Technology Type 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Conventional Vehicles 1/

 Gasoline ICE Vehicles 2551.2 2553.9 2562.7 2551.3 2554.1 2553.2 2549.1

 TDI Diesel ICE 37.6 37.4 38 40.8 45.6 51.2 56.9

Alternative-Fuel Vehicles 1/

 Ethanol-Flex Fuel ICE 84.9 96.6 110.6 135.9 170.3 208.1 245

 100 Mile Electric Vehicle 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6

 200 Mile Electric Vehicle 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Plug-in 10 Gasoline Hybrid 0 0 0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9

 Plug-in 40 Gasoline Hybrid 0 0 0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1

 Electric-Diesel Hybrid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Electric-Gasoline Hybrid 12.8 15.8 19.2 23.6 29 34.8 40.6

 Compressed Natural Gas ICE 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

 Compressed Natural Gas Bi-fuel 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases ICE 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

 Liquefied Petroleum Gases Bi-fuel 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4

 Fuel Cell Gasoline 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Fuel Cell Methanol 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 Fuel Cell Hydrogen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

VMT Equation Components

 Total VMT (billion miles) 2689.8 2706.9 2733.6 2755 2803.1 2852.2 2897.6

 VMT/Licensed Driver (thousand miles) 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.3

 Licensed Drivers (million) 205.1 206.6 208.8 211 213.1 215.1 217.2

Price Effects

 Motor Gasoline Price (1987 $/million Btu) 15.99 11.39 13.07 13.7 13.78 14.53 14.95

 Fleet Miles per Gallon 20.81 20.95 21.1 21.3 21.55 21.83 22.13

 Real Cost of Driving per Mile (1987 cents) 12.934 9.07 10.285 10.64 10.577 11.007 11.164

Point Price Elasticity -0.091 -0.065 -0.073 -0.076 -0.075 -0.078 -0.078

 Btu = British thermal units.

 - - = Not applicable.

 Sources: 2008 and 2009 values derived using: Federal

Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2008 (Washington, DC, April 2010); and

Light-Duty Vehicle Miles Traveled by Technology Type, Reference case

(billion miles, unless otherwise noted)

 1/ Includes personal and fleet vehicles. Includes both cars and light trucks.

 VMT = Vehicle miles traveled.

 ICE = Internal combustion engine.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System.

Projections: EIA, AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

2547.8 2552.4 2553.3 2552.9 2553.2 2559.3 2569.4 2577.3 2588.7 2599.2 2614.4 2630.6

62.7 68.5 74.2 79.6 84.9 90.3 95.9 101.3 106.7 112 117.6 123.2

282.2 320.2 355.2 388.4 420.1 451.5 483.2 510.7 537.2 560.4 584.1 607

2.1 2.7 3.3 4 4.6 5.4 6.3 7.3 8.4 9.4 10.6 11.8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1.3 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.1 5 6.1 7.4 8.9 10.9 13.1

1.3 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.5 4.2 5.1 6 7 7.9 9 10

0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5

47.1 53.8 60.8 67.8 74.7 81.7 88.8 95.7 102.6 109.4 116.3 123

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

2947.1 3003.5 3053.9 3100.9 3147 3199.5 3256.6 3307.8 3361.6 3411.3 3467.3 3523.6

13.4 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.9 14 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5

219.2 221.3 223.6 225.8 228 230.2 232.5 234.7 237 239.3 241.5 243.8

15.34 15.56 15.95 16.2 16.42 16.63 16.68 17.02 17.07 17.33 17.42 17.55

22.47 22.85 23.25 23.66 24.08 24.5 24.92 25.33 25.72 26.08 26.44 26.77

11.277 11.239 11.31 11.276 11.22 11.15 10.997 11.039 10.902 10.916 10.827 10.768

-0.078 -0.077 -0.077 -0.077 -0.076 -0.075 -0.073 -0.073 -0.072 -0.071 -0.07 -0.069

2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Growth Rate (2009-2035)

2647.6 2668.2 2687.4 2714.1 2740.1 2765.1 2789.9 2814.7 2839.3 0.40%

128.8 134.6 140.3 146.4 152.4 158.4 164.5 170.8 177.6 6.20%

627.5 647.3 663.5 681.9 698.4 713.5 727.1 739.4 753.1 8.20%

13.1 14.4 15.7 17 18.3 19.6 20.9 22.3 23.8 18.40%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.40%

15.5 18.2 21.2 24.3 27.5 30.7 34 37.2 40.5 - -

11.1 12.3 13.4 14.5 15.7 16.8 17.9 19.1 20.3 - -

1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.8 5.3 5.9 - -

129.7 136.4 142.9 149.5 155.8 161.8 167.5 173 178.3 9.80%

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.30%

1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.80%

0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.20%

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -8.70%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -

0.9 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 - -

3578.7 3637.3 3690.8 3754.9 3815.7 3874.1 3930.7 3986.2 4043.2 1.60%

14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15 15.1 15.2 15.3 0.60%

246.2 248.5 250.8 253.1 255.4 257.7 260 262.3 264.6 1.00%

17.8 17.87 18.1 17.92 17.94 17.99 18.04 18.17 18.26 1.80%

27.07 27.36 27.63 27.88 28.1 28.31 28.49 28.66 28.82 1.20%

10.799 10.729 10.762 10.557 10.484 10.438 10.396 10.408 10.402 0.50%

-0.069 -0.068 -0.068 -0.066 -0.065 -0.065 -0.064 -0.064 -0.063 -0.10%