## September 24 , 2010

The Honorable Gina McCarthy

Assistant Administrator for Air and Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Ariel Rios Federal Building Washington D.C. 20460

Dear Ms. McCarthy:

Thank you for meeting with us on September 7, 2010 to discuss the EPA’s regulation
regarding uncharged HCFC

- 22 air conditioning condensing units.

As you requested, attached please find our analysis of the potential scope of this issue

, including the additional HCFC demand that could be created

. Our analysis provides

estimates of HCFC

- 22 consumption and greenhouse gas emissions for ten different

scenarios

. In order to provide a broader picture of the residen tial air conditioning

market, I have also attached historical shipment data i nformation for residential central
air conditioners and heat pumps.

I hope that the enclosed information will be helpful to EPA in assessing the potential
environmental impact resulting from the domestic sale of uncharged HCFC

- 22 air
conditioning condensi ng units. If you need further information or have questions about
the analysis, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Thank you for your consideration and attention to this matter.

Sincerely,

Karim Amrane
Vice President, Regulatory and Research
Tel: (703) 524

- 8800 ext.307

Email: kamrane@ahrinet.org

Enclosure: As stated

cc: Drusilla Hufford, EPA

# R

- 22 Condensing Units Analysis

- Annual shipment increase

– 1% Assumptions

- 80% of annual shipment of split air conditioners and heat pumps is for the replacement market

- No servicing

- Average refrigerant charge

- 2 lbs/ton

- Average condensing unit cooling ca pacity

- 3 tons

- Average SEER of replacement unit (AC & HP)

– 10 SEER

- Average HSPF of replacement HP

– 6.8 HSPF

Scenario 1

– 1 0% of Units Replaced Use R

- 22

year Shipment
Split A/C) Shipment
Split HPs Shipment
Replacement

Market (AC+HP) Shipment

- R

- 22

Un its (AC+HP) Amount of

R

- 22

Used (MT) Total

Allocation (MT) % of Total

Allocation Cumulative
Energy

Increase (kWh) Cumulative
Operating

Cost Increase ($) Cumulative
Primary
Energy

Increase (quads) Cumulative

Emission

Increase
(MT CO2E)

2010 2 ,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 345,474 940 50,000 2% 349,916,865 39,645,581 0.0036183 209,950

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 348,929 950 45,400 2% 703,332,899 79,687,617 0.0072727 422,000

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 352,418 959 40,700 2% 1,060,2 83,093 120,130,074 0.0109637 636,170

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 355,942 969 35,900 3% 1,420,802,790 160,976,956 0.0146916 852,482

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 359,502 978 31,100 3% 1,784,927,683 202,232,306 0.0184568 1,070,957

2015 3,064,3 69 1,474,341 3,630,968 363,097 988 27,709 4% 2,152,693,825 243,900,210 0.0222597 1,291,616

## Scenario 2

– 2 0% of Units Replaced Use R

- 22

year Shipment
Split A/C) Shipment
Split HPs Shipment
Replacement

Market (AC+HP) Shipment

- R

- 22

Units (AC+HP) Amount of

R

- 22

Used
(MT) Total

Allocation
(MT) % of Total

Allocation Cumulative
Energy

Increase
(kWh) Cumulative
Operating

Cost Increase ($) Cumulative
Primary
Energy

Increase
(quads) Cumulative

Emission

Increase (MT
CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 690,948 1,880 50,000 4% 699,833,731 79,291,162 0.0072365 419,900

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 697,858 1,899 45,400 4% 1,406,665,798 159,375,235 0.0145454 843,999

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 704,836 1,918 40,700 5% 2,120,566,187 240 ,260,149 0.0219274 1,272,340

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 711,885 1,937 35,900 5% 2,841,605,579 321,953,912 0.0293833 1,704,963

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 719,004 1,957 31,100 6% 3,569,855,366 404,464,613 0.0369136 2,141,913

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 726,194 1,976 27,709 7% 4,305,387,650 487,800,421 0.0445193 2,583,233



## Scenario 3

– 3 0% of Units Replaced Use R

- 22

year Shipment
Split A/C) Shipment
Split HPs Shipment
Replacement

Market (AC+HP) Shipment

- R

- 22

Units (AC+HP) Amount of

R

- 22

Used
(MT) Total

Allocation
(MT) % of Total

Allocation Cumulative
Energy

Increase
(kWh) Cumulative Operating

Cost Increase ($) Cumulative
Primary
Energy

Increase
(quads) Cumulative

Emission

Increase
(MT
CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 1,036,422 2,821 50,000 6% 1,049,750,596 118,936,743 0.0108548 629,850

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 1,046,787 2,849 45,400 6% 2,109,998,698 239,062,852 0.0218182 1,265,999

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 1,057,254 2,877 40,700 7% 3,180, 849,280 360,390,223 0.0328912 1,908,510

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 1,067,827 2,906 35,900 8% 4,262,408,369 482,930,868 0.0440749 2,557,445

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 1,078,505 2,935 31,100 9% 5,354,783,049 606,696,919 0.0553704 3,212,870

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 1,089,290 2,965 27,709 11% 6,458,081,475 731,700,631 0.066779 3,874,849

## Scenario 4

– 4 0% of Units Replaced Use R

- 22

year Shipment
Split A/C) Shipment
Split HPs Shipment
Replacement

Market (AC+HP) Shipment

- R

- 22

Un its (AC+HP) Amount of

R

- 22

Used
(MT) Total

Allocation
(MT) % of Total

Allocation Cumulative
Energy

Increase
(kWh) Cumulative Operating

Cost Increase ($) Cumulative
Primary
Energy

Increase
(quads) Cumulative

Emission

Increase
(MT
CO2E)

2010 2 ,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 1,381,897 3,761 50,000 8% 1,399,667,461 158,582,323 0.0144731 839,800

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 1,395,716 3,799 45,400 8% 2,813,331,597 318,750,470 0.0290909 1,687,999

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 1,409,673 3,8 37 40,700 9% 4,241,132,374 480,520,298 0.0438549 2,544,679

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 1,423,769 3,875 35,900 11% 5,683,211,159 643,907,824 0.0587665 3,409,927

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 1,438,007 3,914 31,100 13% 7,139,710,732 808,929,226 0.0738273 4,283,826

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 1,452,387 3,953 27,709 14% 8,610,775,300 975,600,841 0.0890386 5,166,465



## Scenario 5

– 50% of Units Replaced Use R

- 22

Year Shipment
Split A/C) Shipment
Split HPs Shipment
Replacement

Market (AC +HP) Shipment

- R

- 22

Units (AC+HP) Amount

of R

- 22

Used (MT) Total

Allocation (MT) % of

Total

Allocation Cumulative
Energy Increase (kWh) Cumulative
Operating

Cost Increase ($) Cumulative
Primary
Energy

Increase (quads) Cumulative

E mission

Increase (MT CO 2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 1,727,371 4,701 50,000 9% 1,749,584,326 198,227,904 0.0180914 1,049,751

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 1,744,644 4,748 45,400 10% 3,516,664,496 398,438,087 0.0363636 2,109,999

2012 2,974,246 1,4 30,981 3,524,182 1,762,091 4,796 40,700 12% 5,301,415,467 600,650,372 0.0548186 3,180,849

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 1,779,712 4,844 35,900 13% 7,104,013,949 804,884,780 0.0734581 4,262,408

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 1,797,509 4,892 31, 100 16% 8,924,638,414 1,011,161,532 0.0922841 5,354,783

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 1,815,484 4,941 27,709 18% 10,763,469,125 1,219,501,052 0.1112983 6,458,081

## Scenario 6

– 6 0% of Units Replaced Use R

- 22

year Shipment
Split A/C) Shipment
Split HPs Shipment
Replacement

Market (AC+HP) Shipment

- R

- 22

Units (AC+HP) Amount of

R

- 22

Used
(MT) Total

Allocation
(MT) % of Total

Allocation Cumulative
Energy
Increase (kWh) Cumulative
Operating

Cost Increase ($) Cumulative
Primary
Energy

Increase
(quads) C umulative

Emission

Increase (MT
CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 2,072,845 5,641 50,000 11% 2,099,501,192 237,873,485 0.0217096 1,259,701

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 2,093,573 5,698 45,400 13% 4,219,997,395 478,125,705 0.0436 363 2,531,998

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 2,114,509 5,755 40,700 14% 6,361,698,561 720,780,447 0.0657823 3,817,019

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 2,135,654 5,812 35,900 16% 8,524,816,738 965,861,736 0.0881498 5,114,890

2014 3,034,028 1,459,74 4 3,595,018 2,157,011 5,871 31,100 19% 10,709,566,097 1,213,393,839 0.1107409 6,425,740

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 2,178,581 5,929 27,709 21% 12,916,162,950 1,463,401,262 0.1335579 7,749,698



## Scenario 7

– 7 0% of Units Replaced Use R

- 22

year Shi pment Split A/C) Shipment
Split HPs Shipment
Replacement

Market (AC+HP) Shipment

- R

- 22

Units (AC+HP) Amount of

R

- 22

Used
(MT) Total

Allocation
(MT) % of Total

Allocation Cumulative
Energy
Increase (kWh) Cumulative Operating

Cost Increase ($) Cumulative

Pr imary
Energy

Increase
(quads) Cumulative

Emission

Increase
(MT
CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 2,418,319 6,582 50,000 13% 2,449,418,057 277,519,066 0.0253279 1,469,651

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 2,442,502 6,648 45,400 15% 4 ,923,330,295 557,813,322 0.0509091 2,953,998

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 2,466,927 6,714 40,700 16% 7,421,981,654 840,910,521 0.076746 4,453,189

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 2,491,596 6,781 35,900 19% 9,945,619,528 1,126,838,693 0.1028414 5, 967,372

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 2,516,512 6,849 31,100 22% 12,494,493,780 1,415,626,145 0.1291977 7,496,696

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 2,541,678 6,917 27,709 25% 15,068,856,775 1,707,301,473 0.1558176 9,041,314

## Sce nario 8

– 8 0% of Units Replaced Use R

- 22

Y ear Shipment
Split A/C) Shipment
Split HPs Shipment
Replacement

Market (AC+HP) Shipment

- R

- 22

Units (AC+HP) Amount of

R

- 22

Used
(MT) Total

Allocation
(MT) % of Total

Allocation Cumulative
Energy
Increase (kWh) Cumulative
Operati ng
Cost Increase ($) Cumulative
Primary
Energy

Increase
(quads) Cumulative

Emission

Increase (MT CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 2,763,793 7,522 50,000 15% 2,799,334,922 317,164,647 0.0289462 1,679,601

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,48 9,289 2,791,431 7,597 45,400 17% 5,626,663,194 637,500,940 0.0581818 3,375,998

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 2,819,345 7,673 40,700 19% 8,482,264,748 961,040,596 0.0877098 5,089,359

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 2,847,539 7,750 35,900 22% 11,36 6,422,318 1,287,815,649 0.117533 6,819,853

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 2,876,014 7,827 31,100 25% 14,279,421,463 1,617,858,452 0.1476545 8,567,653

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 2,904,774 7,906 27,709 29% 17,221,550,600 1,951,201,683 0.1780772 10,332,930



## Scenario 9

– 9 0% of Units Replaced Use R

- 22

year Shipment
Split A/C) Shipment
Split HPs Shipment
Replacement

Market (AC+HP) Shipment

- R

- 22

Units (AC+HP) Amount of

R

- 22

Used
(MT) Total

Allocation
(MT) % of Total

Allocation Cumulative
Energy
Increase (kWh) Cumulative Operating

Cost Increase ($) Cumulative
Primary
Energy

Increase
(quads) Cumulative

Emission

Increase
(MT
CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 3,109,267 8,462 50,000 17% 3,149,251,788 356,810,228 0.0325644 1,889, 551

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 3,140,360 8,547 45,400 19% 6,329,996,093 717,188,557 0.0654545 3,797,998

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 3,171,763 8,632 40,700 21% 9,542,547,841 1,081,170,670 0.0986735 5,725,529

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559, 423 3,203,481 8,719 35,900 24% 12,787,225,107 1,448,792,605 0.1322246 7,672,335

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 3,235,516 8,806 31,100 28% 16,064,349,146 1,820,090,758 0.1661113 9,638,609

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 3,267,871 8,894 27,709 32% 1 9,374,244,425 2,195,101,893 0.2003369 11,624,547

## Scenario 10

– 10 0% of Units Replaced Use R

- 22

Y ear Shipment
Split A/C) Shipment
Split HPs Shipment
Replacement

Market (AC+HP) Shipment

- R

- 22

Units (AC+HP) Amount of

R

- 22

Used
(MT) Total

Allocation
(MT ) % of Total

Allocation Cumulative
Energy
Increase (kWh) Cumulative Operating

Cost Increase ($) Cumulative
Primary
Energy

Increase
(quads) Cumulative

Emission

Increase
(MT
CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 3,454,741 9,402 50,000 19% 3 ,499,168,653 396,455,808 0.0361827 2,099,501

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 3,489,289 9,496 45,400 21% 7,033,328,992 796,876,175 0.0727272 4,219,997

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 3,524,182 9,591 40,700 24% 10,602,830,935 1,201,300,745 0.1096372 6,361,699

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 3,559,423 9,687 35,900 27% 14,208,027,897 1,609,769,561 0.1469163 8,524,817

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 3,595,018 9,784 31,100 31% 17,849,276,829 2,022,323,065 0.1845681 10,709,566

2015 3,064,369 1,474 ,341 3,630,968 3,630,968 9,882 27,709 36% 21,526,938,250 2,439,002,104 0.2225965 12,916,163

# Historical Shipment Data for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

Year Shipment

A/C + HPs

1990 3,320,960

1991 3,404,836

1992 3,331,673

1993 3,644,539

1994 4,416,864

1995 4,558,610

1996 5,128,259

1997 4,818,281

1998 5,582,492

1999 5,936,711

2000 5,948,954

2001 5,636,247

2002 6,154,920

2003 6,194,924

2004 6,748,563

2005 7,939,397

2006 6,365,782

2007 5,688,759

2008 5,199,995

2009 4,672,025