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# OAR Box 1111 Prepped by Ryan Dugan



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# H46- ) 11-A-

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# PE I ASSOCIATE SP. 3

EXPOSUR E O F CHILDRE NT O LEAD-BASE D PAINT S



### b y Ann e Pop e PE I Associates , Inc . 50 5 Sout h Duk e Street , Suit e 50 3 Durham , Nort h Carolin a 27701-319 6
Contrac t No . 68-02-430 9 Wor k Assignmen t No . 9 P N3659- 9

Richar d B . Atherton , Projec t Office r Jef f Cohen , Wor k Assignmen t Manage r

STRATEGIE S AN D AI R STANDARD S DIVISIO N U.S . ENVIRONMENTA L PROTECTIO NAGENC Y RESEARC H TRIANGL E PARK , NORT H CAROLIN A2771 1

Januar y198 6P. 4

DISCLAIME R
Thi s repor t wa s prepare db y PE I Associates , Inc. , Cincinnati , Ohio , unde r Contrac t No . 68-02-4309 , Wor k Assignmen t No . 9 . I t ha s bee nreviewe d b y th e Strategie s andAi r Standard s Divisio no f th e Offic e o f Ai r Qualit y Plannin g andStandards , U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency , andapprove dfo r publication . Approva l doe s no t signif y tha t th e content s necessaril y reflec t th e view s andpolicie s o f th e U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency . Mentio n o f trad e name s o r commercia l product s i s no t intende dt o constitut e endorse men t o r recommendatio nfo r use .



### nP. 5

CONTENT S
Table s iv Acknowledgmen t v 1 . Introductio n1 2 . Mode l fo r Estimatin g Numbe r o f Childre nLivin g i nHome s Havin g Lead-Base dPain t 2 3 . Estimate s Produce db y Mode l 1 1 4 . Discussio no f Mode l Estimate s an dExposur e o f Childre nt o Leadfrom

Paint s 1 8 Reference s 2 0



### mP. 6

TABLE S
Numbe r Pag e 1 Housin g an

d Populatio nParameter s o f Lead-Base dPain t Exposur e Mode l 3 2 Estimate s o f Childre nPe r Household . 4 3 State s Locate di nth e Censu s Region s o f th e Unite dStates . . 5 4 Estimate s o f Percentag e o f Housin g Unit s Buil t Durin g

Indicate dPerio dWhic hContai nLead-Base dPaint s 6 5 Estimate s o f th e Numbe r o f UnsoundOccupie dHousin g Units . . 8 6 Estimate s o f Childre nResidin g i nHome s wit hLead-Base d

Paint s 1 2 7 Compariso n o f PEI' s Nationa l Estimate s wit h Thos e Presente d

i nth e Literatur e 1 7

i vP. 7

ACKNOWLEDGMEN T
Thi s repor t wa s prepare dfo r th e U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc y b y PE I Associates , Inc. , Cincinnati , Ohio . Mr . Jef f Cohe nwa s th e EP A Wor k Assignmen t Manager . Mr . Davi dDunba r serve da s th e Projec t Director ; Mr . Te d Johnso nwa s th e Projec t Manager . Th e principa l autho r wa s Ms . Ann e Pope . Th e autho r woul dlik e t o than k Mr . Jef f Cohe nfo r hi s guidanc e anddirectio n onthi s Wor k Assignment . Th e autho r woul dals o lik e t o acknowledg e Mr . Te d Johnson , Ms . Alici a Ferdo , an dMs . Donn a Sledg e fo r thei r assistanc e an d cooperation .P. 8

SECTIO N 1 INTRODUCTIO N
Th e U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc y (EPA ) i s currentl y

assessin g th e exposur e o f childre nunde r 7 year s o f ag e t o leadinthe environment . I nthi s ag e group , lea dpoisonin g occur s primaril y i nchildre nwh o resid e i nolder , deteriorating , lead-base dpainte dhome s (LPH's ) wher e th e pain t i s chalking , 1 2 3 flaking , and/o r peeling . ' ' Althoug hpeelin g lead-base dpaint s ar e implicate da s a majo r sourc e o f lea dexposur e i nchildren , investigation s b y Gilber t e t al . an

dGalk e e t al . sugges t tha t intac t lead-base dpaint s i n 4 5 home s als o contribut e t o th e exposur e o f childre nt o lead . ' Th e amoun t o f lea di npaint , th e integrit y o f th e painte dsurfaces , an dth e accessibilit y

o f lead-base dpain t chip s t o childre ndetermin e th e degre e o f the leadexposur e hazar dt o childre npose db y th e presenc e o f lead-base dpaints . I npoorl y maintaine dhome s wher e poo r housekeepin g occurs , peelin g lead-base dpaints , weathere dandpowdere dlead-base dpaints , andbroke nplaste r ar e source s o f lea dexposur e i nchildren . Unde r Wor k Assignmen t No . 9 , Contrac t No . 68-02-4309 , PE I Associates , Inc . (PEI ) develope da mode l t o estimat e 1 ) th e numbe r o f housin g unit s tha t ca nbe categorize da s LPH's , a s deteriorate dan ddilapidate d housin g units , anda s deteriorate dan ddilapidate dLPH's ; and2 ) th e numbe r o f childre nunde r 7 year s o f ag e wh o resid e i nhousin g unit s tha t fal l int o eac ho f thes e categories . Thi s repor t present s estimate s mad e b y thi s mode l an

ddis cusse s whethe r estimate s o f th e numbe r o f childre nwh o liv e inhome s wit hlead base dpaint s ar e reasonabl e estimate s o f th e numbe r o f childre nexpose dt o lead-base dpaints .P. 9

SECTIO N 2 MODE L FORESTIMATINGNUMBE RO F CHILDRE N LIVING I N HOME S HAVINGLEAD-BASE D PAINT S
PE I reviewe dth e literatur e t o develo pa mode l fo r predictin g th e numbe r o f LPH's , unsoun dhousin g units , and unsoun dLPH' s i nthe Unite dState s an d th e numbe r o f childre nwh o resid e i nthes e thre e categorie s o f homes . On e difficult y

encountere di nreviewin g th e literatur e i s th e disagreemen t amon g researcher s a s t o th e leve l o f leadinpainte dsurface s tha t constitute s a hazar dt o children . Currently , th e Cente r fo r Diseas e Control , CDC , consider s 2 6 home s tha t contai n0. 7 m g lead/c m

i npainte dsurface s t o b e hazardous . Many studies , however , defin e a hazar di nhome s t o be th e presenc e o f 1 percen t o r mor e leadi npainte dsurfaces . Thes e tw o definition s ar e no t comparable . Th e percentag e o f lea di npaint s doe s no t correspon ddirectl y o r indirectl y

t o m g 2 2 lead/c m i npainte dsurface s becaus e m g lead/c m

measure s th e leadtha t i s presen t i nsingl e an d multipl e layer s o f pain t ona surface . I ndefinin g th e amoun t o f lea di npain t tha t present s a hazar dt o children , PE I ha s decide d 2 t o us e th e curren t CD C definitio no f 0. 7 m g lead/cm

. Th e ag e o f housin g unit s and th e amoun t o f leadi npainte dsurface s ar e directl y related . Prio r t o 1940 , interio r paint s containe d5 0 percen t lead 2 b y weight . In1940 , titantiu m dioxid e (Ti0 2 ) paint s wer e use dinadditio nt o lead-base dpaint s inhomes . I n1955 , paint s wer e require dt o no t contai nmor e tha n1 percen t lea db y weight , an

d i n1971 , th e sal e o f interio r lead-base d g paint s wa s banne di nth e Unite dStates . Toda y indoo r househol dpaint s ar e

2 9 limite dt o a leadconten t o f no t mor e than0.0 6 percen t b y weight . ' Many o f th e home

s buil t prio rt o 1960 , however , stil l hav e lead-base d paint s o n interio r and exterio r surfaces , plasters , an d putties . Althoug hth e surface s i nolde r home s ma y

b e coate db

y paint s containin g n o lead , th e underlyin g layer s o f lead-base dpaint s stil l represen t a larg e sourc e o f environmenta l leadexposur e inchildren . PE I ha s develope da lead-base dpain t exposur e mode l base dprimaril y onth e ag e o f housin g unit s and th e occupanc y o f housin g unit s b

y children . Tabl e 1 list s th e parameter s o f th e model . Usin g th e housin g parameter s i nP.1 0

TABL E 1 . HOUSINGAN D POPULATIO N PARAMETER S O F LEAD-BASE D PAIN T EXPOSUR E MODE L Numbe r o f occupie dhousin g unit s currentl y standin g whic hwer e constructe d i nfou r period s Pre-194 0 194 0 t o 195 9 196 0 t o 197 4 197 5 t o 198 0 Percentag e o f housin g unit s i neac hconstructio nperio dabov e tha t contai n pain.te dsurface s wit h>0. 7 m g Tead/cm 2 Numbe r o f soundhousin g unit s Numbe r o f unsoun dhousin g unit s Numbe r o f childre n6-year s ol do r younge r inth e Unite dState s an di nfou r region s o f th e Unite dState s Numbe r o f childre npe r housin g uni t

Tabl e 1 , th e mode l estimate dth e numbe r o f occupie dhomes , LPH's , unsoun d homes , an

dunsoun dLPH' s i nth e entir e Unite dState s an di nfou r region s o f th e Unite dStates . Unsoun dhousin g unit s include ddeteriorate dan ddilapidate d home s wit hhole s i nth e walls , peelin g paint , and/o r broke nan dcracke d plaster . Th e mode l als o estimate dth e numbe r o f childre nwh o reside dinal l occupie ddwellings , LPH's , unsoun dhousin g units , an dunsoun dLPH's . Th e numbe r o f occupie dhousin g unit s wa s determine dfo r eac ho f th e followin g constructio nag e group s o f homes : pre-1940 , 194 0 t o 1959 , 196 0 t o 1974 , and197 5 t o 1980 . Thes e period s wer e selecte dt o be internall y consist en t wit hrespec t t o regulation s limitin g th e leadconten t o f paint s durin g differen t years , th e type s o f paint s use ddurin g constructio no f homes , and censu s data . Afte r determinin g th e numbe r o f housin g unit s constructe din eac hperiod , PE I estimate dth e tota l numbe r o f childre nunde r 7 year s o f ag e i n th e U.S . fro

m th e censu s data . Becaus e th e censu s dat a separate dchildre n9 year s o r younge r int o tw o ag e groups , i.e. , 0 t o 4 year s an d5 t o 9 years , PE I use ddat a containe di nInformatio nPleas e Almana c 198 5 t o calculat e th e numbe r o f childre nunde r 7 year s o f age . Th e 198 3 dat a reporte dinth e Almana c indicate d 40.6 4 percen t o f th e numbe r o f 5 t o 9-year-ol dchildre nwer e 5 an d6 year sP.1 1

o f age . T o estimat e th e numbe r o f childre n wh o wer e unde r 7 year s o f age , PE I use d th e followin g equation :
Childre n 0 t o 7 y r = censu s 0 t o 4 yr + (0.4604 ) (censu s 5 t o 9 yr) . (1 )

T o calculat e th e numbe r o f childre n pe r househol d i n a n area , PE I use d Equa
tio n 2 : Children/househol d = childre n 0 t o 7 yr/pre-198 1 housin g unit
. 

### (2 )
Tabl e 2 present s estimate s o f th e numbe r o f childre n i n household s i n th e entir e Unite d State s an d i n eac h o f th e fou r geographica l regions ; Tabl e 3 list s th e State s i n eac h o f th e fou r geographica l regions
.

TABL E 2 . ESTIMATE S O F CHILDRE NPE R HOUSEHOL D 11,12,1 3
Location 3 Nationa l Northeas t Midwes t Sout h Wes t Numbe r o f childre n

< 7 yr, 1000' s 23,06 7 4,43 9 6,17 1 7,86 5 4,59 2 Numbe r o f homes , 1000' s 80,39 0 17,47 1 20,85 9 26,48 6 15,57 4 Children/househol d 0.28 7 0.25 4 0.29 6 0.29 7 0.29 5
Se e Tabl e 3 fo r lis t o f State s i n eac h region
.
PE I reviewe d eigh t studie s containin g estimate s o f th e numbe r o f occupie d housin g unit s i n eac h ag e classificatio n o f home s tha t containe d on e o r mor e 2 painte d surface s wit h >0. 7 m g lead/c m. Tabl e 4 present s thes e estimate s and PEI' s bes t estimat e fo r eac h constructio n perio d base d o n th e literatur e review
. PEI' s estimate s ar e base d o n th e curren t CD C definitio n o f th e amoun t o f lea d i n painte d surface s tha t present s a hazar d t o children
. Base d o n a telephon e surve yo f loca l chil d lea d poisonin g programs , PE I assume d tha t lea d abatemen t occurre d i n approximatel y1 percen t o f home s constructe d prio r t o 1940 . I n th e literature , th e proportio n o f pre-194 0 dwelling s wit h lead-base d paint s 4P.1 2



### TABL E 3 . STATE S LOCATE D IN TH E CENSU S REGION S O F TH E UNITE D STATE S Regio n Northeas t

Midwes t

Sout h

Wes t State s

Connecticut , Maine , Massachusetts , Ne w Hampshire , Ne w Jersey , Ne w

York , Pennsylvania , Rhod e Island , andVermon t Illinois , Indiana , Iowa , Kansas , Michigan , Minnesota , Missouri , Nebraska , Nort hDakota , Ohio , Sout hDakota , andWisconsi n Alabama , Arkansas , Delaware , Distric t o f Columbia , Florida , Georgia , Kentucky , Louisiana , Maryland , Mississippi , Nort hCarolina , Oklahoma , Sout hCarolina , Tennessee , Texas , Virginia , an dWes t Virgini a Alaska , Arizona , California , Colorado , Hawaii , Idaho , Montana , Nevada , New

Mexico , Oregon , Utah , Washington , andWyomin gP.1 3

TABL E 4 . ESTIMATE S O F PERCENTAG E O F HOUSINGUNIT S BUIL T DURINGINDICATE D PERIO D WHIC H CONTAI N LEAD-BASE D PAINT S

Study EP A Criteri a Document 1 4 Billic k 3 andGra y Lin-Fu 1 5 Shie r and Hal l 1 6 Arizon a Healt h Depart men t 1 7 Minne-, „ apoli s 1 9 Gilsin n PEI' s Bes t Estimat e PEI' s Rang e Amoun t o f

leadi npainte d surfac e

>1. 5 mg/cm 3

2 >1. 5 mg/c m 2 >2. 0 mg/c m 2 >1. 0 mg/c m

2 ^ > l 1. 0 mg/c m

2 >1. 0 mg/c m 

### 1 %

2 >0. 7 mg/c m 2 >0. 7 mg/c m Pre 194 0



### 7 5

7 7

10 0 100 10 0

9 9
75-10 0 3 Yea r o f constructio n 194 0 t o 195 9



### 5 0 43 3


### 2 6

9 0

5 0

70
26-9 0 196 0 t o 197 4



### 2 0
2 0 13 a


### 1 5

0

20
0-2 0 197 5 t o 198 0



### 0

'Estimat e 1975 .P.1 4

, range dfro

m 7 5 t o 10 0 percent . Th e reporte dproportio no f home s wit hlead-base d paint s buil t fro

m 194 0 t o 195 9 varie dfro m 2 6 t o 9 0 percen t wit ha naverag e valu e o f approximatel y 5 0 percent . Therefore , th e proportio no f home s wit h lead-base dpaint s i s a t leas t 5 0 percen t andth e uppe r boundi s 9 0 percent . Becaus e o f th e chang e i nth e definitio no f th e amoun t o f lea dinpain t tha t 2 present s a hazar dt o childre nfro m mor e tha n2. 0 t o 0. 7 m g lead/c m

, PE I in crease dth e averag e valu e o f th e proportio no f home s constructe dfro m 194 0 t o 195 9 fro m 5 0 percen t t o 7 0 percen t b y averagin g th e literature' s estimate d value s o f 5 0 percen t an d9 0 percent . Fo r housin g unit s buil t fro m 196 0 t o 1974 , th e literatur e suggeste dtha t a naverag e o f 2 0 percen t o f th e home s containe d lead-base dpaints . Becaus e o f th e banonth e manufactur e o f interio r househol d paint s wit hgreate r tha n1 percen t lea dconten t i n1955 , PE I assume dtha t th e literature' s estimate dpercentag e o f LPH' s buil t fro m 196 0 t o 197 4 wa s reasonable . Becaus e o f th e legislatio ni n197 1 prohibitin g leadi ninterio r househol dpaints , PE I assume dtha t n

o home s constructe dfro m 197 5 t o 198 0 containe dlead-base d paints . Equatio n3 wa s use dt o estimat e th e numbe r o f LPH' s buil t prio r t o 1981 , andEquatio n4 wa s use dt o estimat e th e numbe r o f childre nwh o live di nLPH' s durin g 1980 .
LPH 8 0 = °' 9 9 H pre-4 0 + °- 7 0 H 40-5 9 + °- 2 0 H 60-7 4 (3 )

Childre ni nLPH 8 0 = (LPH Q0 )(children/household ) (4 )

Th e variabl e LPH 8 Q wa s th e numbe r o f occupie dLPH' s constructe dprio r t o 1981 ; H 4 Q wa s th e numbe r o f occupie dhome s buil t prio r t o 1940 ; H 40 _r- g wa s th e numbe r o f occupie dhome s constructe dfro m 194 0 t o 1959 ; an

dHg Q

_ 7 4 wa s th e numbe r o f occupie dhome s buil t fro m 196 0 t o 1974 . T o estimat e th e numbe r o f unsoun doccupie dhomes , PE I contacte dth e America nHousin g Surve y Departmen t inth e U.S . Censu s Burea uan dobtaine d198 3 dat a onth e numbe r o f unsoun dhousin g unit s inth e Unite dState s a s a whol e an d i neac ho f th e fou r censu s regions . Th e America nHousin g Surve y categorize d home s int o thre e group s accordin g t o th e conditio no f wall s an dceilings : home s tha t containe dholes , home s wit hpeelin g paint , an dhome s wit hbroke nan d cracke dplaster . Tabl e 5 present s th e America nHousin g Surve y dat a o na nationa l anda regiona l basi s fo r th e thre e unsoun dcondition s o f housin gLocation 3

Nationa l Northeas t Midwes t Sout h Wes t TABL E

Numbe r o f occupie d homes , 1000' s 84,63 8 18,22 1 21,61 8 27,93 1 16,46 7 5 . ESTIMATE S O F TH E NUMBE R

Unsoun d home s wit h hole s Number , 1000' s 5,21 0 1,31 8 1,04 0 2,64 5 

### 88 7 Percentag e



### 6. 2 7. 2 4. 8 9. 5 5. 4 O F UNSOUN D OCCUPIE D HOUSIN G

Unsoun d home s wit h peelin g

pain t Number , 1000' s 3,96 8 1,08 9 

### 84 4 1,05 0 

### 62 7 Percentag e



### 4. 7 6. 0 3. 9 3. 8 3. 8 i UNIT S
Unsoun d home s wit h broke n

plaste r Number , 1000' s 3,17 8 

### 93 9 73 3 1,01 2 

### 46 4 Percentag e



### 3. 8 5. 2 3. 4 3. 6 2. 8
Se e Tabl e 3 fo r lis t o f State s i n eac h censu s region
. o o Source : America n Housin g Survey , Referenc e 2 0P.1 6

units . PE I chos e t o estimat e th e numbe r o f unsoundhome s a s th e percentag e o f housin g units tha t hav e peelin g pain t an dt o us e th e percentag e o f home s wit hhole s a s a nuppe r boundan dth e percentag e o f home s wit hbroke nan d cracke dplaste r a s a lowe r bound . Nationally , th e percentag e o f occupie d unsoun dhousin g unit s range dfro m 3. 8 t o 6. 2 percent , wit ha bes t estimat e o f 4. 7 percent . Regionally , th e Northeas t ha dth e greates t percentag e an dnumbe r o f unsoun dhome s base do nth e peelin g paint/broke nplaste r definitio no f "un sound. " Whe nth e America nHousin g Surve y dat a wer e analyze daccordin g t o ownershi po f housin g units , th e percentag e o f unsoundhome s inal l thre e cate gorie s wa s greate r i nrenter-occupie ddwelling s tha ninowner-occupie dhousin g unit s i nal l fou r region s o f th e Unite dStates . Th e America nHousin g Surve y percentage s o f unsoun dhousin g wer e compare d wit hdat a o npercentage s o f childre nresidin g i nunsoun dhousin g a s reporte d 1 2 1 i nstudie s b

y Jenkin s an

dO'Hara . ' Jenkin s estimate dtha t 12. 5 percen t o f th e U.S . populatio nreside s insubstandar dhousing , primaril y inmetropolita n ghettos . O'Har a estimate dtha t 1 0 percen t o f al l childre nyounge r tha n6-year s 2 1 liv e indeterioratin g home s i nurba nareas . Althoug hth e estimate dpercentage s o f unsoun dhousin g reporte db y Jenkin s an

dO'Har a wer e highe r tha nPEI' s bes t estimate , the y

wer e simila r t o th e percentag e o f renter-occupie dunsoun dhousin g i nth e Northeas t reporte db y th e America nHousin g Survey . Th e numbe r o f owner occupie dhousin g units , however , wa s approximatel y twic e th e numbe r o f renter 2 0 occupie dhomes . Becaus e th e estimate s o f Jenkin s an dO'Har a wer e fo r urba n ghett o areas wher e th e majorit y o f housin g unit s wer e no t owner-occupied , PE I assume dtha t th e nationa l an dregiona l America nHousin g Surve y percentage s o f unsoun dhousing , whic hinclud e owner-occupie dan drenter-occupie dhome s wer e reasonabl e estimate s an dprobabl y

mor e representativ e o na nationa l leve l tha n th e estimate s b

y Jenkin s an

dO'Hara . Th e estimate s o f Jenkin s an dO'Har a may , however , be mor e representativ e o f th e populatio naroun dpoin t source s o f renter - an

downer-occupie dhousing . T o calculat e th e number s o f unsoun dhome s an dunsoun dLPH's , PE I use d Equation s 5 an

d6 : UnsoundH 8 Q = (% unsound)(H 8Q ) (5 )

UnsoundLPH 8 Q = (5

5 unsound)(LPH 8Q ) (6 )P.1 7

wher e Hg Q wa s th e numbe r o f occupie dhousin g unit s in1980 . Equation s 7 and 8 wer e use dt o estimat e th e numbe r o f childre nwh o reside di nunsoun dhome s andunsoun dLPH' s i n1980 :

Childre ni nunsoun dH g 0 = (unsoundH Q0 )(children/household ) (7 )
Childre ni nunsoun dLPH g 0 = (unsoundLPH 8Q )(children/household) . (8 )

T o improv e th e estimate s produce db y PEI' s model , th e percentage s o f un soundoccupie dhousin g unit s classifie db y ag e o f constructio nshoul dbe de termined . Becaus e o f a lac k o f information , PE I assume dtha t th e percentag e o f unsoun dhousin g wa s identica l fo r al l age s o f homes . Becaus e i t i s probabl e tha t th e rat e o f deterioratio ni s highe r i nhome s buil t prio r t o 194 0 andlowe r i nhome s buil t afte r 1970 , th e effect s o f th e ag e o f housin g unit s o nth e per centag e o f unsoun dhousin g shoul dbe negligible . Therefore , th e America n Housin g Surve y

percentage s o f unsoun dhome s appear s t o be reasonable . Base don th e literature , th e othe r variable s estimate db y PE I i nEquation s 1 throug h8 wer e assume dt o b e accurate .



### 1 0P.1 8

SECTIO N 3 ESTIMATE S PRODUCE D B YMODE L
Tabl e 6 present s th e nationa l an dregiona l mode l estimate s o f th e numbe r o f occupie dhomes , LPH's , unsoun dhomes , an dunsoun dLPH' s an

dth e numbe r o f childre nresidin g i nhome s i neac ho f thes e fou r categorie s o f homes . Nationa l "best " estimate s o f th e numbe r o f LPH's , unsoun dhomes , an dunsoun dLPH' s andth e numbe r o f childre nlivin g i nthes e home s wer e determine db y usin g th e estimate d percentage s o f lead-base dpaint s inhousin g unit s accordin g t o ag e o f con structio nandth e America nHousin g Surve y percentag e o f unsoun dhome s wit h peelin g paint . Uppe r andlowe r bound s wer e calculate dfo r th e nationa l estimate s fro m th e rang e o f percentage s o f home s wit hlead-base dpaint s reporte dinth e literatur e andfro

m th e rang e o f percentage s o f unsoun dhousin g presente db y th e America nHousin g Survey . O na regiona l basis , PE I calculate donl y bes t estimate s o f th e numbe r o f LPH's , unsoun dhomes , an dunsoun dLPH' s andth e num be r o f childre nlivin g i neach . O f th e 80,390,00 0 occupie dnationa l housin g units : i n1980 , 25. 8 percen t wer e buil t prio r t o 1940 , 28. 6 percen t wer e buil t betwee n194 0 an d1959 , 33. 1 percen t wer e buil t betwee n196 0 an d1974 , an

d12. 5 percen t wer e buil t betwee n 197 5 and1980 . I t i s estimate dtha t i n198 0 approximatel y 5 2 percen t o f th e 2 occupie dhome s i nth e Unite dState s contai n>0. 7 m g lead/c m

i npainte dsurfaces , a leve l considere dhazardou s t o youn g children . Th e estimate dnumbe r o f LPH' s range s fro

m 21,529,00 0 t o 47,315,000 ; PEI' s bes t estimat e i s 41,964,000 . Th e esti mate dnumbe r o f unsoun dhome s i nth e Unite dState s range s fro m 3,055,00 0 t o 4,984,000 ; an

dPEI' s bes t estimat e i s 3,778,000 . Th e 3,778,00 0 home s tha t ar e classifie da s unsoun dbecaus e o f peelin g pain t accounte dfo r 4. 7 percen t o f th e tota l occupie dhousin g unit s i nth e Unite dStates . Th e numbe r o f unsoun d LPH' s varie s fro

m 818,00 0 t o 2,933,000 ; PEI' s bes t estimat e i s 1,972,000 . Th e numbe r o f unsoun dLPH' s wit hpeelin g pain t range s fro m 1,012,00 0 t o 2,223,00 0 wit hPEI' s bes t estimat e bein g 1,972,000 . Th e numbe r o f unsoun d LPH' s wit hhole s i nwall s range s fro m 1,335,00 0 t o 2,933,000 ; PEI' s bes t


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estimat e i s 2,602,000 . Th e numbe r o f unsoun d LPH' s wit h broke n o r cracke d plaste r range s fro m

818,00 0 t o 1,798,00 0 wit h PEI' s bes t estimat e o f 1,595,000 . A s indicate d previously , a n unsoun d hom e coul d contai n holes , peelin g paint , and broke n plaster . PEI' s bes t estimat e o f unsoun d housin g wa s define d a s home s containin g peelin g paint
. Accordin g t o PEI' s bes t esti

mate , 1,972,00 0 unsoun d LPH' s accoun t fo r 2. 4 percen t o f occupie d housin g unit s i n th e Unite d States . Unsoun d LPH' s represen t th e larges t lea d hazar d t o childre n becaus e o f th e increase d accessibilit yo f peelin g lead-base d paint s fo r ingestio n bychildre n unde r 7 year s o f age . Th e estimate s i n Tabl e 6 sugges t tha t th e numbe r o f LPH' s and unsoun d LPH' s increase s wit h th e ag e o f th e dwellings
. T o determin e th e potentia l exposur e t o lea d amon g childre n residin g i n LPH's , PE I estimate d th e numbe r o f childre n residin g i n occupie d housin g units , LPH's , unsoun d dwellings , an d unsoun d LPH's . I n 1980 , ther e wer e 23,071,00 0 childre n unde r th e ag e o f 7 livin g i n th e Unite d States . Th e estimate d numbe r o f childre n residin g i n LPH' s range s fro m6,179,00 0 t o 13,579,00 0 wit h PEI' s bes t estimat e o f 12,043,000 . Thes e 12,043,00 0 childre n represen t 5 2 percen t o f th e U.S . childre n 6 year s ol d an d younger . Th e estimate d numbe r o f childre n residin g i n unsoun d housin g range s fro m877,00 0 t o 1,430,000 ; PEI' s bes t estimat e i s 1,084,000 . Thi s bes t estimat e o f 1,084,00 0 i s base d o n th e numbe r o f childre n wh o resid e i n unsoun d home s wit h peelin g paint
. Th e numbe r o f childre n livin g i n unsoun d LPH' s range s fro m235,00 0 t o 842,000 , wit h PEI' s bes t estimat e bein g 567,000 . Th e numbe r o f childre n residin g i n unsoun d LPH' s wit h peelin g pain t range s fro m290,00 0 t o 638,000 ; PEI' s bes t estimat e i s 567,000 . Th e numbe r o f childre n residin g i n unsoun d LPH' s wit h hole s i n wall s range s fro m383,00 0 t o 842,00 0 wit h PEI' s bes t estimat e bein g 747,000 ; and th e numbe r o f childre n livin g i n unsoun d LPH' s wit h broke n o r cracke d plaste r range s fro m 235,00 0 t o 516,00 0 wit h PEI' s bes t estimat e o f 458,000 . Acompariso n o f regiona l estimate s o f housin g and childre n residin g i n th e housin g indicate s th e Northeas t ha s th e larges t numbe r and percentage s o f unsoun d LPH' s and childre n wh o liv e i n unsoun d LPH's , and th e Wes t ha s th e smallest . O f 4,439,00 0 childre n i n th e Northeast , 6 5 percen t resid e i n LPH's ; 6 percent , i n unsoun d housing ; and 3. 9 percent , i n unsoun d LPH' s wit h peelin g paint
. O f 6,171,00 0 childre n i n th e Midwest , 57. 8 percen t resid e i n LPH's ; 3. 9 percent , i n unsoun d housing ; an d 2. 2 percen t i n unsoun d LPH's . O f 7,865,00 0 childre n i n 1 5P.2 3

th e Sduth , 43. 6 percen t resid e i nLPH's ; 3. 8 percent , i nunsoun dhousing ; and 1. 6 percent , i nunsoun dLPH's . O f 4,592,00 0 childre ni nth e West , 44. 5 percen t resid e i nLPH's ; 3. 8 percent , i nunsoun dhomes ; and1. 7 percent , i nunsoun dLPH's . Th e regiona l estimate s ar e assume dt o be reasonabl e becaus e th e Northeas t ha s a greate r prevalenc e o f olde r home s concentrate di nurba narea s andth e Wes t an dSout hhav e newe r home s wit hfewe r home s buil t prio r t o 1940 . Tabl e 7 compare s PEI' s bes t nationa l estimate s wit hestimate s cite di n fiv e studies . PEI' s estimate s ar e lowe r tha nmos t o f th e estimate s presente d i nth e studies . Th e uppe r boundo f Lin-Fu' s estimate drang e o f the numbe r o f LPH' s i nth e Unite dState s i s i nagreemen t wit hth e numbe r o f LPH' s estimate d 2 b y PEI . I nth e Lin-F ustudy , home s tha t containe d>2. 0 m g lead/c m

i npainte d surface s ar e classifie da s LPH's ; therefore , the uppe r boundi s a reasonabl e 2 estimat e o f th e quantit y o f LP H s wit h>0. 7 m g lead/cm

. Th e estimate s o f unsoun dhousin g andchildre ni nunsoun dhousin g presente di nstudie s b y Berger , Gilsinn , Jenkins , an dO'Har a ar e greate r tha nth e PE I estimates , bu t non e o f them define dunsoun dhousin g andth e studie s ar e older . PE I define s unsoun d housin g precisel y

a s home s tha t have peelin g paint . Becaus e PE I provide s docu mentatio no f variable s inth e mode l an duse s mor e recen t censu s data , th e PE I estimate s o f unsoun dhousin g unit s andchildre nresidin g i nunsoun dhousin g unit s ar e assume dt o be mor e accurat e tha nth e estimate s presente db y Berger , Gilsinn , Jenkins , andO'Hara .



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TABL E 7 . COMPARISON O F PEI' s NATIONAL ESTIMATE S WIT H THOS E PRESENTE D I

N TH E LITERATUR E

Stud y 

### PE I Q Berge r Lin-Fu 1 5
Gilsinn 1 9 Jenkin s O'Hara 2 1 Lea d i n

painte d surfac e 2 >0. 7 mg/c m
2 >2. 0 mg/c m 

### 1% Numbe r o f

LPH's , lOOO' s 41,96 4

39,00 0 t o 40,00 0 Numbe r

o f un sound , homes , lOOd' s 3,77 8 7,00 0

7,75 0 Numbe r

o f un soun d LPH's , 1000' s 1,97 2 Numbe r

chil

dre n i n LPH's , 1000's . 12,04 3 Numbe r

chil

dre n i n unsoun d homes , 1000' s 1,08 4

2,50 0 2,88 4 1,50 0 Numbe r

chil

dre n i n un soun d LPH's , 1000' s 

### 56 7

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SECTIO N 4 DISCUSSIO N

O F MODE L ESTIMATE S AN D EXPOSUR E O F CHILDRE N

T O LEAD FROM

PAINT S
Th e mode l produce s estimate s o f th e numbe r o f occupie dhomes , LPH's , unsoun dhomes , andunsoun dLPH' s an dth e numbe r o f childre nunde r 7 year s o f ag e wh o resid e inhome s i neac ho f thes e fou r categories . Exposur e o f chil dre nt o lead-base dpaint s i s highes t i nunsoundLPH' s tha t hav e peelin g paint ; however , childre nwh o liv e i nsoundLPH' s wit hintac t lead-base dpaint s als o ma y b e expose dt o lead . Amon g th e resident s inth e 41,964,00 0 LPH' s ar e a n estimate d12,043,00 0 childre nwh o ar e a t som e ris k o f exposur e t o lead-base d paints , andth e resident s o f 1,972,00 0 unsoun dLPH' s ar e estimate dt o includ e 567,00 0 childre nwh o ar e a t greates t ris k o f exposur e t o lead-base dpaints . PE I assume s tha t th e actua l numbe r o f childre nexpose dt o lead-base d paint s i nth e Unite dState s range s somewher e betwee nth e estimate d567,00 0 childre nwh o resid e i nunsoun dLPH' s andth e estimate d12,043,00 0 childre n wh o resid e i nLPH's . Th e estimat e o f childre nresidin g inunsoun dLPH' s appear s t o b e a reasonabl e representatio no f th e numbe r o f childre nexpose dt o lead-base d paints . Th e estimate dnumbe r o f childre nwh o resid e inunsoun dLPH' s ma y be lowe r tha nth e actua l numbe r o f childre nwh o resid e inunsoun dLPH's , however , becaus e th e mode l doe s no t calculat e th e percentag e o f unsoun dhousin g fo r eac h o f th e fou r ag e group s o f homes . Becaus e o f a lac k o f dat a inth e literature , PE I use dth e sam

e percentage s o f unsoun dhousin g fo r al l age s o f homes . Th e estimate dnumbe r o f childre nwh o resid e inLPH's , however , i s probabl y signifi cantl y greate r tha nth e actua l numbe r o f childre nexpose dt o lead-base dpaints . No t al l o f th e childre nlivin g i nLPH' s wit hintac t painte dsurface s ar e expose dt o lead-base dpaint , an dth e percentag e o f childre nwh o ar e expose di s no t indicate dinth e literature . Therefore , PE I present s a rang e o f estimate s o f th e numbe r o f childre nresidin g i nLPH' s wh o ar e expose dt o leadfro m lead base dpaints .



### 1 8P.2 6

Inadditio nt o exposure s i nthei r homes , childre nals o ma y be expose dt o lead-base dpaint s inday-car e center s o r i nth e home s o f sitters . Ina tele phon e surve y

o f leadpoisonin g preventio nprogram s inselecte dcitie s an d States , PE I foundno evidenc e o f lead-base dpaint s i nday-car e center s o r

2 2 2 3 schools . ' Inon e city , however , som e childre nwer e regularl y expose dt o 2 3 lead-base dpain t inprivat e home s o f sitter s ininne r cit y areas . Th e home s o f childre nappea r t o b e thei r primar y sourc e o f regula r exposur e t o lead-base d paints . Therefore , th e mode l estimate s provid e reasonabl e representatio no f th e exposur e o f childre nt o lead-base dpaints .



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REFERENCE S 1 . Jenkins , D . Desig no f Pollutant-Oriente dIntegrate dMonitorin g Systems , A Tes t Case : Environmenta l Lead . EPA-600/4-76-018 ; U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency , La s Vegas , Nevada , Apri l 1976 . 2 . Cente r fo r Diseas e Control . Preventin g LeadPoisonin g i nYoun g Chil dren . U . S . Departmen t o f Healt han dHuma nServices , Atlanta , Georgia , Januar y 1985 . 3 . Billick , I. , an

dV . Gray . Lead-Base dPain t Poisonin g Research , Review , an dEvaluation , 1971-1977 . HU D RP-809 . U.S . Departmen t o f Housin g an d Urba nDevelopment , Washington , D.C , Jul y 1978 . 4 . Gilbert , C , e t al . A Compariso no f LeadHazard s i nth e Housin g Environ men t o f Lea dPoisone dChildre nVersu s Nonpoisone dControls . Journa l o f Environmenta l Scienc e an dHealth , A14(3):145-168 , 1979 . 5 . Galke , W. , e t al . Environmenta l Determinant s o f LeadBurden s i nChildren . Presente da t th e Internationa l Conferenc e onHeav y Metal s i nth e Environ ment , Toronto , Canada , Octobe r 1975 . 6 . Persona l communicatio nb y Alici a Ferd o o f PE I wit hVerno nHou k o f th e Cente r fo r Diseas e Contro l onJul y 8 , 1985 . 7 . Stark , A. , e t al . Th e Relationshi po f Environmenta l Leadt o Blood-Lea d Level s i nChildren . Environmenta l Research , 27:372-383 , 1982 . 8 . Berger , H . Th e NB S LeadPain t Poisonin g Project : Housin g an dOthe r Aspects . NB S Tec hNot e 759 . Nationa l Burea uo f Standards , Washington , D.C , Februar y

1973 . 9 . Nationa l Academ

y o f Science s Committe e onLeadinthe Huma nEnvironment . Lea di nth e Huma nEnvironment . Washington , D.C , 1980 . 10 . Informatio nPleas e Almana c 1985 . 38t hEdition . Houghto nMiffli nCo. , Boston , 1985 . 11 . Detaile dPopulatio nCharacteristics , Unite dState s Summary , Sectio nB : Regions , 198 0 Censu s o f Population . P C 80-1-D1-B . Censu s Bureau , Washington , D.C , Marc h1984 .



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12. . Censu s Bureau . Detaile dHousin g Characteristics , Unite dState s Summary , 198 0 Censu s o f Housing ; H C 80-1-B1 . Washington , D.C , Decembe r 1983 . 13 . Censu s Bureau . Metropolita nHousin g Characteristics , Unite dState s Summary , 198 0 Censu s o f Housing . H C 80-2-1 . Washington , D.C , Marc h1984 . 14 . Revie w

o f th e Nationa l Ambien t Ai r Qualit y Standard s fo r Lead : Assess men t o f Scientifi c an dTechnica l Information . OAQP S Draf t Staf f Paper . Researc hTriangl e Park , Nort hCarolina , Apri l 1985 . 15 . Lin-Fu , J . Childhoo dLeadPoisoning : Th e Nationa l Perspective . Pre sente da t Childhoo dLea dPoisoning : I s I t Stil l a Problem , A Symposiu

m fo r Healt hCar e Providers , Cincinnati , Ohio , Jun e 25 , 1985 . 16 . Shier , D. , an

dW . Hall . Analysi s o f Housin g Dat a Collecte di na Lead Base dPain t Surve y

i nPittsburgh , Pennsylvania , Par t I . NBSI R77-1250 . Nationa l Burea uo f Standards , Washington , D.-C , Marc h1977 . 17 . Arizon a Departmen t o f Healt hServices . Lead-Base dPain t Repor t o f Find ing s t o th e Stat e Legislature . Decembe r 20 , 1976 . 18 . Persona l communicatio nfro m Davi dNordmeyer , Registere dEnvironmenta l Stat e Specialis t fo r Minnesota , Jul y 1985 . 19 . Gilsinn , J . Estimat e o f th e Natur e an dExten t o f LeadPain t Poisonin g i nth e Unite dStates . NB S Tec hNot e 764 . Nationa l Burea uo f Standards , Washington , D.C , Decembe r 1972 . 20 . Persona l communicatio nfro m America nHousin g Survey , Augus t 1985 . 21 . O'Hara , D . Socia l Factor s i nth e Recurrenc e o f Increase dLeadAbsorptio n i nChildren . In : Lea dAbsorptio ninChildren , J . J . Chisholm , Jr . an d D . M . O'Har a (Eds.) , Urba nan dSchwarzenberg , Baltimore , Maryland , 1982 . 22 . Persona l communicatio nfro m Cat o Kirksey , Environmenta l Healt hDivisio n Director , Lea dPoisonin g Preventio nProgram , Chicago , Illinois , Jul y 1985 . 23 . Persona l communicatio nfro m Ell a Witherspoon , LeadPoisonin g Preventio n Program , Washington , D.C , Jul y 1985 .



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