NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-153

LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES BASIN

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

Dawn Nelson1

, Heather Elmer2, Rebecca Held1, Danielle Forsythe1, and 

Shauna Casey1

in consultation with

Heather Stirratt3, Dale Bergeron4, Frank Lichtkoppler5, Jesse Schomberg6, 

and Marvourneen Dolor7

1 University of Michigan School of Natural Resources, Cooperative Institute for Limnology and 

Ecosystem Research and NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

2 Old Woman Creek Estuarine Research Reserve

3 NOAA National Ocean Service (Great Lakes Regional Coordinator)

4

 Minnesota Sea Grant

5

 Ohio Sea Grant

6

 Minnesota Sea Grant

7 St. Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation U.S. Department of Transportation

Edited by Dawn Nelson and Rebecca Held

March 2011

UNITED STATES

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Gary Locke

Secretary

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND

ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Jane Lubchenco

Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere

NOAA Administrator
2

NOTICE

Mention of a commercial company or product does not constitute an endorsement 

by the NOAA. Use of information from this publication concerning proprietary 

products or the tests of such products for publicity or advertising purposes is not 

authorized. This is GLERL Contribution No. 1580.

This publication is available as a PDF file and can be downloaded from GLERL’s 

web site: www.glerl.noaa.gov. Hard copies can be requested from GLERL

Information Services, 4840 S. State Rd., Ann Arbor, MI 48108.

pubs.glerl@noaa.gov.

NOAA’s Mission – To understand and predict changes in Earth’s environment 

and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our nation’s 

economic, social, and environmental needs. 

NOAA’s Mission Goals:

• Protect, restore and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through an 

ecosystem approach to management

• Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan 

and respond

• Serve society’s needs for weather and water information

• Support the Nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and 

environmentally sound transportation

• Provide critical support for NOAA’s Mission 

Report prepared for NOAA Great Lakes programs:

Great Lakes Regional Collaboration Team

Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

Great Lakes Sea Grant 

Sustainable Coastal Community Development

Extension Agent Network 

Ohio Coastal Training Program at Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve

Ohio State Nature Preserve (ODNR/Division of Wildlife)
3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................5

2. METHODS ..........................................................................................................................6

3. GOALS AND OBJECTIVES ..............................................................................................6

3.1 Objectives.................................................................................................................6

4. PHASE I: RESEARCH PLANNING..................................................................................7

4.1 Issue Identification ..................................................................................................7

4.2 Initial GLSLCI Community Input: Audience and Issues.........................................8

4.3 GLSLCI Meeting Attendee Input:............................................................................9

4.3.1 Awareness, Adaptation Planning Status, Resource, Tool, and Training Needs........9

4.4 Module Development and Review.........................................................................10

5. OVERVIEW: PRIORITY ADAPTATION NEEDS ..........................................................10

6. INFRASTRUCTURE: PORTS AND REGIONAL PLANNING......................................12

6.1 Climate Impacts......................................................................................................13

6.2 Relevant Roles........................................................................................................13

6.3 Adaptation Needs: Research, Planning, and Policy ...............................................13

6.4 Adaptation Needs: Education and Training ...........................................................13

7. INFRASTRUCTURE: WATER.........................................................................................14

7.1 Climate Impacts......................................................................................................14

7.2 Relevant Roles........................................................................................................14

7.3 Adaptation Needs: Research, Planning, and Policy ...............................................15

7.4 Adaptation Needs: Education and Training ...........................................................15

8. ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT .......................................................................14

8.1 Climate Impacts......................................................................................................16

8.2 Relevant Roles........................................................................................................17

8.3 Adaptation Needs: Research, Planning, and Policy ...............................................17

8.4 Adaptation Needs: Education and Training ...........................................................18

8.5 Specific Issue Areas ...............................................................................................18

8.5.1 Watershed planning and land use ...........................................................................18

8.5.2 Recreation...............................................................................................................20

8.5.3 Fisheries .................................................................................................................21

8.5.4 Invasive Species.....................................................................................................22

9. COASTAL PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT.............................................................23

9.1 Climate Impacts......................................................................................................24

9.2 Relevant roles.........................................................................................................24

9.3 Adaptation Needs: Research, Planning, and Policy ...............................................24

9.4 Adaptation Needs: Education and Training ..........................................................25

9.5 Specific Issue Areas ...............................................................................................26

9.5.1 Shoreline Erosion ..................................................................................................26

9.5.2 Recreation and Tourism..........................................................................................27

10. HAZARD RESILIENCE AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS .....................................29

10.1 Climate Impacts......................................................................................................30

10.2 Relevant Roles........................................................................................................30

10.3 Adaptation Needs: Research, Planning, and Policy ..............................................31
4

10.4 Adaptation Needs: Education and Training ...........................................................32

10.5 Specific Issue Areas ...............................................................................................33

10.5.1 Storm Surge ............................................................................................................33

10.5.2 Flooding .................................................................................................................34

10.5.3 Hazard Communication, Information, and Alert Systems .....................................35

10.5.4 Urban Heat Island Effect (UHI effect)...................................................................35

11. REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................35

11.1 Infrastructure References .......................................................................................36

11.2 Ecosystem Based Management References...........................................................36

11.3 Coastal Planning References..................................................................................38

11.4 Hazard Resilience and Disaster Preparedness References.....................................39

Appendix I ................................................................................................................................41
5

Laurentan Great Lakes Basin Cimate Change Adaptation

Dawn Nelson, Heather Elmer, Rebecca Held, Danielle Forsythe, and Shauna Casey

in consultation with

Heather Stirratt, Dale Bergeron, Frank Lichtkoppler, Jesse Schomberg, and Marvourneen Dolor

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The NOAA Great Lakes Regional Collaboration Team, Great Lakes Sea Grant Network, and Old 

Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve are working with the Great Lakes & Saint 

Lawrence Cities Initiative to develop specialized training to build the capacity of Great Lakes 

coastal communities to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Training could address issues 

such as climate change research; long-term forecasts for climate change impacts in the Great 

Lakes region; processes by which community leaders can identify and consider management 

responses necessary to respond to forecasted changes; and decision tools and science-based 

resources that are available to make coastal development, resource protection, and infrastructure 

decisions today that sustain communities for the next 50-100 years. To ensure that training meets 

priority needs and provides accessible and applicable tools and resources, these organizations 

are collaborating to conduct a needs assessment: a comprehensive front-end evaluation of the 

climate change adaptation training and information needs of Great Lakes coastal communities. 

The goal of this needs assessment is to collect sufficient information about the knowledge, 

skills, interest, attitudes, and/or abilities of Great Lakes coastal community planners, stormwater 

managers, and natural resource managers to design effective training that increases the ability of 

these groups to confront and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

This study is being conducted in two phases with funding from the NOAA Sea Grant Climate 

Engagement Project and the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative. This report contains the results 

of Phase I, a synthesis of existing knowledge on training and information needs and preliminary 

data collection, funded by the NOAA Sea Grant Climate Engagement Project. Phase II will 

include comprehensive data collection and be funded by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative 

and coordinated by Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve. Phase II results and 

recommendations will be compiled as a companion document to this report. These organizations 

will utilize the results of both phases of this needs assessment to design climate change 

adaptation training for Great Lakes coastal community decision-makers and professionals. Study 

results and recommendations can also guide future investments in Great Lakes climate change 

adaptation training.

This issue areas reported here include background information, climate impacts, and relevant 

roles for stakeholder engagement. This is followed by categorizing needs in two sections: 

research, planning, and policy needs, and then education and training needs. This information is 

included in each chapter. Some chapters also include more precise information for specific issue 

areas that have been placed in the overarching chapter theme. However, these specific issue areas 
6

are relevant to numerous issues in the complexity of climate change adaptation, and should be 

considered in the overall context of both mitigation and adaptation planning.

2. METHODS

The methodology outlined in the NOAA Coastal Services Center needs assessment training 

module1 was utilized for this study. This methodology involves three project phases that consist 

of planning, data collection, and data analysis and reporting:

Planning

• Confirm the issues and audiences

• Establish a planning team

• Establish goals and objectives

• Characterize audience

• Conduct information and literature search

Data Collection

• Select data collection methods

• Determine sampling scheme

• Design and pilot the collection instrument

• Gather and report data

Data Analysis and Reporting

• Analyze data

• Manage data

• Synthesize data and create report

For emphasis, note that all steps listed under planning, which are steps one through five of the 

NOAA needs assessment process, completes phase I. Phase II, as indicated previously, will be 

published as a companion document to this report, and include all steps under data collection, 

analysis, and reporting (steps 6 through 12).

3. GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study is to collect sufficient information about the needs of Great Lakes coastal 

community planners, stormwater managers, and natural resource managers to design effective 

training that increases the ability of these groups to confront and adapt to the impacts of climate 

change.

3.1 Objectives

• Identify and describe the following for Great Lakes coastal community planners, stormwater 

managers, and natural resource managers with regard to climate change:

• Current state of awareness, knowledge, and skill

1

NOAA needs assessment training module available at: www.csc.noaa.gov/needs/home.html
7

• Perceptions and attitudes regarding the issue of climate change and whether/how it is 

connected to community planning, stormwater, and natural resource management

• Understanding of potential economic impacts

• Orientation toward adaptive, mitigative, and combined responses 

• Barriers to and benefits of adaptation planning

• Attitudes toward planning and decision-making in the face of scientific uncertainty

• Need for training and tools 

• Learning styles and preferred training formats

4. PHASE I: RESEARCH PLANNING

4.1 Issue Identification 

The Laurentian Great Lakes basin consists of Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Superior, referred to 

as the upper Great Lakes, and Lakes Erie and Ontario, referred to as the lower Great Lakes. Four 

of these lakes are binationally governed between the US and Canadian governments. Only Lake 

Michigan is solely within US jurisdiction; however, Michigan and Huron are directly connected 

through the Straits of Mackinac, and share hydrologic fluctuation. There are 158 coastal US 

counties, 121 watersheds, and approximately 13 major urban areas in the Great Lakes basin2

.

Four different climate change scenarios are possible for the Great Lakes region: “warmer 

and dry,” “hot and dry,” “warmer and wet,” and “hot and wet”, which provide for a range of 

scenarios with precipitation and evaporation as the most significant factors effecting Great Lakes 

water levels3. Each scenario indicates a decline in lake levels for the upper Great Lakes, although 

with some variation in amount, while the only instance of lake levels remaining the same or 

increasing are the two lower Great Lakes in the “warmer and wet” scenario3. The parameters of 

long term planning, then, are reasonably estimated with a decline in lake levels, yet still allowing 

for a possible yet unlikely water level increase in the lower Great Lakes. Furthermore, it is also 

predicted that extreme precipitation events will increase the need for resilience to higher storm 

water levels and flooding4. 

In Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region, it is anticipated that: 

• “Winters are getting shorter.

• Annual average temperatures are growing warmer.

• Extreme heat events are occurring more frequently.

• The duration of lake ice cover is decreasing as air and water temperatures rise.

• Heavy precipitation events, both rain and snow, are becoming more common.”5

2 NOAA’s State of the Coast. The U.S. Population Living in Coastal Counties. http://stateofthecoast.noaa.gov/

population/welcome.html

3

Based on a presentation by Thomas E. Croley II. 2007. The Once Great Lakes? included in the summary report 

“Starting a public discussion: Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region.” prepared by Stephen Wittman. 2008. 

Available at: http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2008/20080009.pdf 4

Safford, T., Thompson, J., and P. Scholz. 2005. Storm Surge Tools and Information: A User Needs Assessment. 

NOAA Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC.

5

Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region Impacts on Our Communities and Ecosystems. 2005. 

Report of The Union of Concerned Scientists and The Ecological Society of America. 
8

4.2 Initial GLSLCI6 Community Input: Audience and Issues

As a first step in the needs assessment process, the team gathered the perspectives of three Great 

Lakes and Saint Lawrence Cities Initiative member communities regarding who they think 

would be most likely to have a role in coastal community adaptation planning, and what the 

communities’ perspectives are regarding regional climate change impacts, vulnerability of local 

assets to these impacts, and the challenges they face in planning to adapt. 

The three responding communities indicated that those involved in climate adaptation planning 

are likely to work at a variety of scales, from local to national, and across many sectors, 

from tribal, federal, or local government to the university, non-profit, and business sectors. 

Community input identified several additional professional and elected positions that have a role 

in adaptation planning after reviewing an initial list that had been generated by the project team.

A general description of the target audience are professional planners, stormwater managers, and 

natural resource managers working in Great Lakes coastal counties or watersheds.

More specific roles are:

Planner

• Professional Planner - land use, transportation, ports, energy, water infrastructure

• Sustainability Director

• Zoning Director/Administrator

• Director of Housing and Business Development

• Energy Procurement Manager

• Emergency Management Director

Stormwater manager

• Public Works Director

• Engineer

• Public Service Director

• Permitting Authorities

• Municipal Separate Storm Sewer System (MS4) Program Coordinators

• Stormwater Plan Reviewers

Natural resource manager

• Parks and recreation directors

• City Forester

• Park managers 

Policy-makers

• City Council members

• Township Trustees

• Mayors

• County Commissioners

6

GLSLCI: Great Lakes St. Lawrence Cities Initiative
9

• State Representatives

• Representatives and Staff on State Legislature Natural Resource and Environment committees

• Staff on State Departments of Natural Resources and Departments of Environmental Quality 

Protection

Additions suggested by community reviewers include: coastal geomorphologists, parks & 

recreation professionals, city forester, directors of sustainability port directors, environmental 

protection/quality agencies, zoning director, energy procurement managers, housing and 

economic/business development staff, architects, human services, emergency preparedness, 

scientists, and environmental health professionals.

All three communities identified lake level change, coastal erosion, river flooding, changes 

in extreme weather events, water quality changes, and drought as potential climate change 

impacts. Two communities identified precipitation, spread of invasive species, and heat, and 

one community mentioned pressure on aquatic species and coastal flooding as potential climate 

change impacts.

All three communities identified drinking water, stormwater, wastewater, shoreline infrastructure, 

beaches and coastal ecosystems as being most vulnerable to climate change impacts7

.

4.3 GLSLCI Meeting Attendee Input8:

4.3.1	 Awareness, Adaptation Planning Status, Resource, Tool, and Training Needs

A separate survey gathered anecdotal input from a small group of Great Lakes Saint Lawrence 

Cities Initiative 2010 conference attendees regarding climate change awareness, engagement in 

and strategies for adaptation planning, barriers and benefits related to adaptation planning, and 

resources, tools, and training needs. This input will inform the development of Great Lakes Sea 

Grant Network Climate Engagement training modules and the design of questioning routes for 

interviews and focus groups to be conducted in Phase II. 

The nine GLSLCI attendees responding to the survey displayed a high level of awareness and 

concern regarding climate change, regional impacts, and adaptation planning. Nearly all survey 

respondents have already been engaged in adaptation planning or are planning to become 

involved. 

Water quality, recreation and tourism, and carbon emissions reduction were most frequently 

identified as top priorities for adaptation planning. No survey respondents identified shipping 

or human health as priorities for adaptation and only three identified disaster preparedness. 

Ecosystem-based management was the most frequently indicated adaptation strategy (4); 

followed by strategic plans focused on climate change, climate related policies, and dedicated 

funding (3); and zoning ordinances (1). 

7 See Appendix I for summary of initial GLSLCI responses 

8

Great Lakes St. Lawrence Cities Initiative Annual Members meeting June 16-18, 2010: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
10

All respondents identified lack of funding as a barrier to adaptation planning. Limited staff time 

and technical capabilities were seen as barriers by four respondents (4); lack of knowledge and 

institutional inertia by three (3); and lack of public support by one (1). Reduced economic losses 

(6) and meeting political and public demand (5) were the most frequently identified benefits to 

developing adaptation plans. 

Five (5) respondents indicated that their communities or organizations have gathered information 

about potential impacts and adaptation strategies for infrastructure; three (3) for ecology, public 

safety, and transportation; two (2) for commerce, housing, and energy; and one (1) for public 

health.

Education about impacts, financial assistance, and strategies for communicating with the public 

were identified as most useful for supporting adaptation planning by four (4) respondents. 

Technical expertise and tools were identified as most useful by three (3) and guidance with 

policy by one (1).

Forecast modeling was the most frequently identified (6) as a tool needed for adaptation 

planning. Funding to purchase software (6) was seen as a major barrier to accessing tools. Six 

(6) respondents indicated that highly sophisticated tools would be useful.

Coordination and/or collaboration between agencies was the most frequently identified need to 

support planning and decision-making (6), followed by access to local and/or real-time data, 

technical assistance, facilitation support, and communication between agencies and training on 

adaptation strategies (4).

4.4 Module Development and Review

An additional layer of module development was included for purposes of establishing clear 

boundaries between potential focus group participants and module reviewers recruited through 

similar professional networks. This was established by recruiting module reviewers through the 

Sea Grant network early in the process. An email invitation was composed and sent out through 

the Sea Grant network requesting recommendations for module reviewer participants. People 

were then contacted by email or telephone to confirm interest in participating. Those who have 

elected to participate expect to be notified of opportunities and material for review throughout 

the development process, with the student intern for the phase II needs assessment acting as 

liaison in communication. The proposed time commitment for module review is between two and 

four occasions from early summer to December 2010, with an estimate of one to two hours of 

actual module review. This feedback will then be made available to module teams, and included 

as an addendum to this needs synthesis report.

5. OVERVIEW: PRIORITY ADAPTATION NEEDS 

Increased variability of extremes will be difficult to prepare for. As such, it is essential that 

any uncertainty in anticipated events be accounted for in types of structures and adaptation 

plans for communities. This is the basis of adaptive management. Water quality will depend 

on the integrity of water management systems; drinking, storm, and waste water each have 
11

specific infrastructure that require a mix of adaptive management approaches. This issue area is 

highlighted throughout each chapter. 

Also inherent in an adaptive management approach is the need for increased communication 

on multiple scales. Coordination and communication between all stakeholders is a key theme 

in all chapters. Data sharing from monitoring systems and data for 48 hour forecasting are tools 

for decision making that can be shared on a local and regional level. These data are useful for 

numerous socio-economic needs: real-time monitoring can equip researchers and modelers with 

the information needed to produce weather and water quality forecasts as a public health and 

safety service. Specific examples of this are weather and water quality monitoring for beach 

recreation, as well as weather monitoring and forecasting for recreation and commercial marine 

navigation. While these are short term benefits of comprehensive observation systems, the long 

term benefits of accumulating longitudinal data will assist in determining any long term trends in 

a changing climate, and can provide decision makers with the information they need to resolve 

large scale infrastructure, logistical, and operational issues, such as managing the shoreline 

infrastructure that supports the commercial movement of goods in the maritime community. 

Throughout this report, information needs are highlighted in all issue areas, and the reader is 

urged to pay close attention to the inter-relationship of all issue areas of coordination through this 

lens of “data information integration and distribution” or DIID9

.

“The need for real time monitoring is also particular to a changing climate; reliance on past 

averages to as a primary planning reference is no longer sufficient. The National Federation 

for regional associations for coastal and ocean observing describe the need to support adaptive 

management through regular synthesis of coastal data. Timely synthesis and analysis of regional 

ecosystem data will provide managers key information on how environmental conditions are 

changing and whether new management approaches are warranted.”10

In 2008, the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory held a climate workshop 

that delved into the issues and needs of six key scientific theme areas: physical environment, 

water quantity, watershed hydrology, water quality and human health, fish recruitment and 

productivity, and aquatic invasive species. A summary report from this workshop includes a 

similar yet more robust listing of issue areas, research and training needs as reported here, and 

should be referenced in its entirety11, as well as the Climate-Related Needs Assessment Synthesis 

report in 2008 for the NOAA Coastal Services Center12.

9

Desotelle Consulting, PLC; Community Growth Institute, and Beaster Consulting. July 2006. Great Lakes 

Needs Assessment: Issue Area: Data Information Integration and Distribution. Produced for the Great Lakes 

Commission and NOAA/Coastal Services Center. Available at: http://glc.org/regionalneeds/documents/

FinalDIIDNeedsAssessmentJuly2006_000.pdf

10Safford, Thompson, and Scholz, 2005. Storm Surge Tools and Information: A User Needs Assessment.” NOAA 

Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC, p. 17.

11Michigan Climate Workshop Summary and Full Reports (147a and 147b) can be found at: 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/techrept.html. Full citations are in the references section of this report. 12Fauver, S. 2008. Climate-Related Needs Assessment Synthesis for Coastal Management. Synthesis Report for 

the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC. 

Available at: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/needsassesments/
12

Additionally, the National Research Council include in their report Informing Decisions 

in a Changing Climate an emphasis on how to assume strong leadership across the federal 

government, a need that is listed in this report primarily under ecosystem based and coastal 

management, but is applicable in many areas. The basis for the full list of recommendations 

that the National Research Council makes is that “the same core principles that characterize 

effective decision support in such areas as public health, natural resource management, and 

environmental risk management apply to informing decisions about responses to climate change

“Recommendation 1: Government agencies at all levels and other organizations, including 

in the scientific community, should organize their decision support efforts around six 

principles of effective decision support: (1) begin with users’ needs; (2) give priority to 

process over products; (3) link information producers and users; (4) build connections 

across disciplines and organizations; (5) seek institutional stability; and (6) design processes 

for learning” (National Research Council, 2009)13.

Consider these decision support principles in the context of the thematic areas that are 

characterized in the following chapters: Infrastructure: ports, regional planning, and water; 

ecosystem based management, coastal planning and management, and hazard resilience/

disaster preparedness. Although there are more theme areas that could be included here, such as 

protection of source water for drinking, the elements of discussion that are presented here offer 

strong points of entry to address specific climate adaptation needs on multiple scales.

6. INFRASTRUCTURE: PORTS AND REGIONAL PLANNING

The marine and land transportation infrastructure in the Great Lakes basin is part of the basic 

foundation of the national economy. However, much of the shoreline transportation infrastructure 

(navigation channels, breakwalls, docks, piers, etc.) is in extreme need of improvement. The 

commercial value of the water transportation of goods is what can maintain a competitive 

economy since the cost of moving goods (heavy bulk commodities such as coal, grain, stone and 

iron ore) via water transport is considerably less than shipping overland. Emergent is the idea 

of “short sea shipping”: to move goods short distances over water to lessen cost and emissions 

of shipping overland. As lake levels decrease, the need for dredging of channels will increase to 

maintain water shipping viability.

As the regional transportation infrastructure between land and maritime communities is 

a foundational component of the national economy, it is increasingly important to factor 

intermodal transportation hubs (regional planning) into short and long term decision-making 

processes, as well as to provide relevant information for decision support at all scales.

6.1 Climate Impacts

Decreasing lake levels and stronger storm events will increase the need for dredging and the 

disposal of this dredged material. Warmer seasons and shorter periods of ice cover may lengthen 

13For a full list of recommendations for supporting climate related decision making, see the full report Informing 

Decisions in a Changing Climate. A full citation is in the references section of this report.
13

the shipping season. Extreme precipitation events will cause flooding in certain areas. This 

will impact navigation, operational strategies, and the logistics of routing. All of these physical 

changes will increase the need for real time observation, monitoring, 48-hour forecasting and 

data distribution. Many of these issues can be addressed through the framework of coastal and 

marine spatial planning identified in the final recommendations by the Inter-agency Ocean Policy 

Task Force, lead by the White House Council on Environmental Quality (IOPTF, 2010)14.

6.2 Relevant Roles

Port authorities, regional and local planners, developers, sustainability directors, zoning director/

administrator, emergency management director, water and resource managers, engineers; 

Federal, State, and local policy-makers and transportation agencies and officials, shippers, 

environmental laboratories (governments, universities, and other research institutions), weather 

forecast modelers.

6.3 Adaptation Needs: Research, Planning, and Policy

• Port and harbor planning 

• Include climate impact analysis in reporting requirements

• Coordinate timeframes for planning for city, state, federal levels of government

• Modify operational strategies to address climate impacts on:

• Seaway systems: locks, channels

• Vessel maintenance, routing, and operationsPort construction and maintenance

• Regional planning for port, railway, and highway infrastructure

• Prioritization of resource allocation for mitigation and adaptation actions

• Coordination of regional needs: large-scale calculations at federal and state levels

• Cost/benefit analyses of dredging and regional port utility

• Shoreline inventory

• Data distribution, downscaling regional information to local conditions for navigation

• Aquatic invasive species (AIS) and ballast water: operational and control planning

• Real time observation, monitoring, and data distribution

• 48-hour forecasting for marine navigation

• Erosion control methods

• Regional/local analysis and planning between land and marine communities

• Port and harbor management

• Port consolidation and land side transportation networks

6.4 Adaptation Needs: Education and Training

• Erosion control methods that link upstream causes to downstream impacts

• Knowledge transfer of commercial shipping industry in Great Lakes

• Creating relationships between policy-makers, industry, and social systems to optimize 

opportunities for knowledge transfer

• Relationship between land and marine communities

14White House Council on Environmental Quality. 2010. Final Recommendations of the Interagency Ocean Policy 

Task Force July 19, 2010. Available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ceq/initiatives/oceans.
14

• Aquatic invasive species awareness: ballast water management

• Port and harbor management: commercial activity can complement or threaten

• Public access design

• Environmental restoration opportunities in estuaries

• Benefit/cost analysis of adaptation alternatives

• Benefit/cost analysis of mitigation alternatives

• Practical adaptations to maintain the cost effectiveness and competitive advantage of water 

transportation

• Funding strategies for value added construction efforts to extend facility life cycles

7. INFRASTRUCTURE: WATER

Water infrastructure in the Great Lakes basin is a priority issue area, as much of it is aging and 

in poor condition, increasing the risk of waterborne outbreaks of illness and disease (Patz et al, 

2008). The US Corps of Civil Engineers have rated wastewater infrastructure with a D-, faring 

the worst over all other forms of infrastructure (ASCE, 2005). As increased precipitation events 

will inundate impervious surfaces and result in extreme amounts of overland runoff, it will 

also stress capacity of combined sewer systems. This will potentially and likely decrease water 

quality. The US EPA issued a report on the impacts of climate change on water infrastructure, 

calling out the need to address climate change adaptation planning when implementing changes 

in wastewater infrastructure, as this infrastructure has a life cycle spanning several decades (US 

EPA, 2008). The 14th Biennial Report on Great Lakes Water Quality by the International Joint 

Commission recommends that both US and Canadian “economic-stimulus measures now being 

developed should address wastewater system needs in the Great Lakes basin” (IJC, 2009). 

7.1 Climate Impacts

Climate change in the Great Lakes area is expected to bring more intense episodes of 

precipitation (rain, snow, sleet), and thus frequent episodes of flooding are also predicted. 

However, current infrastructure for stormwater may not be sufficient to handle the intense 

episodes of precipitation, which has implications for both flooding issues and water quality. Even 

areas that traditionally do not experience flooding may experience more flood events.

Seasonal distribution is likely to vary greatly, increasing in winter and decreasing in summer. 

Overall, the region may grow drier because any increases in rain or snow are unlikely to 

compensate for the drying effects of increased evaporation and transpiration in a warmer climate. 

This drying will affect surface and groundwater levels, and soil moisture is projected to decrease 

by 30 percent in summer. Dryer soil will increase the amount of surface water runoff, and 

combined with increased frequency of 24-hour and multiple day downpours, flooding events will 

also increase.

7.2 Relevant Roles

Developers, County Emergency Director, City Manager, Emergency Management, Emergency 

Response (e.g., fire rescue, police), Public Works, Parks and Recreation, Federal and State 

departments, Professional Planner, Sustainability Director, Zoning Director/Administrator, 

Director of Housing and Business Development, Energy Procurement Manager, Stormwater 
15

manager, Public Works Director, Engineer, Public Service Director, Permitting Authorities, 

Municipal Separate Storm Sewer System (MS4) Program Coordinators, Stormwater Plan 

Reviewers, environmental laboratories (governments, universities, and other research 

institutions), water quality and weather forecast modelers.

7.3 Adaptation Needs: Research, Planning, and Policy

• Expand horizon of temporal and spatial planning windows

• Inventory and assess stormwater management systems that need to be altered to handle heavy 

precipitation 

• Replace and separate combined sewer and stormwater systems 

• Increase performance of current water quality treatment systems 

• Current systems are based on historical figures and most of them are based on a 10-year 24 

hour storm, which is calculated based on the maximum amount of rainfall in one day, but with 

increasing precipitation, it may be necessary to use a different approach—such as using a 100-

year event as the baseline 

• Economic and environmental analysis of climate change impacts on conventional versus low 

impact development, or green stormwater infrastructure

• Develop models and tools that assess public health impacts, such as risk of waterborne illness 

associated with combined sewer overflows and vulnerability to extreme heat. 

• If planners intend on using “real-time management” then rainfall statistics need to be updated 

so they are based on current figures, and information for designs needs to be updated due to the 

fact that most designs rely on the Technical Publication 40, which is around 40-50 years old. 

In short, planners need access to current rainfall statistics.

7.4 Adaptation Needs: Education and Training

• Need for increased education on effects of urbanization on local hydrological systems 

• Use conservative figures when configuring how to deal with increasing intensity of storms

• Work to improve the efficiency of current systems using models or by closely monitoring the 

situation

• Built better system towards using “real-time management”

• Education on uncertainty involved with prediction of increased rainfall

• Education involving what the phrase “10 year high” and “100 year event” really mean

• Monitoring of stormwater management systems 

• Networks of planning professionals for information exchange

8. ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT

Human use, socio-economic impacts, and climate change must now be considered alongside 

longstanding issues of habitat conservation and water quality. Ecosystem based management 

(EBM) has been developed in response to this need. “EBM accounts for both ecological and 

socio-economic factors as well as their cumulative impacts on a management area. EBM 

provides for geographically specific, holistic resource management of habitats, species, and 

ecosystem level effects of resource use, such as food web impacts” (MRAG 2008). Since such 

a management approach is inherently transboundary, stakeholder engagement strategies are also 

needed (Quigley et al., 2009). For a comprehensive listing of avenues for engagement, as well 
16

as a template for addressing social inequity, see the Draft Michigan Environmental Justice Plan 

(2009).

Political, socioeconomic, ecological, and institutional boundaries

EBM needs relating to political, socioeconomic, ecological, and institutional dynamics are 

largely grouped into two areas:

• Needs relating to a lack of resources and administrational or political hindrances. (jurisdictional 

or governance issues) 

• The need to strengthen collaboration between different local, state, and federal agencies with 

different institutional climates and mandates.

Specific barriers to climate adaptation:

Barriers to Federal Attention to Adaptation

• Lack of Federal Leadership

• Lack of Funding

• Political Opposition

• Ignorance

• Lack of Intra- and Inter-Agency Coordination

• Competing Priorities

• Lack of Adaptation Mandates

• Legal Obstacles

Barriers to State Adaptation Planning

• Lack of federal guidance

• Lack of state-level leadership

• Lack of state and regionally specific scientific information

• Budget constraints

• Reliance on historical conditions

• Lack of public awareness, engagement, and pressure

8.1 Climate Impacts

• Earlier ice breakup and earlier peaks in spring runoff will change the timing of stream flows 

and increases in heavy rainstorms may cause more frequent flooding.

• Reduced summer water levels likely to diminish recharge of groundwater supplies, cause small 

streams to dry up, and reduce the area of wetlands, resulting in poorer water quality and less 

habitat for wildlife.

• Drought and lower water levels might ultimately increase ultraviolet radiation damage to 

aquatic organisms, esp. in clear shallow water bodies.

• River flooding may become more common and extreme because of the interaction of more 

frequent rainstorms with urbanization and other land management practices that increase the 

pavement and other impervious surfaces and degrade the natural flood absorbing capacities of 

wetlands and floodplains. The result could be increase in erosion, additional water pollution 

from nutrients, pesticides, and other contaminates, and potential delays in recovery from acid 

rain. 
17

• Land use change and habitat fragmentation combined with climate change induced shrinking 

of streams and wetlands will also decrease the number and type of refuge available to aquatic 

organisms.

8.2 Relevant Roles

Mayors, City Councils, Planning of Zoning Commissioners, City and County government staff 

Sustainability Officer, Environment Quality Manager, Zoning Director, Energy Procurement 

Manager, Engineer, Architect, Director House & Business Development, human services, 

emergency preparedness, City Forester, Port Directors, Parks & Recreation staff, Federal and 

State departments, environmental NGOs, non-profit organizations, architects.

8.3 Adaptation Needs: Research, Planning, and Policy

• Baseline data against which to compare subsequent data 

• Research on ecosystem processes 

• Relationships between impacts and coastal stressors - identify spatial and temporal thresholds 

affecting the adaptive capacity and biotic integrity of ecosystems

• Population assessments for key species incorporating spatial and temporal considerations

• Long-term data sets on human and ecosystem health 

• Standards for data collection and reporting (such as in an online data clearinghouse)

• Indicators to track the state and health of the ecosystem and to evaluate the effectiveness of 

EBM

• High resolution field measurements of bathymetry, elevation, and substrate types in coastal 

areas at the land-water interface, to improve current digital elevation models

• Identify and prioritize coastal ecosystems in need of conservation and protection

• Verifiable predictive models and spatial tools assessing ecosystem impacts and vulnerabilities 

that reflect changes in hydrology, stormwater runoff, water quality etc. to inform policy, 

permitting, and design standards for stormwater, wastewater, and drinking water, move away 

from relying on historical data as a benchmark

• Lake level forecasting

• Integrative ecosystem models and other decision support tools to link ecosystem services with 

human impacts and responses 

• Actionable science from federal agencies

• Downscaled climate change information to relevant scales

• Increased collaboration with local universities

• Increased networking for exchange of knowledge and experiences

• Financial support for regional and local adaptation

• Address the real and perceived competition between mitigation and adaptation

• Avoid regulatory and cross-jurisdictional conflicts

• Political support for integrated management

• Clear management objectives

• Better communication of EBM principles to the public

• Integrate management and increase communication/coordination/cooperation within and 

between agencies, NGOs, and other organizations and across jurisdictions

• Clarification of fundamental terminology and data to interagency managerial practices

• Engaging community and stakeholder groups in decision-making 
18

• Developing methods for establishing multiple use lake/shore zones

• Developing methods for implementing ecosystem approaches to fisheries management

• Advancing coastal land use practices by accounting for land-sea interactions in land use 

decisions

• Adaptive strategies that retain management flexibility in the face of uncertainty

• Conservation policy and planning initiatives incorporating current and future climate change 

science and impact assessment in an adaptive management approach 

• High resolution forecast modeling of regional precipitation patterns, watershed hydrology, 

predict flooding, runoff intensity, and assess impacts on agricultural practices and stormwater 

to inform design standards, and siting criteria for utilities (stormwater, drinking water intakes, 

etc).

8.4 Adaptation Needs: Education and Training

• Increased data and tools focusing on local, species, and ecosystem-level data 

• *Challenge is a lack of resources--funding, training, and time--to use tools 

• Accurate and verifiable predictive models and spatial tools (geographic information system or 

GIS software, layers, and remote sensing) 

• Need for EBM professional development training 

• Training on how to incorporate dynamic ecosystem processes or ecological sustainability into 

EBM decision-making 

• Training on how to plan, develop, and implement an EBM approach to management

• Practical applications and real-world examples of EBM, including examples of success 

and failure, and how EBM worked, caused the problem, or may have thwarted a problem if 

implemented

• New and different tools/strategies for varied audiences (technical, management, stakeholders, 

public)

• Collaborative research addressing the needs of decision-makers and natural resource managers

• Public dialogue on potential climate change impacts and adaptation strategies to support 

incorporation of climate change research into policy and planning

• A preferred training format would be for participants from a particular place to learn how to 

formulate a strategic plan for implementing EBM

8.5 Specific Issue Areas

8.5.1	 Watershed planning and land use

Climate Impacts

• Earlier ice breakup and earlier peaks in spring runoff will change the timing of stream flows 

and increases in heavy rainstorms may cause more frequent flooding.

• Changes in timing and severity of flood pulses are likely to reduce safe breeding sites, 

especially for amphibians, migratory shorebirds, and waterfowl, and may cause many northern 

migratory spp. i.e. Canada geese to winter further north.

• Reduced summer water levels likely to diminish recharge of groundwater supplies, cause small 

streams to dry up, and reduce the area of wetlands, resulting in poorer water quality and less 

habitat for wildlife.
19

• Drought and lower water levels might ultimately increase ultraviolet radiation damage to frogs 

and other aquatic organisms, esp. in clear shallow water bodies.

• River flooding may become more common and extreme because of the interaction of more 

frequent rainstorms with urbanization and other land management practices that increase the 

pavement and other impervious surfaces and degrade the natural flood absorbing capacities of 

wetlands and floodplains. The result could be increase in erosion, additional water pollution 

from nutrients, pesticides, and other contaminates, and potential delays in recovery from acid 

rain. 

• Land use change and habitat fragmentation combined with climate change induced shrinking 

of streams and wetlands will also decrease the number and type of refuge available to aquatic 

organisms, esp. those with limited dispersal capacities (i.e. amphibians and mollusks) as 

streams and wetlands shrink.

Relevant Roles

• Municipal and regional planner, stormwater manager, natural resource manager, policy makers, 

watershed organizations.

Adaptation Needs: Research, Planning, and Policy 

• Restore and Enhance Critical Near-shore Areas, Tributaries, and Connecting Channels: The 

goal should be to reestablish the natural states critical to near-shore and tributary communities 

so they can once again perform their stabilizing function. If that is not feasible, enhance 

critical elements that play a role in stabilizing communities.

• Remediate Basin-wide Sources of Stress: Research on and implementation of control over new 

and existing invasive species, Mitigate existing negative impacts and prevent significant future 

human alterations of tributary hydrology and Great Lakes shoreline structure. This can include 

promoting connectivity of habitat (such as wetlands or free-flowing rivers) important for many 

species. Reduce loadings of nutrients, sediments and dredged material, toxic chemicals, and 

microbial pollution to the Great Lakes and tributaries from all sources, including addressing 

continued development pressures and potential for increases in polluted runoff.

• Protect Healthy Functioning Elements: Recovery of healthy near-shore communities and 

tributaries, once begun, must be maintained; the conditions that caused the impairments in the 

first place must be addressed. Watershed-based approaches to land use management provide 

the best opportunity to minimize negative impacts on the surface water and groundwater 

essential to the sustainability of the Great Lakes ecosystem. Actions should support and expand 

activities that employ holistic, watershed-based approaches to land and water use decisions. 

Conserve biodiversity.

• Monitor ecosystem health and establish benchmarks for continued improvements: Water 

quality monitoring, erosion control, assess conditions of stream, riparian, and estuarine 

habitats, catalog and assess impacts of development and other sources of environmental 

contaminant on watersheds and water quality. Identify remediation options; improved 

treatment or removal technologies, restore and maintain connections between wetlands and 

lakes or rivers. Identify spatial and temporal thresholds affecting adaptive capacity and biotic 

integrity.

• Incorporate climate change into policy: consider climate change trends and potential impacts 

information, such as projected changes in watershed distribution and functioning, into policy 
20

and planning at various levels of government. Develop land use planning or policies that 

utilize human-directed adaptation to climate change to reduce impacts to Great Lakes systems. 

Develop land use planning and policy actions that protect the natural processes which create 

wetlands and maintain their ability to adapt to varying water level conditions. 

• Incorporate strategies to protect and restore ecosystems:

• Air quality improvement: Strategies to reduce heat trapping gas emissions have the 

ancillary benefit of reducing air pollution

• Water quality protection and demand/supply management: Upgrade sewer and septic 

systems and contain nonpoint pollution from roads, farmland, and other dispersed sources. 

Combined Sewer Overflows (CSO) will be exacerbated by increases in heavy rainfall.

• Urban and land use planning: Reduce sprawl to minimize habitat destruction and 

fragmentation.

• Habitat protection and restoration: Rehabilitation of wooded riparian buffer strips; 

restoration of floodplain forests; wetland preservation and restoration; reducing extent of 

impervious surface; protect against invasive aquatic and terrestrial organisms; preserve 

or restore migration corridors; development regulations designed to minimize landscape 

fragmentation; preserve/restore migration corridors.

• Aquatic Ecosystems, Resources, and Wildlife: Protect riparian zones of rivers, existing 

wetlands and headwater streams, groundwater systems, and lakes; Native species for 

restoration should be evaluated in terms of their suitability for a warmer climate and 

ability to withstand frequent floods and droughts; Water management policies that support 

conservation and reduce human demands for water, achieve by changing human behavior 

in households, farms, and industries.

8.5.2	 Recreation

Climate Impacts

• Changes in the viability of recreational fishing could affect the region’s economy.

• Shorter, warmer winters will result in losses in winter recreation (skiing, ice fishing, 

snowmobiling), but may lengthen the season for warm-weather recreation. Changes in 

recreational fishing, hunting, and wildlife viewing may occur as the distribution of species 

shifts across the region.

• Fixed docks will be too high, ramps will need to be extended, navigational hazards will be 

exposed.

• Climate warming may lower heating costs in winter, but higher costs for air conditioning in 

summer.

• Decreased water levels could reduce hydropower generation in region.

• More days with high heat may exacerbate the formation of dangerous levels of ozone. Ozone 

and other air pollutants generated by coal fired power plants in the region are likely to 

exacerbate asthma and other respiratory diseases.

• Health risks associated with extreme heat are likely to increase while cold related illnesses are 

likely to decrease.
21

Relevant roles

• Municipal and regional planner, storm-water manager, natural resource manager, policy 

makers, Chambers of Commerce, marinas, State tourism boards, tourism professionals, 

conservation organizations.

Specific Adaptation Needs

• Shoreline inventory and projections of lake level changes to assess needs for improvements to 

infrastructure (docks, ramps, navigational hazards).

8.5.3	 Fisheries

Climate Impacts

• Lake levels are anticipated to decline.

• Declines in duration of winter ice expected to continue.

• Loss of winter ice may reduce winterkill in shallow lakes, but jeopardize reproduction 

of whitefish in the Great Lakes bays, where ice cover protects eggs from winter storm 

disturbance.

• Distributions of many fish and other organisms in lakes and streams will change. Cold water 

species (lake trout, brook trout and whitefish) and cool water species (northern pike, walleye) 

are likely to decline in southern parts of the region, while warm water species (smallmouth 

bass and bluegill) are likely to expand northward.

• Change in overall fish production in particular system could change sustainable harvests for all 

fish populations in the system.

• Changes in relative productivity of individual fish populations in particular system could 

change relative levels of exploitation that can be sustainably directed against the fish 

populations in the ecosystem.

• Large-scale shifts in geographic distribution of species could change the mixture of species 

that can be sustainably harvested within a specific geographic area and change location of 

profitable fishing grounds.

• Small-scale shifts in the spatial distribution of members of a specific population could change 

the sustainable harvest for the population and the efficiency of fishing gear, leading to change 

in sustainable levels of fishing effort.

• Invasions by native species currently found south of the region and invasions of warm water 

nonnative species, i.e. common carp, will be more likely, increasing stress on native animal 

populations and fisheries in the region.

• In all lakes, the duration of summer stratification will increase, adding to the risk of oxygen 

depletion and formation of deep water dead zones for fish and other organisms.

• Lower water levels coupled with warmer water temperature may accelerate the accumulation 

of mercury and other contaminants in the aquatic food chain and ultimately in fish.

• Many species will grow faster in warmer waters, but to do so must increase feeding rates. It 

remains uncertain whether prey species and the food web resources on which they depend will 

increase to meet these new demands.

• Water withdrawals from the Great Lakes are already subject of contentious debate, and 

pressures for more water for drinking, irrigation, and other uses may intensify conflicts as 

water shortages develop.
22

Relevant roles

• Municipal and regional planner, stormwater manager, natural resource manager, policy makers, 

fisheries staff, fisheries commissions and councils, Federal and State agencies.

Specific Adaptation Needs

• Reallocation of harvest from adversely affected populations

• Science based information to minimize uncertainty associated with setting sustainable harvest 

limits.

• Maintain exploitation rates at levels that include a safety margin based on historical 

uncertainties in fish stocks.

• Reduce negative impacts of other human induced stressors such as acidification and habitat 

destruction.

• Reduce over-investment in fisheries that exploit certain species at unsustainable rates.

• Ensure that no practice applied for a short time could produce extreme outcomes.

8.5.4	 Invasive Species

Climate Impacts

• Invasions by native species currently found south of the region will be more likely, increasing 

stress on native animal populations and in the region.

• The geographic range of forest pest species such as gypsy moth is likely to expand as 

temperatures warm and the distribution of food plants changes.

• Changes in leaf chemistry due to CO2 fertilization are possible, reducing food quality for some 

organisms. This could cause some leaf-eating pests to eat more and could ultimately alter 

aquatic and terrestrial food webs.

• Crop losses may increase as invasive pests and diseases become established in the region and 

as warmer longer growing seasons facilitate the buildup of larger pest populations. Already the 

range of the bean leaf beetle, a pest of soybeans, appears to be shifting northward.

Relevant roles

• Municipal and regional planner, storm-water manager, natural resource manager, policy 

makers, fisheries commissions and councils.

Specific Adaptation Needs

• Extensive observational and experimental studies or observational studies of performance of 

invasive species in many different geographic locations and correlating its performance with 

biotic and environmental variables in those areas. 

• Studies examining whether climate change will increase the susceptibility of ecosystems to 

invasion.

• Managers will need climate information as it relates to pathways, prediction and risk analyses 

and monitoring for terrestrial and aquatic invasive species.

• States need information on how the effects of climate change (e.g., changes in precipitation 

patterns and temperature) interact with vectors and pathways of invasive species transport.

• Develop, establish, and fund strategically placed and comprehensive monitoring systems; 

integrate and coordinate systems among states; design monitoring systems to incorporate 
23

the potential effects of climate change especially temperature and precipitation changes that 

influence climatic boundaries; establish monitoring baselines to detect changes in climate and 

invasive spp.; develop core of indicators for managers to use when monitoring invasive species 

under changing conditions.

• Develop early detection and rapid response (EDRR) efforts under changing climate conditions. 

Need to understand EDRR capabilities (authorities, emergency powers, broader control 

capacities and develop protocol for early detection and removal).

• In general, research needed to examine and understand pathways and vectors, establishment 

and dispersal, ecosystem susceptibility and interacting stressors (i.e. land use change, fishing, 

overpopulation).

9. COASTAL PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

The need to downscale information is a common theme for coastal planning. However, the need 

for regional data to be useful locally requires making data accessible for local planning purposes. 

The 2006 report from Desotelle identified needs, barriers, and solutions within the basin on 

both regional and local scales. Leadership, tools and data are listed as broader regional needs; 

awareness, communication, data sharing and access are listed as local needs (Desotelle, 2006:22-

23). To emphasize the emerging trend towards ecosystem based management, a summary of 

needs for the coastal management community are: 

“Scientific and social science information needs include matching data collection with 

management needs, improving access to data, ensuring currency and completeness of

data sets, and utilizing GIS and remote sensing technology. Furthermore, managers

require appropriate tools and resources to better understand, apply, and communicate the

data available. The most prominent type of information needed is information on the

human dimensions of ecosystems” (MRAG, 2009).

As for downscaling information and its accessibility to the end-users in coastal communities, 

“the need for real time monitoring is also particular to a changing climate; reliance on past 

averages to as a primary planning reference is no longer sufficient. The National Federation 

for regional associations for coastal and ocean observing describe the need to support adaptive 

management through regular synthesis of coastal data. Timely synthesis and analysis of regional 

ecosystem data will provide managers key information on how environmental conditions are 

changing and whether new management approaches are warranted.” (Safford, Thompson and 

Scholz, 2005:17). 

Furthermore, research barriers have been characterized as “the lack of a robust relationship 

between the extension and research components of Sea Grant hinders the development of a 

research agenda that effectively addresses coastal citizens’ needs. It was agreed that our SCCD 

Extension colleagues must contribute directly to forging relationships with researchers who can 

produce rigorous, fundable proposals that meet clearly defined SCCD research needs.

“Some of the proposed solutions include making outreach a requirement for Sea Grant research 

funding and pairing outreach educators to related research projects. SCCD educators should 
24

become more involved in the research process, by recruiting researchers and identifying

proposal reviewers at both state and national levels. SCCD faculty should also partner as co-PIs

with full-time research faculty to develop relevant applied research projects” (SCCD, 2008).

The National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) Science Collaborative provides a 

mechanism whereby NERRS-based science can be put to work in coastal communities address 

coastal resource management challenges including climate change adaptation. Administered by 

the University of New Hampshire (UNH), the program funds and supports Reserve-led research 

projects that bring scientists, intended users of the science, stakeholders, educators, and trainers 

together to address problems related to coastal pollution and habitat degradation in the context of 

a changing climate. 

The NERRS Science Collaborative uses a competitive process to identify, fund, and foster 

science to address local environmental challenges with broader relevance. Projects are selected 

through annual competitions, designed to insure that research project teams, intended users of 

the science, and relevant stakeholders work together to describe science and technology needs 

to address specific problems, define research questions, design and implement projects, and 

apply the results. The program works with coastal science outreach specialists, trainers, and 

communicators to share information about the science that it funds—not only research results, 

but also methods, collaborative practices, and evaluation tools—with other reserves and the 

broader coastal management community.

Political, socioeconomic, ecological, and institutional boundaries

Specific barriers to climate adaptation:

• Downscaling of information and implementing ecosystem based approach 

- Federal level: intra- and inter-agency coordination, lack of leadership

- State level: coordination, program funding, prioritization

- Regional level: coordination, downscaling information

- Local level: data accessibility, local relevance of regional data

9.1 Climate Impacts

Strong storms, high winds, heavy wave activity, freezing and thawing of lake ice can all 

contribute to shoreline erosion. Changes in shoreline access as lake levels decline and/or 

fluctuate and shorelines erode may deteriorate quality of public beaches and other public and 

privately owned access points. As precipitation events become more extreme, storm and waste 

water overflow may result in poor water quality, and increase risk to public health and safety. 

9.2 Relevant roles

Professional planners, land use planners, sustainability director, zoning

director/administrator, emergency management director; stormwater managers, natural resource 

managers, environmental information services, property owners, developers, State tourism 

boards, policy-makers, Representatives on State Legislature Natural Resource and Environment 

committees, Staff on State and County Departments of Natural Resources, Environmental 

Quality and Protection, government and university research institutions.
25

9.3 Adaptation Needs: Research, Planning, and Policy

• Intra- and inter-agency coordination

• Data distribution and accessibility

• Data coordination

• Regional modeling and information downscaling: regional to local relevance

• Modeling data for fluctuating lake levels

• Real-time monitoring 

• Spatial planning tools, coastal and marine spatial planning for ecosystem based management 

• 48 hour forecasting ability for coastal conditions 

• Monitoring/observation stations and systems

• Inventories

• Risk and vulnerability assessments 

• Prioritization

• Immediate adaptation action 

• Adaptation mandates

• Change legal constraints

• Funding for programs

• Improved methods for estimating coastal erosion

• Public outreach and education

• Land use and land use change

• Erosion rates, erosion hazard and flood areas, potential of catastrophic rise in lake levels

• Enhance current policy and regulatory mechanisms for shoreline erosion

• Coastal area restoration

• Regional information

• Education planning

• Mechanisms for determining public access, recreation needs

• Reconcile competing recreation needs

• Parks and recreation program funding

• Increase and maintain public access to Great Lakes shorelines

• Boardwalks, trails, parks, beaches, piers

• Need for in-depth interviews with end users of programs

• Mechanisms to evaluate trade-offs between human and environmental needs

• Technical tool transfer between state and local governments, and property owners

• Increase national funding, leveraged with state and local resources

• Funding for vulnerability and adaptation research, planning

9.4 Adaptation Needs: Education and Training 

• Intra- and inter-agency coordination

• Data distribution and accessibility

• Data coordination

• Monitoring and information downscaling: regional to local relevance

• 48 hour forecasting 

• Citizen education
26

• Ecosystem information

• Coastal ecosystem complexity: human and natural system interaction

• Participatory and informed decision making

• Decision support tools and mechanisms for accessibility

• Ecosystem based management training (EBM)

• Advanced facilitation

• Land use planning and regulation

• Technical planning tools

• Economic development

• Low impact development

• Zoning

• Conservation design

• Coastal development

• Smart growth 

• Coastal and marine spatial planning for ecosystem based management 

• Conducting needs assessments

• Shoreline erosion control

9.5 Specific Issue Areas

9.5.1	 Shoreline Erosion

Case: Wisconsin

“(Wisconsin’s) top natural hazards are flooding, tornadoes, straight-line winds, and coastal 

erosion. All fifteen coastal counties in Wisconsin experience erosion, flooding and damage to 

shoreline structures.” (Wisconsin Needs Assessment, 2006). “Coastal erosion is a naturally 

occurring process that can accelerate during strong storms with high winds or heavy wave 

actions. Such events can cause sudden failure of bluffs” (p. 10), which has implications for land 

use planning, property owners, and land development.

“Portions of Wisconsin’s coasts are at risk of episodic erosion. Unsound development in these 

hazardous areas can lead to catastrophic events. In 2002, the Village of Oliver, in Douglas 

County, experienced some severe slumping along the St. Louis River. Seven properties were 

affected. One of the properties experienced a large ground failure, with an 18-foot scarp 

approximately one foot from the rear entrance of the home. With assistance from Wisconsin 

Emergency Management, the Village of Oliver acquired and demolished three of the affected 

properties. In a separate event, a home in the City of Superior experienced land subsidence in 

2001, when the entire yard started moving toward the Nemadji River. Erosion from spring floods 

caused the ground within fifteen feet of the house to slide downhill; the City of Superior bought 

the structure and demolished it.” (p.10). 

The danger of using past averages of lake levels is exemplified in this issue as a concern for 

property owners. In Wisconsin, “coastal erosion and flooding have caused millions of dollars of 

property damage. Potential damages in the future may be even higher. Growth along the coast 

has outpaced growth within the state as a whole. Property owners are replacing smaller homes 
27

with larger ones. Urban infrastructure sited using antiquated lake levels may be vulnerable to 

future damage, as well.” (p.17)

Wisconsin is a good candidate for erosion research, as it is undeveloped in many areas. 

“Lake levels are slightly below average, making this a good time to examine and implement 

development tools. Existing management strategies are insufficient to direct development away 

from hazards. The needs assessment suggests that more information about hazards and more 

outreach are needed. The priority ranking for this issue area remains high.” (p. 17).

The Wisconsin assessment lists the general need for tools: mapping, GIS, and tracking of 

hazard areas (p. 14) with the stated goal to “develop and implement shoreline and bluff erosion 

policies.” (p. 18)(Wisconsin Needs Assessment and Strategy, 2006).

Case: Ohio

The Lake Erie Shoreline Erosion Management Plan Local Community Needs Assessment (2007) 

indicates that property owners would like basic training in controlling shoreline erosion, but that 

there was a level of mistrust of sources of information and data. In this assessment the needs 

are categorized as 1) Plans and Permits, 2) Financing Structural Solutions, 3) Best Management 

Practices, and 4) Understanding Lake Erie Erosion.

Several key themes emerged in this study when recruiting for focus groups. First, that 

eliciting response for participation was initially poor because people believed the study to be a 

telemarketing scheme. This changed as the research team asserted affiliation with a University, 

and were able to establish a level of trust. Second, some property owners do not trust the 

Department of Natural Resources, and refused to participate in the focus groups. Third, that 

shoreline erosion can be a very emotional issue for some citizens, and any distrust of government 

for information or training will be difficult to counter when implementing any erosion 

management approach. Shoreline erosion was also a concern for community officials, local 

agencies, contractors, consultants, and engineers. Developers were not included in this study.

Relevant Roles

Professional Planners, Sustainability Director, Stormwater Manager, Emergency Management 

Director, Natural Resource Manager, Representatives on State Legislature Natural Resource 

and Environment committees, State Departments, environmental laboratories (governments, 

universities, and other research institutions), property owners, developers, architects.

Specific Adaptation Needs

• Spatial planning tools, coastal and marine spatial planning as tool for ecosystem based 

management 

• Tools, modeling; 48 hour forecasting ability for coastal conditions 

• Monitoring and observation stations and systems

• Decision support 

• Mechanisms to evaluate trade-offs between human and environmental needs

• Technical tool transfer between state and local governments, and property owners

• Increase national funding, leveraged with state and local resources
28

• Funding for vulnerability and adaptation research, planning

• Best management practices

9.5.2	 Recreation and Tourism

Tourism as an industry has unique planning needs for seasonal climate and weather information, 

both regional and local scale; and timely accessibility to that information (Huntley, 2009). 

Public beaches and shoreline access sites were inventoried for Wisconsin (WNA, 2006). There 

are different types of recreation: land, lake, river based, and vary by season: warm and cold 

weather activities have very different weather requirements. Climate change will effect each of 

these recreation categories differently. Information gathered for the Wisconsin needs assessment 

showed increased demand for: coastal boardwalks and trails, parks, public beaches and fishing 

piers. Barriers for Wisconsin recreation are: multiple recreational activities competing for 

the same funds and resources, changing land uses, ownership, and regulations that reduce 

recreational opportunities and diminish resource quality. There is a general need for land and 

estuarine conservation (WNA, 2006). Although there remains a dearth of literature in this area15, 

the general themes discussed for Wisconsin can be reasonably inferred for other Great Lakes 

coastal communities. Issues of water quality, waterborne disease, and aging water infrastructure 

are highlighted here also (Patz et al., 2008).

Climate Impacts

Changes in shoreline access as lake levels decline and/or fluctuate and shorelines erode may 

deteriorate quality of public beaches and other access points. As precipitation events become 

more extreme, storm and waste water overflow may result in poor water quality, and increase 

risk to public health and safety. Impacts on the tourism industry will vary depending in region 

and locality, and different age and income groups will likely change preference for climate and 

location for tourist destinations (Lise and Tol, 2002). 

Relevant Roles

Planner, Sustainability Director, Stormwater Manager, Emergency Management Director, Natural 

Resource Manager, Beach Managers, Representatives on State Legislature Natural Resource and 

Environment committees, State Departments, State tourism boards, environmental laboratories 

(governments, universities, and other research institutions); water quality, weather forecast, and 

regional climate modelers.

Specific Adaptation Needs

• Regional and seasonal weather forecasting 

• Communication with tourism community (both hosts and travelers)

• Access to and use of water quality data

• Separation of combined sewer systems

• Ecological forecasting

• Land and wetland conservation design

• Methods for shoreline erosion control

• Decision making organizations need to understand implications of their actions on the ground. 

15For further discussion on beaches, forecasting, and public health, see Sturtevant (2004) and the Report on Great 

Lakes Beach Health (2005) listed under the Coastal Planning references of this report.
29

• Training for regional directors about issues of beach closures

• Rapid test methods, predictive models and real-time data for prediction of beach closures

• Training and standardized survey design and test methods

• Educate public and government about the issues using local town meetings as a forum 

• Educate the public by developing strong outreach products.

• Create awareness on how to be responsible beach goers.

• Use Sea Grant Extension agents to aid public in understanding beach closure issues.

Communication

• Establish two way communication network between local beach managers and federal 

scientists and researchers.

• Establish network for beach managers to continue discussion on emerging technologies, new 

training devices, etc.

• Develop better web tools to maintain open communication lines in the region.

10. HAZARD RESILIENCE AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS 

The resiliency of a community, or system, is its capacity to adapt to potential hazards in order 

to achieve and sustain a level of functioning and structure (NOAA/CSC 2006). Great Lakes 

coastal communities are subject to hazards associated with climate change including: increased 

number and severity of coastal storms, risk of oil spills in select regions, and other natural and 

human hazards that have major implications on human safety along with the economic and 

environmental health of coastal areas. Management issues include community preparedness, 

management information needs, planning, training, and public communication and education. 

Despite concerted efforts by scientific and coastal management communities, there remains a 

strong need to increase community resilience to coastal hazards (NOAA/CSC 2007; 2008). 

A 2010 study commissioned by the NOAA Coastal Services Center identified benefits and 

barriers that local land use planners face when considering whether to implement hazard 

mitigation planning. This study produced a compact list of benefits, and a much lengthier list of 

barriers. 

Benefits identified tend to relate to the desire for professional satisfaction. Identified benefits 

include: 

• Intrinsic satisfaction 

• Saved lives and reduced economic losses 

• Compliance with Federal and State mandates 

• Meeting political and public demand, where existent 

Barriers to hazard and resiliency planning tend to be more external. Barriers include: 

• Lack of public support or political will 

• Limited budgets 

• Competing priorities 

• Limited actionable data 

• Disconnect with emergency planners and limited follow-through 
30

• Existing development and property rights 

• Bias in favor of growth 

10.1 Climate Impacts

Flooding 

Climate change in the Great Lakes area is expected to bring more intense episodes of 

precipitation (rain, snow, sleet) so more frequent episodes of flooding are also predicted. 

However, current infrastructure for stormwater may not be sufficient to handle the intense 

episodes of precipitation, which has implications for both flooding issues and water quality. Even 

areas that traditionally do not experience flooding may experience episodes of flooding, so this is 

an issue of importance to coastal communities in the Great Lakes. 

Hazard Communication/Information/Alert Systems

One predicted effect of climate change is an increase in hazard related events, such as flooding 

and more intense storms. These changes require organized systems for hazard communication, 

information, and alert systems. This means that all citizens will need to be able to quickly access 

urgent hazard related information in an effective manner. However, information on this topic is 

limited. For this review, only a few references to this topic was found within papers related to 

flooding, so it is clear that this topic is in urgent need to be addressed by local communities and 

states.

Urban Heat Island Effect (UHI effect)

UHI effect is the effect that occurs when air temperatures in cities are 3.5-4.5 degrees C higher 

than surrounding rural air temperatures. This is caused by a concentration of buildings and 

roadways, which absorb a large percentage of electromagnetic energy from the sun and reradiate 

large amounts of heat. It is also compounded by the lack of vegetation in urban areas, since 

vegetation can provide shade and other cooling effects to the surrounding areas. UHI effect has 

implications for environmental justice and health issues since in extreme heat events, those most 

likely to suffer and face higher mortality risks are the elderly, the sick, and the poor. Since the 

UHI effect is predicted to cause a 1 degree C increase in urban air temperatures each decade, this 

is an issue that needs to be addressed in urbanized areas. 

10.2 Relevant Roles

Consistent with a community-based social marketing approach the NOAA CSC hazard resilience 

report recommends segmenting and prioritizing audiences for climate change adaptation training 

to maximize the potential of achieving behavior change between 1) planners, 2) elected officials, 

or 3) the general public. This report identifies planners as the best target audience among these 

three for NOAA. Planners participating in that study indicated they are already seeing some 

effects of climate change. These include effects on agriculture, septic systems, and flooding 

of coastal properties. In some cases, land-use planners reported that residents were becoming 

concerned about these effects. While awareness of these issues among the public and elected 

officials is increasing, it is still not high.
31

Other audiences for hazard resilience and disaster preparedness training include:

• Real estate agents

• Developers

• County Emergency Director 

• City Manager 

• Emergency management and response (e.g., fire rescue, police) 

• Public Works 

• Parks and Recreation 

• Federal partners with FEMA (in unusual cases, to address broader effects) 

10.3 Adaptation Needs: Research, Planning, and Policy 

• Tools related to natural systems and climate change, mostly sea level rise and storm surge data 

and prediction.

• Increased need for hazard resilience products or services.

• Tools related to multiple scenarios, vulnerability mapping, assessment, forecasts, and 

visualization. 

• Sedimentation related tools.

• Changes in coasts including development need to be included in hazard related tools and 

datasets.

• Detailed information on the economic, environmental, and social benefits of hazard and 

resiliency planning. 

• High resolution data.

• Predictive models to illustrate the evolution of coastal features under various scenarios.

• Predictive models related to public health impacts including waterborne illness and heat 

vulnerability.

• Hazard mitigation and land use planning to limit development of hazardous areas.

• Guidance or assistance for communities on how to implement policy changes in the immediate 

aftermath of a disaster, when public and elected official attention is high as is receptivity to 

change. 

• Guidance for communities on how to address existing development and property rights issues 

related to hazard resilience. 

• Impacts of climate change on water quality.

• Community specific data.

• More studies focusing on socio-economic effects associated with climate change.

• 100 year flood maps need to be updated to reflect changes. 

• Improved disaster management and planning, and also disaster preparedness training.

• Return on investment in terms of reducing damages and economic losses from flooding and 

improving water quality.

• Decision makers need better information about how different erosion control options affect 

regional resiliency and water quality (CICEET 2007).

• Better communication of the importance of economic drivers for erosion control policies. This 

includes quantification of the costs and benefits of non-structural erosion control techniques, 

and better integration with FEMA policies and insurance practices. 

• Primary research to better understand and delineate barriers and benefits to hazard mitigation 

among decision-makers and planners.
32

• Local hazard resiliency studies that examine trend in local hazards.

• Planning horizons need to be widened from a typical window of only 6 months to 5 years in 

order to be able to deal with climate change, and implicitly hazard mitigation planning issues. 

• Hazard mitigation plans need to be developed in such a way so that they limit development in 

hazardous areas, which can be done through a number of ways including zoning ordinances, 

prohibition, and transfer of development rights.

• Hazard mitigation plans can be extremely difficult to carry out due to the complexity of the 

plans and the number of stakeholders and agencies involved, so increased communication 

between stakeholders and agencies is necessary.

• Increased communication with planners about the benefits of hazard mitigation plans is 

necessary in order to implement plans without Federal mandates.

• Increased funding is needed in order to create and implement hazard mitigation plans and to 

assure that every community has access to required tools and training.

• Hazard mitigation planning should become a Federal requirement in order to give states the 

incentive to create and execute hazard mitigation plans.

• Land use standards should not conflict.

Communication

• Need for increased inter-agency communication and collaboration at regional, state, and local 

levels.

• Risk and vulnerabilities communication related to storm surge need to be improved.

• Climate change planning and policy efforts should be coordinated between states.

• Hazard and emergency agencies should increase communication, data-sharing and coordination 

with one another on the local, state, and federal level.

• Improve channels of communication between emergency planners and land use planners.

• Improve communication of risks and hazards to public and decision-makers.

• Public support in favor of development are one of the main reasons why hazard mitigation 

plans are often not on political agendas, but increasing public education on the benefits of 

hazard mitigation plans can bring political attention to developing and implementing policies 

related to hazard mitigation.

• It is necessary to communicate the importance, need, and benefits of hazard mitigation 

planning to both politicians and planners.

• Increased communication and awareness of grant opportunities are necessary to fund hazard 

mitigation planning.

• Increased need for collaboration with local NOAA representatives and land use planners, and 

training for planners on how to utilize and access resources.

• More support is necessary in training planners to educate politicians, the public, and other 

decision makers on the benefits of hazard mitigation planning.

• Land use planners need more assistance in forming communication networks with emergency 

planners.

10.4 Adaptation Needs: Education and Training

• Need for increased education on effects of urbanization on nearby hydrological systems 

(especially related to increased flooding, water quality degradation, base flow decrease issues).

• Educate community planners on the above issues and some options for dealing with the 

predicted effects: 
33

• Use a conservative figures when configuring how to deal with increasing intensity of storms.

• Work to improve the efficiency of current systems using models or by closely monitoring the 

situation.

• Built better system towards using “real-time management.”

• Education on uncertainty involved with prediction of increased rainfall.

• Education involving what the phrase “10 year high” and “100 year event” really mean?

• Important to stress the close monitoring of stormwater management systems in order to ensure 

they are functioning as assumed.

• Networks of planning professionals for information exchange

• Water resource decision support systems

• Model ordinances and BMPs

• Local-specific data and case studies that are actionable from a planning perspective; maps were 

seen as useful, but even more so the data that underlie these maps. 

• BMPs and guidance for dealing which changing lake levels.

• Expert advice and guidance in locating, interpreting, and using available data.

• Encourage planners to see the development or renewal of master plans as an opportunity to 

conduct risk or resiliency planning. Document and publicize successes in this area to encourage 

planners to take advantage of these natural windows of opportunity. 

• Training delivery mechanisms for planners:

• Webinars 

• Local studies

• Conferences

• Local interaction with NOAA representatives in each region.

• Others: social media and networking tools including listserves, APA, conferences, web 

portals, e-newsletters.

• Resources currently used by planners: state programs, digital coast images, LIDAR, Flood 

Smart, DisasterSafety.org, CanVis software.

10.5 Specific Issue Areas

10.5.1	 Storm Surge

Specific Adaptation Needs

• NOAA’s SLOSH model, the primary source for data related to storm surge, needs to be updated 

so that the data takes into account development and other changes that have taken place along 

the coasts.

• Communicating uncertainty related to the forecasts is necessary, and could be done by 

running the SLOSH model in several different scenarios and sharing the result.

• Improvement in storm surge forecasting is necessary, and in order to accomplish this it may 

be useful to integrate data from several different models.

• Socio-economic benefits of utilizing forecasting and other storm surge related tools is 

necessary.

• Tools specific to Great Lakes storm surges need to be developed, because the main model, 

SLOSH, is related to mostly hurricane activity along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
34

Communication

• Improving storm surge forecasts capacity to 48 hours before landfall is a pressing need

• Improving communication and presentation of storm surge forecast results is necessary, and 

may be done using an easier to interpret format.

• Increased communication of full suite of NOAA storm surge models is necessary so that state 

and local users are aware, and so that private and public sector users also have access.

• Need for increased intra-agency collaboration and collaboration between agencies and local 

users.

• Increased outreach is necessary in order to educate the public, planners, and policy makers on 

forecast uncertainty..

• Increased training related to storm surge modeling and forecasting is needed by emergency and 

land use planners and extension workers.

10.5.2 Flooding

Specific Adaptation Needs

• A master plan is necessary in order to highlight community land use goals

• Ordinances prohibiting development in flood zones should be developed in order to decrease 

flooding costs and hazards.

• Plans to purchase land in floodplains and turn them into parks or open spaces should be 

constructed in order to decrease costs associated with flooding.

• There needs to be increased accessibility to tools that illustrate the extent of the floodplain so 

that decision makers can decide where to develop.

• Improved permitting systems and regulations to help mitigate erosion.

• Mitigation of coastal hazards created by erosion (CICEET 2007; NOAA/OCRM 2006).

Improved communication between government agencies involved in resiliency planning, i.e., 

public works departments, emergency management agencies, and planning departments.

• Local and customized forecasts and models.

• Increased communication of flooding risks associated with climate change.

• Increased access to information that assists coastal communities mitigate and understand issues 

related to storms, flooding, changes in lake levels, and climate change.

• More information should be available for community planners regarding mitigation strategies 

involving structural and land damage caused by storms.

• Increased education on the costs and benefits of flood insurance.

• For those who live near levees, it is important to know what levees are, how they work, 

where they are located, how they can be breached, and how to tell if the levee is vulnerable to 

collapse.

• Important for the public and policy makers to understand risks related to flooding, stressing 

that flood risk does not remain static over time.

• The cost associated with mitigation and the cost associated with cleaning up floods afterwards 

should be communicated so that the public and decision makers can understand the justification 

for mitigation since it tends to be much cheaper.

• Increased awareness of the meaning of 100 year floods; Citizens and decision makers should 

know that it refers to the chance of having a specific intensity of flood in one year. This means 
35

that a one hundred year flood has a 0.01% chance of happening every year, not that this type of 

flood can only occur every 100 years.

• Locally customized forecasts and models.

10.5.3	 Hazard Communication, Information, and Alert Systems

Specific Adaptation Needs

Communication

• Citizens need to be educated on where to find information related to information on 

emergencies and evacuations.

• It is necessary for more communication to the public on how to prepare for flooding, including 

precautions and evacuation preparedness.

• Gap in communication between departments and agencies, better communication channels 

needed between local planners, public works, emergency managers.

• Flood warning systems need to be developed along with flood emergency evacuation plans and 

flood preparedness systems.

10.5.4	 Urban Heat Island Effect (UHI effect)

Specific Adaptation Needs

• UHI effect is expected to increase with climate change, so mitigation strategies are necessary 

to develop for urbanized area.

• Mitigation plans should include strategies to minimize impacts of buildings and roads or to 

increase vegetation, such as planting trees, building with lighter materials that absorb less 

energy, and planting vegetation on rooftops.

• Mitigation plans need to be community specific.

• Mitigation plans need to be developed collaboratively between decision makers, planners, 

and policy makers who are familiar with the local area, and environmental scientists and 

toolmakers.

• Tools should be developed that are specific to the local area, either by using an existing tool 

and adapting it to the local area, or by developing local tools.

• Technical issues need to be solved considering diverse and multiple actors and by considering 

issues in their local context (for example by considering local social and economic conditions, 

etc).

Communication

• Need for increased public awareness of the UHI effect.

• Need for increased education among politicians, planners, and other decision makers about the 

UHI effect and how to work to mitigate the effect.

11. REFERENCES

Joseph, S.T., L.A. Chaimowitz, , R.A. Sturtevant, D.M. Mason, C.E. Sellinger, J. Wang, C. 

DeMarchi, and S.B. Brandt. 2009. Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Ecosystem: A 

NOAA Science Needs Assessment Workshop To Meet Emerging Challenges- Summary Report. 

NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-147b. Michigan Sea Grant, Great Lakes Environmental 
36

Research Laboratory and the Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research: 

Ann Arbor, MI.

National Research Council. 2009. Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate. Panel on 

Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support, Committee on the Human 

Dimensions of Global Change, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. 

Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

Quigley, M.A., C.E. Sellinger, S.B. Brandt, D.M. Mason, J. Wang, and C. DeMarchi. 2009. 

Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Ecosystem: A NOAA Science Needs 

Assessment Workshop To Meet Emerging Challenges, July 29-31, 2008, Full Final Report. 

NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-147a. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory 

and the Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research: Ann Arbor, MI.

11.1 Infrastructure References

American Society of Civil Engineers. 2005. Report Card for America’s Infrastructure. Reston, 

Virginia. Available at: www.asce.org/files/pdf/reportcard/2005reportcardpdf.pdf

Gallivan, Bailey, and O’Rourke, 2008. Planning for Climate Change Impacts at U.S. Ports. 

Prepared by ICF International for the US Environmental Protection Agency.

Available at: http://trb.metapress.com/content/p4787426l0853152/

Great Lakes Needs Assessment Ports and Navigation. Final Draft Interim Report August 18, 

2006. Great Lakes Commission and NOAA/ Coastal Services Center. 

Available at: http://www.glc.org/regionalneeds/

International Joint Commission. Aug 2009. 14th Biennial Report on Great Lakes Water Quality. 

United States and Canada: Washington, DC, and Ottawa, Ontario

Patz, J.A., S.J. Vavrus, C.K. Uejio, S.L. McLellan. 2008. Climate Change and Waterborne Disease Risk in the Great Lakes Region of the U.S. American Journal of Preventative Medicine 

35(5):451-458.

Savonis, M.J., V.R. Burkett, and J.R. Potter. (coordinating authors) March 2008. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, 

Phase I. U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7: Report 

by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research.

Transportation Research Board Special Report 290. 2008. The Potential Impact of Climate 

Change on U.S. Transportation. Transportation Research Board: Washington, DC.
37

U.S. EPA. 2008. A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. Office 

of Research and Development. EPA 600-R-07-033F.

11.2 Ecosystem Based Management References

Bails, J., A. Beeton, J. Bukley, M. DePhilip, J. Gannon, M. Murray, H. Regier, and D. Scavia. 

Dec 2005. Prescription for Great Lakes Ecosystem Protection and Restoration: Avoiding the 

Tipping Point of Irreversible Changes. Available at:

http://online.nwf.org/site/DocServer/prescriptionforgreatlakes_1_.pdf?docID=2621

Booz, A., and Hamilton. April 2010. Hazard and Resiliency Planning: Perceived Benefits and 

Barriers Among Land Use Planners Final Research Report. National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration Coastal Services Center, April 26, 2010. Submitted to Human Dimensions Program NOAA Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC.

Dukes, J.S. and H.A. Mooney. 1999. Does global change increase the success of biological invaders? TREE (14):135-139.

Draft Michigan Environmental Justice Plan. Dec 2009. Environmental Justice Working Group. 

Available at: http://www.michigan.gov/documents/deq/envjustplan_304917_7.pdf

Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Communities: vulnerabilities to climate change and responses to 

adaptation strategies. 2006. Environment Canada: Ottawa, ON. 

Kling, G.W., K. Hayhoe, L.B. Johnson, J.J. Magnuson, S. Polasky, S.K. Robinson, B.J. Shuter, 

M.M. Wander, D.J. Wuebbles, D.R. Zak, R.L. Lindroth, S.C. Moser, and M.L. Wilson. 2003. 

Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on our Communities and 

Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Ecological Society of America: Washington, DC.

Moser, S. May 2009. Good Morning, America! The Explosive U.S. Awakening to the Need for 

Adaptation. In cooperation with California Energy Commission and NOAA.

MRAG Americas. Feb 2009. Resource Management Trends Literature Review. Report to 

NOAA/Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC.

Quigley, M.A., C.E. Sellinger, S.B. Brandt, D.M. Mason, J. Wang, and C. DeMarchi. 2009. 

Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Ecosystem: A NOAA Science Needs Assessment 

Workshop To Meet Emerging Challenges, July 29-31, 2008, Full Final Report. NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-147a. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory and the 

Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research: Ann Arbor, MI.

Summary Report for the Coastal Ecosystem-Based Management Course Needs Assessment. 

Feb 2008. NOAA/CSC/RPT 08-01. NOAA Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC.
38

United States Environmental Protection Agency. 2008. Effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species and implications for management and research. Report No. EPA/600/R-07/084. 

National Center for Environmental Assessment: Washington, DC.

11.3 Coastal Planning References

Desotelle Consulting et al. 2006. Great Lakes Needs Assessment: Issue Area: Coastal

Community Development. Report produced for the Great Lakes Commission and 

NOAA Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC. Available at:

http://glc.org/regionalneeds/documents/FinalCCDNeedsAssessmentJuly2006.pdf

Desotelle Consulting et al. 2006. Great Lakes Needs Assessment: Issue Area: Data Information 

Integration and Distribution. Report produced for the Great Lakes Commission and NOAA

Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC. Available at:

http://glc.org/regionalneeds/documents/FinalDIIDNeedsAssessmentJuly2006_000.pdf

Huntley, Melinda. 2009. Climate Change and Great Lakes Tourism: Recommendations for 

Research, Education and Outreach. Tourism Program Director, Ohio State University Sea 

Grant Extension.

Lichtkoppler, Frank and Tom Archer. 2007. Lake Erie Erosion Management Plan Local Community Needs Assessment: Final Report. Ohio Department of Natural Resources, Office of 

Coastal Management.

Lise, W. and R.S.J. Tol. 2002. Impact of Climate on Tourist Demand. Climatic Change 55:429–

449.

MRAG Americas. Feb 2009. Trends in Resource Management Needs and Issues: A Literature

Review. Report submitted to the NOAA Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC.

Available at: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/needsassesments/Coastal_Literature_Review.pdf

National Sea Grant Sustainable Coastal Community Development Extension Strategy. June 

2008. Consensus on issues discussed at extension network meeting: Washington, DC. 

NOAA Coastal Services Center. 2006. IOOS Regional Association Needs Assessment Final 

Report. NOAA Coastal Services Center, Charleston, SC.

Patz, J.A., S.J. Vavrus, C.K. Uejio, and S.L. McLellan. 2008. Climate Change and Waterborne 

Disease Risk in the Great Lakes Region of the U.S. American Journal of Preventative Medicine 

35(5):451-458

Report on Great Lakes Beach Health Research Needs Workshop of November, 4, 2005. Great 

Lakes Beach Association in cooperation with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, 

United States Environmental Protection Agency, and US Geological Survey.
39

Safford, Thompson, and Scholz. 2005. Storm Surge Tools and Information: A User Needs 

Assessment. NOAA Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC.

Second Annual Report of the Coastal States Organization’s Climate Change Work Group. 2008. 

The Role of Coastal Zone Management Programs in Adaptation to Climate Change. Synthesis 

Report from the Coastal States Organization Climate Change Work Group. Available at: http://

www.coastalstates.org/uploads/PDFs/CSO%202008%20Climate%20Change%20Report.pdf

Sturtevant, R. 2004. Great Lakes Ecological Forecasting Needs Assessment. NOAA Technical 

Memorandum GLERL-131. NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann 

Arbor, MI.

Wisconsin Coastal Management Program Needs Assessment and Strategy 2006-2010. Jan 2006

Wisconsin Department of Administration: Wisconsin Coastal Management Program. 

11.4 Hazard Resilience and Disaster Preparedness References

American Society of Civil Engineers. 2010. So, You Live Behind a Levee! The American 

Society of Civil Engineers’ public education booklet. Available at: http://content.asce.org/ASCELeveeGuide.html

Case Study – A Cape Cod Community Prevents New Residences in Floodplains: Lessons 

Learned from Chatham’s legally successful conservancy districts. Town of Chatham, 

Storm Smart Coasts Factsheet.

Corburn, J. 2009. Cities, Climate Change and Urban Heat Island Mitigation: Localising Global 

Environmental Science. Urban Studies 46(2):413-427.

FEMA. May 2003. The 1993 Great Midwest Flood: Voices 10 years later. A 10th-Anniversary 

Anthology of Stories of Hardship and Triumph collected by the U.S. Department of Homeland 

Security Federal Emergency Management Agency. 

Focus group results from NOAA Sectoral Application Research Program focused on climate 

change modeling needs: Preparing Coastal Communities for Climate Change: Translating 

Model Results to Prepare Ports, Harbors and Stormwater Management Facilities in an Era of 

Climate Variability and Scientific Uncertainty. Funding Source: NOAA Sectoral Applications 

Research Project. Primary Investigator: Rochelle Sturtevant, Ph.D. Great Lakes Sea Grant Network, NOAA GLERL, CILER, and the University of Michigan. 2008-2010

Booz, Allen, and Hamilton. April 2010. Hazard and Resiliency Planning: Perceived Benefits 

and Barriers Among Land Use Planners Final Research Report. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center April 26, 2010. Submitted to Human Dimensions Program NOAA Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC.
40

MRAG Americas. Feb 2009. Trends in Resource Management Needs and Issues: a Literature 

Review. Report submitted to the NOAA Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC. 

MRAG Americas. April 2009. A Systematic Review of the Needs and Issues of the U.S. Coastal 

Resource Management Community: A Qualitative Meta-Analysis.” Report submitted to the 

NOAA Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC.

NOAA Coastal Services Center. 2006. Hazard Resilience Theme Narrative. Draft, March 30, 

2006. NOAA Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC.

NOAA Coastal Services Center. 2007. Needs Assessment for the NOAA Gulf Coast Services 

Center. Final Draft. November 27, 2007. 72 pp. NOAA Coastal Services Center: Charleston, 

SC.

NOAA Coastal Services Center. 2008. Needs Assessment of the New England Coastal Resource 

Management Community: Management of Ecosystems and Natural Hazards. August 28, 2008, 

76 pp. NOAA Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC.

Quigley, M.A., C.E. Sellinger, S.B. Brandt, D.M. Mason, J. Wang, and C. DeMarchi. 2009. 

Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Ecosystem: A NOAA Science Needs Assessment 

Workshop To Meet Emerging Challenges, July 29-31, 2008, Full Final Report. NOAA Technical Memorandum GLERL-147a. NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory and 

the Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research: Ann Arbor, MI.

Safford, T., J. Thompson, and P. Scholz. 2005. Storm Surge Tools and Information: A User 

Needs Assessment. NOAA Coastal Services Center: Charleston, SC.
41

Appendix I

(Sources: NOAA survey responses from Great Lakes St. Lawrence Communities Initiative 

(GLSLCI) member communities in Ontario, Wisconsin, and New York [n=3]; to inform NOAA 

climate change adaptation mini-grant audience profile and issue identification, Feb 2010).

Relevant Roles--General

Knowledge and interests: 

• Degree of knowledge on climate change impacts equivalent to average citizen

• Low to moderate awareness level

• Low familiarity with climate change terminology

• Degree of interest highly variable

Scale of work

Mostly at local/regional level, though some at the state/national level. 

Potential climate change impacts having significant effect on Great Lakes coastal communities 

(+ indicates single response from survey participants):

• Lake level change +++

• Pressures on aquatic species+

• Decreasing snow pack in upper Great Lakes

• Coastal erosion +++

• River flooding +++

• Coastal flooding +

• Changes in extreme weather events +++

• Change in water quality +++

• Spread of new or existing invasive species ++

• Precipitation ++

• Drought+++

• Heat ++

Community assets/ activities that are most vulnerable to climate change (+ indicates single 

response from survey participants):

• Disaster preparedness and emergency response +

• Transportation+

• Capital investments+

• Budgets++

• Economic development +

• Ports+

• Energy++

• National security+

• Land use (+loss of public and private investment in infrastructure)

• Drinking water quality+++

• Drinking water infrastructure+++
42

• Stormwater infrastructure+++

• Wastewater infrastructure+++

• Shoreline infrastructure+++

• Wetlands++

• Streams and rivers++

• Beaches and coastal ecosystems+++

• Public health ++

By Question: 

1) Which potential climate change impacts will have the most significant effect on your own 

and/or other Great Lakes coastal communities?

GLSLCI community in Ontario:

“Lake level changes, coastal erosion, river flooding, changes in extreme weather events

(e.g., very high and sustained winds), changes in water quality, spread of invasive species,

precipitation, drought and, of course, heat.”

GLSLCI community in New York:

• Lake level change

• Pressures on aquatic species

• Coastal erosion

• River flooding

• Changes in extreme weather events

• Change in water quality

• Spread of new or existing invasive species

• Precipitation

• Drought

GLSLCI community in Wisconsin:

• Lake level change

• Coastal erosion

• River flooding

• Coastal flooding

• Changes in extreme weather events

• Change in water quality

• Drought

2) What community assets/activities are most vulnerable to climate change?

GLSLCI community in Ontario:

“All of those assets/activities listed, with land use including loss of public and private

investment in buildings and structures, including road infrastructure.”
43

GLSLCI community in New York:

• Budgets

• Energy

• Drinking water quality

• Drinking water infrastructure

• Stormwater infrastructure

• Wastewater infrastructure

• Shoreline infrastructure

• Wetlands

• Streams and rivers

• Beaches and coastal ecosystems

• Public health

GLSLCI community in Wisconsin:

• Ports

• Drinking water quality

• Drinking water infrastructure

• Stormwater infrastructure

• Wastewater infrastructure

• Shoreline infrastructure

• Beaches and coastal ecosystems