A Report by the

Climate Change Science Program and

the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

Revised Research Plan

for the U.S. Climate Change 

Science Program

Revised Research Plan

for the U.S. Climate Change

Science Program

A Report by the

Climate Change Science Program and

the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

May 2008
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................iii

I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................1

About the Revised Research Plan..............................................................2

About the Climate Change Science Program ................................................3

II. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM PLANNING ......................7

III. HIGHLIGHTS OF PROGRESS: 2003TO 2007 ......................................11

IV. EMERGING PRIORITIES FORTHE

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM ..25

V. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

CROSS-CUTTING ELEMENTS......................29

VI. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

RESEARCH PLANS: 2008TO 2010 ................35

Research Plans for Goal 1: 2008 to 2010 ..............37

Research Plans for Goal 2: 2008 to 2010 ..............41

Research Plans for Goal 3: 2008 to 2010 ..............45

Research Plans for Goal 4: 2008 to 2010 ..............48

Research Plans for Goal 5: 2008 to 2010 ..............50

Interagency Implementation Plans ......................53

VII. CONCLUSION..............................................57

VIII. INFORMATION REGARDINGTHE PREPARATION

OFTHE REVISED RESEARCH PLAN ..................................................59

External Expert Reviewers ..................................................................60

References Cited................................................................................60

APPENDICES ..............................................................................................65

1. CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products ..................................................66

2. Selected Observing Missions and Networks

and Data Management Systems Relevant to CCSP Research............................71

3. Relationship of CCSP Strategic Goals to GCRA Research Elements ..................78

Table of Contents
Executive

Summary
Executive Summary

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) released its Strategic

Plan in 2003.This Revised Research Plan, in compliance with Section

104(a) of the Global Change Research Act of 1990, is an update to the 2003

Strategic Plan. It reflects both scientific advances since the publication of the

2003 Strategic Plan and the evolving needs of society.The update focuses on

near-term (1-3 year) planning needs, and specifically addresses research plans

for the period 2008 to 2010.The Revised Research Plan also represents one

of the first steps in the longer term development of the next Strategic Plan.

CCSP is currently developing a process for gathering input from a wide

range of stakeholder and scientific communities to inform the development

of that new Strategic Plan, which will describe approaches for addressing

the Nation’s needs for climate change information beyond the 2010 time

frame and into the next decade.

The Revised Research Plan contains an updated statement of capabilities

and objectives consistent with CCSP’s current Strategic Plan but reflecting

both scientific progress and the Nation’s evolving societal and environmental

needs. It also contains examples of research progress and a discussion of the

program’s emerging priorities. Using the program’s five strategic goals as

an organizing framework, the Revised Research Plan provides a goal-bygoal overview of emerging research questions and themes, key research

topics, and illustrative research plans for the years 2008 to 2010.

CCSP’s vision isa Nation and the global community empowered with the sciencebased knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and

related environmental systems.Its mission is to facilitate the creation and application

of knowledge of the Earth’s global environment through research,observations,decision

support,and communication.

This mission arises from the recognition that climate variability and

change will continue to influence society directly and indirectly, and that in

order to make informed decisions, society requires knowledge as to 1) what

is changing and how; 2) what forces are causing those changes; 3) how the

Earth system may change in the future and affect societies and ecosystems;

4) what parts of the Earth system are most sensitive to global change and

how adaptable those parts are; and 5) how scientific knowledge can be

effectively applied to manage the risks and opportunities.These are the

essence of CCSP’s strategic goals.

To address these goals, CCSP will utilize the Nation’s investments and

advances in monitoring, analysis, and modeling to increase understanding of

Earth systems and the processes affecting their changes (Goals 1 through 3),

while strengthening activity in understanding societal and ecosystem

sensitivities and adaptability, and supporting decisionmaking (Goals 4

and 5).The effectiveness of this suite of activities will be enhanced through

the development of robust communication and education activities that

serve decisionmakers, stakeholders, and the public.

For each of CCSP’s strategic goals, the Revised Research Plan provides a

series of specific examples of research priorities and plans. The illustrative

examples in the Revised Research Plan are not intended to

iv
provide an exhaustive list of every CCSP research project, but

rather to provide an indication of the breadth and depth of the

program’s activities. In addition to the illustrative research examples

identified in the Revised Research Plan, it is fully expected that other

important research topics, yet to be determined, will emerge from future

scientific progress, events, and societal needs.

As identified in the Revised Research Plan, key components of CCSP’s

activities over the next 3 years include the following:

• CCSP will continue to provide the basic physical science required to

understand Earth’s past and present climate, including its natural

variability, and to improve understanding of the causes of and

uncertainties in observed variability and change at global, continental,

regional, and local scales. CCSP remains committed to basic,

ongoing research to understand climate processes and the forcing

factors that cause changes in climate and related systems.

• CCSP will increasingly address emerging needs for research to more

fully understand the impacts of climate change on unmanaged and

managed ecosystems, human health and infrastructure, economic,

and other human systems.

• CCSP will continue to generate science to support decisionmaking

related to the management of risks and opportunities of climate

variability and change, including adaptive management and mitigation

efforts, with an increased emphasis on generating scientific results at

regional and local scales.

• CCSP will place greater emphasis on communicating with users and

stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments, academia, industry,

public utilities, and nongovernmental organizations), both to gain

the benefit of their experience, perspectives, and input and to ensure

that the results of CCSP research, monitoring data, and assessments

are widely and easily available and accessible to potential users of

this information.

These four points distill the key similarities and differences between the

2003 Strategic Plan and the way forward that is identified and illustrated in

the Revised Research Plan.

CCSP’s role in meeting the challenges of global change is vital. CCSP

adds value to Federal agency efforts in climate change research and related

activities by providing a structure and coordination mechanism that leverages

individual agency efforts through increased cooperation, collaboration, and

the joint development of research priorities.The CCSP framework allows

Federal agencies engaged in global change research to do more than individual

agencies could do separately, thus to more effectively address the Nation’s

global change science needs and coordinate and communicate their activities

with those of their domestic and international research partners and

stakeholders. In contributing to this framework, the Revised Research Plan

is consistent with the CCSP guiding vision identified above and restated

here: “A Nation and the global community empowered with the sciencebased knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the

climate and related environmental systems.”

v

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
vi

U.S. Climate Change Science Program

<www.climatescience.gov>

Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

<www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/final>

CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products

<www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-summary.php>

NRC Committee on Strategic Advice on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

<dels.nas.edu/globalchange/ccsp.shtml>

IPCC Fourth Assessment

<www.ipcc.ch>

IPCC Fourth Assessment Synthesis Report and Summary for Policymakers

<www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm>

IPCCWorking Group I:The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change

<ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html>

IPCCWorking Group II: Climate Change Impacts,Adaptation andVulnerability

<www.ipcc-wg2.org>

IPCCWorking Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change

<www.mnp.nl/ipcc/pages_media/AR4-chapters.html>

Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)

<www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/gcos>

U.S. Climate Change Science Program Contact Information

U.S. Climate Change Science Program

1717 Pennsylvania Ave, NW, Suite 250

Washington, DC 20006 USA

Tel: +1 202 223 6262

Fax: +1 202 223 3065

Email: information@climatescience.gov

Web: <www.climatescience.gov>

Webmaster: webmaster@climatescience.gov

IMPORTANT LINKS AND CONTACT INFORMATION
I Introduction
I. Introduction

About the Revised Research Plan

This Revised Research Plan is an update to the 2003

Strategic Plan for the U.S.Climate Change Science Program

(CCSP).1The 2003 CCSP Strategic Plan is an in-depth

document, the result of extensive study and stakeholder

involvement, intended to provide guidance to and goals

for the program for the 10-year period 2003 to 2013

(CCSP, 2003).As such, it provides the larger framework

for the activities of the program, and operates at a

strategic level as well as providing concrete milestones to

guide scientific research and for use in assessing progress

toward the overarching goals of the program.

The 2003 CCSP Strategic Plan was developed via a

thorough, open, and transparent multi-year process

involving a wide range of scientists, managers, and

stakeholders, including members of the academic

community, Federal, state, and local agencies and other

entities, and citizens.A significant part of this process was

the review of both the draft and final plan by the National

Research Council.2These reviews played an important

role in influencing the 2003 Strategic Plan’s development

and its subsequent use.

The Strategic Plan is of long-term value to CCSP and

was written for the period 2003 to 2013, but like any

strategic plan, it must be supplemented by shorter term

revisions that take into account both advances in the

science and changes in societal and environmental needs.

CCSP has a robust, ongoing long-range strategic planning

process to ensure that these needs are met.This Revised

Research Plan draws on CCSP’s long-range planning

process and provides this update.The publication of this

Revised Research Plan is also one of the first steps in the

longer term development of the next CCSP Strategic Plan.

At the time of this writing, CCSP is engaged in the

production of four documents reflecting its current shortand long-term planning and assessment activities in

addition to the synthesis and assessment products

currently in production.

This Revised Research Plan and its companion

Scientific Assessment are being produced in compliance

with the requirements of the Global Change Research Act

of 1990.The Revised Research Plan and the Scientific

Assessment will be published on or before 30 May 2008.

The Revised Research Plan by definition is intended to

address near-term (1-3 year) needs, thus focuses on

planning and activities for the period 2008 to 2010,

including those already in progress at publication. It draws

from and synthesizes existing and new research plans and

priorities that are developed and published each year in

CCSP’s annual report to Congress. It thus provides an

integrated, short-range update to the 2003 CCSP

Strategic Plan but does not replace that Plan.The specific

objectives of the Scientific Assessment – entitled Scientific

Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States –

are to integrate, evaluate, and interpret the findings of

CCSP to support informed discussion of the relevant

issues by decisionmakers, stakeholders, the media, and

the general public.The Scientific Assessment draws

from and synthesizes findings from recently published

assessments of the science, including reports and products

by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) and CCSP.

In addition to producing these two deliverables,

CCSP is engaged in developing a long-range strategic

planning exercise with the goal of producing the next

CCSP Strategic Plan, in order to address the Nation’s

need for climate change information beyond the short

term and extending decades into the future.While the

strategic planning process is still in the early stages of

development, it will be a thorough, deliberative

process that will include intensive stakeholder

engagement and multiple opportunities for stakeholders

to provide input. It is anticipated that these activities will

include such venues as sessions at professional meetings

and/or workshops, and that these opportunities will

be posted well in advance on the CCSP web site.3The

new Strategic Plan will also consider and benefit from

the comments and discussion generated during the

production of the Revised Research Plan and Scientific

Assessment.

2

1 See <www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/final>.

2 See <www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11565> for the draft plan and

<www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=10635> for the final plan.

3 See <www.climatescience.gov>.

CCSP Revised Research Plan May 2008

Scientific Assessment May 2008

‘Capstone’ Synthesis and Assessment Product 2009

CCSP Strategic Plan 2013 to 2023 2010
The fourth product in development is a‘Capstone’ to

the series of 21 CCSP synthesis and assessment products

that are being released during the 2006 to 2008 time

period.This Capstone Synthesis and Assessment Product

will incorporate findings from the suite of 21 synthesis

and assessment products, thus will integrate and analyze

CCSP results across the full range of sectors, disciplines,

and cross-cutting issues treated in the synthesis and

assessment products, with a particular emphasis on North

America.

Subsequent sections of this Revised Research Plan

include: 1) an updated statement of vision, goals, and

capabilities consistent with CCSP’s current Strategic Plan

but reflecting both scientific progress and the evolution of

the program based on accomplishments and evolving

societal and environmental needs; 2) highlights of ways in

which the program is evolving in the context of the

progress made over the years since the 2003 Strategic

Plan was put in place, and a description of recent priorities

that have emerged as a result; and 3) at an integrative

level, a description of research plans for the coming years,

in order to build upon the work envisioned in the Strategic

Plan and begun over the past 4 years.

About the Climate Change Science

Program

The vision of CCSP is:

A Nation and the global community empowered

with the science-based knowledge to manage the

risks and opportunities of change in the climate

and related environmental systems.

The core precept that motivates CCSP is that the best

possible scientific knowledge should be the foundation for

the information required to manage climate variability

and change and related aspects of global change.Thus, the

mission of CCSP is to:

Facilitate the creation and application of knowledge

of the Earth’s global environment through research,

observations,decision support,and communication.

CCSP’s five strategic goals are:

• CCSP Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s

past and present climate and environment, including

its natural variability, and improve understanding

of the causes of observed variability and change.

• CCSP Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces

bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and

related systems.

• CCSP Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections

of how the Earth’s climate and related systems

may change in the future.

• CCSP Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and

adaptability of different natural and managed

ecosystems and human systems to climate and

related global changes.

• CCSP Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the

limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and

opportunities related to climate variability and

change.

These strategic goals provide the overarching

framework for CCSP research, and serve to implement

and augment the research elements outlined in the Global

Change Research Act of 1990 (see Appendix 3 for further

explanation of the relationship between the GCRA

research elements and the CCSP strategic goals).

In working toward these strategic goals, CCSP

employs four core approaches, including:

• Scientific Research: Plan, sponsor, and conduct

research on changes in climate and related systems.

• Observations: Enhance observations and data

management systems to generate a comprehensive

set of variables needed for climate-related research.

• Decision Support: Develop improved sciencebased resources to aid decisionmaking.

• Communications: Communicate results to

domestic and international scientific and

stakeholder communities, stressing openness and

transparency.

The first two of these core approaches are

comparatively mature, drawing upon the scientific

strengths of Federal and academic institutions and the

combination of valuable legacy data sets with current

observational, experimental, and modeling capabilities

3

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
and future platforms, networks, and data systems.The

2003 Strategic Plan notes that the latter two – Decision

Support and Communications – are areas where

substantial growth is required, and for which the

development of new capabilities and activities will be

needed.As new scientific information has become available,

it is clear that CCSP is moving from an environment in

which understanding the climate system is the focus to

one in which the focus is balanced among understanding

the climate system and understanding and communicating

the effects of changing climate on the environment and

society.This transition requires CCSP to engage with a

larger number of more diverse consumers of CCSP’s

science, and includes the need for dialog and partnership

with a larger range of agencies, observational systems,

and cultures than CCSP has engaged in the past.While

substantial progress has been made in these areas over the

past few years, decision support and communications

remain areas of both need and opportunity for CCSP and

for the entire global change community, as pointed out in

the 2007 National Research Council (NRC) report on

CCSP (NRC, 2007a).

In order to understand CCSP’s role in fostering and

coordinating Federally funded U.S. climate change

research, it is important to understand what CCSP is and

the role CCSP has in the Federal government. CCSP has

responsibility for implementing some provisions of the

Global Change Research Act of 1990, but CCSP is not a

Federal agency. Rather, it is a structure and a mechanism

for coordinating and integrating Federal research on climate

and global change, and for making recommendations on

priorities that Federal agencies consider in their planning,

as authorized in the Global Change Research Act of 1990.

Research on global change, including climate change, is

sponsored and/or conducted by 13 Federal agencies

and/or departments that are members of CCSP; CCSP

is open to all agencies that have an interest in climate

change research, including impacts and/or the adaptation

to and mitigation of climate change effects.The CCSP

membership also includes government entities that do not

sponsor or conduct research but which play a critical role

in the Federal research establishment.The latter are the

Office of Science andTechnology Policy, the Council on

Environmental Quality, and the Office of Management

and Budget. CCSP encompasses both the U.S. Global

Change Research Program (established by the GCRA)

and the 2001 Climate Change Research Initiative.

CCSP fosters coordination of Federal global change

activities across thematic and cross-cutting elements that

utilize the four core approaches (scientific research,

observation, communication, and decision support)

highlighted above. CCSP also helps to coordinate

international research and cooperation. Member agencies

and departments include the following:

• Department of Agriculture

• Department of Commerce

• Department of Defense

• Department of Energy

• Department of Health and Human Services

• Department of the Interior

• Department of State

• Department ofTransportation

• Agency for International Development

• Environmental Protection Agency

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration

• National Science Foundation

• Smithsonian Institution.

The program is led by an interagency committee of

senior representatives from the participating departments

and agencies that is responsible for overall priority-setting,

program direction, and management review.The CCSP

Director chairs this committee. InteragencyWorking

Groups, composed of designated Federal program

managers representing agencies involved in each of the

program’s research and cross-cutting elements, work

together to plan and implement interagency activities and

priorities aligned with CCSP’s goals. CCSP’s research

elements include:

• Atmospheric Composition

• ClimateVariability and Change / Modeling

• GlobalWater Cycle

• Ecosystems

4

Introduction
• Land-Use and Land-Cover Change

• Global Carbon Cycle

• Human Contributions and Responses.

CCSP’s cross-cutting elements include:

• Observations and Data Management

• Modeling

• Decision Support

• International Research and Cooperation

• Communication.

CCSP has a single office, the function of which is to

facilitate and support the activities of the Program by

providing value-added staffing and day-to-day coordination

of CCSP-wide program integration, strategic planning,

product development, and communication. CCSP’s

budget process is implemented within the context of the

Federal budget process: budget issues are coordinated by

the CCSP Principals, CCSP Financial Operations Group,

interagency working groups, and other mechanisms, but

ultimate accountability for budgetary matters resides with

CCSP’s participating agencies and departments.

Global change research activities across CCSP’s 13

departments and agencies include research conducted by

scientists in Federal agencies, academia, industry, and

non-profit organizations through a mix of directed and

competed programs.The value of CCSP is in the facilitation

of interagency cooperation and collaboration; thus, some

CCSP accomplishments, while primarily the work of single

agencies, have benefited from and been strengthened

through the perspectives of and ongoing discussion with

other CCSP agencies. Other accomplishments reflect

coordinated efforts among multiple agencies that because

of their scope or size are activities that could not be

undertaken by any single agency. Both types of

accomplishments are important. CCSP provides leverage

for individual agency efforts in global change research

through improved coordination and communication, and

provides an avenue for integrating research across agencies,

and for producing annual reports to Congress that include

both periodic reports on research progress and updated

summaries of future research plans. CCSP also provides

climate-related input to other Federal and Administration

initiatives (e.g., the Ocean Action Plan, the U.S. Group

on Earth Observations), and a way for the Federal climate

change research establishment to assess joint opportunities

and needs for programmatic evolution in response to

changing societal and environmental needs. Scientists

supported by CCSP-participating agencies contribute

scientific expertise, and CCSP itself contributes other

resources to key international efforts, including the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC), the synthesis and reporting activities

of the IPCC, the International Council for Science (ICSU),

theWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO), the

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and

other international partnerships and cooperative activities.

CCSP also supports U.S. participation in the activities

of the IPCC.The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental

body established byWMO and UNEP to provide

decisionmakers and others with an objective source of

information about climate change.The IPCC periodically

compiles and releases comprehensive, objective, open,

and transparent assessments using the latest scientific,

technical, and socioeconomic literature produced worldwide to aid in the understanding of intrinsic climate

variability and feedback mechanisms and the risk of

human-induced climate change, its observed and projected

impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation.The

fourth such analysis, termed the IPCC Fourth Assessment

Report, was released in 2007. In addition to providing

scientific expertise and leadership by CCSP-participating

agency scientists during the drafting and editing process,

CCSP directly supported the activities of theWorking

Group ITechnical Support Unit.Via its coordination

office, CCSP managed the U.S. author nomination process,

the Expert and Government Reviews, and the final

government review of the Summaries for Policymakers

forWorking Groups I and II and the Synthesis Report.

CCSP produces a number of key products. First and

foremost, numerous peer-reviewed scientific papers are

published each year by scientists working on research that

falls under the auspices of CCSP.The importance of these

numerous scientific publications is paramount.Without

5

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
the significant advances in our understanding of climate

change and climate variability made available through

these publications, there would be no useful information

to communicate to the public or to aid in decisionmaking.

In addition, CCSP produces an annual report to

Congress that provides a yearly update on key scientific

findings and plans for the coming fiscal year. CCSP also

fosters stakeholder and community engagement by

sponsoring workshops, such as the 2005 workshop on

Decision Support that brought together experts and

stakeholders for discussions of climate change and its

impacts and yielded a publicly available report of its

proceedings.4As mentioned above, CCSP also contributes

substantial expertise and support to other national and

international assessments, including the IPCC Fourth

Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007a,b,c), the Arctic Climate

Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2005), and many others.

Other key products of the program include the

aforementioned 2003 CCSP Strategic Plan and a series of

21 synthesis and assessment products that are being

produced during the 2006 to 2008 timeframe.The scope

of the synthesis and assessment products was informed in

part by the substantial stakeholder engagement in the

earlier strategic planning process.These synthesis and

assessment reports provide in-depth‘state of the science’

information responsive to the CCSP overarching strategic

goals and related to specific national, regional, and sectoral

issues (see Appendix 1 for a listing and description of

these products, and <www.climatescience.gov/Library/

sap/sap-summary.php> for information on available

products and the status and timelines of products in

preparation).

CCSP adds value to Federal agency efforts in climate

change research and related activities by providing a

structure and coordination mechanism for global change

activities, resulting in strong leveraging of individual agency

efforts through increased cooperation, collaboration, and

the ability to jointly develop priorities that Federal

agencies can consider in their planning.This facilitation

and cooperation will continue and strengthen as CCSP

improves its capability in communication and decision

support, and will allow Federal global change endeavors

to continue to do more than individual agencies could do

separately, to increase the impact of accomplishments,

and thus to provide additional worth to stakeholder

communities and the public.

6

Introduction

4 See <www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/finalreport>.
II Climate Change

Science Program

Planning
II. Climate Change

Science Program

Planning

CCSP maintains an ongoing planning process to determine

near-term objectives and interagency targets of opportunity

as well as long-term strategic directions.This Revised

Research Plan reflects the short-term (1-3 year) direction

of the program, and thus provides an update for the period

2008 to 2010. It is an interim product of the ongoing

CCSP strategic planning process.

To develop its near-term plans, CCSP utilizes a

number of internal and external review processes to

develop priorities, to assess progress, and to identify areas

needing additional focus. CCSP principal representatives

of participating agencies meet on a regular basis to discuss

agency perspectives and priorities, to develop, implement,

and evaluate the program’s activities, and to assess

progress. Individual member agencies develop and

implement their own priorities that emerge from agency

direction and agency stakeholder engagement, and they

make a substantial contribution to the achievement of

CCSP’s strategic goals.

The program’s interagency working groups (IWGs)

also meet regularly to bring together the program

managers responsible for implementing their individual

agencies’ research programs as they pertain to CCSP

research, cross-cutting elements, and core

approaches (a description of

each IWG, including

membership

and

objectives, is available on the CCSP website

<climatescience.gov>). Some IWGs convene Science

Steering Groups composed of members of the relevant

scientific communities as an additional means of increasing

communication with those communities. IWGs also

develop annual interagency implementation priorities in

which they identify research activities that require

cooperation and collaboration among member agencies

and that are aligned with the science and cross-cutting

elements defined in the Strategic Plan.These interagency

implementation priorities are often multidisciplinary,

highly integrative, and speak to not just one, but a

combination of CCSP strategic goals. Implementation of

these interagency priorities can result in joint funding

solicitations, joint field campaigns, workshops, and other

efforts.The combination of individual agency activities,

interagency activities, international activities, and

stakeholder engagement and outreach activities form the

bulk of CCSP’s progress toward its goals. Each year, the

preparation of CCSP’s annual report to Congress provides

a means of self-evaluation as program accomplishments

and gaps are reviewed relative to goals.

To inform its planning, CCSP also seeks, funds, and

receives periodic evaluations from NRC ad hoc

committees and standing

committees

established

for that

8
purpose. Recent NRC reports and assessments include

Thinking Strategically:The Appropriate Use of Metrics for the

Climate Change Science Program (NRC, 2005), Evaluating

Progress of the U.S.Climate Change Science Program:Methods

and Preliminary Results (NRC, 2007a), and Analysis of Global

Change Assessments:Lessons Learned (NRC, 2007b) from the

Committee on Strategic Advice on the U.S. Climate

Change Science Program. CCSP also seeks stakeholder

and community engagement and guidance through

workshops, listening sessions, and public comment

periods for key documents.

CCSP conducts long-term planning to determine the

program’s strategic directions.The last strategic planning

effort resulted in the development of CCSP’s 2003

Strategic Plan, which set the program’s vision and goals

for the period 2003 to 2013. In order to respond to the

rapidly evolving needs of science and society, the program

has now begun a new effort in long-range planning, with

the goal of developing CCSP’s next strategic plan.

The program has appointed an IWG charged with

managing the strategic planning process.This group meets

regularly to move toward the development of a new longterm strategic plan that will serve as the successor to the

2003 document.Among the tasks undertaken by this group

are to assess progress, to identify areas of potentially

greater emphasis for the future, to develop mechanisms

for engaging a wide range of stakeholders and for

informing planning through internal processes, and

to begin to identify the building blocks that will

comprise the new strategic plan. CCSP

historically has utilized, and will continue

to utilize, multiple inputs to inform its

planning process:

• Stakeholder Input: CCSP will

continue to utilize scientific

advisory groups that support

individual agencies, science

steering groups organized to

coordinate different CCSP

research elements, and open

dialog with the domestic and

international scientific and user

communities interested in global

change issues. CCSP also conducts

stakeholder workshops on specific

topics [e.g., the 2005Workshop on

Decision Support (CCSP, 2005)].As

discussed in Section I, CCSP sees an immediate

need for, and therefore intends to engage with, a

broader range of more diverse consumers of

CCSP’s science than in the past, and to develop

dialog and partnerships with a wide variety of

stakeholders.

• The National Research Council: CCSP funds an

NRC committee to provide independent, highlevel, integrated advice on the strategy and

evolution of the program.The committee’s first

report (NRC, 2007a) included findings and

recommendations on the process for evaluating

progress toward the five CCSP goals and a

preliminary assessment of progress to date.The

second report will identify priorities to guide the

future evolution of the program in the context of

established scientific and societal objectives. CCSP

also relies on other NRC committees that focus on

particular components of climate science and the

climate system (e.g., NRC, 1999, 2000, 2001a,b;

and the Climate Research Committee and the

Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global

Change) to help shape CCSP’s programmatic

evolution and prioritization. For example, the

NRC recently produced a report on global change

assessments at the request of CCSP

(NRC, 2007b).

9

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
• International Collaboration and Partnerships:

CCSP participates in and supports a wide range of

international cooperative activities related to

global change and climate change research,

includingWMO, UNEP, theWorld Climate

Research Programme (WCRP), the International

Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the

Global Earth Observations System of Systems

(GEOSS), and relies on these activities to assist in

providing global context to its efforts. By

developing both conceptual and research

frameworks, international research programs

provide models that aid U.S. program managers in

planning and coordinating their efforts, and help

to leverage research and synthesis opportunities.

• Climate Change Assessments: CCSP supports and

contributes to the IPCC assessment process as

well as producing its own series of synthesis and

assessment products. CCSP also participates in

other assessments, including the development of a

scientific assessment as required by the GCRA in

parallel with this Revised Research Plan, and

related activities that provide input to CCSP’s ongoing program development.The results of these

syntheses help to define the program’s future

directions by discussing knowledge gained as

well as identifying crucial knowledge gaps and

assessments of impacts, risks, and opportunities.

At the highest conceptual level, CCSP’s five strategic

goals provide focus and facilitate programmatic integration

across CCSP’s 13 agencies and departments.These goals

together with CCSP’s four core approaches encapsulate

the full range of climate-related issues, from basic

observations, monitoring, and research to improve

process understanding, modeling, and forecasting,

vulnerability analyses, and other “human dimensions” of

climate change, to decision support and communication

of results and impacts.The program’s detailed objectives,

milestones, products, and payoffs, as articulated in the

2003 CCSP Strategic Plan, serve as foci for the

implementation and integration of CCSP’s overarching

goals by its IWGs, which are organized around the

program’s identified research elements and cross-cutting

elements. CCSP-participating agencies and departments

coordinate their work through these discipline-related

‘research elements,’ which together support scientific

observations and research across the gamut of

interconnected issues of climate and global change.The

four cross-cutting elements – observations and monitoring,

decision support, communications, and international

activities – address issues pertinent to all research

elements.

10

Climate Change Science Program Planning
III Highlights of

Progress: 2003 to 2007
III. Highlights of

Progress: 2003 to 2007

Significant progress has been made in many areas of climate

change research, as evidenced by the development of

recent syntheses including the IPCC Fourth Assessment

(IPCC, 2007a,b,c) and CCSP’s synthesis and assessment

products. Both of these efforts required the existence of

relatively mature scientific research, substantial archives

of environmental data, and robust modeling capabilities, a

substantial portion of which were developed under CCSP

auspices. Scientific progress has been substantial.The

accomplishments of the past 4 years have led not just to

advancement of scientific knowledge, but just as importantly,

to the evolution and refinement of the science questions

and approaches needed for current and future global

change research, and to the improved delivery of robust

scientific information for decisions and response strategies.

Substantive progress in CCSP Strategic Goals 1

through 3 is a required component of progress in many

areas associated with Goals 4 and 5, since effective

vulnerability analyses, human dimensions research, and

decision support require reliable basic data, a clear

understanding of processes, and projections whose

uncertainties are well characterized. Key progress during

2003 to 2007 reflects this, with the greatest

accomplishments showing in Goals 1, 2, and 3. In the

coming years, CCSP will have both the need and the

opportunity to advance research in Goals 4 and 5, while

Goals 1 through 3 will continue to be important in order

to provide a solid scientific foundation for breakthroughs

in key areas of uncertainty and ever greater refinement of

models, leading to better predictive capabilities and more

robust tools for scientifically sound decision support,

assessment of vulnerabilities, and management of risks.

What follows here is a brief, goal-by-goal summary of

key accomplishments and progress by CCSP and its

participating agencies. CCSP studies include those that

are funded and reported by participating agencies either

singly or jointly as part of their contribution to the

program. More specific and detailed information on these

accomplishments can be found in each issue of CCSP’s

annual report to Congress.The reader should note that the

accomplishments discussed are examples and highlights

only; they do not capture the full breadth and scope of

CCSP research.They represent important progress on

key questions, but in most cases they do not purport to be

the definitive answers to these questions. Rather, these

individual studies are part of the larger body of research

that provides insights into important processes and that

results in the evaluation, refinement, and evolution of both

results and questions by the larger scientific community,

which in turn moves science forward.

Goal 1:Improve knowledge of the

Earth’s past and present climate and

environment,including its natural

variability,and improve

understanding of the causes of

observed variability and change.

CCSP research requires a solid foundation of scientific

observations, long-term monitoring data, and analyses of

these data to provide a better understanding of Earth

system processes, to understand Earth’s past and present

climate and the magnitude and extent of climate variability

and change, and to test and to improve models.Analyses

of collected observations and monitoring data underpin

all aspects of climate system study. In the past few years,

key analyses of collected data have provided important

insights into understanding the nature and variability of

the Earth system.

One example of a body of work with profound impact

is the progress made in understanding temperature and

moisture changes at continental scales, and in understanding

the magnitude of climate change at high latitudes in the

Arctic andAntarctic regions of Earth.Analysis of temperature

and moisture records together with satellite images and

ground-based measurements for North America and

Europe show that both continents are experiencing earlier

transitions from winter to summer, and that warmer

spring temperatures are causing earlier spring green-up of

vegetation and contributing to longer growing seasons

overall (Dirmeyer and Brubaker, 2006). Observations in

the western United States indicate that the annual peak in

spring river runoff is occurring earlier in the season and is

12
supplying less water during the growing season (Mote et al.,

2005). Satellite, airborne, and ground-based observations

suggest that significant changes are occurring in the mass

balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets that are

inferred to be caused by warming at high latitudes

(Rignot and Kanagaratnam, 2006;Velicogna andWahr,

2006). New satellite-based observations of the polar

regions indicate significant reductions in the volume of

the Greenland Ice Sheet (Velicogna andWahr, 2005),

declining Arctic sea ice cover, and loss of ice mass in

Antarctica despite no measurable change in snowfall over

the last 50 years (Monaghan et al., 2006;Velicogna and

Wahr, 2006).The IPCC Fourth Assessment concludes that

it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic

warming over the past 50 years averaged over each

continent except Antarctica (IPCC, 2007a).

Another key temperature finding comes from the

body of analytical work reported in CCSP Synthesis and

Assessment Product 1.1, TemperatureTrends in the Lower

Atmosphere:Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences

(CCSP, 2006). Previously reported data showing

discrepancies between the amounts of warming near the

surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to

challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality

of human-induced global warming. In these earlier

observations, surface data showed substantial globalaverage warming, while early versions of satellite and

radiosonde data showed little or no warming above the

surface. Errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have

been identified and corrected, resulting in better estimates

of temperature trends. For recent decades, all current

atmospheric data sets now show global-average warming

that is similar to the surface warming.A next step is to use

the current data and recent syntheses to improve climatemodeling results: while these observations are consistent

with the results from climate models at the global scale,

further work is needed to resolve remaining discrepancies

in the tropics.Thus, while these observations and modeling

results have provided increased scientific confidence in

our understanding of observed climatic changes and their

causes, areas of significant work remain.

It is critical to observe and understand variations in

the average state of particular climate parameters like

temperature and precipitation, but it is equally important

to understand natural variability and changes in the

frequency or intensity of extreme events like drought and

unusually wet conditions. CCSP researchers have made

progress in understanding the climate system’s natural

variability. One of the most well-known variability events

is the El Niño phenomenon, which recurs on a time scale

of approximately 2 to 7 years and involves a warming of

the eastern tropical Pacific in combination with changes

in atmospheric circulation. Recent research links decadal

changes in this pattern to droughts and wet conditions

over North America and suggests that a portion of such

decadal changes may be predictable (Seager et al., 2005).

Additional recent accomplishments on the topic of

drought used the geologic record to reconstruct drought

history over the past millennium, using proxy records

derived from tree rings and sediment cores (Cook et al.,

2004).This research indicates that recent U.S. droughts in

the west, while severe enough to cause substantial

impacts to society, are relatively minor in comparison to

naturally occurring droughts over the past 1,000 years.

Interpreting changes in the characteristics of extreme

events remains one of CCSP’s ongoing research frontiers.

Additional work on atmospheric conditions provided

an improved understanding of climate influences on ozone

distribution. Using satellite measurements corroborated

by surface measurements, a recent study found increases

in ozone in the Antarctic middle stratosphere during

Southern Hemisphere summer (December). Model

simulations showed that these increases were caused by the

delayed transition from dynamic springtime conditions to

more stable summer conditions due to the springtime

ozone hole.The lengthening of less-stable springtime

dynamics forces the descent of ozone-rich air from higher

levels of the atmosphere to the lower mid-stratosphere

(about 30 km altitude).The same study also found that

future greenhouse gas increases would produce similar

ozone increases (Stolarski et al., 2006).Another study

found that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide

(CO2) caused a strengthening of the atmospheric

circulation responsible for the global distribution of

ozone.The results of this study indicate that total ozone

will increase at high latitudes of the Northern and Southern

Hemispheres, and decrease in the tropics (Jiang et al.,

2007). Long-term data sets have been developed to

provide information sufficient to test the skill of general

circulation models at predicting radiative heating and

cloud feedbacks (Mace, 2006a,b).The accuracy of

measurements has been greatly improved to better

evaluate model simulations (Turner, 2007;Turner et al.,

2007).

Oceans, too, are experiencing change. Declines in

Arctic sea ice have been observed both in situ and by

satellites. Observations of global sea-level increases are

consistent with the declining volume of land ice as well as

13

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
observations of ocean warming, which contributes to sealevel rise by expanding ocean volume. Observations of

the North Atlantic indicate a reduction in salinity (Curry

and Mauritzen, 2005), which climate system models

indicate may lead to a slowdown of the large-scale ocean

circulation that transports heat to high-latitude regions

(Stouffer et al., 2006a). Global-scale observations of

ocean temperature indicate a pattern of warming that is

generally consistent with climate model projections of

greenhouse warming (Barnett et al., 2005). In the past

decade, measurements from a variety of platforms,

including satellites and ocean buoys, show warming in the

top layers of the ocean, with strong evidence that the

warming is due to increases in human-produced greenhouse

gases (IPCC, 2007a).These data are significant because

ocean heat storage is the largest component of the Earth’s

climate system for storing the energy imbalance between

the sources and sinks of thermal energy. Even though the

methods of observations are quite different, the fact that

the magnitude and annual variability of the satellitederived energy imbalance and the ocean heat storage

match lends confidence to the interpretation of the

underlying climate process.

The global ocean is a large and important carbon

reservoir that regulates the uptake, storage, and release of

CO2, methane, and other climate-relevant chemical

species to the atmosphere.The future biogeochemical

behavior of this reservoir is quite uncertain because of the

potential anthropogenic impacts on many ocean

processes, in particular the impact of ocean circulation on

carbon exchange and the impact of ocean acidification on

the physiology, function, and structure of the complex

and diverse ocean ecosystem. CCSP research has found

that the ocean’s ability to remove more CO2 from the

atmosphere will be impaired with warmer temperatures.

Both the absorption of anthropogenic CO2 and the

deposition of acid rain from fossil fuel and agricultural

emissions can contribute to the acidification of the global

ocean, altering surface seawater acidity and inorganic

carbon storage. Researchers have compared these inputs

and concluded that (1) acid rain contributes a minor

amount (2%) of acidity compared to the ocean uptake of

anthropogenic CO2, although this value likely represents

an upper limit, and (2) the decrease in surface alkalinity

from acid rain drives a net air-sea release of CO2,

reducing surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC).Total

alkalinity and DIC changes mostly offset each other,

resulting in a small increase in surface acidity.Additional

impacts arise from atmospheric nitrogen deposition,

leading to elevated primary production and biological

drawdown of DIC that in some places reverses the sign of

the surface acidity and air-sea CO2 exchange. On a global

scale, the alterations in surface water chemistry from

anthropogenic nitrogen and sulfur deposition are a few

percent of the acidification, although the impacts are

more substantial in coastal waters, where the ecosystem

responses to ocean acidification could have the most

severe implications for humans (Bates and Peters, 2007;

Doney et al., 2007).

Goal 2:Improve quantification of

the forces bringing about changes in

the Earth’s climate and related

systems.

It is essential to understand the factors responsible for

global environmental change in order to make long-term

climate projections.These forcing factors include changing

levels of greenhouse gases, land-cover changes, airborne

dust and other particles (aerosols), and solar variability.

CCSP research gives considerable attention to identifying

and quantifying the effects of these forcing factors, and to

understanding the ways in which factors cause feedbacks

among Earth systems.As in the previous goal, the following

examples of progress toward CCSP Goal 2 result from

the integrated focus of multiple CCSP research elements.

Climate and the global carbon cycle are a tightly coupled

system where changes in climate affect the transfer of

atmospheric CO2 to the terrestrial biosphere and the

ocean, and vice versa.An important conclusion of recent

carbon cycle research is that future warming is likely to

lead to a further decrease in the efficiencies of land and

ocean in absorbing excess CO2, resulting in more of the

emitted CO2 remaining in the atmosphere (i.e., a positive

feedback) (Fung et al., 2005).This assessment is based on

advances in U.S. and global carbon observations and

improvements in carbon cycle models. Controlled

experiments on carbon uptake and release in ecosystems

are one means of improving our understanding of carbon

cycle dynamics, which can contribute to corresponding

carbon cycle model improvements. For example,

14

Highlights of Progress: 2003 to 2007
Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment experiments, in

which CO2 is purposely injected into the air around a

small plot of land, have led to the understanding that the

mass of carbon in ecosystems initially tends to increase

when exposed to increased levels of CO2 (Jastrow et al.,

2005; Norby et al., 2005).This increase may be limited

by the availability of nutrients, although a comprehensive

meta-analysis indicates that nitrogen supply generally

keeps pace with plant demands in natural systems (Luo

et al., 2006). Other controlled experiments in which

ecosystems are purposely warmed generally indicate

greater ecosystem CO2 release with higher temperatures.

However, there are still significant uncertainties associated

with the biospheric response to climate change, particularly

with respect to the complex and dynamic nature of

ecosystems and their interactions with climate and the

hydrologic cycle.

CCSP has also made significant advances in

understanding the processes responsible for the production

and destruction of other greenhouse gases, including

methane and nitrous oxide. For example, recent analyses

suggest that approximately 60% of all methane emissions

from wetlands may occur in the tropics (Melack et al.,

2004). In polar regions, recent studies have elucidated

processes by which carbon, currently trapped either as

organic matter or methane hydrates in the permafrost

(frozen soil), is released to the atmosphere (Zimov et al.,

2006).Warming increases these releases and can create an

amplifying feedback loop of climate forcing.A new longterm, global reference for greenhouse gas stabilization

scenarios and an evaluation of the process by which

scenarios are developed and used was produced in 2007.

This publication, Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1,

consists of two parts. Part A, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas

Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations, uses computerbased scenarios to evaluate four alternative stabilization

levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the

implications for energy and the economy of achieving

each level. Part A includes stabilization scenarios for six

primary anthropogenic greenhouse gases – CO2, nitrous

oxide, methane, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons,

and sulfur hexafluoride – and uses updated economic and

technological data and new tools for scenario development.

Although these scenarios should not be considered

definitive predictions of future events, they provide

valuable insights for decisionmakers. Part B, Global

Change Scenarios:Their Development and Use, examines how

scenarios have been developed and used in global climate

change applications, evaluates the effectiveness of current

scenarios, and recommends ways to make future scenarios

more useful. Part B of the report concludes that scenarios

can support decisionmaking by providing insights regarding

key uncertainties, including future emissions and climate

as well as other environmental and economic conditions.

With mounting concern that human activity is altering

our environment, not just at the surface, but also in the

extended atmosphere, it becomes increasingly important

to improve our knowledge of all natural forcings on

Earth. Over the past several centuries and longer term,

the two main natural forcings have been solar variability

(warming and cooling) and volcanic activity (cooling).

The Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE)

mission has provided new insights on the solar forcing with

SORCE making the most accurate measurements of the

total solar irradiance (TSI) and the first daily observations

of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the visible and near

infrared. During the past 11-year solar cycle, the Sun’s

increased brightness at solar maximum warmed the

Earth’s atmosphere by about 0.1°C in the 10 km nearest

to the surface (the troposphere), 1°C near 50 km in altitude

(at the top of the stratosphere), and 400°C at an altitude

of 500 km in the thermosphere. Currently the Sun is at

solar minimum, and theTSI observations indicate that the

solar brightness has decreased by about 0.02% over the

past decade (Woods and Lean, 2007).This result suggests

that the solar forcing could reduce slightly the larger

global warming trend due to human-induced greenhouse

gases (e.g., burning of fossil fuels). Continued observations

of the solar irradiance, such as by SORCE, are key to

understanding the long-term solar changes that provide a

natural forcing to climate change.

One of the largest uncertainties in projections of

potential future climate change is the role of aerosols.

Recent research has reduced some of this uncertainty, in

part through efforts made possible by CCSP. In the first

phase of preparing the synthesis and assessment report

that deals with aerosol properties and their impacts on

climate, a comprehensive paper has been published that

reviews recent progress in characterizing aerosols and

assessing their direct effect on climate change (Yu et al.,

2006).This work, as well as other studies that will be

published in 2008 as part of CCSP Synthesis andAssessment

Product 2.3, Aerosol Properties andTheir Impacts on Climate,

served as a major resource in the preparation of the IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report.

A diverse array of laboratory studies, field experiments,

and modeling efforts have better defined aerosol formation

processes, their properties, and their abundances.These

15

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
studies involved multiple agencies, universities, observation

platforms, and field teams deployed in multiple locations

including Mexico City, the Gulf of Mexico, the Sahara,

and other locations.Among the results of these activities

are measurements that show a higher than expected

formation of organic aerosols within the atmosphere, which

could potentially have a cooling effect; demonstration of the

influence of aging and composition on aerosol properties,

and the ubiquity of absorbing (warming) aerosols and

black carbon in the atmosphere; and the first well-sampled

direct evaluations of the effects of a major Saharan dust

storm on solar and thermal radiation across the atmosphere,

which in turn has provided a way for researchers to test

their understanding of how dust affects the radiant energy

budget of the atmospheric column.This information is a

key component in computer models that simulate both

regional and global weather and climate.Taken together,

the information resulting from these activities will enable

more accurate calculation of aerosol influences on climate

through their effects on absorption and scattering of light,

as well as the indirect effect of aerosols through the

alteration of clouds (both water and ice).This in turn will

lead to more accurate model estimates of the climatic role

of aerosols and a better understanding of radiative forcing

of climate change by lower-atmosphere ozone and aerosols,

which will ultimately lead to improved climate projections.

Land use and land cover affect the global climate system

through biogeophysical, biogeochemical, and energy

exchange processes.Variations in these processes due to

land-use and land-cover change in turn affect local,

regional, and global climate patterns. Key processes

include uptake and release of greenhouse gases by the

terrestrial biosphere through photosynthesis, respiration,

and evapotranspiration; the release of aerosols and

particulates from surface land-cover perturbations;

variations in the exchange of sensible heat between the

surface and atmosphere due to land-cover changes;

variations in absorption and reflectance of radiation as

land-cover changes affect surface reflectance; and surface

roughness effects on atmospheric momentum that are

land cover dependent. Human activity can and does alter

many of these processes and attributes, but weather and

climate, as well as geological and other natural processes,

are also important. For example, land-cover changes such

as deforestation and forest fires alter ecosystems and

release CO2, methane, carbon monoxide, and aerosols to

the atmosphere.They also change the reflectivity of the

land surface, which in turn determines how much of the

Sun’s energy is absorbed and thus available as heat, while

vegetation transpiration and surface hydrology determine

how this energy is partitioned into latent and sensible heat

fluxes.At the same time, vegetation and urban structure

determine surface roughness and thus air momentum and

heat transport.

Examples of important research progress in

understanding these factors and forcings include studies on

the effects of urbanization and agricultural development

on air temperature, and on the remote assessment of the

effects of land-use variables linked to climate forcings in

the midwestern United States and in Central America. For

instance, researchers exploring the effects of urbanization

and agriculture on regional climate found that irrigated

agriculture in California tended to lower average and

maximum near-surface air temperatures, while conversion

of natural vegetation to urban areas tended to increase

near-surface air temperatures.The surface temperature

changes and their associated effects on the atmosphere

also caused changes in the regional airflow. Overall, it was

found that conversion of natural vegetation to irrigated

agriculture has likely had a larger effect on the climate of

California than urban growth, but increased conversion of

irrigated land to urban/suburban development could

alter this conclusion (Kueppers et al., 2007).

Similarly, crop type, yield, and land management affect

the balance of greenhouse gas fluxes from land cover in

the midwestern United States.The magnitude of surface

changes such as tillage intensity affects residue cover and

thus the moisture and radiation energy balances at the land

surface through changes in evaporation and reflectance.

However, these distinctions are difficult to assess across

landscapes. Scientists working in Iowa have developed a

method using LandsatThematic Mapper and EO-1

Hyperion imaging spectrometer data to classify tillage

intensity in cropland (Daughtry et al., 2006).A

methodology has also been developed for observing

changes in tropical forest cover over large areas using data

with high temporal frequency from coarse-resolution

satellite imagery. Proportional forest cover change is

estimated from multi-spectral, multi-temporal Moderateresolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data that

are transformed to optimize the spectral detection of

vegetation changes.This methodology has been applied

using MODIS data in Central America. Landsat data are

also used to record higher detail changes in forest cover in

Central America.This work describes the distinct patterns

of change from year to year due to land-cover changes

resulting from forest clearing, regeneration, and changes in

climate. It was found that the ability to detect forest cover

16

Highlights of Progress: 2003 to 2007
change patterns using this methodology was relatively

independent of the spatial resolution of the data.Associated

model simulations indicated that the best metrics for

detecting tropical forest clearing and regeneration are the

shortwave infrared information from the MODIS data at

500-m resolution. Errors were found to range from 7 to

11% across the time periods of analysis (Hayes and

Cohen, 2007).

Another important recent advance is the improved

understanding of carbon cycling.A key component of the

Nation’s integrated carbon cycle research is the North

American Carbon Program (NACP), the central objective

of which is to measure and understand the sources and

sinks of CO2, methane, and carbon monoxide in North

America and in adjacent ocean regions.Work conducted

by NACP researchers and others has provided improved

estimates of the amount of carbon being sequestered in

North America and globally, and in particular, how the

rate of carbon uptake is changing in all ecosystems.These

estimates are made through the innovative combination

of carbon cycle models and observations of carbon

concentrations and isotopes (Fung et al., 2005).

An evaluation of North American carbon sources

and sinks was generated as part of CCSP’s Synthesis and

Assessment Product 2.2, The First State of the Carbon Cycle

Report (SOCCR):North American Carbon Budget and Implications

for the Global Carbon Cycle.A key finding of this report is

that, in 2003, North American terrestrial carbon sinks

removed approximately 520 million metric tons of carbon

per year (±50% with 95% confidence) from the

atmosphere, which is equivalent to approximately 30%

of North American fossil fuel emissions in 2003.

Approximately 50% of the sink is due to the regrowth of

forests in the United States on former agricultural land

and on forested land recovering from harvest.This sink is

expected to decline.As forests mature, they grow more

slowly and take up less carbon from the atmosphere.The

current source to sink imbalance of more than three to

one (ratio of fossil fuel emissions to net terrestrial carbon

uptake) and the potential trend of increasing sources and

decreasing sinks suggest that addressing imbalances in the

North American carbon budget will likely require actions

focused on reducing fossil fuel emissions. Options focused

on enhancing carbon sinks in soils and vegetation can

contribute as well, but their potential is far from sufficient

to offset current fossil fuel emissions.Work of this nature

is important for assessing the efficacy of natural carbon

uptake, as well as the potential for purposeful carbon

capture in managed ecosystems (CCSP, 2007a).

Observations of ocean carbon are important for

addressing uncertainties associated with the global carbon

budget. New global scale ocean carbon analyses indicate

increasing carbon concentrations in ocean water. In addition

to confirming the oceans as a significant carbon sink, this

information is also being used to estimate the increase in

ocean acidity caused by increasing amounts of dissolved CO2

and the potentially deleterious consequences for marine

ecosystems (Orr et al., 2005). Recent measurements of

carbon sedimentation along continental shelves have shown

these regions to be responsible for a significant fraction of

oceanic carbon uptake (Muller-Karger et al., 2005).

Recent climate warming has been particularly intense

in boreal and Arctic regions, leading to concern that

increasing air temperature in these ecosystems may

indirectly increase the incidence of forest fires. Longer

growing seasons lead to increased fire fuel loads, and

increased temperatures can lead to drier conditions. In turn,

fire provides rapid release of carbon and produces aerosols

that affect atmospheric conditions. Beyond the emission

of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, understanding the

consequences of large-scale fires for climate is challenging

due to the many additional ways in which they influence

the atmosphere and surface.A recent study in Alaska found

that there was intensification in the climate warming in the

first year after a major fire but a slight decrease in the

local climate warming when averaged over the 80 years of

the study.The long-term result, which was primarily due

to plant regrowth increasing the summer reflectivity of

the burned surface, appeared to be more significant than

the fire-emitted greenhouse gases (Randerson et al., 2006).

The study results suggest that possible future increases in

wildfire in some parts of the boreal zone of Alaska may

have different feedbacks to global warming than

previously thought.

Scientists are also studying the possibility that

increased permafrost thawing due to warming in Arctic

regions could cause the release of substantial amounts of

carbon long held in the frozen tundra.There appear to be

two potential mechanisms for the carbon to reach the

atmosphere: drainage of the carbon-rich river flow into

the Arctic Ocean with subsequent emission, and direct

respiration or recycling of the newly released carbon.

Measurements made in theYukon River Basin in northern

Canada have shown that the latter process predominates

(Guo and Macdonald, 2006).These results have significance

for understanding both the movement of carbon through

Arctic landscapes, and the potential effects of that carbon

on ecosystems and the atmosphere.

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REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
CCSP’s interdisciplinary research on the carbon cycle

has also produced a set of analyses using long-term

observations of several young and mature forests. Results

from this work show that forest carbon storage has been

increasing in these ecosystems and is not in balance with

the carbon lost by respiration and decay.This result is

contrary to the contemporary concept of near balance

of carbon sources and sinks in mature forests (Zhou et

al., 2006).The gain in forest carbon is typical of

findings from U.S.-based large-scale networks, as well

as observations made in mature forests in China.

Evidence is therefore mounting that these sinks for

atmospheric CO2 offer significant potential for

modulating the rate of atmospheric CO2 increase

(Urbanski et al., 2007).

Goal 3:Reduce uncertainty in

projections of how the Earth’s

climate and related systems may

change in the future.

Uncertainty provides a measure of the confidence that can

be placed in forecasts of future climate and related Earth

systems. Reducing uncertainty is crucial to providing

decisionmakers with useful, reliable tools for assessing

strategies for adaptation, mitigation, and other forms of

risk reduction. However, the wording of the goal is incomplete: “reducing uncertainty” is only part of the story.

Improving the projections themselves and understanding

both the nature and implications of uncertainties are

equally important, as noted in the NRC Metrics report

(NRC, 2005).The thrust of this goal is therefore to

improve projections, and to characterize their uncertainty,

in order to improve the utility of projections of how the

Earth’s climate and related systems may change in the

future in response to natural and human-induced forcings.

CCSP has significantly advanced the ability to estimate

future Earth system conditions at time scales ranging

from months to centuries and at spatial scales ranging

from regional to global.The primary tools for Earth

system prediction and projection are computer models

that reflect the best available knowledge of Earth system

processes. Reducing uncertainty requires continual

integration of observations and modeling across the full

range of climate and Earth systems research.

When recent model simulations of the climate of the

past 100 years are compared to observations, the results

generally indicate improvements over previous generations

of models, including the ability to represent weather

systems, climate variability (e.g., monsoons, El Niño),

ocean processes (e.g., the Gulf Stream), surface hydrology,

and other Earth system processes, components, and

dynamics (Collins et al., 2006; Schmidt et al., 2006).

One of the ways in which these models have advanced is

through improvements in the representation of the

processes responsible for key Earth system feedbacks

such as those associated with water vapor, clouds, sea ice,

and the carbon cycle (Delworth et al., 2006; Gnanadesikan

et al., 2006;Wittenberg et al., 2006).A significant

improvement in representing the vertical cloud structure

in mixed-phase clouds in climate models was achieved by

explicitly treating ice formation and liquid conversion to

ice via the Bergeron-Findeisen process (Liu et al., 2007).

For a model to produce a realistic climate projection,

it must include realistic representations of physical

parameters such as cloudiness, precipitation, and solar

spectral irradiance. Understanding the influence and

feedbacks of clouds on climate has proven to be a

challenging task for scientists worldwide, but progress is

being made. Recent innovative studies using newly

developed, detailed models of cloud processes coupled with

a global climate model provide results that are significantly

more consistent with observations than traditional cloudmodeling techniques (Ovtchinnikov et al., 2006).The

incorporation of improved cloud representation in

climate models is expected to reduce the uncertainty in

predictions of the global and regional water cycle and

surface climate.

Clouds are a major component in the global

reflectance of sunlight, and energy from the sun not

reflected back to space provides the driving energy to

Earth’s weather and climate systems.Year-to-year

variability in the global reflectance is dominated by the

variability of cloudiness in the tropics; but, on the other

hand, scientists have recently found little change in the

year-to-year variability of reflectance at middle and high

latitudes despite decreases in the highly reflective snow

and sea ice cover.This result appears to be due to the

compensating increase in cloud cover balancing the

decreasing surface-level reflectance (Loeb et al., 2006).

Clouds continue to provide the largest source of

uncertainty in model estimates of climate sensitivity,

18

Highlights of Progress: 2003 to 2007
although a recent study finds evidence that, in most climate

models used in the IPCC FourthAssessment Report, clouds

provide a positive feedback (Soden and Held, 2006).

The magnitude of future warming will be strongly

influenced by both the extent to which atmospheric

water vapor concentration increases in response to an

initial warming caused by increases in CO2 and other

greenhouse gases and the extent to which increasing

water vapor affects clouds and their radiative properties.

An accurate representation of this feedback in climate

models is critical for making long-term climate projections.

Recent innovative analyses have shown that water vapor

increases in the upper atmosphere measured by satellites

and balloon-borne sensors are generally consistent with

state-of-the-art climate model simulations, lending

credence to the ability of current models to represent the

water vapor feedback (Fu and Johanssen, 2005).

Analyses of climate model simulations generated for the

IPCC Fourth Assessment have identified several additional

characteristics of climate change projections common to

all of the models (Held and Soden, 2006). Examples of

these robust model projections include strong subtropical

drying, weakening of large-scale tropical atmospheric

motions, and expansion of the poleward upper atmospheric wind pattern known as the Hadley circulation. In

another study, several models were used to investigate the

effects of the freshwater input from melting ice and glaciers on the currents in the North Atlantic (Stouffer et al.,

2006a).These currents are important due to their largescale transport of heat.The study concluded that, in

response to expected levels of freshwater input in the

northern North Atlantic, the average modeled largescale deep ocean current weakens by about 30% by the

end of the century.All models simulate some weakening

of this deep circulation, but no model simulates a

complete shutdown.

CCSP researchers also use the geological record to

test and apply climate models, particularly in cases where

that knowledge has a bearing on climate change processes

relevant to current society. For example, the mid-Pliocene

provides an unequaled paleoclimatic laboratory to test the

sensitivity of the physical models that we rely upon for

estimating the magnitude and spatial variability of future

warming. Estimates of mid-Pliocene (~3.0 million years

ago) global warming suggest that temperatures were 2°C

greater than today (Haywood andValdes, 2004; Dowsett

et al., 2005).This level of warming is within the range of

the IPCC estimates of global temperature increases for

the 21st century, and no other time period in the past

3 million years approaches this level of warming. Scientists

have identified many of the primary forcing mechanisms

that contribute to the current global warming, but there

is uncertainty about the relative impact of each forcing

and associated feedbacks.The mid-Pliocene presents the

reverse situation: global data sets reveal the mature state

of a warmer world, but the forcings that led to Pliocene

warming are only partially identified.Analysis of data sets

compiled by the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and

Synoptic Mapping group (PRISM) suggests that a

combination of increased greenhouse gases and increased

ocean heat transports acted concurrently through

undetermined feedback relationships (Dowsett et al.,

2005; Haywood et al., 2005, Chandler et al., 2008).To

fill in the picture, data are just beginning to emerge that

describe the deep ocean state during the Pliocene (Cronin

et al., 2005). Understanding the climate distribution and

forcing for the Pliocene period may help improve

predictions of the likely response to increased atmospheric

CO2 in the future, including the ultimate role of the

ocean circulation in a globally warmer world.

The CCSP modeling strategy utilizes a multi-tiered

approach in which new and improved Earth system submodels (e.g., clouds, ecosystem dynamics, sea ice) are

developed and tested by individual researchers or small

research teams.When significant improvements in these

sub-models arise, they are integrated as appropriate into

high-end Earth system models.A result of these ongoing

efforts is a set of U.S. models that expand beyond earlier

atmosphere-ocean models to include relatively sophisticated

representations of land-surface hydrology, sea ice,

ecosystems, and atmospheric chemistry. U.S. Earth

system modeling centers have used variations of these

models to produce ensembles of projections that are

providing important new perspectives on potential future

climate system change (Meehl et al., 2004a; Stouffer et

al., 2006b).These ensembles are also being used to

characterize the intrinsic uncertainty associated with

potential future climate change.

Because Earth system models are extremely complex

and benefit greatly from input and evaluation by multiple

research teams, several new efforts have been initiated to

enable sharing, testing, and improvement of these models

by diverse groups of researchers (Meehl et al., 2004b,

2005). Many of the recent model simulations referred to

above are now widely available through a new capability

for data archiving and dissemination developed by the

Program for Climate Model Data and Intercomparison

(see <www-pcmdi.llnl.gov>). Large strides have been

19

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
made in creating climate model code according to a set of

standards that facilitate exchange of sub-models (e.g., the

Earth System Model Framework, <www.esmf.ucar.edu>),

which enables researchers to readily trace the source of

differences between various models and between models

and observations.

The projections made by CCSP research pertain not

just to physical climate, but also to other components of

the Earth system, including atmospheric chemistry.

Continuing research has provided an estimate that the

recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole will occur

approximately 10 to 20 years later than the previous

estimate of 2050 (Newman et al., 2006).As a result of the

Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the use of ozonedepleting substances (ODS) has been greatly reduced.

Improved understanding of atmospheric dynamics now

gives 2001 as a better estimate of when the ODS peak

occurred in the Antarctic stratosphere.This date is later

than had been estimated previously and results in a longer

projected time scale for recovery back to pre-1980

(unperturbed) levels of ODS.

Goal 4:Understand the sensitivity

and adaptability of different

natural and managed ecosystems

and human systems to climate and

related global changes.

Goal 4 is an area of need and opportunity for CCSP over

the coming years, in keeping with the increased availability

of results from Goals 1 through 3 as inputs. Significant

advances have been made in understanding the potential

impacts of climate change, and in the improvement of

methodologies as new information becomes available.

CCSP research typically uses many different sources of

information, including analyses of paleoclimate data,

direct monitoring and observations, process studies, and

model-based projections. Increasingly, research also

accounts for the dynamic nature of the response of

human and natural systems to climate change.

Research to understand ecosystem and human system

sensitivity and adaptability encompasses and integrates a

wide range of potential impacts on societal needs such as

water, human health, and agriculture, as well as potential

impacts on natural terrestrial and marine ecosystems.This

integration is exemplified by the development of several

of CCSP’s synthesis and assessment products (SAPs; see

Appendix 1 for SAP titles and brief descriptions).These

products address a range of issues including sensitivity of

coastal areas to sea-level rise; effects and impacts of climate

change on agriculture, energy, transportation, and human

health and welfare; and thresholds of change and adaptation

options for ecosystems and resource sectors.

The potential implications of sea-level rise point to

the need to account for a wide variety of factors when

assessing future impacts. For example, some measures to

protect coastlines may have negative side effects, such as

the potential for wetlands loss when inland barriers are

constructed, preventing the wetlands from migrating inland in response to rising sea level (Cahoon et al., 2006).

Similarly, the adaptability of complex coastal ecosystems

is becoming better understood. For example, studies in a

Chesapeake Bay marsh ecosystem showed that rising sea

level, increasing atmospheric CO2, and high rainfall can

interact and improve the growth of a relatively tall bulrush

at the expense of a hay-like cordgrass that grows in thick

mats (Erickson et al., 2007).The thick cordgrass mats

trap sediment and organic material more effectively than

do the bulrushes, and so bulrush-dominated marshes are

less able to rise in elevation through the addition of

sediments. Such changes in species composition, caused by

interacting global change factors, can therefore influence

the ability of coastal marshes to adapt and keep abreast of

sea-level rise.

Carbon cycle scientific research and modeling are highly

relevant to carbon management needs, as demonstrated by

a recent study that estimated the spatial variability of net

primary production and potential biomass accumulation

over the conterminous United States (Potter et al., 2007).

This study’s model-based predictions indicate a potential

to remove carbon from the atmosphere at a rate of 0.3

GtC yr-1 through afforestation of low-production crop and

rangeland areas.This rate of carbon sequestration could

offset about one-fifth of the annual fossil fuel emissions of

carbon in the United States.Another study (SAP 2.2;

CCSP, 2007a) found that terrestrial ecosystems of North

America are assimilating about 30% of the CO2 emissions

from fossil fuel sources.

Observational and modeling studies of terrestrial

ecosystems indicate a wide variety of changes in which it

appears that climate variations play a significant role. For

20

Highlights of Progress: 2003 to 2007
example, recent evidence indicates a northward expansion

of the ranges of many bird and butterfly species in the

United States corresponding to warming in the region

(Sekercioglu et al., 2004). Satellite and in situ observations

also indicate a trend toward earlier growth of spring

vegetation (Angert et al., 2005). In addition to temperature

and hydrologic changes, the increasing level of atmospheric

CO2 is now thought to play a role in changing ecosystem

distributions and characteristics due to its fertilizing

effect.Agricultural yield models account for this effect,

and project a range of agricultural impacts depending on

the magnitude and nature of future climate change, crop

types, and the types of adaptive measures that are adopted.

Recent research indicates that different strategies than

those currently in use may be required to manage insects,

weeds, and diseases in agricultural systems (Ziska and

Runion, 2006).

Another example of the ecological consequences of

climate change involving insects and affecting adaptability

is the devastation of millions of hectares of western U.S.

and Canadian pines by bark beetles during the warmth

and drought of 2000 to 2004. Recent modeling and

observations reveal that beetles invading northernmost

lodgepole pine trees are now only a few kilometers from

previously pristine jack pine populations (Logan and

Powell, 2007).This may create a pathway for bark beetles

to reach valued pine forests in the eastern United States

and Canada.

CCSP’s integrated approach to understanding the

sensitivity and adaptability of natural ecosystems to climate

change has also been applied in remote, high-latitude

regions in both hemispheres. In the Southern Hemisphere,

theWest Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing some of the

most rapid warming on Earth, which is causing loss of sea

ice and increased snow precipitation. In turn, these

changes are having major contrasting impacts on the

adaptability of different penguin species. For example, in

the vicinity of Anvers Island near theWest Antarctic

Peninsula during the last 3 decades, populations shifted

south, so that local abundance of the ice-dependent and

snow-intolerant Adelie penguins decreased by 65%

(currently about 5,000), while the abundance of

Chinstraps and Gentoos increased by 2,730 and 4,600%

(currently about 300 and 650), respectively (Ducklow et

al., 2007). In the Northern Hemisphere, climate

warming has caused significant declines in total cover and

thickness of sea ice and progressively earlier ice breakup in

some areas.These changes have been linked to increasing

vulnerability of polar bear populations, causing them to

extend their normal fast for longer periods during the

open-water season (ACIA, 2005; Stirling and Parkinson,

2006).

Components of CCSP research funded in part

through the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study program

have explored ecosystem impacts in the open ocean

resulting from climate variability and change as well as

from changes in ocean chemistry and thermal structure.

An example of a chemical impact is the chain of events

causing the oceans to become more acidic due to the

absorption of increasing concentrations of atmospheric

CO2 (Orr et al., 2005). Ocean warming tends to increase

vertical stratification (layering) and thus slow the

overturning of nutrient-rich deep-ocean waters

(Schmittner, 2005). Recent model projections suggest

that increased ocean acidification and increased layering of

the upper ocean due to warming are likely to reduce

plankton production.These model results are supported

by satellite observations indicating significant changes in

photosynthetic plankton concentrations, including

declines in the North Atlantic and Pacific and increases in

the Indian Ocean (Gregg et al., 2003).

In addition to managed ecosystems, CCSP research has

expanded understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability

of a variety of other sectors of societal interest. One of

these is human health, which may be affected directly by

changes in temperature and storm intensity, or indirectly

through changes in distributions of insects or other vectors

that carry pathogens.An example of research in this area

is the effects of climate change on heat waves. Recent

observational and modeling work suggests that the

probability of heat waves such as the one that occurred in

Europe in 2003 has increased significantly, and that future

warming may make heat waves of similar magnitude a

normal summer occurrence within several decades

(Meehl andTebaldi, 2004). Recent research on the societal

dimensions of climate variations has shown that, to be

valuable for human health decisionmaking and other

societal areas of interest, physical climate analyses such as

the aforementioned study of heat waves must be assessed

within a complex fabric of other social and environmental

factors (Poumadere et al., 2005).An example is the

general increase in financial losses due to hurricanes over

the past century, which may be attributable more to

expanding coastal development than to changes in

hurricane characteristics (Pielke et al., 2005). In regions

such as central Africa, where the capacity to adapt to

environmental variations is often relatively low, recent

research has shown strong correlations between

21

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
year-to-year climate variations and malaria outbreaks

(Thomson et al., 2006).

These are a few examples of CCSP’s research examining

the sensitivity and adaptability of human and natural systems

to climate variability and change. It is clear from this

work that climate variations can have both beneficial and

adverse effects on environmental and socioeconomic

systems. However, future projections indicate that the larger

the magnitude and rate of climate change, the more likely

it is that adverse effects will dominate (NRC, 2002).

Goal 5:Explore the uses and identify

the limits of evolving knowledge to

manage risks and opportunities

related to climate variability and

change.

New knowledge emerging from the Nation’s basic research

on global environmental variability and change has created

a number of important opportunities for applying that

knowledge to help decisionmakers make good choices

supported by sound science. Over the past several years,

CCSP has taken three main approaches to explore and

communicate the potential uses and limits of this

knowledge: 1) the development of scientific syntheses

and assessments; 2) supporting and exploring adaptive

management and planning capabilities; and 3) development

of methods to support climate change policy inquiries.

Some key examples of progress are provided below.

The key focus of the program’s assessment activities is

its current suite of 21 synthesis and assessment products,

which are intended to provide current evaluations of the

science foundation for use in informing public debate,

policy, and operational decisions, and for defining and

setting the future direction and priorities of the program.

These reports examine various aspects of climate change

science and impacts on a national, regional, or sectoral

basis as appropriate to each topic.A listing of synthesis

and assessment products is provided in Appendix 1, and

a description of each product and its schedule for

completion can be found at <www.climatescience.gov/

Library/sap/sap-summary.php>.

Another important focus for the program’s synthesis

and assessment activities has been its involvement in the

IPCC and other international assessment activities,

including providing coordination and support to the IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report. IPCC’s major activity is to

prepare at regular intervals comprehensive assessments of

policy-relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic

information appropriate to the understanding of humaninduced climate change, potential impacts of climate

change, and options for mitigation and adaptation. For the

IPCC Fourth Assessment (2007), approximately 120 U.S.

scientists were IPCC authors and 15 Review Editors.The

United States co-chaired and hosted IPCCWorking

Group I, which primarily addressed physical science

aspects of climate change.The United States has also

played significant roles in theWMO/UNEP ozone

assessments (e.g.,WMO, 2003), the Arctic Climate

Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2005), and the Millennium

Ecosystem Assessment (MEA, 2005), among others.

The second of CCSP’s decision support approaches is

the exploration of adaptive management strategies.

Activities under this approach develop and evaluate

options for adjusting to variability and change in climate

and other conditions through‘learning by doing’ and

integrating knowledge with practice.This area of work

grows out of the insight that a key to assessment and

decision support is close and ongoing interaction between

users and producers of information.While this area is less

well developed than some others in CCSP’s portfolio, it is

a strong and integral component of the missions of several

CCSP member agencies, and those agencies provide

extensive stakeholder engagement and decision support

for adaptation, mitigation, and management of risk to

policymakers and land managers at national, regional,

state, and local levels.

As one example of the development of methods to

support climate change policy inquiries, CCSP scientists

developed and documented a‘water supply stress index’

that calculates water shortage risks across the conterminous

United States.The index is based on models and

observations that integrate the effects of climate, land cover,

and current water uses by municipalities and industries on

water supply (Sun et al., 2006).The water supply stress

index and the methods associated with it will be used by

local and regional decisionmakers to quantify the likelihood

of future water shortages under changing climate, water,

and land uses in order to determine adaptation practices.

Incorporation of the subsurface water table into regional

climate models is important, since land-cover changes

22

Highlights of Progress: 2003 to 2007
produce significant effects on the water table and the

hydrologic cycle. Shallow water tables can be either a sink

or source of water to the surface soil depending on the

relative balance of infiltration versus evaporation (Fan et

al., 2007). Recent studies using detailed observations and

regional climate models have confirmed the long-held

anecdotal understanding that the fraction of rainfall that

either recharges groundwater or ends up as streamflow

tends to decrease when the fraction of land devoted to

agriculture increases.This result suggests that intensive

agriculture can amplify surface water stresses, particularly

during drought conditions (Jayawickreme and Hyndman,

2007).

Another example of this work is an ongoing project that

brings together researchers who study climate processes

and their effects on the U.S. Southwest with individuals

and organizations that need climate information to make

informed decisions (Jacobs et al., 2005). Numerous

tangible benefits from this project have helped a wide

variety of decisionmakers, from state and local water

planners to farmers to public health officials. For example,

the project developed a suite of products that make

predictions of water availability months in advance, allowing

water managers to adjust reservoir levels accordingly to

meet the competing demands for this scarce resource.

Yet another example is the combined use of satellitebased observations of fires and moisture conditions together

with seasonal climate forecasts to provide information to

fire managers to help them make early and effective

decisions about the resources they will need to cope with

emerging fires and fire-season dangers. One way in which

this information is communicated is through annual

workshops targeted separately at eastern and western

U.S. fire hazards, which bring together climate scientists

and forecasters with fire managers to produce seasonal

fire outlooks (see <www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/

conferences/NSAW>).There are many other examples

of the exploratory use of seasonal-to-interannual climate

information for decisionmaking both domestically and

internationally.

In addition to CCSP’s work on adaptive management

at seasonal-to-interannual time scales, the program is also

developing valuable information for long-term (decades

to centuries) adaptation issues. One example is the

program’s analyses of ways in which agricultural practices

might be adjusted to take advantage of rising CO2 levels

and to cope with potentially warmer temperatures and

decreased moisture availability. Recent work has shown

that sufficient variability exists within some crop species

to begin selecting for crop varieties that could maintain or

increase yields in a future enhanced-CO2 environment

(Boote et al., 2005).

An example of regional decision support is the work

carried out by the Consortium for Atlantic Regional

Assessment (CARA), which is providing data and tools to

help decisionmakers understand how outcomes of their

decisions could be affected by potential changes in both

climate and land use. On an interactive, user-friendly web

site, CARA has organized data on climate (historical

records and future projections from seven global climate

models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental

variables to help inform local and regional decisionmakers

(see <www.cara.psu.edu>).The CARA tools and tutorials

are designed to help decisionmakers understand the issues

related to land use and climate change by gathering,

organizing, and presenting information for evaluating

alternative mitigation strategies.

A workshop involving scientists and managers, co-led

by several CCSP agencies under the auspices of the U.S.

Coral ReefTask Force, resulted in the publication of

A Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching (Marshall and

Schuttenberg, 2006).The combined results of research

on coral bleaching among state/territorial, Federal,

academic, nongovernmental, and international scientists

concluded that warming sea surface temperatures are a

key factor in mass coral bleaching events.The guide

provides managers with strategies to support the natural

resilience of coral reefs in the face of climatic change.

CCSP’s third decision support approach is to help

inform inquiries related to climate change policy, in part

by using comparative analyses of climate change scenarios.

Several CCSP-participating agencies work extensively

with scenarios and scenario development (for further

information on these activities please see specific agency

narratives in Our Changing Planet, CCSP’s annual report to

Congress). One example is a collaborative effort between

climate scientists and NewYork City water infrastructure

planners that is using regional scale hydrologic scenarios

to inform the long-lasting investments that are being

considered in the modernization of the city’s water supply

system (see <www.ccsr.columbia.edu/cig/taskforce>).

Another example is the application of carbon cycle research

to assess the potential feasibility, magnitude, and

permanence of a variety of different carbon sequestration

options, as noted in the U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan

(Sarmiento et al., 1999).An initial result from this line of

work is the preliminary conclusion that the restoration of

inland wetlands could be a particularly efficient component

23

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
of carbon sequestration in North American prairie lands

(Euliss et al., 2006).

CCSP researchers have also developed new metrics

for estimating greenhouse gas emissions and carbon

sequestration in the agricultural and forestry sectors

(Birdsey, 2006).These sectors can reduce atmospheric

greenhouse gas concentrations by increasing carbon

sequestration in biomass and soils, by reducing fossil fuel

emissions through use of biomass fuels, and by substituting

agricultural and forestry products that require less energy

than other materials to produce.The new metrics are

being used as the basis for reporting greenhouse gas

information from the agricultural and forestry sectors

(see <www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/frntvrgg.html>).

In the area of climate change and human health, a

team of climate and health scientists funded by CCSPparticipating agencies has been conducting interdisciplinary

research on climate variability, climate change, land use, air

quality, and human health in the NewYork Metropolitan

Region.They have developed an integrated modeling

system for assessing potential public health impacts related

to heat stress and ground-level ozone. In particular, they

linked a global climate model to regional climate models

and a regional atmospheric chemistry model to produce

downscaled heat and ozone estimates for the 1990s and

the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under fast- and slowergrowth socioeconomic and climate scenarios and downscaled land-use scenarios.A health risk assessment of

mortality impacts was conducted at the county level with

these multi-model simulations of future environmental

conditions.As part of this effort, more recent research has

focused on providing improved understanding of climate

and health vulnerability for stakeholders in support of

decisionmaking in the NewYork region.This in-depth

climate-health research is providing improved tools for

decisionmakers in the region regarding public health risks

due to potential heat and air quality changes (Kinney et

al., 2006).

CCSP scientists have also been working with the

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and partners

in environmental public health to provide environmental

data products that would be of benefit to the Environmental

Public HealthTracking Network (EPHTN). EPHTN will

establish a national network of local, state, and Federal

public health agencies to track trends in priority noninfectious health effects.This effort is being undertaken as

part of the Health and Environment Linked for Information

Exchange in Atlanta project, and is demonstrating a

process for developing a local environmental public health

tracking network. In a 2006 report, it was found that

augmenting the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Air Quality System observations with National Aeronautics

and Space Administration MODIS-derived PM2.5

(particulate matter that is 2.5 mm or smaller in size)

observations increases the temporal and spatial resolution

of fine particulate estimates.The report also found that

such augmentation also increases the accuracy in estimating

concentrations of an environmental hazard such as PM2.5,

which is important for environmental public health tracking.

High concentrations of PM2.5 are associated with adverse

health reactions (e.g., respiratory and cardiovascular

problems) (Rosen et al., 2006).

Another important way in which CCSP is helping to

inform climate change policy inquiries is through integrated

assessment modeling, which considers the social and

economic factors that may lead to climate change (e.g.,

greenhouse gas emissions) and the resultant effects of

those activities on the Earth system and human welfare.

These models are useful for considering the costs and

effects of various policy options. One important result of

this work suggests that reducing emissions of greenhouse

gases other than CO2 could be an economically efficient

first step in reducing the overall atmospheric burden of

greenhouse gases (Hansen and Sato, 2004).

These examples collectively provide a sketch of the

progress CCSP has made toward its goals; additional

information on these items and others can be found in

CCSP’s annual report to Congress.While these

accomplishments, taken together, represent significant

progress in climate change science and constitute a

substantial portfolio of work, many questions remain to

be answered within each of CCSP’s strategic goals. In

addition, the pertinent research questions have evolved in

keeping with information gathered and knowledge

gained, and the changing needs of society.The remainder

of this Revised Research Plan provides a discussion of

these questions and the plans that CCSP envisions as a

means to answer them.

24

Highlights of Progress: 2003 to 2007
IV Emerging Priorities

for the Climate

Change Science

Program
IV. Emerging

Priorities for the

Climate Change

Science Program

Any scientific research program must evolve over time

based on what has been learned during earlier periods,

and CCSP is no exception.This is particularly true for an

Earth science-related program, in which the past several

years have brought dramatic increases in knowledge;

significant advances in the length and quality of

observational data sets (including more comprehensive

observations of climatic phenomena than were previously

possible); improvements in the scope, resolution, and

quality of models; significant advancements in computing

capabilities for use in implementing more complex and

higher resolution climate and Earth system models; and

the initiation of several major observational efforts that have

only now begun to yield results for integrated scientific

study, or will appear shortly in the near future.

One of the most significant advancements of recent

years is that ongoing monitoring of key Earth systems and

analysis of records extending back through time (including

paleoclimate information gleaned from studies of geologic

materials and other climate proxies) have revealed evidence

for a number of important Earth system changes and

previously unknown processes, including (but not limited

to) such things as:

• The continuation of the trend toward higher

global average surface temperature manifested

both on land and in the oceans

• Changes in atmospheric composition that both

contribute to climate change and that are affected

by climate change

• Changes in the cryosphere (e.g.,Arctic sea ice

coverage, significant changes in ice mass in

Greenland and Antarctica, and permafrost

temperature)

• Sea-level rise

• Changes in patterns and frequency of wildfire

• Changes in species distributions

• Ocean acidification and its consequences

• Changes in storminess

26
• Hydrologic changes affecting both humans and

ecosystems, including changes in water availability

and quality, glacier retreat, timing of snow melt,

and potential for flooding events and/or drought

• Unexpected variations in seasonal greenness in

tropical and temperate forests

• Variability of climate and the potential for abrupt

change.

For many of these changes, attribution to causative

factor(s) is not clearly established, and accelerated research

and analysis are needed to identify more clearly the

scientific bases that underpin such changes, including a

means for testing hypotheses of potential attribution.

In the 4 years since the 2003 Strategic Plan was

published, the climate community has also completed

work on several important assessments, including the

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (to which CCSP made

substantial scientific contributions) and the synthesis and

assessment products being developed under the auspices

of CCSP and discussed in the preceding section.These

assessments have helped to integrate related scientific

areas, to provide a comprehensive report on the state of

the science, to address the causes and consequences of

climate change, and to examine their effects on risk and

vulnerability of Earth systems and human communities.

These assessments are intended to provide input to the

broader climate policy community, and to shape external

dialogues and to frame the new questions that face land

and resource managers, communities, and policymakers.

Discussions within the user community have highlighted

the need for CCSP to provide more regionally resolved

and sector-specific information about climate through

downscaling of models, tools, and research results

(including societal impacts of and vulnerabilities to climate

change), and to provide the rigorous scientific basis to

support increased societal planning for adaptation to and

mitigation of the effects of climate change.

Taken together, the factors discussed above have led

to a need for evolution in both research questions and

approaches, and they have exerted a significant influence

on CCSP’s research directions.The past several years have

seen dramatic increases in knowledge about climate and

Earth systems; significant advances in both the length and

quality of observational data sets from ground-based,

airborne, and orbital platforms; consequent improvements

in the scope, resolution, and quality of models and

modeling efforts; the initiation of major new climate

sensors and observational efforts that are now beginning

to yield results for integrated scientific study, and the

potential loss or degradation of others; and the completion

of a variety of important assessments, including the IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report, assessments byWMO/UNEP,

the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, and CCSP’s own

synthesis and assessment products.As original questions

are answered, new questions emerge, approaches evolve,

and new users for CCSP’s information step forward.

27

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
As a direct result of the past 4 years of program activity

and progress, as well as recognition of the important

changes to Earth systems noted above, there are significant

new demands on CCSP.The most substantial of these is

the need mentioned above for information at regional to

local scales that are pertinent to direct land and resource

management issues, in order to support decisionmaking.

The development of robust partnerships (e.g., with state

and local governments, academia, industry, public utilities,

and nongovernmental organizations) will be an essential

component of CCSP’s response to these needs.These

areas include not just climate change itself but improved

understanding of associated issues of climate change

impacts, adaptation, vulnerability, and sustainability, as

well as the need for tools for the delivery of information

for decision support in a manner that is both timely and

useful, and at scales that are relevant to stakeholders’ needs.

The previous sections of this report are intended to

provide an overview of the structure and purpose of

CCSP, its products, accomplishments, and challenges, and

the progress that has led to the emergence of new priorities

and changed emphases over the past 4 years.The remainder

of this document is devoted to the articulation of plans for

CCSP both programmatically and as related to CCSP’s

strategic goals for the period 2008 to 2010.

28

Emerging Priorities for the Climate Change Science Program
V Climate Change

Science Program

Cross-Cutting

Elements
V. Climate Change

Science Program

Cross-Cutting

Elements

In addition to its research plans aimed at achieving

objectives associated directly with CCSP’s strategic goals,

CCSP has a series of cross-cutting elements that bridge

research goals and either contribute to, or promulgate, its

research accomplishments. CCSP will continue to

explore ways in which to improve and extend progress

toward achieving these cross-cutting programmatic

elements. Issues related to the cross-cutting elements of

observations systems and networks, modeling, decision

support/stakeholder engagement, and communication of

CCSP results to the public, nongovernmental organizations,

the climate change technology community, and state and

local officials and other decisionmakers are among the areas

for needed growth that were identified by stakeholders and

advisory committees, including the NRC in its recent

report on CCSP progress (NRC, 2007a). Over the next

3 years, as a part of its long-range strategic planning,

CCSP will actively consider approaches to determine and

implement effective responses to these needs.

Observations and Data

Management

Observation and monitoring are fundamental to

understanding how the climate system works, how it is

changing, what the uncertainties are, and the ways in

which climate and other Earth systems are linked.As

shown in the preceding discussion of research progress,

observations and monitoring data from a variety of

spaceborne, airborne, and in situ platforms provide critical

data for understanding a myriad of climate parameters

(e.g., external forcings like solar radiation, atmospheric

processes such as the formation of ice in clouds, land

surface processes like hydrology or the sensitivity of

ecosystems to change, and ocean processes including the

uptake of carbon).Without comprehensive data that

provide measurements of essential climate variables

through time and around the world, existing and future

progress in understanding and forecasting the climate

system and its interactions with and feedbacks to other

Earth systems and human systems would not be possible.

CCSP provides active stewardship of observations that

document the evolving state of the climate system, allow

for improved understanding of its changes, and contribute

to improved predictive capability for society. Some of

these observations are not part of the CCSP budget (e.g.,

operational satellites) but are crucial to its success.A core

CCSP activity is U.S. participation in the broad-based

strategy of the international Global Climate Observing

System (GCOS) in monitoring atmospheric, oceanic, and

terrestrial domains with appropriate balance and integration

of in situ and remotely sensed observations (for further

information on GCOS activities and essential climate

variables see <www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/gcos>). In

recent years, observing activities by CCSP agencies have

included the development and use of a number of

platforms, experiments, and networks to measure and

understand a wide variety of essential climate variables.

These measurements range from satellite and airborne

observations of atmospheric constituents, radiation and

CO2 fluxes, land- and sea-based carbon sources and sinks,

rainfall, global land cover, ice, and snow, to ground-based

networks and experiments measuring streamflow, water

quality, soil moisture and composition, paleoclimate

proxies, biomass and species distribution, and many

others.All of these observations provide the essential

underpinning for understanding Earth system processes,

variability, and trends.

An area of recent concern for CCSP has been the

ongoing declines in observational capabilities upon which

the program relies.According to the NRC (2007c), “between 2006 and the end of the decade, the number of

operating [remote-sensing] missions will decrease

dramatically and the number of operating sensors and

instruments on NASA spacecraft, most of which are well

past their nominal lifetimes, will decrease by some 40

percent.”These include a gap in continuous high-quality

observations of land-cover change from Landsat and

30
similar sensors, and demanifestation of several climate

sensors from the National Polar-orbiting Operational

Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) (some of

which have now been restored, including high vertical

profile ozone measurements and Earth radiation budget

measurements on the NPOESS preparatory project

mission).

Landsat-like sensors are required to systematically

measure trends in global land cover to better understand

land-climate interactions and to maintain ecosystem

goods and services for society, and an interim solution is

needed to provide this type of data as aging Landsat

platforms fail and before planned follow-on capabilities

are launched. Endeavors like the Mid-Decadal Survey –

the goal of which is to develop a global, orthorectified

data set from Landsat or Landsat-like observations based

on measurements during 2004 to 2006 – will provide

some continuity of these observations for research topics

like global land cover, but other global change research

that needs repeated data over short time spans (e.g.,

regional studies of phenological changes) will be affected.

Similarly, past declines in ground-based monitoring

networks like stream gages have hampered the Nation’s

ability to assess trends in important global change variables.

Another area of CCSP focus is on upgrading measurement

systems needed to support research that investigates

linkages of clouds and atmospheric aerosols to climate

processes, two high-priority science questions. Ensuring

the long-term integrity and understandability of data

products provided by important remote-sensing and in

situ observing and monitoring systems will be a continuing

challenge for CCSP agencies.

Over the next 3 years, observing activities by CCSP

agencies will include foci on observing the polar climate

as part of the International PolarYear (IPY) and developing

the records needed for the Mid-Decadal Survey.The IPY

plans to advance polar observations by establishing a

variety of new multidisciplinary observatories using

sensor web technologies (networks of spatially distributed

sensor platforms that wirelessly communicate with each

other) and power-efficient designs. Data from these, as

well as more traditional surface- and space-based

observatories, will provide the initial long-term, highquality sustained measurements needed to detect future

climate change. For the IPY and beyond, the United

States plans to increase its efforts on observations of

the polar atmosphere, ice, and ocean, as well as leverage

its investments in polar research with international

partners.

Data management and distribution activities, including

those mentioned in Appendix 2 as examples, play a key

role in making accessible the information necessary to

fulfill CCSP’s mission to provide the “Nation and the

global community with the science-based knowledge to

manage the risks and opportunities of change in the

climate and related environmental systems.” Many

measurement and monitoring technologies and derived

data systems benefit from the ongoing research and

development under the aegis of CCSP, and from other

Earth observation activities that are currently underway

and in which CCSP participates.All such measurement

and monitoring systems constitute an important

component of and complement to the measurement and

monitoring research and development portfolio of

CCSP’s sister program, the Climate ChangeTechnology

Program (CCTP). Complementary to CCSP’s focus on

providing a framework for Federal agencies to cooperate

and coordinate climate change science, CCTP provides

agencies with a coordinating framework for the development

of climate change technology. For additional information

on CCTP’s mission and technology areas, including

energy supply, end use, and infrastructure; CO2 capture

and sequestration; non-CO2 greenhouse gases; and its

measurement and monitoring research and development

activities, see <www.climatetechnology.gov>. Since

aspects of these areas are of importance to climate science

as well, it is anticipated that over the next several years,

the two programs (CCSP and CCTP) will take advantage

of opportunities to develop closer collaborations on

research areas of mutual interest.

Cooperative efforts by CCSP agencies are moving

toward providing an integrated and more easily accessed

Earth information system that will effectively preserve,

extend, and distribute information about the evolving

state of the Earth.A few representative examples of

specific agency efforts in data management are described

in Appendix 2; these include the Earth Science Research,

Education, and Applications Solutions Network; the

Global Change Master Directory; the Earth Observing

System Data and Information System; the Distributed

Active Archive Centers; and the Carbon Dioxide

Information Analysis Center.Although each activity has a

single lead agency, participation involves many CCSP

agencies, as well as state, local, and nongovernmental

partners. See also CCSP’s annual report to Congress

(CCSP, 2007b, 2008) for further information on these

and other observation missions, networks, and data

management activities.

31

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
Modeling

Modeling is an essential tool for combining observations,

theory, and experimental results, and using them to

investigate and understand how climate and other

components of the Earth system work, how they are

affected by human activities, and how they will respond

to potential future changes.The accuracy of models can

be tested by comparing historic observational data and

paleoclimate reconstructions with model results, providing

that prior forcings are understood or can be estimated

through proxy data. Models are vital tools for quantitatively

integrating scientific understanding of the many components

of the climate system.They are the only tools available for

forecasting potential future changes. Comprehensive

Earth system models are the primary tools for assessing

the impacts of different future climate scenarios; they aim

to represent the major components of the climate system

(atmosphere, oceans, land surface, cryosphere, and

biosphere) and to include the transfer of water, energy,

chemicals, and mass among them, in order to understand

how these factors and components interact.While much has

been accomplished in the development of comprehensive

climate models, much remains to be done. One factor

limiting progress has been the paucity of data needed as

inputs to the models, an area that CCSP has been

addressing and continues to address in research under

Goals 1 through 3 as discussed above.Another is that

comprehensive climate models are complex and

computationally intensive: they need an infrastructure

designed to support their development and use, they

require skilled personnel to design, implement, and

improve them, and they require exceptionally large

amounts of computer resources to run.

It is the need for modeling Earth systems of increasing

complexity – incorporating the major relevant processes

with the spatial detail and reliability sufficient to support

decisionmaking – that drives the requirement for

computational capabilities. Early climate models

concentrated on simulation and prediction of the physical

climate system. Over the past few years, CCSP modeling

has begun to expand beyond the physical climate system

to include complex models and modeling ensembles to

elucidate the complex interrelationships of a fuller array

of processes that make up the Earth system, including

dynamics of ecosystems, biogeochemistry, and human

influences on climate and responses to climate variability

and change.

Beyond the increasing inclusion of multiple system

elements, the most urgent need that has emerged in the

modeling field is the need to move from models that

produce reliable results only at global and continental

scales to models that adequately address the regional and

even local scales at which most societal, environmental,

and land and resource management decisions are made.

Incorporating new processes (e.g., carbon-climate

interactions, aerosol-climate interactions), improving

model physics to incorporate more complex system

components and new parameterizations, and achieving

greater fidelity of model simulations at a regional scale

are CCSP’s primary foci in modeling activities over the

next 3 years. Modeling efforts to address specific aspects

of modeling science and applications are underway in

many CCSP member agencies, consistent with agency

and CCSP missions.These efforts cover a wide range of

modeling types and needs, from improvements in and

refinements of global climate models to the development

of regionally resolved decision-support models for land

and resource management.

International Research and

Cooperation

Since climate varies over a wide range of geographic

scales that transcend national boundaries, climate change

and its impacts are inherently international in scope.The

study of climate change and variability on appropriate

scales thus requires international cooperation among

scientists, research institutions, governments, and

intergovernmental agencies. CCSP supports and

encourages international cooperation to increase leverage

of resources, to enhance global observational capabilities

and networks, to ensure data quality and exchange, and to

foster the development of new scientific capabilities and

applications in both the developed and developing

countries of the world.

32

Climate Change Science Program Cross-Cutting Elements
The United States – through CCSP, individual agency,

and multi-agency efforts – participates in and supports a

wide range of international cooperative activities related

to global change and climate change research.These

activities include support of key international climate

change science research programs, especially those under

the aegis of ICSU, and their regular review; support of

ongoing international assessments; support of regional

global change research networks; participation in informal

organizations that foster global change research; and

support of international efforts aimed at improving and

coordinating observations of Earth. CCSP gives high

priority to participation in international partnerships

including IGBP, the International Human Dimensions

Programme (IHDP),WCRP, DIVERSITAS, and the Earth

System Science Partnership (ESSP).

Individually, CCSP-participating agencies support

international activities that correspond with specific

agency goals or missions, and/or for which they have

been given the lead for the Federal government. In the

latter case, and where appropriate, CCSP also provides a

centralized structure for soliciting, communicating,

coordinating, compiling, and transmitting U.S. input to a

variety of international organizations addressing climate

and global change research issues of importance to the

United States.This includes support to the Department of

State regarding programs of the United Nations specialized

agencies involved in climate and global change research,

IPCC, UNFCCC, and bilateral agreements for cooperation

in climate change science and technology.

CCSP provides appropriate U.S. shares of multilateral

funding for centralized coordination of international

research programs that are important to international

cooperation.This centralized coordination allows the

international programs to collaborate with national

research networks on disciplinary and interdisciplinary

scientific endeavors and allows for the coordination of

important synthesis reports. CCSP provides financial

support to activities of the IPCCWorking Group I

Technical Support Unit and the partner programs of ESSP

including the SysTem for Analysis, Research andTraining

(START). Long-term and active participation in and

contributions to regional research networks including the

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI),

the Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research

(APN), and burgeoning African cooperation fosters global

change research in developing countries, develops researchdriven capacity in those countries, and fosters research

partnerships that ultimately support global goals in

research into and observations of the Earth system.The

United States, through CCSP, also participates in a

variety of programs that promote cooperation with other

countries, directly enhance research capabilities in

developing countries, and enhance climate forecasting

and thereby adaptive capacity to respond to climate

change in developing countries. More detail on the

international partnerships and programs that CCSP and

participating agencies support can be found each year in

CCSP’s annual report to Congress.

Decision Support

CCSP sponsors and conducts research that is ultimately

related to policy and adaptive management decisionmaking.

CCSP’s decision-support approach is guided by several

general principles, including the early and continuing

involvement of stakeholders, the explicit treatment of

uncertainties, the transparent public review of analysis

questions, methods, and draft results, and the evaluation of

lessons learned from ongoing and prior decision-support

and assessment activities. CCSP utilizes three approaches

to decision support: 1) assessments, including CCSP’s

synthesis and assessment products; 2) adaptive management;

and 3) policy-relevant analyses.These approaches inform

the integrated decision-support activities of the program

and are also utilized as appropriate by participating

agencies in their decision-support activities.

A key set of current CCSP decision-support results in

preparation at this time are its 21 synthesis and assessment

products that integrate research results focused on key

issues and related questions frequently raised by

decisionmakers (see Appendix 1). Up-to-date evaluations

of current science can be used for informing public

debate, policy development, and adaptive management

decisions and for defining and setting the future direction

and priorities of the program.The synthesis and assessment

products constitute an important new form of topicdriven integration of U.S. global change assessment efforts.

These CCSP products are U.S. Government reports,

subject to the provisions of the Information Quality Act5

33

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

5 Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act of 2001.
and the Federal Advisory Committee Act Amendments of

1997.6The synthesis and assessment products are generated

by researchers in a process that involves review by experts,

public comment from stakeholders and the general public,

and final approval by the departments/agencies that

participate in CCSP.A detailed description of the process

involved in the preparation of these reports can be found

in Our Changing Planet:The U.S.Climate Change Science

Program for FiscalYear 2008.7 Up-to-date information on the

preparation and publication status of all SAPs is available

from <www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap>.

To build on the experiences of earlier assessment

activities, CCSP requested that the NRC carry out an

analysis of global change assessments that have addressed

topics broadly similar to those encompassed by CCSP.The

study, which was released in early 2007, included a

comparative analysis of past assessments that address

issues directly related to the science and technical issues

of CCSP (NRC, 2007b).The committee concluded that

global change assessments are extremely important for

informing decisionmakers. In identifying essential

properties of a successful assessment, it stressed that

future assessment processes must communicate relevant

information to the user, address the technical quality of the

information, and demonstrate fairness and impartiality in

the assessment process.The report identifies a number of

essential elements that increase the probability that an

assessment will effectively inform decisionmakers and

other target audiences. CCSP will build the findings of

the NRC into its future assessment activities.

Education

Many of the CCSP agencies have a substantial investment

and interest in climate education.These activities include

the development of educational frameworks, classroom

materials, and fact sheets for students and the public;

provision of up-to-date information on climate science via

teacher workshops, web sites, podcasts, RSS feeds, lectures,

and many other venues; and funding of informal education

activities (e.g., museums). CCSP is exploring ways to

enhance and better coordinate and integrate these activities.

CCSP will also explore opportunities for partnerships

with educational organizations that will help it capitalize

on its investments and aid in the development of increased

climate literacy for the Nation.

Stakeholder Engagement,

Communication,and Dissemination

of Results

CCSP agencies will continue to take a leadership role in

the dissemination of results and products that come from

the program’s research, observations, and decision-support

activities.The premier dissemination method for the near

term is the publication of CCSP’s synthesis and assessment

products aimed at a range of audiences including scientists,

policymakers, and land and resource managers.The program

will ensure that the conclusions from its assessment products

and activities are widely communicated. In addition, the

program will coordinate the development of interagency

climate-related communications with those of the member

agencies to help ensure that the accomplishments of the

overall national investment in climate-related science are

understood and are widely available to potential users.

Individual scientists and science teams continue to

publish research in the open, peer-reviewed scientific

literature, and this is the most prolific source of climate

change science information produced under the aegis of

the program, with hundreds of scientific papers written,

reviewed, and published each year. CCSP will continue to

develop and hold stakeholder workshops for mutual

education and information exchange.

A number of public comments received during the

preparation of this Revised Research Plan highlighted the

need for research on how to effectively disseminate climate

change prevention and adaptation information to key

professional and public audiences, and made the suggestion

that CCSP should also develop social marketing and

behavior change research that examines how to move

members of key audiences beyond awareness to taking

effective action, akin to successful efforts undertaken in

the public health sector.This area of research will be given

attention as part of CCSP’s strategic planning process.

34

Climate Change Science Program Cross-Cutting Elements

6 P.L. 105-153, Sec. 2(A), (B), Dec. 17, 1997, 111 Stat. 2689.

7 See <www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/ocp2008>.
VI Climate Change

Science Program

Research Plans:

2008 to 2010
VI. Climate Change

Science Program

Research Plans:

2008 to 2010

The scope of CCSP scientific research is far-reaching.

CCSP strategic goals encompass everything from basic

scientific research on Earth’s past and present climate and

climate variability, the forces that result in changes in

Earth’s climate and related systems, reducing uncertainties

in projecting future change and its consequences, and the

sensitivity/adaptability of both ecosystems and human

systems, all the way to the application of the knowledge

gained to the decisionmaking process for the management

of risks and development of strategies for adaptation to

climate change.

Over the past several years, some scientific questions

have been answered, some remain or have evolved, and

new questions have emerged as a consequence of the

progress made. For example, 4 years ago a key question

identified in CCSP’s Strategic Plan was whether there is a

cause and effect relationship between human activities

and a warming climate.Today, as reflected in the IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report and largely due to the valuable

research fostered by CCSP and other programs worldwide,

that question has been answered in the affirmative.

Similarly, at the time of the IPCCThird Assessment

Report, there was great uncertainty regarding whether

melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets could

contribute to sea-level rise; in the Fourth Assessment

Report, the data show a high likelihood that there was a

contribution over the period 1993 to 2003. In both these

cases, the question is no longer whether such changes are

occurring, but rather how much, how fast, and where the

consequences of these changes will be felt.

A third and slightly different example is in the field of

climate modeling. Over the past several years, advances in

the state of knowledge of model physics together with the

rapidly increasing capacity of computational resources

mean that it is now possible to begin to develop scenarios

showing potential regional, rather than continental or

global, changes and impacts. Examples of modeling efforts

that are providing value at regional to local scales are

addressed in the research plan discussions that follow.

Overall, increasing lengths and quality of long-term

monitoring records, and their increased availability to

researchers via electronic means, provide greater resolution

and reduced uncertainty in understanding trends across a

wide variety of scientific endeavors.These developments

have led overall to an increased demand for sound science

to support decisions, and an emphasis on the relevance of

science to questions of adaptation to and mitigation of

climate change.Thus, the Nation’s ongoing investments

and advances in basic scientific monitoring, observations,

process research, and modeling remain vital to global

change research.

CCSP will utilize the Nation’s investments and advances

in monitoring and measurement capabilities to continue

to gather and analyze information via experimental

manipulation, measurement, modeling, and assessment

studies to enhance understanding of Earth systems and

the processes affecting their changes (Goals 1 through 3),

while moving into increased activity in understanding

societal and ecosystem sensitivities, predicting

environmental responses, and supporting decisionmaking

(Goals 4 and 5). Research is needed to more fully

understand the implications of climate change for both

natural and managed ecosystems and to strengthen the

delivery of that information to land and resource managers

and other stakeholders to support adaptive management

and mitigation efforts.Also needed are improvements in

the reliability of ecological forecasting, and the development

of better capabilities and an early warning system for

anticipating potential abrupt climate changes and climate

change impacts. Research is needed to understand the

human health implications of global change and the

potential impacts of global change on infrastructure,

economic, and other human systems so that risks can be

managed and vulnerability reduced.

Comments received during the public comment

period and expert review of this Revised Research Plan

highlighted the need for improved knowledge through

research on social, economic, behavioral, engineering,

and multidisciplinary research across the natural/physical

science and socioeconomic science divide, as well as

research on dissemination and information transfer.The

comments suggested that perhaps one of the near-term

36
goals for the CCSP should be to develop a more extensive

and inclusive socioeconomic research agenda to meet its

goals.These areas of research will be given attention as

part of CCSP’s strategic planning process. Efforts are

underway to begin to strengthen CCSP’s activities in

these areas, through the active participation of agencies

with missions in these areas, through direction to the

IWGs to address and include Goals 4 and 5 in their

collaborative planning, and through planning for both

near- and long-term engagement with and inclusion of a

wide range of stakeholders through such venues as

workshops, listening sessions, and participation in

mutually relevant professional meetings.

As stated in Section I, CCSP’s strategic goals provide

the focus and direction for the program, to ensure that

knowledge developed by the participating agencies and

research elements can be integrated and synthesized, and

this remains the overarching strategy for the program.

The strategic goals are long-term goals that speak to

major advancements in our understanding of Earth’s

climate, its variability, the factors that control and change

it, and the consequences and impacts of those changes on

Earth’s systems and human communities.While the

scientific enterprise must be able to respond quickly to

make use of and understand unexpected events and

results (e.g., recent observations of rapid change at high

latitudes), the accomplishment of such crucial yet broadranging goals is often done incrementally, through

multiple projects aimed at understanding specific questions,

the results of which are combined to provide progress

towards the overarching goal.

The following goal-by-goal descriptions provide a sense

of the strategic purpose and scope encompassed by these

goals, and the way in which the goals inform monitoring

and research, decision support, and communications

throughout the program. Included with each goal

description is a series of illustrative examples of specific

activities planned for the period 2008 to 2010. In some

cases, these activities have longer range components that

will continue after the 2008 to 2010 time frame.This

goal-by-goal discussion is followed by a series of

interagency implementation plans that, through their

multidisciplinary nature, inherently address multiple goals

and require the combined efforts of multiple agencies. In

addition to the examples specified here, other urgent

research topics, yet to be determined, will undoubtedly

emerge from ongoing progress, events, and societal

needs.

Research Plans for Goal 1:

2008 to 2010

CCSP Goal 1:Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past

and present climate and environment,including its

natural variability,and improve understanding of the

causes of observed variability and change.

OVERVIEW

Climate conditions change significantly over the span of

years, decades, and even longer time scales. CCSP research

will improve understanding of natural oscillations in

climate on time scales from weeks to centuries, including

improving forecasts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

(ENSO), a large-scale climate oscillation with implications

for resource and disaster management. Research will

continue to sharpen qualitative and quantitative

understanding of climate extremes, and to what degree

any changes in frequency or intensity lie outside the range

of natural variability, through improved observations,

analysis, and modeling.The program also will continue to

expand and refine observations, monitoring, and data/

information system capabilities and increase confidence in

understanding of how and why climate is changing.

Fostering improved interactions and connectivity between

research and ongoing operational measurements and

activities continues to be another important aspect of the

program’s work.

KEY RESEARCHTOPICS

The 2003 CCSP Strategic Plan identifies some key

research topics that must be addressed in order to answer

the broad questions of the range of Earth’s natural climate

variability through time, and to improve understanding

of the causes and consequences of observed change.

Understanding couplings between the oceans, atmosphere,

and land are central to this goal. Research outcomes

identified in the Strategic Plan include:

• Better understand natural long-term cycles in

climate (e.g., PAO and NAO)

• Improve and harness the capability to forecast El

Niño/La Niña and other seasonal-to-interannual

cycles of variability

37

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
• Sharpen understanding of climate extremes

through improved observations, analysis, and

modeling, and determine whether any changes in

their frequency or intensity lie outside the range

of natural variability

• Increase confidence in the understanding of how

and why climate has changed

• Expand observations and data/information system

capabilities.

These outcomes are important as a necessary step

toward producing better forecasts of seasonal climate

change and the regional structure of change associated

with global warming, and uncertainty estimates for these

forecasts. Understanding the complex connections between

oceans, atmosphere, and land that feed into climate

variability requires a diverse and extremely broad set of

long-term research activities, including observation and

monitoring efforts and modeling.These include the need

for information on paleoclimate and ocean chemistry

through time; basic information on sea surface temperature

through time; measurements of ocean salinity and pH,

carbon cycling, chemical properties and changes (including

ocean acidification); physical properties and changes;

biological abundance and variation in the world’s oceans;

basic atmospheric measurements worldwide; and the

linkages of clouds and atmospheric aerosols to climate

processes.

On the land surface, among the highest priorities are

basic measurement and monitoring of rapidly changing

high-latitude parameters and their connections to the

climate system, including permafrost temperatures and

carbon cycling, rates and distribution of melting of both

northern and southern polar ice, the effects of Arctic

aerosols on clouds, radiation budget, and ice melting, and

a better understanding of land use effects on ecosystem

processes and coupled land-climate interactions.Also key

are the need for better understanding of ecological and

biogeochemical processes and feedbacks and their

relationships to climate, atmosphere, and hydrology, and

the role of land use in these processes.These topics are

among those addressed by CCSP’s 2008 to 2010 research

plans as illustrated in the examples below.These are

illustrative examples intended to provide some specificity

regarding the program’s breadth in each area, but are not

intended to be exhaustive lists of plans.

ILLUSTRATIVE GOAL 1 PLANS

Oceans

Global Climate and Ocean Observations. Priorities for

advancement of atmospheric and ocean observing

components are carried out in significant part under the

GCOS framework.These priorities include (1) reducing

the uncertainty in the carbon inventory of the global

ocean, sea-level change, and sea surface temperature;

(2) continuing support for existing in situ atmospheric

networks in developing nations; and (3) planning for

surface and upper air GCOS reference observations

consistent with CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Report

1.1.The Argo ocean observation array, which is making

vertical measurements of ocean conditions, is reaching

global coverage.TheTropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO)

array in the Pacific will begin to be refreshed with

redesigned mooring technologies, and theTAO tropical

system will be expanded further in the Indian Ocean.

Three new ocean reference stations will be added to the

system, for improved forecasts and modeling validation,

assessments of climate impacts on ecosystems, and

monitoring for possible rapid climate change.The tide

gauge network will continue to be upgraded for real-time

reporting, also contributing to the international tsunami

warning system. Continued support will be given to the

activities, database development, and data delivery systems

of the international Global Sea Level Observing System.

The Global Ocean Observing System will make

incremental advances, building up to 62% completion:

50 surface drifters will be equipped with salinity sensors

for satellite validation and salinity budget calculations,

particularly in the polar regions; a new reference array

will be added across the Atlantic basin to measure changes

in the ocean’s overturning circulation, an indicator of

possible abrupt climate change; and a pilot U.S. coastal

carbon observing network will enter sustained service, to

help quantify North American carbon sources and sinks

38

Climate Change Science Program Research Plans: 2008 to 2010
and to measure ocean acidification caused by CO2

sequestration in the ocean.Work is underway on developing

biological sensors as part of the Global Ocean Observing

System. Finally, planning activities will continue on

development of a GCOS Reference Upper Air Network

to aid in enhancing the quality of upper tropospheric and

lower stratospheric water vapor measurements.

Field Experiment to Improve Understanding of Southeast

Pacific Climate Processes.TheVariability of the American

Monsoon System (VAMOS) Ocean-Cloud-AtmosphereLand Study – Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx) is

planned for October and November 2008, with data

analysis and modeling to follow in FY 2009, FY 2010, and

beyond.This international field experiment is designed to

better understand physical and chemical processes central

to the climate system of the Southeast Pacific (SEP) region.The climate system of the SEP involves tightly

coupled, but poorly understood, interactions among the

ocean, atmosphere, and land.VOCALS-REx will focus on

interactions among clouds, aerosols, marine boundary layer

processes, upper ocean dynamics and thermodynamics,

coastal currents and upwelling, large-scale subsidence,

and regional diurnal circulations to the west of the Andes

mountain range. Multidisciplinary intensive observational

data sets will be obtained duringVOCALS-REx from

several platforms including aircraft, research vessels, and

a surface land site.An intensive observational period will

take place during October and November 2008, when

the extent of stratocumulus over the SEP is at its greatest,

the southeast trade winds are at their strongest, and the

coupling between the upper ocean and the lower

atmosphere is at its tightest.This project is one of several

that will contribute to the activities of the U.S. Climate

Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Program, which

is responsible for coordinating many of CCSP’s activities

pursuant to its physical science objectives under Goal 1.

Atmosphere

Tropical Composition,Clouds,and Climate Coupling. CCSP

researchers will begin their analysis of data from a FY

2007 field mission in Costa Rica to study how climate is

linked to atmospheric composition and clouds in the

tropical summer convective wet season.This successful

Tropical Composition Cloud and Climate Coupling field

mission involved three major aircraft (DC-8, ER-2,

WB-57F) making over 20 research flights using some 60

instruments, including balloon launches from three

locations, and involving over 250 participants.Analyses

will incorporate data from aircraft flights and ground

measurements, as well as Aura satellite observations, to

address scientific questions related to how clouds,

aerosols, and trace gases influence radiative heating in the

very active tropical atmosphere.

International PolarYear Research on Arctic Aerosols and their

Connections to Clouds,Radiation,and Ice Melting.The longrange transport of anthropogenic pollution from North

America, Europe, and western Asia creates the aerosols

associated with the so-called Arctic haze, a phenomenon

that recurs every winter and spring.The direct and indirect

climate impacts of the aerosols can be quite different in

the Arctic compared to elsewhere, because high surface

reflections from snow and ice mean that even weakly

absorbing aerosol layers can heat the Earth/atmosphere

system in the Arctic.The analysis of 8 years ofAtmospheric

Radiation Measurement (ARM) data suggests that enhanced

aerosol concentrations may increase the amount of thermal

energy emitted by many Arctic clouds to the surface,

causing increased Arctic warming in addition to the

greenhouse gas warming (Lubin andVogelmann, 2006).

As part of IPY research, CCSP scientists will conduct

field missions to investigate Arctic aerosol/climate

connections in this unique environment. Spring and

summer measurements from satellites, aircraft, and the

surface will be made in collaboration with the larger IPY

study POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote

Sensing, Surface Measurements, and Models of Climate,

Chemistry,Aerosols, andTransport) which is a core IPY

activity focusing on the transport of aerosols and pollution

from mid-latitude anthropogenic sources and boreal fires to

the Arctic and its climate impact (<www.polarcat.no/>).

The Arctic Research of the Composition ofTroposphere

from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) experiment will

also perform comprehensive measurements of trace

gases, aerosols, and radiation from three aircraft during

two seasons (see <www.espo.nasa.gov/arctas/>). Spring

flights were focused on the climate impact of Arctic haze

and anthropogenic pollution transported to the Arctic

from mid-latitudes, and observations were made to assess

the long-range transport of anthropogenic pollution to

the Arctic and its contribution to Arctic haze, ozone

chemistry, and the possible connections between Arctic

aerosols and the melting of polar ice through the Aerosol,

Radiation and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate

campaign and the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol

Campaign (see <www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/arcpac/>

and <acrf-campaign.arm.gov/isdac/>). Summertime

observations will be made to assess fire emissions from

the boreal forests.ARCTAS flights are being closely

39

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
coordinated with satellite observations from instruments

on theTerra and A-Train satellites with the goal of

improving their long-term use in diagnosing changes in

Arctic atmospheric conditions. Ongoing and future

analyses of these measurements will ultimately improve

the ability of current models to simulate the influence of

anthropogenic pollution and boreal fires on the Arctic

atmosphere and climate.

Land

Prototype Land-Cover Mapping Activities.The National

Land Cover Database effort in Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto

Rico was finished in December 2007, marking completion

of the first compilation of nationwide land cover ever

produced at 30-m resolution.This will improve knowledge

of Earth’s present environment and its variability and

form the baseline for quantifying change at high spatial

resolution.

Development of a Permafrost Monitoring Network. Climate

projections by coupled atmosphere-ocean general

circulation models suggest significant environmental

changes will occur in the Arctic during the next 80 years.

Given the large potential impacts, and the significant

uncertainty in the model projections, the U.S. Department

of the Interior is developing a long-term permafrost

monitoring network on Federal lands in northern Alaska;

this network contributes to the GlobalTerrestrial Network

for Permafrost and GCOS.Analysis of data acquired thus

far by the monitoring network suggests that permafrost

temperatures on the western half of the Arctic Coastal

Plain in Alaska may have warmed several degrees Celsius

between 1980 and 2005.

Land-Oceans-Atmosphere Integration (Climate System)

Polar Region Observations:International PolarYear.Integrated

polar climate observations will continue to be a CCSP

focus.As a part of IPY, CCSP research will investigate the

possible connections between Arctic haze aerosols and the

melting of polar ice in the region.The investigation will

involve multiple agencies in cooperation with scientists

and facilities from several other countries. In addition to a

wide variety of surface measurements, in situ and remotesensing measurements will be made from balloons and

aircraft. Satellite observations will include Cloud-Aerosol

Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation

(CALIPSO) and Cloudsat, using lidar and radar instruments

to provide three-dimensional distributions of aerosols and

layered clouds.These data – when combined with data

from the A-train configuration of the Aqua,Aura, and

Parasol satellites orbiting in formation – will enable

systematic observation of the key climate forcing of aerosol

indirect effects, climate sensitivity of cloud feedbacks, and

polar climate response of difficult-to-observe polar

clouds. Surface field teams from many nations will

provide important in situ measurements and analyses to

complement the satellite observations contributed by

multiple space agencies.A U.S. Climate Reference Network

system will be deployed at the Russian Arctic site ofTiksi

at latitude 71.5°N in order to provide long-term reference

measurements of temperature, precipitation, wind,

pressure, and surface radiation in support of IPY and

beyond.These efforts are tied to those of the Arctic

Observing Network (AON), which is envisioned as a system

of atmospheric, land, and ocean-based environmental

monitoring capabilities – from ocean buoys to satellites –

that will significantly advance observations of Arctic

environmental conditions. Developed largely as a research

system, it is hoped that data from AON will eventually

enable the interagency U.S. Government initiative – the

Study of Environmental Arctic Change – to better

understand the wide-ranging series of significant and

rapid changes occurring in the Arctic.

Data Fusion.As the length of record in the database of

global observations increases, effort will be placed on

developing methodologies for assimilating Earth

observations into global climate models, to produce an

integrated view of the climate system and to better

provide this view to users as part of decision support and

resource management systems.The value of the data will

benefit by increased “data fusion” in which, for example,

MODIS observations will be joined with complementary

capabilities of other Earth-observing instruments to

provide much improved, more accurate and rigorous

observations of key phenomena such as sea surface

temperature, cloud characteristics, and land surface

features. Data fusion efforts will include instruments on

existing Earth Observing System (EOS) missions such as

Terra,Aqua, ICESat,Aura, Landsat, and SORCE; those on

recently launched missions such as CloudSat and CALIPSO;

and, farther in the future, those on Earth System Science

Pathfinder missions and the Global Precipitation

Measurement Mission.The fusion of space-borne

observations with in situ biological and physical observations,

such as those gathered through the Ameriflux Network

and the Ocean Observing Initiative, is crucial for gaining

a better understanding of trends in and associated

consequences of the variability in the atmosphere-landocean system.This activity is closely related to the CCSP

40

Climate Change Science Program Research Plans: 2008 to 2010
ClimateVariability and Change research element’s priority

of improving Earth system analysis capabilities.

Continuity of Climate Measurements.As new satellite

instruments bring new measurement capabilities, the

challenge becomes establishing priorities for the right mix

of existing observing capabilities and new capabilities to

support the goals of CCSP. Continuity of measurement of

several key climate variables is being carefully considered,

including stratospheric ozone, radiative energy fluxes of

the Sun and Earth, atmospheric CO2 and methane

concentrations, global surface temperature, and global

land cover (e.g., as measured by Landsat).

The long-term record of global land cover was begun

by Landsat 1 in 1972 and continues through the collection

of data from Landsats 5 and 7. Launched in 1984, with a

design life of 3 years, Landsat 5 continues to provide

near-global coverage through a network of international

ground station cooperators. Landsat 7 was launched in

1999, and continues to acquire global observations on a

daily basis although in a degraded operating mode.The

combined assets of Landsats 5 and 7 permit repeat

coverage as frequently as every 8 days over groundreceiving station sites. Efforts to create a long-term

record of global land cover, started by Landsat in the

1970s, are currently underway for the transition to a

Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) being planned

by NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

LDCM is expected to have a 5-year mission life, with

10-year expendable provisions.The National Land

Imaging Program Plan, which is currently proposed for

FY 2009, will aid in long-term planning for a stable,

operational, space-based land imaging capability.

Planning continues on deploying component sensors

from NPOESS. Several of the climate-related instruments

that had been demanifested from NPOESS have now

been restored, including high vertical profile ozone

measurements and Earth radiation budget measurements

on the NPOESS preparatory project mission, development

of Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System

(CERES) and theTotal Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) on

other operational platforms, and planning for the 2013

launch of Jason-3.The NPOESS Preparatory Project is

scheduled for 2010 as a bridge mission between NASA’s

EOS program and NPOESS, now scheduled for its first

launch in 2013.

The record of precipitation that has been extended in

recent years to include oceanic as well as land areas using

measurements from theTropical Rainfall Measuring

Mission (TRMM) is another example of a key climate

data set that needs to be considered as priorities are set

for the future.These examples of key climate variables are

elements of the comprehensive observing system to

monitor changes in the cycles of carbon, energy, water,

and related biogeochemical processes that drive Earth’s

climate.

Research Plans for Goal 2:

2008 to 2010

CCSP Goal 2:Improve quantification of the forces

bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and

related systems.

OVERVIEW

Forcings are factors that directly change the average

energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system by

affecting the balance between incoming solar radiation

and outgoing or “back” radiation.They include external

factors like variations in solar radiation and volcanic

emissions, and human-induced factors such as combustion

of fossil fuels, changes in land cover and land use, and

industrial activities.Variations in solar radiation directly

affect the amount of energy received by Earth, and

volcanic emissions and human-induced forcings produce

greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols that alter the

composition of the atmosphere and affect the physical and

biological properties of the Earth’s surface.These changes

have several important climatic effects, the quantification

of which has improved dramatically in recent years but

upon which a substantial amount of work remains to be

done. Research conducted through CCSP will continue to

address the reduction of uncertainty in the sources and

sinks of GHGs and aerosols and their precursors; the

long-range atmospheric transport of GHGs and aerosols

and their precursors; and the interactions of GHGs and

aerosols with global climate, ozone in the upper and lower

layers of the atmosphere, and regional scale air quality.

This research will continue to improve quantification of

the interactions and feedbacks among the carbon cycle,

other biological, biogeochemical, and ecological

processes in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems,

41

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
and land cover and land use to better project atmospheric

concentrations of key GHGs and to support improved

decisionmaking.The program will also continue to work

toward improved capabilities for developing and applying

emissions scenarios in research and analysis, in cooperation

with its sister program CCTP.

KEY RESEARCHTOPICS

The 2003 CCSP Strategic Plan articulates the research

questions that must be addressed in order to improve

understanding of the forces that are responsible for changes

in the Earth’s climate and related systems. Understanding

solar radiation, the physics of the atmosphere, the effects

of atmospheric trace constituents and aerosols that change

the properties of Earth’s atmosphere, and the movement

of carbon through ocean, atmosphere, and land systems

is crucial to this endeavor. For the land surface, a key

uncertainty is the potential effects and feedbacks of

ecological change (e.g., changes to land cover that in turn

cause changes in the reflectivity of the land surface) on

the climate system. Research outcomes identified in the

CCSP Strategic Plan include:

• Reduce uncertainties about the sources and sinks of

GHGs, emissions of aerosols and their precursors,

and their climate effects

• Monitor the recovery of the ozone layer and

improve the understanding of the interactions of

climate change, ozone depletion, tropospheric

pollution, and other atmospheric issues

• Increase knowledge of the interactions among

emissions, long-range atmospheric transport, and

transformations of atmospheric pollutants, and

their response to air quality management strategies

• Develop information on the carbon cycle, land

cover and use, and biological/ecological processes

by helping to quantify net emissions of CO2,

methane, and other GHGs, thereby improving the

evaluation of carbon sequestration strategies and

alternative response options

• Improve capabilities to develop and apply emissions

and related scenarios for conducting “If...,

then...” analyses in cooperation with CCTP.

Understanding the forces that act upon climate and

related Earth systems requires an integrated and broadbased approach, to understand how diverse and various

changes in the land, oceans, and atmosphere will affect and

potentially feed back into the climate system.This calls

for a detailed knowledge of the physics of atmospheric

processes and constituents including the abundance and

variations in trace species (including non-CO2 carbonbearing constituents like methane and pollutants like

hydrofluorocarbons) and aerosols (including dust particles

and particulate emissions), and how these processes and

constituents vary through time and affect cloud formation,

radiation balance, and feedbacks among the land, oceans,

and atmosphere. In order to understand climate forcings,

it is also necessary to understand the land surface changes

that affect the transfer of radiation from atmosphere to

land and back, and the processes that control the cycling

of carbon on land, in the world’s oceans, and from land

surfaces to coastal waters and beyond.A particular area of

urgent need is for this information at Earth’s high latitudes,

where changes are occurring rapidly. Understanding these

forcings and feedbacks is integral to building scenarios for

understanding the role of emissions in climate.The 2008

to 2010 research topics outlined below are among those

that address these priorities.These examples are intended

to be illustrative of the breadth of the program’s activities

under Goal 2, but are not intended to be exhaustive lists of

the program’s implementation of its strategic directions

described above.

ILLUSTRATIVE GOAL 2 PLANS

Oceans

Global Ocean Carbon. Ongoing and new studies will

continue to improve understanding of the ocean carbon

cycle and its effects on ocean carbon dynamics. Of

particular interest are the feedbacks and drivers of ocean

chemistry and biology that affect carbon uptake and

sequestration by the ocean, including the biotic and abiotic

partitioning of carbon, and constraints on ocean carbon

sequestration.An interagency field study of air-sea CO2

flux and remotely sensed data in the high-latitude Southern

Ocean during the 2007-2008 austral summer focused on

understanding both (a) the kinetics of gas exchange and

the factors controlling it, and (b) the physical and

biogeochemical factors controlling the exchange of CO2

across the air-sea interface, in the context of developing

parameterizations for those factors that can ultimately be

remotely sensed to determine regional and global air-sea

CO2 fluxes.The Southern Ocean Gas Exchange

Experiment (SO GasEx) is being conducted in 2008 in

the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Shipboard

studies include physical, chemical, biological, and

meteorological measurements.Analyses of the data

collected during the field campaigns will continue

through 2008 and 2009.

42

Climate Change Science Program Research Plans: 2008 to 2010
Atmosphere

Atmospheric Monitoring. Measurements of radiative trace

species (including CO2 and methane), started 6 years ago

at Summit, Greenland, will continue, and measurements

will be expanded to include tracers of carbon sources

(e.g., hydrofluorocarbons) with new instrumentation.

Weekly carbon cycle flask measurements will continue

across Arctic areas in Canada, Norway, Iceland, Finland,

the North Atlantic, and Alaska.A collaborative effort of

U.S. agencies in theYukon will install instrumentation for

continuous vertical sampling within a 300-m boundary

layer.Aircraft sampling for carbon cycle gases will be

expanded to sites in Saskatchewan, Canada, and Poker Flats,

Alaska.Where possible, aircraft sampling will be added over

Churchill on Hudson Bay, Manitoba, and several other sites.

International cooperation continues with Russia at the

Baseline Observatory on the central Siberian Arctic Ocean

coast where carbon gas measurements will be conducted,

particularly the measurements of methane that could be

released from wetlands as the northern high latitudes

continue to warm. In the Antarctic, flask gas sampling

will continue at the South Pole Station, and at Halley,

Syowa, and Palmer on the Antarctic coast. Carbon flask

sampling will continue across the Drake Passage and

around Antarctica on the support ship from Ushuaia to

Palmer and the annual Chinese cruise, respectively.

The Ice in Clouds Experiment.The Ice in Clouds

Experiment (ICE) took place in November 2007, and

data analysis and interpretation are ongoing.The goal of

this study is to improve understanding of ice nucleation in

the atmosphere.This knowledge will improve the modeling

of ice cloud formation, precipitation, and climate effects.

The specific objective of ICE is to show that under given

conditions, direct measurements of the thermodynamic

and kinetic environments of clouds (temperature, humidity,

wind) and specific measurable characteristics of the aerosol,

including chemical composition, can be used to predict

the number of tiny ice particles that are initially seeded

by existing atmospheric particles. ICE used airborne

measurements of clouds along with coordinating ground

measurements in mountainous locations such as the Front

Range of Colorado andWyoming. Close collaboration

between theory, field, lab, and modeling studies are

emphasized and ongoing.

Application of the ARM Mobile Facility to Study the Aerosol

Indirect Effects in China. China has exceptionally high

aerosol loading with diverse properties whose influence

has been detected across the Pacific Rim. Because of the

rapid pace of changes in the atmospheric environment

over China, it provides a natural test bed for identifying and

quantifying the climatic effects of aerosols. Preliminary

analyses of multiple satellite data sets (MODIS and the

TRMMTropical Microwave Imager) indicate more

complex and unique aerosol indirect effects than are

found in relatively cleaner environments. Unfortunately,

China is one of the least observed regions, especially in

terms of aerosol and cloud properties.To this end, the

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ARM Mobile Facility

(AMF) is being deployed from 1 January to 31 December

2008 to investigate (1) the mechanisms of the aerosol

indirect effects in the region and the roles of aerosols in

affecting regional climate and atmospheric circulation with

a special focus on the impact of the East Asian monsoon

system, and (2) effects of long-range transport of aerosols

to the Pacific Rim and the western United States.Analyses

of data collected will follow in 2009 to 2010 and beyond.

Land

Yukon River Basin:An Arctic Benchmark.A developing

consortium of U.S. and Canadian Federal, state, and

provincial agencies, university scientists, and tribal

organizations is initiating a major campaign to understand

and predict climate-induced changes in the air, water,

land, and biota within theYukon River Basin (YRB).The

consortium will implement a prototype environmental

monitoring and research strategy that links air, water, soil,

and forest information to understand sources, sinks, and

uncertainties, and to characterize changes in carbon and

energy budgets across the Arctic, boreal, and Arctic Ocean

systems.This collaborative scientific campaign, using theYRB

and adjacent coastal ocean as a representative landscape unit,

will provide a benchmark for tracking and understanding

changes occurring throughout the Arctic and subarctic

region.

Networks of Observations. Systematic observations provide

the basis for determining if there are changes in ecosystem

processes and properties, and if there are indications that

such changes can be attributed to climate, CO2, or other

factors.The AmeriFlux Network will continue to sustain

a broad suite of observations at close to 100 U.S. sites

that provide an important data record of CO2 flux

measurement, biotic responses to climate variables,

meteorological conditions, and phenological trends that are

believed to be associated with climate forcings.This unique

and systematic set of observations is used increasingly for

validating a wide range of ecosystem, landscape, and

inverse model calculations.The network of observations

also provides information for calibrating remotely sensed

43

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
biotic and landscape observations.There also is a high

degree of coordination among other observing networks

from North America, Europe, and Asia, which collectively

are building a powerful capability for understanding the

fundamental biogeochemical and biophysical processes

needed for more comprehensive Earth system models.

Land-Oceans-Atmosphere Integration (Climate System)

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment

Program.The North American Regional Climate Change

Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is an effort funded by

multiple agencies (NSF, DOE, and National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)) to meet the

climate scenario needs of the United States and Canada.

NARCCAP aims to develop an ensemble of regional climate

change scenarios for North America, and to develop and

apply statistical methods to systematically investigate the

uncertainties in future climate projections at the regional

level. NARCCAP uses the multi-model approach to

achieve its goal.This includes the use of four global

atmosphere-ocean coupled models to provide global

climate change simulations, the use of six regional climate

models to downscale the global simulations, and the use of

two global atmosphere models in time-slice experiments

to provide climate change scenarios at the same horizontal

resolution as the regional climate models. NARCCAP

represents the first large-scale coordinated effort that

includes international participation to develop and assess

regional climate change scenarios for North America.

Users of NARCCAP model outputs include university and

Federal scientists and regional stakeholders. NARCCAP

model archives are accessible from the Earth System Grid

for analysis of regional phenomena, further downscaling to

higher spatial resolution, and assessment of climate change

impacts and uncertainties.A set of new high-resolution

climate model simulations has been completed for North

America that provides information at a scale finer than

100 km x 100 km (Han and Roads, 2004; Leung et al.,

2004; Mason, 2004;Wood et al., 2004).The ability of

these regional scale models to represent climate processes

is being assessed (see <www.narccap.ucar.edu>).These

regional and global simulations, based on models

developed at U.S. institutions, contributed to the IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report.

North American Carbon Program and Ocean Carbon and

Climate Change Science and Integration.The work of the

North American Carbon Program (NACP) is aimed at

quantifying the magnitudes and distributions of terrestrial,

freshwater, oceanic, and atmospheric carbon sources and

sinks for North America and adjacent oceans; enhancing

understanding of the processes controlling source and

sink dynamics; and producing consistent analyses of

North America’s carbon budget that explain regional and

continental contributions and year-to-year variability.This

program is committed to reducing uncertainties related

to the increase of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere and

the amount of carbon – including the fraction of fossil fuel

carbon – being taken up by NorthAmerica’s ecosystems and

adjacent oceans.The Ocean Carbon and Climate Change

(OCCC) program is focused on oceanic monitoring and

research aimed at determining how much atmospheric

CO2 is being taken up by the ocean at the present time

and how climate change will affect the future behavior of

the oceanic carbon sink.The terrestrial and ocean carbon

programs are synergistic, integrating program activities in

addressing carbon dynamics on the coastal shelves adjacent

to North America, where carbon changes in the terrestrial

system greatly influence carbon processes in the coastal

ocean.

In the coming years, the integration of terrestrial,

oceanic, and atmospheric investigations as a part of NACP

and the OCCC program will be a high priority.Assimilation

of carbon data into models is developing at scales from

regional to global as an important means of incorporating

observations into carbon cycle analyses.The goal is to

develop increasingly realistic, fully coupled carbon cycleclimate models to provide insight into potential feedbacks

between and drivers of these major Earth systems.

Integration of Observations,Research,and Modeling.The

primary goal of the Cloud and Land Surface Interaction

Campaign (CLASIC) is to improve understanding of the

physics of the early stages of cumulus cloud convection as it

relates to land surface influences, and to translate this new

understanding into improved representations of coupled

surface-atmosphere processes in global and regional

climate models. Research data from CLASIC will be

analyzed in FY 2008 and beyond to address significant

uncertainties in climate models, particularly related to

their representation of clouds and aerosols.The data from

a comprehensive array of measurements from a variety of

instrument platforms will be used to characterize the

synoptic-scale forcing at the DOE ARM Climate Research

Facility’s Southern Great Plains site and to undertake

modeling studies to establish the most important

relationships between land surface conditions and

cumulus cloud characteristics. CLASIC is designated as a

key focus for interagency coordination in FY 2007 and

FY 2008 and beyond by CCSP’s GlobalWater Cycle

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Climate Change Science Program Research Plans: 2008 to 2010
IWG.The campaign featured concurrent contributions by

NASA, NOAA, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture

(USDA) to extend CLASIC’s temporal and spatial domain

to capture the seasonal time scale and regional processes.

The resulting observational framework included groundand space-based observations, measurements from six

airplanes and one helicopter, surface and subsurface

hydrologic components, isotopic measurements, CO2

fluxes, and associated modeling. Planning and operations

for CLASIC and the DOE Atmospheric Science Program’s

Cumulus Humilis Aerosol Processing Study were

coordinated. Scientists from CLASIC and the NACP

Mid-Continent Intensive Campaign also coordinated

measurement and modeling activities.These campaigns

represent the cross-cutting activities of three CCSP science

elements: the GlobalWater Cycle,Atmospheric

Composition, and Global Carbon Cycle.

Scale andTiming of Climate Forcing. General circulation

models, including those with coupled oceans and integrated

terrestrial carbon cycles and atmospheric chemistry models,

require time-dependent trajectories of GHG emissions

and concentrations, chemically active gases, and aerosols

to be run in forecast mode. New information from carbon

cycle research provides more accurate estimates of the

rate of atmospheric CO2 increase, which translate into a

more credible forcing function for climate models. Over

the 2008 to 2010 time frame, researchers will build on

work reported in CCSP’s Synthesis and Assessment

Products 2.1a and 2.2 to develop time-dependent

trajectories that can be used by climate and atmospheric

chemistry models.

Research Plans for Goal 3:

2008 to 2010

CCSP Goal 3:Reduce uncertainty in projections of

how the Earth’s climate and related systems may

change in the future.

OVERVIEW

While a great deal is now known about the mechanisms

that affect the response of the climate system to changes

in natural and human influences, many questions remain

to be addressed and refined.There is still uncertainty

regarding precisely how much climate will change overall

and especially in specific regions.While the stated focus of

the 2003 strategic goal is on reducing uncertainty, it is

clear that improving the projections themselves and

understanding both the nature and implications of

uncertainties are equally important, in order to improve

the utility of projections of how Earth’s climate and

related systems may change in the future.A primary

objective of CCSP is to continue to develop information

and scientific capacity needed to sharpen both qualitative

and quantitative understanding through interconnected

observations, data assimilation, and modeling activities.

CCSP-supported research will continue to address basic

climate system properties and the feedbacks or secondary

changes that can either reinforce or dampen the initial

and ongoing effects of GHG and aerosol emissions and

changes in land use and land cover.The program will also

continue to address the potential for future changes in

extreme events and uncertainties regarding potential rapid

or abrupt changes in climate. CCSP will also continue to

build on existing U.S. strengths in climate research and

modeling, and to enhance capacity for development of

high-end coupled climate and Earth system models.

KEY RESEARCHTOPICS

The 2003 CCSP Strategic Plan highlights key areas in

which research progress will help to characterize,

understand, and reduce uncertainties in order to provide

substantial increases in the utility of projections of how

Earth’s climate and related systems may change in future.

Understanding the scale and timing of climate variability, the

couplings among major Earth systems, and the mechanisms

and implications of forcings that cause hydrologic changes,

drought, and changes in ocean circulation are central to

these efforts. Research improvements and outcomes

identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan include:

• Improve characterization of the circulation of the

atmosphere and oceans and their interactions

through fluxes of energy and materials

• Improve understanding of key‘feedbacks’ including

changes in the amount and distribution of water

vapor, extent of ice and the Earth’s reflectivity,

cloud properties, and biological and ecological

systems

• Increase understanding of the conditions that

could give rise to events such as rapid changes in

ocean circulation due to changes in temperature

and salinity gradients

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REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
• Accelerate incorporation of improved knowledge

of climate processes and feedbacks into climate

models to reduce uncertainty in projections of

climate sensitivity, changes in climate, and related

conditions such as sea level

• Improve national capacity to develop and apply

climate models.

In order to better characterize and reduce uncertainty

and thereby improve projections of how climate may change

in the future, it is essential to improve understanding of

basic climate system properties and interactions, including

improving characterization of the circulation and interaction

of energy in the atmosphere and oceans, and the sources

and consequences of uncertainties related to climate

feedbacks that can either reinforce or dampen the initial

effect of GHGs and aerosols.These feedbacks include

changes in ocean circulation, changes in the amount and

distribution of water vapor, changes in extent of ice and

the Earth’s reflectivity, changes in cloud properties, and

changes in biological and ecological systems that could

significantly change emissions or absorption of GHGs.

Although the historical and geologic records clearly show

evidence that the climate system can change relatively

rapidly, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the

potential for changes in extreme events. Rapid,

discontinuous changes in climate pose a special problem

since they have the potential to cause profound effects on

the environment and human well-being since the time

available for adaptation would be limited. Important

research areas include studies to understand the scale

and timing of external climate forcings (e.g., GHG

concentration); internal climate forcings (e.g., ENSO

events); the dynamics of carbon cycling through Earth’s

atmosphere, oceans, and land and the potential effects of

changes in carbon cycling on climate; and the drivers that

may potentially result in rapid, discontinuous changes in

ocean thermohaline circulation, drought frequency and

distribution, and related hydrologic changes.These research

needs are among those addressed by CCSP’s 2008 to 2010

research plans.The examples provided below are intended

to be illustrative of the breadth of the program’s activities

under Goal 3, but are not intended to be exhaustive lists

of the program’s implementation of its strategic directions

described above.

ILLUSTRATIVE GOAL 3 PLANS

Atmosphere

Creating a Historical Reanalysis of the Atmosphere of the

20th Century. Recent research has shown the feasibility of

using modern data assimilation techniques together with

observations of sea-level pressure to produce, for the first

time, a global analysis of tropospheric weather patterns at

6-hour temporal resolution that extends over the entire

20th century. Production of this historical reanalysis will

be initiated in 2008, with the goal of at least doubling the

length of current reanalysis records, which now extend

back only until 1948.This historical reanalysis will enable

researchers to address such questions as the range of natural

variability of high-impact events like floods, droughts,

hurricanes, and extratropical cyclones, and how ENSO and

other climate modes alter these events.A century-long

reanalysis will also help to clarify the origins of climate

variations that produced major societal impacts and

profoundly influenced policies, including the 1930s‘Dust

Bowl’ drought and the prolonged cool, very wet period in

the western United States early in the 20th century that

led to over-allocation of Colorado River water through the

1922 Colorado Compact.This effort will contribute to the

development of the Integrated Earth System Analysis

capability discussed later in this section.

Land

Integration of Space-Based Observations and Land Surface/

Hydrology Data Assimilation Systems.The Gravity Recovery and

Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite has demonstrated

that large-scale changes in the integrated column water

content of the combined atmosphere, land surface

(including rivers and reservoirs), soil moisture, and

groundwater system compare remarkably well with the

changes documented by the Global Land Data Assimilation

System. In FY 2008 and beyond, further research

investigations will explore whether GRACE,A-Train, and

other satellite and ground-based data can be assimilated

by the Land Information System (LIS) and/or provide

integral closure constraints (and updated process

parameterizations) to improve the output products from

LIS that can potentially be linked to various decisionsupport tools and systems involved in the management of

water resources, among other uses. Such an activity could

46

Climate Change Science Program Research Plans: 2008 to 2010
help to identify the initial components of end-to-end

capabilities bridging observations, research, modeling,

and applications.

Role of Land Surface Processes in North American

Hydroclimate.The feedbacks between soil moisture,

vegetation, and precipitation will be investigated in

observations and models with the goal of helping to

understand whether land surface conditions may be a

useful predictor in operational climate prediction at

seasonal and sub-seasonal time scales.The behavior of

snow variations and vegetation cover will be studied in

order to improve land surface representations in regional

climate models.The hydrologic and climatic effects of

crop irrigation are not well quantified and not accurately

represented in model initialization. Improvements in our

understanding of the role of irrigated croplands in North

American hydroclimatic regimes and their representation

in models will be pursued.

Advanced Ensemble Multi-Model Hydrological Prediction.

Efforts will continue to focus on the calibration and

validation of research-mode ensemble (multi-model)

forecasting techniques for surface and subsurface

hydrological parameters, especially at longer seasonal time

scales.The objective is to transfer improved hydrological

prediction techniques for operational application at the

seasonal to interannual time scale.This activity will expand

on the recently developedAdvanced Hydrological Prediction

Service (AHPS) of NOAA’s hydrological forecasting

system that includes new model calibration strategies,

distributed modeling approaches, ensemble forecasting,

data assimilation techniques, enhanced data analysis

procedures, flood forecast inundation maps, hydrological

routing models, and multi-sensor precipitation estimates.

Data will also be ingested from USGS streamflow

observations, gridded multi-sensor precipitation and

snow water equivalent estimates, and other sources. New

approaches for the remote sensing of precipitation, snow,

and other inputs will be integrated into the hydrological

forecast operation.AHPS is slated to be fully implemented

nationwide in 2013. In parallel, CCSP researchers plan to

participate in the further development of the international

Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment, which

will bring the international hydrological community

together with the meteorological community and

demonstrate how to produce reliable hydrological

ensemble forecasts that can be used with confidence by

emergency management and water resources sectors to

make decisions that have important consequences for the

economy, and for public health and safety.

Land-Oceans-Atmosphere Integration (Climate System)

Constructing a Satellite-Era Reanalysis of the Coupled

Ocean-Atmosphere System.A national capacity for Integrated

Earth System Analysis (IESA) is being developed that

extends beyond current attempts to map individual

components of the Earth system separately (see the IESA

description in the Interagency Implementation Plans at

the end of this section).Achieving this capability requires

parallel advancements in coupled Earth system modeling,

and considerable progress is being made in this latter

arena, particularly with the adoption by the research and

operational forecasting communities of a common Earth

system modeling framework.A coupled ocean-atmosphere

model is currently in operational use, and beginning in

2008 this model will serve as the basis for the first attempt

to create a reanalysis of the coupled ocean-atmosphere

system dating back to the start of the satellite era (1979)

through 2007. Development of a coupled oceanatmosphere analysis capability will also support intensified

efforts to improve the monitoring and understanding of

changes in the ocean thermohaline circulation.

Advanced Carbon Models. Research will continue to

develop carbon cycle and coupled carbon-climate models

that are more comprehensive in their treatment of significant

carbon dynamics and drivers, including those involving or

stemming from human activities.These advanced models

will incorporate multiple, interacting factors, address

time scales of decades to centuries, and integrate across

spatial scales. Carbon data assimilation at both regional

and continental scales will continue to integrate multiple

data streams including fluxes by eddy-covariance methods,

atmospheric CO2 and methane concentrations using

tower-based instruments, and aircraft and satellite remotesensing observations.An important aspect of these

integrated investigations is the potential to identify drivers

within the carbon cycle and climate system, and especially

in those systems where sensitivities of carbon processes

and stocks to climate change are high (e.g.,Arctic and

boreal systems). Modeling research focusing on the

Southern Ocean and Antarctica will capitalize on existing

and impending remote and in situ observations and will

include synthesized data sets, existing models, and data

assimilation techniques to advance the ability to quantify

southern high-latitude sensitivities and variability.

Significant advances are expected in regional and global

carbon cycle modeling.

Drought in Coupled Models Project.A new, multi-agency

activity will support research into the physical and

dynamical mechanisms of drought and the mechanisms

47

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
through which drought may change as climate changes.

Relevant issues include the role of the seasonal cycle in

drought, the impacts of drought on water supplies, and

the distinction between drought as a transient phenomena

and drying produced by long-term changes in a region’s

water balance.A broad range of model simulations will be

analyzed and evaluated in this effort, including multi-model

simulations of 20th-century climate, model projections of

future climate, paleoclimate simulations of the last glacial

maximum, and seasonal model prediction data sets.The

objective is to increase community-wide diagnostic

research into the physical mechanisms of drought and to

evaluate drought simulations by current models.This effort

will lead to more robust evaluations of model projections

of drought risk and severity, and to a better quantification

of the uncertainty in such projections.

ClimateVariability and Predictability Modeling. U.S.

CLIVAR is exploring a new approach for bringing

together observers, theorists, and high-end modelers to

improve key model deficiencies (USCLIVAR, 2002;

Bretherton et al., 2004).This approach is attempting to

significantly reduce the time lags that often exist between

observation of key climate processes and integration of

these processes into more comprehensive Earth system

models. Several high-end Earth system modeling efforts

in the United States, which involve many different,

independent research teams, are using these types of new

collaborative approaches and tools to evaluate, improve,

and integrate model components.

Research Plans for Goal 4:

2008 to 2010

CCSP Goal 4:Understand the sensitivity and

adaptability of different natural and managed

ecosystems and human systems to climate and related

global changes.

OVERVIEW

Seasonal to annual variability in climate has been

connected to impacts on ecosystems and many aspects of

human life. Longer time scale natural climate cycles and

human-induced changes in climate have additional effects.

Improving the ability to assess potential implications of

variations and future changes in climate and environmental

conditions on terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems

and physical systems (including ocean chemistry) and

human systems (especially human health, human welfare,

and communities) could enable governments, businesses,

and communities to mitigate damages and to seize

opportunities by adapting infrastructure, activities, and

plans. CCSP research will continue to examine these

multiple interacting changes and effects (e.g., changes in

climate and climate variability coupled with the CO2

‘fertilization effect,’ deposition of nitrogen and other

nutrients, changes in landscapes that affect water

resources and habitats, changes in frequency of fires

or pests, or how changes in the climate system could

impact various sectors and regions in order to identify

populations and regions that are likely to be particularly

vulnerable to specific impacts) in order to improve

knowledge of sensitivity and adaptability of systems to

climate variability and change. CCSP research will also

improve methods to integrate understanding of potential

ecological effects of different atmospheric concentrations

of GHGs, and to develop methods for aggregating and

comparing potential impacts across different sectors and

settings.

KEY RESEARCHTOPICS

The 2003 CCSP Strategic Plan identifies the key research

questions that must be answered in order to better

understand the sensitivity and adaptability of managed

and unmanaged ecosystems and human systems to climate

and related global changes. Important components of this

goal include the understanding that the potential effects of

climate variability and change on ecosystems and human

activities are a composite derived from their sensitivity and

adaptability together with complex interactions among

physical, ecological, economic, and social systems and

conditions.The development of a better understanding of

ecosystem and human system responses requires in turn

that we attain a better understanding of the contributing

factors that influence them, and are influenced by them.

Needed research outcomes identified in the CCSP

Strategic Plan include:

• Improve knowledge of the sensitivity of ecosystems

and economic sectors to global climate variability

and change

• Identify and provide scientific inputs for evaluating

adaptation options, in cooperation with missionoriented agencies and other resource managers

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Climate Change Science Program Research Plans: 2008 to 2010
• Improve understanding of how changes in

ecosystems (including managed ecosystems such

as croplands) and human infrastructure interact

over long periods of time.

A sensitive system is one that responds quickly and

perhaps dramatically to change. Fundamental to the

understanding of the potential effects of climate variability

and change on ecosystems and human activities is the

understanding that these effects will be determined both

by the sensitivity and adaptability of ecosystems and

human activities plus multiple, cumulative, complex

interactions among the physical, ecological, economic,

and social conditions that provide the framework in which

these ecosystems and human activities reside. Ecosystems

and human systems alike face potential multiple stressors

as climate changes, and system resiliency plays a strong

role in determining system response.Among the highest

priority research required to improve understanding of

sensitivity, resiliency, and adaptability is better understanding

of the ways in which terrestrial ecosystems control and

respond to changes in soil moisture, temperature, and

vegetation to exert an influence on precipitation and

surface hydrology; the effects of land use and land-use

change on sensitive systems; and the overall effects on

sensitive systems of changes in precipitation that may

result from climate variability and change.

Further priorities include a better understanding of

the potential impact of ocean acidification on coral reefs,

marine food webs, and ocean carbon balance, as well as

the implications of potentially decreased sea ice extent for

polar ecosystems and communities, and the impact of

potential freshwater injection from high-latitude regions

into the polar oceans on marine ecosystems.Additional

topics requiring study include a better understanding of

the potential consequences of various carbon management

strategies, and an understanding of potential climate change

forcings, feedbacks, and effects. CCSP will emphasize

improving the understanding of these topics at a regional

scale. Studies that address these subjects are included in

the illustrative 2008 to 2010 CCSP research plans outlined

below. (Note also that additional plans that cut across

elements of Goals 4 and 5 can be found in the Goal 5

plans later in this section.)These examples are intended

to be indicative of the breadth of the program’s activities

under Goal 4, but are not intended to be exhaustive lists

of the program’s implementation of its strategic directions

described above.

ILLUSTRATIVE GOAL 4 PLANS

Oceans

Ocean Acidification:Changing Oceans,Changing Ecosystems.

Rising atmospheric CO2 levels are altering ocean chemistry

and threatening marine biodiversity. Decreasing oceanic

pH resulting from increasing atmospheric CO2 reduces

the abilities of calcifying organisms, such as corals and

crustaceans, to form skeletons and shells. It is increasingly

urgent to understand and predict their likely responses to

increased acidity (reduced pH). Upcoming research will

include studies on evolutionary change in organisms in

response to changing chemistry, compensatory shifts in

species within functional groups and the role of biodiversity

in facilitating such shifts, effects of lower pH on coral

calcification, functional genomics studies of pH effects on

molecular regulation of calcification, and development of

models to predict effects of multiple environmental

changes on organism-, population-, and ecosystem-level

adaptation.

Climate Impacts on Marine Ecosystems. Projects will be

implemented to understand the responses of the physical

environment and ecosystems to projected climate change

scenarios and to develop predictions of the ecosystem

impacts of these changes.These projects will collect

observations, conduct research, and synthesize results to

increase the understanding of regional climate impacts on

marine ecosystems.This work will be conducted in

conjunction with the development and refinement of

biophysical indicators and models to provide living

marine resource managers the knowledge and predictive

tools necessary to adapt to the consequences of climate

change for ecosystems.

49

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
Land

Effects of Changes in Precipitation on Southwestern Ecosystems.

Climate models indicate that precipitation and soil moisture

are likely to change in the southwestern United States

during this century.To reduce scientific uncertainty about

the potential effects of such changes on the structure and

functioning of terrestrial ecosystems throughout the

region, field experiments involving in situ manipulation of

precipitation and soil moisture will be conducted in

southwestern pinyon-juniper woodlands, coast sage,

grassland, chaparral, and oak-pine forest ecosystems.

Measurements will elucidate potential effects of altered

precipitation on primary production processes, species

diversity, decomposition of soil organic matter and

related biogeochemistry, and aspects of ecological

feedbacks to the physical climate system.

Integrated Impacts on and Adaptation to Climate Change of

Terrestrial Ecosystems,Water Resources,and Agriculture.

Terrestrial ecosystems, water resources, and agriculture

represent important systems and pathways through which

climate change could be experienced. Integrated models

of drivers and systems response have generally lagged

progress on the discrete research topics and associated

models. Beginning in FY 2008, foundations will be laid

for incorporating these features into integrated models

in a way that reflects the state-of-the-art in relevant

disciplinary research. Scoping meetings will be conducted

to explore the state-of-the-art, identify methods for

incorporation, and deliver a research plan. In addition,

first steps will be taken to implement that plan, including

a preliminary evaluation of climate impacts on water

resources with implications for agricultural impacts and

adaptation.

Human Health

Climate Change and Human Health. Exposure to allergens

results in allergenic illnesses in approximately 20% of the

U.S. population. Climate change, including increased

atmospheric CO2 concentrations, could have significant

impacts on the production, distribution, dispersion, and

allergenicity of aeroallergens and the growth and

distribution of organisms that produce them (i.e., weeds,

grasses, trees, and fungi). Shifts in aeroallergen production

and, subsequently, human exposures, may result in

changes in the prevalence and severity of symptoms in

individuals with allergenic illnesses. CCSP agencies plan

to investigate this potential health effect through the

award of competitive multiyear grants as part of an

interagency program on climate change and health.

Research Plans for Goal 5:

2008 to 2010

CCSP Goal 5:Explore the uses and identify the limits of

evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities

related to climate variability and change.

OVERVIEW

In recent years, the scientific and technical community

has begun to develop a variety of products to support

management of risks and opportunities related to climate

variability and change, but much remains to be done in this

area. CCSP will foster additional studies and encourage

evaluation and learning from these experiences in order

to develop and improve decision-support processes and

products that use knowledge to the best effect, while

communicating levels of uncertainty appropriately.

Working in partnership with stakeholders and end users

of this information, CCSP will develop resources (e.g.,

observations, databases, data and model products,

scenarios, visualization products, scientific syntheses,

assessments, tools, and approaches to engage ongoing

consultative mechanisms) to support scientifically

informed policymaking, planning, risk reduction, and

adaptive management.

KEY RESEARCHTOPICS

In order to be useful to policymakers and managers,

scientific information from multiple sources must be

brought together in the form of comparative analyses,

scenarios, and tools that evaluate the impacts of potential

change and the consequences of potential short- and

long-term policies and decisions. In all cases, the

science that underpins the tools must be robust and

uncertainties must be well characterized.The 2003

CCSP Strategic Plan outlines three key approaches that

must be met in order to provide a sound basis for

decisionmaking with regard to the effects of potential

climate change:

• Support informed public discussion of issues of

particular importance to U.S. decisions by

conducting research and providing scientific

synthesis and assessment reports

50

Climate Change Science Program Research Plans: 2008 to 2010
• Support adaptive management and planning for

resources and physical infrastructure sensitive to

climate variability and change, and build new

partnerships with public and private sector entities

that can benefit both research and decisionmaking

• Support policymaking by conducting comparative

analyses and evaluations of the socioeconomic and

environmental consequences of response options.

Decision support provides the connection between

the science of understanding climate change and its

impacts, and the use of that understanding to inform the

process by which decisions are made to adapt to and

mitigate climate effects and to reduce risk and increase

resiliency in Earth systems and human communities.The

three approaches outlined above – assessments, adaptive

management, and policy-relevant analyses – provide the

bridge to put science in the hands of managers and

policymakers.The need for products that integrate and

assess climate-related changes and that provide an

evaluation of the socioeconomic and environmental

effects and consequences of potential climate change is a

major driving force behind three of CCSP’s key activities:

1) participation in and support of the IPCC Fourth

Assessment Report; 2) production of the 2006 to 2008

synthesis and assessment products, which include analyses

of impacts and consequences; and 3) CCSP involvement

in adaptive management.

Meeting the challenges that face the policymaking and

land and resource management and energy production

communities involves ongoing, real-time learning and

knowledge creation, both in a substantive sense and in

terms of the process itself, and requires that stakeholder

communities be involved throughout the process rather

than at the end.Adaptive management focuses on learning

and adapting through partnerships of managers, scientists,

and other stakeholders who learn together how to

maintain sustainable ecosystems. Decision support at

scales relevant to land and resource managers requires the

development and implementation of regionally resolved

models with accuracy sufficient to support sound

decisionmaking.The end goal of these decision-support

activities is to engage user communities and provide

managers and policymakers with the knowledge required

to understand ecological and human systems and the

uncertainties inherent in changing conditions, to manage

them under those changing conditions, and to make

decisions that maximize flexibility to reassess and adjust

their management approaches as needed.

Crucial areas in which decision support is needed

include the understanding of effects of changing climate

in coastal zones, where sea-level rise and changes in

storm intensity and frequency may occur; in urban areas

where effects on stream drainage and potential flood

impacts may be felt; in the management of aerosols and

other emissions related to air quality, ozone depletion,

and radiative transfer from the atmosphere to the land; in

understanding the effects and feedbacks of potential

climate change and variability (e.g., drought and/or

storminess) on the land surface, on water quality and

availability, and in understanding the effects of land-use

changes related to the consequences of carbon sequestration

and bioenergy development on ecological goods and

services.These are among the topics addressed by CCSP’s

2008 to 2010 research plans as illustrated below.These

examples are intended to be indicative of the breadth of the

program’s activities under Goal 5, but are not intended to

be exhaustive lists of the program’s implementation of its

strategic directions described above.

ILLUSTRATIVE GOAL 5 PLANS

Oceans and Coastal Regions

Decision Assessment in the Gulf Coast and Chesapeake Bay

Regions. Several pilot studies in the Gulf Coast region and

the Chesapeake Bay were initiated to test different

approaches to assessing the flow and use of climate

change science information in decisionmaking, the factors

and institutions that affect its use, and the types and

characteristics of decisions most sensitive to climate

change and most in need of additional reevaluation and

research in light of projected changes. CCSP researchers

plan to evaluate the results of these pilot studies to

determine the applicability of a decision assessment

approach to decisions related to water quality, aquatic

ecosystems, and air quality.

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REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
Land

Continued Development ofTools for the Assimilation of

Remote-Sensing Data intoWater Quality and SedimentTransport

and Erosion Models.Agricultural research activities in the

area of land data assimilation systems and model analysis

are focused on the efficient integration of ground-based

and remote-sensing data into critical resource and

conservation practice assessment models. Existing agency

research projects are aimed at the sequential assimilation

of surface soil moisture retrievals and vegetation indices

from microwave and visible remote sensors to constrain

crop growth and root-zone water balance models. In FY

2008 and beyond, this work will expand with an emphasis

that includes the assimilation of remote-sensing data into

distributed water quality and sediment transport and

erosion models. Particular attention will be paid to

development of data assimilation and modeling capabilities

to quantify benefits arising from the adoption of

conservation practices within agricultural watersheds.

Development of Land-Use Change Models. Developing

future land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) scenarios

and understanding drivers and feedbacks are necessary to

assess impacts on the environment.A tool to generate

future LULCC scenarios consistent with IPCC emissions

scenarios is being developed, and will be used to assess

the environmental impacts of climate and land-use change

regionally and nationally.This will improve projections of

climate and global change and contribute to understanding

of possible management risks and opportunities related to

climate change. It also contributes directly to understanding

the feedbacks between climate change, conservation

policies, and land-use and land-cover decisions.

New Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Effort

Focused on Drought. NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences

and Assessments (RISA) program, established in the

mid-1990s, supports research that addresses complex

climate-sensitive issues of concern to decisionmakers and

policy planners at a regional level. RISA research team

members are primarily based at universities, although some

of the team members are based at government research

facilities, nonprofit organizations, or private sector entities.

Traditionally the research has focused on the fisheries,

water, wildfire, and agriculture sectors, as well as climatesensitive public health and coastal restoration issues.

Under the auspices of the Coping with Drought through

Research and Regional Partnerships effort described in

the FY 2007 edition of Our Changing Planet, a new activity

will be initiated in a region not currently covered by the

RISA program.This new RISA activity will have drought

impacts research and stakeholder work as a central theme

and will provide an avenue within the chosen region for

interagency work focused on climate impacts.

Development of ModelingTools to SupportWater and

Watershed Management. Climate change presents a range of

risks and opportunities to water managers.To minimize

risk and take advantage of opportunities, tools are

necessary to promote adaptive and forward-looking

environmental management by decisionmakers at all

levels. In 2007, a new climate assessment capability was

developed within the BetterAssessment Science Integrating

Point and Non-point Sources (BASINS) watershed

modeling system.The new tool facilitates assessment of

the influence of climate variability and change on water

quantity and quality and provides a capacity to evaluate

adaptation strategies that increase the resilience of water

systems to changes in climate.A case study using the new

BASINS system is underway in 2008 and beyond to assess

the sensitivity of hydrologic and water quality endpoints

to climate change in the Monocacy River watershed, a

tributary of the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay.An

on-line decision-support capability with the USDA

Agricultural Research ServiceWater Erosion Prediction

Project (WEPP) soil erosion model also is under

development. New climate change assessment capabilities

withinWEPP will enable land managers to develop best

management practices to lessen the impacts of climate

variability and change on sediment loading from agricultural

land to streams.As this project goes forward, the need for

developing similar climate assessment capabilities for

models applicable to urban drainage and design will be

determined.

Integrated Evaluation of Climate Change,Mitigation,

Bioenergy,and Land Use. Biofuels represent a potentially

important source of energy that, depending on how they

are produced, could reduce CO2 emissions by replacing

52

Climate Change Science Program Research Plans: 2008 to 2010
fossil fuels. However, greatly expanded use of biofuels

would put pressure on food and forestry prices and could

lead to changes in land use and consequent release of

carbon from soils and vegetation.At the same time,

changes in climate, CO2 levels, and concentrations of other

pollutants such as ozone could affect the productivity of

crops (including bioenergy feedstocks), pasture, and forest

land. In 2008 and beyond, researchers will complete

linkage of a multi-sector, multi-region general equilibrium

model of the world economy with a terrestrial ecosystem

model that simulates biogeochemical processes of land

systems at a 0.5° latitude-longitude grid level.The linkage

will allow examination of the effects on GHG cycles of

disturbances associated with the conversion of unmanaged

forest and grassland to crops, pasture, or bioenergy

feedstock production.Also, because it will be fully

integrated with economic projections, the linked system

will provide the ability to evaluate the feedbacks of changing

environmental conditions to agricultural productivity, the

resultant effects on the global and regional economy,

consequent impacts on land use, and the further effects of

land use change on biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks

to atmospheric composition and climate.

Human Health

Valley Fever Public Health Decision-Support System.Valley

Fever (coccidioidomycosis) is a disease endemic to arid

regions in theWestern Hemisphere, and is caused by soildwelling fungi.Arizona is currently experiencing an

epidemic, with almost 4,000 cases in 2004, greatly

exceeding other climate-influenced diseases such

Hantavirus orWest NileVirus.The fungus responds to

changes in climate conditions, such as precipitation and

atmospheric dust. Climate models and satellite-derived

spatial data on soil moisture and land-cover disturbance

are being used to evaluate seasonal associations withValley

Fever incidence.Working in partnership with the Arizona

Department of Health Services, CCSP scientists are

developing a decision-support tool to make seasonal

orecasts of disease incidence by geographic area and display

spatial relationships with environmental conditions.

Interagency Implementation Plans

As discussed above, significant research questions remain

to be articulated and answered across all of CCSP’s goals.

While many important research questions are specific to a

single CCSP strategic goal, there are others that inherently

speak to more than one of the goals.

Each of the 13 CCSP-participating agencies has its

own priorities, plans, and relevant activities that make

invaluable contributions to CCSP, and which contribute a

large portion of CCSP’s progress toward its strategic

goals.A summary of individual agency priorities can be

found in CCSP’s annual report to Congress. However,

some research questions are so large and multivariate that

no single agency can effectively undertake to answer

them; rather, they require the cooperation of multiple

agencies and agency programs. One mechanism by which

CCSP addresses these integrated endeavors is through the

development of near-term (i.e., 1-3 year) interagency

implementation plans.An example of a near-term

interagency implementation plan that CCSP has identified

as needing intensive effort is a focus on understanding

carbon cycling and climate change in high-latitude regions,

since these regions are among the most rapidly changing

areas of the planet.Another example is the development

53

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
of an integrated Earth system analysis capability to focus

on creation of a high-quality record of the state of the

atmosphere and ocean since 1979, information that is

needed in order to improve the assimilation of land cover

and dynamic sea ice modeling into carbon and nutrient

cycling and other crucial areas.

While these implementation plans are only a part of the

overall program, they are vital mechanisms through which

CCSP integrates agency activities to create knowledge and

products that are greater than the sum of the individual

agency efforts. Because of their multivariate nature, they do

not fit easily within the preceding goal-by-goal articulations

of research plans; rather, because of their multidisciplinary,

integrative nature, each implementation priority

contributes to multiple goals.The following are selected

examples of implementation priorities for the coming

years that are inherently interagency and multi-goal. For

more specific details on these implementation priorities,

see CCSP’s annual report to Congress (CCSP, 2007b,

2008).

Enhanced Carbon Cycle Research in High-Latitude Systems.

The global carbon cycle has been one of the seven

interdisciplinary science focus areas for the U.S. Global

Change Research Program (USGCRP) for many years.

Accomplishments include completion of CCSP Synthesis

and Assessment Product 2.2, The First State of the Carbon

Cycle Report,8 as well as improved availability of CO2

measurements, plus advances in coupled carbon-climate

modeling and assimilation. Recognition that high-latitude

systems are increasingly important sources of atmospheric

carbon as regional warming occurs makes it a high priority

to improve understanding of the carbon dynamics in highlatitude systems, and the factors that may lead to changes

in those dynamics.These are crucial elements of global

carbon modeling and a priority for understanding the

linkages and feedbacks between carbon, ecosystems and

land cover, hydrology, and climate variability and change.

Quantification of Climate Forcing and Feedbacks by Aerosols,

Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases,WaterVapor,and Clouds.The need

to quantify and understand the impacts of radiative forcing

on climate has long been important to USGCRP.Advances

have been made in understanding of climate influences of

aerosols, reactive gas emissions and transformations, and

ozone in both the troposphere and stratosphere, and these

continue to be important.The next level of complexity adds

the importance of water vapor in the upper troposphere

and lower stratosphere as a key component of the

atmospheric system.Additional work is needed to further

improve quantification of the climate forcing associated

with aerosols, clouds (including cirrus), the spatially

varying shorter lived trace gases, and upper tropospheric

and lower stratospheric ozone. Recent analysis, including

that associated with the Fourth Assessment Report of the

IPCC, has emphasized this need, and a number of scientific

advances and improvements in observation and modeling

capability make the timing appropriate for an enhanced

focus on this topic.

Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA)

Capability:A Focus toward Creating a High-Quality Record of

the State of the Atmosphere and Ocean Since 1979. Just as the

public and decisionmakers can today easily access weather

maps (i.e.,‘analyses’ of the atmosphere) to support a

wide range of applications, tomorrow’s decisionmakers

need tools to visualize the evolving state of the climate

system over the entire planet, including its oceans, land

surface, and vegetation. By combining global observations

of the atmosphere, ocean, land, biosphere, and ice-covered

54

Climate Change Science Program Research Plans: 2008 to 2010

8 See <www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-2/final-report/default.htm>.
areas with models that dynamically couple these

components of the Earth system, it will be possible to

produce internally consistent maps (i.e.,‘analyses’) of the

state of the planet. IESA is in the beginning stages of

developing this capability, and the initial data assimilation

components of the project are discussed earlier in this

section of the Revised Research Plan, under Goal 3 plans.

Reanalysis activities in FY 2008 will include an improved

treatment of the hydrological cycle and efforts to extend

atmospheric reanalyses to span the entire 20th century.

Future advances in producing integrated Earth system

analyses will require progress in ongoing efforts to

construct models that properly simulate the interactions

among the physical and biogeochemical processes in the

climate system.Time series of such analyses will allow

researchers to better explain observed changes in the

climate system and will allow decisionmakers to develop

more informed options to address future changes.

Development of an End-to-End Hydrologic Projection and

Application Capability.The need to provide information to

water resource managers and other decisionmakers on

issues related to how climate affects water availability,

drought, and water quality has long been a component of

CCSP activities, and the global water cycle is one of

CCSP’s identified research elements.An end-to-end system

to provide information to water resource managers and

other decisionmakers on issues related to how climate

affects water availability, drought, and water quality

requires integration and improvement of existing research

and monitoring capabilities to reduce uncertainties in

hydrological/climate predictions.Assembling the building

blocks for the development of an end-to-end global

water cycle infrastructure and the development of an

observations-based Generalized Hydrological (water,

energy, biogeochemical) Modeling/Prediction Framework

will help to reduce uncertainties and improve hydrologic

predictions, leading to improved decision-support

information and resources.

Assessing Abrupt Change in aWarming Climate:Toward

Development of an Abrupt Change EarlyWarning System.

Changes in the climate system are considered‘abrupt’ if

they occur more rapidly than the time needed by society

and ecosystems to adapt to them (NRC, 2002). Paleoclimate

research indicates that major shifts in regional and global

climate have occurred on time scales as short as decades,

severely affecting rainfall patterns, droughts, ecosystems,

and human civilizations (IPCC, 2007). Possible impacts

range from accelerated melting of ice sheets and associated

sea-level rise, to severe and sustained droughts, to

systematic changes in weather patterns over broad regions

that may result from changes in ocean circulation.

Assessing the potential for future abrupt changes and

implementing the capability to diagnose and predict their

occurrence will require concerted efforts to improve

Earth system analysis, decadal forecasting capabilities,

reconstructions of past abrupt climate change, and

understanding of societal impacts. CCSP has a research

element aimed specifically at climate variability and

change, which has fostered considerable progress in

understanding of past abrupt climate events and the

potential causes for rapid changes, and Synthesis and

Assessment Product 3.4, Abrupt Climate Change, which

includes discussion of potential risks associated with abrupt

climate change, is scheduled for publication in 2008 (see

Appendix 1).Activities during FY 2008 to FY 2010 will

emphasize model experiments designed to test potential

mechanisms for abrupt change, and paleoclimate research

on patterns, causes, and impacts of past abrupt climate

events. Both activities will help set priorities for enhanced

monitoring with the goal of developing an abrupt change

55

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
early warning system.These

efforts are integrated with the

National Science andTechnology

Council’s Ocean Research Priorities

Plan near-term priority on the

meridional overturning circulation

of the Atlantic Ocean (NSTC,

2007).

Ecological Forecasting. Ecological forecasting brings

together modeling with observations and results from

experiments and process studies to predict the impacts of

natural and anthropogenic environmental changes on lifesustaining ecosystems. Many CCSP agencies are engaged

in activities that include components of an ecological

forecasting capability to address emerging questions.

Progress has been made in such areas as documenting

changes occurring in boreal forests.This has set the stage

for reducing scientific uncertainty about possible future

changes in primary production, biogeochemistry, and

biodiversity, and in findings that show that global oceanic

phytoplankton productivity responds to changes in upper

ocean temperature and stratification.Work in the coming

years will build upon earlier investigations to expand the

development of models linking geophysical and ecological

phenomena, to better characterize the uncertainty

associated with linked models, and thus to provide more

reliable ecological forecasts.The result will be an enhanced

understanding of ecological response to changing climate

as well as improved natural resource management and

decisionmaking.

56

Climate Change Science Program Research Plans: 2008 to 2010
VII Conclusion
VII. Conclusion

This Revised Research Plan provides – for both

programmatic and strategic science goals – a brief

summary of CCSP progress and a snapshot of CCSP plans

with illustrative examples of research, products, and

outreach as envisioned for the coming 3 years and beyond.

Taken together, these activities will build upon the work

already done to provide a solid foundation for the Nation’s

needs in understanding, adapting to, and mitigating the

effects of climate change.

For each of CCSP’s strategic goals, the Revised

Research Plan provides a series of specific examples of

research priorities and plans. The illustrative examples

in the Revised Research Plan are not intended to

provide an exhaustive list of every CCSP research

project, but rather they provide an indication of

the breadth and depth of the program’s activities.

In addition to the illustrative research examples identified,

it is fully expected that other important research topics,

yet to be determined, will emerge from future scientific

progress, events, and societal needs.

As identified in the Revised Research Plan, key

components of CCSP’s activities over the next 3 years

include the following:

• CCSP will continue to provide the basic physical

science required to understand Earth’s past and

present climate, including its natural variability,

and to improve understanding of the causes of and

uncertainties in observed variability and change at

global, continental, regional, and local scales.

CCSP remains committed to basic, ongoing

research to understand climate processes and the

forcing factors that cause changes in climate and

related systems.

• CCSP will increasingly address emerging needs

for research to more fully understand the impacts

of climate change on unmanaged and managed

ecosystems, human health and infrastructure, and

economic and other human systems.

• CCSP will continue to generate science in support

decisionmaking related to the management of risks

and opportunities of climate variability and change,

including adaptive management and mitigation

efforts, with an increased emphasis on generating

scientific results at regional and local scales.

• CCSP will place greater emphasis on communicating

with users and stakeholders (e.g., state and local

governments, academia, industry, public utilities,

and nongovernmental organizations), both to gain

the benefit of their experience, perspectives, and

input and to ensure that the results of CCSP

research, monitoring data, and assessments are

widely and easily available and accessible to

potential users of this information.

These four points distill the key similarities and

differences between the 2003 CCSP Strategic Plan and

the way forward that is identified and illustrated in the

Revised Research Plan.

This document represents one step in CCSP’s ongoing

planning process, and reflects input from CCSP’s member

agencies, the NRC through its reports, the scientific

community via CCSP IWGs and Science Steering Groups,

and comments provided by the public.As this document is

being published, longer term strategic planning efforts are

already underway.This multi-year process will culminate

in the production of CCSP’s next Strategic Plan.

This Revised Research Plan is a living document, part

of the longer range self-study to articulate progress and to

plan for the future. CCSP research necessarily evolves to

take into consideration emerging societal and scientific

needs; the changes and shifts in emphasis in major scientific

questions that have resulted from advances in knowledge

and other accomplishments; the most urgent research

needs that have emerged; and the expected outcomes,

products, and impacts for maximum societal benefits.The

examples provided herein demonstrate the work it will

undertake and the direction that CCSP will evolve in the

near future, toward increased engagement with stakeholders

and increased attention to relevance of scientific results to

decisionmaking and policymaking.

CCSP’s role in meeting the challenges of global change

is vital. CCSP adds value to Federal agency efforts in

climate change research and related activities by providing

a structure and coordination mechanism that leverages

individual agency efforts through increased cooperation,

collaboration, and the joint development of research

priorities.The CCSP framework allows Federal agencies

engaged in global change research to do more than

individual agencies could do separately, and thus to more

effectively address the Nation’s global change science

needs and coordinate and communicate activities with

those of its domestic and international research partners

and stakeholders. In contributing to this framework, the

Revised Research Plan is consistent with the CCSP

guiding vision of “a Nation and the global community

empowered with the science-based knowledge to manage

the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and

related environmental systems.”

58
Information

Regarding the

Preparation

of the Revised

Research Plan

VIII
VIII. Information

Regarding the

Preparation of the

Revised Research Plan

External Expert Reviewers

The helpful comments of the following external expert

reviewers are gratefully acknowledged:

Roberta Balstad CIESIN, Columbia University

David Behar Water Utility Climate Alliance

Kris Ebi Consultant

Dennis Hartmann University ofWashington

Bev Law Oregon State University

Margaret Leinen Climos

John Novak The Electric Power Research

Institute

Dennis Ojima The Heinz Center

Michael Prather University of California -

Irvine

David Rind NASA Goddard Institute for

Space Studies

JohnWalsh University of Alaska -

Fairbanks

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Appendices
Appendix 1:

CCSP Synthesis and

Assessment Products

See <www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/

sap-summary.php> for current information regarding

lead and contributing agencies, production, and

publication scheduling.

CCSP Goal 1:Improve knowledge of

the Earth’s past and present climate

and environment,including its

natural variability,and improve

understanding of the causes of

observed variability and change.

SAP 1.1 –TEMPERATURETRENDS INTHE

LOWER ATMOSPHERE: STEPS FOR

UNDERSTANDING AND RECONCILING

DIFFERENCES

Temperature change is a fundamental measure of climate

change.This product, which was the first to be completed,

addresses temperature changes from the surface through

the lower stratosphere and understanding of the causes of

these changes. It assesses progress made since the reports

by the National Research Council (NRC, 2000) and the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,

2001) and highlights differences between the individual

temperature records obtained by components of the

existing observational and modeling systems and

documents the potential causes of these differences.

SAP 1.2 – PAST CLIMATEVARIABILITY AND

CHANGE INTHE ARCTIC AND AT HIGH

LATITUDES

The Arctic and the high latitudes have warmed more

rapidly than almost any other region on Earth over at least

the last millennium.This warming has been accompanied

by a decrease in sea ice cover and thickness and a decrease

in ocean salinity. In addition, significant changes in the

permafrost active layer are now being detected.The

impacts on humans and ecosystems that are associated

with these changes were reported in the Arctic Climate

Impact Assessment, which was partially funded by CCSPparticipating agencies.The present synthesis and assessment

product on the Arctic and high latitudes will focus on the

state of knowledge concerning past changes in the physical

climate of this region and the implications of this record

of past changes for current and future change.This

information is vital since high-latitude regions are

projected to continue to experience the greatest warming

in the future.

SAP 1.3 – RE-ANALYSES OF HISTORICAL

CLIMATE DATA FOR KEY ATMOSPHERIC

FEATURES: IMPLICATIONS FOR ATTRIBUTION

OF CAUSES OF OBSERVED CHANGE

A reanalysis is a detailed, retrospective study of the state

of the atmosphere using a consistent numerical model of

the dynamics of the system and based on observations for

the time period of the study.This product will provide an

assessment of the capability and limitations of state-ofthe-art climate reanalysis to describe past and current

climate conditions, and the consequent implications for

scientifically interpreting the causes of climate variations

and change.The product will be in the form of a report that

summarizes the present status of national and international

climate reanalysis efforts, and discusses key research findings

on the strengths and limitations of current reanalysis

products for describing and analyzing the causes of climate

variations and trends that have occurred during the time

period of the reanalysis records (roughly the past halfcentury).The report will describe how reanalysis products

have been used in documenting, integrating, and advancing

knowledge of climate system behavior, as well as in

ascertaining significant remaining uncertainties in

descriptions and physical understanding of the climate

system.

CCSP Goal 2:Improve quantification

of the forces bringing about changes

in the Earth’s climate and related

systems.

SAP 2.1 – SCENARIOS OF GREENHOUSE GAS

EMISSIONS AND ATMOSPHERIC

CONCENTRATIONS AND REVIEW OF

INTEGRATED SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT AND

APPLICATION

This product, released in 2007, provides a new longterm, global reference for greenhouse gas stabilization

scenarios and an evaluation of the process by which

scenarios are developed and used. SAP 2.1 consists of two

parts. Part A, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and

Atmospheric Concentrations, uses computer-based scenarios to

evaluate four alternative stabilization levels of greenhouse

gases in the atmosphere and the implications for energy

66

Appendix 1
and the economy of achieving each level. Part A includes

stabilization scenarios for the six primary anthropogenic

greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide,

methane, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and

sulfur hexafluoride – and it uses updated economic and

technological data and new tools for scenario development.

Although these scenarios should not be considered

definitive predictions of future events, they provide

valuable insights for decisionmakers. Part B, Global Change

Scenarios:Their Development and Use, examines how scenarios

have been developed and used in global climate change

applications, evaluates the effectiveness of current scenarios,

and recommends ways to make future scenarios more

useful. Part B of the report concludes that scenarios can

support decisionmaking by providing insights regarding

key uncertainties, including future emissions and climate

as well as other environmental and economic conditions.

SAP 2.2 – NORTH AMERICAN CARBON

BUDGET AND IMPLICATIONS FORTHE

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE

This product provides a synthesis and integration of the

current knowledge of the North American carbon budget

(including land, atmosphere, inland waters, and adjacent

oceans) and its context within the global carbon cycle. In a

format useful to decisionmakers, it summarizes knowledge

of carbon cycle properties and changes relevant to the

contributions of, and impacts on, the United States and

the rest of the world and provides scientific information

for U.S. decision support focused on key issues for carbon

management and policy. It addresses carbon emissions;

natural reservoirs and sequestration; rates of transfer; the

consequences of changes in carbon cycling; effects of

purposeful carbon management; effects of agriculture,

forestry, and natural resource management; and

socioeconomic drivers and consequences.The report

includes an analysis of North America’s carbon budget

that documents the state of knowledge and quantifies

uncertainties.

SAP 2.3 – AEROSOL PROPERTIES ANDTHEIR

IMPACTS ON CLIMATE

Aerosols can cause a net cooling or warming within the

climate system, depending upon their physical and

chemical characteristics. In addition to these direct

effects, aerosols can also have indirect effects on radiative

forcing of the climate system by changing cloud properties.

The first phase of development of this product is to

produce major scientific reviews of the following three

topics: dependence of radiative forcing by tropospheric

aerosols on aerosol composition in the north Atlantic,

Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions; measurement-based

understanding of aerosol radiative forcing from remotesensing observations; and model intercomparison to

quantify uncertainties associated with indirect aerosol

forcing.The second-phase product will draw upon the

scientific information gathered by the development of the

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and the NRC review,

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.These community-wide

assessments of climate change (and the aerosol-climate

topic inclusively) will be drawn from in writing SAP 2.3.

SAP 2.4 –TRENDS IN EMISSIONS OF OZONEDEPLETING SUBSTANCES, OZONE LAYER

RECOVERY, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR

ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION EXPOSURE

Measurements of ozone-depleting gases in the atmosphere

have shown that the concentrations of these gases are declining in response to the agreements reached under the

Montreal Protocol.This report will provide an update on

trends in stratospheric ozone, ozone-depleting gases, and

ultraviolet radiation exposure; progress in improving model

evaluations of the sensitivity of the ozone layer to changes

in atmospheric composition and climate; and relevant

implications for the United States.This information is key

in ensuring that international agreements to phase out

production of ozone-depleting substances are having the

expected outcome – recovery of the protective ozone

layer.The report will derive most of its information from

recent international assessments of stratospheric ozone,

ozone-depleting substances, and climate.

CCSP Goal 3:Reduce uncertainty in

projections of how the Earth’s

climate and environmental systems

may change in the future.

SAP 3.1 – CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS:

AN ASSESSMENT OF STRENGTHS AND

LIMITATIONS

The topics addressed by this product are the strengths and

limitations of climate models at different spatial and

temporal scales. Its purpose is to provide information on

the results from climate models, in ways that will allow

the potential user of the information to evaluate how best

it may be applied.The product will focus on natural and

human-caused factors influencing climate variability and

change during the period from 1870 to 2000. It will

characterize sources of uncertainty in climate models and

67

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
their implications for estimating future climate change.

This product will be limited to the models and their

sensitivity, feedbacks, strengths, and limitations, rather

than making specific future projections.

SAP 3.2 – CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR

RESEARCH AND ASSESSMENT BASED ON

EMISSIONS SCENARIOS DEVELOPED

THROUGHTHE CCTP

This product will have two distinct components.The first

will be to produce climate projections for research and

assessment based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios

and atmospheric concentrations as reported in SAP 2.1a.

The second will be to assess the future climate impacts of

short-lived gaseous and particulate species.

SAP 3.3 –WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES

IN A CHANGING CLIMATE: REGIONS OF

FOCUS - NORTH AMERICA, HAWAII,

CARIBBEAN, AND U.S. PACIFIC ISLANDS

The impact of climate extremes can be severe and wideranging.There is evidence that the economic impact of

weather and climate extremes in the United States has

increased over the past several decades, but the evidence

for increases in extreme weather and climate events varies

depending on the event of interest.These events may be

related to temperature parameters (severe freezes, heat

waves), precipitation (wet spells, heavy precipitation

events, droughts, ice and hail, snow cover and depth), or

tropical and extratropical storm frequency. Identifying

recent changes and trends in such parameters will be a

focus of the report, as well as identifying what can be said

about future changes. Since extreme weather and climate

events on a global scale are regularly addressed in

international assessments, this product will focus on

weather and climate extremes primarily across Canada,

Mexico, and the United States.

SAP 3.4 – ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE

The paleoclimate record reveals that Earth’s climate can

change rapidly and strongly between different stable states.

Various scenarios portray future abrupt climate change

large enough to pose a significant challenge to society.The

goal of this product is to review and synthesize current

understanding of abrupt climate change and to identify

gaps in knowledge.The report will integrate information

from the paleoclimate record, the instrumental record,

and numerical model-based studies at various spatial

scales. Key identified risks, such as changes in ocean

thermohaline circulation and alteration of terrestrial

hydrologic conditions (e.g., the location or amount of

precipitation) will receive special attention because the

potential impacts on society are large.

CCSP Goal 4:Understand the

sensitivity and adaptability of

different natural and managed

ecosystems and human systems to

climate and related global

changes.

SAP 4.1 – COASTAL ELEVATION AND

SENSITIVITYTO SEA-LEVEL RISE

This product will examine the vulnerability of coastal

areas in the U.S. mid-Atlantic states to sea-level change.

Specific questions to be addressed include identifying

which areas are low enough to be inundated by tides, how

floodplains would change due to a changing climate,

which areas might be subject to erosion, and locations

where wetlands will be able to migrate inland versus

locations where shores will be protected.The product

will examine the implications of sea-level rise, including

impacts on population and economic activity in vulnerable

areas, costs of shore protection, ecological effects, flood

damages, public access to modified shore areas, cases

where sea-level rise justifies policy changes, options being

considered by conservancies and governments, and lessons

from the unfolding consequences of the 2005 hurricanes

in the Gulf Coast region.

SAP 4.2 –THRESHOLDS OF CHANGE IN

ECOSYSTEMS

There is a body of ecosystems research that focuses on

enhancing understanding of climate change impacts on

ecosystems (and vice versa) and developing the capability

to predict potential impacts of future climate change.

Increasing emphasis is being placed on climate-related

thresholds that could result in discontinuities or sudden

changes in ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources.

Discontinuities in responses of ecosystems and resources

are difficult to predict, and may significantly affect human

societies that depend on ecosystem goods and services.

Improved understanding of such sudden changes is essential

to managing ecosystems and resources in the face of

climate change.This report will synthesize the present

state of scientific understanding regarding thresholds of

change that trigger sudden changes in ecosystems and

climate-sensitive resources.The report will develop a

conceptual framework for characterizing sudden changes,

68

Appendix 1
and synthesize peer-reviewed studies that provide the best

available evidence for defining circumstances that trigger

discontinuities in response to climate change.

SAP 4.3 –THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

ON AGRICULTURE, BIODIVERSITY, LAND, AND

WATER RESOURCES

This report addresses the effects of climate change on

agriculture, forestry, land and water resources, and

biodiversity.Air and water temperature, precipitation,

and related climate variables are fundamental regulators

of biological processes. For this reason, human-induced

climate change has the potential to affect the condition,

composition, structure, and function of ecosystems. Such

changes may also alter the linkages and feedbacks between

ecosystems and the climate system.Additionally,

ecosystems produce a wide array of goods and services

valued by humans and in many cases essential for human

survival and property. Climate-related changes in

ecosystems and other key resources could have impacts

on human communities and economic conditions.

SAP 4.4 – PRELIMINARY REVIEW OF

ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR CLIMATESENSITIVE ECOSYSTEMS AND RESOURCES

Climate is a dominant factor influencing the distribution,

abundance, structure, and function of, and services

provided by, ecosystems. Many ecosystems are thus

vulnerable to future changes in climate.The goal of

adaptation is to reduce these risks of adverse ecological

outcomes through management activities that increase the

resilience of these systems to climate change. Resilience is

defined here as the magnitude of disturbance that can be

absorbed by a system before it shifts from one stable state

(or stability domain) to another and the speed of return

of a system to equilibrium after a disturbance has

occurred.This report provides a review and synthesis of

information on adaptation options for selected climatesensitive ecosystems in order to aid in designing

management strategies that facilitate adaptation, provides

examples of how to implement strategies in specific

places, and identifies issues and challenges associated with

implementation of adaptation options.

SAP 4.5 – EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

ENERGY PRODUCTION AND USE INTHE

UNITED STATES

This report summarizes what is currently known about

potential effects of climatic change on energy production

and use in the United States. It focuses on three questions:

(1) How might climatic change affect energy use in the

United States, (2) how might climatic change affect

energy production and supply in the United States, and

(3) how might climatic change have other effects that

indirectly shape energy production and use in the United

States? Great care was taken in answering these questions,

for two reasons. One, the available research literature on

these key questions is limited, supporting a discussion of

issues but not providing definite answers.Two, as with

many other aspects of potential effects of climatic change

on the United States, the effects on energy production

and use depend on more than climatic change alone;

other potentially important factors include patterns of

economic growth and land use, patterns of population

growth and distribution, technological change, and social

and cultural trends that could shape policies and actions,

individually and institutionally.

SAP 4.6 – ANALYSES OFTHE EFFECTS OF

GLOBAL CHANGE ON HUMAN HEALTH AND

WELFARE AND HUMAN SYSTEMS

This product examines the effects of global change on

human systems.The impacts of climate variability, climate

change, shifting patterns of land use, and changes in

population patterns are human problems, not simply

problems for the natural or the physical world.This

SAP examines the vulnerability of human health and

socioeconomic systems to global environmental change

across three areas of potential impacts and adaptations:

human health, human settlements, and human welfare. It

addresses the questions of how, where, and when climate

variability and change will affect U.S. social systems.The

challenge for this project was to assess risks associated

with health, welfare, and settlements and to identify and

develop timely adaptive strategies to address human

vulnerabilities.The primary goals for adaptation to climate

change and variability focus on managing significant risks

proactively when possible; establishing protocols to detect

and measure risks; and leveraging technical and institutional

adaptive capacity to address new climate risks, especially

as they exceed conventional adaptive measures.

SAP 4.7 – IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND

VARIABILITY ONTRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS

AND INFRASTRUCTURE: GULF COAST STUDY

This product addresses the potential effects of climate

variability and change on transportation infrastructure

and systems in the central Gulf Coast of the United

States.The purpose of this study was to increase the

knowledge base regarding the risks and sensitivities of

transportation infrastructure to climate variability and

69

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
change, the significance of these risks, and the range of

adaptation strategies that may be considered to ensure a

robust and reliable transportation network. Implications

for all transportation modes – surface, marine, and

aviation – are addressed.The three-phase study focuses on

the Gulf Coast, and assesses the significant risks to

transportation, develops methodology to be applied in

other geographic locations, identifies potential strategies

for adaptation, and develops decision-support tools to

assist transportation decisionmakers in incorporating

climate-related trend information into transportation

system planning, design, engineering, and operational

decisions.

CCSP Goal 5:Explore the uses and

identify the limits of evolving

knowledge to manage risks and

opportunities related to climate

variability and change.

SAP 5.1 – USES AND LIMITATIONS OF

OBSERVATIONS, DATA, FORECASTS, AND

OTHER PROJECTIONS IN DECISION SUPPORT

FOR SELECTED SECTORS AND REGIONS

The product will focus on characterizing a subset of

the observations from remote-sensing and in situ

instrumentation that is of high value for decisionmaking.

The product will characterize observational capabilities

that are currently or could potentially be used in decisionsupport tools, catalog a subset of ongoing decision-support

activities that use these capabilities, and evaluate a limited

number of case studies of these decision-support activities.

The detailed evaluation of decision-support activities and

demonstration projects will provide information to agencies

and organizations responsible for developing, operating,

and maintaining selected decision-support processes and

tools.The evaluation will also provide information on the

nature of interactions between users and producers of

climate science information, approaches for accessing

science information, and assimilation of scientific

information in the decisionmaking process.The product

will include an on-line catalog of decision-support

demonstration projects with interactive links, which will

be updated as additional experiments are conducted and

new approaches to incorporating and benchmarking the

application of observations and other global change

research products evolve.

SAP 5.2 – BEST PRACTICE APPROACHES FOR

CHARACTERIZING, COMMUNICATING, AND

INCORPORATING SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY

IN DECISIONMAKING

This product will address the issue of uncertainty and its

relationship to science, assessment, and decisionmaking.

Specifically, the product is intended to help improve the

quality and consistency of information about scientific

uncertainty presented to decisionmakers and other users

of CCSP reports by identifying‘best practice’ options

recommended in the literature on this subject; to improve

communication between scientists and users of the

products by providing recommendations for addressing

uncertainty; and to provide a brief overview of the

literature on approaches for communicating and

considering uncertainty related to climate.

SAP 5.3 – DECISION-SUPPORT EXPERIMENTS

AND EVALUATIONS USING SEASONALTO

INTERANNUAL FORECASTS AND

OBSERVATIONAL DATA

This product will concentrate on the water resource

management sector. It will describe and evaluate current

forecasts, assess how forecasts are being used in decision

settings, and evaluate decisionmakers’ level of confidence

in these forecasts.The participants in the development of

this product (primarily consisting of government officials,

researchers, and users) will evaluate forecasts as well as

their delivery, to identify options for improving

partnerships between the research and user communities.

It will inform decisionmakers about the experiences of

others who have experimented with the use of seasonal

and interannual forecasts and other observational data;

inform climatologists and social scientists about how to

advance the delivery of decision-support resources that

use the most recent forecast products, methodologies,

and tools; and inform science managers as they plan for

future investments in research related to forecasts and

their role in decision support.

70

Appendix 1
Appendix 2: Selected

Observing Missions and

Networks and Data

Management Systems

Relevant to CCSP Research

The United States is contributing to the development

and operation of several global observing systems that

collectively attempt to combine data streams from both

research and operational observing platforms to provide a

comprehensive measure of climate system variability and

climate change processes.These systems provide a baseline

Earth-observing system and include National Aeronautics

and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and

AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA), and U.S. Geological

Survey (USGS) Earth-observing satellites and extensive

in situ observational capabilities. CCSP also supports

several ground-based measurement activities that provide

the data used in studies of the various climate processes

necessary for better understanding of climate change.

U.S. observational, monitoring, and data management

activities contribute significantly to several international

observing systems including the Global Climate Observing

System principally sponsored by theWorld Meteorological

Organization (WMO); the Global Ocean Observing

System sponsored by the United Nations Educational,

Scientific, and Cultural Organization’s Intergovernmental

Oceanographic Commission (IOC); and the Global

Terrestrial Observing System sponsored by the United

Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.The latter

two have climate-related elements being developed

jointly with the Global Climate Observing System.The

United States is also playing an important role in the

Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS),

which is an international framework for coordinating and

sustaining the aforementioned (and other) systems.The

following list is not intended to be exhaustive, but to

provide examples of key observing systems and networks

and data management systems relevant to CCSP research.

Selected Missions,Observing

Capabilities,and Networks

AmeriFlux. Based on systematic eddy-covariance

measurements,AmeriFlux Network sites provide data on

exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapor, and

energy between air and plant canopies for a range of

different types of ecosystems.Time averages of these

continuous measurements are expressed as net ecosystem

exchange (NEE) for any selected time period, and the

annual CO2 NEE, for example, is often termed net

ecosystem production (NEP), or the quantity of carbon

gained or lost by the system. Some AmeriFlux data

products also include measures of respiration, which

when combined with NEE (CO2) enable estimates of

gross primary production (GEP). Both NEP and GEP are

important for calculating terrestrial carbon budgets and

for carbon cycle analysis and modeling.AmeriFlux data

products also include a number of corollary biometric

and micrometeorological measurements that are used to

understand carbon cycle processes. See

<public.ornl.gov/ameriflux/>.

Aquarius.Aquarius is a satellite mission to measure

global sea surface salinity.The average ocean salinity is

about 35 parts per 1,000.The instruments that are part of

this satellite mission will measure changes in sea surface

salinity over the global oceans to a precision of 0.2 parts

per 1,000 (equivalent to about one-sixth of a teaspoon of

salt in one gallon of water). By measuring global sea

surface salinity with high spatial and temporal resolution,

Aquarius will answer long-standing questions about how

oceans respond to climate change and the water cycle,

including changes in freshwater input and output to the

ocean associated with precipitation, evaporation, ice

melting, and river runoff.Aquarius is a collaboration

between NASA and CONAE, the Argentine space agency,

with an expected launch date in 2010.

The Arctic Observing Network.The Arctic Observing

Network (AON), developed largely as a research system

by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and NOAA, is

envisioned as a system of atmospheric, land, and oceanbased environmental monitoring capabilities – from

ocean buoys to satellites – that will significantly advance

observations of Arctic environmental conditions in order

to better understand the wide-ranging series of significant

and rapid changes occurring in the Arctic. In 2008, aircraft

flights over the North Slope of Alaska will measure

temperature, humidity, total particle number, aerosol size

distribution, cloud condensation nuclei concentration, ice

nuclei concentration, optical scattering and absorption,

vertical velocity, cloud liquid water and ice contents,

cloud droplet and crystal size distributions, cloud particle

shape, and cloud extinction.These airborne data will be

coupled with ground-based measurements to evaluate

model simulations of Arctic climate. In addition, NASA

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REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite

Observations (CALIPSO) lidar and CloudSat radar are

being combined with data from the A-train configuration

of the Aqua,Aura, and Parasol satellites orbiting in

formation to enable systematic observation of the key

climate forcing of aerosol indirect effects, climate

sensitivity of cloud feedbacks, and polar climate response

of difficult-to-observe polar clouds.A number of longterm observing projects are now an integral part of AON,

which comprises a total of 34 projects.

Argo Profiling Array.Argo profiling floats, measuring

upper ocean temperature and salinity, have now been

deployed in all oceans.The United States operates

approximately half of the global array in cooperation with

22 countries operating the other half.The floats drift at

depth and periodically rise to the sea surface, collecting

data along the way, and report their observations in realtime via satellite communications.This global data set is

used together with complementary data from satellites

and other in situ systems to document ocean heat content

and global sea-level change.

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program.The

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program is

the largest global change research program supported by

the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).The primary goal

of the ARM Program is to improve the treatment of cloud

and radiation physics in global climate models in order to

improve their climate simulation capabilities.To achieve

this goal,ARM scientists and researchers around the

world use continuous data obtained through the ARM

Climate Research Facility.This scientific user facility

provides a unique asset for interdisciplinary global change

research among the national and international scientific

communities. In addition, the ARM mobile facility (AMF)

is used to study cloud and radiation processes in multiple

climatic regimes.AMF can be deployed to sites around

the world for durations of 6 to 18 months. Data streams

produced by AMF are available to the atmospheric

community for use in testing and improving

parameterizations in global climate models. Using

measurements from the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud

Experiment, a data set has been created that allows climate

and cloud models to simulate Arctic weather, allowing for

direct comparison of observations and model simulations.

Bermuda AtlanticTime-series Site (BATS) and Hawaiian

OceanTime-series (HOT). BATS and HOT are two oceanic

sites for monitoring the carbon system of the ocean in

response to climate change. BATS and HOT have been

funded by NSF since 1988/1989.The primary research

objectives of these ocean measurement programs are to

establish and maintain deep-water hydrostations for

observing and interpreting physical and biogeochemical

variability, through repeat measurements of a suite of core

parameters at regular intervals, followed by compilation of

the data and rapid distribution to the scientific community.

BATS and HOT have provided a baseline of consistent

measurement and analysis of hydrographic and biological

parameters throughout the water column, including a focus

on carbon exchange between the oceans and atmosphere.

Among other results, they have contributed substantially

to the understanding of carbon removal pathways from the

surface ocean. See <www.bios.edu/research/bats.html>

and <hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/hot_jgofs.html>.)

Climate Reference Network.The U.S. Climate Reference

Network (USCRN) is a network of climate stations now

being developed as part of a NOAA initiative. Its primary

goal is to provide future long-term homogeneous

observations of temperature and precipitation that can be

coupled to long-term historical observations for the

detection and attribution of present and future climate

change. Data from USCRN are used in operational climate

monitoring activities and for placing current climate

anomalies into a historical perspective. USCRN will also

provide the United States with a reference network that

meets the requirements of the Global Climate Observing

System (GCOS). If fully implemented, the network will

consist of about 110 stations nationwide.

Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA).As the Nation’s

continuous forest census, the FIA program projects how

forests are likely to appear 10 to 50 years from now, to

enable the evaluation of whether current forest management

practices are sustainable in the long run and to assess

whether current policies will allow the next generation to

enjoy America’s forests. FIA reports on status and trends

in forest area and location; the species, size, and health of

trees; total tree growth, mortality, and removals by harvest;

wood production and utilization rates by various products;

and forest land ownership. FIA is managed by the U.S.

Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service, and

includes periodic measurements of forest area and location;

species, size, and health of trees; forest land ownership;

and soil, understory vegetation, tree crown conditions,

coarse woody debris, and lichen community composition

(on a sub-sample of plots), all of which are parameters of

high significance to carbon inventory and cycling. See

<www.fia.fs.fed.us/>.

Global Climate Observing System. GCOS is a long-term,

user-driven system that integrates global networks placed

72

Appendix 2
strategically across the atmospheric , oceanic, and

terrestrial domains, permitting better understanding of

climate variability and change and supporting research

toward improved understanding, modeling, and prediction

of the climate system. GCOS addresses the total climate

system including physical, chemical, and biological

properties, and atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial,

hydrologic, and cryospheric components. GCOS builds

upon, and works in partnership with, other existing and

developing observing systems such as theWMO Global

Observing System and Global AtmosphereWatch, the

Global Ocean Observing System, and the GlobalTerrestrial

Observing System. Many U.S. observation networks and

platforms contribute to GCOS. It includes in situ, airborne,

and space-based observational components.

Global Earth Observation System of Systems.The purpose

of GEOSS is to achieve “comprehensive, coordinated, and

sustained” observations of the Earth system in order to

improve monitoring of the changing state of the planet,

increase understanding of complex Earth processes, and

enhance the prediction of the impacts of environmental

change. GEOSS aims to enable all nations to benefit from

access to timely, quantitative, and high-quality long-term

global data and information as a basis for sound

decisionmaking. GEOSS provides the overall conceptual

and organizational framework to build toward integrated

global Earth observations to meet user needs. It is a

‘system of systems’ consisting of existing and future Earth

observation systems, supplementing but not supplanting

the mandates and governance arrangements of those

systems.The established Earth observation systems,

through which many countries cooperate as members of

the United Nations specialized agencies and programs and

as contributors to international scientific programs,

provide essential building blocks for GEOSS.The benefits

to society cannot be achieved without data sharing.The

success of GEOSS depends on data and information

providers accepting and implementing a set of

interoperability arrangements, based on non-proprietary

standards with preference given to formal international

standards.

Global Precipitation Measurement Mission. Motivated by

the successes of theTropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

(TRMM) satellite and recognizing the need for a more

comprehensive global precipitation measuring program,

NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency conceived a new Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM)

Mission.A fundamental scientific goal of the GPM Mission

is to make substantial improvements in global precipitation

observations, especially in terms of measurement accuracy,

sampling frequency, spatial resolution, and coverage –

thus extendingTRMM’s rainfall time series.To achieve

this goal, the mission will consist of a constellation of

low-elevation Earth-orbiting satellites carrying various

passive and active microwave measuring instruments.The

record of precipitation has been extended in recent years

to include oceanic as well as land areas using satellite

measurements fromTRMM.This is an example of a key

climate data set to be maintained and extended into the

future.The GPM Mission will be used to address important

issues central to improving the predictions of climate,

weather, and hydrometeorological processes; to stimulate

operational forecasting; and to underwrite an effective

public outreach and education program, including nearreal-time dissemination of televised regional and global

rainfall maps.

GLOBALVIEW. GLOBALVIEW is designed to enhance

the spatial and temporal distribution of atmospheric

observations of CO2 and methane. Measurement records

from many international laboratories are integrated and

extended to produce a globally consistent cooperative

data product. GLOBALVIEW is specifically intended as a

tool for use in carbon cycle modeling studies.The data

product includes synchronized smoothed time series

derived from continuous and discrete land surface, ship,

aircraft, and tower observations; weight files; summaries

of seasonal patterns, diurnal patterns (where relevant),

sampling time-of-day (where available), and atmospheric

variability; the derived marine boundary layer reference

matrix used in the data extension process; uncertainty

estimates; and extensive documentation.Time series

measurements of CO2 from surface-based global networks

(including AmeriFlux and GLOBALVIEW) are used to

document carbon fluxes at particular locations, drive

models of regional and global carbon fluxes, and provide

the basis for top-down inversion estimates of carbon

sources and sinks. See www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/

globalview/>.

Groundwater Climate Response Network.The USGSWater

Resources Program, in cooperation with hundreds of

Federal, state, and local agencies, collects nationally

consistent information about the Nation’s groundwater

resources and helps define and manage those resources.

The USGS maintains a network of wells to monitor the

effects of droughts and other climate variability on

groundwater levels.The Groundwater Climate Response

Network consists of a national network of about 140

wells monitored as part of the Groundwater Resources

73

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
Program, supplemented by more than 200 wells

monitored as part of the CooperativeWater Program that

meet the same network criteria.

Historical Climatology Network.The U.S. Historical

Climatology Network (USHCN) is a high-quality,

moderate-sized data set of daily and monthly records of

basic meteorological variables from over 1,000 observing

stations across the 48 contiguous United States. Daily

data include observations of maximum and minimum

temperature, precipitation amount, snowfall amount, and

snow depth from 1,062 stations; monthly data consist of

monthly averaged maximum, minimum, and mean

temperature and total monthly precipitation from 1,221

stations. Most of these stations are U.S. Cooperative

Observing Network stations located generally in rural

locations, while some are NationalWeather Service First

Order stations that are often located in more urbanized

environments.The USHCN has been developed over the

years at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

to assist in the detection of regional climate change and to

analyze U.S. climate.

Integrated Ocean Observing System.The Integrated Ocean

Observing System (IOOS) is the U.S. coastal-observing

component of the Global Ocean Observing System

(GOOS) and is envisioned as a coordinated national and

international network of observations, data management,

and analyses that systematically acquires and disseminates

data and information on past, present, and future states of

the oceans.A coordinated IOOS effort is being established

by NOAA via a national IOOS Program Office co-located

with the <Ocean.US> consortium of offices consisting of

NASA, NSF, NOAA, and the Navy.The IOOS observing

subsystem employs both remote and in situ sensing.

Remote sensing includes satellite-, aircraft-, and landbased sensors, power sources, and transmitters. In situ

sensing includes platforms (ships, buoys, gliders, etc.),

in situ sensors, power sources, sampling devices,

laboratory-based measurements, and transmitters.

Integrated Ocean Drilling Program.The Integrated Ocean

Drilling Program (IODP) is an international marine

research program that explores the Earth’s history and

structure as recorded in seafloor sediments and rocks,

and monitors sub-seafloor environments. IODP builds

upon earlier successes of the Deep Sea Drilling Project

and Ocean Drilling Program, which revolutionized our

view of Earth history and global processes through ocean

basin exploration. IODP greatly expands the reach of

these previous programs by using multiple drilling

platforms, including riser, riserless, and mission-specific,

to achieve its scientific goals.The first phase of the IODP

produced high-resolution records of climate over past

millennia from marine sediments. Recent examples

include the first recovery of central Arctic Ocean marine

sediment records and expeditions to drill methane

hydrates, which may have been a cause of past abrupt

climate change. Rapidly accumulating marine sediments

remain the longest, most continuous record of past climate

and environmental variability found on the planet.

International PolarYear Observations.A wide array of

polar climate observations continues to be a CCSP focus

as part of the International PolarYear (IPY). Combining

orbital, airborne, ship-borne, and in situ measurements,

the purpose of these observations is to provide the highquality records needed to detect potential future climate

changes in the cryosphere. IPY aims to leave a legacy of

enhanced observational systems, facilities, and infrastructure,

within the frameworks of existing and new long-term

international research programs, including many CCSP

activities. IPY observations and coordination activities

include ocean observing systems in the Arctic and Southern

Oceans, coordinated acquisition of satellite data produced

from cooperating space agencies, and enhanced operational

and community monitoring systems for astronomy, SunEarth physics, atmospheric chemistry, meteorology,

biodiversity, permafrost, glaciers, and geophysics. IPY

projects will collect a broad-ranging set of samples, data,

and information, and share that data and information through

new access and information tools. IPY efforts include

engagement with northern communities as full partners

in research, analysis, and assessment, and the provision of

rigorous scientific information to decisionmakers.

Landsat Data Continuity Mission.The importance of

Landsat data continuity was a priority for FY 2007 and

was emphasized in the FY 2007 edition of Our Changing

Planet. Landsat Data Continuity Mission planning continues

toward a proposed 2010 launch. In October 2006, NASA

and USGS announced the selection and research objectives

for the Landsat ScienceTeam.The ScienceTeam will

recommend strategies for the effective use of archived data

from Landsat sensors and investigate the requirements for

future sensors to meet the needs of Landsat users, including

the needs of policymakers at all levels of government.The

team will cooperate with other Earth-observing missions,

both nationally and internationally.This will improve

quantification of drivers and atmospheric forcings of

climate change, contribute to improved projections of

this change, and provide improved understanding of the

present environment, its variability, and how it is changing.

74

Appendix 2
Long-Term Ecological Research Sites (LTER).There are 26

LTER sites whose mission is to provide the scientific

community, policymakers, and society with the knowledge

and predictive understanding necessary to conserve,

protect, and manage the Nation’s ecosystems, their

biodiversity, and the services they provide. See

<www.lternet.edu>.

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer.The

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

(MODIS) instrument has been operating successfully on

NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS)Terra mission for

over 6 years and on the Aqua mission for over 4 years.The

MODIS instruments provide daily global observations of

atmospheric, land, and ocean features with unprecedented

detail.The capability of MODIS to observe global

processes and trends is leading to better understanding of

natural and anthropogenic effects on the Earth-atmosphere

system, and to better performance of general circulation

models. More than 100‘Direct-Broadcast’ stations are

now operating across the globe, enabling MODIS data to

be obtained in near-real-time.About 800 user agencies or

entities worldwide routinely use MODIS observations for

regional applications.

National Phenology Network.The mission of the USA

National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is to facilitate

systematic collection and free dissemination of phenological

data from across the United States.This is primarily being

done to support scientific research concerning interactions

among plants, animals, and the lower atmosphere,

especially the long-term impacts of climate change.

National Streamflow Information Program.The USGS

National Streamflow Information Program (NSIP) is a

nationally consistent streamgaging network with stable

long-term monitoring sites and a rigorous program of

data quality assurance, management, archiving, and

synthesis.The five components of NSIP follow: (1) an

enhanced nationwide base streamgage network;

(2) intense data collection during floods and droughts,

and additional analysis of these data; (3) periodic regional

and national assessments of streamflow characteristics;

(4) enhanced information delivery; and (5) methods

development and research. NSIP produces multi-purpose,

unbiased surface water information that is readily accessible

to all users.

NOAA Cooperative Air Sampling Network.The NOAA

cooperative air sampling network is an international

effort to obtain discrete, weekly surface samples from

NOAA baseline observatories, cooperative sampling sites,

and commercial ships. Samples, collected from more than

60 global sites, approximately 10 of which are in North

America, are analyzed for CO2, methane, carbon monoxide,

molecular hydrogen, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride,

and for stable isotopes of CO2 and methane. Measurement

data are used to identify long-term trends, seasonal

variability, and spatial distributions of carbon cycle gases.

NOAATallTowers.The NOAATallTower observational

system was established to extend the monitoring of longlived trace gases to continental areas.Variations of trace

gases, especially CO2, are largest near the ground, so

using tall (>400 m) transmitter towers as platforms for

in situ and flask sampling for atmospheric trace gases

provides a direct link between ecosystem processes and

the atmospheric imprint.

The Ocean Research Interactive Observatory Networks.The

Ocean Research Interactive Observatory Networks

(ORION) is a program that will focus and integrate the

science, technology, education, and outreach of an emerging

network of ocean observing systems.A major component

of ORION is the Ocean Observatories Initiative. See

<www.oceanleadership.org/ocean_observing>.

Ocean SurfaceTopography Mission.The accurate, climatequality record of sea surface topography measurements –

started in 1992 with the OceanTOPography EXperiment

(TOPEX)/Poseidon and continued in 2001 by the Jason

satellite mission – will be extended with the Ocean

SurfaceTopography Mission (OSTM).These missions have

provided accurate estimates of regional sea-level change

and of global sea-level rise. Ocean topography measurements

from these missions have elucidated the role of tides in

ocean mixing and maintaining deep-ocean circulation.

Furthermore, quantitative determination of ocean heat

storage from satellite measurements together with

measurements from the global array of temperature/

salinity profiling floats known as Argo have confirmed

climate model predictions of the Earth’s energy imbalance

that is primarily due to greenhouse gas forcing.The high

levels of absolute accuracy and cross calibration make

these missions uniquely suited for climate research. OSTM

is a collaboration among NASA, NOAA, the French space

agency CNES, and the European meteorological agency

EUMETSAT, and has a planned 2008 launch.

Orbiting Carbon Observatory.The Orbiting Carbon

Observatory (OCO) is a new mission, expected to launch

in 2008, that will provide the first dedicated, space-based

measurements of atmospheric CO2 (total column) with the

precision, resolution, and coverage needed to characterize

75

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
carbon sources and sinks at regional scales and to quantify

their variability.Analyses of OCO data will regularly

produce precise global maps of CO2 in the Earth’s

atmosphere that will enable more reliable projections of

future changes in the abundance and distribution of

atmospheric CO2 and studies of the effect that these

changes may have on the Earth’s climate.

Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) and Snowpack

Telemetry (SNOTEL). SCAN is an in situ real-time meteorburst telemetry observation network. SCAN and

SNOTEL data are used in data assimilation for water

supply forecasting; drought assessments; flood response;

integrated pest management; land productivity in relation

to soil moisture and temperature changes; and help in

predicting shifts in wetlands, crop yields, and other

ecosystems, and could serve as ground-truth for satellite

soil moisture information. SCAN data are being examined

for use in modeling carbon fluxes.At each SCAN site,

minimum measurements include precipitation, relative

humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and barometric

pressure above ground, and soil moisture and soil

temperature at several depths below the surface.

SNOTEL site measurements include snow depth and

moisture content. See <www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov>.

SolarVariability:Glory.The Glory mission will continue

to be developed in FY 2008, and is planned to launch in

2009. It will carry aTotal Irradiance Monitor (TIM) based

on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE)

TIM design, with the same high-precision phase-sensitive

detection capability. Glory will also carry an Aerosol

Polarimeter Sensor (APS), which will improve ability to

distinguish among aerosol types by measuring the

polarization state of reflected sunlight. BothTIM and APS

will provide key measurements of the minimum of Solar

Cycle 24.This less-active portion of the 11-year solar

cycle is especially crucial in estimating any long-term

trends in solar output – a key to understanding the 20thcentury context of global change, as the Sun is the single

entirely‘external’ forcing of the climate system that is

unaffected by climate change itself.

Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment.The NASA

SORCE mission has provided new insights into solar

forcing, with SORCE making the most accurate

measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI) and the

first daily observations of the solar spectral irradiance in

the visible and near-infrared. During the past 11-year

solar cycle, the Sun’s increased brightness at solar maximum

warmed the Earth’s atmosphere by about 0.1°C in the

10 km nearest to the surface (the troposphere), 1°C near

50 km in altitude (at the top of the stratosphere), and

400°C at an altitude of 500 km in the thermosphere.

Currently the Sun is at solar minimum, and theTSI

observations indicate that the solar brightness has decreased by about 0.02% over the past decade.This result

suggests that the solar forcing could reduce slightly the

larger global warming trend due to human-induced

greenhouse gases (e.g., burning of fossil fuels). Continued

observations of solar irradiance, such as by SORCE, are

key to understanding the long-term solar changes that

provide a natural forcing to climate change.

Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA)Tropical Atmosphere/Ocean (TAO) Array.TheTOGA program, a 10-year

study (1985-1994) of climate variability on seasonal to

interannual time scales, included the accurate determination

of basin-scale fluctuations in surface winds, sea surface

temperature, upper ocean heat content, near-surface

currents, and sea level in the tropical Pacific. Measurement

of these oceanographic fields is required to describe fully

the variability related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

(ENSO), to understand the physical processes responsible

for that variability, and to initialize and verify short-term

climate prediction models.TheTAO array (renamed the

TAO/TRITON array on 1 January 2000) consists of

approximately 70 moorings in the tropical Pacific Ocean,

telemetering oceanographic and meteorological data to

shore in real-time via the Argos satellite system.The array

is a major component of the ENSO Observing System,

GCOS, and GOOS.

U.S.ClimateVariability and Predictability (USCLIVAR).

NSF, along with NOAA, funds the USCLIVAR/CO2

Repeat Hydrography program that since 2003 has

measured the CO2 system of the global ocean to monitor

changing patterns of CO2 in the ocean and provide the

necessary data to support continuing model development

that will lead to improved forecasting skill for oceans and

global climate. See <ushydro.ucsd.edu>.

Selected Data Management Systems

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. DOE’s

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)

provides comprehensive, long-term data management

support, analysis, and information services to DOE’s

climate change research programs, the global climate

research community, and the general public.The CDIAC

data collection is designed to answer questions pertinent

to both the present-day carbon budget and temporal

changes in carbon sources and sinks.The data sets are

76

Appendix 2
designed to provide quantitative estimates of anthropogenic

CO2 emission rates, atmospheric concentration levels,

land-atmosphere fluxes, ocean-atmosphere fluxes, and

oceanic concentrations and inventories. CDIAC provides

unrestricted, free distribution of its data products.

Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACS). Eight NASA

DAACs, representing a wide range of Earth science

disciplines, comprise the data archival and distribution

functions of the Earth Observing System Data and

Information System (EOSDIS). DAACs are responsible

for processing certain data products from instrument

data, archiving and distributing NASA’s Earth science

data, and providing a full range of user support.There are

more than 2,100 distinct data products archived at and

distributed from the DAACs.These institutions are

custodians of Earth science mission data until the data are

moved to long-term archives.They ensure that data will

be easily accessible to users. NASA and NOAA have

initiated a pilot project to develop a prototype system for

testing approaches for moving MODIS data into long-term

NOAA archives.This pilot project is part of the evolution

of the Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship

System developed by NOAA.Acting in concert with their

users, DAACs provide reliable, robust services to those

whose needs may cross traditional discipline boundaries,

while continuing to support the particular needs of their

respective disciplines. DAACs serve a broad and growing

user community.

Earth Observing System Data and Information System.

NASA’s EOSDIS provides convenient mechanisms for

locating and accessing products of interest either

electronically or via orders for data on media. EOSDIS

facilitates collaborative science by providing sets of tools

and capabilities such that investigators may provide access

to special products (or research products) from their own

computing facilities. EOSDIS has an operational EOS

Data Gateway (EDG) that provides access to the data

holdings at all the DAACs and participating data centers

from other U.S. and international agencies. Currently,

there are 14 EDGs around the world that permit users to

access Earth science data archives, browse data holdings,

select data products, and place data orders.

Global Change Master Directory.The Global Change

Master Directory (GCMD) is an extensive directory of

descriptive and spatial information about data sets

relevant to global change research.The GCMD provides a

comprehensive resource where a researcher, student, or

interested individual can access sources of Earth science

data and related tools and services.At present the GCMD

database contains over 18,200 metadata descriptions of

data sets from approximately 2,800 government agencies,

research institutions, archives, and universities worldwide;

updates are made at the rate of 900 descriptions per month.

GCMD contains descriptions of data sets covering all

disciplines that produce and use data to help understand

our changing planet. GCMD includes metadata from

disciplines including atmospheric science, oceanography,

ecology, geology, hydrology, and human dimensions of

climate change to facilitate multidisciplinary global change

research (e.g., how climate change may affect human

health). GCMD has made it easier for such data users to

locate the information desired.A portal has been created

in support of GEOSS. See <gcmd.nasa.gov>.

Earth Science Research,Education,and Applications Solutions Network. Forty Cooperative Agreement projects that

are part of NASA’s Earth Science Research, Education,

and Applications Solutions Network (REASoN ) have

completed their first year.The REASoN projects are part

of NASA’s strategy to work with its partners to improve

its existing data systems, guide the development and

management of future data systems, and focus performance

outcomes to further Earth science research objectives. In

order to achieve these goals, the REASoN projects are

organized to engage the science community and peer

review process in the development of higher level science

products; to use these products to advance Earth system

research; to develop and demonstrate new technologies

for data management and distribution; and to contribute

to interagency efforts to improve the maintenance and

accessibility of data and information systems.

77

REVISED RESEARCH PLAN FORTHE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
Appendix 3: Relationship

of CCSP Strategic Goals to

GCRA Research Elements

The CCSP strategic goals serve two functions: (1) they

articulate the most common questions regarding climate

change to foster the development of research activities to

address those questions; and (2) they serve as both a

roadmap for and a touchstone against which progress is

measured. Some common questions emerged from the

FY 2008 edition of Our Changing Planet (CCSP, 2007b):

• To what extent and how is the climate system

changing?

• What are the causes of these changes?

• What will the future climate be like and what

effects will a changed climate have on ecosystems,

society, and the economy?

• How can we best apply knowledge about ongoing

and projected changes to decisionmaking?

CCSP’s strategic goals have a direct relationship, by

design, to the research elements outlined in the Global

Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990.The GCRA

research elements are as follows:

• Global measurements, establishing and providing

stewardship for the worldwide observations

necessary to understand the physical, chemical,

and biological processes responsible for changes in

the Earth system on climate-relevant spatial and

temporal scales

• Documentation of global change, including the

development of mechanisms for recording

changes that will actually occur in the Earth system

over the coming decades

• Studies of earlier changes in the Earth system,

using evidence from the geologic and fossil record

• Predictions, using quantitative models of the Earth

system to identify and simulate global environmental

processes and trends, and the regional implications

of such processes and trends

• Focused research initiatives to understand the nature

of and interaction among physical, chemical,

biological, and social processes related to global

change.

The GCRA research elements capture the major

objectives and stages of scientific enquiry as they apply to

the study of global change: observations and monitoring;

development of time series data for historical and present

climate; understanding of past climate and variability;

understanding of the processes operating on Earth and

how they respond to climate change; and forecasting

future global change and its consequences.The CCSP

strategic goals take this further.They encapsulate the

GCRA elements and add the overarching strategic

framework that is needed to ensure integration and

coordination across the component research activities

conducted by the participating agencies, and they add the

crucial element of decision support.Table 1 depicts this

robust approach to the long- and short-term conduct of

global change research that is integrated, scientifically

sound, and relevant to society’s needs.

78

Appendix 3

Learn from

the Past Studies of earlier

changes in the Earth

system, using

evidence from the

geologic and fossil

record.

Observe Global

measurements,

establishing and

providing

stewardship for the

worldwide

observations

necessary to

understand the

physical, chemical,

and biological

processes

responsible for

changes in the Earth

system on climaterelevant spatial and

temporal scales.

Record Documentation of

global change,

including the

development of

mechanisms for

recording changes

that will actually

occur in the Earth

system over the

coming decades.

Understand Focused research

initiatives to

understand the

nature of and

interaction among

physical, chemical,

biological, and social

processes related to

global change.

Predict

Predictions, using quantitative models of the

Earth system to identify and simulate global

environmental processes and trends, and the

regional implications of such processes and

trends.

Collect Information

and Increase Scientific Knowledge CCSP Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the EarthÕs past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve

understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.

Understand

Causes CCSP Goal 2:

Improve

quantification of the

forces bringing about

changes in the

Earth's climate and

related systems.

Characterize

Uncertainties CCSP Goal 3:

Reduce uncertainty

in projections of how

the Earth's climate

and related systems

may change in the

future.

Understand

Sensitivities and

Predict Responses

CCSP Goal 4: Understand the

sensitivity and

adaptability of

different natural and

managed

ecosystems and

human systems to

climate and related

global changes.

Support

Decisionmaking

CCSP Goal 5:

Explore the uses and

identify the limits of

evolving knowledge

to manage risks and

opportunities related

to climate variability

and change.

Relationship of GCRA 1990 Reearch Elements to CCSP 2003 Strategic Goals

Scientific Process

Growth in Knowledge

GCRA CCSP

U.S. Climate Change Science Program

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http://www.climatescience.gov