A national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy

National Renewable Energy Laboratory 

Innovation for Our Energy Future 

Toward a 20% Wind Electricity 

Supply in the United States

Preprint 

L. Flowers 

National Renewable Energy Laboratory 

P. Dougherty 

U.S. Department of Energy

To be presented at the 2007 European Wind Energy Conference 

and Exhibition 

Milan, Italy 

May 7–10, 2007 

Conference Paper 

NREL/CP-500-41579 

May 2007 

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Toward a 20% Wind Electricity Supply in the United States 

Larry Flowers 

Wind Powering America Technical Director 

National Renewable Energy Laboratory 

1617 Cole Blvd. MS3811 

Golden, CO 80401 

USA 

303-384-6910 

fax 303-384-7097 

lawrence_flowers@nrel.gov 

Phil Dougherty 

Wind Powering America National Coordinator 

U.S. Department of Energy 

1000 Independence Ave. 

Washington, DC 20585 

USA 

202-586-7950 

fax 202-586-5124 

phil.dougherty@ee.doe.gov 

Summary: Since the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiated the Wind Powering America (WPA) program in 1999, installed 

wind power capacity in the United States has increased from 2,500 MW to more than 11,000 MW. In 1999, only four states had 

more than 100 MW of installed wind capacity; now 16 states have more than 100 MW installed. In addition to WPA’s efforts to 

increase deployment, the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) is building a network of support across the country. In 

July 2005, AWEA launched the Wind Energy Works! Coalition, which is comprised of more than 70 organizations. In February 

2006, the wind deployment vision was enhanced by President George W. Bush’s Advanced Energy Initiative, which refers to a 

wind energy contribution of up to 20% of the electricity consumption of the United States. A 20% electricity contribution over 

the next 20 to 25 years represents 300 to 350 gigawatts (GW) of electricity. This paper provides a background of wind energy 

deployment in the United States and a history of the U.S. DOE’s WPA program, as well as the program’s approach to increasing 

deployment through removal of institutional and informational barriers to a 20% wind electricity future. 

Background 

The U.S. Department of Energy initiated the WPA program in 1999 to enhance wind implementation across the United States. 

Since WPA’s inception, wind energy has grown from 2,500 megawatts (MW) (Fig. 1) to more than 11,000 MW at the end of 

2006 (Fig. 2), with an additional 3,000 MW projected in both 2007 and 2008. 

In 1999, only four states had more than 100 MW of installed wind capacity. Sixteen states now have more than 100 MW 

installed. WPA anticipates that five to six additional states will join the 100-MW club in 2007, and by the end of the decade, 

more than 30 states will have passed the 100-MW milestone. (WPA celebrates the 100-MW milestones because installing the 

first 100 megawatts is always difficult and leads to significant experience, recognition of the wind energy’s benefits, and 

expansion of the vision of a more economically and environmentally secure and sustainable future.) 

The federal production tax credit (PTC) and state policy have been important drivers for wind expansion in the United States. 

State policies, especially renewable portfolio standards (RPSs), have been instrumental in wind development. Twenty-two states 

and the District of Columbia have RPSs (Fig. 3), with varying percentages, implementation timetables, rules, qualifying 

technologies, and technology set-asides. (When the WPA program was initiated in 1999, only 10 states had an RPS [1].) An 

interesting new federal incentive is Clean and Renewable Energy Bonds (CREBs) for non-profit divisions of state government, 

such as municipalities and rural electric cooperatives. The USDA Farm Bill 9006 provision offers grants and guaranteed loans for 

RETs (renewable energy technologies), and wind has fared well in the first 3 years of the program. Section 9006 is intended to 

encourage the smaller end of the utility-scale projects, as well as distributed small-scale RET applications owned by rural 

businesses and agricultural producers. 

WPA works with national, regional, and state partners to communicate the opportunities and benefits of wind energy to a diverse

set of stakeholders. WPA’s emphasis remains on the rural agricultural sector, which stands to reap the significant economic 

development benefits of wind energy development. Additionally, WPA continues its program of outreach, education, and 

technical assistance to Native American communities, public power entities, and regulatory and legislative bodies. Figure 4 

depicts a WPA activities matrix. 

 

1
Figure 1. Installed U.S. wind power capacity (MW) in 1999 

Figure 2. Current installed U.S. wind power capacity (MW) 

2
Figure 3. Twenty-two states and the District of Columbia have renewables portfolio standards, with varying percentages, 

implementation timetables, rules, qualifying technologies, and technology set-asides. Source: Database of State Incentives 

for Renewables and Efficiency [2]

Figure 4. WPA activity matrix, featuring key states, stakeholders, and activities 

3
WPA has focused on forming state wind working groups to evaluate and promote wind energy on a state level. Twenty-nine state 

wind working groups form strategic alliances to communicate wind’s benefits to the state stakeholders and educate the key 

stakeholder groups. Figure 5 outlines WPA state-level activities, including wind working groups, workshops and Webcasts, 

exhibits, anemometer loan programs, state-specific small wind consumer’s guides, and validated state wind resource maps. 

 

Figure 5. WPA state activities as of December 2006, including state wind working groups

WPA takes a leadership role in understanding and addressing emerging barriers to wind, including wind-radar interactions, and 

recently helped secure approval of $1.5 billion of new wind projects throughout the Midwest. WPA continues to work on windsiting issues with other agencies responsible for development on public lands and protection of wildlife. In addition, WPA 

initiated a Wind for Schools pilot effort in Colorado and will expand it to five additional states in 2007. Through these efforts and 

many others, WPA continues to expand wind energy as a viable option for power generation. 

WPA is not the only organization working to increase the deployment of wind energy in the United States. To build a network of 

wind energy support across the country, the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) launched the Wind Energy Works! 

coalition in July 2005. By August 2006, the coalition comprised more than 70 organizations, including energy-based, 

agricultural, environmental, economic development, businesses, academic, and others that believe wind power is a part of our 

national energy solution. The coalition is engaging the public debate with facts about the benefits of using wind energy. 

President George W. Bush outlined these wind energy benefits during his State of the Union address in February 2006 when he 

unveiled his Advanced Energy Initiative [3]. Wind advocates were encouraged to hear the President promise increased 

investment in “revolutionary” technologies, including wind. The President stated, “Areas with good wind resources have the 

potential to supply up to 20% of the electricity consumption of the United States.” A 20% electricity contribution over the next 

20 to 25 years represents 300 to 350 gigawatts (GW) of electricity. 

AWEA, DOE, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and other stakeholders are currently developing a 20% wind 

electricity scenario. Achieving this vision requires significantly enhanced outreach efforts to communicate the benefits, the 

required infrastructure upgrades, and the regulatory actions needed to accomplish this promising future for many stakeholder 

groups in all regions of the country. WPA’s state-based network will need to ramp up its outreach effort to key sectors, as well as 

4
develop regional networks in collaboration with AWEA and other clean energy groups (e.g., 25 x ’25 and regional Harvesting 

Clean Energy initiatives) that can address regional planning and implementation challenges. The following section outlines the 

effort to remove the institutional and informational barriers to a 20% wind electricity future. 

Removing Barriers to a 20% Wind Electricity Supply 

General Barriers 

General barriers to a 20% electricity supply in the United States include the following: 

• The availability of the federal PTC remains uncertain. 

• Federal energy and tax policies favor conventional resources over renewables. 

• Stakeholder perspectives and interests are mixed (including regional and environmental differences). 

• Electricity supply is planned around capacity, not energy, resulting in a competitive disadvantage for wind in all-source 

solicitations. 

• Variable-output wind power is (often incorrectly) viewed as unreliable. 

• Energy, economic, and environmental security benefits are often unaccounted for in evaluating wind against 

conventional generation. 

• Because of its relatively low capacity factor, wind power pays higher transmission costs for each megawatt-hour 

(MWh) of generation than conventional dispatchable generation. 

• Wind generation can be built more quickly than new transmission facilities; thus wind development is often constrained 

by transmission development. Furthermore, FERC rules do not foster dialogue between generation and transmission 

planners. 

• Federal financing sources requirements discourage distribution cooperatives from investing in local wind facilities; 

often, generation and transmission cooperatives have resisted investing in wind through their member distribution coops. 

• There is a lack of mechanisms to facilitate interstate cooperation and approval of wind/transmission projects. 

• There is a lack of utility financial incentives to invest directly in wind facilities. 

Project-Specific Barriers 

In addition to the general barriers listed above, specific challenges exist according to market segments: mega-projects, 

conventional projects, offshore projects, community wind, distributed projects (behind the meter), federal sector projects, power 

marketing administrations, and Native American projects. 

Mega-Projects 

Mega-projects are 2,000 MW or larger in size. These projects bring wind from unpopulated land-based or offshore high-wind 

regions to load centers. They require (and are large enough to justify) dedicated, large-scale transmission to carry the power long 

distances on land or shorter distances offshore via submarine cables. Realizing the 20% scenario will almost certainly require 

development of a number of very large projects. 

• Challenge: multi-state and institutional cooperation for large distribution upgrades and marketing large amounts of 

power (requiring massive investments and long lead times) 

• Actions: utility/power buyer incentives are needed to invest/lead projects; state leadership needed to address interstate 

issues 

Conventional Projects 

Most wind projects currently being built across the United States by independent power producers and some utility companies are

typically sized in the 100-MW to 500-MW range. They are often designed to serve a single service territory and to use existing 

transmission or new connections to the regional grid. Because they are located in regions with good to excellent wind regimes, 

they are also frequently far from load centers, and transmission availability is a key consideration. Aggregating turbines into 100- 

or 200-machine projects produces significant economies of scale. Wind farm projects can be structured to provide long-term 

stable prices to buyers (in most cases, an electric utility that acts as a local delivery company). Project output is usually sold 

under long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). Some recent PPAs transfer ownership of the wind project to the utility 

power buyer after some interval, and an increasing number of utility companies are considering building their own wind projects 

in competition with independent wind generating companies. 

• Challenges: wind is considered a technology risk; capacity is unreliable and often viewed as not cost competitive; 

integration costs and capacity value calculation methodologies are not standardized; Federal Energy Regulatory 

Commission (FERC) rules discriminate against wind 

• Actions: need policies that remove financial risk, FERC rule changes, and standardized methods for capacity valuation 

and integration costs 

 

5
Offshore Projects 

Offshore wind projects have the advantage of being in excellent wind regimes that are already close to high-density load centers 

without the need for long-distance transmission. These projects will generally account for their transmission costs up to the point 

of on-shore grid connection. 

• Challenges: economics, permitting, view shed 

• Actions: lower cost, install pilot projects 

Community Wind 

Community stakeholders have seized wind development as a way to diversify and revitalize rural economies and increase energy 

independence, advancing “community wind” as a growing portion of the overall U.S. wind industry. Numerous schools, 

universities, farmers, Native American Tribes, small businesses, rural electric cooperatives, municipal utilities, and even abbeys 

have installed their own mid-sized and large wind turbines to promote environmental responsibility and keep energy dollars local. 

The concept of community wind is simple and flexible. Projects can be any size – one turbine or 100, usually commercial scale 

and greater than 50 kW, but connected on either side of the meter. Projects can be either land-based or offshore. Community 

wind includes both onsite wind turbines used to offset the customer’s load and wholesale wind generation sold to an unrelated 

third party. The key is local ownership and local benefits. Community wind projects are in the planning stages in nearly every 

state with wind development. 

• Challenges: economics, turbine availability, off-takers 

• Actions: policies to enable community ownership; wind industry collaboration; valuing diversity and economic 

development benefits 

Distributed Projects (Behind the Meter) 

Distributed wind energy (behind the meter wind, or BTMW) is a special subset of community wind that is located on-site to 

offset the local electricity load, with excess electricity often sold back to the grid on distribution lines. The leading BTMW 

market is the on-grid sector, where turbines are connected to distribution lines and provide electricity to partially meet local loads 

at homes or commercial sites such as farms, industrial businesses, schools, business parks, and federal facilities. On-grid 

installations are currently motivated by state and utility incentives that reduce turbine costs. 

BTMW has lower wind speed requirements, so more locations can accommodate and harvest the wind. It expands the suite of 

distributed generation alternatives, allowing for increased energy independence and security. The U.S. small wind industry holds 

world preeminence, and as the market continues to expand and manufacturers increase their volume, lower-cost turbines will 

result. 

• Challenges: economics and lack of financial incentives across all market segments, turbine reliability (there is a need 

for testing against common standards), limited turbine size range, interconnection with utilities (especially with rural 

electric cooperatives), and zoning/permitting (zoning permits are required for towers taller than 35’ in suburban 

markets) 

• Actions: cost reduction, enabling policies, broader product offerings 

Federal Sector 

Federal agencies vary widely in size, resources, mission, and operation. In aggregate, the U.S. federal government is the largest 

single consumer of electricity in the world. Federal electricity consumption was 55,035 GWh (~21 GW wind equivalent at 30% 

CP). 

Federal agencies were encouraged to meet the EO#13123 renewable energy goal of the equivalent of 2.5% of site electricity 

coming from new renewable energy sources (installed after 1990) by the end of 2005. The target was set at 1,376 GWh of 

renewable energy based on a 2005 federal electric load estimate of 55,035 GWh. Agencies exceeded the goal considerably with a 

final tally of 3,811 GWh of electricity from renewable energy representing 6.9% of federal electricity use. There was a dramatic 

increase in 2004-2005 due to large renewable energy credit (REC) purchases by the Air Force, General Services Administration 

(GSA), and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the inclusion of previously omitted Department of Defense (DOD) 

large-scale geothermal projects and waste-to-energy systems. Overall, 96% of the non-DOD renewable energy came in the form 

of REC purchases. 

EPAct 2005 requires federal agencies to incorporate renewable energy into their electricity supply mix at an escalating rate 

beginning at 3% in 2007 and ratcheting up to 7.5% by 2013. Wind power must compete against low utility rates that large 

agencies (e.g., DOD) or bulk purchase aggregators (e.g., GSA, Defense Energy Support Center) have negotiated. In times of 

shrinking budgets and escalating energy prices, federal agencies and aggregators seek to stabilize energy expenses with long-term 

contracts that can align well with wind farm developers seeking PPAs. 

6
• Challenge: energy is not “mission critical” (but shouldn’t energy security be?) 

• Actions: increase federal RET goal to 20%+; encourage uniform development policies for federal land development 

Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) 

The Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) and Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) have extensive transmission 

grids that span enormous wind resources. These grids were built with public monies to support federal hydropower and the 

development of large areas of the western United States. Today, these publicly created networks are well positioned to help meet 

national needs for energy security and price stability, low carbon generation, and rural economic development. Demand for wind 

in areas served by WAPA and BPA exists both among their “preference-right” customers and in adjacent metropolitan areas 

typically served by investor-owned utilities. Moving wind energy from areas served by WAPA and BPA into load centers is a 

major opportunity for these federal agencies. Public power customers increasingly demand wind development in their territories. 

• Challenges: motivation to integrate wind; procedures to bring public power/co-op wind generation to investor-owned 

utility loads; access to PMA transmission and customers 

• Actions: 20 % wind integration through analysis and wind-friendly actions and policies 

Native Americans 

American Indian reservations in the lower 48 states share a wind-generating potential conservatively estimated at more than 

150,000 MW, a key component to reaching the industry goal of using wind energy to provide 20% of U.S. electricity 

consumption. At least 39 Indian reservations with significant wind power potential (Class 4 and above) are located in nine of the 

13 high-priority states, with 15 such reservations in six of the eight median priority states. Indian tribes, as governments, have a 

unique legal relationship with the U.S. federal government and increased opportunities under the EPAct 2005. Within the 

reservations, tribes can exercise greater permitting authority and promulgate tribal renewable portfolio standards, net-metering, 

and other renewable energy policies to support the use of wind power to meet their goals of sustainability and energy selfsufficiency within their jurisdictions. Extensive, contiguous communal land holdings on large reservations allow for greater 

flexibility and minimized transaction costs in siting, placement, and permitting of turbine arrays for economically optimal power 

production. Reservations are arrayed along the federal transmission grids, and tribal wind can be integrated with federal 

hydropower, supplementing power marketing agency (BPA and WAPA) allocations. Tribes can use green tags to overcome 

transmission constraints on remotely generated power. With ownership interests in wind generation and the sale of green tags, 

Tribes can participate in both wholesale and retail green power markets.

• Challenge: current federal and wind policies are ill suited to tribes 

• Action: sharable PTC; EPAct tribal RET appropriations; PMA priority to tribal wind power 

Key Messages 

Wind energy stakeholders have differing perspectives (Table 1 provides an overview of stakeholder groups and concerns). 

Achieving the 20% wind deployment scenario will require communicating the following key messages to a variety of stakeholder 

groups in all regions of the United States:

• Wind energy provides national economic, energy, and environmental security. 

• A convergence of energy security, carbon liability, and fuel uncertainty concerns is likely to transform the U.S. 

electricity supply market. 

• Federal and state policies are needed for a diversified and robust wind energy portfolio (including bulk and distributed 

wind applications); these policies and incentives should change over time and as markets develop for each segment. 

• Offshore wind will most likely be needed in some high-population-density, energy-constrained coastal regions. 

• Community and distributed wind are important building blocks for public acceptance of a 20% wind future. 

• Targeted messages and education are needed for the diverse set of stakeholder interests and perspectives, including 

regional variations in same as well as in barriers and incentives. 

• Resource planning and procurement should maximize the use of low-marginal-cost, zero-emissions energy resources, 

which displace more expensive fossil fuel. This saves consumers money and reduces emissions liability. 

• All environmental (including water savings) and economic impacts (including natural gas savings and risks, as well as 

coal risks, costs, and liabilities and benefits) should be included in comparative resource analyses. 

• Wind deployment can ramp up rapidly and incrementally to meet local and regional load growth. 

• Wind is the crop of the 21st century for rural America, and the resulting economic benefits need to be included in 

comparative assessments of generation options. 

• The federal sector (both facilities and transmission) represents significant opportunities for leadership in use and 

transmission of wind. 

• Non-discriminatory transmission policies and construction are needed to ensure a robust wind energy future. 

• Meeting most load growth with wind energy buys time for the development and commercialization of advanced coal 

technologies able to capture and durably sequester carbon. 

7
Table 1. Stakeholder Groups in the U.S. 20% Wind Energy Scenario Planner and Operator G&T BOD/Executive Management/ Finance/Stockholders RTOs/ISOs Regulators - PUC Regulators - ENV Manufacturers 

Legislators Developers Permitting Authorities Large Customers: IndustrialCommercial Ag Sector Advocates Consumer 

Risk C C C 

Profits C C C C 

Rate Stability s C C C s 

s C 

Energy 

Security C s C s s s 

System 

Reliability C C s C s 

Land Use s C C 

s 

Environment s C s s s C s 

Health C s C 

Water 

Resource C s C 

Natural Gas 

Offset s s s 

Economic 

Development * C C C C s 

*C=critical, s=secondary 

8
Conclusions 

A 20% wind energy penetration scenario is possible in the United States, but it will not happen under business-as-usual scenarios. 

Policy choices will have a large impact on assessing the timing and rate of achieving a 20% goal. Key issues include market 

transformation, transmission, project diversity, technology development, policy, and public acceptance. A 20% scenario will be 

presented at WINDPOWER 2007 in Los Angeles. 

References 

1. Energy Information Administration. State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Status Through 2003. Accessed May 7, 

2007, at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/rps/rps_tables.html 

2. Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency. Renewables Portfolio Standards. Accessed May 7, 2007, at 

http://www.dsireusa.org/documents/SummaryMaps/RPS_Map.ppt 

3. The White House National Economic Council. Advanced Energy Initiative. February 2006. Accessed April 30, 2007, at 

http://www.whitehouse.gov/stateoftheunion/2006/energy/energy_booklet.pdf 

Acknowledgments 

The authors would like to acknowledge the following contributors to the Markets and Acceptance chapter of the 20% wind 

energy scenario project: Lisa Daniels, Trudy Forsyth, Robert Gough, Ron Lehr, Steve Lindenberg, Dave Olsen, and Robi 

Robichaud. Highlights of their chapter submissions were reported in this document. 

9
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14. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 Words)

Since the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiated the Wind Powering America (WPA) program in 1999, installed 

wind power capacity in the United States has increased from 2,500 MW to more than 11,000 MW. In 1999, only four 

states had more than 100 MW of installed wind capacity; now 16 states have more than 100 MW installed. In addition 

to WPA’s efforts to increase deployment, the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) is building a network of 

support across the country. In July 2005, AWEA launched the Wind Energy Works! Coalition, which is comprised of 

more than 70 organizations. In February 2006, the wind deployment vision was enhanced by President George W. 

Bush’s Advanced Energy Initiative, which refers to a wind energy contribution of up to 20% of the electricity 

consumption of the United States. A 20% electricity contribution over the next 20 to 25 years represents 300 to 350 

gigawatts (GW) of electricity. This paper provides a background of wind energy deployment in the United States and 

a history of the U.S. DOE’s WPA program, as well as the program’s approach to increasing deployment through 

removal of institutional and informational barriers to a 20% wind electricity future. 

15. SUBJECT TERMS

wind energy; Wind Powering America; 20% wind energy scenario; 20 percent wind energy scenario; deployment 

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