Timber Products Output and

Timber Harvests in Alaska:

Projections for 1997-2010

David J. Brooks and Richard W. Haynes

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Forest Service

Pacific Northwest

Research Station

General Technical

Report

PNW-GTR-409

September 1997
Authors DAVID J. BROOKS is a research forester, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, 3200 S.W.

Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331; and RICHARD W. HAYNES is a research

forester, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, P.O. Box 3890, Portland, OR 97208.
Conservation and Resource

Assessments for the Tongass Land

Management Plan Revision

Charles G. Shaw III

Technical Coordinator

Timber Products Output and Timber Harvests in

Alaska: Projections for 1997-2010

David J. Brooks and Richard W. Haynes

Published by:

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Forest Service

Pacific Northwest Research Station

Portland, Oregon

General Technical Report PNW-GTR-409

September 1997
Abstract Brooks, David J.; Haynes, Richard W. 1997. Timber products output and timber

harvests in Alaska: projections for 1997-2010. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-409.

Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest

Research Station. 17 p. (Shaw, Charles G., III, tech. coord.; Conservation and

resource assessments for the Tongass land management plan revision).

Projections of Alaska timber products output, the derived demand for raw material,

and timber harvest by owner are developed from a trend-based analysis. These

projections are revisions of projections made in 1990 and again in 1994, and reflect

the consequences of recent changes in the Alaska forest sector and long-term trends

in markets for Alaska products. With the closure of the two southeast Alaska pulp

mills, demand for Alaska National Forest timber now depends on markets for sawn

wood and the ability to export manufacturing residues and lower grade logs. Three

alternative projections are used to display a range of possible future demand. Areas

of uncertainty include the prospect of continuing changes in markets and in conditions

faced by competitors and the speed and magnitude in investment in manufacturing in

Alaska. The sensitivity of model output to changes in key assumptions is displayed.

Keywords: National Forest (Alaska), forest sector models, lumber.

Summary Projections of Alaska timber products output and timber harvest by owner were

developed by using a trend-based analysis; these are revisions and updates of

earlier projections. These revised projections include new data (for 1992-96) and

revised assumptions. A spreadsheet model that provides a complete materials

accounting for the Alaska forest sector is used to link information on products

manufactured in Alaska, projections of market demand for these products, and

assumptions about Alaska’s share of these markets.

Among the new data and revised assumptions reflected in these projections are the

closure of one of Alaska’s two pulp mills in 1993 and the closure of the second pulp

mill early in 1997. Although proposals have been made for mills that would, in effect,

replace at least some of the demand created by these two pulp mills for low-grade

saw logs, utility logs and manufacturing residues, these currently are no more than

proposals. Our projections therefore are based on demand for National Forest timber

that would be used in manufacturing sawn wood for both export markets and U.S.

domestic markets; we also estimated the volume of low-grade saw logs and utility

logs that would be harvested and exported or left as logging residues.

In addition to changes in the structure of the Alaska forest sector, there also have

been changes in markets for Alaska products and changes in conditions faced

by Alaska’s competitors (the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia). Brooks and

Haynes (1994) address these changes as of 1994, and the current projections

update and revise that summary. Perhaps the most important changes have

taken place in markets, especially the Japanese market.

In our revised projections, the derived demand for National Forest timber is projected

to range from 96 to 130 million board feet for the remainder of this decade, and 132

to 223 million board feet in the next decade (2001-2010). These figures refer to total

National Forest harvest, including both saw-log and utility volume. We assumed that

timber sales and harvests will continue to include the lower grade material that accounts for 30 to 40 percent of Alaska’s timber inventory, but our projections take into

account the fact that existing mills may not be able to profitably use the low-grade

saw logs and utility volume. Change in the portion of the saw-log inventory that will

be used is an explicit element of the scenarios that we examined.
If clearcut harvesting continues to be the primary harvesting method, the ability to

sell lower grade material will be a critical component of profitable (i.e., “above-cost”)

timber sales and logging operations. Similarly, the ability to sell lower grade lumber

and manufacturing residues will be critical to profitable lumber manufacturing in

Alaska. As part of all the projections, we assumed that low-grade saw logs and utility

volume that are not used to manufacture lumber in Alaska are either exported or are

left as logging residues; we also assumed that all manufacturing residues can be,

and are, exported. Were new manufacturing facilities established in southeast Alaska

that could use this material, low-grade logs and manufacturing residues could be

diverted from export markets. A critical consideration, however, is the ability of any

new industry to pay a competitive price for this raw material, including the cost of

harvesting and delivery to the mill.

Three scenarios were developed to display alternative futures for Alaska’s forest

sector and the resulting demand for National Forest timber. One alternative (labeled

“high”) describes a future of higher levels of lumber production, log exports, and

timber harvests in Alaska; this scenario is predicated on the development of a

more efficient, more competitive industry in Alaska and on markets willing to pay

a premium for lumber manufactured from old-growth logs. North American lumber

was assumed to regain a greater share of the Japanese market (as compared to

the “medium” scenario), and mills in Alaska were assumed to increase their share of

North American shipments. By 1996, the Alaska share of North American softwood

lumber shipments to Japan had dropped to less than 1 percent; in this scenario, we

assumed that Alaska’s share would increase to 4 percent by 2010. In addition, Alaska

shipments to U.S. domestic markets also were assumed to increase. Sawmills in

Alaska were assumed to be able to profitably use nearly the entire range of sawlog grades that comprise the timber inventory. Compared to the medium scenario,

demand for National Forest timber is about 15 percent higher in the near term and

30 percent higher by 2010.

In the “low” scenario, Alaska was assumed to recover some of the markets lost to

other producers; the recent trends in production and market share for Alaska are

reversed but only to a limited extent. The niche in which Alaska is expected to be

able to compete is small, in both domestic and export markets. Higher costs and

competition were assumed to limit Alaska’s opportunities; only small gains in technical efficiency were assumed and reinforce this low-competitiveness future. Sawmills

in Alaska were assumed to be able to use only the higher grade saw logs that account for less than half of the timber inventory; as a result, the volume of low-grade

saw logs and utility timber that is “excess” to the raw material requirements of Alaska

mills is half of the total harvest. In this projection, demand for National Forest timber

increases only slightly from the current (1996) level and is 30 percent lower than the

“medium scenario” by 2010.

The medium scenario displays the consequences of an intermediate set of assumptions. Because of the relatively high degree of uncertainty surrounding developments

in Alaska, we deliberately avoided labeling any of these scenarios as a “most likely”

projection. Instead, our objective was to focus attention on key issues, such as

competitiveness and efficiency, and to translate the range of views on these issues

into a range of values for parameters in our model. The model is a framework for

specifying assumptions about the future for Alaska and displaying their implications

in terms of derived demand for National Forest timber.
In addition to the scenarios, the effects of changes in individual elements of the

projection also are displayed. This sensitivity analysis shows model results to be

most sensitive to relatively small changes in Alaska’s share of North American

shipment of softwood lumber to Japan. Therefore, one of the central issues facing

the Alaska forest sector is competitiveness relative to producers in the Pacific

Northwest and British Columbia.
Introduction In three earlier reports, we assessed conditions in Alaska timber markets as of the

late 1980s and early 1990s (Haynes and Brooks 1990) and developed projections

of the derived demand for Alaska National Forest timber based on those conditions

and trends (Brooks and Haynes 1990, 1994). Those projections were predicated

on several assumptions, almost all of which were made explicit. We also made the

implicit assumption that there would be no structural changes in markets for Alaska

timber (primarily Japan), in the regions competing with Alaska for Japanese markets,

or in the mix of the forest products industry in Alaska. Since 1994, events have

altered nearly all these assumptions. We therefore have reexamined and revised

our projections of demand for Alaska National Forest timber.

First, there have been changes in the Japanese market. Since 1990, new suppliers

have emerged as significant competitors to North America; shipments from Europe

(primarily Scandinavia) now account for more than 10 percent of Japanese sawn

wood imports, compared to less than 0.3 percent in 1990. The importance of new

suppliers is, in part, a consequence of changes in the market for lumber (especially

for products particularly important to Alaska, such as baby squares and other hemlock [Tsuga spp.] products) as acceptance of laminated wood products and other

engineered wood products increases (see, for example, Japan Lumber Reports 1997).

The primary factor contributing to these market changes is, however, increasing

prices. New suppliers and new products are natural consequences of the process

of market adjustment to scarcity and higher prices. In addition to these changes in

sources of supply, recent projections (Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO]

1997) of future Japanese lumber consumption are significantly lower than those

used previously (Brooks and Haynes 1994).

A second major change has been in the structure of the Alaska forest sector. The

permanent closure of one pulp mill in 1993 and the closure of the second Alaska

pulp mill in March 1997 changed both the structure and the scale of the forest

products industry in southeast Alaska. The loss of local markets for manufacturing

residues presents challenges to lumber producers in Alaska. Because revenue from

residues is, in some market conditions, the key to profitability, greater dependence

on more distant and less certain markets changes the competitive environment for

lumber manufacturing in Alaska.

The third set of changes is continuing developments in the Pacific Northwest and

Canada. Efforts to protect the habitat of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis)

and other threatened species in the Pacific Northwest have more or less worked their

way through stumpage market and product markets. In general, these changes have

lowered total timber harvest and raised stumpage prices in the Pacific Northwest

and in competing regions such as Alaska. Reductions in Federal timber harvests in

Oregon and Washington have not, however, eliminated the Pacific Northwest as one

of Alaska’s primary competitors in overseas and U.S. domestic markets. Canada also

remains a significant competitor. Although lumber exports to Japan from the Pacific

Northwest declined by nearly 40 percent over the period 1989-95, increases in

shipments from Canada to Japan more than offset this decline. As a result, from

1990 to 1996, total lumber shipments from North America to Japan increased by

nearly 30 percent while shipments from Alaska fell by nearly 90 percent. Steady

production in British Columbia and increasing lumber production in eastern Canada

have helped to increase Canada’s share of both the Japanese and the U.S. market,

1
and to moderate price increases, especially for middle and lower grade lumber.

Canada’s exports contributed to a net increase in North American shipments of

softwood lumber to Japan, but because Japanese imports from other regions

increased even faster, the North American share of the Japanese market declined.

The expectation that changes in the competitive position of the Pacific Northwest

would provide a modest advantage to Alaska was one of the underlying assumptions of our previous projections (Brooks and Haynes 1994). In hindsight, this was

optimistic. The prospective advantage was eliminated by higher costs, new competitors, and uncertainty in the level and dependability of timber supplies in Alaska. In

addition, our earlier projections assumed the continued operation of at least one

pulp mill; the closure of both pulp mills and the subsequent (but unrelated) decline

in prices for manufacturing residues present challenges to profitable lumber manufacturing in Alaska. As a result of all these changes, these revised projections suggest a

substantially different future for production in Alaska and in the derived demand for

National Forest timber.

As for all projections, our outlook for the demand for National Forest timber depends

on assumptions; in our earlier studies and again here, we have based our conclusions

on historical data and on our judgments of likely developments. Because no one can

know the future, and because there are competing interpretations of the past, differences of opinion are inevitable. In this review and revision, we have isolated the

main differences between our current outlook and previous outlooks; this was done

to illustrate the projection process and support the reasoning underlying our assumptions. We present our projections as three scenarios built on internally consistent but

broadly different sets of assumptions regarding values for key elements of the model.

The scenarios reflect three different views of the uncertainty surrounding demand

projections. Because there is additional uncertainty associated with individual assumptions within each scenario, the scenarios cannot be taken as exact, even if conditional

predictions of the future. The sensitivity of our projections to changes in individual

assumptions is shown in a separate exercise.

We characterize the future for demand for National Forest timber as having a high

degree of uncertainty because of the magnitude of recent changes in the Alaska

forest sector, and because many of the factors that will determine the size and

type of industry in the future cannot be predicted. The level and reliability of timber

supplies from Alaska National Forests are only two among a number of sources

of uncertainty; rates of economic growth in key markets, changing technology and

tastes and preferences of consumers, and the strength of competition are among

other sources of uncertainty.

Approach Brooks and Haynes (1990) describe the methods used to develop projections of

Alaska National Forest timber harvests; Brooks and Haynes (1994) describe revisions to the earlier model. The projections presented here are based on the methods

described in Brooks and Haynes (1994) and on revisions to both data and assumptions. Our model is one in which the outlook for consumption underlies projections

of forest products production and timber harvests in Alaska. Conditions in markets,

specifically total consumption and competition from alternative suppliers, are used

to estimate production of lumber in Alaska.

2
This model calculates derived demand based on trends in product markets; market

shares are used as the critical measure of relative competitiveness. We based our

projections of Alaska’s future market shares on an evaluation of factors contributing

to recent trends and our judgments of future developments in those factors. Relative

prices (delivered to markets) and costs are the primary factors we considered in

estimating future market shares. We convert expected product output into raw material requirements—timber harvest—by using conversion factors such as overrun in

lumber production. The model structure and values for conversion factors were

evaluated by comparing calculated derived demand with reported harvest for the

historic period, 1970-96. In this update, we replaced projections with reported data

for 1992-96. These revised data are especially important, as they display trends

and patterns for the remainder of the current decade (1991-2000) and establish the

starting point for subsequent projections. The addition of five more years of data

has resulted in a slight improvement in the accuracy of our historical estimates of

the derived demand for Alaska timber. The average error of our estimates for the

period 1970-96 is now 4.1 percent, compared to 4.3 percent previously (1970-90).

As with our previous projections, the volume of projected National Forest harvest is

neither the volume likely to be harvested nor, necessarily, the volume that ought

to be offered for sale.1 It is the volume of National Forest timber harvest that is

consistent with projected consumption of Alaska products. Important assumptions

that underlie the projections of National Forest timber harvest include the availability

of timber from other sources, the mix of products produced in Alaska, and the efficiency of production. Markets will adjust (through changes in prices) to the quantity

of timber ultimately made available. Although such adjustments are not an explicit,

endogenous element of our model, we do not intend to imply that “gaps” will be

created by levels of National Forest harvest that differ from our projections. The

consequences of changes in Alaska National Forest timber harvests will be greatest

in Alaska, and quite small elsewhere because Alaska contributes a relatively small

share of regional timber production, and National Forests are only one source of

timber in Alaska.2

1 In all the projections, timber supply from the Tongass

National Forest was assumed to be reliable, predictable,

and sufficient to meet the requirements of the industry. The

projections were not done in reference to a proposed or

prospective Allowable Sale Quantity (ASQ).

2 Total timber harvest in Alaska in 1995 was 4 percent

of the combined harvest in the greater Pacific Northwest

(Oregon, Washington, and coastal British Columbia);

National Forests in Alaska contributed 30 percent

(200 million board feet) of the Alaska total. The

Tongass National Forest accounted for 99 percent

of timber harvest from Alaska National Forests in 1995.

3
In this projection, as before, we assumed that Alaska mills either cannot or will not

compete for timber harvested from private land (Native Corporations) in Alaska. This

is an important assumption: in the last decade (1987-96), private timber accounted

for nearly two-thirds of all timber harvested in Alaska, and more than three-fourths

of the private timber harvest occurs in southeast Alaska. Historically, nearly all the

private timber harvest was exported in log form. The complete dependence of Alaska

mills on National Forest timber could change (at least theoretically) as a consequence

of changes in policies and changes in markets. Because the Japanese market is the

primary destination of both Alaska log and product exports, increasing efficiency in

Alaska mills and improved product marketing could lead to an ability to compete for

logs currently exported, but we did not examine this possibility.

Our projection of private timber harvest was based on the assumption that harvest

will decline as a consequence of declining timber inventories. As was the case in

our first projections (Brooks and Haynes 1990, Haynes and Brooks 1990) we based

our projections of private timber harvest on Knapp’s (1992) analysis. In Brooks and

Haynes (1994), we revised our initial projections, and we revise them again here.

In these revised projections of demand for National Forest timber, the most important

new data are those for Alaska production and export of logs, pulp, and lumber, and

for Japanese production, consumption, and imports. The closure of Alaska’s pulp

mills has a particularly large effect on demand for timber, with wood consumption

by pulp mills accounting for about half of the Alaska National Forest timber harvest

since 1970. In our previous model, projections of lumber production, even at mills

associated with pulp mills, were more or less independent of projections of pulp

production; therefore, the effect of the pulp mill closure on lumber production is

through the demand for (and price of) manufacturing residues. For these revised

scenarios, we assumed that alternative markets, either export or domestic, can be

developed for chips, low-grade saw logs, and utility grade logs. In the absence of

markets, low-grade saw logs and utility logs may be left as logging residues. Lumber

production estimates for Alaska are based on projections of exports and an explicit

assumption about the share of production shipped to U.S. domestic markets.

We started the process of revising our projections by collecting and incorporating

data for 1993 through 1996; significant changes in markets are reflected in a number

of data series. These include, for example, projections of demand for sawn wood

in the Japanese market; our revised projections are consistent with the most recent

projections published by FAO (1997). As a result of changes in the Japanese market,

especially for hemlock, and the entry of new suppliers, the North American share of

Japanese softwood sawn wood imports declined sharply over the period 1990-96. In

addition, Alaska’s share of North American exports to Japan also declined; in 1996,

Alaska’s share of North American softwood lumber shipments to Japan was less than

1 percent, compared to nearly 7 percent in 1990 and nearly 15 percent in 1980. Both

shares were and continue to be important elements of our projections. We replaced

previously projected data with reported data for 1992-96 and revised our trend-based

projections for 1997 to 2010.

In our previous projections, we accounted for the increasing importance of U.S.

domestic markets to Alaska lumber producers in the early 1990s, but we also

expected export markets to be the primary market for Alaska. Based on data for

1990-96, we have revised this, and our projections of total lumber production are

based on the assumption that 15 to 35 percent of Alaska’s lumber production will

be shipped to U.S. domestic markets.

4
To account for changes in the structure of the Alaska forest sector, we revised our

estimates and projections of overrun in lumber production (board feet, lumber tally

per board feet, log scale). Our use of the term “overrun” is as “the amount of lumber

actually recovered in excess of the amount predicted by the log scale” (Hartman

and others 1981), with log volume measured as it enters the production process.

Because Alaska sawmills had an incentive (or in some cases, an obligation) to

produce chips from a portion of the raw material they consumed, overrun in Alaska

historically was lower than in, for example, the Pacific Northwest. In the previous

projections, we assumed that overrun was constant for the projection period.

With the closure of the pulp mills, Alaska sawmills will have to increase their technical efficiency to be competitive; mills will have little or no incentive to produce

residues (chips) at the expense of lumber recovery. In addition, decreasing average

log size also will result in an increase in overrun. In our projections, we therefore

assumed that overrun will increase by either as little as 10 percent (in the “low”

scenario) or as much as 30 percent (in the “high” scenario) over the period 1997-

2010. In the “medium” scenario, overrun was assumed to increase by 20 percent,

but remains well below the current average for sawmills in the Pacific Northwest.

Increases in technical efficiency in Alaska sawmills will require investment in equipment and training; in all three scenarios, we assumed that this investment will be

made in an effort to maintain—or even increase—Alaska’s competitive advantage

in domestic and export markets.

In all three scenarios, we incorporated what we believe to be the most likely trends

in Japanese consumption and the associated model elements. The three scenarios

differ in four key elements and, as a result, display broadly different views of the

future for Alaska. In the low scenario, Alaska is assumed to face a future much like

the recent past: increasing costs and increasing competition limiting both markets

and Alaska’s ability to incorporate higher costs in product prices. North American

producers as a whole are assumed to face continuing competition from other

suppliers in the Japanese market; in none of the scenarios do we assume the

possibility of a return to the market shares observed in the 1980s. Nevertheless,

North America is assumed to supply 70 percent (in the low scenario) to 76 percent

(in the high scenario) of Japanese softwood lumber imports in 2010.

In the medium scenario, Alaska is assumed to be able to regain some of the export

market lost in the past few years, and U.S. domestic markets are assumed to continue to be important. In the high scenario, Alaska is assumed to be able to increase

production and shipments to both export and domestic markets. In the low scenario,

Alaska’s share of North American shipments to Japan was assumed to increase from

current levels, but only to a limited extent. In none of the scenarios do we explicitly

examine the possible emergence of new industries in Alaska. In all three scenarios,

however, the projected level of National Forest harvest (and possible export) of lowgrade saw logs and utility grade logs, and the production of manufacturing residues

at Alaska sawmills is consistent with the raw material needed to support a small- to

medium-scale facility producing, for example, medium-density fiberboard or ethanol.

5
Results Table 1 compares the three scenarios and the previous base projections (Brooks

and Haynes 1990, 1994). For the next decade and a half (1997-2010), we estimate

demand to be significantly lower, on average, than in previous estimates (Brooks and

Haynes 1990, 1994). The decrease in projected derived demand can be traced to the

closure of the pulp mills, changes in the Japanese market for softwood lumber, and

changes in Alaska’s competitive position resulting from high production costs for both

harvesting and manufacturing.

In the medium scenario, we assumed that North American shipments of softwood

lumber to Japan increase in quantity and in their share of Japanese imports for 1997

through 2010, and that Alaska’s share of those shipments also increases. Currently,

Alaska accounts for less than 1 percent of North American shipments to Japan,

but we assume that by 2010 this will increase to nearly 3 percent. In this scenario,

Alaska is able to take advantage of the market niches in which it has a comparative

advantage: products manufactured from old-growth spruce (Picea spp.) and, to some

extent, old-growth hemlock. This projection also assumes that U.S. domestic markets

are the destination of 25 percent of Alaska’s production. Projected lumber production

in Alaska increases from less than 30 million board feet (1996) to 158 million board

feet in 2010. For this projection to be realized, Alaska manufacturers must successfully compete against North American and other producers in both markets; this

depends, in turn, on improvements in Alaska’s ability to manufacture and market

forest products. Lumber recovery (overrun) is assumed to increase by 20 percent

over the period of the projection (1997-2010).

Table 1—Alternative projections of the average annual derived demand for

Alaska National Forest timbera

Alternative scenarios Previous projections

Brooks and Brooks and

Periodb Low Medium High Haynes (1990)c Haynes (1994)d

Million board feet

1983-87 281 281 281 281 281

1988-92 414 414 414 414 414

1993-97 189 192 201 404 300

1998-2002 96 113 130 403 315

2003-7 130 152 182 397 332

2008-10 132 174 223 401 335

a See text for a description of the scenarios; detailed data for the medium projection are shown

in table 2 and scenario data are shown in table 3.

b Years are the period over which 5-year averages are calculated. For data shown for 1993-97,

only data for 1997 are projected.

c Base projection.

d Base projection (1 pulp mill assumed to be operating).

6
Although the projected gain in market share for Alaska in the medium scenario

is relatively small, any gain will be a reversal of trends observed over the past 20

years. Recent declines in Alaska timber harvests and market share may be partly a

result of uncertainty and delays associated with management policies and litigation.

To the extent that this is true, a more stable management and policy environment

may enable Alaska to increase production quickly and competitively. The medium

scenario assumes an ability to increase both harvest and lumber production, and

that the cost disadvantages that Alaska currently faces in harvesting timber and

manufacturing lumber (compared to the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, for

example) do not increase and may in fact decrease. Historically, lower stumpage

charges and generally higher quality raw material have been partial compensation

for this disadvantage for Alaska lumber manufacturing. Alaska’s lumber production

and market shares nevertheless have decreased steadily for more than 20 years,

suggesting that the disadvantages may outweigh any advantage resulting from the

value of Alaska’s raw material.

The medium scenario displays significant changes in the composition of timber that

will be used in Alaska. In particular, manufacturing in Alaska is expected to be dependent on saw logs used to manufacture lumber that is competitive in both export

and U.S. domestic markets. Local (Alaska) markets are not expected to use lowgrade logs or residues from lumber manufacturing. We assumed that this material

will be exported (see table 2) but at the same time it is a potential source of wood

raw material for new, small- to medium-scale industries in southeast Alaska; for

example, we project that about 100-200 thousand tons (bone dry) of manufacturing

residues and chips and 45-67 million board feet of low-grade and utility grade logs

will be produced. Revenue from exports of manufacturing residues—or from local

purchase— will be an important element of profitable lumber production in Alaska.

Although there presently are no definitive proposals for new manufacturing facilities

in Alaska, several speculative proposals have been made. These include, for

example, ethanol production and medium density fiberboard. In raw material

requirements, plants manufacturing both products could operate with the quantity

of raw material we show as wood chip and low-grade log production. In all cases,

the critical question is the cost of raw material.

Although costs and prices are not explicit in our model, the medium scenario is our

estimate of the scale of production at which the cost of raw materials delivered to

Alaska mills may be consistent with their ability to compete in product markets. Our

analysis and projection of stumpage prices (see below) suggests that changes in

regional timber markets are reflected in higher prices for raw material in Alaska, as

elsewhere. Producers in Alaska benefit from higher product prices, but they are not

immune from higher costs. The availability and cost of raw material is, however, only

one of several factors that will determine the competitiveness of manufacturing in

Alaska. We also assumed, for example, that all residues from lumber manufacturing

can be marketed (as is the case for Alaska’s competitors); given demand for wood

raw material (especially chips) around the Pacific Rim, this is reasonable. Compared

to mills in the Pacific Northwest, though, Alaska faces diseconomies of small scale

and relatively higher handling and transportation costs for chips.

7
Table 2—Summary of historical and projected periodic Alaska timber

harvest by owner, harvest by product, and production of forest products,

1970-2010 (medium scenario)

Timber harvest by owner

National Other Timber

Perioda Total Forest Private public imports

Million board feet

1970 596.2 539.5 56.7 0

1975 551.5 489.4 9.3 54.6 4.0

1980 603.9 411.0 146.8 46.1 25.5

1985 653.0 280.7 346.5 25.8 34.5

1990 1,029.2 413.5 596.8 21.5 12.5

1995 770.3 191.8 560.8 17.8 24.4

2000 285.0 112.5 156.0 16.0 0

2005 243.2 152.2 75.0 16.0 0

2010 265.3 174.3 75.0 16.0 0

Harvest by product

Saw-log Low grade/utility

Total exports Lumber Pulp log volume

Million board feet, roundwood equivalent

1970 589.5 47.8 251.7

1975 560.9 42.9 282.5 235.5

1980 587.5 149.5 197.7 240.3

1985 620.7 318.4 105.7 196.6

1990 1002.2 558.4 167.4 275.0 7.2

1995 767.7 529.5 90.8 127.8 19.6

2000 285.0 166.0 73.7 0 45.3

2005 243.2 87.3 96.5 0 59.4

2010 265.3 88.6 109.4 0 67.3

Production of forest products

Saw-log Wood chip Pulpwood/utility

exports Lumber Pulp exports log exports

Million

– Million board feet – – Thousand short tons – board feet

1970 47.8 302.0 288.5 8.0

1975 42.9 341.2 298.8 56.5

1980 149.5 239.9 327.0 83.7

1985 318.4 125.7 303.0 4.6

1990 558.4 204.2 379.2 48.5 7.2

1995 529.5 110.9 173.5 109.0 19.6

2000 166.0 95.3 0 130.2 45.3

2005 87.3 133.0 0 186.6 59.4

2010 88.6 158.3 0 226.4 67.3

a Data are 5-year averages calculated with the year shown as the midpoint.

8
Historically, more than half of the timber harvested from the Tongass National Forest

was used as raw material for pulp. In these revised projections, lumber manufacturing

is the primary industry in southeast Alaska; the National Forest timber previously used

for pulp is assumed to be surplus to the requirements of Alaska mills and may be

exported, or left as logging residue. We assumed that changes in policies or management practices (including harvesting practices) will enable this. We estimated the

volume of low-grade saw logs and utility timber that will be produced (or left behind)

as a share of the timber volume necessary to support lumber production. Information

describing the timber inventory and the species and grade distribution of future

timber harvests was used to develop these calculations. This change in the industry

of southeast Alaska shifts the derived demand for National Forest timber from pulp

logs to saw logs. As in our previous projections, the derived demand quantities we

report are expressed in gross volume.

As in our earlier studies, we examined the impact of changes in important components of our analysis. Changes in the derived demand for National Forest timber

resulting from three scenarios based on changes in four key assumptions are shown

in table 1. Table 1 also displays the range of demand for Alaska National Forest3

timber based on divergent views of Alaska’s ability to compete in lumber markets,

(the range of values for the scenario elements is shown in table 3). The alternatives

embed expectations for trends in relative prices and costs (Alaska as compared to its

competitors) and display these expectations in changes in markets shares. Overrun,

as a measure of technical efficiency, also is an important element of these scenarios.

In the scenario labeled low (table 1), higher costs are assumed to limit Alaska’s

share of markets. Historically, harvesting and manufacturing costs in Alaska were

30 to 50 percent higher than those in the Pacific Northwest. In addition to increases

in harvesting costs resulting from changes in management practices, competition for

timber and the elimination of long-term timber sales have increased wood costs for

Alaska mills. The low scenario displays a future in which these disadvantages do

not disappear. In addition, North American producers as a group are not expected to

regain the share of the Japanese market that they had in the 1980s in this scenario.

In contrast, the high scenario presents a future in which Alaska has a more efficient

and more competitive lumber manufacturing industry. Alaska mills are assumed to

be able to compete in both niche markets and, to some extent, broader markets for

lumber. Both the high-grade and the lower grade saw logs that are part of Alaska’s

timber inventory will be valuable raw material for this industry. As in both the medium

and the low scenarios, manufacturing residues and utility logs are assumed to be

exported.

Table 4 presents the results of an analysis of the sensitivity of the projected derived

demand for National Forest timber to changes in individual assumptions, shown in

table 3. In each case, all other values were as in the medium scenario, and only one

element was changed. This approach is similar to that used in Brooks and Haynes

(1994).

3 Historical data in table 1 include timber harvested from

both the Tongass National Forest and the Chugach National

Forest (south-central Alaska); harvest from the Chugach

accounted for less than 3 percent of the total Alaska National

Forest harvest over the period 1985-95.

9
The scenarios display a relatively wide band for possible future demand for National

Forest timber; in proportional terms, this range is similar to the results shown in

Brooks and Haynes (1994). The difference is in scale. The closure of the pulp mills,

combined with changes in lumber markets produces lower projections of demand (as

compared to Brooks and Haynes 1994), even in the high scenario. The trajectory for

Alaska production, timber harvest, and demand for National Forest timber depends

on trends in markets as well as investment, management, and policy decisions.

Therefore, these are not projections of “likely” harvest, and we have not indicated a

“base” (i.e., most likely) projection. Judgments on which of these scenarios is most

plausible will depend, in part, on expectations for developments in Alaska, the Pacific

Northwest, Canada, and Japan. This model provides a framework for making explicit

at least some of these judgments—and their effect on demand.

Table 3—Historic (1990-96) and assumed (1997-2010) values for key elements of the low, medium,

and high scenarios

Alaska share North America share Share of

of North America of Japanese softwood Alaska shipments Overrun in

shipments to Japan lumber imports to export markets lumber production

Year Low Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium High

Thousand board feet

lumber, tally per thousand

–––––––––– Percent –––––––––– ––– Proportion ––– board feet, log scale

1990 6.8 6.8 6.8 85.7 85.7 85.7 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.220 1.220 1.220

1991 5.2 5.2 5.2 86.5 86.5 86.5 .85 .85 .85 1.220 1.220 1.220

1992 4.1 4.1 4.1 86.9 86.9 86.9 .60 .60 .60 1.220 1.220 1.220

1993 4.1 4.1 4.1 84.7 84.7 84.7 .70 .70 .70 1.220 1.220 1.220

1994 3.2 3.2 3.2 79.8 79.8 79.8 .60 .60 .60 1.220 1.220 1.220

1995 1.4 1.4 1.4 72.0 72.0 72.0 .82 .82 .82 1.220 1.220 1.220

1996 .7 .7 .7 70.4 70.4 70.4 .71 .71 .71 1.220 1.220 1.220

1997 .9 1.0 1.5 70.0 70.0 70.0 .85 .75 .65 1.226 1.237 1.247

1998 1.0 1.4 1.8 70.0 70.0 70.0 .85 .75 .65 1.233 1.255 1.274

1999 1.1 1.6 2.0 70.0 70.0 70.5 .85 .75 .65 1.239 1.272 1.301

2000 1.2 1.8 2.2 70.0 72.0 71.0 .85 .75 .65 1.245 1.290 1.329

2001 1.3 2.0 2.4 70.0 72.0 71.5 .85 .75 .65 1.251 1.307 1.356

2002 1.4 2.1 2.5 70.0 72.0 72.0 .85 .75 .65 1.258 1.325 1.383

2003 1.5 2.2 2.7 70.0 72.0 72.5 .85 .75 .65 1.264 1.342 1.410

2004 1.6 2.3 2.9 70.0 72.0 73.0 .85 .75 .65 1.270 1.359 1.437

2005 1.6 2.4 3.1 70.0 72.0 73.5 .85 .75 .65 1.276 1.377 1.464

2006 1.6 2.5 3.3 70.0 72.0 74.0 .85 .75 .65 1.283 1.394 1.491

2007 1.6 2.6 3.5 70.0 72.0 74.5 .85 .75 .65 1.289 1.412 1.519

2008 1.6 2.7 3.6 70.0 72.0 75.0 .85 .75 .65 1.295 1.429 1.546

2009 1.6 2.8 3.8 70.0 72.0 75.5 .85 .75 .65 1.301 1.447 1.573

2010 1.6 2.9 4.0 70.0 72.0 76.0 .85 .75 .65 1.314 1.464 1.600

10
The medium scenario displays the consequences of a set of assumptions that is

intermediate between a set that is more pessimistic (the low scenario) and a set that

is more optimistic (the high scenario). We deliberately avoided labeling any of these

scenarios as a “most likely” projection because of the relatively high degree of uncertainty surrounding developments in Alaska. Our objective is to focus attention on

key issues, such as competitiveness and efficiency, and to translate the range of

views on these issues into a range of values for parameters in our model. The model

is a framework for specifying assumptions about the future for Alaska and displaying

their implications in terms of derived demand for National Forest timber.

Our approach to incorporating and displaying uncertainty has two components. The

first is the scenario analysis and the second is sensitivity analysis in which the effects

of changes in individual elements of the projection are displayed. The sensitivity analysis shows model results to be most sensitive to relatively small changes in Alaska’s

share of North American shipments of softwood lumber to Japan. This highlights the

importance of competitiveness relative to producers in the Pacific Northwest and

British Columbia as one of the central issues facing the Alaska forest sector.

Stumpage Price

Projections

In our past projections of timber harvest (Brooks and Haynes 1990, 1994), we

reported projected prices for Alaska stumpage. These projections were developed

from models linking Alaska prices to timber prices in the Pacific Northwest Region

(Region 6, west side), and to world market pulp prices. In our first effort (Haynes

and Brooks 1990), we estimated a model by using data for the period 1977-86;

in the second effort (Brooks and Haynes 1994), we estimated a revised model by

using data for 1977-90. As part of the efforts to revise our projections, we made

further revisions to this model, including an expanded sample period.

Table 4—Sensitivity analysis: average annual derived demand resulting from changes in selected

assumptionsa

Alaska share North American

of North American share of Alaska shipments Overrun in

shipments Japanese imports to domestic markets lumber production

Medium

Periodb scenarioc Lower Higher Lower Higher Lower Higher Lower Higher

Million board feet

1983-87 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281

1988-92 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414

1993-97 192 191 198 192 192 190 194 192 192

1998-2002 113 108 115 111 113 98 133 118 109

2003-7 152 142 163 148 156 133 178 165 142

2008-10 174 139 199 169 183 152 203 195 159

a See table 3 for data on the scenario elements; the medium scenario is used as the base for comparisons.

b Data reported are annual averages calculated over the period shown.

c See tables 1 and 2.

11
Changes in timber supply in the Pacific Northwest have had a larger impact on

stumpage prices (defined as the average price of timber sold) in Alaska than on

projections of Alaska harvest. Greater response in price than in quantity has been

observed for both timber and timber products in many studies of forest products

markets. We expect Alaska markets to behave similarly. Historically, stumpage prices

in Alaska were about one-third of stumpage prices in the Pacific Northwest, and with

the exception of the period 1990-96, prices in the two regions have moved together.

Parallel movement in prices in the two regions is the result of arbitrage and common

product markets. Arbitrage is the process of buying and selling in two or more

markets to take advantage of—and thereby eliminating—price differences. Some

differences in prices among regions are based on differences in transportation costs

(to markets) and other factors; however, these differences are minimized through

arbitrage.

Changes in the mix of products produced in Alaska affect how closely changes in

Alaska prices match changes in prices in the Pacific Northwest. Prices in the two

regions diverged in 1990-92 and again in 1994-95, mainly because of opposite

movements in prices for pulp and saw logs . Starting in 1990, pulp prices fell from

their peak in 1989 to a level (in real terms) well below the average of the past two

decades. In 1994, pulp prices increased for the first time in 5 years. In contrast,

saw-log and export log prices in both Alaska and the Pacific Northwest increased

over the period 1990-94. Average log prices in the two regions differed markedly

over this period because pulp was a considerably more important product in determining stumpage prices in Alaska compared to the Pacific Northwest. In 1993-94,

as a result of the closure of one Alaska pulp mill, trends in pulp prices were less

important for Alaska, and prices in the two regions showed similar trends.

Our stumpage price projections for Alaska are based on projections of stumpage

prices for the Pacific Northwest and projections of market pulp prices. Prices for

dissolving pulp (the primary product of Alaska pulp mills) closely follow prices for all

market pulp; over the past 15 years, there has been no trend in market pulp prices,

adjusted for inflation, although there have been significant cycles in prices. For the

projections, we assumed that market pulp prices will remain constant at the average

value (in constant dollars) for the period 1975-94 (this is about a 20-percent decline

from the price peak in 1989). Therefore, projected Alaska prices are based on

changes in prices in the Pacific Northwest. Projected prices for timber in the Pacific

Northwest are taken from Haynes and others (1995). As reported previously (Brooks

and Haynes 1994), Alaska stumpage prices are expected to increase in the near

term (1990-95), decline briefly, then increase again, following the pattern of projected

prices in the Pacific Northwest (Haynes and others 1995). Stumpage prices in Alaska

are expected to continue to be well below prices in the Pacific Northwest.

12
The very recent closure of the second pulp mill probably eliminates the need to

include market pulp prices as an explanatory variable in our model of Alaska stumpage prices. Preliminary efforts to substitute chip prices for market pulp prices were

not successful, and for the time being we have used the same model as before. The

old projections for Alaska (Brooks and Haynes 1994, Haynes and Brooks 1990) and

new projections for Alaska stumpage price are shown in table 5. In addition to the

projections of stumpage prices, we have used the assumption that chip prices remain

constant in real terms, at about $88 per short ton. Recent price movements in Alaska

suggest that there may be increasing variability around the long-term average price.

Conclusions Over the period 1990-96, harvest of National Forest timber in Alaska declined by

nearly 80 percent. Factors contributing to this decline included changes in the

structure of the Alaska forest sector, changes in markets for Alaska products, and

changes in conditions faced by Alaska’s competitors. Taking these changes into

account, our revised projections of demand for Alaska National Forest timber over

the next decade (1998-2007) range from 113 to 156 million board feet (see table 6).

Three broadly different scenarios display alternative futures for Alaska and the

resulting demand for National Forest timber. In addition to differences in the total

quantity of timber demanded, these scenarios also differ in the use of the projected

harvest. In the low scenario, less than half of the total harvest is used to manufacture

lumber in Alaska; to provide the high-quality saw logs that are the raw material for

this industry, either a larger area or (as we have assumed) a larger volume must

be harvested. In contrast, in the high scenario the entire saw-log component of the

timber harvest was assumed to be used to manufacture lumber in Alaska (table 6).

Table 5—Projected stumpage prices for Alaska

Haynes and Brooks and

Year Brooks 1990 Haynes 1994 Revised

1990 dollars per thousand board feet

Actual

1990 61

Projections

2000 39 72 83

2010 65 81 96

2020 77 74 103

2030 78 67 102

2040 75 70 99

13
Critiques of projections for Alaska rest on differences in major assumptions. For

example, in the early 1990s the critical issue was projections of Alaska lumber

exports. Gruenfeld Associates4 expected Alaska lumber exports to Japan in the

1990s to average more than 400 million board feet; this implied that Alaska lumber

production in 1990-99 would average more than peak production in the 1970s (lumber

production in Alaska peaked in 1973). In our previous projection (Brooks and Haynes

1994), we expected Alaska lumber exports to increase throughout the 1990s, but to

average roughly 220 million board feet. In the first 7 years of the decade (1990-96),

Alaska lumber exports averaged 118 million board feet. Our projections suggest that

exports will increase from the current (1996) less than 30 million board feet and will

range from 66 to 180 million board feet by 2010. With shipments to domestic markets,

our estimates of Alaska lumber production range from 78 to 261 million board feet

(lumber tally) by 2010. We assume that shipments from Alaska to U.S. markets will

increase (as compared to previous projections), but only in the high scenario do we

expect the sharp increase in Alaska shipments to U.S. markets observed in 1992 to

be sustained.

4 Jay Gruenfeld Associates. November 11, 1991. Demand

for Alaskan logs and lumber in the 1990s. Seattle, WA. On

file with: Social and Economic Values Research Program,

Forestry Sciences Laboratory, 3200 SW Jefferson Way,

Corvallis, OR 97331.

Table 6—Projected, average annual demand for National Forest timber,

by scenario and harvest componenta

Cedar Low grade Total Net

Scenariob Saw log log exports and utilityc harvest saw logd

Million board feet

Low 50 7 56 113 93

Medium 84 8 41 133 109

High 118 9 29 156 128

a Quantities reported are the average annual demand over the period 1998-2007.

b See the text for a description of the assumptions underlying the scenarios.

c “Low grade” refers to saw-log grades that are not used in lumber production in Alaska. The

range of grades included in this category differs by the scenario. See text for further explanation.

d The saw-log portion of harvest, net of utility volume; net saw log was estimated as 82 percent

of total harvest.

14
Timber Supply in the

Pacific Northwest

Alaska gained little from the reductions in public timber supply in the Pacific Northwest during the first part of the 1990s. Although total timber supplies in the Pacific

Northwest were reduced by a third, lumber producers for the export market weathered

these changes relatively better than producers for the domestic market. Although

Alaska did gain some advantage in red cedar (Thuja spp.) markets, and broader

markets during the period of high lumber prices (spring 1993) and high chip prices

(spring 1995), for the most part these gains have not been sustained. For the foreseeable future, as in the past, producers in Alaska will face stiff competition from

larger and generally more efficient producers in the Pacific Northwest and Canada.

Japanese Economic

Growth

The Japanese economy weakened in 1990-92 and was very slow to recover. Japanese lumber consumption fell, offsetting sharp increases in the late 1980s and has

yet to recover to previous levels. Current (FAO 1997) projections suggest that consumption in 2010 will not reach the level reported for 1990. While general economic

recovery in Japan continues to be slow, there also are changes underway in markets

for North American timber. In addition to the revised projection for total Japanese

consumption, we incorporated in our medium projection the assumptions that Japan

will continue to rely on offshore sources for most of its timber consumption, and that

the import mix will increasingly favor lumber over logs. Factors that may make our

medium projection (of Japanese lumber imports and the North American and Alaskan

shares) too optimistic include further weakening of the Japanese market for hemlock

and even greater acceptance of engineered wood products (based on domestic and

imported raw material).

Competing Suppliers Our expectation of modest growth in Alaska lumber exports is based on an outlook

for competing supply regions that reflects their considerable timber volume and

aggressive marketing strategies. Recent data (Japan Lumber Reports 1997) on

Japanese softwood log and lumber imports indicate that Canada continues to be

the most significant competitor supplying lumber to Japan. New Zealand has sharply

increased both log and lumber exports to Japan, and shipments from Chile have

been relatively constant. Although producers in New Zealand and Chile do not

compete directly with Alaska timber in most markets—and supply generally lower

quality logs and lumber—they have a considerable volume of timber that represents

a substitution opportunity for Japanese (and other) consumers. The most dramatic

change in the Japanese market in the last several years is the emergence of European producers as competitive suppliers of lumber and material for engineered wood

products. In 1990, European suppliers accounted for a negligible share of Japanese

lumber imports; in 1996, Europe accounted for 10 percent of total lumber imports and

12 percent of softwood lumber imports. The emergence of these competitors has

resulted in considerably greater diversity in Japanese sources of softwood lumber

and has moderated price increases in response to changes in North American

production and exports.

15
Although we still are unable to do anything but speculate on the future for Russian

timber production, the need for hard currency and consumer goods can be a strong

motivating factor to overcome widely reported institutional and technical difficulties. In

spite of the fact that total production and domestic consumption in Russia dropped

sharply in the 1990s, exports (to all markets) declined less than production. In the

early 1990s, Russian exports to Japan began increasing after a long period of

decline; by 1996, Russian lumber exports to Japan were at an all-time high, and log

exports were at the highest level in nearly a decade. This, in combination with the

production potential elsewhere in the Pacific Rim and Europe, simply weakens the

case for seeing the next decade as a time when lumber production in Alaska can

expand rapidly and find markets at any price.

Prospects for New

Industry

It is clear that southeast Alaska is in the midst of significant structural change in

the forest products industry. With the demise of the pulp mills, the lumber mills face

an uncertain future as they restructure themselves to compete for raw material and

produce a different product mix. One contemporary policy question is how to develop

an integrated mix of different types of industries to increase the value of the available

wood resources. It is clear that markets such as the export log market exist for southeast Alaska, and Alaskan timber producers can compete in those markets. The important questions are, What other markets exist? and To what extent can producers

in southeast Alaska compete in those markets?

There have been several recent suggestions about alternative industries based on

the hope that they might increase the demand for timber (especially National Forest

timber) in southeast Alaska. One of these suggestions is a possible ethanol plant in

southeast Alaska that will use 35 million board feet per year (roundwood equivalent)

of low-grade logs (or mill residues). Although economic feasibility will depend on

capital availability and product prices, such a plant may find it difficult to compete

with the export market for chips. Currently, chip export prices are about twice what

can be paid for feed stock for an economically competitive ethanol plant, given

current market conditions.

There also is hope that various value-added manufacturing industries (such as

furniture) might develop in southeast Alaska. Experience in the Pacific Northwest

suggests, however, that the development of secondary wood products industries

depends on the existence of an appropriate infrastructure and entrepreneurial initiative and skills. In addition, the primary consequence of secondary manufacturing

is an increase in employment (and income) for a given level of timber harvest, not

additional demand for timber. Successful secondary manufacturing requires a primary

industry that provides competitively priced products as raw material; therefore, the

development of further manufacturing in Alaska is more consistent with our high

scenario. Nevertheless, additional, secondary manufacturing in Alaska is possible

at any of the levels of production and demand (for timber) displayed here.

16
Literature Cited Brooks, David J.; Haynes, Richard W. 1990. Timber products output and timber

harvests in Alaska: projections for 1989-2010. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-261.

Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest

Research Station. 48 p.

Brooks, David J.; Haynes, Richard W. 1994. Timber products output and timber

harvests in Alaska: projections for 1992-2010. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-334.

Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest

Research Station. 48 p.

Food and Agriculture Organization. 1997. FAO provisional outlook for global forest

products consumption, production and trade to 2010. Rome: Forestry Department,

Forest Policy and Planning Division. 390 p.

Hartman, David A.; Atkinson, William A.; Bryant, Ben S.; Woodfin, Richard O.

1981. Conversion factors for the Pacific Northwest forest industry. Seattle, WA:

University of Washington, Institute of Forest Resources. 112 p.

Haynes, Richard W. 1990. An analysis of the timber situation in the United States:

1989-2040. Gen. Tech. Rep. RM-199. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of

Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment

Station. 268 p.

Haynes, Richard W.; Adams, Darius; Mills, John. 1995. The 1993 RPA timber

assessment update. Gen. Tech. Rep. RM-GTR-259. Fort Collins, CO: U.S.

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range

Experiment Station. 66 p.

Haynes, Richard W.; Brooks, David J. 1990. An analysis of the timber situation

in Alaska: 1970-2010. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-264. Portland OR: U.S.

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station.

33 p.

Japan Lumber Reports. 1997. Supply of laminated lumber nearly one million cubic

meters.... April 25. No. 256.

Knapp, Gunnar. 1992. Native timber harvests in southeast Alaska. Gen. Tech. Rep.

PNW-GTR-284. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service,

Pacific Northwest Research Station. 48 p.

17
Brooks, David J.; Haynes, Richard W. 1997. Timber products output and timber

harvests in Alaska: projections for 1997-2010. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-409.

Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest

Research Station. 17 p. (Shaw, Charles G., III, tech. coord.; Conservation and

resource assessments for the Tongass land management plan revision).

Projections of Alaska timber products output, the derived demand for raw material, and

timber harvest by owner are developed from a trend-based analysis. These projections

are revisions of projections made in 1990 and again in 1994, and reflect the

consequences of recent changes in the Alaska forest sector and long-term trends in

markets for Alaska products. With the closure of the two southeast Alaska pulp mills,

demand for Alaska National Forest timber now depends on markets for sawn wood

and the ability to export manufacturing residues and lower grade logs. Three

alternative projections are used to display a range of possible future demand. Areas of

uncertainty include the prospect of continuing changes in markets and in conditions

faced by competitors and the speed and magnitude in investment in manufacturing in

Alaska. The sensitivity of model output to changes in key assumptions is displayed.

Keywords: National Forest (Alaska), forest sector models, lumber.

The Forest Service of the U.S. Department of

Agriculture is dedicated to the principle of multiple

use management of the Nation’s forest resources

for sustained yields of wood, water, forage, wildlife,

and recreation. Through forestry research, cooperation with the States and private forest owners, and

management of the National Forests and National

Grasslands, it strives—as directed by Congress—to

provide increasingly greater service to a growing Nation.

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etc.) should contact the USDA’s TARGET Center at

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To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture,

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20250,

or call (800) 245-6340 (voice), or (202) 720-1127 (TDD).

USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer.

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