From: Robert Berman [mailto:bermaneconomics@gmail.com] 

Sent: Monday, November 21, 2011 10:10 AM 

To: Rosenstock, Steven 

Cc: Caskey, John; Eckman, Tom; Cymbalsky, John; Meyers, Aaron; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert 

Berman; Jerry Hodge; Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB); 

mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net; 

tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com; 

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com; 

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L; 

tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, Emily 

(CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; DYoung@energy-solution.com; 

rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific.com; 

carlos.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com; greg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrush@gmail.com; 

Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov; 

gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov; ScottB@LVMetals.com; dave.millure@metglas.com; 

kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; Brian Coffey; Caitlin Johnson; Matthew Nardotti; Michael 

Rivest; Zhimei Luo; Creevy, Jim; mwaltner@nrdc.org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop; 

vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com; gbf1@pge.com; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; 

ahofmann@publicpower.org; pkumar@publicpower.org; adelaski@standardsASAP.org; 

jmauer@standardsasap.org; wes.patterson@us.abb.com; chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com; 

thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org 

Subject: Re: Electric Vehicle Projections 

It sounds like the future load factors may be somewhat unpredictable. Commercial / industrial 

facilities may include employee and office building parking lots where people recharge while at 

work; just as some garages (e.g., IMF and World Bank) provide on-site refueling and service. 

Regards,

Robert A. Berman, Principal

Berman Economics

www.BermanEconomics.com

1915 Grand Court

Vienna, VA 22182

703‐281‐0490

703‐655‐8398 (cell)

BermanEconomics@gmail.com

On Nov 21, 2011, at 9:45 AM, Rosenstock, Steven wrote: 

Mr. Caskey makes excellent points. See below:
http://www.sae.org/mags/aei/enrg/7479

The standard as now written addresses two charging levels:

AC Level 1: 120 V, 1 phase, up to 16 A

AC Level 2: 240 V, 1 phase, up to 80 A

Ford has announced that its Focus Electric will recharge faster than the leaf (it will be 

able to use 6.6 kW with the Level 2 charger, while the Volt and Leaf typically use 3.1 to 

3.3 kW).

Also, with the “DC fast chargers” that could be located at commercial / industrial 

facilities, some of the specifications I have seen have them using 50 or more kW to 

recharge vehicles.

So for certain transformers, in areas with high penetrations of EV’s, loading is likely to 

be higher than predicted, which means that losses could be increased for certain 

transformers. In terms of modeling, one sensitivity analysis could be that X% of 

transformers are loaded higher than 50%, leading to higher transformer losses over the 

30 year time period (lower during the first several years, then about the same for 

several years, and higher during the last 10-15 years).

Steve Rosenstock

Manager, Energy Solutions

Edison Electric Institute

srosenstock@eei.org

202-508-5465

<image001.gif>

From: Caskey, John [mailto:Joh_Caskey@nema.org] 

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 8:09 PM 

To: Eckman, Tom; Rosenstock, Steven; Cymbalsky, John; Meyers, Aaron; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hirsch; 

Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge 

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine 

(EMAB); mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net; tpetr

osino@carolina.rr.com;dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com; chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.

com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com; ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com; Trujillo, Antonio; 

Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry 

L;tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, Emily 

(CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; DYoung@energysolution.com; rick.anderson@faypwc.com;bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific.com; carlo

s.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com; greg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrush@gmail.com; 

Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil 

Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov; ScottB@LVMetals.com; dave.mill

ure@metglas.com; kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; brian.coffey@navigant.com;caitlin.johnso
n@navigant.com; matthew.nardotti@navigant.com; mrivest@navigant.com; zhimei.luo@navigant.com; 

Creevy, 

Jim; mwaltner@nrdc.org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop;vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com; gbf1

@pge.com; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; ahofmann@publicpower.org; pkumar@publicpower.org; adela

ski@standardsASAP.org; jmauer@standardsasap.org;wes.patterson@us.abb.com; chad.kennedy@us.schn

eider-electric.com; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections

 

There are two fundamental problems with the Council’s analysis. First, the analysis looks at both 

110 volt 15 amp charging and 220 volt 30 amp charging. Level 1 charging only requires less than 

2 kW and may not significantly impact transformer loading. However, most EV proponents 

today are looking at Level 2 charging (up to 20 kW) or even Level 3 charging (over 20 kW). The 

analysis only looks at impacts at 6 kW not the potential 20 kW. The higher kW can impact 

existing transformer loading. 

 

Second, the average kW impact on EV’s may be relatively small. But some transformers in 

affluent areas (high Prius adoption) may be over loaded while transformer loading in less 

affluent areas may not increase. Typical distribution systems in Virginia have roughly 6-8 15 kW 

homes connected to a 75-100 kVA transformer. If just two or three of these 6-8 homes charge 

EV’s at the same time using 6kW chargers, that increased load can cause transformer failure 

even if the average load increase in the region is small. This can be particularly bad with electric 

heating loads during evening hours. 

 

I personally don’t think that EV loading on transformers will significantly impact our analyses 

and discussions, but I do think that utilities will need to carefully track the penetration of EV’s 

on individual circuits and transformers; particularly with Level 2 charging. 

 

John F. Caskey, CEM

Assistant Vice President, Industry Operations

National Electrical Manufacturers Assoc. (NEMA)

1300 North 17th Street - Suite 1752 

Rosslyn, VA 22209

john.caskey@nema.org

703-841-3233 Voice

703-841-3333 FAX

703-350-6886 Cell

From: Eckman, Tom [mailto:teckman@nwcouncil.org] 

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 6:54 PM 

To: 'Rosenstock, Steven'; Cymbalsky, John; Meyers, Aaron; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hirsch; 

Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; Caskey, John 

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine 

(EMAB); mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com; maheshsampat@bellsout

h.net;tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com; chris.bro

wn@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com; ted.johnstone@cogentpowerin

c.com; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry 

L; tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, 

Emily (CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; DYoung@energy-
solution.com; rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific

.com; carlos.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com;greg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrus

h@gmail.com; Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil 

Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov;ScottB@LVMetals.co

m; dave.millure@metglas.com; kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; brian.coffey@navi

gant.com; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com; matthew.nardotti@navigant.com;mrivest@navigant.co

m; zhimei.luo@navigant.com; Creevy, 

Jim; mwaltner@nrdc.org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower

.com; gbf1@pge.com;chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; ahofmann@publicpower.org; pkumar@pu

blicpower.org; adelaski@standardsASAP.org; jmauer@standardsasap.org; wes.patterson@us.ab

b.com;chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com; thomas.patzner@us.schneiderelectric.com; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections 

 

Aaron/Steve R., et al: 

 

As part of developing the last Pacific Northwest Power Plan, the Council analyzed the potential 

impact of electric vehicles on PNW loads through 2030. We created three scenarios, ranging 

from a low market share of 20% of cumulative new sales by 2030 to a high of 48% of 

cumulative new sales by 2030. For comparison, my review of the spreadsheet that John sent 

shows EV’s and PHEV’s comprising just over 4 % of all new vehicle sales between 2010 and 

2030, so our “low” case scenario is five times as high as the one assumed in the AEO. Bottom 

line, is that under the Council’s low case scenario, PNW “off-peak” loads would increase about 

800 MW (4% above the base forecast) while under the high case they would increase by just 

under 2000 MW (10% above the base forecast). Both scenarios assumed that 95% of the 

charging would take place “off-peak.” Given this rather modest impact in off-peak demand (In 

the PNW peak loads are typically 1.8 times off-peak loads) it would seem very unlikely that 

average transformer loading will increase dramatically, especially given (as has been noted by 

Steve R. in prior e-mail) the impact of other federal appliance efficiency standards and the 

deployment of smart grid over this same time frame. 

 

I’ve attached presentation staff made to the Council during the plan’s development that 

discusses the assumptions and results of this analysis in more detail. 

 

Tom 

 

Tom Eckman 

Manager, Conservation Resources 

Northwest Power and Conservation Council 

851 SW 6th Avenue, Suite 1100 

Portland, OR 97204 

Office - 503.222.5161 

Mobile - 503.803.5047 

Fax - 503.820.2370 

 

 
 

From: Rosenstock, Steven [mailto:SRosenstock@eei.org] 

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 10:54 AM 

To: Cymbalsky, John; Meyers, Aaron; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry 

Hodge; John Caskey 

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine 

(EMAB); mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com; maheshsampat@bellsout

h.net;tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com; chris.bro

wn@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com; ted.johnstone@cogentpowerin

c.com; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry 

L; tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, 

Emily (CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; DYoung@energysolution.com; rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific

.com; carlos.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com;greg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrus

h@gmail.com; Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil 

Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov;ScottB@LVMetals.co

m; dave.millure@metglas.com; kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; brian.coffey@navi

gant.com; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com; matthew.nardotti@navigant.com;mrivest@navigant.co

m; zhimei.luo@navigant.com; Jim 

Creevy; mwaltner@nrdc.org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop; Eckman, 

Tom; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com; gbf1@pge.com;chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; ahofma

nn@publicpower.org; pkumar@publicpower.org; adelaski@standardsASAP.org; jmauer@stand

ardsasap.org; wes.patterson@us.abb.com;chad.kennedy@us.schneiderelectric.com; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections 

 

As a point of reference, the spreadsheet that Mr. Cymbalsky sent out (thank you, John) showed 

estimated sales of 24,900 EV’s and PHEV’s in 2011. Based on the following articles: 

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/02/us-tesla-idUSTRE7A18RJ20111102 

 

http://detnews.com/article/20111102/AUTO01/111020344/Chevy-Volt-sees-best-sales-yet--

Nissan-Leaf-still-ahead 

 

As of October 31, 2011, there have been 13,051 Leafs and Volts sold or leased in the US so far 

in 2011. I could not find specific numbers for the Tesla Roadster or conversions of gasoline 

vehicles to PHEV’s in 2011, so I will make a semi-educated guess that other vehicle sales would 

raise the number to about 13,500 EV’s and PHEV’s sold in 2011 as of 10/31/2011. 

 

Will the number rise to 24,900 by the end of this year? I will leave that to the forecasters..... :-) 

 

Steve Rosenstock 

Manager, Energy Solutions 

Edison Electric Institute 

srosenstock@eei.org

202-508-5465 
 

<image001.gif> 

 

From: Cymbalsky, John [mailto:John.Cymbalsky@EE.Doe.Gov] 

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 12:20 PM 

To: 'Meyers, Aaron'; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; John Caskey 

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine 

(EMAB); mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com; maheshsampat@bellsout

h.net;tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com; chris.bro

wn@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com; ted.johnstone@cogentpowerin

c.com; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry 

L; tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, 

Emily (CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; Rosenstock, 

Steven; DYoung@energysolution.com; rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific

.com; carlos.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com;greg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrus

h@gmail.com; Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil 

Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov;ScottB@LVMetals.co

m; dave.millure@metglas.com; kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; brian.coffey@navi

gant.com; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com; matthew.nardotti@navigant.com;mrivest@navigant.co

m; zhimei.luo@navigant.com; Jim 

Creevy; mwaltner@nrdc.org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop; Teckman@nwcouncil.or

g; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com;gbf1@pge.com; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; ahofmann

@publicpower.org; pkumar@publicpower.org; adelaski@standardsASAP.org; jmauer@standard

sasap.org; wes.patterson@us.abb.com;chad.kennedy@us.schneiderelectric.com; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections 

 

Aaron et al: 

 

Attached is the official USG projections for LDV sales from EIA, the independent statistical 

agency of the USG from which our electricity projections are based. 

 

John 

 

From: Meyers, Aaron [mailto:Aaron.Meyers@CooperIndustries.com] 

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 12:09 PM 

To: Steve Nadel; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; John Caskey 

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine 

(EMAB); mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com; maheshsampat@bellsout

h.net;tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com; chris.bro

wn@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com; ted.johnstone@cogentpowerin

c.com; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry 

L; tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, 

Emily (CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; Cymbalsky, 

John; srosenstock@eei.org; DYoung@energy-
solution.com; rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific

.com; carlos.gaytan@ge.com;artrosenfeld@gmail.com; greg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrus

h@gmail.com; Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil 

Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov;kcoughlin@lbl.gov; ScottB@LVMetals.co

m; dave.millure@metglas.com; kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; brian.coffey@navi

gant.com; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com;matthew.nardotti@navigant.com; mrivest@navigant.co

m; zhimei.luo@navigant.com; Jim 

Creevy; mwaltner@nrdc.org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop; Teckman@nwcouncil.or

g;vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com; gbf1@pge.com; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; ahofmann

@publicpower.org; pkumar@publicpower.org; adelaski@standardsASAP.org; jmauer@standard

sasap.org;wes.patterson@us.abb.com; chad.kennedy@us.schneiderelectric.com; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org

Subject: Electric Vehicle Projections 

 

Dear Distribution Transformer Efficiency Subcommittee, et al, 

 

The following link is to an article published by the NEMA Intelligence Portal and provides some 

insight into the projected impact of electric vehicles: 

 

http://portal.nema.org/Pages/document.aspx?docId=3156&LoadSource=LexisNexis&utm_mediu

m=email&utm_campaign=digest_2011-11-

17&utm_source=aaron.meyers@cooperindustries.com

 

Most interestingly, by 2025, one in seven new cars is projected to be a zero-emission or plug-in 

hybrid vehicle, and 1.4 million are projected to be on the road in California alone by 2025. I 

don’t see how we can ignore the impact of this significant change. Meeting the charging needs 

will dramatically change the loading assumptions in the current analysis. As someone pointed 

out at the October meeting, the reference loading level (50%) is part of the testing standard and 

is not on the table for negotiating purposes, so this is just another non-trivial factor that must be 

considered outside of the existing analysis results. 

 

Keep in mind that for two transformers having the same efficiency at 50% load, the amorphous 

one will be more efficient at low loading levels whereas the grain-oriented one will be more 

efficient at higher loading levels. Looking at Cooper’s data, the ratio of no-load to load losses at 

100% load on a typical DOE compliant grain-oriented transformer today is 6:1, and on a Cooper 

amorphous unit it’s about 10:1. To make an analogy, if no-load losses were a slice of pie, the 

load losses would be the rest of the entire pie! Load losses are a huge lever and cannot be tossed 

aside as if merely a nuisance! Most of the discussion thus far has been squarely focused on noload losses. We need to make sure we aren’t spending four dollars to save fifty cents. 

 

Best Regards, 

Aaron