Geographically-Based Hy

Demand & Infrastructure 

Scenario Analysis

Margo Melendez

May 17, 2007

This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherw

NREL/PR-540-41535Presented at the 2007 DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation on May 
Overview

• Project start: October 2004• Project end: May 2007• Percent complete: 100%

• Tech Va

– Hydrog

infrastr

• Systems 

– Future 

• Total Funding: $605K

– FY 2005: $200K– FY 2006: $180K– FY 2007: $225K

Budget

Timeline Barri

• DTI, ORN

Coll
Objectives

FY 2007• Identify best infrastructure scenarios to m

scenarios

• Identify implementation issuesFY 2006• Quantify hydrogen demand in the U.S.• Estimate costs to support infrastructure to 

hydrogen demand

FY 2005• Quantify and locate a minimal interstate-b

infrastructure
Approach

• Using results from FY 2005 and FY 2

analyses

– Use GIS techniques to site infrastructure– Evaluate benefits and challenges to vari– Develop a roll-out strategy for infrastruct
Objective/Overview

Lay out several scenarios for in

deployment in the 2012-2025 

2012-2015: Initial introduct2016-2019: Targeted regio2020-2025: Inter-regional e
Approach

• Identify infrastructure to support 

scenarios in the 2015-2025 timef

– Based on HyTrans estimates for st

given time period

• Scenario 2: 5M vehicles, 4,000 refue

2025

• Scenario 3: 10M vehicles, 8,000 refu

2025

– Emphasis on urban deployment to 

anticipated hydrogen demand
Baseline H2 Demand R

20 X 20 

mile grid
Applied Lessons Lear

Participants

• Vehicle manufacturers• Fuel providers • Policy makers• Fleet operators• Clean Cities coordinators• Research & development 

participants

• Trade associations• DOE participants

Relevant Outcomes to • Fleets sustain fuel ma

sustain vehicle market

• Coordination is vital

– Infrastructure and ve

• Incentives and manda

– Right ones– Right time

• Backing from agencies 

– Fire, safety, permittin

• Local level efforts are 

– Public education– Codes and standard

Lessons learned feedback gathered in Golden, C
Top Urban Areas

Lighthouse Concept Ta

• Los Angeles/Riverside/Orange 

County/San Diego

• New York/Northern NJ/Long 

Island

• San Francisco/Oakland/San 

Jose/Sacramento/Yolo

• Boston/Worcester/Lawrence• Washington/Baltimore• Chicago/Gary/Kenosha• Detroit/Ann Arbor/Flint

• Dallas/• Atlanta• Housto• St. Lou• Minnea• Philade

Atlant

• Phoeni• Denver

Urban areas = F (H2 demand, population, 
Regional Deployment Ap
Deployment Scenar

Infrastructure Rollo

2012-2015 2016-2020 

Scenario 1

Limited Cities

<100 Stations ~200 Stations 

Scenario 2

All 20 Cities

<100 Stations ~1,200 Station

Scenario 3

All 20 Cities

<100 Stations ~1,400 Station

4,000 stations represents ~7% of existing station

8,000 stations represents ~15% of existing station
Infrastructure Rollo

Urban Area 2012-2015 Stations 2016-2019 Stations

Scen

2020-202

NYLASan Fran/SacramentoBostonDetroitChicagoDallasAtlantaPhiladelphiaSeattlePortlandHoustonDenverMinneapolisWashingtonMiamiOrlandoSt. LouisPhoenixClevelandTotal

20 200 540 400 7

78

127

90

135

92745827

122321112

60

1282

38
Infrastructure Strate

2012-2015

Initial introduction

Onsite reforming & LH

2

Located at retail centers

Very high H

2 demand

2

Targ

Onsite 

High H

2 

Goo

2020-2025

Regional expansion

Onsite and pipeline req’d

Good H

2 demand (LA/NY)

All demand considered
Infrastructure Feasibility 

• Examined initial targeted gas 

stations in LA, NY, Dallas

– Best demand areas– Major civic airports – Traffic above 200,000 veh per day – Retail center– 3,000+ registered vehicles – Major and secondary roads– Balanced coverage

• Identified land area at station 

compared to required reforming or delivered liquid H

2 space

City Feasi

LA

5 

NY

4 

Dallas

7 

Should we consider pipeline sooner?
Infrastructure Rollo

Urban Area 2012-2015 Stations

2016-2019 

Stations

Scenario 2

2020-2025 Sta

NY 20 200 554 

LA 40 400 751 

San Fran/Sacramento 78 181 

Boston 127 296 

Detroit 90 210 

Chicago 135 316 

Dallas 92 215 

Atlanta 74 173 Philadelphia 58 136 Seattle 27 63 

Portland 55 

Houston 192 

Denver 88 

Minneapolis 98 Washington 265 

Miami 50 

Orlando 35 St. Louis 85 Phoenix 99 Cleveland 83 Total 60 1282 3895 

2012-2015: Initial introduction

Onsite reforming & LH

2 focus

Located at retail centers

Very high H

2 demand
2012-2015: Initial Introd

Did you know...California and the northeast region combinerepresent 33% of U.S. gasoline consumptio
2012-2015: Initial Introduc

A

Did you know...Hypermarketers represent 2%-3% of gasstations and 7.7% of fuel sales in 2005.
2012-2015: Initial Introduc
Infrastructure Rollo

Urban Area 2012-2015 Stations

2016-2019 

Stations

Scenario 2

2020-2025 Sta

NY 20 200 554 

LA 40 400 751 

San Fran/Sacramento 78 181 

Boston 127 296 

Detroit 90 210 

Chicago 135 316 

Dallas 92 215 

Atlanta 74 173 Philadelphia 58 136 Seattle 27 63 

Portland 55 

Houston 192 

Denver 88 

Minneapolis 98 Washington 265 

Miami 50 

Orlando 35 St. Louis 85 

Phoenix 99 Cleveland 83 Total 60 1282 3895 

2016-2019: Targeted growth

Onsite reforming & LH

2 focus

High H

2 demand (LA/NY)

Good H

2 demand
2016-2019: Targeted Gr

Did you know...The central region represents roughly 10% of U.S. gasoline consumption.
2016-2019: Targeted Grow

A

Did you know...Targeted deployment strategies are not uncommon. MN has an initiative for 1,800 E85 stations by 2010 (294 today).
2016-2019: Targeted Grow
2016-2019: Targeted Growt
Infrastructure Rollo

Urban Area 2012-2015 Stations

2016-2019 

Stations

Scenario 2

2020-2025 Sta

NY 20 200 554 

LA 40 400 751 

San Fran/Sacramento 78 181 Boston 127 296 

Detroit 90 210 Chicago 135 316 Dallas 92 215 Atlanta 74 173 Philadelphia 58 136 Seattle 27 63 

Portland 55 Houston 192 

Denver 88 

Minneapolis 98 Washington 265 

Miami 50 

Orlando 35 St. Louis 85 

Phoenix 99 Cleveland 83 Total 60 1282 3895 

2020-2025: Inter-regional expansion

Pipelines become critical

Good H

2 demand (LA/NY)

All demand considered
2020-2025: Inter-Regional E

Did you know...Central region represents 7% of U.S. vehicl
2020-2025: Inter-Regional Exp

Did you know...Penetration into gasoline stations:

Diesel stations: ~42% Ethanol stations: ~0.6%

A
2020-2025: Inter-Regional Ex
2020-2025: Inter-Regional E

Denver and Minneap

Accessibility Population

3 Miles 82%5 Miles 91%

10 Miles 96%
2021-2025: Widespread Ut

Scenario 3

• 15%+ of existing gasoline stations in k• Connecting stations enable inter-regio• Focus on 

pipeline distribution

4,000 stations in scenario 28,000 stations in scenario 3

~85 interconnect stations

~200 other interstate stations
• Each geographic location has dis

properties that make infrastructur

• Strategically placing stations max

coverage early

• Rollouts are very aggressive, but 

15% there is adequate coverage (based on 3, 5, and 10 mile trave

Project Summary