IssueBrief November 2004 

U.S. Department of Education Educational Attainment of High School Dropouts Institute of Education Sciences 

NCES 2005–026 8 Years Later 

Dropping out of high school is not necessarily the end of a student’s 

formal education. Some students who drop out return a short time 

later to earn a diploma, some may pursue an alternative credential 

such as a General Educational Development (GED) certificate, and 

others may enroll in a postsecondary institution without having 

earned a high school credential. Using data on public and private 

school students from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 

1988 (NELS:88), Berktold, Geis, and Kaufman (1998) examined 

the educational attainment of the 21 percent of 1988 eighth-graders who had dropped out of high school at least once between eighth 

grade and the spring of 1994, 2 years after they would have graduated if they had finished with the majority of their cohort.1

 They 

found that about 44 percent of these dropouts had received a high 

school diploma or an alternative high school credential by 1994. Of 

the 56 percent of all dropouts who had not completed high school 

by 1994, 43 percent indicated that they were working on a high 

school credential. 

This Issue Brief extends Berktold, Geis, and Kaufman’s analysis of 

the NELS:88 cohort another 6 years, by examining dropouts’ high 

school completion status and postsecondary experiences as of the 

year 2000—8 years after the cohort’s expected graduation from high 

school.2,3 

Defining Dropouts 

There are a number of ways to define dropouts. For the purposes of 

this analysis, students were considered dropouts if they ever reported 

dropping out of high school or passing the GED exam, if their high 

school transcripts showed that they had dropped out or passed the 

GED exam, or if in the 1994 or 2000 follow-up surveys they reported that they were working on an alternative credential or that 

they had not completed high school and were not working on an 

alternative credential. Generally, a student absent from school for 4 

consecutive weeks or more and not absent due to accident or illness 

was considered to have dropped out (see Ingels et al. 1994). Members of the 1988 eighth-grade cohort were classified as dropouts 

after they had dropped out for the first time, whether or not they 

eventually earned a credential. This definition is consistent with the 

definition used by Berktold, Geis, and Kaufman (1998) in the analysis 

upon which this Issue Brief builds.4 

High School Completion Status 

About 92 percent of NELS 1988 eighth-graders, regardless of dropout status, earned a high school diploma or alternative by spring 

2000; 88 percent earned a high school diploma or an alternative 

credential by spring 1994, and an additional 4 percent did so after 

spring 1994 but by spring 2000 (table 1).5 

Of students in the 1988 eighth-grade cohort, 20 percent—about 

587,000 students—dropped out of high school at least once (not 

shown in tables). Among students who had ever dropped out, 43 

percent earned a high school diploma or alternative credential by 

spring 1994 (14 percent earned a high school diploma and 29 percent earned a GED or certificate). An additional 20 percent earned 

a high school diploma or alternative credential after spring 1994 

but by spring 2000 (5 percent earned a high school diploma and 15 

percent earned a GED or certificate). Thus, 63 percent of students 

who had ever dropped out earned a high school credential by 2000. 

Forty-four percent of students who dropped out of high school at 

least once earned a GED or certificate and 19 percent earned a diploma by 2000. As of 2000, 37 percent of dropouts had not earned 

a high school diploma or alternative credential, with 5 percent reportedly working towards a high school diploma or equivalent and 

32 percent reportedly not enrolled or not working towards a diploma or equivalent.6 

Consistent with Berktold, Geis, and Kaufman’s (1998) analysis of 

high school completion status as of 1994, this analysis shows that 

high school dropouts’ characteristics as of eighth grade (socioeconomic status, test performance, and expectations of eventually earning a bachelor’s degree or higher) were associated with earning a 

high school diploma or alternative credential as of 2000. As shown 

in table 2, 7 percent of dropouts whose families were in the highest 

socioeconomic status quarter in 1988 had not attained a high school 

Table 1. Percentage distribution of 1988 eighth-graders, by high school completion status: 1994 and 2000 

Completed after spring 1994 

but by spring 20002 

Not completed as of 

Completed by spring 1994 spring 2000 1 

Not 

enrolled 

and not 

working 

diploma or 

equivalent 

Working 

diploma or 

equivalent 

Hig

school 

diploma 

h Hig

school 

diploma 

h towards towards 

GED or 

certificate 

GED or 

Dropout status Total Total certificate Total 

All students 88 83 6 4 1 3 7 1 6 

Dropped out at least once 43 14 29 20 5 15 37 5 32 1 Includes students who earned a high school diploma or alternative credential by the time of the NELS third follow-up in spring 1994. 

2 Includes students who earned a high school diploma or alternative credential between the NELS third follow-up and the NELS fourth follow-up in spring 2000. 

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Students were classified as dropouts after they had dropped out of high school for the first time, 

regardless of whether they eventually completed a credential. Students who completed or were working on a GED or an alternative credential were 

considered to have dropped out at least once. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88/2000). 

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diploma or alternative credential as of 2000. In contrast, 31 percent 

of dropouts in the middle socioeconomic status range and 49 percent of dropouts in the lowest quarter had not done so as of 2000. 

As of 2000, 43 percent of dropouts whose NELS reading and mathematics composite test score was in the bottom quarter had not earned 

a diploma or alternative credential and were not working towards a 

diploma or equivalent, compared to 26 percent of dropouts who 

scored in the middle range and 16 percent of dropouts who scored in 

the highest quarter. 

Dropouts who reported in eighth grade that they expected to complete a bachelor’s degree or higher were more likely to have earned a 

high school diploma or alternative credential by 2000 than their 

peers with lower educational expectations. As shown in table 2, some 

50 percent of dropouts who expected in eighth grade that they would 

finish high school or less had not earned a high school diploma or 

alternative credential as of 2000; in contrast, 25 percent of dropouts 

who expected in eighth grade that they would earn a bachelor’s degree or higher had not earned a high school diploma or alternative 

credential as of 2000. By 2000, 23 percent of dropouts who expected in eighth grade that they would earn a bachelor’s degree or 

higher had not earned a high school credential and were not working towards one; by comparison, 44 percent of dropouts who expected in eighth grade that they would finish high school or less had 

not earned a high school credential and were not working towards 

one. 

Postsecondary Experience of Dropouts 

By 2000, 43 percent of students who dropped out of high school at 

least once reported having enrolled in a postsecondary institution 

(table 3). Of these students, 13 percent reported first enrolling in a 

4-year institution, 58 percent in a public 2-year institution (i.e., a 

community college), and 29 percent in some other type of institution. Dropouts who had earned a high school diploma or alternative credential by spring 1994 were more likely to have attended a 

postsecondary institution than dropouts who had done so after spring 

1994 but by spring 2000 (66 percent compared with 45 percent). 

Fifteen percent of students who had not earned a high school diploma or alternative credential as of 2000 nevertheless reported 

having attended a postsecondary institution, and of those students, 

9 percent reported first enrolling in a 4-year institution, 38 percent 

in a public 2-year institution, and 54 percent in some other type of 

institution. Among dropouts who had some postsecondary experience, 27 percent reported earning a certificate or license and 9 percent reported obtaining an associate’s degree or higher by spring 

2000 (not shown in tables). 

Summary 

Overall, the results presented in this Issue Brief suggest that a majority of students who drop out of high school at least once go on to 

earn a high school diploma or alternative credential within several 

years (63 percent), and many enroll in a postsecondary institution 

(43 percent). These estimates offer an early look at the postsecondary 

experiences of students who ever dropped out of high school, particularly for those who delayed entry into a postsecondary institution. Some dropouts who were enrolled in a postsecondary institution in 2000 may eventually earn a certificate or degree, and others 

who dropped out of high school may decide to further their education at a later date. Future research could use NELS respondents’ 

postsecondary transcripts to investigate the types of postsecondary 

coursework engaged in by students who ever dropped out of high 

school. 

Table 2. Of 1988 eighth-graders who dropped out of high school at least once, percentage distribution according to high school 

completion status, by selected student characteristics: 2000 

Completed after spring 1994 Not completed as of 

Completed by spring 19941 but by spring 20002 spring 2000 

Not 

enrolled 

and not 

Working working 

towards towards 

diploma or diploma or 

Total equivalent equivalent 

High 

school GED or 

Total diploma certificate 

High 

school GED or 

Student characteristics Total diploma certificate 

Dropped out at least once 43 14 29 20 5 15 37 5 32 

Eighth-grade socioeconomic 

status 

Bottom 25 percent 

Middle 50 percent 

Top 25 percent 

31 11 19 

50 14 36 

74 21 53 

20 5 15 

19 5 15 

19 7 13 

49 7 42 

31 3 28 

7 ‡ 5 

Eighth-grade reading and 

mathematics composite test 

performance 

Bottom 25 percent 

Middle 50 percent 

Top 25 percent 

28 10 17 

51 16 35 

73 22 51 

22 8 14 

20 3 17 

9 ‡ 7 

51 8 43 

28 3 26 

18 ‡ 16 

Student's educational expectations in eighth grade 

High school or less 

Some postsecondary education 

Bachelor's degree or higher 

30 8 22 

38 13 25 

56 18 38 

20 4 16 

21 5 16 

19 5 13 

50 6 44 

41 8 33 

25 2 23 

‡ Reporting standards not met. 

1 Includes students who earned a high school diploma or alternative credential by the time of the NELS third follow-up in spring 1994. 

2 Includes students who earned a high school diploma or alternative credential between the NELS third follow-up and the NELS fourth follow-up in spring 2000. 

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Students were classified as dropouts after they had dropped out of high school for the first time, 

regardless of whether they eventually completed a credential. Students who completed or were working on a GED or an alternative credential were 

considered to have dropped out at least once. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88/2000). 

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Table 3. Percentage of 1988 eighth-graders who attended a postsecondary institution by 2000 and the percentage distribution of level of 

first enrollment, by high school completion status: 2000 

Of those who ever attended postsecondary institution 

Ever attended 

postsecondary 

institution 

First attended 

public 2-year 

institution 

First attended 

other type of 

institution1 

First attended 

Dropout status 4-year institution 

All students 78 52 39 10 

Never dropped out 87 56 36 7 

Dropped out at least once 43 13 58 29 

Completed by spring 19942 66 15 60 25 

High scho

GED or certificate 

ol diploma 65 20 61 19 

67 13 59 28 

Completed after spring 1994 but by spring 20003 45 11 64 25 

High school d

GED or certificate 

iploma 47 19 49 31 

44 7 70 23 

Not completed as of spring 2000 15 9 38 54 

Working towards diploma or equivalent 

Not enrolled and not working towards 

diploma or equivalent 

24 ‡ ‡ ‡ 

13 ‡ 31 62 

‡ Reporting standards not met. 

1 Other type of institution includes: private for-profit; private nonprofit, less-than-4-year; and public less-than-2-year schools. 

2 Includes students who earned a high school diploma or alternative credential by the time of the NELS third follow-up in spring 1994. 

3 Includes students who earned a high school diploma or alternative credential between the NELS third follow-up and the NELS fourth follow-up in spring 2000. 

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Students were classified as dropouts after they had dropped out of high school for the first time, 

regardless of whether they eventually completed a credential. Students who completed or were working on a GED or an alternative credential were 

considered to have dropped out at least once. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88/2000). 

Endnotes 

1 The NELS:88/2000 base-year sample excluded about 5 percent of the 1988 

eighth grade student population due to serious physical or mental disabilities and/or greatly limited English language proficiency. For more information about the base-year sample and for a discussion of issues of eligibility, 

inclusion, and the effect of exclusion on national estimates, see Spencer et al. 

(1990) and Ingels (1996). 

2 The estimates in this Issue Brief were produced using F4PNLWT, the panel 

weight for 8th-grade members of the NELS:88 base-year sample who also 

participated in the first, second, third, and fourth follow-ups. The unweighted 

sample size was 10,827 cases, representing the approximately 2.9 million 

people living in the United States in the year 2000 who were members of the 

8th-grade class of 1988. This sample size is smaller than that used in Berktold, 

Geis, and Kaufman’s (1998) analysis and may yield slightly different results. 

3 The data on postsecondary educational experiences presented in this Brief 

in table 3 are based on respondents’ reports. These self-reports may encompass some error in recall and thus may differ from information based on the 

respondents’ postsecondary transcripts, which became available after this 

analysis was completed. 

4 A small number of students who were not classified as dropouts as of 1994 

were considered dropouts for this analysis because they reported having 

earned a GED or alternative credential after spring 1994 but by spring 2000, 

or indicated that they had not earned a high school credential as of 2000. 

5 The NELS third follow-up was conducted between February and June 1994 

(referred to as “spring 1994” in this Brief), and the fourth follow-up was 

conducted between January and August 2000 (referred to as “spring 2000”). 

6 Some dropouts who responded to the base-year and first three NELS follow-up surveys did not respond to the fourth follow-up survey. Estimates 

presented in this Brief may be biased slightly if these nonrespondents were 

less likely to have received a high school credential than those who responded 

to all surveys. One way to estimate the potential magnitude of this bias is to 

assume that none of the fourth follow-up nonrespondents earned a high 

school credential. Using this unlikely assumption yields a high school completion rate of 57 percent for dropouts, while this Brief reports a completion 

rate of 63 percent for dropouts. Because some fourth follow-up 

nonrespondents most likely completed high school, the true magnitude of 

this bias is expected to be less. A more detailed nonresponse bias analysis is 

available upon request from Edith McArthur, NCES, at 202-502-7393 or 

Edith.McArthur@ed.gov. 

References 

Berktold, J., Geis, S., and Kaufman, P. (1998). Subsequent Educational 

Attainment of High School Dropouts (NCES 98–085). U.S. 

Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for 

Education Statistics. 

Ingels, S.J. (1996). Sample Exclusion in NELS:88: Characteristics of Base 

Year Ineligible Students; Changes in Eligibility Status After Four Years 

(NCES 96–723). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: 

National Center for Education Statistics. 

Ingels, S.J., Dowd, K.L., Stipe, J.L., Baldridge, J.D., Bartot, V.H., and Frankel, 

M.R. (1994). NELS:88 Second Follow-Up: Dropout Component Data 

File User’s Manual (NCES 94–375). U.S. Department of Education. 

Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. 

Spencer, B.D., Frankel, M.R., Ingels, S.J., Rasinski, K.A., and Tourangeau, 

R. (1990). National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988: Base Year 

Sample Design Report (NCES 90–463). U.S. Department of Education. 

Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. 

The Issue Brief series presents information on education topics of current interest. All estimates shown are based on samples and are subject to sampling 

variability. All differences are statistically significant at the 0.05 level, according to two-tailed student’s t-tests. In the design, conduct, and data processing of 

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) surveys, efforts are made to minimize the effects of nonsampling errors, such as item nonresponse, measurement 

error, data processing error, or other systematic error. For more information on NELS:88, visit http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/nels88. 

This Issue Brief was prepared by David Hurst, Dana Kelly, and Daniel Princiotta of the Education Statistics Services Institute (ESSI). This Issue Brief was formatted by 

Carol Rohr of Pinkerton Computer Consultants, Inc. For further information, contact Edith McArthur, NCES, at 202-502-7393 or Edith.McArthur@ed.gov. To order 

additional copies of this Issue Brief or other NCES publications, call 1-877-4ED-Pubs or visit http://www.edpubs.org. NCES publications are also available on the 

Internet at http://nces.ed.gov. 

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