September 24, 2010

The Honorable Gina McCarthy

Assistant Administrator for Air and Radiation

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Ariel Rios Federal Building

Washington D.C. 20460

Dear Ms. McCarthy:

Thank you for meeting with us on September 7, 2010 to discuss the EPA’s regulation 

regarding uncharged HCFC-22 air conditioning condensing units.

As you requested, attached please find our analysis of the potential scope of this issue, 

including the additional HCFC demand that could be created. Our analysis provides 

estimates of HCFC-22 consumption and greenhouse gas emissions for ten different 

scenarios. In order to provide a broader picture of the residential air conditioning 

market, I have also attached historical shipment data information for residential central 

air conditioners and heat pumps.

I hope that the enclosed information will be helpful to EPA in assessing the potential 

environmental impact resulting from the domestic sale of uncharged HCFC-22 air 

conditioning condensing units. If you need further information or have questions about 

the analysis, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Thank you for your consideration and attention to this matter.

Sincerely,

Karim Amrane

Vice President, Regulatory and Research

Tel: (703) 524-8800 ext.307

Email: kamrane@ahrinet.org

Enclosure: As stated

cc: Drusilla Hufford, EPA
R-22 Condensing Units Analysis

- Annual shipment increase – 1%

Assumptions

- 80% of annual shipment of split air conditioners and heat pumps is for the replacement market

- No servicing

- Average refrigerant charge - 2 lbs/ton

- Average condensing unit cooling capacity - 3 tons

- Average SEER of replacement unit (AC & HP) – 10 SEER

- Average HSPF of replacement HP – 6.8 HSPF

Scenario 1 – 10% of Units Replaced Use R-22

year

Shipment 

Split A/C)

Shipment 

Split HPs

Shipment 

Replacement 

Market 

(AC+HP)

Shipment 

- R-22 

Units 

(AC+HP)

Amount of 

R-22 

Used 

(MT)

Total 

Allocation 

(MT)

% of Total 

Allocation

Cumulative 

Energy 

Increase 

(kWh)

Cumulative 

Operating 

Cost 

Increase ($)

Cumulative 

Primary 

Energy 

Increase 

(quads)

Cumulative 

Emission 

Increase 

(MT 

CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 345,474 940 50,000 2% 349,916,865 39,645,581 0.0036183 209,950

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 348,929 950 45,400 2% 703,332,899 79,687,617 0.0072727 422,000

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 352,418 959 40,700 2% 1,060,283,093 120,130,074 0.0109637 636,170

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 355,942 969 35,900 3% 1,420,802,790 160,976,956 0.0146916 852,482

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 359,502 978 31,100 3% 1,784,927,683 202,232,306 0.0184568 1,070,957

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 363,097 988 27,709 4% 2,152,693,825 243,900,210 0.0222597 1,291,616
Scenario 2 – 20% of Units Replaced Use R-22

year

Shipment 

Split A/C)

Shipment 

Split HPs

Shipment 

Replacement 

Market 

(AC+HP)

Shipment 

- R-22 

Units 

(AC+HP)

Amount of 

R-22 

Used 

(MT)

Total 

Allocation 

(MT)

% of Total 

Allocation

Cumulative 

Energy 

Increase 

(kWh)

Cumulative 

Operating 

Cost 

Increase ($)

Cumulative 

Primary 

Energy 

Increase 

(quads)

Cumulative 

Emission 

Increase 

(MT 

CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 690,948 1,880 50,000 4% 699,833,731 79,291,162 0.0072365 419,900

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 697,858 1,899 45,400 4% 1,406,665,798 159,375,235 0.0145454 843,999

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 704,836 1,918 40,700 5% 2,120,566,187 240,260,149 0.0219274 1,272,340

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 711,885 1,937 35,900 5% 2,841,605,579 321,953,912 0.0293833 1,704,963

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 719,004 1,957 31,100 6% 3,569,855,366 404,464,613 0.0369136 2,141,913

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 726,194 1,976 27,709 7% 4,305,387,650 487,800,421 0.0445193 2,583,233

Scenario 3 – 30% of Units Replaced Use R-22

year

Shipment 

Split A/C)

Shipment 

Split HPs

Shipment 

Replacement 

Market 

(AC+HP)

Shipment 

- R-22 

Units 

(AC+HP)

Amount of 

R-22 

Used 

(MT)

Total 

Allocation 

(MT)

% of Total 

Allocation

Cumulative 

Energy 

Increase 

(kWh)

Cumulative 

Operating 

Cost 

Increase ($)

Cumulative 

Primary 

Energy 

Increase 

(quads)

Cumulative 

Emission 

Increase 

(MT 

CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 1,036,422 2,821 50,000 6% 1,049,750,596 118,936,743 0.0108548 629,850

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 1,046,787 2,849 45,400 6% 2,109,998,698 239,062,852 0.0218182 1,265,999

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 1,057,254 2,877 40,700 7% 3,180,849,280 360,390,223 0.0328912 1,908,510

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 1,067,827 2,906 35,900 8% 4,262,408,369 482,930,868 0.0440749 2,557,445

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 1,078,505 2,935 31,100 9% 5,354,783,049 606,696,919 0.0553704 3,212,870

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 1,089,290 2,965 27,709 11% 6,458,081,475 731,700,631 0.066779 3,874,849
Scenario 4 – 40% of Units Replaced Use R-22

year

Shipment 

Split A/C)

Shipment 

Split HPs

Shipment 

Replacement 

Market 

(AC+HP)

Shipment 

- R-22 

Units 

(AC+HP)

Amount of 

R-22 

Used 

(MT)

Total 

Allocation 

(MT)

% of Total 

Allocation

Cumulative 

Energy 

Increase 

(kWh)

Cumulative 

Operating 

Cost 

Increase ($)

Cumulative 

Primary 

Energy 

Increase 

(quads)

Cumulative 

Emission 

Increase 

(MT 

CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 1,381,897 3,761 50,000 8% 1,399,667,461 158,582,323 0.0144731 839,800

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 1,395,716 3,799 45,400 8% 2,813,331,597 318,750,470 0.0290909 1,687,999

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 1,409,673 3,837 40,700 9% 4,241,132,374 480,520,298 0.0438549 2,544,679

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 1,423,769 3,875 35,900 11% 5,683,211,159 643,907,824 0.0587665 3,409,927

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 1,438,007 3,914 31,100 13% 7,139,710,732 808,929,226 0.0738273 4,283,826

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 1,452,387 3,953 27,709 14% 8,610,775,300 975,600,841 0.0890386 5,166,465

Scenario 5 – 50% of Units Replaced Use R-22

Year

Shipment 

Split A/C)

Shipment 

Split HPs

Shipment 

Replacement 

Market 

(AC+HP)

Shipment 

- R-22 

Units 

(AC+HP)

Amount 

of R-22 

Used 

(MT)

Total

Allocation 

(MT)

% of 

Total 

Allocation

Cumulative 

Energy 

Increase (kWh)

Cumulative 

Operating 

Cost Increase 

($)

Cumulative 

Primary 

Energy 

Increase 

(quads)

Cumulative 

Emission 

Increase 

(MT CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 1,727,371 4,701 50,000 9% 1,749,584,326 198,227,904 0.0180914 1,049,751

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 1,744,644 4,748 45,400 10% 3,516,664,496 398,438,087 0.0363636 2,109,999

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 1,762,091 4,796 40,700 12% 5,301,415,467 600,650,372 0.0548186 3,180,849

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 1,779,712 4,844 35,900 13% 7,104,013,949 804,884,780 0.0734581 4,262,408

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 1,797,509 4,892 31,100 16% 8,924,638,414 1,011,161,532 0.0922841 5,354,783

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 1,815,484 4,941 27,709 18% 10,763,469,125 1,219,501,052 0.1112983 6,458,081
Scenario 6 – 60% of Units Replaced Use R-22

year

Shipment 

Split A/C)

Shipment 

Split HPs

Shipment 

Replacement 

Market 

(AC+HP)

Shipment 

- R-22 

Units 

(AC+HP)

Amount of 

R-22 

Used 

(MT)

Total 

Allocation 

(MT)

% of Total 

Allocation

Cumulative 

Energy 

Increase (kWh)

Cumulative 

Operating 

Cost Increase 

($)

Cumulative 

Primary 

Energy 

Increase 

(quads)

Cumulative 

Emission 

Increase 

(MT 

CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 2,072,845 5,641 50,000 11% 2,099,501,192 237,873,485 0.0217096 1,259,701

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 2,093,573 5,698 45,400 13% 4,219,997,395 478,125,705 0.0436363 2,531,998

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 2,114,509 5,755 40,700 14% 6,361,698,561 720,780,447 0.0657823 3,817,019

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 2,135,654 5,812 35,900 16% 8,524,816,738 965,861,736 0.0881498 5,114,890

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 2,157,011 5,871 31,100 19% 10,709,566,097 1,213,393,839 0.1107409 6,425,740

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 2,178,581 5,929 27,709 21% 12,916,162,950 1,463,401,262 0.1335579 7,749,698

Scenario 7 – 70% of Units Replaced Use R-22

year

Shipment 

Split A/C)

Shipment 

Split HPs

Shipment 

Replacement 

Market 

(AC+HP)

Shipment 

- R-22 

Units 

(AC+HP)

Amount of 

R-22 

Used 

(MT)

Total 

Allocation 

(MT)

% of Total 

Allocation

Cumulative 

Energy 

Increase (kWh)

Cumulative 

Operating 

Cost Increase 

($)

Cumulative 

Primary 

Energy 

Increase 

(quads)

Cumulative 

Emission 

Increase 

(MT 

CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 2,418,319 6,582 50,000 13% 2,449,418,057 277,519,066 0.0253279 1,469,651

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 2,442,502 6,648 45,400 15% 4,923,330,295 557,813,322 0.0509091 2,953,998

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 2,466,927 6,714 40,700 16% 7,421,981,654 840,910,521 0.076746 4,453,189

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 2,491,596 6,781 35,900 19% 9,945,619,528 1,126,838,693 0.1028414 5,967,372

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 2,516,512 6,849 31,100 22% 12,494,493,780 1,415,626,145 0.1291977 7,496,696

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 2,541,678 6,917 27,709 25% 15,068,856,775 1,707,301,473 0.1558176 9,041,314
Scenario 8 – 80% of Units Replaced Use R-22

Year

Shipment 

Split A/C)

Shipment 

Split HPs

Shipment 

Replacement 

Market 

(AC+HP)

Shipment 

- R-22 

Units 

(AC+HP)

Amount of 

R-22 

Used 

(MT)

Total 

Allocation 

(MT)

% of Total 

Allocation

Cumulative 

Energy 

Increase (kWh)

Cumulative 

Operating 

Cost Increase 

($)

Cumulative 

Primary 

Energy 

Increase 

(quads)

Cumulative 

Emission 

Increase 

(MT CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 2,763,793 7,522 50,000 15% 2,799,334,922 317,164,647 0.0289462 1,679,601

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 2,791,431 7,597 45,400 17% 5,626,663,194 637,500,940 0.0581818 3,375,998

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 2,819,345 7,673 40,700 19% 8,482,264,748 961,040,596 0.0877098 5,089,359

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 2,847,539 7,750 35,900 22% 11,366,422,318 1,287,815,649 0.117533 6,819,853

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 2,876,014 7,827 31,100 25% 14,279,421,463 1,617,858,452 0.1476545 8,567,653

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 2,904,774 7,906 27,709 29% 17,221,550,600 1,951,201,683 0.1780772 10,332,930

Scenario 9 – 90% of Units Replaced Use R-22

year

Shipment 

Split A/C)

Shipment 

Split HPs

Shipment 

Replacement 

Market 

(AC+HP)

Shipment 

- R-22 

Units 

(AC+HP)

Amount of 

R-22 

Used 

(MT)

Total 

Allocation 

(MT)

% of Total 

Allocation

Cumulative 

Energy

Increase (kWh)

Cumulative 

Operating 

Cost Increase 

($)

Cumulative 

Primary 

Energy 

Increase 

(quads)

Cumulative 

Emission 

Increase 

(MT 

CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 3,109,267 8,462 50,000 17% 3,149,251,788 356,810,228 0.0325644 1,889,551

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 3,140,360 8,547 45,400 19% 6,329,996,093 717,188,557 0.0654545 3,797,998

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 3,171,763 8,632 40,700 21% 9,542,547,841 1,081,170,670 0.0986735 5,725,529

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 3,203,481 8,719 35,900 24% 12,787,225,107 1,448,792,605 0.1322246 7,672,335

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 3,235,516 8,806 31,100 28% 16,064,349,146 1,820,090,758 0.1661113 9,638,609

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 3,267,871 8,894 27,709 32% 19,374,244,425 2,195,101,893 0.2003369 11,624,547
Scenario 10 – 100% of Units Replaced Use R-22

Year

Shipment 

Split A/C)

Shipment 

Split HPs

Shipment 

Replacement 

Market 

(AC+HP)

Shipment 

- R-22 

Units 

(AC+HP)

Amount of 

R-22 

Used 

(MT)

Total 

Allocation 

(MT)

% of Total 

Allocation

Cumulative 

Energy 

Increase (kWh)

Cumulative 

Operating 

Cost Increase 

($)

Cumulative 

Primary 

Energy 

Increase 

(quads)

Cumulative 

Emission 

Increase 

(MT 

CO2E)

2010 2,915,642 1,402,785 3,454,741 3,454,741 9,402 50,000 19% 3,499,168,653 396,455,808 0.0361827 2,099,501

2011 2,944,798 1,416,813 3,489,289 3,489,289 9,496 45,400 21% 7,033,328,992 796,876,175 0.0727272 4,219,997

2012 2,974,246 1,430,981 3,524,182 3,524,182 9,591 40,700 24% 10,602,830,935 1,201,300,745 0.1096372 6,361,699

2013 3,003,989 1,445,291 3,559,423 3,559,423 9,687 35,900 27% 14,208,027,897 1,609,769,561 0.1469163 8,524,817

2014 3,034,028 1,459,744 3,595,018 3,595,018 9,784 31,100 31% 17,849,276,829 2,022,323,065 0.1845681 10,709,566

2015 3,064,369 1,474,341 3,630,968 3,630,968 9,882 27,709 36% 21,526,938,250 2,439,002,104 0.2225965 12,916,163
Historical Shipment Data for Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

Year

Shipment 

A/C + HPs

1990

 

3,320,960 

1991

 

3,404,836 

1992

 

3,331,673 

1993

 

3,644,539 

1994

 

4,416,864 

1995

 

4,558,610 

1996

 

5,128,259 

1997

 

4,818,281 

1998

 

5,582,492 

1999

 

5,936,711 

2000

 

5,948,954 

2001

 

5,636,247 

2002

 

6,154,920 

2003

 

6,194,924 

2004

 

6,748,563 

2005

 

7,939,397 

2006

 

6,365,782 

2007

 

5,688,759 

2008

 

5,199,995 

2009

 

4,672,025