APPENDIX F-E 

Barstow Study – Economic Impact of DesertXpress

DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 1 

Potential Economic Impact of DesertXpress

On the City of Barstow

by

John Husing, Ph.D. 

December 18, 2010 

Economics & Politics, Inc. 

961 Creek View Lane

Redlands, CA 92373

(909) 307-9444 Phone

(909) 748-0620 FAX

john@johnhusing.com

www.johnhusing.com

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Potential Economic Impact of DesertXpress

On the City of Barstow

John Husing, Ph.D. 

Executive Summary

With the DesertXpress high speed rail link apparently poised to move ahead, the City of Barstow 

has raised important concerns about the system’s economic impact on the community. This 

analysis is intended to be an independent look at the impacts. 

Note: In all cases below, impacts are measured as if they were occuring in 2009. This is 

the year for which all factors in the analysis were derived including variables like traffic, 

jobs, passengers, and traveler based retail spending. 

Using the methodology outlined below, this analysis estimated the significant positive impact 

that Barstow would feel during the 2012-2014 construction period for DesertXpress. That work 

relied on UNLV Professor Thomas Carroll’s excellent analysis that used IMPLAN methods

similar to those in this report to estimate job and payroll generation throughout San Bernardino 

and Clark counties. The effects on Barstow would take place because the city is the closest 

location to where much of the construction will occur. This would be especially true on the 113 

mile span from Barstow to Primm, Nevada. Those impacts were estimated at:

• An annual average of 18,361 direct, indirect and induced jobs in San Bernardino County 

during the three year construction period. Of these, an annual average of 1,600 jobs 

were estimated to occur in the greater Barstow area. That would be an increase of 15.3% 

over its 2009 job base of 10,463. 

• An annual average of $1.23 billion of direct, indirect and induced payroll in San 

Bernardino County during the three year construction period. Of this, an annual average 

of $107 million was estimated to occur in Barstow. That would represent a 22.6% gain 

from the city’s base 2008 income level.

In the longer term, the operation of the DesertXpress could have a positive impact on Barstow 

because the city’s labor force includes many people with railroad related skills. That is the case 

because BNSF operates a major locomotive repair and switching yard in the city. It would be 

expected that people familiar and skilled in the sector would be among those hired to maintain

the DesertXpress equipment from its Victorville hub. The impact would begin when the system 

starts up with 361 workers and continue when it reaches its full operation with 463 workers. 

Exhibit 22 (re-shown).-Summary of Economic Impacts of DesertXpress Diversion

Barstow 2009 or Full Operation (Year 0: 2017)

Impact Loss Base % Loss

Economic Activity $41,613,859

Job Activity 542 10,463 -5.18%

Income $21,738,559 $473,339,937 -4.59%

Sales Taxes $387,564 $5,231,016 -7.41%

Property Taxes $21,706 $1,300,598 -1.67%

Meanwhile in 2009 terms, this analysis found that when the high speed system is in its first fully 

operational year (2017), it would have had the following impacts shown in Exhibit 22 from the 

analysis:

• $41.6 million of the funds that would otherwise have flowed into the city’s economy 

because of retail purchases by Las Vegas bound travelers would be lost. 

• 542 of the 10,463 jobs in the greater Barstow area would be lost or -5.18%.

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• $21.7 of the $473.2 million in income in the city would be lost or -4.59%.$387,564 of the 

city’s $5.2 million in sales taxes would not be collected or -7.41%. 

• $21,706 of the city’s $1.3 million in property taxes would not be collected or -1.67%. 

While these are negative impacts, they do not constitute the devastating impact and urban decay 

city officials worry will occur based upon their comments on the supplementary draft of the 

Environmental Impact Report for DesertXpress.1 Their letter cited the following potential losses:

• 2,295 lost jobs compared to the 542 documented in this analysis. 

• $1,432,342 million in lost sales taxes compared to the $387,564 documented here.

• 50% to 55% loss in real estate values compared to the lack of connection between job 

and property value changes explained here.

Even looking out to the year 2024 (after 7-years of full operation), when the DesertXpress 

system will have had the chance to grow faster than freeway travel to Las Vegas without it, the 

negative impacts are more modest than these levels:

• 636 of the 10,463 jobs in the greater Barstow area would be lost or -6.07%. 

• $454,492 of the city’s $5.2 million in sales taxes would not be collected or -8.69%. 

Exhibit 28 (re-shown).-Summary of Economic Impacts of DesertXpress Diversion

Barstow 2009 or Full Operation (Year 7: 2024)

Impact Loss Base % Loss

Economic Activity $48,800,090

Job Activity 636 10,463 -6.07%

Income $25,492,555 $473,339,937 -5.39%

Sales Taxes $454,492 $5,231,016 -8.69%

Property Taxes $25,454 $1,300,598 -1.96%

How these great differences between this analysis and the city’s concerns came to be was not the 

subject of this report. Rather, its intent has been to independently research and document the 

anticipated impacts of DesertXpress on Barstow. It is therefore important to understand the steps 

and data sources used in this analysis: 

• As an outlying economy, the report analyzed the 2009 role that retail sales play in 

Barstow’s economic base. In particular, it examined the levels of spending in those retail 

sectors in which funds were clearly flowing into the city from the outside world (service 

stations, apparel, eating & drinking, general merchandise, food stores). 

• Since Barstow residents also shop in these sectors, estimates were made of local 

purchases in them. That work relied heavily on household spending patterns by sector 

from the U.S. Census for western consumers. Also, a newly created UCLA database 

allowed estimates of commercial trucking purchases at service stations. With these 

eliminated, a base was set of the 2009 impact of travelers on the city’s retail economy. 

All other impacts were measured against that base.

• Using 2008-2009 data from Caltrans as well the URS study of DesertXpress, estimates 

were made of the number of travelers in private vehicles and buses who pass through 

 

1 Comments on the Supplemental Draft EIR by City Barstow, October 14, 2010

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Barstow because of the I-15, I-40 and SR-58 freeways. Together with the data on sales in 

traveler-dependent retail sectors, this allowed calculation of the average per capita 

spending of travelers who could be impacting the city’s retail economy.

• Using the Caltrans data, as well as the URS study of DesertXpress, an estimate was made 

of passenger travelers involved in 2009 trips to or from Nevada, as well as the share of 

those trips that likely involved people going specifically to Las Vegas. Importantly, it 

was the share of these travelers that would be reduced because of DesertXpress. 

• This analysis started with the URS percentage of travelers in private vehicles that would 

be diverted from Las Vegas to DesertXpress of 20.3%. However, this was lowered by 

10% to 18.3%, in accordance with the findings of peer reviewer Steer Davies Gleave 

supported by peer reviewer Cambridge Systematics that URS overestimated diversion in 

hours when no trains would be running. 

• Day travel to Las Vegas that would be induced and captured by DesertXpress was not 

included in this analysis since it would not represent a decrease from current travel 

patterns. That was also the recommendation of Cambridge Systematics.

• The 22.0% estimate of bus traveler diversion by URS was used. 

• These calculations allowed estimates of the sales by retail sector that would have been 

lost to Barstow with DesertXpress in its year 0 or 2017 fully operational mode. 

• Given the loss of funds from Barstow’s economy base calculated, the standard Implan 

model used by economists for outlying economies was used to estimate the full direct, 

indirect and induced effects on economic activity, jobs, income, sales and property taxes 

of DesertXpress had they occurred on the city in 2009. This was used as the model for 

the year 0 (2017) level of impact. The results were re-shown in the Exhibit 22 above. 

• Prior to that, there would be two ramp-up years in 2015 and 2016, as people become 

aware of the high speed rail system. The lower levels of impact in those two years were 

also calculated. 

• Looking longer term, traffic data from DMJM Harris, AECOM allowed the calculation 

that DesertXpress’s customer base is forecasted to grow faster than freeway traffic along 

the I-15 from Barstow to Nevada. Using the I-15 growth factors found by these traffic 

consultants for a 17 year period, and comparing them with the estimates of the 

DesertXpress’s rate of customer growth, led to calculations of the growing share of 

private vehicle and bus passengers that would use high speed rail in outlying years. 

Those estimates were used to calculate the impact of DesertXpress in year 7 (2024), reshown in Exhibit 28 above and in year 17 (2034).

Two other concerns about the impact of DesertXpress were also examined: 

• An analysis of the movement of housing volumes and prices in Barstow was compared 

to the movement of employment levels in the city since 1991. It found no particular 

relationship. Essentially, the city’s housing market appears to move in response to 

broader real estate factors affecting all of the High Desert. No likely linkage between 

the housing market and DesertXpress was therefore found. 

• There was concern that Barstow Industrial Park would be adversely affected by the 

routing of DesertXpress. Since the route has changed, that worry is no longer applicable. 

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Work done for SCAG was cited indicating that the park’s success will be based upon 

broader geographic trends in logistics, not operations like high speed rail. 

In sum, DesertXpress will have a strongly positive influence on the Barstow economy during its 

construction phase. It will have a modestly negative impact once it starts operation in 2015. 

That impact will grow slowly over time, but not be the devastating problem feared by some. 

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Economics & Politics, Inc. 

961 Creek View Lane

Redlands, CA 92373

(909) 307-9444 Phone

(909) 748-0620 FAX

john@johnhusing.com

www.johnhusing.com

Potential Economic Impact of DesertXpress

On the City of Barstow

John Husing, Ph.D. 

At the request of the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration, the purpose of this report is to take 

an independent look at the potential economic impact on the City of Barstow regarding the 

proposed high-speed rail link between Victorville and Las Vegas known as DesertXpress. The 

methodology for doing so requires the following steps: 

1. Determine existing economic conditions in the market area defined as the city of Barstow 

and/or the Greater Barstow area. Where data is available, the wider area is defined using 

Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) transportation analysis zones

(TAZ): 500930000, 500940000, 500950000, 501200000, 501030002, 501030003, 

501030004, 501160000, 501180000, 501180001, 501190000, 501190001, 501190002. 

This includes the city of Barstow as well as areas encompassing Daggatt, Lynwood, 

Nebo, Yermo, Helendale, and Newberry Springs. 

2. Estimate the degree to which economic conditions in the market area are the result of 

money being brought into the market area because of non-truck traffic moving between 

Las Vegas and Southern California along the I-15 freeway. Calculate this on a per 

vehicle basis and per passenger basis. 

3. Estimate the degree of diversion due to DesertXpress of passengers in non-commercial 

truck traffic moving between Las Vegas and Southern California along the I-15 freeway 

that occurred in 2009. 

4. Calculate the resulting change in the level of funds entering the Barstow economy in 

2009 that would have occurred because of the DesertXpress diversion. 

5. Estimate the full economic, job, income, sales tax and property tax impact on the market 

area, circa 2009, of this loss of money entering its economic base. 

6. Discuss the employment and payroll impact on the greater Barstow economy during the 

construction phase of the DesertXpress project.

7. Estimate the extent to which access to DesertXpress might have an impact on the housing 

market in Barstow. 

8. Forecast the economic effects on the market area over time of #4, #5 and #6. Do so

taking into account the anticipated number of non-commercial truck vehicles that would 

use the I-15 between Las Vegas and Southern California with and without DesertXpress. 

9. Estimate the impact of DesertXpress on Barstow Industrial Park. 

10. Draw appropriate conclusions about the potential impact of DesertXpress on the city of 

Barstow.

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Barstow Demographic Situation

Location. Barstow is located at the junction of the I-15, I-40 and SR-58 freeways in the Mojave 

Desert, 79 miles from the edge of the Los Angeles Basin in Ontario and 157 miles from Las 

Vegas. The High Desert city of Victorville is 32 miles to the south. 

Population. Barstow’s population was essentially unchanged from 1990-2000, declining from 

21,472 to 21,119. In the current decade, this changed with the city showing a little growth, going 

from 21,119 to 24,291 by January 1, 2010. That was a gain of 3,162 people or 15.0%. This was 

a tiny fraction (2.3%)) of the growth in the full High Desert (135,803) including the Victor 

Valley cities of Adelanto, Apple Valley, Hesperia and Victorville plus the surrounding 

unincorporated properties. In this decade, the larger region went from 289,278 to 425,080

people, up 135,803 or 46.9%. Of this growth, Barstow represented 2.3% (Exhibit 1).

Barstow’s much slower growth is a natural result of the pattern by which population and 

economic activity have been migrating to the outlying areas of Southern California since World 

War II. Step #1 in this process occurs when residential developers begin running out of land on 

which they can build homes that are affordable to middle income buyers. They thus move into a 

previously unheralded market and start erecting “affordable” homes. Buyers priced out of the 

adjacent areas migrate to the new market and a population boom ensures.

Las Vegas

Bakersfield

Barstow

Victorville

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Once enough people have moved, population serving activities begin to emerge, bringing 

retailing, consumer services and local banking activity to the new area. It becomes characterized 

by these facts, plus a severe jobs:housing deficit and high levels of commuting since industrial 

and office jobs have not yet found it in their interest to migrate to Barstow. That awaits Step #2 

in the process, at least a decade later, when industrial developers begin migrating as they too 

begin running out of developable land. 

This pattern has been the recent story of the Victor Valley portion of the High Desert. However, 

until land in that area becomes saturated, aggressive Stage #1 activity will not reach Barstow.

Meanwhile on January 1, 2010, Barstow was the 11th smallest of the 50 cities in the Inland 

Empire. Among similar outlying cities, Desert Hot Springs was the next largest (26,811). 

Blythe (21,812) and Yucca Valley (21,292) were the next lowest. In terms of population growth, 

the absolute increase in the city’s population from 2000-2010 of 3,162 people was the 8th lowest 

of the 50 inland cities. Among similar outlying cities, Blythe was the next slowest at 1,347. 

Yucca Valley (4,427) and Banning (5,189) were the next fastest (Exhibit 3). 

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Population Forecast. According to work done by SCAG, the San Bernardino Associated 

Governments (SANBAG) and the city of Barstow’s staff, there were 24,010 people in the city in 

2008. That is expected to grow to 29,771 by 2020, up 5,761 people or 1.81% compounded. The 

greater Barstow area had a population of 39,307 in 2008 and is forecasted to reach 46,712 by 

2020, up 7,405 people or 1.45% per year (Exhibit 2). This population growth shows some effect 

of the outward migration of Southern California, but very little. 

Barstow can thus be thought of as a location that still has a mainly self-contained economy, and 

one that will likely remain in that condition for a least a decade, if not longer. This means that 

Barstow’s economy will largely be separated from the forces now shaping the Victor Valley area 

of the High Desert. 

Income. Using 2009 population from the CA Department of Finance and Census data based 

upon 2006-2008 interviews, the total income of the city of Barstow was $473.3 million. That 

ranked 9th lowest among the 48 inland cities for which data was reported. Among similar 

outlying cities, Desert Hot Springs was the next lowest at $434.9 million. Coachella was the 

next highest at $514.2 million (Exhibit 5). 

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Barstow’s median 2008 household income (half above/below) was $48,042. That ranked 19th

lowest of the 48 inland cities. Among similar outlying cities, Victorville ($48,462) was the next 

highest. Yucca Valley ($45,298) and Calimesa ($45,857) were the next lowest. The city’s 

median income was just below the level for the five High Desert cities including Barstow 

($49,560). It was -8.2% below San Bernardino County’s median income of $53,320 (Exhibit 6).

Adult Educational Level. Barstow’s adult population is not well educated. In 2008, 53.7% of 

the city’s adults, 25 and over, had not had a single college class. That was well above the 

averages for the two inland counties: San Bernardino (48.5%) and Riverside (47.8%). In terms 

of college graduates, only 9.1% of the city’s adults had a bachelor’s or higher degree. That was 

just over half the level in San Bernardino County (17.9%) and just under half the level in 

Riverside County (20.1%).

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Age. In 2008, 20.9% of Barstow’s population was 55 or over, compared to 16.8% for San 

Bernardino County, giving the city a much higher share of older baby boomers and retirees than 

the county. This contrasted with the city having a much smaller share of young adults aged 25-

34 at 13.0% vs. 15.7% for the county. 

Poverty. The 2006-2008 American Community Survey from the Census Bureau found that the 

share of Barstow’s population below the poverty level in 2008 was 19.9%. That was well above 

the 10.7% in San Bernardino County. That was constant with the fact that in 2009, San 

Bernardino County reported that 39.7% of Barstow’s population was on some form of public 

assistance. That was the highest level among the county’s 24 cities and more than double the 

18.9% average for the county (Exhibit 9).

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Summary. The demographic and economic data about Barstow show it to be: 

• A relatively small, slow growing city that is still largely isolated from the economic 

forces that began migrating into the High Desert in this decade. That condition is 

forecasted to persist until at least 2020. 

• Total income was relatively small in 2009. The 2008 median household income level 

was just below that of the High Desert but -8.1% below that for San Bernardino County. 

• Educational levels are modest with over half the city’s adults (25 and over) not having 

gone beyond high school and under 10% having college degrees.

• A disproportionately large share of the city’s population are aging baby boomers and 

retirees, while there is an unusually low share of young adults. 

• Poverty levels are the high, with the city having the largest share of people receiving

public assistance in San Bernardino County, over double the county’s average. 

DesertXpress and Bartow’s Retail Sales & Economic Activity

Barstow’s economic condition is largely driven by variations in the flow of funds coming into it 

from the outside world. This is the case because the city has not yet begun to feel the forces that 

announce the arrival of the ever-expanding edge of Southern California’s urban area. That edge 

is currently in the Victor Valley some thirty-two miles to the south where high speed population 

growth has been occurring since roughly 2000. 

Economic Base. As a remote area, Barstow’s economy rises and falls much like a gold mine in 

the Old West. There, miners dug up gold and shipped it away, bringing fresh injections of 

money into an area that previously had no economy. Funds such as these, flowing to an isolated 

economy from the outside world, represent a city’s “basic” tier of economy activity. Without 

them, there would be no economy. Once the money arrives, it moves from the recipients into 

locally based “secondary” sectors. In the Old West, that was the general stores and saloons. 

They could not exist without the funds flowing from the gold miners. Similarly, in a modern 

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economy, the funds flowing to its “basic” sectors allow locally based secondary activities to 

exist. Generally, these are sectors like retailing, consumer services, entertainment, local 

government and personal financial institutions. 

To understand the impact of DesertXpress on Barstow, it is necessary to determine the extent 

that the city is currently dependent upon the flow of dollars into it from travelers on the I-15 

freeway between Southern California’s urban areas and Las Vegas. Since activity of this type 

shows up in retailing, it represents a difficulty since that sector is also propelled by spending 

from local residents as well as travelers moving east-west on the I-40 and SR-58. 

Retail Activity. From 2000-2007, Barstow’s taxable sales grew from $415.6 million to $596.9 

million, up 159.7 million or 38.4%. They then fell by -$73.8 million (-12.4%) to $523.1 million 

by 2009. For the full 2000-2009 period, sales were up $107.6 million or 25.9% (Exhibit 10). 

From 2000-2008, Barstow’s retail sales in sectors heavily related to freeway traffic went from 

$276.0 to $437.6 million, up $151.6 million or 58.6%. They then fell -$46.0 million (-10.5%) to 

$391.6 million by 2009. From 2000-2009, sales grew $115.6 million or 41.9% (Exhibit 11).

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Retail activity in freeway related sectors thus outperformed the overall city during the periods of 

growth (58.6% v. 38.4%) and decline (-10.5 v. -12.4%) as well as for the full 2000-2009 period 

(41.9% v. 25.9%). Since 2000, these sectors have varied from a low 66.4% of the city’s retail 

activity in 2000 to a high of 76.1% in 2008. There is logic behind these facts as the sectors 

included are:

• Service Stations since they cater directly to travelers

• Apparel due to the outlet malls

• Eating & Drinking since a good deal of their business is from travelers 

• General Merchandise due to the outlet malls

• Food stores due to purchases by travelers 

These were the sectors in which the per capita spending in Barstow during 2009 was over $500 

higher than per capita spending for San Bernardino County. Thus, per capita service station 

spending in the city was $7,260 higher than the average for the county after adjusting for the fact 

that the city’s median income was -12.7% lower than for the county. Similarly, very large city 

advantages were seen in the apparel ($2,689), eating and drinking ($1,924) and general 

merchandise ($809) sectors (Exhibit 12). The next largest positive per capita spending gap for 

the city was in food sales ($579). In part this can be explained by the fact that 19.9% of 

Barstow’s families were below the poverty level versus just 10.7% for the county. There would 

thus be a much greater emphasis on food store purchases as a percentage of spending by city 

residents than for the county generally. Still, there appears to be an influence of outsiders 

making purchases in the city. The next sector with a significant sales surplus is building 

materials ($345) which is very unlikely to have a relationship to recreational travelers.

In 2009, spending in the five categories most influenced by freeway travelers was (Exhibit 13):

• Service Stations $201.6 million 

• Apparel $75.8 million 

• Eating & Drinking $68.2 million 

• General Merchandise $45.9 million 

• Food Stores $23.9 million

• Total $415.6 million

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Those sectors represented 79.4% of the $523.1 million in taxable sales in the city during 2009

(Exhibit 13). However, not all of this spending was from freeway travelers. To estimate the share 

from local consumers, a three step process was undertaken. First, an estimate was made of the 

total spending by local consumers in each category. This was done as follows (see Appendix A): 

Exhibit 14.-Local Share of Freeway Related Taxable Sales, 2009 (000)

Sector Taxable Sales Purchases by Locals Local Share Local Purchases Freeway

Gas Station $201,612 $19,444 90.0% $17,500 $184,112

Apparel $75,803 $14,948 75.0% $11,211 $64,592

Eating & Drinking $68,247 $22,204 85.0% $18,873 $49,373

General Merchandise $45,945 $19,879 60.0% $11,927 $34,018

Food Stores $23,948 $16,368 95.0% $15,549 $8,399

Total $415,555 $92,842 $75,060 $340,494

Sources: CA Board of Equalization, 2008-9 U.S. Census Bureau Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2006-2008 U.S. Census Bureau 

American Community Survey, Economics & Politics, Inc.

• 2008-2009 data was obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau’s consumer expenditure 

survey for families in the western U.S. region. The data were by income group and 

showed average income and annual expenditures by category for each group.

• Data from the 2006-2008 U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey were used 

to estimate the number of households in Barstow in each of the expenditure categories. 

Importantly, multiply households by income in each income category yielded a total of 

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$489.5 million for Barstow vs. the $473.3 million estimate of total income (Exhibit 5), 

just a 3.3% difference. 

• Total expenditures of $421.8 million were divided among expenditure categories, with 

these further divided between taxable and non-taxable spending.

• This allowed an estimate of the total taxable spending by Barstow residents in each 

income group for each freeway-related retail category. These were summed for all 

income groups and resulted in the total spending by category for city residents in column 

three of Exhibit 14, totaling $92,842,000. 

• The share of spending that local residents would make within Barstow, for each category 

of expenditure category, was then estimated. It included 95% for food, 90% for fuel, 

75% for apparel and 60% for general merchandise. These assumptions were made 

considering Bartow’s 32 mile distance from other High Desert cities, the frequency that 

purchases are made in a category, and the range of choices available in Barstow. They 

are shown in column four. 

• The local purchases based upon those factors of $75,060,000 were then calculated 

(column 5) and subtracted from the spending in the cateogry to estimate the freewayrelated purchases in it. That result is the total of $340.5 million in column six.

Diesel. Of the $340.5 million in taxable sales in Barstow’s five freeway related sectors, the 

largest item was service station expenditures of $184.1 million. Here, a second deduction is 

necessary since the intent of this study is to determine the economic impact on Barstow if 

DesertXpress diverts travelers expected to drive between Victorville and Las Vegas. That 

needed deduction is for Barstow diesel purchases by commercial trucking fleets that would be 

unaffected by the rail link. This is estimated at $54.2 million in 2009, based upon the number of 

gallons purchased each month of 2009 in zip code 92311 (data from the UCLA-Ceridian Index2) 

and the average monthly price of diesel in California during each month of the year3. The result 

is a net sale to travelers who are not fleet truckers of $129.9 million. Altogether, freeway related 

retail sales in Barstow would thus be $286.2 million (Exhibit 15).

Exhibit 15.-Non-Diesel Sales To Travelers In Freeway-Related Sectors 

Barstow, 2009

Retail Category Freeway Related Sales (million) Share of Sales

 Service Stations Gross Sales $184,112,286 

 Fleet Trucking Petroleum Sales* -$54,245,301 

Service Stations $129,866,975 45.4% 

Apparel $64,592,068 22.6% 

Eating & Drinking $49,373,237 17.2% 

General Merchandise $34,018,156 11.9% 

Food Stores $8,398,853 2.9%

Total $286,249,289 100.0%

*Fleet trucking deduction increased 20% from Ceridian Index figures since they do not include

petroleum data from competitors like Automated Data Processing, Pay Chex, Tri-Net Group

 

2 Ceridian is the nation’s largest provider of diesel credit cards to commercial trucking fleets. Information on the 

index is available at http://www.ceridianindex.com/ 3 U.S. Energy Administration

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The $286,249,289 in expenditures estimated by freeway traverlers represented 55.6% of the 

Barstow’s $523,101,552 in 2009 total taxable sales. It is this spending that would have been 

impacted if DesertXpress had diverted consumers off the Victorville-Las Vegas freeway route.

Volume of Traffic. A second important factor is the number of passengers in non-truck vehicles 

potentially impacting Barstow’s economy along the I-15, I-40 and SR-58 highways. 

1. Passengers Potentially Impacting Barstow’s Economy (I-15 north-south) 

To estimate traffic flows, 2008 annual average daily two-way vehicle traffic data from 

Caltrans were used.

4

 The measure is the total volume for the year divided by 365 days. 

North-south, two locations were used:

Lynwood Road, just south of Barstow, to provide data on traffic on the I-15 moving 

north and south between Barstow and points south including Victorville.

State Line at Primm, Nevada, to measure traffic on the I-15 moving north and south 

between Barstow and Nevada, mostly headed for, or coming from Las Vegas. This will 

be a slight overstatement since some traffic enters or leaves on SR-127 via Death Valley. 

• 53,000 was the annual average daily two-way traffic count between Victorville and

Barstow. It was 37,000 between Barstow and Primm, Nevada. There was thus a decline

of 16,000 vehicles a day for flows north and south of Barstow. This is the result of 

vehicles originating or ending trips in the city or moving along the I-40 and SR-58 which 

intersect the I-15 in the city. Meanwhile, Caltrans also counts trucks moving along the I15 excluding those under 11⁄2 tons with four wheels.5

 Adjusting for these facts yields 

(Exhibit 16): 

 

4 Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) for all vehicles on CA State Highways, Caltrans’s Traffic and Vehicle Data 

Systems Unit, 2009 (http://traffic-counts.dot.ca.gov/index.htm) 

5 Annual Average Daily Truck Traffic on CA Highways, Caltrans, 2009 (http://traffic-counts.dot.ca.gov/index.htm) 

Las Vegas

Barstow

Victorville

State Line .

.West Newberry Rd Lynwood Rd.

.Kramer Junction

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 18

Exhibit 16.-Annual Average Two-Way Daily Traffic Flows on I-15, 2008

Mile City Road Annual Avg. Daily 

Two-Way Vehicles

Annual Avg. Daily 

Truck Count- Share Annual Avg. Daily Passenger Vehicles

68.8 Barstow Lynwood Road 53,000 13,245 25.0% 39,755

186.2 Primm State Line 37,000 6,645 18.0% 30,355

Diversion (16,000) (6,600) (9,400)

Source: CalTrans Traffic and Vehicle Data Systems Unit, 2008, All Traffic Volumes on California State Highway System

• 53,000 vehicles moved along the I-15 south of Barstow, 25.0% or 13,245 were 

commercial trucks and 39,755 were passenger vehicles. Of the 37,000 vehicles heading 

entering or leaving Nevada, 18.0% or 6,645 were commerical trucks. 

• 30,355 private passenger vehicles a day moved north-south along I-15 above Barstow. 

• 11,075,975 private vehicles a year moved north/south above Barstow (30,355 x 365). 

• 5,539,788 were one-way north/south passengers assuming equal numbers each way.

• 2.46 is the estimated number of passengers per vehicle from the URS study.6

• 13,627,877 private vehicle passengers traversed Barstow north-south on I-15 and 

potentially impacted the city’s economy. 

2. Passengers Potentially Impacting Barstow’s Economy (I-40 east-west) 

Two sites were used to estimate I-40 east-west travelers who potentially impact Barstow’s 

economy (Exhibit 17): 

West Newberry Road, 18.4 miles east of Barstow, to provide data on I-40 traffic 

moving east-west between the city and points east like Needles and Arizona.

I-40 Main Street off-ramp and Main Street connection to I-15 in Barstow as this is 

the route that vehicles moving between the I-40 and the I-15, above Barstow, must travel. 

Exhibit 17.-Annual Average Two-Way Daily Traffic Flows on I-40, 2008

Mile City Road Annual Avg. Daily 

Two-Way Vehicles

Annual Avg. Daily 

Truck Count- Share Annual Avg. Daily Passenger Vehicles

18.4 Newberry West Newberry Rd. 12,600 5,988 47.5% 6,612

74.2 Barstow I-40 to Main St. to I-15 2,900 1,378 47.5% 1,523

Net I-15 Trips Involving Barstow And Not Moving North-South On I-15 5,090

Source: CalTrans Traffic and Vehicle Data Systems Unit, 2008, All Traffic Volumes on California State Highway System

• 12,600 was the average daily two way I-40 traffic at West Newberry Road. Of this, 

5,988 was the average daily truck count or 47.5%. Thus, 6,612 passenger vehicles a day 

moved east-west on the I-40 at W. Newberry Springs Rd. Of these, 2,900 vehicles a day, 

including 1,378 trucks and 1,523 private passenger vehicles moved along Main Street 

between the I-40 and the I-15 above Barstow.7 The estimated 1,523 private passenger 

vehicles were already counted in #1 which estimated traffic on the I-15 above Barstow. 

• 5,090 private passenger vehicles a day from the I-40 are thus estimated to not involve a 

trip along the I-15 above (north of) Barstow.

 

6 Desert Xpress Updated Ridership and Revenue Study, URS, December 22, 2005, Appendix B, Table 16, p. 18 7 Ramp Volumes on California State Freeways, Caltrans (http://traffic-counts.dot.ca.gov/index.htm) 

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 19

• 1,857,668 private passengers a year in I-40 vehicles not counted in traffic along the I-15 

to or from Las Vegas can thus also potentially impact Barstow’s economy (5,090 x 365). 

• 928,824 were one-way trips assuming equal numbers each way. 

• 2.20 is the estimated number of passengers per vehicle based upon long distance travel.

8

• 2,0434,34 travellers making east-west trips on the I-40 must be added to those potentially 

impacting Barstow’s economy. 

3. Passengers Potentially Impacting Barstow’s Economy (SR-58 east-west) 

Two sites were used to estimate SR-58 east-west travelers who can influence Barstow’s 

economy (Exhibit 18): 

Kramer Junction (just east of U.S. 395), 18.4 miles west of Barstow, to provide data on 

traffic on the SR-58 moving east-west between the city and points east like Bakersfield.

I-15 to SR-58 Interchange in the south end of Barstow as this is where vehicles moving 

between the SR-58 and the north I-15 above Barstow must travel.

Exhibit 18.-Annual Average Two-Way Daily Traffic Flows on SR-58, 2008

Mile City Road Annual Avg. Daily 

Two-Way Vehicles

Annual Avg. Daily 

Truck Count- Share

Annual Avg. 

Daily Passenger 

Vehicles

28.4 Kramer Junction US-395 10,200 3,949 38.7% 6,251

Barstow I-15 to SR-58 7,000 2,710 38.7% 4,290

Net Sr-58 Trips Involving Barstow And Not Moving North-South On I-15 1,961

Source: CalTrans Traffic and Vehicle Data Systems Unit, 2008, All Traffic Volumes on California State Highway System

• 10,200 was the average daily two way traffic at Kramer Junction. Of this, 3,949 was the 

daily truck count or 38.7%. Thus, 6,251 passenger vehicles a day moved east-west on the 

SR-58 at Kramer Junction. Of these, 7,000 vehicles a day, including 2,710 trucks and 

4,290 private passenger vehicles moved either direction between the SR-58 and the north 

I-15 in Barstow. The 4,290 private passenger vehicles were estimated to be already 

counted in #1 which estimated traffic on the I-15 above Barstow.

Note: the 4,290 vehicle deduction is an over-estimate since SR-58 enters the I-15 south of 

Barstow and some of these vehicles would not necessary travel north beyond the city.

• 1,961 private passenger vehicles a day from the SR-58 are thus estimated to not involve a 

trip along the north I-15 above Barstow. 

• 715,801 passengers a year in private SR-58 vehicles are not counted as moving along the 

I-15 above Barstow. They also potentially impact the city’s economy (1,961 x 365). 

• 357,900 were one-way trips assuming equal numbers each way. 

• 2.20 is the estimated number of passengers per vehicle based upon long distance travel.7

• 787,381 travellers making east-west SR-58 trips must be added to those potentially 

impacting Barstow’s economy.

 

8 National Household Travel Survey, U.S. Federal Highway Administration, 2009

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 20

4. Total Passengers Potentially Impacting Barstow’s Economy 

From the calculations above, the private freeway travelers potentially impacting Barstow’s 

economy include: 

• 13,627,877 total private vehicle passengers traversing Barstow going north & south. 

• 2,0434,34 passengers making an east-west I-40 trip. 

• 787,381 passengers making an east-west SR-58 trip.

• 1,180,227 bus passengers estimated by URS to be traversing Barstow on a Las Vegas

trip.

9

• 17,638,119 total passengers a year able to impact Bartow’s economy including those 

moving along I-40 and SR-58 and bus passengers making the trip to Las Vegas. 

Average Spending Per Traveler. A third key variable is average retail spending per traveler in 

Barstow:

1. Based upon the calculations above, average spending per traveler is calculated as: 

• $286,249,289 was Barstow’s freeway-related retail sales (see Exhibit 15, page 11: service 

stations, apparel, eating & drinking, general merchandise, food stores). 

• 17,638,119 is the total number of passengers traversing Bartow including the bus 

passengers making the trip to Las Vegas.

• $16.23 is the per capita spending by all passengers potentially impacting Barstow.

2. Another look at traveler impacts comes from data in URS’s 2005 study.

10.

 Using it, 

average spending per travelers was calculated as:

• $286,249,289 was Barstow’s total freeway-related retail sales (see Exhibit 15)

• 20,416,620 is the total number of passengers potentially impacting Bartow’s economy. 

The URS estimate is higher by 2,777,700 people than was calculated above because of 

higher estimates of:

o 6,668,934 vehicles vs. 5,539,788 a year moving north-south above Barstow 

towards Nevada (difference of 1,129,147) 

o 16,405,578 passengers vs. 13,627,877 a year in those vehicles at 2.46 per vehicle

(difference 2,777,700) 

o Otherwise, this estimate uses the same impacts of the I-40, SR-58 and bus 

travelers: 

 2,0434,34 passengers making an east-west I-40 trip. 

 787,381 passengers making an east-west SR-58 trip. 

 1,180,227 bus passengers estimated to be traversing Barstow on a Las

Vegas trip.

• $14.02 is passenger per capita spending potentially impacting Barstow from URS data. 

 

9 URS, p. 1

10 URS, Table 16, p. 17

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 21

Number of Las Vegas Travelers. A fourth key variable, given the total volume of passengers 

estimated to traverse Barstow north-south, is the estimate of them involved in Las Vegas trips. 

Using data estimated here, total passengers potentially impacting Barstow’s economy, related to 

Las Vegas trips, are calculated as:

• 5,539,788 is the estimated number of private vehicles a year moving one way north-south 

between Barstow and Nevada (see discussion of Exhibit 16, page 13). 

• 80.8% of private vehicles moving north-south on the I-15 above Barstow are assumed to 

involve a Las Vegas trip based on survey work by URS.11

• 4,746,969 is thus the estimated annual number of vehicles due to Las Vegas trips. 

• 2.46 is the estimated number of passengers per vehicle from the URS study. 

• 11,013,344 is thus the estimated number of passengers in private vehicles traversing the 

city because of Las Vegas trips. 

• 1,180,227 bus passengers were also estimated to be making the trip to Las Vegas.

• 12,193,571 is thus the estimated total of private vehicle and bus passengers traversing

Barstow and potentially impacting its economy because of Las Vegas.

DesertXpress Diversion & Sales Tax Impact. Given these data, the fifth key variable is the 

share of passenger traffic moving along the I-15 above (north) Barstow that would be diverted to 

high speed rail by DesertXpress. This allows calculation of estimated sales tax losses to the 

city’s economy.

• Private Auto Auto Diversion 

o 11,013,344 estimated number of private vehicle passengers traversing the city 

because of Las Vegas (see #1, page 16). 

o 18.3% of travelers were estimated to be diverted to DesertXpress in 2017 after 

following its ramp-up phase in 2015 and 2016. The estimate by URS was 

20.3%.12 The Steer Davies Gleave peer reviewers lowered this 10% to 18.3%. 

“We do note, however, that in our analysis we have applied a reduction to base 

demand levels to reflect the number of trips which we believe are undertaken 

during those hours when, under the presently proposed operating plan, the service 

is not operated.”13

That lowering was endorsed by the second peer reviewer, Cambridge Systematics, 

stating that “SDG endorsed the URS overall auto estimates, but in their revised 

forecasting effort they reduced the base demand levels to reflect the number of 

trips that take place during times-of-day that the proposed rail service would not 

be available. This reduction is quite reasonable, in our view.14

o 2,012,138 passengers would be diverted using the 18.3% estimate. 

• Bus Passenger Diversion

 

11 URS, p. 17

12 URS, Table 1, p. 1 for 20.3% 13 DesertXpress Ridership &Revenue Audit, September 2007, Steer Davies Gleave, p. 4. 14 DesertXpress Ridership Forecast Review, February 29, 2008

F-E-21
DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 22

o 1,180,227 bus passengers were estimated to make the trip to Las Vegas.

o 22.0% are estimated by URS to be diverted to DesertXpress.15

o 260,187 would not traverse Barstow by bus. 

• 2,272,325 is the total estimated diversion of Las Vegas private auto and bus passengers 

by DesertXpress.

• $16.23 is the per capita spending by all passengers potentially impacting Barstow (see #1, 

page 15).

• $36,875,921 is the estimated diversion of retail sales from the Barstow economy due to 

DesertXpress.

• $523,101,552 was Barstow’s total retail sales in 2009 (see Exhibit 10, page 8). 

• 7.0% is the loss of Barstow’s retail sales from DesertXpress.

Indirect & Induced Impacts. Using the data created here, the $36,875,921 in sales lost to 

Barstow’s retail sector from passengers being diverted to DesertXpress represents a loss to the 

city’s economic base of funds that would have flowed into it from the outside world. This results 

in a reduced flow of funds from the retail sector to its local suppliers and service firms (indirect 

effect). In addition, there is a reduction of the flow of funds from the retail sector and its 

suppliers and service firms to households, lowering their ability to spend (induced effect). 

Earlier, this was described as being analogous to the impact on general stores and saloons of 

changes in gold mining activity in an Old Western town.

Using the Implan model,16 assuming losses by sector are proportional to total freeway-related 

sales in those sectors (see Exhibt 15) yields the direct (gold mine) losses by sector in 2009 

(Exhibit 19). The job losses are from the Implan model for San Bernardino County and are 

based on the relationship between activity in a sector and the number of jobs this affects. 

Exhibit 19.-Diversion By Sector & Direct Job Impact Barstow, 2009

Sector Diversion Shares Direct Job Losses

Apparel $8,321,041 22.6% 126

General Merchandise $4,382,372 11.9% 71

Food Stores $1,081,978 2.9% 16

Eating & Drinking $6,360,482 17.2% 117

Service Stations $16,730,048 45.4% 171

Total Diversion $36,875,921 100.0% 501

 Sources: Diversion shares from Exhibit 15, Job Losses from Implan model for San Bernardino County

To estimate the indirect and induced impacts of the direct losses of sales and jobs, the difficulty 

is that Implan modeling shows these two impacts for all of San Bernardino County, not just 

Barstow. An allowance must be made for the fact that the county’s economy is far larger 

geographically, and far more diverse economically than Barstow. Monies thus change hands in 

the secondary tier of the county’s economy much more frequently before leaking away than they 

do for the city.

 

15 URS, p. 1

16 Implan Professional Social Accounting Impact & Analysis Software, Minnesota Implan Group

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 23

For the county, the secondary impacts of $36,875,921 in direct new spending affecting it in 2009 

would be $27,184,443 (Exhibit 20). That must be reduced to more closely reflect the secondary 

impact on a small city like Barstow. In 2009, the greater Barstow area (including Daggett, 

Helendale, Hickley, Lynwood, Newberry Springs, Yermo) had 10,463 wage and salary workers 

versus the county’s 600,307 or 1.43%.17 If because of Barstow’s isolation, it is assumed that the 

secondary economic activity in the city was 10 times strong than the relationship of its market 

area’s wage and salary jobs to those of the county, then 17.4% of the secondary impact would 

occur in the city:

Exhibit 20.-Economic Impact on San Bernardino County & Barstow, 2009

Type of Impact SB County Economic Activity SB County Jobs

Direct: $36,875,921 501 

Indirect $8,533,107 60

Induced $18,651,336 173

County Secondary $27,184,443 233

City Factor 17.4% 17.4% 

City Secondary $4,737,938 41

City Total Impact $41,613,859 542

 Sources: Job Losses from Implan model for San Bernardino County

• $4,737,938 of the economic lossses of $27,184,443 calculated as if the secondary impact 

was for the entire county, would be the city’s secondary economic loss. 

• 41 of the job losses of 233 calculated if the secondary impact was for the entire county, 

would be the city’s secondary job impact. 

Given these facts, the diversion of travelers to DesertXpress would result in: 

• $41,613,859 total economic activity lost to Barstow

• 542 jobs lost to Barstow

• -5.2% loss of jobs in the city’s firms and agencies: 542 of the city’s total of 10,463 jobs. 

Exhibit 21.-Income Impacts of DesertXpress Diversion, Barstow, 2009

Labor/Proprietorship Property Total

Direct: $13,473,747 $5,577,541 $19,051,288

Indirect $2,753,722 $1,748,132 $2,753,722

Induced $7,686,859 $3,229,801 $7,686,859

Secondary Impacts $10,440,581 $4,977,933 $10,440,581

Barstow Factor 17.4% 17.4% 17.4%

Secondary Impact $1,819,674 $867,597 $2,687,271

Total Economic Impact $15,293,421 $6,445,138 $21,738,559

Sources: Income Losses from Implan model for San Bernardino County

The Implan model based upon the traveler diversion caused by DesertXpress also found: 

• $13,473,747 direct income impact to Barstow’s workers and proprietors (Exhibit 21) 

• $1,819,674 in indirect and induced impacts to workers and proprietors based upon a 

countywide effect of $10,440,581 with 17.4% occurring within Barstow 

 

17 CA Employment Development Department, ES 202 data for zip codes 92311 and 92312 for 2009

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 24

• $5,577,541 in direct impact to Barstow’s property owners and corporations 

• $867,597 in indirect and induced impact to property owners and corporations based upon 

a countywide effect of $4,977,933 with 17.4% occurring in Barstow 

• $21,738,559 in total income impact on Barstow 

• -4.6% loss of city income: $21,738,559 of the $473,339,937 total (see Exhibit 5, page 5) 

Exhibit 21A.-Indirect Tax Impacts of DesertXpress Diversion, Barstow, 2009

Indirect Taxes Sales Taxes Property Taxes

Direct: Loss Due to Diversion $368,759 $0

Indirect $144,249

Induced $1,012,342 50.0% 50.0%

Secondary Impacts $1,456,591 $728,296 $728,296

All SB County Cities Shares 14.8% 17.1% 

Funds: All SB County Cities $107,896 $124,539

Barstow Share of Co. Activity 17.4% 17.4%

Barstow Indirect Tax Loss $18,805 $21,706

Barstow Total Loss $387,564 $21,706

Barstow Sales & Property Tax $5,231,016 $1,300,598

Percent Loss -7.41% -1.67%

Sources: Indirect Tax Losses from Implan model for San Bernardino Co.; San Bernardion Co. & City Sales Tax Rates; Property 

Valuation and Tax Rates, San Bernardino Co. 2009-2010, San Bernardino Co, Auditor Controller’s Office

Barstow’s local sales and property taxes would also be impacted. The Implan model calculated 

that had the DesertXpress diversions occurred, the 2009 countywide result would have been: 

• $1,456,591 in lower indirect and induced local tax collections if the loss were countywide 

(Exhibit 21A). If this was divided equally between sales and property taxes:

o $728,296 lower sales taxes available to the county’s local governmental entities. 

o $728,296 lower property taxes to the county’s local governmental entities.

• Sales Tax Loss To Barstow

o $107,896 in less sales taxes since $1.00 of $6.75 (14.8%) in local sales taxes went 

to the group of all cities at the time the 2009 Implan model was developed. 

o $18,805 would be the sales tax loss to Barstow applying the 17.4% factor 

disscussed above to the $107,896 in lost indirect and induced countywide taxes.

o $368,759 would be the sales tax loss to due to the direct reduction in taxable retail 

sales of $36,975,921 (see Exhibit 19, page 18) given the 1% tax rate. 

o $387,564 would be Barstow’s total sales tax loss due to DesertXpress.

o -7.4% sales tax revenue loss based upon 2009 sales of $523,101,552 (see Exhibit 

10, page 8) and 1% in sales taxes based on that level of $5,231,016. 

• Property Tax Loss 

o $124,539 in less property tax dollars since 17.1% of San Bernardino County’s 

property tax dollars go to its cities.

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 25

o $21,706 woud be the property tax loss applying Barstow’s 17.4% factor to the 

$124,539 in lowered induced and direct property taxes countywide. 

o -1.7% would be Barstow’s property tax loss based upon the city’s 2009-2010 

assessed valuation of $1,300,597,749, which at a tax rate of $1.00 per $1,000 of 

valuation rate would represent a base property revenue of $1,300,598. 

Exhibit 22.-Summary of Economic Impacts of DesertXpress Diversion

Barstow 2009 or Full Operation (Year 0: 2017)

Impact Loss Base % Loss

Economic Activity $41,613,859

Job Activity 542 10,463 -5.18%

Income $21,738,559 $473,339,937 -4.59%

Sales Taxes $387,564 $5,231,016 -7.41%

Property Taxes $21,706 $1,300,598 -1.67%

Source: Calculations made above by Economics & Politics, Inc.

Timing: Ramp-Up. An important consideration is the timing when Barstow would feel the 

impacts listed in Exhibit 22, as well as what would occur between 2010 and then. Given the 

delays that have occurred due to the Environmental Impact Study, the first year of full operation 

of DesertXpress is now forecasted at 2017. Operations will ramp-up in 2015-2016 (see Exhibit 

24, below): 

• 2015 45.1% of full operation I-15 Passenger Diversion 1,025,024 

• 2016 77.6% of full operation I-15 Passenger Diversion 1,763,617 

• 2017 100.0% of full operation I-15 Passenger Diversion 2,272,325 

Applying these ramp-up shares of passenger diversion to Barstow’s 2009 economy, and using 

the same modeling logic discussed above, the conditions in the 2015 amd 2016 ramp-up years 

are shown in Exhibit 23 and Exhibit 24. 

Exhibit 23.-Summary of Economic Impacts of DesertXpress Diversion

Barstow Ramp Up Year #1 (2015)

Impact Loss Base % City Loss

Economic Activity $18,771,617

Job Activity 244 10,463 -2.33%

Income $11,618,973 $473,339,937 -2.45%

Sales Taxes $174,826 $5,231,016 -3.34%

Property Taxes $9,791 $1,300,598 -0.75%

Exhibit 24-Summary of Economic Impacts of DesertXpress Diversion

Barstow Ramp Up Year #2 (2016)

Impact Loss Base % Loss

Economic Activity $32,297,721

Job Activity 421 10,463 -4.02%

Income $16,871,925 $473,339,937 -3.56%

Sales Taxes $300,800 $5,231,016 -5.75%

Property Taxes $16,846 $1,300,598 -1.30%

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 26

Growth Over Time. Over time, the share of Barstow’s economy impacted by DesertXpress will 

slowly grow. In 17 years of growth, without it, total traffic on the I-15 is anticipated to grow at 

1.66% from the I-40 to the Nevada State Line (Exhibit 25). Adjusting these dates forward to the 

new starting date for full operation of the project, this would take it from 2017 to 2034. 

• Starting with the amount of private vehicle traffic calculated above (north) of Barstow in 

2017, 1.66% is applied as the growth rate in column 1 of Exhibit 27 (page 23) to show 

total volume through 2034. 

• 80.8% is the share of this traffic is assumed throughout 2017 to 2034 to be headed for Las 

Vegas. In column 2 of Exhibit 27, it thus shows the amount of private vehicle traffic 

each year headed for that city.

• 2.46 is the average number of people per vehicle. It is assumed throughout the period. In 

column 3 of Exhibit 27, it shows the number of private vehicle passengers headed for Las 

Vegas from 2017 to 2034. 

• In column 6, Exhibit 27, the total bus passengers on the I-15 north of Barstow starts with 

the number calculated for year 0 in 2017. It then also increases at 1.66% per year. 

Exhibit 25.-Growth of I-15 Traffic Without DesertXpress

2013 (new start: 2017) 2030 (adjusted: 2034) 

AM PM AM PM

No. Bound So. Bound No. Bound So. Bound No. Bound So. Bound No. Bound So. Bound

No. Jct. Stoddard to I-40 3,756 3,147 2,533 5,134 4,777 4,003 3,221 6,529

Jct. I-40 to Nevada State Line 2,842 2,382 1,915 3,881 3,760 3,150 2,537 5,143

No. Jct. Stoddard to I-40 27.2% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2%

Jct. I-40 to Nevada State Line 32.3% 32.2% 32.5% 32.5%

No. Jct. Stoddard to I-40 1.42% 1.43% 1.42% 1.42%

Jct. I-40 to Nevada State Line 1.66% 1.66% 1.67% 1.67%

Source: Traffic Impact Analysis, DesertXpress, DMJM Harris, AECOM, February 2009, Table 3-1, page 3-1 

Once DesertXpress reaches its full operational state in 2017, after its ramp-up phase, the 

anticipation is that its volumes will grow. According to the URS study, the rates of growth of 

private passengers and bus diversion from the I-15 would be (Exhibit 26): 

• 4% compound rate from Year 1 to Year 8 (now: 2017 to 2024) 

• 2.3% from Year 9 to Year 18 (now: 2025 to 2034) 

• 1.2% from Year 19 to Year 29 (now: 2035 to 2045) 

Exhibit 26.-Growth of DesertXpress Diversion of Riders From I-15

Year Auto Bus Year Auto Bus Year Auto Bus

2015 45.1% 45.0% 2025 2.3% 2.3% 2035 1.2% 1.2%

2016 77.6% 77.7% 2026 2.3% 2.3% 2036 1.2% 1.1%

2017 100.0% 100.0% 2027 2.3% 2.5% 2037 1.2% 1.1%

2018 4.0% 4.2% 2028 2.3% 2.2% 2038 1.2% 1.3%

2019 4.0% 3.7% 2029 2.3% 2.4% 2039 1.2% 1.1%

2020 4.0% 4.3% 2030 2.3% 2.1% 2040 1.2% 1.3%

2021 4.0% 3.8% 2031 2.3% 2.3% 2041 1.2% 1.1%

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 27

Year Auto Bus Year Auto Bus Year Auto Bus

2022 4.0% 4.3% 2032 2.3% 2.5% 2042 1.2% 1.3%

2023 4.0% 3.8% 2033 2.3% 2.2% 2043 1.2% 1.3%

2024 4.0% 4.0% 2034 2.3% 2.4% 2044 1.2% 1.0%

2045 1.2% 1.2%

Source: Calculated growth rates based upon data in Desert Xpress Updated Ridership and Revenue Study, URS, December 22, 

2005, Appendix B, Table 15, p. 16; years updated to new forecasted starting date of 2017

• In Exhibit 26, column 4, the number of private auto passengers diverted on to 

DesertXpress starts at the level calculated for year 0 in 2017. It grows at 4.0% to 2024. 

The same growth rates apply to bus passengers in column 7. 

• DesertXpress auto passenger diversion then grows at 2.3% from 2025 to 2034. Again, 

the same growth rates apply to bus passengers in column 7. 

Exhibit 27.-DesertXpress Traveler Diversion, Year 0 (2017) to Year 17 (2034)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 

I-15 No.-So. Las Vegas Las Vegas DesertXpress DesertXpress Las Vegas DesertXpress DesertXpress

4.0% Diversion Bus Bus Diversion

Year Year 1.66% 80.8% 2.46 2.3% Auto See Col. #1 See Col. #4 Bus

Operation Calendar Auto Auto Passengers Passengers Passengers Passengers Passengers Passengers

0 2017 5,539,788 4,476,969 11,013,344 2,012,138 18.3% 1,180,227 260,187 22.0%

1 2018 5,631,748 4,551,287 11,196,165 2,092,623 18.7% 1,199,819 270,594 22.6%

2 2019 5,725,235 4,626,838 11,382,022 2,176,328 19.1% 1,219,736 281,418 23.1%

3 2020 5,820,274 4,703,644 11,570,963 2,263,381 19.6% 1,239,983 292,675 23.6%

4 2021 5,916,890 4,781,724 11,763,041 2,353,917 20.0% 1,260,567 304,382 24.1%

5 2022 6,015,111 4,861,101 11,958,308 2,448,073 20.5% 1,281,493 316,557 24.7%

6 2023 6,114,962 4,941,795 12,156,816 2,545,996 20.9% 1,302,765 329,220 25.3%

7 2024 6,216,470 5,023,829 12,358,619 2,647,836 21.4% 1,324,391 342,388 25.9%

8 2025 6,319,663 5,107,224 12,563,772 2,708,736 21.6% 1,346,376 350,263 26.0%

9 2026 6,424,570 5,192,004 12,772,330 2,771,037 21.7% 1,368,726 358,319 26.2%

10 2027 6,531,218 5,278,191 12,984,351 2,834,771 21.8% 1,391,447 366,561 26.3%

11 2028 6,639,636 5,365,809 13,199,891 2,899,971 22.0% 1,414,545 374,992 26.5%

12 2029 6,749,854 5,454,882 13,419,009 2,966,670 22.1% 1,438,026 383,616 26.7%

13 2030 6,861,901 5,545,433 13,641,765 3,034,904 22.2% 1,461,897 392,440 26.8%

14 2031 6,975,809 5,637,487 13,868,218 3,104,707 22.4% 1,486,165 401,466 27.0%

15 2032 7,091,607 5,731,069 14,098,431 3,176,115 22.5% 1,510,835 410,699 27.2%

16 2033 7,209,328 5,826,205 14,332,465 3,249,165 22.7% 1,535,915 420,145 27.4%

17 2034 7,329,003 5,922,920 14,570,384 3,323,896 22.8% 1,561,411 429,809 27.5%

• Using these data, column 5 of Exhibit 27 shows the percentage diversion of private 

vehicle passengers to DesertXpress from year 0 (2017) to year 17 (2034). For instance: 

o 18.3% in year 0 (2017).

o 21.4% by year 7 (2024) when growth at 4.0% slows. 

o 22.8% by year 17 (2034) when the 2.3% growth ends. 

• Column 8 shows the share of bus passengers captured by DesertXpress. For instance: 

o 22.0% 

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 28

o 25.9% in year 7 (2024) when growth at 4.0% slows. 

o 27.5% in year 17 (2034) when 2.3% growth ends.

Given these results, it is necessary to look at the longer term impact on Barstow’s economy of 

these changes in the impact of DesertXpress. This is done by re-running the Implan model 

increasing the retail sales impact caused by the higher shares of Las Vegas bound private vehicle 

and bus travelers captured by high speed rail. The process looks at Barstow in 2009, but varies 

the share of Las Vegas bound private vehicle and bus passengers that would be captured, using 

the 2024 and 2034 factors calculated above. 

By way of comparison, when the Implan modeling was used for the first year of “normal” 

operations, after ramp-up (year 0: 2017), the result was Exhibit 22 (re-shown). 

Exhibit 22 (re-shown).-Summary of Economic Impacts of DesertXpress Diversion

Barstow 2009 or Full Operation (Year 0: 2017)

Impact Loss Base % Loss

Economic Activity $41,613,859

Job Activity 542 10,463 -5.18%

Income $21,738,559 $473,339,937 -4.59%

Sales Taxes $387,564 $5,231,016 -7.41%

Property Taxes $21,706 $1,300,598 -1.67%

Source: Calculations made above by Economics & Politics, Inc.

Running the Implan model again, but using the 21.4% diversion rate for private vehicles and 

25.9% for bus passengers that were forecasted for year 7, 2024, when the 4.0% growth period 

ends results in Exhibit 28. 

Exhibit 28.-Summary of Economic Impacts of DesertXpress Diversion

Barstow 2009 or Full Operation (Year 7: 2024)

Impact Loss Base % Loss

Economic Activity $48,800,090

Job Activity 636 10,463 -6.07%

Income $25,492,555 $473,339,937 -5.39%

Sales Taxes $454,492 $5,231,016 -8.69%

Property Taxes $25,454 $1,300,598 -1.96%

Source: Calculations made above by Economics & Politics, Inc.

Running the Implan model year another time, but using the 22.8% diversion rate for private 

vehicles and 27.5% for bus passengers that were forecasted for year 7, 2024, both the 4.0% 

growth period and 2.3% growth period have ended results in Exhibit 29. 

Exhibit 29.-Summary of Economic Impacts of DesertXpress Diversion

Barstow 2009 or Full Operation (Year 17: 2034)

Impact Loss Base % Loss

Economic Activity $51,960,809

Job Activity 676 10,463 -6.46%

Income $27,143,674 $473,339,937 -5.73%

Sales Taxes $483,929 $5,231,016 -9.25%

Property Taxes $27,102 $1,300,598 -2.08%

Source: Calculations made above by Economics & Politics, Inc.

These model runs lead to the following conclusions: 

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 29

• Jobs. At full operation in 2017, DesertXpress would impact -5.2% of Barstow’s jobs. In 

2024, 7-years later, that would reach -6.1%. In 2034, 17-years later, it would be -6.5%.

• Income. In 2017, DesertXpress would impact -4.6% of Barstow’s income. In 2024, 

7-years later, that would reach -5.4%. In 2034, 17-years later it would be -5.7%. 

• Sales Tax. In 2017, DesertXpress would impact -7.4% of Barstow’s sales taxes. In 2024, 

7-years later, that would reach -8.7%. In 2034, 17-years later it would be -9.3%.

• Property Tax. In 2017, DesertXpress would impact -1.7% of Barstow’s property taxes. 

In 2024, 7-years later, it would be -2.0%. In 2034, 17-years later it would be -2.1%.

Summary. Based upon these data, DesertXpress would have a downward influence on 

Barstow’s economy. The magnitude for all variables would be less than 10%, ranging from a 

low of -1.7% on property taxes in the first full year of operation during 2017 (six years from 

now), to a high of -9.25% on sales taxes in the 17th year of operations in 2034 (23 years from 

now). Importantly, job losses would represent a high of -6.5% of the greater Barstow area’s 

current 10,463 jobs some 23 years into the future. 

Construction Job Creation

While there will be some job and income loss in Barstow once DesertXpress begins operating, 

there will be significant job generation during the project’s three year construction phase. An 

analysis of the overall impact of this activity was conducted by Thomas Carroll & Associates.18 

In San Bernardino County, that firm’s analysis found that this would include an average of 9,461 

direct jobs per year for three years as well as another 8,900 indirect and induced jobs (Exhibit 

30). Altogether, that would represent an annual average of 18,361 jobs per year for three years.

Exhibit 30.-Job & Payroll Generation, Construction, 

DesertXpress on San Bernardino County, 2012-2014

Direct Indirect & Induced Total

Jobs Payroll Jobs Payroll Jobs Payroll

2012 5,898 $432,063,600 5,548 $307,765,236 11,446 $739,828,836

2013 14,238 $1,080,159,000 13,393 $763,950,588 27,631 $1,844,109,588

2014 8,248 $648,095,400 7,758 $455,791,189 16,006 $1,103,886,589

Annual Average 9,461 $720,106,000 8,900 $509,169,004 18,361 $1,229,275,004

 Source: DesertXxpress: Predicted Employment and Economic Impact Analysis, Thomas Carroll & Assoc., October 11,2010

In addition, the analysis found that the project would have an average annual direct payroll of 

$720 million, with another $509 million induced or created indirectly. For the three year period, 

this would put an extra $1.2 billion a year of wages and salaries into San Bernardino County’s 

economy. 

As Barstow is the nearest city in San Bernardino County to where much of this work will occur, 

it is realistic to assume that a disproportionate share of this money will flow into the city. This 

would be especially true on the 113 mile stretch from Barstow to Primm, Nevada. In 2008, the 

city had 2,139 workers in blue collar sectors (construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, 

trucking, warehousing). Many of them will likely find work on a project of this magnitude. 

Also, it should help with the city’s unemployment rate which stood at 17.0% in October 2010. 

 

18 Desert Express: Predicted Employment and Economic Impact Analysis, October 06,2010

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 30

Even if half the 17.4% factor applied to Bartow’s share of San Bernardino County’s economic 

activity related to its retail sales is used, the impact on the city during the three year construction 

phase would be significant: 

• 1,600 jobs created on average for three years or 8.7% of 18,361 created in the county. 

That would increase employment in the city area by 19.3% over its 2009 level of 10,463. 

• $101,678,937 in payroll reaching the city on average for three years or 8.27% of the 

$1,229,275,004 paid in the county, a gain of 22.6% over the 2008 level of $473,339,937. 

Barstow Housing Market

Another issue of concern is the potential that the loss of retail sales in Barstow, due to the 

diverstion of freeway travelers to DesertXpress, would affect housing values in Barstow. This 

would occur if the city’s housing market was closely tied to fluctuations in the local economy. 

Looking at the data: 

• Barstow’s housing market was relatively static from 1988 to the end of 2002. During this 

period, the volume of existing and new home sales barely fluctuated and averaged just 81 

sales. 

• This shifted during the recent housing bubble as lack of affordability elsewhere in 

Southern California apparently sent buyers to edge markets. The city’s volume thus rose 

as high as 201 seasonally adjusted sales in fourth quarter 2005. 

• From there, the market fell to just 55 sales in fourth quarter 2007, before rebounding to 

109 sales in fourth quarter 2009 and falling off to 73. 

• That third quarter 2010 figure was roughly back to the city’s earlier long term average

(Exhibit 31).

Looking at new and existing home median price in Barstow: 

• They were very stable from 1988 to the end of 2003, averaging $67,353 in this period. 

• This changed during the housing bubble with the median price reaching a high of 

$199,700 in fourth quarter 2006. 

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 31

• From there, the median price ultimately plunged back to its prior long term average, 

reaching a low of $63,373 in second quarter 2010. 

• It rebounded a little to $68,462 in third quarter 2010 (Exhibit 32). 

Interestinly, the fluctuations in Barstow’s housing market are not reflected in employment 

among firms and agencies in the greater Barstow area. From 2000-2009, the total number of 

jobs in Barstow and adjacent unincorporated areas went from 9,747 to 10,439. The job level 

thus rose slowly by 692 positions, a gain of 7.1%. These gains in employment do not reflect the 

wide gyrations in the city’s housing market from 2003-2009 (Exhibit 32). Similarly, the payroll 

released into the greater Barstow market by employers has grown in a relatively stable fashion in 

this decade, increasing by $132 million or 58.4% and exceeding the 30.1% inflation rate (Exhibit 

33). Again, the movement of payroll is not reflective of the major swings in housing volumes 

and prices.

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 32

From these facts, the conclusion is that Barstow’s housing market behavior has been more 

influenced by its unusally low housing prices relative to the rest of San Bernardino County than 

by any movements in the greater Barstow economy. The city’s bargain residential prices were 

seen in third quarter 2010 when its median existing home was at $55,000. That tied Needles as 

the least expensive in San Bernardino County (Exhibit 34).

Even when Barstow’s prices were at their peak in fourth quarter 2006, the city’s median existing 

home price of $192,000 was only higher than extreme outlying Needles ($140,000) and 

Twentynine Palms ($139,000) (Exhiibt 35). It was $90,000-$130,000 below the other High 

Desert cities: Adelanto ($283,000); Apple Valley ($295,048); Hesperia ($310,000), Victorville 

($333,421). 

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 33

Given these data, the conclusion is that Barstow’s housing market is more dependent on its

relative price of housing vis-à-vis other county markets than its internal economy. Certainly, the 

the loss of 676 jobs due to DesertXpress reaching its forecasted level of ridership in 2017 (see 

Exhibit 22, page 21) would not have a major impact on the city’s housing market. The same can 

be said for the 636 jobs forecasted to be lost in 2024 or the 676 by 2034. In fact, the greater 

Barstow economy has seen gains and losses of jobs of this magnitude and more without the 

housing market showing any significant influence from them (Exhibit 36).

Barstow Industrial Park

An important concern for Barstow 

has been the creation of a specific 

plan for the Barstow Industrial 

Park. This 1,200-acre site is in 

the northwest of the city and is 

primarily accessible by Lynwood 

Road along its eastern side. 

It is largely designed for use by 

distribution, trucking and manufacturers with a rail extension to 

it. Wal-Mart has already selected 

147 acres for a 1,078,000 square 

foot distribution center and is 

moving ahead on its development. 

Eventually, the city hopes to see 

10,000 jobs created within the Barstow Industrial Park. 

Barstow was concerned that the DesertXpress line would move through the Barstow Industrial 

Park and therefore interfere with its plans for its development. However, the current plans for 

the rail line no longer call for it to go through this industrial site. That issue is therefore mute.

Barstow Industrial Park

F-E-33
DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 34

Meanwhile, modeling done for the Southern California Association of Governments MultiCounty Goods Movement Study,19 indicate that there will not be a significant flow of 

distribution facilities into the High Desert until roughly 2022. Special cases will arise where 

these outlying markets can draw logistics firms. Generally, they will involve companies needing 

to avoid the Southern California Air Quality Management District, or firms wanting a centralized 

location to supply the ring of regions including Northern and Southern California, Las Vegas and 

Phoenix. These factors, far more than DesertXpress, will impact the success of Barstow 

Industrial Park. 

Summary

To ascertain the impact of DesertXpress on Barstow, this report has looked at the city’s existing 

situation as a relatively remote, smaller economy with a somewhat older population and 

households with very modest income levels and high levels of people on public assistance. To 

date, the city has seen relatively low levels of population, job and income growth. 

As an outlying economy, the report analyzed the 2009 role that retail sales play in Barstow’s 

economic base. In particular, it examined the levels of spending in those retail sectors in which

funds were clearly flowing into the city from the outside world (service stations, apparel, eating 

& drinking, general merchandise, food stores). Since Barstow residents also shop in these 

sectors, estimates were made of their local purchases in them. That work relied heavily on 

household spending patterns by sector from the U.S. Census for western consumers. Also, a 

newly created UCLA database allowed estimates of commercial trucking purchases at service 

stations. With these eliminated, a base was set of the 2009 impact of travelers on the city’s retail 

economy. 

Using 2008-2009 data from Caltrans as well the URS study of DesertXpress, estimates were 

made of the number of passengers in private vehicles and buses who pass through Barstow 

because of the I-15, I-40 and SR-58 freeways. Together with the data on sales in travelerdependent retail sectors, this allowed calculation of the average per capita spending of people 

who could be impacting the city’s retail economy. 

Using the Caltrans data, as well as the URS study, an estimate was next made of passenger 

travelers involved in 2009 trips to or from Nevada as well as the share of those trips that likely 

involved people going specifically to Las Vegas. Very importantly, it was the share of these 

travelers that URS estimated would be reduced because of DesertXpress. 

This analysis used the URS percentage for private vehicles, 20.3%, but lowered it by 10% to 

18.3%, in accordance with the findings of peer reviewer Steer Davies Gleave supported by peer 

reviewer Cambridge Systematics. Day travel to Las Vegas that would be induced and captured 

by DesertXpress was not included since it would not represent a decrease from current travel 

patterns. The 22.0% estimate of bus traveler diversion by URS was also used. These 

calculations allowed estimates of the sales by retail sector that would have been lost to Barstow 

had DesertXpress been in its year 0, 2017 full operational mode. 

Given the loss of funds calculated from Barstow’s economy base, the standard Implan model 

used by economists for outlying economies was used to estimate the full direct, indirect and 

induced effects on economic activity, jobs, income, sales and property taxes of DesertXpress on 

 

19 SCAG Goods Movement Task 5, Industrial Space in Southern California: Future Supply and Demand for 

Warehousing and Intermodal Facilities, Final Draft Report, April 15, 2010

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 35

the city had they occurred in 2009. This was used as the year 0, 2017 level of impact. Prior to 

that, there would be two ramp-up years in 2015 and 2016, as people become aware of the high 

speed rail system. The lower levels of impact in those two years were thus estimated.

Looking longer term, traffic data from DMJM Harris, AECOM allowed the calculation that 

DesertXpress’s customer base is forecasted to grow faster than freeway traffic along the I-15 

from Barstow to Nevada. Using the I-15 growth factors found by these traffic consultants for a 

17 year period, and comparing them to URS’s estimates of the rate of growth of DesertXpress’s 

customer base, allowed estimates of the growing share of private vehicle and bus passengers that 

would use high speed rail. Those estimates were used to calculate the impact of DesertXpress on 

Barstow in year 7 (2024) and year 17 (2034).

In contrast to the impacts of traveler diversion on Barstow’s economy during 2015-2017, 2024 

and 2034, the analysis also looked at the effect on wage and salary jobs and payroll during the 

construction phase for DesertXpress. This work relied upon information created by Thomas 

Carroll & Associates, led by a professor at UNLV. 

Two other concerns about the impact of DesertXpress were also examined: its impact on the 

city’s housing market and the city’s new Barstow Industrial Park. 

F-E-35
DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 36

Appendix A

Consumer Spending By Sector

F-E-36
DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 37

Consumer Use of Income, By Income Group, By Category, Western U.S., 2009

Barstow Households 0 467 890 666 842 771 663 1,665 2,338 8,302

Income Group Total West Under 

$5,000

$5,000 to 

$9,999

$10,000 to 

$14,999

$15,000 to 

$19,999

$20,000 to 

$29,999

$30,000 to 

$39,999

$40,000 to 

$49,999

$50,000 to 

$69,999

$70,000 & 

More Taxable

Income before taxes $66,678 ($8,788) $7,999 $12,660 $17,504 $24,861 $34,704 $44,727 $59,188 $129,513

Income after taxes $64,360 ($9,138) $8,174 $12,942 $17,548 $25,260 $34,741 $43,969 $58,227 $123,335

Annual expenditures $54,226 $28,348 $22,256 $24,998 $26,559 $31,977 $38,290 $43,112 $52,524 $85,133

Food at home $4,081 $2,665 $2,485 $3,105 $2,658 $3,159 $3,162 $3,764 $3,893 $5,482 0.0%

Food away from home $2,889 $1,495 $1,080 $1,165 $1,115 $1,499 $1,994 $2,457 $2,793 $4,637 100.0%

Alcoholic beverages $524 $562 $246 $271 $94 $225 $381 $525 $548 $794 100.0%

Mortgage interest $5,200 $2,677 $1,094 $1,004 $1,055 $1,950 $2,442 $3,396 $4,930 $9,744 0.0%

Property taxes $1,562 $842 $405 $571 $615 $821 $887 $1,145 $1,413 $2,693 0.0%

Maintenance, repairs, 

 

$1,136 $659 $485 $519 $598 $802 $667 $687 $1,060 $1,837 0.0%

Rented dwellings $3,951 $3,489 $4,683 $3,946 $4,697 $4,552 $4,827 $4,643 $4,033 $3,133 0.0%

Other lodging $700 $308 $174 $135 $188 $276 $295 $325 $465 $1,433 0.0%

Natural gas $444 $277 $204 $242 $248 $349 $368 $439 $454 $603 0.0%

Electricity $1,148 $711 $648 $725 $841 $910 $1,036 $1,046 $1,205 $1,480 0.0%

Fuel oil & other fuels $67 $89 $46 $37 $73 $62 $73 $42 $71 $76 0.0%

Telephone services $1,127 $654 $630 $643 $737 $880 $983 $1,092 $1,206 $1,471 0.0%

Public services $570 $347 $236 $308 $344 $363 $444 $524 $578 $823 0.0%

Personal services $428 $195 $62 $121 $338 $161 $188 $152 $398 $796 0.0%

Other household cost $718 $447 $234 $298 $492 $414 $451 $509 $558 $1,204 50.0%

Cleaning supplies $153 $71 $104 $129 $90 $121 $120 $134 $165 $198 100.0%

Other household $312 $136 $181 $275 $168 $182 $227 $247 $304 $456 100.0%

Postage and stationery $172 $209 $50 $114 $99 $167 $115 $138 $171 $231 50.0%

Household textiles $148 $241 $30 $81 $53 $88 $58 $89 $155 $241 100.0%

Furniture $358 $116 $175 $178 $217 $162 $176 $240 $318 $618 100.0%

Floor coverings $32 $8 $29 $5 $21 $11 $17 $27 $13 $63 100.0%

Major appliances $219 $63 $96 $92 $84 $116 $131 $190 $225 $354 100.0%

Small appliances, misc. $124 $178 $47 $46 $66 $73 $58 $96 $80 $214 100.0%

Other household equip. $837 $347 $294 $507 $390 $370 $598 $857 $646 $1,363 100.0%

Apparel and services $1,866 $718 $609 $1,777 $1,120 $1,137 $1,233 $1,411 $1,744 $2,818 100.0%

Vehicle purchases $2,558 $895 $697 $751 $934 $1,679 $2,487 $1,833 $2,920 $3,845 100.0%

Gasoline and motor oil $2,347 $1,162 $1,100 $1,059 $1,246 $1,612 $1,932 $2,324 $2,560 $3,277 100.0%

Vehicle finance charges $296 $65 $70 $99 $73 $131 $227 $307 $338 $468 0.0%

Maintenance & repairs $860 $381 $292 $316 $459 $533 $670 $769 $972 $1,263 25.0%

Vehicle insurance $965 $106 $133 $577 $827 $556 $949 $843 $1,279 $1,224 0.0%

Other Vehicle costs $527 $213 $156 $179 $180 $289 $301 $498 $453 $898 0.0%

Public transportation $673 $383 $602 $198 $266 $271 $329 $358 $531 $1,234 0.0%

Health insurance $1,646 $1,249 $802 $1,035 $1,233 $1,255 $1,522 $1,465 $1,653 $2,156 0.0%

Medical services $885 $437 $343 $288 $405 $482 $739 $748 $1,095 $1,287 0.0%

Drugs $450 $371 $231 $249 $408 $407 $508 $446 $414 $534 0.0%

Medical supplies $112 $128 $45 $50 $48 $102 $56 $96 $113 $163 100.0%

Fees and admissions $739 $429 $160 $188 $178 $285 $420 $499 $466 $1,440 0.0%

Audio and visual $1,013 $693 $413 $456 $504 $609 $799 $838 $1,135 $1,478 75.0%

Pets, toys, hobbies, $861 $393 $207 $336 $317 $495 $444 $536 $631 $1,580 100.0%

Other entertainment $584 $291 $221 $138 $92 $255 $399 $491 $824 $888 75.0%

Personal care products $687 $427 $275 $326 $372 $400 $462 $513 $598 $1,113 100.0%

Reading $131 $81 $42 $64 $84 $83 $81 $104 $121 $204 100.0%

Education $960 $1,098 $734 $637 $324 $474 $394 $438 $600 $1,749 0.0%

Tobacco products $268 $212 $217 $228 $264 $286 $296 $296 $299 $250 100.0%

Miscellaneous $965 $319 $222 $348 $285 $539 $732 $727 $1,026 $1,565 100.0%

Cash contributions $1,954 $847 $553 $659 $839 $704 $1,092 $1,372 $2,060 $3,379 0.0%

Life and other insurance $263 $57 $91 $70 $55 $95 $122 $136 $233 $512 0.0%

Pensions and SSI $5,717 $607 $324 $452 $764 $1,583 $2,396 $3,301 $4,776 $11,866 0.0%

Total $54,227 $28,348 $22,257 $24,997 $26,558 $31,975 $38,288 $43,113 $52,523 $85,135

Source: Table 34. Western region by income before taxes: Average annual expenditures and characteristics, Consumer Expenditure Survey, 

2008-2009,U.S. Census Bureau; Taxable shares from Economics & Politics Inc. using CA Board of Equalization definitions

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 38

Calculation of Spending By Sector

Taxable

$5,000 to 

$9,999

$10,000 to 

$14,999

$15,000 to 

$19,999

$20,000 to 

$29,999

$30,000 to 

$39,999

$40,000 to 

$49,999

$50,000 to 

$69,999

$70,000 & 

More

Income before taxes Barstow 

Estimated

Barstow 

Actual

Income after taxes $3,817,258 $11,518,380 $11,686,968 $21,268,920 $26,785,311 $29,151,447 $96,947,955 $288,357,23

0

$489,533,469 $473,339,937

Annual expenditures $10,393,552 $22,248,220 $17,688,294 $26,924,634 $29,521,590 $28,583,256 $87,452,460 $199,040,95

4

$421,852,960 Taxable

Food at home 0% $1,160,495 $2,763,450 $1,770,228 $2,659,878 $2,437,902 $2,495,532 $6,481,845 $12,816,916 $32,586,246 $0

Food away from home 100% $504,360 $1,036,850 $742,590 $1,262,158 $1,537,374 $1,628,991 $4,650,345 $10,841,306 $22,203,974 $22,203,974

Alcoholic beverages 100% $114,882 $241,190 $62,604 $189,450 $293,751 $348,075 $912,420 $1,856,372 $4,018,744 $4,018,744

Mortgage interest 0% $510,898 $893,560 $702,630 $1,641,900 $1,882,782 $2,251,548 $8,208,450 $22,781,472 $38,873,240 $0

Property taxes 0% $189,135 $508,190 $409,590 $691,282 $683,877 $759,135 $2,352,645 $6,296,234 $11,890,088 $0

Maintenance, repairs, 

 

0% $226,495 $461,910 $398,268 $675,284 $514,257 $455,481 $1,764,900 $4,294,906 $8,791,501 $0

Rented dwellings 0% $2,186,961 $3,511,940 $3,128,202 $3,832,784 $3,721,617 $3,078,309 $6,714,945 $7,324,954 $33,499,712 $0

Other lodging 0% $81,258 $120,150 $125,208 $232,392 $227,445 $215,475 $774,225 $3,350,354 $5,126,507 $0

Natural gas 0% $95,268 $215,380 $165,168 $293,858 $283,728 $291,057 $755,910 $1,409,814 $3,510,183 $0

Electricity 0% $302,616 $645,250 $560,106 $766,220 $798,756 $693,498 $2,006,325 $3,460,240 $9,233,011 $0

Fuel oil & other fuels 0% $21,482 $32,930 $48,618 $52,204 $56,283 $27,846 $118,215 $177,688 $535,266 $0

Telephone services 0% $294,210 $572,270 $490,842 $740,960 $757,893 $723,996 $2,007,990 $3,439,198 $9,027,359 $0

Public services 0% $110,212 $274,120 $229,104 $305,646 $342,324 $347,412 $962,370 $1,924,174 $4,495,362 $0

Personal services 0% $28,954 $107,690 $225,108 $135,562 $144,948 $100,776 $662,670 $1,861,048 $3,266,756 $0

Other household cost 50% $109,278 $265,220 $327,672 $348,588 $347,721 $337,467 $929,070 $2,814,952 $5,479,968 $2,739,984

Cleaning supplies 100% $48,568 $114,810 $59,940 $101,882 $92,520 $88,842 $274,725 $462,924 $1,244,211 $1,244,211

Other household 100% $84,527 $244,750 $111,888 $153,244 $175,017 $163,761 $506,160 $1,066,128 $2,505,475 $2,505,475

Postage and stationery 50% $23,350 $101,460 $65,934 $140,614 $88,665 $91,494 $284,715 $540,078 $1,336,310 $668,155

Household textiles 100% $14,010 $72,090 $35,298 $74,096 $44,718 $59,007 $258,075 $563,458 $1,120,752 $1,120,752

Furniture 100% $81,725 $158,420 $144,522 $136,404 $135,696 $159,120 $529,470 $1,444,884 $2,790,241 $2,790,241

Floor coverings 100% $13,543 $4,450 $13,986 $9,262 $13,107 $17,901 $21,645 $147,294 $241,188 $241,188

Major appliances 100% $44,832 $81,880 $55,944 $97,672 $101,001 $125,970 $374,625 $827,652 $1,709,576 $1,709,576

Small appliances, misc. 100% $21,949 $40,940 $43,956 $61,466 $44,718 $63,648 $133,200 $500,332 $910,209 $910,209

Other household equip. 100% $137,298 $451,230 $259,740 $311,540 $461,058 $568,191 $1,075,590 $3,186,694 $6,451,341 $6,451,341

Apparel and services 100% $284,403 $1,581,530 $745,920 $957,354 $950,643 $935,493 $2,903,760 $6,588,484 $14,947,587 $14,947,587

Vehicle purchases 100% $325,499 $668,390 $622,044 $1,413,718 $1,917,477 $1,215,279 $4,861,800 $8,989,610 $20,013,817 $20,013,817

Gasoline and motor oil 100% $513,700 $942,510 $829,836 $1,357,304 $1,489,572 $1,540,812 $4,262,400 $7,661,626 $18,597,760 $18,597,760

Vehicle finance charges 0% $32,690 $88,110 $48,618 $110,302 $175,017 $203,541 $562,770 $1,094,184 $2,315,232 $0

Maintenance & repairs 25% $136,364 $281,240 $305,694 $448,786 $516,570 $509,847 $1,618,380 $2,952,894 $6,769,775 $1,692,444

Vehicle insurance 0% $62,111 $513,530 $550,782 $468,152 $731,679 $558,909 $2,129,535 $2,861,712 $7,876,410 $0

Other Vehicle costs 0% $72,852 $159,310 $119,880 $243,338 $232,071 $330,174 $754,245 $2,099,524 $4,011,394 $0

Public transportation 0% $281,134 $176,220 $177,156 $228,182 $253,659 $237,354 $884,115 $2,885,092 $5,122,912 $0

Health insurance 0% $374,534 $921,150 $821,178 $1,056,710 $1,173,462 $971,295 $2,752,245 $5,040,728 $13,111,302 $0

Medical services 0% $160,181 $256,320 $269,730 $405,844 $569,769 $495,924 $1,823,175 $3,009,006 $6,989,949 $0

Drugs 0% $107,877 $221,610 $271,728 $342,694 $391,668 $295,698 $689,310 $1,248,492 $3,569,077 $0

Medical equip & supply 100% $21,015 $44,500 $31,968 $85,884 $43,176 $63,648 $188,145 $381,094 $859,430 $859,430

Fees and admissions 0% $74,720 $167,320 $118,548 $239,970 $323,820 $330,837 $775,890 $3,366,720 $5,397,825 $0

Audio and visual 75% $192,871 $405,840 $335,664 $512,778 $616,029 $555,594 $1,889,775 $3,455,564 $7,964,115 $5,973,086

Pets, toys, hobbies, 100% $96,669 $299,040 $211,122 $416,790 $342,324 $355,368 $1,050,615 $3,694,040 $6,465,968 $6,465,968

Other entertainment 75% $103,207 $122,820 $61,272 $214,710 $307,629 $325,533 $1,371,960 $2,076,144 $4,583,275 $3,437,456

Personal care products 100% $128,425 $290,140 $247,752 $336,800 $356,202 $340,119 $995,670 $2,602,194 $5,297,302 $5,297,302

Reading 100% $19,614 $56,960 $55,944 $69,886 $62,451 $68,952 $201,465 $476,952 $1,012,224 $1,012,224

Education 0% $342,778 $566,930 $215,784 $399,108 $303,774 $290,394 $999,000 $4,089,162 $7,206,930 $0

Tobacco products 100% $101,339 $202,920 $175,824 $240,812 $228,216 $196,248 $497,835 $584,500 $2,227,694 $2,227,694

Miscellaneous 100% $103,674 $309,720 $189,810 $453,838 $564,372 $482,001 $1,708,290 $3,658,970 $7,470,675 $7,470,675

Cash contributions 0% $258,251 $586,510 $558,774 $592,768 $841,932 $909,636 $3,429,900 $7,900,102 $15,077,873 $0

Life and other insurance 0% $42,497 $62,300 $36,630 $79,990 $94,062 $90,168 $387,945 $1,197,056 $1,990,648 $0

Pensions and SSI 0% $151,308 $402,280 $508,824 $1,332,886 $1,847,316 $2,188,563 $7,952,040 $27,742,708 $42,125,925 $0

Total $10,394,019 $22,247,330 $17,687,628 $26,922,950 $29,520,048 $28,583,919 $87,450,795 $199,045,63

0

$421,852,319 $134,599,293

Green = Sectors Bringing Money Into Barstow

Source: Economics & Politics, Inc.

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DesertXpress Impact On Barstow Page 39

Calculation of Local Spending By Sector

Sector Taxable Sector Local Spending Amount

Food away from $22,203,974 Eat & Drinking 100% $22,203,974

Alcoholic beverages $4,018,744 Food Store 50% $2,009,372

Other household cost $2,739,984 Food Stores 75% $2,054,988

Cleaning supplies $1,244,211 Food Stores 100% $1,244,211

Other household $2,505,475 Food Stores 100% $2,505,475

Stationery $668,155 Food Stores 25% $167,039

Household textiles $1,120,752 General Merchandise 95% $1,064,714

Furniture $2,790,241 General Merchandise 50% $1,395,121

Floor coverings $241,188 General Merchandise 50% $120,594

Major appliances $1,709,576 General Merchandise 95% $1,624,097

Small appliances, $910,209 General Merchandise 100% $910,209

Other household $6,451,341 General Merchandise 100% $6,451,341

Apparel and services $14,947,587 Apparel 100% $14,947,587

Gasoline and motor $18,597,760 Gas Station 100% $18,597,760

Maintenance & $1,692,444 Gas Station 50% $846,222

Medical equip & $859,430 General Merchandise 50% $429,715

Audio and visual $5,973,086 General Merchandise 25% $1,493,272

Pets, toys, hobbies, $6,465,968 General Merchandise 50% $3,232,984

Other entertainment $3,437,456 General Merchandise 50% $1,718,728

Personal care $5,297,302 General Merchandise 75% $3,972,977

Tobacco products $2,227,694 Food Store 95% $2,116,309

Miscellaneous $7,470,675 General Merch./Food 25%-25% $1,867,669

Total $134,599,293 $92,842,026

 Source: Green Sectors from Previous Table

Local Purchases In Traveler Related Sectors

Freeway Related Sector Local Purchases

Gas Station $19,443,982

Apparel $14,947,587

Eating & Drinking $22,203,974

Gen Merchandise $19,878,729

Food Stores $16,367,754

Total $92,842,026

 Source: Calculations from table above

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