Analysis of the Timber Situation 

in Florida, 1995 to 2025

Roger C. Conner and Raymond M. Sheffield

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Forest Service

Southern

Research Station

Research Paper

SRS–42
Cover photo: Loblolly pine stand. (Photo by Bill Lea.)

Authors:

September 2006

Southern Research Station

P.O. Box 2680

Asheville, NC 28802

Roger C. Conner, Research Forester, USDA Forest Service, 

Southern Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis, 

Knoxville, TN; Raymond M. Sheffield, Supervisory Research 

Forester, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, 

Forest Inventory and Analysis, Asheville, NC
Analysis of the Timber Situation 

in Florida, 1995 to 2025

Roger C. Conner and Raymond M. Sheffield

Contents

 Page

Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 1

Methods.................................................................................................................................................. 1

Defining Supply and Demand ............................................................................................................... 2

Base Yield Tables ................................................................................................................................... 2

Model Assumptions ............................................................................................................................... 2

Projection Assumptions ......................................................................................................................... 2

Defining Harvest Scenarios.................................................................................................................... 3

Estimates of Timberland Area: Past Trends and Projected Changes...................................................... 3

Trends in Forest-Management Types by Ownership.............................................................................. 5

Results .................................................................................................................................................... 6

Growth, Removals, and Harvest Requests............................................................................................. 6

Projections for Southern Yellow Pine..................................................................................................... 6

Projections of Pine Harvest Requests by Owner Group ....................................................................... 6

Projections for Hardwoods..................................................................................................................... 13

Projections of Hardwood Harvest Requests by Owner Group .............................................................. 13

Impacts on Growing-Stock Volume ....................................................................................................... 14

Discussion.............................................................................................................................................. 15

Literature Cited.................................................................................................................................. 17

iii

1

Abstract

The nationwide demand for wood fiber is expected to increase in the 

foreseeable future. Harvesting restrictions on forest lands in the West have 

increased pressure on the South’s forest resources to provide more wood. 

The ability of Florida and other Southern States to respond is uncertain. 

The authors describe the extent, condition, and availability of Florida’s 

timber resource, and they project levels of growing-stock volume, net 

annual growth, and annual removals to the year 2025. Those projections 

are based on future timber demand, as reflected in harvest requests. The 

extent of the State’s timber resource is determined by 1995 estimates of 

forested acres and the rate at which acres are being added or removed from 

the timber base due to natural or human-caused activities. Forest condition 

is represented by annual rates of growth and mortality and their combined 

effect on levels of timber volume. Timber availability is largely dictated 

by ownership holdings and, for the purposes of this paper, by the age of 

forest stands. Future timber harvest requests for Florida are derived from 

projections of estimated removals throughout the South as documented 

in the 1993 Resources Planning Act report. The Aggregate Timberland 

Assessment System (ATLAS) was the model used to project future estimates of growing stock, net growth, and removals in response to harvest 

requests. Overall, the projections suggest that Florida is well positioned to 

meet increased demand for wood, in spite of an expected shortfall of available southern yellow pine volume on forest-industry timberland by 2010. 

However, crucial factors influencing future timber availability in Florida are 

retaining the current timber base and working with ever-changing public 

expectations of forest-management practices.

Keywords: ATLAS simulations, FIA, final harvest, forest industry, forestmanagement types, harvest scenarios, nonindustrial private owners, partial 

cutting, public, timber projections, yield tables. 

Introduction

The nationwide demand for wood fiber is expected to 

increase well into the future. Although the United States is 

rich in forest resources, not all those resources are readily 

available. Harvest restrictions on national forest timberland, 

particularly in the West, have severely limited the supply 

of wood cut from public lands. Such reductions in harvest 

elsewhere have increased the demand for timber in the South 

(Prestemon and Abt 2002). The potential to produce more 

wood in the future depends to some degree on the extent 

and condition of Florida’s timber resource, as well as the 

future availability of trees for harvest. The extent of the 

State’s timber resource is determined by estimates of current 

(1995) forested acres and the rate at which acres are being 

added or removed from the timber base due to natural or 

human causes. Forest condition is evaluated by annual rates 

of growth and mortality and their combined effect on levels 

Analysis of the Timber Situation 

in Florida, 1995 to 2025

Roger C. Conner and Raymond M. Sheffield

of timber volume. Timber availability is largely dictated by 

ownership and, for the purposes of this paper, by the age of 

forest stands. 

Based on the most recent (1995) Forest Inventory and 

Analysis (FIA) estimates, Florida ranked 7th among all 

13 Southern States in total timberland area, with 14.6 

million acres (Brown 1996). The State’s 7.4 million acres 

of softwoods, including 4.6 million acres of planted pine, 

represent 8 percent of the total area of softwoods in the 

South. Volume of growing stock in Florida amounted to 

15.4 billion cubic feet in 1995. Reported estimates of 

annual removals from growing stock averaged 560.7 million 

cubic feet and accounted for 9 percent of removals from all 

Southern States. These data illustrate Florida’s importance to 

the South’s timber industry. We analyze the timber situation 

in Florida as of 1995 and project timber inventory, growth, 

and removals levels for the next 30 years in response to 

expected changes in demand for wood. Our primary objective was to determine whether Florida’s timberland resource 

could supply the volume of wood needed to meet projected 

increases in demand. Results from this study will serve as 

a baseline to assess changes in the state’s timber supplyand-demand situation as new annual inventory data become 

available. 

Methods

We used the Aggregate Timberland Assessment System 

(ATLAS) to project timber inventory. ATLAS is a timebased deterministic timber projection model originally 

developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest 

Service to provide projections for the 1989 national timber 

assessment (Mills and Kincaid 1992). Basic data requirements to run an ATLAS simulation include an initial inventory, a base yield table, and projected future harvest levels. 

To accurately adjust and project the estimate of available 

wood volume, it is necessary to forecast changes in Florida’s 

timber base. Projected changes in the State’s timberland area 

are taken from results of “The South’s Fourth Forest” report 

(U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service 1988). We 

updated the area projections in that report based on data 

from the 1995 survey of Florida (Brown 1996) conducted by 

the Southern Research Station’s FIA Research Work Unit. 
2

We provide data from the 1980, 1987, and 1995 FIA surveys 

to establish trends and to compare our projected estimates 

of area, volume, growth, and removals with past levels 

to gauge relative change. The 1995 FIA survey data also 

serve the more important function as baseline estimates of 

growing-stock volume, timberland area, changes in land use, 

net annual growth, and annual removals. We aggregated the 

1995 inventory data into three strata, or forest-management 

types, based on ownership, differences in growth and yield, 

and harvest options, all arrayed by 5-year age classes. The 

three forest-management types developed for this analysis 

are planted pine/oak-pine, natural pine/oak-pine, and hardwood. The pine management types include only southern 

yellow pine species. All other softwoods—composed almost 

entirely of cypress—are included in the hardwood management type. Cypress is typically managed and processed 

much like hardwood species and occurs primarily in stands 

classed as hardwood forest types. Management types are 

defined for each ownership group: nonindustrial private 

forest (NIPF), forest industry, and public. The two primary 

ownerships that comprise the public ownership group are 

national forest and other public. The latter includes State, 

county, and municipal holdings. Rather than project the 

demand for wood from each, we combined national forest 

and other public into a single ownership group. 

Defining Supply and Demand 

Each ATLAS simulation requires estimates of wood supply 

and demand. In traditional timber supply studies, definitions for supply and demand typically include economic 

criteria that account for consumer and producer responses to 

price changes (Prestemon and Abt 2002). However, in this 

assessment we do not consider the influence of price on the 

amount of wood consumed or produced. Instead, we use the 

projected demand for wood volume, which is represented by 

estimates of future harvest requests. Future harvest requests 

for Florida were derived from projected estimates of 

removals volume for the entire Southeast, as documented in 

the 1993 Resources Planning Act update (Haynes and others 

1995). The percent change in regional removals levels, 

calculated for each 5-year projection period, was applied 

directly to Florida. For example, if projected softwood 

removals for the entire Southeast increased by 15 percent 

over a given 5-year period, then the projected harvest 

request, or demand for pine removals volume from Florida 

was increased by the same percentage. The supply side of 

each simulation is represented by the removals volume cut 

from available inventory in response to a particular projected 

harvest request. When removals volume equals requested 

harvest volume, we assume that supply equals demand. 

A shortfall occurs when the available removals volume 

(supply) is less than the harvest request (demand).

Base Yield Tables

The ATLAS model requires a base yield table for each 

management unit. Yield tables were derived by combining 

volumes per acre by age class using data from the 1995 

and 1987 inventories of Florida. A weighted mean volume 

per acre yield table was calculated for pine/oak-pine and 

hardwood forest-management types. The yield table for the 

planted pine forest-management type was derived using 

data from the 1995 survey alone. Basing yields for planted 

pine on the latest (1995) survey alone was done to capture 

any recent improvements in stand productivity attributable 

to genetic improvement or other intensive management 

practices. 

Model Assumptions

ATLAS relies on the assumption that stand density follows 

an “approach to normal” concept. This means that over time, 

stand stocking will approach an equilibrium or maximum 

density characteristic of a normal undisturbed stand (Husch 

and others 1982). This assumption allows for development 

of density change functions which adjust stand stocking 

and “grows” the stand over time. Projected volume is found 

by applying the projected stocking to the yield table value 

in the next older age class. We used resource data from the 

1986 and 1995 surveys in Florida to develop regression 

coefficients for density-change equations. We developed 

specific equation coefficients for the pine and hardwood 

stands within each ownership group. A detailed description 

of the development and use of density-change equations is 

provided by Mills and Kincaid (1992). 

Projection Assumptions

We assumed that all of Florida’s nonreserved timberland 

acres were available for timber production and harvest. 

Availability constraints due to adverse terrain, permanent 

water or temporary flooding, tract size, restricted-use areas, 

owner attitudes, timber quality, or other factors that might 

limit harvesting or prohibit logging entirely were not considered. Obviously, eliminating acres from Florida’s timber 

base would reduce the volume available for harvest, which 

would limit the State’s ability to meet future increases in the 

demand. Brown (1990) estimated that adverse sites alone 

could restrict or preclude timber management on as much as 

10 percent of the total timberland area in five Southeastern 

States. Estimates from the 1995 FIA survey show > 927,000 

acres of forest land as having adverse sites where management opportunities are severely limited due to poor drainage. 

Using the 1995 statewide average of 1,049 cubic feet of 

growing-stock volume per acre, “unavailable” volume on 

these acres would total as much as 973.6 million cubic feet. 
3

Therefore, the volume and estimated future timber inventory 

we report may show a greater supply of wood than would 

be available if adverse sites and other timber availability 

constraints were considered. 

Defining Harvest Scenarios

ATLAS provides four harvesting options: partial cutting, 

final harvest, thinning, and volume recovery from area 

loss. Area loss occurs when acres are removed from the 

timber base due to conversion of forest land to nonforest—

primarily to urban or agricultural land uses. The partial 

cutting harvest option simulates an oldest first harvest 

method, removing the oldest trees from a mixed-age stand. 

Final harvest simulates clearcutting. The volume removed 

by partial cutting or final harvest is done in direct response 

to the requested harvest volume (demand). Thinning and 

recovery volumes are acre-dependent, that is, volume 

removed depends on number of acres thinned or “lost” and 

volume per acre. Thinning and recovery from area loss occur 

first and occur regardless of the requested harvest volume. 

Volume harvested from lost acres reduces the partial cutting 

and final harvest volume needed to meet demand. Removals 

volume from all four of the harvest methods counts toward 

fulfilling the harvest request for each projection period.

We established a harvest scenario for each ownership and 

forest-management type. Each harvest scenario was derived 

from trends in timber management activity indicated by 

recent FIA surveys. Based on those trends, the scenario 

defined for NIPF timberland included one thinning on a 

portion of the planted pine/oak-pine acres and a final harvest 

on the remaining acres in that management type. Acres of 

the natural pine/oak-pine and hardwood forest-management 

types on NIPF timberland underwent either partial cutting 

or a final harvest. For forest industry lands, past management activity indicated that a partial cutting harvest option 

would be an appropriate harvest scenario for both the natural 

pine/oak-pine and hardwood forest-management types. Past 

activity also dictated that a small percentage of industryowned planted pine/oak-pine stands would be thinned. 

Additional forest industry acres cut to fulfill harvest requests 

underwent a final harvest. Based on predominant harvest 

activity shown in past surveys, a final harvest was the only 

option used for all forest-management types under public 

ownership.

Stands considered available for harvest were those that met 

the minimum harvest age—determined from past management activity—set for each ownership and management 

type. We found 18 years to be the minimum harvest age for 

planted pine/oak-pine stands on NIPF and forest industry 

timberland. Natural pine/oak-pine stands under both NIPF 

and forest industry ownership had to be at least 28 years old, 

and hardwood stands were considered available at 38 years. 

Minimum harvest ages for the three management types on 

public timberland were 23, 33, and 43 years, respectively.

Estimates of Timberland Area: Past

Trends and Projected Changes

Changes in Florida’s timberland area affect the supply and 

availability of wood. Timberland area in Florida is expected 

to gradually decline. Total timberland area in the State 

dropped from 18.1 million acres in 1952 (U.S. Department 

of Agriculture Forest Service 1988) to 14.7 million acres 

by 1995 (Brown 1996). Beyond 1995, projections show a 

reduction of 839,000 acres by 2025, down to 13.8 million 

acres. Factors in the reduction are many and varied, but 

urban development has been a primary reason for the change 

in land use in the past and likely will remain as a major 

factor (Alig and others 1986, De Steiguer and others 1989). 

If Florida’s population continues to increase, then demands 

on the State’s forest resources to provide homesites, recreation activities, and other amenities also will likely increase. 

These pressures, coupled with a shrinking forest land base, 

will make the task of maintaining a sustainable supply of 

raw material for traditional timber products all the more 

challenging.

Changes in species composition and stand origin also 

affect timber availability. Our study shows these changes as 

shifts in the distribution of timberland acres among natural 

stands, planted stands, and hardwoods. The area of Florida’s 

natural pine/oak-pine stands for all ownerships combined 

has been on the decline for decades, while acres of planted 

pine/oak-pine have shown a steady increase (fig. 1). In 1952, 

Florida’s natural pine/oak-pine stands occupied 11.1 million 

acres, or 61 percent of the total timberland area. Planted 

pine/oak-pine stands then occupied only 291,000 acres. 

By 1987, planted pine/oak-pine area was 4.1 million acres 

whereas natural pine/oak-pine comprised 4.6 million acres 

(table 1; fig. 1). In 1995, acres of planted pine/oak-pine 

exceeded acres of natural stands for the first time. The 1995 

estimates show 4.9 million acres of planted stands, while the 

area of natural stands decreased to 4.0 million acres. This 

divergent trend in stand types is likely to continue. Based 

on data from “The South’s Fourth Forest” (U.S. Department 

of Agriculture Forest Service 1988), natural pine stands in 

Florida are projected to continue to decline over the next 

30 years, falling to 3.1 million acres by 2025. Concurrently, 

planted pine/oak-pine area is projected to increase to nearly 

6.0 million acres. In addition, the area of planted pine/oakpine in Florida is projected to exceed hardwood acres in 

2005, marking the first time that planted stands constitute 

the dominant stand type in Florida. In any case, planted pine 
4

stands will provide a greater share of the softwood volume 

in future years. 

Florida’s hardwood resource has declined steadily from 

earlier area estimates. In 1952, the area occupied by 

hardwoods totaled 6.8 million acres, and by 1962 it had 

peaked at 7.3 million acres. A downward trend over the 

next three decades reduced the area of hardwoods to 5.7 

million acres, a 21-percent decline. Projections for the area 

of hardwoods indicate a similar trend: a steady decline over 

the 30 years, falling to 4.8 million acres by 2025. Artificial 

regeneration to a softwood forest type will account for some 

of the reduction in hardwood timberland area. However, 

urbanization is the larger threat, because this change in land 

use will remove acres from timber production permanently. 

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

Area (million acres)

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Year

Planted pine/oak-pine

Natural pine/oak-pine

Hardwood

Figure 1—Timberland area in Florida by forest-management type, 1952 

to 1995, with projections to 2025. Vertical line indicates transition from 

measured trends to projected estimates.

Table 1—Area of timberland by owner group, forest-management type, survey year, and projection, Florida, 1980 to 2025

Owner group and

forest-management type

Survey year Projection d

1980 a 1987 b 1995 c 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - thousand acres - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Nonindustrial private

 Planted pine/oak-pine 927.0 1,060.4 1,718.9 1,891.0 1,975.0 2,058.0 2,063.0 2,067.0 2,055.0

 Natural pine/oak-pine 3,001.7 2,376.1 2,125.6 2,042.0 1,951.0 1,859.0 1,777.0 1,695.0 1,652.0

 Hardwood 4,120.2 3,656.7 3,372.9 3,239.0 3,155.0 3,070.0 2,968.0 2,866.0 2,783.0

 Total 8,048.9 7,093.2 7,217.4 7,172.0 7,081.0 6,987.0 6,808.0 6,628.0 6,490.0

Forest industry

 Planted pine/oak-pine 2,178.6 2,678.5 2,606.8 2,851.0 2,966.0 3,080.0 3,119.0 3,157.0 3,176.0

 Natural pine/oak-pine 1,505.4 979.6 656.0 499.0 424.0 348.0 329.0 310.0 303.0

 Hardwood 1,753.2 1,788.3 1,338.6 1,267.0 1,207.0 1,147.0 1,099.0 1,051.0 1,015.0

 Total 5,437.2 5,446.4 4,601.4 4,617.0 4,597.0 4,575.0 4,547.0 4,518.0 4,494.0

Public

 Planted pine/oak-pine 312.2 408.3 569.5 625.0 654.0 683.0 700.0 716.0 723.0

 Natural pine/oak-pine 1,268.8 1,234.5 1,239.9 1,217.0 1,190.0 1,162.0 1,147.0 1,132.0 1,127.0

 Hardwood 597.2 800.3 1,022.4 996.0 992.0 987.0 984.0 980.0 978.0

 Total 2,178.2 2,443.1 2,831.8 2,838.0 2,836.0 2,832.0 2,831.0 2,828.0 2,828.0

All owners

 Planted pine/oak-pine 3,417.8 4,147.2 4,895.2 5,367.0 5,595.0 5,821.0 5,882.0 5,940.0 5,954.0

 Natural pine/oak-pine 5,775.9 4,590.2 4,021.6 3,758.0 3,565.0 3,369.0 3,253.0 3,137.0 3,082.0

 Hardwood 6,470.5 6,245.3 5,733.9 5,502.0 5,354.0 5,204.0 5,051.0 4,897.0 4,776.0

 Total 15,664.2 14,982.7 14,650.7 14,627.0 14,514.0 14,394.0 14,186.0 13,974.0 13,812.0

a

Bechtold and Sheffield (1981).

b

Brown and Thompson (1988).

c

Brown (1996).

d

Mills and Kincaid (1992).
5

Trends in Forest-Management Types

by Ownership

Table 1 and figure 2 display past trends and projections of 

NIPF land area by forest-management type. Few planted 

stands existed 40 years ago, when natural pine/oak-pine 

stands dominated Florida’s NIPF timberland. Much has 

changed. Planted pine/oak-pine acres on private timberland 

were projected to exceed the area occupied by natural stands 

in 2005. After 2005, the area of planted stands is projected 

to remain at about 2.1 million acres. Acres occupied by 

natural stands will decline from 2.1 million acres in 1995 

to a projected 1.7 million acres by 2025. NIPF hardwood 

acreage has continually declined since 1962 and is expected 

to drop from 3.4 million acres in 1995 to 2.8 million acres 

by 2025. In total, NIPF timberland area will decrease to 6.5 

million acres by 2025, down from the current 7.2 million 

acres. Again, urbanization is the primary cause of projected 

area loss.

The shift toward more planted stands has been the trend 

for forest industry timberland as well. As natural stands 

were harvested and regenerated, planted stand acreage rose 

from just 125,000 acres in 1952 to 2.6 million acres in 

1995 (table 1; fig. 3), and accounted for 57 percent of the 

timberland area under forest industry ownership. Planted 

stands exceeded the area of natural stands and hardwoods 

in the late 1970s. By 2025, planted stands are projected to 

comprise 71 percent of industry’s holdings in Florida, or 

3.2 million acres. By contrast, natural pine/oak-pine stands 

will occupy fewer acres of forest industry timberland. From 

a high of 2.8 million acres in 1952, natural pine/oak-pine 

stands occupied just 656,000 acres in 1995. Projections 

show that less than one-half of that area is projected to 

remain by 2025. The area of hardwoods under forest 

industry ownership remained relatively stable at 1.8 million 

acres between 1962 and 1987. Hardwoods declined by 

nearly 450,000 acres between 1987 and 1995, down to 1.3 

million acres. The projected area of hardwoods shows an 

additional decline to 1.0 million acres over the next 30 years. 

Based on past trends, forest industry timberland is projected 

to incur only modest losses in total timberland area, from the 

current 4.6 million acres to 4.5 million acres by 2025. 

The area of timberland under public ownership in Florida 

also has undergone some recent changes. Since 1987, the 

area of planted stands rose 39 percent to almost 570,000 

acres as of 1995 (table 1; fig. 4). The area of planted pine/

oak-pine is expected to increase to 723,000 acres over the 

next 30 years. Natural pine/oak-pine acres have remained 

relatively unchanged since 1987 at 1.2 million acres and are 

projected to decline by only 100,000 acres to 1.1 million 

acres by 2025. Between 1987 and 1995, public agencies in 

the State added 222,000 acres to their hardwood base in an 

effort to expand and protect critical watersheds. However, 

these acres likely would not be available as a source of wood 

fiber. In total, public timberland is projected to remain at 

roughly 2.8 million acres over the study period. 

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

Area (million acres)

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Year

Planted pine/oak-pine

Natural pine/oak-pine

Hardwood

Figure 2—Nonindustrial private timberland area in Florida by forestmanagement type, 1952 to 1995, with projections to 2025. Vertical line 

indicates transition from measured trends to projected estimates.

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Area (million acres)

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Year

Planted pine/oak-pine

Natural pine/oak-pine

Hardwood

Figure 3—Forest industry timberland area in Florida by forest-management 

type, 1952 to 1995, with projections to 2025. Vertical line indicates 

transition from measured trends to projected estimates.
6

Results 

Growth, Removals, and Harvest Requests

The first three columns of tables 2 through 5 provide 

summaries of net annual growth, annual removals, and 

growing-stock volume by species group and forest-management type taken from past surveys of Florida. Data from the 

1980 and 1987 surveys are presented to establish trends for 

comparison with projected changes. The remaining columns 

show the 1995 base-year survey estimates and the ATLAS 

projections through 2025. Table 2 provides a summary for 

all timberland owners, while tables 3 through 5 provide 

estimates for each ownership group considered in this 

assessment. The 2000 to 2025 estimates for growing-stock 

volume, growth, and removals volume shown in the tables 

are the result of harvesting timber to meet the projected 

harvest request set by each ATLAS simulation. As previously discussed, harvest requests represent “demand,” while 

“supply” is the removals volume cut from available growing 

stock in response to each projected harvest request. Figures 

5 through 12 illustrate the projected changes in growth and 

removals by species group and ownership for each periodic 

harvest request. 

Data from FIA surveys since 1980 indicate that Florida’s 

timber resource statewide was in very good condition with 

respect to growth and removals relationships. Removals 

from all owners and all management types averaged 541.8 

million cubic feet per year in 1980, with pine species 

accounting for 427.0 million cubic feet and hardwoods 

contributing 114.8 million cubic feet (table 2). Removals 

increased to 540.6 million cubic feet per year in 1987 and 

rose to 560.7 million cubic feet per year by 1995. In each 

case, total net growth outpaced removals by a substantial 

margin, indicating that there was enough wood available at 

the State level to respond relatively easily to future increases 

in demand. However, the ATLAS simulations revealed some 

potential shortages of available wood by 2010 and another 

possible shortfall in 2025. Simulation results for individual 

management types and owner groups identify the source of 

projected shortages in available timber volume.

Projections for Southern Yellow Pine

Figure 5 shows the projected estimates of removals and 

requested volume for southern yellow pine from all ownerships. In 1995, FIA estimates showed average annual 

removals of pine amounted to 431.4 million cubic feet statewide. The projected harvest request for pine volume in 2000 

was expected to rise to 462.4 million cubic feet, a 7-percent 

increase in demand over the 1995 base-year removals levels. 

Over the next 5 years, harvest requests for pine volume are 

projected to increase to 487.7 million cubic feet. Projected 

harvest requests peak at 519.2 million cubic feet annually 

in 2020. The removals columns in figure 5 show the pine 

volume cut in response to each harvest request. Within the 

constraints of the projections, Florida apparently has the 

pine volume available to supply the projected increases in 

demand for pine over the next 30 years, with one possible 

exception: a supply shortfall of 119.9 million cubic feet is 

projected to occur by 2010. Part of the reason for the potential shortfall in pine volume is due to the model constraints 

on harvest age and the distribution of the harvest requests 

among ownerships. A redistribution of the removals volume 

among the other ownership groups is indicated if the shortfall is to be avoided. Also, the fact that net annual growth 

for southern yellow pines exceeds removals over the entire 

30-year projection period indicates that the resource has the 

growth capacity to make up this supply shortfall. Therefore, 

the volume of wood needed to respond to the increased 

demand is “on the stump,” again limited only by simulation 

constraints on removals among owner groups and minimum 

age classes. The next sections discuss the simulation results 

for projected harvest requests and removals for each owner 

and species group. 

Projections of Pine Harvest Requests by

Owner Group 

Projected demand for pine volume from Florida’s 

nonindustrial private timberland is expected to increase 

modestly relative to base-year (1995) removals estimates, 

which averaged 176.7 million cubic feet (table 3). Requested 

harvest volume is expected to rise 8 percent to 190.9 

million cubic feet during the initial 5-year projection period, 

then decline to 184.0 million cubic feet by 2010 (fig. 6). 

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

Area (million acres)

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Year

Planted pine/oak-pine

Natural pine/oak-pine

Hardwood

Figure 4—Public timberland area in Florida by forest-management type, 

1952 to 1995, with projections to 2025. Vertical line indicates transition 

from measured trends to projected estimates.
7

Table 2—Growing-stock volume, net annual growth, and annual removals by species group, forest-management 

type, survey year, and projection for all owners, Florida, 1980 to 2025

Inventory item, species group, 

and forest-management type

Survey year Projection d

1980 a 1987 b 1995 c 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - million cubic feet - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Growing stock

 Pine

 Planted pine/oak-pine 1,531.6 2,028.4 2,772.2 3,909.7 4,596.9 5,659.4 5,883.4 6,176.4 6,316.0

 Natural pine/oak-pine 4,424.6 4,058.6 3,751.9 3,042.3 2,704.1 2,668.2 2,769.0 2,902.8 3,004.0

 Hardwood 368.1 459.5 451.0 472.8 487.8 493.4 494.8 491.3 486.9

 Total 6,324.3 6,546.5 6,975.1 7,424.8 7,788.8 8,821.0 9,147.2 9,570.5 9,806.9

 Hardwood

 Planted pine/oak-pine 28.5 41.4 67.3 95.3 113.3 138.9 145.3 154.2 158.8

 Natural pine/oak-pine 704.6 741.2 850.2 625.2 526.1 518.1 543.3 577.8 596.9

 Hardwood 6,562.5 7,640.4 7,473.9 7,824.6 8,071.4 8,166.3 8,184.6 8,126.9 8,051.7

 Total 7,295.6 8,423.0 8,391.4 8,545.1 8,710.8 8,823.3 8,873.2 8,858.9 8,807.4

Net annual growth

 Pine

 Planted pine/oak-pine 222.4 247.5 333.5 438.7 454.6 494.9 474.8 494.4 436.0

 Natural pine/oak-pine 282.0 156.1 133.7 105.0 95.5 95.7 98.5 101.3 99.9

 Hardwood 39.5 23.6 21.5 9.8 9.6 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.9

 Total 543.9 427.2 488.7 553.5 559.7 599.5 581.4 603.1 542.8

 Hardwood

 Planted pine/oak-pine 3.1 3.6 6.3 10.7 11.1 12.2 11.5 12.2 10.8

 Natural pine/oak-pine 35.4 24.7 28.9 24.4 22.1 22.4 23.2 24.0 23.5

 Hardwood 203.1 172.8 168.7 160.4 156.5 145.1 133.3 121.9 111.2

 Total 241.6 201.1 203.9 195.5 189.7 179.7 168.0 158.1 145.5

Annual removals

 Pine

 Planted pine/oak-pine 85.2 190.2 231.1 211.3 317.3 282.5 429.9 435.9 404.3

 Natural pine/oak-pine 316.9 238.3 188.4 246.9 163.2 102.9 78.3 74.6 79.6

 Hardwood 24.9 12.7 11.9 5.5 6.7 7.8 7.9 8.2 7.6

 Total 427.0 441.2 431.4 463.7 487.2 393.2 516.1 518.7 491.5

 Hardwood

 Planted pine/oak-pine 1.9 1.3 2.2 5.0 7.5 6.9 10.3 10.5 9.8

 Natural pine/oak-pine 14.6 16.9 15.6 66.8 39.8 22.1 17.1 16.0 19.2

 Hardwood 98.3 81.2 111.5 72.5 96.8 115.0 116.8 117.8 112.9

 Total 114.8 99.4 129.3 144.3 144.1 144.0 144.2 144.3 141.9

a

Bechtold and Sheffield (1981).

b

Brown and Thompson (1988).

c

Brown (1996).

d

Mills and Kincaid (1992).
8

Table 3—Growing-stock volume, net annual growth, and annual removals by species group, forest-management 

type, survey year, and projection for nonindustrial private owners, Florida, 1980 to 2025

Inventory item, species group, 

and forest-management type

Survey year Projection d

1980 a 1987 b 1995 c 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - million cubic feet - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Growing stock

 Pine

 Planted pine/oak-pine 615.2 553.5 997.8 1,507.7 1,996.4 2,400.8 2,629.5 3,016.2 3,237.7

 Natural pine/oak-pine 1,969.6 1,856.6 1,676.9 1,329.2 1,104.9 1,065.1 1,156.9 1,255.8 1,365.8

 Hardwood 217.0 242.7 250.7 262.7 269.0 267.6 261.3 252.3 242.5

 Total 2,801.8 2,652.8 2,925.4 3,099.6 3,370.3 3,733.5 4,047.7 4,524.3 4,846.0

 Hardwood

 Planted pine/oak-pine 6.3 12.2 28.8 43.4 57.5 69.2 75.7 86.9 93.3

 Natural pine/oak-pine 385.5 400.2 449.2 356.1 296.0 285.4 310.0 336.4 365.9

 Hardwood 3,901.9 4,247.0 4,074.0 4,265.9 4,369.2 4,346.9 4,243.3 4,097.9 3,938.5

 Total 4,293.7 4,659.4 4,552.0 4,665.4 4,722.7 4,701.5 4,629.0 4,521.2 4,397.7

Net annual growth

 Pine

 Planted pine/oak-pine 83.4 58.8 119.8 162.3 182.1 196.2 188.2 223.1 193.6

 Natural pine/oak-pine 122.0 79.0 72.5 57.4 53.6 55.0 58.6 61.4 61.5

 Hardwood 18.3 11.4 12.1 5.9 5.7 5.3 4.8 4.4 4.1

 Total 223.7 149.2 204.4 225.6 241.4 256.5 251.6 288.9 259.2

 Hardwood

 Planted pine/oak-pine 1.1 1.2 3.0 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.4 6.4 5.6

 Natural pine/oak-pine 19.4 13.9 16.8 15.3 14.4 14.7 15.7 16.4 16.4

 Hardwood 120.5 103.3 99.6 96.6 93.9 86.7 79.1 72.2 66.5

 Total 141.0 118.4 119.4 116.6 113.5 107.1 100.2 95.0 88.5

Annual removals

 Pine

 Planted pine/oak-pine 47.4 77.5 74.0 60.3 84.4 115.4 142.4 145.8 145.6

 Natural pine/oak-pine 119.0 95.9 95.5 127.0 98.5 63.0 40.2 41.6 39.5

 Hardwood 11.8 8.1 7.2 3.6 4.5 5.6 6.1 6.2 6.0

 Total 178.2 181.5 176.7 190.9 187.4 184.0 188.7 193.6 191.1

 Hardwood

 Planted pine/oak-pine 1.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.1 4.2 4.2

 Natural pine/oak-pine 5.4 9.8 9.4 33.6 25.5 15.9 9.9 10.3 10.1

 Hardwood 46.6 43.4 61.7 51.3 67.5 85.2 92.4 93.9 92.4

 Total 53.1 53.5 71.9 86.6 95.4 104.4 106.4 108.4 106.7

a

Bechtold and Sheffield (1981).

b

Brown and Thompson (1988).

c

Brown (1996).

d

Mills and Kincaid (1992).
9

Table 4—Growing-stock volume, net annual growth, and annual removals by species group, forest-management 

type, survey year, and projection for forest industry owners, Florida, 1980 to 2025

Inventory item, species group, 

and forest-management type

Survey year Projection d

1980 a 1987 b 1995 c 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - million cubic feet - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Growing stock 

 Pine

 Planted pine/oak-pine 826.7 1,319.0 1,428.6 1,790.0 1,722.8 2,129.7 1,908.9 1,641.5 1,438.8

 Natural pine/oak-pine 1,187.7 821.1 542.6 200.4 102.9 111.4 109.3 123.9 86.3

 Hardwood 105.5 153.5 121.6 128.4 134.0 138.5 144.2 148.3 152.5

 Total 2,119.9 2,293.6 2,092.8 2,118.8 1,959.7 2,379.6 2,162.4 1,913.7 1,677.6

 Hardwood

 Planted pine/oak-pine 20.6 26.8 31.2 39.0 37.3 46.0 41.3 35.4 31.0

 Natural pine/oak-pine 219.7 195.0 205.2 75.8 38.9 42.1 41.3 46.8 32.7

 Hardwood 2,012.8 2,148.3 1,688.8 1,782.6 1,860.2 1,922.3 2,001.3 2,058.2 2,117.0

 Total 2,253.1 2,370.1 1,925.2 1,897.4 1,936.4 2,010.4 2,083.9 2,140.4 2,180.7

Net annual growth

 Pine

 Planted pine/oak-pine 124.9 168.3 183.3 217.5 209.5 234.4 224.3 214.6 193.7

 Natural pine/oak-pine 88.7 34.6 27.7 12.2 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.1 8.8

 Hardwood 17.1 9.5 7.5 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9

 Total 230.7 212.4 218.5 232.4 221.7 246.6 236.4 226.8 204.4

 Hardwood

 Planted pine/oak-pine 2.0 2.3 2.9 4.7 4.5 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.2

 Natural pine/oak-pine 11.5 6.5 6.4 4.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.3

 Hardwood 64.2 45.2 38.5 37.3 37.5 34.9 32.4 29.3 26.1

 Total 77.7 54.0 47.8 46.6 45.6 43.7 40.9 37.7 33.6

Annual removals

 Pine

 Planted pine/oak-pine 32.6 107.6 146.3 145.3 223.0 153.0 268.4 268.1 234.2

 Natural pine/oak-pine 160.7 99.8 53.8 80.6 29.0 8.0 10.2 7.2 16.3

 Hardwood 12.4 4.2 3.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.0

 Total 205.7 211.6 203.4 227.2 253.6 162.6 279.8 276.6 251.5

 Hardwood

 Planted pine/oak-pine 0.8 1.0 1.3 3.2 4.9 3.3 5.8 5.8 5.1

 Natural pine/oak-pine 7.2 6.4 4.7 28.3 9.9 2.3 3.7 2.5 6.1

 Hardwood 33.2 37.1 35.2 10.0 17.7 17.8 11.4 10.1 7.2

 Total 41.2 44.5 41.2 41.5 32.5 23.4 20.9 18.4 18.4

a

Bechtold and Sheffield (1981).

b

Brown and Thompson (1988).

c

Brown (1996).

d

Mills and Kincaid (1992).
10

Table 5—Growing-stock volume, net annual growth, and annual removals by species group, forest-management 

type, survey year, and projection for public owners, Florida, 1980 to 2025

Inventory item, species group, 

and forest-management type

Survey year Projection d

 1980 a 1987 b 1995 c 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - million cubic feet - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Growing stock

 Pine

 Planted pine/oak-pine 89.7 155.8 345.8 612.0 877.7 1,128.9 1,345.0 1,518.7 1,639.5

 Natural pine/oak-pine 1,267.2 1,380.9 1,532.4 1,512.7 1,496.3 1,491.7 1,502.8 1,523.1 1,551.9

 Hardwood 45.5 63.2 78.7 81.7 84.8 87.3 89.3 90.7 91.9

 Total 1,402.4 1,599.9 1,956.9 2,206.4 2,458.8 2,707.9 2,937.1 3,132.5 3,283.3

 Hardwood

 Planted pine/oak-pine 1.6 2.4 7.3 12.9 18.5 23.7 28.3 31.9 34.5

 Natural pine/oak-pine 99.4 146.1 195.8 193.3 191.2 190.6 192.0 194.6 198.3

 Hardwood 647.8 1,245.1 1,711.1 1,776.1 1,842.0 1,897.1 1,940.0 1,970.8 1,996.2

 Total 748.8 1,393.6 1,914.2 1,982.3 2,051.7 2,111.4 2,160.3 2,197.3 2,229.0

Net annual growth

 Pine

 Planted pine/oak-pine 14.1 20.5 30.4 58.9 63.0 64.3 62.3 56.7 48.7

 Natural pine/oak-pine 71.2 42.4 33.5 35.4 32.4 31.0 30.1 29.8 29.6

 Hardwood 4.1 2.7 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9

 Total 89.4 65.6 65.8 95.5 96.6 96.4 93.4 87.4 79.2

 Hardwood

 Planted pine/oak-pine 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0

 Natural pine/oak-pine 4.5 4.3 5.7 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8

 Hardwood 18.3 24.4 30.6 26.5 25.1 23.5 21.8 20.4 18.6

 Total 22.9 28.8 36.7 32.3 30.6 28.9 26.9 25.4 23.4

Annual removals

 Pine

 Planted pine/oak-pine 5.2 5.1 10.8 5.7 9.9 14.1 19.1 22.0 24.5

 Natural pine/oak-pine 37.1 42.5 39.1 39.3 35.7 31.9 27.9 25.8 23.8

 Hardwood 0.7 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6

 Total 43.0 48.1 51.3 45.6 46.2 46.6 47.6 48.5 48.9

 Hardwood

 Planted pine/oak-pine 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5

 Natural pine/oak-pine 2.0 0.7 1.5 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.0

 Hardwood 18.5 0.7 14.6 11.2 11.6 12.0 13.0 13.8 13.3

 Total 20.5 1.4 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.9 17.5 16.8

a

Bechtold and Sheffield (1981).

b

Brown and Thompson (1988).

c

Brown (1996).

d

Mills and Kincaid (1992).
11

800

600

400

200

0

Volume (million cubic feet)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Harvest requests

Removals

Net growth

Figure 5—Projected harvest requests, removals, and net annual growth of 

growing stock for southern yellow pine, Florida, 1995 to 2025 (base year 

1995).

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Volume (million cubic feet)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Harvest requests

Removals

Net growth

Figure 6—Projected harvest requests, removals, and net annual growth of 

growing stock for southern yellow pine from nonindustrial private timberland, Florida, 1995 to 2025 (base year 1995).

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Volume (million cubic feet)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Harvest requests

Removals

Net growth

Figure 7—Projected harvest requests, removals, and net annual growth of 

growing stock for southern yellow pine from forest industry timberland, 

Florida, 1995 to 2025 (base year 1995).

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Volume (million cubic feet)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Harvest requests

Removals

Net growth

Figure 8—Projected harvest requests, removals, and net annual growth of 

growing stock for southern yellow pine from public timberland, Florida, 

1995 to 2025 (base year 1995).

250

200

150

100

50

0

Volume (million cubic feet)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Harvest requests

Removals

Net growth

Figure 9—Projected harvest requests, removals, and net annual growth of 

growing stock for hardwoods, Florida, 1995 to 2025 (base year 1995).

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Volume (million cubic feet)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Harvest requests

Removals

Net growth

Figure 10—Projected harvest requests, removals, and net annual growth 

of growing stock for hardwoods from nonindustrial private timberland, 

Florida, 1995 to 2025 (base year 1995).
12

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Volume (million cubic feet)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Harvest requests

Removals

Net growth

Figure 11—Projected harvest requests, removals, and net annual growth of 

growing stock for hardwoods from forest industry timberland, Florida, 1995 

to 2025 (base year 1995).

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Volume (million cubic feet)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Harvest requests

Removals

Net growth

Figure 12—Projected harvest requests, removals, and net annual growth of 

growing stock for hardwoods from public timberland, Florida, 1995 to 2025 

(base year 1995).

Throughout the 30-year simulation, net annual growth of 

pine on NIPF land exceeds average annual removals by a 

substantial margin (table 3; fig. 6). Growth-to-cut ratios for 

pine on NIPF land range from a low of 1.18 in 2000 to a 

high of 1.49 by 2020. Given the simulation assumptions and 

constraints, pine harvest volume from nonindustrial private 

timberland in Florida could be increased and sustained well 

into the future. 

Pine removals from forest industry timberland averaged 

205.7 million cubic feet per year between 1970 and 1980, 

including 32.6 million cubic feet (16 percent) cut from 

planted pine/oak-pine stands (table 4). At that time, forest 

industry’s timber base included 2.2 million acres of planted 

pine/oak-pine (table 1). By 1987, planted acres increased 

to 2.7 million acres, and total pine removals from industry 

timberland rose to 211.6 million cubic feet, including 107.6 

million cubic feet cut from planted stands. Acres of planted 

pine/oak-pine fell to 2.6 million acres in 1995, and total 

removals of pine declined to 203.4 million cubic feet per 

year. However, the decline in planted acres had little effect 

on removals from planted stands. Removals from planted 

pine/oak-pine increased to 146.3 million cubic feet per 

year and made up 72 percent of the current pine removals 

volume. 

Based on regional demand projections (Haynes and others 

1995), the outlook is for increased reliance on forest 

industry timberland for future pine harvest volume in the 

South. Figure 7 displays the effect this regional demand for 

pine harvest is projected to have on forest industry holdings 

in Florida. Pine removals from forest industry timberland 

amounted to 203.4 million cubic feet in 1995 (table 4). Pine 

harvest requests were projected to have totaled 225.9 million 

cubic feet in 2000 and were to reach 254.2 million cubic 

feet in the following 5-year period. Industry timberland was 

able to respond reasonably well to the increased demand in 

both cases with pine removals of 227.2 and 253.6 million 

cubic feet, respectively (table 4; fig. 7). This is not the case 

for the 2005 to 2010 projection period. The pine harvest 

request in 2010 is projected to average 282.6 million cubic 

feet annually, while annual pine removals volume from the 

harvestable age classes in all three management types averages just 162.6 million cubic feet. The projected shortfall 

in southern yellow pine removals volume discussed earlier 

occurs entirely on forest industry land. The annual 120 

million cubic-foot shortfall amounts to a total deficit of 600 

million cubic feet over the 5-year period. A smaller supply 

shortfall in available pine removals volume also occurs in 

2025. By that year, pine harvest request volume amounts to 

259.5 million cubic feet per year, while removals average 

251.5 million cubic feet per year. 

Projected demand for pine volume from private timberland 

peaks in 2020 at 193.6 million cubic feet. As the removals 

columns in figure 6 show, the supply of pine volume is 

available to meet future demand in each 5-year period. 

Noteworthy is the shift in annual removals from natural to 

planted stands (table 3). By 2025, seventy percent of the 

pine removals volume from NIPF land is projected to be cut 

from planted pine/oak-pine stands.
13

Although pine harvest requests are met in all other projection periods, the projected harvest request volume exceeds 

future pine net annual growth on forest industry timberland 

after the year 2000. Growth-to-cut ratios for industry’s 

southern yellow pine resource fall to as low as 0.81 by 

2025, which translates to 1.23 cubic feet of wood cut for 

every cubic foot of growth. These results indicate that 

forest industry timberland in Florida could support modest 

increases in pine demand, relative to the base year, but not at 

the levels used in our projections. Without additional acres 

of pine or increased management efforts to improve pine 

growth rates on industry timberland, the removals volume 

needed to supply the projected demand for southern yellow 

pine will have to come from NIPF land, public timberland, 

or sources outside the State.

The apparent surplus of pine volume on NIPF land is 

more than enough to make up for the possible shortfall on 

industry timberland projected for 2010. To make up for the 

600 million cubic foot shortfall, annual removals of pine 

volume from NIPF timberland would have to rise from the 

projected 184.0 million cubic feet (table 3) to 304.0 million 

cubic feet for the 2010 projection period. That annual rate 

of removals would represent an increase of 72 percent over 

the base-year level of pine removals from NIPF timberland 

and would exceed pine net annual growth by 18 percent 

during this 5-year period. It would also result in a reduction 

of available pine removals volume from NIPF land in future 

projection periods. 

Public timberland has typically accounted for a small 

percentage of Florida’s pine removals volume. The 43.0 

million cubic feet of pine removals from public lands in 

1980 (table 5) accounted for 10 percent of the total 427.0 

million cubic feet of pine removals for that survey period 

(table 2). Public timberland accounted for 11 percent of 

total pine removals volume in 1987 and 12 percent in 1995. 

Future harvest requests and removals of southern yellow 

pine volume from public timberland are expected to remain 

within this 11- to 12-percent range throughout the projection 

period. This is based on the assumption that harvesting from 

public timberlands will continue at recent-past levels. 

Projected pine harvest requests from public timberland 

are shown to decline to 45.6 million cubic feet per year 

by 2000, down from the 51.3 million cubic feet of pine 

removals reported in 1995 (table 5; fig. 8). Average annual 

pine harvest requests remain near 2000 levels until 2015, 

when the request rises to 47.5 million cubic feet per year. 

Pine harvest requests from public timberland peak between 

2020 and 2025 at 49.0 million cubic feet per year. The pine 

volume requested from public timberland equals roughly 

10 percent of the total annual harvest request for pine 

throughout the projection period. Net annual growth of 

pine volume on public timberlands far outpaces the annual 

removals volume needed to meet future demand. Should 

the need arise to increase pine harvests to help make up 

the projected shortfall from other ownerships, the southern 

yellow pine resource on public timberland has the surplus 

volume available to easily respond. This assumes that any 

additional increase in harvesting from public timberland 

would not come at the expense of other management 

objectives. 

Projections for Hardwoods

Florida’s hardwood resource, as in other Southern States, is 

considerably underutilized with respect to timber harvesting. 

This is due largely to the low desirability of hardwood 

species and, at the time of this study, a general lack of new 

markets for hardwood volume. As a result, the 30-year 

projection of harvest requests for hardwoods shows little 

increase in demand over the 1995 base-year removals levels. 

Total hardwood harvest requests were projected to rise to 

144.2 million cubic feet per year in 2000, a 12-percent 

increase, during the first 5-year period (fig. 9). Requests 

are projected to remain near this level through 2020 then 

decline to 141.9 million cubic feet per year over the final 5 

years. Hardwood removals volume is available to meet each 

projected harvest request throughout the simulation. 

Although total hardwood net annual growth exceeds 

projected harvest requests and removals in each period, the 

rate of hardwood net growth declines steadily (table 2; 

fig. 9). Growth-to-cut ratios fall from a peak of 1.6 in 1995 

to a growth-equals-cut relationship by 2025. A primary 

force driving this possible trend in reduced hardwood net 

growth is the low removals levels projected for each period. 

The need to harvest less volume results in increased acres 

of hardwoods left to move into the older age classes where 

growth rates are comparatively slower and mortality rates 

higher than in younger stands. Hardwood net annual growth 

declines from 203.9 million cubic feet per year in 1995 to 

an average of 145.5 million cubic feet per year by 2025. 

This trend is likely to continue beyond the projection period 

if Florida’s hardwood resource remains underutilized and 

continues to mature.

Projections of Hardwood Harvest Requests

by Owner Group 

Projections show modest but steady increases in demand 

for hardwood volume from NIPF land. Harvest requests 

rise from the 71.9 million cubic feet of removals reported 

in 1995 to 86.6 million cubic feet per year during the initial 
14

projection period (fig. 10). Hardwood harvest requests 

from private land are expected to increase to 106.4 million 

cubic feet per year by 2015 and peak at 108.4 million 

cubic feet per year by 2020. Ample removals volume is 

available to readily supply all increases in demand (table 

3; fig. 10). Hardwood net annual growth declines over the 

entire projection period, and by 2010 growth and removals 

are nearly equal. With each 5-year projection period, 

the distribution of nonindustrial private hardwood acres 

becomes ever more skewed toward the older age classes as 

fewer mature stands are cut and replaced by young, vigorous 

stands. As a result of the lower growth rate, hardwood 

removals exceed net growth over the final 15 years of the 

projection (table 3; fig. 10). 

Hardwood removals from forest industry timberland 

amounted to 41.2 million cubic feet per year in 1995, down 

7 percent from 1987 (table 4). Projections show a slight 

increase in harvest requests for hardwood volume, up to 

41.5 million cubic feet per year in 2000 (fig. 11). Beyond 

2000, projected requests for hardwood volume from 

industry timberland decline, falling to less than one-half 

that amount—18.4 million cubic feet per year—by 2025. 

Available hardwood growing-stock volume exists on forest 

industry timberland to easily meet all harvest requests. 

Projected hardwood net annual growth exceeds removals 

on industry timberland throughout the projection period, 

indicating the potential to increase hardwood harvest rates 

substantially, if needed. Again, there is a downward trend in 

the rate of net growth over the 30-year period due to higher 

mortality rates in over-mature hardwood stands.

Through the first 15 years of the simulation, hardwood 

harvest requests from public timberland remain unchanged 

from the 16.2 million cubic feet of annual removals reported 

in the base year (fig. 12). In the latter half of the projection, 

harvest requests from public lands rise to 16.9 million cubic 

feet per year by 2015 and peak at 17.5 million cubic feet 

annually by 2020 (see table 5). As with other ownerships, 

hardwood removals volume on public timberland is readily 

available to match projected increases in demand in each 

projection period. Hardwood net annual growth exceeds 

removals on public timberland in all periods (table 5; fig. 

12), but the relationship is approaching a one-to-one ratio 

as losses to mortality in aging hardwood stands offset an 

increasingly larger proportion of total stand growth. 

Impacts on Growing-Stock Volume

As each simulation is run, ATLAS tracks the growth-toremovals relationships and reports the effect they have on 

levels of growing-stock volume. Overall, total growingstock volume for all ownerships combined is projected to 

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Volume (billion cubic feet)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Public

Forest industry

NIPF

Figure 13—Projected softwood growing-stock volume by owner group, 

Florida, 1995 to 2025 (base year 1995). NIPF = nonindustrial private 

forest.

increase over the 30-year simulation. The increase occurs 

despite the future loss of timberland acres to other uses and 

the expected increases in removals in response to increased 

harvest request volume. Combined hardwood and softwood 

growing-stock volume rises from 15.4 billion cubic feet in 

base year 1995 to a total of 18.6 billion cubic feet by 2025 

(table 2). Southern yellow pine growing stock increases by 

41 percent, amounting to 9.8 billion cubic feet by the end of 

the projection. Hardwood volume rises only 5 percent over 

the simulation and totals 8.8 billion cubic feet by 2025. The 

modest increase in hardwood inventory reflects the higher 

mortality rates and resulting lower net annual growth. 

Among ownership groups, southern yellow pine volume is 

expected to increase on NIPF land and public timberland 

but is projected to decline on forest industry timberland 

after 2010. The 2.9 billion cubic feet of pine growing-stock 

volume on NIPF land in 1995 grows to 3.7 billion cubic feet 

by 2010 and peaks at 4.8 billion cubic feet by 2025 (table 3; 

fig. 13). The increase on public timberland is also substantial 

as pine volume rises 68 percent, from 2.0 billion cubic feet 

in 1995 to 3.3 billion cubic feet in 2025 (table 5; fig. 13). 

Pine growing stock on industry timberland increases 14 

percent during the first half of the projection period, rising 

from 2.1 billion cubic feet in the base year to 2.4 billion 

cubic feet by 2010. The volume decline after that year 

is to be expected. Figure 7 shows that the pine removals 

volume from industry timberland cut to meet projected 

harvest requests exceeds net growth over virtually the 

entire simulation. The result is a drop in pine growing-stock 

volume on forest industry timberland after 2010 (table 4; 

fig. 13). By 2025, pine growing-stock volume on forest 
15

projection model, we have considered the current (1995) 

timber resource situation in Florida and, based on projected 

increases in demand, analyzed the State’s ability to produce 

and provide more wood over a 30-year period. FIA’s recently 

implemented annual inventory system will provide new data 

to update model inputs and assumptions, making it possible 

to closely monitor Florida’s timber situation on an ongoing 

basis. The results we have presented, combined with results 

from planned ATLAS simulations for the other Southern 

States, will help stakeholders predict how well the South 

will be able to respond to changing regional and nationwide 

demands. 

Maintaining an available timber base is a key factor in 

Florida’s ability to meet increased timber supply demands 

in the future. The State’s area of forest land is projected 

to lose 839,000 acres over the next few decades, falling to 

13.8 million acres by 2025. Much of the decline in Florida’s 

forest area is due to urbanization on private land. We used 

estimates of forest land loss documented by the most 

recent (1995) FIA survey showing changes in area since 

1987. However, decade-old land use change estimates do 

not accurately capture recent increased rates of loss due to 

urbanization. Therefore, model results likely underestimate 

future reductions in forest land. Wear (2002) forecast losses 

of forest land Southwide totaling 12 million acres between 

1992 and 2020, and much of this loss will occur in Florida 

and other Coastal States due to urbanization. In addition, 

changing social demands concerning how the state’s forests 

should be managed and what amenities they should provide 

could reduce timber availability as well. 

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Volume (billion cubic feet)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Public

Forest industry

NIPF

Figure 14—Projected hardwood growing-stock volume by owner group, 

Florida, 1995 to 2025 (base year 1995). NIPF = nonindustrial private 

forest.

industry timberland is projected to be less than one-half that 

on public land (fig. 13). Nearly one-third of the southern 

yellow pine volume in Florida will be on public timberland 

within the next 20 to 25 years. With current constraints and 

possible future limits on harvesting from public timberland, 

the availability of such a large portion of Florida’s total pine 

volume is questionable. 

The future shift toward more acres in planted pine/oak-pine 

brings an accompanying increase in the proportion of total 

pine growing-stock volume on planted acres. Florida, much 

like other Southern States, will be increasingly dependent 

on pine plantations for future pine removals volume. In 

1995, the 2.8 billion cubic feet of pine volume in planted 

pine/oak-pine stands (table 2) accounted for 40 percent of 

the total southern yellow pine growing stock statewide. As 

of 2000, pine growing stock on planted acres accounted for 

53 percent of the total pine inventory, or 3.9 billion cubic 

feet. In another 10 years, it increases to 64 percent and 

remains there through 2025. Pine volume on planted acres 

is projected to account for 6.3 billion of the 9.8 billion cubic 

feet of pine growing stock by 2025. 

A concurrent trend shows less pine volume coming from 

natural stands. Growing-stock volume from natural pine/

oak-pine stands for all owners accounted for 54 percent 

of the total pine inventory volume in 1995. From the 3.8 

billion cubic feet present in 1995, it is projected to decline 

by 709.6 million cubic feet in the first 5 years (table 2). The 

downward trend continues through 2010, when pine volume 

in natural stands reaches a low of < 2.7 billion cubic feet. By 

2025, natural pine/oak-pine stands are projected to account 

for 3.0 billion cubic feet, or just 31 percent of the total pine 

growing stock in Florida. 

Projections show hardwood growing-stock volume will 

increase on public and forest industry timberland acres, 

albeit very slowly. Hardwood growing-stock volume for 

each owner group rises from 1.9 billion cubic feet in 1995 to 

about 2.2 billion cubic feet by 2025 (tables 4, 5; fig. 14). On 

NIPF land, hardwood growing-stock volume peaked at 4.7 

billion cubic feet in 2005, then declines to 4.4 billion cubic 

feet in the final years of the projection (table 3; fig. 14). 

Discussion

The demand for wood in the United States is likely to 

increase over the foreseeable future. Based on results from 

the 1993 timber update (Haynes and others 1995) and the 

more recent Southern Forest Resource Assessment (Wear 

and Greis 2002), the South probably will be expected 

to supply more wood fiber. Using the ATLAS timber 
16

Changing ownership patterns further complicate timber 

production and availability projections. The majority of 

Florida’s forest land is under NIPF ownership, and these 

private acres historically have been the source for much 

of the wood volume harvested in the State. There will be 

fewer acres of NIPF timberland from which to harvest this 

volume in the future, as projections show a decline from the 

reported 7.2 million acres in 1995 to 6.5 million in 2025. 

Further declines in NIPF forest land could necessitate a shift 

in harvesting toward other ownerships or to sources outside 

the State. 

Timberland owned by forest industry also is expected to 

decline but by just 100,000 acres, to 4.5 million acres by 

2025. However, recent evidence reveals that this projected 

rate of loss may not accurately portray future reductions 

in forest industry land. An emerging trend in the South is 

the transfer of forestry industry land to private landowners 

and, more often, to investment corporations such as timber 

investment and management organizations (TIMOs) or real 

estate investment trusts (REITs). The 1995 survey data for 

Florida used in our projections captured some of this redistribution of forest land as industry landholdings in the State 

fell from the 5.4 million acres reported in 1987 to 

4.6 million as of 1995. Future reductions may be even 

greater if changes in Florida’s industry timberland follow 

those revealed by more recent surveys of other Southern 

States. It is uncertain at this point whether forest land held 

by TIMOs and REITs will continue to be managed for 

timber production or removed from the timber base for other 

uses. In any event, monitoring changes in forest industry 

ownership and analysis of the impacts these changes might 

have will be assessed as new annual inventory data become 

available. 

Public timberland area remains relatively unchanged over 

the projection period. Past survey data indicate that public 

agencies in the State typically neither acquire nor lose 

substantial areas of forest land. Public lands play a relatively 

small role in Florida’s timber supply dynamics at this time, 

and projection results suggest that this will continue to be 

the case in the near future. 

Change in forest management type, specifically shifts from 

natural to planted stands, is another key to monitoring 

potential timber supply. Our projections for Florida’s pine 

resource show an eventual predominance of planted pine 

stands as natural stands are harvested and artificially regenerated. By 2025, total planted pine/oak-pine acres combined 

are projected to exceed the area of natural pine by a margin 

of more than 2 to 1, and net growth on planted stands will 

outpace that of natural stands by a 4-to-1 margin. As this 

occurs, more of the volume needed to meet increased future 

demand for wood will come from artificially regenerated 

stands. Florida’s southern yellow pine total growing-stock 

volume rises from < 7.0 billion cubic feet in 1995 to 9.8 

billion by 2025 (table 2). Over the same time, the pine 

inventory on planted pine/oak pine acres rises from 2.8 

billion cubic feet (40 percent of total pine volume) to 6.3 

billion (64 percent of total pine volume) due primarily to 

the higher rates of growth in planted stands. By 2025, 70 

percent of the pine removals volume from NIPF land is 

projected to be cut from planted pine/oak-pine stands.

Pine net growth under all owners exceeds removals 

throughout the projection. The increased growth and the 

gains in total pine inventory (from 6.9 billion cubic feet to 

9.8 billion over the projection) enable Florida’s pine resource 

to respond to future increases in demand. Although a shortfall of pine volume is projected to occur on forest industry 

timberland in the near term (fig. 7), increasing harvests 

from other ownerships, notably NIPF land, could more than 

make up for any projected shortage. Sources elsewhere in 

the South, though not considered in this analysis, also could 

compensate for the shortfall.

Forecast changes for Florida’s hardwood area show declines 

for all ownerships, down 17 percent to 4.8 million acres by 

2025. The decline in hardwood acres is greatest for NIPF 

owners, but this group still controls the majority of the 

resource throughout the projection. Hardwood timberland 

area for other owner groups declines slightly. Despite the 

projected loss of hardwood timberland area to other land 

uses, our simulation results show that Florida’s hardwood 

timber resource could easily sustain or even increase 

removals from growing stock over the next 2 to 3 decades. 

Our data suggest that the State’s hardwood resource is 

underutilized—a situation that reduces future productivity 

due to increased mortality and declining net growth in 

aging hardwood stands. Based on past removals levels, we 

projected nearly constant demand for hardwood volume 

over the 30-year period. This continued low utilization of 

hardwood volume skews the distribution of hardwood acres 

toward the older stand age classes. As a result, the decline in 

net growth continues to the point where hardwood removals 

outpace net growth for all ownerships combined by the 

end of the projection. The decline in productivity results 

in a smaller increase in future hardwood inventory (only a 

5 percent increase over 30 years). Reversing this situation 

calls for increased management and utilization of Florida’s 

hardwood resource. An apparent lack of diversified markets 

for hardwoods, however, seems to be a factor currently 

limiting increased investment in hardwood management. 

Again, the age of the base-year data (1995) is problematic 

in that it does not capture trends or changes in demand for 
17

Literature Cited

Alig, R.J.; Knight, H.A.; Birdsey, R.A. 1986. Recent area changes in 

southern forest ownerships and cover types. Res. Pap. SE–260. 

Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Southeastern Forest Experiment Station. 10 p.

Bechtold, W.A.; Sheffield, R.M. 1981. Forest statistics for Florida, 1980. 

Resour. Bull. SE–58. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station. 40 p.

Brown, M.J. 1990. Harvest rates on adverse sites in the southeast. Southern 

Journal of Applied Forestry. 14(4): 166-170.

Brown, M.J. 1996. Forest statistics for Florida, 1995. Resour. Bull. SRS–6. 

Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Southern Research Station. 48 p.

Brown, M.J.; Thompson, M.T. 1988. Forest statistics for Florida, 1987. 

Resour. Bull. SE–101. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station. 61 p.

De Steiguer, J.E.; Hayden, L.W.; Holley, D.L., Jr. [and others]. 1989. 

Southern Appalachian timber study. Gen. Tech. Rep. SE–56. Asheville, 

NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern 

Forest Experiment Station. 45 p.

Haynes, R.W.; Adams, D.M.; Mills, J.R. 1995. The 1993 timber assessment 

update. Gen. Tech. Rep. RM–259. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range 

Experiment Station. 66 p.

Husch, B.; Miller, C.I.; Beers, T.W. 1982. Forest mensuration. 3rd ed. New 

York: John Wiley. 402 p.

Mills, J.R.; Kincaid, J.C. 1992. The aggregate timberland assessment 

system—ATLAS: a comprehensive timber assessment model. Gen. 

Tech. Rep. PNW–281. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 160 p.

Prestemon, J.P.; Abt, R.C. 2002. Timber products supply and demand. 

In: Wear, David N.; Greis, John G., eds. Southern forest resource 

assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS–53. Asheville, NC: U. S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station: 299-325. 

Chapter 14.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 1988. The South’s fourth 

forest: alternatives for the future. For. Res. Rep. 24. Washington, DC. 

512 p.

Wear, D.N. 2002. Land use. In: Wear, David N.; Greis, John G., eds. 

Southern forest resource assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS–53. 

Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Southern Research Station. 153-173. Chapter 6. 

Wear, David N.; Greis, John G. 2002. Southern forest resource assessment: 

summary report. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-54. Asheville, NC: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 

103 p.

hardwood volume occurring over the past decade or changes 

in hardwood management that may result. Therefore, 

tracking the dynamics of Florida’s timber industry, including 

changes in utilization standards and creation of markets for 

new products, is key to accurately projecting both hardwood 

and softwood timber supply. Updating the ATLAS model 

with new annual inventory data will greatly improve future 

projections. 



Conner, Roger C.; Sheffield, Raymond M. 2005. Analysis of the timber situation in Florida, 1995 to 2025. 

Res. Pap. SRS–42. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 

17 p.

The demand for wood fiber nationwide is expected to increase in the foreseeable future. Harvesting restrictions 

on forest lands in the West have increased pressure on the South’s forest resources to provide more wood. 

The ability of Florida and other Southern States to respond is uncertain. The authors describe the current 

extent, condition, and availability of Florida’s timber resource and project levels of growing-stock volume, net 

annual growth, and annual removals to the year 2025. They base those projections on future timber demand, 

as represented by harvest requests. The extent of the State’s timber resource is determined by 1995 estimates 

of forested acres and by the rate at which acres are being added or removed from the timber base due to 

natural or human-caused activities. Forest condition is represented by annual rates of growth and mortality 

and their combined effect on levels of timber volume. Timber availability is largely dictated by ownership 

and, for the purposes of this paper, by the age of forest stands. Future timber harvest requests for Florida are 

derived from projections of estimated removals throughout the South as documented in the 1993 Resources 

Planning Act report. The Aggregate Timberland Assessment System (ATLAS) was the model used to project 

future estimates of growing stock, net growth, and removals in response to increased harvest requests. Overall, 

projections suggest that Florida is well positioned to meet increased demand for wood, in spite of an expected 

shortfall of available southern yellow pine volume on forest-industry timberland by 2010. However, crucial 

factors influencing future timber availability in Florida are retaining the current timber base and working with 

ever-changing public sentiments about forest-management practices.

Keywords: ATLAS simulations, FIA, final harvest, forest industry, forest-management types, harvest 

scenarios, nonindustrial private owners, partial cutting, public, timber projections, yield tables.
The Forest Service, United States Department of 

Agriculture (USDA), is dedicated to the principle 

of multiple use management of the Nation’s forest 

resources for sustained yields of wood, water, forage, 

wildlife, and recreation. Through forestry research, cooperation 

with the States and private forest owners, and management of 

the National Forests and National Grasslands, it strives—as 

directed by Congress—to provide increasingly greater service to 

a growing Nation.

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