Resources for the 21st Century: 

Summary and Conclusions of the 

International Centennial Symposium 

of the U.S. Geological Survey 

By Frank C. Whitmore, Jr. 

GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CIRCULAR 857 

Washington 1981 
United States Debartment of the Interior 

JAMES G. WATT, Secretary 

Geological Survey 

Dallas L. Peck, Director 

Library of Congress catalog-card No. 81-600163 

Free on appl1cat1on to 

604 South Pickett 

01stributwn. US. Geolog1cal Survey 

Alexandna, V1rgm1a 22304 
CONTENTS 

Page 

Introduction~~~~~~~~~~~~~- ~~ _ ~ ~~ ~~~~ ~ ~ ~~~~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~~ ~ _ ~~~~~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ 1 

Purpose and scope of the International Centennial 

Symposium ~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 3 

Nonrenewable resources ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~ 5 

Evaluation of resources and reserves~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~ 5 

Minerals ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ -~ -~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 5 

Energy sources~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 10 

OiL~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 10 

Natural gas ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 10 

Coal~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 12 

Nuclear energy~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 12 

Geothermal energy---~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 12 

Energy in the future ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 12 

Resource distribution ~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 14 

Water and people~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 19 

Page 

People and the environment_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 24 

Earthquakes~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~_~~~_~~~~~~ 24 

Volcanoes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ -~~ -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ -~~~~~~~~~~ 25 

Understanding and guiding man's influence on the 

environment_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 27 

New maps for the world~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 32 

The developing countries in a changing world~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~ 35 

The future ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~ 38 

Predictions ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~ ~~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ _ ~~~~~~ ~ ~~~~~ ~~ ~~~~~~~~ ~~ ~~~ 3 8 

The way ahead~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 39 

National representatives and invited speakers, International 

Centennial Symposium ~~~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~-~~ 40 

Intergovernmental and international representatives, 

International Centennial Symposium~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 41 

Ill 

Resources for the 21st Century: 

Summary and Conclusions of the 

International Centennial Symposium 

of the U.S. Geological Survey 

By Frank C. Whitmore, Jr. 

INTRODUCTION 

In 1879, the U.S. Geological Survey was established 

by the Congress for the purpose of mapping our geologically unknown West so that its resources and its 

environment could be known and used well. The 

United States was a developing nation whose leaders, 

both political and scientific, foresaw the need for accurate, documented knowledge of agricultural land and 

mineral resources as well as of the topography of country that had to be traversed by road and rail. We are 

proud of the foresight of our predecessors, for they were 

interested not only in developing the land wisely but 

also in providing an understanding of the environment 

that would enable people to live in harmony with their 

surroundings. In the arid West a century ago, the U.S. 

Geological Survey laid the groundwork for understanding what would now be called a fragile environment. 

The questions asked then were direct and pragmatic. 

How much land would it take to support a family? 

What climatic fluctuations could be anticipated? 

What water resources were available in a land of marginal rainfall? What minerals might be commercially 

developed? 

But it is to the credit of our founders that the exploration that they set in motion was not devoted exclusively to immediate problems. The search for valuable 

minerals was, of course, a matter of prime interest, but 

the focus of the early studies was upon thorough interpretation of the geology of the region-a basic approach that was to prove fruitful through the years. 

The first leaders of the U.S. Geological Survey inherited a tradition of government scientific exploration 

that embraced all natural science, in foreign lands as 

well as in the territory of the United States. The first 

such American enterprise, the Wilkes Expedition of 

1838 to 1842, exemplified this ideal in its collection of 

scientific data and specimens from many different 

places. But the goal of the new U.S. Geological Survey 

in 1879 was limited to exploration of the western territories of the United States. This limitation is understandable, for the West, despite previous exploration, 

was still poorly known, and pressure for settlement and 

development was great. It must have seemed at that 

time that the resources of the United States were infinite-that there were more than enough for all. But it 

was the beginning of a century that was to see a revolution in human life, both population and the use of 

natural resourcesgrowing at rates that dwarfed anything in the previous history of the world. And so, at 

the end of the U.S. Geological Survey's first century, we 

find ourselves in a different world-on a small planet 

whose growing demand for resources and increasing 

environmental problems must be the concern of all. 

The nations of the world are interdependent; no longer 

can any nation be self-sufficient or isolated. 

In recent years, this interdependence has been 

exemplified by the U.S. Geological Survey in its development of cooperative relationships with scientists and 

scientific groups in other countries on a governmentto-government basis. In fact, we now have working 

agreements with more than 100 countries. Therefore, 

in celebrating our Centennial with the firm purpose of 

looking at the future, we invited our colleagues from 
U.S. Geological Survey party en route from Garden Park to Cripple Creek, Colo., 1n 1894. U.S. Geological Survey 

photograph by Whitman Cross. 

2 
other countries to join us in examining the challenges 

that face us all as we approach the 21st century. 

All told, 468 participants from 41 countries and 13 

international organizations attended the International 

Centennial Symposium, held at the National Center in 

Reston, Virginia, from October 14 to 19, 1979. They 

represented more than 3,000 million people living on 

96 million square kilometers of the Earth's surface on 

6 continents. We are grateful to our friends for joining 

us, for their presence was evidence of strong international interest in solving mutual problems; their contribution of ideas is a material step toward achieving 

such solutions. We thank the participants for contributing papers to this symposium, and we are especially 

pleased that the meeting stimulated enthusiastic, informal discussion before, during, and long after the 

formal sessions. 

During the week of the International Centennial 

Symposium, an impressive community of thought 

gradually emerged as earth scientists and government 

planners expressed substantial concerns for the future 

of natural resources in the world community. The 

widely diverse backgrounds of the participants make 

that sense of common cause a vital one. It is the purpose of this publication to summarize the major ideas 

and conclusions that resulted from the October 1979 

meeting. 

The Proceedings of the Symposium (Professional 

Paper 119 3) will present, in detail, the data on which 

usable projections into the resources future must be 

based. By offering here a distillate of the thoughts 

expressed, I have treated these data as the collective 

product of the deliberations of this distinguished 

group. Instead of summarizing the remarks of each 

contributor, I have presented a synthesis of concurring 

and differing opinions expressed in the course of the 

week's discussions. No direct quotations are given, although some statements are paraphrased. As General 

Chairman of the Symposium, my aim is to highlight 

what seem to be the general conclusions suggested by 

the presentations and discussions, to which all those 

present contributed. 

I am grateful to Philip W. Guild, Charles D. Masters, Vincent E. McKelvey, Donald R. Nichols, and 

Morris M. Thompson for thoughtful review of the 

manuscript and to Mary Ellen Williams for help in its 

preparation. 

3 

PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE 

INTERNATIONAL CENTENNIAL SYMPOSIUM 

The Centennial of the U.S. Geological Survey 

comes at a critical juncture in our history. Our socioeconomic affairs, our political interactions, and our 

encounters with physical phenomena are shared as 

never before. World population has grown from 2,500 

million in 1950 to 4,200 million today, an increase of 

70 percent. Material demands in the same period have 

grown even faster. World trade has increased by 570 

percent; world energy use has increased more than 

fivefold on a tonnage basis; the value of manufactures, 

mostly of mineral origin, has increased 10 times. In the 

30 years after the end of World War II, man consumed 

more minerals than he had in all previous history. This 

escalation emphasizes the need for painstaking analysis of present trends in order to understand and attempt to solve the problems of the future. 

No man is an island, nor, in the sense of isolation 

from the rest of the world, is any country. The energy 

crisis of recent years has brought this fact home to us 

brutally, but energy is only one of the resource problems that we must face. In mineral resources as well, 

diverse natural occurrences may develop the same kind 

of world problems that energy has already demonstrated, but the potential complications are much 

greater because of the number of commodities 

involved. 

The role of each nation as producer and consumer 

differs from that of every other nation, and, in this 

regard, the contrast between developed and developing 

countries is great. This symposium was, therefore, organized so that countries at widely varying levels of 

development could describe their resource problems 

and the approaches that they are taking to solve them. 

As will be seen, these problems are by no means all 

scientific; economic nationalism, internal political priorities, and financing-both internal and externalwere discussed and received much attention. 

For the purposes of this Symposium, "resources" 

were broadly defined to include not only minerals, energy, land, and water but also the quality of our total 

environment as it is influenced by natural hazards, 

such as earthquakes and volcanoes, and by man 

himself. 

Besides these resources, implicit in every consideration was the most important resource of all-people. 

Geologists and other scientists, engineers of all kinds, 

economists, government officials, financiers and businessmen, technicians, agriculturists, and the labor 

force at large will, as they do now, play a notable part 

in the discovery, development, distribution, and use of 
Part of New York City (population 7,071,030). 

4 
all resources; the timely supply of such personnel and 

their most effective use must be assured. 

In planning the Symposium, we realized that knowledge of resources is of no use unless it is correctly recorded and published-made public for the public. For 

this reason, technological advances in surveying, mapping, cartography, and printing of geologic maps were 

included among the important subjects of discussion. 

NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES 

Evaluation of resources and reserves 

Planning for the future requires knowledge of the 

nature, amount, and distribution of nonrenewable resources-known mineral deposits, whether they are econ.omically recoverable or not, and unknown deposits 

whose existence is only supposed. National and international mineral and energy policy is only as good as 

the data on which it is based, and past experience has 

shown that estimates of resources, even when they are 

prepared by qualified experts, can vary widely. Estimates of reserves-that is, identified deposits economically minable now-are based on geologic mapping and 

subsurface exploration, but, to estimate potential resources, one must extrapolate from known occurrences 

to inferred bodies of minerals that can be neither seen 

nor measured now. This process is further complicated 

by economic aspects; what can be mined economically 

now, and what might be minable in the future? Three 

major factors bear upon this question. First, improving 

technology can increase reserves without making new 

discoveries. Second, changes in price-cost ratios can 

redefine reserves in terms of what can be profitably 

exploited. Third, discovery of new, economically workable deposits may increase the reserve figure, or the 

new deposits may replace previously worked bodies 

and leave the reserve estimate unchanged. 

In the past, estimating resources has been difficult; 

in the future, it will be more so. Known higher grade 

and large deposits are being exhausted. In spite of 

rising costs, it is becoming necessary to utilize lower 

grade deposits or those situated in remote or difficult 

environments that in the past have not been feasible to 

work. Such iemote areas are so poorly known that, 

without much field study, future estimates of resources 

and reserves would probably be less accurate than 

present estimates. Overcoming this difficulty will require evaluation of the mineral resources of such large, 

difficult areas as the Amazon Basin, where work is 

already underway by the Brazilian Government. Much 

5 

effort of this type will need to be expended in the 

developing countries and will require financial and (or) 

technical support beyond the ability of these countries 

to supply. International agencies and programs such as 

the International Geologic Correlation Program can 

be instrumental in improving the basic data on which 

our resource estimates must rest. 

Beyond the physical assessment of resources and 

their accessibility lie the political factors that affect 

their availability. It has already been demonstrated 

that limiting production or export as a national policy 

can create shortages of either worldwide or local nature, even when physical evaluation has shown that 

adequate reserves exist. It is likely that political and 

economic factors will become increasingly significant 

in the future. 

In planning for the 21st century, human resources as 

well as mineral resources must be considered. In the 

developed countries, the supply of technical personnel 

has kept pace with demand. In some developing countries, however, a major effort must be made in the next 

two decades to overcome this lack of manpower and to 

persuade those who are trained to remain in their home 

countries. 

Another aspect of human resources is the size of the 

labor force. In some developing countries, or at least in 

parts of them, labor-intensive methods of mining and 

mineral processing may be preferable to mechanical 

methods, especially in the exploitation of small mineral 

deposits. Thus, another factor is added to overall resource evaluation. 

Minerals 

Although there is little prospect of serious mineral 

shortages in this century from a global point of view, 

such a prospect does exist on an individual-country 

basis, especially if we consider advanced industrialized 

but resource-poor societies such as Japan, western Europe, and even the United States and perhaps the Soviet Union. In these countries, effective depletion of a 

number of traditional domestic mineral resources has 

already occurred. 

A shift away from mineral self-sufficiency is inevitable also in developing countries. Korea is an example. 

After being a mineral exporter in the 1950's, Korea 

changed over to intensive industrialization and high 

economic growth in the 1960's. Consequently, there 

was a dramatic shift in a few years from export of iron 

to import and from self-reliance in copper to import. 

The country is still self-reliant for lead, but the gap 

between supply and demand is narrowing. Concurrent 
Detail of an experimental RADAM map (here reproduced in black and white) printed during Projeto RADAMBRASIL. 

Planimetric features are surprinted in red, black, and blue line color on the original lithographic monotone base map. The 

airborne side-looki ng radar images were computer enhanced by U.S. Geological Survey staff, who also gave cartographic 

and special technical training to the Federal and commercial mapmakers who have developed the screenless process for 

regular use in Brazil. 

6 
"Argentina is a model for developing countries in respect to the function it can perform in the harnessing of energy" (D. A. 

Brunella). Workman in the Lorna Ia Lata oilfield. 

with industrial development, reliance on imported energy has risen sharply, from 9.4 percent in 1962 to 51.2 

percent in 1971 and 66.8 percent in 1978. Petroleum 

accounted for 61.2 percent of Korea's 1978 imports. 

Another expectable concomitant of Korean industrialization has been a change from labor-intensive to 

resource-consuming heavy industry. Unless significant 

progress is made in locating large concealed mineral 

deposits, Korea will remain an importer for some of its 

most critical needs. 

Discovery of concealed mineral deposits is, in fact, a 

major world hope for the future. On the basis of estimated crustal abundance, characteristics of known 

outcropping deposits, and metallogenic studies of favorable geologic terrain, there is reason to suggest that 

undiscovered minable deposits remain to be found and 

that further exploration is worthwhile. 

In South America, for example, the geologic setting 

of the countries of the Andean Cordillera (Chile, Peru, 

7 

Bolivia, Ecuador, Colombia, and the western part of 

Argentina) almost surely will support increases in the 

production of both metallic and nonmetallic minerals 

as soon as more intensive and extensive exploration is 

advanced or concluded. In Mexico, an estimated 1.5 

million square kilometers requires exploration at a 

semidetailed level; at least half of this area needs detailed geological and geophysical exploration. 

The eastern and southeastern parts of Venezuela, 

the northern and northwestern parts of Brazil, and 

Surinam, which lie on the Amazon and Orinoco cratons, have enormous potential for additional mineral 

discovery. Eastern Paraguay also has good mineral 

potential. These areas, mainly overlying a Precambrian shield, offer a challenge in contrast to that 

offered by the Cordillera and Mexico, areas in which 

we are mostly concerned with deeper depositsperhaps as deep as I ,000 m. Vast areas of Precambrian 

shield, on the other hand, are covered by tropical rain 
... ' . . ~:· : <• .-.::..·: 

Guajiro Indians harvesting sun-dried salt at Manaure, Colombia, the last unmechanized flats of the national salt industry. 

Photograph by Loren Mcintyre, copyright by National Geographic Society. 

forest, and so even near-surface deposits must be explored for by novel techniques. Precambrian shields, 

both within and outside the tropics, now contribute 

much of our nickel, iron, uranium, platinum, gold, and 

manganese and substantial quantities of many other 

metals. We can conclude that unexplored tropical 

rain-forest areas have similar mineral potential. The 

Brazilian exploration program in the Amazon area has 

demonstrated the special techniques necessary for 

mineral exploration in tropical jungles. Evaluation by 

side-looking airborne radar is followed up by grou rld 

examination of selected areas that are reached by helicopter. Logistical problems and the lack of outcrops 

owing to vegetation cover and deep weathering render 

such work slow and costly. In Arctic areas also, the 

environment poses difficulties of the same magnitud ~. 

Besides these spectacular and difficult regions, many 

more accessible areas, especially ones with complex 

geologic structure, remain to be geologically mapped 

8 

at a scale large enough to allow determination of their 

mineral potential. 

The pressure for additional mineral supplies will 

lead inevitably to exploration for deep mineral 

deposits- perhaps as deep as I ,000 m or more. Such 

exploration will require improved technology and 

methodology. 

Future exploration, in summary, must encompass 

(I) unexplored surface areas susceptible to investigation by conventional means; (2) areas of hidden nearsurface deposits where special techniques are required; 

and ( 3) deep deposits. A great deal of this exploration 

will be done in developing countries, but much exploration, especially for hidden or deep deposits, remains 

to be done in developed countries. An added factor, 

already evident, is the necessity of exploiting both 

small and low-grade deposits. For such exploitation, 

we are faced with increased costs per unit produced. 

On the one hand, large, low-grade deposits inevitably 
.. 

Peruvi a n Andes (upper right) and coastal plain (lower left) 320 km southeast of Lima. National Aeronautics and Space 

Administra tion La ndsat image 1645-14255, April 29, 1974, reproduced in black and white. 

9 
Amazon jungle clearing opened to allow technicians to make 

field observations in inaccessible regions. Photograph by 

Otto Bittencourt. 

require energy-intensive, highly mechanized exploitation. Small deposits, on the other hand, may be worked 

most efficiently in a labor-intensive way, a method that 

may best suit countries with large populations and 

relatively low levels of technology. 

Energy sources 

The revolution in petroleum supply that has taken 

place in the past decade greatly alters our perspective 

in trying to predict energy needs and resources for the 

21st century. In terms of cost, energy will be a far more 

significant factor in future planning than it has been in 

the past. Experience with petroleum also teaches us 

that availability and price of energy sources are not 

. I I stmp e matters of supply and demand; political considerations can be at least as strong as economic ones. 

Under the pressure generated by restricted supply 

and rising prices, new patterns of energy use will ddvelop. It is probable that the pattern of supply and 

pricing, often dictated by political considerations, will 

be seen in world trading in minerals as well as in fuels. 

Oil. At present, oil is the dominant world energy 

resource, but its importance, although great, is transitory. Total petroleum discoveries to 1980 are about 

140 X I 09 t; 60 X I 09 t has been produced, ancl 

80 X I 09 t remains as proved reserves. The importance 

of oil in the world economy stemmed from its ease of 

utilization and from exceptionally low production costs 

resulting from equally exceptional geological and political conditions. These conditions no longer obtain, 

but it is inevitable that, even under the less advanl 

tageous te rms, the world must continue for some time 

to be heavily dependent upon oil. Because of the 

10 

difficulties and the time needed to shift to other, more 

diversified energy sources, it is of the utmost importance to assess how long the oil era can or will last. 

If future needs are to be estimated, some assumptions must be made: What will the world population 

be? What will the per capita use of energy be? What 

will the energy be used for? One estimate presented at 

the Symposium uses the following assumptions: (I) 

World population stabilized at less than 12 billion people, possibly between 7 and 9 billion; (2) energy needs 

also stabilized or increasing very slowly; and (3) liquid 

fuels reserved for transportation, petrochemicals, and 

development of less developed countries. On this basis, 

world oil use would need to be at least 3 to 5 billion tons 

per year, much less than present consumption. According to some studies, conventional oil would be available 

in quantities sufficient to meet a demand for 5 billion 

tons per year until the year 20 I 0; the supply would 

drop to 3 billion tons per year by the year 2030. However, the effect of rising prices upon the profitability of 

"difficult" oil (for example, Venezuelan heavy oil) and 

upon production from small fields may increase available supplies. 

Since the 1973- 1974 crisis, the United States and 

Canada have dramatically increased their search for 

oil and gas; search has also been intensified by the 

United Kingdom, Norway, and Mexico. In the opinion 

of some Symposium participants, conventional oil exploration, spurred by the incentive of rising prices, can 

maintain supplies long enough for us to make the shift 

to unconventional sources of oil, provided that the 

United States synfuel program and the Canadian tar 

sands program pave the way and also that world consumption and (or) production of oil increases much 

more slowly than previous forecasts have indicated. 

Such a shift can, in turn, allow time for broadening our 

energy-mineral base. 

Another more optimistic opinion holds that a large 

percentage of the world's giant petroleum fields have 

not yet been found . If further exploration shows this 

assumption to be true, more time will, of course, be 

available for making the transition to other sources of 

energy. 

Natural gas. Large-scale use of natural gas began 

much later than that of oil and is still restricted to 

fewer countries, but the regional distribution of natural gas is wider than that of oil. One estimate of total 

recoverable natural gas resources is about 227 trillion 

cubic meters, including 64 trillion cubic meters as reserves and 162 trillion cubic meters as undiscovered 

resources. The 1978 net world production of about 

1.435 trillion cubic meters gives a static lifetime of 
Oil rig at Prudhoe Bay on the North Slope of Alaska. Photograph courtesy of Conoco, Inc. 

II 
Trading Bay monopod platform on site in Cook Inlet, Iaska . Photograph courtesy of Marathon Oil Company. 

about 50 years for the reserves and about 160 years for 

the total recoverable resources. Static lifetime, of 

course, is not a very reliable indicator of the real life of 

gas or other mineral resources; increased rates of consumption (the rule of the past) may reduce the life of 

presently prospective resources, and technologic advance that brings within economic reach presently unusable sources (also the rule of the past) may extend 

the life of natural gas resources. 

Coal. With resources of I 0,000 billion (1 012 ) 

tons and reserves of 636 billion tons, coal seems tlhe 

most promising energy resource for the 21st century. 

In 1977, world coal production was 2,988 million tons. 

Over the last I 0 years, the average annual increase in 

coal production has been 1.2 percent. At this rate of 

increase, present production could continue for I 00 to 

130 years. Coal technology, such as gasification and 

liquefaction, will assume increasing importance. 

Nuclear energy. The total cumulative world demand for uranium to the middle of the 21st century 

may be as much as 20 million tons. If so, 17 or 18 

million tons beyond presently known resources would 

be required. It was argued at the Symposium that this 

picture is not as grim as it looks; the demand for uranium is still relatively new in comparison with that for 

many other minerals, and, therefore, major areas remain to be explored. 

About 85 percent of the world's reasonably assured 

and estimated additional resources of uranium are in 

12 

Australia, Canada, France and French-controlled 

areas, South Africa, and the United States. Thus, as 

petroleum becomes less important, the energy political 

situation could be very different in the 21st century. 

Geothermal energy. Investment in geothermal 

energy is small. At present, its use is limited to volcanic 

or tectonically active zones where hot water or steam 

occurs naturally. A process now being developed may 

increase the use of this type of energy; hot dry rock 

technology involves pumping water into fracture zones 

in rocks whose temperatures are greater than 150°C. 

Although it is unlikely to be a major world energy 

source, the unexploited potential of geothermal energy 

may prove to be important on a local or even on a 

regional basis. 

Energy in the future 

It was generally agreed that price is one of the most 

crucial factors in determining what energy sources are 

sought, produced, and used. In the field of petroleum, 

high prices can be both a deterrent to use and an 

incentive to exploration. India, for instance, cannot 

afford to pay high prices for oil and therefore will 

accelerate exploration. The same is true of Egypt, 

which is already producing oil. Economic balance must 

be weighed against energy balance in determining the 

feasibility of producing energy from unconventional 
Vehicles carrying vibrators engaged in seismic subsurface survey in Belize, Honduras. Photograph by 

Michael E. Long, copyright by National Geographic Society. 

13 
Drill rig in the Niger delta. Photograph by Bruno Barbey, copyright by National Geographic Society. 

sources. For example, in calculating the feasibility of 

producing oil that requires more extensive refining, the 

added energy cost of production is likely to be decisive. 

Resource distribution 

A lesson learned from the oil crisis and readily extrapolated to other mineral commodities is that mineral 

resources are unevenly distributed. In the past, in peacetime, such inequalities have been ironed out by the 

play of the international marketplace. It is now becoming apparent that the national policies of producing 

countries can cause local mineral shortages. The problem thus becomes political rather than economic or 

scientific. The major mineral prospects for the future 

are most probably located in undeveloped parts of the 

world, and such areas are increasingly less open to 

exploitation by outsiders. We are at present in a transi14 

tiona! period with regard to development of mineral 

deposits in hitherto unworked areas. Developing nations regard their mineral resources as a national heritage to be managed for their own good; the resultant 

policies, however, may lead to hesitancy on the part of 

potential foreign investors. As awareness of world mineral interdependence increases and as the influence of 

international organizations, including groups of countries united by common economic problems, grows, 

many of these problems may be resolved. 

The rapid economic growth of many Third World 

nations is already leading to the discovery and development of previously unexploited mineral areas. Since 

detailed exploration of remote and difficult areas is in 

its early stages, it is probable that the distribution 

pattern of known world mineral resources will change 

in the coming decades, perhaps with a significant effect 

on world economics. 
Laying a n oil pipeline in Colombia. Photograph by Loren Mcintyre, copyright by National Geographic Society. 

15 
Colony oil shale retort near Parachute, Colo., operated by the Exxon Corporation and The Oil Shale Company. Photograph 

courtesy of Electric Power Research Institute. 

16 
Surface mining of coal at Black Mesa mine in Arizona under the Navajo Project (Power Participation Agreement). 

Photograph courtesy of U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. 

17 
Coal-l aden barges on the Monongahela River in southern Pennsylvania, bound for a generating station, shown in the 

background emitting steam. Photograph courtesy of Conoco, Inc. 

18 
The Geysers geothermal field in northern California, the first geothermal well completed on Federal lands. U.S. Geological 

Survey photograph. 

WATER AND PEOPLE 

Discussion of water at the Symposium concentrated 

on managing the distribution of available supplies and 

on the extremes of availability (floods and drought). 

Water has always been regarded differently from 

any other mineral commodity; in one way or another, 

it is regarded as public property rather than as a freemarket commodity. The economic law of supply and 

demand is not directly applicable to water, yet it is 

obvious that the supply and demand relationship has 

an effect on how it is managed. When it becomes necessary to make decisions about how available water is 

to be allocated, this responsibility is generally undertaken by the state as trustee for its people. The mechanism for such management varies according to the 

structure of the state, but it appears that developing 

nations as well as developed countries are well along 

the path toward state regulation of water supplies, 

19 

both for drinking and for irrigation. In some countries, 

it appears that state regulation will supersede the traditional legal provision that water rights are attached 

to the land. In other countries, water rights are being 

separated from land ownership and can be sold 

separately. 

The management of ground water is, in many areas, 

more difficult than that of surface water because of 

incomplete knowledge of ground-water occurrence and 

of the amount of resources. Its use can be regulated by 

requiring permits for well drilling, limiting the capacity of pumps, limiting the hours of use, or setting a 

minimum allowable distance between wells. As population density increases, such action by the state becomes necessary. 

Especially in highly developed countries, the price of 

water can vary enormously, depending on its use. Studies made in the United States in 1955 showed that the 
Yangtze River and Tunging Hu Lake in China. Gemini IV 

photograph 65-HC-792 (here reproduced in black and 

white). Photograph courtesy of National Aeronautics and 

Space Administration. 

cost of water for domestic use was about $98 I acre-ft. 

For industrial use, it was about $8 or $8.50iacre-ft 

and, for irrigation, about $3 I acre-ft; other studies suggested that, for rain-fed cropland, it was about $1 I 

acre-ft and, for silviculture, about $0.24lacre-ft. The 

values added on to the cost of water for rain-fed crbpland are for treatment and transportation of water, but 

they involve demand also; as an example, the overriding need of the city of Los Angeles for water and the 

willingness of its citizens to pay higher prices for water 

for domestic and industrial use have had the e~ect 

of diverting water from large rural areas of California where it can no longer be used for agricultural 

purposes. 

To ensure optimum use of water, some areas now 

resort to regional planning (by river basin or groups of 

river basins). France, for instance, is divided into eikht 

basin regions. For each region, there are two organizations: a financial agency and a technical agency. Municipal representatives and private citizens participate 

directly in both. Taxes on consumptive and hydroelectric use are applied to construction of treatment 

works, low-interest loans to municipalities and priJ ate 

industry, and nonreimbursable subsidies. Pollut1

ion 

20 

taxes induce industrial users to treat the water before 

returning it to the system by exempting from taxation 

any industry or municipality that does its own treatment. In 8 years, this regional plan has reduced pollution by 50 percent. 

In both developed and developing countries, the 

trend appears to be toward more careful government 

control of water use, with user participation in the 

planning process, and toward rethinking the pricing of 

water as a commodity. If this trend is projected into 

the 21st century, it seems possible that a single water 

law may govern seawater as well as coastal, continental, and atmospheric water. Use of all waters may 

be in the public domain or under government control. 

Techniques of water pricing may be improved. The 

principle of "the polluter pays" may become generalized. Above all, it seems that water policies for a 

region will have to stress long-term stability based on 

sustained supplies and productivity rather than on 

maximum short-term production. 

The problem of floods and drought is emphasized by 

climatologists' prediction that we can expect some decades of more extreme weather. Preparation for such 

contingencies will differ, of course, in each region or 

country concerned. Take as an example the southern 

Canadian prairies, which have low rainfall. Here small 

water projects have been most effective in combating 

drought (for example, increasing the depth of farm 

and community wells, digging farm ponds, and planting shelter belts of drought-resistant trees). Construction of large water projects has been less successful. 

Some thought has been given to diverting northwardflowing streams to southern Canada. This scheme is 

now being questioned, however, because it could upset 

ecosystems and perhaps change the salinity of the Arctic seas by reducing the amount of freshwater discharge, which, in turn, could trigger a major climatic 

change. 

Programs based on the idea of taming nature have 

usually failed, particularly in the case of floods. Floods, 

like droughts, are part of a natural cycle; they become 

disasters only when man has pressed the environment 

beyond the limits of its ability to support or tolerate 

him. In coping with the threat of floods, Canada and 

the United States, among others, are tending more and 

more toward damage reduction rather than flood reduction. Such programs involve delineating flood 

plains in populated areas and then taking steps to discourage building on them unless the structures are 

flood proofed. Zoning is sometimes used by local governments to attain this end, as is the refusal to provide 

disaster relief for such areas. Where there a re existing 
False-color Landsat image (reproduced in black and white) of the area of the Nile around Luxor, Egypt, about 200 km 

downstream from the Aswan Dam, where floods have been replaced by perennial irrigation. 

21 
Crops in the Libyan desert. The dots are circular fields of crops grown under center-pivot irrigation near the oases of Kufra. 

22 
Portion of the Los Angeles Owens River Aqueduct crossing the desert. Photograph courtesy of the City of Los Angeles 

Department of Power and Water. 

23 
Drought in northeastern Brazil. Photograph by 

Gahan , copyright by National Geographic Society. 

structures in flood-prone areas, protective diversionary 

structures are sometimes used. 

To manage the water supply and to cope with 

drought and floods, man's activities, in the long run, 

must be in balance with nature. 

PEOPLE AND THE ENVIRONMENT l 

Our environment is our most precious resource, b t, 

until recently, it has been taken for granted. The world 

is now very much aware of the damage that can be 

done to the environment, and great efforts are being 

made to prevent or correct such damage. If recent 

technical developments are not handled properly, they 

could increase geologic hazards and result in pollution 

of the atmosphere, reduction of forests, modification of 

rivers, lakes, and ground water, and other primary 

effects. Beyond these effects and resulting from them 

in ways that we do not fully understand are large secondary or derivative effects such as the modification of 

climate. The increasing pace of technology, coupled 

with population growth, accelerates such trends and 

renders ever more urgent the need to understand and 

control them. 

Much as humans are to blame for the deterioration 

of their surroundings, certain natural phenomena also 

pollute and alter the environment and often threaten 

life itself. Conspicuous among these are volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Landslides are a damaging and 

often dangerous phenomenon. Although ground subsidence and expansive soils are not usually dangerous 

to human life, they can cause great damage to structures. Floods and droughts are widespread and serious 

threats. The effort to understand and to predict the 

occurrence of geologic hazards has led to an international cooperation in research that bodes well for the 

future. 

Earthquakes 

The worldwide nature of the earthquake threat has 

stimulated an improved exchange of information on 

methods of dealing with earthquakes. The highly successful international research programs now underway 

are excellent examples of international scientific cooperation. In the last 15 years, a highly effective interdisciplinary approach involving engineers, seismologists, 

geologists, sociologists, land-use planners, politicians, 

and financiers has developed. Although we have a long 

way to go, our confidence in our predictive capability 

has increased, as has the attention paid by governments to the recommendations of scientists. Such 

recommendations are not limited to earthquake prediction; more important at the present time, because 

they are better understood, are preventive measures 

such as earthquake-resistant design and land-use planning. It was pointed out during the Symposium that, 

especially in less well developed countries, a simple 

upgrading of craftsmanship in masonry work would 

, perhaps do more to save lives than all our sophisticated 

and advanced technology combined. 

24 

In the U.S.S.R., seismic zoning, developed since 

19 30, is the basis for all state planning, design, and 

building operations. Detailed geologic investigations 

are required for sensitive projects such as hydrotechnical projects and nuclear power plants. Similar 

approaches are being developed in other countries. 

All prediction and amelioration of earthquake activity must be based on fundamental scientific studies, 

and international cooperation is paying off in this re-
gard. As one American worker said, work in Turkey 

may teach us more about the San Andreas fault than 

our studies in California will. 

An important impetus to the improvement of earthquake prediction is its importance to less well developed countries, where earthquake-proof construction 

and land-use planning procedures are too expensive to 

implement. In the Peoples' Republic of China, tens of 

thousands of lives have been saved by successful earthquake predictions. In the U.S.S.R., several successful 

predictions have been made. Earthquake studies in 

California are being bolstered by studies of seismicity 

in other parts of the United States. Japan, like the 

Peoples' Republic of China, has had excellent success 

in recognizing earthquake swarms. 

In Japan, the Earthquake Research Institute of the 

University of Tokyo is working on quantified expression of earthquake prediction, giving a success rate 

that can then be used in calculating the cost of prediction. The cost of prediction as projected for the next 10 

years is still only a fraction of a percent of the property 

damage caused, by the 1923 earthquake. The percentage becomes even smaller when we consider how explosively the potential for disaster has been increased 

by the growth of urban populations. 

As examples of current research programs, earthquake studies in the Andean region of South America 

and in Turkey were selected for detailed consideration 

by the Symposium. 

A pilot study of Andean seismicity was proposed in 

1973 and approved by the Organization of American 

States. Funds were provided to CERESIS, the Regional Center for Seismology for South America, to 

carry out the project in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, 

and Peru and to produce preliminary seismotectonic 

and seismic risk maps. As the project nears completion, more than 30,000 seismic events occurring 

between 14 71 and 1977 have been identified, and preliminary maps have been produced. Concurrently, scientists from Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, and Bolivia 

have collaborated with colleagues from France, the 

United States, and Canada on fundamental research 

into the nature of tectonic forces, such as analysis of 

the subduction of the Nazca Plate. 

In Peru, the National Civil Defense Committee has 

appointed a scientific advisory group to evaluate hazard potential. This project includes consideration of 

landslides, mudflows, subsidence, rockfalls, tsunamis, 

earthquakes, and volcanoes. Effects of rainfall, electrical storms, freezes, ocean currents, droughts, and 

pollution and other manmade hazards are also 

considered. 

25 

Turkey has begun earthquake-prediction studies 

within the framework of a research project sponsored 

by the U.S. Geological Survey. One of the most seismically active continental regions in the world, Turkey 

has a 2,000-year historical record of earthquakes. The 

Turkish program consists of ( 1) detailed geologic mapping of fault zones, (2) monitoring of microearthquakes, ( 3) measurement of ground deformation, 

and ( 4) assembly of earthquake statistics for risk analysis and for the location of seismic gaps along major 

fault lines. The most complicated and seismically important part of eastern Turkey has been mapped. 

Markers have been placed so that the network can be 

resurveyed to determine changes in the strain field 

near a plate boundary. 

In the search for an understanding of tectonic processes, space technology offers the best way to measure 

global-scale deformation on such major faults as the 

North Anatolian fault in Turkey, the San Andreas 

fault in the United States, and the Alpine fault in New 

Zealand. The European Space Agency is formulating 

a plan to make a study of the North Anatolian fault, 

and the Andean countries are discussing with the N ationa! Aeronautics and Space Administration the possibility of participating in NASA's Geodynamics 

Program. 

In earthquake studies, continuity is necessary, and 

international cooperation is important. 

Volcanoes 

As it has in earthquake studies, international cooperation in the study of volcanoes has greatly increased 

in recent years, again with the aim of being able to 

predict events. In discussions at the Symposium, two 

aspects of volcano studies emerged-adequacy of 

baseline geophysical data and the relationship between 

scientists and the public. 

In terms of human safety, the critical decision in a 

period of volcanic activity is when to order evacuation 

of an area. The chances of correctly predicting an 

eruption are greatly increased by baseline observations, such as those provided by a network of 

seismometers documenting upward movement of 

earthquake foci or by deformation studies designed to 

detect changes in the shape of a volcano. 

Two recent eruptions in the eastern Caribbean exemplify the need for baseline data. In 1976, eruptions 

of steam and ash from La Soufriere volcano on the 

island of Guadeloupe, accompanied by hundreds of 

local earthquakes, seemed to presage a dangerous 

eruption. Tens of thousands of people were evacuated 

from the area for a period of several months. The 
Poverty accents geologic disasters. When this village was struck by the 1976 Guatemalan earthquake, I 00 percent of its 

adobe structures were destroyed. Photograph by Samuel Bonis. 

eruption never occurred. During the long period of 

evacuation, scientists and authorities were uncertain 

about the significance of the volcanic events. In great 

part, this uncertainty was due to a lack of baseline 

data; knowledge of long-term changes in the volcano 

could have led to an estimate of the time of an eruption 

and of what type of eruption might take place. 

In 1979, another Caribbean eruption occurred on 

the island of St. Vincent. This volcano, also named 

Soufriere, had, by contrast, been subjected to baseline 

geophysical studies. The temperature of the water in 

the crater lake had been monitored at regular intervals 

and found to be increasing. Tiltmeters installed 2 years 

before the eruption indicated that the volcano was 

swelling. Seismometers were in operation on and near 

the volcano. When the eruption came, it was so sudden 

that evacuation was immediate. But the baseline data 

were valuable in interpreting the course of volcanic 

activity after the first eruption and thus helped to determine when it would be safe to return the evacuees to 

their homes. 

26 

Coping with volcanic activity requires the combined 

efforts of scientists, engineers, and political authorities. 

In addition, the news media play a very important part 

in conveying information to the populace. The two 

Caribbean eruptions furnished contrasting examples 

of press relations. On Guadeloupe, the press corps was 

allowed almost unlimited access to the volcanologists, 

some of whom were in disagreement concerning interpretation of the observed phenomena. Thus, at times, 

the disagreements, rather than what was happening at 

the volcano, became the news. In St. Vincent, on the 

other hand, the press was briefed by government representatives, who used information supplied by the 

scientists. 

Informing the public concerning volcanic activity on 

a small island is, of course, far simpler than it would be 

in a large area such as the Western United States. The 

eruption of Mount St. Helens, which began several 

months after the International Centennial Symposium, exemplifies the need for dissemination of timely 

and accurate information and shows how it can be 
done on a large scale. The frequent release of up-todate information was handled by a staff of information 

officers working with the scientists. The scientists were 

avai lable for press briefings as their work permitted; 

the information officers served as a continuing source 

of information. 

Releasing information to the public is difficult because we do not know how best to help the public 

understand natural hazards, particularly when the inadequate state of our knowledge leads to uncertainty 

about the timing and course of hazardous events. 

Hence, it is encouraging that sociologists are making 

studies of people's response to news. These studies may 

lead to more effective policies concerning the timing 

and the manner in which possible impending hazards 

are announced and the best ways to impart the incomplete state of our scientific knowledge. 

Understanding and guiding man's influence 

on the environment 

Since World War II, there has been a rapidly growing awareness, especially in developed countries, of 

man's degradational effect upon his environmentdeforestation and consequent depletion of the soil; air 

and water pollution; loss of topsoil through erosion; 

silting of rivers and harbors; alteration of the microclimate in large cities; and many other results of the 

world's growing population pressure. Although such 

phenomena are less spectacular than earthquakes or 

volcanoes, their effects will be far more widespread. 

We face the problem of trying to stop or reverse these 

trends where possible, but we must also learn how to 

avoid them in parts of the world that have not yet been 

affected and how to plan for the intelligent use of land. 

In a number of developed and developing countries, 

A totally collapsed house in Lice, Turkey, after the earthquake of September 6, 1975. 

27 
Vertical eruption cloud rising about 5 km above the summit 

of Soufriere volcano on the island of St. Vincent in the Caribbean on April 22, 1979. Photograph by Richard S. Fiske. 

this concern has led to extensive programs of land 

analysis using multidisciplinary studies by teams of 

geologists, soil scientists, foresters, botanists, ecologists, meteorologists, engineers, and representatives of 

other specialties. Modern remote-sensing technology 

has made it possible to carry out such surveys on a 

sca le and at a speed that would have been impossible 

a generation ago. The use of computers, for example, 

makes it possible to map at generalized levels but to 

retrieve detailed basic data when they are needed. 

Simply put, land analysis is based on landsca~e 

mapping- the delineation of units that have similar 

geneses and that can be described similarly in terms of 

topography, soil, vegetation, and climate. When these 

processes have been carried out, the land-use potential 

of a given landscape unit can be defined without detailed surveying of the entire unit. Such an approach 

offers great possibilities for both government and pri28 

vate enterprise to determine the optimum use of the 

land. 

In Australia, such land analysis, called the landsystem approach, has been underway for more than 30 

years. The Australian system is also coming into use in 

Africa, Asia, and parts of South America. The Geological Survey of India's environmental studies began in 

1970 with land-use mapping through the use of aerial 

photographs, Earth satellite imagery, and topographic 

maps. The first maps resulting from a regional multidisciplinary study, "Operation Anantapur," were released for the first time at the International Centennial 

Symposium. Along with basic-data maps (geologic, 

geomorphologic, hydrogeologic, soils, geotechnical, 

and mineral-resources maps), regional land-use maps 

serve as a guide for environmental management. 

Urban studies are also being undertaken in India, and 

dialogs with state governments are leading to gradual 

acceptance of suggestions and their incorporation in 

regional plans. 

In the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey 

established its Land Information and Analysis Office 

in 197 5 to evaluate alternative uses of the land and to 

provide a sound basis for decisions and land use. This 

activity was the result of a growing concern in the U.S. 

Geological Survey with analysis of the land in terms of 

its potential use, expressed in language understandable 

by the nongeologist. The first such work (then called 

"terrain analysis") was done for military purposes during World War II. After the war, the same approach 

was used to supply data for civil engineering operations, the emphasis being on urban areas. The U.S. 

Geological Survey's new Office of Earth Sciences Applications has greatly expanded the scope of the work 

by making extensive use of remote sensing and determining the environmental impact of exploration, development, and production of mineral and energy resources from the public lands. 

When the future of land analysis is considered, two 

problems emerge. The first is the extension of such 

studies to developing countries. Understandably, the 

major concern to date with human impact on the environment has been in developed countries, where that 

impact has been greatest. But, if we are to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past, it is imperative that 

land analyses be made in areas where development has 

not begun or is in its early stages. Although land analysis is valuable- indeed, indispensable- it is expensive 

and requires highly trained personnel. Financing and 

carrying out such work will require international cooperation and, in some cases, financial aid from international agencies. 
.:: 

29 
Devastation at the Spud Mountain equipment site on 

Geological Survey photograph. 

/ 

30 

\ 

/ 

1980, following the eruption of Mount St. Helens. U.S. 
A rock topple and fall halted traffic on this highway in the central Santa Monica Mountains of southern California. 

Photograph courtesy of the Department of the County Engineer, Los Angeles County, California. 

31 
Cooper Creek in Queensland, Australia. Landsat image 1563-23530 shows the creek in flood during the wet season (February 

6, 1974 ). The original false-color image (here reproduced in black and white) was used to classify terrain types on the basis 

of vegetation and topography by C. J. Robinove (U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper II 02, 1979 ). 

The second problem related to land surveys is translating data into action. The products of these new 

surveys- mostly maps- are being designed for use by 

nontechnical people, the goal being intelligent land 

use. Therefore, the most important users of these maps 

will be government officials who make decisions on 

issues such as zoning that determine how the land is to 

be used. In Victoria, Australia, for instance, landanalysis data have been applied directly to state landuse planning and to surveying of grazing and livestock 

lands to determine safe carrying capacities and management programs. To some extent, the very existence 

of land-analysis data may lead to their application; but 

32 

it was the consensus of this Symposium that government decisionmakers generally are not sufficiently 

aware of the land-analysis information available to 

them or of the importance of developing such information if it is not available. How to bring such information to the attention of those at the decisionmaking 

level is one of the major problems facing earth 

scientists. 

NEW MAPS FOR THE WORLD 

From ground surveys to satellites, new techniques 

have revolutionized mapping in recent years. Surveying instruments in the field can now transmit data to a 
U.S. Geological Survey topographer surveying the Idaho-Montana boundary line in the late 19th century. U.S. Geological 

Survey photograph. 

33 
Connect ion box 

with switch and 

signal lamp 

.\ 

oo 

2- way radio 

Cassette tape recorder 

Surveyor in Sweden using remote-recording system. Illustration courtesy of Carl Tenryd. 

34 
calculator in the office so that, before the surveyor 

leaves his station, the completeness and quality of his 

survey data can be controlled. This development and 

others reduce the potential for human error in surveying techniques. 

In the field of photogrammetry, we have entered 

the era of analytical plotters; automation of the photogrammetric process includes storage of data, editing, 

and film plotting, all through computer techniques. 

Human assistance is required mainly for correcting the 

final draft map. In the last few years, the accuracy of 

photogrammetric techniques has increased, and the 

quality of modern cameras has improved, so that it is 

now possible to compile more accurate large-scale 

maps from much smaller scale photographic images. 

Digitized information offers a powerful supplement or 

alternative to film photography. 

The most striking innovation in mapping is the satellite data system, which had its beginnings only in 

1957, when Sputnik was launched by the U.S.S.R. 

Now the satellite programs of the United States and of 

the European Space Agency furnish worldwide data 

on weather, topography, geology, vegetation, water, 

soil, population, and many other subjects. Satellite 

imagery from photogrammetric cameras offers a 

promising means of rapid mapping if resolution and 

geometric accuracy requirements can be met. 

Yet, despite a quantum jump in mapping efficiency, 

the world is nowhere near satisfactorily mapped. At 

medium scales (1 :50,000 to 1:1 00,000), only 30 percent of the world has been mapped. At smaller scales 

( 1:250,000 to 1 :500,000), map coverage is 65 percent. 

Not all of this coverage is accurate or complete enough 

for modern use. As would be expected, the most complete coverage is in the developed countries, the developing countries being very poorly covered. 

The great expense of modern cartographic equipment is beyond the means of many developing countries; in some of these countries, national map series 

are still being produced by plane-table survey, which 

has the advantage of offering employment to many 

people. Automated mapping uses fewer people but requires a high degree of technical training. 

Whichever type of mapping a country chooses, it is 

imperative for its development that a continuing mapping program be supported. In some countries, mapping is carried out only in support of specific projects, 

such as construction schemes. Thus, the general development of the country may be delayed, for mapping is 

not begun until the specific project has been decided 

upon, and then it supports only that project. Good 

35 

planning and wise development require good information about the land and its resources. 

THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN 

A CHANGING WORLD 

Looking to the 21st century, many developing countries have seemingly bright futures, for they contain 

within their borders a significant percentage of the 

Earth's untapped mineral resources. But this prospect 

is of little comfort today, when many potentially rich 

nations are inhabited by people who exist at the poverty level. The natural resources of such countries can 

be developed only on a long-range, systematic basis, 

yet their immediate problems are so great and their financial resources so meagre that long-range planning 

must seem an almost insuperable task. 

In a poor country, natural hazards loom larger than 

they do in a rich one because the people live so near the 

survival level. Floods, droughts, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions take a greater toll of those who have 

little food even in normal times and who live in structures that can stand little of nature's stress. When 

catastrophes strike, the immediate resources of the nation are strained, even when foreign aid is supplied. 

Against this background of poverty, the state must 

decide how best to allocate its resources. In most developing countries, the greatest immediately available 

resource is people; this availability constitutes an argument in favor of labor-intensive activities, such as the 

operation of small mines, for the immediate future. As 

an essential part of a long-range resource-development 

program, a nation must assure itself a supply of competent technical people such as geologists, hydrologists, engineers, and foresters. Such specialists are in 

very short supply in developing countries, 'so training 

must have high priority in any country's program. In 

order to develop the nation's mineral and water resources, emphasis should be placed on training field 

scientists and on giving them incentives, such as adequate per diem payments, that will keep them in the 

field. Training in foreign countries and working in 

one's own country with visiting foreign scientists are 

essential parts of such a program. Geologic and topographic mapping can be carried on at low cost (for 

jeeps, field per diem, and simple field equipment) and 

can build an invaluable corps of trained and experienced earth scientists. It is incumbent upon the government to use such scientists as a valuable resource that 

will contribute, by giving their advice, to the development of their country. 
Watering came ls in Djibouti. Photograph by Marion Kaplan, copyright by National Geographic Society. 

36 
Laborers near Mirzapur in Bangladesh breaking bricks to make road metal. Photograph by Dick Durrance II, copyright by 

National Geographic Society. 

In addition to depending on help from developed 

nations to train adequate numbers of their own earth 

scientists, developing nations can do much in cooperation with each other. As an example, the Association 

of Geologists for International Development has proposed the formation of an International Geoscience 

Research Institute for the development of mineralexploration techniques in tropical rain-forest regions. 

To supplement the resources of the state, the United 

Nations revolving fund and World Bank funds are 

becoming more easily available and may soon herald a 

new era of more direct state participation in mineralexploration efforts. This trend will intensify as the necessity to explore for and mine remote and low-grade 

deposits increases; these operations will require a large 

capital outlay before there is any prospect of monetary 

return . 

For countries whose mineral resources are known, 

ready for development, and needed on the world 

market, the situation is far different than it was a 

37 

generation ago. Developing countries have become 

increasingly aware that their natural resources constitute a major part of their national heritage, to be husbanded and wisely used for the benefit of the nation. 

Many such countries are now in an awkward transitional state between foreign exploitation and selfsufficiency in developing their natural resources. 

Economic nationalism in developing countries has led 

to reluctance on the part of potential investors to engage in new operations. Doubt concerning the political 

stability of a country can increase this reluctance. Understanding on both sides is, of course, essential in this 

transitional period. In the immediate future, developing countries will need technical assistance as well as 

financial help. As an example, it is to the advantage of 

both the seller and the buyer to process raw materials 

in the most efficient manner; here, developed countries 

can make mineral export more attractive to developing 

countries by supplying them with the advanced technology necessary for such processing. To a growing 
extent, producing nations may require domestic processing of raw materials, which increases local employment and training of nationals and insures maximum 

utilization of domestically produced goods and services, in addition to increasing the value of their 

exports. 

Estimates of future resource availability are perforce based on present methods of exploration and 

analysis. These, too, will change, and new techniques 

already promise to reveal previously unknown resources at depth, both below the land and under the sea 

bottom. In the last few years, equipment that can explore with reflected sound waves to a depth of 3q to 

70 km has been developed. This equipment has 

identified new areas for petroleum exploration in ~reviously undetected sedimentary strata beneath c~ystalline rocks in both the Eastern and the W estfrn 

United States. Such technology promises to incr%1 se 

greatly our known mineral and fuel resources. A roposal is also being considered to equip a drilling s , ip, 

the Glomar Explorer, for sea-bottom exploration of 

the continental margin to well depths as great as 

11 ,000 ft below sea level. 

In both the short and the long term, governm~nt 

understanding of natural-resource problems and Cfmsistent policies based on such understanding are essential. The future supply adequacy of many min~ral commodities will be influenced less by physical s~arcity of resources than by human or political fact~rs. 

Potential investors are coming to realize that t~ey 

must contribute to the technical development of the 

countries in which they are investing. 

For future development, it is most important that 

governments commit themselves to long-term geologic 

mapping programs. Many areas of known mineral 

wealth are not yet adequately mapped; for instance~ in 

Indonesia, only about 25 percent of a land area of m}re 

than 1.9 million square kilometers has been mapfed 

geologically in some detail. I 

I 

As the importance of developing countries as suppliers of minerals to the world increases, it is in everyoq,< e's 

interest that their resources be known. Geologic mkpping, beginning with a countrywide small-scale maJ, is 

essential. A continuing geological survey operating as 

a permanent part of the government will help to lay the 

groundwork for mineral explorations. The personne~ of 

a national geological survey can make a tremendously 

important contribution to the development of an 

effective national minerals policy. 

38 

THE FUTURE 

Predictions 

The overriding resource problem as we approach the 

21st century is energy-supply, demand, and cost. Despite differences of opinion about remaining petroleum 

reserves, it seems likely that, by the year 2000, production of oil-and possibly of natural gas-will have 

passed its peak. Coal and other fossil fuels, together 

with nuclear fuels, will have to meet most of the increased demand for energy. Coal will be used in new 

ways to provide gaseous and liquid fuels. Hydrocarbons from oil shales and tar sands will become increasingly available, and alternative sources such as 

solar and geothermal energy will become increasingly 

important. 

After the year 2000, oil and gas are expected to 

decline further as energy sources, but they will remain 

important as sources for the petrochemical industry. 

Concurrently, oil shale and tar sands will be used on a 

large scale, but coal and nuclear fuels should be the 

major sources of energy. This assured supply of coal 

promises to buy the time needed to discover further 

supplies of nuclear fuel and to develop advanced nuclear technology. Alternative energy sources will increase in importance. 

The increasing cost of energy will affect all phases of 

life and, regardless of what new sources are developed, 

will dictate more efficient and more conservative use of 

power. In the field of resources, energy cost will have 

a marked effect on mineral processing, at a time when 

increasing dependence on small mineral deposits and 

low-grade ores will require higher energy input. This 

problem could be alleviated by beneficiating minerals 

nearer the source by means of presently unused energy 

sources such as hydroelectric and geothermal power. 

In projecting future demand for minerals, we are 

handicapped by rapidly changing technology; mere 

extrapolation of historical trends will not suffice. An 

example is the increased use of aluminum, magnesium, 

plastics, and fiberglass as substitutes for steel in automobiles. At present, according to the U.S. Bureau of 

Mines, world deficits are predicted by the year 2000 

for asbestos, bismuth, fluorine, germanium, graphite, 

indium, mercury, sheet mica, silver, sulfur, and zinc. 

Because minerals are distributed unequally over the 

world, political and economic factors could well cause 

local shortages of other minerals as well. Further exploration and the efforts of countries to develop selfsufficiency in critical mineral commodities will not 
remove this threat. It will remain for mineral economists and planners with mining and minerals experience to play a role in developing government 

marketing policies based on recognition of world mineral interdependence. 

Estimates of future resource availability are perforce based on present methods of exploration and 

analysis. These, too, will change, and new techniques 

already promise to reveal previously unknown resources at depth, both below the land and under the sea 

bottom. In the last few years, equipment that can explore with reflected sound waves to a depth of 30 to 

70 km has been developed. This equipment has identified new areas for petroleum exploration in previously 

undetected sedimentary strata beneath crystalline 

rocks in both the Eastern and the Western United 

States. Such technology promises to increase greatly 

our known mineral and fuel resources. A proposal is 

also being considered to equip a drilling ship, the Glomar Explorer, for sea-bottom exploration of the continental margin to well depths as great as 11,000 ft 

below sea level. 

The way ahead 

Participants in the International Centennial Symposium repeatedly expressed the conviction that 

national governments must give high priority to 

natural-resource policy. Their task will not be easy. 

Industrialized countries must establish conservation 

policies that will make the wisest possible use of nonrenewable resources. At the same time, they must continue to expand technical cooperation with developing 

countries on the basis of the modern nonexploitive view 

that a nation's resources are part of its natural heritage. Training is an important part of such a policy. It 

is also crucial that the results of resource studies be 

made widely available. 

Governments of developing countries are faced with 

a dilemma in formulating a natural-resource policyhow to balance the immediate needs of the people 

against optimum long-term development of the country's resources. Demanding as they are, pressing immediate needs must not prevent the development of a 

39 

long-term natural-resource policy based on a good 

knowledge of the nation's resources acquired by such 

fundamental studies as geologic mapping. 

In discussions at the Symposium, it was agreed that 

the contribution of earth scientists to the development 

of national policy is needed now more than ever before 

and that it is likely to become more important in the 

future. To deal with the earth-science problems that 

will face us in the 21st century, policymakers will need 

to depend more and more on the information furnished 

by earth scientists and on their analyses of the consequences of alternative actions. 

The current shortage of technical personnel in developing countries reveals another aspect of the interdependence of nations. Specialized advice can be obtained from developed nations and from international 

organizations, and developing nations can pool their 

resources to attack common problems. Even though a 

nation may not have all the scientists that it needs, a 

cadre of trained resource personnel can serve a valuable function by interpreting resource-policy alternatives in their role as advisers to government. 

The interdependence of nations for natural resources will, in the future, require greatly improved 

knowledge of mineral resources on a global scale. With 

the assistance of modern technology, a world data center could convert statistics into such readily usable 

tools as commodity maps plotted automatically from 

data files stored in digital form. Such an international 

resource would foster the development of world marketing policies that would reduce the risk of local 

shortages. 

In summary, the International Centennial Symposium emphasized the interdependence of nations, 

the importance of socioeconomic factors in formulating natural-resource policy, and the incompleteness 

of our knowledge of what world resources are, It further agreed that people are the greatest resource of all. 

From the perspective of world resource needs, including optimum use of our environment, trained scientists, 

economists, and planners are a source of wisdom upon 

which the world must draw. 
NATIONAL REPRESENTATIVES AND INVITED SPEAKERS, INTERNATIONAL 

CENTENNIAL SYl\tiPOSIUM 

[Invited speakers are marked with an asterisk(*)] 

Argentina: 

0. J. Ruiz-Huidobro 

Australia: 

C. S. Christian* 

H. J. Vojacek* 

Brazil: 

Otto Bittencourt N.* 

J. R. A. Ramos* 

Lauro Sodre-Neto 

Canada: 

A. R. Berger 

J. P. Bruce* 

J. M. Harrison 

D. J. McLaren* 

W. F. Roberts* 

J. M. Zarzycki* 

Chile: 

Carlos Ruiz* 

China: 

Ji-Qing Huang 

Yan-Hau Lu 

Shu-Ping Miao 

. Guang-Zhi Tu 

Ji-Yang Wang 

Da-He Xiong 

Wen-You Zhang 

Czechoslovakia: 

Jaroslav Vesely 

Vaclav Zika 

Egypt: 

M. F. El-Ramly 

G. A. Moustafa* 

Federal Republic of Germany: 

Fiji: 

F. N. Bender* 

M. Kursten* 

Bernhard Schmidt* 

R.N. Richmond* 

France: 

Pierre-Noel Giraud 

C. Guillemin* 

Pierre Laffitte 

Guy Pautot 

Liliane Sardais 

German Democratic Republic: 

Gerd Olszek 

Guatemala: 

Samuel Bonis* 

Guyana: 

Irma Lowe 

India: 

T. N. Basu 

V. S. Krishnaswamy 

M. V. N. Murthy* 

B. K. R~o 

T. Thimrhaiah 

' Indonesia: ! 

Soetaryd Sigit* 

Israel: 

Uri Kafri 

Japan: : 

Keichi ~asahara * 

v. Shimfzaki* 

Kenya: ! 

E.M. Mtai 

I 

Korea (Southj: 

Byung Kloo Hyun* 

I 

Liberia: ! 

W. A. F}eeman 

Nathaniel Richardson 

C. S. W otorson 

Libya: 

M. T. Busrewil 

0. S. H~mmuhda 

Madagascar: t 

Roger R mbeloson 

Mexico: I 

David Alvarez-Roblero 

G. P. Salas* 

M. A. S~sa Ordono 

J. A. Villasana L. * 

The Netherlands: 

B. P. Hageman* 

Nigeria: 

J. A. Og~nkoya 

Norway: i 

K. S. Heier 

Kjell Gl~mnes 

Pakistan: I 

Peru~· A. Birami' 

A. A. Gifsecke* 

The Philippin,s: 

Angel Alejandrino* 

Saudi Arabia: 

Ahmed Al-Arinan 

A. Y. Ba~dady 

Patrick Slkipwith 

Ghazi Sujltan 

A. z. Yarnani* 

I 40 

Sweden: 

C. 0. Ternryd* 

Switzerland: 

Ernst Spiess* 

Thailand: 

S. N. Kaewbaidhoon 

Turkey: 

Nezihi (:anitez* 

Union of Soviet Socialist Republics: 

S. Kh. Negmatullaev 

I. L. N ersesov* 

A. V. Sidorenko 

A. A. Trofimuk 

R. Volkov 

United Kingdom: 

L. J. Harris* 

I. G. Hughes 

United States of America: 

P. H. Abelson* 

J. R. Balsley* 

G. E. Becraft* 

J. M. Botbol* 

Philip Cohen* 

J. S. Cragwall* 

E. M. Davin* 

A. L. Dilonardo* 

F. J. Doyle* 

R. E. Ehrenberg* 

R. S. Fiske* 

Philip Handler* 

R. D. Kidwell* 

D. M. Kinney* 

C. D. Masters* 

V. E. McKelvey* 

J. 0. Morgan* 

D. R. Nichols* 

W. C. Overstreet* (retired) 

D. L. Peck* 

D. F. Peterson* 

J. R. Rapp* 

R. W. Shaff* 

R. B. Southard* 

C. W. Sweetwood* 

E. W. Vickers* 

R. E. Wallace* 

R. L. Wesson* 

F. C. Whitmore, Jr.* 

M. E. Williams* 

A. N. Williamson* 

N. P. Yingling* 

Venezuela: 

H. J. Lavie* 

·Yugoslavia: 

Tomislav Ivanov 

Mihajlo Siskovski 

Zambia: 

N.J. Money 
INTERGOVERNMENTAL AND INTERNATIONAL REPRESENTATIVES, INTERNATIONAL 

CENTENNIAL SYMPOSIUM 

[Invited speakers are marked with an asterisk(*}] 

Association of Geoscientists for International Development (Headquarters: Caracas, Venezuela): 

D. E. Ajakaiye, President (Zaria, Nigeria) 

R. A. Blais, Vice President (Montreal, Canada) 

Emilio Herrero, Treasurer (Headquarters) 

Ali rio Bellizzia, General Secretary (Headquarters) 

Victor Ricaldi, Executive Coordinator (Headquarters) 

M. B. Katz, Editor (Australia) 

S. D. Limaye, Editor (India) 

Commission for the Geological Map of the World (Secretariat: Paris, France): 

Frances Delany*, Secretary General 

European Space Agency (Headquarters: Paris, France): 

Gottfried Konecny*, Special Centennial Representative 

Institute for International Mineral Resources Development (Headquarters: Shizuoka-ken, Japan): 

Chikao Nishiwaki*, President 

Inter-American Development Bank (Headquarters: Washington, D.C.): 

B. F. Grossling*, Natural Resources Advisor 

International Atomic Energy Agency (Headquarters: Vienna, Austria): 

James Cameron*, First Officer, Division of Nuclear Power and Reactors 

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development of the World Bank (Headquarters: Washington, D.C.): 

Eric Saks, Senior Cartographer 

Ulrich Boegli, Cartographer 

Hans StOlle, Cartographer 

International Geological Congress, 26th (Paris, France, July 1980): 

Paul Sangnier, Secretary General 

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Headquarters: Schloss Laxenburg, Austria): 

Michel Grenon*, Director 

International Union of Geological Sciences (Secretariat: Ottawa, Ontario, Canada): 

Rudolph Trumpy*, President (Zurich, Switzerland) 

W. W. Hutchison*, Secretary General (Ottawa, Ontario, Canada) 

Vera Lafferty, Editor (Ottawa, Ontario, Canada) 

International Water Resources Association (Headquarters: Buenos Aires, Argentina): 

G. J. Cino*, President 

Pan American Health Organization of the World Health Organization (Headquarters: Washington, D.C.): 

Santiago Pinzon, WHO Fellow from Mexico 

United Nations (Headquarters: U.N. Building, New York, N.Y.): 

Coordinating Committee Offshore Prospecting (U.N. Building, Bangkok, Thailand): 

A. Johann as*, Project Manager, Regional Offshore Prospecting in East Asia 

Department of Technical Cooperation for Development, Division of Natural Resources, Energy, and 

Transport (U.N. Building, New York, N.Y.): 

S. Alpan*, Interregional Adviser 

Alexes Beus, Technical Adviser 

i:r U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1981-361-614/290 

41