Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| December 2015 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Missouri River Basin 

December 2015 

National - Significant Events for September - November 2015

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Late Hard Freeze

Regional - Climate Overview for September - November 2015

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

November 2015

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

September 1 - November 30, 2015

Date of First Hard Freeze (28°F)

Fall 2015

Highlights for the Basin

Every state in the Basin ranked in the top 10 

warmest falls on record with Colorado, Nebraska, 

North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming having 

their second warmest fall on record. Other top 

10 rankings included Iowa (3rd), Kansas (4th), 

Missouri (5th), and Montana (7th).

Minimum temperatures were especially warm 

this fall, with Colorado, Nebraska, and North 

Dakota setting new records for warmest fall 

minimum temperatures on record.

October 11th was a particularly hot day across 

the region, with many locations setting new 

records for warmest October temperature. For 

instance, Fargo, ND had a high temperature of 

97°F that day, which beat the previous October 

record by an impressive 4°F. Interestingly, this was 

also the warmest day of the year in Fargo, beating 

out all other high temperatures over the summer. 

A late season tornado outbreak on November 

16th spawned 21 confirmed tornadoes in 

Kansas. One tornado was particularly strong and, 

according to the Kansas Weather Data Library, 

was the strongest and widest tornado to ever be 

recorded during November in the state.

An extended warm period this fall caused 

many locations across the Basin to have some 

of the latest hard freezes on record. A hard 

freeze is marked by a minimum temperature 

at or below 28°F and is sometimes referred 

to as a “killing freeze.” Some locations did not 

reach 28°F until a month after the average first 

hard freeze. One impressive record occurred in 

Fort Collins, CO, which had its first hard freeze 

of the season on November 7th - beating the 

old record by nearly a week (period of record 

1893-present). 

Generally, the fall started dry, with many 

locations receiving less than 50 percent of 

normal precipitation, and ended wet, with 

widespread totals in excess of 150 percent 

of normal. As much of the region moves into 

the driest time of the year, the above-normal 

precipitation did not overcome all the deficits 

that accumulated earlier in the fall, especially 

in places like central Kansas. Additionally, some 

areas of the region consistently missed out on 

precipitation, such as northeastern Wyoming 

through portions of the Dakotas.

It was an extremely warm fall for the 

Missouri River Basin states as above-normal 

temperatures were a prominent feature each 

of the three months of the season. Overall, 

the majority of the region had seasonal 

temperature departures ranging from 2-6°F 

above normal, with the largest departures 

occurring across the Dakotas and Minnesota 

where some locations had temperature 

departures in excess of 6°F. Not only were 

these the largest departures for the region, but 

also for the entire contiguous U.S.

The average U.S. temperature during November was 44.7°F, 3.0°F above average. The autumn 

U.S. temperature was 56.2°F, 3.3°F above average, and the warmest on record. November U.S. 

precipitation was 3.30 inches, 1.07 inches above average, and the fourth wettest on record. The 

autumn U.S. precipitation was 8.32 inches, 1.44 inches above average.

Please Note: Material provided in this map was compiled from NOAA’s State of the Climate Reports. 

For more information please visit: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
Regional - Impacts for September - November 2015

Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| December 2015

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for January - March 2016 MO River Basin Partners

:#regionalclimateoutlooks

High Plains Regional Climate Center

www.hprcc.unl.edu

National Drought Mitigation Center

www.drought.unl.edu

National Integrated Drought Information System

www.drought.gov

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Weather Service - Central Region

www.crh.noaa.gov/crh

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Missouri River Basin Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

North Central Climate Science Center

http://revampclimate.colostate.edu

South Dakota State University Extension

http://igrow.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - Missouri River Basin 

Water Management Division

www.usace.army.mil

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

www.usbr.gov

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Natural Resources Conservation Service

www.nrcs.usda.gov

NRCS National Water & Climate Center

www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov

Regional Climate Hubs

www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/regional_hubs.htm

U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area

www.usgs.gov/water

Western Governors’ Association

www.westgov.org

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center, El Niño conditions continued this fall and are 

expected to remain strong through the winter. These conditions are forecast to continue into the 

spring with a transition to neutral conditions in the late spring or early summer.

As El Niño impacts typically peak in the mid to late winter, the outlooks through March are 

important. Over the next three months, the outlooks favor increased chances for above-normal 

temperatures for much of the Basin. Consistent with previous outlooks and the typical El Niño 

pattern, the highest probabilities for above-normal temperatures are located across the northern 

tier of the region, including portions of Montana and North Dakota. Meanwhile, the precipitation 

outlook shows increased chances for below-normal precipitation for upper parts of the Basin, in 

areas of Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas, and above-normal precipitation for most of the 

central and southern parts of the Basin, including much of Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. This 

potential precipitation pattern could result in an above-normal snowpack in southern portions of 

the Rockies and a below-normal snowpack in the headwaters of the Missouri River.

For more information about potential impacts this winter, please see this report on El Niño in 

the Missouri River Basin: http://www.drought.gov/media/pgfiles/ENSO-MOBasin-2015-Final.pdf

Valid for January - March 2016

Above: (Left) Asters blooming at Lauritzen Gardens in Omaha, NE, courtesy Natalie Umphlett; (Center) Canada geese in Lincoln, NE on a snowy day, courtesy Ken 

Dewey; and (Right) open water on Rainy Lake at the beginning of December, located on the Minnesota/Canada border, courtesy Laura Edwards.

EC: Equal chances of above, near or below normal, A: Above normal, B: Below normal

Precipitation Temperature

Late Freezes Extended Growing Season

A late end to the growing season had varied impacts across the Basin. 

On one hand, late season freezes led to a delay in the killing of insects 

and extended the pollen season. But, on the other hand, the growing 

season was extended for gardens, flowers, and trees. In areas with 

these late freezes, gardeners were able to harvest vegetables well into 

November. Additionally, flowers were spotted late in the season in 

places like Lincoln, NE where daylilies were blooming in mid-November.

Monitoring Water Resources Across the Basin

According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2015 runoff for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City is forecast to be right at the average of 

25.3 million acre feet. At this time, snowpack in the upper portions of the Basin is on the lower side and outlooks indicate a continuation of dry 

conditions through the early spring. To the south, high flows this season due to heavy precipitation in Colorado have reservoirs running high in the 

Platte River Basin. For instance, at the end of September, the inflows into Lake McConaughy in Nebraska ranked as the 11th highest on record since 

1941. With the possibility of a higher than average snowpack in Colorado, as described below, winter snowpack and the subsequent spring runoff 

will need to be monitored as there will be a potential for lowland flooding next spring.

Warm Fall Delays Bird Migrations

Bird migrations were delayed this fall due to warm conditions. The 

warm fall provided plenty of food and open water for the birds, making 

it possible for them to stay in their northern locations. This impacted 

outdoor recreation as some birds arrived rather late in their respective 

hunting seasons. For instance, local reports indicated that the Sandhill 

Crane migration was delayed and appreciable numbers did not arrive in 

North Dakota until the very week the crane hunting season closed.