Actuarial Notes

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U.S. Railroad Retirement Board Bureau of the Actuary

No. 1 - 15

November 2015

Longevity of Railroad Retirement Beneficiaries

Calculations of the life expectancies of railroad retirement beneficiaries have recently been made

from studies of data compiled for the Twenty-Sixth Actuarial Valuation of the railroad retirement

system, which was made as of December 31, 2013. These studies have been conducted for male

and female age annuitants, disability annuitants, spouses and widows. Comparisons with studies 

done for the twenty-fourth and the twenty-fith valuations show a general improvement in life 

expectancies. Other major results of the studies are contained in the following discussion and the

two attached tables.

Life expectancies may help provide an indication of the amount that will be paid out in benefits in

individual situations, since a benefit is generally payable until the individual beneficiary dies. In the

case of spouses and widows, another event, such as death of the employee or remarriage of the

widow, may terminate all or a portion of the benefit.

Table 1 illustrates the differences in longevity among the categories of railroad retirement

beneficiaries and also shows life expectancy figures for the total U.S. population. The figures for

railroad retirement beneficiaries show age and disability retirements separately, while those for the

U.S. population do not segregate disabled lives.

As indicated in table 1, a male railroad worker retiring at age 65 may expect, on the average, to

receive his annuity for 18.2 years or approximately 218 months; while one retiring at age 62 may

expect to receive his annuity for 20.7 years or approximately 248 months. At age 65, female

railroad retirement age annuitants have a life expectancy of 21.1 years, which is 2.9 years longer

than males at the same age. Females at age 65 in the U.S. population as a whole live 2.6 years

longer on average than males. While a female age annuitant or spouse at age 65 may expect to

live about 21.1 and 21.2 years, respectively, a widow at the same age is expected to live 19.0

years. One reason for the difference in longevity may be that a widow's life expectancy is affected

by a change in financial and social position and the intangible effect of bereavement brought on by

the employee's death.
-2-

Life expectancies for disability beneficiaries are shown below. Both those disabled from 

performing their regular occupation and those totally disabled from performing any occupation are

included. Total disabilities are those which meet the more restrictive disability standards of social

security.

Life expectanciesa at selected ages for railroad disability annuitants at retirement 

and 5 or more years after retirement

5 or more years

 Ageb At retirement after retirement

 45 c 26.4 28.6

50 24.7 24.7

55 20.6 21.2

60 17.2 17.8

65 14.5

70 11.6

75 8.9

80 6.6

a Based on experience between 2009 and 2012 anniversaries of retirement.

b Age nearest birthday.

c Data not statistically significant.

This table indicates that the life expectancy of a person newly disabled is somewhat lower than

that of a person disabled a number of years earlier. At age 55, for example, a recently disabled

person may expect to live 20.6 years on average, while one disabled 5 or more years ago has a

life expectancy of 21.2 years.

The data used to calculate life expectancy figures also provide a basis for estimating what 

proportion of the retired population may be expected to remain alive at the end of a particular

number of years in the future. The chances of survival for 5, 10, 15 and 20 years for retired

individuals are given in table 2. According to these figures, from a group of 1,000 retired male

employees at age 65, 930 will survive at least 5 years, 820 at least 10 years, 655 at least 15 years,

and 445 at least 20 years. Of female age annuitants at age 65, 590 will be alive 20 years later.

Life expectancy figures are averages for large groups. The future lifetime of a particular individual

may be longer or shorter than the life expectancy for his age group. Under the railroad retirement

system, there have been many who have received benefits for 25 years or more.
Table 1

Life expectancies at ages 60-85 for railroad

retirement beneficiaries and for the general population

Railroad Retirementa

Age annuitants Disability U.S. Populationb

Agec Males Females Annuitants Spousesd Widowse Males Females

60 22.4 25.6 17.7 25.5 23.2 21.5 24.4

61 21.5 24.7 17.1 24.6 22.3 20.7 23.6

62 20.7 23.7 16.4 23.7 21.4 19.9 22.8

63 19.8 22.9 15.8 22.9 20.6 19.2 22.0

64 19.0 22.0 15.1 22.0 19.8 18.4 21.1

65 18.2 21.1 14.5 21.2 19.0 17.7 20.3

66 17.4 20.2 14.0 20.4 18.2 17.0 19.5

67 16.6 19.4 13.4 19.6 17.5 16.3 18.7

68 15.9 18.5 12.8 18.8 16.8 15.6 18.0

69 15.1 17.7 12.1 18.0 16.1 14.9 17.2

70 14.3 17.0 11.6 17.2 15.4 14.2 16.5

71 13.6 16.2 11.0 16.5 14.7 13.5 15.7

72 12.9 15.5 10.5 15.7 14.0 12.9 15.0

73 12.2 14.7 9.9 15.0 13.4 12.2 14.3

74 11.6 14.0 9.4 14.3 12.8 11.6 13.6

75 10.9 13.3 8.9 13.6 12.2 11.0 12.9

76 10.3 12.7 8.4 12.9 11.5 10.4 12.2

77 9.7 11.9 8.0 12.2 10.9 9.8 11.5

78 9.1 11.2 7.5 11.5 10.3 9.3 10.9

79 8.6 10.5 7.0 10.9 9.8 8.7 10.3

80 8.0 9.8 6.6 10.3 9.2 8.2 9.7

81 7.4 9.2 6.2 9.7 8.6 7.7 9.1

82 6.9 8.5 5.8 9.1 8.1 7.2 8.5

83 6.5 7.9 5.4 8.5 7.6 6.7 8.0

84 6.0 7.4 5.1 8.0 7.1 6.3 7.4

85 5.6 6.9 4.8 7.5 6.7 5.8 6.9

a

 Based on experience between anniversaries of retirement in 2009 and 2012 for all annuitants.

b

 U.S. Life Tables for 2010 from Tables 2 and 3, National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 63, No. 7, 

 Nov. 6, 2014, United States Public Health Service, U.S. Department of Health and Human

 Services.

c For railroad retirement data, age basis is age nearest birthday at beginning of policy year; for U.S.

 population data, age basis is exact age.

 d About 95 percent of spouses are female.

 e Includes widowers. About 99 percent of widows and widowers are female.
Table 2

Chances of survival for specified periods, 

by age and category of railroad retirement beneficiary

Number alive per 1,000 after Number alive per 1,000 after

Agea 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years

Male age annuitants Female age annuitants

60 961 895 788 630 979 934 854 748

65 930 820 655 445 955 873 764 590

70 881 704 478 233 914 800 618 377

75 799 543 265 78 875 676 413 158

Spouses Widows

60 971 919 841 727 961 885 777 640

65 947 866 749 583 921 808 666 484

70 915 791 616 392 877 723 526 305

75 864 673 429 193 824 600 348 139

All disability annuitants

60 893 764 604 426

65 856 676 477 268

70 790 557 313 128

75 706 396 162 39

Disabled annuitants

Disability annuitants at retirement disabled 5 or more years

45 878 821 756 681 958 896 826 743

50 934 860 774 663 935 862 775 664

55 890 801 686 542 921 829 710 560

60 862 738 583 411 900 771 608 429

65 b b b b 856 676 477 268

70 b b b b 790 557 313 128

75 b b b b 706 396 162 39

a

 Age nearest birthday approximates exact age.

b

 Not applicable. Disability annuities not awarded on or after 65th birthday.