Modeling of Performance, Cost, and Financing of 


Concentrating Solar, Photovoltaic, and Solar Heat Systems
 

IntroDUCtIon 

The Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Program has adopted a “systems 

driven approach” (SDA) to program planning across all solar technologies.This 

approach has several advantages including a clear connection between market 

requirements and R&D activities, a consistent approach and metrics across 

Solar aDvISor MoDel ConCePt 

• Combine all solar technologies in one modeling 


environment
 

– concentrating solar power (CSP) 

– photovoltaics (PV) 

– solar heating (primarily solar residential hot water) 

– solar hybrid lighting 

• Model performance, costs, and financing consistently 


across technologies for appropriate comparisons.
 

PerForManCe MoDelS 

tRansient sYstem simulation Program • Based on an existing, validated NREL finance tool 

(tRnsYs) Engine for all technologies • Based on a detailed cash-flow model – Existing content for all technologies 

– Large user community • Output 

– LCOE, NPV, IRR, revenue, Photovoltaics 

taxes, etc. – King Database Performance Map Model 

– Simple Single-Pt Efficiency with Temp. • Residential 

 Correction – Cash, loan, or mortgage 

Concentrating solar Power • Commercial 

– SolarPaces library – Cash or loan – Developing new power-plant models 


with UW-SEL 

active solar 

– Using existing, validated models and systems 

outputs 

– Annual Energy Output 

– Energy Output by Hour 

oUtPUtS anD aPPlICatIonS 

•	 Financial outputs include levelized cost of energy, net present value of the project, 

rate of return 

•	 Performance outputs include solar efficiency, annual total output, hourly output,
 

and value
 

•	 Cost outputs include the detailed yearly cash flows 

•	 Solar Advisor is currently used to provide analysis support to the DOE Solar 

Program Multiyear Planning Process 

•	 Applicants for the DOE’s Solar Advanced Initiative (worth $140 million) need to use 

Solar Advisor to quantify their R&D impacts on the total system cost of energy. 

•	 Future improvements will broaden the uses and the user groups for Solar Advisor 

across all technologies. 

technologies, consistent assumptions for cross-technology comparisons, and 

data and metrics that provide a credible story about R&D efforts. NREL has 

spent the past few years working on a tool to enable and enforce the SDA. 

• Calculate impact of technology improvements on 

LCOE, NPV, etc. in various markets. 

• Provide extensive sensitivity analysis and output/ 

plotting capabilities 

• Do not reinvent the wheel (existing models when 

possible) 

• Potentially become a robust simulation tool that 

industry will use but as a secondary goal. 

ProjeCt FInanCIng oPtIonS 

• Utility Scale 

– IPP or utility 

ContaCts 

Nate Blair, Mark Mehos, Craig Christensen, 

and David Mooney 

nate_blair@nrel.gov 

mark_mehos@nrel.gov 

craig_christensen@nrel.gov 

david_mooney@nrel.gov 

national Renewable Energy Laboratory 

(nREL) 

1617 Cole Blvd. 

Golden, CO 80401-3393 

The information contained in this poster is 

subject to a government license. 

CU Energy Initiative/NREL Symposium 

University of Colorado, Boulder 

October 3, 2006 

NREL/PO-640-40673