Energy, Security and the 

Environment: From Global 

to Local to Global

Al Sweedler

Environmental Sciences Program

Department of Physics 

San Diego State University

April 2008
Outline

• Global and national energy trends.

• California and San Diego energy system

• SDSU energy research. 

• Conclusions.
People use Energy:

Global energy use closely related to growth of population.
World Energy 1850-2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Year

E

J

/

y

e

a

r

Gas

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro +

Biomass

History of world supply of primary energy: 

continuous growth

Hydro+ means 

hydropower plus 

other renewables 

besides biomass

Energy supply grew 20-fold between 1850 and 2000. Fossil fuels 

supplied 80% of the world’s energy in 2000. From Holdren (2007)
...with carbon-based fuels supplying most of the 

primary energy

Source: IEA

86% from 

C-based fuels

80.3% from

C-based fuels
...and that growth will continue

72% 

increase

from 2003 
...with carbon-based fuels still supplying most of the 

energy.

Source: IEA

80.4% 

carbonbased in 

2010

81.2%

carbonbased in 

2030
Electricity: versatile and rapidly growing. About 1/3 of 

primary energy supply is used to generate electricity

Shares of nuclear, natural gas, & coal growing, those of oil & hydro shrinking. 

USA gets 50% of its electricity from coal, China gets 80% from coal. (Holdren)
Main Issues Associated with Continued 

Growth of Current Energy System

• Environmental.

– air pollution

– global climate change/warming

– water quality and quantity

• Security.

– securing adequate energy supply

– competition for energy resources. 

• Economic development.

– Critical for countries like China, India, Brazil and 

others.
Environmental Issues Associated with Continued Energy Growth:

Global Air Pollution

Source: European Space Agency

Concentration of NO2

18 Months of Observations
Particulate pollution in selected cities

OECD Environmental data 1995; WRI China tables 1995; Central Pollution Control Board, Delhi. 

“Ambient Air Quality Status and Statistics, 1993 and 1994”; Urban Air Pollution in Megacities of the 

World, WHO/UNEP, 1992; EPA, AIRS database.
2005 was the hottest year on record; 

the 13 hottest all occurred since 1990, 

23 out of the 24 hottest since 1980.

J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 (26 Sept 2006)

Green bars show 95% 

confidence intervals

Global Warming: The Earth is getting warmer.

°C
Source: Hansen et al., 

Science 308, 1431, 2005.

...and we know

why.

Current computer model 

with sensitivity ~0.75oC per 

W/m2, using best estimates 

of natural & human 

influences (A) as input, 

reproduces almost 

perfectly the last 125 years 

of observed temperatures 

(B).

Other “fingerprints” of GHG 

influence on climate also 

match observations.
...and what is causing it.

Source: IPCC 2007
...and there are specific consequences 
Energy Security – Oil 

Global Oil Flows
Energy Security:

Liquefied Natural Gas – the New “Oil”??
Problem with Business as Usual

• The problem is not that we won’t have enough 

energy to meet projected demand. 

• The problem is the irreparable harm to the 

global environment that is very likely to result 

from current energy use patterns.

• And the security implications of increasing 

reliance on global energy flows. 
Let’s take closer look at U.S. 
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from US Energy System
Side Note:

Oil Reality for the U.S.

• U.S. consumes 26% of world’s oil.

• U.S. imports 66% of its oil. By 2020, we will be importing 

close to 75% !!

• U.S. will spend at least $548 billion this year for oil. 

• 65% of global reserves are in middle east.

• By 2030, China will import as much oil as U.S.
Petroleum (2005)

In-Sate 37.22%

Alaska 20.99%

Foreign 41.79%

Electricity (2006)

In-State 78.03%

Natural Gas 41.5%

Nuclear 12.9%

Large Hydro 19.0%

Coal* 15.7%

Renewable 10.9%

Imports 21.97%

Natural Gas (2005)

In State 15.0%

Canada 23.0%

Rockies 24.0%

Southwest 38.0%

* Intermountain and Mohave coal plants, though outside

California, are considered "in-state", since they are in

California utilities' control areas.

California’s Energy Sources
Greater San Diego Region
California-Baja California Border 

Population, 1980–2020

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

California Border Baja California Border Total

Source: The U.S.-Mexican Border Environment: A Road Map to a Sustainable 2020. San Diego State University Press.

Paul Ganster, editor, 2000
San Diego’s Energy Sources

• SD is almost entirely dependant on fossil fuels (oil and natural gas) 

imported from outside the region to meet its energy needs.

• Transportation is the largest consumer of energy in the region, 

accounting for over 65% of total energy use. It is also the largest 

source of air pollution.

• Electricity:

– SD imports over 60% of its electricity. Sources for that power are 

natural gas, coal, nuclear, large hydro, and some renewable.

– There are three main in-region generating plants. All use natural 

gas. (Encina, Escondido, South Bay). 

– Very small amount of in-region renewable sources – some solar, 

wind and biomass. Less than 3% of energy use.
ENCINA 

SOUTH BAY

OLD TOWN

PENASQUITOS

TO TIJUANA

MIGUEL

ESCONDIDO

TALEGA 

MEXICO

MISSION

SAN ONOFRE

SAN LUIS REY

SYCAMORE

CANYON

GLENCLIFF

DESCANSO

BARRETT

CAMERON

TO

BOULDER CREEK

SANTA YSABEL

CREELMAN

LOS

COCHES ALPINE

LOVELAND

NARROWS

WARNERS

BORREGO

POWAY

POMERADO

ESCO

RINCON

LILAC

ASH

VALLEY

CENTER

IMPERIAL CO.

RIVERSIDE CO. ORANGE

CO.

SAN DIEGO CO.

BOULEVARD

CRESTWOOD

CAPISTRANO 

TRABUCO 

LAGUNA

NIGUEL

MARGARITA 

CRISTIANITOS 

MAIN STREET IMPERIAL VALLEY

MONSERATE

PALA

ENVIREPEL

Existing Major Generation Plants

Existing 230 kV Substation

Existing 69 kV Substation

Existing 138 kV Substation

Future Generation Plant

Existing Generation Plant

Transmission Line Upgrade

New Transmission Line or Line Section 

Existing 500 kV Transmission Line

Existing 230 kV Transmission Line

Existing 138 kV Transmission Line

Existing 69 kV Transmission Line

County Boundaries

Note: Map not to scale

PALOMAR 

ENERGY

OTAY MESA

SOUTH BAY 69kV 

MONTGOMERY 

69kV 

SWEETWATER 69kV

OTAY LAKE 

TAP

OTAY

Electricity Infrastructure in San Diego

-


Energy Research at SDSU

(partial list)

• Study of renewable energy resources in the 

region.

• Energy and air pollution in the border 

region.

• Monitoring and evaluation of solar energy 

systems at SDSU and in the region.

• Energy Innovations Grants Program.

• IAC and Innovative wind design. 

COE,Asfaw Beyene.
Available at: www.renewablesg.org

Key collaborators:

David Rohy (SDSU)

Sean Tanaka (SDSU)

Al Sweedler (SDSU)

Bob Resley (SDGE)

Tom Bialek (SDGE)

Scott Anders (CCSE/USD)

Margarito Quintero (UABC)

Rick van Schoik (SCERP)
Renewable Energy Potential for SD Region is VERY Large

•Solar:

PV and CSP

•Geothermal

•Wind

•Biomass

Very Large Central Solar Power Potential for Southwest

Source: NREL

Location of Wind Energy Resources in the Region

Source: SDSU Center for Energy Studies

Summary for Renewable Energy Potential in 

the Greater San Diego Region

• There is a very large potential for renewable energy 

development in the greater SD region.

• This resource consists of central solar power and 

geothermal power in the Imperial Valley, roof-top PV 

on commercial and residential buildings and CSP in SD 

County, and wind in SD and Imperial Counties and 

Baja California.

• Whether or not this potential is ever developed depends 

on costs as well as federal, state and local energy 

policies.
• To monitor and evaluate solar PV and thermal systems at SDSU and compare 

with similar systems at UCSD, which is in a different climate zone. 

(fs.sdsu.edu)

• Fletcher Miller (Mechanical Engineering), Al Sweedler, Tyler Otto, Mark 

Hatay (Physics, Env. Sci), Bill Lekas (Physical Plant), Pablo Bryant (Field 

Stations). Collaboration with UCSD.

Monitoring and Evaluation of Solar Systems at 

SDSU
General Conclusions 

• Global:

– Carbon-based fuels will continue to provide major 

portion of global primary energy needs for next 30 –

50 years.

– CO2levels will continue to increase.

– Non-carbon energy sources will take at least 50 

years to significantly replace carbon fuels. Some of 

these energy sources are likely to be: nuclear, solar, 

wind, biofuels.
• Regional:

– California and SD will still continue to rely heavily 

on carbon fuels for the next 30 – 50 years. 

– This will consist of imported natural gas for power 

production and oil for transportation.

– However, there are very large resources of 

renewable energy in the region that could 

potentially replace oil and gas, but

– They will not be developed unless cost is reduced and 

much more aggressive policies are devised to both 

reduce the use of carbon fuels and to facilitate noncarbon energy use.
So ...what is to be done??

• Adapt to inevitable climate change and mitigate the causes.

• Pursuing adaptation and mitigation will also reduce 

national and international security risks associated with 

energy. 

• Adaptation

– Expand water storage, water conservation and reuse.

– Water rationing?

– Avoid (prohibit?) development in low-lying coastal 

areas.

– Strengthen power infrastructure against severe weather 

events.

– Incorporate fire protection/abatement into normal 

planning process.
• Mitigation:

– Reduce dramatically use of carbon-based fuels.

– Price all energy to reflect its true cost - which includes 

security and environmental costs.

– Develop policies that encourage (require?) reduction in 

carbon emissions. Energy rationing?

– Develop carbon capture and storage technologies. 

– Expand use of non-carbon energy resources: e;g; solar 

(electric and thermal), wind, geothermal, tidal, nuclear, 

others.

– Incorporate (require?) sustainability concepts to 

become part of development and permit process.
Role of Universities 

• Education

– Develop courses and degree programs in energy-related fields. 

– In addition to science and engineering aspects of energy, these 

courses need to include economics, policy and regulatory 

affairs.

• Research

– Pursue basic and applied research in new and traditional 

energy technologies.

– Important – emphasize systems and comprehensive approach to 

analysis of energy issues.

• Public outreach

– Universities must educate and inform the public and policymakers about energy issues and related environmental impacts 

and security aspects.