Railroad Retirement

System

Annual Report Required by Railroad

Retirement Act of 1974 and Railroad

Retirement Solvency Act of 1983

U.S. Railroad Retirement Board

Bureau of the Actuary

June 2005
ANNUAL ACTUARIAL REPORT REQUIRED BY 

RAILROAD RETIREMENT ACT OF 1974 AND 

RAILROAD RETIREMENT SOLVENCY ACT OF 1983 

I. INTRODUCTION 

Section 22 of the Railroad Retirement Act of 1974 requires the Railroad Retirement 

Board to prepare an annual report containing a five-year projection of revenues to and 

payments from the Railroad Retirement Account and to submit the report to the President 

and the Congress by July 1. The report must also contain a five-year projection of the 

account benefits ratio and average account benefits ratio. If the five-year projection 

indicates that funds in the Railroad Retirement Account will be insufficient to pay full 

benefits, (1) representatives of railroad employees, railroad carriers and the President 

must submit proposals to the Congress to preserve the financial solvency of the Railroad 

Retirement Account, and (2) the Railroad Retirement Board must issue regulations to 

reduce annuity levels during any fiscal year in which there would be insufficient funds to 

make full payments. 

Section 502 of the Railroad Retirement Solvency Act of 1983 requires the Railroad 

Retirement Board to prepare an annual report on the actuarial status of the railroad 

retirement system and to submit the report to the Congress by July 1. The report must 

contain recommendations for any financing changes which might be advisable, including 

(1) changes in the tax rates, and (2) whether any part of the taxes on employers should be 

diverted to the Railroad Unemployment Insurance Account to aid in the repayment of its 

debt to the Railroad Retirement Account. 

This report is intended to meet the requirements of Section 22 and Section 502 for 2005. 

II. RAILROAD EMPLOYMENT 

Over the years, the main source of income to the railroad retirement system has been a 

payroll tax on railroad employment. The amount of income that the tax produces is 

directly dependent on the number of railroad employees covered under the system. 

An abbreviated history of average railroad employment from 1955 through 2000 is 

shown in the following table. 

Average annual rate of decline 

Average employment for the 5-year period 

Year for year ending with the year 

1955 1,239,000 

1960 909,000 6.0% 

1965 753,000 3.7 
2

1970 640,000 3.2 

1975 548,000 3.1 

1980 532,000 0.6 

1985 372,000 6.9 

1990 296,000 4.5 

1995 265,000 2.2 

2000 246,000 1.5 

Between 1955 and 2000, the average annual rate of decline was 3.5 percent. Since 2000, 

average employment and rates of decline have been as follows: 

Average employment Annual rate of decline 

Year for year from previous year 

2001 238,000 3.3% 

2002 229,000 3.8 

2003 225,000 1.7 

2004 227,000 (0.9) 

Two things become clear from the figures shown -- (1) railroad employment has 

continued to decline over a long period of years, and (2) the rate of decline has been 

irregular. 

Three employment assumptions were used in the 22nd actuarial valuation, which served 

as the 2003 annual report required by Section 502. Employment assumptions I and II 

were based on a model developed by the Association of American Railroads, and 

assumed that (1) passenger employment would remain at the level of 44,000, and (2) the 

employment base, excluding passenger employment, would decline at a constant annual 

rate (1.5 percent for assumption I and 3.0 percent for assumption II) for 25 years, at a 

reducing rate over the next 25 years, and remain level thereafter. Employment 

assumption III differed from employment assumptions I and II by assuming that 

(1) passenger employment would decline by 500 per year until a level of 35,000 was 

reached and then remain level, and (2) the employment base, excluding passenger 

employment, would decline at a constant annual rate of 4.5 percent for 25 years, at a 

reducing rate over the next 25 years, and remain level thereafter. 

The 2004 annual report continued the use of the three employment assumptions, updating 

them as to current employment levels. 

The projected average employment for 2004, based on the three employment assumptions 

used in the 2004 report, ranged from 215,000 to 221,000. The actual average 

employment for 2004 was 227,000 (subject to later adjustment), which exceeds the range 

of projected amounts. Passenger employment at the end of calendar year 2004 was 

estimated to be 43,000. Based on this result, it was decided to use 2004 average 

employment as a starting point in this year's report and continue the use of the rates of 

decline used in the 22nd valuation. In this year’s report, for employment assumptions I 
3 

and II, passenger employment is assumed to remain level at 43,000. For employment 

assumption III, passenger employment is assumed to decline by 500 per year until a level 

of 35,000 is reached and then remain level. These assumptions are shown in Table 1. 

III. RESULTS 

Projections were made for the various components of income and outgo under each 

employment assumption for the 25 calendar years 2005-2029. The projections of these 

components were combined and the investment income calculated to produce the 

projected balances in the accounts at the end of each projection year. The results are 

summarized in Table 2 and Figure 1. 

Table 2 consists of three tables, one for each of employment assumptions I, II and III. 

The tables show, for the Social Security Equivalent Benefit Account (SSEBA) and the 

combined National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust (NRRIT) and Railroad 

Retirement Account (RRA) for each projection year, (1) the various elements of income 

and outgo, (2) the account balance on December 31, and (3) the account benefits ratio1 

(ABR) and average account benefits ratio (AABR). 

Table 2 indicates that cash flow problems do not arise during the projection period under 

any of the three employment assumptions. The results shown in Table 2 will be 

discussed separately for the SSEBA and the combined NRRIT and RRA. 

A. Social Security Equivalent Benefit Account 

The SSEBA pays the social security level of benefits and administrative expenses 

allocable to those benefits, and it receives as income the social security level of taxes. 

The SSEBA also receives or pays the financial interchange transfers between the railroad 

retirement and social security systems. The financial interchange transfer, subject to the 

qualification in the next paragraph, should be enough to offset any surplus or deficit for 

the year. The SSEBA can thus be regarded as automatically funded, the financial 

interchange being the mechanism for correcting any surplus or deficiency. 

The qualification mentioned in the preceding paragraph arises because, in a relatively 

small number of cases, the railroad retirement system does not pay benefits when the 

social security system would. In these cases, mainly dependent children of retired 

railroad employees, the SSEBA collects an amount through the financial interchange but 

1

 At the end of each fiscal year (September 30), an Account Benefits Ratio (ABR) is calculated by dividing 

the fair market value of the assets in the RRA and of the NRRIT (and for years before 2002, the SSEBA) as 

of the close of such fiscal year by the total benefits and administrative expenses paid from the RRA and the 

NRRIT during such fiscal year. The Average Account Benefits Ratio (AABR), with respect to any 

calendar year, is then calculated as the average of the account benefits ratios for the 10 most recent fiscal 

years ending before such calendar year. If the AABR is not a multiple of 0.1, it is increased to the next 

highest multiple of 0.1. The tier 2 tax rate is determined from a tax rate table based on the AABR. 
4 

does not pay a corresponding benefit. This imbalance between outgo and income is small 

in any particular year. 

The SSEBA must from time to time transfer to the NRRIT or RRA amounts not needed 

to pay current benefits and administrative expenses in such a manner as to maximize 

investment return to the Railroad Retirement system. 

The SSEBA is assumed to maintain a target balance of approximately 1.5 months of 

benefit payments in order to meet benefit obligations and contingencies, and transfer any 

excess to the NRRIT. However, if the NRRIT runs into cash flow problems, the SSEBA 

is assumed to transfer enough of its accumulated funds to the NRRIT to provide for 

benefit payments until the SSEBA is exhausted. Thereafter, the SSEBA is assumed to 

transfer to the NRRIT any excess of income over outgo, maintaining a zero balance. 

The projected balance in the SSEBA falls below 1.5 months of benefits in 2006 and 

periodically thereafter due to expected quinquennial transfers to social security for pre1957 military service benefit costs required by P.L. 88-133. 

B. Railroad Retirement Account and National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust 

The RRA receives tier 2 payroll taxes and income taxes on tier 2 and excess tier 1 

benefits. The RRA is required to pay administrative expenses and transfer amounts in 

excess of the amount needed for administrative expenses to the NRRIT. The NRRIT is 

required to receive transfers from the RRA and SSEBA, and pay tier 2 benefits, excess 

tier 1 benefits, supplemental annuity benefits and administrative expenses. 

The tier 2 payroll tax rate is determined from a tax rate table based on the AABR. The 

combined employer and employee tier 2 tax rate is 18% for values of the AABR between 

4.0 and 6.0, inclusive. A maximum rate of 27% is reached when the AABR falls below 

2.5, and a minimum rate of 8.2% is reached when the AABR reaches 9.0. Since the 

AABR is a 10-year average of the ABR’s, whether the AABR in a given year increases 

or decreases from the prior year depends solely on whether the ABR in the prior year is 

greater or less than the ABR 10 years earlier. 

Under employment assumption I (Table 2-I), the combined NRRIT and RRA balance 

grows through 2015, declines slightly in 2016 and then continues to grow through the end 

of the projection period . The combined employer and employee tier 2 tax rate decreases 

to 15% in 2010-2013 and then increases to 18% in 2020-2029. 

Under employment assumption II (Table 2-II), the combined NRRIT and RRA balance 

grows through 2010 and then declines. The tier 2 tax rate decreases to 15% in 2011 and 

then increases until reaching a level of 18% in 2019-2029. 

Under employment assumption III (Table 2-III), the combined NRRIT and RRA balance 

grows through 2010 and then declines. The ABR declines throughout the projection 
5 

period, reaching 0.94 in calendar year 2029. Due to the effect of 10-year averaging, the 

AABR first increases to 6.9 in 2009-2012, and then declines throughout the remainder of 

the projection period, reaching 2.7 in 2029. As a result, the tier 2 tax rate first decreases 

to 16% in 2007-2015, then increases until reaching a rate of 23% in 2029. 

C. Analysis of Results 

Under each employment assumption, no cash flow problems occur throughout the 25-

year projection period, and the ABR remains above 0.5 in each year. 

The overall conclusion is that, barring a sudden, unanticipated, large decrease in railroad 

employment or substantial investment losses, the railroad retirement system will 

experience no cash flow problems during the next 25 years. The long-term stability of 

the system, however, is still questionable. Under the current financing structure, actual 

levels of railroad employment and investment return over the coming years will largely 

determine whether corrective action is necessary. 

D. Comparison of Results with 2004 Report 

The projected account balances are higher than in last year’s report due largely to the 

actual investment return of approximately 11.5% exceeding the expected investment 

return of 8% in calendar year 2004, along with actual 2004 average employment 

exceeding the range projected for 2004. 

IV. RECOMMENDATIONS 

As stated in the introduction, this report must contain recommendations with regard to 

(1) tax rates and (2) whether any part of the taxes on employers should be diverted to the 

Railroad Unemployment Insurance Account to aid in the repayment of any debt to the 

Railroad Retirement Account. 

A. Tax Rates 

This report recommends no change in the rate of tax imposed on employers and 

employees. The tax adjustment mechanism will automatically increase or decrease tax 

rates in response to changes in fund balance. Even under a pessimistic employment 

assumption, this mechanism is expected to prevent cash flow problems for the duration of 

the 25-year projection period. 
6 

B. Diversion of Taxes to Railroad Unemployment Insurance Account 

No diversion of taxes from the Railroad Retirement Account to the Railroad 

Unemployment Insurance Account is recommended at this time. There are currently no 

loans outstanding from the Railroad Retirement Account to the Railroad Unemployment 

Insurance Account. 
Table 1. Employment, inflation and interest assumptions 

Percentage increase 

Calendar Average employment (thousands) over prior year Interest 

year I II III Earnings Cost of living rate 

2004 227 227 227 4.0% 2.1% 11.5% 

2005 224 222 218 4.0 2.7 8.0 

2006 222 216 210 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2007 219 211 202 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2008 216 206 194 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2009 214 201 187 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2010 211 196 180 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2011 209 192 173 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2012 206 187 166 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2013 204 183 160 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2014 201 179 154 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2015 199 175 148 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2016 197 171 143 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2017 194 167 138 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2018 192 163 133 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2019 190 160 128 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2020 188 156 123 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2021 185 153 119 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2022 183 149 115 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2023 181 146 112 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2024 179 143 108 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2025 177 140 105 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2026 175 137 102 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2027 173 134 99 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2028 171 132 96 4.0 3.0 8.0 

2029 169 129 93 4.0 3.0 8.0 
Table 2-I. Progress of the Combined National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust (NRRIT) and Railroad Retirement Account (RRA

Social Security Equivalent Benefit Account (SSEBA) under Employment Assumption I

(Dollar amounts in millions)

Average Combined NRRIT and RRA SSEBA 

Account account Tier 2 Benefits Benefits Other 

Calendar benefits benefits tax and admin- Tax Other Balance, and admin- Tax income and Balance, 

year ratioa ratiob rate istration incomec incomed end year istration incomec expense e end year 

2005 7.46 6.10 17.0% $3,831 $2,514 $2,368 $28,392 $5,489 $2,288 $3,147 $683 2006 7.37 6.40 17.0% 3,992 2,586 2,212 29,198 5,634 2,356 3,203 608 

2007 7.23 6.60 16.0% 4,165 2,523 2,266 29,822 5,776 2,422 3,451 707 

2008 7.06 6.80 16.0% 4,356 2,594 2,387 30,446 5,931 2,488 3,474 738 

2009 6.91 6.90 16.0% 4,539 2,665 2,444 31,016 6,119 2,556 3,585 762 

2010 6.72 7.00 15.0% 4,720 2,590 2,480 31,366 6,327 2,628 3,725 787 

2011 6.50 7.00 15.0% 4,910 2,662 2,414 31,532 6,541 2,701 3,762 710 

2012 6.27 7.00 15.0% 5,102 2,736 2,422 31,587 6,767 2,779 4,104 826 

2013 6.07 7.00 15.0% 5,283 2,812 2,502 31,618 7,008 2,861 4,194 872 

2014 5.89 6.90 16.0% 5,459 3,055 2,529 31,743 7,257 2,947 4,341 903 

2015 5.72 6.80 16.0% 5,628 3,141 2,539 31,795 7,510 3,038 4,504 935 

2016 5.55 6.60 16.0% 5,774 3,228 2,435 31,684 7,771 3,123 4,580 868 

2017 5.44 6.40 17.0% 5,894 3,496 2,440 31,726 8,031 3,214 4,949 999 

2018 5.37 6.30 17.0% 5,992 3,593 2,557 31,884 8,279 3,309 5,000 1,030 

2019 5.33 6.10 17.0% 6,066 3,694 2,577 32,089 8,512 3,408 5,133 1,059 

2020 5.35 5.90 18.0% 6,122 3,990 2,610 32,566 8,728 3,510 5,244 1,086 

2021 5.38 5.80 18.0% 6,161 4,101 2,518 33,024 8,921 3,617 5,270 1,052 

2022 5.46 5.70 18.0% 6,185 4,214 2,641 33,694 9,095 3,726 5,448 1,131 

2023 5.58 5.60 18.0% 6,203 4,330 2,768 34,589 9,249 3,838 5,430 1,151 

2024 5.73 5.60 18.0% 6,224 4,447 2,847 35,660 9,391 3,950 5,459 1,168 

2025 5.91 5.50 18.0% 6,248 4,565 2,940 36,917 9,530 4,062 5,484 1,185 

2026 6.08 5.60 18.0% 6,272 4,686 2,886 38,218 9,667 4,178 5,493 1,189 

2027 6.31 5.60 18.0% 6,300 4,810 3,144 39,872 9,807 4,295 5,543 1,219 

2028 6.56 5.70 18.0% 6,342 4,936 3,296 41,762 9,951 4,413 5,556 1,237 

2029 6.83 5.80 18.0% 6,400 5,066 3,452 43,880 10,106 4,533 5,592 1,256 

a The fair market value of the assets in the RRA and NRRIT as of the close of the fiscal year (September 30) divided by the total benefits and adm

paid from the RRA and NRRIT during the fiscal year. 

b The average of the account benefits ratios for the 10 most recent fiscal years ending before the calendar year. c Includes payroll taxes and income taxes on benefits. d Includes investment income and transfers from the SSEBA. e Other income includes financial interchange income, advances from general revenues, and interest income. Other expense includes repayment 

from general revenues and transfers to the NRRIT. 
Table 2-II. Progress of the Combined National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust (NRRIT) and Railroad Retirement Account (RRA

Social Security Equivalent Benefit Account (SSEBA) under Employment Assumption II

(Dollar amounts in millions)

Average Combined NRRIT and RRA SSEBA 

Account account Tier 2 Benefits Benefits Other 

Calendar benefits benefits tax and admin- Tax Other Balance, and admin- Tax income and Balance, 

year ratioa ratiob rate istration incomec incomed end year istration incomec expense e end year 

2005 7.45 6.10 17.0% $3,831 $2,499 $2,367 $28,377 $5,489 $2,274 $3,160 $683 2006 7.36 6.40 17.0% 3,992 2,546 2,209 29,139 5,634 2,319 3,240 608 

2007 7.20 6.60 16.0% 4,165 2,460 2,259 29,693 5,776 2,361 3,512 707 

2008 7.02 6.80 16.0% 4,356 2,506 2,372 30,216 5,931 2,402 3,560 738 

2009 6.83 6.90 16.0% 4,538 2,550 2,421 30,648 6,119 2,443 3,699 762 

2010 6.64 6.90 16.0% 4,719 2,594 2,451 30,974 6,327 2,485 3,867 787 

2011 6.39 7.00 15.0% 4,909 2,499 2,375 30,938 6,540 2,529 3,934 710 

2012 6.14 6.90 16.0% 5,100 2,686 2,372 30,896 6,767 2,575 4,307 825 

2013 5.92 6.90 16.0% 5,281 2,735 2,443 30,793 7,007 2,624 4,429 872 

2014 5.69 6.80 16.0% 5,457 2,784 2,451 30,571 7,255 2,677 4,609 903 

2015 5.46 6.70 16.0% 5,625 2,835 2,433 30,213 7,506 2,732 4,806 934 

2016 5.22 6.50 16.0% 5,770 2,886 2,294 29,623 7,764 2,780 4,916 867 

2017 5.01 6.30 17.0% 5,889 3,093 2,258 29,085 8,021 2,832 5,320 998 

2018 4.85 6.10 17.0% 5,984 3,149 2,327 28,578 8,264 2,888 5,407 1,028 

2019 4.72 5.90 18.0% 6,055 3,367 2,299 28,188 8,493 2,946 5,576 1,057 

2020 4.61 5.70 18.0% 6,109 3,427 2,274 27,781 8,701 3,005 5,723 1,083 

2021 4.49 5.40 18.0% 6,144 3,490 2,109 27,236 8,886 3,067 5,784 1,047 

2022 4.40 5.30 18.0% 6,163 3,553 2,151 26,777 9,050 3,130 5,998 1,126 

2023 4.33 5.10 18.0% 6,175 3,617 2,185 26,403 9,192 3,194 6,016 1,143 

2024 4.26 4.90 18.0% 6,189 3,680 2,161 26,056 9,320 3,256 6,079 1,159 

2025 4.20 4.80 18.0% 6,206 3,743 2,139 25,732 9,442 3,318 6,139 1,174 

2026 4.11 4.70 18.0% 6,220 3,808 1,956 25,276 9,559 3,380 6,180 1,176 

2027 4.06 4.50 18.0% 6,236 3,872 2,072 24,984 9,676 3,443 6,260 1,203 

2028 4.00 4.50 18.0% 6,263 3,938 2,066 24,724 9,794 3,505 6,303 1,217 

2029 3.94 4.40 18.0% 6,304 4,005 2,048 24,473 9,918 3,568 6,366 1,233 

a The fair market value of the assets in the RRA and NRRIT as of the close of the fiscal year (September 30) divided by the total benefits and adm

paid from the RRA and NRRIT during the fiscal year. 

b The average of the account benefits ratios for the 10 most recent fiscal years ending before the calendar year. c Includes payroll taxes and income taxes on benefits. d Includes investment income and transfers from the SSEBA. e Other income includes financial interchange income, advances from general revenues, and interest income. Other expense includes repayment 

from general revenues and transfers to the NRRIT. 
Table 2-III. Progress of the Combined National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust (NRRIT) and Railroad Retirement Account (RR

Social Security Equivalent Benefit Account (SSEBA) under Employment Assumption III

(Dollar amounts in millions)

Average Combined NRRIT and RRA SSEBA 

Account account Tier 2 Benefits Benefits Other 

Calendar benefits benefits tax and admin- Tax Other Balance, and admin- Tax income and Balance, 

year ratioa ratiob rate istration incomec incomed end year istration incomec expense e end year 

2005 7.45 6.10 17.0% $3,831 $2,481 $2,367 $28,359 $5,489 $2,258 $3,176 $683 2006 7.34 6.40 17.0% 3,992 2,499 2,205 29,071 5,634 2,276 3,284 608 

2007 7.17 6.60 16.0% 4,165 2,389 2,250 29,544 5,776 2,291 3,583 706 

2008 6.96 6.80 16.0% 4,355 2,405 2,356 29,950 5,931 2,303 3,660 738 

2009 6.74 6.90 16.0% 4,538 2,418 2,394 30,225 6,119 2,313 3,829 762 

2010 6.52 6.90 16.0% 4,718 2,431 2,410 30,348 6,327 2,324 4,028 787 

2011 6.25 6.90 16.0% 4,908 2,445 2,323 30,207 6,540 2,336 4,127 710 

2012 5.96 6.90 16.0% 5,099 2,458 2,304 29,871 6,766 2,348 4,533 825 

2013 5.67 6.80 16.0% 5,279 2,473 2,349 29,414 7,005 2,363 4,688 872 

2014 5.38 6.80 16.0% 5,454 2,487 2,328 28,776 7,252 2,380 4,902 903 

2015 5.07 6.60 16.0% 5,621 2,502 2,275 27,932 7,501 2,398 5,134 934 

2016 4.77 6.40 17.0% 5,765 2,646 2,102 26,914 7,756 2,409 5,279 866 

2017 4.47 6.10 17.0% 5,881 2,661 2,023 25,716 8,009 2,423 5,718 997 

2018 4.21 5.80 18.0% 5,974 2,805 2,043 24,591 8,248 2,438 5,840 1,026 

2019 3.95 5.60 18.0% 6,043 2,821 1,957 23,325 8,471 2,455 6,043 1,054 

2020 3.69 5.30 18.0% 6,093 2,838 1,861 21,931 8,672 2,474 6,222 1,079 

2021 3.41 5.00 18.0% 6,124 2,860 1,615 20,282 8,847 2,499 6,312 1,043 

2022 3.13 4.70 18.0% 6,137 2,882 1,568 18,594 8,999 2,524 6,552 1,120 

2023 2.85 4.40 18.0% 6,143 2,905 1,501 16,858 9,128 2,549 6,595 1,135 

2024 2.55 4.10 18.0% 6,150 2,928 1,367 15,003 9,241 2,574 6,681 1,149 

2025 2.24 3.90 19.0% 6,158 3,087 1,229 13,161 9,344 2,597 6,760 1,162 

2026 1.90 3.60 19.0% 6,162 3,112 923 11,034 9,439 2,621 6,817 1,161 

2027 1.58 3.30 20.0% 6,165 3,275 910 9,055 9,532 2,644 6,911 1,185 

2028 1.24 3.00 20.0% 6,177 3,301 768 6,947 9,621 2,667 6,965 1,196 

2029 0.94 2.70 23.0% 6,199 3,753 619 5,121 9,713 2,690 7,034 1,207 

a The fair market value of the assets in the RRA and NRRIT as of the close of the fiscal year (September 30) divided by the total benefits and adm

paid from the RRA and NRRIT during the fiscal year. 

b The average of the account benefits ratios for the 10 most recent fiscal years ending before the calendar year. c Includes payroll taxes and income taxes on benefits. d Includes investment income and transfers from the SSEBA. e Other income includes financial interchange income, advances from general revenues, and interest income. Other expense includes repayment 

from general revenues and transfers to the NRRIT. 
Figure 1. Combined NRRIT, RRA and SSEBA Balance 

(In millions) 

$50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 

$5,000 

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