Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| March 2016 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Missouri River Basin 

March 2016 

National - Significant Events for December 2015 - February 2016

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Vegetation Conditions

Regional - Climate Overview for December 2015 - February 2016

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

December 1, 2015 - February 29, 2016

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

December 1, 2015 - February 29, 2016

Late-February 2016 Compared to 27-year 

Average for Late-February

Highlights for the Basin

It was the warmest winter on record for the U.S. 

and many states in the region ranked in the top 

10 warmest: Kansas and Montana (3rd), Missouri 

(4th), North Dakota (6th), and Nebraska (8th).

Minimum temperatures continued to be warm 

this winter, with all Missouri Basin states except 

Colorado ranking in the top 10 warmest.

Although it was a mild winter, several storms 

impacted the region, such as historic flooding 

in Missouri in December, the Groundhog Day 

blizzard, and several high wind events. On 

February 18th, the Monarch Pass AWOS site in 

Colorado reported a wind gust of 148 mph setting 

an unofficial state record for highest wind gust.

Several locations set new records for highest 

February temperature on record. A new record 

of 73°F in Bismarck, ND on the 27th smashed the 

previous record set in 1992 by 4°F.

Although temperatures stole the spotlight this 

winter, many locations ranked in the top ten 

wettest and/or snowiest winters on record. For 

instance, Lincoln, NE had its wettest winter on 

record with 6.01 inches.

February warmth across the Basin led to 

an early start to green-up. The map above 

shows above-average photosynthetic activity 

across the Basin, particularly in eastern 

Montana and the Dakotas. The combination 

of below-average snowpack and abovenormal temperatures across the northern 

tier of the Basin has spurred this early plant 

development. The map above was produced 

by K-State’s Precision Agriculture Laboratory 

using remotely sensed data provided by the 

EROS Data Center.

It was a wet winter for much of the Basin, 

with three distinct swaths of above-normal 

precipitation running from Oklahoma through 

Illinois, Kansas through Wisconsin, and 

Colorado through South Dakota. Much of this 

precipitation occurred in December as heavy 

rain due to unseasonably warm conditions. 

Drier areas in the Basin included Wyoming 

and portions of Montana and North Dakota. 

Drought conditions developed in north-central 

Wyoming and southern Montana, which is 

somewhat unusual for this time of the year.

Above-normal temperatures continued into 

winter for the majority of the Missouri River 

Basin region. The winter started and ended 

very warm, as many states in the region 

ranked in the top 10 warmest Decembers 

and Februarys. Meanwhile, January, with a 

mix of warm and cold conditions, was nearnormal. Overall, the majority of the region had 

seasonal temperature departures that were 

more than 4°F above normal, with the largest 

departures occurring across northern portions 

of the Basin in Montana and North Dakota.

The average U.S. temperature during February was 39.5°F, 5.7°F above average, the seventh warmest 

on record. The winter U.S. temperature was 36.8°F, 4.6°F above average, and the warmest on record. 

February U.S. precipitation was 1.93 inches, 0.20 inch below average. The winter U.S. precipitation was 

8.05 inches, 1.26 inches above average.

Please Note: Material provided in this map was compiled from NOAA’s State of the Climate Reports. 

For more information please visit: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
Regional - Impacts for December 2015 - February 2016

Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| March 2016

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for April - June 2016 MO River Basin Partners

:#regionalclimateoutlooks

High Plains Regional Climate Center

www.hprcc.unl.edu

National Drought Mitigation Center

www.drought.unl.edu

National Integrated Drought Information System

www.drought.gov

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Weather Service - Central Region

www.crh.noaa.gov/crh

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Missouri River Basin Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

North Central Climate Science Center

http://revampclimate.colostate.edu

South Dakota State University Extension

http://igrow.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - Missouri River Basin 

Water Management Division

www.usace.army.mil

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

www.usbr.gov

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Natural Resources Conservation Service

www.nrcs.usda.gov

NRCS National Water & Climate Center

www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov

Regional Climate Hubs

www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/regional_hubs.htm

U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area

www.usgs.gov/water

Western Governors’ Association

www.westgov.org

Above: (Left) Forsythia in full bloom in Lincoln, Nebraska, courtesy Natalie Umphlett; (Center) winter wheat wind blast damage near Ellsworth, Kansas in February, 

courtesy Romulo Lollato; and (Right), flooding in Pacific, Missouri in December, courtesy Associated Press.

Early Signs of Spring

It was a short winter for the Basin as not only was there a late end to 

the growing season in the fall, but early signs of spring were evident in 

February. Examples include Billings, MT where crocuses were blooming 

and Yellowstone, WY where bears were coming out of hibernation. But, 

an early start to the spring may not be welcomed by all. Vegetation is 

at risk for damage as frosts are still highly likely to occur and allergy 

sufferers may not enjoy an early start to the pollen season.

Monitoring Water Resources Across the Basin

As anticipated, current snowpack is below-average for the headwaters and tributaries of the Missouri River in Montana and Wyoming and nearaverage in southern portions of the Rockies. This, in combination with warm conditions already melting lower elevation snowpack, may lead to 

decreased streamflows later on in the spring and summer. To the south, minor to moderate flooding is possible for many rivers in the lower portion 

of the Basin due to increased soil moisture and convective activity, according to the National Weather Service’s latest flood outlook. This risk, 

however, is not atypical for this time of the year. It is important to note that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is prepared for a variety of conditions 

this spring and early summer, whether conditions turn wet or dry.

Winter Wheat Breaks Dormancy

Winter wheat broke dormancy early this year, as above-normal 

temperatures prevailed in Kansas and Nebraska, according to the 

National Agriculture Statistics Service. Although freezes may pose a risk 

to the crop, the degree to which the crop may or may not be damaged 

will depend on its growth stage and the duration of any potential 

freeze. Luckily, this year’s winter wheat growing season has been much 

more successful than the last.

3-Month Precipitation and 

Temperature Outlooks 

Percent of Average Precipitation: Strong El Niños

According to the Climate Prediction Center, 

El Niño conditions continued this winter, but 

are expected to weaken through the spring 

with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions 

likely by late spring or early summer. La Niña 

conditions could develop in the fall, however 

later outlooks will be important as forecast skill 

increases in the summer months.

Over the next three months, the outlooks 

favor increased chances for above-normal 

temperatures for the majority of the Basin, 

especially across the north. The precipitation 

outlook shows increased chances for abovenormal precipitation for southern and western 

areas and below-normal precipitation for small 

portions of Montana and North Dakota.

The map above shows spring (March, April, 

and May) percent of average precipitation 

using a composite of years with strong El Niño 

conditions. Notice how the northern tier of 

the basin and portions of southern Nebraska 

and northern Kansas have tended to be drier 

during these years. Conversely, the bootheel 

of Missouri has been wetter. Although not a 

forecast for the spring, this does give some 

insight into the overall spring precipitation 

pattern during previous strong El Niño events. 

For a more detailed update on El Niño in the 

Missouri River Basin, please see: 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/pdf/ENSOMOBasin-Feb2016-Final.pdf

Valid for April - June 2016 Composite: March-May 

1958, 1966, 1973, 1983, 1992, 1998

EC: Equal chances of above, near or below normal

A: Above normal, B: Below normal

Precipitation Temperature