United States Department of Agriculture

NORTHWEST

FOREST PLAN

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land 

Management Within the Northwest 

Forest Plan Area

Executive Summary

Forest 

Service

Pacific Northwest

Research Station

General Technical Report

PNW-GTR-970

August

2018
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Technical Coordinators

Thomas A. Spies is a senior scientist emeritus, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, 

Corvallis, OR 97331; Peter A. Stine is research program manager and biogeographer (retired), U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest 

Research Station, and is a research associate, John Muir Institute for the Environment, University of California–Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616; Rebecca 

Gravenmier is a science coordinator, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 1220 SW 3rd Avenue, Portland, OR 

97204; Jonathan W. Long is an ecologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 1731 Research Park Dr., Davis, CA 

95618; Matthew J. Reilly is a postdoctoral researcher, Humboldt State University, 

Department of Biological Sciences, 1 Harpst Street, Arcata, CA 95521; Rhonda 

Mazza is a science writer, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station, 1220 SW 3rd Avenue, Portland, OR 97204.

Cover photos: Upper left: coho spawning on the Salmon River; photo by Bureau 

of Land Management. Upper middle: a typical stream in the Cispus River watershed, Washington; photo by Alanna Wong. Upper right: a northern spotted owl in 

the McKenzie River Basin in Oregon; photo by John and Karen Hollingsworth, 

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Middle left: prescribed burn operations on the 

Wallowa-Whitman National Forest, Oregon. Lower middle: backcountry skiing on 

the Willamette National Forest; photo by Emily Jane Davis. Lower right: orange 

coral fungus, Olympic National Forest. Lower left: an adult captive red tree vole 

mechanically removing one of two unpalatable resin ducts in a Douglas-fir needle 

before eating the rest of the needle; photo by Michael Durham.
Synthesis of Science to Inform Land 

Management Within the Northwest Forest 

Plan Area: Executive Summary

Thomas A. Spies, Peter A. Stine, Rebecca Gravenmier, 

Jonathan W. Long, Matthew J. Reilly, and Rhonda Mazza

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Forest Service

Pacific Northwest Research Station

Portland, Oregon

General Technical Report PNW-GTR-970

August 2018

Abstract

Spies, Thomas A.; Stine, Peter A.; Gravenmier, Rebecca; Long, Jonathan 

W.; Reilly, Matthew J.; Mazza, Rhonda, tech. coords. 2018. Synthesis of 

science to inform land management within the Northwest Forest Plan area: 

executive summary. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-970. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 186 p.

This is the executive summary of a three-volume science synthesis that addresses 

various ecological and social concerns regarding management of federal forests 

encompassed by the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP). Land managers with the U.S. 

Forest Service provided questions that helped guide preparation of the synthesis. It 

builds on the 10-, 15-, and 20-year NWFP monitoring reports and synthesizes the 

vast body of relevant scientific literature that has accumulated in the 24 years since 

the NWFP was initiated. Here we summarize scientific findings and considerations 

for management that were identified in the full science synthesis. 

We find that the NWFP has protected dense old-growth forests and has 

maintained habitat for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), marbled 

murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus), aquatic organisms, and other species 

despite losses from wildfire and low levels of timber harvest on federal lands. Other 

goals have not been met, including producing a sustainable supply of timber and the 

broad use of adaptive management. New concerns include the impact of nonnative 

barred owls (Strix varia) on northern spotted owl populations, effects of fire suppression on forest succession, fire behavior in dry forests, and the effects of climate 

change and invasive species on native biodiversity. 

A growing body of scientific evidence supports the importance of active management or restoration inside and outside NWFP reserves to promote a full complement of biodiversity and ecological resilience. Active management to promote 

heterogeneity of vegetation conditions is important to sustaining tribal ecocultural 

resources. Declines in agency capacity, lack of markets for small-diameter wood, 

lack of wood processing infrastructure in some areas, and lack of social agreement 

have limited the amount of active management for restoration on federal lands. All 

management choices involve social and ecological tradeoffs related to the goals of 

the NWFP. Collaboration, risk management, adaptive management, and monitoring 

are considered elemental approaches in dealing with complex social and ecological 

systems with futures that are difficult to predict and affect through policy and land 

management actions.

Keywords: Northwest Forest Plan, science, management, restoration, northern 

spotted owl, marbled murrelet, climate change, socioeconomic, environmental justice.
Contents

1 Chapter 1: Context and Purpose for the Northwest Forest Plan 

Science Synthesis

1 Main Points

1 Introduction 

3 History and Elements of the Northwest Forest Plan

6 Research and Monitoring Within the NWFP Area

8 Changing Context

8 The NWFP and the 2012 Planning Rule

8 Other Emergent Issues

9 Scope and Approach of the NWFP Science Synthesis

10 Further Reading

13 Chapter 2: Climate Change, Disturbance, and Vulnerability to 

Vegetation Change in the Northwest Forest Plan Area

13 Main Points

13 Introduction

14 Key Findings 

14 The Region’s Climate Has Always Been Dynamic but May Be 

Entering a Novel Regime 

19 Disturbance and Tree Mortality as Agents of Regional Forest Change

21 Key Vulnerabilities

23 Strategies for Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change

24 Adaptation Through Stand Manipulation

24 Mitigation by Increasing Carbon Sequestration

26 Management Considerations

26 Considering the Range of Likely Variation in Change for Different Areas

27 Conclusions

28 Further Reading

31 Chapter 3: Old Growth, Disturbance, Forest Succession, and 

Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area

31 Main Points

32 Introduction

33 Key Findings

33 “Old Growth” Differs in Moist and Dry Forests 

36 Forest Conservation Is About More Than Old-Growth Forests

38 Considering Fire and Forest Dynamics in Reserves 

40 Mismatch Between Goals for Late-Successional Reserves and 

Dry Forest Ecology
40 Cultivating Resilience to Climate Change and Fire

41 Management Considerations 

41 Management of Late-Successional Reserves Differs in Moist and Dry Forests

41 Promoting Seral Diversity in Plantations and Other Forests Older Than 80 

Years in the Matrix

42 Restoration Strategies for Cultivating Resilience to Climate Change and Fire 

43 Considering the Ecological Tradeoffs Between Management Actions and 

No Action

44 Conclusions

45 Further Reading 

47 Chapter 4: Northern Spotted Owl

47 Main Points

47 Introduction

48 Key Findings

48 Steady Declines in Spotted Owl Populations Since Implementation of 

the Northwest Forest Plan

49 Defining Spotted Owl Habitat 

52 The Barred Owl Is a Prominent and Complex Threat

56 How Does Forest Disturbance Affect Spotted Owls?

59 Management Considerations

59 Forest Management and Barred Owls

59 Habitat, Wildfire, and Active Management

59 Conserving Occupied and Vacated Sites

60 Conclusions

60 Further Reading

63 Chapter 5: Marbled Murrelet

63 Main Points

63 Introduction 

66 Key Findings

67 Population Trends

67 Nesting Habitat

70 Uncertainties Remain That Challenge Murrelet Conservation

71 Management Considerations

71 Protecting and Increasing Nesting Habitat

72 Federal Lands May Not Be Enough

72 Active Management May Help Accelerate Development of Nesting Habitat

73 Conclusions

73 Further Reading
77 Chapter 6: Other Species and Biodiversity in Older Forests 

77 Main Points

78 Introduction

80 Key Findings

80 The Northwest Forest Plan Is Generally Providing Habitat for Species

Associated With Late-Successional and Old-Growth Forests

86 Habitat Corridors Between Reserves Can Hedge Against Climate 

Change Impacts

87 Uncertainties and Research Needs

88 Management Considerations

88 Information Remains Limited on Population Demography and Viability

88 Response to Fire Depends on Species

88 Static Placement of Late-Successional Reserves May Not Meet All 

Needs of Species Associated With Older Forests

89 Riparian Buffers Appear to Protect Riparian Habitat

89 Benefits to Be Gained From Fully Implementing a Biodiversity 

Monitoring Program

89 Coarse-Filter, Fine-Filter, and Landscape-Scale Management

89 Dead Wood Is Valued Habitat

90 Conclusions

90 Further Reading

93 Chapter 7: The Aquatic Conservation Strategy: Relevance to 

Management of Aquatic and Riparian Ecosystems

93 Main points

93 Introduction

94 Key Findings

94 The Scientific Foundation of the Aquatic Conservation Strategy Is Sound

95 Aquatic and Riparian Ecosystems Are Dynamic in Space and Time

96 Understanding the Effects of “No Action”

96 Benefits of Restoration Around Streams Without Fish

97 Considering Buffer Widths in a Dynamic Ecological Context

97 Assessing Effects of Roads, Segment vs. Network

97 Salmon Will Benefit From Cross-Ownership Habitat Protection and 

Restoration 

98 Water Contributions From Federal Lands Will Be Increasingly Important

98 Climate Change Will Necessitate New Approaches and Strategies 

101 Monitoring

102 Management Considerations

102 Utilizing New Watershed Assessment Tools
102 Working With a Dynamic-Ecosystem Perspective

103 Active Restoration May Be Needed

103 Riparian Restoration

103 Considering Tradeoffs Associated With Riparian Management 

Along Fish-Bearing Streams

103 Working With Adjoining Landowners

103 Working With the ACS to Address Climate Change

104 Reviewing AREMP Procedures to Ensure that the Program Yields 

Relevant Results

104 Conclusions

105 Further Reading 

107 Chapter 8: Socioeconomic Well-Being and Forest Management in 

Northwest Forest Plan-Area Communities

107 Main Points

108 Introduction

109 Key Findings

109 Impact of the Northwest Forest Plan on Rural Communities

113 Social and Economic Change in Plan-Area Communities 

114 Many Goods, Services, and Opportunities From Federal Forests 

Contribute to Community Socioeconomic Well-Being

118 Local Workforces and Business Infrastructure Contribute to Federal 

Forest Management

119 Implications of Land Use and Ownership Changes for Forest Management

121 Management Considerations

121 Federal Timber Harvests Can Help Maintain Local Wood Processing 

Infrastructure and Workforce, but Are Subject to Market and Industry 

Conditions

121 Timber Supply From all Ownerships Is Important for Maintaining Industry 

Infrastructure 

121 Structuring Work Contracts so Local Businesses Can Bid Competitively 

May Benefit Community and Forest Health

122 Planning to Attract Long-Term Investment in Processing and Workforce 

Capacity

122 Encourage Development of Local Contracting Capacity for Fire Suppression

123 Building Agreement Regarding Biomass Harvesting and Processing Can 

Set the Stage for Further Economic Benefits Related to Restoration Work

123 Informal Aspects of the NTFP Sector Support Community and Household 

Well-Being

123 Overnight Trips by Visitors Are Moneymakers

123 Tailoring Communications About Wildfire Management to Specific 

Community Types
124 Conclusions

126 Further Reading

129 Chapter 9: Understanding Our Changing Public Values, Resource 

Uses, and Engagement Processes and Practices

129 Main Points

130 Introduction

131 Key Findings

131 Environmental Values Appear to Be Shifting

132 Recreation

132 Valuing Place 

133 Cultivating Trust Through Public Engagement

134 Agency-Citizen Collaboration

134 Management Considerations

134 Understanding Public Values, Attitudes, and Beliefs Is Advantageous 

134 Stakeholders and Citizens in the NWFP Area Generally Do Not Support 

Clearcutting, Particularly in Old Growth, as a Desirable Silviculture Strategy 

135 Recreation Visits Are Expected to Grow in Day-Use Settings and 

Developed Facilities 

135 Places and the Meanings That Are Bound Up in Them Have Real 

Implications for Forest Ecosystem Management

135 Trust and Decisionmaking Processes

136 Collaboration and Public Engagement

137 Conclusions

137 Further Reading

141 Chapter 10: Environmental Justice, Low-Income and Minority 

Populations, and Forest Management in the Northwest Forest Plan Area

141 Main Points

142 Introduction

143 Key Findings

143 Trends in Low-Income and Minority Populations in the Northwest Forest 

Plan Area 

147 Use of Federal Forests in the NWFP Area by Low-Income and Minority 

Populations

150 Management Considerations

150 Improving Working Conditions for the Environmental Workforce

151 Nontimber Forest Products

151 Minimizing Barriers to Recreation

153 Nonrecreational Camping and Homelessness
153 Wildfire Management 

153 Conclusions

154 Further Reading

157 Chapter 11: Tribal Ecocultural Resources and Engagement

157 Main Points

157 Introduction

158 Key Findings

159 Disruption of Traditional Tribal Practices Negatively Affects Tribal 

Well-Being

159 Active Management to Restore Fire While Conserving Large Trees 

Is Needed for a Diverse, Reliable Supply of Ecocultural Resources

161 Access to Valued Resources

163 Strategies for Engaging Tribes in Forest Planning and Management

164 Management Considerations

165 Conclusions

166 Further Reading 

169 Chapter 12: Integrating Ecological and Social Science to Inform 

Land Management in the Area of the Northwest Forest Plan 

169 Main Points

170 Introduction 

172 Key Findings 

172 Social and Ecological Interactions

174 Conservation of Species and Ecosystems 

176 Tradeoffs Associated With Management

177 Monitoring and Adaptive Management 

177 Management Considerations 

177 The Socioeconomic System Has Changed Since the 1990s

180 Balancing Whole Ecosystem Goals With Goals Associated With Dense 

Older Forests

181 Forest Management Varies Regionally 

182 The Challenges of Conserving Individual Species 

183 Importance of Restoration in Aquatic and Riparian Ecosystems

183 Rethinking Reserves

184 Conclusions

185 Further Reading 

186 Acknowledgments
Koosah Falls, Willamette National Forest. 

USDA Forest Service photo.
1

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Peter A. Stine and Thomas A. Spies1 

Main Points

• The 1994 Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP, or Plan) drew from science available at the time and included mechanisms for subsequent learning—anticipating that updates would be needed as subsequent research revealed how 

the affected forests and communities (i.e., socioecological systems) were 

changing over time, with or without active management.

• The 2018 NWFP science synthesis (Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-966) provides a comprehensive overview of the relevant science accumulated in the 

24 years since the Plan was implemented.

• The science synthesis was prepared by request to inform the revision of 

land and resource management plans for 17 national forests within the footprint of the NWFP in Washington, Oregon, and northern California. 

Introduction

We live in an era of massive amounts of information. E.O. Wilson, renowned 

ecologist and author, summarized this situation well: 

“We are drowning in information, while starving for wisdom. The world 

henceforth will be run by synthesizers, people able to put together the right 

information at the right time, think critically about it, and make important 

choices wisely.”

— E.O. Wilson, Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge (1988)

Access to information brings many benefits to society. It also creates challenges 

for those who are responsible for understanding and applying considerable new 

as well as older-but-still-relevant information to their day-to-day work. How does 

one keep up with the volume of information that is published daily? Placed in the 

context of land management, this challenge is particularly daunting. The biology of 

a single species, the dynamics of ecosystems shaped by disturbance, and societal 

values and human behavior all carry weight in land management. Understanding 

1 Peter A. Stine is a research program manager and biogeographer (retired), U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, and is a research 

associate, John Muir Institute for the Environment, University of California–Davis, 1 

Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616; Thomas A. Spies is a senior scientist emeritus, U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW 

Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331. 

Chapter 1: Context and Purpose for the 

Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis
2

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

both deeply and broadly is no small order. Each year, new studies illuminate various new and sometimes unexpected facets of these intertwined connections. 

With the Northwest Forest Plan science synthesis, we take up this challenge. The 

NWFP footprint stretches from the Washington/Canada border to the Bay Area in 

northern California and encompasses diverse geography, ecological systems, and 

human communities. We have compiled the most current information relevant to these 

ecosystems and their intersections with human communities. Federal land managers 

within the Plan area depend on sound scientific knowledge about ecological systems—

how they function and respond to change—and how people view forest resources and 

management choices. Our goal with this synthesis, which was prepared by request 

of the USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest and Pacific Southwest Regions, is to 

support science-based resource management choices in coming years (fig. 1-1). 

Figure 1-1—A diagram of the forest plan revision process. The Northwest Forest Plan science synthesis was prepared for the preassessment phase but can be used throughout the planning process and during plan implementation. NEPA = National Environmental 

Policy Act; DEIS = draft environmental impact statement; FEIS = final environmental impact statement.
3

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Most public lands within the NWFP area are managed by the Forest Service. This 

includes roughly 19.2 million ac (7.68 million ha) on 17 national forests (Deschutes, 

Fremont-Winema, Gifford Pinchot, Klamath, Lassen, Mendocino, Modoc, Mount 

Hood, Mount Baker–Snoqualmie, Okanogan-Wenatchee, Olympic, Rogue River–

Siskiyou, Shasta-Trinity, Siuslaw, Six Rivers, Umpqua, and Willamette). The Plan 

area also includes roughly 2.5 million ac (1 million ha) of Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands and about 2.3 million ac (0.92 million ha) of National Park Service 

lands. 

This synthesis is intended to support upcoming management planning and 

forest management on all federal lands in the NWFP area, but is expected primarily 

to serve impending revisions of forest and resource management plans that apply 

to land managed by the Forest Service. In 2016, the BLM completed revising its 

resource management plans for its lands in western Oregon. Although the BLM 

and Forest Service are using distinct and separate planning processes to revise their 

land use plans, the two agencies share common goals for long-term monitoring of 

the impacts of their land use plans following implementation.

History and Elements of the Northwest Forest Plan

The 1980s were part of a transformative period for the Pacific Northwest and 

northern California. For many years, timber harvest was extensive across the 

region, and concerns about the effects that the logging of old-growth forest had on 

wildlife and riparian areas grew steadily into the early 1990s. The 1990 listing of 

the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) as a threatened species under 

the Endangered Species Act precipitated numerous legal challenges regarding the 

cumulative impacts of federal timber harvests in the region. When a federal court 

issued an injunction in 1991 on all timber sales on federal lands within the range of 

the northern spotted owl, the political and environmental landscape shifted substantially. The ensuing political crisis set the stage for the NWFP.

Under President Clinton’s direction, the Forest Service, BLM, and other federal 

agencies set out to develop a scientifically defensible path forward. Deliberations 

focused on protecting old-forest ecosystems for spotted owls while sustaining rural 

communities and economies through sustained timber harvest. Also considered 

were the needs of marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus), anadromous 

fish, and other species associated with older forest. 

The authors of the NWFP understood that scientific knowledge would be 

crucial to the success of the Plan. They drew on available science and included 
4

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

mechanisms for testing the Plan’s assumptions and anticipated that changes would 

be needed as new science revealed how and why the affected forests and communities (i.e., socioecological systems) change over time, with and without active 

management. Extensive involvement of the White House, Forest Service, and BLM 

led to adoption of the NWFP in 1994.

The Plan was based on both ecosystem- and species-level conservation and 

restoration strategies. Its principal tasks were to conserve and restore habitats for 

animals and plant species associated with old-growth forests and to maintain and 

restore habitat for anadromous fish within the confines of existing laws and regulations (e.g., the National Forest Management Act and Endangered Species Act). The 

final plan was set forth in the record of decision with the following key elements:

• Adoption of an ecosystem management approach.

• Designation of seven land use allocations (fig. 1-2) to address key conservation/management concerns, including:

▪ Congressionally reserved areas (7.3 million ac [2.95 million ha])

▪ New late-successional reserves (7.4 million ac [2.99 million ha])

▪ New adaptive management areas (1.5 million ac [607 000 ha]) 

▪ New managed late-successional areas (102,000 ac [41 000 ha])

▪ Administratively withdrawn areas (1.48 million ac [597 000 ha])

▪ New riparian reserves (2.2 million ac [890000 ha])

▪ Matrix (for ecologically sensitive timber production) (nearly 4 million 

ac [1.6 million ha])

• An emphasis on effective consultation with more than 70 federally recognized tribes to avert conflicts with American Indian trust resources on 

public lands and exercise of tribal treaty rights.

• Standards and guidelines that provided specific management direction for 

forests and riparian areas within the range of the northern spotted owl.

• A new monitoring program consisting of implementation monitoring (Are 

the standards and guidelines being followed?) and effectiveness monitoring 

(Is the Plan having the desired effect?).

• “Survey and manage” measures to better understand and provide for other 

late-successional species that may not be covered under the conservation 

strategies for the spotted owl, marbled murrelet, aquatic ecosystems, and 

old-growth forests and may be at risk from further logging of old-growth 

forests in the matrix.
5

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Figure 1-2—Ownership and land use allocation within the Northwest Forest Plan area. Management of 

the affected 24 million ac of land was altered significantly to meet the new biological diversity goals set 

forth by the Plan in 1994. 

Ownership and land use allocations (2013)

Congressionally reserved

Late-successional reserve

Managed late-successional area

Administratively withdrawn

Adaptive management area

Adaptive management area in reserve

Matrix

Private

State

Tribal

0 50 100 200

Miles

0 75 150 300

Kilometers o

WASH INGTON

OREGON

Northwest

Forest Plan

area

CALIFORNIA
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Ensuing management on the affected 24 million ac (9.7 million ha) of land was 

directed to meet these new biological diversity goals. At the time, relatively little 

was known about most species associated with late-successional and old-growth 

forests, and this is still largely the case. Although the biology and ecology of the 

northern spotted owl were relatively well understood, there were many gaps in our 

understanding of this threatened species. The major shift in federal forest management in the 1990s was part of a larger global trend toward protecting biodiversity 

through a process called “ecosystem management.”

Research and Monitoring Within the NWFP Area

The NWFP involves the scientific community, through research and monitoring, in 

ways and to lengths not used before in Forest Service planning and management. 

The record of decision required a detailed monitoring plan to ensure that management actions would meet the prescribed standards and guidelines and that these 

actions would comply with applicable laws and policies. 

Information obtained through monitoring, together with new research and 

information from adaptive management areas, were intended to provide a basis for 

changes to the NWFP as needed, including changes to the standards and guidelines. 

Although a formal validation monitoring program was never established, research 

activities were conducted to help test hypotheses related to NWFP goals.

Monitoring results have been evaluated and reported in 1- and 5-year intervals 

since the Plan’s inception. A series of comprehensive reports summarizing the first 

10 years of NWFP monitoring data was published by the Forest Service Pacific 

Northwest Research Station in 2006. This was an important first step in adaptive 

management. The 10-year reports synthesized the status and trends of five major 

elements of the Plan: old-growth forests, old-growth forest species at risk, aquatic 

systems, socioeconomics, and adaptive management. 

The 10-year reports found the following:

• Nearly all old-growth forest on federal land was protected from timber 

harvest and had increased an estimated 1.2 million ac (~480 000 ha) in 

the first 10 years as a result of accretion by growth.

• Northern spotted owls were declining at greater rate than expected in 

their northern range, likely because of competition from barred owls and 

habitat loss from wildfire.

• Watershed condition improved slightly because of tree growth, reduced 

harvest in riparian areas, and increased emphasis on restoration. 
7

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

• Federal timber harvest in the Plan area was only 54 percent of the level 

set by the Plan’s goals.

• In spite of mitigation measures, most local communities near federal 

lands suffered significant job losses and other adverse effects. 

• State, federal, and tribal governments worked together on forest management issues more effectively than in the past. 

• Increased collaboration with communities changed how the agencies 

get work done.

Reports analyzing 20 years of monitoring data under the NWFP were published 

between 2015 and 2017. These reports summarized the latest periodic monitoring 

data gathered since 1994, with a focus on the previous 5 years. Key findings from 

the 20-year reports include:

• Overall late-successional and old-growth habitat area decreased 3 percent 

on federal lands, with the biggest losses resulting from wildfires. 

• In Washington, the marbled murrelet population declined by 4.6 percent 

annually from 2001 to 2013; a cumulative decline over 10 years of 37.6

percent. Populations had no detectable trends in Oregon and California. 

• The forest types suitable for nesting and roosting for northern spotted owls 

on federal lands decreased by 1.5 percent since the Plan was implemented. 

Although forest succession resulted in recruitment of suitable vegetation, 

the influx of barred owls negatively affected population viability. 

• The attributes of watershed conditions (in-channel physical habitat, 

macroinvertebrates, and water temperature) showed slight improvements, 

but uncertainties in the trends of overall conditions remain. 

• Timber volume harvested fluctuated over the past 20 years. The volume of 

timber offered has been on a general upward trend since 2000, with volume 

offered in 2012 at about 80 percent of probable sale quantity identified in 

the NWFP.

• Rural communities are not all alike, forest management policies affect different communities differently, and the social and economic bases of many 

traditionally forest-dependent communities has changed since 1994.

• Federal-tribal relations are more effective and meaningful when there is 

common understanding of consultation, tribal rights, federal trust responsibilities, and compatibility of tribal and federal land management.
8

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Changing Context

The NWFP and the 2012 Planning Rule

The 2012 National Forest System Land Management Planning Rule (hereafter, 

planning rule) brings many changes to the forest planning process. The agency’s 

goal with the new planning rule was to promote an adaptive land management planning process that was inclusive, efficient, collaborative, and science-based to ensure 

healthy, resilient, diverse, and productive national forests and grasslands. It emphasizes adaptive planning and engagement of science in Forest Service land management. The 2012 planning rule increases the emphasis on coarse filter (ecosystem) 

approaches to conservation and reduces emphasis on species (population viability) 

approaches compared to its predecessor, the 1982 planning rule.

The 2012 planning rule could be seen as evolving from the 1982 rule based 

in part on lessons learned from administration of the NWFP. That is, the 2012 

planning rule aims to reduce the administrative burden of managing for hundreds 

of individual species. Science and the concept of adapting practices in light of 

new information are central to the NWFP, although formal adaptive management 

approaches were discontinued. Although the Plan emphasized fine-filter (meeting needs of a particular species) approaches to conservation for the spotted owl, 

marbled murrelet, and hundreds of other species, it recognized that both coarsefilter and fine-filter conservation strategies are needed to more thoroughly meet biological diversity goals. However, as the science synthesis documents, the NWFP’s 

emphasis on maintaining or increasing dense older forests in dry, fire-frequent 

forests does not mesh with the objective of the 2012 planning rule to manage for 

resilience to climate change.

The 2012 planning rule calls for a three-phase process for revising forest plans: 

assessment, plan revision, and monitoring. The science synthesis is intended to 

support the assessment phase for national forests within the Plan area. It will also 

provide a foundation of information to support the monitoring phase. 

Other Emergent Issues

Although the 2012 planning rule changed the policy context for the NWFP, over 

the past 24 years the ecological, social, and scientific contexts of the NWFP have 

changed as well. New threats and concerns have emerged. Three significant ones 

are invasive species, such as the barred owl and its impact on the northern spotted 

owl; wildfire, which has increased in frequency; and climate change, which may 

already be affecting rates of mortality in old trees in the region. 
9

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Socioeconomic changes have also occurred, including the growth of amenitybased economies in many communities, shifts of the timber industry from large- to 

small-diameter logs, and increasing efforts to use collaboration in the management 

of Forest Service lands. 

The agency’s capacity and workforce for conducting management activities, 

including restoration, have both declined. These new issues add additional challenges for land managers as they engage in future on-the-ground management and 

plan revision. 

Scope and Approach of the NWFP Science Synthesis

The NWFP science synthesis is a joint effort by the Forest Service’s Pacific 

Northwest and Pacific Southwest Research Stations. The synthesis will inform the 

development of revised land and resource management plans (forest plans) for 17 

national forests. Its structure stems from an array of questions received from land 

managers. We ultimately grouped 73 questions into these major headings:

• Vegetation conditions

• Terrestrial species

• Aquatic and riparian management

• Social and economic well-being

• Integrated topics

To help meet the challenge of revising forest plans, the synthesis provides 

a comprehensive overview of the full body of relevant science accumulated in 

the 24 years since the NWFP was initiated. It builds on the 10-, 15-, and 20-year 

NWFP monitoring reports. Chapter authors drew upon their extensive knowledge 

of scientific literature that applies to the Plan area; more than 4,000 peer-reviewed 

publications were considered during the writing process. The synthesis does not 

provide management recommendations, nor does it assess likely outcomes of different approaches to revising forest plans in the NWFP area.

This synthesis has been classified as “highly influential,” according to the 

Office of Management and Budget’s 2004 Final Information Quality Bulletin for 

Peer Review, because of perceptions that differing scientific information from various sources may be controversial and that there would be significant interagency 

interest in the science. Accordingly, we employed a rigorous review process. We 

established a Web portal to enable the public to suggest appropriate literature to 

be reviewed. We employed an external peer-review process that included multiple 

reviewers with relevant expertise for each chapter and public input for the reviewers’ consideration. The Ecological Society of America managed the independent 

reviews for each chapter and the synthesis as a whole. 
10

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

This executive summary follows the format of the full synthesis (Spies et 

al. 2018). The following 10 chapters synthesize the state of knowledge for the 

particular topic and highlight key findings and management considerations. The 

final chapter examines integrated themes that bind the individual chapter topics 

together and examines how this synthesized knowledge can inform vital forest 

management activities. 

Further Reading

Charnley, S. 2006. The Northwest Forest Plan as a model for broad-scale 

ecosystem management: a social perspective. Conservation Biology. 

20(2): 330–340.

Forest Ecosystem Management Assessment Team [FEMAT]. 1993. Forest 

ecosystem management: an ecological, economic, and social assessment. 

Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture; U.S. Department of the Interior 

[and others]. [Irregular pagination].

Rapp, V. 2008. Northwest Forest Plan—the first 10 years (1994–2003): first-decade 

results of the Northwest Forest Plan. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-720. Portland, 

OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research 

Station. 42 p.

Spies, T.A.; Duncan, S.L., eds. 2009. Old growth in a new world: a Pacific 

Northwest icon reexamined. Washington, DC: Island Press. 360 p. 

Spies, T.A.; Stine, P.A.; Gravenmier, R.; Long, J.W.; Reilly, M.J., tech. 

coords. 2018. Synthesis of science to inform land management within the 

Northwest Forest Plan Area. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-966. Portland, OR: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 

1020 p. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56278.

Thomas, J.W.; Franklin, J.F.; Gordon, J.; Johnson, K.N. 2006. The 

Northwest Forest Plan: origins, components, implementation experience, 

and suggestions for change. Conservation Biology. 20: 277–287. doi:10.1111/

j.1523-1739.2006.00385.x.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service; U.S. Department of the 

Interior, Bureau of Land Management [USDA and USDI]. 1994. Record of 

decision for amendments to Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management 

planning documents within the range of the northern spotted owl. [Place of 

publication unknown]. 74 p. 
11

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary
12

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Prescribed burn operations on the WallowaWhitman National Forest, Oregon. Photo by 

Matt Burks, USDA Forest Service.
13

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Matthew J. Reilly, Thomas A. Spies, Jeremy Littell, Ramona Butz, and John B. Kim1

Main Points

• Climate change was not explicitly considered during development of the 

Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP, or Plan) in 1994. Over the past two decades, 

however, climate change has emerged as an overarching theme in natural 

resource science and management. 

• The NWFP area is projected to enter a novel climate regime during the next 

century. Conditions are projected to exceed the 20th century range of variability around the 2050s in some portions of the region, particularly in the 

Klamath Mountains and southern Cascade Range.

• Most models project that the region will experience warmer, drier summers 

and potentially warmer, wetter winters. 

• The effects of climate change will occur through a variety of mechanisms at 

a range of spatial scales and levels of biological organization. These effects 

will be seen in the physiological responses of individual plants as well as in 

the composition and structure of stands and landscapes.

• Considering a variety of approaches may be helpful when managing in the 

face of uncertainty. “Bet hedging” strategies and multiple courses of action 

may help to minimize risk and enable further learning.

Introduction

Climate change is expected to alter the structure, composition, and function of 

forested ecosystems across the globe. Increases in atmospheric concentrations 

of greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide [CO2]) and temperature, as well as 

altered precipitation and disturbance regimes (e.g., fire, insects, pathogens, and 

windstorms), are likely to have profound effects on biodiversity and the delivery of 

1 Matthew J. Reilly is a postdoctoral researcher, Humboldt State University, Department 

of Biological Sciences, 1 Harpst Street, Arcata, CA 95521; Thomas A. Spies is a senior 

scientist emeritus and John B. Kim is a biological scientist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, 

Corvallis, OR 97331; Jeremy Littell is a research scientist, U.S. Department of the Interior, 

Geological Survey, Alaska Climate Science Center, 2160 Koyukuk Drive, Anchorage, AK 

99775; Ramona Butz is an ecologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Pacific Southwest Region, 1330 Bayshore Way, Eureka, CA 95501. 

Chapter 2: Climate Change, Disturbance, and 

Vulnerability to Vegetation Change in the 

Northwest Forest Plan Area
14

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

ecosystem services within the Plan area over the next century. The effects of climate change will occur through a variety of mechanisms at a range of spatial scales 

and levels of biological organization. These effects will be seen in the physiological 

responses of individual plants and in the composition and structure of stands and 

landscapes. It is difficult to generalize about the effects of climate change. The 

region’s environmental and climatic setting is extremely diverse (fig. 2-1) and its 

ecological interactions are complex. Understanding how climate change projections 

and the potential ecological effects and uncertainties differ across the region is 

essential for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies. 

Climate change was not explicitly considered during development of the NWFP 

in 1994. In the past two decades, however, it has emerged as an overarching theme 

in natural resource science and management. It sets the context for any discussion 

about future conditions—both in terms of likely changes it will trigger and the 

uncertainty associated with managing forests when the past is not necessarily a 

reliable reference point. 

Chapter 2 of the NWFP science synthesis lays the foundation for understanding 

the physical basis of climate change for the remaining chapters and reviews what 

is known about possible direct (e.g., growth, mortality) and indirect (disturbance) 

effects of climate change on forests. We summarize key findings below. Other chapters of the synthesis explore how climate change might affect specific terrestrial 

and aquatic species and additional adaptation considerations associated with those 

species and ecosystems. 

Key Findings 

The Region’s Climate Has Always Been Dynamic but 

May Be Entering a Novel Regime 

The climate and vegetation of the NWFP area went through continuous change over 

the past 11,700 years during the Holocene. During this period, complex interactions between a fluctuating climate and fire drove vegetation change at millennial 

scales. Species ranges expanded and contracted over time in response to climate 

and disturbance. Some species persisted in refugia in regions where climate was 

otherwise generally unsuitable. Refugia played an important role in the persistence 

of populations of plants and animals through the multiple climatic transitions that 

occurred in the region since the last glacial maximum. 
15

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Figure 2-1—Geographic distribution of vegetation zones (Simpson 2013) and ecoregions (physiographic provinces) within 

the Northwest Forest Plan area. The environmental and climatic setting of the region is extremely diverse.
16

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Historical fluctuations in climate and fire episodes-— 

During the past 1,000 years, climate and fire fluctuated at centennial scales. The 

warmest temperatures occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~900–1250 

CE), and the coldest temperatures occurred during the Little Ice Age (~1450–1850 

CE). Precipitation also varied during this time, but there is less consensus about 

this in the literature. Although there is some evidence that a relatively dry period 

occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, more recent evidence suggests that 

this period was wet and the Little Ice Age was dry. The synchronous occurrence of 

fires in the Plan area over the past 400 years was related to regional drought driven 

by teleconnections with sea surface temperature anomalies (e.g., El Niño/Southern 

Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Fire was generally infrequent in most 

moist vegetation zones but fire return intervals ranged from about 50 years to >200 

years, with synchronous, regional fire episodes occurring across the region from the 

1400s to the mid-1600s, and again from the early 1800s to around 1925. Fire was 

far more frequent in dry vegetation zones, where return intervals were shorter and 

generally varied from 10 to 50 years until the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

Temperature and precipitation changes in the 20th century—

Increases in temperature and precipitation across the NWFP area during the 20th

century exceeded average global increases and vary across the region as well as 

among seasons. There is evidence supporting both strong human-caused climate 

change and temperature increases associated with ocean/atmospheric variability, 

but natural factors alone cannot explain warming in the region. Average annual 

temperature in western Oregon and Washington increased by 1.6 °F (0.91 °C) 

during the 20th century, with the greatest increase of 3.3 °F (1.83 °C) occurring 

during the winter. Likewise, precipitation during the same period also increased by 

13 percent with the greatest increase of 37 percent during spring. Northern California also experienced accelerated warming since 1970. Mean annual temperature 

increased by 0.3 °F (0.18 °C), and northern California recently experienced the 

hottest and the driest period in the observational record, and potentially in the past 

1,200 years. Twentieth century trends in precipitation varied in northern California 

with evidence of overall increases as well as slight decreases in some parts of the 

Plan area. 

Climate trends across the region indicate changes in several characteristics of 

weather associated with climate change relevant to forest and vegetation dynamics. 

Spring (March to May) temperature increased approximately 1.8 °F (1 °C) from 

1950 to 1998, and snowpack declined during the latter half of the 20th century. 
17

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Decreases in the proportion of annual precipitation falling as snow, the amount of 

water contained in spring snowpack (i.e., the depth of water if the snow were to 

melt), and increased evapotranspiration from longer growing seasons increased soil 

water deficits since the 1970s. A longer freeze-free season, an increase in the temperature of the coldest night of the year, and increased potential evapotranspiration 

during the growing season also occurred during this period. Fog frequency along 

the coast of northern California declined by 33 percent during the 20th century, as 

has low summertime cloudiness. Most recently, northern California has undergone 

a dramatic shift from extreme drought conditions in 2012 to 2016 followed by 

extreme precipitation events and severe flooding. 

A warmer future with potentially wetter winters and drier summers—

Climate change projections for Washington, Oregon, and northern California depict 

a future with significant warming by the end of the 21st century, though the magnitude of warming differs across the region. Projected increases in annual average 

temperature for Oregon and Washington range from 4.3 to 5.8 °F (2.4 to 3.2 °C) by 

the middle of the century (2041 to 2070), and 5.9 to 17.5 °F (3.3 to 9.7 °C) by the 

end of the century (2070 to 2099). 

Warming is projected to occur across all seasons, with the greatest temperature 

increases occurring during summer months. Projected changes in precipitation 

are more uncertain, with some models projecting a 10-percent decrease in annual 

precipitation by the end of the century (2070 to 2099) and others projecting as much 

as an 18 percent increase in precipitation. Most projections depict wetter winters 

and drier summers. Temperature conditions projected by 2100 across much of 

the western Cascade Range and Klamath Mountains do not resemble conditions 

experienced during the 20th century. A more extreme scenario projects that most of 

Oregon and Washington will depart from their historical climate regime by 2050 

when the mean annual temperature of a given location will exceed the 20th century 

range of variability. 

In northern California, projections for increases in annual temperature range 

from 2.7 to 8.1 °F (1.5 to 4.5 °C) by 2100. Projections depict drier futures, with total 

annual precipitation decreasing by 18 percent in a more extreme scenario. Increases 

in temperature are projected for all seasons across northern California, with the 

greatest increases occurring during the summer months. Projected decreases in 

summer precipitation range from 4 to 68 percent, whereas projected changes in 

precipitation during winter months range from a 9 percent decrease to a 4 percent 

increase. Interannual variability is expected to increase with the occurrence of 
18

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

greater wet and dry extremes during the wet season 

(October to March). Most of northern California 

is projected to depart from its 20th century climate 

by 2040, and the projected future climate of the 

Klamath Mountains by 2100 represents conditions 

of temperature and precipitation not experienced in 

the recent past.

Changes in the magnitude and seasonality of 

temperature and precipitation patterns will most 

likely affect vegetation by altering the availability 

of water in the soil. Cumulatively, these will be 

experienced ecologically through hotter droughts 

and greater deficits in water balance. Water balance 

deficit for vegetation is defined as the difference 

between potential evaporation and actual evapotranspiration. Ecologically, water-balance deficit 

equates to the difference between the atmospheric 

demand for water from vegetation and the amount 

of water that is actually available to use. Even if 

precipitation remains similar to 20th century levels, 

projected increases in temperatures could reduce 

the amount of soil moisture available for plants.

Projections for changes in water-balance deficit 

differ among models and across the region (fig. 

2-2). Most of the region is projected to experience 

increased summer (June through September) waterbalance deficits during the middle part of the 21st

century. The eastern Cascades, Klamath Mountains, 

and southern portion of the western Cascades in 

Oregon will likely experience the greatest increases 

in water-balance deficit, as well as the southeastern 

Figure 2-2—Projected changes in summer water 

balance deficit across the Northwest Forest Plan area 

for 2030–2059 (June through September), compared 

to water-balance deficit from 1916 to 2006. Higher 

water balance deficit (browns) means decreased 

water available for plant uptake. Map boundaries 

correspond with the ecoregions in figure 2-1. 

Water balance 

deficit (inches)

-2 to -1.9

-1.9 to -1

-0.9 to 0

0 to 0.9

1 to 1.9

2 to 2.9

3 to 3.9

4 to 4.9
19

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

portion of the Oregon Coast Range and the northern portion of the California Coast 

Range. The least amount of change is projected in the northern portions of the 

Coast Range along the Pacific Ocean. Higher elevations of the Olympic Peninsula 

and the northern portion of the western Cascades in Washington are projected to 

experience less summer water balance deficit in the future.

Climate refugia—

When considering the coarse resolution of climate projections, it is important to 

recognize the potential variability in future climate and vegetation change at finer 

scales. Differences in vegetation structure and topography can drive fine-scale 

variation in temperature extremes, with differences in maximum and minimum 

temperatures of similar magnitude to those projected at a broader scale. Complex 

topography and cold air pooling may decouple climate conditions in mountain 

valleys from surrounding landscape, and snow may persist later in the season 

in canopy gaps and topographic depressions. Recent findings also indicate that 

dense old-growth forests in moist vegetation zones of the region may provide 

local cooling effects. 

The potential for relatively stable climatic conditions at finer scales in some 

landscapes suggests these areas may serve as climatic refugia and contribute to the 

future persistence of some species. Refugia will most likely be found in topographically-complex landscapes in which microclimates differ because of differences in 

aspect, shading and insolation, and cold air drainages. Such refugia may enable 

species persistence during unfavorable climatic conditions and serve as sources for 

future recolonization, provided that suitable conditions return in the future.

Disturbance and Tree Mortality as Agents of Regional 

Forest Change

Climate change is expected to alter vegetation through direct effects (e.g., of CO2

and climate on vegetation processes) and indirect effects (e.g., disturbance processes). The direct effects of climate change and increasing CO2 on vegetation will 

be expressed through changes in tree growth and mortality, both of which may 

be sensitive to altered phenology and biotic interactions within and among species. The indirect effects of climate change are expected to be expressed through 

increases in the frequency, severity, and extent of disturbances, particularly 

drought, fire, insects, and pathogens. These have the potential for rapid ecological 

change at landscape scales, and are predicted to be a greater driver of ecological 

change than direct effects, at least in the near term. The relative importance of these 

drivers, however, is likely to vary geographically across the region among species, 

seral stages, physiographic provinces, and disturbance regimes. 
20

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Water availability will determine tree growth—

The potential response of tree growth to climate change varies substantially 

among species depending on the factors that limit growth, including water 

availability and length of growing season. Growth in Douglas-fir is predicted 

to decrease under climate change where it is currently water limited, but may 

increase where this species is limited by growing-season length or by lower than 

optimal temperatures. In species of high-elevation forests where growth is limited 

by temperature and growing-season length, growth increased during the 20th century owing to warmer winter temperatures and longer growing seasons. Warmer 

winters and earlier snowmelt may also increase potential for drought and water 

stress in higher elevation forests, especially toward the southern portion of their 

range, but these effects are not yet well documented. The effects of climate change 

on ponderosa pine is uncertain as wetter fall seasons may increase growth while 

drier summers decrease growth. These effects may vary across the landscape as 

ponderosa pine may be more sensitive to drought at lower elevations. The response 

of ponderosa pine also depends on the potential for CO2 to enhance growth by 

increasing water-use efficiency. However, some evidence suggests that any benefits 

of CO2 fertilization in the future will be outweighed as the climate warms and 

water becomes more limiting. 

Tree mortality will likely vary geographically and by species—

Tree mortality from higher temperatures and drought stress has already occurred 

in many forests of the region, and is expected to increase in the 21st century. 

Warmer temperatures and increased frequency and duration of droughts are 

likely to increase climate-induced physiological stress on plants and potentially 

exacerbate the effects of biotic disturbance agents (e.g., insects and pathogens). 

However, the magnitude of these effects are likely to be variable and differ 

geographically as well as among species. Pathogen activity is likely to increase 

where such organisms typically infect drought-stressed host species, but climate 

change effects on pathogens that occur under moist conditions may be more 

variable and difficult to predict. Warmer winters and hotter droughts are expected 

to enable insects to move into previously unsuitable habitat. Recent increases in 

tree mortality rates in old-growth forests are associated with pathogen and insect 

activity and resulted in cumulative losses in basal area and density. However, a 

better understanding of the trends and ecological consequences of mortality 

and how these vary among seral stages in terms of community-level change 

(i.e., structure and composition) is needed. 
21

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Longer fire seasons and drought point to increased future fire activity in 

drier forests—

Increases in the frequency and extent of fire are related to longer fire seasons associated with earlier snowmelt and warmer spring and summer temperatures as well 

as drought. Annual area burned increased since the mid-1980s, but there is growing consensus that dry vegetation zones experienced less fire during this period 

than they would have during presettlement times due to fire suppression. The 

effects of recent fires, however, have been extremely variable across the region, 

and several large fires have occurred in the Klamath Mountains, eastern Cascades, 

and western Cascades of Oregon (fig. 2-3). Fire severity has been related to climate 

and drought at broad spatial scales, and there is little evidence that the proportion burning at high severity has increased across the region since the mid-1980s. 

There is evidence, however, that fires are getting bigger and that larger patches of 

high-severity fire occur during drought years when more area is burned.

A number of studies using different techniques project increases in a variety of 

metrics of fire activity (i.e., area burned, fire size, severity, fire interval) during the 

21st century, although projections vary considerably across the NWFP area. Drier 

forests in the Klamath Mountains, western Cascades, and eastern Cascades are 

projected to experience more fire activity over the next century, while most studies 

project little increase in fire activity in moist maritime forests (i.e., Sitka spruce, 

redwood, western hemlock). 

Key Vulnerabilities

Several vulnerabilities triggered by climate change have been identified either 

explicitly in the literature or may be inferred based on knowledge of long-term 

vegetation change in the region, the distribution and dynamics of current vegetation, 

and projected changes across the region. Increases in temperature, as well as altered 

precipitation and disturbance regimes, are expected to affect vegetation across the 

region. 

General vulnerabilities include: 

• Increased wildfire and insect activity driven by drought and extreme weather 

events. 

• Ongoing and new invasions of nonnative species.

• Loss of some high-elevation tree species (e.g., whitebark pine). 

• Loss of climate-suitable habitat for fragmented populations at the margins 

of their range (e.g., Alaska yellow-cedar), narrowly distributed species, and 

species with poor dispersal, especially where topography does not foster the 

potential for long-term persistence in relatively climate stable refugia. 
22

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Figure 2-3—Geographic patterns of burn severity from 1985 to 2010 in the Northwest Forest Plan area. The effects of recent fires have 

been extremely variable across the region. Map boundaries correspond with the ecoregions in figure 2-1 (adapted from Reilly et al. 2017). 

Fire severity

Low

Moderate

High

Northwest Forest Plan area

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

Acres

19851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Year

Eastern Cascades

120,000

80,000

40,000

0

Acres

198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

20092010

Year

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

Acres

19851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Year

Klamath Mountains

Western Cascades

120,000

80,000

40,000

0

Acres

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971999200020012002200320042005200620072008

20092010

Year 1998
23

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

The greatest vulnerability to climate change exists in the drier and colder portions 

of the Plan area: the eastern Cascades, southern portion of the western Cascades 

of Oregon, coastal and inland areas of the Klamath Mountains, and the California 

Coast Range. 

• In dry vegetation zones of these ecoregions, increases in area burned during drought conditions are likely to result in larger patches of high-severity 

fire and drive landscape-scale change. 

• In general, there is good model agreement that subalpine forests will decline 

everywhere except in the northern portion of the eastern Cascades. 

• Several tree species in both wet and dry vegetation zones are vulnerable to 

nonnative pathogens whose effects may be exacerbated by climate change. 

▪ These include whitebark pine, subalpine fir, sugar pine, western white 

pine, Port Orford cedar, tanoak, and several species of oak. Old-growth 

forests will also be vulnerable to periods of elevated mortality rates 

associated with insects and pathogens during drought. 

• Along the coast, decreases in summer fog may substantially reduce suitable 

climate for redwood and other coastal species that depend on it to mitigate 

summer drought. 

Strategies for Adaptation and Mitigation to 

Climate Change

Adaptation and mitigation are essential components of strategic planning to address 

the effects of climate change. Adaptation options include management actions at 

stand and landscape scales to reduce vulnerabilities to climate change. Mitigation 

includes efforts to increase carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems and provide 

new energy-efficient products and technologies for society.

Several adaptation options to reduce climate change vulnerability are available (table 2-1). These range from manipulating stand and landscape structure to 

foster resistance and resilience to future disturbance, to protecting intact areas and 

potential climate change refugia that provide connectivity that facilitates migration 

by species to more favorable habitats. 
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Adaptation Through Stand Manipulation

Manipulation of stand and landscape structure with management tools (i.e., thinning or prescribed fire) is thought to increase resistance and resilience to future 

vulnerabilities associated with drought and disturbance (e.g., fire, insects) in drier 

forests that may be subject to moisture stress and fire. Findings from dry forests in 

other regions support the use of thinning as an option to increase soil water availability, reduce growing-season moisture stress, and improve vigor in older trees, but 

the NWFP area is lacking specific studies on this topic.

Prescribed fire can also increase resistance to drought in dry forests of the 

Sierra Nevada of California. Thinning has been used effectively to reduce fire 

severity in dry Douglas-fir of Washington’s eastern Cascades and other regions in 

the Western United States. Fuel treatments may be effective at reducing fire behavior and burn severity during moderate burning conditions; however, treatments may 

not be effective during large weather-driven fires. 

Mitigation by Increasing Carbon Sequestration

Activities that can mitigate the effects of changing climates include efforts to 

increase carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. Forests in the Plan area have 

great potential to store large amounts of carbon in both live and dead biomass. Total 

carbon storage varies among physiographic provinces as a result of productivity and 

Table 2-1—Summary of adaptation options to climate change vulnerabilities in the Northwest Forest Plan area

Vulnerability Strategy Tactics

Increased drought stress Increase resilience Thinning

Favor drought-resistant species/genotypes

Foster genetic and 

phenotypic diversity

Protect trees adapted to water stress

Collect seeds for future

Maintain connectivity for natural species migration

Increasing area affected by 

fire, insects, and pathogens

Increase stand resilience Thinning and prescribed fire

Increase stand heterogeneity

Favor fire-tolerant species

Increase landscape resilience Increase landscape heterogeneity

Increase diversity of patch sizes 

Use topography to guide treatments

Loss of forest cover Monitoring of change Use existing data and add more where needed

Planting/assisted migration

Maintain connectivity for natural species migration

Exotic species Increase control efforts Early detection/rapid response/frequent inventory

Interagency coordination

Source: Halofsky et al. 2017.
25

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

disturbance. Recent findings suggest that forests on Forest Service lands in Oregon 

and Washington currently store about 63 percent of their potential maximum carbon. At current rates, harvest and disturbance have little overall impact on carbon 

sequestration on federal lands in Oregon and Washington as a whole. This differs 

at smaller scales among geographic areas, however, particularly in areas where dry 

forests have experienced substantial landscape change after recent fires. 

• In the Oregon Coast Range, projected increases in productivity are associated with projections of increased carbon storage, but gains could be offset 

by losses, depending on harvest intensity. 

• Projections suggest future decreases in carbon storage from increases in 

fire activity in the eastern and western Cascades of Washington. 

• In forests west of the Cascades where fire is less frequent, decreasing harvesting, increasing rotation age, and maintaining and increasing the extent 

of late-successional and old-growth forests are strategies to increase carbon 

storage toward theoretical maximum limits. 

▪ Maintaining and increasing the area of dense old-growth forests with 

high biomass also has the potential to mitigate temperature changes in 

topographically complex mountainous environments. 

• Carbon stores in the drier, more fire-prone parts of the eastern and southwestern NWFP area are more unstable and less predictable owing to future 

projections of increased fire activity. 

Some studies from other regions in the Western United States (i.e., Southwest, 

Sierra Nevada) suggest that thinning and fuel reduction can mitigate carbon loss 

from fire. Fuel reduction may reduce losses of carbon at stand levels compared with 

the consequences of high-severity wildfire burning in stands with high fuel loads. 

However, because the probability of treated areas burning is generally low, and 

most live and dead biomass is not consumed by fire, fuel reduction is not generally 

considered a viable mitigation strategy because cumulative carbon losses from fuelreduction treatments are greater than losses from combustion. That said, thinning 

and prescribed fire (common fuel-reduction methods) can be viable climate adaptation tactics (table 2-1) for increasing stand heterogeneity and resilience to insects 

and pathogens, particularly in the dry and mesic forests of the Klamath and southern 

Cascade Range regions of California and southern Oregon. As the amount of fire on 

the landscape increases, the difference in carbon sequestration between untreated 

and treated landscapes declines, and the likelihood increases that thinning will pay 

off in respect to the overall carbon balance.
26

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Management Considerations

Considering the Range of Likely Variation in Change for 

Different Areas

Projections for climate and vegetation change represent a range of outcomes that 

can be used to estimate the potential magnitude of effects across the region, but 

they do not predict specific outcomes in terms of climate or vegetation conditions. 

When planning management activities, it is important to consider the variability 

in projections among ecoregions, as well as among landscapes and topographic 

settings within an ecoregion. 

Bet hedging—

Considering a variety of management approaches may be the best strategy when 

faced with a range of possible outcomes. “Bet hedging” strategies and multiple 

courses of action may help minimize risk and enable further learning. One strategy 

for dealing with this uncertainty in a planning context is to use scenarios and risk 

analysis. 

Dense, moist older forests may help buffer effects of warming at finer scales—

Maintaining dense late-successional forests may help mitigate effects of climate 

change and buffer warming at finer scales in moist vegetation zones where fires are 

infrequent. In addition to storing large amounts of carbon, late-successional forests 

also may provide refugia for species that depend on cooler, moist habitats. 

Topography can help guide landscape-scale treatment to increase resilience 

in older, dry forests—

In dry forest landscapes, maintaining large areas of dense, multilayered older 

forests is inconsistent with a strategy for increasing resilience to drought and fire. 

Landscape-scale treatments to reduce fuels by selectively thinning forest stands 

and using prescribed fire and managed wildfire may promote resilience in dry 

forests where historical fire regimes were interrupted during the 20th century. These 

activities can reduce vulnerability to high-severity fire during moderate weather 

conditions, and potentially reduce extensive outbreaks of pathogens and insects. 

Topography can provide a physical template to consider when designing and 

implementing landscape-scale treatments (e.g., thinning on dry ridges and around 

topographically sheltered refugia). 

Habitat connectivity may help some species but not all as the climate changes—

Maintaining and increasing habitat connectivity may facilitate migration of species experiencing unsuitable climatic conditions. However, connectivity needs 
27

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

are likely to differ among species, and generic connectivity measures may not be 

adequate for focal species. Where climate envelopes within the range of a given 

species are changing more rapidly than the species can migrate, assisted migration 

can promote genetic and phenotypic diversity and may help maintain forest cover, 

although the net benefits of this practice are uncertain and controversial in the 

scientific literature. 

Monitoring is essential to informed decisions and to help prioritize adaptive 

management objectives—

Monitoring of populations, species distributions, forest conditions, and contemporary disturbance regimes is essential to inform management decisions and help 

prioritize objectives for adaptive management in response to changes. Most species 

are expected to respond individually to projected changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and future forest communities may not have contemporary analogs. 

Understanding the responses of individual species, and how responses differ across 

their range, will be essential for developing strategies to promote species persistence and prioritize management efforts. However, little research on climate change 

effects exists for most species, with the exception of some of the major tree species. 

Conclusions

Despite the range of projections for future climate, vegetation, and disturbance 

change around the region, several key vulnerabilities are well supported by the body 

of scientific evidence. Most models agree that the region will experience warmer, 

drier summers and potentially warmer and wetter winters. Conditions are projected 

to exceed the 20th century range of variability around the 2050s, particularly in the 

Klamath Mountains and southern Cascade Range. Potential impacts in lower elevation, moist vegetation zones (i.e., western hemlock) include decreased growth and 

productivity, especially where species are already water limited during the growing 

season. Higher elevation forests, specifically the subalpine vegetation zone, will be 

most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. These forests types are likely to 

experience large decreases in area and may potentially be limited to refugia in the 

northern Cascades. Although there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding future 

vegetation change in dry forests, most models consistently agree on an increased 

role of fire in the 21st century, which is likely to include more area burned and larger 

patches of high-severity fire. Foremost among possible adaptation and mitigation 

strategies are “bet hedging” strategies that use multiple courses of action and enable 

further learning through monitoring and adaptive management. 
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Further Reading

Abatzoglou, J.T.; Rupp, D.E.; Mote, P.W. 2014. Seasonal climate variability and 

change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Journal of Climate. 27: 

2125–2142. 

Halofsky, J.E.; Peterson, D.L.; Prendeville, H.R. 2017. Assessing vulnerabilities 

and adapting to climate change in northwestern US forests. Climatic Change: 

1–14. doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1972-6.

Littell, J.S.; Peterson, D.L.; Riley, K.; Liu, Y.; Luce, C.H. 2016. A review of the 

relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States. Global Change 

Biology. 22: 2313–2632.

Reilly, M.J.; Dunn, C.J.; Meigs, G.W.; Spies, T.A.; Kennedy, R.E.; Bailey, J.D.; 

Briggs, K. 2017. Contemporary patterns of fire extent and severity in forests of 

the Pacific Northwest, USA (1985–2010). Ecosphere. 8(3): e01695. doi:10.1002/

ecs2.1695.

Reilly, M.J.; Spies, T.A. 2016. Disturbance, tree mortality, and implications for 

contemporary regional forest change in the Pacific Northwest. Forest Ecology 

and Management. 374: 102–110.

Reilly, M.J.; Spies, T.A.; Littell, J.; Butz, R.; Kim, J. 2018. Climate, disturbance, 

and vulnerability to vegetation change in the Northwest Forest Plan area. In: Spies, 

T.A.; Stine, P.A.; Gravenmier, R.; Long, J.W.; Reilly, M.J., tech. coords. Synthesis 

of science to inform land management within the Northwest Forest Plan area. Gen. 

Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-966. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 29–93. Chapter 2. https://www.

fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56339.

Restaino, J.C.; Peterson, D.L. 2013. Wildfire and fuel treatment effects on forest 

carbon dynamics in the Western United States. Forest Ecology and Management. 

303: 46–60.
29

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary
30

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Old-growth forest, Oswald West State Park, 

Oregon. Photo by David Patte, U.S. Fish and 

Wildlife Service.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Chapter 3: Old Growth, Disturbance, Forest 

Succession, and Management Within the 

Northwest Forest Plan Area

Thomas A. Spies, Paul F. Hessburg, Carl N. Skinner, Klaus J. Puettmann, 

Matthew J. Reilly, Raymond J. Davis, Jane A. Kertis, Jonathan W. Long, and 

David C. Shaw1

Main Points

• Moist old-growth forests and dry old-growth forests have key differences in 

their structure, function, and disturbance regimes.

• Conserving biodiversity is about more than protecting old-growth forests; 

it is also about maintaining processes, other successional stages, and forest 

dynamics at multiple scales. 

• Differences in disturbances regimes—particularly fire regimes—mean that 

different management techniques are needed to restore or conserve moist 

and dry old-growth forests and other successional stages.

• Although ecological differences between moist and dry forest regions were 

recognized in the Northwest Forest Plan (NWPF, or Plan), the focus in dry 

forests was on protecting dense, multilayered old growth rather than restoring and promoting resilience of forests to fire and climate change. 

• Active management within and outside of reserves in moist and dry forests 

is important for meeting many of the ecological goals of the Plan and for 

fostering ecological integrity, as emphasized by the 2012 planning rule. 

1 Thomas A. Spies is a senior scientist emeritus, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331; 

Paul F. Hessburg is a research landscape ecologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 1133 N Western Avenue., Wenatchee, WA 

98801; Carl N. Skinner is a geographer (retired), U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Redding, CA 96002; Klaus J. Puettmann is 

a professor, Oregon State University, College of Forestry, Corvallis, OR 97331; Matthew 

J. Reilly is a postdoctoral researcher, Humboldt State University, Department of Biological 

Sciences, 1 Harpst Street, Arcata, CA 95521; Raymond J. Davis is a wildlife biologist and 

Jane A. Kertis is an ecologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific 

Northwest Region, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331; Jonathan W. Long is 

an ecologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research 

Station, 1731 Research Park Drive, Davis, CA 95618; David C. Shaw is a professor, Oregon 

State University, Corvallis, OR 97331.
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Introduction

The scientific basis of conserving and restoring old-growth forest biodiversity rests 

on understanding how forest succession and disturbances differ across the NWFP 

area. The historical dynamics of moist and dry forest zones were very different, and 

forest dynamics also vary within these broad zones. Over the past 150 years, timber 

harvest and fire exclusion—including suppression of natural ignitions and curtailment of traditional burning practices by tribes in the region—and grazing have 

profoundly changed the forests of the Plan area. 

The NWFP was borne from threats to biodiversity and controversy in moist 

forests—specifically clearcutting of old growth and associated loss of nesting and 

roosting habitat for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina). However, 

human activity has led to more pervasive ecological changes in dry forests, which 

occupy about 43 percent of the Plan area. Dry forests have lost large, fire-resistant trees 

to logging; surface and canopy fuels, and their connectivity, have increased; and patch 

size and distribution of all seral stages have changed. These changes have affected all 

species and ecosystem processes in these forests. Habitat for some dense forest species 

has increased, for example, while open, old-growth forest and ecological resilience to 

fire and drought have decreased. 

Changes in moist forests are also significant, but the effects of logging and fire 

exclusion have been less extensive than in dry forests. In moist forests, intensive 

timber harvest has had the greatest impact on biodiversity because it dramatically 

reduced the amount of closed-canopy old-growth forests and fragmented the habitats of old-forest species. Fire exclusion in moist forests has also had an important 

but less obvious effect than in dry forests. Historically, fires created a patchwork of 

diverse seral stages across many moist forest landscapes, especially in drier parts of 

this zone. This patchwork is now highly altered. 

The 2012 planning rule added a new policy context for national forests in the 

NWFP area. The planning rule calls for managing for ecological integrity2 and 

species conservation by using a coarse-filter (ecosystem) approach. Fine-filter 

approaches (single species) may be used for a limited number of species when coarsefilter approaches are insufficient. Ecosystem approaches have the potential to rebuild 

ecosystem functions that promote resilience to fire and climate change. In doing so, 

threats to native species may be reduced, possibly minimizing the need to list more 

species under the Endangered Species Act. Approaches based on restoring or increas2 Ecological integrity is the condition of an ecosystem that occurs when its natural disturbance and successional processes operate and are within their natural range of variation and it 

can withstand or recover from most disturbances and stressors imposed by nature or humans.
33

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

ing resilience to fire and climate change are also more likely to be socially acceptable 

and contribute to the socioeconomic well-being of forest-based communities.

Chapter 3 of the NWFP science synthesis explains the current scientific understanding of old-growth forest conditions and successional dynamics in the Plan 

area, especially as they apply to conservation and restoration of forest ecosystems 

and landscapes. Below is a summary of the current state of knowledge.

Key Findings

“Old Growth” Differs in Moist and Dry Forests 

Differences between moist and dry older forests—

Tree density, spatial heterogeneity, and species composition of older forest differ in 

moist and dry forest zones. Older forests also differ geographically across disturbance regimes. Dense, multilayered old forests were typical of infrequent/highseverity fire regimes in the moist forests of the region (fig. 3-1), whereas relatively 

open, clumpy forests of pine, Douglas-fir, and 

other conifers were typical of very frequent/

low- and mixed-severity regimes in the dry 

forest landscapes (fig. 3-2). Dense, multilayered 

older forest in dry forest landscapes occurred 

in fire refugia (areas sheltered from frequent 

fire by features such as topography). Oldgrowth forest structure and composition was 

most diverse at landscape scales in the mixedseverity regimes of moist and dry forests and 

less diverse in low- and high-severity fire 

regime forests. 

Structural elements—

Structural elements common to all old-growth 

forests of the region include relatively large 

(24 in+/60 cm+ diameter at breast height) 

and old vigorous and decadent live (200 to 

250+ years old) and dead trees, and spatial 

heterogeneity of forest structure and composition, which was influenced by disturbance 

agents such as root rots, dwarf mistletoes, and 

wind. Other characteristics such as multiple 

canopy layers, shade-tolerant associates, Figure 3-2—An open, old-growth ponderosa pine forest in which the 

structure was maintained by frequent, low-severity fire.

Figure 3-1—This multilayered old-growth Douglas-fir/western hemlock forest on the Willamette National Forest is typical of infrequent/high-severity 

fire regimes in the moist forests of the region.

Tom Iraci Tom Iraci
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

and large amounts of dead and down wood are not characteristic of all old-growth 

forest types across the range of historical disturbance regimes in the Plan area. In 

addition, old-forest elements (e.g., old live and dead trees) are not restricted to older 

forests; they can also be found in predominantly younger forests and in areas of 

early-seral vegetation that developed after high-severity disturbance in older forests. 

Fire regimes in the region—

Four major regional fire regimes are recognized: two for moist forests and two for 

dry forests (fig. 3-3). 

In moist forests, the major historical fire regimes are: 

• Infrequent (greater than 200 years), high severity. 

• Moderately frequent to somewhat infrequent (50 to 200 years), 

mixed severity. 

In dry forests, the major regimes are:

• Frequent (15 to 50 years), mixed severity. 

• Very frequent (5 to 25 years), low severity. 

Fires of all severities occur in all four regimes, but the regimes differ in proportion 

and spatial pattern of the area burned by low-, mixed-, and high-severity fire. Of 

these four regimes, the mixed-severity regimes are the most variable and complex. 

The regional regime classification and map are only approximations. Local-scale 

fire regime characterizations are still needed for forest planning and management.

Defining old growth—

Definitions that recognize old-growth structural features as a continuum across 

stands of various ages and disturbance histories are more ecologically realistic 

and useful for restoration planning than are definitions of old growth with a single 

threshold that results in a forest being identified as either old growth or not. 

Current definitions of old growth used in monitoring are based on recent forest 

inventory plots. This means that definitions for dry fire-prone forests (including 

forests in some drier areas of the moist forest region), which have been heavily 

influenced by fire exclusion, are not reflective of historical forest structure and 

composition that were typical of those forest environments. Better definitions and 

stand-level reference conditions that reflect the variety of old-growth conditions of 

fire-prone forests are needed for conserving and restoring old-growth and landscape dynamics for fire-prone forest types, including vegetation communities with 

significant hardwood components.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Figure 3-3—Historical fire regimes of the Northwest Forest Plan area. Moist forests occur in historically infrequent and moderately frequent fire regimes, while dry forests occur in frequent and very 

frequent fire regimes.
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Forest Conservation Is About More Than Old-Growth Forests

Although forests with old trees were abundant across the NWFP area prior to EuroAmerican settlement, forest landscapes were typically a mosaic3

 of grasslands, 

woodlands, shrublands, hardwood forests, and younger conifer forests. Over the 

past several thousand years, the forests themselves were dynamic mosaics of successional stages that were often dominated by old-growth conditions. 

Early-seral or “pre-forest” vegetation is dominated by grasses, herbs, and shrubs. 

Most of this vegetation has the potential to become a forest, although it can take many 

decades for forests to naturally regenerate and form closed canopies (fig. 3-4). Earlyseral vegetation is an important component of many landscapes, and historically its 

occurrence varied over time with fluctuations in climate. High-severity or mixedseverity disturbances create early-seral conditions and provide distinctive biodiversity 

and ecosystem function across a range of spatial scales. The diverse young vegetation, 

along with dead trees and legacy trees that survived the disturbance, influence forest 

development, biotic communities, and ecosystem function for decades to centuries. 

All seral stages contribute to native forest biodiversity, wildfire regimes, and 

resilience to wildfires and climatic changes. They are all essential to maintaining 

ecosystem functions and services. Thus, conservation of native forest biodiversity is 

more than managing for a single type of old growth or a single successional stage. 

Conserving native forest biodiversity is about managing for mosaics of all vegetation types and processes that support them. 

Knowledge of historical disturbance regimes and successional dynamics is 

essential for conserving, restoring, and promoting resilience to climate change, 

fire, and other disturbances in old forests and all other successional stages. Moist 

and dry forests have fundamentally different disturbance regimes, developmental 

pathways, ecological potentials, and abundances and types of old-growth forests. 

Historical landscape diversity was linked to disturbances—

The spatial pattern of environments and vegetation conditions at the scale of landscapes (e.g., thousands of acres) varied across the disturbance regimes of the NWFP 

area. This landscape diversity also varied over time with changes in regional 

climate. Fires, for example, were relatively common in the moist forest region 

during the 1500s when the climate was warmer and many of the current old-growth 

Douglas-fir forests became established. The spatial and vegetation characteristics 

associated with the historical fire regimes are summarized below.

3 Even the wettest forest landscapes where fire was rare would have a diversity of vegetation 

patches as a result of riparian areas, wet meadows, thin soils, and patches of recent blowdown.
37

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

• Infrequent/high-severity fire regime of the moist forests. Early-seral 

vegetation was typically uncommon and the landscape was dominated 

by large patches of mature and dense older forests of complex structure. 

Successional stages were connected across time and space. Large patches 

of old growth originated from large patches of early-seral vegetation that 

were created by large stand-replacement fires. Patches of shrubs and hardwood trees occurred along larger streams. 

• Mixed-severity fire regime of the moist forests. A more dynamic and 

complex mosaic of well-connected and dispersed mature and older forests 

of more variable stand structure (e.g., multiple age cohorts of Douglas-fir) 

comprised these landscapes. They had patches of different ages and sizes 

of younger forests and early-seral vegetation, often containing remnant live 

and dead large, old trees. 

• Frequent/mixed-severity fire regime of the dry forests. This regime 

yielded a complex mosaic of forest structural types very strongly controlled by frequent fires, primarily of low to moderate severity. Dense 

older forest occurred in patches of different sizes and often associated 

with topography. 

Figure 3-4—Early-successional vegetation including tree regeneration 12 years after the 2003 B&B 

Fire in the western Cascade Range of Oregon. Note the considerable amounts of dead wood in this 

patch of high-severity fire. This legacy structure, along with the diverse young vegetation, will influence forest development, biotic communities, and ecosystem function for decades to centuries.

Thomas A. Spies
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

• The very frequent fire regimes were dominated by low-severity fire that 

maintained open old forest with infrequent patches of dense older forests found in fire refugia. Early-seral successional conditions would have 

occurred as small, sinuous patches that blended into areas with older trees. 

In steep, highly dissected topography (e.g., southwest Oregon and northwest 

California), the mosaic of forest conditions was more strongly expressed as 

a function of topography and fine-scale variability in disturbance regimes 

and successional pathways. 

Fire exclusion from suppression and other factors has affected vegetation 

conditions in both moist and dry forests. The effects of fire exclusion in dry forests, 

e.g., fuel buildup, are widely known. Less well known are the effects of fire exclusion in moist forests, especially in the drier part of the zone where historical fires 

were more frequent, mixed-severity effects were more common, and seral-stage 

patchworks were more varied. The primary effect of fire exclusion in moist forests 

is a reduction in early-successional vegetation and seral-stage diversity on the 

landscape, and reduced structural variety of old-growth forests that were subject to 

low- and moderate-severity fires. 

Considering Fire and Forest Dynamics in Reserves 

Reserves play a pivotal role for conserving biological diversity in the face of development and many extractive land uses. The literature also indicates that goals and 

management guidelines for reserves need to be clearly defined. Management within 

reserves may be needed to restore ecological processes and patterns that have been 

altered by past land use—including timber harvest—fire exclusion, and invasive 

species. Relatively little research exists, however, on how to manage reserves—

especially in fire-prone landscapes—when disturbance and climate regimes are 

changing in ways that can lead to relatively abrupt changes in the abundance and 

boundaries of successional stages and the pattern of physical environments. 

Status and trends of old-growth forests in late-successional reserves—

The late-successional reserves (LSRs) of the NWFP area were intended to protect 

remaining old-growth forests from logging. They were also intended to promote future 

development of old-growth forest structure through restoration silviculture in existing 

plantations. Some losses of old-growth forests to fire were expected. To help mitigate 

this loss, a large proportion of the Plan area was designated as reserves, and many LSRs 

were relatively large (e.g., >50,000 ac [20 200 ha]). Risk-reduction actions in LSRs in 

dry forests also were recommended to reduce the risk of losing dense forest patches to 

fire, but the focus was on younger forests, and few fuel treatments actually occurred.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

At the scale of the NWFP area, less than 8 percent of older forest was lost due 

to wildfire and logging over the 20 years of the NWFP and most of that loss was 

to wildfire. Significant gains from succession have offset almost two-thirds of the 

losses from high-severity disturbance. However, old-growth dynamics differed 

geographically and with scale. Some areas, especially the dry forests of the Klamath region in Oregon and California, have had much higher net losses mainly from 

a few large fires. Larger LSRs (>50,000 ac [20 200 ha]) had smaller percentage 

losses than smaller LSRs.

The overall NWFP reserve strategy, which focused on conserving closedcanopy older forests, is currently meeting many of the expectations of the NWFP. 

However, these trends may not hold with climate change that is leading to elevated 

mortality of old trees, growth reductions from pathogens and insects, and more 

frequent and larger patches of high-severity fire that are promoted by dense older 

forests with continuous canopy fuels and elevated surface fuel loads. 

The 2012 planning rule emphasis on managing for ecological integrity (see 

definition above) sets a new context for conservation on national forests that has 

implications for management of the LSRs. The planning rule broadens the focus 

of conservation of biological diversity to ecological integrity and management 

based on historical dynamics. This is a broader view of coarse-filter conservation than that of the NWFP, which emphasized one successional stage: dense, 

multilayered old growth. However, basing management on the natural range 

of variation or historical dynamics is only meant to be a guide and not a target 

because changes in climate and other human influences may alter what conditions can be sustained. 

The 80-year rule—

Under the NWFP, harvesting for any goal, including thinning for old-growth restoration, is generally restricted in moist forest LSRs to stands less than 80 years old. 

The scientific rationale for using 80 years as the threshold age for stand restoration 

in LSRs has not improved much since the NWFP was established. The rule was 

based on expert opinion of stand development from data collected in natural forests 

of different ages, primarily from the western hemlock zone. 

Eighty years is a one-size-fits-all threshold that does not recognize that stand 

age is a rough proxy for stand structure and development potential, both of which 

can vary greatly based on site conditions and disturbance history. Depending on 

the structure and composition of stands, and landscape context and objectives, 

restoration treatments in moist forests more than 80 years old in LSRs could promote 

old-growth characteristics (e.g., heterogeneity associated with mixed-severity fire) or 

reduce them (e.g., by reducing the number of large live and dead trees). 
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Note that the situation in moist forests is not the same as in dry forests (and 

some drier parts of moist forests), where active management in older forests in 

LSRs may be needed to meet ecological integrity and resilience goals. 

Alternative silviculture—

The use of alternative silviculture to meet both wood production and ecological 

goals in stands more than 80 years old in the NWFP matrix of the moist forests 

remains valid, based on current studies. Studies of variable-retention4

 silviculture 

suggest that some biodiversity elements (e.g., large live and dead trees and some 

other taxa) of older forests can be retained in stands managed for a combination of 

timber and structural and compositional diversity. 

Mismatch Between Goals for Late-Successional Reserves 

and Dry Forest Ecology

The options presented in the Forest Ecosystem Management Assessment Team’s 

(FEMAT) 1993 report set the foundation for the NWFP. These options emphasized 

science based heavily on moist-zone forest ecology and the standards and guidelines for LSRs in moist forests are most consistent with managing for ecological 

integrity under the new planning rule. However, the science of the NWFP did not 

adequately deal with substantially different ecology of forests and landscapes of the 

dry forest zone, which comprises almost half of the NWFP area. The standards and 

guidelines of the NWFP in these forests, which emphasize conserving and restoring 

dense older forests, are generally not consistent with management for ecological 

integrity and resilience to fire and drought. 

Cultivating Resilience to Climate Change and Fire

Given the realities of climate change, land use change, and invasive species, 

landscape restoration is not about re-creating past conditions, it is more about promoting landscapes that are resilient to these and other disturbance agents and are 

able to support native species. Future climates, disturbance regimes, and forests 

will differ from those of the past, but understanding historical ecology can help us 

identify possible paths to achieving desired ecosystems in the future. Management 

actions and the dynamics of ecosystems that are beyond the control of managers 

(e.g., changes in climate and movement of species) will determine the nature of 

future forests. 

4 Variable-retention silviculture seeks to retain forest structural elements for at least one 

forest cycle to maintain environmental values associated with structurally complex forests.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Management Considerations 

Management of Late-Successional Reserves Differs in 

Moist and Dry Forests

• The goals here include protection of old growth from logging and highseverity wildfire. Given the losses and fragmented nature of moist 

old-growth forest, further losses to high-severity fire are undesirable. 

Focusing on restoration (such as variable-density thinning) in LSRs with 

moist forest plantations makes sense from a conservation perspective and 

can provide jobs and economic returns. However, there will be tradeoffs 

with some ecological goals (e.g., amounts of dead wood) that will need 

mitigation or reconciliation.

• Despite increases in fires in recent decades, wildfire in the region is still 

less frequent than it was historically for most forest types. However, when 

dry forests burn now under extreme weather, they are more likely to include 

large patches of high-severity fire that kill most or all of the fire-resistant 

older trees and create highly altered landscape-scale patch patterns. In the 

absence of fire, dry forest structure and composition are shifting toward 

denser forests and shade-tolerant species that lack resistance to wildfire, 

drought, and other disturbance agents. 

• The increased emphasis on ecological integrity and coarse-filter 

approaches for conserving biodiversity under the 2012 planning rule, and 

awareness of threats from climate change and wildfire, appear to justify a 

reassessment of the reserve network and standards and guidelines in both 

moist and dry forests.

Promoting Seral Diversity in Plantations and Other Forests 

Older Than 80 Years in the Matrix

• Restoring fire or using fire surrogates (e.g., variable-density thinning) are 

strategies to promote early-successional vegetation and diversity in plantations and forests older than 80 years in the matrix. These could be used to 

rebuild bigger patches and blend seral-stage conditions to alter the structure 

of the fragmented landscape. This type of management could be a win-win 

for meeting ecological and timber goals. Managing for diverse early-seral 

stages would require developing landscape-scale prescriptions to ensure 

that old-growth goals could still be met.
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Restoration Strategies for Cultivating Resilience to Climate 

Change and Fire 

• Variable-density or low thinning in plantations in moist and dry forests to 

increase ecological heterogeneity and accelerate growth of large trees and 

tree crowns. 

• Variable-density or low thinning along with prescribed fire in burning 

older forests in very frequent/low-severity and frequent/mixed-severity 

fire regime forests. These would be done to increase resilience to fire and 

climate change by restoring diverse and fire-tolerant structures and compositions of older forests, and of other successional stages, that will ultimately 

succeed to old-forest conditions. 

• Careful use of prescribed fire and managed wildfires in fire-prone low- and 

mixed-severity fire regime forests to restore key ecological processes while 

protecting critical areas of dense, older forest conditions and other values 

that may not be resilient to fire. 

• Creating diverse early-successional habitat where feasible, given other 

ecological goals and social constraints. The strategy for doing this could 

include variable-retention silviculture and prescribed fire in plantations and 

in forests more than 80 years old. Such practices are allowed in the NWFP 

in the matrix and may be appropriate if they are consistent with other 

landscape goals (e.g., creating or maintaining resilience to fire and climate 

change, providing habitat for spotted owls, and creating landscape-scale 

successional diversity).

• Using landscape-level management and conservation principles based on 

disturbance regimes, topography, species-specific climate refugia, spatial 

pattern, and departure from desired historical conditions.

• Management actions that promote resilience to wildfire and drought in 

fire-prone forest landscapes include thinning and prescribed fire to promote 

growth and restoration of large fire-resistant trees; reducing the vertical 

and horizontal continuity of forest fuels; restoring the patchwork of open 

and close canopy forests and tailoring these conditions to topography; 

and strategic work in forests with native diseases and insects to promote 

heterogeneity. These actions would promote a more desirable mix of low-, 

mixed-, and high-severity fires on the landscape.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Considering the Ecological Tradeoffs Between Management 

Actions and No Action

All management (including restoration activities and lack of activities) involves 

ecological tradeoffs. The effects of management actions can differ by spatial scale 

and time period. Multiscale and multitemporal analysis can reveal how ecological 

tradeoffs and management effects differ with scale. Below are some possible restoration strategies and tradeoffs to consider.

• Restoration thinning (e.g., variable density) can provide small short-term 

patches of early-seral habitat, accelerate the development of large live trees, 

increase habitat quality for some species, and be profitable. Thinning, however, may have short- or long-term impacts on habitat quality for other latesuccessional species, may increase activity of forest insects and pathogens, 

and can reduce amounts of dead wood in the future. 

• Thinning and restoring fire to forests with a history of very frequent fire 

can increase resilience to wildfire and increase habitat for fire-dependent 

species that use more open, older forests. However, these actions can 

degrade habitat for species that use dense older forests, which developed 

because of fire exclusion. 

• Continued suppression of fire in fire-prone dry-zone forests to protect 

human values will increase surface and canopy fuel continuity. This 

increases the potential for large patches of high-severity fire when fires 

escape suppression and burn under extreme conditions. 

• Excluding fire and disturbance from dry-zone forests will also typically 

increase stand density and species composition toward late-successional 

species and species that use dense forests; it lowers the resilience of these 

forests to fire and drought. These changes can also accelerate the loss of 

large, fire-resistant trees that may not be replaced owing to competition 

from shade-tolerant trees. 

• Excluding fire from moist forests (especially in the drier parts of the moist 

forests) reduces landscape diversity and the area of diverse early- and midsuccessional vegetation. 

• Salvage logging after wildfire does not typically generate ecological benefits for species and processes associated with patches of high-severity 

wildfire. In some cases, however, where fire exclusion led to uncharacteristically dense forests, post-wildfire management may facilitate restoration of 
44

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

reference conditions or resilience of the site and soil to future fire by reducing the amount of standing and down fuels. Post-wildfire management can 

reduce safety hazards for future fire suppression activities. 

• Tradeoffs among goals are particularly obvious in managing road networks 

because portions of some existing networks can negatively affect some 

native species and ecosystem processes. However, road networks also can 

support landscape restoration, fire management, and active management to 

support other ecological and socioeconomic goals.

Conclusions

The NWFP began as a novel and comprehensive scientifically based policy 

experiment to conserve forest biodiversity associated with late-successional and 

old-growth forest habitats. Although intended as a 100-year plan, the Plan was also 

intended to be adaptive and subject to change based on monitoring results and new 

scientific findings and perspectives. Although monitoring indicates that the Plan 

is meeting some of its original ecological goals (e.g., protecting dense old-growth 

forests), new concerns (e.g., climate change and altered fire regimes) have arisen, 

and new policy goals have been added. 

The 2012 planning rule, which calls for increased emphasis on managing for 

ecological integrity, broadens the original ecological focus of the Plan to include 

ecosystem-scale processes such as natural disturbances that control the dynamic 

mosaic of vegetation in a landscape. Dense old-growth forests are still an important 

conservation consideration to be addressed through reserves and management for 

ecological goals. However, regional differences in the ecology of moist and dry 

forests have become apparent, as has awareness that other successional stages (e.g., 

early seral) and old-growth types (open, fire-frequent old growth) are important for 

regional forest biodiversity and ecosystem integrity. 

Our understanding of forest ecology leads us to conclude that current standards 

and guidelines for late-successional reserves in dry forests, and some drier parts 

of the moist forests, do not provide for ecological integrity consistent with the 

historical fire regimes and future climate conditions. Active management within 

and outside of reserves in moist and dry forests is still important for meeting many 

of the ecological goals of the Plan, although there will be tradeoffs in ecological 

outcomes among different management approaches. The spatial distribution of 

reserves appears to provide a good regional foundation for addressing climate 

change on federal lands. However, managers may want to reassess the reserve 
45

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

network and standards and guidelines in both moist and dry forest zones to address 

climate change and the role that frequent fire has played in maintaining resilience of 

dry forests to climate change, fire, and other natural disturbance agents. 

Development, evaluation, and testing of new, highly integrated conservation 

approaches is crucial to dealing with new knowledge and changing perspectives on 

fire regimes, climate change, and invasive species. Explicitly acknowledging the 

tradeoffs among biodiversity goals (e.g., coarse-filter and fine-filter approaches) and 

between the ecological and social dimensions of forest management is important 

moving forward. 

Further Reading 

Davis, R.J.; Ohmann, J.L.; Kennedy, R.E.; Cohen, W.B.; Gregory, M.J.; Yang, 

Z.; Roberts, H.M.; Gray, A.N.; Spies T.A. 2015. Northwest Forest Plan—the 

first 20 years (1994–2013): status and trends of late-successional and old-growth 

forests. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-911. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 112 p.

Franklin, J.F.; Johnson, K.N. 2012. A restoration framework for federal forests 

in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of Forestry. 110(8): 429–439.

Hessburg, P.F.; Churchill, D.J.; Larson, A.J.; Haugo, R.D.; Miller, C.; Spies, 

T.A.; North, M.P.; Povak, N.A.; Belote, R.T.; Singleton, P.H.; Gaines, W.L. 

2015. Restoring fire-prone Inland Pacific landscapes: seven core principles. 

Landscape Ecology. 30(10): 1805–1835.

Reilly, M.J.; Dunn, C.J.; Meigs, G.W.; Spies, T.A.; Kennedy, R.E.; Bailey, 

J.D.; Briggs, K. 2017. Contemporary patterns of fire extent and burn severity in 

forests of the Pacific Northwest (1985-2010). Ecosphere. 8(3). 

Spies, T.A.; Hessburg, P.F.; Skinner, C.N.; Puettmann, K.J.; Reilly, M.J.; 

Davis, R.J.; Kertis, J.A.; Long, J.W.; Shaw, D.C. 2018. Old-growth, 

disturbance, forest succession, and management in the area of the Northwest 

Forest Plan. In: Spies, T.A.; Stine, P.A.; Gravenmier, R.; Long, J.W.; Reilly, 

M.J., tech. coords. Synthesis of science to inform land management within the 

Northwest Forest Plan area. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-966. Portland, OR: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 

95–243. Chapter 3. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56340.
46

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

A northern spotted owl in the McKenzie River Basin 

in Oregon. Photo by John and Karen Hollingsworth, 

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
47

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Chapter 4: Northern Spotted Owl

Damon B. Lesmeister, Raymond J. Davis, Peter H. Singleton, and J. David Wiens1

Main Points

• Steady declines in northern spotted owl populations have been identified in 

every study that has assessed rangewide populations of the owl since standardized monitoring efforts began in 1985.

• Competitive interactions with barred owls have contributed significantly 

to spotted owl declines. The barred owl is a more prominent and complex 

threat to the spotted owl than was anticipated by the Northwest Forest Plan 

(NWFP, or Plan). 

• Suitable nesting and roosting habitat for spotted owls has declined. The 

effects of forest disturbance on spotted owls—whether wildfire, forest management, timber harvests, extreme weather events, or insects and disease—

depend on the spatial scale, severity, and the season in which it occurs.

• Without additional intervention, the long-term persistence of spotted owls 

in the NWFP area is questionable.

Introduction

In 1990, the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) (spotted owl hereafter) (fig. 4-1) was listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act. 

At the time, habitat loss from timber harvest and wildfire was the major identified 

threat to the spotted owl. The first recovery plan focused on providing adequate 

amounts of suitable forest cover to sustain this subspecies. This concept drove the 

design of late-successional forest reserves in the NWFP, along with the emphasis on 

fostering development of old-forest characteristics. 

The reserve design included large, contiguous blocks of late-successional forest. 

This was expected to provide habitat for many interacting pairs of spotted owls. 

The reserves were configured to facilitate movement across the geographic range. 

The selection of reserves generally favored old-growth forest, but some younger 

forests were also included with the expectation that, over time, the forest structure 

would develop suitable characteristics to sustain suitable owl populations. 

1 Damon B. Lesmeister is a research wildlife biologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 

97331; Raymond J. Davis is the northern spotted owl and old-growth monitoring lead, 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331; Peter H. Singleton is a research wildlife biologist, U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 1133 N 

Western Avenue, Wenatchee, WA 98801; and J. David Wiens is a research wildlife biologist, U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem 

Science Center, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331. 
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

For at-risk species, understanding their survival and reproduction rates, and 

factors that affect these rates over time and space, can provide crucial information 

for management and conservation. As such, population trends and demographics of 

spotted owls have been monitored closely in the intervening years. Since its listing, 

demographic rates have been monitored in 14 study areas distributed across the 

spotted owl’s geographic range. 

Chapter 4 of the NWFP science synthesis synthesizes 20 years of spotted owl 

science, focusing particularly on scientific understanding accumulated from 2005 

to 2016. We also review key information concerning the ecology of the spotted owl 

and expectations for its conservation under the Plan. Here, we provide highlights 

from chapter 4.

Key Findings

Steady Declines in Spotted Owl Populations Since 

Implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan

The spotted owl monitoring program follows a general framework to estimate demographic parameters and population trends across the owl’s geographic range. In the 

past 10 years, three meta-analyses investigated relationships between the population 

demography of spotted owls and distribution of suitable forest cover types, local and 

regional variation in climate, and presence of barred owls (Strix varia).

Figure 4-1—The northern spotted owl is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. 

Providing adequate amounts of suitable forest cover for the owl was a primary driver of the reserve 

design and old-forest restoration under the Northwest Forest Plan.

Eric Guzman
49

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

• When the NWFP was developed, spotted owl populations were declining 

at an estimated 4.5 percent per year. 

• This decline was expected to continue for up to 50 years until younger forest in the reserves had matured and could provide suitable structural conditions for nesting and roosting. 

• During the first 10 years of the NWFP, the overall rate of population decline 

in Washington was much greater than in Oregon and California. Three study 

areas in southern Oregon had stable populations during the first decade. 

• The first meta-analysis (published in 2006) revealed an annual decline of 

3.7 percent across the NWFP area. 

• On federal lands, populations had declined 2.4 percent annually compared to 

a 5.8-percent annual decline on nonfederal lands, suggesting that implementation of the NWFP had a positive effect on the demography of spotted owls. 

• The second meta-analysis (published in 2011) estimated an annual decline 

of 2.9 percent within the eight federal study areas. 

• The most recent meta-analysis (published in 2016) indicated that spotted 

owl populations were declining by about 3.8 percent per year throughout 

the range, and declines ranged from 1.2 to 8.4 percent per year depending 

on the study area. Annual rates of decline were accelerating in many areas. 

• For monitored populations, population change was more sensitive to adult 

survival than to recruitment. 

Because of the decline documented in these and other studies, the U.S. Fish 

and Wildlife Service has been petitioned to change the status of the northern 

spotted owl from threatened to endangered under the Endangered Species Act.

Defining Spotted Owl Habitat 

Differences in defining habitat have long caused confusion and uncertainty when 

interpreting the amount of spotted owl habitat and trends regarding gains or losses. 

Habitat for a species is an area that encompasses the necessary combination of 

resources and environmental conditions that promote occupancy, survival, and 

reproduction of that species. 

Spotted owl habitat has often been characterized as older forests with large 

trees and a moderate to closed canopy. An advantage of characterizing spotted 

owl habitat based on forest structure is that these forest types can be mapped for 

the species’ entire range. Other important components of habitat include prey 

abundance, predation risk, and the presence of competitors. These components are 
50

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

more difficult, if not impossible, to map rangewide. As such, no published model 

of spotted owl habitat completely reflects the owls’ habitat. Here we distinguish 

between spotted owl habitat and components of that habitat. 

Suitable forest for the northern spotted owl—

The NWFP monitoring program considers highly suitable forest to be:

• Multilayered, multispecies forest canopy dominated by large conifer 

trees (>30 in [76 cm] diameter at breast height [d.b.h.]).

• An understory of shade-tolerant conifers or hardwoods. 

• Moderate to high (60 to 80 percent) canopy cover. 

• Substantial decadence in the form of large, live coniferous trees with 

deformities; numerous large snags; large accumulations of logs; and 

other woody debris. 

Mapping of suitable forest cover types is evolving to produce maps that 

describe a more comprehensive view of habitat. However, even the most recent 

modeling efforts are not able to reflect the distribution and abundance of prey and 

barred owls and how that restricts spotted owl distribution in otherwise suitable 

forest types.

Concentrated areas of older forest are most suitable for nesting and roosting, but a moderate mixture of other forest conditions can have positive effects 

on the vital rates of spotted owls at the territory scale because other forest types 

and edges are often used for foraging. Spotted owls typically select for abundant, 

structurally diverse closed-canopy forest with diffuse late-seral forest edge at the 

territory scale, and relatively contiguous old forest in nesting areas. Individual 

owls in territories with more suitable forest cover typically had better survival, 

fecundity, occupancy dynamics, recruitment, and rate of population change. 

The late-successional reserves within the Plan area were designed to support 

multiple pairs of spotted owls and were configured to facilitate dispersal across their 

range. Under the NWFP, dispersal was expected to be facilitated through designated 

riparian reserves, retention of green trees in harvest units in the matrix, protection of 

100-ac (40-ha) areas at known owl sites, and other administratively withdrawn areas. 

However, these assumptions are largely untested. It remains unknown if the NWFP 

is sufficient to facilitate adequate dispersal, which may be a limiting factor of spotted 

owl populations.
51

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Nesting and roosting habitat has declined but projected trends on federal land 

are encouraging—

• About 12.6 million ac (5.1 million ha) of forest suitable for nesting and roosting were distributed across the spotted owl’s geographic range at the time 

of NWFP development. By 2012, suitable nesting/roosting forest cover had 

decreased 3.4 percent. 

• Net decreases during 1993–2012 were 1.5 percent on federal lands (primarily 

caused by wildfire) and 8.3 percent on nonfederal lands (primarily caused by 

timber harvest). 

• Most losses occurred in the western Cascade Range and Klamath Mountains, 

whereas gains through forest succession primarily occurred in the Coast Range 

of California (fig. 4-2). 

Figure 4-2—Loss and recruitment of forest types suitable for nesting and roosting by spotted owls in 1993 versus 2012 within 

19 mi (30 km) hexagons. The gains in the Coast Range of California occurred primarily through forest succession. Most 

losses occurred because of timber harvest and large wildfires.

Percentage of area

0 to 10

10 to 20

20 to 30

30 to 40

40 to 50

50 to 60

60 to 70

70 to 80

80 to 90

90 to 100

7

3 2

5

8

10

1

6

12

11

9 7

3 2

5

8

10

1

6

12

11

9 7

3 2

5

8

10

1

6

12

11

9

1993 2012 Net change

 1. Olympic Peninsula (Washington)

 2. Western Lowlands (Washington)

 3. Western Cascades (Washington)

 4. Eastern Cascades (Washington)

 5. Coast Range (Oregon)

 6. Willamette Valley (Oregon)

 7. Western Cascades (Oregon)

 8. Klamath (Oregon)

 9. Eastern Cascades (Oregon)

10. Coast Range (California)

11. Klamath (California)

12. Cascades (California)

Physiographic provinces

Percentage of change

>5% loss

2.5 to 5% loss

1 to 2.5% loss

<1% change

1 to 2.5% gain

2.5 to 5% gain

>5% gain

4 4 4
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

• Originally, older forests comprised about 43 percent of the late-successional 

reserves. In 20 to 30 years from now, older forest cover in these reserves is 

expected to be 60 percent or more, meeting the threshold assumed to support multiple breeding pairs of spotted owls and population recovery. This 

significant recruitment of suitable nesting and roosting habitat is expected 

to offset current rates of loss. 

The Barred Owl Is a Prominent 

and Complex Threat

Once confined to eastern North America, the 

barred owl (fig. 4-3) now co-occupies and outnumbers spotted owls throughout the NWFP 

area (fig. 4-4). Barred owl populations may 

continue to increase in the Pacific Northwest, 

depending on the availability of resources—

such as habitat and prey—that vary by forest 

composition and climate. 

Compared to spotted owls, barred owls 

are more generalist in diet and habitat. They 

have higher annual survival, more offspring, 

and smaller home ranges. Barred owls aggressively defend their territories. This can lead to 

increased local extinction rates and mortality 

for spotted owls through agonistic interactions 

(dominant behavior and territoriality) and 

direct killings by barred owls (fig. 4-5). Several 

lines of evidence indicate that the increasing abundance of barred owl has a strong 

and negative affect on spotted owl populations: 

1. Spotted owl occupancy of historical territories is lower.

2. Apparent survival is lower.

3. Reproduction is lower.

4. Population declines more rapidly.

5. Hybridization between the species increases.

6. Detection rates during surveys are lower.

7. Spotted owls alter movements and resource use.

Figure 4-3—A barred owl. Barred owls are causing further declines 

in northern spotted owl populations. The recent invader is slightly 

larger than northern spotted owls, has a more diverse diet, and uses 

a broader range of forest conditions for nesting.

Patrick Kolar
53

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Figure 4-4—Annual increase 

in the proportion of spotted owl 

territories with detections of 

barred owls at study areas in 

the Northwest Forest Plan area. 

Estimates for Green Diamond 

are presented separately for 

control and treatment areas 

for barred owl removals (from 

Dugger et al. 2016). 

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

Barred owl covariate

1989

199119931995199719992001

2003

200520072009

2011

2013

Washington

Cle Elum

Rainier

Olympia

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

Barred owl covariate

1988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012

Oregon

Coast Range

H.J. Andrews

Tyee

Klamath

South Cascades

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

Barred owl covariate

198519881991199419972000200320062009

2012

California

Northwest California

Hoopa

Green Diamond

Green Diamond—treatment

Green Diamond—control

A

B

C

Year
54

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Adult survival of both spotted owls and barred owls was higher in home ranges 

with greater amounts of old forest. Dietary studies also showed that barred owl diet 

is broader than that of spotted owls, but both species relied on similar prey associated with older forest types. 

These findings have important implications for land managers because they 

suggest that (1) barred owls are able to exploit resources that would otherwise be 

available to spotted owls, and (2) availability of old forests is a key limiting factor 

in the competitive relationship between the two owl species. Although spotted owls 

are known to use recently thinned stands, it remains unclear how such silvicultural 

treatments can affect the fitness of spotted owls in the long term, or how barred 

owls may respond to those management actions. Silvicultural treatments that 

Figure 4-5—Mean annual local extinction rates (with 95 percent confidence limits) for northern 

spotted owls in 11 study areas relative to with (gray triangles) and without (black circles) barred owls 

(from Dugger et al. 2016). 

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0

Local extinction rate (ε)

Without barred owl

With barred owl

Study area

Cle Elum

Rainier

Olympic

Coast Ranges

H.J. Andrews

Tyee

Klamath

South Cascades, Oregon

Northwest California

Hoopa

Green Diamond
55

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

greatly simplify a stand likely increase long-term extinction rates of spotted owls by 

reducing forest complexity and thus suitability for spotted owls, but not necessarily 

for barred owls.

Without additional intervention, the long-term persistence of spotted 

owls is questionable— 

Despite continued management and conservation of suitable forest cover on 

federal lands, the long-term persistence of spotted owls is questionable without 

additional management intervention. Experimental removal of barred owls on one 

study area in California suggests that removal of barred owls may have positive effects on population trends of spotted owls. The Fish and Wildlife Service 

expanded removal experiments to additional sites, and those experiments will 

yield information about how spotted owls respond and will convey the economic 

and logistic feasibility of barred owl removal efforts as potential management 

actions. However, the effectiveness and feasibility of large-scale and long-term 

barred owl removal for conservation of spotted owls remain to be demonstrated. 

More detailed studies are needed to better understand how specific tree species, 

stand densities, or physiographic conditions are negatively associated with barred 

owls but not spotted owls.

Although some evidence suggests that barred owls are more strongly associated with riparian areas than spotted owls, studies clearly indicate that barred owls 

exploit virtually all prey and forest types used by spotted owls. In the eastern Cascades, spotted owls used drier midslope areas that were less likely to be occupied 

by barred owls, possibly as a mechanism to minimize interactions with barred owls. 

This pattern suggests that barred owls displace spotted owls from highly suitable 

forest, pushing spotted owls into conditions less favorable to fitness. This finding is 

consistent with long-term demographic studies of spotted owls. 

In addition to impacts on spotted owls, changes in the abundance and distribution of an apex predator like the barred owl can have cascading effects on prey 

populations and food web dynamics. Differences in space use, abundance, demography, suitable forest, diets, and behavior collectively suggest that the barred owl is 

not a direct functional replacement of the spotted owl in old-growth forest ecosystems. As a consequence, additional changes in community structure and ecosystem 

processes are anticipated as a result of barred owl encroachment.
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

How Does Forest Disturbance Affect Spotted Owls?

Wildfire, forest management, timber harvest, extreme weather events, and insects 

and disease: these types of forest disturbance occur throughout the NWFP area. 

Their effects on spotted owls depends on the spatial scales, severity, and season in 

which they occur. 

A disturbance that opens the forest canopy can reduce habitat suitability in 

the short term. Benefits may develop over time, however, as understory vegetation 

diversifies in response to more light and less competition for moisture, and development of large-tree, complex forest structure is accelerated. Forest disturbances can 

create conditions that increase the abundance or vulnerability of some prey species. 

Conversely, if critical forest structure required by primary prey populations is lost, 

the disturbance can have a negative effect.

Processes that substantially simplify stand structure or landscapes often have 

negative impacts on forest suitability. Over the past 20 years, there has been a growing recognition of the contribution of diverse forest conditions to broader ecosystem 

function and species diversity. This is especially true in historically moderate- and 

high-frequency fire regime landscapes where fire suppression and forest management have greatly reduced fire and altered forest structure and composition. For 

example, nonconiferous vegetation, including shrubs and broad-leaved trees, makes 

an important contribution to the diversity of forest landscapes. Allowing shrubs and 

hardwood trees to develop and persist in early-seral stands, and curtailing vegetation control, will benefit many wildlife species. 

The function and diversity of an ecosystem is enhanced by the presence of highquality, early-seral patches because they have high species and structural diversity. 

These early-seral ecosystems can be created by using low-intensity approaches to 

regeneration, combined with retention of biological legacies to promote the development of structurally diverse closed-canopy forest. Indeed, under normal conditions, 

natural disturbances frequently result in patches of high-quality early-seral ecosystems, provided that intensive salvage and replanting does not occur post-disturbance.

Wildfire—

Most studies that measured the effects of wildfire on spotted owls focused on shortterm effects, and different studies often had seemingly contradictory results. One 

of the few longer term studies, based on 26 years of demographic data of wildfire 

on spotted owls, found that moderate and high burn severities negatively affected 

spotted owl apparent survival (Rockweit et al. 2017). Spotted owls can persist, at 

least for short periods, in landscapes that have experienced recent wildfires, as long 

as an adequate amount of suitable forest cover remains.
57

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Spotted owls are adapted to a landscape with a mosaic of successional stages 

shaped by historical disturbance regimes, accompanied by abundant prey resources, 

no barred owls, structurally diverse closed-canopy forest with diffuse late-seral 

edge at the territory scale, and limited fragmentation within nesting areas. Some 

spatial heterogeneity in forest conditions can have a positive effect on the demography of spotted owls.

The dry-forest provinces in the NWFP area historically experienced frequent 

wildfire, typically of low to mixed severity. After more than a century of fire 

exclusion, stand density in many of these forests has significantly increased 

and forest health has declined. The historical extent of suitable forest types for 

spotted owls in dry forest was likely limited. In this fire-prone landscape, forest 

conditions that are more resilient to low- and mixed-severity fires are generally 

not suitable for nesting and roosting by spotted owls. Areas occupied by spotted 

owls in these landscapes are often dense, closed-canopy forests with a substantial 

true fir component and structural diversity. These conditions have been promoted 

through fire suppression except in topographic refugia such as drainage bottoms 

where dense forests often persist despite frequent fires.

Postfire salvage logging—

At the territory scale, a mosaic of older forest interspersed with other vegetation 

types can be beneficial, but spotted owls do not persist in areas with past timber 

harvest, high-severity fire, and salvage logging. Coupling wildfire and salvage logging results in a high probability that a site will become unoccupied by spotted owls 

for several decades. 

Postfire salvage logging can have other significant negative consequences 

to a forest ecosystem, especially when conducted over large areas. The practice 

disrupts abiotic and biotic processes, reduces or eliminates biological legacies, 

simplifies post-disturbance structural complexity, alters vegetation recovery, 

diminishes natural patterns of landscape heterogeneity, facilitates invasion of 

nonnative species, decreases native biodiversity, increases susceptibility to erosion 

and repeated high-severity disturbances, and eliminates the restorative benefits of 

disturbance events.

Forest restoration treatments—

In the drier forests of the NWFP area, management treatments have focused on 

accelerating the development of old forest conditions and on restoring or promoting 

fire-resilient forest structure, species composition, and landscape pattern. The large 

tree, multistory canopy forest covers used for nesting and roosting by spotted owls 
58

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

is less flammable under most fire conditions. But these cover types are susceptible 

to burning intensely in extreme weather. 

Land managers implementing forest restoration treatments face challenges in 

balancing the tradeoffs between short-term negative impacts versus potential benefits of reducing losses from high-severity wildfire. Standard treatments focused on 

increasing resilience to wildfire remove important forest cover elements for spotted 

owls and their prey. Prescribed fire treatments as part of fuel reduction projects can 

further reduce under- and mid-story canopy complexity, and can consume logs and 

snags, potentially causing additional negative impacts to suitable forest for spotted owls and their prey. Silvicultural practices that promote spatial and structural 

complexity have been proposed for retaining suitable forest for spotted owls while 

also reducing fuel loads, but the effectiveness of these management practices is 

unknown for these drier forests.

Thinning treatments in forests on the west side of the Cascade Range—

On the west side of the Cascade Range, the forests become progressively moister 

and less prone to frequent wildfire. When wildfires do occur, however, they tend to 

be mixed to high severity. The old forests in these landscapes retain more moisture 

and have cooler microclimates compared to other forest types. These characteristics make them more resistant to high-severity wildfire under normal fire weather 

conditions and may enhance biodiversity and buffer against the negative effects of a 

changing climate. 

Silvicultural treatments in moist forests have attempted to accelerate development of old-forest conditions in younger closed-canopy stands. Typical thinning 

treatments that create canopy gaps in these forests can stimulate relatively rapid 

increases in understory vegetation diversity and productivity. Abundance of mice, 

terrestrial voles, and shrews often increased immediately following thinning, but 

northern flying squirrels and red tree voles—important prey species for spotted 

owls—decreased dramatically in abundance in treated areas. However, when 

assessing the potential effects of thinning on prey species, the landscape and temporal context should be considered. 

The effects of thinning within heterogeneous landscapes with well-connected, 

intact old-forest cover may be less detrimental to northern flying squirrels than 

if thinning occurs within a highly fragmented forest landscape. Some degree of 

landscape heterogeneity resulting from forest restoration activities in west-side 

forests does not adversely affect spotted owls, provided that sufficient large-tree, 

closed-canopy forest is available for nesting and roosting.
59

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Management Considerations

Forest Management and Barred Owls

• As barred owls continue to increase in number, the most effective conservation of the spotted owls will include protections for old forest and ameliorating the negative effects of barred owls.

• Current evidence suggests that a combination of habitat protection and 

active management of barred owls are the two highest priorities for stabilizing declining trends in populations of spotted owls. 

Habitat, Wildfire, and Active Management

• Disturbances have different impacts on spotted owls depending on the scale 

under consideration. 

• Disturbance processes that increase stand or landscape heterogeneity can 

have long-term benefits for spotted owls, as long as enough suitable forest 

cover for nesting and roosting remain within the territory.

• Conversely, disturbances that substantially simplify stands or landscapes 

often have long-lasting negative impacts on spotted owls and their habitat. 

Conserving Occupied and Vacated Sites

• Conserving sites currently occupied by spotted owls as well as sites that 

they are known to have historically occupied is important.

• Spotted owls, for example, have abandoned many sites where suitable forest 

cover has been disturbed or they have been displaced by barred owls. These 

sites, however, may maintain structure suitable for nesting and roosting. 

Remaining spotted owls likely represent unique behavioral characteristics, 

while remaining sites likely represent forest characteristics that may not yet 

be fully recognized. Conserving the unique forest structural conditions of 

those remaining sites will likely have a positive benefit for the long-term persistence of spotted owls. 
60

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Conclusions

The northern spotted owl is a resilient subspecies but faces significant challenges. 

Research and monitoring efforts over the past two decades have documented population declines and risks to spotted owls, despite conservation measures.

The framework, standards, and guidelines of the NWFP have been both critical 

and necessary for spotted owl conservation. However, because of barred owls and 

continued forest perturbations outside of federal lands, the Plan alone is not sufficient for spotted owl recovery. Additional measures beyond the NWFP would be 

needed for long-term persistence of spotted owls. 

Suitable habitat continues to decline because of current and lingering effects 

of extensive forest disturbance, and the recent invasion of barred owls has reduced 

the space available for spotted owls. The need to provide habitat for spotted owls 

has been a critical component of conservation plans and was a major catalyst for 

developing the NWFP. 

Although spotted owl populations have continued to decline, the Plan has 

improved the conservation status of spotted owls because if logging had continued 

at pre-Plan levels, spotted owl populations certainly would have declined more 

rapidly over the past 20 years. Recruitment of suitable forest (primarily through 

succession), as protected under the NWFP, has put federal lands on a trajectory for 

providing enough forest with suitable structure for recovery of spotted owl populations over the next several decades. 

Further Reading

Courtney, S.P.; Blakesley, J.A.; Bigley, R.E.; Cody, M.L.; Dumbacher, J.P.; 

Fleishcher, R.C.; Franklin, A.B.; Franklin, J.F.; Gutiérrez, R.J.; Marzluff, 

J.M.; Sztukowski, L. 2004. Scientific evaluation of the status of the northern 

spotted owl. Portland, OR: Sustainable Ecosystems Institute. 498 p.

Davis, R.J.; Hollen, B.; Hobson, J.; Gower, J.E.; Keenum, D. 2016. Northwest 

Forest Plan—the first 20 years (1994–2013): status and trends of northern spotted 

owl habitats. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-929. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 111 p.
61

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Dugger, K.M.; Forsman, E.D.; Franklin, A.B.; Davis, R.J.; White, G.C.; 

Schwarz, C.J.; Burnham, K.P.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Yackulic, C.B.; 

Doherty, P.F., Jr.; Bailey, L.L.; Clark, D.A.; Ackers, S.H.; Andrews, L.S.; 

Augustine, B.; Biswell, B.L.; Blakesley, J.A.; Carlson, P.C.; Clement, M.J.; 

Diller, L.V.; Glenn, E.M.; Green, A.; Gremel, S.A.; Herter, D.R.; Higley, 

J.M.; Hobson, J.; Horn, R.B.; Huyvaert, K.P.; McCafferty, C.; McDonald, 

T.L.; McDonnell, K.; Olson, G.S.; Reid, J.A.; Rockweit, J.; Ruiz, V.; Saenz, 

J.; Sovern, S.G. 2016. The effects of habitat, climate and barred owls on the 

long-term population demographics of northern spotted owls. Condor. 118: 

57–116. doi:10.1650/CONDOR-15-24.1.

Lesmeister, D.B.; Davis, R.J.; Singleton, P.H.; Wiens, J.D. 2018. Northern 

spotted owl habitat and populations: status and trends. In: Spies, T.A.; Stine, 

P.A.; Gravenmier, R.; Long, J.W.; Reilly, M.J., tech. coords. Synthesis of science 

to inform land management within the Northwest Forest Plan area. Gen Tech. 

Rep. PNW-GTR-966. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 245–299. Chapter 4. https://www.

fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56341.

Rockweit, J.T.; Franklin, A.B.; Carlson, P.C. 2017. Differential impacts of 

wildfire on the population dynamics of an old-forest species. Ecology. 98(6): 

1574–1582. 

Wiens, J.D.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D. 2014. Competitive interactions and 

resource partitioning between northern spotted owls and barred owls in western 

Oregon. Wildlife Monographs. 185(1): 1–50. doi:10.1002/wmon.1009.
62

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Marbled murrelet. Photo by Kim Nelson, 

Oregon State University.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Chapter 5: Marbled Murrelet

Martin G. Raphael, Gary A. Falxa, and Alan E. Burger1

Main Points

• The assumptions of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP, or Plan) remain 

relevant for marbled murrelet conservation.

• Large late-successional reserves (LSRs) in moist coastal forests have successfully protected nesting habitat for the marbled murrelet in the short 

term. It would be important to evaluate any possible changes to the LSR 

system against the likelihood of adversely affecting murrelets. 

• A long-term goal of the NWFP is to create more nesting habitat than 

existed on federal lands in 1994. Trends indicate that progress is being 

made toward this goal.

• Uncertainties remain around the effects of climate change on the murrelet’s 

marine prey and nesting habitat. Future management and design of reserves 

will benefit from accounting for the anticipated effects of climate change. 

Introduction 

The marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) (fig. 5-1) is a small seabird 

of the family Alcidae. Its summer distribution along the Pacific Coast of North 

America extends from the Aleutian Islands of Alaska to Santa Cruz, California 

(fig. 5-2). It forages primarily on small fish and krill in the nearshore (0 to 2 mi [0 

to 3 km]) marine environment. Unlike other alcids, which nest in dense colonies on 

the ground or in burrows at the marine-terrestrial interface, murrelets nest in more 

dispersed locations up to 55 mi (90 km) inland. 

Throughout the forested portion of the species’ range, murrelets typically nest 

in areas containing characteristics of older forests. The marbled murrelet population 

in Washington, Oregon, and California nests in most of the major coniferous forest 

types in the western portions of these states, wherever older forests remain inland 

of the coast at elevations primarily below the extent of the true fir zone, generally 

<4,000 ft (1220 m) and close enough to the coast to allow nesting murrelets to commute between their inland nests and foraging areas in coastal marine waters. 

1

Martin G. Raphael is a research wildlife biologist (retired), U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3625 93rd Avenue SW, Olympia, 

WA 98512; Gary A. Falxa is a wildlife biologist (retired), U.S. Department of the Interior, 

Fish and Wildlife Service, 1615 Swanson Lane, Eureka, CA 95503; Alan E. Burger is an 

adjunct professor, University of Victoria, Department of Biology, and a wildlife consultant, 

P.O. Box 2539, Merritt, British Columbia V1K 1B8.
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Because murrelets depend on marine 

conditions for foraging and resting, and on 

forests for nesting, both marine and forest 

conditions could limit murrelet numbers. 

Population declines attributed to loss of 

mature and old-growth forest from harvesting, low recruitment of young, and mortality 

at sea led this species to be federally listed 

as threatened in Washington, Oregon, and 

California in 1992 (USFWS 1997) and listed 

as threatened in British Columbia (Rodway 

1990). The murrelet’s association with latesuccessional and old-growth forests and its 

listed status under the Endangered Species 

Act made conservation of the murrelet an 

explicit goal in the design of the NWFP. 

The conservation strategy embodied 

in the NWFP evolved from numerous relatively small management areas to an 

approach that designated and protected fewer large areas, each designed to conserve 

functioning late-successional and old-growth ecosystems, support multiple pairs of 

northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) and marbled murrelets (fig. 5-3), 

and conserve habitat for other species associated with older forests.

Figure 5-1—The marbled murrelet is a small seabird that forages in the marine environment and 

typically nests in older coniferous trees as far as 55 miles inland. 

Martin Raphael

Figure 5-2—The North American range of the marbled murrelet extends 

from the Aleutian Islands to northern California. 

Map by Terry Sohl from NatureServe data
65

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

California

Oregon

Washington

Oregon

Pacific

Oce

a

n

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 5

Zone 4

Zone 3

Federal lands

Marbled murrelet conservation zones

Reserved

Nonreserved

Northwest Forest Plan inland zones

Zones 1–5

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

0 80 160 240 320 Kilometers

o

Figure 5-3—The five marbled murrelet conservation zones and locations of federal reserves, other federal lands, 

and nonfederal lands. Also shown are boundaries of the inland zones designated by the Northwest Forest Plan. 

Falxa and Raphael (2016)
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Chapter 5 of the NWFP science synthesis reviews recent science on the ecology 

and status of the marbled murrelet, with an emphasis on the portion of the species’ 

range that falls within the NWFP area. Below is a summary of the current state of 

knowledge.

Key Findings

Although murrelet nesting habitat characteristics may vary throughout the species’ 

range, some general habitat attributes are characteristic throughout: 

• Presence of nesting platforms. 

• Adequate canopy cover over the nest. 

• Larger patch size of mature forest. 

• Commuting distance to the marine environment.

Because murrelets do not construct nests, they depend on the availability of 

nesting platforms that are typically tree limbs with moss or other thick substrate, 

such as piles of needles collected on limbs near a tree bole, sufficiently large for 

laying their single egg and raising a nestling.

Much has been learned about individual tree attributes that provide conditions 

suitable for nesting. These attributes include large branches, averaging 13 in (33 

cm) in diameter in the Plan area; forked branches; deformities (e.g., broken tops); 

dwarf mistletoe infections; witch’s broom; or growth of moss or other structures 

large enough to provide a platform for a nesting adult. 

Nesting platforms are generally 33 ft (10 m) or higher from the ground. They 

are typically found in old-growth and mature forests but may be found in a variety 

of forest types, including younger forests containing remnant trees. Since 1996, 

research has confirmed that the presence of platforms is the most important characteristic of murrelet nesting habitat.

Tree diameter and height can be positively correlated with the size and abundance of platforms, but the relationship may change depending on tree species and 

forest types. Overall, nest trees in Washington, Oregon, and northern California 

have been greater than 19 in (48 cm) diameter at breast height and greater than 98 

ft (30 m) tall. Northwestern forests and trees typically require 200 to 250 years to 

attain the attributes necessary to support murrelet nesting. 

Marbled murrelets are reported to nest disproportionately on lower slopes and near 

streams, possibly because murrelets can better access these sites from at-sea flyways.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Population Trends

Murrelet populations remain at risk, but protections appear to have 

helped stabilize populations in some areas—

• Based on population monitoring done at sea, the total murrelet population 

for the NWFP area is roughly 20,000 birds. This includes those nesting on 

federal as well as nonfederal lands. Population estimates are highly variable from year to year and have fairly wide 95 percent confidence intervals, 

averaging about ±22 percent for estimates at the NWFP scale.

• Based on trend analyses summarized over the three states, murrelet populations may have been stable or nondeclining in Oregon and northern 

California since monitoring began in 2000, but have declined substantially 

in Washington from 2001 to 2015.

• Threats to population persistence include loss of nesting habitat, poor 

recruit-ment of young owing primarily to nest depredation by jays and 

crows, and changes in prey abundance and quality in the marine environment. These changes in prey could be in response to climate change or 

other human-caused disturbances in the marine environment.

Nesting Habitat

The NWFP remains relevant for marbled murrelet conservation—

Protections under the NWFP have conserved much of the existing nesting habitat 

on federal lands, but losses continue on nonfederal lands (fig. 5-4). 

• As of 2012, the majority (66 percent) of about 2.2 million ac (0.9 million ha) 

of suitable murrelet nesting habitat within the NWFP region occurs on federal 

lands, and more than 90 percent of this occurs within NWFP reserved lands.

• Losses of suitable nesting habitat on federal lands totaled about 2 percent 

during the first 20 years of the NWFP (1993–2012), compared to about 27 

percent on nonfederal lands.

• Fire was the major cause of lost nesting habitat on federal lands, with some 

habitat losses resulting from timber harvest and insect damage or disease. 

Timber harvest caused most of the loss on nonfederal lands. 

• Although some habitat losses can be expected (such as from fire and 

windthrow) even with existing NWFP protections, the NWFP strategy of 

large LSRs appears to have succeeded in protecting most habitat. 

• Nesting habitat conditions for murrelets should improve over time as 

younger forest within reserves continues to mature and eventually develop 

into suitable nesting habitat (fig. 5-5).
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Figure 5-4—Estimated amounts of higher suitability nesting habitat of the marbled murrelet in 1993 and 2012, 

by (A) state, and (B) land allocation (Falxa et al. 2016). Error bars are 95 percent confidence intervals from 25 

replicated model runs. 

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Washington Oregon California

Nesting habitat (thousands of acres)

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Nesting habitat (thousands of acres)

1993

2012

Nonfederal Federal: reserve Federal: non-reserve

A

B

1993

2012
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Figure 5-5—Map of suitability for marbled murrelet nesting habitat, 2012 (Falxa et al. 2016). 

Marbled Murrelet Nesting Habitat

(2012)

Murrelet habitat suitability

Physiographic province

Below threshhold

Above threshhold

Habitat capable

Class 3 (moderately 

 high suitability)

Class 4 (highest suitability)

Not habitat capable

Northwest Forest Plan 

 inland zones

Washington Olympic Peninsula

Washington Western Lowlands

Washington Western Cascades

Washington Eastern Cascades

Oregon Western Cascades

Oregon Coast Range

Oregon Willamette Valley

Oregon Klamath

California Klamath

California Coast Range

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

0 50 100 150 Miles

0 80 160 240

200

320 Kilometers

o
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

A review of the current science and best available information supports the validity of the NWFP’s landscape-scale LSR system design for meeting the Plan’s goal of 

stabilizing and increasing murrelet populations by maintaining and increasing murrelet 

habitat, while reducing its fragmentation. Taken as a whole, research to date suggests 

that apart from increasing the amount of nesting habitat and reducing its fragmentation, managing forest structure to reduce nest predation risk should be approached with 

consideration given to local factors that might affect predator densities.

Uncertainties Remain That Challenge Murrelet Conservation

Several key questions about murrelets and their needs remain. For example:

• What factors have caused murrelet numbers to decline in Washington since 

2000, while appearing to stabilize (at least in the short term) in recent years 

to the south of Washington?

• What is the pattern and magnitude of murrelet movements (emigration, 

immigration, and seasonal) within the Plan area, and between the Plan area 

and areas to the north?

• How are murrelet population sizes influenced by the amount of nesting habitat 

versus variation and trends in ocean conditions that affect foraging habitat?

Our review of the current scientific literature (Raphael et al. 2018) points 

toward nesting habitat as the primary driver, but the relationships are correlational. 

Cause-effect relationships have not been established. Further work is needed to 

confirm if these correlations reflect true underlying causes.

• How fast is nesting habitat developing within reserves?

• Better models of forest development would allow projections of amounts 

and distribution of murrelet nesting habitat.

Other questions remain about murrelet prey in the marine environment. 

• How do prey resources (quantity, quality, distribution) differ over space and 

time? And how do these affect murrelet numbers and distribution?

Climate change will affect murrelet foraging habitat (prey abundance and 

distribution in the marine environment) and nesting habitat (e.g., extent of fog 

zone and abundance of epiphytic plants that help create nesting platforms), but 

the magnitude and consequence of these effects is difficult to predict at this time. 

Future management and design of reserves will benefit from accounting for climate 

change, including increased risks to murrelet nesting habitat from fire and other 

natural disturbances.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Refined understanding of inland nesting range— 

• A refined understanding of murrelets’ inland nesting range will better meet 

management objectives and avoid problems with managing for murrelets in 

areas where none are really expected to exist. This will require additional 

survey work and a synthesis of existing observations.

• To guide management and increase its effectiveness in achieving nesting 

habitat expansion, modeling tools are needed to help forecast site-specific 

future nesting habitat development and structural characteristics of potential murrelet nesting habitat.

Management Considerations

Protecting and Increasing Nesting Habitat

• Maintaining and creating larger blocks of suitable nesting habitat area on 

federal lands will likely help stabilize and eventually lead to recovering 

murrelet populations. 

• The current NWFP reserve system (including riparian buffers and other setasides) appears well designed to accomplish this goal. Because it can take 

many decades for murrelet nesting habitat to develop, protection of existing 

habitat for the next several decades will continue to be key to minimizing 

habitat losses, both within and outside of reserves.

• Changes to land management, such as the Bureau of Land Management’s 

revised resource management plans in western Oregon, create more uncertainty about the status of current and future murrelet nesting habitat owing 

to the possibility of increased timber harvests in nesting habitat. Additional 

monitoring will be needed to evaluate potential effects of these changes on 

the status and trends of murrelet populations and nesting habitat. 

• Boundaries of reserves (including making them larger) may be reconsidered if revised boundaries might better conserve nesting habitat in the face 

of anticipated effects of climate change. 

• Changes to the LSR system should be approached cautiously to avoid 

adversely affecting murrelets and the probability of achieving the NWFP 

goal for murrelets. Adverse effects could be triggered by actions that (1) 

reduce the amount of current or future suitable nesting habitat; (2) maintain 

or increase the degree of nest habitat fragmentation, or prevent future forest 

development that would reduce fragmentation within reserves; or (3) create 

better habitat for jays, crows, and other nest predators.
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

• Forest planning and management can positively affect murrelet status 

by managing human recreation activities that might promote murrelet 

nest predator populations (e.g., ravens, crows, and jays in campgrounds). 

Implementing education programs, limiting garbage, and controlling predators could have positive effects.

Federal Lands May Not Be Enough

• Maintaining a broad distribution of large nesting habitat blocks over the 

NWFP landscape will likely help to minimizing the risk to the population 

from nesting habitat loss to fire, wind, or other disturbance agents.

• Conservation of existing nesting habitat on federal lands may not be sufficient to conserve murrelet populations in the short term. Contributions 

from nonfederal lands could augment strategies on federal land to achieve 

objectives for the murrelet, and support the larger goal of murrelet conservation and recovery. This might be approached by collaborative programs 

to increase murrelet conservation on nonfederal lands, particularly those 

adjacent to NWFP lands, and in key areas (such as southwest Washington 

and northwest Oregon) where few federal reserves exist.

Active Management May Help Accelerate Development of 

Nesting Habitat

• Active management actions could include thinning in plantations to accelerate growth of potential nest trees and development of nesting platforms, 

but care will be needed to prevent simultaneously increasing numbers of 

nest predators attracted to more diverse understory conditions. Moreover, 

such management should also be careful not to increase the suitability of 

older forests to harbor barred owls (Strix varia), which may prey on murrelets and also reduce forest suitability for northern spotted owls. 

• Restoration in plantations and younger natural forests can benefit murrelets 

by incorporating knowledge of stand shape, extent of higher contrast edges, 

and forest features that promote habitat for nest predators such as corvids. 

Proximity of nest and occupied habitat should be considered. 

• Treatments that evaluate risk to existing suitable nesting habitat along 

exposed edges as a result of windthrow would also contribute to conservation of existing nesting habitat.
73

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

• Development and implementation of forest management practices that protect (short term) and develop (long term, i.e., over many decades) suitable 

murrelet nesting habitat on NWFP lands within the murrelet range would 

be beneficial in recovering murrelet populations.

Conclusions

The NWFP had a short-term objective for murrelets: conserve much of the best 

remaining nesting habitat. As implemented, the NWFP has been successful in 

meeting this objective. The NWFP also has a long-term objective: create a system 

of reserves containing desired sizes and distributions of large blocks for suitable 

nesting habitat that would eventually provide substantially more suitable nesting 

habitat for murrelets on federal lands than existed there in 1994. Evidence suggests 

that nesting habitat trends on federal lands are on course toward this objective, but 

many more decades will be needed to observe whether, as implemented, the Plan 

has been successful in achieving its goal of stabilizing and increasing murrelet 

populations by maintaining and increasing nesting habitat. 

We have shown that the NWFP has been remarkably successful in conserving 

nesting habitat over its first 20 years of implementation, but much work remains. 

Murrelet numbers continue to decline in the northern portion of the NWFP area. 

Assuming no large fires, we believe that the current decline in amount of murrelet 

nesting habitat will reverse on federal lands, leading to a net increase in the amount 

of nesting habitat, and that murrelet populations should also increase in response. 

How many decades before this reversal in trend occurs is unknown, but at-sea 

monitoring suggests that the first step of possible population stabilization may 

be occurring in the southern Plan area. Lastly, climate change has emerged as an 

external force that may affect future murrelet populations, their nesting habitat, and, 

in particular, their food resources.

Further Reading

Burger, A.E. 2002. Conservation assessment of marbled murrelets in British 

Columbia, a review of the biology, populations, habitat associations, and 

conservation. Tech. Report 387. Delta, British Columbia: Environment Canada, 

Canadian Wildlife Service, Pacific and Yukon Region. 194 p.

Falxa, G.A.; Raphael, M.G., tech. coords. 2016. Northwest Forest Plan—the 

first 20 years (1994–2013): status and trend of marbled murrelet populations and 

nesting habitat. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-933. Portland, OR: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 132 p.
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Nelson, S.K. 1997. Marbled murrelet Brachyramphus marmoratus. In: Gill, F.; 

Poole, A., eds. The Birds of North America. No. 276. Philadelphia, PA: Academy 

of Natural Sciences, and Washington, DC: American Ornithologists’ Union. 31 p.

Piatt, J.F.; Kuletz, K.J.; Burger, A.E.; Hatch, S.A.; Friesen, V.L.; Birt, T.P.; 

Arimitsu, M.L.; Drew, G.S.; Harding, A.M.A.; Bixler, K.S. 2007. Status 

review of the marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in Alaska and 

British Columbia. Open-File Report 2006-1387. Reston, VA: U.S. Department 

of the Interior, Geological Survey. 258 p.

Ralph, C.J.; Hunt, G.L., Jr.; Raphael, M.G.; Piatt, J.F., eds. 1995. Ecology and 

conservation of the marbled murrelet. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-152. Albany, 

CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research 

Station. 420 p.

Raphael, M.G.; Falxa, G.A.; Burger, A.E. 2018. Marbled murrelet. In: Spies, 

T.A.; Stine, P.A.; Gravenmier, R.; Long, J.W.; Reilly, M.J., tech. coords. Synthesis 

of science to inform land management within the Northwest Forest Plan area. 

Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-966. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture 

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 301–371. Chapter 5. https://

www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56279.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary
76

GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Table Rock Wilderness, Oregon. Photo by USDI 

Bureau of Land Management, Oregon-Washington 

State Office.
77

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Bruce G. Marcot, Karen L. Pope, Keith Slauson, Hartwell H. Welsh, 

Clara A. Wheeler, Matthew J. Reilly, and William J. Zielinski1

Main Points

• The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP, or Plan) established the Survey and 

Manage program to help assure persistence of rare and little-known species associated with late-successional and old-growth forests. The program 

produced guidelines and approaches on natural history and management 

considerations for many of these species. 

• Scientific understanding has greatly expanded for some old-forest-associated species, but many such species—particularly fungi, lichens, bryophytes, soil and canopy invertebrates, and others—remain poorly known, 

as does the suite of ecological functions of organisms contributing to native 

biodiversity of the region. 

• Studies on mammalian carnivores—fisher, Pacific marten, lynx, and wolverine—have reinforced guidelines for conserving large trees and down 

wood, but new threats of habitat fragmentation, predation, rodenticides, 

wildfire, and down wood removal have been identified.

• Adaptive-learning and management programs as initially specified under 

the NWFP were never manifest but still may be vital for providing needed 

information.

• A combination of coarse-filter (ecosystem) and fine-filter (species) 

approaches for restoring and maintaining resilience and integrity of forest 

conditions is necessary to help ensure conservation of species and biodiversity of forest ecosystems.

1

Bruce G. Marcot is a research wildlife biologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 620 SW Main Street, Suite 502, Portland, OR 

97205; Karen L. Pope is a research wildlife biologist, Keith Slauson is a research fellow, 

Hartwell H. Welsh is a research wildlife biologist emeritus, Clara A. Wheeler was an 

ecologist, and William J. Zielinski is a research ecologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, 1700 Bayview Drive, Arcata, 

CA 95521; Matthew J. Reilly is a postdoctoral researcher, Humboldt State University, 

Department of Biological Sciences, 1 Harpst Street, Arcata, CA 95521. Wheeler currently 

is a technical writer/editor, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Missoula 

Technology and Development Center, 5785 Highway 10 W, Missoula, MT 59808.

Chapter 6: Other Species and Biodiversity in 

Older Forests 
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Introduction

Forests of the Pacific Northwest teem with life: much is hidden from human view 

within soil, under logs, or high in the tree canopy (fig. 6-1). This wealth of biodiversity ranges from lichens, fungi, and vascular plants to mollusks, insects, mammals, 

and birds; all contribute to the resilience, integrity, and function of the ecosystems 

they inhabit 

The NWFP was developed as an ecosystem management plan to provide 

for the full suite of biodiversity at all taxonomic and functional levels in latesuccessional and old-growth forests, under an adaptive learning and management 

approach. The first decade of the NWFP, however, focused on the status of 

species, and no biodiversity monitoring program per se has been instituted under 

the NWFP (Marcot and Molina 2006). Since then, a broad assumption has been 

made that older forest biodiversity in its full capacity would be provided by two 

complementary approaches: (1) managing for “coarse filter” ecosystem elements 

such as the dispersion and distribution of late-successional forest reserves and 

aquatic and riparian corridors, and (2) managing for “fine filter” elements of 

habitat used by selected, individual species associated with late-successional 

and old-growth forest. 

Figure 6-1—The vertical structural diversity of mature and old-growth conifer forests of the Northwest Forest Plan region includes 

deeply furrowed tree bark, dense epiphyte cover by mosses and lichens, and multilayered and deep tree canopies. These characteristics 

contribute to the overall biodiversity of the region’s forests. Location: Eagle Fern Park, Clackamas County, Oregon. 

Bruce G. Marcot
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Much has been learned since the 2006 science synthesis about a wide array 

of organisms, biological processes, and biodiversity of late-successional and oldgrowth forests within and beyond the Plan area. This is due in large part to the 

NWFP’s Survey and Manage program, which initially was devised to identify 

older-forest species requiring additional site survey, monitoring, and management 

activities to help ensure their conservation in the NWFP area. It subsequently produced guidelines and approaches on natural history and management considerations 

for hidden, rare, or little-known species.

In recent years, the Survey and Manage program has undergone legal challenges 

and administrative changes. At present, oversight of Survey and Manage standards 

and guidelines implementation, at least in part, is consigned to staff members within 

the Interagency Special Status and Sensitive Species Program (ISSSSP) (U.S. 

Forest Service Pacific Northwest Region and Bureau of Land Management [BLM] 

Oregon/Washington State Office; formed in 2005) and the Pacific Southwest Region 

Regional Wildlife Program Manager within the Ecosystem Conservation staff. 

The ISSSSP partners with a variety of research and academic institutions to 

provide key information on rare species of conservation concern within its geographic venue. The current list of Survey and Manage species dates to December 

2003 and includes 298 species: 189 fungi, 15 bryophytes, 40 lichens, 12 vascular 

plants, 36 snails and slugs (mollusks), 4 amphibians, 1 mammal (red tree vole), and 

1 bird (great gray owl).

Of the many social changes since 1994, of particular note for its potential effect 

on biodiversity management and monitoring is the Forest Service’s 2012 planning 

rule. The 2012 planning rule puts more weight on coarse-filter approaches and ecological integrity (based in part on natural range of variation) than did the previous 

1982 planning rule that guided the NWFP. Land and resource management plans 

(forest plans) for national forests currently are in line for revision in accordance 

with the 2012 planning rule. On BLM land in the Plan area, resource management 

plans are in effect from records of decision signed in August 2016. These BLM 

plans are intended to protect northern spotted owls, listed fish species, and water 

resources, as well as provide for jobs, recreation, and timber harvest; older-forest 

species are addressed through the ISSSSP. 

Chapter 6 of the NWFP science synthesis reviews what is known about the ecology and conservation of species and biodiversity associated with late-successional 

and old-growth forests. It also addresses a set of questions posed by resource managers, including how well the NWFP has provided for these species; and reviews 

results of research on effectiveness of site buffers for species conservation; effects of 
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disturbance events, particularly wildfire and climate change; how agency programs 

have served to provide new information for managing species of older forests; and 

what key uncertainties remain. Here, we present highlights from that chapter. 

Key Findings

The Northwest Forest Plan Is Generally Providing Habitat for 

Species Associated With Late-Successional and Old-Growth 

Forests

The conservation evaluations done through the Survey and Manage program, and 

more recently the ISSSSP, provide evidence that the NWFP is generally providing 

habitat for late-successional and old-growth-associated species either under the 

late-successional, aquatic, and riparian buffer reserve system (coarse-filter management), or additionally through species-specific inventories, monitoring, and site 

protection (fine-filter management). 

Additional federal listing of late-successional and old-growth species as 

threatened or endangered, beyond northern spotted owls, marbled murrelets, 

and salmonids, has generally not proved necessary. Still, it is unknown how the 

legacy of past forest harvesting patterns coupled with stressors of climate change, 

and attendant effects of drought, wildfire, and other factors, may affect many 

species associated with older forests. For many of the rarer species in the NWFP 

area, little to no information is available on population size and trend, including their demographics across the managed forest matrix outside of reserves, 

although information is available on the general distribution or occurrence of 

some such species. 

Fungi—

Fungi are an important part of forest ecosystems. Their occurrence is influenced, at 

least in part, by the type and intensity of disturbances, time since disturbance, and 

vegetation development, and by forest stand management and forest age class. Many 

fungi species are soil dwellers and mostly subterranean. Determining their presence can be difficult, but they can play major roles in nutrient uptake by trees and 

other plants and in aiding coarse-wood decomposition, contributing to soil organic 

matter, and maintaining overall forest health (fig. 6-2). 

Lichens—

Lichens play important ecological roles such as in nutrient cycling in late-successional and old-growth forests of the Pacific Northwest. Many species of lichens are 

difficult to detect, inventory, monitor, and study because they require specialized 

expertise in the field and the laboratory, and may occur largely in forest canopies 
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that are difficult to reach. To address such problems, the Survey and Manage 

program spurred the development of methods for statistically determining the 

occurrence and frequency of rare species of lichens. 

Bryophytes—

Bryophytes—including hornworts, liverworts, and mosses—are a conspicuous 

component of many late-successional and old-growth forests of the Pacific Northwest, and many species have been part of the Survey and Manage program. Many 

late-successional and old-growth-associated bryophytes may be sensitive to disturbance and may require old-forest stands larger than 2.5 ac (1 ha) or with more than 

15 percent retention of older green trees in dispersed retention harvests.

Pacific Northwest forests are the main source of commercially harvested moss 

in North America, with dozens of species likely affected by the practice. The main 

mosses collected are epiphytes that may require 15 to 25 years to recover. These 

mosses are most abundant in riparian and low-elevation forests and absent or much 

less abundant in young (<70 years old) Douglas-fir plantations. However, there is 

no regional program established to monitor the effects of moss harvest on species 

viability and conservation.

Figure 6-2—Recreational collection of mushrooms on federal public lands within the area of the 

Northwest Forest Plan is a popular and increasing activity. However, no studies have been conducted 

on the effect of collection on rare fungi associated within late-successional and old-growth forests of 

the region. Location: Columbia River Gorge, Washington.

Bruce G. Marcot
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Vascular plants—

The response of understory vascular plants to management is known primarily 

from western hemlock–Douglas-fir forests and generally suggests that certain 

management activities can increase later seral species in previously managed 

stands (i.e., clearcuts). Precommercial thinning can increase the compositional 

similarity of shrubs and herbs between young- and old-growth stands and increase 

the abundance of late-seral herbs. Conversely, thinning in 60- to 80-year-old 

stands can increase diversity and the abundance of early-seral species but have 

little effect on late-seral species. Effects of fire exclusion on understory communities in late-successional and old-growth forests where fire was historically frequent 

is poorly understood. 

Invertebrates—

The wide array of invertebrates in old forests highlights their many key ecological 

roles (fig. 6-3). Many soil invertebrates are fire sensitive and occur in high diversity 

in upper watersheds. Threats include invasive species. 

Invertebrates differ in their sensitivity to disturbance and to forest canopy 

closure and tree density conditions. Some late-successional and old-growthassociated invertebrates, particularly dispersal-limited species such as terrestrial 

Figure 6-3—Centipedes (family Lithobiidae; order Lithobiomorpha) are one component of the wide 

array of soil invertebrates found in late-successional and old-growth forests of the Northwest Forest 

Plan region. Centipedes perform key ecological functional roles as predators of other invertebrates 

including spiders, worms, and other species. This is but one ecological role of soil invertebrates, 

that collectively contribute to the function, resilience, and diversity of forest ecosystems. Location: 

Columbia River Gorge, Oregon.

Bruce G. Marcot
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carabid beetles and flightless saproxylic weevils, can serve as indicators of biodiversity and climate change risk, and as indicators of response of species groups to 

stand thinning. 

A fairly recent management concern is the reduction in populations of pollinators on federal lands. In the Pacific Northwest, native bee populations are declining 

because of parasites, pathogens, pesticides, and invasive species. 

Amphibians and reptiles—

Recent studies have determined that the assumed dependence of terrestrial salamanders on late-successional and old-growth forests is more nuanced than previously thought (fig. 6-4). Substrate type and availability are important correlates of 

some species. Maintaining cool and humid refugia may be central in protecting 

populations in areas that may experience disturbances. 

Bruce G. Marcot

Figure 6-4—An immature coastal giant salamander (Dicamptodon tenebrosus). Research has shown 

that this species occurs in greater abundance and occurrence in streams within uncut forests than in 

logged forests. Location: Tryon Creek State Park, Oregon. 

Recent conservation assessments conducted on seven salamander species 

highlight the value of riparian buffers, down log retention, and protection of 

headwater streams. Providing linkage areas between adjacent watersheds and 

using various combinations of alternative management approaches (riparian 

buffers, thinning, down wood, leave islands, and uncut blocks) to retain forested 

areas along headwater ridgelines may facilitate upland dispersal and connectivity 

between subpopulations. 
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Still-water environments such as lakes, ponds, and wet meadows, and their 

adjacent riparian and terrestrial environments, also provide for species diversity. 

Modifications and disturbances to these environments (e.g., damming to increase 

water storage, ditching to increase drainage, siltation owing to timber harvest in 

the watershed, and overgrazing), combined with the spread of fungal diseases and 

invasive species such as American bullfrogs and brook trout have resulted in some 

population declines of native frogs (fig. 6-5). 

The threat of novel diseases entering populations of amphibians of the Pacific 

Northwest appears increasingly pressing. The deadly amphibian disease, chytridiomycosis, emerged in the 1970s and has become a prominent threat to amphibian 

biodiversity worldwide. The fungus that causes chytridiomycosis is widespread in 

the region. 

The effects of large disturbances such as wildfire and broad-scale timber 

harvest on populations have not been adequately studied for many of these 

amphibians associated with older forests, and monitoring programs are not in 

place to assess the status of species and effectiveness of the NWFP in protecting 

these species. 

Climate change may influence the distribution of suitable environments, 

which can result in fragmenting populations and shifting or retracting species 

ranges, particularly of species closely associated with cool-water streams (e.g., 

tailed frog), dispersed pond habitats (e.g., chorus frog), and intermittent headwater 

streams (lungless salamanders). More precipitation during autumn and winter 

Figure 6-5—American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) in pond wetland. Bullfrogs are invasive in 

wetlands within the region of the Northwest Forest Plan and are voracious predators of native species 

of fish and amphibians. Location: Tualatin National Wildlife Refuge, Washington County, Oregon. 

Bruce G. Marcot
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

may lengthen the period of surface activity, but warmer and drier summers could 

result in fewer available surface and subsurface refugia that prevent desiccation. 

Forest management practices that retain canopy cover, and maintain or supplement 

surface refugia such as down wood and logs, may somewhat help to ameliorate the 

effects of climate change.

Birds—

Natural disturbance patterns, including fire, windthrow, and other forces, can 

leave remnant and legacy elements of older forests such as old-forest patches, 

large-diameter green trees and snags, and large-diameter down wood as key 

habitat elements for a variety of species (fig. 6-6). Subsequent regrowth of the 

vegetation through secondary succession then creates early-seral structures more 

complex than those resulting from final timber harvests such as clearcuts. The 

complexity of naturally regenerating vegetation following natural disturbances often can contain habitat for 

a wide variety of birds and other wildlife associated 

with early-successional environments. For information 

on northern spotted owls and marbled murrelets—both 

specifically tied to late-successional and old-growth 

forests in the NWFP area—see chapters 4 and 5.

Carnivores—

Regarding mammalian carnivores—fisher, Pacific 

marten, lynx, and wolverine—studies have reinforced 

habitat guidelines for conserving large trees and down 

wood. These carnivores have been documented in new 

locations over the past two decades, but current threats 

include habitat fragmentation, predation, rodenticides, 

wildfire, and down wood removal. The U.S. Fish and 

Wildlife Service (USFWS) had determined that the West 

Coast distinct population segment of fisher does not warrant federal listing status; however, that finding has been 

litigated and reopened. Regarding the Humboldt marten, 

the USFWS determined that there is insufficient data to 

warrant listing, although that decision was appealed, and 

USFWS must submit a new finding or proposed listing 

rule. The Canada lynx continues to be listed as threatened. The wolverine is currently proposed for federal listing as threatened, but formal listing has not yet occurred. 

Bruce G. Marcot

Figure 6-6—An old-growth western redcedar snag riddled 

with feeding cavities created by pileated woodpeckers (Dryocopus pileatus) in the Bureau of Land Management’s Medford 

District, Oregon. 
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Among state-level listings, the fisher is listed as endangered in Washington, is a 

state-critical species in Oregon, and is fully protected in California with petitions to 

uplist it to endangered status. The Humboldt marten can still be trapped in Oregon, 

but petitioners are seeking to have its trapping status removed. In California, the 

Humboldt marten is under review as a state candidate species. The wolverine is a 

candidate for threatened status in Washington, is listed as threatened in Oregon, 

and is fully protected as endangered in California.

Red tree vole—

Much work has taken place on the morphology, genetics, and taxonomy of red tree 

voles and related species since 2006. These voles are found only in old-growth 

forests and are prey for northern spotted owls; leading threats to its habitat are logging, fire, and fragmentation.

Bats—

At least 14 species of bats are found within the NWFP area. Some of these species 

are associated with late-successional forests, and the habitats are likely provided 

by NWFP reserve guidelines. Studies are incomplete, however, and few studies are 

available on the response of bats to fire. 

A growing concern is the 2016 discovery of white-nose syndrome in a bat found 

30 mi (48 km) east of Seattle, Washington. White-nose syndrome, caused by a 

fungus, has killed more than 6 million bats in the Eastern United States since 2006. 

Whether white-nose syndrome will spread geographically or among species in the 

Pacific Northwest, or to bat species using roost situations other than caves, such as 

large trees with sloughing bark and dense canopy foliage, is unknown. 

Habitat Corridors Between Reserves Can Hedge Against 

Climate Change Impacts

Much has been learned over the past decade about a wide variety of species and 

their occurrence, distribution, and rarity. Still, many species groups remain poorly 

studied. What we have learned about their ecology reaffirms the importance of 

maintaining late-successional and old-growth forest reserves and conserving 

aquatic systems and riparian buffers in providing habitat for many such species. The 

importance of retaining old-forest components and substrates in the managed forest 

matrix to serve as connections among the reserves is increasingly clear. These connections can be provided by slowing harvests of late-successional and old-growth 

forests in the federal matrix lands, maintaining the current critical habitat designation for northern spotted owls to protect all remaining owl habitat, and retaining 
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old-forest structures in early-seral vegetation within the forest matrix. The ways in 

which young stands in the forest matrix are managed will have a significant bearing 

on the future of old-forest ecosystems, and their species and biodiversity, throughout the NWFP area. 

Uncertainties and Research Needs

Much scientific uncertainty remains over using surrogate species, including indicators, sentinels, flagships, umbrellas, keystones, and others, as effective means of 

ensuring conservation of all species associated with older forests in the NWFP area. 

Recent scientific publications have continued to suggest using management indicator species and umbrella species only with due caution and empirical evaluation. 

Some science findings suggest that using an ecological functional basis for species 

and biodiversity management, rather than using simpler proxies of indicator species, 

is more likely to succeed for meeting overall conservation objectives, particularly if 

complemented with application of ecological forestry methods. 

Climate change is a major conservation concern in the Pacific Northwest. 

Much remains to be studied to better understand its direct and indirect effects on 

species, their habitats, and their ecological functions, and also to better understand 

its complex role in the suite of existing and new threats to species and biodiversity 

of older forests of the NWFP area. How this can influence any redesign of reserves 

under the NWFP would require further study.

There also remains much to learn about soil microorganisms and mesoarthropods, along with the suite of poorly known fungi that collectively play crucial roles 

in organic matter breakdown, nutrient cycling, and maintenance of forest health, and 

how their biodiversity affects overall ecosystem resilience, integrity, and functioning. 

No analysis has been conducted on threats to older-forest species comparing 

threat levels perceived under the NWFP as initially envisioned, with the NWFP 

as currently implemented. Still, thanks to the ISSSSP, sufficient information likely 

exists on some species by which their management status could be effectively 

reevaluated. However, the program has not been charged with conducting species 

reviews in the spirit of an adaptive learning and management process as was 

conducted previously with Annual Species Review panels under the NWFP. It is 

likely that some species originally ranked as having low potential for persistence 

might be viewed as having higher potential, particularly if their older-forest habitats 

and specific habitat elements are better provided throughout the matrix over time. 

Other species tied to specific locations that are vulnerable to fire and disturbances 

might not fare as well, but no evaluation is currently available. 
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Management Considerations

Information Remains Limited on Population Demography 

and Viability

The degree to which remaining late-successional and old-growth forest is adequately 

providing for persistent and sustainable populations of rare and uncommon species 

is known only for those few species for which demographic and monitoring studies have been conducted, such as northern spotted owls and marbled murrelets, 

although ongoing studies of selected carnivores, such as marten, fisher, and wolverine, are producing some information on their population distribution and status. 

Response to Fire Depends on Species

Species and ecosystems of the NWFP area occupy diverse forest types and experience diverse disturbance regimes. The research findings on effects of fire on rare 

and uncommon species associated with older forests are limited and mixed. For 

some species, such as the white-headed woodpecker, small patches of prescribed 

burning can be used to create or elevate the quality of their habitat. For other 

species, prescribed fire and associated fuels reduction activities can diminish key 

late-successional and old-growth habitat components such as large hollow trees, 

large snags, and large down logs, in turn reducing habitat for a wide variety of 

denning and cavity-using wildlife species, including fishers, Humboldt marten, and 

other mammalian carnivores. 

Effects of high-severity, stand-replacing wildfire are perceived as largely adverse 

to species that use dense, multilayered older forests, although much of the literature 

has not clarified levels of wildfire intensity, extent, and location when speculating 

or concluding about wildfire effects. Research suggests that high-severity fire can 

reduce beneficial mycorrhizal and other desirable fungi, but for the most part the 

effects of wildfire on individual, rare, and uncommon late-successional and oldgrowth species are largely unstudied. Insofar as atypically severe wildfire can reduce 

canopy closure and fragment dense, contiguous-canopy stands, it adversely affects 

habitat for red tree voles. 

Static Placement of Late-Successional Reserves May Not 

Meet All Needs of Species Associated With Older Forests

Habitats and population connections of other species of late-successional and oldgrowth forests are likely more vulnerable to the static placement of existing latesuccessional reserves than previously envisioned, as disturbance events and shifts 

in fire regimes may serve to reduce or isolate such forest locations. A dynamic 
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approach addressing the long-term scheduling of forest management activities and 

additions of reserves to further connect existing reserves and supplement them 

in higher elevations could be useful to account for the influence of changing fire 

regimes, climate, and use of natural resources.

Riparian Buffers Appear to Protect Riparian Habitat

In general, riparian stream buffers, including unthinned riparian vegetation and 

adjacent upland forests, have been shown to have immense conservation value, 

particularly for amphibians. Buffers of sufficient width along streams and wetlands 

can serve as movement corridors and landscape linkages for aquatic frogs, salamanders, reptiles, and birds. 

Benefits to Be Gained From Fully Implementing a Biodiversity 

Monitoring Program

Little effectiveness monitoring has been conducted on site buffers to confirm that 

they are indeed providing for all species persistence at those sites. More extensively, 

no overall biodiversity monitoring program as envisioned in the NWFP—one that 

focuses not only on species but also on biological processes and other dimensions of 

biological diversity—has yet been instituted.

Coarse-Filter, Fine-Filter, and Landscape-Scale Management

Environmental conditions that influence habitat and resource elements needed by 

the full suite of late-successional and old-growth forest species and biodiversity will 

undoubtedly shift under climate change and disturbance dynamics. Regardless of 

the filter approach used, the influence of shifting environments will likely need to 

be at least intermittently reevaluated.

Maintaining the biota and biodiversity of late-successional and old-growth 

forests may not be achievable with only old-forest reserves, and only on federal forest lands. The conservation of regional biodiversity may require coordinated efforts 

across ownerships. 

Dead Wood Is Valued Habitat

About two-thirds of Survey and Manage species are associated in some way with 

partially dead trees, snags, and down wood. Opportunities may exist for enhancing 

wildlife habitat through dead wood management that develops connections among 

late-successional reserves and matrix lands, but in balance with consideration for 

wildfire and fuels management. 
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Conclusions

In general, the NWFP is providing specific older-forest reserves, locations, and 

habitats for many associated species. More is now known about some of these species, and surveys have revealed many new locations allowing some species to have 

been removed from survey lists. Many older-forest species, however, remain rare, 

vulnerable, or poorly understood. 

Both coarse- and fine-filter approaches to conservation are needed. Using one 

alone will likely fail to provide for conservation of the full suite of species and 

biodiversity of older forests. Successfully combining system and species approaches 

depends on clearly articulating management objectives. It also requires further 

monitoring and research to determine the efficacy of management and to identify 

needed changes in management. At present, many aspects of biodiversity, particularly regarding biological and ecological functions, depend largely on untested 

assumptions of the coarse-filter approach. 

Maintaining old-forest biodiversity is further challenged by the imbalance in 

seral stages, increased fire severity, and the effect of climate change on forest conditions and disturbances. Solutions may include restoring natural early-successional 

vegetation and providing a full range of environmental conditions in a sustainable 

balance under changing climate and disturbance regimes. Contributing to species 

and biodiversity conservation may include connecting old-forest reserves through 

matrix lands and across elevations, particularly for carnivore habitat. 

Recent scientific literature has also focused on the role of young successional 

vegetation and the full ecological and geographic range of conditions and environments in the managed forest matrix. An approach where a species focus complements ecosystem-level research and management of ecological processes across all 

successional stages can effectively meet early visions of sustainable forestry that 

conserves late-successional and old-growth forests and their biodiversity. 

Further Reading

Bormann, B.T.; Darbyshire, R.L.; Homann, P.S.; Morrissette, B.A.; Little, S.N. 

2015. Managing early succession for biodiversity and long-term productivity of 

conifer forests in southwestern Oregon. Forest Ecology and Management. 340(1): 

14–125.

Burton, J.I.; Olson, D.H.; Puettmann, K.J. 2016. Effects of riparian buffer width 

on wood loading in headwater streams after repeated forest thinning. Forest 

Ecology and Management. 372: 247–257.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Hunter, M.L. 2005. A mesofilter conservation strategy to complement fine and 

coarse filters. Conservation Biology. 19(4): 1025–1029.

Kluber, M.R.; Olson, D.H.; Puettmann K.J. 2008. Amphibian distributions 

in riparian and upslope areas and their habitat associations on managed forest 

landscapes in the Oregon Coast Range. Forest Ecology and Management. 256: 

529–535.

Linnell, M.A.; Moriarty, K.; Green, D.S.; Levi, T. 2018. Density and population 

viability of coastal marten: a rare and geographically isolated small carnivore. 

PeerJ. 6:e4530. doi:10.7717/peerj.4530. 

Marcot, B.G.; Molina, R. 2006. Conservation of other species associated with 

older forest conditions. In: Haynes, R.; Bormann, B.T.; Lee, D.C.; Martin, 

J.R., eds. Northwest Forest Plan—the first 10 years (1994–2003): synthesis of 

monitoring and research results. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-651. Portland, OR: 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research 

Station: 145–179. 

Marcot, B.G.; Pope, K.L.; Slauson, K.; Welsh, H.H.; Wheeler, C.A.; Reilly, 

M.J.; Zielinski, W.J. 2018. Other species and biodiversity of older forests. In: 

Spies, T.A.; Stine, P.A.; Gravenmier, R.; Long, J.W.; Reilly, M.J., tech. coords. 

Synthesis of science to inform land management within the Northwest Forest 

Plan area. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-966. Portland, OR: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 371–459. 

Chapter 6. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56343.

Slauson, K.M.; Schmidt, G.A.; Zielinski, W.J.; Detrich, P.J.; Callas, R.L.; 

Thrailkill, J.; Devlin Craig, B.; Early, D.A.; Hamm, K.A.; Schmidt, K.N.; 

Transou, A.; West, C.J. [In press]. A conservation assessment and strategy for 

the Humboldt marten (Martes caurina humboldtensis) in California and Oregon. 

Gen. Tech. Rep. Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Pacific Southwest Research Station. 
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Molalla River, Oregon. Photo by Jeff Clark, 

USDI Bureau of Land Management, 

Oregon-Washington State Office.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Gordon H. Reeves, Deanna H. Olson, Steven M. Wondzell, Peter A. Bisson, Sean 

Gordon, Stephanie A. Miller, Jonathan W. Long, and Michael J. Furniss1

Main Points

• The fundamental tenets and ecological framework of the Aquatic 

Conservation Strategy (ACS) are sound. Monitoring results indicate that 

aquatic and riparian ecosystems in the Northwest Forest Plan area are 

improving as expected, albeit slowly. 

• When the ACS was developed in the early 1990s, it was assumed that 

aquatic and riparian ecosystems were relatively stable through time. Recent 

science suggests, however, that these systems may be very dynamic in 

space and time and that aquatic organisms are adapted to this dynamism.

• Options exist for managing riparian reserves based on a dynamic ecological 

context rather than with a uniform prescription.

• New tools based on new understanding of aquatic ecosystems are available 

to reassess the key watershed network and to ensure its effectiveness.

Introduction

The goal of the ACS of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP, or Plan) was to maintain and restore aquatic and riparian ecosystems on federal lands within the range 

of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). The scientific basis of 

the ACS is still sound and is supported by new science produced since the Plan’s 

inception by the Forest Ecosystem and Management Assessment Team (FEMAT) 

in 1993.

1 Gordon H. Reeves is a research fish ecologist, Deanna H. Olson is a research aquatic 

ecologist, and Steven M. Wondzell is a research geologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 

97331; Peter A. Bisson is a research fish ecologist (retired), U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3625 93rd Avenue SW, Olympia, 

WA 98512; Sean Gordon is a research assistant professor, Institute for Sustainable Solutions, Portland State University, 1600 SW Fourth Avenue, Portland, OR 97204; Stephanie 

A. Miller is the Riparian Program lead, U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land 

Management, 20 M Street SE, Washington, DC 20001; Jonathan W. Long is a research 

ecologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research 

Station, 1731 Research Park, Davis, CA 95618; Michael J. Furniss is a hydrologist (retired), 

Pacific Northwest Research Station, 1700 Bayview Drive, Arcata, CA 95521-6013. 

Chapter 7: The Aquatic Conservation Strategy: 

Relevance to Management of Aquatic and 

Riparian Ecosystems
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The ACS is a coarse-filter approach designed to protect and restore ecological processes that create and maintain favorable habitat conditions for native 

anadromous salmonids. This approach assumes that if conditions are favorable for 

these organisms, then conditions should be suitable for other aquatic and riparianassociated organisms. We have learned much about the relationships among riparian vegetation and stream habitats in space and time. With this knowledge, we have 

refined and modified some of the hypotheses that were used to develop the ACS.

Chapter 7 of the NWFP science synthesis addresses eight guiding questions 

from land managers about the scientific basis of the ACS, based on research 

conducted over the past 23 years, and on management of aquatic and riparian 

ecosystems. We summarize key findings and management considerations from that 

chapter below.

Key Findings

The Scientific Foundation of the Aquatic Conservation Strategy 

Is Sound

The ACS’s focus on ecological process is still supported by science, but since 1993, 

additional factors have come to the fore. More aquatic species have been considered 

for listing as threatened and endangered; some require a consideration of threats 

on a case-by-case basis and more focused attention than is provided by the regional 

scale of the ACS. Aquatic invasive species have emerged as an elevated concern 

because of their effects on native species, and these effects may be magnified by 

climate change. Human disturbances from timber-harvest activities, including road 

building and maintenance, remain key concerns for aquatic-riparian ecosystems. 

New concerns about the extent and severity of wildfire and climate change have 

emerged as research and monitoring priorities.

Other components of the ACS merit further research. It may be possible to 

conduct watershed analyses more efficiently, for example. Watershed analysis is the 

designated tool for developing baseline conditions against which to assess improvement in biological and physical processes, relative to the natural range of variability. 

The process could consider the appropriate spatial scale for analysis. If focusing on 

a smaller watershed of interest, for example, assessing its context within the larger 

basin may provide useful information. The larger scale context is particularly relevant for effective landscape-scale planning, such as is required by the 2012 Forest 

Service planning rule. 
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The ACS identified key watersheds that were intended to serve as refugia, 

particularly for at-risk fish populations, and that had the greatest potential for 

restoration. Evidence is emerging that the key watersheds do not have the capacity to support and provide favorable habitat for fish listed under the Endangered 

Species Act (ESA) to the extent that was originally assumed. The assumption that 

habitat in old-growth forests creates the most favorable habitat for native salmonids 

also is being questioned. During development of the NWFP, the potential effectiveness of the key watershed network was not formally evaluated, nor has such an 

evaluation since been attempted. Now, new tools based on a new understanding of 

aquatic ecosystems are available to reassess the key watershed network and ensure 

its effectiveness.

Aquatic and Riparian Ecosystems Are Dynamic in Space and Time

When the ACS was developed in the early 1990s, aquatic and riparian ecosystems 

were assumed to be relatively stable through time, which supported a more uniform management approach. Recent science suggests, however, that these systems 

may be very dynamic in space and time—similar to terrestrial systems—and 

that aquatic organisms are adapted to this dynamism. Implementing this dynamic 

ecosystem perspective in management actions will be challenging. Managing for a 

complex set of changing conditions across landscapes, for example, is not consistent 

with many current regulatory approaches that require that aquatic and riparian 

ecosystems meet a given standard. 

Unaltered aquatic and riparian ecosystems likely exhibit a wide range of 

conditions locally and across the Plan area over time, depending on the magnitude 

and frequency of the associated disturbance regime. For example, headwater 

streams tend to be dominated by conifers, although headwater streams that have 

experienced landslides may be dominated by alder trees. The biological processing 

of decaying leaves, wood, and other allochthonous material that fall into the stream 

are the primary energy source for downstream fish-bearing streams. 

The riparian zone in the middle of the stream network comprises a mix of 

conifers and deciduous hardwoods. Here, hardwoods are particularly important 

sources of allochthonous materials that fuel system productivity. Hardwoods are 

now scarce in many areas because past management harvested trees to stream 

edges. As a result, conifer-dominated plantations comprise an estimated 30 to 50 

percent of riparian reserves. The resulting effects on productivity in aquatic systems 

could be further explored. 

Fire exclusion and climate change are likely altering aquatic and riparian 

ecosystems in ways that are not fully recognized or appreciated at this time.
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Understanding the Effects of “No Action”

A relatively small percentage of riparian reserves has been actively managed for 

restoration. For example, riparian restoration could include selective thinning to 

encourage development of large trees that would in turn supply large wood to stream 

channels. Concerns by regulatory agencies about the potential negative consequences 

of streamside management activities, as well as lack of public trust, have led to 

passive restoration approaches to riparian forests in streamside buffers. A passive 

approach assumes that taking no action is synonymous with having no adverse effect. 

But is this true? Our analysis revealed a need to understand and assess the effects of 

“no-action” management options and tradeoffs of managing for one factor (e.g., water 

temperature or wood recruitment, fig. 7-1) on other ecological processes or attributes. 

Benefits of Restoration Around Streams Without Fish

Non-fish-bearing streams can comprise more than 70 percent of the stream network. They are important sources of nutrients, energy, wood, sediments, and cool 

water for fish-bearing streams further downstream. They also provide habitat for 

headwater-associated species. The ACS appears to be protecting their integrity. 

Directing restoration efforts at these upper portions of stream networks will be 

particularly important for addressing potential effects of climate change.

Figure 7-1—The largest down trees in streams generally come from areas closest to the channel.

Lee Benda
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Considering Buffer Widths in a Dynamic Ecological Context

The riparian reserve network was intended to identify the outer boundary of the 

aquatic/riparian ecosystem, and the scientific foundation for the reserves is valid. 

Some studies suggest, however, that the second site-potential tree-height on fishbearing streams may not be required to maintain microclimatic conditions within 

the first tree-height. It may be possible to move away from fixed-width riparian 

buffers toward riparian management that considers the variability in ecological 

context within the stream network and specifies management depending on ecological importance and risk. 

New analytical tools and processes are available that could be used to 

improve decisionmaking regarding riparian-reserve widths and make them more 

cost effective. However, the ability of the Forest Service and other federal land 

managers to conduct such analyses may be limited by declining workforce levels 

and technical competency.

Assessing Effects of Roads, Segment vs. Network

Roads and their effect will continue to be a major issue in the NWFP area. Continued research on road effects and development of analysis tools (e.g., the Geomorphic 

Roads Analysis and Inventory Package [GRAIP]) are important. There is a pressing 

need to understand the consequences of focusing on the environmental effects of 

small road segments rather than entire road networks. The same is true for understanding the effects of culverts on ecological processes and the movement of aquatic 

biota. Roads and ditches accelerate runoff, increasing the delivery of water and fine 

sediment to streams. Climate change is expected to increase winter precipitation in 

some parts of the Plan area and to intensify winter storms. Reducing the hydrological and biological effects of forest roads in the Plan area would improve watershed 

resilience to the adverse effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems. 

Understanding how to balance fire management, recreation, and other access 

needs against the potential negative aspects of roads will require a concerted cooperative effort among resource managers; physical, biological, and social scientists; 

and other stakeholders.

Salmon Will Benefit From Cross-Ownership Habitat Protection 

and Restoration 

Although populations of many fish in the region protected under the ESA have 

increased since development of the NWFP, federal lands do not have as much 

capacity as was originally assumed to contribute to their recovery. Federal habitat 

protection and restoration efforts alone are likely to be insufficient to reach the 
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

comprehensive goals of the NWFP relative to recovery of listed fish, particularly 

many evolutionarily significant units of Pacific salmon. However, federal lands 

remain very important to the conservation and recovery of ESA-listed fish because 

they are sources of high-quality water for many streams on nonfederal lands. It will 

be important for the Forest Service to work closely with adjoining landowners and 

other interested parties to develop more comprehensive efforts across species ranges. 

Water Contributions From Federal Lands Will Be 

Increasingly Important

The capacity of federal lands in the NWFP area to contribute water for a suite of 

purposes varies widely among forests, ranging from less than 20 percent of the total 

flow in some basins to more than 40 percent in others. The importance of these 

contributions is likely only to increase in the future as growing human populations 

demand more water. Forested watersheds close to urban centers will likely have the 

greatest increases in water demand for increasing human needs, including drinking 

water, recreation, and other uses.

Climate Change Will Necessitate New Approaches 

and Strategies 

Climate change effects will likely differ widely within and among watersheds and 

geographic areas (fig. 7-2), necessitating new approaches to identify this variation and help craft strategies and programs for mitigation and adaptation. The 

ACS has the potential to meet these challenges, but it will take a focused effort 

to do so. It will require shifting the focus of management and restoration from 

increasing the populations of aquatic and riparian organisms to increasing their 

life-history diversity. 

The primary effects of climate change in the Plan area will be warmer water 

temperatures, lower streamflows in summer, and higher streamflows in winter. 

The intensity of these changes will vary depending on location, local topographic 

features, and hydrophysiographic processes. Changes in ocean conditions (water 

temperature, acidification, and timing of upwelling), which are beyond the influence 

of federal land management agencies, may exert a stronger influence on populations 

of anadromous fish than changes in freshwater ecosystems. 

Some organisms will adapt and thrive while others are likely to decline (fig. 

7-3). Critical future research will include an examination of how species may be 

affected by climate change, and how these changes may cascade through lifehistory stages. It will also be essential to understand community-level changes. 

Also important is an understanding of the effects on water quantity and quality, 
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Figure 7-2— (A) Current and 

(B) projected (2040) summer 

water temperatures (°C) in 

the study basins in the Treaty 

of Olympia area, Washington 

(from Reeves et al. 2016a). 

Increased water temperatures 

are not expected to occur 

in a uniform pattern among 

adjacent watersheds.
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

particularly across spatial scales within watersheds, among watersheds, and across 

seasons and years. 

Aquatic invasive species have emerged as a threat that can potentially transform 

ecosystems through their interactions with native species and alteration of ecological processes. The potential impacts of aquatic invasive species will likely increase 

as a result of climate change, human activities, and other factors.

Having the capacity to do the needed analysis will also be critical for the 

involved agencies to successfully meet this challenge in a timely and effective 

manner, particularly in an era when budgets and personnel for federal land management agencies are declining. Thus, development of cost-effective and scientifically 

sound analysis procedures performed with close collaboration between research and 

management is key to addressing this need.

Figure 7-3—Lifecycle and habitat-preference strategies of freshwater fish that may determine if they are 

“winners” or “losers” in future climates of the Northwest Forest Plan area. Beneath the lists of winning 

and losing strategies is a grouping of fish along a gradient of low to high risk from climate effects. These 

groupings, somewhat subjective, are based on current knowledge of each species’ life histories, spawning 

and rearing locations in watersheds, and residence time in fresh water. 

Winning strategies Losing strategies

Habitat generalist

Shorter time in fresh water

High stray rate

Spring spawning

Brief exposure or high tolerance

 to high temperatures

Habitat specialist

Long freshwater rearing

Low stray rate

Fall spawning

Extended exposure 

 to high temperatures

native minnows

native suckers

many nonnatives

chum salmon

pink salmon

fall Chinook salmon

winter steelhead

westslope cutthroat trout

coastal cutthroat trout

sockeye salmon

coho salmon

spring Chinook salmon

summer steelhead

bull trout

mountain whitefish

Lower

risk

Higher

risk
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Monitoring

Results from the Aquatic and Riparian Effectiveness Monitoring Program 

(AREMP) suggest that conditions in aquatic and riparian ecosystems in the NWFP 

area are improving, albeit slowly, as was originally expected owing to the extensive 

amount of past degradation and lengthy time needed for recovery. Four independent parameters—water temperature, aquatic macroinvertebrates, and physical 

conditions in upslope–riparian areas and in-channel—all showed improvements to 

varying degrees. Improvements likely can be attributed to a reduction in the extent 

of roads in key watersheds and an increase in the number of large trees in riparian 

reserves. Wildfire has affected these parameters in some places in the NWFP area. 

The ecological significance of this interaction is unclear and merits examination.

Explore new monitoring approaches—

Monitoring the effectiveness of the ACS continues to be important, although 

some meaningful uncertainties remain regarding the aquatic-riparian monitoring 

approaches. When using multiple independent measures of watershed attributes, 

it is difficult to assess the overall condition of a watershed, leading to uncertainty 

about results. The lack of concordance about the direction of change among the 

monitored parameters in a given watershed also makes it difficult to assess the overall condition and trend of aquatic ecosystems. Some scientific literature suggests 

that if one parameter of interest in a sampling unit (reach or watershed) is outside 

the threshold value for suitable conditions, the unit as a whole is outside the suitable 

range. Exploration of a variety of available approaches is merited and timely.

It is unclear if AREMP’s current approach is capable of capturing the effects of 

the ACS on a wide range of ecological processes and species of aquatic and riparian 

ecosystems. Uncertainty exists about what some of the parameters in the 20-year 

assessment by the AREMP represent ecologically. It is important to clearly describe 

the ecological context of aquatic-riparian monitoring to determine the extent to 

which AREMP should focus on environmental parameters that measure habitat for 

native salmonids or on other aquatic and riparian-dependent organisms. 

Development of aquatic-riparian monitoring programs requires clearly articulating which biota and associated functional characteristics of habitats and ecosystems are being considered, tying these to our understanding of patterns of change 

over space and time, and developing criteria to assess how they are likely to be 

altered as a result of the actions of interest.

Research is also needed to better understand how the productivity of aquatic 

biota, which include organisms other than salmonids, relates to different upland 

vegetation and in-channel successional stages or restoration treatments. This type 
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of information can feed into watershed assessments to better ensure that the effects 

of the ACS are captured more comprehensively relative to the biota that are a key 

ecosystem service of aquatic-riparian ecosystems.

The 20-year assessment employed the use of reference conditions to assess the 

effectiveness of the ACS, which was different from previous assessments. When 

developing reference conditions, for comparison with current conditions, including 

the entire natural range of conditions that an ecosystem can experience (natural 

range of variability) is key. This is critical for evaluating the implications of change. 

Reference conditions that are too narrowly or too broadly defined can skew the 

interpretation of monitoring results and introduce uncertainty to the process. We 

suggest exploring further the use of reference conditions and their potential utility 

for diverse analytical approaches. For example, can they be used in concert with 

state-transition models to consider and evaluate novel potential conditions in the 

future? As our understanding of these ecological systems advances and new analytical tools are developed, we anticipate refining the objectives and approaches of 

aquatic-riparian monitoring programs, including AREMP. Advances in watershedcondition assessment procedures will be important to ensure the validity and reduce 

the uncertainty of future results and their implications for management.

We lack information about the amount, pattern, and type of restoration activities that have occurred in upland and riparian forests. Implementation monitoring 

has not been adequate to enable a sufficient understanding of the consequences of 

restoration actions (or lack of actions), especially relative to how they may have 

altered aquatic ecosystems in space and time.

Management Considerations

Utilizing New Watershed Assessment Tools

New watershed assessment tools could be used to address watershed-specific 

integrated effects of climate change, fire, landslides, roads, wood recruitment, 

and timber harvest.

Working With a Dynamic-Ecosystem Perspective

• Human impacts have altered riparian ecosystems extensively. As a result, 

riparian and aquatic ecosystems do not resemble historical conditions. 

• Addressing a dynamic-ecosystem perspective in management actions will 

be challenging, but may be necessary to meet the historic range of variability requirement in the 2012 planning rule. 
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Active Restoration May Be Needed

• Active restoration may be needed to restore altered conditions to those 

that are suitable for native aquatic and riparian organisms. Passive restoration, which assumes that “no activity equals no effect,” may not be able 

to attain desired conditions or could take hundreds of years. Additionally, 

the assumption that no action can restore aquatic-riparian ecosystems is 

questionable, and “no activity” may actually compromise or eliminate key 

ecological processes such as development of the largest trees.

Riparian Restoration

• Restoration of riparian areas on small, headwater streams may be critical in 

future efforts to restore key ecological processes such as delivery of wood, 

sediments, and nutrients to fish-bearing streams.

Considering Tradeoffs Associated With Riparian Management 

Along Fish-Bearing Streams

• There is evidence that the original justification for the second site-potential 

tree-height, included to address concerns about microclimate, is not supported by the scientific literature. However, there are other functions (e.g., 

movement corridors for terrestrial organisms) that would be compromised 

if the boundary were to be adjusted to one tree-height. 

• Options exist for managing the riparian reserves based on a dynamic ecological context rather than with a uniform prescription.

Working With Adjoining Landowners

Greater cooperation and coordination with nonfederal landowners will be needed 

for the recovery of listed fish populations. Incentive programs will likely be important in building partnerships for fish-habitat management across land ownerships.

Working With the ACS to Address Climate Change

The effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems in the NWFP area will likely 

differ widely within and among watersheds and geographic areas.

The ACS has the potential to meet these challenges, but it will take a focused 

effort to do so, including:

• Conducting local-scale analyses and addressing projected variable conditions within individual watersheds. 

• Considering “all lands” in adaptive-management approaches to retain and 

restore ACS components.
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• Shifting the focus of management and restoration from increasing population sizes to retaining the life-history diversity of aquatic and riparian organisms, and considering species adaptive capacity in management actions.

• Recognizing that there will be “winners” and “losers.” Because of their 

inherent capacity to adapt, some organisms will thrive while others are 

likely to decline.

Reviewing AREMP Procedures to Ensure that the Program 

Yields Relevant Results

The Aquatic and Riparian Effectiveness Monitoring Program is key to understanding and evaluating the effectiveness of the ACS. However, there are questions 

related to priority ecological metrics and ecosystem services about the approach 

being employed for watershed-condition assessment. In this light, a thorough and 

objective review and assessment of AREMP procedures, and other monitoring, is 

critical to ensure the effectiveness of the program and the relevance of results. 

Conclusions

The Aquatic Conservation Strategy was based on our understanding of the behavior 

and management of aquatic and riparian ecosystems in 1993. It was fully expected 

that the implementation and interpretation of the ACS would change over time 

as new knowledge and understanding about aquatic and riparian ecosystems 

developed. This assessment finds that the basis for the ACS remains sound and is 

supported by science produced since 1993. However, options exist for implementing 

parts of the ACS differently to achieve its goals, particularly around the riparianreserves where more active management may help to address potential concerns 

about the effects of the lack of disturbance (primarily wildfire) and climate change. 

There is a strong foundation for meeting the requirement of the 2012 planning 

rule that calls for managing for ecological integrity by including ecological disturbances and processes. However, this may require use of new analytical tools by a 

capable and sufficient workforce, increased cooperation with nonfederal landowners, and communication to the public, regulators, policymakers, and other interested 

groups about the basis for necessary actions and changes in future management. 
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Further Reading 

Bisson, P.A.; Dunham, J.B.; Reeves, G.H. 2009. Freshwater ecosystems and 

resilience of Pacific salmon: habitat management based on natural variability. 

Ecology and Society. 14(1): 45. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art45/. 

Cissel, J.H.; Swanson, F.J.; Weisberg, P.J. 1999. Landscape management using 

historical fire regimes: Blue River, Oregon. Ecological Applications. 9: 1217–

1231. https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/journals/0034.pdf. (21 May 2018).

Dale, V.H.; Brown, S.; Haeuber, R.A.; Hobbs, N.T.; Huntly, N.; Naiman, R.J.; 

Riebsame, W.E.; Turner, M.G.; Valone, T.J. 2000. Ecological principles and 

guidelines for managing the use of land. Ecological Applications. 10: 639–670. 

https://doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(2000)010[0639:EPAGFM]2.0.CO;2.

Naiman, R.J.; Beechie, T.J.; Benda, L.E.; Berg, D.R.; Bisson, P.A.; 

MacDonald, L.H.; O’Connor, M.D.; Olson, P.L.; Steel, E.A. 1992. 

Fundamental elements of ecologically healthy watersheds in the Pacific 

Northwest coastal ecoregion. In: Naiman, R.J., ed. Watershed management: 

balancing sustainability and environmental change. New York: Springer-Verlag: 

127–188. https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/

pub1608.pdf. (21 May 2018).

Reeves, G.; Benda, L.; Dalton, M.; Chisholm Hatfield, S. 2016a. Freshwater 

environment. In: Dalton, M.M., ed. Climate change vulnerability assessment for 

the Treaty of Olympia Tribes: a report to the Quinault Indian Nation, Hoh Tribe, 

and Quileute Tribe. Corvallis, OR: Oregon Climate Change Research Institute: 

92–142. Chapter 4. [Pagination by chapter]. 

Reeves, G.H.; Olson, D.H.; Wondzell, S.M.; Bisson, P.A.; Gordon, S.; Miller, 

S.A.; Long, J.W.; Furniss, M.J. 2018. The Aquatic Conservation Strategy of the 

Northwest Forest Plan—a review of the relevant science after 23 years. In: Spies, 

T.A.; Stine, P.A.; Gravenmier, R.; Long, J.W.; Reilly, M.J., tech. coords. Synthesis 

of science to inform land management within the Northwest Forest Plan area. 

Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-966. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 461–625. Chapter 7. https://

www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56335.

Reeves, G.H.; Pickard, B.R.; Johnson, K.N. 2016b. An initial evaluation of 

potential options for managing riparian reserves of the Aquatic Conservation 

Strategy of the Northwest Forest Plan. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-937. Portland, 

OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research 

Station. 97 p. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/50788. (21 May 2018). 
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Log deck resulting from a mechanical 

forest thinning operation in a Washington 

Douglas-fir forest. Photo by Robert Keefe.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Susan Charnley, Jeffrey D. Kline, Eric M. White, Jesse Abrams, Rebecca J. McLain, 

Cassandra Moseley, and Heidi Huber-Stearns1

Main Points

• Federal timber harvests in the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP, or Plan) area declined 

steeply following the listing of the northern spotted owl under the Endangered 

Species Act (ESA) and adoption of the Plan. This cutback in federal timber was one 

of many variables causing declines in the region’s wood products industry, however.

• The NWFP affected communities in different ways, according to their degree of 

economic dependence on the wood products industry, the role of federal timber in supporting that industry, and the extent to which local residents were 

employed by the Forest Service.

• In general, socioeconomic impacts of the NWFP were greater at the community 

than county scale, in communities closer to federal forests, in nonmetropolitan 

communities, and during the first decade following adoption of the Plan. 

• The social and economic bases of many traditionally forest-dependent communities have changed since the NWFP was implemented. Better understanding of 

the economic development trajectories taken by different communities will help 

identify forest management activities that best contribute to community wellbeing. Providing a diverse set of benefits from federal forests may help communities diversify economically.

• In addition to timber harvesting and processing, community benefits from federal forests stem from recreation on federal land, forest restoration activities, 

harvesting of nontimber forest products, and other ecosystem services.

• Methods for quantifying the value of these different benefits and evaluating 

how they are affected by federal actions are in various stages of development 

and application. 

1

Susan Charnley is a research social scientist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Pacific Northwest Research Station, 620 SW Main Street, Suite 502, Portland, OR 97205; 

Jeffrey D. Kline is a research forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331; Eric M. White is a 

research social scientist, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3625 93rd Avenue SW, Olympia, 

WA 98512; Rebecca J. McLain is an assistant research professor, Institute for Sustainable 

Solutions, Portland State University, 1600 SW Fourth Avenue, Suite 110, Portland, OR 97201; 

Cassandra Moseley is a research professor and director of the Ecosystem Workforce Program, 

Heidi Huber-Stearns is an assistant research professor and associate director and Jesse 

Abrams is a research associate of the Ecosystem Workforce Program, Institute for a Sustainable Environment, University of Oregon, 130 Hendricks Hall, Eugene, OR 97403.

Chapter 8: Socioeconomic Well-Being and Forest 

Management in Northwest Forest Plan-Area 

Communities
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Introduction

The NWFP sought to balance the conservation and restoration of late-successional and old-growth forest ecosystems with sustainable production of forest 

products from federal forest management to create social and economic benefits 

for rural communities (fig. 8-1). Securing social and economic benefits for communities and the public has been a goal of the Forest Service and Bureau of Land 

Management (BLM) since the founding of these agencies. Legislation passed 

during the first half of the 20th century emphasized providing a continuous flow 

of timber from federal forests to promote economic stability in the forestry 

industry and forest communities. Legislation since then has increased emphasis 

on environmental goals and planning requirements, while reaffirming the agencies’ traditional social and economic goals. With adoption of the NWFP in 1994, 

the goal of providing social and economic benefits to communities has continued 

alongside an increased focus on environmental protection and restoration. A 

shift, however, has been to view community benefits from federal forest management as derived not solely from traditional timber harvesting and milling, but 

also from a broad spectrum of other management activities, including ecosystem 

management, forest and watershed restoration, outdoor recreation, and nontimber 

forest products (NTFPs). 

The socioeconomic well-being of rural forest communities in the NWFP area 

(72 counties in western Washington, western Oregon, and northwestern California) 

has been the focus of NWFP socioeconomic monitoring since the Plan was adopted. 

Figure 8-1—Coos Bay, Oregon, historically supported a diversity of logging and milling operations. 

Susan Charnley
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

In chapter 8 of the NWFP science synthesis, we examine the literature pertaining 

to the impact of the NWFP on rural communities in the Plan area; how social and 

economic conditions in rural communities have changed over the past two decades; 

how goods, services, and opportunities from federal forests contribute to community socioeconomic well-being; how rural communities contribute to federal forest 

management; and what the implications of changes in land use and land ownership 

over the past two decades are for federal forest management. Here, we summarize 

our key findings and related management considerations.

Key Findings

Impact of the Northwest Forest Plan on Rural Communities

The primary concern relating to socioeconomic well-being and federal forest management in NWFP-area communities historically has been the impacts that reduced 

timber harvesting from federal lands has had on wood products workers, businesses, and timber-dependent communities. The listing of the northern spotted 

owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) as threatened under the ESA in 1990 led to a steep 

decline in timber harvests, and federal timber harvests from the Plan area since 

then have not met expected levels (fig. 8-2). Private forests currently contribute the 

vast majority of logs processed by mills in the NWFP area, with federal timber 

accounting for about 10 percent of the regional timber supply from all land ownerships in 2012 (fig. 8-3). Consistent with national trends, over the long term and 

under varying levels of federal timber supply, the number of operating mills and 

employees in the wood products sector has declined in Washington, Oregon, and 

California since 1980. By 2012, the timber sector accounted for 3 percent of jobs 

in nonmetropolitan counties in the Plan area. Overall declines in milling capacity 

also occurred in Pacific Coast States during this period, although aggregate milling capacity in Oregon has stayed relatively constant and has increased slightly in 

Washington. However, changes in the forest products industry in the Plan area were 

not solely a result of declines in timber harvesting on federal forest lands. The most 

significant factors influencing the industry have been:

• Market conditions (e.g., demands for lumber and paper products) 

• Technological advances in wood processing 

• Foreign and domestic competition

• Cost of labor and manufacturing equipment 

• Currency exchange rates 

• Timber availability. 
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Figure 8-2—Timber offered for sale and harvested from federal forests in the Northwest Forest Plan area in relation to the 

probable sale quantity (PSQ), 1995–2012 (adapted from Grinspoon et al. 2016). PSQ is an estimate of average annual timber 

sale levels likely to be achieved over a decade from the matrix lands and adaptive management areas identified by the Plan. 

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Timber harvest (million board feet)

199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

Northwest Forest Plan area, other ownership

Northwest Forest Plan area, Forest Service 

 and Bureau of Land Management

Year

Figure 8-3—Since the 1990s, the majority of timber harvested in the Northwest Forest Plan area has come from nonfederal 

lands (Grinspoon et al. 2016).

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Timber volume (million board feet)

Year

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Total offer Probable sale quantity Total harvest
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Any future declines in harvest volumes from federal forests would further 

reduce the contribution of federal timber supply to the traditional forest and wood 

products sectors of local economies within the NWFP area. If that happened, the 

forest and wood products sectors would become even more reliant on timber from 

private and state-owned forests. 

Following adoption of the NWFP, the limited social acceptability of clearcutting and of harvesting large-diameter and old-growth trees has largely confined 

federal harvests west of the Cascade Range to existing densely stocked “plantations” of younger, smaller trees within areas known as matrix lands, which under 

the NWFP were to be managed for multiple uses, including timber harvest. Timber 

harvests on federal forests could be increased by using “ecological forestry” to create early-seral vegetation that has been reduced by fire exclusion (chapter 3). 

Over the past two decades, the spotted owl listing and the NWFP have affected 

communities primarily through:

• Cutbacks in federal timber harvesting.

• Loss of federal agency jobs.

• Reductions in federal contract spending.

• Setting aside of reserve lands that exclude intensive timber production. 

Most studies have evaluated these impacts by using secondary indicator data 

pertaining to population change and economic variables such as employment, 

income, poverty levels, and property values, rather than primary data (data gathered 

at the community scale directly from community residents). Research examining 

the nature and extent of these impacts on communities has produced different findings and can be generalized as follows: 

• Population growth and decline have both been attributed to the NWFP, as 

have increases and decreases in socioeconomic well-being and increases 

and decreases in economic indicators. Some studies found no NWFP 

impact on population and economic indicators. 

• NWFP impacts on communities differed at the community and county 

scales and depended on local social, cultural, economic, and environmental contexts. 

• Impacts (both positive and negative) were greater during the first decade of 

the NWFP than during the second decade. 

• Impacts (both positive and negative) were greater in communities closer 

to national forests, or to reserved lands set aside by the NWFP, and in 

communities that had experienced a mill closure (not necessarily as a 

result of the Plan). 
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• Impacts were greater at the community scale than at the county and 

regional scales, and were greater in nonmetropolitan counties than in 

metropolitan counties. 

These differences in findings may be attributed to the unit of analysis used to 

assess impacts (i.e., region, county, community); the time period considered (first 

vs. second decade of the Plan); and the different datasets and indicators used to 

assess impacts. 

Not all communities were affected in the same way, or to the same extent—

Case-study research was undertaken in 17 NWFP-area communities using a mix 

of quantitative indicators and qualitative accounts from community residents and 

agency personnel following the first decade of the Plan. This body of work provides 

additional insight to the indicator-based studies of NWFP impacts summarized 

above. Researchers found that not all communities were affected in the same way, 

or to the same extent. The effects of the NWFP depended on the:

• Relative strength of the wood products industry as an economic sector 

around 1990.

• Extent to which federal timber supported that sector. 

• Degree to which local residents depended on federal jobs (as agency 

employees or contractors). 

Communities were heavily affected if they participated heavily in the wood 

products industry in the late 1980s and early 1990s, if loggers worked mainly on 

federal forest lands, or if local mills obtained most of their wood from federal 

forests (fig. 8-4). Communities with a large number of Forest Service or BLM 

Susan Charnley

Figure 8-4—Happy Camp, 

California, is an example of 

a forest community heavily 

affected by the Northwest 

Forest Plan owing to the 

predominance of federal land 

surrounding it, high dependence on local employment in 

the wood products industry 

during the 1970s and 1980s, 

presence of mills that obtained 

most of their wood from federal 

forests and subsequently 

closed, and a Forest Service 

district ranger office that lost 

employees from the timber 

program in particular. 
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

employees were also heavily affected. In communities where tribal or private 

forest lands were the main source of supply for the industry, the NWFP had a 

minor impact. 

Although timber workers and agency employees experienced impacts, at the 

community level, the effects of the NWFP also depended on economic activity in 

other sectors. In places where other industries were also in decline (e.g., the fishing 

industry in coastal communities), the NWFP added to these impacts. In places with 

more diversified local economies, its impacts were somewhat mitigated, although 

jobs in other sectors did not necessarily provide opportunities for those who experienced NWFP-related job loss. In communities where the timber industry had 

declined prior to the late 1980s, or was never prominent—as in some agriculturally 

oriented communities—the NWFP had little impact.

Social and Economic Change in Plan-Area Communities 

Social science research from the NWFP area has examined how communities 

have changed in the two decades since the NWFP was implemented. It forms part 

of a broader literature on rural restructuring in the American West that followed 

the decline in natural resource extraction as a prominent economic activity. Over 

the past two or three decades, many rural communities in the NWFP area have 

undergone demographic and economic changes following declines in commodity 

production. Although the population of the NWFP area has been increasing at a 

faster rate than for the United States as a whole, the majority of population growth 

has occurred in metropolitan areas, while population trends in nonmetropolitan 

communities have been variable. 

One change in NWFP-area communities has been associated with “amenity” 

fueled growth. Many communities that are fairly accessible and situated near 

desired natural amenities, such as mountains, water bodies, and other landscape features associated especially with outdoor recreation and lifestyles, have experienced 

population growth owing to in-migration by people who are seeking an improved 

quality of life or are fleeing cities, telecommuting, becoming creative entrepreneurs, 

or living off of retirement or investment incomes. Such “amenity migration” is a 

factor driving local community development in some locations. Alternatively, some 

communities have sought to maintain traditional modes of economic activity; they 

have continued to rely on forestry production, albeit at lower levels, while seeking to 

attract other forms of commodity production as well as service-oriented enterprises 

to bolster their local economy. Some of these new businesses may be perceived as 

less desirable than more traditional timber-related jobs but they nevertheless provide 

jobs, at least in the short term. Others may be illegal (e.g., marijuana cultivation 
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

on federal lands), or may seek to use natural resources in new and diverse ways 

through investments in sustainable agriculture and natural resource production and 

management. Many communities pursue a range of strategies, and their diverse 

development pathways increase their resilience to future socioeconomic uncertainty. 

Some communities have found it difficult to recover from declines in commodity production, however, and have experienced population and employment 

declines. Nevertheless, these communities have latent potential for development 

associated with the availability of labor, land, natural resources, or infrastructure 

that may become valuable in the future. Gaps in the published literature prevent us 

from quantifying the number of communities in the NWFP area that have followed 

different trajectories of change. These gaps also limit our ability to characterize the 

geographic distribution of different community types. However, other researchers 

have developed typologies that classify counties according to variables that help to 

characterize socioeconomic conditions there (e.g., fig. 8-5). 

Many Goods, Services, and Opportunities From Federal Forests 

Contribute to Community Socioeconomic Well-Being

Federal forest management in the NWFP area contributes to socioeconomic wellbeing in rural communities in many ways that go beyond providing timber and 

associated jobs in the wood products industries. Examples include jobs in forest restoration and firefighting, NTFP gathering opportunities, economic activity associated 

with recreation on federal forests, and the production of other ecosystem services.

Restoration contracts could be a significant source of forest-based jobs—

Restoration of federal forest lands benefits forest communities through associated 

economic activity that is generated from restoration work (e.g., stream rehabilitation, fish passage improvement, road decommissioning, riparian planting, forest 

fuel reduction treatments, and thinning projects designed to introduce structural 

heterogeneity to second-growth stands). These activities entail employment in 

planning, implementation, oversight, monitoring, or other duties, and some produce 

byproducts that can be used for bioenergy, with associated economic impacts. 

Restoration contracting, therefore, represents a potentially significant source of 

forest-based jobs in rural communities.

The ability of Pacific Northwest communities to compete for and obtain 

contracts for restoration work on nearby federal forests, and to retain local dollars, 

is an important factor contributing to their adaptive capacity. Understanding where 

contractors are located sheds light on where and how contracting businesses create 

local community benefit. In some regions, the restoration contracting industry has 

transitioned to lower-skill, labor-intensive jobs (e.g., thinning trees and clearing 
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Figure 8-5—Recreation-dependent counties in the Northwest Forest Plan area. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic 

Research Service 2015 county typology data. 

Napa

Curry

Deschutes

Hood River

Skamania

Kittitas

Chelan

Okanagan

Whatcom

San Juan

Jefferson

Mason

Pacific

Clatsop

Tillamook

Lincoln

Trinity

Mendocino

Sonoma

Marin

County typology

Recreation-dependent; nonmetropolitan

Recreation-dependent; metropolitan

Other nonmetropolitan

Other metropolitan

Northwest Forest Plan boundary

WASHINGTON

OREGON

CALIFORNIA

Classification method for recreationdependent county economy:

Recreation-dependent status is determined

by a weighted index comprised of three variables

from different data sources:

1. Percentage of wage employment in 

entertainment, accommodations, eating 

and drinking establishments, recreation, and 

real estate. Data source: USDC Bureau of 

Economic Analysis (BEA).

2. Percentage of personal income from these

same categories. Data source: USDC BEA. 

3. Percentage of vacant housing units classified

for seasonal or occasional use. Data source: 

USDC Census Bureau. 

BEA data are from November 2014; 

U.S. Census data are from 2010.

Data were converted to Z-scores and combined

into a weighted index; index values >0.67 (with

1.0 highest) were classified as recreationdependent.

Calculations are by the USDA Economic Research

Service, April 2016.

0 50 100 150 o Miles

Mark D. Adams
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

brush); Forest Service contracting practices for such jobs tend to favor mobile 

businesses that employ a high proportion of temporary and migrant laborers. The 

Pacific Northwest also has a high concentration of both hand crew and equipmentbased fire suppression contracting businesses, many of which also engage in forest 

restoration contracting. As both Forest Service and BLM budgets and workforces 

decline, and are constricted further by a larger proportion of the budget going to 

wildfire suppression, agencies are contracting out an increasing amount of their 

land management work, including forest restoration and some wildfire suppression. 

This suggests a continued (yet unpredictable) demand for forest-based restoration 

and fire contracting activities across the NWFP area. Although in some places 

the type of forest-related contracting has changed, many nongovernmental 

organizations and private businesses still depend on jobs in forest restoration for 

economic and social benefits and continue to build their business around meeting 

federal agency needs for forest management activities. 

Harvesting of nontimber forest products yields economic and social benefits—

Federal forests in the NWFP region are also important sources of commercial and 

noncommercial NTFPs, such as moss, mushrooms, cones, grasses, and firewood 

(table 8-1). These products provide important safety nets for rural and urban 

households. Additionally, activities surrounding their harvest, processing, and use 

often help build social relationships and cultural identities among harvesters and 

strengthen human-nature connections. The retail value of NTFPs in the United 

States is estimated to be at least $1.4 billion, with much of that coming from 

the NWFP region. Studies that have measured NTFP employment in the Pacific 

Northwest have estimated that roughly 10,000 individuals work as harvesters, 

buyers, or processors in the floral greens/bough sector, and an equivalent number 

of people earn income in the wild mushroom sector. State recreation surveys for 

Oregon and Washington suggest that the rate of participation in NTFP gathering 

and collecting (excluding hunting and fishing) exceeds that of many other outdoor 

activities. The 10- and 20-year NWFP socioeconomic monitoring reports indicate 

that the Plan likely reduced physical access to NTFPs through road closures, and 

restricted legal access to NTFPs owing to harvesting prohibitions in some latesuccessional and riparian reserves and restrictions on the harvest of special status 

plants. However, the most important impact of the NWFP on NTFP resources is 

likely the landscape-level changes in forest structure and composition brought 

about by the Plan’s management provisions. These changes may bode well for 

NTFPs such as matsutake and moss that do well in late-successional forests, but 

will lead to reduced supplies of NTFPs found in early-seral forests, such as salal 

and boughs.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Recreation in Plan-area national forests generates about 

$612.6 million annually—

Recreation visitor spending is a significant driver of economic activity in many 

forest communities within the NWFP area. Recreation on federal forests supports 

economic activity in local forest communities because visitors spend money while 

on recreation trips, and federal agencies spend money maintaining recreation 

resources (translating into jobs). Recreation visitors to Plan-area national forests 

spend about $612.6 million in the communities around those forests each year. That 

spending supports employees and proprietors of businesses that sell goods and 

services to recreationists, and generates additional economic activity through the 

multiplier effect. In general, the amount of economic activity around federal forests 

from recreation visitor spending depends on (1) the amount of recreation use, (2) the 

types of trips (i.e., day or overnight, local or nonlocal) taken by recreationists, and 

(3) the size of the local economy. The activity of recreationists can influence some 

patterns in spending, but is less important than trip type. All else being equal, those 

visitors taking overnight trips spend five to eight times more in communities near 

federal forests than do those on day trips.

Table 8-1—Commonly-harvested commercial nontimber forest 

product species in the Northwest Forest Plan area

Species Scientific name

Floral greens:

Salal Gaultheria shallon

Evergreen huckleberry Vaccinium ovatum

Beargrass Xerophyllum tenax

Tall Oregon grape Berberis aquifolium

Western redcedar Thuja plicata

Noble fir boughs Abies procera

Deer fern Blechnum spicant

Western swordfern Polystichum munitum

Mushrooms:

Morel Morchella spp.

Chanterelle Cantharellus cibarius

Matsutake Tricholoma magnivelare

Bolete Boletus spp.

Sources: (1) Blatner, K.A.; Alexander, S. 1998. Recent price trends for non-timber forest 

products in the Pacific Northwest. Forest Products Journal. 48(10): 28–34; (2) Lynch, 

K.A.; McLain, R. 2003. Access, labor, and wild floral greens management in western 

Washington’s forests. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-585. Portland, OR: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 61 p.; (3) Schlosser, 

W.E.; Blatner, K.A. 1995. The wild edible mushroom industry of Washington, Oregon, 

and Idaho. Journal of Forestry. 93: 31–36; and (4) Weigand, J. 2002. Overview of 

cultural traditions, economic trends, and key species in nontimber forest products of 

the Pacific Northwest. In: Jones, E.T.; McLain, R.J.; Weigand, J., eds. Nontimber forest 

products in the United States. Lawrence, KS: University of Kansas Press: 57–64.
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Ecosystem services benefit communities near and far from federal forests—

In addition to providing the socioeconomic benefits identified above, federal 

forests also provide other important ecosystem services to local communities and 

more distant urban populations. These include fresh water, food and fiber, wildlife 

habitat, and outdoor recreation opportunities, among others. Federal agencies are 

beginning to develop methods and protocols for evaluating ecosystem services and 

how they are influenced by various federal actions. Within the NWFP area, efforts 

largely have focused on identifying and quantifying key ecosystem services produced from the region’s national forests. Although these efforts have made significant progress in raising awareness and concern for these important forest benefits, 

formal methods for routinely including ecosystem services values into national 

forest management largely are still in development by the Forest Service and other 

organizations.

Local Workforces and Business Infrastructure Contribute to 

Federal Forest Management

Just as federal forest management can contribute to community well-being, communities can contribute to federal forest management. A skilled workforce and strong 

business infrastructure are important ways that economically healthy communities 

contribute to ecologically healthy forests and help federal agencies accomplish their 

management goals. Wood processing infrastructure in communities near federal 

forests has declined throughout the NWFP area since the 1980s. Not only has this 

decline adversely affect some Plan-area communities, lack of local infrastructure 

for processing timber and small-diameter wood make timber sales and removal of 

small-diameter material that constitutes hazardous fuels less economical, creating a 

financial barrier to forest restoration. 

Agency budgets, the number of agency employees, and the number of field 

offices have dropped substantially since the NWFP was adopted, particularly for 

the Forest Service and especially in the Pacific Northwest Region. These declines 

have reduced agency capacity to manage federal lands in the NWFP area, including 

capacity to undertake forest restoration work. One way in which the Forest Service 

has dealt with declines in budget and personnel is by outsourcing work to contractors, partners, or volunteers (fig. 8-6). Community-based organizations, local 

business partners, environmental and recreation organizations, and other groups 

have also helped raise money and provided labor to accomplish forest management 

on federal lands, filling critical gaps. But communities must have an interest in such 

activities, as well as the capacity to do so, and these are linked to their assets and 

overall community health and well-being.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Implications of Land Use and Ownership Changes for 

Forest Management

In addition to its significant area of federal and other public lands, the NWFP 

area includes a notable private land base, most of which is forested (figs. 8-7A and 

8-7B). Nonfederal lands totaled more than 11 million ac (4.45 million ha) in 2009 

in western Oregon, or about 57 percent of all land in the region. In western Washington, nonfederal lands totaled more than 10 million ac (4.05 million ha) in 2006, 

or about 65 percent of all land in that region. In NWFP-area counties in California, 

nonfederal lands comprise 48 percent of all forest land. 

Private forest lands, including both industry- and nonindustry-owned, often 

augment federal and other public lands in providing ecosystem services, despite 

having forest structural attributes that may differ from those that characterize 

forests on federal and other public lands. The uneven distribution of ecosystems, 

ownerships, and management activities across the NWFP area is one reason it 

may be difficult to meet diverse biodiversity objectives on federal lands alone. The 

area of public land in forest cover is expected to remain constant or increase in 

Figure 8-6—A partnership between the Six Rivers National Forest and the California Conservation Corps helps make it 

possible to accomplish trail work on the national forest. 

Susan Charnley
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

the foreseeable future. But private forest lands are subject to conversion to nonforest land uses, including agriculture (less likely) and residential, commercial, 

and industrial development associated with population growth (more likely). 

Forest conversion for development both fragments and reduces the total area of 

forest land, with negative ecological consequences. To date, conversion of private 

forest land to developed uses in the NWFP area has occurred more on nonindustrial than on industrial private forest lands. Although timberland investment 

management organizations and real estate investment trusts have been involved 

in several large acquisitions of previous industrial forest land in both Oregon 

and Washington, what this means for future management of such holdings, as 

well as longer-term forest land ownership trends within the NWFP area, remains 

uncertain. Federal and other public lands also can attract development to adjacent 

private lands, potentially leading to increased road densities, more human-caused 

wildfire ignitions, and greater demands for recreation, among other changes 

affecting federal lands. 

Population growth in the region and corresponding changes in land use and 

ownership, particularly those that involve conversions of forest land to low-density 

and urban development, are likely to remain a significant factor affecting the NWFP 

area. Loss of forest land to development, associated fragmentation of the remaining 

forest land base, and accompanying changes in how remaining private forest lands 

are managed suggest that policymakers and managers cannot assume that forest 

land surrounding federal lands will be the same in coming decades and available to 

contribute to NWFP objectives. 

Figure 8-7A—Land use of nonfederal lands in western Oregon 

(11 million ac [4.45 million ha]) (Lettman 2011). 

Figure 8-7B—Land use of nonfederal lands in western Washington (>10 million ac [4.05 million ha]) (Gray et al. 2013).

Forest

Agriculture

Mixed forest-agriculture

Low-density urban development

65%

17%

7%

11%

Forest

Agriculture

Mixed forest-agriculture

Low-density urban development

70% 7%

3%

20%
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Management Considerations

Federal Timber Harvests Can Help Maintain Local Wood 

Processing Infrastructure and Local Workforce, but Are 

Subject to Market and Industry Conditions

Meeting the NWFP goal of producing a predictable and sustainable supply of 

timber—one that contributes to community socioeconomic well-being—is a 

continuing management challenge. Efforts to pursue management strategies, 

such as increased use of alternative silvicultural methods or expanded restoration 

treatments, could increase the timber volume produced from federal forests. The 

influence that any increase in harvest volume from federal forests might have on the 

wood products industry and private forest land in the region is uncertain, and would 

be heavily affected by market and industry conditions largely outside of local and 

federal government control. 

Increased federal timber supply may be especially important in locations where 

it provides the means to maintain local wood processing infrastructure and a forestry workforce, where federal agencies are the primary owner of local timberlands, 

or where the local forest products industry is attempting to expand into new wood 

products markets or produce niche products. 

Timber Supply From all Ownerships Is Important for 

Maintaining Industry Infrastructure 

With federal timber harvests declining in recent decades, forest managers and 

policymakers might want to consider the capacity of private forest lands to continue supplying a sustainable volume of timber to existing processing mills within 

the NWFP area into the future. Production from private forest lands is important 

because it supports the business infrastructure needed for timber sales and restoration treatments on federal lands.

Structuring Work Contracts so Local Businesses Can Bid 

Competitively May Benefit Community and Forest Health

Finding ways to create forest restoration jobs for local residents will help build 

skills, capacity, and infrastructure needed to support management activities 

on federal forests, including fire suppression response, while promoting both 

healthy forests and healthy communities. Opportunities for local communities 

to see expanded economic activity from federal forest management are strongly 

conditioned by existing wood products processing capacity within communities, 

the structure of work contracts, and other factors. 
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

To promote more beneficial linkages between rural communities and nearby 

public lands, agencies could consider structuring contracts in ways that make 

them more accessible to businesses in local communities. For example, they could 

consider the effect of restoration contract size and scope relative to local contracting 

capacity, and provide restoration contracts in a variety of sizes to support business 

diversity. Community capacity to participate in the restoration economy is also a 

function of the consistency and predictability of contracts over time. Using a variety 

of tools (e.g., stewardship contracts, developing markets for biomass) may help build 

a predictable, sustainable program of restoration work that can justify investments 

in contracting and processing capacity. 

Planning to Attract Long-Term Investment in Processing and 

Workforce Capacity

Planning by communities and national forest units over large spatial scales and 

long timeframes could help create the consistency of work needed to attract investments in processing and contracting capacity. Doing so provides a more predictable employment base in local communities and the business capacity required to 

accomplish forest restoration. 

Encourage Development of Local Contracting Capacity for 

Fire Suppression

Given the erratic nature and small windows of demand for wildfire suppression 

contracting, local contracting capacity for fire suppression may be concentrated 

in particular regions where there is other work for businesses to do when they 

are not fighting fires. Related to this, the mobile and national nature of fire 

suppression means that local businesses trained in fire suppression will often 

be dispatched to fires outside their local community, where they spend money 

on lodging, food, fuel, and other supplies, and where fire camp support services 

are located. Thus, it may be difficult for many communities to capture fire 

suppression-related dollars locally. 

When fire resource needs and dispatch procedures allow for it, linking local 

fire suppression response capacity to less mobile resources (e.g., local fire districts, 

other fire suppression resources not signed up for national or regional deployment) 

might improve both local response and economic capture. 
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Building Agreement Regarding Biomass Harvesting and 

Processing Can Set the Stage for Further Economic Benefits 

Related to Restoration Work

The harvesting and processing of biomass materials may also help deliver economic benefits from restoration work, but biomass production has often been 

controversial and economically challenging in the NWFP area. Working closely 

with community members and other key stakeholders to build agreement on 

biomass harvesting and processing projects is important for improving opportunities for positive outcomes.

Informal Aspects of the NTFP Sector Support Community and 

Household Well-Being

A key to supporting a robust and resilient NTFP sector in the NWFP region is to 

recognize that many of the informal aspects of that sector (i.e., outside the formal 

market context) provide sufficient flexibility for some individuals and households to 

survive unforeseen crises and improve their quality of life. Informal NTFP activities 

also function to link people to each other, and strengthen human-nature connections. 

When developing forest management policies and regulatory frameworks, 

agencies may wish to consider how they will affect the informal economic activities 

associated with NTFPs and weigh carefully how the ecological benefits of largescale area closures for commercial NTFP harvesting and increased formalization 

stack up against the costs of decreased community and household well-being.

Overnight Trips by Visitors Are Moneymakers

The key factor explaining how much money recreation visitors spend in local 

communities during their recreation trips is whether they stay overnight away from 

home (either in a public campground or private business accommodations). Communities seeking to generate the greatest amount of visitor spending locally would 

do well to focus on efforts that:

• Increase the likelihood visitors will spend the night in their community.

• Support businesses that supply the types of services, goods, and experiences that recreation visitors’ desire.

Tailoring Communications About Wildfire Management to 

Specific Community Types

Wildfire management has become an important management concern for communities located near federal forests. Communities sharing similar characteristics 

are likely to encounter similar challenges and opportunities in adapting to wildfire 
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

risk. Thus, agencies and others seeking to assist communities in the wildland-urban 

interface in becoming more resilient to wildfire could develop communication and 

outreach strategies tailored to each different community type.

Conclusions

Rural communities are not all alike, forest management policies and practices affect 

different communities differently, and the social and economic bases of many traditionally forest-dependent communities have changed in the years since adoption of 

the NWFP. Better understanding and consideration of the economic development 

trajectories of different communities will help identify forest management activities that best contribute to their well-being. Providing a diverse set of benefits from 

federal forests may support communities in their efforts to diversify economically, 

and help build community resilience to future change. 

Local relationships are important. Building constructive relationships with 

place-based nongovernmental organizations and other intermediaries that are 

working to help communities become more resilient to external stressors can 

contribute to community resilience, for example, by helping communities capture 

the economic benefits from forest management activities. The stressors affecting communities include changes in federal forest management policy, markets 

for forest products, development, wildland fire, and climate change. These same 

organizations may also be able to contribute resources and capacity to help address 

unmet needs on National Forest System lands, including (but not limited to) 

maintaining trails and other recreational infrastructure, filling gaps in planning 

capacity, building local business capacity to undertake forest restoration, and leading collaborative efforts. 

Healthy forests and healthy communities are linked; thus it is in the interest 

of federal forest management agencies to contribute to community socioeconomic 

well-being, and it is in the interest of local communities to contribute to the capacity of agency managers to accomplish forest management work. 

Future research that could help fill some of the remaining knowledge gaps 

include: 

1. Studies to identify products for which wood products manufacturers in the 

NWFP area may have a competitive advantage given the realities of global 

markets for commodity wood products such as dimension lumber and 

structural panels. 
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

2. Research to better understand the full suite of costs and benefits associated 

with biomass energy development under different market and public policy 

scenarios, and to understand where and under what conditions biomass harvesting may help complement other forest management activities. 

3. Community-level studies that provide a richer understanding of how socioeconomic well-being in the Plan area has changed over time and its links to 

federal forest management.

4. Examining how connections between the Forest Service, BLM, and local 

communities can be strengthened through the use of innovative contracting tools, partnerships arrangements, agreements, and new institutional 

arrangements in which community-based organizations help fill gaps in 

federal capacity to conduct forest management and restoration. 

5. Basic research about the social, economic, and ecological aspects of NTFP 

harvesting (fig. 8-8). 

6. Research on how federal forest resource conditions and management influence recreation use and recreation behavior of local residents and visitors. 

7. Analysis of land use change, its policy drivers, and its potential effects on 

whether NWFP goals can be met in the future. 

8. Characterizing how federal forest management under the NWFP influences 

various ecosystem services, and simulating how alternative landscape-level 

management regimes over time influence potential futures and tradeoffs in 

the production of ecosystem services.

Figure 8-8—Much remains to be learned about the harvesting of even the most important nontimber forest products in the 

Northwest Forest Plan area, such as wild mushrooms and firewood. 

Rebecca McLain
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Further Reading

Charnley, S. 2006. The Northwest Forest Plan as a model for broad-scale 

ecosystem management: a social perspective. Conservation Biology. 20(2): 

330–340.

Charnley, S.; Kline, J.; White, E.M.; Abrams, J.; McLain, R.J.; Moseley, C.; 

Huber-Stearns, H. 2018. Socioeconomic well-being and forest management 

in Northwest Forest Plan area communities. In: Spies, T.A.; Stine, P.A.; 

Gravenmier, R.; Long, J.W.; Reilly, M.J., tech. coords. Synthesis of science to 

inform land management within the Northwest Forest Plan area. PNW-GTR-966. 

Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station: 625–715. Chapter 8. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/

pubs/56336.

Gray, A.N.; Azuma, D.L.; Lettman, G.J.; Thompson, J.L.; McKay, N. 2013.

Changes in land use and housing on resource lands in Washington state, 

1976–2006. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-881. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 51 p.

Grinspoon, E.; Jaworski, D.; Phillips, R. 2016. Northwest Forest Plan—the first 

20 years (1994–2013): social and economic status and trends. Report FS/R6/

PNW/2015/0006. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Pacific Northwest Region. 80 p.

Jones, E.T.; Lynch; K.A. 2007. Nontimber forest products and biodiversity 

management in the Pacific Northwest. Forest Ecology and Management. 246: 

29–37.

Kline, J.D.; Alig, R.J. 2005. Forestland development and private forestry with 

examples from Oregon (USA). Forest Policy and Economics. 7(5): 709–720.

Lettman, G.J. 2011. Land use change on non-federal land in Oregon, 1974–2009. 

Salem, OR: Oregon Department of Forestry. 69 p.

Nielsen-Pincus, M.; Moseley, C. 2013. The economic and employment impacts of 

forest and watershed restoration. Restoration Ecology. 21(2): 207–214.

White, E.M. 2017. Spending patterns of outdoor recreation visitors to national 

forests. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-961. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 70 p. 
127

Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Participants map their favorite destinations in 

the Mount Baker–Snoqualmie National Forest, 

Washington, during a human ecological mapping 

workshop. Photo by Lee Cerveny.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Lee K. Cerveny, Emily Jane Davis, Rebecca McLain, Clare M. Ryan, 

Debra R. Whitall, and Eric M. White1

Main Points

• The social dimension of natural resource management in the Northwest Forest 

Plan (NWFP, or Plan) area is dynamic and inherently complex. Systematic 

monitoring of public values, attitudes, and beliefs is critical for understanding 

what is important to those who live in the NWFP area or have a stake in its 

future. 

• Change in social systems, such as population dynamics or market shifts, 

can affect the natural environment. Likewise, fire, poor forest health, and 

other ecological changes can affect social systems. By considering the Plan 

area as an integrated social-ecological system, major shifts in the system 

can be identified and addressed. 

• People and communities form meaningful attachments to places based on 

their history of use, cultural ties, family traditions, symbolic importance, 

and lived experiences. Outdoor recreation and stewardship activities are 

an important way that people form ties to natural places. These connections with place often shape their attitudes and beliefs about how natural 

resources are managed, which can be captured through place-based planning and public engagement processes. 

• Collaborative groups involving the Forest Service and citizen stakeholders have proliferated in the past two decades. Collaboration can build trust 

and strengthen relationships among stakeholders and agencies, but research 

is still underway to determine if collaborative groups effectively achieve 

social and ecological goals. 

1

Lee K. Cerveny is a research social scientist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 400 N 34th Street, Suite 201, Seattle, WA 

98103; Emily Jane Davis is an assistant professor and extension specialist, Oregon State 

University, College of Forestry, 321 Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331; Rebecca 

McLain is an assistant research professor, Institute for Sustainable Solutions, Portland State 

University, 1600 SW Fourth Avenue, Suite 110, Portland, OR 97201; Clare M. Ryan is a 

professor, University of Washington, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Box 

352100, Seattle, WA 98195; Debra R. Whitall is assistant director of resource, planning 

and monitoring, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, 

1222 SW Third Avenue, Portland, OR 97204; Eric M. White is a research social scientist, 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3625 

93rd Avenue SW, Olympia, WA 98512. 

Chapter 9: Understanding Our Changing Public 

Values, Resource Uses, and Engagement Processes 

and Practices
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Introduction

The social context of the NWFP area has changed since the Plan was adopted in 

1994. Public values, attitudes, and beliefs about forests and the management of 

forest resources shift over time. Changing demographics related to urbanization, 

migration, or population growth can lead to shifts in environmental values, beliefs, 

and place connections. Moreover, public uses of and recreational preferences in 

national forests and other federal lands evolve with changes in consumer trends, 

economic factors, new technologies, or climate conditions. 

Also changing are the ways that citizens engage in natural resource management and share their views with land management agencies. Many people now seek 

direct involvement in decisionmaking about public lands. Emerging collaborative 

structures that attempt to bring together multiple agencies and stakeholders to deliberate and plan for resource management have become prevalent. 

The social dimension of natural resource management in the NWFP is dynamic 

and inherently complex. Effective management requires significant resources, 

strong social networks, and collective engagement of agencies, institutions, and 

individuals in diverse policy arenas within the NWFP planning area. Collaborative 

management and expanded emphasis on transparent public processes that engage 

diverse stakeholders can help navigate this terrain. Although there is no guarantee 

that these efforts will result in an outcome that is widely embraced, a process that 

generates mutual understanding, leads to informed decisions, incorporates new 

knowledge, and recognizes diverse uses and values would be a step forward. 

Scientists and forest managers are updating their thinking about the variety of 

forest benefits that serve society; they are also developing methods for measuring 

and comparing a diverse array of tangible and intangible forest benefits. Cultural 

ecosystem services provide a framework for considering the diversity of spiritual, 

aesthetic, recreation, heritage, discovery and learning, and therapeutic benefits 

associated with forest settings. As managers seek strategies for more integrated and 

holistic resource management by using an ecosystem services approach, the importance of considering an array of public values (including aesthetic, recreational, 

spiritual, and heritage) becomes paramount.

In the past two decades, scientists have explored and embraced new conceptualizations of ecosystems and ways to describe their benefits to people. Scientists 

increasingly recognize that conservation initiatives are more likely to lead to betterinformed decisions when ecological and social elements are linked. By considering 

the NWFP area as an integrated social-ecological system, with a complex web of 

interactions, forces, dynamics, and elements, we can recognize and address major 

shifts in that system and understand their corresponding effects on the natural and 
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social environment. This system includes public and private lands, governing agencies 

(federal, state, tribal), communities of place (municipalities, counties), and communities of interest (stakeholders, user groups). We recognize that the social dimensions of 

the NWFP area influence how ecological goals are established and addressed. 

This integrated social-ecological knowledge can help land managers assess how 

forest management practices and policies, as well as human activities, can alter forest conditions. It can also illuminate how large-scale ecological processes, such as 

fire or invasive species, can fundamentally modify human-environmental relationships. Integrated and interdisciplinary research efforts can be designed to capture 

the critical intersection of human and natural connections.

Chapter 9 of the NWFP science synthesis is organized around a series of questions provided by land managers to the science team; we relied on available literature to respond to these questions. Key findings and management considerations 

from that chapter are summarized below. 

Key Findings

Environmental Values Appear to Be Shifting

Americans appear to be shifting their environmental values, preferring a balance 

between resource protection and production rather than a prominent emphasis on 

production. This trend is apparent in the NWFP area, although survey data suggest 

subregional variability. 

Systematic monitoring of public values, attitudes, and beliefs held by people 

in the NWFP area would enhance our understanding of what is important to those 

who have an interest in the future of these lands. As population changes occur, new 

migrants can influence the existing composition of values and attitudes. Periodic 

monitoring would reveal shifts over time as well as regional variations. 

Surveys indicate public support for harvest strategies that mimic 

natural processes—

Existing studies in the NWFP area show that in locales studied, respondents generally did not support clearcutting as a harvest strategy and did not favor harvesting 

old growth. Additional research about the social acceptability of harvest practices is 

warranted, with emphasis on public knowledge and perceptions of ecological forestry 

as well as traditional forms, reactions to a diversity of treatment types and setting 

conditions (e.g., old-growth forest), and a focus on understanding the role of trust and 

communication on shaping public responses. Without adequate data on public preferences for forest and rangeland management practices, land managers are left to make 

decisions based on information gathered in public meetings or in small studies that 

are not coordinated regionally and may not be generalized to the broader population. 
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Recreation

Short trips to developed sites are the norm—

Most visits to national forests are relatively brief, lasting less than one-half day, and 

are focused on recreation at developed sites (e.g., day-use areas, campgrounds, visitor centers). These visits tend to focus on general activities such as hiking, viewing 

nature and wildlife, and visiting nature centers.

Population growth will drive future increases—

At the national level, the numbers of people participating in outdoor recreation will 

increase in coming decades with continued population growth.

The greatest barriers to participating in outdoor recreation include:

• Lack of discretionary time. 

• Distance to national forests.

New research is needed to understand how the Forest Service can accommodate 

current and future demands for the full suite of leisure preferences by Americans 

and specific desired outcomes from national forest recreation. 

Valuing Place 

People can form strong emotional attachments to places—

• Ties with places can be based on repeated experiences of that place and 

by stories, symbolic representations, and memories.

• Place attachments can affect public attitudes toward management of those 

places and trigger “place-protective” behaviors.

• Place attachments are potential drivers of volunteer stewardship and 

collaborative engagement. 

Place meanings are dynamic and constantly being renegotiated— 

• A public engagement process that emphasizes multiple ways of collecting 

information about place meanings and that is designed to reach out to a 

broad spectrum of the public can be used to capture the range of meanings. 

• The variability that exists in place meanings, together with the strong feelings involved in people-place relationships, suggest that broad-based public 

engagement processes are critical early in the planning process. 
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Cultivating Trust Through Public Engagement

Trust can be enhanced through participation in various types of public engagement 

opportunities and in collaborative or co-management groups, in which procedural, 

rational, and affinitive trust may be cultivated. 

Research has identified and defined multiple types of trust in the context of 

natural resource management: 

• Dispositional (one’s natural inclination to trust).

• Rational (stemming from predictable behavior, past performance, and 

reasoned logic).

• Affinitive (based on personal relationships and familiarity that develop 

through repeated encounters).

• Procedural (based on having processes that are viewed as fair, just, and open).

For broader trust in natural agencies to be activated, at least three of the four 

types of trust are needed. 

Integrating foundational methods and practices of public engagement into 

programmatic forest planning can increase the likelihood that land management 

decisions better reflect the diverse range of public and tribal interests. 

Social science provides methods for understanding values, attitudes and beliefs; 

stakeholder and social network analysis; and place identity and attachment through 

tools like public participation geographic information systems (fig. 9-1). 

Figure 9-1—Participants map their favorite destinations in the Mount Baker–Snoqualmie National 

Forest, Washington. This process was used to identify priority destinations as part of travel management planning for the forest.

Lee Cerveny
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Agency-Citizen Collaboration

The durability of collaborative groups depends on deep investment of resources and 

staff time. Research is still underway about the effectiveness of collaborative groups 

for achieving social and ecological goals. 

Despite the proliferation of collaborative groups in the NWFP area, it is not possible to say if communities are more engaged in dialogue with the agency than they 

were prior to the Plan because no indicators for engagement have been established. 

Few systematic scientific evaluations have been conducted to determine collaborative success in achieving resource management goals, or social or economic 

objectives. No studies measure these goals or outcomes, or identify what can 

be attributed specifically to collaboratives as opposed to other variables such as 

economic change, agency or other organizational change, efforts from programs, or 

activities occurring outside the collaboratives. However, research has shown that 

collaboration can strengthen relationships among stakeholders and agencies and 

build trust.

Until we have definitive results, we do not know if collaboration is the ultimate 

answer. Research on collaboratives tends to occur via singular case studies, which 

are not generalizable to broader scales. Large-scale, comprehensive studies of 

collaborative forest management and its effects on forest health and socioeconomic 

well-being are needed. 

Management Considerations

Understanding Public Values, Attitudes, and Beliefs Is 

Advantageous 

This understanding enables managers to anticipate conflicts in values and develop 

strategies for communicating with stakeholders. 

Land managers who have access to current information about the values, 

beliefs, and preferences of both the general public and a variety of stakeholders and 

socioeconomic groups will be better equipped to understand characteristics of their 

social system and anticipate the need for change. 

Stakeholders and Citizens in the NWFP Area Generally Do 

Not Support Clearcutting, Particularly in Old Growth, as a 

Desirable Silviculture Strategy 

Northwest Forest Plan-area residents embody a range of views related to the social 

acceptability of various harvest practices and these views are based on their values 

and attitudes, connections to places, knowledge of harvest practices, awareness of 

management goals and predicted outcomes, and degrees of trust. 
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Recreation Visits Are Expected to Grow in Day-Use Settings 

and Developed Facilities 

Information on current use patterns and projected trends is useful when considering 

the amount of resources committed to managing general, common recreation activities versus more specialized, but perhaps higher profile, activities in which fewer 

people are engaged. 

Addressable barriers to recreation— 

Factors that the Forest Service has the ability to influence include:

• Improved personal safety at recreation sites.

• Improved signage.

• Availability of quality information for recreation visitors. 

• Appropriate setting to meet needs of diverse forest users.

Places and the Meanings That Are Bound Up in Them Have 

Real Implications for Forest Ecosystem Management

Participatory mapping is useful for visualizing the diversity of place connections. 

Place-based planning ensures that place connections are integrated with broader 

planning efforts. A growing emphasis on cultural ecosystem services will allow 

resource managers to recognize the variety of benefits associated with a forest and 

stakeholder attachment to sets of these benefits. 

Managers can harness the positive power of place. The bonds that people have 

with places can motivate them to engage in forest stewardship projects. By recognizing and appealing to these bonds, managers may attract volunteers with substantial knowledge of social and ecological conditions to accomplish objectives.

Trust and Decisionmaking Processes

Developing decisionmaking processes and protocols that are consistent, 

reliable, fair, and transparent can help improve institutional trust—

The degree of trust established among public agencies, stakeholders, and communities is an important factor in public support for resource management decisions. 

Public trust of natural resource agencies may vary between the local (or project) 

level and the national (broad-based) level. Mutual accountability is critical for 

building long-term trust. Having clearly stated objectives, consistent communication, transparent processes, reasonable timelines, honored commitments, and 

opportunities for candid deliberation can enhance trust. Enduring personal relationships also are important. 
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The quality of a resource management decision is strongly dependent on the 

quality of the process that leads to it— 

Designing public involvement strategies that resonate with a dynamic and diverse 

range of interests helps ensure sound decisionmaking. Best practices for inclusive 

decisionmaking processes include:

• A philosophy of empowerment, equity, and inclusiveness.

• Systematic assessment of potentially relevant stakeholders and strategies to 

encourage participation. 

• Engaging stakeholders early and providing opportunities for frequent 

interactions throughout the process.

• Clear objectives, timelines, and parameters.

• Skilled facilitation. 

• Integrating local and scientific knowledge. 

• Enduring agency commitment to the process.

Collaboration and Public Engagement

Collaboration takes time, resources, and long-term commitment from 

all parties— 

Managers seeking to initiate or participate in a collaborative group process may 

want to ensure that they have adequate resources and staffing to support a longterm relationship. 

Elements of successful agency participation in collaboration include:

• Open communication.

• Clear expectations. 

• Realistic information about internal priorities, plans, and 

decisionmaking latitude. 

Collaborative groups may be part of the solution to increasing trust and social 

license for forest management to meet NWFP and other goals.

Different phases of forest plan revision or any management decision process 

may call for different levels of public engagement— 

The key is defining these various levels of public participation prior to initiation 

of plan revision. This will help support a meaningful and robust public participation process. 
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

When “collaboration” is used as a catch-all term for public involvement, it 

leads to conflicting expectations—

This can reduce trust and willingness to participate in long-term planning. 

Collaboration is not the answer for every situation— 

Not every stakeholder will be eager to participate in an organized collaborative 

group or process. The scope, scale, and projected outcomes of a given collaborative 

effort may make it more relevant and accessible to some stakeholders than others. 

In some cases, the outcome from an agency appeal or court ruling may be preferred 

over collaboration. 

Conclusions

Conservation goals are most often met when ecological and social elements are 

integrated. Changes to society, including demographic shifts, changes in human 

settlement patterns, and new governance structures or regulations can affect interactions with the natural environment. Conversely, large-scale landscape and climate 

variations can affect human institutions, such as markets and communities. Greater 

awareness about how social and ecological systems intersect will help resource 

managers improve the quality of their decisionmaking. This includes greater understanding of human values and management preferences, place-relations, resource 

uses, and visitation patterns. 

New participatory strategies have attempted to democratize and deepen citizen 

engagement in environmental decisionmaking. The proliferation of collaborative 

institutions has the potential to influence future management of ecological systems. 

As agencies expand their conceptualizations of forest resources from “sustained 

yield” to “ecosystem management” to “ecosystem services” in the NWFP area, 

this will certainly have on-the-ground implications. Greater recognition of diverse 

stakeholder values and place attachments, of shifting visitation patterns across the 

forest landscape, and of the opportunities for public expression of these values will 

enhance efforts to understand the Plan area as a dynamic and integrated ecological 

and social system. 
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Further Reading

Allen, S.D.; Wickwar, D.A.; Clark, F.P.; Dow, R.R.; Potts, R.; Snyder, S.A. 

2009. Values, beliefs, and attitudes technical guide for Forest Service land and 

resource management, planning, and decision-making. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNWGTR-788. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station. 112 p.

Cerveny, L.K.; Davis, E.J.; McLain, R.; Ryan, C.M.; Whitall, D.R.; White, 

E.M. 2018. Understanding our changing public values, resource uses and 

engagement processes and practices. In: Spies, T.A.; Stine, P.A.; Gravenmier, 

R.; Long, J.W.; Reilly, M.J., tech. coords. Synthesis of science to inform land 

management within the Northwest Forest Plan area. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNWGTR-966. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station: 717–807. Chapter 9. https://www.fs.usda.gov/

treesearch/pubs/56337.

Davis, E.J.; White, E.M.; Cerveny, L.K.; Seesholtz, D.; Nuss, M.L.; Ulrich, 

D.R. 2017. Comparison of USDA Forest Service and stakeholder motivations 

and experiences in collaborative federal forest governance in the Western United 

States. Environmental Management. 60(5): 908–921.

International Association for Public Participation. 2014. IAP2’s public 

participation spectrum. https://cdn.ymaws.com/www.iap2.org/resource/resmgr/

foundations_course/IAP2_P2_Spectrum_FINAL.pdf. (28 May 2018). 

McLain, R.; Poe, M.; Biedenweg, K.; Cerveny, L.K.; Besser, D.; Blahna, D.J. 

2013. Making sense of human ecology mapping: an overview of approaches to 

integrating socio-spatial data into environmental planning. Human Ecology. 

41(5): 651–665.

Stern, M.J.; Baird, T.D. 2015. Trust ecology and the resilience of natural 

resource management institutions. Ecology and Society. 20(2): 14.
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Inner City Youth Institute, High School 

Natural Resources Camp, Multnomah 

Falls, Oregon.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Susan Charnley, Delilah Jaworski, Heidi Huber-Stearns, Eric M. White, 

Elisabeth Grinspoon, Rebecca J. McLain, and Lee Cerveny1

Main Points

• The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP, or Plan) monitoring program did not 

explicitly consider environmental justice in terms of how the NWFP affects 

low-income or minority populations, other than American Indian tribes, in 

the Plan area. As a result, we cannot specify what the socioeconomic effects 

of the NWFP on environmental justice populations other than American 

Indian tribes have been. 

• Environmental justice populations in the Plan area are increasing. In particular, the percentage of the population identifying as Hispanic or Latino 

has doubled in nonmetropolitan counties since the 1990s, and nearly tripled 

in metropolitan counties. 

• Poverty rates were uniformly higher in nonmetropolitan counties than in 

metropolitan counties in the Plan area between 1990 and 2012, and were 

higher than the national average, although poverty rates for the Plan area as 

a whole were lower than the national average. 

• Growth in environmental justice populations, and their prominence in the 

environmental workforce and in commercial gathering of nontimber forest products on federal forest lands in the Plan area, point to the need for 

ongoing research into how these populations relate to federal forests and are 

affected by federal forest management. 

1 Susan Charnley is a research social scientist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 620 SW Main Street, Suite 502, Portland 

OR 97205; Delilah Jaworski is a social scientist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Rocky Mountain Region, 1617 Cole Boulevard, Lakewood, CO 80401; Heidi 

Huber-Stearns is an assistant research professor and associate director of the Ecosystem 

Workforce Program, University of Oregon, Institute for a Sustainable Environment, 130 

Hendricks Hall, Eugene, OR 97403; Eric M. White is a research social scientist, U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3625 93rd

Avenue SW, Olympia, WA 98512.; Elisabeth Grinspoon is a regional social scientist, 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, 1220 SW 

3rd Avenue, Portland, OR 97204; Rebecca J. McLain is an assistant research professor, 

Portland State University, Institute for Sustainable Solutions, 1600 SW 4th Avenue, Suite 

110, Portland, OR 97201; Lee Cerveny is a research social scientist, U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 400 N. 34th Street, Suite 

201, Seattle, WA 98103. 

Chapter 10: Environmental Justice, Low-Income 

and Minority Populations, and Forest Management 

in the Northwest Forest Plan Area 
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Introduction

Environmental justice includes the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all 

people regardless of race, color, national origin, or income with respect to the development, implementation, and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations, and 

policies (USEPA 2013). The 1994 Executive Order (E.O.) 12898, Federal Actions to 

Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations, requires federal land managers to identify and address any disproportionately 

high and adverse human health and environmental effects of agency programs, 

policies, and actions on minority and low-income populations. An environmental 

justice population is a group of people that meets the criteria for low-income or 

minority status under E.O. 12898. 

Northwest Forest Plan socioeconomic monitoring has not explicitly monitored 

Plan impacts on low-income or minority populations other than American Indian 

tribes; thus we are unable to specify how the NWFP has affected these populations. 

However, federal land managers in the Plan area submitted several priority management questions pertaining to environmental justice and forest management for 

consideration in the NWFP science synthesis. We focus on two:

1. What are the trends in the size of low-income and minority populations in the 

NWFP area since the Plan was adopted, and what is their current geographic 

distribution?

2. How do low-income and minority populations interact with federal forests 

in the NWFP area?

In the absence of monitoring data, we relied mainly on existing scholarly 

research studies to address these guiding questions. American Indian tribes are 

the subject of chapter 11; here the focus is on other minority populations. The 

published literature about environmental justice populations and their relations 

with federal forests in the Plan area deals primarily with the environmental 

workforce, commercial nontimber forest product (NTFP) gathering, and recreation. Two emergent topics that are less well documented but for which research 

is ongoing are (1) nonrecreational camping on federal forests, particularly homelessness; and (2) the impacts of wildfire management activities on environmental 

justice populations.

Here we summarize key findings from chapter 10 of the NWFP science synthesis and their implications for forest management in the NWFP area. 
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Key Findings

Trends in Low-Income and Minority Populations in the 

Northwest Forest Plan Area 

U.S. Census data provide the best available information on low-income and minority populations across the 72 counties (32 metropolitan, 40 nonmetropolitan) that 

comprise the Plan area. According to census data, the size and percentage of 

environmental justice populations have increased since the NWFP was adopted, 

consistent with national trends. This increase has occurred both in the size of lowincome populations (measured by number of people living below the poverty line), 

and the number of people belonging to minority groups specified by E.O. 12898. 

Poverty rates increased but were lower overall than the national rate—

The poverty rate in the NWFP area as a whole increased from 11.2 to 14.7 percent 

of the region’s population between 1990 and 2012 (table 10-1). Nevertheless, this 

was lower overall than the national poverty rate during the three periods reported 

here. Although poverty rates fell in many subregions of the Plan area between 1990 

and 2000, those improvements were more than offset by increases in poverty across 

the Plan area between 2000 and 2012. 

Table 10-1—County-level poverty rates in the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) 

area, 1990, 2000, and 2012

1990

poverty rate

2000

poverty rate

2012

poverty rate

Percent

United States 13.5 11.3 15.0

All NWFP counties 11.2 10.0 14.7

All metropolitan counties 10.3 9.1 13.9

All nonmetropolitan counties 15.3 14.2 19.0

All California NWFP counties 11.4 11.1 15.4

All California metropolitan counties 9.6 9.0 13.1

All California nonmetropolitan counties 15.6 16.4 21.7

All Oregon NWFP counties 12.2 10.4 16.9

All Oregon metropolitan counties 11.4 9.7 16.4

All Oregon nonmetropolitan counties 15.2 13.2 19.2

All Washington NWFP counties 10.5 9.4 13.2

All Washington metropolitan counties 9.9 8.8 12.8

All Washington nonmetropolitan counties 15.1 13.3 16.7

Source: U.S. Census Bureau small-area income and poverty estimates. 
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In summary:

• Poverty rates were uniformly higher in nonmetropolitan counties than in 

metropolitan counties during the analysis period, and they were also higher 

than the national average. 

• Overall, poverty rates were highest in Oregon and lowest in Washington in 

both 1990 and 2012. However, in California, nonmetropolitan counties area 

had the highest poverty rates within the Plan area during that period, and 

also experienced the greatest increase in poverty.

• The highest poverty rates are concentrated in northern California and southern Oregon (fig. 10–1). Counties with the lowest poverty rates are concentrated 

around the greater San Francisco, Portland, and Seattle metropolitan areas. 

Racial and ethnic diversity increased—

The percentage of the population identifying as a racial or ethnic minority grew in 

both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties within the Plan area between 1990 

and 2012 (table 10-2). Most notably, the percentage of the population identifying 

as Hispanic or Latino doubled in nonmetropolitan counties, and nearly tripled in 

metropolitan counties in the Plan area. The percentage of the White population 

declined more in metropolitan counties than in nonmetropolitan counties. Plan-area 

counties with high concentrations of minority residents are clustered near California’s Central Valley and east of the Cascade Range crest in Washington (fig. 10-2). 

Table 10-2—Minority populations in the Northwest Forest Plan area, 1990, 2000, and 2012

1990 2000 2012

Plan 

area

NonmetropolitanMetropolitanPlan 

area

NonmetropolitanMetropolitanPlan 

area

NonmetropolitanMetropolitan

Percent

American Indian and 

Alaska Native

2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 2 

Asian, Native 

Hawaiian, other 

Pacific Islandera

4 1 4 5 1 6 7 2 9 

Black or African 

American

3 1 3 3 1 3 3 1 4 

White 92 95 92 88 93 86 84 90 82 

Hispanic or Latinob 5 6 5 9 7 8 14 12 14 

≥ two racesc 3 2 3 4 4 4 

a

 The 1990 Census grouped Asians and Pacific Islanders into one category. In 2000, this category was divided into two: Asian, and 

Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander. For consistency across years, we have grouped these two back into one category. 

b Hispanic or Latino is a category of ethnicity. Individuals may identify as Hispanic or Latino and any of the racial categories 

(e.g., Hispanic or Latino and White, Hispanic or Latino and Black). Therefore, table totals will not sum to 100 percent.

c This category was not available on the 1990 census form. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau population estimates.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Figure 10-1—Percentage of people living in poverty in Northwest Forest Plan-area counties, 2012. 

San Francisco

Portland

Seattle

Poverty percentage

8–13

13–16

16–18

18–21

21–25

Metropolitan county

Northwest Forest Plan boundary

State boundary

OREGON

WASHINGTON

CALIFORNIA

o

Clara Dair
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Figure 10-2—Percentage of minority populations (combined) in Northwest Forest Plan-area 

counties, 2012. 

Portland

Seattle

OREGON

WASHINGTON

CALIFORNIA

San Francisco

Minority percentage

8.2–13.8

13.9–18.2

18.3–26.2

26.3–33.9

34–63.2

Metropolitan county

Northwest Forest Plan boundary

State boundary

o

Clara Dair
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

The NWFP area had a higher percentage of the total population that was 

American Indian or Alaska Native, and Asian, Native Hawaiian, and other Pacific 

Islander compared with the nation as a whole in 2012, but a substantially lower 

percentage of the total population that was Black or African American, or Hispanic 

or Latino, compared with the nation as a whole. 

• American Indian and Alaska Native populations were more prevalent in nonmetropolitan counties than in metropolitan counties of the Plan area between 

1990 and 2012. In 2012, they accounted for a higher percentage of the population in nonmetropolitan counties in California than in other subregions. 

• Black or African American, and Asian, Native Hawaiian, and other Pacific 

Islander populations formed a higher percentage of the population in metropolitan than in nonmetropolitan counties, and the highest percentage population for both was in metropolitan counties in Washington. 

• The percentage of the population identifying as Hispanic or Latino was 

high relative to other minority groups in the Plan area as a whole, and was 

similar between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. 

• The percentage of the population that was Hispanic or Latino was highest 

in California counties. 

Many poor counties in the Plan area also have large shares of minority residents. 

However, poverty is not limited to those areas having high concentrations of minorities. We did not examine how trends in minority group populations and poverty 

rates may be linked. Nevertheless, at the national level, Black or African American, 

American Indian, and Hispanic or Latino populations in the United States experience significantly higher rates of poverty than White and Asian populations.

Use of Federal Forests in the NWFP Area by Low-Income 

and Minority Populations

Different populations maintain different relations to federal forests, have different 

use preferences, and face different constraints that influence their use of federal 

forests, though variation within groups exists (as it does among all demographic 

groups). The scientific literature regarding relations between environmental justice 

populations and federal forests in the Pacific Northwest is limited, and as already 

noted, focuses mainly on participation by low-income and minority populations in 

the environmental workforce, the gathering of NTFPs, and recreation. 

A strong presence in the environmental workforce—

Regarding the environmental workforce, forest workers in the NWFP area are 

predominantly Hispanic or Latino. They work as contractors who perform a variety 
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of labor- and equipment-intensive forestry work on federal forests (fig. 10-3), in addition to participating in fire-suppression crews. Much of the published literature about 

forest workers draws attention to the low job quality they have experienced over the 

past few decades. These poor working conditions include low wages, lack of stable 

employment, no benefits, long travel distances to work sites, disrespectful treatment, 

little opportunity to advance, unsafe working environments, high rates of injury and 

fatality, lack of training opportunities, and fear of retaliation or deportation if they 

complain. Although there have been some improvements in recent years, especially 

in the area of fire-suppression work, debates over how to address these poor working 

conditions remain unresolved. To date, federal agencies have not notably changed 

their oversight of service contract crews or enforcement of labor law provisions. 

Figure 10-3—Forest workers cut and pile roadside brush on the Six Rivers National Forest in California. Forest workers in the Northwest Forest Plan area are predominately Hispanic or Latino.

Susan Charnley

Active in commercial NTFP harvesting—

Environmental justice populations in the NWFP area—particularly Southeast 

Asians, Hispanic or Latinos, and low-income Whites—also play an active role in 

the commercial NTFP industry, with Hispanic or Latinos especially prominent in 

the floral greens industry and Asians prominent in the wild mushroom industry (fig. 

10-4). National forests and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands are important 

harvesting sites, but there has been virtually no published research documenting the 

impact of the NWFP on environmental justice populations who harvest NTFPs there. 

Although these populations are affected by agency regulations associated with NTFP 
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Figure 10-4—Southeast Asians play a prominent role in the matsutake industry. 

Rebecca McLain

harvesting and management practices influencing the distribution and productivity 

of the species they target, they have been underrepresented in developing regulations 

and management guidelines for NTFPs on federal forests in the Plan area. 

Important issues for managers to be aware of include potential social tensions 

between commercial gatherers and those primarily interested in recreational, subsistence, and cultural gathering; tenure arrangements governing access to NTPFs; 

physical safety of harvesters when they are out in the forest; fear of encounters 

between undocumented workers and immigration and law enforcement officers; 

challenges associated with illegal harvest activities (e.g., theft); and the right to 

safe working conditions and fair employment practices for harvesters.

Low recreation participation—

In contrast, recreation visitation by environmental justice populations to national 

forests in the NWFP area is relatively low (tables 10-3 and 10-4). Nationwide, 

different racial and ethnic groups exhibit different preferences for types of outdoor 

recreation activity, although visiting developed sites and viewing and photographing 

nature are the most popular activities among all groups, including Whites. A main 

barrier to recreating on national forests for low-income populations is the cost of the 

trip. Among minorities, distance, cost, lack of transportation, safety concerns, lack 

of awareness about recreation opportunities, and lack of information in languages 

other than English are additional barriers. 
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Table 10-3—Visits to national forests in the Northwest Forest Plan area and 

nationally by people age 16 and older by household income 

Annual household income

Plan area 

2006–2010 

Plan area

2011–2015

National

2011–2015

Percent

Under $25,000 10 12 10

$25,000–$49,000 24 18 18

$50,000–$74,999 25 23 22

$75,000–$99,999 18 20 18

$100,000–$149,999 15 17 16

$150,000 and up 8 11 16

Source: U.S. Forest Service National Visitor Use Monitoring Survey Results—National Summary Report. 

https://www.fs.fed.us/recreation/programs/nvum/pdf/5082016NationalSummaryReport062217.pdf. (13 

December 2017). 

Table 10-4—Visits to national forests in the Northwest Forest Plan area and 

nationally by people age 16 and older by minority group

Plan area

2006–2010 

Plan area

2011–2015 

National 

(2011–2015)

Percent

American Indian and 

Alaska Native

3 3 2

Asian 2 3 2

Black or African American 1 1 1

White 96 95 95

Native Hawaiian and other 

Pacific Islander

1 1 1

Hispanic or Latino 4 4 6

Source: U.S. Forest Service National Visitor Use Monitoring Survey Results—National Summary Report. 

https://www.fs.fed.us/recreation/programs/nvum/pdf/5082016NationalSummaryReport062217.pdf. (13 

December 2017). 

Management Considerations

Improving Working Conditions for the Environmental Workforce

The forestry workforce is increasingly represented by Hispanics or Latinos and 

other environmental justice populations; thus it is important that federal forest managers address the issue of working conditions for forest workers. Doing so means 

considering contracting markets and contract oversight, which include bidding on, 

awarding, and monitoring compliance for projects. Based on the literature, the following actions might help improve working conditions for forest workers. 

• The Forest Service and BLM already stipulate in service contracts that 

contractors must comply with all relevant labor laws. These agencies could 

enforce the provisions of their own contracts more rigorously.
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• Agencies could examine how the features of fire-suppression contracting 

that are beneficial to workers could be incorporated into other, non-fire 

contracts (e.g., specific contract requirements and more oversight). 

• Agencies could strengthen policies to make labor-law-compliance inspection more consistent, combining these inspections with technical specification inspections, and increasing agency inspector training. 

• The competitive low-cost bid process could be changed to reduce contractor incentives for cutting costs, and explicitly incorporate the costs of safety 

training and daily safety briefings into contract awards. 

• Increase the ability of forest communities to capture contracting opportunities on nearby federal forests. Examples include structuring contracts 

in ways that allow local communities to benefit, e.g., by facilitating local 

training opportunities or changing contracting guidelines, and addressing 

obstacles that inhibit local contractor participation. 

• Use local restoration contracting service providers for fire suppression to 

support local forest contracting capacity, and the ability of local contractors 

to capture contracts during wildfires. 

Nontimber Forest Products

The literature offers numerous insights pertaining to issues associated with NTFP 

gathering and management on federal forest lands in the Pacific Northwest raised 

by environmental justice populations. They include addressing harvesters’ safety 

concerns associated with NTFP gathering (e.g., encouraging harvesters to wear 

blaze-orange vests), and examining how policies, including tenure arrangements 

for NTFP harvesting on federal forests, affect the working conditions and earnings 

of harvesters. Consideration of how federal forest management activities affect 

the abundance, distribution, diversity, and quality of economically and culturally 

important NTFP species also warrants more attention in the planning process.

Minimizing Barriers to Recreation

Minority and low-income populations are currently underrepresented among visitors across the entire National Forest System (fig. 10-5). Management considerations 

to overcome constraints to recreation participation by these populations on federal 

forests in the Plan area include: 

• Improving information about available recreation opportunities, for example by providing information in multiple languages and working with media 

outlets that target these populations. 
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• Improving transportation options to urban national forests. 

• Increasing recreation opportunities and facilities that match these users’ preferences, such as developing recreation sites that accommodate large groups.

• Finding appropriate ways to address safety concerns associated with visiting federal forests.

• Improving outreach, for example by making people aware of volunteer and 

employment opportunities on national forests, and developing partnerships 

and relationships with organizations that promote outdoor experiences for 

low-income and minority groups.

• Finding ways to alleviate cost barriers to recreation participation.

Figure 10-5—Distance to primitive settings and the cost of recreation, including equipment expenses, are constraints to outdoor recreation participation by low-income and minority populations. 

Emily Jane Davis
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Nonrecreational Camping and Homelessness

The frequency of homelessness and long-term camping on national forests is increasing. Recognition by agency management of the resource impacts and social effects 

associated with long-term camping would spotlight concerns raised by law enforcement. Treating homelessness as a chronic and systemic phenomenon in which the 

agency plays a critical role would potentially lead to greater acceptance of responsibility and action. The Forest Service could develop partnerships with public health 

agencies, social service agencies, municipal police, and citizen groups to identify 

safe housing options in local communities for homeless populations to help alleviate 

undesirable resource impacts and social effects associated with long-term camping.

Wildfire Management

Poverty and minority status are among the social variables that researchers use as 

indicators of social vulnerability. Socially vulnerable populations tend to be more 

vulnerable to wildfire than less socially vulnerable populations because they often 

have fewer resources to invest in wildfire mitigation actions, have lower participation rates in wildfire-mitigation assistance programs, and have less access to 

wildfire response resources when a fire ignites. These findings suggest that:

• It is important for hazardous fuels reduction treatments to be proportionately distributed in places where low-income and minority populations live 

near federal forests; such treatments might target these locales because of 

higher social vulnerability to wildfire. 

• Directing outreach and financial and technical assistance to these populations may help them increase fire-safe practices around their homes for 

greater protection from high-severity fire.

Conclusions

Federal forest managers requested information about trends in the size of environmental justice populations in the NWFP area, and the implications of these trends 

for federal forest management. Environmental justice populations in the Plan area 

are growing. Census data reflect the changing demographics of the region, and 

research from within and outside the Plan area provides insight into how some 

members of low-income and minority populations interact with federal forests. 

When thinking about these relationships, it is important to avoid overgeneralizing 

and creating stereotypes about the values, uses, preferences, and behaviors of specific groups. Inevitably, there will be variation within groups, some of it influenced 

by gender, age, length of time in the United States, and other factors. The research 
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synthesized here can be used to increase awareness and flag potentially relevant 

topics for agency staff to examine more closely at the local level. 

Emergent issues for which research is ongoing include the presence of temporary residents—including homeless populations—on national forests, many 

of whom are likely low income; and connections between wildfire management 

and environmental justice. Important information gaps remain, however. There 

is virtually no research or monitoring data that concern the specific impacts of 

the NWFP on low-income or minority populations apart from American Indian 

tribes. Also sparse is literature regarding the broader impacts of forest management activities on environmental justice populations. Apart from recreation, little 

information is available about noneconomic relationships between environmental 

justice populations and federal forests. Research to better understand the variation within minority groups regarding their interactions with federal forests in 

particular places is also lacking, for example, how low-income or minority status 

intersects with subgroup characteristics (i.e., gender, age, religion) to influence 

forest values, uses, and management impacts. Growth in environmental justice 

populations throughout the NWFP area calls for reassessing earlier findings, 

and ongoing research into how these populations relate to federal forests and are 

affected by federal forest management.

Further Reading

Charnley, S.; Jaworski, D.; Huber-Stearns, H.; White, E.; Grinspoon, E.; 

McLain, R.J.; Cerveny, L. 2018. Environmental justice, low-income and 

minority populations, and forest management in the Northwest Forest Plan area. 

In: Spies, T.A.; Stine, P.A.; Gravenmier, R.; Long, J.W.; Reilly, M.J., tech. coords. 

Synthesis of science to inform land management within the Northwest Forest 

Plan area. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-966. Portland, OR: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 851–917. 

Chapter 10. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56332.

Chavez, D.J.; Winter, P.L.; Absher, J.D., eds. 2008. Recreation visitor research: 

studies of diversity. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-210. Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station. 216 p. 

Grinspoon, E.; Schaefers, J.; Periman, R.; Smalls, J.; Manning, C.; Porto, T.L. 

2014. Striving for inclusion: addressing environmental justice for Forest Service 

NEPA. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 20 p.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

McLain, R.J.; Lynch, K. 2010. Managing floral greens in a globalized economy: 

resource tenure, labour relations, and immigration policy in the Pacific 

Northwest, USA. In: Laird, S.A.; McLain, R.J.; Wynberg, R.P., eds. Wild 

product governance: finding policies that work for non-timber forest products. 

Washington, DC: Earthscan: 265–286.

Wilmsen, C.; Bush, D.; Barton-Antonio, D. 2015. Working in the shadows: 

safety and health in forestry services in southern Oregon. Journal of Forestry. 

113: 315–324.
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Roasting salmon over an open fire. 

Photo by Jon Ivy Coquille Indian Tribe.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Jonathan Long, Frank K. Lake, Kathy Lynn, and Carson Viles1

Main Points

• Implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP, or Plan) has emphasized consultation and cooperation with tribes, but when written, the Plan 

itself did not consider tribal management practices or explicitly seek to promote many resources valued by tribes. 

• Many valued tribal resources are found in early-seral forests, meadows, 

and open woodlands. Fire suppression and reductions in traditional, active 

management practices have caused resource quality and quantity to decline, 

with negative effects on tribal well-being.

• Opportunities exist for working with tribes to restore key resources, and such 

strategies are consistent with emerging directions in forest management. 

Introduction

The ecosystems within the NWFP area support an array of resources used by tribes 

for food, medicine, and materials. These resources also support sacred sites, tribal 

sense of place, and cultural identity. Implementation of the NWFP has emphasized 

the importance of consulting and cooperating with tribes. The 10-, 15-, and 20-year 

NWFP monitoring reports specifically considered the effectiveness of consultation with tribes. The monitoring reports also devoted increasing attention to tribal 

access to forest resources and places that are important for cultural, subsistence, 

or economic reasons, particularly those protected by treaty rights held by federally 

recognized tribes. However, the Plan did not consider proactive efforts to foster 

resources valued by tribes beyond old forests and salmonids. In commissioning 

the NWFP science synthesis, Forest Service resource managers asked us if active 

management would be needed to provide the cultural resources valued by tribes, 

including first foods such as salmon, elk, huckleberries, and camas. We summarize 

key findings and management considerations from chapter 11 below.

1

Jonathan Long is an ecologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station, 1731 Research Park Drive, Davis, CA 95618; Frank K. Lake 

is an ecologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research 

Station, 3644 Avtech Parkway, Redding, CA 96002; Kathy Lynn is a faculty researcher 

and Carson Viles is a research assistant, University of Oregon, Environmental Studies 

Program, 5223 University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97405.

Chapter 11: Tribal Ecocultural Resources 

and Engagement
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Key Findings

Tribes remain generally concerned about the availability and condition of ecocultural resources and places of special interest on federal lands. Both social and 

biophysical factors have limited tribes from obtaining desired resources from 

public lands. The issue extends beyond access or permission to harvest resources 

to whether resources are available in sufficient quality and quantity for harvest. 

Consequently, tribes and researchers have focused on the productivity of ecosystems, particularly for resources such as nut-producing trees, understory plants for 

food and fiber, game animals such as elk and deer, and fish, especially salmonids 

and other anadromous species such as sturgeon, candlefish, and lamprey (fig. 11-1). 

Tribes have long emphasized that they actively used fire and other practices to 

maintain the productivity of many of these resources. 

Figure 11-1—Lamprey, candlefish, and night smelt harvested by Yurok Tribe members on a basket tray made from sandbar willow 

(Salix exigua), March 2014.

Frank K. Lake
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Disruption of Traditional Tribal Practices Negatively Affects 

Tribal Well-Being

Historical tribal practices included plant harvesting, tilling, weeding, moving plant 

propagules, and burning. The disruption of those traditional practices has perpetuated a cycle of degradation of valued resources and tribal well-being that started 

with displacement of tribes from their ancestral lands: 

1. Confinement to reservations followed by land allotment and termination has 

limited tribes’ ability to practice land-tending traditions such as burning.

2. Resource quality and quantity have declined, with many areas no longer 

suitable for harvesting desired foods, basketry materials, medicines, and 

other cultural resources.

3. Community members have experienced poor health and well-being, 

particularly because food and economic insecurities are associated with 

reductions of traditional resources and practices.

4. Intergenerational transmission of traditional ecological knowledge has been 

impeded as elders have fewer opportunities to practice the traditions and 

teach them to youth, as well as reduced incentive to do so. 

5. Lands have become feral and inhospitable “wilderness” from a tribal 

perspective.

6. People’s understanding of reference conditions has become distorted as 

experience with past conditions is replaced by exposure to present degraded 

conditions.

These combined effects deter tribal members from maintaining or reestablishing traditional practices. Other stressors, including climate change, invasive species, species extirpations, and changes in land use exacerbate this cycle by reducing 

the availability of ecocultural resources and constraining access by tribal members. 

Active Management to Restore Fire While Conserving 

Large Trees Is Needed for a Diverse, Reliable Supply of 

Ecocultural Resources

Active management, including use of fire and complementary thinning and fuel 

reduction treatments, can help restore a variety of communities that sustain tribal 

ecocultural resources. The NWFP did not emphasize the ecological importance 

of fire and the influence of American Indians prior to Euro-American colonization. Many ecosystems within the Plan area, from inland areas characterized by 

frequent fire to coastal areas characterized by infrequent fire regimes, were influenced by American Indian use of fire. Although the historical breadth and depth 
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of fire use by American Indians has been subject to debate, as have the historical 

frequency and extent of fire in general, research has concluded that the effects of 

indigenous burning would have been particularly pronounced around historical 

tribal settlements, trade and travel routes, and harvesting and hunting areas. As 

tribes were displaced, the frequency of fire in many of these places throughout 

the region was reduced.

Such influence was particularly important in ecological transition areas, or 

“ecotones,” between forests, woodlands, grasslands, and wetlands. Many species 

of special importance to tribes are associated with early-successional communities, forest openings, and more persistent nonforest communities such as meadows 

and wetlands that support vibrant small woody and herbaceous plant communities. 

These were often favored harvesting sites. Highly desired resources that depend 

on frequent disturbances include trees and shrubs that produce edible nuts and 

fruits, geophytes (such as camas) that produce edible roots, fungi that produce 

edible mushrooms, and forbs and grasses that produce nutritious seeds and forage 

for deer and elk. In addition to resources found in early-seral or open environments, valued resources come from woodlands and forests dominated by old trees 

that are better able to survive fire than smaller trees. Exclusion of fire has led to 

forest encroachment and densification in woodlands, meadows, riparian areas, 

prairies, and other vegetation communities. 

Although restoration of nonforest vegetative communities is important, tribes 

also place special value on large, old trees of both hardwood species and conifers. 

Large western redcedar trees, for example, are important for carving canoes and 

totem poles. Some wildlife species of special tribal value, including marten and 

pileated woodpecker, are associated with older forests, large decadent or dead trees, 

and dense tree canopies.

Actively restoring and maintaining historical fire regimes through forest 

thinning and greater intentional use of fire would reduce the risk of uncharacteristically severe wildfires and improve the productivity and availability of many tribal 

ecocultural resources. Such treatments are particularly important to restore systems 

altered by historical timber harvest, fire suppression, and novel influences such as 

sudden oak death. Promoting a diversity of fire effects across large landscape areas 

is an important strategy to help ensure long-term sustainability and availability of 

ecocultural resources for tribes. This availability, in turn, supports important socioeconomic benefits such as food security and work opportunities. Tribes maintain 

that active management could expand the pool of resources to benefit human beings 

and a multitude of wildlife species.
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Tribes have experienced diminished well-being as species of special importance 

have been extirpated. Consequently, reintroduction of ecocultural keystone species, 

in conjunction with restoration of their habitat, is also important for sustaining 

tribal material uses, cultural values, biological diversity, and ecological processes.

Ecocultural resources have also declined as dams, diversions, roads, and other 

developments have altered flood regimes and created barriers to fish passage. Strategies for restoring aquatic systems have emphasized the importance of restoring 

fire and flooding regimes, as well as remediating forest road systems that impede 

natural passage of organisms, wood, water, and sediment. However, roads are also 

important for maintaining tribal access to resources and intergenerational transmission of knowledge. 

A particularly important research need is for collaborative, integrative studies 

that evaluate benefits to tribes from active, restorative management or the lack 

of such treatments, both in terms of the ecological response and socioeconomic 

benefits that result from those responses. Some studies of sensitive wildlife species 

acknowledge that restoration may benefit special status wildlife species, many of 

which are predators, by enhancing populations of prey. However, conservation 

under the NWFP has often followed a more precautionary approach and avoided 

intervening in the habitats of declining species and designated late-successional and 

riparian reserves.

In general, strategies to promote tribal ecocultural resources are consistent with 

emerging directions in forest management, including reestablishing more natural 

disturbance regimes and landscape heterogeneity using adaptive management and 

restoration forestry. Such strategies can be integrated with measures to protect 

large, old trees, cultural sites, and other ecocultural resources that are potentially 

sensitive to treatments and vulnerable to severe disturbances.

Access to Valued Resources

Considerable attention has been given to the legal and bureaucratic dimensions 

of access, such as fees and barriers to obtaining resources on public lands. For 

example, NWFP monitoring reports and other publications have noted obstacles 

to harvesting large cedar logs on public lands, as well as cultivation and harvest of 

beargrass (fig. 11-2), willows, and other plants in reserve areas. Revisions to agency 

policies that recognize tribal rights to gather forest products for traditional and 

cultural purposes without fees have ameliorated some of these conflicts. 

Competition for resources with non-Indians remains a longstanding issue, with 

specific examples including commercial harvesting of huckleberries, matsutake 

mushrooms, floral greens, and other forest products. Research suggests that for 
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Figure 11-2—LaVerne Glaze holding harvested beargrass, July 2005. Some American Indians use 

beargrass for weaving baskets and other traditional purposes. 

Frank K. Lake

some of these resources, non-Indian commercial harvesters may have greater 

incentives to overharvest than tribal members who follow traditional practices. 

Establishment of gathering areas on public lands that are reserved for tribal use (fig. 

11-3) appears to have been an effective solution to this challenge, although managing roads and regulating access by non-Indian recreational users will continue to 

require site-specific considerations.
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Figure 11-3—Handshake Agreement sign in Indian Heaven Wilderness, Gifford Pinchot National Forest, Washington. This sign commemorates a historic example of federal-tribal collaboration dating back to 1932, when the Forest Service agreed to reserve an area of 

huckleberry patches on the national forest for exclusive gathering by the Yakama Nation. 

Leslie Seaton

Strategies for Engaging Tribes in Forest Planning and 

Management

Tribes are concerned not only with ensuring that lands are actively tended, but 

also that they have opportunities to help shape and conduct those efforts directly. 

Research has highlighted the social importance of American Indians being able to 

practice and maintain stewardship traditions on ancestral lands, rather than deferring such management to nontribal employees or contractors. Tribal engagement, 

including formal consultation and longer term partnerships, is important for achieving land management objectives in the 2012 forest planning rule, upholding tribal 

rights and federal responsibilities, and recognizing the value of tribal ecocultural 

resources. Collaborative engagement with tribes in planning, researching, implementing, and monitoring treatments can foster adaptive capacity of both tribes and 

partnering institutions.
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Management Considerations

• Restoring diverse seral and grassland communities across the landscape 

as well as natural disturbance processes, hydrological connectivity, and 

species that have been extirpated is important for sustaining ecocultural 

resources and associated tribal well-being.

• Active management that is informed by traditional ecological knowledge 

can promote the quantity and quality of many important cultural resources 

while supporting other ecological goals, including conservation of large 

trees. Such management is a greater need in drier ecosystems that evolved 

with more frequent fire, but it is also important for culturally important 

areas within wetter ecosystem types.

• Promoting the quality, abundance, and availability of ecocultural resources 

is important to tribes beyond ensuring viability of species and access to 

resources. 

• Understanding specific reasons for decline in resource use is important when 

developing strategies to benefit tribal communities. A lack of current harvesting activity does not necessarily indicate a lack of interest or demand. 

• Many tribes desire opportunities to maintain traditional tending practices, 

including burning (fig. 11-4), as a means of sustaining and passing down 

traditional knowledge.

Figure 11-4—Klamath River Training Exchange prescribed burn on a privately owned area for 

experimental research and tribal gathering of tanoak nuts and other forest products near Orleans, 

California, October 2015. 

Frank K. Lake
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

• Partnerships with tribes can build upon the foundations in the Tribal Forest 

Protection Act and other laws and policies that provide for explicit tribal 

engagement and cooperative management.

• Designation of special tribal stewardship areas can be a useful strategy to 

formalize cooperative management over particular areas of special importance to tribes and to achieve social and ecological objectives of both tribes 

and federal land management agencies.

• Native knowledge can provide insight about the effects and tradeoffs associated with management actions, and the lack of active management, on 

important ecological and sociocultural dynamics.

Conclusions

Scientific publications have recognized the important influence American Indians 

have had on ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest. Research has also increasingly 

considered the dependence of tribal communities on well-functioning and diverse 

forest and nonforest ecosystems in the region. Forest management plans can support 

tribal values by integrating findings from biophysical and social sciences regarding 

historical range of variation and influence of native peoples, along with priorities 

and traditional ecological knowledge from tribes. This knowledge may be documented in publications or passed down as oral traditions. 

Active forest management offers compelling opportunities for reconciling 

ecological and social concerns. Several collaborative projects in the region highlight 

how tribes have guided active management within stewardship areas on public 

lands to promote ecocultural resources. Intensively managed areas could serve as 

nuclei to support broader landscape restoration by restoring frequent fire regimes, 

heterogeneous plant communities, and groves of large trees. 

The concepts and principles of adaptive management and restoration forestry 

are generally consistent with efforts to promote tribal interests. However, particular 

attention to tribal engagement, including formal consultation as well as broader 

partnerships, will be important to ensure that development and implementation of 

strategies will uphold tribal rights, federal responsibilities, and the critical importance of ancestral lands to tribes.
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Further Reading 

Anderson, M.K. 2005. Tending the wild: Native American knowledge and the 

management of California’s natural resources. Berkeley, CA: University of 

California Press. 555 p.

Halpern, A.A. 2016. Prescribed fire and tanoak (Notholithocarpus densifolius) 

associated cultural plant resources of the Karuk and Yurok peoples of California. 

Berkeley, CA: University of California–Berkeley. 90 p. Ph.D. dissertation. http://

digitalassets.lib.berkeley.edu/etd/ucb/text/Halpern_berkeley_0028E_16177.pdf. 

(21 May 2018).

Long, J.W.; Lake, F.K. 2018. Escaping a socioecological trap through tribal 

stewardship on national forest lands in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Ecology 

and Society. 23(2): art10. https://ecologyandsociety.org/vol23/iss2/art10/. 

(19 July 2018).

Long, J.W.; Lake, F.K.; Lynn, K.; Viles, C. 2018. Tribal ecocultural resources 

and engagement. In: Spies, T.A.; Stine, P.A.; Gravenmier, R.; Long, J.W.; Reilly, 

M.J., tech. coords. Synthesis of science to inform land management within the 

Northwest Forest Plan area. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-966. Portland, OR: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 

851–917. Chapter 11. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56333.
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Field tour with the Lakeview Forest Landscape 

Collaborative in the Fremont-Winema National 

Forest..Photo by Tom Spies, USDA Forest Service.
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Thomas A. Spies, Jonathan W. Long, Peter A. Stine, Susan Charnley, Lee Cerveny, 

Bruce G. Marcot, Gordon H. Reeves, Paul F. Hessburg, Damon B. Lesmeister,

Matthew J. Reilly, Martin G. Raphael, and Raymond J. Davis1

Main Points

• The interconnections between social and ecological systems have become 

clearer since the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP, or Plan) was adopted. Meeting 

ecological restoration goals requires social license to conduct management, 

as well as agency capacity, a skilled local workforce and wood processing 

infrastructure, and markets for restoration products. Meeting goals for timber 

to support local communities, in turn, depends on restoration or management 

for ecological goals. 

• Conserving species is challenging in the face of threats that transcend ownership boundaries and lie beyond the control of federal land managers. This 

reality should temper expectations for federal land management plans but 

could also motivate efforts to engage in cross-boundary conservation.

• Effective management of federal lands within the NWFP area depends on 

recognizing regional variation in ecosystems and human communities. 

Management actions to promote resilience and conserve species are best 

achieved when ecological differences in environment and disturbance regimes 

are taken into account. Community economies in the NWFP area have 

diverged since the Plan was implemented. Efforts to support local communities 

will be most effective when they recognize differences in the economies that 

support those communities.

1 Thomas A. Spies is a senior scientist emeritus, Gordon H. Reeves is a senior scientist, and Damon 

B. Lesmeister is a research wildlife biologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331; Jonathan W. 

Long is an ecologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research 

Station, 1731 Research Park Drive, Davis, CA 95618; Peter A. Stine was director of partnerships 

and collaboration (retired), Pacific Southwest Research Station, 1731 Research Park Drive, Davis, 

CA 95618; Susan Charnley is a research social scientist and Bruce G. Marcot is a research wildlife 

biologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 620 

SW Main Street, Suite 502, Portland, OR 97205; Lee Cerveny is a research social scientist, U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 400 N. 34th Street, 

Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98103; Paul F. Hessburg is a research landscape ecologist, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station, 1133 NW Western Avenue, Wenatchee, WA 98801; Matthew J. Reilly is a postdoctoral researcher, Humboldt State University, Department of Biological Sciences, 1 Harpst Street, 

Arcata, CA 95521; Martin G. Raphael is a senior scientist (retired), U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3625 93rd Avenue SW, Olympia, WA 98512;

Raymond J. Davis is a wildlife biologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific 

Northwest Region, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331.

Chapter 12: Integrating Ecological and Social Science 

to Inform Land Management in the Area of the 

Northwest Forest Plan 
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• The benefits of forests to society extend beyond timber. The ecosystem 

services concept was largely developed after the NWFP was written. The 

2012 planning rule now emphasizes use of the ecosystem service framework to better align agency management with the range of values associated with federal forests. However, applications of this framework are still 

in the early stages, and research-management partnerships are needed to 

make progress.

• All management choices involve some social and ecological tradeoffs 

related to the goals of the NWFP. Management goals are most likely to be 

met when both ecological and social elements are considered and integrated. Science can reveal the tradeoffs, but managers will have to decide 

whether or how to address them. 

Introduction 

The goals of the Northwest Forest Plan for federal forests are imbedded within a 

diverse, dynamic, and complex social-ecological system (fig. 12-1) that has changed 

significantly since the Plan was implemented in 1994. In the past two decades, the 

capacity of the Forest Service and the forest industry to conduct restoration efforts 

across landscapes has declined significantly as budgets for managing resources 

have diminished and mills that could process the products of restoration have 

closed. Public values have shifted from resource production toward resource protection. The Forest Service is increasing emphasis on ecosystem services (in addition 

to multiple uses) as a way to communicate the diverse values of federal forests and 

increase public support for forest stewardship. 

A major change in biodiversity conservation policy occurred for the Forest 

Service in the form of the 2012 planning rule, which shifted conservation emphasis 

toward whole ecosystem approaches and away from population viability of numerous individual species. The new rule recognizes that individual species approaches 

will still be needed for a few species. 

New conservation concerns also have emerged, including a major threat to 

populations of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) by the nonnative barred owl (Strix varia), which has been expanding its range. Fire suppression 

and fire exclusion are leading to two undesirable outcomes: (1) larger patches of 

high-severity fire in dry forest zones where fuels have accumulated, and (2) less 

diverse early-seral (post-wildfire) vegetation in drier parts of moist forest zones. 

Exotic invasive species are increasing in several taxonomic groups across the region 

and affecting native biotic communities and ecosystem processes. Finally, climate 
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change, which is already having some ecological effects, is expected to have a large 

but variable impact on species and ecosystems. 

On the other hand, the NWFP monitoring program indicates that progress is 

being made toward meeting several of the original long-term goals of the Plan. 

It is maintaining vegetation conditions that support northern spotted owls and 

marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus), protecting large blocks of dense 

old-growth forests, providing habitat for aquatic and riparian-associated organisms, 

and reducing the loss of mature and old forests to logging. Other goals have not 

Figure 12-1—The social-ecological system in which the Northwest Forest Plan is imbedded.

Climate

Ecosystem Species

Laws/policies

Economics

Management/use

Social, cultural

values

Social Interactions Ecological

Social Component

Social-Ecological System

Ecological Component

Altered Ecosystems

Ecosystem Services 
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been met, such as providing for a predictable timber harvest to support rural communities, desired levels of road decommissioning, and adaptive management and 

learning through effectiveness and validation monitoring of old-forest species and 

biodiversity. Finally, congressional legislation that provided alternative formulas for 

payments to counties most affected by the NWPF to mitigate the financial impacts 

of reduced timber harvesting were realized in the short to mid term, but their longterm viability remains uncertain. 

The NWFP was founded on a scientific approach that combines research, monitoring, and adaptive management, but it is ultimately a political document. Given 

social and ecological changes that have occurred over the past 24 years, managers 

may want to consider revising their approaches to management in the NWFP region 

to better meet the original goals as well as new goals and challenges. 

Chapter 12 of the NWFP science synthesis addresses cross-cutting questions 

and evolving issues that require multifaceted answers drawn from both ecological and social research. These questions stem from the nexus of the conservation, 

restoration, and socioeconomic strategies of the NWFP, addressing how well they 

met their intended goal, and identifying new issues that have arisen since the Plan 

was established. Here we highlight key findings and management considerations. 

Key Findings 

Social and Ecological Interactions

For much of the 20th century, timber production was the central means by which 

federal forests in the NWFP area contributed to the socioeconomic well-being of 

communities (fig. 12-2). Although timber production remains important today in 

some Plan-area communities, the economies of many communities have shifted 

or diversified over the past two decades. Rural communities are not all alike, the 

NWFP affected communities differently, and the social and economic bases of 

many traditionally forest-dependent communities have changed. Providing for a 

diverse set of community benefits from public lands may be the best way to support 

communities in their efforts to diversify economically and contribute to building 

community resilience to future changes in federal forest management and policy.

The ability to sustain ecosystem services, conserve species, and promote ecosystem resilience to climate change and fire is highly dependent on socioeconomic 

factors. Declines in wood processing infrastructure throughout the Plan area have 

made vegetation management less economical. This has created a financial barrier 

to fully accomplishing forest restoration. With declining agency capacity, it will 

be difficult if not impossible to maximize all these objectives; prioritization will be 

needed. Production of wood from private lands is important for maintaining local 
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wood-processing industries. In many cases, the feasibility of restoration projects 

on federal lands depends on this industry infrastructure to produce and support 

markets for wood products and a skilled workforce to carry out the projects.

Working collaboratively to meet ecological goals—

Collaborative groups may be part of the solution to increasing trust and social 

license for forest management. However, collaborative processes are a relatively 

recent phenomenon and continued learning and adaptive management will be 

needed to determine the best way forward. Efforts to collaborate with neighboring 

landowners in planning and implementing management activities for landscapelevel treatments can help increase forest resilience to climate change, invasive 

species, and wildfire, and help provide desired ecosystem services (e.g., fish habitat) 

in mixed-ownership landscapes. Any strategies to promote resilience to climate 

change and disturbances will need to recognize complex ecological and social 

system dynamics operating across land ownerships. Tensions that arise from competing values can be resolved only through social processes that include transparent 

accountability for all involved. 

Engaging with tribes to promote tribal ecocultural resources, in part to uphold 

the federal trust responsibility, would also likely align with other objectives for 

ecological restoration. 

Figure 12-2—Volume of timber sold and harvested from Forest Service units in the Northwest Forest 

Plan area, 1970s–2002 (Charnley 2006a). 

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Timber harvested and sold (million board feet)

Fiscal year

Cut

Sold

1978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002
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Developing capacity to use managed wildfire as a tool—

Although major disturbances such as large wildfires can be undesirable and costly, 

they can also promote desired conditions and reestablish key ecosystem processes 

and species across more land than can be accomplished through prescribed fire or 

mechanical treatments. Institutional and social systems may need to evolve to take 

advantage of such opportunities; for example, by designing postfire management 

interventions based upon long-term restoration goals as well as more short-term 

considerations such as safety and timber salvage. Institutional capacity to take 

advantage of these opportunities is severely limited by an agencywide decline 

in staffing, a decades-long history of budget cuts in non-wildfire areas, a lack of 

infrastructure for processing of forest products, and monetary resource shifts 

toward fighting wildfires rather than restoring forests. 

Conservation of Species and Ecosystems 

The current outlook for widespread persistence of northern spotted owls is not 

good. It appears unlikely that spotted owls can persist without significant reduction 

in barred owl populations. Without the implementation of the NWFP (e.g., if the 

pace of old-growth logging from the 1970s and 1980s had continued for 23 years), 

spotted owl populations would likely have already become moribund. Forests 

capable of supporting interconnected populations of spotted owls have increased 

or stayed relatively stable at the Plan scale. However, the rapid pace of change in 

climate and fire regimes suggests that recent trends may not continue, especially in 

dry, fire-frequent forests. 

Under the original NWFP goals, an emphasis on multilayered old-growth forest 

conservation was critical, given its importance to the viability of populations of 

spotted owls. However, the 2012 planning rule broadens and changes the focus on 

conservation; it emphasizes ecological integrity and resilience (ecosystem goals that 

were not part of the NWFP goals), and deemphasizing species-viability approaches. 

This means that conserving biodiversity in this region is more than about conserving dense old-growth forests for spotted owls and other species—other seral stages 

also are valuable, including open, fire-dependent old growth; diverse early- and 

mid-successional post-wildfire vegetation; wetlands; fire-dependent oak-dominated 

forest patches and woodlands; and shrublands and grasslands. 

The contribution of federal lands to the conservation and recovery of fish, 

northern spotted owls, and marbled murrelet populations listed under the Endangered Species Act continues to be essential, but it is likely insufficient to reach the 

comprehensive goals of the NWFP, or the newer goals of the 2012 planning rule. 
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Collaborative efforts combined with incentives could help to increase conservation on nonfederal lands, but further research is needed to evaluate the impact of 

particular approaches within the NWFP context. 

With congressional reserves, late-successional reserves (LSRs), riparian 

reserves, and administratively withdrawn areas occupying more than 80 percent 

of the Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management land base in the Plan area, 

and little cutting of old growth occurring, rates of additional fragmentation of older 

forests from management activities on federal lands will be very low. Landscapelevel change will be dominated by succession in plantation and mid-seral forests, 

and an increasing area of disturbance from wildfire. Concerns over fragmentation 

of old-growth forests from logging have shifted toward concerns about climate 

change effects and access of species to climate refugia. However, the effects of 

past fragmentation on the biota likely have not disappeared—there may be lags in 

the response of some species to past landscape changes. The widespread effects 

of roads on species and ecosystem processes also remain a conservation concern, 

especially those that constrain full floodplain functioning or directly contribute 

high sediment loads to streams. The small amount of logging in most nonreserved 

northern spotted owl habitat and in mature and old-growth forests over the past 15 

years of NWFP implementation does not reflect the original provisions of the Plan 

as written, but it does mean that the major historical threat to biodiversity (commercial logging of old-growth forests) has been greatly reduced on federal lands. This 

outcome may have been a result of the Survey and Manage program, which was 

administratively burdensome, and changes in the social acceptability of cutting old 

growth in the matrix. 

Drier areas within the moist forest zone had historically more frequent and 

more mixed-severity fire than was previously appreciated. This means that fire 

suppression in some moist-zone forests has likely reduced the amount of structurally diverse early-seral vegetation that would have developed over the past several 

decades relative to the historical disturbance regime under a warming climate. 

Fire suppression has also likely reduced the diversity of older forest structural and 

compositional conditions and landscape diversity of seral stages. 

A major challenge to management for resilience to fire and climate change 

exists in historically frequent-fire landscapes of northern California, southern 

Oregon, and the eastern Cascade Range of Oregon and Washington. Although fires 

in these areas have been increasing in recent years, they are still much less frequent 

than historically. However, some recent fires have created larger patches of highseverity fire compared to the historical regime, likely as a result of increased fuel 
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accumulation and continuity. Fire exclusion has increased the area of dense forests 

and nesting habitat for northern spotted owls, compared to their historical amounts. 

Landscapes including large LSRs, in which little or no restoration or management 

to restore fire and successional dynamics occurs, likely will not provide for resilient 

forest ecosystems in the face of climate change and increasing fire. 

Scientists are becoming more aware that selective active management within 

reserves is needed to conserve biodiversity in fire-frequent landscapes, where 

human activities have excluded fire and have decreased resilience of forests to fire, 

insects, disease, and drought. Invasive species such as the barred owl and the sudden oak death pathogen are also motivators for interventions within reserves. 

Tradeoffs Associated With Management

All management choices involve some social and ecological tradeoffs related to 

the goals of the NWFP. For example: 

• Variable-density thinning can accelerate the development of large live trees 

and habitat diversity that will benefit northern spotted owls and other species in the future, and produce wood products for the market. However, 

within the range of the murrelet, these actions may have a short-term negative impact on habitat quality by creating diverse understory species that 

benefit murrelet nest predators. These thinning treatments also can reduce 

amounts of dead wood that provide habitat to other species. 

• Thinning and restoring fire to fire-dependent forests will increase habitat 

for species that use more open older forests and increase forest resilience to 

fire and drought while creating restoration jobs and reducing wildfire risk 

in the wildland-urban interface, but these actions can reduce habitat quality 

for species that use dense older forests. 

• Variable-density thinning in uniform plantations in riparian zones can 

restore vegetation heterogeneity that was characteristic of these zones under 

historical disturbance regimes and can promote growth of very large conifers; however, it can temporarily reduce shading of streams and production 

of dead wood relative to no management. 

• Maintaining road systems to conduct landscape-scale restoration and support recreation will negatively affect some species and ecosystem processes. 

Many of the potential negative impacts can be ameliorated through landscape-scale planning and using best practices for decisionmaking. 
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In the long run, thinning in plantations and young forests less than 80 years old 

in LSRs to promote old-growth forest development will not sustain wood production for local communities. There is no new science that specifically indicates that 

timber management using retention silviculture in forests more than 80 years old 

in the matrix is inconsistent with the original goals of the NWFP. However, this 

source of timber may not be available if managers need to protect additional older 

forest in the matrix to mitigate threats to the northern spotted owl from the barred 

owl or avoid logging (even with alternative silviculture) of large, old trees to address 

social concerns. Given these possibilities, the most viable approach to long-term 

timber production and meeting some early-successional biodiversity goals might 

be an approach that creates openings in some of the plantations in the matrix. This 

strategy would be most effective in more productive moist forests where older 

plantations contain commercially valuable trees. 

Monitoring and Adaptive Management 

Although much has been learned in 24 years, large uncertainties remain in terms of 

scientific knowledge and drivers of social and ecological systems, many of which 

remain outside the control of federal land managers. Risk management is a widely 

recognized process for dealing with threats to goals, and managers may want to 

consider formalizing risk management in forest planning. Development, evaluation, 

and testing of new, highly integrated conservation strategies is encouraged to deal 

with uncertainties and knowledge gaps related to fire, climate change, invasive 

species, tradeoffs between ecosystem and species goals, and tradeoffs between 

ecological and social components. These forest and social systems will undoubtedly 

change in coming decades in ways that we have not anticipated. Continuation of 

research, monitoring, public engagement, and adaptive management can facilitate 

adaptation of forest plans and management to future change. 

Management Considerations 

The Socioeconomic System Has Changed Since the 1990s

Timber harvesting is no longer the only focal federal management concern from a 

socioeconomic standpoint. Wildfire management has risen to become an important 

concern for communities, especially as the number of people living near and recreating in forests has increased. Recreation has also become a significant driver or 

economic activity in many forest communities and will likely increase in the future. 

The effects of recreation on biodiversity are poorly studied. 
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The supply of timber harvested from federal forests has drastically declined and 

has not reached the level that was expected under the Plan. Efforts to use alternative management strategies have general public support (in contrast to lack of 

support for clearcutting), and expanded use of restoration treatments (e.g., ecological forestry) could increase the volume of timber produced over recent levels and 

contribute to local wood markets. Agencies could consider structuring restoration 

contracts in ways that make them more accessible to local communities. 

Rural communities are not all alike and approaches to garnering ecosystem 

services (including timber) and adaptation to wildfire may want to consider tailoring management plans and communication efforts to the community type. Major 

community types include (1) formal suburban, (2) high amenity/high resource, 

(3) rural lifestyle, and (4) working landscape/resource dependent. 

The forests of the NWFP area provide many ecosystems services in addition to wood. Carbon sequestration, nontimber forest products, water supply, and 

recreation are among some of the most valuable of these services (fig. 12-3). Greater 

consideration of ecosystem services as a framing element of Forest Service plans 

and management may be a way to focus on forest values that are in sync with the 

current and changing society. Ecosystem service frameworks on federal lands may 

also promote more public support for agency programs, though that remains an 

untested hypothesis. 

Places and the meanings that society attributes to them have real implications 

for forest management. Managers can take advantage of the positive power of place 

and cultural ecosystem services to engage with the public in forest stewardship 

projects. 

Environmental justice populations are growing, and Hispanic and Latino workers are an increasing part of the forestry workforce. Agencies can affect working 

conditions for these populations through changes in contract markets and oversight. 

The quality of a resource management decision is strongly dependent on the 

quality of processes that lead to it. Best practice guidelines for these processes (e.g., 

collaboration) include philosophy of empowerment, equity, inclusiveness, engaging 

stakeholders early, open communication, and iterative or frequent engagement. Collaborative groups can be part of the solution for increasing trust and social license 

for management.

Nongovernmental organizations and other agencies may help managers meet 

their social and ecological goals. Engagement with tribes to promote tribal ecocultural resources, in part as a means of upholding the federal trust responsibility, 

would likely also align with other objectives for ecological restoration, while also 

providing additional tools and resources for accomplishing those objectives. 
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Synthesis of Science to Inform Land Management Within the Northwest Forest Plan Area: Executive Summary

Figure 12-3—Contributions of forest service lands to streamflow, an important ecosystem service, in the Northwest Forest Plan area.
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Balancing Whole Ecosystem Goals With Goals Associated 

With Dense Older Forests

Actions can be taken to move these ecosystems, forests, landscapes and populations 

of species toward more desirable conditions that are better aligned with current 

policies, climates, and social values. The challenge will be to determine how to 

prioritize restoration and address ecological and socioeconomic tradeoffs. 

Ecological history can be a valuable guide for restoration, but land managers, 

in reality, cannot restore ecosystems to any particular historical period or condition. 

However, they can learn from the historical dynamics and forest patterns to develop 

bet-hedging strategies against large wildfires, invasive species, and climate warming. Ecological and social history demonstrates that change is inherent in these 

forests, and we are in a period of rapid change with uncertain outcomes. 

The 2012 planning rule sets a new context and focus for ecosystem management under the NWFP: ecological integrity based on maintaining and restoring disturbance and other ecological processes and the conditions that support them. This 

focus is broader than the coarse-filter approach of the NWFP, which emphasized 

one successional stage: dense, multilayered old growth. This means that managers 

and society will need to decide how to balance whole ecosystem goals and goals 

associated with dense older forests and the species that use them for habitat. The 

compatibility of these different goals will vary with spatial and temporal scale and 

ecological region. 

Several features of the NWFP provide a good starting place for addressing 

conservation in an era of climate change and invasive species: 

1. A large extent of ecological reserves. 

2. Regional connectivity of older forest conditions across all land allocations 

and elevational gradients.

3. Recognition of the need for restoration and active management. 

However, the standards and guidelines are not well suited for restoring fire as 

an ecological process that could improve resilience of forests to climate change, and 

we lack knowledge of how the current Plan relates to climate refugia for at-risk species. Managers may want to consider reassessing the Plan under different climate 

change scenarios and making changes that improve the outlook for meeting conservation and socioeconomic goals. 
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Forest Management Varies Regionally 

Moist forests—

The goals, standards, and guidelines for moist forest LSRs with infrequent fire 

appear to provide a relatively good match for maintaining and restoring ecological 

integrity and resilience as defined under the new planning rule, especially in the 

face of climate change and invasive species. Focusing restoration (such as variabledensity thinning) in LSRs with moist forest plantations makes sense from a conservation perspective, and can provide jobs and economic returns. However, there will 

be tradeoffs with some ecological goals that could require mitigation efforts. For 

example, snags and down wood may need to be created to produce desired amounts 

of dead wood. 

Fire suppression has affected vegetation in moist forests, especially in the drier 

part of the zone where historical fires were more frequent, mixed-severity effects 

were more common, and seral stage patchworks were more varied. Some level of 

fire suppression will always be needed in these forests. However, restoring fire 

or using fire surrogates (e.g., variable-density thinning) are important strategies 

for managers to consider to promote early-successional forests and diversity in 

plantations and forests more than 80 years old in the matrix. Managing for diverse 

early-seral stages would require developing landscape-scale prescriptions to ensure 

that old-growth goals were not compromised. 

Given the social pressure to avoid logging older trees, producing wood from 

existing plantations in matrix lands may be a win-win opportunity for promoting 

biodiversity associated with early-seral ecosystems and providing economic returns 

to support local communities. 

Dry forests—

The goals, standards, and guidelines for LSRs in dry forests that prioritize conservation of existing dense older forests appear to be inconsistent with management 

for ecological integrity and resilience to climate change and fire, as defined under 

the new planning rule. Dense late-successional and older forests would have been 

relatively uncommon in most dry forests, and their current higher abundance is 

largely a result of fire exclusion. 

Management actions that promote resilience in fire-prone forest landscapes 

both within and outside of LSRs include promoting the growth of large, fireresistant trees through thinning; reducing the vertical and horizontal continuity 

and volume of forest fuels (fig. 12-4), restoring the patchwork of open- and closed-
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canopy forests; and tailoring these conditions to topography. Active management, 

including restoring fire processes, can also benefit many tribal values. Landscapelevel strategies such as working with native diseases and insects to promote 

heterogeneity and considering the needs of focal species are needed to meet diverse 

ecological and social goals for these dynamic landscapes in the face of increasing 

wildfire and drought. 

The Challenges of Conserving Individual Species 

Northern spotted owl—

Continued success at conservation of northern spotted owls under the NWFP 

rests on understanding how to minimize the impacts of barred owls and on how 

to manage dry- and moist-zone forests in ways that meet overlapping species and 

ecosystems goals. 

Marbled murrelet—

The current design of the NWFP appears to be valid for recovery of populations of 

marbled murrelets. However, threats from nest predation by jays and crows, conditions in the marine environment, and climate change introduce uncertainties into 

expectations for habitat and population trends. 

Other species in older forests—

Information gleaned from surveys conducted during the early phase of the NWFP 

enabled the removal of many species from Survey and Manage program lists. Given 

the lack of surveying and monitoring of other species, it is now difficult to address 

Figure 12-4—Thinning to restore forest resilience to wildland fire. 

Susan Charnley
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the conservation status of those species that remain on the lists. Decline in harvest 

of old growth is expected to lower risk to these remaining species. Knowledge 

about species associated with early-seral vegetation and fire-dependent communities is not well developed. 

Importance of Restoration in Aquatic and Riparian Ecosystems

The Aquatic Conservation Strategy has contributed to improvements in riparian and stream ecosystems. However, contributions from streams and forests on 

nonfederal lands are still important to achieving NWFP conservation goals, especially under climate change, which may shift species distributions. Transboundary 

collaborative groups can help restore watersheds and fire regimes, especially when 

supported by innovative arrangements to share funding, resources, information, or 

liability. 

Management in riparian reserves can be justified to increase compositional and 

structural variability and diversity of successional pathways in areas where uniform 

conifer plantations dominate riparian areas. Creating snags and felling trees with root 

wads can mitigate undesirable effects of management on dead wood. Justification for 

using the second site-potential tree-height to set the width of riparian reserves is not 

strongly supported for microclimate functions, but other functions (e.g., landscape 

connectivity) could be compromised if reserve boundaries were reduced. 

Under current goals, a restoration strategy will need to ameliorate damage from 

past human actions to restore degraded systems or at least increase their resilience 

to climate change and fire. Areas ripe for consideration include culverts that are 

likely to fail in priority watershed areas, some dams and diversion used for irrigation water withdrawal, and identifying areas that would benefit from intensive 

thinning and use of fire. 

Rethinking Reserves

The science is clear that reserves are a critical component of conservation. The 

science also suggests that active management may be needed and that reserve 

design should periodically be reevaluated and revised to address new goals or 

threats. Changes could include revising standards and guidelines, expanding 

reserves, increasing connectivity of reserves, shifting locations of small reserves, or 

using dynamic landscape approaches based on disturbance ecology to guide management. Ideally, meeting ecosystem goals for reserves would require reserve areas 

that are large enough to support fire and other key natural disturbance processes. 

Using disturbance-based management approaches to conservation (as opposed 

to focusing on a single seral stage or species) is likely to require a robust social 

component to increase transparency, public understanding, and trust in managers. 
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Conclusions

The NWFP is a science-based plan to conserve terrestrial and aquatic species (especially the northern spotted owl) and ecosystems associated with older dense conifer 

forests, and to produce a sustainable supply of timber. The Plan has conserved 

old forests and their associated species but has not produced the levels of timber 

that were expected. The policy, social, and ecological context for the NWFP has 

changed since the Plan was implemented nearly 25 years ago. A significant change 

occurred with the 2012 planning rule, which shifted the planning and management 

emphasis toward ecosystem approaches (e.g., ecological integrity) and away from 

focusing on the viability of many single species (with exceptions for a few species 

that are not well suited to ecosystem approaches). 

New conservation concerns have also arisen, including a major threat to northern spotted owl populations from expanding populations of the nonnative barred 

owl, effects of fire suppression on forest succession and fire behavior in dry forests, 

and lack of development of diverse, early-seral vegetation in moist forests. Invasive 

species and climate change are also now recognized as significant threats to conservation of native ecosystems and species. 

The connections between social and ecological systems have also become 

clearer. For example, declining agency budgets, lack of markets for restoration 

products, and mill closures reduce capacity to meet ecological restoration goals. 

The 2012 planning rule now emphasizes use of an ecosystem service framework 

to better align agency management with the range of values associated with 

federal forests. Rural communities are not all alike; many with economies formerly based on federal timber have shifted to amenity-based economies based 

on recreation on federal lands. For those economies that still depend on federal 

timber, restoration management, (e.g., ecological forestry) can contribute to local 

and regional timber supply but will not fully replace the federal timber that was 

produced prior to the NWFP. 

Active management is important to meeting ecological and socioeconomic 

goals, but social license for active management can be difficult to find. Collaboration efforts can be an important tool for increasing trust in managers and 

support for restoration. However, collaboration is not a panacea for increasing 

rates of restoration, and the effects of collaboration on landscape outcomes are 

not well understood. 

The NWFP was intended to be adaptive and responsive to new ecological and 

social knowledge and issues, but formal adaptive management efforts were not 

sustained. Despite this shortcoming, much has been learned through research, 

monitoring, and experience in implementation of the Plan. Given the policy, social, 
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and ecological changes that have occurred, managers may want to consider 

revising the Plan to address several issues, including: 

1. Increased threat to the northern spotted owl from the barred owl.

2. Decreased resilience of forests to fire and climate change in the dry 

forest region. 

3. Declines in vegetation diversity (e.g., diverse early-seral and other 

vegetation stages) in drier parts of the moist forest region. 

4. Potential for using patch cutting in plantations in the matrix to produce a 

more sustainable flow of timber and create early-successional vegetation. 

5. Declining forestry infrastructure (e.g., workforce and mills) and capacity 

to do active management for ecological and social goals. 

6. Recognizing that human communities in the Plan area are diverse and 

need to be supported in different ways. 

7. Using the variety of ecosystem services from public lands to assist 

communities in their efforts to diversify economically. 

Large uncertainties remain related to the ability of plans and management 

to meet old and new agency goals, including conservation of old-forest species, 

management for ecological integrity, use of ecosystem services, and benefits and 

sustainability of collaboration. Risk management, adaptive management, and 

monitoring are considered the best ways to deal with complex social and ecological 

systems whose futures are difficult to predict, or to affect through policy and land 

management actions alone. 

Further Reading 

Charnley, S. 2006b. The Northwest Forest Plan as a model for broad-scale 

ecosystem management: a social perspective. Conservation Biology. 20(2): 

330–340.

Charnley, S., tech. coord. 2006a. Northwest Forest Plan—the first 10 years 

(1994–2003): socioeconomic monitoring results. Gen Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-649. 

Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station. 5 vol.

Franklin, J.F.; Johnson K.N. 2012. A restoration framework for federal forests 

in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of Forestry. 110(8): 429–439.

Schultz, C.A.; Sisk, T.D.; Noon, B.R.; Nie, M.A. 2013. Wildlife conservation 

planning under the United States Forest Service’s 2012 planning rule. Journal 

of Wildlife Management. 77(3): 428–444. 
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GENERAL TECHNICAL REPORT PNW-GTR-970

Spies, T.A.; Duncan, S.L., eds. 2009. Old growth in a new world: a Pacific 

Northwest icon reexamined. Washington, DC: Island Press. 360 p.

Spies, T.A.; Long, J.W.; Stine, P.; Charnley, S.; Cerveny, L.; Marcot, B.G.; 

Reeves, G.; Hessburg, P.F.; Lesmeister, D.; Reilly, M.J.; Raphael, M.G.; 

Davis, R.J. 2018. Integrating ecological and social science to inform forest plan 

revision in the area of the Northwest Forest Plan. In: Spies, T.A.; Stine, P.A.; 

Gravenmier, R.; Long, J.W.; Reilly, M.J., tech. coords. Synthesis of science to 

inform land management within the Northwest Forest Plan area. Gen. Tech. 

Rep. PNW-GTR-966. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 919–1018. Chapter 12. https://

www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56334.

Acknowledgments

We thank reviewers from U.S. Forest Service Pacific Southwest and Pacific Northwest Regions, who provided valuable input on earlier drafts of these chapters. 

We thank the many anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. We 

also thank members of the public, tribes, and other agencies who provided peerreviewed literature for consideration, attended the public forums, or provided 

review comments for peer reviewers to consider. We thank Cliff Duke with the Ecological Society of America for organizing and coordinating the peer-review process. 

We thank Lisa McKenzie and Ty Montgomery with McKenzie Marketing Group 

for coordinating and summarizing the extensive public input we received and for 

organizing and facilitating the public forums. We also thank Kathryn Ronnenberg 

for assisting with figures and editing for some chapters, as well as Keith Olsen for 

his work on figures. Sean Gordon is thanked for his creation and management of 

the NWFP literature reference database and for formatting all the citations in the 

chapters, which was a very large task. 

We appreciate the heroic efforts of the entire Pacific Northwest Research 

Station communications team to get the science synthesis edited and published to 

meet tight deadlines, especially editors Keith Routman, Carolyn Wilson, and Oscar 

Johnson and visual information specialist Jason Blake. Borys Tkacz and Jane Hayes 

are acknowledged for their diligent policy reviews of all chapters. We want to 

acknowledge the leadership of Paul Anderson and Cindy Miner and Yasmeen Sands 

for their communications coordination. Finally, the team wishes to thank the U.S. 

Forest Service Pacific Southwest and Pacific Northwest Regions and the Pacific 

Northwest and Pacific Southwest Research Stations for significant funding and 

other support for this effort. ■
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