Macro-System Mod

System Mod

Mark Ruth (NREL/SI)

Keith Vanderveen (SNL)

This presentation does not contain any proprietary or confid

Proje

NREL/PR-840-41723Presented at the 2006 DOE Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure TechnoAnnual Merit Review in Washington, D.C., May 16-19, 2006. 
Overview

Timeline

• Start date: Feb 2005• Completion: Sept 2010• Percent complete: 15%

Budget

• Total funding:

– 100% DOE funded

• FY05 funding: 

– $170K NREL/SIO– $50K Sandia NL

• FY06 funding

– $276K NREL/SIO– $280K Sandia NL– $60K other national lab work

Bar

• Lack of consist

assumptions a

• Lack of a Macr

(C)

• Stove-piped/sil

capabilities (D)

Part

• Sandia Nationa

(computational 

• NREL (inclusio

Production & wanalysis valida

• ANL (inclusion 

GREET & well-validation)

• Others to be id
Project Objectives

• Overall objectives

– Develop a macro-system model (MSM) a

• Performing rapid cross-cutting analysis

– Utilize and link other models– Improve consistency between models

• Supporting decisions regarding programm

and focus of funding

• Supporting estimates of program outputs 

• 2005/2006 objectives

– Define analysis issues / model requireme– Evaluate alternatives for the MSM structu

an approach for development

– Initial integration of models– Initial analysis: Comparison of hydrogen 

production/delivery pathways

– Begin validation
MSM Development Appr

I. Define Requirements II. Evaluate Alternatives 

List issues 

the MSM 

should 

address

Record 

requirements for 

the MSM

Determine 

features 

the MSM 

needs

Gather 

Information on 

Existing Models

Evaluate 

Relative to

Requirements

Develop to

Fill Gap

Use with

Modification

Use as Is

Don’t Use

Define

Model

Architecture 

Look up Tables

Equations

Assumptions

Inputs

Functions

Interfaces

Requirements

Input from Analysts Model
Progress: Analysis Issue Ca
Progress: High Priority Is
Progress: Initial Analysis 
Progress: Evaluation of Alte

Hydrogen 

Production 

Models

Refinery Model

Consumer 

Demand Models

Fuel Cell Cost 

Models

Se

V

Environme

Performan

Model

Distribution 

Location 

Models

Distribution 

Cost Models

Hydrogen 

Production 

Models

Refinery Model

Consumer 

Demand Models

Fuel Cell Cost 

Models

Se

V

Environme

Performan

Model

Distribution 

Location 

Models

Distribution 

Cost Models

• Option 1: A new model could be built that captur

from all other models and the interactions betwee

• Option 2: Model interactions could be defined an

between them could be built
Progress: Selected MSM Ap

Federated Object Model (FOM) –capable of integrating and utilizing existing and emerging component models (federates) to the extent possible

Standard inputdocumented dabe shared betwa single interfa

Hydrogen 

Production 

Models

Refinery Model

Consumer 

Demand Models

Fu

Enviro

Perfo

M

Distribution 

Location 

Models

Distribution 

Cost Models
FOM Architecture

• Translators and interface currently in a single • Java/COM is used to transfer information into 
Progress: Initial Model Int

• Information 

be transferidentified

• A linking in

been devel

• Sandia has 

Java/COM transfer dalinking sprethe models 

• The Java/C

also launchin models

• Links are b

by model d

User 

Interface

H2A 

Production HDSAM

GREET

Currently 

Linking
Preliminary Results

Hydrogen Produced In Central Plant and Transported as Liquid via Truck

41,000 Btu Electricity 

1,000 Btu Diesel 

278,000 Btu Biomass

0

6,000 Btu Electricity Hydrogen Gas 

0 127,000 Btu 

0

157,000 Btu Energy Lost 11,000 Btu 42,

HydrogenLost

Case DYear: 2HydrogCentraWoody SequeTransp

Profited Cost of H2 at Pump ($/GGE) 5.23

Well-to-Wheels Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mile)

-5

WTP Emissions (g CO2 Equivalent / GGE fuel available): 

-1

7,133 Production Process Energy Efficiency 45%

Well-to-Wheels Petroleum Energy Use (Btu/mile) 206 Pathway Efficiency 35%

Well-to-Wheels Total Energy Use (Btu/mile)

Central Production Liquification & Transport 

C

Pathway Well-to-Wheel

Do not cite: Results shown are preliminary and require validare only intended to be examples of the type of results the M
Preliminary Results

0

50,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000

Biomass without

Sequestration

Coal with Sequestration Coal without

Sequestration

Natural Gas with

Sequestration

Pathway Energy Requirements (Btu / GGE)

Pathway Diesel Use (Btu / GGE)Pathway Nat Gas Use (Btu / GGE)Pathway Electricity Use (Btu / GGE)Pathway Coal Use (Btu / GGE)Pathway Biomass Use (Btu / GGE)

Energy Sources for Hydrogen P

Do not cite: Results shown are preliminary and require validare only intended to be examples of the type of results the M
Preliminary Results

0 50 100 150 

Biomass without Sequestration

Coal with Sequestration

Coal without Sequestration

Natural Gas with Sequestration

Natural Gas without Sequestration

WTW Petroleum Energy Use (Btu / mile)

Petroleum Requirements for H2 

Do not cite: Results shown are preliminary and require validare only intended to be examples of the type of results the M
Approach: Validation of th

• Discussions with model developers

– Determine that parameters are being add– Verify that the mapping of links between 

correct

• Comparison to other analyses

– Explain differences between results whe

different

• Analysis community symposiums

– Presentations by analysts– Discussions of methodology– Develop consensus on proper modeling 

each analysis issue
Future Work

FY06 

First version of MSM

FY07 FY08 FY09

Transportation sector / consumer model

Stoc

Include electric

• First version of the MSM (H2A Production, HDSAM, GR

– Validation of the MSM– Initial analysis of production/delivery pathways (Septembe

– Create a friendly user-interface for the MSM– Make MSM available on password protected internet site (S

• Integrate transportation sector / consumer models into 

– Determine next set of issues that need to be addressed

– Add of temporal and spatial aspects to the MSM– Include either HyDS or HyTrans (April 30, 2007)– Include the model not chosen previously (April 30, 2008)– Review transition strategies using the MSM (January 31, 2

• Include stationary electrical generation and infrastruct

hydrogen economy (February 28, 2010)

• Include stochastic modeling capability (August 31, 201
Summary

• The MSM is being built to address pr

analysis issues

• The Federated Object Model approac

used to develop the MSM

• H2A Production, HDSAM, and GREET 

linked in the initial version of the MS

• Preliminary results have been genera• Validation of the MSM and developm

interface are underway
Questions
Supplemental Slides

• Responses to previous year reviewe

comments

– Not reviewed previously

• Hydrogen safety

– This is a modeling effort. There are no h

hazards directly associated with it.

• Publications and presentations

– There have been no publications on this 

– There have been no presentations outsid

program
Role in EERE Modeling D

Production 

Storag

Delive

Engineering 

Demand

Supply

Market Model Domain

Foundation for Maintaining

the Integrated Baseline 

Econo

Mark

Model

Analy

Production Storage Delivery Conversion 

Application

Cost

Work

Scope Schedule

Cost

Work

Scope Schedule

Cost

Work

Scope Schedule

Cost

Work

Scope Schedule

Cost

Work

Scope Schedule

DOE Hydrogen Program Model Domain

Programmatic

Baselining 

& Modeling

Systems Systems Integration Integration

Role

• Macro-system model will simulate system p

enable evaluation of components/interfaces level perspective