# Energy, Security and the **Environment: From Global to Local to Global** 

Al Sweedler Environmental Sciences Program Department of Physics San Diego State University April 2008

# Outline • Global and national energy trends. • California and San Diego energy system • SDSU energy research. • Conclusions.People use Energy:

Global energy use closely related to growth of population.

## Wo **rld E ne**  **rgy 1**  **850-2000**
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Ye arEJ/year Ga s Oi l Co al Nu cl ear Hy dro + Bi omass 

## History of world supply of primary energy:

**continuous growth** 

Hydro+ means hydropower plus other renewables besides biomass **Energy supply grew 2**  **0 -** **fold betw een**  **1850 and 2000. Fossil fuels supplied 80%**  **of the w orld’**  **s energy in 2000.**  **From Holdren (2007)** 

### ...w**ith carbon**  **- based fuels supplying most of the** 

**primary energy**

Source: IEA 86% from C - based fuels 80.3% from C - based fuels

### ...and **that growth will continue**  72% increase from 2003... **with carbon -**  **based fuels still supplying most of the**  **energy.**

Source: IEA 80.4% carbon based in 2010 81.2% carbon based in 2030**Electricity : versatile and rapidly** **grow ing.**  **About 1/3 of primary** **e nergy** **s upply** **is used to generate electricity**

**Shares of nuclear**

**, natural gas, & coal grow ing,**  **those of oil & hydro shrinking. USA**  **g ets 50% of its electricity**  **from coal, China gets 80% from coal. (Holdren)** 

## Main Issues Associated with Continued

Growth of Current Energy System • Environmental.

– air pollution

– global climate change/warming

– water quality and quantity • Security.

– securing adequate energy supply

– competition for energy resources. • Economic development.

– Critical for countries like China, India, Brazil and others.Environmental Issues Associated with Continued Energy Growth: Global Air Pollution

Source: European Space Agency Concentration of NO2 18 Months of Observations

## Particulate pollution **in selected cities**

**OECD Environmental data 1995; WRI China tables**  **1995; Central Pollution**  **Control Board, Delhi. “A** **mbient Ai**  **r Quality** 

**Status and Statistics,**  **1993 and 1994”; Urban Ai**  **r Pollution**  **in Megacities of the**  **World, WHO/UNEP**

**, 1992; EP**

**A, AI**  **RS database.** **2005 w as**  **the hottest year on record;**  **the 13 hottest all occurred since 1990, 23 out of the 24 hottest since 1980.**  **J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103**  **: 14288 -** **293 (26 Sept 2006)**  **Green bars show 9**  **5% confidence interv** **als** 

### Global W

**arming: The Earth is**  **getting warmer .**  **° C** **Source: Hansen et al.,**  **Science 308**  **, 1431,**  **2005. ...and w**  **e know**  **wh y.**  Current computer model wi th sensitivity ~0.75oC per W/m 2 , using best estimates of natural & human influences (A) as input, reproduces almost perfectly the last 125 years of observed temperatures (B). Other “fingerprints” of GHG influence on climate also match observations.**...and what is causing it.** 

Source: IPCC 2007

### ...and ther**e ar e specific consequences** Energy Security – Oil Global Oil FlowsEnergy Security:

Liquefied Natural Gas – the New “Oil”??

# Problem with Business as Usual • The problem is not that we won’t have enough energy to meet projected demand. • The problem is the irreparable harm to the global environment that is very likely to result from current energy use patterns. • And the security implications of increasing reliance on global energy flows.

## Let’ **s take closer look at U.S.** 

### Carbon Dioxide Emissions from US Energy System

### Side Note:

**Oil Reality f** **or the U.S.** • U.S. consumes 26% of world’s oil. • U.S. imports 66% of its oil. By 2020, we will be importing close to 75% !! • U.S. will spend at least $548 billion this year for oil. • 65% of global reserves are in middle east. • By 2030, China will import as much oil as U.S.**Petroleum (2005)** In - Sate 37.22% Alaska 20.99% Foreign 41.79% **Electricity (2006)**  In -State 78.03% Natural Gas 41.5% Nuclear 12.9% Large Hydro 19.0% Coal* 15.7% Renewable 10.9% Imports 21.97% **Natural Gas (2005**  ) InState 15.0% Canada 23.0% Rockies 24.0% Southwest 38.0% * Intermountain and Mohave coal plants, though outside California, are considered "in - state", since they are in California utilities' control areas. 

### California’ **s Energy Sour ces** Greater San Diego Region

# California**- Baja California Border** 

**Population, 1980 –** **2020**
**0 1,**  **000, 000**  **2, 000,**  **000 3,**  **000, 000**  **4, 000,**  **000 5,**  **000, 000**  **6, 000,**  **000 7,**  **000, 000**  **8, 000,**  **000 9,**  **000, 000**  **10, 000,**  **000**
**1980 1990**  **2000 2010**  **2020**

Ca lif or ni a Bor de r Ba ja C al if or ni a Bor de r To ta l Source: The U.S. -Mexican Border Environment: A Road Map to a Sustainable 2020 . San Diego State University Press. Paul Ganster, editor, 2000

### San Diego’s Energy Sources • SD is almost entirely dependant on fossil fuels (oil and natural gas) imported from outside the region to meet its energy needs. • Transportation is the largest consumer of energy in the region, accounting for over 65% of total energy use. It is also the largest source of air pollution. • Electricity:

– SD imports over 60% of its electricity. Sources for that power are natural gas, coal, nuclear, large hydro, and some renewable.

– There are three main in - region generating plants. All use natural gas. (Encina, Escondido, South Bay).

– Very small amount of in - region renewable sources – some solar, wind and biomass. Less than 3% of energy use.ENCINA

SOUTH BAY

OLD TOW N PENASQUITOS

TO TIJUANA MIGUEL ESCONDIDO TALEGA

**MEXICO** MISSION SAN ONOFRE SAN LUIS REY

SYCAMORE CANYON GLENCLIFF DESCANSO
BARRETT CAMERON TO BOULDER CREEK SANTA YSABEL CREELMAN LOS COCHES ALPINE LOVELAND NARROW S WA RNERS BORREGO

POW AY POMERADO ESCO RINCON LILAC ASH VALLEY

CENTER **IMPERIAL CO. RIVERSIDE CO.**  **ORANGE CO.**  **SAN DIEGO CO.**

BOULEVARD CRESTW OOD CAPISTRANO TRABUCO LAGUNA NIGUEL MARGARITA CRISTIANITOS

MAIN STREET IMPERIAL VALLEY

MONSERATE PALA

**ENVIREPEL** Existing Major Generation Plants Existing 230 kV Substation Existing 69 kV Substation Existing 138 kV Substation Future Generation Plant Existing Generation Plant Transmission Line Upgrade New Transmission Line or Line Section Existing 500 kV Transmission Line Existing 230 kV Transmission Line Existing 138 kV Transmission Line Existing 69 kV Transmission Line County Boundaries

Note: Map not to scale **PA LOMA**  **R ENERGY** 

**OTA Y MESA**  SOUTH BAY 69kV MONTGOMERY 69kV SW EETWATER 69kV

OTAY LAKE TAP OTAY **Electricity**

**Infrastructure in San Diego**  

# -

# Energy Research at SDSU

(partial list) • Study of renewable energy resources in the region. • Energy and air pollution in the border region. • Monitoring and evaluation of solar energy systems at SDSU and in the region. • Energy Innovations Grants Program. • IAC and Innovative wind design. COE,Asfaw Beyene.Av ailable at: **www .r** **enewablesg.org**

Key collaborators: David Rohy(SDSU) Sean Tanaka (SDSU) Al Sweedler (SDSU) Bob Resley (SDGE) To m Bialek (SDGE) Scott Anders (CCSE/USD) Margarito Quintero (UABC) Rick van Schoik (SCERP)Renewable Energy Potential for SD Region is **VER Y**  Large • Solar: PV and CSP • Geothermal • Wind • BiomassVery Large Central Solar Power Potential for Southwest

Source: NREL**Location of Wi**  **nd Energy Resour ces in the Region** 

Source: SDSU Center for Energy Studies

## Summary for Renewable Energy Potential in

the Greater San Diego Region • **There is a very large**  **potential for renewable**  **energy development in the greater**  **SD region.** • **This resource consists of central**  **solar power and**  **geothermal power in the Imperial**  **Valley, roof -**  **top PV on commercial**  **and residential buildings and CSP in SD**  **County, and wind in SD and Imperial**  **Counties and Baja California.**  • **Whether or not this potential is ever developed depends on costs as well as federal,**  **state and local energy**  **policies.**• To monitor and evaluate solar PV and thermal systems at SDSU and compare with similar sy stems at UCSD, which is in a different climate zone. ( **fs.sdsu.edu)** • Fletcher Miller (Mechanical Engineering), Al Sweedler, Tyler Otto, Mark Hatay (Phy sics, Env. Sci), Bill Lekas (Physical Plant), Pablo Bry ant (Field Stations). Collaboration with UCSD. 

### Monitoring and Evaluation of Solar Systems at

SDSU

# General Conclusions • **Global:**

– **Carbon -**  **based fuels will continue to provide major**  **portion of global primary energy needs for next 30**  **– 50 years.** 

– **CO 2**  **levels will continue to increase.** 

– **Non -**  **carbon energy sources will take at least 50**  **years to significantly**  **replace carbon fuels. Some of**  **these energy sources are likely to be: nuclear, solar,**  **wind, biofuels.** • **Regional:**

– **California and SD will still**  **continue to rely heavily**  **on carbon fuels for the next 30 –**  **50 years.**

– **This will consist of imported natural gas for power production and oil**  **for transportation.**

– **However, there are very large**  **resources of**  **renewable energy in the region that could**  **potentially replace**  **oil and gas, but**

– **They will not be developed unless cost is reduced**  **and much more**  **aggressive policies**  **are devised to both reduce the use of carbon fuels and to facilitate**  **non**   ** carbon energy use.**

# So ...what is to be done?? • **Adapt** to inevitable climate change and **mitigate** the causes. • Pursuing adaptation and mitigation will also reduce national and international security risks associated with energy. • **Adaptation**

– Expand water storage, water conservation and reuse.

– Water rationing?

– Avoid (prohibit?) development in low - lying coastal areas.

– Strengthen power infrastructure against severe weather events.

– Incorporate fire protection/abatement into normal planning process.

### • **Mitigation:**

– Reduce dramatically use of carbon - based fuels.

– Price all energy to reflect its true cost - which includes security and environmental costs.

– Develop policies that encourage (require?) reduction in carbon emissions. Energy rationing?

– Develop carbon capture and storage technologies.

– Expand use of non - carbon energy resources: e;g; solar (electric and thermal), wind, geothermal, tidal, nuclear, others.

– Incorporate (require?) sustainability concepts to become part of development and permit process.

### Role of Universities • **Education**

– **Develop courses and degree programs**  **in energy -**  **related fields.** 

– **In addition to**  **science and engineering aspects**  **of energy,**  **these courses need to include economics,**  **policy and regulatory affairs.**  • **Research**

– **Pursue basic and applied research in new and traditional energy technologies.** 

– **Important –**  **emphasize systems**  **and comprehensive**  **approach to**  **analysis of**  **energy issues.** • **Public outreach**

– **Universities must educate and inform**  **the public and policy****** **makers about energy issues and related environmental**  **impacts and security aspects.**