# MWCOG

**Using a Time-Matched Hourly Marginal Emissions**  **Tool in Metropolitan**

EPA Webinar on 

## Washington

Quantifying Emission Impacts of Clean Energy Initiatives Jeff King, MWCOG jking@mwcog.org

Colin High, RSG Inc. chigh@rsginc.com

# Contents

Jeff King, MWCOG: (Slides 2-6)

• MWAQC Overview

• EERE as a Control Measure for the Ozone and PM SIPs

• Moving Beyond the Voluntary Bundle & Success Factors

Colin High, RSG Inc.: (Slides 7-15 )

• Tools for Measuring Avoided Emissions from EERE

• RSG TMM Model – Introduction

• TMM Model Overview, Methodology & Details

• Comparison of Emission Rates

• MWCOG Avoided Emissions Calculator & Lessons learnt

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### Metropolitan Washington Air Quality Committee (MWAQC)
**Created, 1992**

• Metropolitan Washington Air Quality Committee conducts air quality planning for the Washington nonattainment region.

• MWAQC includes state agency representation from Maryland, DC, and Virginia

• Local Government representation

• Supported by Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) and Air and Climate Public Advisory Committee (ACPAC)

• MWAQC is staffed by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

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### EERE as a Control Measure for the Ozone and PM SIPs

• Wind Power Purchase in 1-hour Ozone SIP

• Expanded Program for 8-hour Ozone SIP and

PM2.5 SIP

– More wind, added Renewable Portfolio Standard, and Energy Efficiency, including Green Buildings and LED Traffic Signals



### • Followed EPA Voluntary Measures Guidance

• Included as part of the Voluntary Bundle

• Needed Tool to Estimate Emission Reduction from the Energy Impact

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## Moving Beyond the Voluntary Bundle

New State Energy and Climate Plans Involve Significant New Energy Initiatives

Maryland

– EmPower Maryland

– Maryland Climate Action

Plan

– RGGI



### The District

– District Sustainable Energy Utility

– DC Climate Plan 

### Virginia

– Virginia Energy Plan

– Virginia Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning Law

– Virginia Climate Plan

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# Success Factors

• State and Local Leadership

• Enabling Regulations and Guidance

– NOx SIP Call/CAIR/CATR (action needed)

– EPA Voluntary Measures Guidance

– EPA Roadmap (pending)



## • Commitment to Tracking and Reporting

• NEEP EM&V Forum

• DOE/NREL: Funding and Technical
Assistance Grant

• MWCOG Avoided Emission Calculator

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## Tools for Measuring Avoided Emissions from EERE

• Accurate avoided emissions measurement requires the use of a marginal emissions model that takes account of the time variability of EERE impacts on the grid.

• The model must be applied to the power market area that is impacted by the EERE changes

• MWCOG used the RSG Time Matched Marginal (TMM) Emission model. This was supported by DOE funding.

• RSG built a calculator based on the TMM model that enables MWCOG and local governments to quickly evaluate the avoided emissions from the most common EERE measures in the region. New measures can easily be added to the calculator.

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## What is the RSG TMM Emissions model ?

• The TMM model is an 8760 hour historical dispatch model that captures the economic dispatch and reliability decisions made by the electric grid system operator in order to calculate avoided emissions from EERE on an hourly basis.

• The time matching is based on actual or simulated 8760 hour energy savings or generation data from EERE projects or programs in a power market.

• The model is available for all US power markets, states and regions.

• The model has been applied to the analysis of more than 250 EERE projects and programs in the US.

• Model applications include almost all existing and new EERE technologies, nuclear power plants, IGCC coal plants with carbon sequestration, battery storage, flywheels and electric vehicle charging.

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# TMM Model Overview

0 10 20 30 40 50 Generation

in GWh **Peak**

**Intermediate**

**Base** Oil

Gas

Coal Oil Gas

Coal Nuclear

Oil Gas The TMM model calculates the grid marginal emission rates from fossil fueled units hour by hour for every day of the year.

The chart shows the Base, Intermediate and Peak Load on a typical day

and the unit fuel mix in a Mid-Atlantic Power Market.

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# TMM Model Methodology

**1. IDENTIFY**  the marginal fossil fuelfired units in a power market for each hour by using a load-following algorithm to calculate the incremental marginal emission rates.

**2. COMPILE**  an annual hourly load profile of the energy savings or generation for the EERE technology and region under study.

**3. “TIME-MATCH”**  the EERE hourly load profile against the marginal emissions profile on an hourly basis.

**4. CALCULATE**  total avoided emissions from annual savings or generation on an hourly, monthly or annual

basis.

Matching the changes in energy savings or generation provides **greater precision** in measurement.

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# TMM Model Details

Measures the **operational changes** in air emissions resulting from changes in load or generation on the regional grid.

• Based on publicly available data from US EPA, US DOE - EIA, ISOs and industry sources.

• Emissions monitoring data for every hour of the year for all the US fossil-fueled generating
units large enough to be required to report emissions in the EPA CEM program.

• Includes CO2, CH4, N20, NOx, SO2 and particulate matter (PM2.5) .

• Sensitive to regional boundaries which
change with power demand and

transmission constraints.

• Typically applied to major power markets (EPA eGRID sub-regions) but can also be

analyzed down to the state, sub-state
level or utility service area.

11 **Major Power Markets (EPA eGRID sub-regions)**

# Comparison of Emission Rates

The chart compares CO 2 emission rates using two eGRID methods and the TMM model.

RSG’s TMM model marginal emission rates are higher than published eGRID rates because eGRID emission rates were not designed to be used as marginal emission rates.

12Inp 

# MWCOG Avoided Emissions Calculator

**Dashboard**

**Inputs: Outputs:** 

**Annual Electricity Savings:**  **Electricity Savings**

**Unit:**

1 MWh 1917.11955 Pounds per MWh

**Avoided Emissions**

**Rate Unit:**

Pounds 1917.11955 Pounds

**Rate Type: Calculations (Rates Taken from "Rate Lookup" Sheet):** 

Time Matched Marginal Emissions Rate: Time Matched Marginal Rate * (1 kWh/1000 MWh)

**Region: Measure Type:**  Emissions: Time Matched Marginal Rate * 1 Pounds per MWh * (1 kWh/1000 MWh)

DC Wind

**Pollutant: Time Period:** 

Carbon_Dioxide Annual Avoided Emissions Rate:

Avoided Emissions:

(Choose for Non-Baseload and System Average Rates Only) (Choose for Time Matched Marginal Rate Only) Show Calculations

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## Lessons Learned from the MWCOG Experience

• The MWCOG obtained more accurate avoided emission measurements compared to previous use of eGRID output emission rates.

• Using the TMM model marginal analysis results in higher avoided emissions estimates which shows that
EERE measures can be more cost effective.

• With the use of a model based calculator, routine analysis can be completed by agency staff without
additional runs of the TMM model.

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# Contact Information

For more information: http://www.mwcog.org/environment/air/EERE/default.asp

**Jeffrey King Principal Environmental Planner**  **Metropolitan Washington Council of**

**Governments**

**202-962-3238 direct jking@mwcog.org** 

**www.mwcog.org**

**Colin High Co-Founder and Principal Consultant**  **Resource Systems Group, Inc.**

**Office 802.295.4999 x 154 chigh@rsginc.com**  **www.rsginc.com**

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