P.1 

OAR Box 1111 

Prepped by Ryan Dugan 

Document Number: 

H46-) 11-A-7 

Docket Number: 

A-83-22 

Printed 4/15/2008 1:25:18 PM Sheet 116 of 118 
P.2 

A-S1 " 2-

PEI ASSOCIATES 
P.3 

EXPOSURE OF CHILDREN TO 

LEAD-BASED PAINTS 

by 

Anne Pope 

PEI Associates, Inc. 

505 South Duke Street, Suite 503 

Durham, North Carolina 27701-3196 

Contract No. 68-02-4309 

Work Assignment No. 9 

PN 3659-9 

Richard B. Atherton, Project Officer 

Jeff Cohen, Work Assignment Manager 

STRATEGIES AND AIR STANDARDS DIVISION 

U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY 

RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NORTH CAROLINA 27711 

January 1986 
P.4 

DISCLAIMER 

This report was prepared by PEI Associates, Inc., Cincinnati, Ohio, 

under Contract No. 68-02-4309, Work Assignment No. 9. It has been reviewed 

by the Strategies and Air Standards Division of the Office of Air Quality 

Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and approved for 

publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect 

the views and policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Mention 

of trade names or commercial products is not intended to constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. 

n 
P.5 

CONTENTS 

Tables iv 

Acknowledgment v 

1. Introduction 1 

2. Model for Estimating Number of Children Living in Homes 

Having Lead-Based Paint 2 

3. Estimates Produced by Model 11 

4. Discussion of Model Estimates and Exposure of Children to 

Lead from Paints 18 

References 20 

m 
P.6 

TABLES 

Number Page 

1 Housing and Population Parameters of Lead-Based Paint 

Exposure Model 3 

2 Estimates of Children Per Household. 4 

3 States Located in the Census Regions of the United States. . 5 

4 Estimates of Percentage of Housing Units Built During 

Indicated Period Which Contain Lead-Based Paints 6 

5 Estimates of the Number of Unsound Occupied Housing Units. . 8 

6 Estimates of Children Residing in Homes with Lead-Based 

Paints 12 

7 Comparison of PEI's National Estimates with Those Presented 

in the Literature 17 

iv 
P.7 

ACKNOWLEDGMENT 

This report was prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency by 

PEI Associates, Inc., Cincinnati, Ohio. Mr. Jeff Cohen was the EPA Work 

Assignment Manager. Mr. David Dunbar served as the Project Director; Mr. Ted 

Johnson was the Project Manager. The principal author was Ms. Anne Pope. 

The author would like to thank Mr. Jeff Cohen for his guidance and direction 

on this Work Assignment. The author would also like to acknowledge Mr. Ted 

Johnson, Ms. Alicia Ferdo, and Ms. Donna Sledge for their assistance and 

cooperation. 
P.8 

SECTION 1 

INTRODUCTION 

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently assessing the 

exposure of children under 7 years of age to lead in the environment. In this 

age group, lead poisoning occurs primarily in children who reside in older, 

deteriorating, lead-based painted homes (LPH's) where the paint is chalking, 

1 2 3 flaking, and/or peeling. ' ' Although peeling lead-based paints are 

implicated as a major source of lead exposure in children, investigations by 

Gilbert et al. and Galke et al. suggest that intact lead-based paints in 

4 5 homes also contribute to the exposure of children to lead. ' The amount of 

lead in paint, the integrity of the painted surfaces, and the accessibility of 

lead-based paint chips to children determine the degree of the lead exposure 

hazard to children posed by the presence of lead-based paints. In poorly 

maintained homes where poor housekeeping occurs, peeling lead-based paints, 

weathered and powdered lead-based paints, and broken plaster are sources of 

lead exposure in children. Under Work Assignment No. 9, Contract No. 68-02-4309, 

PEI Associates, Inc. (PEI) developed a model to estimate 1) the number of 

housing units that can be categorized as LPH's, as deteriorated and dilapidated 

housing units, and as deteriorated and dilapidated LPH's; and 2) the number of 

children under 7 years of age who reside in housing units that fall into each of 

these categories. This report presents estimates made by this model and discusses whether estimates of the number of children who live in homes with leadbased paints are reasonable estimates of the number of children exposed to 

lead-based paints. 
P.9 

SECTION 2 

MODEL FOR ESTIMATING NUMBER OF CHILDREN LIVING 

IN HOMES HAVING LEAD-BASED PAINTS 

PEI reviewed the literature to develop a model for predicting the number 

of LPH's, unsound housing units, and unsound LPH's in the United States and 

the number of children who reside in these three categories of homes. One 

difficulty encountered in reviewing the literature is the disagreement among 

researchers as to the level of lead in painted surfaces that constitutes a 

hazard to children. Currently, the Center for Disease Control, CDC, considers 

2 6 

homes that contain 0.7 mg lead/cm in painted surfaces to be hazardous. Many 

studies, however, define a hazard in homes to be the presence of 1 percent or 

more lead in painted surfaces. These two definitions are not comparable. The 

percentage of lead in paints does not correspond directly or indirectly to mg 

2 2 

lead/cm in painted surfaces because mg lead/cm measures the lead that is 

present in single and multiple layers of paint on a surface. In defining the 

amount of lead in paint that presents a hazard to children, PEI has decided 

2 

to use the current CDC definition of 0.7 mg lead/cm . 

The age of housing units and the amount of lead in painted surfaces are 

directly related. Prior to 1940, interior paints contained 50 percent lead 

2 

by weight. In 1940, titantium dioxide (Ti02) paints were used in addition to 

lead-based paints in homes. In 1955, paints were required to not contain more 

than 1 percent lead by weight, and in 1971, the sale of interior lead-based 

g 

paints was banned in the United States. Today indoor household paints are 

2 9 limited to a lead content of not more than 0.06 percent by weight. ' Many 

of the homes built prior to 1960, however, stil l have lead-based paints on 

interior and exterior surfaces, plasters, and putties. Although the surfaces 

in older homes may be coated by paints containing no lead, the underlying 

layers of lead-based paints still represent a large source of environmental 

lead exposure in children. 

PEI has developed a lead-based paint exposure model based primarily 

on the age of housing units and the occupancy of housing units by children. 

Table 1 lists the parameters of the model. Using the housing parameters in 
P.10 

TABLE 1. HOUSING AND POPULATION PARAMETERS OF LEAD-BASED 

PAINT EXPOSURE MODEL 

Number of occupied housing units currently standing which were constructed 

in four periods 

Pre-1940 

1940 to 1959 

1960 to 1974 

1975 to 1980 

Percentage of housing units in each construction period above that contain 

pain.ted surfaces with >0.7 mg Tead/cm2 

Number of sound housing units 

Number of unsound housing units 

Number of children 6-years old or younger in the United States and in four 

regions of the United States 

Number of children per housing unit 

Table 1, the model estimated the number of occupied homes, LPH's, unsound 

homes, and unsound LPH's in the entire United States and in four regions of 

the United States. Unsound housing units included deteriorated and dilapidated 

homes with holes in the walls, peeling paint, and/or broken and cracked 

plaster. The model also estimated the number of children who resided in all 

occupied dwellings, LPH's, unsound housing units, and unsound LPH's. 

The number of occupied housing units was determined for each of the 

following construction age groups of homes: pre-1940, 1940 to 1959, 1960 to 

1974, and 1975 to 1980. These periods were selected to be internally consistent with respect to regulations limiting the lead content of paints during 

different years, the types of paints used during construction of homes, and 

census data. After determining the number of housing units constructed in 

each period, PEI estimated the total number of children under 7 years of age in 

the U.S. from the census data. Because the census data separated children 9 

years or younger into two age groups, i.e., 0 to 4 years and 5 to 9 years, PEI 

used data contained in Information Please Almanac 1985 to calculate the number 

of children under 7 years of age. The 1983 data reported in the Almanac indicated 

40.64 percent of the number of 5 to 9-year-old children were 5 and 6 years 
P.11 

of age. To estimate the number of children who were under 7 years of age, 

PEI used the following equation: 

Children 0 to 7 yr = census 0 to 4 yr + (0.4604) (census 5 to 9 yr). (1) 

To calculate the number of children per household in an area, PEI used Equation 2: 

Children/household = children 0 to 7 yr/pre-1981 housing unit. (2) 

Table 2 presents estimates of the number of children in households in the 

entire United States and in each of the four geographical regions; Table 3 

lists the States in each of the four geographical regions. 

TABLE 2. ESTIMATES OF CHILDREN PER HOUSEHOLD 11,12,13 

Location3 

National 

Northeast 

Midwest 

South 

West 

Number of children 

<7 yr, 1000's 

23,067 

4,439 

6,171 

7,865 

4,592 

Number of homes, 

1000's 

80,390 

17,471 

20,859 

26,486 

15,574 

Children/household 

0.287 

0.254 

0.296 

0.297 

0.295 

See Table 3 for list of States in each region. 

PEI reviewed eight studies containing estimates of the number of occupied 

housing units in each age classification of homes that contained one or more 

2 

painted surfaces with >0.7 mg lead/cm . Table 4 presents these estimates 

and PEI's best estimate for each construction period based on the literature 

review. PEI's estimates are based on the current CDC definition of the amount 

of lead in painted surfaces that presents a hazard to children. Based on a 

telephone survey of local child lead poisoning programs, PEI assumed that lead 

abatement occurred in approximately 1 percent of homes constructed prior to 1940. 

In the literature, the proportion of pre-1940 dwellings with lead-based paints 

4 
P.12 

TABLE 3. STATES LOCATED IN THE CENSUS REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES 

Region 

Northeast 

Midwest 

South 

West 

States 

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, 

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, 

and Vermont 

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, 

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, 

and Wisconsin 

Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, 

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, 

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, 

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia 

Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, 

Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, 

and Wyoming 
P.13 

TABLE 4. ESTIMATES OF PERCENTAGE OF HOUSING UNITS BUILT 

DURING INDICATED PERIOD WHICH CONTAIN LEAD-BASED PAINTS 

Study 

EPA 

Criteria 

Document14 

Billick 3 

and Gray 

Lin-Fu15 

Shier and 

Hall

 16 

Arizona 

Health 

Department

 17 

Minne-,„ 

apolis 

19 Gilsinn 

PEI's 

Best 

Estimate 

PEI's 

Range 

Amount of 

lead in painted 

surface 

>1.5 mg/cm3 

2 

>1.5 mg/cm 

2 

>2.0 mg/cm 

2 

>1.0 mg/cm 

2 

^ >l1.0 mg/cm 

2 

>1.0 mg/cm 

1% 

2 

>0.7 mg/cm 

2 

>0.7 mg/cm 

Pre1940 

75 

77 

100 

100 

100 

99 

75-100 

3 Year of construction 

1940 to 1959 

50 

433 

26 

90 

50 

70 

26-90 

1960 to 1974 

20 

20 

13a 

15 

0 

20 

0-20 

1975 to 1980 

0 

'Estimate 1975. 
P.14 

, ranged from 75 to 100 percent. The reported proportion of homes with lead-based 

paints built from 1940 to 1959 varied from 26 to 90 percent with an average 

value of approximately 50 percent. Therefore, the proportion of homes with 

lead-based paints is at least 50 percent and the upper bound is 90 percent. 

Because of the change in the definition of the amount of lead in paint that 

2 

presents a hazard to children from more than 2.0 to 0.7 mg lead/cm , PEI increased the average value of the proportion of homes constructed from 1940 to 

1959 from 50 percent to 70 percent by averaging the literature's estimated 

values of 50 percent and 90 percent. For housing units built from 1960 to 1974, 

the literature suggested that an average of 20 percent of the homes contained 

lead-based paints. Because of the ban on the manufacture of interior household 

paints with greater than 1 percent lead content in 1955, PEI assumed that the 

literature's estimated percentage of LPH's built from 1960 to 1974 was reasonable. 

Because of the legislation in 1971 prohibiting lead in interior household paints, 

PEI assumed that no homes constructed from 1975 to 1980 contained lead-based 

paints. Equation 3 was used to estimate the number of LPH's built prior to 1981, 

and Equation 4 was used to estimate the number of children who lived in LPH's 

during 1980. 

LPH 80 = °'9 9 Hpre-40 + °-7 0 H40-59 + °-2 0 H60-74 (3) 

Children in LPH8 0 = (LPHQ0)(children/household) (4) 

The variable LPH8Q was the number of occupied LPH's constructed prior to 1981; 

H 4Q was the number of occupied homes built prior to 1940; H40_r-g was the 

number of occupied homes constructed from 1940 to 1959; and HgQ _7 4 was the 

number of occupied homes built from 1960 to 1974. 

To estimate the number of unsound occupied homes, PEI contacted the 

American Housing Survey Department in the U.S. Census Bureau and obtained 1983 

data on the number of unsound housing units in the United States as a whole and 

in each of the four census regions. The American Housing Survey categorized 

homes into three groups according to the condition of walls and ceilings: homes 

that contained holes, homes with peeling paint, and homes with broken and 

cracked plaster. Table 5 presents the American Housing Survey data on a 

national and a regional basis for the three unsound conditions of housing 
Location3 

National 

Northeast 

Midwest 

South 

West 

TABLE 

Number of 

occupied 

homes, 

1000's 

84,638 

18,221 

21,618 

27,931 

16,467 

5. ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER 

Unsound homes with holes 

Number, 1000's 

5,210 

1,318 

1,040 

2,645 

887 

Percentage 

6.2 

7.2 

4.8 

9.5 

5.4 

OF UNSOUND OCCUPIED HOUSING 

Unsound homes with peeling 

paint 

Number, 1000's 

3,968 

1,089 

844 

1,050 

627 

Percentage 

4.7 

6.0 

3.9 

3.8 

3.8 

i 

UNITS 

Unsound homes with broken 

plaster 

Number, 1000's 

3,178 

939 

733 

1,012 

464 

Percentage 

3.8 

5.2 

3.4 

3.6 

2.8 

See Table 3 for list of States in each census region. 

oo Source: American Housing Survey, Reference 20 
P.16 

units. PEI chose to estimate the number of unsound homes as the percentage 

of housing units that have peeling paint and to use the percentage of homes 

with holes as an upper bound and the percentage of homes with broken and 

cracked plaster as a lower bound. Nationally, the percentage of occupied 

unsound housing units ranged from 3.8 to 6.2 percent, with a best estimate of 

4.7 percent. Regionally, the Northeast had the greatest percentage and number 

of unsound homes based on the peeling paint/broken plaster definition of "unsound." When the American Housing Survey data were analyzed according to 

ownership of housing units, the percentage of unsound homes in all three categories was greater in renter-occupied dwellings than in owner-occupied housing 

units in all four regions of the United States. 

The American Housing Survey percentages of unsound housing were compared 

with data on percentages of children residing in unsound housing as reported 

1 21 in studies by Jenkins and O'Hara. ' Jenkins estimated that 12.5 percent 

of the U.S. population resides in substandard housing, primarily in metropolitan 

ghettos. O'Hara estimated that 10 percent of all children younger than 6-years 

21 live in deteriorating homes in urban areas. Although the estimated percentages 

of unsound housing reported by Jenkins and O'Hara were higher than PEI's best 

estimate, they were similar to the percentage of renter-occupied unsound housing 

in the Northeast reported by the American Housing Survey. The number of owneroccupied housing units, however, was approximately twice the number of renter20 occupied homes. Because the estimates of Jenkins and O'Hara were for urban 

ghetto areas where the majority of housing units were not owner-occupied, PEI 

assumed that the national and regional American Housing Survey percentages of 

unsound housing, which include owner-occupied and renter-occupied homes were 

reasonable estimates and probably more representative on a national level than 

the estimates by Jenkins and O'Hara. The estimates of Jenkins and O'Hara may, 

however, be more representative of the population around point sources of 

renter- and owner-occupied housing. 

To calculate the numbers of unsound homes and unsound LPH's, PEI used 

Equations 5 and 6: 

Unsound H8 Q = (% unsound)(H8Q) (5) 

Unsound LPH8Q = (55 unsound)(LPH8Q) (6) 
P.17 

where HgQ was the number of occupied housing units in 1980. Equations 7 and 

8 were used to estimate the number of children who resided in unsound homes 

and unsound LPH's in 1980: 

Children in unsound H g 0 = (unsound HQ0)(children/household) (7) 

Children in unsound LPHg 0 = (unsound LPH8Q)(children/household). (8) 

To improve the estimates produced by PEI's model, the percentages of unsound occupied housing units classified by age of construction should be determined. Because of a lack of information, PEI assumed that the percentage 

of unsound housing was identical for all ages of homes. Because it is probable 

that the rate of deterioration is higher in homes built prior to 1940 and lower 

in homes built after 1970, the effects of the age of housing units on the percentage of unsound housing should be negligible. Therefore, the American 

Housing Survey percentages of unsound homes appears to be reasonable. Based on 

the literature, the other variables estimated by PEI in Equations 1 through 8 

were assumed to be accurate. 

10 
P.18 

SECTION 3 

ESTIMATES PRODUCED BY MODEL 

Table 6 presents the national and regional model estimates of the number 

of occupied homes, LPH's, unsound homes, and unsound LPH's and the number of 

children residing in homes in each of these four categories of homes. National 

"best" estimates of the number of LPH's, unsound homes, and unsound LPH's and the 

number of children living in these homes were determined by using the estimated 

percentages of lead-based paints in housing units according to age of construction and the American Housing Survey percentage of unsound homes with 

peeling paint. Upper and lower bounds were calculated for the national estimates 

from the range of percentages of homes with lead-based paints reported in the 

literature and from the range of percentages of unsound housing presented by 

the American Housing Survey. On a regional basis, PEI calculated only best 

estimates of the number of LPH's, unsound homes, and unsound LPH's and the number of children living in each. 

Of the 80,390,000 occupied national housing units:in 1980, 25.8 percent 

were built prior to 1940, 28.6 percent were built between 1940 and 1959, 33.1 

percent were built between 1960 and 1974, and 12.5 percent were built between 

1975 and 1980. It is estimated that in 1980 approximately 52 percent of the 

2 

occupied homes in the United States contain >0.7 mg lead/cm in painted surfaces, 

a level considered hazardous to young children. The estimated number of LPH's 

ranges from 21,529,000 to 47,315,000; PEI's best estimate is 41,964,000. The estimated number of unsound homes in the United States ranges from 3,055,000 to 

4,984,000; and PEI's best estimate is 3,778,000. The 3,778,000 homes that 

are classified as unsound because of peeling paint accounted for 4.7 percent of 

the total occupied housing units in the United States. The number of unsound 

LPH's varies from 818,000 to 2,933,000; PEI's best estimate is 1,972,000. 

The number of unsound LPH's with peeling paint ranges from 1,012,000 to 

2,223,000 with PEI's best estimate being 1,972,000. The number of unsound 

LPH's with holes in walls ranges from 1,335,000 to 2,933,000; PEI's best 

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estimate is 2,602,000. The number of unsound LPH's with broken or cracked 

plaster ranges from 818,000 to 1,798,000 with PEI's best estimate of 

1,595,000. As indicated previously, an unsound home could contain holes, 

peeling paint, and broken plaster. PEI's best estimate of unsound housing 

was defined as homes containing peeling paint. According to PEI's best estimate, 1,972,000 unsound LPH's account for 2.4 percent of occupied housing units 

in the United States. Unsound LPH's represent the largest lead hazard to 

children because of the increased accessibility of peeling lead-based paints 

for ingestion by children under 7 years of age. The estimates in Table 6 suggest 

that the number of LPH's and unsound LPH's increases with the age of the 

dwellings. 

To determine the potential exposure to lead among children residing in 

LPH's, PEI estimated the number of children residing in occupied housing units, 

LPH's, unsound dwellings, and unsound LPH's. In 1980, there were 23,071,000 

children under the age of 7 living in the United States. The estimated number 

of children residing in LPH's ranges from 6,179,000 to 13,579,000 with PEI's best 

estimate of 12,043,000. These 12,043,000 children represent 52 percent of the 

U.S. children 6 years old and younger. The estimated number of children residing 

in unsound housing ranges from 877,000 to 1,430,000; PEI's best estimate is 

1,084,000. This best estimate of 1,084,000 is based on the number of children 

who reside in unsound homes with peeling paint. The number of children living in 

unsound LPH's ranges from 235,000 to 842,000, with PEI's best estimate being 

567,000. The number of children residing in unsound LPH's with peeling paint 

ranges from 290,000 to 638,000; PEI's best estimate is 567,000. The number of 

children residing in unsound LPH's with holes in walls ranges from 383,000 to 

842,000 with PEI's best estimate being 747,000; and the number of children living 

in unsound LPH's with broken or cracked plaster ranges from 235,000 to 

516,000 with PEI's best estimate of 458,000. 

A comparison of regional estimates of housing and children residing in the 

housing indicates the Northeast has the largest number and percentages of unsound 

LPH's and children who live in unsound LPH's, and the West has the smallest. 

Of 4,439,000 children in the Northeast, 65 percent reside in LPH's; 6 percent, 

in unsound housing; and 3.9 percent, in unsound LPH's with peeling paint. Of 

6,171,000 children in the Midwest, 57.8 percent reside in LPH's; 3.9 percent, 

in unsound housing; and 2.2 percent in unsound LPH's. Of 7,865,000 children in 

15 
P.23 

the Sduth, 43.6 percent reside in LPH's; 3.8 percent, in unsound housing; and 

1.6 percent, in unsound LPH's. Of 4,592,000 children in the West, 44.5 percent 

reside in LPH's; 3.8 percent, in unsound homes; and 1.7 percent, in unsound LPH's. 

The regional estimates are assumed to be reasonable because the Northeast 

has a greater prevalence of older homes concentrated in urban areas and the 

West and South have newer homes with fewer homes built prior to 1940. 

Table 7 compares PEI's best national estimates with estimates cited in 

five studies. PEI's estimates are lower than most of the estimates presented 

in the studies. The upper bound of Lin-Fu's estimated range of the number of 

LPH's in the United States is in agreement with the number of LPH's estimated 

2 

by PEI. In the Lin-Fu study, homes that contained >2.0 mg lead/cm in painted 

surfaces are classified as LPH's; therefore, the upper bound is a reasonable 

2 

estimate of the quantity of LPH s with >0.7 mg lead/cm . The estimates of 

unsound housing and children in unsound housing presented in studies by Berger, 

Gilsinn, Jenkins, and O'Hara are greater than the PEI estimates, but none of 

them defined unsound housing and the studies are older. PEI defines unsound 

housing precisely as homes that have peeling paint. Because PEI provides documentation of variables in the model and uses more recent census data, the PEI 

estimates of unsound housing units and children residing in unsound housing 

units are assumed to be more accurate than the estimates presented by Berger, 

Gilsinn, Jenkins, and O'Hara. 

16 
P.24 

TABLE 7. COMPARISON OF PEI's NATIONAL ESTIMATES WITH THOSE 

PRESENTED IN THE LITERATURE 

Study 

PEI 

Q 

Berger 

Lin-Fu15 

Gilsinn19 

Jenkins 

O'Hara21 

Lead in 

painted 

surface 

2 

>0.7 mg/cm 

2 

>2.0 mg/cm 

1% 

Number of 

LPH's, 

lOOO's 

41,964 

39,000 to 

40,000 

Number 

of unsound, 

homes, 

lOOd's 

3,778 

7,000 

7,750 

Number 

of unsound 

LPH's, 

1000's 

1,972 

Number 

children in 

LPH's, 

1000's. 

12,043 

Number 

children in 

unsound 

homes, 

1000's 

1,084 

2,500 

2,884 

1,500 

Number 

children 

in unsound 

LPH's, 

1000's 

567 

17 
P.25 

SECTION 4 

DISCUSSION OF MODEL ESTIMATES AND EXPOSURE OF CHILDREN 

TO LEAD FROM PAINTS 

The model produces estimates of the number of occupied homes, LPH's, 

unsound homes, and unsound LPH's and the number of children under 7 years of 

age who reside in homes in each of these four categories. Exposure of children to lead-based paints is highest in unsound LPH's that have peeling paint; 

however, children who live in sound LPH's with intact lead-based paints also 

may be exposed to lead. Among the residents in the 41,964,000 LPH's are an 

estimated 12,043,000 children who are at some risk of exposure to lead-based 

paints, and the residents of 1,972,000 unsound LPH's are estimated to include 

567,000 children who are at greatest risk of exposure to lead-based paints. 

PEI assumes that the actual number of children exposed to lead-based 

paints in the United States ranges somewhere between the estimated 567,000 

children who reside in unsound LPH's and the estimated 12,043,000 children 

who reside in LPH's. The estimate of children residing in unsound LPH's appears 

to be a reasonable representation of the number of children exposed to lead-based 

paints. The estimated number of children who reside in unsound LPH's may be 

lower than the actual number of children who reside in unsound LPH's, however, 

because the model does not calculate the percentage of unsound housing for each 

of the four age groups of homes. Because of a lack of data in the literature, 

PEI used the same percentages of unsound housing for all ages of homes. The 

estimated number of children who reside in LPH's, however, is probably significantly greater than the actual number of children exposed to lead-based paints. 

Not all of the children living in LPH's with intact painted surfaces are 

exposed to lead-based paint, and the percentage of children who are exposed is 

not indicated in the literature. Therefore, PEI presents a range of estimates 

of the number of children residing in LPH's who are exposed to lead from leadbased paints. 

18 
P.26 

In addition to exposures in their homes, children also may be exposed to 

lead-based paints in day-care centers or in the homes of sitters. In a telephone survey of lead poisoning prevention programs in selected cities and 

States, PEI found no evidence of lead-based paints in day-care centers or 

22 23 schools. ' In one city, however, some children were regularly exposed to 

23 

lead-based paint in private homes of sitters in inner city areas. The homes 

of children appear to be their primary source of regular exposure to lead-based 

paints. Therefore, the model estimates provide reasonable representation of 

the exposure of children to lead-based paints. 

19 
P.27 

REFERENCES 

1. Jenkins, D. Design of Pollutant-Oriented Integrated Monitoring Systems, 

A Test Case: Environmental Lead. EPA-600/4-76-018; U.S. Environmental 

Protection Agency, Las Vegas, Nevada, April 1976. 

2. Center for Disease Control. Preventing Lead Poisoning in Young Children. U. S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia, 

January 1985. 

3. Billick, I., and V. Gray. Lead-Based Paint Poisoning Research, Review, 

and Evaluation, 1971-1977. HUD RP-809. U.S. Department of Housing and 

Urban Development, Washington, D.C , July 1978. 

4. Gilbert, C , et al. A Comparison of Lead Hazards in the Housing Environment of Lead Poisoned Children Versus Nonpoisoned Controls. Journal of 

Environmental Science and Health, A14(3):145-168, 1979. 

5. Galke, W., et al. Environmental Determinants of Lead Burdens in Children. 

Presented at the International Conference on Heavy Metals in the Environment, Toronto, Canada, October 1975. 

6. Personal communication by Alicia Ferdo of PEI with Vernon Houk of the 

Center for Disease Control on July 8, 1985. 

7. Stark, A., et al. The Relationship of Environmental Lead to Blood-Lead 

Levels in Children. Environmental Research, 27:372-383, 1982. 

8. Berger, H. The NBS Lead Paint Poisoning Project: Housing and Other 

Aspects. NBS Tech Note 759. National Bureau of Standards, Washington, 

D.C , February 1973. 

9. National Academy of Sciences Committee on Lead in the Human Environment. Lead in the Human Environment. Washington, D.C , 1980. 

10. Information Please Almanac 1985. 38th Edition. Houghton Mifflin Co., 

Boston, 1985. 

11. Detailed Population Characteristics, United States Summary, Section B: 

Regions, 1980 Census of Population. PC 80-1-D1-B. Census Bureau, 

Washington, D.C , March 1984. 

20 
P.28 

12.. Census Bureau. Detailed Housing Characteristics, United States Summary, 

1980 Census of Housing; HC 80-1-B1. Washington, D.C , December 1983. 

13. Census Bureau. Metropolitan Housing Characteristics, United States 

Summary, 1980 Census of Housing. HC 80-2-1. Washington, D.C , March 1984. 

14. Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Lead: Assessment of Scientific and Technical Information. OAQPS Draft Staff Paper. 

Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, April 1985. 

15. Lin-Fu, J. Childhood Lead Poisoning: The National Perspective. Presented at Childhood Lead Poisoning: Is It Still a Problem, A Symposium 

for Health Care Providers, Cincinnati, Ohio, June 25, 1985. 

16. Shier, D., and W. Hall. Analysis of Housing Data Collected in a LeadBased Paint Survey in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Part I. NBSIR 77-1250. 

National Bureau of Standards, Washington, D.-C, March 1977. 

17. Arizona Department of Health Services. Lead-Based Paint Report of Findings to the State Legislature. December 20, 1976. 

18. Personal communication from David Nordmeyer, Registered Environmental 

State Specialist for Minnesota, July 1985. 

19. Gilsinn, J. Estimate of the Nature and Extent of Lead Paint Poisoning 

in the United States. NBS Tech Note 764. National Bureau of Standards, 

Washington, D.C , December 1972. 

20. Personal communication from American Housing Survey, August 1985. 

21. O'Hara, D. Social Factors in the Recurrence of Increased Lead Absorption 

in Children. In: Lead Absorption in Children, J. J. Chisholm, Jr. and 

D. M. O'Hara (Eds.), Urban and Schwarzenberg, Baltimore, Maryland, 1982. 

22. Personal communication from Cato Kirksey, Environmental Health Division 

Director, Lead Poisoning Prevention Program, Chicago, Illinois, July 

1985. 

23. Personal communication from Ella Witherspoon, Lead Poisoning Prevention 

Program, Washington, D.C , July 1985. 

21