### 10

- i CHAPTER 10

. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 10

- 1

10.1.1 Approach

................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 1

10.1.2 Factors Relevant to the Analysis

................................ ................................ .................... 10

- 2

10.2 BASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFIC IENCY DISTRIBUTIONS AND

FORECASTED EFFICIENC Y TRENDS

................................ ................................ ..... 10

- 4

10.2.1 Central Air Conditioners

................................ ................................ ................................ 10

- 5

10.2.1.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies

................................ ......................... 10

- 5

10.2.1.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends

................................ ................................ ...... 10

- 7

10.2.1.3 Forec asted Efficiency Distributions

................................ ........................... 10

- 11

10.2.2 Heat Pumps

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 16

10.2.2.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies

................................ ....................... 10

- 16

10.2.2.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends

................................ ................................ .... 10

- 19

10.2.2.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions

................................ ........................... 10

- 24

10.2.3 Furnaces

................................ ................................ ................................ ....................... 10

- 26

10.2.3.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies

................................ ....................... 10

- 26

10.2.3.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends

................................ ................................ .... 10

- 28

10.2.3.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions

................................ ........................... 10

- 32

10.2.4 Standby and Off

- Mode

................................ ................................ ................................ 10

- 36

10.2.4.1 Base Case and Standards Case Efficiencies

................................ ............... 10

- 36

10.2.4.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends

................................ ................................ .... 10

- 39

10.3 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

................. 10

- 39

10.3.1 Definition

................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 10

- 39

10.3.2 Inputs to Calculation

................................ ................................ ................................ .... 10

- 40

10.3.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

- Efficiency

................................ .. 10

- 41

10.3.2.2 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

– Standby and Off

- Mode

............. 10

- 56

10.3.2.3 Equipment Stock

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 58

10.3.2.4 Annual Energy Con sumption

................................ ................................ ..... 10

- 58

10.3.2.5 Site

- to

- Source Energy Conversion Factors

................................ ................ 10

- 58

10.4 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL NET PRE SENT VALUE

........... 10

- 59

10.4.1 Definition

................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 10

- 59

10.4.2 Inputs to Calculation

................................ ................................ ................................ .... 10

- 61

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit

- Efficiency

................................ .................. 10

- 61

10.4.2.2 Total Installed Cost per Unit

– Standby and Off

- Mode

............................. 10

- 77

10.4.2.3 Annual Operating Cost per Unit

................................ ................................ 10

- 79

10.4.2.4 Equipment Stock

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 90

10.4.2.5 Increases in Total Annual Installed Cost

................................ ................... 10

- 91

10.4.2.6 Savings in Total Annual Operating Cost

................................ ................... 10

- 91

10.4.2.7 Discount Factors

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 9 1

10.4.2.8 Present Value of Increased Installed Cost

................................ ................. 10

- 92

10.4.2.9 Present Value of Savings

................................ ................................ ........... 10

- 92

### 10

- ii 10.5 RESULTS OF CALCULATI ONS

................................ ................................ .............. 10

- 92

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs

................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 10

- 93

10.5.2 National and Regional Energy Savings by Candidate Standard Level

- Efficiency

.... 10

- 93

10.5.2.1 Central Air Conditioners

................................ ................................ ............ 10

- 94

10.5.2.2 Heat Pumps

................................ ................................ ................................ 10

- 95

10.5.2.3 Furnaces

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 10

- 96

10.5.3 National Energy Savings by Candidate Standard Level

– Standby and Off

- Mode

..... 10

- 97

10.5.3.1 Central Air Conditioners

................................ ................................ ............ 10

- 97

10.5.3.2 Heat Pump s

................................ ................................ ................................ 10

- 98

10.5.3.3 Furnaces

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 10

- 98

10.5.4 Calculating Annual Cost and Savings

................................ ................................ .......... 10

- 99

10.5.5 Net Present Value Results by Candidate Standard Level

- Efficiency

........................ 10

- 99

10.5.5.1 Central Air Conditioners

................................ ................................ .......... 10

- 100

10.5.5.2 Heat Pumps

................................ ................................ .............................. 10

- 103

10.5.5.3 Furnaces

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 10

- 104

10.5.6 Net Present Value Results by Candidate Standard Level

– Standby and Off

- Mode

. 10

- 106

10.5.6.1 Central Air Conditioners

................................ ................................ .......... 10

- 106

10.5.6.2 Heat Pumps

................................ ................................ .............................. 10

- 107

10.5.6.3 Furnaces

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 10

- 107

10.5.7 NES and NPV Results by Trial Standard Level

................................ ........................ 10

- 108

10.5.7.1 Trial Standard Levels for Energy Efficiency

................................ ........... 10

- 108

10.5.7.2 Trial Standard Levels for Standby and Off

- Mode Power

........................ 10

- 111

10.5.7.3 NES Results by Trial Standard Level

- Efficiency

................................ .. 10

- 112

10.5.7.4 NES Results by Trial Standard Level

– Standby and Off

- Mode

............. 10

- 115

10.5.7.5 NPV Results by Trial Standard Level

- Efficiency

................................ .. 10

- 116

10.5.7.6 NPV Results by Trial Standard Level

– Standby and Off

- Mode

............. 10

- 124

10.5.7.7 Summary of Results by Trial Standard Level

................................ .......... 10

- 125

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.2.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only Replacement Units:

SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases in 2016

......................... 10

- 6

Table 10.2.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only New Construction Units

and Blower Coil Units: SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards

Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 10

- 6

Table 10.2.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: SEER Distributions for the Base

and Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ .............. 10

- 7

Table 10.2.4 Central Air Conditioner SWEF Growth Rates from 1993 to 2002

.................... 10

- 8

Table 10.2.5 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only Replacement Units: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

................................ ...................... 10

- 13

Table 10.2.6 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only New Construction Units and Blower Coil Units: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

....... 10

- 14

Table 10.2.7 Single Package Central Air Conditioner: Base Case Efficiency

Distributions and SWEFs

................................ ................................ ................. 10

- 15

### 10

- iii Table 10.2.8 Split System Heat Pump: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 18

Table 10.2.9 Single Package Heat Pump: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 18

Table 10.2.10 Heat Pump SWEF Growth Rates

................................ ................................ ..... 10

- 20

Table 10.2.11 Split System Heat Pumps: SEER

- based Base Case Efficiency

Distributions and SWEFs

................................ ................................ ................. 10

- 25

Table 10.2.12 Single Package Heat Pumps: SEER

- based Base Case Efficiency

Distributions and SWEFs

................................ ................................ ................. 10

- 26

Table 10.2.13 Non

- weatherized Gas Furnaces: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 27

Table 10.2.14 Mobile Home Furnaces: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 28

Table 10.2.15 Oil Furnaces: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases in

2016

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 28

Table 10.2.16 Non

- weatherized Gas Furnace Growth Rates for Condensing Equipment

Fractions

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 10

- 29

Table 10.2.17 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces: AFUE

- based Base Case Efficiency

Distributions and SWEFs

................................ ................................ ................. 10

- 33

Table 10.2.18 Mobile Home Furnaces: AFUE

- based Base Case Efficiency Distributions

and SWEFs

................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 10

- 34

Table 10.2.19 Oil Furnaces: AFUE

- based Base Case Efficiency Distributions and

SWEFs

................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 10

- 35

Table 10.2.20 Off Mode Base

- Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 for Split System

Central Air Conditioners

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 3 7

Table 10.2.21 Off Mode Base

- Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 for Single P ackage

Central Air Conditioners

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 37

Table 10.2.22 Off Mode Base

- Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 for Split System and Single Pa ckage Heat Pumps

................................ ................................ ............. 10

- 38

Table 10.2.23 Standby Mode and Off Mode Base

- Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016

for Non

- Weatherized Gas Fur naces

................................ ................................ . 10

- 38

Table 10.2.24 Standby Mode and Off Mode Base

- Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016

for Oil

- Fired Furnaces

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

- 38

Table 10.2.25 Standby Mode and Off Mode Base

- Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016

for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces

................................ ................................ ....... 10

- 39

Table 10.3.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only Units, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual

En ergy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.......................... 10

- 42

Table 10.3.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only Units, New C onstruction Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ....... 10

- 42

Table 10.3.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: Replacement and New Owner Markets, Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.......................... 10

- 44

### 10

- iv Table 10.3.4 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: New Construction, Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ....... 10

- 44

Table 10.3.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment

- Weighted Average

per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in

2016

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 46

Table 10.3.6 Split System Heat Pump: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual
Energy Consump tion for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.......................... 10

- 47

Table 10.3.7 Single Package Heat Pump: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual

Ener gy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.......................... 10

- 49

Table 10.3.8 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted
Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards

Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 10

- 51

Table 10.3.9 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for

Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ ... 10

- 52

Table 10.3.10 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average

per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in

2016

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 53

Table 10.3.11 Mobile Home Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for

Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ ... 10

- 54

Table 10.3.12 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

............. 10

- 55

Table 10.3.13 Oil Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted
Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Bas e and Standards

Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 10

- 56

Table 10.3.14 Central Air Conditioner: Shipment

- Weighted Off

- Mode Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

............. 10

- 57

Table 10.3.15 Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Off

- Mode Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.......................... 10

- 57

Table 10.3.16 Furnaces: Shipment

- Weighted Standby and Off

- Mode Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

............. 10

- 58

Table 10.4.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil

- Only Units, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total

Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ...... 10

- 63

Table 10.4.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil

- Only Units, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Cost

for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ............................. 10

- 63

Table 10.4.3 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total

Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ...... 10

- 65

### 10

- v Table 10.4.4 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, Ne w Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Cost

for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ............................. 10

- 65

Table 10.4.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: Shipment

Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards

Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 10

- 66

Table 10.4.6 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Cost for

Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ ... 10

- 67

Table 10.4.7 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted
Average per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in

2016

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 68

Table 10.4.8 Split System Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and

Stan dards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 69

Table 10.4.9 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted
Average per

- Unit Total Installe d Costs for Base and Standards Cases in

2016

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 70

Table 10.4.10 Single Package Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 70

Table 10.4.11 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted
Average per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in

2016

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 72

Table 10.4.12 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 72

Table 10.4.13 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average

per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

............ 10

- 74

Table 10.4.14 Mobile Home Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total I nstalled Costs for Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 74

Table 10.4.15 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit

Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

........................... 10

- 76

Table 10.4.16 Oil Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets : Shipment

- Weighted
Average per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in

2016

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 76

Table 10.4.17 Central Air Condi tioner: Shipment

- Weighted Off

- Mode Average per

- Unit

Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

............................. 10

- 78

Table 10.4.18 Hea t Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Off

- Mode Average per

- Unit Total

Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ...... 10

- 78

Table 10.4.19 Furnaces: Shipment

- Weighted Standby and Off

- Mode Average per

- Unit

Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

............................. 10

- 78

### 10

- vi Ta ble 10.4.20 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil

- Only, Replacement and New Owner Units: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair and

Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

............................... 10

- 80

Table 10.4.21 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil

- Only, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for

Base and Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ ... 10

- 80

Table 10.4.22 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: Shipment

Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair and Maintenance Cos t for Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 82

Table 10.4.23 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment

- Weighted Average

per

- Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in

2016

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 83

Table 10.4.24 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair

and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

....................... 10

- 84

Table 10.4.25 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

........... 10

- 86

Table 10.4.26 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

........... 10

- 87

Table 10.4.27 Mobile Home Furnaces: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair and

Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.............................. 10

- 88

Table 10.4.28 Oil Furnaces: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair and

Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

.............................. 10

- 90

Table 10.5.1 Inputs to Calculations

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

- 93

Table 10.5.2 Spli t System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy Savings from 2016

- 2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

....................... 10

- 94

Table 10.5.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy Savings from 2016

- 2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

....................... 10

- 95

Table 10.5.4 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016

- 2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

....................... 10

- 95

Table 10.5.5 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National Energy Savings from

2016

- 2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

................................ ............. 10

- 96

Table 10.5.6 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Cumulative National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016

- 2045

................................ ................................ ..... 10

- 96

Table 10.5.7 Mobile Home Furnaces: Cumulative National and Regional Energy Savings from 2016

- 2045

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 96

Table 10.5.8 Oil Furnaces: Cumulative National and Regional Energy Savings from

2016

- 2045

................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 97

Table 10.5.9 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Off

- Mode National Energy Savings

from 2016

- 2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

................................ ..... 10

- 98

Table 10.5.10 Heat Pumps: Cumulative Off

- Mode National Energy Savings from 2016

- 2045

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 98

Table 10.5.11 Furnaces: Cumulative Standby and Off

- Mode National Energy Savings

from 2016

- 2045

................................ ................................ ............................... 10

- 98

### 10

- vii Table 10.5.12 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results (3% Discount Rate)

................................ ............ 10

- 101

Table 10.5.13 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results (7% Discount Rate)

................................ ............ 10

- 102

Table 10.5.14 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative
National NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector

......................... 10

- 103

Table 10.5.15 Split System Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional
NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector

................................ ........ 10

- 104

Table 10.5.16 Single Package Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector

......................... 10

- 104

Table 10.5.17 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the

Residential Sector

................................ ................................ .......................... 10

- 105

Table 10.5.18 Mobile Home Furnaces: NPV Results for the Residential Sector

................. 10

- 105

Table 10.5.19 Oil Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the Residential Sector

............... 10

- 106

Table 10.5.20 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off

- Mode NPV Results (3% Discount Rate)

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 106

Table 10.5.21 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off

- Mode NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector (7% Discount Rate)

.............................. 10

- 107

Table 10.5.22 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV
Results, Residential and Commercial Sector

................................ ................. 10

- 107

Table 10.5.23 Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the Residential Sector

..................... 10

- 107

Table 10.5.24 Trial Standard Levels for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps and Furnaces (Energy Efficiency)

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 110

Table 10.5.25 Trial Standard Levels for Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps, and Furnaces (Standby Mode and Off Mode Power)

................................ ........... 10

- 112

Table 10.5.26 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NES Results

from 2016

- 2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

................................ ... 10

- 112

Table 10.5.27 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results from 2016

- 2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

........ 10

- 113

Table 10.5.28 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results

from 2016

- 2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

................................ ... 10

- 113

Table 10.5.29 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results

from 2016

- 2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

................................ ... 10

- 114

Table 10.5.30 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Cumulative National Energy Savings

Results from 2016

- 2045 for the Residential Sector

................................ ....... 10

- 114

Table 10.5.31 Mobile Home Furnaces: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results

from 2016

- 2045 for the Residential Sector

................................ .................... 10

- 115

Table 10.5.32 Oil Furnaces: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results from 2016

- 2045 for the Residential Sector

................................ ................................ ...... 10

- 115

Table 10.5.33 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Off

- Mode National Energy Savings

from 2016

- 2045, Residential and Commercial Sector

................................ ... 10

- 116

Table 10.5.34 Heat Pumps: Cumulative Off

- Mode National Energy Savings from 2016

- 2045

................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 10

- 116

### 10

- viii Table 10.5.35 Furnaces: Cumulative Standby and Off

- Mode National Energy Savings

from 2016

- 2045

................................ ................................ ............................. 10

- 116

Table 10.5.36 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NPV Results (3% Discount Rate)

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 117

Table 10.5.37 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NPV Results (7% Discount Rate)

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 117

Table 10.5.38 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NPV
Results, Residential and Commercial Sector*

................................ ............... 10

- 118

Table 10.5.39 Single Package Central Air Conditioners Sum of Net Benefits: Cumulative
National NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector with Present

Value of Monetized Emissions and Standby and Off

- Mode Net Benefits*

.. 10

- 118

Table 10.5.40 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National NPV Results

..................... 10

- 120

Table 10.5.41 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National NPV Results*

............... 10

- 121

Table 10.5.42 Single Package Heat Pumps Sum of Net Benefits:: Cumulative National NPV Results with Present Value of Monetized Emissions and Standby and

Off

- mode Net Benefits*

................................ ................................ ................. 10

- 122

Table 10.5.43 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Discounted Regional NPV Results for

the Residential Sector

................................ ................................ .................... 10

- 123

Table 10.5.44 Mobile Home Furnaces: Discounted Regional NPV Results for the

Residential Sector

................................ ................................ .......................... 10

- 123

Table 10.5.45 Oil Furnaces: Discounted Regional NPV Results for the Residential Sector 10

- 124

Table 10.5.46 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off

- Mode NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector (3% Discount Rate)

.............................. 10

- 124

Table 10.5.47 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off

- Mode NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector (7% Discount Rate)

.............................. 1 0

- 125

Table 10.5.48 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV
Results, Residential and Commercial Sector

................................ ................. 10

- 125

Table 10.5.49 Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the Residential Sector

..................... 10

- 125

Table 10.5.50 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces: Cumulative National Energy Savings for Energy Efficiency TSLs for 2016

- 2045

......................... 10

- 126

Table 10.5.51 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces: Cumulative National Energy Savings for Standby Mode and Off Mode Power TSLs for 2016

- 2045

................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 10

- 126

Table 10.5.52 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces: Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Energy Efficiency TSLs

................ 10

- 126

Table 10.5.53 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces: Cumulative Net

Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Standb y Mode and Off Mode

Power TSLs

................................ ................................ ................................ .... 10

- 127

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.2.1 Central Air Conditioner Historical SWEFs with Linear Fits

............................. 10

- 8

### 10

- ix Figure 10.2.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only Replacement Units:

SEER

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for t he

Base Case and Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ....... 10

- 10 Figure 10.2.3 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only New Construction Units

and Blow er Coil Units: SEER

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for Base Case and Standards Cases

................................ .... 10

- 11 Figure 10.2.4 Sin gle Package Central Air Conditioner: SEER

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

............. 10

- 11 Figure 10.2.5 Split System Heat Pump: HSPF and SEER relationship

................................ . 10

- 16 Figure 10.2.6 Single Package Heat Pump: HSPF and SEER rel ationship

............................. 10

- 17 Figure 10.2.7 Heat Pump Historical SWEFs based on SEER with Linear Fits

..................... 10

- 19 Figure 10.2.8 Split System Heat Pump: SEER

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

................................ ....... 10

- 21 Figure 10.2.9 Split System Heat Pump: HSPF

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

................................ ....... 10

- 22 Figure 10.2.10 Single Package Heat Pump: SEER

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

.................... 10

- 23 Figure 10.2.11 Single Package Heat Pump: HSPF

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

.................... 10

- 23 Figure 10.2.12 Non

- weatherized Gas Furnace Historical Fractions of Condensing Equipment by Region with Linear Fits

................................ ............................ 10

- 29 Figure 10.2.13 Non

- weatherized Gas Furnaces: AFUE

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

.................... 10

- 31 Figure 10.2.14 Mobile Home Furnaces: AFUE

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

................................ ....... 10

- 31 Figure 10.2.15 Oil Furnaces: AFUE

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency

Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

................................ ........................ 10

- 32 Figure 10.3.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only Units, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average p er

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045

Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

- 43 Figure 10.3.2 Split System Ce ntral Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast

Period

................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 10

- 45 Figure 10.3.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment

- Weighted Average

per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over

the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 46 Figure 10.3.4 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 20 16

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 48 Figure 10.3.5 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Heating Energy Consump tion for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 48

### 10

- x Figure 10.3.6 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over

the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 50 Figure 10.3. 7 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over

the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 50 Figure 10.3.8 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted
Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and

CSL 1 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ..................... 10

- 52 Figure 10.3.9 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average

per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 1 over

the 201 6

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 54 Figure 10.3.10 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consump tion for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 56 Figure 10.3.11 Site

- to

- Source Conversion Factors

................................ ................................ .. 10

- 59 Figure 10.4.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil

- Only Units, Replacement and

New Owner Markets : Shipment

- Weighted Average Total Installed Cost

for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................. 10

- 64 Figure 10.4.2 S plit System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the

Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

............................. 10

- 66 Figure 10.4.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: Shipment

Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 2 over

the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 67 Figure 10.4.4 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 69 Figure 10.4.5 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 71 Figure 10.4.6 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 73 Figure 10.4.7 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average

Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016

- 2045

Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

- 75 Figure 10.4.8 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average Total

Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast

Period

................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 10

- 77 Figure 10.4.9 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil

- Only Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Repair and

Maintenance Cos ts for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045

Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

- 81

### 10

- xi Figure 10.4.10 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units: Shipment

Weighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base

Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ..... 10

- 82 Figure 10.4.11 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over

the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 83 Figure 10.4.12 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Repair

and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045

Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

- 85 Figure 10.4.13 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Repair

and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045

Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

- 86 Figure 10.4.14 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Repair and Ma intenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the

2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ .............. 10

- 87 Figure 10.4.15 Mobile Home Furnaces : Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Repair and

Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016

- 2045

Forecast Period

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

- 89 Figure 10.4.16 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the

2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

................................ ................................ .............. 10

- 90 Figure 10.5.1 Non

- Discounted Annual Increases in Installed Cost and Savings in Operating Cost for Split System Coil

- Only Central Air Conditioners, CSL

2

................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 9910-1 

### CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYS E S

10.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter describes the method that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) developed to estimate the energy savings, and net present value of those energy savings, that consumers

wou ld receive from potential new energy efficiency standards for residential and commercial

consumers of central air conditioners (CAC) and heat pumps (HP) , and furnaces . This chapter

examines the national and regional energy savings (NES) attributable to eac h CSL and TSL

, along with the energy savings specific to three regions based on climate for central air conditioners and heat pumps: a hot

- humid climate (the Southeast), a hot

- dry climate (the Southwest) , the two regions based on climate for furnaces: Nort h and South

, and the rest of the Nation. The results presented here for the nation as a whole and for each of the regions include: (1) potential energy consumption and savings; (2) the monetary value of energy savings attributable to each CSL; (3) increase d total installed costs (purchase price plus installation costs) attributable to each CSL; and (4) the net present value (NPV) of energy savings (the difference between the value of energy savings and increased total installed costs in 200 9 $).

DOE dete rmined both the energy savings and NPV for each CSL considered for the product comprising central air conditioners and heat pumps and furnaces. The calculations were performed using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is accessible on the Internet ( http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/central_ac_hp.html ). The spreadsheet model, termed the National Impact Analysis (NI A) model, calculates energy savings and NPV for the nation and for each of the regions analyzed. Details regarding and instructions for using the NIA model are provided in appendix 10

- A.

10.1.1 Approach

The critical fac t or s that govern energy consumption by cent ral air conditioners and heat pumps and furnaces ar e: (1) the quantities ship ped; (2) financial considerations such as consumer response to changes in total installed cost

, operating expense s , and household income ; and (3) voluntary programs that promot e h igher

- efficiency products

. Chapter 9 describes in detail the shipments model that DOE used to forecast future purchases of furnaces and central air conditioners and heat pumps . Chapter 9 includes detailed descriptions of consumers’ sensitivities

to total i nstalled cost, operating expense, and income (otherwise known as elasticities), and how DOE captured those elasticities within the NIA model.

Voluntary programs increase the market share of energy efficient equipment. Central air conditioner, heat pump , and furnace efficiency have grown since the early 1990s in part due to voluntary programs. Consequently, DOE assumed that market

- based initiatives would continue to have the same effect on the efficiency of product shipments as it has in the past. Deta ils on how this effect was captured in the analysis are detailed below in section 10.2.10-2 

### 10.1.2 Factors Relevant to the Analysis

The product and product classes being considered for new standards are described in

detail in chapter 3

. Below is a brief description of the product, product classes, and other factors that were considered in evaluating the effects of potential new energy standards.

**•** Product being considered:

o Central air conditioners, heat pumps and furnaces.

**•** Product classes within these product s : a



### o split system air conditioners,

o single package air conditioners,

o split system heat pumps,

o single package heat pumps,

o non

- weatherized gas furnaces,

o mobile home furnaces,

o oil furnaces, and

o electric furnaces. b



### • Markets:

o Central air conditioners: 93 percent used in residential settings; 7 percent used in commercial settings.

 Split systems comprise 90.4 percent of both the residential and

commercial markets.

 Single package systems represent 9.6 percent of both the resident ial and

commercial markets.

o Heat pumps: 93 percent used in residential settings; 7 percent used in commercial settings.

 Split systems comprise 87.7 percent of both the residential and

commercial markets.

 Single package systems represent 12.3 percent of b oth the residential and

commercial markets.

o Furnaces: 100 percent used in residential settings.

 Non

- weatherized gas furnaces comprise 76.8 percent of the market.

 Mobile home f urnaces comprise 3.7 of the market.

 Oil furnaces comprise 2.1 percent of the mar ket.

 Electric furnaces comprise 17.4 percent of the market.

**•** Channels (i.e., product placement):

o Central air conditioners are purchased for:

 new construction,

a There are three other product classes including (1) small duct high velocity (SDHV) systems, (2) space

- constrained
air conditioners, and (3) space

- constrained heat pumps which are not being analyzed explicitly due to lack of
available data and limited pro duct offerings. Because the above three product classes comprise a very small
percentage of the overall market, the national impacts determined from potential energy efficiency standards are not
significantly impacted by amended energy efficiency standards from these three product classes.

b Only standby and off mode power consumption standard levels are considered for electric furnaces.10-3 

###  replacements, and

 existing households and commercial building owners that do not already own the product (hereafter referred to as “ new owners ”).

o Heat pumps are purchased for:

 new construction,

 replacements, and

 new owners.

o Furnaces are purchased for:

 new construction,

 replacement s, and

 new owners.

**•** Effects of increased purchase price, operating cost savings, and household income:

o Central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces: Evaluated for replacement purchases only. Determined the fraction of affected consumers that would rep air their product rather than replace it, extending the life of the product by six years.

**•** Equipment switching:

o Central air conditioners and heat pumps: Evaluated solely for split systems; specifically, efficiency standards combinations which propose higher levels for heat pumps than for air conditioners. Determined the fraction of heat pump

consumers that would switch to air conditioner and electric furnace combinations.

o Furnaces: Did not evaluate equipment switching to electric space

- conditioning

systems.

**•** Regional standards considered: c



### o Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps d



###  hot

- humid region (consisting of states in the Southeastern U.S. including
Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas , and Virginia ; Hawaii is also included);

 hot

- dry region (consisting of states in the Southwest including Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico; California is also included);

 the rest of the Nation; that is, the remaini ng 33 states including Alaska.

o Furnaces

 North region (consisting of states in the rest of the Nation as defined for central air conditioners and heat pumps);

 South region (consisting of states in the hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions as

defined for central air conditioners and heat pumps).

**•** Standard Levels on energy efficiency:

o 15 levels for split system air conditioners, coil

- only units and blower coil units,

c Regional standards are being considered in addition to standards for the Nation as a whole.

d For single

- package air co nditioners and single

- package heat pumps, DOE has not analyzed the regional standards

on a national basis because the standard s being considered are identical in each region. Additionally, given the low
level of shipments of these products, DOE determined that an analysis of regional standards would not produce
significant energy savings differences in comparison to a single national standard. DOE made a similar

determination for oil

- fired furnaces.10-4 

### o seven levels for single package air conditioners,

o 13 levels for split system heat pumps

,

o seven leve ls for single package heat pumps,

o four levels for non

- weatherized gas furnaces,

o three levels for mobile home furnaces, and

o four levels for oil furnaces.

**•** Standard Levels on standby and off mode power consumption:

o three levels for split system air conditione rs,

o three levels for single package air conditioners,

o two levels for split system heat pumps,

o two levels for single package heat pumps,

o two levels for non

- weatherized gas furnaces,

o two levels for mobile home gas furnaces,

o two levels for oil furnaces, an d

o two levels for electric furnaces.

10.2 BASE AND STANDARDS C ASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUT IONS AND

FORECASTED EFFICIENC Y TRENDS

A key component of DOE’s estimates of national and regional energy savings and net present value (NPV) is the energy efficiency forecasted over time for the base case (without new standards) and for each of the standards cases (with potential new standards). The forecasted efficiencies represent the annual shipment

- weighted energy efficiency (SWEF) of the product

classes under cons ideration from the assumed effective date of a new standard to 30 years after that date. Key inputs to the calculation of both national and regional energy savings and NPV depend on estimated energy efficiencies. Per

- unit annual energy consumption, for exa mple, is a direct function of product efficiency and dictates energy savings. Chapter 7 , Energy Use Determination, describes how per

- unit energy consumption changes as a function of efficiency for each product class. With regard to the NPV, two inputs, th e per

- unit total installed cost and the per

- unit annual operating cost, depend on efficiency. The per

- unit total installed cost is a direct function of efficiency because more efficient products are assumed to be more expensive

than their less efficient co unterparts

. Because per

- unit annual operating cost is a direct function of per

- unit annual energy consumption , it too is dependent on product efficiency. C hapter 8,

Life

- Cycle Cost (LCC) and Payback Period (PBP) Analysis, descri bes how per

- unit total

insta lled cost changes as a function of efficiency for each product class. The above and all other inputs to the calculation of energy savings and NPV are discussed in sections 10.3.2 and 10.4.2.

The three sections below (section s 10.2.1, 10.2.2, and 10.2.3) d escribe how DOE developed base and standards case efficiency distributions and forecasted efficiency trends.

As noted in section 10.1.2, DOE constructed and conducted its NIA to analyze regional

standards and standards for the Nation as a whole. For cent ral air conditioners and heat pumps, three specific regions were analyzed (hot

- humid, hot

- dry, and rest

- of

- country), while for furnaces, two regions were analyzed (North and South). For central air conditioners, heat pumps,
mobile home furnaces, and oil fu rnaces, DOE only received efficiency data at the national level. As a result, DOE assumed that the efficiency distributions and trends developed for the entire10-5 

### Nation are also representative at the regional level (i.e., efficiency distributions and trends do not vary by region). For non

- weatherized gas furnaces, DOE received efficiency data at a regional level, thereby allowing it to construct efficiency distributions and trends at a regional level.

10.2.1 Central Air Conditioners

10.2.1.1 Base and Standards Case Efficien cies

For both central air conditioner product classes

— split systems and single package

systems

— DOE developed product efficiencies in the base case by assigning equipment to specific efficiency levels for the year 2016. In other words, DOE determined the di stribution of product efficiencies currently in the marketplace to develop a SEER

- based SWEF for the year

2016. DOE derived its base case efficiency distributions for split system and single package central air conditioners on SWEF data provided by AHRI i n combination with the range of product offerings in AHRI’s listing of certified unitary air

- conditioner equipment. For more details on the derivation of the split system and single package base case efficiencies, refer to chapter 8, LCC and PBP Analysis.

For its determination of standards

- case efficiencies, DOE assumed a “roll

- up” scenario to establish the SWEF for the year that standards are assumed to become effective (i.e., 2016). DOE assumed that product efficiencies in the base case that did n ot meet the standard under consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. In addition, DOE assumed that all product efficiencies in the base case that were above the standard under consideration would not

be affected.

Table 10.2.1 the SEER

- based efficiency distributions and resulting SWEF for the base case and standards cases for split system coil

- only replacement unit central air conditioners in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). Table 10.2.2 presents the SEER

- based efficiency distributions and resulting SWEF for the base case and standards cases for split system

coil

- only new construction units and blower coil units in the year 2016. As described in c hapter 8, DOE estimated that split system coil

- only new construction units would be installed in the same manner as split system blower coil only units. As result, coil

- only new construction units are characterized in the exact same manner as blower coil units (i.e., same cost

- efficiency

relations hips, same installation costs, same repair and maintenance costs, same annual energy use, and same forecasted efficiencies). Table 10.2.3 presents the SEER

- based e fficiency distributions and resulting SWEF for the base case and standards cases for single package central air conditioners in the year 2016. Each table clearly shows how each standards case, under a

“roll

- up” scenario, affects the efficiency distributio n.10-6 

### Table 10.2.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner , Coil

- Only Replacement Units:

SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL SEER Market Share

Base

Case Standards Case

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Baseline 13.0 24.6%

- - - - - - - - -

1 13.5 48.2% 72.8%

- - - - - - - -

2 14.0 4.1% 4.1% 76.9%

- - - - - - -

3 14.5 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 84.4%

- - - - - -

4 15.0 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 90.3%

- - - - -

5 15.5 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 92.3%

- - - -

6 16.0 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 99.5%

- - -

7 16.5 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 100.0%

- -

8 17.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100.0%

-

9 18.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100.0%

SWEF 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00



### Table 10.2.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only New Construction Units

and Blower Coil Units: SEER Distributions for the Base and Standards

Cases in 2016

CSL SEER Market Share

Base

Case Standards Case

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Baseline 13.0 18.5%

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

1 13.5 36.2% 54.6%

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

2 14.0 3.1% 3.1% 57.7%

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

3 14.5 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 63.3%

- - - - - - - - - - - -

4 15.0 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 67.7%

- - - - - - - - - - -

5 15.5 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 69.2%

- - - - - - - - - -

6 16.0 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 74.6%

- - - - - - - - -

7 16.5 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 75.0%

- - - - - - - -

8 17.0 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 85.0%

- - - - - - -

9 18.0 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 92.0%

- - - - - -

10 19.0 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 95.0%

- - - - -

11 20.0 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 97.0%

- - - -

12 21.0 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 99.0%

- - -

13 22.0 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 100.0%

- -

14 23.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100.0%

-

15 24.5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100.0%

SWEF 14.92 15.01 15.28 15.57 15.89 16.23 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 23.0 24.510-7 

### Table 10.2.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: SEER Distributions for the

Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL SEER Market Share

Base Case Standards Case

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Baseline 13.0 62.7%

- - - - - - -

1 13.5 20.0% 82.7%

- - - - - -

2 14.0 14.3% 14.3% 97.0%

- - - - -

3 14.5 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 99.0%

- - - -

4 15.0 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 100.0%

- - -

5 15.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

- -

6 16.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

-

7 16.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

SWEF 13.29 13.61 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.60



### 10.2.1.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends

Historical Efficiency Trends

Using the SWEF for the y ear 2016 as a star ting point, DOE developed base

- c ase forecasted efficiency trends based on assumptions regarding future efficiency growth . To estimate SWEFs over the 30 year forecast spanning 2016

– 2045 , DOE reviewed historical SWEF data provided by the Air

- Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) spanning the

years 1992 to 2009. 1



### Figure 10.2 .1 The year 1992 is the year in which the first set of standards for central air conditioner and heat pumps became effective. The year 2006 is the year in which an updated set

of standards became effective. shows the SWEFs for split system and single package central air conditioners. The figure also presents the linear fit to each product class’ SWEF data series between the years 1993 and 2002. DOE considered only the 1993 to 2002 time period to forecast SWEF growth rates in order to factor out: (1) any lingering effects on equipment SWEFs from industry efforts to comply with the 1992 standards; (2) any anticipatory efforts by the industry to comply with the 2006 standards that DOE issued in 2001; and (3) the effects of recent Federal tax credits to promote the purchase of high

- efficiency central air conditioners and heat pumps. The linear fits have high coefficients of determination, i.e., linear fits provide a good estimate of the SWEF growth rate. Table 10.2.4 provides a summary of the SWEF growth rates for each product class during 1993 to 2002

.10-8 

### Figure 10.2.1 Central Air Conditioner Historical SWEFs with Linear Fits

Table 10.2.4 Central Air Conditioner SWEF Growth Rates from 1993 to 2002

SWEF Growth Rate

Product Class SEER increase per year

Split System Air Conditioners 0.0647

Single Package Air Conditioners 0.0752



### Base Case Efficiency Trends

Because various market

- pull programs such as Energy Star and utility rebate programs were in existence from 1992 to 2003, the SWEF growth rate evident in the historical data was likely due in part to these market

- pull programs. Any market pull programs in effect during 1992 to 2003 were less effective than the Federal tax credit programs in existence from 2006

- 2007 and 2009

- 2011 as the more recent tax credit programs have resulted in a greater rate of adoption of more efficient products. DOE assumed that market pull programs in existence during

1992

- 2003 are more reflective of typical market

- pull effectiveness, i.e., the recent Federal tax credits are seen as extraordinarily aggressive. As a result, DOE applied the SWEF growth rates

in Table 10.2.4 to the base case SWEFs in 2016 to forecast annual SWEFs for the central air conditioner product classes from 2016 to 2045. Application of the SWEF growth rates in this

manner assumes that future market

- pull programs will be a s effective at increasing product efficiency as the programs in existence from 1992 to 2003.

Standards Case Efficiency Trends Split A/C

SEER = 0.06472 * year - 118.47880

R 2 = 0.93191

Package A/C

SEER = 0.07524 * year - 139.64023

R 2 = 0.90774

9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

YearShipment-Weighted SEER Split A/C

Package A/C

Linear (Split A/C)

Linear (Package A/C)10-9 

### To develop standards case forecasted SWEFs, DOE developed growth trends for each

candidate standard level that maintained the s ame per

- unit average total installed cost difference for the year 2016 between the base case and each standards case over the entire forecast period (2016

– 2045). DOE’s approach for developing standards case SWEFs in this manner assumes

that the rate of ad option of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a rate that ensures that the average total installed cost difference between the standards case and base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. Because the total installed costs versus efficiency relationships for many of the standard levels for each product class demonstrate an increasing cost rate for more efficient products, the SWEF growth rate for many of the standards cases is lower than the SWEF growth rate for the base case.

DOE modified the general approach for split system central air conditioner coil

- only replacement units at 15 SEER and above, for which consumers would incur a very large additional cost to install a furnace fan kit ( see c hapter 8 reg arding installation costs for more

details ). DOE believes that few consumers would choose to incur such a cost, so it assumed that

the market share of units at 15 SEER and above would not increase for the base case (13 SEER)

and the 13.5, 14, and 14.5, 15, and 15.5 SEER standards cases. For standards cases of 16 SEER
and above, the market share of efficiencies above the considered standards were allowed to

grow. Because the above method of forecasting air conditioner efficiency results in frozen

market sha res of products with efficiencies of 15 SEER and greater, DOE investigated an efficiency trend sensitivity for split system central air conditioner coil

- only replacement units that allows some migration of products to 15 SE ER and above. Appendix 10

- D provi des a description of this efficiency trend sensitivity and the impact it has on the NES and NPV of amended efficiency standards for split system central air conditioners.

For single package air conditioners, DOE observes that the market conditions are somewhat distinct from split system air conditioners as 97 percent of the single package market is comprised of low efficiency products of 13 to 14 SEER. In addition, DOE obs erves that higher efficiency single

- package systems are more expensive relative to the lower efficiency models compared to the general cost structure for split system units. This indicates that efficiency trends for single

- package systems are likely to be smaller than those for split systems. Nonetheless, DOE modeled the efficiency tren ds for single

- package units the same as it modeled

the trends for blower

- coil split systems. While DOE believes that this approach is conservative,

DOE did not have the data available to calibrate a more precise forecast of efficiency trends for this product class. An overestimate of the efficiency trend will likely lead to an overestimate of equipment costs resulting from a standard for these products. As a result, net consu mer benefits from a standard are likely to be higher than the DOE estimate provided in this TSD.

Depicting Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Trends

Figure 10.2.8 show s the base case historical SWEFs, the base case forecasted efficiency trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency trend for split system coil

- only replacement

units

. Figure 10.2.3 show s the SEER

- based base case historical SWEFs, the base case forecasted efficiency trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency trend for coil

- only new

construction units and blower coil units

. Figure 10.2.4 shows the SEER

- based SWEFs for single package central air conditioners

. Note that for some standards cases, the efficienc y trend does not increase past the Max Tech level. The Max Tech levels for split system coil

- only units is 1810-10 

### SEER, while the Max Tech level for coil

- only new construction and blower coil units is 24.5

SEER. The Max Tech level for single package units is 16.5 SEER.

Figure 10.2.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner , Coil

- Only Replacement Units:

SEER

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the

Base Case and Standards Cases 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearSWEF (SEER) Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER

CSL 4: 15 SEER

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER

CSL 6: 16 SEER

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER

CSL 8: 17 SEER

CSL 9: 18 SEER

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearSWEF (SEER) Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER

CSL 4: 15 SEER

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER

CSL 6: 16 SEER

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER

CSL 8: 17 SEER

CSL 9: 18 SEER

CSl 10: 19 SEER

CSL 11: 20 SEER

CSL 12: 21 SEER

CSL 13: 22 SEER

CSL 14: 23 SEER

CSL 15: 24.5 SEER10-11 

### Figure 10.2.3 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only New Construction Units

and Blower Coil Units: SEER

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted
Efficiency Trends for Base Case and Standards Cases

Figure 10.2.4 Single Package Central Air Conditioner: SEER

- based Historical SWEFs
and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

10.2.1.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions

Once DOE developed base case and standards case efficiency trends, it derived a distribution of product efficiencies from the forecasted SWEFs for each year of the analysis period (2016

– 2045) by developing appropriate m arket shares for the various standard levels.

As specified in Table 10.2.1

, Table 10.2.2 , and Table 10.2.3 , DOE developed the product efficiency distributions for the year the standard is assumed to become effective (2016) using a

“ roll

- up” scenario. For subsequent years (2017

– 2045), DOE assigned the market shares to the standard levels so that the resulting calculated SWEF remained equal to the forecasted SWEF. This assignment was conducted by pulling market shares from lower effi ciency levels to higher efficiency levels until the calculated SWEF equaled the forecasted value.

Table 10.2.5 provides an example of a forecasted efficiency di stribution

— the specific case of the forecasted efficiency distribution for the base case (without standards) for split system coil

- only replacement units. Table 10.2.6 does the same for coil

- only new construction units and blower coil units. As an example for single package central air conditioners, Table

10.2.7 provides th e forecasted efficiency distributions for the base case. The tables also provide the resulting SWEF for each year during the forecast period. The NIA spreadsheet (detailed in 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearSWEF (SEER) Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER

CSL 4: 15 SEER

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER

CSL 6: 16 SEER

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER10-12 

### Appendix 10

- A) provides the forecasted efficiency distributions for all the sta ndards cases for both split system and single package central air conditioners

.10-13 

### Table 10.2.5 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only Replacement Units:
Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

Year Market Shares by SEER Level

SWEF 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 18

2016 24.6% 48.2% 4.1% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.80

2017 7.8% 65.1% 4.1% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.88

2018 0.0% 65.2% 11.7% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.96

2019 0.0% 49.8% 27.1% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.03

2020 0.0% 34.3% 42.7% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.11

2021 0.0% 18.6% 58.3% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.19

2022 0.0% 3.0% 74.0% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.27

2023 0.0% 0.0% 64.1% 20.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.35

2024 0.0% 0.0% 48.2% 36.1% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.43

2025 0.0% 0.0% 32.3% 52.1% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.51

2026 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 68.1% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.59

2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6710-14 

### Table 10.2.6 Split System Central Air Conditioner , Coil

- Only New Construction Units

and Blower Coil Units: Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs

Year Market Shares by SEER Level

SWEF 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.5

2016 18.5% 36.2% 3.1% 5.6% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.92

2017 2.0% 52.7% 3.1% 5.6% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.00

2018 0.0% 40.0% 17.7% 5.6% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.08

2019 0.0% 23.3% 34.4% 5.6% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.17

2020 0.0% 6.5% 51.2% 5.6% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.25

2021 0.0% 0.0% 47.3% 15.9% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.33

2022 0.0% 0.0% 30.4% 32.9% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.42

2023 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 49.9% 4.4% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.50

2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 59.4% 8.2% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.59

2025 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.2% 25.5% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.68

2026 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.9% 42.8% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.76

2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 60.3% 1.5% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.85

2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 57.6% 11.7% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.94

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.9% 29.3% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.03

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 47.0% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.11

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 64.8% 5.4% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.20

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55.7% 18.9% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.29

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.7% 36.9% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.38

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 55.1% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.47

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 73.3% 0.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.57

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 57.6% 17.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.66

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.2% 35.8% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.75

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.7% 54.3% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.84

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 73.0% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.93

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.3% 26.7% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.03

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.5% 45.5% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.12

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 64.5% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.22

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 83.5% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.31

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 76.2% 15.8% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.41

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.5% 25.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5010-15 

### Table 10.2.7 Single Package Central Air Conditioner: Base Case Efficiency

Distributions and SWEFs

Year Market Share by SEER Level

SWEF 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16. 5

2016 62.7% 20.0% 14.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.29

2017 43.9% 38.8% 14.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.39

2018 25.0% 57.7% 14.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.48

2019 5.8% 76.9% 14.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.58

2020 0.0% 69.3% 27.7% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.67

2021 0.0% 49.9% 47.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.77

2022 0.0% 30.4% 66.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.87

2023 0.0% 10.8% 86.2% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.97

2024 0.0% 0.0% 88.0% 11.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.07

2025 0.0% 0.0% 68.0% 31.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.16

2026 0.0% 0.0% 48.0% 51.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.27

2027 0.0% 0.0% 27.7% 71.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.37

2028 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 91.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.47

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 85.9% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.57

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.2% 34.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44.4% 55.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.78

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 76.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.88

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 97.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.99

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 81.1% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.09

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 59.7% 40.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.20

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 38.2% 61.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.31

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 83.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.42

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 94.7% 5.3% 0.0% 15.53

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 72.6% 27.4% 0.0% 15.64

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.5% 49.5% 0.0% 15.75

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.2% 71.8% 0.0% 15.86

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 94.3% 0.0% 15.97

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 83.1% 16.9% 16.08

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.3% 39.7% 16.20

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.3% 62.7% 16.3110-16 

### 10.2.2 Heat Pumps

10.2.2.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies

For both heat pump product classes

— split systems and single package systems

— DOE developed product efficiencies in the base case by assigning equipment to specific efficiency

levels for the year 2016. In other words, DOE determined the distribution of prod uct efficiencies currently in the marketplace to develop a SEER

- based SWEF for the year 2016. DOE derived its

base

- case efficiency distributions for split system and single package heat pumps on SWEF data provided by AHRI in combination with the range of product offerings in AHRI’s listing of certified unitary heat pump equipment . For more details on the derivation of the split system and single package base case efficiencies, refer to chapter 8, LCC and PBP Analysis.

AHRI’s SWEF data for heat pumps we re based solely on SEER

— not HSPF. To

determine HSPF

- based SWEFs for the base case, DOE used the SEER and HSPF pairings presented in chapter 5, Engineering Analysis, to define the relationship between SEER and HSPF for both split system and single package heat pump s. The SEER and HSPF pairings for split system heat pumps are graphically presented in Figure 10.2.5 . Also provided in the figure is the equation represe nting the linear relationship between SEER and HSPF.

Figure 10.2.5 Split System Heat Pump: HSPF and SEER relationship HSPF = 0.2362 * SEER + 4.9445

for SEER ≤ 21



### 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

SEERHSPF 

### HSPF = 9.9

for SEER > 2110-17 

### The SEER and HSPF pairings for single package heat pumps are graphically presented in Figure 10.2.6 . Also provided in the figure is the equation representing the linear relationship

between SEER and HSPF.

Figure 10.2.6 Single Package Heat Pump: HSPF and SEER relationship

For its determination of standards

- case efficiencies, DOE assumed a “roll

- up” scenario to

establish both a SEER

- based and HSPF

- based SWEF for the year that standards are assumed to become effective (i.e., 2016). Using the same method as was developed for central air conditioners, DOE assumed that product efficiencies in the base case that did not meet the standard under consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. In addition, DOE assumed that all product efficiencies in the base case tha t were above the standard under

consideration would not be affected.

Table 10.2.8 and Table 10.2.9 present the efficiency distributions and resulting SEER

based and HSPF

- based SWEFs for the base case and standards cases for split system and single package heat pumps, respectively. Each table clearly shows how each stand ards case, under a

“roll

- up” scenario, affects the efficiency distribution. HSPF = 0.3619 * SEER + 3.0119

7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2

12 13 14 15 16 17

SEERHSPF10-18 

### Table 10.2.8 Split System Heat Pump : Efficiency Distributions for the Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

CSL SEER HSPF Market Share

Base

Case Standards Case

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Baseline 13.0 8.0 13.0%

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

1 13.5 8.1 40.0% 53.0%

- - - - - - - - - - - -

2 14.0 8.3 10.0% 10.0% 63.0%

- - - - - - - - - - -

3 14.5 8.4 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 76.0%

- - - - - - - - - -

4 15.0 8.5 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 87.5%

- - - - - - - - -

5 15.5 8.6 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 91.0%

- - - - -- - - -

6 16.0 8.7 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 96.0%

- - - - - - -

7 16.5 8.8 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 98.0%

- - - - - -

8 17.0 9.0 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 99.5%

- - - - -

9 18.0 9.2 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 100.0%

- - - -

10 19.0 9.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

- - -

11 20.0 9.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

- -

12 21.0 9.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

-

13 22.0 9.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

SWEF (SEER) 14.12 14.18 14.45 14.76 15.14 15.58 16.04 16.52 17.01 18.00 19.00 20.0 21.0 22.0

SWEF (HSPF) 8.27 8.29 8.39 8.45 8.53 8.62 8.71 8.81 9.00 9.20 9.4 9.7 9.9 9.9



### Table 10.2.9 Single Package Heat Pump : Efficiency Distributions for the Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

CSL SEER HSPF Market Share

Base Case Standards Case

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Baseline 13.0 7.7 32.1%

- - - - - - -

1 13.5 7.9 32.0% 64.1%

- - - - - -

2 14.0 8.1 28.9% 28.9% 93.0%

- - - - -

3 14.5 8.3 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 98.0%

- - - -

4 15.0 8.4 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 100.0%

- - -

5 15.5 8.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

- -

6 16.0 8.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

-

7 16.5 9.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

SWEF (SEER) 13.56 13.72 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.40

SWEF (HSPF) 7.92 7.99 8.12 8.30 8.40 8.60 8.80 9.0010-19 

### 10.2.2.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends

Historical Efficiency Trends

Using the SWEF for the y ear 2016 as a star ting point, DOE developed base

- c ase forecasted efficiency trends based on assumptions regarding future efficiency growth . To estimate SWEFs over the 30 year forecast spanning 2016

– 2045 , DOE reviewed historical SWEF data provided by the Air

- Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) spanning the
years 19 92 to 2009. 1 

### The year 1992 is the year in which the first set of standards for central air conditioner and heat pumps became effective. The year 2006 is the year in which an updated set

of standards became effective. Figure 10.2.7 shows the SWEFs for split system and single package central air conditioners. The figure also presents the linear fit to each product class’ SWEF data series between the years 1993 and 20 02. This time span provides an indication of how future shipment

- weighted efficiencies may change after new standards become effective because the span is during a period where there are no regulatory actions affecting efficiency, i.e., just after new stan dards took effect in 1992 and just after the 2006 standards were issued by DOE in the year 2001. The linear fits have high coefficients of determination, i.e., linear fits provide a good estimate of the SWEF growth rate. Table 10 .2.10 provides a summary of the

SEER

- based SWEF growth rates for each product class.

Figure 10.2.7 Heat Pump Historical SWEFs based on SEER with Linear Fits Split HP

SEER = 0.05802 * year - 104.80028

R 2 = 0.93874

Package HP

SEER = 0.07624 * year - 141.33065

R 2 = 0.89844

9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

YearShipment-Weighted SEER Split HP

Package HP

Linear (Split HP)

Linear (Package HP)10-20 

### Table 10.2.10 Heat Pump SWEF Growth Rates

SWEF Growth Rate

Product Class SEER increase per year

Split System Heat Pumps 0.0580

Single Package Heat Pumps 0.0898



### Base Case Efficiency Trends

Because various market

- pull programs such as Energy Star and utility rebate programs were in existence from 1992 to 2003, the SWEF growth rate evident in the historical data was likely due in part to these market

- pull programs. Any market pull programs in effect during 1992 to 2003 were less effective than the Federal tax credit programs in existence from 2006

- 2007 and 2009

- 2011 as the more recent tax credit programs have resulted in a greater rate of adoption of more efficient products. DOE assumed that m arket pull programs in existence during

1992

- 2003 are more reflective of typical market

- pull effectiveness, i.e., the recent Federal tax credits are seen as extraordinarily aggressive. As a result, DOE applied the SWEF growth rates

in Table 10.2.10 to the base case SWEFs in 2016 to forecast annual SWEFs for the central air conditioner product classes from 2016 to 2045. Application of the SWEF growth rates in this

ma nner assumes that future market

- pull programs will be as effective at increasing product efficiency as the programs in existence from 1992 to 2003.

Standards Case Efficiency Trends

To develop standards case forecasted SWEFs, DOE developed growth trends fo r each candidate standard level that maintained the same per

- unit average total installed cost difference for the year 2016 between the base case and each standards case over the entire forecast period (2016

– 2045). DOE’s approach for developing standards case SWEFs in this manner assumes that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a rate that ensures that the average total installed cost difference between the standards case and

base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. Because the total installed costs versus efficiency relationships for many of the standard levels for each product class demonstrate an increasing cost rate for more efficient products, the SWEF growth rate for many of th e standards cases is lower than the SWEF growth rate for the base case.

For single package heat pumps, DOE observes that the market conditions are somewhat distinct from split system air conditioners as 93 percent of the single package market is

compr ised of low efficiency products of 13 to 14 SEER. In addition, DOE observes that higher efficiency single

- package systems are more expensive relative to the lower efficiency models compared to the general cost structure for split system units. This indica tes that efficiency trends for single

- package systems are likely to be smaller than those for split systems. Nonetheless, DOE modeled the efficiency tren ds for single

- package units the same as it modeled the trends for split systems. While DOE believes tha t this approach is conservative, DOE did not have the data available to calibrate a more precise forecast of efficiency trends for this product class. An overestimate of the efficiency trend will likely lead to an overestimate of equipment costs resulting from a standard for these products. As a result, net consumer benefits from a standard are likely to be higher than the DOE estimate provided in this TSD.10-21 

### Depicting Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Trends

Figure 10.2.8 and Figure 10.2.9 show the base case historical SWEFs, the base case forecasted efficiency trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency trend for split system heat pump SEER and HSPF, respectively. The HSPF

- based SWEFs were derived from the

SEER

- based SWEFs using the SEER and HSPF relationship for split systems presented in

section 10.2.1.1 . Note that for some standards cases, the efficiency trend does not increase past the Max Tech level. The Max Tech level for split systems is 22 SEER and 9.9 HSPF.

Figure 10.2.8 Split System Heat Pump: SEER

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted
Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearSWEF (SEER) Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER

CSL 4: 15 SEER

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER

CSL 6: 16 SEER

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER

CSL 8: 17 SEER

CSL 9: 18 SEER

CSL 10: 19 SEER

CSL 11: 20 SEER

CSL 12: 21 SEER

CSL 13: 22 SEER10-22 

### Figure 10.2.9 Split System Heat Pump: HSPF

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted
Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

Figure 10.2.10 and Figure 10.2.11 show the base case historical SWEFs, the base case forecasted efficiency trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency trend f or single package heat pump SEER and HSPF, respectively. The HSPF

- based SWEFs were derived from

the SEER

- based SWEFs using the SEER and HSPF relationship for single package units presented in section 10.2.2.1. Note that for some standards cases, the effi ciency trend does not increase past the Max Tech level. The Max Tech level for single package units is 16.5 SEER

and 9.0 HSPF. 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearSWEF (HSPF) Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER

CSL 4: 15 SEER

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER

CSL 6: 16 SEER

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER

CSL 8: 17 SEER

CSL 9: 18 SEER

CSL 10: 19 SEER

CSL 11: 20 SEER

CSL 12: 21 SEER

CSL 13: 22 SEER10-23 

### Figure 10.2.10 Single Package Heat Pump: SEER

- based Historical SWEFs and
Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

Figure 10.2.11 S ingle Package Heat Pump: HSPF

- based Historical SWEFs and
Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearSWEF (SEER) Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER

CSL 4: 15 SEER

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER

CSL 6: 16 SEER

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER

6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearSWEF (HSPF) Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER

CSL 4: 15 SEER

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER

CSL 6: 16 SEER

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER10-24 

### 10.2.2.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions

Once DOE developed base case and standards case efficiency trends, it derived a distribution of prod uct efficiencies from the forecasted SWEFs for each year of the analysis period (2016

– 2045) by developing appropriate market shares for the various standard levels.

As specified in Table 10.2.11 and Table 10.2.12 , DOE developed the product efficiency distributions for the year the standard is assumed to become effective (2 016) using a “roll

- up” scenario. For subsequent years (2017

– 2045), DOE assigned the market shares to the standard levels so that the resulting calculated SWEF remained equal to the forecasted SWEF. This assignment was conducted by pulling market shares f rom lower efficiency levels to higher efficiency levels until the calculated SWEF equaled the forecasted value.

Table 10.2.11 and Tabl e 10.2.12 provide examples of forecasted efficiency

distributions

— the specific cases of the forecasted SEER

- based efficiency distributions for the base case (without standards) for split sy stem and single package heat pumps, respectively. The tables also provide the resulting SEER

- based SWEF for each year during the forecast period. The NIA spreadsheet (detailed in Appendix 10

- A) provides the forecasted efficiency distributions for all the standards cases for both split system and single package heat pumps

.10-25 

### Table 10.2.11 Split System Heat Pumps: SEER

- based Base Case Efficiency

Distributions and SWEFs

Year Market Shares by SEER Level

SWEF 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 18 19 20 21 22

2016 13.0% 40.0% 10.0% 13.0% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.12

2017 0.0% 52.1% 10.9% 13.0% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.19

2018 0.0% 38.4% 24.6% 13.0% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.26

2019 0.0% 24.6% 38.4% 13.0% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.32

2020 0.0% 10.7% 52.3% 13.0% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.39

2021 0.0% 0.0% 59.8% 16.2% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.46

2022 0.0% 0.0% 45.8% 30.2% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.53

2023 0.0% 0.0% 31.7% 44.3% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.60

2024 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 58.4% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.67

2025 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 72.6% 11.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.75

2026 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.1% 22.4% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.82

2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.8% 36.7% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.89

2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36.4% 51.1% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.96

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.9% 65.6% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.03

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 80.2% 3.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.11

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 80.2% 10.8% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.18

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.5% 25.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.25

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.8% 40.2% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.33

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35.9% 55.1% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.40

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 70.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.47

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 85.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.55

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 82.0% 14.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.63

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.9% 29.1% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.70

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51.7% 44.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.78

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36.4% 59.6% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.85

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 74.9% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.93

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 90.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.01

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 86.2% 11.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.08

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70.6% 27.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.16

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 54.9% 43.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2410-26 

### Table 10.2.12 Single Package Heat Pumps: SEER

- based Base Case Efficiency

Distributions and SWEFs

Year Market Share by SEER Level

SWEF 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.4

2016 32.1% 32.0% 28.9% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.56

2017 15.0% 49.1% 28.9% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.65

2018 0.0% 62.0% 31.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.74

2019 0.0% 44.7% 48.3% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.82

2020 0.0% 27.4% 65.6% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.91

2021 0.0% 9.9% 83.1% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.00

2022 0.0% 0.0% 85.3% 12.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.08

2023 0.0% 0.0% 67.6% 30.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.17

2024 0.0% 0.0% 49.8% 48.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.26

2025 0.0% 0.0% 31.9% 66.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.35

2026 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 84.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.44

2027 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 93.7% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.53

2028 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75.4% 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.62

2029 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 57.0% 43.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.71

2030 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 38.5% 61.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.81

2031 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 80.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.90

2032 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 98.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.99

2033 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 82.4% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.09

2034 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 63.4% 36.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.18

2035 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44.3% 55.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.28

2036 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.1% 74.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.37

2037 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 94.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.47

2038 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 86.3% 13.7% 0.0% 15.57

2039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.8% 33.2% 0.0% 15.67

2040 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 47.1% 52.9% 0.0% 15.76

2041 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27.3% 72.7% 0.0% 15.86

2042 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 92.7% 0.0% 15.96

2043 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87.3% 12.7% 16.06

2044 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 67.1% 32.9% 16.16

2045 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46.8% 53.2% 16.27



### 10.2.3 Furnaces

10.2.3.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies

For the three product classes of furnace

— non

- weatherized gas, mobile home gas, and

oil

— DOE developed product efficiencies in the base case by assigning equipment to specific efficiency levels for the yea r 2016. In other words, DOE determined the distribution of product10-27 

### efficiencies currently in the marketplace to develop a SEER

- based SWEF for the year 2016. DOE derived its base case efficiency distributions for furnaces on data provided by AHRI detailing the market shares of non

- condensing (80 percent AFUE and less) and condensing (90 percent AFUE and greater) equipment in combination with the range of product offerings in AHRI’s listing of certified furnace equipment. For more details on the derivation of the split system and single package base case efficiencies, refer to chapter 8, LCC and PBP Analysis.

For its determination of standards

- case efficiencies, DOE assumed a “roll

- up” scenario to establish the SWEF for the year that standards are assu med to become effective (i.e., 2016). DOE assumed that product efficiencies in the base case that did not meet the standard under consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. Also, DOE assumed that all product efficiencies in the base ca se that were above the standard under consideration would not

be affected.

Table 10.2.13 through Tab le 10.2.15 present the efficiency distributions and resulting

SWEF for the base case and standards cases for non

- weatherized gas furnaces, mobile home furnaces, and oil furnaces in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). Each table clearly show s how each standards case, under a “roll

- up” scenario, affects the efficiency

distribution. For non

- weatherized gas furnaces, AHRI data were provided to allow DOE to develop national efficiency distributions as well as distributions for the northern and s outhern regions.

Table 10.2.13 Non

- weatherized Gas Furnaces: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

CSL AFUE Market Share

National North South

Base

Case Standards Case Base

Case Standards Case Base

Case Standards Case

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Base 80% 48.1%

- - - - 29.1%

- - - - 75.9%

- - - -

1 90% 10.0% 58.1%

- - - 13.7% 42.8%

- - - 4.4% 80.4%

- - -

2 92% 24.6% 24.6% 82.7%

- - 33.6% 33.6% 76.4%

- - 11.5% 11.5% 91.8%

- -

3 95% 16.9% 16.9% 16.9% 99.6%

- 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 99.4%

- 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 99.7%

-

4 98% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 100.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 100.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 100.0%

SWEF 86.6% 91.4% 92.5% 95.0% 98.0% 89.0% 91.9% 92.7% 95.0% 98.0% 83.1% 90.6% 92.3% 95.0% 98.0%10-28 

### Table 10.2.14 Mobile Home Furnaces: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

CSL AFUE Market Share

Base Case Standards Case

1 2 3

Base 80% 90.5%

- - -

1 90% 2.0% 92.5%

- -

2 92% 4.0% 4.0% 96.5%

-

3 96% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 100.0%

SWEF 81.2% 90.3% 92.1% 96.0%



### Table 10.2.15 Oil Furnaces: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and Standards Cases

in 2016

CSL AFUE Market Share

Base Case Standards Case

1 2 3 4

Base 82% 41.7%

- - - -

1 83% 19.7% 61.4%

- - -

2 84% 5.6% 5.6% 67.0%

- -

3 85% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 99.1%

-

4 97% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 100.0%

SWEF 83.4% 83.8% 84.4% 85.1% 97.0%



### 10.2.3.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends

Historical Efficiency Trends

Using the SWEF for the year 2016 as a starting point, DOE developed base

- case forecasted efficiency trends based on assumptions regarding future efficiency growth. To estimate SWEFs over the 30 year forecast spanning 2016

– 2045, DOE reviewed historical data detailing the market shares of non

- condensing (80 percent AFUE and less) and condensing (90

percen t AFUE and greater) equipment provided by the Air

- Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) spanning the years 1983 to 2009. 1 

### Figure 10.2.12 shows the fraction of condensing equipment for non

- weatherized gas furnaces at the national level and the north and south regions. The f igure also presents the linear fit to the data series for each region between the years 1994 and 2005. DOE used only the data from 1994 to 2005 to factor out the lingering effects of new furnace standards that required compliance in 1992 as well as the eff ects

of market

- pull programs, including Federal tax credits, to promote the purchase of high

efficiency condensing furnaces. The linear fits have relatively high coefficients of determination, i.e., linear fits provide a good estimate of the condensing equ ipment growth rate. Table 10.2.16 provides a summary of the condensing equipment growth rates for each region

.10-29 

### Figure 10.2.12 Non

- weatherized Gas Furnace Historical Fractions of Condensing
Equipment by Region with Linear Fits

Table 10.2.16 Non

- weatherized Gas Furnace Growth Rates for Condensing Equipment

Fractions

Condensing Unit Fraction Growth Rate

Region Fraction increase per year

National 0.0098

North 0.0160

South 0.0063



### Base Case Efficiency Trend

Because various market

- pull programs such as Energy Star and utility rebate programs were in existence from 1994 to 2005, the condensing equipment

- based growth rate evident in the historical data was likely due in part to these market

- pull programs. Any market pull programs in effect during 1994 to 2005 were less effective than the Federal tax credit programs in existence

from 2006

- 2007 and 2009

- 2011 as the more recent tax credit programs have resulted in a greater rate of adoption of more efficient products. DOE assumed that market pull programs in existence during 1994

- 2005 are more reflective of typical market

- pull effectiveness, i.e., the recent Federal tax credits are seen as extraordinarily aggressive. As a re sult, DOE used the condensing equipment

- based growth rates in Table 10.2.10 to estimate AFUE

- based SWEFs for non

National
Frac = 0.0098 * year - 19.42

R 2 = 0.7634

South
Frac = 0.0063 * year - 12.541

R 2 = 0.6394 North
Frac = 0.016 * year - 31.689

R 2 = 0.8416

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

YearFraction Condensing Furnace National

North

South

Linear (National)

Linear (South)

Linear (North)10-30 

### weatherized gas furnaces from 2016 to 2045. Applic ation of the SWEF growth rates in this

manner assumes that future market

- pull programs will be as effective at increasing product efficiency as the programs in existence from 1995 to 2005.

Because DOE did not receive historical efficiency data for mobile home gas and oil furnaces, it used the same condensing equipment

- based growth rate for non

- weatherized gas furnaces to forecast mobile home gas and oil furnace efficiencies.

Standards Case Efficiency Trends

To forecast standards case SWEFs after the year of compliance, rather than use the same efficiency growth rate as the base case, DOE developed growth trends for each candidate standard level that reflect the fact that as efficiency increases, it becomes more expensive (in terms of equipment cost) to mai ntain a constant growth rate. Therefore, DOE assumed that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under a standards case occurs at a rate which ensures that the average total installed cost difference between the standards case and base case over t he entire forecast period is constant. As a result, the average SWEF growth rate for each standards case is lower than the average SWEF growth rate for the base case.

Depicting Base Case and Standards Case Efficiency Trends

Figure 10.2.13 through Figure 10.2.15 show the AFUE

- based base case historical SWEFs, the base case forecasted efficiency trend, and each standards case forecasted efficiency

trend for non

- weatherized gas, mobile home gas, and oi l furnaces , respectively.10-31 

### Figure 10.2.13 Non

- weatherized Gas Furnaces: AFUE

- based Historical SWEFs and
Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

Figure 10.2.14 Mobile Home Furnaces: AFUE

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted
Efficiency Trends for the Base an d Standards Cases 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055

YearSWEF (AFUE) N Base Case

N CSL 1: 90% AFUE

N CSL 2: 92% AFUE

N CSL 3: 95% AFUE

N CSL 4: 98% AFUE

S Base Case

S CSL 1: 90% AFUE

S CSL 2: 92% AFUE

S CSL 3: 95% AFUE

S CSL 4: 98% AFUE

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

YearSWEF (AFUE)

Base Case

CSL 1: 90% AFUE

CSL 2: 92% AFUE

CSL 3: 96% AFUE10-32 

### Figure 10.2.15 Oil Furnaces: AFUE

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency

Trends for the Base and Standards Cases

10.2.3.3 Forecasted Efficiency Distributions

Once DOE developed base case and standards case efficiency trends, it derived a

distributi on of product efficiencies from the forecasted SWEFs for each year of the analysis period (2016

– 2045) by developing appropriate market shares for the various standard levels.

DOE developed the product efficiency distributions for the year the standard is assumed to become effective (2016) using a “roll

- up” scenario. For subsequent years (2017

– 2045), DOE assigned the market shares to the standard levels so that the resulting calculated SWEF remained equal to the forecasted SWEF. This assignment was con ducted by pulling market shares from lower efficiency levels to higher efficiency levels until the calculated SWEF equaled the

forecasted value.

Table 10.2.17 t hrough Table 10.2.19 provide examples of forecasted efficiency

distributions

— the specific cases of the forecasted AFUE

- based efficiency distributions for the

base c ase (without standards) for non

- weatherized gas furnaces, mobile home furnaces, and oil furnaces, respectively. The tables also provide the resulting AFUE

- based SWEF for each year during the forecast period. The NIA spreadsheet (detailed in Appendix 10

- A ) provides the forecasted efficiency distributions for all the standards cases. 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

YearSWEF (AFUE)

Base Case

CSL 1: 83% AFUE

CSL 2: 84% AFUE

CSL 3: 85% AFUE

CSL 4: 97% AFUE10-33 

### Table 10.2.17 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces: AFUE

- based Base Case Efficiency

Distributions and SWEFs

Year National North South

Market Share by AFUE

SWEF Market Share by AFUE

SWEF Market Share by AFUE

SWEF 80 90 92 95 98 80 90 92 95 98 80 90 92 95 98

2016 48.1% 10.0% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 86.56 29.1% 13.7% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 88.96 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.05

201 7 47.0% 11.1% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 86.67 27.1% 15.7% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 89.16 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.08

201 8 45.7% 12.3% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 86.80 25.0% 17.8% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 89.37 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.12

201 9 44.5% 13.5% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 86.92 23.0% 19.8% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 89.57 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.15

202 0 43.3% 14.8% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.04 20.9% 21.9% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 89.78 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.18

2021 42.1% 16.0% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.16 18.9% 23.9% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 89.98 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.22

202 2 40.9% 17.2% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.28 16.8% 26.0% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 90.19 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.25

202 3 39.7% 18.4% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.41 14.8% 28.0% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 90.39 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.28

202 4 38.4% 19.6% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.53 12.7% 30.1% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 90.60 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.32

202 5 37.2% 20.8% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.65 10.7% 32.1% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 90.80 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.35

202 6 36.0% 22.1% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.77 8.6% 34.2% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 91.01 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.38

2027 34.8% 23.3% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 87.89 6.6% 36.2% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 91.21 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.42

202 8 33.6% 24.5% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.02 4.5% 38.3% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 91.42 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.45

202 9 32.3% 25.7% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.14 2.5% 40.3% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 91.62 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.48

203 0 31.1% 26.9% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.26 0.4% 42.4% 33.6% 23.0% 0.6% 91.83 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.52

203 1 29.9% 28.2% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.38 0.0% 34.6% 41.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.03 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.55

203 2 28.7% 29.4% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.50 0.0% 24.4% 52.0% 23.0% 0.6% 92.24 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.58

203 3 27.5% 30.6% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.62 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.62

2034 26.2% 31.8% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.75 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.65

203 5 25.0% 33.0% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.87 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.68

203 6 23.8% 34.2% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 88.99 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.72

203 7 22.6% 35.5% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.11 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.75

203 8 21.4% 36.7% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.23 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.9% 4.4% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.78

203 9 20.2% 37.9% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.36 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.8% 4.5% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.82

2040 18.9% 39.1% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.48 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.5% 4.9% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.85

204 1 17.7% 40.3% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.60 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 75.2% 5.2% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.88

204 2 16.5% 41.6% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.72 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 74.8% 5.5% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.92

204 3 15.3% 42.8% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.84 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 74.5% 5.9% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.95

204 4 14.1% 44.0% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 89.96 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 74.2% 6.2% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 83.98

204 5 12.8% 45.2% 24.6% 16.9% 0.4% 90.09 0.0% 20.6% 55.8% 23.0% 0.6% 92.31 73.8% 6.5% 11.5% 7.9% 0.3% 84.0210-34 

### Table 10.2.18 Mobile Home Furnaces: AFUE

- based Base Case Efficiency Distributions

and SWEFs

Year Market Share by AFUE Level

SWEF 80 90 92 96

2016 90.5% 2.0% 4.0% 3.5% 81.24

2017 90.0% 2.5% 4.0% 3.5% 81.29

2018 89.8% 2.7% 4.0% 3.5% 81.31

2019 89.6% 2.9% 4.0% 3.5% 81.33

2020 89.4% 3.1% 4.0% 3.5% 81.35

2021 89.3% 3.2% 4.0% 3.5% 81.36

2022 89.1% 3.4% 4.0% 3.5% 81.38

2023 88.9% 3.6% 4.0% 3.5% 81.40

2024 88.7% 3.8% 4.0% 3.5% 81.42

2025 88.6% 3.9% 4.0% 3.5% 81.43

2026 88.4% 4.1% 4.0% 3.5% 81.45

2027 88.2% 4.3% 4.0% 3.5% 81.47

2028 88.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 81.49

2029 87.9% 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% 81.50

2030 87.7% 4.8% 4.0% 3.5% 81.52

2031 87.5% 5.0% 4.0% 3.5% 81.54

2032 87.3% 5.1% 4.0% 3.5% 81.56

2033 87.2% 5.3% 4.0% 3.5% 81.57

2034 87.0% 5.5% 4.0% 3.5% 81.59

2035 86.8% 5.7% 4.0% 3.5% 81.61

2036 86.6% 5.8% 4.0% 3.5% 81.63

2037 86.5% 6.0% 4.0% 3.5% 81.64

2038 86.3% 6.2% 4.0% 3.5% 81.66

2039 86.1% 6.4% 4.0% 3.5% 81.68

2040 85.9% 6.5% 4.0% 3.5% 81.70

2041 85.8% 6.7% 4.0% 3.5% 81.71

2042 85.6% 6.9% 4.0% 3.5% 81.73

2043 85.4% 7.1% 4.0% 3.5% 81.75

2044 85.2% 7.2% 4.0% 3.5% 81.77

2045 85.1% 7.4% 4.0% 3.5% 81.7810-35 

### Table 10.2.19 Oil Furnaces: AFUE

- based Base Case Efficiency Distributions and

SWEFs

Year Market Share by AFUE Level

SWEF 82 83 84 85 97

2016 41.7% 19.7% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.41

2017 40.7% 20.7% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.42

2018 39.6% 21.7% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.43

2019 38.6% 22.8% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.44

2020 37.6% 23.8% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.45

2021 36.5% 24.9% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.46

2022 35.5% 25.9% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.47

2023 34.4% 26.9% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.48

2024 33.4% 28.0% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.49

2025 32.4% 29.0% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.50

2026 31.3% 30.1% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.51

2027 30.3% 31.1% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.53

2028 29.2% 32.1% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.54

2029 28.2% 33.2% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.55

2030 27.2% 34.2% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.56

2031 26.1% 35.3% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.57

2032 25.1% 36.3% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.58

2033 24.0% 37.3% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.59

2034 23.0% 38.4% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.60

2035 22.0% 39.4% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.61

2036 20.9% 40.5% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.62

2037 19.9% 41.5% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.63

2038 18.9% 42.5% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.64

2039 17.8% 43.6% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.65

2040 16.8% 44.6% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.66

2041 15.7% 45.7% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.67

2042 14.7% 46.7% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.68

2043 13.7% 47.7% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.69

2044 12.6% 48.8% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.70

2045 11.6% 49.8% 5.6% 32.1% 0.9% 83.7110-36 

### 10.2.4 Standby and Off

- Mode

10.2.4.1 Base Case and Standards Case Efficiencies

For central air conditioner, heat pump, and furnace standby and off

- mode power consumption, DOE developed product efficiencies in the base case by assigning equipment to specific efficiency levels for the year 2016. In other words, DOE determined the distr ibution of product efficiencies currently in the marketplace to develop a standby and off

- mode

- based

SWEF for the year 2016. For more details on the derivation of the split system and single package base case efficiencies, refer to chapter 8, LCC and PBP Analysis.

For its determination of standards

- case SWEFs, DOE assumed a “roll

- up” scenario to establish the SWEF for the year that standards are assumed to become effective (i.e., 2016). DOE assumed that product efficiencies in the base case that did not meet the standard under consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. In addition, DOE assumed that all product efficiencies in the base case that were above the standard under consideration would not

be affected.

Table 10.2.20 through Table 10.2.2 5 present the standby and off

- mode

- based efficiency distributions and resulting SWEF for the base case and standards cases split system central air conditioners, single package central air conditioners, split system and single package heat

pumps, now

- weatherized gas furnaces, oil furnaces, and mobile home f urnaces in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). Each table clearly shows how each standards
case, under a “roll

- up” scenario, affects the efficiency distribution.10-37 

### Table 10.2.20 Off Mode Base

- Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 for Split Syste m

Central Air Conditioners

CSL CAC Type Standby/Off

Mode Market Share *

Watts Base Case Standards Case

by CSL by CSL &
CAC Type 1 2 3

Base Blower Coil 48 60 % 6 %

- - - Coil Only 40 54 %

- - -

1 Blower Coil 36 30 % 1 % 7%

- - Coil Only 28 9 % 63%

- -

2 Blower Coil 30 10 % 3 % 3 % 1 0 %

- Coil Only 22 27 % 27 % 90% 90%

3 Blower Coil** 29 0 % 0 % 0 % 0% 1 0 %

Coil Only*** NA*** 0 % 0 % 0% 0%

SWEF 34.2 27 .0 22.8 22.7

* Refers to share of air conditioners with crankcase heaters.
** Impacts only that fraction of the blower coil market with ECMs; market with PSC motors meeting efficiency level 2 already meet efficiency level 3 off mode power requirements.
*** Coil only equipment are not impacted by efficiency level 3 off mode power requirements.



### Table 10.2.21 Off Mode Base

- Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 for Single Package

Central Air Conditioners

CSL Standby/Off

Mode Market Share *

Watts Base Case Standards Case

1 2 3

Base 48 60 %

- - -

1 36 30 % 9 0 %

- -

2 30 10 % 1 0 % 100 %

-

3** 29 0 % 0% 0% 100 %

SWEF 42.6 35.4 30.0 29.0

* Refers to fraction of air conditioners with crankcase heaters.
** Impacts only that fraction of the market with ECMs; market with PSC motors meeting efficiency level 2 already meet efficiency level 3 off mode power requirements.10-38 

### Table 10.2.22 Off Mode Base

- Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016 for Split System and
Single Package Heat Pumps

CSL Standby/Off

- Mode Market Share *

Watts Base Case Standards Case

1 2

Base 50 5 0 %

- -

1 33 5 0 % 100 %

-

2 ** 32 0 % 0 % 100 %

SWEF 41.5 33.0 32.0

* Refers to fraction of heat pumps with crankcase heaters. ** Impacts only that fraction of the market with ECMs; market with PSC motors meeting efficiency level 1 already
meet efficiency level 2 off mode power requirements.



### Table 10.2.23 Standby Mode and Off Mode Base

- Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016

for Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces

CSL Standby/Off

- Mode Market Share

Watts Base Case Standards Case

1 2

Base 11.0 100 %

- -

1 9.8 0 % 100 %

-

2 9.0 0 % 0 % 100 %

SWEF 11.0 9.8 9.0



### Table 10.2.24 Standby Mode and Off Mode Base

- Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016

for Oil

- Fired Furnaces

CSL Standby/Off

- Mode Market Share

Watts Base Case Standards Case

1 2

Base 12.0 100 %

- -

1 10.8 0 % 100 %

-

2 10.0 0 % 0 % 100 %

SWEF 12.0 10.8 10.010-39 

### Table 10.2.25 Standby Mode and Off Mode Base

- Case Efficiency Distribution in 2016

for Mobile Home Gas Furnaces

CSL Standby/Off

- Mode Market Share

Watts Base Case Standards Case

1 2

Base 11.0 100 %

- -

1 9.8 0 % 100 %

-

2 9.0 0 % 0 % 100 %

SWEF 11.0 9.8 9.0



### 10.2.4.2 Forecasted Efficiency Trends

Due to the lack of historical information on standby and off mode power consumption in central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnace equipment, DOE estimated that distributions of standby and off mode power consumption would remain the same from 2016 u ntil 2045.

10.3 CALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGIONA L ENERGY SAVINGS

This section describes DOE’s calculation of national energy savings (NES) and regional

energy savings (RES) f or central air conditioner s

, heat pumps , and furnaces under various CSLs

or standards cases

. Similar methods are used to c alculat e energy savings for the N ation and for

each of the climate regions that are analyzed separately.

10.3.1 Definition

As the following equation s illustrate , DOE calculates annual NES and RES as the

difference between t wo projections: a base case (without new standards) and a standards case (with new standards). Positive values of NES or RES indicate energy savings (i.e., annual energy consumption ( AEC ) in the standards case is less than AEC in the base case )

. The calculation of annual nation energy savings ( NES y 

### ) and annual regional energy savings ( RES y 

### ) are represented by the following expressions.

std natl base natl y 

### AEC AEC NES

**− −**  

### = _

std reg base reg y 

### AEC AEC REG

**− −**  

### = _



### Cumulative energy savings are the sum over the forecast peri od, which extends from a
standard’s assumed effective date ( 2016 ) , to 30 years after the effective date ( 2045 ) , of the

annual NES and annual RES for each region . This calculation is represented by the following equation s for :10-40 

# ∑

**=** y cum 

### NES NES



# ∑

**=** y cum 

### RES RES

DOE calculated AEC by multiplying the number or stock of a given product (by vintage) by its unit energy consumption (also by vintage). The calculation of the national and each regional AEC is represented by the following equation:



# ∑ **× =**  V V 

### UEC STOCK AEC



### Where:

AEC = annual energy consumption each year for the N ation or region in quadrillion British thermal units (Btus)

— or quads

— summed over vintages of the product stock, STOCK V 

### ;

N

ES y 

### = national annual energy savings (quads );

RES y 

### = regional annual energy savings (quads);

N

ES

cum 

### = national cumulative energy savings (quads);

RES

cum 

### = regional cumulative energy savings (quads);

STOCK V 

### = stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V that surviv e in the year for which DOE calculated annual energy consumption (vintages range from approximately two to approximately 50 years, depending on the retirement function of the product );

UEC V 

### = annual energy consumption per product in kilowatt

- hours (kWh) ; electricity consumption is converted from site energy to source energy (quads) by applying a time

- dependent conversion factor ;
natl
= designates the quantity corresponds to the Nation;

reg = designates the quantity corresponds to a region;

base
= designates the quantity corresponds to the base case;

std = designates the quantity corresponds to the standards case;

y = year in the forecast ( 2016

– 2045 ); and

cum = cumulative over the forecast period ( 2016

– 2045 ); and

V = year in which the product was purchased as a new unit.

The stock of equipment depends on annual shipments and the lifetime of the given product . As described in chapter 9 , DOE projected shipments for the base case and standards

cases.

10.3.2 Inputs to Calculation

T he input s for calculating national and regional energy savings are:

**•** Average annual energy consumption per unit ( UEC ),

**•** s hipments,10-41 

### • e quipment stock ( STOCK V 

### ),

**•** a nnual energy consumption for the Nation or a give region ( AEC ), and

**•** s ite

- to

- source conversion factor ( src_conv ).

10.3.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

- Efficiency

For each product class , DOE presented the per

- unit annual energy consumption as a function of product efficiency in chapter 7

, E nergy U se D etermination

. Because the per

- unit annual energy consumption is directly dependent on efficiency, DOE used the shipment s

weighted energy efficiency ( SWEF) of the base and standards case s presented in section 10.2

, along with the annual energy use data presented in chapters 7 and 8, to esti mate the shipment

weighted average annual per

- unit energy consumption (UEC) under the base and standards cases. The following sections describe DOE’s calculation of the shipment

- weighted average

annual UEC for each product class of central air conditioner

, heat pump s , and furnaces

.

Split System Central Air Conditioner s

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of split system central air conditioner s on data presented in chapter 7

. Table 10.3.1 presents the base case and standards case shipment

weighted annual UEC s in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for replacement and new owner coil

- only installations for t he Nation and the three specific regions (hot

- humid, hot

- dry, and rest

- of

- country

. Table 10.3.2 presents the same UEC data but for coil

only units installed in new construction

. As noted earlier in section 10.2.1, DOE estimated that split system coil

- only new construction units w ould be installed in the same manner as split system blower coil only units. As result, coil

- only new construction units are characterized in the

exact same manner as blower coil. In both tables, UECs are presented for both residential and

commercial inst allations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.3.1 demonstrates how the UECs for replacement and new owner coil

- only installations

for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. Because SWEFs in the base

case and standards case were forecasted to in crease over the forecast period, the corresponding UEC decreases over time. As noted earlier in section 10.2.1.2, DOE’s approach for forecasting standards case SWEFs assumes that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the

standards case can occur only at a rate which ensures that the shipment

- weighted average total

installed cost difference between the standards case and base case ov er the entire forecast period

be held constant. Because the total installed cost versus efficiency relationsh ip for split system

coil

- only central air conditioner s demonstrates an increasing cost rate for more efficient products, the SWEF growth rate for the standards case (CSL 2) is lower than the SWEF growth

rate for the base case. This is evident in Figure 10.3.1 as the gap in the shipment

- weighted UECs

between CSL 2 and the base case decreases over time.10-42 

### Table 10.3.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner , Coil

- Only Unit s, Replacement and

New Owner Market s : Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual
Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

SWEF (SEER) 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00

Annual Energy
Use (kWh/yr) Residential

Nation 2386 2363 2300 2238 2174 2111 2050 2001 1955 1922

Hot

- Humid 3270 3239 3152 3067 2980 2893 2809 2742 2678 2629

Hot

- Dry 2069 2049 1994 1940 1885 1830 1777 1734 1694 1667

Rest

- of

Country 1189 1178 1146 1115 1083 1052 1021 999 978 964

Commercial

Nation 2606 2596 2564 2498 2427 2350 2272 2251 2230 2214

Hot

- Humid 2837 2823 2783 2717 2646 2569 2490 2465 2441 2422

Hot

- Dry 2541 2530 2497 2434 2366 2292 2217 2195 2171 2154

Rest

- of

Country 2289 2282 2263 2197 2125 2048 1969 1954 1940 1929



### Table 10.3.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only Units, New Construction
Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energy
Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.50

Annual
Energy

Use
(kWh/yr) Residential

Nation 2384 2361 2297 2235 2172 2108 2047 1986 1927 1820 1745 1677 1616 1561 1540 1513

Hot

Humid 3270 3238 3151 3066 2979 2892 2808 2724 2644 2497 2392 2298 2213 2136 2106 2066

Hot

Dry 2062 2043 1988 1934 1879 1824 1771 1718 1668 1575 1509 1449 1395 1346 1330 1308

Rest

- of

Country 1185 1173 1142 1111 1079 1048 1018 987 958 905 870 839 810 785 777 766

Commercial

Nation 2610 2599 2567 2502 2430 2353 2275 2247 2218 2161 2119 2077 2036 1994 1978 1955

Hot

Humid 2837 2823 2783 2717 2646 2569 2491 2457 2423 2354 2304 2253 2203 2152 2135 2108

Hot

Dry 2540 2529 2496 2434 2365 2292 2217 2186 2156 2094 2049 2005 1960 1915 1896 1867

Rest

- of

Country 2298 2292 2273 2206 2134 2056 1977 1957 1938 1899 1871 1843 1814 1786 1775 175810-43 

### Figure 10.3.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner , Coil

- Only Units, Replacement and

New Owner Markets : Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual
Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045

Forecast Period

Table 10.3.3 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted annual UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for replacement and new owner

blower coil installations for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot

- humid, hot

- dry, and

rest

- of

- country). Table 10.3.4 presents the same UEC data but for blower coil units installe d as

new construction

. In both tables, UECs are presented for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual UECs cha nge over the forecast period, Figure 10.3.2 demonstrates how the UECs for new construction blower coil installations for the

base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same reasons given above

for coil

- only units, the gap in the shipmen t

- weighted UECs between CSL 2 and the base case

decrease s over time. 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Annual CoolingEnergy Use (kWh/yr)



### Base Case

CSL 210-44 

### Table 10.3.3 Split System Central Air C onditioners, Blower Coil Units: Replacement

and New Ow ner Markets, Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual
Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 14.92 15.01 15.28 15.57 15.89 16.23 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 23.00 24.50

Annual
Energy Use

(kWh/yr) Residential

Nation 2250 2233 2186 2139 2091 2043 1997 1951 1907 1815 1746 1682 1622 1567 1547 1519

Hot

Humid 3077 3053 2988 2924 2859 2793 2731 2667 2607 2482 2386 2296 2213 2137 2107 2067

Hot

- Dry 1961 1946 1905 1864 1823 1781 1741 1700 1662 1582 1521 1465 1413 1364 1348 1327

Rest

- of

Country 1129 1120 1097 1073 1049 1025 1002 979 957 911 879 849 821 796 787 777

Commercial

Nation 2483 2475 2451 2402 2349 2291 2233 2212 2191 2143 2104 2065 2025 1984 1967 1943

Hot

Humid 2714 2704 2675 2625 2571 2513 2453 2428 2403 2346 2303 2258 2213 2167 2146 2115

Hot

- Dry 2429 2421 2396 2349 2297 2242 2186 2163 2139 2087 2041 1993 1945 1895 1881 1860

Rest

- of

Country 2160 2155 2141 2093 2039 1982 1924 1910 1895 1862 1833 1804 1773 1742 1732 1716



### Table 10.3.4 Split S ystem Central Air Conditioners , Blower Coil Units: New

Construction

, Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energy
Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 14.92 15.01 15.28 15.57 15.89 16.23 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 23.00 24.50

Annual
Energy

Use (kWh/yr) Residential

Nation 2242 2224 2177 2130 2083 2035 1989 1943 1899 1808 1739 1675 1616 1561 1540 1513

Hot

Humid 3075 3051 2986 2922 2857 2791 2729 2665 2605 2480 2384 2295 2212 2136 2106 2066

Hot

Dry 1939 1924 1884 1843 1802 1761 1721 1681 1643 1564 1504 1447 1395 1346 1330 1308

Rest

- of

Country 1115 1106 1082 1059 1036 1012 989 966 944 899 867 838 810 785 777 766

Commercial

Nation 2496 2488 2464 2415 2361 2304 2245 2224 2202 2154 2116 2076 2035 1994 1978 1955

Hot

Humid 2715 2704 2674 2625 2571 2514 2455 2429 2404 2346 2299 2251 2202 2152 2135 2108

Hot

Dry 2427 2419 2394 2347 2296 2241 2185 2162 2139 2086 2045 2003 1959 1915 1896 1867

Rest

- of

Country 2198 2193 2178 2129 2074 2016 1956 1942 1927 1894 1868 1841 1814 1786 1775 175810-45 

### Figure 10.3.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units New
Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energy
Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast

Period

Central Air Con ditioners

— Single Package System

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of single package central air conditioner s on data presented in chapter 7

. Table 10.3.5 presents the base case and standards case shipment

weighted annual UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). Unlike split systems, the U ECs for single package systems d o not vary based on the installation (i.e., new construction, replacement, or new owner). In the table below, UECs are presented for both

residential an d commercial installations. Also, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

weighted annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.3.3 demonstrates how the UECs for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same reasons given above for coil

- only and blower coil split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment

- weighted UECs between CSL 2 and the base

case decrease s over time. 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Annual CoolingEnergy Use (kWh/yr) 

### Base Case

CSL 210-46 

### Table 10.3.5 Single Package Central Air Cond itioners: Shipment

- Weighted Average

per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in

2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.29 13.61 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

Annual
Energy

Use (kWh/yr) Resid. Nation 2645 2582 2505 2421 2341 2266 2195 2129

Comm. Nation 2687 2658 2619 2538 2456 2374 2291 2261



### Figure 10.3.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment

- Weighted Average

per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over

the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

Heat Pump s

— Split System

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of split system heat pump s on data presented in chapter 7

. Table 10.3.6 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted

annual space

- cooling and space

- heating UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). The UECs for split system heat pumps do not vary based on the installation (i.e., new construction, replacement, or new owner). In the table below, UECs are presented for

both residential an d commercial installations. Also, the SEER

- based and HSPF

- based SWEFs corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual space

- cooling and space

- heating UECs, respectively, are also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.3.4 and Figure 10.3.5 demonstrate how the space

- cooling and space

- heating UECs

, respectively, for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Annual CoolingEnergy Use (kWh/yr) 

### Base Case

CSL 210-47 

### reasons given above for split system and single package centra l air conditioners, the gap in the shipmen t

- weighted UECs between the CSLs and the base case decrease over time

.

Table 10.3.6 Split System Heat Pump: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual
Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

SWEF
(SEER) 14.12 14.18 14.45 14.76 15.14 15.58 16.04 16.52 17.01 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00

SWEF
(HSPF) 8.27 8.29 8.39 8.45 8.53 8.62 8.71 8.81 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.70 9.90 9.90

Cooling

Annual
Energy

Use (kWh/yr) Residential

Nation 3191 3175 3112 3043 2964 2880 2798 2716 2638 2492 2388 2294 2209 2181

Hot

- Humid 3549 3531 3461 3383 3296 3202 3111 3020 2933 2771 2655 2551 2456 2425

Hot

- Dry 4014 3994 3915 3827 3729 3623 3519 3416 3318 3134 2984 2848 2726 2689

Rest

- of

Country 1423 1416 1388 1357 1322 1284 1247 1211 1176 1111 1073 1038 1007 995

Commercial

Nation 2620 2615 2594 2544 2483 2414 2342 2310 2277 2211 2162 2112 2063 2045

Hot

- Humid 2750 2745 2721 2671 2610 2541 2468 2433 2398 2325 2272 2219 2165 2146

Hot

- Dry 2479 2474 2454 2406 2347 2280 2210 2180 2149 2087 2040 1993 1947 1929

Rest

- of

Country 2138 2135 2124 2074 2014 1945 1873 1852 1830 1787 1754 1722 1689 1677

Heating

Annual
Energy

Use (kWh/yr) Residential

Nation 1874 1872 1858 1844 1828 1815 1799 1785 1765 1741 1717 1692 1674 1664

Hot

- Humid 1657 1655 1642 1630 1611 1598 1583 1570 1551 1529 1508 1485 1468 1460

Hot

- Dry 924 923 915 909 893 885 877 869 858 845 830 815 804 798

Rest

- of

Country 3116 3113 3092 3071 3066 3052 3027 3006 2977 2941 2903 2869 2843 2823

Commercial

Nation 510 510 510 511 514 516 519 515 512 505 500 495 489 488

Hot

- Humid 368 368 368 369 370 371 373 370 367 361 356 352 348 346

Hot

- Dry 181 181 180 181 181 182 183 181 179 176 173 170 168 167

Rest

- of

Country 1215 1215 1213 1219 1226 1234 1243 1236 1230 1217 1208 1199 1189 118610-48 

### Figure 10.3.4 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual
Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the

2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

Figure 10.3.5 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual
Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the

2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

Heat Pumps

— Single Package System 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Annual CoolingEnergy Use (kWh/yr) 

### Base Case

CSL 2

1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Annual HeatingEnergy Use (kWh/yr) 

### Base Case

CSL 210-49 

### DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of split system heat pumps (HPs) on data presented in chapter 7

. Table 10.3.7 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted

annual space

- cooling and space

- heating UECs i n the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards). The UECs for split system heat pumps do not vary based on the installation (i.e., new construction, replacement, or new owner). In the table below, UECs are presented for

both residential and commercial installations. Also, the SEER

- based and HSPF

- based SWEFs corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual space

- cooling and space

- heating UECs, respectively, are also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.3.6 and Figure 10.3.7 demonstrate how the space

- cooling and space

- heating UECs, respectively, for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same reasons given above for split system heat pumps, the gap in th e shipment

- weighted UECs

between the CSL 2 and the base case decrease over time.

Table 10.3.7 Single Package Heat Pump: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit

Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.56 13.72 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

SWEF (HSPF) 8.15 8.18 8.31 8.40 8.50 8.60 8.70 8.80

Cooling Annual
Energy Use (kWh/yr) Resid. Nation 3758 3711 3625 3508 3394 3284 3181 3085

Comm. Nation 2662 2649 2623 2551 2475 2397 2320 2286

Heating Annual
Energy Use (kWh/yr) Resid. Nation 1577 1567 1547 1519 1505 1476 1452 1429

Comm. Nation 359 359 358 360 362 363 365 36210-50 

### Figure 10.3.6 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit
Annual Cooling Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over

the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

Figure 10.3.7 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit
Annual Heating Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 2 over

the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Annual CoolingEnergy Use (kWh/yr) 

### Base Case

CSL 2

1400 1450 1500 1550 1600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Annual HeatingEnergy Use (kWh/yr) 

### Base Case

CSL 210-51 

### DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of non

- weatherized gas furnaces on data presented in chapter 7

. Table 10.3.8 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted annual UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new

construction non

- weatherized gas furnace installations

. Table 10.3.9 presents the same UEC data

bu t for non

- weatherized gas furnaces installed as either replacements or for new owners. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual UECs change over the forecast p eriod, Figure 10.3.8 demonstrates how the UECs, for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1) change over time. For the same reasons given above for coil

- only and blower coil split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment

- weighted UECs between CSL 1 and the base

case decreases over time.

Table 10.3.8 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted
Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards

Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 86.56 91.37 92.53 95.01 98.00

Region

Annual Electricity
Use (kWh/yr) Nation 281 269 266 259 342

Hot

- Humid* 240 224 221 215 279

Hot

- Dry* 145 135 133 129 172

Rest

- of

- Country 330 321 318 311 411

Annual Gas Use
(MMBtu/yr) Nation 33 31 31 30 29

Hot

- Humid* 25 23 23 22 21

Hot

- Dry* 16 14 14 14 13

Rest

- of

- Country 40 38 38 37 36

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to
maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.10-52 

### Table 10.3.9 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets:
Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for

Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 86.56 91.37 92.53 95.01 98.00

Region

Annual Electricity
Use (kWh/yr) Nation 301 291 287 280 370

Hot

- Humid* 266 251 247 241 298

Hot

- Dry* 178 167 164 159 202

Rest

- of

- Country 349 341 338 330 447

Annual Gas Use (MMBtu/yr) Nation 36 34 34 33 31

Hot

- Humid* 27 25 25 24 23

Hot

- Dry* 18 16 16 16 15

Rest

- of

- Country 44 42 42 41 39

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to
maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.



### Figure 10.3.8 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces , New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted
Average per

- Unit An nual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and

CSL 1 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period 29.0 29.5 30.0 30.5 31.0 31.5 32.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Annual HeatingEnergy Use (MMBtu/yr)



### Base Case

CSL 110-53 

### Mobile Home Furnaces

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of mobile home furnaces on data presented in chapter 7

. Table 10.3.10 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted annual UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction non

weatherized gas f urnace installations

. Table 10.3.11 presents the same UEC data but for mobile

home furnaces installed as either replacements or for new owners. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.3.9 demonstrates how the UECs for new construction mobile home furnace

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1 ) change over time. For the same reasons given above for coil

- only and blower coil split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment

- weighted UECs between CSL 1 and the base case decreases over time.

Table 10.3.10 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average

per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in

2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3

SWEF (AFUE) 81.24 90.29 92.14 96.00

Annual Electricity Use
(kWh/yr) Nation 265 244 239 229

Hot

- Humid* 254 234 229 220

Hot

- Dry* 152 140 137 132

Rest

- of

- Country 323 297 291 279

Annual Gas Use (MMBtu/yr) Nation 41 37 36 35

Hot

- Humid* 40 36 35 34

Hot

- Dry* 23 21 21 20

Rest

- of

- Country 50 45 44 42

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to
maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.10-54 

### Table 10.3.11 Mobile Home Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets:
Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energ y Consumption for

Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3

SWEF (AFUE) 81.24 90.29 92.14 96.00

Annual Electricity Use
(kWh/yr) Nation 293 269 264 253

Hot

- Humid* 276 254 249 239

Hot

- Dry* 167 153 150 144

Rest

- of

- Country 358 329 322 310

Annual Gas Use
(MMBtu/yr) Nation 45 41 40 38

Hot

- Humid* 42 38 37 36

Hot

- Dry* 26 23 23 22

Rest

- of

- Country 56 50 49 47

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to
maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.



### Figure 10.3.9 Mo b i le Home Furnaces , New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average

per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 1 over

the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 39.5 40.0 40.5 41.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Annual HeatingEnergy Use (MMBtu/yr)



### Base Case

CSL 110-55 

### Oil Furnaces

DOE based its calculation of the annual UEC of oil furnaces on data presented in chapter

7

. Table 10.3.12 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted annual UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction oil furnace

installations

. Table 10.3.13 presents the same UEC data but for oil furnaces installed as either replacements or for new owners. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

wei ghted annual UEC is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual UECs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.3.10 demonstrates how the UECs for n ew construction oil furnace installations for the

base case and one standards case (CSL 1 ) change over time. For the same reasons given above

for coil

- only and blower coil split system central air conditioners, the gap in the shipment

weighted UECs betwee n CSL 1 and the base case decreases over time.

Table 10.3.12 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit
Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 83.41 83.83 84.44 85.11 97.00

Annual Electricity
Use (kWh/yr) Nation 467 464 461 457 403

Hot

- Humid* 383 382 379 376 331

Hot

- Dry* 384 382 379 376 331

Rest

- of

- Country 475 473 469 466 410

Annual Oil Use (MMBtu/yr) Nation 65 65 64 64 56

Hot

- Humid* 52 52 51 51 45

Hot

- Dry* 52 52 51 51 45

Rest

- of

- Country 66 66 66 65 57

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to
maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.10-56 

### Table 10.3.13 Oil Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

Weighted Average per

- Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 83.41 83.83 84.44 85.11 97.00

Annual Electricity
Use (kWh/yr) Nation 519 517 513 509 448

Hot

- Humid * 400 398 395 392 345

Hot

- Dry * 400 398 395 392 345

Rest

- of

- Country 534 531 527 523 461

Annual Oil Use
(MMBtu/yr) Nation 72 72 72 71 63

Hot

- Humid * 56 55 55 54 48

Hot

- Dry * 55 55 55 54 48

Rest

- of

- Country 75 74 74 73 64

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to
maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.



### Figure 10.3.10 Oil Furnaces , New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit
Annual Energy Consumption for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

10.3.2.2 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

– Standby and Off

- Mode

The following section presents the standby and off

- mode annual energy consumption

results for each product class of central air conditioner

, heat pump s, and furnaces. 65.1 65.2 65.3 65.4 65.5 65.6 65.7 65.8

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Annual HeatingEnergy Use (MMBtu/yr) 

### Base Case

CSL 110-57 

### Central Air Conditioner s

Table 10.3.14 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted annual off

mode UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for split system air conditioners (both coil

- only and blower

- coil units ) and single packa ge central air conditioners.

Table 10.3.14 Central Air Conditioner : Shipment

- Weighted Off

- Mode Average per

Unit Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL Split System Coil

- Only

CAC Split System Blower Coil

CAC Single Package CAC

SWEF (Watts) Annual
Energy Use

(kWh/yr) SWEF (Watts) Annual
Energy Use

(kWh/yr) SWEF (Watts) Annual
Energy Use

(kWh/yr)

1 27.4 13.9 35.4 78.9 35.4 79.6

2 27.4 * 13.9 30.0 76.0 30.0 76.5

3 27.4 * 13.9 29.0 75.9 29.0 76.4

* For coil

- only units, CSL 2 and CSL 3 are identical to CSL 1 because off

- mode power limitations are set by blower coil and packaged systems. Coil

- only units at CSL 1 meet the off

- mode power limits of CSL 2 and CSL 3 for
blower coil and package systems.



### Heat Pumps

Table 10.3.15 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted annual off

mode UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for heat pumps.

Table 10.3.15 Heat Pumps : Shipment

- Weighted Off

- Mode Average per

- Unit Annual
Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL SWEF (Watts ) Split System HP (kWh/yr) Single Package HP (kWh/yr)

1 33.0 19.4 19.5



### 2 32.0 19.3 19.4



### Furnaces

Table 10.3.16 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted annual standby and off

- mode UECs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for

furnaces.10-58 

### Table 10.3.16 Furnaces: Shipment

- Weighted Stand by and Off

- Mode Average per

- Unit
Annual Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL Non

- Weatherized Gas

Furnaces Mobile Home Furnaces Oil Furnaces

SWEF (Watts) Annual
Energy Use

(kWh/yr) SWEF (Watts) Annua l
Energy Use

(kWh/yr) SWEF (Watts) Annual
Energy Use

(kWh/yr)

1 9.8 70.9 9.8 68.2 10.8 74.6

2 9.0 69.1 9.0 67.6 10.0 73.9



### 10.3.2.3 Equipment Stock

The stock of equipment in a ny given year depends on annual shipments and the lifetime

of a given product class

. The NIA model keeps track of the number of units shipped each year

. The lifetime of a unit determines how many units shipped in previous years survive in the given

year. DOE assumes that products have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The probability of survival as a function of years since purchase is termed the survival function.

Refer to c hapter 8 for further details on the survival functions that DOE used in its analysis

.

10.3.2.4 An nual Energy Consumption

For each product class, D OE calculated national annual energy consumption (AEC) and

AECs for each of the climate regions being evaluated separately. A nnual energy consumption is the product of the AEC per unit [also termed the unit energy consumption (UEC)] and the number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for differences in UEC from year to year. The equation for determining annual energy consumption

, presented in section 1 0 .3.1

, is repeated here

.


# ∑ **× =**  V V 

### UEC STOCK AEC



### 10.3.2.5 Site

- to

- Source Energy Conversion Factors

In determining annual energy consumption for the N ation and for each of the climate regions being evaluated separately , DOE initially calculated the annual energy consumption at the site ( i.e. , the energy in kWh consumed at the household or establishment). It then deriv ed primary (source) energy from site energy consumption by applying a conversion factor to account for losses associated with the generation, transmi ssion, and distribution of electricity.

The site

- to

- source conversion factor is a multiplicative factor used for converting site energy consumption into primary or source energy consumption, expressed in quads

. DOE used annual

site

- to

- source conversion fac tors based on the version of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that corresponds to Energy Information Administration ( EIA’s ) Annual Energy Outlook

20 10 ( AEO 20 10 ). 2 

### The factors used are average values , which change over time in response to projected changes in generation sources (the types of power plants projected to provide electricity to the country). DOE assumed that conversion factors remain constant at 203 5 values10-59 

### throughout the rest of forecast period

. Figure 10.3.11 shows the site

- to

- source conversion factors from 2005 to the end of the forecast period ( 2045 )

.

Figure 10.3.11 S ite

- to

- Source Conversion Factors

10.4 C ALCULATING NATIONAL AND REGI O NAL NET PRESENT VALUE

This section describes DOE’s calculation of the national and regional net present value ( NPV ) of costs and savings f or central air conditioner s

, heat pumps , and furnaces under various candidate

standards levels. Calculations we re performed for the Nation and each of the climate regions that are evaluated separately.

10.4.1 Definition

The NPV is the value in the present of a time

- series of costs and savings. The NPV for

the N ation as a whole and the regions evaluated separately is described by the equation:



### PVC PVS NPV

_ 

### =

Where :

PVS = present value of savings in operating cost (including costs for energy, repair, and

maintenance ); and

PVC = present value of increase in total installed cost (including costs for equipm ent and installation).

DOE determined the PVS and PVC accordi ng to the following expressions. 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045Site-to-Source Conversion Factors(Btu/kWh) Hot

- Dry

Hot

- Humid

North

Entire U.S.10-60 

# ∑

y y 

### DF OCS PVS **× =** 



# ∑

y y 

### DF TIC PVC **× =** 



### DOE calculated the total annual savings in operating cost for the Nation as a whole and the regions evaluated separately by multiplying the number or stock of a given product (by vintage) by its per

- unit operating cost savings (also by vintage). DOE calculated the total annual

increase in installed cost for the N ation as a whole and the regions by multiplying the number or

stock of a given product (by vintage) by its per

- unit total installed cost increase (also by vintage).

Total a nnual savings in operating cost and increases in installed cost are calculated using the following equations

. 

# ∑

V V y 

### UOCS STOCK OCS **× =** 



# ∑

V V y 

### UTIC STOCK TIC **× =** 



### Where:

OCS = total annual savings in operating cost each year summed over vintages of the product stock, STOCK V 

### ;
TIC = total annual in crease in installed cost each year summed over vintages of the product stock, STOCK V 

### ;

DF = discount factor in each year ;
STOCK V 

### = stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V that surviv e in the year for which DOE calculated annual energy consumption (vintages range from approximately two to approximately 50 years, depending on the retirement function of the product ) ;
UOCS V 

### = annual per

- unit savings in operating cost ;
UTIC V 

### = annual total per

- unit increase in installed cost ;

V = year in which the product was purchased as a new unit ; and

y = year in the forecast (201 6

– 2045 ).

DOE determined the PVC for each year from the effective date of the standard until 2045

. DOE determined the PVS for each year from the effective date of the standard until the ye ar when units purchased in 2045 retire. DOE calculated costs and savings as the difference between

a standards case and case without new standards (base case ).

DOE calculated a dis count factor from the discount rate (7.0%) and the number of years between the “present” ( 2009 , the year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum over time of the discounted net savings.10-61 

### 10.4.2 Inputs to Calculation

Listed below are t he in puts to DOE’s calculati on of the NPV of costs and savings for the

N ation as a whole and the regions evaluated separately

.

**•** T otal installed cost per unit,

**•** a nnual per

- unit savings in operation cost,

**•** shipments,

**•** equipment stock ( STOCK V 

### ),

**•** t otal annual increases in installed cost ( TIC )

,

**•** t otal annual operating cost ( OCS )

,

**•** d iscount factor (DF )

,

**•** p resent value of costs ( PVC ) , and

**•** p resent value of saving s ( PVS )

.

The total annual increase in installed cost is equal to the annual change in the total per

unit installed cost (difference between base case and standards case) multiplied by the shipments

forecasted for each candidate standards level . As with calculatin g energy savings , DOE did not

use base

- case shipments to calculate total annual installed costs for all of the product classe s

. DOE assumed that consumers who forgo the purchase of a central air conditioner because of standards instead would purchase a room air conditioner, which will cost far less to purchase and operate. DOE used the projected shipmen ts and stock for each candidate standard level to

calculate costs. In the case of heat pumps, DOE assumed that any decrease in shipments caused by standards would result in the purchase of an electric furnace plus central air conditioner . Thus the analysis tracked sales of electric furnaces and central air conditioner s that result from decreases in sales of heat pumps.

The annual operating cost includes energy, repair, and maintenance costs. The total

annual savin gs in operating co s t are equal to the change in the annual operating costs (difference between base case and standards case) per unit multiplied by the shipments forecasted for each

candidate standards level

. As with calculating total annual installed costs, DOE did not

neces sarily use base

- case shipments to calculate savings in operat ing cost

.

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit

- Efficiency

DOE describ ed the total per

- unit installed cost for each product class as a function of product efficiency in c hapter 8, L ife

- C ycle C os t and P ayback P eriod A nalysis . Because the total

per

- unit annual installed cost depend s directly on efficiency, DOE used the shipments

- weight ed efficiencies (SWEFs) for the base and standards case s presented above, combin ed with the total

installed cost pre sented in chapter 8, to estimate the shipment s

- weighted total per

- unit average
annual installed cost under the base and standards cases.

In the preliminary analysis, DOE followed its past practice and assumed that the manufacturer costs and retail price s of products meeting various efficiency levels remain fixed, in real terms, after 2010 (the year for which the engineering analysis estimated costs) and10-62 

### throughout the period of the analysis. As discussed in chapter 8, examination of historical price

data for certain appliances and equipment that have been subject to energy conservation standards indicates that the assumption of constant real prices and costs may, in many cases,

over

- estimate long

- term appliance and equipment price trends.

For the direct final rule, DOE applied the learning rate s described in appendix 8

- J to forecast the prices of furnaces, central air conditioners, and heat pumps sold in each year in the forecast period. The price in each year is a function of the learning rate and the cumulative production of these products forecast in each year. For furnaces, DOE applied the same values to forecast prices for each product class at each considered efficiency level. Similarly, for central air conditioners and heat pumps, DOE applied the same values to forecast prices for each product class at each considered efficiency level. The results presented in this chapter are based on the medium learning rates.

The following sections describe the shipment s

- weighted total per

- unit average annual

installed cost for central air condition ers

, heat pumps , and furnaces

.

Ce ntral Air Conditioner s

— Split System

DOE based its total per

- unit installed cost for split system central air conditioner s on da ta presented in chapter 8. The total ins talled cost includes both the purchase price and installation

cost. DOE based averag e equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall markup values. Based on the relationship between central air conditioner efficiency ( SEER ) and total installed cost prese nted in c hapter 8, Table 10.4.1 and Table 10.4.2 present the

total per

- unit installed cost for split system coil

- only central air conditioner s based on the shipmen ts

- weighted energy factor s ( SWEFs ) that correspond to the base case and each candidate

standard level

. Table 10.4.1 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted total

per

- unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for replacement and new own er installations for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot

humid, hot

- dry, and rest

- of

- country). Table 10.4.2 presents the same total per

- unit installed cost

data but for coil

- only units installed in new construction

. As noted earlier in section 10.2.1, DOE estimated that split system coil

- only new construction units would be installed in the same manner as split system blower coil only units. As result, coil

- only new construction units are

characterized in the exact same manner as blower coil. In both tables, per

- unit total installed

costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed costs change over t he forecast period, Figure 10.4.1 demonstrates how the total installed costs for replacement and new

owner coil

- only installations for the base case and one standa rds case (CSL 2 ) change over time. Because SWEFs in the base case and each standards case were forecasted by DOE to increase over the forecast period, the corresponding total installed cost in creases over time. As noted in
earlier in section 10.2.1.2, DO E’s approach for forecasting standards case SWEFs assumes that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a rate which ensures that the shipment

- weighted average total installed cost difference between the

st andards case and base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. This is evident in Figure 10.4.1 as the gap in the shipment

- weighted total installed c ost between CSL 2 and the10-63 

### base case remains constant until 2020

. But because SWEFs for coil

- only replacement s and new

owner installations are effectively capped at 15 SEER (refer back to section 10.2.1.2), after 2020 the gap between the shipment

- weighted total installed costs for the base case and CSL 2 lessens until the total installed costs are equal.

Table 10.4.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil

- Only Units, Replacement and
New Owner Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total

Installed Cost for Ba se and Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

SWEF (SEER) 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00

Total

Installed Cost (2009$) Nation 2241 2253 2295 2343 2816 3330 3415 3495 3584 3654

Hot

- Humid 2037 2048 2088 2133 2573 3051 3131 3208 3294 3365

Hot

- Dry 2857 2872 2924 2984 3590 4247 4352 4455 4570 4673

Rest

- of

Country 2345 2356 2398 2446 2926 3447 3533 3610 3695 3752



### Table 10.4.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil

- Only Units, New
Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Cost

for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.50

Total

Installed

Cost (2009$) Nation 3325 3341 3391 3442 3499 3564 3631 3705 3781 3941 4068 4200 4340 4485 4544 4634

Hot

Humid 3069 3084 3131 3180 3233 3294 3358 3428 3499 3651 3773 3901 4037 4177 4237 4329

Hot

Dry 4207 4228 4289 4353 4423 4503 4587 4678 4771 4969 5134 5308 5490 5679 5766 5900

Rest

- of

Country 3420 3436 3486 3537 3594 3659 3727 3802 3878 4040 4160 4286 4418 4556 4605 468010-64 

### Figure 10.4.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil

- Only Units, Replacement and

New Owner Markets : Shipment

- Weighted Average Total Installed Cost

for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

Table 10.4.3 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted per

- unit total installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) replacement or

new owner blower coil installations for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot

- humid, hot

dry, and rest

- of

- country). Table 10.4.4 presents the same p e r

- unit total in stalled cost data but for

blower coil units installed in new construction

. In both tables, per

- unit total installed costs are
the same for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted per

- u nit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.2 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction

blower coil installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same reasons given above for coil

- only units, the gap in the shipment

- weighted per

- unit total

installed costs between the CSLs and the base case is maintained over time. 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Total InstalledCosts (2009$)



### Base Case

CSL 210-65 

### Table 10.4.3 Split System Central Air Conditioner s , Blo wer Coil Units Replacement

and New Owner Markets : Shipment

- Weighted Average p er

- Unit Total

I nstalled Cost for Base and Standards Case s in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 14.92 15.01 15.28 15.57 15.89 16.23 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 23.00 24.50

Total

Installed

Cost (2009$) Nation 2694 2704 2734 2765 2800 2839 2880 2925 2971 3082 3186 3299 3421 3551 3584 3636

Hot

Humid 2470 2480 2508 2538 2571 2608 2647 2690 2733 2838 2938 3047 3164 3289 3324 3378

Hot

Dry 3435 3447 3485 3525 3568 3617 3669 3725 3783 3921 4055 4201 4358 4526 4575 4651

Rest

- of

Country 2786 2796 2825 2857 2891 2930 2971 3016 3062 3172 3272 3381 3498 3623 3651 3692



### Table 10.4.4 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units, New

Construction : Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Cost

for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 14.92 15.01 15.28 15.57 15.89 16.23 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 23.00 24.50

Total

Installed

Cost (2009$) Nation 3485 3498 3535 3573 3616 3664 3715 3770 3827 3964 4080 4206 4342 4485 4544 4634

Hot

Humid 3221 3232 3267 3304 3344 3390 3438 3490 3544 3672 3785 3907 4038 4177 4237 4329

Hot

Dry 4407 4422 4469 4517 4569 4629 4692 4760 4830 4998 5150 5315 5492 5679 5766 5900

Rest

- of

Country 3580 3592 3629 3668 3711 3760 3811 3866 3924 4062 4172 4291 4420 4556 4605 468010-66 

### Figure 10.4.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Un its

, New
Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the

Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

Central Air Conditioners

— Single Package

DOE based its total per

- unit installed cost for single package central air conditioners on data presented in chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall markup values. Using the relationship between central air conditioner efficiency ( S EER ) and total installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.5 presents the base

case and standards case shipment

- weighted total per

- unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the

assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction installations for the Nation

. Table

10.4.6 presents the same total per

- unit installed cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In both tables

, per

- unit total installed costs are the same for

both residential and commercial installations. In each table , the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.3 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2 ) change over time. For the same reasons given ab ove for split system central air conditioner s, the gap in the shipment

- weighted

per

- unit total installed costs between CSL 2 and the base case is maintained over time.

Table 10.4.5 Single Package Central Air Conditioners , New Construction : Shipment

Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards

Cases in 2016

Base Candidate Standard Level 

### 3150 3200 3250 3300 3350 3400 3450 3500 3550 3600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Total InstalledCosts (2009$) 

### Base Case

CSL 210-67 Case 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.29 13.61 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

Total Installed Cost (2009$) Nation 3801 3877 3956 4110 4267 4446 4629 4945



### Table 10.4.6 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, Replacement and New Owner
Markets: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Cost for

Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.29 13.61 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

Total Installed Cost (2009$) Nation 2911 2973 3036 3160 3286 3430 3577 3831



### Figure 10.4.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners, New Construction: Shipment

Weighted Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 2 over

the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period 3700 3750 3800 3850 3900 3950 4000 4050

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Total InstalledCosts (2009$) 

### Base Case

CSL 210-68 

### Heat Pump s

— Split System

DOE based its total per

- unit installed cost for split system heat pumps on data presented in chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall markup values. Using the relationship between heat pump efficiency (SEER/HSPF) and total installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.7 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted total per

- unit installed cost s in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction installations for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot

- humid, hot

- dry, and rest

- of

- country). Table 10.4.8 presents the same total per

- unit installed cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In both tables, per

- unit

total installed costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed costs change over the forecast period

, Figure 10.4.4 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) chan ge over time. For the same reasons given above for split system central air conditioner s, the gap in the shipment

- weighted

per

- unit total installed costs between the CSLs and the base case are maintained over time.

Table 10.4.7 Split System Heat Pump s , New Construction : Shipment

- Weighted
Average p er

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in

2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

SWEF
(SEER) 14.12 14.18 14.45 14.76 15.14 15.58 16.04 16.52 17.01 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00

SWEF
(HSPF) 8.27 8.29 8.39 8.45 8.53 8.62 8.71 8.81 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.70 9.90 9.90

Total

Installed

Cost (2009$) Nation 3789 3799 3840 3891 3953 4023 4129 4210 4293 4469 4603 4749 4896 4955

Hot

- Humid 3657 3667 3707 3758 3819 3887 3991 4071 4152 4325 4456 4599 4742 4796

Hot

- Dry 4892 4905 4956 5021 5099 5185 5316 5416 5518 5732 5920 6124 6328 6418

Rest

- of

Country 3919 3929 3969 4019 4080 4148 4253 4333 4414 4589 4718 4856 4996 506510-69 

### Table 10.4.8 Split System Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets:
Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

SWEF
(SEER) 14.12 14.18 14.45 14.76 15.14 15.58 16.04 16.52 17.01 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00

SWEF
(HSPF) 8.27 8.29 8.39 8.45 8.53 8.62 8.71 8.81 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.70 9.90 9.90

Total

Installed

Cost (2009$) Nation 2888 2896 2928 2970 3019 3075 3159 3224 3290 3431 3538 3655 3772 3820

Hot

- Humid 2774 2782 2814 2855 2903 2958 3041 3104 3169 3308 3412 3526 3639 3684

Hot

- Dry 3768 3778 3819 3871 3934 4003 4108 4188 4270 4442 4593 4757 4921 4991

Rest

- of

Country 3027 3034 3066 3107 3155 3210 3293 3357 3422 3561 3665 3777 3889 3945



### Figure 10.4.4 Split System Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted
Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

Heat Pumps

— Sing le Package

DOE based its total per

- unit installed cost for single package heat pumps on da ta presented in chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation

cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall markup values. Using the relationship between heat pump efficiency (SEER /HSPF ) and total installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.9 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted total per

- uni t installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of 3400 3450 3500 3550 3600 3650 3700 3750 3800 3850 3900

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Total InstalledCosts (2009$) 

### Base Case

CSL 210-70 

### new standards) for new construction installations for the Nation

. Table 10.4.10 presents the same total per

- unit installed cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new

owners. In both tables, per

- unit total installed costs are the same for both re sidential and commercial installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed costs change over the

forec ast period, Figure 10.4.5 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2 ) change ove r time. For the same reasons given above for split system central air conditioner s, the gap in the shipment

- weighted

per

- unit total installed costs between CSL 2 and the base case are maintained over time.

Table 10.4.9 Single Package Heat Pumps , New Construction : S hipment

- Weighted
Average per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in

2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.56 13.72 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

SWEF (HSPF) 8.15 8.18 8.31 8.40 8.50 8.60 8.70 8.80

Total Installed Cost (2009$) Nation 4480 4507 4605 4785 4974 5192 5486 5785



### Table 10.4.10 Single Package Heat Pumps, Replacement and New Owner Markets:
Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.56 13.72 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

SWEF (HSPF) 8.15 8.18 8.31 8.40 8.50 8.60 8.70 8.80

Total Installed Cost (2009$) Nation 3368 3390 3468 3612 3764 3939 4174 441410-71 

### Figure 10.4.5 Single Package Heat Pumps, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted
Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces

DOE based its total per

- unit installed cost for non

- weatherized gas furnaces on data presented in chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall markup values. Using the relationship b etween furnace efficiency ( AFUE ) and total installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.11 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted total per

- unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction installations

. Table 10.4.12 presents the same total per

- unit installed cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustra te how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.6 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1 ) change over time. For the same reasons given above for split system central air conditioner s, the gap in the shipment

- weighted

per

- unit total installed costs between CSL 1 and the base case are maintained over time. 4350 4400 4450 4500 4550 4600 4650 4700

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Total InstalledCosts (2009$) 

### Base Case

CSL 210-72 

### Table 10.4.11 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted
Average per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in

2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 86.56 91.37 92.53 95.01 98.00

Total

Installed

Cost (2009$) Nation 2420 2411 2449 2587 2912

Hot

- Humid* 2010 1943 1992 2129 2427

Hot

- Dry* 2592 2617 2686 2855 3252

Rest

- of

- Country 2528 2527 2555 2681 2997

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to
maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.



### Table 10.4.12 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets:
Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 86.56 91.37 92.53 95.01 98.00

Total

Installed

Cost (2009$) Nation 2038 2393 2440 2557 2803

Hot

- Humid* 1491 2018 2062 2183 2426

Hot

- Dry* 1778 2428 2479 2604 2881

Rest

- of

- Country 2329 2549 2578 2688 2926

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.10-73 

### Figure 10.4.6 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted
Average Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

Mobile Home Furnaces

DOE based its total per

- unit installed cost for mobile home furnaces on data presented in chapter 8. The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall markup values. Using the relationship between furnace efficiency ( AFUE ) and total installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.13 presents the base case and standards case shipment

weighted total per

- unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new construction installations

. Table 10.4.14 presents the same total per

- unit installed cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new owners

. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual per

- un it total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.7 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1 ) change over time. For the same reasons given above for split system central air conditioner s, the gap in the sh ipment

- weighted

per

- unit total installed costs between CSL 1 and the base case are maintained over time. $2,000 $2,100 $2,200 $2,300 $2,400 $2,500 $2,600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment WeightedTotal Installed Costs (2009$) 

### Base Case

CSL 110-74 

### Table 10.4.13 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average

per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3

SWEF (AFUE) 81.24 90.29 92.14 96.00

Total

Installed Cost (2009$) Nation 1575 2017 2172 2432

Hot

- Humid* 1422 1846 2002 2260

Hot

- Dry* 1651 2104 2255 2519

Rest

- of

- Country 1631 2079 2234 2494

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to
maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.



### Table 10.4.14 Mobile Home Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets:
Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Total I nstalled Costs for Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3

SWEF (AFUE) 81.24 90.29 92.14 96.00

Total

Installed Cost (2009$) Nation 1456 2115 2345 2649

Hot

- Humid* 1262 1844 2075 2373

Hot

- Dry* 1592 2305 2540 2848

Rest

- of

- Country 1514 2195 2421 2727

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.10-75 

### Figure 10.4.7 Mobile Home Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average

Total Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016

- 2045

Forecast Period

Oil Furnaces

DOE based its total per

- unit installed cost for oil furnaces on data presented in chapter 8.

The total installed cost includes both the purchase price and installation cost. DOE based average equipment prices on average manufacturer costs multiplied by average overall markup values. Using the relationship between furnace efficiency ( AFUE ) and tot al installed cost presented in chapter 8, Table 10.4.15 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted total per

unit installed costs in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for new

construction installations

. Table 10.4.16 presents the same total per

- unit installed cost data but for units installed as either replacements or for new owners. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual p er

- unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.8 demonstrates how the total installed costs for new construction

installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1 ) change over time. For the same reasons given above for split system central air conditioner s, the gap in the shipment

- weighted

per

- unit total installed costs between CSL 1 and the base case are maintained over time. $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,600 $1,700 $1,800 $1,900

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment WeightedTotal Installed Costs (2009$) 

### Base Case

CSL 110-76 

### Table 10.4.15 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit

Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 83.41 83.83 84.44 85.11 97.00

Total

Installed

Cost (2009$) Nation 4579 4671 4652 4637 4646

Hot

- Humid* 3858 3933 3921 3905 4001

Hot

- Dry* 3860 3932 3921 3905 4001

Rest

- of

- Country 4654 4747 4728 4713 4713

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to
maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.



### Table 10.4.16 Oil Furnaces, Replacement and New Owner Markets: Shipment

Weighted Av erage per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and Standards

Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (AFUE) 83.41 83.83 84.44 85.11 97.00

Total

Installed

Cost (2009$) Nation 3128 3186 3350 3521 4828

Hot

- Humid * 2631 2675 2800 2949 4082

Hot

- Dry * 2648 2690 2809 2953 4082

Rest

- of

- Country 3188 3248 3417 3590 4918

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.10-77 

### Figure 10.4.8 Oil Furnaces, New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average Total

Installed Cost for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast

Period

10.4.2.2 Total Installed Cost per Unit

– Standby and Off

- Mode

The following sectio n presents the shipments

- weighted total per

- unit standby and off

mode average annual installed cost for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces.

Central Air Conditioners

Table 10.4.17 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted annual off

mode total installed cost in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for split system air conditione rs (both coil

- only and blower

- coil units ) and single package central air

conditioners. $3,700 $3,900 $4,100 $4,300 $4,500 $4,700 $4,900

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment WeightedTotal Installed Costs (2009$) 

### Base Case

CSL 110-78 

### Table 10.4.17 Central Air Conditioner: Shipment

- Weighted Off

- Mode Average per

Unit Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL Split System Coil

- Only

CAC Split Sys tem Blower Coil

CAC Single Package CAC

SWEF (Watts) Total

Installed

Cost (2009$) SWEF (Watts) Total

Installed

Cost (2009$) SWEF (Watts) Total

Installed

Cost (2009$)

1 27.4 1.8 35.4 22.0 35.4 22.1

2 27.4* 1.8 30.0 27.9 30.0 28.3

3 27.4* 1.8 29.0 28.5 29.0 28.8

* For coil

- only units, CSL 2 and CSL 3 are identical to CSL 1 because off

- mode power limitations are set by blower
coil and packaged systems. Coil

- only units at CSL 1 meet the off

- mode power limits of CSL 2 and CSL 3 for blower coil and package systems.



### Heat Pumps

Table 10.4.18 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted annual off

mode total installed cost in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for heat

pumps.

Table 10.4.18 Heat Pumps: S hipment

- Weighted Off

- Mode Average per

- Unit Total

Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL SWEF (Watts) Split System HP (2009$) Single Package HP (2009$)

1 33.0 28.8 28.9

2 32.0 32.8 32.9



### Furnaces

Table 10.4.19 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted annual standby and off

- mode total installed cost in the year 2016 (the assu med effective date of new standards) for furnaces.

Table 10.4.19 Furnaces: Shipment

- Weighted Standby and Off

- Mode Average per

- Unit

Total Installed Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

CSL Non

- Weatherized Gas

Furnaces Mobile Home Furnaces Oil Furnaces

SWEF (Watts) Total

Installed

Cost (2009$) SWEF (Watts) Total

Installed

Cost (2009$) SWEF (Watts) Total

Installed

Cost (2009$)

1 9.8 3.2 9.8 1.4 10.8 1.1

2 9.0 8.1 9.0 3.5 10.0 2.710-79 

### 10.4.2.3 Annual Operating Cost per Unit

The per

- unit annual operating cost includes costs for energy, repair, and maintenance.

DOE calcul ated the annual savings in cost per unit for the nation as a whole and for the climate regions that were evaluat ed separately.

Annual Energy Costs

DOE determined the per

- unit annual savings in energy c ost s by multiplying the per

- unit annual savings in energy consumption developed for each product class by the appropriate energy price.

For central air conditioner s

, heat pump s , and furnaces , estimates of the per

- unit annual energy consumption for the base case and each standards case were presented in section 10.3.2.1

. As described previously, DOE for ecasted the per

- unit annual energy consumption for the base

case and each standards case for all product classe s by applying a growth trend in efficiency

.

Energy prices and trends in energy prices are described in chapter 8. DOE forecasted energy prices based on EIA’s AEO20 10

. 2



### Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs

DOE described the total per

- unit repair and maintenance costs for each product clas s as a function of product efficiency in c hapter 8 . Because the per

- unit repair and maintenance costs depend directly on efficiency, DOE used the shipments

- weight efficiencies (SWEFs) for the base

and standards cases presented in section 10.2 , combined with the repair and maintenance costs presented in chapter 8, to estimate the shipments

- weighted per

- unit average repair and

maintenance costs under the base and standards cases.

Split System Central Air Conditioners

Based on the relationship between central air conditioner efficiency (SEER) and repair

and maintenance cost s prese nted in chapter 8, Table 10.4.20 presents the base case and standards

case shipment

- weighted per

- unit repair and maintenance costs for coil

- only replacement and new

own er installations in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation

and the three specific regions (hot

- humid, hot

- dry, and rest

- of

- country)

. The per

- unit repair and

maintenance costs are the same for both residential and commer cial installations. Table 10.4.21

presents the same but for new construction installations. As noted earlier in section 10.2.1, DOE estimated that split system coil

- only new construction units would be installed in the same manner as split system blower coil only units. As a result, coil

- only new construction units are

characterized in the exact same manner as blower coil. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit repair and maintenance costs change over the forecast pe riod, Figure 10.4.9 demonstrates how the costs for coil

- only installations for

the base case and one standards case (CSL 2 ) change over time. Because SWEFs in the base case and each standards case were forecasted by DOE to increase over the forecast period, the corresponding repair and maintenance cost s in crease over time. As noted in earlier in section

10.2.1.2, DOE’s approach for forecasting standards case SWEFs assumes that the rate of10-80 

### adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a rate which ensures that the shipment

- weighted average total installed cost difference between the standards

case and base case over the entire forecas t period is held constant. Because the change in repair

and maintenance costs ( as a function of efficiency ) mirrors the change in total installed costs, the repair and maintenance cost difference between the standards case and base case over the entire

fo recast period also remains constant

. This is evident in Figure 10.4.9 as the gap in the shipment

weighted repair and maintenance cost s between CSL 2 and the base c ase remains constant over

time. But because SWEFs for coil

- only replacements are effectively capped at 15 SEER (refer back to section 10.2.1.2), after 2020 the gap between the shipment

- weighted total installed costs

for the base case and CSL 2 lessens unt il the total installed costs are equal.

Table 10.4.20 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil

- Only

, Replacement and New

Owner Units : Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair and

Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

SWEF (SEER) 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00

Repair and

Maintenance Costs (2009$) Nation 130 130 132 134 136 140 143 146 150 153

Hot

- Humid 113 113 115 117 120 123 126 129 133 136

Hot

- Dry 159 159 161 163 166 169 173 177 181 184

Rest

- of

Country 145 145 147 149 152 155 159 162 165 168



### Table 10.4.21 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil

- Only

, New Construction:
Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for

Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 13.80 13.92 14.28 14.67 15.09 15.54 16.00 16.50 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.50

Repair and

Maintenance

Costs (2009$) Nation 128 128 129 131 132 134 135 137 139 143 146 149 152 156 157 160

Hot

Humid 111 112 113 114 115 117 119 120 122 126 129 132 135 139 140 143

Hot

Dry 157 157 159 160 161 163 165 167 169 173 176 180 184 188 189 192

Rest

- of

Country 143 143 144 146 147 149 150 152 154 158 161 164 168 171 172 17410-81 

### Figure 10.4.9 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Coil

- Only Rep lac ement and New

Owner Market s : Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Repair and

Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045

Forecast Period

Table 10.4.22 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted per

- unit repair and maintenance costs for split system central air conditioner blower coil installations in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot

- humid, hot

- dry, and rest

- of

- country). The per

- unit repair and maintenance costs are

the same for both residential and commercial installations as well as new construction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

weighted annual per

- unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted a nnual per

- unit total installed costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.10 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower

co il installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same reasons given above for coil

- only units, the gap in the shipment

- weighted per

- unit repair

and maintenance costs between the standards case and the base case a re maintained over time. $135 $136 $137 $138 $139 $140 $141 $142

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Average Repair andMaintenance Costs (2009$)



### Base Case

CSL 210-82 

### Table 10.4.22 Split System Central Air Conditioners , Blower Coil Units: Shipment

Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and

Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

SWEF (SEER) 14.92 15.01 15.28 15.57 15.89 16.23 16.57 16.95 17.32 18.17 19.09 20.04 21.01 22.00 23.00 24.50

Repair and

Maintenance

Costs (2009$) Nation 128 128 129 131 132 134 135 137 139 143 146 149 152 156 157 160

Hot

Humid 111 112 113 114 115 117 119 120 122 126 129 132 135 139 140 143

Hot

Dry 157 157 159 160 161 163 165 167 169 173 176 180 184 188 189 192

Rest

- of

Country 143 143 144 146 147 149 150 152 154 158 161 164 168 171 172 174



### Figure 10.4.10 Split System Central Air Conditioners, Blower Coil Units : Shipment

Weighted Average Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base

Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

Single Package Central Air Conditioners

Table 10.4.23 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted per

- unit repair and maintenance costs for single package central air conditioner installations in the year 2016 ( the assumed effect ive date of new standards) for the Nation ). The per

- unit repair and

maintenance costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations as well as new construction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF correspondin g to the shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed cost is also provided. $138 $140 $142 $144 $146 $148 $150

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Average Repair andMaintenance Costs (2009$)



### Base Case

CSL 210-83 

### To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.11 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower

coil installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same reasons given above for split system central air conditioner s, the gap in the shipment

weighted per

- unit repair and maintenance costs between the standards case and the base case are

maintained over time.

Table 10.4.23 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment

- Weighted Average

per

- Unit Repair and Maintenance Cost for Base and Standards Cases in

2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.29 13.61 14.02 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

Repair and Maint. Cost (2009$) Nation 126 128 130 133 136 140 144 151



### Figure 10.4.11 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Shipment

- Weighted Average
Annual Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over

the 2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

Split System Heat Pumps

Table 10.4.24 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted per

- unit repair and maintenance costs for split system heat pump installations in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards) for the Nation and the three specific regions (hot

humid, hot

- dry, and rest

- of

- country). The per

- unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for

both residential and commercia l installations as well as new construction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual

per

- unit total installed cost is also provided. $130 $135 $140 $145 $150 $155 $160

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Average Repair andMaintenance Costs (2009$)



### Base Case

CSL 210-84 

### To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- uni t total installed costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.12 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower

coil installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same reasons given above for split system central air conditioner s , the gap in the shipment

weighte d per

- unit repair and maintenance costs between the standards case and the base case are

maintained over time.

Table 10.4.24 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair

and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base

Case Cand idate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

SWEF
(SEER) 14.12 14.18 14.45 14.76 15.14 15.58 16.04 16.52 17.01 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00

SWEF
(HSPF) 8.27 8.29 8.39 8.45 8.53 8.62 8.71 8.81 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.70 9.9 9.9

Repair and

Maint. Cost (2009$) Nation 122 122 123 124 126 127 129 131 133 137 140 143 146 147

Hot

Humid 114 114 115 116 117 119 121 123 124 128 131 134 137 139

Hot

- Dry 158 158 159 160 162 163 166 167 169 173 177 180 184 186

Rest

- of

Country 143 143 144 145 146 148 150 152 154 158 161 164 167 16810-85 

### Figure 10.4.12 Split System Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Repair

and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045

Forecast Period

Single Package Heat Pumps

Table 10.4.25 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted per

- unit repair and maintenance costs for single package heat pump installations in the year 2016 (the

assumed effective date of ne w standards) for the Nation . The per

- unit repair and maintenance

costs are the same for both residential and commercial installations as well as new construction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipme nt

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed costs change over th e forecast period, Figure 10.4.13 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower

coil installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 2) change over time. For the same reasons given above for split system central air conditioner s, the g ap in the shipment

weighted per

- unit repair and maintenance costs between the standards case and the base case is

maintained over time. $118 $120 $122 $124 $126 $128 $130

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Average Repair andMaintenance Costs (2009$)



### Base Case

CSL 210-86 

### Table 10.4.25 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit
Repair and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Ca ses in 2016

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

SWEF (SEER) 13.56 13.72 14.05 14.51 15.00 15.50 16.00 16.50

SWEF (HSPF) 8.15 8.18 8.31 8.40 8.50 8.60 8.70 8.80

Repair and

Maint. Cost (2009$) Nation 123 123 125 128 131 135 140 145



### Figure 10.4.13 Single Package Heat Pumps: Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Repair

and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 2 over the 2016

- 2045

Forecast Period

Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces

Table 10.4.26 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted per

- unit repair and maintenance costs for non

- weatherized gas furnaces in the year 2016 (the assumed

effe ctive date of new standard s)

. The per

- unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for new construction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit repair and maintenance costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.14 demonstrates how the repair and m aintenance costs for

non

- weatherized gas furnace installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1 ) change over time. For the same reasons given above for split system central air conditioner s, the $130 $135 $140 $145 $150 $155 $160

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Average Repair andMaintenance Costs (2009$)



### Base Case

CSL 210-87 

### gap in the shipment

- weighted per

- unit repair and maintenance costs between CSL 1 and the base

case is maintained over time.

Table 10.4.26 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit
Repair and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (SEER) 86.56 91.37 92.53 95.01 98.00

Repair and

Maint. Cost (2009$) Nation 40 40 41 41 41

Hot

- Humid* 38 38 38 38 38

Hot

- Dry* 42 42 43 43 43

Rest

- of

- Country 41 41 41 41 41

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to
maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.



### Figure 10.4.14 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces : Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual
Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the

2016

- 2045 Forecast Period $40.5 $40.5 $40.5 $40.6 $40.6 $40.6 $40.6 $40.6 $40.7

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Average Repair andMaintenance Costs (2009$)



### Base Case

CSL 110-88 

### Mobile Home Furnaces

Table 10.4.27 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted per

- unit repair and maintenan ce costs for mobile home furnace installations in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards)

. The per

- unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for new construction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF

cor responding to the shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4. 15 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for mobile

home furnaces for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1) change over time. For the same reasons given above for split sys tem central air conditioner s, the gap in the shipment

- weighted

per

- unit repair and maintenance costs between the standards case and the base case is maintained

over time.

Table 10.4.27 Mobile Home Furnaces: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair

and Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3

SWEF (SEER) 81.24 90.29 92.14 96.00

Repair and

Maint. Cost (2009$) Nation 42 42 42 42

Hot

- Humid* 42 42 42 42

Hot

- Dry* 42 42 42 42

Rest

- of

- Country 41 42 42 42

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to
maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.10-89 

### Figure 10.4.15 Mobile Home Furnaces : Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Repair and

Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the 2016

- 2045

Forecast Period

Oil Furnaces

Table 10.4.28 presents the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted per

- unit repair and maintenance costs for oil furnace installations in the year 2016 (the assumed effective date of new standards)

. The per

- unit repair and maintenance costs are the same for new construction and replacement/new owner installations. In each table, the SWEF corresponding to the shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed cost is also provided.

To illustrate how shipment

- weighted annual per

- unit total installed costs change over the forecast period, Figure 10.4.16 demonstrates how the repair and maintenance costs for blower

coil installations for the base case and one standards case (CSL 1 ) change over time. For the same reasons given above for split system central air conditioner s, the gap in the shipment

weighted per

- unit repair and maintenance costs betw een the standards case and the base case is

maintained over time. $41.5 $41.5 $41.5 $41.5 $41.6 $41.6 $41.6 $41.6 $41.6 $41.6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Average Repair andMaintenance Costs (2009$)



### Base Case

CSL 110-90 

### Table 10.4.28 Oil Furnaces: Shipment

- Weighted Average per

- Unit Repair and

Maintenance Costs for Base and Standards Cases in 2016

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

SWEF (SEER) 83.41 83.83 84.44 85.11 97.00

Repair and

Maint. Cost (2009$) Nation 63 63 63 63 192

Hot

- Humid* 61 61 61 61 164

Hot

- Dry* 61 61 61 61 164

Rest

- of

- Country 63 63 63 63 196

* Within the NIA model, data inputs for the South region were disaggregated into hot

- humid and hot

- dry regions to
maintain consistency with the treatment of inputs for CAC and HP.



### Figure 10.4.16 Oil Furnaces , New Construction: Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual
Repair and Maintenance Costs for the Base Case and CSL 1 over the

2016

- 2045 Forecast Period

10.4.2.4 Equipment Stock

The stock of equipment in a ny given year depends on annual shipments and the lifetime of a given product class. The NIA model keeps track of the number of units shipped each year

. The lifetime of a unit determines how many units shipped in previous years survive in the given

year. DOE assumes that products have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The probability of survival as a function of years since purchase is termed the survival function. Refer to the specific section fo r each product class in c hapter 9, Shipments Analysis, for further details on the survival functions that DOE used in its analysis

. $63.0 $63.1 $63.1 $63.2 $63.2 $63.3 $63.3

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Shipment Weighted Average Repair andMaintenance Costs (2009$) 

### Base Case

CSL 110-91 

### 10.4.2.5 Increases in T otal Annual Installed Cost

The increase in total annual installed cost for a product under any given stand ards case is the product of the increase in total installed cost per unit attributable to the standard and the number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for differences in total installed cost from year to year. The equation for determining the total annual installed cost increase for a given
candidate standards level, presented in section 10.4.1 is repeated here.



# ∑

V V 

### UTIC STOCK TIC **× =** 



### As noted earlier, when considering heat pumps DOE accounted for the total installed cost for those consumers who decided to switch from a heat pump to an electric furnace plus central

air conditioner because standards increased the cost of new units. There fore, the total annual

increase in installed cost account s for the total installed cost of central air conditioner s purchased in lieu of new heat pumps.

10.4.2.6 Savings in Total Annual Operating Cost

The savings in total annual operating cost for any given candid ate standards level is the product of the annual per

- unit savings in operating cost attributable to the standard and the number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for the year

- to

- year differences in annual operating cost savings. The equation f or determining the total annual savings in operating cost for a given candidate standards level , which was presented in section 10.4.1

, is repeated here.



# ∑

V V 

### UOCS STOCK OCS **× =** 



### As noted earlier, when considering heat pumps DOE accounted for the energy use of

those consumers who decided to switch from a heat pump to an electric furnace and central air

conditioner in response to standards. Therefore, the total annual savings in operating cost

account s for the energy costs of the central air conditioner s purchased in lieu of heat pumps

.

10.4.2.7 Discount Factors

DOE multiplied monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determ ine the present value. T he discount factor (DF) is described by the equation:

) yp y (

_ 

### ) r ( DF

+ 1 1

=



### Where :

r = discount rate,

y = year of the monetary value, and

y

P 

### = year in which the present value is being determined.10-92 

### Although DOE used consumer discount rates to determine the life

- cycle cost of refrigeration products (chapter 8), it used national discount rates to calculate national NPV. DOE estimated NPV using both a 3

- percent and a 7

- percent real discount rate, in accordance with the

Office of Management and Budget’s guidance to Federal agencies on the development of regulatory analysis, particularly section E therein: Identifying and Measuring Benefits and

Costs

. 3



### 10.4.2.8 Present Value of Increased Installed Cost DOE defined the present year as 2009

.

The present va lue of increased installed cost is the difference between installation cost in

each standards case and the base case discounted to the present and summed throughout the period over which DOE is considering the installa tion of units ( from the effective date of
standards, 2016 , to 2045 ).

The increase in total installed cost refers to both the purchase price and installation cost

associated with the more expensive units purchased in the standards case compared to the bas e
case. DOE calculated ann ual increases in installed cost as the difference in total installed cost for new equipment purchased each year, multiplied by the shipments in the standards case.

10.4.2.9 Present Value of Savings

The present value of annual savings in operating cost is the difference between t he base

case and each standards case discounted to the present and summed throughout the period from
the effective date, 2016 , to the time when the last unit installed in 2045 is retired from service.

Savings represent decreases in operating cost (including electricity, repair, and maintenance) associated with the more energy efficient equipment purchased in each standards case compared to the base case. Total annual savings in operating cost are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage that surviv e in a particular year. F or units purchased in 2045

, energy consumption continues until the unit is retired from service

.

10.5 RESULTS OF CALCULATION S

The National Impacts Analysis (N IA) m odel estimates the national energy savings ( NES ) , the regional energy savings (RES), and the net present value ( NPV ) attributable to each

candidate standards level . DOE generated the NES , RES, and NPV results using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, which is accessible on the Internet : ( http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/ appliance_standards/). Details and instructions for using the spreadsheet a re provided in appendix 1 0

- A.10-93 

### 10.5.1 Summary of Input s

Table 10.5.1 summarizes the inputs to the NIA m odel . The inputs were discussed in

sections 1 0 .3.2 (inputs for NES and RES) and 1 0 .4.2 (inputs for the national and regional NPV).

A brief description of the data source or each input also is provided in Table 10.5.1

.

Table 10.5.1 Inputs to Calculat ion s

Input Data Description

Shipments Annual shipments from s hipments m odel ( chapter 9 )

. Effective d ate of s tandard 201 6

. Forecasted e fficiencies for base

case SWEF * determined in the year 2016 for each product class

. Growth trend
applied to SWEF throughout forecast period

, 20 16

– 2045 ( section 1 0 .2)

. Efficiencies for s tandards c ase Growth trends applied to determine SWEF for each standards case and each
product class for 201 6

– 2045 ( s ection 1 0 .2)

. Annual e nergy c onsumption per

u nit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of SWEF ( section 1 0 .3.2.1 )

.

Total i nstalled c ost pe r u nit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of SWEF (s ection 1 0 .4.2.1).

Energy c ost per u nit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of annual energy consumption per unit and energy prices. (See s ection 8.2.3.1 of c hapter 8 for energy prices.)

Repair and m aintenance c ost s

per u nit A nnual weighted

- averag e values are a function of SWEF ( section 10.4.2.3 )

.

Increase in e nergy p rices EIA AEO 20 10 forecasts (to 203 5 ) and extrapolation to 2045 . (See chapter 8.)

Energy s ite

- to

- s ource c onversion Conversion factor , which changes yearly

, is generated by DOE/EIA’s NEMS †

program as a time

- series factor that includes electric generation, transm ission,

and distribution losses

. Discount r ate Three and s even percent real.

Present y ear Future e xpenses are discounted to 2011

.

* SWEF = shipments

- weighted energy factor (efficiency).

† NEMS = National Energy Modeling System. C hapter 13, U tility I mpact A nalysis

, provide s more detail on

NEMS.



### 10.5.2 National and Regional Energy Savings by Candidate Standard Level

- Efficiency

The following sections provide the national energy savings ( NES ) and regional energy savings (RES) that DOE calculated for each of the candidate standard levels (CSLs) analyzed for

c entral air conditioner s

, heat pumps , and furnaces

. R esults , which are cumulative to 2045

, are
shown as primary energy savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA m odel on weighted

- average values, producing results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values such as is genera ted by the life

- cycle cost and payback period analyses

.

For single

- package air conditioners and single

- package heat pumps, DOE has analyzed the regional standards on a national basis because the standard would be identical in each region. Additionally, given the low level of shipments of these products, DOE determined that an analysis of regional standards would not produce significant differences in comparison to a single national standard . DOE made a similar determination for oil

- fired fu rnaces.10-94 

### 10.5.2.1 Central Air C onditioner s

This section provides NES and RES results for the efficiency levels considered for the

two product classes of central air conditioner s (split system and single package )

.

Central Air Conditioner s

— Split System

Table 10.5.2 show the energy savings for the CSL s analyzed for split system central air

conditioner s for the residential and commercial sector. The table shows the breakdown of energy savings for coil

- only units and blower coil units.

Table 10.5.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy Savings from 2016

- 2045 , Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL SEER Nation (quads ) Hot

- Humid ( quads ) Hot

- Dry ( quads ) Rest of Cntry ( quads )

Total* Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total* Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total* Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total* Coil

Only Blower

Coil

1 13.5 0.079 0.063 0.017 0.045 0.036 0.009 0.013 0.010 0.003 0.022 0.017 0.005

2 14 0.343 0.278 0.065 0.191 0.155 0.036 0.055 0.045 0.010 0.097 0.078 0.019

3 14.5 0.668 0.555 0.113 0.366 0.305 0.061 0.107 0.089 0.018 0.195 0.162 0.033

4 15 1.567 1.407 0.161 0.853 0.765 0.088 0.248 0.222 0.026 0.467 0.419 0.047

5 15.5 2.515 2.303 0.212 1.366 1.251 0.115 0.396 0.362 0.034 0.753 0.690 0.062

6 16 4.154 3.893 0.261 2.268 2.126 0.142 0.660 0.618 0.042 1.226 1.149 0.077

7 16.5 4.538 4.228 0.310 2.487 2.317 0.170 0.722 0.672 0.050 1.329 1.238 0.091

8 17 4.821 4.463 0.358 2.649 2.453 0.196 0.767 0.710 0.057 1.405 1.300 0.105

9 18 5.216 4.755 0.460 2.872 2.620 0.252 0.830 0.757 0.073 1.513 1.379 0.135

10 19 5.442 4.904 0.537 3.000 2.704 0.296 0.869 0.783 0.086 1.572 1.417 0.155

11 20 5.651 5.041 0.610 3.118 2.781 0.337 0.905 0.807 0.098 1.628 1.453 0.175

12 21 5.838 5.164 0.674 3.226 2.852 0.374 0.937 0.828 0.109 1.675 1.484 0.191

13 22 5.962 5.247 0.715 3.300 2.901 0.399 0.958 0.842 0.115 1.705 1.504 0.201

14 23 5.989 5.265 0.724 3.316 2.912 0.404 0.962 0.846 0.117 1.710 1.508 0.203

15 24.5 6.006 5.277 0.729 3.327 2.919 0.408 0.965 0.848 0.117 1.714 1.510 0.204



### Central Air Conditioners

— Single Package

Table 10.5.3 show s the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for single package central

air conditioner s for the residential and commercial sector.10-95 

### Table 10.5.3 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Nati onal Energy Savings from 2016

- 2045 , Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL SEER Nation (quads)

1 13.5 0.059



### 2 14.0 0.112



### 3 14.5 0.198



### 4 15.0 0.266



### 5 15.5 0.325



### 6 16.0 0.362



### 7 16.5 0.385



### 10.5.2.2 Heat Pumps

This section provides NES and RES results for the efficiency levels considered for the two product classes of heat pumps (split system and single package).

Heat Pumps

— Split System

Table 10.5.4 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for split system heat pump s
for the residential and commercial sector.

Table 10.5.4 Split System Heat Pumps : Cumulative National and Regional Energy
Saving s from 2016

- 2045 , Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL SEER HSPF Nation (quads) Hot

- Humid (quads) Hot

- Dry (quads) Rest of Country (quads)

1 13.5 8.1 0.076 0.059 0.008 0.009

2 14.0 8.3 0.380 0.294 0.042 0.044

3 14.5 8.4 0.738 0.571 0.081 0.085

4 15.0 8.5 1.139 0.881 0.125 0.133

5 15.5 8.6 1.561 1.205 0.171 0.185

6 16.0 8.7 2.176 1.677 0.237 0.262

7 16.5 8.8 2.637 2.031 0.287 0.319

8 17.0 9.0 3.081 2.371 0.335 0.374

9 18.0 9.2 3.943 3.035 0.427 0.481

10 19.0 9.4 4.524 3.476 0.498 0.551

11 20.0 9.7 4.969 3.809 0.555 0.604

12 21.0 9.9 5.177 3.963 0.582 0.632

13 22.0 9.9 5.197 3.978 0.584 0.636



### Heat Pumps

— Single Package

Table 10.5.5 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for single package heat

pump s for the residential and commercial sector

.10-96 

### Table 10.5.5 Single Package Heat Pumps : Cumulative National Energy Savings from

2016

- 2045 , Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL SEER HSPF Nation (quads)

1 13.5 7.9 0.015



### 2 14.0 8.1 0.063



### 3 14.5 8.3 0.139



### 4 15.0 8.4 0.035



### 5 15.5 8.6 0.257



### 6 16.0 8.8 0.301



### 7 16.5 9.0 0.319



### 10.5.2.3 Furnaces

This section provides NES and RES results for the efficiency levels considered for the three product classes of furnaces.

Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces

Table 10.5.6 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for non

- weatherized gas

furnaces for the Nation and the North and South region

.

Table 10.5.6 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Cumulative National and Regional
Energy Savings from 2016

- 2045

CSL AFUE Nation (quads) North (quad s) South (quads)

1 90% 4.36 1.98 2.39

2 92% 4.79 2.16 2.63

3 95% 5.80 2.76 3.04

4 98% 6.40 3.03 3.37



### Mobile Home Furnaces

Table 10.5.7 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for mobile home furnaces

for the Nation and the North and South region.

Table 10.5.7 Mobile Home Furnaces: Cumulative National and Regional Energy
Savings from 2016

- 2045

CSL AFUE Nation (quads) North (quads) South (quads)

1 90% 0.28 0.18 0.11

2 92% 0.34 0.21 0.13

3 96% 0.43 0.27 0.1610-97 

### Oil Furnaces

Table 10.5.8 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for oil furnaces for the Nation and the North and South region.

Table 10.5.8 Oil Furnaces: Cumulative National and Regional Energy Savings from

2016

- 2045

CSL AFUE Nation (quads) North (quads) South (quads)

1 83% 0.012 0.010 0.002

2 84% 0.034 0.029 0.005

3 85% 0.060 0.052 0.008

4 97% 0.388 0.337 0.051



### 10.5.3 National Energy Savings by Candidate Standard Level

– Standby and Off

- Mode

The following sections provide the standby and off

- mode national energy savings (NES) that DOE calculated for each of the candidate standard levels (CSLs) analyzed for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces. Results, which are cumulative t hrough 2045 , are shown

as pr imary energy savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted

- average values, producing results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values such as is generated by the life

- cycle cost and payback period analyses.

10.5.3.1 Centra l Air Conditioners

Table 10.5.9 shows the off

- mode energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for central air

conditioner s for the residential and commercial sectors. The table shows the breakdown of

energy savings for coil

- only units and blower coil units for split system central air conditioners

.10-98 

### Table 10.5.9 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Off

- Mode National Energy
Savings fro m 2016

- 2045 , Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL Off

- Mode (Watts) Split System CAC Single Package

CAC Coil Only Blower Coil

NES (quads) NES (quads) NES (quads)

1 36 0.066 0.007 0.007

2 30 0.066 0.012 0.011

3 29 0.066 0.012 0.011



### 10.5.3.2 Heat Pumps

Heat Pumps

— Split System

Table 10.5.10 shows the off

- mode energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for heat pumps

for the residential and commercial sectors.

Table 10.5.10 Heat Pumps: Cumulative Off

- Mode National Energy Savings from 2016

- 2045

CSL Off

- Mode (Watts) Split System HP Single Package HP

NES (quads) NES (quads)

1 33 0.030 0.004

2 32 0.031 0.004



### 10.5.3.3 Furnaces

Table 10.5.11 shows the standby and off

- model energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for

furnaces

.

Table 10.5.11 Furnaces: Cumulative Standby and Off

- Mode National Energy Savings

from 2016

- 2045

CSL Non

- Weatherized Gas

Furnaces Mobile Home Furnaces Oil Furnaces

Off

- Mode (Watts) NES
( quads) Off

- Mode (Watts) NES (quads) Off

- Mode (Watts) NES (quads)

1 10 0.059 10 0.001 11 0.000

2 9 0.059 9 0.001 10 0.00010-99 

### 10.5.4 Calculating Annual Cost and Savings

To illustrate the basic inputs to the calculations of net present value (NPV) of costs and savings attributable to proposed standards for central air conditioners and heat pumps

, Figure

10.5.1 show s the non

- discounted annual increases in installed cost and annual savings in operating cost at the national level for CSL 2 for split system coil

- only central air conditioner s

. The figur e also shows net savings, which is the difference between the savings and costs for each year. The annual total installed cost is the increase in the total installed cost for products purchased each year for 2016

– 2045

. The annual savings in operating cost applies to products that

are operating in each year. The NPV is the difference between the cumulative annual discounted savings and the cu mulative annual discounted cost . DOE could create figures like the one below

for e very standards case for all product classes considered.

Figure 10.5.1 Non

- Discounted Annual Increases in Installed Cost and Savings in
Operating Cost for Split System Coil

- Only Central Air Conditioners

, C SL 2

10.5.5 Net Present Value Results by Candidate Standard Level

- Efficiency

The following sections provide results of calculating the net present value (NPV) for each

candidate standard level considered for central air conditioner s

, heat pumps , and furnaces

. Results we re calculated for the nation as a whole and for each of the cli mate regions considered

. - $0.20 - $0.15 - $0.10 - $0.05 $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25

2013 2023 2033 2043Billions of 2009 Dollars

Equipment Cost

Energy Cost Savings

Net Savings10-100 

### Results , which are cumulative

, are shown as the discounted dollar value of the savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA m odel on weighted

- average values, yielding results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values such as produced by the life

- cycle cost and payback period analyse s.

The present value of increased total installed cost is the total annual increase (the difference between the standards case and base case) discounted to the present and summed throughout the period for which DOE forecasted shipments (from the compliance date of
standards, 2016 , to 2045 ).

Savings derive from decreases in ope rating costs related to the energy consumption associated with the higher energy efficiency of equipment purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. Total savings in operating cost s are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage (i.e., the year of manufacture) that surviv e in a particular year. Equipment consumes energy

, and must be maintained throughout its lifetime. For units purchased through 2045 , the operating cost includes energy consumed until the last unit is retired

from service

.

For single

- package air conditioners and single

- package heat pumps, DOE has analyzed the regional standards on a national basis because the standard would be identical i n each region. Additionally, given the low level of shipments of these products, DOE determined that an analysis of regional standards would not produce significant differences in comparison to a single national standard . DOE made a similar determination for oil

- fired furnaces.

10.5.5.1 C entral Air Conditioner s

Th e following sections provide the results of calculating net present value ( NPV ) for the

candidate standard levels DOE analyzed for the two product classes of central air conditioners

, split system and single package

.

Central Air Conditioner s

— Split System

Table 10.5.12 show s the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed for split system c entral air conditioner s for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions evaluated separately (the hot

- humid, hot

- dry, and rest of the Nation). Table

10.5.13 shows the NPVs at a seven percent real discount rate. Each table shows the breakdown

of the NPV for coil

- only units and blower coil units.10-101 

### Table 10.5.12 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National
and Regional NP V Results (3% Discount Rate)

CSL SEER Nation (bill 2009$) Hot

- Humid (bill 2009$) Hot

- Dry ( bill 2009$) Rest of Cntry (bill

2009$

Tota l Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil Tota l Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil

1 13.5 0.26 0.21 0.05 0.20 0.16 0.03 0.14 0.12 0.02

- 0.08

- 0.07

- 0.01

2 14.0 0.93 0.77 0.16 0.76 0.63 0.13 0.53 0.45 0.09

- 0.36

- 0.31

- 0.05

3 14.5 1.61 1.36 0.25 1.35 1.14 0.21 0.95 0.80 0.15

- 0.68

- 0.58

- 0.11

4 15.0

- 21.59

- 21.89 0.30

- 4.46

- 4.75 0.29

- 3.11

- 3.31 0.20

- 14.01

- 13.83

- 0.18

5 15.5

- 46.52

- 46.85 0.33

- 10.69

- 11.05 0.36

- 7.52

- 7.76 0.25

- 28.31

- 28.04

- 0.27

6 16.0

- 54.91

- 55.21 0.30

- 11.46

- 11.87 0.41

- 7.92

- 8.20 0.28

- 35.54

- 35.14

- 0.40

7 16.5

- 57.70

- 57.91 0.22

- 11.86

- 12.30 0.44

- 8.15

- 8.46 0.31

- 37.69

- 37.15

- 0.54

8 17.0

- 59.80

- 59.89 0.09

- 12.17

- 12.64 0.47

- 8.35

- 8.68 0.33

- 39.27

- 38.57

- 0.71

9 18.0

- 62.42

- 62.08

- 0.34

- 12.50

- 12.96 0.47

- 8.57

- 8.91 0.34

- 41.35

- 40.21

- 1.14

10 19.0

- 63.94

- 63.13

- 0.81

- 12.69

- 13.11 0.41

- 8.69

- 9.00 0.31

- 42.56

- 41.02

- 1.53

11 20.0

- 65.83

- 64.43

- 1.40

- 13.03

- 13.34 0.31

- 8.91

- 9.16 0.25

- 43.89

- 41.92

- 1.97

12 21.0

- 67.99

- 65.96

- 2.04

- 13.49

- 13.68 0.19

- 9.23

- 9.40 0.16

- 45.27

- 42.88

- 2.39

13 22.0

- 69.89

- 67.36

- 2.53

- 13.94

- 14.02 0.08

- 9.60

- 9.67 0.08

- 46.35

- 43.67

- 2.68

14 23.0

- 70.41

- 67.77

- 2.64

- 14.09

- 14.14 0.05

- 9.73

- 9.78 0.05

- 46.59

- 43.85

- 2.74

15 24.5

- 70.79

- 68.06

- 2.72

- 14.20

- 14.22 0.03

- 9.83

- 9.86 0.03

- 46.76

- 43.98

- 2.7810-102 

### Table 10.5.13 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative National
and Regional NPV Results (7 % Discount Rate)

CSL SEER Nation (bill 2009$) Hot

- Humid (bill 2009$) Hot

- Dry ( bill 2009$) Rest of Cntry (bill

2009$

Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil

1 13.5 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.01

- 0.09

- 0.08

- 0.01

2 14.0 0.08 0.06 0.02 0.26 0.22 0.04 0.18 0.16 0.03

- 0.36

- 0.31

- 0.04

3 14.5 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.41 0.35 0.06 0.30 0.25 0.04

- 0.64

- 0.56

- 0.08

4 15.0

- 13.02

- 13.02 0.00

- 3.08

- 3.16 0.08

- 2.11

- 2.17 0.05

- 7.83

- 7.70

- 0.13

5 15.5

- 26.59

- 26.55

- 0.03

- 6.66

- 6.75 0.09

- 4.63

- 4.69 0.06

- 15.30

- 15.11

- 0.19

6 16.0

- 31.35

- 31.25

- 0.09

- 7.52

- 7.62 0.10

- 5.15

- 5.22 0.07

- 18.68

- 18.42

- 0.26

7 16.5

- 33.26

- 33.08

- 0.18

- 7.92

- 8.02 0.09

- 5.40

- 5.47 0.07

- 19.94

- 19.60

- 0.34

8 17.0

- 34.75

- 34.47

- 0.29

- 8.25

- 8.33 0.08

- 5.61

- 5.68 0.06

- 20.89

- 20.46

- 0.43

9 18.0

- 36.65

- 36.06

- 0.59

- 8.64

- 8.68 0.04

- 5.88

- 5.92 0.04

- 22.13

- 21.45

- 0.67

10 19.0

- 37.68

- 36.78

- 0.90

- 8.86

- 8.83

- 0.02

- 6.03

- 6.03 0.00

- 22.80

- 21.92

- 0.88

11 20.0

- 38.89

- 37.62

- 1.27

- 9.13

- 9.03

- 0.10

- 6.21

- 6.16

- 0.05

- 23.55

- 22.43

- 1.11

12 21.0

- 40.24

- 38.57

- 1.67

- 9.47

- 9.26

- 0.20

- 6.45

- 6.33

- 0.12

- 24.33

- 22.98

- 1.35

13 22.0

- 41.49

- 39.50

- 2.00

- 9.80

- 9.51

- 0.28

- 6.69

- 6.52

- 0.18

- 25.00

- 23.47

- 1.53

14 23.0

- 41.87

- 39.79

- 2.08

- 9.91

- 9.60

- 0.31

- 6.79

- 6.60

- 0.20

- 25.17

- 23.60

- 1.57

15 24.5

- 42.17

- 40.02

- 2.14

- 10.00

- 9.67

- 0.33

- 6.87

- 6.66

- 0.22

- 25.29

- 23.69

- 1.60



### Central Air Conditioners

— Single Package

Table 10.5.14 shows the NPVs at a three percent and seven percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed for single package central air conditioner s.10-103 

### Table 10.5.14 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Discounted Cumulative

National NPV Results , Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL SEER Nation (bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 13.5

- 0.06

- 0.07

2 14.0

- 0.19

- 0.18

3 14.5

- 0.57

- 0.45

4 15.0

- 1.06

- 0.78

5 15.5

- 1.59

- 1.13

6 16.0

- 2.16

- 1.51

7 16.5

- 2.73

- 1.92



### 10.5.5.2 Heat Pumps

The following sections provide the results of calculating net present value (NPV) based on a discount rate of seven percent for the candidate standard levels DOE analyzed for the two product classes of heat pumps, split system and single package.

Heat Pum ps

— Split System

Table 10.5.15 shows the NPVs for the CSLs analyzed for split system heat pump s for the Nation as a whole and for each of the three climate regions that were evaluated separately (the

hot

- humid, hot

- dry, and rest of the Nation).10-104 

### Table 10.5.15 Split System Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and Regional

NPV Results , Residential and Comme rcial Sector

CSL SEER HSPF Nation (bill 2009$) Hot

- Humid (bill 2009$) Hot

- Dry (bill 2009$) Rest of Country (bill 2009$)

3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate 3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate 3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate 3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate

1 13.5 8.1 0.32 0.10 0.24 0.07 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00

2 14.0 8.3 1.55 0.45 1.15 0.34 0.39 0.13 0.01

- 0.03

3 14.5 8.4 2.86 0.79 2.13 0.61 0.74 0.25

- 0.01

- 0.07

4 15.0 8.5 4.12 1.06 3.09 0.83 1.10 0.37

- 0.07

- 0.15

5 15.5 8.6 5.27 1.24 3.95 0.99 1.45 0.47

- 0.13

- 0.22

6 16.0 8.7 6.72 1.36 5.06 1.12 1.94 0.60

- 0.27

- 0.36

7 16.5 8.8 7.78 1.46 5.88 1.22 2.30 0.71

- 0.39

- 0.47

8 17.0 9.0 8.61 1.46 6.53 1.26 2.63 0.80

- 0.55

- 0.59

9 18.0 9.2 9.67 1.19 7.45 1.15 3.20 0.94

- 0.98

- 0.90

10 19.0 9.4 9.91 0.78 7.72 0.91 3.56 1.01

- 1.37

- 1.14

11 20.0 9.7 9.58 0.13 7.59 0.52 3.77 1.02

- 1.78

- 1.41

12 21.0 9.9 9.12

- 0.44 7.35 0.17 3.82 1.00

- 2.05

- 1.61

13 22.0 9.9 9.05

- 0.53 7.32 0.13 3.82 0.99

- 2.09

- 1.65



### Heat Pumps

— Single Package

Table 10.5.16 show s the NPVs at a three percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed

for single package heat pump s

.

Table 10.5.16 Single Package Heat Pumps: Discounted Cumulative National and
Regio nal NPV Results , Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL SEER HSPF Nation (bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 13.5 7.9 0.00

- 0.01

2 14.0 8.1

- 0.04

- 0.07

3 14.5 8.3

- 0.20

- 0.22

4 15.0 8.4

- 0.38

- 0.22

5 15.5 8.6

- 0.75

- 0.63

6 16.0 8.8

- 1.14

- 0.93

7 16.5 9.0

- 1.33

- 1.09



### 10.5.5.3 Furnaces

This section provides NPV results for the efficiency levels considered for non

weatherized gas furnaces, mobile home furnaces, and oil furnaces.10-105 

### Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces

Table 10.5.17 show s the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for non

- weatherized gas

furnaces for the North and South region.

Table 10.5.17 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces : Cumulative NPV Results for the

Reside ntial Sector

CSL AFUE Nation (bill 2009$) North (bill 2009$) South (bill 2009$)

3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate 3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate 3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate

1 90% 16.72 2.78 9.45 2.35 7.27 0.43

2 92% 18.12 3.00 10.04 2.46 8.08 0.54

3 95% 19.36 2.43 10.98 2.27 8.38 0.15

4 98% 15.77

- 0.69 10.29 1.33 5.48

- 2.02



### Mobile Home Furnaces

Table 10.5.18 shows the NPV for the CSLs analyzed for mobile home furnaces for the North and South region.

Table 10.5.18 Mobile Home Furnaces: NPV Results for the Residential Sector

CSL AFUE Nation (bill 2009$) North (bill 2009$) South (bill 2009$)

3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate 3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate 3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate

1 90% 1.79 0.49 1.12 0.32 0.67 0.17

2 92% 1.96 0.48 1.24 0.33 0.71 0.15

3 96% 2.38 0.55 1.53 0.40 0.85 0.16



### Oil Furnaces

Table 10.5.19 shows the energy savings for the CSLs analyzed for non

- weatherized gas

furnaces for the North and South region.10-106 

### Table 10.5.19 Oil Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the Residential Sector

CSL AFUE Nation (bill 2009$) Nor th (bill 2009$) South (bill 2009$)

3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate 3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate 3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate

1 83% 0.12 0.04 0.10 0.03 0.02 0.01

2 84% 0.31 0.09 0.27 0.08 0.04 0.01

3 85% 0.52 0.14 0.45 0.13 0.07 0.02

4 97% 1.81 0.35 1.61 0.32 0.20 0.03



### 10.5.6 Net Present Value Results by Candidate Standard Level

– Standby and Off

- Mode

The following sections provide results of calculating the standby and off

- mode net present value (NPV) for each candidate standard level considered for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces. Results, which are cumulative, are shown as the disc ounted dollar value of the savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted

- average values, yielding results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values such as produced by the life

- cycle cost and payback period analyses.

10.5.6.1 Central Air Conditioners

Table 10.5.20 and Table 10.5.21 show the of f

- mode NPVs at a three percent and seven

percent real discount rate , respectively for the CSLs analyzed for central air conditioner s for the

residential and commercial sector.

Table 10.5.20 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off

- Mode NPV Results
(3% Discount Rate)

CSL Off

- Mode (Watts) Split System CAC Single Package

CAC Coil Only Blower Coil

NPV (bill 2009$) NPV (bill 2009$) NPV (bill 2009$)

1 36 0.6 4 0.0 7 0.06

2 30 0.6 4 0.0 8 0.0 7

3 29 0.6 4 0.0 8 0.0 710-107 

### Table 10.5.21 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off

- Mode NPV Results

, Residential and Commercial Sector (7% Discount Rate)

CSL Off

- Mode (Watts) Split System CAC Single Package

CAC Coil Only Blower Coil

NPV (bill 2009$) NPV (bill 2009$) NPV (bill 2009$)

1 36 0.2 4 0.0 3 0.02

2 30 0.2 4 0.02 0.0 2

3 29 0.2 4 0.0 2 0.0 2



### 10.5.6.2 Heat Pumps

Table 10.5.22 shows the off

- mode NPVs at a three percent and seven percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed for heat pumps for the residential and commercial sector.

Table 10.5.22 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV

Results , Residential and Commercial Sector

CSL Split System HP (bill 2009$) Single Package HP (bill 2009$)

Off

- Mode (Watts) 3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate Off

- Mode (Watts) 3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate

1 33 0.201 0.065 33 0.025 0.008

2 32 0.078

- 0.002 32 0.010 0.000



### 10.5.6.3 Furnaces

Table 10.5.23 shows the NPVs at a three percent and seven percent real discount rate for the CSLs analyzed for furnaces.

Table 10.5.23 Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the Residential Sector

CSL Non

- Weatherized Ga s

Furnaces (bill 2009$) Mobile Home Furnaces (bill 2009$) Oil Furnaces (bill 2009$)

Off

Mode (Watts) 3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate Off

Mode (Watts) 3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate Off

Mode (Watts) 3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate

1 10 0.167 0.028 10 0.001 0.000 11 0.002 0.000

2 9 0.138

- 0.030 9

- 0.001

- 0.002 10 0.002 0.00010-108 

### 10.5.7 NES and NPV Results by Trial Standard Level

10.5.7.1 Trial Standard Levels for Energy Efficiency

In considering amended standards, DOE created trial standard levels ( TSLs) that combine specific efficiency levels across product classes. DOE analyzed the benefits and burdens of a number of TSLs for the products considered in this rulemaking. A description of each TSL DOE analyzed is provided below. DOE attempted to limit the number of TSLs considered by excluding efficiency levels that do not exhibit significantly different economic and/or engineering characteristics from the efficiency levels already selected as a TSL.

Table 10.5.24 shows the TSLs DOE analyzed for furnaces and central air conditioners and heat pumps. In the table SAC means split system central air conditioners, SHP means split system heat pumps, PAC mean s single package central air conditioners, PHP means single package heat pumps, SDHV means small duct high velocity systems, NWGF means non

weatherized gas furnaces, OF means oil furnaces, and MHF means mobile home furnaces.

TSL 7 consists of the max

- tec h efficiency levels. For split

- system central air conditioners and heat pumps, max

- tech levels vary by capacity (tonnage) and, in the case of air conditioners, the type of unit (i.e., coil

- only or blower

- coil). Specifically, for split

- system central air

co nditioners, the max

- tech level of 22 SEER pertains only to 3

- ton blower

- coil units. The max

tech levels for the other tonnages and unit types are: 24.5 SEER for 2

- ton, blower

- coil; 18 SEER

for 5

- ton, blower

- coil and 2

- ton, coil

- only; 17 SEER for 3

- ton, co il

- only; and 16 SEER for 5

- ton,

coil

- only. For split

- system heat pumps, the max

- tech level of 20 SEER / 9.9 HSPF pertains only

to 3

- ton units. The max

- tech levels for the other tonnages are: 22 SEER / 9.9 HSPF for 2

- ton;

and 17 SEER / 9.0 HSPF for 5

- ton.

TSL 6 consists of a cooling efficiency level of 15 SEER for all central air conditioner and heat pump product classes with the exception of specifying a cooling efficiency level of 14 SEER for split

- system central air conditioners in the “rest of country” region (i.e., the North) and SDHV systems. For furnaces, TSL 6 consists of efficiency levels for each product class which

are one level below the max

- tech level.

TSL 5 consists of cooling efficiency levels for each central air conditioner and heat pump product class which are one level below the efficiencies in TSL 6. This corresponds to a cooling efficiency level of 14 SEER for all product classes with the exception of specifying a cooling efficiency at the baseline level (13 SEER) for split

- system cen tral air conditioners in the “rest of country” region (i.e., the North) and SDHV systems. For furnaces, TSL 5 consists of the same efficiency levels as TSL 6 (i.e., each product class has an efficiency level which is one level

below the max

- tech level).

TSL 4 consists of the efficiency levels included in the consensus agreement, including accelerated compliance dates (i.e., by 3 years for furnaces and 1.5 years for central air conditioners and heat pumps) and requirements for a second metric (EER) applic able to split

-10-109 

### system air conditioners and packaged air conditioners in the hot

- dry region. For SDHV systems, TSL 4 consists of the baseline efficiency level.

TSL 3 consists of the same efficiency levels as specified in TSL 4, except with a lead

time for compliance of five years after the final rule publication, and no EER requirements for split system air conditioners and packaged air conditioners in the hot

- dry region. TSL 2 consists of the efficiency levels within each region that correspond to those pr oducts which currently have the largest market share. TSL 1 refers to a single national standard and consists of the efficiency levels in each product class with the largest market share. For SDHV systems, TSLs 1,
2, and 3 consist of the baseline efficienc y level.10-110 

### Table 10.5.24 Trial Standard Levels for Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps and

Furnaces (Energy Efficiency)

SAC SHP PAC PHP SDHV NWGF OF MHF

TSL Region Applicable SEER SEER/HSPF SEER SEER/HSPF SEER/HSPF AFUE AFUE AFUE

7 Rest of Country* 22** 20 / 9.9 † 16.5 16.5 / 9.0 14.5 / 8.6 98% 97% 96%

North (Furnace) 98% 96%

Hot Humid (CAC

- HP) 22** 20 / 9.9 † 16.5 16.5 / 9.0 14.5 / 8.6

Hot Dry (CAC

- HP) 22** 20 / 9.9 † 16.5 16.5 / 9.0 14.5 / 8.6

6 Rest of Country* 14 15 / 8.5 15 15 / 8.4 14 / 8.5 80% 85% 80%

North (Furnace) 95% 96%

Hot Humid (CAC

- HP) 15 15 / 8.5 15 15 / 8.4 14 / 8.5

Hot Dry (CAC

- HP) 15 15 / 8.5 15 15 / 8.4 14 / 8.5

5 Rest of Country* 13 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7 80% 85% 80%

North (Furnace) 95% 96%

Hot Humid (CAC

- HP) 14 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7

Hot Dry (CAC

- HP) 14 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7

4 †† Rest of Country* 13 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7 80% 83% 80%

North (Furnace) 90% 90%

Hot Humid (CAC

- HP) 14 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7

Hot Dry (CAC

- HP) 14 /

12.2 &

11.7 EER 14 / 8.2 14 /

11 EER 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7

3 Rest of Country* 13 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7 80% 83 % 80%

North (Furnace) 90% 90%

Hot Humid (CAC

- HP) 14 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7

Hot Dry (CAC

- HP) 14 14 / 8.2 14 14 / 8.0 13 / 7.7

2 Rest of Country* 13.5 13.5 / 8.1 13 13 / 7.7 13 / 7.7 80% 82 % 80%

North (Furnace) 92% 80%

Hot Humid (CAC

- HP) 13.5 ‡ 13.5 / 8.1 ‡ 13 ‡ 13 / 7.7 ‡ 13 / 7.7

Hot Dry (CAC

- HP) 13.5 ‡ 13.5 / 8.1 ‡ 13 ‡ 13 / 7.7 ‡ 13 / 7.7

1 Nation 13.5 13.5 / 8.1 13 13 / 7.7 13 / 7.7 80% 82% 80%

* The values presented under “Rest of Country” are the national standards, but they effectively apply to those States not subject to regional standards. Rest of Country refers to the Northern region for air conditioners and heat pumps
and to the Southern region for NWGF and MHF. For OF, the value refers to the entire Nation.

** Max

- tech of 22 SEER pertains to 3

- ton blower

- coil units only, which is the most common cooling capacity of
products on the market. Max

- tech efficiencies vary by tonnage and type. See chapter 5 of the TSD for more

information on the max

- tech efficiency levels.

† Max

- tech of 20 SEER / 9.9 HSPF pertains to 3

- ton units only, which is the most common cooling capacity of products on the market. Max

- tech efficiencies vary by tonnage. See chapter 5 of the TSD for more information on

the max

- tech efficiency levels.

†† Compliance date is 1/1/2015 for central air conditioners and heat pumps and 5/1/2013 for furnaces. For SAC, TSL 4 has separate EER levels based on capacity (see section III.B.2).

‡ Largest market share unknown; assumed to be equal to the market share for entire Nation.



### In estimating national energy savings and the NPV of consumer benefits, for TSLs 2, 3, and 4, DOE calculated a range of results that reflect alternative assumptions with respect to how

the market for non

- weatherized and mobile home furnaces will respond to a standard at 90

- percent or 92

- percent AFUE. DOE believes that the response of the market to a standard at either of these efficiency levels is sufficiently uncertain that it is reasonable to use a range to represent10-111 

### the expected impacts. The low end of t he range reflects the approach to forecasting standards

case efficiency distributions described above . With this approach, the part of the market that was below the amended standard level rolls up to the amended standard level in the year of compliance, an d some fraction of shipments remains above the minimum. The high end of the range reflects the possibility that, under an amended standard that requires a minimum AFUE of 90 percent or 92 percent, the entire market will shift to 95 percent because the addi tional
installed cost, relative to 90

- percent or 92

- percent AFUE, is minimal. In both cases, the approach to forecasting the change in efficiency in the years after the year of compliance is the same. Results reported below at TSLs 2a, 3a, and 4a represen t the low end of the range for forecasting

standards

- case efficiency distributions while TSLs 2b, 3b, and 4b represent the high end of the range for forecasting standards

- case efficiency distributions

,

10.5.7.2 Trial Standard Levels for Standby and Off

- Mode Power

Table 10.5.25 presents the TSLs and the corresponding product class efficiency levels (expressed in watts) that DOE considered for furnace, central air conditioner, and heat pump standby mode and off mode power consumption. For the central air conditioner product classes, DOE considered three efficiency levels, while for the heat pump and furnace product classes, two efficiency level s were considered.

TSL 3 consists of the max

- tech efficiency levels. For the central air conditioner product
classes, the max

- tech level is efficiency level 3, which specifies a maximum off mode power consumption of 29 watts. For the heat pump and fu rnace product classes, the max

- tech level is efficiency level 2, which specifies a maximum standby mode and off mode power consumption of 9 watts for gas furnaces and 10 watts for oil furnaces, and a maximum off mode power consumption of 32 watts for heat pumps.

TSL 2 represents the efficiency level from each product class that is just below the max

tech efficiency level. TSL 2 consists of efficiency level 2 for the central air conditioner product classes, which specifies a maximum off mode power consumpt ion of 30 watts. For the heat pump and furnace product classes, TSL 2 consists of efficiency level 1, which specifies a maximum standby mode and off mode power consumption of 10 watts for gas furnaces and 11
watts for oil furnaces, and a maximum off mode power consumption of 33 watts for heat pumps.

TSL 1 consists of efficiency level 1 for all product classes. TSL 1 consists of efficiency level 1 for the central air conditioner product classes, which specifies a maximum off mode power consumption of 3 6 watts. For the heat pump and furnace product classes, it consists of efficiency level 1, which specifies a maximum standby mode and off mode power consumption of 10 watts for gas furnaces and 11 watts for oil furnaces, and a maximum off mode power

consum ption of 33 watts for heat pumps. Because the heat pump and furnace product classes have only two considered efficiency levels, TSL 1 for these classes is no different than TSL 2.10-112 

### Table 10.5.25 Trial Standard Levels for Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps, and

Fur naces (Standby Mode and Off Mode Power)

TSL SCAC SHP PAC PHP SDHV NWGF OF MHF

Efficiency Level (Watts)

3 

### 29 32 29 32 29 9 10 9

2 

### 30 33 30 33 30 10 11 10

1 

### 36 33 36 33 36 10 11 10

10.5.7.3 NES Results by Trial Standard Level

- Efficiency

The following section presents the cumulative national energy savings in 201 6

- 2045 associated with standards at the considered TSLs for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and

furnaces.

Central Air Conditioners

— Split System

Table 10.5.26 show s the national energy savings for the T SLs analyzed for split system

central air conditioner s for the residential and commercial sector. The shows the breakdown of

the NES for coil

- only units and blower coil units.

Table 10.5.26 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NES Results

from 2016

- 2045 , Residential and Commercial Sector

TSL Nation (quads) Hot

- Humid (quads) Hot

- Dry ( quads) Res t of Cntry (quads)

Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil

1 0.090 0.071 0.019

- - - - - - - - -

2a

- - - 0.045 0.036 0.009 0.013 0.010 0.003 0.022 0.017 0.005

2b

- - - 0.045 0.036 0.009 0.013 0.010 0.003 0.022 0.017 0.005

3a

- - - 0.191 0.155 0.036 0.055 0.045 0.010

- 0.002

- 0.002 0.000

3b

- - - 0.191 0.155 0.036 0.055 0.045 0.010

- 0.002

- 0.002 0.000

4a

- - - 0.218 0.181 0.038 0.063 0.052 0.011

- 0.002

- 0.002 0.000

4b

- - - 0.218 0.181 0.038 0.063 0.052 0.011

- 0.002

- 0.002 0.000

5

- - - 0.191 0.155 0.036 0.055 0.045 0.010

- 0.002

- 0.002 0.000

6

- - - 0.863 0.776 0.088 0.250 0.225 0.026 0.095 0.076 0.019

7

- - - 3.327 2.919 0.408 0.965 0.848 0.117 1.714 1.510 0.204



### Central Air Conditioners

— Single Package

Table 10.5.27 show s the national energy savings for the T SLs analyzed for single package central air conditioners for the residential and commercial sector.10-113 

### Table 10.5.27 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results from 2016

- 2045 , Residential and Commercial Sector

TSL Nation (quads)

1 0.000



### 2a 0.000



### 2b 0.000



### 3a 0.112



### 3b 0.112



### 4a 0.121



### 4b 0.121



### 5 0.112



### 6 0.267



### 7 0.385



### Split System Heat Pumps

Table 10.5.28 show s the national energy savings for the T SLs analyzed for split system heat pumps for the residential and commercial sector.

Table 10.5.28 Split System Heat Pumps : Cumulative National Energy Savings Results

from 2016

- 2045 , Residential and Commercial Sector

TSL Nation (quads) Hot

- Humid (quads) Hot

- Dry (quads) Rest of Country (quads)

1 0.088

- - -

2a

- 0.059 0.008 0.009

2b

- 0.059 0.008 0.009

3a

- 0.294 0.042 0.051

3b

- 0.294 0.042 0.051

4a

- 0.309 0.044 0.054

4b

- 0.310 0.044 0.053

5

- 0.294 0.042 0.051

6

- 0.882 0.125 0.140

7

- 3.978 0.584 0.636



### Heat Pumps

— Single Package

Table 10.5.29 show s the national energy savings for the T SLs analyzed for single package heat pumps for the residential and commercial sector.10-114 

### Table 10.5.29 Single Package Heat Pumps : Cumulative National Energy Savin gs

Results from 2016

- 2045 , Residential and Commercial Sector

TSL Nation (quads)

1 0.000



### 2a 0.000



### 2b 0.000



### 3a 0.064



### 3b 0.064



### 4a 0.069



### 4b 0.069



### 5 0.064



### 6 0.205



### 7 0.323



### Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces

Table 10.5.30 shows the national and regional energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for

non

- weatherized gas furnaces.

Table 10.5.30 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces : Cumulative National Energy Savings

Results from 2016

- 2045 for the Residential Sector

TSL Nation (quads) North (quads) South (quads)

1 0.00

- -

2a

- 2.16 0.00

2b

- 2.76 0.00

3a

- 1.98 0.00

3b

- 2.76 0.00

4a

- 2.12 0.00

4b

- 3.04 0.00

5

- 2.76 0.00

6

- 2.76 0.00

7

- 3.05 3.40



### Mobile Home Furnaces

Table 10.5.31 shows the national and regional energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for

mobile home furnaces.10-115 

### Table 10.5.31 Mobile Home Furnaces: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results

from 2016

- 2045 for the Residential Sector

TSL Nation (quads) North (quads) South (quads)

1 0.00

- -

2a

- 0.00 0.00

2b

- 0.00 0.00

3a

- 0.18 0.00

3b

- 0.27 0.00

4a

- 0.19 0.00

4b

- 0.30 0.00

5

- 0.27 0.00

6

- 0.27 0.00

7

- 0.27 0.16



### Oil Furnaces

Table 10.5.32 shows the national and regional energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for

oil furnaces.

Table 10.5.32 Oil Furnaces: Cumulative National Energy Saving s Results from 2016

- 2045 for the Residential Sector

TSL Nation (quads) North (quads) South (quads)

1 0.00

- -

2a

- 0.00 0.00

2b

- 0.00 0.00

3a

- 0.01 0.00

3b

- 0.01 0.00

4a

- 0.01 0.00

4b

- 0.01 0.00

5

- 0.05 0.01

6

- 0.05 0.01

7

- 0.34 0.05



### 10.5.7.4 NES Results by Trial Standard Level

– Standby and Off

- Mode

The following section presents the standby and off

- mode national energy savings associated with the standards at the considered TSLs for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and

furnaces.10-116 

### Central Air Conditioners

Table 10.5.33 shows the off

- mode energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for central air

conditioners for the residential and commer cial sectors. The table shows the breakdown of energy savings for coil

- only units and blower coil units for split system central air conditioners.

Table 10.5.33 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Off

- Mode National Energy
Savings from 2016

- 2045 , Residential and Comm ercial Sector

TSL Split System CAC (quads) Single Package CAC (quads) Coil Only Blower Coil

1 0.066 0.007 0.007

2 0.066 0.007 0.007

3 0.066 0.007 0.007

Heat Pumps

Table 10.5.34 shows the off

- mode energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for heat pumps

for the residential and commercial sectors.

Table 10.5.34 Heat Pumps: Cumulative Off

- Mode National Energy Savings from 2016

- 2045

TS L Split System HP (quads) Single Package HP (quads)

1 0.030 0.004

2 0.030 0.004

3 0.030 0.004

Furnaces

Table 10.5.35 shows the standby and off

- model energy savings for the TSLs analyzed for

furnaces.

Table 10.5.35 Furnaces: Cumulative Standby and Off

- Mode National Energy Savings

from 2016

- 2045

TSL Non

- Weatherized Gas Fu rnaces (quads) Mobile Home Furnaces (quads) Oil Furnaces (quads)

1 0.04 0.00 0.00

2 0.04 0.00 0.00

3 0.04 0.00 0.00

10.5.7.5 NPV Results by Trial Standard Level

- Efficiency

The following section presents the consumer net present value associated with standards at the considered TSLs for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces.10-117 

### Central Air Conditioners

— Split System

Table 10.5.36 and Table 10.5.37 show th e NPV for the T SLs analyzed for split system

central air c onditioners for the residential and commercial sector using a three percent and seven percent real discount rate, respectively. The table s show the breakdown for coil

- only units and

blower coil units.

Table 10.5.36 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative Na tional NPV Results
(3% Discount Rate)

TSL Nation (bill 2009$) Hot

- Humid (bill 2009$) Hot

- Dry ( bill 2009$) Rest of Cntry (bill 2009$

Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil

1 0.39 0.32 0.07

- - - - - - - - -

2a

- - - 0.20 0.16 0.03 0.14 0.12 0.02

- 0.08

- 0.07

- 0.01

2b

- - - 0.20 0.16 0.03 0.14 0.12 0.02

- 0.08

- 0.07

- 0.01

3a

- - - 0.76 0.63 0.13 0.53 0.45 0.09

- 0.13

- 0.13 0.00

3b

- - - 0.76 0.63 0.13 0.53 0.45 0.09

- 0.13

- 0.13 0.00

4a

- - - 0.89 0.75 0.14 0.63 0.53 0.10

- 0.14

- 0.14 0.00

4b

- - - 0.90 0.76 0.14 0.63 0.53 0.10

- 0.12

- 0.12 0.00

5

- - - 0.76 0.63 0.13 0.53 0.45 0.09

- 0.13

- 0.13 0.00

6

- - - - 4.25

- 4.54 0.29

- 2.99

- 3.19 0.20

- 0.49

- 0.44

- 0.05

7

- - - - 14.20

- 14.22 0.03

- 9.83

- 9.86 0.03

- 46.76

- 43.98

- 2.78



### Table 10.5.37 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NPV Results
(7 % Discount Rate)

TSL Nation (bill 2009$) Hot

- Humid (bill 2009$) Hot

- Dry ( bill 2009$) Rest of Cntry (bill 2009$

Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil Total Coil

Only Blower

Coil T otal Coil

Only Blower

Coil

1 0.12 0.10 0.02

- - - - - - - - -

2a

- - - 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.01

- 0.09

- 0.08

- 0.01

2b

- - - 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.01

- 0.09

- 0.08

- 0.01

3a

- - - 0.26 0.22 0.04 0.18 0.16 0.03

- 0.05

- 0.05 0.00

3b

- - - 0.26 0.22 0.04 0.18 0.16 0.03

- 0.05

- 0.05 0.00

4a

- - - 0.32 0.27 0.04 0.23 0.20 0.03

- 0.06

- 0.06 0.00

4b

- - - 0.31 0.27 0.04 0.23 0.20 0.03

- 0.05

- 0.05 0.00

5

- - - 0.26 0.22 0.04 0.18 0.16 0.03

- 0.05

- 0.05 0.00

6

- - - - 2.93

- 3.01 0.08

- 2.03

- 2.08 0.05

- 0.41

- 0.37

- 0.04

7

- - - - 10.00

- 9.67

- 0.33

- 6.87

- 6.66

- 0.22

- 25.29

- 23.69

- 1.6010-118 

### Central Air Conditioners

— Single Package

Table 10.5.38 and Table 5.3.39 show the NPV for the T SLs analyzed for single package

central air conditioners for the residential and commercial sector.

Table 10.5.38 Single Package Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NPV

Results , Residential and Commercial Sector *

TSL Nation (bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 0.00 0.00



### 2a 0.00 0.00



### 2b 0.00 0.00



### 3a

- 0.19

- 0.18



### 3b

- 0.19

- 0.18



### 4a

- 0.17

- 0.19



### 4b

- 0.17

- 0.19



### 5

- 0.19

- 0.18



### 6

- 1.03

- 0.76



### 7

- 2.73

- 1.92

* Figures do not include either the benefits from the standby power requirement or the monetized value of emissions

reductions.



### Table 10.5.39 Single Package Central Air Conditioners Sum of Net Benefits : Cumulative National NPV Results, Residential and Commercial Sector

with Present Value of Monetized Emissions and Standby and Off

- Mode

Net Benefits *

TSL Nation ** (bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 0.09 0.02



### 2a 0.09 0.02



### 2b 0.09 0.02



### 3a 0.03

- 0. 07



### 3b 0.03

- 0.0 7



### 4a 0.00

- 0.0 7



### 4b 0. 0 0

- 0. 0 7



### 5

- 0.04

- 0. 08



### 6

- 0.70

- 0. 49



### 7

- 2.50

- 1. 74

* T he economic benefits from reduced CO 2 emissions were calculated using a SCC value of $22.1/metric ton in 2010 (in 2009$) for CO 2 , increasing at 3% per year, and a discount rate of 3%. The economic benefits from reduced

NO X emissions were calculated using a value of $2,519/ton (in 2009$), which is the average of the low and high10-119 values used in DOE’s analysis, and 3

- and 7

- percent discount rate. Standby a nd off

- mode benefits are calculated for
the standby and off

- mode TSL2.
** Figures are the combination of the efficiency TSL NPVs, the standby and off

- mode power NPV, and the present value of monetized emission reductions resulting from the TSLs. The comb ination of cumulative national NPV with
the present value of the monetized emission reductions demonstrate the full economic impact of issuing efficiency
and standby/off

- mode standards on single package central air conditioners. When all benefits are inclu ded, the NPV
of the standard is positive or non

- negative at 3 percent discount rate for TSLs 1 through 4b. Because DOE used
conservative analysis assumptions for post

- standards trends, DOE believes that the net benefits from standards are
likely to be even more positive than what is presented in table. The present value of emission reductions are presented fully in Chapter 16.10-120 

### Heat Pumps

— Split System

Table 10.5.40 shows the NPV for the TSLs analyzed for split system heat pumps for the

residential and commercial sector.

Table 10.5.40 Split System Heat Pumps : Cumulative National NPV Results

TSL Nation (bill 2009$) Hot

- Humid (bill 2009$) Hot

- Dry (bill 2009$) Rest of Country (bill 2009$)

3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate 3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate 3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate 3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate

1 0.38 0.11

- - - - - -
2a

- - 0.24 0.07 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00

2b

- - 0.24 0.07 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00

3a

- - 1.15 0.34 0.39 0.13 0.20 0.05

3b

- - 1.15 0.34 0.39 0.13 0.20 0.05

4a

- - 1.23 0.38 0.42 0.15 0.22 0.05

4b

- - 1.24 0.38 0.42 0.15 0.20 0.04

5

- - 1.15 0.34 0.39 0.13 0.20 0.05

6

- - 3.11 0.85 1.11 0.37 0.13

- 0.06

7

- - 7.32 0.13 3.82 0.99

- 2.09

- 1.6510-121 

### Heat Pumps

— Single Package

Table 10.5.41 and Table 10.5.42 show t he NPV for the TSLs analyzed for single package heat pumps for the residential and commercial sector.

Table 10.5.41 Single Package Heat Pumps: Cumulative National NPV Results *

TSL Nation (bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 0.00 0.00



### 2a 0.00 0.00



### 2b 0.00 0.00



### 3a

- 0.03

- 0.06



### 3b

- 0.03

- 0.06



### 4a

- 0.01

- 0.06



### 4b

- 0.01

- 0.06



### 5

- 0.03

- 0.06



### 6

- 0.42

- 0.39



### 7

- 1.33

- 1.09

* Figures do not include either the benefits from the standby power requirement or the monetized value of emissions

reductions.10-122 

### Table 10.5.42 Single Package Heat Pumps Sum of Net Benefits: : Cumulative National

NPV Results with Present Value of Monetized Emissions and Standby

and Off

- mode Net Benefits*

TSL Nation ** (bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 0.04 0.02



### 2a 0.04 0.02



### 2b 0.04 0.02



### 3a 0.05 0.00



### 3b 0.05 0.0 0



### 4a 0.07 0.00



### 4b 0.07 0.00



### 5 0.05

- 0.01



### 6

- 0.20

- 0.19



### 7

- 1.17

- 0.95

* T he economic benefits from reduced CO 2 emissions were calculated using a SCC value of $22.1/metric ton in 2010 (in 2009$) for CO 2 , increasing at 3% per year, and a discount rate of 3%. The economic benefits from reduced

NO X emissions were calculated using a value of $2 ,519/ton (in 2009$), which is the average of the low and high
values used in DOE’s analysis, and 3

- and 7

- percent discount rate. Standby and off

- mode benefits are calculated for
the standby and off

- mode TSL2.
** Figures are the combination of the efficienc y TSL NPVs, the standby and off

- mode power NPV, and the present value of monetized emission reductions resulting from the TSLs. The combination of cumulative national NPV with
the present value of the monetized emission reductions demonstrate the full pot ential economic impact of issuing
efficiency and standby/off

- mode standards on single

- package heat pumps. When all benefits are included, the NPV
of the standard is positive at 3 percent discount rate for TSLs 1 through 5 and non

- negative at 7 percent disc ount rate forTSLs 1 through 4b. Because DOE used conservative analysis assumptions for post

- standards trends, DOE
believes that the net benefits from standards are likely to be even more positive than what is presented in table. The present value of emissi on reductions are presented fully in Chapter 16.



### Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces

Table 10.5.43 shows the NPV for the TSLs analyzed for non

- weatherized gas furnaces for the North and South region.10-123 

### Table 10.5.43 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces: Discounted Regional NPV Results for

the Residential Secto r

TSL Nation (bill 2009$) South (bill 2009$) North (bill 2009$)

3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate 3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate 3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate

1 0.00 0.00

- - - -

2a

- - 0.00 0.00 10.04 2.46

2b

- - 0.00 0.00 10.98 2.27

3a

- - 0.00 0.00 9.45 2.35

3b

- - 0.00 0.00 10.98 2.27

4a

- - 0.00 0.00 10.29 2.68

4b

- - 0.00 0.00 12.62 2.88

5

- - 0.00 0.00 10.98 2.27

6

- - 0.00 0.00 10.98 2.27

7

- - 5.89

- 1.72 10.54 1.50



### Mobile Home Furnaces

Table 10.5.44 shows the NPV for the TSLs analyzed for mobile home furnaces for the North and South region.

Table 10.5.44 Mobile Home Furnaces: Discounted Regiona l NPV Results for the

Residential Sector

TSL Nation (bill 2009$) South (bill 2009$) North (bill 2009$)

3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate 3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate 3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate

1 0.00 0.00

- - - -

2a

- - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2b

- - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3a

- - 0.00 0.00 1.12 0.32

3b

- - 0.00 0.00 1.53 0.40

4a

- - 0.00 0.00 1.24 0.38

4b

- - 0.00 0.00 1.72 0.46

5

- - 0.00 0.00 1.53 0.40

6

- - 0.00 0.00 1.53 0.40

7

- - 0.85 0.16 1.53 0.40



### Oil Furnaces

Table 10.5.45 shows the NPV for the TSLs analyzed for oil furnaces for the North and South region.10-124 

### Table 10.5.45 Oil Furnaces: Discounted Regional NPV Results for the Residential

Sector

TSL Nation (bill 2009$) South (bill 2009$) North (bill 2009$)

3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate 3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate 3% Discount

Rate 7% Discount

Rate

1 0.00 0.00

- - - -

2a

- - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2b

- - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3a

- - 0.02 0.01 0.10 0.03

3b

- - 0.02 0.01 0.10 0.03

4a

- - 0.02 0.01 0.12 0.04

4b

- - 0.02 0.01 0.12 0.04

5

- - 0.07 0.02 0.45 0.13

6

- - 0.07 0.02 0.45 0.13

7

- - 0.21 0.03 1.65 0.37



### 10.5.7.6 NPV Results by Trial Standard Level

– Standby and Off

- Mode

The following section presents the consumer net present value associated with standby

and off

- mode standards at the considered TSLs for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and

furnaces.

Central Air Conditioners

Table 10.5.46 and Table 10.5.47 show the off

- mode NPVs at a three percent and seven percent real discount rate, respectively for the TSLs analyzed for central air conditioners for the

residential and commercial sector.

Table 10.5.46 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off

- Mode NPV Results,
Residential and Commercial Sector (3% Discount Rate)

TSL Split System CAC (bill 2009$) Single Package CAC (bill 2009$) Coil Only Blower Coil

1 0.6 4 0.07 0.06

2 0.6 4 0.0 8 0.0 7

3 0.6 4 0.0 8 0.0 710-125 

### Table 10.5.47 Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National Off

- Mode NPV Results,
Residential and Commercial Sector (7% Discount Rate)

TSL Split System CAC (bill 2009$) Single Package CAC (bill 2009$) Coil Only Blower Coil

1 0.2 4 0.0 3 0.02

2 0.2 4 0.02 0.02

3 0.2 4 0.02 0.02



### Heat Pumps

Table 10.5.48 shows the off

- mode NPVs at a three percent and seven percent real discount rate for the TSLs analyzed for heat pumps for the residential and commercial sector.

Table 10.5.48 Split System Heat Pumps: Cumulative National and Regional NPV
Results, Residential and Commercial Sector

TSL Split System HP (bill 2009$) Single Package HP (bill 2009$)

3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate 3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate

1 0.21 0.0 7 0.0 3 0.0 1

2 0. 19 0.06 0.0 3 0.0 1

3 0. 08 0.0 0 0.0 1 0.00



### Furnaces

Table 10.5.49 shows the NPVs at a three percent and seven percent real discount rate for the TSLs analyzed for furnaces.

Table 10.5.49 Furnaces: Cumulative NPV Results for the Residential Sector

TSL Non

- Weatherized Gas

Furnaces (bill 2009$) Mobile Home Furnaces (bill 2009$) Oil Furnaces (bill 2009$)

3%

Discount

Rate 7 %

Discount

Rate 3 %

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate 3%

Discount

Rate 7%

Discount

Rate

1 0.17 0.0 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2 0.17 0.0 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3 0.1 3 ( 0.0 3) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00



### 10.5.7.7 Summary of Results by Trial Standard Level

Table 10.5.5 0 through Table 10.5.5 3 show the summary of energy savings and net present value res ults by TSL for central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces. Table

10.5.48 shows the cumulative energy efficiency national energy savings re sults for all products,

and Table 10.5.49 shows the cumulative standby and off

- mode national energy savings results. The range of results for TSLs 2, 3, and 4 reflect the approach described in section 10.5.7

.10-126 

### Table 10.5.50 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces : Cumulative
National Energy Savin gs for Energy Efficiency TSLs for 2016

- 2045

TSL Quads

1 0.1 8

2 2.32

- 2.91

3 2.9 7

- 3.8 4

4* 3. 20

- 4.2 2

5 3.8 9

6 5.9 1

7 19. 18

* For TSL 4, which matches the recommendations in the consensus agreement, DOE forecasted the energy savings

from 2015 through 2045 for central air conditioners and heat pumps, and from 2013 through 2045 for furnaces.



### Table 10.5.51 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces : Cumulative
National Energy Savings for Standby Mode and Off Mode Power TSLs

for 2016

- 2045

TSL Quads

1 0.153

2 0.159

3 0.186



### Table 10.5.52 shows the cumulative energy efficiency net present value results for all products, and Table 10.5.53 shows the cumulative standby and off

- mode net present value

results.

Table 10.5.52 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces : Cumulative Net
Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Energy Efficiency TSLs

TSL 3

- percent Discount Rate 7

- percent Discount Rate

Billion 2009$

1 0. 76 0. 23

2 10.6 1

- 11. 5 6 2.6 0

- 2.4 1

3 13. 35

- 15.2 9 3.3 6

- 3.3 6

4* 14. 73

- 17. 55 3.9 3

- 4. 2 1

5 15.6 9 3.4 7

6 8.18 ( 2.56 )

7 (4 5.12 ) (44. 98 )

* For TSL 4, which matches the recommendations in the consensus agreement, DOE forecasted the energy savings
from 2015 through 2045 for central air conditioners and heat pumps, and from 2013 through 2045 for furnaces.
Parentheses indicate negative (

- ) values.10-127 

### Table 10.5.53 Central Air Conditioners, Heat Pumps and Furnaces : Cumulative Net
Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Standby Mode and Off Mode

Power TSLs

TSL 3

- percent Discount Rate 7

- percent Discount Rate

Billion 2009$

1 1.139 0.371

2 1.179 0.373

3 1.015 0.235



### The NPV results presented in this chapter are based on use of medium learning r ates to forecast product prices: 18.1% for central air conditioners and heat pumps and 30.6% for furnaces, both of which are referred to as the “default” learning rates. DOE also considered three learning rate sensitivities: (1) a “high l earning” rate; (2) a “low learning” rate; and (3) a “no learning” rate. The “high learning” rates are 20.5% for central air conditioners and heat pumps and 33.3% for furnaces. The “low learning’ rates are 11.5% for central air conditioners and heat

pumps and 19.2% for furnaces. The “no learning” rate sensitivity, which is zero percent for all products, assumes constant real prices over the entire forecast period.

Appendix 10

- C presents NPV results for the default case and each sensitivity case. The

resu lts in the appendix are annualized and combine the NPV of the consumer savings, calculated for each TSL using 3 and 7 percent discount rates, with the present value of the estimated economic benefits resulting from reduced CO 2 

### and NO X 

### emissions

.10-128 

### REFERENCES

1 

### Air

- Conditioning, Heating and Refrigerator Institu te. Historical shipments and shipment

weighted efficiency data submittal. December 2008.

2 

### U.S. Department of Energy

– Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlo ok 2010 with Projections to 2035 . March 20 10 . U.S. DOE

– EIA: Washington, D.C. DOE/EIA

0383(2010 ). < http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2010).pdf >

3 

### Off ice of Management and Budget. OMB Circular A

- 4, Regulatory Analysis

. 2003. OMB: Washington, D .C. September 17, 2003.

< www.whitehouse.gov/omb/assets/omb/circulars/a004/a

- 4.pdf >