Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | March 2017 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Missouri River Basin 

March 2017 

National - Significant Events for December 2016 - February 2017

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Mountain Snowpack

Regional - Climate Overview for December 2016 - February 2017

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

December 1, 2016 - February 28, 2017

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

December 1, 2016 - February 28, 2017

Highlights for the Basin

It was the sixth warmest winter for the U.S., with 

the majority of the extreme warmth to the south 

and east of the Basin. The exception was Missouri, 

which had its 4th warmest winter on record. 

It was also the eighth wettest winter for the U.S. 

The Basin had extremes on both ends of the 

spectrum, with Wyoming (wettest), Colorado (5th 

wettest), and North Dakota (6th wettest) ranking 

among the wettest winters on record and Missouri 

ranking 10th driest.

Numerous locations set new temperature records 

in February - even beating out those set in recent 

years. A new February record of 87°F in Goodland, 

KS crushed its old record by 5°F, set just last year. 

Meanwhile, Denver, CO had its earliest 80°F+ 

day on record with a high temperature of 80°F 

on February 10th. This beat the previous record, 

March 16, 2015, by over a month.

While upper portions of the Basin received heavy 

snowfall this winter, lower portions experienced 

a “snow drought.” Season-to-date snowfall for 

Bismarck, ND ranked as the 4th highest on record 

(62.9 inches), while Lincoln, NE ranked as 2nd 

lowest (6.9 inches).

Rocky Mountain snowpack was off to a slow 

start this season, but then quickly rebounded. 

In some areas, snowfall was so heavy at times 

that ski resorts were forced to shut down. 

By mid-March, mountain snowpack was 

above average for the reach above Fort Peck 

Dam (104%) and for the reach between Fort 

Peck and Garrison Dams (137%). The U.S. 

Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of 

Reclamation are releasing water to make room 

for an above-normal runoff year due to the 

high snowpack. Plains snowpack has largely 

melted due to extreme warmth.

Overall, precipitation was above to much 

above normal for the majority of the Basin. 

Most of Wyoming, central Colorado, northern 

Nebraska/southern South Dakota, and portions 

of Montana and North Dakota received at 

least 200 percent of normal precipitation. On 

the other hand, areas of eastern Colorado and 

eastern Kansas, along with the majority of 

Missouri were below normal. This resulted in 

improvements in drought conditions in wetter 

areas and the persistence or development of 

drought conditions in drier areas.

There was a large contrast in temperatures 

across the Basin this winter, with departures 

ranging from 8°F below normal to 8°F above 

normal. Generally, areas to the north and west 

were below normal, while areas to the south 

and east were above normal. This general 

pattern held during December and January, 

but much above-normal temperatures were 

widespread during February. By the end of 

winter, records were nearly set on both ends 

of the spectrum, as several locations ranked in 

either the top 10 warmest or coolest winters 

on record. 

The average U.S. temperature during February was 41.2°F, 7.3°F above average, and the second 

warmest on record. The winter U.S. temperature was 35.9°F, 3.7°F above average, and the sixth 

highest on record. February U.S. precipitation was 2.21 inches, 0.08 inch above average. The winter 

precipitation total was 8.22 inches, 1.43 inches above average, and the eighth wettest on record.

Please Note: Material provided in this map was compiled from NOAA’s State of the Climate Reports. 

For more information please visit: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc

Missouri Basin Mountain Snowpack

03/01/2017
Regional - Impacts for December 2016 - February 2017

Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | March 2017

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for April - June 2017 MO River Basin Partners

:#regionalclimateoutlooks

High Plains Regional Climate Center

www.hprcc.unl.edu

National Drought Mitigation Center

www.drought.unl.edu

National Integrated Drought Information System

www.drought.gov

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Weather Service - Central Region

www.crh.noaa.gov/crh

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Missouri River Basin Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

North Central Climate Science Center

http://nccsc.colostate.edu

South Dakota State University Extension

http://igrow.org

American Association of State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - Missouri River Basin 

Water Management Division

www.usace.army.mil

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Regional Climate Hubs

www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/regional_hubs.htm

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

www.usbr.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area

www.usgs.gov/water

Western Governors’ Association

www.westgov.org

Above: (Top) Heavy snows in Colorado and Wyoming have impacted wildlife, 

forcing them to roads in search of food, photo courtesy Wyoming Game & Fish 

Department; (Middle) over 1,000 acres burned in this early spring fire on the Pine 

Ridge Reservation, photo courtesy David Martin, BIA; and (Bottom) early budding 

magnolia tree in Kansas, photo courtesy Mary Knapp, K-State Weather Data Library. 

Christmas Day Storm

A large, potent storm system impacted the region on Christmas Day, 

with freezing rain, heavy snowfall, and blizzard conditions in the north 

and severe thunderstorms to the south. The storm severely impacted 

travel, caused power outages to thousands, and damaged homes 

and buildings. In places like Minot, North Dakota, over a foot of snow 

fell with heavy drifting. According to the Minot Daily News, the local 

police issued a rare “no travel” advisory. To the south, a rare December 

tornado outbreak occurred in Kansas and Nebraska.

Heavy Fuels Increase Fire Risk

A largely snowless winter combined with ample vegetation growth 

from last year’s rains has led to an increased fire risk this spring. 

Typically, winter snows knock vegetation to the ground, where it 

becomes packed and can hold moisture. Standing vegetation, however, 

dries and burns much more quickly, which increases the risk of fire. As 

of this writing, several fires have already burned hundreds of thousands 

of acres across portions of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, and South 

Dakota. People, structures, and thousands of cattle have all fallen victim 

to the fires.

Early Warmth Causes Concerns

The extreme warmth of February had many impacts including ice jam 

flooding, early calving, and muddy fields. Pests, such as the alfalfa 

weevil, were already spotted in some areas as well. Additionally, an 

early green-up of winter wheat puts the crop at a higher risk for freeze 

damage. In some areas of early green-up, last spring freezes typically 

occur in late April and early May. Depending on conditions this spring, 

the impacts of this early warmth could continue to be realized.

3-Month Precipitation and 

Temperature Outlooks 

According to the Climate Prediction Center, La 

Niña conditions ended in February and ENSOneutral conditions are currently present. These 

conditions are favored through the late spring 

or early summer, with an increasing potential 

for the development of El Niño conditions into 

the fall.

Over the next three months, above-normal 

temperatures are favored for much of the 

Basin including Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, 

Nebraska, the southern half of Wyoming, 

and portions of southern South Dakota. 

Meanwhile, above-normal precipitation is 

favored for much of the northern tier of the 

Basin including Montana, the Dakotas, much of 

Wyoming, and northern Nebraska.

Valid for April - June 2017

EC: Equal chances of above, near or below normal

A: Above normal, B: Below normal

Precipitation Temperature

NOAA Spring

Flood Outlook

03/16/2017

According to NOAA, an above-normal to much 

above-normal flood risk exists for northern 

areas of North Dakota, including the Souris 

River, Devils Lake, and northern portions of 

the Red River of the North. Moderate to major 

flooding is possible for areas of the Souris and 

Red Rivers, while record runoff for the Devils 

Lake Basin increases the chances for significant 

flooding there.

Although concerns were mounting over the 

potential for significant flooding throughout 

the Red River Valley, the February warmth 

melted much of the snowpack and lowered 

the overall risk. 

A

A

33

33

40

EC

50

40

EC