Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Great Lakes Region

June 2017

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - June 2017 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

At the end of May, Lake Ontario’s water level was 82 

cm (32 in) above average, which is the highest it’s been 

since records began in 1918. The high water levels led to 

widespread flooding and erosion along the Lake Ontario 

shoreline. Lake Erie was also close to reaching its alltime high water level. All the other lakes were at least 

22 cm (8.7 in) above average and all were higher than 

they have been since at least 1998. 

The high water levels this spring were primarily driven 

by very wet conditions across the basin in April and 

May. In the Lake Ontario basin, over 4 trillion gallons of 

rainwater flowed into the lake during this time and the 

basin had its wettest May since 1900. Rochester and 

Buffalo (NY) had their second wettest spring on record 

and many locations across Ontario received record 

precipitation for April through May.

Following an unseasonably warm February, many 

locations across the basin continued to experience this 

warmth through much of March and April, leading to 

early dormancy break in some vegetation well before average last freeze dates. May brought cooler weather across the basin, including freezing 

temperatures on May 7-10 that resulted in damage to vulnerable vegetation.

A powerful and destructive wind event blew across the basin in early March. In Rochester (NY), a wind gust of 130 kph (81 mph) was recorded, 

which was the 2nd strongest wind gust on record at that site. The high winds also affected locations in Ontario and Michigan, and resulted in 

widespread power outages and other impacts like pushing a plane off the runway in Ypsilanti (MI) and derailing 12 train cars in Batavia (NY).

 Great Lakes Significant Events - for March - May 2017

Precipitation

Regional Climate Overview - for March - May 2017

Water level statistics based on 1918-2016.

Temperature

Following a wet winter, the Great 

Lakes basin received 126% of average 

precipitation during spring, with all 

lake basins wetter than average. In 

fact, all lake basins received near- to 

above-average precipitation during 

each month of the spring season, 

with the Lake Ontario basin having its 

wettest May since 1900. The overall 

basin received 103% of average 

precipitation in March, 152% in April, 

and 120% of average in May.

Precipitation normals based on 1981-2010.

March-May 2017 Precipitation: 

Percent of Normal (%)

Great Lakes Water Levels

Air temperature 

normals based on 

1981-2010.

Lake

End of May 2017 

Compared to:

Change since 

March 1st

Average Last Year 2017 Average

Superior +22 cm 

(+8.7 in)

+9 cm 

(+3.5 in)

+21 cm 

(+8.3 n)

+17 cm 

(+6.7 in)

MichiganHuron+34 cm 

(+13.4 in)

+2 cm 

(+0.8 in)

+33 cm 

(+13 in)

+24 cm 

(+9.4 in)

Erie +54 cm 

(+21.3 in)

+21 cm 

(+8.3 in)

+44 cm 

(+17.3 in)

+31 cm 

(+12.2 in)

Ontario +82 cm 

(+32.3 in)

+83 cm 

(+32.7 in)

+95 cm 

(+37.4 in)

+43 cm 

(+16.9 in)

April 2017 (left) and May 2017 (right) 

Air temperature: Departure from Normal

Air Temperature: Spring temperatures ranged from 1°C (2°F) below 

normal in the Superior basin to 2°C (4°F) above normal in the Erie 

basin. March temperatures ranged from 3°C (5°F) below normal to 

1°C (2°F) above normal, with the coldest areas in the Ontario basin. 

April temperatures ranged from near normal in the Superior basin to 

4°C (7°F) above normal in the Erie basin. May temperatures ranged 

from 3°C (5°F) below normal to near normal.

Water Temperature: Surface water temperatures on all Great Lakes 

were around 1°C (1.8°F) above the long-term 1992-2016 average 

(LTA) in early March. Water temperatures increased as expected in the spring 

season. However, a noticeable decrease in late May resulted in temperatures 

that were just slightly above the LTA at the end of the season.
Regional Impacts - for March - May 2017

Regional Outlook - for July - September 2017 Great Lakes Region Partners

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)

www.ec.gc.ca

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

www.agr.gc.ca 

Midwestern Regional Climate Center

mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Great Lakes Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

www.glerl.noaa.gov

NOAA Great Lakes Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

North Central River Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc

Ohio River Forecast Center

www.weather.gov/ohrfc 

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Office for Coastal Management

http://coast.noaa.gov/

Great Lakes Integrated Sciences & Assessments

www.glisa.umich.edu

US Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District

www.lre.usace.army.mil

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

USDA Midwest Climate Hub

https://www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/midwest

Contact for NOAA: 

Molly Woloszyn: mollyw@illinois.edu

Samantha Borisoff: samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu

Contact for ECCC: ec.enviroinfo.ec@canada.ca

Archive: goo.gl/3WA5QZ 

Contact Information

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - June 2017 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) are 

predicting greater chances for above-normal temperatures across the entire Great Lakes basin 

for the July through September period. On the other hand, the CPC and ECCC do not have a 

clear signal on whether precipitation will be above-, near-, or below-normal for July through 

September. The current monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found through CPC and ECCC. 

Coastal Flooding & Erosion

High water levels on the Great Lakes and 

adjacent lakes and streams, combined with 

the frequent bouts of heavy precipitation, 

caused significant flooding and erosion 

damage around the Great Lakes, particularly 

Lake Ontario. Clean-up costs and infrastructure 

damages in Hamilton (ON) totaled over $2.5 

million. In New York and Ontario, residents 

were evacuated and over one million sandbags 

were used to protect shoreline property and 

infrastructure from rising waters and coastal 

flooding. A main road to Sodus Point (NY) was inaccessible for several 

weeks. However, the community’s effort to remove water on that and 

other roads via water pumps, discharge intake sealing, and sandbagging 

was relatively successful. The inundation of 

roads became manageable and businesses 

were able to remain open. In some places, 

high winds amplified flooding and erosion 

issues. The high water levels significantly 

reduced beach access around Lake Ontario 

and submerged docks and launches at 

marinas, which will continue to impact 

tourism and recreation this summer.

Agriculture

The excess moisture, cold May temperatures, and flooding delayed 

seeding and emergence in Ontario, New York, Michigan, and Ohio, 

forcing some producers to switch from early to late season crops. In 

addition, many farmers dealt with flooding in fields. As a result of 

the early May freeze, apple growers in eastern Michigan reported a 

significant amount of crop loss with some reporting up to 80% loss.

Water Quality

The heavy rainfall events and high water levels forced the release of 

untreated water into Lake Ontario in order to mitigate flooding. There 

were reports in early May that the Toronto Harbour had E. Coli levels that 

were 16 to 30 times the safe amount for human contact or boating. 

Navigation 

Due to the high water levels, the Lake Ontario St. Lawrence River Board 

increased outflows from Lake Ontario to help alleviate flooding in this 

region, which created higher velocities in the shipping channels and 

increased the need for safety precautions by shipping.

Societal

The powerful wind event in early March produced significant impacts 

across the basin, including widespread power outages. In southeast 

Michigan, one million people lost power after 4,000 power lines were 

pulled down by falling trees. In addition, Monroe County (NY) 911 had its 

highest call volume since the 1991 ice storm.

Water Levels

Temperature & Precipitation

Harmful Algal Blooms

Potential range for water levels for July-Sept 2017 compared to the long-term average (1918-2016). 

The harmful algal bloom (HAB) season in the Great Lakes peaks annually 

in late summer. The severity of HABs are dependent on phosphorus and 

nitrogen outputs from March 1-July 31 (the “loading season”). Conditions 

can change quickly, so a Lake Erie HAB bulletin is updated twice a week

and the Lake Erie Experimental HAB Tracker is also updated frequently. On 

July 13, NOAA will officially announce the predicted western Lake Erie HAB 

season outlook for 2017. Resource and public health managers can use 

these outlooks to plan for toxic blooms this summer, which could affect 

human and animal health.

Erosion in Lyndonville, NY 

(Photo: Alicia Bonanza)

Lake Erie HAB in July 

2015 (Ohio Sea Grant)

Typically, water levels in all the Great Lakes peak 

in the summer months before beginning to decline 

in late summer as water supplies to the lakes tend 

to decrease. However due to high water levels 

in lakes Erie and Ontario at the end of May, both 

of these lakes may have peaked for the year and 

are expected to decline assuming average water 

supply conditions for the summer. Lakes Superior 

and Michigan-Huron are expected to more closely 

follow the typical seasonal pattern. All lakes are 

estimated to stay well-above average levels through 

the summer, even if dry conditions occur.

Oswego County, NY on 5/15/17 

(Photo: Cathy Goodnough)