Prepared in cooperation with the Oregon Water Resources Department

Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the 

Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Scientific Investigations Report 2013–5092
Cover:

Upper Left: Irrigation diversion dam on the Deschutes River in Bend, Oregon, May 2002.

Upper Right: Groundwater-fed wetland between Cultus Lake and Crane Prairie Reservoir, August 2012.

Lower Left: Headwater spring feeding Fall River, Oregon, May 2002.

Lower right: Strata of the Deschutes Formation and overlying lavas exposed along the Crooked River, May 2002.

All photographs taken by Marshall Gannett, U.S. Geological Survey.
Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level 

Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, 

Central Oregon

By Marshall W. Gannett and Kenneth E. Lite, Jr.

Prepared in cooperation with the Oregon Water Resources Department

Scientific Investigations Report 2013–5092

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior

SALLY JEWELL, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey

Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2013

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Suggested citation:

Gannett, M.W., and Lite, K.E., Jr., 2013, Analysis of 1997–2008 groundwater level changes in the upper Deschutes 

Basin, Central Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013-5092, 34 p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/

sir/2013/5092.
iii

Contents

Abstract...........................................................................................................................................................1

Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................2

Study Area and Previous Work ..........................................................................................................2

Post-1997 Water-Level Trends............................................................................................................2

Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................5

Methods...........................................................................................................................................................5

Documenting Water-Level Changes..................................................................................................6

Modification of Model Input Files ......................................................................................................6

Groundwater Flow Simulation Analysis............................................................................................7

Changes in Hydrologic Conditions..............................................................................................................7

Groundwater-Level Changes ..............................................................................................................7

Changes in Groundwater Recharge from Precipitation...............................................................13

Decreases in Recharge from Lining and Piping Irrigation Canals .............................................13

Decreases in Recharge from On-Farm Losses..............................................................................13

Increases in Pumping.........................................................................................................................15

Simulation of 1997–2008 Groundwater Conditions.................................................................................19

Relative Effects of Climate, Pumping, and Canal Lining...............................................................19

La Pine Subbasin and Cascade Range ..................................................................................21

Sisters Area ................................................................................................................................23

Lower Bridge Area.....................................................................................................................23

Cline Buttes to Redmond Area ................................................................................................26

Redmond to Powell Butte Area ...............................................................................................26

Spatial Distribution of Pumping and Canal-Lining Influences.....................................................28

Summary .......................................................................................................................................................33

Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................................34

References Cited..........................................................................................................................................34

Figures

1. Map showing major geographic and cultural features of upper Deschutes Basin,

central Oregon ..............................................................................................................................3

2. Hydrographs of selected observation wells in the upper Deschutes Basin, central

Oregon, contrasting water-level trends in and near the Cascade Range with trends

in the basin interior.......................................................................................................................4

3. Graph showing annual mean discharge of Fall River in the upper Deschutes Basin,

central Oregon (USGS gage 14057500); annual (water-year) precipitation at Crater

Lake, Oregon; and cumulative departure from average precipitation at Crater Lake ......5

4. Map showing locations of selected observation wells in the upper Deschutes

Basin, central Oregon ..................................................................................................................8

5. Maps showing changes in measured springtime high-water levels in selected

observation wells in the upper Deschutes Basin, central Oregon ......................................9
iv

Figures—Continued

6. Graph showing water-level measurements in observation well 21S/11E-19CCC in

the La Pine subbasin, central Oregon, showing seasonal variations as well as the

effects of decadal climate fluctuations .................................................................................12

7. Graph showing water-level measurements in observation well 15S/13E-18ADD1

near Redmond, Oregon, showing continuous water-level declines since the 

early1990s ..................................................................................................................................12

8. Graph showing water-level measurements in observation well 14S/12E-02CCC near

Lower Bridge, northeast of Sisters, Oregon, showing continuous water-level

declines since the early 1990s..................................................................................................12

9. Graph showing estimated total annual groundwater recharge in the upper

Deschutes Basin, central Oregon, 1978–2008........................................................................13

10. Map showing spatial distribution and magnitude of estimated decreases in annual

canal leakage due to lining or piping of irrigation canals between 1994 and 2008 in

the upper Deschutes Basin, central Oregon..........................................................................14

11. Graph showing estimated annual groundwater pumping for irrigation in the upper

Deschutes Basin, central Oregon, 1978–2008........................................................................15

12. Graph showing estimated annual public-supply pumping in the upper Deschutes

Basin, central Oregon,1978–2008.............................................................................................15

13. Maps showing distribution of groundwater pumping in the upper Deschutes Basin,

central Oregon ............................................................................................................................16

14. Graphs showing measured streamflow and simulated groundwater discharge to

Fall River (USGS gage 14057500) and Odell Creek (USGS gage 14055600), upper

Deschutes Basin, central Oregon............................................................................................20

15. Graph showing simulated and measured head elevation in observation well

15S/13E-18ADD1 near Redmond, Oregon ...............................................................................20

16. Graph showing simulated head elevations in observation well 21S/11E-19CCC, a

100-foot deep well in the La Pine subbasin, central Oregon...............................................21

17. Graph showing simulated head elevations in observation well 22S/10E-10DDD01, a

1,458-foot deep well near La Pine, central Oregon...............................................................22

18. Graph showing simulated head elevations in observation well 13S/09E-03AAC02

near Camp Sherman, Oregon ...................................................................................................22

19. Graph showing simulated head elevations in observation well 14S/09E-08ABA

south of Black Butte, Oregon....................................................................................................23

20. Graph showing simulated head elevations in well 15S/10E-08ACD near Sisters,

Oregon ..........................................................................................................................................24

21. Graph showing simulated head elevations in well15S/10E-02CDA east of Sisters,

Oregon ..........................................................................................................................................24

22. Graph showing simulated head elevations in well 14S/11E-01DDD1 near Lower

Bridge, upper Deschutes Basin, central Oregon ..................................................................25

23. Graph showing simulated head elevations in well 14S/12E-02CCC near Lower

Bridge, upper Deschutes Basin, central Oregon ..................................................................25

24. Graph showing simulated head elevations in well 15S/13E-18ADD1 near Redmond,

Oregon .........................................................................................................................................26
v

Conversion Factors, Datums, and Location System

Conversion Factors

Inch/Pound to SI

Multiply By To obtain

Length

foot (ft) 0.3048 meter (m)

mile (mi) 1.609 kilometer (km)

Area

acre 4,047 square meter (m2)

acre 0.4047 square hectometer (hm2) 

square mile (mi2) 259.0 hectare (ha)

square mile (mi2) 2.590 square kilometer (km2) 

Volume

cubic foot (ft3) 28.32 cubic decimeter (dm3) 

cubic foot (ft3) 0.02832 cubic meter (m3) 

acre-foot (acre-ft) 1,233 cubic meter (m3)

acre-foot (acre-ft) 0.001233 cubic hectometer (hm3) 

Flow rate

acre-foot per year (acre-ft/yr) 1,233 cubic meter per year (m3/yr)

acre-foot per year (acre-ft/yr) 0.001233 cubic hectometer per year (hm3/yr)

cubic foot per second (ft3/s) 0.02832 cubic meter per second (m3/s)

Temperature in degrees Celsius (°C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (°F) as follows:

°F=(1.8×°C)+32

Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (°F) may be converted to degrees Celsius (°C) as follows:

°C=(°F-32)/1.8

Figures—Continued

25. Graph showing simulated head elevations in well 15S/12E-14CDD west of

Redmond, Oregon ......................................................................................................................27

26. Graph showing simulated head elevations in well 15S/13E-21ADB1 near Redmond,

Oregon .........................................................................................................................................27

27. Map showing increases in groundwater pumping since 1994 and simulated

groundwater-level declines resulting only from post-1994 increases pumping in the

upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon as of 2008 ...........................................................................29

28. Map of the upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon, showing estimated decreases in

annual canal leakage due to canal lining between 1994 and 2008, and simulated

groundwater-level declines resulting from decreased canal leakage .............................31
vi

Conversion Factors, Datums, and Location System

Datums

Vertical coordinate information is referenced to the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 

(NGVD 29).

Horizontal coordinate information is referenced to the North American Datum of 1927 (NAD 27).

Elevation, as used in this report, refers to distance above the vertical datum (NGVD 29).

Location System

The system used for locating wells, springs, and surface-water sites in this report is based 

on the rectangular system for subdivision of public land. The State of Oregon is divided into 

townships of 36 square miles numbered according to their location relative to the east-west 

Willamette baseline and a north-south Willamette meridian. The position of a township is given 

by its north-south “Township” position relative to the baseline and its east-west “Range” 

position relative to the meridian. Each township is divided into 36 one-square-mile (640-acre) 

sections numbered from 1 to 36. For example, a well designated as 14S/16E-32CBA is located 

in Township 14 south, Range 16 east, section 32. The letters following the section number 

correspond to the location within the section; the first letter (C) identifies the quarter section 

(160 acres); the second letter (B) identifies the quarter-quarter section (40 acres); and the third 

letter (A) identifies the quarter-quarter-quarter section (10 acres). Therefore, well 32CBA is 

located in the NE quarter of the NW quarter of the SW quarter of section 32. When more than 

one designated well occurs in the quarter-quarter-quarter section, a serial number is appended.

1

12

13

24

25

36

2

11

14

23

26

35

3

10

15

22

27

34

4

9

16

21

28

33

5

8

17

20

29

32

6

7

18

19

30

31

T. 14 S.

T. 16 S.

R. 16 E. R. 18 E.

2930

31

14S /16E 32CBA

C D

D

B A

A

DC

B A

C

R. 12 E. R. 14 E.

B

Well-numbering system
Abstract

Groundwater-level monitoring in the upper Deschutes 

Basin of central Oregon from 1997 to 2008 shows water-level 

declines in some places that are larger than might be expected 

from climate variations alone, raising questions regarding 

the influence of groundwater pumping, canal lining (which 

decreases recharge), and other human influences. Between the 

mid-1990s and mid-2000s, water levels in the central part of 

the basin near Redmond steadily declined as much as 14 feet. 

Water levels in the Cascade Range, in contrast, rose more than 

20 feet from the mid-1990s to about 2000, and then declined 

into the mid-2000s, with little or no net change.

An existing U.S. Geological Survey regional 

groundwater-flow model was used to gain insights into 

groundwater-level changes from 1997 to 2008, and to 

determine the relative influence of climate, groundwater 

pumping, and irrigation canal lining on observed waterlevel trends. To utilize the model, input datasets had to be 

extended to include post-1997 changes in groundwater 

pumping, changes in recharge from precipitation, irrigation 

canal leakage, and deep percolation of applied irrigation water 

(also known as on-farm loss). Mean annual groundwater 

recharge from precipitation during the 1999–2008 period 

was 25 percent less than during the 1979–88 period because 

of drying climate conditions. This decrease in groundwater 

recharge is consistent with measured decreases in streamflow 

and discharge to springs. For example, the mean annual 

discharge of Fall River, which is a spring-fed stream, 

decreased 12 percent between the 1979–88 and 1999–2008 

periods. Between the mid-1990s and late 2000s, groundwater 

pumping for public-supply and irrigation uses increased from 

about 32,500 to 52,000 acre-feet per year, partially because 

of population growth. Between 1997 and 2008, the rate of 

recharge from leaking irrigation canals decreased by about 

58,000 acre-feet per year as a result of lining and piping of 

canals. Decreases in recharge from on-farm losses over the 

past decade were relatively small, approaching an estimated 

1,000 acre-feet per year by the late 2000s. All these changes in 

the hydrologic budget contributed to declines in groundwater 

levels.

Groundwater flow model simulations indicate that 

climate variations have the largest influence on groundwater 

levels throughout the upper Deschutes Basin, and that 

impacts from pumping and canal lining also contribute but 

are largely restricted to the central part of the basin that 

extends north from near Benham Falls to Lower Bridge, and 

east from Sisters to the community of Powell Butte. Outside 

of this central area, the water-level response from changes 

in pumping and irrigation canal leakage cannot be discerned 

from the larger response to climate-driven changes in 

recharge. Within this central area, where measured water-level 

declines have generally ranged from about 5 to 14 feet since 

the mid- 1990s, climate variations are still the dominant factor 

influencing groundwater levels, accounting for approximately 

60–70 percent of the measured declines. Post-1994 increases 

in groundwater pumping account for about 20–30 percent 

of the measured declines in the central part of the basin, 

depending on location, and decreases in recharge due to canal 

lining account for about 10 percent of the measured declines. 

Decreases in recharge from on-farm losses were simulated, 

but the effects were negligible compared to climate influences, 

groundwater pumping, and the effects of canal lining and 

piping. 

Observation well data and model simulation results 

indicate that water levels in the Cascade Range rose and 

declined tens of feet in response to wet and dry climate cycles 

over the past two decades. Water levels in the central part of 

the basin, in contrast, steadily declined during the same period, 

with the rate of decline lessening during wet periods. This 

difference is because the water-level response from recharge is 

damped as water moves (diffuses) from the principal recharge 

area in the Cascade Range to discharge points along the main 

stems of the Deschutes, Crooked, and Metolius Rivers in the 

central part of the basin. Water levels in the central part of 

the basin respond more to multi-decadal climate trends than 

shorter term changes.

Groundwater-flow simulations show that the effects from 

increased pumping and decreased irrigation canal leakage 

extend south into the Bend area. However, the only wells 

presently monitored in the Bend area are heavily influenced 

by the Deschutes River, which dampens any response of water 

levels to external stresses such as groundwater pumping, 

changes in canal leakage, or climate variations.

Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the 

Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

By Marshall W. Gannett and Kenneth E. Lite, Jr.
2 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

Introduction

Study Area and Previous Work

The upper Deschutes Basin study area spans the part 

of central Oregon extending eastward from the crest of the 

Cascade Range to the low-permeability volcanic uplands of 

the Blue Mountains province (fig. 1). The northern boundary 

corresponds primarily to the geologic contact between late 

Tertiary volcanic deposits of Cascade Range origin and 

older, less permeable, early Tertiary deposits of the John Day 

Formation. The study area’s southern boundary corresponds 

to the boundary of the Deschutes River drainage. Interior 

parts of the basin are dominated by a broad volcanic plain 

punctuated by volcanic eruptive centers, the largest of which 

is Newberry Volcano. The region is dominated by late Tertiary 

to Quaternary volcanic deposits that are moderately to highly 

permeable. Most of the Cascade Range is at elevations greater 

than 5,000 ft, and major peaks exceed 10,000 ft. The Cascade 

Range intercepts much of the moisture in eastward-moving 

air masses from the Pacific Ocean. As a consequence, average 

precipitation exceeds 75 in/yr over most of the Cascade 

Range, but decreases to less than 12 in/yr in the central part of 

the basin.

The combination of high rates of precipitation and highly 

permeable bedrock results in a large amount of groundwater 

recharge in the Cascade Range. An estimated 50–70 percent 

of precipitation infiltrates to the groundwater system in the 

Cascade Range (Manga, 1997; Gannett and others, 2001). 

This recharge feeds a substantial regional aquifer system that 

extends from the Cascade Range to the older volcanic uplands 

east and north of the upper Deschutes Basin.

The upper Deschutes Basin is drained by the Deschutes 

River and its many tributaries. Streams in the upper Deschutes 

Basin are considered fully allocated and closed to additional 

appropriation. As a consequence, the regional aquifer system 

has been developed for agricultural and public water supplies. 

In addition, the vast majority of residents outside of cities 

depend on wells for domestic water supplies. Rapid growth of 

the upper Deschutes Basin in the past few decades has relied 

exclusively on the development of groundwater resources. 

Maintaining stable and reliable long-term groundwater 

supplies is critical to the region.

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a regional 

groundwater characterization and modeling study in the 

upper Deschutes Basin in the mid-1990s in cooperation with 

the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD), local 

government agencies, and the Confederated Tribes of the 

Warm Springs Reservation (Gannett and others, 2001; Gannett 

and Lite, 2004). During that study, approximately 1,500 wells 

were field inventoried. Water levels were monitored in 89 of 

these wells from 1993 to 1997 (Caldwell and Truini, 1997). 

Additional water-level data for a subset of these wells were 

available from an earlier period of monitoring from 1978 

to 1980. Analysis of data collected through 1997 indicated 

that water-level fluctuations were driven primarily by 

climate cycles. At that time, water-level declines related to 

groundwater pumping were not apparent in the data.

Post-1997 Water-Level Trends

Rapid population growth and the associated development 

of the groundwater resources in the upper Deschutes Basin has 

continued since the late 1990s. Water-level monitoring also 

has continued in a relatively small subset of wells. Waterlevel data collected since the late 1990s indicate a continued 

response to climate cycles in most wells, but many of the wells 

in the more developed central part of the upper Deschutes 

Basin appear to show declines larger than what might be 

expected from climate variations alone. For example, wells 

close to the Cascade Range and near Sisters in the western part 

of the upper Deschutes Basin (fig. 2, wells A and B) exhibited 

(1) drought-related water-level declines from the mid-1980s 

to about 1995, (2) water-level recovery in 1996 and 1997, 

(3) fairly stable water levels from 1997 to 2000, (4) another 

climate-driven decline from 2000 to 2006, and (5) another 

recovery between 2006 and 2008. The lowest water levels 

associated with the drought that occurred around 2005 were 

about the same as, or just slightly lower than, the lowest water 

levels associated with the previous drought in about 1995. In 

contrast, water levels around Redmond and the area to the east 

(fig. 2, wells C and D) showed no recovery since the drought 

in the mid-1990s, and water levels have been on a more or less 

steady decline ever since. As of 2008, water levels in wells 

near Redmond were about 10–14 ft lower than the lowest 

water levels associated with the previous drought.

There are a number of possible causes of the measured 

water-level declines in parts of the upper Deschutes Basin. 

Chief among possible causes are climate-related decreases in 

basin-wide groundwater recharge from precipitation, increased 

groundwater pumping, and decreases in local groundwater 

recharge as a result of lining and piping of irrigation canals. 

Flow data from groundwater-dominated streams indicate that 

the Cascade Range aquifers in the upper Deschutes Basin have 

been affected by a drying trend since the 1950s. This can be 

seen in the general decline in flow of spring-fed streams in 

undeveloped parts of the basin. For example, since the 1950s, 

the annual mean streamflow of Fall River has shown a steady 

decline superimposed over decadal wet and dry cycles (fig. 3). 

A general decrease in flow of groundwater-dominated stream 

systems emanating from the Cascade Range in the Klamath, 

Rogue, and Umpqua Basins over the past 50 years has been 

documented by Mayer and Naman (2011). Luce and Holden 

(2009) documented decreases in streamflow from the Santiam 

and Metolius Rivers as part of a larger analysis of streams in 

the Pacific Northwest. Some proportion of the groundwaterlevel declines in the central parts of the upper Deschutes Basin 

is the result of this long-term drying trend.
Introduction 3

tac13-0819_fig01

'

Wickiup

Reservoir Davis

Lake

East

Lake

Lava

Lake

Lake Billy

Chinook

Suttle

Lake

Cultus

Lake

Quinn River

Crescent

Lake

Odell

Lake

Paulina

Lake

Crane 

Prairie 

Reservoir

Prineville 

Reservoir

Ochoco 

Reservoir

Browns

Dry

Creek

River

Jefferson

Creek

Crooked

Crooked River

River

Whychus

Metolius

River

Metolius

North

River

Santiam

River

Odell

Fall

River

Cr

Crescent

Creek

Creek

Creek

Tumalo

Little

Deschutes

DESCHUTES

RIVER

River

Cr Paulina

Round

Butte

Dam

Cultus

River

Benham

Falls

Arnold Canal

Central

Oregon

Canal 

North Unit

Main Canal

Cline

Buttes

Powell

Buttes

Powell 

Butte

McKinney

Butte

Newberry Volcano

La Pine Subbasin

Black

Butte

Gage 14057500

Gage 14055600

Bend

Madras

Sisters

Redmond

La Pine

Prineville

Camp 

Sherman

Lower 

Bridge

BLUE MOUNTAINS

WHEELER

JEFFERSON

CROOK

LINN

LANE

DESCHUTES

MARION

KLAMATH

DOUGLAS

HIGH LAVA PLAINS

WASCO

LAKE

Base map modified from U.S. Geological Survey and other digital data sources, various scales. 

Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 10; 

North American Datum of 1927

SISTERS

FAULT ZONE

C

A

S

C

A

D E

R

A

N

G

E

122° 121°30' 121° 120°30'

44°30'

44°

43°30'

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 MILES

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 KILOMETERS

T.

10

S.

R. 10 E. R. 20 E.

T.

20

S.

OREGON

Study

Area

Deschutes 

Basin

EXPLANATION

Study area

USGS gaging station

and No.

Gage 14055600

Figure 1. Major geographic and cultural features of upper Deschutes Basin, central Oregon.
4 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

There also are potential human influences on water- level 

changes in the basin including changes in pumping and 

irrigation-related activities. Groundwater pumping affects 

head-distribution in aquifers, and water-level declines are 

a normal consequence. Generally, if pumping rates do not 

exceed the aquifer’s ability to provide water, water levels will 

stabilize over time. Groundwater pumping has continued to 

increase in the basin since the mid-1990s, and the measured 

declines are at least partially coincident with known pumping 

centers.

Groundwater recharge from leaking irrigation canals 

elevated water levels in the central part of the upper Deschutes 

Basin over the past century. Previous studies (Sceva, 1968; 

Gannett and others, 2001) have shown that canal leakage is 

a significant component of the groundwater budget and also 

has resulted in increased baseflow to the lower Crooked River. 

Groundwater-level measurements from the early 1900s before 

installation of the canal network are virtually nonexistent, 

so it is not possible to know how much water levels have 

risen in response to irrigation canal leakage. During the past 

two decades, there has been substantial lining and piping of 

irrigation canals for conservation purposes. The consequent 

decrease in recharge has resulted in declines in groundwater 

levels in some areas, particularly near the affected canals.

There also is a small amount of artificial groundwater 

recharge from deep percolation of applied irrigation water. 

These “on-farm” losses in the upper Deschutes Basin were 

estimated by Gannett and others (2001) to average 

about 49,000 acre-ft/yr (68 ft3/s) in the mid-1990s.

From 2001 to 2009, on-farm losses decreased slightly 

because small amounts of acreage have been taken out of 

production and the water rights have been leased, so water 

may remain in streams. Part of the reason for doing this is 

to mitigate the impacts of new groundwater uses. Estimated 

decreases in groundwater recharge from on-farm losses were 

included in simulation work for this study, but their effects on 

groundwater levels are negligible.

Figure 2. Selected observation wells in the upper Deschutes Basin, central Oregon, contrasting 

water-level trends in and near the Cascade Range (wells A and B) with trends in the basin interior

(wells C and D). See figure 4 for location of observation wells. 

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Water levels in wells C and D, in feet below land surface

Water levels in wells A and B, in feet below land surface

Year

Well A (15S/10E-08ACD)

Well B (15S/10E-02CDA)

Well C (15S/13E-18ADD1) Well D (15S/13E-21ADB1)
Methods 5

Figure 3. Annual mean discharge of Fall River in the upper Deschutes Basin, central Oregon 

(USGS gage 14057500); annual (water-year) precipitation at Crater Lake, Oregon; and cumulative 

departure from average precipitation at Crater Lake. Location of streamflow gaging station is 

shown in figure 1.

tac13-0819_fig03

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

-50

50

100

150

200

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Discharge, in cubic feet per second

Precipitation, in inches

Year

Annual mean discharge of Fall River

Annual precipitation at Crater Lake

Cumulative departure from average precipitation at Crater Lake

EXPLANATION

Purpose and Scope

This study was designed to investigate the spatial 

distribution and causes of measured water-level declines 

in the upper Deschutes Basin. An important goal was to 

determine the relative influence of the major probable causes: 

(1) climate-driven decreases in groundwater recharge, 

(2) increased groundwater pumping, and (3) decreased 

artificial recharge as a result of lining and piping of irrigation 

canals. The study relied largely on historical data and data 

collected by OWRD between 1997 and 2008 (Oregon Water 

Resources Department, 2013). As part of the study, some 

wells measured until 1997 were revisited and measured. 

No new monitoring efforts have been started specifically as 

part of this study. The investigation used the groundwater 

model developed for the upper Deschutes Basin in the 1990s 

by Gannett and Lite (2004). Input data files were created to 

allow simulation of conditions up to 2008, but the model was 

otherwise unchanged.

Methods

This study used the existing USGS upper Deschutes 

Basin groundwater model (Gannett and Lite, 2004) to evaluate 

water-level changes between 1997 and 2008. This evaluation 

entailed compiling data on water-level changes as well 

as extending model input files to cover the time period of 

interest.

The upper Deschutes Basin groundwater model 

encompasses approximately 4,000 mi2 with a grid composed 

of 127 rows, 87 columns, and 8 layers with variable cell 

dimensions. The model was developed using the USGS 

modular groundwater modeling code MODFLOW. Model 

boundary conditions include head-dependent flow to and from 

streams and head-dependent evapotranspiration. In addition, 

recharge, pumping, and boundary fluxes from adjacent basins 

are specified for each stress period. The model was originally 

calibrated to transient conditions from 1978 through 1997 

(referred to as the “original” model period) using semiannual 
6 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

stress periods. The model was not recalibrated for this study. 

The only changes were the extension of model input files for 

boundary stresses (recharge, pumping, and evapotranspiration) 

to cover the period from 1997 through 2008 (referred to as the 

extended model period). To make the model more compatible 

with newer stress packages, the model was converted from 

MODFLOW-96 to MODFLOW-2000.

Documenting Water-Level Changes

The extent and magnitude of water-level changes in the 

upper Deschutes Basin since 1997 was evaluated by compiling 

water-level data collected by OWRD between 1997 and 2008. 

In addition, selected wells that were monitored up to 1997 

were revisited and measured. Hydrographs showing changes 

in water levels with time were updated, and changes in water 

levels over certain time intervals were plotted on maps. Data 

were insufficient to constrain the geographic extent of waterlevel changes, particularly those changes south of Redmond 

and near Bend. Consequently, it was not feasible to create 

contour maps showing water-level changes.

Modification of Model Input Files

The existing groundwater model of Gannett and Lite 

(2004) was used to evaluate the relative influence of factors 

contributing to water-level changes observed since the 

mid-1990s. The original model calibration and associated 

input files were for 1978 through 1997. For this study, 

model input files for recharge, groundwater pumping, and 

evapotranspiration were updated to include the period from 

1997 through 2008.

Recharge from precipitation, which is affected by climate 

trends, was calculated for the original model and updated 

using a daily energy and moisture balance model known as 

the Deep Percolation Model (DPM) (Bauer and Vaccaro, 

1987; Vaccaro, 2007). The DPM calculates recharge using 

climate observation data (temperature, precipitation, and solar 

radiation) from weather stations in the basin along with data 

describing various landscape characteristics. The DPM was 

used to estimate recharge for the original modeling period 

by Boyd (1996). To create recharge datasets through 2008, 

Boyd’s recharge model was updated by extending the climate 

observation data. Other landscape factors were not changed.

Model input files describing the rate and distribution 

of groundwater pumping for the original model period were 

updated to cover the extended model period. Estimates of 

public-supply pumping in the original model were based on 

data from public water providers in the basin. Public-supply 

pumping data for the extended model period were obtained 

directly from water providers as well as water-use reporting 

records from OWRD. The largest public water suppliers 

during both the original and extended model periods include 

the cities of Bend and Redmond, and Avion Water Company.

Groundwater pumping for irrigation was estimated for the 

original model period (1978–97) using satellite imagery and 

water-rights mapping from 1994. Satellite images were used 

to identify crop types growing in areas mapped as irrigated 

with groundwater. Pumpage estimates were then developed 

based on water needs of the particular crop types and irrigation 

efficiency values. Pumping was distributed in the model using 

surveyed well locations and well log information. The 1994 

base-period estimates were distributed to other years using 

water right priority dates.

Irrigation pumping volumes for the extended model 

period were developed using water rights data and well log 

information from OWRD. Consumptive use estimates were 

based on historical cropping patterns and crop data from the 

National Agricultural Statistics Service (2007).

Rates of recharge from canal leakage for the original 

model calibration period were estimated based on diversion 

and delivery data, seepage and ponding tests, and information 

on canal-bed geology and geometry (Gannett and others, 

2001). Decreases in recharge from canal leakage that occurred 

during the extended model period were calculated based on a 

compilation of estimated decreases in canal leakage for pipe, 

lined, or abandoned canals provided by OWRD (Jonathan La 

Marche, written commun., 2009). The OWRD compilation 

included a geographic information system (GIS) map that 

showed the affected sections of canal, and the year that canal 

modification construction began and ended. For this study, 

decreases in canal leakage were assumed to commence 

the year canal modifications were completed. Decreases in 

canal leakage were provided for 225 separate canal or lateral 

reaches. These decreases in leakage were summed for each 

model grid cell for the appropriate years, and then subtracted 

from the leakage estimates used during the original model 

period.

Estimates of groundwater recharge from on-farm losses 

of irrigation water for the original model period were based 

on literature values coupled with knowledge of irrigation 

application methods in various areas (Gannett and others, 

2001). On-farm loss refers to applied irrigation water that 

percolates beneath the rooting depth of plants that becomes 

groundwater recharge. On-farm losses were calculated as the 

difference between applied irrigation water (after factoring in 

irrigation efficiency) and consumptive use of the associated 

crops. On-farm losses were decreased in the extended model 

period based on annual (2001–08) estimates provided by 

OWRD of land area not irrigated to decrease surface-water 

diversions (Kyle Gorman, OWRD, written commun., 2009). 

In most cases, decreases in on-farm losses were distributed 

uniformly over the associated irrigation district because 

there was no readily available information about specific 

locations. Decreases in on-farm losses in Central Oregon 

Irrigation District area were focused around Redmond, per 

information from OWRD. Decreases in recharge from on-farm 

losses during the extended model period were calculated by 

dividing the non-irrigated acreage by the total district acreage, 

and decreasing the historical on-farm loss recharge by that 

proportion.
Changes in Hydrologic Conditions 7

Groundwater Flow Simulation Analysis

To validate the ability of the model as originally 

calibrated to simulate conditions from 1997 to 2008, the model 

was run with all appropriate stresses updated (as described in 

section, “Modification of Model Input Files”) and simulated 

heads and flows were compared to measured equivalents 

during that period. The model fit to measured heads and flows 

during the extended model period was similar to the fit during 

the original model period, and the model was deemed suitable 

for examining conditions during the extended model period. 

To evaluate the relative contributions of climate variations, 

groundwater pumping, and piping and lining of irrigation 

canals to measured water-level changes, the model was run 

with all input files updated to 2008 (the base run), and then 

the model was run holding pumping and/or canal recharge 

rates at 1994 levels. We chose 1994 as the departure point 

for comparison because it was near the low point of the last 

drought cycle in the original model period. It is also the year 

where base estimates for pumping and canal leakage were 

determined for the original model period. The influence of 

individual stresses (climate variations, increased groundwater 

pumping, and decreased recharge due to canal lining) were 

evaluated by comparing simulation results of the base run with 

results from runs with individual stresses held at 1994 levels.

Changes in Hydrologic Conditions

Groundwater-Level Changes

Groundwater-level changes were evaluated using 

periodic (generally quarterly) measurements made by OWRD 

in approximately 25 wells from the mid-1990s through 2008. 

The locations of selected observation wells are shown in 

figure 4. Water levels in five of the monitored wells are of no 

value in evaluating climate or pumping effects because they 

are influenced primarily by the stages of nearby streams or 

lakes that are artificially manipulated. Water levels in most of 

the remaining wells reflect varying influences of pumping and 

climate variations.

Water-level changes that occurred over three time periods 

(1996–2000, 2000–04, and 2004–08) throughout the upper 

Deschutes Basin are shown in figure 5. The time periods 

approximately correspond to predominantly wet or dry 

periods. Water levels do not change uniformly over the entire 

basin (fig. 5), and different areas show different magnitudes 

and directions of water-level change each time period. The 

central part of the upper Deschutes Basin, specifically the area 

from Cline Buttes east to the community of Powell Butte, 

experienced consistent water-level declines between 1996 and 

2008. Well D in figure 2 is an example of a well exhibiting a 

consistent water-level decline.

Wells in and adjacent to the Cascade Range showed 

water-level fluctuations generally following climate variations 

(fig. 2, well A). Water levels generally rose during 1996–2000 

in response to wet conditions, with many wells showing rises 

of more than 10 ft. During the dry period from 2000 through 

2004, water levels in the Cascade Range declined by amounts 

similar to the earlier water-level rise. Between 2004 and 2008, 

water levels showed moderate rises in those wells that were 

closest to the Cascades and not influenced by pumping or 

stream stage. 

Wells in the La Pine subbasin south of Bend also tend to 

respond to climate cycles, and show no evidence of discernible 

pumping-related trends due to distance from large pumping 

centers. During the three climate periods shown in figure 5, 

shallow wells in the La Pine subbasin exhibited decadal 

patterns of fluctuation similar to those in the Cascades. 

Decadal climate fluctuations are relatively small and are of 

similar magnitude to seasonal variations (fig. 6). The more 

subdued fluctuations likely are a reflection of the low overall 

recharge rates in the area and distance from the Cascade 

Range.

Groundwater levels appear to have declined almost 

continuously in the area extending from Cline Buttes east 

to Powell Buttes, and from Cline Buttes north toward 

Lower Bridge. As shown by representative hydrographs 

(figs. 7 and 8), water-level trends in this area are characterized 

by subtle climate fluctuations superimposed on a dominant 

post-1990 downward trend. The climate influences are 

insufficient to overcome the downward trend, and the wet 

conditions in 1996 to 2000 that resulted in substantial waterlevel rises in wells to the west only resulted in a lessening of 

the decline rate in wells in this area.

Wells that have been monitored in the northernmost 

part of the upper Deschutes Basin, northeast of the Crooked 

River in Crook and Jefferson Counties, generally show 

moderate water-level fluctuations that tend to follow climate 

fluctuations. As recently as the late 1990s, water levels were 

still rising in some wells in Jefferson County, presumably in 

response to construction of Round Butte Dam and the creation 

of Lake Billy Chinook (Gannett and others, 2001).

The continuous water-level declines in parts of the upper 

Deschutes Basin may not solely be the result of pumping 

stresses. The declines are likely influenced by the general 

drying trend in the basin over the past several decades. It 

is possible that the effects of decadal wet and dry cycles 

are largely diffused and attenuated due to distance from the 

Cascade Range (the principal recharge area) and that the wells 

are responding to the longer term climate pattern.
8 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

tac13-0819_fig04

Cline

Buttes

Powell 

Butte

Powell

Buttes

La Pine Subbasin

Bend

Madras

Sisters

Redmond

La Pine

Prineville

Camp 

Sherman

Lower 

Bridge

BLUE MOUNTAINS

WHEELER

JEFFERSON

CROOK

LINN

LANE

DESCHUTES

MARION

KLAMATH

DOUGLAS

HIGH LAVA PLAINS

WASCO

LAKE

SISTERS

FAULT ZONE

11S/14E-18DAD

13S/14E-33DAD

14S/09E-08ABA 14S/16E-32CBA

Base map modified from U.S. Geological Survey and other digital data sources, various scales. 

Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 10; 

North American Datum of 1927

15S/10E-02CDA

15S/10E-08ACD

15S/12E-14CDD

15S/14E-23CAD

21S/11E-19CCC

23S/09E-36BBC

23S/10E-36DDC

09S/14E-20DDA1

11S/13E-24BCD1

13S/09E-03AAC2

14S/11E-01DDD1

15S/10E-36AAD2 15S/13E-21ADB1

20S/10E-01DCA1

22S/10E-10DDD1

14S/12E-02CCC

15S/15E-30AAD

15S/13E-18ADD1

C

A

S

C

A

D E

R

A

N

G

E

122° 121°30' 121° 120°30'

44°30'

44°

43°30'

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 MILES

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 KILOMETERS

T.

10

S.

R. 10 E. R. 20 E.

T.

20

S.

EXPLANATION

Study area

Observation well 

and No.

09S/14E-20DDA1

Figure 4. Locations of selected observation wells in the upper Deschutes Basin, central Oregon.
Changes in Hydrologic Conditions 9

tac13-0819_fig05a

Cline

Buttes

Powell 

Butte

Powell

Buttes

La Pine Subbasin

SISTERS

FAULT ZONE

Bend

Madras

Sisters

Redmond

La Pine

Prineville

Camp 

Sherman

Lower 

Bridge

BLUE MOUNTAINS

WHEELER

JEFFERSON

CROOK

LINN

LANE

DESCHUTES

MARION

KLAMATH

DOUGLAS

HIGH LAVA PLAINS

WASCO

LAKE

Base map modified from U.S. Geological Survey and other digital data sources, various scales. 

Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 10; 

North American Datum of 1927

C

A

S

C

A

D E

R

A

N

G

E

122° 121°30' 121° 120°30'

44°30'

44°

43°30'

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 MILES

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 KILOMETERS

T.

10

S.

R. 10 E. R. 20 E.

T.

20

S.

EXPLANATION

Water-level change, 1996–2000, 

in feet. Numbers correspond to 

measured water-level changes 

at well locations.

-16.00 to -10.00

-9.99 to -5.00

-4.99 to -1.00

-0.99 to 0.00

0.01 to 1.00

1.01 to 5.00

5.01 to 10.00

10.01 to 18.79

Study area

A.

-2

18

-16

2.8

-1.2

2.12

1.33

0.89

3.62

0.98

-2.2

7.83

4.15 1.96

11.62 -0.65 13.22

-2.02

-1.65

18.79

-0.8

Figure 5. Changes in measured springtime high-water levels in selected observation wells in the upper Deschutes Basin, central 

Oregon. (A), 1996–2000; (B), 2000–04; (C), 2004–08.
10 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

tac13-0819_fig05b

Cline

Buttes

Powell 

Butte

Powell

Buttes

La Pine Subbasin

SISTERS

FAULT ZONE

Bend

Madras

Sisters

Redmond

La Pine

Prineville

Camp 

Sherman

Lower 

Bridge

BLUE MOUNTAINS

WHEELER

JEFFERSON

CROOK

LINN

LANE

DESCHUTES

MARION

KLAMATH

DOUGLAS

HIGH LAVA PLAINS

WASCO

LAKE

Base map modified from U.S. Geological Survey and other digital data sources, various scales. 

Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 10; 

North American Datum of 1927

C

A

S

C

A

D E

R

A

N

G

E

122° 121°30' 121° 120°30'

44°30'

44°

43°30'

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 MILES

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 KILOMETERS

T.

10

S.

R. 10 E. R. 20 E.

T.

20

S.

EXPLANATION

Water-level change, 2000–04, 

in feet. Numbers correspond to 

measured water-level changes 

at well locations.

-28.58 to -16.00

-15.99 to -10.00

-9.99 to -5.00

-4.99 to -3.00

-2.99 to -1.28

-1.27 to 0.00

0.01 to 1.00

1.01 to 2.67

Study area

B.

2.67

-2.2

-0.8

-3.7

-1.28

-1.29

-1.82

-2.56

-3.09

-3.34

-2.11

-9.18

-2.81 -0.73

-13.55

-11.64

-15.88 -28.58

-12.97

Figure 5.—Continued
Changes in Hydrologic Conditions 11

tac13-0819_fig05c

Cline

Buttes

Powell 

Butte

Powell

Buttes

La Pine Subbasin

SISTERS

FAULT ZONE

Bend

Madras

Sisters

Redmond

La Pine

Prineville

Camp 

Sherman

Lower 

Bridge

BLUE MOUNTAINS

WHEELER

JEFFERSON

CROOK

LINN

LANE

DESCHUTES

MARION

KLAMATH

DOUGLAS

HIGH LAVA PLAINS

WASCO

LAKE

Base map modified from U.S. Geological Survey and other digital data sources, various scales. 

Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 10; 

North American Datum of 1927

C

A

S

C

A

D E

R

A

N

G

E

122° 121°30' 121° 120°30'

44°30'

44°

43°30'

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 MILES

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 KILOMETERS

T.

10

S.

R. 10 E. R. 20 E.

T.

20

S.

EXPLANATION

Water-level change, 2004–08, 

in feet. Numbers correspond to 

measured water-level changes 

at well locations.

-12.29 to -10.00

-9.99 to -5.00

-4.99 to -3.00

-2.99 to -1.00

-0.99 to 0.00

0.01 to 1.00

1.01 to 4.72

Study area

4.72 2.45

1.22

0.07

0.33 -0.1

0.04 -1.5

-0.45

-2.11

-2.59

-0.63

-2.36

-3.44

-2.91

-4.66

-6.75

-6.34

-12.29

C.

Figure 5.—Continued
12 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

Figure 6. Water-level measurements in observation well 21S/11E-19CCC in the La Pine 

subbasin, central Oregon, showing seasonal variations as well as the effects of decadal 

climate fluctuations. Location of observation well is shown in figure 4.

Figure 7. Water-level measurements in observation well 15S/13E-18ADD1 near Redmond, 

Oregon, showing continuous water-level declines since the early 1990s. Location of 

observation well is shown in figure 4.

Figure 8. Water-level measurements in observation well 14S/12E-02CCC near Lower 

Bridge, northeast of Sisters, Oregon, showing continuous water-level declines since the 

early 1990s. Location of observation well is shown in figure 4.

tac13-0819_fig06

4,176

4,180

4,184

4,188

4,192

4,196

4,200

4,204

4,208

4,212

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Water-level elevation, in feet

2,710

2,715

2,720

2,725

2,730

2,735

2,740

2,745

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Water-level elevation, in feet

2,561

2,562

2,563

2,564

2,565

2,566

2,567

2,568

2,569

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Water-level elevation, in feet
Changes in Hydrologic Conditions 13

Changes in Groundwater Recharge from 

Precipitation

Deep percolation model results show that groundwater 

recharge in the upper Deschutes Basin has decreased in recent 

decades due to the drying climate trend (fig. 9). Average 

annual recharge rates for 1979–88, 1989–98, and 1999–2008, 

were 3.2, 2.8, and 2.4 million acre-ft/yr, respectively. 

Groundwater recharge decreased about 25 percent between 

the 1979–88 and 1999–2008 periods, at a long-term average 

rate of about 33,500 acre-ft/yr. The decrease in groundwater 

recharge is manifested as a decrease in discharge of most 

spring-fed streams. For example, mean annual discharge of 

Fall River, a spring-fed stream (fig. 3), has decreased from 

135 ft3/s (1978–88) to 118 ft3/s (1999–2008), a decrease of 

about 13 percent. Decreases in mean annual discharge of Fall 

River between the 1970s (150 ft3/s) and 2000s (110 ft3/s) is 

even larger, approaching 27 percent. Decreases in recharge 

and discharge in spring-fed streams are consistent with 

decreased discharge of groundwater-dominated streams over 

the past 50 years elsewhere in the Cascade Range documented 

by Mayer and Naman (2011).

Decreases in Recharge from Lining and Piping 

Irrigation Canals

Information from OWRD (J.L. La Marche, written 

commun., 2009) indicates there was substantial lining and 

piping of irrigation canals in the upper Deschutes Basin 

between 1994 and 2008. By 2008, canal leakage was reduced 

by approximately 58,000 acre-ft/yr, a decrease of 16 percent 

compared to the 356,600 acre-ft/yr in 1994 as estimated 

by Gannett and others (2001). The decrease in annual 

groundwater recharge as a result of lining and piping of 

irrigation canals between 1994 and 2008 is shown in figure 10. 

Decreases in Recharge from On-Farm Losses

The OWRD provided a compilation of acreage for which 

surface-water rights were not exercised to reduce diversions 

and allow water to remain instream. Reductions in irrigated 

land area result in decreases in recharge from on-farm losses. 

Acreage amounts were provided for each irrigation district, 

as well as non-district areas from 2001 to 2008. The area 

of idled land varied year to year, generally increasing from 

2001 to 2008 with annual totals ranging from about 2,000 

to 8,000 acres (J.L. La Marche, OWRD, written commun., 

2012). The proportion from non-district areas averaged about 

12 percent of the total. Decreases in groundwater recharge 

resulting from idling land from 2001 to 2008 ranged from 

approximately 250 to 1,000 acre-feet/yr. This is a small 

fraction of the approximately 49,000 acre-ft of annual recharge 

from on-farm losses (Gannett and others, 2001).

0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

Groundwater recharge, in million acre feet per year

Year

Figure 9. Estimated total annual groundwater recharge in the upper Deschutes Basin, central Oregon, 

1978–2008. Line shows linear trend with a slope of about 33,500 acre-ft/yr.
14 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

Figure 10. Spatial distribution and magnitude of estimated decreases in annual canal leakage due to lining or piping of irrigation 

canals between 1994 and 2008 in the upper Deschutes Basin, central Oregon. Data from the Oregon Water Resources Department.

tac13-0819_fig10

Cline

Buttes

Powell

Buttes

Powell 

Butte

La Pine Subbasin

Bend

Madras

Sisters

Redmond

La Pine

Prineville

Camp 

Sherman

Lower 

Bridge

BLUE MOUNTAINS

WHEELER

JEFFERSON

CROOK

LINN

LANE

DESCHUTES

MARION

KLAMATH

DOUGLAS

HIGH LAVA PLAINS

WASCO

LAKE

SISTERS

FAULT ZONE

Base map modified from U.S. Geological Survey and other digital data sources, various scales. 

Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 10; 

North American Datum of 1927

C

A

S

C

A

D E

R

A

N

G

E

122° 121°30' 121° 120°30'

44°30'

44°

43°30'

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 MILES

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 KILOMETERS

T.

10

S.

R. 10 E. R. 20 E.

T.

20

S.

EXPLANATION

Estimated decreases in annual canal 

leakage due to canal lining during 

1994–2008, in acre-feet per year for 

each shaded canal segment

1 to 100

101 to 200

201 to 500

501 to 1,000

1,001 to 5,000

5,001 to 10,000

10,001 to 16,983

Study area
Changes in Hydrologic Conditions 15

Increases in Pumping

Pumping volumes for municipal and irrigation uses 

increased about 68 percent between 1994 and 2008. Pumping 

for irrigation increased from about 17,500 to about 25,000 

acre-ft/yr (fig. 11). The different methods of estimating 

pumpage used for the original model period and the extended 

model period resulted in slightly different estimates for 1994 

(15,000 and 17,500 acre-ft, respectively). For base case 

simulations used in this analysis, the new estimates were used 

from 1994 through 2008.

Public-supply pumping increased from 13,400 acre-ft/ yr 

in 1994 to close to 26,800 acre-ft/yr in 2007 (fig. 12). 

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

Annual irrigation pumping, in acre-feet

Figure 11. Estimated annual groundwater pumping for irrigation in the upper Deschutes Basin, 

central Oregon, 1978–2008.

Reported public-supply pumping decreased to 23,400 in 

2008, probably due to normal year-to-year variations in use. 

Increases in pumping by the Cities of Bend and Redmond, as 

well as the Avion Water Company, accounted for most of the 

increase in public-supply use.

Although groundwater pumping has increased, the 

general distribution is unchanged (fig. 13), as it largely 

follows established land-use patterns. Public-supply pumping 

continues to be concentrated in the areas of Bend and 

Redmond, while irrigation pumping continues to dominate 

near Sisters, the Lower Bridge area, and north of Powell 

Buttes.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

Annual public-supply pumping, in acre-feet

Figure 12. Estimated annual public-supply pumping in the upper Deschutes Basin, central 

Oregon,1978–2008.
16 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

Figure 13. Distribution of groundwater pumping in the upper Deschutes Basin, central Oregon. (A), 1994; (B), 2008; (C), change 

from 1994 to 2008 (negative values indicate decreases).

tac13-0819_fig13a

Cline

Buttes

Powell

Buttes

Powell 

Butte

La Pine Subbasin

Round

Butte

Dam

Newberry Volcano

Black

Butte

McKinney

Butte

Bend

Madras

Sisters

Redmond

La Pine

Prineville

Camp 

Sherman Lower 

Bridge

BLUE MOUNTAINS

WHEELER

JEFFERSON

CROOK

LINN

LANE

DESCHUTES

MARION

KLAMATH

DOUGLAS

HIGH LAVA PLAINS

WASCO

LAKE

SISTERS

FAULT ZONE

Base map modified from U.S. Geological Survey and other digital data sources, various scales. 

Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 10; 

North American Datum of 1927

C

A

S

C

A

D E

R

A

N

G

E

122° 121°30' 121° 120°30'

44°30'

44°

43°30'

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 MILES

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 KILOMETERS

T.

10

S.

R. 10 E. R. 20 E.

T.

20

S.

EXPLANATION

Annual pumping in 1994, in acre-feet

0-25

26-50

51-100

101-200

201-500

501-1,000

1,001-2,000

2,001-6,000

Study area

A.
Changes in Hydrologic Conditions 17

tac13-0819_fig13b

Cline

Buttes

Powell

Buttes

Powell 

Butte

La Pine Subbasin

Round

Butte

Dam

Newberry Volcano

Black

Butte

McKinney

Butte

Bend

Madras

Sisters

Redmond

La Pine

Prineville

Camp 

Sherman

Lower 

Bridge

BLUE MOUNTAINS

WHEELER

JEFFERSON

CROOK

LINN

LANE

DESCHUTES

MARION

KLAMATH

DOUGLAS

HIGH LAVA PLAINS

WASCO

LAKE

SISTERS

FAULT ZONE

Base map modified from U.S. Geological Survey and other digital data sources, various scales. 

Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 10; 

North American Datum of 1927

C

A

S

C

A

D E

R

A

N

G

E

122° 121°30' 121° 120°30'

44°30'

44°

43°30'

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 MILES

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 KILOMETERS

T.

10

S.

R. 10 E. R. 20 E.

T.

20

S.

EXPLANATION

Annual pumping in 2008, in acre-feet

0-25

26-50

51-100

101-200

201-500

501-1,000

1,001-2,000

2,001-6,000

Study area

B.

Figure 13.—Continued
18 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

tac13-0819_fig13c

Cline

Buttes

Powell

Buttes

Powell 

Butte

La Pine Subbasin

Round

Butte

Dam

Newberry Volcano

Black

Butte

McKinney

Butte

Bend

Madras

Sisters

Redmond

La Pine

Prineville

Camp 

Sherman

Lower 

Bridge

BLUE MOUNTAINS

WHEELER

JEFFERSON

CROOK

LINN

LANE

DESCHUTES

MARION

KLAMATH

DOUGLAS

HIGH LAVA PLAINS

WASCO

LAKE

SISTERS

FAULT ZONE

Base map modified from U.S. Geological Survey and other digital data sources, various scales. 

Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 10; 

North American Datum of 1927

C

A

S

C

A

D E

R

A

N

G

E

122° 121°30' 121° 120°30'

44°30'

44°

43°30'

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 MILES

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 KILOMETERS

T.

10

S.

R. 10 E. R. 20 E.

T.

20

S.

Changes in annual pumping, 

1994–2008, in acre-feet. 

Negative values indicate 

decreases in pumping

EXPLANATION

-323 to -250

-249 to -100

-99 to 0

1 to 100

101 to 250

251 to 1,000

1,001 to 2,000

2,001 to 5,332

Study area

C.

Figure 13.—Continued
Simulation of 1997–2008 Groundwater Conditions 19

Simulation of 1997–2008 Groundwater 

Conditions

The original model calibration period, which spans 

the period from 1978 to 1997, included both wet and dry 

climatic cycles. The varying conditions were reflected in the 

hydrologic measurements used to calibrate the model. The 

original model fit was evaluated by comparing measured 

heads and discharges to their simulated equivalents (Gannett 

and Lite, 2004). Fitted error statistics (Hill and Tiedeman, 

2007) indicate that 68 percent of simulated head values are 

within about 76 ft of the measured values, and 95 percent 

of simulated head values are within 152 ft of the measured 

values. This fit is considered good, given that measured heads 

vary more than 4,500 ft over the 4,000 mi2 model domain. 

Although the absolute values of measured and simulated 

heads commonly vary tens of feet, water-level fluctuations, or 

changes, match much more closely. Gannett and Lite (2004) 

show that the model does a good job of capturing the temporal 

variation in hydraulic heads and groundwater discharge caused 

by climate and other external stresses.

Model runs incorporating the extended model period 

show that the model does a good job of simulating measured 

fluctuations in hydraulic heads and groundwater discharge 

through 2008. Figure 14 shows simulated groundwater 

discharge to Fall River and Odell Creek along with measured 

streamflow. Fall River is entirely spring-fed, so the streamflow 

is directly comparable to the simulated groundwater discharge. 

Temporal variations in simulated groundwater discharge 

to Fall River match those of the measured streamflow 

reasonably well for the original and extended model periods, 

although absolute discharge volumes are high by 50–75 ft3/s 

(fig. 14A). Odell Creek is not entirely groundwater fed, and the 

streamflow hydrograph shows peaks resulting from storms and 

snowmelt events superimposed on a relatively robust baseflow 

of about 50–100 ft3/s. Comparison of simulated groundwater 

discharge and measured streamflow at Odell Creek shows that 

the model does a good job simulating the baseflow component 

of flow in both terms of temporal variations and magnitude 

through the original and extended model periods.

The model did a generally good job of simulating waterlevel changes during the original calibration period. In the 

central part of the upper Deschutes Basin where water-level 

declines are largest, the simulated water-level changes match 

observations quite well, although there is an offset in absolute 

head values of about 25 ft (fig. 15). Comparison of simulated 

and measured water-level changes from 1997 to 2008 

indicates that the model also performs well in the extended 

period. Because the focus of this study is to understand the 

relative magnitude of water-level changes attributable to 

various stresses, it is most important that the model do an 

adequate job of simulating the measured temporal variations, 

and matching absolute heads is less important. Because the 

model matches measured temporal variations in water levels 

during the original and extended model periods reasonably 

well, particularly in the central part of the upper Deschutes 

Basin, it is considered an appropriate tool for the purposes of 

this study.

Relative Effects of Climate, Pumping, and 

Canal Lining

The regional groundwater model was used to determine 

the relative influence of climate variations, decreased canal 

leakage, and increased pumping on measured water-level 

changes. The effects of each of these stresses were isolated 

by running three simulations, each one including a different 

combination of the stresses. In the first simulation, climate 

variations, increased pumping, and decreased canal leakage 

up to 2008 were all included. This simulation, referred to 

as the base run, reflects actual conditions and was used to 

compare simulated and measured water levels. For the second 

simulation, the recent increase in groundwater pumping was 

removed by holding post-1994 pumping rates at the 1994 

level. Results of this model run are compared to the base run 

to evaluate the relative influence of the increase in pumping. 

For the third simulation, both pumping and canal-leakage 

rates were held constant after 1994. This shows the influence 

of climate variations alone, and also allows evaluation of the 

relative influence of decreased canal leakage. The effects of 

changes in on-farm losses were sufficiently small that they are 

not considered in the analysis (they were, however, simulated 

in all model runs). The simulated water-level changes were 

evaluated at locations where water levels have been monitored 

since the mid-1990s (fig. 5).

Water-level changes in some parts of the upper Deschutes 

Basin, such as the La Pine subbasin and upland areas, are 

due to climate influences and are largely unaffected by 

pumping and canal lining. Simulated water levels in the more 

developed central part of the upper Deschutes Basin (the area 

encompassing Sisters, Bend, Redmond, and Powell Butte) 

show the effects of increased pumping and decreased recharge 

due to canal lining in addition to climate variations.
20 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

Figure 15. Simulated and measured head elevation in observation well 15S/13E-18ADD1 near Redmond, 

Oregon. Location of observation well is shown in figure 4.

2,710

2,715

2,720

2,725

2,730

2,735

2,740

2,745

2,685

2,690

2,695

2,700

2,705

2,710

2,715

2,720

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Simulated head elevation, in feet

Measured head elevation, in feet

Simulated - Original model period

Simulated - Extended model period

Measured - Original model period

Measured - Extended model period

EXPLANATION

tac13-0819_fig14ab

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Cubic feet per second

Simulated groundwater discharge

Measured monthly mean streamflow

EXPLANATION

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

B.

A.

Figure 14. Measured streamflow and simulated groundwater discharge to A, Fall River (USGS gage 14057500) 

and B, Odell Creek (USGS gage 14055600), upper Deschutes Basin, central Oregon. Locations of streamflowgaging stations are shown in figure 1.
Simulation of 1997–2008 Groundwater Conditions 21

La Pine Subbasin and Cascade Range

 The effects of increased pumping and decreased canal 

leakage range from small to undetectable in the La Pine 

subbasin and along the western margin of the upper Deschutes 

Basin in and near the Cascade Range. In the La Pine subbasin, 

the effects of decreased canal leakage are too small to be 

seen on graphs comparing the relative influence of stresses 

and are not included in the associated figures. The effects of 

pumping increases since 1994 cannot be seen in shallow parts 

of the system in the La Pine subbasin, probably due to the 

relatively small increases in local pumping (fig. 16). In deep 

wells, post-1994 pumping increases account for about 0.5 ft 

of the roughly 7-ft net decline in water levels measured since 

the mid-1990s (fig. 17). The pumping influence seen in deep 

zones in the La Pine subbasin may be diminished in shallower 

depths because of the presence of a thick sequence of saturated 

fine-grained deposits in the area.

Water levels in the few monitoring wells in and adjacent 

to the Cascade Range also appear to be minimally affected by 

post-1994 canal lining and increases in pumping. Pumping 

influences cannot be discerned on a graph showing simulated 

water levels in a shallow well in the Camp Sherman area 

(fig. 18), as the plots with and without post-1994 pumping 

essentially overlie one another. A post-1994 water-level 

decline of several tenths of a foot due to pumping was 

simulated in a well south of Black Butte (fig. 19). Canal lining 

influences are not discernible on simulated hydrographs for 

either well monitored in the Cascade Range.

Figure 16. Simulated head elevations in observation well 21S/11E-19CCC, a 100-foot deep well in the 

La Pine subbasin, central Oregon. Lines showing simulated head elevations with and without post-1994 

pumping increases are coincident on the graph, indicating very limited impact from post-1994 pumping 

increases. Effects of post-1994 canal lining are too small to show at the scale of this graph. Location of 

observation well is shown in figure 4. 

4,210

4,214

4,218

4,222

4,226

4,230

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Simulated head elevation, in feet

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 increases in pumping

Simulation with climate variations and no post-1994 increases in pumping

EXPLANATION
22 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

Figure 17. Simulated head elevations in observation well 22S/10E-10DDD01, a 1,458-foot deep 

well near La Pine, central Oregon. Comparison of simulated heads with and without the post-1994 

groundwater pumping increases indicates that post-1994 growth in pumping accounts for about 0.5 

foot of water-level decline as of 2008. Effects of post-1994 canal lining are too small to show at the 

scale of this graph. Location of observation well is shown in figure 4.

Figure 18. Simulated head elevations in observation well 13S/09E-03AAC02 near Camp Sherman, 

Oregon. Lines showing simulated heads with and without post-1994 groundwater pumping increases 

cannot be discriminated on the graph, indicating very limited impact from post-1994 pumping 

increases. Effects of post-1994 canal lining are too small to show at the scale of this graph. Location 

of observation well is shown in figure 4.

2,936

2,937

2,938

2,939

2,940

2,941

2,942

2,943

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Simulated head elevation, in feet

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 increases in pumping

Simulation with climate variations and no post-1994 increases in pumping

EXPLANATION

Year

tac13-0819_fig17

Year

4,280

4,285

4,290

4,295

4,300

4,305

4,310

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Simulated head elevation, in feet

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 increases in pumping

Simulation with climate variations and no post-1994 increases in pumping

EXPLANATION
Simulation of 1997–2008 Groundwater Conditions 23

tac13-0819_fig19

3,290

3,300

3,310

3,320

3,330

3,340

3,350

3,360

3,370

3,380

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Simulated head elevation, in feet

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 increases in pumping

Simulation with climate variations and no post-1994 increases in pumping

EXPLANATION

Year

Figure 19. Simulated head elevations in observation well 14S/09E-08ABA south of Black Butte, 

Oregon. Comparison of simulated heads with and without post-1994 groundwater pumping increases 

indicates that post-1994 growth in pumping accounts for water-level declines of several tenths of 

a foot. Effects of post-1994 canal lining are too small to show at the scale of this graph. Location of 

observation well is shown in figure 4.

Sisters Area

Water-level trends in the Sisters area differ on either 

side of McKinney Butte. McKinney Butte lies along the 

Sisters fault zone, which demarks a transition zone east of 

which water-level fluctuations observed in the Cascade Range 

become diffused and attenuated. West of the McKinney Butte, 

measured water levels have risen about 10 ft since 2005 in a 

manner similar to that observed in the Cascade Range. Such a 

post-2005 rise in water levels generally is not observed east of 

McKinney Butte.

Simulations show that about 80 percent of the roughly 

22-foot water-level declines in the western part of the Sisters 

area since the peak of the most recent wet period (about 2000) 

are due to climate, and that pumping and canal lining are 

responsible for approximately 13 and 7 percent of declines, 

respectively (fig. 20). Of the 20- to 25-ft decline in water 

levels observed just east of the Sisters area since 2000, about 

65–70 percent can be attributed to climate. The remaining 

30–35 percent (about 6–8 ft) can be attributed to increased 

pumping and canal lining in nearly equal proportions (fig. 21).

Lower Bridge Area

Water levels in the two wells monitored in the Lower 

Bridge area northwest of Sisters have declined about 5–6 ft 

since the mid-1990s (figs. 22 and 23). The decline has been 

more or less continuous except during the wet period between 

the mid-1990s and 2000, a period during which water levels 

rose very slightly (fig. 22), or the decline rate flattened out 

(fig. 23). The general lack of a significant water-level rise in 

the Lower Bridge area in response to wet conditions during 

the late 1990s is typical of wells in the central part of the 

upper Deschutes Basin around Redmond. It is probable 

that recharge pulse during this relatively short wet period 

was largely attenuated by diffusion as it moved west from 

the Cascade Range and was insufficient to overcome the 

longer term drying trend apparent in the central part of the 

basin. Simulations in the Lower Bridge area show that about 

60–70 percent of the water-level decline measured since the 

mid-1990s can be attributed to climate, about 20–30 percent 

can be attributed to increases in groundwater pumping, and 

about 10 percent is due to canal lining.
24 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

tac13-0819_fig20

3,070

3,080

3,090

3,100

3,110

3,120

3,130

3,140

3,150

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Simulated head elevation, in feet

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 increases in pumping and decreases in canal leakage

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 decreases in canal leakage with no post-1994 increases in pumping

Simulation with climate variations and no post-1994 increases in pumping or post-1994 decreases in canal leakage

EXPLANATION

Year

Figure 20. Simulated head elevations in well 15S/10E-08ACD near Sisters, Oregon.

2,930

2,940

2,950

2,960

2,970

2,980

2,990

3,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Simulated head elevation, in feet

Year

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 increases in pumping and decreases in canal leakage

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 decreases in canal leakage with no post-1994 increases in pumping

Simulation with climate variations and no post-1994 increases in pumping or post-1994 decreases in canal leakage

EXPLANATION

Figure 21. Simulated head elevations in well15S/10E-02CDA east of Sisters, Oregon.
Simulation of 1997–2008 Groundwater Conditions 25

tac13-0819_fig22

EXPLANATION

2,520

2,522

2,524

2,526

2,528

2,530

2,532

2,534

2,536

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Simulated head elevation, in feet

Year

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 increases in pumping and decreases in canal leakage

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 decreases in canal leakage with no post-1994 increases in pumping

Simulation with climate variations and no post-1994 increases in pumping or post-1994 decreases in canal leakage

2,510

2,512

2,514

2,516

2,518

2,520

2,522

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Simulated head elevation, in feet

Year

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 increases in pumping and decreases in canal leakage

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 decreases in canal leakage with no post-1994 increases in pumping

Simulation with climate variations and no post-1994 increases in pumping or post-1994 decreases in canal leakage

EXPLANATION

Figure 22. Simulated head elevations in well 14S/11E-01DDD1 near Lower Bridge, upper Deschutes 

Basin, central Oregon.

Figure 23. Simulated head elevations in well 14S/12E-02CCC near Lower Bridge, upper Deschutes 

Basin, central Oregon.
26 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

Cline Buttes to Redmond Area

Water levels in the area between Cline Buttes and 

Redmond have declined about 12–14 ft since the mid1990s. As in the Lower Bridge area to the northwest, the 

decline has been more or less continuous since the mid1990s. Declines persisted in the area west of Redmond, at a 

lesser rate in some wells, throughout the wet period in the 

late 1990s (figs. 24 and 25). Simulations show that about 

60–70 percent of the measured decline in the area between 

Cline Butte and Redmond is likely due to climate influences, 

while 20–25 percent is due to increases in pumping, and 

5–10 percent is the result of decreased recharge due to canal 

lining.

Water-level declines in the area between Cline Buttes 

and Redmond are about double those observed in the Lower 

Bridge area, even though the shapes of the trends are very 

similar. The declines in the Lower Bridge area may be 

attenuated because of proximity to the discharge area along 

2,685

2,690

2,695

2,700

2,705

2,710

2,715

2,720

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Simulated head elevation, in feet

Year

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 increases in pumping and decreases in canal leakage

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 decreases in canal leakage with no post-1994 increases in pumping

Simulation with climate variations and no post-1994 increases in pumping or post-1994 decreases in canal leakage

EXPLANATION

Figure 24. Simulated head elevations in well 15S/13E-18ADD1 near Redmond, Oregon.

the Deschutes River. Head-dependent flux boundaries, such 

as the gaining streams in the area, tend to buffer water-level 

fluctuations.

Redmond to Powell Butte Area

Water levels in the area between Redmond and the 

community of Powell Butte have had declines of about 

13–14 ft since 1995. The decline has been persistent, but 

the rate of decline lessened during the wet period in the late 

1990s (fig. 26). Like the Lower Bridge area, the Redmond to 

Powell Buttes area did not experience a water-level recovery 

during the late-1990s wet period, most likely because of 

the attenuation of the recharge pulse with distance from the 

Cascade Range recharge area. Simulations indicate that about 

60–65 percent of the measured decline is due to climate, about 

25–30 percent is due to post-1994 increases in pumping, and 

about 10 percent is due to decreases in recharge due to canal 

lining since the mid-1990s.
Simulation of 1997–2008 Groundwater Conditions 27

tac13-0819_fig25

2,742

2,744

2,746

2,748

2,750

2,752

2,754

2,756

2,758

2,760

2,762

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Simulated head elevation, in feet

Year

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 increases in pumping and decreases in canal leakage

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 decreases in canal leakage with no post-1994 increases in pumping

Simulation with climate variations and no post-1994 increases in pumping or post-1994 decreases in canal leakage 

EXPLANATION

Figure 25. Simulated head elevations in well 15S/12E-14CDD west of Redmond, Oregon.

2,695

2,700

2,705

2,710

2,715

2,720

2,725

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Simulated head elevation, in feet

Year

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 increases in pumping and decreases in canal leakag

Simulation with climate variations and post-1994 decreases in canal leakage with no post-1994 increases in pumping

Simulation with climate variations and no post-1994 increases in pumping or post-1994 decreases in canal leakage

EXPLANATION

Figure 26. Simulated head elevations in well 15S/13E-21ADB1 near Redmond, Oregon.
28 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

Spatial Distribution of Pumping and CanalLining Influences

Maps showing simulated water-level changes resulting 

from post-1994 increases in pumping and decreased recharge 

due to canal lining can provide insights into the spatial 

distribution and magnitude of the impacts from these stresses. 

Such maps are created by subtracting 2008 water levels in 

each cell simulated in the base run from the 2008 water levels 

for the same cells from model runs during which post-1994 

pumping or canal leakage were held at 1994 rates. Water-level 

changes resulting from decreases in canal leakage or due to 

increases in pumping vary with depth. Pumping impacts are 

largest at depths (and in strata) from which the water is being 

withdrawn. The effects of canal lining, in contrast, are most 

prominent at shallow depths closest to canals, and attenuate 

with depth.

The simulated water-level declines due to the post-1994 

growth in groundwater pumping are generally centered on 

the area around Bend, Sisters, Redmond, and Powell Butte 

(fig. 27). In model layer 1, which corresponds to the upper 

100 ft of the saturated zone (the zone beneath the water table), 

post-1994 pumping-related declines range from 1 to 5 ft over 

most of the populated part of the basin as of 2008, with local 

areas of up to 10 ft near centers of concentrated pumping 

near Sisters, Bend, and Powell Butte (fig. 27A). Deeper in the 

aquifer system, in model layer 3 (200- to 300-ft below the 

water table), the pumping-related declines are more evenly 

spread out, but still generally range from 1 to 5 ft, with some 

areas showing declines of 10–50 ft in the Bend area (fig. 27B). 

As described in preceding sections, simulated impacts from 

post-1994 pumping are consistent with measured water 

levels at observation wells. There are no monitoring wells in 

the Bend area in the areas where simulations show possible 

impacts.

Simulated water-level declines resulting from decreased 

groundwater recharge due to canal lining since 1994 range 

from 1 to 5 ft as of 2008, over a broad area encompassing 

Bend, lower Tumalo Creek, the Sisters area, and Redmond 

(fig. 28). Simulated water-level declines are as much as 68 ft 

in model layer 1, however, adjacent to canals with the largest 

reported decreases in leakage (fig. 28A). Simulated post-1994 

water-level declines due to canal lining are more subdued, 

generally less than 10 ft, in model layer 3, with declines of up 

to about 15 ft near Tumalo Creek (fig. 28B). Simulations show 

that water-level declines up to 10 ft in adjacent to lined canals 

near Madras as of 2008.
Simulation of 1997–2008 Groundwater Conditions 29

tac13-0819_fig27a

Cline

Buttes

Powell

Buttes

Powell 

Butte

La Pine Subbasin

Round

Butte

Dam

Butte

Newberry Volcano

Butte

McKinney

Black

Bend

Madras

Sisters

Redmond

La Pine

SISTERS

FAULT ZONE

Prineville

Camp 

Sherman

Lower 

Bridge

BLUE MOUNTAINS

WHEELER

JEFFERSON

CROOK LINN

LANE

DESCHUTES

MARION

KLAMATH

DOUGLAS

HIGH LAVA PLAINS

WASCO

LAKE

Base map modified from U.S. Geological Survey and other digital data sources, various scales. 

Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 10; 

North American Datum of 1927

C

A

S

C

A

D E

R

A

N

G

E

122° 121°30' 121° 120°30'

44°30'

44°

43°30'

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 MILES

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 KILOMETERS

T.

10

S.

R. 10 E. R. 20 E.

T.

20

S.

EXPLANATION

Increases in annual pumping, in acre-feet, 

2004–2008

Study area

1 to 100

101 to 250

251 to 1,000

1,001 to 2,000

2,001 to 5,332

-76.7 to -50.0

-49.9 to -10.0

-9.9 to -5.0

-4.9 to -2.0

-1.9 to -1.0

-0.9 to 0

Simulated water-level changes resulting 

from increases in annual pumping, 

1994–2008, in feet, model layer 1

A.

Figure 27. Increases in groundwater pumping since 1994 and simulated groundwater-level declines resulting only from post1994 increases pumping in the upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon as of 2008. (A), model layer 1; (B), model layer 3.
30 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

tac13-0819_fig27b

Cline

Buttes

Powell

Buttes

Powell 

Butte

La Pine Subbasin

Round

Butte

Dam

Butte

Newberry Volcano

Butte

McKinney

Black

Bend

Madras

Sisters

Redmond

La Pine

Prineville

Camp 

Sherman

Lower 

Bridge

BLUE MOUNTAINS

WHEELER

JEFFERSON

CROOK LINN

LANE

DESCHUTES

MARION

KLAMATH

DOUGLAS

HIGH LAVA PLAINS

WASCO

LAKE

SISTERS

FAULT ZONE

Base map modified from U.S. Geological Survey and other digital data sources, various scales. 

Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 10; 

North American Datum of 1927

C

A

S

C

A

D E

R

A

N

G

E

122° 121°30' 121° 120°30'

44°30'

44°

43°30'

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 MILES

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 KILOMETERS

T.

10

S.

R. 10 E. R. 20 E.

T.

20

S.

EXPLANATION

Increases in annual pumping, in acre-feet, 

2004–2008

Study area

1 to 100

101 to 250

251 to 1,000

1,001 to 2,000

2,001 to 5,332

Simulated water-level changes resulting 

from increases in annual pumping, 

1994–2008, in feet, model layer 3

-106.8 to -50.0

-49.9 to -10.0

-9.9 to -5.0

-4.9 to -2.0

-1.9 to -1.0

-0.9 to 0

B.

Figure 27.—Continued
Simulation of 1997–2008 Groundwater Conditions 31

tac13-0819_fig28a

Cline

Buttes

Powell

Buttes

Powell 

Butte

La Pine Subbasin

Round

Butte

Dam

Butte

Newberry Volcano

Butte

McKinney

Black

Bend

Madras

Sisters

Redmond

La Pine

Prineville

Camp 

Sherman

Lower 

Bridge

BLUE MOUNTAINS

WHEELER

JEFFERSON

CROOK

LINN

LANE

DESCHUTES

MARION

KLAMATH

DOUGLAS

HIGH LAVA PLAINS

WASCO

LAKE

SISTERS

FAULT ZONE

Base map modified from U.S. Geological Survey and other digital data sources, various scales. 

Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 10; 

North American Datum of 1927

C

A

S

C

A

D E

R

A

N

G

E

122° 121°30' 121° 120°30'

44°30'

44°

43°30'

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 MILES

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 KILOMETERS

T.

10

S.

R. 10 E. R. 20 E.

T.

20

S.

EXPLANATION

Estimated decreases in annual canal 

leakage due to canal lining, 1994–2008, 

in acre-feet per year for each shaded 

canal segment

Simulated groundwater-level declines 

resulting from decreased canal 

leakage, in feet, model layer 1

1 to 100

101 to 200

201 to 500

501 to 1,000

1,001 to 5,000

5,001 to 10,000

10,001 to 16,983

-68.3 to -50.0

-49.9 to -10.0

-9.9 to -5.0

-4.9 to -2.0

-1.9 to -1.0

-0.9 to 0

Study area

A.

Figure 28. Upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon, showing estimated decreases in annual canal leakage due to canal lining between 1994 

and 2008, and simulated groundwater-level declines resulting from decreased canal leakage. (A) model layer 1; (B) model layer 3.
32 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

tac13-0819_fig28b

Cline

Buttes

Powell

Buttes

Powell 

Butte

La Pine Subbasin

Round

Butte

Dam

Butte

Newberry Volcano

Butte

McKinney

Black

Bend

Madras

Sisters

Redmond

La Pine

Prineville

Camp 

Sherman

Lower 

Bridge

BLUE MOUNTAINS

WHEELER

JEFFERSON

CROOK

LINN

LANE

DESCHUTES

MARION

KLAMATH

DOUGLAS

HIGH LAVA PLAINS

WASCO

LAKE

SISTERS

FAULT ZONE

Base map modified from U.S. Geological Survey and other digital data sources, various scales. 

Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator projection, Zone 10; 

North American Datum of 1927

C

A

S

C

A

D E

R

A

N

G

E

122° 121°30' 121° 120°30'

44°30'

44°

43°30'

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 MILES

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 KILOMETERS

T.

10

S.

R. 10 E. R. 20 E.

T.

20

S.

EXPLANATION

Estimated decreases in annual canal 

leakage due to canal lining, 1994–2008, 

in acre-feet per year for each shaded 

canal segment

Simulated groundwater-level declines 

resulting from decreased canal 

leakage, in feet, model layer 3

1 to 100

101 to 200

201 to 500

501 to 1,000

1,001 to 5,000

5,001 to 10,000

10,001 to 16,983

-14.662 to -10.000

-9.999 to -5.000

-4.999 to -2.000

-1.999 to -1.000

-0.999 to 0

Study area

B.

Figure 28.—Continued
Summary 33

Summary 

Water levels in the central parts of the upper Deschutes 

Basin have declined by as much as 14 ft since the mid1990s. The factors that affect groundwater levels in the basin 

and that are contributing to the measured declines include 

climate variations (both long-term trends and decadal cycles), 

increases in groundwater pumping, and decreases in artificial 

recharge due to lining of irrigation canals. The relative 

contribution of each of these factors has been evaluated using 

a groundwater-flow model. Water-level changes are dominated 

by climatic influences. In the central part of the basin, 

however, increases in groundwater pumping and decreases in 

recharge due to canal lining have significantly contributed to 

water-level declines.

The upper Deschutes Basin has experienced a general 

drying trend for the past several decades. The drying trend 

is manifested as a decrease in annual mean flow of many 

streams in the region, as well as decreases in groundwater 

discharge to spring-fed streams such as Fall River since 

1950. Decreases in streamflow since the late 1950s in the 

Cascade Range and throughout the Pacific Northwest are well 

documented. Groundwater recharge calculated for this study 

using the Deep Percolation Model decreased about 25 percent 

between the 1979–88 period and the 1999–2008 period. A 

decrease in groundwater recharge is consistent with historical 

measurements that show that the discharge of spring-fed 

streams has also decreased in recent decades.

Superimposed on this long-term trend are seasonal 

variations and cyclic wet and dry periods (drought cycles) that 

occur on decadal time scales. The basin experienced a wet 

period from the mid- 1990s to about 2000 that was followed 

by a dry cycle that lasted until about 2005. Climate conditions 

were normal or wetter than normal from 2006 to 2008. In 

response, measured groundwater levels in the Cascade Range, 

the principal groundwater recharge area, rose about 20 ft from 

the mid-1990s to 2000, and then declined a similar amount 

between 2000 and 2005. Water levels again rose as much 

as 10 ft between 2005 and 2008. The period of record for 

monitored wells in the Cascade Range is too short to discern 

the multi-decadal decrease observed in the streamflow and 

precipitation data.

The decadal climate cycles observed in the Cascade 

Range groundwater levels are increasingly attenuated 

toward the east in the central parts of the basin. Moving east 

from Sisters, for example, the decadal variations observed 

in the Cascades are more subtle, and the hydrographs are 

increasingly dominated by the multi-decadal declining trend. 

The short-term wet periods that result in marked rises in 

groundwater levels in the Cascade Range manifest in the 

interior parts of the basin as decreases in the rates of waterlevel declines.

Model analysis has provided insights into the relative 

contribution of climate variations, increased pumping, 

and increased canal lining on measured groundwater-level 

declines in the upper Deschutes Basin. Modeling has also 

provided insights into the geographic distribution of the 

response to these stresses. The effects of increased pumping 

and increased canal lining, as it turns out, are largely limited 

to the developed interior parts of the basin extending northsouth roughly from Benham Falls north to Lower Bridge, and 

east-west from the area of Sisters to Powell Butte (the eastern 

extent of the model). Decreases in recharge due to on-farm 

losses (deep percolation of applied irrigation water) were 

included in the simulation analysis but were sufficiently small 

that they were considered negligible and not included in the 

discussion.

Water levels in the Sisters area rise and decline in 

response to climate in a manner similar to that observed in 

the Cascade Range. Despite longer term declines, 2008 water 

levels in the Sisters area were at or above the mid-1990s levels 

due to wet climatic conditions. West of McKinney Butte, 

water levels observed in the Sisters area have risen about 

10 ft since 2005. Water-level trends in the Sisters area east 

of McKinney Butte, however, have remained flat, possibly 

reflecting the effects of the Sisters Fault Zone and larger 

distance from the principal recharge area in the Cascade 

Range. Simulations show that post-1994 canal lining and 

increases in groundwater pumping may be jointly responsible 

for head losses of approximately 6–8 ft in the Sisters area as of 

2008.

The Lower Bridge area northeast of Sisters has 

experienced water-level declines of about 5 to 6 ft since the 

mid-1990s. Of these measured declines, about 3–4 ft, or 

60–70 percent, can be attributed to climate, 1–2 ft, or about 

20–30 percent, to post-1994 increases in pumping, and about 

0.5 ft (roughly 10 percent) to canal lining. Water-level declines 

in the Lower Bridge area have been more or less continuous, 

with the rate of decline changing with wet and dry climate 

cycles.

The area extending from Cline Buttes through 

Redmond, and east to the community of Powell Butte, has 

seen groundwater-level declines of about 12–14 ft between 

the mid-1990s and 2008. Of this decline, 7–10 ft (or about 

60–70 percent) can be attributed to climate, 2.5–3.5 ft 

(20– 30 percent) to increases in pumping since 1994, and 

0.5–1.5 ft (5–10 percent) to canal lining. As with the Lower 

Bridge area, water levels in Redmond and the surrounding 

area have exhibited a more or less continual decline, the rate 

varying with climate cycles.

Spatial analysis of simulation results shows that water 

level impacts resulting from post-1994 canal lining and 

increases in pumping extend from the Benham Falls area 

north to Lower Bridge, and from the Sisters area east to the 

community of Powell Butte. Outside of this general area of 

impact, the effects of pumping and canal lining generally 

are in the range of hundredths to tenths of a foot. Simulated 

water-level changes match measured declines reasonably well 

in the northern part of the area of impact, but there is a lack of 

monitoring in the southern part of the area with which to track 

water-level changes and verify simulation results.
34 Analysis of 1997–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge contributions of 

individuals whose efforts contributed to this report. Critical 

public-supply water use data were provided by Patrick 

Griffiths, City of Bend; Jan Wick, Avion Water Company; and 

Pat Dorning, City of Redmond. Jon Haynes (USGS) compiled 

water use data and Scott Waibel (USGS) updated and ran the 

Deep Percolation Model. Dan Polette (USGS) and Ned Gates 

(OWRD) revisited several of the wells from the earlier study. 

Kyle Gorman and Jonathan La Marche of OWRD shared their 

considerable insights into the hydrology and changes in the 

basin, and provided valuable data on canal lining and land 

idling.

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For additional information contact:

Director, Oregon Water Science Center

U.S. Geological Survey

2130 SW 5th Avenue

Portland, Oregon 97201

http://or.water.usgs.gov

Publishing support provided by the U.S. Geological Survey

Publishing Network, Tacoma Publishing Service Center
Gannett and Lite— Analysis of 1998–2008 Groundwater Level Changes in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon—Scientific Investigations Report 2013–5092