Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | December 2017 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Missouri River Basin 

December 2017 

National - Significant Events for September - November 2017

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Drought

Regional - Climate Overview for September - November 2017

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

September 1 - November 30, 2017

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

September 1 - November 30, 2017

Highlights for the Basin

Fall temperatures were above average for the 

majority of the Basin; however, the season ended 

quite warm, with many western states ranking in 

the top 10 warmest Novembers on record. This 

included Colorado (record warmest) and Wyoming 

(8th warmest). Precipitation, on the other hand, 

varied widely throughout the fall. This resulted in 

no top 10 rankings for wettest or driest fall.

Missouri had its 13th driest fall on record, which 

was accompanied by its 5th driest September and 

11th driest November. Only 5% of the state was in 

drought conditions at the start of the season, but 

this increased to nearly 40% by the end. 

On October 2-3, an early season snowstorm hit 

northern Montana bringing heavy, wet snow, 

which helped to reduce fire activity in the region. 

Havre, MT set a new 2-day snowfall record for 

October, with 13.0 inches.

Late November was extremely warm, with 

hundreds of records broken. Denver, CO had its 

warmest November day since its records began 

in 1872, with a temperature of 81°F on the 27th. 

This broke the old record of 80°F, set just last year.

Significant changes occurred to the U.S. 

Drought Monitor this fall. Drought conditions 

developed across south-central Kansas 

and southern Missouri. As precipitation 

deficits mounted, numerous impacts to the 

agricultural sector were reported, in addition 

to decreased streamflows. In the Northern 

Plains, drought conditions continued this 

fall, but many improvements occurred. For 

instance, 91% of the state of Montana was 

experiencing drought at the beginning of 

the season, compared to 53% at the end of 

November. Conditions also largely improved 

across the Dakotas.

Precipitation varied across the Basin this fall, 

with extremes on both ends of the spectrum. 

Drier areas included western Colorado, 

southern Missouri, and portions of the 

Dakotas where precipitation totals were less 

than 50% of normal. Meanwhile, precipitation 

in excess of 200% of normal occurred within 

a swath from southern Colorado through 

western Kansas and central Nebraska, as well 

as western portions of Montana and Wyoming. 

These extremes caused both improvements 

and degradations in drought conditions across 

the Basin.

Overall, fall temperatures were above normal, 

with slightly below-normal temperatures 

across the northern tier of the Basin. The 

September and October temperature patterns 

were similar, with above-normal temperatures 

in the east and below-normal temperatures 

in the west. November started off quite cold, 

but quickly rebounded with record breaking 

warmth during the last two weeks. Despite 

this, much of North Dakota ended the month 

in the 4-6°F below normal range. Areas of 

Colorado and Wyoming, however, had monthly 

departures up to 10°F above normal.

U.S. Drought Monitor Class Change

3 Months: September 5 - November 28, 2017

The average U.S. temperature during November was 45.1°F, 3.4°F above average, the seventh 

warmest on record. The autumn U.S. temperature was 55.7°F, or 2.1°F above average and the 10th 

highest on record. November U.S. precipitation total was 1.58 inches, 0.65 inch below average, and 

the 19th driest on record. The autumn precipitation total was 6.43 inches, 0.45 inch below average.

Please Note: Material provided in this map was compiled from NOAA’s State of the Climate Reports. 

For more information please visit: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
Regional - Impacts for September - November 2017

Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | December 2017

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for January - March 2018 MO River Basin Partners

:#regionalclimateoutlooks

High Plains Regional Climate Center

www.hprcc.unl.edu

Kansas State, Department of Agronomy

www.agronomy.k-state.edu

National Drought Mitigation Center

www.drought.unl.edu

National Integrated Drought Information System

www.drought.gov

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Weather Service - Central Region

www.crh.noaa.gov/crh

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Missouri River Basin Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

North Central Climate Science Center

http://nccsc.colostate.edu

South Dakota State University Extension

http://igrow.org

American Association of State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - Missouri River Basin 

Water Management Division

www.usace.army.mil

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Regional Climate Hubs

www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/regional_hubs.htm

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

www.usbr.gov

U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area

www.usgs.gov/water

Western Governors’ Association

www.westgov.org

Above: (Top) Dry stock ponds in Hettinger County, North Dakota, photo 

courtesy North Dakota State University Extension; (Middle) painted lady 

butterflies on sedum flowers, photo courtesy Natalie Umphlett; and (Bottom) 

corn ears, which fell to the ground after high winds in Nebraska, photo credit 

Jenny Rees, Nebraska Extension.

Large Butterfly Migration Across the Plains

According to Nebraska Extension, conditions were just right across 

California and northern Mexico last winter and spring to create a stunning 

butterfly migration this fall. Painted Lady butterflies, in particular, could 

be seen in large numbers as they migrated across the Plains and Midwest 

during the month of September. Butterfly lovers could easily find butterflies 

in home gardens across the region. However, the butterflies were not a 

welcome sight everywhere, as the caterpillars of Painted Lady butterflies 

fed on soybean pods, causing damage in some areas.

Drought Continues to Cause Impacts

Although the growing season has come to a close, a number of droughtrelated agricultural impacts continue to be reported. At the end of 

November, 38% of winter wheat was rated in poor to very poor condition 

in South Dakota. Meanwhile, numerous issues were reported in Missouri, 

where many producers were moving cattle and/or hauling water because 

of low stock pond levels. 

Additionally, bird populations were down significantly across the Northern 

Plains this fall, including pheasants, grouse, and Hungarian partridges. In 

North Dakota, this year’s pheasant count was the lowest in 20 years.

3-Month Precipitation and 

Temperature Outlooks 

According to the Climate Prediction Center, 

current La Niña conditions are likely to 

continue through winter, with a transition to 

ENSO-neutral conditions possible in spring.

Through March, above-normal precipitation 

is favored across much of the northern parts 

of the region, as well as portions of Missouri, 

while increased chances for below-normal 

precipitation exist across the south. For 

temperatures, below-normal conditions are 

favored to the north, while above-normal 

conditions could occur across portions of 

Wyoming, Colorado, and Kansas. For more 

information on La Niña in the Basin, see: 

https://hprcc.unl.edu/pdf/LaNina-MOBasin2017-Final.pdf. 

Valid for January - March 2018

EC: Equal chances of above, near or below normal

A: Above normal, B: Below normal

Precipitation Temperature

Soil Moisture 

Conditions

11/30/2017

Persistent drought conditions over the past 

summer and fall continued to impact soil 

moisture conditions, with drier soils across 

much of the Northern Plains. Dry soils were 

also evident across Missouri, eastern Kansas, 

and western Colorado, where drought 

conditions have recently emerged. Meanwhile, 

wetter soils were present across the western 

halves of Montana and Wyoming, as well as 

eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and central 

Nebraska. Soil moisture at this time of the year 

can be indicative of conditions at the start of 

the spring - given that the soils have already 

frozen. This map shows the percent of average 

soil moisture conditions from a NOAA model 

called NLDAS.

High Winds Down Corn Across Nebraska

A number of conditions led to thousands of acres of damaged corn across 

Nebraska this fall. According to Nebraska Extension, high heat during the 

pollination stage led to weakened shanks, while cooler conditions in August 

produced large, heavy ears. Heavy rains in early October caused stalk rot, 

which further weakened the crop. When high winds struck the region later 

in the month, stalks either snapped, or corn was stripped to the ground. 

Generally, losses were in the 20-100 bushels per acre range.