Prepared for:

Prepared by:

Proprietary and Confidential

September 2013

All Aboard Florida 

Ridership and 

Revenue Study

SUMMARY REPORT
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This Summary Report was prepared by The Louis Berger Group, Inc. (LBG) for the benefit of Florida East Coast Industries, LLC (Client) pursuant to 

a ridership and revenue study commissioned under a Professional Services Agreement dated January 1, 2012. The study is also documented in a 

more detailed report of methods and findings prepared for the Client.

LBG has performed its services to the level customary for competent and prudent engineers performing such services at the time and place 

where the services to our Client were provided. LBG makes or intends no other warranty, express or implied.

Certain assumptions regarding future trends and forecasts may not materialize, which may affect actual future performance and market 

demand, so actual results are uncertain and may vary significantly from the projections developed as part of this assignment. The data used in 

the study was current as April 2013, and may not now represent current conditions.

Unless you are the Client, or a party to a fully executed Reliance Letter Agreement with LBG concerning this project (Relying Party), you may not 

rely on the information, data, and descriptions in this report as reasonably necessary for evaluation of this project. The Summary Report is 

provided for information purposes only. LBG makes no representations or warranty that the information in the Summary Report is sufficient to 

provide all the information, evaluations and analyses necessary to satisfy the entire due diligence needs of a Relying Party.
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1. Introduction

Florida East Coast Industries, Inc. (FECI), the parent company to All Aboard Florida – Operations LLC 

(AAF), commissioned The Louis Berger Group, Inc. (LBG) to develop an investment grade ridership and 

revenue forecast for the re-introduction of passenger rail service on the existing rail right of way along 

Florida’s east coast (FEC Corridor). This 

report provides a summary of the 

methods and findings of that forecast 

study. The passenger rail service

proposed by AAF, will be a privately 

owned and operated, intercity service 

that is intended to initially connect key 

cities in Southeast Florida (Miami, Fort 

Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach) with 

Orlando in Central Florida.

Each year, travelers make hundreds of 

millions of trips between the 

communities of Southeast and Central 

Florida, making the region one of the 

most actively traveled areas in the United 

States. The proposed AAF service will 

operate on a corridor running directly 

through some of the most densely 

populated communities in the State of 

Florida with stations located proximate to 

major sites and connected to local transit 

hubs (bus, commuter rail, etc.).

The restoration of passenger rail to serve 

the Miami-Orlando corridor has been 

carefully studied in the past by a number 

of public agencies and has long been 

recognized as a viable and needed service 

given the scale and demographics of the 

region, level of travel activity and the 

existing and growing congestion on 

Florida’s highways. Southeast Florida is 

the fourth most populous urbanized 

region in the U.S. The City of Orlando is 

the most visited city in the nation while Miami is home to the world’s largest cruise port and the travel 

gateway to Latin America. However, no intercity rail alternative comparable to the proposed AAF 

service exists currently. These factors, together with several of the key findings by LBG in conducting 

this study, support the potential for substantial ridership for the proposed AAF service.

Figure 1: Proposed Route and Stations
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2. Summary of Key Findings 

With frequent service between city centers within the corridor, AAF offers the prospect of substantial 

time savings to current users of auto, bus, traditional rail and even air. To determine how these time 

savings would alter travel behavior and generate ridership and revenue for AAF, LBG undertook a 

detailed examination of current travel activity and behavior, and conducted surveys that determined 

traveler preferences and willingness to pay. Best practices in discrete choice analysis and travel network 

modeling were employed and findings were tested and referenced to previous studies. The investment 

grade forecasts prepared for this feasibility study were intended to be conservative in nature. The 

analysis revealed that introduction of AAF service would complement existing modes of travel and draw 

a substantial number of business and non-business travelers.

Key Findings

The thorough study effort resulted in the following key findings: 

 Substantial “Addressable Market” – Hundreds of millions of trips are taken annually between 

Southeast and Central Florida. LBG’s study included a determination of the portion of these 

total trips that both originate and terminate within a defined distance of a proposed AAF station 

(a station “catchment area”). The AAF addressable market is assumed to include only those 

trips beginning and ending within station catchment areas. Based upon detailed analysis, LBG 

concluded that the addressable market for AAF intercity service amounts to over 50 million trips 

made by individuals annually.

 Challenging Intercity Trip – At a distance of approximately 230 miles, the journey from Orlando 

to Miami is relatively short for air travel (with total air travel time disproportionately long for 

the distance given airport security and delays); and relatively long for an auto trip, where traffic 

congestion can make the four to five hour trip unpleasant and unreliable. Travel time by car 

between Orlando and Miami on the I-95 route is generally 4 hour and 15 minutes, along the 

Florida Turnpike route it is general 3 hours and 50 minutes. Further, travel times during 

congested peak periods can be substantially greater. Travel volumes on key highways 

connecting Central and Southeast Florida are expected to exceed capacity by 2030, resulting in 

further delays and reduction in reliability.

 Demonstrated Market Travel Growth – Intercity travel on the Florida Turnpike between Orlando 

and Miami has grown by an average of 3.5 percent per year since 2000 and air travel between 

these cities has seen annual growth of 3.2 percent during the same period. LBG long-term 

growth rates for the AAF system are conservative and are below these historical travel levels.

 Demonstrated Market Demographic Growth – In the past 30 years, population in the market 

area has grown by an annual average of 2.5 percent and employment has grown by an annual 

average of 3 percent. Within one mile of proposed AAF stations, annual population growth has 

ranged from 2 percent to 5 percent since 1990 indicating strong growth in the urban core at the 

heart of the AAF alignment. 

 No Comparable Service – AAF can provide travel time savings of 25% to 50% when compared to 

existing surface modes (auto, bus and rail). With a journey time of around three hours from 

Orlando to Miami, AAF’s proposed service is competitive with air on door-to-door travel times. 

There is no comparable service to AAF for intercity travel in the existing market.
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 Long-Standing Interest – Given the profile of the travel market and the central location of the 

rail line, there has been long-standing interest among stakeholders and the public in developing 

passenger service on the Florida East Coast corridor for decades. 

Estimated Ridership

In connection with the investment grade evaluation, LBG prepared estimates for annual ridership in a 

Base Case forecast. LBG also developed a Business Plan Case that accounts for certain elements 

important to future ridership potential, which are not included in the Base Case. Following LBG’s 

forecast, AAF management further refined its strategies and goals for ridership and revenue which are 

reflected in a Management Case scenario. These forecast scenarios can be summarized as follows:

1) Base Case – The Base Case scenario provides a conservative outlook for implementation of AAF 

service. The scenario does not include potential future changes to the proposed AAF service, 

such as additional future station locations; and does not include consideration of future changes 

to the relevant transportation network that are subject to some level of uncertainty, such as 

impact of the growth in congestion on major highways and arterials in the market area, or the 

impact of potential direct connections with local transit improvements planned by local and 

regional agencies. 

2) Business Plan Case – An alternative scenario was prepared to account for elements of the AAF 

business plan under development at the time the forecast was prepared and known to LBG; and 

to reflect the impact of a number of specific items not included in the Base Case. The Business 

Plan Case includes: (i) future connections to other transit services, such as SunRail in Central 

Florida and the WAVE Streetcar in Fort Lauderdale; (ii) marketing initiatives targeted to resort 

customers and travel arrangers to enhance ridership. 

3) Management Case – The Business Plan Case does not include the impact of certain strategies 

that are commonly employed by management of similar consumer-oriented rail operating 

companies and that could potentially further increase ridership and/or revenue such as (i) 

revenue yield management strategies; (ii) frequent rider loyalty programs; (iii) block ticket 

agreements with resorts and educational institutions; and (iv) plans for further local transit 

connections not known at the time of preparation of the Business Plan Case forecast. Following 

the preparation of the Base and Business Plan Case forecasts by LBG, AAF management 

developed an estimate of the ridership and revenue impact of these strategies through market 

soundings, discussions with regional businesses and institutions, and discussions with rail 

operators. Management Case estimates are presented herein to illustrate AAF management’s 

expectation for the operation of passenger service.

Ridership and revenue forecast for each of the cases noted above are summarized in Table 1 below for 

2019, the first year after stabilized ridership is expected to be achieved. Following this summary table, 

additional information is provided for the Base Case and Business Plan Case scenarios.
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Table 1: AAF Ridership Forecast Scenarios, 2019

Base Case

Short Distance (1) Long Distance (2) Total

Ridership: 1,944,500 1,526,300 3,470,800 

Business Plan Case

Short Distance (1) Long Distance (2) Total

Ridership: 2,010,900 2,002,100 4,013,000 

Management Case

Short Distance (1) Long Distance (2) Total

Ridership: 2,671,556 2,434,300 5,105,856

(1) Short distance trips = Miami - Ft. Lauderdale, Miami-West Palm 

Beach, Ft. Lauderdale - West Palm Beach

(2) Long distance trips = South east Florida – Orlando

Under the Business Plan Case, the number of riders on AAF is expected to total over 4.01 million in 2019. 

This volume of riders, about 11,000 per day, includes riders who now travel by other modes, but would 

find AAF more desirable than auto, rail, and bus services now connecting the cities. As travel demand in 

the corridor grows, LBG projects that ridership will grow to over 5.45 million riders in 2030. Overall 

growth in the number of riders on AAF is expected to average 2.7% per year, keeping pace with the 

growth of the overall travel market and population and employment within Southeast Florida and 

Central Florida.

Table 2: Base Case and Plan Case Annual Ridership Scenarios

As shown in the forecast chart presented above, we expect ridership for the initial years of AAF to start 

at relatively low levels and grow to a stabilized volume after three years. This reflects a conservative 

 -

 1,000

 2,000

 3,000

 4,000

 5,000

 6,000

Annual Ridership (in thousands)

Annual Ridership

Base Case Plan Case
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assumption for “ramp-up,” a period of time during which ridership is building up to long-term forecast 

levels as travelers become acquainted with the new rail service and adjust their trip-making habits. To 

ensure a conservative approach to estimation of initial year ridership and revenue, we have assumed a 

three year ramp-up period: the first year at 30 percent of forecasted volumes, second year at 60 

percent, and third year at 80 percent of the forecast. This assumption is comparable and conservative 

when compared to previous rail service forecasts.

Introduction of a new mode of travel, particularly premium rail service which is more convenient and 

improves travel time, can often encourage travelers to make trips they may not have made in the 

absence of the new service. This is called induced ridership. Previous studies have found that the 

introduction of intercity rail service can result in levels of induced travel ranging from 5 percent to 30 

percent. The highest levels of induced travel have been observed on high speed rail services serving 

multiple markets over distances of 200 to 500 miles. Our evaluation of induced ridership in the Base 

Case for AAF includes the potential for a 9 percent increase in trips and a total of 350,000 induced 

passengers have been included in our estimate for 2019.

In the Business Plan Case, AAF business development plans also include marketing arrangements with 

resorts, cruise operators, and travel arrangers. These arrangements could also be expected to enhance 

ridership above the levels shown in the Base Case forecast.

Estimated Market Share

The central station locations offered by AAF will allow the railroad to provide an alternative source of 

transportation for travelers with origins or destinations near the urban cores of the three major cities in 

Southeast Florida and near major activity centers in Central Florida. The forecast shows that the 

addition of the AAF service will complement the existing modes of travel between these core locations. 

The forecasts of our Base Case and Business Plan Case indicates that after the initial ramp up period, 

AAF will serve approximately 7 and 8 percent, respectively, of the overall market for travel between 

Southeast Florida and Central Florida (long-distance market).

Figure 4: Estimated Market Share and Ridership Composition

Estimated Market Share Ridership Composition
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Estimate of Auto Vehicle Trips Diverted to AAF

As noted in the foregoing discussion on the Estimated Market Share, AAF service is expected to draw a 

substantial portion of its ridership from trips that would otherwise be made by auto vehicles. This 

percentage is expected to range from 65 percent to 93 percent depending on the origin and destination 

of the trips, distance traveled, and the alternative modes of travel available. To provide input to the 

evaluation of the environmental effects of AAF service, an estimate of auto vehicle trips diverted to AAF 

(and therefore removed from the roadways) was developed for each forecast year. Table 3 shows the 

results of this estimate. In the initial year of service under the Base Case forecast, over 335,000 cars will 

be removed from roadways. In 2030, the number of vehicles diverted to AAF will exceed 1.345 million. 

The additional ridership estimated for the Business Plan Case and Management Case forecast scenarios 

is not expected to result in additional auto diversions. This is because the additional sources of ridership 

in these cases is best characterized as new or induced trips, or trips diverted from existing public modes 

of travel. Table 4 shows the assumption utilized in the auto diversion calculation including the 

proportion of auto diversions estimated by station pair and the average auto vehicle occupancy for short 

and long distance service used to estimate auto vehicle trips from total person-trips.

Table 3: Estimate of Auto Vehicle Trips Diverted to AAF

Short Distance Service

(within Southeast Florida)

Long Distance Service

(between Southeast Florida 

and Central Florida) Total AAF Service

Base Case

2016 209,896 125,733 335,628 

2019 723,005 442,937 1,165,942 

2030 815,471 530,228 1,345,699 

Business Plan Case

2016 213,268 125,733 339,001 

2019 747,689 442,937 1,190,626 

2030 943,538 604,069 1,547,607 

Management Case

2016 213,268 125,733 339,001 

2019 747,689 442,937 1,190,626 

2030 943,538 604,069 1,547,607 
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Table 4: Assumptions for Diversions from Autos Vehicle Trips

Station Pairs

Riders Diverted 

from Auto as a 

Proportion of 

Total Ridership

Estimated Vehicle 

Occupancy

Short Distance (within SEF)

Miami / Fort Lauderdale 0.84 2.2

Miami / West Palm Beach 0.93 2.2

Fort Lauderdale / West Palm Beach 0.69 2.2

Long Distance (SEF-CF)

Miami / Orlando 0.65 2.38

Fort Lauderdale / Orlando 0.65 2.38

West Palm Beach / Orlando 0.76 2.38
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3. Overview of the Investment Grade Study Process

An investment grade ridership study is one of the most rigorous and thorough forecasting processes. 

Investment grade studies are common in the finance and project development industries. Below is a 

summary of the key characteristics of LBG’s investment grade process:

 New Primary Source Research – Over 1,800 stated-preference surveys and 10,800 origin and 

destination surveys were conducted to confirm travel behavior, preferences, and willingness to 

pay.

 Independent approach – The forecasting model was constructed from the bottom up using data 

gathered from regional planning agencies, stakeholder organizations, and recognized 

commercial sources.

 Accepted methods – Best practices in discrete choice analysis and network travel demand 

modeling were employed.

 Critical evaluation of economic growth assumptions – Outlook for growth in travel market was 

carefully evaluated and conservative assumptions were adopted.

 Thorough documentation – Detailed data collection, evaluation, and forecasting procedures

were followed.

 Benchmarking and validation – Forecast assumptions and findings were validated against 

previous reports. Alternative mode choice models were developed and evaluated against known 

travel patterns. 

 Peer review – Study process and findings were reviewed by Steer Davies Gleave, a highly 

respected global transportation forecasting firm. SDG performed an ongoing review of LBGs 

work and provided comments and suggestions along the way. LBG incorporated changes based 

on SDG’s comments and suggestions resulting in updated versions of the results and models.

4. Study Purpose and Objective

Planning for implementation of AAF service in Southeast and Central Florida is well advanced. 

Preliminary engineering and operations planning have been conducted, station program development 

and design are underway and environmental review is partially complete with the remaining elements in 

progress. At this phase in the project development process, a thorough understanding of demand 

potential can contribute to the finalization of business planning activities that are underway. The 

objective of this study is to provide FECI with an independent overview of ridership and revenue that 

will inform and advance the project planning efforts and decisions of potential investors and funding 

partners.

The study follows the objectives of an investment grade evaluation appropriate for project planning and 

development. It includes new primary source research for the understanding of travel patterns and 

travel behavior; a critical evaluation of input assumptions; and demonstration of the sensitivity of the 

forecast to those assumptions. A summary description of the study design and how it meets the 

objectives of an investment grade evaluation is presented in this report.
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5. Study Process

To determine the extent and magnitude of the demand for a new mode of travel between Central 

Florida and Southeast Florida, LBG undertook a thorough assessment of the existing and potential future 

intercity travel market, the attributes of the current modes of travel in the corridor, and prospects for 

future growth. The study included the following key activities.

 Research to Establish Market Size and Catchment Area – Residents and visitors to cities in the 

corridor make millions of trips per year, but only a select portion of these trips involve travel 

between the central business districts and surrounding activity centers that would be served by 

AAF stations. To identify the addressable market, LBG gathered extensive data on current levels 

of travel by auto, rail, air, and bus; and several sources of information on traveler origin and 

destination patterns. The research established a market of over 50 million intercity trips per 

year in areas reasonably served by the stations. These findings on the size and characteristics of 

the market are consistent with previous studies undertaken for rail projects in Florida, and 

provide a conservative base for the demand forecast.

 Identification of Travel Network and Competing Modes of Travel – The demand forecasting 

process also requires a thorough understanding of the travel network and the schedule, journey 

time, and cost attributes of all modes of travel using the network. This report outlines the 

assumptions and data sources LBG used to establish the highway, rail, and air travel network. 

The report also documents the attributes of each mode of travel used as inputs to the demand 

forecast.

 Assessment of the Prospect for Growth in Travel – An investment grade forecast requires 

thorough examination of the prospect for growth in the overall travel market. By gathering data 

from regional transportation planning agencies and other accepted public and commercial 

sources, LBG established conservative and reasonable growth rates for the overall market based 

on observed trends in each segment. 

 Primary Research on Traveler 

Preferences and Willingness to Pay 

– When travelers choose to make a 

journey by auto or by rail they 

weigh the time and money cost of 

travel and make a choice based in 

part on their travel budget and 

willingness to pay. Travel behavior 

is also influenced by trip purpose 

(e.g., business, leisure, commute, 

airport access) and other factors 

such as party size and need for a 

vehicle at the destination. The AAF

system is an entirely new type of 

service for the region whose unique 

features can only be tested in 

hypothetical scenarios that pit AAF

against other competing modes. The current state-of-the-practice uses mode choice Stated 

Preference surveys (SP) as the basis for understanding how individuals (or groups of individuals) 

Figure 2: Stated Preference Survey - The study featured a Stated 

Preference survey to determine information on travel patterns, 

preferences, and traveler willingness to pay for travel time savings.
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value individual attributes, such as access time, in-vehicle travel time, headways, and cost - of a 

transportation choice. 

 Demand Forecasting – The LBG study team employed best practices in discrete choice analysis 

and network travel demand forecasting to determine diversions from existing modes of travel to 

AAF and ridership volumes on the AAF system by city-pair segment. SP survey data was used to 

develop estimates of the AAF market share and is the basis of the AAF ridership forecast. 

 Sensitivity Testing – The report provides the findings of sensitivity tests demonstrating the 

effect of changes in key forecast assumptions (e.g., AAF fare prices) on ridership and revenue. 

These sensitivity tests are used to establish the stability of the forecast model and inform 

project planning.

6. Key Assumptions

To develop a conservative approach for forecasting AAF ridership that is appropriate for evaluation by 

lenders and investors during the planning stage of project development, the study team made several 

key assumptions for the Base Case. As planning for the project advances, these assumptions are likely 

to be altered or enhanced resulting in further refinement of the ridership and revenue forecast. To 

reflect the full potential for enhancements to ridership, LBG has been commissioned to provide FECI 

with a separate Business Plan Case forecast reflecting aspects of the AAF team’s business planning. The 

conservative assumptions used in the Base Case presented in this report, include the following:

 The forecast study area is limited to the extent of the metropolitan areas in Central and 

Southeast Florida. Transfer connections to existing transit and bus services are assumed but 

future connections such as Sun Rail in Central Florida may enhance AAF ridership.

 The forecast team has utilized a base year and future year auto travel trip table prepared on 

behalf of a third party for general application in the study of interregional projects in the I-95 

corridor including Florida. The study team has evaluated the trip table to ensure that it is 

consistent with the origin and destination patterns and assumptions for trip growth used by the 

MPOs in the corridor. Trips tables for other modes of travel were based on information 

obtained from MPOs and other relevant planning agencies and operators.

 Station market catchment areas and trip filters were developed to establish reasonable 

boundaries for the addressable market and to eliminate illogical station access patterns. This is 

the basis for establishing the size of the candidate market at over 50 million trips per year.

 Growth in the future auto travel market was assumed to keep pace with the regional outlook on 

population and household growth. LBG took the conservative assumption that any growth in 

income would not be considered in trip making. LBG utilized the official forecasts of Amtrak, TriRail and the Federal Aviation Administration for rail and air modes of travel. These are 

conservative assumptions for growth outlook that are based on current fundamentals of the 

travel market. Future growth in income that outpaces the demographic rate of change, would 

most likely result in increased intercity travel overall and increased ridership for AAF in 

particular.

 The estimation of the future travel market does not include any changes in the location of 

households or employment related to transit-oriented development in the areas surrounding 

the stations.
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 Congested auto travel times were accounted for in estimating station access and long-distance 

auto travel times. The AAF forecast is not predicated on future growth in congestion, however. 

This is a conservative approach as it is very likely that congestion within and between the 

regions will increase, making non-highway modes of travel more competitive.

 Induced demand potential was based on a method of evaluating the improvement in the 

generalized cost of travel that has been accepted in other studies for high speed transportation 

in the U.S. As a novel form of transportation in Florida, AAF is likely to experience ridership 

demand for tourism and leisure travel based on its convenience and amenities. For the purpose

of developing a conservative base case forecast, cooperative marketing arrangements and 

potential tourist and convention marketing arrangements that are part of AAF business planning 

were not incorporated in the Base Case Forecast but were addressed in the Business Plan Case.

7. Forecast Sensitivity Testing

LBG conducted a variety of sensitivity tests to identify sources of forecast risk and evaluate the Base 

Case Forecast. Key findings include the following.

 Overall, a decrease in AAF running time of 10 percent (i.e., a reduction of 20 minutes in the 

running time from Miami to Orlando) could be expected to result in an increase of just over 7 

percent in ridership. In the SEF market a similar decrease of 10 percent in run time (7 minutes) 

would result in a 5 percent increase in ridership. Should the running time need to be increased 

from the levels assumed in this study, a similar magnitude of decrease in ridership could be 

expected. 

 An increase in the frequency of service by 20 percent (over the one departure per hour base 

assumption) would be expected to result in a 5.4 percent increase in ridership in the Miami to 

West Palm Beach short distance market, and a 1.4 percent increase for the longer distance city

pairs.

 An increase in the amount of time to access an AAF station by 20 percent for long distance 

travel (due, for example, to congestion on local roadways) would be expected to result in an 8 

percent decrease in ridership. For travelers making trips on AAF within Southeast Florida the 

impact would be greater: a 13 percent decrease in ridership.

 For long distance travel, an increase in auto travel time of 20 percent (attributable to an 

increase in intercity and intracity roadway congestion in the region) would be expected to result 

in an 8 percent increase in AAF ridership. For the short distance market where journey times are 

lower, the increase in AAF ridership would be 4 percent. If the increase in travel time were only 

to apply to intercity auto travel (in a scenario with heavy congestion on freeways but with little 

change in access times to stations via local roadways, for example), the increase in AAF ridership 

would be 16 percent in the long distance market and 12 percent for short distance riders.

 An increase in fuel prices of 20 percent would be expected to result in a 1.4 percent increase in 

AAF ridership for both long and short distance markets. Should AAF fares also increase to pass 

on the cost of higher AAF fuel related operating costs, there would likely be no net increase in 

ridership.
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 An increase in air fares of 20 percent would be expected to result in a 1.7 percent increase in 

AAF ridership. Should air fares decrease by a similar magnitude, a decrease in AAF ridership of 

2.6 percent would be expected.

8. Intercity Travel in Florida

With a population of 5.56 million in 2010, the South Florida metropolitan area is the most populous 

metropolitan area in the Southeastern United States and the eighth most populous metro area in the 

United States.1 AAF will connect the downtowns of the region’s major cities: Miami, Fort Lauderdale, 

and West Palm Beach. Central Florida’s main city, Orlando and the surrounding region are home to over 

2.5 million residents and 1.5 million jobs.2 A leader nationally in resort and recreation activities, the 

region attracted 51 million visitors in 2010.3

According to Texas Transportation 

Institute’s 2010 Urban Mobility Report, 

Central and South Florida highways are 

the most congested in the State, which 

results in millions of hours of travel 

delay and excessive fuel consumption 

and pollutant emissions. State and 

local agencies have been active in 

evaluating alternatives to the severe 

congestion on north-south roadway 

links. In June 2010, FDOT prepared the 

I-95 Transportation Alternatives Study, 

in consultation with the Department of 

Law Enforcement, the Department of 

Environmental Protection, the Division 

of Emergency Management, the Office 

of Tourism, Trade and Economic 

Development and affected MPOs and 

regional planning councils located along the corridor. The study, which provides an assessment of 

concerns and proposed solutions related to I-95, found that “I-95 is overwhelmed with traffic demand” 

and that “[t]ravel within specific urban areas along the I-95 corridor is highly congested in peak travel 

periods due to single driver automobile use.“ This study concluded, among other things, that 

“[p]assenger rail service presents a mobility option to serve Florida’s East Coast along the I-95 corridor” 

with multiple benefits including the reduction of “fossil fuel use and greenhouse gases (GHGs); job 

creation and economic development around station locations; and, better connectivity between 

northern and southern sections of Florida.”

The potential for intercity rail as a viable alternative has long been recognized by many, including FDOT, 

which developed the Florida Intercity Passenger Rail “Vision Plan” (FDOT, August 2006). Among other 

 

1

U.S. Census Bureau, 2010.

2 Metroplan Orlando, 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan.

3

Visit Florida, 2010 Florida Visitors Study.

Highway travel times and hours of delay have been increasing in 

Southeast and Central Florida and alternatives to auto transport have 

been sought as a solution.

Source: Texas Transportation Institute, Annual Urban Mobility Report, 2010

Figure 3: Hours of Delay and Travel Time Index, 1982-

2010
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things, the plan found that the state’s intercity travel market would grow from slightly more than 100 

million trips in 2006 to nearly 200 million trips by 2020, and 320 million trips by 2040 (FDOT, August 

2006). This increase will exacerbate existing transportation problems and require significant 

development of new infrastructure to meet the needs of this market.

Key highways linking Central and Southeast Florida are experiencing current issues with congestion as 

volume reaches the capacity of the roadway. State and regional transportation agencies expect this to 

worsen in the next 30 years. Figure 5 shows anticipated change in volume to capacity ratios for key 

regional highway links. As volumes approach or exceed a V/C ratio of 1.0 duing the peak hour of travel, 

speeds and reliability are expected to diminish substantially.

Figure 5: Anticipated Change in Volume to Capacity Ratios 2007-2040
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Source: Freight Analysis Framework, U.S. Federal Highway Administration, 2010; LBG, 2012.

Demand for intercity travel in the addressable market in Central and Southeast Florida to be served by 

AAF is expected to grow by 45 percent between 2010 and 2030. The following table shows the 

estimated level of annual person-trips by mode.

Table 5: Anticipated Change in Volume to Capacity Ratios 2007-2040

Intercity Travel Market, Estimates of Person Trips by Mode

2010 2030

Auto 51,000,000 74,000,000 

Air 250,000 360,000

Bus 660,000 950,000 

Train 80,000 120,000 

Total 51,990,000 75,430,000 

Note: Person trips greater than 40 miles in length in the AAF addressable market. Air trips between Orlando and Southeast 

Florida do not include travelers connecting from or to other cities.

Other transit systems face challenges to meeting the region’s transportation needs, as shown below:

 Auto Travel: From 1982 to 2007 the daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) had an annual 

average growth of 4.7 percent and 5.8 percent in Southeast Florida and Central Florida 

respectively. Due to the recession and credit crisis, the growth has leveled the VMT pattern 

but is predicted to resume growth as the population and employment growth resume. Even 

with the leveling of VMT, the increases have outpaced highway capacity. As the volume

reaches capacity of the roadway, travel time increases due to congestion. State and 

regional transportation agencies expect this to worsen in the next 30 years. Currently, 

travel times range from 4 hours 45 minutes, I-95 Route, and 3 hours 50 minutes including 

FHWA Freight Analysis Framework Average Annual Daily Traffic and Volume to Capacity Ratio Estimates 

for Key Roadways, 2007 and 2040

Map 

ID Segment Name State

2007 

AADT*

2040 

AADT*

2007 V/C 

Ratio

2040 V/C 

Ratio

1

State Route 528 east of State Route 

417 FL 49,478 75,440 0.82 1.16

2

Florida Turnpike, State Route 91, 

south of US Route 441 FL 30,050 45,818 0.71 1.01

3

Florida Turnpike, State Route 91, 

north of State Route 60 FL 26,000 39,642 0.53 0.79

4 I-95 south of State Route 528 FL 48,500 73,949 0.87 1.25

5 I-95 north of State Route 706 FL 70,954 108,185 0.72 1.05

6

Florida Turnpike, State Route 91, 

north of State Route 706 FL 36,000 54,890 0.57 0.87

7 I-95 north of State Route 870 FL 274,277 418,198 1.31 2.00

8

Florida Turnpike, State Route 91, 

north of State Route 870 FL 94,200 143,629 0.94 1.42

9 I-95 north of State Route 820 FL 283,774 432,678 1.07 1.64

10 Florida Turnpike, State Route 91, 

north of State Route 820 FL 113,369 172,857 1.12 1.71

11 I-75 south of I-595 FL 111,352 169,781 0.80 1.15

12 US Route 192 west of I-95 FL 5,775 8,805 0.12 0.22
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tolls, Florida Turnpike Route, with substantially greater times during congested peak 

periods. This leads to excessive fuel consumption and pollutant emissions.

 Amtrak: Amtrak includes travel points beyond Central and Southeast Florida. It has seen a 

steady growth rate through the recession, 1.8 percent average annual rate since 2000 and 8 

percent compound average annual since 2006. Amtrak has 2 trains, Silver Meteor and Silver 

Star, that only run once daily between Orlando and Southeast Florida. The travel time is 3 

hours 45 minutes for the Silver Meteor and 5 hours 45 minutes for the Silver Star and the 

headway, time between trains in transit, is 5 hours. Although Amtrak is an affordable rail 

system from Central Florida to Southeast Florida, it has a low frequency schedule and causes 

headway to be 5 times longer than the proposed rail service and has almost twice as long 

travel time. 

 Air Travel: There are more than 30 flights a day between Orlando International Airport 

(MCO) and Miami International Airport/Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport. 

The travel time is low and the headway is about one third longer than the proposed rail. 

The cost of travel is almost twice the amount of the proposed rail. When eliminating the 

connecting passengers, the annual number of air passengers is limited. Volumes have 

declined 20 percent in 2008 to 2009 but have increased in 2010 and reaching new high in 

2011.

 Bus Travel: There are 20 daily departures between Central and Southeast Florida. The

travel time and headway are 4 hours 15minutes and 2 hours 7 minutes respectively. These 

times are greater than the proposed rail and can possibly be greater due to the constraints 

of highway travel. 

9. Station Location Assessment

A key advantage to the use of the existing FEC Corridor in the development of new intercity passenger 

service in Southeast Florida is that the right-of-way passes through the most densely populated and 

highest growing areas in the region. The AAF development team determined station locations and the 

cities to be served by considering a variety of factors important to business planning for the institution 

of new passenger rail service: ridership demand potential, connectivity to local transit, and operational 

feasibility were key drivers in choosing the optimal locations. As such, the criteria considered during the 

evaluation included the following.

 Population and employment density

 Connection to surface transportation and transit

 Proximity to airport and seaport destinations

 Proximity to key Florida tourist destinations

 AAF travel time and efficiency in route and service planning

 Station development feasibility and cost

The table below demonstrates that the station areas in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach 

are well placed to provide access to potential passengers. Over 1 million people live within a 5-mile 

radius of the stations, nearly one-half million in Miami alone. The number of households in that area 
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stood at approximately 401,000 in 2010. Including vacant and seasonally occupied units, there were 

over 450,000 housing units within 5-miles of the proposed stations.

Table 6: Population and Households within 5-mile

Radius of AAF Stations (2010)

West Palm 

Beach

Fort 

Lauderdale Miami

Orlando 

Airport

Total Population 170,944 232,800 469,842 58,439

Total Households 67,702 95,996 185,966 20,917

Total Housing Units 88,427 119,422 228,669 14,493

Source: ESRI Business Analyst, 2012

Although suburban portions of the three Southeast Florida counties have grown more quickly during the 

last decade than the urban core, the immediate areas around the proposed AAF station locations did 

see substantial growth and development from 2000 to 2010. Population in the 5-mile buffer area as a 

whole was level or slow growing (average of less than 1 percent per year), but within a one-mile 

distance of the Southeast stations average annual population growth ranged from 1.9 percent in Fort 

Lauderdale to 5.6 percent in Miami. Overall, an additional 20,500 persons moved into the Southeast 

station areas within 1-mile of the station locations from 2000 to 2010.

Table 7: Average Annual Growth in Population, 2000-2010

by Radius around AAF Stations

5-mile 3-mile 1-mile

West Palm Beach 0.60% 0.50% 3.30%

Fort Lauderdale -0.10% -0.30% 1.90%

Miami 0.90% 1.50% 5.60%

Orlando Airport 5.10% 0.61% N/A

Source: ESRI Business Analyst, 2012

The maps on the following pages depict population density in the vicinity of the station locations and 

reveal the substantial density surrounding Orlando, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami

station locations.
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Figure 6: Population Density and Station Locations

Source: LBG from 2010 U.S. Census
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Figure 7: Population Density and Station Locations (Southeast Florida)

Source: LBG from 2010 U.S. Census
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Figure 8: Employment Density and Station Locations

Source: U.S. Census County Business Patterns Zip Code Level 2010, LBG.
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Figure 9: Employment Density and Station Locations (Southeast Florida)

Source: U.S. Census County Business Patterns Zip Code Level 2010, LBG.
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Along with the residential population, the economic composition of the area will be a significant driver 

of the demand for the rail service.

The industry composition of the areas surrounding each station location is varied. Fort Lauderdale’s 

composition is more diverse with a small retail industry leading the employment makeup. Both West 

Palm Beach and Miami have a high proportion of health care. Miami has a high proportion of 

professional services employment.

The industry composition for the areas can also provide an indication of the business travel market. 

Although there are no readily available statistics for this market, review of the Bureau of Economic 

Analysis’s 2002 Industry Make-Use tables provides insight into which industries use travel reservation 

(agent) services. This is a proxy for inter-regional trips made by either the industry’s employees during 

their course of work or potential clients. 

A majority of the industries that use traveling services are service oriented industries that require 

traveling to site locations and clients. The following map provides a depiction of the number of

establishments of these industries and their relation to the proposed stations. As reflected in the map, 

the West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami station areas have high concentrations of travelgenerating businesses. 

Figure 10: Concentrations of Establishments in Travel Dependent Industries

Source: U.S. Census County Business Patterns Zip Code Level 2010, LBG.
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10. Consideration of Alignment Alternatives

Operations and business planning for AAF is based on the return of passenger rail service to the FEC

Corridor, which will allow AAF to serve some the most densely populated and highest growing areas in 

the Southeast Florida region and connect to Orlando in a timely and cost efficient manner.

The proposed alignment provides an effective connection between the key city pairs and will allow AAF 

to provide travel time savings of 25 percent to 50 percent when compared to existing surface modes 

(i.e., auto, bus and rail). With a journey time of around three hours from Orlando to Miami, AAF’s 

service will also be competitive with air travel based on door-to-door travel times. 

The ridership evaluation included an analysis of the effect that alternative alignment with longer journey 

times would have on ridership. The analysis showed that an increase in AAF journey time of 10 percent

would result in a 7 percent decrease in overall ridership and revenue. Any alternative alignment that 

will increase travel time, therefore, can be expected to result in a substantial reduction in AAF ridership. 

Amtrak’s Silver Star, for example, which utilizes an alignment that runs through the central portion of 

the state through Winter Haven has a journey time of approximately 5 hours between Miami and 

Orlando (more than 60 percent longer than the journey that AAF plans to offer). More specifically, 

current Amtrak passenger volumes are 23,300 and current Amtrak travel times for the Sliver Meteor is 3 

hours 45 minutes and for the Silver Star is 5 hours 45 minutes. If AAF’s service had a similar journey 

time between the four cities in Southeast and Central Florida, we estimate that AAF’s ridership would 

decrease by 47 percent from the forecast presented in this summary report.

Given the importance of travel time to the ridership forecast findings, AAF has concluded that proposed 

alignments that would maintain the planned travel time would be the most favorable to development of 

the service.

11. Size of the Addressable Travel Market

LBG assembled a dataset of current intercity trips between the locations that would be served by the 

proposed service. This candidate market dataset serves as a primary input into the travel demand 

model as it represents the base from which potential AAF ridership would be drawn. The two primary 

market segments LBG identified were Business and Non-Business Travelers and the mix of travel modes 

operating between each individual intercity travel pair varied depending on the travel distance 

classification of long distance or short distance. Auto and air serve as the primary modes, with rail and 

bus making up the difference. The catchment area for the proposed All Aboard Florida service was 

determined based on the proposed station locations, which are Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm 

Beach and Orlando. The study area consists of following counties or groups of counties:

 Miami-Dade County (Southeast Florida)

 Broward County (Southeast Florida)

 Palm Beach County (Southeast Florida)

 Greater Orlando – includes Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole and Brevard Counties (Central 

Florida)

Auto

The study team conducted a thorough investigation to determine the level of intercity auto travel in 

both long and short distance travel markets, together with the distribution among the key origin and 
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destination pairs. LBG evaluated several independent sources of travel data including: ICAT auto trip 

data, regional travel demand models, and data collected from an O-D survey implemented for this AAF 

study. 

The LBG forecast model for full implementation of AAF service from Miami to Orlando utilizes trip tables 

produced by the I-95 Corridor Coalition to profile the volume of long-distance auto travel. The coalition 

is an organization comprised of state departments of transportation and other stakeholders in the states 

on the eastern seaboard that are connected by Interstate 95. To aid in planning for intercity travel 

infrastructure in the corridor, the coalition commissioned the Integrated Corridor Analysis Tool (ICAT), a 

dataset containing trip tables and full highway networks for each of the states in the corridor, including 

Florida. 

Unlike the travel data typically obtained from localized travel demand models, the ICAT dataset is one of 

the few transportation data sources that provide origin and destination patterns for the types of longdistance intercity trips of interest to this study. The ICAT trip tables have been calibrated to match 2005 

base year traffic counts observed on I-95 and other major interstates and arterial roadways throughout 

the defined corridor. 

The table below presents the ICAT long-distance auto trip volumes for the AAF market. The predicted 

change in the volume of auto vehicle trips implies a growth rate of approximately 9% between 2010 and 

2015.

Table 8: Long Distance Daily Auto Vehicle Trips, ICAT

City Pair

Auto Trips

2010 2015

Central Florida to Miami 5,810 6,471

Central Florida to Fort Lauderdale 6,225 6,805

Central Florida to West Palm Beach 6,468 6,978

TOTAL 18,503 20,254

LBG estimated the volume of long-distance intercity person trips by applying vehicle occupancy rates 

(specific to each city-pair) obtained from the AAF Origin and Destination (O-D) survey that is discussed in 

subsequent sections of this report. The resulting volume of auto person trips is presented below.

Table 9: Long Distance Daily Auto Person Trips

City Pair Auto Person Trips

Central Florida to Miami 14,414

Central Florida to Fort Lauderdale 14,505

Central Florida to West Palm Beach 14,311

TOTAL 43,230

To help evaluate the intercity trip data available through ICAT, LBG conducted an O-D survey covering 

the full AAF corridors. The direct comparison of O-D survey results to the ICAT data is not appropriate 

due to the broad geographic definitions used to describe intercity travel moments in the O-D survey 

instrument. Furthermore, the auto travel market area used in the mode choice model also required 

additional adjustments to address the potential overstatement of AAF ridership resulting from 
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backtracking (that is the mode choice model predictions of diversions by auto users making long AAF 

access trips in the opposite direction of their final destination). 

The O-D survey does, however, provide a means of evaluating the distribution of long distance trips 

from the three distinct long distance city pairs. The following table provides a comparison of the city pair 

distributions from both data sources and shows a relatively even distribution across both datasets; the 

survey data does, however, show a slightly higher proportion of trips between Central Florida and 

Miami. This finding suggests that the ICAT trip table is relatively conservative from a revenue standpoint. 

LBG further used data from the Florida Turnpike Enterprise and MPOs in Central and Southeast Florida 

to confirm the validity of the trip tables. Overall the traffic count and origin and destination data 

available from the MPOs and the Florida Turnpike Enterprise are consistent with the volume of auto 

trips assumed in the AAF trip table as well as the distribution of trips between Central Florida, West 

Palm Beach and points south.

Air

Air travel volumes for the long distance travel market were derived using data obtained from both the 

FAA 10% sample of tickets, as well as Orlando International Airport (IATA airport code MCO) air traffic 

reports published by Greater Orlando Aviation Authority (GOAA). Data from the 2010 FAA 10% Sample

(below) shows the Orlando-Miami (IATA airport code MIA) and the Orlando-Fort Lauderdale (IATA 

airport code FLL) to be the primary air travel routes between Central and Southeast Florida; a negligible 

volume of travel is observed between Orlando and West Palm Beach airport (IATA airport code PBI). The 

2011 GOAA data (below) provided a similar overall volume of long distance air travel, but also presented 

a more balanced picture of travel between the two key airport pairs. LBG adopted the more recent 2011 

GOAA data for the air travel trip tables. 

Table 10: Annual Air Passenger Volumes, FAA 10% Ticket Sample 2010

Airport Pair (Both Directions)

Air Passengers

Annual Daily

Orlando (MCO) - Palm Beach (PBI) 40 <1

Orlando (MCO) - Fort Lauderdale (FLL) 163,500 448

Orlando (MCO) - Miami (MIA) 88,900 244

TOTAL 252,440 692

Table 11: Daily Air Passenger Volumes, GOAA 2011

Airport Pair (Both Directions) 2010 2015

Orlando (MCO) - Palm Beach (PBI) 0 0

Orlando (MCO) - Fort Lauderdale (FLL) 350 382

Orlando (MCO) - Miami (MIA) 302 330

TOTAL 652 712
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Rail and Bus

The rail and bus travel markets analyzed in this study distinguished between the long and short distance 

markets. LBG examined Amtrak, commuter rail and bus data to obtain daily volumes for long and short 

distance trips for 2010 and projected for 2015. On the whole, rail and bus trips account for a 

substantially smaller share of inter-city trips in the AAF region, as compared to auto and air.
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12. Peer Review 

In keeping with best practices in the preparation of investment grade ridership and revenue studies, 

FECI engaged a peer review consultant (internationally recognized travel demand consultants Steer 

Davies Gleave) to conduct a thorough examination of the methods, assumptions and findings of the LBG 

Base Case Forecast presented in this summary report. The peer review process was enhanced by the 

early engagement of the review team, so that they could provide iterative review of assumptions and 

data sources from early stages of model development through finalization of the report. 

13. Conclusion

With frequent service between city centers in the corridor, AAF offers the prospect of substantial time 

savings to current users of auto, bus, traditional rail, and even air. To determine how these time savings 

would alter travel behavior and generate ridership and revenue for AAF, LBG undertook a detailed 

examination of current travel behavior, and conducted surveys that determined traveler preferences 

and willingness to pay. Best practices in discrete choice analysis and travel network modeling were 

employed and findings were tested and referenced to previous studies. The investment grade forecasts 

prepared for this feasibility study were intended to be conservative in nature. The analysis revealed that 

introduction of AAF service would complement existing modes of travel and draw substantial number of 

business and non-business travelers.