(83 pages) 

 CAEP.8.IP.014.3.3.ver.en.doc

COMMITTEE ON AVIATION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION (CAEP) 

EIGHTH MEETING 

Montréal, 1 to 12 February 2010 

Agenda Item 2: Review of technical proposals relating to aircraft engine emissions 

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE NOx STRINGENCY SCENARIOS 

(Presented by the Rapporteurs of FESG) 

SUMMARY 

CAEP has tasked FESG to study the effects of a number of NOx stringency 

scenarios. FESG assessed the cost impacts of the NOx stringency scenarios, 

and brought the results together with the analysis of emissions reductions 

undertaken by MODTF modellers to present cost-effectiveness results. This 

paper presents an overview of the analysis of the cost impacts, emissions 

reductions and environmental trade-offs of the NOx stringency scenarios 

together with the resulting cost-effectiveness findings, with cost per tonne of 

NOx reduced and rankings presented for each stringency scenario. A joint 

FESG/MODTF working paper highlighting the results of these analyses is 

provided in CAEP/8-WP/151

. 

1. INTRODUCTION 

1.1 The work programme of the CAEP working groups and task forces for the CAEP/8 cycle was 

established at the CAEP/7 meeting held in Montreal, Canada on February 5-16, 2007. It was subsequently 

amended during the cycle to reflect the guidance provided by the CAEP Steering Group as well as the 

new tasks that were assigned to the working groups. 

1.2 At the first Steering Group meeting of the CAEP/8 cycle, held in Zurich, Switzerland on 

November 26-30, 2007, the FESG work programme was updated and three new tasks were assigned to 

 

1

 Ref. [CAEP/8-WP/15] “Environmental and Economic Assessment of the NOx Stringency Scenarios”. 

International Civil Aviation Organization

INFORMATION PAPER

CAEP/8-IP/14 

30/11/09 

English only
CAEP/8-IP/14 - 2 - 

the group, including the task to “perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of potential stringency scenarios to 

reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx)”

2

 for consideration at CAEP/8. 

1.3 In December 2007, FESG established a specific Task Group to bring forward this task: the NOx 

Stringency Task Group (NSTG). The FESG NSTG has defined all the economic, financial and modelling 

assumptions to be used in the economic analysis and has performed the economic assessment of the 

proposed stringency scenarios. 

1.4 The FESG NOx Cost Spreadsheet Model (NOx-CSM) has been used as the primary tool in the 

economic assessment of the NOx stringency scenarios under consideration for CAEP/8. A second model, 

the APMT-Economics3

, has been utilized to compare results to the NOx-CSM for a selected number of 

scenarios. The assessment of the economic costs of the stringency scenarios was done relative to the 

ICAO CAEP/6 NOx standard4

 against a base case that involved no policy action and for two effective 

implementation dates: 31 December 2012 and 31 December 2016. A sensitivity analysis was also 

conducted by varying the discount rates. 

1.5 In order to perform the economic assessment of the proposed NOx stringency scenarios the FESG 

NSTG has worked in close coordination with other CAEP working groups. WG1 (Noise Technical), 

WG3 (Emissions Technical) and MODTF (Modelling and Databases Task Force) provided inputs, 

assumptions and support to FESG for the economic assessment of the proposed NOx stringency 

scenarios. 

1.6 This report presents the results of the cost-effectiveness analysis performed by the FESG NSTG 

in regards the proposed NOx stringency scenarios under consideration for CAEP/8. The objectives and 

scope of the analysis are discussed in Section 2. A description of the models, databases and methods used 

in the analysis is provided in Section 3. A summary of modelling assumptions is presented in Section 4. 

The benefit and cost results are reported respectively in Section 5 and 6 of the report. Section 7 presents a 

discussion of the interdependencies. And finally, the results of the cost-effectiveness analysis and the 

ranking of the scenarios are provided in Section 8. All costs are presented in terms of 2009 US Dollars. 

The benefit results were computed by MODTF, and the details of their analyses are presented in CAEP/8-

IP/135

. An overview of the NOx Stringency Assessment is provided in a joint FESG/MODTF report to 

this meeting (CAEP/8-WP/15)6

. 

2. OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE OF ANALYSIS 

2.1 The objective of economic analysis performed by FESG is to provide CAEP with a reasonable 

assessment of the economic costs and environmental benefits, expressed in amount of NOx emissions 

reduction from a “No ICAO action” baseline, associated with the implementation of the NOx stringency 

scenarios under consideration for CAEP/8. 

 

2

 Ref. [CAEP-SG/20071-SD/5] “Summary of Discussions and Decisions of the Fifth Meeting of the Steering Group. Friday, 30 November 2007, 

(Presented by the Chairman)”. First Steering Group meeting of the CAEP/8 cycle held in Zurich (Switzerland) on November 26-30, 2007. 

Appendix F – Forecast and Economic Analysis – FESG. Task F.07, p. 22. 3

 APMT – Aviation environmental Portfolio Management Tool. Suite of software tools developed by the United States Federal Aviation 

Administration and its consultants. 4

 Ref. Convention on International Civil Aviation. Annex 16 – Environmental Protection. Volume II – Aircraft Engine Emissions. ICAO 

International Standards and Recommended Practices. 5

 Ref. [CAEP/8-IP/13] “NOx Stringency”. 6

 Ref. [CAEP/8-WP/15] “Environmental and Economic Assessment of the NOx Stringency Scenarios” 
- 3 - CAEP/8-IP/14 

2.2 The range of potential scenarios to be considered in the NOx stringency assessment was agreed 

upon in November 2007. It was also agreed that the results of the assessment would have to be reported 

separately for small and large engine categories.7,8

2.3 The 10 scenarios used in the assessment of the NOx stringency were provided by WG3 and are 

defined as incremental increases in the NOx stringency with respect to the CAEP/6 NOx standard and 

shown in Table 2.1. 

Table 2.1 – CAEP/8 NOx Stringency Scenarios 

NOx Stringency 

Scenario 

Small Engines Large Engines 

[26.7 kN / 89 kN Foo]9,10 OPR11>30 Slope12

1 -5% / -5% -5% 2 

2 -10% / -10% -10% 2.2 

3 -10% / -10% -10% 2 

4 -5% / -15% -15% 2.2 

5 -15% / -15% -15% 2.2 

6 -5% / -15% -15% 2 

7 -15% / -15% -15% 2 

8 -10% / -20% -20% 2.2 

9 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2 

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2 

2.4 The interdependencies13 between NOx emissions, noise and other emissions (i.e. CO2 emissions) 

associated with the engine technology responses, with the introduction of a fuel burn penalty (range of 

0% to +0.5%) and/or a noise penalty, have been taken into consideration in the analysis. Two scenarios 

were presented for assessing the noise trade-off associated with NOx stringency scenarios. One option 

was to apply the noise penalty within the analysis including associated costs and the second option was to 

assume that the noise penalty was mitigated at additional cost and implications. FESG has only analyzed 

the second option whereby the noise penalty was mitigated and has assessed the resulting cost 

implications. 

2.5 The proposed stringency scenarios have been evaluated according to both the recurring and nonrecurring costs that would be incurred by engine manufacturers and aircraft operators, and their 

effectiveness in reducing NOx emissions from aircraft engines. 

2.6 The results of the analysis have been expressed in cost per tonne of NOx emissions reduction 

during the Landing and Take-Off (LTO) cycle. 

 

7

 Ref. [CAEP-SG/20071-SD/4] “Summary of Discussions and Decisions of the Fifth Meeting of the Steering Group. Thursday, 29 November 

2007, (Presented by the Chairman)”. First Steering Group meeting of the CAEP/8 cycle held in Zurich (Switzerland) on November 26-29, 

2007. Paragraph 3.17. p. 7 8

 Ref. [CAEP-SG/20071-WP/12] “ICAO Annex 16 Volume II NOx Stringency Scenarios Analysis”. [CAEP-SG/20071-WP/25] “CAEP/8 NOx 

Stringency Assessment.” 9

 Foo – Thrust rating. For engine emissions purposes, the maximum power/thrust available for takeoff under normal operating conditions at ISA 

(International Standard Atmosphere) sea level static conditions without the use of water injection as approved by the certificating authority. 

Thrust is expressed in kilonewtons (kN). 10 Incremental stringency scenarios defined for small engines with thrust ratings (Foo) comprised between 26.7 kN and 89 kN. 11 OPR – Overall Engine Pressure Ratio. The engine pressure ratio is defined as the ratio of the mean total pressure at the last compressor 

discharge plane of the compressor to the mean total pressure at the compressor entry plane, when the engine is developing its takeoff thrust 

rating (in ISA sea-level static conditions). 12 Slope of the line of the NOx stringency scenarios at engine pressure ratio (PR) greater than 30. 13 That is the trade-off associated with the stringency scenarios. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 - 4 - 

2.7 Although all aircraft NOx emissions have been considered in the analysis (i.e. emissions from 

landing and take-off cycle as well as cruise emissions), the results presented in the tables and graphs of 

the report pertain mainly to NOx emissions during the landing and take-off cycle. The results on fuel burn 

and reductions in NOx emissions are discussed separately. 

3. MODELS, DATABASES AND METHODS 

3.1 Models 

Modelling Approach 

3.1.1 Certain analysis considerations were updated or refined in the CAEP/8 assessment exercise as 

compared to CAEP/6. An overview of the key changes in analysis considerations between CAEP/6 and 

CAEP/8 is provided in Appendix A, Table A.1. 

3.1.2 Environmental models were run by MODTF to assess the impact of the stringency scenarios in 

reducing NOx emissions. In addition, these models considered impacts on fuel burn and noise. The key 

tool used for calculating the cost impacts was the NOx-CSM developed by FESG. The APMT-Economics 

was used as a supplementary tool for select stringency scenarios (7 and 10) to verify the results calculated 

with the NOx-CSM. The interrelationships and data flows between these models are shown in Appendix 

A, Figure A.3. 

Benefits Modelling 

3.1.3 The environmental modelling framework used by MODTF for the assessment of the NOx 

stringency scenarios is described in CAEP/8-IP/13. For each of the 10 stringency scenarios, MODTF 

conducted NOx and fuel burn modelling in the terminal area below 3000 ft (Local Air Quality emissions, 

LAQ) and above 3000 ft (Greenhouse gas emissions, GHG), as well as a noise assessment. Modelling 

results for NOx and fuel burn were presented separately for LAQ, GHG and full flight for each of the 

stringency scenarios and the baseline, with scenarios ranked in order of percentage difference between 

scenario and baseline. Noise results were also presented, including consideration of any trade-off 

penalties for noise. 

3.1.4 The primary data that MODTF provided to FESG was fleet operations, fuel burn and LAQ NOx 

data for each of the stringency scenarios compared with the baseline for the years 2006, 2012, 2016, 2026 

and 2036. A further description of the MODTF and FESG data handover is described in Appendix G. 

FESG interpolated the data provided by MODTF for the intermediate years. This data was used in the 

assessment of the environmental benefits, reported in Section 5. The full summary list of MODTF data 

provided to FESG is shown in Table 3.1. 
- 5 - CAEP/8-IP/14 

Table 3.1 – MODTF Data Provided to FESG 

Data Category Description 

Operating aircraft and engines The number of aircraft and associated engines operating in the 

global fleet for the purposes of analysis 

New aircraft and engines delivered The new aircraft and associated engines delivered for each 

scenario analyzed 

Operating aircraft and engine cycles The number of aircraft and engine operations 

Operating aircraft and engine block hours14 The aggregate number of block hours flown by the aircraft and 

associated engines in the analysis 

Total fuel consumption Gate-to-gate block fuel consumption derived from GHG models 

Total LTO NOx generated Derived from LAQ models 

Cost Modelling 

3.1.5 For analyzing the NOx stringency scenarios FESG reviewed two models: the NOx-CSM and the 

APMT-Economics15. This process included both models running a NOx stringency sample problem, 

using a simplified set of common assumptions. The resulting cost impacts from the two models for the 

sample problem were closely aligned. In September 2008, the Steering Group agreed that it was 

appropriate to use these two models to assess the cost impacts of NOx stringency scenarios. 

3.1.6 The FESG NOx-CSM was developed for assessing the cost impacts resulting from the 

introduction of NOx stringency scenarios for CAEP/6, and has been updated for use in CAEP/8. The 

main inputs of the NOx-CSM are: 

Table 3.2 – Primary Inputs to the NOx-CSM 

Data Category Description 

Fleet forecast 

A unique detailed fleet forecast for each NOx stringency scenario was developed 

from the CAEP/8 FESG fleet forecast populated with aircraft / engine combinations 

from the WG1-WG3 Growth and Replacement database. The detailed fleet forecast 

includes engines for the growth and replacement segment of the forecast that are 

modified with an appropriate technology response to make them compliant with the 

NOx stringency scenario being analyzed. The aircraft / engine combinations are 

grouped into common groups of technology response, including projections of 

utilization, fuel use and emissions data. 

Manufacturer and 

airline costs 

Non-recurring and recurring manufacturer and airline cost data, including aircraft 

fuel burn 

Financial 

assumptions All financial parameters, including fuel price and discount rates 

3.1.7 The NOx-CSM aggregates projected costs over the forecast period at the global level, combining 

non-recurring and recurring costs to manufacturers and the recurring costs incurred by airline operators. It 

computes the present value of the discounted cash flows for each stringency scenario compared against 

the no stringency base case using a range of discount rates. The model considers the supply side and is 

 

14 Aircraft block hours are the total time from departure ramp (gate) to arrival ramp (gate) often expressed as “gate-to-gate” time. Some of the 

cost calculations required flight hours which were derived by FESG by subtracting 26 minutes of total taxi time. 15 Ref. [CAEP/8-IP/29] “Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Economics (APMT-Economics)”. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 - 6 - 

limited to calculating the cost impacts incurred by the aviation industry. It does not consider demand 

responses. 

3.1.8 The APMT-Economics model is designed to model aviation market responses to a range of 

environmental policy measures. It produces both demand and supply projections for the baseline and 

policy scenarios, allowing a new equilibrium to be brought into the market for air travel after a change in 

policy. Thus, unlike the NOx-CSM, it is able to consider the demand impacts arising from higher airline 

costs passed on to passengers, though this function can be switched off. The primary role for APMTEconomics in the CAEP/8 NOx stringency analysis was to verify the NOx-CSM results, and to perform 

this role the demand response function was disabled to ensure maximum possible consistency between the 

models for the comparison runs. 

3.1.9 Although underlying modelling differences were observed in the detailed results, under the same 

assumptions the two models produced consistent results. The APMT-Economics was also used to test 

demand sensitivity to potential industry cost increases for the most stringent measure. This test showed 

minimal impact, confirming that potential demand effects would not change the outcome produced by the 

NOx-CSM for the CAEP/8 NOx stringency analysis. The additional cost increases in the NS10 stringency 

scenario lead to a reduction in demand of 0.07%. The MS3 category technology response 0-0.5% fuel 

penalty scenario results in an additional fuel use of 0.13%, which was lowered by the effect of demand 

reduction to 0.09%. 

3.2 Databases 

3.2.1 There were a number of databases used by MODTF in support of the benefits portion of the NOx 

stringency assessment. These are documented extensively in CAEP/8-IP/13. 

3.2.2 One database used by FESG as an aid in developing some of the cost assumptions was the 2008 

mid-year AVITAS16 Jet Engine Value guide as a source for engine prices. 

3.3 Methods 

Technology Responses Assessed By WG3 

3.3.1 A Modification Status (MS) methodology was developed by WG3 for assessing engine 

technology responses to the CAEP/8 NOx stringency scenarios. It includes Minor Changes (MS1), Scaled 

Proven Technology (MS2) and New Technology (MS3). 

3.3.2 The methodology covers the situation where an engine family fails to comply with a NOx 

stringency scenario and proposes the different categories of response that may be used to bring into 

compliance any in-production engine family failing a new CAEP/8 NOx stringency standard. The 

approach follows previous practice used for CAEP/6 but updates a number of assumptions. 

3.3.3 WG3 determined which engines from the WG1-WG3 Growth and Replacement database would 

fail each NOx stringency scenario and determined the required technology response (e.g. MS1, MS2 or 

MS3) required to make the engine compliant with the stringency scenario. A summary description of 

these technology responses follows. A full description of the technological response to the NOx 

stringency options under consideration for CAEP/8 can be found in CAEP/8-IP/1217. 

 

16 AVITAS, Inc. operates as an aviation consulting company which provides valuations and other advisory services to airlines, financial 

institutions, maintenance facilities, manufacturers, government agencies, and law firms. source: www.avitas.com 17 Ref. [CAEP/8-IP/12] “Analysis of the Technological Response to a Range of NOx Stringency Options”. 
- 7 - CAEP/8-IP/14 

MS1 – Minor Change 

3.3.4 The MS1 designation covers a range of possible minor changes to existing engines not involving 

substantive material change to the engine combustor hardware or operating costs. The typical NOx 

reduction would be of the order of 1-5%. Cost impacts were estimated to fall in the range of $1-15 million 

per engine family. 

MS2 – Scaled Proven Technology 

3.3.5 This response is defined as where an engine manufacturer applies its best proven combustor 

technology, certified in at least one other engine family, into another engine family that would otherwise 

fail to meet the standard. The MS2 solution would require substantial modelling, design and testing work. 

The improvements in emissions will depend on the engine family to which such a change is applied, but 

manufacturers estimate that it will bring at least a 6% improvement in NOx. The cost of these 

programmes is estimated to be between $50-100 million per engine family. 

MS3 – New Technology Combustors From Research Programmes 

3.3.6 When a manufacturer has no proven technology that can be scaled to provide a solution, some 

technology acquisition will be required. These changes which would go beyond the manufacturer’s 

available technology would involve minimum costs comparable to the top of the MS2 range. The costs 

and timescale of technology acquisition programmes are difficult to assess as no two programmes face the 

same goals or obstacles. This makes it difficult to derive a single cost for one manufacturer to catch up 

with the industry leaders. At the lower end of the range, a MS3 development programme would be similar 

to a MS2 solution with the addition of some applied research for technology acquisition. The upper limit 

on the cost of MS3 is based on the maximum amount a manufacturer would be willing to invest, where 

the alternative is to drop production of an engine type. The total costs for the MS3 category are estimated 

to be between $100-500 million per engine family, with a fuel burn penalty of 0-0.5%. The emissions 

improvement would be greater than MS2, with at least a 10% NOx improvement. 

Summary – Technology Responses 

3.3.7 Whereas Figure 3.3 shows the number of engine families affected by the NOx stringency 

scenarios, Figures 3.4 and 3.5 show the impact in terms of the number of installed engines affected in the 

growth and replacement portion of the FESG fleet forecast. The left-hand side graph in Figure 3.4 shows 

the number of installed engines delivered from 2012 to 2036 for the small engine group that would 

require either a MS1 or MS2 technology response to comply with the NOx stringency scenarios for a 

2012 implementation date. The right-hand side of Figure 3.4 shows a similar graph for a 2016 

implementation date. Figure 3.5 shows a similar pair of graphs for the large engine group. Figures 3.6 and 

3.7 show the percentage of engines delivered throughout the forecast period that would be affected by the 

NOx stringency scenarios. Figure 3.6 shows that less than 10 percent of the small engines delivered 

throughout the forecast period would be affected by stringency scenarios 1-7. For stringency scenarios 8-

10, 18 to 25 percent of the small engines delivered would be affected. From Figure 3.7, it can be observed 

that 30 to 37 percent of the large engines delivered throughout the forecast period would be affected by 

stringency scenarios 1-3, and approximately 50 percent of the engines delivered would be affected with 

stringency scenarios 4-7. For stringency scenarios 8-10, approximately 70 percent of the engines 

delivered would be affected. 

3.3.8 Table 3.8 provides the range of estimates for non-recurring costs per engine family for each MS 

technology response that would be incurred by the engine manufacturers. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 - 8 - 

Figure 3.3 – Number of Engine Families Requiring a MS Technology Response 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Number of Engine Families

MS3

MS2

MS1

Large Engines

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Number of Engine Families

MS2

MS1

Small Engines

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Number of Engine Families

MS3

MS2

MS1

Large Engines

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Number of Engine Families

MS2

MS1

Small Engines

Figure 3.4 – Count of Small Engines Affected by NOx Stringency Scenarios 

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Thousands of Engines

MS2

MS1

2016 Implementation

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Thousands of Engines

MS2

MS1

2012 Implementation

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Thousands of Engines

MS2

MS1

2016 Implementation

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Thousands of Engines

MS2

MS1

2012 Implementation

Figure 3.5 – Count of Large Engines Affected by NOx Stringency Scenarios 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Thousands of Engines

MS3

MS2

MS1

2016 Implementation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Thousands of Engines

MS3

MS2

MS1

2012 Implementation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Thousands of Engines

MS3

MS2

MS1

2016 Implementation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Thousands of Engines

MS3

MS2

MS1

2012 Implementation
- 9 - CAEP/8-IP/14 

Figure 3.6 – Percentage of Small Engines Affected by NOx Stringency Scenarios 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Percent of Engine Deliveries

MS2

MS1

2016 Implementation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Percent of Engine Deliveries

MS2

MS1

2012 Implementation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Percent of Engine Deliveries

MS2

MS1

2016 Implementation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Percent of Engine Deliveries

MS2

MS1

2012 Implementation

Figure 3.7 – Percentage of Large Engines Affected by NOx Stringency Scenarios 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Percent of Engine Deliveries

MS3

MS2

MS1

2016 Implementation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Percent of Engine Deliveries

MS3

MS2

MS1

2012 Implementation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Percent of Engine Deliveries

MS3

MS2

MS1

2016 Implementation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Percent of Engine Deliveries

MS3

MS2

MS1

2012 Implementation

Table 3.8 – Non-Recurring Cost Estimates Per Engine Family 

MS 

Category 

Low Cost Estimate 

($M) 

High Cost Estimate 

($M) 

1 1 15 

2 50 100 

3 100 500 

3+Incremental Noise 110 600 

Cost-Effectiveness Approach 

3.3.9 A cost-effectiveness approach has been adopted where cost impacts incurred by manufacturers 

and operators are compared with the change in the NOx emissions. Benefits are measured by the change 

in global NOx over the LTO cycle (below 3000 ft). The approach includes some analysis of 

interdependencies associated with fuel penalties and noise modification costs associated with some 

improvements in NOx technology required to comply with stringency scenarios. The cost-effectiveness 

approach enables stringency scenarios to be ranked but differs from cost-benefit analysis, where 

environmental, health and other impacts are measured and monetized. 

3.3.10 There are a number of considerations to conducting cost-effectiveness analysis. Firstly, benefits 

are calculated on the basis of inventories (e.g. NOx burden) which are a proxy for environmental and 

health impacts. Also cost-effectiveness analysis allows scenarios to be ranked based on total industry cost 

per unit of NOx reduction. Finally, the assessment of interdependencies between different environmental 

impacts is evaluated. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 - 10 -

4. ASSUMPTIONS 

4.1 A detailed record of assumptions used for the CAEP/8 NOx stringency cost-effectiveness analysis 

is included in Appendix A, Table A.2. This includes comments on the application of each assumption. 

Highlights are provided in Table 4.1 below. 

Table 4.1 – Highlights of NOx Stringency Economic Assessment Assumptions 

Category Description 

1. FESG traffic and fleet 

forecast 

The fleet forecast assumes that all future demand is fully met, though it does 

reflect the impact of existing airport and airspace constraints. 

2. Underlying trend in 

NOx technology 

The simplifying assumption of no change in NOx technology over time avoids 

the difficulty of making projections of future trends in technology. Although this 

assumption may affect the absolute value of costs and size of emissions 

reductions, it is unlikely to affect the ranking of scenarios. 

3. Future tightening of 

NOx stringency 

This simplifying assumption avoids the difficulty of forecasting possible future 

CAEP standards. It has the effect of isolating the costs and benefits to the 

specific stringency scenarios under consideration. 

4. Product compliance 

The market-driven production cut-off assumption means that all newly delivered 

engines are brought into compliance by the time the stringency standard is 

implemented. 

5. Time-in-mode and 

power settings 

The use of ICAO time-in-modes and power setting will over-estimate NOx 

savings, but more modelling development work is necessary before actual 

operating practices can be modelled. 

6. Market shares 

The assumption of equal market shares between manufacturers within each seat 

size category keeps the analysis manageable and avoids the difficulty of making 

possibly controversial assumptions about market shares in future years. 

7. Technology response 

categories Section 3.3 contains a description of the various engine technology responses. 

8. NOx stringency 

scenarios 

There were 10 stringency scenarios evaluated, combining stringencies for small 

and large engines, ranging from 5% to 20% below the ICAO CAEP/6 NOx 

standard. See Table 2.1 for details. 

9. Base year A base year of 2006 was used. 

10. Time horizon The FESG CAEP/8 forecast time horizon was used, with a 10-year extension to 

cover an overall 30-year time horizon. 

11. NOx stringency 

implementation years 

Alternative implementation dates of 31 December 2012 and 31 December 2016 

were used. 

12. Fuel price An average fuel price of $100/barrel (bbl) was used, which is equivalent to $3.00 

per U.S. gallon, with $50/bbl and $150/bbl used as sensitivity tests. 

13. Discount rates 

Since costs and benefits are incurred at different times over the forecast period, 

discounting is used to account for time preference, enabling them to be expressed 

as net present values. A range of discount rates was used to reflect time 

preference rates used by governments for environmental policy analysis and the 

cost of capital to the aviation industry. 

14. Non-recurring costs The cost of NOx technology responses is described in Section 3.3. 

15. Noise trade-off costs 

Incremental non-recurring costs up to $100 million for MS3 technology 

responses were used to reflect the costs of noise modifications where trade-offs 

arose as a result of NOx technology responses. 

16. Incremental 

manufacturing costs 

These costs result from increased engine complexity and more expensive 

materials. 
- 11 - CAEP/8-IP/14 

Table 4.1 – Highlights of NOx Stringency Economic Assessment Assumptions (continued)

Category Description 

17. Incremental fuel burn Increased fuel consumption resulting from engine modifications are only 

assumed to arise with MS3 responses where a range of 0-0.5% was adopted. 

18. Incremental engine 

maintenance These values were based on evidence provided by manufacturers. 

19. Lost revenue from 

incremental fuel burn 

A new approach was adopted to replace the approach used in CAEP/6 where the 

cost of maintaining aircraft mission and payload was estimated. Instead estimates 

of lost revenue that would be incurred on long-range Maximum Take-off Weight 

(MTOW) limited missions were made. 

20. Spare engine costs 

These additional costs arise when a regulatory standard results in a loss of engine 

commonality, resulting in an increase in the number of spare engines required to 

maintain the fleet. This assumption was applied to 50% of the engines requiring 

MS3 technology changes. 

21. Engine price for 

spares 

The average of $8.6 million per engine was based on the mid-2008 AVITAS 

Engine Value Guide. For the cost impact analysis of each NOx stringency 

scenario, a more detailed assessment method was used to estimate a weighted 

average engine price to be used for spare engines, considering only those engines 

that would require a MS3 technology response. 

22. Spare engine function The spares curve used in CAEP/6 showing the distribution of spare engines 

required by engine fleet size was used. 

23. Loss of asset value 

This is based on the premise that the announcement of a new NOx standard will 

reduce the market value of existing fleets that require modifications to bring 

them into compliance. To reflect concerns over whether this represents a genuine 

economic cost, as opposed to a distributional effect, the model was run with and 

without loss of asset value. 

5. BENEFITS RESULTS 

5.1 In this analysis, benefits are measured by the change in global NOx over the LTO cycle (below 

3000 ft). As reported in CAEP/8-IP/13, Figure 5.1 provides a summary of total forecasted NOx benefits 

for each of the 10 NOx stringency scenarios, estimated at three points in time: 2016, 2026 and 2036. The 

results are expressed in tonnes of NOx reduced compared to the level of NOx in the base year (2006), at 

defined points in the future (2016, 2026, 2036). 
CAEP/8-IP/14 - 12 -

Figure 5.1 – MODTF-Generated NOx Benefits 

5.2 Using this MODTF-generated NOx reduction benefit data, FESG calculated a cumulative, 

integrated sum of total NOx reductions for the two effectivity periods of 2012–2036 and 2016–2036. 

These cumulated benefits are shown in Figures 5.2 and 5.3 respectively. For a summary definition of the 

10 NOx stringencies, refer to Table 2.1. 

Figure 5.2 – Cumulative NOx Reduction in Tonnes, 2012-2036 

31 Dec 2012 Implementation

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10

Cumulative Reduction LTO NOx (tonnes)

Small Engines

Large Engines
- 13 - CAEP/8-IP/14 

Figure 5.3 – Cumulative NOx Reduction in Tonnes, 2016-2036 

31 Dec 2016 Implementation

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10

Cumulative Reduction LTO NOx (tonnes)

Small Engines

Large Engines

6. COST RESULTS 

6.1 Overview 

6.1.1 Cost impact results have been generated for over 80 cases, reflecting two implementation dates 

and a range of values for some key assumptions. The results for each NOx stringency scenario cover the 

low to high estimates for the manufacturers’ non-recurring costs. For the stringency scenarios that require 

MS3 technology responses, four additional cases were run for each stringency capturing the cost impact 

for a 0% to 0.5% increase in fuel burn and an incremental non-recurring cost of $10 million and $100 

million to reflect the costs of modifications to mitigate a potential noise trade-off as a result of the NOx 

technology response. 

6.1.2 Figures 6.1 and 6.2 illustrate the lower to upper range of the cost estimates incurred by the 

aviation industry over the forecast time horizon for the small and large engine groups, respectively. The 

top 2 graphs in Figure 6.1 present the cost build-up for the lower bound of the cost uncertainty band for 

the large engine group. The bottom 2 graphs in Figure 6.1 present the cost build-up for the uncertainty 

band, representing the difference between the cost estimates for the lower and upper bounds. The top of 

each stacked bar in the bottom 2 graphs present the upper bound of the cost estimates for the large 

engines. Whereas in Figure 6.2, the cost uncertainty bands for the small engines, as shown by the crosshatched bar segments, are the result of the range of estimates for the manufacturers’ non-recurring costs. 

The lower bound of the cost build-up for the small engines is marked by the bottom of the cross-hatched 

bars and the upper bound of the costs is represented by the top of the cross-hatched bars. 

6.1.3 Each stringency level for small or large engine groups as labelled on the X-axis labels in Figures 

6.1 and 6.2 respectively, belongs to the combined small and large engine stringency scenario (1 through 
CAEP/8-IP/14 - 14 -

10), as identified by the circled number above the bars in the figures. The graphs also present the 

contribution by each cost component. 

6.1.4 The total cost impact for the large engine group at the higher NOx stringencies becomes very 

large, driven by the large number of engine families requiring a MS3 technology response. The costs for 

the small engine group are driven mainly by the estimates for non-recurring costs for the technology 

response. 

6.1.5 The APMT-Economics model was used to verify the NOx-CSM results and although some 

underlying modelling differences were observed in the detailed results, under the same assumptions the 

two models produced consistent results as shown in Appendix B, Figure B.1. 

Figure 6.1 – Cost Breakdown, Large Engines 

NR – manufacturers’ non-recurring costs 
- 15 - CAEP/8-IP/14 

Figure 6.2 – Cost Breakdown, Small Engines 

NR – manufacturers’ non-recurring costs 

6.2 Cost Build-Up 

6.2.1 If one looks in somewhat more detail to the cost build-up for the various stringencies, some 

additional observations can be made as noted below: 

a) The more stringent the scenarios, the larger the spread of uncertainty in the costs. 

b) When considering the maximum cost assumptions for the first five stringency scenarios 

(NS01 through NS05), more than a third of those costs consists of the loss of fleet value. It is 

debatable whether this constitutes a genuine resource cost, and in view of this, results are 

presented with or without this cost item. 

c) For the large engines, the -15% stringency at a slope of 2.0 (scenarios 6 and 7) is roughly a 

factor of 3 to 4.5 times higher costs than the -15% stringency at a slope of 2.2 (scenarios 4 

and 5). The -20% stringency (scenarios 8, 9 and 10) has an even greater cost, ranging from a 

factor of roughly 4.5 to over 10 times that of the -15% stringency with a slope of 2.2 

(scenarios 4 and 5). 

d) Considering again the maximum costs for the -20% stringency scenario (scenarios 8, 9 and 

10), roughly 40% of these costs are driven by the assumption about the fuel penalty. The loss 

of fleet value has diminished to roughly 10%, while the costs for spares are about 20% of the 

maximum cost components. 

e) The difference between the maximum costs for -15% scenario with the slope of 2.2 (NS05) 

and the -15% scenario with the slope of 2.0 (NS06) is largely determined by the costs of 

spare engines (~30%) and the costs driven by the fuel penalty assumption (~25%). 

6.2.2 The detailed tables of cost impact results have been included in Appendix D. The summary tables 

in that appendix present the total costs over the 2009-2036 forecast time horizon breaking out the costs 

for the small and large engine groups separately. The costs are broken out by cost element. The cost 

summaries in Section D-1 are the cumulative costs over the forecast period and Sections D-2 through D-4 

provide the present value of the costs over the forecast period for discount rates of 3%, 7% and 9%. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 - 16 -

6.2.3 While efforts were made to comprehensively quantify all cost impacts, some costs were not 

included. For example, increased industry operational costs in scenarios involving higher fuel burn were 

partially itemized to include fuel costs and costs associated with loss in payload for payload limited 

flights. However, carbon costs for additional CO2 emissions such as those resulting from the inclusion of 

airlines in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme were not itemized and consequently were not included in 

the cost build-up. 

6.3 Fuel Price Sensitivity 

6.3.1 The costs presented in Figure 6.1 include a range in fuel costs resulting from a fuel burn penalty 

associated with engines needing a MS3 technology response, ranging from 0 to 0.5 percent. A sensitivity 

test was performed to test the magnitude of variation in the range of costs resulting from a change in fuel 

price. This sensitivity test was only performed for the large engine group as only engines in this group 

required MS3 technology responses. 

6.3.2 The results of a change in fuel price from $3 per gallon to $1.50 and $4.50 per gallon can be seen 

in Figure 6.3. Since the lower bound of the costs assumes a 0% fuel burn penalty for the MS3 technology 

response, there would be no change in the costs for the lower bound. A change in fuel price results in a 

change in the magnitude of the upper bound of the costs, (i.e. for stringency scenarios with engines 

requiring MS3 technology response with a 0.5% fuel burn penalty), as seen from the figure. However, the 

relative ranking of the cost-effectiveness for the stringency scenarios does not change. 

Figure 6.3 – Cost-Effectiveness Results Sensitivity to Fuel Price 

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

1 2 3 4 - 5 6 - 7 6 - 7 6 - 7 8 - 10 8 - 10 8 - 10

NOx Stringency Option

Cost per tonne NOx Reduction

Options 1-5 have no

technology responses

with a fuel penalty

Fuel Price ($/U.S. Gallon)

 $3.00 $1.50 $4.50

Fuel Price ($/U.S. Gallon)

 $3.00 $1.50 $4.50

Large Engines

3% Discount Rate

2016 Implementation

7. INTERDEPENDENCIES 

7.1 Introduction 

7.1.1 In addition to modelling NOx emissions, the environmental trade-offs associated with the 

proposed stringencies were also modelled. These included fuel burn trade-offs (taking into account a 

possible fuel burn penalty, as per recommendations from WG3), as well as the associated noise trade-offs 

(taking into account a possible noise penalty, as per recommendations from WG1) as specified below: 

a) An increase in fuel use of (0.0 to 0.5%) when a MS3 type of improvement of the engines is 

necessary to make that engine compliant with the stringency level concerned. 
- 17 - CAEP/8-IP/14 

b) A noise penalty of 0.5 dB18 per certification point under the same circumstances. 

7.1.2 Given these assumptions none of the stringency scenarios NS01 through NS05 have any trade-off 

consequences, as all engines can be made compliant without the need of the MS3 technology levels, so 

there is no fuel or noise penalty. In the analysis it is also assumed that the noise penalty of 0.5 dB can be 

avoided by the implementation of additional technology. Given the uncertainty here a range of three 

additional cost figures are given (0, 10 and 100 million dollars) for each engine type that has to be made 

compliant with the MS3 technology level19. 

7.2 Fuel Penalty 

7.2.1 For NOx stringency scenarios 6-10, the upper bound assumption considered a fuel penalty of 

0.5%. The economic consequences have been presented before and the additional amount of CO2 emitted 

can be derived from the total amount of additional fuel used. These have been estimated using the 

greenhouse gas models (AEDT/SAGE, AERO2K, AEM and FAST)20. The MODTF consensus results 

were used. 

7.2.2 Table 7.1 summarizes the additional CO2 emissions associated with the fuel penalty for the 

relevant NOx stringency scenarios for the three points in time where data was generated by MODTF, and 

for the two implementation effectivity start years. 

Table 7.1 – Fuel Penalty Impact on CO2 Emissions 

Effectivity 

Forecast Year 

Additional CO2 Emissions (M Tonnes/year) 

NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10 

2012 

2016 0.088 0.088 0.410 0.410 0.410 

2026 0.385 0.385 1.784 1.784 1.784 

2036 0.789 0.789 3.537 3.537 3.537 

2016 

2016 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

2026 0.299 0.299 1.379 1.379 1.379 

2036 0.705 0.705 3.137 3.137 3.137 

7.2.3 Figures 7.2 and 7.3 provide additional information on total emissions reductions. Note from 

Figure 7.2 below that the total reduction in climb/cruise NOx is several times higher (factor of 

approximately 4-8) than the reduction achieved during the LTO cycles. 

7.2.4 Figure 7.3 conveys the reductions in LTO and climb/cruise NOx in percentage terms, along with 

the percentage increase in CO2 emissions due to the fuel burn penalty from MS3 technology responses in 

NOx stringency scenarios 6-10. 

 

18 dB – decibel. 

19 Note: the upper bound in the cost range for affected stringency scenarios includes the 100 million. 20 AEDT – Aviation environmental Design Tool, SAGE – System for Assessing Aviation’s Global Emissions, AERO2K – Global inventory of 

fuel usage and emissions, AEM – Advanced Emission Model, FAST – Global aviation emissions model. For additional information on these 

models, please refer to [CAEP/8-WP/06] “Models and Databases Evaluation”. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 - 18 -

Figure 7.2 – Total Reductions in LTO and Climb/Cruise NOx 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Mega Tonnes of NOx Reduced

NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx

2016 Implementation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Mega Tonnes of NOx Reduced

NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx

2012 Implementation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Mega Tonnes of NOx Reduced

NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx

2016 Implementation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Mega Tonnes of NOx Reduced

NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx

2012 Implementation

Figure 7.3 – Total Percentage Reductions in LTO and Climb/Cruise NOx, CO2

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Percentage Reduction in Emissions

NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx

CO2

2016 Implementation

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Percentage Reduction in Emissions

NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx

CO2

2012 Implementation

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Percentage Reduction in Emissions

NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx

CO2

2016 Implementation

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency Option

Percentage Reduction in Emissions

NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx

CO2

2012 Implementation

7.3 Noise Penalty 

7.3.1 If the incremental investments by the engine manufacturers to mitigate the noise trade-off are not 

made, the noise contours will increase due to the 0.5 dB assumption for the MS3 technology change. As 

the traffic will increase due to the forecasted growth and aircraft will be retired, a different base case is 

estimated for the years analysed (2016, 2026 and 2036). The additional noise impact caused by the 0.5 dB 

penalty (an increase in area enclosed by the 55, 60 and 65 dB noise contours) is compared with this base 

data. 

7.3.2 In Table 7.4 the results are presented in percentage of change. There is for each case year only 

one percentage given as the relative change did not differ much for the different contours (55, 60 and 65 

dB) and did not vary much for the different models used. It should however be noted that the absolute 

differences between the models used were substantially larger (one or two orders of magnitude) than the 

increases caused by the MS3 noise penalty. 

Table 7.4 – Noise Penalty Impact On Noise Contours 

Forecast 

Year 

Relative change 

in contour area21

Scenario Relative change 

in contour area 

Scenario Relative change 

in contour area 

2016 -0.04% NS06-NS07 -0.02% NS08-NS10 +0.01% 

2026 -0.10% NS06-NS07 -0.11% NS08-NS10 +0.00% 

2036 -0.12% NS06-NS07 -0.06% NS08-NS10 +0.12% 

 

21 In the base case, due to technological fleet improvements. 
- 19 - CAEP/8-IP/14 

7.3.3 From the table it can be concluded that the effect of the noise assumption for the MS3 technology 

has only a small effect on the noise contours. In the base case the change in the fleet mix with the 

technology improvements create even with a substantial traffic increase a small decrease in the area of 

contours. For the stringency scenarios NS06 and NS07 this positive effect is slightly diminished due to 

the 0.5 dB noise penalty. Note the anomaly for the year 2026. This is caused by the fact that the 

percentages presented here do not have the same basis and the results are averaged over the different 

models used. The effect for the stringency scenarios NS08 through NS10 is somewhat larger. In 2026 the 

positive effect of the change in fleet mix and the base case technology improvements is here netted out by 

the MS3 noise penalty. This has led the experts to conclude22 that there is no noise trade-off associated 

with any of the stringency scenarios considered here. This conclusion has been verified at the global, 

regional and airport levels. 

8. COST-EFFECTIVENESS RESULTS AND RANKINGS 

8.1 Given the fact that the stringency scenarios for the small engines work out quite differently from 

those for the large engines it seems appropriate to discuss their results separately. Large engines will be 

addressed first as they account for approximately 99% of the benefits. Complete results for small, large 

and combined engine analyses are contained in Appendices C and F. 

8.2 Large Engines 

8.2.1 The example below in Figure 8.1 includes large engine results for both 2012 and 2016 

implementation dates. Gold columns represent cost uncertainty bands for the 10 stringencies based on a 

2016 implementation date; whereas, the red columns represent the uncertainty bands based on a 2012 

implementation date. The “fan lines” indicate lines of constant cost per tonne of NOx reduction. From 

analysis of Figure 8.1, several conclusions emerge: 

a) The early implementation date of 2012 gives overall lower values for the costs per tonne of 

NOx reduced, enabled by an extra four years of NOx reduction compared to 2016 

implementation, whereas the costs are similar for both implementation dates. 

b) There is not much difference between the first five stringency scenarios – all have overall 

relative low costs per tonne of NOx reduced. 

c) For the scenarios with the slope of 2 (NS6, NS7) the costs increase by a factor of 3 to 4 in 

comparison to scenarios 1-5, while the 20% stringency scenarios with the slope of 2.2 (NS8, 

NS9, NS10) add another cost factor of 2 relative to scenarios 6-7. 

 

22 Please refer to [CAEP/8-IP/13], p.277 for more details. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 - 20 -

Figure 8.1 – NOx Cost-Effectiveness, Large Engines 

$-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

$20,000/tonne

$15,000/tonne

$10,000/tonne

$5,000/tonne

cost effectiveness

$25,000/tonne

$30,000/tonne

$35,000/tonne

$40,000/tonne

*Assumes loss in resale value LTO NOx Reduction

(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost*

($ Million, 2009 – 2036)

$45,000/tonne

$50,000/tonne

$55,000/tonne

$60,000/tonne

Large Engines

• 3% discount rate

• Low/high cost range

Large Engines

• 3% discount rate

• Low/high cost range

NS

6-7

NS

8-10

NS

1-5

2016 2012

$-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

$20,000/tonne

$15,000/tonne

$10,000/tonne

$5,000/tonne

cost effectiveness

$25,000/tonne

$30,000/tonne

$35,000/tonne

$40,000/tonne

*Assumes loss in resale value LTO NOx Reduction

(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost*

($ Million, 2009 – 2036)

$45,000/tonne

$50,000/tonne

$55,000/tonne

$60,000/tonne

Large Engines

• 3% discount rate

• Low/high cost range

Large Engines

• 3% discount rate

• Low/high cost range

NS

6-7

NS

8-10

NS

1-5

2016 2012

8.2.2 The first conclusion implies that an early implementation year would be more cost effective. 

However in the approach used it is assumed that the non-recurring costs for the technical adjustments 

needed start already four years in advance of implementation (from 2009). This may mean that in practice 

a somewhat later date than 2012 is more obvious, particularly for those scenarios involving MS3 

modifications. The CAEP/6 decision made in 2004 with an implementation date of 2008 would be 

consistent with a CAEP/8 implementation date of 2014. Table 8.2 summarizes the large engine rankings, 

with a ranking of 1 representing the lowest cost per tonne NOx reduction. 

Table 8.2 – Cost-Effectiveness Ranking, Large Engines 

Ranking Stringency Reference NOx Reduction % / Slope of Dp/Foo 

1 NS01, NS02, NS03, NS04, NS05 -5% / 2.0, -10% / 2.2, -10% / 2.0, -15% / 2.2 

2 NS06, NS07 -15% / 2.0 

3 NS08, NS09, NS10 -20% / 2.2 

8.3 Small Engines 

8.3.1 When comparing the cost-effectiveness (cost per tonne of NOx reduced) of the small engines the 

results are clearly different – see Figure 8.3. For the large engines reasonably the same results can be 

observed for the first five stringency scenarios and then an increase in two steps. For the small engines 

this is much less clear. Here the cost per tonne reduced remains more or less the same across the board, 

however still with a clear rank order. Note that the rankings as shown in Table 8.4 are not influenced by 

the discount rate used, or by the date that the stringency becomes effective. 
- 21 - CAEP/8-IP/14 

Figure 8.3 – NOx Cost-Effectiveness, Small Engines 

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

$40,000/tonne

$30,000/tonne

$20,000/tonne

$10,000/tonne

cost effectiveness

$50,000/tonne

$60,000/tonne

$70,000/tonne

$80,000/tonne

*Assumes loss in resale value LTO NOx Reduction

(Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost*

($ Million, 2009 – 2036)

Small Engines

• 3% discount rate

• 2016 stringency effectivity

• Low/high cost range

Small Engines

• 3% discount rate

• 2016 stringency effectivity

• Low/high cost range

NS

2,3

NS

9

NS

1,4,6

NS

8

NS

10

NS

5,7

Table 8.4 – Cost Effectiveness Ranking, Small Engines 

Ranking Stringency Reference NOx Reduction % 

1 NS01, NS04, NS06 -5% / -5%, -5% / -15% 

2 NS08 -10% / -20% 

3 NS02, NS03 -10% / -10% 

4 NS10 -20% / -20% 

5 NS09 -15% / -20% 

6 NS05, NS07 -15% / -15% 

8.3.2 It should be noted that the cost per tonne of NOx reduced for the small engines is substantially 

higher (with the exception of NS01, NS04, NS06) than those for the large engines – by a factor of 2 to 4. 

The amount of NOx reduced is an order of magnitude lower (in the order of a few percent of the reduction 

of the large engines). However the reduction achieved compared to the total amount emitted by the small 

engines is in the same order of magnitude as that of the large engines. The fact that these small engines 

have such poor cost-effectiveness values has to do with their low utilisation rates, particularly for the 

business jets. It should also be noted that there is much more uncertainty related to the basic data used 

(flight records) and the FESG CAEP/8 forecast for these aircraft. The absolute total cost for the 

adjustment of the small engines is also substantially lower than for the large engines (8% under NS05, 

which has the largest fraction and 1.5% in NS10, which is the most expensive scenario). 

8.4 Observations 

8.4.1 The discount rate used does not affect the ranking of the NOx stringencies. Higher discount rates 

give higher costs per tonne, which can be explained by the fact that the benefits that accrue further in the 

future become a less dominating factor, while a substantial proportion of the costs are incurred up-front. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 - 22 -

8.4.2 When comparing the results of the analysis with the costs per tonne of NOx reduced that have to 

be made in other sectors (in Europe, € 3,000 – 5,000 per tonne NOx reduced23), the results for the first 

five scenarios are of the same order of magnitude. 

8.4.3 The benefits calculated are the NOx reduction up to 3000 ft. If one takes also into account the 

NOx reductions achieved by the NOx stringency scenarios during the climb/cruise phase of the flight the 

total reductions achieved roughly increase 7 to 8 times and by that the costs per tonne of NOx diminish 

considerably. 

8.5 Avoiding Discontinuities 

8.5.1 In the establishment of a CAEP NOx stringency standard, it is important that the level of 

reduction be consistent across the entire spectrum of engine families and rated thrusts. Selection of a 

consistent reduction level will eliminate any risk of a discontinuity in Dp/Foo in the regime between 

small and large engine families. 

 

23 Ref. (1) RIVM; Synergie Klimaat en NOx-beleid: Een kosten evaluatie tot 2010; in Dutch (Synergy Climate and NOx-policy: A cost 

evaluation till 2010); Smeets W.L.M, Hoen A, Wijngaart R.A. van den; RIVM report 500037006; 2005; Bilthoven, The Netherlands. (2) CE 

Delft. Advies prijsplafond NOx-emissiehandel; in Dutch (Advice on the price ceiling for NOx-emission trade); Delft May 2006. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix A 

(86 pages) 

 CAEP.8.IP.014.3.3.ver.en.doc

APPENDIX A 

TABLES AND GRAPHS 

Table A.1 – Key Changes In Analysis Considerations Between CAEP/6 and CAEP/8 Economic Analyses 

Consideration 

Parameter 

CAEP/6 

Ref: [CAEP/6-IP/13]24

CAEP/8 

Benefit Models EDMS 

GEM MODTF 

NOx Cost Model FESG NOx Cost Spreadsheet Model 

(NOX -CSM) 

NOx-CSM 

Modified to handle small and large 

engine breakout 

+ 

Supplemented by APMT-Economics 

Forecast Time Horizon FESG Fleet Forecast 

2000-2020 

FESG Fleet Forecast 

2006-2036 

Technology Response TL = Technology Level 

TL1, TL2, TL3, TL4, TL5, TL5a, TL5b 

MS = Modification Status 

MS1, MS2, MS3 

Operational 

Fuel Burn Penalty 

Fuel Cost @ price = $0.95/gallon 

TL5b penalty = 2% 

Fuel Cost @ price = $3.00/gallon 

[sensitivities at $1.50 and $4.50] 

MS3 penalty = 0 to 0.5% 

Preserve Airplane 

Payload / Range 

Capability 

Yes - Operator cost to purchase higher 

certified MTOW to allow for increased 

fuel load to preserve mission capability 

No - Operator lost payload revenue 

@ MTOW-limited ops 

Noise Mitigation Cost N/A 

Manufacturer non-recurring cost to 

mitigate noise impact from MS3 

modification 

NOx Stringency 

Scenarios 

-5%,-10%,-15%,-20%,-25%-30% 

@ OPR=30 

10 scenarios as defined in 

Table 2.1 

EDMS – Emissions and Dispersion Modelling System 

GEM – Boeing Global Emissions Model 

MTOW – Maximum Take-Off Weight 

OPR – Operating Pressure Ratio

 

24 Ref. [CAEP/6-IP/13] “Economic Analysis of NOX Emissions Stringency Options”. Information paper submitted by the FESG at the CAEP/7 

Meeting held in Montreal (Canada) on February 2-12, 2004. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix A 

A-2

Table A.2 - Assumptions for CAEP/8 NOx Stringency Economic Analysis 

Modelling Item Assumptions Comments 

FESG Traffic and Fleet 

forecasts 

Central forecasts on the basis of 

unconstrained demand 

Forecasts assume that airport and airspace capacity is 

available to meet projected demand growth. 

Underlying trend in 

NOx technology 

No change over time Simplifying assumption in view of difficulty in 

making projections of trend in NOx emissions and 

not essential for assessment of NOx stringency – 

frozen technology assumption will not affect ranking 

of scenarios 

Future tightening of 

NOx stringency 

No further stringency beyond 

scenarios under consideration 

Isolate assessment of costs and NOx savings to 

stringency scenarios being analysed 

Product compliance Market driven production cut-off 

that takes effect on implementation 

date (2013 or 2017) 

Consistent with evidence following past stringency 

standards, but sensitivity tests to be applied to reflect 

alternative outcomes, in particular for 2013 changes 

requiring MS3 

Time-in-mode and 

thrust settings 

ICAO certification factors used Likely to over-estimate NOx savings from 

stringency but more work necessary before 

performance based settings can be used 

Market shares Equal market split between 

manufacturers within each seat 

category 

Simplifying assumption that avoids difficult 

assessment of market share projections for future 

years 

Technology Response 

Categories 

MS1, MS2, MS3 ICCAIA cross-reference to CAEP/6 NOx stringency 

analysis TL concept: MS1=TL1, MS2=TL2, 

MS3=TL5A 

NOx Stringency 

Scenarios 

5% to 20% from CAEP/6 Increments of 5%, when considering stringency 

proposals for small and large engines, the resulting 

number of stringency scenarios to be evaluated is 10. 

See Table 2.1 for details. 

Base Year 2006 The Campbell-Hill Aviation Group’s commercial 

airline fleet database updated to represent the 2006 

year-end fleet forms the basis for the base year. 

Time Horizon 2006-2036 FESG CAEP/8 20-year fleet forecast with a 10-year 

extension 

NOx Stringency 

Implementation Years 

2012, 2016 NOx stringency implementation takes effect from 31 

December 2012 or 31 December 2016 

Fuel Price $1.50 - $4.50 per gallon 

(average = $3.00/gallon) 

Recommendation for CAEP/8 is to use crude oil 

prices of $50-$150/bbl, with $100/bbl the midpoint. 

Multiply crude oil price by 1.25 to arrive at fuel 

price per barrel. (42 barrels per gallon) (see comment 

above about units) 

Financial discount rates 0%, 3%, 7%, 9% Use same discount rates as CAEP/6 

Non-recurring costs MS1= $1M - $15M 

MS2= $50M - $100M 

MS3= $100M - $500M 

See [CAEP-SG/20082-WP/18]25 for further 

description of the NOx technology response. Nonrecurring costs applied once per engine family 

ICCAIA – International Coordinating Council of Aerospace Industries Associations 

MS – Modification Status 

TL – Technology Level 

 

25 Ref. [CAEP-SG/20082-WP/18] “NOX Stringency Technology Response Assessment”. Working paper submitted by WG1 and WG3 at the 

second Steering Group meeting of the CAEP/8 cycle held in Seattle (United States) on September 22-26, 2008. 
 A-3 CAEP/14-IP/14 Appendix A 

Table A.2 - Assumptions for CAEP/8 NOx Stringency Economic Analysis (continued)

Modelling Item Assumptions Comments

Cost from increased 

noise trade-off for NOx 

technology response 

Incremental non-recurring for 

MS3 = $0, $10M, $100M 

[3 sensitivity runs] 

Per WG1 recommendation, NSTG to conduct a cost 

sensitivity analysis on three different non-recurring 

(E&D) scenarios as shown to the left. Applied only 

to MS3 technology response 

Incremental fuel burn MS1= 0% 

MS2= 0% 

MS3= 0% - 0.5% 

From WG3 / ICCAIA Technology Response 

assumptions. 

Incremental engine 

maintenance cost 

($/EFH) 

MS1= $0 

MS2= $0 - 2 (average = $1) 

MS3= $0 - 4 (average = $2) 

ICCAIA recommendations show to left. 

Incremental recurring 

manufacturing 

(production) costs 

MS1 = $0 

MS2 = 0-0.5% (0.25%) $ 20,000 

MS3 =0.2-0.8% (0.5%) $ 40,000 

For CAEP/8 analysis, continue to use the CAEP/6 

method for estimating recurring costs. Recurring 

engine manufacturing cost increase is due to 

complexity, material, etc. (does not include 

amortized non-recurring costs). The estimates were 

based upon the following assumptions: 

a) the combustor is 5% of the engine cost; 

b) MS1 is minor changes and testing so 

incremental recurring cost is $0 

c) MS2 and MS3 technology response increase 

combustor costs by a relatively small 

amount. 

d) the average engine price for the CAEP/8 

analysis based on review of the mid-2008 

AVITAS Engine Value Guide for new 

engine prices and applying engine cycles 

for the engines to be delivered as growth 

and replacement over the 30 year time 

horizon as weighting factors is estimated to 

be $8.6M. Multiplying this average engine 

price by the incremental production costs 

percentage increases shown to the left and 

rounding to the nearest 10,000 results is 

values equal to those used for the CAEP/6 

analysis. 

Cost for Incremental 

Spare Engine Inventory 

ICCAIA had recommended engine 

interchangeability as follows: 

 MS1 - 100% 

 MS2 - 100% 

 MS3 - 50% 

For the MS1 and MS2, where the engines are 

assumed to be 100% interchangeable with the same 

engine models being manufactured before NOx 

stringency was implemented, then no incremental 

spare engines would be required. For MS3, 50% of 

the engines receiving MS3 technology response, will 

require incremental spare engines to support the fleet 

after NOx stringency is implemented due to lack of 

commonality and interchangeability 

EFH – Engine Flight Hours 

E&D – Exploration and Development 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix A 

A-4

Table A.2 - Assumptions for CAEP/8 NOx Stringency Economic Analysis (continued)

Modelling Item Assumptions Comments 

Engine price for spare 

engines 

Average = $8.6 M 

For the 15% stringency for Large 

Engines, a weighted average price 

for engines requiring MS3 was 

estimated to be $24.3M 

For the 20% stringency for Large 

Engines, the weighted average 

price for engines requiring MS3 

was estimated to be $12M 

The average engine price for the CAEP/8 analysis 

based on review of the mid-2008 AVITAS Engine 

Value Guide for new engine prices and applying 

engine cycles for the engines to be delivered as 

growth and replacement over the 30 year time 

horizon as weighting factors is estimated to be 

$8.6M. 

A more detailed assessment was used to estimate a 

weighted average engine price to be used for spare 

engines, considering only those engines that would 

require a MS3 technology response for each 

stringency scenario. Only the 15% and 20% 

stringency scenarios required MS3 responses for 

some of the engine families.

Spare engine function Use CAEP/6 spares curve Spares curve from CAEP/6 to be used: # installed 

engines vs % spares 

The equation for estimating the number of spare 

engines required at the global fleet level is: 

number spare engines = 0.5891 * number installed 

engines ^ -0.3758 

Loss of Asset Value 

(Residual Value) 

ICCAIA recommends 

using CAEP/6 values 

MS1 = no modification 

 package 

MS2 = $250,000 per engine 

MS3 = $500,000 per engine 

Loss of Asset Value is a cost applicable to the 

production models that will not comply with NOx 

stringency being delivered before the stringency 

implementation year. Once stringency is 

implemented these same non-compliant engine 

models receive the MSx technology responses (x = 

1, 2 or 3). 

Discussion on retrofit timing – recommend we 

model retrofit incorporation at same year stringency 

takes effect 
 A-5 CAEP/14-IP/14 Appendix A 

Table A.2 - Assumptions for CAEP/8 NOx Stringency Economic Analysis (continued)

Modelling Item Assumptions Comments 

Lost revenue due to 

incremental fuel burn 

impact from MS3 

technology response. 

Aircraft payload / 

range capabilities not 

preserved. Instead, 

estimate cost of lost 

revenue 

Percent of Annual Trips 

MTOW limited 

-Twin-Aisle aircraft: 1 –19%, 

always offload cargo first (use 5%) 

-Single-Aisle aircraft: nil –2%, 

passengers offloaded as very little 

cargo on short, single aisle aircraft 

missions (use 0.5%) 

Representative distance for 

MTOW limited flights: 

 Single aisle = 2100 NM 

 Twin aisle = 5000 NM 

Revenue offload 

[For Engines on aircraft requiring 

MS3 technology responses] 

Single Aisle = -1 PAX (100kg), 

0.5% of annual trips 

 

For Twin Aisle: 

A330, 767= -500lb 

A340, 777= -1000lb 

Average = -750lb (340 kg) 

5% frequency of annual trips 

Revenue Yields at representative 

stage lengths: 

-Passenger rev. yield = 

$0.075/RPK 

-Cargo rev. yield = $0.26/RTK 

lb - pound 

NM – Nautical mile 

PAX – Passenger 

RPK – Revenue-passenger kilometre 

RTK – Revenue-tonne kilometre 

For CAEP/8, the FESG NOx stringency task group 

agreed to replace the CAEP/6 approach, which 

assumed aircraft mission and payload maintained, 

with a method to calculate the revenue loss resulting 

from an increase in 0.5% fuel burn for MS3 

technology response. This loss of revenue would be 

incurred on long-range MTOW limited missions. 

The frequency of operating at the payload / range 

limits may be a few percent of the annual utilization. 

FESG NSTG cost group surveyed airlines in order 

to assess the operational assumptions needed for this 

approach. 

Critical assumptions: 1) percent of annual utilization 

at MTOW limited range, 

 2) MTOW limited range, 3) representative yields 

Representative distance (stage length) for 

MTOW limited flights-80th percentile route 

lengths (OAG-SM)

A320 = 1155 

A330 = 3892 

A340-500=7505 

A340-600=5860 

767-300=4108 

777-200 LR=7790 

777-300 ER=5810 

Based on review of FESG traffic and fleet forecast 

and the assumptions on percent annual trips 

impacted, distance to use: 

 Single aisle = 2100 NM 

 Twin aisle = 5000 NM 

Revenue passenger yield at a 2100 NM stage length 

was derived from the IATA provided yield data for 

2007 (UBS Q-Series Global Aviation report, 

September 2008 & IATA Analysis), which provides 

a system average. The system average revenue 

passenger yield was then adjusted by the yield 

adjustment curve provided by an Industry 

representative for a distance of 2100 miles. The 

system average distance was at 1000 miles 

Cargo yields were determined from comparing 

IATA 2007 system average yields, yield data 

collected by a manufacturer from the 2008 AEA 

Star Report and data obtained from public sources 

used as inputs in the APMT-Economics model. The 

values were reasonably close. The system wide 

values were adjusted to the 5000 NM distance using 

the yield - distance adjustment curve. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix A 

A-6

Figure A.3 – NOx Stringency Economic Assessment Task Flow 

— — — — — — — —
APPENDIX B 

Figure B.1 

Cumulative Costs ($ Millions), 2009 – 2036, Combined small and large en

Str07 = Small engines [-15%, -15%], large engines [-15%, slope = 2]Str10 = Small engines [-20%, -20%], large engines [-20%, slope = 2.2]

$0

$5,000

$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000

2012 Str07 APMT-E 2016 Str07 APMT-E 2012 Str10 APMT-E 2016 Str10 APMT-E 2012 Str07 NCM 2016 Str07 NCM 2012 Str10 NCM 201

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost c. Incremental Engine Production Cost d. Annual Maintenance Cost Ince. Annual Fuel Cost Increase f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) g. Cost in Additional Spare Eng

APMT-Economics NOx Cost Model

— — — — — — — —
$20,000/to

$15,000/to

$10,000/to

$5,000/to

cost effective

$25,000/to

$30,000/tonne $35,000/tonne $40,000/tonne

NS

1-5

NS

6-7

NOx Cost Effectiveness Summary

*Assumes loss in resale value LTO NOx Reduction

(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost*

($ Million, 2009 – 2036)

$45,000/tonne $50,000/tonne $55,000/tonne $60,000/tonne Combined Engines • 0% discount rate • 2016 stringency effectivity

• Low/high cost range

Combined Engines

• 0% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost range

NOX Small Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.23 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 27 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

NOX Small Engine Large Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.23 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 27 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

Large Engine
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix C 

C-2

Figure C.2 

$-

$5,000

$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 

$20,000

$15,000/

$10,000/t

$5,000/t

cost effective

$25,000/

$30,000/tonne $35,000/tonne $40,000/tonne

NOx Cost Effectiveness Summary

*Assumes loss in resale value LTO NOx Reduction

(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost*

($ Million, 2009 – 2036)

$45,000/tonne $50,000/tonne $55,000/tonne $60,000/tonne Combined Engines • 3% discount rate • 2016 stringency effectivity

• Low/high cost range

Combined Engines

• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost range

NS

6-7

NS

8-10

NS

1-5

NOX Small Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.23 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 27 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

NOX Small Engine Large Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.23 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 27 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

Large Engine
 C-3 

Figure C.3 

$-

$5,000

$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 

$20,000

$15,000/

$10,000/t

$5,000/t

cost effective

$25,000/

$30,000/tonne

$35,000/tonne

$40,000/tonne

NOx Cost Effectiveness Summary

*Assumes loss in resale value LTO NOx Reduction

(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost*

($ Million, 2009 – 2036)

$45,000/tonne

$50,000/tonne

$55,000/tonne

$60,000/tonne Combined Engines • 7% discount rate • 2016 stringency effectivity

• Low/high cost range

Combined Engines

• 7% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost range

NS

1-5

NS

6-7

NS

8-10

NOX Small Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.23 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 27 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

NOX Small Engine Large Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.23 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 27 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

Large Engine
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix C 

C-4

Figure C.4

$-

$5,000

$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 

$20,000

$15,000/

$10,000/t

$5,000/t

cost effective

$25,000/

$30,000/tonne $35,000/tonne

NOx Cost Effectiveness Summary

*Assumes loss in resale value LTO NOx Reduction

(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost*

($ Million, 2009 – 2036)

$45,000/tonne $50,000/tonne $55,000/tonne $60,000/tonne Combined Engines • 9% discount rate • 2016 stringency effectivity

• Low/high cost range

Combined Engines

• 9% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost range

$40,000/tonne

NS

1-5

NS

6-7

NS

8-10

NOX Small Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.2

3 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 2

7 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

NOX Small Engine Large Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.2

3 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 2

7 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

Large Engine
 C-5 

Figure C.5

$-

$5,000

$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 

$20,000

$15,000/

$10,000/t

$5,000/t

cost effective

$25,000/

$30,000/tonne

$35,000/tonne

$40,000/tonne

NOx Cost Effectiveness Summary

*Assumes loss in resale value LTO NOx Reduction

(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost*

($ Million, 2009 – 2036)

$45,000/tonne

$50,000/tonne

$55,000/tonne

$60,000/tonne Combined Engines • 3% discount rate • 2016 stringency effectivity

• Low/high cost range

Combined Engines

• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost range

NS

6-7

NS

8-10

No Loss in Resale Value

NS

1-5

NOX Small Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.2

3 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 2

7 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

NOX Small Engine Large Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.2

3 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 2

7 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

Large Engine
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix C 

C-6

Figure C.6

$-

$5,000

$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 

$20,000

$15,000/

$10,000/t

$5,000/t

cost effective

$25,000/

$30,000/tonne $35,000/tonne $40,000/tonne

NOx Cost Effectiveness Summary

*Assumes loss in resale value LTO NOx Reduction

(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost*

($ Million, 2009 – 2036)

$45,000/tonne $50,000/tonne $55,000/tonne $60,000/tonne Combined Engines • 3% discount rate • 2012 stringency effectivity

• Low/high cost range

Combined Engines

• 3% discount rate• 2012 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost range

NS

6-7

NS

8-10

NS

1-5

2012 stringency effectivity

NOX Small Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.2

3 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 2

7 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

NOX Small Engine Large Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.2

3 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 2

7 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

Large Engine
 C-7 

Figure C.7

$-

$5,000

$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 

$20,000

$15,000/

$10,000/t

$5,000/t

cost effective

$25,000/

$30,000/tonne

$35,000/tonne

$40,000/tonne

NOx Cost Effectiveness Summary

*Assumes loss in resale value LTO NOx Reduction

(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost*

($ Million, 2009 – 2036)

$45,000/tonne

$50,000/tonne

$55,000/tonne

$60,000/tonne Large Engines • 3% discount rate • 2016 stringency effectivity

• Low/high cost range

Large Engines

• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost range

NS

6-7

NS

8-10

NS

1-5

NOX Small Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.2

3 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 2

7 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

NOX Small Engine Large Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.2

3 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 2

7 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

Large Engine
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix C 

C-8

Figure C.8 

$-

$100$200$300$400$500

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 

$40,000

$30,000

$20,000

$10,000

cost effectiv

$50,000

$60,000/tonne $70,000/tonne $80,000/tonne

NOx Cost Effectiveness Summary

*Assumes loss in resale value LTO NOx Reduction

(Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost*

($ Million, 2009 – 2036)

Small Engines

• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost range

Small Engines

• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost range

NS

2,3

NS

9

NS

1,4,6

NS

8

NS

10

NS

5,7

NOX Small Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.23 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 27 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

NOX Small Engine Large Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.23 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 27 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

Large Engine
 C-9 

Figure C.9 

$-

$5,000

$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000

NS05

NS07_MS3

NS07_MS3+FB

NS07_MS3+FB+N

NS10_MS3

NS10_MS3+FB

NS10_M

NOx Cost Effectiveness Summary

Select NOx Stringencies

Cost Effectiveness

($ Per Tonne LTO NOx Reduction)

Combined Engines

• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost range

Combined Engines

• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost range

Better

FB = effect of 0.5% fuel burn penalty w

FB+N = additional noise mitigat

NOX Small Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.23 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 27 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

NOX Small Engine Large Engine

Stringency

Case # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)

1 -5% / -5% -5% 22 -10% / -10% -10% 2.23 -10% / -10% -10% 24 -5% / -15% -15% 2.25 -15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15% -15% 27 -15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2

Large Engine

— — — — — — — —
(86 pages) 

 CAEP.8.IP.014.3.3.ver.en.doc

 APPENDIX D 

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon 

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 1 2 41 42 3 4 43 44 5 6 45 46 

NOx Stringency Option NS01 NS01 NS01 NS01 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS03 NS03 NS03 NS03

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High 

MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 

D. Summary of Cost Impacts 

D-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $) 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $15 $1 $15 $51 $115 $51 $115 $51 $115 $51 $115 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $200 $400 $200 $400 $200 $400 $200 $400 $251 $515 $251 $515 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $7 $7 $6 $6 $7 $7 $6 $6 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $12 $12 $10 $10 $12 $12 $10 $10 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $18 $18 $16 $16 $18 $18 $16 $16 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $412 $412 $369 $369 $412 $412 $369 $369 $433 $433 $388 $388 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $785 $785 $599 $599 $785 $785 $599 $599 $828 $828 $631 $631 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $1,198 $1,198 $967 $967 $1,198 $1,198 $967 $967 $1,262 $1,262 $1,019 $1,019 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $11 $11 $16 $16 $11 $11 $16 $16 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $949 $949 $1,525 $1,525 $949 $949 $1,525 $1,525 $988 $988 $1,586 $1,586 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $1 $15 $1 $15 $80 $144 $82 $146 $80 $144 $82 $146 

p. Large Engines $2,347 $2,547 $2,692 $2,892 $2,347 $2,547 $2,692 $2,892 $2,501 $2,765 $2,856 $3,120 

GRAND TOTAL $2,348 $2,562 $2,693 $2,907 $2,427 $2,691 $2,774 $3,038 $2,581 $2,909 $2,938 $3,266 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - - - - - - - - - - - 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - - - - - - - - - - - 

D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $14 $1 $12 $49 $109 $43 $97 $49 $109 $43 $97 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $191 $383 $170 $340 $191 $383 $170 $340 $240 $492 $213 $437 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $6 $6 $5 $5 $6 $6 $5 $5 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $11 $11 $9 $9 $11 $11 $9 $9 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $260 $260 $221 $221 $260 $260 $221 $221 $274 $274 $233 $233 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $445 $445 $327 $327 $445 $445 $327 $327 $469 $469 $345 $345 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $705 $705 $548 $548 $705 $705 $548 $548 $743 $743 $577 $577 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $10 $10 $12 $12 $10 $10 $12 $12 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $843 $843 $1,204 $1,204 $843 $843 $1,204 $1,204 $878 $878 $1,252 $1,252 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $1 $14 $1 $12 $69 $130 $65 $119 $69 $130 $65 $119 

p. Large Engines $1,739 $1,931 $1,922 $2,092 $1,739 $1,931 $1,922 $2,092 $1,861 $2,113 $2,043 $2,267 

GRAND TOTAL $1,740 $1,945 $1,922 $2,104 $1,808 $2,061 $1,986 $2,210 $1,930 $2,242 $2,107 $2,385 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - - - - - - - - - - - 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - - - - - - - - - - - 

CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix D
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix D 

D-2

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon 

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates 

Model Run 1 2 41 42 3 4 43 44 5 6 45 46 

NOx Stringency Option NS01 NS01 NS01 NS01 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS03 NS03 NS03 NS03

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High 

MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

D-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $9 $46 $103 $35 $78 $46 $103 $35 $78 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $181 $362 $138 $276 $181 $362 $138 $276 $227 $465 $173 $355 

Recurring 

Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $3 $2 $2 $3 $3 $2 $2 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $6 $6 $4 $4 $6 $6 $4 $4 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $152 $152 $119 $119 $152 $152 $119 $119 $160 $160 $126 $126 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $223 $223 $155 $155 $223 $223 $155 $155 $236 $236 $163 $163 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $376 $376 $274 $274 $376 $376 $274 $274 $396 $396 $289 $289 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $8 $8 $9 $9 $8 $8 $9 $9 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $724 $724 $887 $887 $724 $724 $887 $887 $754 $754 $923 $923 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $9 $60 $117 $49 $92 $60 $117 $49 $92 

p. Large Engines $1,281 $1,462 $1,300 $1,438 $1,281 $1,462 $1,300 $1,438 $1,377 $1,615 $1,385 $1,567 

GRAND TOTAL $1,282 $1,474 $1,300 $1,447 $1,341 $1,579 $1,348 $1,530 $1,437 $1,732 $1,434 $1,659 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - - - - - - - - - - - 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - - - - - - - - - - -

D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $8 $45 $100 $32 $71 $45 $100 $32 $71 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $177 $353 $125 $250 $177 $353 $125 $250 $221 $453 $157 $321 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $4 $4 $3 $3 $4 $4 $3 $3 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $120 $120 $90 $90 $120 $120 $90 $90 $127 $127 $95 $95 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $163 $163 $109 $109 $163 $163 $109 $109 $172 $172 $115 $115 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $283 $283 $199 $199 $283 $283 $199 $199 $299 $299 $210 $210 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $672 $672 $765 $765 $672 $672 $765 $765 $700 $700 $796 $796 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $8 $57 $112 $43 $82 $57 $112 $43 $82 

p. Large Engines $1,132 $1,309 $1,089 $1,214 $1,132 $1,309 $1,089 $1,214 $1,220 $1,451 $1,162 $1,326 

GRAND TOTAL $1,133 $1,320 $1,090 $1,222 $1,189 $1,420 $1,132 $1,296 $1,277 $1,563 $1,205 $1,408 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - - - - - - - - - - - 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 D-3 CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix D 

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon 

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 7 8 47 48 9 10 49 50 

NOx Stringency Option NS04 NS04 NS04 NS04 NS05 NS05 NS05 NS05 

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016 

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High 

MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 

D. Summary of Cost Impacts 

D-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $) 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $15 $1 $15 $101 $215 $101 $215 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $252 $530 $252 $530 $252 $530 $252 $530 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $11 $11 $10 $10 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $19 $19 $16 $16 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $30 $30 $26 $26 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $433 $433 $388 $388 $433 $433 $388 $388 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $828 $828 $631 $631 $828 $828 $631 $631 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $1,262 $1,262 $1,019 $1,019 $1,262 $1,262 $1,019 $1,019 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $21 $21 $31 $31 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $988 $988 $1,586 $1,586 $988 $988 $1,586 $1,586 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $1 $15 $1 $15 $152 $266 $158 $272 

p. Large Engines $2,502 $2,780 $2,857 $3,135 $2,502 $2,780 $2,857 $3,135 

GRAND TOTAL $2,503 $2,795 $2,858 $3,150 $2,654 $3,046 $3,015 $3,407 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - - - - - - - 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - - - - - - - 

D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $14 $1 $12 $97 $205 $86 $182 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $241 $506 $214 $450 $241 $506 $214 $450 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $7 $7 $6 $6 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $11 $11 $9 $9 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $18 $18 $15 $15 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $274 $274 $233 $233 $274 $274 $233 $233 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $469 $469 $345 $345 $469 $469 $345 $345 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $743 $743 $577 $577 $743 $743 $577 $577 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $19 $19 $25 $25 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $878 $878 $1,252 $1,252 $878 $878 $1,252 $1,252 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $1 $14 $1 $12 $133 $242 $125 $222 

p. Large Engines $1,862 $2,126 $2,043 $2,279 $1,862 $2,126 $2,043 $2,279 

GRAND TOTAL $1,862 $2,140 $2,044 $2,291 $1,995 $2,368 $2,169 $2,500 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - - - - - - - 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - - - - - - - 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix D 

D-4

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon 

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 7 8 47 48 9 10 49 50 

NOx Stringency Option NS04 NS04 NS04 NS04 NS05 NS05 NS05 NS05 

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016 

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High 

MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 

D-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $9 $91 $193 $70 $148 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $228 $478 $174 $364 $228 $478 $174 $364 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $4 $4 $3 $3 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $5 $5 $4 $4 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $9 $9 $7 $7 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $160 $160 $126 $126 $160 $160 $126 $126 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $236 $236 $163 $163 $236 $236 $163 $163 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $396 $396 $289 $289 $396 $396 $289 $289 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $16 $16 $18 $18 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $754 $754 $923 $923 $754 $754 $923 $923 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $9 $117 $219 $95 $173 

p. Large Engines $1,378 $1,627 $1,386 $1,576 $1,378 $1,627 $1,386 $1,576 

GRAND TOTAL $1,379 $1,639 $1,386 $1,585 $1,495 $1,846 $1,481 $1,749 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - - - - - - - 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - - - - - - - 

D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $8 $89 $188 $63 $133 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $222 $465 $157 $329 $222 $465 $157 $329 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $3 $3 $3 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $4 $4 $3 $3 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $7 $7 $5 $5 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $127 $127 $95 $95 $127 $127 $95 $95 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $172 $172 $115 $115 $172 $172 $115 $115 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $299 $299 $210 $210 $299 $299 $210 $210 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $15 $15 $16 $16 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $700 $700 $796 $796 $700 $700 $796 $796 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $8 $111 $210 $84 $154 

p. Large Engines $1,221 $1,463 $1,163 $1,335 $1,221 $1,463 $1,163 $1,335 

GRAND TOTAL $1,221 $1,475 $1,164 $1,343 $1,332 $1,673 $1,247 $1,489 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - - - - - - - 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - - - - - - - 
 D-5 CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix D 

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon 

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 11 12 13 14 15 16 51 52 53 54 55 56 

NOx Stringency Option NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High 

MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes 

D. Summary of Cost Impacts 

D-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $) 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $451 $1,515 $451 $1,515 $471 $1,715 $451 $1,515 $451 $1,515 $471 $1,715 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $762 $762 $762 $762 $762 $762 $690 $690 $690 $690 $690 $690 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $1,551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,194 $1,194 $1,194 $1,194 $1,194 $1,194 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $3,076 $3,076 $3,076 $3,076 $0 $0 $2,403 $2,403 $2,403 $2,403 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $991 $991 $991 $991 $0 $0 $809 $809 $809 $809 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,097 $3,097 $3,097 $3,097 $3,097 $3,097 $3,719 $3,719 $3,719 $3,719 $3,719 $3,719 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $5,410 $5,410 $9,477 $9,477 $9,477 $9,477 $5,602 $5,602 $8,814 $8,814 $8,814 $8,814 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $2,716 $2,716 $2,716 $2,716 $2,716 $2,716 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 

p. Large Engines $7,529 $8,593 $11,596 $12,660 $11,616 $12,860 $8,769 $9,833 $11,981 $13,045 $12,001 $13,245 

GRAND TOTAL $7,530 $8,608 $11,597 $12,675 $11,617 $12,875 $8,770 $9,848 $11,982 $13,060 $12,002 $13,260 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 - - 801 801 801 801 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 - - 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 

D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $432 $1,449 $432 $1,449 $451 $1,641 $384 $1,288 $384 $1,288 $401 $1,458 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $480 $480 $480 $480 $480 $480 $414 $414 $414 $414 $414 $414 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $876 $876 $876 $876 $876 $876 $651 $651 $651 $651 $651 $651 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $1,733 $1,733 $1,733 $1,733 $0 $0 $1,307 $1,307 $1,307 $1,307 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $548 $548 $548 $548 $0 $0 $434 $434 $434 $434 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $2,635 $2,635 $2,635 $2,635 $2,635 $2,635 $2,819 $2,819 $2,819 $2,819 $2,819 $2,819 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $3,991 $3,991 $6,272 $6,272 $6,272 $6,272 $3,883 $3,883 $5,624 $5,624 $5,624 $5,624 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $1,481 $1,481 $1,481 $1,481 $1,481 $1,481 $2,144 $2,144 $2,144 $2,144 $2,144 $2,144 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 

p. Large Engines $5,904 $6,922 $8,185 $9,203 $8,205 $9,395 $6,411 $7,315 $8,152 $9,056 $8,169 $9,226 

GRAND TOTAL $5,905 $6,936 $8,186 $9,217 $8,205 $9,408 $6,412 $7,327 $8,152 $9,068 $8,169 $9,238 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 578 578 578 578 - - 436 436 436 436 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 - - 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix D 

D-6

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon 

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 11 12 13 14 15 16 51 52 53 54 55 56 

NOx Stringency Option NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High 

MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes 

D-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $9 $1 $9 $1 $9 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $409 $1,371 $409 $1,371 $427 $1,553 $312 $1,046 $312 $1,046 $326 $1,184 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $281 $281 $281 $281 $281 $281 $223 $223 $223 $223 $223 $223 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $439 $439 $439 $439 $439 $439 $307 $307 $307 $307 $307 $307 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $864 $864 $864 $864 $0 $0 $616 $616 $616 $616 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $267 $267 $267 $267 $0 $0 $200 $200 $200 $200 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $2,145 $2,145 $2,145 $2,145 $2,145 $2,145 $1,978 $1,978 $1,978 $1,978 $1,978 $1,978 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $2,865 $2,865 $3,995 $3,995 $3,995 $3,995 $2,508 $2,508 $3,324 $3,324 $3,324 $3,324 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $1,272 $1,272 $1,272 $1,272 $1,272 $1,272 $1,581 $1,581 $1,581 $1,581 $1,581 $1,581 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $9 $1 $9 $1 $9 

p. Large Engines $4,545 $5,508 $5,676 $6,639 $5,694 $6,820 $4,401 $5,135 $5,216 $5,951 $5,230 $6,089 

GRAND TOTAL $4,546 $5,520 $5,677 $6,651 $5,695 $6,832 $4,401 $5,145 $5,217 $5,960 $5,230 $6,098 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 288 288 288 288 - - 205 205 205 205 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 - - 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 

D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $8 $1 $8 $1 $8 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $398 $1,336 $398 $1,336 $416 $1,512 $282 $946 $282 $946 $294 $1,071 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $221 $221 $221 $221 $221 $221 $168 $168 $168 $168 $168 $168 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $320 $320 $320 $320 $320 $320 $216 $216 $216 $216 $216 $216 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $628 $628 $628 $628 $0 $0 $433 $433 $433 $433 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $191 $191 $191 $191 $0 $0 $139 $139 $139 $139 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $1,943 $1,943 $1,943 $1,943 $1,943 $1,943 $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $2,484 $2,484 $3,303 $3,303 $3,303 $3,303 $2,051 $2,051 $2,623 $2,623 $2,623 $2,623 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $1,181 $1,181 $1,181 $1,181 $1,181 $1,181 $1,363 $1,363 $1,363 $1,363 $1,363 $1,363 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $8 $1 $8 $1 $8 

p. Large Engines $4,063 $5,001 $4,883 $5,820 $4,900 $5,997 $3,696 $4,360 $4,268 $4,932 $4,280 $5,057 

GRAND TOTAL $4,064 $5,012 $4,883 $5,832 $4,901 $6,008 $3,697 $4,369 $4,268 $4,940 $4,281 $5,065 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 209 209 209 209 - - 144 144 144 144 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 - - 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 
 D-7 

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 22 Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates ($1.50) 

Model Run 17 18 19 20 21 22 57 58 59 60 61 62 81 NOx Stringency Option NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2012 MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High High MS3 Fuel Penalty 0% 0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes Yes D. Summary of Cost Impacts D-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $) Non-recurringa. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $101 $215 $101 $215 $101 $215 $101 $215 $101 $215 $101 $215 $21b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $451 $1,515 $451 $1,515 $471 $1,715 $451 $1,515 $451 $1,515 $471 $1,715 $1,71RecurringSmall Engines c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $1d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $1e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 $26 $26 $26 $26 $26 $26 $3

Large Engines h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $762 $762 $762 $762 $762 $762 $690 $690 $690 $690 $690 $690 $76i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $1,551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,194 $1,194 $1,194 $1,194 $1,194 $1,194 $1,55j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $3,076 $3,076 $3,076 $3,076 $0 $0 $2,403 $2,403 $2,403 $2,403 $1,53k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $991 $991 $991 $991 $0 $0 $809 $809 $809 $809 $99l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,122 $3,122 $3,122 $3,122 $3,122 $3,122 $3,748 $3,748 $3,748 $3,748 $3,748 $3,748 $3,12

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $5,435 $5,435 $9,502 $9,502 $9,502 $9,502 $5,631 $5,631 $8,843 $8,843 $8,843 $8,843 $7,96

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 21 21 21 21 21 21 31 31 31 31 31 31 2n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 1,667 1,667 1,667 1,667 1,667 1,667 2,716 2,716 2,716 2,716 2,716 2,716 1,66GRAND TOTAL o. Small Engines $152 $266 $152 $266 $152 $266 $158 $272 $158 $272 $158 $272 $266 p. Large Engines $7,553 $8,617 $11,620 $12,684 $11,640 $12,884 $8,798 $9,862 $12,010 $13,074 $12,030 $13,274 $11,346 

GRAND TOTAL $7,705 $8,883 $11,772 $12,950 $11,792 $13,150 $8,956 $10,134 $12,168 $13,346 $12,188 $13,546 $11,612 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 - - 801 801 801 801 1,02r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 - - 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 9.D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Non-recurring a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $97 $205 $97 $205 $97 $205 $86 $182 $86 $182 $86 $182 $20b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $432 $1,449 $432 $1,449 $451 $1,641 $384 $1,288 $384 $1,288 $401 $1,458 $1,64RecurringSmall Engines c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $1e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $1

Large Engines h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $480 $480 $480 $480 $480 $480 $414 $414 $414 $414 $414 $414 $480 i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $876 $876 $876 $876 $876 $876 $651 $651 $651 $651 $651 $651 $87j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $1,733 $1,733 $1,733 $1,733 $0 $0 $1,307 $1,307 $1,307 $1,307 $86k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $548 $548 $548 $548 $0 $0 $434 $434 $434 $434 $54l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $2,655 $2,655 $2,655 $2,655 $2,655 $2,655 $2,841 $2,841 $2,841 $2,841 $2,841 $2,841 $2,65

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,012 $4,012 $6,293 $6,293 $6,293 $6,293 $3,905 $3,905 $5,646 $5,646 $5,646 $5,646 $5,42

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 19 19 19 19 19 19 25 25 25 25 25 25 1n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 1,481 1,481 1,481 1,481 1,481 1,481 2,144 2,144 2,144 2,144 2,144 2,144 1,48GRAND TOTAL o. Small Engines $133 $242 $133 $242 $133 $242 $125 $222 $125 $222 $125 $222 $242 p. Large Engines $5,925 $6,943 $8,206 $9,224 $8,225 $9,415 $6,433 $7,337 $8,174 $9,078 $8,191 $9,248 $8,549 

GRAND TOTAL $6,058 $7,185 $8,339 $9,466 $8,358 $9,657 $6,558 $7,559 $8,299 $9,300 $8,316 $9,470 $8,791 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 578 578 578 578 - - 436 436 436 436 57r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 - - 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 5.
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix D 

D-8

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 22 Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates ($1.50) 

Model Run 17 18 19 20 21 22 57 58 59 60 61 62 81 NOx Stringency Option NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2012 MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High High MS3 Fuel Penalty 0% 0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes Yes D-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% Non-recurring a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $91 $193 $91 $193 $91 $193 $70 $148 $70 $148 $70 $148 $193 b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $409 $1,371 $409 $1,371 $427 $1,553 $312 $1,046 $312 $1,046 $326 $1,184 $1,553 Recurring Small Engines c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $4 d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $5 e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $9 

Large Engines h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $281 $281 $281 $281 $281 $281 $223 $223 $223 $223 $223 $223 $281 i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $439 $439 $439 $439 $439 $439 $307 $307 $307 $307 $307 $307 $439 j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $864 $864 $864 $864 $0 $0 $616 $616 $616 $616 $432 k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $267 $267 $267 $267 $0 $0 $200 $200 $200 $200 $267 l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $2,162 $2,162 $2,162 $2,162 $2,162 $2,162 $1,993 $1,993 $1,993 $1,993 $1,993 $1,993 $2,162 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $2,881 $2,881 $4,012 $4,012 $4,012 $4,012 $2,524 $2,524 $3,339 $3,339 $3,339 $3,339 $3,580 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 16 16 16 16 16 16 18 18 18 18 18 18 16 n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 1,272 1,272 1,272 1,272 1,272 1,272 1,581 1,581 1,581 1,581 1,581 1,581 1,272 GRAND TOTAL o. Small Engines $117 $219 $117 $219 $117 $219 $95 $173 $95 $173 $95 $173 $219 p. Large Engines $4,562 $5,525 $5,693 $6,655 $5,711 $6,837 $4,416 $5,151 $5,231 $5,966 $5,245 $6,104 $6,405 

GRAND TOTAL $4,679 $5,744 $5,810 $6,875 $5,828 $7,056 $4,512 $5,324 $5,327 $6,139 $5,341 $6,277 $6,624 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 288 288 288 288 - - 205 205 205 205 288 r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 - - 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.8 D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% Non-recurring a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $89 $188 $89 $188 $89 $188 $63 $133 $63 $133 $63 $133 $188 b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $398 $1,336 $398 $1,336 $416 $1,512 $282 $946 $282 $946 $294 $1,071 $1,512 Recurring Small Engines c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $4 e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $7 

Large Engines h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $221 $221 $221 $221 $221 $221 $168 $168 $168 $168 $168 $168 $221 i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $320 $320 $320 $320 $320 $320 $216 $216 $216 $216 $216 $216 $320 j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $628 $628 $628 $628 $0 $0 $433 $433 $433 $433 $314 k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $191 $191 $191 $191 $0 $0 $139 $139 $139 $139 $191 l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $1,958 $1,958 $1,958 $1,958 $1,958 $1,958 $1,680 $1,680 $1,680 $1,680 $1,680 $1,680 $1,958 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $2,499 $2,499 $3,319 $3,319 $3,319 $3,319 $2,064 $2,064 $2,636 $2,636 $2,636 $2,636 $3,005 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 1,181 1,181 1,181 1,181 1,181 1,181 1,363 1,363 1,363 1,363 1,363 1,363 1,181 GRAND TOTAL o. Small Engines $111 $210 $111 $210 $111 $210 $84 $154 $84 $154 $84 $154 $210 p. Large Engines $4,078 $5,016 $4,898 $5,836 $4,915 $6,012 $3,709 $4,373 $4,281 $4,945 $4,293 $5,070 $5,698 

GRAND TOTAL $4,189 $5,226 $5,009 $6,046 $5,027 $6,222 $3,793 $4,528 $4,365 $5,099 $4,377 $5,224 $5,908 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 209 209 209 209 - - 144 144 144 144 209 r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 - - 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.0 
 CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix D 

D-9

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon 

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 23 24 25 26 27 28 63 64 65 66 67 68 

NOx Stringency Option NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High 

MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes 

D. Summary of Cost Impacts 

D-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $) 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $53 $145 $53 $145 $53 $145 $53 $145 $53 $145 $53 $145 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $802 $3,730 $802 $3,730 $872 $4,430 $802 $3,730 $802 $3,730 $872 $4,430 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $12,901 $12,901 $12,901 $12,901 $0 $0 $9,981 $9,981 $9,981 $9,981 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $4,001 $4,001 $4,001 $4,001 $0 $0 $3,207 $3,207 $3,207 $3,207 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $5,069 $5,069 $5,069 $5,069 $5,069 $5,069 $5,968 $5,968 $5,968 $5,968 $5,968 $5,968 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $9,086 $9,086 $25,988 $25,988 $25,988 $25,988 $9,234 $9,234 $22,422 $22,422 $22,422 $22,422 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 11 11 11 11 11 11 16 16 16 16 16 16 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $82 $174 $82 $174 $82 $174 $84 $176 $84 $176 $84 $176 

p. Large Engines $12,787 $15,715 $29,690 $32,618 $29,760 $33,318 $14,781 $17,709 $27,969 $30,897 $28,039 $31,597 

GRAND TOTAL $12,869 $15,889 $29,772 $32,792 $29,842 $33,492 $14,865 $17,885 $28,053 $31,073 $28,123 $31,773 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 4,300 4,300 4,300 4,300 - - 3,327 3,327 3,327 3,327 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 - - 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 

D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $51 $137 $51 $137 $51 $137 $45 $122 $45 $122 $45 $122 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $768 $3,569 $768 $3,569 $835 $4,239 $682 $3,171 $682 $3,171 $741 $3,766 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $846 $846 $846 $846 $846 $846 $725 $725 $725 $725 $725 $725 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $7,283 $7,283 $7,283 $7,283 $0 $0 $5,438 $5,438 $5,438 $5,438 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $2,224 $2,224 $2,224 $2,224 $0 $0 $1,723 $1,723 $1,723 $1,723 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $4,328 $4,328 $4,328 $4,328 $4,328 $4,328 $4,538 $4,538 $4,538 $4,538 $4,538 $4,538 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $6,685 $6,685 $16,192 $16,192 $16,192 $16,192 $6,384 $6,384 $13,544 $13,544 $13,544 $13,544 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $71 $157 $71 $157 $71 $157 $66 $143 $66 $143 $66 $143 

p. Large Engines $10,029 $12,831 $19,536 $22,337 $19,603 $23,007 $10,811 $13,300 $17,972 $20,461 $18,032 $21,056 

GRAND TOTAL $10,100 $12,988 $19,607 $22,495 $19,674 $23,165 $10,878 $13,443 $18,038 $20,604 $18,098 $21,199 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 2,428 2,428 2,428 2,428 - - 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 - - 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix D 

D-10

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon 

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 23 24 25 26 27 28 63 64 65 66 67 68 

NOx Stringency Option NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High 

MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes 

D-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $48 $127 $48 $127 $48 $127 $36 $97 $36 $97 $36 $97 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $726 $3,377 $726 $3,377 $790 $4,011 $554 $2,576 $554 $2,576 $603 $3,060 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $495 $495 $495 $495 $495 $495 $391 $391 $391 $391 $391 $391 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $758 $758 $758 $758 $758 $758 $529 $529 $529 $529 $529 $529 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $3,644 $3,644 $3,644 $3,644 $0 $0 $2,567 $2,567 $2,567 $2,567 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $1,088 $1,088 $1,088 $1,088 $0 $0 $796 $796 $796 $796 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,539 $3,539 $3,539 $3,539 $3,539 $3,539 $3,196 $3,196 $3,196 $3,196 $3,196 $3,196 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,792 $4,792 $9,523 $9,523 $9,523 $9,523 $4,116 $4,116 $7,478 $7,478 $7,478 $7,478 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $62 $141 $62 $141 $62 $141 $50 $111 $50 $111 $50 $111 

p. Large Engines $7,730 $10,381 $12,462 $15,112 $12,525 $15,747 $7,432 $9,454 $10,794 $12,816 $10,843 $13,300 

GRAND TOTAL $7,792 $10,522 $12,524 $15,254 $12,587 $15,888 $7,482 $9,565 $10,844 $12,927 $10,893 $13,411 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 - - 856 856 856 856 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 - - 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 

D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $46 $123 $46 $123 $46 $123 $33 $87 $33 $87 $33 $87 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $708 $3,290 $708 $3,290 $770 $3,908 $501 $2,330 $501 $2,330 $545 $2,768 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $294 $294 $294 $294 $294 $294 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $552 $552 $552 $552 $552 $552 $373 $373 $373 $373 $373 $373 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $0 $0 $1,806 $1,806 $1,806 $1,806 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $783 $783 $783 $783 $0 $0 $554 $554 $554 $554 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,213 $3,213 $3,213 $3,213 $3,213 $3,213 $2,698 $2,698 $2,698 $2,698 $2,698 $2,698 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,155 $4,155 $7,591 $7,591 $7,591 $7,591 $3,365 $3,365 $5,725 $5,725 $5,725 $5,725 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $58 $135 $58 $135 $58 $135 $44 $98 $44 $98 $44 $98 

p. Large Engines $6,917 $9,499 $10,353 $12,935 $10,415 $13,553 $6,248 $8,077 $8,608 $10,437 $8,651 $10,874 

GRAND TOTAL $6,975 $9,634 $10,411 $13,070 $10,473 $13,688 $6,292 $8,175 $8,652 $10,535 $8,695 $10,973 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 884 884 884 884 - - 602 602 602 602 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 - - 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 
 CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix D 

D-11

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon 

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 29 30 31 32 33 34 69 70 71 72 73 74 

NOx Stringency Option NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High 

MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes 

D. Summary of Cost Impacts 

D-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $) 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $201 $415 $201 $415 $201 $415 $201 $415 $201 $415 $201 $415 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $802 $3,730 $802 $3,730 $872 $4,430 $802 $3,730 $802 $3,730 $872 $4,430 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $23 $23 $23 $23 $23 $23 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $39 $39 $39 $39 $39 $39 $32 $32 $32 $32 $32 $32 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $62 $62 $62 $62 $62 $62 $53 $53 $53 $53 $53 $53 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $12,901 $12,901 $12,901 $12,901 $0 $0 $9,981 $9,981 $9,981 $9,981 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $4,001 $4,001 $4,001 $4,001 $0 $0 $3,207 $3,207 $3,207 $3,207 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $5,071 $5,071 $5,071 $5,071 $5,071 $5,071 $5,970 $5,970 $5,970 $5,970 $5,970 $5,970 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $9,088 $9,088 $25,990 $25,990 $25,990 $25,990 $9,236 $9,236 $22,424 $22,424 $22,424 $22,424 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 43 43 43 43 43 43 63 63 63 63 63 63 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $305 $519 $305 $519 $305 $519 $317 $531 $317 $531 $317 $531 

p. Large Engines $12,789 $15,717 $29,691 $32,619 $29,761 $33,319 $14,783 $17,711 $27,971 $30,899 $28,041 $31,599 

GRAND TOTAL $13,094 $16,236 $29,997 $33,139 $30,067 $33,839 $15,100 $18,242 $28,288 $31,430 $28,358 $32,130 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 4,300 4,300 4,300 4,300 - - 3,327 3,327 3,327 3,327 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 - - 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 

D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $192 $397 $192 $397 $192 $397 $171 $352 $171 $352 $171 $352 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $768 $3,569 $768 $3,569 $835 $4,239 $682 $3,171 $682 $3,171 $741 $3,766 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $36 $36 $36 $36 $36 $36 $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $846 $846 $846 $846 $846 $846 $725 $725 $725 $725 $725 $725 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $7,283 $7,283 $7,283 $7,283 $0 $0 $5,438 $5,438 $5,438 $5,438 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $2,224 $2,224 $2,224 $2,224 $0 $0 $1,723 $1,723 $1,723 $1,723 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $4,329 $4,329 $4,329 $4,329 $4,329 $4,329 $4,540 $4,540 $4,540 $4,540 $4,540 $4,540 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $6,687 $6,687 $16,194 $16,194 $16,194 $16,194 $6,385 $6,385 $13,546 $13,546 $13,546 $13,546 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 38 38 38 38 38 38 50 50 50 50 50 50 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $266 $471 $266 $471 $266 $471 $251 $432 $251 $432 $251 $432 

p. Large Engines $10,031 $12,832 $19,537 $22,339 $19,604 $23,009 $10,813 $13,302 $17,974 $20,463 $18,033 $21,058 

GRAND TOTAL $10,297 $13,303 $19,804 $22,809 $19,871 $23,479 $11,064 $13,734 $18,224 $20,895 $18,284 $21,490 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 2,428 2,428 2,428 2,428 - - 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 - - 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix D 

D-12

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon 

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 29 30 31 32 33 34 69 70 71 72 73 74 

NOx Stringency Option NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High 

MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes 

D-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $182 $375 $182 $375 $182 $375 $139 $286 $139 $286 $139 $286 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $726 $3,377 $726 $3,377 $790 $4,011 $554 $2,576 $554 $2,576 $603 $3,060 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $495 $495 $495 $495 $495 $495 $391 $391 $391 $391 $391 $391 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $758 $758 $758 $758 $758 $758 $529 $529 $529 $529 $529 $529 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $3,644 $3,644 $3,644 $3,644 $0 $0 $2,567 $2,567 $2,567 $2,567 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $1,088 $1,088 $1,088 $1,088 $0 $0 $796 $796 $796 $796 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,540 $3,540 $3,540 $3,540 $3,540 $3,540 $3,197 $3,197 $3,197 $3,197 $3,197 $3,197 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,793 $4,793 $9,524 $9,524 $9,524 $9,524 $4,117 $4,117 $7,480 $7,480 $7,480 $7,480 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 33 33 33 33 33 33 37 37 37 37 37 37 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $234 $426 $234 $426 $234 $426 $191 $338 $191 $338 $191 $338 

p. Large Engines $7,731 $10,382 $12,463 $15,113 $12,526 $15,748 $7,433 $9,455 $10,795 $12,818 $10,844 $13,301 

GRAND TOTAL $7,965 $10,808 $12,697 $15,540 $12,760 $16,174 $7,624 $9,793 $10,986 $13,155 $11,034 $13,639 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 - - 856 856 856 856 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 - - 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 

D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 

Non-recurring 

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $177 $365 $177 $365 $177 $365 $126 $258 $126 $258 $126 $258 

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $708 $3,290 $708 $3,290 $770 $3,908 $501 $2,330 $501 $2,330 $545 $2,768 

Recurring 

Small Engines 

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 

Large Engines 

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $294 $294 $294 $294 $294 $294 

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $552 $552 $552 $552 $552 $552 $373 $373 $373 $373 $373 $373 

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $0 $0 $1,806 $1,806 $1,806 $1,806 

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $783 $783 $783 $783 $0 $0 $554 $554 $554 $554 

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,214 $3,214 $3,214 $3,214 $3,214 $3,214 $2,699 $2,699 $2,699 $2,699 $2,699 $2,699 

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,156 $4,156 $7,592 $7,592 $7,592 $7,592 $3,366 $3,366 $5,726 $5,726 $5,726 $5,726 

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 32 32 32 32 32 

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381 

GRAND TOTAL 

o. Small Engines $222 $409 $222 $409 $222 $409 $168 $301 $168 $301 $168 $301 

p. Large Engines $6,918 $9,500 $10,354 $12,936 $10,416 $13,554 $6,248 $8,077 $8,608 $10,438 $8,652 $10,875 

GRAND TOTAL $7,140 $9,909 $10,576 $13,345 $10,638 $13,963 $6,417 $8,378 $8,777 $10,738 $8,820 $11,176 

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 884 884 884 884 - - 602 602 602 602 

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 - - 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 
D-13

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 40 Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates ($4.50

Model Run 35 36 37 38 39 40 75 76 77 78 78 80 85 NOx Stringency Option NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2012 MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High High MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes Yes D. Summary of Cost Impacts D-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $) Non-recurringa. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $202 $430 $202 $430 $202 $430 $202 $430 $202 $430 $202 $430 $4b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $802 $3,730 $802 $3,730 $872 $4,430 $802 $3,730 $802 $3,730 $872 $4,430 $4,4RecurringSmall Engines c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $23 $23 $23 $23 $23 $23 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $39 $39 $39 $39 $39 $39 $32 $32 $32 $32 $32 $32 $e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $62 $62 $62 $62 $62 $62 $53 $53 $53 $53 $53 $53 $

Large Engines h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,3i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,6j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $12,901 $12,901 $12,901 $12,901 $0 $0 $9,981 $9,981 $9,981 $9,981 $6,4k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $4,001 $4,001 $4,001 $4,001 $0 $0 $3,207 $3,207 $3,207 $3,207 $4,0l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $5,075 $5,075 $5,075 $5,075 $5,075 $5,075 $5,976 $5,976 $5,976 $5,976 $5,976 $5,976 $5,0

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $9,092 $9,092 $25,995 $25,995 $25,995 $25,995 $9,242 $9,242 $22,430 $22,430 $22,430 $22,430 $19,5

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 43 43 43 43 43 43 63 63 63 63 63 63 n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 2,9GRAND TOTAL o. Small Engines $306 $534 $306 $534 $306 $534 $318 $546 $318 $546 $318 $546 $53p. Large Engines $12,794 $15,722 $29,696 $32,624 $29,766 $33,324 $14,789 $17,717 $27,977 $30,905 $28,047 $31,605 $26,87

GRAND TOTAL $13,100 $16,256 $30,002 $33,158 $30,072 $33,858 $15,107 $18,263 $28,295 $31,451 $28,365 $32,151 $27,40

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 4,300 4,300 4,300 4,300 - - 3,327 3,327 3,327 3,327 4,3r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 - - 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 41D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3Non-recurring a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $193 $410 $193 $410 $193 $410 $172 $365 $172 $365 $172 $365 $4b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $768 $3,569 $768 $3,569 $835 $4,239 $682 $3,171 $682 $3,171 $741 $3,766 $4,2RecurringSmall Engines c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $36 $36 $36 $36 $36 $36 $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 $

Large Engines h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $846 $846 $846 $846 $846 $846 $725 $725 $725 $725 $725 $725 $8i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,5j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $7,283 $7,283 $7,283 $7,283 $0 $0 $5,438 $5,438 $5,438 $5,438 $3,6k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $2,224 $2,224 $2,224 $2,224 $0 $0 $1,723 $1,723 $1,723 $1,723 $2,2l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $4,333 $4,333 $4,333 $4,333 $4,333 $4,333 $4,544 $4,544 $4,544 $4,544 $4,544 $4,544 $4,3

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $6,691 $6,691 $16,198 $16,198 $16,198 $16,198 $6,390 $6,390 $13,551 $13,551 $13,551 $13,551 $12,5

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 38 38 38 38 38 38 50 50 50 50 50 50 n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 2,5GRAND TOTAL o. Small Engines $267 $484 $267 $484 $267 $484 $251 $444 $251 $444 $251 $444 $48p. Large Engines $10,035 $12,836 $19,541 $22,343 $19,608 $23,013 $10,818 $13,307 $17,978 $20,467 $18,038 $21,063 $19,37

GRAND TOTAL $10,302 $13,320 $19,809 $22,827 $19,876 $23,497 $11,069 $13,751 $18,230 $20,912 $18,289 $21,507 $19,85

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 2,428 2,428 2,428 2,428 - - 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 2,4r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 - - 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 23
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix D 

D-14

NOX COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOX STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars) 40 Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates ($4.50

Model Run 35 36 37 38 39 40 75 76 77 78 79 80 85 NOx Stringency Option NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2012 MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High High MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes Yes D-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7Non-recurring a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $183 $387 $183 $387 $183 $387 $139 $295 $139 $295 $139 $295 $3b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $726 $3,377 $726 $3,377 $790 $4,011 $554 $2,576 $554 $2,576 $603 $3,060 $4,0Recurring Small Engines c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $

Large Engines h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $495 $495 $495 $495 $495 $495 $391 $391 $391 $391 $391 $391 $4i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $758 $758 $758 $758 $758 $758 $529 $529 $529 $529 $529 $529 $7j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $3,644 $3,644 $3,644 $3,644 $0 $0 $2,567 $2,567 $2,567 $2,567 $1,8k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $1,088 $1,088 $1,088 $1,088 $0 $0 $796 $796 $796 $796 $1,0l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,544 $3,544 $3,544 $3,544 $3,544 $3,544 $3,200 $3,200 $3,200 $3,200 $3,200 $3,200 $3,5

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,796 $4,796 $9,528 $9,528 $9,528 $9,528 $4,121 $4,121 $7,483 $7,483 $7,483 $7,483 $7,7

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 33 33 33 33 33 33 37 37 37 37 37 37 n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,2GRAND TOTAL o. Small Engines $235 $439 $235 $439 $235 $439 $191 $347 $191 $347 $191 $347 $4p. Large Engines $7,735 $10,385 $12,466 $15,117 $12,530 $15,751 $7,436 $9,458 $10,799 $12,821 $10,847 $13,305 $13,9

GRAND TOTAL $7,969 $10,824 $12,701 $15,555 $12,764 $16,190 $7,628 $9,805 $10,990 $13,168 $11,038 $13,652 $14,3

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 - - 856 856 856 856 1,2r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 - - 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 1D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9Non-recurring a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $178 $376 $178 $376 $178 $376 $126 $267 $126 $267 $126 $267 $3b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $708 $3,290 $708 $3,290 $770 $3,908 $501 $2,330 $501 $2,330 $545 $2,768 $3,9Recurring Small Engines c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $

Large Engines h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $294 $294 $294 $294 $294 $294 $3i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $552 $552 $552 $552 $552 $552 $373 $373 $373 $373 $373 $373 $5j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $0 $0 $1,806 $1,806 $1,806 $1,806 $1,3k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $783 $783 $783 $783 $0 $0 $554 $554 $554 $554 $7l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,217 $3,217 $3,217 $3,217 $3,217 $3,217 $2,701 $2,701 $2,701 $2,701 $2,701 $2,701 $3,2

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,159 $4,159 $7,595 $7,595 $7,595 $7,595 $3,368 $3,368 $5,728 $5,728 $5,728 $5,728 $6,2

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 32 32 32 32 32 n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,0GRAND TOTAL o. Small Engines $223 $421 $223 $421 $223 $421 $169 $309 $169 $309 $169 $309 $4p. Large Engines $6,921 $9,503 $10,357 $12,939 $10,419 $13,557 $6,251 $8,080 $8,611 $10,440 $8,655 $10,878 $12,2

GRAND TOTAL $7,144 $9,924 $10,580 $13,360 $10,641 $13,978 $6,420 $8,389 $8,780 $10,749 $8,824 $11,187 $12,6

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 884 884 884 884 - - 602 602 602 602 8r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 - - 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 8

— — — — — — — —
 

APPENDIX E 

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency Analysis – Review of Benefits

Global Fleet LTO NOX Results from MODTF

Small Engines Units = Mega tonnes (Mt)ICAO Default TIM - NOx 2012 Stringency Implementation 2016 Stringency Im

Baseline NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10 NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 

 2006 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0.02924 0. 2007 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0 2008 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0 2009 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0 2010 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0 2011 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0 2012 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0. 2013 0.03609 0.03608 0.03608 0.03608 0.03608 0.03607 0.03608 0.03607 0.03605 0.03604 0.03604 0.03609 0.03609 0.03609 0.03609 0.03609 0 2014 0.03708 0.03707 0.03706 0.03706 0.03707 0.03705 0.03707 0.03705 0.03701 0.03700 0.03699 0.03708 0.03708 0.03708 0.03708 0.03708 0 2015 0.03807 0.03806 0.03805 0.03805 0.03806 0.03804 0.03806 0.03804 0.03797 0.03795 0.03794 0.03807 0.03807 0.03807 0.03807 0.03807 0 2016 0.03907 0.03904 0.03903 0.03903 0.03904 0.03902 0.03904 0.03902 0.03893 0.03890 0.03889 0.03907 0.03907 0.03907 0.03907 0.03907 0. 2017 0.04051 0.04047 0.04045 0.04045 0.04047 0.04043 0.04047 0.04043 0.04033 0.04028 0.04027 0.04050 0.04049 0.04049 0.04050 0.04049 0 2018 0.04195 0.04190 0.04187 0.04187 0.04190 0.04185 0.04190 0.04185 0.04173 0.04167 0.04165 0.04192 0.04191 0.04191 0.04192 0.04190 0 2019 0.04339 0.04333 0.04329 0.04329 0.04333 0.04327 0.04333 0.04327 0.04313 0.04305 0.04304 0.04335 0.04333 0.04333 0.04335 0.04332 0 2020 0.04483 0.04475 0.04472 0.04472 0.04475 0.04468 0.04475 0.04468 0.04452 0.04444 0.04442 0.04478 0.04475 0.04475 0.04478 0.04473 0 2021 0.04627 0.04618 0.04614 0.04614 0.04618 0.04610 0.04618 0.04610 0.04592 0.04582 0.04580 0.04621 0.04618 0.04618 0.04621 0.04615 0 2022 0.04771 0.04761 0.04756 0.04756 0.04761 0.04751 0.04761 0.04751 0.04732 0.04721 0.04718 0.04764 0.04760 0.04760 0.04764 0.04756 0 2023 0.04914 0.04904 0.04898 0.04898 0.04904 0.04893 0.04904 0.04893 0.04872 0.04859 0.04856 0.04906 0.04902 0.04902 0.04906 0.04898 0 2024 0.05058 0.05047 0.05040 0.05040 0.05047 0.05034 0.05047 0.05034 0.05012 0.04998 0.04994 0.05049 0.05044 0.05044 0.05049 0.05039 0 2025 0.05202 0.05189 0.05182 0.05182 0.05189 0.05176 0.05189 0.05176 0.05152 0.05136 0.05132 0.05192 0.05186 0.05186 0.05192 0.05181 0 2026 0.05346 0.05332 0.05324 0.05324 0.05332 0.05318 0.05332 0.05318 0.05292 0.05275 0.05270 0.05335 0.05328 0.05328 0.05335 0.05323 0. 2027 0.05556 0.05540 0.05531 0.05531 0.05540 0.05524 0.05540 0.05524 0.05496 0.05477 0.05473 0.05542 0.05535 0.05535 0.05542 0.05529 0 2028 0.05765 0.05748 0.05738 0.05738 0.05748 0.05730 0.05748 0.05730 0.05700 0.05680 0.05675 0.05750 0.05742 0.05742 0.05750 0.05735 0 2029 0.05975 0.05956 0.05946 0.05946 0.05956 0.05937 0.05956 0.05937 0.05905 0.05882 0.05877 0.05958 0.05949 0.05949 0.05958 0.05942 0 2030 0.06184 0.06164 0.06153 0.06153 0.06164 0.06143 0.06164 0.06143 0.06109 0.06085 0.06079 0.06166 0.06156 0.06156 0.06166 0.06148 0 2031 0.06393 0.06372 0.06360 0.06360 0.06372 0.06350 0.06372 0.06350 0.06313 0.06287 0.06281 0.06374 0.06364 0.06364 0.06374 0.06355 0 2032 0.06603 0.06580 0.06567 0.06567 0.06580 0.06556 0.06580 0.06556 0.06518 0.06490 0.06483 0.06582 0.06571 0.06571 0.06582 0.06561 0 2033 0.06812 0.06788 0.06774 0.06774 0.06788 0.06762 0.06788 0.06762 0.06722 0.06692 0.06685 0.06790 0.06778 0.06778 0.06790 0.06767 0 2034 0.07022 0.06996 0.06981 0.06981 0.06996 0.06969 0.06996 0.06969 0.06926 0.06895 0.06887 0.06998 0.06985 0.06985 0.06998 0.06974 0 2035 0.07231 0.07203 0.07188 0.07188 0.07203 0.07175 0.07203 0.07175 0.07131 0.07098 0.07089 0.07206 0.07192 0.07192 0.07206 0.07180 0 2036 0.07441 0.07411 0.07395 0.07395 0.07411 0.07382 0.07411 0.07382 0.07335 0.07300 0.07291 0.07414 0.07399 0.07399 0.07414 0.07387 0.

Large Engines Units = Mega tonnes (Mt)ICAO Default TIM - NOx 2012 Stringency Implementation 2016 Stringency Im

Baseline NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10 NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 

 2006 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0.26130 0. 2007 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0 2008 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0 2009 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0 2010 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0 2011 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0 2012 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0. 2013 0.37704 0.37546 0.37546 0.37529 0.37519 0.37519 0.37493 0.37493 0.37425 0.37425 0.37425 0.37704 0.37704 0.37704 0.37704 0.37704 0 2014 0.39350 0.39035 0.39035 0.39001 0.38981 0.38981 0.38929 0.38929 0.38792 0.38792 0.38792 0.39350 0.39350 0.39350 0.39350 0.39350 0 2015 0.40997 0.40525 0.40525 0.40472 0.40442 0.40442 0.40364 0.40364 0.40159 0.40159 0.40159 0.40997 0.40997 0.40997 0.40997 0.40997 0 2016 0.42643 0.42014 0.42014 0.41944 0.41904 0.41904 0.41800 0.41800 0.41526 0.41526 0.41526 0.42643 0.42643 0.42643 0.42643 0.42643 0. 2017 0.45182 0.44327 0.44327 0.44228 0.44171 0.44171 0.44022 0.44022 0.43645 0.43645 0.43645 0.44956 0.44956 0.44926 0.44910 0.44910 0 2018 0.47720 0.46639 0.46639 0.46511 0.46438 0.46438 0.46244 0.46244 0.45764 0.45764 0.45764 0.47268 0.47268 0.47210 0.47176 0.47176 0 2019 0.50258 0.48952 0.48952 0.48795 0.48705 0.48705 0.48466 0.48466 0.47882 0.47882 0.47882 0.49580 0.49580 0.49493 0.49442 0.49442 0 2020 0.52796 0.51265 0.51265 0.51079 0.50972 0.50972 0.50688 0.50688 0.50001 0.50001 0.50001 0.51893 0.51893 0.51776 0.51709 0.51709 0 2021 0.55334 0.53578 0.53578 0.53363 0.53239 0.53239 0.52910 0.52910 0.52119 0.52119 0.52119 0.54205 0.54205 0.54059 0.53975 0.53975 0 2022 0.57873 0.55891 0.55891 0.55646 0.55506 0.55506 0.55132 0.55132 0.54238 0.54238 0.54238 0.56518 0.56518 0.56342 0.56241 0.56241 0 2023 0.60411 0.58204 0.58204 0.57930 0.57773 0.57773 0.57354 0.57354 0.56357 0.56357 0.56357 0.58830 0.58830 0.58625 0.58507 0.58507 0 2024 0.62949 0.60517 0.60517 0.60214 0.60040 0.60040 0.59576 0.59576 0.58475 0.58475 0.58475 0.61142 0.61142 0.60908 0.60774 0.60774 0 2025 0.65487 0.62830 0.62830 0.62498 0.62307 0.62307 0.61798 0.61798 0.60594 0.60594 0.60594 0.63455 0.63455 0.63191 0.63040 0.63040 0 2026 0.68025 0.65143 0.65143 0.64781 0.64574 0.64574 0.64020 0.64020 0.62713 0.62713 0.62713 0.65767 0.65767 0.65474 0.65306 0.65306 0. 2027 0.72235 0.69050 0.69050 0.68643 0.68410 0.68410 0.67781 0.67781 0.66322 0.66322 0.66322 0.69674 0.69674 0.69336 0.69142 0.69142 0 2028 0.76444 0.72958 0.72958 0.72505 0.72245 0.72245 0.71542 0.71542 0.69931 0.69931 0.69931 0.73581 0.73581 0.73197 0.72977 0.72977 0 2029 0.80654 0.76865 0.76865 0.76367 0.76081 0.76081 0.75303 0.75303 0.73541 0.73541 0.73541 0.77488 0.77488 0.77059 0.76812 0.76812 0 2030 0.84863 0.80772 0.80772 0.80229 0.79917 0.79917 0.79064 0.79064 0.77150 0.77150 0.77150 0.81396 0.81396 0.80921 0.80648 0.80648 0 2031 0.89073 0.84680 0.84680 0.84091 0.83752 0.83752 0.82825 0.82825 0.80759 0.80759 0.80759 0.85303 0.85303 0.84782 0.84483 0.84483 0 2032 0.93282 0.88587 0.88587 0.87952 0.87588 0.87588 0.86585 0.86585 0.84368 0.84368 0.84368 0.89210 0.89210 0.88644 0.88319 0.88319 0 2033 0.97492 0.92495 0.92495 0.91814 0.91424 0.91424 0.90346 0.90346 0.87978 0.87978 0.87978 0.93117 0.93117 0.92505 0.92154 0.92154 0 2034 1.01701 0.96402 0.96402 0.95676 0.95259 0.95259 0.94107 0.94107 0.91587 0.91587 0.91587 0.97024 0.97024 0.96367 0.95989 0.95989 0 2035 1.05911 1.00309 1.00309 0.99538 0.99095 0.99095 0.97868 0.97868 0.95196 0.95196 0.95196 1.00931 1.00931 1.00229 0.99825 0.99825 0 2036 1.10120 1.04217 1.04217 1.03400 1.02931 1.02931 1.01629 1.01629 0.98805 0.98805 0.98805 1.04838 1.04838 1.04090 1.03660 1.03660 1.
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix E 

E-2

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency Analysis – Review of Benefits

Reduction in Global Fleet LTO NOX from Baseline – Mega tonnes (Mt)

Small Engines

2012 Stringency Implementation 2016 Stringency Im

Baseline NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10 NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 

2006 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02007 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2008 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2009 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2010 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2011 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2012 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02013 0.00000 -0.00001 -0.00001 -0.00001 -0.00001 -0.00001 -0.00001 -0.00001 -0.00003 -0.00004 -0.00004 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2014 0.00000 -0.00001 -0.00002 -0.00002 -0.00001 -0.00003 -0.00001 -0.00003 -0.00007 -0.00008 -0.00009 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2015 0.00000 -0.00002 -0.00003 -0.00003 -0.00002 -0.00004 -0.00002 -0.00004 -0.00010 -0.00013 -0.00013 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2016 0.00000 -0.00002 -0.00004 -0.00004 -0.00002 -0.00005 -0.00002 -0.00005 -0.00014 -0.00017 -0.00018 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02017 0.00000 -0.00004 -0.00006 -0.00006 -0.00004 -0.00007 -0.00004 -0.00007 -0.00018 -0.00022 -0.00024 -0.00001 -0.00002 -0.00002 -0.00001 -0.00002 -02018 0.00000 -0.00005 -0.00008 -0.00008 -0.00005 -0.00010 -0.00005 -0.00010 -0.00022 -0.00028 -0.00029 -0.00002 -0.00004 -0.00004 -0.00002 -0.00005 -02019 0.00000 -0.00006 -0.00009 -0.00009 -0.00006 -0.00012 -0.00006 -0.00012 -0.00026 -0.00033 -0.00035 -0.00004 -0.00005 -0.00005 -0.00004 -0.00007 -02020 0.00000 -0.00007 -0.00011 -0.00011 -0.00007 -0.00014 -0.00007 -0.00014 -0.00030 -0.00039 -0.00041 -0.00005 -0.00007 -0.00007 -0.00005 -0.00009 -02021 0.00000 -0.00008 -0.00013 -0.00013 -0.00008 -0.00017 -0.00008 -0.00017 -0.00034 -0.00044 -0.00047 -0.00006 -0.00009 -0.00009 -0.00006 -0.00012 -02022 0.00000 -0.00010 -0.00015 -0.00015 -0.00010 -0.00019 -0.00010 -0.00019 -0.00038 -0.00050 -0.00053 -0.00007 -0.00011 -0.00011 -0.00007 -0.00014 -02023 0.00000 -0.00011 -0.00017 -0.00017 -0.00011 -0.00022 -0.00011 -0.00022 -0.00042 -0.00055 -0.00058 -0.00008 -0.00013 -0.00013 -0.00008 -0.00017 -02024 0.00000 -0.00012 -0.00018 -0.00018 -0.00012 -0.00024 -0.00012 -0.00024 -0.00046 -0.00061 -0.00064 -0.00009 -0.00015 -0.00015 -0.00009 -0.00019 -02025 0.00000 -0.00013 -0.00020 -0.00020 -0.00013 -0.00026 -0.00013 -0.00026 -0.00051 -0.00066 -0.00070 -0.00011 -0.00016 -0.00016 -0.00011 -0.00021 -02026 0.00000 -0.00014 -0.00022 -0.00022 -0.00014 -0.00029 -0.00014 -0.00029 -0.00055 -0.00072 -0.00076 -0.00012 -0.00018 -0.00018 -0.00012 -0.00024 -0.2027 0.00000 -0.00016 -0.00024 -0.00024 -0.00016 -0.00032 -0.00016 -0.00032 -0.00060 -0.00078 -0.00083 -0.00013 -0.00020 -0.00020 -0.00013 -0.00027 -02028 0.00000 -0.00017 -0.00027 -0.00027 -0.00017 -0.00035 -0.00017 -0.00035 -0.00065 -0.00085 -0.00090 -0.00015 -0.00023 -0.00023 -0.00015 -0.00030 -02029 0.00000 -0.00019 -0.00029 -0.00029 -0.00019 -0.00038 -0.00019 -0.00038 -0.00070 -0.00092 -0.00098 -0.00016 -0.00025 -0.00025 -0.00016 -0.00033 -02030 0.00000 -0.00020 -0.00031 -0.00031 -0.00020 -0.00041 -0.00020 -0.00041 -0.00075 -0.00099 -0.00105 -0.00018 -0.00027 -0.00027 -0.00018 -0.00036 -02031 0.00000 -0.00022 -0.00034 -0.00034 -0.00022 -0.00044 -0.00022 -0.00044 -0.00080 -0.00106 -0.00112 -0.00019 -0.00030 -0.00030 -0.00019 -0.00039 -02032 0.00000 -0.00023 -0.00036 -0.00036 -0.00023 -0.00047 -0.00023 -0.00047 -0.00085 -0.00113 -0.00120 -0.00021 -0.00032 -0.00032 -0.00021 -0.00042 -02033 0.00000 -0.00025 -0.00038 -0.00038 -0.00025 -0.00050 -0.00025 -0.00050 -0.00090 -0.00120 -0.00127 -0.00022 -0.00034 -0.00034 -0.00022 -0.00045 -02034 0.00000 -0.00026 -0.00041 -0.00041 -0.00026 -0.00053 -0.00026 -0.00053 -0.00095 -0.00127 -0.00134 -0.00024 -0.00037 -0.00037 -0.00024 -0.00048 -02035 0.00000 -0.00028 -0.00043 -0.00043 -0.00028 -0.00056 -0.00028 -0.00056 -0.00100 -0.00134 -0.00142 -0.00025 -0.00039 -0.00039 -0.00025 -0.00051 -02036 0.00000 -0.00029 -0.00045 -0.00045 -0.00029 -0.00059 -0.00029 -0.00059 -0.00105 -0.00140 -0.00149 -0.00027 -0.00041 -0.00041 -0.00027 -0.00054 -0.

Summary of LTO NOX Reduction from 2009-2036

Cumulative Reduction -0.00320 -0.00497 -0.00497 -0.00320 -0.00646 -0.00320 -0.00646 -0.01224 -0.01607 -0.01702 -0.00264 -0.00409 -0.00409 -0.00264 -0.00532 -0

Discount 

rate 

Present value 3% -0.00179 -0.00278 -0.00278 -0.00179 -0.00362 -0.00179 -0.00362 -0.00694 -0.00909 -0.00962 -0.00144 -0.00223 -0.00223 -0.00144 -0.00290 -0

7% -0.00088 -0.00137 -0.00137 -0.00088 -0.00179 -0.00088 -0.00179 -0.00350 -0.00456 -0.00482 -0.00068 -0.00105 -0.00105 -0.00068 -0.00137 -09% -0.00064 -0.00099 -0.00099 -0.00064 -0.00129 -0.00064 -0.00129 -0.00256 -0.00332 -0.00351 -0.00048 -0.00074 -0.00074 -0.00048 -0.00096 -0
 E-3 

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency Analysis – Review of Benefits

Reduction in Global Fleet LTO NOX from Baseline – Mega tonnes (Mt)

Large Engines

2012 Stringency Implementation 2016 Stringency Imp

Baseline NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10 NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 

2006 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02007 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02008 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02009 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02010 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02011 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02012 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02013 0.00000 -0.00157 -0.00157 -0.00175 -0.00185 -0.00185 -0.00211 -0.00211 -0.00279 -0.00279 -0.00279 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02014 0.00000 -0.00315 -0.00315 -0.00350 -0.00370 -0.00370 -0.00422 -0.00422 -0.00559 -0.00559 -0.00559 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02015 0.00000 -0.00472 -0.00472 -0.00525 -0.00554 -0.00554 -0.00633 -0.00633 -0.00838 -0.00838 -0.00838 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02016 0.00000 -0.00630 -0.00630 -0.00699 -0.00739 -0.00739 -0.00843 -0.00843 -0.01117 -0.01117 -0.01117 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02017 0.00000 -0.00855 -0.00855 -0.00954 -0.01010 -0.01010 -0.01160 -0.01160 -0.01537 -0.01537 -0.01537 -0.00226 -0.00226 -0.00255 -0.00272 -0.00272 -0.02018 0.00000 -0.01080 -0.01080 -0.01208 -0.01282 -0.01282 -0.01476 -0.01476 -0.01956 -0.01956 -0.01956 -0.00452 -0.00452 -0.00510 -0.00544 -0.00544 -0.02019 0.00000 -0.01306 -0.01306 -0.01463 -0.01553 -0.01553 -0.01792 -0.01792 -0.02376 -0.02376 -0.02376 -0.00678 -0.00678 -0.00765 -0.00816 -0.00816 -0.02020 0.00000 -0.01531 -0.01531 -0.01717 -0.01824 -0.01824 -0.02108 -0.02108 -0.02795 -0.02795 -0.02795 -0.00903 -0.00903 -0.01021 -0.01088 -0.01088 -0.02021 0.00000 -0.01756 -0.01756 -0.01972 -0.02095 -0.02095 -0.02424 -0.02424 -0.03215 -0.03215 -0.03215 -0.01129 -0.01129 -0.01276 -0.01360 -0.01360 -0.02022 0.00000 -0.01981 -0.01981 -0.02226 -0.02367 -0.02367 -0.02741 -0.02741 -0.03634 -0.03634 -0.03634 -0.01355 -0.01355 -0.01531 -0.01631 -0.01631 -0.02023 0.00000 -0.02207 -0.02207 -0.02481 -0.02638 -0.02638 -0.03057 -0.03057 -0.04054 -0.04054 -0.04054 -0.01581 -0.01581 -0.01786 -0.01903 -0.01903 -0.02024 0.00000 -0.02432 -0.02432 -0.02735 -0.02909 -0.02909 -0.03373 -0.03373 -0.04474 -0.04474 -0.04474 -0.01807 -0.01807 -0.02041 -0.02175 -0.02175 -0.02025 0.00000 -0.02657 -0.02657 -0.02990 -0.03180 -0.03180 -0.03689 -0.03689 -0.04893 -0.04893 -0.04893 -0.02033 -0.02033 -0.02296 -0.02447 -0.02447 -0.02026 0.00000 -0.02882 -0.02882 -0.03244 -0.03452 -0.03452 -0.04006 -0.04006 -0.05313 -0.05313 -0.05313 -0.02258 -0.02258 -0.02551 -0.02719 -0.02719 -0.02027 0.00000 -0.03184 -0.03184 -0.03592 -0.03825 -0.03825 -0.04454 -0.04454 -0.05913 -0.05913 -0.05913 -0.02561 -0.02561 -0.02899 -0.03093 -0.03093 -0.02028 0.00000 -0.03487 -0.03487 -0.03939 -0.04199 -0.04199 -0.04903 -0.04903 -0.06513 -0.06513 -0.06513 -0.02863 -0.02863 -0.03247 -0.03467 -0.03467 -0.02029 0.00000 -0.03789 -0.03789 -0.04287 -0.04573 -0.04573 -0.05351 -0.05351 -0.07113 -0.07113 -0.07113 -0.03165 -0.03165 -0.03595 -0.03841 -0.03841 -0.02030 0.00000 -0.04091 -0.04091 -0.04635 -0.04947 -0.04947 -0.05800 -0.05800 -0.07714 -0.07714 -0.07714 -0.03468 -0.03468 -0.03943 -0.04216 -0.04216 -0.02031 0.00000 -0.04393 -0.04393 -0.04982 -0.05321 -0.05321 -0.06248 -0.06248 -0.08314 -0.08314 -0.08314 -0.03770 -0.03770 -0.04291 -0.04590 -0.04590 -0.02032 0.00000 -0.04695 -0.04695 -0.05330 -0.05695 -0.05695 -0.06697 -0.06697 -0.08914 -0.08914 -0.08914 -0.04073 -0.04073 -0.04639 -0.04964 -0.04964 -0.02033 0.00000 -0.04997 -0.04997 -0.05678 -0.06068 -0.06068 -0.07146 -0.07146 -0.09514 -0.09514 -0.09514 -0.04375 -0.04375 -0.04987 -0.05338 -0.05338 -0.02034 0.00000 -0.05300 -0.05300 -0.06025 -0.06442 -0.06442 -0.07594 -0.07594 -0.10115 -0.10115 -0.10115 -0.04677 -0.04677 -0.05334 -0.05712 -0.05712 -0.02035 0.00000 -0.05602 -0.05602 -0.06373 -0.06816 -0.06816 -0.08043 -0.08043 -0.10715 -0.10715 -0.10715 -0.04980 -0.04980 -0.05682 -0.06086 -0.06086 -0.02036 0.00000 -0.05904 -0.05904 -0.06720 -0.07190 -0.07190 -0.08491 -0.08491 -0.11315 -0.11315 -0.11315 -0.05282 -0.05282 -0.06030 -0.06460 -0.06460 -0.0

Summary of LTO NOX Reduction from 2009-2036

Cumulative Reduction -0.65703 -0.65703 -0.74300 -0.79234 -0.79234 -0.92661 -0.92661 -1.23179 -1.23179 -1.23179 -0.51635 -0.51635 -0.58679 -0.62723 -0.62723 -0.7

Discount 

rate 

Present value 3% -0.36972 -0.36972 -0.41767 -0.44518 -0.44518 -0.51986 -0.51986 -0.69086 -0.69086 -0.69086 -0.28092 -0.28092 -0.31906 -0.34096 -0.34096 -0.4

7% -0.18411 -0.18411 -0.20768 -0.22121 -0.22121 -0.25778 -0.25778 -0.34242 -0.34242 -0.34242 -0.13233 -0.13233 -0.15018 -0.16043 -0.16043 -0.19% -0.13372 -0.13372 -0.15072 -0.16048 -0.16048 -0.18681 -0.18681 -0.24809 -0.24809 -0.24809 -0.09304 -0.09304 -0.10556 -0.11274 -0.11274 -0.1
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix E 

E-4

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency Analysis – Review of Benefits

Reduction in Global Fleet LTO NOX from Baseline – Mega tonnes (Mt)

Combined Small and Large Engine Cumulative Reduction in NOX (Mt)

2012 Stringency Implementation 2016 Stringency Imp

 NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10 NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 

2006 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0

2007 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02008 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02009 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02010 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02011 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0

2012 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0

2013 -0.00158 -0.00158 -0.00176 -0.00185 -0.00186 -0.00211 -0.00212 -0.00283 -0.00284 -0.00284 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02014 -0.00316 -0.00317 -0.00352 -0.00371 -0.00372 -0.00423 -0.00424 -0.00566 -0.00567 -0.00567 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02015 -0.00474 -0.00475 -0.00527 -0.00556 -0.00558 -0.00634 -0.00636 -0.00848 -0.00851 -0.00851 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0

2016 -0.00632 -0.00634 -0.00703 -0.00742 -0.00744 -0.00846 -0.00848 -0.01131 -0.01134 -0.01135 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0

2017 -0.00859 -0.00861 -0.00960 -0.01014 -0.01018 -0.01163 -0.01167 -0.01555 -0.01559 -0.01560 -0.00227 -0.00228 -0.00257 -0.00273 -0.00274 -0.02018 -0.01085 -0.01088 -0.01216 -0.01287 -0.01291 -0.01481 -0.01486 -0.01978 -0.01984 -0.01986 -0.00454 -0.00455 -0.00514 -0.00546 -0.00549 -0.02019 -0.01312 -0.01315 -0.01472 -0.01559 -0.01565 -0.01798 -0.01804 -0.02402 -0.02409 -0.02411 -0.00681 -0.00683 -0.00771 -0.00819 -0.00823 -0.02020 -0.01538 -0.01542 -0.01728 -0.01831 -0.01839 -0.02115 -0.02123 -0.02826 -0.02834 -0.02836 -0.00908 -0.00911 -0.01028 -0.01092 -0.01097 -0.02021 -0.01764 -0.01769 -0.01985 -0.02104 -0.02112 -0.02433 -0.02441 -0.03249 -0.03259 -0.03262 -0.01135 -0.01138 -0.01285 -0.01365 -0.01371 -0.02022 -0.01991 -0.01996 -0.02241 -0.02376 -0.02386 -0.02750 -0.02760 -0.03673 -0.03684 -0.03687 -0.01362 -0.01366 -0.01542 -0.01638 -0.01646 -0.02023 -0.02217 -0.02223 -0.02497 -0.02649 -0.02659 -0.03068 -0.03078 -0.04096 -0.04109 -0.04112 -0.01589 -0.01594 -0.01799 -0.01912 -0.01920 -0.02024 -0.02444 -0.02450 -0.02754 -0.02921 -0.02933 -0.03385 -0.03397 -0.04520 -0.04534 -0.04538 -0.01816 -0.01821 -0.02056 -0.02185 -0.02194 -0.02025 -0.02670 -0.02677 -0.03010 -0.03193 -0.03207 -0.03702 -0.03716 -0.04944 -0.04959 -0.04963 -0.02043 -0.02049 -0.02312 -0.02458 -0.02468 -0.0

2026 -0.02897 -0.02904 -0.03266 -0.03466 -0.03480 -0.04020 -0.04034 -0.05367 -0.05384 -0.05389 -0.02270 -0.02277 -0.02569 -0.02731 -0.02743 -0.0

2027 -0.03200 -0.03209 -0.03616 -0.03841 -0.03857 -0.04470 -0.04486 -0.05973 -0.05991 -0.05996 -0.02574 -0.02581 -0.02920 -0.03106 -0.03120 -0.02028 -0.03504 -0.03513 -0.03966 -0.04216 -0.04234 -0.04920 -0.04937 -0.06578 -0.06599 -0.06604 -0.02878 -0.02886 -0.03270 -0.03482 -0.03497 -0.02029 -0.03807 -0.03818 -0.04316 -0.04592 -0.04611 -0.05370 -0.05389 -0.07183 -0.07206 -0.07211 -0.03182 -0.03191 -0.03620 -0.03858 -0.03874 -0.02030 -0.04111 -0.04122 -0.04666 -0.04967 -0.04988 -0.05820 -0.05841 -0.07789 -0.07813 -0.07819 -0.03486 -0.03495 -0.03970 -0.04233 -0.04251 -0.02031 -0.04415 -0.04427 -0.05016 -0.05342 -0.05364 -0.06270 -0.06292 -0.08394 -0.08420 -0.08426 -0.03789 -0.03800 -0.04321 -0.04609 -0.04628 -0.02032 -0.04718 -0.04731 -0.05366 -0.05718 -0.05741 -0.06720 -0.06744 -0.08999 -0.09027 -0.09034 -0.04093 -0.04105 -0.04671 -0.04985 -0.05006 -0.02033 -0.05022 -0.05036 -0.05716 -0.06093 -0.06118 -0.07170 -0.07195 -0.09605 -0.09634 -0.09641 -0.04397 -0.04409 -0.05021 -0.05360 -0.05383 -0.02034 -0.05326 -0.05340 -0.06066 -0.06468 -0.06495 -0.07620 -0.07647 -0.10210 -0.10241 -0.10249 -0.04701 -0.04714 -0.05371 -0.05736 -0.05760 -0.02035 -0.05629 -0.05645 -0.06416 -0.06844 -0.06872 -0.08070 -0.08099 -0.10815 -0.10848 -0.10857 -0.05005 -0.05019 -0.05721 -0.06111 -0.06137 -0.0

2036 -0.05933 -0.05949 -0.06766 -0.07219 -0.07249 -0.08520 -0.08550 -0.11420 -0.11455 -0.11464 -0.05309 -0.05323 -0.06072 -0.06487 -0.06514 -0.0

Summary of LTO NOX Reduction from 2009-2036

Cumulative Reduction -0.66023 -0.66200 -0.74796 -0.79554 -0.79880 -0.92981 -0.93307 -1.24403 -1.24787 -1.24882 -0.51899 -0.52045 -0.59088 -0.62987 -0.63255 -0.7

Discount 

rate 

Present value 3% -0.37151 -0.37250 -0.42045 -0.44697 -0.44880 -0.52165 -0.52348 -0.69780 -0.69995 -0.70048 -0.28235 -0.28315 -0.32129 -0.34239 -0.34386 -0.4

7% -0.18500 -0.18549 -0.20906 -0.22209 -0.22299 -0.25866 -0.25956 -0.34592 -0.34698 -0.34724 -0.13300 -0.13338 -0.15123 -0.16111 -0.16180 -0.19% -0.13435 -0.13471 -0.15171 -0.16112 -0.16177 -0.18745 -0.18810 -0.25065 -0.25141 -0.25160 -0.09352 -0.09378 -0.10630 -0.11322 -0.11370 -0.1

— — — — — — — —
 

APPENDIX F 

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency Results

Time Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 1 2 41 42 3 4 43 44 5 6 45 46 

NOx Stringency Option NS01 NS01 NS01 NS01 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS03 NS03 NS03 NS03Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SMALL ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $1 $15 $1 $15 $69 $133 $67 $131 $69 $133 $67 $131  3% $1 $14 $1 $12 $59 $120 $52 $106 $59 $120 $52 $106  7% $1 $12 $1 $9 $52 $109 $40 $83 $52 $109 $40 $83  9% $1 $12 $1 $8 $49 $104 $35 $74 $49 $104 $35 $74 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $1 $15 $1 $15 $80 $144 $82 $146 $80 $144 $82 $146  3% $1 $14 $1 $12 $69 $130 $65 $119 $69 $130 $65 $119  7% $1 $12 $1 $9 $60 $117 $49 $92 $60 $117 $49 $92  9% $1 $12 $1 $8 $57 $112 $43 $82 $57 $112 $43 $82 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.0032 0.0032 0.0026 0.0026 0.0050 0.0050 0.0041 0.0041 0.0050 0.0050 0.0041 0.0041  3% 0.0018 0.0018 0.0014 0.0014 0.0028 0.0028 0.0022 0.0022 0.0028 0.0028 0.0022 0.0022  7% 0.0009 0.0009 0.0007 0.0007 0.0014 0.0014 0.0011 0.0011 0.0014 0.0014 0.0011 0.0011  9% 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.0010 0.0010 0.0007 0.0007 0.0010 0.0010 0.0007 0.0007 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $313 $4,691 $379 $5,692 $13,945 $26,827 $16,288 $31,918 $13,945 $26,827 $16,288 $31,918 

 3% $511 $7,668 $566 $8,496 $21,388 $43,201 $23,426 $47,594 $21,388 $43,201 $23,426 $47,594  7% $924 $13,853 $919 $13,792 $37,718 $79,030 $37,690 $78,819 $37,718 $79,030 $37,690 $78,819  9% $1,209 $18,133 $1,148 $17,217 $49,550 $104,919 $47,366 $99,936 $49,550 $104,919 $47,366 $99,936 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $313 $4,691 $379 $5,692 $16,109 $28,990 $20,135 $35,764 $16,109 $28,990 $20,135 $35,764 

 3% $511 $7,668 $566 $8,496 $24,822 $46,635 $29,001 $53,168 $24,822 $46,635 $29,001 $53,168  7% $924 $13,853 $919 $13,792 $43,690 $85,002 $46,401 $87,530 $43,690 $85,002 $46,401 $87,530  9% $1,209 $18,133 $1,148 $17,217 $57,223 $112,592 $58,040 $110,611 $57,223 $112,592 $58,040 $110,611 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix F 

F-2

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 1 2 41 42 3 4 43 44 5 6 45 46 

NOx Stringency Option NS01 NS01 NS01 NS01 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS03 NS03 NS03 NS03Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LARGE ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $1,398 $1,598 $1,167 $1,367 $1,398 $1,598 $1,167 $1,367 $1,513 $1,777 $1,270 $1,534  3% $896 $1,088 $718 $888 $896 $1,088 $718 $888 $983 $1,235 $791 $1,015  7% $557 $738 $412 $550 $557 $738 $412 $550 $624 $861 $462 $644  9% $460 $636 $324 $449 $460 $636 $324 $449 $520 $752 $366 $530 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $2,347 $2,547 $2,692 $2,892 $2,347 $2,547 $2,692 $2,892 $2,501 $2,765 $2,856 $3,120  3% $1,739 $1,931 $1,922 $2,092 $1,739 $1,931 $1,922 $2,092 $1,861 $2,113 $2,043 $2,267 

7% $1,281 $1,462 $1,300 $1,438 $1,281 $1,462 $1,300 $1,438 $1,377 $1,615 $1,385 $1,567 

 9% $1,132 $1,309 $1,089 $1,214 $1,132 $1,309 $1,089 $1,214 $1,220 $1,451 $1,162 $1,326 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.6570 0.6570 0.5164 0.5164 0.6570 0.6570 0.5164 0.5164 0.7430 0.7430 0.5868 0.5868  3% 0.3697 0.3697 0.2809 0.2809 0.3697 0.3697 0.2809 0.2809 0.4177 0.4177 0.3191 0.3191  7% 0.1841 0.1841 0.1323 0.1323 0.1841 0.1841 0.1323 0.1323 0.2077 0.2077 0.1502 0.1502  9% 0.1337 0.1337 0.0930 0.0930 0.1337 0.1337 0.0930 0.0930 0.1507 0.1507 0.1056 0.1056 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $2,127 $2,431 $2,261 $2,648 $2,127 $2,431 $2,261 $2,648 $2,036 $2,391 $2,164 $2,614 

 3% $2,424 $2,942 $2,556 $3,161 $2,424 $2,942 $2,556 $3,161 $2,354 $2,957 $2,478 $3,180  7% $3,025 $4,010 $3,115 $4,160 $3,025 $4,010 $3,115 $4,160 $3,002 $4,148 $3,077 $4,286  9% $3,439 $4,759 $3,482 $4,826 $3,439 $4,759 $3,482 $4,826 $3,451 $4,987 $3,472 $5,025 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $3,571 $3,876 $5,214 $5,601 $3,571 $3,876 $5,214 $5,601 $3,366 $3,721 $4,867 $5,317 

 3% $4,705 $5,222 $6,840 $7,446 $4,705 $5,222 $6,840 $7,446 $4,455 $5,058 $6,402 $7,104 

7% $6,958 $7,942 $9,821 $10,866 $6,958 $7,942 $9,821 $10,866 $6,631 $7,776 $9,223 $10,432 

 9% $8,466 $9,787 $11,706 $13,050 $8,466 $9,787 $11,706 $13,050 $8,093 $9,629 $11,012 $12,566 
 F-3 

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 1 2 41 42 3 4 43 44 5 6 45 46 

NOx Stringency Option NS01 NS01 NS01 NS01 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS03 NS03 NS03 NS03Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A COMBINED SMALL AND LARGE ENGINE GROUP 

Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $1,399 $1,613 $1,168 $1,382 $1,467 $1,731 $1,234 $1,498 $1,582 $1,910 $1,336 $1,664  3% $897 $1,101 $719 $900 $956 $1,208 $770 $994 $1,043 $1,355 $843 $1,121  7% $558 $750 $413 $560 $609 $847 $452 $633 $675 $970 $502 $727  9% $461 $648 $324 $457 $509 $740 $359 $523 $569 $856 $402 $604 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $2,348 $2,562 $2,693 $2,907 $2,427 $2,691 $2,774 $3,038 $2,581 $2,909 $2,938 $3,266  3% $1,740 $1,945 $1,922 $2,104 $1,808 $2,061 $1,986 $2,210 $1,930 $2,242 $2,107 $2,385  7% $1,282 $1,474 $1,300 $1,447 $1,341 $1,579 $1,348 $1,530 $1,437 $1,732 $1,434 $1,659  9% $1,133 $1,320 $1,090 $1,222 $1,189 $1,420 $1,132 $1,296 $1,277 $1,563 $1,205 $1,408 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.6602 0.6602 0.5190 0.5190 0.6620 0.6620 0.5204 0.5204 0.7480 0.7480 0.5909 0.5909  3% 0.3715 0.3715 0.2824 0.2824 0.3725 0.3725 0.2831 0.2831 0.4204 0.4204 0.3213 0.3213  7% 0.1850 0.1850 0.1330 0.1330 0.1855 0.1855 0.1334 0.1334 0.2091 0.2091 0.1512 0.1512  9% 0.1344 0.1344 0.0935 0.0935 0.1347 0.1347 0.0938 0.0938 0.1517 0.1517 0.1063 0.1063 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $2,118 $2,442 $2,251 $2,663 $2,216 $2,615 $2,371 $2,878 $2,115 $2,554 $2,262 $2,817 

 3% $2,415 $2,965 $2,546 $3,188 $2,566 $3,242 $2,720 $3,511 $2,480 $3,223 $2,623 $3,488  7% $3,015 $4,057 $3,104 $4,209 $3,282 $4,565 $3,388 $4,749 $3,230 $4,640 $3,318 $4,804  9% $3,428 $4,823 $3,470 $4,889 $3,778 $5,497 $3,828 $5,577 $3,752 $5,640 $3,777 $5,687 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $3,556 $3,880 $5,189 $5,601 $3,666 $4,064 $5,331 $5,838 $3,450 $3,889 $4,973 $5,528 

 3% $4,684 $5,234 $6,809 $7,451 $4,855 $5,532 $7,015 $7,806 $4,590 $5,333 $6,559 $7,424  7% $6,929 $7,970 $9,776 $10,881 $7,230 $8,513 $10,110 $11,471 $6,874 $8,284 $9,482 $10,969  9% $8,432 $9,826 $11,652 $13,071 $8,826 $10,544 $12,072 $13,821 $8,415 $10,303 $11,340 $13,249 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix F 

F-4

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 7 8 47 48 9 10 49 50 

NOx Stringency Option NS04 NS04 NS04 NS04 NS05 NS05 NS05 NS05Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SMALL ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $1 $15 $1 $15 $131 $245 $127 $241  3% $1 $14 $1 $12 $114 $223 $101 $197  7% $1 $12 $1 $9 $101 $203 $77 $155  9% $1 $12 $1 $8 $96 $195 $68 $139 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $1 $15 $1 $15 $152 $266 $158 $272  3% $1 $14 $1 $12 $133 $242 $125 $222 

7% $1 $12 $1 $9 $117 $219 $95 $173 

 9% $1 $12 $1 $8 $111 $210 $84 $154 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.0032 0.0032 0.0026 0.0026 0.0065 0.0065 0.0053 0.0053  3% 0.0018 0.0018 0.0014 0.0014 0.0036 0.0036 0.0029 0.0029  7% 0.0009 0.0009 0.0007 0.0007 0.0018 0.0018 0.0014 0.0014  9% 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.0013 0.0013 0.0010 0.0010 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $313 $4,691 $379 $5,692 $20,320 $37,971 $23,851 $45,267 

 3% $511 $7,668 $566 $8,496 $31,629 $61,646 $34,698 $67,954  7% $924 $13,853 $919 $13,792 $56,476 $113,634 $56,402 $113,306  9% $1,209 $18,133 $1,148 $17,217 $74,497 $151,305 $71,138 $144,063 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $313 $4,691 $379 $5,692 $23,610 $41,261 $29,722 $51,138 

 3% $511 $7,668 $566 $8,496 $36,851 $66,868 $43,206 $76,463 

7% $924 $13,853 $919 $13,792 $65,558 $122,716 $69,697 $126,601 

 9% $1,209 $18,133 $1,148 $17,217 $86,166 $162,974 $87,430 $160,355 
 F-5 

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 7 8 47 48 9 10 49 50 

NOx Stringency Option NS04 NS04 NS04 NS04 NS05 NS05 NS05 NS05Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LARGE ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $1,514 $1,792 $1,271 $1,549 $1,514 $1,792 $1,271 $1,549  3% $984 $1,249 $791 $1,027 $984 $1,249 $791 $1,027  7% $624 $874 $463 $653 $624 $874 $463 $653  9% $521 $763 $367 $539 $521 $763 $367 $539 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $2,502 $2,780 $2,857 $3,135 $2,502 $2,780 $2,857 $3,135  3% $1,862 $2,126 $2,043 $2,279 $1,862 $2,126 $2,043 $2,279 

7% $1,378 $1,627 $1,386 $1,576 $1,378 $1,627 $1,386 $1,576 

 9% $1,221 $1,463 $1,163 $1,335 $1,221 $1,463 $1,163 $1,335 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.7923 0.7923 0.6272 0.6272 0.7923 0.7923 0.6272 0.6272  3% 0.4452 0.4452 0.3410 0.3410 0.4452 0.4452 0.3410 0.3410  7% 0.2212 0.2212 0.1604 0.1604 0.2212 0.2212 0.1604 0.1604  9% 0.1605 0.1605 0.1127 0.1127 0.1605 0.1605 0.1127 0.1127 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $1,911 $2,261 $2,026 $2,469 $1,911 $2,261 $2,026 $2,469 

 3% $2,210 $2,805 $2,321 $3,011 $2,210 $2,805 $2,321 $3,011  7% $2,822 $3,950 $2,884 $4,070 $2,822 $3,950 $2,884 $4,070  9% $3,246 $4,756 $3,255 $4,778 $3,246 $4,756 $3,255 $4,778 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $3,157 $3,508 $4,555 $4,998 $3,157 $3,508 $4,555 $4,998 

 3% $4,182 $4,777 $5,993 $6,683 $4,182 $4,777 $5,993 $6,683 

7% $6,229 $7,356 $8,638 $9,824 $6,229 $7,356 $8,638 $9,824 

 9% $7,606 $9,116 $10,315 $11,838 $7,606 $9,116 $10,315 $11,838 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix F 

F-6

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 7 8 47 48 9 10 49 50 

NOx Stringency Option NS04 NS04 NS04 NS04 NS05 NS05 NS05 NS05Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A COMBINED SMALL AND LARGE ENGINE GROUP 

Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $1,515 $1,807 $1,272 $1,564 $1,645 $2,037 $1,398 $1,790  3% $985 $1,263 $792 $1,039 $1,098 $1,472 $892 $1,224  7% $625 $886 $463 $662 $725 $1,077 $540 $808  9% $522 $775 $368 $547 $617 $958 $435 $677 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $2,503 $2,795 $2,858 $3,150 $2,654 $3,046 $3,015 $3,407  3% $1,862 $2,140 $2,044 $2,291 $1,995 $2,368 $2,169 $2,500  7% $1,379 $1,639 $1,386 $1,585 $1,495 $1,846 $1,481 $1,749  9% $1,221 $1,475 $1,164 $1,343 $1,332 $1,673 $1,247 $1,489 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.7955 0.7955 0.6299 0.6299 0.7988 0.7988 0.6326 0.6326  3% 0.4470 0.4470 0.3424 0.3424 0.4488 0.4488 0.3439 0.3439  7% 0.2221 0.2221 0.1611 0.1611 0.2230 0.2230 0.1618 0.1618  9% 0.1611 0.1611 0.1132 0.1132 0.1618 0.1618 0.1137 0.1137 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $1,904 $2,271 $2,019 $2,483 $2,059 $2,550 $2,210 $2,829 

 3% $2,203 $2,825 $2,314 $3,034 $2,447 $3,279 $2,594 $3,559  7% $2,815 $3,989 $2,876 $4,111 $3,252 $4,828 $3,337 $4,994  9% $3,238 $4,809 $3,247 $4,830 $3,814 $5,924 $3,830 $5,957 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $3,146 $3,513 $4,537 $5,001 $3,323 $3,813 $4,766 $5,386 

 3% $4,167 $4,788 $5,970 $6,691 $4,445 $5,277 $6,307 $7,272  7% $6,208 $7,382 $8,606 $9,841 $6,704 $8,280 $9,154 $10,811  9% $7,581 $9,152 $10,277 $11,861 $8,233 $10,343 $10,968 $13,096 
 F-7 

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 11 12 13 14 15 16 51 52 53 54 55 56 

NOx Stringency Option NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes SMALL ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15  3% $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12  7% $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $9 $1 $9 $1 $9  9% $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $8 $1 $8 $1 $8 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15  3% $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12  7% $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $9 $1 $9 $1 $9  9% $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $8 $1 $8 $1 $8 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.0032 0.0032 0.0032 0.0032 0.0032 0.0032 0.0026 0.0026 0.0026 0.0026 0.0026 0.0026  3% 0.0018 0.0018 0.0018 0.0018 0.0018 0.0018 0.0014 0.0014 0.0014 0.0014 0.0014 0.0014  7% 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007  9% 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $313 $4,691 $313 $4,691 $313 $4,691 $379 $5,692 $379 $5,692 $379 $5,692 

 3% $511 $7,668 $511 $7,668 $511 $7,668 $566 $8,496 $566 $8,496 $566 $8,496  7% $924 $13,853 $924 $13,853 $924 $13,853 $919 $13,792 $919 $13,792 $919 $13,792  9% $1,209 $18,133 $1,209 $18,133 $1,209 $18,133 $1,148 $17,217 $1,148 $17,217 $1,148 $17,217 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $313 $4,691 $313 $4,691 $313 $4,691 $379 $5,692 $379 $5,692 $379 $5,692 

 3% $511 $7,668 $511 $7,668 $511 $7,668 $566 $8,496 $566 $8,496 $566 $8,496  7% $924 $13,853 $924 $13,853 $924 $13,853 $919 $13,792 $919 $13,792 $919 $13,792  9% $1,209 $18,133 $1,209 $18,133 $1,209 $18,133 $1,148 $17,217 $1,148 $17,217 $1,148 $17,217 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix F 

F-8

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 11 12 13 14 15 16 51 52 53 54 55 56 

NOx Stringency Option NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes LARGE ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $5,861 $6,925 $9,928 $10,992 $9,948 $11,192 $6,053 $7,117 $9,265 $10,329 $9,285 $10,529  3% $4,423 $5,441 $6,704 $7,722 $6,723 $7,913 $4,267 $5,171 $6,008 $6,912 $6,025 $7,082  7% $3,273 $4,236 $4,404 $5,367 $4,422 $5,548 $2,820 $3,555 $3,635 $4,370 $3,649 $4,508  9% $2,882 $3,820 $3,701 $4,639 $3,719 $4,816 $2,333 $2,997 $2,905 $3,569 $2,917 $3,694 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $7,529 $8,593 $11,596 $12,660 $11,616 $12,860 $8,769 $9,833 $11,981 $13,045 $12,001 $13,245  3% $5,904 $6,922 $8,185 $9,203 $8,205 $9,395 $6,411 $7,315 $8,152 $9,056 $8,169 $9,226  7% $4,545 $5,508 $5,676 $6,639 $5,694 $6,820 $4,401 $5,135 $5,216 $5,951 $5,230 $6,089  9% $4,063 $5,001 $4,883 $5,820 $4,900 $5,997 $3,696 $4,360 $4,268 $4,932 $4,280 $5,057 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.7383 0.7383 0.7383 0.7383 0.7383 0.7383  3% 0.5199 0.5199 0.5199 0.5199 0.5199 0.5199 0.4010 0.4010 0.4010 0.4010 0.4010 0.4010  7% 0.2578 0.2578 0.2578 0.2578 0.2578 0.2578 0.1884 0.1884 0.1884 0.1884 0.1884 0.1884  9% 0.1868 0.1868 0.1868 0.1868 0.1868 0.1868 0.1323 0.1323 0.1323 0.1323 0.1323 0.1323 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $6,326 $7,474 $10,715 $11,863 $10,736 $12,079 $8,199 $9,640 $12,550 $13,991 $12,577 $14,262 

 3% $8,508 $10,466 $12,896 $14,854 $12,933 $15,222 $10,641 $12,897 $14,983 $17,238 $15,025 $17,662  7% $12,698 $16,433 $17,084 $20,819 $17,155 $21,522 $14,965 $18,863 $19,292 $23,190 $19,365 $23,923  9% $15,428 $20,448 $19,814 $24,834 $19,909 $25,779 $17,628 $22,648 $21,946 $26,966 $22,041 $27,911 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $8,125 $9,273 $12,514 $13,662 $12,536 $13,878 $11,878 $13,319 $16,228 $17,670 $16,256 $17,941 

 3% $11,357 $13,315 $15,745 $17,703 $15,782 $18,071 $15,989 $18,244 $20,330 $22,585 $20,372 $23,009  7% $17,632 $21,367 $22,019 $25,754 $22,089 $26,457 $23,354 $27,252 $27,680 $31,578 $27,754 $32,312  9% $21,750 $26,770 $26,137 $31,157 $26,231 $32,102 $27,927 $32,947 $32,245 $37,265 $32,340 $38,210 
 F-9 

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 11 12 13 14 15 16 51 52 53 54 55 56 

NOx Stringency Option NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes COMBINED SMALL AND LARGE ENGINE GROUP 

Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $5,862 $6,940 $9,929 $11,007 $9,949 $11,207 $6,054 $7,132 $9,266 $10,344 $9,286 $10,544  3% $4,424 $5,455 $6,705 $7,736 $6,724 $7,927 $4,268 $5,183 $6,008 $6,924 $6,025 $7,094  7% $3,274 $4,248 $4,405 $5,379 $4,423 $5,560 $2,821 $3,564 $3,636 $4,379 $3,650 $4,517  9% $2,883 $3,831 $3,702 $4,651 $3,720 $4,827 $2,334 $3,006 $2,905 $3,577 $2,918 $3,702 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $7,530 $8,608 $11,597 $12,675 $11,617 $12,875 $8,770 $9,848 $11,982 $13,060 $12,002 $13,260  3% $5,905 $6,936 $8,186 $9,217 $8,205 $9,408 $6,412 $7,327 $8,152 $9,068 $8,169 $9,238  7% $4,546 $5,520 $5,677 $6,651 $5,695 $6,832 $4,401 $5,145 $5,217 $5,960 $5,230 $6,098  9% $4,064 $5,012 $4,883 $5,832 $4,901 $6,008 $3,697 $4,369 $4,268 $4,940 $4,281 $5,065 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.9298 0.9298 0.9298 0.9298 0.9298 0.9298 0.7409 0.7409 0.7409 0.7409 0.7409 0.7409  3% 0.5217 0.5217 0.5217 0.5217 0.5217 0.5217 0.4024 0.4024 0.4024 0.4024 0.4024 0.4024  7% 0.2587 0.2587 0.2587 0.2587 0.2587 0.2587 0.1891 0.1891 0.1891 0.1891 0.1891 0.1891  9% 0.1874 0.1874 0.1874 0.1874 0.1874 0.1874 0.1328 0.1328 0.1328 0.1328 0.1328 0.1328 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $6,305 $7,464 $10,679 $11,838 $10,700 $12,053 $8,171 $9,626 $12,506 $13,961 $12,533 $14,231 

 3% $8,481 $10,456 $12,853 $14,829 $12,890 $15,196 $10,606 $12,881 $14,931 $17,207 $14,974 $17,630  7% $12,657 $16,424 $17,029 $20,796 $17,099 $21,496 $14,915 $18,845 $19,226 $23,156 $19,299 $23,887  9% $15,379 $20,440 $19,751 $24,811 $19,845 $25,753 $17,569 $22,628 $21,872 $26,931 $21,966 $27,873 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $8,098 $9,257 $12,472 $13,631 $12,494 $13,846 $11,837 $13,292 $16,172 $17,627 $16,199 $17,897 

 3% $11,320 $13,296 $15,693 $17,669 $15,730 $18,036 $15,934 $18,209 $20,259 $22,535 $20,302 $22,958  7% $17,575 $21,341 $21,946 $25,713 $22,017 $26,414 $23,274 $27,204 $27,584 $31,514 $27,657 $32,245  9% $21,680 $26,741 $26,052 $31,113 $26,146 $32,055 $27,831 $32,891 $32,134 $37,193 $32,228 $38,135 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix F 

F-10

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

2

($1

Model Run 17 18 19 20 21 22 57 58 59 60 61 62 8

NOx Stringency Option NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NSStringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 20MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High HMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes YSMALL ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $131 $245 $131 $245 $131 $245 $127 $241 $127 $241 $127 $241  3% $114 $223 $114 $223 $114 $223 $101 $197 $101 $197 $101 $197  7% $101 $203 $101 $203 $101 $203 $77 $155 $77 $155 $77 $155  9% $96 $195 $96 $195 $96 $195 $68 $139 $68 $139 $68 $139 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $152 $266 $152 $266 $152 $266 $158 $272 $158 $272 $158 $272  3% $133 $242 $133 $242 $133 $242 $125 $222 $125 $222 $125 $222  7% $117 $219 $117 $219 $117 $219 $95 $173 $95 $173 $95 $173  9% $111 $210 $111 $210 $111 $210 $84 $154 $84 $154 $84 $154 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.0065 0.0065 0.0065 0.0065 0.0065 0.0065 0.0053 0.0053 0.0053 0.0053 0.0053 0.0053 0 3% 0.0036 0.0036 0.0036 0.0036 0.0036 0.0036 0.0029 0.0029 0.0029 0.0029 0.0029 0.0029 0 7% 0.0018 0.0018 0.0018 0.0018 0.0018 0.0018 0.0014 0.0014 0.0014 0.0014 0.0014 0.0014 0 9% 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $20,320 $37,971 $20,320 $37,971 $20,320 $37,971 $23,851 $45,267 $23,851 $45,267 $23,851 $45,267 $3

 3% $31,629 $61,646 $31,629 $61,646 $31,629 $61,646 $34,698 $67,954 $34,698 $67,954 $34,698 $67,954 $6 7% $56,476 $113,634 $56,476 $113,634 $56,476 $113,634 $56,402 $113,306 $56,402 $113,306 $56,402 $113,306 $11 9% $74,497 $151,305 $74,497 $151,305 $74,497 $151,305 $71,138 $144,063 $71,138 $144,063 $71,138 $144,063 $15

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $23,610 $41,261 $23,610 $41,261 $23,610 $41,261 $29,722 $51,138 $29,722 $51,138 $29,722 $51,138 $4

 3% $36,851 $66,868 $36,851 $66,868 $36,851 $66,868 $43,206 $76,463 $43,206 $76,463 $43,206 $76,463 $6 7% $65,558 $122,716 $65,558 $122,716 $65,558 $122,716 $69,697 $126,601 $69,697 $126,601 $69,697 $126,601 $12 9% $86,166 $162,974 $86,166 $162,974 $86,166 $162,974 $87,430 $160,355 $87,430 $160,355 $87,430 $160,355 $16
 F-11 

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

2

($1

Model Run 17 18 19 20 21 22 57 58 59 60 61 62 8

NOx Stringency Option NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NSStringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 20MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High HMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes YLARGE ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $5,886 $6,950 $9,953 $11,017 $9,973 $11,217 $6,082 $7,146 $9,294 $10,358 $9,314 $10,558 $ 3% $4,444 $5,461 $6,725 $7,742 $6,744 $7,934 $4,289 $5,193 $6,030 $6,934 $6,047 $7,104 $ 7% $3,290 $4,253 $4,421 $5,384 $4,439 $5,565 $2,835 $3,570 $3,651 $4,385 $3,665 $4,523 $ 9% $2,897 $3,835 $3,717 $4,654 $3,734 $4,831 $2,346 $3,010 $2,918 $3,582 $2,930 $3,707 $Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $7,553 $8,617 $11,620 $12,684 $11,640 $12,884 $8,798 $9,862 $12,010 $13,074 $12,030 $13,274 $1 3% $5,925 $6,943 $8,206 $9,224 $8,225 $9,415 $6,433 $7,337 $8,174 $9,078 $8,191 $9,248 $ 7% $4,562 $5,525 $5,693 $6,655 $5,711 $6,837 $4,416 $5,151 $5,231 $5,966 $5,245 $6,104 $ 9% $4,078 $5,016 $4,898 $5,836 $4,915 $6,012 $3,709 $4,373 $4,281 $4,945 $4,293 $5,070 $Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.7383 0.7383 0.7383 0.7383 0.7383 0.7383 0 3% 0.5199 0.5199 0.5199 0.5199 0.5199 0.5199 0.4010 0.4010 0.4010 0.4010 0.4010 0.4010 0 7% 0.2578 0.2578 0.2578 0.2578 0.2578 0.2578 0.1884 0.1884 0.1884 0.1884 0.1884 0.1884 0 9% 0.1868 0.1868 0.1868 0.1868 0.1868 0.1868 0.1323 0.1323 0.1323 0.1323 0.1323 0.1323 0

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $6,352 $7,500 $10,741 $11,889 $10,762 $12,105 $8,238 $9,679 $12,589 $14,030 $12,616 $14,301 $1

 3% $8,548 $10,506 $12,935 $14,893 $12,972 $15,262 $10,696 $12,952 $15,038 $17,293 $15,080 $17,717 $1 7% $12,763 $16,498 $17,149 $20,884 $17,220 $21,587 $15,047 $18,945 $19,373 $23,271 $19,447 $24,005 $1 9% $15,509 $20,529 $19,896 $24,916 $19,990 $25,861 $17,726 $22,746 $22,044 $27,064 $22,139 $28,009 $2

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $8,151 $9,299 $12,540 $13,688 $12,562 $13,904 $11,917 $13,358 $16,268 $17,709 $16,295 $17,980 $1

 3% $11,397 $13,355 $15,785 $17,743 $15,822 $18,111 $16,043 $18,299 $20,385 $22,640 $20,427 $23,064 $1 7% $17,697 $21,432 $22,084 $25,819 $22,154 $26,522 $23,436 $27,334 $27,762 $31,660 $27,835 $32,394 $2 9% $21,832 $26,852 $26,218 $31,238 $26,313 $32,184 $28,025 $33,045 $32,344 $37,363 $32,438 $38,308 $3
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix F 

F-12

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

2

($1

Model Run 17 18 19 20 21 22 57 58 59 60 61 62 8

NOx Stringency Option NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NS07 NSStringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 20MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High HMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes YCOMBINED SMALL AND LARGE ENGINE GROUP 

Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $6,017 $7,195 $10,084 $11,262 $10,104 $11,462 $6,209 $7,387 $9,421 $10,599 $9,441 $10,799 $ 3% $4,558 $5,684 $6,839 $7,965 $6,858 $8,157 $4,389 $5,390 $6,130 $7,131 $6,147 $7,301 $ 7% $3,391 $4,456 $4,522 $5,586 $4,540 $5,768 $2,913 $3,725 $3,728 $4,540 $3,742 $4,678 $ 9% $2,993 $4,030 $3,813 $4,850 $3,830 $5,026 $2,414 $3,149 $2,986 $3,721 $2,998 $3,846 $Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $7,705 $8,883 $11,772 $12,950 $11,792 $13,150 $8,956 $10,134 $12,168 $13,346 $12,188 $13,546 $1 3% $6,058 $7,185 $8,339 $9,466 $8,358 $9,657 $6,558 $7,559 $8,299 $9,300 $8,316 $9,470 $ 7% $4,679 $5,744 $5,810 $6,875 $5,828 $7,056 $4,512 $5,324 $5,327 $6,139 $5,341 $6,277 $ 9% $4,189 $5,226 $5,009 $6,046 $5,027 $6,222 $3,793 $4,528 $4,365 $5,099 $4,377 $5,224 $Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.9331 0.9331 0.9331 0.9331 0.9331 0.9331 0.7436 0.7436 0.7436 0.7436 0.7436 0.7436 0 3% 0.5235 0.5235 0.5235 0.5235 0.5235 0.5235 0.4039 0.4039 0.4039 0.4039 0.4039 0.4039 0 7% 0.2596 0.2596 0.2596 0.2596 0.2596 0.2596 0.1898 0.1898 0.1898 0.1898 0.1898 0.1898 0 9% 0.1881 0.1881 0.1881 0.1881 0.1881 0.1881 0.1333 0.1333 0.1333 0.1333 0.1333 0.1333 0

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $6,448 $7,711 $10,807 $12,070 $10,829 $12,284 $8,350 $9,934 $12,670 $14,254 $12,696 $14,523 $1

 3% $8,707 $10,859 $13,065 $15,216 $13,101 $15,582 $10,869 $13,346 $15,179 $17,657 $15,221 $18,078 $1

7% $13,063 $17,166 $17,420 $21,522 $17,490 $22,221 $15,345 $19,625 $19,640 $23,920 $19,713 $24,649 $2

 9% $15,914 $21,426 $20,270 $25,783 $20,364 $26,721 $18,112 $23,622 $22,399 $27,909 $22,493 $28,847 $2

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $8,258 $9,521 $12,617 $13,879 $12,638 $14,094 $12,044 $13,629 $16,364 $17,948 $16,391 $18,217 $1

 3% $11,573 $13,725 $15,930 $18,082 $15,967 $18,448 $16,238 $18,716 $20,548 $23,026 $20,591 $23,447 $1 7% $18,026 $22,129 $22,383 $26,485 $22,453 $27,183 $23,769 $28,049 $28,064 $32,344 $28,137 $33,073 $2 9% $22,273 $27,785 $26,629 $32,142 $26,723 $33,081 $28,454 $33,964 $32,741 $38,251 $32,835 $39,190 $3
 F-13 

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 23 24 25 26 27 28 63 64 65 66 67 68 

NOx Stringency Option NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes SMALL ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $71 $163 $71 $163 $71 $163 $69 $161 $69 $161 $69 $161  3% $61 $148 $61 $148 $61 $148 $54 $131 $54 $131 $54 $131  7% $53 $133 $53 $133 $53 $133 $41 $102 $41 $102 $41 $102  9% $51 $127 $51 $127 $51 $127 $36 $90 $36 $90 $36 $90 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $82 $174 $82 $174 $82 $174 $84 $176 $84 $176 $84 $176  3% $71 $157 $71 $157 $71 $157 $66 $143 $66 $143 $66 $143  7% $62 $141 $62 $141 $62 $141 $50 $111 $50 $111 $50 $111  9% $58 $135 $58 $135 $58 $135 $44 $98 $44 $98 $44 $98 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.0091 0.0091 0.0091 0.0091 0.0091 0.0091  3% 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0050 0.0050 0.0050 0.0050 0.0050 0.0050  7% 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0023 0.0023 0.0023 0.0023 0.0023 0.0023  9% 0.0026 0.0026 0.0026 0.0026 0.0026 0.0026 0.0016 0.0016 0.0016 0.0016 0.0016 0.0016 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $5,823 $13,339 $5,823 $13,339 $5,823 $13,339 $7,551 $17,664 $7,551 $17,664 $7,551 $17,664 

 3% $8,833 $21,263 $8,833 $21,263 $8,833 $21,263 $10,863 $26,323 $10,863 $26,323 $10,863 $26,323  7% $15,276 $38,030 $15,276 $38,030 $15,276 $38,030 $17,463 $43,382 $17,463 $43,382 $17,463 $43,382  9% $19,842 $49,798 $19,842 $49,798 $19,842 $49,798 $21,929 $54,818 $21,929 $54,818 $21,929 $54,818 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $6,701 $14,217 $6,701 $14,217 $6,701 $14,217 $9,283 $19,395 $9,283 $19,395 $9,283 $19,395 

 3% $10,208 $22,638 $10,208 $22,638 $10,208 $22,638 $13,370 $28,830 $13,370 $28,830 $13,370 $28,830  7% $17,620 $40,375 $17,620 $40,375 $17,620 $40,375 $21,376 $47,295 $21,376 $47,295 $21,376 $47,295  9% $22,822 $52,777 $22,822 $52,777 $22,822 $52,777 $26,722 $59,611 $26,722 $59,611 $26,722 $59,611 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix F 

F-14

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 23 24 25 26 27 28 63 64 65 66 67 68 

NOx Stringency Option NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes LARGE ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $9,888 $12,816 $26,790 $29,718 $26,860 $30,418 $10,036 $12,964 $23,224 $26,152 $23,294 $26,852  3% $7,453 $10,254 $16,960 $19,761 $17,027 $20,431 $7,066 $9,555 $14,226 $16,715 $14,286 $17,311  7% $5,518 $8,169 $10,250 $12,900 $10,313 $13,535 $4,670 $6,692 $8,033 $10,055 $8,081 $10,539  9% $4,863 $7,445 $8,299 $10,881 $8,361 $11,499 $3,866 $5,695 $6,226 $8,055 $6,270 $8,493 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $12,787 $15,715 $29,690 $32,618 $29,760 $33,318 $14,781 $17,709 $27,969 $30,897 $28,039 $31,597  3% $10,029 $12,831 $19,536 $22,337 $19,603 $23,007 $10,811 $13,300 $17,972 $20,461 $18,032 $21,056 

7% $7,730 $10,381 $12,462 $15,112 $12,525 $15,747 $7,432 $9,454 $10,794 $12,816 $10,843 $13,300 

 9% $6,917 $9,499 $10,353 $12,935 $10,415 $13,553 $6,248 $8,077 $8,608 $10,437 $8,651 $10,874 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824  3% 0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.5334 0.5334 0.5334 0.5334 0.5334 0.5334  7% 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506  9% 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.1760 0.1760 0.1760 0.1760 0.1760 0.1760 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $8,027 $10,404 $21,749 $24,126 $21,806 $24,694 $10,215 $13,195 $23,639 $26,619 $23,710 $27,331 

 3% $10,788 $14,843 $24,549 $28,604 $24,646 $29,574 $13,245 $17,911 $26,669 $31,335 $26,780 $32,450  7% $16,115 $23,856 $29,934 $37,674 $30,119 $39,526 $18,636 $26,704 $32,053 $40,121 $32,246 $42,052  9% $19,601 $30,008 $33,451 $43,857 $33,700 $46,348 $21,969 $32,362 $35,380 $45,773 $35,629 $48,261 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $10,381 $12,758 $24,103 $26,480 $24,160 $27,048 $15,045 $18,025 $28,468 $31,449 $28,540 $32,161 

 3% $14,517 $18,572 $28,278 $32,333 $28,375 $33,302 $20,267 $24,933 $33,690 $38,356 $33,802 $39,472 

7% $22,575 $30,316 $36,394 $44,134 $36,579 $45,986 $29,656 $37,724 $43,072 $51,141 $43,266 $53,072 

 9% $27,881 $38,288 $41,730 $52,137 $41,979 $54,628 $35,501 $45,894 $48,912 $59,305 $49,161 $61,793 
 F-15 

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 23 24 25 26 27 28 63 64 65 66 67 68 

NOx Stringency Option NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes COMBINED SMALL AND LARGE ENGINE GROUP 

Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $9,959 $12,979 $26,862 $29,882 $26,932 $30,582 $10,104 $13,124 $23,292 $26,312 $23,362 $27,012  3% $7,514 $10,402 $17,021 $19,909 $17,088 $20,579 $7,120 $9,685 $14,280 $16,846 $14,340 $17,441  7% $5,572 $8,302 $10,303 $13,033 $10,367 $13,668 $4,711 $6,794 $8,074 $10,156 $8,122 $10,640  9% $4,914 $7,572 $8,350 $11,008 $8,411 $11,626 $3,902 $5,786 $6,262 $8,146 $6,306 $8,583 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $12,869 $15,889 $29,772 $32,792 $29,842 $33,492 $14,865 $17,885 $28,053 $31,073 $28,123 $31,773  3% $10,100 $12,988 $19,607 $22,495 $19,674 $23,165 $10,878 $13,443 $18,038 $20,604 $18,098 $21,199  7% $7,792 $10,522 $12,524 $15,254 $12,587 $15,888 $7,482 $9,565 $10,844 $12,927 $10,893 $13,411  9% $6,975 $9,634 $10,411 $13,070 $10,473 $13,688 $6,292 $8,175 $8,652 $10,535 $8,695 $10,973 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 1.2440 1.2440 1.2440 1.2440 1.2440 1.2440 0.9915 0.9915 0.9915 0.9915 0.9915 0.9915  3% 0.6978 0.6978 0.6978 0.6978 0.6978 0.6978 0.5384 0.5384 0.5384 0.5384 0.5384 0.5384  7% 0.3459 0.3459 0.3459 0.3459 0.3459 0.3459 0.2530 0.2530 0.2530 0.2530 0.2530 0.2530  9% 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.1776 0.1776 0.1776 0.1776 0.1776 0.1776 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $8,006 $10,433 $21,592 $24,020 $21,649 $24,583 $10,190 $13,236 $23,491 $26,537 $23,562 $27,243 

 3% $10,769 $14,907 $24,392 $28,531 $24,489 $29,491 $13,223 $17,989 $26,523 $31,288 $26,634 $32,394  7% $16,107 $23,999 $29,786 $37,678 $29,969 $39,511 $18,625 $26,859 $31,918 $40,151 $32,109 $42,064  9% $19,604 $30,210 $33,312 $43,918 $33,558 $46,383 $21,969 $32,571 $35,255 $45,857 $35,502 $48,322 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $10,345 $12,773 $23,932 $26,359 $23,988 $26,922 $14,992 $18,038 $28,292 $31,338 $28,363 $32,044 

 3% $14,474 $18,612 $28,098 $32,236 $28,194 $33,196 $20,204 $24,969 $33,503 $38,269 $33,614 $39,374  7% $22,525 $30,418 $36,204 $44,096 $36,387 $45,930 $29,579 $37,813 $42,872 $51,105 $43,063 $53,018  9% $27,829 $38,435 $41,537 $52,143 $41,784 $54,609 $35,420 $46,022 $48,706 $59,308 $48,952 $61,773 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix F 

F-16

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 29 30 31 32 33 34 69 70 71 72 73 74 

NOx Stringency Option NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes SMALL ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $263 $477 $263 $477 $263 $477 $254 $468 $254 $468 $254 $468  3% $228 $433 $228 $433 $228 $433 $201 $382 $201 $382 $201 $382  7% $201 $394 $201 $394 $201 $394 $154 $301 $154 $301 $154 $301  9% $192 $379 $192 $379 $192 $379 $137 $269 $137 $269 $137 $269 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $305 $519 $305 $519 $305 $519 $317 $531 $317 $531 $317 $531  3% $266 $471 $266 $471 $266 $471 $251 $432 $251 $432 $251 $432 

7% $234 $426 $234 $426 $234 $426 $191 $338 $191 $338 $191 $338 

 9% $222 $409 $222 $409 $222 $409 $168 $301 $168 $301 $168 $301 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.0161 0.0161 0.0161 0.0161 0.0161 0.0161 0.0123 0.0123 0.0123 0.0123 0.0123 0.0123  3% 0.0091 0.0091 0.0091 0.0091 0.0091 0.0091 0.0067 0.0067 0.0067 0.0067 0.0067 0.0067  7% 0.0046 0.0046 0.0046 0.0046 0.0046 0.0046 0.0032 0.0032 0.0032 0.0032 0.0032 0.0032  9% 0.0033 0.0033 0.0033 0.0033 0.0033 0.0033 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $16,337 $29,651 $16,337 $29,651 $16,337 $29,651 $20,715 $38,176 $20,715 $38,176 $20,715 $38,176 

 3% $25,136 $47,612 $25,136 $47,612 $25,136 $47,612 $30,079 $57,246 $30,079 $57,246 $30,079 $57,246  7% $44,140 $86,417 $44,140 $86,417 $44,140 $86,417 $48,805 $95,399 $48,805 $95,399 $48,805 $95,399  9% $57,707 $114,120 $57,707 $114,120 $57,707 $114,120 $61,513 $121,293 $61,513 $121,293 $61,513 $121,293 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $18,997 $32,311 $18,997 $32,311 $18,997 $32,311 $25,855 $43,317 $25,855 $43,317 $25,855 $43,317 

 3% $29,316 $51,792 $29,316 $51,792 $29,316 $51,792 $37,524 $64,691 $37,524 $64,691 $37,524 $64,691 

7% $51,297 $93,574 $51,297 $93,574 $51,297 $93,574 $60,430 $107,024 $60,430 $107,024 $60,430 $107,024 

 9% $66,825 $123,238 $66,825 $123,238 $66,825 $123,238 $75,752 $135,532 $75,752 $135,532 $75,752 $135,532 
 F-17 

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 29 30 31 32 33 34 69 70 71 72 73 74 

NOx Stringency Option NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes LARGE ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $9,890 $12,818 $26,792 $29,720 $26,862 $30,420 $10,038 $12,966 $23,226 $26,154 $23,296 $26,854  3% $7,454 $10,256 $16,961 $19,763 $17,028 $20,433 $7,067 $9,556 $14,228 $16,717 $14,287 $17,312  7% $5,519 $8,170 $10,251 $12,901 $10,314 $13,536 $4,671 $6,694 $8,034 $10,056 $8,082 $10,540  9% $4,864 $7,446 $8,300 $10,882 $8,362 $11,500 $3,867 $5,696 $6,227 $8,056 $6,271 $8,494 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $12,789 $15,717 $29,691 $32,619 $29,761 $33,319 $14,783 $17,711 $27,971 $30,899 $28,041 $31,599  3% $10,031 $12,832 $19,537 $22,339 $19,604 $23,009 $10,813 $13,302 $17,974 $20,463 $18,033 $21,058 

7% $7,731 $10,382 $12,463 $15,113 $12,526 $15,748 $7,433 $9,455 $10,795 $12,818 $10,844 $13,301 

 9% $6,918 $9,500 $10,354 $12,936 $10,416 $13,554 $6,248 $8,077 $8,608 $10,438 $8,652 $10,875 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824  3% 0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.5334 0.5334 0.5334 0.5334 0.5334 0.5334  7% 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506  9% 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.1760 0.1760 0.1760 0.1760 0.1760 0.1760 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $8,029 $10,406 $21,750 $24,127 $21,807 $24,696 $10,217 $13,197 $23,641 $26,621 $23,712 $27,333 

 3% $10,790 $14,845 $24,551 $28,606 $24,648 $29,576 $13,248 $17,914 $26,672 $31,337 $26,783 $32,453  7% $16,119 $23,859 $29,937 $37,677 $30,122 $39,530 $18,640 $26,709 $32,057 $40,126 $32,250 $42,056  9% $19,605 $30,012 $33,455 $43,861 $33,704 $46,352 $21,974 $32,368 $35,385 $45,779 $35,634 $48,266 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $10,382 $12,759 $24,104 $26,481 $24,161 $27,049 $15,047 $18,027 $28,470 $31,451 $28,542 $32,163 

 3% $14,519 $18,574 $28,280 $32,335 $28,377 $33,304 $20,270 $24,936 $33,693 $38,359 $33,805 $39,475 

7% $22,579 $30,319 $36,397 $44,137 $36,582 $45,990 $29,660 $37,729 $43,077 $51,145 $43,270 $53,076 

 9% $27,885 $38,292 $41,734 $52,141 $41,983 $54,632 $35,506 $45,900 $48,917 $59,311 $49,166 $61,798 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix F 

F-18

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

Model Run 29 30 31 32 33 34 69 70 71 72 73 74 

NOx Stringency Option NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes COMBINED SMALL AND LARGE ENGINE GROUP 

Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $10,152 $13,294 $27,054 $30,196 $27,124 $30,896 $10,292 $13,434 $23,480 $26,622 $23,550 $27,322  3% $7,683 $10,688 $17,190 $20,195 $17,257 $20,865 $7,268 $9,939 $14,429 $17,099 $14,488 $17,695 

7% $5,720 $8,564 $10,452 $13,295 $10,516 $13,929 $4,825 $6,994 $8,188 $10,357 $8,236 $10,841 

 9% $5,056 $7,825 $8,491 $11,261 $8,553 $11,879 $4,004 $5,965 $6,364 $8,325 $6,408 $8,763 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $13,094 $16,236 $29,997 $33,139 $30,067 $33,839 $15,100 $18,242 $28,288 $31,430 $28,358 $32,130  3% $10,297 $13,303 $19,804 $22,809 $19,871 $23,479 $11,064 $13,734 $18,224 $20,895 $18,284 $21,490  7% $7,965 $10,808 $12,697 $15,540 $12,760 $16,174 $7,624 $9,793 $10,986 $13,155 $11,034 $13,639  9% $7,140 $9,909 $10,576 $13,345 $10,638 $13,963 $6,417 $8,378 $8,777 $10,738 $8,820 $11,176 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 1.2479 1.2479 1.2479 1.2479 1.2479 1.2479 0.9947 0.9947 0.9947 0.9947 0.9947 0.9947  3% 0.6999 0.6999 0.6999 0.6999 0.6999 0.6999 0.5401 0.5401 0.5401 0.5401 0.5401 0.5401  7% 0.3470 0.3470 0.3470 0.3470 0.3470 0.3470 0.2538 0.2538 0.2538 0.2538 0.2538 0.2538  9% 0.2514 0.2514 0.2514 0.2514 0.2514 0.2514 0.1782 0.1782 0.1782 0.1782 0.1782 0.1782 

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $8,136 $10,653 $21,681 $24,198 $21,737 $24,759 $10,346 $13,505 $23,605 $26,763 $23,675 $27,467 

 3% $10,976 $15,270 $24,558 $28,852 $24,654 $29,810 $13,456 $18,401 $26,714 $31,658 $26,824 $32,760 

7% $16,487 $24,681 $30,123 $38,317 $30,306 $40,145 $19,015 $27,563 $32,265 $40,813 $32,456 $42,719 

 9% $20,109 $31,123 $33,775 $44,789 $34,021 $47,247 $22,467 $33,476 $35,711 $46,720 $35,957 $49,176 

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $10,493 $13,011 $24,038 $26,556 $24,094 $27,117 $15,180 $18,339 $28,438 $31,597 $28,509 $32,301 

 3% $14,711 $19,005 $28,293 $32,587 $28,389 $33,544 $20,484 $25,428 $33,741 $38,685 $33,851 $39,787  7% $22,956 $31,150 $36,593 $44,787 $36,775 $46,615 $30,043 $38,590 $43,293 $51,840 $43,483 $53,747  9% $28,399 $39,414 $42,066 $53,080 $42,311 $55,538 $36,008 $47,017 $49,252 $60,260 $49,497 $62,717 
 F-19 

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

4

($1

Model Run 35 36 37 38 39 40 75 76 77 78 79 80 8

NOx Stringency Option NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NSStringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 20MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High HMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes YSMALL ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $264 $492 $264 $492 $264 $492 $255 $483 $255 $483 $255 $483  3% $229 $446 $229 $446 $229 $446 $202 $395 $202 $395 $202 $395  7% $202 $406 $202 $406 $202 $406 $155 $310 $155 $310 $155 $310  9% $192 $391 $192 $391 $192 $391 $137 $278 $137 $278 $137 $278 Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $306 $534 $306 $534 $306 $534 $318 $546 $318 $546 $318 $546  3% $267 $484 $267 $484 $267 $484 $251 $444 $251 $444 $251 $444  7% $235 $439 $235 $439 $235 $439 $191 $347 $191 $347 $191 $347  9% $223 $421 $223 $421 $223 $421 $169 $309 $169 $309 $169 $309 Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.0170 0.0170 0.0170 0.0170 0.0170 0.0170 0.0130 0.0130 0.0130 0.0130 0.0130 0.0130 0 3% 0.0096 0.0096 0.0096 0.0096 0.0096 0.0096 0.0071 0.0071 0.0071 0.0071 0.0071 0.0071 0

7% 0.0048 0.0048 0.0048 0.0048 0.0048 0.0048 0.0034 0.0034 0.0034 0.0034 0.0034 0.0034 0

 9% 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0024 0.0024 0.0024 0.0024 0.0024 0.0024 0

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $15,484 $28,878 $15,484 $28,878 $15,484 $28,878 $19,547 $37,034 $19,547 $37,034 $19,547 $37,034 $2

 3% $23,842 $46,407 $23,842 $46,407 $23,842 $46,407 $28,388 $55,527 $28,388 $55,527 $28,388 $55,527 $4 7% $41,904 $84,249 $41,904 $84,249 $41,904 $84,249 $46,064 $92,463 $46,064 $92,463 $46,064 $92,463 $8 9% $54,808 $111,251 $54,808 $111,251 $54,808 $111,251 $58,058 $117,497 $58,058 $117,497 $58,058 $117,497 $11

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $17,995 $31,389 $17,995 $31,389 $17,995 $31,389 $24,379 $41,866 $24,379 $41,866 $24,379 $41,866 $3

 3% $27,790 $50,355 $27,790 $50,355 $27,790 $50,355 $35,387 $62,525 $35,387 $62,525 $35,387 $62,525 $5 7% $48,672 $91,016 $48,672 $91,016 $48,672 $91,016 $56,992 $103,391 $56,992 $103,391 $56,992 $103,391 $9 9% $63,433 $119,876 $63,433 $119,876 $63,433 $119,876 $71,443 $130,883 $71,443 $130,883 $71,443 $130,883 $11
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix F 

F-20

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

4

($1

Model Run 35 36 37 38 39 40 75 76 77 78 79 80 8

NOx Stringency Option NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NSStringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 20MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High HMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes YLARGE ENGINE GROUP Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $9,894 $12,822 $26,797 $29,725 $26,867 $30,425 $10,044 $12,972 $23,232 $26,160 $23,302 $26,860 $2 3% $7,458 $10,260 $16,965 $19,767 $17,032 $20,437 $7,072 $9,561 $14,233 $16,722 $14,292 $17,317 $1 7% $5,523 $8,173 $10,254 $12,905 $10,318 $13,539 $4,675 $6,697 $8,037 $10,059 $8,086 $10,543 $1 9% $4,867 $7,449 $8,303 $10,885 $8,365 $11,503 $3,870 $5,699 $6,230 $8,059 $6,274 $8,497 $1Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $12,794 $15,722 $29,696 $32,624 $29,766 $33,324 $14,789 $17,717 $27,977 $30,905 $28,047 $31,605 $2 3% $10,035 $12,836 $19,541 $22,343 $19,608 $23,013 $10,818 $13,307 $17,978 $20,467 $18,038 $21,063 $1 7% $7,735 $10,385 $12,466 $15,117 $12,530 $15,751 $7,436 $9,458 $10,799 $12,821 $10,847 $13,305 $1 9% $6,921 $9,503 $10,357 $12,939 $10,419 $13,557 $6,251 $8,080 $8,611 $10,440 $8,655 $10,878 $1Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 1 3% 0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.5334 0.5334 0.5334 0.5334 0.5334 0.5334 0 7% 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0 9% 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.1760 0.1760 0.1760 0.1760 0.1760 0.1760 0

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $8,032 $10,409 $21,754 $24,131 $21,811 $24,699 $10,223 $13,204 $23,647 $26,627 $23,718 $27,340 $1

 3% $10,796 $14,851 $24,557 $28,612 $24,654 $29,581 $13,257 $17,923 $26,680 $31,346 $26,792 $32,462 $2 7% $16,128 $23,869 $29,946 $37,687 $30,132 $39,539 $18,653 $26,722 $32,070 $40,139 $32,263 $42,070 $3 9% $19,617 $30,024 $33,466 $43,873 $33,715 $46,364 $21,990 $32,383 $35,401 $45,794 $35,650 $48,282 $4

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $10,386 $12,763 $24,108 $26,485 $24,165 $27,053 $15,053 $18,033 $28,477 $31,457 $28,548 $32,170 $2

 3% $14,525 $18,580 $28,286 $32,340 $28,383 $33,310 $20,279 $24,945 $33,702 $38,368 $33,814 $39,484 $2 7% $22,588 $30,329 $36,406 $44,147 $36,592 $45,999 $29,673 $37,742 $43,090 $51,158 $43,283 $53,089 $4 9% $27,897 $38,303 $41,746 $52,153 $41,995 $54,643 $35,522 $45,915 $48,933 $59,326 $49,182 $61,814 $4
 F-21 

CAEP/8 NOX Stringency ResultsTime Horizon: 2009-2036 Costs in Millions of 2009 Dollars 

Benefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOX

4

($1

Model Run 35 36 37 38 39 40 75 76 77 78 79 80 8

NOx Stringency Option NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NS10 NSStringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 20MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High HMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes YCOMBINED SMALL AND LARGE ENGINE GROUP 

Discount 

rate 

Costs, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $10,158 $13,314 $27,060 $30,216 $27,130 $30,916 $10,299 $13,455 $23,487 $26,643 $23,557 $27,343 $2 3% $7,688 $10,706 $17,195 $20,213 $17,262 $20,883 $7,274 $9,956 $14,434 $17,116 $14,494 $17,711 $1 7% $5,725 $8,579 $10,456 $13,311 $10,520 $13,945 $4,829 $7,007 $8,192 $10,369 $8,240 $10,853 $1 9% $5,059 $7,839 $8,495 $11,275 $8,557 $11,893 $4,007 $5,976 $6,367 $8,336 $6,411 $8,774 $1Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $13,100 $16,256 $30,002 $33,158 $30,072 $33,858 $15,107 $18,263 $28,295 $31,451 $28,365 $32,151 $2 3% $10,302 $13,320 $19,809 $22,827 $19,876 $23,497 $11,069 $13,751 $18,230 $20,912 $18,289 $21,507 $1 7% $7,969 $10,824 $12,701 $15,555 $12,764 $16,190 $7,628 $9,805 $10,990 $13,168 $11,038 $13,652 $1 9% $7,144 $9,924 $10,580 $13,360 $10,641 $13,978 $6,420 $8,389 $8,780 $10,749 $8,824 $11,187 $1Benefits - NOX Reduction [2009-2036] 0% 1.2488 1.2488 1.2488 1.2488 1.2488 1.2488 0.9955 0.9955 0.9955 0.9955 0.9955 0.9955 1 3% 0.7005 0.7005 0.7005 0.7005 0.7005 0.7005 0.5406 0.5406 0.5406 0.5406 0.5406 0.5406 0

7% 0.3472 0.3472 0.3472 0.3472 0.3472 0.3472 0.2540 0.2540 0.2540 0.2540 0.2540 0.2540 0

 9% 0.2516 0.2516 0.2516 0.2516 0.2516 0.2516 0.1783 0.1783 0.1783 0.1783 0.1783 0.1783 0

Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $8,134 $10,661 $21,669 $24,196 $21,725 $24,756 $10,345 $13,516 $23,593 $26,764 $23,664 $27,467 $1

 3% $10,975 $15,284 $24,547 $28,856 $24,642 $29,812 $13,456 $18,417 $26,703 $31,664 $26,813 $32,765 $2 7% $16,486 $24,707 $30,112 $38,333 $30,295 $40,160 $19,016 $27,591 $32,255 $40,830 $32,446 $42,735 $3 9% $20,108 $31,158 $33,764 $44,813 $34,010 $47,269 $22,468 $33,511 $35,701 $46,744 $35,947 $49,199 $4

Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $10,490 $13,017 $24,025 $26,552 $24,081 $27,112 $15,175 $18,346 $28,423 $31,593 $28,493 $32,297 $2

 3% $14,707 $19,016 $28,279 $32,588 $28,374 $33,544 $20,478 $25,439 $33,724 $38,686 $33,835 $39,787 $2 7% $22,950 $31,171 $36,577 $44,797 $36,759 $46,624 $30,034 $38,609 $43,274 $51,849 $43,464 $53,754 $4 9% $28,393 $39,442 $42,049 $53,098 $42,294 $55,554 $35,998 $47,041 $49,231 $60,274 $49,476 $62,729 $5

— — — — — — — —
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix G 

APPENDIX G 

CAEP/8 MODTF / FESG DATA HANDOVER 

1. SUMMARY 

1.1 This paper documents the MODTF/FESG inter-group coordination of data handover for the 

CAEP/8 NOx stringency cost effectiveness analysis. It describes the type and format of data required 

from MODTF to be used as input to the FESG NOx Cost Spreadsheet Model (NOx-CSM) to allow FESG 

to complete the cost-effectiveness analysis. 

2. INTRODUCTION 

2.1 As part of the CAEP/8 work programme, MODTF modellers undertook a NOx stringency policy 

assessment in conjunction with FESG. The MODTF responsibility for the assessment was primarily tied 

to the environmental modelling, but close coordination with WG1, WG3 and FESG was essential for 

success. 

2.2 This paper specifically discusses the requirements to ensure a successful MODTF/FESG data 

handoff so that FESG can model the costs and the resulting cost-effectiveness results. The FESG NOx 

Cost Spreadsheet model is designed to work with aggregate global results, with no distinction for region. 

3. FESG NOX STRINGENCY DATA HANDOFF REQUIREMENTS 

3.1 Following is a list of the data requirements outlined by the FESG NOx Stringency Task Group, 

along with a proposed MODTF path forward to meeting these requirements. 

3.1.1 Operating Aircraft – The operating aircraft can be derived from available MODTF data, making 

some reasonable assumptions. The quotient of operating aircraft hours (Item 6 below) and operating 

aircraft cycles (Item 5 below) provides a value of average time per flight, per year, which can easily be 

converted to average time per flight, per day. Average aircraft utilization data used in the FESG forecast 

can be provided which should allow MODTF to determine the total flight time per operating aircraft per 

day (e.g., 14 hours), so that the number of operating aircraft can be determined. Table G.1, at the end of 

this document, provides average annual aircraft utilization by FESG seat group from the FESG central 

forecast. The assumed value can be checked for reasonableness with data from Back Aviation Solutions. 

The final number of operating aircraft can also be checked for reasonableness by comparing with active 

aircraft in the Campbell Hill (CH) and Campbell Hill Extension (CHE) databases. 

3.1.2 Operating Engines – The number of engines for each flight in the MODTF OPERATION_YY 

file (which is derived from the MODTF Common Operations Database for aircraft/engine flights subject 

to NOx stringency, i.e., >26.7kN) is included in the MODTF AIRCRAFT_MAPPING file. By joining the 

number of engines with the number of flights, the operating engines can be determined as in 1 above for 

operating aircraft. 

3.1.3 New Aircraft Delivered – The new aircraft delivered will be determined in a manner similar to 

that proposed above in 1 for operating aircraft, but using the flights from the aircraft replacement file 

(which will be made up entirely of delivered aircraft), along with the operating hours associated with 

those aircraft as determined in 6 below. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix G 

G-2

3.1.4 New Engines Delivered – The number of engines for each flight in the MODTF 

AIRCRAFT_REPLACEMENT file is included in the MODTF AIRCRAFT_MAPPING file. By joining 

the number of engines with the number of replaced flights in the computation of new aircraft delivered in 

3 above, the new engines delivered will be determined. 

3.1.5 Operating Aircraft Cycles – This variable will be determined directly from the flights in the 

MODTF OPERATION_YY file, assuming one takeoff/landing in the file is equivalent to one operating 

aircraft cycle. The values from OPERATION_YY will be scaled by a factor of 52/6 to provide annual 

cycles, since MODTF is conducting its analysis based on 6 weeks of operations (e.g., Approximately 30 

million annual cycles in 2006). 

3.1.6 Operating Engine Cycles – The number of engines for each flight in the MODTF 

OPERATION_YY file (see 5 above) is included in the MODTF AIRCRAFT_MAPPING file. By joining 

the number of engines with the number of flights, the operating engine cycles will be determined. As with 

5 above, the number of engine cycles will be scaled by a factor of 52/6 to annualize the value. 

3.1.7 Operating Aircraft Block Hours – This variable will be determined by using accumulated block 

time as provided in the trajectories file distributed to GHG modellers. As with 5 above, the operating 

aircraft block hours will be scaled by a factor of 52/6 to annualize the value. 

3.1.8 Operating Engine Block Hours – The number of engines for each flight in the MODTF 

OPERATION_YY file is included in the MODTF AIRCRAFT_MAPPING file. By joining the number of 

engines with the operating aircraft hours, the operating engine block hours will be determined. As with 5 

above, the number of engine block hours will be scaled by a factor of 52/6 to annualize the value. 

3.1.9 Total Fuel Consumption with penalty, where applicable (Mega Tonnes) – This variable will come 

directly from the GHG model(s) and represent the gate-to-gate fuel consumption. The fuel consumption 

with penalty includes any fuel burn penalty associated with the technology response assumptions (e.g. 

MS1, MS2, MS3, where MS3 has a 0 to 0.5% fuel burn penalty) 

3.1.10 Total Fuel Consumption without penalty (Mega Tonnes) – This variable will come directly from 

the GHG model(s) and represent the gate-to-gate fuel consumption, assuming no fuel burn penalty for any 

of the technology responses. 

3.1.11 Total LTO NOx Generated (Mega Tonnes) – This variable will come directly from the LAQ 

Modellers. 

3.1.12 Noise (population exposed): FESG will proceed based on input from WG1 that no noise penalty 

is expected even for the MS3 engines that require a cycle change. However, for these engines, which 

comprise 10% of the MS3 engines, estimates would need to be made for additional costs that 

manufacturers may incur in order to eliminate the noise penalty caused by the cycle change. WG1's 

recommended approach to FESG is to conduct a cost sensitivity study on whether an incremental 

development cost of either US$10 million or $100 million (3.3% or 33% of MS3 “typical” cost of 

US$300 million provided by WG3) would make a difference in the ranking of the stringency scenarios. 

No data is required from MODTF for this sensitivity test. 

3.1.13 Lost Revenue – The lost revenue results from an aircraft payload / range detriment caused by the 

incremental fuel burn for aircraft with engines requiring a MS3 technology insertion to meet the NOx 

stringency scenario. FESG will estimate the lost revenue which will require some additional operational 

data from MODTF and choice of financial, airplane payload impact and utilization assumptions by FESG. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix G 

a) FESG will choose assumptions for the following: 

1) Revenue yield ($ per revenue passenger kilometer and $ per revenue tonne kilometer) 

2) Aircraft payload impact ( off loaded passengers or kilograms of cargo per trip) 

3) Utilization – percent of trips operating at the maximum take off weight (MTOW) and 

maximum range limits, where payload would have to be offloaded for any increase in 

mission fuel burn. 

b) Additional operational data required from MODTF to calculate lost revenue: 

1) Operating Aircraft Cycles for impacted aircraft – This data input will be up to 4 values. 

Each data input represents the aggregated aircraft cycles for a group of the aircraft 

impacted by a technology response that includes a fuel burn penalty, such as MS3. This 

data input should be determined for single-aisle aircraft powered by large engines and 

twin-aisle aircraft powered by the large engine group. If the small engine group required 

a technology response that included a fuel burn penalty, then similar data would be 

required for the small engine group. The aircraft/engine combinations from the Aircraft 

Growth and Replacement database which will require MS3 technology insertion are 

shown in Table G.2 at the end of this paper. 

2) For future analyses, there may be a requirement to have a further disaggregation of the 

data required between passenger and cargo aircraft. For CAEP/8, only passenger aircraft 

operations were available. 

3) To determine the weighted average maximum distance for each subgroup impacted by a 

revenue loss due to increased fuel burn (e.g. Single-aisle aircraft powered by the large 

engine group), FESG will require a further breakdown by aircraft / engine combination. 

See Table G.2. For each aircraft / engine combination, the following data is required: 

i. Operating_Aircraft_Cycles – as defined previously 

ii. Operating_Engine_Cycles – as defined previously 

iii. Max_Distance_(Nautical_Miles) – From the MODTF operations file, extract the 

longest route distance flown by each aircraft / engine in Table G.2. 

3.2 The FESG NOX Cost Spreadsheet Model was developed to accept inputs of data grouped into 

similar categories. For example, the data for each data field listed in 2.1 for all small engines requiring a 

MS1 technology response would be grouped into the MS1-SE data category. This data would be required 

for selected forecast years. The NOX Cost Spreadsheet Model would interpolate for the intermediate 

years. Description of other data requirements: 

3.2.1 Forecast years: The above data will be provided for 2006, 2012, 2016, 2026 and 2036 

3.2.2 Data subgroups: For each of the years listed in 2.2.1, the data will be grouped into 5 categories 

(Note: For 2006 all data will be grouped in the UNS category): UNS, Db4SYMS, MS1-SE, MS1-LE, 

MS2-SE, MS2-LE, MS3-SE and MS3-LE. 

3.2.2.1 UNS – Fleet and operations Unaffected by NOx Stringency 

G-3
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix G 

G-4

3.2.2.2 Db4SYMS – Fleet and operations that do not meet a NOx stringency level, but have been 

delivered before (b4) the start year of NOx stringency. To assist in the calculation of incremental spare 

engine requirements and lost asset (resale) value, FESG needs the Db4SYMS category broken down into 

small and large engines and by “theoretical” MS1, MS2 or MS3 category, since these engines would have 

required a technology response if they were delivered after the implementation year of NOX stringency. 

The Db4SYMS sub-fleet will be used in the estimation of the cost of incremental spare engines due to the 

loss of engine commonality or interchangeability in some cases from the resulting NOx technology 

response 

3.2.2.3 MS1-SE – Fleet and operations requiring a MS1 technology response for the small engine group. 

3.2.2.4 MS1-LE – Fleet and operations requiring a MS1 technology response for the large engine group. 

3.2.2.5 MS2-SE – Fleet and operations requiring a MS2 technology response for the small engine group. 

3.2.2.6 MS2-LE – Fleet and operations requiring a MS2 technology response for the large engine group. 

3.2.2.7 MS3-SE – Fleet and operations requiring a MS3 technology response for the small engine group. 

3.2.2.8 MS3-LE – Fleet and operations requiring a MS3 technology response for the large engine group. 

[Note: For the CAEP/8 NOX stringency analysis, there was no requirement for a MS3 technology 

response for any of the engines in the small engine category, however, the capability was built into the 

model to allow for such a response] 

3.3 For each stringency and forecast year, data for each sub-fleet data group (i.e. UNS, Db4SYMS, 

MS1-SE, MS1-LE, MS2-SE, MS2-LE, MS3-SE and MS3-LE) can be determined directly by joining the 

OPERATION_XX table with the WG3 large and small engine stringency tables. 
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix G 

Table G.1 

Average Annual Utilization for FESG “Base Case” Forecast 

Average Annual Utilization – Number of flights per year

Seat Category 2006 2016 2026 2036

< 20 seats 1,391 1,586 1,843 2,088

20-50 1,618 1,741 1,909 1,977

51-100 1,616 1,814 1,965 2,028

101-150 1,627 1,622 1,643 1,677

151-210 1,395 1,485 1,561 1,599

211-300 849 943 1,110 1,224

301-400 744 774 912 1,144

401-500 758 840 843 1,071

501-600 1,266 924 982 1,036

601-650 1,560 1,229 1,169

World 1,444 1,496 1,559 1,599

Table G.2 

Aircraft with engines requiring MS3 Technology insertion 

for certain NOX Stringency Options 

Engine Group Engine Family Aircraft 

Large Engine Group 

GE90-115B 

777-300ER 

777-200LR 

PW4160 Talon II 

A330-200 

A330-300 

Trent 700 

A330-200 

A330-300 

PW4x62 

747-400 

767-200/200ER 

767-300/300ER 

Trent 500 

A340-500 

A340-600 

Small Engine Group 

PW6120A A318 

V2500A5 

A319 

A320 

A321 

G-5
CAEP/8-IP/14 

Appendix G 

G-6

Table G.3 – CAEP/8 NOx Stringency Scenarios 

NOx Stringency 

Scenario 

Small Engines Large Engines 

[26.7 kN / 89 kN Foo]26,27 OPR28>30 Slope29

1 -5% / -5% -5% 2 

2 -10% / -10% -10% 2.2 

3 -10% / -10% -10% 2 

4 -5% / -15% -15% 2.2 

5 -15% / -15% -15% 2.2 

6 -5% / -15% -15% 2 

7 -15% / -15% -15% 2 

8 -10% / -20% -20% 2.2 

9 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2 

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2 

— END — 

 

26 Foo – Thrust rating. For engine emissions purposes, the maximum power/thrust available for takeoff under normal operating conditions at ISA 

(International Standard Atmosphere) sea level static conditions without the use of water injection as approved by the certificating authority. 

Thrust is expressed in kilonewtons (kN). 27 Incremental stringency scenarios defined for small engines with thrust ratings (Foo) comprised between 26.7 kN and 89 kN. 28 OPR – Overall Engine Pressure Ratio. The engine pressure ratio is defined as the ratio of the mean total pressure at the last compressor 

discharge plane of the compressor to the mean total pressure at the compressor entry plane, when the engine is developing its takeoff thrust 

rating (in ISA sea-level static conditions). 29 Slope of the line of the NOx stringency scenarios at engine pressure ratio (PR) greater than 30.