,

Data from the

NATIONAL SURVEY OF FAMILY GROWTH

SocioeconomicDifferentialsand Trends

in the Timing of Births c

This report contains an analysis of cumulative birth probabilities

within first marriages in the United States. Trends and differentials

in these probabilities, by race, Hispanic origin, education at first

marriage, farm origin, religious preference, and timing of first birth

are discussed. The probabilities are shown for specified birth order

intervals and age at first marriage or previous birth.

DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 81-1982

Series 23

Number 6

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

Public Health Service

Office of Health Research, Statistics, and Technology

National Center for Health Statistics

Hyattsville, Md. February 1981
...

. .., ...

...

!

I

,/

t

.,

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Ford, Kathleen.

no.

%cioeconomic differentials and trends in the ~iminx (JI I)irths.

(Vital and health statistics: Series 23, Data from the >utionzl Survc\ (J1 L.llnll~ [ ;r<>~~[h:

6) (DHHS publication; no. (PHS) 81-1982)

Includes biblio<qaphical references.

Supt. of Docs. no.: HE 20.6209:23/6

1. Birth intervals-United States–Statistics. 2. Fertilit}, Human .- Unittx{ Stci:cs Statistics. 3. United States–Statistics, Vital. I. Title. II. Series: United St.itcs. Naiii)nxl (;cntrr

for Health Statistics. Vital and health statistics: Series 23, D:L[a from the ~~Ltit>lla] Sumc}

of Family Growth; no. 6. III. Series: United States. Dept. of IIcalth Jnd IIIIIJI.tn Semicm.

L)HHS publication; no. (PHS) 81-1982.

HB915.F66 312’.1’73 80-ti(17 1.35

ISBN 0-8406 -0192-1

~----- ——----
NATIONAL CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS

DOROTHY P. RICE, Director

ROBERT A. ISRAEL, Deputy Director

JACOB J. FELDMAN, Ph.D., Acting Associate Director for Analysis and Epidemiology

GAIL F. FISHER, Ph. D., Acting Assoctite Director for the Cooperative Health Statistics System

GARRIE J. LOSEE, Acting Associzte Director for Data Processing and Services

ALVAN O. ZARATE, Ph. D., Assistant Director for International Statistics

E. EARL BRYANT, Acting Associate Director for Interview and Examination Statistics

ROBERT C. HUBER, Acting Assoctite Director for Management

MONROE G. SIRKEN, Ph.D., Acting Associate Director for Research and Methodology

PETER L. HURLEY, Acting Associate Director for Vital and Health CareStatistks

ALICE HAYWOOD, Information Officer

DIVISION OF VITAL STATISTICS

JOHN E. PATTERSON, Director

ALICE M. HETZEL, Deputy Director

WILLIAM F. PRATT, Chiefi Family Growth Survey Branch

JOSEPH D. FARRELL, Chiej Programming Branch

MABEL G. SMITH, Chie&Statistical Resources Branch

Vital and Health Statistics-Series 23-No. 6

DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 81-1982

Library of CongressCatalog CardNumber 80-607135
CONTENTS

Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................

Summary of Principal Findings ....“............................................................................

Y

............................

Background and Methodology ...............................................................................................................

Specific Find@s .................................................................................................................................. .

Age and Birth Order Dlfferentids ....................................................................................................

Hispanic Origin .................................................................................................................................

Education at First Mtiage ..............................................................................................................

Farm Origin ......................................................................................................................................

Religion .............................................................................................................................................

Prern&tal Conception ...... ....................................u .......................................................................

Trends in Bkth Probabilities, 1950-73 .............................................................................................

References ..............................................................................................................................................

List of Detailed Tables ...........................................................................................................................

Appendixes

I. Technical Notes ........................................................................................................................

II. Calculation of Birth Probabtiities ....................l ........................................................................

IIL Definition of Terns ..................................................................................................................

fV. Selected Items from the NSFG Questionnaire ..........................................................................

LIST OF TEXT FIGURES

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

Cumulative birth probabilities by month for the interval from second birth to third birth, by

mother’s age at second bh-th: United States, I 973 ....................................................... ................

Cumulative birth probabilities by month for the interval from first marriage to fmt birth by

mother’s age at first marriage, according to race: United States, 1973 ........ ..... ... ..... . .. ...........

.

Cumulative birth probabilities by month for the interval from first birth to secon~-birth by

mother’s age at first birth, according to race: United States, 1973 ................ .................... .........

Cumulative birth probabilities by month for the interval from second birth to third birth by

mother’s age at second birth, according to race: United States, 1973 ........... ................. .............

Cumulative birth probabilities by month for the intervaf from third birth to fourth ‘birth by

mother’s age at third birth, according to race: United States, 1973 ...............................................

Cumulative birth probalilit.ies by month for the interval from fourth birth to fifth birth by

mother’s age at fourth birth, accordkg to race: United States, 19 73............................................

Cumulative birth probabilities by month for the interval from fifth birth to sixth birth for

women whose fifth child was born before age 29, by race: United States, 1973 ...........................

1

1

2

3

3

4

7

7

8

8

8

8

10

11

37

44

46

48

4

5

5

6

6

7

7

.

...

Ill
SYMBOLS

Data not available ---------------------------------- ---

Category not applicable ---------------------------- . . .

Quantity zero ---------------------------------------- -

Quantity more than Obut less than 0.05------ 0.0

Figure does not meet standards of

reliability or precision-----— -------------------

*

iv
SOCIOECONOMIC

IN THE

DIFFERENTIALS AND TRENDS

TIMING OF BIRTHS

Kathleen Ford, Ph. D., formerly with the Division of Vital Statistics

INTRODUCTION

This report presents an analysis of how

quickly births follow first marriage and succeeding births. It is concerned with whether births

occur sooner after marriage and closer together

in some socioeconomic groups of women than in

other groups. Trends in the timing of births are

also considered. The data in this report pertain

only to births within first marriage, not to all

births.

Although the data were collected in 1973,

the techniques, measures, and substantive findings discussed in this report are unique and of

continuing importance in any compIete amdysis

of childspacing, fertility differentials, and fertility trends in the United States. The data are a

product of an important new application of life

tabIe methodology that provides more wdid

measures of childspacing and of the extent of

untimely births in various groups than has heretofore been available. Accordingly this report

provides valuable baseline data against which

future studies of chlldspacing and fertility differentials and trends can be compared.

The timing of births within marriage may

have important effects on annual fertility rates,

maternal and child health, and the future economic status of parents. Given the present low

levels of fertility in the United States, the timing

of births may have more effect than changes in

completed family size on annual fertiIity rates,

since changes in completed family size are likely

to be small. Even if completed family size does

not change at all, if birth intervals become

shorter, annual fertility rates will rise temporarily; if birth intervals become longer, annual

fertility rates will fall.

In addition to the effect on fertility rates,

the spacing of births can have a long-lasting influence on the health of the mother and child.

The risk of maternal and infant mortality, as

well as other complications of childbirth, increases when births are spaced closely together.

The timing of the arrival of children also influences the occupational and educational opportunities of the parents. Lfuch attention has been

focused on the timing of the first birth l-S as a

crucial event in determining the family’s relative

socioeconomic status later in life.

SUMMARY OF PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

This report presents natiomd estimates of

differences between socioeconomic groups in

the timing of births within first marriages in the

United States. Using a life table technique, the

report shows the probability of having a birth

within a specified period of time since the first

marriage or the most recent birth. This section

highlights some findings discussed in greater detail in later sections.

The data demonstrate that a woman’s age at

first marriage or her most recent birth is closely

associated with how quickly the next birth will

take place. For example, women first married

before age 19 were more likeIy to have their first

birth within 12 months of marriage than were

women married in the age group 19-21 years, or

those aged 22 years or over. The respective
probabilitie~ were .46 , .35, and .26. This indicates that the chances were 46, 35, and 26 out

of 100, respectively, that a birth would occur

within 12 months of marriage. Because age has

this important effect, cumulative birth probabilities by other characteristics are shown separately for comparable cat egories of age at first

marriage or previous birth.

There were significant differences in the

timing of births in different racial, ethnic, and

religious groups. Black women were about twice

as likely to have their firs$ birth within 7 months

of marriage as white women were (the probabilities were .32 and .14, respectively) and to have

a second birth within a year of their first birth

(.14 and .07, respectively). Black wives were also

more likely than white wives to have subsequent

births spaced closely together.

Women of Hkpanic origin were more likely

to have their first birth within a year of marriage

than were other women (.49 and .36, respectively), to have a second birth within 18 months

of the first (.29 and .23, respectively), and to

have a third birth within 18 months of the second (.24 and .16, respectively).

White Cafholic wives were more likely than

were white Protestant wives to have two live

births within 18 months of each other. For both

the first and subsequent births, birth probabilities for white Catholic women were higher than

for white Protestant women at each 6-month interval from 12 to 60 months after first marriage,

although not always significantly so.

Among women of similar ages at first marriage or at the birth of their most recent child,

there was no strong, consistent patte~ in the

timing of births by the educational at@inment

of the women at the time of first marriage.

The probability of having a first birth within

12 months of marriage was higher for women

first married in 1960-64 than for women first

married in 1970-73. Similarly, the probability of

having a second birth within 18 months of the

first birth was lower for women first married in

1970-73 than for women first married in 1960-

64.

In general, the findings of this report suggest

two overall conclusions. Since the late 1950 ‘s,

there has been some lengthening of birth intervals for the first two births and declines in the

probabilities of later births within first marriages

in the United States. However, there are still significant groups—black women, Hispanic women,

women who marry at young ages, and (Catholic

women—who frequently have births at closely

spaced intervals. These findings may have important implications for fertility rates, maternal and

child health, and the economic prospects of

parents.

After this summary, the text contains sections describing the background and methodology of the report, and a more detailed discussion

of the specific findings of the study. Appendixes o

I-IV contain technical notes, an explanation of

how the birth probabilities were calculated, definitions of terms, and a reproduction of the survey questions on marriages and births.

BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY

The data presented in this report are results

of the 1973 National Survey of Family Growth

(NSFG), conducted by the National Center for

Health Statistics. The NSFG is a periodic survey

designed to~rovide information about fertility,

family planning, and those aspects of maternal

and child health that are closely related to childbearing. For the 1973 survey, data on these

topics were collected through personal interviews with about 9,800 women 15-44 years of

age who had ever been married or who had offspring of their own living in the household. Respondents were selected by a multistage, area

probability, cross-sectional sample of households

in the conterrninous United States. The interviews were conducted between July 1973 and

February 1974, and were centered on September 13, 1973. Further discussion of the survey

desi~, definition of terms, and sampling variability can be found in the appendixes.

In this report, the detailed pregnancy histories obtained from each respondent in t’he 1973

survey are used to study spacing of live births.

The spacing of births is discussed in terms of the

following six intervals:

First interval-First marriage to first birth.

Second interval–First birth to second birth.

Third interval-Second birth to third birth.

2
Fourth interval-Third birth to fourth birth.

Fifth interval-Fourth birth to fifth birth.

Sixth interval-Fifth birth to sixth birth.

A cross-sectional sample of women 15-44

years of age is useful in analyzing the spacing of

births because it permits study of groups of

women of the greatest interest—younger wives

who may not have completed their childbearing.

However, this cross-sectional design requires that

several special procedures be used to insure that

the estimates of birth intervals are unbiased.4

This section describes those procedures.

Because women were selected by marital

status for the sample, this report focuses only on

births that occurred within first marriages, not

on all births. Women who had a live birth before

their first marriage were excIuded from the

calculations.

Since the younger women had to have married at a young age to be included in the sample,

women in the younger age cohorts who will

marry at older ages are not observed. Thus there

is a younger distribution of age at first marriage

than would be obtained from a sample taken

only from an age group in which most women

who will marry have already done so. Since

many studies have shown that age at first marriage is related to subsequent fertility, tabulations on the interval from first marriage to first

birth were controlled for age at first marriage.

Similarly, because women of childbearing

age (15-44 years of age) were interviewed, most

of the fertiIity histories collected are incomplete.

Many of the women interviewed will have more

children in the future. The younger women in

the sample will have had births only at young

ages; the older women, however, may have had

births both at younger and at older ages. Therefore, the study of a cross-section of women 15-44

years of age may yield a younger distribution of

age at each birth than would be observed if a

sample of women who had completed childbearing was selected. Because age at each birth is

related to subsequent fertility, age at previous

birth was controlled in all tabulations for intervals after the first birth.

Similarly, the time between births is affected

because women were interviewed before they

completed childbearing. The younger women in

the sample have been able to have had children

for a shorter period of time before the interview

than have the older women. As a result the

younger women who have had more than one

live birth can only have had short intervals between births, but the older women could have

had long or short intervals between births. Thus

any cross-sectional sample of women of childbearing age yields more short intervak between

births than would be observed if only women

with completed fertility histories had been interviewed.

Because of these problems, spacing between

births was not measured by computing the mean

number of months from one birth (birth n) to

the next (birth n + 1) for women with n + 1 or

more births. Means computed in this manner

would be too smalI because of the short intervals

resulting from the cross-sectional design of the

study. Instead a life table procedure was used to

compute the cumulative probability of having a

birth a given number of months since the first

marriage or since the previous birth.

A life table procedure allows the combination of data on closed intervals with data on

open intervak. A closed interval is the number

of months from one birth (birth n) to the next

birth (birth n + 1) for women with at least n + 1

births during their first marriage. An open interval is the number of months from birth n to interview for those with n births still in their first

marriage at the time of interview or the number

of months from birth n to the end of first marriage for those whose first marriage ended between their nth birth and the interview. The details of the calculation of these cumulative birth

probabilities can be found in appendix II. In this

report, a birth refers to a pregnancy ending in at

least one live birth. The end of first marriage

refers to the time that the woman and her husband stopped living together and not to the date

of formal dissolution, if any.

SPECIFIC FINDINGS

Age and Birth Order Differentials

Table 1 shows the age and birth order patterns of marital fertility in the United States.

3
During the first interval (first marriage to first

birth) the probability of having a first birth rises

very quickly. By the end of 5 years, the cumulative probability of having a first birth is .91 for

women married before age 19, .85 for women

married at age 19-21, and .78 for women married at age 22 or over. Age at first marriage is

also related to the probability of a premarital

conception (a birth by the end of 7 months of

marriage). The probability y of a premarital conception was .22 for women mafiied before age

19, .14 for women married at age 19-21, and .08

for women married at age 22 or over.

For the interval from first birth to second

birth (second interval), the data show that a

younger age at first birth increases the probability of having a second birth within 18 months

of the first: the probability is .27 for women

with first birth before age 21, and .19 for women

with first birth at age 24 or over. The probability of a second birfh within 5 years is .84 for

women whose first birth was before age 24, and

.75 for women whose first birth was at age 24 or

over. In general, age at first birth has a smaller

effect on the timing of the second birth than age

at first marriage has on the timing of the first

birth.

The birth probabilities for the first two intervals are high, and appear to reflect a desire for

at least two children in almost every marriage.

Figure 1 shows cumulative probabilities of a

third birth by the age of the wife at her second

birth. This interval is particularly important because an average of about two births per couple

suffices to replace the population of each generation; three births per couple implies substantial

population growth over the long term. Stronger

differences emerge in this interval than in the

previous two intervals because more couples decide then that their family is complete. Five

years after the second birth, the probability of a

third birth is .68 for women with a second

birth before age 23, .55 for women with a second birth at age 23-26, and .37 for women with

a second birth at age 27 or over. A younger age

at second birth is related to a greater probability

of having a third birth within 18 months of the

second.

When corresponding groups by age at previous birth are compared for the fourth through

1,00

.90

E

— Under 23 years

> —- 23.26 years

: .80 —.- 27 years or over

NUMBER OF MONTHS

1Ever.mrmd wmm 1544 yearsof age, Excludeswomen who hmda prmwitd birth.

Figure 1. Cumulative birth probabilit.jes by month for the interval from second birth to third birth, by mother’s age et

second birttw United States, 19731

the sixth intervals, the cumulative birth probabilities are very similar. However there are sharp

differentials among the age groups in each of

these birth intervals. The birth probabilities are

much lower for women who were older at their

previous birth (table 1).

Race

In table 1 and figure 1, an important association is shown between age at marriage or previous birth on the one hand and the timing of

additiomd births on the other hand. But even

within age groups, there are differences in birth

probabilities between white wives andl black

wives. Table 2 and figures 2-7, therefore, show

birth probabilities for white women and black

women separately. In the first interval (fiegure 2),

first marriage to first birth, the probability of a

birth within 7 months of marriage” is higher

among black women than among white women

in all three age groups (under 19, 19-21, and 22

years or over). However, by the end of 5 years,

within age groups, the probability of having a

first birth is similar for the two races.

Close spacing of births (two pregnancies

each ending in at least one live birth within 18

months of each other) was more common

among black women than among white women

in all age groups and all intervals beycmd the

first birth. , Although some of the differences

e

4
1.00

r

UNDER 19 YEARS

.90 -

.80 -

>

5 ,70 -

=

<

~ .60 -

n.

~ .50 -

z

u

? .40 -

3

: .30 -

~

.20

.10

0

0 712182430S6 48 so

NUMSER OF MONTHS

1.00

[

19-21 YEARS

.90

‘Evwnmnedwomen1544 yearsof age.F.Kd.iimwrnm who h?d a pmnmtal birth,

1.00r22 YEARS OR OVER

,90 -

,80 -

.70 -

.W -

.50 -

.40 –

.30 —

.20 —

o

0 7 12 18 24 30 36 48 60

NUMBER OF MONTHS

Figure 2. Cumulative birth probabilities by month for the interval from first marriage to first birth by mother’s age at first marriage,

according to race: United States, 19731

1m

r

UNDER 21 YEARS 1.OiJr21.23 YEARS

.80

t

.90

t

1,s)0r

24 YEARS OR OVER

30

60 t

NUMBER OF MONTHS NUMBER OF MONTHS

1Ev.r.marttudwmncn1544 yeas. ( age,Excludeswomenwhohadapremarnalhmh

NUMBER OF MONTHS

Figure 3. Cumulative birth probabilities by month for the interval from first birth to second birth by mother’s age at first birth,

according to race: United States, 19731

5
100

r

UNDER 23 YEARS 1.00 r

23.26 YEARS

.90

t

,80 — .80 –

>

$ .70 — .70 —

z

<

g ,60 — 60 –

:

x

/

& ,50 .50 –

/

=

; .40 ,40 —

z

: ,30 — .30 —

~

.20 – .20 –

.10 — ,10 –

o

0 12 18 24 30 36 48 60 0 12 18 24 30 36 4s 80

NUMBER OF MONTHS NUMBER OF MONTHS

‘E,wnuntd wont” 1544 yews of W, Exclude, women who had a Pmm,r,td b,,th,

1.Oa r

27 YEARS OR OVER

,90

,80

.70

.60

I

I

,50

t

.40

K:

B\acK

,--’

.30 /

*b>’/

/

/

.20

/’

/

,10 /

/

/

o

0 12 1S 24 30 36 48 60

NUMBER OF MONTHS

Figure 4. Cumulative birth probabilities by month for the interval from second birth to third birth by mother’s age at second birth,

according to race: United States, 19731

1.00

r

UNOER 25 YEARS

.901-

.80 1-

1.00

,90

.80 [

25.29 YEARS

I

.70 -

.60 –

.50 —

.40 –

.30 -

.20 -

.10 -

0

0 12 18 24 30 36 4B 60

NUMBER OF MONTHS

‘ Ever.muncd women 1544 yews of age Excludes women who Ihad8 prenmml bmh

Figure 5. Cumulative birth probabilities by month for the interval from third birth to fourth birth by mother’s age at third birth,

according to race: United States, 19731

.

6
1,00

r

UNDER 27 YEARS

,90

.80 [

NUM8ER OF MoNTHS

‘L, e.nurncd w.mm 1544 I carsof asc L.d.dts wumcn who bada pmmar,td bir!h.

1.00

r

27.31 YEARS

.70

t

.60 -

.50 -

.40 -

,30 -

.20 -

,10 -

0

0 12 18 24 30 36 48 60

NUMBER OF MONTHS

Fiaure 6. Cumulative bkth probabilities bv month for the interval from fourth bkth to fifth birth by mother’s age at fourth birth,

according to race: United States, 1973]

.

oI. I I I I I I I

o 12 18 24 30 36 48 80

NUMBER OF MONTHS

lEXWnAmCd wzmrn [544 PAM et age LMudcs m.mcn wh~hd aprcm%rd birth.

Figure 7. Cumulative birth probabilities by month for the interval from fifth birth to sixth birth for women whose fifth

child was born before age 29, by race: United States,

19731

within age groups are not statistically significant,

the size and consistency of these differences

strongly suggest that they exist in the population as well as in the sample.

In the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth intervals

the probability of having a birth within 5 years

was substantially higher fox black women than

for white women.

Hispanic Origin

Women of Hispanic origin had a higher

probability of having a live birth within a year

of marriage than other women had. First birth

probabilities at points beyond 1 year were also

usually higher for women of Hispanic origin

(table 3).

In the succeeding intervals women of Hispanic origin were more likely to have births

within 18 months of each other than other

women were. In addition, in most intervals the

birth probabilities rise more quickly for women

of Hispanic origin, although by 5 years after the

beginning of the interval the probabilities for

women of Hispanic origin and all other women

tend to converge.

Education at First Marriage

o

Educational levels were clearly associated

with birth probabilities only for the interval

from first marriage to first birth. The probabilityy

of having a live birth within 7 months of mar-
riage was higher for women at the lowest educational levels than for those at the highest educational levels for white women and women of all

races combined, regardless of age at first marriage (tables 4 and 5). This result may be produced by an effect of education on the timing of

the first birth, or an effect of the first birth on

whether the woman completes school, or some

combination of these factors. Although having a

first birth is a nearly universal phenomenon for

married women in the United States, the 5-year

probabilities of a first birth decrease as educational level increases.

In all subsequent birth intervals, there are

only small, inconsistent differences by educational level within age groups.

Among black wives, there were no consistent

differences by educational level within age

groups (table 6).

Farm Origin

The youngest brides in the sample (those

married before age 19) were less likely to have a

birth within 7 months of marriage if they were

of farm origin. The probability of having a birth

within 7 months of marriage, for those married

before age 19, was .17 for those of farm origin,

and .24 for those of nonfarm origin (table 7).

There were no strong consistent differences

between women of farm and nonfarm origins

within age groups in the remaining intervals

(tables 7-9).

Religion

Birth probabilities for white Catholic and

white Protestant women are shown in table 10.

Among white women who married before age

19, the Catholic women were most likely to

have a live birth within 7 months of marriage.

Their probability was .25 compared to .19 for

Protestant women. Furthermore, the birth probabilities for Catholic women were higher for all

age groups at each 6-month interval from 12

months through 60 months after first marriage

than for white Protestant women.

In the second-, third-, and fourth-order intervals, white Catholic women were more likely

than white Protestant women were to have

closely spaced births (two pregnancies each ending in at least one live birth within 18 months of

i-c

each other) and to have an additional birth

within 5 years of the beginning of the interval.

The birth probabilities were also higher for

Catholic women at each 6-month interval from

12 months to 60 months. Although some of the

differences in the fourth, fifth, and sixth intervals were not statistically significant, the size

and consistency of these differences strongly

suggest that they exist in the population as well

as in the sample.

Premarital Conception

Conceiving a child before marriage ma!y have

an effect on the timing of subsequent childbearing for couples who remain in their first marriage because a premarital conception is correlated with high fecundability and a low level of

ability to plan pregnancies. Table 11 contains

birth probabilities for the second, third, and

fourth birth intervals according to whether or

not the first child was born before the end of

7 months of marriage. Women whose first cl-old

was premaritally conceived were more likely to

have a second birth within 18 months of the

first than were women whose first child was not

conceived premaritally. For women Whlo had

their first birth before they were 24, th~ebirth

probabilities converge by 60 months since the

first birth. However, for women whose first

child was born when they were age 24 or over,

the birth probabilities are lower through the

5th year for those without a premarital conception than for those with a premarital conception. In other words, the oldest group of women

at first birth, not premaritally pregnant, are

probably less likely to have a second birth

For the interval from second to third birth,

among the youngest group of women (those

whose second child was born before age 23),

women whose first child was premaritally conceived were probably more likely to have their

third birth within 18 months of their second.

For the older age group and for the interval

from third to fourth birth, there were no statistically significant differences between women

with and women without premarital conceptions.

Trends in Birth Probabilities, 1950-73

Table 12 contains birth probabilities, by

calendar year of first marriage. Because of the

8
age limits on the population interviewed, to retain comparability between years the age limits

on the oldest group in each interval were restricted. The trends should be interpreted with

caution since many statements are based on subgroups containing only a small number of cases.

In the first interval, first marriage to first

birth, there is no evidence of any strong trends

in premarital conceptions, although the reported

values for women first married in 1950-54 are

lower than those reported for later years. The

interval between marriage and first birth decreased between 1950-54 and 1955-59 for all

age groups and then increased between 1955-59

and 1970-73. In other words, the birth probabilities at given numbers of months since first marriage were higher in 1955-59 than in 1950-54,

and lower in 1970-73 than in 1955-59.

The interval from first birth to second birth

decreased from 1950-54 to 1955-59 (aIthough

not significantly in each age group). Since then

the interval between first and second birth appears to be increasing.

For the third interval, data are available for

the two younger age groups for the late 1950’s

through 1973. A decline in the probability of a

third birth within 18 months of the second can

be seen since 1960-64. Similarly, between 1960-

64 and 1965-69, there was a decline in the probability of a third birth within 5 years of the

second.

For the higher order intervals (third birth to

fourth birth, fourth birth to fifth birth, and fifth

birth to sixth birth), for the time periods available, in every comparison but one, there are declines (not significant in every case) since 1960-

64 in the probabilities of having an additional

birth within 18 months. Similarly, the 5-year

probabilities of having a birth are becoming

smaI.Ier as fewer women go on to have additional

births.

The declines observed in these probabilities

through the later 1960’s and early 1970’s reflect

the overall decline in fertility observed during

that period. Fewer births of order three or

higher as well as fewer closely spaced births

(within 18 months) occurred during this period.

000

9
REFERENCES

lPresser, Harriet B.: The timing of the first birth, female roles and black fertility. M” bank Mere. Fund Q.

#

49(3), part 1: 329-362, July 1971.

2Coombs, Lolagene C., and Freedman, Ronald: Childspacing and family economic position. Am. Socio. Rev.

31(5): 631-648, Oct. 1966.

3Coombs, Lolagene C., and Freedman, Ronald: Premarital pregnancy, childspacing, and later economic

achievement. Popui. Stud. 24(3): 389412, Nov. 1970.

4Ryder, Norman B.: Fertility measurement through

cross-sectional surveys. Sot. Forces. 54(1 ): 7-35, Sept.

1975.

5National Center for He~th statistics: National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle I: Sample design, estimation procedures, and variance estimation, by D. K.

French. Vital and Health Statistics. Series 2-No. 76.

DHEW Pub. No. (PHS) 78-1350. Public Health Service.

Washington. U.S. Government’ Printing Office,Jan. 1978.

6National Center for Health Statistics: Replication:

An approach to the analysis of data from complex surveys, by P.J. McCarthy. Vital and Health Statistics. PHS

Pub. No. 1000-Series 2-N&. 14. Public Health Service.

Washington. U.S. Government Printing Office, Apr. 1966.

7Cufler, S. J., and Ederer, F.: M=imum utilization

of the life table method in analyzing survival. ]. Chronic

Dis. 8(6): 699-712, Dec. 1958.

e

10
LIST OF DETAILED TABLES

1. Number of ever-married women 1544 years of age, and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of

months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the sixth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or

previous birth: United States, 1973 .......................... ...... ............................................ ... ...........................................................

2. Number of ever-married women 15-44 years of age, and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of

months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the sixth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or

previous birth, by race: United States, 1973 ..... .................... ............. ....................................... .................... ............................

3. Number of ever-married women 15-44 years of age, and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of

months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the third birth and age of the wife at first marriage or

previous birth, by Hispanic origin: United States, 1973 ................................................................... ..... ....................................

4. Number of ever-married women 15-44 years of age, and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of

months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the fourth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or

previous birth, by education at first marriage: United States, 1973 .................................... ........................... ..... ......................

5. Number of ever-married white women 15-44 years of age, and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the fourth birth and age of the wife at first

marriage or previous birth, by education at first marriage: United States, 1973 .... ...... ............... ..... ...................... ....................

6. Number of ever-married black women 15-44 years of age, and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number

of months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the third birth and age of the wife at first marriage or

previous birth, by education at first marriage: United States, 1973 .... ................... ........ ...................................... ........ .............

7. Number of ever-married women 15-44 years of age, and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of

months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the sixth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or

previous birth, by farm and nonfarm origin: United States, 1973 .... ..................... .......... ......... ...... .. ...... ...... ........ .....................

8. Number of ever-married white women 15-44 years of age, and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the fifth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or previous birth, by farm and nonfarm origin: United States, 1973 .................. ...... ........ ...................... ...... ....... ..... .........

9. Numbar of ever-married black women 1544 years of age, and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number

of months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the fifth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or

previous birth, by farm and nonfarm origin: United States, 1973 ........................ ............... .................... .................................

10. Number of ever-married white women 15-44 years of age, and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the sixth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or previous birth, by religious preference: United States, 1973 ............... ...................................... ...................................

11. Number of ever-married women 15-44 years of age, and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of

months since previous birth, by birth order through the fourth birth and age of the wife at previous birth, by timing of first

birth: United States, 1973 .. ...................................... ..................... ...... ...................................... ...............................................

12. Number of ever-married women 1544 years of age, and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of

months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth interval through the sixth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or

previous birth, by year of first marriage: United States, 1973 .......................... ...... ............................ .......................................

12 ,

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

11
Table 1. Number of ever-married women 15-44 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriaae. bv number of

months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the sixth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or previous

-,.

birth: United States, 1973

Age at first marriage

Months since marriage or birth

dm

Cumulative probability of a first

Number of woman in thousands .........................................................................................

birth since first marriage

.15

.37

.53

.63

.69

.74

.82

.86

-

.22

.46

.63

.73

.79

.83

.88

.91

.14

.35

.50

.60

.67

.72

.81

.85

.08

.26

.42

.51

.58

.64

.72

.78

Aga at first birth

15-44

years

Under 21 I

21-23

I

24 years

yaars years or over

Number of women in thousands ......................................................................................... 21,151 10,264 I 6,169 I 4,717

Cumulative probability of a second

birth since first birth

Number of months:

.07

.24

.40

.53

.63

.76

.82

.09

.27

.44

.57

.67

.78

.84

.07

.22

.40

.52

.63

.77

.84

.05

.19

.33

.46

.57

.69

.75

1-

Age at second birth

15-44

years

Under 23

years -123-26 27 years

years or over

15,511 II 6,863 I 5,659 I

Number of women in thousands ....... .................................................................................. 2,989

Cumulative probability of a third

birth since second birth

.04

.16

.26

.34

.41

.50

.57

.07

.22

.33

.42

.51

.61

.68

*.03

.14

.22

.29

.36

.46

.55

*.02

.10

.17

.24

.27

.34

.37

llj~cludes women who had a premarital birth.

NOTE: Tlie sums of the aggregates may not add to totals due to rounding.

12
Table 1. Number of ever-married woman 15-44 years of age,l and cumulative birth probab!ltiles within firat marriage, by number of

months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the sixth birth and age of tha wife at first marriage or previous

birth: United States, 1973–Con.

Months since marriage or birth

Number of women in thousands .........................................................................................

Number of months:

12 ..................................................................................................................................

30 ..................................................................................................................................

36 ............................................................... ..................... ..............................................

Number of women in thousands .........................................................................................

Number of months:

12 ............................................... ...... ................................... ................................ ..........

18 ................ ..................................................................................................... .............

24 ..................................................................................................................................

30 ......... .........................................................................................................................

36 ................................ ....... ...................................................................... ......... ............

48 ..................................................................................................................................

60 ................................................................................................................................ ..

Number of women in thousands ..................................................... ....................................

Number of monthx

12 ..................................................................................................................................

18 .......................................................................................................... ........................

24 ............... ...................................... ........................................................ .....................

30 .................................................................................................... ..............................

36 ..................................................... .............................................................................

48 .................................................................. ................................................................

60 ..................................................... ..................... .................................... ....................

Age at third birth

3F3E-F!5

Cumulative probability of a fourth

birth since third birth

Jl-

.04 ●.06

.13 .21

.23 .34

.28 .41

.32 .46

.40 .55

.48 .63

‘.03

.09

.16

.21

.25

.33

.40

Age at fourth birth

●.01

*.05

.10

.14

.16

.20

.25

4,020 II 1,929 I 1,459 I

Cumulative probability of a fifth

birth since fourth birth

.05

.15

.24

.31

.35

.43

.47

.08

.22

.33

.41

.46

.57

.61

● .03

.10

.18

.24

.28

.33

.39

632

“.00

‘.03

*.08

‘.12

‘.14

.19

.22

Age at fifth birth

15-44 Under 29 29-33 34 years

years years years or over

1,900 II 1,008 I 609 I 281

Cumulative probability of a sixth

birth since fifth birth

*.04 ‘.06

.17 .23

.25 .36

.32 .45

.37 .51

.43 .57

.47 .61

++.03

●.10

●.14

.22

.24

.30

.35

‘.00

‘.06

“.08

*.10

●.14

*.17

●.23

lExcludes women who had a premarital birth.

NOTE: The sums of the aggregates may not add to totals due to rounding.

13
Table 2. Number of ever-married women 15-44 years of agerl end cumulative birth probabilities within first marriege, by number of

months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the sixth birth and age of the wife at first merriaga or previous

birth, by race: United States, 1973

Months since marriage or birth

Number of women in thousands ......................

.

Number of women in thousends ... ...................

Number of women in thousands ......................

lExcludes women who had a premarital birth.

White I Black

Age at first marriage

1544 Under 19 19-21 22 years 1544 Under 19 19-21 22 years

years years years or over years years years or over

25,818 9,656 10,283 5,879 2,077 1,014 664 399

Cumulative probability of a first birth since first marriage

.14 .20 .13 .07 .32 .39 .27

.36 .45 .34 .26 .48 .56 .47

.52 .62 .49 .42 .62 .70 .60

.63 .73 .59 .51 .69 .76 .70

.69 .79 .66 .58 .74 .81 .74

.74 .83 .72 .64 .78 .84 .78

.82 .88 .81 .72 .82 .88 .81

.86 .91 .85 .78 .86 .93 .85

Age at first birth

15-44 Under 21 21-23 24 years 1544 Under 21 21-23

years years years or over years years years

19,393 9,233 5,789 4,372 1,540 972 344

Cumulative probability of a second birth since first birth

Jl-

.07 .08

.22 .25

.39 .42

.53 .56

.63 .66

.76 .78

.82 .84

1544

years

14,327

.04

.16

.25

.33

.40

.49

.57

.06

.22

.39

.52

.63

.78

.84

.05

.19

.34

.46

.57

.70

.76

.14

.38

.50

.59

.66

.74

.79

.17

.44

.56

.65

.72

.79

.64

*.11

.35

.46

.58

.65

.70

.76

*.19

.39

.43

.51

.56

.62

.68

.72

24 years

or over

——

225

*.07

*.21

.29

.39

.44

.56

.60

Age at second birth

6,156 I 5,379 I 2,793 ] 1,039 II 668 I 256 I 115

Cumulative probability of a third birth since second birth

.06

.21

.31

.41

.49

.59

.67

.03

.13

.22

.29

.36

.46

.55

*.02

.09

.17

.23

.27

.33

.37

.09 *.11

.28 .30

.38 .43

.47 .54

.55 .65

.64 .75

.69 .79

*.08

*.23

.30

.33

.39

.47

.52

‘.03

*.22

.27

.34

.36

.41

.42

NOTE: The sums of the aggregates may not add to totals due to rounding.

14
Table 2. Number of ever-married women 15-44 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first merriage, by number of

months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the.sixth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or previous

birth, by race: United States, 1973–Con.

Months since marriage or birth

Number of women in thousands ......................

Number of months

12 .................................................. .............

18 ...............................................................

24 ...............................................................

30 ......... .............. ........................................

36 ...............................................................

48 ...............................................................

60 ...............................................................

Numbar of women in thousands ......................

Number of month$

12 ...... .........................................................

18 ...............................................................

24 ......... ................ ......................................

30 ...............................................................

36 ...............................................................

48 ...............................................................

60 ............................................. ..................

Numbar of women in thousands ......................

Number of months:

12 ..... ..................... .................................... .

18 ...............................................................

24 .................... ...................... .....................

30 .............. .................................................

36 ...............................................................

48 ...............................................................

60 ..... ..........................................................

fihite I Black

Age at third birth

1544 Under 25 25-29 30 years 15-44 Under 25 25-29 30 years

years yaars years or ovar years years years or over

7,812 3,116 3,480 1,216 656 425 176 55

.03

.12

.21

.26

.31

.38

.46

Cumulative probability of a fourth birth sinca third birth

*.05 “.02 “.00 ‘.09 ●.10 ●.08

.19 .08 *.03 .28 .35 *.15

.32 .16 .09 .38 .47 ‘.22

.38 .20 .13 .48 .57 .33

.43 .25 .15 .52 .61 .35

.53 .32 .19 .61 .71 .46

.61 .39 .24 .69 .77 .57

Age at fourth birth

3,567 ]] 1,629 I 1,352 I 586

‘.05

.13

.22

.28

.32

.41

.45

1544 II Under 27 I 27-31 I 32 years

JI years years years or over

412 I 287 I 94 I 31

Cumulative probability of a fifth birth since fourth birth

‘.08

.19

.30

.38

.42

.54

.58

●.03

.08

.17

.23

.27

.32

.38

‘.00

‘.03

‘.08

●.12

●.14

.19

.22

●.01

●.10

*.21

*.21

*.31

*.31

●.41

IL

*.11 *.14

.28 .34

.39 .44

.53 .61

.56 .63

.62 .70

.69 .75

‘.04

++.14

●.29

.37

.41

.46

.58

Age at fifth birth

15-44 Under 29 29-33 34 years 15-44 Under 29 29-33

years years years or over years years years

1,638 814 561 262 249 186 44

Cumulative probability of a sixth birth since fifth birth

‘.04 *.07 “.03 ‘.00

.16 .23 ●.10 “.06

.23 .35 *.14 ‘.09

.29 .41 .22 ‘.08

.34 .47 .24 ●.14

.40 .54 .30 *.16

.44 .59 .34 ●.22 !L

● .05 ‘.06

.23 .28

.39 .46

.51 .62

.55 .66

.61 .71

.67 .73

“.02

●.1O

*.17

*.21

●.22

●.29

*.57

‘.05

* .09

●.24

‘.26

*.29

*.28

*.28

34 years

or over

19

. . .

. . .

---

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

lExcludes women who had a premarital birth.

NOTE: The sums of the aggregates may not add to totals due to rounding.

15
m Table 3. Number of ever-married women 15-44 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first merriage, by number of months since first marriage or

pravious birth, by birth order through the third birth and age of the wife at first marriage or previous birth, by Hispanic origin: United States, 1973

Months since marriage or birth

Number of women in thousands ....... ...

Number of woman in thousands ..........

Number of months:

12 ...................................................

18 ...................................................

24 ................................................. ..

30 ...................................................

36 ...................................................

48 ...................................................

60 ...................................................

All origins Hispanic origin All other origins

T

15-44 Under

years 19 years

28,209 10,729

.15

.37

,53

.63

.69

.74

.82

.86

.22

.46

.63

.73

.79

.63

.88

.91

7

15-44 Under

years 21 yaars

21,151 10,264

.07 .09

.24 .27

.40 .44

.53 .57

.63 .67

.76 .78

.82 .84

19-21

years

11,004

.14

.35

.50

.60

.67

.72

.81

.85

21-23

years

6,169

.07

.22

.40

.52

.62

.77

.84

Age at first marriage

22 years 15-44 Undar 19-21 22 years 15-44 Under

or over years 19 years yaars or over years 19 years

6,477 1,855 866 560 429 26,355 9,862

Cumulative probability of a first birth since first marriage

.08

.26

.42

.51

.56

.64

.72

.78

.13

.49

.64

.76

.81

.84

.89

.92

=3= 24 years 15-44

or over years

4,717 II 1,493

.18

.52

.68

.79

.86

.90

.92

.96

*.10

.48

.64

.78

.81

.83

.91

.91

‘.09

.44

.58

.67

.70

.75

.80

.83 1

.16 .22

.36 .45

.52 .63

.62 .73

.69 .79

.74 .82

.81 .87

.85 .91

19-21

years

10,445

.14

.35

.49

.59

.66

.72

.81

.85

22 yaars

or over

6,048

.07

.25

.41

.50

.57

.63

.72

.78

Age at first birth

Under 21-23 24 years 15-44 Under 21-23 24 years

21 years years or over years 21 years years or over

821 I 397( 275 [ 19,658 II 9,443 I 5,773 I 4,442

Cumulative probability of a sacond birth since first birth

.05 .11 *.12

.19 .29 .32

.33 .48 .53

.46 .59 .62

.57 .66 .70

.69 .76 .80

.75 .81 .86

*.13

.30

.51

.67

.71

.81

.83

●.04

*.22

‘.30

.42

.51

.55

.65

.07 .08

.23 .26

.40 .43

.53 .56

.63 .66

.76 .79

.82 .84

.06

.22

.39

.51

.63

,77

.84

.05

.18

.33

.46

.57

.70

.76

lE~~l~des women who had a premarital birth.

NOTE: The sums of the aggregates may not add to totals due to rounding.
Table 3. Number of ever-married women 15-44 years of aga,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of months since first marriage or

previous birth, by birth order through the third birth and age of the wifa at first marriaga or pravious birth, by Hispanic origin: United States, 1973–Con.

Months since marriage or birth

Number of women in thousands ... .......

Number of months:

12 ........................................... ........

18 ..................... ...................... ........

24 ............... ............................. .......

30 .......................................... .........

36 ........................................... ........

48 ........................................... ........

60 ................ ..... ...................... ........

All origins Hispanic origin All other origins

Arre at second birth

I5-44

fears

5,511

.04

.16

.26

.34

.41

.50

.57

Under

23 years

6,863

.07

.22

.33

.42

.51

.61

.68

“-—.-.——.—. .

23-26 27 years 15-44 Under 23-26 27 years 15-44 Undar 23-26 27 years

yaars or over years 23 years yaars or over years 23 yaars years or over

5,659 2,989 1,000 543 326 131 14,511 6,319 5,332 2,860

Cumulative probability of a third birth since sacond birth

* .03

.14

.22

.29

.36

.46

.55

●.02

.10

.17

.24

.27

.34

.37

*.06 * .08

.24 .32

.34 .44

.44 .54

.52 .64

.59 .73

.66 .77

II

lExcludes women who had a premarital birth.

●.04

●.18

*.25

.34

.38

,43

.52

. . .

. . .

---

. . .

---

. . .

. . .Jl-

.04 .07

.16 .21

.25 .32

.33 .41

.40 .49

.50 .60

.57 .67

.03

.13

.22

.29

.36

.47

.55

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

-..

. . .

---

NOTE: The sums of the aggregates may not add to totals due to rounding.
co Table 4. Number of ever-merried women 15-44 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through tha fourth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or previous birth, by education et first marriaga: Unitad States, 1973

Educat!on at first marriage

1

All educational levels II Less than high school I

High school at first marria@? I

More than high school

at first marriage at first marriage

Months since marriage or birth

Age at first marriage

15.44 Under 19-21 22 years 15-44 Under 19-21 22 years 15.44 Under 19-21 22 years 15-44 Under

years 19 years years or over years 19 years years or over years 19 years years or over years 19 years

2a,209 10,729 11,004 6,477 8,542 6.238 1,476 828 13,116 4,108 6,380 2,629 6,551 382 T

19-21 22 years

years .or over

Number of women m thousands ... 3,149 3,020

Cumulative probability of a first birth since first marriage

1

.08

.26

.42

.51

.58

.a4

.72

.78

.23

1

.49

.64

.75

.80

.84

.87

.91

.25

.50

.66

.77

.83

.86

.90

.93

.15

.37

.53

.63

.a9

.74

.81

.86

.22

.48

.63

.73

.79

.83

.88

.91

.14

.35

.50

.60

.67

.72

.81

.85

.19

11

.14 .14

.47 .39 .3a

.62 .53 .53

.72 .61 .a3

.76 .66 .89

.80 .71 .74

.84 .75 .82

.87 .81 .86

.19

.39

.59

.68

.75

.79

.85

.89

.14

.37

.52

.63

.70

.74

.83

.87

.08

.29

.47

.55

.al

.67

.75

,79 1

.08

.24

.38

.48

55

.63

.73

,79

‘.1O

.41

.58

.10

.26

.39

.48

.55

.64

.7a

.81

—

‘ .06

20

.35

44

.52

.59

.69

.76

.64

.71

.75

.a2

.84

—

Age at first birth

15-44

years

21,151

15-44 Under 21-23 24 years

years 21 vears vears or over -1- Under 21-23

21 years years

15-44

years

Number of women 9,962 $,328 II 620 I 1,747 I 1,960 in thousands ... 10,264 ! 6,169

of a second birth since first birth

.07

.24

.40

.53

.63

.7a

.82

.09

.27

.44

.57

.67

.78

.84

.07

.22

.40

.52

.63

.17

.05

.19

.33

.46

.57

.69

.75

.09

.27

.44

.56

.66

.77

.83

.10 ‘.08 ‘

.29 .24

.47 .39

.59 .52

.69 .61

.80 .75

.85 .81

‘.04 .07

.17 .23

.27 .39

.40 .51

.48 .62

.a4 .76

.71 .82

.08 .07

.24 .23

.41 .39

.55 .50

.65 .62

.77 .76

.84 .83

‘.05

.19

.35

.46

.58

.68

.74

.06

.20

.37

.51

.62

.77

.81

●.05

.21

.38

.50

.61

.74

.76

“.06 ‘.05

.20 .18

.41 .33

.55 .48

.67 .58

.82 .73

.84 .86 .78

1Excludes women WIIO had a premarital birth.

NOTE: The sums of the aggregates may not mid to totals due to rounding.
Table 4. Number of ever-married women 1544 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the fourth birth and age of the wife at first marriaga or previous birth, by education at first marriage: United States, 1973-Con.

Education at first marriage

All educatmnal levels Less than h!gh school High school at first marriage More than high xhool

at first marriage at first marriage

Age at second birth

15-44 Under 23-26 27 years 15-44 Under 23-26 27 years 15-44 Undar 23-26 27 yeara

years

15-44 Under

23 years

23-26 27 years

years or over years 23 years years or over years 23 yeara years or over years 23 years years or over

15,511 6,863 5,659 2,989 5,143 3,661 967 475 7,302 2,782 3,091 1,429 3,066 399 1,581 1,086

Months $mce marriage or b~rth

Number of women m thousands ...

Cumul Weprot

‘.05

.17

.24

.29

.35

.44

.52

Iity of a

●.05

●.1 1

.20

.23

.28

.37

.42

d birth ainca second birth

J

.03

.13

.22

.30

.37

.49

.58

“ .02 .07 .08

.10 .22 .25

.17 .33 .37

.24 .40 .46

.27 .48 .55

.34 .57 .63 J_ .37 .63 .69

.04 .07

.16 .22

.26 .33

.34 .42

.41 .51

.50 .61

.57 .66

● .03

.14

.22

.29

.36

.46

.55

“.05 “ .02

.12

.21

.27

.36

.47

.55

‘.01

“.07

.15

.22

.25

.33

.37

“.02

.14L

9.03

●.16

.27

.45

.49

.58

.61

“.03

.15

.25

.32

.37

.47

.56

‘.ot

.13

.20

.26

.30

.33

.35

.18

.28

.37

.46

.23

.32

.37

.58

.67

.44

.50

—

Age at third birth

25-29 30 years 15.44 Under 25-29 30 years 15-44 Under

years or over years 25 years years or over years 26 years

30 years

or over

25-29

years

Number of women in thousands ... 867 I 312 I 3,939 II 1,330 ] 1,948 I 661 I 1,407 II 215 857

“.01

“.09

.19

.24

.32

.38

.40

335

“.02

● .06

●.15

‘.19

“.20

‘.25

.28

Cumulative probability of a fourth birth since third birth

1

.04

.13

.23

.28

.32

.40

.48

“ .06

.21

.34

.41

.46

.55

.63 1

● .03

.09

.16

.21

.25

.33

.40 1

“.01

“.05

.to

.14

.16

.20

.25

.05

.19

.30

.35

.40

.49

.57 Ill“.07

.25

.36

.45

.50

.60

.67

● .03

‘.10

.17

.22

.25

.34

.43

‘.01

‘ .06

“.13

●.14

.20

.25

.32 1

“.03

.10

.19

.23

.27

.34

.43 1

“.04

.17

.29

.36

.40

.50

.60

“ .03

‘ .08

.15

.19

“.00

● .02

“.07

●.11

“.13

.15

.19 1

“.01

‘ .08

.19

.23

.29

.36

.39

“ .00

“.1 1

●.21

●.26

‘.33

.43

.50

.23

.30

.39

lE.KIWM WWIK.” whu had a premarital birIh.

NOTE: The sums uf the uggrtigates MAY not add tu tutols due tu rmmding.

a
h)

o

Table 5. Number of ever-married white women 15-44 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by numk of months since first marriage or

previous birth, by birth order through the fourth birth and age of tha wife at first marriage or previous birth, by education at first marriage: United States, 1973

,.

Education at first marriage

All educational levels Less than high school High school More than high school

at first marriage at first marriage at first marriage

Months since marrtage or birth

.

Age at first marriage

15-44 Under 19-21 22 years 15-44 Under 19-21 22 years 15-44 Under 19-21 22 years

years 19 years years or over years 19 years years or over years 19 years years or over

25,818 9,656 10,283 5,879 7,529 5,556 1,279 684 12,184 3,769 6,005 2,409

Cumulative probability of a first birth since first marriage

Number of women in thousands ...

A

.14

.36

.52

.63

.69

.74

.82

.86 I--n

.21

.48

.64

.75

.80

.84

.88

.91 L

“.11 .13 .17

.39 .38 .38

.53 .53 .58

.61 .63 .68

.66 .69 .74

.70 .74 .78

.75 .82 .85

.81 .86 .88

.20 .13 I ‘.07

.46

.62

.73

.79

.83

.88

.91

.13

.34

.49

.59

.66

.72

.81

.85

.07

.26

.42

.51

.58

.64

.72

.78

.23

.49

.66

.78

.83

.86

.90

.93

.18 .07

.23

.37

.47

.54

.62 II

“.04 .09

.37 .24

.56 .38

.62 .47

.71 .64

.74 .63

.82 .75

.84 80

‘.05

.20

.35

.44

.51

58

.68

76

.47

.62

.72

.36 ,29

.52 .47

.62 .56

.76 .70 .62

.80

.85

.87 -L.74 .68

.83 .76

87 .80

.73

.78

Age at first birth

T

21.23 24 years

years or over

6,788 4,372

16.44

years

Under

21 years

15-44

years

Under 21-23 24 years I

15-44II Under I

21-23 24 years

21 years years or over years 21 years years or over

24 years

or over

Number of women in thousands ... 19,393 9,233 6,077 4,711 I 804 I 562 I 9,300 II 3,994 I 3,324 I 1,983 4,018 II 529 i 1,660 1,827

‘.05

.18

.33

.48

.58

.74

.79

Cumulative probability of a second birth since first birth

.06 .05 .08

.22 .19 .25

.39 .34 .42

.52 .46 .66

.63 .57 .64

.78 .70 .77

.84 .76 ,83

.09 ‘ .08 ‘.04

.26 .23 .17

.45 .38 .27

.67 .60 .40

.67 .60 .48

.79 .75 .62

.85 .81 .69

.07

.22

.39

.51

.63

.75

.82

.07

.23

.40

.55

.65

.77

.84

.06

.22

.38

.50

.62

.76

.83

‘.05

.20

.36

.47

.58

.69

.75

.05

.19

.07

.22

.39

.53

.63

.76

.82

.08

.25

.42

.56

‘.03

.20

.38

.51

.63

.77

.79

‘.06

.20

.42

.56

.67

.83

.87

.38

.52

.66

.78

.63

.78

.84 .82

1 Excludes women who hdd a premarital birth.

NOTE: The sums of the aggregates may not add to totals due to rounding.
Table 5. Number of ever-married white women 15-44 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of months since first marriage or

previous birth, by birth order through the fourth birth end age of tha wife at first marriage or previous birth, by education at first marriage: Unitad States, 1973–Con.

Mcmths sinca marriage or birth

Educatmn at first marriaw

All educational levels Less than high school High school More than high school

at first marriage at first marriage at first marriage

T

15-44 Under

years 23 years

4,327 6,156

1

.04 .06

.16 .21

.25 .33

.33 .41

.40 .49

.49 .59

.57 .67

Aoe at second birth

27 years 15-44 Under 23-26 27 years 15-44 Under 23-26

or over years 23 years years or over years 23 years years

2,793 4,573 3,241 914 419 6,863 2,561 2,944

23-26

years

5,379

.03

.13

.22

.29

.36

.46

.55

Number of women in thousands...

Cumulatwe probability of a third bhth since second birth

J

‘.02

.09

.17

.23

.27

.33

.37

.07

.21

.31

.38

.46

.55

.62 J

.03

.13

.22

.30

.37

.46

.56

.08

.24

.36

.44

.53

.61

.68

‘.04

.16

.22

.28

.33

.43

.50

“.05

u

“.02 “.02 “.03 “.01

●.09 .14 ‘.14 .15 .13

●.18 .23 ●.25 .25 .19

“.22 .31 .43 .32 .25

.25 .36 .48 .38 .30

.33 .44 .57 .47 .32

.40 .50 .59 .56 .34

Age at third birth

‘ .05

.18

.27

.36

.45

● .02

.12

.20

.27

.36

.47

.56

“.01

‘.06

.15

.22

.25

.33

.37

.56

.66

==I=I== 25-29

years

30 years 15.44 Under 25-29 30 years

or over years 25 years years or over

15-44 II Under I

25-29

years 25 years years --11-- 30 years 15-44

or over years

Number of women m thousands... 7,612 I 3,116 I 3,480 1,216 II 2,783 1,728 I 773 I 281 3,701 II 1,202 1,672 628 I 1,328 II 186 I 835] 307

Cumulative probability of a fourth birth sinca third birth

-L

.03 “ .05

.12 .19

.21 .32

.26 .36

.31 .43

.38 53

.46 .61 1

“.02

.08

.16

.20

.25

.32

.39

“ .00 ‘ .04

‘.03 .17

.09 .27

.13 .33

.15 .37

.19 .47

.24 .54 l-l “.06 ●.01

.22 ● .09

.35 ‘.15

.42 .19

.47 .22

.5a .31

.65 .40

‘.01

‘.05

‘.10

‘.12

“.18

‘.23

●.30 1

‘.03

.09

.18

.23

.27

.33

.42

●.04

.16

.28

.35

.40

.46

.56 l-l “.03 ‘.00

.08 “.02

.15 ● .07

.19 ‘.11

.23 ●.13

.30 ●.15

.38 .19

‘.01

● .08

.18

.22

,28

.35

.38 II--l “.00

● .09

●.21

●.23

“.32

.42

.47

“.01 ‘ .00

.09 ‘.04

.20 ‘.13

30 ............................................ .23 ‘.17

36 . ...........................................

-H 46 ............................................

60 ............................................

lFxcludes women who had a premarital birth.

NOTE: The sums uf the q+gregccttisma! nut add to totals d“e t“ rcj”ndins.

N
Table 6. Number of ever-married black women 15-44 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of months since first marriage or

previous birth, by birth order through the third birth and aga of the wife at first marriage or previous birth, by education at first marriaga: Unitad States, 1973

Months since marriage or birth

Education at first marriage

All educational levels Less than high school High school More than high school

at first marriage at first marriage at first marriage

Age at first marriage

15-44 Under 19-21 22 years 15-44 Under 19-21 22 years 15-44 Under 19-21 22 years

years 19 years years or over years 19 years years or over years 19 years years or over

Number 2,077 1,014 664 399 904 642 174 88 847 326 353 168 of women In thousands ...

Cumulative probability of a first bhth since first marr!age

.36 .40 “.23

.53 .56 .41

.67 .71 .59

.74 .76 .71

.78 .81 .75

.8o .84 .76

.84

32

.48

.62

.69

.74

.78

.82

.86

.39

.56

.70

.76

.81

.84

.88

.93

.27

.47

.60

.70

.74

.78

.81

.85

‘.19

.31

.43

.51

.56

.62

.68

.72

.29

.46

.60

.29

.47

.58

.67

.72

.77

.81

.84

“.18

.35

.46

.50

.55

.57

.66

.71

.26

,43

.54

.64

.70

.77

79

.81 L

.31 “.13

.53 “.23

.66 .33

.76 .47

.80 .56

.81 .6e

.83 .71

.85 ,73

‘.27

.37

.52

.58

.58

.63

.68

.69

.36

.50

.69

.74

.81

.83

.90

.92

‘ ,48

.73

.80

.83

,.e4

.89

.90

,90

.66

.72

.75

.87 .81

.93 .86

.81

.90 II .84

II I

Age at first birth

ZFF=

15-44 TFI 5-44 Under 21-23

fears 21 years years

705 553 95

15-44

years years

Number of women 87 72 78 in thousands ... 1,540 57 I 598 332 I 1761 91 237

Cumulative probability of a second birth since first birth

.18 .20

.47 .62

.59 .63

.71 .74

.77 .80

.83 .86

.85 .87

.14 .17

.38 .44

.50 .56

.59 .65

.66 .72

.14 .79

.79 .84

●.11

.35

.46

.58

.65

.70

.76

“.07

‘.21

.29

.39

.44

.56

.60

‘.14 ‘.07 ‘.12 ●.14 ‘.12 “.05

.33 ●.22 .34 .35 .41 “.17

.51 ‘.32 .44 .47 .51 ●.22

.74 ‘ .36 .53 .56 .57 .37

.76 .50 .61 .66 .65 .39

.60 .69 .72 .78 .72 .48

.80 .71 .78 .86 .78 .54

‘ .09

‘.25

.34

.41

.46

.51

.60

“.12

“.25

.38

.39

.42

.46

.54

“.05

“.25

‘ .29

.40

.51

.52

.67

“.09

‘.24

“.34

,43

.46

.56

.61

ll?xcludes women whu hada premmitd birth.

NOTE: Thesums of theaSgregJtes maynotml dtotuvd sduetorcmnding.
Table6. Number of ever-married black women 1544 years of ege, 1 and cumulative birth probatilitias within first marriage, by number of months ShCr3 fitW MrNrb9a or

previous birth, by birth order through the third birth and age of the wife at first marriaga or pravious birth, by education at first marriaga: United States, 1973–Con.

Months since marriage w birth

Number of women in thousands...

Education at first marriage

All educational levels Less than high school High school More than high school

at first marriage at first marriage at first marriage

T

15.44 Under

years 23 years

1,039 668

J-

.09 “.11

.28 .30

.38 .43

.47 .54

.55 .65

.64 .75

.69 .79

Age at s?cond birth

23-26 27 years 15-44 Under 23.26 27 years 15-44 Under 23-26 27 years

years or over years 23 years yaars or over years 23 years years or over

256 115 511 411 69 ●3O 394 222 131 42

Cumulative pralxbility of a third birth since second birth

“.08

1

●.23

.30

.33

.39

.47

.52

● .03

“.22

.27

.34

.36

.41

.42

●.12

.34

.46

.57

.68

.76

.79

“.12 ‘.12

.34 ‘.30

.47 ‘.40

.60 .43

.71 .59

.79 .64

.82 .76

...

...

...

...

...

...

... 1

‘.07

.22

.33

.37

.44

.54

.59

‘.08

“.24

.38

.43

.53

.67

.74

‘.08

“.21

“.27

.31

.32

.36

.39

“.02

“.17

“.24

“.28

‘ .30

●.34

●.36

F

15-44 Under

years 23 years

134 35

1

“.04 ‘.07

●.21 ●.33

“.26 ●.38

.37 “.57

.36 .59

.50 .69

.54 .79

23-26

years

56

“.02

●.16

●.23

●.28

●.31

.54

.56

27 years

or over

43

“.03

“.17

●.19

“.30

+.30

“ .36

●.38

lhcludes women who had a prtmmitd birth.
Table 7. Number of ever-married women 1544 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of 

months since first marriage or previous birth, by berth order through the sixth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or previous 

birth, by farm and nonfarm origin: United States, 1973 

Months smce marriage or btrth 

Number of women m thousands... 

All ong,“r Farm ongm I Nonfarm ortgm 

Age at first marriage 

15-44 Under 19-21 22years 1544 Under 19-21 22years 15.44 Under 19-21 22years 

years 19 years years or over years 19 years years or over years 19 years years or over 

28,209 10,729 11,004 6.477 6,965 3,118 2,460 1,388 21,245 7,611 8,544 5,089 

Cumulatwe probability of a first bwth smce first marriage 

.14 .07 

.34 .24 

49 40 

.59 48 

.66 .56 

.72 .62 

.81 .70 

.85 .77 

Number of months: 

7 .............................................. 

12 ............................................ 

18 ............................................ 

24 ............................................ 

30 ............................................ 

36 ............................................ 

48 ............................................ 

60 ............................................ 

.08 .17 

.26 42 

42 .61 

.I6 II .24 

.37 47 

.52 .64 

.I5 

.37 

.53 

.63 

.69 

.74 

.82 

.86 

.14 

38 

.53 

.63 L .68 

.73 

.81 24 

.09 

.33 

.52 

.60 

.65 

.71 

.78 

.81 

.51 .72 

.58 .79 

.62 .74 

.68 .79 

.74 2x4 

.81 .88 

.86 .92 

f 

.st birth 

f 

Age at first birth 

1544 Under 21-23 24years 15.44 Under 21-23 24years 

years 21 years years or over years 21 years years or over 

21,151 10,264 6,169 4,717 5,548 3,020 1.441 1,086 

Cumulatwe probability of a second birth smce fil 

Number of women I” thousands... 

Number of months: 

12 ............................................ 

18.. .......................................... 

24 ............................................ 

30 ............................................ 

36 ............................................ 

48 ............................................ 

60 ............................................ 

.07 .09 

.2440 (I .27 44I “.wl 

.I9 

.31 

44 

.52 

.63 

.72 

.08 .09 

.24 .27 

40 42 

.53 .55 :I .63 .65 

.76 .77 

.82 .83 

.07 *.05 

.23 .18 

40 .34 

.53 47 

.65 .58 

.78 .71 -L .84 .76 

I II II I 

Age at second birth 

15-44 Under 23-26 27years 15-44 Under 23-26 27years 15-44 Under 23-26 27years 

years 23years years or over years 23 years years or over years 23years years or over 

15.511 6,863 5,659 2,989 4,206 2,159 1,303 744 11,305 4,703 4,356 2,245 

Cumulatwe probability of a third bnth smce second birth 

Number of warnen m thousands... 

Number of months: 

12 ............................................ 

18 ............................................ 

24 ............................................ 

30 ............................................ 

36 ............................................ 

48 ............................................ 

60 ............................................ 

I .04 

.16 

.26 

.33 

40 

.04 

.16 

.26 

.34 

.07 

.22 

I '.03 

.14 

.33 .22 

42 .29 

I l .02 

.lO 

.17 

.24 

.07 '.03 

.22 .14 

.32 .22 

42 .29 

.50 .36 

.60 48 

.67 .56 

I ".02 

.lO 

.05 l .06 *.04 ‘.Ol 

.16 .21 .I4 l .07 

.27 .33 .23 .I6 

.35 42 .29 .23 

42 .52 .34 .27 

.51 .62 43 .36 

.59 .70 .50 41 

I .18 

.24 

.27 

I .50 

.57 I .33 

.36 

lExcludrs women who had a premarital bsth. 

NOTE: The sums of the aggregates may not add to totals due to rounding. 

24 
Table 7. Number of aver-married woman 15-44 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of

months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the sixth birth and age of the wife at first marri~e or previous

birth, by farm and nonfarm origin: United States, 1973–Con.

All origins II Farm origin Nonfarm origin

Age at third birth Months since marriage or bhth

25-29 30 years 15-44 Under 25-29 30 years 1544 Under

years or over years 25 years years or over years 25 years T 3,672 1,307 2,514 1,195 909 410 6,021 2,360

1544 Under

years 25 years

8,534 3,555

25-29 30 years

years or over

Number of women in thousands ... 2.763 I 697

Cumulative pmbab!lity of a fourth broth since third b!rth

1

.04 ‘.06

.13 .21

.23 .34

.28 .41

.32 .46

.40 .55

.48 .63

“ .03

.09 I ~::II ●:HII “% ‘ .03 “.00 .03

.08 ‘.02 .12

.77 .11 .22

.23 .16 .26

.27 .20 .31

.34 .25 .39

.43 .28 .46 L

● .03 .01

.09 “.05

.16 “.1O

.20 ●.12

.25 .14

.32 .17

.39 .23

“.05

.20

.32

.39

.45

.54 w .63

I I

Age at fourth broth

32 years 1544 Under 27-31 32 years 1544 Under 27-31

or over years 27 years

32 years

years or over years 27 years years or over

41---

15-44 Under

years 27 years

4,020 1,929

27-31

years

Number of women in thousends... 1,459 632111.25611 679 I 401 I 176 I 2,76411 1,250 I 1,058 I 456

Cumulative probability of a f!fth brrth since fourth birth

.05

.15

.24

.31

.35

.43

.47

.09

.22

.33

.41

● .03 “.00

+.03

● .08

●.12

.14

.19

.22

“.06

.78

.28

.34

.38

.46

.52

‘.08

.22

.35

.44

.47

.58

.64

●.05

●.14

“.20

‘.25

.30

,35

.40

‘.01

●.11

“.18

“.18

“.18

“.21

“.26 1

“.05

.13

.22

.29

.33

.41

.45

.09

.22

.31

.40

.45

.56

.59

“.02

“ .08

.18

.24

.28

.33

.39

“ .00

“.00

● .05

‘.10

●.13

“.19

●.21

.10

.18

.24

.46

.57

.61

.28

.33

.39

Age at f!fth birth

15-44 Under 29-33 34 years 1544 Under 29-33 34 years 15-44 Under 29-33 34 years

years 29 years years or over years 29 years years or over years 29 years years or over

Number of woman m thousands... 1,9C0 1,009 609 ●282 630 374 164 “92 1,270 636 445 189

Cumulative probabllny of a sixth birth since fifth b!rth

1

‘.04

.17

.25

.32

.37

.43

.47 1

“.06

.23

.36

.45

.51

.57

.61 1

‘ .03

●.1O

“.14

.22

.24

.30

.35

“.03 .00

“.11 .08

‘.13 .09

‘.22 .G9

“.24 .09

.29 .14

.32 .23

“ .08

.24

,34

.42

.48

.56

.60

1 f?xciudes women who had a premarital birth.

NOTE: The sums of the aggregates may not add to totals due to rounding.

25
Table 8. Number of ever-married white women 1544 years of age,l and cumulative brrth probabilities withrn first marrrage, by number 

of months since first marriage or prevrous brrth, by brrth order through the fifth birth and age of the wife at first marrrage or prevrous brrth, by farm and nonfarm origrn: United States, 1973 

All ongms Farm or~gm Nonfarm ongm 

Months smce mawage or birth Age at first mawage 

15.44 Under 19-21 22years 15.44 Under 19-21 22years 15-44 Under 19.27 22yearr 

years 19years years or over years 19 years years or over years 19 years years or over 

Number of women m thousands... Z5.818 9,656 10,283 5,879 6,227 2,770 2,228 1,229 19,591 6,886 8,055 4,650 

Cumulatwe probabdity of a first birth s!nce first mawage 

Number of months: 

7 .............................................. 

12 ............................................ 

18 ............................................ 

24 ............................................ 

30 ............................................ 

36 ............................................ 

48 ............................................ 

60 ............................................ 

.14 .20 

.36 45 

.52 II .62 

.13 .07 

.34 .26 

49 42 

.59 .51 

.66 .58 

.72 .64 

.81 .72 

.85 .78 

*.08 

.33 

.53 

.62 

.66 

.71 

.79 

.81 

2: II 2 .I3 .07 .33 .24 

48 .39 

.58 48 

.65 .55 

.72 .62 

.81 .71 

.85 .78 

.51 (I .63 

.61 .73 

.68 .79 

.63 II .73 

.69 .79 

.74 .83 .74 II .84 

.82 Ii .88 .81 .88 

.85 -iILL 

Age at first birth 

w 

4,972 11 2,691 1 1,316 

15-44 

years 

24years 

or O"er “““j ;zqj2zq:‘.“:~‘,“,‘d.“b: 

Number of women on thousands... 19,393 9,233 I 5,789 4.372 965 1 14,421 11 6,542 1 4,472 1 3,407 

Cumulatw probability of a second barth smce first birth 

Number of months: 

12 ............................................ 

18 ............................................ 

24 ............................................ 

30 ............................................ 

36 ............................................ 

48 ............................................ 

60 ............................................ 

.07 II .08 1 .06 .05 

.I9 

.34 

46 

.57 

.70 

.76 

.22 .25 .22 :;; 11 ‘:ii 1 ‘IfI ( ‘Ii; 1 :;a 11 :;g ) :$a 1 Tj 

.39 

II 

42 

I 

.39 

.53 .56 .52 

.63 .66 .63 $11 ::Fj 1 ,288 1 2: I :::II 2 I :z I .“,i 

.76 

/I 

.78 

I 

.78 

.82 .84 .84 :;: 11 :E 1 :z ( :z ( 2; (I :;: 1 2; ( ::x 

I, I II I I I II I I 

Age at second birth 

15-44 Under 23-26 27years 15.44 Under 23-26 27years 15.44 Under 23-26 27years 

pXS 23years years or over YCSTS 23years years or over -+SXl 23years years or over 

Number of women m thousands... 14,327 6,156 5.379 2.793 3,792 1,902 1,209 681 10,535 4,254 4,170 2,112 

Cumulatwe probability of a third birth since second birth 

Number of months: 

1 z............................................ 

18............................................ :z II :E I :Y,” 

24............................................ .25 .31 .22 

30............................................ .33 41 .29 

36............................................ 40 49 .36 

48.......................................... 49 .59 46 

60............................................ .57 .67 .55 

ll<xcludrs women who had a premarital birth. 

NOT-Ii: The sums of the aggregates may not add to totals due to r‘ 

c.02 

.09 

.I7 

.23 

.27 

.33 

.37 

II ‘:K II :Y,” '.03 l .01 .04 .06 '.03 '.02 

.I3 x.05 .16 .21 .13 .I0 

.22 .I4 .25 .32 .22 .I8 

.28 .21 .33 41 .29 .24 

.34 .25 40 49 .36 .27 

42 .33 .50 .60 48 .32 

.50 .39 .57 .66 .56 .36 

.25 .31 

.33 40 

40 49 

49 .59 

.57 .68 

26 
Table 8. Number of ever-married white women 1544 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number

of months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the fifth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or previous birth, by farm and nonfarm origin: United States, 1973—Con.

Months since marriage or birth

Number of women in thousands ...

Number of women in thousands ...

All origins II Farm origin I

Nonfarm origin

m

u- ,03 ‘.05 “ .02

.12 .19 .08

.21 .32 .16

.26 .38 .20

.31 .43 .25

.38 .53 .32

.46 .61 .39

Age at third birth

30 years 15-44 Under 25-29 30 years 15-44 Under 25-29

or over years 25 years years or over years 25 years years

1,216 2,214 1,o18 826 370 5,598 2,098 2,654

Cumulatwe probabdny of a fourth btrth since thmd birth

J

‘.00

“ .03

,09

.13

.15

.19

.24 1

“ .04

.13

,23

.29

.33

.42

.49 1

“.07

.21

.33

,40

.43

.54

.62 u-l

“ .02 “.00 .03

.08 “.02 .11

,16 ●.1O .21

.22 “,16 ,25

.26 “.19 .30

.34 “.25 .37

.42 .28 .44

“.04

.18

.31

,37

.44

.52

.61

“ .02

.08

.18

.19

.24

.32

.38

30 years

or over

846

‘.00

“ .04

‘.09

‘.11

.13

.17

.22

Age at fourth broth

1544 Under 27-31 32 years 15-44 Under 27-31 32 years 15-44 Under 27-31

years 27 years

32 years

years or over years 27 years years or over years 27 years years or over

3,567 1,629 1,352 586 1,057 542 358 158 2,511 1,087 994 429

Cumulatwe pro!xbdisy of a fifth birth since fourth b!rth

‘.05

.13

.22

.28

.32

.41

.45

● .06 “.03 . . . “.04 “.05 “.05 --- “ .05 .09 ●.02

.19 .09 ---

. . .

.14 .17 ●.12 --- ,12 .21 “.08 . . .

.30 .17 --- ,25 .31 “.18 --- .21 .30 .17 . . .

.38 .23 --- .30 .39 ●.22 --- .27 .37 .24 . . .

.42 .27 --- .34 .42 “.27 --- .31 .42 .28 . . .

.54 .32 --- .43 .54 .33 --- .40 .54 .32 . . .

.58 .38 --- .48 .60 .37 --- .44 .57 .38 . . .

1l:xcj”des WWIM who had a premarital birth.

NOTE: The sums of’ the aggregates may not add to totals due to ruundins.

27
Table 9. Number of ever-married black women 1544 years of aga,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number

of months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the fifth birth and age of the wife et first marriage or previous birth, by farm and nonfarm origin: United States, 1973

Months since marriage Or birth

All origins Farm origin Nonfarm origin

Age at first marriage

15-44 Under 19-21 22 years 15-44 Under 19-21 22 years 15-44 Under 19-21 z:! y~ars

years 19 years years or over years 19 years years or over years 19 years years or over

Number of women in thousands... 2,077 1,014 664 399 679 335 224 120 1,398 679 440 279

Cumulative probabllmy of a first birth since first marriage

J-

.32 .39

,46 .56

.62 .70

.69 .76

.74 ,81

.78 ,84

.82 .88

.86 .93

.27

.47

.60

.70

.74

.78

.81

.85

“,19

.31

,43

.51

.56

.62

.68

.72 J

.30

.45

.58

.65

.72

.75

.79

.85 J--l

.36 .27

.52 .42

.64 .56

.71 .66

.80 .71

.83 .72

.85 .78

.92 .82

Age at first birth

“.19

.32

.46

.50

.54

.58

.66

.69 -L

,32 .41

.50 ,58

.84 .74

.71 .79

.75 ,81

.79 ,83

.84 ,90

.87 .93

.27

.49

.62

.72

.76

.81

.83

.86

‘,18

.31

,42

.52

.57

.64

.69

.73

24 years 15-44 Under 21-23 24 years 15-44 Under 21-23 24 years

or over years 21 years years or over years 21 years years or over

Number of women in thousands... 225 520 317 121 82 1,021 655 223 143

Cumulative probability of a second birth since first birth

.14 ,17 “.11

38 .44 .35

49 ,56 .46

59 .65 .58

‘ .07 “.16 .21 “.10

‘.21 .41 .51 .30

.29 .54 .65 ,49

.39 .64 .74 .62

.44 .71 .80 .72

.56 .77 .84 .79

.60 .82 .88 .87

‘.07

“.17

‘.23

‘.31

.35

.49

.51

.13 .15 “.12

.37 .40 .38

.47 .51 .44

.57 .60 .55

.63 .67 .60

“,06

‘.23

.33

.44

.50

.6o

.66

.72 I

.77 .63

78 II .84 I .7 .77 .82 .68

Age at second birth

I 5.44 Under 23-26 27 years 1544 Under 23.26 27 years 1544 Under 23-26

years 23 years

27 years

years or over years 23 years years or over years 23 years years or over

Number of women in thousands.., I ,039 668 256 115 373 253 85 35 666 415 171 80

Cumulative probability of a third birth since second birth

.09 ‘.11

.26 .30

.38 .43

.47 .54

.55 .65

,64 .75

.69 .79

“.08

‘.23

.30

.33

.39

,47

,52

“ .09

“.28

‘ .33

.39

.44

.53

.55

“.04

* .29

* .34

* .34

‘.35

‘ .40

“.40

‘.08

.24

.36

.45

.53

.60

,65

“.10

.27

.41

.55

.62

.69

.75

‘.07 ‘ .02

“.20 “.19

.28 “.24

.30 “.34

,37 .36

.43 ,42

.51 .44

.27 .43 .47

.34 .51 .67

.36 .6o .69

.41 .72 .83

,42 .75 .86

1Excludes women who had a premarital birth.

NOTI?: The sums of the aggregates may not add to totals due to rounding.

28
Table 9. Number of ever-married black women 15-44 yaars of aga,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number

of months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the fifth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or previous birth, by ferm and nonfarm origin: United States, 1973–Con.

Months since marriage or birth

Number of women in thousands...

Number of women in thousands ...

All origins Farm origin Nonfarm origin

Age at third birth

1544 Under 25-29 30 years 7544 Under 25-29 30 years 15-44 Undar

25 years

25-29

years years or over years 25 years years or over years 25 years years

656 425 176 55 269 172 79 18 387 252 97

Cumulative probability of a fourth birth sinca third birth

‘.09 ●.1O “.08 --- ●.O9 “.09 ●.1O . . .

‘.09 +.1,1 “.06

.28 .35 ●.15 . . .

.29 .35 ‘.16 -.. .27

.38 .47

.35

●.22

“.14

. . .

.43 .51 ●.27 --- .35

.48 .57

.44 ‘.18

.33 --- .53 .63 ‘.30 . . .

.45

.52 .81

.52

.35 ---

.33

.58 .68 ●.33 .-. .49

.61 .71

.56 .36

.46 --- .64 .74 .45 ---

.69

.59

.77

.69 .46

.57 --- .73 .80 .56 --- .67 .75 .57

m●.1 1

.28

.39

.53

.56

.62

.69

●.14

.34

.44

.61

.63

.70

.75

30 years

or over

38

. . .

. . .

.-.

-..

. . .

---

. . .

Age at fourth birth

Under 27-31 32 years 1544 Un&r 27-31 32 years

27 years years or over years 27 years years or over

I 33 44 8 227 154 50 23

Cumulative probability of a fifth birth sinca fourth birth

● .04 . . .

●.14 . . .

*.29 ---

.37 ---

.41 ---

.46 ---

.58 ---

“.1 7

.37

.46

.58

.61

.68

.73

‘.21 ● .04

.42 “.24

.51 ‘.40

.62 .53

.65 .53

.73 .57

.76 .64

. . .

. . .

. . .

.. .

.. .

.. .

+X6

‘.21

.33

.49

,52

.58

,65

“.08

.2.s

.38

.59

.61

.68

.73

‘ .04

+.07

●.21

●.23

●,31

“ ,37

.53

..-

...

. ..

. ..

. . .

.. .

. . .

lI?xcludes women who had a premarital birth.

NOTE: The sums of the aggregates may not add to t~tds due to rounding.

.

29
Table 10. Numbar of ever-married white women 15-44 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the sixth birth and age of the wife at first marriage or

previous birth, by religious preference: United States, 1973

Months since marrtage or bwth

Number of wmnwn tn thousands .,.

Number of women in thousands...

Number of women in thousands ...

All rellg#on$2

II

Protestant

I

Cathol!c

Age at f!rst marriage

15.44 Under 19-21 22 years 1544 Under 19-21 22 years 15-44 Under 19-21 22 years

years 19 years years or over years 19 years years or over years 19 years years or over

25,818 9,656 10,283 5,879 16,352 7,036 6,349 2,967 7,827 2,110 3,332 2,3S5

Cumulatwe probabslitv of a frost b!rth since first marriage

.14

.36

.52

.63

.69

.74

.82

.86

.20

.45

.62

.73

.79

.83

.88

.91

.13

,34

.49

,59

,66

72

.81

.85

.07

.26

.42

.51

.58

,64

72

,78

.14 ,19 .13

.35 .43 .32

.50 .60 .46

.61 .71 .57

.68 .78 .64

.73 .82 .70

.81 .87 .79

.85 .90 .84

“.07

.21

.35

.46

.5t

.56

.69

.76

.15

.42

.60

.69

.75

.79

.86

.88

.25

.51

.70

.81

.85

.88

,92

.95

~ —.

Age at first birth

1544 Under 21.23 24 years 15-44 Under 21-23 24 years

21 years

15-44

years years or over years 21 years years or over years

19,393 II 9,233 ! 5,789 I 4,372 II 12,280 II 6,440 I 3,359 I 2,481 j 6,o8O

Cumulative probability of a second birth since first birth

-L

.07 .08

.22 .25

.39 .42

.53 .56

.63 .66

.78

:i; .84

.06 .05 .06 .07 .04 +.04

.22 .19 .20 .24 .17 .!4

,39 .34 .37 .41 .34 .30

,52 .46 .50 .54 .46 .44

.63 ,57 .60 .64 .59 .53

.78 ,70 .74 .76 .75 .67

.84 ,76 .81 .83 .82 .73

Age at second birth

.09

.28

.46

.59

.70

.81

.86

.14

.42

.59

,67

.73

.78

.86

.89

=$Under 21-23

21 years years

2,427 I 2,!03

.10

.28

.48

.61

.73

.83

.88

.11

.30

.50

.63

.72

.83

.88

“.07

.34

.53

.62

.69

.74

.79

.83

.—

.—

24 years

uorover

.—

1,551

.06

.25

.39

.48

.61

,74

.80

15-44 Under 23-26 27 years 15-44 Under 23-26 27 years 15-44 Under 23-26

years 23 years years or over years 23 years yaars or over years 23 years years

14,327 6,156 5,379 2,793 9,005 4,197 3,135 1,672 4,642 1,757 1,960

Cumulative probability of a third birth since second birth

.04 .06 .03 “.02 .03 .05 “.02 “.02 .06 .10 “ .04

.16 .21 .13 .09 .13 .18 .10 .07 .21 .29 .t9

,25 .31 .22 .17 .23 .29 .18 .14 .31 .39 .29

.33 .41 .29 .23 .30 .38 .24 .79 .39 .47 .37

,40 .49 .36 .27 ,37 .47 .30 .23 .47 .55 .46

.49 ,59 .46 .33 .46 .57 .40 ,29 .57 .66 .57

,57 ,67 .55 .37 .53 .64 .49 .31 .65 .74 ,64

27 years

or over

924

● .02

.10

.19

.27

.31

.38

.45

l~,xcludes women who had a premarital birth,

‘Includes white women whose relisious preference is other than Protestant or Catholic, as well as those who have no religion.

NOTK: The sums of the aggregates may not add to Wals due to rounding.

30
Table 10. Number of ever-married whita woman 1544 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of months sinca first marriage or previous birth, by birth order through the sixth birth and age of the wife at first marriage dr

previous birth, by religious preference: United States, 1973–Con.

All religions2 Protestant Catholic

Age at thwd bmh

15-44 Under 25-29 30 years 1544 Under 25-29 30 years 15-44 Under

years

25-29 30 years

25 years years or over years 25 years years or over years 25 years years or over

7,812 3,116 3,480 1,216 4,693 2,027 1,969 697 2,805 1,020 1,331 455

Months since marriage or birth

Number of women in thousands ...

Of a fourth b[rth since third b,rth

m .

.03

.12

.21 IL

● .05

.19

.32

.38

.43

.53

.61

‘.02

.08

.16

.20

.25

.32

.39 __u

‘.00 “ .03

.03 .10

.09 .18

.13 .23

.15 .28

.19 .35

.24 .41 1

‘.06

.25

.39

.45

.50

.62

.70

‘.03

.13

.23

.28

.34

.41

.51

+.00

●.f)3 .

●.13

●.17

“.17

.22

.34

.26

.31

.38

,46

I

Age at fourth bwth

1544 Under 27-31 32 years

27 years

15-44 Under 27-31 32 years 15-44 Undar

years

27-31

years

32 years

or over years 27 years years or over years 27 years years or over

Number of women in thousands... 3,567 1,629 1,352 588 1,970 999 680 290 1,510 616 636 258

Cumulative probablliry of a fifth birth since fourth birth

1

“.05

.13

.22

.28

.32

.41

.45

“.08

.19

.30

.38

.42

.54

.58

“.03

.09

.17 1

“.00

“.03

“.08

“.12

“.14

.19

.22

.04

.11

,19

.24

.28

.36

.40

“ .06

.17

.28

,33

.37

.48

.53 1

“.01

●.W

.14

.17

.24

.27

.29

“.00

“.02

‘.03

‘.05

“.07

●.12

“.16

.06

L

.16

.28

.35

.39

.48

.53

‘,11

.23

.35

.44

.51

.62

.65

“.05

“.14

.23

.31

.34

,41

,49

“.00

“.05

‘.13

“,20

“.22

“.29

“.32

34 years

or over

138

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

.23

.27

48 .... ........................................

60 ...... ......... ......................... ....

.32

.38

Age at f!fth birth

I 544

years

34 years 15-44 Under 29-33 34 years 15-44 Under

or over yaars 29 years years or over years 29 years

263 816 408 288 120 802 397

Under

29 years

29-33

years

29-33

years

267

“.03

“.14

‘.18

●.22

“.27

“ .33

.40

Number of women in thousands ... 1,638 814 561

Cumulatwe probabdmy of a sixth brrh since f!fth birth

Number of months

12.., ........ ......... ................ .. ..... .

18 ......... .. .......... ........ ...............

“.04 ● .07 ‘.03

.16 .23 “.1O

.23 .35 ●.14

.29 .41 .22

.34 .47 .24

.40 .54 .30

.44 .59 .34

.. . “ .03 ‘.05 I “.03 I --- I ● 05 II ● (-)7

. . .

.12

. . .

.19

. . .

.27

“.18

.30

M

“,07 --- ~i; “:5?

“,11 . . .

.27 .39

●.22 --- .33 .46

●,22 --- .36 .51

“.28 -.. .42 .56

“.29 --- .47 .62

24 ......... .................. ......... ........

30 ..... ..................... ......... .........

I I II I

!~xc[udes women who had u premarital birth.

= Includes white women whose religious prefcmnce is other than Protestant or Catholic, as well as those who have no religion.

NOTE: The sums of the aggregates may not add to totals due to rounding.

31
w

w Table 11. Number of ever-married women 15-44 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of months since previous birth, by

birth order through the fourth birth and age of the wife at previous birth, by timing of first birth: United Statas, 1973

Months since previous birth

Numbar of women in thousands ..............

Numbar of months:

12 .......................................................

18 .......................................................

24 .......................................................

30 .......................................................

36 .......................................................

48 .......................................................

60 .......................................................

Number of women in thousands ..............

Number of months:

12 .......................................................

18 .......................................................

24 .......................................................

30 ........................... ............................

36 .......................................................

48 .......................................................

60 .......................................................

All women II First birth I

First birth

O-7 months after marriage 8 months or more after marriege

Age at first birth

1 1

15-44 Under 21-23 24 years 15-44 Under 21-23 24 years 15-44 Under 21-23 24 years

years 21 years years or over years 21 years years or over yaars 21 years years or over

21,151 , 10,264 6,169 4,777 4,023 3,140 648 235 17,127 7,124 5,521 4,482

1

.07 .09

.24 .27

.40 .44

.53 .57

.63 .67

.76 .78

.82 .84

.07

.22

.40

.52

.63

.77

.84

15,511 II 6,863 5,659

.04 .07

.16 .22

.26 .33

.34 .42

.41 .51

.50 .61

.57 .68

*.03

.14

.22

.29

.36

.46

.55

Cumulative probability of a second I

.05 .12 .13 *.11

.19 ,31 .32 .28

.33 .46 .47 .42

.46 .59 .59 .57

.57 .68 .68 .70

.69 .79 .78 .82

.75 .85 .84 .85

Age at second birth

th since fil

*.06

*.26

.44

.55

.65

.83

.92

t birth

.06

.22

.39

.52

.62

.75

.81

.07

.24

.42

.56

.66

.78

.84

.06

.22

.39

.51

.62

.77

.83

.05

.18

.32

.45

.56

.69

.74

2,989 II 2,900 II 2,096

=-l-3=

650 I 154 12,611 II 4,767 I 5,009 I 2,835

Cumulative probability of a third birth since second birth

* .02

.10

.17

.24

.27

.34

.37

.08 .09

.22 .25

.31 .35

,40 .46

.47 .53

.58 .64

.64 .70

●.05

.16

.22

.28

.36

.49

.54

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

..-

-..

. . .

.04

.15

.25

.32

.39

.49

.56

.05

.20

.31

.40

.50

.59

.67

●.03 . . .

.13 ---

.22 . . .

.29 ---

.36 . . .

.46 ---

.55 . . .

lExcludes women who had a premarital birth.

NOTE: The sums of the aggregates may not add to totals due to rounding.
Table 11. Number of ever-married women 1544 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by numbar of months since previous birth, by birth

order through the fourth birth and age of the wife at previous birth, by timing of first birth: United States, 1973—Con.

Months since previous birth

Numb-w of woman in thousands ..............

Number of months:

12 ................................ .......................

18 .......................................................

24 .......................................................

30 .......................................................

36 .......................................................

48 .......................................................

60 .......................................................

All women II First birth I

First birth

O-7 months after marriage 8 months or more after merriage

Age at third birth

15-44 Under 25-29 30 years 15-44 Under 25-29 30 years 15-44 Under 25-28 30 years

years 25 years years or ovar years 25 years yaars or over yaars 25 years years or over

8,534 3,555 3,672 1,307 1,686 1,130 497 59 6,848 2,425 3,175 1,248

.

Cumulative probability of a fourth birth since third birth

.04 ‘.06

.13 .21

.23 .34

.28 .41

.32 .46

.40 .55

lExcludes women who had a premarital birth.

●.03

.09

,16

.21

.25

.33

.40

. . .

..-

..-

---

. . .

---

. . . I__L

*.05 “.07

.19 .23

.29 .36

.35 .40

.39 .46

.47 .54

.55 .61

‘.02

*.10

●.15

.23

.25

.32

.42

. . .

..-

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

-..

.03

.12

.21

.26

.31

.39

.46L

++.05

.20

.33

.41

.46

.56

.64

*.03

.08

.17

.20

.25

.33

.40

. . .

. . .

-..

. . .

. . .

. . .

..-

NOTE: The sums of the aggregates may not edd to totals due to rounding.

w

w
Table 12. Number of ever-married women 15-44 years of aga,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of months since first marriage or previous birth, by birth interval through the s“ixth birth-and age of the wife at first marriage or previous birth, by year of first marriage: United States, 1973

First married 1970-73

I

First married 1965-69

I

First married 1960-64 IFirst married 1955-59 IFirst married 1950-54

Age at first marriage Months s,nce marriage or birth

‘Under

I 9 years

~

Cumulative probability of a first birth since frost marriage

22-34

years

+

19-21 22-34

years years

2,064 1,420

Under

19 years

Number of women in thousands ..................... .... ... 1,551

.25

.39

.54

Under

?1 years

2,055 1,802 I 1,951 I

1

.15

.26

.37

. . .

. . .

“.07

.18

.29

. . .

.29

.48

.63

.75

.80

.83

.89

.91 1

.15 “ .08

.31 .22

.44 .35

.52 .44

.58 .49

.64 .57

.74 .66

.80 .74

.23

.50

.65

.73

.78

.82

.88

.91

.17

.43

.60

.69

.73

.81

.67

.89

“.08

.28

.23

.54

.73

.81

.86

.89

.92

.95

.13

.42

.59

.70

.8o

.82

.88

.91 1

.15

.39

.60

,70

.78

.82

.86

.90

.08

.33

.50

.63

.70

.44

.52

.60

.66

,73

.77

.75

.83

.86

. ..

. .

Age at first birth

21-23 24-35 Under 21-23 24-35 Under 21-23

years years 21 years years years 21 years years

24-35 Under 21-23 24-35 Under 21-23 24-35

years 21 years years years 21 years years years

Number of women in thousands ................................ 1,333 t,l Ot I 2,128 I 1,397 I I 1,836 ! 1,084 I

‘.05

.14

. . .

. . .

. .

. . .

924 I 960 ! 2,054 I 1,384 I 1,343 [ 2,090 I 1,376

Cumulative probability of a second bhth since first bhth

‘.02

“.11

“.03

.13 1

“ .05 “.04

.17 .17

.33 .30

.11 .10

.35 .27

.52 .44

.65 .55

.73 .62

.62 .76

.85 .83 1

‘.07 .12

.21 .34

.33 .52

.47 .65

.55 .75

.68 .84

.72 .90

.09

.30

.51

.63

.72

.83

.88

.

.09

.30

.50

.63

.71

.83

.90

‘ .07

.21

.36

.51

.64

.78

.85

...

...

...

.

...

...

..

. ..

...

.46 .43

.62 .56

.78 .69

.61 .76

Age at second birth

Under -

23 years

23-26 27-35 Under 23-26 27-35 Under 23-26 27-35 Under 23-26 27-35 Under 23-26 27-35

years years 23 years years years 23 years years years 23 years years years 23 years years years

Number of women in thousands ................................ 801 997 I 673 I 1,178 I 1,366 I 840 I 1,901 ] 1,265 I . ..1 1,54111,6221 . ..1 1,2491 . ..1

Cumulative probability of a third birth since second birth

“.02 “ .02 I

.08 ‘.04 I.08

.08 ● .09 .25 .20 ,.. .24

.15 ‘.14 .36 .31 . . . .37

‘.03 . . .

.16 ,..

.24

.30

.38 ,..

.48 . . .

.60

● .06 . . .

.25 . . .

.37

.48

.59 .

.68 . . .

.74 . . .

“ .02

.12

.18

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

“ .02

‘.06

.10

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

‘.00

‘.07

‘ .08

$.05

.14

.23

.29

.34

.47

.55

.

.20 .20 .45 .38 .

I

.46

.26 .23 .53 .44 . . . .56

.37 .28 .61 .53 . . .66

.43 .29 .70 .58 . . . .72

...

...

...

l~xcludes women who had a premarital birth.
Table 12. Number of ever-married women 1544 years of age,l and cumulative birth probabilities within first marriage, by number of months since first marriage or previous bkth, by birth interval through the sixth Wlrth and age of the Wife at first marriage or previous birth, by year of first marriage: United States, 1973–Con.

First married 1970-73 I Rrstmarried 1965.69 I First married 1960-&f I First nrarried 1!355-59 I First nsarried 1950-64

Months since marriage or b!rth Age at third birth

=T= 25-29 30-39 Under 25-29 30-39 Under 25-28 30-39

years years 25 years years years 25 years years years

940 . . . l,t70 1,270 . . . 935 893 . . .

30-39 I

lJnder

years 25 years

Under

25 yeers

25-29 30-39

years years

Number of women in thousands ................................ 305 I 509 259 [ 607 517 . .. i ...

Cumulative probability of a fourth birth since third birth

‘.00 ●.01

‘.10 ‘ .04

-.. -..

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. ..

. ..

. ..

.. .

. ..

. ..

. ..

‘ .04

.15

.26

.28

.35

.47

.53

‘.03

“.07

.13

.17

.22

.29

.34

+.09

‘.33

‘ .49

● .58 L

.

.

.

.

.

. .. . ..

. ..

. . .

...

. ..

.. .

..

...

.. .

..

.. .

.. .

,

.64

.67

.78

Age at fourth birth

Under 27-31 32-37 Under 27-31

27 years years years 27 years years

32-37

years

Under 27-31 32-37 Under 27-31 32-37

27 years years years 27 yeara years years =4-=F=- Number of women in thousands ........ ........................ 135 I 227 I 109 I 379 I 423 6171 571 I . ..! 603 I 296 . ..1 . . . ... I ...1 ..

Cumulative probability of a fifth birth since fourth bhth

“.03 --- ‘.09 “.02 . . . “.08

“.06 --- .23 “ .09 .,. .24

‘.12 --- .33 .20 . . . .37

‘.t4 --- .38 .26 . . . .45

.18 --- .45 .31 . . . .49

.23 --- .57 .37 . . . .60

.27 --- .61 .43 . . . .66

‘.09

●.19

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

“.00

+.06 L

. ‘ .07

. . . ●.15

. . . ● .20

. . . .33

. . . .35

. . . .46

. . . .48

.. .

.. .

...

.

. ..

... 1 ...

..,,.,

...

...

.,.

. ..

...

..

. ..

—

...

. . .

. ..

,.,

. ..

. ..

.. .

. .

.. .

.. .

. . .

. . .

Age at fifth birth

Und.4r

29 years

2%33 Under 29-33 Under 29-33 Under 29-33

years 29 years years 29 years years 29 years years

215 357 267 297 . . . . . . . .

.. .

i

Number of women in thouwsds ................................ 211 ...

...

...

...

.. .

...

.. .

...

Cumulative probability of a sixth birth since fifth birth

1

..-‘.13

. . .

‘.16

. . .

‘.29

. . .

.39

. . . .40

. . .

.43

. . .

.48

‘.02

‘.12

●.14

‘.21

● .04 ‘ .03

I I

● .07 . . . . .

“ .24 +.10

. . .

“ .29 . . . . . . . .

.3a ●.15 .41 . . . . . . .

.43

. . .

*.20 .49 . . . . . .

.51 ●.23 .56 ‘ ::: . . . . .

.59 “.30 .65 . . . . . . . .

.63 “.36 .69 . . . . . . . .

“.24

●.26

‘.31
APPENDIXES

CONTENTS

I. Technical Notes ............................................................................................................................. 37

Background ............................................................................................................. ................. 37

Statistical Design ...................................................................................................................... 37

Measurement Process ................................................................................................................ 38

Data Reduction ........................................................................................................................ 38

Reliability of Estimates ............................................................................................................ 38

Nonsarnpling Emor ................................................................................................................... 41

II. Calculation of Birth Probabilities .................................................................................................. 44

IIL Definition of Terns ....................................................................................................................... 46

IV. Selected Items from the NSFG Questiomtire ............................................................................... 48

APPENDIX FIGURE

L Relative standard errors for aggregates of women, by mce ............................................................ 40

LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES

L Approximate standard en-ors for estimated cumulative bkth probabfities for white and total

women: 1973 National Survey of Farmly Growti ......................................................................... 41

IL Approximate standard errors for estimated cumulative birth probabilities for black women: 1973

Nationsf Survey of Family Growth ................................................................................................ 41
APPENDIX I

TECHNICAL NOTES

Background

This report is one ofaseries ofstatisticalreports based on information collected from a

nationwide sample of \vomen by the National

Survey of Family Growth conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics.

The National Survey of Family Growth

(NSFG) utilizes a questionnaire to obtain demographic information and information on fertility, famiIy planning, and health factors related

to childbearing. AS data relating to various subjects within these broad topics are tabulated and

analyzed, separate reports are issued. The present report is based on data coIlected in the first

cycle of the survey, which was centered on September 1973.

The population covered by the sample for

the NSFG is women 15-44 years of age living in

households in the conterminous United States

at the time of interview who were ever married

or had offspring living with them. The sample

did not include women living in institutions or

group quarters. Personal interviews were conducted by the staff of the National Opinion

Research Center (NORC), Chicago, beginning in

JuIy 1973 and ending in February 1974.

Statistical Design

The sampling plan for the survey was a multistage probability design. Black households and

households of all other races were selected at

different probabilities so that the sample was

composed of about 40 percent black women and

60 percent women of all other races. The sample was designed so that tabulations could be

provided for each of the four geographic regions

of the United States.

The first stage of the sample design consisted

of drawing a sample of primary sampling units

(PSU’S). A PSU consisted of a county, a smalI

group of contiguous counties, or a standard

metropolitan statistical area as defined by the

U.S. Bureau of the Census in hlarch 1971. The

second and third stages of sampling \vere used to

select several segments (clusters of about 100

dweIIing units) within each PSU. A systematic

sample of dwelling units was then selected from

each segment. Each sample dwelling unit was

visited by an interviewer who listed all household members. If a woman 15--M years of age,

ever married or with offspring in the household,

was listed as being in the household, an extended interview was conducted. If more than

one woman in the household met the eligibility

criteria, one of the }vomen was randomly

selected for an extended interview.

Since the design of the NSFG was a complex

multistage probability sampIe, the derivation of

estimates in\~olved three basic operations:

Inflation by the reciprocal of the probability

of selection. —The probability of selection is

the product of the probabilities of selection

from each step of selection in the design

(PSU, segment, listing unit, household, and

sample persons within household).

Aronresponse adjustment. -The estimates

were inflated by a multiplication of two factors. The first has the number of sample

households in a given PSU and stratum as its

numerator and the number of households

screened in the PSU and stratum as its denominator. The second factor has as its

numerator the number of screened households with an eligible woman of a specific

37
age and race class and PSU group, and as its

denominator, the number of women actually interviewed in the same age and race

class and PSU. Screener response for the

total survey was 89.8 percent and interview

response was 90.2 percent for the total sample, yielding an overall response of approximately 81.0 percent.

Posts gratification by marital status-agerace. —The estimates are ratio adjusted

within each of 12 age-race cells to an independent estimate of the population for evermarried women. These independent estimates were derived from the U.S. Bureau of

the Census Current Population Surveys of

1971-73. The numbers of single women with

offspring living with them were inflated by

steps 1 and 2.

All figures are individually rounded; aggregate figures are rounded to the nearest thousand.

The sums of aggregates and percentages may not

add up to the total due to the rounding.

The ef feet of the ratio-estimating process is

to make the sample more closely representative

of the population of women 15-44 years of age,

living in households in the conterminous United

States, and ever-married or with offspring living

with them. The final postratification reduces

the sample variance of the estimates for most

statistics.

Descriptive material on the sampling design

and estimation procedures may be found in

another report.5

Measu nernent Process

Field operations for the survey were conducted by NORC as agent for NCHS. Their responsibilities included pretesting the interview

schedule, selecting the samp Ie, interviewing respondents, and carrying out quality control

checks. The questionnaire was pretested in

November 1972, and subsequent smaller field

trials were held in March 1973. Interviewers

were trained for a week prior to fieldwork and

NOTE: A list of references follows the text.

had their first few schedules reviewed thoroughly. During the first part of the fieldwork,

each interview schedule was reviewed for the

completeness of certain key items and more intensive review and followup were performed if

errors were discovered. Review and folllowup

were reduced to a sample of each interviewer’s

work in the later part of the fieldwork,, A 10

percent sample of all households with telephones was recontacted to verify the interview

and the accuracy of a few items. All of these

operations were monitored by NCHS.

The parts of the interview schedule applicable to this report are reproduced in appendix IV.

The complete schedules are available upon

request. Two different forms were used, one for

interviewing currently married women and the

other for interviewing widowed, divorced,

separatea, or single women with their own children living with them. The two forms differ

mainly in wording when reference is made to the

husband; there are a few questions in each

schedule that do not appear in the other.

Data Reduction

Coding and keying were done by NORC and

the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Each coder’s

work was systematically sampled for verification. Keying at the U ,S. Bureau of the Census

was performed on key-to-disk equipment programed to reject invalid entries. Each keyer’s

work was systematically sampled for verification. The data were edited by the U.S. Bureau of

the Census and NCHS to minimize internal inconsistencies. After editing, value entries were

imputed to cases with missing data on an itemby-item basis. No item with more than 15

percent missing data was included in the imputation. The imputed value entry for a case was

selected from a randomly chosen case with

similar characteristics such as race, age, and

marital status, using a procedure known as “hot

deck” imputation.

Reliability of Estimates

Since the statistics presented in this report

are based on a sampIe, they may differ some38
what from the figures that would have been obtained if a complete census had been taken using

the same questionnaires, instructions, interviewing personnel, and field procedures. This

chance difference between sample results and a

complete count is referred to as sampling error

and is measured by a statistic called the standard

error of estimate. The relative standard error of

an estimate is obtained by dividing the standard

error of the estimate by the estimate itself and is

expressed as a percent of the estimate. Included

in this appendix are a reIative standard error

chart (figure I) and tables I and II, from which

the relative standard errors can be determined

for estimates shown in this report. In order to

derive relative errors which would be applicable

to a wide variety of health statistics and which

could be prepared at a moderate cost, a number

of approximations were required. As a result,

&

the figure and tables provide an estimate of the

approximate e relative standard error rather than

the precise error for any specific statistic. The

standard errors were computed using a procedure known as balanced half-sample replication.6

The chances are about 68 out of 100 that an

estimate from the sample would differ from a

complete census by less than the standard error.

The chances are about 95 out of 100 that the

difference between the sample estimate and a

complete count would be less than twice the

standard error. In this report, numbers and percentages which have a standard error that is

more than 25 percent of the estimate itself are

considered unreliable. They are marked with an

asterisk to caution the user but may be combined to make other types of comparisons of

greater precision.

In this report, sample statistics are compared

among subgroups or across years, using the normal deviate test at the 0.05 level of confidence.

Significance at the 0.05 level me~s that the difference is large enough that in repeated samples

of the same size and type as this one, such a

large difference wouId be expected to be found

in less than 5 percent of the samples. Significance at the 10-percent level means that such a

large difference would be expected to be found

in less than 10 percent of such repeated samples.

When two or more sample statistics are compared and they have only small, statistically nonsignificant differences among them, they may be

referred to as “similar.” Observed differences

that are described in terms such as “greater,”

“less,” ‘larger,” “smaler,” and so forth, have

been tested and found statistically significant at

the 5-percent level. Statements qualified with

the word “probabIy” indicate that the difference is significant at the 10-percent level but not

at the .5-percent level. In many of the smaller

categories of the tables of this report, differences were found to be substantial but not statistically significant using a 2-taiIed t-test. In

these instances, one shotdd not conclude that no

difference exists, but simply that such differences cannot be established with 95-percent confidence from a sample of this size. Lack of comment in the text about any two statistics does

not necessarily mean that the difference was

tested and found not to be significant.

The approximate standard error (denoted by

S) of an estimated cumulative birth probability

(P’ ) based on an estimate of a number of

women (denoted by N’) entering the birth interval of interest is given by:

‘p’‘m

for women of all races, white women, and Hispanic women; and

J

3043.45 (P’) (1 - P’)

‘p’ =

iv’

4

for black women. Standard errors based on these

formulas have been computed for selected values

of P’ and N’ and are shown in tables I and II.

Details of the balanced half-sample replication

procedure and the curve fitting procedure are

given elsewhere.s

Approximate standard errors for estimated

cumulative birth probabilities are shown in

table I for white women and women of all races

combined and are shown in table II for black

women.

39
$=

o Figure 1. Relative standard errors for aggregates of women, by race

50

40

30

10 I I ! 1 I ) ! I I 1

9

0

5

1 1 I 1 1 I 1 1 1 k

4

I I I I I [Ill

I 1 I I 1 1 1 1 I II I

3

111111

I I I

2

.5

.2

11 1 I I I I I I 11111111 [11 1 I I i I I 1 11111111[1[ I I I I I L

““~ 2 A’ 3 4 56789

A234

3 456789

10 100

i’ 56789

i’

3 4567a9 3 456789

1,000 10,000

ESTIMATED NUMBER OF WOMEN (IN THOUSANDS)

Example of use of chart: An aggregate of 2 million women (on the scale at the bottom of the chart) of all races has a relative

standard error of 4.8 percent, or a standard error of 96,000 (4.8 percent of 2 million).
Table 1. Aomoximate standard errors for estimated cumulative birth probabilities for white and total women: 1973 National Survev

Number of women

at beginning of

interval

1.ooo.............................................................

1oro@ ........................................#..................

50.000 ....... ... .................................................

loo.om ........ ............................................ .....

5m.ooo .............. ........ ........................ ...........

l.mo.om .................. ................................... .

5.000.000 ............... ........ .......... ...... ...............

lo.om.ooo ...... ... ............. ..............................

of Family Growth

Estimated cumulative birth probability

.02 or .98 .05 or .95 .10 or .90 .20 or .80 .30 or .70 .40 or .60 .50

.347

.110

.049

.035

.015

.011

.005

.003

.540

.171

.076

.054

.024

.017

.008

.005

Standard error

.743 .991

.235 .313

.105 .140

.074 .099

.033 .044

.024 .031

.011 .014

.007 .010

1.135

.359

.161

.114

.051

.036

.016

.011

1.214

.384

.172

.121

.054

.038

.017

.012

1.239

.392

.175

.124

.055

.018

.012

Table 1I. Approximate standard errors for estimated cumulative birth probabilities for black women: 1973 National Survey of

Family Growth

Number of women Estimated cumulative birth probability

at beginning of

interval .02 or .98 .05 or .95 .10 or .90 .20 or .80 .30 or .70 .40 or .60 .50

l.ooo ..............................................................

lo.ooo ................ ........ ......... .............. .. ...... .. ...

25.000 ........ .................... ..... ......... ................ ..

50.000 ......... ........ .......... ...... .......... ............ .... .

75.000 ............ ........ ...... ...................... .. ...... ....

loo.ooo .......... ...... ......... .......................... ..... ..

l.ooo.om ................................... ............ ........

.244

.077

.049

.035

.028

.024

.008

.380

.120

.076

.054

.044

.038

.012

Standard error

.523 .698

.165 .221

.105 .740

.074 .089

.060 .081

.052 .070

.017 .022

.799

.253

.160

.113

.082

.080

.025

.855

.270

.171

.121

.088

.085

.027

.872

.276

.174

.123

.101

.087

.028

Nonsampling Error

In addition to sampling error, the survey results are subject to several sources of potential

nonsampling error, including interview nonresponse, nonresponse to individual questions

within the interview, inconsistency of responses

to individual questions, respondent error or misreporting, and errors of recording, coding, or

keying by survey personnel. It is impossible to

measure the extent of nonsarnpling errors accurately. Although some usefuI approximate measures can be made of some types of nonsampIing

error, the survey must rely upon several quality

control procedures and other methods incorporated into the survey design to minimize nonsampling error.

htervie w nonresponse. —Interview nonresponse, or the failure to obtain whole interviews,

arises from several sources—incomplete listing of

households for the sampling frm-e, inability to

screen all sample households for eligible respondents, md inability to complete a full interview. Completeness of Iisting cannot be tested

directly as it requires an independent, accurate

accounting of the households that should have

been listed. In the NSFG, listing accuracy was

tested at the time of screening by use of the

“half open interwd” check for missed households; i.e., at designated sarnpIe households, the

interviewer was required to check for dwelling

units between the sample househoId just

screened and the next listed dwelling unit. This

procedure resulted in the addition of 781 missed

units or an additional 2.4 percent to the origimd

sample of dwelling units to be screened.

Of the original sample of 32,818 dwelling

units to be screened, 3,820 were found to be

41
vacant, not dwelling units, or group quarters. of

the remaining dwelling units, 9.7 percent were

not successfully screened. This included 2.3 percent refusals to have the household members

listed; 1.6 percent with language problems, illness, or otherwise unavailable in the field period:

!I.6 percent where no one could be found at

home; and 1.1 percent for other reasons such as

refused access to the unit.

Of the 26,177 households for which screening was completed, 10,879 were found to contain an eligible respondent. However, intervieivs

were not completed in 9.8 percent of these cases

because of refusals by the eligible respondents

(5.0 percent); language, illness, and related

problems (2.0 percent); and no contact after

repeated calls (2,7 percent).

The nonresponse adjustment for interview

nonresponse described above imputes to nonrespondlng dwelling units and women the characteristics of similar respondent dwelling units

and women.

Item nonresponse. –Nonresponse to individual questions (item nonresponse) was less than

2 percent for about half (51 percent) of the

items. Item nonresponse occurred when the person refused to answer the question, when the

person did not know the an~er to the question,

when the question was erroneously not asked or

the answer not recorded by the interviewer, and

T

ere the answer was uncodeable. For 37 perc‘ nt of the items, nonresponse was between 2

and 10 percent. For the remaining 12 percent

of the items, nonresponse was greater than 10

percent of persons eligible to answer the items.

Half of these high nonresponse items were concentrated in two areas—detailed income questions and questions about the reasons for switching from one contraceptive method to another.

The remaining high nonresponse items were generally those asked of small numbers of persons.

Some illustrative items with their associated

nonresponse rates are: the numl% of children

ever born (panty) (no missing data), intentions

about having another child. (0.7 percent),

whether contraception was stopped in order to

become pregnant (1.9 percent), highest grade of

school attended (O.1 percent), and total family

income (6.8 percent).

For most items an adjustment for missing

data values was made by one of four imputation

procedures. In order of frequency em~ployed

they were: (1) “hot deck” imputation, (2) imputation from a sorted file, (3) editing from

other data within the same case, and (4) allocation based on technical judgments.

“Hot deck” imputation refers to a procedure

in which the file is first randomized, Next a

matrix is created for values of items (e g., race,

age, and m~ital status) judged to he correlated

with the item to be imputed (e g., number of

times married). A reasonable “cold deck” value

(e.g., 2 = married twice) is assigned to each cell

of the matrix in case the first file record with

the given characteristics has missing data. The

randomized file is processed and each rlecord is

identified as belonging to one CCIIof the matrix

(e.g., white, age 25-29, currently married). The

item to be imputed is checked: if it is blank—

not applicable (e g., not married before), it is

ignored; if it has a missing data code, the code

in the matrix is placed in the record. If it has an

acceptable code, that code replaces the code

already in the matrix, and it remains in the

matrix until another record with the same characteristics and a known code is encountered.

This insures that the probability of a code being

assigned to a record with missing data is the

same as the probability of that code occurring

among records with the same characteristics

but with known data.

For imputation from a sorted file, the records are first sorted by selected characteristics

(e.g., marital status, race, and age) so that the

first group of records would be currently married black women aged 15-19, the second group “

would be currently married black women aged

20-24, etc. An initial value is assigned for the

item to be imputed—(e g., 4 [tubal ligation] for

type of sterility )—and for any item dependent

upon the item to be imputed–(e.g., 9 [not

ascertained] as to whether the operation was for

contraceptive reasons). The ordered file is processed and each record is checked. If the item to

be imputed is blank–not applicable, it is ignored; if it has a known code, it and its dependent items would replace the existing set of

values; if it has a missl%g data code, it and its

dependent items would be changed to tlhe preset

values above. This procedure insures that the im42
puted code is reasonable for the ordering characteristics and that the probability of assignment

is the same as in the population in general. There

wiIl be some bias, however, as the boundaries

between groups are crossed.

Where sampling error affects the precision

of survey estimates, nonsampling” error introduces bias. Imputation procedures reduce this

bias to the extent that the assumptions about

the relations between respondent and nonrespondent characteristics are true. But the

amount of remaining bias, if any, cannot be

measured. Therefore, stringent quality control

procedures were introduced at every stage of

the survey, including the check on completeness

of the household listing mentioned earlier, the

extensive training and practice of interviewers,

field observation of interviewers, field editing of

questionnaires, short verification interviews with

a subsample of respondents and missed households, verification of coding and editing, an

independent recode of a sample of questionnaires by NCHS, keypunch verification, and an

extensive computer “cleaning” to check for

impermissible codes, missing data, and response

inconsistencies. One source of bias that can be

evaluated through special studies but cannot be

controlled is respondent error, whether deliberate or” unwitting. In this as in other surveys,

the data are subject to problems of accurate

recall and of the stability of respondents’ views

from one time to the next.

000

43
APPENDIX II

CALCULATION OF BIRTH PROBABILITIES

The basic statistic presented in thk report is

the cumulative probability y of hating a birth

within x months after the beginning of a birth

interval. The beginning of the first birth interval

is defined as the date of first mzfr.riage, the beginning of the second birth interval as the date of

birth of the first child, and so on. Since cumulative probabilities are calculated separately for

specified subgroups of women, intergroup differences in the timing of births during each interval

can be determined from these data.

The cumulative probabilities of having a

birth by the end of each month are computed

using a life table procedure and require two sets

of tabulations from each woman’s fertility

history: (1) the number of months between marriage and first birth, between first and second

birth, and so on, (for closed birth intervals); and

(2) the number of months between marriage or

last birth and the interview or separation date

(for the open birth interval).7 Tabulations of

these data are then produced for each subgroup

of sample women for each birth interval, and the

tabulations are used to calculate each BX and Tx.

These I?x and Tx, in turn, are used to derive the

life table probabilities in the manner described

below.

In algebraic notation let

BX = the number of women who had a

birth during the xth month after the

beginning of the birth interval.

TX = the number of women who were

either interviewed or experienced

Lx =

%+.1=

J%=

Px =

%=

CPX =

CQX =

NOTE: A list of references follows the te;t.

44

marital disruption during the xth

month after the beginning of the

birth interval without an additional

birth.

the number of women at risk of

having a birth at the beginning of the

xth month after the beginning of the

birth interval.

the number of women at risk of a

birth at the beginning of the (x +l)th

month.

the adjusted number of women at

risk of having a birth at thle beginning of month x.

‘?

the probability of not having a birth

during the xth month after

ginning of the birth interval.

the probability of having

during the xth month after

ginning of the birth interval.

the cumulative probability y

having a birth by the end of

month after the beginning

birth interval. -

the bea birth

the beef not

the xth

of the

m.

the cumulative probability of having

a birth by the end of the xth month

after the beginning of the birth

interval.

8
then

n

L1 = z (% ‘z.)

X=1

where n is the meatest number of

“

months after the

interval that any

served;

beginning of the

WOtYlan Was obLX+I=LX -’%-Z?

~= Lx-%Tx

Qx = Bx /L;

PX=I-QX

Cpx = (Cq.1 ) (q

CQX = 1- CPX

000

.

45
APPENDIX Ill

DEFINITION OF TERMS

Marital status. –Marital status was a criterion

of sample selection. The National Survey of

Family Growth (NSFG) szukpled women who

were currently married at thk time of interview,

who had ever been married, or who had never

been married but had offspring (that is, children

born to them) in the household. Current marital

status was recorded in seven categories in response to the question, “Is (PERSON) now

married, widowed, divorced or annulled, separated, or has he/she ntwer been married?” The

seven categories in which answers were recorded

were: married, informal union, widowed, divorced or annulled, separated, single with own

children, and never married. Women in the last

category were not eligible for the survey.

Married women include those who are

legally or formally married whose husbands are

living in the household or are temporarily absent

on business, illness, vacation, etc., and those

who are informally married or “living together”

with a male partner whose usual residence is the

same household. Women currently in informal

unions were reported separately but are too few

to be separately classified for analytical purposes. Information on informal unions was obtained only if volunteered by the respondent in

the course of listing household members and

their relationship to the head of the household.

Divorced women include those legally separated from their former spouses by a legal decree

of divorce or annulment and free to remarry.

While those legally separated but without freedom to remarry belong in the latter category of

separated, there was no direct question in the

interview to establish the issue of freedom to

remarry with certainty. The term divorce is presumed to refer most generally to “absolute”

decrees.

Widowed women are those previously married women whose most recent spouses are

deceased.

Separated women are those legally or informally separated from their former spouses.

Included here would be cases of desertion, informal separation by mutual agreement, and

legal separations in which the partners are not

free to remarry.

Single with own children is a category of

women who have begun their childbearing and

have never been married. However, some of

these women were probably missed in the survey

because this category was not identified by a

direct question. These are single women who

have one or more children born to them and

living with them in the household. Single women

who gave a child up for adoption or who board

the child elsewhere and those who have not had

a live birth are not included in the survey.

Religion. –Women were classified by religion

in response to the question, “Are you Protestant, Roman Catholic, Jewish, or something

else?” In addition to the three major religious

groupings, two other categories–other and

none—were used. Since the category of Protestant includes numerous individual denominations, these respondents were further asked to

identify the denomination to which they

belonged. Those who answered “other” to the

original question and then named a Protestant

denomination were then included with their

own groups. Although specific denominational

names were obtained and recorded, the numbers

of cases for most denominations were too few to

46
produce reliable estimates, so they have been

combined in larger categories. Data on religious

denominations were reported for aIl but 26

respondent cases, more than 99 percent. anti

these few cases were imputed.

Race and ethnicity. –Women were classified

as white, black, or “other races” according to

the interviewer’s observations at the time of

interview. Agreement between this classification

and the respondent’s own reports of ethnic

origin, also obtained in the interview, was very

high; for instance, of those classified as “bIack”

by interviewer observation, 100 percent reported their ethnic origin as at least partly

“black, African, or Negro”; and of those who

reported their ethnic origin as “bIack, African,

or Negro,” 96 percent were classified as “black”

by interviewer obsen~ation. Race was imputed

for 10 cases.

Information about ethnic origins was obtained for the woman by asking, “What is your

origin or descent?” Persons were classified as

being of Hispanic origin if any of the following

responses were given: Mexicano, Chicano, hlexican American, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Hispano, or

any other Spanish origin or descent. Persons

who did not give any of those responses ~vere

classified as being not of Hispanic origin. Persons

may have more than one origin or descent, and

multiple responses to the questions were recorded. However, any of the responses listed

above resulted in classifi~tion of the person as

being of Hispanic origin regardless of any other

responses which may have accompanied it. It

should be noted that in this report the classifications of race and ethnicity are independent;

each ethnic category may include persons of aI1

races, and each racial category may include persons of all ethnic groups. Ethnicit y \vas reported

for more than 99 percent of respondents.

Farm background. –Women were asked,

“When you were growing up, that is, between

the ages of 6 and 16, did you live on a farm

most of the time (half of the time or more)?”

Women who answered affirmati~~ely were classified as having a farm background, and others

were classified as having a nonfarm background.

Responses were obtained from more than 99

percent of sample women. Note that the term

$’fam,> was not defined for respondents, so

there may be considerable variation in the childhood experience of those who reported a farm

background.

Education. –Education is classified according

to the highest grade or year of regular school

or coIIege that was completed. Determination

of the highest year of regular school or college

completed by the respondent is based on responses to a series of questions concerning (a)

the last grade or year of school attended, (b)

whether or not that grade was completed, (c)

whether any other schooling of a vocational or

generally nonacademic type was obtained, and

(d) whether or not such other schooling was included in the years of regular school or coIIege

reported in (a). Information on education was

reported aImost completely. Only about 1 percent of the data was imputed.

Education at first marriage refers to the

number of years of regular schooling completed

by the respondent at the time of her first

marriage.

Age. —The age of a person at a given event is

the number of whole years completed, or the

age at the birthday preceding the event. Age at a

given event is calculated by subtracting the reported date of birth from the date of the given

event. The respondent’s age at first marriage and

age at the birth of each successive child me u5ed

in this report.

Prernan”ta? birth. –This refers to a first or

subsequent birth that occurred before the respondent’s first marriage.

Year of ~irst marriage. –Year of first marriage refers to the calendar year in which the

woman was first married.

Fecurzdability. –This refers to the probability that a woman will conceive within one

menstrual cycle, or one month, in the absence of

any attempt to prevent conception.

000

47
APPENDIX IV

SELECTED ITEMS FROM THE NSFG QUESTIONNAIRE

1~, Have you ever been married before?

}

Yes . . (ASKA) . 1 RECALL 51

No . . . . ...2 CHART @

A. IF YES: Includingyour present marriage, how

many times have you been married?

(Numberof Times)

~, ~fienwere you and Mr. (NAME OF

PRESENT HUSBAND)married? m

(Month)

m

(Day)

m

(Year)

+

IF RMARRIED ONLY ONCE: YEAR ON RJ3CALLCHART @;

AND SKIP TO SEC. 11, P. 4.

CHECKD IF 59

INFORMAL UNION

ASK Q‘S 12-15 FOR EACH PREVIOUSMARRIAGE BEFORE GOING ON TO NEXT MARRIAGE. 60 72F

BEGIN DECK=

U

IF MARRIED M3RR

THAN ONCE:

When were you

married the (lst/

2nd/3rd, etc.)

time?

CHECK BOX BELOW DATE

IF INFORML UNION

,mmm

OF 1st MAilRIAGE~~%R]! —

INFORMALU 16

RECALL CHART @

l-r-l CTJ !33

(MONTH DAY YEAR

OF 2nd MARRIAGE)26 3] —

INFORMALU 31

mmrn @5iiEi—DAY YEAR

OF 3rd MARRIAGE)42 b:

13, 14,

How did that

marriage end? IF DIVORCE!

(RRAD CATEGORY ~

t

IF DEATH:

IF NECESSARY) ANNULMENT:~

1 2

317 ‘ Ww

18 21

1 2

333 Qw

34 3?

1 2 3

4’ Wl=l

50 S3

15,

IF DIVORCE, ANNljLMENT,OR

SEPARATION:

When did you and

your (lst/2nd/

etc.) husband

stop living

together?

QJQJ

22 25

iJJul(Yqp)’7

58 73

IF MORE THAN FOUR MARRIAGES,GO TO CONTINUATIONBOOKLET, PAGE 3.

48
In a

some

18,

study of family growth in this country, one of the most important things is knowing

basic facts about pregnancies and births that women have.

Have you had a baby born

to you at any

A. IF YES:

time?

Altogether, how many babies

including any who died very

Yes . . . (ASK A).... 1 10

No . (SKIP TO Q. 21) . . 2

have sou had born to You.

young~ (Number of - “

P

Recall

live births) Chart @

1 12

19, Now I’d like to get some information about (each of) your (baby/babies).

(ASK A-F FOR EACH LIVR BIRTH.) I FIRST SECOND

A. When was your (first, second, etc.) child CHILD CHILD

born? (ENTER DATE IN COL. Y OF BIRTH &

PREG. RECORD BETWEEN HEAVY LINES.)

B. What did you name the baby? (ENTER IN

...............

...............

*. .............

...............

COL. Z OF BIRTH & PREG. RECORD NEXT TO ..............................

..............................

DATE OF BIRTH.) ...............................

(ENTER t-F IN c141LDCOLS. TO RIGHT)

c. Was that baby a boy or a girl?

Boy Girl Boy Girl

1 2 1 2

THIRD

CHILD

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Boy Girl

1 2

L

‘

000

49
VITAL AND HEALTH STATISTICSSales

Sm”es 1.

Sin-es 2,

Series 3.

Sen”es 4,

fiograms and Collection Avcedures. –Reports which describe the generaf programs of the National

Center for Health Statistics and its offices aod divisions and data collection methods used and include

defdtions and other sst+crial necessary for understanding the data.

Disti Eealuetwrs and Afethods Research. –Studies of new statistical methodology irduding experimental te9ts of stew ssuwey rnethx sWdks of vital statistics collection methods, new analytical

teehniqut% objectiv6evaluationsof relidility of colkcted data, and contributitnts to statistical theory.

Arsdyticel Stndiet. –Reports presenting analytical or interpretive studies based on vital and health

statistics, carrying the atsalysis further than the expository types of reports in the other series.

Docuntents msd Committee Reports. –l%sal reports of major committees concerned with vital and

health statialiis and doetstttenti- such as recornsnende&model vital registration laws and revised birth

and death C&tifiCittCS.

Series 10. Data From the Health Interview Stuvey. –Statistics on ilinem, accidental injuries, disability, use of

hospital, medical, deFItal, and other services, and other health-related topics, all based on data collected

in a continuing natiotsd household interview sumey.

Seri(’s 11. Data From >hl Hks&h Examskatwn Survey and the Health and Nutrt”tion Examination Survey. –Data

from direct examiuatk, testing, and ssteaattrensentof national sanspks of the civilian noninstitutionaiized poptdatioss provide the basis for two types of reports: (1) estimates of the medically defined “

prevalence of specific diae~ in the United States and the tiwikmtions of the popultition with respect

to physical, phyrnoiogic& and psyehcslogicaf characteristks and (2) analysis of relationships among the

variouc measurements without reference to an explicit ftite universe of persons.

Series 12. Data From the Institutionalized Population Surveys. –Discontinued effective 1975. Future reports from

these sumeys will be in Series 13.

Series 13. Data on Health Resources UWzatwn. –Statistics on the utilization of health manpower and facilities

providing ksttg-tensscare, ambulatory care, hospital care, and family planning aerviees.

Series 14. Data on Health Resossrces: Manpower and Facifitk -Statistics on the numbers, geographic distribution, and characteristics of health resources itsddssg physicians, &ntists, nurses, other health

occupations, hospitals, mtrsing homes, and outpatient facilities.

Series 20. Data on Mortafity.-Variotts statistics on mortality other than as included in regular annual or monthly

repo~ Speciai analyses by cause of death, age, ~d other demographic variables; geographic and time

serks analyses; and statistks on characteristicsof deaths not available from the vital records based on

sample auruys of those recotis.

Series21. Data on Natality, Marriage, and Diuorce. –Various statistics on natality, marriage, and divorce other

than as included in regular annual or monthly reports. Special analyses by demographic variables;

., &ogsaphIc and time series analyses; studies of fertility; and statistics on characteristics of births not

available from the vital records based on sample surveys of those records.

Sm”es 22. Data From the National Mortality and Natality Surveys.-Discontinued effective 1975. Future reports

from these sample surveys based on vitaf records will be included in Series 20 and 21, respectively.

Svm”es23. Data From the National Survey of Family Growth. –Statistics on fertility, family formation and dis-

.iz solution, family pkrming, and related maternal and infant health topics derived from a biennial survey

>, of a mtionwide probability sample of ever-married women 15-44 years of age.

For a list of titles of reports published in these series, write to: Scientific and Technical Information Branch

National Center for Health Statistics

Public Health Service

Hyattsville, Md. 20782
/

NCHS

u S DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

Put,,,. Health S,,”,..

Of ftce of Health Research, Srat#sttc$ and Technology

Nattond Center for Health Stat bsr,cs

3?00 E.w West H ,qhway

Hy,, t,v, !le Maryland 20782

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PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE $X0

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