Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| September 2015 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Missouri River Basin 

September 2015 

National - Significant Events for June - August 2015

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Streamflow

Regional - Climate Overview for June - August 2015

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

June 1 - August 31, 2015

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

June 1 - August 31, 2015

Missouri Basin Monthly Average Streamflow

August 2015

Highlights for the Basin

Although average temperatures were generally 

within a couple degrees of normal this summer, 

record warm minimums were a common 

occurrence in the region. For instance, in 

Cheyenne, WY, minimum temperatures in June 

never dipped below normal and ranked as the 2nd 

warmest on record.

It was an extremely wet summer for Missouri, 

which had its 5th wettest summer on record. June 

was 10th wettest and July was 4th wettest for the 

state. Numerous impacts resulted from the wet 

conditions.

Heavy rainfall events continued to cause localized 

flash flooding in some locations. One example was 

Sioux Falls, SD, which received 6-8 inches of rain 

on the south side of the town during the evening 

of August 27th. 

Due to the wet spring and summer, many 

locations have already surpassed their average 

annual precipitation totals, including Pueblo, 

CO, Lincoln, NE, and Rapid City, SD. With records 

going back to 1948, 2015 already ranks as the 4th 

wettest year on record for Rapid City.

According to data from the U.S. Geological 

Survey, both high and low streamflows 

occurred throughout the summer across the 

Basin. High streamflows were common all 

summer in the Black Hills of South Dakota, 

much of the early summer in areas of the 

Front Range in Colorado, and later in the 

summer along portions of the Missouri River 

in Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri. 

Below normal streamflows continued along 

the Republican River in Nebraska and also 

north-central Kansas.

Precipitation varied across the region this 

summer. Generally, rains were lacking in upper 

parts of the basin, such as Montana, where 

drought conditions expanded and intensified. 

Meanwhile, central and lower parts of the 

basin, including Missouri, eastern Nebraska, 

and much of South Dakota, received at least 

130% of normal precipitation. The last drought 

areas in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, and South 

Dakota were all eliminated by this summer’s 

rainfall. In the areas of heaviest precipitation, 

flooding in urban and rural areas occurred.

Summer was, overall, near normal across the 

region with average temperature departures 

that were within a few degrees of normal. 

The summer started off quite warm, with 

above normal temperatures for much of the 

basin, especially in the west. In contrast, July 

temperatures were on the cool side with 

below normal temperatures through much of 

Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Missouri. 

August temperatures were also largely below 

normal with areas of Kansas, Missouri, and 

Nebraska recording the largest departures.

The average U.S. temperature during August was 73.0°F, 0.9°F above average. The summer U.S. 

temperature was 72.7°F, 1.3°F above average. August U.S. precipitation was 2.36 inches, 0.26 inch 

below average. The summer U.S. precipitation was 9.14 inches, 0.82 inch above average.

Please Note: Material provided in this map was compiled from NOAA’s State of the Climate Reports. 

For more information please visit: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
Regional - Impacts for June - August 2015

Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| September 2015

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for October - December 2015 MO River Basin Partners

:#regionalclimateoutlooks

High Plains Regional Climate Center

www.hprcc.unl.edu

Kansas State, Department of Agronomy

www.agronomy.k-state.edu

National Drought Mitigation Center

www.drought.unl.edu

National Integrated Drought Information System

www.drought.gov

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Weather Service - Central Region

www.crh.noaa.gov/crh

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Missouri River Basin Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

South Dakota State University Extension

http://igrow.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - Missouri River Basin 

Water Management Division

www.usace.army.mil

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

www.usbr.gov

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Natural Resources Conservation Service

www.nrcs.usda.gov

NRCS National Water & Climate Center

www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov

Regional Climate Hubs

www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/regional_hubs.htm

U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area

www.usgs.gov/water

Western Governors’ Association

www.westgov.org

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center, El Niño conditions continued this summer and will 

continue at least through the end of winter. This El Niño is expected to peak as a strong event 

later this fall and then slowly weaken through the winter and spring. There is a possibility that 

this event will be the strongest since records began in 1950.

Over the next three months, the outlooks favor increased chances for above-normal 

temperatures for northern parts of the region, such as Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, 

and northern Wyoming. Meanwhile, the precipitation outlook shows increased chances for 

below-normal precipitation for upper parts of the basin, in areas of Montana and Wyoming, and 

above-normal precipitation for most of the central and southern parts of the basin, including 

Colorado, Kansas, much of Missouri, southeastern Wyoming, and the majority of Nebraska. 

Although not an issue at this time, above-normal precipitation later this fall could impact the 

harvest season if fields are wet and crops cannot dry down properly.

For more information about the El Niño and potential impacts this winter, please see the special 

report on El Niño in the Missouri River Basin here: 

http://www.drought.gov/media/pgfiles/ENSO-MOBasin-2015-Final.pdf

Valid for October - December 2015

Above: (Top) Flooding in Cape Girardeau, MO, courtesy The Washington Post; 

(Center) winter wheat field with Fusarium head blight in South Dakota, courtesy 

SDSU Extension; and (Bottom) smoke over the skyline of Lincoln, NE, courtesy Ken 

Dewey.

EC: Equal chances of above, near or below normal, A: Above normal, B: Below normal

Precipitation Temperature

Heavy Rains Continued

Heavy rains this year have continued to impact a variety of sectors 

in the region, from ecosystems and agriculture to water resources 

and utilities. On a broad scale, revenues were down for many local 

utilities along the Front Range due to the excessive and abundant water 

supplies. In Kansas, water even flowed in parts of the Arkansas River 

that have not seen water in several years. With the wet conditions 

this year, there are some initial indications that bird populations in the 

region are showing increases in population numbers as well.

Persistent Smoke from Wildfires

Smoke from wildfires in Alaska, Canada, and the Pacific Northwest made its way to the central U.S. many times this summer. The persistent smoke 

created hazy skies, which reduced daytime high temperatures and increased nighttime low temperatures. Many people noted that the hazy skies 

led to beautiful sunrises and sunsets, but also obscured the mountain views in areas of the Rockies and Black Hills. On a serious note, some days 

there was enough smoke to impact air quality and create health issues for sensitive groups. Additionally, the haze reduced the incoming solar 

radiation, which is important for crop development; however, it does not appear to have had an impact on crops at this time.

Positive and Negative Impacts to Agriculture

Favorable growing season conditions for certain crops occurred 

in central and northern areas of the region where record corn and 

soybean yields are expected in Nebraska and South Dakota, and 

record hard spring wheat yields are forecast in North Dakota. But, wet 

conditions were problematic to other crops. Several winter wheat 

diseases were reported in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota, and 

a rare disease, flag smut, was found in Kansas for the first time in 80 

years. Agriculture, horticulture, and the timber industry in Missouri 

were also greatly impacted by wet conditions. For more detailed 

information see: http://extension.missouri.edu/2015weather