fund for Natural Resources 

Exploration (UNRFNRE), New York, U.S.A.

George A. Nooten has been in the service of UNRFNRE 

for the past 21 years. He has acquired extensive international 

experience through designing, planning, negotiating agreements, and managing the execution of mineral exploration 

programs in several developing countries, including Tanzania, 

Mozambique, Cote d’Ivoire, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Yemen, 

and Sri Lanka. His most recent discoveries are the Geita Hill 

and Nyamulilima gold deposits in northwestern Tanzania. The 

12-million-ounce Geita mine was opened on August 3, 2000. 

Prior to joining the UNRFNRE in 1979, he worked as chief 

geologist for the bauxite mines in Linden, Guyana, and as a 

geologist for the Iron Ore Company of Canada, INCO, and the 

Quebec Ministry of Natural Resources. He took his undergraduate studies in geology at Queen’s University, Kingston, 

Canada, and received a M.S. (Minex) from the same university. George retired in 2002.

Alexander A. Obolenskiy

Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia

Alexander A. Obolenskiy is a senior mineral deposits 

geologist for eastern Siberia. For more than 50 years, he has 

studied the mineral deposits and regional geology of this 

region as a senior scientist in the Institute of Geology, Russian 

Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia.

Leonid M. Parfenov (deceased)

formerly Russian Academy of Sciences, Yakutsk, Russia

Leonid M. Parfenov was a senior regional geologist and 

tectonist for eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. He 

was a senior scientist and laboratory chief in institutes of the 

Russian Academy of Sciences in Novosibirsk, Khabarovsk, 

and Yakutsk. Most recently, he was vice president of the 

Yakutian Academy of Sciences and director of the Institute 

of Diamonds and Noble Metal Geology, Russian Academy of 

Sciences, Yakutsk. Leonid passed away in August of 2002.
142 Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development

Vladimir V. Ratkin

consulting geologist, Russia

Vladimir V. Ratkin is a senior mineral deposits geologist 

for the Russian Southeast. While participating in the associated project for the paper in this volume, he was a senior scientist and laboratory chief in the Far East Geological Institute, 

Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladivostok. He is currently a 

consulting geologist in European Russia.

Sergey M. Rodionov

Russian Academy of Sciences, Khabarovsk, Russia

Sergey M. Rodionov is a senior mineral deposits and 

regional geologist for the Russian Southeast. He is also the 

associate director of the Institute of Tectonics and Geophysics, 

Russian Academy of Sciences, Khabarovsk.

Klaus J. Schulz

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va., U.S.A.

Dr. Klaus J. Schulz is a research geologist with the U.S. 

Geological Survey in the Eastern Mineral Resources Team, 

Reston, Va. He currently directs USGS efforts to evaluate the 

feasibility of conducting quantitative global assessments of undiscovered nonfuel mineral resources. He has previously directed 

and (or) participated in several regional and detailed-scale mineral 

resource assessments, including the USGS-Costa Rican National 

Mineral Resource Assessment and the U.S. National Mineral 

Resource Assessment for Undiscovered Deposits of Gold, Silver, 

Copper, Lead, and Zinc. He has also organized and co-directed 

several workshops, the most recent being the IUGS/UNESCO 

(International Union of Geological Sciences/United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) Deposit-Modeling 

Workshop on Base- and Precious-Metal Deposits in the Arabian 

Shield, November 12–19, 1999, in Jiddah, Saudi Arabia. Dr. 

Schulz’s research has focused on the metallogeny of Precambrian 

terranes and on volcanic-hosted and magmatic sulfide mineral 

deposits. He is the current USGS member of the IUGS/UNESCO 

Deposit Modeling Program steering committee. He served as the 

chief of the USGS Branch of Eastern Mineral Resources from 

1989 to 1996. Dr. Schulz holds a B.S. degree in geology from the 

University of Wisconsin, an M.S. degree in petrology from the 

University of Minnesota, and a Ph.D. in igneous petrology/geochemistry from the University of Minnesota.

Deborah J. Shields

U.S. Forest Service, Ft. Collins, Colo., U.S.A.

Dr. Deborah Shields is principal mineral economist for 

the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Forest Service, 

Research and Development Division. She directs the agency’s 

energy and mineral economics and mineral policy research 

programs, providing technical and scientific input to the Forest 

Service Strategic Plan, the Resource Planning Act Assessment, 

and the National Forest planning process. In addition, she 

leads the agency’s effort to include nonrenewable resources 

in sustainable forest management, working with stakeholders 

in other government agencies, Tribal governments, industry, 

academia, and nongovernmental organizations to develop indicators of sustainability for energy and mineral resources. She 

has organized and will be co-director of an advanced research 

workshop (ARW) entitled “Sustainable Mineral Resource 

Management in Karst Areas.” The ARW is sponsored by the 

NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) Scientific Affairs 

Division and by UNESCO (United Nations Educational, 

Scientific and Cultural Organization), UNEP (United Nations 

Environment Programme), the USDA Forest Service, and the 

Geological Survey of Slovenia. Deborah also provides technical support on sustainability issues to the U.S. delegation to 

the meetings of the Mining Ministers of the Americas. Finally, 

she is program manager for human dimensions research for 

the Front Range Ecosystem Management Project.

Prior to working for the Forest Service, Dr. Shields 

worked for the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of 

Mines, specializing in international mineral supply and trade 

analysis and forecasting. She has published in the areas of 

sustainability policy and theory, utility theory and welfare 

economics, decision theory and decision-support systems, and 

network modeling. She holds a B.S in wildlife management 

from Colorado State University, an M.S. in mineral economics 

from the Colorado School of Mines, and a Ph.D. in rangeland 

ecosystem science from Colorado State University.

Vladimir I. Shpikerman

All-Russian Geological Research Institute (VSEGEI), 

St. Petersburg, Russia

Vladimir I. Shpikerman is a senior mineral deposits and 

regional geologist for the Russian Northeast. While participating in the associated project for the paper in this volume, he 

was a senior scientist and laboratory chief in the Northeast 

Integrated Scientific Research Institute, Russian Academy of 

Sciences, Magadan, Russia. He is currently a senior mineral 

deposits geologist in the All-Russian Geological Research 

Institute (VSEGEI) in St. Petersburg, Russia.

W. David Sinclair

Geological Survey of Canada, Ottawa, Canada

Dave Sinclair is a graduate of the University of Toronto 

(B.S., 1966) and the University of Wisconsin (M.S., 1970; 

Ph.D., 1973). From 1973 to 1977, he was employed by the 

Department of Indian Affairs and Northern Development in 

Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, as a district geologist and was acting resident geologist in 1976–77. In 1977, he joined the Geological Survey of Canada in Ottawa, where he has specialized 
Author Biographies 143

in the geology of granite-related mineral deposits. He currently 

manages the World Minerals Geoscience Database Project.

Donald A. Singer

U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, Calif., U.S.A.

Donald Singer is primarily interested in the application 

of quantitative methods to mineral resource assessments and 

exploration. He has written more than 200 papers on resource 

assessments, deposit models, quantitative methods, and exploration strategies. Recent work has been on developing and testing 

methods such as neural networks to integrate geoscience information for resource assessments and exploration. The Society of 

Economic Geologists awarded him its Silver Medal in 1999. He 

has been a geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo 

Park, Calif., since 1973. Prior to this, he was a system analyst 

with Kennecott Copper. Don holds a Ph.D. in mineralogy and 

petrology from The Pennsylvania State University.

Milica Veselinovic-Williams

Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, South Africa

Mrs. Milica Veselinovic-Williams studied at Belgrade 

University, Yugoslavia, and obtained her B.S. (Hons.) in geology in 1985. Subsequently, she worked as an exploration geologist for the Geoinstitut, Belgrade. In 1992, she obtained her 

M.S. in exploration geology from Rhodes University, South 

Africa. She joined the Council for Geoscience (formerly the 

Geological Survey of South Africa) in 1994 and became the 

main author of the “1:5 000 000 International Digital Metallogenic Map of Africa” and its database. Under her supervision, 

the first edition of sheets 5 and 6 (south of the Equator) was 

published in digital GIS format on a CD-ROM in June 1999. 

Milica is also extensively involved in the design and development of a number of GIS database models for the production 

of metallogenic maps.

Gotthard Walser

World Bank, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.

Dr. Walser is a senior mining specialist at the Mining 

Department of the World Bank, Washington, D.C. Through 

advising services or technical assistance loans, the focus of 

his activity is to assist governments to develop their mining 

sector and promote investments leading to sustainable development through policy, legal, and institutional reforms, as well 

as capacity building, environmental protection, and improved 

community participation. He is particularly interested in the 

reform of public mining institutions and strengthening of 

governance; in the development of geoscientific, environmental, and mining information systems; and in environmental and 

social issues related to mining. He currently leads or participates in projects in Algeria, Argentina, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, 

Madagascar, Mauritania, and Mozambique.

Prior to joining the World Bank in 1994, Dr. Walser 

worked with the Swedish Geological Survey, and later with its 

International Division, for more than 15 years, gaining broad 

professional and management experience. Responsibilities 

during this period included the planning and management of 

regional mapping and mineral resource assessment programs, 

as well as ore exploration, mine evaluation, and development 

projects; this work occurred through assignments both in 

Sweden and overseas, including many African and, particularly after 1982, Latin American countries. Dr. Walser holds a 

B.S., M.S. and Ph.D. in earth sciences from the University of 

Geneva in Switzerland.

Friedrich-Wilhelm Wellmer

Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, 

Hannover, Germany

Professor Wellmer (Dr.-Ing., Dr. h.c.) became president 

of the Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe 

(Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources and 

the Lower Saxony Geological Survey) in 1996. He studied 

mining and geology at the Technical Universities of Berlin and 

Clausthal. He worked for the German mining company Metallgesellschaft AG and its Canadian and Australian subsidiaries 

in Europe, North and South America, Australia, Oceania, and 

the Far East. Before joining the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, the Federal German Geological 

Survey BGR in Hannover, he was director of exploration at the 

Metallgesellschaft of Australia Pty. Ltd. in Melbourne. Professor Wellmer also teaches raw materials policy and economic 

geology at the Technical University of Berlin. He was awarded 

an honorary doctorate of the Technical University Mining 

Academy of Freiberg in 1999 and of the Technical University 

of Clausthal in 2003.
Arrow indicates workshop venue.

Briskey and Schulz, eds.—Proceedings, Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Sustainable Development—Circular 1294