Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| September 2016 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Missouri River Basin 

September 2016 

National - Significant Events for June - August 2016

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Streamflow Conditions

Regional - Climate Overview for June - August 2016

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

June 1 - August 31, 2016

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

June 1 - August 31, 2016

Highlights for the Basin

The summer started off warm and dry for the 

Missouri River Basin region as every state except 

for North Dakota ranked in the top ten warmest 

Junes on record. Wyoming, South Dakota, and 

Nebraska had their 10th, 11th, and 12th driest 

Junes, respectively. 

Large differences in summertime precipitation led 

to rankings in both the top 10 wettest and top 10 

driest summers on record. For instance, Wichita, 

KS had its 3rd wettest summer, while Rawlins, WY 

had its driest summer on record.

June 21st was a record-setting day for parts of 

the region. Colorado Springs, CO and Casper, 

WY both set new records for earliest 100°F day. 

Interestingly, Colorado Springs has hit 100°F only 7 

other times in the station’s 123-year history. 

Heavy rainfall events were common across lower 

portions of the Basin this summer. Storms brought 

flash flooding to the Kansas City metro area on 

August 26th where some parts of the city received 

up to 6.00 inches of rain in only 2 hours. A flash 

flood emergency was issued by the National 

Weather Service for downtown Kansas City for the 

first time.

The disparity in precipitation across the 

Missouri River Basin region this summer 

resulted in much below-normal streamflows 

in upper parts of the Basin, such as Montana 

and Wyoming, and above-normal streamflows 

in lower portions of the Basin including Iowa, 

Missouri, and Nebraska.

The sporadic heavy rain events in the lower 

part of the Basin resulted in the U.S. Army 

Corps of Engineers maintaining lower-thannormal mainstem releases throughout the late 

summer and fall.

After a wet spring, the summer started dry 

with large areas of the region receiving 50% 

of normal precipitation, at most, in June. July 

and August, however, were characterized by 

extremes in both wet and dry conditions. For 

some areas, like northern Wyoming, southern 

Montana, and western South Dakota, ongoing 

dryness caused drought conditions to develop 

and/or worsen this summer. Meanwhile, 

other areas of the region, including portions 

of Kansas, North Dakota, and Missouri, 

experienced flooding from heavy rainfall.

Summer temperatures were largely near 

normal for the Missouri River Basin region 

with most locations ending the season within 

2°F degrees of normal. Scattered pockets were 

in the 2-4°F above-normal range, however. 

The season started off very warm with June 

temperature departures in excess of 4°F 

above normal across a majority of the region. 

Consequently, most states ranked in the top 

10 warmest Junes on record. July and August 

were more moderate, with most of the region 

experiencing departures within 2°F of normal.

The average U.S. temperature during August was 73.6°F, 1.5°F above average. The summer U.S. 

temperature was 73.5°F, 2.1°F above average, and the fifth highest on record. August U.S. precipitation 

was 3.74 inches, 0.85 inch above average, and the second wettest on record. The summer 

precipitation was 8.92 inches, 0.60 inch above average. 

Please Note: Material provided in this map was compiled from NOAA’s State of the Climate Reports. 

For more information please visit: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc

Missouri Basin Streamflow

August 2016
Regional - Impacts for June - August 2016

Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| September 2016

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for October - December 2016 MO River Basin Partners

:#regionalclimateoutlooks

High Plains Regional Climate Center

www.hprcc.unl.edu

National Drought Mitigation Center

www.drought.unl.edu

National Integrated Drought Information System

www.drought.gov

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Weather Service - Central Region

www.crh.noaa.gov/crh

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Missouri River Basin Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

North Central Climate Science Center

http://nccsc.colostate.edu

South Dakota State University Extension

http://igrow.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - Missouri River Basin 

Water Management Division

www.usace.army.mil

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

www.usbr.gov

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Natural Resources Conservation Service

www.nrcs.usda.gov

NRCS National Water & Climate Center

www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov

Regional Climate Hubs

www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/regional_hubs.htm

U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area

www.usgs.gov/water

Western Governors’ Association

www.westgov.org

Above: (Top) UNL’s Steve Spomer searches for butterflies, which have been sparse 

across the Great Plains this summer, photo courtesy Troy Fedderson; (Middle) 

fish kill in Montana, photo courtesy Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks; and (Bottom), 

according to the South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks, South Dakota pheasant 

populations were down 20% from last year and 41% from the 10-year average, 

photo courtesy USGS Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit.

Mixed Impacts to Agriculture this Summer

Overall, it has been a successful growing season for many crops, 

with the potential for record yields of corn and soybeans in the U.S. 

However, for a third year in a row, farm incomes are expected to be 

down, according to the USDA Economic Research Service. The decline is 

due to higher yields combined with lower commodity prices. 

Frequent rainfall events in northeastern North Dakota caused issues for 

potato and sugar beet producers. These wet conditions led to concerns 

for disease, particularly for hail and wind damaged crops. On the other 

end of the spectrum, dry conditions impacted producers in Montana 

where dryland hay harvest was down 30-50% in some areas, according 

to the National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Challenging Season for Bird Breeding

Dry conditions in northern areas of the region were a challenge 

for birds this summer. According to the American Bird Conservancy, 

grassland songbirds ended their breeding season about two weeks 

early. A scarce supply of insects forced birds to travel farther to find 

food for their young, which resulted in smaller than usual nestlings and, 

in some cases, failed nests. 

Unprecedented Fish Kill on Yellowstone River

A parasitic disease caused the deaths of thousands of whitefish in the 

Yellowstone River in Montana. The disease can be exacerbated by high 

water temperatures and low flows, which has been an ongoing issue 

this summer. Nearly 200 miles of the river were closed in response to 

the parasite, impacting tourism and recreation along the river. As of 

this writing, some portions of the river have been reopened, but others 

remain closed.

3-Month Precipitation and 

Temperature Outlooks 

According to the Climate Prediction Center, 

ENSO-neutral conditions are present and 

are slightly favored to continue this fall and 

winter. Because conditions no longer favor the 

development of a La Niña event within the 

next six months, the La Niña Watch has been 

cancelled by NOAA.

Over the next three months, outlooks 

favor increased chances for above-normal 

temperatures for the entire basin. Abovenormal temperatures may aid in crop drydown 

and could also help dry out fields. The 

precipitation outlook shows increased chances 

for above-normal precipitation for much of 

Montana, which could help alleviate drought 

conditions there.

Valid for October - December 2016

EC: Equal chances of above, near or below normal

A: Above normal, B: Below normal

Precipitation Temperature

Soil Moisture 

Conditions

09/11/2016

Modeled soil moisture conditions at the start 

of the fall indicated wet soils in southern parts 

of the region across Kansas and Missouri, as 

well as areas of north-central Montana and 

northeastern North Dakota. Wet soils this time 

of the year can be challenging to producers as 

harvest activities begin. Edible bean farmers in 

North Dakota have already reported significant 

losses due to wet conditions and soggy soils. 

Additionally, with above-normal precipitation 

favored for lower parts of the Basin during 

October, an increased chance for flooding 

across Kansas and Missouri could exist. This 

map shows the total column soil moisture 

anomaly in millimeters, from a NOAA model 

called NLDAS.