Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| December 2014 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Missouri River Basin 

December 2014 

National - Significant Events for September - November 2014

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Drought Conditions

Regional - Climate Overview for September - November 2014

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

September 1 - November 30, 2014

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

September 1 - November 30, 2014

3-Month Class Change

11/25/2014

Highlights for the Basin

October was the first month in over a year that 

the majority of the Basin experienced above 

normal temperatures. States ranking in the top 10 

warmest Octobers since 1895 included Montana 

(3), Colorado (6), and Wyoming (9). November 

was cooler with Missouri (5), Iowa (9), and South 

Dakota (10) ranking in the top 10 coolest.

An early September winter storm brought the 

earliest one inch snowfall to parts of the Black 

Hills with snowfall totals up to 8 inches.

A 1 in 200 year rain event occurred in the 

Lincoln, NE area September 30 - October 1. 

Rainfall observations of up to about 9 inches were 

reported. Local flooding occurred as a result.

A mid-November Arctic blast brought extreme 

temperatures to the Basin. Average temperatures 

the week of the 11th-17th were over 25°F below 

normal across much of the Basin. Thousands of 

daily records were broken nationwide.

Although several smaller events have occurred, 

numerous locations in North Dakota have failed to 

reach their first one inch snowfall.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 

rainfall early in the season allowed for 

the improvement of drought conditions 

across Colorado and Kansas. However, low 

precipitation totals over the past three 

months led to an introduction of abnormally 

dry conditions (D0) across eastern parts of 

the Dakotas and south-central Nebraska. 

The map above shows the locations of these 

improvements and degradations to the U.S. 

Drought Monitor. Luckily, at this time of the 

year, impacts from dryness are minimal.

Precipitation varied this fall. September was 

largely near normal, while upper portions 

of the Basin were dry in October and wet 

in November. Lower portions were wet in 

October and dry in November. Ultimately, 

the wet areas included the Black Hills, the 

Nebraska panhandle, and western Wyoming 

where over 150% of normal precipitation 

fell. However, eastern areas of the Dakotas 

received at most 50% of normal precipitation. 

By the end of November, snowpack in the 

Rockies was near normal. 

It was a roller coaster of temperatures for the 

Missouri River Basin states this fall. After a 

fairly average September, October was quite 

warm. This warmth continued into November 

until an Arctic airmass moved into the region, 

bringing record-setting cold. The end result 

was a fall which averaged out to near normal 

for the majority of the Basin with slightly 

above normal temperatures to the west and 

slightly below normal temperatures to the 

east. Only isolated areas exceeded 2°F above 

or below normal. 

The average US temperature during November was 39.3°F, 2.4°F below average. The autumn US 

temperature was 54.1°F, 0.6°F above average. November US precipitation was 2.07”, 0.16” below 

average. The autumn precipitation total was 7.12”, 0.24” above average.
Regional - Impacts for September - November 2014

Contact: Natalie Umphlett (numphlett2@unl.edu) Missouri River Basin Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| December 2014 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for January - March 2015 MO River Basin Partners

High Plains Regional Climate Center

www.hprcc.unl.edu

Kansas State, Department of Agronomy

www.agronomy.k-state.edu

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Weather Service - Central Region

www.crh.noaa.gov/crh

National Climatic Data Center

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Missouri River Basin Forecast Center

www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

National Drought Mitigation Center

www.drought.unl.edu

National Integrated Drought Information

System (NIDIS)

www.drought.gov

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

South Dakota State University Extension

http://igrow.org

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - Missouri River Basin 

Water Management Division

www.usace.army.mil

U.S. Department of Agriculture

www.usda.gov

NRCS National Water & Climate Center

www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov

Regional Climate Hubs

www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/regional_hubs.htm

U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area

www.usgs.gov/water

Western Governors’ Association

www.westgov.org

:#regionalclimateoutlooks

3-Month Precipitation and 

Temperature Outlooks 

Soil Moisture

Conditions 

ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) neutral 

conditions were ongoing this fall. The 3-month 

outlooks indicate increased chances for above 

normal temperatures in western portions of 

the Basin and below normal temperatures in 

the south. The precipitation outlook shows 

equal chances for above, below, or near 

normal precipitation for much of the Basin 

except for increased chances of dry conditions 

in western Montana and wetter conditions in 

the south.

While El Niño conditions are still likely to 

develop later this winter, these conditions 

should be weak. Thus, the impacts of this 

potential development are unclear at this time. 

Modeled soil moisture conditions at the end 

of fall generally indicated wetter soils to the 

north and west and drier soils to the east 

and south. Conditions at this time of year can 

provide some insight for the spring because 

once the soil freezes, changes in soil moisture 

are unlikely to occur. Thus, the drier soils in 

the eastern Dakotas may be beneficial going 

into spring as wet soils in recent years have 

been a limiting factor for planting. Drier soils 

in these areas will also reduce flood risk going 

into spring for the James and Red Rivers. This 

map shows the total column soil moisture 

anomaly in millimeters, from a NOAA model 

called NLDAS.

Valid for January-March 2014 12/14/2014

Top: Departure from normal temperature for November 11-17.

Bottom: Wheat damage in west-central Kansas following the 

November cold. Image courtesy of Mary Knapp.

Agriculture

Fall brought near perfect harvest conditions to the Missouri River Basin states. 

These warm and dry conditions were needed due to late developing crops. 

Unfortunately, there could be problems for winter wheat throughout the plains 

due to the sharp transition from warm to extremely cold temperatures and the 

duration of that cold weather. 

Record high cattle prices have led to thefts in Kansas. Farmers and ranchers 

have been advised to brand their cattle and install cameras to monitor their 

property. The high prices are a long term impact of drought, which has driven 

the nationwide cattle herd to low numbers. According to the Farmers & Ranchers 

Livestock Commission, steers were selling between $1,300 and $2,000.

EC: Equal chances of above, near or below normal

A: Above normal, B: Below normal

Precipitation Temperature

Horticulture

An early killing freeze in September occurred along parts of the Front Range in 

Colorado. The last frost in these areas occurred in mid-May, making this one of the 

shortest growing seasons in decades. After this early freeze, milder weather set in 

which was then followed by the Arctic blast of November. Impacts of this event are 

unknown at this time; however there is a possibility of considerable tree and shrub 

damage. 

Recreation and Tourism

It was a slow start to the winter resort season in Colorado as temperatures were 

too warm to make snow in October and snowfall in the mountains was lacking in 

November. It was not until just before Thanksgiving that the snowpack came up to 

near normal in most areas.

Fewer deer hunting permits were issued in South Dakota this year as deer counts 

were down as a result of epizootic hemorrhagic disease. This disease was an issue 

during the 2012 drought.