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### 1982 SAY AREA AIR QUALITY PLAM

Prepared by

Association of Bay Area 6overments Bay Area Air Quality Nanagewent District Ifetropolitan Transportation CoRSission

Ftotel Claremont, Berkeley, California 94705

December 1982

## <

rn

, 

## TABLE OF CONTENTS -

PAGE

A

List of Figures .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv



### Li st of Tables

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v1

~



### SECTION I. SU!l1ARY OF THE PLAl1 .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1



## REYIEW OF T}E 1979 BAY AREA AIR QUALITY PLAN.

.......... 1

PRESENT AND PROJECTED AIR QUALITY PROBLEMS. . . . . . . .

. . . . 1

,

PROPOSED CONTROL PROGRANS .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

BENEFITS AND COSTS OF THE PLAtf .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9



### IMPLEIIENTAT ION SCHEDULE

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

ANMIAL AIR QUALITY REPORTS .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

SECTION II. BACKfR0UN4 OF THE PLAN .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

-



## OZONE

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

,

CARBUN IMXIDE .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 r 

### '

~



## TOTAL SUSPENOED PARTICULATES . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

ANltUAL REPORT FOR 1980 .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30



### I NST I TUT I ONAl. ORGAJI I ZAT I ON FOR PLAM PRf PARAT I ON ......... 31 =

TNE 1982 PWf REYISION .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33



### EPA R£QUIREIENTS FOR 1982 SIP RfYISI01tS . . . . . . . . .

. . . . 33

REVIEY OF EXISTIN6 COlITROL PROGRAFLS . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . 35

SFCTI011 III. PRESENT /4!O PR4,lECTED EMISSIONS, AIR QUALITY AJD



## EMISSION REDUCTION TAR6ETS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 I

PRESENT AIR QUALITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

~



### PRfSENT A1b PROJECTfD E1IISSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

1979 A!D 1987 Bt SELINE OZONE SIlULATI01tS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

~



## LIRAQ OZOI'E SFXSITIYITY AKALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 ~

PRESENT AMD PRUrJECTED CO PROBLEMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

1

## PAGE

SECTION IV. OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . 94

MOTOR VEHICLE INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94

STATIONARY SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

TRANSPORTATION CONTROL MEASURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102



## ; ADMINISTRATIVE PROGRAMS FOR LONG-TERM MAINTENANCE . . . . . . . . 108

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110



### ~ 

## SECTION V. CARBON MONOXIDE CONTROL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT. ...... 118

ALTERNATIVE CONTROL MEASURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 m



## CONTROL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120

RECOMMENDED CARBON MONOXIDE CONTROL STRATEGY. . . . . . . . . . . 132

. SECTION VI. THE BENEFITS OF CLEANER AIR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140

OZONE ..............................140

CARBON MONOXIDE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143



## EFFECTS AND COSTS OF MULTIPLE POLLUTANTS . . . . . . . . . . . . 144

CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145

r 

### SECTION VII. FUTURE ACTIVITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146

POTENTIAL TRENDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146

TRAVEL MONITORING SYSTEM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 e

ANNUAL AIR QUALITY REPORTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152



## APPENDIX A STATIONARY SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES

APPENOIX B TRANSPORTATION CONTROL MEASURES



## APPENDIX C ADDITIONAL MEASURES RECOMMENDED BY THE JOINT A'IR QUALITY

PLANNING AND ADVISORY COMMITTEE FOR CONSIDERATION IN THE
DRAFT 1982 PLAN

ii

## APPENDIX D CONTROL MEASURES CONSIDERED NOT REASONABLY AVAILABLE

APPENDIX E EMISSION INVENTORIES, 1979-2000

APPENDIX F AMENDMENT TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT REPORT ON THE SAN

FRANCISCO BAY AREA ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PLAN

APPENDIX G DIRECT A!JD INDIRECT EMISSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR FEDERAL

ACTIONS, 1982-1987

APPENDIX H TRANSPORTATION CONFORMITY ASSESSMENT PROCEDURES AND

CONTINGENCY PLAN

APPENDIX I IMPLEMENTATION COMMITMENTS

APPENDIX J SUMMARY OF PUBLIC COMMENTS

APPENDIX K CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD NEW VEHICLE STANDARDS SUMIARY

t~

y M

~



## LIST OF FIGURES '

PAGE

Figure 1. Schedule of Hydrocarbon Emission Reductions

Proposed to Achieve the Federal Ozone Standard

in the San Francisco Bay Area

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Figure 2. Air Quality Planning Boundary, San Francisco



### B ay Area

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Figure 3. 1979 Expected Annual Exceedances of Federal

Ozone Standard in days per year with maximum hourly ozone concentration exceeding 0.12 ppm,

based on 3-year average (1977-1979)

. . . . . . . . . . . 49



### Figure 4. 1969 Expected Annual Exceedances of Federal

Ozone Standard in days per year with maximum hourly ozone concentration exceeding 0.12 ppm,

based on 3-year average (1967-1969)

. . . . . . . . . . . 49 v

Figure 5. Ozone Trends, 1965-1981

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51



### Figure 6. Baseline Emission Inventory Projections,

.

1975-2000 for Reactive Organics (Hydrocarbons),
Oxides of Nitrogen, and Carbon Monoxide

. . . . . . . . . 54

Figure 7. Spatial Distribution of Biogenic Hydrocarbon

-

Emissions

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61



### Figure 8. LIRAQ-Generated Mean Ozone Concentration from

3 pm t o 4 pm P S T

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69



### Figure 9. Projected 1987 Baseline Maximum Ozone

Concentrations Under Existing Control Programs

Based on LIRAQ Tests

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

Figure 10. Ozone Level Versus Total Hydrocarbons Normalized

..

to 1979 Baseline, Based on LIRAQ Tests

......... 78

Figure 11. Bay Area Carbon Monoxide (CO) Hnt Spot Locations

.... 81

Figure 12. San Jose Study Area and Monitoring Site

......... 82

Figure 13. Oakland Monitoring Site

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

Figure 14. Spatial Variation of Carbon Monoxide in an

Urban Setting

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

Figure 15. 1987 Baseline CO Concentrations in Downtown

San Jose

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

iv~

a

~



### PAGE

Figure 16. Transit Mall and San Antonio Plaza Site in

Relation to Downtown San Jose

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

Figure 17. Schedule of Nydrocarbon Emission Reductions

Proposed to Achieve the Federal Ozone Standard

in the San Francisco Bay Area

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113



### Figure 18. LIRAQ-Generated 1987 Maximum Ozone Concentration

on Design Value Day with the Proposed Ozone

Control Strategy

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114



### Figure 19. Expected 1987 CO Concentrations in Downtown

San Jose with Motor Vehicle Inspection and



### M aintenance Program

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128



### Figure 20. Oakland Central District. Study Area

. . . . . . . . . . . 131

Figure 21. Annual Carbon Monoxide Reductions from the

Recommended Control Strategy .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139

Figure 22. Vehicle Trips in gay Area: Non-Commercial Travel

.... 149

Figure 23. VMT in Bay Area: Total Travel

. . . . . . . . . . . . . 149



# vLIST 

## OF TABLES

Table 1. Assessment of Control Measure Recommendations

for the 1982 Plan

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Table 2. Summary of Hydrocarbon Emission Reductions from

the 1919 Bay Area Air Quality Plan

. . . . . . . . . . . 29

Table 3. San Francisco Bay Area Emission Inventory Summary,

1979-2000

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Table 4. Comparison of Baseline Travel Forecasts

......... 57

Table 5. 1975 Hot Stabilized Highway Link Emission Factor

Compari sons

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

Table 6. 1975 Light-Duty Vehicle Trips End Emission Factor

Compari sons

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

Table 7. Comparison of Percent Contribution to Regional

Vehicle Miles of Travel by Vehicle Category

....... 59

Table 8. 1979 Truck Emission Factors

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

Table 9. September Weekday Organic Emission Reductions by

Control Measure

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

Table 10. Summary of 1979 Ozone Compliance Status of BAAQMD

Monitoring Sites

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Table 11. Comparison of Observed and LIRAQ-simulated Hourly

Average Ozone Concentrations (in pphm) at 21 Bay

Area Monitoring Stations

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

Table 12. Baseline LIRAQ Simulation Results Using the

September 29, 1978 Prototype Meteorology Together

with Emission Inventories for 1979 and 1987

....... 72

Table 13. Sensitivity Coefficients

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

Table 14. Comparison of LIRAQ Simulations with and without

Biogenic Emissions

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

Table 15. Fractional Contribution of Biogenic Emissions to

Total Inventory

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

Table 16. Comparison of Effect of Mobile and Stationary

Source Emission Reductions on Ozone

. . . . . . . . . . . 76

Table 17. Bay Area CO Hot Spot Monitoring Data.

.......... 79 

## PAGE

vi

## PAGE

Table 18. Baseline 1987 Carbon Monoxide Concentrations for

San Jose, Oakland and Vallejo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

Table 19. CO Background Concentration Levels for 1979 and

Baseline 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

Table 20. Factors Affecting Trip-Making Activity Considered

in Guadalupe Corridor Travel Forecasts . . . . . . . . . 89

Table 21. Summary of Alternative Stationary Source Controls

Considered

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

Table 22. Ranking of Proposed Stationary Source Control

Measures in Order of Preference Based on Cost per Unit Ozone Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

Table 23. Stationary Source Control Measures Considered

Not Reasonably Available . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

Table 24. Assessment of Clean Air Act Section 108(f)

Transportation Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

Table 25. Recommended Transportation Controls . . . . . . . . . . . 105

Table 26. Tentative Schedule for Implementation of

Statinnary Source Control Measures. . . . . . . . . . . . 111

Table 21. Annual Hydrocarbon Emission Reductions from

Recommended Control Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112

Table 28. Comparison of San Jose Transportation Measures

with Clean Air Act Section 108(f) Measures ....... 121

Table 29. Cumulative Effectiveness of Proposed Control

Measures on CO Concentration in San Jose. ........ 129

Table 30. Summary of Recommended Carbon Monoxide Control

Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

Table 31. Annual Carbon Monoxide Emission Reductions from

the Recommended Control Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138

:



### viio Population growth as forecast in ABAG's Projections '79

.

o Employment growth and production at various industrialcommercial and manufacturing operations.

o Allowance for future cogeneration/resource recovery projects
(with combined emissions of 1.5 tons/day particulate, 3.3
tons/day organics, 15.1 tons/day NO x , 2.6 tons/day S0 2 , and 18.2 tons/day CO).

o Control technology.

o Effects of existing and future control regulations (i.e., BAApO Regulation 8, Rules 1-28).

o Other - including engineering judgecent on aodifications to
all of the above assum+ptions.

Energy assuaptions generally do®inate the other assumptions when
calculating projections of sass eeission rates froa stationary sources.

Detailed documwntation of the data and assumptions used to prepare

the eaission estieates for each source category is contained in the 'Source Category Nethodoiogy' document prepared by 6AAQM (June 1982).

ISotor Yehicle Emissions

The inventory of arotor vehicle ewissions is divided into two parts:

(i) link enissions - Occurring ainly on waf or streets and

highways, these e issions are frow vehicle engines that are fully +rar¢ed up (i.e., hot stabilized).

(ii) trip end ewissions - These ewissions occur at the beginning aWi end of each trip due to different engine
operating characteristics. There are three types of trip

end enissions: cold start, hot start and hot soak.

The raethods and data used to coatpute link and trip end ewissions are Quite different, as are their resulting geographic and hourly

distributions. These wethods are fully docuaented in Tech. Newo 12 (Yada and Kan, 1977) for the 1919 Bay Area Air Quality Plan. For the

1982 Plan, a nueber of changes in a ethodology were adopted to reflect

wore recent derelopaents. These are described in the following

sections.

Re ional Trarel Forecasts -- Table 4 suaraarizes the current trarel forecasts and presents, or comparison purposes, the corresponding
outputs fron the previous forecasts for the 1979 Plan. A coaparison of

this baseline with the earlier baseline sho+es that the current one is
slightly lower. This is expected, however, since the current baseline
incorporates the iaprovements in transit serrice that were adopted in

the 1979 Plan.

56

### TABLE 4. COMPARISON OF BASELINE TRAVEL FORECASTS

Vehicle

Year Trips VMT



### 1982 1979 9,987,800 77,300,000

Plan 

### 1987 11,251,400 90,400,000

Baseline 

### 1975 9,048,800 64,537,900

1985 10,758,400 80,490,700

1979 2000 12,898,800 108,999.400

Plan

ont ro

Alt. 

### 1985 10,482,800 78,456,100

Enission Factors. In the 

### 1979 Plan the emission factors were based

on s , woAified to account for 

### EPA's Draft Supplesent 

### 8 to 

### AP-42. For the 

### 1982 update, the factors were based on EMFAC 

### 6c (ARB,

1980 and 

### 1981), and provided by 

### ARB as before. To illustrate the
difference in eoission factors, Tables 5 and 6 are comparisons of the link and trip end factors, respectivety, for both pians for the year

1975. E?ifAC 6c reflects 

### EPA's revised methodolog)► for co®puting speed and temperature correction factors (USEPA, 

### 1918). Ewfssion factors are

derived on the basis of the 

### 1975 Federal Test Procedure, which assunes
aun aatbient tewperature of 

### 75 ° F and an average route speed of 19.6 wiles
per hour. E1fAC 6c also reflects ARB estimates of vehicle use, age distribution, and vehicle deterioration rates. Speed and temperature corrrection factors are required in the inventory process to reflect
local coediti,.ns as wch as possible.

Separate trip end eoissions inventories were developed for the ozone and carbon wonoxide control strategy analyses to reflect the difference in tewperature profile between a day in the worst ozone season an0 a day in the +rorst CO season. The e•issions inventory for ozone was for a Septeober weekday. while the inventory for carbon monoxide was foc a tiovewber weekday, when aabient teaperatures would be

1 ower.

Yebicle Mix. The vehicle nix used in the 1979 Plan is cox+pared in

Table 

## 7 with the current eix assWtions for the 1982 Plan. The 1979
Plan was bised on statewide average vehicle travel as estiwated in 1975. wbereas the currmt wix assualptions are based on actual Bay Area truck cowrts catiducted by Caitrans for fiTC (Xnudson. 

### 1981). These counts revealed that the percentage of trucks actually on the road in the Bay Mea is significantly lower than was asswied for the 

### 1979 Plan.

A further refinewent of the vehicle +aix was the separate accounting for wedfaa-duty trucks. For the 1979 Plan, wedium-duty truck earission
fact.ors and estimates of the wediue-duty truck population were not
camplete, so tt ese vehicles were lueped with heavv-duty gasoline trucks. Since eoission factors for sedivaE-duty trucks can be significantly lower
than those for heavy-duty trucks (see Tabie 8). the refined cate9ory 

# t , .

57

### definition had the effect of reducing the contribution of this category

to the total link emissions inventory.

~ Link S e

~

eds

~ . Carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions decrease

withncr

~ — eas vehicle speed; nitrogen oxide emissions increase with vehicle speed. The method for computing link emissions takes this i.nto account by using specified link speeds provided by the MTC travel model,
which also produces link trip data. Link speeds can be obtained by a variety of inethods. The MTC travel model provides estimates of average link speed and congested link speed. The computer program which is used to estimate link emissions (BAPOLLUT) can also provide estimates of link
speed based on volume-to-capacity ratios. In the 1979 Plan the volume-to-capacity ratio method was used. For the 1982 Plan, speeds assigned in the MTC travel simulations were used because it was thought that the v/c ratio method might result in some

, links being assigned artificially low speeds. This would occur particularly during the peak

hours of travel.



## TABLE 5. 1975 HOT STABILIZED HIGHWAY LINK EMISSIOM

FACTOR COMPARISON

(grams/mile @20 mph, averaged over all vehicle types)

CO HC (Org.) NO x SO x PART

1979 Plan 42.30 4.51 3.52 0.17 0.52

1982 Plan 43.5 4.35 2.43 0.12 0.46

Emissions From Natural Vegetation (Biogenic)

In 1980 ABAG initiated a project with partial support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to prepare an inventory of hydrocarbon emissions from natural vegetation (biogenic).

The biogenic hydrocarbon emissions inventory was prepared from two
major data bases:

o a map of vegetation distribution in the Bay Area compiled from satellite data gathered by NASA;

o a set of emission factors describing biogenic hydrocarbon emission rates for all of the land cover (vegetation)
classes identified in the Region from the NASA data.

Vegetatton File. The vegetation file was derived from satellite
imagery of California recorded on August 6, 1916. In order to use these data to produce a biogenic hydrocarbon emissions inventory for the Bay • Area, ABAG had to first focus in on the Bay Area portion of that data file, and then identify vegetation classes from the data. Land cover classes in both urban and rural areas were identified and a vegetation file of twenty-three land cover classes was produced. The data file was then converted into a UTM hectare grid and entered into BASIS, ABAG's

53 ~



## _ I i

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### I

5