The Electrification 

Futures Study:

Demand-Side Scenarios

Webinar

July 26, 2018

NREL/PR-6A20-72096

nrel.gov/EFS
Electricity is integral to our daily lives—

and increasingly so
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Yet total growth in electricity demand has slowed

While U.S. population, GDP, and end-use services 

have all increased and changed in complex ways 
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• Development of advanced electric technologies has driven adoption in key sectors—

especially in vehicles, but also for businesses and homes

• Local policies and economic incentives support electrification to reduce emissions,

improve air quality, and increase energy security

• Electric utilities are carefully watching to see if electrification has the potential to 

increase sales and revenues

But greater electrification 

may be on the horizon 
So how do we plan for 

widespread electrification?
EFS: The Electrification

Futures Study

nrel.gov/EFS
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NREL-led collaboration, multi-year study

Study sponsored by U.S. DOE-EERE Office of Strategic Programs

• Strategic Energy Analysis

• Transportation and Hydrogen Systems

• Buildings and Thermal Systems

+ Technical Review 

Committee of 19 experts 

from industry and 

consultants, labs, 

government, NGOs

Collaborators from:

• EPRI

• Evolved Energy Research

• Northern Arizona University 

• Oak Ridge National Laboratory

• Lawrence Berkeley National 

Laboratory

• U.S. Department of Energy 
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What electric 

technologies are 

available now, and how 

might they advance?

Technologies

How might 

electrification impact 

electricity demand

and use patterns?

Consumption

How would the 

electricity system need 

to transform to meet 

changes in demand?

System Change

What role might 

demand-side flexibility 

play to support reliable 

operations?

Flexibility

What are the

potential costs, benefits, 

and impacts of widespread 

electrification?

Impacts

Answering crucial

questions about:
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Progress to date

Technology cost and performance (December 2017)

Demand-side adoption scenarios (June 2018)

dsgrid model documentation (coming soon)

Supply-side evolution scenarios (2019)

Impacts of electrification (2019)

Electricity system operations (~2020)

Value of demand-side flexibility (~2020)

Note: Future work scope is tentative
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Scope and definitions

• Electrification: the shift from any non-electric 

source of energy to electricity at the point of 

final consumption – Direct electric technologies only – Not exploring new sources of demand – Isolating electrification from other changes

• Contiguous U.S. energy system, including 

transportation, residential and commercial 

buildings, industry – Sectors cover 74% of primary energy in 2015 

(79% of energy-related CO

2

)

– Excludes air, petroleum refining and mining, 

CHP, outdoor cooking

• Focus on 2050, but transition modeled as well
Technology Cost and 

Performance Data 

Report

(December 2017)

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/70485.pdf
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Foundational technology data

• Three technology advancement 

trajectories (slow, moderate, rapid) 

for buildings and transportation

technologies

• Literature-based summary of 

industrial electrotechnologies

Key Technologies:

• Light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles, buses (multiple range PHEVs and BEVs)

• Air-source heat pumps (including cold-climate ASHPs)

• Heat pump water heaters

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

100

200

300

Batte 

BNEF 2016

Moawad et al. 2016

DOE-VTO

Interpolated

Slow Advancement

Moderate Advancement

Rapid Advancement
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Used in EFS modeling and available for download

Commercial ASHPs Levelized cost of driving (2020 Moderate)

installed cost and efficiency projections
Demand-Side Scenarios 

Report

(June 2018) 

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71500.pdf
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Looking at the demand side

OBJECTIVES

Characterize changes to end-use sectors under futures with increasing levels 

of electrification

Quantify how electrification impacts total electricity demand and

consumption profiles

APPROACH

Expert judgment adoption projections and consumer choice modeling

Bottom-up stock and energy accounting model (EnergyPATHWAYS)

USES

Provides data for evaluating future electricity supply scenarios

Gives researchers and decision-makers data and context to plan for an 

electrified energy system
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Technology adoption and energy transitions 

generally follow characteristic S-curve shape

invention  innovation  niche market  pervasive diffusion  saturation  senescence 
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Method in brief: 

Electrification follows a similar trend

Example for light-duty vehicles

Sales shares determined from a 

combination of expert judgment 

based on current trends & 

consumer choice models (e.g., 

NREL ADOPT model for LDVs)

EnergyPATHWAYS model used for 

stock rollover and detailed 

energy accounting

Principles: technology-rich assessment, bottom-up accounting, cross-sectoral breadth, 

national scope with state-level detail
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Scenarios

• Reference: Least incremental change (~AEO2017)

• Medium: Widespread electrification among low-hanging 

fruit opportunities

• High: Transformational electrification 

– focus of this presentation

• + end-use technology advancement sensitivities

Scenarios designed for assessment of isolated impacts of electrification 

Scenarios are not forecasts or predictions
What we found:

Key takeaways by sector
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Transportation sector

• Significant opportunities exist for electric vehicles, in part because 

electricity currently provides <1% of total transportation energy needs 

• Light-duty plug-in electric cars and trucks drive the greatest overall 

electrification impact in all scenarios

• But electric freight trucks can play a major role, particularly for short-haul 

applications and in more transformational scenarios

• Transit buses are prime candidates for electrification
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Transportation sector

details

• 2050 U.S. transportation fleet (High scenario): • 240 million light-duty plug

-in 

electric vehicles

• 7 million medium- and heavy-duty 

plug-in electric trucks

• 80 thousand battery electric 

transit buses 

• Together these deliver up to 76% of 

miles traveled from electricity in 2050

• 138,000 DCFC stations (447,000 plugs) 

and 10 million non-residential L2 plugs 

for light-duty vehicles
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Key questions in transportation electrification

• Will battery costs continue to decline, and will battery performance

continue to improve? 

• How might consumer preference—range anxiety, acceleration, 

automation—and technology development evolve? 

• Will EVSE infrastructure enable or impede electrification?

• How will ownership models—for vehicles and chargers—evolve and impact 

utility planning? How might utility-controlled charging and vehicle-to-grid 

services affect energy use and adoption?
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Buildings sector

• Electricity already powers a significant share of buildings end-use services

• Electrification opportunities in buildings are most significant for space and 

water heating

• Air-source heat pumps are the key buildings electrification technologies
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Buildings 

sector

details

• Electric equipment provides up to 61% of space heating, 52% of water heating, and 

94% of cooking services in the combined commercial and residential building 

sectors by 2050 (High scenario)

• Would require dramatic change in appliance manufacturing and installations 

(170 million heat pumps in 2050*) 

Commercial space 

heating (High scenario)

*Heat pumps include ASHPs and geothermal heat pumps (sales shares of geothermal 

heat pumps reach 3% by 2050 for commercial space heating in the High scenario)
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Key questions in buildings electrification

• Will advancements in cold-climate heat pumps be sufficient to enable widespread 

adoption?

• Will new technologies facilitate electrification in retrofits and new buildings?

• How might challenges to buildings electrification—cultural acceptance, familiarity, 

landlord-tenant issues—be overcome?

• How might value streams through “smart” and “grid-connected” appliances affect 

consumer adoption?

Non-uniform adoption of ASHPs 

in commercial buildings (2012) 
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Industrial sector

• Industry experienced early electrification and sustained growth, but 

electricity consumption has been flat since ~1990

• Heterogeneity of industries prevents broad generalizations

• Limited industrial data create challenges for assessing electrification 

opportunities

• We focus on industrial process heating
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Industrial sector

details

• Industrial electrification is more muted compared to other sectors • Most-significant growth for 

electrotechnologies with productivity 

benefits: improved product quality, 

higher throughput, reduced scrap and 

labor costs

• In the High scenario, electrotechnologies

provide 63% of curing needs, 32% of 

drying services, 56% of other process 

heating
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Key questions in industrial electrification

• Will productivity benefits from electrotechnologies overcome potentially 

higher costs and other adoption barriers, especially when energy costs 

comprise a small share of total costs?

• Can cost-effective technologies for high-temperature applications be 

developed?

• How might the interplay between long equipment lifetimes and 

manufacturers’ profit-driven decisions impact the technology transition 

rate?

More data and research are needed!
What we found:

Overall power system takeaways
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2050 U.S. electricity 

consumption increases 

• Medium +932 TWh (20%) 

• High +1,782 TWh (38%) 

1.6%/year CAGR (2016-2050)

1.2%/year

0.6%/year

Vehicle electrification dominates incremental 

growth in annual consumption 
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However, electric space heating more significantly 

changes the timing and magnitude of peak demand

Note: Summer = June-August, Fall = September-November, Winter = December-February, Spring = March-May
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Electrification in Medium scenario is loosely consistent with that from 

favorable “economic” conditions; High is closer to transformational scenarios
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Electricity share of final energy doubles from 2016 

to 2050 under the High scenario

Note: Sector definitions and scope differ slightly between Historical and Modeled data
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Electrification leads to 

energy savings

• Greater efficiency of electric 

technologies yields 

reductions in final energy 

consumption by up to 21% 

(High scenario), relative to 

the Reference

• Technology improvements 

could lead to even greater 

savings

• Impacts to primary energy 

will depend on generation 

mix

Note: Does not include all activities, e.g., petroleum refining and extraction excluded
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Estimated fuel use reductions

• Domestic onsite fuel use reductions: 74% gasoline, 35% diesel, 

37% natural gas in 2050 (High scenario)

• Expands opportunities for greater fuel use for power generation, fuel exports
Next steps
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Forthcoming EFS reports

Technology cost and performance (December 2017)

Demand-side adoption scenarios (June 2018)

dsgrid model documentation (coming soon)

Supply-side evolution scenarios (2019)

Impacts of electrification (2019)

Electricity system operations (~2020)

Value of demand-side flexibility (~2020)

Note: Future work scope is tentative
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and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Thank you

trieu.mai@nrel.gov

/efs