Dr. Dan E. Arvizu

Director, National Renewable Energy Labo

Meeting the Renewable Energy 

What Will it Take to Reach So

Ultimate Potential

May 8, 2006

Presented at the 2006 IEEE 4th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conv

NREL/PR-100-40011
World Energy Supply 

the Role of Renewable E

Source: OECD/IEA, 2004
Electricity Outlook: 2001

Electricity Outlook: 2001

Source: International Energy Outlook 20

03, Table A9

Central/South 

America

782 BKh

1,577 BKh

Middle East/

Africa

1,000 BKh

2,633 BKH

Developing

Asia

3,103 BKh6,604 BKh

Western

Europe

2,540 BKh3,708 BKh

3.3%

EasFor

1,762,64

North

America

4,293 BKh6,628 BKh

1.8%

3.0%

1.6% 2

3.7%

• Total annual average world electricity growth - 2.4% fro• Growth rates in transitioning economies higher than de• Natural gas and coal will be near-term fuels of choice f• Distributed generation and renewable energy will offer 

74% increase
Magnitude of Challenge R

Global Action and a Change in 

Magnitude of Challenge Re

Global Action and a Change in 
Magnitude of Challenge R

Global Action and a Change in 

Magnitude of Challenge Re

Global Action and a Change in 
Getting There Involve

Technologies

Reducing

Risk

Reducing

Risk

M

M

Policies 
PV is a $10B+ industry and a $1B venture c

PV is a $10B+ industry and a $1B venture c

Renewable Energy is G

Energy-Tech InvestmeVenture Capital

Renewable Energy Annual Growth Rates

Source: Nth Power LLC
Worldwide PV Shipm

Source: Paul Maycock, PV News, February/March 2005.
Distributed generation is the immediat

. . . peak power

California 
Renewable Energy Electricity 

Costs as Percentage of 198

Historical and Projected

Renewable Energy Electricity 

Costs as Percentage of 1980 

Historical and Projected

Source: NREL 2005, 2002
CALIFORNIA

Policy Stimulates markets

Federal, state, and local governments are th
Is Policy ALL We Need
Module Module

Inverter Inverter

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Installation,

Engineering

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Mounting,

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Module Module

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Installation,

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Installation,

Engineering

Mounting,

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Mounting,

Electrical

Focus on 
PV Module Production Experience (or “L

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
PV Module Production Experience (or “L

1st Generation TechnoCrystalline Silicon

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers Improved processingImproved performance

Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers Improved processingImproved performance

PV Module Production Experience (or “L

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers Improved processingImproved performance

Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers Improved processingImproved performance

PV Module Production Experience (or “L

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers (<100 μm)Improved processingImproved performance (>

Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers (<100 μm)Improved processingImproved performance (>

PV Module Production Experience (or “L

Disruptive, advanced 1st & 2nd generation

Disruptive, advanced 1st 

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers (<100 μm)Improved processingImproved performance (>

Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers (<100 μm)Improved processingImproved performance (>

PV Module Production Experience (or “L

Disruptive, advanced 1st & 2nd generation

Disruptive, advanced 1st 

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
PV Module Production Experience (or “L

Disruptive I2nd Generation Thin films Concentrators Organics . . .

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
PV Module Production Experience (or “L

Disruptive I 2nd Generation Thin films ConcentratorsOrganics . . .

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
Disruptive II3rd Gen and beyondQuantum dotsNanotechnologyMulti-multi-junctionsThermophotonics, voltaicsIntermediate band . . .

70%

60%

PV Module Production Experience (or “L

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1 Efficienc

Shockley-

(40% ... 5

EfficiencShockley-

(40% ... 5

DOE is the STEWARDR&DEnsures technology ownership, enables growth, n
IndustryGuided

R&D

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R&D

1st and 2nd Generation PV

Applied Science & EngineeringFundamental Science SupportNational Laboratory and University Partners

Short Term

Short Term
Ne

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IndustryGuided

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National Laboratory-Led

Device, Process, and Reliability

Innovation

National Laboratory-Led

Device, Process, and Reliability

Innovation

1st and 2nd Generation PV

Applied Science & EngineeringFundamental Science SupportNational Laboratory and University Partners

Short Term

Short Term
Long Term

Ne

M

Ne

M

Industry- Guided R&D Industry- Guided R&D

National Laboratory-Led Device, Process, and Reliability Innovation National Laboratory-Led Device, Process, and Reliability Innovation

University and

National Laboratory

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University and

National Laboratory

Discovery & Innovation

3rd Generatio

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1st and 2nd Generation PV

Applied Science & EngineeringFundamental Science SupportNational Laboratory and University Partners

Short Term Short Term
Cornerstone:

Science & Technology Facility 

Cornerstone:Science & Technology Facility 

PartnSC NaUniversDiscovfor su

SC NanDiscov

Closing the key gaps:•Time

between concept & consumer use

from discovery to industry access

delays in re-doing previous 

knowledge (data mining . . .)

Closing the key gaps:•Time

between concept & consumer use

from discovery to industry access

delays in re-doing previous 

knowledge (data mining . . .)

Bridging fundamental 

and applied research

Bridging fundamental 

and applied research

L

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Ne

M

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IndustryGuided

R&D

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Clos• Per

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PowerLight PowerGuard® Rooftop System, 

536 kW, Toyota Motor Corp., Torrance, CA

®

Shell Solar at Semitropic Water Storage Dist.980 kW, single-axis tracking, Wasco, CA 

Shell Solar at Semitropic Water Storage Dist.980 kW, single-axis tracking, Wasco, CA 

WorldWater & Power, Irrigation System267 kW, Seley Ranches, CA

WorldWater & Power, Irrigation System267 kW, Seley Ranches, CA

SuSoOro

Sun 

Shell Solar, “Sunspot Bürstadt”Grid tied, 5MW, Bürstadt, Germ

Shell Solar, “Sunspot Bürstadt”

RidgeVineyardsPV Rooftop65 kW, CA

RidgeVineyardsPV Rooftop65 kW, CA

RWE Schott Stillwell Avenue SubwStation, PV Canopy Roof, 250,000 kWh/yr, Brooklyn, NY

RWE Schott Stillwell Avenue SubwStation, PV Canopy Roof, 250,000 

WorldWater & Power and Alternity PowerAtlantic County Wastewater TreatmentPlant, 8 MW solar-wind hybrid, NJ

Powerlight, Bavarian community,6.3 MW, single-axis tracking, Mühlhausen, Germany
The ultimate test of the human conscience 

may be the willingness to do something today for future generations whose words of thanks will not be heard.

-Senator Gaylord Nelson, founder of Earth Day
The U.S. Department of Energy’s

National Renewable Energy www.nrel.gov

The U.S. Department of Energy’sNational Renewable Energy www.nrel.gov

Go

G