**Technology Type 2008**  **2009 2010**  **2011 2012**  **2013 2014** 

**Conventional Vehicles 1/** Gasoline ICE Vehicles 2551.22553.92562.72551.32554.12553.22549.1 TDI Diesel ICE 37.6 37.4 38 40.8 45.6 51.2 56.9
**Alternative-Fuel Vehicles 1/** Ethanol-Flex Fuel ICE 84.9 96.6 110.6 135.9 170.3 208.1 245 100 Mile Electric Vehicle 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 200 Mile Electric Vehicle 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Plug-in 10 Gasoline Hybrid 0 0 0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 Plug-in 40 Gasoline Hybrid 0 0 0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1 Electric-Diesel Hybrid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electric-Gasoline Hybrid 12.8 15.8 19.2 23.6 29 34.8 40.6 Compressed Natural Gas ICE 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Compressed Natural Gas Bi-fuel 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ICE 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Liquefied Petroleum Gases Bi-fuel 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Fuel Cell Gasoline 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fuel Cell Methanol 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fuel Cell Hydrogen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

**VMT Equation Components** Total VMT (billion miles) 2689.82706.92733.6 27552803.12852.22897.6 VMT/Licensed Driver (thousand miles) 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.3 Licensed Drivers (million) 205.1 206.6 208.8 211 213.1 215.1 217.2

**Price Effects**
Motor Gasoline Price (1987 $/million Btu) 15.99 11.39 13.07 13.7 13.78 14.53 14.95 Fleet Miles per Gallon 20.81 20.95 21.1 21.3 21.55 21.83 22.13
Real Cost of Driving per Mile (1987 cents) 12.934 9.07 10.285 10.6410.57711.00711.164 Point Price Elasticity -0.091 -0.065 -0.073 -0.076 -0.075 -0.078 -0.078

Btu = British thermal units. - - = Not applicable. Sources: 2008 and 2009 values derived using: Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2008 (Washington, DC, April 2010); and 

### Light-Duty Vehicle Miles Traveled by Technology Type, Reference case **(billion miles, unless otherwise noted)**

1/ Includes personal and fleet vehicles. Includes both cars and light trucks. VMT = Vehicle miles traveled. ICE = Internal combustion engine.U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System.

Projections: EIA, AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System.**2015 2016**  **2017 2018**  **2019 2020**  **2021 2022**  **2023 2024**  **2025 2026** 

2547.82552.42553.32552.92553.22559.32569.42577.32588.72599.22614.42630.6 62.7 68.5 74.2 79.6 84.9 90.3 95.9 101.3 106.7 112 117.6 123.2

282.2 320.2 355.2 388.4 420.1 451.5 483.2 510.7 537.2 560.4 584.1 607 2.1 2.7 3.3 4 4.6 5.4 6.3 7.3 8.4 9.4 10.6 11.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.1 5 6.1 7.4 8.9 10.9 13.1 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.5 4.2 5.1 6 7 7.9 9 10 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 47.1 53.8 60.8 67.8 74.7 81.7 88.8 95.7 102.6 109.4 116.3 123 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

2947.13003.53053.93100.9 31473199.53256.63307.83361.63411.33467.33523.6 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.9 14 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 219.2 221.3 223.6 225.8 228 230.2 232.5 234.7 237 239.3 241.5 243.8

15.34 15.56 15.95 16.2 16.42 16.63 16.68 17.02 17.07 17.33 17.42 17.55 22.47 22.85 23.25 23.66 24.08 24.5 24.92 25.33 25.72 26.08 26.44 26.77

11.277 11.239 11.31 11.276 11.22 11.15 10.99711.039 10.902 10.91610.82710.768 -0.078 -0.077 -0.077 -0.077 -0.076 -0.075 -0.073 -0.073 -0.072 -0.071 -0.07 -0.069**2027 2028**  **2029 2030**  **2031 2032**  **2033 2034**  **2035 Growth Rate (2009-2035)** 

2647.62668.22687.42714.12740.12765.12789.92814.72839.3 0.40% 128.8 134.6 140.3 146.4 152.4 158.4 164.5 170.8 177.6 6.20%

627.5 647.3 663.5 681.9 698.4 713.5 727.1 739.4 753.1 8.20% 13.1 14.4 15.7 17 18.3 19.6 20.9 22.3 23.8 18.40% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.40% 15.5 18.2 21.2 24.3 27.5 30.7 34 37.2 40.5- - 11.1 12.3 13.4 14.5 15.7 16.8 17.9 19.1 20.3- - 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.8 5.3 5.9- - 129.7 136.4 142.9 149.5 155.8 161.8 167.5 173 178.3 9.80% 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.30% 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.80% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.20% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -8.70% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0- - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0- - 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4- -

3578.73637.33690.83754.93815.73874.13930.73986.24043.2 1.60% 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15 15.1 15.2 15.3 0.60% 246.2 248.5 250.8 253.1 255.4 257.7 260 262.3 264.6 1.00%

17.8 17.87 18.1 17.92 17.94 17.99 18.04 18.17 18.26 1.80% 27.07 27.36 27.63 27.88 28.1 28.31 28.49 28.66 28.82 1.20%

10.799 10.729 10.762 10.55710.48410.43810.39610.40810.402 0.50% -0.069 -0.068 -0.068 -0.066 -0.065 -0.065 -0.064 -0.064 -0.063 -0.10%