HyDS Modeling Environ

Keith Parks

National Renewable Ener

May 18th, 2005

This presentation does not contain any proprietary or confidential informat

NREL/PR-560-41725Presented at the 2006 DOE Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure Technologies Program Annual Merit Review in Washington, D.C., May 16-19, 2006. 
Overview

Timeline Barr

3⁄4 Infrastru3⁄4 Scenario 3⁄4 System 

• Start – May 2005 • Finish – October 2006• 80% Complete

• Funding for FY06

– 100K

Budget

• Worked w

ORNL, a

Part
Objectives

• GIS-Based, Supply-Side Tr

Analysis

– Cost out pathway for cities with– Determine the infrastructure lay

different production/delivery cho

– Consider electricity sector impa

contributions to hydrogen econo
Approach

GIS

Scenario Model

Production

Hydrogen Pathway Optimizer (Go Pipes!)

Natural Gas Cost 

HyDS

NG Feedback

Electricity Sector Costs

Electricity Based H2Costs 

H2A

Regional Supply Curve

INPUTS + OPTIMIZATION =

Regional Network Map

OUTPUTS

*202

• Detail to City Level (Population, Vehicles, Area)• Existing H2 Facilities
Inputs – H2A Product

• Production is the sum of fixed and variable co• Costs change with fuel forecast and H2A lear

assumptions

• Min/Max Capacities enforced

• Production Technologies

– Central/Distributed SMR– Central Coal gasification– Central Biomass 

gasification

– Wind/electrolysis – Distributed electrolysis– Nuclear

• Dynamic 

Productio

– Update– Reruns – Automa

Costs
Inputs – H2A Scenario 

• Derived equation for each compo

liquefier, compressed truck, pipel

– All components influenced primarily b

city area, or both

– Accuracy within $0.05 for most scena

>99% for all components)

– Equation does less well at extremes

• at very low penetrations in small cities• very large cities at high penetrations

• Worked with DTI, ORNL, and AN

H2A Scenario Model
Pathway Optimizat
Putting It Together

• Modified Minimum Spanning Tree Algorithm• Considers Production and Transportation Econo• GIS Output – Intuitive Results
Regional Supply Cu

• Delivered Cost• Color Coded by Production Typ

Region Supply Curve for Chicago/Detroit Region* 

$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00

0 200 400 600 800 

cumulative kg/day (000s)

$/kg

Coal GasifiDistributed 

*2026 w / $12.00 NG; 15% Penetration
Natural Gas Elastic

• Based on NEMS Forecasts• Consistency between all co
What Can We Answe

• What are the hydrogen delivered cost

region?

– Least cost or for a particular technology– Quickly compares/contrasts technologies

• How does development of a hydrogen 

effect the capacity expansion of the esector?

Liquid Delivery

Region Supply Curve for Chicago/Detroit Region*

$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

cumulative kg/day (000s)

$/kg

Coal GasificationDistributed SMR

Pipeline 

Region Supply Curve for 

$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00

0 200 400 

cumu

$/kg

*2026 w / $12.00 NG; 15% Penetration
Liquid Delivery Layo
Pipeline Delivery Lay
Larger Type for Delivery S

Pipelin

Region Supply Curve f

$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00

0 200 400 

cum

$/kg

*2026 w / $12.00 NG; 15% Penetration

Liquid Delivery

Region Supply Curve for Chicago/Detroit Region*

$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

cumulative kg/day (000s)

$/kg

Coal GasificationDistributed SMR

Liquid Delivery
Future Work

• Running scenarios for Final 

FY06 Report due July 2006

– AEO 2006 Feedstock Price Sc– Natural Gas Price Sensitivity– Demand Sensitivity– Assumptions and Findings
Summary of the 

Strengths/Weakness

• Strengths

– Spatial; addresses urban/rural inte– Consistency through integration of 

price paths

– Fast, simple operation for static sce– Electricity sector integration 

• Weaknesses

– No Foresight/Hindsight (ie Static M– No demand side component – mus
Publications and Presen

FPITT Review - Oct 2005Annual Review 2005 (HyDS)Annual Review 2006 
Critical Assumptions and 

• Inherits all H2A Production a

Scenario Model Assumptions

• Uses the “Urbanized Area” d

city boundaries

• Competes three production 

technologies at a time

• Always competes distributed