Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Great Lakes Region

June 2014

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - June 2014 - 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

 Great Lakes Significant Events - for March - May 2014

Great Lakes Ice Cover

Precipitation & Snowfall

Regional Climate Overview - for March - May 2014

Following an unusually cold winter in the Great Lakes region, 

Spring 2014 was also cooler than normal, with this spring 

coming in as the 5th coldest on record since 1948 over the 

Great Lakes. Great Lakes ice cover reached its maximum extent 

of 92.5% on March 4, making it the second greatest amount of 

ice cover since record keeping began in 1973. 

Wet conditions across the Great Lakes basin this spring 

resulted in water levels rising more than average on each of the 

Great Lakes. After more than a decade of low water levels, Lake 

Superior has risen to above-average levels not seen since 1997. 

Lake Michigan-Huron, while still below average, began June 

with the highest levels since 2009 for this time of year.

Several cities across the Great Lakes basin experienced record 

snowfall and/or cold this winter and spring. Detroit, Michigan 

and neighboring Windsor, Ontario received 241 cm (94.9 in) 

and 248.8 cm (98 in) of snow, respectively. This broke the 

previous snowfall season record for Detroit set back in 1880-

81 and ranked 3rd for Windsor. Numerous Ontario locations 

including Sault Ste. Marie, Kitchener/Waterloo, and Ottawa set 

new records for coldest mean temperature for March.

Severe flooding occurred along the Moira River in eastern Ontario in mid-April as a result of significant snow melt and rainfall (86.5 mm (3.4 

in)) that fell from April 4-15, causing infrastructure and property damage in and around Belleville, Ontario. In mid-May, flash flooding occurred 

in the Cleveland, Ohio area, after severe thunderstorms produced torrential rainfall, measuring more than 10 cm (4 in) in some areas. A major 

interstate around Cleveland was closed due to high water, and several people were reported to be trapped in homes and vehicles.

The maximum extent of ice cover on 

the Great Lakes this winter and spring 

was 92.5%, the 2nd greatest since 1973 

(record is 94.7% in 1979). All lakes 

but Ontario became 90% or more ice 

covered, which has not occurred since 

1994. Ice cover in late May on Lake 

Superior (1.9% on May 31) has occurred 

only 3 other times during the 40 year 

period of record.

Spring 2014 was the 5th coldest 

since 1948 over the Great Lakes, 

with temperatures 1° to 4°C (2° 

to 7°F) below normal. March was 

2nd coldest, with temperatures 3° 

to 7°C (5° to 12°F) below normal, 

while April was the 8th coldest. 

May temperatures ranged from 2°C 

(4°F) above normal in the eastern 

parts of the basin to 2°C (4°F) below 

normal in western parts. Regionally, 

spring was unusually cold, but 

globally, March was 4th warmest 

and April tied for record warmest.

Water level statistics based on 1918-2013. 

Temperature: Dep. from Normal (°) 

Temperature

Great Lakes Water Levels

Levels on all of the Great Lakes are above last year’s water levels 

at the beginning of June. Wet, cold weather contributed to Lake 

Superior finishing the quarter 14 cm (5.5 in) above the longterm average, 32 cm (12.6 in) above last year’s level. The other 

lakes all received higher than normal water supplies in April and 

May including Lake Ontario, which set a new record for greatest 

increase in water levels during April. At the beginning of June, Lake 

Michigan-Huron remained 17 cm (6.7 in) below average, but 32 

cm (12.6 in) higher than this time last year. Lake Erie finished the 

quarter 8 cm (3.1 in) above average while Lake Ontario was 13 cm 

(5.1 in) above average. 

The Great Lakes basin saw 

96% of its average precipitation 

for this quarter. However, 

while March was dry at 47% of 

average, April and May were 

wet seeing 122% and 110% of 

average, respectively. Each of 

the lake basins were at least 

90% of normal, except Erie 

at 80%. Spring snowfall was 

above normal, with the heaviest 

accumulations along western 

Lake Superior and Lake Erie, and 

southern Lake Michigan.

Ice cover: Difference from Avg. (%)

Map: precip normals based on 1981-2010. 

Text: precip normals based on 1900-2010.

Long-term average based on 1973-2013.

Temperature normals based on 1981-2010.

Precipitation: Percent of Normal (%)

Mar. 1-May 31, 

2014

Mar. 1-May 31, 

2014

Mar. 1-May 31, 

2014
Regional Impacts - for March - May 2014

Regional Outlook - for July - September 2014 Great Lakes Region Partners

Environment Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

www.agr.gc.ca 

Midwestern Regional Climate Center

www.mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Great Lakes Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.nws.gov

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

www.glerl.noaa.gov

NOAA Great Lakes Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

North Central River Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Great Lakes Integrated Sciences & Assessments

www.glisa.umich.edu

US Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District

www.lre.usace.army.mil

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

Great Lakes Water Level Dashboard

www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/now/wlevels/dbd/

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Contact for NOAA: 

Molly Woloszyn: mollyw@illinois.edu

Samantha Borisoff: samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu

Contact for Environment Canada: 

greatlakes-grandslacs@ec.gc.ca

enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca

Great Lakes Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

 - June 2014 - 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=F5329B03-1

Contact Information

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and 

Environment Canada are predicting a greater 

chance for below-normal temperatures for 

July through September across western 

portions of their respective Great Lakes 

basins, with equal chances elsewhere. The 

outlook for below-normal temperatures is 

partially a result of the lingering effects of 

the extensive ice cover and below-normal 

temperature of the Great Lakes, particularly 

Lake Superior.

For precipitation, the Climate Prediction 

Center and Environment Canada are both 

forecasting equal chances for above-, 

below-, or near-normal precipitation in their 

respective basins for July through September. 

The extensive ice cover caused delays 

in getting U.S./Canadian shipping lines 

open for the spring. On March 25, the 

Soo Locks on the St. Marys River opened, 

marking the start of the shipping season, 

but some companies waited until April 

to allow for the ice to melt. To combat 

the extensive ice cover, the U.S. and 

Canadian Coast Guards did nearly three 

times as much ice breaking this winter 

in the Great Lakes than normal. In fact, 10,597 hours (nwi.com) of 

ice breaking were needed. Ice breaking operations were completed 

on May 16, 3 weeks later than last year. Ice breakers were requested 

for several ships that were trying to get salt to critical areas for snow 

removal.

Ship traffic in April and May were 35% and 19% lower (respectively) 

when compared to 2012, which was a low ice year (NOAAPORT). 

Lake Level Outlook 

Current projections for July through September 

indicate that levels on Lake Superior and Lake 

Erie are expected to remain 5-10 cm (2-4 in) 

above average unless exceedingly wet or dry 

water supply conditions are experienced. While 

Lake Michigan-Huron is most likely to remain 

below average, a very wet summer could bring 

it to average levels. Lake Ontario is expected 

to fall a few centimeters below average unless 

Outlook from the US Army Corps of Engineers and above-average water supplies are received. 

Environment Canada (July-September 2014) 

Temperature & 

Precipitation Outlook

The U.S. Coast Guard ice breaker 

Mackinaw; Photo: U.S. Coast 

Guard (via Flickr)

Great Lakes Shipping

Industry

Agriculture

Infrastructure

The largest steel mill in the U.S., located in Gary, Indiana, had to 

temporarily close in early April as it was waiting on its shipment of 

iron ore, which was delayed due to extensive ice cover on the Great 

Lakes. The Lakes Carriers Association says that the ice cover this 

season dramatically slowed coal shipments in April. Loadings totaled 

only 995,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 55% compared to last year. 

With record snowfall across the region, 

municipalities had to deal with increased 

operational and infrastructure costs. 

Ann Arbor, Michigan had to use over $3 

million from its cash reserves to address 

“severe winter operational expenses and 

infrastructure damage” (mlive.com). 

Ice shoves (strong winds pushing ice 

ashore) caused property damage across 

areas of the Great Lakes this spring, including along Lake Superior in 

Michigan (Marquette and the Keweenaw Peninsula) and along Lake 

Winnebago in Oshkosh, Wisconsin. Also, a concrete seawall cracked and 

crumbled under the force of strong waves on Lake Ontario in late April.

Below normal temperatures over the winter and well into the spring 

delayed the spring snowmelt and field operations across the Great Lakes 

region. In Ontario, field operations were delayed by up to two weeks but 

by late May, warmer temperatures resulted in improved conditions for 

agriculture operations and the delays were reduced. In Michigan, flooded 

fields caused issues for farmers and delayed planting as well. At the end 

of May, some crops in Michigan were past the optimal planting window, 

leaving farmers concerned about crop maturity this fall. 

Ice shove in Menominee, MI on 

4/13/14; Photo: weather.com contributor mike5501

Harmful Algal Bloom 

Outlook

Should the Lake Erie 

basin receive above 

average precipitation 

and associated runoff 

next quarter, this could 

lead to a larger than 

average harmful bluegreen algae bloom in 

Lake Erie this summer. Longer storm seasons 

and more severe storms are a contributing 

factor to excessive amounts of phosphorus 

entering the lake, mostly attributed to urban 

and agricultural runoff, which feeds the algal 

blooms. It is too soon to tell if the 2014 algal 

bloom will approach the size of the 2011 

bloom, the largest in Lake Erie’s history. 

Lake Erie algal bloom on 

9/20/13; Ohio Sea Grant