APPENDIX F-F 

Predicted Employment and Economic 

Impact Analysis

 

Thomas Carroll and 

Associates, Ltd

8935 South Pecos Road Phone: (702) 263-8044

Suite 22-C Fax: (702) 263-8740

Henderson, NV 89074 

E-mail: Statisitcalforensics@gmail.com

Web-page: thomascarrollandassociates.com

 

PREPARED BY THOMAS CARROLL & ASSOCIATES 10/06/2010

DESERT XPRESS: 

PREDICTED EMPLOYMENT AND 

ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS

At the request of DesertXpress, Thomas Carroll and Associates' chief economist 

Thomas Carroll (Ph.D., Economics, Syracuse University, 1973); with assistance from 

associate economist Michael Madison (B.A., Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 

2010), prepared the following employment and economic impact analysis of the proposed 

Desert Xpress high speed rail project. The following section provides a synopsis of Dr. 

Carroll's credentials for preparing such a report. To view Dr. Carroll's cv visit 

www.thomascarrollandassociates.com. 

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DESERT XPRESS:

EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS

 PREPARED BY THOMAS CARROLL & ASSOCIATES 10/06/2010 1 

THOMAS CARROLL & ASSOCIATES, FOUNDED 1995 

Chief Economist Thomas M. Carroll, Ph.D., Economics, Syracuse University, 1973, has 

been a professor of economics at UNLV since August 1986 and chief economist at Thomas 

Carroll and Associates since its incorporation in 1995. Dr. Carroll participated in his first 

economic impact study while a Ph. D. student at Syracuse University when he worked as a 

research associate and later a research fellow at the Educational Policy Research Center (EPRC) 

in 1973. While at EPRC Dr. Carroll consulted with the US Office of Education on the Nixon 

Administration initiative, Career Education. After leaving Syracuse University Dr. Carroll spent 

two years at California State University Northridge, followed by eleven years at Memphis State 

University (now the University of Memphis). At Memphis Dr. Carroll completed a study on the 

employment impact of the 1964 Civil Rights Act on Memphis, Tennessee, employment patterns 

(for the Memphis State University Center for Manpower Research) and helped design a 

congestion alleviation charge for the Inland Waterway System for the Memphis State Bureau of 

Business Research. After coming to UNLV in 1986, Dr. Carroll worked closely with the late 

director of the Center for Business and Economic Research, Keith Schwer. Together they 

studied the economic impacts of the Nevada Test Site, Nellis Air Force Base, the Fallon Naval Air 

Station and the Hawthorne Armory as part of the Special Nevada Report ("The Nevada Regional 

Models: Forecasting and Simulation," Nevada Review of Business and Economics, Fall, 1990). 

Drs. Carroll and Schwer also collaborated on "Estimating the Employment Impacts of a Hub 

Airline Serving a Tourist Destination: The Case of America West Airline and Las Vegas Nevada," 

International Journal of Public Administration, 1994. Dr. Schwer and I collaborated with Dr. 

William T. White on a report of the impact of a water-imposed secession of construction on the 

Clark County economy on behalf of the Southern Nevada Water Authority. 

Our consulting practice has performed economic analysis for parties (either plaintiffs or 

defendants) engaged in personal injury, wrongful deaths, discrimination, business damage, 

breach of contract, eminent domain and construction defect litigation. We also evaluate 

business startups, product development, and economic growth issues for public and private 

clients.

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DESERT XPRESS:

EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS

 PREPARED BY THOMAS CARROLL & ASSOCIATES 10/06/2010 2 

SUMMARY

To estimate the employment impact of the Desert Xpress train proposed to 

connect Las Vegas Nevada and Victorville California we used weekly earnings 

data from the Monthly Earner Study of the Current Population Survey to predict 

the number of full time equivalent jobs in construction and real estate for Clark 

County Nevada and San Bernardino County California for 2011, 2012, and 2013.

We extracted monthly data for primary employment (agriculture, mining, 

construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade and military bases) and for 

secondary employment (retail trade and services) from the Current Population 

Survey from May 20041

Primary Employment

through December 2009. We then arranged the data by 

month and place (either metropolitan area or rural area of each state) to generate 

a panel data set. We used a random effects regression to predict the change in 

secondary employment due to variations in basic (e.g., construction or real 

estate) employment. We inferred that each new basic job would create 0.94

additional secondary jobs. Our preliminary estimates are that the construction

phase of the Desert Xpress project will generate 17,469 primary jobs (payroll = 

$1.33 billion) in Clark County and 28,384 primary jobs (payroll = $2.16 billion) in 

San Bernardino County. Expected secondary employment is 16,432 (payroll = 

$852 million) for Clark County and 26,699 (payroll = $1.52 billion) for San 

Bernardino County. Summing yields 88,984 total jobs with projected payrolls of 

$5.87 billion.

2011 2012 2013 3 yr. Total

Clark County 

Employment 3,613 8,763 5,093 17,469

Payrolls $266,013,520 $665,033,800 $399,020,280 $1,330,067,600

San Bernardino County 

Employment 5,898 14,238 8,248 28,384

Payrolls $432,063,600 $1,080,159,000 $648,095,400 $2,160,318,000

Total 

Employment 9,511 23,001 13,341 45,853

Payrolls $698,077,120 $1,745,192,800 $1,047,115,680 $3,490,385,600

 

1 The indicators for metropolitan areas, drawn from the 2000 Census, were modified between April and May 2004. 

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DESERT XPRESS:

EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS

 PREPARED BY THOMAS CARROLL & ASSOCIATES 10/06/2010 3 

Secondary Employment

 2011 2012 2013 3 yr. Total

Clark County 

Employment 3,398 8,243 4,791 16,432

Payrolls $170,905,624 $426,334,386 $255,213,368 $852,453,377

San Bernardino County 

Employment 5,548 13,393 7,758 26,699

Payrolls 307,765,236 $763,950,588 $455,791,189 $1,527,507,013

Total 

Employment 8,946 21,636 12,549 43,131

Payrolls $478,670,860 $1,190,284,974 $711,004,557 $2,379,960,390

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DESERT XPRESS:

EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS

 PREPARED BY THOMAS CARROLL & ASSOCIATES 10/06/2010 4 

ASSUMPTIONS

DesertXpress provided the following assumptions upon which we have based our

calculations. The construction phase of the Desert Xpress project is to be completed over a 

three year period, with 20% of the work to be done in 2011, 50% in 2012, and the 

remaining 30% in 2013. The budgetary assumptions for work to be done and the percent of 

that budget going to labor can be found in the following table. The labor force associated 

with the Civil/Track Work, Electrical Work, Maintenance Facilities, Control/Signal Work, 

and Stations portions of the project are to be staffed entirely by union employees. Project 

Management and Environmental Mitigation work will be staffed by white collar non union 

labor. 

Description

Clark County, 

NV

% to 

Primary 

Labor

Amount to 

Primary Labor

San 

Bernardino 

County, CA 

% to 

Primary 

Labor

Amount to 

Primary Labor

Civil/Track Work $1,017,714,000 80% $814,171,200 $1,890,041,000 80% $1,512,032,800 

Electrical Work 

 Primary Distribution $39,900,000 60% $23,940,000 $74,100,000 60% $44,460,000 

 Traction Power and $136,150,000 60% $81,690,000 $252,850,000 60% $151,710,000 

 Overhead Contact Systems 

Maintenance Facilities 

Las Vegas (Wigwam) Facility $23,718,000 60% $14,230,800 

Baker MOW Facility $4,952,000 60% $2,971,200 

Victorville (Site 3) Facility $91,541,000 60% $54,924,600 

Control/Signal Work $155,050,000 60% $93,030,000 $287,950,000 60% $172,770,000 

Train Sets/Equipment $179,200,000 0% $332,800,000 0% 

Stations 

Las Vegas Central Station $212,726,000 60% $127,635,600 

Victorville Station (Site 3) $242,368,000 60% $145,420,800 

Project Management 

Project Management Oversight $160,000,000 80% $128,000,000 $40,000,000 80% $32,000,000 

Professional Services $40,000,000 80% $32,000,000 $10,000,000 80% $8,000,000 

Contingency $77,000,000 0% $154,244,000 0% 

Environmental Mitigation $21,210,000 60% $12,726,000 $42,421,000 60% $25,452,600 

ROW Acquisition $52,880,000 5% $2,644,000 $211,520,000 5% $10,576,000 

Total $2,115,548,000 $1,330,067,600 $3,634,787,000 $2,160,318,000 

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DESERT XPRESS:

EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS

 PREPARED BY THOMAS CARROLL & ASSOCIATES 10/06/2010 5 

DETAILED EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS

Table 1a on page 9 shows the calculation of primary (i.e., construction and real-estate) 

employment for 2011, 2012 and 2013 in Clark County. The first column shows each type of 

expenditure and the expenditures on primary labor are shown for 2011 (column 2), 2012 

(column 5), and 2013 (column 8). The average wage rate for the construction industry in 

Nevada (including fringe benefits) for 2011 (column 3), 2012 (column 6) and 2013 (column 

9) are taken from page 23. The first equation on page 20 finds a 4.5% higher wage for union 

workers in the construction industry living in Nevada than the national average. Dividing 

the expenditure on labor by the average wage rate yields the employment for each 

expenditure class by year. Adding the employment for each category yields total 

employment of 17,469 for the three-year period. Adding the total wage payments for each 

year yields the 3 year increase in wages for primary workers, equal to $1,330,067,600.

Table 1b on page 10 continues the analysis for Clark County by evaluating the secondary 

employment (e.g., retail and service workers) that would be generated by the construction 

employment. The first equation on page 22 implies that for each extra primary worker, 

labor markets tend to generate an extra 0.94 secondary workers. Multiplying the primary 

employment in Table 1a by 0.94 generates the predicted secondary employment in 2011 

(3,398), 2012 (8,243) and 2013 (4,791) for a total of 16,432. The descriptive statistics on 

page 21, under the heading Secondary Workers, imply that the average wage rate for 

secondary workers in 2009 was $795.38 ($41,360 in full-time equivalent earnings). The 

equation on the top of page 21 implies that the elasticity of the wage rate for secondary 

workers with respect to the cost of living is 0.937. Multiplying this elasticity by the 

predicted consumer price index for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 (as shown on pages 27 and 

28) implies that the average earnings (including fringe benefits) for secondary workers will 

be $50,295 in 2011, $51,720 in 2012, and $53,270 in 2013. Multiplying secondary 

employment for each year by the average secondary pay for each year implies total wage 

payments of $170,905,624 in 2011, $426,334,386 in 2012, and $255,213,368 in 2013, for a 

total pay to secondary workers equal to $852,453,377. Adding primary and secondary 

workers together, we predict that total Clark County employment generated by Desert 

Xpress will be 33,901 workers, and a total of $2,182,520,977 in payrolls. 

Table 2a on page 11 computes the impact of construction expenditures on construction 

wages and employment for San Bernardino County. Using the average annual earnings of 

construction and real-estate workers, we predict 5,898 jobs in 2011 ($432,063,600 in 

payrolls), 14,238 jobs in 2012 ($1,080,159,000 in payrolls), and 8,248 jobs in 2013 

($648,095,400 in payrolls) in 2013. Summing yields 28,384 jobs and a total construction 

payroll of $2,160,318,000 over the three-year construction period.

Table 2b on page 12 performs the same calculations for secondary employment for San 

Bernardino County implying 5,548 jobs in 2011 (payroll of $307,765,236), 13,393 jobs in 

2012 (payroll of $763,950,588) and, 7,758 jobs in 2013 (payroll of $455,791,189), for a 

total of 26,699 secondary jobs ($1,527,507,013 in wages and fringe benefits). Adding 

construction and secondary employment effects, we predict an addition of 55,083 total jobs, 

with a payroll of $3,687,825,013 for San Bernardino County.

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DESERT XPRESS:

EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS

 PREPARED BY THOMAS CARROLL & ASSOCIATES 10/06/2010 6 

Table 3a on page 13 combines construction expenditures for Clark and San Bernardino 

Counties for 2011, finding 9,511 total construction jobs, with earnings (wages and fringe 

benefits) equal to $698,077,120. Table 3b on page 14 makes the same computation for 

2012, finding 23,001 total construction jobs, with earnings (wages and fringe benefits) 

equal to $1,745,192,800. Similarly, table 3c from page 15 combines construction 

expenditures for Clark and San Bernardino Counties for 2013, finding 13,341 total 

construction jobs, with earnings (wages and fringe benefits) equal to $1,047,115,680. The 

projected 3 year increase to construction jobs for Clark and San Bernardino Counties are 

45,853 with earnings (wages and fringe benefits) equal to $3,490,385,600. 

Table 3d on page 16 shows the combined secondary employment for 2011, equal to 8,946

secondary jobs and payrolls of $478,670,860. Table 3e from page 17 shows the combined 

secondary employment for 2012, equal to 21,636 secondary jobs and payrolls of 

$1,190,284,974. Table 3f from page 18 shows the combined secondary employment for 

2013, equal to 12,549 secondary jobs and payrolls of $711,004,557. The projected 3 year 

increase to secondary jobs for Clark and San Bernardino Counties are 43,131 with earnings 

(wages and fringe benefits) equal to $2,379,960,390. Adding the total construction and 

secondary employment yields 88,984 total jobs and $5,870,345,990 total wages and fringe 

benefits.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF WAGES AND EMPLOYMENT

The first equation on page 19 predicts the average hourly wage rate for construction 

workers based on the monthly consumer price index and the monthly unemployment rate. 

This equation predicts that for each 1% increase in the cost of living (the consumer price 

index), the average wage rate for workers in the construction industry increases by 1.05% 

(which is significantly greater than zero but not significantly greater than 1). The 

descriptive statistics after the first equation predicts that the average weekly pay for 

construction workers in 2009 was $851.40.

The second equation on page 19 predicts the average hourly wage rate for union 

construction workers based on the monthly consumer price index and the monthly 

unemployment rate. This equation predicts that for each 1% increase in the cost of living

(the consumer price index), the average wage rate for workers in the construction industry 

increases by 1.01%. The descriptive statistics after the first equation predicts that the 

average weekly pay for union construction workers in 2009 was $1,073.93.

The first equation on page 20 predicts the average hourly wage rate for union construction 

workers based on the monthly consumer price index, the monthly unemployment rate, and 

an indicator variable for those living in Nevada. This equation predicts that for each 1% 

increase in the cost of living (the consumer price index), the average wage rate for union

workers in the construction industry increases by 1%. The equation also predicts that 

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DESERT XPRESS:

EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS

 PREPARED BY THOMAS CARROLL & ASSOCIATES 10/06/2010 7 

living in Nevada has a statistically significant and positive 4.5% affect on the earnings of 

these workers2

The second equation on page 20 predicts that the elasticity of hourly wages in the realestate industry with respect to the cost of living is 0.87. The descriptive statistics below the 

second equation imply that in 2009 the average weekly pay in the real-estate industry was 

$802.60. 

. 

The first equation on page 21 implies that the elasticity of the average wage rate for 

workers in secondary jobs (e.g., retail trade and services) with respect to the cost of living is 

0.937. The descriptive statistics imply that the average weekly pay was $795.38. 

The second equation on page 21 implies that secondary workers living in California earn on 

average 10.3% more in wages than the national average3

The first equation on page 22 shows the panel regression (random effects model) that 

predicts the number of secondary jobs for each job in the primary (export) sector: 

agriculture, mining, construction, manufacturing and military bases. The data relate the 

number of basic and secondary jobs across 330 locations (metropolitan areas and the rural 

areas of states) between May 2004 and December 2009. The equation indicates that if one 

city creates one additional basic job (e.g., from government financed construction), that city 

will generate an additional 0.94 job in the secondary sector. Of the unexplained (stochastic) 

variation in secondary employment, 95.4% is due to difference in labor markets, while only 

4.6% is due to variations over time within labor markets.

. This equation also predicts that 

for each 1% increase in the cost of living (the consumer price index), the average wage rate 

for secondary workers increases by .92%, when the affect of living in California is accounted 

for. 

PREDICTING WAGE AND EMPLOYMENT CHANGES

Page 23 shows our calculations of future annual wage and fringe benefits for construction, 

real estate, and secondary workers. From page 25 we find that the fringe benefit rate in 

2009 was 23.78%; because this time-series takes a random walk, we assume that the fringe 

benefit rate will remain constant through 2013. On page 27 we estimate that the inflation 

rate will average 2.71% in 2011, 3.02% in 2012, and 3.20% in 2013. Starting with the 

average construction (industry) annual wage of $44,273, we add the fringe benefits and 

predict construction wages from 2010 through 2013, based on an elasticity of 1.0545. We 

take the 2009 average union construction wage of $55,844 (national average) and $58,362 

(adjusted for living in Nevada), adjust for elasticity of 1.01 and 1 respectively, and apply the 

fringe benefit rate. We take the average real-estate (industry) wage of $41,735, apply the 

fringe benefit rate, and adjust for an elasticity of 0.8712. Finally, we start with the average 

 

2 Living in California does not have a statistically significant impact on wages for union construction workers

3 Living in Nevada does not have a statistically significant impact on wages for secondary workers

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DESERT XPRESS:

EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS

 PREPARED BY THOMAS CARROLL & ASSOCIATES 10/06/2010 8 

secondary wage of $41,360 (nationally) and $45,616 (adjusted for living in California), add 

fringe benefits, and then adjust future wage predictions by the elasticity of 0.94 for each. 

Pages 24 and 25 show the historical data on personal income, including wage and salaries 

and fringe benefits that we used to compute the fringe benefit rate. Pages 26 and 27 show 

the consumer price index from April 1913 to 2010, the inflation rate (the percent change in 

the consumer price index) from April 1914 to April 2010, and the unemployment rate from 

May 1948 to May 2010. Page 27 shows the predicted future inflation, cpi, and 

unemployment rates, based on the equations on pages 29 and 30. 

Page 29 shows that the inflation rate does not follow a random walk and that it can be 

predicted by the equation 1 ˆ 1.53% .5514 t t dpci dcpi = + − , where ˆ t dcpi is the predicted 

inflation rate for the current year and dcpit-1 is the inflation rate for the previous year. Page 

30 confirms that the unemployment rate does not follow a random walk and that it can be 

predicted by the equation 1 12 ˆ 1.86% .682 .177( ) t t tt ue ue ue ue =+ + − − −− , where ˆ t ue is the 

predicted unemployment rate in year t, uet-1 is the unemployment rate in the previous year, 

and uet-2 is the unemployment rate two years ago. 

Finally, page 31 confirms that the fringe benefit rate follows a random walk, implying that 

the best predictor of future fringe benefit rates is its last known value, which was 23.78% in 

2009.

F-F-9
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 9

Table 1a: Clark County 3 Year Effect to Primary Employment and Output

Description

Amount to 

Primary Labor in 

2011

2011 Average 

Annual Wage

2011 Increase in 

Primary Workers

Amount to 

Primary Labor 

in 2012

2012 

Average 

Annual 

Wage

2012 Increase in 

Primary 

Workers

Amount to 

Primary Labor 

in 2013

2013 

Average 

Annual 

Wage

2013 Increase in 

Primary Workers

Civil/Track Work $ 162,834,240 $76,146 2,138 $ 407,085,600 $78,457 5,189 $ 244,251,360 $80,974 3,016

Electrical Work

 Primary Distribution $ 4,788,000 $76,146 63 $ 11,970,000 $78,457 153 $ 7,182,000 $80,974 89

 Traction Power and $ 16,338,000 $76,146 215 $ 40,845,000 $78,457 521 $ 24,507,000 $80,974 303

 Overhead Contact Systems

Maintenance Facilities

Las Vegas (Wigwam) Facility $ 2,846,160 $76,146 37 $ 7,115,400 $78,457 91 $ 4,269,240 $80,974 53

Baker MOW Facility

Victorville (Site 3) Facility

Control/Signal Work $ 18,606,000 $76,146 244 $ 46,515,000 $78,457 593 $ 27,909,000 $80,974 345

Train Sets/Equipment

Stations

Las Vegas Central Station $ 25,527,120 $76,146 335 $ 63,817,800 $78,457 813 $ 38,290,680 $80,974 473

Victorville Station (Site 3)

Project Management

Project Management Oversight $ 25,600,000 $60,773 421 $ 64,000,000 $62,711 1,021 $ 38,400,000 $64,825 592

Professional Services $ 6,400,000 $60,773 105 $ 16,000,000 $62,711 255 $ 9,600,000 $64,825 148

Contingency

Environmental Mitigation $ 2,545,200 $60,773 42 $ 6,363,000 $62,711 101 $ 3,817,800 $64,825 59

ROW Acquisition $ 528,800 $47,098 11 $ 1,322,000 $48,339 27 $ 793,200 $49,685 16

Total $ 266,013,520 3,613 $ 665,033,800 8,763 $ 399,020,280 5,093

3 year increase in Primary Workers 17,469

3 year increase to wages to Primary Workers $ 1,330,067,600

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Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

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10/6/2010 10

Table 1b: Clark County 3 Year Effect to Secondary Employment and Output

Description

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 2011

2011 Average 

Annual Wage

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs 

in 2011

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 2012

2012 

Average 

Annual 

Wage

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs 

in 2012

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 2013

2013 

Average 

Annual 

Wage

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs in 

2013

Civil/Track Work 2,011 $50,295 $ 101,168,635 4,881 $51,720 $ 252,427,410 2,837 $53,270 $ 151,144,154

Electrical Work

 Primary Distribution 59 $50,295 $ 2,974,776 144 $51,720 $ 7,422,410 83 $53,270 $ 4,444,263

 Traction Power and 202 $50,295 $ 10,150,771 490 $51,720 $ 25,327,345 285 $53,270 $ 15,165,073

 Overhead Contact Systems

Maintenance Facilities

Las Vegas (Wigwam) Facility 35 $50,295 $ 1,768,314 85 $51,720 $ 4,412,148 50 $53,270 $ 2,641,830

Baker MOW Facility

Victorville (Site 3) Facility

Control/Signal Work 230 $50,295 $ 11,559,876 558 $51,720 $ 28,843,224 324 $53,270 $ 17,270,251

Train Sets/Equipment

Stations

Las Vegas Central Station 315 $50,295 $ 15,859,956 765 $51,720 $ 39,572,419 445 $53,270 $ 23,694,494

Victorville Station (Site 3)

Project Management

Project Management Oversight 396 $50,295 $ 19,928,627 960 $51,720 $ 49,650,098 557 $53,270 $ 29,681,869

Professional Services 99 $50,295 $ 4,982,157 240 $51,720 $ 12,412,524 139 $53,270 $ 7,420,467

Contingency

Environmental Mitigation 39 $50,295 $ 1,981,342 95 $51,720 $ 4,936,306 55 $53,270 $ 2,951,027

ROW Acquisition 11 $50,295 $ 531,169 26 $51,720 $ 1,330,501 15 $53,270 $ 799,938

Total 3,398 $ 170,905,624 8,243 $ 426,334,386 4,791 $ 255,213,368

3 year increase in Secondary Workers 16,432

3 year increase to wages to Secondary Workers $ 852,453,377

3 year increase to all workers 33,901

3 year increase to wages to all workers $ 2,182,520,977

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Desert Xpress: 

Economic Impact Analysis

Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 11

Table 2a: San Bernadino County 3 Year Effect to Primary Employment and Output

Description

Amount to 

Primary Labor in 

2011

2011 Average 

Annual Wage

2011 Increase 

in Primary 

Workers

Amount to 

Primary Labor in 

2012

2012 

Average 

Annual 

Wage

2012 Increase 

in Primary 

Workers

Amount to 

Primary Labor 

in 2013

2013 

Average 

Annual 

Wage

2013 Increase in 

Primary Workers

Civil/Track Work $ 302,406,560 $73,936 4,090 $ 756,016,400 $76,591 9,871 $ 453,609,840 $79,343 5,717

Electrical Work

 Primary Distribution $ 8,892,000 $73,936 120 $ 22,230,000 $76,591 290 $ 13,338,000 $79,343 168

 Traction Power and $ 30,342,000 $73,936 410 $ 75,855,000 $76,591 990 $ 45,513,000 $79,343 574

 Overhead Contact Systems

Maintenance Facilities

Las Vegas (Wigwam) Facility

Baker MOW Facility $ 594,240 $73,936 8 $ 1,485,600 $76,591 19 $ 891,360 $79,343 11

Victorville (Site 3) Facility $ 10,984,920 $73,936 149 $ 27,462,300 $76,591 359 $ 16,477,380 $79,343 208

Control/Signal Work $ 34,554,000 $73,936 467 $ 86,385,000 $76,591 1,128 $ 51,831,000 $79,343 653

Train Sets/Equipment

Stations

Las Vegas Central Station $73,936

Victorville Station (Site 3) $ 29,084,160 $73,936 393 $ 72,710,400 $76,591 949 $ 43,626,240 $79,343 550

Project Management

Project Management Oversight $ 6,400,000 $60,773 105 $ 16,000,000 $62,711 255 $ 9,600,000 $64,825 148

Professional Services $ 1,600,000 $60,773 26 $ 4,000,000 $62,711 64 $ 2,400,000 $64,825 37

Contingency

Environmental Mitigation $ 5,090,520 $60,773 84 $ 12,726,300 $62,711 203 $ 7,635,780 $64,825 118

ROW Acquisition $ 2,115,200 $47,098 45 $ 5,288,000 $48,339 109 $ 3,172,800 $49,685 64

Total $ 432,063,600 5,898 $ 1,080,159,000 14,238 $ 648,095,400 8,248

3 year increase in Primary Workers 28,384

3 year increase to wages to Primary Workers $ 2,160,318,000

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Desert Xpress: 

Economic Impact Analysis

Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 12

Table 2b: San Bernadino County 3 Year Effect to Secondary Employment and Output

Description

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 2011

2011 Average 

Annual Wage

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs 

in 2011

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 2012

2012 

Average 

Annual 

Wage

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs 

in 2012

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 2013

2013 

Average 

Annual 

Wage

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs in 

2013

Civil/Track Work 3,847 $55,471 $ 213,412,786 9,285 $57,043 $ 529,631,129 5,378 $58,751 $ 315,946,666

Electrical Work

 Primary Distribution 113 $55,471 $ 6,275,216 273 $57,043 $ 15,573,339 158 $58,751 $ 9,290,135

 Traction Power and 386 $55,471 $ 21,412,799 932 $57,043 $ 53,140,606 540 $58,751 $ 31,700,548

 Overhead Contact Systems

Maintenance Facilities

Las Vegas (Wigwam) Facility

Baker MOW Facility 8 $55,471 $ 419,364 18 $57,043 $ 1,040,745 11 $58,751 $ 620,847

Victorville (Site 3) Facility 140 $55,471 $ 7,752,221 337 $57,043 $ 19,238,854 195 $58,751 $ 11,476,764

Control/Signal Work 440 $55,471 $ 24,385,269 1,061 $57,043 $ 60,517,451 614 $58,751 $ 36,101,138

Train Sets/Equipment

Stations

Las Vegas Central Station

Victorville Station (Site 3) 370 $55,471 $ 20,525,122 893 $57,043 $ 50,937,640 517 $58,751 $ 30,386,389

Project Management

Project Management Oversight 99 $55,471 $ 5,494,855 240 $57,043 $ 13,689,858 139 $58,751 $ 8,184,084

Professional Services 25 $55,471 $ 1,373,714 60 $57,043 $ 3,422,464 35 $58,751 $ 2,046,021

Contingency

Environmental Mitigation 79 $55,471 $ 4,370,573 191 $57,043 $ 10,888,827 111 $58,751 $ 6,509,569

ROW Acquisition 42 $55,471 $ 2,343,318 103 $57,043 $ 5,869,676 60 $58,751 $ 3,529,027

Total 5,548 $ 307,765,236 13,393 $ 763,950,588 7,758 $ 455,791,189

3 year increase in Secondary Workers 26,699

3 year increase to wages to Secondary Workers $ 1,527,507,013

3 year increase to all workers 55,083

3 year increase to wages to all workers $ 3,687,825,013

F-F-13
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 13

Table 3a: 2011 Aggregate Effect to Primary Employment and Output

Description

Amount to 

Primary Labor 

in 2011 (NV)

2011 

Average 

Annual 

Wage 

(NV)

2011 Increase 

in Primary 

Workers (NV)

Amount to 

Primary Labor in 

2011 (CA)

2011 

Average 

Annual 

Wage 

(CA)

2011 Increase in 

Primary Workers 

(CA)

Amount to 

Primary Labor in 

2011

2011 Increase in 

Primary Workers

Civil/Track Work $ 162,834,240 $76,146 2,138 $ 302,406,560 $73,936 4,090 $ 465,240,800 6,229

Electrical Work

 Primary Distribution $ 4,788,000 $76,146 63 $ 8,892,000 $73,936 120 $ 13,680,000 183

 Traction Power and $ 16,338,000 $76,146 215 $ 30,342,000 $73,936 410 $ 46,680,000 625

 Overhead Contact Systems

Maintenance Facilities

Las Vegas (Wigwam) Facility $ 2,846,160 $76,146 37 $ 2,846,160 37

Baker MOW Facility $ 594,240 $73,936 8 $ 594,240 8

Victorville (Site 3) Facility $ 10,984,920 $73,936 149 $ 10,984,920 149

Control/Signal Work $ 18,606,000 $76,146 244 $ 34,554,000 $73,936 467 $ 53,160,000 712

Train Sets/Equipment

Stations

Las Vegas Central Station $ 25,527,120 $76,146 335 $73,936 $ 25,527,120 335

Victorville Station (Site 3) $ 29,084,160 $73,936 393 $ 29,084,160 393

Project Management

Project Management Oversight $ 25,600,000 $60,773 421 $ 6,400,000 $60,773 105 $ 32,000,000 527

Professional Services $ 6,400,000 $60,773 105 $ 1,600,000 $60,773 26 $ 8,000,000 132

Contingency

Environmental Mitigation $ 2,545,200 $60,773 42 $ 5,090,520 $60,773 84 $ 7,635,720 126

ROW Acquisition $ 528,800 $47,098 11 $ 2,115,200 $47,098 45 $ 2,644,000 56

Total $ 266,013,520 3,613 $ 432,063,600 5,898 $ 698,077,120 9,511

F-F-14
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 14

Table 3b: 2012 Aggregate Effect to Primary Employment and Output

Description

Amount to 

Primary Labor 

in 2012 (NV)

2012 

Average 

Annual 

Wage 

(NV)

2012 Increase 

in Primary 

Workers (NV)

Amount to 

Primary Labor in 

2012 (CA)

2012 

Average 

Annual 

Wage 

(CA)

2012 Increase in 

Primary Workers 

(CA)

Amount to 

Primary Labor in 

2012

2012 Increase in 

Primary Workers

Civil/Track Work $ 407,085,600 $78,457 5,189 $ 756,016,400 $76,591 9,871 $ 1,163,102,000 15,059

Electrical Work

 Primary Distribution $ 11,970,000 $78,457 153 $ 22,230,000 $76,591 290 $ 34,200,000 443

 Traction Power and $ 40,845,000 $78,457 521 $ 75,855,000 $76,591 990 $ 116,700,000 1,511

 Overhead Contact Systems

Maintenance Facilities

Las Vegas (Wigwam) Facility $ 7,115,400 $78,457 91 $ 7,115,400 91

Baker MOW Facility $ 1,485,600 $76,591 19 $ 1,485,600 19

Victorville (Site 3) Facility $ 27,462,300 $76,591 359 $ 27,462,300 359

Control/Signal Work $ 46,515,000 $78,457 593 $ 86,385,000 $76,591 1,128 $ 132,900,000 1,721

Train Sets/Equipment

Stations

Las Vegas Central Station $ 63,817,800 $78,457 813 $ 63,817,800 813

Victorville Station (Site 3) $ 72,710,400 $76,591 949 $ 72,710,400 949

Project Management

Project Management Oversight $ 64,000,000 $62,711 1,021 $ 16,000,000 $62,711 255 $ 80,000,000 1,276

Professional Services $ 16,000,000 $62,711 255 $ 4,000,000 $62,711 64 $ 20,000,000 319

Contingency

Environmental Mitigation $ 6,363,000 $62,711 101 $ 12,726,300 $62,711 203 $ 19,089,300 304

ROW Acquisition $ 1,322,000 $48,339 27 $ 5,288,000 $48,339 109 $ 6,610,000 137

Total $ 665,033,800 8,763 $ 1,080,159,000 14,238 $ 1,745,192,800 23,001

F-F-15
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 15

Table 3c: 2013 Aggregate Effect to Primary Employment and Output

Description

Amount to 

Primary Labor 

in 2013 (NV)

2013 

Average 

Annual 

Wage 

(NV)

2013 Increase 

in Primary 

Workers (NV)

Amount to 

Primary Labor in 

2013 (CA)

2013 

Average 

Annual 

Wage 

(CA)

2013 Increase in 

Primary Workers 

(CA)

Amount to 

Primary Labor in 

2013

2013 Increase in 

Primary Workers

Civil/Track Work $ 244,251,360 $80,974 3,016 $ 453,609,840 $79,343 5,717 $ 697,861,200 8,733

Electrical Work

 Primary Distribution $ 7,182,000 $80,974 89 $ 13,338,000 $79,343 168 $ 20,520,000 257

 Traction Power and $ 24,507,000 $80,974 303 $ 45,513,000 $79,343 574 $ 70,020,000 876

 Overhead Contact Systems

Maintenance Facilities

Las Vegas (Wigwam) Facility $ 4,269,240 $80,974 53 $ 4,269,240 53

Baker MOW Facility $ 891,360 $79,343 11 $ 891,360 11

Victorville (Site 3) Facility $ 16,477,380 $79,343 208 $ 16,477,380 208

Control/Signal Work $ 27,909,000 $80,974 345 $ 51,831,000 $79,343 653 $ 79,740,000 998

Train Sets/Equipment

Stations

Las Vegas Central Station $ 38,290,680 $80,974 473 $ 38,290,680 473

Victorville Station (Site 3) $ 43,626,240 $79,343 550 $ 43,626,240 550

Project Management

Project Management Oversight $ 38,400,000 $64,825 592 $ 9,600,000 $64,825 148 $ 48,000,000 740

Professional Services $ 9,600,000 $64,825 148 $ 2,400,000 $64,825 37 $ 12,000,000 185

Contingency

Environmental Mitigation $ 3,817,800 $64,825 59 $ 7,635,780 $64,825 118 $ 11,453,580 177

ROW Acquisition $ 793,200 $49,685 16 $ 3,172,800 $49,685 64 $ 3,966,000 80

Total $ 399,020,280 5,093 $ 648,095,400 8,248 $ 1,047,115,680 13,341

3 year increase in Primary Workers 45,853

3 year increase to wages to Primary Workers $ 3,490,385,600

F-F-16
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 16

Table 3d: 2011 Aggregate Effect to Secondary Employment and Output

Description

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 

2011 (NV)

2011 

Average 

Annual 

Wage 

(NV)

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs 

in 2011 (NV)

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 2011 

(CA)

2011 

Average 

Annual 

Wage 

(CA)

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs 

in 2011 (CA)

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 2011

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs in 

2011

Civil/Track Work 2,011 $50,295 $ 101,168,635 3,847 $55,471 $ 213,412,786 5,859 $ 314,581,421

Electrical Work

 Primary Distribution 59 $50,295 $ 2,974,776 113 $55,471 $ 6,275,216 172 $ 9,249,992

 Traction Power and 202 $50,295 $ 10,150,771 386 $55,471 $ 21,412,799 588 $ 31,563,570

 Overhead Contact Systems

Maintenance Facilities

Las Vegas (Wigwam) Facility 35 $50,295 $ 1,768,314 35 $ 1,768,314

Baker MOW Facility 8 $55,471 $ 419,364 8 $ 419,364

Victorville (Site 3) Facility 140 $55,471 $ 7,752,221 140 $ 7,752,221

Control/Signal Work 230 $50,295 $ 11,559,876 440 $55,471 $ 24,385,269 669 $ 35,945,145

Train Sets/Equipment

Stations

Las Vegas Central Station 315 $50,295 $ 15,859,956 315 $ 15,859,956

Victorville Station (Site 3) 370 $55,471 $ 20,525,122 370 $ 20,525,122

Project Management

Project Management Oversight 396 $50,295 $ 19,928,627 99 $55,471 $ 5,494,855 495 $ 25,423,482

Professional Services 99 $50,295 $ 4,982,157 25 $55,471 $ 1,373,714 124 $ 6,355,871

Contingency

Environmental Mitigation 39 $50,295 $ 1,981,342 79 $55,471 $ 4,370,573 118 $ 6,351,915

ROW Acquisition 11 $50,295 $ 531,169 42 $55,471 $ 2,343,318 53 $ 2,874,487

Total 3,398 $ 170,905,624 5,548 $ 307,765,236 8,946 $ 478,670,860

F-F-17
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 17

Table 3e: 2012 Aggregate Effect to Secondary Employment and Output

Description

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 

2012 (NV)

2012 

Average 

Annual 

Wage 

(NV)

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs 

in 2012 (NV)

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 2012 

(CA)

2012 

Average 

Annual 

Wage 

(CA)

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs 

in 2012 (CA)

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 2012

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs in 

2012

Civil/Track Work 4,881 $51,720 $ 252,427,410 9,285 $57,043 $ 529,631,129 14,165 $ 782,058,539

Electrical Work

 Primary Distribution 144 $51,720 $ 7,422,410 273 $57,043 $ 15,573,339 417 $ 22,995,749

 Traction Power and 490 $51,720 $ 25,327,345 932 $57,043 $ 53,140,606 1,421 $ 78,467,951

 Overhead Contact Systems

Maintenance Facilities

Las Vegas (Wigwam) Facility 85 $51,720 $ 4,412,148 85 $ 4,412,148

Baker MOW Facility 18 $57,043 $ 1,040,745 18 $ 1,040,745

Victorville (Site 3) Facility 337 $57,043 $ 19,238,854 337 $ 19,238,854

Control/Signal Work 558 $51,720 $ 28,843,224 1,061 $57,043 $ 60,517,451 1,619 $ 89,360,674

Train Sets/Equipment

Stations

Las Vegas Central Station 765 $51,720 $ 39,572,419 765 $ 39,572,419

Victorville Station (Site 3) 893 $57,043 $ 50,937,640 893 $ 50,937,640

Project Management

Project Management Oversight 960 $51,720 $ 49,650,098 240 $57,043 $ 13,689,858 1,200 $ 63,339,955

Professional Services 240 $51,720 $ 12,412,524 60 $57,043 $ 3,422,464 300 $ 15,834,989

Contingency

Environmental Mitigation 95 $51,720 $ 4,936,306 191 $57,043 $ 10,888,827 286 $ 15,825,133

ROW Acquisition 26 $51,720 $ 1,330,501 103 $57,043 $ 5,869,676 129 $ 7,200,177

Total 8,243 $ 426,334,386 13,393 $ 763,950,588 21,636 $ 1,190,284,974

F-F-18
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 18

Table 3f: 2013 Aggregate Effect to Secondary Employment and Output

Description

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 

2013 (NV)

2013 

Average 

Annual 

Wage 

(NV)

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs 

in 2013 (NV)

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 2013 

(CA)

2013 

Average 

Annual 

Wage 

(CA)

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs 

in 2013 (CA)

Secondary Jobs 

Created in 2013

Wages to 

Secondary Jobs in 

2013

Civil/Track Work 2,837 $53,270 $ 151,144,154 5,378 $58,751 $ 315,946,666 8,215 $ 467,090,820

Electrical Work 0

 Primary Distribution 83 $53,270 $ 4,444,263 158 $58,751 $ 9,290,135 242 $ 13,734,398

 Traction Power and 285 $53,270 $ 15,165,073 540 $58,751 $ 31,700,548 824 $ 46,865,622

 Overhead Contact Systems

Maintenance Facilities

Las Vegas (Wigwam) Facility 50 $53,270 $ 2,641,830 50 $ 2,641,830

Baker MOW Facility 11 $58,751 $ 620,847 11 $ 620,847

Victorville (Site 3) Facility 195 $58,751 $ 11,476,764 195 $ 11,476,764

Control/Signal Work 324 $53,270 $ 17,270,251 614 $58,751 $ 36,101,138 939 $ 53,371,389

Train Sets/Equipment

Stations

Las Vegas Central Station 445 $53,270 $ 23,694,494 445 $ 23,694,494

Victorville Station (Site 3) 517 $58,751 $ 30,386,389

Project Management 0

Project Management Oversight 557 $53,270 $ 29,681,869 139 $58,751 $ 8,184,084 697 $ 37,865,953

Professional Services 139 $53,270 $ 7,420,467 35 $58,751 $ 2,046,021 174 $ 9,466,488

Contingency 0

Environmental Mitigation 55 $53,270 $ 2,951,027 111 $58,751 $ 6,509,569 166 $ 9,460,596

ROW Acquisition 15 $53,270 $ 799,938 60 $58,751 $ 3,529,027 75 $ 4,328,965

Total 4,791 $ 255,213,368 7,758 $ 455,791,189 12,549 $ 711,004,557

3 year increase in Secondary Workers 43,131

3 year increase to wages to Secondary Workers $ 2,379,960,390

3 year increase to all workers 88,984

3 year increase to wages to all workers $ 5,870,345,990

F-F-19
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 19

Construction Industry

 reg lwage lcpi lue if const==1, cluster(time)

Linear regression Number of obs = 49770

 F( 2, 71) = 153.29

 Prob > F = 0

 R-squared = 0.0151

Root MSE = 0.43095

(Std. Err. adjusted for 72 clusters in time)

Robust

lwage Coef. Std. Err. t P>t

lcpi 1.054537 0.06026 17.5 0 0.934382 1.174691

lue 0.14145 0.025996 5.44 0 0.089617 0.1932842

cons -3.104296 0.333598 -9.31 0 -3.76947 -2.439121

su wklypay if construction==1 & year==2009

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

 wklypay 9335 851.3965 520.1919 0 2884.61

Union Workers in the Construction Industry

 reg lwage lcpi lue if const==1 & union==1, cluster(time)

Linear regression Number of obs = 9309

F( 2, 71) = 68.62

Prob > F = 0

 R-squared = 0.0164

Root MSE = 0.41235

 (Std. Err. adjusted for 72 clusters in time)

 Robust

lwage Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t|

lcpi 1.009939 0.087291 11.57 0 0.835885 1.183993

lue 0.095278 0.047689 2 0.05 0.000188 0.1903681

cons -2.464598 0.493003 -5 0 -3.447618 -1.481578

su wklypay if construction==1 & union==1 & year==2009

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

wklypay 1570 1073.931 497.8953 0 2884.61

[95% Conf. Interval]

[95% Conf. Interval]

F-F-20
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 20

Union Workers in the Construction Industry with Affect Adjustment for Living in Nevada

. reg lwage lcpi lue nevada if construction==1 & union==1, cluster(time)

Linear regression Number of obs = 9309

F( 3, 71) = 50.55

Prob > F = 0

R-squared = 0.0168

Root MSE = 0.41229

(Std. Err. adjusted for 72 clusters in time)

Robust

lwage Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t|

lcpi 1.003667 0.087247 11.5 0 0.829702 1.177632

lue 0.094499 0.047568 1.99 0.051 -0.00035 0.1893474

nevada 0.045075 0.019467 2.32 0.023 0.00626 0.0838904

_cons -2.431792 0.492342 -4.94 0 -3.413494 -1.45009

Real Estate Industry

reg lwage lcpi lue if realestind==1, cluster(time)

Linear regression Number of obs = 6162

F( 2, 71) = 39.15

Prob > F = 0

R-squared = 0.0128

Root MSE = 0.40195

(Std. Err. adjusted for 72 clusters in time)

 Robust

lwage Coef. Std. Err. t P>t 

lcpi 0.871159 0.098673 8.83 0 0.674411 1.067907

lue 0.046368 0.042346 1.09 0.277 -0.038067 0.1308035

cons -2.201753 0.539782 -4.08 0 -3.278049 -1.125458

su wklypay if realestind==1 & year==2009

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

wklypay 2205 802.5956 620.6943 0 2884.61

[95% Conf. Interval]

[95% Conf. Interval]

F-F-21
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 21

Secondary Workers

 reg lwage lcpi lue if secondary==1, cluster(time)

Linear regression Number of obs = 304074

 F( 2, 71) = 473.87

Prob > F = 0

R-squared = 0.011

Root MSE = 0.47427

(Std. Err. adjusted for 72 clusters in time)

Robust

lwage Coef. Std. Err. t P>t

lcpi 0.937092 0.041318 22.68 0 0.854706 1.019478

lue 0.03285 0.020951 1.57 0.121 -0.008925 0.0746237

cons -2.525984 0.243892 -10.36 0 -3.01229 -2.039678

su wklypay if secondary==1 & year==2009

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

wklypay 88835 795.3791 611.8022 0 2884.61

Secondary Workers with Affect of Living in California

. reg lwage lcpi lue california if secondary==1, cluster(time)

Linear regression Number of obs = 304074

F( 3, 71) = 533.79

Prob > F = 0

R-squared = 0.0141

Root MSE = 0.47354

(Std. Err. adjusted for 72 clusters in time)

Robust

lwage Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t|

lcpi 0.929091 0.040981 22.67 0 0.847377 1.010805

lue 0.034532 0.020801 1.66 0.101 -0.006944 0.0760081

california 0.102907 0.004069 25.29 0 0.094795 0.1110191

_cons -2.493759 0.241783 -10.31 0 -2.975859 -2.011658

[95% Conf. Interval]

[95% Conf. Interval]

F-F-22
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 22

 xtreg secondary basic, re

Random-effects GLS regression Number of obs = 20591

Group variable: place Number of groups = 330

R-sq: within = 0.3003 Obs per group: min = 4

between = 0.8908 avg = 62.4

overall = 0.8804 max = 68

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian Wald chi2(1) = 10035.46

corr(u_i, X) = 0 (assumed) Prob > chi2 = 0

secondary Coef. Std. Err. z P>z [95% Conf. Interval]

basic 0.940635 0.00939 100.18 0 0.922231 0.9590383

_cons 82.14173 4.679492 17.55 0 72.9701 91.31337

sigma_u 82.10699

sigma_e 17.95275

rho 0.954373 (fraction of variance due to u_i)

 reg lsecondary vlconst sblconst lconst

Source SS df MS Number of obs = 20591

F( 3, 20587) = 29605.79

Model 20796.34 3 6932.113 Prob > F = 0

Residual 4820.389 20587 0.234147 R-squared = 0.8118

Adj R-squared = 0.8118

Total 25616.73 20590 1.244134 Root MSE = 0.48389

lsecondary Coef. Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]

vlconst 0.025351 0.013339 1.9 0.057 -0.000795 0.0514973

sblconst -0.024474 0.014557 -1.68 0.093 -0.053007 0.0040585

lconst 0.83608 0.002834 295.05 0 0.830526 0.8416344

_cons 2.604671 0.00706 368.94 0 2.590833 2.618509

F-F-23
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 23

Fringe benefit rate 23.78%

inflation rate April 2009 to April 2010 2.24%

inflation rate 2010 to 2011 2.71%

inflation rate 2011 to 2012 3.02%

inflation rate 2012 to 2013 3.20%

2009 Average Construction Wage $44,273 2009 Average Union Construction Wage $55,844

construction wage elasticity to inflation 1.05 construction wage elasticity to inflation 1.01

Annual Construction wage & fringes Annual Union Construction wage & fringes 

2010 $59,084 2010 $71,375

2011 $60,773 2011 $73,936

2012 $62,711 2012 $76,591

2013 $64,825 2013 $79,343

2009 Average Union Construction Wage $58,362 2009 Average Real Estate Wage $41,735

Union construction wage elasticity to inflation 1.00 real estate wage elasticity to inflation 0.87

Wage differential for Nevada Workers 4.51% Annual Real Estate wage & fringes

NV Annual Union Construction wage & fringes Annual Real Estate Wage & Fringes

2010 $74,129 2010 $46,012

2011 $76,146 2011 $47,098

2012 $78,457 2012 $48,339

2013 $80,974 2013 $49,685

2009 Average Secondary Wage $45,616

2009 Average Secondary Wage $41,360 secondary wage elasticity to inflation 0.94

secondary wage elasticity to inflation 0.94 Wage differential for California workers 10.29%

Annual Secondary Wage & Fringes Annual Secondary Wage & Fringes for California workers

2010 $49,049 2010 $54,097

2011 $50,295 2011 $55,471

2012 $51,720 2012 $57,043

2013 $53,270 2013 $58,751

F-F-24
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 24

Personal Personal Tax Wages & Fringe FB

Year Income Taxes Rate Sararies Benefits Rate

billions billions percent billions billions percent

1929 $84.9 $1.7 2.00% $50.5 $0.7 1.39%

1930 $76.1 $1.6 2.10% $46.2 $0.7 1.52%

1931 $65.2 $1.0 1.53% $39.2 $0.6 1.53%

1932 $49.9 $0.7 1.40% $30.5 $0.6 1.97%

1933 $46.8 $0.8 1.71% $29.0 $0.5 1.72%

1934 $53.7 $0.9 1.68% $33.7 $0.6 1.78%

1935 $60.3 $1.1 1.82% $36.7 $0.7 1.91%

1936 $68.6 $1.3 1.90% $42.0 $1.0 2.38%

1937 $74.1 $1.9 2.56% $46.1 $1.8 3.90%

1938 $68.4 $1.9 2.78% $43.0 $2.0 4.65%

1939 $72.9 $1.5 2.06% $46.0 $2.2 4.78%

1940 $78.4 $1.7 2.17% $49.9 $2.3 4.61%

1941 $96.0 $2.3 2.40% $62.1 $2.7 4.35%

1942 $123.4 $4.9 3.97% $82.1 $3.2 3.90%

1943 $152.1 $16.7 10.98% $105.6 $3.8 3.60%

1944 $166.0 $17.7 10.66% $116.9 $4.5 3.85%

1945 $171.6 $19.4 11.31% $117.5 $5.8 4.94%

1946 $178.6 $17.2 9.63% $112.0 $7.6 6.79%

1947 $190.9 $19.8 10.37% $123.1 $7.0 5.69%

1948 $209.7 $19.2 9.16% $135.5 $6.4 4.72%

1949 $207.0 $16.7 8.07% $134.8 $7.1 5.27%

1950 $228.9 $18.9 8.26% $147.2 $8.0 5.43%

1951 $257.9 $27.1 10.51% $171.5 $9.8 5.71%

1952 $275.2 $32.0 11.63% $185.7 $10.5 5.65%

1953 $291.7 $33.2 11.38% $199.1 $11.2 5.63%

1954 $294.3 $30.2 10.26% $197.3 $11.9 6.03%

1955 $316.0 $32.9 10.41% $212.2 $13.5 6.36%

1956 $339.5 $36.6 10.78% $229.0 $15.5 6.77%

1957 $358.5 $38.9 10.85% $240.0 $17.6 7.33%

1958 $368.9 $38.5 10.44% $241.3 $18.2 7.54%

1959 $392.3 $42.3 10.78% $259.8 $21.1 8.12%

1960 $411.3 $46.1 11.21% $272.9 $23.6 8.65%

1961 $428.8 $47.3 11.03% $280.5 $24.8 8.84%

1962 $456.4 $51.6 11.31% $299.4 $27.8 9.29%

1963 $479.5 $54.6 11.39% $314.9 $30.4 9.65%

1964 $514.3 $52.1 10.13% $337.8 $32.9 9.74%

1965 $555.5 $57.7 10.39% $363.8 $35.7 9.81%

1966 $603.8 $66.4 11.00% $400.3 $42.3 10.57%

1967 $648.1 $73.0 11.26% $429.0 $46.1 10.75%

1968 $711.7 $87.0 12.22% $472.0 $52.3 11.08%

1969 $778.3 $104.5 13.43% $518.3 $59.3 11.44%

1970 $838.6 $103.1 12.29% $551.6 $65.7 11.91%

Tax and Fringe Benefit Rates, 1929- 2009

expressed in Billions of current dollars

F-F-25
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 25

Tax and Fringe Benefit Rates, 1929- 2009

expressed in Billions of current dollars

1971 $903.1 $101.7 11.26% $584.0 $74.4 12.74%

1972 $992.6 $123.6 12.45% $638.8 $86.4 13.53%

1973 $1,110.5 $132.4 11.92% $708.8 $102.5 14.46%

1974 $1,222.7 $151.0 12.35% $772.8 $118.0 15.27%

1975 $1,334.9 $147.6 11.06% $814.7 $134.3 16.48%

1976 $1,474.7 $172.3 11.68% $899.6 $159.6 17.74%

1977 $1,632.5 $197.5 12.10% $994.1 $186.4 18.75%

1978 $1,836.7 $229.4 12.49% $1,120.3 $214.9 19.18%

1979 $2,059.5 $268.7 13.05% $1,253.5 $245.0 19.55%

1980 $2,301.5 $298.9 12.99% $1,373.5 $274.2 19.96%

1981 $2,582.3 $345.2 13.37% $1,511.3 $308.3 20.40%

1982 $2,766.8 $354.1 12.80% $1,587.5 $332.1 20.92%

1983 $2,952.2 $352.3 11.93% $1,678.0 $358.0 21.33%

1984 $3,268.9 $377.4 11.55% $1,844.7 $400.5 21.71%

1985 $3,496.7 $417.3 11.93% $1,982.8 $429.2 21.65%

1986 $3,696.0 $437.2 11.83% $2,102.3 $455.3 21.66%

1987 $3,924.4 $489.1 12.46% $2,256.3 $479.4 21.25%

1988 $4,231.2 $504.9 11.93% $2,439.8 $514.4 21.08%

1989 $4,557.5 $566.1 12.42% $2,583.1 $548.3 21.23%

1990 $4,846.7 $592.7 12.23% $2,741.1 $585.1 21.35%

1991 $5,031.5 $586.6 11.66% $2,814.5 $623.9 22.17%

1992 $5,347.3 $610.5 11.42% $2,973.5 $673.6 22.65%

1993 $5,568.1 $646.5 11.61% $3,076.6 $714.1 23.21%

1994 $5,874.8 $690.5 11.75% $3,230.8 $750.1 23.22%

1995 $6,200.9 $743.9 12.00% $3,418.0 $760.8 22.26%

1996 $6,591.6 $832.0 12.62% $3,616.3 $771.4 21.33%

1997 $7,000.7 $926.2 13.23% $3,876.6 $792.0 20.43%

1998 $7,525.4 $1,026.4 13.64% $4,181.6 $842.3 20.14%

1999 $7,910.8 $1,107.5 14.00% $4,460.0 $888.8 19.93%

2000 $8,559.4 $1,232.3 14.40% $4,827.7 $961.2 19.91%

2001 $8,883.3 $1,234.8 13.90% $4,952.2 $1,027.1 20.74%

2002 $9,060.1 $1,050.4 11.59% $4,997.3 $1,113.5 22.28%

2003 $9,378.1 $1,000.3 10.67% $5,139.6 $1,228.0 23.89%

2004 $9,937.2 $1,047.8 10.54% $5,425.7 $1,282.7 23.64%

2005 $10,485.9 $1,208.6 11.53% $5,701.0 $1,359.1 23.84%

2006 $11,268.1 $1,352.4 12.00% $6,068.9 $1,406.9 23.18%

2007 $11,894.1 $1,490.9 12.53% $6,408.9 $1,453.8 22.68%

2008 $12,238.8 $1,432.4 11.70% $6,545.9 $1,496.6 22.86%

2009 $12,072.1 $1,107.6 9.17% $6,330.6 $1,505.7 23.78%

Source: http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb

F-F-26
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 26

YearCPI Inflation UE

1913 9.8

1914 9.9 1.02%

1915 10 1.01%

1916 10.4 4.00%

1917 12 15.38%

1918 14.1 17.50%

1919 16.2 14.89%

1920 19.5 20.37%

1921 18.4 -5.64%

1922 16.9 -8.15%

1923 16.8 -0.59%

1924 17.2 2.38%

1925 17.2 0.00%

1926 17.9 4.07%

1927 17.4 -2.79%

1928 17.1 -1.72%

1929 17.1 0.00%

1930 17 -0.58%

1931 15.7 -7.65%

1932 14.1 -10.19%

1933 12.7 -9.93%

1934 13.3 4.72%

1935 13.7 3.01%

1936 13.8 0.73%

1937 14.1 2.17%

1938 14.1 0.00%

1939 13.9 -1.42%

1940 14 0.72%

1941 14.1 0.71%

1942 15.8 12.06%

1943 16.9 6.96%

1944 17.4 2.96%

1945 17.8 2.30%

1946 18.1 1.69%

1947 21.5 18.78%

1948 23.5 9.30% 3.8

1949 23.8 1.28% 4.7

1950 23.5 -1.26% 6.4

1951 25.7 9.36% 3.4

1952 26.3 2.33% 3.1

1953 26.5 0.76% 2.6

1954 26.9 1.51% 5.2

1955 26.7 -0.74% 4.7

1956 26.8 0.37% 3.9

1957 27.7 3.36% 3.9

1958 28.6 3.25% 6.4

1959 28.9 1.05% 5.9

1960 29.4 1.73% 4.8

1961 29.8 1.36% 6.9

F-F-27
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 27

YearCPI Inflation UE

1962 30.1 1.01% 5.5

1963 30.4 1.00% 5.9

1964 30.9 1.64% 5.4

1965 31.2 0.97% 5.1

1966 32 2.56% 3.8

1967 32.9 2.81% 3.8

1968 34.2 3.95% 3.8

1969 35.8 4.68% 3.4

1970 38 6.15% 4.2

1971 39.9 5.00% 5.9

1972 41.3 3.51% 5.7

1973 42.9 3.87%5

1974 47.2 10.02% 5.2

1975 52.5 11.23% 8.1

1976 55.8 6.29% 7.7

1977 59.1 5.91% 7.6

1978 62.9 6.43% 6.3

1979 69.1 9.86% 5.9

1980 78.9 14.18% 6.3

1981 87.9 11.41% 7.4

1982 94.6 7.62% 8.9

1983 97.9 3.49% 10.4

1984 102.4 4.60% 7.8

1985 106 3.52% 7.2

1986 109.3 3.11% 7.2

1987 111.6 2.10% 6.6

1988 116 3.94% 5.7

1989 121.6 4.83% 5.2

1990 128 5.26% 5.3

1991 134.8 5.31% 6.6

1992 138.6 2.82% 7.4

1993 143.1 3.25% 7.1

1994 146.7 2.52% 6.6

1995 150.9 2.86% 5.4

1996 154.9 2.65% 5.5

1997 159.6 3.03% 5.2

1998 161.9 1.44% 4.6

1999 164.5 1.61% 4.4

2000 169.8 3.22% 4.1

2001 175.8 3.53% 4.2

2002 177.8 1.14% 5.7

2003 183.1 2.98% 5.9

2004 186.2 1.69% 5.6

2005 191.8 3.01% 5.4

2006 198.7 3.60% 4.8

2007 203.5 2.42% 4.5

2008 211.7 4.03% 4.8

2009 212.2 0.24% 8.2

2010 216.7 2.14% 9.7

F-F-28
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 28

YearCPI Inflation UE

2011 222.6 2.71% 8.75

2012 229.3 3.02% 7.66

2013 236.7 3.20% 6.90

2014 244.5 3.29% 6.43

2015 252.6 3.34% 6.17

2016 261.2 3.37% 6.02

2017 270.0 3.39% 5.95

2018 279.2 3.40% 5.91

2019 288.7 3.40% 5.88

2020 298.5 3.41% 5.87

2021 308.7 3.41% 5.87

2022 319.2 3.41% 5.86

2023 330.1 3.41% 5.86

2024 341.3 3.41% 5.86

2025 353.0 3.41% 5.86

2026 365.0 3.41% 5.86

2027 377.5 3.41% 5.86

2028 390.3 3.41% 5.86

2029 403.6 3.41% 5.86

2030 417.4 3.41% 5.86

2031 431.6 3.41% 5.86

2032 446.3 3.41% 5.86

2033 461.5 3.41% 5.86

2034 477.3 3.41% 5.86

2035 493.5 3.41% 5.86

2036 510.4 3.41% 5.86

2037 527.8 3.41% 5.86

2038 545.7 3.41% 5.86

2039 564.3 3.41% 5.86

2040 583.6 3.41% 5.86

2041 603.5 3.41% 5.86

2042 624.0 3.41% 5.86

2043 645.3 3.41% 5.86

2044 667.3 3.41% 5.86

2045 690.1 3.41% 5.86

2046 713.6 3.41% 5.86

2047 737.9 3.41% 5.86

2048 763.1 3.41% 5.86

2049 789.1 3.41% 5.86

2050 816.0 3.41% 5.86

2051 843.8 3.41% 5.86

2052 872.5 3.41% 5.86

2053 902.3 3.41% 5.86

2054 933.0 3.41% 5.86

2055 964.8 3.41% 5.86

2056 997.7 3.41% 5.86

2057 1031.7 3.41% 5.86

2058 1066.9 3.41% 5.86

2059 1103.3 3.41% 5.86

2060 1140.9 3.41% 5.86

F-F-29
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 29

dfuller inf, regress lags(0)

Dickey-Fuller test for unit root Number of obs = 96

 ---------- Interpolated Dickey-Fuller ---------

 Test 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical

 Statistic Value Value Value

Z(t) -5.219 -3.516 -2.893 -2.582

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.0000

D.inf Coef. Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]

inf

L1. -0.44859 0.085947 -5.22 0 -0.6192368 -0.2779371

_cons 0.015291 0.0053164 2.88 0.005 0.0047351 0.0258466

 reg inf l.inf

Source SS df MS Number of obs = 96

F( 1, 94) = 41.16

Model 0.078286 1 0.07828611 Prob > F = 0

Residual 0.178781 94 0.001901921 R-squared = 0.3045

Adj R-squared = 0.2971

Total 0.257067 95 0.002705965 Root MSE = 0.04361

inf Coef. Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]

inf

L1. 0.551413 0.085947 6.42 0 0.3807632 0.7220629

_cons 0.015291 0.0053164 2.88 0.005 0.0047351 0.0258466

F-F-30
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 30

dfuller ue, regress lags(1)

Dickey-Fuller test for unit root Number of obs = 61

 ---------- Interpolated Dickey-Fuller ---------

 Test 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical

 Statistic Value Value Value

Z(t) -2.981 -3.565 -2.921 -2.596

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.0367

D.ue Coef. Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]

ue

L1. -0.31767 0.1065785 -2.98 0.004 -0.5310099 -0.1043298

LD. 0.17683 0.1351376 1.31 0.196 -0.0936772 0.4473374

_cons 1.861704 0.6148992 3.03 0.004 0.6308491 3.092558

 reg ue l.ue l.d.ue

Source SS df MS Number of obs = 61

F( 2, 58) = 29.81

Model 76.93981 2 38.4699049 Prob > F = 0

Residual 74.8533 58 1.29057412 R-squared = 0.5069

Adj R-squared = 0.4899

Total 151.7931 60 2.52988515 Root MSE = 1.136

ue Coef. Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]

ue

L1. 0.68233 0.1065785 6.4 0 0.4689901 0.8956702

LD. 0.17683 0.1351376 1.31 0.196 -0.0936772 0.4473374

_cons 1.861704 0.6148992 3.03 0.004 0.6308491 3.092558

F-F-31
Desert Xpress: 

Employment Impact Analysis

Prepared by 

Thomas Carroll Associates

10/6/2010 31

dfuller tx, regress lags(0)

Dickey-Fuller test for unit root Number of obs = 80

---------- Interpolated Dickey-Fuller ---------

Test 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical

Statistic Value Value Value

Z(t) -2.129 -3.538 -2.906 -2.588

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.2328

D.tx Coef. Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]

tx

L1. -0.06603 0.0310076 -2.13 0.036 -0.1277611 -0.0042982

_cons 0.007849 0.0033091 2.37 0.02 0.0012606 0.0144365

dfuller tx, regress lags(1)

Dickey-Fuller test for unit root Number of obs = 80

---------- Interpolated Dickey-Fuller ---------

Test 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical

Statistic Value Value Value

Z(t) -0.726 -3.538 -2.906 -2.588

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.1620

D.fbr Coef. Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]

fbr

L1. -0.0061 0.0084095 -0.73 0.47 -0.0228448 0.0106392

_cons 0.003496 0.0012619 2.77 0.007 0.0009842 0.0060086

. dfuller r, lags(0)

Dickey-Fuller test for unit root Number of obs = 28

---------- Interpolated Dickey-Fuller ---------

Test 1% Critical 5% Critical 10% Critical

Statistic Value Value Value

Z(t) -0.66 -3.73 -2.992 -2.626

MacKinnon approximate p-value for Z(t) = 0.8569

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