JL a « ^ o 5b i 2l |

E©@[ni©ml]© Projections

" to 1990

U.S. D e p a rtm e n t of Labor 

B ureau of Labor S ta tis tic s 

M arch 1982

B ulletin 2121

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i©®n©mie Projections

t© 1990

U.S. D e p a rtm e n t of Labor 

R aym ond J. D onovan, S e cre ta ry

B ureau of Labor S ta tis tic s 

Ja ne t L. N orw o o d, C o m m issio n e r 

M arch 1982

B u lletin 2121

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This bulletin presents the latest Bureau of Labor

Statistics projections of the U.S. economy to 1990. It

consists of five articles from the Monthly Labor Review

and supplementary tables containing additional data

frequently requested.

These projections are part of the ongoing program of

the Bureau of Labor Statistics for study of alternative

patterns of economic growth. For the historical inputoutput data upon which the projections are based, see

Time Series Data for Input-Output Industries, Bulletin

2018 (1979). A bulletin on the methodology is scheduled

for publication at a later date.

Material in this publication is in the public domain

and may, with appropriate credit, be reproduced

without permission.

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Contents

Page

New economic proj ections through 1990—an overview.......................................................... . 1

Brief summary of the projections............................................................................................ 1

Employment and output............................................................................................ 2

Occupational data........................................ 4

Impact of assumptions............................................................................................................. 5

Evaluation of past proj ections................................................................................................. 5

Table 1. Actual and projected civilian labor force based on three different growth

paths, selected years, 1965-90............................. ................................... 2

The U. S. economy through 1990—an update............................................................................... 10

Major assumptions................................................................................................................... 10

Aggregate dem and................................................................................................................... 13

Employment and hours........................................................................................................... 17

Tables:

1. Federal Government receipts and expenditures, 1980, and projected to 1985 and

1990, on a National Income Accounts basis................................................. ........... 12

2. Gross national product by major component, 1955, 1968, 1973, 1980, and

projected to 1985 and 1990.............................................................................. . 14

3. Labor force, employment, productivity, and gross national product, 1955, 1968,

1973,1980, and projected to 1985 and 1990 .............................................................. 18

The outlook for industry output and employment through 1990................................................. 20

Summary of employment trends........................................................................................ 20

Characteristics of the 1990 economy...................................................................................... 21

Energy assumptions....................................................................................................... 21

Final demand trends........................................................................................... <................... 22

Industry output..................................................................................................................... 24

Industry employment............................................................................................... 26

Previous projections for 1990.................................................................................................. 32

Tables:

1. U.S. energy supply by source, actual and projected, selected years,

1965-90........................................................................................................................... 22

2. Gross product originating by major sector, actual and projected,

selected years, 1959-90.................................................... 25

3. Low-trend proj ected output changes for selected industries, 1979-90......... . 26

4. Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90............. . 27

5. Employment by major sector, actual and projected, selected years,

1959-90........................................................ 30

6. Average annual percent change in employment by major sector, actual

and projected, selected years, 1959-90........................................................................ 31

7. Low-trend projected employment changes for selected industries,

1979-90........................................................................................................................... 32

8. Comparison of previous and current employment projections for 1990 ................ 32

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Page

Occupational employment growth through 1990.......................................................................... 34

Alternative scenarios................................................................................................................ 35

Growth among white-collar groups......................................................................................... 35

Growth among blue-collar groups.......................................................................................... 38

Service w orkers........................................................................................................................ 39

Farm workers............................................................................................................................ 39

Detailed occupations................................................................................................................ 40

New data base........................................................................................................................... 40

Differences among surveys...................................................................................................... 46

Chart 1. Job growth for major occupational categories under alternative

economic projections, 1978-90 ........................................................................... 36

Tables:

1. Employment by major occupational group, actual 1978 and alternative

projections for 1990......................................................................................................... 37

2. Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more,

actual 1978 and proj ected 1990................................................................................... 41

The 1995 labor force: a first lo o k ................................................................................................... 48

Women provide most growth.................................................................................................. 49

The changing labor force ,1979-85.......................................................................................... 50

An experienced labor force, 1985-95 ................................................................ 54

How the projections were revised............................................................................................... 54

Possible consequences.................................................................................................................. 56

Tables:

1. Civilian labor force based on three different growth paths to 1995............................ 49

2. Annual rate of growth of the civilian labor force by sex,age, and race,

1975-79 and projected to 1995 ........................................................... 

3. Civilian noninstitutional population by age, sex, and race, 1975-79 and

projected to 1995 .............................................................................................................. 51

4. Civilian labor force participation rate by sex, age, and race, 1975-79

and projected to 1995......................................................................................... 52

5. Civilian labor force by sex, age, and race, 1975-79 and projected to 1995 ................. 53

6. Labor force distribution by sex, age, and race, 1975-79 and projected to

1995.................................................................................................................................... 55

7. Comparison of the current and previous projections for 1985 and 1990 .................... 55

Appendixes: Supplementary tables on—

A. Gross national product and components, selected historical and projected years,

1963 to 1990................................................................................................................. 59

B. Domestic output, employment, and hours, selected historical and projected

years, 1959 to 1990............................................................................................. 117

C. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race,

1982 to 2000............................................................................................ 1

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Mew economic projections 

through 1990—an overview

BLS has updated its 1978-79 projections for the

decade of the 1980's to reflect recent social, political

and economic developments; three scenarios, each based

on a unique set of assumptions about the future,

provide a range of possible growth paths

Ronald E. Kutscher

The economic and employment outlook described in the 

following articles was constructed as a regular part of 

the Bureau’s medium-term projections program. This 

program includes a series of closely related projections 

encompassing the labor force by age, sex, and race;1 

gross national product projections, in total and by major demand and income components; industry output 

and employment; and occupational requirements, overall and by industry. Estimates are derived through the 

use of an integrated econometric framework, and are 

updated by BLS every 2 years.

The following articles are based on three alternative 

projections to 1990. These scenarios cover a number of 

alternative assumptions yielding a reasonably broad 

span of employment and GNP levels for 1990. It is likely, but of course not certain, that the actual course of 

economic and employment development will fall within 

such a wide band. Also, while alternative assumptions 

are used for a few of the more important variables, it 

was not possible to produce alternatives for all variables. This would quickly have multiplied the number 

of projections confronting the user, and rapidly 

expanded the workload entailed in their completion. 

The three alternatives do not conveniently fall into 

“high” “medium,” or “low” categories. Therefore, users 

of the projections will find it necessary to review the

Ronald E. Kutscher is Assistant Commissioner for Economic Growth

and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

underlying assumptions to determine which of the three 

scenarios seems most appropriate for their purposes.

Brief summary of the projections

Labor force. The Bureau of Labor Statistics developed 

three labor force growth scenarios for the next decade: 

a high-growth projection, which assumes rapid growth 

in the labor force participation of women and the convergence of participation rates for black men and white 

men under age 65; a middle-growth scenario with the 

work force expansion attributable mostly to women; 

and a low-growth path with only moderate increases in 

the participation of women and with the continuing divergence in male participation between races.2 (See table 

1.)

Some salient elements of the labor force projections:

® Because of past decline in birth rates, the labor force 

will grow at decreasing rates throughout the next 

decade.

0 Women’s labor force participation is expected to 

continue to increase. Women should account for 2 of 

every 3 additions to the labor force over the next decade.

® While the overall birth rate for the United States has 

been declining since about 1960, this has not been 

true for blacks and other races. Therefore, representation of these groups in the labor force will increase 

over the next decade. During 1985-90, their rates of 

entry will be at least double that for whites, and

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Table 1. Actual and projected civilian labor force based on three different growth paths, selected years, 1965-10S0

Growth path

Actual

labor force

(in millions)

Projected

labor force

(in millions)

Annual percent change Participation rate

1965

to

1975

1975

to

1979

1979

to

1985

1985

to

1990

Actual Projected

1385 1975 1979 1935 1990 1965 1975 1979 1985 1990

Total .................................................................................. 74.5 92.6 102.9 2.2 2.7 58.9 61.2 63.7

Middle g ro w th ......................................................... 115.0 122.4 1.9 1.3 66.5 67.9

High growth ............................................................ 118.3 128.4 2.4 1.6 68.4 71.1

Low g ro w th .............................................................. 117.7 117.4 1.4 1.0 64.6 65.2

M e n .................................................................................... 48.3 55.6 59.5 1.4 1.7 80.7 77.9 77.9

Middle g ro w th ......................................................... 63.6 65.9 1.1 .7 77.7 77.2

High growth ............................................................ 64.8 68.2 1.4 1.0 79.2 79.9

Low g ro w th .............................................................. 62.5 63.9 .8 .4 76.3 74.9

Women ............................................................................. 26.2 43.4 43.4 3.5 4.1 39.3 51.0 51.0

Middle g ro w th ......................................................... 51.4 56.5 2.9 1.9 56.5 59.6

High growth ............................................................ 53.4 59.9 3.5 2.3 58.7 63.2

Low g ro w th .............................................................. 49.2 53.5 2.1 1.7 54.1 56.4

could be even higher under one of the alternative 

projections developed.

® The number of young people age 16 to 24 in the labor force will fall by at least 1.5 million over the decade, reflecting the past decline in birth rates.

® The number of people age 55 and over in the labor 

force will not increase as much as the 25 to 54 category, largely because of trends toward early retirement.

Economic projections. The three alternative projections 

for the economy as a whole used differing assumptions 

for five key variables: (1) fiscal policy, (2) labor force 

growth, (3) productivity growth, (4) the unemployment 

rate, and (5) price levels. Each of the alternative assumptions for these variables and the more significant 

factors considered in arriving at the alternatives are discussed in detail in the subsequent articles. Proper evaluation of the 1990 projections requires careful review of 

these assumptions.

Among the highlights:

G Use of alternative assumptions yields a GNP for 1990 

of between $1.9 and $2.2 trillion (in 1972 dollars), a 

spread of over $270 billion. The 1980-90 real GNP 

average growth is 2.5 percent per year at the low 

end of the alternatives and 3.9 percent at the high 

end.

° The low-path GNP growth projected for the 1980’s is 

roughly consistent with the experience of the 1970’s. 

The high alternative GNP growth rate is closer to the 

path of the 1960’s.

® Among the assumptions used in developing these alternatives, productivity (output per person-hour) 

shows the widest variation. The lowest alternative 

assumes 1980-90 productivity growth of 1.4 percent 

per year. The highest alternative has assumed annual 

growth of 2.6 percent.

® Within GNP, the component of demand most sensitive to the alternative assumptions (particularly 

those related to tax policy) is that for producers’ durable equipment. In the low-path alternative, this 

component increases by 4.7 percent annually over 

the next decade, while in the two high-path scenarios, growth exceeds 8 percent per year. Exports also 

show a large variation among the alternatives.

® The demand category showing the most change from 

recent trends is Federal defense purchases, which under each of the three alternatives are assumed to 

grow at annual rates appreciably greater than in recent years.

® The trend toward a smaller government share of final demand is expected to continue throughout the 

1980’s in the two high-trend alternatives. In the lowtrend projections, the defense purchases component 

of government demand is expected to grow sharply 

in real terms during the early 1980’s, and then slow 

slightly after 1985. Defense purchases are projected 

to stabilize at about 5 percent of GNP over the latter 

half of the decade.

® In the State and local sector, the largest change 

from prior trends is expected in the education field. 

As the baby-boom generation matures, the number 

of school enrollees should decline over most of the 

decade. Thus, growth of educational purchases is 

projected to dampen through 1985, with absolute 

declines thereafter.

Employment and output

Employment. Between 1955 and 1980, the total number 

of jobs3 in the economy increased from 68.7 million to

105.6 million, or by about 1.5 million a year; during 

1973-80, annual job growth exceeded 2 million. Over 

the next decade, major changes in employment are assumed under each of the alternatives discussed in these 

articles. Total employment is expected to increase by an 

average of 1.6 percent— or 2.2 million jobs—each year 

between 1980 and 1985 in the low-growth and hightrend II versions. In the high-trend I version, a higher 

labor force projection, combined with an even more 

rapid decline in the unemployment rate, yields annual 

employment growth of 2.4 percent between 1980 and

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Uses of projections

A wide range of persons and organizations use the bls

projections. Many are interested in only a particular element, while others use all or most of the projection components.

Labor force estimates. The U.S. Department of Labor,

Congress, and the Congressional Budget Office use the labor force projections for analyses in which the future demographic composition of the work force is an important

consideration. The Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census of the U.S. Department of Commerce

use the detailed labor force estimates for their own projections and analyses. Other executive branch agencies use

these data chiefly in eeo studies. In nearly all of the States,

bls labor force projections provide the framework for developing State labor force projections needed for planning

purposes.

Private users include market researchers, corporate planners, and others who build macro-models or estimate recruitment needs. And international agencies are supplied

the data for information and research.

Projections for the overall economy and by industry. These

estimates and their underlying data bases are used by Federal agencies in preparing budget estimates or employment

analyses, or as a framework for more detailed models of

particular interest to their departments. The latter include

projections of the energy situation; environmental developments; housing, transportation, or defense requirements;

and capital availability. Also, the U.S. Department of

Housing and Urban Development regularly uses the projections in The Housing Report o f the President, as does the

Labor Department’s Employment and Training Administration in The Employment and Training Report o f the

President.

Among international users of the overall economic projections are international agencies which monitor the future

prospects of the U.S. economy, those interested in research

methods, and those specializing in unique historical aspects

of the Nation’s economic development, such as capital

stock by industry, time series on output and employment

by industry, or input-output data.

State and local governments, area planning councils, corporations, outside research organizations, and universities

also use the bls data for planning purposes, as input to

more specific models by locality or industry, or as a means

to evaluate projections developed by themselves or by others.

Occupational projections. This information is used in preparing the Bureau’s Occupational Outlook Handbook, a tool

for career guidance; education planning; policy and program analysis, evaluation, and development by government

and private organizations; and research conducted by other

organizations. The Survey of Career Information Systems

in Secondary Schools, a National Institute of Education

study conducted by the Education Testing Service of

Princeton, N.J., revealed the Handbook to be the most frequently chosen resource of counselors and secondary

school students. The Handbook is used primarily in high

schools, but is also of value to elementary schools, colleges, vocational schools, public employment offices, placement services for members of the Armed Forces returning

to civilian life, organizations which help the economically

disadvantaged, and vocational rehabilitation facilities.

National occupational employment data and projections

are used at all levels of government, and by others, to formulate education plans. Included are such agencies as the

National Science Foundation, and the Administration on

Aging, which provide Federal funds for specialized education and training to ensure themselves of an adequate supply of qualified workers. At times such agencies have

contracted with the Bureau to do special studies in these

areas. Conversely, the Office of Management and Budget

has relied on BLS occupational projections to evaluate the

training plans of other agencies. And educational institutions and State agencies engaged in planning college-level

programs also use the data.

The national data are an input to State and area projections. Such subnational estimates are being used by government bodies to plan vocational education and CETA

training requirements. In fact, nearly all States currently

develop their own occupational projections based on a national industry-occupation matrix.

BLS data are an integral part of other types of occupational research conducted by private organizations, nonprofit organizations, universities, and government agencies.

The industry-occupation matrix provides the needed occupational projections for industry scenarios developed by

others. Organizations which prepare vocational guidance

materials also rely upon bls research underlying the Occupational Outlook Handbook.

Private employers use the Bureau’s occupational projections for a variety of planning functions, including the

construction of personnel policies which anticipate possible

labor shortages. And, producers of machinery operated by

workers in specific occupations may find the industry-occupation matrix a valuable tool for identifying potential

product markets.

the individual elements of the projections— labor

force, gnp, industry output and employment, and occupational requirements— may also be integrated into a consistent analytical framework which makes possible use of the

entire system. A set of analyses recently prepared for the

National Science Foundation relied on this approach to determine the implications of increasing defense expenditures

and synthetic energy production for the supply of and demand for scientists and engineers. (See Science and Engineering Education for the 1980’s and Beyond (Washington,

National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of

Education, 1980)).

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1985, or slightly fewer than 2.7 million jobs a year.

In all alternatives, the rate of employment growth 

slows in the latter half of the decade, to 1.4, 1.9, and

1.5 percent, respectively, for the low, high-trend I, and 

high-trend II models. This reflects the projected slowdown in labor force growth after 1985.

Further important highlights:

° State and local government employment is expected 

to grow less rapidly than total employment, largely 

as a result of contraction in public education.

G As in the past, the “other services” sector is 

expected to experience the fastest employment 

growth. By 1990, “other service” industries will account for over 22 percent of all jobs in the economy 

in each of the three alternative scenarios. Leading 

the advance among service industries will be health 

care.

° The largest number of new jobs projected for any 

sector over the next decade will be in the trade sector, primarily because of its initial large size. Between 5 and 7.2 million new jobs are projected for 

wholesale and retail establishments between 1979 

and 1990.

® Manufacturing jobs will grow by 0.8 percent a year 

during 1979-90 in the low-trend version and 1.6 percent in high-trend I, slower than the rates projected 

for total jobs but faster than recent growth in the 

sector. The turnaround in the rate of manufacturing 

job formation will be more pronounced for durable 

goods manufacturing than for non durables, reflecting assumptions of strong demand for consumer durables, defense hardware, and for producers’ durable 

equipment, especially in the high-trend versions.

° Five of the 10 industries with the greatest projected 

rates of employment loss are in the nondurable manufacturing sector, reflecting either falling demand or 

rapid productivity growth.

Output. Projections of final demand by industry were 

multiplied by an input-output table to yield projections 

of the domestic output needed for each industry to meet 

that final demand. This analysis indicates:

° Agricultural output will continue to decline in relative importance throughout the next decade, reflecting slow growth in food purchases. This slowdown 

will affect almost all of the food industries and indirectly, the agricultural industries.

° Although the nondurable goods manufacturing sector is expected to show only moderate overall 

growth, several of its component industries should 

experience faster-than-average output growth. These 

include the chemical products, drags, apparel, and 

printing and publishing industries.

° Among specific industries in the durable manufacturing sector likely to enjoy substantial output 

growth are computers; optical equipment; construction, mining, and oilfield machinery; typewriters and 

other office machines; electronic components; material handling equipment; photographic equipment; and 

medical and dental instruments.

° Historically, the services sector has been increasing 

its share of total private output, but during the 

1980’s, its growth should approach that of the private economy as a whole, keeping its share constant.

° Output of the mining sector is expected to halt its 

historical decline as a share of the total private economy, as the expected rapid increase in coal production outweighs minimal output growth in crude oil 

production and absolute declines in copper mining 

and nonferrous ores mining.

Occupational date

The more important occupational trends:

® The shares of total employment accounted for by 

white-collar jobs and blue-collar jobs do not change 

substantially over the projected period under any of 

the alternative projections. The white-collar share increases from 49.8 percent in 1978 to between 50.6 

and 50.9 percent by 1990, and the blue-collar share 

changes from 31.8 percent in 1978 to between 32 

and 31.5 percent in 1990.

° Service occupations continue to be the fastest growing major occupational category and should account 

for almost 16 percent of all jobs in 1990.

° Job growth in blue-collar occupations is affected relatively more by differences among the three alternative scenarios than growth in other occupational 

categories. Blue-collar occupations are sensitive to 

high-trend I assumptions because they are concentrated in manufacturing industries, and the demand 

for manufactured goods is relatively greater in this 

version of the economy. Demand for manufactured 

goods is also greater in the high-trend II scenario, 

but the need for additional blue-collar workers is 

moderated by assumed higher productivity gains.

° Over the past two decades, the professional and 

technical category has been one of the fastest growing occupational groups. Although employment is 

projected to continue to increase faster than employment in all occupations in each of the alternative 

scenarios, the differential rate of growth is narrowed.

® Employment of managers and administrators is projected to grow somewhat more slowly than overall 

employment during 1978-90 in each scenario.

° Employment of clerical workers is projected to grow 

faster than the average rate of employment growth 

in each of the alternative versions. Only the number 

of service workers is expected to grow faster.

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° Employment in the craft and kindred worker group 

increases at about the average rate for all occupations in each of the scenarios. Most of this growth is 

expected before 1985.

Impact of assumptions

A review of the sensitivity of the projections to 

changes in the assumptions revealed that changes, especially in tax policy, showed the largest impact on the 

producer durable demand component of GNP, the durable goods manufacturing industries, and a group of 

blue-collar occupations principally found in the durable 

manufacturing industries. The results here are very consistent throughout the durable goods sector. However, 

it would clearly not be warranted from these results to 

assume that the same sector, industries, and occupations would be heavily impacted by changes in other 

sets of assumptions. The expectation would be that 

these changes would be felt by differing combinations of 

industries and occupations.

Evaluatiom of past projections

A regular part of the BLS program is the evaluation 

of projections when the target year has been reached. 

These reviews provide the BLS projections staff with insights into the causes of differences between projected 

and actual values, such as unwarranted assumptions, errors in historical data, or methodological problems. 

They also give users an idea of the uncertainties attached to any projections. A brief discussion of the results of these evaluations follows:

Labor force. All of the projections made by BLS in the 

1952-70 period underestimated the actual labor force 

(age 14 and over) in 1975.4 All projections also 

underestimated the actual 1970 labor force, although 

the 1956 and 1959 estimates were close. For the target 

years of 1960 and 1965, however, BLS was reasonably 

accurate, and the misses fell both below and above the 

true levels.

As in previous years, the labor force projections 

made in 1973 were based on the extrapolation of past 

trends in work force participation. The 1973 projection 

called for a civilian labor force (age 16 and over) of

99.8 million in 1980 and 110.6 million in 1990. By 

1975, however, it was evident that underestimates could 

again be expected. The participation rate of women was 

projected to be 45.5 percent in 1990, but by 1975 the 

rate had already hit 46.3 percent, and in 1976 it reached

47.3 percent. The rate of men also was predicted to 

change very little. By 1980, it was expected to be 78.7 

percent and in both 1985 and 1990, 79.1 percent. But 

by 1976, the male civilian labor force participation rate 

had already dropped to 77.5 percent.

b l s revised these projections in 1976. Although the

general principle of extrapolating long-term trends in 

work activity was retained, the methodology was modified to reduce the amount of tapering5 applied to the 

projected labor force rates. This had the effect of raising 

the projected rates for women and lowering those for 

men. The combined effect was an increase in the overall 

projection for 1980 of 2 million workers— 2.6 million 

more women and 600,000 fewer men than computed in 

1973.

Economic and industry trends. In the mid-1960’s, the 

Bureau first published projections of gross national 

product, output by industry, and industry employment 

for the year 1970.6The basic model assumed a full employment economy with only 4 percent unemployment. 

Other assumptions were that the Vietnam war would 

have ended and that a housing boom would be underway. Total GNP was calculated from estimates of labor 

force growth, hours of work, and labor productivity.

The projections of GNP and employment were within 

4 percent of the actual levels for 1970. However, errors 

in the distribution of final demand, output for 81 industries, and employment for 74 industries fell within a 

broader range, with most of the larger discrepancies occurring in the smaller sectors. The absolute difference 

between actual and projected employment for each of 

74 different industries averaged 76,800 jobs, or 10.3 percent, but the Bureau correctly anticipated the direction 

of change in 63 of the industries. And, when the errors 

were weighted by employment in each industry, the average absolute difference dropped to 8.1 percent.

The largest source of error in the industry employment data proved to be estimates of employment-output 

ratios or productivity by industry. Second in importance were inaccuracies in the projections of input-output coefficients, while final demand estimates contributed the least to industry employment errors.

For many of the variables used in the BLS

methodology, it is difficult to draw a distinction between those “projected” and those “assumed.” No wellspecified model (except the Houthakker-Taylor model 

for the distribution of personal consumption expenditures) was used for the 1970 projections, and variables 

were in general projected from extrapolation of past 

trends modified to account for expected changes.

Events of 1970 negated the basic assumption of a full 

employment economy. The onset of recession brought 

the average unemployment rate to 5.1 percent, compared with less than 4 percent during the preceding 4 

years. Moreover, military involvement in Vietnam had 

not ended, and the housing boom did not materialize 

until 1971-72. The 1970 downturn undoubtedly distorted the projections in the aggregate as well as at the industry level.

One of the conclusions drawn from the 1970

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evaluation was that, because the BLS projections are for 

the medium term and do not take account of cyclical 

fluctuations, it might be more useful to specify ranges 

for future output and employment. This is particularly 

true for those industries most susceptible to fluctuations, 

such as some durable goods industries or construction.

Another recommendation arising from this review 

was to prepare more alternative scenarios, varying the 

assumptions for each case. Particularly, more accurate 

projections may result from broadening the range of 

values that key exogenous variables can assume. The 

benefits of the review of the 1970 economic and employment projections were such that the procedure became 

a regular part of the projections program.

Projections for the 1975 economy, prepared in 1971, 

were designed to reflect steady medium-term growth 

and could not anticipate the sharp deviation from the

path brought on by the 1974—75 recession.7 Thus, the 

high-productivity, full employment assumptions of the 

1975 projections resulted in a large percentage error in 

“supply gross national product” —the projected level of 

economic resources. This error, in turn, biased the equations of the econometric model used for simulating levels of demand and passed high estimates of final 

demand through the projection process, ultimately 

distorting projected levels of industry employment.

The 1975 evaluation of the projection methodology 

also revealed weakness in the estimation of demand 

components of GNP.8 Equations used to derive the investment and import levels were found to be particularly poor, while those related to personal income, 

personal consumption expeditures, and government purchases performed well. The final demand industry distributions were quite inaccurate, due mainly to

Brief history of Bureau of Labor Statistics projections

In November 1979, BLS projection work, previously

spread among three Bureau organizations, was brought together under the umbrella of the Office of Economic

Growth and Employment Projections. While previous

interoffice efforts had been coordinated, the organizational

change made possible an even closer integration of the projections for various aspects of the economy. The projections in this issue are the first developed after this

organizational change.

Labor force. Over the years, the Bureau has developed projections for each of the major subsets of the current projections. Labor force estimates were first produced in 1959.

Since that time, seven sets of these projections have been

published.

Industry output and employment projections. In 1963, the

Bureau began construction of a medium-term economic

projections model. Incorporating the input-output tables

then being developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis

of the U.S. Department of Commerce, this model was

designed to produce industry output and employment projections 5 to 15 years into the future. Since that time, the

BLS Economic Growth Model has undergone several

changes in response to the need for more accurate and detailed data. Various versions of this model have been used

to develop a series of seven sets of projections.

The current version of the Economic Growth Model is a

system of equations and identities linked at selected points

by various economic, econometric, mathematical, and programming techniques to simulate the U.S. economy. Given

an explicit set of assumed values for certain target variables, this model generates industry output and employment projections. A key feature is the interlinking of inputoutput analysis with other econometric techniques.

Occupational outlook. This facet of the program originated

with a report of the Advisory Committee on Education

appointed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt. In 1938,

the committee recommended the establishment of an occupational outlook service within the Bureau of Labor Statistics to conduct employment studies and provide career

guidance information for individuals and for vocational

counselors and planners. Accordingly, the Occupational

Outlook Service was organized under a specific authorization of the Congress in 1941. Preliminary studies were begun that year, but it was not until after World War II that

the staff was able to focus on the publication of reports for

use in career guidance. In mid-1946, a manual of occupational outlook information was prepared for use in the Veterans Administration counseling and rehabilitation

program.

The first edition of the Occupational Outlook Handbook

was published in 1949 in response to a formal resolution

by the National Vocational Guidance Association and the

requests of other groups and individuals that Congress authorize the development of career guidance information for

sale. The public response was favorable to this first Handbook, and in 1951, the Bureau decided to issue a revised

and enlarged edition, with the backing of the Veterans Administration.

After the end of hostilities in Korea, there was heightened public recognition of the key role of vocational

guidance in channeling workers into essential occupations

and effectively using the Nation’s labor resources. As a result, in 1955, Congress provided continuing authorization

for regular publication of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and related materials. In 1957, the third edition of

the Handbook was published and a companion piece, the

Occupational Outlook Quarterly, was introduced to report

on new occupations and describe changes in the employment situation in established career fields. The 1982-83

Handbook, currently in preparation, will be the 15th edition, and should be available in late spring of 1982. The

projections discussed in this issue of the Review will form

the basis for the new Handbook.

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judgmental error. Projected industry outputs were distorted more by errors in the estimates of final demand 

than by inaccuracies in the input-output table employed 

in the projection process. However, industry productivity factors also were wide of the mark, offsetting the demand error in such a way that relative accuracy in the 

industry employment projections resulted.

Projections of the labor force and employment for 

1975 fell within 4 percent of the realized levels. GNP 

was overestimated by 15.4 percent. Errors for detailed 

industry final demand, output, and employment’ fell 

within a broader range, but, for the most part, the larger percentage errors occurred among the smaller sectors.

Employment was overestimated for three-quarters of 

the industries studied, reflecting the severity of the 1975 

recession. The largest percent errors were recorded for 

the durable manufacturing and mining industries, while 

the largest numerical errors occurred within the construction, trade, and service industries, the three largest 

economic sectors. The absolute difference between actual and projected employment for each of the 71 industries studied averaged 8 percent of total employment for 

these industries.

Total employment for 1975 was overprojected by 

about 3.5 percent, although discrepancies varied widely 

by industry. The overprojection of GNP led to an overestimate of industry outputs; together with the 

misprojection of labor productivity, this resulted in the 

overprojection of total employment.

At the industry level, the average absolute percentage 

error in employment for 71 industries was 14.8 percent; 

when weighted by industry employment shares, the average dropped to 8 percent. This again indicates that 

the larger percentage errors were in the smaller industries. Estimates for more than 40 percent of the industries, accounting for more than two-thirds of employment, were within 10 percent of the actual values. 

The largest single concentration of error was in the construction industry; personal and business services were a 

close second. The third largest source of error was the 

trade sector; although the discrepancy was small, it became important because of the large size of the sector.

The 1975 evaluation differed from the review of the 

1970 projections, chiefly because the macro model was 

not used in the 1970 study. In addition, the 1970 study 

found productivity factors to be the most important in 

explaining errors in projected employment, while the 

1975 study found macro controls to be the major 

source.

Occupational estimates. In 1967, the Division of Occupational Outlook completed an industry-occupation matrix which described the relationship of employment in 

162 occupations and 124 industries during 1960 and

projected these relationships to 1975.9 The primary

data sources for the project were the 1950 and 1960 

censuses and, for industry employment, annual estimates from the BLS establishment surveys from 1947 

onward.

A revision of the 1975 matrix based largely on additional industry data was completed in 1969. Although 

the revision was not published, it is a resource for the 

occupational outlook program, and provides more historical data for evaluating projections. Due to a major 

change in the occupational employment classification 

system beginning with the 1970 census, only 76 of the 

162 detailed occupations were comparable over the 

1960-75 period.

The unforeseen economic downturn of the mid-1970’s 

reduced the accuracy of the occupational projections; 

although the errors were not as great as initially supposed, the target year turned out to be the trough of 

the recession, and the actual unemployment rate was

8.5 percent. Consequently, employment in cyclically 

sensitive occupations, such as craft and operative occupations, generally was overprojected. Employment in 

these two groups had been growing in line with projected trends through 1974, but turned down as economic 

conditions worsened in 1975. Interestingly, underprojections did occur in 3 of the 9 major occupational groups 

despite the recession, and these errors might have been 

somewhat higher if economic conditions in 1975 had 

been as favorable as originally assumed.

The difference between projected and actual employment for the major occupational groups ranged from a 

6.7-percent underestimate for clerical workers to a

9.1-percent overestimate for operatives. The average of 

the absolute percentage difference was 6.1 percent. The 

projections for more detailed occupations were subject 

to much larger error, averaging 20.8-percent off 1975 

employment levels. Again, differences between projected 

and actual employment tended to be smaller for the 

larger worker groups.

Several projection methods that would have been 

simpler than the matrix procedure were explored during 

the 1975 review. Among these, the most successful was 

linear extrapolation of employment trends for each occupation. These extrapolations averaged an absolute

26.2 percent off actual 1975 employment in the 76 detailed occupations, compared with the 20.8-percent error in the matrix projections.

The direction of employment change between 1960 

and 1975 was correctly anticipated for all of the nine 

major occupational groups, although employment in 

five was overprojected. However, the evaluation of 1975 

employment projections for detailed occupations was 

hampered by the previously mentioned change in the 

Census Bureau occupational classification system for the 

1970 census. Beginning in late 1971, the revised system

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was adopted for the Current Population Survey (c p s ),

the primary source of occupational employment data 

between decennial censuses. Largely as a result of this 

classification change, projections for only 76 of the 162 

occupations in the matrix were comparable with 1975 

employment data estimated from the CPS. Differences 

between projected and actual employment in the 76 detailed occupations ranged from a 43-percent understatement for personnel and labor relations workers to a 136- 

percent overestimate for plasterers. The absolute percentage errors for all 76 occupations averaged 20.8 

percent. Two-thirds of the occupations, however, had 

errors lower than the average.

As indicated earlier, this evaluation found projection 

accuracy to be related to the size of employment in an 

occupation. When weighted by employment in each occupation, the average absolute error drops from 20.8 

percent to 14 percent, indicating that projections for the 

largest occupations generally were more accurate. Relatively close estimates for the four occupational categories with more than 1 million workers each in 1975 

contributed substantially to the final results. The following tabulation shows how projection accuracy improved with the size of the worker group:

Number o f workers Number o f Average absolute

in occupations occupations percent error

Total ................... 76 20.8

Less than 50,000 ........... 19 32.4

50,000 to 99,999 ........... 14 20.3

100,000 to 299,999 ____ 17 15.5

300,000 to 599,999 ____ 14 19.8

600,000 and more . . . . 12 11.2

A major objective of the evaluation of the 1975 

occupational projections was to isolate the effects of errors in the matrix elements that determine occupational 

employment in the target year (projected employment 

by industry) on projected occupational staffing patterns 

for each industry (industry-occupation ratios).

Although the occupational projections were off the 

mark for many reasons, including the economic downturn, the 1975 review established that the ratio estimates were a far greater source of error in the 

occupational projections than the estimates of industry 

employment levels. In fact, a simulated matrix based on 

actual 1975 industry employment levels and the estimated ratios produced occupational totals that were no 

more accurate, on average, than the projections, 

suggesting that the quality of the ratios was so poor as 

to negate the effect of perfect industry employment projections.

The ratio estimates were based on scanty data for

trends in the occupational structure of industries. Although the projections were made in the late 1960’s, the 

only comprehensive sources of historical data on ratios 

were the 1950 and 1960 decennial censuses. A long-recognized need for current, detailed data on industry staffing patterns prompted the initiation of the cooperative 

Federal-State program, Occupational Employment Statistics, in 1970.

Continuing analysis of the accuracy of projections is 

an important activity in improving their reliability. 

Thus, evaluation of previous projections has become a 

regular part of the BLS program. Complete employment 

data soon will be available for comparison with the 

1980 industry and occupational projections, and an 

evaluation of the complete set of 1980 projections is 

currently planned.

The Bureau’s policy of updating the medium-term 

scenarios every 2 years also contributes to accuracy. 

The three articles which follow reflect such an update of 

the 1990 GNP, industry output and employment, and 

occupational projections developed in 1978-79.

T h e p r e p a r a t i o n o f e c o n o m i c p r o j e c t i o n s is, to a 

degree, both a science and an art. Thus, misunderstandings may arise between the users, who feel the need for 

exact numbers, and producers, who recognize their inability to predict with such precision. Such conflicts are all the more likely because projections analysts 

generally employ a framework which develops numerical answers to specific questions, and users are inevitably tempted to attribute to those numbers an exactness 

they should not be accorded. The Bureau attempts to 

address this dilemma, in at least a small way, by making clear all of the important assumptions underlying its 

projections, by developing alternative versions which reflect at least some of the uncertainties about the future, 

by evaluating past projections to assist users in appreciating the unpredictable nature of certain future events, 

and by updating the projections on a regular 2-year cycle.

Even so, the Bureau is aware that many uses of the 

projections (see box) require quantitative estimates. It is 

incumbent on users to realize that differing assumptions 

can change the results, that underlying data and methods can cause errors, and that estimates should be carefully reviewed to take into account subsequent 

developments. which could not be anticipated at the 

time the projections were prepared.

A final comment, from Edgar R. Fiedler, on projections, their uncertainties, and their uses: “give them a 

number or give them a date, but never both.”10 □

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FOOTNOTES

' The labor force projections were published earlier. See Howard N

Fullerton, Jr., “The 1995 labor force: a first look,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 11-21.

2 See Fullerton, “The 1995 labor force.”

3 The employment total used in this and the subsequent articles

consists of wage and salary workers, self-employed, and unpaid family

workers.

4 See Paul M. Ryscavage, “BLS labor force projections: a review of

methods and results,” Monthly Labor Review, April 1979, pp. 15-22.

5 Tapering refers to the assumptions and formulations used to move

from the most recent rate of change in labor force participation for a

given age-sex group to a zero rate of change several decades in the future.

6 Valerie A. Personick and Robert A. Sylvester, “Evaluation of BLS

19V0 economic and employment projections,” Monthly Labor Review,

August 1976, pp. 13-16.

Projections of the Post-Vietnam Economy, 1975, Bulletin 1733 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1972).

8 Paul T. Christy and Karen I. Horowitz, “An evaluation of BLS

projections of 1975 output and employment,” Monthly Labor Review,

August 1979, pp. 8-19.

q Evaluations of earlier occupational projections are described in

Sol Swerdloff, “How good were manpower projections for the

1960’s,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1969, pp. 17-22. The article referenced here is Max L. Carey, “Evaluating the 1975 projections

of occupational employment,” Monthly Labor Review, June 1980, pp.

10- 21.

The Bureau’s occupational projections for 1975 were first published

in Occupational Employment Patterns for 1960 and 1975, Bulletin 1599

(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1968). The projections also were presented in a corollary report, Tomorrow's Manpower Needs, Volume IV,

Bulletin 1606 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1969). The projections evaluated in this article were obtained from the latter publication. There

are minor differences in estimates presented in the two publications.

10 Edgar R. Fiedler, “The Three R’s of Economic Forecasting— Irrational, Irrelevant, and Irreverent,” Across the Board, June 1977, pp.

62-63.

Translating projections into action

In some respects the appraisal of forecasts puts a greater burden on 

the policymaker than the original task of forecasting itself. The accuracy of current forecasts is, of course, yet to be determined. Evaluation of the methodology of various forecasts may require technical 

sophistication at least as great as, and perhaps greater than, that of 

the specialist in forecasting. Yet the policymaker is rarely a specialist 

in forecasting techniques, nor is he often an authority on the phenomena being projected. Moreover, for the frequent case in which numerous forecasts of the same trend are available, the selection of a “most 

likely” forecast is in itself an act of forecasting, since the policymaker 

chooses the forecast which reflects assumptions and methods that appear most reasonable to him. The policymaker thus tacitly chooses a 

set of assumptions about the future and methodology for projecting 

the essence of those assumptions.

------------WILLIAM ASCHER

Forecasting: An appraisal for

Policy-Makers and Planners

(Baltimore, Md., The Johns Hopkins 

University Press, 1978), pp. 1-2.

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The US, economy 

through 1990—an update

Revised BLS projections of growth indicate a shift

from government spending to private investment;

the three alternative projections assume a broad range

of values for productivity, inflation, and fiscal policy

N o r m a n C. Sa u n d e r s

In what ways might the U.S. economy expand during 

the 1980’s?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared three 

trend projections of growth for the 1980-90 period, 

updating the two prior scenarios published in 1978 and 

adding a projection of major change in Federal fiscal 

policies.1 The low-trend projection is characterized by 

assumptions of continuing high inflation, low productivity growth, and moderate expansion in real production. 

Alternatively, the high-trend version-! projection assumes marked improvements in both inflation and productivity, greater labor force growth, and commensurately higher real production levels. Finally, the new 

high-trend, versioe-II alternative assumes labor force 

growth consistent with the low-trend, but greater productivity gains and less inflation than in the version-I 

high-trend. None of the alternatives represents an attempt to forecast possible cyclical fluctuations during 

the 1980’s. The three projections are intended to provide a range within which economic growth will most 

likely occur; however, they should not be interpreted as 

being representative of all likelihoods. Hereafter, the 

three scenarios will be referred to as the low-trend, the 

high-I, and the high-II alternatives.

By 1990, real gross national product (g n p) is 

expected to range between $1.9 and $2.2 trillion, with 

civilian employment between 120 and 129 million jobs. 

In all three versions, annual rates of growth in employment begin to slow in the 1980’s but are more than offset by assumed improvements in productivity. Following are projected growth rates, for GNP, disposable 

income, and employment during 1980-85 and 1985—90:

Norman C. Saunders is an economist in the Office of Economic

Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

1980-85 1985-90

Gross national

Low High-I High-II Low High-I High-II

product . . .

Real disposable

2.2 3.8 3.7 2.8 4.0 4.1

income . . . 1.9 3.8 3.7 2.5 4.3 4.6

Employment . 1.5 2.4 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.5

In terms of the real rate of growth, the low-trend projections are comparable to the 1973-80 period when 

real GNP increased at an average rate of 2.4 percent 

and real disposable income grew by 2.5 percent each 

year. Conversely, the two high-trend projections correspond more with the 1955-68 period, when GNP grew 

at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent, while real disposable income was up annually by 3.8 percent.

Major assumptions

Underlying the projections are five major groups of 

assumptions—fiscal, demographic, productivity, unemployment, and prices.2 Other assumptions such as capital discard rates, short- and medium-term interest rates, 

and motor fuel usage are not discussed here. However, 

the impact of the latter is limited to relatively small segments of the projections. An exception is the energy 

area, but because of limitations in the current BLS 

model, neither energy prices nor the availability of 

imported oil play a direct role in the aggregate projections. At the industry level, the consumption of energy 

by type and source is generally consistent with the medium-price projections of the Department of Energy, 

which are discussed elsewhere in this issue.3

Fiscal. It is assumed that personal tax payments will be 

affected in 1981 by a Federal income tax cut ranging 

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lion in the high-I version. In addition, Federal taxes as 

a proportion of personal income are assumed to decline 

throughout the decade. During the 1973-80 period, personal taxes accounted for an average of 11.1 percent of 

personal income, reaching 12.0 percent in 1980. In 

1990, the effective rate declines to 10.6 percent in the 

low-trend projection, and to 8.9 percent in the version I 

high-trend. After 1981, neither scenario anticipates tax 

cuts in specific years. Rather, tax revenues are affected 

smoothly over the entire period by assuming rate reductions in each year. In the high-II version, however, Federal personal effective tax rates are cut 5.0 percent in 

1981, 10.0 percent each year in 1982 and 1983, and, finally, by 5.0 percent in 1984. This results in an effective 

rate of 8.8 percent in 1984. The rate is maintained at 

this level for the remainder of the decade.

The effective tax rate on corporate profits averaged 

approximately 35.0 percent during the 1970’s. In the 

low-trend model, corporate tax policy has been set to 

lower this effective rate to 32.0 percent by 1990, with 

most of the decline occurring in the latter half of the 

decade. In contrast, both high-trend projections reach 

an effective rate of approximately 28.0 percent by 1990, 

with the largest declines occurring early in the decade. 

The declining share of profits allocated to taxes results 

from tax cuts as well as from an increase in investment 

tax credits and more rapid depreciation rates. The major difference between the high trends and the low trend 

lies more in the timing of the tax cuts than in the magnitude.

Indirect business taxes are maintained, in all three 

projections, at a relatively constant share of national income, moving primarily with the inflation rate.

Social insurance contributions are determined primarily by the taxable wage base and by the combined 

employer-employee tax rate. In the low-trend alternative, it is assumed that the provisions of the Social Security Act of 1977 will be maintained throughout the 

decade. This legislation increases the wage base for social security contributions from $21,900 in 1979 to 

$60,300 in 1990, accompanied by an increase in the 

OASDHI tax rate to 15.3 percent by 1990. Under these 

assumptions, social insurance contributions account for 

a constant proportion of national income throughout 

the decade.

Under the act, a 1.0-percentage-point increase in the 

combined employer-employee tax rate is mandated for 

1990 over 1989. The resultant jump in social insurance 

contributions leads to a projected Federal Government 

surplus of $76 billion. Had the tax rate increase not 

been specified for 1990, the surplus would have been 

about $30 to $35 billion in the low-growth alternative.

In the high-I alternative, it is assumed that, after 

1981, the Social Security Act will be amended. The 

wage base in this alternative is assumed to reach

$56,100 in 1990, with a combined tax rate of 14.3 percent. This leads to social insurance contributions accounting for 10.6 percent of national income over the 

first years of the decade. Thereafter, contributions 

decline in share terms, accounting for 10.1 percent of 

national income by 1990.

In the high-II model, the wage base reaches $54,900 

in 1990, with a combined tax rate of 13.4 percent (that 

is, no change in the rate is assumed over the entire decade). In this scenario, Federal social insurance contributions account for 9.4 percent of national income by 

1990.

To summarize the tax assumptions, Federal receipts 

are expected to account for somewhat more than 21.0 

percent of GNP during the first years of the 1980’s in the 

low-trend projection and decline moderately to about

20.0 percent by 1990. The high-I alternative is characterized by revenues accounting for 19.5 percent of GNP

in 1985 and 18.1 percent by 1990. Finally, in the highII model, revenues drop to 18.5 and 17.9 percent of 

GNP in 1985 and 1990, respectively.

The assumed goal for Federal expenditures in the 

three alternatives is to lower expenditures as a proportion of GNP throughout the decade. In the low-trend 

version, Federal purchases of goods and services, excluding employee compensation, are assumed to grow at 

a real rate of 5.5 percent a year between 1980 and 1985 

and at 2.5 percent between 1985 and 1990. In both 

high-trend versions, purchases less compensation increase at a real rate of approximately 5.0 percent in the 

first half of the decade, slowing to a 2.5-percent average 

growth during the 1985-90 period. In all alternatives, it 

has been assumed that real defense expenditures increase by 4.0 to 5.0 percent each year during 1980-85 

and by 2.0 to 3.0 percent during 1985-90.

The three alternatives assume that military forces 

reach 2.129 million by 1985 and remain at that level for 

the remainder of the decade. This level is approximately

27.000 more than in 1980. (The implication is that all 

real increases in defense spending are aimed at providing more materiel, rather than more personnel.) Federal 

civilian employment is assumed to increase by approximately .7 percent, or 13,000 jobs, each year between 

1980 and 1990 in the low-and high-I alternatives. In the 

high-II alternative, rather sharp cuts in Federal civilian 

employment are assumed for the early 1980’s, leaving 

employment at 2.08 million employees in the 1985-90 

period. This is a cut of approximately 100,000 jobs 

from 1980 levels.

Federal transfer payments are comprised of: (1) unemployment insurance benefits; (2) social security; (3) 

Federal civilian employee retirement; (4) military retirement; (5) hospital and supplementary medical insurance; (6) supplemental security income; and (7) all other 

Federal benefit programs. Projections for each category

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are prepared using the expected rate of inflation, estimated changes in recipient population, and a discretionary change which represents real changes in offered 

benefits. Real average benefit payments decline by about 

— .3 percent during 1980-90 in the low-trend scenario. 

In contrast, the high-I projection assumes virtually no 

real growth in average transfer payments in the early 

half of the decade but a relatively strong real growth of 

about 1.5 percent a year during 1985-90. This is based 

on the assumption that the stronger growth in real incomes in this alternative will renew interest in expansion of social welfare programs. The high-II version is 

characterized by sharp cuts in real average benefits of 

about 4.0 percent a year during the 1981-84 period, 

with very little real growth in average benefits after 1984.

Real grants-in-aid to State and local governments are 

assumed to decline over the decade in all projections. 

This assumption reflects declining expenditures of the 

highway trust fund and a phasing out of general revenue-sharing programs. From 1980 to 1990, real grants 

are assumed to decline by 1.9 percent a year in the lowtrend alternative and by 0.9 percent in the two hightrend alternatives. Net jnterest payments and subsidies 

to government enterprises are essentially unchanged in 

real terms throughout the projection period. The effects 

of these assumptions on the national income accounts 

measures of Federal receipts and expenditures are 

shown in table 1.

Demographic assumptions. The primary determinants of 

the demographic data are the level and the age and sex 

distribution of the population. Three projected population series were developed by the Bureau of the Census, 

differing primarily in the assumed fertility rate. The Series-II population projections were used in the economic 

projections, as were the associated Series-B household 

projections.4 The bls middle-growth labor force projection is used in the low-trend and high-II versions, and 

the high-growth labor force projection is used in the 

high-I projection.5

Unemployment and productivity. The unemployment rate 

is viewed as a policy objective. Projected unemployTabS© 1. Federal Government receipts and expenditures,

1980, and projected to 1985, and 1990, on a National

Sneom® Accounts basis

[Current dollars in billions]

R eceipts Percent 

Of GNP

ExpendituresPercent 

o f GNP

Surplus o r 

d eficit

1980 ........................................ 538.9 20.5 601.2 22.9 -6 2 .3

1985 L o w .............................. 978.8 21.1 982.7 21.2 -3 .9

H ig h -I.............................. 921.1 19.5 916.0 19.4 5.1

High-II ........................... 825.5 18.5 817.9 18.3 7.6

1990 L o w ................................ 1,594.4 19.9 1,518.4 19.0 76.0

H ig h -I.............................. 1,431.3 18.1 1,409.3 17.9 21.9

High-II ........................... 1,234.5 17.9 1,186.7 17.2 47.8

ment rates represent possible recovery paths from the 

1980 economic slowdown, and, then, long-run targets

a p p ro a c h in g fu ll-em p lo y m en t. F o llo w in g a re th e assu m ed u n e m p lo y m e n t ra te s, 1981--90:

L o w H ig h -I H ig h -II

1981 .............. ................... 8.1 8.1 7.8

1982 .............. ................... 7.7 7.6 7.2

1983 .............. ................... 7.4 7.0 6.6

1984 .............. ................... 7.2 6.3 6.4

1985 .............. ................... 7.0 5.5 6.0

1986 .............. .................... 6.8 5.1 5.6

1987 .............. ................... 6.6 4.8 5.3

1988 . ______ .................... 6.4 4.5 5.0

1989 .............. ................... 6.2 4.2 4.7

1990 .............. ................... 6.0 4.0 4.5

Some of the post-1985 declines can be ascribed to the 

changing age structure of the labor force. However, continuing real declines are assumed for the entire 1981— 

90 period in the projections.

For the private nonfarm sector, the long-term average 

annual rate of productivity growth was 2.6 percent between 1955 and 1968. Between 1968 and 1973, this rate 

dropped to 2.1 percent annually and even further to .7 

percent during the 1973-80 period. The slowdown in 

productivity growth over the last years has been attributed to many factors, including the influx of new workers into the labor force; slowing in capital accumulation 

per worker; an emphasis on nonproductive types of investment, such as pollution control investment; and the 

remarkable increase in energy prices since 1973.

Quite different assumptions are made about possible 

paths of productivity growth in the alternatives. The 

low-trend projection assumes a continuation of slow 

growth in nonfarm productivity— .9 percent real 

growth each year between 1980 and 1985, and 1.8 percent between 1985 and 1990. In contrast, the high-I 

projection assumes productivity growth of 1.4 percent 

each year during 1980-85 and 2.5 percent for 1985-90. 

The most optimistic assumptions appear in the high-II 

version, with nonfarm output per hour increasing at a

2.2-percent rate each year between 1980-85 and at a

3.0-percent rate during the latter portion of the decade.

Some of the factors which contributed to the productivity slowdown in the 1970’s are expected to improve 

in the coming decade. Members of the postwar baby 

boom will become more experienced and productive 

during the 1980’s. The rapid rate of growth in expenditures for environmental and energy conservation equipment should slow somewhat during the first half of the 

decade, and a slower rate of growth in energy prices 

coupled with smaller increases in the demand for energy 

is expected to have an impact. Finally, policies which 

increase investment incentives should have an impact 

later in the decade. However, some argue that technological breakthrough cannot continue at the rate it did

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during the 1970’s. Others argue that poor productivity 

performance will continue.6 Because these factors are 

difficult to quantify in terms of their impact on future 

productivity changes, the range of possible productivity 

growth has purposefully been kept broad.

Prices. The final major assumption deals with the inflation rate. The key item is the implicit deflator for 

private GNP. Long-term movements of this deflator, 

compared with movements in the Consumer Price Index 

for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, are as 

follows:

Private GNP

deflator CPI

1955-68 ........................................ 2.1 2.0

1968-73 ............. .’........................ 4.6 5.0

1973-80 ........................................ 7.8 9.2

A relatively pessimistic view of inflation possibilities is 

taken in the low-trend alternative. The private GNP deflator is assumed to increase at a 9.2-percent growth 

rate in the 1980-85 period and at an 8.3-percent rate 

during 1985-90. The high-! version assumes that inflation will moderate over the longer run. The 1980-85 

rate of inflation is set at 7.9 percent; it drops to 6.4 percent over the latter half of the projection period. The 

greatest improvement in inflation is assumed to occur in 

the high-II projection as the rate of growth of the private GNP deflator drops to 7.0 percent in the 1980-85 

period, followed by a further decline to a 4.7-percent 

rate between 1985 and 1990.

Prices do not directly affect the determination of real 

GNP in the BLS model, but they do enter into the projections in several important ways. First, wages and interest rates are greatly influenced by inflation. These, in 

turn, affect consumption expenditures and residential investment. Second, prices have an impact on the Federal 

budget. They enter implicitly into the determination of 

various expenditure levels and, on the revenue side, they 

affect personal income taxes because of the progressive 

tax structure. The future movement of prices is quite 

uncertain. The price assumptions used in these projections are a judgment as to the relative strengths of the 

various factors which affect price determination, as well 

as an attempt (as with the productivity assumption) to 

define a relatively broad band around probable future 

price change. The linkage of higher productivity growth 

and lower rates of inflation is, to some extent, an arbitrary decision in that other combinations of assumptions could logically be justified as well.

Aggregate demand

Gross national product consists of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, 

net foreign trade, and government purchases of goods

and services. Total GNP and its various components are 

presented in table 2 in constant 1972 prices for selected 

years from 1955 to 1990. Between 1980 and 1985, lowtrend GNP is projected to increase at an average rate of

2.2 percent each year, roughly the same rate prevalent 

in the 1973-80 period, but below the long-term rate of

3.3 percent between 1955 and 1980. In the high-I and 

high-II versions, GNP is projected to increase by 3.8 and 

3.7 percent, respectively, during 1980-85, well above 

the long-term rate.

After 1985, the growth potential continues to improve as better productivity performance more than offsets slower labor force growth. Low-trend GNP growth 

increases to a 2.8-percent average rate and the hightrend versions to approximately a 4.0-percent rate over 

the last years of the decade.

Although all components of GNP are projected to 

grow more rapidly in the high-trend versions, the major 

difference between these two alternatives and the lowtrend version is in investment. The timing of business 

tax incentives for investment in the low-trend model is 

such that little impact is noticed on plant and equipment investment before the middle of the decade. In the 

high-trend versions, plant and equipment expenditures 

are projected to grow strongly over the entire projection horizon. The other components of demand are also 

projected to exceed long-term trend rates of growth in 

the high-trend versions and to lag behind these historical patterns in the low-trend model.

Consumption. Personal consumption expenditures have 

traditionally accounted for the largest share of final production. In 1955, personal consumption made up about

60.0 percent of real GNP and has steadily increased its 

share to over 63.0 percent in 1980. This trend is projected to end, at least temporarily, in the three projections as the greater emphasis on capital formation 

becomes apparent. By 1990, total personal consumption 

expenditures are expected to account for 61.3 percent of 

GNP in the low-trend projection, 62.0 percent in the 

high-I version, and 62.8 percent in high-II.

The long-term trend toward relatively more expenditures on durables and services and relatively fewer purchases of nondurable goods is projected to continue in 

all three alternatives. In 1955, 13.0 percent of real personal consumption expenditures was accounted for by 

durable goods purchases, which include autos and 

parts, furniture and appliances, and recreational items, 

such as radios, televisions, and sporting goods; by 1980, 

durables accounted for just under 14.5 percent. Purchases of durable goods are projected to increase 3.4 

percent a year between 1980 and 1985 in the low-trend 

projection and by about 6.3 percent a year in both 

high-trend versions. After 1985, such purchases will accelerate to 3.7 percent each year in the low-trend ver13

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sion, and will slow to 5.4 and 5.7 percent, respectively, 

in high-I and high-II versions. Durables purchases in all 

projections are expected to rebound sharply from the 

1980 slowdown, increasing their share of total consumption to about 16.0 percent in 1990 in the low-trend 

version, and to just under-17.0 percent in the high-trend 

alternatives.

As with durables, consumers have allocated an increasing proportion of their incomes to purchases of 

services over the post-World War II period. In 1955, 

services accounted for 40.0 percent of consumption, but 

by 1980 had reached 47.2 percent. This trend is 

expected to continue, as services purchases attain between 48.0 and 49.0 percent of personal consumption 

expenditures in 1990 in the three alternatives.

As families’ real incomes increase, expenditures for necessities such as food, basic clothing, and shelter tend 

to reach saturation levels. Further real income growth 

yields greater amounts of discretionary income for purchasing luxuries. This is one of the reasons for the increases in durable and service purchases relative to 

nondurable expenditures. Nondurable purchases accounted for 47.0 percent of consumer spending in 1955, 

dipping to 38.3 percent by 1980.

Investment. Gross private domestic investment consists

Table 2. Gross national product b y m ajor com ponent, 1955, 1968, 1973, 1980, and pro jected to 1985 and 1990

[1972 dollars in billions]

Actual Projected

Component 1985 1980 1955 1SS8 1973 1980 Low High-I High-II Low High-I High-II

Gross national product ........................................................................ 657.5 1,058.1 1,255.0 1,480.7 1,653.3 1,784.7 1,775.1 1,902.4 2,172.6 2,171.8

Personal consumption expenditures................................................................ 394.1 634.4 768.5 935.1 1,001.0 1,094.5 1,091.3 1,166.5 1,346.0 1,364.0

Gross private domestic investment ................................................................ 103.8 161.6 217.5 203.7 263.6 310.1 309.7 315.8 420.2 422.6

Nonresidential structures ............................................................................. 25.4 42.8 47.4 48.4 46.4 49.3 49.2 55.5 62.4 62.8

Producers’ durable equipm ent..................................................................... 35.9 66.8 90.7 110.0 135.3 163.5 164.8 172.6 240.9 243.5

Residential investment .................................................................................. 34.8 43.1 62.3 48.2 67.6 78.5 77.0 70.9 92.1 91.6

Change in business inventories ................................................................... 7.7 9.0 17.2 -3 .0 14.3 18.8 18.7 16.8 24.8 24.7

Net e x p o rts ........................................................................................................... 7.3 1.9 15.5 52.0 60.8 55.6 49.0 73.4 62.2 37.7

E x p o rts ............................................................................................................. 30.7 61.2 97.3 161.1 202.0 209.7 203.4 246.2 270.3 249.1

Imports ............................................................................................................. 23.4 59.3 81.8 109.1 141.2 154.1 154.4 172.8 208.1 211.4

Government purchases .................................................................................... 152.3 260.2 253.5 290.0 327.9 324.7 324.9 346.9 344.4 347.6

Federal ............................................................................................................. 88.2 128.1 95.9 108.2 128.9 126.6 125.9 140.3 135.3 137.5

D e fense........................................................................................................ ( ’ ) ( ’ ) 68.3 70.9 93.4 91.6 93.7 103.3 98.8 104.1

N ondefense................................................................................................. (') ( ’ ) 27.6 37.2 35.5 35.0 32.2 37.0 36.5 33.4

State and local .............................................................................................. 64.1 132.1 157.6 181.9 199.0 198.1 199.0 206.6 209.1 210.1

Percent distribution

Gross national product ........................................................................ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Personal consumption expenditures. . : ......................................................... 59.9 60.0 61.2 63.2 60.5 61.3 61.5 61.3 62.0 62.8

Gross private domestic investment ...................................................... ,... 15.8 15.3 17.3 13.8 15.9 17.4 17.4 16.6 19.3 19.5

Nonresidential structures ............................................................................. 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9

Producers' durable equipm ent..................................................................... 5.5 6.3 7.2 7.4 8.2 9.2 9.3 9.1 11.1 11.2

Residential investment .................................................................................. 5.3 4.1 5.0 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.3 3.7 4.2 4.2

Change in business inventories ................................................................... 1.2 .9 1.4 - .2 .9 1.1 1.1 .9 1.1 1.1

Net e x p o rts ........................................................................................................... 1.1 .2 1.2 3.5 3.7 3.1 2.8 3.9 2.9 1.7

E x p o rts ............................................................................................................. 4.7 5.8 7.8 10.9 12.2 11.7 11.5 12.9 12.4 11.5

Im p o rts.............................................................................................................. -3 .6 -5 .6 -6 .5 -7 .4 -8 .5 -8 .6 -8 .7 -9.1 -9 .6 -9 .7

Government purchases .................................................................................... 23.2 24.6 20.2 19.6 19.8 18.2 18.3 18.2 15.9 16.0

F e d e ra l............................................................................................................. 13.4 12.1 7.6 7.3 7.8 7.1 7.1 7.4 6.2 6.3

D e fense........................................................................................................ (') (') 5.4 4.8 5.6 5.1 5.3 5.4 4.5 4.8

N ondefense................................................................................................. (') n 2.2 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.5

State and local .............................................................................................. 9.7 12.5 12.6 12.3 12.0 11.1 11.2 10.9 9.6 9.7

Average annual rate of change

1955-68 1988-73 1973-80 1980-85 1985-90

Gross national product ........................................................................ 3.7 3.5 2.4 2.2 3.8 3.7 2.8 4.0 4.1

Personal consumption expenditures................................................................ 3.7 3.9 2.8 1.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 4.2 4.6

Gross private domestic investment ................................................................ 3.5 6.1 - .9 5.3 8.8 8.7 3.7 6.3 6.4

Nonresidential structures ............................................. ........................... 4.1 2.1 .3 - .8 .4 .3 3.6 4.8 5.0

Producers’ durable equipm ent..................................................................... 4.9 6.3 2.8 4.2 8.2 8.4 5.0 8.1 8.1

Residential investment .................................................................................. 1.7 7.6 -3 .6 7.0 10.2 9.8 1.0 3.2 3.5

Change in business inventories ................................................................... 1.2 13.8 ( 2) ( 2) ( 2) (2) 3.3 5.7 5.7

Net e x p o rts ........................................................................................................... -9 .8 52.2 18.9 3.2 1.3 -1 .2 3.8 2.3 -5.1

E x p o rts ............................................................................................................. 5.5 9.7 7.5 4.6 5.4 4.8 4.0 5.2 4.1

Imports ............................................................................................................. 7.4 6.6 4.2 5.3 7.2 7.2 4.1 6.2 6.5

Government purchases .................................................................................... 4.2 -.5 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.1 1.2 1.4

F e d e ra l............................................................................................................. 2.9 -5 .6 1.7 3.6 3.2 3.1 1.7 1.3 1.8

D efense........................................................................................................ ( ’ ) ( ) .5 5.7 5.3 5.7 2.0 1.5 2.1

Nondefense ................................................................................................. ( ’ ) ( ) 4.4 - .9 -1 .2 -2 .8 .8 .8 .7

State and local .............................................................................................. 5.7 3.6 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.8 .8 1.1 1.1

1 Not available. N o t e : Gross national product data reflect the benchmark revisions released in December 1980

2 Not computable. by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

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of (1) purchases of residential structures; (2) investment 

in nonresidential structures; (3) purchases of producers’ 

durable equipment; and (4) changes in inventories of 

businesses. Historically, gross domestic investment has 

accounted for 15.0 to 16.0 percent of GNP. At the same 

time, on a year-over-year basis, it is one of the most 

volatile elements of final output. This is because investment, more than any other component of GNP, represents the anticipations of business for future profits and 

potential growth and, thus, tends to fluctuate rather 

sharply as those expectations change.

For example, in 1975, domestic investment fell to 

$155 billion in real terms (more than $60 billion below 

the 1973 level), a 12.5-percent share of GNP (down from 

more than 17.0 percent in 1973). But, by 1980, investment had recovered and accounted for about 15.0 percent of GNP. Because of its anticipatory role, investment 

is an important key in determining the long-run growth 

potential of the economy. In essence, it represents current commitments to future growth and is an important 

source of productivity gains. In the three alternatives, 

gross investment is expected to grow far more rapidly 

than during the 1970’s. Between 1973 and 1980, gross 

investment declined at an average annual rate of .9 percent. The low-trend model projects an average growth 

rate of 5.3 percent during 1980-90, while the expectations in the high-trend versions are for 8.8-percent annual growth.

The housing sector of the economy is one of the more 

volatile segments of fixed investment expenditures. The 

demand for new housing has been expanding steadily 

throughout the postwar period. The number of households increased by more than 30 million during 1955— 

80, an average annual increase of 2.1 percent, or 1.3 

million new households every year. The rate of new 

household formation has also accelerated, from 2.0 percent in 1955 to 2.7 percent in 1980, not only because of 

the baby-boom bulge, but also because of an increasing 

tendency toward single-person households.

At the same time, the ability of the housing sector to 

meet the demand for new housing is greatly dependent 

on financial considerations, especially the availability of 

credit. Because interest rates and credit availability are 

closely tied to the business cycle, swings in real output 

can have a substantial impact on housing. For example, 

during the 1975 recession, total private housing starts 

dropped more than 43.0 percent from the peak of 2.4 

million in 1972. Real expenditures for residential investment fell by 34.0 percent during the same period.

When the supply and demand considerations are 

combined, it is reasonable to assume that the recessions 

of 1970, 1975, and 1980 have created much pent-up demand for new housing. However, demand for housing 

has been changing. Many families are giving up the 

“American dream” of a single-family home because of

increasing costs and also because of greater interest in 

leisure-time pursuits. The shift toward more energy-efficient, less costly multifamily homes is expected to continue throughout the 1980’s. The rate is difficult to predict, however, and is the major difference between the 

low- and high-trend versions.

A final demographic factor affecting the projection of 

residential investment is the prediction that new household formation will slow dramatically in coming years, 

declining from 2.7 percent in 1980 to 1.9 percent in 

1985 and to 1.6 percent in 1990. Although the slowdown is apparent over the entire decade, the effects are 

not expected to be seen until the latter half because of 

the pent-up demand left over from the recessions of the 

1970’s.

In the low-trend projection, a moderate recovery 

from the 1980 slowdown is expected as real residential 

investment increases at a rate of 7.0 percent between 

1980 and 1985, reaching $67.6 billion in 1985. In both 

high-trend alternatives, a sharp comeback from the 

1980 recession is expected. In the high-I projection, the 

expected rate of growth is 10.2 percent, attaining a level 

of $78.5 billion. The high-II version attains a growth 

rate of 9.8 percent over the five-year period. In all three 

cases, housing starts are expected to rebound to the

2.0-million unit level by 1984 or 1985. The primary reason for less growth in the low-trend alternative is that 

continued high inflation is expected to hasten the shift 

from single-family to multifamily dwellings. Because 

multifamily units usually cost somewhat less than single-family homes, increases in total real expenditures 

will, be lower; In all alternatives, real residential investment expenditures account for between 4.1 and 4.3 percent of GNP in 1985, approximately the share attained 

at the prior peak in the 1977-78 period.

After 1985, the demographic effects become apparent 

as growth in high-trend residential investment falls to 

an annual rate of 3.2 and 3.5 percent between 1985 and 

1990 in versions high-I and high-II. In the low-trend 

model, virtually no growth is anticipated during the latter half of the decade. Annual housing starts are 

expected to decline from about 2.0 million units in 1985 

to between 1.7 and 1.9 million units by 1990.

Between 1955 and .1968, business fixed investment 

grew by 4.6 percent a year. Between 1968 and 1973, 

growth remained virtually the same at 4.7 percent a 

year. During the remainder of the 1970’s, however, 

growth of real business expenditures for plant and 

equipment slowed sharply to a rate of 2.0 percent 

growth in the 1973-80 period. In the low-trend version, 

2.8-percent growth per year is projected for the 1980-85 

period. In other words, the rate of change in business 

investment apparent in the 1970’s will continue for the 

first half of the 1980’s after an initial Upsurge in 1981. 

After 1985, the more representative long-term growth

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rates (4.7 percent) will return, as a result of the impact 

of corporate tax assumptions and increasing corporate 

revenues.

In the high-trend versions, quite different assumptions are made regarding both the timing and intensity 

of fiscal incentives for business investment. Investment 

in plant and equipment is expected to increase by 6.2 

percent a year during 1980-85, then accelerate to 7.3 

percent growth, topping $300 billion in 1990. This component accounts for 14.0 percent of GNP in 1990 in 

both high-trend projections, up from an average of 

about 11.0 percent in the 1970’s. The tax assumptions 

and the resulting impact on business investment are 

based on the growing realization that long-term improvements in productivity growth will depend on new 

plant and equipment purchases. The impact of fixed 

business investment on the stock of private nonfarm 

capital7 is shown in the following growth rates:

Actual

1955-68 ........................................................ 3.7

1968-73 ........................................................ 4.4

1973-80 ............................................ 3.7

________ Projected_

Low High-I High-II

1980-85 .......................................... 3.4 4.1 4.1

1985-90 .......................................... 4.2 5.4 5.5

The slowing growth of the capital stock in the 1973— 

80 period will continue through 1985 in the low-trend 

version, before improving slightly during 1985-90. The 

assumptions underlying the high-trend versions lead to 

expectations of a strong recovery over the entire 1980 

decade.

The ratio of capital to hours paid in the nonfarm sector is a general measure of how much plant and equipment is available to workers for producing output. The 

ratio is considered an important determinant of labor 

productivity growth. Between 1955 and 1975, this ratio 

expanded at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in real terms, 

increasing from $7,000 of capital available per workerhour in 1955 to $12,000 in 1975. Between 1975 and 

1980, however, the ratio rose by only .6 percent each 

year, to $12,400.

Only slight recoveries are projected for this ratio during the first half of the 1980’s in the low- and high-I 

projections. In the low-trend version, this is a result of 

continuing slow growth in investment. In the high-I 

case, the much higher investment rates are offset by the 

higher assumed labor force growth rates (and consequent increases in total hours paid). In the high-II version, the high investment rates ‘combined with lower 

employment levels lead to the fairly strong annual 

growth of 2.2 percent over the 1980-85 period. After 

1985, all three projections attain strong growth in the 

capital-hours ratio, ranging from 2.9 percent in the lowtrend version to 4.0 percent average growth in the highII case. The stock of business inventories is expected, in 

all projections, to expand slowly relative to GNP, reflecting historical trends.

Foreign trade. Both imports and exports have accounted 

for an increasing share of GNP, and this trend is 

expected to continue throughout the 1980-90 period. In 

current dollars, the balance on the current and longterm capital account is assumed to be a policy variable 

with the long-term value of zero. Such a policy would 

maintain the current-dollar balance on goods and services at a relatively low positive level. In the past, because import and export prices tended to move together 

in terms of both levels and rates, a zero current-dollar 

balance implied a zero constant-dollar balance. During 

the 1970’s, average import prices grew at a much faster 

rate did average export prices. The disparity was primarily due to much higher petroleum prices, although 

world inflation generally was higher than in the United 

States. It is assumed that foreign prices will once again 

move at roughly the same pace as export prices during 

the projection period, but it is also expected that the difference in level will never be made up. Therefore, as the 

United States strives to maintain a current-dollar balance of trade, the impact on constant dollar trade will 

be a generally more rapid rate of growth in exports relative to imports, thereby improving the real balance of 

trade over time.

Government The government portion of GNP comprises 

purchases of goods and services and compensation of 

employees. All other expenditures are excluded by definition. Real purchases by Federal, State, and local governments accounted for almost 25.0 percent of GNP in 

1968; since then, the share of GNP accounted for by 

purchases of goods and services has declined, reaching 

the 19.6-percent level by 1980. This drop was due almost entirely to the cessation of U.S. military involvement in Vietnam.

Real Federal purchases fell at an average rate of 1.4 

percent during the 1968-80 period because of large declines in defense spending. Federal purchases as a share 

of GNP fell sharply, from 12.1 percent in 1968 to 7.3 

percent in 1980. State and local government purchases 

also declined as a proportion of GNP during 1968-70.

The trend toward a smaller share of production 

accounted for by government purchases is expected to 

continue throughout the 1980’s in the two high-trend 

versions. In all projections, Federal defense purchases 

grow sharply in real terms during the early 1980’s, and 

slow slightly after 1985. Defense purchases are projected to stabilize at about 5.0 percent of GNP over the latter half of the decade. As noted earlier, virtually no 

change in military force levels is assumed during the 

1980’s. Therefore, the increases in real defense expendi16

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tures are expected to be replacing obsolete materiel and 

performing research and development for more sophisticated weapons systems.

Nondefense purchases, in contrast, are expected to 

decline at a 1.0 to 3.0 percent annual rate between 

1980 and 1985, and to grow by less than 1.0 percent 

each year after 1985 in all projections. This reflects the 

assumption that many programs will experience relatively slower growth or be scaled back in the 1980’s, 

while the primary emphasis shifts to defense preparedness. The net effect is to drop Federal purchases of 

goods and services from 7.3 percent of GNP in 1980 to 

about 6.5 percent by 1990 in the high-trend versions. 

In the low-trend projection, Federal purchases will 

continue to account for roughly the same proportion of 

GNP throughout the decade.

In the State and local sector, the largest change from 

prior trends is expected in the education sector. As the 

baby-boom generation matures, the number of school 

enrollees should decline smoothly over the entire decade. A sharp slowdown in the growth of educational 

purchases is projected to 1985, with absolute declines 

subsequently. The children of the baby-boom generation 

are expected to increase educational demand beginning 

around 1985, but the effect will be mild and relatively 

short-lived.

Purchases of goods less compensation for public safety are projected to decline sharply in the early 1980’s as 

the rapidly increasing cost of fuel affects the purchases 

of new equipment for police and firefighters. The remaining categories of State and local purchases are 

expected to grow much less rapidly over the coming decade. The net effect of these considerations is to lower 

State and local purchases from 12.3 percent of GNP in 

1980 to the 10.0- to 11.0-percent range in 1990.

It should be emphasized that government’s declining 

share of GNP during the 1980’s does not mean that government purchases are expected to decline in absolute 

terms. Rather, the expected growth rate— 1.8 percent 

between 1980 and 1990—is somewhat lower than the 

overall GNP growth rate.

In summary, three scenarios have been set for economic growth in the 1980’s: the first reflecting moderate 

increases and the others showing a return to the strong 

growth of the 1950’s and 1960’s. With the assumptions 

underlying the projections, the most notable occurrence 

in the 1980’s is the shift in spending from the public 

sector to the private sector, especially for investment. 

However, the change depends on the fiscal assumptions 

discussed earlier; with other assumptions, the results 

could be different.

Employment and honrs

The number of jobs, the average number of hours 

paid per job, and the level of real output per hour are 

key determinants of potential output in the economy.

These factors are detailed in table 3. During the 25 

years between 1955 and 1980, the number of jobs increased from 68.7 million to 105.6 million, or about 1.5 

million jobs a year. During this period, many important 

shifts occurred. Military force levels declined from 3 

million in 1955 to 2.1 million in 1980. Agricultural employment also declined, from 6.4 million to 2.8 million 

jobs, because of increases in farm productivity. Civilian 

government employment, in contrast, grew from 9.4 

percent of total employment in 1955 to 14.6 percent in 

1980, an increase of 8.9 million. Most of this growth—

8.3 million jobs—occurred in State and local government. Private nonfarm employment increased by 33 million jobs, a growth of more than 1.3 million each year, 

increasing its share of employment from 76.8 percent in 

1955 to 80.8 percent in 1980.

Several major changes in employment are expected to 

occur in the alternatives. Total employment is expected 

to increase at an average rate of 1.6 percent each year 

between 1980 and 1985 in the low-growth and high-II 

versions. This amounts to 2.2 million jobs a year, a 

more rapid increase than that projected for the total labor force— 1.7 percent each year, or 1.9 million new labor force entrants. The higher employment growth reflects the relatively rapid decline in the unemployment 

rate following the 1980 slowdown. In the high-! version, a higher labor force projection, combined with an 

even more rapid decline in the unemployment rate, 

yields total annual employment growth of 2.4 percent 

between 1980 and 1985, or slightly fewer than 2.7 million jobs a year.

In all alternatives, the rate of employment growth begins to slow in the latter half of the decade, to 1.4, 1.9, 

and 1.5 percent, respectively, for the low-, high-I, and 

high-II models. This reflects the projected slowdown in 

labor force growth after 1985.

The share of jobs between the public and private sectors is an important determinant of the level of real 

supply GNP, because productivity in the public sector is 

assumed to be nearly constant.8 Therefore, if public employment accounted for larger shares of total employment, the associated growth in real GNP would be 

reduced. Federal employment is expected to expand 

during the 1980-90 period, but the rate of growth (.1 

percent annually) is considerably less than the total employment growth expected in all three alternatives. The 

military force level is projected to virtually stabilize at 

the current level of 2.1 million persons for all alternatives. State and local government employment is also 

expected to grow less rapidly than total employment. In 

the latter half of the 1950’s and during all of the 1960’s, 

the growth in State and local employment was due, in 

large part, to very rapid growth in public education. 

School enrollment, however, moderated during the latter 1970’s. The echo effect from the baby-boom generation will begin to be seen around 1985, but will be

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Table 3. Labor force, em ploym ent, productivity, and gross national product, 1955, 1988, 1973, and 1980, and projected to

1985 and 1990

[Employment data in thousands ]

C ategory

Actual P rojected

1955 1888 1973 1980

1885 1850

Low H igh-I H igh-ll Low High-I H igh-ll

Total labor force (including military) ................................................. 68,072 82,272 91,040 106,821 117,114 120,381 117,114 124,504 130,252 124,504

Unemployed ................................................................................................... 2,853 2,817 4,305 7,448 8,049 6,504 6,899 7,342 5,125 5,507

Employed (persons concept)........................................................................ 65,219 79,455 86,735 99,373 109,065 113,877 110,215 117,162 125,127 118,997

Adjustment factor (persons to jo b s )........................................................... 3,438 4,409 4,557 6,188 4,697 5,090 4,705 4,796 5,524 4,947

Employment (jobs concept) ............................................................................. 68,657 83,864 91,292 105,561 113,762 118,967 114,920 121,958 130,651 123,944

General governm ent....................................................................................... 9,520 14,521 15,185 17,481 17,587 17,587 17,441 18,106 18,106 17,886

Federal ........................................................................................................ 4,779 5,670 4,354 4,402 4,355 4,355 4,209 4,429 4,429 4,209

M ilita ry ...................................................................................................... 3,049 3,535 2,326 2,102 2,129 2,129 2,129 2,129 2,129 2,129

C ivilian ...................................................................................................... 1,730 2,135 2,028 2,300 2,226 2,226 2,080 2,300 2,300 2,080

State and lo c a l............................................................................................ 4,741 8,851 10,831 13,079 13,232 13,232 13,232 13,677 13,677 13,677

Private ............................................................................................................. 59,137 69,343 76,107 88,080 96,175 101,380 97,479 103,852 112,545 108,058

A gricu ltu re ................................................................................................... 6,424 3,663 3,206 2,823 2,622 2,922 2,922 2,334 2,634 2,634

Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ 52,713 65,680 72,901 85,257 93,553 98,458 94,557 101,518 109,911 103,424

Private average annual hours per job ........................................................... 2,126 2,001 1,961 1,884 1,856 1,865 1,862 1,819 1,825 1,824

A gricu ltu re ................................................................................................... 2,473 2,354 2,290 2,311 2,301 2,301 2,301 2,246 2,246 2,246

Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ 2,083 1,981 1,943 1,870 1,844 1,852 1,848 1,809 1,815 1,814

Private GNP per hour (1972 dollars) .............................................................. 4.56 6.67 7.48 7.99 8.35 8.58 8.89 9.17 9.75 10.36

A gricu ltu re ................................................................................................... 1.84 3.36 4,30 6.21 6.05 6.25 6.26 7.18 7.95 8.00

Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ 4.95 6.89 7.65 8.06 8.43 8.66 8.99 9.23 9.80 10.43

Total GNP (billions of 1972 d o lla rs )................................................................ 657.5 1,058.1 1,255.0 1,480.7 1,653.3 1,784.7 1,775.1 1,902.4 2,172.6 2,171.8

General governm ent....................................................................................... 84.6 132.4 139.1 155.2 163.0 163.0 161.4 169.7 169.7 167.1

Private ............................................................................................................. 572.9 925.7 1,115.9 1,325.5 1,490.3 1,621.7 1,613.7 1,732.7 2,002.9 2,004.7

A gricu ltu re ................................................................................................... 29.3 29.0 31.6 40.5 36.5 42.0 42.1 37.6 47.0 47.3

Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ 543.6 896.7 1,084.3 1,285.0 1,453.8 1,579.7 1,571.6 1,695.1 1,955.9 1,957.4

Average annual rate o f change

1955-68 1SS8-73 1973-80 1880-85 1£35-80

Total labor force (including military) ................................................. 1.5 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.4 1.9 1.2 1.6 1.2

Unemployed ................................................................................................... -.1 8.9 8.1 1.6 -2 .7 -1 .5 -1 .8 -4 .7 -4 .4

Employed (persons co n ce pt)........................................................................ 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.8 2.1 1.4 1.9 1.5

Adjustment factor (persons to jo b s ) ........................................................... 1.9 .7 4.5 -5 .4 -3 .8 -5 .3 .4 1.6 1.0

Employment (jobs concept) ............................................................................. 1.5 1.7 2.1 1.5 2.4 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.5

General governm ent....................................................................................... 3.3 .9 2.0 .1 .1 ( ’ ) .6 .6 .5

Federal ........................................................................................................ 1.3 _5.1 .2 - .2 - .2 - .9 .3 .3 <’ )

M ilita ry ..................................................................................................... 1.1 - 3.0 -1 .4 ■ .3 .3 .3 ( ') ( ’ > ( ')

C ivilia n ..................................................................................................... 1.6 .0 1.8 - .7 - .7 -2 .0 .7 .7 ( ' )

State and lo c a l........................................................................................... 4.9 4.1 2.7 .2 .2 .2 .7 .7 .7

Private . , ........................................................................................................ 1.2 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.9 2.0 1.5 2.1 1.7

A gricu ltu re ................................................................................................... -4 .2 2.6 -1 .8 -1 .5 .7 .7 -2 .3 -2.1 -2.1

Nonagriculture ........................................................................................... 1.7 2.1 2.3 1.9 2.9 2.1 1.6 2.2 1.8

Private average annual hours per job ........................................................... - .5 -.4 - .6 - .3 - .2 - .2 - .4 - .4 - .4

A gricu ltu re ................................................................................................... - .4 -.6 .1 -.1 -.1 -.1 - .5 - .5 - .5

Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ - .4 -.4 - .5 - .3 - .2 - .2 - .4 - .4 - .4

Private GNP per hour (1972 dollars) .............................................................. 3.0 2.3 .9 .9 1.4 2.2 1.9 2.6 3.1

A gricu ltu re ................................................................................................... 4.7 5.1 5.4 - .5 .1 .2 3.5 4.9 5.0

Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ 2.6 2.1 .7 .9 1.4 2.2 1 .8 '. 2.5 3.0

Total GNP (billions of 1972 dollars) ................................................. 3.7 3.5 2.4 2.2 3.8 3.7 2.8 4.0 4.1

General governm ent...................................................................................... 3.5 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.0 .8 .8 .8 .7

Private ............................................................................................................. 3.8 3.8 2.5 2.4 4.1 4.0 3.1 4.3 4.4

A gricu ltu re ................................................................................................... -.1 1.7 3.6 -2.1 .7 .8 .6 2.3 2.4

Nonagriculture ............................................................................................ 3.9 3.9 2.5 2.5 4.2 4.1 3.1 4.4 4.5

’ Less than 0.05 percent

relatively insignificant until after 1990. The result is an 

annual growth in the number of education-related employees of .3 percent during the 1980-85 period, and 

annual declines of .5 percent during 1985-90. The declines, however, will be somewhat offset by continued 

growth in other programs and the administrative employment associated with these programs, although at a 

less rapid rate than in the past. As a result, private employment is expected to expand more rapidly than total 

employment over the entire projection period in all alternatives. Following are the proportion of private and

government employment for 1980, 1985, and 1990:

1985 __________ 1990

1980 Low High-I High-ll Low High-I High-ll

P r i v a t e ............. 83.4 84.5 85.2 84.8 85.2 86.1 85.6

F a rm . . . . 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.1

N o n fa rm . . 80.8 82.2 82.8 82.3 83.2 84.1 83.4

G o v e rn m e n t . 16.6 15.5 14.8 15.2 14.8 13.9 14.4

F e d e ra l . . . 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.4

S ta te a n d

lo c al . . . 12.4 11.6 11.1 11.5 11.2 10.5 11.0

E d u c atio n 6.5 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.3 5.0 5.2

O th e r 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.8 5.9 5.5 5.8

Digitized 

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The declining share of government employment reflects the impact of demographic shifts, as well as the 

apparent public preference for a smaller government 

role in the civilian sector of the economy.

Hours. Average weekly hours paid are projected to continue to decline at approximately the long-term historical rate. In the private nonfarm sector, the long-term 

decrease in weekly hours has been influenced by the 

treed toward more service employees, which lowers average hours because many work short weeks or on a 

part-time basis, and by the increase in female labor 

force participation, which began in the mid-1960’s. 

Many of these women took part-time positions. This 

contributed to the service sector effect which is projected to continue ancj will cut averge weekly hours. Female labor force participation rates are also projected to 

grow at a rather strong pace during the 1980’s. However, it is assumed that the disparity between part-time 

jobholding rates of men and women will diminish during the 1980’s; thus, the growth of female labor force 

participation will no longer have an appreciable impact

on the average workweek. Women are expected to be 

increasingly employed in all sectors of the economy.

T h e a l t e r n a t i v e p a t h s of growth encompass reasonable possibilities for expansion of the economy during 

the 1980’s. The low-trend projection examines the implications of a moderately expanding labor force, continued low growth in productivity, and high inflation. 

The high-trend projections study the effects of a more 

rapidly expanding labor force (high-I) coupled with 

more optimistic assumptions regarding both productivity and inflation. The projected range of real GNP growth 

averages between 2.5 and 3.9 percent annually over the 

1980-90 period, yielding a difference among the alternative scenarios of $270 billion by 1990. The projections 

hinge on the underlying assumptions and could be 

significantly affected by even small changes in the latter. 

These are medium-term projections of theU.S. economy, 

and no attempt has been made to forecast cyclical 

fluctuations. The projections should not be construed 

as a forecast of a likely growth path but as the probable range of economic growth during the 1980’s. □

FOOTNOTES

' The projections are part of a BLS program of studies aimed at analyzing long-run economic growth. The primary objective is to develop projections of employment and occupational requirements under

alternative assumptions. Other articles in the series discuss industry

projections of output and employment and future trends in occupational demand. As part of a continuing program to assess the validity

of BLS projections, future articles will evaluate the projections of the

U.S. economy for 1980. For previous articles, see Norman C.

Saunders, “The U.S. economy to 1990: two projections for growth,”

Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 36-46; Arthur

Andreassen, “Changing patterns of demand: BLS projections to

1990,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 47-55; Valerie A.

Personick, “Industry output and employment: BLS projections to

1990,” Monthly Labor Review, April 1979, pp. 3-14; Thomas

Nardone, “The Job Outlook in Brief, Based on the Occupational Outlook Handbook, 1980-81 ’Edition,” Occupational Outlook Quarterly,

Spring 1980, pp. 2-21; Paul T. Christy and Karen J. Horowitz,

“Evaluation of b l s projections of 1975 output and employment,”

Monthly Labor Review, August 1979, pp. 8—19; and Max L. Carey,

“Evaluating the 1975 occupational employment projections,” Monthly Labor Review, June 1980, pp. 10-21.

2 See Lester C. Thurow, “A Fiscal Policy Model of the United

States,” Survey of Current Business, June 1969, pp. 45-64. The BLS

economic growth model is a software system comprised of a modified

version of the Thurow macroeconomic model, several demand

submodels, and an input-output and industry level employment model. A detailed methodological description of the current model is being prepared for publication, as is a description of the operating

system.

' The Department of Energy projections are taken from the energy

forecasts developed for the Energy Information Agency’s Annual Report to Congress, 1979 (June 1980), a medium international oil price

version. They assume an average landed crude oil price of $37 per

barrel by 1990, in 1979 dollars.

4 Projections of the Population of the United States: 1977 to 2050,

Current Population Reports (Bureau of the Census, Series P-25, No.

704, 1977) and Projections of the Number of Households in the United States: 1979 to 2000, Current Population Reports (Bureau of the

Census, Series P-25, No. 805, 1979).

5 Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “The 1995 labor force: a first look,”

Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 11-21.

6 A tremendous amount of material has been written on the reasons

behind the slowdown in productivity growth. Major studies include

R. Kutscher, G. Mark, and J. R. Norsworthy, “The productivity

slowdown and the outlook to 1985,” Monthly Labor Review, May

1977, pp. 3-8; J. R. Norsworthy, M. Harper, and J. Kunze, “The

Slowdown in Productivity Growth: an Analysis of Some Contributing

Factors,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, 1979; P.

Clark, “Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown,”

Journal of Finance, June 1978, pp. 967-75; D. Hudson and E.

Jorgenson, “Energy Prices and the U.S. Economy, 1972-1976,” Data

Resources Review, September 1976, pp. 1.24-1.37; J. Beebe, “A Note

on Intersectoral Shifts and Aggregate Productivity Change,” Annals

of Economic and Social Measurement, Summer 1975, pp. 389-95; and

E. Denison, Accounting for Slower Economic Growth (Washington,

D.C. Brookings Institution, 1979).

The estimates of capital stock developed in the projections are

consistent with the gross stocks series presented in Fixed Nonresidential Business and Residential Capital in the United States, 1925-

75 (U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,

1976).

8 By national income accounting conventions, there is no change

over time in government productivity. Rather, it is assumed that real

output for a government employee is equal to that person’s compensation in the dollar base year (1972 in this case). Apparent changes in

average real compensation reflect shifts in the grade structure of government employees over time.

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The outlook for industry output 

and employment through 1990

The future looks bright for service,

durable goods, and high-technology industries;

projections assume lower unemployment and

taxes, higher investment and productivity,

and continued oil scarcity

Valerie A. Personick

The structure of employment in the United States has 

undergone considerable change in recent decades. Although employment is growing in virtually all sectors of 

the economy, growth has been much more rapid in service-producing industries than in goOds-producing industries. This trend is projected to continue under the 

economic conditions assumed by the Bureau of Labor 

Statistics in its revised projections for the next decade, 

although at a different pace.

Three alternative scenarios for industry output and 

employment growth were prepared. The low-trend version assumes a decline in the rate of expansion of the 

labor force, continued high inflation, moderate productivity gains, and modest increases in real output and 

employment. In high-trend version I, the economy is 

buoyed by larger labor force growth, much lower unemployment rates, higher production, dampening of price 

increases, and greater improvements in productivity. 

The third alternative, high-trend II, is characterized by 

the rapid output growth of high-trend I but assumes 

the same labor force as the low-trend version. Productivity gains are quite substantial in this alternative.

Summary of employment: ftrenis

Between 1959 and 1969, total employment in the 

United States rose by 2.0 percent a year. The most rapid increase was posted by the government sector, which 

grew at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent. ExpanValerie A. Personick is an economist in the Office of Economic

Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

sion of public sector employment during the 1960’s reflected strong demand for teachers and other educational personnel as the baby-boom generation entered 

school, effects of the Vietnam war buildup, and increases in government services resulting from “Great 

Society” and- other programs. Job growth in miscellaneous service industries was also stronger than for the 

economy as a whole, while manufacturing, the largest 

sector in 1959, had a growth rate just about equal to 

the all-industries average.

During the 1970’s, job growth accelerated in the sectors defined as service-producing but slowed in manufacturing and government. Between 1969 and 1979, 

employment rose 4.0 percent annually in other (or miscellaneous) services, 3.6 percent in finance, insurance, 

and real estate, and 3.0 percent in trade, but only 0.5 

percent in manufacturing and 1.1 percent in government. By the end of the decade, wholesale and retail 

trade had replaced manufacturing as the largest employment sector. The fast-growing miscellaneous services 

sector ranked third, having overtaken government. 

Thus, while almost 1 out of every 4 jobs was in a manufacturing industry in 1959, by 1979 this sector 

accounted for only 1 out of every 5 jobs. In contrast, 

jobs in other services represented less than 1 of 7 in 

1959, but by 1979 had expanded to almost 1 of 5.

During the 1980’s, these trends are expected to continue under the conditions assumed by BLS for the 1990 

economy. Other services is projected to continue to be 

the fastest-growing sector, accounting for more jobs 

than manufacturing by 1985. The employment shares of 

trade, mining, and finance, insurance, and real estate are

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also expected to rise over the next decade, while manufacturing, agriculture, transportation, communications, 

and public utilities, although posting gains during the 

1980’s, are projected to represent smaller portions of all 

jobs.

Under the low-trend assumptions, total employment 

will rise from 104.1 million in 1979 to 122.0 million by 

1990, a net increase of 17.9 million jobs. In the hightrend high-employment model (version I), 26.5 million 

new jobs will be added to the 1979 level, for total employment of 130.7 million in 1990. In the high-trend 

low-employment model (version II), employment would 

reach 124.0 million by 1990.

The rates of job increase between 1979 and 1990 in 

the low-trend and high-trend II versions (1.4 and 1.6 

percent a year, respectively) represent a slowdown over 

the previous two decades, while the high-trend I rate of

2.1 percent represents a somewhat faster pace.

Characteristics of the 1990 economy

Labor force. The civilian labor force is expected to grow

1.6 percent a year between 1979 and 1990 in the lowtrend and high-trend II models, and 2.0 percent a year 

in the high-trend I model. Both rates are considerably 

smaller than the 2.7 percent average annual rate of expansion posted during 1975-79. The slowdown should 

occur as the last of the baby-boom generation enter the 

labor force.

Under both labor force scenarios, two-thirds of the 

growth is provided by women. The first assumes that 

the proportion of women age 20 to 44 in the labor force 

will rise at an increasing rate until 1983; participation 

rates of men in most age groups are expected to decline, 

although not as fast as they did during the 1970’s. The 

second scenario assumes even faster growth for women’s participation rates, and a reversal of the decline in 

men’s rates:

_________Projected_________

Low labor High labor

force force

Actual______scenario_____ scenario

1975 1979 1985 1990 1985 1990

Labor force

(in m illions)____ 92.6 102.9 115.0 122.4 118.3 128.1

Men ................ 55.6 59.5 63.6 65.9 64.8 68.2

Women ........... 37.0 43.4 51.4 56.5 53.4 59.9

Participation rate . . 61.2 63.7 66.5 67.9 68.4 71.1

Men ................ 77.9 77.9 77.7 77.2 79.2 79.9

W o m en ........... 46.3 51.0 56.5 59.6 58.7 63.2

Unemployment rate. Somewhat offsetting the effects of 

slower labor force growth on job creation are assumptions about unemployment. The unemployment rate is 

assumed to decline following the 1980 recession and 

then level off within a range of possible full employment 

levels. In the low-trend forecast, the rate is assumed to

fall from 7.1 percent in 1980 to 7.0 percent by 1985 and

6.0 percent by 1990. The more optimistic high-trend assumptions are for a 5.5-percent unemployment rate in 

1985 and 4.0 percent in 1990 in version I, and 6.0 percent in 1985 and 4.5 percent in 1990 in version II.

Gross national product. Gross national product (g n p) is

projected to expand 2.4 percent annually between 1979 

and 1990 in the low-trend version, and 3.8 percent in 

the high-trend versions. The low-trend estimate roughly 

corresponds to the experience o f the 1973-79 period, 

when real GNP increased at an average rate of 2.8 percent a year. Assumptions underlying the high-trend 

projections more closely resemble the growth path of an 

earlier period, 1955-68, during which the economy was 

expanding at a 3.7-percent annual pace.

Taxes. In all cases, reductions in both personal income 

taxes and the effective corporate tax rate are assumed to 

take place throughout the decade. The high-growth alternatives, in particular, incorporate an assumption of a 

vigorously pursued policy of investment incentives.

Productivity. The productivity slowdown which characterized the 1970’s is assumed to at least stabilize during 

the 1980’s, as some of the contributory factors are minimized or even reversed. The rate of productivity growth 

in the private sector declined from 3.0 percent a year 

during 1955-68 to 2.3 .percent between 1968 and 1973 

and 0.9 percent between 1973 and 1980. Among the 

reasons cited for this drop are an influx of inexperienced 

labor force entrants, energy price shocks, investment in 

environmental protection and energy conservation rather than in production, and less per-employee capital accumulation in general. In the coming decade, however, 

the baby-boom generation will be in the prime working 

age groups, creating a proportionately more experienced 

labor force. Investment in capital goods is projected to 

be stimulated by specific government policies, and 

businesses are expected to become more adept at 

responding to changes in energy resources. As a result, 

annual labor productivity growth in the private sector is 

projected to be 0.9 percent during 1980-85 and 1.9 percent during 1985-90 in the low-trend forecast, 1.4 percent and 2.6 percent in the high-trend I version, and 2.2 

percent and 3.1 percent in the high-trend II model.

Ernergy assumptions

Higher prices and uncertain supply for oil and natural gas, both domestic and foreign, have begun to force 

both conservation and a shift to other energy sources. 

During the 1980’s, these trends are projected to intensify. Domestic production of crude oil and natural gas 

and refined petroleum products is expected to remain 

virtually unchanged or decline slightly throughout the

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decade, while oil imports are assumed to be cut back

drastically. In 1977, imports of crude oil accounted for

almost one-third of total U.S. supply. That ratio has begun to turn down somewhat, and is expected to continue to decline to 21.5 percent by 1990 in the low-trend

version, or to between 24.2 and 24.5 percent in the

high-trend models.

To the degree possible, the energy assumptions are

based on the “1979 Annual Report to the Congress” of

the U.S. Department of Energy.1 (See table 1.) The midprice case of the department was chosen as the basis for

the BLS projections. This case assumes that crude oil

nominal prices will rise from $31.37 a barrel in 1979 to

$51.14 in 1985, and to $81.33 in 1990. The department’s projected rates of growth for domestic output

and imports under these price conditions were applied

to bl§ data to derive the 1985 and 1990 levels of domestic production of various types of energy and the

level of oil imports.

Coal output is projected to boom as electric utilities

and other industrial users substitute it for scarcer, more

expensive oil in their production processes. This return

to coal as an important energy source has already had

an impact on the industry—coal production increased

20.3 percent in 1979 and 8.3 percent in 1980; employment jumped 25.6 percent in 1979 to a 25-year high of

265,000 jobs and held close to that level in 1980. Coal

output in the low-trend projection is estimated to sustain an 8.1 percent yearly growth, at least through

1985, after which the rate is expected to taper to 3.6

percent annually during 1985-90. In the high-trend versions, coal production will increase 9.1 to 9.4 percent a

year during 1979-85, and 4.5 to 4.7 percent annually

thereafter.

The vigorous rates of growth projected for coal production result not only from the assumption of strong

domestic demand, but from substantial foreign demand

as well. Exports of coal are expected to expand 5.7 percent annually between 1977 and 1990 in the low-trend

Tab!© 1. U.S. @n@Piy sypplly by sour©©, aetyal and

projected, GGlostQd y©ar©, 1965-90

item

Aetuai ^re je cte d

le s s 1073 1®73 107® 1835 1880

Total domestic energy supply:

Quadrillion BTU par year . . . ' ............... 53.7 75.0 78.4 79.3 81.6 89.1

Coal:

Quadrillion BTU par y s a r...................... 13.4 14.4 15.0 17.4 25.0 29.3

Parcant of total supply ......................... 25.0 19.2 19.1 21.9 30.6 32.9

Domestic oil and gas:

Quadrillion BTU par y s a r...................... 34.2 44.3 40.2 39.6 36.9 38.3

Parcsnt of total supply ......... ............... 63.7 59.1 51.3 49.9 45.2 43.0

Nat oil and gas imports:

Quadrillion BTU par y e a r...................... 5.4 14.0 17.6 17.7 12.9 12.5

Peroant of total supply ......................... 10.1 18.7 22.4 22.3 15.8 14.0

Nuclear: %

Quadrillion BTU par year ...................... .9 3.0 2.8 5.6 8.2

Percent of total supply ......................... 1.2 3.8 3.5 6.9 9.2

Source: U.S. Dspartmsnt of Energy, Energy Information Administration.

version, and 9.9 to 10.8 percent a year in the high-trend

versions.

Consumption of electricity'will rise during the 1980’s

as an alternative energy source for both home heating

and industrial production. Output is projected to grow

3.3 percent a year between 1979 and 1990 in the lowtrend version, and 4.4 percent a year in both high-trend

scenarios. Coal is expected to be an increasingly important input in the production of electricity, while nuclear

power sources are assumed to expand only slightly over

the next decade and account for a very small fraction of

total electricity production.

Final demand teernds

P erso n a l co n su m p tio n d o m in a n t Personal consumption

expenditures accounted for nearly two-thirds of total

gross national product in 1979, and while these outlays

are projected to grow somewhat more slowly than total

GNP over the next decade, they will still be by far its

largest component.

Among consumption categories, expenditures for

nondurable items, such as food and household supplies,

are expected to continue to grow more slowly than outlays for durable goods and services. This long-term

trend reflects the tendency of consumers to spend less

of their budget on necessary staples and shift more discretionary income to higher-priced durable goods or to

recreation and other services as disposable incomes rise.

Food and tobacco, which together accounted for almost 29 percent of the personal consumption budget in

1955, are projected to represent only 17 to 19 percent

in 1990. Tobacco expenditures, in particular, are

expected to have the second-fastest rate of decline of all

personal consumption categories. (The most rapid drop

is projected for gasoline and oil purchases.)

One of the fastest-growing components of personal

expenditures projected is medical care services. This

item accounted for 8.3 percent of personal consumption

expenditures in 1972 and 8.7 percent in 1979, but is

expected to represent more than 10 percent of such consumption in 1990. One of the main causes for rapid

projected growth of real medical care expenditures will

be an aging population. In 1979, the number of persons

age 65 or older was 24.7 million, or 11.2 percent of the

total population. In 1990, 29.8 million people, or 12.2

percent of the total, will be in this age group.2

Other categories of personal consumption expenditures projected to rise rapidly include amusements and

recreation services, and airline transportation. Expenditures for recreation have been steadily growing as a

share of all personal consumption expenditures, from

about 5.7 percent in 1955 to 6.3 percent in 1968 and

7.9 percent in 1979. In 1990, they are projected to account for between 8.7 and 9.7 percent of all personal

consumption expenditures. Airline transportation is

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expected to be the second-fastest growing component.

Outlays for consumer durables are projected to increase as a percentage of total personal consumption expenditures, particularly for household furnishings; home 

electronic equipment such as radios, televisions, video 

recorders, and personal computers; and motor vehicles. 

Under the low-trend version, most of the gains will occur in the second half of the decade, while the hightrend models assume the recovery from the 1980 recession will be swifter and purchases of consumer durables 

will rise rapidly throughout the decade.

Investment growth the strongest. Investment, currently 

about 15 percent of final demand, is projected to show 

significantly more growth than the 0.6-percent annual 

rate posted between 1973 and 1979, especially in the 

second half of the next decade. The largest category of 

investment, producers’ durable equipment, rises 5.0 percent annually in the low-trend version during the latter 

years of the 1980’s, in line with the long-term historical 

rate of growth; the high-trend versions predict an

8.1-percent annual expansion over the same period. The 

rapid gain in the high-trend models reflects the better 

business conditions and strong tax incentive programs 

assumed in these versions.

A list of the specific types of equipment for which demand is projected to be greatest reflects the full fruition 

of the “age of electronics.” Leading the advance will be 

purchases of computers and peripheral equipment. Rapidly growing investment demand is also expected for 

optical equipment, typewriters and other office equipment, radio and communication equipment, and scientific and controlling instruments. These products are all 

characterized by or contribute to rapid advances in 

technology. As older machines or production processes 

become less efficient or even obsolete, businesses are 

expected to buy more of these high-technology items in 

relation to other capital goods to remain competitive.

Equipment for which slow growth in investment demand is expected includes special industry machinery; 

engines, turbines, and generators; and office furniture.

Business investment in new plants is projected to 

recover more slowly from the 1980 recession than investment in equipment, due to the longer lead-times required. After 1985, construction of new plants and 

other business structures is expected to rebound at a 

rate of growth in line with the long-term, pre-recession 

rate of 4.7 percent.

Projections of residential investment show a very different pattern than those for other types of investment. 

This sector was the most severely hit by the 1975 and 

1980 recessions—new housing starts plummeted from a* 

decade-high 2.4 million in 1972 to 1.3 million in 1980; 

expenditures for residential investment declined by 0.9 

percent a year during 1973-79. Over the same period,

however, the rate of new household formation was accelerating, reflecting both the maturing of the babyboom generation and a trend toward more single-person 

households. The demand for homeownership that was 

pent up during the recession years is projected to spur 

residential investment expenditures during the first half 

of the 1980’s; growth is estimated at 2.2 percent a year 

between 1979 and 1985 in the low-trend model and 4.5 

to 4.8 percent in the high-trend models. After 1985, 

however, the rate of new household formation is 

expected to decline, and residential investment growth 

drops to 1.0 percent annually in the low-trend version 

and 3.2 to 3.5 percent in the high-trend scenarios.

Foreign trade will grow rapidly. Exports and imports 

have been rising over time as a share of GNP, reflecting 

the growing economic interdependence of the United 

States and the rest of the world. This trend is projected 

to continue into the next decade in all scenarios. In 

1955, exports accounted for 4.7 percent of final demand; by 1979 that share had risen to 9.9 percent, and 

is expected to climb to between 11.5 and 12.9 percent in 

1990. Imports represented 3.6 percent of GNP in 1955,

7.4 percent in 1979, and are projected to account for

9.1 to 9.7 percent in 1990.

A wide variety of products is exported from the 

United States each year. Chief among them in the past 

have been food and feed grains, and other agricultural 

products; motor vehicles and parts; aircraft; chemicals; 

and construction, mining, and oilfield machinery. These 

goods are projected to continue to account for a sizable 

share of exports in the coming years, but they are 

expected to be joined by computers, electronic components, and coal as important export goods. Plastic products exports are expected to grow much faster than the 

average for all exports, but not as rapidly as in the past.

As the import share of GNP rises, raw materials purchases are becoming less significant compared to imports of finished capital and consumer goods, and this 

trend is expected to continue. Imports of crude petroleum are assumed to decline drastically, from 31 percent of the total supply of oil and natural gas in 1977 

to between 21.5 and 24.5 percent by 1990.

The largest share of imported merchandise is 

accounted for by motor vehicles and parts— 13.5 percent in 1977. As a percentage of the total value of output of all cars, trucks, buses,' vans, and spare parts 

purchased in the United States, imports grew from less 

than 2 percent in 1963 to 12.5 percent by 1977 and to

13.8 percent in 1979. Further gains for imported motor 

vehicles are projected as the domestic auto industry 

struggles to recover from the devastating 1980 recession. The value of the import share is projected to top 

15 percent in 1985 in all three scenarios. After that 

point, however, it declines somewhat to about 14.4 per23

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cent by 1990. The downturn is expected to occur, as 

American cars begin to compete effectively with gaseconomizing imports, and more foreign automakers set 

up factories in the United States.

Motorcycle and bicycle manufacturing is the industry 

with the largest proportion of imports; it is expected to 

rank first during the next decade as well, with imports 

holding an almost steady 65-percent share. Radio and 

television imports are projected to continue to dominate 

the output of that industry, rising from 39 percent of 

total output in 1977 to about 49 percent in 1990 in the 

low-trend forecast, and to about 46 percent in the hightrend models. Among other industries with large volumes of imports, rising import shares are projected for 

steel and primary nonferrous metals; steady or declining 

shares are expected for imports of apparel, leather products (including footwear), electronic components, and 

paper products.

Government share dipping. Government purchases3 as a 

whole are projected to grow somewhat more slowly 

than total GNP in the coming decade, but wide variation 

is assumed for different functions within the public sector. For example, emphasis at the Federal level is 

expected to swing back to national defense. In past 

years, defense purchases have been declining in real 

terms as a proportion of GNP. Real outlays for defense 

dropped 7.3 percent annually between 1968 and 1973 as 

the Vietnam war drew to a close, and then contracted 

further, by an average of 0.3 percent each year through 

1979. Sharp increases in defense spending are expected 

for the 1980’s, particularly during the first half. Purchases are projected to grow 5.3 to 5.7 percent a year 

between 1979 and 1985, rising 1.5 to 2.1 percent annually thereafter.

All of the extra real defense expenditures are assumed 

to be for materiel; the size of the armed forces is projected to remain unchanged at 2.1 million. Among the 

industries particularly affected by the projected defense 

buildup are ordnance (which includes tanks), guided 

missiles, aircraft, ship and boat building and repair, and 

radio and other communication equipment.

In contrast, the nondefense portion of Federal purchases of goods and services is expected to show no 

growth over the next decade. As a share of total final 

demand, Federal nondefense purchases decline from 2.3 

percent of GNP in 1979 to 1.9 percent by 1990 in the 

low-trend version, 1.7 percent in high-trend version I, 

and 1.5 percent in high-trend version II.

Expenditures for goods and services by State and local governments, which accounted for 12.1 percent of 

GNP in 1979, will show only minimal growth during the 

1980’s. Education expenditures are actually projected to 

decline between 1985 and 1990, as the school- and college-age population shrinks. In the latter year, there will 

be only about 45.3 million children age 5 to 17 and

25.1 million young adults between 18 and 24, compared 

with 46.9 million and 29.3 million in 1979.4

The only area of State and local spending expected to 

show any increase is the health field. It is assumed that 

purchases of goods and services for public health will 

just about keep pace with the rate of growth of the 

economy as a whole.

Industry output

The projections of final demand by industry were 

multiplied by an input-output table to yield projections 

of the domestic output required by each industry to 

meet that final demand. The table was based on the 

1972 input-output matrix published by the Department 

of Commerce,5 with several of the original coefficients 

modified to reflect 1977 Commerce Department data or 

other information on recent trends. Among the industries for which special studies or assumptions were 

made are the metals sectors, textiles, motor vehicles, the 

service sectors, and the energy industries.

Food production slows. As real incomes rise, purchases 

of food for home consumption tend to level off. Food 

purchases are projected to grow only slightly faster 

than the population, and considerably more slowly than 

purchases of other commodities. This slowdown will 

affect almost all of the food industries, and indirectly, 

the agricultural industries. The only food industries 

expected to post output gains at least equal to total 

GNP growth are those producing alcoholic beverages 

and soft drinks. Domestic output of alcoholic beverages, including beer and wine, is assumed to keep pace 

with rising incomes, while growth in the soft drink industry will arise from higher levels of exports.

Little growth in other nondurable goods industries. Several other nondurable manufacturing industries, such as 

tobacco manufacturing, paper products, cleaning preparations, and leather products, are also expected to exhibit only moderate output growth over the next 

decade. The output of the refined petroleum products 

industry is assumed to actually decline as demand 

shrinks dramatically. Partly as a result of the petroleum 

cutback, output of the nondurable goods sector will decline steadily as a share of total output. (See table 2.)

Although the output of the nondurable goods manufacturing sector is projected to show only moderate 

overall growth, several component industries are 

expected to post faster-than-average gains. These include the chemical products, drugs, apparel, and printing and publishing industries.

Growth strong for durable goods. The durable goods 

portion of manufacturing, unlike nondurables, is projected to grow faster than the all-industries average. Between 1979 and 1990, production is expected to expand

24

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T a fe l® 2 . @ ro@ © p r o d y e t © rlg S m a tlin ig 1 b y m a j o r s ® e t ® r , a e t y a S a n d p r o j e c t e d , s ® S ® c t® d y e a r s , U S S S - i©

ilU ion s o f 1S72 dollars

Actual P rejssted

Industry eseter

le s s 1080

10SS 1889 1070

Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend 11 Lew -trend High-trend 1 High-trend 11

Total p riv a te ............................................................ 629.5 951.9 1,329.1 1,490.3 1,621.7 1,613.7 1,732.7 2,002.9 2,004.7

Agriculture .......................................................................... 27.8 29.5 34.9 36.5 42.0 42.1 37.6 47.0 47.3

N cnagriculture...................................................................... 601.7 922.4 1,294.2 1,453.8 1,579.7 1,571.6 1,695.1 1,955.9 1,957.4

Mining .......................................................................... 13.3 18.2 21.0 25.2 28.9 26.6 27.1 30.1 29.7

C onstruction................................................................ 45.5 55.8 58.3 70.8 75.5 75.5 76.3 87.1 88.0

Manufacturing ............................................................ 171.2 277.2 368.0 411.6 448.4 444.2 474.6 554.3 550.9

Durable goods ....................................................... 100.9 170.3 223.5 251.7 277.9 274.7 294.6 354.7 350.6

Nondurable g o o d s .................................................. 70.3 108.8 144.5 159.9 170.5 169.5 180.0 199.6 200.3

Transportation, communications, and public

utilities ................................................................... .. 55.4 92.6 141.1 175.7 187.3 186.3 218.7 244.8 244.0

Transportation ....................................................... 29.9 43.4 55.9 63.3 67.9 67.5 73.7 83.8 83.3

Com m unications.................................................... 11.5 23.8 50.3 73.0 77.6 77.2 99.5 110.4 109.8

Public utilities ......................................................... 14.0 25.3 34.8 39.4 41.8 41.6 45.5 50.6 50.9

Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................ 115.4 173.6 248.1 271.8 298.1 294.4 316.0 365.0 366.6

Wholesale .............................................................. 42.0 70.6 103.4 114.4 124.2 123.5 132.6 154.8 154.6

R e ta il........................................................................ 73.4 103.0 144.8 157.4 171.9 170.9 183.4 210.2 212.0

Finance, insurance, and /eal estate ...................... 93.5 152.9 227.5 245.8 268.9 266.9 284.9 324.7 329.4

Other services2 ......................................................... 83.6 127.2 183.3 205.2 220.1 218.9 239.0 276.9 278.1

Government enterprises .......................................... 11.8 16.8 21.0 25.1 26.7 26.6 28.5 31.9 32.1

Rest of world and statistical discrepancy ............ 7.9 8.1 25.9 22.6 31.8 32.2 30.0 41.1 38.6

Average annual rate o f change

Actual

1070-ms in s - g o

10S0WSS 1£38-71

Low-trend High-trend I H igh-trend II Low -trend H igh-trend 1 High-trend 11

Total p riv a te ........................................................... 4.2 3.4 1.9 3.4 3.3 3.1 4.3 4.4

Agriculture .......................................................................... .6 1.7 .7 3.1 3.2 .6 2.3 2.4

N cnagriculture..................................................................... 4.4 3.4 2.0 3.4 3.3 3.1 4.4 4.5

Mining .......................................................................... 3.2 1.4 3.1 4.2 4.0 1.5 2.3 2.2

Construction................................................................ 2.1 .4 3.3 4.4 4.4 1.5 2.9 3.1

Manufacturing ........................................................... 4.9 2.9 1.9 3.3 3.2 2.9 4.3 4.4

Durable goods ........................... ........................... 5.4 2.8 2.0 3.7 3.5 3.2 5.0 5.0

Nondurable g o o d s.................................................. 4.3 3.1 1.7 2.8 2.7 2.4 3.2 3.4

Transportation, communications, and public

utilities ..................................................................... 5.3 4.3 3.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 5.5 5.5

Transportation ...................................................... 3.8 2.6 2.1 3.3 3.2 3.1 4.3 4.3

Comm unications.................................................... 7.5 7.8 6.4 7.5 7.4 6.4 7.3 7.3

Public utilities ...................... .................................. 6.1 3.2 2.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.9 4.1

Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................ 4.2 3.6 1.5 3.0 2.9 3.1 4.3 4.5

Wholesale .............................................................. 5.3 3.9 1.7 3.1 3.0 3.0 4.5 4.6

R e ta il........................................................................ 3.4 3.5 1.4 2.9 2.8 3.1 4.1 4.4

Finance, insurance, and real estate ...................... 4.5 4.1 1.3 2.7 2.7 3.0 4.0 4.3

Other services2 ......................................................... 4.3 3.7 1.9 3.1 3.0 3.1 4.7 4.9

Government enterprises .......................................... 3.6 2.3 3.0 4.1 4.0 2.6 3.6 3.8

Rest of world and statistical discrepancy ............. .3 12.3 -2 .2 3.5 3.7 4.8 5.3 3.7

1 Gross product originating represents the value added by an industry after costs of materials 2 Includes private households.

and secondary products made in other industries have been subtracted from total output.

2.5 percent a year in the low-trend version, compared to

2.4 percent for total private-sector output. Corresponding figures for the high-trend version are 4.2 to 4.3 percent for durable goods versus 3.8 percent for the total.

Spurring the rapid increase in durable goods output are

the investment, defense, and personal consumption assumptions discussed previously.

Among specific industries in the durable manufacturing sector projected to enjoy substantial output growth

are computers; optical equipment; construction, mining,

and oilfield machinery; typewriters and other office machines; electronic components; material- handling equipment; photographic equipment; and medical and dental

instruments.

The computer industry, in fact, is expected to lead all

industries studied in terms of output increase. As is well

known, output of computer equipment has burgeoned

in the past few decades; its 11.6-percent annual rate of

increase between 1958 and 1979 surpassed that off all

other industries studied. Growth came in response to

greater demand for information processing as well as

from expanding applications of computer technology to

such fields as biotechnology and industrial robots. New

uses and markets for computer technology will continue

to spur output in the coming decade, at projected rates

of increase ranging from 7.6 to 10.1 percent a year.

S erv ice s o u tp u t g ro w th in lin e w ith re st o f econ om y. In

1959, service industries accounted for 13.3 percent of

total private output; in 1979 the share was 13.8 percent.

Service industries are expected to hold this steady share

of output throughout the 1980’s in all three scenarios.

Within the service sector, the most rapid output

growth is projected for the amusement and recreation

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industry and the medical industries. Amusement and

recreation services expanded by about 4.1 percent annually between 1958 and 1979. The same pace is expected

for the 1979-90 period in the low-trend version, while

the high-trend models project average annual growth of

5.4 to 5.6 percent. For the medical industries, an increase in output of doctors’ and dentists’ services is

expected to average 3.3 to 4.7 percent a year between

1979 and 1990; output of hospitals is projected to expand by 3.6 to 5.1 percent; and annual output growth

of other medical services is projected to be in the 3.0-

to 5.0=percent range. These average rates are all higher

than the 2.4- to 3.8-percent range forecast for output of

the total private economy during 1979-90.

Construction pattern mixed. In all scenarios, the construction sector grows faster than the all-industries average between 1979 and 1985, but more slowly between

1985 and 1990. In the first half of the decade, rising residential construction is projected to stimulate this industry, but in the second half, a dropoff in new home

construction is expected to more than offset the beginnings of a rebound in business construction of factories,

offices, and public utilities. Shrinking government outlays for school and road construction are also expected

to dampen the output growth of this sector.

Variations expected in other industry sectors. Trade,

-which represented 18.7 percent of total private-sector

output in 1979, is projected to hold about the same

share in 1990. Both the wholesale and retail portions

will grow at about the same pace, although within retail

trade, output of eating and drinking establishments is

T a b ! ® 3 . L o w - t r e n d p r o j e c t e d o u t p u t c h a n g e s f o r

© e l e c t e d I n d u s t r i e s , 1 ® 7 ® - ® 0

Average annual rate

industry e f output change

(in percent)

All private industries................................................................... 2.4

Fastest-growing:

Computers and peripheral equipment ........................................ 7.6

Communications, except radio and te le visio n ........................... 6.4

. Coal m ining....................................................................................... 6.0

Radio and television broadcasting............................................... 5.7

Transportation services ................................................................ 4.3

Optical and ophthalmic equipment ............................................ 4.2

Amusement and recreation s e rv ic e s .......................................... 4.0

Electronic com ponents................................................................... 3.9

Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g ........................................ 3.8

Construction, mining, and oilfield m achinery......................... 3.8

Slowest-growing or declining:

Petroleum refining and related products ................................... -1 .6

Copper ore m in in g .......................................................................... - .3

Private households ........................................................................ - .3

Nonferrous metal ores m ining...................................................... - .3

Logging ............................................................................................ .0

Barber and beauty s h o p s .............................................................. .0

Railroad e q u ip m en t........................................................................ .1

Gas u tilitie s....................................................................................... .5

Tobacco manufacturing ................................................................ .5

expected to expand more rapidly than that of other retail businesses.

Output of the mining sector is projected to keep pace

with total private output after decades of slower-thanaverage growth. The rapid increase projected for coal

production is expected to outweigh the minimal growth

assumed for crude oil production and the absolute declines anticipated in copper mining and nonferrous ores

mining. In addition to coal, above-average domestic

output gains are also projected for iron ores and chemical mining.

Table 3 summarizes the low-path industry output

forecast, showing the most- and least-rapidly growing

or declining industries for 1979-90. In the high-trend

versions (which assume more purchases ' of durable

equipment), transportation services, amusement and

recreation services, electronic components, and chemical

mining drop off the list of the 10 fastest-growing industries (but remain within the top 20), and are replaced

by those manufacturing radios and televisions, typewriters and other office equipment, material handling equipment, and telephone and telegraph apparatus.

Industry employment .

Employment projections at the industry level are

derived from the projections of output by industry, but

the two are far from strictly parallel. The differences

stem from the varying estimates of labor productivity

by industry and of expected changes in the average

workweek. Thus, although output in the low-trend version is projected to decline in only 4 of the 150 industries studied, employment drops are expected for 33

industries as a result of expected productivity growth in

the private economy. In high-trend version I, only two

industries experience output declines, but 24 show employment reductions. For the high-trend II case, output

drops in two industries but employment falls in 30. (See

table 4.)

The projected upturn in productivity is somewhat offset by a continued decline in the average workweek.

Average weekly hours in the private sector dropped

from 39.9 in 1959 to 38.3 in 1969, and further, to 36.6,

in 1979. By 1990, hours paid are projected to average

35.0 a week in the low-trend model and 35.1 in the

high-trend models.

While employment is expected to grow more slowly

than in the recent past, at least in the low-trend version

and high-trend II (which are based on a smaller labor

force than high-trend I), the distribution of employment

among major industry sectors in all versions will continue to change largely in line with past trends. (See tables 5 and 6.)

Services continue to pace growth. The fastest-growing

employment sector is projected to be services, as it has

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Table 4. Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90

[In thousands]

Actual Projected

Low-trend. High-trend 1 High-trend II

Industry

1959 19S9 1979 1990

Average

annual

rate of

change,

1979-90

1990

Average

annual

rate of

change,

1979-90

1980

Average

annual

rate of

change,

1979-90

Agriculture:

Dairy and poultry p ro d u c ts .......................................... 1,551 814 511 354 -3 .3 395 -2 .3 411 -2 .0

Meat and livestock p ro d u cts........................................ 979 756 528 452 -1 .4 508 - .4 524 -.1

Cotton ............................................................................. 565 178 142 121 -1 .4 136 - .3 135 - .5

Food and feed g ra in s .................................................... 960 635 639 591 - .7 674 .5 661 .3

Other agricultural products.......................................... 1,436 1,111 995 813 -1 .8 920 - .7 903 - .9

Mining:

Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ................................... 33 30 30 34 1.3 38 2.2 33 1.0

Copper ore m ining....................................................... 23 34 33 34 .4 37 1.2 36 .8

Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper . . . . 31 25 39 40 .3 42 .8 40 .3

Coal m ining...................................................................... 201 138 265 411 4.1 472 5.4 412 4.1

Crude petroleum and natural g a s .............................. 200 157 211 311 3.6 325 4.0 307 3.5

Stone and clay mining and quarrying......................... 105 99 103 103 .1 109 .5 100 - .3

Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g ...................... 19 18 25 31 2.1 33 2.8 32 2.1

Construction:

Maintenance and repair construction......................... 662 792 1,292 1,423 .9 1,532 1.6 1,460 1.1

New construction............................................................ 3,163 3,594 4,605 5,497 1.6 5,977 2.4 5,643 1.9

Manufacturing: 

Durable goods:

Ordnance ................................................................... 50 175 75 102 2.8 111 3.7 98 2.5

Complete guided missiles and space vehicles .. 94 107 81 70 -1 .3 72 - .9 77 - .5

Logging........................................................................ 143 138 148 113 -2 .4 120 -1 .8 108 -2 .8

Sawmills and planing mills ..................................... 305 230 237 222 - .6 231 - .2 215 - .9

Other millwork, plywood, and wood products . . . 261 310 386 344 -1 .0 370 - .4 374 - .3

Wooden containers .................................................. 43 36 25 20 -1 .6 22 -1 .0 22 -1 .3

Household furniture .................................................. 259 316 331 379 1.2 408 1.9 390 1.5

Furniture and fixtures, except household ............ 124 153 176 180 .2 214 1.8 194 .9

Glass .......................................................................... 153 188 205 239 1.4 252 1.9 242 1.5

Cement and concrete p ro d u c ts .............................. 209 228 254 253 -.0 267 .5 261 .2

Structural clay p ro d u c ts .......................................... 78 64 52 44 -1 .5 45 -1 .2 43 -1 .7

Pottery and related products................................... 49 45 51 57 1.1 60 1.5 55 .7

Other stone and clay products .............................. 125 140 164 171 .4 186 1.2 181 .9

Blast furnaces and basic steel p ro d u cts............... 588 644 569 583 .2 586 .3 583 .2

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s .................... 269 312 324 375 1.4 387 1.6 377 1.4

Primary copper and copper products.................... 137 160 159 163 .3 170 .7 165 .3

Primary aluminum and aluminum p ro d u c ts .......... 111 153 169 173 .3 181 .6 170 .0

Primary nonferrous metals and metal products .. 78 93 90 111 2.0 114 2.2 108 1.7

Metal containers ....................................................... 75 87 81 91 1.1 99 1.9 95 1.4

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ............ 71 76 76 100 2.6 105 3.0 103 2.8

Fabricated structural metal p ro d u c ts .................... 344 440 538 583 .7 640 1.6 601 1.0

Screw machine products ........................................ 88 114 117 140 1.6 151 2.4 143 1.9

Metal stampings ....................................................... 189 255 243 266 .8 290 1.6 277 1.2

Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .......... 135 165 186 226 1.8 240 2.4 227 1.8

Other fabricated metal products ........................... 231 315 378 443 1.5 472 2.0 461 1.8

Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to rs ......................... 90 112 145 149 .3 175 1.7 160 .9

Farm m achinery......................................................... 128 141 183 217 1.6 239 2.5 224 1.9

Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery . . . . 162 202 282 369 2.4 474 4.8 369 2.4

Material handling equ ip m en t................................... 65 95 113 148 2.5 183 4.5 150 2.6

Metalworking m achinery.......................................... 251 347 379 411 .7 547 3.4 424 1.0

Special industry m a chinery..................................... 164 206 205 227 1.0 234 1.2 231 1.1

General industrial m achinery................................... 221 291 329 393 1.6 430 2.5 390 1.6

Other nonelectrical m achinery................................ 166 246 309 344 1.0 381 1.9 373 1.7

Computers and peripheral equipment ................. 111 224 350 552 4.2 614 5.2 555 4.3

Typewriters and other office equ ip m en t............... 28 52 48 77 4.5 89 5.8 73 3.8

Service industry machines ..................................... 97 147 188 199 .6 226 1.7 208 .9

Electric transmission equipment ........................... 157 207 219 236 .7 277 2.2 247 1.1

Electrical industrial a p p a ra tu s ................................ 176 223 251 307 1.9 355 3.2 315 2.1

Household appliances ............................................. 157 187 180 192 .6 198 .9 190 .5

Electric lighting and wiring ..................................... 134 205 226 309 2.9 335 3.7 324 3.3

Radio and television receiving sets ...................... 114 156 115 98 -1 .4 120 .5 116 .0

Telephone and telegraph apparatus .................... 105 146 169 201 1.6 231 2.9 229 2.8

Radio and communication equipm ent.................... 252 409 357 424 1.6 433 1.8 418 1.5

Electronic com ponents............................................. 213 394 525 666 2.2 669 2.2 669 2.2

Other electrical machinery and equ ip m en t.......... 111 125 180 174 - .3 211 1.5 176 - .2

Motor veh icles............................................................ 696 912 996 921 - .7 1,049 .5 940 - .5

A irc ra ft........................................................................ 722 805 632 768 1.8 839 2.6 779 1.9

Ship and boat building and repair ......................... 151 193 228 271 1.6 305 2.7 279 1.9

Railroad equipment .................................................. 41 51 74 65 -1 .0 81 .8 81 .8

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a r t s ........................... 9 14 20 24 1.8 30 4.0 32 4.4

Other transportation equipm ent.............................. 23 89 105 120 1.2 147 3.1 121 1.3

Digitized for FRASER 

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Tab!© 4. Continued— Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 19§©-®0

[In thousands]

Actual P rojected

Low -trend H igh-trend 1 High-trend II

Industry

1959 1SS0 1079 1990

Average 

annual 

rate o f 

change, 

1979-80

1990

Average 

annual 

rate o f 

change, 

1979-90

16S0

Average 

annual 

rate o f 

change, 

1079-90

Scientific and controlling instrum ents.................... 166 195 218 252 1.4 298 2.8 246 1.1

Medical and dental instrum ents.............................. 45 82 141 189 2.7 224 4.3 183 2.4

Optical and ophthalmic equipm ent......................... 85 75 82 92 1.1 102 2.0 97 1.5

Photographic equipment and supplies ................. 69 111 134 144 .7 165 1.9 152 1.2

Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices . . . 30 35 28 25 - .7 28 .3 25 - .9

Jewelry and silverw are............................................. 67 78 93 91 - .2 92 -.1 91 - .2

Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s ............... 116 149 145 164 1.2 175 1.8 175 1.7

Other manufactured p ro d u c ts ................................ 229 233 244 263 .7 269 .9 262 .6

Nondurable goods:

Meat p ro d u c ts ............................................................ 324 344 364 379 .4 403 .9 372 .2

Dairy p ro d u cts............................................................ 326 260 189 158 -1 .6 168 -1 .0 147 -2 .2

Canned and frozen fo o d s ........................................ 249 291 308 269 - .5 307 .0 323 .5

Grain mill products _____ _ . . 139 137 146 154- 5 165 1.2 151 .3

Bakery products ....................................................... 313 286 240 204 -1 .5 217 - .9 209 -1 .2

Sugar .......................................................................... 38 36 30 33 1.1 34 1.4 33 1.0

Confectionery products .......................................... 79 87 79 70 -1 .0 75 - .5 73 - .7

Alcoholic beverages.................................................. 107 97 88 62 -3.1 64 -2 .7 65 -2 .7

Soft drinks and fla vo ring s........................................ 111 142 151 156 .3 166 .9 152 .1

Other food products.................................................. 144 151 163 147 - .9 157 - .3 156 - .4

Tobacco m anufactures............................................. 95 83 70 64 - .7 67 - .3 67 - .4

Fabric, yam, and thread mills ................................ 619 616 532 534 .0 545 .2 529 -.1

Floor covering mills .................................................. 39 58 60 62 .3 68 1.3 64 .6

Other textile mill products........................................ 74 82 70 74 .6 82 1.5 73 .4

Hosiery and knit g o o d s ............................................ 221 251 229 238 .4 261 1.2 232 .1

A pp a rel........................................................................ 1,100 1,244 1,132 1,190 .5 1,319 1.4 1,205 .6

Other fabricated textile p ro d u c ts ........................... 143 182 200 233 1.4 251 2.1 236 1.5

Paper products ......................................................... 415 483 493 546 .9 548 1.0 545 .9

Paperboard containers and b o x e s ......................... 175 231 215 221 .3 233 .8 230 .6

Newspaper printing and publishing ...................... 328 376 435 508 1.4 549 2.1 526 1.7

Periodical and book printing and publishing . . . . 156 210 230 303 2.5 329 3.3 305 2.6

Other printing and publishing................................... 446 550 641 664 .3 717 1.0 693 .7

Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals .......... 260 296 323 417 2.4 426 2.6 425 2.5

Agricultural chemicals ............................................. 54 65 70 73 .5 75 .7 71 .1

Other chemical products ........................................ 82 124 100 113 1.2 118 1.5 122 1.8

Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.................. 81 108 101 97 - .3 107 .6 108 .5

Synthetic fibers ......................................................... 79 132 118 93 -2.1 101 -1 .4 102 -1 .3

Drugs .......................................................................... 106 143 194 228 1.5 247 2.2 232 1.6

Cleaning and toilet preparations ........................... 89 123 140 145 .4 162 1.3 152 .8

Paints and allied products........................................ 62 72 69 71 .3 74 .7 69 .1

Petroleum refining and related products............... 217 182 210 184 -1 .2 201 - .4 184 -1 .2

Tires and inner tu b e s ............................................... 105 119 122 126 .3 129 .5 126 .3

Miscellaneous rubber and plastics products . . . . 178 162 167 179 .7 181 .8 183 .8

Other plastics products .......................................... 94 320 493 658 2.7 669 2.8 645 2.5

Leather tanning and industrial leather ................. 36 29 20 14 -2 .7 15 -2 .2 15 -2 .6

Leather products including footwear .................... 341 316 234 212 - .9 226 - .3 214 - .8

Transportation:

Railroad transportation.................................................. 930 651 561 4*2 -1 .7 493 -1 .2 468 -1 .6

Local transit and intercity buses ................................ 311 315 303 3 x 1.4 364 1.7 339 1.0

Truck transportation....................................................... 1,001 1,214 1,558 1,922 1.9 2,052 2.5 1,908 1.8

Water transportation .................................................... 239 234 223 -198 -1.1 204 - .8 183 -1 .8

Air transportation............................................................ 184 357 442 493 1.0 525 1.6 497 1.1

Pipeline transportation .................................................. 24 18 20 22 1.1 22 1.2 22 .7

Transportation services ............................................... 70 111 192 240 2.1 262 2.9 246 2.3

Communications:

Radio and television broadcasting.............................. 80 131 193 266 3.0 277 3.4 267 3.0

Communications except radio and television .......... 749 919 1,121 1,280 1.2 1,454 2.4 1,300 1.4

Public utilities: •

Electric utilities, public and p riv ate .............................. 430 460 606 650 .6 758 2.1 654 .7

Gas utilities, excluding public ..................................... 215 220 223 242 .8 274 1.9 235 .5

Water and sanitary services, excluding public . . . . 61 88 93 108 1.4 128 2.9 114 1.8

Trade:

Wholesale trade ............................................................ 3,349 4,163 5,501 6,366 1.3 6,984 2.2 6,412 1.4

Eating and drinking p la c e s .......................................... 1,960 2,812 4,924 6,836 3.0 7,179 3.5 6,843 3.0

Retail trade, except eating and drinking places . . . 7,936 9,729 11,952 13,830 1.3 15,088 2.1 14,190 1.6

Finance, insurance, and real estate:

Banking ........................................................................... 644 987 1,492 1,981 2.6 2,013 2.8 1,957 2.5

Credit agencies and financial brokers ...................... 389 652 898 1,174 2.5 1,329 3.6 1,303 3.4

Insurance ........................................................................ 1,137 1,370 1,753 2,120 1.7 2,193 2.1 2,133 1.8

Real e s ta te ...................................................................... 753 855 1,371 1,732 2.1 1,926 3.1 1,716 2.1

Digitized for FRASER 

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Table 4. Continued— Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years, 1959-90

[In thousands]

Industry

Actual Projected

Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend II

1959 1989 1979 1990

Average

annual

rate of

change,

1979-90

1990

Average

annual

rate of

change,

1979-90

1990

Average

annual

rate of

change,

1979-90

Services:

Hotels and lodging places .......................................... 868 1,065 1,543 1,887 1.8 2,126 3.0 2,035 2.5

Personal and repair services ..................................... 1,157 1,232 1,278 1,281 .0 1,555 1.8 1,424 1.0

B aiter and beauty s h o p s ............................................. 538 634 613 649 .5 770 2.1 733 1.6

Miscellaneous business se rvice s................................ 814 1,691 3,144 4,314 2.9 4,757 3.8 4,509 3.3

Advertising ...................................................................... 121 134 166 192 1.3 213 2.3 198 1.6

Miscellaneous professional services ......................... 746 1,046 1,720 2,179 2.2 2,413 3.1 2,292 2.6

Automobile repair ......................................................... 422 569 837 1,168 3.1 1,208 3.4 1,148 2.9

Motion pictures .............................................................. 228 248 308 315 .2 329 .6 306 -.1

Amusement and recreation services ......................... 372 497 761 1,029 2.8 1,042 2.9 1,019 2.7

Doctors’ and dentists' se rv ic e s ................................... 605 806 1,317 1,896 3.4 1,982 3.8 1,875 3.3

Hospitals ........................................................................ 974 1,776 2,621 3,967 3.8 4,206 4.4 3,954 3.8

Other medical services ............................................... 283 652 1,403 2,312 4.6 2,553 5.6 2,403 5.0

Educational services (priva te )..................................... 839 1,229 1,683 2,098 2.0 2,149 2.2 2,075 1.9

Nonprofit organizations ............................................... 1,331 1,764 2,244 2,638 1.5 2,839 2.2 2,722 1.8

Forestry and fishery p ro d u cts ..................................... 47 41 76 78 .3 82 .8 76 .1

Agricultural, forestry, and fishery s e rv ic e s ............... 261 296 447 542 1.8 593 2.6 543 1.8

Private households ....................................................... 2,574 2,322 1,723 1,576 - .8 1,593 - .7 1,587 - .7

Government enterprises:

Post O ffic e ...................................................................... 574 732 661 675 .2 700 .5 680 .3

Other Federal enterprises .......................................... 104 152 153 202 2.6 236 4.0 207 2.8

Local government passenger tr a n s it......................... 71 87 130 185 3.3 200 4.0 190 3.5

Other state and local government enterprises . . . . 225 351 492 695 3.2 774 4.2 701 3.3

been in the past. In 1959, service industries accounted 

for 13.6 percent of total employment; by 1979, that 

share had risen to 19.4 percent. It is expected that in 

1990, service industries will account for about 22 percent of all jobs in the economy.

Leading the advance among service industries will be 

health care. Employment in doctors’ and dentists’ offices and in hospitals is expected to grow faster than the 

all-industries average, but the most rapid gains are projected for other related medical care services, such as 

nursing homes, medical laboratories, therapists’ offices, 

and nurses’ services. Between 1958 and 1979, employment in these establishments expanded by 8.8 percent a 

year, the fastest growth rate for any industry in the 

economy. During the 1980’s, other medical services employment will again post the fastest rate of growth under all scenarios: 4.6 percent a year in the low-trend 

model, 5.6 percent in high-trend I, and 5.0 percent in 

high-trend II.

Trade will offer most new jobs. The trade sector is 

expected to continue to increase its share of all jobs, 

but within the sector the pattern of job growth varies. 

Wholesale trade is projected to show only modest gains, 

while eating and drinking establishments in the retail 

portion enjoy more rapid growth. Although the anticipated rate of job increase for eating and drinking places 

is higher than for many other industries in the economy, it is still below the historical rate, due to an assumption of more rapid productivity gains. Other retail 

trade establishments are projected to average job

growth at about the same pace as the total private 

economy.

The greatest increase in employment opportunities 

over the next 11 years is expected to be in the trade sector, primarily because of its initial large size. Between

4.7 and 6.9 million new jobs are projected to appear in 

wholesale and retail trade establishments between 1979 

and 1990.

Manufacturing growth to pick up. Manufacturing jobs 

will grow by 0.8 percent a year during 1979-90 in the 

low-trend version, 1.6 percent in high-trend I, and 1.0 

percent in high-trend II, slower than the rates projected 

for total jobs but faster than manufacturing sector 

growth in recent years. Between 1969 and 1979, manufacturing employment rose by only 0.5 percent a year, 

and its share of total jobs dropped from 23.7 percent to 

20.6 percent. Manufacturing will account for between

19.2 and 19.5 percent of all jobs in 1990.

The projected turnaround in the rate of manufacturing job growth is more pronounced for durable goods 

manufacturing than for nondurables, reflecting assumptions of strong demand for consumer durables and for 

producers’ durable equipment, especially in the hightrend versions. Employment in durable manufacturing 

industries will expand by 1.0 percent a year during 1979 

-90 in the low-trend model, 1.9 percent in high-trend I, 

and 1.2 percent in high-trend II. Annual growth averaged only 0.7 percent in the 1969-79 period.

Within the durable goods sector, rapid job gains are 

projected for industries manufacturing typewriters and

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other office equipment; computers; electric lighting and 

wiring equipment; and medical and dental instruments. 

Employment in guided missiles and space vehicles is 

projected to decline between 1979 and 1990, despite 

output growth related to defense demand, because of 

productivity advances.

In the motor vehicles industry, the high-trend assumption is for employment to rebound from the layoffs 

of 1980, but under low-trend assumptions, the recovery 

will not be as complete. In 1977, 1978, and 1979, employment in the industry hovered around the 1 million 

mark. In 1980, however, it plunged to 776,000. In the 

high-trend I case, these lost jobs are expected to be 

recouped and employment is projected to be 1.049 million in 1990. In the low-trend case, 1990 motor vehicle 

employment will be about 921,000.

The number of jobs in basic steel declined steadily 

during the 1970’s, but is projected to stabilize over the 

next 10 years. Employment is expected to rise slightly 

from the 1979 level of 569,000 to between 583,000 and

Table S . Employment fey major secto r, actual and projected, selected years, 1SSD-S0

Thousands o f jobs

Actual Projected

Industry sector

1985 1980

1SSS 1889 1979

Low-trend High-trend I High-trend II Low-trend High-trend I High-trend II

Total e m ploym ent.................................................. 70,512 86,278 104,120 113,775 118,981 114,935 121,971 130,665 123,958

General government1 ....................................................... 9.973 14,818 16,523 17,587 17,587 17,441 18,108 18,106 17,886

F e d e ra l............................................................................. 4,289 5,614 4,223 4,355 4,355 4,209 4,429 4,429 4,209

M ilita ry ..................................................................... 2,552 3,506 2,103 2,129 2,129 2,129 2,129 2,129 2,129

C ivilian.......................................................................... 1,737 2,108 2,120 2,226 2,226 2,080 2,300 2,300 2,080

State and local .............................................................. 5,684 9,204 12,300 13,232 13,232 13,232 13,677 13,677 13,677

Education..................................................................... 2,687 5,036 6,642 6,679 6,679 6,679 6,513 6,513 6,513

N oneducation.............................................................. 2,997 4,168 5,658 6,553 6,553 6,553 7,164 7,164 7,164

Total private ........................................................................ 60,539 71,460 87,597 96,188 101,394 97,494 103,865 112,559 106,072

A griculture........................................................................ 5,491 3,494 2,815 2,621 '2,921 2,922 2,333 2,633 2,634

N onagriculture................................................................. 55,048 67,986 84,782 93,566 98,472 94,572 101,531 109,925 103,438

Mining .......................................................................... 612 501 708 898 946 896 967 1,059 959

C onstruction................................................................. 3,825 4,386 5,897 6,747 7,080 6,810 6,920 7,509 7,104

Manufacturing ............................................................ 16,985 20,469 21,433 22,609 23,855 22,895 23,476 25,520 23,905

Durable goods ....................................................... 9,560 12,081 13,009 13,833 14,644 14,036 14,560 16,045 14,872

Nondurable g o o d s .................................................. 7,425 8,388 8,424 8,775 9,210 8,859 8,916 9,475 9,033

Transportation, communications, and public

utilities ...................................................................... 4,304 4,718 5,535 5,903 6,213 5,898 6,239 6,815 6,241

Transportation ....................................................... 2,759 2,900 3,299 3,488 3,627 3,468 3,693 3,924 3,671

C om m unications.................................................... 839 1,050 1,314 1,447 1,535 1,459 1,546 1,731 1,567

Public utilities ......................................................... 708 768 922 968 1,051 971 1,000 1,160 1,003

Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................ 13,245 16,704 22,377 24,868 26,150 24,961 27,032 29,231 27,445

Finance, insurance, and real estate ...................... 2,923 3,864 5,514 6,096 6,427 6,252 7,008 7,464 7,108

Other services ............................................... ... 9,606 13,680 20,161 23,249 24,497 23,642 26,553 28,824 27,313

Government enterprises .......................................... 974 1,322 1,436 1,606 1,681 1,625 1,758 1,911 1,778

Private households.................................................... 2,574 2,322 1,723 1,586 1,618 1,592 1,576 1,593 1,587

Percent distribution

Actual P rojected

1985 1990

1959 1880 1979

Low-trend High-trend I High-trend II Low-trend High-trend I High-trend II

Total e m ploym ent.................................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

General government' ....................................................... 14.1 17.2 15.9 15.5 14.8 15.2 14.8 13.9 14.4

Federal ............................................................................. 6.1 6.5 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.4

M ilitary .......................................................................... 3.6 4.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.7

C ivilian........................................................................... 2.5 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7

State and local .............................................................. 8.1 10.7 11.8 11.6 11.1 11.5 11.2 10.5 11.0

Education...................................................................... 3.8 5.8 6.4 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.3 5.0 5.3

N oneducation.............................................................. 4.3 4.8 5.4 5.8 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.5 5.8

Total private ........................................................................ 85.9 82.8 84.1 84.5 85.2 84.8 85.2 86.1 85.6

A griculture........................................................................ 7.8 4.0 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.1

N onagriculture................................................................ 78.1 78.8 81.4 82.2 82.8 82.3 83.2 84.1 83.4

Mining .......................................................................... .9 .6 .7 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8

Construction................................................................ 5.4 5.1 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.7

Manufacturing ............................................................ 24.1 23.7 20.6 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.2 19.5 19.3

Durable goods ....................................................... 13.6 14.0 12.5 12.2 12.3 12.2 11.9 12.3 12.0

Nondurable g o o d s .................................................. 10.5 9.7 8.1 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.3 7.3 7.3

Transportation, communications, and public

utilities ..................................................................... 6.1 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.0

Transportation ....................................................... 3.9 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

C om m unications.................................................... 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Public utilities ......................................................... 1.0 .9 .9 .9 .9 .8 .8 .9 .9

Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................ 18,8 19.4 21.5 21.9 22.0 21.7 22.2 22.4 22.1

Finance, insurance, and real estate ...................... 4.1 4.5 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.7 5.7 5.7

Other services ............................................................ 13.6 15.9 19.4 20.4 20.6 20.6 21.8 22.1 22.0

Government enterprises .......................................... 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4

Private households.................................................... 3.7 2.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3

1 National Income Accounts basis.

Digitized 

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Table 6. Average annual percent change in employment by major sector, actual and projected, selected years, 1©5@-S0

Industry sector

Actual 0

P rojected

1959-69 1630-79

1979-85 1885-00

Low-trend High-trend 1 H igh-trend II Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend II

Total em ploym ent..................................................

General government1 .......................................................

2.0 1.9 1.5 2.3 T.7 1.4 1.9 1.5

4.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 .9 .6 .6 .5

F e d e ra l............................................................................. 2.7 -2 .8 .5 .5 .0 .3 .3 .0

M ilitary.......................................................................... 3.2 -5 .0 .2 .2 .2 .0 .0 .0

C ivilian.......................................................................... 2.0 .1 .8 .8 - .3 .7 .7 .0

State and local .............................................................. 4.9 2.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 .7 .7 .7

Education ..................................................................... 6.5 2.8 .1 .1 .1 - .5 - .5 - .5

N oneducation.............................................................. 3.4 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.8 1.8 1.8

Total private ........................................................................ 1.7 2.1 1.6 2.5 1.8 1.5 2.1 1.7

Agriculture........................................................................ -4 .4 -2.1 -1 .2 .6 .6 -2 .3 -2.1 -2.1

Nonagriculture................................................................. 2.1 2.3 1.7 2.5 1.8 1.6 2.2 1.8

Mining .......................................................................... -2 .0 3.5 4.1 5.0 4.0 1.5 2.3 1.4

Construction................................................................ 1.4 3.0 2.3 3.1 2.4 .5 1.2 .8

Manufacturing ........................................................... 1.9 .5 .9 1.8 1.1 .8 1.4 .9

Durable goods ....................................................... 2.4 .7 1.0 2.0 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.2

Nondurable g o o d s .................................................. 1.2 .0 .7 1.5 .8 .3 .6 .4

Transportation, communications, and public

utilities........................................................................ .9 1.6 1.1 1.9 1.1 1.1 1.9 1.1

Transportation ....................................................... .5 1.3 .9 1.6 .8 1.1 1.6 1.1

Communications . . . .......................................... 2.3 2.3 1.6 2.6 1.8 1.3 2.4 1.4

Public utilities ......................................................... .8 1.8 .8 2.2 .9 .7 2.0 .6

Wholesale and retail tra d e ........................................ 2.3 3.0 1.8 2.6 1.8 1.7 2.3 1.9

Finance, insurance, and real estate ...................... 2.8 3.6 1.7 2.6 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.6

Other services ............................................................ 3.6 4.0 2.4 3.3 2.7 2.7 3.3 2.9

Government enterprises .......................................... 3.1 .8 1.9 2.7 2.1 1.8 2.6 1.8

Private households.................................................... -1 .0 -2 .9 -1 .4 -1 .0 -1 .3 -.1 - .3 -.1

1 National Income Accounts basis.

586.00 by 1990. An increase in steel jobs is projected 

despite an assumption that imports will account for a 

larger share of total steel output, because demand for 

basic steel products is expected to be strong in the next 

decade as the result of rapid investment growth.

The projected increase in nondurable goods employment, although positive compared to the zero growth 

posted during 1969-79, is much slower than the allindustries average. Nondurable goods industries accounted for 8.1 percent of all jobs in 1979, but are 

expected to represent only 7.3 percent in 1990.

In fact, 5 of the 10 industries with the greatest rate of 

projected job loss are in the nondurable goods sector. 

(See table 7.) The five industries have already experienced job declines either because of falling demand or 

rapid productivity growth, and these trends are expected to continue. Sluggish demand for leather tanning 

services and processed foods (especially dairy and bakery products) is expected to cause employment to fall; 

for alcoholic beverages and synthetic fibers, productivity 

gains are assumed to more than offset rapidly rising demand.

Employment in textiles will remain essentially 

unchanged from the 1979 level of 892,(XX) in the lowtrend and high-trend II versions, and rise by about

65.000 jobs in high-trend I. Demand for textile products is projected to expand in all models, but imports 

are expected to hold a 6.7- to 7.5-percent market share 

1990, somewhat larger than at present.

Jobs in apparel are projected to rise from 1.1 million 

to between 1.2 and 1.3 million between 1979 and 1990. 

Demand will increase with disposable incomes, outweighing the assumption that the import share of total 

apparel output will rise to between 14 and 16 percent.

Public sector growth will halt. Although most major economic sectors are expected to follow past trends in 

terms of shares of total jobs, State and local governments are an exception. Their employment share rose 

from 8.1 percent of the total in 1959 to 11.8 percent in 

1979, but by 1990, it will account for 11.2 percent of all 

jobs in the low-trend version and 10.5 percent in hightrend I. The slow growth is expected to result primarily 

from reductions in school enrollment, which will more 

than offset gains expected in the public health and hospitals field.

Federal employment is assumed to change only 

slightly from the 1979 level, and in one case (high-trend 

II) is projected to decline. Government employment in 

high-trend I, the model with the largest labor force, is 

the same as in the low-trend model because of assumptions that investment and tax policies will allow the private sector to completely absorb the larger labor force.

Other sectors show mixed patterns. Finance, insurance, 

and real estate employment is projected to continue to 

rise as a share of total jobs during the 1980’s, despite 

slower than average output growth. Demand for credit 

and banking services, in particular, is expected to stimulate employment growth in this area despite sluggish 

demand for real estate services.

The rate of employment increase in construction is 

projected to parallel the output trends discussed earlier, 

accelerating in the first half of the decade in response to

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the shifting energy picture. Coal mining is projected to 

be one of the fastest growing of all industries during the 

next decade. Over the past 30 years, employment in the 

coal industry has experienced major cycles. Following 

severe job cutbacks between 1950 and 1965, employment stabilized during 1965-69, then expanded steadily 

over the next 10 years. Although a shift from underground mines to more capital-intensive surface mines 

will cause output per worker-hour to grow faster in the 

coal industry than in the private nonfarm economy as a 

whole, employment is expected to continue to rise rapidly in response to increased demand for coal. Annual 

growth of 4.1 to 5.4 percent is projected for 1979-90. 

In the crude petroleum and natural gas drilling industry, employment is expected to rise faster than domestic 

output, as exploration for new oil creates demand for 

more workers but yields a decreasing rate of return.

Previous projections for 1990

In April 1979, BLS published its first look at industry 

output and employment for the year 1990, in the form 

of a base case and a high-employment alternative. The 

first case, intended as a base-line projection, incorporated a moderately expanding labor force, a relatively slow 

decline in inflation and unemployment, and moderate government expenditures. The high-employment 

alternative assumed a much larger labor force, and a 

heavy emphasis on job creation which would lower the 

unemployment rate. What are the differences between

strong housing demand, then slowing somewhat during 

the second half as demand for residential construction 

tapers. Between 1.0 million (low-trend) and 1.6 million 

(high-trend I) new jobs will be added in the construction industry between 1979 and 1990.

Farm employment is expected to continue to decline 

through the next decade, but the drop is not expected 

to be as rapid as in the last few decades; in the hightrend versions there is even a small gain between 1979 

and 1985. Past productivity advances in agriculture 

have been very great: Between 1959 and 1979, output 

per hour of all persons in the farm sector rose by almost 5 percent annually, compared with about 2 or 3 

percent for the private nonfarm economy before 1973 

and less than 1 percent a year thereafter. These advances have already begun to slow, however, and the 

continued tapering of increases in farm productivity 

during the 1980’s is expected to moderate the rate of 

decline in farm jobs.

Mining job growth above average. The largest industries 

within the mining sector in terms of jobs—coal mining 

and crude petroleum and natural gas extraction—are 

expected to experience employment changes in line with

Table 8. Comparison of previous and current

employment projections for 1990

[In thousands]

Previous C urrent

Industry se ctor Base

case

Low-trend High-trend

1

High-trend

II

Total employment ..................

General governm ent' .........................

121,204 121,971 130,665 123,958

18,066 18,106 18,106 17,886

Federal............................................... 4,389 4,429 4,429 4,209

Military ........................... .. 2,089 2,129 2,129 2,129

Civilian .......................................... 2,300 2,300 2,300 .2,080

State and local ......................... 13,677 13,677 13,677 13,677

Education ..................................... 6,513 6,513 6,513 6,513

Noneducation .............................. 7,164 7,164 7,164 7,164

Total p riv a te .......................................... 103,138 103,865

2,333

112,559

2,633

106,072

Agriculture ........................................ 2,634 2,634

Nonagriculture............ ...................... 100,504 101,531 109,925 103,438

M ining............................................ 787 967 1,059 959

Construction ................................ 6,033 6,920 7,509 7,104

Manufacturing .............................. 23,882 23,476 25,520 23,905

Durable g o o d s ......................... 14,692 14,560 16.045 14,872

Nondurable goods .................

Transportation, communications,

9,189 8,916 9,475 9,033

and public utilities .................... 5,658 6,239 6,815 6,241

Transportation ......................... 3,332 3,693 3,924 3,671

Communications...................... 1,473 1,546 1,731 1,567

Public u tilitie s ........................... 1,104 1,000 1,160 1,003

Wholesale and retail trade .... 

Finance, insurance, and real

27,370 27,032 29,231 27,445

estate ........................................ 6,695 7,008 7,464 7,108

Other se rvice s.......... ............... 26,742 26,553 28,824 27,313

Government e nterprises............ 1,779 1,758 1,911 1,778

Private households...................... 1,307 1,576 1,593 1,587

1 National Income Accounts basis.

T a b l e 7 . L © w -flr@ n d ] p r o j e c t e d e m p l o y m e n t c h a n g e s f o r

s e l e c t e d i n d u s t r i e s , 1 9 7 9 - 9 0

Average annual

Fastest grow ing rate of 

jo b grow th

Other medical s e rv ic e s ............................................................................. 4.6

Typewriters and other office equipment ............................................... 4.5

Computers and peripheral equipm ent.................................................... 4.2

Coal mining ................................................................................................. 4.1

H o s p ita ls ...................................................................................................... 3.8

Crude petroleum and natural g a s ............................................................ 3.6

Doctors’ and dentists' services .............................................................. 3.4

Local government passenger tra n s it....................................................... 3.3

Other state and local government enterprises................................ 3.2

Automobile re p a ir....................................................................................... 3.1

Average annual

M ost rapidly declining rate of 

jo b decline

Dairy and poultry products ..................................................................... -3 .3

Alcoholic b ev e ra g e s.................................................................................. -3.1

Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r.................................................... -2 .7

L o g g in g ........................................................................................................ -2 .4

Synthetic fibers ......................................................................................... -2.1

Other agricultural products ..................................................................... -1 .8

Railroad transportation ............................................................................. -1 .7

Wooden containers.................................................................................... -1 .6

Dairy products (processed)..................................................................... -1 .6

Bakery p ro d u cts ..................................................................... ................... -1 .5

Largest job gains

Em ploym ent gain

(in thousands)

Eating and drinking p la c e s .............................................................. 1,912

Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................................... 1,878

H o s p ita ls ...................................................................................................... 1,347

Miscellaneous business services ........................................................... 1,171

Other medical services ................................................................... 909

New construction ....................................................................................... 892

Wholesale tr a d e ......................................................................................... 866

Doctors’ and dentists’ services .......................................... .......... 580

P a n kin g ........................................................................................................ 490

Educational services (private) ............................................. 416

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those initial 1990 forecasts and the present ones?

One important change has been the development of a 

range of possible values for 1990 rather than a single 

base-line case plus an alternate. The new low-trend and 

high-trend I versions are intended to present a band 

within which a “base case” might fall.

In addition, estimates of the 1990 civilian labor force 

have been revised upward in all of the new scenarios. 

(For both 1990 employment projections, BLS prepared 

three alternative labor force projections—a low growth 

path, a middle growth path, and a high growth path. 

The old base case and the new low-trend and hightrend II models were based on the BLS middle labor 

force growth path. The old high-employment alternative 

and the new high-trend I model were based on the high 

labor force growth path.) Between 1977, the last year 

for which data were available for the first projections, 

and 1979, the last year for which data were available 

for the new ones, labor force participation rates of 

women have risen faster than expected. Consequently, 

the new 1990 labor force projections are higher than the 

old ones for all three labor force scenarios:

Old projection New projection

(000's) (000's)

Low growth path . . . 113,521 117,394

Middle growth path . 119,366 122,375

High growth path . . 125,603 128,123

Somewhat offsetting a larger labor force are new assumptions about the unemployment rate in light of the 

recent recession; except in the case of the 1990 hightrend I version, the new rates are higher than in the old 

projections:

1985 1990

Old projections: Base c a s e .................................... 4.7 4.5

High-employment alternative. 4.0 4.0

New projections: Low-trend ................................ 7.0 6.0

High-trend I ............................ 5.5 4.0

High-trend II ......................... 6.0 4.5

Military force levels are virtually unchanged in the 

new scenarios from those previously assumed. The result is a projection of total employment for 1990 that is

higher than the old base case in all new scenarios:

1985 1990

(000's) (000's)

Old projections: Base ca se ................... 114,440 121,204

High-employment

alternative ........... 119,627 128,400

New projections: Low-trend ...... 113,775 121,971

H igh-trendi........... 118,981 130,665

High-trend I I ____ 114,935 123,958

At the industry level, the new assumptions raise the 

employment projections for most sectors, although the 

1978-79 experience has altered the original outlook for 

many individual industries. For example, the synthetic 

fibers industry was projected to be one of the top 10 

job gainers (in terms of rate of growth) in the first set 

of projections, but this time ranks among the top 10 

losers. Rising prices which curbed demand, and gains in 

productivity contributed to this reversal.

The distribution of final demand also changed between the old and new scenarios, affecting both industry output and employment projections. Defense procurement was originally assumed to experience a 

slowdown during the 1980’s but is now projected to increase its share of GNP; personal consumption expenditures are not expected to grow as rapidly as initially 

forecast; and levels of exports and imports are both 

higher in the new versions. These revisions contribute to 

a change in the 1990 distribution of output and jobs at 

the industry level. (See table 8.)

The earlier forecasts assumed a shift in energy resources from oil and gas to coal, as do the new forecasts, but oil price shocks have been even more severe 

than originally anticipated, leading to a more pronounced shift in the new projections.

And finally, the previous forecasts used Department 

of Commerce input-output tables for 1963 and 1967 

and a BLS-estimated table for 1973. Subsequently, a 

1972 input-output table was published by the Department of Commerce. Use of this table in the new projections resulted in widespread data revisions in many 

historical series and provided more current information 

on technological trends. □

FOOTNOTES

1 Annual Report to Congress, 1979, Volume 3, (Energy Information

Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, 1980).

2 Projections of the Population of the United States: 1977 to 2050,

Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 704 (Census Bureau 1977).

3 Government purchases are outlays for goods and services, while

government expenditures include not only purchases but also grants,

transfers, and net interest payments.

4 Projections of the Population of the United States: 1977 to 2050.

5 The Detailed Input-Output Structure of the U.S. Economy: 1972,

(U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 1979).

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Occupational employment 

growth through 1990

Three alternative sets of occupational employment

projections for the 1978-90 period all show high growth

for white-collar and service categories, hut slow growth

for blue-collar workers and decreases among farmworkers

Max L. Carey

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed three sets 

of occupational employment projections for 1978 to 

1990 based on varying outlooks of the future economy.1 

Although the assumptions that differentiate these scenarios result in various rates of growth for most jobs, 

changes in the occupational composition of total employment during these years are similar for all versions 

and generally correspond to past trends. Employment 

continues to expand more rapidly in service occupations 

than it does in other categories, and the number of 

farmworkers still declines. White-collar jobs increase 

faster than total employment in each scenario, and the 

number of blue-collar jobs grows slower than the total. 

However, growth rates are expected to vary greatly 

within these broad categories, because demographic 

changes, technological developments, and shifts in the 

demand for products and services affect major occupational categories differently. For example, anticipated 

decreases in the teenage population and increases in the 

number of elderly persons in the 1980’s will reduce the 

need for secondary schoolteachers while increasing it for 

nurses.

Although the occupational structure of total employment in 1990 is similar in each version of the economy,

Max L. Carey is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth and

Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

some occupations are more sensitive than others to the 

differences in underlying assumptions. Generally, jobs 

which are concentrated in manufacturing industries that 

produce durable goods are most affected, as projected 

increases in the demand for these goods vary greatly 

among the scenarios. In contrast, occupations which are 

concentrated in government are relatively unaffected, 

because projections of its total employment change very 

little from one version to another. None of the scenarios 

attempts to forecast cyclical employment fluctuations.

This article summarizes projections from the first national industry-occupation matrix to be developed on 

the basis of staffing patterns from the Occupational Employment Statistics Surveys. Previous matrices were 

based on the decennial census.2

The matrix is a major input to the Bureau’s occupational outlook program which conducts research on future occupational requirements and resources for use in 

planning education and training programs and for career 

guidance and counseling. The results of the research are 

published in the Occupational Outlook Handbook and 

the Occupational Outlook Quarterly, which also contain 

information on the nature of work in different occupations, educational and training needs, earnings and 

working conditions, and other subjects of interest to 

people who are planning careers. The projections described in this article will be used in the 1982-83 edition 

of the Handbook, scheduled for release in spring 1982.

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Alternative scenarios

Three projections of economic growth for the 1980’s 

have been developed by BLS. Referred to as the lowtrend, high-trend I, and high-trend II scenarios, they 

are based on different assumptions concerning growth 

of the labor force, output, productivity, and other factors. The low-trend alternative assumes a decline in the 

rate of labor force expansion, continued high inflation, 

and modest increases in production and productivity. 

The two high-trend alternatives are more optimistic; 

both being based on large increases in the gross national product. Whereas scenario I assumes higher labor 

force growth, scenario II assumes greater productivity.

In all three alternatives, reductions in both personal 

income taxes and the effective corporate tax rate are 

expected to stimulate investment, and it is anticipated 

that expenditures for new equipment by the private sector will grow somewhat faster than other types of investment. Sharp increases in defense spending for 

materials and supplies are expected in the 1980’s, but 

the nondefense portion of Federal purchases is foreseen 

to show no growth. Drastic cutbacks in imports of 

crude oil are assumed in each scenario. However, oil 

imports, as well as domestic output of crude oil and 

other fuels, are greater in the high-trend alternatives, reflecting the high overall levels of industrial production 

anticipated in these versions of the economy. More details about the assumptions and economic projections 

are given in other articles in this issue of the Review.

Total employment in the low-trend scenario increases 

by 22.5 percent between 1978 and 1990, from 97.6 to 

119.6 million.3 In high-trend I, employment is expected 

to rise by 31 percent during the same period, to 127.9 

million in 1990; in high-trend II, it is projected at 121.4 

million, or 24.4 percent above the 1978 level. The rate 

of employment growth in high-trend I is somewhat 

faster than during the previous two decades, while the 

rates for the other two scenarios are slower.

Employment in white-collar occupations is expected 

to expand faster than total employment in each version 

of the economy. In the low-trend scenario, white-collar 

jobs rise from 48.6 million in 1978 to 60.7 million in 

1990. The 1990 high-trend projections range from 61.6 

to 64.7 million. Employment in blue-collar occupations 

is projected to grow slower than total employment in 

each version. Blue-collar jobs increase from 31.8 million 

in 1978 to 37.7 million in 1990 in the low-trend projection, while high-trend projections for 1990 range from

38.3 to 40.7 million.

Despite the difference in these estimates among the 

alternatives, the proportions of total employment accounted for by white-collar and blue-collar jobs do not 

change substantially. The former increases from 49.8 

percent in 1978 to between 50.6 and 50.9 percent in

1990, while the latter declines from 32.6 percent in 1978 

to between 31.8 and 31.5 percent in 1990.

Service workers continue to be the fastest growing 

major occupational category. The number of service 

jobs rises from 14.4 million in 1978 to 18.9 million in 

1990 in the low-trend version, while the high-trend projections range from 19.2 to 20.1 million. The share of 

total jobs accounted for by service occupations increases from 14.8 percent in 1978 to between 15.7 and

15.8 percent in 1990. On the other hand, the number of 

farmworkers, is expected to continue declining. Their 

share of total jobs is projected to decrease from 2.8 percent in 1978 to between 1.9 and 1.8 percent in 1990.

Although service occupations, with projected employment increases ranging between 31.4 and 39.3 percent, 

are expected to be the fastest growing occupational 

group during 1978-90, the largest number of new jobs 

will occur in the white- and blue-collar categories. (See 

chart 1.) The projected increase in white-collar jobs for 

this period ranges from about 12.1 to 16.1 million, and 

the corresponding range for blue-collar jobs is approximately 5.9 to 8.9 million. The number of new service jobs 

is expected to run between 4.5 and 5.7 million.

Job growth in blue-collar occupations is affected relatively more by differences among the three scenarios 

than in other major occupational categories. The number of new jobs projected for all occupations during 

1978-90 is almost 22 million in the low-trend version, 

compared with 30.3 million in high-trend alternative I, 

a difference of 37.8 percent. However, the difference is

50.1 percent for blue-collar occupations alone. These 

occupations are sensitive to high-trend I because they 

are concentrated in manufacturing industries, and the 

demand for manufactured goods is relatively greater in 

this version of the economy. Demand for manufactured 

goods also is greater in the high-trend II scenario, but 

the need for additional blue-collar workers is moderated 

by the higher productivity gains assumed in this version. For all occupations, about 8.5 percent more new 

jobs are projected in high-trend II than in the low-trend 

scenario. The difference for blue-collar jobs is 10.3 percent. Job growth in the white-collar and service categories generally is less affected by differences in the 

scenarios than blue-collar job growth. However, among 

the major occupational groups and detailed occupations 

within these large categories, the sensitivity to these differences varies.

Growth among white-collar groups

Professional and technical workers. Employment in professional and technical jobs was 15.6 million in 1978— 

about 15.9 percent of the national total. Although this 

group includes a wide variety of occupations, generally 

requiring postsecondary education, approximately twothirds of the jobs were accounted for by teachers, medi35

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Ch®e11 . J@h gro^SIh tor m ajor ©©©yputoinsDl categories under iltoimgitihf© @©©5D@mte projddltoin)©,

1978-90

Millions of jobs

-1 L

White-collar workers Blue-collar workers Service workers Farmworkers

cal professionals, health technologists and technicians,

engineers, and engineering and science technicians.

Over the past two decades, the professional and technical group has been one of the fastest growing occupational categories. For example, between 1966 and 1978

employment in this group increased almost twice as fast

as it did in all occupations. Between 1978 and 1990,

employment is projected to continue to rise faster than

employment in all occupations in each of the alternative

scenarios, but the difference is anticipated to be less

than in the past. In the low-trend version of the economy, employment of .professional and technical workers

is projected to increase by 28.7 percent over “the same

period. The growth in the high-trend I version is 35.7

percent and that for high-trend II is 30.4 percent. (See

table 1.)

While employment in professional and technical jobs

as a whole is expected to increase faster than the average rate for all occupations, there will be significant

differences among individual fields. For example, employment in most medical and health occupations is

projected to expand very rapidly, while in many teaching occupations it is expected to decline. Rising incomes

and greater health consciousness will boost demand for

health care, as will population growth—especially the

substantia! increase in the number of older people, who

have more need for health services. During the 1980’s,

the number off persons age 75 and over is expected to

advance from 9.4 to 12.0 million. As a result of these

factors, opportunities for professional and technical

workers in hospitals, clinics, laboratories, nursing

homes, and other settings are likely to increase rapidly.

Demand may be very high in rural areas and inner cities, as job openings in less desirable locations have traditionally been difficult to ill. In contrast to the rapid

employment growth projected in the health field, job®

for secondary, college, and university teachers are

expected to decrease somewhat as a result of the decline

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in births that occurred in the 1960’s and 1970’s. Demand for secondary schoolteachers could fall precipitously in the Northeast and North Central States, 

where the Bureau of the Census projects a drop of close 

to 25 percent in the number of 15- to 19-year-olds between 1980 and 1990. A growing number of adults have 

entered college in recent years, but their enrollment is 

not expected to completely offset the decline in traditional-age college students. In contrast, a small increase 

in the demand for preschool, kindergarten, and elementary teachers is anticipated, reflecting recent increases in 

births, as a growing number of women enter the prime 

childbearing ages. More opportunities for adult education teachers are also foreseen.

The demand for professional and technical workers as 

a group is less sensitive to differences among the scenarios than the demand for workers in all occupations. 

However, within the professional and technical group, 

sensitivity varies. The demand for teachers is not 

affected significantly by differences in the scenarios. But 

alternative versions of the economy do have an impact 

on the projections for engineers and engineering and 

science technicians because these occupations are concentrated in manufacturing industries. Because the hightrend alternatives assume lower corporate tax rates and 

other incentives designed to stimulate business investment in new equipment, employment requirements in 

manufacturing industries which produce this equipment 

are higher. For example, in high-trend I, engineering 

employment is expected to rise by 553,(XX) between 

1978 and 1990, compared with an increase of only 

433,000 in the low-trend projection, which would mean 

about 27.7 percent more new jobs for engineers during 

the period.

Managers and administrators. The 8.8 million workers 

in this broad group in 1978 included managers and administrators at all levels of business and government, 

from corporate executives and government officials to 

managers of small businesses such as restaurants and 

repair shops. A relatively large proportion of managers 

—nearly 1 of 5— were self-employed.

Employment in this group is projected to grow more 

slowly than the average during 1978-90 in each scenario. Projected increases range from 19.1 percent in the 

low-trend version to between 21.3 and 27.9 percent in 

the high-trend alternatives. The demand for managers is 

more sensitive to the differences in the three scenarios 

than that for all occupations.

Despite an overall increase in the managerial group, 

the number of self-employed managers has been declining, and this trend is expected to continue in the lowtrend and high-trend II scenarios. However, in hightrend I a small increase in self-employed managers is 

projected.

Salesworkers. Employment in sales occupations totaled 

approximately 6.4 million in 1978, or about 6.6 percent 

of employment in all occupations. Nearly half of these 

workers were concentrated in retail trade, and most of 

the remainder worked in manufacturing and in service 

industries such as finance, insurance, and real estate. 

Employment in sales jobs is projected to grow faster 

than the average for all occupations during 1978-90 in 

each version of the economy.

Employment of salesworkers rises from 6.4 to 8.0 

million between 1978 and 1990 in the low-trend version, 

or 24.4 percent. Projected increases range from 25.8 to

34.5 percent in the high-trend versions. The demand for

Table 1. Employment by major occupational group, actual 1978, and alternative projections for 1990

[Numbers in thousands]

O ccupational group

1978

1080 Percentage change in em ploym ent, 

1978-60

Low-trend High-trend I H igh-trend II

Low -trend High-trend

1

High-trend

II Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Total ......................................................... 97,610 100.0 119,590 100.0 127,907 100.0 121,447 100.0 22.5 31.0 24.4

White-collar workers .......................................... 48,608 49.8 60,730 50.9 64,712 50.6 61,570 50.7 24.9 33.1 26.7

Professional and technical workers .... 15,568 15.9 20,038 16.8 21,119 16.5 20,295 16.7 28.7 35.7 30.4

Managers and administrators.................... 8,802 9.0 10,484 8.8 11,257 8.8 10,677 8.8 19.1 27.9 21.3

S alesw orkers............................................... 6,420 6.6 7,989 6.7 8,632 6.8 8,079 6.7 24.4 34.5 25.8

Clerical w o rk e rs .......................................... 17,818 18.3 22,219 18.6 23,705 18.5 22,519 18.5 24.7 33.0 26.4

Blue-collar workers ............................................. 31,812 32.6 37,720 31.5 40,694 31.8 38,330 31.6 18.6 27.9 20.5

Craft and kindred w o rk e rs ......................... 11,705 12.0 14,366 1| ° 15,555 12.2 14,668 12.1 22.7 32.9 25.3

O peratives.................................................... 14,205 14.6 16,399 13.7 17,697 13.8 16,584 13.7 15.4 24.6 16.8

Nonfarm la b o re rs ........................................ 5,902 6.0 6,955 5.8 7,441 5.8 7,078 5.8 17.8 26.1 19.9

Service w orkers.................................................... 14,414 14.8 18,946 15.8 20,074 15.7 19,220 15.8 31.4 39.3 33.3

Private household workers ...................... 1,160 1.2 982 0.8 993 0.8 988 0.8 -15 .4 -1 4 .4 -1 4 .9

Other service w o rk ers ................................ 13,254 13.6 17,965 15.0 19,081 14.9 18,232 15.0 35.5 44.0 37.6

Farm w orkers......................................................... 2,775 2.8 2,193 1.8 2,426 1.9 2,327 1.9 -2 1 .0 -1 2 .6 -1 6 .3

Note: Due to rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.

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salespersons is slightly more sensitive to the differences 

in the low-trend and high-trend I scenarios than it is for 

workers in all occupations. However, differences between the low-trend and high-trend II scenarios have 

relatively little effect on the demand for salesworkers.

Clerical workers. Clerical occupations account for more 

jobs than any other occupational group. About 17.8 

million persons or 18.3 percent of all workers, were in 

clerical occupations in 1978; nearly 1 of 5 clericals was 

either a secretary or a typist. Some other large occupations within this group were general office clerks, cashiers, bookkeepers, and stock clerks.

Employment of clerical workers is projected to grow 

faster than the average rate of employment growth in 

each version of the economy. Although office automation will enable clerical personnel to do more work in 

less time and change skill requirements for some jobs, 

continued increases in the demand for new workers are 

anticipated in most occupations. Demand should be 

particularly strong in the private sector, in industries 

such as retail trade, finance, insurance, real estate, 

legal services, and health services. At the same time, 

little increase in government employment of clericals is 

projected.

Employment in clerical occupations increased 24.7 

percent between 1978 and 1990 in the low-trend version 

of the economy. In high-trend I, the projected increase 

is 33 percent, and in high-trend II, 26.4 percent. For 

clerical workers, demand is slightly less sensitive to the 

differences in the low-trend and high-trend I scenarios 

than it is for workers in all occupations. For example, 

the number of new clerical jobs in high-trend I is 33.8 

percent greater than that projected in the low-trend version, compared with a difference of 37.8 percent for all 

occupations.

Growth among blue-collar groups

Craft and kindred workers. The 11.7 million craftworkers employed in 1978 represented about 12 percent 

of total employment. Construction trade workers and 

mechanics, the two largest occupational categories in 

the craft group, accounted for more than half of the 

group’s employment. Other blue-collar categories are 

supervisors, metalworking craftworkers, and printing 

trades workers. Employment in the craft group is projected to increase slightly faster than the average rate 

for all occupations in each of the scenarios.

In the low-trend version of the economy, employment 

in the construction crafts grows from almost 3 million 

in 1978 to about 3.7 million in 1990, an increase of 27 

percent. However, most of this growth is expected before 1985. Demand for homeownership that was thwarted during the recession years of 1975 and 1980 should

spur residential investment expenditures in the first half 

of the 1980’s. However, after 1985 it is anticipated that 

the rate of new household formation will decline, reflecting the decrease in births that began in the 1960’s. 

Business investment in construction of new plants and 

buildings is expected to offset some of the slack in residential construction during the late 1980’s.

Employment of mechanics in the low-trend version is 

projected to rise from almost 3.8 to 4.8 million between 

1978 and 1990, or 26.8 percent. However, rates of 

change vary considerably among the individual occupations. For example, the number of data processing machine mechanics is projected to increase 147.6 percent, 

while that of railroad car repairers is expected to decline. The number of workers in the metalworking 

crafts expands almost as fast as the average rate for all 

occupations in the low-trend version, but printing 

trades workers are projected to increase much more 

slowly than average. Improvements in printing technology have increased productivity and this trend should 

continue.

The demand for craftworkers is more sensitive to differences in the alternative scenarios than the demand 

for workers in all occupations. The projected number of 

new jobs for craftworkers in the high-trend alternatives 

is 11.3 to 44.7 percent higher than in the low-trend version. In comparison, the projected number of new jobs 

in all occupations in the high-trend alternatives ranged 

from 8.5 to 37.8 percent greater than those in the lowtrend version of the economy.

Craft occupations that are concentrated in manufacturing industries, such as the metalworking crafts and 

printing trades, are particularly sensitive to differences 

in the scenarios. For example, employment in metalworking crafts increases by 283,000 in the high-trend I 

projection, which is 65 percent greater than the projected increase of 172,000 in the low-trend version. A large 

proportion of metalworking craft employment is found 

in factories that produce equipment for business and industrial use. Because growth in investment for equipment is much faster in high-trend I, employment requirements will be greater in most industries that 

manufacture fabricated metal products, machinery, electrical equipment, and transportation equipment. In 

some industries, the number of new metalworking craft 

jobs in high-trend I is more than twice the number in 

the low-trend version.

Operatives. Included in this group are many of the bluecollar workers associated with manufacturing and transportation operations. About 14.2 million operatives 

were employed in 1978. More than 80 percent worked 

at manufacturing jobs such as assembler, machine tool 

operator, welder, and inspector. Outside of manufactur38

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ing, operatives were concentrated in transportation and 

trade. Many were transport equipment operators, such 

as track or bus drivers.

Employment of operatives is projected to grow 

slower than the average for all occupations in the 

1978-90 period. More efficient production as a result of 

greater investment in new plants and equipment should 

limit increases in the demand for operatives in factories. 

However, growth rates for individual occupations will 

vary, depending on the particular industries in which 

they are employed. Generally, occupations that are concentrated in the durable goods sector are projected to 

grow faster than those in industries that make 

nondurable goods. As family incomes rise, consumers 

are expected to spend an increasing proportion of income on automobiles, furniture, and other durable 

goods, and a decreasing proportion on nondurables, 

such as food and basic clothing.

High-trend alternative I affects the growth of operatives more than that of any other occupational group. 

In the low-trend version, operative employment is projected at 6.4 million in 1990, an increase of 2.2 million 

over the 1978 level. The anticipated operative growth in 

high-trend I is 3.5 million, or 59.2 percent greater than 

the low-trend number. By comparison, the gain in 

growth for all occupations is only 37.8 percent. On the 

other hand, high-trend alternative II results in only an

8.3-percent greater number of new jobs than the lowtrend version, which is about the same as the percentage gain for all occupations under this alternative.

Manufacturing output is much greater in high-trend I 

than in the low-trend scenario, which results in a higher 

demand for operatives, although the difference in the 

employment projections is moderated by the assumption that productivity will also be greater. In contrast, 

the dissimilarity in the two high-trend employment projections for operatives is largely a result of different projected increases in manufacturing productivity. Between 

1978 and 1990, productivity in manufacturing industries 

rises 33.7 percent in alternative II compared with 26.3 

percent in alternative I. A slightly higher rate of increase in manufacturing output in alternative I also contributes to the difference in the employment projections.

Service workers

Service workers, except private household. Numbering

13.2 million in 1978, these service jobs accounted for 

about 13.6 percent of total employment. Employment in 

this group is expected to increase faster than in any other occupational group through the 1980’s in each scenario of the economy. Projected 1978-90 increases 

range from 35.5 percent in the low-trend version to 44 

percent in high-trend I. Employment growth is expected 

to be particularly rapid in food service occupations,

to be such as waiters’ assistants and in health service 

occupations, such as nurses’ aides and medical assistants. The greater health care needs of a growing elderly population will spur demand for service workers in 

hospitals and nursing homes. The demand for food service workers should also grow as incomes rise and more 

families have both husbands and wives working. Employment of police officers, firefighters, and most other 

protective service workers is projected to grow slower 

than the average for service occupations, but faster than 

that for all occupations. Projected growth rates are 

mixed among personal service occupations. For example, rapid increases in the demand for childcare workers 

and welfare service aides are anticipated, but only moderate increases in employment are expected for barbers 

and cosmetologists.

Demand for this group of service workers is less sensitive to differences in the three scenarios than for most 

other occupational groups. For example, employment in 

the high-growth projection I is only 23.7-percent greater than employment in the low-growth projection, compared with the 37.8-percent difference for all occupations. It is assumed that the additional increases in 

personal income in the high-trend versions will be spent 

primarily on goods rather than on services.

Private household workers. In contrast to the rapid employment gain anticipated for other service workers, the 

number of private household workers is projected to decrease from almost 1.2 million in 1978 to between 

993,OCX) and 982,(XX) in 1990. A continued decline is 

expected, despite an increase,in job opportunities for 

private household workers. The demand for maids and 

other private household workers should rise as more 

women work outside the home and personal incomes 

rise, but fewer people will seek employment in private 

households because of low wages, lack of advancement 

opportunities, and low social status associated with 

these jobs.

Farmworkers

More than half of the almost 2,8 million farmworkers 

employed in 1978 were farmers, including both owners 

and tenant farmers; most of the remainder were farm laborers. A small proportion were managers and supervisors. Employment of farmworkers has declined for 

decades as farm productivity has risen as a result of 

larger, more efficient farms, improvements in mechanized equipment, and technological innovations in seed, 

feed, and fertilizer. Continued drops in the number of 

farmworkers are expected through the 1980’s. In the 

low-trend version, employment falls, from almost 2.8 

million in 1978 to 2.2 million in 1990, a decrease of 21 

percent. The projected declines are more moderate in

39

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
the high-trend versions, 12.6 percent in I and 16.3 percent in II. The number of farmers is projected to fall 

less rapidly than the number of farm laborers in each 

alternative.

jobs in the low-trend version are presented in the list 

which follows. In both high-trend alternatives, licensed 

practical nurses drop from this list (but remain in the 

top 25), and are replaced by carpenters:

Detailed occupations

Table 2 presents 1978-90 employment projections for 

all detailed occupations in the industry-occupation matrix with employment of 25,000 or more in 1978.4 Approximately 340 occupations were in this category, and 

they accounted for about three-fourths of total employment in 1978. Projected rates of employment change for 

these selected occupations cover broad ranges in the 

three scenarios. For example, low-trend projections run 

from a 25.4-percent decline for farm laborers to a 

147.6-percent increase for data processing machine mechanics. Rankings of occupations by projected growth 

rates are very similar for the three scenarios. The following list presents the 20 most rapidly growing detailed occupations among the low-trend projections:

Percent growth

in employment,

Occupation 1978-90

Data processing machine m echanics............. . 147.6

Paralegal personnel ............................................. 132.4

Computer systems analysts ................................ 107.8

Computer operators.................................................... 87.9

Office machine and cash register servicers . . . 80.8

Computer programmers ..................................... 73.6

Aero-astronautic engineers.................................. 70.4

Food preparation and service workers, fast

food restaurants.................................................... 68.8

Employment interviewers .................................. 66.6

Tax preparers .......................................................... 64.5

Correction officials and ja ile r s................................. 60.3

A rchitects........................................................ 60.2

Dental hygienists............................................... . 57.9

Physical therapists...................................................... 57.6

Dental assistants ......................................................... 57.5

Peripheral EDP equipment operators .................... 57.3

Child-care attendants................................................. 56.3

Veterinarians.......................................................... 56.1

Travel agents and accomodations appraisers . . 55.6

Nurses’ aides and orderlies ...................................... 54.6

In high-trend alternative I, correction officials and 

jailers, dental hygienists, and dental assistants drop off 

the list of the 20 fastest growing occupations, and are 

replaced by real estate sales agents and representatives, 

dental lab technicians, and security sales agents and 

representatives. In high-trend II, dental assistants and 

travel agents drop off the list and are replaced by real 

estate sales agents and representatives, and economists. 

However, in both high-trend alternatives the displaced 

occupations remain among the 30' fastest growing.

The rank of occupations by growth in numbers; of 

jobs also changes little from one scenario to another. 

The 20 occupations with the largest numbers of new

Growth in

employment

(in thousands),

Occupation 1978-90

Janitors and sextons................................................. 671.2

Nurses’ aides and orderlies.................................... 594.0

Sales clerks................................................................. 590.7

Cashiers . . .................................................................. 545.5

Waiters/waitresses.................................................... 531.9

General clerks, o ffic e ......................................... 529.8

Professional nurses............................................. 515.8

Food preparation and service workers, fast

food restaurants .................................................... 491.9

Secretaries . . . .......................................................... 487.8

Truckdrivers............................................................... 437.6

Kitchen helpers.................................................. 300.6

Elementary schoolteachers ............................. 272.8

T ypists.................................................................. 262.1

Accountants and auditors................................ 254.2

Helpers, trades .................................................. 232.5

Blue-collar worker supervisors........................ 221.1

Bookkeepers, h an d............................................. 219.7

Licensed practical nurses ................................ 215.6

Guards and doorkeepers................................... 209.9

Automotive m echanics..................................... 205.3

The low-trend version projects employment declines 

for 22 of the detailed occupations and high-trend II 

projects drops for 21; the rankings by rates of decline 

are similar for both scenarios. The number of occupations with projected employment decreases falls to 18 in 

high-trend I. However, the reversals in the direction of 

change are not dramatic, and usually make relatively 

little difference in the projected employment levels.

New date base

The method used by BLS to develop occupational projections requires two basic inputs—projected employment by industry at a detailed industry level and 

projected occupational staffing patterns at the same industry detail. The occupational projections prepared by 

BLS are obtained by applying the projected occupational 

staffing patterns to the related industry employment 

projections and summing across the detailed industries.5 

The Bureau has used this procedure to develop national 

occupational projections since the mid-1960’s.6

During the 1960’s and 1970’s, decennial census data 

were the primary data source for developing occupational staffing patterns of industries. These patterns 

were based largely on trends in the census data from 

decade to decade. However, because census data are 

collected only every 10 years, they were considered inadequate for analyzing trends in industry staffing patterns. In the 1970’s, the Bureau initiated the OccupaDigitized for FRASER 

40

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 2. Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990

Occupation

Employment (in thousands) Percent change, 1978-80

1978 1SS0

Low-trend

19S0

High-trend 1

1SS0

High-trend II Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend II

Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 97,610 119,590 127,907 121,447 22.52 31.04 24.42

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .............................................................. 15,570 20,038 21,119 20,295 28.70 35.64 30.34

Engineers....................................................................................................................... 1,071 1,504 1,624 1,531 40.41 51.61 42.92

Aero-astronautic engineers .................................................................................. 57 98 104 100 70.35 80.86 74.81

Chemical engineers................................................................................................. 53 68 73 70 28.92 37.70 31.80

Civil engineers ........................................................................................................ 149 208 218 211 39.38 45.59 40.97

Electrical engineers................................................................................................. 291 441 479 448 51.18 64.41 53.90

Industrial e ngineers................................................................................................. 109 146 159 148 34.03 46.49 36.37

Mechanical engineers ............................................................................................ 199 274 300 279 37.56 50.67 40.18

Life and physical scientists ....................................................................................... 236 299 316 304 26.44 33.63 28.70

Biological scie n tists................................................................................................ 42 51 54 53 21.82 28.86 24.98

Chemists .................................................................................................................. 90 113 120 115 24.95 32.19 27.23

Geologists ............................................................................................................... 33 50 53 51 52.08 61.36 52.69

Engineering and science technicians........................................................................ 1,160 1,577 1,700 1,609 35.97 46.54 38.73

D ra fte rs .................................................................................................................... 293 412 446 419 40.59 52.25 43.20

Electrical and electronic technicians ................................................................... 319 464 512 478 45.42 60.24 49.79

Industrial engineering technicians ........................................................................ 31 40 44 41 30.37 41.33 32.09

Mechanical engineering technicians ................................................................... 45 61 67 62 35.96 49.67 38.75

S urveyors.................................................................................................................. 54 73 78 76 35.19 44.73 39.91

Metfcal workers, except technicians ..................................................................... 2,026 2,928 3,094 2,954 44.55 52.77 45.83

Dentists .................................................................................................................... 149 208 223 212 39.59 49.24 42.37

Dietitians .................................................................................................................. 41 61 65 62 49.69 58.61 53.43

Nurses, professional .............................................................................................. 1,026 1,542 1,618 1,551 50.28 57.69 51.20

O ptom etrists............................................................................................................. 25 33 36 33 29.66 40.65 31.20

P harm acists............................................................................................................. 140 159 171 157 13.36 22.36 12.10

Physicians, medical and osteopathic................................................................... 447 626 665 631 39.98 48.70 41.23

Therapists .......... ................................................................................................. 139 210 220 213 51.51 58.67 53.19

Physical therapists.............................................................................................. 31 49 52 50 57.63 66.46 59.73

Speech and hearing clinicians.......................................................................... 34 52 53 52 54.50 58.29 55.33

Veterinarians ........................................................................................................... 30 47 51 50 56.13 70.27 66.11

Health technologists and technicians ..................................................................... 1,246 1,811 1,906 1,820 45.34 52.93 46.03

Dental assistants...................................................................................................... 123 193 198 191 57.48 60.95 55.91

Dental hygienists...................................................................................................... 53 84 86 84 57.92 61.42 56.38

Health records technologists ............................................................................... 30 44 46 44 47.10 53.57 47.26

Licensed practical nurses .................................................................................... 491 707 752 717 43.89 52.98 45.96

Medical technicians................................................................................................. 82 119 127 119 46.04 55.31 46.36

Medical lab technologists....................................................................................... 98 141 149 141 43.90 52.70 44.32

Surgical technicians................................................................................................. 30 44 46 44 48.13 54.63 48.00

X-ray technicians ................................................................................................... 86 126 133 126 47.44 54.71 47.21

Technicians, excluding health, science, and engineering..................................... 271 343 362 347 26.82 33.78 28.11

Airplane p ilo ts ........................................................................................................... 74 94 101 96 27.00 35.47 28.81

Air traffic controllers .............................................................................................. 28 34 34 34 21.67 24.18 21.93

Technical assistants, lib ra ry .................................................................................. 34 48 49 48 42.07 42.78 41.71

Computer specialists................................................................................................... 389 738 793 754 89.83 104.05 93.94

Computer programmers ....................................................................................... 204 354 381 361 73.57 86.90 77.22

Computer systems a na lysts.................................................................................. 185 384 412 392 107.75 122.97 112.38

Social scientists ........................................................................................................... 176 243 256 248 38.12 45.51 41.26

Econom ists............................................................................................................... 27 41 43 42 54.17 62.93 56.30

Psychologists . . , ! ................................................................................................. 78 107 111 109 36.79 42.69 39.31

T e a c h e rs ....................................................................................................................... 3,877 4,079 4,113 4,074 5.22 6.09 5.08

Adult education te a c h e rs ....................................................................................... 105 123 126 124 18.02 20.75 18.31

College and university teachers ................................ .......................................... 618 557 560 556 -9 .7 8 -9 .3 0 -9.9 7

Teachers, vocational education and training ................................................. 26 33 34 33 26.49 30.29 26.85

Teachers, college .............................................................................................. 454 409 410 408 -10 .06 -9 .7 2 -10 .28

Graduate assistants............................................................................................ 131 110 110 109 -16 .45 -16 .13 -16 .65

Elementary schoolteachers .................................................................................. 1,277 1,550 1,556 1,546 21.37 21.82 21.08

Preschool and kindergarten teachers ................................................................ 455 574 579 572 26.16 27.31 25.75

Secondary schoolteachers.................................................................................... 1,229 1,071 1,075 1,068 -12.87 -12.54 -13 .08

Selected writers, artists, and e ntertainers.............................................................. 888 1,117 1,198 1,134 25.78 34.93 27.75

Commeraal artists ................................................................................................. 100 122 134 126 22.25 33.97 26.58

D esigners.................................................................................................................. 169 194 212 190 15.22 25.49 12.87

Musicians, instrumental ......................................................................................... 126 160 166 166 27.15 31.73 31.67

Photographers ........................................................................................................ 77 104 113 104 35.95 47.21 35.30

Public relations sp e cialists.................................................................................... 81 102 109 104 26.06 34.81 29.15

Radio and TV announcers.................................................................................... 46 66 68 66 43.02 48.74 43.35

Reporters and correspondents............................................................................. 54 68 74 70 27.59 37.44 31.25

Sports instructors ................................................................................................... 34 41 43 41 20.16 26.64 20.56

Writers and editors ................................................................................................. 109 142 155 146 30.33 41.59 34.03

Other professional and technical w o rk e rs .............................................................. 4,183 5,338 5,692 5,457 27.61 36.07 30.46

Accountants and auditors .................................................................................... 777 1,031 1,107 1,055 32.72 42.50 35.83

Appraisers, real estate ......................................................................................... 32 47 50 48 46.38 56.88 49.79

A rc hitects.................................................................................................................. 66 106 112 109 60.20 70.18 64.53

Assessors ................................................................................................................ 30 38 38 38 28.03 30.27 28.26

Buyers, retail and wholesale trade ..................................................................... 238 296 320 298 24.37 34.15 25.13

Caseworkers ........................................................................................................... 236 338 350 3^6 43.32 48.42 46.57

Clergy ....................................................................................................................... 287 292 313 301 1.67 9.19 5.12

Community organization workers ........................................................................ 49 71 74 73 46.74 51.38 49.76

Cost estimators ...................................................................................................... 80 105 112 108 31.80 40.84 34.94

Directors, religious education and activities ...................................................... 36 37 40 38 3.29 11.13 6.96

Employment interviews ......................................................................................... 51 86 95 88 66.59 85.55 72.02

41

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 2. Continued—Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990

Occupation

Em ploym ent (in thousands) Percent change, 1973-80

1978 1980

Low-trend High-trend I

18S0

High-trend II Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend II

F o re s te rs .................................................................................................................. 26 32 34 33 22.15 27.33 25.25

Law clerks ............................................................................................................... 30 43 48 44 44.04 62.47 49.85

L a w y e rs .................................................................................................................... 380 524 580 543 37.85 52.71 43.05

Paralegal personnel .............................................................................................. 28 66 75 69 132.35 165.68 142.99

L ibrarians.................................................................................................................. 130 139 142 140 6.78 8.76 7.12

Personnel anr lbor relations specialists........................................................... 169 205 217 208 21.08 28.21 22.86

Purchasing agents and buyers ............................................................................. 164 200 214 202 21.96 30.69 23.69

Recreation woi kers, g ro u p .................................................................................... 121 152 160 157 26.41 32.63 29.99

Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue a g e n ts ............................................... 50 60 61 60 19.39 21.65 19.61

Tax preparers.......................................................................................................... 29 47 54 51 64.52 87.75 77.93

Travel agents and accommodations a pp ra isers............................................... 45 70 74 70 55.64 65.46 56.08

Underwriters............................................................................................................. 70 90 93 90 28.40 33.86 28.98

Vocational and educational co u n s e lo rs.............................................................. 202 212 215 213 4.66 6.29 5.27

Managers, officials, and proprietors ........................................................................ 8,802 10,484 11,257 10,677 19.10 27.89 21.31

Auto parts department m a nagers........................................................................ 48 54 59 59 13.20 23.01 23.28

Auto service department managers ................................................................... 60 69 75 75 15.02 24.97 25.46

Construction inspectors, public administration ................................................. 44 61 62 61 37.37 39.81 37.62

Inspectors, excluding construction, public adm inistration................................ 104 125 128 125 20.58 22.88 20.82

Postmasters and mail superintendents ...................................................... . 28 29 30 29 4.07 7.92 4.84

Railroad conductors .............................................................................................. 33 31 34 32 -6 .6 3 2.93 -5 .5 2

Restaurant, cafe, and bar m anagers................................................................... 499 642 680 650 28.65 36.25 30.27

Sales managers, retail trade ............................................................................... 261 323 351 323 24.14 34.83 23.93

Store managers ...................................................................................................... 926 1,102 1,183 1,107 18.95 27.76 19.52

W h olesalers............................................................................................................. 234 279 307 284 19.60 31.35 21.42

S alesw orkers................................................................ .............................................. 6,443 7,989 8,632 8,079 23.99 33.97 25.40

Real estate b ro ke rs................................................................................................ 34 48 52 49 42.34 55.92 44.47

Sales agents and representatives, real e s ta te ................................................. 255 394 430 400 54.09 68.42 56.74

Sales agents and representatives, insurance.................................................... 310 399 420 405 28.61 35.66 30.81

Sales agents and representatives, security ...................................................... 55 80 92 88 45.79 66.81 60.70

S a le s c le rk s ............................................................................................................. 2,771 3,362 3,601 3,362 21.32 29.96 21.32

Clerical w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................... 17,820 22,219 23,705 22,519 24.69 33.03 26.37

Adjustment c le rk s ................................................................................................... 37 45 48 46 23.89 29.83 24.57

Bank tellers ............................................................................................................. 440 601 619 606 36.40 40.61 37.51

New accounts te lle rs ......................................................................................... 48 65 67 66 34.65 39.23 36.57

Tellers .................................................................................................................. 392 536 552 540 36.62 40.78 37.62

Bookkeepers and accounting c le r k s ................................................................... 1,628 1,982 2,131 2,014 21.79 30.95 23.72

Accounting clerks .............................................................................................. 700 835 895 845 19.27 27.82 20.74

Bookkeepers, hand ............................................................................................ 927 1,147 1,236 1,168 23.69 33.32 25.96

C ashiers.................................................................................................................... 1,501 2,046 . 2,165 2,070 36.35 44.27 37.96

Claims a dju sters...................................................................................................... 65 95 98 95 46.63 51.65 47.21

Claims clerks .......................................................................................................... 63 92 96 93 47.26 52.78 48.08

Claims examiners, insurance ............................................................................... 38 58 59 58 51.53 54.74 52.29

Clerical supervisors................................................................................................ 402 518 552 526 29.01 37.45 30.81

Collectors, bill and account .................................................................................. 85 108 119 113 26.52 39.53 32.26

Credit clerks, banking and insurance ............ ................................................... 47 62 68 66 31.00 43.91 39.79

Desk clerks, except bowling f lo o r ........................................................................ 75 97 109 98 29.27 46.09 30.91

Dispatchers, police, fire, and a m bu la nce ........................................................... 46 60 61 60 28.22 30.47 28.45

Dispatchers, vehicle service or w o rk ................................................................... 89 108 116 107 21.58 29.62 20.55

Eligibility workers, welfare .................................................................................... 30 38 39 39 29.67 32.16 30.28

File clerks ............................................................................................................... 251 328 349 332 30.77 39.31 32.42

General clerks, office ............................................................................................ 2,269 2,799 3,002 2,839 23.35 32.28 25.11

Insurance clerks, m edical...................................................................................... 63 93 97 92 46.69 53.95 45.77

Library assistants ................................................................................................... 117 128 129 128 8.77 9.98 8.74

Mail carriers, postal s e rv ic e .................................................................................. 237 260 270 262 9.77 13.83 10.58

Mail clerks ............................................................................................................... 75 94 99 96 25.19 31.61 27.50

Marking clerks, tra d e .............................................................................................. 44 54 57 55 21.24 27.88 23.46

Messengers ............................................................................................................. 47 60 64 61 28.24 37.38 31.97

Meter readers, u tilitie s ............................................................................................ 28 32 38 32 14.64 33.57 15.04

Office machine operators....................................................................................... 842 1,133 1,211 1,147 34.52 43.85 36.21

Bookkeeping and billing operators................................................................... 218 283 301 283 29.84 37.92 29.41

Bookkeeping, billing machine o p e ra to rs .................................................... 166 212 228 212 27.72 37.57 27.63

Proof machine operators ............................................................................. 44 60 61 59 37.07 39.56 35.56

Computer, peripheral equipment operators ................................................. 215 389 415 397 81.32 93.19 84.73

Computer ope ra to rs....................................................................................... 169 317 338 323 87.90 100.74 91.71

Peripheral EDP equipment o pe ra to rs......................................................... 46 72 76 73 57.26 65.55 59.15

Duplicating machine operators ........................................................................ 31 38 41 39 22.46 31.01 24.56

Keypunch operators ......................................................................................... 295 316 341 321 7.03 15.56 8.78

Order c le rk s ............................................................................................................. 240 289 316 288 20.25 31.49 19.88

Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ............................................................................. 172 211 226 214 22.13 31.01 24.08

Personnel c le rk s ...................................................................................................... 90 111 118 113 23.40 30.14 24.79

Postal c le rk s .............................................................. .............................................. 310 309 321 312 -.2 8 3.41 .46

Procurement c le rk s ................................................................................................. 39 46 50 47 19.53 28.38 20.72

Production clerks ................................................................................................... 192 234 257 238 22.33 34.03 24.48

Raters ........................... ........................................................................................... 51 63 66 64 23.56 28.73 24.14

Receptionists ........................................................................................................... 369 505 540 511 37.00 46.36 38.57

Reservation a g e n ts ................................................................................................ 52 55 59 56 6.64 13.57 7.48

Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p ists.............................................................. 3,574 4,383 4,678 4,458 22.65 30.89 24.72

S ecretaries........................................................................................................... 2,319 2,807 3,007 2,860 21.03 29.64 23.31

Stenographers ........................................................................................................ 262 322 341 326 22.76 30.20 24.46

T y p is ts ....................................................................................................................... 993 1,255 1,330 1,271 26.40 33.98 28.09

Shipping and receiving cle rk s .................................................................................... 378 448 488 452 18.52 28.92 19.38

42

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 2 . Continued—Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990

Occupation

Employment (in thousands) Percent change, 1978-90

1978 1030

Low-trend

1S80

High-trend 1

1930

High-trend II Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend II

Shipping packers ........................................................................................................ 340 398 431 401 17.10 26.90 17.99

Statement clerks ........................................................................................................ 30 44 45 44 45.76 49.57 45.81

Statistical c le rk s ........................................................................................................... 81 95 101 96 16.85 24.09 18.23

Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .............................................................. 787 964 1,043 977 22.44 32.47 24.16

Survey workers .......................................................................................................... 40 48 52 49 17.84 27.72 21.46

Switchboard operators/receptionists ..................................................................... 219 276 298 282 25.96 36.08 28.71

Teacher’s aides, except m onitors............................................................................. 404 497 500 495 23.00 23.79 22.59

Telephone operators................................................................................................... 312 376 414 382 20.60 32.58 22.54

Switchboard operators ......................................................................................... 171 218 234 222 27.65 37.18 30.05

Central office operators......................................................................................... 101 113 128 114 11.24 26.08 12.62

Directory assistance o perators............................................................................. 35 40 45 40 13.47 28.59 14.85

Ticket a g e n ts ............................................................................................................... 49 51 54 51 3.75 10.11 4.61

Town c le rk s .................................................................................................................. 26 33 34 33 28.55 30.80 28.78

W e ig h e rs....................................................................................................................... 35 42 45 42 17.92 26.90 19.15

Crafts and related w o rk e rs ............................................................................................ 11,679 14,366 15,555 14,668 23.01 33.19 25.60

Construction craftworkers ......................................................................................... 2,950 3,747 4,037 3,841 27.04 36.85 30.24

Brickm asons............................................................................................................. 144 204 220 211 41.71 52.76 46.35

C arpenters............................................................................................................... 979 1,183 1,274 1,228 20.82 30.17 25.46

Carpet cutters and layers .................................................................................... 50 65 72 67 29.41 43.35 33.48

Ceiling tile installers and floor la y e rs ................................................................... 25 35 38 36 36.88 50.70 41.16

Concrete and terrazzo finishers .......................................................................... 113 152 164 157 34.61 44.96 38.82

Dry wall installers and lathers ............................................................................. 92 125 135 128 35.46 46.23 38.99

Dry wall applicators............................................................................................ 51 70 76 72 39.20 50.46 43.19

T a p e rs .................................................................................................................. 30 42 46 43 40.68 51.68 43.66

Electricians............................................................................................................... 516 678 726 693 31.44 40.77 34.33

G la z ie rs .................................................................................................................... 35 48 51 49 35.53 44.62 40.02

Painters, construction and maintenance ........................................................... 363 436 477 429 20.02 31.27 18.25

Plumbers and pipefitters ....................................................................................... 375 492 526 504 31.06 40.04 34.40

Roofers .................................................................................................................... 99 130 139 133 31.05 40.91 35.03

Structural steel w o rk ers......................................................................................... 67 90 95 92 33.07 40.57 36.37

Mechanics, repairers, and installers ........................................................................ 3,758 4,764 5,157 4,863 26.77 37.24 29.40

Air conditioning, heating, and refrigerator mechanics ..................................... 165 213 230 216 29.04 39.10 30.65

Aircraft mechanics ................................................................................................ 97 125 133 126 28.32 36.20 29.47

Auto body repairers .............................................................................................. 154 189 201 193 22.67 30.40 25.13

Automotive m echanics............................................................................................ 847 1,052 1,124 1,082 24.25 32.71 27.77

Coin machine servicers and rep a irers ................................................................ 27 29 31 25 9.53 16.43 -7 .7 9

Data processing machine mechanics ................................................................ 63 156 172 162 147.62 173.02 157.14

Diesel mechanics ................................................................................................... 166 214 227 214 29.29 37.24 29.36

Electric power line installers and repairers ...................................................... 157 189 215 192 20.33 36.48 22.12

Cable s p lic e rs ...................................................................................................... 40 48 54 48 18.54 34.14 19.99

Line installers and re p a ire rs ............................................................................. 110 133 151 136 21.30 37.45 23.24

Engineering equipment mechanics ..................................................................... 86 104 112 107 20.83 30.45 24.90

Gas and electric appliance repairers................................................................... 57 70 78 70 21.39 35.29 21.24

Instrument repairers .............................................................................................. 36 42 45 42 14.62 24.03 15.79

Maintenance mechanics ....................................................................................... 346 411 439 418 18.83 27.06 21.10

Maintenance repairers, general utility ................................................................ 626 785 846 795 25.52 35.18 27.01

Millwrights ................................................................................................................ 93 108 114 109 15.47 22.39 16.79

Office machine and cash register s e rvice rs ...................................................... 49 89 96 91 80.78 96.24 86.69

Radio and television repairers ............................................................................. 81 112 122 117 37.56 49.60 44.10

Railroad car repairers ............................................................................................ 30 24 27 25 -18.81 -10 .47 -17 .85

Telephone installers and repairers ..................................................................... 228 273 310 277 20.21 36.29 21.85

Central office repairers .................................................................................... 47 56 63 57 19.40 35.31 20.86

Installers, repairers, and section maintainers ............................................... 69 83 94 84 20.36 36.34 22.01

Station installers ................................................................................................. 55 65 74 66 19.62 35.61 21.11

Metalworking craftworkers, except m echanics................................................. 909 1,081 1,192 1,106 18.96 31.11 21.69

Boilerm akers................................ ....................................................................... 42 52 57 54 25.56 36.70 30.12

Heat treaters, annealers, and te m p e re rs....................................................... 25 29 32 30 16.06 25.79 16.70

Machine tool setters, m etalw orking................................................................ 57 66 74 67 16.10 29.85 18.52

M achinists............................................................................................................. 272 323 358 331 18.82 31.66 21.95

Sheet metal workers and tin sm ith s ................................................................ 205 261 280 267 27.57 36.95 30.63

Tool and die makers ......................................................................................... 166 192 221 197 15.96 33.10 18.79

Printing trades cra ftw o rke rs.................................................................................. 386 442 476 458 14.72 43.55 18.72

Compositors and typesetters ........................... .............................................. 123 121 130 124 -1 .9 2 5.96 1.03

Press and plate p rin te rs .................................................................................... 168 197 211 204 17.42 25.92 21.68

Letter press operators .................................................................................. 36 39 42 40 8.99 17.88 13.64

Offset lithographic press operators ........................................................... 75 92 99 96 22.55 31.91 27.61

Press operators and plate printers ........................................................... 35 41 43 42 16.10 21.82 17.87

Other crafts and related workers ........................................................................ 3,677 4,332 4,693 4,400 17.82 27.64 19.67

B a k e rs .................................................................................................................. 60 72 76 74 20.11 27.22 22.97

Blue-collar worker supervisors ........................................................................ 1,274 1,495 1,616 1,520 17.36 26.87 19.33

Cabinetmakers ................................................................................................... 72 89 95 88 22.96 31.00 21.36

Crane, derrick, and hoist o p e ra to rs ................................................................ 126 146 157 149 15.72 23.73 17.75

Dental lab technicians ....................................................................................... 48 69 79 71 44.91 67.04 48.65

Furniture upholsterers ....................................................................................... 30 38 43 39 27.31 41.84 31.43

Heavy equipment o p e ra to rs ............................................................................. 431 546 598 560 26.57 38.65 29.83

Inspectors............................................................................................................. 475 544 595 554 14.70 25.43 16.73

Jewelers and silversmiths ............................................................................... 29 32 35 31 10.74 21.54 7.24

Merchandise displayers and window trim m e rs ............................................. 26 31 33 32 17.84 26.30 20.68

Opticians ............................................................................................................. 30 42 46 41 38.61 50.56 34.65

Sewage plant ope ra to rs.................................................................................... 38 43 45 43 15.01 18.28 15.26

Stationary engineers ......................................................................................... 60 68 72 68 13.48 19.89 14.40

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Tab!© 2. Continued— Civilian employment in occupations'with 25,000 workers or more, actual 197§ and projected 1990

Employment (in thousands) Percent change, 1978-80

Occupation

1978 1990

Low-trend High-trend 1

1880

High-trend II Low-trend High-trend I High-trend II

Tailors .................................................................................................................. 66 75 83 77 14.34 25.05 16.75

T e s te rs .................................................................................................................. 105 120 130 122 14.55 23.83 16.48

Water treatment plant o pe ra to rs..................................................................... 27 32 33 32 15.98 21.15 16.30

O peratives.................................................................................................................... 14,205 16,399 17,697 16,584 15.44 24.58 16.75

Assemblers ............................................................................................................. 1,672 1,997 2,192 2,029 19.44 31.07 2-1.33

Electrical and electronic a sse m b le rs.............................................................. 207 278 305 281 34.24 47.30 36.07

Electro-mechanical equipment assemblers ................................................. 53 69 78 71 29.89 46.37 32.13

Machine assemblers ......................................................................................... 100 124 144 127 24.76 44.67 27.48

Bindery operatives ................................................................................................. 81 86 94 90 6.57 15.63 10.72

Bindery workers, assem bly............................................................................... 41 43 47 45 6.64 15.99 10.95

Laundering, drycleaning, and pressing machine operators ........................... 316 356 404 375 12.48 27.76 18.68

Laundry operators, small establishm ent.........................................................

Pressers:

34 48 53 49 39.62 56.00 44.80

Hand ................................................................................................................ 30 32 36 33 7.18 19.30 10.79

Machine .......................................................................................................... 54 56 65 59 2.41 18.80 8.76

Machine, laundry ............................................................................................ 66 74 84 78 11.76 26.65 18.08

Washers, machine and starchers ................................................................... 56 79 87 82 41.42 55.69 47.19

Metalworking operatives ....................................................................................... 1,650 1,970 2,211 2,025 19.38 33.97 22.71

Drill press and boring machine operators...................................................... 123 148 167 151 19.57 35.39 22.60

Electroplaters ...................................................................................................... 35 44 48 45 24.38 34.56 27.29

Grinding and abrading machine operators, metal ........................................ 131 154 173 157 17.43 32.37 20.01

Lathe machine operators, metal .....................................................................

Machine tool operators:

153 186 210 191 22.03 37.69 25.29

Combination ................................................................................................... 170 200 226 208 17.91 33.43 21.47

Numerical c o n tro l........................................................................................... 49 61 70 63 24.18 41.49 27.45

Tool r o o m ........................................................................................................ 40 46 52 47 15.31 31.63 17.99

Milling and planing machine o perators........................................................... 68 83 95 86 21.58 39.59 25.21

Power brake and bending machine operators, metal ................................ 41 48 54 49 19.01 32.29 21.31

Punch press operators, m e ta l.......................................................................... 195 217 240 222 11.25 23.05 13.80

Welders and flamecutters ............................................................................... 570 696 784 720 22.14 37.60 26.45

Mine operatives, not elsewhere classified ......................................................... 170 239 259 243 41.00 52.69 43.44

Roustabouts ........................................................................................................ 61 81 85 79 31.42 37.94 29.43

Packing and inspecting operatives ..................................................................... 906 981 1,041 993 8.30 14.93 9.67

Baggers ............................................................................................................... 215 238 250 242 10.64 16.32 12.75

Production packagers ....................................................................................... 612 661 704 669 7.94 15.08 9.35

Selectors, glasswares ....................................................................................... .32 35 35 33 8.84 10.93 3.75

Painters, manufactured articles .......................................................................... 166 205 222 206 23.42 33.46 24.05

Painters, automotive ......................................................................................... 40 56 59 55 40.04 45.98 37.34

Painters, production............................................................................................ 113 132 145 134 17.34 29.04 19.02

Sewers and stitch ers..............................................................................................

Sewing machine operators:

919 967 1,065 987 5.25 15.93 7.39

Regular equipment, g arm e n t........................................................................ 616 634 702 647 2.96 14.02 5.15

Special equipment, g a rm e n t........................................................................ 89 96 108 98 8.61 19.98 11.00

Regular equipment, non g a rm e n t................................................................ 144 161 175 164 12.08 21.22 13.58

Special equipment, nongarment ................................................................ 40 45 49 46 13.10 21.74 14.41

Textile operatives ................................................................................................... 394 399 419 396 1.36 6.53 .58

Folders, hand ...................................................................................................... 27 29 32 30 8.64 19.29 9.13

Spinners, fra m e ................................................................................................... 31 32 32 31 1.38 4.18 -.5 7

W e av ers............................................................................................................... 37 33 33 32 -11.18 -8.8 5 -11 .45

Transport equipment o pe ra tive s.......................................................................... 3,468 4,152 4,428 4,140 19.70 27.68 19.35

Ambulance drivers and attendants ................................................................ 28 41 42 40 45.30 48.79 40.86

Busdrivers .......................................................................................................... 266 326 329 321 22.49 23.76 20.65

Chauffeurs .......................................................................................................... 39 48 52 48 24.63 34.13 24.76

Delivery and route workers ............................................................................. 802 916 991 901 14.28 23.52 12.33

Industrial truck o p e ra to rs .................................................................................. 408 459 493 464 12.50 20.69 13.60

Parking attendants.............................................................................................. 37 44 51 58 21.56 40.23 58.07

Railroad brake o p e ra to rs ................................................................................. 74 67 73 68 -10.27 -1 .2 6 -9 .0 8

Taxi d riv e rs .......................................................................................................... 79 69 78 72 -12 .59 -.8 7 -8 .9 8

Truckdrivers ........................................................................................................ 1,672 2,110 2,246 2,102 26.16 34.30 25.69

All other operatives................................................................................................ 4,311 4,882 5,189 4,936 13.25 20.38 14.52

Asbestos and insulation w o rk e rs ..................................................................... 42 58 62 60 37.75 47.32 41.52

Cutters, m a ch ine ................................................................................................ 29 32 34 32 9.86 16.86 11.83

Dressmakers, except factory .......................................................................... 53 49 53 50 -8 .3 3 -.5 4 -5.41

Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers ........................................................... 127 151 168 155 19.56 33.04 22.66

Fuel pump attendants and lubricators ........................................................... 434 475 492 481 9.51 13.40 10.96

Furnace operators and tenders, except metal ............................................ 62 65 67 65 4.97 9.15 4.98

Stationary boiler firers ..................................................................................

Miscellaneous machine operatives:

47 51 53 51 6.80 10.99 7.13

Lumber and furniture .................................................................................... 51 59 60 56 16.21 18.45 9.74

Chemicals and allied products ................................................................... 153 167 176 172 9.13 15.20 12.82

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics ...........................................................

Miscellaneous operatives, not elsewhere classified:

229 284 292 282 23.99 27.67 23.40

Durable g o o d s ................................................................................................ 103 123 128 123 19.27 24.60 18.90

Nondurable goods ......................................................................................... 249 257 275 258 3.11 10.46 3.69

Mixing operatives................................................................................................ 53 51 55 52 -2 .3 6 4.32 -1.31

O ile rs .................................................................................................................... 40 48 52 49 19.52 30.02 21.65

Photographic process workers ........................................................................ 66 81 89 81 22.68 34.55 22.40

Rotary drill operator h e lp e rs............................................................................. 31 42 45 42 34.02 41.28 32.91

Shear and slitter operators, m e ta l................................................................... 32 37 40 38 15.46 26.45 17.92

Shoemaking machine operators ..................................................................... 68 54 59 55 -19 .98 -13 .07 -19 .24

Surveyor h e lp e rs................................................................................................. 48 68 70 68 39.92 45.20 41.45

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Table 2. Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1978 and projected 1990

Occupation

Employment (in thousands) Percent change, 1978-80

1978 1890

Low-trend

1890

High-trend 1

1880

High-trend II Low-trend High-trend 1 High-trend II

Tire changers and re p a ire rs ............................................................................. 60 71 77 73 17.47 27.18 20.94

Winding operatives, not elsewhere classified ............................................... 48 58 62 59 21.91 30.43 24.02

Coil winders ................................................................................................... 29 37 40 38 27.30 39.55 30.02

Wirers, electronic .............................................................................................. 28 35 38 36 24.46 36.15 28.08

Wood m achinists................................................................................................. 27 33 34 32 23.67 27.82 22.10

Service w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................... 14,414 18,946 20,074 19,220 31.44 39.27 33.34

Food service workers ............................................................................................ 5,610 7,774 8,192 7,827 38.57 46.02 39.53

Bakers, bread and p a s try .................................................................................. 45 57 59 57 27.08 33.19 27.91

Bartenders .......................................................................................................... 347 453 480 457 30.35 38.05 31.64

Butchers and meat c u tte rs ............................................................................... 178 212 225 214 18.64 25.84 19.90

Cooks, except private household ................................................................... 1,024 1,367 1,438 1,379 33.50 40.48 34.74

Cooks, institutional......................................................................................... 296 370 386 378 25.19 30.68 27.69

Cooks, restaurant ......................................................................................... 320 445 471 448 39.18 47.43 40.12

Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s ............................................ 408 552 580 554 35.07 42.13 35.63

Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurant .................... 714 1,206 1,265 1,210 68.84 77.10 69.37

Hosts/hostesses, restaurant, lounge, coffee shop ..................................... 104 154 163 155 48.61 57.14 49.05

Kitchen h e lp e rs ................................................................................................... 771 1,072 1,131 1,084 38.98 46.74 40.53

Pantry, sandwich, and coffee makers ........................................................... 64 92 97 92 43.07 51.80 43.28

Waiters/waitresses ............................................................................................ 1,539 2,071 2,186 2,084 34.56 42.09 35.43

Waiters’ assistants.............................................................................................. 252 363 384 366 43.72 52.20 45.03

Janitors and s e x to n s .............................................................................................. 2,585 3,257 3,504 3,317 25.96 35.52 28.30

Selected health service w o rk ers.......................................................................... 1,251 1,921 2,051 1,963 53.53 63.93 56.90

Medical assistants.............................................................................................. 81 116 123 116 44.20 52.27 43.52

Nurses’ aides and orderlies ............................................................................. 1,089 1,683 1,801 1,725 54.56 65.40 58.43

Psychiatric a id e s ............ .................................................................................... 77 115 120 116 49.50 56.20 49.86

Selected personal service w o rk e rs ..................................................................... 1,547 2,028 2,206 2,108 31.08 42.56 36.20

Barbers ................................................................................................................ 114 142 160 149 23.90 40.06 30.14

Child-care attendants......................................................................................... 35 55 60 59 56.26 67.85 66.53

Child-care workers ..................................................................... .................. 398 581 615 600 46.10 54.55 50.76

Cosmetologists and womens’ hair stylists .................................................... 434 530 603 566 22.22 38.89 30.43

Elevator operators.............................................................................................. 45 59 64 60 30.70 40.89 32.30

Flight attendants ................................................................................................. 51 64 68 65 26.82 34.56 27.75

Game and ride operators and concession w o rk e rs ..................................... 28 37 38 36 33.10 35.85 29.47

Housekeepers, hotel and motel ..................................................................... 49 67 74 69 35.70 50.95 39.86

Recreation facility attendants .......................................................................... 65 83 85 82 28.33 31.02 27.63

Reducing instructors ......................................................................................... 26 29 35 32 12.22 35.84 25.21

School monitors ................................................................................................. 37 38 38 38 3.03 3.41 2.78

Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket ta k e r s .................................................. 40 46 46 46 15.44 14.50 13.87

Welfare service aides ....................................................................................... 84 126 132 130 51.15 57.25 55.24

Protective service w o rk e rs .................................................................................... 1,586 2,098 2,189 2,120 32.28 38.02 33.71

Correction officials and ja ile rs .......................................................................... 95 152 154 152 60.28 63.08 60.55

Crossing or bridge te n d e rs ............................................................................... 27 32 33 32 18.07 20.76 18.21

Crossing guards, s c h o o l.................................................................................... 38 48 49 49 28.55 30.81 28.79

Firefighters .......................................................................................................... 200 256 260 256 27.62 29.88 27.86

Fire o fficers.......................................................................................................... 46 59 60 59 28.56 30.81 28.79

Guards and doo rke e pe rs.............................. ............................................... 591 801 868 820 35.52 46.80 38.73

Police dete ctive s................................................................................................. 59 72 74 72 23.08 25.33 23.30

Police o ffic e rs ...................................................................................................... 94 119 121 119 26.68 28.93 26.91

Police patrolm en/w om en.................................................................................. 358 459 467 460 28.02 30.26 28.25

Private household w o rk e rs .................................................................................... 1,160 982 993 988 -15.41 -14 .39 -14 .87

Child-care workers, private household........................................................... 486 412 417 414 -15.32 -14 .29 -14 .78

Housekeepers, private household................................................................... 118 100 101 100 -15 .40 -14 .39 -14 .86

Maids and servants, private household ................. ....................................... 530 449 455 452 -15 .20 -14 .19 -14 .67

Supervisors, nonworking, service ........................................................................ 189 254 270 256 34.12 42.27 35.10

All other service w o rk e rs ....................................................................................... 484 633 670 640 30.76 38.33 32.29

Laborers, except fa rm ................................................................................................. 5,902 6,955 7,441 7,078 17.83 26.07 19.92

Animal c a re ta k e rs .............................................................................................. 88 113 122 124 27.63 38.19 40.57

Construction laborers, excluding carpenter helpers..................................... 277 348 365 352 25.74 31.67 27.01

Highway maintenance workers ................................................................... 170 211 215 212 24.44 26.61 24.66

P ipelayers........................................................................................................ 43 54 60 55 25.48 38.32 27.80

Reinforcing-iron w o rk e rs ............................................................................... 31 42 45 43 34.50 41.55 37.99

Cannery w o rk e rs ................................................................................................. 82 80 84 89 -2 .5 3 3.18 8.85

Cleaners, ve h icle ................................................................................................. 118 150 159 160 27.04 35.07 35.76

Conveyor operators and tenders ................................................................... 55 62 68 63 13.82 23.96 15.65

Garbage collectors ............................................................................................ 110 137 148 137 24.37 34.39 24.34

Gardeners and groundkeepers, except farm ............................................... 639 738 789 765 15.58 23.50 19.71

Helpers, tra d e s ................................................................................................... 928 1,161 1,255 1,193 25.04 35.20 28.49

Line service attendants .................................................................................... 27 32 34 32 17.74 25.49 18.61

O ff-bearers........................................................................................................... 25 28 28 26 9.73 10.76 3.94

R iggers.................................................................................................................. 28 33 35 34 16.99 24.70 19.58

Stock handlers ................................................................................................... 918 1,131 1,210 1,137 23.18 31.82 23.82

Order fille rs ...................................................................................................... 352 407 445 405 15.52 26.18 15.08

Stock clerks, sales f lo o r............................................................................... 566 724 766 731 27.95 35.34 29.26

Timbercutting and logging workers ................................................................ 70 59 63 61 -15 .96 -10 .90 -13 .58

Fallers and b u c k e rs ....................................................................................... 43 36 38 37 -16 .60 -11.51 -14 .18

Farmers and farm w orkers......................................................................................... 2,775 2,193 2,426 2,327 -20 .97 -12.57 -16 .13

Farmers and farm m a n a g e rs ............................................................................... 1,486 1,231 1,355 1,281 -17 .18 -8.81 -13 .76

Farmers (owners and tenants) ........................................................................ 1,445 1,200 1,321 1,248 -16 .96 -8.61 -13 .65

Farm m anagers.................................................................................... .............. 41 31 34 34 -25.02 -15.78 -17.65

Farm supervisors and la bo re rs............................................................................. 1,289 963 1,071 1,046 -25 .35 -16 .90 -18 .87

Farm supervisors................................................................................................. 32 25 28 27 -22 .40 -13 .00 -14.25

Farm la b o re rs ...................................................................................................... 1,257 938 1,044 1,019 -25 .42 -17.00 -18 .99

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
tional Employment Statistics (o e s) Survey to collect 

data on occupational staffing patterns of industries 

more frequently. These data are obtained directly from 

establishments by mail survey. The survey is a FederalState cooperative program in which data are collected 

by State employment security agencies according to 

standards, procedures, and methods developed by 'the 

BLS. All nonagricultural industries, except private 

households, are covered in this survey on a 3-year cycle 

—manufacturing industries during the first year, and 

roughly half of nonmanufacturing industries in each of 

the next 2 years. Each industry is therefore surveyed every 3 years. Survey questionnaires are tailored to an industry’s occupational structure. For example, the iron 

and steel industry questionnaire does not list barber as 

an occupation. Each questionnaire is limited to a maximum of 200 occupations; residual categories, such as 

“other professional and technical workers’’ are included 

so that an establishment can list its total employment. 

Employers are requested to identify large or emerging 

occupations in their establishments, which are not 

found on the questionnaire.

Because data for all States were not available until 

the late 1970’s, it was not until 1980 that national matrix for 1978 based on OES survey data could be developed. Occupational staffing patterns for the 1978 matrix 

were derived from the OES surveys of manufacturing industries in 1977; nonmanufacturing, except trade and 

regulated industries in 1978; and trade and regulated industries in 1979. Occupational employment estimates 

for 1978 were obtained by applying the occupational 

staffing pattern for each industry to the total wage-andsalary employment in that industry in 1978. The Bureau’s Current Employment Survey (c e s ) was the 

source of the industry totals. As a result of using the 

OES survey as the data base, the number of detailed industries and occupations in the Bureau’s industry-occupation matrix will increase substantially.

Differences among surveys

Wage-and-salary employment totals for agricultural 

and private household industries were obtained from 

the Current Population Survey (c p s) because the OES

survey and the CES do not cover employment in these 

industries. Occupational distributions of employment in 

these industries were developed from the census-based 

matrix; detailed occupations in the census-based matrix 

were reclassified in the OES occupational framework.

Because an establishment may have workers in more 

occupations than the 200 listed on the questionnaire for 

the employer’s industry, the OES surveys do not obtain 

complete employment counts for, all occupations. In 

general, if survey data accounted for less than an estimated 90 percent of total employment in an occupation, 

the data were collapsed into residual categories in the 

matrix. (About 400 occupations were treated in this 

manner.) If the survey accounted for more than an estimated 90 percent of an occupation’s employment, the 

remainder was estimated on the basis of patterns from 

the census-based matrix. Estimates of employment in 

selected industries for about 200 occupations were developed through this procedure, but the sum of these 

estimates accounted for less than 4 percent of total national employment.

The OES surveys do not cover self-employed workers 

and unpaid family workers. Occupational employment 

estimates for these classes of workers also were developed from CPS and census-based matrix data and reclassi 

fied into the OES occupational framework. However, because of data limitations and resource constraints the 

occupational estimates for self-employed and unpaid 

family workers were not distributed across industries. 

Consequently, industry/occupation cross-tabulations are 

available only for wage-and-salary employment. To develop total employment estimates by occupation, employment of wage-and-salary workers was added to 

totals of self-employed and unpaid family workers.

Detailed occupational employment estimates in the 

OES survey-based matrix for 1978-90 generally are not 

comparable with those in previous census-based matrices because of many major differences in the underlying 

data sources. The census counts persons, whereas the 

OES survey counts jobs. The employment total in the 

OES matrix is higher than the total in the census matrix, 

because one person may hold more than one job. The 

difference between the numbers of jobs and of persons 

employed in 1978 was roughly 10 percent, but it varied 

among occupations. The census is a household survey, 

while the o e s study is directed at employers. Household 

surveys generally are completed by one individual, who 

reports for all members of the household. Employer 

surveys are completed by an official of the responding 

establishment and generally are based on records.

In the census, individuals report themselves in the occupation in which they work the most hours. Respondents to the OES surveys are instructed to report employees performing more than one job in the one that 

requires the highest skill level; also, definitions that imply a specific skill level for each occupation are listed on 

the questionnaire. In the census, the titles reported by 

respondents are grouped into categories which may include workers with greatly different skill levels; categories usually take the title of the most prominent 

occupation in that group. For example, the title “lawyer” includes lawyers and law clerks which are separate 

titles in the OES survey.7 □

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FOOTNOTES

1 This article is one in a series presenting data from the ongoing

projections program. The first article reported on new labor force projections (see Howard N. Fullerton, Jr„ “The 1995 labor force: a first

look”, Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 11-21). The second article, appearing in this issue of the Review, gives new macroeconomic projections for 1985 and 1990. The third article, also in this

issue, describes projections of industry output and industry employment for 1985 and 1990.

2 For the most recent census-based matrix, see George T. Silvestri,

The National Industry-Occupation Employment Matrix, 1970, 1978,

and Projected 1990, Bulletin 2086 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1981).

’ Statistics on employment in this article are based on a count of

jobs, as used in the Bureau’s Current Employment Surveys and Occupational Employment Statistics Surveys, rather than a count of persons as used in the Current Population Surveys and decennial census.

Because one worker may hold more than one job, employment on a

“jobs” concept is greater than employment on a “persons” concept.

Differences between these surveys are discussed in more detail elsewhere in this article.

Employment in this article is slighly different than that in the other

ones in this issue. Self-employed and unpaid family workers by industry are estimated by different methods. In addition, government employment in this article is based in the BLS establishment survey. In

the other articles, government employment is based on National Income Accounts data from the Department of Commerce.

4 Later in 1981, employment projections for occupations with baseyear employment of 5,000 or more will be published in the industryoccupation matrix.

5 An important limitation should be kept in mind when evaluating

occupational employment projections that were generated by applying

the industry-occupational matrix to the various industry projections.

The occupational projections assume that all industries will have an

average occupational composition regardless of the changes that occur

in industry employment under the different scenarios. However, occupational composition of an increase or decrease in an industry’s total

employment may differ from the average occupational composition of

the industry as a result of changes in product mix, capacity utilization, and other factors. For example, differences in the assumptions

embodied in the various scenarios can produce shifts in an industry’s

product mix which increase employment requirements in some occupations, while reducing requirements in others.

6 For a detailed description of how the occupational employment

projections were developed, see Richard P. Oliver, Methodology for

Labor Force, Industry and Occupational Employment Projections to

1990, a BLS report to be published later this year.

7 For more information on the differences between the OES surveybased matrix and the census-based matrix, write to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Division of Occupational Outlook, Washington, D.C. 20212.

47

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The 1995 labor force: 

a first look

All three projections— high, middle, and low— 

indicate that women will account for two-thirds

of the growth, most of which will occur

in the prime working-age group; the black

will grow twice as fast as the white force

Howard N Fullerton, Jr.

By the mid-1980’s, persons in the labor force are projected to exceed those not in the labor force—including 

babies. This development reflects the changing age composition of the population which, in turn, is caused by 

the swings in births over the past 50 years. By 1995, 

this labor force would have a greater proportion of 

women and minorities; indeed, about two-thirds of the 

labor force growth would be generated by women, reflecting their continued labor force participation.1

The projections discussed in this article are part of a 

continuing program of economic projections made by 

the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As part of this program, 

every 2 years labor force projections are prepared, 

followed by projections of the economy, of employment 

by industry, of demand, and ultimately, of occupations 

by industry.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics developed three labor 

force growth scenarios: a high-growth projection, which 

assumes rapid growth in the labor force participation of 

women in the 1980’s and the convergence of participation between black men and white men under age 65; a 

middle-growth scenario, with the expansion coming from 

women; and a low-growth path with only moderate inHoward N Fullerton, Jr., is a demographic statistician in the Office of

Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor

Statistics.

labor force

creases in the participation of women and with the divergence in male participation between races continuing.2

In the intermediate scenario, the labor force is projected to reach 115 million by 1985 and 128 million by 

1995. (See table 1.) This represents 1.8 percent growth 

per year from 1979 to 1985 and 1.0 percent per year 

from 1985 to 1995. (See table 2.) Under this scenario, 

labor force rates of women age 20 to 44 are assumed to 

rise at an increasing rate until 1983. For most age 

groups of men, participation is projected to decline, although not as fast as it did in the 1970’s. Overall participation is assumed to increase more rapidly for whites 

than for blacks.3

In the high-growth scenario, the labor force is projected to grow 2.3 percent per year between 1979 and 

1985 and 1.1 percent per year between 1985 and 1995. 

Under this scenario, about 135 million persons would 

be in the labor force in 1995. The participation rates for 

women age 16 to 19 and 45 to 64 are projected to grow 

at an increasing rate until 1985, before tapering off in 

the 1990’s. The rates for white men age 25 to 39 are assumed to rise, reversing a long-term drop since 1960. 

By the end of the century, the labor force participation 

ratio of black men are projected to converge to the ratio of white men. (With the higher rate of black involvement in the Armed Forces and higher rates of 

institutionalization, the civilian labor force rates for

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some age groups of black men would exceed those of 

white men.) However, because blacks make up about 12 

percent of -the labor force, this assumption of the highgrowth scenario does not have a significant impact on 

the level of the overall labor force.

In the low-growth scenario, the labor force is projected to grow 1.1 percent a year from 1979 to 1985 and 

0.8 percent from 1985 to 1995. By 1995, the civilian labor force is projected to be only 122 million. The participation rates of women age 20 to 44 are projected to 

rise over the entire period, but at a decreasing rate. For 

other age groups of women, participation is assumed to 

increase at a slower rate than in the middle-growth 

path, reflecting a longer ran experience than that in the 

1970’s. For men, labor force activity is projected to decrease more rapidly than in the middle-growth scenario, 

leading to an increased disparity in rates by race.

W©mem provide mostt growth

As a base for these projections, we used the population projections prepared by the Bureau of the Census. 

Under the Series II (middle) projection, the population 

16 and oldef grows steadily through 1995, although the 

decrease in births (which began around 1960) means 

slower rates of growth during the remainder of this century.4 (See table 3.) Because of reduced birth rates during the 1930’s and the 1970’s and the baby boom of the 

1950’s, the age composition of the population and, thus, 

of the labor force will change significantly during the 

next 15 years.5

In the past, much of the increase in the labor force 

has been generated by the entrance of youth and women. The number of new labor force entrants could drop 

in the future because there will be fewer youths. This 

means that the labor force would consist of more experienced workers than now. By 1985, the small number 

of persons bom during the Great Depression will begin 

to leave the prime working ages. They will be replaced

by the more populous baby-boom generation; the 

growth of the older population will be slowed.

More than two-thirds of the 1980-95 labor force 

growth would come from women. (These projections do 

not yield estimates of new entrants and of re-entrants.) 

Women are expected to compose an additional 4 percent of the labor force in 1995 under each of the three 

patterns of labor force growth. The increase in the proportion of employed women in the prime working-age 

group would more than offset the decreasing proportions of younger and older working women. On the other hand, the proportion of men in the labor force is 

assumed to be slightly less. Under the medium- and 

low-growth scenarios, the activity rates of men age 25 

and over is expected to drop. Under the high-growth 

path, the rates for men age 40 to 64 are projected to remain constant and the rates for men age 25 to 39 will 

increase slightly. Rates for men and women under age 

25 are moving up, but those for women are increasing 

faster. In the older age groups, where rates for men and 

women are dropping, those for men are dropping faster. 

Hence, women’s increasing share of the labor force reflects their own greater activity as well as the decrease 

in male participation.

Until recently, labor force participation has been 

dropping for most age groups of black men, while their 

population has been increasing at a higher rate than 

that of whites. As the black population continues to 

grow at a faster rate, the black labor force also can be 

expected to grow at a faster rate. Thus, under all three 

projections, the black labor force is growing considerably faster—at about twice the rate of whites. That the 

relatively rapid growth is related to population growth 

may be seen by comparing possible participation rates. 

Under middle and low scenarios, the overall rate is lower for blacks than for whites. Under the high-growth 

scenario, which assumes convergence of male total participation ratios for blacks and whites, black civilian laTsM® 1. Civilian tabor tore® based on thr®® dofferent growth paths to 19@5

G row th path

Actual (in m illions) P rojected (in m

1885 1175 1878 1855 1880 1885

Total: ......................... 74.5 92.6 102.9

Middle g ro w th ............... 115.0 122.4 127.5

High growth ................. 118.3 128.1 134.7

Low g ro w th .................... 111.7 117.4 121.7

Men: ....................................... 48.3 55.6 59.5

Middle growth ....... 63.6 65.9 67.6

High growth ................. 64.8 68.2 70.8

Low g ro w th .................... 62.5 63.9 64.9

W om en:................................... 26.2 37.0 43.4

Middle g ro w th ............... 51.4 56.5 59.9

High growth ................. 53.4 59.9 63.9

Low g ro w th .................... 49.2 53.5 56.8

Annual percent c h a ng e 1 P articipation rate

1835

to

1875

1875

to

1178

1878

to

1855

1835

to

1880

1880

to

1885

Actual P rojected

1855 1875 1878 1885 1880 1885

2.2 2.7 58.9 61.2 63.7

1.9 1.3 0.8 66.5 67.9 68.6

2.4 1.6 1.0 68.4 71.1 72.4

1.4 1.0 .7 64.6 65.2 65.9

1.4 1.7 80.7 77.9 77.9

1.1 .7 .5 77.7 77.2 76.8

1.4 1.0 .8 79.2 79.9 80.5

.8 .4 .3 76.3 74.9 73.7

3.5 4.1 39.3 46.3 51.0

2.9 1.9 1.2 56.5 59.6 61.2

3.5 2.3 1.0 58.7 63.2 65.2

2.1 1.7 1.2 54.1 56.4 57.9

’ Compounded continuously.

Digitized for FRASER 

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Tab!© 2. Annual rate of growth off the civilian labor force by sex, age, and race, 1 @75-79 and projected to 1995

[In percent]

Actual P rojected

Age, ses, and race

M iddle grow th High grow th Low grow th

1975

to 1979 1985 1990 1979 1985 1980 1979 1935 1890

1979 to to to to to to to to to

1985 1990 1995 1985 1990 1995 1985 1990 1995

Total, age 16 and o v e r................................... 2.67 1.86 1.25 .83 2.34 1.61 1.01 1.37 .99 .72

Men ................................................................................. 1.70 1.11 .70 .52 1.43 1.01 .76 .80 .45 .32

16 to 2 4 ................................................................... 3.15 -1.4 7 -2 .1 7 -1 .1 6 -1.11 -1.6 7 -.6 3 -1.6 7 -2 .2 6 -1 .1 9

16 to 19 ........................................................... 1.39 -2 .2 5 -.7 9 -.3 4 -1 .7 6 -.1 4 .28 -2.41 -.8 7 -.3 8

20 to 24 ........................................................... 2.72 -.0 6 -2.9 4 -1 .6 6 .22 -2.5 3 -1.21 -.2 8 -3.0 4 -1 .6 9

25 to 5 4 ................................................................... 1.83 2.06 1.88 1.10 2.24 2.04 1.23 1.88 1.72 .96

25 to 34 ........................................................... 3.32 2.18 .52 -1.5 9 2.43 .75 -1 .4 0 2.01 .35 -1 .7 4

35 to 44 ........................................................... 2.45 3.88 3.18 1.87 4.00 3.28 1.97 3.72 3.03 1.75

45 to 54 ........................................................... -.91 -.41 2.37 4.03 -.2 8 2.50 4.14 -.6 3 2.19 3.88

55 and over ........................................................... -.91 .78 -1 .2 0 -.5 7 1.69 -.2 6 .14 -.2 7 -2 .3 0 -1.4 8

55 to 64 ........................................................... .56 -.0 4 -1.4 3 -.4 4 .58 -.8 3 .00 -.9 9 -2 .3 7 -1 .1 5

65 and over ...................................................... -6.9 6 4.47 -.3 3 -1.0 4 6.51 1.64 .58 2.98 -2.01 -2 .8 0

W o m en ............................................................................. 4.06 2.85 1.91 1.18 3.52 2.33 1.29 2.13 1.67 1.18

16 to 2 4 ................................................................... 3.30 .49 -.9 0 -.21 1.02 -.2 4 -.2 8 -.0 4 -1 .2 0 -.4 6

16 to 19 ........................................................... 2.63 -1 .1 6 .08 .30 -.8 4 .48 .73 -1.5 5 -.2 3 .10

20 to 24 ........................................................... 3.73 1.48 -1 .4 6 -.5 2 2.12 -.6 5 -.8 8 .85 -1 .7 6 -.81

25 to 5 4 ................................................................... 4.88 4.28 3.24 1.73 5.05 3.56 1.86 3.42 3.04 1.83

25 to 34 ........................................................... 7.19 4.98 2.06 -.7 3 6.03 2.38 -.6 0 3.82 1.93 -.5 5

35 to 44 ........................................................... 5.78 6.12 4.64 2.69 6.84 5.01 2.85 5.35 4.41 2.84

45 to 54 ........................................................... .72 .52 3.28 4.56 .80 3.59 4.75 .12 2.96 4.31

55 and over ........................................................... 2.05 .45 -.61 .01 .86 -.1 5 .30 .07 -.8 5 -.1 0

55 to 64 ........................................................... 1.91 .44 -.9 8 .11 .83 -.6 3 .29 .13 -1 .2 6 -.0 4

65 and over ...................................................... 2.60 .47 .78 -.3 6 1.02 1.62 .33 -.1 3 .72 -.3 0

WHITE

Total, age 16 and o v e r.................................. 2.49 1.71 1.08 .63 2.10 1.37 .76 1.22 .84 .57

Men .................................................................................. 1.56 .96 .55 .36 1.20 .77 .52 .68 .32 .19

16 to 2 4 ................................................................... 2.07 -.9 7 -2.2 8 -1.2 5 -.91 -2.1 4 -1.0 9 -1 .1 6 -2.3 4 -1 .2 6

25 to 5 4 ......................................................... 1.68 1.88 1.72 .93 2.04 1.84 1.01 1.75 1.59 .82

55 and over ........................................................... .39 -.2 2 -1.3 2 -.6 4 .60 -.4 7 -.01 -1.31 -2 .4 7 -1 .6 0

W o m en ............................................................................. 3.89 2.72 1.74 .96 3.32 2.11 1.04 1.97 1.49 1.02

16 to 2 4 ................................................................... 3.11 .36 -1 .0 7 -.5 7 .68 -.7 2 -.7 8 -.1 6 -1.3 8 -.5 9

25 to 5 4 ................................................................... 4.74 4.19 3.11 1.55 4.92 3.44 1.67 3.29 2.91 1.68

55 and over ........................................................... 1.94 .28 -.8 8 -.1 6 .68 -.4 3 .09 -.0 8 -1 .1 2 -.2 9

B U C K AND OTHER

Total, age 16 and o v e r ................................... 3.97 2.97 2.39 2.02 4.01 3.14 2.46 2.42 2.05 1.65

Men ................................................................................. 2.95 2.27 1.85 1.58 3.26 2.71 2.32 1.80 1.40 1.20

16 to 2 4 ................................................................... 3.29 -.0 7 -1.41 -.5 6 2.33 1.06 1.66 -.3 2 -1 .6 5 -.7 6

25 to 5 4 ................................................................... 3.13 3.42 3.08 2.29 3.82 3.45 10.35 2.91 2.62 1.91

55 and o v e r ........................................................... 1.52 .46 -.0 7 .07 2.11 1.57 1.49 -.1 8 -.1 9 -1 .0 2

W o m en ............................................................................. 5.15 3.71 2.92 2.44 4.81 3.56 2.58 3.09 2.70 2.08

16 to 2 4 ................................................................... 4.67 1.35 .13 1.90 3.19 2.37 2.11 .72 -.11 .28

25 to 5 4 ................................................................... 5.11 4.85 3.96 2.73 5.79 4.18 2.84 4.20 3.74 2.63

55 and o v e r........................................................... 2.94 1.77 1.25 1.18 2.27 1.79 1.62 133 1.03 1.14

Note: Compounded continuously.

bor force participation exceeds that of whites by 1995. 

(This reflects, for black women, an expected continuation of higher participation and, for black men, higher 

rates of institutionalization and of participation in the 

Armed Forces.) Under the middle and low scenarios, 

the racial gap in male participation rates is projected to 

approximately double from the percentage point difference in 1979.

The above description of population and labor force 

changes suggests that the discussion of future labor 

force trends should focus on two periods, 1979 to 1985, 

and 1985 to 1995. During 1979-85, the teenage and 

young adult population will decline in absolute numbers 

and the prime-age population will grow sharply. During 

1985-95, the older adult population will grow at a

slower rate. Further, during the late 1980’s and early 

1990’s, women of the baby-boom generation will pass 

their prime childbearing ages.

The changing labor force, 1979-85

A look back to 1975 will help our gaze forward to 

1985. In 1975, the total fertility rate was 1.8 children 

per woman; for 1985, the Census Bureau’s Series II 

population projection is for 2.0 children per woman.6 

Because the total fertility rate adjusts for changing age 

composition, there would be an increase in births from 

the levels of the 1970’s. This increase in fertility rates, 

coupled with the increase in the labor force participation of women, means there would be more working 

mothers.

Digitized 

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In 1975, 46 percent of all women were in the labor 

force. By 1985, this is projected to increase to 56.4 percent under the middle-growth scenario. (See tables 4 

and 5.) This dramatic increase reflects both the movement of women of the baby-boom generation into the 

prime working-age group and the projection of increased activity rates. In 1975, women represented 40 

percent of the labor force—by 1985 they would represent about 45 percent. The percents do not vary much 

across scenarios.

Slow growth for youths. Since the early 1960’s, the youth 

population (age 16 to 24) has been growing at a faster 

rate than has the older population. However, 20 years 

have passed since the years of peak births, and the size 

of this age group has begun to fall. Thus, with the aging of the baby-boom cohort, the numbers of those age 

16 to 24 almost certainly will decline so that, despite a 

projected increase in their labor force participation 

rates, the level of the youth labor force would fall. (Of 

course, the drop would not be as sharp as that for the 

population component.)

The composition of the younger population will also 

be affected by the difference in fertility between blacks 

and whites. Although fertility for both groups has been 

falling, black fertility rates remain higher. As a consequence, the black population is younger (the median 

age is lower), and the youth population will have a 

greater proportion of blacks than will the population 

age 25 and over. At the same time, black youths have 

lower labor force participation than do their white 

counterparts, so if other things remained the same, the

Table 3. Civilian noninstitutional population, by age, s@x, and race, 1 9 7 5 -7 9 and projected to 1995

[Numbers in thousands]

Actual population P rojected population Net change Annual percent change1

Age, sett, and race 1075 1070 1085 1080 1075 1070 10S5 1000

107S 107© 1685 1620 IS IS to to to to to to to to

1070 1085 1080 1005 117© m s 1080 1085

Total, 16 and o v e r .......... 151,268 161,532 172,850 180,129 186,034 10,264 11,318 7,279 5,905 1.65 1.14 0.83 0.65

Men ................................................. 71,403 76,449 81,889 85,285 88,031 5,046 5,440 3,396 2,746 1.72 1.15 .82 .64

16 to 2 4 .................................. 16,793 17,669 16,364 14,695 13,983 876 -1,3 05 -1,6 69 -7 1 2 1.28 -1 .2 7 -2 .1 3 -.9 9

16 to 19 ........................... 8,046 8,155 6,920 6,521 6,403 109 -1,235 -3 9 9 -1 1 8 .34 -2 .7 0 -1 .1 8 -.3 5

20 to 24 ........................... 8,747 9,514 9,444 8,174 7,580 767 - 7 0 -1,2 70 -5 9 4 2.21 -.1 2 -2 .8 5 -1 .5 0

25 to 5 4 ................................... 36,617 39,381 44,707 49,224 52,190 2,764 5,326 4,517 2,966 1.84 2.14 1.94 1.18

25 to 34 ........................... 14,537 16,552 18,988 19,574 18,122 2,015 2,436 586 -1,4 52 3.30 2.31 .61 -1 .5 3

35 to 44 ........................... 10,756 11,838 14,947 17,510 19,236 1,082 3,109 2,563 1,726 2.43 3.98 3.22 1.90

45 to 54 ........................... 11,324 10,991 10,772 12,140 14,832 -3 3 3 -2 1 9 1,368 2,692 -.7 4 -.3 3 2.42 4.09

55 and over ........................... 17,994 19,399 20,818 21,366 21,858 1,405 1,419 548 492 1.90 1.18 .52 .46

55 to 64 ........................... 9,215 9,782 10,217 9,819 9,738 567 435 -3 9 8 -8 1 1.50 .73 -.7 9 -.8 2

65 and o v e r...................... 8,779 9,617 10,601 11,547 12,120 838 984 946 573 2.31 1.64 1.72 .97

W o m en ............................................. 79,865 85,083 90,981 94,844 98,003 5,218 5,878 3,883 3,159 1.59 1.12 0.84 0.66

16 to 2 4 ................................... 17,686 18,397 17,012 15,322 14,560 711 -1,3 85 -1,6 90 -7 6 2 .99 -1 .3 0 -2 .0 7 -1.0 2

16 to 19 ........................... 8,215 8,224 6,981 6,560 6,421 9 -1,243 -421 -1 3 9 .03 -2 .6 9 -1 .2 4 -.4 3

20 to 24 ........................... 9,471 10,173 10,031 8,762 8,139 702 -1 4 2 -1,269 -6 2 3 1.80 -.2 3 -2 .6 7 -1 .4 6

25 to 5 4 ................................... 39,326 42,031 47,318 52,022 55,156 2,705 5,287 4,704 3,134 1.68 1.99 1.91 1.18

25 to 34 ........................... 15,488 17,499 19,908 20,533 19,071 2,011 2,407 627 -1,4 62 3.14 2.17 .62 -1 .4 7

35 to 44 ........................... 11,632 12,780 15,938 18,553 20,384 1,148 3,158 2,615 1,831 2.38 3.75 3.06 1.92

45 to 54 ........................... 12,206 11,752 11,474 12,936 15,701 -4 5 4 -2 7 8 1,462 2,765 -.9 4 -.4 0 2.43 3.95

55 and o v e r ........................... 22,853 24,656 26,631 27,500 28,287 1,803 1,975 869 787 1.92 1.29 .64 .71

55 to 64 ........................... 10,347 10,930 11,293 10,736 10,637 583 363 -5 5 7 - 9 9 1.38 .55 -1.01 -.1 9

65 and o v e r...................... 12,506 13,726 15,338 16,764 17,650 1,220 1,612 1,426 886 2.35 1.87 1.79 1.01

WHITE

Total, 16 and o v e r .......... 133,501 141,614 150,085 155,029 158,791 8,113 8,471 4,944 3,762 1.49 .97 .65 .48

Men ................................................. 63,385 67,493 71,632 73,982 75,770 4,108 4,139 2,350 1,788 1.58 1.00 .65 .48

16 to 2 4 .................................. 14,526 15,175 13,796 12,154 11,418 649 -1,379 -1,6 45 -7 3 3 1.10 -1.5 8 -2 .5 0 -1 .2 4

25 to 5 4 ................................... 32,569 34,816 39,151 42,788 45,002 2,247 4,335 3,637 2,214 1.68 1.98 1.79 1.01

55 and o v e r ........................... 16,291 17,501 18,685 19,040 19,350 1,210 1,184 355 310 1.81 1.10 .38 .32

W om en............................................. 70,115 74,120 78,453 81,047 83,021 4,005 4,333 2,594 1,974 1.48 .95 .65 .48

16 to 2 4 ................................... 15,068 15,522 14,118 12,482 11,724 454 -1,4 04 -1,6 36 -7 5 8 .74 -1 .5 7 -2 .4 3 -1 .2 5

25 to 5 4 .................................. 34,315 36,339 40,457 44,115 46,352 2,024 4,118 3,658 2,237 1.44 1.81 1.75 .99

55 and over ........................... 20,733 22,257 23,878 24,450 24,945 1,524 1,621 572 495 1.79 1.18 .47 .40

BLACK AND OTHER

Total, 16 and o v e r .......... 17,768 19,918 22,765 25,100 27,243 2,150 2,847 2,335 2,143 2.90 2.25 1.97 1.65

Men ................................................. 8,018 8,955 10,257 11,303 12,261 937 1,302 1,042 958 2.80 2.29 1.96 1.64

16 to 2 4 .................................. 2,267 2,493 2,568 2,541 2,565 226 75 - 2 7 24 2.40 .50 -.2 9 .19

25 to 5 4 ................................... 4,048 4,564 5,556 6,436 7,188 516 992 880 752 3.04 3.33 2.98 2.23

55 and o v e r ........................... 1,703 1,897 2,133 2,326 2,508 194 236 193 182 2.73 1.97 1.75 1.52

W o m en ............................................ 9,750 10,963 12,508 13,797 14,982 1,213 1,545 1,289 1 185 2.97 2.22 1.98 1.66

16 to 2 4 .................................. £6T 8- 2,873 289rT 2,840 2,836 255 21 -5 4 - 4 2.36 .12 -.3 8 -.0 3

25 to 5 4 .................................. 5,011 5,691 6,861 7,907 8,804 680 1,170 1,046 897 3.23 3.17 2.88 2.17

55 and o v e r ........................... 2,120 2,399 2,753 3,050 3,342 279 354 297 292 3.14 2.32 2.07 1.85

'Compounded continuously.

Digitized for FRASER 

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Tab8® 4. Civilian labor force participation rate by sex, age, and race, 1975-79 and projected to 1995

[In percent]

Sax, age, end race

Actual P rojected

1975 1979

middle grow th High grow th Low grow th

1935 1990 1995 1985 1SS0 1S95 1S85 1«®0 1S95

Total, age 16 and o v e r.......... 61.2 63.7 66.5 67.9 68.6 68.4 71.1 72.4 64.6 65.2 65.4

Men ......................................................... 7 79 77.9 77.7 77.2 76.8 79.2 79.9 80.5 76.3 74.9 73.7

16 to 2 4 .......................................... 72.4 75.1 76.9 76.8 76.1 78.7 80.5 82.0 76.1 75.5 74.7

16 to 19 ................................... 59.2 61.7 63.4 64.7 64.7 65.3 68.8 71.7 62.8 63.8 63.7

20 to 24 .................................. 84.6 86.6 86.9 86.4 85.7 88.4 89.8 91.2 85.8 84.9 84.1

25 to 5 4 .......................................... 94.4 94.4 94.0 93.7 93.4 95.0 95.5 95.7 93.0 92.0 91.0

25 to 34 .................................. 95.3 95.4 94.7 94.3 94.0 96.1 96.7 97.4 93.7 92.5 91.5

35 to 44 .................................. 95.7 95.8 95.4 95.2 95.1 98.0 96.4 96.7 94.4 93.6 93.0

45 to 54 .................................. 92.1 91.4 91.0 90.8 90.6 91.7 92.1 92.4 89.8 88.8 87.9

55 and o v e r ................................... 49.5 4 6 5 43.1 39.6 37.6 45.5 43.8 43.1 40.5 35.1 31.8

55 to 64 .................................. 75.8 73.0 69.7 67.5 66.5 72.4 72.2 72.8 65.8 60.7 57.8

65 and o v e r.............................. 21.7 20.0 17.5 15.8 14.3 19.7 19.6 19.2 16.1 13.3 11.0

W o m en .................................................... 46.3 51.0 56.5 59.6 61.2 58.7 63.2 65.2 54.1 56.4 57.9

16 to 2 4 .......................................... 572 62.6 69.7 73.9 77.0 71.9 78.9 81.8 67.5 70.5 72.5

16 to 19 .................................. 49.2 54.5 59.8 63.9 66.3 61.0 66.5 70.5 58.4 61.4 63.1

20 to 24 ................................... 64.1 69.1 76.5 81.4 85.3 79.5 88.1 90.7 73.8 77.3 79.8

25 to 5 4 .......................................... 55.0 62.2 71.1 75.9 78.0 74.3 80.5 83.3 67.7 71.5 73.9

25 to 34 .................................. 54.6 63.8 75.1 80.7 83.7 79.7 86.9 90.8 70.3 75.0 78.5

35 to 44 .................................. 55.8 63.6 72.9 78.6 81.7 75.9 83.2 87.2 69.8 74.4 77.9

45 to 54 .................................. 54.6 58.4 61.7 64.3 66.2 62.7 66.4 69.0 60.2 61.8 62.9

55 and over ................................... 23.1 23.2 22.1 20.7 20.2 22.6 21.7 21.5 21.6 20.0 19.4

55 to 64 .................................. 41.0 41.9 41.6 41.7 42.3 42.6 43.4 44.5 40.9 40.3 40.6

65 and o v e r.............................. 8.3 8.3 7.7 7.3 6.8 7.9 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.0 6.6

WHITE

Total, age 16 and o v e r.......... 61.5 64.0 66.8 68.3 68.8 68.4 70.9 71.9 65.0 65.6 65.9

Men ........................................................ 78.7 78.6 78.5 78.1 77.7 79.6 80.1 80.3 77.2 76.0 74.9

16 to 2 4 .......................................... 74.3 77.2 80.1 81.0 80.9 80.4 81.9 82.5 79.2 79.8 79.7

25 to 5 4 .......................................... 95.1 95.1 94.6 94.3 93.9 95.5 95.7 95.7 93.8 93.0 92.1

55 and o v e r ................................... 49.8 47.1 43.6 40.0 38.1 45.8 43.9 43.1 40.8 35.3 32.1

W o m e n .................................................... 45.9 50.6 56.2 59.3 60.7 58.2 62.5 64.3 53.8 56.1 57.6

16 to 2 4 .......................................... 59.0 64.8 72.8 78.0 80.6 74.2 80.9 82.8 70.5 74.4 76.9

25 to 5 4 .......................................... 54.2 61.6 70.8 75.7 77.8 73.8 80.2 83.0 67.2 71.2 73.6

55 and o v e r ................................... 22.8 22.9 21.7 20.3 19.7 22.2 21.2 20.9 21.2 19.6 18.9

S U C K AND OTHER

Total, age 16 and o v e r.......... 59.3 61.8 64.4 65.8 67.0 68.5 72.5 75.4 62.4 62.7 62.7

Men ......................................................... 71.5 71.9 71.9 71.5 71.3 76.2 79.0 81.7 69.9 68.0 66.6

16 to 2 4 .......................................... 60.1 62.3 60.2 56.6 54.5 69.4 74.0 79.6 59.3 55.1 52.5

25 to 5 4 .......................................... 89.0 89.3 89.8 90.2 90.5 91.8 94.0 96.0 87.1 85.6 84.3

55 and over ................................... 45.1 43.0 39.3 35.9 33.5 43.4 43.0 42.9 37.8 33.5 30.3

W o m en .................................................... 49.2 53.5 58.3 61.1 63.5 62.2 67.1 70.3 56.3 58.3 59.5

16 to 2 4 .......................................... 46.4 50.8 54.7 56.1 61.8 60.9 69.8 r i s 52.7 53.4 54.2

25 to 5 4 .......................................... 60.2 66.3 73.1 77.0 79.2 77.1 82.1 90.8 70.4 73.5 75.2

55 and over .................................. 26.4 26.2 25.4 24.4 23.6 26.2 25.8 25.5 24.7 23.5 22.7

growth of the youth labor force would be slower. (See 

table 6.)

The number of black youths should increase slightly 

while the number of whites should drop. Only black 

young men had lessening labor force participation during 

the 1970’s. Under the middle-growth projection, this 

drop is assumed to continue, although at a decreasing 

rate. The effects of greater labor force participation by 

black women and a proportionately larger youth population would offset the decline in male participation, and 

black youths would constitute the same proportion of the 

labor force in 1985 as at present. Under both the middleand high-growth projections, the black youth labor force 

would be half men and half women. In the high-growth 

scenario, black youths represent ah even greater proportion of the labor force in 1985; the more pessimistic lowgrowth pattern yields a lower proportion.

Prime-age labor force. The prime-age workers (25 to 54 

years) would be the fastest growing component of the 

labor force under each of the growth paths. The following tabulation shows annual growth rates by major age 

group and race, 1975-79, and projected growth for

1979-85:

1975- 79 1979-85

Y outh ............................. ____ 3.2 -0.6

Prime ............................. ____ 3.0 3.0

Older ............................. ......................2 .7

White ............................. . . . . 2.6 1.7

Black and other ........... . . . . 4.0 3.0

In each scenario, the prime-age labor force of women 

would grow at a faster rate than that of men. Under the 

high projection, between 1975 and 1985, the female laDigitized for FRASER 

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bor force is projected to grow at twice the male rate 

and at a pace faster than that experienced in the 1970’s. 

This is due to three factors: the movement of women of 

the baby-boom generation into this age group, a moderate rise in fertility, and a continued growth in female labor force participation. The high-growth scenario for 

women in this age group is an attempt to reflect the acceleration in participation that was exhibited in the 

1970’s.

Under the high-growth scenario, prime-age men (particularly young men), are also expected to experience an 

increase in participation. Under the high-growth path, 

prime-age men would represent 78 percent of the total 

male labor force, a moderate increase from 1979. Under 

the middle-growth path, such trends would also be evident, although less significantly. For example, by 1985, 

prime-age male workers would represent only 75 percent of the male labor force. With the more pronounced 

drop anticipated under the low-growth scenario, the 

proportion of prime-age men would be less than in 

1975, while their female counterparts would be more 

than 10 percentage points higher than in 1975.

Older workers. Older people (age 55 and over) have the 

most on-the-job experience, although on average, they 

have the least formal education. From 1979 to 1985, 

older workers are expected to participate less intensively 

in the labor force. These projections do not indicate the 

extent of part-time labor force activity that this growing 

segment of the population might elect.

Under the high-growth scenario, men age 55 to 64 

are expected to have only a modest decrease in participation. This decrease, coupled with population growth, 

will result in an increase in their labor force. Under the

Table 5. Civilian labor force by sex, age, and race, 1975-79 and projected to 1995

[Numbers in thousands]

S@k, age, and race

A ctual P rojected

1975 1979

M iddle grow th High grow th Low grow th

1985 1990 1995 1985 1990 1915 1985 1990 1695

Total, agfe 16 and over ___ 92,613 102,908 114,985 122,375 127,542 118,252 128,123 134,753 111,706 117,394 121,684

M e n ......................................................... 55,615 59,517 63,600 65,880 67,611 64,825 68,174 70,835 62,458 63,888 64,918

16 to 2 4 ....................................... 12,158 13,270 12,592 11,282 10,641 12,873 11,833 11,463 12,445 11,099 10,450

16 to 1 9 .................................. 4,760 5,031 4,387 4,216 4,144 4,521 4,489 4,553 4,344 4,158 4,078

20 to 2 4 .................................. 7,398 8,239 8,205 7,086 6,497 8,352 7,344 6,910 8,101 6,941 6,372

25 to 5 4 ....................................... 34,569 37,180 42,029 46,147 48,758 42,473 46,988 49,950 41,584 45,287 47,507

25 to 3 4 .................................. 13,854 15,792 17,976 18,453 17,029 18,239 18,934 17,645 17,796 18,113 16,583

35 to 4 4 .................................. 10,288 11,337 14,252 16,672 18,297 14,353 16,873 18,604 14,116 16,393 17,880

45 to 5 4 .................................. 10,426 10,051 9,801 11,022 13,432 9,881 11,181 13,701 9,672 10,781 13,044

55 and over ................................ 8,888 5,068 8,979 8,451 8,212 9,479 9,353 9,422 8,429 7,502 6,961

55 to 6 4 .................................. 6,982 7,140 7,122 6,625 6,479 7,393 7,090 7,092 6,725 5,963 5,626

65 and o v e r ........................... 1,906 1,290 1,857 1,826 1,733 2,086 2,263 2,330 1,704 1,539 1,335

Women ................................................. 36,998 43,391 51,385 56,495 59,931 53,427 59,949 63,918 49,248 53,503 56,766

16 to 24 ....................................... 10,108 11,511 11,854 11,325 11,205 12,235 12,083 11,912 11,477 10,800 10,551

16 to 1 9 .................................. 4,039 4,481 4,176 4,194 4,259 4,259 4,363 4,526 4,079 4,031 4,053

20 to 2 4 .................................. 6,069 7,029 7,678 7,131 6,946 7,976 7,720 7,386 7,398 6,769 6,498

25 to 54 ....................................... 21,613 26,156 33,650 39,469 43,021 35,163 41,885 45,934 32,020 37,198 40,735

25 to 3 4 ................................... 8,456 11,167 14,955 16,568 15,971 15,870 17,853 17,322 13,988 15,396 14,971

35 to 4 4 ................................... 6,493 8,130 11,617 14,581 16,651 12,094 15,444 17,781 11,121 13,805 15,887

45 to 5 4 ................................... 6,665 6,860 7,078 8,320 10,399 7,199 8,588 10,831 6,911 7,997 9,877

55 and over ................................ 5,277 5,724 5,881 5,701 5,705 6,029 5,981 6,072 5,751 5,508 5,480

55 to 6 4 .................................. 4,244 4,579 4,703 4,476 4,502 4,812 4,662 4,731 4,615 4,330 4,320

65 and o v e r ........................... 1,033 1,145 1,178 1,225 1,203 1,217 1,319 1,341 1,136 1,178 1,160

WHITE

Total, age 16 and over .... 62,084 90,602 100,316 105,867 109,292 102,667 109,930 114,208 97,496 101,661 104,604

M e n ......................................................... 49,881 53,074 56,228 57,800 58,871 57,014 59,245 60,817 55,287 56,197 56,752

16 to 24 ........................................ 10,795 11,718 11,047 9,843 9,242 11,090 9,953 9,421 10,923 9,699 9,103

25 to 54 .'..................................... 30,965 33,105 37,041 40,342 42,256 37,370 40,939 43,051 36,742 39,775 41,447

55 and over ................................ 8,121 8,251 8,140 7,615 7,373 8,554 8,353 8,345 7,622 6,723 6,202

Women .................................................. 32,203 37,528 44,088 48,067 50,421 45,653 50,685 53,391 42,209 45,464 47,852

16 to 24 ........................................ 8,890 10,051 10,271 9,731 9,453 10,472 10,100 9,710 9,952 9,284 9,013

25 to 54 ........................................ 18,595 22,382 28,635 33,379 36,052 29,872 35,391 38,462 27,187 31,389 34,118

55 and over ................................ 4,717 5,095 5,182 4,957 4,916 5,309 5,194 5,219 5,070 4,791 4,721

iL A C K AND OTHER

Total, age 16 and over .... 10,529 12,306 14,669 16,508 18,250 15,585 18,193 20,545 14,210 15,733 17,080

M e n ......................................................... 5,734 6,443 7,372 8,080 8,740 7,811 8,929 10,018 7,171 7,691 8,166

16 to 24 ........................................ 1,363 1,552 1,545 1,439 1,399 1,783 1,880 2,042 1,522 1,400 1,347

25 to 54 ........................................ 3,602 4,075 4,988 5,805 6,502 5,103 6,049 6,899 4,842 5,512 6,060

55 and over ................................ 768 816 839 836 839 925 1,000 1,077 807 799 759

Women .................................................. 4,795 5,863 7,297 8,428 9,510 7,774 9,264 10,527 7,039 8,042 8,914

16 to 2 4 ........................................ 1,216 1,460 1,583 1,594 1,752 1,763 1,983 2,202 1,525 1,516 1,538

25 to 5 4 ........................................ 3,018 3,774 5,015 6,090 6,969 5,291 6,494 7,472 4,833 5,809 6,617

55 and over ................................ 560 629 699 744 789 720 787 853 681 717 759

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other two scenarios, their participation is expected to 

drop more sharply, and the male labor force age 55 to

64 would actually decrease. Participation rates for women in this age group are expected to increase under both 

the moderate- and high-growth projections. The result 

would be an older labor force with proportionately 

more women.

The scenarios in these projections for the age group

65 and over are the same for both sexes. For the high 

projection, recent legislation forbidding mandatory retirement before age 70 is expected to hold participation 

constant. Under the moderate-growth scenario, the 

measured rate of decrease in participation is reduced 

somewhat, so that labor force activity drops at a slower 

rate than in the past. Under the low-growth projection, 

the measured declines in labor force participation are 

projected to continue.

An experienced labor force,, 1985-95

During 1985-95, the baby-boom generation will be 

in the prime working ages and the relatively small number of persons bom in the Great Depression will begin 

retiring, easing pressures on retirement systems.

To put the 1995 projections in context, it is useful to 

look back to 1965, a time of the buildup of forces in 

Vietnam and a period of lower inflation. The fertility 

rate was 2.9 children per woman, well above the Census 

Bureau’s Series II projection of 2.1 for 1995.7 In fact, 

1965 was the first year in which births were below 4 

million—after 11 years of high birth rates. In 1965, 40 

percent of all women, 34 percent of all married women, 

and 23 percent of mothers with children under age 6 

were in the labor force. Although comparable projections of the labor force by marital and parental status 

were not made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for 

1995, more than half of all married women were already in the labor force by 1979, as were 45.2 percent 

of mothers with preschool children. Both groups 

(which, of course, overlap) are projected to supply 

much of the labor force growth in the 1990’s.

Youths. In 1965, youths were a relatively small proportion of the labor force, 18 percent. By 1979, this number had climbed to 24.4 percent. The effects of changes 

in the composition of the labor force may be seen by 

looking at the median age of the labor force. In 1965, it 

was 40 years; by 1979, it had dropped 5 years, taking 

the effects of both greater retirement and the aging of 

the baby-boom generation into account; by 1995, the 

median age of the labor force is projected to be 37.5 

years.

Based on the Census Bureau’s Series II birth rate 

projection, the youth labor force would continue to decrease from 1985 to 1995, although a larger proportion 

of teenagers would participate in the labor force. Only

under the high-growth pattern would young men age 20 

to 24 have a greater participation rate than in 1979. By 

1995, the youth labor force would be a smaller proportion of the labor force than in either 1979 or 1985.

Prime-age workers. By 1995, more than 70 percent of 

the labor force would be in the prime working ages. For 

the middle- and high-growth scenarios, this is actually a 

lower proportion than in 1985. The projected growth 

for prime-age men is about the same under all three scenarios; consequently, even after the growth in female 

participation is taken into account, the prime-age labor 

force is still more stable over the scenarios than that off 

the younger and older age groups. (See table 6.) In the 

middle- and low-growth projections, it is assumed that 

the youth and the older labor force grow relatively 

slower than the prime-age labor force, so these scenarios have a higher proportion of prime-age workers. 

However, the greatest number of prime-age workers 

would be attained under the high-growth pattern. Under all projections, the labor force would have more 

women and more blacks than now: 47 percent of the labor force would be women, and 14 to 15 percent of the 

labor force would be black. Following are selected annual growth rates (in percent) of all persons in the labor force, by major age group and race, 1965-79, and 

projected grbwth to 1995:

1965- 79 1979-95

Youth........................ ......... 3.9 -0.9

Prim e........................ ......... 2.2 2.3

Older ........................ ................... 4 -.2

W hite........................ ......... 2.3 1.2

Black and o th er......... ......... 2.8 2.5

Older workers. Under all scenarios, workers age 55 and 

older would continue to be a decreasing proportion of 

the workforce. The changes for the 25 years from 1970 

are most dramatic in the low-growth projection—in 

1995, older workers would constitute. about two-thirds 

the proportion of the labor force that they did in 1970. 

This drop reflects both their expected continued drop in 

participation and the increase in the numbers of persons 

in the prime working ages, when participation is 

highest. The drop in the proportions for the middleand high-growth paths is less extreme, from 14 percent 

in 1979 to around 11 percent in 1995.

How the projections were revised

The uncertainty of the projection process is indicated 

by the changes from the 1978 set.8 (See table 7.) The 

difference between the high and low in 1985 and 1990 is 

about the same as that in the 1978 projections; the current middle projection is midway between the previous 

middle and high. Each scenario, high, middle, and low 

was revised upward—the low one the most, to almost

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Table 3. Labor force distribution by sex, age, and race, 1975-79 and projected to 1 9 9 5

[In percent]

Sax, ega, and race

Actual P rojected

1975 1979

M iddle grow th High grow th Low grow th

1985 1990 1995 1985 1980 1995 1985 1990 1995

Total, age 16 and o v e r.......... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Men ......................................................... 60.0 57.8 55.3 53.8 53.0 54.8 53.2 52.5 55.9 54.4 53.3

16 to 2 4 .......................................... 13.1 13.3 10.9 9.2 8.3 10.8 9.2 8.5 11.1 9.4 8.5

16 to 19 .................................. 5.1 4.8 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.8 3.5 3.3

20 to 24 .................................. 7.9 8.0 7.1 5.7 5.0 7.0 5.7 5.1 7.2 5.9 5.2

25 to 5 4 .......................................... 37.3 36.1 36.5 37.7 38.2 35.9 36.6 37.0 37.2 38.5 39.0

25 to 34 ................................... 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.0 13.3 15.4 14.7 13.0 15.9 15.4 13.6

35 to 44 ................................... 11.1 11.0 12.3 13.6 14.3 12.1 13.1 13.8 12.6 13.9 14.6

45 to 54 .................................. 11.2 9.7 8.5 9.0 10.5 8.3 8.7 10.1 8.6 9.1 10.7

55 and O v e r.................................. 9.5 8.3 7.8 6.9 6.4 8.0 7.3 6.9 7.5 6.3 5.7

55 to 64 .................................. 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.4 5.0 6.2 5.5 5.2 6.0 5.0 4.6

65 and o v e r.............................. 2.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.0

W o m en .................................................... 39.9 42.1 44.6 46.1 46.9 45.1 46.7 47.4 44.0 45.5 46.6

16 to 2 4 .......................................... 10.9 11.1 10.3 9.2 8.7 10.3 9.4 8.8 10.2 9.1 8.6

16 to 19 .................................. 4.3 4.3 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.3

20 to 24 .................................. 6.5 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.4 6.7 6.0 5.4 6.6 5.7 5.3

25 to 5 4 .......................................... 23.3 25.4 29.2 32.2 33.7 29.7 32.6 34.0 28.6 31.6 33.4

25 to 34 .................................. 9.1 10.8 13.0 13.5 12.5 13.4 13.9 12.8 12.5 13.1 12.3

35 to 44 .................................. 7.0 7.9 10.1 11.9 13.0 10.2 12.0 13.1 9.9 11.7 13.0

45 to 54 .................................. 7.1 6.6 6.1 6.7 8.1 6.0 6.7 8.0 6.1 6.8 8.1

55 and over .................................. 5.6 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.4 5.0 4.6 4.5 5.1 4.6 4.5

55 to 64 .................................. 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.5 4.0 3.6 3.5 4.1 3.6 3.5

65 and over ............................. 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 .9 1.0 1.0 .9 1.0 1.0 .9

WHITE

Total, age 16 and o v e r.......... 88.6 88.0 87.2 86.5 85.6 86.8 85.8 84.7 87.2 86.5 85.9

Men ......................................................... . 53.8 51.5 48.9 47.2 46.1 48.2 46.2 45.1 49.4 47.8 46.6

16 to 2 4 .......................................... 11.6 11.3 9.6 8.0 7.2 9.3 7.7 6.9 9.7 8.2 7.4

25 to 5 4 .......................................... 33.4 32.1 32.2 32:9 33.1 31.6 31.9 31.9 32.8 33.8 34.0

55 and over .................................. 8.7 8.0 7.0 6.2 5.7 7.2 6.5 6.1 6.8 5.7 5.0

W o m en .................................................... 34.7 36.4 38.3 39.2 39.5 38.6 39.5 39.6 37.7 38.7 39.3

16 to 2 4 .......................................... 9.5 9.7 8.9 7.9 7.4 8.8 7.8 7.2 8.9 7.9 7.4

25 to 5 4 .......................................... 20.0 21.7 24.9 27.2 28.2 25.2 27.6 28.5 24.3 26.7 28.0

55 and over .................................. 5.0 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.8 4.4 4.0 3.8 4.5 4.0 3.8

(SLACK AMD OTHER

Total, age 16 and o v e r.......... 11.3 11.9 12.7 13.4 14.3 13.1 14.1 15.2 12.7 13.4 14.0

Men ......................................................... 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.9 7.4 6.4 6.5 6.7

16 to 2 4 .......................................... 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1

25 to 5 4 .......................................... 3.8 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.0 4.3 4.7 7.3 4.3 4.6 4.9

55 and o v e r .................................. .8 .7 .7 .6 .6 .7 .7 .7 .7 .6 .6

W o m en .................................................... 5.1 5.6 6.3 6.8 7.4 6.5 7.2 7.8 6.3 6.8 7.3

16 to 2 4 .......................................... 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2

25 to 5 4 .......................................... 3.3 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.4 4.4 5.0 5.5 4.3 4.9 5.4

55 and over ................................... .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6

the level of the previous middle-growth path. The 

changes reflect the effects of two additional years of observations, as well as changes in the assumptions made 

for women age 20 to 44 mentioned earlier. They also reflect the general experience that it is more difficult to 

project an increasing phenomenon.

In 1990, the projected number of women would be 

about 2.5 million higher under each scenario, but the 

proportion of the labor force in each major age group 

differs among scenarios. Under both the high and middle scenarios, the number of young women in the labor 

force would be smaller than in the previous projection, 

reflecting their slower participation growth. For women 

in the 20 to 44 age group, the 1978 projection included 

an adjustment to the high-growth scenario to reflect accelerating participation rates; in the current projection, 

this assumption was formally introduced in both the

middle- and high-growth scenarios.

The differences between the two sets of projections 

are less uniform for men. The number of men in the labor force is essentially unchanged in the high-growth 

scenario; in the low and middle scenarios the number of 

men is projected to increase. The Bureau of Labor Statistics typically revised downward the number of men in 

the labor force with each succeeding labor force projection (while increasing the number of women). These 

changes reflect the slowing or ending of the decline in 

male participation rates. For the high-growth scenario, 

it is assumed that male participation rates will either 

rise or at least hold constant.

To summarize, for each scenario, the number of 

women expected to be in the labor force was revised 

upward by about the same amount. For men, the highgrowth projection was approximately the same as the

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last projection, the middle-growth path was revised upward slightly, and the low-growth path was revised upward significantly.

Possible consequences

A number of questions could be asked about the 

possible consequences of the changes in the structure of 

the population and of the labor force in these projections. Would these changes affect the ability of society 

to maintain the responsibilities it has assumed, such as 

social security? Could the changing composition of the 

labor force make goals such as equal employment opportunity easier or more difficult to accomplish? Is there 

potential for changes in productivity? Will there be 

scarcities of certain kinds of workers? How would migration affect the composition of the labor force?

Societal responsibilities. One of the implications of these 

projections is the change in the “economic dependency 

ratios” for both the high and middle projections. The 

economic dependency ratio is defined as all persons not 

in the labor force (including those under age 16) divided by the total in the labor force.9 This ratio should 

drop to below 100 nonworkers per 100 workers. Under 

the conditions of the middle-growth pattern, the dependency ratio would stabilize after 1990. Under the conditions of the high-growth scenario, (which assumes 

higher participation), the dependency ratio drops significantly; in fact, it shows no sign of leveling off in this 

century. Under the conditions of the low-growth projection, the dependency ratio would stabilize above the 

100-nonworker-per-100-worker level, but well below 

historic levels. The following tabulation shows dependency ratios for 1965-79 and projected ratios for the 

three scenarios, 1985-95:

_______ Projected__________

Actual Middle High Low

1965 ................... 151.8 . . . ......................

1970 ................... 138.5 . . . ......................

1975 ................... 125.4 . . . ......................

1979 ................... 110.1 . . . ......................

1985 ................... . . . 98.8 93.5 104.5

1990 ................... . . . 95.6 87.0 103.4

1995 ................... . . . 94.5 84.4 104.1

These favorable ratios are a characteristic of the age of 

the baby-boom cohort and of the numbers of projected 

births. A large labor force is combined with low births 

to give low economic dependency ratios. As the babyTabl® 7. Comparison of the current and previous projections for 1985 and 1990

[Numbers in thousands]

G row th path, sex, and age

1985 1880

P re vio u s1 C urrent D iffere n ce 2 P re vio u s1 C urrent D iffere n ce 2

MIDDLE

Total, age 16 and over ........................................................................ 112,953 114,985 2,032 119,366 122,375 3,039

Men ...................................................................................................................... 63,007 63,600 593 65,115 65,880 765

16 to 2 4 ........................................................................................................ 12,465 12,592 127 11,156 11,282 126

25 to 5 4 ....................................................................................................... 41,824 42,029 205 45,845 46,147 302

55 and o v e r ................................................................................................ 8,718 8,979 261 8,114 8,451 337

W o m en ................................................................................................................. 49,946 51,385 1,439 54,251 56,495 2,244

16 to 2 4 ....................................................................................................... 11,934 11,854 -8 0 11,225 11,325 100

25 to 5 4 ....................................................................................................... 32,432 33,650 1,218 37,713 39,469 1,756

55 and o v e r ................................................................................................ 5,580 5,881 301 5,313 5,701 388

HIGH

Total, age 16 and over ....................................................................... 117,005 118,252 1,247 125,603 128,123 2,520

Men ...................................................................................................................... 65,013 64,825 -18 8 68,220 68,174 -4 6

16 to 2 4 ....................................................................................................... 12,882 12,873 - 9 11,879 11,833 -4 6

25 to 5 4 ........................................................................................................ 42,533 42,473 -6 0 47,056 46,988 -6 8

55 and over ................................................................................................ 9,598 9,479 -1 1 9 9,285 9,353 68

W o m en ................................................................................................................. 51,992 53,427 1,435 57,383 59,949 2,566

16 to 2 4 ........................................................................................................ 12,510 12,235 -27 5 12,054 12,083 29

25 to 5 4 ....................................................................................................... 33,596 35,163 1,567 39,630 41,885 2,256

55 and o v e r ................................................................................................ 5,886 6,029 143 5,699 5,981 282

LOW

Total, age 16 and over ........................................................................ 108,900 111,706 2,808 113,521 117,394 3,873

Men ....................................................................................................................... 61,169 62,458 1,289 62,472 63,888 1,416

16 to 2 4 ........................................................................................................ 12,134 12,445 311 10,744 11,099 355

25 to 5 4 ........................................................................................................ 41,219 41,584 365 44,844 45,287 443

55 and o v e r ................................................................................................ 7,816 8,429 613 6,884 7,502 618

W o m en .................................................................................................................. 47,731 49,248 1,517 51,049 53,506 2,457

16 to 2 4 ........................................................................................................ 11,315 11,477 162 10,375 10,800 425

25 to 5 4 ........................................................................................................ 31,220 32,020 800 35,942 37,198 1,256.

55 and over ................................................................................................ 5,196 5,751 555 4,732 5,508 776

1 The previous projections were published in Paul 6 . Flaim and Howard N Fullerton, Jr., '.‘La- December 1978. 

bor force projections to 1990: Three possible paths,” M onthly Labor Review , pp. 2 5 -3 5 , 2 A minus sign indicates that the current projection is lower than the previous projection.

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boom cohort leaves the prime working ages (after 

2015), the dependency ratios should rise again, although 

the higher mortality of older people will prevent it from 

reaching the levels of the 1960’s. Differences in the 

number of older people are a consequence of past fertility—not improvements in mortality—but if spectacular 

increases in longevity occur, this could change.10 Thus, 

the current difficulties of the social security system are 

not a result of the current age composition of the population. This favorable age composition effect on social 

security almost certainly will reverse in the early part of 

the next century.

Black-white differentials. One dilemma confronting labor 

force forecasters and policymakers concerned with employment and training programs has been the continued 

divergence of labor force participation between blacks 

and whites in the prime-age groups. As recently as the 

mid-1950’s, the rates for men were virtually the same; 

but since then, the participation rates for black men 

have dropped more rapidly than those for white men. 

The high-growth scenario projects a possible return to 

parity of their labor force rates. The extent to which 

black rates have to increase is a measure of the problems that have to be confronted. In numbers, about 1.3 

million more black men would participate in the high 

than in the middle-growth path labor force. For women, the picture has been different; in 1979, the rate for 

prime-age black women was higher than that for their 

white counterparts (despite higher fertility among black 

women). Moreover, participation of women in both 

groups is increasing, although faster for whites.

The differences in female participation reflect the 

greater family responsibilities of black women—more 

are single parents than are whites, although the number 

of such white women is increasing.11 The higher fertility 

of black women obviously translates into higher population growth and then into higher labor force growth. 

Thus, the youth groups of the 1980’s and 1990’s will 

have a higher proportion of blacks.

Productivity. One question raised by these projections is 

the effect of a proportionally greater prime-age labor 

force on productivity. The proportion of prime-age 

workers will increase at least by 10 percentage points 

(with the low-growth projection having the greatest 

concentration in the prime ages). Analyses have centered on the relative size of the youth labor force (which 

will diminish) and on the likely impact this would have 

on productivity gains.12 The growing proportion of the 

prime-age labor force should have a favorable impact 

on productivity because of the greater continuity of participation by women and because of the higher educational attainment of all age, sex, and ethnic components.13

In the 1980’s and 1990’s, employers may have 

increasing difficulty finding young workers. The decline 

in the number of youths will be particularly important 

to the Armed Forces—the largest single employer of 

youths. Given the decrease in the youth labor force, 

those who employ unskilled workers may also experience difficulty— depending to some extent on the Nation’s immigration policy.

The growth of the prime-age labor force would 

exceed that of the overall labor force by 20 percent. Because this is the experienced component of the labor 

force, analysts who look for a shortage of skilled workers must consider likely changes in the composition of 

the prime-age labor force. More than half (59 percent) 

of the growth is projected to be generated by women 

and 22 percent by blacks (black women are in both 

groups). Skilled and professional workers will have to 

come from these groups in greater numbers than in the 

past if there is not to be a shortage.

In the U.S. labor market, there is a tradition of male 

occupations and of female occupations, and there has 

been little change in this pattern.14 The growth in female 

participation has occurred largely in occupations traditionally held by women. What would happen if demand 

would no longer grow in those sectors? The argument 

has been presented that higher participation would be 

translated into greater continuity of work and, thus, 

into more capacity to retain skills and professional abilities that diminish if not used. Given that much of the 

increase in female labor force activity will probably 

come from mothers, employers may have to review their 

personnel practices (such as provision of day care) to 

attract these workers.15

By 1995, the youngest of the baby-boom generation 

will be in their thirties. They may well face competition 

for career positions which may result in frustration for 

some and greater productivity for all. The older members of the baby-boom generation will be in the preretirement years and should be at the peak of their productivity.

Immigration. Along with growth in the native adult 

population and increased labor force activity, immigration represents a possible source of labor force growth. 

For purposes of this discussion, migration can be divided into two groups, legal or “documented” migration 

and illegal or “undocumented” migration. The Bureau 

of the Census projects that “documented” net migration 

will average 400,000 persons a year, with bulges in a 

few years such as 1976 and 1980 when large numbers of 

refugees reached our shores. To estimate the proportion 

of the labor force growth that net migration represents, 

we can look at 1979. The labor force participation rate 

for those age 16 and older was 63.7 percent. If the comparable rate for the migrant population was about the

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same, and ignoring the fact that there are proportionately fewer older persons in the migrant population, 

some 173,000 would have been in the labor force in 

1979, or about 7 percent of the actual labor force 

growth.16 Documented workers vary from those with 

high skills (the brain drain) and professional athletes to 

lower skilled agricultural and service workers.

Undocumented workers also represent a variety of 

skills, from college graduates to unskilled workers. By 

their nature, we know little about these people as a 

group. The discussion that follows is based on a study 

conducted by Jacob S. Siegel, Jeffrey S. Passel, and J. 

Gregory Robinson for the Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy.17 After a review of past estimates, they concluded that there are 3 to 6 million 

undocumented workers in the United States. It is important not to confuse the stock of undocumented 

workers with the flow of documented workers discussed 

in the preceding paragraph. The only information available about flows of undocumented workers is for Mexicans. There appears to be considerable movement in 

both directions netting to zero (with large seasonal fluctuation). There is no way of ascertaining what portion 

of undocumented workers, if any, are currently accounted for in existing labor force data. Therefore, no changes have been made to the projections to account for 

undocumented workers.

Obviously, these last few paragraphs have raised rather than answered questions about the implications of the 

changing structure of the labor force. The topics discussed here illustrate some uses for which these projections have been generated; there also are other uses. Q

FOOTNOTES

These projections replace those described by Paul O. Flaim and

Howard N Fullerton, Jr. in “Labor force projections to 1990: three

possible paths,” Monthly Labor Review, pp. 25-35, December 1978.

2 These scenarios are prepared by projecting the changes in the ratio of the total labor force to the total population for each of 54 agesex-race groups; the levels of the anticipated labor force were calculated by applying the projected rates to the Bureau of the Census’ population projections. The high and low scenarios do not represent

“confidence intervals,” but rather different views of the future. A

complete methodological statement is in preparation.

3 The term “blacks” refers to black and other races, which includes

Negroes, American Indians, Eskimos, and others. At the time of the

1970 Census of Population, 89 percent of this population group was

black.

4 Projections of the Population of the United States: 1977 to 2050,

Current Population Reports (Bureau of the Census, Series P-25, No.

704, 1977). For an analysis of recent fertility trends, see Arthur A.

Campbell, “Baby Boom to Birth Dearth and Beyond,” Annals, January 1978, pp. 40-60.

5 There is no standard definition of the baby-boom period; this article uses the 1950’s, as described in Leon F. Bouvier, “America’s Baby

Boom Generation: The Fateful Bulge,” Population Bulletin, Vol. 35,

No. 1, 1980.

6 Projections of the Population . . . , Table A-5. A moderate increase

in fertility is plausable because the Series II population projections are

tracking well at this time.

7 Projections of the Population . . . , Table A-5.

8 Flaim and Fullerton, “Labor force projections. ...” Projections

were not published for 1995.

"There is no standard definition of the “economic dependency ratio.” See Henry S. Shryock, Jacob S. Siegel, and others, The Methods

and Materials of Demography (Bureau of the Census, 1973), p. 235.

’“Jacob S. Siegel, “On the Demography of Aging,” Demography,

forthcoming, and Nathan Keyfitz, Applied Mathematical Deomography

(New York, John Wiley and Sons, 1977).

" Elizabeth Waldman and others, “Working mothers in the 1970’s:

a look at the statistics,” Monthly Labor Review, October 1979, pp. 39

-49.

12 George L. Perry, “Potential Output and Productivity,” Brookings

Papers on Economic Activity, 1977; J. R. Norsworthy, M. J. Harper,

and K. Kunze, “The Slowdown in Productivity Growth: Analysis of

Some Contributing Factors,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,

1979; and the discussion by Martin Neil Baily, Edward F. Denison,

and Michael L. Wachter in the same issue.

13 Edward F. Denison, Accounting for United States Economic

Growth, 1929-1969 (Washington, The Brookings Institution, 1974),

and Accounting for Slower Economic Growth (Washington, The

Brookings Institution, 1979).

14 Valerie K. Oppenheimer, “Demographic Influence on Female Employment and the Status of Women,” in Joan Hamber, ed., Changing

Women in a Changing Society (Chicago, University of Chicago Press,

1973).

15 Peter F. Drucker, Managing in Turbulent Times (New York,

Harper and Row, 1980).

16 Projections of the Population. . . . Table C-l contains the distribution of the immigrant population.

17 Jacob S. Siegel, Jeffery S. Passel, and J. Gregory Robinson, “Preliminary Review of Existing Studies of the Number of Illegal

Residents in the United States” (Washington, Select Commission on

Immigration and Refugee Policy, 1980).

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Appendix A. Gross National Product and Components,

Selected Historical and Projected Years, 1963 to 1990

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Table A-1. Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 830503 1007284 1182760 1597947 1725780 1715750 1818222 2077928 2076188

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 1545 1781 1337 , 1510 1568 1564 1725 1829 1856

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 557 108 485 716 742 727 878 1042 1014

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 887 -350 700 1238 1268 1226 1320 1474 1399

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 1691 2481 3114 7171 7611 7342 8215 9515 8774

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 5367 5377 6315 10694 11325 11077 12308 13672 13147

6. Forestry and fishery products................. .............................. -729 -1349 -706 -233 -283 -263 -346 -537 -523

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 130 368 303 421 465 460 507 604 606

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................................................ -532 -627 -534 -543 -632 -635 -572 -746 -780

9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 1 -9 -43 -75 -90 -90 -83 -112 -118

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... -48 -161 -120 -127 -131 -128 -84 -116 -125

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 954 1040 771 2978 3180 3048 3751 4241 3855

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... -1596 -1169 -2633 -4715 -5389 -5342 -4426 -5613 -5668

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 638 757 918 1034 1038 1029 1074 1123 1106

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 2 89 26 74 68 60 70 54 27

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 7249 7906 9454 10140 10210 10154 11020 11447 11491

16. Ordnance ............................................................................... 1844 5302 2879 2906 3004 2982 3291 3452 3514

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 4423 5251 3734 4890 4796 4746 5021 4869 4987

18. Meat products .............................. .......................................... 17385 19487 21195 23735 24545 24455 26005 27563 27901

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 9605 10941 11039 15412 16047 15995 16640 17750 18022

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 7476 8586 9707 12423 12904 12858 13426 14257 14451

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 2590 3564 4361 6485 6772 6708 7395 7992 7961

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 6897 7037 6903 6726 7013 7000 6778 7239 7379

23. Sugar....................................................................................... -168 -117 60 288 217 222 295 204 218

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 2243 2792 2710 2971 3085 3076 3191 3380 3436

25. Alcoholic beverages ................................................................ 4360 4803 7471 10950 11039 11002 12753 12899 12879

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 2281 3903 4676 7638 7977 7948 9282 9950 10100

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................ 5685 6564 6973 8273 8607 8519 9263 9932 9852

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 7508 7453 7078 7263 7448 7369 7333 7625 7486

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 766 627 537 851 812 776 937 851 718

30. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 966 1561 2689 4373 4707 4669 5017 5743 5749

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... -236 -128 -79 94 45 31 -3 -110 -165

32. Hosiery and knit goods.................................................... ...... 751 1002 1487 1570 1721 1724 1671 1834 1854

33. Apparel.................................................................................... 17039 18896 19662 24528 26485 26554 28209 30725 31140

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. 1706 2504 3107 3498 3858 3816 3853 4593 4679

35. Logging.................................................................................... 132 275 391 972 1036 988 1146 1291 1155

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 1661 1911 1953 1423 1314 1303 1434 951 892

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 3431 3793 6405 8095 8426 8389 8463 9265 9299

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 2 36 15 12 11 11 14 11 10

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 4520 5184 6754 8520 9171 9135 9441 10882 11165

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 2229 2967 3458 4407 5105 5100 5038 6698 6715

41. Paper products........................................................................ 1476 1835 2739 2575 2537 2484 2760 2615 2467

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 185 227 255 291 308 304 325 369 363

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 1798 2045 1958 2488 2895 2865 2780 3133 3176

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 3180 3776 4138 6774 7255 7194 7922 9056 9073

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 1219 1815 2277 2718 2814 2791 2990 3262 3274

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... 1929 2012 1796 3817 3869 3698 4680 4853 4392

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 303 444 475 1130 1178 1129 1431 1561 1413

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 935 1519 1328 2039 2105 2065 2314 2468 2393

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 398 459 562 1242 1300 1236 1457 1613 1425

50. Synthetic fibers ........................................................................ 115 44 -13 376 377 349 514 520 422

51. Drugs........................................................................................ 2705 3573 5696 10994 11208 11179 12853 13731 13562

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 4403 5927 7581 9477 10044 9941 10708 12090 12137

53. Paints and qllied products...................................................... 588 678 917 1053 1096 1087 1196 1329 1324

54. Petroleum refining and related products ............................... 11676 14248 14899 14818 16399 16363 14431 16179 16201

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 1695 1780 2675 2982 3295 3290 3203 3903 3860

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 956 1291 1240 1268 1274 1268 1400 1429 1419

57. Plastic products............. .......................................................... 797 1157 2065 5388 5658 5547 6693 7495 7350

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... -30 -64 -40 -66 -90 -94 -79 -122 -141

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 4122 4383 4122 4135 4353 4367 4455 4684 4744

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 662 826 907 924 936 912 1096 1169 1131

See footnotes at end of table.

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Table A-1. Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972 .

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

61. Cement and concrete products............................................. 5361 5592 6840 7293 7548 7528 7691 8407 8460

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 907 799 860 934 965 960 986 1002 1002

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 442 370 553 534 537 527 562 569 565

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 1469 1402 1640 2153 2219 2203 2354 2586 2576

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 2672 1127 -396 -1935 -2509 -2504 -3801 -5287 -5441

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 586 583 840 953 973 958 959 1024 993

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 2079 1835 2695 2964 3022 2991 3211 3469 3413

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... 89 132 -311 -325 -412 -430 -385 -586 -667

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... -807 -1103 -1195 -2394 -2763 -2751 -2941 -3746 -3824

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 92 126 73 93 96 94 106 121 115

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 1349 1205 1370 1513 1580 1568 1668 1750 1745

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 8008 10031 11803 15041 15875 15814 16287 18734 18782

73. Screw machine products........................................................ 169 313 124 132 106 101 151 110 97

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 490 716 1025 1714 1792 1725 2047 2289 2134

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 1290 1396 1839 2395 2498 2459 2704 2995 2945

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 1619 2477 3588 4741 5012 4959 5267 6043 5948

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 1464 2218 2791 4078 4584 4502 4534 5693 5499

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 2888 4309 4533 7982 9096 9064 9659 12628 12540

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 4646 5476 6427 11807 13481 13257 14822 19227 18610

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 1466 2105 2295 3359 3930 3913 4209 5719 5688

81. Metalworking machinery................................ ........................ 3097 4849 4628 6869 8115 8060 8027 10977 10847

82. Special industry machinery ...................................................... 3634 4784 4772 4849 5756 5707 5000 6923 6769

83. General industrial machinery ................................................... 3130 3561 3298 5236 6042 5973 6647 8880 8688

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c.................... ............................ 269 465 433 575 605 596 670 754 735

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 1798 3284 5325 19729 22538 22178 30012 38771 37680

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 772 1222 1142 2914 3381 3358 3500 4667 4629

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 2651 3882 4865 6567 7388 7338 7446 9426 9357

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 2422 3227 3725 5497 6246 6217 6605 8475 8440

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................. 1246 1966 1656 2398 2695 2663 3024 3809 3742

90. Household appliances............................................................. 3668 4406 5952 7280 7999 7947 8316 9664 9855

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 2233 2498 3113 3587 3807 3773 4174 4726 4706

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 1907 3408 3503 6154 7280 7127 6169 9209 9218

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 1458 2292 3102 4541 5408 5402 5516 7687 7684

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 7523 9530 7342 11761 12255 12195 14116 15631 15845

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 779 1213 1414 5222 5458 5237 6535 7118 6438

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 1096 1488 1890 2975 3306 3273 3530 4275 4209

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 27202 31750 43373 56665 67456 67465 66511 86250 85908

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... , 13732 17537 12822 24729 25085 24703 29019 30658 30084

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 2220 3283 3988 5822 6363 6311 6987 8364 8447

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 1490 2377 1747 2922 3467 3457 3636 5092 5077

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 123 214 357 496 611 590 596 912 926

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. 877 1743 5037 4226 4661 4644 4597 5476 5504

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 1905 2334 2686 5732 6378 6319 6611 8141 8044

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 735 1190 1691 3185 3608 3587 3906 5070 5027

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 400 614 917 2156 2336 2327 2745 3371 3350

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 1013 2157 3569 7121 8185 8090 8615 11008 10820

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 300 440 322 786 810 811 838 917 908

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 1144 1651 2104 2429 2444 2447 2582 2899 2873

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 2302 2558 3622 4639 5409 5355 5132 6319 6353

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 1376 1741 2189 2667 2840 2806 2881 3274 3233

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 5118 5687 5596 6660 7138 7055 7431 8455 8341

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 4258 4510 4896 5345 5564 5570 5979 6246 6245

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 8023 9199 12312 14740 16055 15920 17153 19972 19890

114. Water transportation............................................................... 3153 3419 3508 5496 5789 5629 6406 7027 6640

115. Air transportation..................................................................... 2597 5322 7224 13123 14132 13987 17066 19515 19187

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 241 344 388 537 577 568 636 700 674

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 196 142 411 536 571 557 655 749 702

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 8275 11902 17790 34700 38176 37851 42112 49474 49867

120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 8508 10868 14554 21444 22716 22537 25020 27454 27868

See footnotes at end of table.

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Table A-1. Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 5093 5982 7009 6733 6760 6753 6675 6789 6725

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 2428 2684 2997 3691 3761 3756 4282 4505 4566

123. Wholesale trade..................................................................... 37667 46522 60941 79189 86561 85925 92533 109063 108766

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 29602 31766 36595 48630 51744 51701 55140 59383 60376

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 74866 91792 110451 138723 153251 152905 163565 190496 193007

126. Banking.................................................................................... 9529 10512 15182 23590 23970 23808 27145 28177 28377

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 5226 8721 7776 10723 13492 13740 11775 15264 15559

128. Insurance................................................................................. 14056 16676 19929 27720 28516 28515 33105 37085 37355

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 50347 60500 76688 116740 129850 130088 135401 157740 160714

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 26240 30792 41103 55412 60294 60196 62982 71635 72278

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 3388 4522 5993 7973 8746 8694 9145 9868 10091

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 9697 11070 12181 12336 14516 14577 13245 16713 17173

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 3935 4515 4310 4133 4495 4504 4067 4873 5024

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 5123 7186 8410 14663 15178 15044 16965 18262 18331

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 574 625 688 822 839 835 886 966 963

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 10383 11262 14406 20975 22004 21902 23937 27161 27673

137. Automobile repair.................................................................... 9599 11583 14698 21911 23659 23571 26309 30631 30475

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 2411 2084 2062 4565 5191 5106 5250 6452 6409

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 5317 5834 6578 12350 13458 13323 15259 17803 18166

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 14441 18126 23306 35732 37304 37440 41997 47854 48538

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 11004 14676 22390 38017 39647 39397 46200 53742 54208

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 3991 4745 8241 13632 14392 14337 15933 19647 19796

143. Educational services............................................................... 8430 11013 12789 14048 14634 14738 15412 16481 16706

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 10096 11968 13105 17757 19184 19284 20545 24387 24939

145. Post office............................................................................... 1945 2550 2902 3377 3529 3501 3638 3949 4001

146. Commodity Credit Corporation.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 280 389 421 426 461 449 507 573 547

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 827 1053 2051 2607 2766 2759 2925 3280 3280

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... -4692 -4423 -5062 -10856 -13414 -13234 -18167 -24432 -24715

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... 213 -1353 -1761 -13030 -5287 -5356 -18389 -8362 -8629

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 40518 49265 54968 59367 61646 61451 65979 72306 72826

153. Government industry .............................................................. 100232 121953 131948 161167 161167 159998 167585 167585 165869

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 2080 5798 6918 14025 14223 12784 14472 14165 9548

155. Households............................................................................. 6431 6442 5349 3986 4068 4065 3962 4004 4013

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. -251 -2127 -7591 -11519 -7000 -6941 -12897 -10246 -10189

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

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T able A-2. Peirsomal consum ption expenditures, selected historical and p ro jected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 501375 603172 738069 996029 1084101 1082627 1149936 1319912 1339262

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 1486 1716 1269 1437 1492 1490 1644 1746 1778

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 172 190 185 340 396 392 484 615 624

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 3 247 163 187 195 195 201 215 220

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 3793 4219 4417 5701 6101 6083 6352 7060 7205

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 623 249 848 1385 1499 1494 1628 1828 1864

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 21 168 125 226 263 261 296 376 382

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 304 221 125 89 104 103 113 126 130

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 18 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 233 406 457 769 898 887 883 1120 1136

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 17303 19540 20976 23311 24292 24249 25349 27145 27686

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 9048 9968 10318 14602 15228 15201 15726 16797 17137

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 7213 8122 9382 11969 12483 12460 12970 13854 14133

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 2006 2858 3525 5169 5394 5384 5762 6159 6285

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 6772 6907 6762 6600 6884 6872 6627 7081 7225

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 846 890 1021 1115 1163 1161 1201 1284 1310

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 2217 2759 2703 2988 3118 3112 3219 3440 3511

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 4774 5341 8105 11960 12235 12190 13951 14442 14452

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 2172 3777 4511 7266 7582 7568 8816 9424 9618

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................ 4914 5912 5975 6796 7088 7075 7438 7945 8106

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 6890 6545 6087 5980 6098 6073 5923 6026 6032

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 796 720 639 821 912 912 940 1069 1089

30. Floor covering m ills................................................................. 804 1269 1391 2316 2506 2476 2816 3195 3191

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 131 141 123 150 165 163 179 206 208

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 732 959 1551 1726 1919 1923 1855 2083 2116

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 17213 19213 21012 27289 29742 29799 31500 35023 35566

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. 1556 2047 2775 3057 3429 3396 3409 4146 4254

35. Logging..................................................................................... 50 30 5 3 4 4 4 4 4

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 242 304 380 521 564 556 640 728 727

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

39. Household furniture................................................................. 3821 4520 5706 7365 7914 7884 8163 9277 9573

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 228 278 257 347 375 371 428 485 485

41. Paper products........................................................................ 1589 1782 2389 2565 2785 2778 2941 3288 3339

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 89 86 106 98 108 108 111 126 128

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 1788 2036 1949 2475 2884 2855 2767 3120 3165

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 2247 2509 2901 5223 5726 5688 6167 7258 7340

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 592 808 880 1033 1128 1123 1179 1356 1390

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... 14 21 20 29 32 32 32 38 39

47. Agricultural chemicals............................................................. 77 109 153 253 278 277 296 334 339

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 277 295 375 456 505 504 544 626 633

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

51. Drugs........................................................................................ 2013 2613 4175 7380 7541 7585 8530 9108 9146

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 4081 5435 7069 8662 9209 9127 9596 10852 10954

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 28 60 123 114 125 125 132 149 151

54. Petroleum refining and related products ............................... 9004 10924 13503 12081 13183 13175 11481 12693 12742

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 1392 1483 2594 3238 3652 3649 3533 4423 4420

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 734 911 1081 1197 1246 1244 1389 1526 1541

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 165 380 688 2080 2267 2218 2613 3008 3042

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 4364 4760 4923 5407 5834 5836 5750 6342 6427

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 375 523 563 587 638 626 723 831 838

See footnotes at end of table.

63

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-2. Personal consumption expenditures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II ' Low High I High II

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 287 305 414 484 525 514 532 608 612

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 143 164 206 323 349 348 337 408 423

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 14 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 4 8 8 9 10 10 11 14 14

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ 13 10 20 26 28 27 31 35 36

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 63 39 80 94 105 105 120 145 149

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 19 21 49 68 74 73 84 95 95

73. Screw machine products........................................................ 41 52 40 38 43 42 44 53 55

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 333 416 421 405 439 429 487 559 564

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware............................. 578 705 849 1092 1178 1162 1240 1431 1436

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 153 202 299 318 348 344 367 421 426

77. Engines, turbines, and generators......................................... 154 167 138 236 275 270 269 356 360

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 13 42 66 92 99 98 113 128 128

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 0. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 92 95 168 234 254 251 289 328 328

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 25 24 45 63 69 68 78 89 89

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................ 3 5 18 28 31 31 35 41 41

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 0 0 12 307 333 329 403 458 458

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 142 149 199 297 322 318 362 411 410

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 393 466 486 587 659 655 646 779 800

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 9 12 29 30 34 33 34 40 40

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ 16 19 24 34 37 36 42 48 48

90. Household appliances............................................................. 2573 3447 4573 5924 6620 6577 6575 7754 7980

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 530 668 926 1193 1329 1318 1436 1676 1689

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 1678 3503 4817 9763 11505 11333 11720 16345 16513

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 0 0 17 23 25 25 29 33 33

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 82 63 78 155 183 180 184 257 260

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 172 165 319 634 746 735 753 1049 1060

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 525 764 1156 1668 1884 1878 1960 2361 2376

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 15560 19145 28380 37333 44495 44679 42403 53114 53794

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 60 60 106 181 211 208 206 273 277

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 267 479 973 1668 1940 1910 1898 2516 2545

100. Railroad equipment................................................. ............... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 225 361 1313 2102 2444 2407 2367 3137 3174

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. 139 457 1628 1383 1635 1632 1466 1874 1898

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 22 30 33 47 50 49 55 61 62

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 156 207 275 395 411 413 499 568 573

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 275 407 486 799 864 865 886 1104 1117

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 448 780 1072 2155 2493 2471 2651 3294 3348

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 388 521 524 936 1004 1006 1048 1225 1232

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 1322 1867 2255 2685 2791 2804 2921 3399 3431

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 2068 2413 3396 4932 5789 5742 5491 6791 6906

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 880 1131 1343 1679 1839 1825 1960 2284 2313

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 2474 2715 2486 2863 3101 3098 3299 3709 3761

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 3818 3846 4158 4681 4907 4914 5280 5535 5532

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 3429 3975 6675 7563 8142 8117 8672 9846 10001

114. Water transportation............................................................... 800 643 1028 1237 1335 1332 1427 1609 1625

115. Air transportation.................................................................... 1941 3575 5806 9589 10578 10572 12416 14723 14834

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 167 230 290 300 328 327 335 366 367

117. Transportation services............... .......................................... 25 104 196 243 259 258 274 318 314

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 6249 8920 12879 26690 29366 29110 32385 37753 38245

120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 7066 8949 12220 19093 20358 20181 22577 24972 25366

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized for FRASER 

64

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-2. Personal consum ption expenditures, selected historical and p ro jected years, 1963 to 1990— C ontinued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 4855 5723 6555 6591 6708 6700 6651 6957 6915

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 2351 2580 2801 3434 3495 3492 4000 4212 4270

123. Wholesale trade ..................................................................... 24284 29563 38163 44825 48532 48390 51228 58334 58974

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 30451 32556 37496 49486 52502 52463 56226 60409 61371

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 66170 83533 102158 129662 143142 142816 153651 178045 180511

126. Banking.................................................................................... 7517 8527 12374 19665 20018 19892 23174 23989 24228

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 5049 8516 7579 10527 13263 13512 11585 15020 15318

128. Insurance................................................................................. 13389 16020 19082 26658 27442 27460 31962 35894 36218

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 50347 60500 76688 116740 129850 130088 135401 157740 160714

130. Real estate........................................................................... 21524 25583 31977 43926 48265 48358 50402 57781 58793

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 2659 3666 5274 6788 7543 7497 7987 8687 8884

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 9295 10606 11362 11486 13623 13686 12266 15591 16046

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 3935 4515 4310 4133 4495 4504 4067 4873 5024

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 618 1342 1901 3100 3487 3464 3608 4493 4588

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 165 179 123 150 158 159 169 204 215

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 4233 4952 5350 9005 9661 9642 10806 12986 13546

137. Automobile repair................................................................... 8998 10810 13780 20954 22662 22576 25291 29529 29365

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 1801 1598 1672 3421 3986 3946 3926 4990 5062

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 5743 6213 6998 12700 13798 13660 15616 18169 18522

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 14073 17436 21676 33165 34724 34864 39307 45037 45716

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 10304 13248 19745 33517 35126 34880 41322 48634 49085

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 3445 3539 4898 9016 9740 9690 10785 14201 14355

143. Educational services............................................................... 6556 8664 11124 12014 12588 12750 13220 14295 14546

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 9997 11861 13025 17647 19072 19175 20429 24264 24826

145. Post office............................................................................... 1467 1781 1869 2128 2276 2259 2314 2592 2642

146. Commodity Credit Corporation.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 182 268 300 157 175 175 189 214 224

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 761 982 1987 2537 2692 2686 2855 3204 3205

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 3785 5332 6550 6457 7076 7095 7268 8638 8788

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... 1761 2639 2163 2279 2737 2748 3184 4022 4077

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

153. Government industry .............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... -1815 -2587 -3524 -7172 -7831 -7855 -7916 -9466 -9591

155. Households............................................................................. 6431 6442 5349 3986 4068 4065 3961 4003 4013

156. Inventory valuation adjustment ............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

65

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-3. Gross private domestic investment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 124491 152600 195279 246388 292733 292521 286821 390171 392600

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 2 -6 -20 -25 -25 -25 -29 -35 -35

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 662 195 459 551 562 557 601 723 719

3. Cotton....................................................................................... -69 122 289 454 463 459 508 611 607

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 256 932 1336 1830 1867 1851 2032 2443 2430

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 1053 118 556 764 783 777 835 992 988

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 86 7 18 26 27 26 35 42 42

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 48 113 81 91 95 95 96 107 108

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... -65 31 8 13 13 13 18 22 22

9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... -5 6 23 23 23 23 28 33 33

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 34 73 202 211 257 258 284 413 415

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 0 214 81 117 119 118 130 156 155

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 32 314 129 163 182 181 186 246 246

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 261 226 416 541 564 562 617 688 692

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... -1 6 -8 -12 -12 -12 -13 -16 -16

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 28 24 27 30 31 31 32 36 36

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 1 138 81 50 52 51 80 95 94

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... -23 104 71 140 175 175 203 299 301

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 257 287 294 375 383 380 415 498 496

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 15 55 69 84 86 85 90 108 108

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 39 295 134 170 174 172 188 227 225

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 81 77 188 246 251 249 275 331 329

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 24 25 14 18 18 18 20 25 24

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 142 55 12 15 16 16 20 25 24

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 36 53 31 39 40 39 42 50 50

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 75 191 254 348 356 353 391 468 466

V

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 32 49 39 50 51 50 55 66 66

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................ 136 92 233 307 313 311 340 409 406

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 39 235 223 289 295 292 293 352 351

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 41 130 279 384 392 389 448 538 535

30. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 174 275 1281 2066 2226 2222 2214 2596 2617

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 116 112 150 292 302 300 335 394 394

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 15 40 89 131 134 133 154 185 184

33. Apparel.................................................................................. 89 319 660 945 964 956 1120 1346 1339

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. 48 55 169 245 250 248 281 338 336

35. Logging..................................................................................... -5 5 11 14 14 14 17 20 20

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 1982 2318 2815 2945 3092 3082 3090 3458 3488

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 3188 3273 6227 7800 8191 8168 8195 9138 9221

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 1 3 3 -6 -6 -6 -6 -7 -7

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 749 638 1122 1302 1452 1448 1512 1954 1959

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household .............................. 1663 2199 2679 3367 4062 4068 3848 5475 5506

41. Paper products........................................................................ 347 478 500 627 650 647 693 798 800

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 47 46 64 90 92 91 103 123 123

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 4 2 14 23 23 23 25 30 30

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 103 157 96 163 167 166 183 220 219

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 69 211 173 255 260 258 288 345 344

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ 189 288 282 344 391 390 411 544 546

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 30 89 66 92 94 93 99 119 118

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 141 134 294 364 376 374 417 478 479

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 13 42 87 134 136 135 158 191 190

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 12 -19 -14 -24 -24 -24 -30 -36 -36

51. Drugs........................................................................................ 106 123 212 353 360 357 407 490 487

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 78 110 169 195 199 197 401 482 479

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 377 414 557 659 686 684 758 857 862

54. Petroleum refining and related products ............................... 985 1294 958 1023 1066 1063 1163 1297 1306

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 93 97 288 344 354 352 383 448 447

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 89 103 149 176 188 187 186 222 223

57. Plastic products........................................................................ 406 459 1113 2590 2700 2688 3049 3484 3500

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... -13 -8 45 52 53 53 63 76 75

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... -67 27 209 234 239 237 281 338 336

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 216 183 289 365 376 374 423 493 493

See footnotes at end of table.

66

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-3. Gross private domestic investment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 3615 3473 4676 5518 5779 5763 6012 6681 6739

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 747 636 759 852 894 891 913 1015 1024

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 211 196 328 368 383 382 412 462 465

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 976 860 1132 1534 1596 1591 1701 1904 1916

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 2054 1892 1965 1877 1945 1938 2133 2407 2417

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 386 314 205 235 245 245 259 292 294

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 1515 1839 2451 2722 2842 2832 2997 3388 3407

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................ 126 166 -12 -29 -29 -29 -38 -47 -47

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 22 131 108 162 165 164 207 248 247

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 53 92 45 55 59 58 61 77 77

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 1063 951 1136 1235 1292 1288 1340 1501 1512

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 5306 6567 8714 11265 12081 12055 12287 14589 14680

73. Screw machine products........................................................ 95 111 91 118 121 121 136 159 159

74. Metal stampings.....*................................................................ 97 43 155 205 209 207 226 271 269

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 555 429 840 1008 1058 1054 1117 1290 1296

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c. ........................................... 1021 1534 2817 3496 3786 3778 4029 4853 4877

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 596 1056 1779 2145 2576 2579 2362 3363 3379

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 2661 4093 4396 7236 8561 8575 8714 12210 12276

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 2811 3358 4344 6894 8284 8293 8831 12566 12631

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 1200 1769 2068 2945 3515 3519 3759 5272 5302

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 2325 4347 4016 5515 6718 6729 6430 9286 9337

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 2926 4215 4382 4529 5521 5530 4794 6925 6963

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 2231 2647 2652 4325 5188 5195 5729 8118 8163

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 30 87 106 138 149 149 160 204 203

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 1089 2382 3738 11051 13486 13510 17214 24875 25018

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 410 671 616 2121 2599 2604 2671 3880 3903

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 1733 2606 3434 4564 5274 5274 5281 7058 7098

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 1784 2476 3053 4382 5176 5181 5289 7289 7331

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ 728 1171 1124 1526 1829 1831 1903 2704 2716

90. Household appliances............................................................. 987 902 1595 2008 2153 2147 2639 3112 3133

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 1185 1192 1628 1922 2026 2019 2234 2586 2599

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 278 251 486 854 930 926 991 1275 1275

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 1267 2032 2896 4147 5034 5042 5036 7251 7289

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 1335 2384 1534 3042 3711 3718 4409 6371 6409

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 90 174 13 197 206 204 264 325 323

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 328 334 580 957 1128 1128 1267 1770 1777

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 8347 10635 17541 24413 29694 29742 27407 39503 39717

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 1092 5259 2183 3087 3712 3716 3665 5230 5255

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 447 941 1375 1859 2203 2203 2318 3269 3282

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 1247 2146 1492 2636 3173 3177 3386 4839 4862

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 10 56 131 178 193 192 204 261 261

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. 721 1296 3455 2866 3066 3059 3162 3673 3705

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 832 1094 1512 3295 3909 3913 3828 5297 5329

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 349 615 1041 1998 2396 2398 2523 3597 3614

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 119 206 459 1449 1626 1628 1970 2527 2539

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 190 692 1695 3261 3995 4003 3910 5678 5711

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 17 8 37 55 56 56 65 78 78

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 10 40 190 261 266 264 285 343 341

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 306 321 494 680 780 779 869 1186 1188

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 363 490 703 851 976 976 901 1204 1208

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 1247 1208 1395 1650 1802 1798 1841 2268 2279

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 5 7 11 13 13 13 14 15 15

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 2034 1656 2425 2692 3300 3295 2996 4284 4309

114. Water transportation............................................................... 75 74 180 210 222 222 224 261 262

115. Air transportation..................................................................... 131 216 150 173 198 198 184 238 239

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 9 15 7 9 9 9 11 13 13

117. Transportation services.................................................. ...... 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 1115 1548 2439 3286 3975 3981 4017 5726 5761

120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 143 30 41 46 48 48 50 55 56

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized for FRASER 

67

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
T ab le A-3. G ross p rivate dom estic investm ent, selected historical and p ro jected years, 1963 to 1990— C ontinued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

121. Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................ 4 7 5 5 6 6 6 6 7

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 56 14 80 90 94 94 97 108 109

123. Wholesale trade ..................................................................... 6125 7234 11838 15410 17634 17628 18242 24119 24255

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 306 434 423 472 495 494 512 567 572

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 8115 7466 7557 8236 9254 9249 9038 11487 11576

126. Banking.................................................................................... 229 192 286 320 335 335 346 384 387

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 14 16 26 29 31 31 32 36 36

128. Insurance................................................................................. 247 266 263 293 307 306 320 355 358

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 3191 3240 5012 5601 5895 5881 6093 6747 6818

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 6 10 15 16 17 17 18 20 20

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 75 125 200 212 258 258 282 407 409

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 457 996 971 1340 1402 1398 1481 1643 1657

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 102 91 43 48 50 50 52 57 58

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 2928 3078 4507 5962 6233 6216 6574 7292 7353

137. Automobile repair.................................................................... 316 319 318 354 370 369 390 432 436

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 9 -67 -164 8 8 8 31 37 37

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 9 12 9 11 11 11 11 13 13

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

143. Educational services............................................................... 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3

144. Nonprofit organizations.......................................................... 66 71 47 52 55 55 57 63 63

145. Post office............................................................................... 25 26 29 33 34 34 35 39 39

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 4 20 5 6 6 6 7 7 7

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 41 -104 43 49 52 51 53 61 62

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... -2363 -4609 -5114 -16186 -8660 -8667 -21441 -11428 -11509

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 27667 32323 41386 45003 47119 46993 51437 57038 57540

153. Government industry .............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. -251 -2127 -7591 -11519 -7000 -6941 -12897 -10246 -10189

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

Digitized 

68

for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-4. Producers’ durable equipment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 42714 62407 77273 113907 145419 145713 141992 214486 215741

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 35 65 199 207 254 254 282 410 412

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 12 18 53 73 90 90 88 128 129

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 12 34 80 152 187 187 217 315 317

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

23. Sugar........................................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

30. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 52 83 244 314 385 386 356 518 521

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 1 1 3 2 2 2 3 4 4

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

35. Logging..................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 7 9 5 5 6 6 4 6 6

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 153 190 570 568 697 698 645 938 943

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 1481 1978 2388 3015 3697 3704 3468 5042 5071

41. Paper products........................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ 45 83 164 188 231 231 228 331 333

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

51. Drugs........................................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

54. Petroleum refining and related products............................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 22 36 31 29 36 36 24 35 35

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 3 6 11 16 20 20 23 33 33

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

69

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-4. Producers’ durable equipment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 3

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 41 45 64 80 98 99 89 129 130

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 12 14 13 14 18 18 14 21 21

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 665 1131 1197 1961 2404 2409 2598 3776 3798

73. Screw machine products........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware............................. 15 24 30 48 58 59 61 89 90

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 299 389 683 881 1080 1082 1001 1456 1464

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 557 984 1606 1886 2312 2317 2078 3021 3039

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 2596 3606 4202 6917 8235 8252 8334 11752 11821

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 2500 3116 3774 6053 7421 7436 7851 11414 11480

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 930 1373 1641 2445 2998 3004 3172 4611 4638

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 2243 4150 3878 5304 6503 6516 6189 8997 9050

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 2889 4104 4261 4373 5361 5372 4616 6711 6750

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 1912 2344 2170 3720 4561 4571 5045 7334 7377

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 10 7 39 40 48 49 48 69 70

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 1062 2272 3713 10727 13151 13178 16697 24274 24416

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 389 621 610 2113 2591 2596 2661 3869 3891

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 1303 1965 2078 2834 3475 3482 3355 4878 4906

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 1483 2095 2318 3325 4077 4085 4074 5922 5957

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ 682 1082 992 1322 1620 1624 1660 2413 2427

90. Household appliances............................................................. 130 142 215 301 369 370 401 582 586

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 66 78 82 160 197 197 230 335 337

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 118 119 184 279 342 343 355 516 519

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 1284 1939 2748 3906 4789 4798 4756 6914 6955

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 1263 1834 1444 2938 3602 3610 4294 6243 6279

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 99 20 14 21 26 26 26 38 39

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................. 250 255 414 727 892 893 998 1451 1459

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 7497 10978 16664 23260 28517 28575 26061 37886 38108

98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 604 2945 1981 2738 3357 3364 3272 4756 4784

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 476 712 1145 1488 1824 1828 1915 2784 2800

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 1221 2190 1491 2352 2884 2890 3052 4437 4463

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 8 35 46 57 70 71 64 93 93

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. 111 173 184 314 385 386 425 618 622

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 535 738 1146 2595 3182 3188 3030 4405 4431

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 321 579 973 1739 2132 2136 2241 3258 3277

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 116 199 393 1314 1488 1491 1784 2303 2316

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 172 611 1682 3245 3978 3987 3891 5657 5690

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 284 240 323 424 520 521 561 815 820

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 273 344 443 509 624 625 522 759 764

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 282 388 380 461 565 566 548 797 801

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 508 615 673 693 1217 1220 787 1799 1809

114. Water transportation............................................................... 6 8 24 23 28 28 19 28 28

115. Air transportation.................................................................... 16 41 81 93 114 114 95 137 138

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 951 1353 2167 2982 3656 3663 3687 5361 5392

120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

70

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
T able A=4„ P roducers’ durable equipm ent, selected historical and p ro jected years, 1963 to 1990— C ontinued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

123. Wholesale trade ..................................................................... 3012 4168 6421 8628 10578 10600 10834 15751 15843

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 3278 3235 2677 3417 4189 4198 4260 6193 6229

126. Banking.................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

128. Insurance................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 73 123 192 202 248 249 272 395 398

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

137. Automobile repair.................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

143. Educational services............................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

145. Post office............................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 1 3 5 3 3 3 5 7 7

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... -1649 -3480 -3933 -9578 -5976 -5988 -11276 -8331 -8380

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

153. Government industry .............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment ............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

71

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-5. Nonresidential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 30823 41009 42478 46296 49362 49205 55699 62750 63100

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 5 5

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 35 25 18 20 21 21 24 27 27

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 22 57 13 14 14 14 16 18 18

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 145 144 227 297 308 307 367 408 410

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 11 14 8 9 9 9 10 12 12

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 5 2 4 5 5 5 6 6 6

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 9 8 2 2 2 2 2 2 3

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

25. Alcoholic beverages ................................................................ 11 1 5 5 6 6 6 7 7

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

30. Floor covering m ills................................................................. 1 10 32 35 36 36 42 46 47

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c..................................................:.... 27 10 5 5 5 5 6 7 7

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 9 13 2 3 3 3 3 3 4

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

35. Logging.................................................................................... 3 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 3

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 200 269 173 191 197 197 227 253 254

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 482 785 888 977 1011 1007 1164 1294 1301

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

39. Household furniture ................................................................ 7 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 4

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 96 111 91 100 104 104 120 133 134

41. Paper products........................................................................ 95 83 58 64 66 66 76 85 85

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 4 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... 68 19 49 54 56 56 65 72 73

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 2 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 84 77 114 125 130 129 149 166 167

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

51. Drugs....................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

52. Cleaning and-toilet preparations............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 94 153 156 171 177 177 204 227 228

54. Petroleum refining and related products............................... 455 498 548 552 571 570 668 743 747

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 32 41 48 53 55 54 63 70 70

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 28 13 9 10 10 10 11 13 13

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 161 183 210 270 280 279 321 357 359

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 32 112 75

_____

83 86 85

_____

99 110 110

See footnotes at end of table.

72

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-5. Nonresidential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 1286 1861 1702 1873 1938 1932 2232 2482 2496

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 333 288 162 179 185 184 213 237 238

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 80 83 136 150 155 155 179 199 200

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 519 560 618 831 860 857 960 1068 1074

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 1292 1118 1149 1164 1205 1201 1307 1453 1461

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 267 230 70 77 80 79 92 102 103

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 833 1177 1613 1716 1776 1770 1914 2128 2140

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ 15 7 13 14 15 15 17 19 19

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 4 20 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 328 304 246 271 280 279 323 359 361

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 2851 3940 4820 6002 6212 6192 6421 7139 7178

73. Screw machine products........................................................ 68 26 21 24 24 24 28 31 32

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 38 7 7 8 8 8 10 11 11

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 134 159 181 199 206 206 238 264 266

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 347 691 1719 2090 2163 2156 2453 2727 2742

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 218 167 164 181 187 186 215 240 241

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 204 289 319 351 363 362 419 465 468

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 1 1 4 4 4 4 5 6 6

82. Speciaf industry machinery..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 153 33 141 155 160 160 185 205 207

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 3 23 3 3 3 3 3 4 4

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 254 271 358 518 536 535 627 697 701

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 240 207 322 463 479 477 553 614 618

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ 22 7 16 18 18 18 21 24 24

90. Household appliances............................................................. 6 38 44 48 50 50 58 64 65

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 601 649 925 1017 1052 1049 1212 1348 1355

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 42 40 30 33 34 34 40 44 44

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................. 14 20 15 16 17 17 19 21 22

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 28 18 12 14 14 14 16 18 18

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. 55 60 156 165 171 170 238 265 266

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 166 145 227 442 458 456 511 568 571

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 4 1 4 4 4 4 5 6 6

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 7 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 23 40 19 21 21 21 25 27 27

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 288 298 232 255 264 263 304 338 340

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 5 5

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 779 533 687 755 782 779 901 1001 1007

114. Water transportation............................................................... 31 24 49 54 56 56 64 71 72

115. Air transportation.................................................................... 54 61 18 20 21 21 24 27 27

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 62 118 82 90 93 93 107 119 120

120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 54 18 12 14 14 14 16 18 18

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized for FRASER 

73

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
T able A-5. Nonresidential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

121. Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................ 2 4 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 22 8 24 26 27 27 31 35 35

123. Wholesale trade...................................................................... 1051 1192 1700 2429 2514 2506 2858 3178 3196

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 138 239 127 140 144 144 166 185 186

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 1232 1341 982 1030 1065 1062 1227 1365 1372

126. Banking.................................................................................... 86 116 86 95 98 98 113 125 126

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 5 9 10 11 11 11 13 15 15

128. Insurance................................................................................. 133 160 96 105 109 109 126 140 140

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 457 689 616 745 771 769 680 756 760

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 1 2 4 5 5 5 6 6 7

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 4 4

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 209 604 411 593 614 612 707 786 790

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 46 55 13 14 15 15 17 19 19

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 1420 1642 2161 2875 2975 2966 3370 3747 3768

137. Automobile repair.................................................................... 121 198 134 148 153 152 176 195 197

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

143. Educational services............................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 25 41 14 15 16 16 18 20 20

145. Post office............................................................................... 9 16 8 9 9 9 11 12 12

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c....................... 2 12 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 3 6 10 11 11 11 13 15 15

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... -646 -139 -125 -2432 -1068 -1064 -1964 -1357 -1365

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 12658 18617 17137 18150 18784 18724 22471 24982 25121

153. Government industry .............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

Digitized for FRASER 

74

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-6. Residential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 43193 37178 65180 71168 77894 77714 71375 86301 87275

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. Cotton........................................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 9 5 15 17 18 18 18 20 20

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 321 33 91 103 108 108 107 118 119

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 25 57 69 77 81 81 80 88 89

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 114 68 166 216 228 227 219 242 245

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 18 10 19 21 22 22 22 24 25

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 0 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 5

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 8 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5

19. Dairy products ......................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

23. Sugar........................................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 11 21 8 10 10 10 10 11 11

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 4 7 4 4 4 4 4 5 5

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

30. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 89 165 866 1520 1604 1600 1597 1767 1787

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 28 1 88 96 101 101 97 108 109

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 12 27 5 6 6 6 6 6 7

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. 1 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

35. Logging..................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 1732 1962 2377 2423 2557 2551 2474 2738 2769

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 2640 2393 4977 6246 6591 6576 6392 7074 7154

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 490 386 194 207 218 218 266 294 298

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 68 62 122 137 145 144 142 157 159

41. Paper products........................................................................ 137 135 262 294 311 310 306 338 342

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 4 4

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 6 13 11 12 13 13 13 14 14

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ 28 2 12 14 14 14 14 16 16

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 2 2 6 6 7 7 7 7 7

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 31 14 81 91 96 96 95 105 106

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

51. Drugs........................................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 231 198 286 325 343 342 370 410 414

54. Petroleum refining and related products ............................... 316 215 369 414 437 436 430 476 481

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 5 9 61 69 73 73 72 79 80

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 23 15 62 68 72 71 70 77 78

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 190 195 582 1444 1524 1520 1662 1839 1860

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 83 21 58 65 68 68 67 74 75

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized for FRASER 

75

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-6. Residential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 2314 1541 2840 3493 3686 3677 3613 3999 4044

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 400 325 568 639 674 673 663 734 742

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 108 96 160 180 190 189 187 207 209

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 411 252 398 547 577 576 564 624 631

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 623 121 353 397 419 418 412 456 461

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 108 66 107 120 127 127 125 138 140

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 565 498 581 653 689 687 678 750 759

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ 35 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 6

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures............................... 715 610 769 815 860 858 848 939 949

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 1693 1377 2290 2775 2928 2921 2672 2957 2990

73. Screw machine products........................................................ 2 10 15 17 18 18 17 19 20

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 319 154 422 474 500 499 492 544 551

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c......................................... . 332 304 184 207 218 218 215 238 240

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 15 0 64 72 76 76 75 83 84

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 49 62 58 65 69 68 67 75 75

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 1 1 8 9 10 10 9 10 11

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 107 119 204 229 241 241 237 263 266

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 3 15 6 7 7 7 7 8 8

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 0 0 0 119 126 126 215 238 241

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 106 217 701 788 831 829 818 905 915

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 54 103 316 431 455 454 468 518 524

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ 3 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 2

90. Household appliances............................................................. 614 611 956 1198 1264 1261 1631 1805 1825

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 482 397 442 497 525 524 516 571 578

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 22 32 39 53 55 55 59 65 66

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 4 11 55 61 65 65 64 71 71

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 23 16 31 34 36 36 36 40 40

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 4 6 14 15 16 16 16 17 18

98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. 500 1030 2925 2160 2279 2274 2238 2476 2504

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 91 120 95 194 205 204 219 242 245

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 1 2 8 9 9 9 9 10 10

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 33 48 82 92 97 97 96 106 107

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 596 387 536 583 615 614 593 657 664

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 3 5 8 9 10 10 9 10 11

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 618 385 828 914 965 962 939 1039 1051

114. Water transportation............................................................... 28 21 76 82 87 87 83 92 93

115. Air transportation.................................................................... 60 111 42 47 49 49 49 54 54

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 102 77 191 214 226 226 223 246 249

120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 90 12 29 32 34 34 33 37 37

See footnotes at end of table.

76

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-6. Residential structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

121. Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................ 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 35 6 57 64 67 67 66 73 74

123. Wholesale trade ..................................................................... 1635 1287 2718 2911 3072 3065 2935 3248 3285

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 168 196 296 333 351 350 345 382 386

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 3605 2891 3896 3786 3995 3986 3547 3926 3970

126. Banking................................................................................... 143 76 200 225 238 237 234 259 262

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 9 6 17 19 20 20 19 21 22

128. Insurance..........................:...................................................... 115 106 167 188 198 198 195 216 218

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 2734 2551 4396 4856 5124 5112 5413 5991 6058

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 5 8 10 12 12 12 12 13 13

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 1 1 6 7 7 7 7 8 8

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 248 392 560 747 788 786 775 858 867

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 57 36 30 34 36 36 35 39 39

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 1508 1436 2345 3087 3258 3250 3204 3545 3585

137. Automobile repair.................................................................... 195 122 184 206 218 217 214 237 240

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 5 9 7 8 8 8 8 9 9

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services......................................,...... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

143. Educational services............................................................... 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

144. Nonprofit organizations ................................................ ......... 41 30 33 37 39 39 39 43 43

145. Post office............................................................................... 16 10 21 24 25 25 24 27 27

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 2 7 4 4 5 5 5 5 5

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 8 11 24 27 29 29 28 31 31

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... -211 -891 -1260 -4414 -1859 -1855 -8467 -2059 -2083

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 15009 13706 24250 26853 28335 28270 28966 32056 32418

153. Government industry .............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

77

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-7. Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 7762 12007 10350 15019 20060 19891 17757 26635 26485

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 2 -6 -20 -25 -25 -25 -29 -35 -35

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 662 195 459 551 562 557 601 723 719

3. Cotton........................................................................................ -69 122 289 454 463 459 508 611 607

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 246 925 1318 1810 1845 1830 2011 2419 2405

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 697 60 447 641 654 648 704 847 843

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 86 7 18 26 27 26 35 42 42

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... -65 31 8 13 13 13 18 22 22

9. Copper ore mining................................................................... -5 6 23 23 23 23 28 33 33

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... -1 8 4 4 4 4 2 3 3

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 0 214 81 117 119 118 130 156 155

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 20 296 75 90 92 91 98 118 118

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 2 14 23 28 29 29 31 38 37

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... -1 6 -8 -12 -12 -12 -13 -16 -16

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. -4 134 73 42 43 43 70 84 84

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... -35 70 -9 -12 -12 -12 -13 -16 -16

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 239 276 289 369 376 373 408 491 488

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 15 55 69 84 86 85 90 108 108

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 39 295 134 170 174 172 188 227 225

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 81 77 188 246 251 249 275 331 329

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 24 25 14 18 18 18 20 25 24

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 142 55 12 15 16 16 20 25 24

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 32 48 28 36 36 36 38 46 46

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 53 169 241 333 340 337 375 451 448

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 32 49 39 50 51 50 55 66 66

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................. 136 92 233 307 313 311 340 409 406

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 32 226 217 283 288 286 287 345 343

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 41 130 279 384 392 389 448 538 535

30. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 31 18 140 198 201 200 220 264 263

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 60 101 54 189 193 191 229 276 274

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 15 40 89 131 134 133 154 185 184

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 69 280 653 937 955 947 1111 1337 1329

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. 47 54 166 241 246 244 277 333 332

35. Logging..................................................................................... -8 2 9 12 12 12 14 17 17

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 49 87 265 331 338 335 389 468 465

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 60 86 358 573 584 579 635 764 760

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 1 3 3 -6 -6 -6 -6 -7 -7

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 99 58 356 524 534 530 597 719 715

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 19 48 78 115 117 116 119 143 142

41. Paper products........................................................................ 115 261 180 268 274 271 312 375 373

42. Paperboard.............................................................................. 42 45 61 86 88 87 98 118 118

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 4 2 14 23 23 23 25 30 30

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 99 154 92 158 162 160 178 214 213

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 58 194 158 238 242 240 270 325 323

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... 48 185 57 88 89 89 104 126 125

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 26 87 59 84 86 85 91 110 109

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 27 43 99 148 151 149 173 208 207

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 13 42 87 134 136 135 158 191 190

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 12 -19 -14 -24 -24 -24 -30 -36 -36

51. Drugs........................................................................................ 106 123 212 353 360 357 407 490 487

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 78 110 169 195 199 197 401 482 479

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 51 64 116 163 166 165 184 221 220

54. Petroleum refining and related products............................... 215 581 42 57 58 57 65 78 78

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 56 47 178 222 227 225 248 299 297

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 15 40 48 70 71 71 82 98 98

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 52 75 310 860 877 870 1043 1255 1248

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... -13 -8 45 52 53 53 63 76 75

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... -69 25 206 232 236 234 278 335 333

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 101 50 156 218 222 220 257 309 307

See footnotes at end of table.

78

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-7. Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 15 71 134 153 156 154 167 201 200

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 14 23 29 34 35 35 37 45 45

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 23 18 31 38 39 38 47 56 56

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 47 48 116 156 159 158 176 212 211

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 139 653 463 316 322 320 414 498 495

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 10 17 26 37 37 37 41 49 49

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 76 120 194 273 279 276 317 381 379

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... 77 156 -29 -49 -50 -49 -60 -72 -72

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 18 111 107 161 164 163 206 247 246

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 41 78 32 40 41 41 47 56 56

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 21 36 121 149 152 151 169 204 202

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 97 119 407 527 538 533 596 717 713

73. Screw rrjachine products........................................................ 25 75 55 78 80 79 90 108 108

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 59 36 148 196 200 199 216 260 258

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 87 92 207 287 293 291 326 393 390

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 43 150 232 318 324 322 360 433 431

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 39 72 173 259 264 262 284 342 340

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 66 487 194 319 326 323 380 458 455

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 78 75 342 588 599 594 690 830 825

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 17 45 51 84 86 85 101 121 121

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 80 195 126 198 201 200 227 273 271

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 37 111 121 156 159 158 178 214 213

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 60 152 138 221 225 224 263 316 314

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 14 43 59 89 90 90 102 123 122

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 27 110 25 205 209 207 302 363 361

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 21 51 5 8 9 8 10 12 12

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 69 153 298 423 432 428 481 579 576

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 7 71 98 163 166 165 194 234 233

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................. 22 77 115 186 189 188 221 266 264

90. Household appliances............................................................. 238 112 380 461 470 466 549 661 657

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 37 68 179 247 252 250 276 332 330

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 138 99 262 521 531 526 576 692 689

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... -16 93 149 241 246 244 280 336 334

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 27 501 6 10 10 10 12 14 14

95. Electronic components ........................................................... -9 155 -1 176 180 178 238 286 285

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 41 43 121 180 183 182 215 258 257

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 818 -367 851 1125 1147 1137 1315 1582 1573

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 488 2314 203 349 356 353 394 473 471

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... -29 229 230 371 378 375 403 485 482

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 26, -45 1 284 289 287 334 401 399

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 3 21 85 121 123 122 140 169 168

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. 55 33 190 227 231 229 261 314 313

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 40 91 44 64 65 65 68 82 82

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 28 36 68 259 264 262 282 339 337

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 3 8 66 135 138 137 186 224 223

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 13 78 2 4 4 4 5 6 6

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 8 4 31 49 50 49 58 69 69

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 9 38 188 258 263 261 282 340 338

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 21 79 169 253 258 256 305 367 365

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 35 58 159 229 234 232 259 312 310

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 81 135 248 351 358 355 396 476 474

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 128 123 238 330 336 334 370 445 442

114. Water transportation............................................................... 10 20 31 51 52 51 58 69 69

115. Air transportation..................................................................... 1 3 9 14 15 14 17 20 20

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 3 10 3 5 5 5 6 7 7

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

79

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-7. Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

123. Wholesale trade..................................................................... 428 588 999 1441 1470 1457 1615 1943 1932

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 0 0 2 4 4 4 4 4 4

126. Banking.................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

128. Insurance................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

137. Automobile repair................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 9 -69 -164 8 8 8 31 37 37

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

143. Educational services............................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

145. Post office............................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c....................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 29 -124 4 8 9 8 7 9 9

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... 143 -99 204 238 243 241 266 320 318

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

153. Government industry .............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. -251 -2127 -7591 -11519 -7000 -6941 -12897 -10246 -10189

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

80

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-8. Net exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 7258 3542 -3406 36891 30656 23994 43138 28438 3363

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 12 15 15 36 38 36 42 47 42

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... -281 -283 -163 -184 -225 -231 -216 -305 -339

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 464 402 389 447 477 455 470 529 473

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 1973 1836 2415 5569 5953 5680 6566 7425 6665

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 553 604 1329 3827 4036 3819 4652 5138 4480

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. -689 -797 -1047 -1160 -1338 -1335 -1448 -1860 -1910

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 12 11 18 40 43 41 48 53 47

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... -473 -587 -517 -541 -630 -633 -567 -746 -779

9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 6 -16 -66 -97 -113 -113 -111 -145 -151

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... -468 -391 -316 -338 -388 -386 -368 -529 -540

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 565 506 495 2684 2872 2742 3420 3872 3482

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... -1628 -1483 -2762 -4975 -5665 -5613 -4777 -6020 -6067

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... -103 -64 -89 -84 -107 -112 -121 -175 -197

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... -35 38 -16 46 39 31 49 33 5

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 2 4 6 14 15 14 16 18 17

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 261 211 233 282 293 275 339 365 307

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 9 17 11 25 27 26 30 34 30

18. Meat products ......................................................................... -530 -818 -928 -789 -988 -1029 -697 -1074 -1272

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 188 7 0 137 127 109 163 141 80

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... -19 -128 -225 -122 -179 -199 -184 -315 -398

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 448 506 545 937 994 944 1201 1343 1189

22. Bakery products...................................................................... -9 -27 -33 -45 -52 -53 -51 -69 -73

23. Sugar........................................................................................ -1163 -1072 -991 -856 -976 -968 -942 -1121 -1132

24. Confectionery products........................................................... -63 -77 -94 -118 -140 -142 -138 -187 -202

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ -484 -732 -881 -1350 -1542 -1531 -1581 -2004 -2031

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 32 24 70 268 285 271 345 386 342

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................. 502 413 542 949 969 898 1246 1311 1072

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 579 671 767 995 1058 1006 1117 1249 1106

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. -146 -348 -464 -512 -652 -685 -624 -936 -1088

30. Floor covering mills ................................................................. -53 -43 -65 -74 -90 -92 -88 -122 -134

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... -505 -399 -365 -367 -442 -451 -543 -738 -795

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 4 3 -153 -287 -332 -331 -338 -434 -446

33. Apparel..................................................................................... -430 -863 -2225 -4080 -4683 -4661 -4818 -6150 -6277

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. 3 9 -31 -17 -32 -38 -85 -135 -162

35. Logging..................................................................................... 86 240 375 955 1019 970 1125 1267 1131

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... -611 -676 -973 -1619 -1876 -1877 -1757 -2612 -2700

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... -396 -484 -624 -607 -711 -716 -751 -990 -1040

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. -4 0 -1 1 1 1 1 0 -1

39. Household furniture................................................................. -116 -122 -183 -298 -344 -344 -401 -517 -532

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. -25 -104 -100 -135 -158 -159 -159 -209 -220

41. Paper products........................................................................ -823 -982 -828 -1430 -1720 -1757 -1699 -2328 -2526

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 15 24 26 42 44 42 49 54 47

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 3 -1 -8 -15 -17 -17 -18 -23 -24

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 157 137 107 251 251 229 263 260 194

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 13 14 35 53 51 45 61 56 37

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ 556 654 556 2050 2082 1922 2468 2565 2059

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 105 132 149 639 658 613 890 957 805

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 238 139 231 535 554 519 639 684 573

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 367 425 454 1084 1140 1077 1276 1401 1213

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 87 31 -14 345 348 319 482 498 397

51. Drugs........................................................................................ 208 184 270 980 1016 951 1237 1331 1122

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 85 101 121 310 327 309 367 404 352

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 41 55 67 90 96 92 102 115 103

54. Petroleum refining and related products ............................... -229 -548 -2161 -874 -1048 -1068 -891 -1219 -1322

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 55 -39 -337 -799 -921 -919 -925 -1196 -1236

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 25 -60 -257 -438 -513 -516 -528 -694 -727

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 59 60 21 374 344 295 658 619 422

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... -18 -59 -86 -121 -146 -149 -144 -200 -219

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... -184 -430 -1028 -1525 -1741 -1727 -1599 -2021 -2044

60. Glass ........................................................................................ -12 -37 -129 -233 -285 -294 -275 -390 -435

See footnotes at end of table.

81

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-8. Net exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. -18 -15 -81 -135 -155 -155 -163 -209 -215

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... -13 -3 -34 -50 -61 -63 -64 -155 -165

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. -102 -186 -236 -375 -430 -428 -444 -566 -577

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 18 -15 -30 -37 -61 -71 -39 -90 -130

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products................................ -460 -1610 -2813 -4252 -4898 -4884 -6371 -8140 -8313

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 45 68 115 220 229 214 222 238 199

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... -31 -718 -166 -185 -245 -261 -236 -373 -448

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ -81 -94 -346 -361 -449 -466 -423 -616 -701

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... -595 -1038 -1264 -2534 -2907 -2893 -3113 -3963 -4033

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 25 11 10 22 22 20 28 28 21

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures............................... 44 24 -1 50 46 40 59 -49 -72

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 271 243 244 315 328 308 352 380 321

73. Screw machine products........................................................ -19 -41 -92 -164 -194 -196 -198 -265 -281

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 20 212 413 1062 1129 1074 1280 1436 1276

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 40 7 -100 -8 -41 -58 -16 -89 -156

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 78 80 -166 238 207 169 186 93 -43

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 400 374 461 1145 1192 1118 1287 1378 1153

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 168 99 14 566 343 298 734 186 31

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 1374 1483 1791 4482 4769 4537 5528 6198 5506

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 121 132 70 234 235 215 255 253 189

81. Metalworking machinery ......................................................... 516 165 285 869 898 839 1020 1085 901

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 646 468 264 120 35 -23 -32 -243 -439

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 464 460 343 500 447 374 447 303 56

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 59 83 72 152 162 155 184 207 184

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 212 417 977 6623 7018 6659 9897 11049 9764

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 21 42 -51 -36 -62 -74 -157 -244 -291

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 252 385 451 760 797 751 761 810 674

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 169 136 94 154 120 87 102 5 -115

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ 190 230 193 360 362 331 425 429 329

90. Household appliances............................................................. 61 -18 -289 -755 -880 -883 -1013 -1324 -1380

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 32 83 65 6 -18 -32 1 -50 -100

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ -147 -500 -1924 -4668 -5356 -5330 -6802 -8664 -8822

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 17 10 -16 65 51 38 111 82 27

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 267 324 316 686 686 626 675 643 448

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 128 179 436 3224 3363 3159 4198 4489 3751

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................. 34 60 -19 -44 -97 -123 -176 -325 -428

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 1134 -611 -4336 -8321 -10029 -10248 -7074 -10202 -11527

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 1100 1743 2483 7580 8251 7833 9640 11247 9919

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 21 -7 18 92 75 57 91 50 -12

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 179 151 148 200 207 194 157 156 116

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ -119 -212 -1105 -1790 -2040 -2022 -1981 -2499 -2521

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. 8 -23 -67 -46 -65 -72 -57 -100 -126

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 387 466 454 1024 1076 1016 1159 1263 1083

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 86 92 143 302 311 289 318 329 263

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ -34 -78 -151 -297 -354 -360 -393 -534 -576

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 63 120 192 852 847 771 1125 1107 817

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... -114 -206 -275 -267 -310 -311 -353 -461 -481

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... -192 -268 -338 -526 -623 -631 -643 -862 -918

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. -149 -271 -448 -1141 -1330 -1335 -1408 -1845 -1929

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c................................................. -76 -207 -309 -376 -461 -475 -543 -754 -828

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 758 866 1085 1436 1530 1457 1560 1754 1563

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 762 755 887 2020 2161 2063 2815 3188 2867

114. Water transportation............................................................... 1887 1821 1690 3130 3332 3172 3701 4156 3700

115. Air transportation.................................................................... -164 -11 128 1667 1686 1551 2591 2728 2232

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 40 62 56 181 193 185 240 272 245

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 170 38 215 292 312 298 380 431 387

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 52 150 389 1332 1425 1361 1823 2064 1856

120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 15 10 -29 -40 -52 -56 -60 -90 -105

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized for FRASER 

82

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-8. Met exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ -119 -114 -237 -589 -679 -678 -750 -962 -986

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 4 6 11 20 21 20 23 27 24

123. Wholesale trade..................................................................... 3799 5284 6973 14276 15670 15197 17946 21383 20244

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 34 67 119 272 291 278 321 364 327

126. Banking.................................................................................... 2 7 8 31 33 31 41 46 42

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 12 11 11 26 27 26 32 36 32

128. Insurance................................................................................. -26 -97 71 160 154 136 181 166 107

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 588 695 2035 3275 3504 3345 3777 4278 3847

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 0 3 4 7 7 7 8 9 8

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 44 121 399 1490 1594 1522 1892 2142 1926

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 19 31 31 100 106 101 122 136 120

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 298 447 400 984 1053 1005 1143 1295 1164

137. Automobile repair.................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 493 390 426 933 998 952 1064 1203 1079

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

143. Educational services............................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 26 25 23 36 35 32 36 35 25

145. Post office............................................................................... 44 25 21 18 19 18 20 23 21

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 95 109 118 263 281 268 310 351 316

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... -11111 -13680 -15162 -21407 -24475 -24307 -28891 -36342 -36904

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... -250 -406 -210 -426 -647 -733 -1769 -2551 -2883

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 1 10 4 9 9 9 11 13 11

153. Government industry .............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 5067 8885 10646 21981 22818 21367 23555 24768 20222

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

83

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-9. Exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 42217 54249 72793 164909 176427 168432 203280 230224 207028

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 15 16 47 39 42 40 46 52 47

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 49 59 94 215 230 220 254 287 258

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 495 438 403 464 497 474 491 556 500

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 2025 1873 2465 5637 6030 5757 6652 7534 6775

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 1050 1291 1896 4675 5001 4775 5674 6426 5779

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 89 92 105 240 257 245 283 321 289

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................. 16 19 19 44 47 44 51 58 52

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 141 131 102 216 231 221 220 249 224

9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 25 33 17 32 34 32 41 46 42

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 7 12 15 46 50 47 57 64 58

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 569 510 496 2686 2874 2744 3422 3875 3485

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 1 1 1 3 4 3 5 5 5

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 50 100 90 162 173 165 172 195 175

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 62 124 79 195 209 200 226 256 230

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 2 4 6 14 15 14 16 18 17

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 292 335 314 408 437 417 488 553 497

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 9 17 11 25 27 26 30 34 30

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 448 348 569 1301 1392 1329 1536 1739 1564

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 274 133 187 428 458 437 505 572 514

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 289 295 339 574 614 586 655 742 667

21. Grain mill products ................................................................. 491 553 619 1053 1127 1076 1338 1516 1363

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 7 7 . 11 26 27 26 30 34 30

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 5 9 9 21 22 21 24 28 25

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 26 35 39 89 95 91 105 119 107

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 19 29 33 79 85 81 94 106 96

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 37 40 85 295 316 302 378 429 385

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................ 700 825 971 1614 1727 1648 2029 2297 2066

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 709 720 839 1100 1177 1124 1242 1407 1265

29. Fabric, yam, and thread mills................................................. 352 287 432 1003 1073 1024 1175 1331 1197

30. Floor covering m ills................................................................. 1 17 33 78 84 80 92 104 93

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 33 82 123 346 370 353 416 471 424

32. Hosiery and knit goods................................................. ......... 18 28 26 61 65 62 70 79 71

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 172 166 235 537 575 549 634 718 646

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ 42 82 103 183 195 186 213 241 217

35. Logging..................................................................................... 141 302 407 1005 1075 1027 1184 1341 1206

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 170 215 336 468 501 478 557 631 567

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 45 60 106 288 308 294 345 390 351

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 3 4 3 6 6 6 7 8 7

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 14 28 33 76 81 77 89 101 91

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 27 23 28 64 69 65 76 86 77

41. Paper products........................................................................ 579 721 957 1344 1438 1373 1465 1660 1492

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 29 28 33 52 55 53 60 67 61

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 244 247 276 501 536 511 557 631 567

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 26 47 91 140 150 143 164 185 167

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ 858 1233 1569 3664 3920 3742 4279 4846 4358

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 144 201 329 1007 1078 1029 1292 1464 1316

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 323 276 400 794 849 811 949 1075 967

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 386 473 576 1369 1465 1398 1620 1835 1650

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 144 128 188 659 705 673 856 969 872

51. Drugs........................................................................................ 276 319 539 1448 1549 1479 1783 2019 1816

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 104 132 167 382 409 390 451 510 459

53. Paints and.allied products...................................................... 42 56 69 93 99 95 105 119 107

54. Petroleum refining and related products............................... 826 761 712 771 825 788 759 860 773

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 91 75 91 158 169 162 246 278 250

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 142 121 153 199 213 203 228 258 232

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 107 160 341 1186 1269 1211 1646 1864 1676

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 69 60 71 123 132 126 143 162 145

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 26 24 36 56 59 57 54 62 55

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 143 186 206 289 309 295 339 384 346

See footnotes at end of table.

84

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-9. Exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Actual Projected

Sector

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 6 14 13 30 32 30 35 40 36

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 30 35 40 66 70 67 71 80 72

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 27 28 36 46 50 47 51 58 52

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 115 146 167 269 288 275 322 364 328

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 652 555 625 809 866 826 887 1004 903

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 68 115 175 313 335 320 332 376 338

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 412 290 306 492 527 503 590 668 601

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... 158 246 241 551 590 563 650 737 662

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 180 309 268 313 335 320 323 366 329

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 37 20 26 47 51 48 57 65 58

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 51 58 68 156 166 159 184 208 187

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 295 291 324 439 470 448 500 567 510

73. Screw machine products........................................................ 43 73 81 105 113 108 119 134 121

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 75 275 474 1157 1237 1181 1393 1577 1418

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 164 167 201 460 492 469 542 614 552

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 205 368 411 940 1005 960 1109 1256 1130

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 439 490 710 1624 1737 1658 1916 2170 1951

78. Farm machinery ...................................................................... 409 500 470 1075 1150 1098 1368 1437 1292

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 1409 1610 1968 4862 5201 4966 6021 6819 6132

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 136 164 198 453 484 462 534 605 544

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 608 572 582 1331 1424 1359 1571 1779 1600

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 831 974 1139 1480 1583 1511 1587 1797 1616

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 529 764 876 1774 1898 1812 2034 2304 2072

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 60 85 79 162 174 166 197 223 200

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 284 600 1525 7605 8137 7768 11151 12629 11357

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 76 134 135 309 330 315 364 413 371

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 255 403 528 1002 1072 1024 1163 1317 1184

88. Electric transmission equipment.................................. .......... 197 288 410 812 868 829 973 1102 991

89. Electrical industrial apparatus.................................................

90. Household appliances.....'................................................ .......

241 340 418 709 758 724 840 952 856

150 164 216 293 313 299 374 423 381

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 111 202 237 357 382 365 400 453 408

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 78 93 208 585 626 598 739 837 753

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 42 57 81 324 346 331 452 511 460

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 326 522 604 1381 1478 1411 1630 1846 1660

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 188 356 1008 4477 4790 4573 6284 7117 6400

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 110 200 301 688 736 703 815 923 830

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 1865 2352 4123 8043 8605 8215 10125 11467 10312

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 1229 2128 3045 8843 9461 9032 11514 13041 11727

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 35 66 189 432 462 441 510 578 520

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 181 160 174 294 315 301 329 372 335

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 2 5 7 20 21 20 24 27 24

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c.........................................:.... 13 26 79 181 193 185 213 242 217

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 424 543 573 1310 1402 1338 1546 1751 1575

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 99 120 209 478 511 488 564 639 574

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 24 40 74 231 247 236 304 344 309

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 164 284 575 1789 1914 1827 2432 2754 2477

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 6 13 14 86 92 87 128 145 130

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 118 144 226 350 375 358 402 455 410

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 69 91 257 453 485 463 561 635 571

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 67 159 204 467 499 476 551 624 561

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 802 896 1142 1525 1631 1557 1665 1885 1695

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 762 755 887 2020 2161 2063 2815 3188 2867

114. Water transportation............................................................... 1972 1932 1838 3360 3594 3431 3975 4502 4048

115. Air transportation..................................................................... 313 790 1075 3085 3300 3151 4207 4765 4285

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 40 62 56 181 193 185 240 272 245

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 170 38 215 292 312 298 380 431 387

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 52 150 389 1332 1425 1361 1823 2064 1856

120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 24 29 38 99 106 101 117 132 119

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized for FRASER 

85

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-9. Exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

121. Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................ 12 53 110 131 140 134 135 153 137

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 4 6 11 20 21 20 23 27 24

123. Wholesale trade..................................................................... 2280 2948 3980 8515 9109 8696 10521 12029 10817

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 34 67 119 272 291 278 321 364 327

126. Banking.................................................................................... 2 7 8 31 33 31 41 46 42

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 12 11 11 26 27 26 32 36 32

128. Insurance................................................................................. 47 25 236 416 446 425 485 549 493

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 588 695 2035 3275 3504 3345 3777 4278 3847

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 0 3 4 7 7 7 8 9 8

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 44 122 401 1493 1598 1525 1896 2147 1931

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 25 39 40 116 124 119 141 160 144

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 298 447 400 984 1053 1005 1143 1295 1164

137. Automobile repair................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 494 391 438 948 1014 968 1082 1226 1102

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

143. Educational services............................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 38 45 53 73 78 75 82 93 83

145. Post office............................................................................... 44 25 21 18 19 18 20 23 21

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c.......................................................■. 95 109 118 263 281 268 310 351 316

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c....................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 388 486 681 1441 1542 1472 2260 2559 2301

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... 356 722 919 2359 2524 2410 2531 2866 2577

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 1 10 4 9 9 9 11 13 11

153. Government industry .............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 6547 11154 14167 32118 34361 32804 38543 43652 39254

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

86

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-10. Imports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... -34959 -50707 -76199 -128018 -145771 -144438 -160142 -201786 -203365

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... -3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... -330 -342 -257 -399 -455 -451 -470 -592 -597

3. Cotton....................................................................................... -31 -36 -14 . -17 -19 -19 -21 -27 -27

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... -52 -37 -50 -68 -77 -76 -86 -108 -109

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... -497 -687 -567 -847 -965 -956 -1022 -1288 -1298

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. -778 -889 -1152 -1400 -1595 -1580 -1731 -2181 -2198

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. -4 -7 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................................................ -614 -719 -619 -757 -862 -854 -787 -995 -1003

9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... -19 -48 -83 -129 -147 -146 -152 -191 -193

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... -475 -403 -331 -384 -438 -434 -425 -593 -598

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. -4 -4 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... -1629 -1484 -2763 -4978 -5669 -5617 -4782 -6025 -6072

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... -153 -164 -179 -246 -280 -277 -293 -369 -372

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... -97 -85 -96 -150 -170 -169 -177 -223 -225

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. -31 -124 -81 -126 -143 -142 -150 -189 -190

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18. Meat products ......................................................................... -978 -1167 -1496 -2090 -2380 -2358 -2233 -2813 -2835

19. Dairy products......................................................................... -85 -126 -187 -291 -331 -328 -342 -431 -434

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... -308 -423 -564 -696 -793 -786 -839 -1056 -1065

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. -42 -47 -75 -117 -133 -132 -137 -173 -174

22. Bakery products...................................................................... -16 -33 -44 -70 -80 -79 -81 -102 -103

23. Sugar........................................................................................ -1169 -1081 -1000 -876 -998 -989 -966 -1148 -1157

24. Confectionery products........................................................... -89 -113 -133 -207 -235 -233 -243 -307 -309

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ -503 -761 -913 -1429 -1627 -1612 -1675 -2110 -2127

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... -5 -16 -15 -27 -31 -30 -34 -43 -43

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................. -198 -412 -428 -665 -758 -751 -783 -986 -994

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... -130 -50 -71 -105 -119 -118 -125 -158 -159

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills.................................................. -498 -635 -895 -1515 -1725 -1709 -1799 -2266 -2284

30. Floor covering m ills................................................................. -54 -60 -98 -152 -174 -172 -179 -226 -228

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... -538 -481 -488 -713 -811 -804 -959 -1209 -1218

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... -14 -24 -178 -349 -397 -393 -408 -514 -518

33. Apparel..................................................................................... -601 -1029 -2460 -4618 -5258 -5210 -5452 -6869 -6923

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. -39 -73 -134 -199 -227 -225 -298 -376 -379

35. Logging..................................................................................... -55 -63 -32 -50 -57 -56 -59 -74 -75

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... -781 -891 -1310 -2087 -2377 -2355 -2314 -3242 -3267

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... -441 -544 -730 -896 -1020 -1010 -1095 -1380 -1391

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. -7 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 -6 -7 -7

39. Household furniture ................................................................. -130 -150 -216 -373 -425 -421 -491 -618 -623

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. -52 -127 -128 -199 -227 -224 -234 -295 -297

41. Paper products........................................................................ -1402 -1703 -1785 -2774 -3158 -3130 -3165 -3987 -4018

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. -15 -3 -6 -9 -11 -11 -11 -14 -14

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ -2 -5 -12 -19 -21 -21 -22 -28 -28

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ -87 -111 -169 -250 -285 -282 -295 -371 -374

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... -13 -33 -56 -87 -99 -98 -102 -129 -130

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ -302 -579 -1013 -1613 -1837 -1820 -1811 -2281 -2299

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. -39 -69 -181 -369 -420 -416 -403 -507 -511

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... -85 -137 -170 -259 -295 -292 -310 -391 -394

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... -19 -48 -122 -285 -325 -322 -344 -434 -437

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... -57 -97 -202 -314 -357 -354 -374 -471 -475

51. Drugs........................................................................................ -69 -136 -269 -468 -533 -528 -546 -688 -693

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. -19 -31 -46 -72 -81 -81 -84 -106 -107

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4

54. Petroleum refining and related products............................... -1056 -1309 -2873 -1645 -1873 -1856 -1650 -2078 -2095

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. -36 -114 -428 -957 -1090 -1080 -1170 -1474 -1486

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. -116 -181 -410 -637 -726 -719 -755 -952 -959

57. Plastic products....................................................................... -48 -100 -321 -812 -925 -916 -988 -1245 -1255

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... -87 -119 -157 -244 -278 -275 -287 -362 -365

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... -210 -454 -1064 -1581 -1800 -1784 -1653 -2083 -2099

60. Glass ........................................................................................ -155 -223 -336 -522 -595 -589 -615 -774 -780

See footnotes at end of table.

87

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-10. Imports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. -24 -29 -94 -164 -187 -185 -198 -249 -251

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... -43 -39 -74 -115 -131 -130 -135 -235 -237

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. -128 -214 -271 -421 -480 -475 -496 -624 -629

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ -97 -161 -197 -306 -349 -345 -360 -454 -458

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... -1112 -2165 -3437 -5062 -5764 -5711 -7258 -9144 -9216

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... -23 -48 -60 -93 -106 -105 -110 -138 -139

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... -443 -1008 -472 -677 -771 -764 -826 -1041 -1049

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................ -239 -340 -587 -912 -1039 -1029 -1074 -1353 -1363

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... -775 -1347 -1533 -2847 -3242 -3212 -3436 -4329 -4363

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... -12 -9 -16 -25 -28 -28 -29 -37 -37

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. -7 -34 -68 -106 -120 -119 -124 -257 -259

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... -24 -48 -80 -124 -142 -140 -148 -187 -188

73. Screw machine products........................................................ -62 -114 -173 -269 -306 -303 -317 -399 -402

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... -55 -63 -61 -95 -108 -107 -112 -142 -143

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. -124 -160 -301 -468 -533 -528 -558 -703 -708

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. -128 -288 -577 -701 -799 -791 -924 -1164 -1173

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... -39 -116 -248 -479 -545 -541 -629 -792 -798

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... -241 -401 -456 -509 -807 -800 -634 -1251 -1261

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... -35 -127 -177 -379 -432 -428 -494 -622 -627

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. -15 -32 -128 -219 -249 -247 -280 -352 -355

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... -91 -407 -297 -462 -526 -521 -551 -694 -699

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... -184 -507 -875 -1360 -1548 -1534 -1619 -2039 -2055

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. -65 -304 -534 -1275 -1452 -1438 -1588 -2001 -2016

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. -1 -3 -7 -10 -11 -11 -12 -16 -16

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... -72 -183 -548 -982 -1119 -1108 -1254 -1581 -1593

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ -55 -93 -186 -345 -392 -389 -522 -657 -662

87. Service industry machines................................................... -3 -18 -77 -242 -276 -273 -402 -507 -510

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. -28 -151 -316 -657 -748 -742 -871 -1097 -1106

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ -51 -110 -224 -348 -396 -393 -415 -523 -527

90. Household appliances............................................................. -89 -182 -505 -1048 -1193 -1182 -1387 -1747 -1761

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... -79 -120 -172 -352 -401 -397 -400 -503 -507

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ -225 -594 -2132 -5253 -5982 -5927 -7541 -9501 -9575

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... -25 -47 -97 -259 -295 -292 -341 -429 -433

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... -59 -197 -288 -695 -792 -784 -955 -1203 -1212

95. Electronic components ........................................................... -61 -178 -572 -1253 -1427 -1414 -2086 -2628 -2649

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. -75 -140 -321 -732 -834 -826 -991 -1248 -1258

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... -731 -2963 -8459 -16364 -18634 -18463 -17199 -21670 -21839

98. Aircraft..................................................................................... -129 -384 -562 -1263 -1210 -1199 -1874 -1794 -1808

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... -14 -73 -171 -341 -388 -384 -419 -528 -532

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. -2 -9 -26 -95 -108 -107 -172 -217 -218

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ -121 -217 -1112 -1810 -2061 -2042 -2005 -2526 -2545

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. -6 -49 -146 -227 -258 -256 -271 -341 -344

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... -37 -77 -119 -286 -326 -323 -387 -488 -492

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. -13 -28 -66 -176 -201 -199 -246 -310 -312

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ -58 -118 -225 -528 -601 -596 -697 -878 -885

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. -101 -164 -383 -937 -1067 -1057 -1307 -1647 -1660

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... -120 -219 -289 -353 -402 -398 -481 -606 -611

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... -310 -412 -564 -876 -998 -989 -1045 -1317 -1328

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. -218 -363 -705 -1593 -1814 -1798 -1969 -2480 -2500

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. -143 -366 -513 -843 -960 -951 -1093 -1378 -1388

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... -44 -29 -57 -89 -101 -100 -104 -132 -133

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

114. Water transportation............................................................... -85 -110 -148 -230 -262 -260 -274 -346 -348

115. Air transportation.................................................................... -477 -801 -947 -1418 -1615 -1600 -1617 -2037 -2053

116. Pipeline transportation.................................................... ....... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

118. Radio and television broadpasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ -9 -19 -67 -139 -158 -157 -176 -222 -224

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized 

88

for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-10. Imports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................. -131 -168 -347 -719 -819 -812 -884 -1114 -1123

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

123. Wholesale trade ..................................................................... 1520 2336 2993 5762 6561 6501 7425 9354 9427

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

126. Banking.................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

128. Insurance................................................................................. -73 -122 -165 -256 -292 -289 -304 -383 -386

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4

135. Advertising .............................................................................. -6 -8 -10 -16 -18 -18 -19 -24 -24

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

137. Automobile repair.................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... -1 -1 -12 -15 -17 -17 -18 -23 -23

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

143. Educational services............................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... -13 -20 -30 -38 -43 -43 -46 -58 -58

145. Post office............................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... -11499 -14166 -15843 -22848 -26016 -25778 -31151 -38901 -39205

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... -606 -1128 -1130 -2785 -3172 -3143 -4300 -5418 -5460

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

153. Government industry .............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... -1480 -2268 -3521 -10137 -11543 -11437 -14989 -18884 -19032

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

89

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
TabUe A -11. G overnm ent purchases, selected historical and pro jected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 197379 247969 252817 318653 318297 316617 338332 339410 340667

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 44 55 72 62 63 63 68 71 71

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 5 7 4 9 9 9 9 9 9

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 492 -874 22 337 328 313 343 334 318

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... -541 -535 -799 -415 -404 -384 -585 -569 -541

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... -31 437 13 402 405 398 470 483 474

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. -749 -809 -525 -483 -470 -448 -561 -546 -519

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 49 76 79 64 63 63 67 68 68

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 7 -70 -25 -15 -15 -15 -23 -22 -23

9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 385 156 -7 0 0 0 0 0 0

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 85 99 70 87 85 85 89 86 88

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 0 0 0 97 94 90 165 161 153

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 462 589 586 572 575 574 573 604 605

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 36 41 47 38 38 38 31 34 34

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 7218 7878 9422 10096 10164 10109 10971 11393 11439

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 1349 4547 2108 1804 1761 1769 1990 1873 1976

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 4437 5130 3652 4725 4595 4545 4788 4537 4656

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 356 478 853 837 857 855 939 993 992

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 354 911 652 589 606 601 661 704 698

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 242 297 415 406 426 426 452 492 491

21. Grain mill products ................................................................. 55 123 104 133 133 131 157 160 158

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 110 13.1 160 153 164 163 182 202 202

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 8 10 19 13 14 14 15 16 16

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 53 57 70 61 67 67 68 76 76

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ -5 3 -7 -9 -9 -9 -7 -8 -8

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 44 52 56 53 59 59 66 74 73

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................ 134 147 222 221 237 235 240 267 267

28. Tobacco manufacturing ......................................................... 1 2 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 75 125 83 158 160 160 173 179 182

30. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 41 61 82 65 64 64 74 74 75

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 22 18 14 19 20 20 26 27 27

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 166 227 215 374 462 460 407 506 511

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ 99 392 195 213 211 211 249 244 252

35. Logging.................................................................................... 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 290 270 112 98 98 98 101 104 105

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 396 700 423 381 382 381 378 390 391

38. Wooden containers................................................................. 6 33 13 16 16 16 19 18 18

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 65 148 108 151 149 146 168 167 165

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household .............................. 363 594 622 828 826 821 920 947 945

41. Paper products........................................................................ 362 556 679 813 822 815 825 856 853

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 35 70 58 60 63 63 62 66 66

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 4 8 3 5 5 5 5 5 5

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 673 973 1033 1137 1112 1111 1309 1319 1321

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 546 782 1189 1376 1374 „ 1365 i> 1461 1505 1504

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ 1169 1049 937 1395 1364 1355 1769 1706 1748

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 91 114 107 147 148 147 146 152 151

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 279 950 429 684 669 669 714 680 708

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 19 -9 21 25 24 24 23 21 23

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 17 31 15 55 53 54 62 58 61

51. Drugs....................................................................................... 379 654 1040 2281 2291 2287 2679 2803 2807

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 158 281 223 309 309 307 345 352 352

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 143 150 171 190 188 187 205 207 208

54. Petroleum refining and related products ............................... 1916 2578 2599 2588 3197 3193 2677 3408 3475

55. Tires and inner tubes .............................................................. 156 239 130 199 210 208 212 228 228

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 108 337 267 333 353 352 353 375 383

57. Plastic products................................... .rz................................ 168 257 244 343 347 345 373 383 387

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 1 4 1 2 2 2 3 3 3

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 10 25 18 19 21 21 22 24 25

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 82 157 184 205 208 207 226 235 236

See footnotes at end of table.

90

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
T able A -11. G overnm en t purchases, selected historical and p ro jected years, 1963 to 1990— G ontinued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 1761 2132 2245 1908 1923 1918 1839 1933 1934

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 172 166 134 132 132 131 137 141 142

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 46 55 48 57 59 58 63 65 65

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 332 393 333 333 336 335 355 363 367

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 1064 840 447 437 439 438 433 440 449

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 155 202 520 498 499 499 477 494 500

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 590 705 402 418 414 409 439 439 440

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... 30 50 26 39 38 38 45 42 44

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... -234 -196 -38 -22 -21 -22 -35 -31 -37

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 14 23 18 16 16 16 17 17 17

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 180 191 154 134 136 136 150 154 155

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 2413 3199 2797 3393 3392 3379 3565 3670 3685

73. Screw machine products........................................................ 51 191 84 139 135 133 170 163 165

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 41 44 36 43 15 14 54 24 24

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 117. 255 250 303 303 302 363 363 369

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 367 661 638 689 672 669 687 676 688

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 314 621 413 553 541 535 615 596 607

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 46 75 58 88 93 93 98 104 105

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 461 635 292 431 428 427 463 463 473

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 145 205 156 180 179 178 196 194 197

81. Metalworking machinery ......................................................... 163 242 160 251 245 242 287 278 282

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 37 78 81 137 133 132 159 152 156

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 434 454 304 411 407 404 471 458 469

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 177 290 237 257 262 262 291 302 306

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 497 486 598 1748 1702 1679 2498 2390 2441

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 199 360 379 531 522 509 625 620 608

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 273 425 493 656 659 659 759 778 786

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 459 602 550 931 916 916 1180 1141 1183

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................. 311 546 313 477 467 465 653 629 649

90. Household appliances............................................................. 47 75 73 103 106 106 116 122 123

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 486 556 493 467 470 467 503 515 517

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 98 154 124 206 201 198 260 253 253

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 173 250 205 306 297 297 341 322 334

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 5839 6759 5414 7877 7674 7671 8847 8359 8729

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 388 696 646 1167 1143 1139 1319 1255 1304

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 209 331 173 393 391 390 478 470 483

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 2162 2581 1788 3241 3296 3293 3775 3835 3925

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 11481 10475 8050 13881 12911 12946 15507 13908 14634

99. Ship and boat building and repair .......................................... 1485 1870 1622 2203 2146 2140 2679 2529 2632

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 65 80 107 86 86 86 93 98 98

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 6 9 19 7 13 13 6 12 12

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. 10 13 21 24 25 25 26 28 28

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 665 744 687 1366 1344 1342 1568 1519 1570

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 144 275 232 491 491 487 565 575 577

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 40 79 124 205 200 194 283 275 270

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 312 565 610 852 849 845 929 929 944

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 9 117 37 62 60 60 79 74 78

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 5 12 -3 9 10 11 18 19 20

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 77 96 180 169 169 169 180 187 188

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 209 327 453 513 485 480 562 540 540

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 638 897 631 711 704 702 730 724 739

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 435 657 726 650 642 642 684 694 696

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 1798 2813 2325 2465 2452 2445 2671 2655 2713

114. Water transportation............................................................... 391 881 610 920 900 904 1054 1001 1053

115. Air transportation.................................................................... 690 1541 1140 1693 1670 1666 1875 1825 1881

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 25 37 36 46 47 47 49 49 50

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 859 1283 2082 3392 3410 3399 3888 3931 4004

120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 1284 1879 2322 2345 2362 2364 2453 2518 2552

See footnotes at end of table.

91

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Talbte A -11. Government purchases, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to ISiO ^-Continyed

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 353 367 687 725 726 725 768 787 790

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 18 85 104 148 151 151 162 158 163

123. Wholesale trade..................................................................... 3459 4441 3968 4677 4726 4710 5118 5228 5293

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... -1155 -1224 -1323 -1328 -1254 -1256 -1597 -1593 -1568

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 546 726 618 553 565 562 555 600 593

126. Banking................................................ ................................... 1780 1787 2514 3575 3584 3550 3584 3758 3720

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 152 178 159 141 171 171 127 173 173

128. Insurance................................................................................. 445 487 514 608 613 613 642 670 672

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 937 1274 2079 2610 2630 2613 2709 2830 2821

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 723 843 701 1161 1178 1173 1133 1153 1179

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 327 340 618 639 634 633 697 716 718

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 4005 4727 5139 8732 8695 8660 9983 9983 10160

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 288 323 492 524 524 525 543 569 571

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 2924 2785 4149 5023 5056 5038 5414 5588 5610

137. Automobile repair.................................................................... 285 454 601 603 627 625 628 670 674

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 108 163 128 202 200 200 229 222 230

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... -435 -391 -429 -361 -351 -349 -368 -378 -368

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 368 691 1630 2567 2580 2576 2690 2818 2823

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 701 1428 2645 4500 4521 4517 4878 5108 5123

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 546 1206 3344 4616 4652 4646 5149 5446 5441

143. Educational services............................................................... 1872 2347 1662 2031 2043 1985 2189 2183 2158

144. Nonprofit organizations.......................................................... 7 11 10 22 22 22 24 25 25

145. Post office............................................................................... 409 718 983 1198 1201 1190 1268 1295 1299

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 4 13 3 6 6 6 8 8 8

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 62 52 59 64 67 67 63 68 68

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 2593 4029 3508 4045 3934 3926 3404 3211 3340

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... 1065 1022 1400 1303 1284 1295 1637 1595 1687

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 12850 16933 13577 14356 14518 14449 14531 15255 15275

153. Government industry .............................................................. 100232 121953 131948 161167 161167 159998 167585 167585 165869

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... -1172 -501 -203 -785 -764 -728 -1167 -1137 -1083

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

92

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-12. Federal Government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 101953 124885 102125 128416 126218 124537 139910 134910 136166

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 3 4 2 3 3 3 2 2 2

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 4 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 3

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 492 -874 22 337 328 313 343 334 318

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... -551 -549 -820 -427 -415 -396 -596 -581 -554

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... -146 312 -179 151 147 140 207 201 192

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. -752 -813 -533 -491 -478 -456 -570 -556 -529

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............................. 27 21 16 19 19 19 19 18 19

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 7 -70 -25 -15 -15 -15 -23 -22 -23

9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 385 156 -7 0 0 0 0 0 0

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 68 71 47 61 59 59 61 58 60

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 0 0 0 97 94 90 165 161 153

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 131 125 61 70 68 66 71 68 68

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -4 -4

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 2235 2396 2079 3043 2960 2905 3533 3364 3409

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 1340 4537 2090 1796 1745 1753 1983 1859 1962

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 4437 5130 3652 4725 4595 4545 4788 4537 4656

18. Meat products......................................................................... 17 65 28 47 46 44 57 55 53

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 105 629 192 120 117 111 143 139 133

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 9 23 11 18 17 16 21 21 20

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 17 79 39 72 70 68 91 88 86

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 5 9 4 7 7 7 8 8 8

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 3 5 2 4 4 4 6 6 6

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................ 39 32 32 38 38 36 30 29 29

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 41 82 25 46 44 44 57 53 56

30. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 5 11 13 21 21 21 26 25 26

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 10 15 8 14 14 13 21 20 20

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 101 162 131 201 196 193 231 220 225

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ 83 369 145 147 142 142 178 168 175

35. Logging..................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 53 28 17 19 18 18 24 22 23

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 49 93 84 102 100 98 107 102 103

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 6 33 13 16 16 16 19 18 18

39. Household furniture................................................................. 28 90 65 95 93 90 108 104 102

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household............................... 75 144 131 173 169 164 182 175 173

41. Paper products........................................................................ 127 217 142 203 197 191 227 218 215

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 14 42 19 22 22 21 21 20 20

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 0 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 107 62 38 78 76 75 99 94 96

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 243 377 349 390 380 371 410 393 393

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ 1080 948 701 1110 1079 1070 1449 1371 1413

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 19 31 16 29 28 27 37 36 35

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 203 858 332 626 608 608 655 616 644

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 18 -10 20 24 24 24 22 21 22

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 17 31 15 55 53 54 62 58 61

51. Drugs...................................................................................:.... 91 141 154 262 254 250 320 305 308

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations........................................•.... 44 91 49 97 94 92 122 116 117

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 52 -24 21 52 51 50 68 64 65

54. Petroleum refining and related products ............................... 1056 1420 905 988 1544 1541 997 1587 1654

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 71 126 70 99 96 94 107 103 103

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 17 228 144 204 198 197 217 205 212

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 37 87 71 132 128 127 150 143 1-46

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 0 4 1 2 2 2 3 3 3

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 6 21 8 12 12 12 16 15 15

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 21 31 36 48 46 45 55 52 53

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized for FRASER 

93

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Talbl® A -12. P©til®r@ll Government purefoases, total!, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 19©0=C®initoiniyed

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 335 276 202 235 229 224 264 252 253

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 5 6 13 25 25 24 33 31 32

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 2 4 11 16 16 16 20 19 19

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 75 76 56 102 99 98 129 122 126

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 618 464 139 186 181 181 195 184 192

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 11 89 91 118 114 115 118 110 116

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 152 118 166 227 220 215 250 239 240

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ 23 47 24 38 37 37 43 40 43

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... -234 -196 - -39 -22 -21 -22 -35 -31 -37

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 9 16 8 10 10 10 10 10 10

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 10 12 25 40 39 39 55 52 53

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 341 514 604 849 825 812 955 908 923

73. Screw machine products........................................................ 39 181 72 129 126 123 159 152 153

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 20 25 9 16 16 16 20 20 20

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware............................. 27 103 74 147 143 142 203 192 198

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.......................... ................... 94 278 230 367 357 354 386 365 377

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 262 547 327 458 445 439 516 490 501

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 15 36 14 26 26 25 39 37 38

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 267 445 140 217 211 210 250 235 245

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 101 134 85 123 120 119 141 134 137

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 134 203 119 205 199 196 238 227 230

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 29 62 65 120 117 116 141 133 138

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 349 390 222 357 347 344 419 397 408

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 78 143 59 90 87 87 102 96 100

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 453 412 509 1417 1378 1356 2147 2036 2087

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 104 203 190 324 315 302 400 387 375

87. Service industry machines................................................... 53 118 82 151 146 146 190 179 187

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................ 286 437 313 677 658 657 919 863 905

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ 255 488 237 374 364 361 544 513 533

90. Household appliances............................................................. 18 18 14 24 24 24 31 29 30

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 67 83 100 141 137 134 168 160 162

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 71 106 71 145 141 138 191 182 183

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 173 250 204 305 297 296 340 321 334

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 5724 6612 5260 7643 7430 7426 8542 8035 8405

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 374 673 625 1145 1113 1109 1298 1224 1272

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 169 282 125 264 256 255 347 327 341

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 1281 1523 644 1712 1664 1660 2181 2053 2143

98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 11479 10473 8046 13879 12907 12942 15506 13905 14631

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 1479 1863 1604 2194 2133 2127 2671 2517 2620

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 8 8 3 9 9 9 13 13 13

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. 4 4 3 10 10 10 14 14 14

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 519 561 499 1065 1036 1034 1237 1164 1215

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 75 164 105 191 186 182 242 230 233

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 28 56 101 177 172 166 252 244 238

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 185 363 280 441 429 426 518 490 505

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 3 112 29 55 53 53 71 67 70

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... -3 -2 -22 -4 -4 -4 3 2 3

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 5 11 5 11 11 11 16 16 16

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 86 173 103 189 184 180 239 229 229

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 309 545 323 435 423 421 456 431 445

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 36 43 39 52 50 50 55 52 54

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 922 1771 1147 1389 1351 1344 1621 1529 1587

114. Water transportation............................................................... 334 821 513 816 793 , 797 950 890 941

115. Air transportation.................................................................... 507 1231 827 1246 1211 1207 1418 1336 1391

116. Pipeline transportation...............................................;............ 15 23 16 26 25 25 29 28 29

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 409 647 858 1666 1620 1609 2106 1988 2061

120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 216 294 508 622 605 607 695 652 686

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized for FRASER 

94

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-12. Federal Government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 65 53 80 93 91 90 109 103 105

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 49 53 56 94 91 91 111 104 109

123. Wholesale trade..................................................................... 1819 2272 1367 1957 1903 1887 2242 2121 2186

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 290 310 368 575 559 557 685 646 671

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... -8 -56 11 5 5 3 -2 1 -6

126. Banking................................................................................... 733 680 756 734 715 681 832 811 773

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... -10 6 -20 -17 -16 -16 -12 -11 -11

128. Insurance................................................................................. 93 67 -3 44 42 42 79 75 77

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 356 528 445 597 581 564 649 625 616

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 616 887 609 810 788 783 837 791 817

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 36 -10 92 87 85 84 109 104 106

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 2570 2919 3015 4727 4597 4562 5595 5287 5464

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 12 8 18 30 30 30 31 30 31

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 939 1238 658 1195 1163 1145 1491 1419 1441

137. Automobile repair................................................................... 53 101 129 144 140 138 176 167 171

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 81 121 97 150 146 146 172 162 170

139. Amusements and recreation services.............................. :.... 76 98 47 63 62 64 67 60 70

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services............................................. 94 67 204 260 253 249 299 284 289

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 190 256 321 484 471 467 552 523 538

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 62 59 92 119 116 110 127 123 118

143. Educational services............................................................... 1846 2299 1669 1953 1900 1843 2131 2049 2024

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

145. Post office............................................................................... 206 432 424 546 531 520 595 568 572

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 4 13 3 6 6 6 8 8 8

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 31 13 17 26 25 24 24 23 23

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 2587 4021 3496 4039 3927 3918 3397 3202 3332

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... -120 -456 363 619 601 612 1001 923 1015

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 2977 2347 2164 3044 2962 2892 3588 3427 3447

153. Government industry.............................................................. 47515 55716 49329 48987 48987 47818 49785 49785 48068

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... -1172 -501 -203 -785 -764 -728 -1167 -1137 -1083

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment ............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add fa totals because of rounding.

Digitized 

95

for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-13. Federal Government purchases, defense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 80558 98238 73512, 92913 91214 92297 102903 98405 102772

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c................................................... 2 4 3 5 5 5 8 7 7

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. -1 7 -1 1 1 1 3 3 3

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............................. 25 19 12 15 15 15 15 14 15

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 17 -70 -25 -15 -15 -15 -23 -22 -23

9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 372 89 -8 1 1 1 -2 -2 -2

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 55 59 36 49 47 48 50 46 49

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 32 13 11 27 27 27 40 37 39

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -4 -4

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 1553 1330 981 1637 1591 1601 2056 1924 2039

16. Ordnance .................................... ............................................ 1302 4482 2068 1730 1681 1692 1912 1789 1896

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 3158 3004 2336 3233 3142 3162 3347 3133 3319

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 8 9 4 6 6 6 7 7 7

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 6 6 5 17 17 17 26 25 26

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................. 0 13 -5 10 10 10 12 12 12

28. Tobaccd manufacturing .......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 41 82 24 45 43 44 56 52 55

30. Floor covering m ills............. ................................................... 3 7 8 15 15 15 19 18 19

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 6 7 -1 4 4 4 10 10 10

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 54 105 82 133 129 130 155 145 154

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ 72 349 125 123 119 120 154 144 153

35. Logging.................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 12 10 10 12 12 12 19 17 18

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 16 33 42 61 59 59 64 60 63

38. Wooden containers................................................................. 6 26 9 10 10 10 12 12 12

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 12 30 15 27 27 27 33 31 33

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household .............................. 23 48 46 62 60 60 63 59 62

41. Paper products........................................................................ 52 89 33 59 57 57 73 68 72

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 11 33 10 12 12 12 10 10 10

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 53 36 16 49 47 48 69 65 68

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 270 225 148 167 163 164 184 172 182

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ 937 600 507 804 781 786 1072 1003 1063

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 4 6 6 8 8 8 9 9 9

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 147 763 285 550 534 538 573 537 568

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 18 -10 20 24 24 24 22 21 22

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 17 31 15 55 53 54 62 58 61

51. Drugs....................................................................................... 16 87 80 146 142 143 183 172 182

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 34 48 27 47 45 46 56 52 55

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 4 5 12 27 27 27 37 34 36

54. Petroleum refining and related products ............................... 823 1053 703 741 1303 1312 740 1’336 1416

55. Tires and inner tubes .............................................................. 59 82 37 50 48 49 51 47 50

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes............................... 9 211 120 164 159 160 171 160 170

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 31 69 42 90 88 88 104 98 103

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 5 17 6 7 7 7 10 9 9

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 11 13 18 24 23 23 29 27 29

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized for FRASER 

96

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Tabs© A-13. Federal Government purchases, detense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—-Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 59 38 77 113 110 111 133 124 132

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 1 1 8 17 17 17 23 22 23

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 1 2 3 6 6 6 7 7 7

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 73 57 34 72 70 70 95 89 94

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 420 450 105 154 150 151 170 159 169

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 7 85 88 112 109 110 112 105 111

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 109 29 63 102 99 99 117 110 116

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... 23 47 23 38 37 37 43 40 43

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... -29 -24 -76 -46 -44 -45 -74 -69 -73

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 9 16 8 10 10 10 10 10 10

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 5 6 18 30 29 29 42 39 42

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 82 247 310 494 480 483 587 550 582

73. Screw machine products........................................................ 31 121 41 73 71 71 90 84 89

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 15 18 4 8 8 8 11 10 11

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 10 59 37 99 96 97 152 142 151

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 47 228 152 268 261 262 291 272 288

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 215 450 191 293 284 286 344 322 341

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 13 29 9 18 18 18 29 28 29

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 230 414 114 182 176 178 211 198 209

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 87 99 52 84 81 82 97 91 96

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 93 135 66 117 114 115 146 137 145

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 13 39 44 91 89 89 109 102 109

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 305 298 160 255 248 249 296 277 294

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c..................................... ........... 71 127 46 73 71 72 86 80 85

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 332 221 248 828 805 810 1475 1381 1463

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 20 22 21 43 41 42 57 53 56

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 51 107 63 126 122 123 163 153 162

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 236 343 251 592 576 579 827 774 820

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ 225 408 169 278 270 272 438 410 434

90. Household appliances............................................................. 10 12 9 18 18 18 23 22 23

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 33 43 52 75 73 73 95 89 94

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 36 58 29 66 64 64 90 84 89

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 155 220 178 257 250 251 281 263 278

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 5155 5793 4427 6693 6504 6545 7515 7034 7451

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 329 555 456 922 896 902 1067 999 1058

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 136 240 92 210 204 205 290 271 287

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 1181 1236 455 1438 1398 1407 1874 1753 1858

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 9968 9434 7422 13012 12063 12138 14551 12974 13745

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 1343 1599 1408 1834 1783 1794 2223 2081 2204

100. Railroad equipment................................................................ 6 4 1 6 6 6 10 10 10

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. 1 2 1 6 6 6 10 10 10

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 392 461 368 903 878 883 1063 995 1054

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 38 112 44 97 95 95 134 125 133

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 15 20 29 47 46 46 63 59 63

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 108 300 206 327 318 320 382 357 378

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 1 111 26 52 50 51 68 64 67

108. Jewelry and silverware ............................................................ 3 2 3 8 8 8 11 10 11

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 5 7 3 7 7 7 10 10 10

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 54 76 41 82 80 80 107 100 106

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 210 404 245 335 326 328 350 328 347

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 19 33 29 42 40 41 45 42 44

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 675 1348 913 1089 1059 1065 1307 1224 1296

114. Water transportation............................................................... 323 820 505 802 780 784 935 875 927

115. Air transportation.................................................................... 389 1020 645 1025 996 1002 1193 1117 1183

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 13 18 12 20 19 20 22 21 22

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 349 443 607 1263 1228 1235 1682 1574 1668

120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 401 284 404 592 576 579 650 609 645

See footnotes at end of table.

97

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-13. Federal Government purchases, defense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 44 38 54 65 63 64 77 72 76

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 34 39 52 83 81 82 96 90 95

123. Wholesale trade..................................................................... 1458 1715 899 1428 1388 1396 1662 1556 1648

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 218 234 274 465 452 454 559 523 554

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... -91 -130 -32 -49 -47 -48 -65 -61 -64

126. Banking.................................................................................... 5 3 3 6 6 6 8 8 8

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

128. Insurance................................................................................. 42 25 12 36 35 36 55 51 54

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 108 159 154 195 190 191 208 194 206

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 417 634 462 622 604 608 638 597 633

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 15 12 51 55 53 54 71 66 70

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 2044 1877 2047 3518 3419 3441 4274 4000 4237

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 6 3 17 29 29 29 30 29 30

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 404 518 394 715 695 699 892 835 885

137. Automobile repair.................................................................... 32 80 87 92 90 90 117 109 116

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 73 112 85 135 132 132 158 147 156

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 92 129 70 111 108 109 129 120 128

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 15 52 122 152 148 149 184 173 183

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 67 101 217 345 335 337 401 376 398

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 40 5 3 7 7 7 10 10 10

143. Educational services............................................................... 791 818 390 620 602 606 721 675 715

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

145. Post office............................................................................... 149 312 209 275 267 269 311 291 308

146. Commodity Credit Corporation.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 2 9 3 3 3 3 4 4 4

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 21 8 13 13 13 13 10 10 10

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 2186 3413 2919 3413 3317 3338 2815 2635 .2791

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... -241 -297 20 753 732 736 1358 1271 1347

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 1358 775 636 1360 1322 1330 1832 1715 1816

153. Government industry .............................................................. 37898 45842 35552 32473 32473 33190 32719 32719 33185

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

98

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-14. Federal Government purchases, nondefens®, seleeted historieal and projeeted v©®rs, 19S3 t©

1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 21395 26647 28613 35503 35004 32240 37007 36506 33395

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 3 4 2 3 3 3 2 2 2

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 4 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 3

3. Cotton........................................................................................ 492 -874 22 337 328 313 343 334 318

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... -551 -549 -820 -427 -415 -396 -596 -581 -554

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... -148 308 -182 146 142 135 199 194 185

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. -751 -820 -532 -492 -479 -457 -573 -558 -532

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............................. 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining ................................................ -10 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... 14 67 1 -1 -1 -1 2 2 2

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 13 12 11 13 12 12 12 11 11

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 0 0 0 97 94 90 165 161 153

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 99 112 50 43 42 40 32 31 29

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 682 1067 1098 1406 1369 1305 1477 1439 1371

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 38 56 22 66 64 61 71 70 66

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 1279 2127 1316 1492 1453 1384 1441 1404 1337

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 9 56 24 41 40 38 49 48 46

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 105 629 192 120 117 111 143 139 133

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 9 23 11 18 17 16 21 21 20

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 12 73 35 55 54 51 65 63 60

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 5 9 4 7 7 7 8 8 8

23. Sugar...................................... ................................................. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 3 5 2 4 4 4 6 6 6

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................. 39 19 37 28 28 26 18 17 17

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

30. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 2 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 7

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 4 7 10 10 10 10 11 10 10

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 46 58 49 69 67 64 77 75 71

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. 11 20 20 24 23 22 24 24 22

35. Logging..................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

36. S a w m ills a n d p lan in g m ills ............................................................................. 41 1 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 33 60 42 42 41 39 43 42 40

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 0 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 17 60 50 68 66 63 75 73 69

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 53 96 85 112 109 104 120 117 111

41. Paper products......................................................................... 76 127 110 144 140 134 154 150 143

42. Paperboard.............................................................................. 3 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 54 26 22 29 28 27 30 30 28

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c............................................ ...... -27 152 201 223 217 207 227 221 211

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ 144 349 194 306 298 284 377 368 350

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 15 25 9 21 20 19 28 28 26

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 56 95 47 76 74 71 82 80 76

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

51. Drugs........................................................................................ 75 54 74 116 113 107 136 133 127

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 10 43 22 50 49 47 66 64 61

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 48 -29 9 25 24 23 31 30 29

54. Petroleum refining and related products ............................... 233 368 202 247 241 229 -257 251 239

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 13 44 33 49 48 45 57 55 53

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 9 17 24 40 39 37 46 45 43

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 6 18 29 42 41 39 46 45 43

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 0 4 1 2 2 2 3 3 3

See footnotes at end of table.

99

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Tab!© A -14. Federal G overnm en t purchases, n on defen se, selected historical and p ro jected years, 1963 to

1990—-Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 1 4 3 5 5 5 6 6 6

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 10 18 19 24 23 22 26 26 24

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 276 238 125 122 119 113 131 128 122

62. Structural clay products .......................................................... 4 5 5 8 8 8 9 9 9

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 1 3 8 10 10 10 13 12 12

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 3 19 22 30 30 28 34 33 31

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 199 14 35 32 32 30 25 25 23

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 43 89 103 125 122 116 133 130 124

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... -205 -173 38 24 23 22 39 38 36

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 5 6 8 10 10 10 13 12 12

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 259 267 294 355 345 329 367 358 341

73. Screw machine products........................................................ 8 60 31 56 55 52 69 68 64

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 5 7 5 8 8 8 9 9 9

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 17 44 37 48 47 45 51 50 48

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 47 50 79 99 97 92 96 93 89

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 48 97 136 165 161 153 172 168 160

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 2 7 5 8 8 8 9 9 9

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 38 31 26 36 35 33 39 38 36

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 14 34 34 40 39 37 44 43 41

81. Metalworking machinery ......................................................... 41 68 52 88 85 81 92 90 86

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 16 23 21 29 28 27 32 31 29

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 44 92 62 102 100 95 123 120 114

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 7 16 13 17 16 16 17 16 16

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 121 191 261 589 573 546 672 655 624

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 84 181 170 281 274 261 343 334 318

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 2 12 19 25 24 23 27 27 25

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 50 94 62 85 82 78 91 89 85

89. Electrical industrial apparatus ................................................ 31 80 68 96 94 89 106 103 98

90. Household appliances............................................................. 8 6 4 6 6 6 7 7 7

91. E le c tric lighting an d w ir in g ............................................................................ 3 4 4 0 4 8 6 6 6 4 61 7 3 72 68

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 35 48 42 79 77 74 101 98 94

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 17 30 27 48 47 45 60 58 56

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 570 820 833 950 925 881 1027 1001 954

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 44 118 169 223 217 207 231 225 214

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................. 33 42 33 54 53 50 58 56 54

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 100 287 189 273 266 254 307 300 285

98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 1511 1039 624 867 844 804 955 931 886

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 136 264 197 360 350 334 448 437 416

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 2 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 3

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 127 100 132 162 158 151 174 169 161

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 38 52 61 94 91 87 108 105 100

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 13 36 72 130 126 120 189 185 176

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 77 63 74 114 111 106 136 133 126

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... -6 -5 -25 -13 -12 -12 -8 -8 -8

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 0 4 2 4 4 4 6 6 6

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 32 96 62 107 105 100 132 129 123

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 99 141 78 100 98 93 105 103 98

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 16 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 10

113. Truck transportation............................................................ 248 422 234 300 293 279 314 306 291

114. Water transportation............................................................... 11 0 9 14 13 13 16 15 15

115. Air transportation................. .................................................. 118 211 182 221 215 205 225 219 208

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 2 5 3 6 6 6 7 7 7

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

100

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-14. Federal Government purchases, nondefense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to

1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 61 204 251 403 392 374 424 413 394

120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ -185 10 104 30 29 28 45 44 42

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 21 16 26 28 28 26 32 31 29

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 15 14 4 10 10 10 15 14 14

123. Wholesale trade ..................................................................... 361 557 468 529 515 491 580 565 539

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 72 76 94 111 108 103 126 123 117

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 83 74 43 54 53 50 63 61 59

126. Banking.................................................................................... 729 677 754 728 709 675 824 804 765

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... -10 6 -21 -17 -16 -16 -12 -11 -11

128. Insurance................................................................................. 50 42 -15 7 7 7 24 24 22

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 248 370 291 402 391 373 442 431 410

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 200 253 147 189 184 175 199 194 184

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 22 -22 41 33 32 30 38 37 36

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 526 1042 968 1209 1177 1121 1321 1288 1226

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 7 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

136. Professional services, n.e.c............................................ ........ 535 720 264 481 468 446 599 584 556

137. Automobile repair................................................................... 22 22 41 52 51 48 60 58 56

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 8 9 12 15 14 14 15 14 14

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... -16 -30 -23 -48 -47 -45 -62 -60 -58

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services............................................. 79 14 82 109 106 101 114 112 106

141. Hospitals....................................................... .......................... 123 155 104 140 136 130 151 147 140

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 22 54 89 112 109 104 117 114 108

143. Educational services............................................................... 1055 1481 1279 1333 1298 1237 1410 1375 1309

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

145. Post office............................................................................... 57 120 216 271 264 252 284 277 264

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 2 4 1 3 3 3 4 4 4

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 10 5 4 13 12 12 14 13 13

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 402 607 577 626 609 581 582 568 541

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... 121 -159 343 -134 -131 -124 -357 -348 -331

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 1620 1572 1528 1684 ' 1639 1562 1756 1712 1631

153. Government industry .............................................................. 9617 9874 13777 16514 16514 14628 17066 17066 14883

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... -1172 -501 -203 -785 -764 -728 -1167 -1137 -1083

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

101

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-15. State and local government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to

1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 95427 123085 150693 190238 192080 192080 198423 204500 204500

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 41 51 70 59 60 60 66 69 69

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 1 3 2 6 6 6 6 6 6

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 9 14 20 12 12 12 12 12 12

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 115 125 192 251 258 258 263 282 282

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 3 4 7 8 8 8 9 9 9

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.............................. 23 54 63 45 44 44 48 49 49

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 17 28 22 26 26 26 28 29 28

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 331 465 525 502 507 507 502 536 536

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 36 41 49 39 39 39 35 38 38

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 4983 5482 7342 7053 7203 7203 7439 8030 8030

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 9 10 18 8 16 16 7 14 14

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 339 413 825 790 812 812 882 939 939

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 249 282 461 469 489 489 518 565 565

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 234 274 404 388 409 409 431 471 471

21. Grain mill products ................................................................. 38 44 64 61 63 63 66 72 72

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 105 122 157 146 156 156 173 194 194

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 8 9 18 12 13 13 14 15 15

24. Confectionery products................................................ .......... 53 56 70 60 66 66 67 75 75

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ -6 2 -9 -10 -10 -10 -8 -9 -9

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 41 47 55 49 55 55 60 68 68

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................. 94 116 190 183 199 199 210 238 238

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 0 2 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 34 43 58 112 116 116 116 126 126

30. Floor covering m ills................................................................. 36 50 69 43 43 43 48 49 49

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 12 4 5 5 6 6 5 7 7

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33. Apparel .................................................................................... 66 65 84 173 266 266 175 287 287

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ 15 23 49 67 69 69 71 77 77

35. Logging.................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 236 242 95 79 80 80 77 81 81

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 347 607 339 278 283 283 271 288 288

38. Wooden containers................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 37 58 43 56 57 57 60 63 63

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 287 450 491 655 657 657 737 771 771

41. Paper products........................................................................ 235 339 537 610 624 624 598 638 638

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 20 29 40 38 41 41 41 47 47

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 3 6 2 3 3 3 3 4 4

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 566 911 995 1059 1036 1036 1210 1225 1225

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 302 405 839 986 994 994 1050 1112 1112

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ 89 100 236 285 285 285 320 335 335

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 72 83 91 118 120 120 108 116 116

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 76 92 97 58 60 60 59 64 64

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

51. Drugs....................................................................................... 287 514 886 2020 2037 2037 2360 2499 2499

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................ 114 190 174 213 215 215 223 235 235

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 91 174 150 138 137 137 137 143 143

54. Petroleum refining and related products............................... 860 1158 1694 1600 1653 1653 1680 1821 1821

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 84 113 60 100 114 114 105 126 126

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 91 109 123 130 155 155 135 170 170

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 131 170 172 211 219 219 223 240 240

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

102

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Tabs® A-15. State and local government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to

Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 4 4 9 6 9 9 6 9 9

60. Glass ....................................................................................... 61 127 148 157 161 161 171 183 183

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 1426 1855 2043 1672 1694 1694 1575 1681 1681

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 167 160 120 106 107 107 105 110 110

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 44 51 36 41 43 43 43 47 47

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 256 316 278 231 236 236 226 241 241

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 446 376 308 250 258 258 237 257 257

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 145 113 429 381 385 385 360 383 383

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 438 588 236 191 194 194 189 200 200

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products............................ 7 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 5 7 10 6 6 6 7 7 7

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 170 179 129 94 97 97 95 102 102

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 2072 2686 2193 2545 2567 2567 2610 2762 2762

73. Screw machine products........................................................ 12 10 12 10 10 10 11 11 11

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 21 19 27 27 -1 -1 33 5 5

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 90 152 176 156 160 160 160 170 170

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c.......................................... . 273 382 408 321 315 315 301 311 311

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 52 74 86 95 96 96 99 106 106

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 32 39 44 61 67 67 59 68 68

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 193 190 152 214 217 217 214 228 228

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 44 71 71 56 59 59 55 60 60

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 29 39 42 46 46 46 49 51 51

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 8 16 16 16 16 16 19 19 19

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 85 64 82 54 60 60 52 62 62

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 99 147 179 168 175 175 188 206 206

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 43 74 89 331 324 324 351 354 354

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 95 156 188 208 207 207 225 233 233

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 220 307 411 506 513 513 568 599 599

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 173 165 237 254 258 258 261 277 277

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ 55 58 76 103 104 104 109 116 116

90. Household appliances............................................................. 29 57 59 78 82 82 85 93 93

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 419 473 393 327 333 333 334 355 355

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 27 48 53 61 60 60 69 70 70

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 115 146 153 234 245 245 305 324 324

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 14 22 21 21 30 30 21 31 31

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 40 48 48 130 134 134 131 143 143

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 881 ' 1058 1143 1529 1632 1632 1594 1782 1782

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 2 2 4 2 4 4 2 3 3

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 6 7 17 9 13 13 8 12 12

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 57 72 104 77 77 77 80 86 86

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 6 8 18 6 12 12 5 11 11

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. 6 9 18 14 15 15 12 14 14

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 146 183 188 301 308 308 331 355 355

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 69 111 127 300 305 305 323 344 344

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 12 23 23 28 28 28 31 32 32

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 127 202 331 411 419 419 412 439 439

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 6 5 8 7 7 7 8 8 8

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 8 14 19 14 14 14 15 17 17

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 72 85 176 157 158 158 164 172 172

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 123 154 350 324 301 301 323 311 311

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 329 352 308 276 281 281 275 293 293

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 399 614 687 598 592 592 629 642 642

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 876 1043 1178 1076 1101 1102 1050 1126 1126

114. Water transportation............................................................... 57 61 97 104 107 107 104 111 111

115. Air transportation.................................................................... 183 310 313 448 459 459 457 490 490

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 10 15 20 20 21 21 20 22 22

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

103

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-15. State and local government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to

1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 450 636 1224 1725 1790 1790 1782 1943 1943

120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 1068 1585 1814 1723 1758 1758 1758 1865 1865

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 288 313 607 632 635 635 660 685 685

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... -32 32 49 54 60 60 51 54 54

123. Wholesale trade..................................................................... 1640 2169 2601 2721 2823 2823 2876 3107 3107

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... -1445 -1534 -1691 -1903 -1813 -1813 -2282 -2239 -2239

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 554 782 606 548 559 559 557 599 599

126. Banking.................................................................................... 1047 1107 1758 2841 2869 2869 2752 2947 2947

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 162 172 179 158 187 187 138 184 184

128. Insurance................................................................................. 352 420 516 565 571 571 564 595 595

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 581 746 1634 2013 2049 2049 2060 2205 2205

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 107 -44 92 351 390 390 296 362 362

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 291 351 526 551 549 549 588 612 612

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 1435 1809 2124 4005 4098 4098 4389 4696 4696

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 276 315 474 493 495 495 511 540 540

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 1985 1547 3492 3827 3893 3893 3923 4169 4169

137. Automobile repair................................................................... 232 352 472 459 486 486 452 503 503

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 27 42 31 52 54 54 57 60 60

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... -511 -489 -476 -424 -413 -413 -435 -438 -438

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 274 624 1426 2307 2327 2327 2391 2534 2534

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 511 1172 2324 4015 4050 4050 4326 4585 4585

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 484 1147 3252 4497 4536 4536 5022 5323 5323

143. Educational services............................................................... 26 48 -7 78 143 143 58 134 134

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 6 10 9 20 20 20 22 23 23

145. Post office............................................................................... 203 286 558 652 669 669 673 727 727

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 31 39 42 38 42 42 40 45 45

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 6 8 12 6 7 7 6 8 8

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... 1185 1478 1038 684 683 683 636 672 672

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 9873 14586 11413 11312 11556 11556 10943 11828 11828

153. Government industry .............................................................. 52717 66237 82619 112180 112180 112180 117800 117800 117801

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

104

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-16. State and local government purchases, education, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to

19©0

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 39328 52486 63816 70798 70402 70402 72083 72105 72105

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 30 36 42 35 34 34 39 39 39

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 3 5 8 3 3 3 3 3 3

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 45 51 103 75 73 73 95 95 95

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services............................. 8 29 34 23 22 22 27 27 27

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 11 21 10 15 14 14 17 17 17

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 25 22 45 31 30 30 38 38 38

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 935 1022 2220 1805 1754 1754 1972 1975 1975

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18. Meat products......................................................................... 228 250 538 453 440 440 496 497 497

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 194 202 320 270 262 262 295 295 295

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 175 189 254 194 189 189 218 218 218

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 29 32 44 36 35 35 40 40 40

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 79 87 111 86 84 84 106 106 106

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 5 5 11 9 9 9 10 10 10

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 48 50 62 46 45 45 52 52 52

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 31 33 33 23 23 23 32 32 32

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................. 63 70 112 79 77 77 95 95 95

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 8 13 14 9 9 9 11 11 11

30. Floor covering m ills................................................................. 34 44 54 30 29 29 35 35 35

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 9 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 4 4 4 6 5 5 6 6 6

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. 6 7 9 7 7 7 8 8 8

35. Logging..................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 55 80 31 26 25 25 28 28 28

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 107 218 111 94 91 91 102 103 103

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 20 37 28 31 30 30 35 36 36

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 173 321 307 377 366 366 457 458 458

41. Paper products........................................................................ 108 182 254 215 209 209 235 235 235

42. Paperboard.............................................................................. 10 16 20 14 14 14 16 16 16

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 3 6 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 528 814 890 910 884 884 1047 1049 1049

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 106 167 323 273 265 265 300 301 301

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... 36 46 91 73 71 71 84 84 84

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 10 18 26 14 14 14 16 16 16

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 9 15 23 10 9 9 11 11 11

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

51. Drugs........................................................................................ 22 51 64 61 59 59 71 71 71

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 74 124 83 80 78 78 87 87 87

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 31 44 63 51 50 50 56 56 56

54. Petroleum refining and related products............................... 146 256 404 322 313 313 391 391 391

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 3 5 7 9 9 9 11 11 11

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes............................... 13 10 22 12 11 11 13 13 13

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 56 71 68 65 63 63 71 71 71

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A=16. State and local government purchases, education, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to

1©96-=Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

60. Glass ....................................................................................... 28 65 59 37 36 36 43 43 43

61. Cement and concrete products .............................................. 294 469 257 210 204 204 231 231 231

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 91 81 39 33 32 32 36 36 36

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 18 20 11 14 14 14 17 17 17

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 109 138 89 75 72 72 81 81 81

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 89 54 52 40 39 39 44 44 44

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 18 15 15 12 12 12 13 13 13

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 123 152 87 70 68 68 77 77 77

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................ 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 5 7 10 6 6 6 7 7 7

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 108 110 55 30 29 29 35 35 35

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 657 921 691 676 657 657 743 744 744

73. Screw machine products ........................................................ 2 4 8 6 6 6 7 7 7

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 29 32 49 41 40 40 45 45 45

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 53 79 102 80 78 78 88 88 88

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 61 138 44 35 34 34 38 38 38

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 6 14 13 14 14 14 16 16 16

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 5 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 11 13 16 9 9 9 11 11 11

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 15 20 20 19 18 18 22 22 22

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 8 15 15 15 15 15 18 18 18

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 41 11 21 11 11 11 13 13 13

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 78 128 141 120 117 117 130 130 130

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 33 63 61 287 279 279 307 308 308

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 55 100 111 99 96 96 115 115 115

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 158 219 208 182 177 177 210 210 210

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 65 71 79 65 64 64 70 70 70

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ 11 20 19 18 17 17 20 20 20

90. Household appliances............................................................. 12 31 30 25 24 24 28 28 29

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 187 220 147 124 120 120 144 144 144

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 24 44 45 48 46 46 57 57 57

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 40 80 91 181 176 176 252 253 253

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 3 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 4 10 9 7 7 7 8 8 8

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 145 224 218 227 221 221 263 263 263

98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. 5 8 17 12 12 12 10 10 10

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 63 71 45 36 35 35 41 41 41

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 4 10 11 12 11 11 13 13 13

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 11 18 17 19 18 18 22 22 22

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 43 77 121 98 95 95 102 102 102

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 7 12 16 10 10 10 11 11 12

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 43 43 127 77 75 75 89 89 89

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 76 126 215 180 174 174 198 198 198

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 90 112 88 62 61 61 74 74 74

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 334 508 560 454 441 441 501 502 502

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 263 251 323 273 265 265 300 300 300

114. Water transportation............................................................... 9 12 20 13 12 12 15 15 15

115. Air transportation........... 4........................................................ 64 129 100 111 107 107 128 128 128

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 2 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized for FRASER 

106

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A -16. State and local government purchases, education, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to

1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 95 185 319 260 253 253 286 286 286

120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 539 914 873 785 763 763 875 876 876

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 178 201 415 404 392 392 467 468 468

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 52 99 141 171 167 167 184 185 185

123. Wholesale trade ..................................................................... 587 914 952 790 767 767 976 977 977

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... -1650 -1753 -1999 -2374 -2307 -2307 -2715 -2719 -2719

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... -17 -19 -25 -20 -19 -19 -20 -20 -20

126. Banking.................................................................................... 22 26 19 15 14 14 16 17 17

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

128. Insurance................................................................................. 151 209 221 187 182 182 204 205 205

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 106 123 349 287 279 279 306 306 306

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... -96 -304 -289 -330 -321 -321 -368 -369 -369

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 109 121 195 178 173 173 191 191 191

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 393 469 801 799 777 777 1010 1012 1012

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 100 116 153 119 116 116 127 127 127

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 432 556 1231 1060 1030 1030 1164 1166 1166

137. Automobile repair................................................................... 59 79 80 64 62 62 74 74 74

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 18 33 25 31 30 30 36 36 36

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... -500 -486 -424 -375 -364 -364 -381 -382 -382

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. -3 -7 -7 -8 -8 -8 -9 -9 -9

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

143. Educational services............................................................... -20 -24 -33 -50 -49 -49 -65 -65 -65

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4

145. Post office............................................................................... 20 40 48 38 36 36 43 43 43

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 11 20 23 17 16 16 19 19 19

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 2 3 6 1 1 1 2 2 2

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... 228 127 61 52 51 51 56 56 56

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 2200 3982 2223 1944 1890 1890 1562 1565 1565

153. Government industry .............................................................. 29215 37241 47116 56688 56688 56688 56690 56690 56690

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

Digitized for FRASER 

107

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-17. State and local government purchases, health, welfare, and sanitation, selected historical and projected years,

1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 13335 18620 29124 48215 48446 48446 52790 54525 54525

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 9 14 26 23 24 24 26 28 28

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 9 13 29 37 38 38 42 45 45

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 1 2 4 5 5 5 6 6 6

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 1 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 1 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 8 9 34 45 45 45 48 50 50

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 477 207 284 276 278 278 334 354 354

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18. Meat products......................................................................... 88 137 249 305 308 308 356 377 377

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 45 68 127 174 176 176 195 207 207

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 49 73 133 170 172 172 190 201 201

21. Grain mill products ................................................................. 5 7 14 14 14 14 15 16 16

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 14 22 38 48 48 48 53 57 57

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 2 3 6 3 3 3 3 3 3

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 2 3 6 7 7 7 8 9 9

25. Alcoholic beverages ................................................................ -2 -2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 6 9 18 20 20 20 22 24 24

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................ 26 40 71 87 88 88 97 103 103

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 22 23 38 99 100 100 101 107 107

30. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 0 1 2 3 3 3 4 4 4

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 21 16 29 69 70 70 76 81 81

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. 10 16 28 44 44 44 47 50 50

35. Logging.................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 17 17 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 52 54 29 30 31 31 30 31 31

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 2 3 4 10 10 10 11 11 11

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 9 13 32 57 58 58 64 68 68

41. Paper products........................................................................ 30 49 95 158 160 160 157 167 167

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 6 9 14 18 18 18 20 21 21

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 8 8 20 56 56 57 65 69 69

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 20 32 66 153 154 154 179 190 190

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... 23 33 75 123 124 124 138 146 146

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 9 12 24 24 24 24 25 27 27

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

51. Drugs........................................................................................ 262 460 818 1953 1970 1970 2283 2420 2420

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 17 27 54 76 77 77 83 88 88

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 5 10 10 13 13 13 14 14 14

54. Petroleum refining and related products ............................... 58 89 129 131 132 132 139 147 147

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 2 4 6 18 18 18 23 24 24

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 22 40 54 81 82 82 87 92 92

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 39 44 50 78 79 79 89 94 94

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized for FRASER 

108

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-17. State and local government purchases, health, welfare, and sanitation, selected historical and projected years,

1963 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

’ 1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 4 4

60. Glass ....................................................................................... 26 44 71 111 112 112 120 127 127

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 84 102 256 264 267 267 257 272 272

62. Structural clay products .......................................................... 21 17 39 40 40 40 39 41 41

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 4 4 3 6 6 6 8 9 9

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 33 32 64 61 61 61 59 63 63

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 89 70 40 42 42 42 40 43 43

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 47 30 175 180 182 182 175 185 185

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 114 127 25 26 26 26 25 27 27

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 12 11 32 33 33 33 32 34 34

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 234 251 180 186 188 188 181 191 191

73. Screw machine products........................................................' 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 4 4 5 8 8 8 9 10 10

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 7 11 25 31 31 31 31' 33 33

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 33 54 17 19 19 19 19 20 20

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 2 3 3 7 7 7 8 9 9

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 18 29 33 63 64 64 71 75 75

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 8 14 21 22 22 22 21 23 23

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 3 3 3 7 7 7 8 9 9

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 10 1 12 12 12 12 11 12 12

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 2 3 4 19 19 19 22 23 23

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 5 10 15 49 49 49 54 58 58

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 23 36 130 265 268 268 305 323 323

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 16 10 35 37 37 37 36 38 38

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ 4 4 3 7 7 7 8 9 9

90. Household appliances............................................................. 9 14 16 43 44 44 48 51 51

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 34 54 30 36 36 36 36 38 38

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 1 3 6 10 10 10 9 10 10

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 9 6 3 5 5 5 5 6 6

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 13 18 21 56 57 57 63 66 66

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 26 • 50 66 279 282 282 340 361 361

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 36 54 67 194 196 196 223 236 236

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 61 98 108 281 283 283 303 321 321

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 1 5 6 10 10 10 9 10 10

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 51 76 123 208 210 210 224 238 238

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 0 1 5 3 3 3 3 3 3

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 5 9 27 35 35 35 32 34 34

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 25 30 38 49 49 49 50 53 53

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 10 17 32 46 46 46 43 46 46

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 84 114 249 307 310 310 296 314 314

114. Water transportation............................................................... 12 15 21 51 51 51 52 55 55

115. Air transportation.................................................................... 18 32 37 103 103 103 107 114 114

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

109

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-17. State and local government purchases, health, welfare, and sanitation, selected historical and projected years,

1983 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 34 65 130 229 231 231 234 247 247

120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 51 87 103 233 235 235 240 254 254

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 19 20 51 66 66 66 64 68 68

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... -10 -15 -40 -21 -21 -21 -24 -25 -25

123. Wholesale trade ..................................................................... 201 303 533 734 741 741 802 850 850

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 50 53 75 131 132 132 123 130 130

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 115 182 264 386 390 390 408 433 433

126. Banking.................................................................................... 4 7 9 10 10 10 9 10 10

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

128. Insurance................................................................................. 35 64 123 185 186 186 179 190 190

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 75 153 335 565 570 570 593 629 629

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 31 58 101 222 224 224 229 242 242

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 181 229 331 371 374 374 394 418 418

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 178 291 511 1562 1575 1575 1756 1861 1861

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 23 24 32 39 39 39 42 45 45

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 233 293 734 1416 1428 1428 1489 1578 1578

137. Automobile repair................................................................... 23 43 31 93 94 94 94 99 99

138. Motion pictures................................................ ...................... 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 274 624 1426 2307 2327 2327 2391 2534 2534

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 514 1179 2331 4023 4058 4058 4335 4594 4594

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 484 1147 3252 4497 4536 4536 5022 5323 5323

143. Educational services............................................................... 1 2 2 6 6 6 6 7 7

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... • 3 5 2 11 11 11 11 12 12

145. Post office............................................................................... 51 102 218 292 295 295 304 322 322

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 2 2 4 4 4 4 5 5 5

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... 22 26 29 24 24 24 25 27 27

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 839 1082 1455 1734 1749 1749 1796 1903 1903

153. Government industry .............................................................. 7325 9550 12386 21430 21430 21430 23799 23799 23799

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households...................................................................... r:..... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

110

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-18. State and local government purchases, safety, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to

1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 7246 8894 11621 15805 17468 17468 16664 18515 18515

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 1 2 2 1 3 3 1 3 3

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 5 6 4 7 14 14 6 14 14

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services............................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 1 1 3 2 4 4 2 3 3

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 54 102 132 146 299 299 173 389 389

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 7 9 16 7 15 15 6 13 13

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 23 26 37 30 62 62 28 62 62

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 10 12 14 25 51 51 28 63 63

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 10 11 16 24 49 49 23 52 52

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 1 1 1 3 6 6 3 7 7

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 12 13 8 12 25 25 14 31 31

23. Sugar........................................................................................ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 3 3 2 7 14 14 7 15 15

25. Alcoholic beverages ................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 5 5 4 6 12 12 5 11 11

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................. 5 6 8 17 35 35 18 40 40

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 0 2 4 3 5 5 3 6 6

30. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... -1 -2 1 1 3 3 2 4 4

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 33 38 47 90 183 183 85 192 192

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. -7 -7 2 2 3 3 2 4 4

35. Logging..................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 3 7 10 5 10 10 4 9 9

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 2 3 7 2 4 4 2 3 3

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 12 10 16 10 20 20 12 27 27

41. Paper products........................................................................ 15 19 17 16 33 33 13 29 29

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 3 3 4 4 8 8 3 7 7

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 2 3 2 2 4 4 2 5 5

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 10 15 9 9 17 17 8 18 18

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 2 2

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 2 3 3 2 4 4 2 4 4

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

51. Drugs....................................................................................... 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 3 3

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 4 5 3 3 7 7 3 6 6

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

54. Petroleum refining and related products............................... 37 47 73 48 98 98 43 96 96

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 13 18 16 13 26 26 12 28 28

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 37 44 42 23 48 48 23 52 52

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 3 4 6 7 15 15 7 15 15

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

111

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-18. State and local government purchases, safety, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to

1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 2 2 7 3 6 6 2 5 5

60. Glass ....................................................................................... 3 4 10 4 8 8 3 7 7

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 11 19 26 14 28 28 10 23 23

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 4 3 3 1 2 2 1 2 2

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 2 2 1 2 4 4 2 4 4

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c............................................... 5 6 12 6 12 12 5 10 10

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 6 5 10 6 13 13 5 11 11

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 5 6 7 4 8 8 3 7 7

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 4 4 6 3 7 7 3 6 6

72. Fabricated structural metal products ............. ....................... 28 40 43 22 45 45 17 39 39

73. Screw machine products........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... -17 -19 -28 -26 -53 -53 -24 -53 -53

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 5 7 8 6 12 12 5 11 11

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. -5 -2 -2 -8 -16 -16 -7 -16 -16

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 4 5 5 6 12 12 5 11 11

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 3 4 5 3 5 5 2 5 5

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 8 9 11 6 12 12 5 12 12

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 2 5 8 10 20 20 11 25 25

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 6 7 13 9 18 18 7 16 16

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 3 4 7 4 7 7 3 6 6

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1

90. Household appliances............................................................. 3 4 5 5 9 9 4 9 9

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 10 11 9 8 16 16 6 14 14

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 16 21 32 14 29 29 13 29 29

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 9 12 7 8 17 17 7 17 17

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 3 5 4 4 8 8 3 7 7

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 93 114 176 95 193 193 83 185 185

98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 2 2 4 2 4 4 2 3 3

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 4 5 15 4 7 7 3 7 7

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 6 8 18 6 12 12 5 11 11

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. 1 1 2 2 4 4 2 4 4

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 6 7 12 6 11 11 4 10 10

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 2 3 4 3 5 5 2 5 5

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 6 7 9 9 17 17 7 15 15

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 2 2 2 3 5 5 2 5 5

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. -18 -20 -18 -19 -39 -39 -18 -39 -39

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 6 7 9 5 10 10 4 9 9

112. Local transit and intercity buses........................................... 6 7 6 5 9 9 4 8 8

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 28 28 39 26 52 52 21 48 48

114. Water transportation................ ,............................................. 2 2 2 2 4 4 2 4 4

115. Air transportation.................................................................... 10 13 11 11 22 22 9 20 20

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

112

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-18. State and local government purchases, safety, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to

1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 44 54 55 56 114 114 48 109 109

120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 43 49 50 46 95 95 39 88 88

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 15 13 16 13 26 26 10 22 22

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 5 6 7 11 23 23 11 24 24

123. Wholesale trade ..................................................................... 98 126 95 104 211 211 88 198 198

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 7 8 12 18 37 37 16 35 35

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 10 11 12 6 12 12 5 11 11

126. Banking.................................................................................... 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 18 20 22 27 55 55 31 70 70

128. Insurance................................................................................. 8 11 8 7 15 15 6 14 14

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 26 16 36 27 56 56 22 50 50

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 20 26 19 23 46 46 19 43 43

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 80 94 62 83 170 170 73 163 163

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 3 3

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 37 47 71 69 140 140 56 126 126

137. Automobile repair................................................................... 24 30 58 25 51 51 21 48 48

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 2 3 3 2 4 4 2 4 4

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

143. Educational services............................................................... 26 30 10 60 122 122 57 128 128

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

145. Post office............................................................................... 12. 15 12 13 26 26 11 24 24

146. Commodity Credit Corporation.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 4 5 5 4 9 9 4 8 8

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 3

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... -29 -3 -43 -6 -11 -11 -4 -10 -10

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 102 173 193 204 417 417 201 452 452

153. Government industry .............................................................. 6104 7391 9891 14207 14207 14207 15177 15177 15178

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

113

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-19. State and local government purchases, other, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to

1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

Total.......................................................................................... 35518 43086 46132 55420 55764 55764 56887 59355 59355

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ' 0 0

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 1 3 2 6 6 6 5 6 6

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 5 7 11 6 7 7 6 6 6

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 56 56 56 132 133 133 120 129 129

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................. 14 23 26 18 18 18 17 18 18

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 5 5 9 8 8 8 7 8 8

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 297 433 444 424 428 428 415 444 444

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 36 41 49 39 39 39 35 38 38

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 3517 4151 4706 4826 4873 4873 4959 5311 5311

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 1 1 .1 2 2 2 2 2 2

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

21. Grain mill products ................................................................. 4 4 5 8 8 8 8 8 8

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

25. Alcoholic beverages ................................................................ -4 3 -10 -13 -13 -13 -12 -13 -13

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

28. Tobacco manufacturing ................................................... ...... 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 4 4 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

30. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 2 6 12 10 10 10 9 10 10

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33. Apparel .................................................................................... 8 7 4 8 8 8 8 9 9

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ 7 7 10 15 15 15 14 15 15

35. Logging.................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 163 143 51 41 41 41 37 40 40

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 185 328 189 149 151 151 136 145 145

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 12 14 5 13 13 13 12 13 13

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household .............................. 93 107 136 211 213 213 204 219 219

41. Paper products........................................................................ 82 89 171 221 223 223 193 206 206

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 29 87 83 91 92 92 95 102 102

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 168 191 441 552 557 557 563 603 603

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... 29 22 70 89 90 90 98 105 105

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 61 64 61 100 101 101 88 94 94

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 56 63 48 23 23 23 21 22 22

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

51. Drugs ....................................................................................... 1 1 3 4 4 4 4 4 4

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 20 34 35 54 54 54 51 54 54

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 55 120 77 74 74 74 68 73 73

54. Petroleum refining and related products ............................... 619 767 1089 1099 1109 1109 1108 1187 1187

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 67 87 30 61 61 61 59 63 63

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 19 15 5 14 14 14 13 14 14

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 33 52 49 62 62 62 56 60 60

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

Digitized for FRASER 

114

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-19. State and local government purchases, other, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to

1990—-Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

60. Glass ....................................................................................... 5 14 8 6 6 6 6 6 6

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 1037 1266 1503 1184 1196 1196 1078 1154 1154

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 52 60 41 32 33 33 29 31 31

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 20 25 22 18 18 18 16 17 17

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 111 140 114 90 91 91 82 88 88

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 261 247 207 163 165 165 148 159 159

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 78 67 238 188 190 190 171 183 183

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 197 303 116 92 92 92 83 89 89

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 46 54 36 28 29 29 26 28 28

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 1154 1474 1279 1661 1677 1677 1670 17S8 1788

73. Screw machine products ........................................................ 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 £L 2

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 6 2 1 4 4 4 3 4 4

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 24 56 41 39 39 39 36 38 38

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 184 193 349 276 278 278 251 269 269

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 52 74 86 95 96 96 99 106 106

78. Farm machinery ...................................................................... 19 18 24 35 35 35 30 32 32

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 170 160 115 148 149 149 138 148 148

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 22 40 29 23 23 23 21 22 22

81. Metalworking machinery ......................................................... 12 16 18 20 20 20 20 21 21

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 27 43 39 25 25 25 22 24 24

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 19 14 29 36 36 36 45 48 48

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 9 8 23 25 25 25 22 24 24

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 33 45 61 59 59 59 55 59 59

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 33 44 60 50 51 51 46 49 49

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 89 81 116 149 150 150 153 163 163

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................. 39 35 53 78 78 78 81 86 86

90. Household appliances............................................................. 5 8 8 6 6 6 5 6 6

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 189 189 207 159 161 161 148 159 159

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 4 4

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 49 40 28 34 35 35 35 37 37

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 2 4 8 5 5 5 5 5 5

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c......... ................. 21 16 15 62 63 63 57 61 61

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 617 670 683 928 937 937 908 973 973

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 2 2 2 5 5 5 5 5 5

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 57 72 104 77 77 77 80 86 86

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 40 51 64 66 67 67 63 67 67

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 5

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 27 42 77 96 97 97 79 84 84

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 27 39 42 75 76 76 70 75 75

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 61 39 126 129 130 130 111 119 119

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 209 203 173 160 161 161 146 157 157

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 50 82 89 95 96 96 81 86 86

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 501 650 568 470 475 475 433 464 464

114. Water transportation............................................................... 34 32 53 39 39 39 35 38 38

115. Air transportation..................................................................... 92 136 166 224 226 226 213 228 228

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 6 8 14 12 13 13 11 12 12

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See footnotes at end of table.

115

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table A-19. State and local government purchases, other, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to

1§90=Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1963 1967 1972

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 277 333 720 1181 1192 1192 1215 1301 1301

120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 435 534 787 659 666 666 604 647 647

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 77 80 125 150 151 151 119 127 127

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... -78 -58 -59 -107 -108 -108 -120 -129 -129

123. Wholesale trade ..................................................................... 755 826 1021 1093 1104 1104 1010 1082 1082

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 148 158 221 322 325 325 294 315 315

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 446 609 355 176 177 177 164 175 175

126. Banking.................................................................................... 1020 1073 1727 2816 2843 2843 2725 2919 2919

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 142 149 155 128 130 130 105 112 112

128. Insurance................................................................................. 158 138 164 186 187 187 174 186 186

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 374 453 915 1134 1144 1144 1139 1220 1220

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 151 176 261 437 441 441 417 446 446

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 785 956 750 1561 1576 1576 1550 1660 1660

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 152 174 289 334 337 337 341 365 365

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 1284 652 1455 1283 1296 1296 1215 1301 1301

137. Automobile repair.................................................................... 126 200 303 277 280 280 263 282 282

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 7 5 3 18 18 18 18 19 19

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... -12 -4 -53 -52 -52 -52 -57 -61 -61

140. Doctors’ and dentists' services.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

141. Hospitals............................... •.................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

143. Educational services............................................................... 19 41 13 63 64 64 60 64 64

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 2 3 4 6 6 6 7 7 7

145. Post office............................................................................... 120 130 281 309 312 312 316 338 338

146. Commodity Credit Corporation.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c....................... 14 11 10 13 13 13 12 13 13

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 2 3 4 2 2 2 2 2 2

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods.................................... 964 1328 991 613 619 619 559 598 598

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 6731 9350 7543 7429 7501 7501 7384 7908 7908

153. Government industry ............ ................................................. 10073 12055 13226 19855 19855 19855 22134 22134 22134

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

116

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Appgndte B. Domestie Output, Employment, andl Hours, 

Selected Historical and Projected Years, 1959 to 1990

Digitized for FRASER 

117

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table B-1. Domestic output, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Actual Projected

Sector

1959 1969 1979

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I 'High II

1. Dairy and poultry products ...................................................... 10,786 11,219 13,765 16,285 17,016 16,958 18,313 19,689 19,943

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 23,509 28,150 33,730 35,635 37,195 37,024 38,965 42,068 42,411

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 2,629 1,967 2,772 3,146 3,318 3,266 3,490 3,891 3,819

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 11,573 15,969 21,130 25,591 26,892 26,519 28,745 31,768 31,184

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 11,510 15,104 21,458 22,771 23,930 23,598 25,878 28,268 27,748

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 1,927 1,401 3,190 3,255 3,401 3,387 3,601 3,791 3,773

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ............................. 2,498 3,272 4,799 5,041 5,379 5,340 5,754 6,439 6,446

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 653 1,330 1,216 1,731 1,845 1,823 2,012 2,299 2,227

9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 800 1,497 ' 1,554 1,410 1,509 1,494 1,498 1,735 1,702

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ...................... 553 611 787 685 736 729 763 851 823

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 3,987 5,202 7,115 11,383 12,193 11,984 13,557 15,314 14,919

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 12,062 17,091 16,127 17,713 18,807 18,727 17,450 18,898 18,756

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 2,041 2,711 3,716 3,620 3,780 3,755 3,952 4,347 4,325

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 474 734 961 1,258 1,326 1,300 1,447 1,600 1,538

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 31,064 34,502 42,349 48,098 51,351 51,142 54,653 61,420 61,752

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 1,257 6,837 2,540 3,301 3,434 3,407 3,755 3,999 4,053

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 3,626 5,800 4,394 5,443 5,384 5,327 5,712 5,662 5,767

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 21,584 28,919 36,250 38,956 40,622 40,480 43,182 46,320 46,845

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 13,296 13,466 17,958 20,597 21,521 21,452 22,300 23,947 24,291

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 7,249 11,064 14,738 16,252 16,964 16,904 17,836 19,122 19,361

21. Grain mill products ................................................................. 9,062 12,010 15,334 17,266 18,052 17,937 19,408 20,970 21,055

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 7,503 8,364 8,530 8,663 9,076 9,056 8,977 9,664 9,829

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 2,422 3,079 3,217 3,813 3,861 3,856 3,932 4,062 4,128

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 2,470 3,194 3,735 3,917 4,085 4,073 4,253 4,546 4,611

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 6,606 10,423 15,110 16,793 17,252 17,198 19,472 20,263 20,314

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 3,032 5,262 8,836 9,923 10,389 10,353 11,934 12,836 13,020

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................ 8,819 11,943 14,507 15,723 16,448 16,323 17,683 19,115 19,103

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 8,319 8,658 9,111 9,517 9,773 9,670 9,649 10,068 9,890

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 12,617 16,476 21,359 23,668 25,575 25,476 26,994 30,234 30,314

30. Floor covering mills ................................................................. 747 2,342 4,263 4,943 5,345 5,305 5,672 6,532 6,537

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 1,762 2,696 3,438 3,834 4,135 4,102 4,255 4,865 4,823

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 2,706 5,430 7,555 8,567 9,288 9,303 9,695 10,651 10,778

33. Apparel.................................................................................... 15,734 21,327 23,557 28,329 30,612 30,678 32,578 35,664 36,129

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ 2,335 4,457 5,651 6,071 6,735 6,691 6,869 8,188 8,267

35. Logging.................................................................................... 3,000 4,168 6,702 5,933 6,267 6,188 6,705 7,359 7,215

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 6,161 6,062 7,200 7,812 8,178 8,126 8,489 9,029 8,990

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 4,386 7,033 11,542 12,524 13,214 13,151 13,430 15,003 15,051

38. Wooden containers................................................................. 535 602 331 399 427 423 446 504 500

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 4,391 5,851 8,159 9,308 10,078 10,029 10,296 12,039 12,317

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household .............................. 1,889 3,422 4,716 4,817 5,550 5,542 5,521 7,244 7,258

41. Paper products........................................................................ 12,052 18,802 24,370 26,392 28,151 27,937 30,260 33,937 33,802

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 4,592 7,492 9,970 10,855 11,618 11,549 12,402 14,009 14,033

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 6,110 7,777 9,092 10,776 11,843 11,767 12,351 14,105 14,176

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 5,952 8,849 10,416 12,577 13,499 13,409 14,643 16,760 16,808

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 8,043 12,000 15,492 18,237 19,524 19,418 20,908 23,733 23,816

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ 8,077 14,313 20,751 25,480 27,114 26,727 29,819 33,530 32,780

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 1,862 3,553 5,030 5,854 6,162 6,051 6,905 7,621 7,384

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 2,704 4,364 5,302 6,319 6,733 6,662 7,245 8,162 8,065

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 2,464 5,218 7,736 8,893 9,588 9,460 10,632 12,291 12,059

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 1,493 3,619 7,377 7,649 8,235 8,169 9,062 10,140 10,044

51. Drugs ....................................................................................... 2,949 6,363 11,898 14,471 14,861 14,817 16,966 18,457 18,314

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................ 4,211 7,568 10,705 11,868 12,608 12,492 13,431 15,176 15,222

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 2,534 3,261 3,956 4,698 5,044 5,012 5,370 6,160 6,154

54. Petroleum refining and related products ............................... 19,893 29,246 40,330 35,320 38,422 38,214 33,951 38,383 38,275

55. Tires and inner tubes .............................................................. 3,226 5,111 6,041 7,318 8,104 8,074 8,228 9,907 9,839

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 2,775 4,292 2,917 5,513 5,962 5,930 6,363 7,360 7,334

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 3,428 8,208 17,192 18,637 20,082 19,883 23,352 27,096 26,930

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 1,217 1,094 1,018 1,068 1,118 1,115 1,158 1,211 1,206

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 4,726 5,071 4,158 4,648 4,915 4,926 5,035 5,359 5,425

60. Glass ....................................................................................... 3,496 5,041 6,702 7,733 8,275 8,214 9,090 10,313 10,277

61. Cement and concrete products .............................................. 6,112 7,998 9,582 10,076 10,492 10,459 10,744 11,824 11,885

62. Structural clay products .......................................................... 1,053 1,142 1,239 1,298 1,355 1,348 1,401 1,474 1,475

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Table B-1. Domestic output, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1959 1969 1979

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 644 857 896 919 957 944 1,024 1,116 1,110

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c...................... ......................... 2,986 3,903 5,526 5,649 6,037 5,996 6,356 7,294 7,263

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 24,022 32,317 31,388 34,166 37,218 36,948 35,638 42,015 41,494

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 5,274 8,127 8,258 9,831 10,983 10,896 10,751 13,183 13,008

67. Primary copper and copper products............................ ........ 6,772 10,633 13,570 14,216 15,334 15,198 16,109 18,887 18,657

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... 4,022 7,170 9,706 11,283 12,264 12,146 13,227 15,546 15,305

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 3,440 5,513 4,943 6,494 6,862 6,787 7,376 8,403 8,149

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 3,091 4,665 5,132 6,124 6,418 6,384 6,851 7,424 7,449

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 1,835 2,350 2,261 2,440 2,591 2,575 2,725 2,997 2,993

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 7,639 12,322 16,488 17,128 18,202 18,122 18,789 21,768 21,790

73. Screw machine products ........................................................ 2,837 3,417 3,545 4,096 4,519 4,482 4,650 5,589 5,534

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 5,513 8,082 9,946 10,896 12,189 12,076 12,199 14,792 14,572

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 2,978 4,612 5,908 6,627 7,218 7,160 7,569 8,869 8,809

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 5,679 9,028 12,240 12,828 13,917 13,802 14,688 17,283 17,130

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 2,681 4,878 7,022 7,947 8,917 8,808 9,110 11,328 11,093

78. Farm machinery ...................................................................... 3,641 4,590 8,220 9,537 10,770 10,720 11,499 14,736 14,627

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery......................... 5,132 7,273 11,477 13,938 15,814 15,569 17,272 22,129 21,475

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 1,484 2,934 3,461 4,094 4,720 4,697 5,047 6,671 6,632

81. Metalworking machinery......................................................... 5,118 8,602 9,253 10,494 12,073 11,983 12,233 15,959 15,774

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 3,751 5,914 6,023 6,647 7,692 7,628 7,156 9,401 9,235

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 5,167 8,368 10,649 12,146 13,708 13,575 14,634 18,610 18,314

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 2,645 4,642 5,908 6,449 7,107 7,049 7,522 9,024 8,925

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 1,736 6,084 16,010 23,727 26,997 26,572 35,901 46,082 44,824

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 770 1,489 2,608 3,221 3,705 3,679 3,882 5,088 5,046

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 2,394 6,115 10,294 11,342 12,650 12,578 12,985 15,969 15,911

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 2,933 4,661 6,863 7,690 8,646 8,594 9,261 11,654 11,584

89. Electrical industrial apparatus ................................................ 3,234 5,602 7,260 8,009 8,937 8,854 9,735 12,043 11,896

90. Household appliances............................................................. 3,408 6,146 7,797 8,186 8,996 8,940 9,331 10,890 11,066

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 3,237 5,112 6,347 7,083 7,669 7,614 8,263 9,637 9,602

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 1,397 3,902 5,571 7,544 8,851 8,685 7,790 11,238 11,237

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus.........................'............ 1,466 3,752 5,863 6,923 8,056 8,031 8,422 11,234 11,226

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 3,874 11,225 13,256 15,052 15,762 15,657 18,087 20,205 20,348

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 2,673 7,452 18,085 20,734 22,707 22,283 27,435 33,145 32,183

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 2,200 3,730 6,122 6,583 7,390 7,339 7,918 9,676 9,578

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 32,900 58,796 83,710 86,974 101,956 101,872 102,124 130,214 129,675

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 18,389 26,226 26,116 32,006 32,647 32,171 37,519 39,981 39,297

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 2,619 3,926 5,470 6,384 6,962 6,900 7,628 9,080 9,139

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 1,386 2,767 4,938 4,073 4,753 4,733 4,987 6,774 6,743

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 177 388 859 915 1,082 1,057 1,082 1,521 1,537

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. 716 2,748 3,963 4,561 5,030 5,011 4,999 5,958 5,984

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 3,182 3,561 5,639 6,481 7,162 7,098 7,497 9,108 9,015

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 897 2,101 3,802 4,620 5,116 5,089 5,592 7,003 6,970

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 917 1,112 2,002 2,500 2,711 2,699 3,157 3,856 3,829

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 1,483 4,383 8,036 9,920 11,204 11,092 11,830 14,747 14,573

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 554 1,097 1,529 1,867 1,996 1,990 2,083 2,403 2,388

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 1,458 2,502 2,793 2,957 3,003 3,005 3,173 3,583 3,557

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 2,070 3,260 4,463 5,290 6,117 6,058 5,894 7,209 7,243

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 3,053 4,800 5,986 7,073 7,629 7,577 7,958 9,146 9,133

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 12,034 15,107 16,862 19,120 20,560 20,386 21,492 24,556 24,382

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 6,603 6,341 5,683 6,601 6,969 6,955 7,325 7,964 7,957

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 17,796 25,788 33,948 38,106 41,215 40,928 43,907 50,573 50,476

114. Water transportation............................................................... 7,035 5,888 10,128 10,742 11,400 11,165 12,412 13,787 13,271

115. Air transportation....................................................... ............. 4,245 12,860 18,618 21,745 23,435 23,226 27,219 31,265 30,911

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 775 1,402 1,911 1,987 2,151 2,133 2,085 2,342 2,311

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 868 1,395 1,729 2,303 2,475 2,442 2,752 3,150 3,079

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 5,275 4,556 3,554 5,659 6,114 6,081 6,547 7,513 7,534

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 12,337 25,545 54,461 78,575 83,582 83,116 108,161 119,993 119,324

120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 13,382 26,363 43,213 51,301 54,942 54,576 61,459 69,147 69,632

121. Gas utilities, excluding public ................................................ 10,250 18,582 18,783 18,976 19,698 19,614 19,736 21,321 21,190

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 1,754 2,335 2,937 3,395 3,558 3,545 3,927 4,316 4,345

123. Wholesale trade ..................................................................... 51,805 87,369 125,277 138,230 150,516 149,508 160,490 187,564 187,177

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 33,547 45,502 55,323 66,257 70,755 70,604 75,854 83,359 84,355

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table B-1. Domestic output, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Sector

Actual Projected

1959 1969 1979

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 71,149 99,834 136,492 141,694 156,380 156,012 166,930 194,271 196,755

126. Banking.................................................................................... 13,526 22,177 33,212 38,899 40,686 40,471 44,862 48,701 48,972

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 9,340 13,575 16,383 19,255 22,836 23,062 21,677 26,699 27,030

128. Insurance................................................................................. 24,979 31,867 49,717 53,989 56,421 56,355 64,211 72,472 72,950

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 41,966 66,891 112,752 116,740 129,850 130,088 135,401 157,740 160,714

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 43,508 77,142 124,874 134,598 145,865 145,363 154,421 176,464 177,440

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 5,166 7,824 9,995 12,371 13,496 13,413 14,235 15,763 15,981

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 12,711 17,474 17,443 19,312 22,076 22,103 20,909 25,620 26,130

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 3,447 4,399 4,045 4,133 4,495 4,504 4,067 4,873 5,024

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 16,293 34,518 58,042 62,431 66,775 66,377 73,683 83,500 83,669

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 2,326 2,917 4,138 4,893 5,286 5,258 5,654 6,487 6,502

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 17,249 25,801 39,607 42,359 45,097 44,886 49,671 56,847 57,433

137. Automobile repair................................................................... 16,119 22,259 32,324 34,989 37,859 37,695 41,435 48,144 48,010

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 4,228 3,774 7,550 8,647 9,715 9,581 9,965 12,055 12,000

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 5,375 7,730 11,957 14,967 16,282 16,132 18,439 21,435 21,834

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services............................................. 13,215 20,384 28,906 35,334 36,889 37,022 41,531 47,321 47,996

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 8,543 17,474 31,404 38,019 39,649 39,400 46,203 53,745 54,211

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 3,608 7,282 13,507 16,061 16,928 16,880 18,772 22,870 23,063

143. Educational services............................................................... 12,210 14,189 13,671 15,023 15,689 15,789 16,542 17,791 18,022

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 9,615 14,157 20,315 21,752 23,492 23,571 25,288 29,857 30,420

145. Post office............................................................................... 5,542 7,918 8,375 9,794 10,456 10,402 10,958 12,361 12,457

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 1,834 2,811 3,070 3,449 3,796 3,780 4,020 4,633 4,656

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 1,196 1,460 1,645 2,030 2,142 2,138 2,250 2,443 2,441

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c....................... 5,068 7,528 8,546 10,527 11,167 11,116 12,082 13,504 13,519

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 90,256 120,220 111,341 138,298 147,652 147,342 146,050 167,728 168,946

153. Government industry .............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households ............................................................................ 6,716 5,784 4,106 3,986 4,068 4,065 3,961 4,004 4,013

156. Inventory valuation adjustment ............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

120

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table B-2. Toflal employment, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990

(Thousands of jobs)

Sector

Actual Projected

1959 1969 1979

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 1,551 814 511 440 496 497 355 396 411

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 979 756 528 504 567 568 453 506 524

3. Cott_.i....................................................................................... 565 178 142 136 150 150 122 137 135

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 960 635 639 646 716 715 592 675 661

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 1,436 1,111 995 896 993 992 814 920 903

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 47 41 76 76 78 74 79 83 76

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services............................. 261 296 447 514 544 515 543 593 543

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................... 33 30 30 34 37 34 35 38 33

9. Copper ore mining................................................................... 23 34 33 32 33 32 35 37 36

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... 31 25 39 39 41 39 40 43 40

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 201 138 265 389 418 390 412 473 412

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 200 157 211 271 279 270 311 325 307

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 105 99 103 104 109 102 104 109 100

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 19 18 25 29 30 29 32 34 32

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 662 792 1,292 1,297 1,360 1,314 1,424 1,532 1,460

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 50 175 75 94 100 89 102 111 98

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 94 107 81 76 79 82 70 73 77

18. Meat products......................................................................... 324 344 364 374 390 365 380 404 372

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 326 260 189 180 188 167 159 169 147

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 249 291 306 287 300 317 289 307 323

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 139 137 146 153 160 149 155 166 151

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 313 286 240 218 228 221 204 218 209

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 38 36 30 35 36 34 34 35 33

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 79 87 79 72 75 74 71 75 73

25. Alcoholic beverages.............................................................. 107 97 88 69 71 72 62 65 65

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 111 142 151 153 160 148 157 167 152

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................ 144 151 163 155 162 160 148 158 156

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 95 83 70 69 73 70 65 68 67

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 619 616 532 565 588 561 534 546 529

30. Floor covering m ills................................................................ 39 58 60 66 71 68 62 69 64

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 74 82 70 77 82 75 75 83 73

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 221 251 229 247 267 246 238 262 232

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 1,100 1,244 1,132 1,202 1,304 1,227 1,190 1,320 1,205

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. 143 182 200 227 239 229 234 251 236

35. Logging..................................................................................... 143 138 148 117 123 117 114 121 108

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 305 230 237 228 238 224 222 231 215

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 261 310 386 357 373 378 344 370 374

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 43 36 25 21 22 22 21 22 22

39. Household furniture................................................................. 259 316 331 363 383 369 379 409 390

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. 124 153 176 180 197 188 180 215 194

41. Paper products........................................................................ 415 , 483 493 529 535 528 547 548 545

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 175 231 215 214 223 219 222 234 230

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 328 376 435 472 505 486 506 549 526

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 156 210 230 269 284 266 303 329 305

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 446 550 641 643 676 657 664 717 693

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... 260 296 323 398 407 402 418 427 425

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 54 65 70 71 72 68 74 76 71

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 82 124 100 104 107 109 114 118 122

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 81 108 101 103 110 107 97 108 106

50. Synthetic fibers ....................................................................... 79 132 118 103 110 109 93 101 102

51. Drugs........................................................................................ 106 143 194 217 227 217 229 247 232

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 89 123 140 139 149 141 146 162 152

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 62 72 69 70 71 69 71 75 69

54. Petroleum refining and related products............................... 217 182 210 185 198 185 184 202 184

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 105 119 122 124 129 126 126 129 126

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 178 162 167 193 197 198 180 182 183

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 94 320 493 549 561 541 659 669 645

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 36 29 20 18 18 18 15 16 15

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 341 316 234 228 238 229 212 226 214

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 153 188 205 226 233 227 240 252 242

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 209 228 254 256 266 260 254 268 261

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 78 64 52 49 51 48 44 45 43

121

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table B-2. Total employment, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued

(Thousands of jobs)

Sector

Actual Projected

1959 1969 1979

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

63. Pottery and related products.................................................. 49 45 51 56 58 54 57 60 55

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 125 140 164 167 176 172 172 187 181

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products ............................... 588 644 569 597 605 597 584 586 583

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 269 312 324 363 374 361 376 387 377

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 137 160 159 160 167 161 164 171 165

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ........................... 111 153 169 169 178 167 174 181 170

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 78 93 90 107 110 105 112 114 108

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 75 87 81 92 97 94 92 100 95

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 71 76 76 95 100 99 101 106 103

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 344 440 538 551 583 555 583 640 601

73. Screw machine products ........................................................ 88 114 117 128 133 128 140 151 143

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 189 255 243 258 272 264 266 290 277

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................. 135 165 186 216 227 215 227 241 227

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 231 315 378 414 433 425 443 472 461

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 90 112 145 147 162 153 149 175 160

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 128 141 183 200 211 204 217 239 224

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 162 202 283 332 358 335 369 474 369

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 65 95 109 136 146 137 149 183 150

81. Metalworking machinery ......................................................... 251 347 379 405 473 416 411 548 424

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 164 206 205 221 228 223 228 235 231

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 221 291 329 371 390 371 394 430 390

84. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 166 246 309 329 352 342 345 382 373

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 111 224 350 443 467 445 552 614 555

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 28 52 48 71 76 66 78 90 73

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 97 147 188 198 214 203 200 226 208

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 157 207 219 236 254 241 237 278 247

89. Electrical industrial apparatus ................................................ 176 223 251 292 313 298 307 356 315

90. Household appliances............................................................. ■157 187 180 181 186 180 193 198 190

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 134 205 226 273 289 280 310 336 324

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 114 156 115 116 129 123 99 121 116

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 105 146 169 186 204 203 202 232 229

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 252 409 357 398 407 393 424 433 418

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 213 394 525 576 577 578 666 670 669

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c.............................. 111 125 180 160 185 163 174 211 176

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 696 912 996 899 986 920 922 1,049 940

98. Aircraft..................................................................................... 722 805 632 720 758 730 768 839 779

99. Ship and boat building and repair .......................................... 151 193 228 241 260 244 271 306 279

100. Railroad equipment................................................................ 41 51 74 59 67 69 66 81 81

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 9 14 20 22 24 26 24 31 32

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c............................................. 23 89 105 115 129 116 120 147 121

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 166 195 218 228 242 228 253 296 246

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 45 82 141 168 178 163 189 225 183

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 85 75 82 90 95 92 92 102 97

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 69 111 134 140 153 144 144 166 152

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 30 35 28 29 30 30 26 29 25

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 67 78 93 90 88 89 91 92 91

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 116 149 145 160 171 169 165 176 175

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 229 233 244 261 267 261 264 270 262

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 930 651 561 503 524 508 463 493 468

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 311 315 303 337 346 330 355 364 349

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 1,001 1,214 1,558 1,747 1,823 1,731 1,922 2,053 1,906

114. Water transportation............................................................... 239 234 223 207 213 197 197 205 183

115. Air transportation.................................................................... 184 357 442 456 474 460 494 525 497

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 24 18 20 21 22 21 23 23 22

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 70 111 192 218 227 221 241 262 246

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 90 131 193 234 241 234 267 278 267

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 749 919 1,121 1,213 1,295 1,225 1,280 1,454 1,300

120. Electric utilities, public and private ........................................ 430 460 606 640 698 643 650 758 654

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 215 220 223 227 242 222 243 275 235

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 6 t 88 93 102 111 106 109 128 114

123. Wholesale trade ..............................................;...................... 3,349 4,163 5,501 6,028 6,327 5,997 6,367 6,964 6,412

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 1,960 2,812 4,924 5,990 6,211 6,000 6,836 7,179 6,843

122

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Table B-2. Total employment, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued

(Thousands of jobs)

Sector

Actual Projected

1959 1969 1979

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ................... 7,936 9,729 11,952 12,851 13,612 12,964 13,830 15,088 14,190

126. Banking.................................................................................... 644 987 1,492 1,724 1,756 1,727 1,982 2,014 1,957

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 389 652 898 918 1,043 1,041 1,174 1,330 1,303

128. Insurance................................................................................. 1,137 1,370 1,753 1,969 1,999 1,972 2,121 2,194 2,133

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 753 855 1,371 1,486 1,629 1,512 1,732 1,927 1,716

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 868 1,065 1,543 1,738 1,918 1,857 1,887 2,126 2,035

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 1,157 1,232 1,278 1,260 1,440 1,341 1,282 1,556 1,424

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 538 634 613 660 725 698 650 771 733

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 814 1,691 3,144 3,574 3,789 3,650 4,315 4,757 4,509

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 121 134 166 186 198 186 192 214 198

136. Professional services, n.e.c..................................................... 746 1,046 1,720 1,933 2,041 1,962 2,179 2,413 2,292

137. Automobile repair.................................................................... 422 569 837 978 1,004 971 1,168 1,208 1,148

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 228 248 308 294 303 293 316 329 306

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 372 497 761 881 890 875 1,029 1,042 1,019

140. Doctors' and dentists’ services.............................................. 605 806 1,317 1,703 1,752 1,683 1,897 1,983 1,875

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 974 1,776 2,621 3,431 3,528 3,372 3,968 4,207 3,954

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 283 652 1,403 1,814 1,885 1,866 2,312 2,553 2,403

143. Educational services............................................................... 839 1,229 1,683 1,864 1,931 1,895 2,099 2,150 2,075

144. Nonprofit organizations .......................................................... 1,331 1,764 2,244 2,343 2,471 2,404 2,638 2,839 2,722

145. Post office............................................................................... 574 732 661 668 680 670 675 700 680

146. Commodity Credit Corporation.............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 104 152 153 174 194 178 202 236 207

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 71 87 130 159 168 167 185 200 190

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 225 351 492 606 640 610 695 775 701

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 3,163 3,594 4,605 5,451 5,720 5,496 5,497 5,978 5,643

153. Government industry .............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households............................................................................. 2,574 2,322 1,723 1,586 1,619 1,592 1,576 1,593 1,587

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Digitized 

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Table 8=3. Total hours, all employees, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990

(Millions of hours)

Sector

Actual Projected

1959 1969 1979

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

1. Dairy and poultry products...................................................... 3,649 1,912 1,212 1,002 1,120 1,125 782 859 893

2. Meat animals and livestock..................................................... 2,303 1,776 1,252 1,144 1,279 1,283 996 1,097 1,137

3. Cotton....................................................................................... 1,329 418 337 314 348 348 277 313 309

4. Food and feed grains............................................................... 2,259 1,492 1,515 1,499 1,667 1,664 1,341 1,542 1,512

5. Agricultural products, n.e.c....................................................... 3,379 2,609 2,359 2,074 2,308 2,303 1,842 2,100 2,060

6. Forestry and fishery products................................................. 94 81 162 149 154 146 154 162 149

7. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .............................. 508 561 983 973 1,040 980 1,021 1,130 1,032

8. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining................................................ 63 64 67 76 79 76 79 85 78

9. Copper ore mining.................................................................... 52 81 71 69 72 69 74 81 77

10. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper...................... 68 55 85 88 93 89 92 98 92

11. Coal mining.............................................................................. 376 287 562 826 893 838 881 1,023 904

12. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................................... 435 351 479 595 615 593 683 716 673

13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying .................................... 241 230 247 247 258 245 244 258 242

14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................... 43 42 58 67 70 68 75 79 76

15. Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 1,273 1,560 2,481 2,510 2,665 2,566 2,771 3,043 2,896

16. Ordnance ................................................................................. 105 363 158 200 211 186 216 231 201

17. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles...................... 199 226 169 160 163 170 147 150 157

18. Meat products ......................................................................... 692 735 754 783 812 745 797 830 746

19. Dairy products......................................................................... 699 553 401 390 405 351 344 359 305

20. Canned and frozen foods....................................................... 498 593 621 578 600 631 583 607 633

21. Grain mill products .................................................................. 311 311 321 342 355 325 348 364 325

22. Bakery products...................................................................... 652 595 489 454 473 450 426 446 418

23. Sugar....................................................................................... 84 75 62 74 75 70 72 73 67

24. Confectionery products........................................................... 164 177 160 150 156 148 147 153 144

25. Alcoholic beverages................................................................ 221 200 183 145 149 149 132 135 132

26. Soft drinks and flavorings....................................................... 233 291 310 321 334 302 328 342 305

27. Food products, n.e.c................................................................. 313 323 336 271 282 325 259 271 312

28. Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... 192 162 139 135 141 135 125 132 125

29. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills................................................. 1,318 1,323 1,128 1,199 1,234 1,241 1,153 1,187 1,215

30. Floor covering m ills................................................................. 83 129 128 142 155 149 133 152 142

31. Textile mill products, n.e.c....................................................... 155 179 149 165 179 161 159 181 157

32. Hosiery and knit goods........................................................... 445 503 457 487 532 482 472 519 454

33. Apparel..................................................................................... 2,086 2,336 2,286 2,195 2,408 2,260 2,182 2,424 2,207

34. Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................. 289 366 401 452 478 454 461 496 462

35. Logging..................................................................................... 293 310 325 261 273 255 251 265 232

36. Sawmills and planing mills...................................................... 631 480 497 480 499 469 4 6 4 480 4 4 4

37. Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c......................... 561 664 802 743 777 785 712 761 763

38. Wooden containers.................................................................. 91 76 50 43 45 44 42 45 43

39. Household furniture ................................................................. 547 660 666 737 789 754 767 850 809

40. Furniture and fixtures, except household .............................. 269 327 364 372 413 391 369 453 405

41. Paper products........................................................................ 920 1,071 1,066 1,172 1,194 1,170 1,201 1,211 1,191

42. Paperboard .............................................................................. 376 496 458 460 488 475 474 514 502

43. Newspaper printing and publishing ........................................ 650 741 850 907 972 935 966 1,044 996

44. Periodical and book printing, publishing................................ 313 421 480 577 608 550 644 697 621

45. Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................... 931 1,145 1,294 1,273 1,341 1,311 1,304 1,405 1,361

46. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals............................ 551 633 675 827 841 827 863 865 855

47. Agricultural chemicals ............................................................. 118 141 151 152 154 144 158 158 147

48. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... 174 261 211 220 226 228 240 244 249

49. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber................................... 174 234 218 223 235 228 210 229 224

50. Synthetic fibers ..................................... .................................. 165 278 252 219 232 229 198 212 212

51. Drugs........................................................................................ 221 298 406 456 474 450 479 507 470

52. Cleaning and toilet preparations............................................. 185 258 291 290 309 292 303 330 308

53. Paints and allied products...................................................... 131 150 145 143 147 142 145 154 142

54. Petroleum refining and related products............................... 457 392 461 407 433 402 409 439 397

55. Tires and inner tubes.............................................................. 223 266 262 267 280 273 274 286 276

56. Rubber products, except tires and tubes.............................. 378 339 347 397 410 407 372 386 382

57. Plastic products....................................................................... 201 670 1,031 1,133 1,175 1,125 1,370 1,430 1,365

58. Leather tanning and industrial leather................................... 74 60 40 37 39 37 32 34 32

59. Leather products, including footwear..................................... 673 614 454 460 484 462 437 462 436

60. Glass ........................................................................................ 320 400 431 483 501 486 520 551 524

61. Cement and concrete products.............................................. 461 509 552 557 579 561 549 580 559

62. Structural clay products.......................................................... 164 134 110 102 106 102 93 95 90

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table B-3. Total hours, all employees, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of hours)

Sector

Actual Projected

1959 1969 1979

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

63. Pottery and related products.............. .................................... 98 93 106 114 119 112 117 122 114

64. Stone and clay products, n.e.c................................................ 271 302 351 361 383 369 371 404 385

65. Blast furnaces and basic steel products............................... 1,217 1,372 1,210 1,279 1,315 1,285 1,255 1,288 1,264

66. Iron and steel foundries and forgings.................................... 560 674 687 784 820 788 815 859 828

67. Primary copper and copper products..................................... 295 347 347 341 360 346 351 375 358

68. Primary aluminum and aluminum products ............................ 235 329 360 359 381 354 370 396 364

69. Primary nonferrous metals and products, n.e.c...................... 170 210 197 226 235 223 237 248 231

70. Metal containers ..................................................................... 163 194 182 206 218 208 205 222 209

71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.............................. 148 160 157 195 205 202 207 218 212

72. Fabricated structural metal products ..................................... 721 936 1,126 1,156 1,227 1,162 1,223 1,347 1,254

73. Screw machine products ........................................................ 192 251 255 284 297 287 313 334 324

74. Metal stampings...................................................................... 409 554 511 562 594 580 582 625 611

75. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ............................ 284 348 386 438 467 439 459 501 467

76. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. 490 672 800 858 912 887 918 1,005 970

77. Engines, turbines, and generators.......................................... 188 238 306 309 339 318 310 358 324

78. Farm machinery...................................................................... 268 295 395 426 453 436 468 511 488

79. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.......................... 344 438 595 720 781 737 799 1,026 830

80. Material handling equipment.................................................. 137 205 231 289 314 299 320 390 340

81. Metalworking machinery ......................................................... 551 780 842 917 1,032 965 950 1,238 1,036

82. Special industry machinery..................................................... 351 447 435 455 480 465 462 496 481

83. General industrial machinery.................................................. 469 627 700 801 839 813 867 956 893

84.' Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. 372 557 670 728 779 753 766 846 818

85. Computers and peripheral equipment.................................... 233 475 739 958 964 914 1,168 1,280 1,200

86. Typewriters and other office equipment................................ 61 110 101 144 156 134 164 186 155

87. Service industry machines...................................................... 205 311 392 422 461 434 422 486 442

88. Electric transmission equipment............................................. 330 439 457 495 538 510 502 603 531

89. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ 369 475 528 614 664 627 651 773 677

90. Household appliances............................................................. 328 393 372 367 377 363 389 398 379

91. Electric lighting and wiring...................................................... 282 424 470 547 585 563 621 687 656

92. Radio and television receiving sets........................................ 235 316 232 232 258 246 196 240 229

93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus...................................... 223 313 359 379 416 411 408 470 461

94. Radio and communication equipment.................................... 528 855 748 825 845 809 872 892 853

95. Electronic components ........................................................... 443 809 1,089 1,229 1,233 1,227 1,450 1,468 1,447

96. Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c............................. 237 264 378 343 386 358 380 449 400

97. Motor vehicles......................................................................... 1,476 1,957 2,113 1,917 2,166 2,010 1,968 2,345 2,080

98. Aircraft...................................................................................... 1,513 1,714 1,331 1,502 1,571 1,506 1,596 1,707 1,573

99. Ship and boat building and repair.......................................... 313 410 469 488 525 488 544 607 547

100. Railroad equipment................................................................. 83 108 158 120 135 140 133 162 162

101. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts............................................ 17 26 43 43 48 53 48 60 65

102. Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. 50 186 211 230 257 229 235 286 232

103. Scientific and controlling instruments.................................... 262 327 461 482 523 486 551 652 555

104. Medical and dental instruments............................................. 95 171 289 347 376 346 403 485 409

105. Optical and ophthalmic equipment........................................ 179 160 177 193 202 194 198 215 201

106. Photographic equipment and supplies.................................. 146 237 285 301 328 308 311 350 319

107. Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices...................... 62 71 57 61 64 62 55 62 55

108. Jewelry and silverware........................................................... 140 162 188 172 169 174 172 174 173

109. Musical instruments and sporting goods.............................. 240 299 292 312 336 332 318 340 338

110. Manufactured products, n.e.c.................................................. 482 486 508 539 554 531 537 550 523

111. Railroad transportation........................................................... 2,002 1,494 1,281 1,126 1,176 1,139 1,020 1,089 1,030

112. Local transit and intercity buses............................................ 706 658 563 605 624 605 626 645 630

113. Truck transportation................................................................ 2,269 2,705 3,290 3,713 3,887 3,656 4,020 4,301 3,955

114. Water transportation............................................................... 515 403 407 369 381 354 346 360 323

115. Air transportation..................................................................... 425 706 885 889 927 900 947 1,010 956

116. Pipeline transportation............................................................ 51 39 44 43 45 44 45 46 44

117. Transportation services.......................................................... 151 221 377 410 430 425 446 487 466

118. Radio and television broadcasting......................................... 179 260 385 476 490 475 548 571 549

119. Communications, except radio and television....................... 1,537 1,929 2,338 2,538 2,755 2,597 2,708 3,047 2,828

120. Electric utilities, public and private........................................ 918 996 1,279 1,405 1,480 1,412 1,444 1,602 1,471

121. Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ 456 467 471 484 502 488 525 572 526

122. Water and sanitary services, excluding public...................... 138 203 204 225 236 242 243 272 267

123. Wholesale trade...................................................................... 7,187 8,834 11,211 11,828 12,455 11,765 12,153 13,304 12,211

124. Eating and drinking places .................................................... 4,225 4,809 6,823 8,252 8,582 8,234 9,146 9,612 9,102

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table B-3. Total hours, all employees, selected historical and projected years, 1959 to 1990—Continued

(Millions of hours)

Actual Projected

Sector

1959 1969 1979

1985 alternatives 1990 alternatives

Low High I High II Low High I High II

125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places................... 16,394 18,235 20,717 21,491 22,835 21,747 22,502 24,565 23,104

126. Banking.................................................................................... 1,250 1,914 2,824 3,284 3,358 3,296 3,775 3,845 3,730

127. Credit agencies and financial brokers................................... 771 1,289 1,738 1,770 2,020 2,008 2,263 2,570 2,508

128. Insurance................................................................................. 2,311 2,672 3,443 3,859 3,931 3,870 4,157 4,31.1 4,182

129. Owner-occupied real estate................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

130. Real estate.............................................................................. 1,534 1,710 2,753 2,832 3,116 2,885 3,246 3,619 3,215

131. Hotels and lodging places..................................................... 1,945 2,097 2,713 2,813 3,114 3,092 2,910 3,283 3,220

132. Personal and repair services................................................. 2,523 2,515 2,307 2,181 2,503 2,275 2,111 2,568 2,295

133. Barber and beauty shops....................................................... 1,224 1,304 1,102 1,160 1,279 1,195 1,091 1,295 1,196

134. Business services, n.e.c.......................................................... 1,413 2,800 5,412 6,108 6,502 6,249 7,229 7,990 7,557

135. Advertising .............................................................................. 236 247 319 348 372 357 353 393 372

136. Professional services, n.e.c..............................................'...... 1,697 2,281 3,471 3,888 4,118 3,939 4,296 4,767 4,505

137. Automobile repair.................................................................... 884 1,189 1,727 1,890 1,962 1,893 2,200 2,324 2,202

138. Motion pictures....................................................................... 345 375 465 470 492 473 506 537 497

139. Amusements and recreation services................................... 681 864 1,224 1,494 1,526 1,496 1,743 1,798 1,756

140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services.............................................. 1,314 1,554 2,324 2,859 2,951 2,874 3,036 3,175 3,043

141. Hospitals.................................................................................. 1,909 3,152 4,663 5,950 6,140 5,788 6,550 6,944 6,431

142. Medical services, except hospitals........................................ 590 1,192 2,442 2,957 3,086 3,120 3,582 3,961 3,807

143. Educational services........................................................... 1,539 2,217 1,955 2,063 2,147 2,111 2,204 2,262 2,188

144. Nonprofit organizations.......................................................... 2,299 3,121 3,651 3,681 3,899 3,742 3,938 4,243 4,012

145. Post office............................................................................... 1,224 1,484 1,392 1,400 1,424 1,405 1,410 1,464 1,438

146. Commodity Credit Corporation............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147. Federal enterprises, n.e.c........................................................ 222 308 322 359 401 368 419 489 429

148. Local government passenger transit..................................... 154 181 270 332 350 349 383 414 393

149. State and local government enterprises, n.e.c...................... 487 732 1,023 1,267 1,339 1,275 1,454 1,620 1,465

150. Noncomparable imports......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

152. Construction industry.............................................................. 6,782 7,734 .9,938 11,211 11,808 11,318 11,239 12,251 11,539

153. Government industry .............................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

154. Rest of the world industry ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

155. Households............................................................................. 3,534 3,019 2,097 2,029 2,070 2,037 2,016 2,038 2,030

156. Inventory valuation adjustment .............................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1?6

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Appendix C. Giwilian In ter F®tr©(i and In ter Fore®

Participation Rates by Age, Sex, and Race, 1982 to 2000

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
G-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 1983 1984 1985

Middle growth path

Total, 16 and over............................. 109,672 111,552 113,301 114,985 65.4 65.8 66.2 66.5

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 25,214 25,029 24,744 24,446 71.2 72.0 72.7 73.2

20 and over............................................. 100,439 102,547 104,578 106,422 65.9 66.3 66.6 67.0

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 69,523 71,579 73,655 75,679 80.4 81.0 81.6 82.2

55 and over............................................. 14,935 14,944 14,902 14,860 32.5 32.2 31.8 31.3

Men, 16 and over.................................... 61,848 62,494 63,072 63,600 77.8 77.8 77.8 77.7

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 13,250 13,063 12,834 12,592 76.3 76.6 76.9 76.9

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,809 4,663 4,491 4,387 62.9 63.2 63.3 63.4

16 and 17........................................ 1,986 1,918 1,883 1,886 52.6 53.0 53.4 53.7

18 and 19........................................ 2,823 2,745 2,608 2,501 72.9 73.1 73.2 73.4

20 to 2 4 .............................................. 8,441 8,400 8,343 8,205 86.9 86.9 86.9 86.9

20 and over............................................. 57,039 57,831 58,581 59,213 79.4 79.3 79.1 79.0

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 39,512 40,361 41,214 42,029 94.1 94.1 94.1 94.0

25 to 3 4 .............................................. 17,092 17,393 17,685 17,976 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.7

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 8,834 8,992 9,101 9,169 94.3 94.2 94.1 94.0

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 8,258 8,401 8,584 8,807 95.6 95.6 95.5 95.4

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 12,604 13,172 13,726 14,252 95.4 95.4 95.4 95.4

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 6,990 7,217 7,524 7,841 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.4

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 5,614 5,955 6,202 6,411 95.1 95.2 95.2 95.2

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 9,816 9,796 9,803 9,80T 91.2 91.1 91.0 91.0

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 4,921 4,967 5,041 5,113 93.0 92.9 92.8 92.7

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 4,895 4,829 4,762 4,688 89.4 89.4 89.3 89.2

55 and over............................................. 9,086 9,070 9,024 8,979 45.1 44.5 43.8 43.1

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 7,207 7,205 7,168 7,122 71.2 70.7 70.2 69.7

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 4,349 4,320 4,276 4,247 81.1 80.8 80.5 80.1

60 to 6 4 ......... ................................. 2,858 2,885 2,892 2,875 60.1 59.6 59.0 58.5

65 and over......................................... 1,879 .1,865 1,856 1,857 18.7 18.3 17.9 17.5

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 1,067 1,052 1,043 1,046 27.7 27.1 26.5 25.9

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 542 541 540 536 18.7 18.4 18.1 17.9

75 and over .................................... 270 272 273 275 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.7

Women, 16 and over ............................... 47,824 49,058 50,229 51,385 54.2 55.0 55.8 56.5

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 11,964 11,966 11,910 11,854 66.3 67.6 68.7 69.7

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,424 4,342 4,232 4,176 57.5 58.4 59.1 59.8

16 and 17........................................ 1,781 1,738 1,725 1,745 48.4 49.3 50.2 51.0

18 and 19........................................ 2,643 2,604 2,507 2,431 65.8 66.6 67.4 68.3

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,540 7,624 7,678 7,678 72.9 74.2 75.4 76.5

20 and over............................................. 43,400 44,716 45,997 47,209 53.8 54.7 55.5 56.2

25 to 54 .................................................. 30,011 31,218 32,441 33,650 67.4 68.7 69.9 71.1

25 to 3 4 .............................................. 13,415 13,935 14,445 14,955 70.9 72.4 73.8 75.1

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 7,171 7,475 7,741 7,976 72.8 74.6 76.2 77.8

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 6,244 6,460 6,704 6,979 68.8 70.0 71.2 72.3

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 9,716 10,348 10,986 11,617 68.6 70.1 71.5 72.9

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 5,379 5,677 6,042 6,427 68.7 70.3 71.9 73.4

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 4,337 4,671 4,944 5,190 68.5 69.8 71.0 72.2

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 6,880 6,935 7,010 7,078 60.0 60.6 61.1 61.7

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 3,516 3,594 3,695 3,795 62.4 63.1 63.8 64.5

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 3,364 3,341 3,315 3,283 57.7 58.0 58.4 58.8

55 and over............................................. 5,849 5,874 5,878 5,881 22.7 22.6 22.3 22.1

55 to 6 4 .............................................. 4,697 4,718 4,713 4,703 41.7 41.7 41.6 41.6

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 2,866 2,853 2,830 2,817 49.0 49.1 49.2 49.3

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 1,831 1,865 1,883 1,886 33.9 33.9 33.8 33.8

65 and over......................................... 1,152 1,156 1,165 1,178 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 719 719 726 738 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 287 289 288 286 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0

75 and over .................................... 146 148 151 154 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5

White

Total, 16 and over............................... 96,131 97,625 98,995 100,316 65.7 66.1 66.5 66.8

Men, 16 and over ....................................... 54,916 55,409 55,838 56,228 78.6 78.6 78.6 78.5

128

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 1983 1984 1985

Middle growth path—Continued

16 to 24 ..................................................... 11,657 11,480 11,268 11,047 78.9 79.4 79.8 80.1

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 4,283 4,152 3,998 3,910 66.8 67.3 67.7 68.0

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 7,374 7,328 7,270 7,137 88.2 88.4 88.6 88.7

20 and over............................................... 50,633 51,257 51,840 52,318 79.8 79.7 79.6 79.4

25 to 54 ..................................................... 34,999 35,690 36,379 37,041 94.8 94.7 94.7 94.6

25 to 3 4 ................................................. 15,014 15,234 15,450 15,669 95.6 95.5 95.4 95.3

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 11,248 11,752 12,232 12,685 96.0 96.0 95.9 95.9

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 8,737 8,704 8,697 8,687 91.9 91.9 91.8 91.7

55 and over................................................ 8,260 8,239 8,191 8,140 45.5 44.9 44.2 43.6

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 6,556 6,547 6,507 6,457 72.0 71.5 71.0 70.5

65 and over............................................ 1,704 1,692 1,684 1,683 18.8 18.4 18.0 17.7

Women, 16 and over.................................. 41,215 42,216 43,157 44,088 53.8 54.7 55.4 56.2

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 10,402 10,391 10,331 10,271 68.9 70.3 71.6 72.8

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 3,914 3,834 3,728 3,675 61.1 62.2 63.1 63.9

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 6,488 6,557 6,603 6,596 74.6 76.0 77.4 78.8

20 and over ................................................ 37,301 38,382 39,429 40,413 53.2 54.0 54.8 55.6

25 to 54 ..................................................... 25,627 26,627 27,636 28,635 66.9 68.2 69.5 70.8

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 11,299 11,713 12,123 12,535 70.3 71.8 73.3 74.7

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 8,359 8,907 9,450 9,983 68.3 69.8 71.2 72.7

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 5,969 6,007 6,063 6,117 59.8 60.4 61.0 61.6

55 and over ................................................ 5,186 5,198 5,190 5,182 22.4 22.2 21.9 21.7

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 4,171 4,180 4,166 4,148 41.5 41.4 41.4 41.4

65 and over............................................ 1,015 1,018 1,024 1,034 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5

B lack and o th e r

Total, 16 and over............................... 13,541 13,927 14,306 14,669 63.3 63.7 64.2 64.4

Men, 16 and over....................................... 6,932 7,085 7,234 7,372 71.9 72.0 72.0 71.9

16 to 2 4 ............ ......................................... 1,593 1,583 1,566 1,545 61.4 61.1 60.8 60.2

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 526 511 493 477 42.7 42.3 41.7 40.8

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,067 1,072 1,073 1,068 78.3 77.6 77.0 76.3

20 and over ................................................ 6,406 6,574 6,741 6,895 76.2 76.1 76.0 75.9

25 to 54 ..................................................... 4,513 4,671 4,835 4,988 89.5 89.6 89.7 89.8

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,078 2,159 2,235 2,307 90.7 90.8 90.7 90.9

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 1,356 1,420 1,494 1,567 90.9 91.1 91.3 91.4

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,079 1,092 1,106 1,114 85.5 85.5 85.6 85.6

55 and over................................................ 826 831 833 839 41.3 40.7 40.0 39.3

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 651 658 661 665 64.6 63.9 63.1 62.7

65 and over............................................ 175 173 172 174 17.6 17.1 16.6 16.2

Women, 16 and over.................................. 6,609 6,842 7,072 7,297 56.3 57.0 57.7 58.3

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,562 1,575 1,579 1,583 53.2 53.8 54.3 54.3

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 510 508 504 501 39.3 39.9 40.4 40.7

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,052 1,067 1,075 1,082 64.2 64.5 64.8 65.3

20 and over ................................................ 6,099 6,334 6,568 6,796 58.4 59.0 59.7 60.6

25 to 54 ..................................................... 4,384 4,591 4,805 5,015 70.2 71.1 72.1 73.2

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,116 2,222 2,322 2,420 74.2 75.4 76.5 77.1

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 1,357 1,441 1,536 1,634 71.0 72.1 73.1 74.6

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 911 928 947 961 61.3 61.6 62.1 62.2

55 and over ................................................ 663 676 688 699 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.4

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 526 538 547 555 44.0 43.9 43.8 43.4

65 and over............................................ 137 138 141 144 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.9

129

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor fo rce and labo r fo rce participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000— C ontinued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

Middle growth path—Continued

Total, 16 and over............................. 116,690 118,376 119,846 121,201 122,375 66.8 67.1 67.4 67.7 67.9

16 to 2 4 ................................................... 24,091 23,824 23,442 23,011 22,607 73.6 73.8 74.3 74.8 75.3

20 and over............................................. 108,108 109,663 111,092 112,533 113,965 67.3 67.5 67.8 68.0 68.2

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 77,834 79,929 81,924 83,875 85,616 82.8 83.3 83.8 84.2 84.6

55 and over............................................. 14,765 14,623 14,480 14,315 14,152 30.9 30.4 29.9 29.4 29.0

Men, 16 and over.................................... 64,136 64,678 65,131 65,542 65,880 77.6 77.4 77.3 77.3 77.2

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 12,318 12,102 11,830 11,542 11,282 76.8 76.5 76.5 76.7 76.8

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,375 4,426 4,426 4,365 4,216 63.4 63.5 64.0 64.6 64.7

16 and 17........................................ 1,932 1,989 1,931 1,797 1,733 54.0 54.2 54.3 54.4 54.5

18 and 19........................................ 2,443 2,437 2,495 2,568 2,483 73.7 73.9 74.2 74.3 74.3

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,943 7,676 7,404 7,177 7,066 86.8 86.7 86.6 86.5 86.4

20 and over............................................. 59,761 60,252 60,705 61,177 61,664 78.8 78.7 78.5 78.4 78.3

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 42,915 43,781 44,614 45,433 46,147 94.0 93.9 93.9 93.8 93.7

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 18,230 18,404 18,503 18,537 18,453 94.6 94.5 94.4 94.3 94.3

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 9,246 9,217 9,156 9,079 8,925 93.9 93.7 93.6 93.5 93.4

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 8,984 9,187 9,347 9,458 9,528 95.3 95.3 95.2 95.2 95.1

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 14,780 15,276 15,646 16,133 16,672 95.3 95.3 95.3 95.2 95.2

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 8,243 8,205 8,341 8,517 8,734 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.1 95.1

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 6,537 7,071 7,305 7,616 7,938 95.3 95.3 95.3 95.4 95.4

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 9,905 10,101 10,465 10,763 11,022 90.9 90.9 90.9 90.8 90.8

45 to 49 ........................................... 5,238 5,423 5,741 5,967 6,156 92.6 92.5 92.4 92.3 92.2

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 4,667 4,678 4,724 4,796 4,866 89.2 89.1 89.1 89.1 89.0

55 and over............................................. 8,903 8,795 8,687 8,567 8,451 42.4 41.7 41.0 40.3 39.6

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 7,049 6,940 6,839 6,728 6,625 69.2 68.8 68.3 67.9 .67.5

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 4,196 4,133 4,064 3,995 3,922 79.8 79.5 79.2 78.9 78.7

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 2,853 2,807 2,775 2,733 2,703 57.9 57.4 56.9 56.4 55.9

65 and over......................................... 1,854 1,855 1,848 1,839 1,826 17.2 16.8 16.5 16.2 15.8

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 1,046 1,052 1,048 1,038 1,019 25.4 24.8 24.2 23.7 23.2

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 533 528 524 525 531 17.6 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.6

275 275 276 276 276 7 5 7 4 7 3 7 -| 7 0

Women, 16 and over .............................. 52,554 53,698 54,715 55,659 56,495 57.2 57.9 58.5 59.1 59.6

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 11,773 11,722 11,612 11,469 11,325 70.5 71.2 72.1 73.1 73.9

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,207 4,287 4,328 4,303 4,194 60.5 61.2 62.2 63.3 63.9

16 and 17........................................ 1,807 1,874 1,839 1,734 1,685 51.9 52.7 53.4 54.0 54.7

18 and 19 ........................................ 2,400 2,413 2,489 2,569 2,509 69.2 69.9 70.8 71.5 72.1

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,566 7,435 7,284 7,166 7,131 77.7 78.7 79.7 80.6 81.4

20 and over............................................. 48,347 49,411 50,387 51,356 52,301 56.9 57.6 58.2 58.7 59.2

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 34,919 36,148 37,310 38,442 39,469 72.3 73.3 74.2 75.1 75.9

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 15,440 15,850 16,180 16,431 16,568 76.4 77.6 78.8 79.8 80.7

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 8,211 8,351 8,447 8,506 8,493 79.4 80.9 82.2 83.5 84.6

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 7,229 7,499 7,733 7,925 8,075 73.3 74.3 75.3 76.2 77.0

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 12,252 12,858 13,359 13,953 14,581 74.2 75.4 76.6 77.7 78.6

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 6,888 6,993 7,228 7,492 7,779 74.9 76.3 77.5 78.7 79.8

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 5,364 5,865 6,131 6,461 6,802 73.4 74.5 75.5 76.5 77.3

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 7,227 7,440 7,771 8,058 8,320 62.2 62.8 63.4 63.8 64.3

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 3,929 4,106 4,381 4,593 4,780 65.1 65.8 66.4 67.0 67.6

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 3,298 3,334 3,390 3,465 3,540 59.1 59.5 59.8 60.1 60.4

55 and over............................................. 5,862 5,828 5,793 5,748 5,701 21.8 21.6 21.3 21.0 20.7

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 4,674 4,624 4,579 4,527 4,476 41.6 41.7 41.7 41.7 41.7

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 2,787 2,753 2,722 2,688 2,650 49.4 49.5 49.5 49.6 49.7

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 1,887 1,871 1,857 1,839 1,826 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8

65 and over......................................... 1,188 1,204 1,214 1,221 1,225 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 748 762 771 775 772 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 285 284 283 285 290 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.6

75 and over .................................... 155 158 160 161 163 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4

White

Total, 16 and over............................... 101,646 102,949 104,054 105,039 105,867 67.2 67.5 67.8 68.1 68.3

Men, 16 and ove r....................................... 56,625 57,022 57,334 57,599 57,800 78.4 78.3 78.2 78.2 78.1

Digitized for FRASER 

130

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

Middle growth path—Continued

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 10,800 10,605 10,356 10,085 9,843 80.1 80.1 80.3 80.7 81.0

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 3,908 3,955 3,951 3,887 3,746 68.3 68.6 69.4 70.2 70.6

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 6,892 6,650 6,405 6,198 6,097 88.8 88.9 88.9 89.0 89.0

20 and over ................................................ 52,717 53,067 53,383 53,712 54,054 79.3 79.1 79.0 78.8 78.7

25 to 54 ..................................................... 37,762 38,460 39,132 39,786 40,342 94.6 94.5 94.4 94.3 94.3

25 to 3 4 ................................................. 15,857 15,964 16,007 15,994 15,876 95.2 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.8

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 13,137 13,561 13,857 14,261 14,709 95.8 95.8 95.8 95.7 95.7

45 to 54 ................................................. 8,768 8,935 9,268 9,531 9,757 91.7 91.6 91.6 91.5 91.5

55 and over ................................................ 8,063 7,957 7,846 7,728 7,615 42.9 42.1 41.4 40.7 40.0

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 6,382 6,274 6,170 6,059 5,958 70.1 69.7 69.3 68.9 68.5

65 and over............................................ 1,681 1,683 1,676 1,669 1,657 17.3 17.0 16.7 16.4 16.0

Women, 16 and over.................................. 45,021 45,927 46,720 47,440 48,067 56.9 57.6 58.2 58.8 59.3

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 10,188 10,132 10,020 9,874 9,731 73.8 74.7 75.8 76.9 78.0

16 to 19 ................................................. 3,702 3,767 3,794 3,760 3,652 64.7 65.6 66.8 68.1 69.0

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 6,486 6,365 6,226 6,114 6,079 80.1 81.4 82.6 83.6 84.6

20 and over ................................................ 41,319 42,160 42,926 43,680 44,415 56.3 57.0 57.6 58.1 58.6

25 to 54 ..................................................... 29,680 30,686 31,636 32,556 33,379 72.0 73.0 74.0 74.9 75.7

25 to 3 4 ................................................. 12,926 13,245 13,494 13,675 13,757 76.0 77.3 78.4 79.4 80.4

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 10,517 11,026 11,431 11,919 12,438 74.0 75.3 76.5 77.6 78.6

45 to 54 ................................................. 6,237 6,415 6,711 6,962 7,184 62.2 62.7 63.3 63.8 64.3

55 and over ................................................ 5,153 5,109 5,064 5,010 4,957 21.4 21.1 20.9 20.6 20.3

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 4,111 4,055 4,003 3,944 3,889 41.4 41.4 41.4 41.4 41.4

65 and over............................................ 1,042 1,054 1,061 1,066 1,068 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1

B lack an d o th e r

Total, 16 and over............................... 15,044 15,427 15,792 16,162 16,508 64.7 65.0 65.2 65.5 65.8

Men, 16 and ove r....................................... 7,511 7,656 7,797 7,943 8,080 71.8 71.6 71.5 71.5 71.5

16 to 24 ..................................................... 1,518 1,497 1,474 1,457 1,439 59.3 58.2 57.4 57.0 56.6

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 467 471 475 478 470 39.9 39.2 38.9 39.0 38.7

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 1,051 1,026 999 979 969 75.7 74.9 74.3 73.6 73.1

20 and over ................................................ 7,044 7,185 7,322 7,465 7,610 75.8 75.7 75.6 75.5 75.4

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 5,153 5,321 5,482 5,647 5,805 89.9 90.0 90.0 90.1 90.2

25 to 3 4 ................................................. 2,373 2,440 2,496 2,543 2,577 90.9 91.0 91.0 91.1 91.2

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 1,643 1,715 1,789 1,872 1,963 91.5 91.6 91.7 91.8 91.9

45 to 5 4 ................................................. 1,137 1,166 1,197 1,232 1,265 85.7 85.7 85.7 85.9 85.9

55 and over................................................ 840 838 841 839 836 38.7 37.9 37.3 36.7 35.9

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 667 666 669 669 667 62.0 61.3 60.8 60.2 59.6

65 and over............................................ 173 172 172 170 169 15.8 15.3 14.9 14.4 14.0

Women, 16 and over.................................. 7,533 7,771 7,995 8,219 8,428 59.0 59.6 60.1 60.6 61.1

16 to 24 ..................................................... 1,585 1,590 1,592 1,595 1,594 55.0 55.1 55.3 55.7 56.1

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 505 520 534 543 542 40.9 41.2 41.8 42.4 42.9

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,080 1,070 1,058 1,052 1,052 65.6 65.9 66.2 66.5 66.8

20 and over ................................................ 7,028 7,251 7,461 7,676 7,886 60.9 61.5 62.0 62.5 62.9

25 to 54 ..................................................... 5,239 5,462 5,674 5,886 6,090 74.0 74.9 75.7 76.4 77.0

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,514 2,605 2,686 2,756 2,811 78.7 79.7 80.6 81.5 82.3

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 1,735 1,832 1,928 2,034 2,143 75.3 76.2 77.1 77.8 78.5

45 to 54 .................................................. 990 10,250 1,060 1,096 1,136 62.9 63.3 63.8 64.1 64.5

55 and over ................................................ 709 719 729 738 744 25.2 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.4

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 563 569 576 583 587 43.8 43.9 43.8 43.8 43.8

65 and over............................................ 146 150 153 155 157 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2

Digitized for FRASER 

131

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C=1. Civilian labor fore® and labor fore© participation rates by ag©, s®k, and race, WB2 to 2000—-Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Middle growth path—Continued

Total, 16 and over............................. 123,532 124,483 125,387 126,423 127,542 68.1 68.2 68.3 68.4 68.6

16 to 24 .................................................. 22,380 22,135 21,983 21,899 21,846 75.7 75.9 76.1 76.4 76.5

20 and over............................................. 115,430 116,504 117,338 118,210 119,139 68.4 68.5 68.6 68.7 68.8

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 87,113 88,389 89,477 90,603 91,779 84.9 85.1 85.2 85.3 85.5

55 and over ............................................. 14,039 13,959 13,927 13,921 13,917 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8

Men, 16 and over.................................... 66,244 66,551 66,875 67,223 67,611 77.2 77.1 77.0 76.9 76.8

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 11,119 10,951 10,839 10,731 10,641 76.8 76.7 76.6 76.4 76.1

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,041 3,963 3,988 4,059 4,144 64.4 64.3 64.5 64.7 64.7

16 and 17........................................ 1,746 1,762 1,777 1,829 1,901 54.8 55.1 55.3 55.6 55.8

18 and 19........................................ 2,295 2,201 2,211 2,230 2,243 74.2 74.2 74.4 74.7 74.9

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,078 6,988 6,851 6,672 6,497 86.3 86.2 86.1 85.9 85.7

20 and over............................................. 62,203 62,588 62,887 63,164 63,467 78.2 78.1 78.0 77.8 77.8

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 46,762 47,306 47,780 48,259 48,758 93.7 93.6 93.5 93.5 93.4

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 18,262 17,958 17,616 17,302 17,029 94.2 94.1 94.1 94.0 94.0

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 8,651 8,372 8,087 7,848 7,727 93.3 93.2 93.1 93.0 92.9

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 9,611 9,586 9,529 9,454 9,302 95.0 95.0 94.9 94.9 94.9

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 17,245 17,413 17,712 18,005 18,297 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.1 95.1

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 8,904 9,099 9,257 9,365 9,434 95.0 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.8

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 8,341 8,314 8,455 8,640 8,863 95.4 95.4 95.4 95.4 95.5

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 11,255 11,935 12,452 12,952 13,432 90.7 90.7 90.7 90.6 90.6

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 6,268 6,769 6,983 7,266 7,563 92.2 92.1 92.1 92.0 91.9

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 4,987 5,166 5,469 5,686 5,869 89.0 88.9 88.9 88.9 88.9

55 and over............................................. 8,363 8,294 8,256 8,233 8,212 39.0 38.5 38.2 37.9 37.6

55 to 6 4 .............................................. 6,553 6,504 6,482 6,482 6,479 67.1 66.9 66.7 66.6 66.5

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 3,894 3,895 3,925 3,975 4,025 78.4 78.2 78.0 77.8 77.6

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 2,659 2,609 2,557 2,507 2,454 55.5 55.0 54.6 54.3 53.9

65 and over......................................... 1,810 1,790 1,774 1,751 1,733 15.5 15.2 14.9 14.6 14.3

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 1,000 973 953 930 913 22.7 22.3 21.9 21.5 21.1

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 535 543 547 547 543 16.4 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.6

75 and over .................................... 275 274 274 274 277 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4

Women, 16 and over ............................... 57,288 57,932 58,512 59,200 59,931 60.0 60.3 60.5 60.8 61.2

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 11,261 11,184 11,144 11,168 11,205 74.6 75.2 75.6 76.3 77.0

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,061 4,016 4,061 4,154 4,259 64.2 64.7 65.4 65.9 66.3

16 and 17........................................ 1,709 1,739 1,763 1,826 1,908 55.4 56.1 56.8 57.4 58.0

18 and 19 ........................................ 2,352 2,277 2,298 2,328 2,351 72.6 73.2 73.9 74.5 75.1

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,200 7,168 7,083 7,014 6,946 82.1 82.6 83.0 84.2 85.3

20 and over ............................................. 53,227 53,916 54,451 55,046 55,672 59.7 60.0 60.2 60.5 60.8

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 40,351 41,083 41,697 42,344 43,021 76.5 76.9 77.3 77.6 78.0

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 16,566 16,441 16,244 16,085 15,971 81.4 82.1 82.5 83.1 83.7

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 8,346 8,174 7,972 7,833 7,792 85.6 86.4 87.0 87.8 88.6

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 8,220 8,267 8,272 8,252 8,179 77.6 78.2 78.7 79.1 79.6

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 15,239 15,534 15,909 16,281 16,651 79.4 80.1 80.6 81.2 81.7

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 8,029 8,291 8,502 8,675 8,812 80.7 81.5 82.0 82.6 83.2

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 7,210 7,243 7,407 7,606 7,839 78.0 78.6 79.1 79.6 80.0

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 8,546 9,108 9,544 9,978 10,399 64.7 65.2 65.6 65.9 66.2

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 4,903 5,321 5,525 5,785 6,059 68.1 68.6 69.1 69.5 69.9

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 3,643 3,787 4,019 4,193 4,340 60.7 61.0 61.2 61.5 61.7

55 and over............................................. 5,676 5,665 5,671 5,688 5,705 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.2 20.2

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 4,452 4,445 4,455 4,480 4,502 41.8 41.9 42.0 42.2 42.3

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 2,650 2,668 2,701 2,750 2,799 49.8 49.8 49.9 50.0 50.0

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 1,802 1,777 1,754 1,730 1,703 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8

65 and over......................................... 1,224 1,220 1,216 1,208 1,203 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 767 757 749 738 731 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.8

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 292 297 300 301 300 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4

75 and over .................................... 165 166 167 169 172 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3

White

Total, 16 and over............................... 106,679 107,304 107,907 108,561 109,292 68.5 68.6 68.7 68.7 68.8

Men, 16 and ove r....................................... 58,023 58,197 58,392 58,614 58,871 78.1 78.0 77.9 77.8 77.7

132

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor fo rce and labo r fo rce participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000— C ontinued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Middle growth path—Continued

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 9,688 9,529 9,421 9,323 9,242 81.2 81.2 81.3 81.1 80.9

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 3,588 3,524 3,555 3,628 3,715 70.6 70.6 71.0 71.2 71.3

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 6,100 6,005 5,866 5,695 5,527 89.1 89.1 89.1 89.1 89.0

20 and over................................................ 54,435 54,673 54,837 54,986 55,156 78.6 78.5 78.4 78.3 78.2

25 to 54 ..................................................... 40,806 41,208 41,551 41,896 42,256 94.2 94.1 94.0 94.0 93.9

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 15,666 15,360 15,022 14,712 14,437 94.7 94.6 94.6 94.5 94.4

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 15,182 15,268 15,492 15,713 15,937 95.7 95.6 95.6 95.6 95.5

45 to 5 4 ................................................. 9,958 10,580 11,037 11,471 11,882 91.4 91.4 91.3 91.2 91.2

55 and over................................................ 7,529 7,460 7,420 7,395 7,373 39.4 39.0 38.6 38.4 38.1

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 5,887 5,836 5,812 5,808 5,804 68.2 68.0 67.9 67.8 67.8

65 and over............................................ 1,642 1,624 1,608 1,587 1,569 15.7 15.4 15.1 14.8 14.5

Women, 16 and over.................................. 48,656 49,107 49,515 49,947 50,421 59.7 60.0 60.3 60.5 60.7

16 to 24-..................................................... 9,660 9,573 9,527 9,484 9,453 78.8 79.4 79.9 80.3 80.6

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 3,527 3,485 3,531 3,617 3,714 69.4 69.9 70.6 71.2 71.6

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 6,133 6,088 5,996 5,867 5,739 85.4 86.1 86.7 87.2 87.8

20 and over................................................ 45,129 45,622 45,984 46,330 46,707 59.1 59.4 59.6 59.8 60.0

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 34,070 34,629 35,086 35,554 36,052 76.3 76.8 77.1 77.4 77.8

25 to 3 4 ................................................. 13,718 13,578 13,373 13,188 13,044 81.1 81.7 82.2 82.7 83.2

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 12,978 13,177 13,465 13,753 14,046 79.5 80.2 80.8 81.3 81.9

45 to 5 4 ................................................. 7,374 7,874 8,248 8,613 8,962 64.7 65.2 65.6 65.9 66.3

55 and over ................................................ 4,926 4,905 4,902 4,909 4,916 20.1 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.7

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 3,861 3,846 3,848 3,864 3,879 41.5 41.6 41.7 41.9 42.1

65 and over............................................ 1,065 1,059 1,054 1,045 1,037 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6

Black and other

Total, 16 and over............................... 16,853 17,179 17,480 17,862 18,250 66.0 66.2 66.3 66.6 67.0

Men, 16 and over....................................... 8,221 8,354 8,483 8,609 8,740 71.5 71.5 71.5 71.4 71.3

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,431 1,422 1,418 1,408 1,399 56.3 56.0 55.7 55.2 54.5

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 453 439 433 431 429 38.0 37.3 36.9 36.6 35.9

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 978 983 985 977 970 72.6 72.1 71.6 71.2 70.8

20 and over................................................ 7,768 7,915 8,050 8,178 8,311 75.4 75.3 75.2 75.1 75.1

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 5,956 6,098 6,229 6,363 6,502 90.3 90.3 90.4 90.4 90.5

25 to 3 4 ................................................. 2,596 2,598 2,594 2,590 2,592 91.2 91.4 91.4 91.5 91.5

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 2,063 2,145 2,220 2,292 2,360 92.0 92.1 92.1 92.2 92.3

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,297 1,355 1,415 1,481 1,550 86.0 85.9 86.0 86.0 86.1

55 and over................................................ 834 834 836 838 839 35.3 34.8 34.4 33.9 33.5

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 666 668 670 674 675 59.0 58.6 58.1 57.7 57.4

65 and over............................................ 168 166 166 164 164 13.6 13.2 13.0 12.6 12.3

Women, 16 and over.................................. 8,632 8,825 8,997 9,253 9,510 61.5 61.8 62.0 62.8 63.5

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,601 1,611 1,617 1,684 1,752 56.5 56.9 57.1 59.5 61.8

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 534 531 530 537 545 43.1 43.4 43.6 43.9 44.1

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 1,067 1,080 1,087 1,147 1,207 66.9 67.2 67.3 71.4 75.4

20 and over................................................ 8,098 8,294 8,467 8,716 8,965 63.3 63.5 63.7 64.5 65.2

25 to 54 ..................................................... 6,281 6,454 6,611 6,790 6,969 77.5 77.9 78.2 78.7 79.2

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,848 2,863 2,871 2,897 2,927 83.0 83.6 84.0 85.0 86.0

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 2,261 2,357 2,444 2,528 2,605 79.1 79.6 80.0 80.4 80.8

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,172 1,234 1,296 1,365 1,437 64.8 65.1 65.4 65.7 66.0

55 and over................................................ 750 760 769 779 789 24.1 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.6

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 591 599 607 616 623 43.7 43.8 43.7 43.8 43.9

65 and over............................................ 159 161 162 163 166 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.7 8.6

133

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
0-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Middle growth path—Continued

Total, 16 and over............................. 128,834 130,031 131,345 132,741 134,155 68.7 68.8 68.9 69.0 69.1

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 21,823 22,176 22,786 23,536 24,276 76.6 76.8 77.2 77.6 78.1

20 and over............................................. 120,097 120,896 121,798 122,820 123,946 68.9 69.0 69.1 69.2 69.3

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 92,927 93,626 93,914 94,240 94,634 85.7 85.8 85.9 86.1 86.2

55 and over............................................. 14,084 14,229 14,645 14,965 15,245 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.7

Men, 16 and over.................................... 68,125 68,544 69,064 69,629 70,214 76.7 76.6 76.5 76.5 76.4

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 10,567 10,687 10,938 11,257 11,569 75.7 75.5 75.4 75.5 75.6

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,301 4,492 4,691 4,873 5,011 64.9 65.1 65.3 65.6 65.8

16 and 17........................................ 1,992 2,089 2,168 2,222 2,256 56.1 56.3 56.4 56.6 56.6

18 and 19........................................ 2,309 2,403 2,523 2,651 2,755 75.1 75.3 75.5 75.8 75.9

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 6,266 6,195 6,247 6,384 6,558 85.6 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4

20 and over............................................. 63,824 64,052 64,373 64,756 65,203 77.7 77.6 77.5 77.4 77.4

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 49,234 49,487 49,518 49,587 49,705 93.4 93.3 93.2 93.2 93.1

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 16,766 16,400 15,988 15,574 15,279 93.9 93.8 93.8 93.7 93.7

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 7,739 7,651 7,522 7,343 7,164 92.9 92.8 92.7 92.6 92.6

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 9,027 8,749 8,466 8,231 8,115 94.8 94.8 94.8 94.7 94.7

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 18,554 18,727 18,834 18,873 18,797 95.1 95.1 95.1 95.1 95.1

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 9,514 9,486 9,431 9,356 9,206 94.8 94.7 94.7 94.6 94.6

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 9,040 9,241 9,403 9,517 9,591 95.5 95.5 95.5 95.5 95.5

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 13,914 14,360 14,696 15,140 15,629 90.5 90.4 90.4 90.4 90.3

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 7,939 7,907 8,035 8,205 8,410 91.9 91.8 91.7 91.7 91.7

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 5,975 6,453 6,661 6,935 7,219 88.8 88.8 88.8 88.8 88.8

55 and over............................................. 8,324 8,370 8,608 8,785 8,940 37.6 37.6 38.0 38.3 38.5

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 6,617 6,688 6,952 7,154 7,328 66.5 66.5 66.6 66.6 66.6

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 4,184 4,260 4,508 4,681 4,824 77.2 77.3 77.2 77.1 77.0

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 2,433 2,428 2,444 2,473 2,504 53.6 53.4 53.2 53.0 52.8

65 and over......................................... 1,707 1,682 1,656 1,631 1,612 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 891 870 848 828 811 20.8 20.5 20.2 20.0 19.9

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 538 530 525 518 514 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.0

75 and o ve r.................................... 278 282 283 285 287 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1

Women, 16 and over ............................... 60,709 61,487 62,281 63,112 63,941 61.5 61.8 62.0 62.3 62.6

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 11,256 11,489 11,848 12,279 12,707 77.5 78.1 78.9 79.7 80.5

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,436 4,643 4,856 5,048 5,198 66.8 67.3 67.7 68.2 68.5

16 and 17........................................ 2,008 2,115 2,203 2,263 2,304 58.5 59.0 59.4 59.7 59.9

18 and 19........................................ 2,428 2,528 2,653 2,785 2,894 75.7 76.1 76.6 77.0 77.3

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 6,820 6,846 6,992 7,231 7,509 86.5 87.8 89.1 90.3 91.5

20 and over............................................. 56,273 56,844 57,425 58,064 58,743 61.1 61.4 61.6 61.9 62.1

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 43,693 44,139 44,396 44,653 44,929 78.4 78.7 79.1 79.3 79.6

25 to 3 4 .............................................. 15,872 15,677 15,428 15,168 14,992 84.5 85.2 85.8 86.5 87.1

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 7,875 7,869 7,819 7,714 7,604 89.5 90.4 91.2 92.1 93.0

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 7,997 7,808 7,609 7,454 7,388 80.0 80.5 80.9 81.4 81.9

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 16,997 17,276 17,490 17,639 17,693 82.2 82.7 83.2 83.7 84.2

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 8,952 9,001 9,017 9,007 8,938 83.8 84.4 85.0 85.6 86.2

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 8,045 8,275 8,473 8,632 8,755 80.5 81.0 81.4 81.9 82.4

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 10,824 11,186 11,478 11,846 12,244 66.6 66.7 66.9 67.0 67.1

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 6,395 6,405 6,536 6,692 6,872 70.3 70.6 70.9 71.1 71.3

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 4,429 4,781 4,942 5,154 5,372 61.9 62.0 62.2 62.3 62.4

55 and over............................................. 5,760 5,859 6,037 6,180 6,305 20.2 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.1

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 4,570 4,681 4,872 5,026 5,160 42.4 42.6 42.8 42.9 43.0

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 2,870 2,972 3,144 3,269 3,374 50.1 50.1 50.1 50.2 50.2

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 1,700 1,709 1,728 1,757 1,786 33.8 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7

65 and over......................................... 1,190 1,178 1,165 1,154 1,145 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 719 707 696 686 675 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.6

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 298 294 291 288 287 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.3

75 and over ................................ . 173 177 178 180 183 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2

White

Total, 16 and over............................... 110,125 110,995 111,915 112,908 113,914 68.9 69.0 69.1 69.2 69.3

Men, 16 and over....................................... 59,184 59,533 59,912 60,333 60,771 77.6 77.5 77.5 77.4 77.4

134

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Middle growth path—Continued

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 9,185 9,307 9,546 9,841 10,129 80.7 80.5 80.5 80.6 80.7

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 3,865 4,045 4,231 4,401 4,530 71.5 71.7 72.0 72.3 72.5

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 5,320 5,262 5,315 5,440 5,599 89.0 88.9 88.9 88.9 88.9

20 and over ................................................ 55,319 55,488 55,681 55,932 56,241 78.1 78.0 77.9 77.8 77.8

25 to 54 ..................................................... 42,590 42,721 42,641 42,607 42,620 93.8 93.8 93.7 93.6 93.6

25 to 3 4 ................................................. 14,165 13,803 13,400 13,002 12,713 94.4 94.3 94.2 94.2 94.2

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 16,132 16,246 16,300 16,297 16,193 95.5 95.5 95.5 95.5 95.5

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 12,293 12,672 12,941 13,308 13,714 91.2 91.0 91.0 91.0 90.9

55 and over................................................ 7,409 7,505 7,725 7,885 8,022 38.1 38.2 38.7 39.0 39.2

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 5,865 5,985 6,231 6,415 6,571 67.8 67.8 67.9 68.0 68.0

65 and over............................................ 1,544 1,520 1,494 1,470 1,451 14.3 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.5

Women, 16 and over.................................. 50,941 51,462 52,003 52,575 53,143 61.0 61.2 61.4 61.7 61.9

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 9,449 9,610 9,886 10,220 10,548 80.9 81.1 81.5 82.0 82.4

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 3,875 4,062 4,255 4,430 4,567 72.1 72.5 73.0 73.4 73.8

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 5,574 5,548 5,631 5,790 5,981 88.3 88.9 89.4 90.0 90.5

20 and over ................................................ 47,066 47,400 47,748 48,145 48,576 60.2 60.4 60.6 60.8 61.0

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 36,538 36,819 36,927 37,043 37,183 78.2 78.5 78.8 79.0 79.3

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 12,907 12,685 12,417 12,143 11,947 83.9 84.5 85.1 85.6 86.2

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 14,319 14,528 14,679 14,775 14,789 82.4 82.9 83.5 84.0 84.6

45 to 5 4 ................................................. 9,312 9,606 9,831 10,125 10,447 66.6 66.7 66.9 67.0 67.1

55 and over................................................ 4,954 5,033 5,190 5,312 5,412 19.7 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.7

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 3,931 4,024 4,195 4,329 4,440 42.2 42.4 42.6 42.7 42.8

65 and over........................................... 1,023 1,009 995 983 972 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2

B lack an d o th e r

Total, 16 and over............................... 18,709 19,036 19,430 19,833 20,241 67.3 67.6 67.8 68.1 68.3

Men, 16 and ove r....................................... 8,941 9,011 9,152 9,296 9,443 71.1 71.0 70.9 70.8 70.7

16 to 24 ..................................................... 1,382 1,380 1,392 1,416 1,440 53.8 53.1 52.7 52.6 52.5

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 436 447 460 472 481 35.6 35.4 35.3 35.3 35.3

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 946 933 932 944 959 70.3 69.9 69.7 69.5 69.4

20 and over................................................ 8,505 8,564 8,692 8,824 8,962 75.0 75.0 74.9 74.8 74.7

25 to 54 ..................................................... 6,644 6,766 6,877 6,980 7,085 90.4 90.4 90.4 90.4 90.4

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,601 2,597 2,588 2,572 2,566 91.5 91.5 91.5 91.5 91.5

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 2,422 2,481 2,534 2,576 2,604 92.4 92.4 92.5 92.6 92.6

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,621 1,688 1,755 1,832 1,915 86.1 86.2 86.2 86.2 86.1

55 and over................................................ 915 865 883 900 918 34.5 33.2 33.2 33.2 33.1

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 752 703 721 739 757 57.9 57.1 57.0 56.9 56.8

65 and over............................................ 163 162 162 161 161 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.2

Women, 16 and over.................................. 9,768 10,025 10,278 10,537 10,798 64.1 64.7 65.3 65.8 66.4

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,807 1,879 1,962 2,059 2,159 63.8 65.7 67.8 69.9 72.1

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 561 581 601 618 631 44.3 44.6 44.8 45.0 45.1

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,246 1,298 1,361 1,441 1,528 79.4 83.5 87.6 91.6 95.7

20 and over................................................ 9,207 9,444 9,677 9,919 10,167 65.9 66.6 67.2 67.8 68.4

25 to 54 ..................................................... 7,155 7,320 7,469 7,610 7,746 79.7 80.1 80.5 80.8 81.2

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,965 2,992 3,011 3,025 3,045 87.1 88.1 89.2 90.2 91.2

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 2,678 2,748 2,811 2,864 2,904 81.2 81.5 81.9 82.3 82.7

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,512 1,580 1,647 1,721 1,797 66.3 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.7

55 and over................................................ 806 826 847 868 893 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.8 23.9

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 639 657 677 697 720 43.9 44.0 44.1 44.2 44.3

65 and over............................................ 167 169 170 171 173 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2

135

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
<S=1„ Civilian 8ab®r tore® amdl Bab®r tore® par£0©DpsiSl©ini rates by ag@, sex, arad raee, 1082 tt@ 2000

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 1983 1984 1985

High growth path

Total, 16 and over............................. 110,926 113,544 116,090 118,252 66.1 67.0 67.8 68.4

16 to 2 4 ................................................... 25,505 25,435 25,274 25,108 72.0 73.2 74.3 75.2

20 and over............................................. 101,583 104,394 107,186 109,472 66.6 67.5 68.3 68.9

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 70,187 72,753 75,383 77,636 81.1 82.3 83.5 84.4

55 and over................. ........................... 15,234 15,356 15,433 15,508 33.2 33.1 32.9 32.7

Men, 16 and ove r.................................... 62,435 63,288 64,079 64,825 78.5 78.8

O

79.0 79.2

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 13,383 13,244 13,065 12,873 77.1 77.7 78.3 78.7

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,876 4,752 4,603 4,521 63.8 64.4 64.9 65.3

16 and 17........................................ 2,021 1,964 1,941 1,957 53.5 54.3 55.0 55.7

18 and 19........................................ 2,855 2,788 2,662 2,564 73.7 74.2 74.8 75.3

20 to 2 4 ........................................... 8,507 8,492 8,462 8,352 87.5 87.8 88.1 88.4

20 and over............................................. 57,559 58,536 59,476 60,304 80.1 80.2 80.4 80.4

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 39,726 40,649 41,577 42,473 94.6 94.8 94.9 95.0

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 17,217 17,562 17,900 18,239 95.6 95.8 95.9 96.1

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 8,902 9,083 9,217 9,310 95.0 95.2 95.3 95.4

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 8,315 8,479 8,683 8,929 96.3 96.5 96.6 96.7

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 12,651 13,237 13,807 14,353 95.8 95.9 95.9 96.0

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 7,030 7,274 7,596 7,932 96.2 96.4 96.5 96.6

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 5,621 5,963 6,211 6,421 95.2 95.3 95.3 95.4

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 9,858 9,850 9,870 9,881 91.6 91.6 91.7 91.7

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 4,944 4,997 5,079 5,160 93.4 93.4 93.5 93.5

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 4,914 4,853 4,791 4,721 89.8 89.8 89.8 89.9

55 and over............................................. 9,326 9,395 9,437 9,479 46.3 46.1 45.8 45.5

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 7,339 7,384 7,394 7,393 72.5 72.5 72.4 72.4

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 4,405 4,394 4,368 4,357 82.1 82.2 82.2 82.2

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 2,934 2,990 3,026 3,036 61.7 61.7 61.7 61.7

65 and over......................................... 1,987 2,011 2,043 2,086 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.7

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 1,139 1,147 1,165 1,194 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 562 570 577 582 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4

75 and o ve r.................................... 286 294 301 310 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7

Women, 16 and o ve r............................... 48,491 50,256 52,011 53,427 54.9 56.3 57.7 58.7

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 12,122 12,191 12,209 12,235 67.2 68.8 70.4 71.9

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,467 4,398 4,301 4,259 58.0 59.2 60.1 61.0

16 and 17........................................ 1,800 1,762 1,755 1,782 48.9 49.9 51.0 52.1

18 and 19........................................ 2,667 2,636 2,546 2,477 66.4 67.5 68.5 69.6

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,655 7,793 7,908 7,976 74.0 75.8 77.6 79.5

20 and over............................................ 44,024 45,858 47,710 49,168 54.6 56.1 57.5 58.5

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 30,461 32,104 33,806 35,163 68.4 70.6 72.8 74.3

25 to 3 4 ................................... ........... 13,654 14,468 15,296 15,870 72.2 75.1 78.1 79.7

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 7,295 7,727 8,132 8,374 74.1 77.1 80.1 81.7

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 6,359 6,741 7,164 7,496 70.1 73.0 76.0 77.6

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 9,879 10,630 11,405 12,094 69.8 72.0 74.2 75.9

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 5,459 5,819 6,256 6,679 69.8 72.1 74.4 76.3

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 4,420 4,811 5,149 5,415 69.8 71.9 74.0 75.4

45 to 5 4 .............................................. 6,928 7,006 7,105 7,199 60.4 61.2 62.0 62.7

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 3,549 3,642 3,760 3,878 63.0 64.0 64.9 65.9

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 3,379 3,364 3,345 3,321 57.9 58.4 58.9 59.4

55 and over............................................. 5,908 5,961 5,996 6,029 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.6

55 to 6 4 .............................................. 4,747 4,788 4,803 4,812 42.2 42.3 42.4 42.6

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 2,871 2,860 2,839 2,829 49.0 49.2 49.3 49.5

60 to 6 4 ............................... ........... 1,876 1,928 1,964 1,983 34.7 35.0 35.3 35.6

65 and over......................................... 1,161 1,173 1,193 1,217 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.9

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 717 722 734 752 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 298 302 305 306 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4

75 and o v e r.................................... 146 149 154 159 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

Whit©

Total, 16 and over............................... 96,985 99,039 101,015 102,667 66.2 67.1 67.8 68.4

Men, 16 and over....................................... 55,288 55,915 56,483 57,014 79.1 79.3 79.5 79.6

Digitized 

136

for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 1983 1984 1985

High growth path—Continued

16 to 24 ..................................................... 11,669 11,501 11,300 11,090 79.0 79.6 80.1 80.4

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 4,286 4,157 4,006 3,920 66.8 67.4 67.8 68.2

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 7,383 7,344 7,294 7,170 88.3 88.6 88.9 89.1

20 and over ................................................ 51,002 51,758 52,477 53,094 80.4 80.5 80.5 80.6

25 to 54 ..................................................... 35,161 35,905 36,651 37,370 95.2 95.3 95.4 95.5

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 15,111 15,364 15,615 15,870 96.2 96.3 96.4 96.5

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 11,283 11,800 12,293 12,759 96.3 96.4 96.4 96.4

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 8,767 8,741 8,743 8,741 92.2 92.2 92.3 92.3

55 and over ................................................ 8,458 8,509 8,532 8,554 46.6 46.4 46.1 45.8

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 6,662 6,691 6,687 6,673 73.1 73.0 72.9 72.9

65 and over............................................ 1,796 1,818 1,845 1,881 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.7

Women, 16 and over.................................. 41,697 43,124 44,532 45,653 54.5 55.8 57.2 58.2

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 10,493 10,515 10,494 10,472 69.5 71.1 72.7 74.2

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 3,930 3,853 3,751 3,702 61.4 62.5 63.5 64.4

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 6,563 6,662 6,743 6,770 75.4 77.2 79.1 80.9

20 and over................................................ 37,767 39,271 40,781 41,951 53.8 55.3 56.7 57.7

25 to 54 ..................................................... 25,966 27,335 28,745 29,872 67.8 70.1 72.3 73.8

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 11,481 12,147 12,826 13,297 71.5 74.5 77.5 79.2

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 8,479 9,126 9,782 10,364 69.2 71.5 73.7 75.4

45 to 5 4 ................................................. 6,006 6,062 6,137 6,211 60.2 61.0 61.7 62.5

55 and over................................................ 5,238 5,274 5,293 5,309 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.2

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 4,213 4,239 4,241 4,239 41.9 42.0 42.1 42.3

65 and over............................................ 1,025 1,035 1,052 1,070 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7

Black and other

Total, 16 and over................................ 13,941 14,505 15,075 15,585 65.2 66.4 67.6 68.5

Men, 16 and over....................................... 7,147 7,373 7,596 7,811 74.1 74.9 75.6 76.2

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,714 1,743 1,765 1,783 66.1 67.3 68.5 69.4

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 590 595 597 601 47.9 49.2 50.5 51.4

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,124 1,148 1,168 1,182 82.5 83.1 83.8 84.5

20 and over ................................................ 6,557 6,778 6,999 7,210 78.0 78.5 78.9 79.3

25 to 54 ..................................................... 4,565 4,744 4,926 5,103 90.5 91.0 91.4 91.8

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,106 2,198 2,285 2,369 91.9 92.4 92.8 93.3

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 1,368 1,437 1,514 1,594 91.8 92.2 92.5 92.9

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,091 1,109 1,127 1,140 86.5 86.8 87.2 87.6

55 and over ................................................ 868 886 905 925 43.4 43.4 43.5 43.4

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 677 693 707 720 67.2 67.3 67.5 67.9

65 and over............................................ 191 193 198 205 19.2 19.1 19.1 19.1

Women, 16 and over.................................. 6,794 7,132 7,479 7,774 57.8 59.4 61.0 62.2

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,629 1,676 1,715 1,763 55.5 57.3 59.0 60.9

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 537 545 550 557 41.4 42.8 44.0 45.1

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,092 1,131 1,165 1,206 66.6 68.4 70.3 72.7

20 and over................................................ 6,257 6,587 6,929 7,217 59.9 61.4 63.0 64.0

25 to 54 ..................................................... 4,495 4,769 5,061 5,291 71.9 73.9 76.0 77.1

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,173 2,321 2,470 2,573 76.2 78.7 81.4 82.5

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 1,400 1,504 1,623 1,730 73.3 75.2 77.3 78.6

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 922 944 968 988 62.0 62.7 63.4 64.1

55 and over................................................ 670 687 703 720 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 534 549 562 573 44.6 44.8 45.0 45.3

65 and over............................................ 136 138 141 147 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.9

137

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor fo rce and labor fo rce participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000— C ontinued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

High growth path—Continued

Total, 16 and over............................. 120,449 122,631 124,603 126,453 128,123 69.0 69.5 70.1 70.6 71.1

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 24,887 24,757 24,503 24,195 23,916 76.0 76.7 77.6 78.7 79.7

20 and over............................................. 111,608 113,608 115,493 117,385 119,271 69.4 70.0 70.5 71.0 71.4

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 80,035 82,379 84,638 86,859 88,873 85.2 85.9 86.6 87.2 87.8

55 and over............................................. 15,527 15,495 15,462 15,399 15,334 32.5 32.2 31.9 31.7 31.4

Men, 16 and over.................................... 65,583 66,344 67,012 67,632 68,174 79.3 79.4 79.6 79.8 79.9

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 12,654 12,496 12,276 12,042 11,833 78.9 79.0 79.4 80.0 80.5

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,535 4,618 4,645 4,613 4,489 65.8 66.3 67.1 68.2 68.8

16 and 17........................................ 2,020 2,096 2,053 1,931 1,879 56.4 57.2 57.8 58.4 59.1

18 and 19........................................ 2,515 2,522 2,592 2,682 2,610 75.8 76.4 77.1 77.6 78.1

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 8,119 7,878 7,631 7,429 7,344 88.7 89.0 89.3 89.6 89.8

20 and over............................................. 61,048 61,726 62,367 63,019 63,685 80.5 80.6 80.7 80.8 80.9

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 43,441 44,384 45,298 46,196 46,988 95.1 95.2 95.3 95.4 95.5

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 18,539 18,757 18,901 18,978 18,934 96.2 96.3 96.4 96.6 96.7

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 9,411 9,403 9,364 9,309 9,173 95.5 95.6 95.8 95.9 96.0

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 9,128 9,354 9,537 9,669 9,761 96.9 97.0 97.1 97.3 97.4

35 to 4 4 .............................................. 14,902 15,416 15,805 16,313 16,873 96.1 96.2 96.2 96.3 96.4

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 8,355 8,332 8,485 8,681 8,916 96.7 96.8 96.9 97.0 97.1

40 to 44-,.......................................... 6,547 7,084 7,320 7,632 7,957 95.4 95.5 95.5 95.6 95.6

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 10,000 10,211 10,592 10,905 11,181 91.8 91.9 92.0 92.0 92.1

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 5,295 5,489 5,819 6,056 6,256 93.6 93.6 93.6 93.7 93.7

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 4,705 4,722 4,773 4,849 4,925 89.9 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.1

55 and over............................................. 9,488 9,464 9,438 9,394 9,353 45.2 44.9 44.5 44.1 43.8

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 7,364 7,294 7,232 7,157 7,090 72.3 72.3 72.3 72.2 72.2

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 4,323 4,276 4,222 4,168 4,108 82.3 82.3 82.3 82.4 82.4

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 3,041 3,018 3,010 2,989 2,982 61.7 61.7 61.7 61.7 61.7

65 and over......................................... 2,124 2,170 2,206 2,237 2,263 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.6

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 1,221 1,256 1,280 1,295. 1,299 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 587 591 596 605 621 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4

75 and over .................................... 316 323 330 337 343 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7

Women, 16 and over .............................. 54,866 56,287 57,591 58,821 59,949 59.7 60.7 61.5 62.4 63.2

16 to 24 .................................................. 12,233 12,261 12,227 12,153 12,083 73.3 74.5 75.9 77.4 78.9

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,306 4,405 4,465 4,455 4,363 61.9 62.8 64.1 65.5 66.5

16 and 17........................................ 1,853 1,930 1,903 1,802 1,761 53.2 54.2 55.2 56.1 57.1

18 and 19........................................ 2,453 2,475 2,562 2,653 2,602 70.7 71.7 72.9 73.9 74.8

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,927 7,856 7,762 7,698 7,720 59.5 60.5 61.3 62.2 63.0

20 and over............................................. 50,560 51,882 53,126 54,366 55,586 81.4 83.2 84.9 86.6 88.1

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 36,594 37,995 39,340 40,663 41,885 75.7 77.1 78.3 79.4 80.5

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 16,425 16,910 17,316 17,643 17,853 81.3 82.8 84.3 85.7 86.9

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 8,620 8,771 8,881 8,955 8,958 83.3 84.9 86.4 87.9 89.2

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 7,805 8,139 8,435 8,688 8,895 79.2 80.7 82.1 83.5 84.8

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 12,796 13,471 14,047 14,724 15,444 77.5 79.0 80.5 82.0 83.2

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 7,185 7,323 7,602 7,912 8,252 78.1 79.9 81.5 83.1 84.6

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 5,611 6,148 6,445 6,812 7,192 76.8 78.1 79.4 80.6 81.7

45 to 5 4 .............................................. 7,373 7,614 7,977 8,296 8,588 63.5 64.3 65.0 65.7 66.4

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 4,029 4,226 4,526 4,760 4,968 66.8 67.7 68.6 69.4 70.2

50 to 5 4 ..................................... ..... 3,344 3,388 3,451 3,536 3,620 59.9 60.4 60.9 61.3 61.8

55 and over............................................. 6,039 6,031 6,024 6,005 5,981 22.5 22.3 22.1 21.9 21.7

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 4,800 4,767 4,737 4,700 4,662 42.8 42.9 43.1 43.3 43.4

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 2,800 2,769 2,739 2,708 2,671 49.6 49.7 49.9 50.0 50.1

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 2,000 1,998 1,998 1,992 1,991 35.8 36.1 36.4 36.6 36.8

65 and over......................................... 1,239 1,264 1,287 1,305 1,319 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 767 788 803 811 813 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 . 14.9

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 309 310 313 319 327 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5

75 and o v e r.................................... 163 166 171 175 179 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

White

Total, 16 and over................................ 104,336 105,981 107,434 108,756 109,930 68.9 69.5 70.0 70.5 70.9

Men, 16 and ove r....................................... 57,551 58,081 58,529 58,918 59,245 79.7 79.7 79.9 80.0 80.1

Digitized for FRASER 

138

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

High growth path—Continued

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 10,857 10,676 10,440 10,182 9,953 80.5 80.6 80.9 81.5 81.9

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 3,922 3,974 3,973 3,913 3,775 68.5 68.9 69.7 70.7 71.1

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 6,935 6,702 6,467 6,269 6,178 89.4 89.6 89.8 90.0 90.2

20 and over................................................ 53,629 54,107 54,556 55,005 55,470 80.6 80.7 80.7 80.7 80.8

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 38,148 38,898 39,626 40,332 40,939 95.5 95.6 95.6 95.6 95.7

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 16,091 16,231 16,306 16,322 16,232 96.6 96.7 96.7 96.8 96.9

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 13,225 13,660 13,968 14,385 14,846 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.6 96.6

45 to 5 4 ................................................. 8,832 9,007 9,352 9,625 9,861 92.3 92.4 92.4 92.4 92.4

55 and over................................................ 8,546 8,507 8,463 8,404 8,353 45.4 45.0 44.7 44.2 43.9

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 6,632 6,553 6,479 6,394 6,320 72.8 72.8 72.7 72.7 72.7

65 and over............................................ 1,914 1,954 1,984 2,010 2,033 19.7 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.7

Women, 16 and over.................................. 46,785 47,900 48,905 49,838 50,685 59.1 60.1 60.9 61.8 62.5

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 10,424 10,404 10,325 10,208 10,100 75.5 76.7 78.1 79.5 80.9

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 3,733 3,803 3,834 3,801 3,696 65.3 66.2 67.5 68.8 69.8

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 6,691 6,601 ■ 6,491 6,407 6,404 82.7 84.4 86.1 87.6 89.1

20 and over................................................ 43,052 44,097 45,071 46,037 46,989 58.7 59.6 60.4 61.3 62.0

25 to 54 ..................................................... 31,056 32,212 33,318 34,402 35,391 75.3 76.7 77.9 79.1 80.2

25 to 3 4 ................................................. 13,751 14,138 14,456 14,707 14,856 80.9 82.5 84.0 85.4 86.8

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 10,954 11,522 11,988 12,546 13,142 77.1 78.7 80.3 81.7 83.1

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 6,351 6,552 6,874 7,149 7,393 63.3 64.0 64.8 65.5 66.2

55 and over................................................ 5,305 5,284 5,262 5,228 5,194 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.5 21.2

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 4,217 4,175 4,135 4,088 4,043 42.4 42.6 42.7 42.9 43.0

65 and over............................................ 1,088 1,109 1,127 1,140 1,151 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.6

B lack an d o th e r

Total, 16 and over............................... 16,113 16,650 17,169 17,697 18,193 69.3 70.1 70.9 71.7 72.5

Men, 16 and ove r....................................... 8,032 8,263 8,483 8,714 8,929 76.8 77.3 77.8 78.4 79.0

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,797 1,820 1,836 1,860 1,880 70.2 70.8 71.6 72.8 74.0

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 613 644 672 700 714 52.4 53.6 55.0 57.1 58.8

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 1,184 1,176 1,164 1,160 1,166 85.2 85.9 86.5 87.2 87.9

20 and over................................................ 7,419 7,619 7,811 8,014 8,215 79.8 80.3 80.6 81.1 81.4

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 5,293 5,486 5,672 5,864 6,049 92.3 92.7 93.2 93.6 94.0

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,448 2,526 2,595 2,656 2,702 93.8 94.2 94.6 95.2 95.6

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 1,677 1,756 1,837 1,928 2,027 93.4 93.8 94.2 94.5 94.9

45 to 54 ................................................. 1,168 1,204 1,240 1,280 1,320 88.1 88.5 88.8 89.3 89.6

55 and over................................................ 942 957 975 990 1,000 43.4 43.3 43.3 43.3 43.0

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 732 741 753 763 770 68.0 68.2 68.5 68.7 68.8

65 and over............................................ 210 216 222 227 230 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.1

Women, 16 and over.................................. 8,081 8,387 8,686 8,983 9,264 63.3 64.3 65.3 66.2 67.1

16 to 24 ..................................................... 1,809 1,857 1,902 1,945 1,983 62.8 64.3 66.1 67.9 69.8

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 573 602 631 654 667 46.4 47.7 49.3 51.1 52.8

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,236 1,255 1,271 1,291 1,316 75.0 77.3 79.5 81.6 83.5

20 and over................................................ 7,508 7,785 8,055 8,329 8,597 65.1 66.1 67.0 67.8 68.6

25 to 54 ..................................................... 5,538 5,783 6,022 6,261 6,494 78.3 79.3 80.3 81.3 82.1

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,674 2,772 2,860 2,936 2,997 83.7 84.8 85.8 86.8 87.8

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 1,842 1,949 2,059 2,178 2,302 79.9 81.1 82.3 83.4 84.3

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,022 1,062 1,103 1,147 1,195 64.9 65.6 66.4 67.1 67.8

55 and over................................................ 734 747 762 777 787 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.8

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 583 592 602 612 619 45.4 45.6 45.8 46.0 46.2

65 and over............................................ 151 155 160 165 168 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.8

Digitized for FRASER 

139

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
G-1. Civilian Saber force and Saber fore® participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—-Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

High growth path—Continued

Total, 16 and over............................. 129,726 131,092 132,391 133,438 134,753 71.5 71.9 72.1 72.2 72.4

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 23,768 23,589 23,509 23,331 23,375 80.4 80.9 81.4 81.3 81.9

20 and over............................................. 121,146 122,596 123,779 124,610 125,674 71.8 72.1 72.3 72.4 72.6

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 90,643 92,181 93,520 94,674 95,884 88.3 88.7 89.0 89.2 89.3

55 and over ............................................. 15,315 15,322 15,362 15,433 15,494 31.2 31.1 31.0 30.9 30.9

Men, 16 and ove r.................................... 68,736 69,238 69,739 70,270 70,835 80.1 80.2 80.3 80.4 80.5

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 11,724 11,609 11,548 11,495 11,463 81.0 81.4 81.7 81.8 82.0

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,335 4,281 4,331 4,432 4,553 69.1 69.4 70.1 70.6 71.1

16 and 1 7 ........................................ 1,907 1,939 1,968 2,040 2,137 59.9 60.6 61.3 62.0 62.7

18 and 19 ........................................ 2,428 2,342 2,363 2,392 2,416 78.5 79.0 79.6 80.1 80.6

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,389 7,328 7,217 7,063 6,910 90.1 90.4 90.7 90.9 91.2

20 and over............................................. 64,401 64,957 65,408 65,838 66,282 81.0 81.0 81.1 81.1 81.2

25 to 54 .................................................. 47,676 48,295 48,838 49,384 49,950 95.5 95.6 95.6 95.7 95.7

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 18,777 18,501 18,184 17,894 17,645 96.9 97.0 97.1 97.3 97.4

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 8,912 8,644 8,368 8,139 8,031 96.1 96.2 96.3 96.5 96.6

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 9,865 9,857 9,816 9,755 9,614 97.5 97.7 97.8 97.9 98.0

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 17,468 17,658 17,981 18,293 18,604 96.4 96.5 96.6 96.6 96.7

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 9,105 9,320 9,498 9,623 9,708 97.2 97.3 97.4 97.4 97.5

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 8,363 8,338 8,483 8,670 8,896 95.6 95.7 95.7 95.8 95.8

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 11,431 12,136 12,673 13,197 13,701 92.2 92.2 92.3 92.3 92.4

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 6,378 6,896 7,122 7,420 7,733 93.8 93.8 93.9 93.9 94.0

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 5,053 5,240 5,551 5,777 5,968 90.2 90.2 30.3 90.3 90.4

55 and over ............................................. 9,336 9,334 9,353 9,391 9,422 43.5 43.3 43.2 43.2 43.1

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 7,050 7,034 7,040 7,071 7,092 72.2 72.4 72.5 72.7 72.8

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 4,094 4,110 4,155 4,223 4,288 82.4 82.5 82.6 82.6 82.7

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 2,956 2,924 2,885 2,848 2,804 61.7 61.7 61.6 61.6 61.6

65 and over......................................... 2,286 2,300 2,313 2,320 2,330 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.2

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 1,302 1,292 1,289 1,281 1,279 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 635 654 665 673 677 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4

75 and over .................................... 349 354 359 366 374 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7

Women, 16 and over .............................. 60,990 61,854 62,652 63,168 63,918 63.9 64.4 64.8 64.9 65.2

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 12,044 11,980 11,961 11,836 11,912 79.8 80.5 81.1 80.9 81.8

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,245 4,215 4,281 4,396 4,526 67.1 67.9 68.9 69.7 70.5

16 and 17 ........................................ 1,794 1,833 1,868 1,944 2,042 58.2 59.2 60.2 61.1 62.0

18 and 19 ........................................ 2,451 2,382 2,413 2,452 2,484 75.7 76.6 77.6 78.5 79.4

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,799 7,765 7,680 7,440 7,386 88.9 89.5 90.0 89.3 90.7

20 and over............................................. 56,745 57,639 58,371 58,772 59,392 63.6 64.1 64.5 64.6 64.9

25 to 54 .................................................. 42,967 43,886 44,682 45,290 45,934 81.5 82.2 82.8 83.0 83.3

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 17,922 17,860 17,721 17,498 17,322 88.1 89.1 90.0 90.4 90.8

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 8,824 8,667 8,481 8,293 8,211 90.5 91.6 92.5 93.0 93.4

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 9,098 9,193 9,240 9,205 9,111 85.9 87.0 87.9 88.2 88.6

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 16,207 16,588 17,060 17,422 17,781 84.4 85.5 86.5 86.9 87.2

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 8,557 8,875 9,144 9,307 9,431 86.0 87.2 88.2 88.7 89.1

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 7,650 7,713 7,916 8,115 8,350 82.8 83.7 84.5 84.9 85.2

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 8,838 9,438 9,901 10,370 10,831 67.0 67.6 68.0 68.5 69.0

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 5,105 5,551 5,771 6,053 6,352 70.9 71.6 72.2 72.8 73.3

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 3,733 3,887 4,130 4,317 4,479 62.2 62.6 62.9 63.3 63.6

55 and over............................................. 5,979 5,988 6,009 6,042 6,072 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 4,650 4,653 4,670 4,703 4,731 43.6 43.8 44.0 44.3 44.5

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 2,673 2,692 2,726 2,777 2,827 50.2 50.3 50.4 50.5 50.5

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 1,977 1,961 1,944 1,926 1,904 37.1 37.3 37.4 37.6 37.8

65 and over......................................... 1,329 1,335 1,339 1,339 1,341 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.6

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 814 808 803 795 791 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 333 342 348 352 353 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5

75 and o ve r.................................... 182 185 188 192 197 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

W h ite

Total, 16 and over............................... 111,023 111,909 112,745 113,348 114,208 71.3 71.5 71.7 71.8 71.9

Men, 16 and ove r....................................... 59,582 59,869 60,157 60,472 60,817 80.2 80.2 80.2 80.3 80.3

Digitized for FRASER 

140

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

High growth path—Continued

16 to 24 ..................................................... 9,814 9,669 9,572 9,488 9,421 82.2 82.4 82.6 82.6 82.5

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 3,620 3,560 3,594 3,672 3,766 71.2 71.4 71.8 72.0 72.3

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 6,194 6,109 5,978 5,816 5,655 90.4 90.6 90.8 90.9 91.1

20 and over................................................ 55,962 56,309 56,563 56,800 57,051 80.8 80.8 80.8 80.8 80.9

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 41,446 41,896 42,277 42,656 43,051 95.7 95.7 95.7 95.7 95.7

25 to 34 ................................................... 16,043 15,756 15,432 15,134 14,871 97.0 97.1 97.1 97.2 97.3

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 15,331 15,430 15,666 15,896 16,129 96.6 96.6 96.7 96.7 96.7

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 10,072 10,710 11,179 11,626 12,051 92.4 92.5 92.5 92.5 92.5

55 and over ................................................ 8,322 8,304 8,308 8,328 8,345 43.6 43.4 43.3 43.2 43.1

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 6,272 6,244 6,239 6,256 6,269 72.7 72.8 72.9 73.1 73.2

65 and over............................................ 2,050 2,060 2,069 2,072 2,076 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.2

Women, 16 and over.................................. 51,441 52,040 52,588 52,876 53,391 63.2 63.6 64.0 64.0 64.3

16 to 24 ..................................................... 10,011 9,900 9,835 9,675 9,710 81.6 82.2 82.5 81.9 82.8

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 3,572 3,532 3,581 3,671 3,772 70.3 70.9 71.6 72.2 72.7

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 6,439 6,368 6,254 6,004 5,938 89.7 90.1 90.4 89.3 90.8

20 and over................................................ 47,869 48,508 49,007 49,205 49,619 62.7 63.1 63.5 63.5 63.7

25 to 54 ..................................................... 36,249 36,964 37,569 37,999 38,462 81.2 81.9 82.5 82.7 83.0

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 14,882 14,800 14,648 14,419 14,232 88.0 89.1 90.1 90.4 90.8

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 13,769 14,039 14,408 14,682 14,959 84.3 85.4 86.4 86.8 87.2

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 7,598 8,125 8,513 8,898 9,271 66.7 67.3 67.7 68.1 68.6

55 and over................................................ 5,181 5,176 5,184 5,202 5,219 21.1 21.0 21.0 20.9 20.9

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 4,024 4,016 4,023 4,044 4,063 43.2 43.4 43.6 43.9 44.1

65 and over............................................ 1,157 1,160 1,161 1,158 1,156 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3

Black and other

Total, 16 and over................................ 18,703 19,183 19,646 20,090 20,545 73.2 73.9 74.5 75.0 75.4

Men, 16 and ove r....................................... 9,154 9,369 9,582 9,798 10,018 79.6 80.2 80.7 81.2 81.7

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,910 1,940 1,976 2,007 2,042 75.2 76.4 77.6 78.6 79.6

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 715 721 737 760 787 60.0 61.3 62.9 64.5 65.9

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,195 1,219 1,239 1,247 1,255 88.6 89.4 90.0 90.8 91.5

20 and over................................................ 8,439 8,648 8,845 9,038 9,231 81.9 82.3 82.7 83.0 83.4

25 to 54 ..................................................... 6,230 6,399 6,561 6,728 6,899 94.4 94.8 95.2 95.6 96.0

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,734 2,745 2,752 2,760 2,774 96.1 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.0

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 2,137 2,228 2,315 2,397 2,475 95.3 95.7 96.1 96.4 96.8

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,359 1,426 1,494 1,571 1,650 90.1 90.4 90.8 91.2 91.7

55 and over................................................ 1,014 1,030 1,045 1,063 1,077 42.9 43.0 43.0 43.0 42.9

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 778 790 801 815 823 69.0 69.3 69.5 69.8 70.0

65 and over............................................ 236 240 244 248 254 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.0 19.1

Women, 16 and over.................................. 9,549 9,814 10,064 10,292 10,527 68.0 68.7 69.4 69.8 70.3

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 2,033 2,080 2,126 2,161 2,202 71.7 73.5 75.1 76.4 77.6

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 673 683 700 725 754 54.3 55.8 57.6 59.3 61.0

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,360 1,397 1,426 1,436 1,448 85.3 86.9 88.3 89.4 90.5

20 and over ................................................ 8,876 9,131 9,364 9,567 9,773 69.3 70.0 70.5 70.8 71.1

25 to 54 ..................................................... 6,718 6,922 7,113 7,291 7,472 82.9 83.6 84.2 84.5 84.9

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 3,040 3,060 3,073 3,079 3,090 88.6 89.3 89.9 90.4 90.8

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 2,438 2,549 2,652 2,740 2,822 85.3 86.1 86.8 87.2 87.5

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,240 1,313 1,388 1,472 1,560 68.5 69.3 70.1 70.9 71.6

55 and over................................................ 798 812 825 840 853 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.5

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 626 637 647 659 668 46.3 46.5 46.6 46.8 47.0

65 and over............................................ 172 175 178 181 185 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.6

141

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
0-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1996 . 1997 1998 1999 2000

High growth path—Continued

Total, 16 and over............................. 136,157 137,436 138,863 140,388 141,933 72.6 72.7 72.8 73.0 73.1

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 23,350 23,724 24,367 25,156 25,931 82.0 82.2 82.5 83.0 83.4

20 and over ............................................. 126,675 127,477 128,411 129,481 130,658 72.7 72.8 72.8 72.9 73.1

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 97,060 97,771 98,064 98,413 98,848 89.5 89.6 89.7 89.9 90.0

55 and over............................................. 15,747 15,941 16,432 16,819 17,154 31.1 31.2 31.7 32.0 32.3

Men, 16 and over.................................... 71,537 72,109 72,798 73,531 74,277 80.6 80.6 80.7 80.7 80.8

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 11,443 11,628 11,948 12,338 12,723 82.0 82.1 82.4 82.8 83.2

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,749 4,985 5,229 5,453 5,634 71.7 72.2 72.8 73.4 74.0

16 and 17........................................ 2,252 2,377 2,484 2,562 2,621 63.4 64.0 64.7 65.2 65.8

18 and 19........................................ 2,497 2,608 2,745 2,891 3,013 81.2 81.7 82.2 82.6 83.0

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 6,694 6,643 6,719 6,885 7,089 91.4 91.6 91.8 92.1 92.3

20 and over ............................................. 66,788 67,124 67,569 68,078 68,643 81.3 81.3 81.3 81.4 81.4

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 50,491 50,800 50,876 50,994 51,159 95.8 95.8 95.8 95.8 95.8

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 17,404 17,055 16,653 16,250 15,965 97.5 97.6 97.7 97.8 97.9

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 8,058 7,984 7,863 7,692 7,517 96.7 96.8 96.9 97.0 97.2

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 9,346 9,071 8,790 8,558 8,448 98.2. 98.3 98.4 98.5 98.6

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 18,880 19,071 19,192 19,246 19,182 96.8 96.8 96.9 97.0 97.0

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 9,802 9,787 9,742 9,676 9,533 97.6 97.7 97.8 97.9 98.0

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 9,078 9,284 9,450 9,570 9,649 95.9 95.9 96.0 96.0 96.1

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 14,207 14,674 15,031 15,498 16,012 92.4 92.4 92.5 92.5 92.5

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 8,126 8,104 8,244 8,425 8,643 94.0 94.1 94.1 94.2 94.2

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 6,081 6,570 6,787 7,073 7,369 90.4 90.5 90.5 90.6 90.6

55 and over............................................. 9,603 9,681 9,974 10,199 10,395 43.4 43.5 44.0 44.5 44.8

55 to 6 4 .............................................. 7,276 7,365 7,669 7,908 8,115 73.1 73.2 73.5 73.7 73.8

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 4,481 4,562 4,836 5,032 5,195 82.7 82.8 82.8 82.9 82.9

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 2,795 2,803 2,833 2,876 2,920 61.6 61.6 61.6 61.6 61.6

65 and over......................................... 2,327 2,316 2,305 2,291 2,280 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.7

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 1,269 1,254 1,238 1,222 1,206 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 677 673 671 667 666 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4

75 and over .................................... 381 389 396 402 408 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7

Women, 16 and over .............................. 64,620 65,327 66,065 66,857 67,656 65.4 65.6 65.8 66.0 66.2

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 11,907 12,096 12,419 12,818 13,208 82.0 82.3 82.7 83.1 83.6

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,733 4,974 5,223 5,454 5,641 • 71.3 72.0 72.8 73.6 74.3

16 and 17........................................ 2,160 2,285 2,394 2,474 2,536 63.0 63.8 64.6 65.3 66.0

18 and 19........................................ 2,573 2,689 2,829 2,980 3,105 80.2 81.0 81.7 82.4 82.9

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,174 7,122 7,196 7,364 7,567 91.0 91.3 91.7 91.9 92.2

20 and over............................................. 59,887 60,353 60,842 61,403 62,015 65.0 65.1 65.3 65.4 65.6

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 46,569 46,971 47,188 47,419 47,689 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.3 84.5

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 17,151 16,883 16,560 16,229 15,995 91.3 91.7 92.1 92.6 93.0

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 8,257 8,212 8,122 7,975 7,825 93.8 94.3 94.8 95.2 95.7

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 8,894 8,671 8,438 8,254 8,170 89.0 89.4 89.8 90.1 90.5

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 18,113 18,374 18,563 18,684 18,705 87.6 88.0 88.3 88.7 89.1

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 9,557 9,586 9,580 9,547 9,451 89.5 89.9 90.3 90.7 91.1

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 8,556 8,788 8,983 9,137 9,254 85.6 86.0 86.3 86.7 87.1

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 11,305 11,714 12,065 12,506 12,989 69.6 69.8 70.3 70.7 71.2

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 6,723 6,755 6,920 7,119 7,349 73.9 74.5 75.1 75.7 76.2

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 4,582 4,959 5,145 5,387 5,640 64.0 64.3 64.7 65.1 65.5

55 and over............................................. 6,144 6,260 6,458 6,620 6,759 21.6 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.6

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 4,809 4,933 5,139 5,310 5,459 44.7 44.9 45.1 45.3 45.4

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 2,900 3,005 3,182 3,311 3,419 50.6 50.7 50.7 50.8 50.9

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 1,909 1,928 1,957 1,999 2,040 37.9 38.1 38.2 38.4 38.5

65 and over......................................... 1,335 1,327 1,319 1,310 1,300 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.3

65 to 6 9 ........................................................... 781 771 762 752 741 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 353 351 349 346 344 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5

75 and o ve r.................................... 201 205 208 212 215 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

White

Total, 16 and over................................ 115,063 115,935 116,870 117,875 118,900 72.0 72.1 72.1 72.2 72.3

Men, 16 and ove r....................................... 61,205 61,621 62,065 62,544 63,032 80.3 80.3 80.2 80.2 80.3

142

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

High growth path—Continued

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 9,374 9,511 9,766 10,078 10,383 82.4 82.3 82.4 82.5 82.7

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 3,921 4,108 4,300 4,475 4,610 72.6 72.8 73.1 73.5 73.7

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 5,453 5,403 5,466 5,603 5,773 91.2 91.3 91.4 91.5 91.6

20 and over ................................................ 57,284 57,513 57,765 58,069 58,422 80.9 80.9 80.8 80.8 80.8

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 43,412 43,562 43,490 43,465 43,484 95.7 95.6 95.6 95.5 95.5

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 14,607 14,248 13,842 13,442 13,150 97.3 97.3 97.3 97.4 97.4

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 16,332 16,452 16,509 16,508 16,404 96.7 96.7 96.7 96.7 96.7

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 12,473 12,862 13,139 13,515 13,930 92.5 92.4 92.4 92.4 92.4

55 and over................................................ 8,419 8,548 8,809 9,001 9,165 43.2 43.5 44.1 44.5 44.8

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 6,349 6,492 6,767 6,976 7,154 73.4 73.5 73.8 73.9 74.0

65 and over............................................ 2,070 2,056 2,042 2,025 2,011 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.7

Women, 16 and over.................................. 53,858 54,314 54,805 55,331 55,868 64.5 64.6 64.7 64.9 65.1

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 9,675 9,811 10,065 10,376 10,678 82.8 82.8 83.0 83.2 83.4

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 3,938 4,129 4,327 4,505 4,644 73.3 73.7 74.2 74.7 75.0

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 5,737 5,682 5,738 5,871 6,034 90.9 91.0 91.1 91.2 91.3

20 and over................................................ 49,920 50,185 50,478 50,826 51,224 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.2 64.3

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 38,912 39,141 39,204 39,284 39,406 83.3 83.4 83.6 83.8 84.0

25 to 3 4 ................................................. 14,042 13,765 13,442 13,116 12,881 91.3 91.7 92.1 92.5 92.9

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 15,215 15,402 15(527 15,593 15,573 87.6 87.9 88.3 88.7 89.0

45 to 5 4 ................................................. 9,655 9,974 10,235 10,575 10,952 69.1 69.3 69.6 70.0 70.4

55 and over................................................ 5,271 5,362 5,536 5,671 5,784 21.0 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.1

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 4,123 4,225 4,409 4,556 4,681 44.3 44.5 44.7 44.9 45.1

65 and over............................................ 1,148 1,137 1,127 1,115 1,103 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0

Black and other

Total, 16 and over............................... 21,094 21,501 21,993 22,513 23,033 75.9 76.3 76.8 77.3 77.7

Men, 16 and over....................................... 10,332 10,488 10,733 10,987 11,245 82.2 82.7 83.2 83.7 84.2

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 2,069 2,117 2,182 2,260 2,340 80.5 81.5 82.7 83.9 85.3

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 828 877 929 978 1,024 67.6 69.4 71.4 73.2 75.2

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,241 1,240 1,253 1,282 1,316 92.3 93.0 93.6 94.4 95.2

20 and over................................................ 9,504 9,611 9,804 10,009 10,221 83.8 84.2 84.5 84.9 85.2

25 to 54 ..................................................... 7,079 7,238 7,386 7,529 7,675 96.4 96.7 97.1 97.5 97.9

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,797 2,807 2,811 2,808 2,815 98.4 98.9 99.4 99.9 100.4

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 2,548 2,619 2,683 2,738 2,778 97.2 97.6 98.0 98.4 98.8

45 to 5 4 ................................................. 1,734 1,812 1,892 1,983 2,082 92.1 92.5 92.9 93.3 93.7

55 and over................................................ 1,184 1,133 1,165 1,198 1,230 44.6 43.5 43.8 44.1 44.4

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 927 873 902 932 961 71.4 70.9 71.3 71.8 72.1

65 and over............................................ 257 260 263 266 269 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.8 18.7

Women, 16 and over.................................. 10,762 11,013 11,260 11,526 11,788 70.7 71.1 71.5 72.0 72.4

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 2,232 2,285 2,354 2,442 2,530 78.8 80.0 81.3 82.9 84.5

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 795 845 896 949 997 62.8 64.8 66.8 69.1 71.3

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,437 1,440 1,458 1,493 1,533 91.6 92.7 93.8 94.9 96.1

20 and over ................................................ 9,967 10,168 10,364 10,577 10,791 71.4 71.7 72.0 72.3 72.5

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 7,657 7,830 7,984 8,135 8,283 85.2 85.6 86.0 86.4 86.8

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 3,109 3,118 3,118 3,113 3,114 91.3 91.8 92.3 92.8 93.3

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 2,898 2,972 3,036 3,091 3,132 87.8 88.2 88.5 88.8 89.2

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,650 1,740 1,830 1,931 2,037 72.4 73.2 74.0 74.8 75.6

55 and over................................................ 873 898 922 949 975 25.6 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.1

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 686 708 730 754 778 47.2 47.4 47.5 47.8 47.8

65 and over............................................ 187 190 192 195 197 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.3

143

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
0=1. Civilian labor fore® and labor fore© participation rates by ag®, sen, and rac®, 1981 to 2000

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 1983 1984 1985

Low growth, path

Total, 16 and over............................. 107,722 109,149 110,456 111,706 64.2 64.4 64.5 64.6

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 24,912 24,645 24,285 23,922 70.4 70.9 71.4 71.7

20 and over ............................................. 98,570 100,247 101,854 103,283 64.7 64.8 64.9 65.0

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 68,219 70,019 71,838 73,604 78.9 79.2 79.6 80.0

55 and over............................................. 14,591 14,485 14,333 14,180 31.8 31.2 30.5 29.9

Men, 16 and over.................................... 61,275 61,731 62,119 62,458 77.1 76.9 76.6 76.3

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 13,161 12,952 12,702 12,445 75.8 76.0 76.1 76.1

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,782 4,630 4,453 4,344 62.5 62.8 62.8 62.8

16 and 17 ......................................... 1,969 1,897 1,859 1,858 52.2 52.4 52.7 52.9

18 and 19........................................ 2,813 2,733 2,594 2,486 72.6 72.8 72.8 73.0

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 8,379 8,322 8,249 8,101 86.2 86.1 85.9 S5.8

20 and over............................................. 56,493 57,101 57,666 58,114 78.6 78.3 77.9 77.5

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 39,302 40,074 40,851 41,584 93.6 93.4 93.2 93.0

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 17,008 17,278 17,539 17,796 94.5 94.2 94.0 93.7

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 8,825 8,979 9,085 9,149 94.2 94.1 93.9 93.8

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 8,183 8,299 8,454 8,647 94.8 94.4 94.0 93.7

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 12,543 13,087 13,617 14,116 95.0 94.8 94.6 94.4

35 to 3 9 .................................. ........ 6,961 7,178 7,473 7,777 95.3 95.1 94.9 94.7

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 5,582 5,909 6,144 6,339 94.6 94.4 94.3 94.2

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 9,751 9,709 9,695 9,672 90.6 90.3 90.0 89.8

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 4,905 4,945 5,012 5,078 92.7 92.4 92.2 92.0

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 4,846 4,764 4,683 4,594 88.5 88.2 87.8 87.4

55 and over............................................. 8,812 8,705 8,566 8,429 43.7 42.7 41.6 40.5

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 7,008 6,939 6,836 6,725 69.3 68.1 66.9 65.8

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 4,278 4,226 4,159 4,108 79.8 79.0 78.3 77.5

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 2,730 2,713 2,677 2,617 57.4 56.0 54.6 53.2

65 and over......................................... 1,804 1,766 1,730 1,704 18.0 17.3 16.7 16.1

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 1,034 1,009 989 980 26.9 26.0 25.1 24.3

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 518 510 500 488 17.9 17.4 16.8 16.3

75 and over .................................... 252 247 241 236 7.6 7.3 7.0 6.6

Women, 16 and o ve r.............................. 46,447 47,418 48,337 49,248 52.6 53.1 53.7 54.1

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 11,751 11,693 11,583 11,477 65.1 66.0 66.8 67.5

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,370 4,272 4,149 4,079 56.8 57.5 58.0 58.4

16 and 17........................................ 1,762 1,713 1,695 1,708 47.9 48.6 49.3 49.9

18 and 19........................................ 2,608 2,559 2,454 2,371 64.9 65.5 66.0 66.6

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,381 7,421 7,434 7,398 71.4 72.2 73.0 73.8

20 and over............................................. 42,077 43,146 44,188 45,169 52.2 52.7 53.3 53.8

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 28,917 29,945 30,987 32,020 64.9 65.9 66.8 67.7

25 to 3 4 .............................................. 12,685 13,125 13,556 13,988 67.1 68.2 69.2 70.3

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 6,817 7,064 7,276 7,459 69.3 70.5 71.6 72.8

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 5,868 6,061 6,280 6,529 64.7 65.7 66.7 67.6

35 to 4 4 .............................................. 9,437 9,998 10,563 11,121 66.7 67.7 68.7 69.8

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 5,211 5,466 5,785 6,124 66.6 67.7 68.8 70.0

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 4,226 4,532 4,778 4,997 66.8 67.7 68.6 69.6

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 6,795 6,822 6,868 6,911 59.3 59.6 59.9 60.2

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 3,483 3,549 3,637 3,726 61.8 62.3 62.8 63.3

■ 50 to 5 4 .......................................... 3,312 3,273 3,231 3,185 56.8 56.9 56.9 57.0

55 and over............ ;............................... 5,779 5,780 5,767 5,751 22.5 22.2 21.9 21.6

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 4,653 4,660 4,641 4,615 41.3 41.2 41.0 40.9

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 2,861 2,847 2,822 2,807 48.9 49.0 49.0 49.1

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 1,792 1,813 1,819 1,808 33.2 32.9 32.7 32.4

65 and over......................................... 1,126 1,120 1,126 1,136 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.4

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 716 715 720 731 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.5

70 to 7 4 .............................. ........... 283 282 281 278 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8

75 and over .................................... 127 123 125 127 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1

W h i t e

Total, 16 and over................................ 94,438 95,544 96,541 97,496 64.5 64.7 64.8 65.0

Men, 16 and ove r....................................... 54,435 54,773 55,049 55,287 77.9 77.7 77.5 77.2

144

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1932 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 1983 1984 1985

Low growth path—Continued

16 to 24 ..................................................... 11,579 11,384 11,156 10,923 78.4 78.8 79.0 79.2

16 to 19 ................................................. 4,262 4,127 3,970 3,879 66.4 66.9 67.2 67.4

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 7,317 7,257 7,186 7,044 87.6 87.6 87.6 87.6

20 and over................................................ 50,173 50,646 51,079 51,408 79.1 78.7 78.4 78.0

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 34,855 35,495 36,135 36,742 94.4 94.2 94.0 93.8

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 14,957 15,157 15,353 15,550 95.2 95.0 94.8 94.5

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 11,205 11,692 12,156 12,590 95.6 95.5 95.3 95.1

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 8,693 8,646 8,626 8,602 91.5 91.2 91.0 90.8

55 and over ................................................ 8,001 7,894 7,758 7,622 44.1 43.0 41.9 40.8

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 6,366 6,294 6,191 6,080 69.9 68.7 67.5 66.4

65 and over............................................ 1,635 1,600 1,567 1,542 18.1 17.4 16.8 16.2

Women, 16 and over.................................. 40,003 40,771 41,492 42,209. 52.3 52.8 53.3 53.8

16 to 24 ..................................................... 10,233 10,167 10,057 9,952 67.8 68.8 69.7 70.5

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 3,877 3,786 3,672 3,610 60.6 61.5 62.2 62.8

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 6,356 6,361 6,385 6,342 73.0 74.0 74.9 75.8

20 and over................................................ 36,126 36,985 37,820 38,599 51.5 52.0 52.6 53.1

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 24,645 25,488 26,341 27,187 64.4 65.3 66.3 67.2

25 to 3 4 ................................................. 10,641 10,984 11,324 11,668 66.2 67.4 68.4 69.5

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 8,101 8,585 9,063 9,531 66.2 67.2 68.3 69.4

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 5,903 5,919 5,954 5,988 59.2 59.5 59.9 60.3

55 and over................................................ 5,125 5,116 5,094 5,070 22.1 21.8 21.5 21.2

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 4,131 4,127 4,100 4,068 41.1 40.9 40.7 40.6

65 and over............................................ 994 989 994 1,002 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2

Black and other

Total, 16 and over................................ 13,284 13,605 13,915 14,210 62.1 62.3 62.4 62.4

Men, 16 and ove r....................................... 6,840 6,958 7,070 7,171 70.9 70.7 70.4 69.9

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,582 1,568 1,546 1,522 61.0 60.5 60.0 59.3

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 520 503 483 465 42.2 41.6 40.9 39.8

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,062 1,065 1,063 1,057 78.0 77.1 76.3 75.6

20 and over ................................................ 6,320 6,455 6,587 6,706 75.2 74.7 74.3 73.8

25 to 54 ..................................................... 4,447 4,579 4,716 4,842 88.1 87.8 87.5 87.1

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,051 2,121 2,186 2,246 89.5 89.2 88.8 88.5

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 1,338 1,395 1,461 1,526 89.7 89.5 89.3 89.0

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,058 1,063 1,069 1,070 83.8 83.2 82.7 82.2

55 and over ................................................ 811 811 808 807 40.5 39.7 38.8 37.8

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 642 645 645 645 63.7 62.6 61.6 60.8

65 and over............................................ 169 166 163 162 17.0 16.4 15.7 15.1

Women, 16 and over.................................. 6,444 6,647 6,845 7,039 54.9 55.4 55.9 56.3

16 to 24 ..................................................... 1,518 1,526 1,526 1,525 51.7 52.1 52.5 52.7

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 493 486 477 469 38.0 38.1 38.2 38.0

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,025 1,040 1,049 1,056 62.5 62.9 63.3 63.6

20 and over................................................ 5,951 6,161 6,368 6,570 57.0 57.4 57.9 58.3

25 to 5 4 ...................................................... 4,272 4,457 4,646 4,833 68.4 69.1 69.7 70.4

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,044 2,141 2,232 2,320 71.7 72.6 73.5 74.4

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 1,336 1,413 1,500 1,590 69.9 70.7 71.4 72.2

45 to 54 .................................................. 892 903 914 923 60.0 60.0 59.9 59.9

55 and over ................................................ 654 664 673 681 25.5 25.3 25.1 24.7

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 522 533 541 547 43.6 43.5 43.3 43.2

65 and over............................................ 132 131 132 134 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.0

145

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor for©® and labor fore® parSSeipation rafos by ag®, sax, and rae®, 1®@2 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

Low growth path—Continued

Total, 16 and over............................. 113,004 114,310 115,435 116,484 117,394 64.7 64.8 64.9 65.1 65.2

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 23,513 23,199 22,781 22,324 21,899 71.8 71.9 72.2 72.6 73.0

20 and over............................................. 104,580 105,777 106,880 108,028 109,205 65.1 65.1 65.2 65.3 65.4

25 to 5 4 ................................................... 75,509 77,366 79,145 80,903 82,485 80.3 80.7 80.9 81.2 81.5

55 and over............................................. 13,982 13,745 13,509 13,257 13,010 29.2 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.6

Men, 16 and ove r.................................... 62,815 63,179 63,461 63,708 63,888 76.0 75.6 75.4 75.2 74.9

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 12,160 11,933 11,655 11,364 11,099 75.8 75.4 75.4 75.5 75.5

16 to 1 9 .......................................... .... 4,328 4,373 4,370 4,309 4,158 62.8 62.8 63.2 63.7 63.8

16 and 17........................................ 1,902 1,954 1,895 1,762 1,697 53.1 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.4

18 and 19........................................ 2,426 2,419 2,475 2,547 2,461 73.1 73.3 73.6 73.7 73.7

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,832 7,560 7,285 7,055 6,941 85.6 85.4 85.2 85.1 84.9

20 and over............................................. 58,487 58,806 59,091 59,399 59,730 77.2 76.8 76.5 76.1 75.8

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 42,391 43,173 43,921 44,655 45,287 92.8 92.6 92.4 92.2 92.0

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 18,018 18,157 18,222 18,226 18,113 93.5 93.2 93.0 92.8 92.5

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 9,223 9,190 9,125 9,046 8,889 93.6 93.5 93.3 93.2 93.0

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 8,795 8,967 9,097 9,180 9,224 93.3 93.0 92.7 92.4 92.1

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 14,616 15,085 15,427 15,884 16,393 94.3 94.1 93.9 93.8 93.6

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 8,165 8,117 8,241 8,405 8,609 94.5 94.3 94.1 93.9 93.7

40 to 4 4 .............................. ............ 6,451 6,968 7,186 7,479 7,784 94.0 93.9 93.8 93.6 93.5

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 9,757 9,931 10,272 10,545 10,781 89.6 89.4 89.2 89.0 88.8

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 5,198 5,376 5,685 5,903 6,084 91.9 91.7 91.5 91.3 91.2

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 4,559 4,555 4,587 4,642 4,697 87.1 86.8 86.5 86.2 85.9

55 and over............................................. 8,264 8,073 7,885 7,689 7,502 39.4 38.3 37.2 36.1 35.1

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 6,591 6,426 6,272 6*113 5,963 64.7 63.7 62.7 61.7 60.7

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 4,037 3,955 3,870 3,785 3,698 76.8 76.1 75.5 74.8 74.2

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 2,554 2,471 2,402 2,328 2,265 51.8 50.5 49.2 48.0 46.9

65 and over......................................... 1,673 1,647 1,613 1,576 1,539 15.5 15.0 14.4 13.9 13.3

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 967 961 944 923 894 23.4 22.6 21.8 21.1 20.4

70 to 74 ................................... 476 463 452 444 442 15.7 15.2 14.7 14.2 13.8

75 and o ve r.................................... 230 223 217 209 203 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.4 5.1

Women, 16 and o ve r.............................. 50,189 51,131 51,974 52,776 53,506 54.6 55.1 55.5 56.0 56.4

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 11,353 11,266 11,126 10,960 10,800 68.0 68.5 69.1 69.8 70.5

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,096 4,160 4,185 4,147 4,031 58.9 59.4 60.1 61.0 61.4

16 and 17........................................ 1,764 1,823 1,783 1,675 1,624 50.6 51.2 51.7 52.2 52.7

18 and 19 *...................................... 2,332 2,337 2,402 2,472 2,407 67.2 67.7 68.3 68.8 69.2

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 7,257 7,106 6,941 6,813 6,769 74.5 75.2 75.9 76.6 77.3

20 and over............................................. 46,093 46,971 47,789 48,629 49,475 54.3 54.7 55.2 55.6 56.0

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 33,118 34,193 35,224 36,248 37,198 68.5 69.3 70.1 70.8 71.5

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 14,403 14,755 15,041 15,265 15,396 71.3 72.3 73.2 74.1 75.0

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 7,646 7,749 7,817 7,858 7,841 73.9 75.0 76.1 77.1 78.1

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 6,757 7,006 7,224 7,407 7,555 68.5 69.5 70.3 71.2 72.0

35 to 4 4 .............................................. 11,684 12,224 12,672 13,216 13,805 70.8 71.7 72.7 73.6 74.4

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 6,534 6,609 6,812 7,046 7,311 71.0 72.1 73.1 74.0 75.0

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 5,150 5,615 5,860 6,170 6,494 70.5 71.3 72.2 73.0 73.8

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 7,031 7,214 7,511 7,767 7,997 60.6 60.9 61.2 61.5 61.8

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 3,846 4,009 4,267 4,464 4,635 63.8 64.2 64.7 65.1 65.5

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 3,185 3,205 3,244 3,303 3,362 57.1 57.2 57.2 57.3 57.4

55 and over............................................. 5,718 5,672 5,624 5,568 5,508 21.3 21.0 20.7 20.4 20.0

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 4,572 4,511 4,455- 4,392 4,330 40.7 40.6 40.5 40.4 40.3

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 2,775 2,740 2,708 2,674 2,634 49.1 49.2 49.3 49.4 49.4

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 1,797 1,771 1,747 1,718 1,696 32.2 32.0 31.8 31.6 31.4

65 and over......................................... 1,146 1,161 1,169 1,176 1,178 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 740 753 760 762 758 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 276 275 275 277 280 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4

75 and over .................................... 130 133 134 137 140 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0

W h i t e

Total, 16 and over................................ 98,484 99,478 100,301 101,038 101,661 65.1 65.2 65.3 65.5 65.6

Men, 16 and over....................................... 55,539 55,797 55,977 56,115 56,197 76.9 76.6 76.4 76.2 76.0

140

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian iabor fo rce and iabor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000-—C ontinued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

Low growth path—Continued

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 10,668 10,466 10,214 9,942 9,699 79.1 79.0 79.2 79.5 79.8

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 3,874 3,918 3,913 3,850 3,709 67.7 68.0 68.7 69.6 69.9

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 6,794 6,548 6,301 6,092 5,990 87.5 87.5 87.5 87.5 87.5

20 and over................................................ 51,665 51,879 52,064 52,265 52,488 77.7 77.3 77.0 76.7 76.4

25 to 54 ..................................................... 37,410 38,054 38,671 39,271 39,775 93.7 93.5 93.3 93.1 93.0

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 15,717 15,802 15,824 15,792 15,656 94.3 94.1 93.9 93.7 93.5

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 13,022 13,428 13,705 14,089 14,518 95.0 94.8 94.7 94.6 94.4

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 8,671 8,824 9,142 9,390 9,601 90.7 90.5 90.3 90.2 90.0

55 and over................................................ 7,461 7,277 7,092 6,902 6,723 39.7 38.5 37.4 36.3 35.3

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 5,947 5,786 5,632 5,475 5,331 65.3 64.3 63.2 62.2 61.3

65 and over............................................ 1,514 1,491 1,460 1,427 1,392 15.6 15.1 14.5 14.0 13.5

Women, 16 and over.................................. 42,945 43,681 44,324 44,923 45,464 54.3 54.8 55.2 55.7 56.1

16 to 24 ..................................................... 9,831 9,745 9,606 9,440 9,284 71.2 71.8 72.6 73.6 74.4

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 3,628 3,684 3,700 3,657 3,545 63.4 64.1 65.1 66.2 66.9

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 6,203 6,061 5,906 5,783 5,739 76.6 77.5 78.3 79.1 79.9

20 and over................................................ 39,317 39,997 40,624 41,266 41,919 53.6 54.0 54.5 54.9 55.3

25 to 54 ..................................................... 28,084 28,961 29,799 30,629 31,389 68.1 68.9 69.7 70.4 7T.2

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 11,997 12,266 12,477 12,636 12,715 70.5 71.5 72.5 73.4 74.3

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 10,001 10,452 10,810 11,254 11,737 70.4 71.4 72.4 73.3 74.2

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 6,086 6,243 6,512 6,739 6,937 60.6 61.0 61.4 61.8 62.1

55 and over................................................ 5,030 4,975 4,919 4,854 4,791 20.9 20.6 20.3 19.9 19.6

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 4,019 3,953 3,891 3,822 3,758 40.4 40.3 40.2 40.1 40.0

65 and over............................................ 1,011 1,022 1,028 1,032 1,033 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9

B lack an d o th e r

Total, 16 and over................................ 14,520 14,832 15,134 15,446 15,733 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.6 62.7

Men, 16 and over....................................... 7,276 7,382 7,484 7,593 7,691 69.5 69.0 68.6 68.3 68.0

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,492 1,467 1,441 1,422 1,400 58.3 57.1 56.2 55.6 55.1

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 454 455 457 459 449 38.8 37.9 37.4 37.4 37.0

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,038 1,012 984 963 951 74.7 73.9 73.2 72.4 71.7

20 and over................................................ 6,822 6,927 7,027 7,134 7,242 73.4 73.0 72.5 72.2 71.8

25 to 54 ..................................................... 4,981 5,119 5,250 5,384 5,512 86.9 86.5 86.2 85.9 85.6

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,301 2,355 2,398 2,434 2,457 88.1 87.8 87.5 87.2 86.9

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 1,594 1,657 1,722 1,795 1,875 88.8 88.5 88.3 88.0 87.7

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,086 1,107 1,130 1,155 1,180 81.9 81.3 80.9 80.5 80.1

55 and over................................................ 803 796 793 787 779 37.0 36.0 35.2 34.4 33.5

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 644 640 640 638 632 59.9 58.9 58.2 57.4 56.4

65 and over............................................ 159 156 153 149 147 14.5 13.9 13.3 12.6 12.2

Women, 16 and over.................................. 7,244 7,450 7,650 7,853 8,042 56.7 57.1 57.5 57.9 58.3

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,522 1,521 1,520 1,520 1,516 52.8 52.7 52.8 53.1 53.4

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 468 476 485 490 486 37.9 37.7 37.9 38.3 38.4

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,054 1,045 1,035 1,030 1,030 64.0 64.3 64.7 65.1 65.4

20 and over ................................................ 6,776 6,974 7,165 7,363 7,556 58.7 59.2 59.6 60.0 60.3

25 to 54 ..................................................... 5,034 5,232 5,425 5,619 5,809 71.2 71.8 72.4 72.9 73.5

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,406 2,489 2,564 2,629 2,681 75.3 76.1 77.0 77.8 78.5

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 1,683 1,772 1,862 1,962 2,068 73.0 73.7 74.4 75.1 75.8

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 945 971 999 1,028 1,000 60.0 60.0 60.1 60.2 60.2

55 and over ................................................ 688 697 705 714 717 24.4 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.5

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 553 558 564 570 572 43.1 43.0 42.9 42.9 42.7

65 and over............................................ 135 139 141 144 145 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.5

Digitized for FRASER 

147

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Low growth path—Continued

Total, 16 and over............................. 118,330 119,133 119,933 120,781 121,684 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.4 65.4

16-to 2 4 .................................................. 21,656 21,409 21,260 21,118 21,001 73.2 73.4 73.6 73.6 73.6

20 and over............................................. 110,455 111,388 112,130 112,826 113,553 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.6

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 83,852 85,056 86,106 87,163 88,242 81.7 81.8 82.0 82.1 82.2

55 and over............................................. 12,822 12,668 12,567 12,500 12,441 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.1 24.8

Men, 16 and over.................................... 64,090 64,250 64,428 64,647 64,918 74.7 74.4 74.2 74.0 73.7

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 10,930 10,761 10,645 10,538 10,450 75.5 75.4 75.3 75.0 74.7

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 3,981 3,903 3,925 3,994 4,078 63.4 63.3 63.5 63.6 63.7

16 and 17........................................ 1,708 1,723 1,737 1,788 1,859 53.6 53.8 54.1 54.4 54.6

18 and 19 ........................................ 2,273 2,180 2,188 2,206 2,219 73.5 73.5 73.7 73.9 74.1

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 6,949 6,858 6,720 6,544 6,372 84.8 84.6 84.4 84.2 84.1

20 and over............................................. 60,109 60,347 60,503 60,653 60,840 75.6 75.3 75.0 74.8 74.5

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 45,815 46,279 46,673 47,078 47,507 91.8 91.6 91.4 91.2 91.0

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 17,893 17,565 17,202 16,869 16,583 92.3 92.1 91.9 91.7 91.5

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 8,613 8,332 8,045 7,804 7,682 92.9 92.8 92.6 92.5 92.4

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 9,280 9,233 9,157 9,065 8,901 91.8 91.5 91.2 91.0 90.8

35 to 4 4 .............................................. 16,933 17,075 17,348 17,614 17,880 93.5 93.3 93.2 93.1 93.0

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 8,768 8,950 9,097 9,194 9,254 93.6 93.4 93.3 93.1 93.0

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 8,165 8,125 8,251 8,420 8,626 93.4 93.2 93.1 93.0 92.9

45 to 5 4 .............................................. 10,989 11,639 12,123 12,595 13,044 88.6 88.5 88.3 88.1 87.9

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 6,189 6,679 6,885 7,159 7,446 91.0 90.9 90.8 90.6 90.5

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 4,800 4,960 5,238 5,436 5,598 85.7 85.4 85.2 85.0 84.8

55 and over............................................. 7,345 7,210 7,110 7,031 6,961 34.2 33.5 32.9 32.3 31.8

55 to 6 4 .............................................. 5,847 5,757 5,695 5,659 5,626 59.9 59.2 58.6 58.2 57.8

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 3,655 3,639 3,651 3,683 3,717 73.6 73.1 72.6 72.1 71.7

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 2,192 2,118 2,044 1,976 1,909 45.7 44.7 43.7 42.8 41.9

65 and over......................................... 1,498 1,453 1,415 1,372 1,335 12.8 12.3 11.9 11.4 11.0

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 865 830 802 772 749 19.7 19.0 18.4 17.8 17.3

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 438 436 432 425 415 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.2 11.9

75 and over .................................... 195 187 181 175 171 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0

Women, 16 and over .............................. 54,240 54,883 55,505 56,134 56,766 56.8 57.1 57.4 57.7 57.9

16 to 24 .................................................. 10,726 10,648 10,615 10,580 10,551 71.1 71.5 72.0 72.3 72.5

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 3,894 3,842 3,878 3,961 4,053 61.6 61.9 62.4 62.8 63.1

16 and 17........................................ 1,643 1,668 1,689 1,748 1,823 53.3 53.8 54.4 55.0 55.4

18 and 19........................................ 2,251 2,174 2,189 2,213 2,230 69.5 69.9 70.4 70.8 71.2

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 6,832 6,806 6,737 6,619 6,498 77.9 78.5 79.0 79.4 79.8

20 and over............................................. 50,346 51,041 51,627 52,173 52,713 56.5 56.8 57.1 57.3 57.6

25 to 54 .................................................. 38,037 38,777 39,433 40,085 40,735 72.1 72.6 73.1 73.5 73.9

25 to 3 4 .............................................. 15,413 15,333 15,200 15,071 14,971 75.8 76.5 77.2 77.9 78.5

25 to 2 9 ................................. ......... 7,709 7,563 7,398 7,267 7,220 79.0 79.9 80.7 81.5 82.1

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 7,704 7,770 7,802 7,804 7,751 72.8 73.5 74.2 74.8 75.4

35 to 4 4 .............................................. 14,434 14,735 15,131 15,517 15,887 75.2 76.0 76.7 77.4 77.9

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 7,547 7,804 8,024 8,204 8,341 75.8 76.7 77.4 78.1 78.8

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 6,887 6,931 7,107 7,313 7,546 74.5 75.2 75.9 76.5 77.0

45 to 54 ............................................... 8,190 8,709 9,102 9,497 9,877 62.0 62.4 62.5 62.7 62.9

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 4,743 5,139 5,325 5,568 5,821 65.9 66.3 66.6 66.9 67.2

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 3,447 3,570 3,777 3,929 4,056 57.4 57.5 57.5 57.6 57.6

55 and over............................................. 5,477 5,458 5,457 5,469 5,480 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.4

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 4,298 4,283 4,286 4,305 4,320 40.3 40.3 40.4 40.5 40.6

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 2,633 2,650 2,682 2,730 2,777 49.4 49.5 49.5 49.6 49.6

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 1,665 1,633 1,604 1,575 1,543 31.2 31.0 30.9 30.7 30.6

65 and over......................................... 1,179 1,175 1,171 1,164 1,160 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.6

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 753 742 733 721 714 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.5

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 283 288 291 292 292 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2

75 and over .................................... 143 145 147 151 154 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

White

Total, 16 and over............................... 102,303 102,829 103,369 103,957 104,604 65.7 65.7 65.8 65.8 65.9

Men, 16 and over....................................... 56,297 56,363 56,449 56,577 56,752 75.7 75.5 75.3 75.1 74.9

148

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian iabor fore© and labor force participation rates by age, seu, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Low growth path—Continued

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 9,541 9,383 9,274 9,180 9,103 79.9 80.0 80.0 79.9 79.7

16 to 1 9 ................................................. 3,550 3,487 3,516 3,589 3,676 69.8 69.9 70.2 70.4 70.6

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 5,991 5,896 5,758 5,591 5,427 87.5 87.5 87.4 87.4 87.4

20 and over ................................................ 52,747 52,876 52,933 52,988 53,076 76.2 75.9 75.6 75.4 75.2

25 to 5 4 ................ :.................................... 40,182 40,536 40,828 41,126 41,447 92.8 92.6 92.4 92.2 92.1

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 15,427 15,107 14,757 14,435 14,155 93.3 93.1 92.9 92.7 92.6

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 14,969 15,041 15,248 15,452 15,661 94.3 94.2 94.1 94.0 93.9

45 to 5 4 ................................................. 9,786 10,388 10,823 11,239 11,631 89.8 89.7 89.5 89.4 89.2

55 and over................................................ 6,574 6,444 6,347 6,271 6,202 34.4 33.7 33.0 32.5 32.1

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 5,219 5,130 5,069 5,032 4,999 60.5 59.8 59.2 58.8 58.4

65 and over............................................ 1,355 1,314 1,278 1,239 1,203 13.0 12.4 12.0 11.6 11.2

Women, 16 and over.................................. 46,006 46,466 46,920 47,380 47,852 56.5 56.8 57.1 57.4 57.6

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 9,204 9,119 9,080 9,043 9,013 75.1 75.7 76.2 76.6 76.9

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 3,419 3,374 3,413 3,493 3,583 67.3 67.7 68.3 68.7 69.1

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 5,785 5,745 5,667 5,550 5,430 80.6 81.3 81.9 82.5 83.0

20 and over ................................................ 42,587 43,092 43,507 43,887 44,269 55.8 56.1 56.4 56.6 56.9

25 to 54 ..................................................... 32,048 32,621 33,123 33,619 34,118 71.8 72.3 72.8 73.2 73.6

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 12,694 12,594 12,447 12,307 12,193 75.1 75.8 76.5 77.2 77.8

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 12,252 12,458 12,766 13,066 13,360 75.0 75.8 76.6 77.2 77.9

45 to 5 4 ................................................. 7,102 7,569 7,910 8,246 8,565 62.3 62.7 62.9 63.1 63.3

55 and over ................................................ 4,754 4,726 4,717 4,718 4,721 19.4 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.9

55 to 6 4 ................................................. 3,723 3,701 3,697 3,708 3,717 40.0 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.3

65 and over............................................ 1,031 1,025 1,020 1,010 1,004 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4

Black and other

Total, 16 and over............................... 16,027 16,304 16,564 16,824 17,080 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.7

Men, 16 and o ve r....................................... 7,793 7,887 7,979 8,070 8,166 67.8 67.5 67.2 66.9 66.6

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,389 1,378 1,371 1,358 1,347 54.7 54.3 53.8 53.2 52.5

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 431 416 409 405 402 36.2 35.4 34.9 34.4 33.7

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 958 962 962 953 945 71.1 70.5 69.9 69.4 68.9

20 and over ................................................ 7,362 7,471 7,570 7,665 7,764 71.4 71.1 70.8 70.4 70.2

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 5,633 5,743 5,845 5,952 6,060 85.4 85.1 84.8 84.5 84.3

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,466 2,458 2,445 2,434 2,428 86.7 86.4 86.2 85.9 85.7

35 to 4 4 ................................................. 1,964 2,034 2,100 2,162 2,219 87.6 87.3 87.1 87.0 86.8

45 to 5 4 ................................................. i-1,203 1,251 1,300 1,356 1,413 79.7 79.3 79.0 78.7 78.5

55 and over................................................ 771 766 763 760 759 32.7 32.0 31.4 30.8 30.3

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 628 627 626 627 627 55.7 55.0 54.3 53.7 53.4

65 and over............................................ 143 139 137 133 132 11.6 11.1 10.7 10.2 9.9

Women, 16 and over.................................. 8,234 8,417 8,585 8,754 8,914 58.6 59.0 59.2 59.4 59.5

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,522 1,529 1,535 1,537 1,538 53.7 54.0 54.2 54.3 54.2

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 475 468 465 468 470 38.3 38.3 38.3 38.3 38.0

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,047 1,061 1,070 1,069 1,068 65.7 66.0 66.3 66.5 66.8

20 and over ................................................ 7,759 7,949 8,120 8,286 8,444 60.6 60.9 61.1 61.3 61.4

25 to 54 ..................................................... 5,989 6,156 6,310 6,466 6,617 73.9 74.3 74.7 75.0 75.2

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,719 2,739 2,753 2,764 2,778 79.2 79.9 80.6 81.1 81.7

35 to 44 .................................................. 2,182 2,277 2,365 2,451 2,527 76.3 76.9 77.4 78.0 78.4

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,088 1,140 1,192 1,251 1,312 60.1 60.2 60.2 60.2 60.2

55 and over................................................ 723 732 740 751 759 23.3 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.7

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 575 582 589 597 603 42.5 42.5 42.4 42.4 42.5

65 and over............................................ 148 150 151 154 156 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.2 8.1

Digitized for FRASER 

149

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C M . Clviliars labor fo rce and labor fo rce participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000— C ontinued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Low growth path—Continued

Total, 16 and over............................. 122,749 123,680 124,707 125,797 126,875 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.4

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 20,913 21,188 21,705 22,352 22,980 73.5 73.4 73.5 73.7 73.9

20 and over............................................. 114,301 114,851 115,484 116,216 117,018 65.6 65.6 65.5 65.5 65.4

25 to 5 4 ............. ..................................... 89,283 89,852 90,015 90,193 90,414 82.3 82.3 82.4 82.4 82.3

55 and over............................................. 12,553 12,640 12,987 13,252 13,481 24.8 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.4

Men, 16 and over.................................... 65,322 65,629 66,040 66,511 67,017 73.6 73.4 73.2 73.0 72.9

16 to 2 4 .................................................. 10,375 10,497 10,746 11,062 11,374 74.4 74.2 74.1 74.2 74.4

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,231 4,421 4,618 4,796 4,935 63.8 64.0 64.3 64.6 64.8

16 and 17 ......................................... 1,946 2,043 2,121 2,173 2,207 54.8 55.0 55.2 55.3 55.4

18 and 19........................................ 2,285 2,378 2,497 2,623 2,728 74.3 74.5 74.8 75.0 75.2

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 6,144 6,076 6,128 6,266 6,439 83.9 83.8 83.8 83.8 83.8

20 and over............................................. 61,091 61,208 61,422 61,715 62,082 74.3 74.1 73.9 73.8 73.7

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 47,927 48,117 48,102 48,129 48,210 90.9 90.7 90.6 90.4 90.3

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 16,313 15,945 15,530 15,118 14,821 91.4 91.2 91.1 91.0 90.9

25 to 2 9 ........................................... 7,691 7,603 7,471 7,292 7,112 92.3 92.2 92.1 92.0 91.9

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 8,622 8,342 8,059 7,826 7,709 90.6 90.4 90.2 90.1 90.0

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 18,114 18,266 18,356 18,381 18,297 92.8 92.7 92.7 92.6 92.5

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 9,324 9,291 9,231 9,153 9,003 92.9 92.8 92.7 92.6 92.5

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 8,790 8,975 9,125 9,228 9,294 92.8 92.7 92.7 92.6 92.6

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 13,500 13,906 14,216 14,630 15,092 87.8 87.6 87.4 87.3 87.2

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 7,810 7,771 7,893 8,054 8,253 90.4 90.2 90.1 90.0 90.0

50 to 5 4 ........................................... 5,690 6,135 6,323 6,576 6,839 84.6 84.5 84.3 84.2 84.1

55 and over............................................. 7,020 7,015 7,192 7,320 7,433 31.7 31.5 31.8 31.9 32.0

55 to 6 4 ............................................... 5,722 5,754 5,964 6,123 6,259 57.5 57.2 57.1 57.0 56.9

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 3,853 3,909 4,125 4,275 4,398 71.1 70.9 70.6 70.4 70.2

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 1,869 1,845 1,839 1,848 1,861 41.2 40.5 40.0 39.6 39.3

65 and over......................................... 1,298 1,261 1,228 1,197 1,174 10.7 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.6

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 726 703 682 662 646 16.9 16.6 16.3 16.0 15.8

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 406 395 387 378 373 11.6 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.9

75 and over .................................... 166 163 159 157 155 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3

Women, 16 and over ............................... 57,427 58,051 58,667 59,286 59,858 58.2 58.3 58.4 58.5 58.6

16 tp 2 4 .................................................. 10,538 10,691 10,959 11,290 11,606 72.6 72.7 73.0 73.2 73.5

16 to 1 9 ............................................... 4,217 4,408 4,605 4,785 4,922 63.5 63.8 64.2 64.6 64.9

16 and 17........................................ 1 ,9 1 7 2 ,0 1 7 2 ,1 0 0 2,156 2,194 55.9 56.3 56.6 56.9 57.1

18 and 19........................................ 2,300 2,391 2,505 2,629 2,728 71.7 72.0 72.3 72.7 72.9

20 to 2 4 ............................................... 6,321 6,283 6,354 6,505 6,684 80.2 80.6 80.9 81.2 81.5

20 and over............................................. 53,210 53,643 54,062 54,501 54,936 57.8 57.9 58.0 58.1 58.1

25 to 5 4 .................................................. 41,356 41,735 41,913 42,064 42,204 74.2 74.4 74.6 74.7 74.8

25 to 3 4 ............................................... 14,868 14,664 14,397 14,109 13,886 79.1 79.7 80.1 80.5 80.7

25 to 2 9 .......................................... 7,280 7,253 7,177 7,045 6,901 82.7 83.3 83.7 84.1 84.4

30 to 3 4 ........................................... 7,588 7,411 7,220 7,064 6,985 75.9 76.4 76.8 77.2 77.4

35 to 4 4 ............................................... 16,225 16,487 16,671 16,778 16,777 78.5 78.9 79.3 79.7 79.9

35 to 3 9 ........................................... 8,476 8,518 8,519 8,489 8,394 79.4 79.9 80.3 80.7 80.9

40 to 4 4 ........................................... 7,749 7,969 8,152 8,289 8,383 77.5 78.0 78.3 78.6 78.9

45 to 5 4 ............................................... 10,263 10,584 10,845 11,177 11,541 63.1 63.1 63.2 63.2 63.2

45 to 4 9 ........................................... 6,135 6,136 6,255 6,398 6,566 67.5 67.7 67.9 68.0 68.1

50 to 5 4 .................................. ........ 4,128 4,448 4,590 4,779 4,975 57.7 57.7 57.7 57.8 57.8

55 and over..................................... ....... 5,533 5,625 5,795 5,932 6,048 19.4 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.2

55 to 6 4 ..................................... ......... 4,382 4,485 4,667 4,813 4,939 40.7 40.8 41.0 41.1 41.1

55 to 5 9 ........................................... 2,848 2,948 3,118 3,241 3,344 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.8

60 to 6 4 ........................................... 1,534 1,537 1,549 1,572 1,595 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.2 30.1

65 and over......................................... 1,151 1,140 1,128 1,119 1,109 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2

65 to 6 9 ........................................... 702 690 679 668 657 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.2

70 to 7 4 ........................................... 292 290 287 285 284 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2

75 and over .................................... 157 160 162 166 168 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

White

Total, 16 and over................................ 105,334 106,064 106,826 107,643 108,450 65.9 65.9 65.9 66.0 66.0

Men, 16 and ove r....................................... 56,986 57,250 57,547 57,898 58,275 74.7 74.6 74.4 74.3 74.2

150

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
C-1. Civilian labor force and labor force participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1982 to 2000—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and race

Civilian labor force Labor force particpation rate

Number Percent

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Low growth path—Continued

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 9,048 9,173 9,413 9,708 9,998 79.5 79.4 79.4 79.5 79.6

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 3,824 4,004 4,190 4,358 4,489 70.8 71.0 71.3 71.5 71.8

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 5,224 5,169 5,223 5,350 5,509 87.4 87.4 87.4 87.4 87.4

20 and over................................................ 53,162 53,246 53,357 53,540 53,786 75.0 74.9 74.7 74.5 74.4

25 to 54 ..................................................... 41,749 41,844 41,740 41,686 41,677 92.0 91.8 91.7 91.6 91.5

25 to 3 4 ................................................. 13,881 13,521 13,119 12,725 12,435 92.5 92.4 92.3 92.2 92.1

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 15,842 15,945 15,990 15,981 15,873 93.8 93.7 93.7 93.6 93.6

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 12,026 12,378 12,631 12,980 13,369 89.2 88.9 88.8 88.7 88.6

55 and over ................................................ 6,189 6,233 6,394 6,504 6,600 31.8 31.7 32.0 32.2 32.3

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 5,023 5,105 5,300 5,441 5,560 58.0 57.8 57.8 57.6 57.5

65 and over............................................ 1,166 1,128 1,094 1,063 1,040 10.8 10.4 10.1 9.9 9.7

Women, 16 and over.................................. 48,348 48,814 49,279 49,745 50,175 57.9 58.1 58.2 58.3 58.4

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 9,008 9,153 9,404 9,705 9,993 77.1 77.3 77.5 77.8 78.1

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 3,736 3,912 4,094 4,259 4,386 69.5 69.9 70.2 70.6 70.9

20 to 2 4 ................................................. 5,272 5,241 5,310 5,446 5,607 83.5 83.9 84.3 84.6 84.9

20 and over................................................ 44,612 44,902 45,185 45,486 45,789 57.1 57.2 57.3 57.4 57.5

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 34,584 34,830 34,895 34,945 34,993 74.0 74.2 74.4 74.6 74.6

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 12,071 11,861 11,597 11,319 11,102 78.4 79.0 79.5 79.8 80.1

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 13,626 13,819 13,945 14,004 13,971 78.4 78.9 79.3 79.6 79.9

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 8,887 9,150 9,353 9,622 9,920 63.6 63.5 63.6 63.7 63.8

55 and over................................................ 4,756 4,831 4,980 5,095 5,189 19.0 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.8

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 3,764 3,850 4,013 4,139 4,244 40.4 40.5 40.7 40.8 40.9

65 and over............................................ 992 981 967 956 945 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0

Black and other

Total, 16 and over............................... 17,415 17,616 17,881 18,154 18,425 62.6 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.2

Men, 16 and over....................................... 8,336 8,379 8,493 8,613 8,742 66.3 66.1' 65.8 65.6 65.5

16 to 2 4 ..................................................... 1,327 1,324 1,333 1,354 1,376 51.7 51.0 50.5 50.3 50.2

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 407 417 428 438 446 33.3 33.0 32.9 32.8 32.8

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 920 907 905 916 930 68.4 68.0 67.6 67.5 67.3

20 and over................................................ 7,929 7,962 8,065 8,175 8,296 69.9 69.7 69.5 69.3 69.2

25 to 5 4 ..................................................... 6,178 6,273 6,362 6,443 6,533 84.1 83.8 83.7 83.4 83.3

25 to 3 4 .........................................;....... 2,432 2,424 2,411 2,393 2,386 85.6 85.4 85.2 85.1 85.1

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 2,272 2,321 2,366 2,400 2,424 86.7 86.5 86.4 86.2 86.2

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,474 1,528 1,585 1,650 1,723 78.3 78.0 77.8 77.6 77.5

55 and over................................................ 831 782 798 816 833 31.3 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 699 649 664 682 699 53.8 52.7 52.5 52.5 52.4

65 and over............................................ 132 133 134 134 134 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.3

Women, 16 and over.................................. 9,079 9,237 9,388 9,541 9,683 59.6 59.6 59.6 59.6 59.5

16 to 24 ...................................................... 1,530 1,538 1,555 1,585 1,613 54.0 53.8 53.7 53.8 53.9

16 to 1 9 .................................................. 481 496 511 526 536 38.0 38.0 38.1 38.3 38.3

20 to 2 4 .................................................. 1,049 1,042 1,044 1,059 1,077 66.9 67.1 67.2 67.3 67.5

20 and over................................................ 8,598 8,741 8,877 9,015 9,147 61.6 61.6 61.6 61.6 61.5

25 to 54 ..................................................... 6,772 6,905 7,018 7,119 7,211 75.4 75.5 75.6 75.6 75.6

25 to 3 4 .................................................. 2,797 2,803 2,800 2,790 2,784 82.1 82.6 82.9 83.2 83.4

35 to 4 4 .................................................. 2,599 2,668 2,726 2,774 2,806 78.8 79.1 79.5 79.7 79.9

45 to 5 4 .................................................. 1,376 1,434 1,492 1,555 1,621 60.4 60.3 60.3 60.2 60.2

55 and over ................................................ 777 794 815 837 859 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.0

55 to 6 4 .................................................. 618 635 654 674 695 42.5 42.5 42.6 42.7 42.7

65 and over............................................ 159 159 161 163 164 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8

: 1982

151

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