Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| March 2015 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Missouri River Basin 

March 2015 

National - Significant Events for December 2014 - February 2015

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Mountain Snowpack

Regional - Climate Overview for December 2014 - February 2015

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

December 1, 2014 - February 28, 2015

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

December 1, 2014 - February 28, 2015

Missouri Basin Mountain Snowpack

03/01/2015

Highlights for the Basin

Extreme warmth occurred across the western U.S. 

this winter and western portions of the Missouri 

River Basin states were impacted. With records 

starting in 1895, Wyoming had its 9th warmest 

December, 9th warmest January, and 7th warmest 

February. Overall, it was Wyoming’s 3rd warmest 

winter on record, Colorado’s 8th warmest, and 

Montana’s 12th warmest.

Several new records were set for highest January 

temperature ever recorded in Kansas, Nebraska, 

South Dakota, and Wyoming. With records going 

back to 1887, Topeka, Kansas set a new record 

with a high temperature of 78°F on the 28th.

Fargo, North Dakota set a new record for latest 

1-inch snowfall. Although several lighter snows 

fell, the first 1-inch snowfall did not occur until 

February 10th. The previous record occurred 

January 27, 1944 (period of record 1885-2015).

February was a snowy month for parts of 

Colorado with some locations having their 

snowiest February on record. With 54.8 inches 

of snow, Boulder, Colorado broke its old record 

by over 20 inches! Boulder has snowfall records 

extending back to 1893.

Despite periods of extreme warmth, 

mountain snowpack is near median for 

the Missouri River headwaters. The warm 

temperatures this winter led to early 

snowmelt and increased flows in the Missouri 

River and its tributaries. According to the 

latest outlooks, no significant flooding is 

expected in the basin due to mountain snow 

runoff during the spring season. There is a 

risk of minor to moderate flooding in lower 

portions of the basin due to convective 

activity; however, this risk is typical in spring.

As usual, precipitation varied this winter. 

Areas of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, and 

Nebraska received above normal precipitation, 

but as a whole, these states were near 

average. The largest departures of 200 percent 

of normal precipitation were generally isolated 

to central Wyoming and eastern Colorado. 

Other areas were quite dry, including Missouri, 

eastern North Dakota, much of South Dakota, 

central and southeastern Kansas, and an area 

encompassing northwestern Colorado and 

southwestern Wyoming.

Extreme temperatures were a common theme 

this winter. Although December and January 

were overall quite warm across the region, 

there were interspersed periods of extreme 

cold. Meanwhile, February was dominated 

by a strong ridge/trough pattern with the 

Missouri River Basin states situated on the 

dividing line. This resulted in temperatures 

that were largely near normal with warmer 

weather to the west and cooler weather to the 

east. The resulting winter temperature pattern 

can be seen above.

The average US temperature during February was 33.0°F, 0.7°F below average. The winter US 

temperature was 34.3°F, 2.1°F above average. February US precipitation was 1.70 inches, 0.43 inch 

below average. The winter precipitation total was 6.12 inches, 0.67 inch below average.

Please Note: Material provided in this map was compiled from the NOAA’s NCDC State of the Climate 

Reports. For more information please visit: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
Regional - Impacts for December 2014 - February 2015

Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| March 2015

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for April - June 2015 MO River Basin Partners

:#regionalclimateoutlooks

High Plains Regional Climate Center

www.hprcc.unl.edu

Kansas State, Department of Agronomy

www.agronomy.k-state.edu

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Weather Service - Central Region

www.crh.noaa.gov/crh

National Climatic Data Center

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Missouri River Basin Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

National Drought Mitigation Center

www.drought.unl.edu

National Integrated Drought Information

System (NIDIS)

www.drought.gov

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

South Dakota State University Extension

http://igrow.org

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - Missouri River Basin 

Water Management Division

www.usace.army.mil

U.S. Department of Agriculture

www.usda.gov

NRCS National Water & Climate Center

www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov

Regional Climate Hubs

www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/regional_hubs.htm

U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area

www.usgs.gov/water

Western Governors’ Association

www.westgov.org

3-Month Precipitation and 

Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought 

Outlook 

El Niño conditions have developed and are 

expected to continue through the summer. 

Current El Niño conditions are weak and 

impacts in the spring and summer are limited 

during these seasons in the Basin states.

Over the next three months, outlooks 

indicate increased chances for above normal 

temperatures for northern parts of the region 

including Montana, North Dakota, northern 

South Dakota, and much of Wyoming. There 

are increased chances for above normal 

precipitation across Colorado and southern 

Wyoming, while portions of the Dakotas 

have an increased chance for below normal 

precipitation.

Drought conditions expanded in some areas 

of the region this winter. This is unusual as 

drought developments/improvements do not 

typically occur in winter across this region. 

The combination of extreme warmth and a 

low snow water content in the mountains 

led to the development of moderate drought 

conditions across western Colorado into 

southern Wyoming. Moderate drought 

conditions also expanded in eastern North 

Dakota. The seasonal outlook indicates that 

drought development is likely in the Dakotas, 

while improvements are expected in eastern 

Colorado and portions of Kansas through June.

Valid for April - June 2015 Valid for 03/19/2015 - 06/30/2015

Above: (Top) Winter wheat with Hessian fly infestation, courtesy 

K-State Research and Extension and (Bottom) an example of the 

destruction from a pine beetle infestation, courtesy the archives of 

the North Central Climate Science Center.

Recreation and Tourism

The low snowpack in parts of eastern North Dakota had a negative impact on 

outdoor recreation, especially for snowmobilers. Even in the better snowmobiling 

locations in western Minnesota, it has been a poor season.

EC: Equal chances of above, near or below normal

A: Above normal, B: Below normal

Precipitation Temperature

Agriculture

According to K-State Research and Extension, Hessian flies have been detected in a 

winter wheat field in southeastern Kansas. The warm fall weather may have led to 

multiple broods. Hessian fly infestations can cause weak stems, which can lead to 

partially filled heads or broken stems. 

Dry soils and a low snowpack in South Dakota and eastern North Dakota could be 

beneficial to farmers this spring. In recent years, farmers have had trouble getting 

into fields due to muddy conditions. Additionally, the dry conditions reduce flood 

risk in these areas.

Forestry

According to a study by the U.S. Forest Service and Colorado State Forest Survey, 

the spruce beetle epidemic has expanded in Colorado due to a number of factors, 

including drought. The most rapid expansion of the infestation has occurred in 

southwestern areas of the state. For more information see: 

http://csfs.colostate.edu/districts/boulder-district/boulder-insects-diseases/

Drought Impacts Continue

For much of the Missouri River Basin states, drought conditions have eased or 

been eliminated over the past year; however drought impacts are still being 

realized. According to the USDA, over $2.7 billion in Livestock Forage Disaster 

Assistance payments have been paid, which retroactively covers 2012 and 2013, 

in addition to 2014. Kansas producers received payments of $461.26 million, while 

Nebraska producers received payments of $512.89 million.