# 20 11 BASE YEAR EMISSIONS INVENTORY

FOR THE



# WASHINGTON DC

- MD

- VA

2008 OZONE NAAQS NONATTAINMENT A REA

Prepared by:

District Department of the Environment

, Maryland Department of the Environment,

Virginia Department of Environmental Quality,

and

Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

on behalf of the

Metropolitan Washington Air Quality Committee

July 9 , 2014TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. 0 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 1

- 1

1.1 Overview and Background

................................ ................................ .......................... 1

- 1

1.2 8

- Hour Ozone Nonattainment Geographic Area

................................ ......................... 1

- 2

1.3 Temporal Resolution

................................ ................................ ................................ .... 1

- 2

1.4 Quality Assurance Policy a nd Objectives

................................ ................................ .... 1

- 3

1.5 Plan Information Sources

................................ ................................ ............................. 1

- 3

1.6 Summary o f t he Base Year Emissions Inventory

................................ ........................ 1

- 4

1.7 Document Contents

................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 1

- 4

2. 0 POINT SOURCES

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 2

- 1

2.1 Introduction

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 2

- 1

2.2 Compilation a nd Documentation o f Point Source Emissions

................................ ...... 2

- 1

3.0 AREA AND NONROAD SOURCES

................................ ................................ ............. 3

- 1

3.1 Introduction and Scope

................................ ................................ ................................ 3

- 1

3.2 Area Sour ces

................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 3

- 1

3.2. 1 Emission Estimation Approach

................................ ................................ .............. 3

- 1

3. 2.2 Summary of Emission Results

................................ ................................ ............... 3

- 1

3. 3 Nonroad Source s

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 3

- 3

3. 3 .1 Non

- Nonroad Model Sources

................................ ................................ ................ 3

- 3

3. 3 .1.1 Emission Estimation Approach

................................ ................................ ........ 3

- 3

3. 3 .1.2 Summary of Emission Results

................................ ................................ ......... 3

- 3

3

. 3.2 Nonroad Model Sources

................................ ................................ ........................ 3

- 4

3. 3

. 2.1 Emission Estimation Approach

................................ ................................ ........ 3

- 4

3. 3.2.2 Summary of Emission Results

................................ ................................ ......... 3

- 5

4.0 ONROAD MOBILE SOURCES

................................ ................................ .................... 4

- 1

4.1 Introduction

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 4

- 1

4.2 Summary of On r oad Mobile Source Emissions

................................ ........................... 4

- 1

5.0 QUALITY ASSURANCE PROCEDURES

................................ ................................ ... 5

- 1

5.0 Quality Assurance Procedures

................................ ................................ ..................... 5

- 1

5.1 Reality Check/Peer Review Check

................................ ................................ .............. 5

- 1

5.2 Sample Calculations

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 5

- 1

5.3 Sensitivity Analysis

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 5

- 1

5.4 Standard Range Checks

................................ ................................ ............................... 5

- 2

5.5 Corrective Action Plan

................................ ................................ ................................ . 5

- 2List of Tables

1

- 1 2011 Base Ye ar SIP Emission Inventories

................................ ................................ ........ 1

- 4

2

- 1 2011 Base Year SIP Point Source Emission Inventories

................................ .................. 2

- 2

3

- 1 2011 Base Year SIP Area Source Emission Inventories

................................ ................... 3

- 2

3

- 2 2011 Base Year SIP Non

- Nonroad Model Source Emission Inventories

......................... 3

- 3

3

- 3 2011 Base Year SIP Non road Model Source Emission Inventories

................................ . 3

- 5

4

- 1 2011 Base Year SIP Onroad Source Emission Inventories

................................ ............... 4

- 2

List of Appendices

A. Point Source Inventory Files

B 1

. Area and Nonroad (Marine Vessels, Airport, Railroad Locomotives) Source Inventory

Developmen t Document ( M aryland )

B 2

. Area and Nonroad (Marine Vessels, Airport, Railroad Locomotives) Source Inventory

Development Document s ( Virginia)

B 3

. Area and Nonroad (Marine Vessels, Airport, Railroad Locomotives) Source Inventory

Development Document s ( Distri ct of Columbia)

B 4

. Area and Nonroad (Marine Vessels, Airport, Railroad Locomotives) Source Inventory Files

C

. N MIM2008 (NONROAD Model) Input & Output Files

D 1

. Onroad Mobi le Source Development Document

D 2

. MOVES2010a ( Onroad Mobile Model) Input & Output F iles

E. Public Hearing Notices

, Comments

, and Responses1

- 1

1.0 Introduction

1.1 Overview a nd Background

This document contains a detailed explanation of the 20 11 base year emissions inventory

for stationary, area, nonroad

, and mobile anthropogenic sources a s well as biogenic

sources in the Washington, DC

- MD

- VA 2008 ozone National Ambient Air Quality

Standards (NAAQS) nonattainment area. The inventory will be included as part of the

region’s State Implementation Plan (SIP) to meet the above NAAQS. Annual

anthropogenic emissions were estimated for volatile organic compound (VOC)

, nitrogen

oxide ( NO X ), carbon monoxide (CO) , fine particles ( PM 2.5

- Pri), sulfur dioxide ( SO 2 ), and

ammonia ( NH 3 ). Typical o zone season day emissions were developed for VOC, NO X , and CO

.

The federal Clean Air Act (CAA), 42 U.S.C.A § 7401 et seq , as amended by the Clean

Air Act Amendments of 1990, P.L. 101

- 549, (referred to hereafter as the Act)

, requires

all areas of the nation to attain and maintain compliance with the NAAQS . These feder al

standards are designed to protect the public health and welfare from six criteria

pollutants , one of which is ozone

.

The Washington, DC

- MD

- VA 2008 ozone NAAQS nonattainment area was designated

as a m arginal nonattainment area by the United State Envir onmental Protection Agency

( EPA ) effective July 20, 201 2 ( Federal Register

, Vol. 77, No. 98

, May 21, 2012 )

. Th is

base year inventory is required by the Act at §7502(c)(3):

(3) Inventory

– Such plan provisions shall include a comprehensive,

accurate, curre nt inventory of actual emissions from all sources of the

relevant pollutant or pollutant s in such area, including such period

revisions as the Administrator may determine necessary to assure that the

requirements of this part are met.

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Government s (MWCOG) prepared the nonroad

and onroad portions of the inventory

. MWCOG used EPA’s nonr oad m obile e missions

m odel, NONROAD 200 8a ( embedded in NMIM2008 ) to develop all nonroad emissions

except for c ommercial marine vessels, aircraft, and locomotives . These three sectors

were developed separately. MWCOG developed the 20 11 onroad mobile inventory using

EPA’s MO VES2010a model.

Air quality staff of the District Department of the Environment (DDOE), Maryland

Department of the Environment (MDE), and Virginia Department of Environmental

Quality (VDEQ), herein referred to as “state air agencies,” in collaboration with

MWCOG, supplied area and point source emissions estimates.

EPA’s estimates for biogenic emissions f or the NEI201 1 effort were accepted for the

purposes of submission of the base year 2011 biogenic inventories. Methodology for1

- 2

developing biogenic inventories is described in detail in the T echnical Support Document

for the NEI2011 effort. 1

E missions inventory data is used in annual trends reports, SIP submittal s, compliance

demonstrations, emissions trading, emissions fee programs, and in modeling activities

designed to evaluate ambient air concentrations encountered by the general public. For

the SIP program, the e mission inventory is a fundamental building block in developing an

air quality control and maintenance strategy. Regulatory agencies rely on emission

inventories as indicators of air quality changes and for setting permit requirements.

The end use of em ission inventories requires that they be of the highest quality

obtainable. The se data are the foundation of air quality decisions. Inventory quality is

critical to defining realistic regulations and attainment strategies.

1.2 2008 Ozone NAAQS Nonattainment Area Geography

Effective July 20

, 2012 , EPA designated the following jurisdictions in the Washington,

D C

- MD

- VA area as nonattainment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS

.

 District of Columbia

 Calvert County, Maryland

 Charles County, Maryland

 Frederick County, Maryland

 Montgomery County, Maryland

 Prince George's County, Maryland

 Arlington County, Virginia

 Alexandria City, Virginia

 Fairfax County, Virginia (includes the independent cities of Fairfax and Falls

Church)

 Loudoun County, Virginia

 P rince William County, Virginia (includes the independent cities of Manassas and

Manassas Park)

1.3 Temporal Resolution

Another step of inventory development is the temporal allocation of emissions. The

temporal allocation is an accounting of emission variation s over time. The simplest

temporal allocation is for a steady

- state emissions source that continually releases

emissions at the same rate throughout the year . Under actual conditions, however, steady

state emission sources are quite rare. Instead, under ac tual conditions, emissions sources

may operate only in the winter, not operate on Sundays, or their activity may peak during

certain hours of the day

. The temporal allocation of emissions must reflect as accurately

as possible the reality of emissions occu rring to the atmosphere. Ozone formation

depends on the presence of ozone precursor s as well as the amount of sunlight and other

1 EPA NEI2011 Web

- site

- http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/net/2011inventory.html1

- 3

meteorological impacts. Since ozone is typically a summertime pollutant, emissions

during the summer months are more importan t to air quality than are e mi ssions during

other times o f the year. For these reasons, ozone precursor base year emissions are

represented as typical ozone season daily emissions (ozone season tons per day)

. The planning period for the 2008 o zone NAAQS e missions inventory cover s the ozone

season defined as May through September. For the purpose of submitting the base year

20 11 SIP inventory to EPA, a nnual emissions are estimated for VOC, NO X , CO, PM 2.5

- Pri, SO 2 , and NH 3 . O zone season day emissions are estimated for the ozone precursors of

V OC , NOx, and CO

.

1.4 Quality Assurance Policy and Objectives

In order to provide data of sufficient quality for attainment and maintenance planning

needs, quality assurance (QA) and quality control (QC) procedures are part of the

inventory process. The procedures address data quality objectives of accuracy,

completeness, comparability

, and representativeness. The target goals for each objective

are listed below.

Accuracy: All estimates must be calculated and docum ented using acceptable methods.

Individual source requirements and availability of data and resources will affect the

estimation method selection.

Completeness: Completeness is addressed by ensuring that all applicable source

categories are included in th e inventory and that all information required to estimate

emissions is present.

Comparability: Data will be compared to the most recent base year inventor y : 20 11

National Emissions Inventory (NEI) for VOC, NO X , and CO. Any discrepancies (data

outliers) must be verified or corrected

.

Representativeness: Actual 20 11 annual and the typical ozone season day emissions will

be calculated for the base year inventory. Local data will be used in inventory

calculations wherever possible.

1.5 Plan Information So urces

This plan draws upon inventory, quality assurance, and emissions projections guidance

available from state and federal agencies and partnerships. The effort also draw s upon

experience gained during previous emission inventory reviews.

A primary source of emissions inventory data is the 20 11 NEI , which was submitted to

EPA by the state air agencies

.1 -4

1.6 Summary o f the Base Year Emissions Inventory

Summaries of the ozone precursor emissions in tons per day (TPD) and tons per year

(TPY ) for the Washington, DC- MD

- VA 2008 ozone NAAQS nonattainment area are

shown in Table 1 -1

. Summaries relating to the individual sections of the inventory, such

as point sources, may be found at the beginning of the respective section. Slight

differences between the executive summary table and the section tables are due to

rounding.

Table 1 -1

2011 Base Year SIP Emission Inventories

Washington, DC- MD -VA 2008 Ozone NAAQS Nonattainment Area

Source

Category VOC

(TPD) NO X (TPD) CO

(TPD) VOC

(TPY) NO X

(TPY) CO

(TPY) PM 2.5 -

Pri

(TPY) SO 2

(TPY) NH 3

(TPY)

Point 6.96 15 1.57 32.21 1,223.23 14,134.09 4,189.84 1,669.61 14,393.80 53.21

Area 134.86 2.39 31.67 46,333.16 8,827.77 42,671.86 11,582.23 3,910.64 3,573.82

Nonroad 70.80 77.08 841.96 18,661.42 24,036.39 215,002.54 2,018.93 961.98 2 5.55

On

- road 82.35 205.48 894.98 28,981.19 71,099.71 355,846.05 2,771.45 420.83 1,625.23

Anthropogenic

Subtotal 294.98 436. 52 1,800.82 95,199.00 118,097.96 617,710.29 18,042.21 19,687.25 5,27 7 .8 1

1. 7 Document Contents

Chapter 2 Presents the methodology for developing the 2011 ozone precursor

emissions from point sources.

Chapter 3 Presents the methodology for developing the 2011 ozone precursor

emissions from area and nonroad sources.

Chapter 4 Presents the methodology for developing the 2011 ozone precursor

emissions from onroad mobile sources.

Chapter 5 Presents the QA/QC plan for the 2011 ozone precursor emissions

inventory.

The point, area, nonroad, and onroad source emissions inventory development

documentation; detailed emissions by source classification code (SCC); and nonroad and

onroad model input and output files are presented in Appendices A through D of this

document.2

- 1

2.0 Point Sources

2.1 Introduction

This section documents the development of the Washington, DC

- MD

- VA 2008 ozone NAAQS

nonattainment area stationary point source emissions inventory

. This section characterize s the

point source component of the emissions inventory by describing the 20 11 ozone season day and

annual emissions estimation techniques. The point source inventory consists of actual emissions

for a typical ozone season day and for the entire period in t he year 20 11 . The inventory includes

sources located within the Washington DC

- MD

- VA 2008 ozone NAAQS nonattainment area.

The state air agencies are responsible for developing point source emission s inventories and

maintaining the data. MWCOG compiled the ozone season day and annual emissions data

provided by the state air agencies for inclusion in this emissions inventor y document.

2.2 Compilation and Documentation of Point Source Emissions

The state air agencies maintain substantial database s of both small and large ai r emission

sources . The list of point sources in this inventory was developed by applying the appropriate

thresholds to the emission levels in the database s to differentiate between point and area

stationary sources. Sources wit h emission levels greater than the threshold or sources previously

included in P eriodic Emissions Inventory subm ittals are by definition point sources while

sources with emissions levels less than the thresholds are by definition area sources.

For Virgini a units, t emporal allocation of emissions from annual to ozone season day was

accomplished using EPA’s generally accepted emissions calculation techniques for all point

sources other than those units reporting emissions and activity data to the Clean Air M arkets

Division (CAMD) database under 40 CFR Part 75. For units reporting to CAMD, the hourly

average NO X emission rate for hours operated during the summer months of 2011 (May through

September) was multiplied by 24 hours per day to calculate a typical ozone season daily rate in

tons per day.

Full documentation on point sources and emissions in individual states are maintained by the

respective state air agency responsible for the state in which the facility or source is located.

Appendix A provides a detailed description of the total point sou rce emissions for the

Washington, DC

- MD

- VA 2008 ozone NAAQS nonattainment area

.2

- 2 Table 2

- 1

2011 Base Year SIP Point Source Emission Inventories

Washington, DC

- MD

- VA 2008 Ozone NAAQS Nonattainment Area

1 There ar e no VOC, NO X , CO, PM 2.5 - Pri, SO 2 , and NH 3 emissions for the Virginia Independent City of Manassas Park. Point Source Emissions

– Base Year 2011 SIP Emission Inventory

Metropolitan Washington NAA 1 Pollutant

Calvert County Charles County Fredrick County Montgomery County Prince George's County Arlington County Fairfax County Fairfax City Fairs Church

City Loudoun County Prince William County Manassas City Alexandria City District Of Columbia

MD Total

VA Total

NAA Total

Tons per ozone season

day

VOC 0.07 0.76 0.49 0.36 1.34 0.07 1.37 0.36 0.00 02 1.02 0.73 0.14 0.06 0.19 3.02 3.75 6.96

NO X 1.28 28.15 0.68 14.53 50.05 0.87 18.83 0.04 0.01 10.02 1 2.96 1.03 11.74 1.39 94.70 55. 48 1 5 1.57

CO 0.43 2.4 1 0.80 3.28 6.88 0.36 12.12 0.05 0.00 05 2.46 1.61 0.29 0.55 0.98 13.79 17.44 32.21

Tons per year

VOC 6 103 125 44 194 9 243 131 0.00 3 89 156 41 11 70.84 472.42 679.96 1

, 223.23

NO X 48 1 ,421 87 2,611 5,020 75 2,149 7 0.07 216 724 21 1,052 702.88 9

, 187.12 4

, 244.09 14

, 134.09

CO 9 698 127 490 942 49 800 16 0.01 207 252 24 136 438.86 2

, 266.33 1

, 484.65 4

, 189.84

PM 2.5 - Pri 4 595 22 146 578 0

. 09 28 0.04

- 2 178 10 50 55.44 1

, 344.75 269.42 1

, 669.61

SO 2 0.25 5,715 14 1,275 5,811 16 141 0.04 0.01 13 320 3 515 569.92 12

, 815.23 1

, 008.65 14

, 393.80

NH 3 - 1

- 2 1

- - - - - 43 6 0.23 0.00 4.12 49.09 53.213

- 1

3.0 Area and Nonroad Sources

3.1 Introduction and Scope

This document contains a detailed explanation of how the 20 11 emissions inventory for area

and nonroad sources of VOC

, NO X , CO, PM 2.5

- Pri, SO 2 , and NH 3 was developed. Emissions

inventories for area and a few nonroad source s

- marine vessels , airport , rail road locomotives

(MAR)

- for a typical ozone season day and the entire year in 20 11 were prepared by the

state air agencies. The MWCOG staff developed emissions for re maining nonroad sources

using NMIM2008 software. The MWCOG staff also compiled this information f or inclu sion

in this base year inventory document.

Area sources include stationary sources not part of the st ates' point source inventories

, usually because the source type is too small to be tracked individually and is instead tracked

as a group or category

. Nonroad sources include equipment that draws power from engines

for purposes other than movement on the highway system. Examples include lawn and

garden equipment, cons truction equipment s

, r ecreational boating , etc

.

All questions or comments regarding the area and MAR emissions in this document should

be directed to the respective state air agency.

3.2 Area Sources

3.2.1 Emission Estimation Approach

The state air agencies provided d etailed documentation regarding the development of

em issions for a rea sources. This information is located in Appendix B1, B2, and B3

respectively.

3. 2. 2 Summary of Emission Results

Ta ble 3

- 1 lists emissions for the counties and citie s in the Washington, DC

- MD

- VA 2008

ozone NAAQS nonattainment area

. Appendix B4 is an electronic attachment that provides

the detail of these emissions data

.3

- 2 Table 3

- 1

2011 Base Year SIP Area Source Emission Inventories

Washington, DC

- MD

- VA 2008 Ozone NAAQS Nonattainment Area

Jurisdiction VOC

(TPD) NO X

(TPD) CO

(TPD) VOC

(TPY) NO X

(TPY) CO

(TPY) PM 2.5 - Pri

(TPY) SO 2

(TPY) NH 3

(TPY)

District of Columbia 1 2.98 0.01 0.25 4,212.49 1,357.18 867.30 381.41 981.52 147.06

Calvert County 2.09 0.06 1.93 679.34 94.11 1,024.79 253.26 91.97 45.79

Charles County 3.78 0.16 5.38 1,248.73 227.22 2,622.87 536.67 183.29 69.93

Frederick County 6.59 0.16 5.46 2,141.56 399.37 3,129.81 1,042.75 284.57 1,489.06

Montgomery County 23.03 0.04 1.94 7,458.41 1,555.02 4,869.65 1,867.42 379.72 344.29

Prince George’s

County 20.24 0.08 2.57 6,592.32 1,271.14 4,721.60 1,261.01 361.60 296.99

Maryland Total 55.73 0.50 17.29 18,120.37 3,546.87 16,368.72 4,961.11 1,301.15 2,246.06

Arlington County 5.50 0.09 0.35 2,130.12 402.11 2,643.68 567.74 158.45 54.56

Fairfax County 30.55 0.89 3.23 11,102.29 1,955.18 11,216.08 2,657.38 802.35 413.07

Fairfax City 1.20 0.02 0.05 399.62 52.38 243.70 82.71 20.39 15.17

Falls Church City 0.43 0.01 0.02 153.61 26.41 142.47 51.63 10.17 10.94

Loudoun County 9.50 0.37 2.73 3,414.28 532.15 3,653.13 1,273.07 225.16 391.60

Prince William County 13.10 0.32 7.25 4,754.46 585.35 6,107.55 1,245.42 258.13 242.86

Manassas City 1.31 0.05 0.12 467.47 75.62 371.29 105.04 31.79 13.52

Manassas Park City 0.44 0.01 0.04 159.42 19.62 125.14 27.05 8.86 4.44

Alexandria City 4.11 0.12 0.34 1,419.04 274.90 932.79 229.67 112.68 34.55

Virginia Total 66.15 1.88 14.13 24,000.30 3,923.72 25,435.84 6,239.71 1,627.97 1,180.71

Region Total 134.86 2.39 31.67 46,333.16 8,827.77 42,671.86 11,582.23 3,910.64 3,573.823 -3

3.3 Nonroad Sources

Emissions for nonroad sources other than MAR were estimated using EPA’s

NONROAD2008 model embedded in the NMIM2008 software. Emissions estimation

approaches for both categories of nonroad sources are described below.

3.3.1 Marine Vessels, Airport, Railroad Locomotives

3.3.1.1 Emission Estimation Approach

Detailed documentation for the development of MAR emissions were provided by the state

air agencies. The state-specific documentation may be found in Appendix B1, B2, and B3,

respectively.

3. 3.1.2 Summary of Emission Results

Table 3 -2 lists emissions for counties and cities in the Washington, DC- MD

- VA 2008 ozone

NAAQS nonattainment area. Detailed emissions breakdowns may be found in electronic

format in Appendix B4 of this document.

Table 3 -2

2011 Base Year SIP MAR Emission Inventories

Washington, DC- MD -VA 2008 Ozone NAAQS Nonattainment Area

Jurisdiction VOC

(TPD) NO X

(TPD) CO

(TPD) VOC

(TPY) NO X

(TPY) CO

(TPY) PM 2.5 - Pri

(TPY) SO 2

(TPY) NH 3

(TPY)

District of Columbia 0.23 3.01 2.52 25.64 330.63 62.86 8.67 13.28 0.00 2

Calvert County 0.09 2.54 0.29 31.94 925.76 105.68

- 500.74

- Charles County 0.04 0.08 0.66 15.41 30.72 241.69 0.78 2.23

- Frederick County 0.22 1.25 4.39 80.80 456.17 1,603.02 12.16 10.51

- Montgomery County 0.09 0.96 1.31 33.00 351.36 478.24 9.95 3.12

- Prince George’s

County 0.24 1.17 1.44 86.38 427.36 525.66 8.54 15.68

-

Maryland Total 0.68 6.00 8.09 247.54 2,191.37 2,954.29 31.43 532.27

- Arlington County 0.57 3.73 6.33 209.40 1360.76 2309.77 34.81 159.37 0.0 1

Fairfax County 0.06 0.99 0.26 22.61 359.65 95.43 10.38 6.51 0. 09

Loudoun County 0.76 5.20 8.47 279.17 1898.57 3089.74 50.08 194.12

- Prince William County 0.04 0.80 0.15 15.98 291.55 55.63 8.78 3.67 0.10

Manassas City 0.02 0.04 0.66 8.34 16.21 240.13 5.02 0.95 0.01

Manassas Park City 0.00 02 0.00 4 0.00 06 0.08 1.48 0.24 0.05 0.02 0.0 007

Alexandria City 0.02 0.39 0.10 8.90 141.97 35.14 4.18 1.78 0. 03

Virginia Total 1.49 11.15 15.96 544.48 4,070.20 5,826.08 113.31 366.42 0.24

Region Total 2.40 20.16 26.58 817.65 6,592.20 8,843.22 153.41 911.97 0.24

Note: The cities of Fairfax and Falls Church, located within the Commonwealth of Virginia,

did not have any 2011 emissions from the MAR category.3

- 4

3. 3 .2 Nonroad Model Sources

Nonroad model sources include a varied collection of equipment using power from engines

for purposes other than locomotion on highways. Nonroad emissions result from the use of

fuel in this diverse collection, which includ es vehicles and equipment s in the following

categories:

• Recreational vehicles, such as all

- terrain vehicles and off

- road motorcycles;

• Logging equipment, such as chain saws;

• Agricultural equipment, such as tractors;

• Construction equipment, such as graders and backhoes;

• Industrial equipment, such as fork lifts and sweepers;

• Residential and commercial lawn and garden equipment, such as leaf and snow blowers.

3. 3

. 2.1 Emission Estimation Approach

Except for equipment in the MAR category , the inventory for nonroad mobile sources w as developed using the most current version of EPA’s NONROAD model as embedded in the

National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM). The NONROAD mode l includes more than 80

basic and 260 specific types of nonroad equipment and further stratifies equipment types by

horsepower rating. Fuel types include gasoline, diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG), and

liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

EPA’s NMIM2008 so ftware (version NMIM20090504), the revised NMIM County Database

( NCD20130531_nei2011v1 ), and the NONROAD2008a model (July 2009 version) were

used t o estimate the 20 11 annual and average ozone season day emissions for VOC, NO X , CO, SO 2 , PM 2.5

- Pri , and NH 3 f or the purpose s of creating the base year 20 11 emissions

inventory

. The NONROAD200 8a model estimates emissions for each specific type of

nonroad equipment by multiplying the following input data estimates:

• Equipment population for the base year, distrib uted by age, power, fuel type, and

application;

• Average load factor expressed as average fraction of available power;

• Available power in horsepower;

• Activity in hours of use per year; and

• Emission factor s reflecting deterioration and/or new standar ds.

The emissions are then temporally and geographically allocated using appropriate allocation

factors.

S everal input files provide necessary information to the model . These input files include

information such as : emission factors, base year equipment population, activity, load factor s

, average lifetime, scrappage function, growth estimates, and geographic and temporal

allocation s . Default values are provided for all input files. The user may replace the default

data files when better informat ion becomes available, either from EPA for national defaults

or from local sources for locality

- specific data.3 -5

The NMIM2008 software was run for all twelve months in 2011 to develop average ozone

season day and annual emissions for the cities and counties in the Washington, DC- MD

- VA

2008 ozone NAAQS nonattainment area. All emissions sources in the software (except for

ground support equipment in Virginia) were included in the run. Ground support equipment

emissions were provided by the VDEQ staff separately. Average ozone season day emissions

were estimated by dividing total emissions in July by the total number of days (31) in July.

Emissions for all twelve months in 2011 were added together to develop annual emissions.

Model inputs (temperature, fuel, and other parameters) used in this analysis were included in

the NMIM county database mentioned above and were the same as the inputs used in

developing the 2011 NEI for the NMIM model sources. The above NMIM county database

was acquired from EPA’s website ( fi le name ‘2011nei_supdata_nonroad.zip’ under

“Supporting data and summaries”) for the NEI 2011(ver 1) effort

. 1 The 2011 NEI Technical

Support Document (ver 1) available on the above website provides details of the

development of various inputs included in the database.

3.3.2.2 Summary of Emission Results

Table 3 -3 lists emissions for different counties and cities in the Washington, DC- VA -MD

ozone nonattainment region. Detailed NMIM2008 software input and output files are being

provided separately in electronic format as Appendix C of this document.

Table 3 -3

2011 Base Year SIP Nonroad Model Source Emission Inventories

Washington, DC- MD -VA 2008 Ozone NAAQS Nonattainment Area

Jurisdicti on VOC

(TPD) NO X

(TPD) CO

(TPD) VOC

(TPY) NO X

(TPY) CO

(TPY) PM 2.5 - Pri

(TPY) SO 2

(TPY) NH 3

(TPY)

District of Columbia 5.28 7.52 46.75 1,250.21 2,364.45 11,995.60 203.88 6.21 2.85

Calvert County 2.56 1.51 15.48 494.70 373.37 3,249.72 30.13 0.95 0.50

Charles County 4.22 2.64 24.71 868.47 696.76 5,408.72 62.62 1.81 0.92

Frederick County 4.27 3.57 49.91 1,126.46 1,061.06 12,727.80 115.73 3.03 1.49

Montgomery County 14.37 8.87 184.54 3,858.80 2,733.86 46,762.90 333.43 8.41 4.48

Prince George’s County 9.18 7.78 112.16 2,432.58 2,442.06 28,757.50 257.83 7.04 3.53

Maryland Total 34.59 24.37 386.79 8,781.01 7,307.11 96,906.64 799.74 21.23 10.92

Arlington County 1.58 3.41 19.41 437.65 1,084.95 5,081.42 98.33 2.84 1.32

Fairfax County 13.85 9.34 189.70 3,798.92 2,903.94 48,445.20 345.98 8.87 4.72

Fairfax City 0.42 0.16 6.74 110.12 49.70 1,666.93 7.45 0.18 0.11

Falls Church City 0.25 0.09 3.81 70.06 26.32 970.22 4.48 0.10 0.06

Loudoun County 6.05 6.88 84.38 1,705.36 2,104.36 21,346.70 230.58 5.92 2.96

Prince William County 4.81 4.52 54.81 1,259.37 1,390.18 13,726.70 149.29 3.91 1.96

Manassas City 0.23 0.17 3.58 66.83 60.63 1,018.76 4.84 0.19 0.08

Manassas Park City 0.23 0.08 3.56 65.52 25.71 912.24 4.29 0.10 0.06

Alexandria City 1.10 0.39 15.86 298.73 126.84 4 ,08 8

. 91 16.66 0.45 0.26

Virginia Total 28.53 25.03 381.85 7,812.56 7,772.63 97,257.07 861.89 22.57 11.53

Region Total 68.40 56.92 815.39 17,843.77 17,444.19 206,159.31 1,865.52 50.01 25.31

1 EPA NEI 2011 Website - http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/2011inventory.html#inventorydoc4

- 1

4.0 On r oad Mobile Sources

4.1 Introduction

The MO VES2010a model was used for developing the onroad mobile annual and average

ozone season day base year 2011 emissions for the Washington, DC

- MD

- VA 2008 ozone

NAAQS nonattainment area

. A ppendix D1 provides more detailed documentation on

data sources and methodologies used to develop different input s . M OVES2010a i nput

files, external input files, and output files are provided separately in electronic format as

Appendix D2.

Metropolitan Wa shington Air Quality Committee (MWAQC) staff developed

meteorology inputs and coordinated with the state air agencies to acquire fuel and

inspection and maintenance program inputs for the MOVES2010a model. MWAQC staff

provided these inputs to t he National Capitol Region Transportation Planning Board

(TPB) staff who developed other transportation related inputs for the model. TPB staff

developed emissions usi ng the above model. MWAQC staff reviewed and approved these

emissions

, incorporating them into the ba se year 2011 inventor ie s.

This on

- road mobile emissions analysis process is very similar to the process used during

the development of previous base year inventories.

4.2 Summary of On r oad Mobile Source Emissions

The table below summarizes the typical ozone season day emissions for VOC, NO X , and

CO and annual emissions for VOC, NO X , CO, PM 2.5

- Pri, SO 2 , and NH 3 in the

Washington, DC

- MD

- VA 2008 ozone NAAQS nonattainment area

.4

- 2 Table 4

- 1

2011 Base Year SIP Onroad Source Emission Inventories

Washington, DC

- MD

- VA 2008 Ozone NAAQS Nonattainment Area

Washington, DC

- MD

- VA 2008 Ozone NAAQS Nonattainment Area 1 Pollutant

Calvert County Charles County Frederick County Montgomery County Prince George's County Arlington County Fairfax County Loudoun County Prince William County Alexandria

City District Of Columbia

MD Total

VA Total

NAA Total

Tons per ozone season

day

VOC 2.06 3.24 6.05 14.42 16.55 2.54 16.48 4.90 7.34 1.85 6.91 42.33 33.10 82.35

NO X 4.02 7.15 18.54 34.19 43.75 4.98 40.92 13.57 18.77 3.79 15.79 107.65 82.04 205.48

CO 18.64 29.31 72.54 153.61 188.00 29.27 184.19 52.94 76.55 18.64 71.18 462.11 361.69 894.98

Tons per year

VOC 709 1,112 2,065 5,085 5,678 922 5,966 1,768 2,629 675 2,374.05 14,647.98 11,959.16 28,981.19

NO X 1,420 2,531 6,603 11,791 15,217 1,679 14,113 4,743 6,629 1,299 5,073.93 37,562.80 28,462.98 71,099.71

CO 7,335 11,387 25,397 58,166 66,022 13,002 81,863 23,816 34,050 8,919 25,889.76 168,307.25 161,649.04 355,846.05

PM 2.5 -

Pri 51 97 256 462 562 63 5 6 1 198 265 5 0 206.09 1,428.37 1,136.99 2,771.45

SO 2 6 10 27 69 73 16 105 30 39 11 33.82 185.77 201.24 420.83

NH 3 26 43 120 288 353 55 342 92 130 33 144.30 829.77 651.15 1,625.23

1 Fairfax County emissions include onroad emissions from Fairfax City and Falls Church City. Prince William County emissions

include emissions from Manassas City and Manassas Park City.

* Small discrepancies may result due to rounding

.5

- 1

5.0 Quality Assurance Procedures

Several quality assurance checks were employed by the Washington DC

- MD

- VA state

air agencies or, given resource constraints, regionally to address the data quality

objectives discussed in Chapter 1.4 related to accuracy, completeness, comparability,

and/or representativeness : reality/peer review checks, sample calculations, sensitivity

analysis, and range checks. Details on each check are provided below.

5.1 Reality Check/Pe er Review Check

I ndependent review was conducted by knowledgeable staff to e nsure that data,

assumptions, and procedures are reasonable . The objective of these checks is to ensure

accuracy, completeness, comparability, and representativeness.

Reasonable ness of methods, assump tions, and emissions estimates was a ssessed by 1)

comparing data sources used in the final inventory to those used for the 2011 NEI; 2)

relying on reviewer expertise; and 3) compari ng emissions estimates to other inventory

efforts, p articularly the 2002 base year inventory , 2007 attainment year inventory, and the

2011 N EI (Version 1)

.

5.2 Sample Calculations

Sample calculations provide verification of values by replicating calculations. The

benefit is to ensure that calculations a re done correctly. The objective is accuracy.

Emissions calculations were duplicated to spot check the accuracy of the arithmetic and,

therefore, the resulting emissions estimate s . Priority wa s given to those categories

identified as the largest emissions contributors.

For nonroad and onroad emissions estimates, sample calculations were not used as a

quality assurance mechanism. Preparing sample calculations for these sectors was not

possible since the emissions estimates were generated using EP A

- approved models.

Rather, these data, which were generated by MWAQC and TPB modeling staff, were

checked by comparing the results of similar modeling runs conducted by other agencies

such as state air agencies, state transportation agencies, or MARAMA to ensure the

results included herein were reasonable.

5.3 Sensitivity Analysis

S ensitivity analysis is the s ystematic study of how changes in parameters affect data . The

benefit is to identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on data . All d ata quality

objectives are addressed using these checks.

A sensitivity analysis in the form of source category emissions rankings by pollutant was

performed. The ranking help ed determine where efforts should be concentrated.5

- 2

5.4 Standard Range Checks

S tandard range checks address the data quality objective of comparability. The benefit is

to identify the source categories that have the greatest change in emission levels from

previous emission estimates. All data quality objectives are addressed using t hese checks.

The 2011 base year inventory w as compared to the most recent inventor ies (base year

2002 , attainment year 2007 inventory, and the 2011 NEI Version 1 ). Any discrepancies

(data outliers) w ere verified or corrected.

5.5 Corrective Action Plan

Corrective and follow

- up actions identified during the quality checking process were

noted and referred to the appropriate staff.