Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change

This project was supported by Grant No. 2010-DB-BX-K003 awarded by the Bureau of Justice Assistance, Office of Justice 

Programs. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the 

author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of Justice.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary .......................................................................................................1

Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies: Moving 

Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change ....................................................3

The First Century of Law Enforcement Analytics.................................................3

Perspectives on the Analytic Function.................................................................6

Current Research and the Growth of an Analytic Capability................................8

BJA Targeting Violent Crime Initiative (TVCI)...........................................9

OJP Strategic Approach to Community Safety Initiative (SACSI)...........11

NIJ National Study of Law Enforcement Intelligence ..............................12

Michigan State University, Intelligence Toolbox Training Program—

Intelligence-Led Policing Self-Assessment .............................................12

Integrating Crime Analysis With Patrol Operations .................................13

ILP Research Implications.................................................................................13

Smart Policing Initiative (SPI) .................................................................14

Real-Time Crime Centers .......................................................................14

The Next Century of Law Enforcement Analytics ..............................................15

Training .............................................................................................................15

Conclusions.......................................................................................................16

Appendix A........................................................................................................19
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change

1

Executive Summary

Analysis has been a part of American policing for more than a century. Evolving

from pin mapping to comparative data tables; from simple patterns analysis and batch 

processing on mainframe computers to user interface with real-time analysis; and 

eventually to more flexible and sophisticated analysis, such as the Geographic 

Information System (GIS), law enforcement has used a variety of analytics to respond to 

crime. After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the need for more robust 

intelligence capabilities and analytic capacity at the state and local law enforcement 

levels became more apparent than ever before.

Today, the law enforcement analytic function can vary from agency to agency 

based on the needs of the organization. Whether accomplished by staff analysts who 

focus on departmental and organizational issues such as budget, policy, and systems, 

or by line analysts who focus on tactical and strategic analysis for various functions 

within an agency, effective integration of analysis has been shown to increase law 

enforcement efficiency and effectiveness in both urban and rural jurisdictions. However, 

while the benefits of a robust analytic function have been demonstrated through a 

variety of initiatives, the current economic crisis and the slow rate of change within the 

policing culture have resulted in an ongoing need to increase analytic capabilities.

Considering the anticipated exponential growth in information and the 

consequential technology expansion, increased analytic capacity could become the 

single most-important resource for criminal justice agencies in America. Moving into the 

next century, agencies should invest in increased analytic capacity to move beyond a 

world of data analysis of past and current crime trends, and they should incorporate 

additional factors to efficiently and effectively create a more comprehensive policing 

strategy. 

This report provides an in-depth look at the successful integration of analytics 

within law enforcement agencies. It examines the application and impact of several 

initiatives, some of which are based on intelligence-led policing, to include:

• Bureau of Justice Assistance, Targeting Violent Crime Initiative

• Office of Justice Programs, Strategic Approach to Community Safety Initiative

• National Institute for Justice, Study of Law Enforcement Intelligence

• Michigan State University, Intelligence Toolbox Training Program—

Intelligence-Led Policing Self-Assessment

• Community-Oriented Policing Services, Integrating Crime Analysis with Patrol 

Operations

Through the examination of these successful analytic initiatives and in 

anticipation of the future explosion of the data availability, this report emphasizes the 

following findings regarding fundamental steps to increase analytic capacity:
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change

2

• Every law enforcement agency can benefit from developing an analytic 

capacity.

• Analysts need to have a broad training program to facilitate their ability to 

fulfill a range of analytic roles within medium-sized and smaller agencies.

• Law enforcement agencies need to develop a professional career track for 

analysts.

• Medium-sized and smaller agencies need to develop an integrated analytic 

model to service diverse functions (intelligence analysis, crime analysis, realtime crime, etc.).

• The culture of law enforcement administrators, officers, and elected officials 

must embrace the value provided by an analyst as a professional member of 

a law enforcement agency’s crime control team.

The Bureau of Justice Assistance, Law Enforcement Forecasting Group offers

these recommendations as a means to identify and anticipate problems, forecast crime 

trends and patterns, allocate agency resources, and prevent or mitigate criminal activity 

critical to enhancing community safety.
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change

3

Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement 

Agencies: Moving Beyond Data Analysis 

to Create a Vision for Change

Many successful businesses use operations research—the application of 

specialized analytical methods to help make operational decisions—as a critical 

component of their business plans to maximize productivity. Theme parks, such as 

Disney and Universal Studios, use queuing theory to develop the way lines are 

designed for attractions, to determine how many guests may be serviced at each 

iteration of the attraction, and to decide how long each attraction iteration should last. 

National restaurant chains use path and demographic analysis to aid in deciding on 

locations to build their facilities. Manufacturing businesses, such as Ford and General 

Motors, use critical path analysis to design the floor plans and sequencing of 

manufacturing and assembly points. All of these forms of analysis are complex and 

time-consuming; however, businesses have learned that such analysis is worth the 

investment to ensure efficiency, effectiveness, quality service delivery, and increased 

profits. While a wide body of empirical evidence shows that the use of analysis can 

increase the productivity and effectiveness for all types of organizations, law 

enforcement has nonetheless been slow to embrace it, particularly as a core 

management function.

The First Century of Law Enforcement Analytics

The first documented use of analysis in 

American policing was in 1906 by August 

Vollmer, the “father of American policing,” in 

Berkeley, California. Using rudimentary 

analysis, Vollmer structured patrol beats based 

on the review of police reports and pin-mapping 

crimes. His protégé, O. W. Wilson, practiced 

and advocated further use of analysis in 

policing in his books Police Administration1

(1950) and Police Planning2 (1957). Stronger 

and broader recommendations for analysis in law enforcement organizations came from 

the President’s Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice3 in 

1967, recommending the use of crime analysis, particularly in support of team policing.

4

 

In the 1970s, crime analysis was a core component of one of the decade’s primary 

crime control initiatives—the Integrated Criminal Apprehension Program.

5

 Most of this 

 1

Wilson, Orlando W. (1950). Police Administration. New York: McGraw-Hill Publishing Company. 2

Wilson, Orlando W. (1957). Police Planning. New York: McGraw-Hill Publishing Company. 3

President’s Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice. (1967). The Challenge of Crime in a 

Free Society. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/42.pdf 4

Gay, William, et al. (1976). Neighborhood Team Policing—National Evaluation Program—Phase 1 Summary Report. 

Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. https://www.ncjrs.gov/app/Search/Abstracts.aspx?id=35296 5

As an example, see: Greenwood, Peter. (1979). The RAND Criminal Investigation Study. Santa Monica, CA: 

RAND Corporation. http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P6352.html
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change

4

analysis was rudimentary, relying on pin maps, comparative data tables, and some 

simple patterns analysis. While analysis was employed by some agencies, it was not 

widespread, being typically limited to major cities, with analysts being largely viewed as 

clerical workers who did not directly contribute to core policing operations.

As community policing emerged in the 1980s, there was a growing interest in law 

enforcement for analyzing not only crime trends but also 

trends in calls for service and community disorder, operating 

under the theory that eliminating endemic disorder6 in a 

community would prevent crime.

7

 Changes in technology 

also aided in more sophisticated analysis. Mainframe 

computers were transitioning from batch processing systems 

to individual user interface with real-time analysis, permitting 

more individualized analysis of crime problems and/or 

geographic locations. Microcomputing was also emerging. 

This permitted even more flexible analysis, particularly as 

Geographic Information System (GIS) software was 

becoming more readily available. 

The community policing philosophy expanded in the late 1980s and 1990s into 

problem-oriented policing,

8 and the need for analysis became even more prevalent. 

Expanding further into the CompStat9 model, more data and GIS requirements were 

being developed in police departments. Computer technology, more sophisticated 

software, and the growth of networking, including the Internet, resulted in a significant 

increase in data and mapping. While mounds of documents were being produced, the 

quality of the analysis remained largely unsophisticated: measures of central tendency, 

comparison of tabular data, and multilayered maps. Similarly, 

analysts were not viewed as being “equal” to sworn officers 

and consequently were more likely to be viewed as 

expendable in cases of financial exigency. 

Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001,

the focus on analysis shifted to a new direction: intelligence 

analysis for counterterrorism. Law enforcement agencies 

began developing more robust intelligence capacities, based 

on guidance from the National Criminal Intelligence Sharing 

Plan10 and other products of the Global Intelligence Working 

Group, investments in law enforcement intelligence by the 

 6

Kelling, George L. and Catherine M. Coles. (1996). Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime 

in our Communities. New York: Martin Kessler Books.

7

Carter, David L. (2002). The Police and the Community. 7th ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc.

8

Goldstein, Herman. (1990). Problem-Oriented Policing. New York: McGraw-Hill Publishing. 9

Wilson, James, et al. (1990). CompStat in Practice: An In-Depth Analysis of Three Cities. Washington, DC: Police 

Foundation.

10http://it.ojp.gov/documents/NCISP_Plan.pdf
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change

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U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security 

(DHS), and the implementation of state and major urban area fusion centers. 

While the increased focus and need for intelligence capacities emerged, the 

demand for intelligence analysts also increased. However, the law enforcement 

community was challenged by the limited availability of relevant intelligence analyst 

training programs. The analyst training programs that were available were offered 

largely on an ad hoc basis and tended to be of an introductory nature. There were 

virtually no advanced training programs teaching critical thinking, statistical analysis, or 

operations research methodologies that could be applied to intelligence analysis. There 

remains a relative dearth in advanced analyst training.

As state and local law enforcement began developing their intelligence 

capacities, they began focusing on all crimes, not just terrorism, and the use of 

intelligence-led policing11 (ILP) as a driving philosophy of policing.

12 Important, for ILP 

to be successful, the analytic capacity of the agency must be robust. While evaluation 

data are relatively limited to this extent, through the evolution and use of law 

enforcement analysts in previous generations of policing philosophy, some qualitative 

and quantitative empirical information exists demonstrating the use of analysts as part 

of the development of ILP.

Beyond operational initiatives, such as ILP, there is an inescapable factor that 

most law enforcement agencies are currently facing: economic distress. The current 

economic crisis is having a major impact on agency budgets, often initially addressed by 

not filling vacant positions, reducing responses to certain types of calls, keeping cars 

and equipment longer, limiting training, and reducing some services. The economic 

crisis does not, however, reduce crime or calls for police service—indeed, sometimes 

the demand increases during economic distress. To overcome the economic handicap, 

law enforcement needs to work smarter; an effective analytic capacity can provide this 

by identifying priority threats, providing insight into changes in call demands (both their 

nature and geographic locations), and enhancing officer responses to handle crimes 

and calls not only more quickly but also by being armed with better information for 

decision making. Effective analysis can serve somewhat as a counterbalance to budget 

reductions. To reinforce this perspective, a recent study of federal, state, and local law 

enforcement agencies found that hiring for entry-level analysts in support of the law 

enforcement intelligence function is likely to increase in the near future despite budget 

reductions.13

 11For an historical and developmental discussion of ILP, see: Carter, David L. and Jeremy G. Carter. (2009). 

Intelligence-Led Policing: Conceptual and Functional Considerations for Public Policy. Criminal Justice Policy 

Review, 20(3), 310–325. 12 For a detailed discussion of ILP implementation, see: Carter, David L. (2009). Law Enforcement Intelligence: A 

Guide for State, Local, and Tribal Law Enforcement Agencies. 2d. ed. Washington, DC: Office of Community 

Oriented Policing Services. 

13Bergendahl, Whitney. (2012). Entry-Level Hiring Projection for Law Enforcement Intelligence. Erie, PA: Institute for 

Intelligence Studies, Mercyhurst College, p. 2.
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change

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Perspectives on the Analytic Function

There are different types of analyst positions and different roles an analyst may 

fill in a law enforcement agency. Broadly defined, there are staff analysts who perform 

financial analysis of the department’s budget; policy analysts who determine the efficacy

of current policies and potential alternatives; and systems analysts whose 

responsibilities are to determine if all components of the law enforcement agency are 

working at peak efficiencies and are effective in accomplishing organizational goals. 

There are also line analysts who can be categorized in different ways. They may be 

classified based on analytic orientation (e.g., tactical or strategic analysis) or by 

functional responsibility (e.g., crime analyst, intelligence analyst, investigative analyst). 

Hence, the types and roles of analysts will be dependent on several factors, such as the 

size of the agency, resources, strategic priorities of the chief executive, and special 

analytic needs of the agency. Large agencies may be best served by having multiple 

specialty analysts, while smaller agencies may need a generalist who performs hybrid 

functions. In reality, the characteristics of the agency, the agency’s resources, and the 

value the chief executive places on the analytic function will drive analytic staffing.

For this paper, the important factor to understand is that management must 

identify the analytic needs of the agency and then recruit a candidate or candidates who 

can perform the types of analysis that are needed. There have been some efforts to 

create national standards for analysts,

14 but more work needs to be done to define 

educational criteria, skill sets, and performance standards based on the requirements of 

each “analytic discipline.”

Despite the type of analyst, clearly an important skill set for any contemporary 

law enforcement analyst is the capability to use different technologies. With continuous 

changes in technology, it is imperative that all analysts be offered continuous training 

and education. For example, the proliferation of social media has opened a new area 

that can provide important information about social trends with a criminal nexus as well 

as identify criminal offenders. Without question, new and innovative technologies and 

technological applications will emerge that will require continuing education for analysts 

to develop their expertise.

With respect to expertise, there are sophisticated analytic tools available, such as 

spatial analytics, artificial intelligence, statistical analytic software, and qualitative 

analytic tools, all of which can provide the analyst with a wide range of integrated output 

examining a diverse array of multivariate analyses stratified in many combinations.15 

While these are important and useful tools, they still require critical thinking skills of the 

analyst to interpret the meaning of the output. These tools can be valuable, particularly 

when dealing with both large amounts of complex data and a large number of variables, 

but the output has limited value without skilled interpretation.

 14As one illustration, see: Law Enforcement Analytic Standards. (2004). Washington, DC: Global Justice 

Information Sharing Initiative and the International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts. 15While there are many such analytic tools currently available on the market, it would be inappropriate to identify 

specific vendors in this BJA-sponsored paper.
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change

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Just as there is an array of analytic tools, there is also a wide range of analytic 

techniques16—both qualitative and quantitative—that are available for the analyst, 

ranging from the simple (e.g., an association matrix) to the sophisticated (e.g., statistical 

modeling). The critical factor is to have a trained analyst who can select the proper 

analytic methodology(ies) to solve the problem or answer the question that is being 

posed. Similarly, analysts have an important role to “drill down” into the problem, which 

includes knowing how to ask and answer important questions. Identifying crime 

hotspots, measuring social trends, developing evidence for criminal liability, determining 

the effectiveness of a crime control tactic, determining the capabilities and effects of a 

criminal enterprise, and determining the best financial investment for the purchase of a 

fleet of police cars are all examples of analytic problems, each requiring a different 

analytic methodology. To be effective, the analyst must select and employ the 

methodology that will most accurately answer the question.

Both the analytic tools and techniques are enhanced by the evolution of 

technology. Analytic, or computational, technology is evolving with processing times 

getting faster and memory expanding, both at a surprisingly small cost, which in turn 

means the analyst is able to manipulate larger amounts of data in complex pairings with 

sophisticated software that can output the results in diverse forms from simple 

histograms to multilayered color maps. The cumulative impact of tools, techniques, and 

technology will provide analytic outputs that are more robust and timely. While this will 

be valuable to the analyst’s role, perhaps the more interesting technological 

developments will be in data-capturing technology: radio frequency identification, smart 

imaging, the array of diverse sensing technology, and even smartphones. All of these 

and other emerging data-collection technologies will permit a greater breadth of analysis 

at micro levels. The result will be more actionable analytic products.

Ideally, the law enforcement agency would develop an internal analytic capacity 

which would provide a more consistent and timely information flow. In addition, an 

analyst who is employed by the agency (as a budgeted position, not a grant-supported 

position) will have a better understanding of the organization, its capabilities, and its 

challenges, all of which can be particularly important when the analyst makes policy or 

operational recommendations. In some cases, the nature of a problem or the amount of 

time required to perform an analysis may require a different organizational model. For 

example, hiring specialist consultants or partnering with a university or professional 

organization may provide the most fruitful approach to deal with special or complex 

analytic problems.

Perhaps one of the greatest challenges in developing a more analytic-driven 

agency will require organizational change. Reengineering the organization to 

incorporate an analysis-driven approach will require continuous quality improvement. 

Just as important, and perhaps the most difficult obstacle, is the resocialization of law 

 16As sample illustrations, see: (1) Peterson, Marilyn, et al. (1996). Successful Law Enforcement Using Analytic 

Methods. Richmond, VA: International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts.; (2) Carter, 

David L. (2009). “Chapter 10: Managing Information.” Law Enforcement Intelligence: A Guide for State, Local, and 

Tribal Law Enforcement Agencies. 2d ed. Washington, DC: Community Oriented Policing Services Office. 
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change

8

enforcement and government personnel to accept a different approach to policing a 

community. The image of a uniformed, armed law enforcement officer in a crime-ridden 

neighborhood is a challenging icon to replace with an analyst; while that is not a 

practical portrayal, it is the political portrayal that will be used by those who oppose the 

move to an analytical model. Resocialization will occur when the consumers of analytic 

products begin seeing increased efficiency and effectiveness of their activities—whether 

in a line or staff function—as a result of actionable analytic products. With increased 

appreciation of analytics within police agencies, improvement in capacity will follow. 

With successes that have been realized in problem solving, CompStat, evidencebased policing, ILP, and the Smart Policing Initiative, the foundation for an analysisdriven business process has been set in place. For greater success, there must be 

wider adoption of these practices by law enforcement agencies of all sizes. This 

requires, for many police and government leaders, rethinking and reengineering police 

business practices as well as the reallocation of resources to support the analytic 

functions. Finally, there should be an ongoing evaluation process to ensure the quality 

and effectiveness of analytic outcomes.

The key points to note are:

• There is a need for an analytic capacity in all agencies.

• There is a critical need for analysts in most medium- to large-sized agencies.

• These analysts must be trained in sophisticated analytic methods and 

technologies.

• Analysts should be treated by law enforcement organizations—including 

compensation—as practicing professionals who are critical to the success of 

the agency’s mission.

• Analyst positions should be funded through the budgeting process, not solely 

through grants.

• Analysts will increase the efficiency and effectiveness of law enforcement 

operations.

As will be seen, these factors are slowly being experienced.

Current Research and the Growth of an Analytic Capability

There are five sources of data that demonstrate the growth and value of analysis 

in law enforcement agencies, three of which involve ILP:

• Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) Targeting Violent Crime Initiative (TVCI) 

project site visits

• Office of Justice Programs (OJP) Strategic Approach to Community Safety 

Initiative (SACSI)

• National Institute of Justice (NIJ) National Study of Law Enforcement 

Intelligence
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change

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• ILP Self-Assessments, as part of a Michigan State University intelligence 

training program funded by DHS

• Research on the integration of crime analysis with patrol operations, funded 

by the Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS)

BJA Targeting Violent Crime Initiative (TVCI):

As the intelligence capability of American law enforcement agencies matured, 

BJA proposed that the lessons learned from ILP could apply to violent crime as well as 

terrorism. As a result, BJA created the TVCI17 as a test to see how law enforcement 

agencies could apply ILP to crimes beyond terrorism. As TVCI-grantee agencies began 

developing and implementing programs, a number of promising initiatives emerged that 

had the potential of being replicated in other agencies around the country. In each of 

these initiatives, the key to success was successful analysis. The following three

examples will illustrate the value and application of analysis.

• The City of Richmond, Virginia, was experiencing a significant increase in 

homicides with clearance rates at an unsatisfactory level. Two factors

became clear to police managers—

they did not fully understand the 

nature of these increases, and the 

department’s traditional approach to 

homicide investigations was not being 

successful. With a fundamental 

premise that “If you can’t measure it, 

you can’t manage it,” the police 

department began performing a 

detailed analysis of the homicide

problem in Richmond. The analysis found that the core of the problem 

appeared to be violence associated with the drug trade, a significant number

of which crimes were resulting in homicide. As a result, the homicide 

investigation function was reengineered, with the first focus being on analysis 

of crimes. The department developed the Focus Mission Team, which is a 

proactive crime focus initiative driven by analysts. The analysts work closely 

with sworn officers and provide high-quality, substantive analysis using 

diverse analytic tools and mapping in order to better understand crime trends, 

circumstances of criminal incidents, and forecasts of probable future violence

(most notably, retaliation homicides). Stepping beyond the traditional 

analyst’s role, the Richmond Police Department analysts often respond to 

crime scenes with investigating officers as well as meet with community 

members. These activities provide new information and context to aid the 

analysts in providing more robust analytic products. These products are not 

only used by investigators but also are distributed to patrol officers for the 

purpose of driving directed patrol based on the findings of the analysis.

 17http://bja.ncjrs.gov/annualreport/2009/chap-6.html
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change

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• Evans County, Georgia, is a rural county of 12,000 residents located between 

Savannah and Macon. The sheriff’s office has 12 deputies to not only police 

the county but to also support the municipal police in two small communities: 

Claxton, Georgia, with eight police officers, and Hagan, Georgia, with four 

officers. The motivation for this project was the problems transitioning 

between the municipalities and the county. Neither the sheriff’s office nor the 

municipal police departments, however, had a good understanding of the 

ongoing crime problems and the relationships 

between potential victims and offenders. While 

there were suspicions and assumptions about 

the nature of crimes and offenders, the 

information was not being effectively shared 

and integrated. The Evans County Sheriff’s 

Office (ECSO) hired an analyst to better 

understand the crime problems. To facilitate 

information sharing among agencies within 

and around Evans County on limited budgets, 

the ECSO also purchased smartphones for 

all deputies and municipal officers. Using 

the smartphones as the method of 

communications, the analyst pushed 

intelligence products countywide, including a 

daily “electronic roll-call briefing.” Not only 

were linkages between crimes and offenders 

identified, but the clearance rate for crimes in the county significantly

increased. In addition, crimes in neighboring counties were identified and 

new partnerships were forged, with federal, state, and local law enforcement 

relying on the products of the ECSO intelligence analyst.

• Although not a TVCI grantee, the Medford, Oregon, Police Department (MPD)

effectively incorporated analysis into all aspects of department functions. 

Medford is a city of 76,860 people located in southwest Oregon just north of 

the California state line. An upper-income retirement community, the city 

nevertheless has an unemployment rate of 13 percent and an above-average 

school dropout rate. Like many other communities, Medford has experienced 

a rising gang problem. Prior to 

initiating a plan for crime control, the 

MPD conducted an intensive analysis 

of the community, crime data, and 

calls for service. Using new 

knowledge gained from this analysis, 

patrol beats were realigned and 

staffing was allocated based on 

demand. Beyond the use of analysis 

to reengineer the structure of the 

police department to meet changes in 
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change

11

the community, analysis is used on a regular basis by patrol officers 

and investigators to address various crime problems. The department’s 

intelligence analysts are proactive, providing a wide range of intelligence 

products to police personnel. One of the striking aspects of the MPD is how 

the use of analysis is part of the department’s culture. Officers recognized 

the value analysts provided and consistently sought the analysts’ assistance 

and input on crimes and cases.

There are many other documented successes from the TVCI, demonstrating the 

value of analysts to law enforcement agencies that are willing to explore new policing 

models. As these two illustrations show, effective analysis can increase law 

enforcement efficiency and effectiveness in both urban and rural jurisdictions.18

OJP Strategic Approach to Community Safety Initiative (SACSI):

The SACSI exhaustively analyzed the soaring problem of youth homicide and 

firearms violence in ten cities. SACSI strategies in each city were developed and 

guided by multiagency, multidisciplinary core groups, with strong and effective 

leadership provided by U.S. Attorneys’ Offices. Each core group included research 

partners, and data analysis was well integrated into strategic planning and problem

solving. The intervention strategies spanned the continuum of enforcement to 

prevention and were implemented by working groups responsible for day-to-day 

activities. Successful elements of the SACSI approach include the leadership provided 

by U.S. Attorneys’ Offices, the integration of research, collaborative strategic planning 

by broad-based core groups, and a range of intervention strategies implemented by 

working groups. Evidence of the success of “lever-pulling meetings” was mixed, but the 

deterrent effect of focused suppression efforts was noted.19 A particularly successful 

example of the SACSI occurred in Rochester, NY.

Rochester employed a strategic planning process that led to the development 

and continuous refinement of strategic interventions designed to reduce homicides in 

the city using a mix of deterrence, incapacitation, and service perspectives. These 

strategies included changes in prosecution practices, group-focused intelligence 

gathering, targeted law enforcement efforts, delivery of a deterrence message and 

service alternative through offender call-ins, intensive supervision of designated 

probationers, and saturated patrol practices. Evaluation of the overall strategy showed

promising results with significant declines in homicides during the 12-month research 

period, particularly among the target population of young, black males. It is also clear 

that the SACSI has built on and extended the legacy of collaborative problem solving in 

criminal justice in Rochester. The collaborative planning process continues under 

Project Safe Neighborhoods and is also being applied to other problem areas, drug 

markets in particular. The violence prevention interventions are being institutionalized 

 18The case studies of the TVCI will be published in a forthcoming paper: Reducing Crime Through Intelligence-Led 

Policing. (Forthcoming). Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Assistance, U.S. Department of Justice. 19Roehl, Jan, et al. (2006). Strategic Approaches to Community Safety Initiative (SACSI) in 10 U.S. Cities. 

Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice. https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/212866.pdf
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

Moving Beyond Data Analysis to Create a Vision for Change

12

through training in the key criminal justice agencies. Analysts continue to play a 

significant role in these efforts. Finally, the process in Rochester has served as a model 

for problem analysis in national training for Project Safe Neighborhoods and is being 

used by the Division of Criminal Justice Services in New York State as a model for 

enhancing local analytic capacity and implementing interventions to reduce violence.20

NIJ National Study of Law Enforcement Intelligence:

The original project21 from which these data were gleaned was designed to 

examine two facets of law enforcement intelligence and information sharing: 1) identify 

the major obstacles of effective intelligence analysis and information sharing and 

2) identify best practices for integrating domestic intelligence into the information 

sharing environment. The survey was administered to law enforcement personnel who 

attended the DHS-funded training program “Developing an Intelligence Capacity in 

State, Local, and Tribal Law Enforcement Agencies.”22 In June 2009, when the survey 

was disseminated, the program had provided training to 2,395 law enforcement 

personnel from 1,624 agencies. 

The findings indicate that for ILP to be successful, there must be both an 

understanding of the concept by agency leaders and a commitment to change the 

organization (including resource reallocation). Of those agencies that had implemented

ILP, 87 percent reported that ILP was effective or very effective in crime control. 

These findings suggest that familiarity with the ILP concept, including the 

premise that ILP requires rigorous analysis, can also be interpreted as a recognized 

need to develop an analytic capability to drive ILP-related operations. The data also 

suggest that there is a substantial growth in the process to adopt ILP.23 Collectively, the 

data suggest that the analytic capability of law enforcement agencies is growing. 

Michigan State University, Intelligence Toolbox Training Program—Intelligence-Led 

Policing Self-Assessment: 

As part of a DHS-funded intelligence training program offered nationally over a 

five-year period, agencies were asked to conduct a self-assessment of their current ILP 

capacity, including the use of analysts. With respect to the findings, 87 percent of the 

respondents indicated they worked in a state or local law enforcement agency, with 

68 percent indicating their agency had more than 100 sworn personnel. Sixty-four 

 20Klofas, John, Christopher Delaney, and Trisha Smith. (2007). Strategic Approaches to Community Safety Initiative 

(SACSI) in Rochester, NY. Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice. 21Grant Number 2008-IJ-CX-0007 awarded to the School of Criminal Justice, Michigan State University, School of 

Criminal Justice in 2009. Co-Principal Investigators: Dr. David Carter, Dr. Edmund McGarrell, and 

Dr. Steve Chermak. 22This training program was developed and delivered by the School of Criminal Justice at Michigan State University 

through funding provided by the Department of Homeland Security-FEMA Training and Exercise Integration/Training 

Operations. 23For more detailed information on this analysis, see: Carter, Jeremy G. (2011). Police Innovation: Exploring the 

Adoption of Intelligence-Led Policing. A Dissertation. East Lansing, MI: School of Criminal Justice, Michigan State 

University.
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percent of the respondents indicated their agency has at least one intelligence analyst. 

However, only 48 percent indicated they received valuable strategic intelligence 

products and 42 percent stated they were provided with valuable tactical intelligence 

products. When asked if the agency provided officers with relevant actionable 

intelligence in a timely manner, only 47 percent responded affirmatively.

These data suggest a growing use of analysts by state and local law 

enforcement agencies. The findings also indicate there is a need for more advanced 

training and greater direction given to analysts by management on the types of 

intelligence products that are needed. This leads to an important point: for analysts to 

provide value to the policing enterprise, not only must analysts be given the skills that 

are needed to perform their job, but management needs to learn how to best provide 

direction and use analysts.

Integrating Crime Analysis With Patrol Operations: 

The COPS Office funded a national project24 to develop a guidebook for midlevel managers and commanders of law enforcement agencies who are looking for 

guidance in fully incorporating crime analysis into their agency, particularly into patrol. 

Part of this project involved conducting a national survey of 1,000 agencies stratified by 

agency type, size, and geography. The findings show that 89 percent of the responding 

agencies employ either a full-time crime analyst or have a staff member whose 

secondary responsibility is conducting crime analysis. While intuitively this seems to be 

a high proportion, it is most likely explained by the nature of the sample stratification 

and the fact that the data include not just full-time analysts but the assignment of some 

analytic responsibilities to a staff member. The importance of this finding is that 

responding agencies showed their support for the need and value of analysis in a law 

enforcement organization.

ILP Research Implications

Collectively, the data suggest that an analyst can provide an important role to a 

law enforcement agency by:

• Aiding in making complex decisions.

• Helping resolve problems that have inefficient processes.

• Aiding in reducing risk—both risk of crime and management risk.

• Making the greatest use of the data and information collected by the agency.

• Helping to identify new strategies for crime control.

• Helping realign organizational resources to meet crime and call demands.

 24Taylor, Bruce, et al. (2011). The Integration of Crime Analysis Into Patrol Work: A Guidebook. Washington, DC: 

Office of Community Oriented Policing Services, U.S. Department of Justice.
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

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These analytic applications can be seen in two current crime control initiatives 

where there is ongoing experimentation by law enforcement agencies: the Smart 

Policing Initiative and real-time crime centers.

Smart Policing Initiative (SPI): 

The cumulative experience of law enforcement’s use of analysis, particularly as it 

emerged with CompStat and evolved with intelligence analysis, provided new insights 

into the applications of analysis for police operations, albeit at a fairly superficial level, 

particularly when compared to the sophistication of operations research as used in the 

private sector. This was punctuated with the growth of technology and new common 

data practices and models, exemplified by the National Information Exchange Model.

25 

These factors led BJA to develop the SPI.26 The SPI seeks to build on the concepts of 

“offender-based” and “place-based” policing. Several authoritative longitudinal projects 

have demonstrated that a small number of offenders commit a disproportionate amount 

of crime. It is also well documented that reports of crime and calls for service often 

occur predominantly at specific locations or in narrow, easily defined areas. These 

findings reveal that effective policing requires a tightly focused, collaborative approach 

that is measurable; based on sound, detailed analysis; and includes policies and 

procedures to ensure accountability. The SPI aims to either build on these findings or 

to broaden the knowledge of other effective policing strategies. In addition, this initiative 

is designed to demonstrate the value of incorporating research, analysis, and the 

collection of performance measures into the regular strategic thinking and operational 

planning of law enforcement agencies.27 Obviously, the role of analysis is a core 

competency for success.

Real-Time Crime Centers: 

Another analytic initiative that is being explored by agencies—New York, Boston, 

Chicago, Memphis, Philadelphia, and Ogden—is the development of “real-time crime 

centers.” Driven by technological growth, an understanding of the decision-making 

value of timely comprehensive information sharing, and lessons learned from CompStat

and intelligence applications, police leaders are exploring ways to get this information 

into the hands of patrol officers and investigators as quickly and completely as possible. 

While there is no singular model, there are three components which appear to be 

critical: data warehousing, analysis of the data, and a communications mechanism that 

is fast and preferably has a visual capacity.28 As noted previously, law enforcement 

agencies collect massive amounts of information and data. The value of this 

information is that it can provide important information related to officer safety, crime 

environments, threats, emerging crime trends, and anomalies of disorder that may be a 

breeding ground for future crime. The challenge is how to organize, validate, and 

objectively analyze this information to ensure it is actionable while maintaining privacy 

 25http://www/niem.gov 26http://www.smartpolicinginitiative.com 27http://bja.ncjrs.gov/annualreport/2009/chap-6.html

28For example, see: D’Amico, Joseph. (2012). “Stopping Crime in Real Time.” Police Chief Magazine (January). 

http://www.policechiefmagazine.org/magazine/index.cfm?fuseaction=display&article_id=995&issue_id=92006
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protections. These represent some of the challenges in the new generation of law 

enforcement information sharing and will necessarily require a skilled analytic capability. 

The Next Century of Law Enforcement Analytics

Renowned futurist Ray Kurzweil’s law of accelerating returns asserts that the rate 

of change in technology and other evolutionary systems increases exponentially rather 

than in a linear fashion. According to Kurzweil:

An analysis of the history of technology shows that 

technological change is exponential, contrary to the 

common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So we won’t 

experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century—it will 

be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).29

A recent Digital Universe Study 

found that the world’s information is 

doubling every two years,

30 and many 

believe that by the year 2020, the 

amount of information available will

double every 73 days.31 Considering 

this anticipated exponential growth in 

information and the consequential 

technology expansion, increased analytic 

capacity could become the single most 

important resource for criminal justice 

agencies in America.

Just as corporate industries have embraced and invested in operations research 

for their success, criminal justice agencies will need to invest in increased analytic 

capacity to move beyond a world of data analysis and to efficiently and effectively 

create a more comprehensive vision for policing. The analytic capacity of law 

enforcement in the next century must move beyond examination of the past and current 

crime trends and use of current-day policing techniques; the future of law enforcement 

analytics must incorporate additional environmental factors, such as projected 

population, demographics, economics, and technology growth, in order to create a 

vision and strategy for change.

 29 Kurzweil, Ray, “The Law of Accelerating Returns,” March 2001. http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-acceleratingreturns

30 “Extracting Value from Chaos,” June 2011, sponsored by EMC. www.emc.com/digital_universe 31Appleberry, James B., "Changes in our Future: How Will We Cope?" Faculty speech presented at California State 

University, Long Beach, California, August 28, 1992.
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Training

The role and value of an analyst in law enforcement agencies of all sizes has 

been demonstrated. An important challenge to be faced is to properly staff analytic 

positions. The analyst’s role in the agency is a professional position that should be 

staffed by a person who possesses methodological and analytic skills as a result of his 

or her education and/or experience. These analysts will also need training on crimespecific issues, access and use of proprietary law enforcement networks and systems, 

legal issues, and processes required in a law enforcement agency.

To maximize the effectiveness of new analysts, a training program needs to be 

developed and offered on a consistent national basis. The most common training 

program for state and local law enforcement analysts currently available is the 

Fundamental Intelligence Analyst Training (FIAT) program. It is a substantively solid 

program but is actually only a curriculum, not a proprietary program offered by any 

given sponsor. As a result, FIAT is only offered periodically, is not offered on a national 

basis, and typically has a variable cadre of instructors. The course is also somewhat 

narrow, focusing on intelligence analysis, whereas a broader program could address the 

more expansive role of analysts (e.g., SPI and real-time crime) that could be used more 

effectively by a wider range of agencies.

Conclusions

There are different types of analysts: crime analysts, intelligence analysts, policy 

analysts, and systems analysts, to name a few. While the nature of the information they 

study may vary, the constant among all of these analysts is that they use the scientific 

approach to problem solving to perform their analysis. The late Carl Sagan, a worldrenowned astrophysicist, explained the scientific process this way: 

Science is a way of thinking much more than it is a body of 

knowledge. Its goal is to find out how the world works, to 

seek what regularities there may be, to penetrate to the 

connection of things . . . . Our intuition is by no means an 

infallible guide. Our perceptions may be distorted by training 

and prejudice or merely because of the limitations of our 

sense organs . . . Science is based on experiment, on a 

willingness to challenge old dogma, on an openness to see 

the universe as it really is . . . . If you spend any time 

spinning hypotheses, checking to see whether they make 

sense, whether they conform to what else we know, thinking 

of tests you can pose to substantiate or deflate your 

hypotheses, you will find yourself doing science.32

 32Sagan, Carl. (1979). Broca’s Brain: Reflections on the Romance of Science. New York: The Ballantine Publishing 

Group.
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It is the analyst who applies the scientific method to draw meaning from the data 

and information that is collected by a law enforcement agency. In making observations 

about data collection in policing, the RAND Corporation’s study Moving Toward the 

Future of Policing observed:

The massive increase in data collection and storage 

capability has resulted in an enormous increase in the 

amount of available information to which police organizations 

have access when trying to combat crime. Yet, without 

appropriate tools for organizing, managing, and sifting 

through these massive amounts of data, the data may drown 

police, not help them. All that data may do nothing more 

than require multiple times more man-hours for personnel to 

cull through the haystacks of data, looking for the needle. 

More data could simply mean more work, not smarter or 

more effective policing.33 

In order to understand the implications from this mass of data, trained analysts 

will be increasingly needed. The analyst can convert these “haystacks of data” into 

meaningful new knowledge on which management and operational decisions may be 

made. RAND goes on to observe that:

. . . advances that change the ways in which police 

departments gather, process, share, and protect data and 

information are going to have increasingly profound impacts 

on police organizations. Organizations will become more 

networked and systems-oriented in a shift toward datadriven policing.34 

It is the essential role of a trained analyst that is going to drive this type of 

organizational change. To begin this process, there are fundamental steps which need 

to be addressed:

• Every law enforcement agency, regardless of size, can benefit from 

developing an analytic capacity.

• Analysts need to have a broad training program to facilitate their ability to 

fulfill a range of analytic roles within medium-sized and smaller agencies.

• Law enforcement agencies need to develop a professional career track for 

analysts.

• Medium-sized and smaller agencies need to develop an integrated analytic 

model to service diverse functions (intelligence analysis, crime analysis, realtime crime, etc.).

 33Trevorton, Gregory, et al. (2011). Moving Toward the Future of Policing. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. 

p. 78.

34Ibid. p. 88.
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A final challenge is changing the culture of law enforcement administrators, 

officers, and elected officials to understand the value provided by an analyst as a 

professional member of a law enforcement agency’s crime control team. Proactive 

policing strategies that rely upon data and analysis as a method to identify and 

anticipate problems, forecast crime trends and patterns, allocate agency resources, and 

prevent or mitigate criminal activity are critical to enhancing community safety.
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

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Appendix A

Law Enforcement Forecasting Group Members
Increasing Analytic Capacity of State and Local Law Enforcement Agencies:

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Law Enforcement Forecasting Group Members

Sheriff John Cary Bittick

Monroe County, Georgia, Sheriff’s Office

Brenda Bond, Ph.D.

Suffolk University

Chief Jim Bueermann (Retired)

Redlands, California, Police Department

Bob Bushman

Minnesota Department of Public Safety

Chief Jane Castor

Tampa, Florida, Police Department

James Coldren, Ph.D.

Governors State University

Deputy Commissioner Nola Joyce

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Police Department

Colonel Steven McCraw

Texas Department of Public Safety

Chief Walter McNeil

Quincy, Florida, Police Department

Assistant Sheriff Ted Moody

Las Vegas, Nevada, Metropolitan Police Department

Interim Chief Randy Schoen

Sutherlin, Oregon, Police Department

Chief Ray Schultz

Albuquerque, New Mexico, Police Department

Larry Travis, Ph.D.

University of Cincinnati

Michael Wagers, Ph.D.

 International Association of Chiefs of Police