# (8 3 pages)

CAEP.8.IP.014.3.3.ver.en.doc 

# COMMITTEE ON AVIATION ENVIRO NMENTAL PROTECTION (CAEP)

EIGHTH MEETING

Montréal, 1 to 12 February 2010

Agenda Item 2: Review of technical proposals relating to aircraft engine emissions

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE NOx STRINGENCY SCENARIOS

(Presented by the Rapporteur s of FESG)

SUMMARY

CAEP has tasked FESG to study the effects of a number of NOx stringency

scenarios. FESG assessed the cost impa cts of the NOx stringency scenarios,

and brought the results together with the analysis of emissions reductions

undertaken by MODTF modellers to pr esent cost-effectiveness results. This

paper presents an overview of the analysis of the cost impacts, emissions

reductions and environmen tal trade-offs of the NOx stringency scenarios

together with the resulting cost-effectiv eness findings, with cost per tonne of

NOx reduced and rankings presented fo r each stringency scenario. A joint

FESG/MODTF working paper highlighting the results of these analyses is

provided in CAEP/8-WP/15 1



# .

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 The work programme of the CAEP working groups and task forces for the CAEP/8 cycle was

established at the CAEP/7 meeting held in Montreal, Canada on February 5-16, 2007. It was subsequently

amended during the cycle to reflect the guidance provided by the CAEP Steering Group as well as the

new tasks that were assigned to the working groups.

1.2 At the first Steering Group meeting of the CAEP/8 cycle, held in Zurich, Switzerland on

November 26-30, 2007, the FESG work programme was updated and three new tasks were assigned to

1 

# Ref

. [CAEP/8-WP/15] “Environmental and Economic Assessment of the NOx Stringency Scenarios”. 

# International Civil Aviation Organization



# INFORMATION PAPER CAEP/8-IP/14

30/11/09

English only

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 2 -

the group, including the task to “ perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of potential stringency scenarios to

reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) ” 2 

# for consideration at CAEP/8.

1.3 In December 2007, FESG established a specific Task Group to bring forward this task: the NOx

Stringency Task Group (NSTG). The FESG NSTG has defined all the economic, financial and modelling

assumptions to be used in the economic analysis and has performed the economic assessment of the

proposed stringency scenarios.

1.4 The FESG NOx Cost Spreadsheet Model (NOx-CSM) has been used as the primary tool in the

economic assessment of the NOx stringency scenario s under consideration for CAEP/8. A second model,

the APMT-Economics 3 

# , has been utilized to compare results to the NOx-CSM for a selected number of

scenarios. The assessment of the economic costs of the stringency scenarios was done relative to the

ICAO CAEP/6 NOx standard 4 

# against a base case that involved no policy action and for two effective

implementation dates: 31 Decemb er 2012 and 31 December 2016. A sensitivity analysis was also

conducted by varying the discount rates.

1.5 In order to perform the economic assessment of the proposed NOx stringency scenarios the FESG

NSTG has worked in close coordination with ot her CAEP working groups. WG1 (Noise Technical),

WG3 (Emissions Technical) and MODTF (Modelling and Databases Task Force) provided inputs,

assumptions and support to FESG for the economic assessment of the proposed NOx stringency

scenarios.

1.6 This report presents the results of the cost-eff ectiveness analysis performed by the FESG NSTG

in regards the proposed NOx stringency scenarios under consideration for CAEP/8. The objectives and

scope of the analysis are discussed in Section 2. A description of the models, databases and methods used

in the analysis is provided in Section 3. A summary of modelling assumptions is presented in Section 4.

The benefit and cost results are reported respectively in Section 5 and 6 of the report. Section 7 presents a

discussion of the interdependencies. And finally, th e results of the cost-effectiveness analysis and the

ranking of the scenarios are provided in Section 8. A ll costs are presented in terms of 2009 US Dollars.

The benefit results were computed by MODTF, and th e details of their analyses are presented in CAEP/8-

IP/13 5 

# . An overview of the NOx Stringency Assessment is provided in a joint FESG/MODTF report to

this meeting (CAEP/8-WP/15) 6



# .

2. OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE OF ANALYSIS

2.1 The objective of economic analysis performed by FESG is to provide CAEP with a reasonable

assessment of the economic costs and environmenta l benefits, expressed in amount of NOx emissions

reduction from a “No ICAO action” ba seline, associated with the implementation of the NOx stringency

scenarios under consideration for CAEP/8.

2 

# Ref

. [CAEP-SG/20071-SD/5] “Summary of Discussions and Decisi ons of the Fifth Meeting of the Steering Group. Friday, 30 November 2007,

(Presented by the Chairman)”. First Steering Group meeting of the CA EP/8 cycle held in Zurich (Sw itzerland) on November 26-30, 2007.

Appendix F – Forecast and Economic Analysis – FESG. Task F.0 7, p. 22.

3 

# APMT – Aviation environmental Portfolio Ma nagement Tool. Suite of software tools de veloped by the United States Federal Aviati on

Administration and its consultants.

4 

# Ref . Convention on International Civil Aviati on. Annex 16 – Environmental Protection. Vo lume II – Aircraft Engine Emissions. ICAO

International Standards and Recommended Practices.

5 

# Ref

. [CAEP/8-IP/13] “NOx Stringency”.

6 

# Ref

. [CAEP/8-WP/15] “Environmental and Economic Assessment of the NOx Stringency Scenarios”

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 3 -

2.2 The range of potential scenarios to be consider ed in the NOx stringency assessment was agreed

upon in November 2007. It was also agreed that the r esults of the assessment would have to be reported

separately for small and large engine categories. 7,8



# 2.3 The 10 scenarios used in the asse ssment of the NOx stringency were provided by WG3 and are

defined as incremental increases in the NOx stringenc y with respect to the CAEP/6 NOx standard and

shown in Table 2.1.

Table 2.1 – CAEP/8 NOx Stringency Scenarios

NOx Stringency

Scenario Small Engines Large Engines

[26.7 kN / 89 kN Foo] 9

, 

# 10 

# OPR 11 

# >30 Slope 12



# 1 -5% / -5% -5% 2

2 -10% / -10% -10% 2.2

3 -10% / -10% -10% 2

4 -5% / -15% -15% 2.2

5 -15% / -15% -15% 2.2

6 -5% / -15% -15% 2

7 -15% / -15% -15% 2

8 -10% / -20% -20% 2.2

9 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2



# 2.4 The interdependencies 13 

# between NOx emissions, noise and other emissions (i.e. CO 2 

# emissions)

associated with the engine technology responses, with the introduction of a fuel burn penalty (range of

0% to +0.5%) and/or a noise penalty, have been ta ken into consideration in the analysis. Two scenarios

were presented for assessing the noise trade-off assoc iated with NOx stringency scenarios. One option

was to apply the noise penalty within the analysis in cluding associated costs and the second option was to

assume that the noise penalty was mitigated at additi onal cost and implications. FESG has only analyzed

the second option whereby the noise penalty was mitigated and has assessed the resulting cost

implications.

2.5 The proposed stringency scenarios have been ev aluated according to both the recurring and nonrecurring costs that would be incurred by engine manufacturers and aircraft operators, and their

effectiveness in reducing NOx emissions from aircraft engines.

2.6 The results of the analysis have been expressed in cost per tonne of NOx emissions reduction

during the Landing and Take-Off (LTO) cycle.

7 

# Ref

. [CAEP-SG/20071-SD/4 ] “Summary of Discussions and Deci sions of the Fifth Meeting of the Steering Group. Thursday, 29 November

2007, (Presented by the Chairman)”. First Steering Group meeting of the CAEP/8 cycle held in Zuri ch (Switzerland) on November 2 6-29,

2007. Paragraph 3.17. p. 7

8 

# Ref

. [CAEP-SG/20071-WP/12] “ICAO Annex 16 Volume II NOx Stringency Scenarios Analysis”. [ CAEP-SG/20071-WP/25] “CAEP/8 NOx

Stringency Assessment.”

9 

# Foo – Thrust rating. For engine emissions purposes, the maxi mum power/thrust available for ta keoff under normal operating cond itions at ISA

(International Standard Atmosphere) sea leve l static conditions without the use of wa ter injection as approved by the certifica ting authority.

Thrust is expressed in kilonewtons (kN).

10 

# Incremental stringency scenarios defined for small engines with thrust ratings (F oo) comprised between 26.7 kN and 89 kN.

11 

# OPR – Overall Engine Pressure Ratio. The engine pressure ratio is defined as the ratio of the me an total pressure at the last compressor

discharge plane of the compressor to the mean total pressure at the compressor entry pl ane, when the engine is developing its t akeoff thrust

rating (in ISA sea-level static conditions).

12 

# Slope of the line of the NOx stringency scenarios at engine pressure ratio (PR) greater than 30.

13 

# That is the trade-off associated with the stringency scenarios.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 4 -

2.7 Although all aircraft NOx emissions have been c onsidered in the analysis (i.e. emissions from

landing and take-off cycle as well as cruise emissions), the results presented in the tables and graphs of

the report pertain mainly to NOx emissions during th e landing and take-off cycle. The results on fuel burn

and reductions in NOx emissions are discussed separately.

3. MODELS, DATABASES AND METHODS

3.1 Models

Modelling Approach

3.1.1 Certain analysis considerations were updated or refined in the CAEP/8 assessment exercise as

compared to CAEP/6. An overview of the key chang es in analysis considerations between CAEP/6 and

CAEP/8 is provided in Appendix A, Table A.1.

3.1.2 Environmental models were run by MODTF to ass ess the impact of the st ringency scenarios in

reducing NOx emissions. In addition, these models c onsidered impacts on fuel burn and noise. The key

tool used for calculating the cost impacts was th e NOx-CSM developed by FESG. The APMT-Economics

was used as a supplementary tool for select stringency scenarios (7 and 10) to verify the results calculated

with the NOx-CSM. The interrelationships and data flows between these models are shown in Appendix

A, Figure A.3.

Benefits Modelling

3.1.3 The environmental modelling framework used by MODTF for the assessment of the NOx

stringency scenarios is described in CAEP/8-IP/13. For each of the 10 stringency scenarios, MODTF

conducted NOx and fuel burn modelling in the terminal area below 3000 ft (Local Air Quality emissions,

LAQ) and above 3000 ft (Greenhouse gas emissions, GHG), as well as a noise assessment. Modelling

results for NOx and fuel burn were presented separat ely for LAQ, GHG and full flight for each of the

stringency scenarios and the baseline, with scenarios ranked in order of percentage difference between

scenario and baseline. Noise results were also pr esented, including consideration of any trade-off

penalties for noise.

3.1.4 The primary data that MODTF provided to FESG was fleet operations, fuel burn and LAQ NOx

data for each of the stringency scenarios compared with the baseline for the years 2006, 2012, 2016, 2026

and 2036. A further description of the MODTF and FESG data handover is described in Appendix G.

FESG interpolated the data provided by MODTF for the intermediate years. This data was used in the

assessment of the environmental benefits, reported in Section 5. The full summary list of MODTF data

provided to FESG is shown in Table 3.1.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 5 -

Table 3.1 – MODTF Data Provided to FESG

Data Category Description

Operating aircraft and engines The number of aircraft and asso ciated engines operating in the

global fleet for the purposes of analysis

New aircraft and engines delivered The new aircraft and associated engines delivered for each

scenario analyzed

Operating aircraft and engine cycles The nu mber of aircraft and engine operations

Operating aircraft and engine block hours 14 

# The aggregate number of block hours flown by the aircraft and

associated engines in the analysis

Total fuel consumption Gate-to-gate block fuel consumption derived from GHG models

Total LTO NOx generated Derived from LAQ models



# Cost Modelling

3.1.5 For analyzing the NOx stringency scenarios FESG reviewed two models: the NOx-CSM and the

APMT-Economics 15 

# . This process included both models running a NOx stringency sample problem,

using a simplified set of common assumptions. The resulting cost impacts from the two models for the

sample problem were closely aligned. In Sept ember 2008, the Steering Group agreed that it was

appropriate to use these two models to assess the cost impacts of NOx stringency scenarios.

3.1.6 The FESG NOx-CSM was developed for assess ing the cost impacts resulting from the

introduction of NOx stringency scenarios for CAEP/6 , and has been updated for use in CAEP/8. The

main inputs of the NOx-CSM are:

Table 3.2 – Primary Inputs to the NOx-CSM

Data Category Description

Fleet forecast A unique detailed fleet forecast for each NOx stringency scenario was developed

from the CAEP/8 FESG fleet forecast populated with aircraft / engine combinations

from the WG1-WG3 Growth and Replacemen t database. The detailed fleet forecast

includes engines for the growth and repl acement segment of the forecast that are

modified with an appropriate technology response to make them compliant with the

NOx stringency scenario being analyzed. The aircraft / engine combinations are

grouped into common groups of technology response, including projections of

utilization, fuel use and emissions data.

Manufacturer and

airline costs Non-recurring and recurring manufacturer and airline cost data, including aircraft

fuel burn

Financial

assumptions All financial parameters, including fuel price and discount rates



# 3.1.7 The NOx-CSM aggregates projected costs over the forecast period at the global level, combining

non-recurring and recurring costs to manufacturers and th e recurring costs incurred by airline operators. It

computes the present value of the discounted cash flow s for each stringency scenario compared against

the no stringency base case using a range of discount ra tes. The model considers the supply side and is

14 

# Aircraft block hours are the total time from departure ramp (g ate) to arrival ramp (gate) often expressed as “gate-to-gate” ti me. Some of the

cost calculations required flight hours which were derived by FESG by subtr acting 26 minutes of total taxi time.

15 

# Ref

. [CAEP/8-IP/29] “Aviation Environmental Portfolio Manageme nt Tool for Economics (APMT-Economics)”.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 6 -

limited to calculating the cost impacts incurred by the aviation industry. It does not consider demand

responses.

3.1.8 The APMT-Economics model is designed to mode l aviation market responses to a range of

environmental policy measures. It produces both de mand and supply projections for the baseline and

policy scenarios, allowing a new equilibrium to be brought into the market for air travel after a change in

policy. Thus, unlike the NOx-CSM, it is able to cons ider the demand impacts arising from higher airline

costs passed on to passengers, though this function can be switched off. The primary role for APMTEconomics in the CAEP/8 NOx stringency analysis was to verify the NOx-CSM results, and to perform

this role the demand response function was disabled to ensure maximum possible consistency between the

models for the comparison runs.

3.1.9 Although underlying modelling differe nces were observed in the detailed results, under the same

assumptions the two models produced consistent resu lts. The APMT-Economics was also used to test

demand sensitivity to potential industry cost increases for the most stringent measure. This test showed

minimal impact, confirming that potential demand eff ects would not change the outcome produced by the

NOx-CSM for the CAEP/8 NOx stringency analysis. Th e additional cost increases in the NS10 stringency

scenario lead to a reduction in demand of 0.07%. The MS3 category technology response 0-0.5% fuel

penalty scenario results in an additional fuel use of 0.13%, which was lowered by the effect of demand

reduction to 0.09%.

3.2 Databases

3.2.1 There were a number of databases used by MODTF in support of the benefits portion of the NOx

stringency assessment. These are documented extensively in CAEP/8-IP/13.

3.2.2 One database used by FESG as an aid in deve loping some of the cost assumptions was the 2008

mid-year AVITAS 16 

# Jet Engine Value guide as a source for engine prices.

3.3 Methods

Technology Responses Assessed By WG3

3.3.1 A Modification Status (MS) methodology was developed by WG3 for assessing engine

technology responses to the CAEP/8 NOx stringency scenar ios. It includes Minor Changes (MS1), Scaled

Proven Technology (MS2) and New Technology (MS3).

3.3.2 The methodology covers the situation where an engine family fails to comply with a NOx

stringency scenario and proposes the different categori es of response that may be used to bring into

compliance any in-production engine family fa iling a new CAEP/8 NOx stringency standard. The

approach follows previous practice used fo r CAEP/6 but updates a number of assumptions.

3.3.3 WG3 determined which engines from the WG1- WG3 Growth and Replacement database would

fail each NOx stringency scenario and determined th e required technology response (e.g. MS1, MS2 or

MS3) required to make the engine compliant with the stringency scenario. A summary description of

these technology responses follows. A full descripti on of the technological response to the NOx

stringency options under consideration fo r CAEP/8 can be found in CAEP/8-IP/12 17



# .

16 

# AVITAS, Inc. operates as an aviation consulting company which pr ovides valuations and other adviso ry services to airlines, fin ancial

institutions, maintenance facilitie s, manufacturers, government ag encies, and law firms. source : www.avitas.com

17 

# Ref

. [CAEP/8-IP/12] “Analysis of the Technological Response to a Range of NOx Stringency Options”.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 7 -

MS1 – Minor Change

3.3.4 The MS1 designation covers a range of possible minor changes to existing engines not involving

substantive material change to the engine combus tor hardware or operating costs. The typical NOx

reduction would be of the order of 1-5%. Cost impact s were estimated to fall in the range of $1-15 million

per engine family.

MS2 – Scaled Proven Technology

3.3.5 This response is defined as where an engine ma nufacturer applies its best proven combustor

technology, certified in at least one other engine fami ly, into another engine fa mily that would otherwise

fail to meet the standard. The MS2 solution would re quire substantial modelling, design and testing work.

The improvements in emissions will depend on the engine family to which such a change is applied, but

manufacturers estimate that it will bring at least a 6% improvement in NOx. The cost of these

programmes is estimated to be betw een $50-100 million per engine family.

MS3 – New Technology Combustors From Research Programmes

3.3.6 When a manufacturer has no proven technology that can be scaled to provide a solution, some

technology acquisition will be required. These cha nges which would go beyond the manufacturer’s

available technology would involve minimum costs comp arable to the top of the MS2 range. The costs

and timescale of technology acquis ition programmes are difficult to assess as no two programmes face the

same goals or obstacles. This makes it difficult to de rive a single cost for one manufacturer to catch up

with the industry leaders. At the lower end of the range, a MS3 development programme would be similar

to a MS2 solution with the addition of some app lied research for technology acquisition. The upper limit

on the cost of MS3 is based on the maximum amount a manufacturer would be willing to invest, where

the alternative is to drop production of an engine ty pe. The total costs for the MS3 category are estimated

to be between $100-500 million per engine family, with a fuel burn penalty of 0-0.5%. The emissions

improvement would be greater than MS2, with at least a 10% NOx improvement.

Summary – Technology Responses

3.3.7 Whereas Figure 3.3 shows the number of engine families affected by the NOx stringency

scenarios, Figures 3.4 and 3.5 show the impact in terms of the number of installed engines affected in the

growth and replacement portion of the FESG fleet for ecast. The left-hand side gr aph in Figure 3.4 shows

the number of installed engines delivered from 2012 to 2036 for the small engine group that would

require either a MS1 or MS2 technology response to comply with the NOx stringency scenarios for a

2012 implementation date. The ri ght-hand side of Figure 3.4 shows a similar graph for a 2016

implementation date. Figure 3.5 shows a similar pair of graphs for the large engine group. Figures 3.6 and

3.7 show the percentage of engines delivered throughout the forecast period that would be affected by the

NOx stringency scenarios. Figure 3.6 shows that less than 10 percent of the small engines delivered

throughout the forecast period would be affected by stringency scenarios 1-7. For stringency scenarios 8-

10, 18 to 25 percent of the small engines delivered w ould be affected. From Figure 3.7, it can be observed

that 30 to 37 percent of the large engines delivered throughout the forecast period would be affected by

stringency scenarios 1-3, and approximately 50 percent of the engines delivered would be affected with

stringency scenarios 4-7. For stringency scenarios 8- 10, approximately 70 percent of the engines

delivered would be affected.

3.3.8 Table 3.8 provides the range of estimates for non -recurring costs per engine family for each MS

technology response that would be incurred by the engine manufacturers.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 8 -

Figure 3.3 – Number of Engine Families Requiring a MS Technology Response

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionNumber of Engine Families 

# MS3

MS2

MS1 

# Large Engines

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionNumber of Engine Families 

# MS2

MS1 

# Small Engines

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionNumber of Engine Families 

# MS3

MS2

MS1 

# Large Engines

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionNumber of Engine Families 

# MS2

MS1 

# Small Engines



# Figure 3.4 – Count of Small Engines Affected by NOx Stringency Scenarios

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionThousands of Engines 

# MS2

MS1 

# 2016 Implementation

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionThousands of Engines 

# MS2

MS1 

# 2012 Implementation

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionThousands of Engines 

# MS2

MS1 

# 2016 Implementation

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionThousands of Engines 

# MS2

MS1 

# 2012 Implementation



# Figure 3.5 – Count of Large Engines Affected by NOx Stringency Scenarios

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionThousands of Engines 

# MS3

MS2

MS1 

# 2016 Implementation

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionThousands of Engines 

# MS3

MS2

MS1 

# 2012 Implementation

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionThousands of Engines 

# MS3

MS2

MS1 

# 2016 Implementation

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionThousands of Engines 

# MS3

MS2

MS1 

# 2012 Implementation

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 9 -

Figure 3.6 – Percentage of Small Engines Affected by NOx Stringency Scenarios

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionPercent of Engine Deliveries 

# MS2

MS1 

# 2016 Implementation

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionPercent of Engine Deliveries 

# MS2

MS1 

# 2012 Implementation

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionPercent of Engine Deliveries 

# MS2

MS1 

# 2016 Implementation

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionPercent of Engine Deliveries 

# MS2

MS1 

# 2012 Implementation



# Figure 3.7 – Percentage of La rge Engines Affected by NOx Stringency Scenarios

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionPercent of Engine Deliveries 

# MS3

MS2

MS1 

# 2016 Implementation

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionPercent of Engine Deliveries 

# MS3

MS2

MS1 

# 2012 Implementation

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionPercent of Engine Deliveries 

# MS3

MS2

MS1 

# 2016 Implementation

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



# NOx Stringency OptionPercent of Engine Deliveries 

# MS3

MS2

MS1 

# 2012 Implementation



# Table 3.8 – Non-Recurri ng Cost Estimates Per Engine Family

MS

Category Low Cost Estimate

($M) High Cost Estimate

($M)

1 1 15

2 50 100

3 100 500

3+Incremental Noise 110 600



# Cost-Effectiveness Approach

3.3.9 A cost-effectiveness approach has been adopted where cost imp acts incurred by manufacturers

and operators are compared with the change in the NOx emissions. Benefits are measured by the change

in global NOx over the LTO cycle (below 3000 ft). The approach includes some analysis of

interdependencies associated with fuel penalties a nd noise modification costs associated with some

improvements in NOx technology required to comply with stringency scenarios. The cost-effectiveness

approach enables stringency scenarios to be rank ed but differs from cost-benefit analysis, where

environmental, health and other impacts are measured and monetized.

3.3.10 There are a number of considerations to conduc ting cost-effectiveness analysis. Firstly, benefits

are calculated on the basis of inventories (e.g. NO x burden) which are a proxy for environmental and

health impacts. Also cost-effectiven ess analysis allows scenarios to be ranked based on total industry cost

per unit of NOx reduction. Finally, the assessment of interdependencies between different environmental

impacts is evaluated.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 10 -

4. ASSUMPTIONS

4.1 A detailed record of assumptions used for the CA EP/8 NOx stringency cost-effectiveness analysis

is included in Appendix A, Table A.2. This incl udes comments on the application of each assumption.

Highlights are provided in Table 4.1 below.

Table 4.1 – Highlights of NOx Stringency Economic Assessment Assumptions

Category Description

1. FESG traffic and fleet

forecast The fleet forecast assumes that all future demand is fully met, though it does

reflect the impact of existing ai rport and airspace constraints.

2. Underlying trend in

NOx technology The simplifying assumption of no change in NOx technology over time avoids

the difficulty of making projections of future trends in technology. Although this

assumption may affect the absolute value of costs and size of emissions

reductions, it is unlikely to affect the ranking of scenarios.

3. Future tightening of

NOx stringency This simplifying assumption avoids the di fficulty of forecasting possible future

CAEP standards. It has the effect of isolating the costs and benefits to the

specific stringency scenar ios under consideration.

4. Product compliance The market-driven production cut-off assu mption means that all newly delivered

engines are brought into compliance by the time the stringency standard is

implemented.

5. Time-in-mode and

power settings The use of ICAO time-in-modes and power setting will over-estimate NOx

savings, but more modelling development work is necessary before actual

operating practices can be modelled.

6. Market shares The assumption of equal market shares between manufacturers within each seat

size category keeps the analysis manageable and avoids the difficulty of making

possibly controversial assumptions about market shares in future years.

7. Technology response

categories Section 3.3 contains a description of the various engine technology responses.

8. NOx stringency

scenarios There were 10 stringency scenarios evaluated, combining stringencies for small

and large engines, ranging from 5% to 20% below the ICAO CAEP/6 NOx

standard. See Table 2.1 for details.

9. Base year A base year of 2006 was used.

10. Time horizon The FESG CAEP/8 forecast time horizon was used, with a 10-year extension to

cover an overall 30-year time horizon.

11. NOx stringency

implementation years Alternative implementation dates of 31 December 2012 and 31 December 2016

were used.

12. Fuel price An average fuel price of $100/barrel (bbl) was used, which is equivalent to $3.00

per U.S. gallon, with $50/bbl and $150/bbl used as sensitivity tests.

13. Discount rates Since costs and benefits are incurred at different times over the forecast period,

discounting is used to account for time preference, enabling them to be expressed

as net present values. A range of discount rates was used to reflect time

preference rates used by governments for environmental policy analysis and the

cost of capital to the aviation industry.

14. Non-recurring costs The cost of NOx technology responses is described in Section 3.3.

15. Noise trade-off costs Incremental non-recurring costs up to $100 million for MS3 technology

responses were used to reflect the costs of noise modifications where trade-offs

arose as a result of NOx technology responses.

16. Incremental

manufacturing costs These costs result from increased engine complexity and more expensive

materials.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 11 -

Table 4.1 – Highlights of NOx Stringency Economic Assessment Assumptions (continued)

Category Description

17. Incremental fuel burn Increased fuel consumption resulting from engine modifications are only

assumed to arise with MS3 responses where a range of 0-0.5% was adopted.

18. Incremental engine

maintenance These values were based on evid ence provided by manufacturers.

19. Lost revenue from

incremental fuel burn A new approach was adopted to replace the approach used in CAEP/6 where the

cost of maintaining aircraft mission and payload was estimated. Instead estimates

of lost revenue that would be incurred on long-range Maximum Take-off Weight

(MTOW) limited missions were made.

20. Spare engine costs These additional costs arise when a regulatory standard results in a loss of engine

commonality, resulting in an increase in the number of spare engines required to

maintain the fleet. This assumption was applied to 50% of the engines requiring

MS3 technology changes.

21. Engine price for

spares The average of $8.6 million per engine was based on the mid-2008 AVITAS

Engine Value Guide. For the cost imp act analysis of each NOx stringency

scenario, a more detailed assessment method was used to estimate a weighted

average engine price to be used for spare engines, considering only those engines

that would require a MS3 technology response.

22. Spare engine function The spares curve used in CAEP/6 showing the distribution of spare engines

required by engine fleet size was used.

23. Loss of asset value This is based on the premise that the announcement of a new NOx standard will

reduce the market value of existing fleet s that require modifications to bring

them into compliance. To reflect concerns over whether this represents a genuine

economic cost, as opposed to a distributional effect, the model was run with and

without loss of asset value.



# 5. BENEFITS RESULTS

5.1 In this analysis, benefits are measured by the change in global NOx over the LTO cycle (below

3000 ft). As reported in CAEP/8-IP/13, Figure 5.1 provi des a summary of total fo recasted NOx benefits

for each of the 10 NOx stringency scenarios, estimated at three points in time: 2016, 2026 and 2036. The

results are expressed in tonnes of NOx reduced compared to the level of NOx in the base year (2006), at

defined points in the future (2016, 2026, 2036).

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 12 -

Figure 5.1 – MODTF-Generated NOx Benefits



# 5.2 Using this MODTF-generated NOx reduction benefit data, FESG calculated a cumulative,

integrated sum of total NOx reductions for the two effectivity periods of 2012–2036 and 2016–2036.

These cumulated benefits are shown in Figures 5.2 and 5.3 respectively. For a summary definition of the

10 NOx stringencies, refer to Table 2.1.

Figure 5.2 – Cumulative NOx Reduction in Tonnes, 2012-2036



# 31 Dec 2012 Implementation

- 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10Cumulative Reduction LTO NOx (tonnes) 

# Small Engines

Large Engines

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 13 -

Figure 5.3 – Cumulative NOx Reduction in Tonnes, 2016-2036



# 31 Dec 2016 Implementation

- 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10Cumulative Reduction LTO NOx (tonnes) 

# Small Engines

Large Engines

6. COST RESULTS

6.1 Overview

6.1.1 Cost impact results have been generated for over 80 cases, reflecting two implementation dates

and a range of values for some key assumptions. The results for each NOx stringency scenario cover the

low to high estimates for the manufacturers’ non-recurri ng costs. For the stringency scenarios that require

MS3 technology responses, four additional cases were r un for each stringency capturing the cost impact

for a 0% to 0.5% increase in fuel burn and an incremental non-recurring cost of $10 million and $100

million to reflect the costs of modifications to m itigate a potential noise trade-off as a result of the NOx

technology response.

6.1.2 Figures 6.1 and 6.2 illustrate the lower to upper range of the cost estimates incurred by the

aviation industry over the forecast time horizon for th e small and large engine groups, respectively. The

top 2 graphs in Figure 6.1 present the cost build-up for the lower bound of the cost uncertainty band for

the large engine group. The bottom 2 graphs in Figu re 6.1 present the cost bu ild-up for the uncertainty

band, representing the difference between the cost estimates for the lower and upper bounds. The top of

each stacked bar in the bottom 2 graphs present th e upper bound of the cost estimates for the large

engines. Whereas in Figure 6.2, the cost uncertainty bands for the small engines, as shown by the crosshatched bar segments, are the result of the range of estimates for the manufacturers’ non-recurring costs.

The lower bound of the cost build-up for the small engi nes is marked by the bottom of the cross-hatched

bars and the upper bound of the costs is repr esented by the top of the cross-hatched bars.

6.1.3 Each stringency level for small or large engine gr oups as labelled on the X-axis labels in Figures

6.1 and 6.2 respectively, belongs to the combined sm all and large engine stringency scenario (1 through

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 14 -

10), as identified by the circled number above the bars in the figures. The graphs also present the

contribution by each cost component.

6.1.4 The total cost impact for the large engine gr oup at the higher NOx stringencies becomes very

large, driven by the large number of engine fam ilies requiring a MS3 technology response. The costs for

the small engine group are driven mainly by the estimates for non-recurring costs for the technology

response.

6.1.5 The APMT-Economics model was used to veri fy the NOx-CSM results and although some

underlying modelling differences were observed in th e detailed results, under the same assumptions the

two models produced consistent results as shown in Appendix B, Figure B.1.

Figure 6.1 – Cost Breakdown, Large Engines

NR – manufacturers’ non-recurring costs

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 15 -

Figure 6.2 – Cost Breakdown, Small Engines

NR – manufacturers’ non-recurring costs



# 6.2 Cost Build-Up

6.2.1 If one looks in somewhat more detail to the co st build-up for the various stringencies, some

additional observations can be made as noted below:

a) The more stringent the scenarios, the larger the spread of uncertainty in the costs.

b) When considering the maximum cost assumpti ons for the first five stringency scenarios

(NS01 through NS05), more than a third of those co sts consists of the loss of fleet value. It is

debatable whether this constitutes a genuine res ource cost, and in view of this, results are

presented with or without this cost item.

c) For the large engines, the -15% stringency at a slope of 2.0 (scenarios 6 and 7) is roughly a

factor of 3 to 4.5 times higher costs than the -15% stringency at a slope of 2.2 (scenarios 4

and 5). The -20% stringency (scenarios 8, 9 and 10) has an even greater cost, ranging from a

factor of roughly 4.5 to over 10 times that of the -15% stringency with a slope of 2.2

(scenarios 4 and 5).

d) Considering again the maximum costs for the -2 0% stringency scenario (scenarios 8, 9 and

10), roughly 40% of these costs are driven by the assumption about the fuel penalty. The loss

of fleet value has diminished to roughly 10%, wh ile the costs for spares are about 20% of the

maximum cost components.

e) The difference between the maximum costs for -1 5% scenario with the slope of 2.2 (NS05)

and the -15% scenario with the slope of 2.0 (N S06) is largely determined by the costs of

spare engines (~30%) and the costs driven by the fuel penalty assumption (~25%).

6.2.2 The detailed tables of cost impact results have been included in Appendix D. The summary tables

in that appendix present the tota l costs over the 2009-2036 forecast time horizon breaking out the costs

for the small and large engine groups separately. Th e costs are broken out by cost element. The cost

summaries in Section D-1 are the cumulative costs over the forecast period and Sections D-2 through D-4

provide the present value of the costs over the fo recast period for discount rates of 3%, 7% and 9%.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 16 -

6.2.3 While efforts were made to comprehensively qua ntify all cost impacts, some costs were not

included. For example, increased industry operational costs in scenarios involving higher fuel burn were

partially itemized to include fuel costs and costs as sociated with loss in payload for payload limited

flights. However, carbon costs for additional CO 2 

# emissions such as those resulting from the inclusion of

airlines in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme were not itemized and consequently were not included in

the cost build-up.

6.3 Fuel Price Sensitivity

6.3.1 The costs presented in Figure 6.1 include a range in fuel costs resulting from a fuel burn penalty

associated with engines needing a MS3 technology r esponse, ranging from 0 to 0.5 percent. A sensitivity

test was performed to test the magnitude of variation in the range of costs resulting from a change in fuel

price. This sensitivity test was only performed for th e large engine group as only engines in this group

required MS3 technology responses.

6.3.2 The results of a change in fuel price from $3 pe r gallon to $1.50 and $4.50 per gallon can be seen

in Figure 6.3. Since the lower bound of the costs assumes a 0% fuel burn penalty for the MS3 technology

response, there would be no change in the costs for th e lower bound. A change in fuel price results in a

change in the magnitude of the upper bound of the co sts, (i.e. for stringency scenarios with engines

requiring MS3 technology response with a 0.5% fuel burn penalty), as seen from the figure. However, the

relative ranking of the cost-effectiveness fo r the stringency scenarios does not change.

Figure 6.3 – Cost-Effectiveness Resu lts Sensitivity to Fuel Price

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000



# 1 2 3 4 - 5 6 - 7 6 - 7 6 - 7 8 - 10 8 - 10 8 - 10



# NOx Stringency OptionCost per tonne NOx Reduction



# Options 1-5 have no

technology responses

with a fuel penalty Fuel Price ($/U.S. Gallon)

$3.00 $1.50 $4.50 Fuel Price ($/U.S. Gallon)

$3.00 $1.50 $4.50 

# Large Engines

3% Discount Rate

2016 Implementation



# 7. INTERDEPENDENCIES

7.1 Introduction

7.1.1 In addition to modelling NOx emissions, the envi ronmental trade-offs associated with the

proposed stringencies were also modelled. These incl uded fuel burn trade-offs (taking into account a

possible fuel burn penalty, as per recommendations fro m WG3), as well as the associated noise trade-offs

(taking into account a possible noise penalty, as per recommendations from WG1) as specified below:

a) An increase in fuel use of (0.0 to 0.5%) when a MS3 type of improvement of the engines is

necessary to make that engine compliant with the stringency level concerned.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 17 -

b) A noise penalty of 0.5 dB 18 

# per certification point under the same circumstances.

7.1.2 Given these assumptions none of the stringency scenarios NS01 through NS05 have any trade-off

consequences, as all engines can be made compliant without the need of the MS3 technology levels, so

there is no fuel or noise penalty. In the analysis it is also assumed that the noise penalty of 0.5 dB can be

avoided by the implementation of additional technology. Given the un certainty here a range of three

additional cost figures are given (0, 10 and 100 million dolla rs) for each engine type that has to be made

compliant with the MS3 technology level 19



# .

7.2 Fuel Penalty

7.2.1 For NOx stringency scenarios 6-10, the upper bound assumption considered a fuel penalty of

0.5%. The economic consequences have been pr esented before and the additional amount of CO 2 

# emitted

can be derived from the total amount of additional fuel used. These have been estimated using the

greenhouse gas models (AEDT/SAGE, AERO2K, AEM and FAST) 20 

# . The MODTF consensus results

were used.

7.2.2 Table 7.1 summarizes the additional CO 2 

# emissions associated with the fuel penalty for the

relevant NOx stringency scenarios for the three point s in time where data was generated by MODTF, and

for the two implementation effectivity start years.

Table 7.1 – Fuel Penalty Impact on CO 2 

# Emissions

Effectivity

Forecast Year Additional CO 2 

# Emissions (M Tonnes/year)

NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10

2012

2016 0.088 0.088 0.410 0.410 0.410

2026 0.385 0.385 1.784 1.784 1.784

2036 0.789 0.789 3.537 3.537 3.537

2016

2016 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

2026 0.299 0.299 1.379 1.379 1.379

2036 0.705 0.705 3.137 3.137 3.137



# 7.2.3 Figures 7.2 and 7.3 provide additional informa tion on total emissions reductions. Note from

Figure 7.2 below that the total reduction in climb/cruise NOx is several times higher (factor of

approximately 4-8) than the reduction achieved during the LTO cycles.

7.2.4 Figure 7.3 conveys the reductions in LTO and clim b/cruise NOx in percentage terms, along with

the percentage increase in CO 2 

# emissions due to the fuel burn penalty from MS3 technology responses in

NOx stringency scenarios 6-10.

18 

# dB – decibel.

19 

# Note : the upper bound in the cost range for affected stringency scenarios includes the 100 million.

20 

# AEDT – Aviation environmental Design Tool, SAGE – System fo r Assessing Aviation’s Global Emissi ons, AERO2K – Global inventory of

fuel usage and emissions, AEM – Advanced Emission Model, FAST – Global aviation emis sions model. For additional information on these

models, please refer to [CAEP/8-WP/06] “Models and Data bases Evaluation”.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 18 -

Figure 7.2 – Total Reductions in LTO and Climb/Cruise NOx

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency OptionMega Tonnes of NOx Reduced 

# NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx 

# 2016 Implementation

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency OptionMega Tonnes of NOx Reduced 

# NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx 

# 2012 Implementation

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency OptionMega Tonnes of NOx Reduced 

# NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx 

# 2016 Implementation

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency OptionMega Tonnes of NOx Reduced 

# NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx 

# 2012 Implementation



# Figure 7.3 – Total Percentage Reductions in LTO and Climb/Cruise NOx, CO 2

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency OptionPercentage Reduction in Emissions



# NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx

CO2 

# 2016 Implementation

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency OptionPercentage Reduction in Emissions



# NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx

CO2 

# 2012 Implementation

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency OptionPercentage Reduction in Emissions



# NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx

CO2 

# 2016 Implementation

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

NOx Stringency OptionPercentage Reduction in Emissions



# NOx Above 3000 ft

LTO NOx

CO2 

# 2012 Implementation



# 7.3 Noise Penalty

7.3.1 If the incremental investments by the engine manuf acturers to mitigate the noise trade-off are not

made, the noise contours will increase due to the 0. 5 dB assumption for the MS3 technology change. As

the traffic will increase due to the fo recasted growth and aircraft will be retired, a different base case is

estimated for the years analysed (2016, 2026 and 20 36). The additional noise impact caused by the 0.5 dB

penalty (an increase in area enclosed by the 55, 60 and 65 dB noise contours) is compared with this base

data.

7.3.2 In Table 7.4 the results are presented in percentage of change. There is for each case year only

one percentage given as the relative change did not di ffer much for the different contours (55, 60 and 65

dB) and did not vary much for the different models used. It should however be noted that the absolute

differences between the models used were substantially larger (one or two orders of magnitude) than the

increases caused by the MS3 noise penalty.

Table 7.4 – Noise Penalty Impact On Noise Contours

Forecast

Year Relative change

in contour area 21 

# Scenario Relative change

in contour area Scenario Relative change

in contour area

2016 -0.04% NS06-NS07 -0.02% NS08-NS10 +0.01%

2026 -0.10% NS06-NS07 -0.11% NS08-NS10 +0.00%

2036 -0.12% NS06-NS07 -0.06% NS08-NS10 +0.12%

21 

# In the base case, due to t echnological fleet improvements.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 19 -

7.3.3 From the table it can be concluded that the effect of the noise assumption for the MS3 technology

has only a small effect on the noise contours. In th e base case the change in the fleet mix with the

technology improvements create even with a substantial traffic increase a small d ecrease in the area of

contours. For the stringency scenarios NS06 and NS07 this positive effect is slightly diminished due to

the 0.5 dB noise penalty. Note the anomaly for the year 2026. This is caused by the fact that the

percentages presented here do not have the same basi s and the results are averaged over the different

models used. The effect for the stringency scenarios NS08 through NS10 is somewhat larger. In 2026 the

positive effect of the change in fleet mix and the base case technology improvements is here netted out by

the MS3 noise penalty. This has led the experts to conclude 22 

# that there is no noise trade-off associated

with any of the stringency scenarios considered here. This conclusion has been verified at the global,

regional and airport levels.

8. COST-EFFECTIVENESS RESULTS AND RANKINGS

8.1 Given the fact that the stringency scenarios for th e small engines work out quite differently from

those for the large engines it seems appropriate to di scuss their results separatel y. Large engines will be

addressed first as they account for approximately 99% of the benefits. Complete results for small, large

and combined engine analyses are contained in Appendices C and F.

8.2 Large Engines

8.2.1 The example below in Figure 8.1 includes large engine results for both 2012 and 2016

implementation dates. Gold columns represent cost uncertainty bands for the 10 stringencies based on a

2016 implementation date; whereas, the red column s represent the uncertainty bands based on a 2012

implementation date. The “fan lines” indicate lines of c onstant cost per tonne of NOx reduction. From

analysis of Figure 8.1, several conclusions emerge:

a) The early implementation date of 2012 gives overall lower values for the costs per tonne of

NOx reduced, enabled by an extra four years of NOx reduction compared to 2016

implementation, whereas the costs are similar for both implementation dates.

b) There is not much difference between the firs t five stringency scenarios – all have overall

relative low costs per tonne of NOx reduced.

c) For the scenarios with the slope of 2 (NS6, NS7) the costs increase by a factor of 3 to 4 in

comparison to scenarios 1-5, while the 20% stri ngency scenarios with the slope of 2.2 (NS8,

NS9, NS10) add another cost factor of 2 relative to scenarios 6-7.

22 

# Please refer to [CAEP/8-IP/13] , p.277 for more details.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 20 -

Figure 8.1 – NOx Cost-Effectiveness, Large Engines

$- $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 $ 2 0

,

0 0 0 / t o n n e



# $ 1 5

,

0 0 0 / t o n n e



# $ 1 0

,

0 0 0 / t o n n e



# $5,

000/ t o n n e

co

st ef f ec

t i v

e n e ss $ 2 5

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 0

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 5

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 4 0

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e



# *Assumes loss in resale value 

# LTO NOx Reduction

(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)Industry Cost*($ Million, 2009 – 2036) 

# $ 4 5

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 0

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 5

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 6 0

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e 

# Large Engines

• 3% discount rate

• Low/high cost range 

# Large Engines

• 3% discount rate

• Low/high cost range

NS

6-7 NS

8-10

NS

1-5 

# 2016 2012

$- $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 $ 2 0

,

0 0 0 / t o n n e



# $ 1 5

,

0 0 0 / t o n n e



# $ 1 0

,

0 0 0 / t o n n e



# $5,

000/ t o n n e

co

st ef f ec

t i v

e n e ss $ 2 5

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 0

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 5

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 4 0

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e



# *Assumes loss in resale value 

# LTO NOx Reduction

(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)Industry Cost*($ Million, 2009 – 2036) 

# $ 4 5

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 0

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 5

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 6 0

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e 

# Large Engines

• 3% discount rate

• Low/high cost range 

# Large Engines

• 3% discount rate

• Low/high cost range

NS

6-7 NS

8-10

NS

1-5 

# 2016 2012



# 8.2.2 The first conclusion implies that an early implementation year would be more cost effective.

However in the approach used it is assumed that the non-recurring co sts for the technical adjustments

needed start already four years in advance of impl ementation (from 2009). This may mean that in practice

a somewhat later date than 2012 is more obvious, particularly for those scenarios involving MS3

modifications. The CAEP/6 decision made in 2004 w ith an implementation date of 2008 would be

consistent with a CAEP/8 implemen tation date of 2014. Table 8.2 summa rizes the large engine rankings,

with a ranking of 1 representing the lowest cost per tonne NOx reduction.

Table 8.2 – Cost-Effectivene ss Ranking, Large Engines

Ranking Stringency Reference NOx Reduction % / Slope of Dp/Foo

1 NS01, NS02, NS03, NS04, NS05 -5% / 2.0, -10% / 2.2, -10% / 2.0, -15% / 2.2

2 NS06, NS07 -15% / 2.0

3 NS08, NS09, NS10 -20% / 2.2



# 8.3 Small Engines

8.3.1 When comparing the cost-effectiveness (cost per tonne of NOx reduced) of the small engines the

results are clearly different – see Figure 8.3. For th e large engines reasonably the same results can be

observed for the first five stringency scenarios and th en an increase in two steps. For the small engines

this is much less clear. Here the cost per tonne re duced remains more or less the same across the board,

however still with a clear rank order. Note that the rankings as shown in Table 8.4 are not influenced by

the discount rate used, or by the date that the stringency becomes effective.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 21 -

Figure 8.3 – NOx Cost-Effectiveness, Small Engines

$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 $ 4 0

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e



# $ 3 0

,

0 0 0 / t o n n e



# $ 2 0

,

0 0 0 / t o n n e



# $ 10

,

0 0 0 / t on n e

c o s t ef

f e c t i v

en e ss $ 5 0

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 6 0

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 7 0

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 8 0

, 0 0 0 / t o n n e



# *Assumes loss in resale value 

# LTO NOx Reduction

(Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)Industry Cost*($ Million, 2009 – 2036) 

# Small Engines

• 3% discount rate

• 2016 stringency effectivity

• Low/high cost range 

# Small Engines

• 3% discount rate

• 2016 stringency effectivity

• Low/high cost range

NS

2,3 NS

9

NS

1,4,6 NS

8 NS

10

NS

5,7



# Table 8.4 – Cost Effectiveness Ranking, Small Engines

Ranking Stringency Reference NOx Reduction %

1 NS01, NS04, NS06 -5% / -5%, -5% / -15%

2 NS08 -10% / -20%

3 NS02, NS03 -10% / -10%

4 NS10 -20% / -20%

5 NS09 -15% / -20%

6 NS05, NS07 -15% / -15%



# 8.3.2 It should be noted that the cost per tonne of NOx reduced for the small engines is substantially

higher (with the exception of NS01, NS04, NS06) than tho se for the large engines – by a factor of 2 to 4.

The amount of NOx reduced is an order of magnitude lower (in the order of a few percent of the reduction

of the large engines). However the reduction achieved compared to the total amount emitted by the small

engines is in the same order of magnitude as that of the large engines. The fact that these small engines

have such poor cost-effectiveness values has to do with their low utilisation rates, particularly for the

business jets. It should also be noted that there is mu ch more uncertainty related to the basic data used

(flight records) and the FESG CAEP/8 forecast for these aircraft. The absolu te total cost for the

adjustment of the small engines is also substantia lly lower than for the larg e engines (8% under NS05,

which has the largest fraction and 1.5% in NS 10, which is the most expensive scenario).

8.4 Observations

8.4.1 The discount rate used does not affect the ranki ng of the NOx stringencies. Higher discount rates

give higher costs per tonne, which can be explained by the fact that the benefits that accrue further in the

future become a less dominating factor, while a subs tantial proportion of the costs are incurred up-front.

# CAEP/8-IP/14 - 22 -

8.4.2 When comparing the results of the analysis with the costs per tonne of NOx reduced that have to

be made in other sectors (in Europe, € 3,000 – 5,000 per tonne NOx reduced 23 

# ), the results for the first

five scenarios are of the same order of magnitude.

8.4.3 The benefits calculated are the NOx reduction up to 3000 ft. If one takes also into account the

NOx reductions achieved by the NOx stringency scenario s during the climb/cruise phase of the flight the

total reductions achieved roughly increase 7 to 8 times a nd by that the costs per tonne of NOx diminish

considerably.

8.5 Avoiding Discontinuities

8.5.1 In the establishment of a CAEP NOx stringency st andard, it is important that the level of

reduction be consistent across the entire spectrum of engine families and rated thrusts. Selection of a

consistent reduction level will eliminate any risk of a discontinuity in Dp/Foo in the regime between

small and large engine families.

23 

# Ref

. (1) RIVM; Synergie Klimaat en NOx-beleid: Een kosten evaluatie tot 2010; in Dutch (Synergy Climate and NOx-policy: A cost

evaluation till 2010); Smeets W.L.M, Hoen A, Wijngaart R.A. van den; RIVM report 500037006; 2005; Bilth oven, The Netherlands. ( 2) CE

Delft. Advies prijsplafond NOx-emissiehandel; in Dutch (Advi ce on the price ceiling for NOx-emission trade); Delft May 2006.

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix A

(86 pages)

CAEP.8.IP.014.3.3.ver.en.doc 

# APPENDIX A

TABLES AND GRAPHS

Table A.1 – Key Changes In Analysis Considerations Between CAEP/6 and CAEP/8 Economic Analyses

Consideration

Parameter CAEP/6

Ref : [CAEP/6-IP/13] 24 

# CAEP/8

Benefit Models EDMS

GEM MODTF

NOx Cost Model FESG NOx Cost Spreadsheet Model

(NO

X 

# -CSM) NOx-CSM

Modified to handle small and large

engine breakout

+

Supplemented by APMT-Economics

Forecast Time Horizon FESG Fleet Forecast

2000-2020 FESG Fleet Forecast

2006-2036

Technology Response TL = Technology Level

TL1, TL2, TL3, TL4, TL5, TL5a, TL5b MS = Modification Status

MS1, MS2, MS3

Operational

Fuel Burn Penalty Fuel Cost @ price = $0.95/gallon

TL5b penalty = 2% Fuel Cost @ price = $3.00/gallon

[sensitivities at $1.50 and $4.50]

MS3 penalty = 0 to 0.5%

Preserve Airplane

Payload / Range

Capability Yes - Operator cost to purchase higher

certified MTOW to a llow for increased

fuel load to preserve mission capability No - Operator lost payload revenue

@ MTOW-limited ops

Noise Mitigation Cost N/A Manufacturer non-recurring cost to

mitigate noise impact from MS3

modification

NOx Stringency

Scenarios -5%,-10%,-15%,-20%,-25%-30%

@ OPR=30 10 scenarios as defined in

Table 2.1

EDMS – Emissions and Dispersion Modelling System

GEM – Boeing Global Emissions Model

MTOW – Maximum Take-Off Weight

OPR – Operating Pressure Ratio

24 

# Ref

. [CAEP/6-IP/13] “Economic Analysis of NO X 

# Emissions Stringency Options”. Information paper submitted by the FESG at the CAEP/7

Meeting held in Montreal (Canada) on February 2-12, 2004.

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix A 

# A-2

Table A.2 - Assumptions for CAEP/8 NOx Stringency Economic Analysis

Modelling Item Assumptions Comments

FESG Traffic and Fleet

forecasts Central forecasts on the basis of

unconstrained demand Forecasts assume that airpor t and airspace capacity is

available to meet projected demand growth.

Underlying trend in

NOx technology No change over time Simplifying assumption in view of difficulty in

making projections of trend in NOx emissions and

not essential for assessment of NOx stringency –

frozen technology assumption will not affect ranking

of scenarios

Future tightening of

NOx stringency No further stringency beyond

scenarios under consideration Isolate assessment of costs and NOx savings to

stringency scenarios being analysed

Product compliance Market driven production cut-off

that takes effect on implementation

date (2013 or 2017) Consistent with evidence following past stringency

standards, but sensitivity tests to be applied to reflect

alternative outcomes, in pa rticular for 2013 changes

requiring MS3

Time-in-mode and

thrust settings ICAO certification factors used Likely to over-estimate NOx savings from

stringency but more work necessary before

performance based settings can be used

Market shares Equal market split between

manufacturers within each seat

category Simplifying assumption that avoids difficult

assessment of market shar e projections for future

years

Technology Response

Categories MS1, MS2, MS3 ICCAIA cross-reference to CAEP/6 NO

x 

# stringency

analysis TL concept: MS1=TL1, MS2=TL2,

MS3=TL5A

NOx Stringency

Scenarios 5% to 20% from CAEP/6 Increments of 5%, when considering stringency

proposals for small and large engines, the resulting

number of stringency scenarios to be evaluated is 10.

See Table 2.1 for details.

Base Year 2006 The Campbell-Hill Aviation Group’s commercial

airline fleet database updated to represent the 2006

year-end fleet forms the basis for the base year.

Time Horizon 2006-2036 FESG CAEP/8 20-year fleet forecast with a 10-year

extension

NOx Stringency

Implementation Years 2012, 2016 NOx stringency implementation takes effect from 31

December 2012 or 31 December 2016

Fuel Price $1.50 - $4.50 per gallon

(average = $3.00/gallon) Recommendation for CAEP/8 is to use crude oil

prices of $50-$150/bbl, with $100/bbl the midpoint.

Multiply crude oil price by 1.25 to arrive at fuel

price per barrel. (42 barrels per gallon) (see comment

above about units)

Financial discount rates 0%, 3%, 7%, 9% Use same discount rates as CAEP/6

Non-recurring costs MS1= $1M - $15M

MS2= $50M - $100M

MS3= $100M - $500M See [CAEP-SG/20082-WP/18] 25 

# for further

description of the NOx technology response. Nonrecurring costs applied once per engine family

ICCAIA – International Coordinating Counc il of Aerospace Industries Associations

MS – Modification Status

TL – Technology Level

25 

# Ref

. [CAEP-SG/20082-WP/18] “NO X 

# Stringency Technology Response Assessment”. Wo rking paper submitted by WG1 and WG3 at the

second Steering Group meeting of the CAEP/8 cycle held in Seattle (United States) on September 22-26, 2008.

# A-3 CAEP/14-IP/14

Appendix A



# Table A.2 - Assumptions for CAEP/8 NOx Stringency Economic Analysis (continued)

Modelling Item Assumptions Comments

Cost from increased

noise trade-off for NOx

technology response Incremental non-recurring for

MS3 = $0, $10M, $100M

[3 sensitivity runs] Per WG1 recommendation, NSTG to conduct a cost

sensitivity analysis on three different non-recurring

(E&D) scenarios as shown to the left. Applied only

to MS3 technology response

Incremental fuel burn MS1= 0%

MS2= 0%

MS3= 0% - 0.5% From WG3 / ICCAIA Technology Response

assumptions.

Incremental engine

maintenance cost

($/EFH) MS1= $0

MS2= $0 - 2 (average = $1)

MS3= $0 - 4 (average = $2) ICCAIA recommendations show to left.

Incremental recurring

manufacturing

(production) costs MS1 = $0

MS2 = 0-0.5% (0.25%) $ 20,000

MS3 =0.2-0.8% (0.5%) $ 40,000 For CAEP/8 analysis, continue to use the CAEP/6

method for estimating recurring costs. Recurring

engine manufacturing cost increase is due to

complexity, material, etc. (does not include

amortized non-recurring costs). The estimates were

based upon the following assumptions:

a) the combustor is 5% of the engine cost;

b) MS1 is minor changes and testing so

incremental recurring cost is $0

c) MS2 and MS3 technology response increase

combustor costs by a relatively small

amount.



# d) the average engine price for the CAEP/8

analysis based on review of the mid-2008

AVITAS Engine Value Guide for new

engine prices and applying engine cycles

for the engines to be delivered as growth

and replacement over the 30 year time

horizon as weighting factors is estimated to

be $8.6M. Multiplying this average engine

price by the incremental production costs

percentage increases shown to the left and

rounding to the nearest 10,000 results is

values equal to those used for the CAEP/6

analysis



# . Cost for Incremental

Spare Engine Inventory ICCAIA had recommended engine

interchangeability as follows:

MS1 - 100%

MS2 - 100%

MS3 - 50% For the MS1 and MS2, where the engines are

assumed to be 100% interchangeable with the same

engine models being manufactured before NOx

stringency was implemented, then no incremental

spare engines would be required. For MS3, 50% of

the engines receiving MS3 technology response, will

require incremental spare e ngines to support the fleet

after NOx stringency is im plemented due to lack of

commonality and interchangeability

EFH – Engine Flight Hours

E&D – Exploration and Development

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix A 

# A-4

Table A.2 - Assumptions for CAEP/8 NOx Stringency Economic Analysis (continued)

Modelling Item Assumptions Comments

Engine price for spare

engines Average = $8.6 M

For the 15% stringency for Large

Engines, a weighted average price

for engines requiring MS3 was

estimated to be $24.3M

For the 20% stringency for Large

Engines, the weighted average

price for engines requiring MS3

was estimated to be $12M The average engine price for the CAEP/8 analysis

based on review of the mid-2008 AVITAS Engine

Value Guide for new engine prices and applying

engine cycles for the engines to be delivered as

growth and replacement over the 30 year time

horizon as weighting factors is estimated to be

$8.6M.

A more detailed assessment was used to estimate a

weighted average engine price to be used for spare

engines, considering only those engines that would

require a MS3 technology response for each

stringency scenario. Only the 15% and 20%

stringency scenarios required MS3 responses for

some of the engine families.

Spare engine function Use CAEP/6 spares curve Spares curve from CAEP/6 to be used: # installed

engines vs % spares

The equation for estimating the number of spare

engines required at the global fleet level is:

number spare engines = 0.5891 * number installed

engines ^ -0.3758

Loss of Asset Value

(Residual Value) ICCAIA recommends

using CAEP/6 values

MS1 = no modification

package

MS2 = $250,000 per engine

MS3 = $500,000 per engine Loss of Asset Value is a cost applicable to the

production models that will not comply with NOx

stringency being delivered before the stringency

implementation year. Once stringency is

implemented these same non-compliant engine

models receive the MSx technology responses (x =

1, 2 or 3).

Discussion on retrofit timing – recommend we

model retrofit incorporation at same year stringency

takes effect

# A-5 CAEP/14-IP/14

Appendix A



# Table A.2 - Assumptions for CAEP/8 NOx Stringency Economic Analysis (continued)

Modelling Item Assumptions Comments

Lost revenue due to

incremental fuel burn

impact from MS3

technology response.

Aircraft payload /

range capabilities not

preserved. Instead,

estimate cost of lost

revenue Percent of Annual Trips

MTOW limited

-Twin-Aisle aircraft: 1 –19%,

always offload cargo first (use 5%)

-Single-Aisle aircraft: nil –2%,

passengers offloaded as very little

cargo on short, single aisle aircraft

missions (use 0.5%)

Representative distance for

MTOW limited flights:

Single aisle = 2100 NM

Twin aisle = 5000 NM

Revenue offload

[For Engines on aircraft requiring

MS3 technology responses]

Single Aisle = -1 PAX (100kg),

0.5% of annual trips

For Twin Aisle:

A330, 767= -500lb

A340, 777= -1000lb

Average = -750lb (340 kg)

5% frequency of annual trips

Revenue Yields at representative

stage lengths:

-Passenger rev. yield =

$0.075/RPK

-Cargo rev. yield = $0.26/RTK

lb - pound

NM – Nautical mile

PAX – Passenger

RPK – Revenue-passenger kilometre

RTK – Revenue-tonne kilometre 

# For CAEP/8, the FESG NOx stringency task group

agreed to replace the CAEP/6 approach, which

assumed aircraft mission and payload maintained,

with a method to calculate the revenue loss resulting

from an increase in 0. 5% fuel burn for MS3

technology response. This loss of revenue would be

incurred on long-range MTOW limited missions.

The frequency of operating at the payload / range

limits may be a few percent of the annual utilization.

FESG NSTG cost group surv eyed airlines in order

to assess the operational assumptions needed for this

approach.

Critical assumptions: 1) percent of annual utilization

at MTOW limited range,

2) MTOW limited range, 3) representative yields

Representative distance (stage length) for

MTOW limited flights-80th percentile route

lengths (OAG-SM)

A320 = 1155

A330 = 3892

A340-500=7505

A340-600=5860

767-300=4108

777-200 LR=7790

777-300 ER=5810

Based on review of FESG traffic and fleet forecast

and the assumptions on percent annual trips

impacted, distance to use:

Single aisle = 2100 NM

Twin aisle = 5000 NM

Revenue passenger yield at a 2100 NM stage length

was derived from the IATA provided yield data for

2007 (UBS Q-Series Global Aviation report,

September 2008 & IATA Analysis), which provides

a system average. The system average revenue

passenger yield was then adjusted by the yield

adjustment curve provid ed by an Industry

representative for a distan ce of 2100 miles. The

system average distance was at 1000 miles

Cargo yields were determined from comparing

IATA 2007 system average yields, yield data

collected by a manufactur er from the 2008 AEA

Star Report and data obtained from public sources

used as inputs in the APMT-Economics model. The

values were reasonably close. The system wide

values were adjusted to the 5000 NM distance using

the yield - distance adjustment curve.CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix AA-6Figure A.3 – NOx Stringency Economic Assessment Task FlowCAEP/8-IP/14Appendix BAPPENDIX BFigure B.1Cumulative Costs ($ Millions), 2009 – 2036, Combinedsmall and large enginesStr07 = Small engines [-15%, -15%], large engines [-15%, slope = 2]Str10 = Small engines [-20%, -20%], large engines [-20%, slope = 2.2]$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,0002012 Str07 APMT-E 2016 Str07 APMT-E 2012 Str10 APMT-E 2016 Str10 APMT-E 2012 Str07 NCM 2016 Str07 NCM 2012 Str10 NCM 2016 Str10 NCMa. Non-Recurring E&D Costc. Incremental Engine Production Costd. Annual Maintenance Cost Increasee. Annual Fuel Cost Increasef. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights)g. Cost in Additional Spare EnginesAPMT-Economics NOx Cost ModelAPPENDIX CFigure C.1$-$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,0000.00.20.40.60.81.0

$ 2 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s

$ 2 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 4 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eNS1-5NS6-7NS8-10NOx Cost Effectiveness Summary*Assumes loss in resale valueLTO NOx Reduction(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost* ($ Million, 2009 – 2036)To ~$32B

$ 4 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 50, 0 00/t o n n e

$ 5 5 , 0 0 0 / to n n e

$ 6 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eCombined Engines• 0% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeCombined Engines• 0% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeNOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineNOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineCAEP/8-IP/14Appendix CC-2Figure C.2$-$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,0000.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

$ 2 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s

$ 2 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 4 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eNOx Cost Effectiveness Summary*Assumes loss in resale valueLTO NOx Reduction(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost* ($ Million, 2009 – 2036) $ 4 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 50 , 0 00 / t o n n e

$ 5 5 , 0 0 0 / to n n e

$ 6 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eCombined Engines• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeCombined Engines• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeNS6-7NS8-10NS1-5NOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineNOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineC-3 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix CFigure C.3$-$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,0000.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

$ 2 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s

$ 2 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 4 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eNOx Cost Effectiveness Summary*Assumes loss in resale valueLTO NOx Reduction(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost* ($ Million, 2009 – 2036) $ 4 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 0 , 0 0 0 /t o n n e

$ 5 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 6 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eCombined Engines• 7% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeCombined Engines• 7% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeNS1-5NS6-7NS8-10NOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineNOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineCAEP/8-IP/14Appendix CC-4Figure C.4$-$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,0000.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

$ 2 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s

$ 2 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eNOx Cost Effectiveness Summary*Assumes loss in resale valueLTO NOx Reduction(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost* ($ Million, 2009 – 2036) $ 4 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 0 , 0 0 0 /t o n n e

$ 5 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 6 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eCombined Engines• 9% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeCombined Engines• 9% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost range $ 4 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eNS1-5NS6-7NS8-10NOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineNOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineC-5 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix CFigure C.5$-$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,0000.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

$ 2 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s

$ 2 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 4 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eNOx Cost Effectiveness Summary*Assumes loss in resale valueLTO NOx Reduction(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost* ($ Million, 2009 – 2036) $ 4 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 0 , 0 0 0 /t o n n e

$ 5 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 6 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eCombined Engines• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeCombined Engines• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeNS6-7NS8-10No Loss in Resale ValueNS1-5NOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineNOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineCAEP/8-IP/14Appendix CC-6Figure C.6$-$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,0000.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

$ 2 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s

$ 2 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 4 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eNOx Cost Effectiveness Summary*Assumes loss in resale valueLTO NOx Reduction(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost* ($ Million, 2009 – 2036) $ 4 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 0 , 0 0 0 /t o n n e

$ 5 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 6 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eCombined Engines• 3% discount rate• 2012 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeCombined Engines• 3% discount rate• 2012 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeNS6-7NS8-10NS1-52012 stringency effectivityNOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineNOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineC-7 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix CFigure C.7$-$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,0000.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

$ 2 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s

$ 2 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 4 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eNOx Cost Effectiveness Summary*Assumes loss in resale valueLTO NOx Reduction(Million Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost* ($ Million, 2009 – 2036) $ 4 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 5 0 , 0 0 0 /t o n n e

$ 5 5 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 6 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eLarge Engines• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeLarge Engines• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeNS6-7NS8-10NS1-5NOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineNOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineCAEP/8-IP/14Appendix CC-8Figure C.8$-$100$200$300$400$5000 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

$ 4 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 3 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 2 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 1 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s

$ 5 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 6 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 7 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n e

$ 8 0 , 0 0 0 / t o n n eNOx Cost Effectiveness Summary*Assumes loss in resale valueLTO NOx Reduction(Tonnes, 2009 – 2036)

Industry Cost* ($ Million, 2009 – 2036)Small Engines• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeSmall Engines• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeNS2,3NS9NS1,4,6NS8NS10NS5,7NOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineNOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineC-9 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix CFigure C.9$-$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000 NS 0 5

NS07 _ MS3 N S0 7_ M S3 +F B NS07 _ M S 3+FB+N NS10_MS 3 N S 10_ M S3 +F B NS10 _ M S 3+FB+NNOxCost Effectiveness SummarySelect NOx Stringencies

Cost Effectiveness ($ Per Tonne LTO NOx Reduction)Combined Engines• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeCombined Engines• 3% discount rate• 2016 stringency effectivity• Low/high cost rangeBetterFB = effect of 0.5% fuel burn penalty w/MS3FB+N = additional noise mitigation costNOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large EngineNOXSmall EngineStringencyCase # (26.7kN / 89kN) Stringency (Slope>30OPR)1 -5% / -5% -5% 22-10% / -10% -10% 2.23-10% / -10% -10% 24-5% / -15% -15% 2.25-15% / -15% -15% 2.26 -5% / -15%-15% 27-15% / -15% -15% 28 -10% / -20% -20% 2.29 -15% / -20% -20% 2.210 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2Large Engine

# (86 pages)

CAEP.8.IP.014.3.3.ver.en.doc 

# APPENDIX D

NO X 

# COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NO X 

# STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 1 2 41 42 3 4 43 44 5 6 45 46

NOx Stringency Option NS01 NS01 NS01 NS01 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS03 NS03 NS03 NS03

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High

MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

D. Summary of Cost Impacts

D-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $)

Non-recurring

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $15 $1 $15 $51 $115 $51 $115 $51 $115 $51 $115

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $200 $400 $200 $400 $200 $400 $200 $400 $251 $515 $251 $515

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $7 $7 $6 $6 $7 $7 $6 $6

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $12 $12 $10 $10 $12 $12 $10 $10

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $18 $18 $16 $16 $18 $18 $16 $16

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $412 $412 $369 $369 $412 $412 $369 $369 $433 $433 $388 $388

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $785 $785 $599 $599 $785 $785 $599 $599 $828 $828 $631 $631

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $1,198 $1,198 $967 $967 $1,198 $1,198 $967 $967 $1,262 $1,262 $1,019 $1,019

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $11 $11 $16 $16 $11 $11 $16 $16

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $949 $949 $1,525 $1,525 $949 $949 $1, 525 $1,525 $988 $988 $1,586 $1,586

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $1 $15 $1 $15 $80 $144 $82 $146 $80 $144 $82 $146

p. Large Engines $2,347 $2,547 $2,692 $2,892 $2,347 $2,547 $2,692 $2,892 $2,501 $2,765 $2,856 $3,120

GRAND TOTAL $2,348 $2,562 $2,693 $2,907 $2,427 $2,691 $2,774 $3,038 $2,581 $2,909 $2,938 $3,266

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - - - - - - - - - - -

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - - - - - - - - - - -

D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Non-recurring

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $14 $1 $12 $49 $109 $43 $97 $49 $109 $43 $97

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $191 $383 $170 $340 $191 $383 $170 $340 $240 $492 $213 $437

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $6 $6 $5 $5 $6 $6 $5 $5

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $11 $11 $9 $9 $11 $11 $9 $9

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $260 $260 $221 $221 $260 $260 $221 $221 $274 $274 $233 $233

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $445 $445 $327 $327 $445 $445 $327 $327 $469 $469 $345 $345

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $705 $705 $548 $548 $705 $705 $548 $548 $743 $743 $577 $577

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $10 $10 $12 $12 $10 $10 $12 $12

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $843 $843 $1,204 $1,204 $843 $843 $1, 204 $1,204 $878 $878 $1,252 $1,252

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $1 $14 $1 $12 $69 $130 $65 $119 $69 $130 $65 $119

p. Large Engines $1,739 $1,931 $1,922 $2,092 $1,739 $1,931 $1,922 $2,092 $1,861 $2,113 $2,043 $2,267

GRAND TOTAL $1,740 $1,945 $1,922 $2,104 $1,808 $2,061 $1,986 $2,210 $1,930 $2,242 $2,107 $2,385

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - - - - - - - - - - -

r. Increased CO

2 

# Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - - - - - - - - - - -

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix D 

# D-2

NO X 

# COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NO X 

# STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Co sts (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 1 2 41 42 3 4 43 44 5 6 45 

# 46

NOx Stringency Option NS01 NS01 NS01 NS01 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS02 NS03 NS03 NS03 

# NS03

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 

# 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low 

# High

MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 

# N/A

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/ A N/ A N/ A N/ A N/ A N/ A N/ A N/ A N/ A N/ A N/ A 

# N/ A

D-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 

# 7%

Non-recurring

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $9 $46 $103 $35 $78 $46 $103 $35 

# $78

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $181 $362 $138 $276 $181 $362 $138 $276 $227 $465 $173 

# $355

Recurring

Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 

# $2

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $3 $2 $2 $3 $3 $2 

# $2

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

# $0

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

# $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

# $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $6 $6 $4 $4 $6 $6 $4 

# $4

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $152 $152 $119 $119 $152 $152 $119 $119 $160 $160 $126 

# $126

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $223 $223 $155 $155 $223 $223 $155 $155 $236 $236 $163 

# $163

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

# $0

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

# $0

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

# $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $376 $376 $274 $274 $376 $376 $274 $274 $396 $396 $289 

# $289

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $8 $8 $9 $9 $8 $8 $9 

# $9

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $724 $724 $887 $887 $724 $724 $887 $887 $754 $754 $923 

# $923

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $9 $60 $117 $49 $92 $60 $117 $49 

# $92

p. Large Engines $1,281 $1,462 $1,300 $1,438 $1,281 $1,462 $1,300 $1,438 $1,377 $1,615 $1,385 

# $1,567

GRAND TOTAL $1,282 $1,474 $1,300 $1,447 $1,341 $1,579 $1,348 $1,530 $1,437 $1,732 $1,434 

# $1,659

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.)

- - - - - - - - - - - 

# - r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes)

- - - - - - - - - - - 

# -

D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 

# 9%

Non-recurring

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $8 $45 $100 $32 $71 $45 $100 $32 

# $71

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $177 $353 $125 $250 $177 $353 $125 $250 $221 $453 $157 

# $321

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 

# $2

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 

# $2

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

# $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

# $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

# $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $4 $4 $3 $3 $4 $4 $3 

# $3

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $120 $120 $90 $90 $120 $120 $90 $90 $127 $127 $95 

# $95

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $163 $163 $109 $109 $163 $163 $109 $109 $172 $172 $115 

# $115

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

# $0

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

# $0

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

# $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $283 $283 $199 $199 $283 $283 $199 $199 $299 $299 $210 

# $210

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 

# $8

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $672 $672 $765 $765 $672 $672 $765 $765 $700 $700 $796 

# $796

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $8 $57 $112 $43 $82 $57 $112 $43 

# $82

p. Large Engines $1,132 $1,309 $1,089 $1,214 $1,132 $1,309 $1,089 $1,214 $1,220 $1,451 $1,162 

# $1,326

GRAND TOTAL $1,133 $1,320 $1,090 $1,222 $1,189 $1,420 $1,132 $1,296 $1,277 $1,563 $1,205 

# $1,408

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.)

- - - - - - - - - - - 

# -

r. Increased CO

2 

# Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - - - - - - - - - -



# -

# D-3 CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix D

NO X 

# COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NO X 

# STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Co sts (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 7 8 47 48 9 10 49 50

NOx Stringency Option NS04 NS04 NS04 NS04 NS05 NS05 NS05 NS05

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High

MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

D. Summary of Cost Impacts

D-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $)

Non-recurrin g

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $15 $1 $15 $101 $215 $101 $215

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $252 $530 $252 $530 $252 $530 $252 $530

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $11 $11 $10 $10

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $19 $19 $16 $16

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $30 $30 $26 $26

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $433 $433 $388 $388 $433 $433 $388 $388

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $828 $828 $631 $631 $828 $828 $631 $631

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $1,262 $1,262 $1,019 $1,019 $1,262 $1,262 $1,019 $1,019

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $21 $21 $31 $31

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $988 $988 $1,586 $1,586 $988 $988 $1,586 $1,586

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $1 $15 $1 $15 $152 $266 $158 $272

p. Large Engines $2,502 $2,780 $2,857 $3,135 $2,502 $2,780 $2,857 $3,135

GRAND TOTAL $2,503 $2,795 $2,858 $3,150 $2,654 $3,046 $3,015 $3,407

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.)

- - - - - - - - r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes)

- - - - - - - -

D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Non-recurring

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $14 $1 $12 $97 $205 $86 $182

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $241 $506 $214 $450 $241 $506 $214 $450

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $7 $7 $6 $6

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $11 $11 $9 $9

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $18 $18 $15 $15

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $274 $274 $233 $233 $274 $274 $233 $233

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $469 $469 $345 $345 $469 $469 $345 $345

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $743 $743 $577 $577 $743 $743 $577 $577

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $19 $19 $25 $25

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $878 $878 $1,252 $1,252 $878 $878 $1,252 $1,252

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $1 $14 $1 $12 $133 $242 $125 $222

p. Large Engines $1,862 $2,126 $2,043 $2,279 $1,862 $2,126 $2,043 $2,279

GRAND TOTAL $1,862 $2,140 $2,044 $2,291 $1,995 $2,368 $2,169 $2,500

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.)

- - - - - - - -

r. Increased CO

2 

# Emissions (Mega tonnes)

- - - - - - - -

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix D 

# D-4

NO X 

# COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NO X 

# STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 7 8 47 48 9 10 49 50

NOx Stringency Option NS04 NS04 NS04 NS04 NS05 NS05 NS05 NS05

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2016 2016 2012 2012 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High

MS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

D-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%

Non-recurrin g

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $9 $91 $193 $70 $148

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $228 $478 $174 $364 $228 $478 $174 $364

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $4 $4 $3 $3

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $5 $5 $4 $4

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $9 $9 $7 $7

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $160 $160 $126 $126 $160 $160 $126 $126

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $236 $236 $163 $163 $236 $236 $163 $163

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $396 $396 $289 $289 $396 $396 $289 $289

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $16 $16 $18 $18

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $754 $754 $923 $923 $754 $754 $923 $923

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $9 $117 $219 $95 $173

p. Large Engines $1,378 $1,627 $1,386 $1,576 $1,378 $1,627 $1,386 $1,576

GRAND TOTAL $1,379 $1,639 $1,386 $1,585 $1,495 $1,846 $1,481 $1,749

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.)

- - - - - - - - r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes)

- - - - - - - -

D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

Non-recurring

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $8 $89 $188 $63 $133

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $222 $465 $157 $329 $222 $465 $157 $329

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $3 $3 $3

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $4 $4 $3 $3

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $7 $7 $5 $5

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $127 $127 $95 $95 $127 $127 $95 $95

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $172 $172 $115 $115 $172 $172 $115 $115

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $299 $299 $210 $210 $299 $299 $210 $210

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $15 $15 $16 $16

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $700 $700 $796 $796 $700 $700 $796 $796

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $8 $111 $210 $84 $154

p. Large Engines $1,221 $1,463 $1,163 $1,335 $1,221 $1,463 $1,163 $1,335

GRAND TOTAL $1,221 $1,475 $1,164 $1,343 $1,332 $1,673 $1,247 $1,489

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - - - - - - -

r. Increased CO

2 

# Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - - - - - - -

# D-5 CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix D

NO X 

# COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NO X 

# STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Co sts (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 11 12 13 14 15 16 51 52 53 54 55 56

NOx Stringency Option NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High

MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0. 5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0. 5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes

D. Summary of Cost Impacts

D-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $)

Non-recurrin g

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $451 $1,515 $451 $1,515 $471 $1,715 $451 $1,515 $451 $1,515 $471 $1,715

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $762 $762 $762 $762 $762 $762 $690 $690 $690 $690 $690 $690

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $1,551 $1,551 $1, 551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,194 $1,194 $1,194 $1,194 $1,194 $1 ,194

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $3,076 $3, 076 $3,076 $3,076 $0 $0 $2,403 $2,403 $2,403 $2,403

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $991 $991 $991 $991 $0 $0 $809 $809 $809 $809

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,097 $3,097 $3, 097 $3,097 $3,097 $3,097 $3,719 $3,719 $3,719 $3,719 $3,719 $3, 719

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $5,410 $5,410 $9,477 $9,477 $9,477 $9,477 $5,602 $5,602 $8,814 $8,814 $8,814 $8 ,814

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $2,716 $2,716 $2,716 $2,716 $2,716 $2,716

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15

p. Large Engines $7,529 $8,593 $11,596 $12,660 $11,616 $12,860 $8,769 $9,833 $11,981 $13,045 $12,001 $13,245

GRAND TOTAL $7,530 $8,608 $11,597 $12,675 $11,617 $12,875 $8,770 $9,848 $11,982 $13,060 $12,002 $13,260

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 - - 801 801 801 801

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 - - 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7

D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Non-recurring

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $432 $1,449 $432 $1,449 $451 $1,641 $384 $1,288 $384 $1,288 $401 $1,458

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $480 $480 $480 $480 $480 $480 $414 $414 $414 $414 $414 $414

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $876 $876 $876 $876 $876 $876 $651 $651 $651 $651 $651 $651

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $1,733 $1, 733 $1,733 $1,733 $0 $0 $1,307 $1,307 $1,307 $1,307

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $548 $548 $548 $548 $0 $0 $434 $434 $434 $434

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $2,635 $2,635 $2, 635 $2,635 $2,635 $2,635 $2,819 $2,819 $2,819 $2,819 $2,819 $2, 819

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $3,991 $3,991 $6,272 $6,272 $6,272 $6,272 $3,883 $3,883 $5,624 $5,624 $5,624 $5 ,624

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $1,481 $1,481 $1,481 $1,481 $1,481 $1,481 $2,144 $2,144 $2,144 $2,144 $2,144 $2,144

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12

p. Large Engines $5,904 $6,922 $8,185 $9,203 $8,205 $9,395 $6,411 $7,315 $8,152 $9,056 $8,169 $9,226

GRAND TOTAL $5,905 $6,936 $8,186 $9,217 $8,205 $9,408 $6,412 $7,327 $8,152 $9,068 $8,169 $9,238

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 578 578 578 578 - - 436 436 436 436

r. Increased CO

2 

# Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 - - 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix D 

# D-6

NO X 

# COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NO X 

# STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Co sts (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 11 12 13 14 15 16 51 52 53 54 55 56

NOx Stringency Option NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06 NS06

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High

MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0. 5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0. 5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes

D-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%

Non-recurrin g

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $9 $1 $9 $1 $9

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $409 $1,371 $409 $1,371 $427 $1,553 $312 $1,046 $312 $1,046 $326 $1,184

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $281 $281 $281 $281 $281 $281 $223 $223 $223 $223 $223 $223

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $439 $439 $439 $439 $439 $439 $307 $307 $307 $307 $307 $307

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $864 $864 $864 $864 $0 $0 $616 $616 $616 $616

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $267 $267 $267 $267 $0 $0 $200 $200 $200 $200

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $2,145 $2,145 $2, 145 $2,145 $2,145 $2,145 $1,978 $1,978 $1,978 $1,978 $1,978 $1, 978

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $2,865 $2,865 $3,995 $3,995 $3,995 $3,995 $2,508 $2,508 $3,324 $3,324 $3,324 $3 ,324

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $1,272 $1,272 $1,272 $1,272 $1,272 $1,272 $1,581 $1,581 $1,581 $1,581 $1,581 $1,581

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $9 $1 $9 $1 $9

p. Large Engines $4,545 $5,508 $5,676 $6,639 $5,694 $6,820 $4,401 $5,135 $5,216 $5,951 $5,230 $6,089

GRAND TOTAL $4,546 $5,520 $5,677 $6,651 $5,695 $6,832 $4,401 $5,145 $5,217 $5,960 $5,230 $6,098

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 288 288 288 288 - - 205 205 205 205

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 - - 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

Non-recurring

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $8 $1 $8 $1 $8

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $398 $1,336 $398 $1,336 $416 $1,512 $282 $946 $282 $946 $294 $1,071

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $221 $221 $221 $221 $221 $221 $168 $168 $168 $168 $168 $168

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $320 $320 $320 $320 $320 $320 $216 $216 $216 $216 $216 $216

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $628 $628 $628 $628 $0 $0 $433 $433 $433 $433

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $191 $191 $191 $191 $0 $0 $139 $139 $139 $139

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $1,943 $1,943 $1, 943 $1,943 $1,943 $1,943 $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $1,667 $1, 667

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $2,484 $2,484 $3,303 $3,303 $3,303 $3,303 $2,051 $2,051 $2,623 $2,623 $2,623 $2 ,623

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines $1,181 $1,181 $1,181 $1,181 $1,181 $1,181 $1,363 $1,363 $1,363 $1,363 $1,363 $1,363

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $8 $1 $8 $1 $8

p. Large Engines $4,063 $5,001 $4,883 $5,820 $4,900 $5,997 $3,696 $4,360 $4,268 $4,932 $4,280 $5,057

GRAND TOTAL $4,064 $5,012 $4,883 $5,832 $4,901 $6,008 $3,697 $4,369 $4,268 $4,940 $4,281 $5,065

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 209 209 209 209 - - 144 144 144 144

r. Increased CO

2 

# Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 - - 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4D-7 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix DNOXCOST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOXSTRINGENCYSummary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time HorizonFuel Price SensitivitySection D-1 Presents CumulativeCosts (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)22 22 62 62Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value ofCosts at 3%, 7% and9% Discount Rates($1.50)($4.50)($1.50)($4.50)Model Run 17 18 19 20 21 22 57 58 59 60 61 62 81 82 83 84NOx Stringency OptionNS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07Stringency Year2012201220122012201220122016201620162016201620162012201220162016MS Non-RecurringCost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High High High High HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0% 0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurringfor Noise Included No No No NoYes Yes No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesD. Summary of Cost ImpactsD-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $)Non-recurringa. Non-RecurringE&D Cost - Small Engines $101 $215 $101 $215 $101 $215 $101 $215 $101 $215 $101 $215 $215 $215 $215 $215b. Non-RecurringE&D Cost - Large Engines $451 $1,515 $451 $1,515 $471 $1,715 $451 $1,515 $451 $1,515 $471 $1,715$1,715 $1,715 $1,715 $1,715RecurringSmall Enginesc. Incremental Engine Production Cost $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $11 $11 $10 $10d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $19 $19 $16 $16e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 $26 $26 $26 $26 $26 $26 $30 $30 $26 $26Large Enginesh. Incremental Engine Production Cost $762 $762 $762 $762 $762 $762 $690 $690 $690 $690 $690 $690 $762 $762 $690 $690i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $1,551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,551 $1,194$1,194 $1,194 $1,194 $1,194 $1,194 $1,551 $1,551 $1,194 $1,194j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $3,076 $3,076$3,076 $3,076 $0 $0 $2,403 $2,403 $2,403 $2,403 $1,538 $4,614 $1,201 $3,604k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $991 $991 $991 $991 $0 $0 $809 $809 $809 $809 $991 $991 $809 $809l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,122 $3,122 $3,122 $3,122$3,122 $3,122 $3,748 $3,748 $3,748 $3,748 $3,748 $3,748$3,122 $3,122 $3,748 $3,748Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $5,435 $5,435 $9,502 $9,502 $9,502 $9,502 $5,631 $5,631 $8,843 $8,843 $8,843 $8,843 $7,964$11,040 $7,642 $10,044m. Lost Value in ExistingFleets - Small Engines 21 21 21 21 21 21 31 31 31 31 31 31 21 21 31 31n. Lost Value in ExistingFleets - Large Engines 1,667 1,667 1,667 1,667 1,667 1,667 2,716 2,716 2,716 2,716 2,716 2,716 1,6671,667 2,716 2,716GRAND TOTALo. Small Engines$152$266$152$266$152$266$158$272$158$272$158$272$266$266$272$272p. Large Engines$7,553$8,617$11,620$12,684$11,640$12,884$8,798$9,862$12,010$13,074$12,030$13,274$11,346$14,422$12,073$14,475GRAND TOTAL $7,705$8,883$11,772$12,950$11,792$13,150$8,956$10,134$12,168$13,346$12,188$13,546$11,612$14,688$12,345$14,748q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil.gals.) - - 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 - - 801 801 801 801 1,025 1,025 801 801r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 - -7.7 7.7 7.7 7.79.8 9.8 7.7 7.7D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%Non-recurringGrand Totala. Non-RecurringE&D Cost - Small Engines $97 $205 $97 $205 $97 $205 $86 $182 $86 $182 $86 $182 $205 $205 $182 $182b. Non-RecurringE&D Cost - Large Engines $432 $1,449 $432 $1,449 $451 $1,641 $384 $1,288 $384 $1,288 $401 $1,458$1,641 $1,641 $1,458 $1,458RecurringSmall Enginesc. Incremental Engine Production Cost $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $7 $7 $6 $6d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $11 $11 $9 $9e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $18 $18 $15 $15Large Enginesh. Incremental Engine Production Cost $480 $480 $480 $480 $480 $480 $414 $414 $414 $414 $414 $414 $480 $480 $414 $414i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $876 $876 $876 $876 $876 $876 $651 $651 $651 $651 $651 $651 $876 $876 $651 $651j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $1,733 $1,733 $1,733 $1,733 $0 $0 $1,307 $1,307 $1,307 $1,307 $866 $2,599 $653 $1,960k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $548 $548 $548 $548 $0 $0 $434 $434 $434 $434 $548 $548 $434 $434l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $2,655 $2,655 $2,655 $2,655$2,655 $2,655 $2,841 $2,841 $2,841 $2,841 $2,841 $2,841$2,655 $2,655 $2,841 $2,841Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,012 $4,012 $6,293 $6,293 $6,293 $6,293 $3,905 $3,905 $5,646 $5,646 $5,646 $5,646 $5,427$7,159 $4,993 $6,300m. Lost Value in ExistingFleets - Small Engines 19 19 19 19 19 19 25 25 25 25 25 25 19 19 25 25n. Lost Value in ExistingFleets - Large Engines 1,481 1,481 1,481 1,481 1,481 1,481 2,144 2,144 2,144 2,144 2,144 2,144 1,4811,481 2,144 2,144GRAND TOTALo. Small Engines$133$242$133$242$133$242$125$222$125$222$125$222$242$242$222$222p. Large Engines$5,925$6,943$8,206$9,224$8,225$9,415$6,433$7,337$8,174$9,078$8,191$9,248$8,549$10,282$8,595$9,902GRAND TOTAL $6,058$7,185$8,339$9,466$8,358$9,657$6,558$7,559$8,299$9,300$8,316$9,470$8,791$10,523$8,816$10,123q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil.gals.) - - 578 578 578 578 - - 436 436 436 436 578 578 436 436r. Increased CO2Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 - -4.2 4.2 4.2 4.25.5 5.5 4.2 4.2CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix DD-8NOXCOST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOXSTRINGENCYSummary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time HorizonFuel Price SensitivitySection D-1 Presents CumulativeCosts (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)22 22 62 62Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value ofCosts at 3%, 7% and9% Discount Rates($1.50)($4.50)($1.50)($4.50)Model Run 17 18 19 20 21 22 57 58 59 60 61 6281 82 83 84NOx Stringency OptionNS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07Stringency Year2012201220122012201220122016201620162016201620162012201220162016MS Non-RecurringCost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low HighHigh High High HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0% 0% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurringfor Noise Included No NoNo No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesYes Yes Yes YesD-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%Non-recurringGrand Totala. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $91 $193 $91 $193 $91 $193 $70 $148 $70 $148 $70 $148$193 $193 $148 $148b. Non-RecurringE&D Cost - Large Engines $409 $1,371 $409 $1,371 $427$1,553 $312 $1,046 $312 $1,046 $326 $1,184$1,553 $1,553 $1,184 $1,184RecurringSmall Enginesc. Incremental Engine Production Cost $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3$4 $4 $3 $3d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4$5 $5 $4 $4e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0$0 $0 $0 $0f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0$0 $0 $0 $0g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0$0 $0 $0 $0Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7$9 $9 $7 $7Large Enginesh. Incremental Engine Production Cost $281 $281 $281 $281 $281 $281 $223 $223 $223 $223 $223 $223$281 $281 $223 $223i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $439 $439 $439 $439 $439 $439 $307 $307 $307 $307 $307 $307$439 $439 $307 $307j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $864 $864 $864 $864 $0 $0 $616 $616 $616 $616$432 $1,296 $308 $923k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $267 $267 $267 $267 $0 $0 $200 $200 $200 $200$267 $267 $200 $200l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $2,162 $2,162 $2,162 $2,162 $2,162 $2,162 $1,993$1,993 $1,993 $1,993 $1,993 $1,993$2,162 $2,162 $1,993 $1,993Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $2,881 $2,881 $4,012 $4,012 $4,012$4,012 $2,524 $2,524 $3,339$3,339 $3,339 $3,339$3,580 $4,444 $3,031 $3,647m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 16 16 16 16 16 16 18 18 18 18 18 1816 16 18 18n. Lost Value in ExistingFleets - Large Engines 1,272 1,272 1,272 1,272 1,2721,272 1,581 1,581 1,5811,581 1,581 1,5811,272 1,272 1,581 1,581GRAND TOTALo. Small Engines$117$219$117$219$117$219$95$173$95$173$95$173$219$219$173$173p. Large Engines$4,562$5,525$5,693$6,655$5,711$6,837$4,416$5,151$5,231$5,966$5,245$6,104$6,405$7,269$5,796$6,412GRAND TOTAL$4,679$5,744$5,810$6,875$5,828$7,056$4,512$5,324$5,327$6,139$5,341$6,277$6,624$7,488$5,970$6,585q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 288 288 288 288 - - 205 205 205 205288 288 205 205r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 - - 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.02.8 2.8 2.0 2.0D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%Non-recurringGrand Totala. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $89 $188 $89 $188 $89 $188 $63 $133 $63 $133 $63 $133$188 $188 $133 $133b. Non-RecurringE&D Cost - Large Engines $398 $1,336 $398 $1,336 $416 $1,512 $282 $946 $282 $946 $294 $1,071$1,512 $1,512 $1,071 $1,071RecurringSmall Enginesc. Incremental Engine Production Cost $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3$3 $3 $3 $3d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3$4 $4 $3 $3e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0$0 $0 $0 $0f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0$0 $0 $0 $0g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0$0 $0 $0 $0Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines$7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5$7 $7 $5 $5Large Enginesh. Incremental Engine Production Cost $221 $221 $221 $221 $221 $221 $168 $168 $168 $168 $168 $168$221 $221 $168 $168i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $320 $320 $320 $320 $320 $320 $216 $216 $216 $216 $216 $216$320 $320 $216 $216j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $628 $628 $628 $628 $0 $0 $433 $433 $433 $433$314 $942 $216 $649k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $191 $191 $191 $191 $0 $0 $139 $139 $139 $139$191 $191 $139 $139l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $1,958 $1,958 $1,958 $1,958 $1,958 $1,958 $1,680$1,680 $1,680 $1,680 $1,680 $1,680$1,958 $1,958 $1,680 $1,680Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $2,499 $2,499 $3,319 $3,319 $3,319$3,319 $2,064 $2,064 $2,636$2,636 $2,636 $2,636$3,005 $3,633 $2,419 $2,852m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 1615 15 16 16n. Lost Value in ExistingFleets - Large Engines 1,181 1,181 1,181 1,181 1,1811,181 1,363 1,363 1,3631,363 1,363 1,3631,181 1,181 1,363 1,363GRAND TOTALo. Small Engines$111$210$111$210$111$210$84$154$84$154$84$154$210$210$154$154p. Large Engines$4,078$5,016$4,898$5,836$4,915$6,012$3,709$4,373$4,281$4,945$4,293$5,070$5,698$6,326$4,854$5,286GRAND TOTAL$4,189$5,226$5,009$6,046$5,027$6,222$3,793$4,528$4,365$5,099$4,377$5,224$5,908$6,536$5,008$5,441q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 209 209 209 209 - - 144 144 144 144209 209 144 144r. Increased CO2Emissions (Mega tonnes)- - 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0- - 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.42.0 2.0 1.4 1.4

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix D 

# D-9

NO X 

# COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NO X 

# STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Co sts (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 23 24 25 26 27 28 63 64 65 66 67 68

NOx Stringency Option NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High

MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0. 0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes

D. Summary of Cost Impacts

D-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $)

Non-recurrin g

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $53 $145 $53 $145 $53 $145 $53 $145 $53 $145 $53 $145

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $802 $3,730 $802 $3,730 $872 $4,430 $802 $3,730 $802 $3,730 $872 $4,430

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16 $16

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $2,675 $2,675 $2, 675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2 ,056

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $12,901 $12, 901 $12,901 $12,901 $0 $0 $9,981 $9,981 $9,981 $9,981

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $4,001 $4,001 $4,001 $4,001 $0 $0 $3,207 $3,207 $3,207 $3,207

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $5,069 $5,069 $5, 069 $5,069 $5,069 $5,069 $5,968 $5,968 $5,968 $5,968 $5,968 $5, 968

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $9,086 $9,086 $25,988 $25,988 $25,988 $25,988 $9, 234 $9,234 $22,422 $22,422 $22, 422 $22,422

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 11 11 11 11 11 11 16 16 16 16 16 16

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $82 $174 $82 $174 $82 $174 $84 $176 $84 $176 $84 $176

p. Large Engines $12,787 $15,715 $29,690 $32,618 $29,760 $33,318 $14,781 $17,709 $27,969 $30,897 $28,039 $31,597

GRAND TOTAL $12,869 $15,889 $29,772 $32,792 $29,842 $33,492 $14,865 $17,885 $28,053 $31,073 $28,123 $31,773

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 4,300 4,300 4,300 4,300 - - 3,327 3,327 3,327 3,327

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 - - 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9

D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Non-recurring

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $51 $137 $51 $137 $51 $137 $45 $122 $45 $122 $45 $122

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $768 $3,569 $768 $3,569 $835 $4,239 $682 $3,171 $682 $3,171 $741 $3,766

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $846 $846 $846 $846 $846 $846 $725 $725 $725 $725 $725 $725

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $1,512 $1,512 $1, 512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1 ,121

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $7,283 $7, 283 $7,283 $7,283 $0 $0 $5,438 $5,438 $5,438 $5,438

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $2,224 $2,224 $2,224 $2,224 $0 $0 $1,723 $1,723 $1,723 $1,723

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $4,328 $4,328 $4, 328 $4,328 $4,328 $4,328 $4,538 $4,538 $4,538 $4,538 $4,538 $4, 538

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $6,685 $6,685 $16,192 $16,192 $16,192 $16,192 $6, 384 $6,384 $13,544 $13,544 $13, 544 $13,544

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $71 $157 $71 $157 $71 $157 $66 $143 $66 $143 $66 $143

p. Large Engines $10,029 $12,831 $19,536 $22,337 $19,603 $23,007 $10,811 $13,300 $17,972 $20,461 $18,032 $21,056

GRAND TOTAL $10,100 $12,988 $19,607 $22,495 $19,674 $23,165 $10,878 $13,443 $18,038 $20,604 $18,098 $21,199

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 2,428 2,428 2,428 2,428 - - 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813

r. Increased CO

2 

# Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 - - 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix D 

# D-10

NO X 

# COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NO X 

# STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Co sts (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 23 24 25 26 27 28 63 64 65 66 67 68

NOx Stringency Option NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08 NS08

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High

MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0. 5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0. 5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes

D-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%

Non-recurrin g

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $48 $127 $48 $127 $48 $127 $36 $97 $36 $97 $36 $97

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $726 $3,377 $726 $3,377 $790 $4,011 $554 $2,576 $554 $2,576 $603 $3,060

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $495 $495 $495 $495 $495 $495 $391 $391 $391 $391 $391 $391

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $758 $758 $758 $758 $758 $758 $529 $529 $529 $529 $529 $529

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $3,644 $3, 644 $3,644 $3,644 $0 $0 $2,567 $2,567 $2,567 $2,567

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $1,088 $1,088 $1,088 $1,088 $0 $0 $796 $796 $796 $796

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,539 $3,539 $3, 539 $3,539 $3,539 $3,539 $3,196 $3,196 $3,196 $3,196 $3,196 $3, 196

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,792 $4,792 $9,523 $9,523 $9,523 $9,523 $4,116 $4,116 $7,478 $7,478 $7,478 $7 ,478

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $62 $141 $62 $141 $62 $141 $50 $111 $50 $111 $50 $111

p. Large Engines $7,730 $10,381 $12,462 $15,112 $12,525 $15,747 $7,432 $9,454 $10,794 $12,816 $10,843 $13,300

GRAND TOTAL $7,792 $10,522 $12,524 $15,254 $12,587 $15,888 $7,482 $9,565 $10,844 $12,927 $10,893 $13,411

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 - - 856 856 856 856

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 - - 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2

D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

Non-recurring

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $46 $123 $46 $123 $46 $123 $33 $87 $33 $87 $33 $87

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $708 $3,290 $708 $3,290 $770 $3,908 $501 $2,330 $501 $2,330 $545 $2,768

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $294 $294 $294 $294 $294 $294

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $552 $552 $552 $552 $552 $552 $373 $373 $373 $373 $373 $373

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $2,653 $2, 653 $2,653 $2,653 $0 $0 $1,806 $1,806 $1,806 $1,806

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $783 $783 $783 $783 $0 $0 $554 $554 $554 $554

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,213 $3,213 $3, 213 $3,213 $3,213 $3,213 $2,698 $2,698 $2,698 $2,698 $2,698 $2, 698

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,155 $4,155 $7,591 $7,591 $7,591 $7,591 $3,365 $3,365 $5,725 $5,725 $5,725 $5 ,725

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $58 $135 $58 $135 $58 $135 $44 $98 $44 $98 $44 $98

p. Large Engines $6,917 $9,499 $10,353 $12,935 $10,415 $13,553 $6,248 $8,077 $8,608 $10,437 $8,651 $10,874

GRAND TOTAL $6,975 $9,634 $10,411 $13,070 $10,473 $13,688 $6,292 $8,175 $8,652 $10,535 $8,695 $10,973

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 884 884 884 884 - - 602 602 602 602

r. Increased CO

2 

# Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 - - 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix D 

# D-11

NO X 

# COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NO X 

# STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Co sts (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 29 30 31 32 33 34 69 70 71 72 73 74

NOx Stringency Option NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High

MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0. 5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0. 5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes

D. Summary of Cost Impacts

D-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $)

Non-recurrin g

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $201 $415 $201 $415 $201 $415 $201 $415 $201 $415 $201 $415

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $802 $3,730 $802 $3,730 $872 $4,430 $802 $3,730 $802 $3,730 $872 $4,430

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $23 $23 $23 $23 $23 $23 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $39 $39 $39 $39 $39 $39 $32 $32 $32 $32 $32 $32

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $62 $62 $62 $62 $62 $62 $53 $53 $53 $53 $53 $53

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $2,675 $2,675 $2, 675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2 ,056

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $12,901 $12, 901 $12,901 $12,901 $0 $0 $9,981 $9,981 $9,981 $9,981

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $4,001 $4,001 $4,001 $4,001 $0 $0 $3,207 $3,207 $3,207 $3,207

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $5,071 $5,071 $5, 071 $5,071 $5,071 $5,071 $5,970 $5,970 $5,970 $5,970 $5,970 $5, 970

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $9,088 $9,088 $25,990 $25,990 $25,990 $25,990 $9, 236 $9,236 $22,424 $22,424 $22, 424 $22,424

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 43 43 43 43 43 43 63 63 63 63 63 63

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $305 $519 $305 $519 $305 $519 $317 $531 $317 $531 $317 $531

p. Large Engines $12,789 $15,717 $29,691 $32,619 $29,761 $33,319 $14,783 $17,711 $27,971 $30,899 $28,041 $31,599

GRAND TOTAL $13,094 $16,236 $29,997 $33,139 $30,067 $33,839 $15,100 $18,242 $28,288 $31,430 $28,358 $32,130

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 4,300 4,300 4,300 4,300 - - 3,327 3,327 3,327 3,327

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 - - 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9

D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Non-recurring

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $192 $397 $192 $397 $192 $397 $171 $352 $171 $352 $171 $352

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $768 $3,569 $768 $3,569 $835 $4,239 $682 $3,171 $682 $3,171 $741 $3,766

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $36 $36 $36 $36 $36 $36 $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 $30

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $846 $846 $846 $846 $846 $846 $725 $725 $725 $725 $725 $725

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $1,512 $1,512 $1, 512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1 ,121

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $7,283 $7, 283 $7,283 $7,283 $0 $0 $5,438 $5,438 $5,438 $5,438

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $2,224 $2,224 $2,224 $2,224 $0 $0 $1,723 $1,723 $1,723 $1,723

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $4,329 $4,329 $4, 329 $4,329 $4,329 $4,329 $4,540 $4,540 $4,540 $4,540 $4,540 $4, 540

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $6,687 $6,687 $16,194 $16,194 $16,194 $16,194 $6, 385 $6,385 $13,546 $13,546 $13, 546 $13,546

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 38 38 38 38 38 38 50 50 50 50 50 50

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $266 $471 $266 $471 $266 $471 $251 $432 $251 $432 $251 $432

p. Large Engines $10,031 $12,832 $19,537 $22,339 $19,604 $23,009 $10,813 $13,302 $17,974 $20,463 $18,033 $21,058

GRAND TOTAL $10,297 $13,303 $19,804 $22,809 $19,871 $23,479 $11,064 $13,734 $18,224 $20,895 $18,284 $21,490

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 2,428 2,428 2,428 2,428 - - 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813

r. Increased CO

2 

# Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 - - 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix D 

# D-12

NO X 

# COST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NO X 

# STRINGENCY

Summary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time Horizon

Section D-1 Presents Cumulative Costs (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)

Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at 3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates

Model Run 29 30 31 32 33 34 69 70 71 72 73 74

NOx Stringency Option NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09 NS09

Stringency Year 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016

MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High

MS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0. 0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included No No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes

D-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%

Non-recurrin g

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $182 $375 $182 $375 $182 $375 $139 $286 $139 $286 $139 $286

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $726 $3,377 $726 $3,377 $790 $4,011 $554 $2,576 $554 $2,576 $603 $3,060

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $495 $495 $495 $495 $495 $495 $391 $391 $391 $391 $391 $391

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $758 $758 $758 $758 $758 $758 $529 $529 $529 $529 $529 $529

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $3,644 $3, 644 $3,644 $3,644 $0 $0 $2,567 $2,567 $2,567 $2,567

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $1,088 $1,088 $1,088 $1,088 $0 $0 $796 $796 $796 $796

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,540 $3,540 $3, 540 $3,540 $3,540 $3,540 $3,197 $3,197 $3,197 $3,197 $3,197 $3, 197

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,793 $4,793 $9,524 $9,524 $9,524 $9,524 $4,117 $4,117 $7,480 $7,480 $7,480 $7 ,480

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 33 33 33 33 33 33 37 37 37 37 37 37

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762 2,762

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $234 $426 $234 $426 $234 $426 $191 $338 $191 $338 $191 $338

p. Large Engines $7,731 $10,382 $12,463 $15,113 $12,526 $15,748 $7,433 $9,455 $10,795 $12,818 $10,844 $13,301

GRAND TOTAL $7,965 $10,808 $12,697 $15,540 $12,760 $16,174 $7,624 $9,793 $10,986 $13,155 $11,034 $13,639

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 - - 856 856 856 856

r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 - - 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2

D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @ 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

Non-recurring

a. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $177 $365 $177 $365 $177 $365 $126 $258 $126 $258 $126 $258

b. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Large Engines $708 $3,290 $708 $3,290 $770 $3,908 $501 $2,330 $501 $2,330 $545 $2,768

Recurring

Small Engines

c. Incremental Engine Production Cost $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5

d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6

e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11

Large Engines

h. Incremental Engine Production Cost $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $294 $294 $294 $294 $294 $294

i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $552 $552 $552 $552 $552 $552 $373 $373 $373 $373 $373 $373

j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $2,653 $2, 653 $2,653 $2,653 $0 $0 $1,806 $1,806 $1,806 $1,806

k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $783 $783 $783 $783 $0 $0 $554 $554 $554 $554

l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,214 $3,214 $3, 214 $3,214 $3,214 $3,214 $2,699 $2,699 $2,699 $2,699 $2,699 $2, 699

Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,156 $4,156 $7,592 $7,592 $7,592 $7,592 $3,366 $3,366 $5,726 $5,726 $5,726 $5 ,726

m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 32 32 32 32 32

n. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Large Engines 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,381

GRAND TOTAL

o. Small Engines $222 $409 $222 $409 $222 $409 $168 $301 $168 $301 $168 $301

p. Large Engines $6,918 $9,500 $10,354 $12,936 $10,416 $13,554 $6,248 $8,077 $8,608 $10,438 $8,652 $10,875

GRAND TOTAL $7,140 $9,909 $10,576 $13,345 $10,638 $13,963 $6,417 $8,378 $8,777 $10,738 $8,820 $11,176

q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 884 884 884 884 - - 602 602 602 602

r. Increased CO

2 

# Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 - - 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix DD-13NOXCOST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOXSTRINGENCYSummary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time HorizonFuel Price SensitivitySection D-1 Presents CumulativeCosts (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)40 40 80 80Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value ofCosts at 3%, 7% and9% Discount Rates($4.50)($4.50)($4.50)($4.50)Model Run 35 36 37 38 39 40 75 76 77 78 78 80 85 86 74 88NOx Stringency OptionNS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10Stringency Year2012201220122012201220122016201620162016201620162012201220162016MS Non-RecurringCost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High High High High HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurringfor Noise Included No No No NoYes Yes No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesD. Summary of Cost ImpactsD-1. Current Dollar Impacts (Million $)Non-recurringa. Non-RecurringE&D Cost - Small Engines $202 $430 $202 $430 $202 $430 $202 $430 $202 $430 $202 $430 $430 $430 $430 $430b. Non-RecurringE&D Cost - Large Engines $802 $3,730 $802 $3,730 $872 $4,430 $802 $3,730 $802 $3,730 $872 $4,430$4,430 $4,430 $4,430 $4,430RecurringSmall Enginesc. Incremental Engine Production Cost $23 $23 $23 $23 $23 $23 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $21 $23 $23 $21 $21d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $39 $39 $39 $39 $39 $39 $32 $32 $32 $32 $32 $32 $39 $39 $32 $32e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $62 $62 $62 $62 $62 $62 $53 $53 $53 $53 $53 $53 $62 $62 $53 $53Large Enginesh. Incremental Engine Production Cost $1,342$1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,342 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210 $1,210$1,210 $1,210 $1,342 $1,342 $1,210 $1,210i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,675 $2,056$2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,056 $2,675 $2,675 $2,056 $2,056j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $12,901 $12,901 $12,901 $12,901 $0 $0 $9,981 $9,981$9,981 $9,981 $6,451 $19,352 $4,990 $14,971k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $4,001 $4,001 $4,001 $4,001 $0 $0$3,207 $3,207 $3,207 $3,207$4,001 $4,001 $3,207 $3,207l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $5,075 $5,075 $5,075 $5,075$5,075 $5,075 $5,976 $5,976 $5,976 $5,976 $5,976 $5,976$5,075 $5,075 $5,976 $5,976Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $9,092 $9,092 $25,995 $25,995 $25,995 $25,995 $9,242 $9,242 $22,430 $22,430 $22,430 $22,430 $19,544 $32,445 $17,440 $27,420m. Lost Value in ExistingFleets - Small Engines 43 43 43 43 43 43 63 63 63 63 63 63 43 43 63 63n. Lost Value in ExistingFleets - Large Engines 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 4,745 2,9002,900 4,745 4,745GRAND TOTALo. Small Engines$306$534$306$534$306$534$318$546$318$546$318$546$534$534$546$546p. Large Engines$12,794$15,722$29,696$32,624$29,766$33,324$14,789$17,717$27,977$30,905$28,047$31,605$26,873$39,775$26,615$36,595GRAND TOTAL$13,100$16,256$30,002$33,158$30,072$33,858$15,107$18,263$28,295$31,451$28,365$32,151$27,408$40,309$27,160$37,141q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil.gals.) - - 4,300 4,300 4,300 4,300 - - 3,327 3,327 3,327 3,3274,300 4,300 3,327 3,327r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 - -31.9 31.9 31.9 31.941.2 41.2 31.9 31.9D-2. 2009 Present Value Impacts @3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%Non-recurringGrand Totala. Non-RecurringE&D Cost - Small Engines $193 $410 $193 $410 $193 $410 $172 $365 $172 $365 $172 $365 $410 $410 $365 $365b. Non-RecurringE&D Cost - Large Engines $768 $3,569 $768 $3,569 $835 $4,239 $682 $3,171 $682 $3,171 $741 $3,766$4,239 $4,239 $3,766 $3,766RecurringSmall Enginesc. Incremental Engine Production Cost $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $12 $14 $14 $12 $12d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $18 $22 $22 $18 $18e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines $36 $36 $36 $36 $36 $36 $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 $30 $36 $36 $30 $30Large Enginesh. Incremental Engine Production Cost $846 $846 $846 $846 $846 $846 $725 $725 $725 $725 $725 $725 $846 $846 $725 $725i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,512 $1,121$1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,121 $1,512 $1,512 $1,121 $1,121j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $7,283 $7,283$7,283 $7,283 $0 $0 $5,438 $5,438 $5,438 $5,438 $3,642 $10,925 $2,719 $8,157k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $2,224 $2,224 $2,224 $2,224 $0 $0$1,723 $1,723 $1,723 $1,723$2,224 $2,224 $1,723 $1,723l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $4,333 $4,333 $4,333 $4,333$4,333 $4,333 $4,544 $4,544 $4,544 $4,544 $4,544 $4,544$4,333 $4,333 $4,544 $4,544Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $6,691 $6,691 $16,198 $16,198 $16,198 $16,198 $6,390 $6,390 $13,551 $13,551 $13,551 $13,551 $12,556 $19,839 $10,832 $16,270m. LostValue in ExistingFleets - Small Engines 38 38 38 38 38 38 50 50 50 50 50 50 38 38 50 50n. Lost Value in ExistingFleets - Large Engines 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 2,576 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 2,5762,576 3,746 3,746GRAND TOTALo. Small Engines$267$484$267$484$267$484$251$444$251$444$251$444$484$484$444$444p. Large Engines$10,035$12,836$19,541$22,343$19,608$23,013$10,818$13,307$17,978$20,467$18,038$21,063$19,371$26,654$18,344$23,782GRAND TOTAL$10,302$13,320$19,809$22,827$19,876$23,497$11,069$13,751$18,230$20,912$18,289$21,507$19,856$27,139$18,788$24,226q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil.gals.) - - 2,428 2,428 2,428 2,428 - - 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,8132,428 2,428 1,813 1,813r. Increased CO2Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 - -17.4 17.4 17.4 17.423.3 23.3 17.4 17.4CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix DD-14NOXCOST SPREADSHEET MODEL RESULTS FOR CAEP/8 NOXSTRINGENCYSummary of Costs Over 2009 - 2036 Time HorizonFuel Price SensitivitySection D-1 Presents CumulativeCosts (Millions of 2009 U.S. Dollars)40 40 80 80Sections D-2 through D-4 Present Value of Costs at3%, 7% and 9% Discount Rates($4.50)($4.50)($4.50)($4.50)Model Run 35 36 37 38 39 40 75 76 77 78 79 80 85 86 87 88NOx Stringency OptionNS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10Stringency Year2012201220122012201220122016201620162016201620162012201220162016MS Non-RecurringCost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High High High High HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurringfor Noise Included No NoNo No Yes Yes No No NoNo Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesD-3. 2009 Present Value Impacts @7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%Non-recurringGrand Totala. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $183 $387 $183 $387 $183 $387 $139 $295 $139 $295 $139 $295$387 $387 $295 $295b. Non-RecurringE&D Cost - Large Engines $726 $3,377 $726 $3,377 $790$4,011 $554 $2,576 $554 $2,576 $603 $3,060$4,011 $4,011 $3,060 $3,060RecurringSmall Enginesc. Incremental Engine Production Cost $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7$8 $8 $7 $7d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8$11 $11 $8 $8e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0$0 $0 $0 $0f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0$0 $0 $0 $0g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0$0 $0 $0 $0Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines$19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $19 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15$19 $19 $15 $15Large Enginesh. Incremental Engine Production Cost $495 $495 $495 $495 $495 $495 $391 $391 $391 $391 $391 $391$495 $495 $391 $391i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $758 $758 $758 $758 $758 $758 $529 $529 $529 $529 $529 $529$758 $758 $529 $529j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $3,644 $3,644 $3,644 $3,644 $0 $0$2,567 $2,567 $2,567 $2,567$1,822 $5,466 $1,283 $3,850k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0$0 $1,088 $1,088 $1,088 $1,088 $0 $0 $796 $796 $796 $796$1,088 $1,088 $796 $796l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,544 $3,544 $3,544 $3,544 $3,544 $3,544 $3,200$3,200 $3,200 $3,200 $3,200 $3,200$3,544 $3,544 $3,200 $3,200Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,796 $4,796 $9,528 $9,528 $9,528$9,528 $4,121 $4,121 $7,483$7,483 $7,483 $7,483$7,706 $11,350 $6,200 $8,766m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 33 33 33 33 33 33 37 37 37 37 37 3733 33 37 37n. Lost Value in ExistingFleets - Large Engines 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,212 2,2122,212 2,762 2,762 2,7622,762 2,762 2,7622,212 2,212 2,762 2,762GRAND TOTALo. Small Engines$235$439$235$439$235$439$191$347$191$347$191$347$439$439$347$347p. Large Engines$7,735$10,385$12,466$15,117$12,530$15,751$7,436$9,458$10,799$12,821$10,847$13,305$13,929$17,573$12,021$14,588GRAND TOTAL $7,969$10,824$12,701$15,555$12,764$16,190$7,628$9,805$10,990$13,168$11,038$13,652$14,368$18,011$12,368$14,935q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil.gals.) - - 1,215 1,215 1,215 1,215 - - 856 856 856 856 1,215 1,215 856 856r. Increased CO2 Emissions (Mega tonnes) - - 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 - - 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.211.6 11.6 8.2 8.2D-4. 2009 Present Value Impacts @9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%Non-recurringGrand Totala. Non-Recurring E&D Cost - Small Engines $178 $376 $178 $376 $178 $376 $126 $267 $126 $267 $126 $267$376 $376 $267 $267b. Non-RecurringE&D Cost - Large Engines $708 $3,290 $708 $3,290 $770$3,908 $501 $2,330 $501 $2,330 $545 $2,768$3,908 $3,908 $2,768 $2,768RecurringSmall Enginesc. Incremental Engine Production Cost $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5$7 $7 $5 $5d. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $8 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6$8 $8 $6 $6e. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0$0 $0 $0 $0f. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0$0 $0 $0 $0g. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0$0 $0 $0 $0Subtotal - Recurring, Small Engines$14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $14 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11 $11$14 $14 $11 $11Large Enginesh. Incremental Engine Production Cost $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $294 $294 $294 $294 $294 $294$390 $390 $294 $294i. Annual Maintenance Cost Increase $552 $552 $552 $552 $552 $552 $373 $373 $373 $373 $373 $373$552 $552 $373 $373j. Annual Fuel Cost Increase $0 $0 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $0 $0$1,806 $1,806 $1,806 $1,806$1,326 $3,979 $903 $2,710k. Annual Loss Revenue (MTOW limited flights) $0 $0 $783 $783 $783 $783 $0 $0 $554 $554 $554 $554$783 $783 $554 $554l. Cost in Additional Spare Engines $3,217 $3,217 $3,217 $3,217 $3,217 $3,217 $2,701$2,701 $2,701 $2,701 $2,701 $2,701$3,217 $3,217 $2,701 $2,701Subtotal - Recurring, Large Engines $4,159 $4,159 $7,595 $7,595 $7,595$7,595 $3,368 $3,368 $5,728$5,728 $5,728 $5,728$6,269 $8,921 $4,825 $6,632m. Lost Value in Existing Fleets - Small Engines 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 32 32 32 32 3230 30 32 32n. Lost Value in ExistingFleets - Large Engines 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,054 2,0542,054 2,381 2,381 2,3812,381 2,381 2,3812,054 2,054 2,381 2,381GRAND TOTALo. Small Engines$223$421$223$421$223$421$169$309$169$309$169$309$421$421$309$309p. Large Engines$6,921$9,503$10,357$12,939$10,419$13,557$6,251$8,080$8,611$10,440$8,655$10,878$12,230$14,883$9,975$11,781GRAND TOTAL $7,144$9,924$10,580$13,360$10,641$13,978$6,420$8,389$8,780$10,749$8,824$11,187$12,651$15,304$10,284$12,090q. Increase in Fuel Consumption (mil. gals.) - - 884 884 884 884 - - 602 602 602 602884 884 602 602r. Increased CO2Emissions (Mega tonnes)- - 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5- - 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.88.5 8.5 5.8 5.8CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix EAPPENDIX ECAEP/8 NOXStringency Analysis – Review of BenefitsGlobal Fleet LTO NOXResults from MODTFSmall EnginesUnits = Mega tonnes (Mt)ICAO Default TIM - NOx2012 Stringency Implementation 2016 Stringency ImplementationBaseline NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10 NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS1020060.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029240.029242007 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.03022 0.030222008 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.03119 0.031192009 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.03217 0.032172010 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.03314 0.033142011 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.03412 0.0341220120.035090.035090.035090.035090.035090.035090.035090.035090.035090.035090.035090.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.03509 0.035092013 0.03609 0.03608 0.03608 0.03608 0.03608 0.03607 0.03608 0.03607 0.03605 0.03604 0.03604 0.03609 0.03609 0.03609 0.03609 0.03609 0.03609 0.03609 0.03609 0.03609 0.036092014 0.03708 0.03707 0.03706 0.03706 0.03707 0.03705 0.03707 0.03705 0.03701 0.03700 0.03699 0.03708 0.03708 0.03708 0.03708 0.03708 0.03708 0.03708 0.03708 0.03708 0.037082015 0.03807 0.03806 0.03805 0.03805 0.03806 0.03804 0.03806 0.03804 0.03797 0.03795 0.03794 0.03807 0.03807 0.03807 0.03807 0.03807 0.03807 0.03807 0.03807 0.03807 0.0380720160.039070.039040.039030.039030.039040.039020.039040.039020.038930.038900.038890.039070.039070.039070.039070.039070.039070.039070.039070.039070.039072017 0.04051 0.04047 0.04045 0.04045 0.04047 0.04043 0.04047 0.04043 0.04033 0.04028 0.04027 0.04050 0.04049 0.04049 0.04050 0.04049 0.04050 0.04049 0.04047 0.04045 0.040452018 0.04195 0.04190 0.04187 0.04187 0.04190 0.04185 0.04190 0.04185 0.04173 0.04167 0.04165 0.04192 0.04191 0.04191 0.04192 0.04190 0.04192 0.04190 0.04187 0.04184 0.041832019 0.04339 0.04333 0.04329 0.04329 0.04333 0.04327 0.04333 0.04327 0.04313 0.04305 0.04304 0.04335 0.04333 0.04333 0.04335 0.04332 0.04335 0.04332 0.04327 0.04322 0.043212020 0.04483 0.04475 0.04472 0.04472 0.04475 0.04468 0.04475 0.04468 0.04452 0.04444 0.04442 0.04478 0.04475 0.04475 0.04478 0.04473 0.04478 0.04473 0.04466 0.04461 0.044592021 0.04627 0.04618 0.04614 0.04614 0.04618 0.04610 0.04618 0.04610 0.04592 0.04582 0.04580 0.04621 0.04618 0.04618 0.04621 0.04615 0.04621 0.04615 0.04606 0.04599 0.045982022 0.04771 0.04761 0.04756 0.04756 0.04761 0.04751 0.04761 0.04751 0.04732 0.04721 0.04718 0.04764 0.04760 0.04760 0.04764 0.04756 0.04764 0.04756 0.04746 0.04738 0.047362023 0.04914 0.04904 0.04898 0.04898 0.04904 0.04893 0.04904 0.04893 0.04872 0.04859 0.04856 0.04906 0.04902 0.04902 0.04906 0.04898 0.04906 0.04898 0.04886 0.04876 0.048742024 0.05058 0.05047 0.05040 0.05040 0.05047 0.05034 0.05047 0.05034 0.05012 0.04998 0.04994 0.05049 0.05044 0.05044 0.05049 0.05039 0.05049 0.05039 0.05026 0.05015 0.050122025 0.05202 0.05189 0.05182 0.05182 0.05189 0.05176 0.05189 0.05176 0.05152 0.05136 0.05132 0.05192 0.05186 0.05186 0.05192 0.05181 0.05192 0.05181 0.05166 0.05153 0.0515020260.053460.053320.053240.053240.053320.053180.053320.053180.052920.052750.052700.053350.053280.053280.053350.053230.053350.053230.053060.052920.052882027 0.05556 0.05540 0.05531 0.05531 0.05540 0.05524 0.05540 0.05524 0.05496 0.05477 0.05473 0.05542 0.05535 0.05535 0.05542 0.05529 0.05542 0.05529 0.05510 0.05494 0.054902028 0.05765 0.05748 0.05738 0.05738 0.05748 0.05730 0.05748 0.05730 0.05700 0.05680 0.05675 0.05750 0.05742 0.05742 0.05750 0.05735 0.05750 0.05735 0.05714 0.05697 0.056922029 0.05975 0.05956 0.05946 0.05946 0.05956 0.05937 0.05956 0.05937 0.05905 0.05882 0.05877 0.05958 0.05949 0.05949 0.05958 0.05942 0.05958 0.05942 0.05919 0.05899 0.058942030 0.06184 0.06164 0.06153 0.06153 0.06164 0.06143 0.06164 0.06143 0.06109 0.06085 0.06079 0.06166 0.06156 0.06156 0.06166 0.06148 0.06166 0.06148 0.06123 0.06102 0.060972031 0.06393 0.06372 0.06360 0.06360 0.06372 0.06350 0.06372 0.06350 0.06313 0.06287 0.06281 0.06374 0.06364 0.06364 0.06374 0.06355 0.06374 0.06355 0.06327 0.06304 0.062992032 0.06603 0.06580 0.06567 0.06567 0.06580 0.06556 0.06580 0.06556 0.06518 0.06490 0.06483 0.06582 0.06571 0.06571 0.06582 0.06561 0.06582 0.06561 0.06532 0.06507 0.065012033 0.06812 0.06788 0.06774 0.06774 0.06788 0.06762 0.06788 0.06762 0.06722 0.06692 0.06685 0.06790 0.06778 0.06778 0.06790 0.06767 0.06790 0.06767 0.06736 0.06709 0.067032034 0.07022 0.06996 0.06981 0.06981 0.06996 0.06969 0.06996 0.06969 0.06926 0.06895 0.06887 0.06998 0.06985 0.06985 0.06998 0.06974 0.06998 0.06974 0.06940 0.06912 0.069052035 0.07231 0.07203 0.07188 0.07188 0.07203 0.07175 0.07203 0.07175 0.07131 0.07098 0.07089 0.07206 0.07192 0.07192 0.07206 0.07180 0.07206 0.07180 0.07145 0.07115 0.0710720360.074410.074110.073950.073950.074110.073820.074110.073820.073350.073000.072910.074140.073990.073990.074140.073870.074140.073870.073490.073170.07309Large EnginesUnits = Mega tonnes (Mt)ICAO Default TIM - NOx2012 Stringency Implementation 2016 Stringency ImplementationBaseline NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10 NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS1020060.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261300.261302007 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.27784 0.277842008 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.29439 0.294392009 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.31094 0.310942010 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.32748 0.327482011 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.34403 0.3440320120.360570.360570.360570.360570.360570.360570.360570.360570.360570.360570.360570.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.36057 0.360572013 0.37704 0.37546 0.37546 0.37529 0.37519 0.37519 0.37493 0.37493 0.37425 0.37425 0.37425 0.37704 0.37704 0.37704 0.37704 0.37704 0.37704 0.37704 0.37704 0.37704 0.377042014 0.39350 0.39035 0.39035 0.39001 0.38981 0.38981 0.38929 0.38929 0.38792 0.38792 0.38792 0.39350 0.39350 0.39350 0.39350 0.39350 0.39350 0.39350 0.39350 0.39350 0.393502015 0.40997 0.40525 0.40525 0.40472 0.40442 0.40442 0.40364 0.40364 0.40159 0.40159 0.40159 0.40997 0.40997 0.40997 0.40997 0.40997 0.40997 0.40997 0.40997 0.40997 0.4099720160.426430.420140.420140.419440.419040.419040.418000.418000.415260.415260.415260.426430.426430.426430.426430.426430.426430.426430.426430.426430.426432017 0.45182 0.44327 0.44327 0.44228 0.44171 0.44171 0.44022 0.44022 0.43645 0.43645 0.43645 0.44956 0.44956 0.44926 0.44910 0.44910 0.44865 0.44865 0.44761 0.44761 0.447612018 0.47720 0.46639 0.46639 0.46511 0.46438 0.46438 0.46244 0.46244 0.45764 0.45764 0.45764 0.47268 0.47268 0.47210 0.47176 0.47176 0.47086 0.47086 0.46878 0.46878 0.468782019 0.50258 0.48952 0.48952 0.48795 0.48705 0.48705 0.48466 0.48466 0.47882 0.47882 0.47882 0.49580 0.49580 0.49493 0.49442 0.49442 0.49307 0.49307 0.48996 0.48996 0.489962020 0.52796 0.51265 0.51265 0.51079 0.50972 0.50972 0.50688 0.50688 0.50001 0.50001 0.50001 0.51893 0.51893 0.51776 0.51709 0.51709 0.51528 0.51528 0.51114 0.51114 0.511142021 0.55334 0.53578 0.53578 0.53363 0.53239 0.53239 0.52910 0.52910 0.52119 0.52119 0.52119 0.54205 0.54205 0.54059 0.53975 0.53975 0.53749 0.53749 0.53231 0.53231 0.532312022 0.57873 0.55891 0.55891 0.55646 0.55506 0.55506 0.55132 0.55132 0.54238 0.54238 0.54238 0.56518 0.56518 0.56342 0.56241 0.56241 0.55971 0.55971 0.55349 0.55349 0.553492023 0.60411 0.58204 0.58204 0.57930 0.57773 0.57773 0.57354 0.57354 0.56357 0.56357 0.56357 0.58830 0.58830 0.58625 0.58507 0.58507 0.58192 0.58192 0.57466 0.57466 0.574662024 0.62949 0.60517 0.60517 0.60214 0.60040 0.60040 0.59576 0.59576 0.58475 0.58475 0.58475 0.61142 0.61142 0.60908 0.60774 0.60774 0.60413 0.60413 0.59584 0.59584 0.595842025 0.65487 0.62830 0.62830 0.62498 0.62307 0.62307 0.61798 0.61798 0.60594 0.60594 0.60594 0.63455 0.63455 0.63191 0.63040 0.63040 0.62634 0.62634 0.61701 0.61701 0.6170120260.680250.651430.651430.647810.645740.645740.640200.640200.627130.627130.627130.657670.657670.654740.653060.653060.648550.648550.638190.638190.638192027 0.72235 0.69050 0.69050 0.68643 0.68410 0.68410 0.67781 0.67781 0.66322 0.66322 0.66322 0.69674 0.69674 0.69336 0.69142 0.69142 0.68616 0.68616 0.67427 0.67427 0.674272028 0.76444 0.72958 0.72958 0.72505 0.72245 0.72245 0.71542 0.71542 0.69931 0.69931 0.69931 0.73581 0.73581 0.73197 0.72977 0.72977 0.72376 0.72376 0.71036 0.71036 0.710362029 0.80654 0.76865 0.76865 0.76367 0.76081 0.76081 0.75303 0.75303 0.73541 0.73541 0.73541 0.77488 0.77488 0.77059 0.76812 0.76812 0.76137 0.76137 0.74645 0.74645 0.746452030 0.84863 0.80772 0.80772 0.80229 0.79917 0.79917 0.79064 0.79064 0.77150 0.77150 0.77150 0.81396 0.81396 0.80921 0.80648 0.80648 0.79898 0.79898 0.78254 0.78254 0.782542031 0.89073 0.84680 0.84680 0.84091 0.83752 0.83752 0.82825 0.82825 0.80759 0.80759 0.80759 0.85303 0.85303 0.84782 0.84483 0.84483 0.83658 0.83658 0.81862 0.81862 0.818622032 0.93282 0.88587 0.88587 0.87952 0.87588 0.87588 0.86585 0.86585 0.84368 0.84368 0.84368 0.89210 0.89210 0.88644 0.88319 0.88319 0.87419 0.87419 0.85471 0.85471 0.854712033 0.97492 0.92495 0.92495 0.91814 0.91424 0.91424 0.90346 0.90346 0.87978 0.87978 0.87978 0.93117 0.93117 0.92505 0.92154 0.92154 0.91179 0.91179 0.89080 0.89080 0.890802034 1.01701 0.96402 0.96402 0.95676 0.95259 0.95259 0.94107 0.94107 0.91587 0.91587 0.91587 0.97024 0.97024 0.96367 0.95989 0.95989 0.94940 0.94940 0.92689 0.92689 0.926892035 1.05911 1.00309 1.00309 0.99538 0.99095 0.99095 0.97868 0.97868 0.95196 0.95196 0.95196 1.00931 1.00931 1.00229 0.99825 0.99825 0.98700 0.98700 0.96298 0.96298 0.9629820361.101201.042171.042171.034001.029311.029311.016291.016290.988050.988050.988051.048381.048381.040901.036601.036601.024611.024610.999060.999060.99906CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix EE-2CAEP/8 NOXStringency Analysis – Review of BenefitsReduction in Global Fleet LTO NOXfrom Baseline –Mega tonnes (Mt)Small Engines2012 Stringency Implementation 2016 Stringency ImplementationBaseline NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10 NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS1020060.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000002007 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002008 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002009 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002010 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002011 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0000020120.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002013 0.00000 -0.00001 -0.00001 -0.00001 -0.00001 -0.00001 -0.00001 -0.00001 -0.00003 -0.00004 -0.00004 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002014 0.00000 -0.00001 -0.00002 -0.00002 -0.00001 -0.00003 -0.00001 -0.00003 -0.00007 -0.00008 -0.00009 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002015 0.00000 -0.00002 -0.00003 -0.00003 -0.00002 -0.00004 -0.00002 -0.00004 -0.00010 -0.00013 -0.00013 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0000020160.00000-0.00002-0.00004-0.00004-0.00002-0.00005-0.00002-0.00005-0.00014-0.00017-0.000180.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000002017 0.00000 -0.00004 -0.00006 -0.00006 -0.00004 -0.00007 -0.00004 -0.00007 -0.00018 -0.00022 -0.00024 -0.00001 -0.00002 -0.00002 -0.00001 -0.00002 -0.00001 -0.00002 -0.00004 -0.00005 -0.000062018 0.00000 -0.00005 -0.00008 -0.00008 -0.00005 -0.00010 -0.00005 -0.00010 -0.00022 -0.00028 -0.00029 -0.00002 -0.00004 -0.00004 -0.00002 -0.00005 -0.00002 -0.00005 -0.00008 -0.00011 -0.000122019 0.00000 -0.00006 -0.00009 -0.00009 -0.00006 -0.00012 -0.00006 -0.00012 -0.00026 -0.00033 -0.00035 -0.00004 -0.00005 -0.00005 -0.00004 -0.00007 -0.00004 -0.00007 -0.00012 -0.00016 -0.000172020 0.00000 -0.00007 -0.00011 -0.00011 -0.00007 -0.00014 -0.00007 -0.00014 -0.00030 -0.00039 -0.00041 -0.00005 -0.00007 -0.00007 -0.00005 -0.00009 -0.00005 -0.00009 -0.00016 -0.00022 -0.000232021 0.00000 -0.00008 -0.00013 -0.00013 -0.00008 -0.00017 -0.00008 -0.00017 -0.00034 -0.00044 -0.00047 -0.00006 -0.00009 -0.00009 -0.00006 -0.00012 -0.00006 -0.00012 -0.00020 -0.00027 -0.000292022 0.00000 -0.00010 -0.00015 -0.00015 -0.00010 -0.00019 -0.00010 -0.00019 -0.00038 -0.00050 -0.00053 -0.00007 -0.00011 -0.00011 -0.00007 -0.00014 -0.00007 -0.00014 -0.00024 -0.00033 -0.000352023 0.00000 -0.00011 -0.00017 -0.00017 -0.00011 -0.00022 -0.00011 -0.00022 -0.00042 -0.00055 -0.00058 -0.00008 -0.00013 -0.00013 -0.00008 -0.00017 -0.00008 -0.00017 -0.00028 -0.00038 -0.000412024 0.00000 -0.00012 -0.00018 -0.00018 -0.00012 -0.00024 -0.00012 -0.00024 -0.00046 -0.00061 -0.00064 -0.00009 -0.00015 -0.00015 -0.00009 -0.00019 -0.00009 -0.00019 -0.00033 -0.00044 -0.000462025 0.00000 -0.00013 -0.00020 -0.00020 -0.00013 -0.00026 -0.00013 -0.00026 -0.00051 -0.00066 -0.00070 -0.00011 -0.00016 -0.00016 -0.00011 -0.00021 -0.00011 -0.00021 -0.00037 -0.00049 -0.0005220260.00000-0.00014-0.00022-0.00022-0.00014-0.00029-0.00014-0.00029-0.00055-0.00072-0.00076-0.00012-0.00018-0.00018-0.00012-0.00024-0.00012-0.00024-0.00041-0.00055-0.000582027 0.00000 -0.00016 -0.00024 -0.00024 -0.00016 -0.00032 -0.00016 -0.00032 -0.00060 -0.00078 -0.00083 -0.00013 -0.00020 -0.00020 -0.00013 -0.00027 -0.00013 -0.00027 -0.00046 -0.00062 -0.000652028 0.00000 -0.00017 -0.00027 -0.00027 -0.00017 -0.00035 -0.00017 -0.00035 -0.00065 -0.00085 -0.00090 -0.00015 -0.00023 -0.00023 -0.00015 -0.00030 -0.00015 -0.00030 -0.00051 -0.00068 -0.000732029 0.00000 -0.00019 -0.00029 -0.00029 -0.00019 -0.00038 -0.00019 -0.00038 -0.00070 -0.00092 -0.00098 -0.00016 -0.00025 -0.00025 -0.00016 -0.00033 -0.00016 -0.00033 -0.00056 -0.00075 -0.000802030 0.00000 -0.00020 -0.00031 -0.00031 -0.00020 -0.00041 -0.00020 -0.00041 -0.00075 -0.00099 -0.00105 -0.00018 -0.00027 -0.00027 -0.00018 -0.00036 -0.00018 -0.00036 -0.00061 -0.00082 -0.000872031 0.00000 -0.00022 -0.00034 -0.00034 -0.00022 -0.00044 -0.00022 -0.00044 -0.00080 -0.00106 -0.00112 -0.00019 -0.00030 -0.00030 -0.00019 -0.00039 -0.00019 -0.00039 -0.00066 -0.00089 -0.000952032 0.00000 -0.00023 -0.00036 -0.00036 -0.00023 -0.00047 -0.00023 -0.00047 -0.00085 -0.00113 -0.00120 -0.00021 -0.00032 -0.00032 -0.00021 -0.00042 -0.00021 -0.00042 -0.00071 -0.00096 -0.001022033 0.00000 -0.00025 -0.00038 -0.00038 -0.00025 -0.00050 -0.00025 -0.00050 -0.00090 -0.00120 -0.00127 -0.00022 -0.00034 -0.00034 -0.00022 -0.00045 -0.00022 -0.00045 -0.00076 -0.00103 -0.001092034 0.00000 -0.00026 -0.00041 -0.00041 -0.00026 -0.00053 -0.00026 -0.00053 -0.00095 -0.00127 -0.00134 -0.00024 -0.00037 -0.00037 -0.00024 -0.00048 -0.00024 -0.00048 -0.00081 -0.00110 -0.001172035 0.00000 -0.00028 -0.00043 -0.00043 -0.00028 -0.00056 -0.00028 -0.00056 -0.00100 -0.00134 -0.00142 -0.00025 -0.00039 -0.00039 -0.00025 -0.00051 -0.00025 -0.00051 -0.00086 -0.00117 -0.0012420360.00000-0.00029-0.00045-0.00045-0.00029-0.00059-0.00029-0.00059-0.00105-0.00140-0.00149-0.00027-0.00041-0.00041-0.00027-0.00054-0.00027-0.00054-0.00091-0.00123-0.00131Summary of LTO NOXReduction from 2009-2036Cumulative Reduction-0.00320 -0.00497 -0.00497 -0.00320 -0.00646 -0.00320 -0.00646 -0.01224 -0.01607 -0.01702 -0.00264 -0.00409 -0.00409 -0.00264 -0.00532 -0.00264 -0.00532 -0.00910 -0.01226 -0.01304DiscountratePresent value3% -0.00179 -0.00278 -0.00278 -0.00179 -0.00362 -0.00179 -0.00362 -0.00694 -0.00909 -0.00962 -0.00144 -0.00223 -0.00223 -0.00144 -0.00290 -0.00144 -0.00290 -0.00496 -0.00668 -0.007117% -0.00088 -0.00137 -0.00137 -0.00088 -0.00179 -0.00088 -0.00179 -0.00350 -0.00456 -0.00482 -0.00068 -0.00105 -0.00105 -0.00068 -0.00137 -0.00068 -0.00137 -0.00234 -0.00315 -0.003369% -0.00064 -0.00099 -0.00099 -0.00064 -0.00129 -0.00064 -0.00129 -0.00256 -0.00332 -0.00351 -0.00048 -0.00074 -0.00074 -0.00048 -0.00096 -0.00048 -0.00096 -0.00165 -0.00222 -0.00236E-3 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix ECAEP/8 NOXStringency Analysis – Review of BenefitsReduction in Global Fleet LTO NOXfrom Baseline –Mega tonnes (Mt)Large Engines2012 Stringency Implementation 2016 Stringency ImplementationBaseline NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10 NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS1020060.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000002007 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002008 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002009 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002010 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002011 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0000020120.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002013 0.00000 -0.00157 -0.00157 -0.00175 -0.00185 -0.00185 -0.00211 -0.00211 -0.00279 -0.00279 -0.00279 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002014 0.00000 -0.00315 -0.00315 -0.00350 -0.00370 -0.00370 -0.00422 -0.00422 -0.00559 -0.00559 -0.00559 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002015 0.00000 -0.00472 -0.00472 -0.00525 -0.00554 -0.00554 -0.00633 -0.00633 -0.00838 -0.00838 -0.00838 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0000020160.00000-0.00630-0.00630-0.00699-0.00739-0.00739-0.00843-0.00843-0.01117-0.01117-0.011170.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000002017 0.00000 -0.00855 -0.00855 -0.00954 -0.01010 -0.01010 -0.01160 -0.01160 -0.01537 -0.01537 -0.01537 -0.00226 -0.00226 -0.00255 -0.00272 -0.00272 -0.00317 -0.00317 -0.00421 -0.00421 -0.004212018 0.00000 -0.01080 -0.01080 -0.01208 -0.01282 -0.01282 -0.01476 -0.01476 -0.01956 -0.01956 -0.01956 -0.00452 -0.00452 -0.00510 -0.00544 -0.00544 -0.00634 -0.00634 -0.00841 -0.00841 -0.008412019 0.00000 -0.01306 -0.01306 -0.01463 -0.01553 -0.01553 -0.01792 -0.01792 -0.02376 -0.02376 -0.02376 -0.00678 -0.00678 -0.00765 -0.00816 -0.00816 -0.00951 -0.00951 -0.01262 -0.01262 -0.012622020 0.00000 -0.01531 -0.01531 -0.01717 -0.01824 -0.01824 -0.02108 -0.02108 -0.02795 -0.02795 -0.02795 -0.00903 -0.00903 -0.01021 -0.01088 -0.01088 -0.01268 -0.01268 -0.01683 -0.01683 -0.016832021 0.00000 -0.01756 -0.01756 -0.01972 -0.02095 -0.02095 -0.02424 -0.02424 -0.03215 -0.03215 -0.03215 -0.01129 -0.01129 -0.01276 -0.01360 -0.01360 -0.01585 -0.01585 -0.02103 -0.02103 -0.021032022 0.00000 -0.01981 -0.01981 -0.02226 -0.02367 -0.02367 -0.02741 -0.02741 -0.03634 -0.03634 -0.03634 -0.01355 -0.01355 -0.01531 -0.01631 -0.01631 -0.01902 -0.01902 -0.02524 -0.02524 -0.025242023 0.00000 -0.02207 -0.02207 -0.02481 -0.02638 -0.02638 -0.03057 -0.03057 -0.04054 -0.04054 -0.04054 -0.01581 -0.01581 -0.01786 -0.01903 -0.01903 -0.02219 -0.02219 -0.02945 -0.02945 -0.029452024 0.00000 -0.02432 -0.02432 -0.02735 -0.02909 -0.02909 -0.03373 -0.03373 -0.04474 -0.04474 -0.04474 -0.01807 -0.01807 -0.02041 -0.02175 -0.02175 -0.02536 -0.02536 -0.03365 -0.03365 -0.033652025 0.00000 -0.02657 -0.02657 -0.02990 -0.03180 -0.03180 -0.03689 -0.03689 -0.04893 -0.04893 -0.04893 -0.02033 -0.02033 -0.02296 -0.02447 -0.02447 -0.02853 -0.02853 -0.03786 -0.03786 -0.0378620260.00000-0.02882-0.02882-0.03244-0.03452-0.03452-0.04006-0.04006-0.05313-0.05313-0.05313-0.02258-0.02258-0.02551-0.02719-0.02719-0.03170-0.03170-0.04207-0.04207-0.042072027 0.00000 -0.03184 -0.03184 -0.03592 -0.03825 -0.03825 -0.04454 -0.04454 -0.05913 -0.05913 -0.05913 -0.02561 -0.02561 -0.02899 -0.03093 -0.03093 -0.03619 -0.03619 -0.04807 -0.04807 -0.048072028 0.00000 -0.03487 -0.03487 -0.03939 -0.04199 -0.04199 -0.04903 -0.04903 -0.06513 -0.06513 -0.06513 -0.02863 -0.02863 -0.03247 -0.03467 -0.03467 -0.04068 -0.04068 -0.05408 -0.05408 -0.054082029 0.00000 -0.03789 -0.03789 -0.04287 -0.04573 -0.04573 -0.05351 -0.05351 -0.07113 -0.07113 -0.07113 -0.03165 -0.03165 -0.03595 -0.03841 -0.03841 -0.04517 -0.04517 -0.06009 -0.06009 -0.060092030 0.00000 -0.04091 -0.04091 -0.04635 -0.04947 -0.04947 -0.05800 -0.05800 -0.07714 -0.07714 -0.07714 -0.03468 -0.03468 -0.03943 -0.04216 -0.04216 -0.04966 -0.04966 -0.06610 -0.06610 -0.066102031 0.00000 -0.04393 -0.04393 -0.04982 -0.05321 -0.05321 -0.06248 -0.06248 -0.08314 -0.08314 -0.08314 -0.03770 -0.03770 -0.04291 -0.04590 -0.04590 -0.05415 -0.05415 -0.07210 -0.07210 -0.072102032 0.00000 -0.04695 -0.04695 -0.05330 -0.05695 -0.05695 -0.06697 -0.06697 -0.08914 -0.08914 -0.08914 -0.04073 -0.04073 -0.04639 -0.04964 -0.04964 -0.05864 -0.05864 -0.07811 -0.07811 -0.078112033 0.00000 -0.04997 -0.04997 -0.05678 -0.06068 -0.06068 -0.07146 -0.07146 -0.09514 -0.09514 -0.09514 -0.04375 -0.04375 -0.04987 -0.05338 -0.05338 -0.06313 -0.06313 -0.08412 -0.08412 -0.084122034 0.00000 -0.05300 -0.05300 -0.06025 -0.06442 -0.06442 -0.07594 -0.07594 -0.10115 -0.10115 -0.10115 -0.04677 -0.04677 -0.05334 -0.05712 -0.05712 -0.06762 -0.06762 -0.09013 -0.09013 -0.090132035 0.00000 -0.05602 -0.05602 -0.06373 -0.06816 -0.06816 -0.08043 -0.08043 -0.10715 -0.10715 -0.10715 -0.04980 -0.04980 -0.05682 -0.06086 -0.06086 -0.07211 -0.07211 -0.09613 -0.09613 -0.0961320360.00000-0.05904-0.05904-0.06720-0.07190-0.07190-0.08491-0.08491-0.11315-0.11315-0.11315-0.05282-0.05282-0.06030-0.06460-0.06460-0.07659-0.07659-0.10214-0.10214-0.10214Summary of LTO NOXReduction from 2009-2036Cumulative Reduction-0.65703 -0.65703 -0.74300 -0.79234 -0.79234 -0.92661 -0.92661 -1.23179 -1.23179 -1.23179 -0.51635 -0.51635 -0.58679 -0.62723 -0.62723 -0.73828 -0.73828 -0.98245 -0.98245 -0.98245DiscountratePresent value3% -0.36972 -0.36972 -0.41767 -0.44518 -0.44518 -0.51986 -0.51986 -0.69086 -0.69086 -0.69086 -0.28092 -0.28092 -0.31906 -0.34096 -0.34096 -0.40097 -0.40097 -0.53345 -0.53345 -0.533457% -0.18411 -0.18411 -0.20768 -0.22121 -0.22121 -0.25778 -0.25778 -0.34242 -0.34242 -0.34242 -0.13233 -0.13233 -0.15018 -0.16043 -0.16043 -0.18844 -0.18844 -0.25061 -0.25061 -0.250619% -0.13372 -0.13372 -0.15072 -0.16048 -0.16048 -0.18681 -0.18681 -0.24809 -0.24809 -0.24809 -0.09304 -0.09304 -0.10556 -0.11274 -0.11274 -0.13235 -0.13235 -0.17598 -0.17598 -0.17598CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix EE-4CAEP/8 NOXStringency Analysis – Review of BenefitsReduction in Global Fleet LTO NOXfrom Baseline –Mega tonnes (Mt)Combined Small and Large Engine Cumulative Reduction in NOX(Mt)2012 Stringency Implementation 2016 Stringency ImplementationNS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS10 NS01 NS02 NS03 NS04 NS05 NS06 NS07 NS08 NS09 NS1020060.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000002007 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002008 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002009 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002010 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002011 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0000020120.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002013 -0.00158 -0.00158 -0.00176 -0.00185 -0.00186 -0.00211 -0.00212 -0.00283 -0.00284 -0.00284 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002014 -0.00316 -0.00317 -0.00352 -0.00371 -0.00372 -0.00423 -0.00424 -0.00566 -0.00567 -0.00567 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002015 -0.00474 -0.00475 -0.00527 -0.00556 -0.00558 -0.00634 -0.00636 -0.00848 -0.00851 -0.00851 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000002016-0.00632-0.00634-0.00703-0.00742-0.00744-0.00846-0.00848-0.01131-0.01134-0.011350.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000000.000002017 -0.00859 -0.00861 -0.00960 -0.01014 -0.01018 -0.01163 -0.01167 -0.01555 -0.01559 -0.01560 -0.00227 -0.00228 -0.00257 -0.00273 -0.00274 -0.00318 -0.00319 -0.00425 -0.00426 -0.004262018 -0.01085 -0.01088 -0.01216 -0.01287 -0.01291 -0.01481 -0.01486 -0.01978 -0.01984 -0.01986 -0.00454 -0.00455 -0.00514 -0.00546 -0.00549 -0.00636 -0.00639 -0.00849 -0.00852 -0.008532019 -0.01312 -0.01315 -0.01472 -0.01559 -0.01565 -0.01798 -0.01804 -0.02402 -0.02409 -0.02411 -0.00681 -0.00683 -0.00771 -0.00819 -0.00823 -0.00955 -0.00958 -0.01274 -0.01278 -0.012792020 -0.01538 -0.01542 -0.01728 -0.01831 -0.01839 -0.02115 -0.02123 -0.02826 -0.02834 -0.02836 -0.00908 -0.00911 -0.01028 -0.01092 -0.01097 -0.01273 -0.01277 -0.01699 -0.01705 -0.017062021 -0.01764 -0.01769 -0.01985 -0.02104 -0.02112 -0.02433 -0.02441 -0.03249 -0.03259 -0.03262 -0.01135 -0.01138 -0.01285 -0.01365 -0.01371 -0.01591 -0.01597 -0.02124 -0.02131 -0.021322022 -0.01991 -0.01996 -0.02241 -0.02376 -0.02386 -0.02750 -0.02760 -0.03673 -0.03684 -0.03687 -0.01362 -0.01366 -0.01542 -0.01638 -0.01646 -0.01909 -0.01916 -0.02548 -0.02557 -0.025592023 -0.02217 -0.02223 -0.02497 -0.02649 -0.02659 -0.03068 -0.03078 -0.04096 -0.04109 -0.04112 -0.01589 -0.01594 -0.01799 -0.01912 -0.01920 -0.02227 -0.02236 -0.02973 -0.02983 -0.029852024 -0.02444 -0.02450 -0.02754 -0.02921 -0.02933 -0.03385 -0.03397 -0.04520 -0.04534 -0.04538 -0.01816 -0.01821 -0.02056 -0.02185 -0.02194 -0.02545 -0.02555 -0.03398 -0.03409 -0.034122025 -0.02670 -0.02677 -0.03010 -0.03193 -0.03207 -0.03702 -0.03716 -0.04944 -0.04959 -0.04963 -0.02043 -0.02049 -0.02312 -0.02458 -0.02468 -0.02864 -0.02874 -0.03823 -0.03835 -0.038382026-0.02897-0.02904-0.03266-0.03466-0.03480-0.04020-0.04034-0.05367-0.05384-0.05389-0.02270-0.02277-0.02569-0.02731-0.02743-0.03182-0.03194-0.04247-0.04261-0.042652027 -0.03200 -0.03209 -0.03616 -0.03841 -0.03857 -0.04470 -0.04486 -0.05973 -0.05991 -0.05996 -0.02574 -0.02581 -0.02920 -0.03106 -0.03120 -0.03632 -0.03646 -0.04853 -0.04869 -0.048732028 -0.03504 -0.03513 -0.03966 -0.04216 -0.04234 -0.04920 -0.04937 -0.06578 -0.06599 -0.06604 -0.02878 -0.02886 -0.03270 -0.03482 -0.03497 -0.04083 -0.04098 -0.05459 -0.05477 -0.054812029 -0.03807 -0.03818 -0.04316 -0.04592 -0.04611 -0.05370 -0.05389 -0.07183 -0.07206 -0.07211 -0.03182 -0.03191 -0.03620 -0.03858 -0.03874 -0.04533 -0.04550 -0.06065 -0.06084 -0.060892030 -0.04111 -0.04122 -0.04666 -0.04967 -0.04988 -0.05820 -0.05841 -0.07789 -0.07813 -0.07819 -0.03486 -0.03495 -0.03970 -0.04233 -0.04251 -0.04984 -0.05002 -0.06671 -0.06692 -0.066972031 -0.04415 -0.04427 -0.05016 -0.05342 -0.05364 -0.06270 -0.06292 -0.08394 -0.08420 -0.08426 -0.03789 -0.03800 -0.04321 -0.04609 -0.04628 -0.05434 -0.05454 -0.07276 -0.07299 -0.073052032 -0.04718 -0.04731 -0.05366 -0.05718 -0.05741 -0.06720 -0.06744 -0.08999 -0.09027 -0.09034 -0.04093 -0.04105 -0.04671 -0.04985 -0.05006 -0.05884 -0.05906 -0.07882 -0.07907 -0.079132033 -0.05022 -0.05036 -0.05716 -0.06093 -0.06118 -0.07170 -0.07195 -0.09605 -0.09634 -0.09641 -0.04397 -0.04409 -0.05021 -0.05360 -0.05383 -0.06335 -0.06357 -0.08488 -0.08515 -0.085212034 -0.05326 -0.05340 -0.06066 -0.06468 -0.06495 -0.07620 -0.07647 -0.10210 -0.10241 -0.10249 -0.04701 -0.04714 -0.05371 -0.05736 -0.05760 -0.06785 -0.06809 -0.09094 -0.09122 -0.091292035 -0.05629 -0.05645 -0.06416 -0.06844 -0.06872 -0.08070 -0.08099 -0.10815 -0.10848 -0.10857 -0.05005 -0.05019 -0.05721 -0.06111 -0.06137 -0.07236 -0.07261 -0.09700 -0.09730 -0.097372036-0.05933-0.05949-0.06766-0.07219-0.07249-0.08520-0.08550-0.11420-0.11455-0.11464-0.05309-0.05323-0.06072-0.06487-0.06514-0.07686-0.07713-0.10306-0.10338-0.10346Summary of LTO NOXReduction from 2009-2036Cumulative Reduction-0.66023 -0.66200 -0.74796 -0.79554 -0.79880 -0.92981 -0.93307 -1.24403 -1.24787 -1.24882 -0.51899 -0.52045 -0.59088 -0.62987 -0.63255 -0.74092 -0.74360 -0.99155 -0.99470 -0.99549DiscountratePresent value3% -0.37151 -0.37250 -0.42045 -0.44697 -0.44880 -0.52165 -0.52348 -0.69780 -0.69995 -0.70048 -0.28235 -0.28315 -0.32129 -0.34239 -0.34386 -0.40241 -0.40387 -0.53840 -0.54013 -0.540557% -0.18500 -0.18549 -0.20906 -0.22209 -0.22299 -0.25866 -0.25956 -0.34592 -0.34698 -0.34724 -0.13300 -0.13338 -0.15123 -0.16111 -0.16180 -0.18912 -0.18981 -0.25295 -0.25376 -0.253969% -0.13435 -0.13471 -0.15171 -0.16112 -0.16177 -0.18745 -0.18810 -0.25065 -0.25141 -0.25160 -0.09352 -0.09378 -0.10630 -0.11322 -0.11370 -0.13282 -0.13331 -0.17763 -0.17820 -0.17834CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FAPPENDIX FCAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 1 2 41 42 3 4 43 44 5 6 45 46NOx Stringency OptionNS01NS01NS01NS01NS02NS02NS02NS02NS03NS03NS03NS03Stringency Year201220122016201620122012201620162012201220162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AIncremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/AN/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ASMALL ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $1 $15 $1 $15 $69 $133 $67 $131 $69 $133 $67 $1313% $1 $14 $1 $12 $59 $120 $52 $106 $59 $120 $52 $1067% $1 $12 $1 $9 $52 $109 $40 $83 $52 $109 $40 $839% $1 $12 $1 $8 $49 $104 $35 $74 $49 $104 $35 $74Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $1 $15$1 $15 $80 $144 $82 $146 $80 $144 $82 $1463% $1 $14 $1 $12 $69 $130 $65 $119 $69 $130 $65 $1197% $1 $12 $1 $9 $60 $117 $49 $92 $60 $117 $49 $929% $1 $12 $1 $8 $57 $112 $43 $82 $57 $112 $43 $82Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036]0% 0.0032 0.0032 0.0026 0.0026 0.0050 0.0050 0.0041 0.00410.0050 0.0050 0.0041 0.00413% 0.0018 0.0018 0.0014 0.00140.0028 0.0028 0.0022 0.0022 0.00280.0028 0.0022 0.00227% 0.0009 0.0009 0.0007 0.00070.0014 0.0014 0.0011 0.0011 0.00140.0014 0.0011 0.00119% 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.00050.0010 0.0010 0.0007 0.0007 0.00100.0010 0.0007 0.0007Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $313 $4,691 $379 $5,692$13,945 $26,827 $16,288$31,918 $13,945 $26,827 $16,288 $31,9183% $511 $7,668 $566 $8,496 $21,388 $43,201 $23,426 $47,594 $21,388 $43,201 $23,426 $47,5947% $924 $13,853 $919 $13,792 $37,718 $79,030 $37,690 $78,819 $37,718 $79,030 $37,690 $78,8199% $1,209 $18,133 $1,148 $17,217$49,550 $104,919 $47,366 $99,936 $49,550$104,919 $47,366 $99,936Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $313 $4,691 $379 $5,692$16,109 $28,990 $20,135$35,764 $16,109 $28,990 $20,135 $35,7643% $511 $7,668 $566 $8,496 $24,822 $46,635 $29,001 $53,168 $24,822 $46,635 $29,001 $53,1687% $924 $13,853 $919 $13,792 $43,690 $85,002 $46,401 $87,530 $43,690 $85,002 $46,401 $87,5309% $1,209 $18,133 $1,148 $17,217$57,223 $112,592 $58,040 $110,611 $57,223$112,592 $58,040 $110,611CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FF-2CAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 1 2 41 42 3 4 43 44 5 6 45 46NOx Stringency OptionNS01NS01NS01NS01NS02NS02NS02NS02NS03NS03NS03NS03Stringency Year201220122016201620122012201620162012201220162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AIncremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedN/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ALARGE ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value0% $1,398 $1,598 $1,167 $1,367 $1,398 $1,598 $1,167 $1,367$1,513 $1,777 $1,270 $1,5343% $896 $1,088 $718 $888 $896 $1,088 $718 $888 $983 $1,235 $791 $1,0157% $557 $738 $412 $550 $557 $738 $412 $550 $624 $861 $462 $6449% $460 $636 $324 $449 $460 $636 $324 $449 $520 $752 $366 $530Costs, Including Lost Resale Value0% $2,347 $2,547 $2,692 $2,892 $2,347$2,547 $2,692 $2,892$2,501 $2,765 $2,856$3,1203% $1,739 $1,931 $1,922 $2,092$1,739 $1,931 $1,922 $2,092 $1,861$2,113 $2,043 $2,2677% $1,281 $1,462 $1,300 $1,438 $1,281 $1,462 $1,300 $1,438$1,377 $1,615 $1,385 $1,5679% $1,132 $1,309 $1,089 $1,214$1,132 $1,309 $1,089 $1,214 $1,220$1,451 $1,162 $1,326Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.6570 0.6570 0.5164 0.5164 0.6570 0.6570 0.51640.5164 0.7430 0.7430 0.5868 0.58683%0.3697 0.3697 0.2809 0.28090.3697 0.3697 0.2809 0.28090.4177 0.4177 0.3191 0.31917% 0.1841 0.1841 0.1323 0.13230.1841 0.1841 0.1323 0.1323 0.20770.2077 0.1502 0.15029% 0.1337 0.1337 0.0930 0.09300.1337 0.1337 0.0930 0.0930 0.15070.1507 0.1056 0.1056Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $2,127 $2,431 $2,261 $2,648 $2,127$2,431 $2,261 $2,648 $2,036 $2,391$2,164 $2,6143% $2,424 $2,942 $2,556 $3,161$2,424 $2,942 $2,556 $3,161 $2,354$2,957 $2,478 $3,1807% $3,025 $4,010 $3,115 $4,160$3,025 $4,010 $3,115 $4,160 $3,002$4,148 $3,077 $4,2869% $3,439 $4,759 $3,482 $4,826$3,439 $4,759 $3,482 $4,826 $3,451$4,987 $3,472 $5,025Cost per tonne, Including Lost ResaleValue 0% $3,571 $3,876 $5,214 $5,601$3,571 $3,876 $5,214$5,601 $3,366 $3,721$4,867 $5,3173% $4,705 $5,222 $6,840 $7,446$4,705 $5,222 $6,840 $7,446 $4,455$5,058 $6,402 $7,1047% $6,958 $7,942 $9,821 $10,866 $6,958 $7,942 $9,821 $10,866$6,631 $7,776 $9,223 $10,4329% $8,466 $9,787 $11,706 $13,050$8,466 $9,787 $11,706 $13,050 $8,093$9,629 $11,012 $12,566F-3 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FCAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 1 2 41 42 3 4 43 44 5 6 45 46NOx Stringency OptionNS01NS01NS01NS01NS02NS02NS02NS02NS03NS03NS03NS03Stringency Year201220122016201620122012201620162012201220162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AIncremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedN/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ACOMBINED SMALL AND LARGEENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $1,399 $1,613 $1,168 $1,382 $1,467 $1,731$1,234 $1,498 $1,582 $1,910 $1,336$1,6643% $897 $1,101 $719 $900 $956 $1,208 $770$994 $1,043 $1,355 $843 $1,1217% $558 $750 $413 $560 $609 $847 $452 $633 $675 $970 $502 $7279% $461 $648 $324 $457 $509 $740 $359 $523 $569 $856 $402 $604Costs, Including Lost Resale Value0% $2,348 $2,562 $2,693 $2,907 $2,427 $2,691 $2,774 $3,038$2,581 $2,909 $2,938 $3,2663% $1,740 $1,945 $1,922 $2,104$1,808 $2,061 $1,986 $2,210 $1,930$2,242 $2,107 $2,3857% $1,282 $1,474 $1,300 $1,447$1,341 $1,579 $1,348 $1,530 $1,437$1,732 $1,434 $1,6599% $1,133 $1,320 $1,090 $1,222$1,189 $1,420 $1,132 $1,296 $1,277$1,563 $1,205 $1,408Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.6602 0.6602 0.5190 0.5190 0.6620 0.6620 0.52040.5204 0.7480 0.7480 0.5909 0.59093% 0.3715 0.3715 0.2824 0.28240.3725 0.3725 0.2831 0.2831 0.42040.4204 0.3213 0.32137% 0.1850 0.1850 0.1330 0.13300.1855 0.1855 0.1334 0.1334 0.20910.2091 0.1512 0.15129% 0.1344 0.1344 0.0935 0.09350.1347 0.1347 0.0938 0.0938 0.15170.1517 0.1063 0.1063Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $2,118 $2,442 $2,251 $2,663 $2,216$2,615 $2,371 $2,878 $2,115 $2,554$2,262 $2,8173% $2,415 $2,965 $2,546 $3,188$2,566 $3,242 $2,720 $3,511 $2,480$3,223 $2,623 $3,4887% $3,015 $4,057 $3,104 $4,209$3,282 $4,565 $3,388 $4,749 $3,230$4,640 $3,318 $4,8049% $3,428 $4,823 $3,470 $4,889$3,778 $5,497 $3,828 $5,577 $3,752$5,640 $3,777 $5,687Cost per tonne, Including Lost ResaleValue 0% $3,556 $3,880 $5,189 $5,601$3,666 $4,064 $5,331$5,838 $3,450 $3,889$4,973 $5,5283% $4,684 $5,234 $6,809 $7,451$4,855 $5,532 $7,015 $7,806 $4,590$5,333 $6,559 $7,4247% $6,929 $7,970 $9,776 $10,881$7,230 $8,513 $10,110 $11,471 $6,874$8,284 $9,482 $10,9699% $8,432 $9,826 $11,652 $13,071$8,826 $10,544 $12,072 $13,821 $8,415$10,303 $11,340 $13,249CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FF-4CAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 7 8 47 48 9 10 49 50NOx Stringency OptionNS04NS04NS04NS04NS05NS05NS05NS05Stringency Year20122012201620162012201220162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AIncremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ASMALL ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value0% $1 $15 $1 $15 $131 $245 $127 $2413% $1 $14 $1 $12 $114 $223 $101 $1977% $1 $12 $1 $9 $101 $203 $77 $1559% $1 $12 $1 $8 $96 $195 $68 $139Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $1$15 $1 $15 $152 $266 $158 $2723% $1 $14 $1 $12 $133 $242 $125 $2227% $1 $12 $1 $9 $117 $219 $95 $1739% $1 $12 $1 $8 $111 $210 $84 $154Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.00320.0032 0.0026 0.0026 0.0065 0.00650.0053 0.00533% 0.0018 0.0018 0.0014 0.0014 0.00360.0036 0.0029 0.00297% 0.0009 0.0009 0.0007 0.0007 0.00180.0018 0.0014 0.00149% 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.00130.0013 0.0010 0.0010Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $313 $4,691 $379 $5,692$20,320 $37,971 $23,851 $45,2673% $511 $7,668 $566 $8,496 $31,629$61,646 $34,698 $67,9547% $924 $13,853 $919 $13,792 $56,476$113,634 $56,402 $113,3069% $1,209 $18,133 $1,148$17,217 $74,497 $151,305 $71,138 $144,063Cost per tonne, Including Lost ResaleValue 0% $313 $4,691 $379 $5,692 $23,610$41,261 $29,722 $51,1383% $511 $7,668 $566 $8,496 $36,851$66,868 $43,206 $76,4637%$924 $13,853 $919 $13,792 $65,558 $122,716$69,697 $126,6019% $1,209 $18,133 $1,148$17,217 $86,166 $162,974 $87,430 $160,355F-5 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FCAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 7 8 47 48 9 10 49 50NOx Stringency OptionNS04NS04NS04NS04NS05NS05NS05NS05Stringency Year20122012201620162012201220162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AIncremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ALARGE ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value0%$1,514 $1,792 $1,271 $1,549$1,514 $1,792 $1,271 $1,5493% $984 $1,249 $791 $1,027 $984 $1,249 $791 $1,0277% $624 $874 $463 $653 $624 $874 $463 $6539% $521 $763 $367 $539 $521 $763 $367 $539Costs, Including Lost Resale Value0% $2,502 $2,780 $2,857 $3,135 $2,502$2,780 $2,857 $3,1353% $1,862 $2,126 $2,043 $2,279 $1,862$2,126 $2,043 $2,2797% $1,378 $1,627 $1,386 $1,576 $1,378 $1,627 $1,386 $1,5769% $1,221 $1,463 $1,163 $1,335 $1,221$1,463 $1,163 $1,335Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.79230.7923 0.6272 0.6272 0.7923 0.79230.6272 0.62723%0.4452 0.4452 0.3410 0.34100.4452 0.4452 0.3410 0.34107% 0.2212 0.2212 0.1604 0.1604 0.22120.2212 0.1604 0.16049% 0.1605 0.1605 0.1127 0.1127 0.16050.1605 0.1127 0.1127Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $1,911 $2,261 $2,026 $2,469 $1,911$2,261 $2,026 $2,4693% $2,210 $2,805 $2,321 $3,011 $2,210$2,805 $2,321 $3,0117% $2,822 $3,950 $2,884 $4,070 $2,822$3,950 $2,884 $4,0709% $3,246 $4,756 $3,255 $4,778 $3,246$4,756 $3,255 $4,778Cost per tonne, Including Lost ResaleValue 0% $3,157 $3,508 $4,555 $4,998 $3,157 $3,508 $4,555 $4,9983% $4,182 $4,777 $5,993 $6,683 $4,182$4,777 $5,993 $6,6837% $6,229 $7,356 $8,638 $9,824$6,229 $7,356 $8,638 $9,8249% $7,606 $9,116 $10,315$11,838 $7,606 $9,116 $10,315 $11,838CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FF-6CAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run7 8 47 48 9 10 49 50NOx Stringency OptionNS04NS04NS04NS04NS05NS05NS05NS05Stringency Year20122012201620162012201220162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AIncremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ACOMBINED SMALL AND LARGEENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value0% $1,515 $1,807 $1,272 $1,564 $1,645$2,037 $1,398 $1,7903% $985 $1,263 $792 $1,039 $1,098$1,472 $892 $1,2247% $625 $886 $463 $662 $725 $1,077 $540 $8089% $522 $775 $368 $547 $617 $958 $435 $677Costs, Including Lost Resale Value0% $2,503 $2,795 $2,858 $3,150 $2,654$3,046 $3,015 $3,4073% $1,862 $2,140 $2,044 $2,291 $1,995$2,368 $2,169 $2,5007% $1,379 $1,639 $1,386 $1,585 $1,495$1,846 $1,481 $1,7499% $1,221 $1,475 $1,164 $1,343 $1,332$1,673 $1,247 $1,489Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.79550.7955 0.6299 0.6299 0.7988 0.79880.6326 0.63263% 0.4470 0.4470 0.3424 0.3424 0.44880.4488 0.3439 0.34397% 0.2221 0.2221 0.1611 0.1611 0.22300.2230 0.1618 0.16189% 0.1611 0.1611 0.1132 0.1132 0.16180.1618 0.1137 0.1137Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $1,904$2,271 $2,019 $2,483 $2,059 $2,550$2,210 $2,8293% $2,203 $2,825 $2,314 $3,034 $2,447$3,279 $2,594 $3,5597% $2,815 $3,989 $2,876 $4,111 $3,252$4,828 $3,337 $4,9949% $3,238 $4,809 $3,247 $4,830 $3,814$5,924 $3,830 $5,957Cost per tonne, Including Lost ResaleValue 0% $3,146 $3,513 $4,537 $5,001 $3,323 $3,813 $4,766 $5,3863% $4,167 $4,788 $5,970 $6,691 $4,445$5,277 $6,307 $7,2727% $6,208 $7,382 $8,606 $9,841 $6,704$8,280 $9,154 $10,8119% $7,581 $9,152 $10,277$11,861 $8,233 $10,343 $10,968 $13,096F-7 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FCAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 11 12 13 14 15 16 51 52 53 54 55 56NOx Stringency OptionNS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06Stringency Year201220122012201220122012201620162016201620162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesSMALL ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value0%$1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $153% $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $127% $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $9 $1 $9 $1 $99% $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $8 $1 $8 $1 $8Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $1 $15$1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $15 $1 $153% $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $14 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $127% $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $9 $1 $9 $1 $99% $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $12 $1 $8 $1 $8 $1 $8Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.0032 0.0032 0.0032 0.0032 0.0032 0.0032 0.00260.0026 0.0026 0.0026 0.0026 0.00263% 0.0018 0.0018 0.0018 0.00180.0018 0.0018 0.0014 0.0014 0.00140.0014 0.0014 0.00147% 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.00090.0009 0.0009 0.0007 0.0007 0.00070.0007 0.0007 0.00079% 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.00060.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.00050.0005 0.0005 0.0005Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $313$4,691 $313 $4,691 $313 $4,691 $379 $5,692 $379 $5,692 $379 $5,6923% $511 $7,668 $511 $7,668 $511 $7,668$566 $8,496 $566 $8,496 $566 $8,4967% $924 $13,853 $924 $13,853 $924 $13,853$919 $13,792 $919 $13,792 $919 $13,7929% $1,209 $18,133 $1,209 $18,133$1,209 $18,133 $1,148 $17,217 $1,148$17,217 $1,148 $17,217Cost per tonne, Including Lost ResaleValue 0% $313 $4,691 $313 $4,691$313 $4,691 $379 $5,692 $379 $5,692 $379 $5,6923% $511 $7,668 $511 $7,668 $511 $7,668$566 $8,496 $566 $8,496 $566 $8,4967% $924 $13,853 $924 $13,853 $924 $13,853$919 $13,792 $919 $13,792 $919 $13,7929% $1,209 $18,133 $1,209 $18,133$1,209 $18,133 $1,148 $17,217 $1,148$17,217 $1,148 $17,217CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FF-8CAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 11 12 13 14 15 16 51 52 53 54 55 56NOx Stringency OptionNS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06Stringency Year201220122012201220122012201620162016201620162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesLARGE ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $5,861 $6,925 $9,928 $10,992 $9,948 $11,192$6,053 $7,117 $9,265 $10,329 $9,285 $10,5293% $4,423 $5,441 $6,704 $7,722$6,723 $7,913 $4,267 $5,171 $6,008$6,912 $6,025 $7,0827% $3,273 $4,236 $4,404 $5,367$4,422 $5,548 $2,820 $3,555 $3,635$4,370 $3,649 $4,5089% $2,882 $3,820 $3,701 $4,639$3,719 $4,816 $2,333 $2,997 $2,905$3,569 $2,917 $3,694Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $7,529 $8,593 $11,596 $12,660$11,616 $12,860 $8,769$9,833 $11,981 $13,045$12,001 $13,2453% $5,904 $6,922 $8,185 $9,203$8,205 $9,395 $6,411 $7,315 $8,152$9,056 $8,169 $9,2267% $4,545 $5,508 $5,676 $6,639$5,694 $6,820 $4,401 $5,135 $5,216$5,951 $5,230 $6,0899% $4,063 $5,001 $4,883 $5,820$4,900 $5,997 $3,696 $4,360 $4,268$4,932 $4,280 $5,057Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.73830.7383 0.7383 0.7383 0.7383 0.73833% 0.5199 0.5199 0.5199 0.51990.5199 0.5199 0.4010 0.4010 0.40100.4010 0.4010 0.40107% 0.2578 0.2578 0.2578 0.25780.2578 0.2578 0.1884 0.1884 0.18840.1884 0.1884 0.18849% 0.1868 0.1868 0.1868 0.18680.1868 0.1868 0.1323 0.1323 0.13230.1323 0.1323 0.1323Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $6,326 $7,474 $10,715 $11,863 $10,736$12,079 $8,199 $9,640 $12,550 $13,991 $12,577 $14,2623% $8,508 $10,466 $12,896 $14,854$12,933 $15,222 $10,641 $12,897 $14,983$17,238 $15,025 $17,6627% $12,698 $16,433 $17,084 $20,819$17,155 $21,522 $14,965 $18,863 $19,292$23,190 $19,365 $23,9239% $15,428 $20,448 $19,814 $24,834$19,909 $25,779 $17,628 $22,648 $21,946$26,966 $22,041 $27,911Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $8,125 $9,273 $12,514$13,662 $12,536 $13,878$11,878 $13,319 $16,228$17,670 $16,256 $17,9413% $11,357 $13,315 $15,745 $17,703$15,782 $18,071 $15,989 $18,244 $20,330$22,585 $20,372 $23,0097% $17,632 $21,367 $22,019 $25,754$22,089 $26,457 $23,354 $27,252 $27,680$31,578 $27,754 $32,3129% $21,750 $26,770 $26,137 $31,157$26,231 $32,102 $27,927 $32,947 $32,245$37,265 $32,340 $38,210F-9 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FCAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 11 12 13 14 15 16 51 52 53 54 55 56NOx Stringency OptionNS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06NS06Stringency Year201220122012201220122012201620162016201620162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesCOMBINED SMALL AND LARGEENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value0%$5,862 $6,940 $9,929 $11,007 $9,949$11,207 $6,054 $7,132 $9,266 $10,344 $9,286 $10,5443% $4,424 $5,455 $6,705 $7,736$6,724 $7,927 $4,268 $5,183 $6,008$6,924 $6,025 $7,0947% $3,274 $4,248 $4,405 $5,379$4,423 $5,560 $2,821 $3,564 $3,636$4,379 $3,650 $4,5179% $2,883 $3,831 $3,702 $4,651$3,720 $4,827 $2,334 $3,006 $2,905$3,577 $2,918 $3,702Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $7,530 $8,608 $11,597 $12,675$11,617 $12,875 $8,770$9,848 $11,982 $13,060$12,002 $13,2603% $5,905 $6,936 $8,186 $9,217$8,205 $9,408 $6,412 $7,327 $8,152$9,068 $8,169 $9,2387% $4,546 $5,520 $5,677 $6,651$5,695 $6,832 $4,401 $5,145 $5,217$5,960 $5,230 $6,0989% $4,064 $5,012 $4,883 $5,832$4,901 $6,008 $3,697 $4,369 $4,268$4,940 $4,281 $5,065Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.9298 0.9298 0.9298 0.9298 0.9298 0.9298 0.74090.7409 0.7409 0.7409 0.7409 0.74093% 0.5217 0.5217 0.5217 0.52170.5217 0.5217 0.4024 0.4024 0.40240.4024 0.4024 0.40247% 0.2587 0.2587 0.2587 0.25870.2587 0.2587 0.1891 0.1891 0.18910.1891 0.1891 0.18919% 0.1874 0.1874 0.1874 0.18740.1874 0.1874 0.1328 0.1328 0.13280.1328 0.1328 0.1328Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $6,305 $7,464 $10,679 $11,838 $10,700$12,053 $8,171 $9,626 $12,506 $13,961 $12,533 $14,2313% $8,481 $10,456 $12,853 $14,829$12,890 $15,196 $10,606 $12,881 $14,931$17,207 $14,974 $17,6307% $12,657 $16,424 $17,029 $20,796$17,099 $21,496 $14,915 $18,845 $19,226$23,156 $19,299 $23,8879% $15,379 $20,440 $19,751 $24,811$19,845 $25,753 $17,569 $22,628 $21,872$26,931 $21,966 $27,873Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $8,098 $9,257 $12,472$13,631 $12,494 $13,846$11,837 $13,292 $16,172$17,627 $16,199 $17,8973% $11,320 $13,296 $15,693 $17,669$15,730 $18,036 $15,934 $18,209 $20,259$22,535 $20,302 $22,9587% $17,575 $21,341 $21,946 $25,713$22,017 $26,414 $23,274 $27,204 $27,584$31,514 $27,657 $32,2459% $21,680 $26,741 $26,052 $31,113$26,146 $32,055 $27,831 $32,891 $32,134$37,193 $32,228 $38,135CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FF-10CAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXFuel Price Sensitivity22($1.50)22($4.50)62($1.50)62($4.50)Model Run 17 18 19 20 21 22 57 58 59 60 61 62 81 82 83 84NOx Stringency OptionNS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07Stringency Year2012201220122012201220122016201620162016201620162012201220162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low HighLow High Low High Low HighHigh High High HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesYes Yes Yes YesSMALL ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $131 $245 $131 $245 $131 $245 $127 $241 $127 $241 $127 $241 $245 $245 $241 $2413% $114 $223 $114 $223 $114 $223 $101 $197 $101 $197 $101 $197 $223 $223 $197 $1977% $101 $203 $101 $203 $101 $203 $77 $155 $77 $155 $77 $155 $203 $203 $155 $1559% $96 $195 $96 $195 $96 $195 $68 $139 $68 $139 $68 $139 $195 $195 $139 $139Costs, Including Lost Resale Value0% $152 $266 $152 $266 $152 $266 $158 $272 $158 $272 $158 $272$266 $266 $272 $2723% $133 $242 $133 $242 $133 $242 $125 $222 $125 $222 $125 $222 $242 $242 $222 $2227% $117 $219 $117 $219 $117 $219 $95 $173 $95 $173 $95 $173 $219 $219 $173 $1739% $111 $210 $111 $210 $111 $210 $84 $154 $84 $154 $84 $154 $210 $210 $154 $154Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.0065 0.0065 0.0065 0.0065 0.0065 0.0065 0.00530.0053 0.0053 0.0053 0.0053 0.0053 0.0065 0.0065 0.0053 0.00533% 0.0036 0.0036 0.0036 0.00360.0036 0.0036 0.0029 0.00290.0029 0.0029 0.0029 0.00290.0036 0.0036 0.00290.00297% 0.0018 0.0018 0.0018 0.00180.0018 0.0018 0.0014 0.00140.0014 0.0014 0.0014 0.00140.0018 0.0018 0.00140.00149% 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.00130.0013 0.0013 0.0010 0.00100.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.00100.0013 0.0013 0.00100.0010Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $20,320 $37,971 $20,320$37,971 $20,320 $37,971$23,851 $45,267 $23,851 $45,267 $23,851 $45,267$37,971 $37,971 $45,267 $45,2673% $31,629 $61,646 $31,629 $61,646$31,629 $61,646 $34,698 $67,954 $34,698$67,954 $34,698 $67,954 $61,646 $61,646 $67,954 $67,9547% $56,476 $113,634 $56,476 $113,634 $56,476 $113,634 $56,402 $113,306 $56,402 $113,306 $56,402 $113,306 $113,634 $113,634 $113,306 $113,3069% $74,497 $151,305 $74,497 $151,305 $74,497 $151,305 $71,138 $144,063 $71,138 $144,063 $71,138 $144,063 $151,305 $151,305 $144,063 $144,063Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $23,610 $41,261 $23,610$41,261 $23,610 $41,261$29,722 $51,138 $29,722 $51,138 $29,722 $51,138$41,261 $41,261 $51,138 $51,1383% $36,851 $66,868 $36,851 $66,868$36,851 $66,868 $43,206 $76,463 $43,206$76,463 $43,206 $76,463 $66,868 $66,868 $76,463 $76,4637% $65,558 $122,716 $65,558 $122,716 $65,558 $122,716 $69,697 $126,601 $69,697 $126,601 $69,697 $126,601 $122,716 $122,716 $126,601 $126,6019% $86,166 $162,974 $86,166 $162,974 $86,166 $162,974 $87,430 $160,355 $87,430 $160,355 $87,430 $160,355 $162,974 $162,974 $160,355 $160,355F-11 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FCAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXFuel Price Sensitivity22($1.50)22($4.50)62($1.50)62($4.50)Model Run 17 18 19 20 21 22 57 58 59 60 61 62 81 82 83 84NOx Stringency OptionNS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07Stringency Year2012201220122012201220122016201620162016201620162012201220162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low HighLow High Low High Low HighHigh High High HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesYes Yes Yes YesLARGE ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $5,886 $6,950 $9,953 $11,017 $9,973 $11,217$6,082 $7,146 $9,294 $10,358 $9,314 $10,558 $9,679 $12,755 $9,357 $11,7593% $4,444 $5,461 $6,725 $7,742$6,744 $7,934 $4,289 $5,193$6,030 $6,934 $6,047 $7,104$7,068 $8,800 $6,451$7,7577% $3,290 $4,253 $4,421 $5,384$4,439 $5,565 $2,835 $3,570$3,651 $4,385 $3,665 $4,523$5,133 $5,997 $4,216$4,8319% $2,897 $3,835 $3,717 $4,654$3,734 $4,831 $2,346 $3,010$2,918 $3,582 $2,930 $3,707$4,517 $5,145 $3,491$3,923Costs, Including Lost Resale Value0% $7,553 $8,617 $11,620 $12,684 $11,640 $12,884 $8,798 $9,862$12,010 $13,074 $12,030 $13,274$11,346 $14,422 $12,073 $14,4753% $5,925 $6,943 $8,206 $9,224$8,225 $9,415 $6,433 $7,337$8,174 $9,078 $8,191 $9,248 $8,549 $10,282 $8,595$9,9027% $4,562 $5,525 $5,693 $6,655$5,711 $6,837 $4,416 $5,151$5,231 $5,966 $5,245 $6,104$6,405 $7,269 $5,796$6,4129% $4,078 $5,016 $4,898 $5,836$4,915 $6,012 $3,709 $4,373$4,281 $4,945 $4,293 $5,070$5,698 $6,326 $4,854$5,286Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.9266 0.73830.7383 0.7383 0.7383 0.7383 0.7383 0.9266 0.9266 0.7383 0.73833% 0.5199 0.5199 0.5199 0.51990.5199 0.5199 0.4010 0.40100.4010 0.4010 0.4010 0.40100.5199 0.5199 0.40100.40107% 0.2578 0.2578 0.2578 0.25780.2578 0.2578 0.1884 0.18840.1884 0.1884 0.1884 0.18840.2578 0.2578 0.18840.18849% 0.1868 0.1868 0.1868 0.18680.1868 0.1868 0.1323 0.13230.1323 0.1323 0.1323 0.13230.1868 0.1868 0.13230.1323Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $6,352 $7,500 $10,741 $11,889 $10,762$12,105 $8,238 $9,679 $12,589 $14,030 $12,616 $14,301 $10,445 $13,765 $12,674 $15,9283% $8,548 $10,506 $12,935 $14,893$12,972 $15,262 $10,696 $12,952 $15,038$17,293 $15,080 $17,717 $13,595 $16,928 $16,087 $19,3477% $12,763 $16,498 $17,149 $20,884$17,220 $21,587 $15,047 $18,945 $19,373$23,271 $19,447 $24,005 $19,911 $23,264 $22,372 $25,6389% $15,509 $20,529 $19,896 $24,916$19,990 $25,861 $17,726 $22,746 $22,044$27,064 $22,139 $28,009 $24,179 $27,542 $26,374 $29,644Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $8,151 $9,299 $12,540$13,688 $12,562 $13,904$11,917 $13,358 $16,268$17,709 $16,295 $17,980$12,245 $15,564 $16,353 $19,6073% $11,397 $13,355 $15,785 $17,743$15,822 $18,111 $16,043 $18,299 $20,385$22,640 $20,427 $23,064 $16,445 $19,777 $21,434 $24,6947% $17,697 $21,432 $22,084 $25,819$22,154 $26,522 $23,436 $27,334 $27,762$31,660 $27,835 $32,394 $24,846 $28,198 $30,760 $34,0279% $21,832 $26,852 $26,218 $31,238$26,313 $32,184 $28,025 $33,045 $32,344$37,363 $32,438 $38,308 $30,502 $33,865 $36,673 $39,943CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FF-12CAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXFuel Price Sensitivity22($1.50)22($4.50)62($1.50)62($4.50)Model Run 17 18 19 20 21 22 57 58 59 60 61 62 81 82 83 84NOx Stringency OptionNS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07NS07Stringency Year2012201220122012201220122016201620162016201620162012201220162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low HighLow High Low High Low HighHigh High High HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesYes Yes Yes YesCOMBINED SMALL AND LARGEENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $6,017 $7,195 $10,084 $11,262 $10,104 $11,462$6,209 $7,387 $9,421 $10,599 $9,441 $10,799 $9,924$13,000 $9,598 $12,0003% $4,558 $5,684 $6,839 $7,965$6,858 $8,157 $4,389 $5,390$6,130 $7,131 $6,147 $7,301$7,291 $9,023 $6,648$7,9557% $3,391 $4,456 $4,522 $5,586$4,540 $5,768 $2,913 $3,725$3,728 $4,540 $3,742 $4,678$5,336 $6,200 $4,371$4,9869% $2,993 $4,030 $3,813 $4,850$3,830 $5,026 $2,414 $3,149$2,986 $3,721 $2,998 $3,846$4,712 $5,340 $3,629$4,062Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $7,705 $8,883 $11,772 $12,950$11,792 $13,150 $8,956$10,134 $12,168 $13,346$12,188 $13,546 $11,612$14,688 $12,345 $14,7483% $6,058 $7,185 $8,339 $9,466$8,358 $9,657 $6,558 $7,559$8,299 $9,300 $8,316 $9,470 $8,791 $10,523 $8,816$10,1237% $4,679 $5,744 $5,810 $6,875$5,828 $7,056 $4,512 $5,324$5,327 $6,139 $5,341 $6,277$6,624 $7,488 $5,970$6,5859% $4,189 $5,226 $5,009 $6,046$5,027 $6,222 $3,793 $4,528$4,365 $5,099 $4,377 $5,224$5,908 $6,536 $5,008$5,441Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.9331 0.9331 0.9331 0.9331 0.9331 0.9331 0.74360.7436 0.7436 0.7436 0.7436 0.7436 0.9331 0.9331 0.7436 0.74363% 0.5235 0.5235 0.5235 0.52350.5235 0.5235 0.4039 0.40390.4039 0.4039 0.4039 0.40390.5235 0.5235 0.40390.40397% 0.2596 0.2596 0.2596 0.25960.2596 0.2596 0.1898 0.18980.1898 0.1898 0.1898 0.18980.2596 0.2596 0.18980.18989% 0.1881 0.1881 0.1881 0.18810.1881 0.1881 0.1333 0.13330.1333 0.1333 0.1333 0.13330.1881 0.1881 0.13330.1333Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $6,448 $7,711 $10,807 $12,070 $10,829$12,284 $8,350 $9,934 $12,670 $14,254 $12,696 $14,523 $10,636 $13,932 $12,907 $16,1383% $8,707 $10,859 $13,065 $15,216$13,101 $15,582 $10,869 $13,346 $15,179$17,657 $15,221 $18,078 $13,927 $17,237 $16,460 $19,6967% $13,063 $17,166 $17,420 $21,522 $17,490 $22,221 $15,345 $19,625$19,640 $23,920 $19,713 $24,649$20,556 $23,885 $23,027 $26,2709% $15,914 $21,426 $20,270 $25,783$20,364 $26,721 $18,112 $23,622 $22,399$27,909 $22,493 $28,847 $25,051 $28,391 $27,224 $30,470Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $8,258 $9,521 $12,617$13,879 $12,638 $14,094$12,044 $13,629 $16,364$17,948 $16,391 $18,217 $12,445 $15,742 $16,602 $19,8333%$11,573 $13,725 $15,930 $18,082$15,967 $18,448 $16,238 $18,716$20,548 $23,026 $20,591 $23,447$16,793 $20,103 $21,829 $25,0667% $18,026 $22,129 $22,383 $26,485$22,453 $27,183 $23,769 $28,049 $28,064$32,344 $28,137 $33,073 $25,519 $28,848 $31,451 $34,6949% $22,273 $27,785 $26,629 $32,142$26,723 $33,081 $28,454 $33,964 $32,741$38,251 $32,835 $39,190 $31,411 $34,750 $37,567 $40,813F-13 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FCAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 23 24 25 26 27 28 63 64 65 66 67 68NOx Stringency OptionNS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08Stringency Year201220122012201220122012201620162016201620162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesSMALL ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value0%$71 $163 $71 $163 $71 $163 $69 $161 $69 $161 $69 $1613% $61 $148 $61 $148 $61 $148 $54 $131 $54 $131 $54 $1317% $53 $133 $53 $133 $53 $133 $41 $102 $41 $102 $41 $1029% $51 $127 $51 $127 $51 $127 $36 $90 $36 $90 $36 $90Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $82 $174$82 $174 $82 $174 $84 $176 $84 $176 $84 $1763% $71 $157 $71 $157 $71 $157 $66 $143 $66 $143 $66 $1437% $62 $141 $62 $141 $62 $141 $50 $111 $50 $111 $50 $1119% $58 $135 $58 $135 $58 $135 $44 $98 $44 $98 $44 $98Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.0122 0.00910.0091 0.0091 0.0091 0.0091 0.00913% 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.00690.0069 0.0069 0.0050 0.0050 0.00500.0050 0.0050 0.00507% 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.00350.0035 0.0035 0.0023 0.0023 0.00230.0023 0.0023 0.00239% 0.0026 0.0026 0.0026 0.00260.0026 0.0026 0.0016 0.0016 0.00160.0016 0.0016 0.0016Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $5,823 $13,339 $5,823 $13,339 $5,823$13,339 $7,551 $17,664 $7,551 $17,664 $7,551 $17,6643% $8,833 $21,263 $8,833 $21,263$8,833 $21,263 $10,863 $26,323 $10,863$26,323 $10,863 $26,3237% $15,276 $38,030 $15,276 $38,030$15,276 $38,030 $17,463 $43,382 $17,463$43,382 $17,463 $43,3829% $19,842 $49,798 $19,842 $49,798$19,842 $49,798 $21,929 $54,818 $21,929$54,818 $21,929 $54,818Cost per tonne, Including Lost ResaleValue 0% $6,701 $14,217 $6,701 $14,217 $6,701 $14,217 $9,283 $19,395 $9,283 $19,395 $9,283 $19,3953% $10,208 $22,638 $10,208 $22,638$10,208 $22,638 $13,370 $28,830 $13,370$28,830 $13,370 $28,8307% $17,620 $40,375 $17,620 $40,375$17,620 $40,375 $21,376 $47,295 $21,376$47,295 $21,376 $47,2959% $22,822 $52,777 $22,822 $52,777$22,822 $52,777 $26,722 $59,611 $26,722$59,611 $26,722 $59,611CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FF-14CAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 23 24 25 26 27 28 63 64 65 66 67 68NOx Stringency OptionNS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08Stringency Year201220122012201220122012201620162016201620162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesLARGE ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value0%$9,888 $12,816 $26,790 $29,718 $26,860$30,418 $10,036 $12,964 $23,224 $26,152 $23,294 $26,8523% $7,453 $10,254 $16,960 $19,761$17,027 $20,431 $7,066 $9,555 $14,226$16,715 $14,286 $17,3117% $5,518 $8,169 $10,250 $12,900$10,313 $13,535 $4,670 $6,692 $8,033$10,055 $8,081 $10,5399% $4,863 $7,445 $8,299 $10,881$8,361 $11,499 $3,866 $5,695 $6,226$8,055 $6,270 $8,493Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $12,787 $15,715 $29,690 $32,618$29,760 $33,318 $14,781$17,709 $27,969 $30,897 $28,039 $31,5973% $10,029 $12,831 $19,536 $22,337$19,603 $23,007 $10,811 $13,300 $17,972$20,461 $18,032 $21,0567% $7,730 $10,381 $12,462 $15,112 $12,525 $15,747 $7,432 $9,454$10,794 $12,816 $10,843 $13,3009% $6,917 $9,499 $10,353 $12,935$10,415 $13,553 $6,248 $8,077 $8,608$10,437 $8,651 $10,874Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 0.98240.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.98243%0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.69090.6909 0.6909 0.5334 0.53340.5334 0.5334 0.5334 0.53347% 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.34240.3424 0.3424 0.2506 0.2506 0.25060.2506 0.2506 0.25069% 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.24810.2481 0.2481 0.1760 0.1760 0.17600.1760 0.1760 0.1760Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $8,027 $10,404 $21,749$24,126 $21,806 $24,694$10,215 $13,195 $23,639$26,619 $23,710 $27,3313% $10,788 $14,843 $24,549 $28,604$24,646 $29,574 $13,245 $17,911 $26,669$31,335 $26,780 $32,4507% $16,115 $23,856 $29,934 $37,674$30,119 $39,526 $18,636 $26,704 $32,053$40,121 $32,246 $42,0529% $19,601 $30,008 $33,451 $43,857$33,700 $46,348 $21,969 $32,362 $35,380$45,773 $35,629 $48,261Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $10,381 $12,758 $24,103$26,480 $24,160 $27,048$15,045 $18,025 $28,468 $31,449 $28,540 $32,1613% $14,517 $18,572 $28,278 $32,333$28,375 $33,302 $20,267 $24,933 $33,690$38,356 $33,802 $39,4727% $22,575 $30,316 $36,394 $44,134 $36,579 $45,986 $29,656 $37,724$43,072 $51,141 $43,266 $53,0729% $27,881 $38,288 $41,730 $52,137$41,979 $54,628 $35,501 $45,894 $48,912$59,305 $49,161 $61,793F-15 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FCAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 23 24 25 26 27 28 63 64 65 66 67 68NOx Stringency OptionNS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08NS08Stringency Year201220122012201220122012201620162016201620162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise Included NoNo No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesCOMBINED SMALL AND LARGEENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $9,959$12,979 $26,862 $29,882 $26,932 $30,582 $10,104 $13,124 $23,292 $26,312 $23,362 $27,0123% $7,514 $10,402 $17,021 $19,909$17,088 $20,579 $7,120 $9,685 $14,280$16,846 $14,340 $17,4417% $5,572 $8,302 $10,303 $13,033$10,367 $13,668 $4,711 $6,794 $8,074$10,156 $8,122 $10,6409% $4,914 $7,572 $8,350 $11,008$8,411 $11,626 $3,902 $5,786 $6,262$8,146 $6,306 $8,583Costs, Including Lost Resale Value0% $12,869 $15,889 $29,772 $32,792 $29,842 $33,492 $14,865 $17,885$28,053 $31,073 $28,123 $31,7733% $10,100 $12,988 $19,607 $22,495$19,674 $23,165 $10,878 $13,443 $18,038$20,604 $18,098 $21,1997% $7,792 $10,522 $12,524 $15,254$12,587 $15,888 $7,482 $9,565 $10,844$12,927 $10,893 $13,4119% $6,975 $9,634 $10,411 $13,070$10,473 $13,688 $6,292 $8,175 $8,652$10,535 $8,695 $10,973Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 1.2440 1.2440 1.2440 1.2440 1.2440 1.2440 0.99150.9915 0.9915 0.9915 0.9915 0.99153% 0.6978 0.6978 0.6978 0.69780.6978 0.6978 0.5384 0.5384 0.53840.5384 0.5384 0.53847% 0.3459 0.3459 0.3459 0.34590.3459 0.3459 0.2530 0.2530 0.25300.2530 0.2530 0.25309% 0.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.25060.2506 0.2506 0.1776 0.1776 0.17760.1776 0.1776 0.1776Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $8,006 $10,433 $21,592$24,020 $21,649 $24,583$10,190 $13,236 $23,491$26,537 $23,562 $27,2433% $10,769 $14,907 $24,392 $28,531$24,489 $29,491 $13,223 $17,989 $26,523$31,288 $26,634 $32,3947% $16,107 $23,999 $29,786 $37,678$29,969 $39,511 $18,625 $26,859 $31,918$40,151 $32,109 $42,0649% $19,604 $30,210 $33,312 $43,918$33,558 $46,383 $21,969 $32,571 $35,255$45,857 $35,502 $48,322Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $10,345 $12,773 $23,932$26,359 $23,988 $26,922$14,992 $18,038 $28,292 $31,338 $28,363 $32,0443% $14,474 $18,612 $28,098 $32,236$28,194 $33,196 $20,204 $24,969 $33,503$38,269 $33,614 $39,3747% $22,525 $30,418 $36,204 $44,096$36,387 $45,930 $29,579 $37,813 $42,872$51,105 $43,063 $53,0189% $27,829 $38,435 $41,537 $52,143$41,784 $54,609 $35,420 $46,022 $48,706$59,308 $48,952 $61,773CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FF-16CAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 29 30 31 32 33 34 69 70 71 72 73 74NOx Stringency OptionNS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09Stringency Year201220122012201220122012201620162016201620162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesSMALL ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value0%$263 $477 $263 $477 $263 $477 $254 $468 $254 $468 $254 $4683% $228 $433 $228 $433 $228 $433 $201 $382 $201 $382 $201 $3827% $201 $394 $201 $394 $201 $394 $154 $301 $154 $301 $154 $3019% $192 $379 $192 $379 $192 $379 $137 $269 $137 $269 $137 $269Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $305 $519$305 $519 $305 $519 $317 $531 $317 $531 $317 $5313% $266 $471 $266 $471 $266 $471 $251 $432 $251 $432 $251 $4327% $234 $426 $234 $426 $234 $426 $191 $338 $191 $338 $191 $3389% $222 $409 $222 $409 $222 $409 $168 $301 $168 $301 $168 $301Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.0161 0.0161 0.0161 0.0161 0.0161 0.0161 0.01230.0123 0.0123 0.0123 0.0123 0.01233%0.0091 0.0091 0.0091 0.00910.0091 0.0091 0.0067 0.00670.0067 0.0067 0.0067 0.00677% 0.0046 0.0046 0.0046 0.00460.0046 0.0046 0.0032 0.0032 0.00320.0032 0.0032 0.00329% 0.0033 0.0033 0.0033 0.00330.0033 0.0033 0.0022 0.0022 0.00220.0022 0.0022 0.0022Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $16,337 $29,651 $16,337$29,651 $16,337 $29,651$20,715 $38,176 $20,715 $38,176 $20,715 $38,1763% $25,136 $47,612 $25,136 $47,612$25,136 $47,612 $30,079 $57,246 $30,079$57,246 $30,079 $57,2467% $44,140 $86,417 $44,140 $86,417$44,140 $86,417 $48,805 $95,399 $48,805$95,399 $48,805 $95,3999% $57,707 $114,120 $57,707 $114,120$57,707 $114,120 $61,513 $121,293 $61,513$121,293 $61,513 $121,293Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $18,997 $32,311 $18,997$32,311 $18,997 $32,311$25,855 $43,317 $25,855 $43,317 $25,855 $43,3173% $29,316 $51,792 $29,316 $51,792$29,316 $51,792 $37,524 $64,691 $37,524$64,691 $37,524 $64,6917% $51,297 $93,574 $51,297 $93,574 $51,297 $93,574 $60,430 $107,024$60,430 $107,024 $60,430 $107,0249% $66,825 $123,238 $66,825 $123,238$66,825 $123,238 $75,752 $135,532 $75,752$135,532 $75,752 $135,532F-17 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FCAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 29 30 31 32 33 34 69 70 71 72 73 74NOx Stringency OptionNS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09Stringency Year201220122012201220122012201620162016201620162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesLARGE ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value0%$9,890 $12,818 $26,792 $29,720 $26,862$30,420 $10,038 $12,966 $23,226 $26,154 $23,296 $26,8543% $7,454 $10,256 $16,961 $19,763$17,028 $20,433 $7,067 $9,556 $14,228$16,717 $14,287 $17,3127% $5,519 $8,170 $10,251 $12,901$10,314 $13,536 $4,671 $6,694 $8,034$10,056 $8,082 $10,5409% $4,864 $7,446 $8,300 $10,882$8,362 $11,500 $3,867 $5,696 $6,227$8,056 $6,271 $8,494Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $12,789 $15,717 $29,691 $32,619$29,761 $33,319 $14,783$17,711 $27,971 $30,899 $28,041 $31,5993% $10,031 $12,832 $19,537 $22,339$19,604 $23,009 $10,813 $13,302 $17,974$20,463 $18,033 $21,0587% $7,731 $10,382 $12,463 $15,113 $12,526 $15,748 $7,433 $9,455$10,795 $12,818 $10,844 $13,3019% $6,918 $9,500 $10,354 $12,936$10,416 $13,554 $6,248 $8,077 $8,608$10,438 $8,652 $10,875Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 0.98240.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.98243%0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.69090.6909 0.6909 0.5334 0.53340.5334 0.5334 0.5334 0.53347% 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.34240.3424 0.3424 0.2506 0.2506 0.25060.2506 0.2506 0.25069% 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.24810.2481 0.2481 0.1760 0.1760 0.17600.1760 0.1760 0.1760Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $8,029 $10,406 $21,750$24,127 $21,807 $24,696$10,217 $13,197 $23,641$26,621 $23,712 $27,3333% $10,790 $14,845 $24,551 $28,606$24,648 $29,576 $13,248 $17,914 $26,672$31,337 $26,783 $32,4537% $16,119 $23,859 $29,937 $37,677$30,122 $39,530 $18,640 $26,709 $32,057$40,126 $32,250 $42,0569% $19,605 $30,012 $33,455 $43,861$33,704 $46,352 $21,974 $32,368 $35,385$45,779 $35,634 $48,266Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $10,382 $12,759 $24,104$26,481 $24,161 $27,049$15,047 $18,027 $28,470 $31,451 $28,542 $32,1633% $14,519 $18,574 $28,280 $32,335$28,377 $33,304 $20,270 $24,936 $33,693$38,359 $33,805 $39,4757% $22,579 $30,319 $36,397 $44,137 $36,582 $45,990 $29,660 $37,729$43,077 $51,145 $43,270 $53,0769% $27,885 $38,292 $41,734 $52,141$41,983 $54,632 $35,506 $45,900 $48,917$59,311 $49,166 $61,798CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FF-18CAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXModel Run 29 30 31 32 33 34 69 70 71 72 73 74NOx Stringency OptionNS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09NS09Stringency Year201220122012201220122012201620162016201620162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesCOMBINED SMALL AND LARGEENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $10,152$13,294 $27,054 $30,196 $27,124 $30,896 $10,292 $13,434 $23,480 $26,622 $23,550 $27,3223% $7,683 $10,688 $17,190 $20,195$17,257 $20,865 $7,268 $9,939 $14,429$17,099 $14,488 $17,6957% $5,720 $8,564 $10,452 $13,295 $10,516 $13,929 $4,825 $6,994$8,188 $10,357 $8,236 $10,8419% $5,056 $7,825 $8,491 $11,261$8,553 $11,879 $4,004 $5,965 $6,364$8,325 $6,408 $8,763Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $13,094 $16,236 $29,997 $33,139$30,067 $33,839 $15,100$18,242 $28,288 $31,430 $28,358 $32,1303%$10,297 $13,303 $19,804 $22,809$19,871 $23,479 $11,064 $13,734$18,224 $20,895 $18,284 $21,4907% $7,965 $10,808 $12,697 $15,540$12,760 $16,174 $7,624 $9,793 $10,986$13,155 $11,034 $13,6399% $7,140 $9,909 $10,576 $13,345$10,638 $13,963 $6,417 $8,378 $8,777$10,738 $8,820 $11,176Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036]0% 1.2479 1.2479 1.2479 1.2479 1.2479 1.2479 0.9947 0.99470.9947 0.9947 0.9947 0.99473% 0.6999 0.6999 0.6999 0.69990.6999 0.6999 0.5401 0.5401 0.54010.5401 0.5401 0.54017% 0.3470 0.3470 0.3470 0.34700.3470 0.3470 0.2538 0.2538 0.25380.2538 0.2538 0.25389% 0.2514 0.2514 0.2514 0.25140.2514 0.2514 0.1782 0.1782 0.17820.1782 0.1782 0.1782Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $8,136 $10,653 $21,681$24,198 $21,737 $24,759$10,346 $13,505 $23,605$26,763 $23,675 $27,4673% $10,976 $15,270 $24,558 $28,852$24,654 $29,810 $13,456 $18,401 $26,714$31,658 $26,824 $32,7607% $16,487 $24,681 $30,123 $38,317 $30,306 $40,145 $19,015 $27,563$32,265 $40,813 $32,456 $42,7199% $20,109 $31,123 $33,775 $44,789$34,021 $47,247 $22,467 $33,476 $35,711$46,720 $35,957 $49,176Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $10,493 $13,011 $24,038$26,556 $24,094 $27,117$15,180 $18,339 $28,438 $31,597 $28,509 $32,3013%$14,711 $19,005 $28,293 $32,587$28,389 $33,544 $20,484 $25,428$33,741 $38,685 $33,851 $39,7877% $22,956 $31,150 $36,593 $44,787$36,775 $46,615 $30,043 $38,590 $43,293$51,840 $43,483 $53,7479% $28,399 $39,414 $42,066 $53,080$42,311 $55,538 $36,008 $47,017 $49,252$60,260 $49,497 $62,717F-19 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FCAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXFuel Price Sensitivity40($1.50)40($4.50)80($1.50)80($4.50)Model Run 35 36 37 38 39 40 75 76 77 78 79 80 85 86 87 88NOx Stringency OptionNS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10Stringency Year2012201220122012201220122016201620162016201620162012201220162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High LowHigh Low High Low High Low High High High High HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesYes Yes Yes YesSMALL ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $264 $492 $264 $492 $264 $492 $255 $483 $255 $483 $255 $483 $492 $492 $483 $4833%$229 $446 $229 $446 $229 $446 $202 $395 $202 $395 $202 $395$446 $446 $395 $3957% $202 $406 $202 $406 $202 $406 $155 $310 $155 $310 $155 $310 $406 $406 $310 $3109% $192 $391 $192 $391 $192 $391 $137 $278 $137 $278 $137 $278 $391 $391 $278 $278Costs, Including Lost Resale Value0% $306 $534 $306 $534 $306 $534 $318 $546 $318 $546 $318 $546$534 $534 $546 $5463% $267 $484 $267 $484 $267 $484 $251 $444 $251 $444 $251 $444 $484 $484 $444 $4447% $235 $439 $235 $439 $235 $439 $191 $347 $191 $347 $191 $347 $439 $439 $347 $3479% $223 $421 $223 $421 $223 $421 $169 $309 $169 $309 $169 $309 $421 $421 $309 $309Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 0.0170 0.0170 0.0170 0.0170 0.0170 0.0170 0.01300.0130 0.0130 0.0130 0.0130 0.0130 0.0170 0.0170 0.0130 0.01303% 0.0096 0.0096 0.0096 0.00960.0096 0.0096 0.0071 0.00710.0071 0.0071 0.0071 0.00710.0096 0.0096 0.00710.00717% 0.0048 0.0048 0.0048 0.0048 0.0048 0.0048 0.0034 0.00340.0034 0.0034 0.0034 0.00340.0048 0.0048 0.0034 0.00349% 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.00350.0035 0.0035 0.0024 0.00240.0024 0.0024 0.0024 0.00240.0035 0.0035 0.00240.0024Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $15,484 $28,878 $15,484$28,878 $15,484 $28,878$19,547 $37,034 $19,547 $37,034 $19,547 $37,034$28,878 $28,878 $37,034 $37,0343%$23,842 $46,407 $23,842 $46,407$23,842 $46,407 $28,388 $55,527$28,388 $55,527 $28,388 $55,527$46,407 $46,407 $55,527 $55,5277% $41,904 $84,249 $41,904 $84,249$41,904 $84,249 $46,064 $92,463 $46,064$92,463 $46,064 $92,463 $84,249 $84,249 $92,463 $92,4639% $54,808 $111,251 $54,808 $111,251 $54,808 $111,251 $58,058 $117,497 $58,058 $117,497 $58,058 $117,497 $111,251 $111,251 $117,497 $117,497Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $17,995 $31,389 $17,995$31,389 $17,995 $31,389$24,379 $41,866 $24,379 $41,866 $24,379 $41,866$31,389 $31,389 $41,866 $41,8663% $27,790 $50,355 $27,790 $50,355$27,790 $50,355 $35,387 $62,525 $35,387$62,525 $35,387 $62,525 $50,355 $50,355 $62,525 $62,5257% $48,672 $91,016 $48,672 $91,016 $48,672 $91,016 $56,992 $103,391 $56,992 $103,391 $56,992 $103,391 $91,016$91,016 $103,391 $103,3919%$63,433 $119,876 $63,433 $119,876$63,433 $119,876 $71,443 $130,883$71,443 $130,883 $71,443 $130,883$119,876 $119,876 $130,883 $130,883CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FF-20CAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXFuel Price Sensitivity40($1.50)40($4.50)80($1.50)80($4.50)Model Run 35 36 37 38 39 40 75 76 77 78 79 80 85 86 87 88NOx Stringency OptionNS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10Stringency Year2012201220122012201220122016201620162016201620162012201220162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High LowHigh Low High Low High Low High High High High HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesYes Yes Yes YesLARGE ENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $9,894$12,822 $26,797 $29,725 $26,867 $30,425 $10,044 $12,972 $23,232 $26,160 $23,302 $26,860 $23,974$36,875 $21,870 $31,8503% $7,458 $10,260 $16,965 $19,767$17,032 $20,437 $7,072 $9,561 $14,233$16,722 $14,292 $17,317 $16,795 $24,078 $14,598 $20,0367% $5,523 $8,173 $10,254 $12,905$10,318 $13,539 $4,675 $6,697 $8,037$10,059 $8,086 $10,543 $11,717 $15,361$9,260 $11,8269% $4,867 $7,449 $8,303 $10,885$8,365 $11,503 $3,870 $5,699$6,230 $8,059 $6,274 $8,497 $10,176 $12,829 $7,593 $9,400Costs, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $12,794 $15,722 $29,696 $32,624$29,766 $33,324 $14,789$17,717 $27,977 $30,905 $28,047 $31,605 $26,873$39,775 $26,615 $36,5953% $10,035 $12,836 $19,541 $22,343$19,608 $23,013 $10,818 $13,307 $17,978$20,467 $18,038 $21,063 $19,371 $26,654 $18,344 $23,7827% $7,735 $10,385 $12,466 $15,117$12,530 $15,751 $7,436 $9,458 $10,799$12,821 $10,847 $13,305 $13,929 $17,573 $12,021 $14,5889% $6,921 $9,503 $10,357 $12,939$10,419 $13,557 $6,251 $8,080 $8,611$10,440 $8,655 $10,878 $12,230 $14,883$9,975 $11,781Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 1.2318 0.98240.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 0.9824 1.2318 1.2318 0.9824 0.98243% 0.6909 0.6909 0.6909 0.69090.6909 0.6909 0.5334 0.53340.5334 0.5334 0.5334 0.53340.6909 0.6909 0.53340.53347% 0.3424 0.3424 0.3424 0.34240.3424 0.3424 0.2506 0.25060.2506 0.2506 0.2506 0.25060.3424 0.3424 0.25060.25069% 0.2481 0.2481 0.2481 0.24810.2481 0.2481 0.1760 0.17600.1760 0.1760 0.1760 0.17600.2481 0.2481 0.17600.1760Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $8,032 $10,409 $21,754$24,131 $21,811 $24,699$10,223 $13,204 $23,647$26,627 $23,718 $27,340$19,463 $29,936 $22,260 $32,4193% $10,796 $14,851 $24,557 $28,612$24,654 $29,581 $13,257 $17,923 $26,680$31,346 $26,792 $32,462 $24,310 $34,852 $27,365 $37,5597% $16,128 $23,869 $29,946 $37,687$30,132 $39,539 $18,653 $26,722 $32,070$40,139 $32,263 $42,070 $34,219 $44,860 $36,949 $47,1909% $19,617 $30,024 $33,466 $43,873$33,715 $46,364 $21,990 $32,383 $35,401$45,794 $35,650 $48,282 $41,018 $51,710 $43,149 $53,415Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $10,386 $12,763 $24,108$26,485 $24,165 $27,053$15,053 $18,033 $28,477 $31,457 $28,548 $32,170$21,816 $32,290 $27,090 $37,2493% $14,525 $18,580 $28,286 $32,340$28,383 $33,310 $20,279 $24,945 $33,702$38,368 $33,814 $39,484 $28,039 $38,581 $34,387 $44,5817% $22,588 $30,329 $36,406 $44,147$36,592 $45,999 $29,673 $37,742 $43,090$51,158 $43,283 $53,089 $40,679 $51,320 $47,968 $58,2109% $27,897 $38,303 $41,746 $52,153$41,995 $54,643 $35,522 $45,915 $48,933$59,326 $49,182 $61,814 $49,297 $59,990 $56,681 $66,947F-21 CAEP/8-IP/14Appendix FCAEP/8 NOXStringency ResultsTime Horizon:2009-2036Costs in Millions of 2009 DollarsBenefits in Mega tonnes LTO NOXFuel Price Sensitivity40($1.50)40($4.50)80($1.50)80($4.50)Model Run 35 36 37 38 39 40 75 76 77 78 79 80 85 86 87 88NOx Stringency OptionNS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10NS10Stringency Year2012201220122012201220122016201620162016201620162012201220162016MS Non-Recurring Cost Scenario Low High Low High LowHigh Low High Low High Low High High High High HighMS3 Fuel Penalty 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Incremental MS3 Non-Recurring for Noise IncludedNo No No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes YesYes Yes Yes YesCOMBINED SMALL AND LARGEENGINE GROUPDiscountrateCosts, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $10,158$13,314 $27,060 $30,216 $27,130 $30,916 $10,299 $13,455 $23,487 $26,643 $23,557 $27,343 $24,465$37,367 $22,352 $32,3333%$7,688 $10,706 $17,195 $20,213$17,262 $20,883 $7,274 $9,956$14,434 $17,116 $14,494 $17,711$17,241 $24,525 $14,992 $20,4307% $5,725 $8,579 $10,456 $13,311$10,520 $13,945 $4,829 $7,007 $8,192$10,369 $8,240 $10,853 $12,123 $15,767$9,570 $12,1379% $5,059 $7,839 $8,495 $11,275$8,557 $11,893 $4,007 $5,976$6,367 $8,336 $6,411 $8,774 $10,567 $13,220 $7,871 $9,677Costs, Including Lost Resale Value0% $13,100 $16,256 $30,002 $33,158 $30,072 $33,858 $15,107 $18,263$28,295 $31,451 $28,365 $32,151$27,408 $40,309 $27,160 $37,1413% $10,302 $13,320 $19,809 $22,827$19,876 $23,497 $11,069 $13,751 $18,230$20,912 $18,289 $21,507 $19,856 $27,139 $18,788 $24,2267% $7,969 $10,824 $12,701 $15,555$12,764 $16,190 $7,628 $9,805 $10,990$13,168 $11,038 $13,652 $14,368 $18,011 $12,368 $14,9359% $7,144 $9,924 $10,580 $13,360$10,641 $13,978 $6,420 $8,389 $8,780$10,749 $8,824 $11,187 $12,651 $15,304$10,284 $12,090Benefits - NOXReduction [2009-2036] 0% 1.2488 1.2488 1.2488 1.2488 1.2488 1.2488 0.99550.9955 0.9955 0.9955 0.9955 0.9955 1.2488 1.2488 0.9955 0.99553% 0.7005 0.7005 0.7005 0.70050.7005 0.7005 0.5406 0.54060.5406 0.5406 0.5406 0.54060.7005 0.7005 0.54060.54067% 0.3472 0.3472 0.3472 0.3472 0.3472 0.3472 0.2540 0.25400.2540 0.2540 0.2540 0.25400.3472 0.3472 0.2540 0.25409% 0.2516 0.2516 0.2516 0.25160.2516 0.2516 0.1783 0.17830.1783 0.1783 0.1783 0.17830.2516 0.2516 0.17830.1783Cost per tonne, Excluding Lost Resale Value 0% $8,134 $10,661 $21,669$24,196 $21,725 $24,756$10,345 $13,516 $23,593$26,764 $23,664 $27,467$19,591 $29,922 $22,454 $32,4803%$10,975 $15,284 $24,547 $28,856$24,642 $29,812 $13,456 $18,417$26,703 $31,664 $26,813 $32,765$24,614 $35,011 $27,735 $37,7957% $16,486 $24,707 $30,112 $38,333$30,295 $40,160 $19,016 $27,591 $32,255$40,830 $32,446 $42,735 $34,913 $45,406 $37,682 $47,7899% $20,108 $31,158 $33,764 $44,813$34,010 $47,269 $22,468 $33,511 $35,701$46,744 $35,947 $49,199 $41,998 $52,541 $44,134 $54,263Cost per tonne, Including Lost Resale Value 0% $10,490 $13,017 $24,025$26,552 $24,081 $27,112$15,175 $18,346 $28,423 $31,593 $28,493 $32,297$21,947 $32,278 $27,284 $37,3103% $14,707 $19,016 $28,279 $32,588$28,374 $33,544 $20,478 $25,439 $33,724$38,686 $33,835 $39,787 $28,346 $38,743 $34,757 $44,8177% $22,950 $31,171 $36,577 $44,797$36,759 $46,624 $30,034 $38,609 $43,274$51,849 $43,464 $53,754 $41,377 $51,871 $48,701 $58,8079%$28,393 $39,442 $42,049 $53,098$42,294 $55,554 $35,998 $47,041$49,231 $60,274 $49,476 $62,729$50,282 $60,825 $57,664 $67,793

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix G



# APPENDIX G

CAEP/8 MODTF / FESG DATA HANDOVER

1. SUMMARY

1.1 This paper documents the MODTF/FESG inte r-group coordination of data handover for the

CAEP/8 NOx stringency cost effectiveness analysis. It describes the type and format of data required

from MODTF to be used as input to the FESG NOx Cost Spreadsheet Model (NOx-CSM) to allow FESG

to complete the cost-effectiveness analysis.

2. INTRODUCTION

2.1 As part of the CAEP/8 work programme, M ODTF modellers undertook a NOx stringency policy

assessment in conjunction with FESG. The MODTF r esponsibility for the assessment was primarily tied

to the environmental modelling, but close coordi nation with WG1, WG3 and FESG was essential for

success.

2.2 This paper specifically discusses the requireme nts to ensure a success ful MODTF/FESG data

handoff so that FESG can model the costs and the resulting cost-effectiveness results. The FESG NOx

Cost Spreadsheet model is designed to work with a ggregate global results, with no distinction for region.

3. FESG NO X 

# STRINGENCY DATA HANDOFF REQUIREMENTS

3.1 Following is a list of the data requirements ou tlined by the FESG NOx Stringency Task Group,

along with a proposed MODTF path forward to meeting these requirements.

3.1.1 Operating Aircraft – The operating aircraft can be deri ved from available MODTF data, making

some reasonable assumptions. The quotient of ope rating aircraft hours (Item 6 below) and operating

aircraft cycles (Item 5 below) provides a value of average time per flight, per year, which can easily be

converted to average time per flight , per day. Average aircraft utilizati on data used in the FESG forecast

can be provided which should allow MODTF to determine the total flight time per operating aircraft per

day (e.g., 14 hours), so that the number of operating airc raft can be determined. Table G.1, at the end of

this document, provides average annual aircraft utilization by FESG seat group from the FESG central

forecast. The assumed value can be checked for reaso nableness with data from Back Aviation Solutions.

The final number of operating aircraft can also be checked for reasonableness by comparing with active

aircraft in the Campbell Hill (CH) and Campbell Hill Extension (CHE) databases.

3.1.2 Operating Engines – The number of engines for each flight in the MODTF OPERATION_YY

file (which is derived from the MODTF Common Opera tions Database for aircraft/engine flights subject

to NOx stringency, i.e., >26.7kN) is included in the MODTF AIRCRAFT_MAPPING file. By joining the

number of engines with the number of flights, the op erating engines can be determined as in 1 above for

operating aircraft.

3.1.3 New Aircraft Delivered – The new aircraft delivered will be determined in a manner similar to

that proposed above in 1 for operating aircraft, but us ing the flights from the aircraft replacement file

(which will be made up entirely of delivered airc raft), along with the operating hours associated with

those aircraft as determined in 6 below.

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix G 

# G-2

3.1.4 New Engines Delivered – The number of engines for each flight in the MODTF

AIRCRAFT_REPLACEMENT file is included in the MODTF AIRCRAFT_MAPPING file. By joining

the number of engines with the number of replaced fli ghts in the computation of new aircraft delivered in

3 above, the new engines deliv ered will be determined.

3.1.5 Operating Aircraft Cycles – This variable will be determined directly from the flights in the

MODTF OPERATION_YY file, assuming one takeoff/landi ng in the file is equi valent to one operating

aircraft cycle. The values from OPERATION_YY will be scaled by a factor of 52/6 to provide annual

cycles, since MODTF is conducting its analysis base d on 6 weeks of operations (e.g., Approximately 30

million annual cycles in 2006).

3.1.6 Operating Engine Cycles – The number of engines for each flight in the MODTF

OPERATION_YY file (see 5 above) is included in the MODTF AIRCRAFT_MAPPING file. By joining

the number of engines with the number of flights, th e operating engine cycles will be determined. As with

5 above, the number of engine cycles will be scaled by a factor of 52/6 to annualize the value.

3.1.7 Operating Aircraft Block Hours – This variable will be dete rmined by using accumulated block

time as provided in the trajectories file distributed to GHG modellers. As with 5 above, the operating

aircraft block hours will be scaled by a factor of 52/6 to annualize the value.

3.1.8 Operating Engine Block Hours – The number of engines for each flight in the MODTF

OPERATION_YY file is included in the MODTF AI RCRAFT_MAPPING file. By joining the number of

engines with the operating aircraft hours, the operating engine block hours will be determined. As with 5

above, the number of engine bloc k hours will be scaled by a factor of 52/6 to annualize the value.

3.1.9 Total Fuel Consumption with penalty, where applicable (Mega Tonnes) – This variable will come

directly from the GHG model(s) and represent the gate-t o-gate fuel consumption. The fuel consumption

with penalty includes any fuel burn penalty associat ed with the technology response assumptions (e.g.

MS1, MS2, MS3, where MS3 has a 0 to 0.5% fuel burn penalty)

3.1.10 Total Fuel Consumption without penalty (Mega Tonnes) – This variable will come directly from

the GHG model(s) and represent the gate-to-gate fuel consumption, assuming no fuel burn penalty for any

of the technology responses.

3.1.11 Total LTO NOx Generated (Mega Tonnes) – This variable will come directly from the LAQ

Modellers.

3.1.12 Noise (population exposed): FESG will proceed based on input from WG1 that no noise penalty

is expected even for the MS3 engines that require a cycle change. However, for these engines, which

comprise 10% of the MS3 engines, estimates would need to be made for additional costs that

manufacturers may incur in order to eliminate th e noise penalty caused by the cycle change. WG1's

recommended approach to FESG is to conduct a cost sensitivity study on whether an incremental

development cost of either US$10 million or $100 million (3.3% or 33% of MS3 “typical” cost of

US$300 million provided by WG3) would make a difference in the ranking of the stringency scenarios.

No data is required from MODTF for this sensitivity test.

3.1.13 Lost Revenue – The lost revenue results from an aircra ft payload / range detriment caused by the

incremental fuel burn for aircraft with engines requiring a MS3 technology insertion to meet the NOx

stringency scenario. FESG will estimate the lost reve nue which will require so me additional operational

data from MODTF and choice of financial, airplane payload impact and utilization assumptions by FESG.

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix G



# a) FESG will choose assumptions for the following:

1) Revenue yield ($ per revenue passenger kilo meter and $ per revenue tonne kilometer)

2) Aircraft payload impact ( off loaded pa ssengers or kilograms of cargo per trip)

3) Utilization – percent of trips operating at the maximum take off weight (MTOW) and

maximum range limits, where payload would ha ve to be offloaded for any increase in

mission fuel burn.

b) Additional operational data required fro m MODTF to calculate lost revenue:

1) Operating Aircraft Cycles for impacted aircraft – This data input will be up to 4 values.

Each data input represents the aggregated ai rcraft cycles for a group of the aircraft

impacted by a technology response that incl udes a fuel burn penalty, such as MS3. This

data input should be determined for single-ai sle aircraft powered by large engines and

twin-aisle aircraft powered by the large engi ne group. If the small engine group required

a technology response that included a fuel burn penalty, then similar data would be

required for the small engine group. The airc raft/engine combinations from the Aircraft

Growth and Replacement database which w ill require MS3 technology insertion are

shown in Table G.2 at the end of this paper.

2) For future analyses, there may be a requireme nt to have a further disaggregation of the

data required between passenger and cargo ai rcraft. For CAEP/8, only passenger aircraft

operations were available.

3) To determine the weighted average maximum distance for each subgroup impacted by a

revenue loss due to increased fuel burn (e.g. Single-aisle aircraft powered by the large

engine group), FESG will require a further br eakdown by aircraft / engine combination.

See Table G.2. For each aircraft / engine co mbination, the following data is required:

i. Operating_Aircraft_Cycles – as defined previously

ii. Operating_Engine_Cycles – as defined previously

iii. Max_Distance_(Nautical_Miles) – From the MODTF operations file, extract the

longest route distance flown by each aircraft / engine in Table G.2.

3.2 The FESG NO X 

# Cost Spreadsheet Model was developed to accept inputs of data grouped into

similar categories. For example, the data for each data field listed in 2.1 for a ll small engines requiring a

MS1 technology response would be grouped into the MS 1-SE data category. This data would be required

for selected forecast years. The NO X 

# Cost Spreadsheet Model would interpolate for the intermediate

years. Description of other data requirements:

3.2.1 Forecast years : The above data will be provided for 2006, 2012, 20 16, 2026 and 2036

3.2.2 Data subgroups : For each of the years listed in 2.2.1, th e data will be groupe d into 5 categories

(Note : For 2006 all data will be gr ouped in the UNS category): UNS, Db4SYMS, MS1-SE, MS1-LE,

MS2-SE, MS2-LE, MS3-SE and MS3-LE.

3.2.2.1 UNS – Fleet and operations Unaffected by NOx Stringency

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix G 

# G-4

3.2.2.2 Db4SYMS – Fleet and operations that do not me et a NOx stringency level, but have been

delivered before (b4) the start year of NOx stringenc y. To assist in the calculation of incremental spare

engine requirements and lost asset (resale) value, FESG needs the Db4SYMS category broken down into

small and large engines and by “theoretical” MS1, MS2 or MS3 category, since these engines would have

required a technology response if they were delivered after the implementation year of NOX stringency.

The Db4SYMS sub-fleet will be used in the estimation of the cost of incremental spare engines due to the

loss of engine commonality or interchangeability in some cases from the resulting NOx technology

response

3.2.2.3 MS1-SE – Fleet and operations requiring a MS1 t echnology response for the small engine group.

3.2.2.4 MS1-LE – Fleet and operations requiring a MS1 t echnology response for the large engine group.

3.2.2.5 MS2-SE – Fleet and operations requiring a MS2 t echnology response for the small engine group.

3.2.2.6 MS2-LE – Fleet and operations requiring a MS2 t echnology response for the large engine group.

3.2.2.7 MS3-SE – Fleet and operations requiring a MS3 t echnology response for the small engine group.

3.2.2.8 MS3-LE – Fleet and operations requiring a MS3 t echnology response for the large engine group.

[Note : For the CAEP/8 NO X 

# stringency analysis, there was no requirement for a MS3 technology

response for any of the engines in the small engine category, however, the capability was built into the

model to allow for such a response]

3.3 For each stringency and forecast year, data for each sub-fleet data group (i.e. UNS, Db4SYMS,

MS1-SE, MS1-LE, MS2-SE, MS2-LE, MS3-SE and MS3-LE) can be determined directly by joining the

OPERATION_XX table with the WG3 large and small engine stringency tables.

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix G



# Table G.1

Average Annual Utilization for FESG “Base Case” Forecast

Average Annual Utilization – Number of flights per year

Seat Category 2006 2016 2026 2036

< 20 seats 1,391 1,586 1,843 2,088

20-50 1,618 1,741 1,909 1,977

51-100 1,616 1,814 1,965 2,028

101-150 1,627 1,622 1,643 1,677

151-210 1,395 1,485 1,561 1,599

211-300 849 943 1,110 1,224

301-400 744 774 912 1,144

401-500 758 840 843 1,071

501-600 1,266 924 982 1,036

601-650 1,560 1,229 1,169

World 1,444 1,496 1,559 1,599

Table G.2

Aircraft with engines requiring MS3 Technology insertion

for certain NO X 

# Stringency Options

Engine Group Engine Family Aircraft

Large Engine Group GE90-115B 777-300ER

777-200LR

PW4160 Talon II A330-200

A330-300

Trent 700 A330-200

A330-300

PW4x62 747-400

767-200/200ER

767-300/300ER

Trent 500 A340-500

A340-600

Small Engine Group PW6120A A318

V2500A5 A319

A320

A321

# CAEP/8-IP/14

Appendix G 

# G-6

Table G.3 – CAEP/8 NOx Stringency Scenarios

NOx Stringency

Scenario Small Engines Large Engines

[26.7 kN / 89 kN Foo] 26

, 

# 27 

# OPR 28 

# >30 Slope 29



# 1 -5% / -5% -5% 2

2 -10% / -10% -10% 2.2

3 -10% / -10% -10% 2

4 -5% / -15% -15% 2.2

5 -15% / -15% -15% 2.2

6 -5% / -15% -15% 2

7 -15% / -15% -15% 2

8 -10% / -20% -20% 2.2

9 -15% / -20% -20% 2.2

10 -20% / -20% -20% 2.2



# — END —

26 

# Foo – Thrust rating. For engine emissions purposes, the maxi mum power/thrust available for ta keoff under normal operating cond itions at ISA

(International Standard Atmosphere) sea leve l static conditions without the use of wa ter injection as approved by the certifica ting authority.

Thrust is expressed in kilonewtons (kN).

27 

# Incremental stringency scenarios defined for small engines with thrust ratings (F oo) comprised between 26.7 kN and 89 kN.

28 

# OPR – Overall Engine Pressure Ratio. The engine pressure ratio is defined as the ratio of the me an total pressure at the last compressor

discharge plane of the compressor to the mean total pressure at the compressor entry pl ane, when the engine is developing its t akeoff thrust

rating (in ISA sea-level static conditions).

29 

# Slope of the line of the NOx stringency scenarios at engine pressure ratio (PR) greater than 30.