Dan E. Arvizu

Director, National Renewable Energy Lab

The Growing Significa

of Renewable Energ

Presented at the Kennedy School of G

at Harvard University

February 5, 2007

NREL/PR-100-41167
Energy Solutions Are Eno

Challenging

Must address all three imperat

Vulnerability 

or 

Opportunity

Vulnerability 

or 

Opportunity

Energy Security Energy Security Economic 

Productivi

Economic Economic Productivi

Environmental Impact Environmental Impact

• Secure supply• Reliability

• Secure supply

• Reliability Reliability • Growth in 

demand

• Price vola

• Growth in Growth in 

demand

• Price vol

Price vol

• Land and water use• Carbon emissions

• Land and water use Land and water use• Carbon emissions Carbon emissions
How Big is the Challen

Source: Arvizu, NREL
World Energy Supply 

the Role of Renewable E

Source: OECD/IEA, 2004
U.S. Energy Consumptio

the Role of Renewable E

Source: Energy Information Administration,Annual Energy Outlook 2006, Table D4
Carbon and Energy Inte

Source: Energy Information Administration, “Annual Energy Review 2005”, DOE/EIA-0384(2005), Table 1.5
Thinking Differently

Account for Externalit

Today’s energy marketplace does not appropriately “value” certain public objectives 

social goods, instead we have:

– Price volatility– Serious environmental impacts– Underinvestment in energy innovation
Source: Daniel Kammen, Gregory Nemet Reversing the Incredible, Shrinking Energy R&D Budget http://rael.berkeley.edu/f

Table 10.3, Edition 25, Transportation Energy Data Book http://cta.ornl.gov/data/chapter10.shtml

U.S. R&D Spending in the Energy Sector

Billions 2002$

Declining Energy R&D Inves
Declining Energy R&D Inves

Reflect World Oil Price Mov

Source: Daniel Kammen, Gregory Nemet Reversing the Incredible, Shrinking Energy R&D Budget http://rael.berkeley.edu/fTable 10.3, Edition 25, Transportation Energy Data Book http://cta.ornl.gov/data/chapter10.shtml

U.S. R&D Spending in the Energy Sector

Billions 2002$
U.S. Energy Consumptio

the Role of Renewable E

Source: OECD/IEA, 2004

“Yes if” ... not... “no be

– New
Technology-Based Solu

There is no single or simple a

• Energy efficiency

• Renewable energy

• Nonpolluting transportation 

fuels 

• Separation and sequestration 

of CO

2

• Next generation nuclear 

energy technologies

• Transition to distributed 

energy systems coupled with pollution-free energy carriers
Resources are Plent

Solar

Source: http://howto.altenergystore.com/Reference-Materials/Solar-Insolation-Map-World/a43/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Biomass
Impressive Cost Reduc
CALIFORNIA

Worldwide Markets Have Driv

Reductions – Solar PV Exa
Investing in the Futu

Energy-Tech InPercent of Tota

Global Renewable Energy Annual Growth Rates 2000-2004

Sources:Renewables 2005 Global Status Report, REN21Clean Energy Trends 2006, Nth Power LLCVenture Business Resources

$2.7B invested in private clean energy firm

America and Europe in 2006.
Getting to “Significance” In

Policies 

Reducing

Risk

Reducing

Risk

Mob

Ca

Mob

Ca

Technologies

Source: NREL
Consistent Policies are Req

Long-Term Market Gro

• National goals

– Biofuels: 30% of gasoline by 2030

– Wind: 20% of electricity generation b

– Solar: Be market competitive by 201

• Infrastructure investments require

these goals, for example:

– Biofuels: 30x30 analysis estimated in

cost between $8.5 and $28.5B over 
NREL Energy Efficiency and Renew

Technology Development Pro

Efficient Energy Use• Vehicle 

Technologies

• Building 

Technologies

• Industrial 

Technologies

Renewable Resources• Wind• Solar• Biomass• Geothermal

NREL R&D Portfolio

Foundational Science
Technology Innovation Ch

• Wind

– Next generation wind turbines

• Improve energy capture by 30%• Decrease capital costs by 25%

• Solar photovoltaics

– Improved performance through

• process improvements• better materials• concentration

– Harnessing nanostructures & new 

quantum effects

• Biofuels

– Next generation biofuels

• New feedstocks• Improved energy crops• Integrated biorefineries
Wind 

Long Term Potential• 20% of the nation’s electricity supplyNREL Research Thrusts• Improved performance and reliability

• Distributed wind technology• Advanced rotor development• Utility grid integration

Today’s Status in U.S.• 11,603 MW installed at end of 2006

• Cost 6-9¢/kWh at good wind sites*

DOE Cost Goals• 3.6¢/kWh, onshore at low wind sites 

by 2012

• 7¢/kWh, offshore in shallow water by 

2014

* With no Production Tax CreditUpdated January 23, 2007Source: U.S. Department of Energy, American Wind Energy Association
Evolution of U.S. Commercial W

Solar

Photovoltaics and Concentrating So

NREL ResearchThrusts:PV• Partnering with industry• Higher efficiency devices • New nanomaterials applica• Advanced manufacturing teCSP• Next generation solar colle• High performance storage

Status in U.S.PV• 526 MW• Cost 18-23¢/kWhCSP• 355 MW• Cost 12¢/kWhPotential:PV• 11-18¢/kWh by 2010• 5-10 ¢/kWh by 2015CSP8.5 ¢/kWh by 20106 ¢/kWh by 2015

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, IEAUpdated November 8, 2006
PowerLight PowerGuard® Rooftop System, 

536 kW, Toyota Motor Corp., Torrance, CA

Shell Solar at Semitropic Water Storage Dist.980 kW, single-axis tracking, Wasco, CA 

WorldWater & Power, Irrigation System267 kW, Seley Ranches, CA

Sun SolaOro

Shell Solar, “Sunspot Bürstadt”, Grid tied, 5MW, Bürstadt, Germa

RidgeVineyardsPV Rooftop65 kW, CA

RWE Schott Stillwell Avenue SubwStation, PV Canopy Roof, 250,000 kWh/yr, Brooklyn, NY

WorldWater & Power and Alternity Power

Atlantic County Wastewater TreatmentPlant, 8 MW solar-wind hybrid, NJ
PowerLight PowerGuard® Rooftop System, 

536 kW, Toyota Motor Corp., Torrance, CA

Shell Solar at Semitropic Water Storage Dist.980 kW, single-axis tracking, Wasco, CA 

WorldWater & Power, Irrigation System267 kW, Seley Ranches, CA

Sun SolaOro

Shell Solar, “Sunspot Bürstadt”, Grid tied, 5MW, Bürstadt, Germa

RidgeVineyardsPV Rooftop65 kW, CA

RWE Schott Stillwell Avenue SubwStation, PV Canopy Roof, 250,000 kWh/yr, Brooklyn, NY

WorldWater & Power and Alternity Power

Atlantic County Wastewater TreatmentPlant, 8 MW solar-wind hybrid, NJ

Powerlight, Bavarian community6.750 MW, single-axis tracking Mühlhausen, Germany
PV Module Production Experience (or “L

1st Generation TechnolCrystalline Silicon

1st Generation Technol

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers Improved processingImproved performance

Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers Improved processingImproved performance

PV Module Production Experience (or “L

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers Improved processingImproved performance

Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers Improved processingImproved performance

PV Module Production Experience (or “L

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
PV Module Production Experience (or “L

Disruptive I2nd Generation Thin films Concentrators Organics . . .

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
PV Module Production Experience (or “L

Disruptive I2nd Generation Thin films Concentrators Organics . . .

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
Disruptive II3rd Gen and beyondQuantum dotsNanotechnologyMulti-multi-junctionsThermophotonics, voltaicsIntermediate band . . .

70%

60%

PV Module Production Experience (or “L

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
Disruptive II3rd Gen and beyondQuantum dotsNanotechnologyMulti-multi-junctionsThermophotonics, voltaicsIntermediate band . . .

70%

60%

PV Module Production Experience (or “L

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1 Efficienc

Shockley-

(40% ... 5

EfficiencShockley-

(40% ... 5

DOE is the STEWARDR&DEnsures technology ownership, enables growth, n
Disruptive II3rd Gen and beyondQuantum dotsNanotechnologyMulti-multi-junctionsThermophotonics, voltaicsIntermediate band . . .

70%

60%

PV Module Production Experience (or “L

PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1 Efficienc

Shockley-

(40% ... 5

EfficiencShockley-

(40% ... 5

DOE is the STEWARDR&DEnsures technology ownership, enables growth, n
Technology Investment P
The New Biofuels

President Bush’s “Twenty in 

Strengthening America’s Energy 

• Reduce U.S. gasoline consumption 20% 

– Require 35 billion gallons of renewable and 

by 2017 to displace 15% of projected annua

• President’s 2008 Budget will

– Include nearly $2.7B for the Advanced Ener

increase of 26% above the 2007 request 

– Provide $179M for the President’s Biofuels 

increase of $29M (19%) compared to the 20

• President’s Farm Bill proposal will includ

$1.6B of additional new funding over teenergy innovation, including bioenergy 

$2B in loans for cellulosic ethanol plants
Biofuels

Current Biofuels status• Biodiesel – 91 million gallons1 (2005)

• Corn ethanol (Nov. 2006)

– 106 commercial plants2

– 5.1 billion gallon/yr. capacity2– 3rd Q 2006 rack price highly 

variable $3.50 – 5.50/gallon of 

gasoline equivalent (gge)3

• Cellulosic ethanol

– Projected commercial cost 

~$3.50/gge

Updated November 10, 2006Sources: 1- National Biodiesel Board, 2 - Renewable Fuels Association, 3 – American Coalition 

for Ethanol, all other information based on DOE and USDA sources

NREL Research Thrusts• The biorefinery and cellulosic ethanol • Solutions to under-utilized waste residues• Energy crops

Key DOE Goals• 2012 goal: cellulosic ethanol ~$1.62/gge

• 2030 goal: 60 billion gal ethanol (30% of 2004 gasoline)
Significance of the 1.3 Billion Ton Bio

Based on ORNL & USDA Resource Assessment Study by Perlach et.al. (April 2005)

http://www.eere.energy.gov/biomass/pdfs/final_billionton_vision_report2.pdf
Reducing the Cost of Cellulo

$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00

2000 2005 2010 

Minimum Ethanol Selling Price ($/gal)

State of Technology 

Estimates

Feed $53/ton

Yield 65 gal/ton

Feed $30/ton

Yield 90 gal/ton

$1.07 

Technology 

Case
From DOE GTL Bioenergy 
NREL “Corn St

• Increase crop 

production (agronomics and plant engineering)

• Increase 

composition of desirable polysaccharides (cellulose)

• Decrease 

composition of undesirable polymers (lignins)

Feedstock Engineer
Biofuels R&D
Technology Investment Pa

Renewable Fuels
Harnessing Innovation in Renew

Science and Technolo

The Future Promise

• Supercomputers

• Genomics

• Nanoscience

• Cellulosic and biofuels 

applications

• Hydrogen

Nano/Bio/Info
Putting the Pieces Tog
Promise of renewable ene

profound and can be realize

• Aggressively seek a global sustai

economy

• Acknowledge and mitigate the ca

challenge with the necessary poli

• Accelerate investment in technolo

It is a matter of national will and