Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Great Lakes Region

September 2016

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - September 2016 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

 Great Lakes Significant Events - for June - August 2016

Precipitation

Regional Climate Overview - for June - August 2016

The Great Lakes basin experienced a wide range of extreme 

weather this summer. Temperatures in the basin this summer 

were above normal, with the greatest departures from normal 

occurring in August. Summer 2016 was within the top 5 

warmest for Rochester (NY), Buffalo (NY), and Erie (PA) (records 

began in the 1870s). High minimum temperatures were a large 

contributor to the warmth this summer. Ohio’s summer minimum 

temperatures were the warmest on record since records began 

in 1895. 

Precipitation varied from drier-than-normal in the eastern Great 

Lakes to wetter-than-normal in the western Great Lakes. The dry 

conditions, which were predominant in the early summer, led to 

drought development in New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, 

and portions of Ontario. On the other hand, Thunder Bay, Ontario 

recorded 219.5 mm (8.64 in) in June, making this their wettest 

June on record since records began in 1877.

Strong thunderstorms in mid-July caused significant flash 

flooding in areas west of Lake Superior in Minnesota and 

Wisconsin. Rainfall amounts totaled 102 to 254 mm (4 to 10 inches) in a 24-hour period, with much actually falling within an 8-hour period. 

Gurney, Wisconsin recorded 245 mm (9.65 in) on the morning of July 12, making it their highest one-day precipitation total on record since 

records began in 1952. 

A tornado outbreak on August 24 caused substantial damage in portions of Indiana, southwest Ontario, and northwest Ohio, which is unusual 

for this time of year. The 25-year average for August tornadoes in Indiana and Ohio is only two, but these states had over 21 combined on 

August 24. In fact, the 21 tornadoes reported in Indiana and Ohio ranks in the top 10 list for the largest number of tornadoes in a single August 

day across the U.S. (since 1950).

Air Temperature: June temperatures ranged from 1°C (2°F) below normal to 2°C (4°F) above normal, while July 

temperatures ranged from near normal to 3°C (5°F) above normal. The entire region was warmer than normal 

in August, with temperatures ranging from 1°C (2°F) to 5°C (9°F) above normal. New York and Pennsylvania 

were record warm, while Ohio had its 3rd warmest August. The eastern Canadian basin observed August mean 

temperatures that were extremely above normal (90th-98th percentile). Summer temperatures ranged from 

near normal to 3°C (5°F) above normal.

Water Temperature: All Great Lakes surface water temperatures were above the long-term average for June, 

July, and August. Some temperatures were as much as 3.5°C (6.3°F) above average for the period.

Water level statistics based on 1918-2015. 

June-Aug 2016: Dep. from Normal

Temperature

June was dry for all lake basins except Superior, with the Great Lakes basin 

receiving 83% of normal precipitation. The July storm track brought near- to 

above-normal precipitation to the upper lakes, while the lower lakes had belownormal precipitation. The overall basin received 91% of normal in July. In August, 

all lakes received above-normal precipitation, with the overall basin receiving 

138% of normal. Summer averaged out to be drier than normal for Lake Ontario, 

wetter than normal for Lake Superior, and near normal for the other lake basins. 

Overall, the Great Lakes basin received 104% of normal summer precipitation.

June and August 2016 graphics are shown to display the range in precipitation this summer. 

Precipitation normals based on 1981-2010.

June (A) and August (B) Precipitation: Percent of Normal (%)

Great Lakes Water Levels

With the exception of Lake Superior, all lakes generally experienced dry conditions during the past three months, yet levels on all but Lake 

Ontario remained above average throughout the quarter. At the end of August, Lake Superior was 16 cm (6.3 in) above average, Lake MichiganHuron was 28 cm (11.0 in) above average, and Lake Erie was 24 cm (9.45 in) above normal. The past three months were especially dry on Lake 

Ontario, and it finished the quarter 2 cm (0.8 in) below average, 20 cm lower than last year.

A B

Air temperature normals based on 1981-2010. Water temperature long-term average is 1995-2015.
Regional Impacts - for June - August 2016

Regional Outlook - for October - December 2016 Great Lakes Region Partners

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)

www.ec.gc.ca

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

www.agr.gc.ca 

Midwestern Regional Climate Center

mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Great Lakes Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncei.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

www.glerl.noaa.gov

NOAA Great Lakes Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

North Central River Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc

Ohio River Forecast Center

www.weather.gov/ohrfc 

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Office for Coastal Management

http://coast.noaa.gov/

Great Lakes Integrated Sciences & Assessments

www.glisa.umich.edu

US Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District

www.lre.usace.army.mil

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

Contact for NOAA: 

Molly Woloszyn: mollyw@illinois.edu

Samantha Borisoff: samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu

Contact for ECCC: 

greatlakes-grandslacs@canada.ca

enviroinfo@canada.ca

Contact Information

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - September 2016 - 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/pubs/pubsGreatLakes.jsp

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

The October-December 2016 period is 

forecasted to have a greater chance of 

above-normal temperatures for both the 

U.S. and Canadian Great Lakes basins by 

the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and 

Environment and Climate Change Canada 

(ECCC). On the other hand, there is no clear 

signal on whether precipitation will be 

above, near, or below normal. The current 

monthly and seasonal outlooks can be 

found through CPC and ECCC.

Currently, CPC is forecasting neutral 

conditions for the El Niño Southern 

Oscillation (ENSO) this fall and winter 

2016/17, meaning that ENSO will not likely 

have a strong influence on North American 

weather in the coming months.

Drought

After persistent dry 

conditions, drought 

developed in the eastern 

Great Lakes basin. 

Several counties in 

New York experienced 

extreme drought 

conditions for the first time since at least 2000, 

when the U.S. Drought Monitor data began. 

Agriculture

The yields of corn, soybeans, and hay are expected to be lower than 

average in some drought areas. Dried up pastures forced farmers in 

New York to supplement with feed, which is usually saved for the 

winter. Despite the drought conditions in New York, grape growers 

indicated berries were ripening faster than usual and may be smaller 

in size, but higher quality. Areas to the west that were wetter are 

expecting above-average yields this summer. 

Seasonal growing degree day accumulations were above average for 

much of the basin. This may reduce the risk for fall freeze damage 

since crops may reach maturity before the first killing freeze. 

Water Resources

As a result of drought conditions, streamflow and groundwater levels 

were at record or near-record low levels in parts of New York, with 

some private wells going dry. In late July, Ithaca, New York’s water 

supply was critically low, with an estimated 30 days of water left 

without significant rain or reduction in use. 

Transportation & Infrastructure

The mid-July flash flooding around 

western Lake Superior resulted in 

many road closures, including major 

interstates. In Lake Superior, numerous 

vessels were affected by downburst 

winds. Six vessels became adrift and 

some were overturned. Preliminary 

damage estimates for eight Wisconsin 

counties totaled over $28 million to 

public infrastructure.

Hot and dry weather and aging 

infrastructure led to a dozen water main breaks in the Buffalo, New 

York area in July.

Water Quality

The size of the western Lake Erie harmful algal bloom is smaller 

this year due to developing and persistent drought conditions in the 

region. However, NOAA scientists have found that toxic algae is still 

forming as bloom toxin concentrations are significantly higher than last 

year. The drivers behind changes in toxicity are still under investigation 

and areas of algal scum could still present risk and should be avoided. 

Water Levels

All of the Great Lakes typically begin or continue 

their seasonal decline at this time of the year, 

as lake evaporation rates are at their highest 

due in large part to declining air temperatures 

and relatively warm lake water. Water levels 

are expected to remain above average for lakes 

Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie unless 

exceedingly dry conditions are experienced. Lake 

Ontario water levels are expected to remain near 

average unless exceedingly wet or dry conditions 

are experienced.

Temperature & 

Precipitation

Highway near Highbridge, WI (Photo: 

NWS Duluth/Tracy Packingham)

Drought

Potential range for water levels for Oct-Dec 2016 compared to the long-term average (1918-2015). 

For the 

U.S. Great 

Lakes basin 

(pictured), 

drought is 

expected 

to persist in 

New York 

into the 

OctoberDecember 

2016 period. 

In Ohio, 

drought removal is likely. Agriculture and AgriFood Canada expects that drought conditions 

will also continue in the Canadian Great Lakes 

basin into the October-December 2016 period 

(not pictured). 

North American Drought 

Monitor as of 8/31/16 

(www.drought.gov)

Valid for Sept. 15-Dec. 31, 2016 

(Source: NOAA CPC)