10-i

CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 10-1

10.1.1 Approach........................................................................................................................ 10-1

10.1.2 Factors Relevant to the Analysis.................................................................................... 10-2

10.2 BASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTIONS AND 

FORECASTED EFFICIENCY TRENDS ..................................................................... 10-4

10.2.1 Central Air Conditioners................................................................................................ 10-5

10.2.1.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies ......................................................... 10-5

10.2.1.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends ...................................................................... 10-7

10.2.1.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions........................................................... 10-11

10.2.2 Heat Pumps.................................................................................................................. 10-16

10.2.2.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies ....................................................... 10-16

10.2.2.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends .................................................................... 10-19

10.2.2.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions........................................................... 10-24

10.2.3 Furnaces....................................................................................................................... 10-26

10.2.3.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies ....................................................... 10-26

10.2.3.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends .................................................................... 10-28

10.2.3.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions........................................................... 10-32

10.2.4 Standby and Off-Mode ................................................................................................ 10-36

10.2.4.1 Base Case and Standards Case Efficiencies............................................... 10-36

10.2.4.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends .................................................................... 10-39

10.3 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS................. 10-39

10.3.1 Definition ..................................................................................................................... 10-39

10.3.2 Inputs to Calculation.................................................................................................... 10-40

10.3.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit - Efficiency .................................. 10-41

10.3.2.2 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit – Standby and Off-Mode ............. 10-56

10.3.2.3 Equipment Stock........................................................................................ 10-58

10.3.2.4 Annual Energy Consumption..................................................................... 10-58

10.3.2.5 Site-to-Source Energy Conversion Factors................................................ 10-58

10.4 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL NET PRESENT VALUE........... 10-59

10.4.1 Definition ..................................................................................................................... 10-59

10.4.2 Inputs to Calculation.................................................................................................... 10-61

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit - Efficiency.................................................. 10-61

10.4.2.2 Total Installed Cost per Unit – Standby and Off-Mode............................. 10-77

10.4.2.3 Annual Operating Cost per Unit ................................................................ 10-79

10.4.2.4 Equipment Stock........................................................................................ 10-90

10.4.2.5 Increases in Total Annual Installed Cost ................................................... 10-91

10.4.2.6 Savings in Total Annual Operating Cost ................................................... 10-91

10.4.2.7 Discount Factors ........................................................................................ 10-91

10.4.2.8 Present Value of Increased Installed Cost ................................................. 10-92

10.4.2.9 Present Value of Savings........................................................................... 10-92
10-ii

10.5 RESULTS OF CALCULATIONS .............................................................................. 10-92

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs....................................................................................................... 10-93

10.5.2 National and Regional Energy Savings by Candidate Standard Level - Efficiency.... 10-93

10.5.2.1 Central Air Conditioners............................................................................ 10-94

10.5.2.2 Heat Pumps................................................................................................ 10-95

10.5.2.3 Furnaces..................................................................................................... 10-96

10.5.3 National Energy Savings by Candidate Standard Level – Standby and Off-Mode..... 10-97

10.5.3.1 Central Air Conditioners............................................................................ 10-97

10.5.3.2 Heat Pumps................................................................................................ 10-98

10.5.3.3 Furnaces..................................................................................................... 10-98

10.5.4 Calculating Annual Cost and Savings.......................................................................... 10-99

10.5.5 Net Present Value Results by Candidate Standard Level - Efficiency ........................ 10-99

10.5.5.1 Central Air Conditioners.......................................................................... 10-100

10.5.5.2 Heat Pumps.............................................................................................. 10-103

10.5.5.3 Furnaces................................................................................................... 10-104

10.5.6 Net Present Value Results by Candidate Standard Level – Standby and Off-Mode . 10-106

10.5.6.1 Central Air Conditioners.......................................................................... 10-106

10.5.6.2 Heat Pumps.............................................................................................. 10-107

10.5.6.3 Furnaces................................................................................................... 10-107

10.5.7 NES and NPV Results by Trial Standard Level ........................................................ 10-108

10.5.7.1 Trial Standard Levels for Energy Efficiency........................................... 10-108

10.5.7.2 Trial Standard Levels for Standby and Off-Mode Power........................ 10-111

10.5.7.3 NES Results by Trial Standard Level - Efficiency .................................. 10-112

10.5.7.4 NES Results by Trial Standard Level – Standby and Off-Mode ............. 10-115

10.5.7.5 NPV Results by Trial Standard Level - Efficiency.................................. 10-116

10.5.7.6 NPV Results by Trial Standard Level – Standby and Off-Mode............. 10-124

10.5.7.7 Summary of Results by Trial Standard Level.......................................... 10-125

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.2.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only Replacement Units: 

SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases in 2016......................... 10-6

Table 10.2.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only New Construction Units 

and Blower Coil Units: SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 ..................................................................................................... 10-6

Table 10.2.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: SEER Distributions for the Base 

and Standards Cases in 2016.............................................................................. 10-7

Table 10.2.4 Central Air Conditioner SWEF Growth Rates from 1993 to 2002.................... 10-8

Table 10.2.5 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only Replacement Units: Base 

Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs...................................................... 10-13

Table 10.2.6 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only New Construction Units 

and Blower Coil Units: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs....... 10-14

Table 10.2.7 Single Package Central Air Conditioner: Base Case Efficiency 

Distributions and SWEFs................................................................................. 10-15
10-iii

Table 10.2.8 Split System Heat Pump: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-18

Table 10.2.9 Single Package Heat Pump: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-18

Table 10.2.10 Heat Pump SWEF Growth Rates..................................................................... 10-20

Table 10.2.11 Split System Heat Pumps: SEER-based Base Case Efficiency 

Distributions and SWEFs................................................................................. 10-25

Table 10.2.12 Single Package Heat Pumps: SEER-based Base Case Efficiency 

Distributions and SWEFs................................................................................. 10-26

Table 10.2.13 Non-weatherized Gas Furnaces: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-27

Table 10.2.14 Mobile Home Furnaces: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-28

Table 10.2.15 Oil Furnaces: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases in 

2016.................................................................................................................. 10-28

Table 10.2.16 Non-weatherized Gas Furnace Growth Rates for Condensing Equipment 

Fractions........................................................................................................... 10-29

Table 10.2.17 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: AFUE-based Base Case Efficiency 

Distributions and SWEFs................................................................................. 10-33

Table 10.2.18 Mobile Home Furnaces: AFUE-based Base Case Efficiency Distributions 

and SWEFs....................................................................................................... 10-34

Table 10.2.19 Oil Furnaces: AFUE-based Base Case Efficiency Distributions and 

SWEFs............................................................................................................. 10-35

Table 10.2.20 Off Mode Base-Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 for Split System 

Central Air Conditioners.................................................................................. 10-37

Table 10.2.21 Off Mode Base-Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 for Single Package 

Central Air Conditioners.................................................................................. 10-37

Table 10.2.22 Off Mode Base-Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 for Split System and 

Single Package Heat Pumps............................................................................. 10-38

Table 10.2.23 Standby Mode and Off Mode Base-Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 

for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces................................................................. 10-38

Table 10.2.24 Standby Mode and Off Mode Base-Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 

for Oil-Fired Furnaces...................................................................................... 10-38

Table 10.2.25 Standby Mode and Off Mode Base-Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 

for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces....................................................................... 10-39

Table 10.3.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and 

New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016.......................... 10-42

Table 10.3.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only Units, New Construction 

Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy 

Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016....................................... 10-42

Table 10.3.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: Replacement 

and New Owner Markets, Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016.......................... 10-44
10-iv

Table 10.3.4 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: New 

Construction, Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy 

Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016....................................... 10-44

Table 10.3.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016.................................................................................................................. 10-46

Table 10.3.6 Split System Heat Pump: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016.......................... 10-47

Table 10.3.7 Single Package Heat Pump: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016.......................... 10-49

Table 10.3.8 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 ................................................................................................... 10-51

Table 10.3.9 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for 

Base and Standards Cases in 2016................................................................... 10-52

Table 10.3.10 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016.................................................................................................................. 10-53

Table 10.3.11 Mobile Home Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for 

Base and Standards Cases in 2016................................................................... 10-54

Table 10.3.12 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ............. 10-55

Table 10.3.13 Oil Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 ................................................................................................... 10-56

Table 10.3.14 Central Air Conditioner: Shipment-Weighted Off-Mode Average per-Unit 

Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ............. 10-57

Table 10.3.15 Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Off-Mode Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016.......................... 10-57

Table 10.3.16 Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Standby and Off-Mode Average per-Unit 

Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ............. 10-58

Table 10.4.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and 

New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total 

Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016...................................... 10-63

Table 10.4.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost 

for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ............................................................. 10-63

Table 10.4.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units Replacement 

and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total

Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016...................................... 10-65
10-v

Table 10.4.4 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost 

for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ............................................................. 10-65

Table 10.4.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 ................................................................................................... 10-66

Table 10.4.6 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, Replacement and New Owner 

Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for 

Base and Standards Cases in 2016................................................................... 10-67

Table 10.4.7 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016.................................................................................................................. 10-68

Table 10.4.8 Split System Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-69

Table 10.4.9 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016.................................................................................................................. 10-70

Table 10.4.10 Single Package Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-70

Table 10.4.11 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016.................................................................................................................. 10-72

Table 10.4.12 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-72

Table 10.4.13 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ............ 10-74

Table 10.4.14 Mobile Home Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-74

Table 10.4.15 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016........................... 10-76

Table 10.4.16 Oil Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016.................................................................................................................. 10-76

Table 10.4.17 Central Air Conditioner: Shipment-Weighted Off-Mode Average per-Unit 

Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016............................. 10-78

Table 10.4.18 Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Off-Mode Average per-Unit Total 

Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016...................................... 10-78

Table 10.4.19 Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Standby and Off-Mode Average per-Unit 

Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016............................. 10-78
10-vi

Table 10.4.20 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only, Replacement and New 

Owner Units: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair and 

Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ............................... 10-80

Table 10.4.21 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only, New Construction: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for 

Base and Standards Cases in 2016................................................................... 10-80

Table 10.4.22 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 .................................................................................. 10-82

Table 10.4.23 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016.................................................................................................................. 10-83

Table 10.4.24 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair 

and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016....................... 10-84

Table 10.4.25 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Repair and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ........... 10-86

Table 10.4.26 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Repair and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 ........... 10-87

Table 10.4.27 Mobile Home Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair and 

Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016.............................. 10-88

Table 10.4.28 Oil Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair and 

Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016.............................. 10-90

Table 10.5.1 Inputs to Calculations ...................................................................................... 10-93

Table 10.5.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy 

Savings from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector....................... 10-94

Table 10.5.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy 

Savings from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector....................... 10-95

Table 10.5.4 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional Energy 

Savings from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector....................... 10-95

Table 10.5.5 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National Energy Savings from 

2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector ............................................. 10-96

Table 10.5.6 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Cumulative National and Regional 

Energy Savings from 2016-2045 ..................................................................... 10-96

Table 10.5.7 Mobile Home Furnaces: Cumulative National and Regional Energy 

Savings from 2016-2045.................................................................................. 10-96

Table 10.5.8 Oil Furnaces: Cumulative National and Regional Energy Savings from 

2016-2045 ........................................................................................................ 10-97

Table 10.5.9 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Off-Mode National Energy Savings 

from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector..................................... 10-98

Table 10.5.10 Heat Pumps: Cumulative Off-Mode National Energy Savings from 2016-

2045.................................................................................................................. 10-98

Table 10.5.11 Furnaces: Cumulative Standby and Off-Mode National Energy Savings 

from 2016-2045 ............................................................................................... 10-98
10-vii

Table 10.5.12 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National 

and Regional NPV Results (3% Discount Rate)............................................ 10-101

Table 10.5.13 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National 

and Regional NPV Results (7% Discount Rate)............................................ 10-102

Table 10.5.14 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative 

National NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector ......................... 10-103

Table 10.5.15 Split System Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector........................................ 10-104

Table 10.5.16 Single Package Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and 

Regional NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector......................... 10-104

Table 10.5.17 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the 

Residential Sector .......................................................................................... 10-105

Table 10.5.18 Mobile Home Furnaces: NPV Results for the Residential Sector................. 10-105

Table 10.5.19 Oil Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the Residential Sector............... 10-106

Table 10.5.20 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off-Mode NPV Results 

(3% Discount Rate)........................................................................................ 10-106

Table 10.5.21 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off-Mode NPV Results, 

Residential and Commercial Sector (7% Discount Rate).............................. 10-107

Table 10.5.22 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV 

Results, Residential and Commercial Sector................................................. 10-107

Table 10.5.23 Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the Residential Sector..................... 10-107

Table 10.5.24 Trial Standard Levels for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps and 

Furnaces (Energy Efficiency) ........................................................................ 10-110

Table 10.5.25 Trial Standard Levels for Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps, and 

Furnaces (Standby Mode and Off Mode Power)........................................... 10-112

Table 10.5.26 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NES Results 

from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector................................... 10-112

Table 10.5.27 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy 

Savings Results from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector ........ 10-113

Table 10.5.28 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results 

from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector................................... 10-113

Table 10.5.29 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results 

from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector................................... 10-114

Table 10.5.30 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Cumulative National Energy Savings 

Results from 2016-2045 for the Residential Sector....................................... 10-114

Table 10.5.31 Mobile Home Furnaces: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results 

from 2016-2045 for the Residential Sector.................................................... 10-115

Table 10.5.32 Oil Furnaces: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results from 2016-

2045 for the Residential Sector...................................................................... 10-115

Table 10.5.33 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Off-Mode National Energy Savings 

from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector................................... 10-116

Table 10.5.34 Heat Pumps: Cumulative Off-Mode National Energy Savings from 2016-

2045................................................................................................................ 10-116
10-viii

Table 10.5.35 Furnaces: Cumulative Standby and Off-Mode National Energy Savings 

from 2016-2045 ............................................................................................. 10-116

Table 10.5.36 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NPV Results 

(3% Discount Rate)........................................................................................ 10-117

Table 10.5.37 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NPV Results 

(7% Discount Rate)........................................................................................ 10-117

Table 10.5.38 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NPV 

Results, Residential and Commercial Sector*............................................... 10-118

Table 10.5.39 Single Package Central Air Conditioners Sum of Net Benefits: Cumulative 

National NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector with Present 

Value of Monetized Emissions and Standby and Off-Mode Net Benefits* .. 10-118

Table 10.5.40 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National NPV Results ..................... 10-120

Table 10.5.41 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National NPV Results* ............... 10-121

Table 10.5.42 Single Package Heat Pumps Sum of Net Benefits:: Cumulative National 

NPV Results with Present Value of Monetized Emissions and Standby and 

Off-mode Net Benefits*................................................................................. 10-122

Table 10.5.43 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Discounted Regional NPV Results for 

the Residential Sector .................................................................................... 10-123

Table 10.5.44 Mobile Home Furnaces: Discounted Regional NPV Results for the 

Residential Sector .......................................................................................... 10-123

Table 10.5.45 Oil Furnaces: Discounted Regional NPV Results for the Residential Sector 10-124

Table 10.5.46 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off-Mode NPV Results, 

Residential and Commercial Sector (3% Discount Rate).............................. 10-124

Table 10.5.47 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off-Mode NPV Results, 

Residential and Commercial Sector (7% Discount Rate).............................. 10-125

Table 10.5.48 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV 

Results, Residential and Commercial Sector................................................. 10-125

Table 10.5.49 Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the Residential Sector..................... 10-125

Table 10.5.50 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces: Cumulative National 

Energy Savings for Energy Efficiency TSLs for 2016-2045......................... 10-126

Table 10.5.51 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces: Cumulative National 

Energy Savings for Standby Mode and Off Mode Power TSLs for 2016-

2045................................................................................................................ 10-126

Table 10.5.52 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces: Cumulative Net 

Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Energy Efficiency TSLs................ 10-126

Table 10.5.53 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces: Cumulative Net 

Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Standby Mode and Off Mode 

Power TSLs.................................................................................................... 10-127

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.2.1 Central Air Conditioner Historical SWEFs with Linear Fits............................. 10-8
10-ix

Figure 10.2.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only Replacement Units: 

SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the 

Base Case and Standards Cases....................................................................... 10-10

Figure 10.2.3 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only New Construction Units 

and Blower Coil Units: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for Base Case and Standards Cases.................................... 10-11

Figure 10.2.4 Single Package Central Air Conditioner: SEER-based Historical SWEFs 

and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases ............. 10-11

Figure 10.2.5 Split System Heat Pump: HSPF and SEER relationship ................................. 10-16

Figure 10.2.6 Single Package Heat Pump: HSPF and SEER relationship............................. 10-17

Figure 10.2.7 Heat Pump Historical SWEFs based on SEER with Linear Fits..................... 10-19

Figure 10.2.8 Split System Heat Pump: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases....................................... 10-21

Figure 10.2.9 Split System Heat Pump: HSPF-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases....................................... 10-22

Figure 10.2.10 Single Package Heat Pump: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and 

Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases.................... 10-23

Figure 10.2.11 Single Package Heat Pump: HSPF-based Historical SWEFs and 

Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases.................... 10-23

Figure 10.2.12 Non-weatherized Gas Furnace Historical Fractions of Condensing 

Equipment by Region with Linear Fits............................................................ 10-29

Figure 10.2.13 Non-weatherized Gas Furnaces: AFUE-based Historical SWEFs and 

Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases.................... 10-31

Figure 10.2.14 Mobile Home Furnaces: AFUE-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases....................................... 10-31

Figure 10.2.15 Oil Furnaces: AFUE-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency 

Trends for the Base and Standards Cases........................................................ 10-32

Figure 10.3.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and 

New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045 

Forecast Period................................................................................................. 10-43

Figure 10.3.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy 

Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045 Forecast 

Period ............................................................................................................... 10-45

Figure 10.3.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over 

the 2016-2045 Forecast Period ........................................................................ 10-46

Figure 10.3.4 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-

2045 Forecast Period........................................................................................ 10-48

Figure 10.3.5 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-

2045 Forecast Period........................................................................................ 10-48
10-x

Figure 10.3.6 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Annual Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over 

the 2016-2045 Forecast Period ........................................................................ 10-50

Figure 10.3.7 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Annual Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over 

the 2016-2045 Forecast Period ........................................................................ 10-50

Figure 10.3.8 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and 

CSL 1 over the 2016-2045 Forecast Period..................................................... 10-52

Figure 10.3.9 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 1 over 

the 2016-2045 Forecast Period ........................................................................ 10-54

Figure 10.3.10 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016-

2045 Forecast Period........................................................................................ 10-56

Figure 10.3.11 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors.................................................................. 10-59

Figure 10.4.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and 

New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost 

for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045 Forecast Period ................. 10-64

Figure 10.4.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the 

Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045 Forecast Period............................. 10-66

Figure 10.4.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 2 over 

the 2016-2045 Forecast Period ........................................................................ 10-67

Figure 10.4.4 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-

2045 Forecast Period........................................................................................ 10-69

Figure 10.4.5 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-

2045 Forecast Period........................................................................................ 10-71

Figure 10.4.6 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016-

2045 Forecast Period........................................................................................ 10-73

Figure 10.4.7 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average 

Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016-2045 

Forecast Period................................................................................................. 10-75

Figure 10.4.8 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total 

Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016-2045 Forecast 

Period ............................................................................................................... 10-77

Figure 10.4.9 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Replacement and New 

Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and 

Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045 

Forecast Period................................................................................................. 10-81
10-xi

Figure 10.4.10 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: ShipmentWeighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base 

Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045 Forecast Period ..................................... 10-82

Figure 10.4.11 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average 

Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over 

the 2016-2045 Forecast Period ........................................................................ 10-83

Figure 10.4.12 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair 

and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045 

Forecast Period................................................................................................. 10-85

Figure 10.4.13 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair 

and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045 

Forecast Period................................................................................................. 10-86

Figure 10.4.14 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual 

Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 

2016-2045 Forecast Period .............................................................................. 10-87

Figure 10.4.15 Mobile Home Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and 

Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016-2045 

Forecast Period................................................................................................. 10-89

Figure 10.4.16 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual 

Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 

2016-2045 Forecast Period .............................................................................. 10-90

Figure 10.5.1 Non-Discounted Annual Increases in Installed Cost and Savings in 

Operating Cost for Split System Coil-Only Central Air Conditioners, CSL 

2........................................................................................................................ 10-99
10-1

CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES

10.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter describes the method that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) developed 

to estimate the energy savings, and net present value of those energy savings, that consumers 

would receive from potential new energy efficiency standards for residential and commercial 

consumers of central air conditioners (CAC) and heat pumps (HP), and furnaces. This chapter 

examines the national and regional energy savings (NES) attributable to each CSL and TSL, 

along with the energy savings specific to three regions based on climate for central air 

conditioners and heat pumps: a hot-humid climate (the Southeast), a hot-dry climate (the 

Southwest), the two regions based on climate for furnaces: North and South, and the rest of the 

Nation. The results presented here for the nation as a whole and for each of the regions include: 

(1) potential energy consumption and savings; (2) the monetary value of energy savings 

attributable to each CSL; (3) increased total installed costs (purchase price plus installation costs) 

attributable to each CSL; and (4) the net present value (NPV) of energy savings (the difference 

between the value of energy savings and increased total installed costs in 2009$). 

DOE determined both the energy savings and NPV for each CSL considered for the 

product comprising central air conditioners and heat pumps and furnaces. The calculations were 

performed using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is accessible on the Internet 

(http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/central_ac_hp.html). 

The spreadsheet model, termed the National Impact Analysis (NIA) model, calculates energy 

savings and NPV for the nation and for each of the regions analyzed. Details regarding and 

instructions for using the NIA model are provided in appendix 10-A.

10.1.1 Approach

The critical factors that govern energy consumption by central air conditioners and heat 

pumps and furnaces are: (1) the quantities shipped; (2) financial considerations such as consumer

response to changes in total installed cost, operating expenses, and household income; and (3) 

voluntary programs that promote higher-efficiency products. Chapter 9 describes in detail the 

shipments model that DOE used to forecast future purchases of furnaces and central air 

conditioners and heat pumps. Chapter 9 includes detailed descriptions of consumers’ sensitivities 

to total installed cost, operating expense, and income (otherwise known as elasticities), and how 

DOE captured those elasticities within the NIA model.

Voluntary programs increase the market share of energy efficient equipment. Central air 

conditioner, heat pump, and furnace efficiency have grown since the early 1990s in part due to 

voluntary programs. Consequently, DOE assumed that market-based initiatives would continue 

to have the same effect on the efficiency of product shipments as it has in the past. Details on 

how this effect was captured in the analysis are detailed below in section 10.2.
10-2

10.1.2 Factors Relevant to the Analysis

The product and product classes being considered for new standards are described in 

detail in chapter 3. Below is a brief description of the product, product classes, and other factors 

that were considered in evaluating the effects of potential new energy standards.

• Product being considered:

o Central air conditioners, heat pumps and furnaces.

• Product classes within these products:

a

o split system air conditioners,

o single package air conditioners,

o split system heat pumps,

o single package heat pumps,

o non-weatherized gas furnaces,

o mobile home furnaces,

o oil furnaces, and

o electric furnaces.b

• Markets: 

o Central air conditioners: 93 percent used in residential settings; 7 percent used in 

commercial settings. 

 Split systems comprise 90.4 percent of both the residential and 

commercial markets.

 Single package systems represent 9.6 percent of both the residential and 

commercial markets.

o Heat pumps: 93 percent used in residential settings; 7 percent used in commercial 

settings. 

 Split systems comprise 87.7 percent of both the residential and 

commercial markets.

 Single package systems represent 12.3 percent of both the residential and 

commercial markets.

o Furnaces: 100 percent used in residential settings. 

 Non-weatherized gas furnaces comprise 76.8 percent of the market.

 Mobile home furnaces comprise 3.7 of the market.

 Oil furnaces comprise 2.1 percent of the market.

 Electric furnaces comprise 17.4 percent of the market.

• Channels (i.e., product placement):

o Central air conditioners are purchased for:

 new construction,

 

a There are three other product classes including (1) small duct high velocity (SDHV) systems, (2) space-constrained 

air conditioners, and (3) space-constrained heat pumps which are not being analyzed explicitly due to lack of 

available data and limited product offerings. Because the above three product classes comprise a very small 

percentage of the overall market, the national impacts determined from potential energy efficiency standards are not 

significantly impacted by amended energy efficiency standards from these three product classes.

b Only standby and off mode power consumption standard levels are considered for electric furnaces.
10-3

 replacements, and

 existing households and commercial building owners that do not already 

own the product (hereafter referred to as “new owners”).

o Heat pumps are purchased for:

 new construction,

 replacements, and

 new owners.

o Furnaces are purchased for: 

 new construction,

 replacements, and

 new owners.

• Effects of increased purchase price, operating cost savings, and household income:

o Central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces: Evaluated for replacement 

purchases only. Determined the fraction of affected consumers that would repair 

their product rather than replace it, extending the life of the product by six years.

• Equipment switching:

o Central air conditioners and heat pumps: Evaluated solely for split systems; 

specifically, efficiency standards combinations which propose higher levels for 

heat pumps than for air conditioners. Determined the fraction of heat pump 

consumers that would switch to air conditioner and electric furnace combinations.

o Furnaces: Did not evaluate equipment switching to electric space-conditioning 

systems.

• Regional standards considered:c

o Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumpsd

 hot-humid region (consisting of states in the Southeastern U.S. including 

Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, 

Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, 

Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia; Hawaii is also included);

 hot-dry region (consisting of states in the Southwest including Arizona, 

Nevada, and New Mexico; California is also included); 

 the rest of the Nation; that is, the remaining 33 states including Alaska.

o Furnaces

 North region (consisting of states in the rest of the Nation as defined for 

central air conditioners and heat pumps);

 South region (consisting of states in the hot-humid and hot-dry regions as 

defined for central air conditioners and heat pumps).

• Standard Levels on energy efficiency:

o 15 levels for split system air conditioners, coil-only units and blower coil units, 

 

c Regional standards are being considered in addition to standards for the Nation as a whole.

d For single-package air conditioners and single-package heat pumps, DOE has not analyzed the regional standards 

on a national basis because the standards being considered are identical in each region. Additionally, given the low 

level of shipments of these products, DOE determined that an analysis of regional standards would not produce 

significant energy savings differences in comparison to a single national standard. DOE made a similar 

determination for oil-fired furnaces.
10-4

o seven levels for single package air conditioners, 

o 13 levels for split system heat pumps,

o seven levels for single package heat pumps,

o four levels for non-weatherized gas furnaces,

o three levels for mobile home furnaces, and

o four levels for oil furnaces.

• Standard Levels on standby and off mode power consumption:

o three levels for split system air conditioners,

o three levels for single package air conditioners, 

o two levels for split system heat pumps,

o two levels for single package heat pumps, 

o two levels for non-weatherized gas furnaces, 

o two levels for mobile home gas furnaces,

o two levels for oil furnaces, and

o two levels for electric furnaces.

10.2 BASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTIONS AND 

FORECASTED EFFICIENCY TRENDS

A key component of DOE’s estimates of national and regional energy savings and net 

present value (NPV) is the energy efficiency forecasted over time for the base case (without new 

standards) and for each of the standards cases (with potential new standards). The forecasted 

efficiencies represent the annual shipment-weighted energy efficiency (SWEF) of the product 

classes under consideration from the assumed effective date of a new standard to 30 years after 

that date. Key inputs to the calculation of both national and regional energy savings and NPV 

depend on estimated energy efficiencies. Per-unit annual energy consumption, for example, is a 

direct function of product efficiency and dictates energy savings. Chapter 7, Energy Use 

Determination, describes how per-unit energy consumption changes as a function of efficiency 

for each product class. With regard to the NPV, two inputs, the per-unit total installed cost and

the per-unit annual operating cost, depend on efficiency. The per-unit total installed cost is a 

direct function of efficiency because more efficient products are assumed to be more expensive 

than their less efficient counterparts. Because per-unit annual operating cost is a direct function 

of per-unit annual energy consumption, it too is dependent on product efficiency. Chapter 8, 

Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) and Payback Period (PBP) Analysis, describes how per-unit total 

installed cost changes as a function of efficiency for each product class. The above and all other 

inputs to the calculation of energy savings and NPV are discussed in sections 10.3.2 and 10.4.2. 

The three sections below (sections 10.2.1, 10.2.2, and 10.2.3) describe how DOE developed base 

and standards case efficiency distributions and forecasted efficiency trends.

As noted in section 10.1.2, DOE constructed and conducted its NIA to analyze regional 

standards and standards for the Nation as a whole. For central air conditioners and heat pumps, 

three specific regions were analyzed (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country), while for 

furnaces, two regions were analyzed (North and South). For central air conditioners, heat pumps,

mobile home furnaces, and oil furnaces, DOE only received efficiency data at the national level. 

As a result, DOE assumed that the efficiency distributions and trends developed for the entire 
10-5

Nation are also representative at the regional level (i.e., efficiency distributions and trends do not 

vary by region). For non-weatherized gas furnaces, DOE received efficiency data at a regional 

level, thereby allowing it to construct efficiency distributions and trends at a regional level.

10.2.1 Central Air Conditioners

10.2.1.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies

For both central air conditioner product classes—split systems and single package 

systems—DOE developed product efficiencies in the base case by assigning equipment to 

specific efficiency levels for the year 2016. In other words, DOE determined the distribution of

product efficiencies currently in the marketplace to develop a SEER-based SWEF for the year 

2016. DOE derived its base case efficiency distributions for split system and single package 

central air conditioners on SWEF data provided by AHRI in combination with the range of 

product offerings in AHRI’s listing of certified unitary air-conditioner equipment. For more 

details on the derivation of the split system and single package base case efficiencies, refer to 

chapter 8, LCC and PBP Analysis. 

 

For its determination of standards-case efficiencies, DOE assumed a “roll-up” scenario to 

establish the SWEF for the year that standards are assumed to become effective (i.e., 2016). 

DOE assumed that product efficiencies in the base case that did not meet the standard under 

consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. In addition, DOE assumed that all 

product efficiencies in the base case that were above the standard under consideration would not 

be affected. 

Table 10.2.1 the SEER-based efficiency distributions and resulting SWEF for the base 

case and standards cases for split system coil-only replacement unit central air conditioners in the 

year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). Table 10.2.2 presents the SEER-based 

efficiency distributions and resulting SWEF for the base case and standards cases for split system 

coil-only new construction units and blower coil units in the year 2016. As described in chapter 

8, DOE estimated that split system coil-only new construction units would be installed in the 

same manner as split system blower coil only units. As result, coil-only new construction units 

are characterized in the exact same manner as blower coil units (i.e., same cost-efficiency 

relationships, same installation costs, same repair and maintenance costs, same annual energy 

use, and same forecasted efficiencies). Table 10.2.3 presents the SEER-based efficiency 

distributions and resulting SWEF for the base case and standards cases for single package central 

air conditioners in the year 2016. Each table clearly shows how each standards case, under a 

“roll-up” scenario, affects the efficiency distribution.
10-6

Table 10.2.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only Replacement Units: 

SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

CSL SEER

Market Share

Base 

Case

Standards Case

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Baseline 13.0 24.6% - - - - - - - - -

1 13.5 48.2% 72.8% - - - - - - - -

2 14.0 4.1% 4.1% 76.9% - - - - - - -

3 14.5 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 84.4% - - - - - -

4 15.0 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 90.3% - - - - -

5 15.5 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 92.3% - - - -

6 16.0 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 99.5% - - -

7 16.5 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 100.0% - -

8 17.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100.0% -

9 18.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100.0%

SWEF 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00

Table 10.2.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only New Construction Units 

and Blower Coil Units: SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 

CSL SEER

Market Share

Base 

Case

Standards Case

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Baseline 13.0 18.5% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

1 13.5 36.2% 54.6% - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2 14.0 3.1% 3.1% 57.7% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

3 14.5 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 63.3% - - - - - - - - - - - -

4 15.0 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 67.7% - - - - - - - - - - -

5 15.5 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 69.2% - - - - - - - - - -

6 16.0 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 74.6% - - - - - - - - -

7 16.5 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 75.0% - - - - - - - -

8 17.0 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 85.0% - - - - - - -

9 18.0 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 92.0% - - - - - -

10 19.0 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 95.0% - - - - -

11 20.0 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 97.0% - - - -

12 21.0 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 99.0% - - -

13 22.0 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 100.0% - -

14 23.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100.0% -

15 24.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100.0%

SWEF 14.92 15.01 15.28 15.57 15.89 16.23 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 23.0 24.5
10-7

Table 10.2.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: SEER Distributions for the 

Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

CSL SEER

Market Share

Base Case

Standards Case

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Baseline 13.0 62.7% - - - - - - -

1 13.5 20.0% 82.7% - - - - - -

2 14.0 14.3% 14.3% 97.0% - - - - -

3 14.5 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 99.0% - - - -

4 15.0 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 100.0% - - -

5 15.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% - -

6 16.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% -

7 16.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

SWEF 13.29 13.61 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.60

10.2.1.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends

Historical Efficiency Trends

Using the SWEF for the year 2016 as a starting point, DOE developed base-case 

forecasted efficiency trends based on assumptions regarding future efficiency growth. To 

estimate SWEFs over the 30 year forecast spanning 2016–2045, DOE reviewed historical SWEF 

data provided by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) spanning the 

years 1992 to 2009.1

Figure 10.2.1

 The year 1992 is the year in which the first set of standards for central air 

conditioner and heat pumps became effective. The year 2006 is the year in which an updated set 

of standards became effective. shows the SWEFs for split system and single 

package central air conditioners. The figure also presents the linear fit to each product class’ 

SWEF data series between the years 1993 and 2002. DOE considered only the 1993 to 2002 time 

period to forecast SWEF growth rates in order to factor out: (1) any lingering effects on 

equipment SWEFs from industry efforts to comply with the 1992 standards; (2) any anticipatory 

efforts by the industry to comply with the 2006 standards that DOE issued in 2001; and (3) the 

effects of recent Federal tax credits to promote the purchase of high-efficiency central air 

conditioners and heat pumps. The linear fits have high coefficients of determination, i.e., linear 

fits provide a good estimate of the SWEF growth rate. Table 10.2.4 provides a summary of the 

SWEF growth rates for each product class during 1993 to 2002. 
10-8

Figure 10.2.1 Central Air Conditioner Historical SWEFs with Linear Fits

Table 10.2.4 Central Air Conditioner SWEF Growth Rates from 1993 to 2002

SWEF Growth Rate

Product Class SEER increase per year

Split System Air Conditioners 0.0647

Single Package Air Conditioners 0.0752

Base Case Efficiency Trends

Because various market-pull programs such as Energy Star and utility rebate programs 

were in existence from 1992 to 2003, the SWEF growth rate evident in the historical data was 

likely due in part to these market-pull programs. Any market pull programs in effect during 

1992 to 2003 were less effective than the Federal tax credit programs in existence from 2006-

2007 and 2009-2011 as the more recent tax credit programs have resulted in a greater rate of 

adoption of more efficient products. DOE assumed that market pull programs in existence during 

1992-2003 are more reflective of typical market-pull effectiveness, i.e., the recent Federal tax 

credits are seen as extraordinarily aggressive. As a result, DOE applied the SWEF growth rates 

in Table 10.2.4 to the base case SWEFs in 2016 to forecast annual SWEFs for the central air 

conditioner product classes from 2016 to 2045. Application of the SWEF growth rates in this 

manner assumes that future market-pull programs will be as effective at increasing product 

efficiency as the programs in existence from 1992 to 2003.

Standards Case Efficiency Trends

Split A/C

SEER = 0.06472 * year - 118.47880

R2 = 0.93191

Package A/C

SEER = 0.07524 * year - 139.64023

R2

 = 0.90774

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Year

Shipment-Weighted SEER

Split A/C

Package A/C

Linear (Split A/C)

Linear (Package A/C)
10-9

To develop standards case forecasted SWEFs, DOE developed growth trends for each 

candidate standard level that maintained the same per-unit average total installed cost difference 

for the year 2016 between the base case and each standards case over the entire forecast period 

(2016–2045). DOE’s approach for developing standards case SWEFs in this manner assumes 

that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a 

rate that ensures that the average total installed cost difference between the standards case and 

base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. Because the total installed costs versus 

efficiency relationships for many of the standard levels for each product class demonstrate an 

increasing cost rate for more efficient products, the SWEF growth rate for many of the standards 

cases is lower than the SWEF growth rate for the base case. 

DOE modified the general approach for split system central air conditioner coil-only 

replacement units at 15 SEER and above, for which consumers would incur a very large 

additional cost to install a furnace fan kit (see chapter 8 regarding installation costs for more 

details). DOE believes that few consumers would choose to incur such a cost, so it assumed that 

the market share of units at 15 SEER and above would not increase for the base case (13 SEER) 

and the 13.5, 14, and 14.5, 15, and 15.5 SEER standards cases. For standards cases of 16 SEER 

and above, the market share of efficiencies above the considered standards were allowed to 

grow. Because the above method of forecasting air conditioner efficiency results in frozen 

market shares of products with efficiencies of 15 SEER and greater, DOE investigated an 

efficiency trend sensitivity for split system central air conditioner coil-only replacement units 

that allows some migration of products to 15 SEER and above. Appendix 10-D provides a 

description of this efficiency trend sensitivity and the impact it has on the NES and NPV of 

amended efficiency standards for split system central air conditioners.

For single package air conditioners, DOE observes that the market conditions are 

somewhat distinct from split system air conditioners as 97 percent of the single package market 

is comprised of low efficiency products of 13 to 14 SEER. In addition, DOE observes that 

higher efficiency single-package systems are more expensive relative to the lower efficiency 

models compared to the general cost structure for split system units. This indicates that 

efficiency trends for single-package systems are likely to be smaller than those for split systems. 

Nonetheless, DOE modeled the efficiency trends for single-package units the same as it modeled 

the trends for blower-coil split systems. While DOE believes that this approach is conservative, 

DOE did not have the data available to calibrate a more precise forecast of efficiency trends for 

this product class. An overestimate of the efficiency trend will likely lead to an overestimate of 

equipment costs resulting from a standard for these products. As a result, net consumer benefits 

from a standard are likely to be higher than the DOE estimate provided in this TSD. 

Depicting Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Trends

Figure 10.2.8 shows the base case historical SWEFs, the base case forecasted efficiency 

trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency trend for split system coil-only replacement 

units. Figure 10.2.3 shows the SEER-based base case historical SWEFs, the base case forecasted 

efficiency trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency trend for coil-only new 

construction units and blower coil units. Figure 10.2.4 shows the SEER-based SWEFs for single 

package central air conditioners. Note that for some standards cases, the efficiency trend does not 

increase past the Max Tech level. The Max Tech levels for split system coil-only units is 18 
10-10

SEER, while the Max Tech level for coil-only new construction and blower coil units is 24.5

SEER. The Max Tech level for single package units is 16.5 SEER. 

Figure 10.2.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only Replacement Units: 

SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the 

Base Case and Standards Cases

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

SWEF (SEER)

Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 

CSL 4: 15 SEER 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER

CSL 8: 17 SEER

CSL 9: 18 SEER 

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

SWEF (SEER)

Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 

CSL 4: 15 SEER 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER 

CSL 8: 17 SEER 

CSL 9: 18 SEER 

CSl 10: 19 SEER 

CSL 11: 20 SEER 

CSL 12: 21 SEER 

CSL 13: 22 SEER 

CSL 14: 23 SEER 

CSL 15: 24.5 SEER 
10-11

Figure 10.2.3 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only New Construction Units

and Blower Coil Units: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for Base Case and Standards Cases

Figure 10.2.4 Single Package Central Air Conditioner: SEER-based Historical SWEFs 

and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

10.2.1.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions

Once DOE developed base case and standards case efficiency trends, it derived a 

distribution of product efficiencies from the forecasted SWEFs for each year of the analysis 

period (2016–2045) by developing appropriate market shares for the various standard levels. 

As specified in Table 10.2.1, Table 10.2.2, and Table 10.2.3, DOE developed the product 

efficiency distributions for the year the standard is assumed to become effective (2016) using a 

“roll-up” scenario. For subsequent years (2017–2045), DOE assigned the market shares to the 

standard levels so that the resulting calculated SWEF remained equal to the forecasted SWEF. 

This assignment was conducted by pulling market shares from lower efficiency levels to higher 

efficiency levels until the calculated SWEF equaled the forecasted value. 

Table 10.2.5 provides an example of a forecasted efficiency distribution—the specific 

case of the forecasted efficiency distribution for the base case (without standards) for split 

system coil-only replacement units. Table 10.2.6 does the same for coil-only new construction 

units and blower coil units. As an example for single package central air conditioners, Table 

10.2.7 provides the forecasted efficiency distributions for the base case. The tables also provide 

the resulting SWEF for each year during the forecast period. The NIA spreadsheet (detailed in 

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

SWEF (SEER)

Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 

CSL 4: 15 SEER 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER 
10-12

Appendix 10-A) provides the forecasted efficiency distributions for all the standards cases for 

both split system and single package central air conditioners.
10-13

Table 10.2.5 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only Replacement Units: 

Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

Year

Market Shares by SEER Level

13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 18 SWEF

2016 24.6% 48.2% 4.1% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.80

2017 7.8% 65.1% 4.1% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.88

2018 0.0% 65.2% 11.7% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.96

2019 0.0% 49.8% 27.1% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.03

2020 0.0% 34.3% 42.7% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.11

2021 0.0% 18.6% 58.3% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.19

2022 0.0% 3.0% 74.0% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.27

2023 0.0% 0.0% 64.1% 20.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.35

2024 0.0% 0.0% 48.2% 36.1% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.43

2025 0.0% 0.0% 32.3% 52.1% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.51

2026 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 68.1% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.59

2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67
10-14

Table 10.2.6 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only New Construction Units 

and Blower Coil Units: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

Year

Market Shares by SEER Level

13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.5 SWEF

2016 18.5% 36.2% 3.1% 5.6% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.92

2017 2.0% 52.7% 3.1% 5.6% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.00

2018 0.0% 40.0% 17.7% 5.6% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.08

2019 0.0% 23.3% 34.4% 5.6% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.17

2020 0.0% 6.5% 51.2% 5.6% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.25

2021 0.0% 0.0% 47.3% 15.9% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.33

2022 0.0% 0.0% 30.4% 32.9% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.42

2023 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 49.9% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.50

2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 59.4% 8.2% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.59

2025 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.2% 25.5% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.68

2026 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.9% 42.8% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.76

2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 60.3% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.85

2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 57.6% 11.7% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.94

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.9% 29.3% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.03

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 47.0% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.11

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 64.8% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.20

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55.7% 18.9% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.29

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.7% 36.9% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.38

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 55.1% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.47

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 73.3% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.57

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 57.6% 17.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.66

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.2% 35.8% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.75

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.7% 54.3% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.84

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 73.0% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.93

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.3% 26.7% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.03

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.5% 45.5% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.12

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 64.5% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.22

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 83.5% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.31

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 76.2% 15.8% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.41

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.5% 25.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.50
10-15

Table 10.2.7 Single Package Central Air Conditioner: Base Case Efficiency 

Distributions and SWEFs

Year

Market Share by SEER Level

13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 SWEF

2016 62.7% 20.0% 14.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.29

2017 43.9% 38.8% 14.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.39

2018 25.0% 57.7% 14.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.48

2019 5.8% 76.9% 14.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.58

2020 0.0% 69.3% 27.7% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.67

2021 0.0% 49.9% 47.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.77

2022 0.0% 30.4% 66.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.87

2023 0.0% 10.8% 86.2% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.97

2024 0.0% 0.0% 88.0% 11.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.07

2025 0.0% 0.0% 68.0% 31.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.16

2026 0.0% 0.0% 48.0% 51.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.27

2027 0.0% 0.0% 27.7% 71.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.37

2028 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 91.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.47

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 85.9% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.57

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.2% 34.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44.4% 55.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.78

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 76.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.88

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 97.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.99

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 81.1% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.09

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 59.7% 40.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.20

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 38.2% 61.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.31

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 83.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.42

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 94.7% 5.3% 0.0% 15.53

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 72.6% 27.4% 0.0% 15.64

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.5% 49.5% 0.0% 15.75

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.2% 71.8% 0.0% 15.86

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 94.3% 0.0% 15.97

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 83.1% 16.9% 16.08

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.3% 39.7% 16.20

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.3% 62.7% 16.31
10-16

10.2.2 Heat Pumps

10.2.2.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies

For both heat pump product classes—split systems and single package systems—DOE 

developed product efficiencies in the base case by assigning equipment to specific efficiency 

levels for the year 2016. In other words, DOE determined the distribution of product efficiencies 

currently in the marketplace to develop a SEER-based SWEF for the year 2016. DOE derived its 

base-case efficiency distributions for split system and single package heat pumps on SWEF data 

provided by AHRI in combination with the range of product offerings in AHRI’s listing of 

certified unitary heat pump equipment. For more details on the derivation of the split system and 

single package base case efficiencies, refer to chapter 8, LCC and PBP Analysis. 

AHRI’s SWEF data for heat pumps were based solely on SEER—not HSPF. To 

determine HSPF-based SWEFs for the base case, DOE used the SEER and HSPF pairings 

presented in chapter 5, Engineering Analysis, to define the relationship between SEER and 

HSPF for both split system and single package heat pumps. The SEER and HSPF pairings for 

split system heat pumps are graphically presented in Figure 10.2.5. Also provided in the figure 

is the equation representing the linear relationship between SEER and HSPF.

Figure 10.2.5 Split System Heat Pump: HSPF and SEER relationship

HSPF = 0.2362 * SEER + 4.9445

for SEER ≤ 21

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10.0

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

SEER

HSPF

HSPF = 9.9

for SEER > 21
10-17

The SEER and HSPF pairings for single package heat pumps are graphically presented in 

Figure 10.2.6. Also provided in the figure is the equation representing the linear relationship 

between SEER and HSPF. 

Figure 10.2.6 Single Package Heat Pump: HSPF and SEER relationship

For its determination of standards-case efficiencies, DOE assumed a “roll-up” scenario to 

establish both a SEER-based and HSPF-based SWEF for the year that standards are assumed to 

become effective (i.e., 2016). Using the same method as was developed for central air 

conditioners, DOE assumed that product efficiencies in the base case that did not meet the 

standard under consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. In addition, DOE 

assumed that all product efficiencies in the base case that were above the standard under 

consideration would not be affected. 

Table 10.2.8 and Table 10.2.9 present the efficiency distributions and resulting SEERbased and HSPF-based SWEFs for the base case and standards cases for split system and single 

package heat pumps, respectively. Each table clearly shows how each standards case, under a 

“roll-up” scenario, affects the efficiency distribution.

HSPF = 0.3619 * SEER + 3.0119

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

12 13 14 15 16 17

SEER

HSPF
10-18

Table 10.2.8 Split System Heat Pump: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 

CSL SEER HSPF

Market Share

Base 

Case

Standards Case

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Baseline 13.0 8.0 13.0% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

1 13.5 8.1 40.0% 53.0% - - - - - - - - - - - -

2 14.0 8.3 10.0% 10.0% 63.0% - - - - - - - - - - -

3 14.5 8.4 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 76.0% - - - - - - - - - -

4 15.0 8.5 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 87.5% - - - - - - - - -

5 15.5 8.6 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 91.0% - - - - -- - - -

6 16.0 8.7 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 96.0% - - - - - - -

7 16.5 8.8 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 98.0% - - - - - -

8 17.0 9.0 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 99.5% - - - - -

9 18.0 9.2 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 100.0% - - - -

10 19.0 9.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% - - -

11 20.0 9.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% - -

12 21.0 9.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% -

13 22.0 9.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

SWEF (SEER) 14.12 14.18 14.45 14.76 15.14 15.58 16.04 16.52 17.01 18.00 19.00 20.0 21.0 22.0

SWEF (HSPF) 8.27 8.29 8.39 8.45 8.53 8.62 8.71 8.81 9.00 9.20 9.4 9.7 9.9 9.9

Table 10.2.9 Single Package Heat Pump: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016

CSL SEER HSPF

Market Share

Base Case

Standards Case

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Baseline 13.0 7.7 32.1% - - - - - - -

1 13.5 7.9 32.0% 64.1% - - - - - -

2 14.0 8.1 28.9% 28.9% 93.0% - - - - -

3 14.5 8.3 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 98.0% - - - -

4 15.0 8.4 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 100.0% - - -

5 15.5 8.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% - -

6 16.0 8.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% -

7 16.5 9.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

SWEF (SEER) 13.56 13.72 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.40

SWEF (HSPF) 7.92 7.99 8.12 8.30 8.40 8.60 8.80 9.00
10-19

10.2.2.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends

Historical Efficiency Trends

Using the SWEF for the year 2016 as a starting point, DOE developed base-case 

forecasted efficiency trends based on assumptions regarding future efficiency growth. To 

estimate SWEFs over the 30 year forecast spanning 2016–2045, DOE reviewed historical SWEF 

data provided by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) spanning the 

years 1992 to 2009.1 The year 1992 is the year in which the first set of standards for central air 

conditioner and heat pumps became effective. The year 2006 is the year in which an updated set 

of standards became effective. Figure 10.2.7 shows the SWEFs for split system and single 

package central air conditioners. The figure also presents the linear fit to each product class’ 

SWEF data series between the years 1993 and 2002. This time span provides an indication of 

how future shipment-weighted efficiencies may change after new standards become effective 

because the span is during a period where there are no regulatory actions affecting efficiency, 

i.e., just after new standards took effect in 1992 and just after the 2006 standards were issued by 

DOE in the year 2001. The linear fits have high coefficients of determination, i.e., linear fits 

provide a good estimate of the SWEF growth rate. Table 10.2.10 provides a summary of the 

SEER-based SWEF growth rates for each product class. 

Figure 10.2.7 Heat Pump Historical SWEFs based on SEER with Linear Fits

Split HP

SEER = 0.05802 * year - 104.80028

R2 = 0.93874

Package HP

SEER = 0.07624 * year - 141.33065

R2

 = 0.89844

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Year

Shipment-Weighted SEER

Split HP

Package HP

Linear (Split HP)

Linear (Package HP)
10-20

Table 10.2.10 Heat Pump SWEF Growth Rates

SWEF Growth Rate

Product Class SEER increase per year

Split System Heat Pumps 0.0580

Single Package Heat Pumps 0.0898

Base Case Efficiency Trends

Because various market-pull programs such as Energy Star and utility rebate programs 

were in existence from 1992 to 2003, the SWEF growth rate evident in the historical data was 

likely due in part to these market-pull programs. Any market pull programs in effect during 

1992 to 2003 were less effective than the Federal tax credit programs in existence from 2006-

2007 and 2009-2011 as the more recent tax credit programs have resulted in a greater rate of 

adoption of more efficient products. DOE assumed that market pull programs in existence during 

1992-2003 are more reflective of typical market-pull effectiveness, i.e., the recent Federal tax 

credits are seen as extraordinarily aggressive. As a result, DOE applied the SWEF growth rates 

in Table 10.2.10 to the base case SWEFs in 2016 to forecast annual SWEFs for the central air 

conditioner product classes from 2016 to 2045. Application of the SWEF growth rates in this 

manner assumes that future market-pull programs will be as effective at increasing product 

efficiency as the programs in existence from 1992 to 2003.

Standards Case Efficiency Trends

To develop standards case forecasted SWEFs, DOE developed growth trends for each 

candidate standard level that maintained the same per-unit average total installed cost difference 

for the year 2016 between the base case and each standards case over the entire forecast period 

(2016–2045). DOE’s approach for developing standards case SWEFs in this manner assumes 

that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a 

rate that ensures that the average total installed cost difference between the standards case and 

base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. Because the total installed costs versus 

efficiency relationships for many of the standard levels for each product class demonstrate an 

increasing cost rate for more efficient products, the SWEF growth rate for many of the standards 

cases is lower than the SWEF growth rate for the base case. 

For single package heat pumps, DOE observes that the market conditions are somewhat 

distinct from split system air conditioners as 93 percent of the single package market is 

comprised of low efficiency products of 13 to 14 SEER. In addition, DOE observes that higher 

efficiency single-package systems are more expensive relative to the lower efficiency models 

compared to the general cost structure for split system units. This indicates that efficiency trends 

for single-package systems are likely to be smaller than those for split systems. Nonetheless, 

DOE modeled the efficiency trends for single-package units the same as it modeled the trends for 

split systems. While DOE believes that this approach is conservative, DOE did not have the data 

available to calibrate a more precise forecast of efficiency trends for this product class. An 

overestimate of the efficiency trend will likely lead to an overestimate of equipment costs 

resulting from a standard for these products. As a result, net consumer benefits from a standard 

are likely to be higher than the DOE estimate provided in this TSD. 
10-21

Depicting Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Trends

Figure 10.2.8 and Figure 10.2.9 show the base case historical SWEFs, the base case 

forecasted efficiency trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency trend for split system 

heat pump SEER and HSPF, respectively. The HSPF-based SWEFs were derived from the 

SEER-based SWEFs using the SEER and HSPF relationship for split systems presented in 

section 10.2.1.1. Note that for some standards cases, the efficiency trend does not increase past 

the Max Tech level. The Max Tech level for split systems is 22 SEER and 9.9 HSPF. 

Figure 10.2.8 Split System Heat Pump: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

SWEF (SEER)

Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 

CSL 4: 15 SEER 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER 

CSL 8: 17 SEER 

CSL 9: 18 SEER 

CSL 10: 19 SEER 

CSL 11: 20 SEER

CSL 12: 21 SEER

CSL 13: 22 SEER 
10-22

Figure 10.2.9 Split System Heat Pump: HSPF-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

Figure 10.2.10 and Figure 10.2.11 show the base case historical SWEFs, the base case 

forecasted efficiency trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency trend for single 

package heat pump SEER and HSPF, respectively. The HSPF-based SWEFs were derived from 

the SEER-based SWEFs using the SEER and HSPF relationship for single package units 

presented in section 10.2.2.1. Note that for some standards cases, the efficiency trend does not 

increase past the Max Tech level. The Max Tech level for single package units is 16.5 SEER 

and 9.0 HSPF. 

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

SWEF (HSPF)

Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 

CSL 4: 15 SEER 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER 

CSL 8: 17 SEER 

CSL 9: 18 SEER 

CSL 10: 19 SEER 

CSL 11: 20 SEER

CSL 12: 21 SEER

CSL 13: 22 SEER 
10-23

Figure 10.2.10 Single Package Heat Pump: SEER-based Historical SWEFs and 

Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

Figure 10.2.11 Single Package Heat Pump: HSPF-based Historical SWEFs and 

Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

SWEF (SEER)

Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 

CSL 4: 15 SEER 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER 

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

SWEF (HSPF)

Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER 

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER 

CSL 4: 15 SEER 

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER 

CSL 6: 16 SEER 

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER 
10-24

10.2.2.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions

Once DOE developed base case and standards case efficiency trends, it derived a 

distribution of product efficiencies from the forecasted SWEFs for each year of the analysis 

period (2016–2045) by developing appropriate market shares for the various standard levels. 

As specified in Table 10.2.11 and Table 10.2.12, DOE developed the product efficiency 

distributions for the year the standard is assumed to become effective (2016) using a “roll-up” 

scenario. For subsequent years (2017–2045), DOE assigned the market shares to the standard 

levels so that the resulting calculated SWEF remained equal to the forecasted SWEF. This 

assignment was conducted by pulling market shares from lower efficiency levels to higher 

efficiency levels until the calculated SWEF equaled the forecasted value. 

Table 10.2.11 and Table 10.2.12 provide examples of forecasted efficiency 

distributions—the specific cases of the forecasted SEER-based efficiency distributions for the 

base case (without standards) for split system and single package heat pumps, respectively. The 

tables also provide the resulting SEER-based SWEF for each year during the forecast period. 

The NIA spreadsheet (detailed in Appendix 10-A) provides the forecasted efficiency 

distributions for all the standards cases for both split system and single package heat pumps.
10-25

Table 10.2.11 Split System Heat Pumps: SEER-based Base Case Efficiency 

Distributions and SWEFs

Year

Market Shares by SEER Level

13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 18 19 20 21 22 SWEF

2016 13.0% 40.0% 10.0% 13.0% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.12

2017 0.0% 52.1% 10.9% 13.0% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.19

2018 0.0% 38.4% 24.6% 13.0% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.26

2019 0.0% 24.6% 38.4% 13.0% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.32

2020 0.0% 10.7% 52.3% 13.0% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.39

2021 0.0% 0.0% 59.8% 16.2% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.46

2022 0.0% 0.0% 45.8% 30.2% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.53

2023 0.0% 0.0% 31.7% 44.3% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.60

2024 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 58.4% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2025 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 72.6% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.75

2026 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.1% 22.4% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.82

2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.8% 36.7% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.89

2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36.4% 51.1% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.96

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.9% 65.6% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.03

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 80.2% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.11

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 80.2% 10.8% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.18

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.5% 25.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.25

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.8% 40.2% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.33

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35.9% 55.1% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.40

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 70.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.47

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 85.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.55

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 82.0% 14.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.63

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.9% 29.1% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.70

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51.7% 44.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.78

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36.4% 59.6% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.85

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 74.9% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.93

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 90.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.01

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 86.2% 11.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.08

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70.6% 27.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.16

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 54.9% 43.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.24
10-26

Table 10.2.12 Single Package Heat Pumps: SEER-based Base Case Efficiency 

Distributions and SWEFs

Year Market Share by SEER Level

13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.4 SWEF

2016 32.1% 32.0% 28.9% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.56

2017 15.0% 49.1% 28.9% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.65

2018 0.0% 62.0% 31.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.74

2019 0.0% 44.7% 48.3% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.82

2020 0.0% 27.4% 65.6% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.91

2021 0.0% 9.9% 83.1% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.00

2022 0.0% 0.0% 85.3% 12.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.08

2023 0.0% 0.0% 67.6% 30.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.17

2024 0.0% 0.0% 49.8% 48.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.26

2025 0.0% 0.0% 31.9% 66.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.35

2026 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 84.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.44

2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 93.7% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.53

2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75.4% 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.62

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 57.0% 43.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.71

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 38.5% 61.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.81

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 80.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.90

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 98.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.99

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 82.4% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.09

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 63.4% 36.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.18

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44.3% 55.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.28

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.1% 74.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.37

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 94.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.47

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 86.3% 13.7% 0.0% 15.57

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.8% 33.2% 0.0% 15.67

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 47.1% 52.9% 0.0% 15.76

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27.3% 72.7% 0.0% 15.86

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 92.7% 0.0% 15.96

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87.3% 12.7% 16.06

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 67.1% 32.9% 16.16

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46.8% 53.2% 16.27

10.2.3 Furnaces

10.2.3.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies

For the three product classes of furnace—non-weatherized gas, mobile home gas, and 

oil—DOE developed product efficiencies in the base case by assigning equipment to specific 

efficiency levels for the year 2016. In other words, DOE determined the distribution of product 
10-27

efficiencies currently in the marketplace to develop a SEER-based SWEF for the year 2016. 

DOE derived its base case efficiency distributions for furnaces on data provided by AHRI 

detailing the market shares of non-condensing (80 percent AFUE and less) and condensing (90 

percent AFUE and greater) equipment in combination with the range of product offerings in 

AHRI’s listing of certified furnace equipment. For more details on the derivation of the split 

system and single package base case efficiencies, refer to chapter 8, LCC and PBP Analysis. 

 

For its determination of standards-case efficiencies, DOE assumed a “roll-up” scenario to 

establish the SWEF for the year that standards are assumed to become effective (i.e., 2016). 

DOE assumed that product efficiencies in the base case that did not meet the standard under 

consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. Also, DOE assumed that all 

product efficiencies in the base case that were above the standard under consideration would not 

be affected. 

Table 10.2.13 through Table 10.2.15 present the efficiency distributions and resulting 

SWEF for the base case and standards cases for non-weatherized gas furnaces, mobile home 

furnaces, and oil furnaces in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). Each 

table clearly shows how each standards case, under a “roll-up” scenario, affects the efficiency 

distribution. For non-weatherized gas furnaces, AHRI data were provided to allow DOE to 

develop national efficiency distributions as well as distributions for the northern and southern 

regions.

Table 10.2.13 Non-weatherized Gas Furnaces: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 

CSL AFUE

Market Share

National North South

Base 

Case

Standards Case Base 

Case

Standards Case Base 

Case

Standards Case

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Base 80% 48.1% - - - - 29.1% - - - - 75.9% - - - -

1 90% 10.0% 58.1% - - - 13.7% 42.8% - - - 4.4% 80.4% - - -

2 92% 24.6% 24.6% 82.7% - - 33.6% 33.6% 76.4% - - 11.5% 11.5% 91.8% - -

3 95% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9% 99.6% - 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 99.4% - 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 99.7% -

4 98% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 100.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 100.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 100.0%

SWEF 86.6% 91.4% 92.5% 95.0% 98.0% 89.0% 91.9% 92.7% 95.0% 98.0% 83.1% 90.6% 92.3% 95.0% 98.0%
10-28

Table 10.2.14 Mobile Home Furnaces: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016

CSL AFUE

Market Share

Base Case

Standards Case

1 2 3

Base 80% 90.5% - - -

1 90% 2.0% 92.5% - -

2 92% 4.0% 4.0% 96.5% -

3 96% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 100.0%

SWEF 81.2% 90.3% 92.1% 96.0%

Table 10.2.15 Oil Furnaces: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases 

in 2016

CSL AFUE

Market Share

Base Case

Standards Case

1 2 3 4

Base 82% 41.7% - - - -

1 83% 19.7% 61.4% - - -

2 84% 5.6% 5.6% 67.0% - -

3 85% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 99.1% -

4 97% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 100.0%

SWEF 83.4% 83.8% 84.4% 85.1% 97.0%

10.2.3.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends

Historical Efficiency Trends

Using the SWEF for the year 2016 as a starting point, DOE developed base-case 

forecasted efficiency trends based on assumptions regarding future efficiency growth. To 

estimate SWEFs over the 30 year forecast spanning 2016–2045, DOE reviewed historical data 

detailing the market shares of non-condensing (80 percent AFUE and less) and condensing (90 

percent AFUE and greater) equipment provided by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and 

Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) spanning the years 1983 to 2009.1

 Figure 10.2.12 shows the 

fraction of condensing equipment for non-weatherized gas furnaces at the national level and the 

north and south regions. The figure also presents the linear fit to the data series for each region 

between the years 1994 and 2005. DOE used only the data from 1994 to 2005 to factor out the 

lingering effects of new furnace standards that required compliance in 1992 as well as the effects 

of market-pull programs, including Federal tax credits, to promote the purchase of highefficiency condensing furnaces. The linear fits have relatively high coefficients of determination, 

i.e., linear fits provide a good estimate of the condensing equipment growth rate. Table 10.2.16

provides a summary of the condensing equipment growth rates for each region. 
10-29

Figure 10.2.12 Non-weatherized Gas Furnace Historical Fractions of Condensing 

Equipment by Region with Linear Fits

Table 10.2.16 Non-weatherized Gas Furnace Growth Rates for Condensing Equipment 

Fractions

Condensing Unit Fraction Growth Rate

Region Fraction increase per year

National 0.0098

North 0.0160

South 0.0063

Base Case Efficiency Trend

Because various market-pull programs such as Energy Star and utility rebate programs 

were in existence from 1994 to 2005, the condensing equipment-based growth rate evident in the 

historical data was likely due in part to these market-pull programs. Any market pull programs in 

effect during 1994 to 2005 were less effective than the Federal tax credit programs in existence 

from 2006-2007 and 2009-2011 as the more recent tax credit programs have resulted in a greater

rate of adoption of more efficient products. DOE assumed that market pull programs in existence 

during 1994-2005 are more reflective of typical market-pull effectiveness, i.e., the recent Federal 

tax credits are seen as extraordinarily aggressive. As a result, DOE used the condensing 

equipment-based growth rates in Table 10.2.10 to estimate AFUE-based SWEFs for nonNational

Frac = 0.0098 * year - 19.42

R2

 = 0.7634

South

Frac = 0.0063 * year - 12.541

R2

 = 0.6394

North

Frac = 0.016 * year - 31.689

R2

 = 0.8416

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

Fraction Condensing Furnace

National

North

South

Linear (National)

Linear (South)

Linear (North)
10-30

weatherized gas furnaces from 2016 to 2045. Application of the SWEF growth rates in this 

manner assumes that future market-pull programs will be as effective at increasing product 

efficiency as the programs in existence from 1995 to 2005.

Because DOE did not receive historical efficiency data for mobile home gas and oil 

furnaces, it used the same condensing equipment-based growth rate for non-weatherized gas 

furnaces to forecast mobile home gas and oil furnace efficiencies.

Standards Case Efficiency Trends

To forecast standards case SWEFs after the year of compliance, rather than use the same 

efficiency growth rate as the base case, DOE developed growth trends for each candidate

standard level that reflect the fact that as efficiency increases, it becomes more expensive (in 

terms of equipment cost) to maintain a constant growth rate. Therefore, DOE assumed that the 

rate of adoption of more efficient products under a standards case occurs at a rate which ensures 

that the average total installed cost difference between the standards case and base case over the 

entire forecast period is constant. As a result, the average SWEF growth rate for each standards 

case is lower than the average SWEF growth rate for the base case. 

Depicting Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Trends

Figure 10.2.13 through Figure 10.2.15 show the AFUE-based base case historical 

SWEFs, the base case forecasted efficiency trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency 

trend for non-weatherized gas, mobile home gas, and oil furnaces, respectively.
10-31

Figure 10.2.13 Non-weatherized Gas Furnaces: AFUE-based Historical SWEFs and 

Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases 

Figure 10.2.14 Mobile Home Furnaces: AFUE-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted 

Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055

Year

SWEF (AFUE)

N Base Case

N CSL 1: 90% AFUE

N CSL 2: 92% AFUE

N CSL 3: 95% AFUE

N CSL 4: 98% AFUE

S Base Case

S CSL 1: 90% AFUE

S CSL 2: 92% AFUE

S CSL 3: 95% AFUE

S CSL 4: 98% AFUE

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

SWEF (AFUE)

Base Case

CSL 1: 90% AFUE

CSL 2: 92% AFUE

CSL 3: 96% AFUE
10-32

Figure 10.2.15 Oil Furnaces: AFUE-based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency 

Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

10.2.3.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions

Once DOE developed base case and standards case efficiency trends, it derived a 

distribution of product efficiencies from the forecasted SWEFs for each year of the analysis 

period (2016–2045) by developing appropriate market shares for the various standard levels. 

DOE developed the product efficiency distributions for the year the standard is assumed 

to become effective (2016) using a “roll-up” scenario. For subsequent years (2017–2045), DOE 

assigned the market shares to the standard levels so that the resulting calculated SWEF remained 

equal to the forecasted SWEF. This assignment was conducted by pulling market shares from 

lower efficiency levels to higher efficiency levels until the calculated SWEF equaled the 

forecasted value. 

Table 10.2.17 through Table 10.2.19 provide examples of forecasted efficiency 

distributions—the specific cases of the forecasted AFUE-based efficiency distributions for the 

base case (without standards) for non-weatherized gas furnaces, mobile home furnaces, and oil 

furnaces, respectively. The tables also provide the resulting AFUE-based SWEF for each year 

during the forecast period. The NIA spreadsheet (detailed in Appendix 10-A) provides the 

forecasted efficiency distributions for all the standards cases.

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

SWEF (AFUE)

Base Case

CSL 1: 83% AFUE

CSL 2: 84% AFUE

CSL 3: 85% AFUE

CSL 4: 97% AFUE
10-33

Table 10.2.17 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: AFUE-based Base Case Efficiency 

Distributions and SWEFs

Year

National North South

Market Share by AFUE

SWEF

Market Share by AFUE

SWEF

Market Share by AFUE

80 90 92 95 98 80 90 92 95 98 80 90 92 95 98 SWEF

2016 48.1% 10.0% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 86.56 29.1% 13.7% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 88.96 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.05

2017 47.0% 11.1% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 86.67 27.1% 15.7% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 89.16 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.08

2018 45.7% 12.3% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 86.80 25.0% 17.8% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 89.37 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.12

2019 44.5% 13.5% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 86.92 23.0% 19.8% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 89.57 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.15

2020 43.3% 14.8% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.04 20.9% 21.9% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 89.78 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.18

2021 42.1% 16.0% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.16 18.9% 23.9% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 89.98 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.22

2022 40.9% 17.2% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.28 16.8% 26.0% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 90.19 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.25

2023 39.7% 18.4% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.41 14.8% 28.0% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 90.39 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.28

2024 38.4% 19.6% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.53 12.7% 30.1% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 90.60 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.32

2025 37.2% 20.8% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.65 10.7% 32.1% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 90.80 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.35

2026 36.0% 22.1% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.77 8.6% 34.2% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 91.01 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.38

2027 34.8% 23.3% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.89 6.6% 36.2% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 91.21 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.42

2028 33.6% 24.5% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.02 4.5% 38.3% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 91.42 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.45

2029 32.3% 25.7% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.14 2.5% 40.3% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 91.62 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.48

2030 31.1% 26.9% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.26 0.4% 42.4% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 91.83 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.52

2031 29.9% 28.2% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.38 0.0% 34.6% 41.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.03 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.55

2032 28.7% 29.4% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.50 0.0% 24.4% 52.0% 23.0% 0.6% 92.24 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.58

2033 27.5% 30.6% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.62 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.62

2034 26.2% 31.8% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.75 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.65

2035 25.0% 33.0% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.87 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.68

2036 23.8% 34.2% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.99 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.72

2037 22.6% 35.5% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.11 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.75

2038 21.4% 36.7% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.23 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.78

2039 20.2% 37.9% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.36 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.8% 4.5% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.82

2040 18.9% 39.1% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.48 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.5% 4.9% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.85

2041 17.7% 40.3% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.60 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.2% 5.2% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.88

2042 16.5% 41.6% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.72 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 74.8% 5.5% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.92

2043 15.3% 42.8% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.84 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 74.5% 5.9% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.95

2044 14.1% 44.0% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.96 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 74.2% 6.2% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.98

2045 12.8% 45.2% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 90.09 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 73.8% 6.5% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 84.02
10-34

Table 10.2.18 Mobile Home Furnaces: AFUE-based Base Case Efficiency Distributions 

and SWEFs

Year

Market Share by AFUE Level

80 90 92 96 SWEF

2016 90.5% 2.0% 4.0% 3.5% 81.24

2017 90.0% 2.5% 4.0% 3.5% 81.29

2018 89.8% 2.7% 4.0% 3.5% 81.31

2019 89.6% 2.9% 4.0% 3.5% 81.33

2020 89.4% 3.1% 4.0% 3.5% 81.35

2021 89.3% 3.2% 4.0% 3.5% 81.36

2022 89.1% 3.4% 4.0% 3.5% 81.38

2023 88.9% 3.6% 4.0% 3.5% 81.40

2024 88.7% 3.8% 4.0% 3.5% 81.42

2025 88.6% 3.9% 4.0% 3.5% 81.43

2026 88.4% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 81.45

2027 88.2% 4.3% 4.0% 3.5% 81.47

2028 88.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 81.49

2029 87.9% 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% 81.50

2030 87.7% 4.8% 4.0% 3.5% 81.52

2031 87.5% 5.0% 4.0% 3.5% 81.54

2032 87.3% 5.1% 4.0% 3.5% 81.56

2033 87.2% 5.3% 4.0% 3.5% 81.57

2034 87.0% 5.5% 4.0% 3.5% 81.59

2035 86.8% 5.7% 4.0% 3.5% 81.61

2036 86.6% 5.8% 4.0% 3.5% 81.63

2037 86.5% 6.0% 4.0% 3.5% 81.64

2038 86.3% 6.2% 4.0% 3.5% 81.66

2039 86.1% 6.4% 4.0% 3.5% 81.68

2040 85.9% 6.5% 4.0% 3.5% 81.70

2041 85.8% 6.7% 4.0% 3.5% 81.71

2042 85.6% 6.9% 4.0% 3.5% 81.73

2043 85.4% 7.1% 4.0% 3.5% 81.75

2044 85.2% 7.2% 4.0% 3.5% 81.77

2045 85.1% 7.4% 4.0% 3.5% 81.78
10-35

Table 10.2.19 Oil Furnaces: AFUE-based Base Case Efficiency Distributions and 

SWEFs

Year

Market Share by AFUE Level

82 83 84 85 97 SWEF

2016 41.7% 19.7% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.41

2017 40.7% 20.7% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.42

2018 39.6% 21.7% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.43

2019 38.6% 22.8% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.44

2020 37.6% 23.8% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.45

2021 36.5% 24.9% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.46

2022 35.5% 25.9% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.47

2023 34.4% 26.9% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.48

2024 33.4% 28.0% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.49

2025 32.4% 29.0% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.50

2026 31.3% 30.1% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.51

2027 30.3% 31.1% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.53

2028 29.2% 32.1% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.54

2029 28.2% 33.2% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.55

2030 27.2% 34.2% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.56

2031 26.1% 35.3% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.57

2032 25.1% 36.3% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.58

2033 24.0% 37.3% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.59

2034 23.0% 38.4% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.60

2035 22.0% 39.4% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.61

2036 20.9% 40.5% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.62

2037 19.9% 41.5% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.63

2038 18.9% 42.5% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.64

2039 17.8% 43.6% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.65

2040 16.8% 44.6% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.66

2041 15.7% 45.7% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.67

2042 14.7% 46.7% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.68

2043 13.7% 47.7% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.69

2044 12.6% 48.8% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.70

2045 11.6% 49.8% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.71
10-36

10.2.4 Standby and Off-Mode

10.2.4.1 Base Case and Standards Case Efficiencies

For central air conditioner, heat pump, and furnace standby and off-mode power 

consumption, DOE developed product efficiencies in the base case by assigning equipment to 

specific efficiency levels for the year 2016. In other words, DOE determined the distribution of

product efficiencies currently in the marketplace to develop a standby and off-mode-based 

SWEF for the year 2016. For more details on the derivation of the split system and single 

package base case efficiencies, refer to chapter 8, LCC and PBP Analysis. 

 

For its determination of standards-case SWEFs, DOE assumed a “roll-up” scenario to 

establish the SWEF for the year that standards are assumed to become effective (i.e., 2016). 

DOE assumed that product efficiencies in the base case that did not meet the standard under 

consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. In addition, DOE assumed that all 

product efficiencies in the base case that were above the standard under consideration would not 

be affected. 

Table 10.2.20 through Table 10.2.25 present the standby and off-mode-based efficiency 

distributions and resulting SWEF for the base case and standards cases split system central air 

conditioners, single package central air conditioners, split system and single package heat 

pumps, now-weatherized gas furnaces, oil furnaces, and mobile home furnaces in the year 2016 

(the assumed effective date of new standards). Each table clearly shows how each standards 

case, under a “roll-up” scenario, affects the efficiency distribution.
10-37

Table 10.2.20 Off Mode Base-Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 for Split System 

Central Air Conditioners

CSL CAC Type

Standby/OffMode

Market Share*

Watts

Base Case Standards Case

by CSL

by CSL & 

CAC Type 1 2 3

Base

Blower Coil 48

60%

6% - - -

Coil Only 40 54% - - -

1

Blower Coil 36

30%

1% 7% - -

Coil Only 28 9% 63% - -

2

Blower Coil 30

10%

3% 3% 10% -

Coil Only 22 27% 27% 90% 90%

3

Blower Coil** 29

0%

0% 0% 0% 10%

Coil Only*** NA*** 0% 0% 0% 0%

SWEF 34.2 27.0 22.8 22.7

* Refers to share of air conditioners with crankcase heaters.

** Impacts only that fraction of the blower coil market with ECMs; market with PSC motors meeting efficiency 

level 2 already meet efficiency level 3 off mode power requirements.

*** Coil only equipment are not impacted by efficiency level 3 off mode power requirements.

Table 10.2.21 Off Mode Base-Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 for Single Package 

Central Air Conditioners

CSL

Standby/OffMode

Market Share*

Watts Base Case

Standards Case

1 2 3

Base 48 60% - - -

1 36 30% 90% - -

2 30 10% 10% 100% -

3** 29 0% 0% 0% 100%

SWEF 42.6 35.4 30.0 29.0

* Refers to fraction of air conditioners with crankcase heaters.

** Impacts only that fraction of the market with ECMs; market with PSC motors meeting efficiency level 2 already 

meet efficiency level 3 off mode power requirements.
10-38

Table 10.2.22 Off Mode Base-Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 for Split System and 

Single Package Heat Pumps

CSL

Standby/Off-Mode

Market Share*

Watts Base Case

Standards Case

1 2

Base 50 50% - -

1 33 50% 100% -

2** 32 0% 0% 100%

SWEF 41.5 33.0 32.0

* Refers to fraction of heat pumps with crankcase heaters.

** Impacts only that fraction of the market with ECMs; market with PSC motors meeting efficiency level 1 already 

meet efficiency level 2 off mode power requirements. 

Table 10.2.23 Standby Mode and Off Mode Base-Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 

for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces

CSL

Standby/Off-Mode

Market Share

Watts Base Case

Standards Case

1 2

Base 11.0 100% - -

1 9.8 0% 100% -

2 9.0 0% 0% 100%

SWEF 11.0 9.8 9.0

Table 10.2.24 Standby Mode and Off Mode Base-Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 

for Oil-Fired Furnaces

CSL

Standby/Off-Mode

Market Share

Watts Base Case

Standards Case

1 2

Base 12.0 100% - -

1 10.8 0% 100% -

2 10.0 0% 0% 100%

SWEF 12.0 10.8 10.0
10-39

Table 10.2.25 Standby Mode and Off Mode Base-Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 

for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces

CSL

Standby/Off-Mode

Market Share

Watts Base Case

Standards Case

1 2

Base 11.0 100% - -

1 9.8 0% 100% -

2 9.0 0% 0% 100%

SWEF 11.0 9.8 9.0

10.2.4.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends

Due to the lack of historical information on standby and off mode power consumption in 

central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnace equipment, DOE estimated that distributions of 

standby and off mode power consumption would remain the same from 2016 until 2045. 

10.3 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

This section describes DOE’s calculation of national energy savings (NES) and regional 

energy savings (RES) for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces under various CSLs 

or standards cases. Similar methods are used to calculate energy savings for the Nation and for 

each of the climate regions that are analyzed separately. 

10.3.1 Definition 

As the following equations illustrate, DOE calculates annual NES and RES as the 

difference between two projections: a base case (without new standards) and a standards case 

(with new standards). Positive values of NES or RES indicate energy savings (i.e., annual energy 

consumption (AEC) in the standards case is less than AEC in the base case). The calculation of 

annual nation energy savings (NESy) and annual regional energy savings (RESy) are represented 

by the following expressions.

NES y = AECnatl−base AECnatl−std

_

REGy = AECreg−base AECreg−std

_

Cumulative energy savings are the sum over the forecast period, which extends from a 

standard’s assumed effective date (2016), to 30 years after the effective date (2045), of the

annual NES and annual RES for each region. This calculation is represented by the following 

equations for:
10-40

NEScum = ∑NES y

REScum = ∑RESy

DOE calculated AEC by multiplying the number or stock of a given product (by vintage) 

by its unit energy consumption (also by vintage). The calculation of the national and each 

regional AEC is represented by the following equation:

AEC = ∑STOCKV ×UECV

Where:

AEC = annual energy consumption each year for the Nation or region in 

quadrillion British thermal units (Btus)—or quads—summed over 

vintages of the product stock, STOCKV;

NESy = national annual energy savings (quads);

RESy = regional annual energy savings (quads);

NEScum = national cumulative energy savings (quads);

REScum = regional cumulative energy savings (quads);

STOCKV = stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V that survive in the 

year for which DOE calculated annual energy consumption 

(vintages range from approximately two to approximately 50

years, depending on the retirement function of the product);

UECV = annual energy consumption per product in kilowatt-hours (kWh);

electricity consumption is converted from site energy to source 

energy (quads) by applying a time-dependent conversion factor;

natl = designates the quantity corresponds to the Nation;

reg = designates the quantity corresponds to a region;

base = designates the quantity corresponds to the base case;

std = designates the quantity corresponds to the standards case;

y = year in the forecast (2016–2045); and

cum = cumulative over the forecast period (2016–2045); and

V = year in which the product was purchased as a new unit.

The stock of equipment depends on annual shipments and the lifetime of the given 

product. As described in chapter 9, DOE projected shipments for the base case and standards

cases. 

10.3.2 Inputs to Calculation

The inputs for calculating national and regional energy savings are:

• Average annual energy consumption per unit (UEC),

• shipments,
10-41

• equipment stock (STOCKV),

• annual energy consumption for the Nation or a give region (AEC), and

• site-to-source conversion factor (src_conv).

10.3.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit - Efficiency

For each product class, DOE presented the per-unit annual energy consumption as a 

function of product efficiency in chapter 7, Energy Use Determination. Because the per-unit

annual energy consumption is directly dependent on efficiency, DOE used the shipmentsweighted energy efficiency (SWEF) of the base and standards cases presented in section 10.2, 

along with the annual energy use data presented in chapters 7 and 8, to estimate the shipmentweighted average annual per-unit energy consumption (UEC) under the base and standards 

cases. The following sections describe DOE’s calculation of the shipment-weighted average 

annual UEC for each product class of central air conditioner, heat pumps, and furnaces.

Split System Central Air Conditioners

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of split system central air conditioners on 

data presented in chapter 7. Table 10.3.1 presents the base case and standards case shipmentweighted annual UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for 

replacement and new owner coil-only installations for the Nation and the three specific regions 

(hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country. Table 10.3.2 presents the same UEC data but for coilonly units installed in new construction. As noted earlier in section 10.2.1, DOE estimated that 

split system coil-only new construction units would be installed in the same manner as split 

system blower coil only units. As result, coil-only new construction units are characterized in the 

exact same manner as blower coil. In both tables, UECs are presented for both residential and 

commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted 

annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, 

Figure 10.3.1 demonstrates how the UECs for replacement and new owner coil-only installations 

for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. Because SWEFs in the base 

case and standards case were forecasted to increase over the forecast period, the corresponding 

UEC decreases over time. As noted earlier in section 10.2.1.2, DOE’s approach for forecasting 

standards case SWEFs assumes that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the 

standards case can occur only at a rate which ensures that the shipment-weighted average total 

installed cost difference between the standards case and base case over the entire forecast period 

be held constant. Because the total installed cost versus efficiency relationship for split system 

coil-only central air conditioners demonstrates an increasing cost rate for more efficient 

products, the SWEF growth rate for the standards case (CSL 2) is lower than the SWEF growth 

rate for the base case. This is evident in Figure 10.3.1 as the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs 

between CSL 2 and the base case decreases over time. 
10-42

Table 10.3.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and 

New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

SWEF (SEER) 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00

Annual Energy 

Use (kWh/yr)

Residential

Nation 2386 2363 2300 2238 2174 2111 2050 2001 1955 1922

Hot-Humid 3270 3239 3152 3067 2980 2893 2809 2742 2678 2629

Hot-Dry 2069 2049 1994 1940 1885 1830 1777 1734 1694 1667

Rest-ofCountry 1189 1178 1146 1115 1083 1052 1021 999 978 964

Commercial

Nation 2606 2596 2564 2498 2427 2350 2272 2251 2230 2214

Hot-Humid 2837 2823 2783 2717 2646 2569 2490 2465 2441 2422

Hot-Dry 2541 2530 2497 2434 2366 2292 2217 2195 2171 2154

Rest-ofCountry 2289 2282 2263 2197 2125 2048 1969 1954 1940 1929

Table 10.3.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only Units, New Construction 

Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy 

Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.50

Annual 

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr)

Residential

Nation 2384 2361 2297 2235 2172 2108 2047 1986 1927 1820 1745 1677 1616 1561 1540 1513

HotHumid 3270 3238 3151 3066 2979 2892 2808 2724 2644 2497 2392 2298 2213 2136 2106 2066

HotDry 2062 2043 1988 1934 1879 1824 1771 1718 1668 1575 1509 1449 1395 1346 1330 1308

Rest-ofCountry 1185 1173 1142 1111 1079 1048 1018 987 958 905 870 839 810 785 777 766

Commercial

Nation 2610 2599 2567 2502 2430 2353 2275 2247 2218 2161 2119 2077 2036 1994 1978 1955

HotHumid 2837 2823 2783 2717 2646 2569 2491 2457 2423 2354 2304 2253 2203 2152 2135 2108

HotDry 2540 2529 2496 2434 2365 2292 2217 2186 2156 2094 2049 2005 1960 1915 1896 1867

Rest-ofCountry 2298 2292 2273 2206 2134 2056 1977 1957 1938 1899 1871 1843 1814 1786 1775 1758
10-43

Figure 10.3.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and 

New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045

Forecast Period

Table 10.3.3 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual UECs

in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for replacement and new owner

blower coil installations for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and 

rest-of-country). Table 10.3.4 presents the same UEC data but for blower coil units installed as 

new construction. In both tables, UECs are presented for both residential and commercial 

installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual UEC is 

also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, 

Figure 10.3.2 demonstrates how the UECs for new construction blower coil installations for the 

base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same reasons given above 

for coil-only units, the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs between CSL 2 and the base case 

decreases over time. 

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Annual Cooling 

Energy Use (kWh/yr)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-44

Table 10.3.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: Replacement 

and New Owner Markets, Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 14.92 15.01 15.28 15.57 15.89 16.23 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 23.00 24.50

Annual 

Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)

Residential

Nation 2250 2233 2186 2139 2091 2043 1997 1951 1907 1815 1746 1682 1622 1567 1547 1519

HotHumid 3077 3053 2988 2924 2859 2793 2731 2667 2607 2482 2386 2296 2213 2137 2107 2067

Hot-Dry 1961 1946 1905 1864 1823 1781 1741 1700 1662 1582 1521 1465 1413 1364 1348 1327

Rest-ofCountry 1129 1120 1097 1073 1049 1025 1002 979 957 911 879 849 821 796 787 777

Commercial

Nation 2483 2475 2451 2402 2349 2291 2233 2212 2191 2143 2104 2065 2025 1984 1967 1943

HotHumid 2714 2704 2675 2625 2571 2513 2453 2428 2403 2346 2303 2258 2213 2167 2146 2115

Hot-Dry 2429 2421 2396 2349 2297 2242 2186 2163 2139 2087 2041 1993 1945 1895 1881 1860

Rest-ofCountry 2160 2155 2141 2093 2039 1982 1924 1910 1895 1862 1833 1804 1773 1742 1732 1716

Table 10.3.4 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: New 

Construction, Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy 

Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 14.92 15.01 15.28 15.57 15.89 16.23 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 23.00 24.50

Annual 

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr)

Residential

Nation 2242 2224 2177 2130 2083 2035 1989 1943 1899 1808 1739 1675 1616 1561 1540 1513

HotHumid 3075 3051 2986 2922 2857 2791 2729 2665 2605 2480 2384 2295 2212 2136 2106 2066

HotDry 1939 1924 1884 1843 1802 1761 1721 1681 1643 1564 1504 1447 1395 1346 1330 1308

Rest-ofCountry 1115 1106 1082 1059 1036 1012 989 966 944 899 867 838 810 785 777 766

Commercial

Nation 2496 2488 2464 2415 2361 2304 2245 2224 2202 2154 2116 2076 2035 1994 1978 1955

HotHumid 2715 2704 2674 2625 2571 2514 2455 2429 2404 2346 2299 2251 2202 2152 2135 2108

HotDry 2427 2419 2394 2347 2296 2241 2185 2162 2139 2086 2045 2003 1959 1915 1896 1867

Rest-ofCountry 2198 2193 2178 2129 2074 2016 1956 1942 1927 1894 1868 1841 1814 1786 1775 1758
10-45

Figure 10.3.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy 

Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045 Forecast 

Period

Central Air Conditioners—Single Package System

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of single package central air conditioners 

on data presented in chapter 7. Table 10.3.5 presents the base case and standards case shipmentweighted annual UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). Unlike 

split systems, the UECs for single package systems do not vary based on the installation (i.e., 

new construction, replacement, or new owner). In the table below, UECs are presented for both 

residential and commercial installations. Also, the SWEF corresponding to the shipmentweighted annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, 

Figure 10.3.3 demonstrates how the UECs for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) 

change over time. For the same reasons given above for coil-only and blower coil split system 

central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs between CSL 2 and the base 

case decreases over time. 

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Annual Cooling 

Energy Use (kWh/yr)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-46

Table 10.3.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.29 13.61 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

Annual

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Resid. Nation 2645 2582 2505 2421 2341 2266 2195 2129

Comm. Nation 2687 2658 2619 2538 2456 2374 2291 2261

Figure 10.3.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over 

the 2016-2045 Forecast Period

Heat Pumps—Split System 

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of split system heat pumps on data 

presented in chapter 7. Table 10.3.6 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted 

annual space-cooling and space-heating UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of 

new standards). The UECs for split system heat pumps do not vary based on the installation 

(i.e., new construction, replacement, or new owner). In the table below, UECs are presented for 

both residential and commercial installations. Also, the SEER-based and HSPF-based SWEFs 

corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual space-cooling and space-heating UECs, 

respectively, are also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, 

Figure 10.3.4 and Figure 10.3.5 demonstrate how the space-cooling and space-heating UECs, 

respectively, for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same 

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Annual Cooling 

Energy Use (kWh/yr)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-47

reasons given above for split system and single package central air conditioners, the gap in the 

shipment-weighted UECs between the CSLs and the base case decrease over time.

Table 10.3.6 Split System Heat Pump: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

SWEF 

(SEER) 14.12 14.18 14.45 14.76 15.14 15.58 16.04 16.52 17.01 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00

SWEF 

(HSPF) 8.27 8.29 8.39 8.45 8.53 8.62 8.71 8.81 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.70 9.90 9.90

Cooling 

Annual

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr)

Residential

Nation 3191 3175 3112 3043 2964 2880 2798 2716 2638 2492 2388 2294 2209 2181

Hot-Humid 3549 3531 3461 3383 3296 3202 3111 3020 2933 2771 2655 2551 2456 2425

Hot-Dry 4014 3994 3915 3827 3729 3623 3519 3416 3318 3134 2984 2848 2726 2689

Rest-ofCountry 1423 1416 1388 1357 1322 1284 1247 1211 1176 1111 1073 1038 1007 995

Commercial

Nation 2620 2615 2594 2544 2483 2414 2342 2310 2277 2211 2162 2112 2063 2045

Hot-Humid 2750 2745 2721 2671 2610 2541 2468 2433 2398 2325 2272 2219 2165 2146

Hot-Dry 2479 2474 2454 2406 2347 2280 2210 2180 2149 2087 2040 1993 1947 1929

Rest-ofCountry 2138 2135 2124 2074 2014 1945 1873 1852 1830 1787 1754 1722 1689 1677

Heating 

Annual 

Energy 

Use 

(kWh/yr)

Residential

Nation 1874 1872 1858 1844 1828 1815 1799 1785 1765 1741 1717 1692 1674 1664

Hot-Humid 1657 1655 1642 1630 1611 1598 1583 1570 1551 1529 1508 1485 1468 1460

Hot-Dry 924 923 915 909 893 885 877 869 858 845 830 815 804 798

Rest-ofCountry 3116 3113 3092 3071 3066 3052 3027 3006 2977 2941 2903 2869 2843 2823

Commercial

Nation 510 510 510 511 514 516 519 515 512 505 500 495 489 488

Hot-Humid 368 368 368 369 370 371 373 370 367 361 356 352 348 346

Hot-Dry 181 181 180 181 181 182 183 181 179 176 173 170 168 167

Rest-ofCountry 1215 1215 1213 1219 1226 1234 1243 1236 1230 1217 1208 1199 1189 1186
10-48

Figure 10.3.4 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 

2016-2045 Forecast Period

Figure 10.3.5 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual 

Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 

2016-2045 Forecast Period

Heat Pumps—Single Package System

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Annual Cooling 

Energy Use (kWh/yr)

Base Case

CSL 2

1760

1780

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Annual Heating 

Energy Use (kWh/yr)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-49

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of split system heat pumps (HPs) on data 

presented in chapter 7. Table 10.3.7 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted 

annual space-cooling and space-heating UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of 

new standards). The UECs for split system heat pumps do not vary based on the installation 

(i.e., new construction, replacement, or new owner). In the table below, UECs are presented for 

both residential and commercial installations. Also, the SEER-based and HSPF-based SWEFs 

corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual space-cooling and space-heating UECs, 

respectively, are also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, 

Figure 10.3.6 and Figure 10.3.7 demonstrate how the space-cooling and space-heating UECs, 

respectively, for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same 

reasons given above for split system heat pumps, the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs 

between the CSL 2 and the base case decrease over time. 

Table 10.3.7 Single Package Heat Pump: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.56 13.72 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

SWEF (HSPF) 8.15 8.18 8.31 8.40 8.50 8.60 8.70 8.80

Cooling Annual

Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Resid. Nation 3758 3711 3625 3508 3394 3284 3181 3085

Comm. Nation 2662 2649 2623 2551 2475 2397 2320 2286

Heating Annual 

Energy Use 

(kWh/yr) 

Resid. Nation 1577 1567 1547 1519 1505 1476 1452 1429

Comm. Nation 359 359 358 360 362 363 365 362
10-50

Figure 10.3.6 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Annual Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over 

the 2016-2045 Forecast Period

Figure 10.3.7 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Annual Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over 

the 2016-2045 Forecast Period

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Annual Cooling 

Energy Use (kWh/yr)

Base Case

CSL 2

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Annual Heating 

Energy Use (kWh/yr)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-51

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of non-weatherized gas furnaces on data 

presented in chapter 7. Table 10.3.8 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted 

annual UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new 

construction non-weatherized gas furnace installations. Table 10.3.9 presents the same UEC data 

but for non-weatherized gas furnaces installed as either replacements or for new owners. In each 

table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, 

Figure 10.3.8 demonstrates how the UECs, for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1) 

change over time. For the same reasons given above for coil-only and blower coil split system 

central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment-weighted UECs between CSL 1 and the base 

case decreases over time. 

Table 10.3.8 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 86.56 91.37 92.53 95.01 98.00

Region

Annual Electricity 

Use (kWh/yr)

Nation 281 269 266 259 342

Hot-Humid* 240 224 221 215 279

Hot-Dry* 145 135 133 129 172

Rest-of-Country 330 321 318 311 411

Annual Gas Use 

(MMBtu/yr)

Nation 33 31 31 30 29

Hot-Humid* 25 23 23 22 21

Hot-Dry* 16 14 14 14 13

Rest-of-Country 40 38 38 37 36

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.
10-52

Table 10.3.9 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for 

Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 86.56 91.37 92.53 95.01 98.00

Region

Annual Electricity 

Use (kWh/yr)

Nation 301 291 287 280 370

Hot-Humid* 266 251 247 241 298

Hot-Dry* 178 167 164 159 202

Rest-of-Country 349 341 338 330 447

Annual Gas Use 

(MMBtu/yr)

Nation 36 34 34 33 31

Hot-Humid* 27 25 25 24 23

Hot-Dry* 18 16 16 16 15

Rest-of-Country 44 42 42 41 39

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.

Figure 10.3.8 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and 

CSL 1 over the 2016-2045 Forecast Period

29.0

29.5

30.0

30.5

31.0

31.5

32.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Annual Heating 

Energy Use (MMBtu/yr)

Base Case

CSL 1
10-53

Mobile Home Furnaces

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of mobile home furnaces on data presented 

in chapter 7. Table 10.3.10 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual 

UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction nonweatherized gas furnace installations. Table 10.3.11 presents the same UEC data but for mobile 

home furnaces installed as either replacements or for new owners. In each table, the SWEF 

corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, 

Figure 10.3.9 demonstrates how the UECs for new construction mobile home furnace 

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1) change over time. For the same 

reasons given above for coil-only and blower coil split system central air conditioners, the gap in 

the shipment-weighted UECs between CSL 1 and the base case decreases over time. 

Table 10.3.10 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3

SWEF (AFUE) 81.24 90.29 92.14 96.00

Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr)

Nation 265 244 239 229

Hot-Humid* 254 234 229 220

Hot-Dry* 152 140 137 132

Rest-of-Country 323 297 291 279

Annual Gas Use 

(MMBtu/yr)

Nation 41 37 36 35

Hot-Humid* 40 36 35 34

Hot-Dry* 23 21 21 20

Rest-of-Country 50 45 44 42

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.
10-54

Table 10.3.11 Mobile Home Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for 

Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3

SWEF (AFUE) 81.24 90.29 92.14 96.00

Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr)

Nation 293 269 264 253

Hot-Humid* 276 254 249 239

Hot-Dry* 167 153 150 144

Rest-of-Country 358 329 322 310

Annual Gas Use 

(MMBtu/yr)

Nation 45 41 40 38

Hot-Humid* 42 38 37 36

Hot-Dry* 26 23 23 22

Rest-of-Country 56 50 49 47

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.

Figure 10.3.9 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 1 over 

the 2016-2045 Forecast Period

37.0

37.5

38.0

38.5

39.0

39.5

40.0

40.5

41.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Annual Heating 

Energy Use (MMBtu/yr)

Base Case

CSL 1
10-55

Oil Furnaces

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of oil furnaces on data presented in chapter 

7. Table 10.3.12 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual UECs in 

the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction oil furnace 

installations. Table 10.3.13 presents the same UEC data but for oil furnaces installed as either 

replacements or for new owners. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipmentweighted annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, 

Figure 10.3.10 demonstrates how the UECs for new construction oil furnace installations for the 

base case and one standards case (CSL 1) change over time. For the same reasons given above 

for coil-only and blower coil split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipmentweighted UECs between CSL 1 and the base case decreases over time. 

Table 10.3.12 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 83.41 83.83 84.44 85.11 97.00

Annual Electricity 

Use (kWh/yr)

Nation 467 464 461 457 403

Hot-Humid* 383 382 379 376 331

Hot-Dry* 384 382 379 376 331

Rest-of-Country 475 473 469 466 410

Annual Oil Use 

(MMBtu/yr)

Nation 65 65 64 64 56

Hot-Humid* 52 52 51 51 45

Hot-Dry* 52 52 51 51 45

Rest-of-Country 66 66 66 65 57

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.
10-56

Table 10.3.13 Oil Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 83.41 83.83 84.44 85.11 97.00

Annual Electricity

Use (kWh/yr)

Nation 519 517 513 509 448

Hot-Humid* 400 398 395 392 345

Hot-Dry* 400 398 395 392 345

Rest-of-Country 534 531 527 523 461

Annual Oil Use 

(MMBtu/yr)

Nation 72 72 72 71 63

Hot-Humid* 56 55 55 54 48

Hot-Dry* 55 55 55 54 48

Rest-of-Country 75 74 74 73 64

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.

Figure 10.3.10 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016-

2045 Forecast Period

10.3.2.2 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit – Standby and Off-Mode

The following section presents the standby and off-mode annual energy consumption 

results for each product class of central air conditioner, heat pumps, and furnaces.

65.1

65.2

65.3

65.4

65.5

65.6

65.7

65.8

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Annual Heating 

Energy Use (MMBtu/yr)

Base Case

CSL 1
10-57

Central Air Conditioners

Table 10.3.14 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual offmode UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for split system air 

conditioners (both coil-only and blower-coil units) and single package central air conditioners. 

Table 10.3.14 Central Air Conditioner: Shipment-Weighted Off-Mode Average perUnit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL

Split System Coil-Only 

CAC

Split System Blower Coil 

CAC Single Package CAC

SWEF

(Watts)

Annual 

Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)

SWEF

(Watts)

Annual 

Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)

SWEF

(Watts)

Annual 

Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)

1 27.4 13.9 35.4 78.9 35.4 79.6

2 27.4* 13.9 30.0 76.0 30.0 76.5

3 27.4* 13.9 29.0 75.9 29.0 76.4

*For coil-only units, CSL 2 and CSL 3 are identical to CSL 1 because off-mode power limitations are set by blower 

coil and packaged systems. Coil-only units at CSL 1 meet the off-mode power limits of CSL 2 and CSL 3 for 

blower coil and package systems.

Heat Pumps 

Table 10.3.15 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual offmode UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for heat pumps.

Table 10.3.15 Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Off-Mode Average per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL

SWEF 

(Watts)

Split System HP

(kWh/yr)

Single Package HP

(kWh/yr)

1 33.0 19.4 19.5

2 32.0 19.3 19.4

Furnaces

Table 10.3.16 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual

standby and off-mode UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for 

furnaces.
10-58

Table 10.3.16 Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Standby and Off-Mode Average per-Unit 

Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL

Non-Weatherized Gas 

Furnaces Mobile Home Furnaces Oil Furnaces

SWEF 

(Watts)

Annual 

Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)

SWEF 

(Watts)

Annual 

Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)

SWEF 

(Watts)

Annual 

Energy Use 

(kWh/yr)

1 9.8 70.9 9.8 68.2 10.8 74.6

2 9.0 69.1 9.0 67.6 10.0 73.9

10.3.2.3 Equipment Stock

The stock of equipment in any given year depends on annual shipments and the lifetime 

of a given product class. The NIA model keeps track of the number of units shipped each year. 

The lifetime of a unit determines how many units shipped in previous years survive in the given 

year. DOE assumes that products have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The 

probability of survival as a function of years since purchase is termed the survival function. 

Refer to chapter 8 for further details on the survival functions that DOE used in its analysis. 

10.3.2.4 Annual Energy Consumption

For each product class, DOE calculated national annual energy consumption (AEC) and 

AECs for each of the climate regions being evaluated separately. Annual energy consumption is 

the product of the AEC per unit [also termed the unit energy consumption (UEC)] and the 

number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for differences in UEC from year to year. 

The equation for determining annual energy consumption, presented in section 10.3.1, is 

repeated here.

AEC = ∑STOCKV ×UECV

10.3.2.5 Site-to-Source Energy Conversion Factors

In determining annual energy consumption for the Nation and for each of the climate

regions being evaluated separately, DOE initially calculated the annual energy consumption at 

the site (i.e., the energy in kWh consumed at the household or establishment). It then derived 

primary (source) energy from site energy consumption by applying a conversion factor to 

account for losses associated with the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. 

The site-to-source conversion factor is a multiplicative factor used for converting site energy 

consumption into primary or source energy consumption, expressed in quads. DOE used annual 

site-to-source conversion factors based on the version of the National Energy Modeling System 

(NEMS) that corresponds to Energy Information Administration (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook 

2010 (AEO 2010).2 The factors used are average values, which change over time in response to

projected changes in generation sources (the types of power plants projected to provide 

electricity to the country). DOE assumed that conversion factors remain constant at 2035 values 
10-59

throughout the rest of forecast period. Figure 10.3.11 shows the site-to-source conversion factors 

from 2005 to the end of the forecast period (2045).

Figure 10.3.11 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors 

10.4 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL NET PRESENT VALUE

This section describes DOE’s calculation of the national and regional net present value (NPV) of 

costs and savings for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces under various candidate 

standards levels. Calculations were performed for the Nation and each of the climate regions that 

are evaluated separately.

10.4.1 Definition

The NPV is the value in the present of a time-series of costs and savings. The NPV for 

the Nation as a whole and the regions evaluated separately is described by the equation:

NPV PVS PVC _ =

Where:

PVS = present value of savings in operating cost (including costs for energy, repair, and 

maintenance); and 

PVC = present value of increase in total installed cost (including costs for equipment and 

installation). 

DOE determined the PVS and PVC according to the following expressions.

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Site-to-Source Conversion Factors 

(Btu/kWh)

Hot-Dry

Hot-Humid

North

Entire U.S.
10-60

PVS =∑OCSy × DFy

PVC = ∑TICy × DFy

DOE calculated the total annual savings in operating cost for the Nation as a whole and 

the regions evaluated separately by multiplying the number or stock of a given product (by 

vintage) by its per-unit operating cost savings (also by vintage). DOE calculated the total annual 

increase in installed cost for the Nation as a whole and the regions by multiplying the number or 

stock of a given product (by vintage) by its per-unit total installed cost increase (also by vintage). 

Total annual savings in operating cost and increases in installed cost are calculated using the 

following equations.

OCS y = ∑STOCKV ×UOCSV

TICy = ∑STOCKV ×UTICV

Where:

OCS = total annual savings in operating cost each year summed over vintages of 

the product stock, STOCKV;

TIC = total annual increase in installed cost each year summed over vintages of 

the product stock, STOCKV;

DF = discount factor in each year;

STOCKV = stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V that survive in the year for 

which DOE calculated annual energy consumption (vintages range from 

approximately two to approximately 50 years, depending on the retirement 

function of the product);

UOCSV = annual per-unit savings in operating cost;

UTICV = annual total per-unit increase in installed cost;

V = year in which the product was purchased as a new unit; and 

y = year in the forecast (2016–2045).

DOE determined the PVC for each year from the effective date of the standard until 2045. 

DOE determined the PVS for each year from the effective date of the standard until the year 

when units purchased in 2045 retire. DOE calculated costs and savings as the difference between 

a standards case and case without new standards (base case).

DOE calculated a discount factor from the discount rate (7.0%) and the number of years 

between the “present” (2009, the year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in 

which the costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum over time of the discounted net savings.
10-61

10.4.2 Inputs to Calculation

Listed below are the inputs to DOE’s calculation of the NPV of costs and savings for the 

Nation as a whole and the regions evaluated separately.

• Total installed cost per unit,

• annual per-unit savings in operation cost,

• shipments,

• equipment stock (STOCKV),

• total annual increases in installed cost (TIC),

• total annual operating cost (OCS),

• discount factor (DF),

• present value of costs (PVC), and

• present value of savings (PVS).

The total annual increase in installed cost is equal to the annual change in the total perunit installed cost (difference between base case and standards case) multiplied by the shipments 

forecasted for each candidate standards level. As with calculating energy savings, DOE did not 

use base-case shipments to calculate total annual installed costs for all of the product classes. 

DOE assumed that consumers who forgo the purchase of a central air conditioner because of 

standards instead would purchase a room air conditioner, which will cost far less to purchase and 

operate. DOE used the projected shipments and stock for each candidate standard level to 

calculate costs. In the case of heat pumps, DOE assumed that any decrease in shipments caused 

by standards would result in the purchase of an electric furnace plus central air conditioner. Thus 

the analysis tracked sales of electric furnaces and central air conditioners that result from 

decreases in sales of heat pumps.

The annual operating cost includes energy, repair, and maintenance costs. The total 

annual savings in operating cost are equal to the change in the annual operating costs (difference 

between base case and standards case) per unit multiplied by the shipments forecasted for each 

candidate standards level. As with calculating total annual installed costs, DOE did not 

necessarily use base-case shipments to calculate savings in operating cost. 

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit - Efficiency

DOE described the total per-unit installed cost for each product class as a function of 

product efficiency in chapter 8, Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis. Because the total 

per-unit annual installed cost depends directly on efficiency, DOE used the shipments-weighted

efficiencies (SWEFs) for the base and standards cases presented above, combined with the total 

installed cost presented in chapter 8, to estimate the shipments-weighted total per-unit average 

annual installed cost under the base and standards cases. 

In the preliminary analysis, DOE followed its past practice and assumed that the 

manufacturer costs and retail prices of products meeting various efficiency levels remain fixed, 

in real terms, after 2010 (the year for which the engineering analysis estimated costs) and 
10-62

throughout the period of the analysis. As discussed in chapter 8, examination of historical price 

data for certain appliances and equipment that have been subject to energy conservation 

standards indicates that the assumption of constant real prices and costs may, in many cases, 

over-estimate long-term appliance and equipment price trends.

For the direct final rule, DOE applied the learning rates described in appendix 8-J to 

forecast the prices of furnaces, central air conditioners, and heat pumps sold in each year in the 

forecast period. The price in each year is a function of the learning rate and the cumulative 

production of these products forecast in each year. For furnaces, DOE applied the same values to 

forecast prices for each product class at each considered efficiency level. Similarly, for central 

air conditioners and heat pumps, DOE applied the same values to forecast prices for each product 

class at each considered efficiency level. The results presented in this chapter are based on the 

medium learning rates.

The following sections describe the shipments-weighted total per-unit average annual 

installed cost for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces.

Central Air Conditioners—Split System

DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for split system central air conditioners on data 

presented in chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation 

cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average 

overall markup values. Based on the relationship between central air conditioner efficiency 

(SEER) and total installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.1 and Table 10.4.2 present the 

total per-unit installed cost for split system coil-only central air conditioners based on the 

shipments-weighted energy factors (SWEFs) that correspond to the base case and each candidate 

standard level. Table 10.4.1 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted total 

per-unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for 

replacement and new owner installations for the Nation and the three specific regions (hothumid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). Table 10.4.2 presents the same total per-unit installed cost

data but for coil-only units installed in new construction. As noted earlier in section 10.2.1, DOE 

estimated that split system coil-only new construction units would be installed in the same 

manner as split system blower coil only units. As result, coil-only new construction units are 

characterized in the exact same manner as blower coil. In both tables, per-unit total installed 

costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF 

corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.1 demonstrates how the total installed costs for replacement and new 

owner coil-only installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. 

Because SWEFs in the base case and each standards case were forecasted by DOE to increase 

over the forecast period, the corresponding total installed cost increases over time. As noted in 

earlier in section 10.2.1.2, DOE’s approach for forecasting standards case SWEFs assumes that 

the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a rate 

which ensures that the shipment-weighted average total installed cost difference between the 

standards case and base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. This is evident in 

Figure 10.4.1 as the gap in the shipment-weighted total installed cost between CSL 2 and the 
10-63

base case remains constant until 2020. But because SWEFs for coil-only replacements and new 

owner installations are effectively capped at 15 SEER (refer back to section 10.2.1.2), after 2020 

the gap between the shipment-weighted total installed costs for the base case and CSL 2 lessens 

until the total installed costs are equal. 

Table 10.4.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and 

New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total 

Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

SWEF (SEER) 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00

Total 

Installed 

Cost (2009$)

Nation 2241 2253 2295 2343 2816 3330 3415 3495 3584 3654

Hot-Humid 2037 2048 2088 2133 2573 3051 3131 3208 3294 3365

Hot-Dry 2857 2872 2924 2984 3590 4247 4352 4455 4570 4673

Rest-ofCountry 2345 2356 2398 2446 2926 3447 3533 3610 3695 3752

Table 10.4.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost 

for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.50

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 3325 3341 3391 3442 3499 3564 3631 3705 3781 3941 4068 4200 4340 4485 4544 4634

HotHumid 3069 3084 3131 3180 3233 3294 3358 3428 3499 3651 3773 3901 4037 4177 4237 4329

HotDry 4207 4228 4289 4353 4423 4503 4587 4678 4771 4969 5134 5308 5490 5679 5766 5900

Rest-ofCountry 3420 3436 3486 3537 3594 3659 3727 3802 3878 4040 4160 4286 4418 4556 4605 4680
10-64

Figure 10.4.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Units, Replacement and

New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost 

for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045 Forecast Period

Table 10.4.3 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit total 

installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) replacement or 

new owner blower coil installations for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hotdry, and rest-of-country). Table 10.4.4 presents the same per-unit total installed cost data but for 

blower coil units installed in new construction. In both tables, per-unit total installed costs are 

the same for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF 

corresponding to the shipment-weighted per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.2 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction 

blower coil installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For 

the same reasons given above for coil-only units, the gap in the shipment-weighted per-unit total 

installed costs between the CSLs and the base case is maintained over time. 

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Total Installed 

Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-65

Table 10.4.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units Replacement 

and New Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total 

Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 14.92 15.01 15.28 15.57 15.89 16.23 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 23.00 24.50

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 2694 2704 2734 2765 2800 2839 2880 2925 2971 3082 3186 3299 3421 3551 3584 3636

HotHumid 2470 2480 2508 2538 2571 2608 2647 2690 2733 2838 2938 3047 3164 3289 3324 3378

HotDry 3435 3447 3485 3525 3568 3617 3669 3725 3783 3921 4055 4201 4358 4526 4575 4651

Rest-ofCountry 2786 2796 2825 2857 2891 2930 2971 3016 3062 3172 3272 3381 3498 3623 3651 3692

Table 10.4.4 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost 

for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 14.92 15.01 15.28 15.57 15.89 16.23 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 23.00 24.50

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 3485 3498 3535 3573 3616 3664 3715 3770 3827 3964 4080 4206 4342 4485 4544 4634

HotHumid 3221 3232 3267 3304 3344 3390 3438 3490 3544 3672 3785 3907 4038 4177 4237 4329

HotDry 4407 4422 4469 4517 4569 4629 4692 4760 4830 4998 5150 5315 5492 5679 5766 5900

Rest-ofCountry 3580 3592 3629 3668 3711 3760 3811 3866 3924 4062 4172 4291 4420 4556 4605 4680
10-66

Figure 10.4.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New 

Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the 

Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045 Forecast Period

Central Air Conditioners—Single Package

DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for single package central air conditioners on 

data presented in chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and 

installation cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied 

by average overall markup values. Using the relationship between central air conditioner

efficiency (SEER) and total installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.5 presents the base 

case and standards case shipment-weighted total per-unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the 

assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction installations for the Nation. Table 

10.4.6 presents the same total per-unit installed cost data but for units installed as either 

replacements or for new owners. In both tables, per-unit total installed costs are the same for 

both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the 

shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.3 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction 

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same 

reasons given above for split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment-weighted 

per-unit total installed costs between CSL 2 and the base case is maintained over time. 

Table 10.4.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016 

Base Candidate Standard Level

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Total Installed 

Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-67

Case 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.29 13.61 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

Total Installed 

Cost (2009$) Nation 3801 3877 3956 4110 4267 4446 4629 4945

Table 10.4.6 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, Replacement and New Owner 

Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Cost for 

Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.29 13.61 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

Total Installed

Cost (2009$) Nation 2911 2973 3036 3160 3286 3430 3577 3831

Figure 10.4.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: ShipmentWeighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 2 over 

the 2016-2045 Forecast Period

3700

3750

3800

3850

3900

3950

4000

4050

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Total Installed 

Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-68

Heat Pumps—Split System

DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for split system heat pumps on data presented 

in chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation cost. DOE 

based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall 

markup values. Using the relationship between heat pump efficiency (SEER/HSPF) and total 

installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.7 presents the base case and standards case 

shipment-weighted total per-unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of 

new standards) for new construction installations for the Nation and the three specific regions 

(hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). Table 10.4.8 presents the same total per-unit installed 

cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In both tables, per-unit 

total installed costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, 

the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also 

provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.4 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction 

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same 

reasons given above for split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment-weighted 

per-unit total installed costs between the CSLs and the base case are maintained over time. 

Table 10.4.7 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

SWEF 

(SEER) 14.12 14.18 14.45 14.76 15.14 15.58 16.04 16.52 17.01 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00

SWEF 

(HSPF) 8.27 8.29 8.39 8.45 8.53 8.62 8.71 8.81 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.70 9.90 9.90

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 3789 3799 3840 3891 3953 4023 4129 4210 4293 4469 4603 4749 4896 4955

Hot-Humid 3657 3667 3707 3758 3819 3887 3991 4071 4152 4325 4456 4599 4742 4796

Hot-Dry 4892 4905 4956 5021 5099 5185 5316 5416 5518 5732 5920 6124 6328 6418

Rest-ofCountry 3919 3929 3969 4019 4080 4148 4253 4333 4414 4589 4718 4856 4996 5065
10-69

Table 10.4.8 Split System Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

SWEF 

(SEER) 14.12 14.18 14.45 14.76 15.14 15.58 16.04 16.52 17.01 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00

SWEF 

(HSPF) 8.27 8.29 8.39 8.45 8.53 8.62 8.71 8.81 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.70 9.90 9.90

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 2888 2896 2928 2970 3019 3075 3159 3224 3290 3431 3538 3655 3772 3820

Hot-Humid 2774 2782 2814 2855 2903 2958 3041 3104 3169 3308 3412 3526 3639 3684

Hot-Dry 3768 3778 3819 3871 3934 4003 4108 4188 4270 4442 4593 4757 4921 4991

Rest-ofCountry 3027 3034 3066 3107 3155 3210 3293 3357 3422 3561 3665 3777 3889 3945

Figure 10.4.4 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-

2045 Forecast Period

Heat Pumps—Single Package

DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for single package heat pumps on data 

presented in chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation 

cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average 

overall markup values. Using the relationship between heat pump efficiency (SEER/HSPF) and 

total installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.9 presents the base case and standards case 

shipment-weighted total per-unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of 

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

3750

3800

3850

3900

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Total Installed 

Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-70

new standards) for new construction installations for the Nation. Table 10.4.10 presents the 

same total per-unit installed cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new 

owners. In both tables, per-unit total installed costs are the same for both residential and 

commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted 

annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.5 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction 

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same 

reasons given above for split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment-weighted 

per-unit total installed costs between CSL 2 and the base case are maintained over time. 

Table 10.4.9 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.56 13.72 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

SWEF (HSPF) 8.15 8.18 8.31 8.40 8.50 8.60 8.70 8.80

Total Installed

Cost (2009$) Nation 4480 4507 4605 4785 4974 5192 5486 5785

Table 10.4.10 Single Package Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.56 13.72 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

SWEF (HSPF) 8.15 8.18 8.31 8.40 8.50 8.60 8.70 8.80

Total Installed 

Cost (2009$) Nation 3368 3390 3468 3612 3764 3939 4174 4414
10-71

Figure 10.4.5 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-

2045 Forecast Period

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces

DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for non-weatherized gas furnaces on data 

presented in chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation 

cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average 

overall markup values. Using the relationship between furnace efficiency (AFUE) and total 

installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.11 presents the base case and standards case 

shipment-weighted total per-unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of 

new standards) for new construction installations. Table 10.4.12 presents the same total per-unit 

installed cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In each table, 

the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also 

provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.6 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction 

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1) change over time. For the same 

reasons given above for split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment-weighted 

per-unit total installed costs between CSL 1 and the base case are maintained over time. 

4350

4400

4450

4500

4550

4600

4650

4700

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Total Installed 

Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-72

Table 10.4.11 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 86.56 91.37 92.53 95.01 98.00

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 2420 2411 2449 2587 2912

Hot-Humid* 2010 1943 1992 2129 2427

Hot-Dry* 2592 2617 2686 2855 3252

Rest-of-Country 2528 2527 2555 2681 2997

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.

Table 10.4.12 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 86.56 91.37 92.53 95.01 98.00

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 2038 2393 2440 2557 2803

Hot-Humid* 1491 2018 2062 2183 2426

Hot-Dry* 1778 2428 2479 2604 2881

Rest-of-Country 2329 2549 2578 2688 2926

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.
10-73

Figure 10.4.6 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted 

Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016-

2045 Forecast Period

Mobile Home Furnaces

DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for mobile home furnaces on data presented in 

chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation cost. DOE 

based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall 

markup values. Using the relationship between furnace efficiency (AFUE) and total installed 

cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.13 presents the base case and standards case shipmentweighted total per-unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new 

standards) for new construction installations. Table 10.4.14 presents the same total per-unit 

installed cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In each table, 

the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also 

provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.7 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction 

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1) change over time. For the same 

reasons given above for split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment-weighted 

per-unit total installed costs between CSL 1 and the base case are maintained over time. 

$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

$2,500

$2,600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted 

Total Installed Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 1
10-74

Table 10.4.13 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3

SWEF (AFUE) 81.24 90.29 92.14 96.00

Total 

Installed Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 1575 2017 2172 2432

Hot-Humid* 1422 1846 2002 2260

Hot-Dry* 1651 2104 2255 2519

Rest-of-Country 1631 2079 2234 2494

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.

Table 10.4.14 Mobile Home Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3

SWEF (AFUE) 81.24 90.29 92.14 96.00

Total 

Installed Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 1456 2115 2345 2649

Hot-Humid* 1262 1844 2075 2373

Hot-Dry* 1592 2305 2540 2848

Rest-of-Country 1514 2195 2421 2727

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.
10-75

Figure 10.4.7 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average 

Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016-2045

Forecast Period

Oil Furnaces

DOE based its total per-unit installed cost for oil furnaces on data presented in chapter 8.

The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation cost. DOE based average 

equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall markup values. 

Using the relationship between furnace efficiency (AFUE) and total installed cost presented in 

chapter 8, Table 10.4.15 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted total perunit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new 

construction installations. Table 10.4.16 presents the same total per-unit installed cost data but 

for units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In each table, the SWEF 

corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.8 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction 

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1) change over time. For the same 

reasons given above for split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment-weighted 

per-unit total installed costs between CSL 1 and the base case are maintained over time. 

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted 

Total Installed Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 1
10-76

Table 10.4.15 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 83.41 83.83 84.44 85.11 97.00

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 4579 4671 4652 4637 4646

Hot-Humid* 3858 3933 3921 3905 4001

Hot-Dry* 3860 3932 3921 3905 4001

Rest-of-Country 4654 4747 4728 4713 4713

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.

Table 10.4.16 Oil Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards 

Cases in 2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 83.41 83.83 84.44 85.11 97.00

Total 

Installed 

Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 3128 3186 3350 3521 4828

Hot-Humid* 2631 2675 2800 2949 4082

Hot-Dry* 2648 2690 2809 2953 4082

Rest-of-Country 3188 3248 3417 3590 4918

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.
10-77

Figure 10.4.8 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Total 

Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016-2045 Forecast 

Period

10.4.2.2 Total Installed Cost per Unit – Standby and Off-Mode

The following section presents the shipments-weighted total per-unit standby and offmode average annual installed cost for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces.

Central Air Conditioners

Table 10.4.17 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual offmode total installed cost in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for split 

system air conditioners (both coil-only and blower-coil units) and single package central air 

conditioners. 

$3,700

$3,900

$4,100

$4,300

$4,500

$4,700

$4,900

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted 

Total Installed Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 1
10-78

Table 10.4.17 Central Air Conditioner: Shipment-Weighted Off-Mode Average perUnit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL

Split System Coil-Only 

CAC

Split System Blower Coil 

CAC Single Package CAC

SWEF

(Watts)

Total 

Installed 

Cost

(2009$)

SWEF

(Watts)

Total 

Installed 

Cost

(2009$)

SWEF

(Watts)

Total 

Installed 

Cost

(2009$)

1 27.4 1.8 35.4 22.0 35.4 22.1

2 27.4* 1.8 30.0 27.9 30.0 28.3

3 27.4* 1.8 29.0 28.5 29.0 28.8

*For coil-only units, CSL 2 and CSL 3 are identical to CSL 1 because off-mode power limitations are set by blower 

coil and packaged systems. Coil-only units at CSL 1 meet the off-mode power limits of CSL 2 and CSL 3 for 

blower coil and package systems.

Heat Pumps 

Table 10.4.18 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual offmode total installed cost in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for heat 

pumps. 

Table 10.4.18 Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Off-Mode Average per-Unit Total 

Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL

SWEF 

(Watts)

Split System HP

(2009$)

Single Package HP

(2009$)

1 33.0 28.8 28.9

2 32.0 32.8 32.9

Furnaces 

Table 10.4.19 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual 

standby and off-mode total installed cost in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new 

standards) for furnaces. 

Table 10.4.19 Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Standby and Off-Mode Average per-Unit 

Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL

Non-Weatherized Gas 

Furnaces Mobile Home Furnaces Oil Furnaces

SWEF 

(Watts)

Total 

Installed 

Cost

(2009$)

SWEF 

(Watts)

Total 

Installed 

Cost

(2009$)

SWEF 

(Watts)

Total 

Installed 

Cost

(2009$)

1 9.8 3.2 9.8 1.4 10.8 1.1

2 9.0 8.1 9.0 3.5 10.0 2.7
10-79

10.4.2.3 Annual Operating Cost per Unit 

The per-unit annual operating cost includes costs for energy, repair, and maintenance. 

DOE calculated the annual savings in cost per unit for the nation as a whole and for the climate

regions that were evaluated separately. 

Annual Energy Costs

DOE determined the per-unit annual savings in energy costs by multiplying the per-unit 

annual savings in energy consumption developed for each product class by the appropriate 

energy price. 

For central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces, estimates of the per-unit annual 

energy consumption for the base case and each standards case were presented in section 10.3.2.1.

As described previously, DOE forecasted the per-unit annual energy consumption for the base 

case and each standards case for all product classes by applying a growth trend in efficiency. 

Energy prices and trends in energy prices are described in chapter 8. DOE forecasted 

energy prices based on EIA’s AEO2010.

2

Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs

DOE described the total per-unit repair and maintenance costs for each product class as a 

function of product efficiency in chapter 8. Because the per-unit repair and maintenance costs 

depend directly on efficiency, DOE used the shipments-weight efficiencies (SWEFs) for the base 

and standards cases presented in section 10.2, combined with the repair and maintenance costs

presented in chapter 8, to estimate the shipments-weighted per-unit average repair and 

maintenance costs under the base and standards cases. 

Split System Central Air Conditioners

Based on the relationship between central air conditioner efficiency (SEER) and repair 

and maintenance costs presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.20 presents the base case and standards 

case shipment-weighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs for coil-only replacement and new 

owner installations in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation 

and the three specific regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). The per-unit repair and 

maintenance costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations. Table 10.4.21 

presents the same but for new construction installations. As noted earlier in section 10.2.1, DOE 

estimated that split system coil-only new construction units would be installed in the same 

manner as split system blower coil only units. As a result, coil-only new construction units are 

characterized in the exact same manner as blower coil. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to 

the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit repair and maintenance costs change 

over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.9 demonstrates how the costs for coil-only installations for 

the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. Because SWEFs in the base 

case and each standards case were forecasted by DOE to increase over the forecast period, the 

corresponding repair and maintenance costs increase over time. As noted in earlier in section 

10.2.1.2, DOE’s approach for forecasting standards case SWEFs assumes that the rate of 
10-80

adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a rate which 

ensures that the shipment-weighted average total installed cost difference between the standards 

case and base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. Because the change in repair 

and maintenance costs (as a function of efficiency) mirrors the change in total installed costs, the 

repair and maintenance cost difference between the standards case and base case over the entire 

forecast period also remains constant. This is evident in Figure 10.4.9 as the gap in the shipmentweighted repair and maintenance costs between CSL 2 and the base case remains constant over 

time. But because SWEFs for coil-only replacements are effectively capped at 15 SEER (refer 

back to section 10.2.1.2), after 2020 the gap between the shipment-weighted total installed costs 

for the base case and CSL 2 lessens until the total installed costs are equal.

Table 10.4.20 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only, Replacement and New 

Owner Units: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair and 

Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

SWEF (SEER) 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00

Repair and 

Maintenance 

Costs (2009$)

Nation 130 130 132 134 136 140 143 146 150 153

Hot-Humid 113 113 115 117 120 123 126 129 133 136

Hot-Dry 159 159 161 163 166 169 173 177 181 184

Rest-ofCountry 145 145 147 149 152 155 159 162 165 168

Table 10.4.21 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only, New Construction: 

Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for 

Base and Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.50

Repair and 

Maintenance 

Costs 

(2009$)

Nation 128 128 129 131 132 134 135 137 139 143 146 149 152 156 157 160

HotHumid 111 112 113 114 115 117 119 120 122 126 129 132 135 139 140 143

HotDry 157 157 159 160 161 163 165 167 169 173 176 180 184 188 189 192

Rest-ofCountry 143 143 144 146 147 149 150 152 154 158 161 164 168 171 172 174
10-81

Figure 10.4.9 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil-Only Replacement and New 

Owner Markets: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and 

Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045

Forecast Period

Table 10.4.22 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit 

repair and maintenance costs for split system central air conditioner blower coil installations in 

the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific 

regions (hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are 

the same for both residential and commercial installations as well as new construction and 

replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipmentweighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.10 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower 

coil installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the 

same reasons given above for coil-only units, the gap in the shipment-weighted per-unit repair 

and maintenance costs between the standards case and the base case are maintained over time. 

$135

$136

$137

$138

$139

$140

$141

$142

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Average Repair and 

Maintenance Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-82

Table 10.4.22 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: ShipmentWeighted Average per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and 

Standards Cases in 2016 

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 14.92 15.01 15.28 15.57 15.89 16.23 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 23.00 24.50

Repair and 

Maintenance 

Costs 

(2009$)

Nation 128 128 129 131 132 134 135 137 139 143 146 149 152 156 157 160

HotHumid 111 112 113 114 115 117 119 120 122 126 129 132 135 139 140 143

HotDry 157 157 159 160 161 163 165 167 169 173 176 180 184 188 189 192

Rest-ofCountry 143 143 144 146 147 149 150 152 154 158 161 164 168 171 172 174

Figure 10.4.10 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: ShipmentWeighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base 

Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045 Forecast Period

Single Package Central Air Conditioners

Table 10.4.23 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit 

repair and maintenance costs for single package central air conditioner installations in the year 

2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation). The per-unit repair and 

maintenance costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations as well as new 

construction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding 

to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

$138

$140

$142

$144

$146

$148

$150

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Average Repair and 

Maintenance Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-83

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.11 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower 

coil installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the 

same reasons given above for split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipmentweighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs between the standards case and the base case are 

maintained over time. 

Table 10.4.23 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average 

per-Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 

2016 

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.29 13.61 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

Repair and Maint. 

Cost (2009$) Nation 126 128 130 133 136 140 144 151

Figure 10.4.11 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment-Weighted Average 

Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over 

the 2016-2045 Forecast Period

Split System Heat Pumps

Table 10.4.24 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit 

repair and maintenance costs for split system heat pump installations in the year 2016 (the 

assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific regions (hothumid, hot-dry, and rest-of-country). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for 

both residential and commercial installations as well as new construction and replacement/new 

owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual 

per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

$130

$135

$140

$145

$150

$155

$160

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Average Repair and 

Maintenance Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-84

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.12 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower 

coil installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the 

same reasons given above for split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipmentweighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs between the standards case and the base case are 

maintained over time. 

Table 10.4.24 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair 

and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

SWEF 

(SEER) 14.12 14.18 14.45 14.76 15.14 15.58 16.04 16.52 17.01 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00

SWEF 

(HSPF) 8.27 8.29 8.39 8.45 8.53 8.62 8.71 8.81 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.70 9.9 9.9

Repair and 

Maint. Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 122 122 123 124 126 127 129 131 133 137 140 143 146 147

HotHumid 114 114 115 116 117 119 121 123 124 128 131 134 137 139

Hot-Dry 158 158 159 160 162 163 166 167 169 173 177 180 184 186

Rest-ofCountry 143 143 144 145 146 148 150 152 154 158 161 164 167 168
10-85

Figure 10.4.12 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair 

and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045

Forecast Period

Single Package Heat Pumps

Table 10.4.25 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit 

repair and maintenance costs for single package heat pump installations in the year 2016 (the 

assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation. The per-unit repair and maintenance 

costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations as well as new construction 

and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the 

shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.13 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower 

coil installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the 

same reasons given above for split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipmentweighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs between the standards case and the base case is

maintained over time. 

$118

$120

$122

$124

$126

$128

$130

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Average Repair and 

Maintenance Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-86

Table 10.4.25 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Repair and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base 

Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.56 13.72 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

SWEF (HSPF) 8.15 8.18 8.31 8.40 8.50 8.60 8.70 8.80

Repair and 

Maint. Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 123 123 125 128 131 135 140 145

Figure 10.4.13 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair 

and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016-2045

Forecast Period

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces

Table 10.4.26 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit 

repair and maintenance costs for non-weatherized gas furnaces in the year 2016 (the assumed 

effective date of new standards). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for new 

construction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding 

to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit repair and maintenance costs change 

over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.14 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for 

non-weatherized gas furnace installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1) 

change over time. For the same reasons given above for split system central air conditioners, the 

$130

$135

$140

$145

$150

$155

$160

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Average Repair and 

Maintenance Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 2
10-87

gap in the shipment-weighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs between CSL 1 and the base 

case is maintained over time. 

Table 10.4.26 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit 

Repair and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (SEER) 86.56 91.37 92.53 95.01 98.00

Repair and 

Maint. Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 40 40 41 41 41

Hot-Humid* 38 38 38 38 38

Hot-Dry* 42 42 43 43 43

Rest-of-Country 41 41 41 41 41

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.

Figure 10.4.14 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual 

Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 

2016-2045 Forecast Period

$40.5

$40.5

$40.5

$40.6

$40.6

$40.6

$40.6

$40.6

$40.7

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Average Repair and 

Maintenance Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 1
10-88

Mobile Home Furnaces

Table 10.4.27 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit 

repair and maintenance costs for mobile home furnace installations in the year 2016 (the 

assumed effective date of new standards). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the 

same for new construction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF 

corresponding to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.15 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for mobile 

home furnaces for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1) change over time. For the same 

reasons given above for split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment-weighted 

per-unit repair and maintenance costs between the standards case and the base case is maintained 

over time. 

Table 10.4.27 Mobile Home Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair 

and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3

SWEF (SEER) 81.24 90.29 92.14 96.00

Repair and 

Maint. Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 42 42 42 42

Hot-Humid* 42 42 42 42

Hot-Dry* 42 42 42 42

Rest-of-Country 41 42 42 42

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.
10-89

Figure 10.4.15 Mobile Home Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Repair and 

Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016-2045

Forecast Period

Oil Furnaces

Table 10.4.28 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted per-unit 

repair and maintenance costs for oil furnace installations in the year 2016 (the assumed effective 

date of new standards). The per-unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for new 

construction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding 

to the shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment-weighted annual per-unit total installed costs change over the 

forecast period, Figure 10.4.16 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower 

coil installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1) change over time. For the 

same reasons given above for split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipmentweighted per-unit repair and maintenance costs between the standards case and the base case is

maintained over time. 

$41.5

$41.5

$41.5

$41.5

$41.6

$41.6

$41.6

$41.6

$41.6

$41.6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Average Repair and 

Maintenance Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 1
10-90

Table 10.4.28 Oil Furnaces: Shipment-Weighted Average per-Unit Repair and 

Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case

Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (SEER) 83.41 83.83 84.44 85.11 97.00

Repair and 

Maint. Cost 

(2009$)

Nation 63 63 63 63 192

Hot-Humid* 61 61 61 61 164

Hot-Dry* 61 61 61 61 164

Rest-of-Country 63 63 63 63 196

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot-humid and hot-dry regions to 

maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.

Figure 10.4.16 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual 

Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 

2016-2045 Forecast Period

10.4.2.4 Equipment Stock

The stock of equipment in any given year depends on annual shipments and the lifetime 

of a given product class. The NIA model keeps track of the number of units shipped each year. 

The lifetime of a unit determines how many units shipped in previous years survive in the given 

year. DOE assumes that products have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The 

probability of survival as a function of years since purchase is termed the survival function. 

Refer to the specific section for each product class in chapter 9, Shipments Analysis, for further 

details on the survival functions that DOE used in its analysis. 

$63.0

$63.1

$63.1

$63.2

$63.2

$63.3

$63.3

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Shipment Weighted Average Repair and 

Maintenance Costs (2009$)

Base Case

CSL 1
10-91

10.4.2.5 Increases in Total Annual Installed Cost 

The increase in total annual installed cost for a product under any given standards case is 

the product of the increase in total installed cost per unit attributable to the standard and the 

number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for differences in total installed cost from 

year to year. The equation for determining the total annual installed cost increase for a given 

candidate standards level, presented in section 10.4.1 is repeated here.

TIC = ∑STOCKV ×UTICV

As noted earlier, when considering heat pumps DOE accounted for the total installed cost 

for those consumers who decided to switch from a heat pump to an electric furnace plus central 

air conditioner because standards increased the cost of new units. Therefore, the total annual 

increase in installed cost accounts for the total installed cost of central air conditioners purchased 

in lieu of new heat pumps.

10.4.2.6 Savings in Total Annual Operating Cost

The savings in total annual operating cost for any given candidate standards level is the 

product of the annual per-unit savings in operating cost attributable to the standard and the 

number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for the year-to-year differences in annual 

operating cost savings. The equation for determining the total annual savings in operating cost 

for a given candidate standards level, which was presented in section 10.4.1, is repeated here.

OCS =∑STOCKV ×UOCSV

As noted earlier, when considering heat pumps DOE accounted for the energy use of 

those consumers who decided to switch from a heat pump to an electric furnace and central air 

conditioner in response to standards. Therefore, the total annual savings in operating cost 

accounts for the energy costs of the central air conditioners purchased in lieu of heat pumps.

10.4.2.7 Discount Factors

DOE multiplied monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine the 

present value. The discount factor (DF) is described by the equation:

( y yp ) _

( r )

DF

1+

1 =

Where:

r = discount rate, 

y = year of the monetary value, and 

yP = year in which the present value is being determined.
10-92

Although DOE used consumer discount rates to determine the life-cycle cost of 

refrigeration products (chapter 8), it used national discount rates to calculate national NPV. DOE 

estimated NPV using both a 3-percent and a 7-percent real discount rate, in accordance with the

Office of Management and Budget’s guidance to Federal agencies on the development of 

regulatory analysis, particularly section E therein: Identifying and Measuring Benefits and 

Costs.

3

10.4.2.8 Present Value of Increased Installed Cost

 DOE defined the present year as 2009.

The present value of increased installed cost is the difference between installation cost in 

each standards case and the base case discounted to the present and summed throughout the 

period over which DOE is considering the installation of units (from the effective date of 

standards, 2016, to 2045).

The increase in total installed cost refers to both the purchase price and installation cost

associated with the more expensive units purchased in the standards case compared to the base 

case. DOE calculated annual increases in installed cost as the difference in total installed cost for 

new equipment purchased each year, multiplied by the shipments in the standards case.

10.4.2.9 Present Value of Savings

The present value of annual savings in operating cost is the difference between the base 

case and each standards case discounted to the present and summed throughout the period from 

the effective date, 2016, to the time when the last unit installed in 2045 is retired from service.

Savings represent decreases in operating cost (including electricity, repair, and 

maintenance) associated with the more energy efficient equipment purchased in each standards 

case compared to the base case. Total annual savings in operating cost are the savings per unit 

multiplied by the number of units of each vintage that survive in a particular year. For units 

purchased in 2045, energy consumption continues until the unit is retired from service.

10.5 RESULTS OF CALCULATIONS

The National Impacts Analysis (NIA) model estimates the national energy savings 

(NES), the regional energy savings (RES), and the net present value (NPV) attributable to each 

candidate standards level. DOE generated the NES, RES, and NPV results using a Microsoft 

Excel spreadsheet, which is accessible on the Internet:

(http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/). Details and instructions for using 

the spreadsheet are provided in appendix 10-A.
10-93

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs

Table 10.5.1 summarizes the inputs to the NIA model. The inputs were discussed in

sections 10.3.2 (inputs for NES and RES) and 10.4.2 (inputs for the national and regional NPV).

A brief description of the data source or each input also is provided in Table 10.5.1.

Table 10.5.1 Inputs to Calculations

Input Data Description

Shipments Annual shipments from shipments model (chapter 9).

Effective date of standard 2016.

Forecasted efficiencies for base 

case

SWEF* determined in the year 2016 for each product class. Growth trend 

applied to SWEF throughout forecast period, 2016–2045 (section 10.2).

Efficiencies for standards case Growth trends applied to determine SWEF for each standards case and each 

product class for 2016–2045 (section 10.2).

Annual energy consumption per 

unit

Annual weighted-average values are a function of SWEF (section 10.3.2.1).

Total installed cost per unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of SWEF (section 10.4.2.1).

Energy cost per unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of annual energy consumption 

per unit and energy prices. (See section 8.2.3.1 of chapter 8 for energy prices.)

Repair and maintenance costs

per unit

Annual weighted-average values are a function of SWEF (section 10.4.2.3).

Increase in energy prices EIA AEO 2010 forecasts (to 2035) and extrapolation to 2045. (See chapter 8.)

Energy site-to-source conversion Conversion factor, which changes yearly, is generated by DOE/EIA’s NEMS†

program as a time-series factor that includes electric generation, transmission, 

and distribution losses.

Discount rate Three and seven percent real.

Present year Future expenses are discounted to 2011.

* SWEF = shipments-weighted energy factor (efficiency).

† NEMS = National Energy Modeling System. Chapter 13, Utility Impact Analysis, provides more detail on 

NEMS.

10.5.2 National and Regional Energy Savings by Candidate Standard Level - Efficiency

The following sections provide the national energy savings (NES) and regional energy 

savings (RES) that DOE calculated for each of the candidate standard levels (CSLs) analyzed for 

central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces. Results, which are cumulative to 2045, are 

shown as primary energy savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted-average 

values, producing results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values such 

as is generated by the life-cycle cost and payback period analyses. 

For single-package air conditioners and single-package heat pumps, DOE has analyzed 

the regional standards on a national basis because the standard would be identical in each region. 

Additionally, given the low level of shipments of these products, DOE determined that an 

analysis of regional standards would not produce significant differences in comparison to a 

single national standard. DOE made a similar determination for oil-fired furnaces.
10-94

10.5.2.1 Central Air Conditioners

This section provides NES and RES results for the efficiency levels considered for the 

two product classes of central air conditioners (split system and single package). 

Central Air Conditioners—Split System

Table 10.5.2 show the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for split system central air 

conditioners for the residential and commercial sector. The table shows the breakdown of energy 

savings for coil-only units and blower coil units. 

Table 10.5.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy 

Savings from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

CSLSEER

Nation (quads) Hot-Humid (quads) Hot-Dry (quads) Rest of Cntry (quads)

Total*

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total*

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total*

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total*

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil

1 13.5 0.079 0.063 0.017 0.045 0.036 0.009 0.013 0.010 0.003 0.022 0.017 0.005

2 14 0.343 0.278 0.065 0.191 0.155 0.036 0.055 0.045 0.010 0.097 0.078 0.019

3 14.5 0.668 0.555 0.113 0.366 0.305 0.061 0.107 0.089 0.018 0.195 0.162 0.033

4 15 1.567 1.407 0.161 0.853 0.765 0.088 0.248 0.222 0.026 0.467 0.419 0.047

5 15.5 2.515 2.303 0.212 1.366 1.251 0.115 0.396 0.362 0.034 0.753 0.690 0.062

6 16 4.154 3.893 0.261 2.268 2.126 0.142 0.660 0.618 0.042 1.226 1.149 0.077

7 16.5 4.538 4.228 0.310 2.487 2.317 0.170 0.722 0.672 0.050 1.329 1.238 0.091

8 17 4.821 4.463 0.358 2.649 2.453 0.196 0.767 0.710 0.057 1.405 1.300 0.105

9 18 5.216 4.755 0.460 2.872 2.620 0.252 0.830 0.757 0.073 1.513 1.379 0.135

10 19 5.442 4.904 0.537 3.000 2.704 0.296 0.869 0.783 0.086 1.572 1.417 0.155

11 20 5.651 5.041 0.610 3.118 2.781 0.337 0.905 0.807 0.098 1.628 1.453 0.175

12 21 5.838 5.164 0.674 3.226 2.852 0.374 0.937 0.828 0.109 1.675 1.484 0.191

13 22 5.962 5.247 0.715 3.300 2.901 0.399 0.958 0.842 0.115 1.705 1.504 0.201

14 23 5.989 5.265 0.724 3.316 2.912 0.404 0.962 0.846 0.117 1.710 1.508 0.203

15 24.5 6.006 5.277 0.729 3.327 2.919 0.408 0.965 0.848 0.117 1.714 1.510 0.204

Central Air Conditioners—Single Package

Table 10.5.3 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for single package central 

air conditioners for the residential and commercial sector.
10-95

Table 10.5.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy 

Savings from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL SEER Nation (quads)

1 13.5 0.059

2 14.0 0.112

3 14.5 0.198

4 15.0 0.266

5 15.5 0.325

6 16.0 0.362

7 16.5 0.385

10.5.2.2 Heat Pumps

This section provides NES and RES results for the efficiency levels considered for the 

two product classes of heat pumps (split system and single package). 

Heat Pumps—Split System

Table 10.5.4 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for split system heat pumps 

for the residential and commercial sector. 

Table 10.5.4 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional Energy 

Savings from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL SEER HSPF Nation(quads) Hot-Humid (quads) Hot-Dry(quads) Rest of Country(quads)

1 13.5 8.1 0.076 0.059 0.008 0.009

2 14.0 8.3 0.380 0.294 0.042 0.044

3 14.5 8.4 0.738 0.571 0.081 0.085

4 15.0 8.5 1.139 0.881 0.125 0.133

5 15.5 8.6 1.561 1.205 0.171 0.185

6 16.0 8.7 2.176 1.677 0.237 0.262

7 16.5 8.8 2.637 2.031 0.287 0.319

8 17.0 9.0 3.081 2.371 0.335 0.374

9 18.0 9.2 3.943 3.035 0.427 0.481

10 19.0 9.4 4.524 3.476 0.498 0.551

11 20.0 9.7 4.969 3.809 0.555 0.604

12 21.0 9.9 5.177 3.963 0.582 0.632

13 22.0 9.9 5.197 3.978 0.584 0.636

Heat Pumps—Single Package

Table 10.5.5 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for single package heat 

pumps for the residential and commercial sector.
10-96

Table 10.5.5 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National Energy Savings from 

2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL SEER HSPF Nation (quads)

1 13.5 7.9 0.015

2 14.0 8.1 0.063

3 14.5 8.3 0.139

4 15.0 8.4 0.035

5 15.5 8.6 0.257

6 16.0 8.8 0.301

7 16.5 9.0 0.319

10.5.2.3 Furnaces

This section provides NES and RES results for the efficiency levels considered for the 

three product classes of furnaces.

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces

Table 10.5.6 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for non-weatherized gas 

furnaces for the Nation and the North and South region. 

Table 10.5.6 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Cumulative National and Regional 

Energy Savings from 2016-2045

CSL AFUE Nation (quads) North(quads) South(quads)

1 90% 4.36 1.98 2.39

2 92% 4.79 2.16 2.63

3 95% 5.80 2.76 3.04

4 98% 6.40 3.03 3.37

Mobile Home Furnaces

Table 10.5.7 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for mobile home furnaces 

for the Nation and the North and South region. 

Table 10.5.7 Mobile Home Furnaces: Cumulative National and Regional Energy 

Savings from 2016-2045

CSL AFUE Nation (quads) North(quads) South(quads)

1 90% 0.28 0.18 0.11

2 92% 0.34 0.21 0.13

3 96% 0.43 0.27 0.16
10-97

Oil Furnaces

Table 10.5.8 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for oil furnaces for the 

Nation and the North and South region. 

Table 10.5.8 Oil Furnaces: Cumulative National and Regional Energy Savings from 

2016-2045

CSL AFUE Nation (quads) North(quads) South(quads)

1 83% 0.012 0.010 0.002

2 84% 0.034 0.029 0.005

3 85% 0.060 0.052 0.008

4 97% 0.388 0.337 0.051

10.5.3 National Energy Savings by Candidate Standard Level – Standby and Off-Mode

The following sections provide the standby and off-mode national energy savings (NES) 

that DOE calculated for each of the candidate standard levels (CSLs) analyzed for central air 

conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces. Results, which are cumulative through 2045, are shown 

as primary energy savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted-average values, 

producing results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values such as is 

generated by the life-cycle cost and payback period analyses. 

10.5.3.1 Central Air Conditioners

Table 10.5.9 shows the off-mode energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for central air 

conditioners for the residential and commercial sectors. The table shows the breakdown of 

energy savings for coil-only units and blower coil units for split system central air conditioners. 
10-98

Table 10.5.9 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Off-Mode National Energy 

Savings from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector 

CSL

Off-Mode

(Watts)

Split System CAC Single Package 

Coil Only Blower Coil CAC

NES (quads) NES (quads) NES (quads)

1 36 0.066 0.007 0.007

2 30 0.066 0.012 0.011

3 29 0.066 0.012 0.011

10.5.3.2 Heat Pumps 

Heat Pumps—Split System

Table 10.5.10 shows the off-mode energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for heat pumps

for the residential and commercial sectors. 

Table 10.5.10 Heat Pumps: Cumulative Off-Mode National Energy Savings from 2016-

2045

CSL

Off-Mode

(Watts)

Split System HP Single Package HP

NES (quads) NES (quads)

1 33 0.030 0.004

2 32 0.031 0.004

10.5.3.3 Furnaces

Table 10.5.11 shows the standby and off-model energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for 

furnaces.

Table 10.5.11 Furnaces: Cumulative Standby and Off-Mode National Energy Savings 

from 2016-2045

CSL

Non-Weatherized Gas

Furnaces Mobile Home Furnaces Oil Furnaces

Off-Mode

(Watts)

NES

(quads)

Off-Mode

(Watts)

NES 

(quads)

Off-Mode

(Watts)

NES 

(quads)

1 10 0.059 10 0.001 11 0.000

2 9 0.059 9 0.001 10 0.000
10-99

10.5.4 Calculating Annual Cost and Savings

To illustrate the basic inputs to the calculations of net present value (NPV) of costs and 

savings attributable to proposed standards for central air conditioners and heat pumps, Figure 

10.5.1 shows the non-discounted annual increases in installed cost and annual savings in 

operating cost at the national level for CSL 2 for split system coil-only central air conditioners. 

The figure also shows net savings, which is the difference between the savings and costs for each 

year. The annual total installed cost is the increase in the total installed cost for products 

purchased each year for 2016–2045. The annual savings in operating cost applies to products that 

are operating in each year. The NPV is the difference between the cumulative annual discounted 

savings and the cumulative annual discounted cost. DOE could create figures like the one below 

for every standards case for all product classes considered. 

Figure 10.5.1 Non-Discounted Annual Increases in Installed Cost and Savings in 

Operating Cost for Split System Coil-Only Central Air Conditioners, 

CSL 2

10.5.5 Net Present Value Results by Candidate Standard Level - Efficiency

The following sections provide results of calculating the net present value (NPV) for each 

candidate standard level considered for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces. 

Results were calculated for the nation as a whole and for each of the climate regions considered. 

-$0.20

-$0.15

-$0.10

-$0.05

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

2013 2023 2033 2043

Billions of 2009 Dollars

Equipment Cost

Energy Cost Savings

Net Savings
10-100

Results, which are cumulative, are shown as the discounted dollar value of the savings. DOE 

based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted-average values, yielding results that are discrete 

point values, rather than a distribution of values such as produced by the life-cycle cost and 

payback period analyses.

The present value of increased total installed cost is the total annual increase (the 

difference between the standards case and base case) discounted to the present and summed 

throughout the period for which DOE forecasted shipments (from the compliance date of 

standards, 2016, to 2045).

Savings derive from decreases in operating costs related to the energy consumption 

associated with the higher energy efficiency of equipment purchased in the standards case 

compared to the base case. Total savings in operating costs are the savings per unit multiplied by 

the number of units of each vintage (i.e., the year of manufacture) that survive in a particular 

year. Equipment consumes energy, and must be maintained throughout its lifetime. For units 

purchased through 2045, the operating cost includes energy consumed until the last unit is retired 

from service.

For single-package air conditioners and single-package heat pumps, DOE has analyzed 

the regional standards on a national basis because the standard would be identical in each region. 

Additionally, given the low level of shipments of these products, DOE determined that an 

analysis of regional standards would not produce significant differences in comparison to a 

single national standard. DOE made a similar determination for oil-fired furnaces.

10.5.5.1 Central Air Conditioners

The following sections provide the results of calculating net present value (NPV) for the 

candidate standard levels DOE analyzed for the two product classes of central air conditioners, 

split system and single package. 

Central Air Conditioners—Split System

Table 10.5.12 shows the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed 

for split system central air conditioners for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three 

climate regions evaluated separately (the hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). Table 

10.5.13 shows the NPVs at a seven percent real discount rate. Each table shows the breakdown 

of the NPV for coil-only units and blower coil units. 
10-101

Table 10.5.12 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National 

and Regional NPV Results (3% Discount Rate)

CSLSEER

Nation (bill 2009$) Hot-Humid (bill 2009$) Hot-Dry (bill 2009$) Rest of Cntry (bill 

2009$

Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil

1 13.5 0.26 0.21 0.05 0.20 0.16 0.03 0.14 0.12 0.02 -0.08 -0.07 -0.01

2 14.0 0.93 0.77 0.16 0.76 0.63 0.13 0.53 0.45 0.09 -0.36 -0.31 -0.05

3 14.5 1.61 1.36 0.25 1.35 1.14 0.21 0.95 0.80 0.15 -0.68 -0.58 -0.11

4 15.0 -21.59 -21.89 0.30 -4.46 -4.75 0.29 -3.11 -3.31 0.20 -14.01 -13.83 -0.18

5 15.5 -46.52 -46.85 0.33 -10.69 -11.05 0.36 -7.52 -7.76 0.25 -28.31 -28.04 -0.27

6 16.0 -54.91 -55.21 0.30 -11.46 -11.87 0.41 -7.92 -8.20 0.28 -35.54 -35.14 -0.40

7 16.5 -57.70 -57.91 0.22 -11.86 -12.30 0.44 -8.15 -8.46 0.31 -37.69 -37.15 -0.54

8 17.0 -59.80 -59.89 0.09 -12.17 -12.64 0.47 -8.35 -8.68 0.33 -39.27 -38.57 -0.71

9 18.0 -62.42 -62.08 -0.34 -12.50 -12.96 0.47 -8.57 -8.91 0.34 -41.35 -40.21 -1.14

10 19.0 -63.94 -63.13 -0.81 -12.69 -13.11 0.41 -8.69 -9.00 0.31 -42.56 -41.02 -1.53

11 20.0 -65.83 -64.43 -1.40 -13.03 -13.34 0.31 -8.91 -9.16 0.25 -43.89 -41.92 -1.97

12 21.0 -67.99 -65.96 -2.04 -13.49 -13.68 0.19 -9.23 -9.40 0.16 -45.27 -42.88 -2.39

13 22.0 -69.89 -67.36 -2.53 -13.94 -14.02 0.08 -9.60 -9.67 0.08 -46.35 -43.67 -2.68

14 23.0 -70.41 -67.77 -2.64 -14.09 -14.14 0.05 -9.73 -9.78 0.05 -46.59 -43.85 -2.74

15 24.5 -70.79 -68.06 -2.72 -14.20 -14.22 0.03 -9.83 -9.86 0.03 -46.76 -43.98 -2.78
10-102

Table 10.5.13 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National 

and Regional NPV Results (7% Discount Rate)

CSLSEER

Nation (bill 2009$) Hot-Humid (bill 2009$) Hot-Dry (bill 2009$) Rest of Cntry (bill 

2009$

Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil

1 13.5 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.01 -0.09 -0.08 -0.01

2 14.0 0.08 0.06 0.02 0.26 0.22 0.04 0.18 0.16 0.03 -0.36 -0.31 -0.04

3 14.5 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.41 0.35 0.06 0.30 0.25 0.04 -0.64 -0.56 -0.08

4 15.0 -13.02 -13.02 0.00 -3.08 -3.16 0.08 -2.11 -2.17 0.05 -7.83 -7.70 -0.13

5 15.5 -26.59 -26.55 -0.03 -6.66 -6.75 0.09 -4.63 -4.69 0.06 -15.30 -15.11 -0.19

6 16.0 -31.35 -31.25 -0.09 -7.52 -7.62 0.10 -5.15 -5.22 0.07 -18.68 -18.42 -0.26

7 16.5 -33.26 -33.08 -0.18 -7.92 -8.02 0.09 -5.40 -5.47 0.07 -19.94 -19.60 -0.34

8 17.0 -34.75 -34.47 -0.29 -8.25 -8.33 0.08 -5.61 -5.68 0.06 -20.89 -20.46 -0.43

9 18.0 -36.65 -36.06 -0.59 -8.64 -8.68 0.04 -5.88 -5.92 0.04 -22.13 -21.45 -0.67

10 19.0 -37.68 -36.78 -0.90 -8.86 -8.83 -0.02 -6.03 -6.03 0.00 -22.80 -21.92 -0.88

11 20.0 -38.89 -37.62 -1.27 -9.13 -9.03 -0.10 -6.21 -6.16 -0.05 -23.55 -22.43 -1.11

12 21.0 -40.24 -38.57 -1.67 -9.47 -9.26 -0.20 -6.45 -6.33 -0.12 -24.33 -22.98 -1.35

13 22.0 -41.49 -39.50 -2.00 -9.80 -9.51 -0.28 -6.69 -6.52 -0.18 -25.00 -23.47 -1.53

14 23.0 -41.87 -39.79 -2.08 -9.91 -9.60 -0.31 -6.79 -6.60 -0.20 -25.17 -23.60 -1.57

15 24.5 -42.17 -40.02 -2.14 -10.00 -9.67 -0.33 -6.87 -6.66 -0.22 -25.29 -23.69 -1.60

Central Air Conditioners—Single Package

Table 10.5.14 shows the NPVs at a three percent and seven percent real discount rate for 

the CSLs analyzed for single package central air conditioners.
10-103

Table 10.5.14 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative 

National NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL SEER

Nation

(bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 13.5 -0.06 -0.07

2 14.0 -0.19 -0.18

3 14.5 -0.57 -0.45

4 15.0 -1.06 -0.78

5 15.5 -1.59 -1.13

6 16.0 -2.16 -1.51

7 16.5 -2.73 -1.92

10.5.5.2 Heat Pumps

The following sections provide the results of calculating net present value (NPV) based 

on a discount rate of seven percent for the candidate standard levels DOE analyzed for the two 

product classes of heat pumps, split system and single package. 

Heat Pumps—Split System

Table 10.5.15 shows the NPVs for the CSLs analyzed for split system heat pumps for the 

Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the 

hot-humid, hot-dry, and rest of the Nation). 
10-104

Table 10.5.15 Split System Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional 

NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector 

CSLSEER HSPF

Nation

(bill 2009$)

Hot-Humid

(bill 2009$)

Hot-Dry

(bill 2009$)

Rest of Country

(bill 2009$)

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

1 13.5 8.1 0.32 0.10 0.24 0.07 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00

2 14.0 8.3 1.55 0.45 1.15 0.34 0.39 0.13 0.01 -0.03

3 14.5 8.4 2.86 0.79 2.13 0.61 0.74 0.25 -0.01 -0.07

4 15.0 8.5 4.12 1.06 3.09 0.83 1.10 0.37 -0.07 -0.15

5 15.5 8.6 5.27 1.24 3.95 0.99 1.45 0.47 -0.13 -0.22

6 16.0 8.7 6.72 1.36 5.06 1.12 1.94 0.60 -0.27 -0.36

7 16.5 8.8 7.78 1.46 5.88 1.22 2.30 0.71 -0.39 -0.47

8 17.0 9.0 8.61 1.46 6.53 1.26 2.63 0.80 -0.55 -0.59

9 18.0 9.2 9.67 1.19 7.45 1.15 3.20 0.94 -0.98 -0.90

10 19.0 9.4 9.91 0.78 7.72 0.91 3.56 1.01 -1.37 -1.14

11 20.0 9.7 9.58 0.13 7.59 0.52 3.77 1.02 -1.78 -1.41

12 21.0 9.9 9.12 -0.44 7.35 0.17 3.82 1.00 -2.05 -1.61

13 22.0 9.9 9.05 -0.53 7.32 0.13 3.82 0.99 -2.09 -1.65

Heat Pumps—Single Package

Table 10.5.16 shows the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed 

for single package heat pumps. 

Table 10.5.16 Single Package Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and 

Regional NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL SEER HSPF

Nation

(bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 13.5 7.9 0.00 -0.01

2 14.0 8.1 -0.04 -0.07

3 14.5 8.3 -0.20 -0.22

4 15.0 8.4 -0.38 -0.22

5 15.5 8.6 -0.75 -0.63

6 16.0 8.8 -1.14 -0.93

7 16.5 9.0 -1.33 -1.09

10.5.5.3 Furnaces

This section provides NPV results for the efficiency levels considered for nonweatherized gas furnaces, mobile home furnaces, and oil furnaces. 
10-105

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces

Table 10.5.17 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for non-weatherized gas 

furnaces for the North and South region.

Table 10.5.17 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the 

Residential Sector

CSL AFUE

Nation

(bill 2009$)

North

(bill 2009$)

South

(bill 2009$)

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

1 90% 16.72 2.78 9.45 2.35 7.27 0.43

2 92% 18.12 3.00 10.04 2.46 8.08 0.54

3 95% 19.36 2.43 10.98 2.27 8.38 0.15

4 98% 15.77 -0.69 10.29 1.33 5.48 -2.02

Mobile Home Furnaces

Table 10.5.18 shows the NPV for the CSLs analyzed for mobile home furnaces for the 

North and South region. 

Table 10.5.18 Mobile Home Furnaces: NPV Results for the Residential Sector

CSL AFUE

Nation

(bill 2009$)

North

(bill 2009$)

South

(bill 2009$)

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

1 90% 1.79 0.49 1.12 0.32 0.67 0.17

2 92% 1.96 0.48 1.24 0.33 0.71 0.15

3 96% 2.38 0.55 1.53 0.40 0.85 0.16

Oil Furnaces

Table 10.5.19 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for non-weatherized gas 

furnaces for the North and South region. 
10-106

Table 10.5.19 Oil Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the Residential Sector

CSL AFUE

Nation

(bill 2009$)

North

(bill 2009$)

South

(bill 2009$)

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

1 83% 0.12 0.04 0.10 0.03 0.02 0.01

2 84% 0.31 0.09 0.27 0.08 0.04 0.01

3 85% 0.52 0.14 0.45 0.13 0.07 0.02

4 97% 1.81 0.35 1.61 0.32 0.20 0.03

10.5.6 Net Present Value Results by Candidate Standard Level – Standby and Off-Mode

The following sections provide results of calculating the standby and off-mode net 

present value (NPV) for each candidate standard level considered for central air conditioners, 

heat pumps, and furnaces. Results, which are cumulative, are shown as the discounted dollar 

value of the savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted-average values, 

yielding results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values such as 

produced by the life-cycle cost and payback period analyses.

10.5.6.1 Central Air Conditioners

Table 10.5.20 and Table 10.5.21 show the off-mode NPVs at a three percent and seven 

percent real discount rate, respectively for the CSLs analyzed for central air conditioners for the

residential and commercial sector.

Table 10.5.20 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off-Mode NPV Results 

(3% Discount Rate)

CSL

Off-Mode

(Watts)

Split System CAC Single Package 

Coil Only Blower Coil CAC

NPV

(bill 2009$)

NPV

(bill 2009$)

NPV

(bill 2009$)

1 36 0.64 0.07 0.06

2 30 0.64 0.08 0.07

3 29 0.64 0.08 0.07
10-107

Table 10.5.21 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off-Mode NPV Results, 

Residential and Commercial Sector (7% Discount Rate)

CSL

Off-Mode

(Watts)

Split System CAC Single Package 

Coil Only Blower Coil CAC

NPV

(bill 2009$)

NPV

(bill 2009$)

NPV

(bill 2009$)

1 36 0.24 0.03 0.02

2 30 0.24 0.02 0.02

3 29 0.24 0.02 0.02

10.5.6.2 Heat Pumps

Table 10.5.22 shows the off-mode NPVs at a three percent and seven percent real 

discount rate for the CSLs analyzed for heat pumps for the residential and commercial sector.

Table 10.5.22 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV 

Results, Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL

Split System HP

(bill 2009$)

Single Package HP

(bill 2009$)

Off-Mode

(Watts)

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

Off-Mode

(Watts)

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

1 33 0.201 0.065 33 0.025 0.008

2 32 0.078 -0.002 32 0.010 0.000

10.5.6.3 Furnaces

Table 10.5.23 shows the NPVs at a three percent and seven percent real discount rate for 

the CSLs analyzed for furnaces. 

Table 10.5.23 Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the Residential Sector

CSL

Non-Weatherized Gas 

Furnaces

(bill 2009$)

Mobile Home Furnaces

(bill 2009$)

Oil Furnaces

(bill 2009$)

OffMode

(Watts)

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

OffMode

(Watts)

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

OffMode

(Watts)

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

1 10 0.167 0.028 10 0.001 0.000 11 0.002 0.000

2 9 0.138 -0.030 9 -0.001 -0.002 10 0.002 0.000
10-108

10.5.7 NES and NPV Results by Trial Standard Level 

10.5.7.1 Trial Standard Levels for Energy Efficiency

In considering amended standards, DOE created trial standard levels (TSLs) that combine 

specific efficiency levels across product classes. DOE analyzed the benefits and burdens of a 

number of TSLs for the products considered in this rulemaking. A description of each TSL DOE 

analyzed is provided below. DOE attempted to limit the number of TSLs considered by 

excluding efficiency levels that do not exhibit significantly different economic and/or 

engineering characteristics from the efficiency levels already selected as a TSL.

Table 10.5.24 shows the TSLs DOE analyzed for furnaces and central air conditioners 

and heat pumps. In the table SAC means split system central air conditioners, SHP means split 

system heat pumps, PAC means single package central air conditioners, PHP means single 

package heat pumps, SDHV means small duct high velocity systems, NWGF means nonweatherized gas furnaces, OF means oil furnaces, and MHF means mobile home furnaces.

TSL 7 consists of the max-tech efficiency levels. For split-system central air conditioners 

and heat pumps, max-tech levels vary by capacity (tonnage) and, in the case of air conditioners, 

the type of unit (i.e., coil-only or blower-coil). Specifically, for split-system central air 

conditioners, the max-tech level of 22 SEER pertains only to 3-ton blower-coil units. The maxtech levels for the other tonnages and unit types are: 24.5 SEER for 2-ton, blower-coil; 18 SEER 

for 5-ton, blower-coil and 2-ton, coil-only; 17 SEER for 3-ton, coil-only; and 16 SEER for 5-ton, 

coil-only. For split-system heat pumps, the max-tech level of 20 SEER / 9.9 HSPF pertains only 

to 3-ton units. The max-tech levels for the other tonnages are: 22 SEER / 9.9 HSPF for 2-ton; 

and 17 SEER / 9.0 HSPF for 5-ton.

TSL 6 consists of a cooling efficiency level of 15 SEER for all central air conditioner and 

heat pump product classes with the exception of specifying a cooling efficiency level of 14 

SEER for split-system central air conditioners in the “rest of country” region (i.e., the North) and 

SDHV systems. For furnaces, TSL 6 consists of efficiency levels for each product class which 

are one level below the max-tech level. 

TSL 5 consists of cooling efficiency levels for each central air conditioner and heat pump

product class which are one level below the efficiencies in TSL 6. This corresponds to a cooling 

efficiency level of 14 SEER for all product classes with the exception of specifying a cooling 

efficiency at the baseline level (13 SEER) for split-system central air conditioners in the “rest of 

country” region (i.e., the North) and SDHV systems. For furnaces, TSL 5 consists of the same 

efficiency levels as TSL 6 (i.e., each product class has an efficiency level which is one level 

below the max-tech level). 

TSL 4 consists of the efficiency levels included in the consensus agreement, including 

accelerated compliance dates (i.e., by 3 years for furnaces and 1.5 years for central air 

conditioners and heat pumps) and requirements for a second metric (EER) applicable to split-
10-109

system air conditioners and packaged air conditioners in the hot-dry region. For SDHV systems, 

TSL 4 consists of the baseline efficiency level.

TSL 3 consists of the same efficiency levels as specified in TSL 4, except with a lead 

time for compliance of five years after the final rule publication, and no EER requirements for 

split system air conditioners and packaged air conditioners in the hot-dry region. TSL 2 consists 

of the efficiency levels within each region that correspond to those products which currently 

have the largest market share. TSL 1 refers to a single national standard and consists of the 

efficiency levels in each product class with the largest market share. For SDHV systems, TSLs 1, 

2, and 3 consist of the baseline efficiency level.
10-110

Table 10.5.24 Trial Standard Levels for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps and 

Furnaces (Energy Efficiency)

SAC SHP PAC PHP SDHV NWGF OF MHF

TSL Region Applicable SEER SEER/HSPF SEER SEER/HSPF SEER/HSPF AFUE AFUE AFUE

7

Rest of Country* 22** 20 / 9.9† 16.5 16.5 / 9.0 14.5 / 8.6 98% 97% 96%

North (Furnace) 98% 96%

Hot Humid (CAC-HP) 22** 20 / 9.9† 16.5 16.5 / 9.0 14.5 / 8.6

Hot Dry (CAC-HP) 22** 20 / 9.9† 16.5 16.5 / 9.0 14.5 / 8.6

6

Rest of Country* 14 15 / 8.5 15 15 / 8.4 14 / 8.5 80% 85% 80%

North (Furnace) 95% 96%

Hot Humid (CAC-HP) 15 15 / 8.5 15 15 / 8.4 14 / 8.5

Hot Dry (CAC-HP) 15 15 / 8.5 15 15 / 8.4 14 / 8.5

5

Rest of Country* 13 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7 80% 85% 80%

North (Furnace) 95% 96%

Hot Humid (CAC-HP) 14 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7

Hot Dry (CAC-HP) 14 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7

4††

Rest of Country* 13 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7 80% 83% 80%

North (Furnace) 90% 90%

Hot Humid (CAC-HP) 14 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7

Hot Dry (CAC-HP)

14 /

12.2 & 

11.7 EER

14 / 8.2 14 /

11 EER 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7

3

Rest of Country* 13 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7 80% 83% 80%

North (Furnace) 90% 90%

Hot Humid (CAC-HP) 14 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7

Hot Dry (CAC-HP) 14 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7

2

Rest of Country* 13.5 13.5 / 8.1 13 13 / 7.7 13 / 7.7 80% 82% 80%

North (Furnace) 92% 80%

Hot Humid (CAC-HP) 13.5‡ 13.5 / 8.1‡ 13‡ 13 / 7.7‡ 13 / 7.7

Hot Dry (CAC-HP) 13.5‡ 13.5 / 8.1‡ 13‡ 13 / 7.7‡ 13 / 7.7

1 Nation 13.5 13.5 / 8.1 13 13 / 7.7 13 / 7.7 80% 82% 80%

*The values presented under “Rest of Country” are the national standards, but they effectively apply to those States 

not subject to regional standards. Rest of Country refers to the Northern region for air conditioners and heat pumps 

and to the Southern region for NWGF and MHF. For OF, the value refers to the entire Nation.

** Max-tech of 22 SEER pertains to 3-ton blower-coil units only, which is the most common cooling capacity of 

products on the market. Max-tech efficiencies vary by tonnage and type. See chapter 5 of the TSD for more 

information on the max-tech efficiency levels.

† Max- tech of 20 SEER / 9.9 HSPF pertains to 3-ton units only, which is the most common cooling capacity of 

products on the market. Max-tech efficiencies vary by tonnage. See chapter 5 of the TSD for more information on 

the max-tech efficiency levels.

†† Compliance date is 1/1/2015 for central air conditioners and heat pumps and 5/1/2013 for furnaces. For SAC, TSL 

4 has separate EER levels based on capacity (see section III.B.2).

‡ Largest market share unknown; assumed to be equal to the market share for entire Nation.

In estimating national energy savings and the NPV of consumer benefits, for TSLs 2, 3, 

and 4, DOE calculated a range of results that reflect alternative assumptions with respect to how 

the market for non-weatherized and mobile home furnaces will respond to a standard at 90-

percent or 92-percent AFUE. DOE believes that the response of the market to a standard at either 

of these efficiency levels is sufficiently uncertain that it is reasonable to use a range to represent 
10-111

the expected impacts. The low end of the range reflects the approach to forecasting standardscase efficiency distributions described above. With this approach, the part of the market that was 

below the amended standard level rolls up to the amended standard level in the year of 

compliance, and some fraction of shipments remains above the minimum. The high end of the 

range reflects the possibility that, under an amended standard that requires a minimum AFUE of 

90 percent or 92 percent, the entire market will shift to 95 percent because the additional 

installed cost, relative to 90-percent or 92-percent AFUE, is minimal. In both cases, the approach 

to forecasting the change in efficiency in the years after the year of compliance is the same. 

Results reported below at TSLs 2a, 3a, and 4a represent the low end of the range for forecasting 

standards-case efficiency distributions while TSLs 2b, 3b, and 4b represent the high end of the 

range for forecasting standards-case efficiency distributions,

10.5.7.2 Trial Standard Levels for Standby and Off-Mode Power

Table 10.5.25 presents the TSLs and the corresponding product class efficiency levels 

(expressed in watts) that DOE considered for furnace, central air conditioner, and heat pump 

standby mode and off mode power consumption. For the central air conditioner product classes, 

DOE considered three efficiency levels, while for the heat pump and furnace product classes, 

two efficiency levels were considered. 

TSL 3 consists of the max-tech efficiency levels. For the central air conditioner product 

classes, the max-tech level is efficiency level 3, which specifies a maximum off mode power 

consumption of 29 watts. For the heat pump and furnace product classes, the max-tech level is 

efficiency level 2, which specifies a maximum standby mode and off mode power consumption 

of 9 watts for gas furnaces and 10 watts for oil furnaces, and a maximum off mode power 

consumption of 32 watts for heat pumps.

TSL 2 represents the efficiency level from each product class that is just below the maxtech efficiency level. TSL 2 consists of efficiency level 2 for the central air conditioner product 

classes, which specifies a maximum off mode power consumption of 30 watts. For the heat 

pump and furnace product classes, TSL 2 consists of efficiency level 1, which specifies a 

maximum standby mode and off mode power consumption of 10 watts for gas furnaces and 11 

watts for oil furnaces, and a maximum off mode power consumption of 33 watts for heat pumps. 

TSL 1 consists of efficiency level 1 for all product classes. TSL 1 consists of efficiency 

level 1 for the central air conditioner product classes, which specifies a maximum off mode 

power consumption of 36 watts. For the heat pump and furnace product classes, it consists of 

efficiency level 1, which specifies a maximum standby mode and off mode power consumption 

of 10 watts for gas furnaces and 11 watts for oil furnaces, and a maximum off mode power 

consumption of 33 watts for heat pumps. Because the heat pump and furnace product classes 

have only two considered efficiency levels, TSL 1 for these classes is no different than TSL 2. 
10-112

Table 10.5.25 Trial Standard Levels for Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps, and 

Furnaces (Standby Mode and Off Mode Power)

TSL SCAC SHP PAC PHP SDHV NWGF OF MHF

Efficiency Level (Watts)

3 29 32 29 32 29 9 10 9

2 30 33 30 33 30 10 11 10

1 36 33 36 33 36 10 11 10

10.5.7.3 NES Results by Trial Standard Level - Efficiency

The following section presents the cumulative national energy savings in 2016-2045

associated with standards at the considered TSLs for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and 

furnaces.

Central Air Conditioners—Split System

Table 10.5.26 shows the national energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for split system 

central air conditioners for the residential and commercial sector. The shows the breakdown of 

the NES for coil-only units and blower coil units. 

Table 10.5.26 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NES Results 

from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector 

TSL

Nation (quads) Hot-Humid (quads) Hot-Dry (quads) Rest of Cntry (quads)

Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil

1 0.090 0.071 0.019 - - - - - - - - -

2a - - - 0.045 0.036 0.009 0.013 0.010 0.003 0.022 0.017 0.005

2b - - - 0.045 0.036 0.009 0.013 0.010 0.003 0.022 0.017 0.005

3a - - - 0.191 0.155 0.036 0.055 0.045 0.010 -0.002 -0.002 0.000

3b - - - 0.191 0.155 0.036 0.055 0.045 0.010 -0.002 -0.002 0.000

4a - - - 0.218 0.181 0.038 0.063 0.052 0.011 -0.002 -0.002 0.000

4b - - - 0.218 0.181 0.038 0.063 0.052 0.011 -0.002 -0.002 0.000

5 - - - 0.191 0.155 0.036 0.055 0.045 0.010 -0.002 -0.002 0.000

6 - - - 0.863 0.776 0.088 0.250 0.225 0.026 0.095 0.076 0.019

7 - - - 3.327 2.919 0.408 0.965 0.848 0.117 1.714 1.510 0.204

Central Air Conditioners—Single Package

Table 10.5.27 shows the national energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for single 

package central air conditioners for the residential and commercial sector. 
10-113

Table 10.5.27 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy 

Savings Results from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

TSL Nation (quads)

1 0.000

2a 0.000

2b 0.000

3a 0.112

3b 0.112

4a 0.121

4b 0.121

5 0.112

6 0.267

7 0.385

Split System Heat Pumps

Table 10.5.28 shows the national energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for split system 

heat pumps for the residential and commercial sector. 

Table 10.5.28 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results 

from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

TSL Nation (quads) Hot-Humid (quads) Hot-Dry(quads) Rest of Country(quads)

1 0.088 - - -

2a - 0.059 0.008 0.009

2b - 0.059 0.008 0.009

3a - 0.294 0.042 0.051

3b - 0.294 0.042 0.051

4a - 0.309 0.044 0.054

4b - 0.310 0.044 0.053

5 - 0.294 0.042 0.051

6 - 0.882 0.125 0.140

7 - 3.978 0.584 0.636

Heat Pumps—Single Package

Table 10.5.29 shows the national energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for single 

package heat pumps for the residential and commercial sector. 
10-114

Table 10.5.29 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National Energy Savings 

Results from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector 

TSL Nation(quads)

1 0.000

2a 0.000

2b 0.000

3a 0.064

3b 0.064

4a 0.069

4b 0.069

5 0.064

6 0.205

7 0.323

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces

Table 10.5.30 shows the national and regional energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for 

non-weatherized gas furnaces. 

Table 10.5.30 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Cumulative National Energy Savings

Results from 2016-2045 for the Residential Sector

TSL Nation (quads) North (quads) South(quads)

1 0.00 - -

2a - 2.16 0.00

2b - 2.76 0.00

3a - 1.98 0.00

3b - 2.76 0.00

4a - 2.12 0.00

4b - 3.04 0.00

5 - 2.76 0.00

6 - 2.76 0.00

7 - 3.05 3.40

Mobile Home Furnaces

Table 10.5.31 shows the national and regional energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for 

mobile home furnaces.
10-115

Table 10.5.31 Mobile Home Furnaces: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results 

from 2016-2045 for the Residential Sector

TSL Nation (quads) North (quads) South(quads)

1 0.00 - -

2a - 0.00 0.00

2b - 0.00 0.00

3a - 0.18 0.00

3b - 0.27 0.00

4a - 0.19 0.00

4b - 0.30 0.00

5 - 0.27 0.00

6 - 0.27 0.00

7 - 0.27 0.16

Oil Furnaces

Table 10.5.32 shows the national and regional energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for 

oil furnaces.

Table 10.5.32 Oil Furnaces: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results from 2016-

2045 for the Residential Sector

TSL Nation (quads) North (quads) South(quads)

1 0.00 - -

2a - 0.00 0.00

2b - 0.00 0.00

3a - 0.01 0.00

3b - 0.01 0.00

4a - 0.01 0.00

4b - 0.01 0.00

5 - 0.05 0.01

6 - 0.05 0.01

7 - 0.34 0.05

10.5.7.4 NES Results by Trial Standard Level – Standby and Off-Mode 

The following section presents the standby and off-mode national energy savings 

associated with the standards at the considered TSLs for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and 

furnaces.
10-116

Central Air Conditioners

Table 10.5.33 shows the off-mode energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for central air 

conditioners for the residential and commercial sectors. The table shows the breakdown of 

energy savings for coil-only units and blower coil units for split system central air conditioners. 

Table 10.5.33 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Off-Mode National Energy 

Savings from 2016-2045, Residential and Commercial Sector 

TSL

Split System CAC (quads) Single Package CAC 

Coil Only Blower Coil (quads)

1 0.066 0.007 0.007

2 0.066 0.007 0.007

3 0.066 0.007 0.007

Heat Pumps 

Table 10.5.34 shows the off-mode energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for heat pumps 

for the residential and commercial sectors. 

Table 10.5.34 Heat Pumps: Cumulative Off-Mode National Energy Savings from 2016-

2045

TSL Split System HP (quads) Single Package HP (quads)

1 0.030 0.004

2 0.030 0.004

3 0.030 0.004

Furnaces

Table 10.5.35 shows the standby and off-model energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for 

furnaces.

Table 10.5.35 Furnaces: Cumulative Standby and Off-Mode National Energy Savings 

from 2016-2045

TSL

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces 

(quads)

Mobile Home Furnaces 

(quads)

Oil Furnaces 

(quads)

1 0.04 0.00 0.00

2 0.04 0.00 0.00

3 0.04 0.00 0.00

10.5.7.5 NPV Results by Trial Standard Level - Efficiency

The following section presents the consumer net present value associated with standards 

at the considered TSLs for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces.
10-117

Central Air Conditioners—Split System

Table 10.5.36 and Table 10.5.37 show the NPV for the TSLs analyzed for split system 

central air conditioners for the residential and commercial sector using a three percent and seven 

percent real discount rate, respectively. The tables show the breakdown for coil-only units and 

blower coil units. 

Table 10.5.36 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NPV Results 

(3% Discount Rate)

TSL

Nation (bill 2009$) Hot-Humid (bill 2009$) Hot-Dry (bill 2009$) Rest of Cntry (bill 2009$

Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil

1 0.39 0.32 0.07 - - - - - - - - -

2a - - - 0.20 0.16 0.03 0.14 0.12 0.02 -0.08 -0.07 -0.01

2b - - - 0.20 0.16 0.03 0.14 0.12 0.02 -0.08 -0.07 -0.01

3a - - - 0.76 0.63 0.13 0.53 0.45 0.09 -0.13 -0.13 0.00

3b - - - 0.76 0.63 0.13 0.53 0.45 0.09 -0.13 -0.13 0.00

4a - - - 0.89 0.75 0.14 0.63 0.53 0.10 -0.14 -0.14 0.00

4b - - - 0.90 0.76 0.14 0.63 0.53 0.10 -0.12 -0.12 0.00

5 - - - 0.76 0.63 0.13 0.53 0.45 0.09 -0.13 -0.13 0.00

6 - - - -4.25 -4.54 0.29 -2.99 -3.19 0.20 -0.49 -0.44 -0.05

7 - - - -14.20 -14.22 0.03 -9.83 -9.86 0.03 -46.76 -43.98 -2.78

Table 10.5.37 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NPV Results 

(7% Discount Rate)

TSL

Nation (bill 2009$) Hot-Humid (bill 2009$) Hot-Dry (bill 2009$) Rest of Cntry (bill 2009$

Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil Total

CoilOnlyBlower 

Coil

1 0.12 0.10 0.02 - - - - - - - - -

2a - - - 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.01 -0.09 -0.08 -0.01

2b - - - 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.01 -0.09 -0.08 -0.01

3a - - - 0.26 0.22 0.04 0.18 0.16 0.03 -0.05 -0.05 0.00

3b - - - 0.26 0.22 0.04 0.18 0.16 0.03 -0.05 -0.05 0.00

4a - - - 0.32 0.27 0.04 0.23 0.20 0.03 -0.06 -0.06 0.00

4b - - - 0.31 0.27 0.04 0.23 0.20 0.03 -0.05 -0.05 0.00

5 - - - 0.26 0.22 0.04 0.18 0.16 0.03 -0.05 -0.05 0.00

6 - - - -2.93 -3.01 0.08 -2.03 -2.08 0.05 -0.41 -0.37 -0.04

7 - - - -10.00 -9.67 -0.33 -6.87 -6.66 -0.22 -25.29 -23.69 -1.60
10-118

Central Air Conditioners—Single Package

Table 10.5.38 and Table 5.3.39 show the NPV for the TSLs analyzed for single package 

central air conditioners for the residential and commercial sector. 

Table 10.5.38 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NPV

Results, Residential and Commercial Sector*

TSL

Nation

(bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 0.00 0.00

2a 0.00 0.00

2b 0.00 0.00

3a -0.19 -0.18

3b -0.19 -0.18

4a -0.17 -0.19

4b -0.17 -0.19

5 -0.19 -0.18

6 -1.03 -0.76

7 -2.73 -1.92

* Figures do not include either the benefits from the standby power requirement or the monetized value of emissions 

reductions.

Table 10.5.39 Single Package Central Air Conditioners Sum of Net Benefits: 

Cumulative National NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector 

with Present Value of Monetized Emissions and Standby and Off-Mode 

Net Benefits*

TSL

Nation**

(bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 0.09 0.02

2a 0.09 0.02

2b 0.09 0.02

3a 0.03 -0.07

3b 0.03 -0.07

4a 0.00 -0.07

4b 0.00 -0.07

5 -0.04 -0.08

6 -0.70 -0.49

7 -2.50 -1.74

* The economic benefits from reduced CO2 emissions were calculated using a SCC value of $22.1/metric ton in 

2010 (in 2009$) for CO2, increasing at 3% per year, and a discount rate of 3%. The economic benefits from reduced 

NOX emissions were calculated using a value of $2,519/ton (in 2009$), which is the average of the low and high 
10-119

values used in DOE’s analysis, and 3- and 7-percent discount rate. Standby and off-mode benefits are calculated for 

the standby and off-mode TSL2.

** Figures are the combination of the efficiency TSL NPVs, the standby and off-mode power NPV, and the present 

value of monetized emission reductions resulting from the TSLs. The combination of cumulative national NPV with 

the present value of the monetized emission reductions demonstrate the full economic impact of issuing efficiency 

and standby/off-mode standards on single package central air conditioners. When all benefits are included, the NPV 

of the standard is positive or non-negative at 3 percent discount rate for TSLs 1 through 4b. Because DOE used 

conservative analysis assumptions for post-standards trends, DOE believes that the net benefits from standards are 

likely to be even more positive than what is presented in table. The present value of emission reductions are 

presented fully in Chapter 16.
10-120

Heat Pumps—Split System

Table 10.5.40 shows the NPV for the TSLs analyzed for split system heat pumps for the 

residential and commercial sector. 

Table 10.5.40 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National NPV Results 

TSL

Nation

(bill 2009$)

Hot-Humid

(bill 2009$)

Hot-Dry

(bill 2009$)

Rest of Country

(bill 2009$)

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

1 0.38 0.11 - - - - - -

2a - - 0.24 0.07 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00

2b - - 0.24 0.07 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00

3a - - 1.15 0.34 0.39 0.13 0.20 0.05

3b - - 1.15 0.34 0.39 0.13 0.20 0.05

4a - - 1.23 0.38 0.42 0.15 0.22 0.05

4b - - 1.24 0.38 0.42 0.15 0.20 0.04

5 - - 1.15 0.34 0.39 0.13 0.20 0.05

6 - - 3.11 0.85 1.11 0.37 0.13 -0.06

7 - - 7.32 0.13 3.82 0.99 -2.09 -1.65
10-121

Heat Pumps—Single Package

Table 10.5.41 and Table 10.5.42 show the NPV for the TSLs analyzed for single package 

heat pumps for the residential and commercial sector. 

Table 10.5.41 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National NPV Results* 

TSL

Nation

(bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 0.00 0.00

2a 0.00 0.00

2b 0.00 0.00

3a -0.03 -0.06

3b -0.03 -0.06

4a -0.01 -0.06

4b -0.01 -0.06

5 -0.03 -0.06

6 -0.42 -0.39

7 -1.33 -1.09

* Figures do not include either the benefits from the standby power requirement or the monetized value of emissions 

reductions.
10-122

Table 10.5.42 Single Package Heat Pumps Sum of Net Benefits:: Cumulative National 

NPV Results with Present Value of Monetized Emissions and Standby 

and Off-mode Net Benefits*

TSL

Nation**

(bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 0.04 0.02

2a 0.04 0.02

2b 0.04 0.02

3a 0.05 0.00

3b 0.05 0.00

4a 0.07 0.00

4b 0.07 0.00

5 0.05 -0.01

6 -0.20 -0.19

7 -1.17 -0.95

* The economic benefits from reduced CO2 emissions were calculated using a SCC value of $22.1/metric ton in 

2010 (in 2009$) for CO2, increasing at 3% per year, and a discount rate of 3%. The economic benefits from reduced 

NOX emissions were calculated using a value of $2,519/ton (in 2009$), which is the average of the low and high 

values used in DOE’s analysis, and 3- and 7-percent discount rate. Standby and off-mode benefits are calculated for 

the standby and off-mode TSL2.

** Figures are the combination of the efficiency TSL NPVs, the standby and off-mode power NPV, and the present 

value of monetized emission reductions resulting from the TSLs. The combination of cumulative national NPV with 

the present value of the monetized emission reductions demonstrate the full potential economic impact of issuing 

efficiency and standby/off-mode standards on single-package heat pumps. When all benefits are included, the NPV 

of the standard is positive at 3 percent discount rate for TSLs 1 through 5 and non-negative at 7 percent discount rate 

forTSLs 1 through 4b. Because DOE used conservative analysis assumptions for post-standards trends, DOE 

believes that the net benefits from standards are likely to be even more positive than what is presented in table. The 

present value of emission reductions are presented fully in Chapter 16.

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces

Table 10.5.43 shows the NPV for the TSLs analyzed for non-weatherized gas furnaces 

for the North and South region. 
10-123

Table 10.5.43 Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Discounted Regional NPV Results for 

the Residential Sector

TSL

Nation

(bill 2009$)

South

(bill 2009$)

North

(bill 2009$)

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

1 0.00 0.00 - - - -

2a - - 0.00 0.00 10.04 2.46

2b - - 0.00 0.00 10.98 2.27

3a - - 0.00 0.00 9.45 2.35

3b - - 0.00 0.00 10.98 2.27

4a - - 0.00 0.00 10.29 2.68

4b - - 0.00 0.00 12.62 2.88

5 - - 0.00 0.00 10.98 2.27

6 - - 0.00 0.00 10.98 2.27

7 - - 5.89 -1.72 10.54 1.50

Mobile Home Furnaces

Table 10.5.44 shows the NPV for the TSLs analyzed for mobile home furnaces for the 

North and South region. 

Table 10.5.44 Mobile Home Furnaces: Discounted Regional NPV Results for the 

Residential Sector

TSL

Nation

(bill 2009$)

South

(bill 2009$)

North

(bill 2009$)

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

1 0.00 0.00 - - - -

2a - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2b - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3a - - 0.00 0.00 1.12 0.32

3b - - 0.00 0.00 1.53 0.40

4a - - 0.00 0.00 1.24 0.38

4b - - 0.00 0.00 1.72 0.46

5 - - 0.00 0.00 1.53 0.40

6 - - 0.00 0.00 1.53 0.40

7 - - 0.85 0.16 1.53 0.40

Oil Furnaces

Table 10.5.45 shows the NPV for the TSLs analyzed for oil furnaces for the North and 

South region. 
10-124

Table 10.5.45 Oil Furnaces: Discounted Regional NPV Results for the Residential 

Sector

TSL

Nation

(bill 2009$)

South

(bill 2009$)

North

(bill 2009$)

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

3% Discount 

Rate

7% Discount 

Rate

1 0.00 0.00 - - - -

2a - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2b - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3a - - 0.02 0.01 0.10 0.03

3b - - 0.02 0.01 0.10 0.03

4a - - 0.02 0.01 0.12 0.04

4b - - 0.02 0.01 0.12 0.04

5 - - 0.07 0.02 0.45 0.13

6 - - 0.07 0.02 0.45 0.13

7 - - 0.21 0.03 1.65 0.37

10.5.7.6 NPV Results by Trial Standard Level – Standby and Off-Mode

The following section presents the consumer net present value associated with standby 

and off-mode standards at the considered TSLs for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and 

furnaces.

Central Air Conditioners

Table 10.5.46 and Table 10.5.47 show the off-mode NPVs at a three percent and seven 

percent real discount rate, respectively for the TSLs analyzed for central air conditioners for the 

residential and commercial sector. 

Table 10.5.46 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off-Mode NPV Results, 

Residential and Commercial Sector (3% Discount Rate)

TSL

Split System CAC (bill 2009$) Single Package CAC (bill 

Coil Only Blower Coil 2009$)

1 0.64 0.07 0.06

2 0.64 0.08 0.07

3 0.64 0.08 0.07
10-125

Table 10.5.47 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off-Mode NPV Results, 

Residential and Commercial Sector (7% Discount Rate)

TSL

Split System CAC (bill 2009$) Single Package CAC 

Coil Only Blower Coil (bill 2009$)

1 0.24 0.03 0.02

2 0.24 0.02 0.02

3 0.24 0.02 0.02

Heat Pumps

Table 10.5.48 shows the off-mode NPVs at a three percent and seven percent real 

discount rate for the TSLs analyzed for heat pumps for the residential and commercial sector.

Table 10.5.48 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV 

Results, Residential and Commercial Sector

TSL

Split System HP

(bill 2009$)

Single Package HP

(bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate 3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 0.21 0.07 0.03 0.01

2 0.19 0.06 0.03 0.01

3 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.00

Furnaces

Table 10.5.49 shows the NPVs at a three percent and seven percent real discount rate for 

the TSLs analyzed for furnaces. 

Table 10.5.49 Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the Residential Sector

TSL

Non-Weatherized Gas 

Furnaces

(bill 2009$)

Mobile Home Furnaces

(bill 2009$)

Oil Furnaces

(bill 2009$)

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

3% 

Discount 

Rate

7% 

Discount 

Rate

1 0.17 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2 0.17 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3 0.13 (0.03) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

10.5.7.7 Summary of Results by Trial Standard Level

Table 10.5.50 through Table 10.5.53 show the summary of energy savings and net 

present value results by TSL for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces. Table 

10.5.48 shows the cumulative energy efficiency national energy savings results for all products, 

and Table 10.5.49 shows the cumulative standby and off-mode national energy savings results.

The range of results for TSLs 2, 3, and 4 reflect the approach described in section 10.5.7.

 
10-126

Table 10.5.50 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces: Cumulative 

National Energy Savings for Energy Efficiency TSLs for 2016-2045

TSL Quads

1 0.18

2 2.32 - 2.91

3 2.97 - 3.84

4* 3.20 - 4.22

5 3.89

6 5.91

7 19.18

* For TSL 4, which matches the recommendations in the consensus agreement, DOE forecasted the energy savings 

from 2015 through 2045 for central air conditioners and heat pumps, and from 2013 through 2045 for furnaces.

Table 10.5.51 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces: Cumulative 

National Energy Savings for Standby Mode and Off Mode Power TSLs 

for 2016-2045

TSL Quads

1 0.153

2 0.159

3 0.186

Table 10.5.52 shows the cumulative energy efficiency net present value results for all 

products, and Table 10.5.53 shows the cumulative standby and off-mode net present value 

results. 

Table 10.5.52 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces: Cumulative Net 

Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Energy Efficiency TSLs 

TSL

3-percent Discount Rate 7-percent Discount Rate

Billion 2009$

1 0.76 0.23

2 10.61 - 11.56 2.60 - 2.41

3 13.35 - 15.29 3.36 - 3.36

4* 14.73 - 17.55 3.93 - 4.21

5 15.69 3.47

6 8.18 (2.56)

7 (45.12) (44.98)

* For TSL 4, which matches the recommendations in the consensus agreement, DOE forecasted the energy savings 

from 2015 through 2045 for central air conditioners and heat pumps, and from 2013 through 2045 for furnaces.

Parentheses indicate negative (-) values.
10-127

Table 10.5.53 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces: Cumulative Net 

Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Standby Mode and Off Mode 

Power TSLs 

TSL

3-percent Discount Rate 7-percent Discount Rate

Billion 2009$

1 1.139 0.371

2 1.179 0.373

3 1.015 0.235

The NPV results presented in this chapter are based on use of medium learning rates to 

forecast product prices: 18.1% for central air conditioners and heat pumps and 30.6% for 

furnaces, both of which are referred to as the “default” learning rates. DOE also considered three 

learning rate sensitivities: (1) a “high learning” rate; (2) a “low learning” rate; and (3) a “no 

learning” rate. The “high learning” rates are 20.5% for central air conditioners and heat pumps 

and 33.3% for furnaces. The “low learning’ rates are 11.5% for central air conditioners and heat 

pumps and 19.2% for furnaces. The “no learning” rate sensitivity, which is zero percent for all 

products, assumes constant real prices over the entire forecast period.

Appendix 10-C presents NPV results for the default case and each sensitivity case. The 

results in the appendix are annualized and combine the NPV of the consumer savings, calculated 

for each TSL using 3 and 7 percent discount rates, with the present value of the estimated

economic benefits resulting from reduced CO2 and NOX emissions. 
10-128

REFERENCES

 1 Air-Conditioning, Heating and Refrigerator Institute. Historical shipments and shipmentweighted efficiency data submittal. December 2008.

2

 U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2010 with Projections to 2035. March 2010. U.S. DOE–EIA: Washington, D.C. DOE/EIA0383(2010). <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2010).pdf>

3 Office of Management and Budget. OMB Circular A-4, Regulatory Analysis. 2003. OMB: 

Washington, D.C. September 17, 2003. 

<www.whitehouse.gov/omb/assets/omb/circulars/a004/a-4.pdf>