CBO 

PAPERS 

UNDERGRADUATE ENROLLMENT 

AND COMPLETION 

AMONG MINORITIES 

February 1992 

o 

CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 

SECOND AND D STREETS, S.W. 

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20515 

PREFACE 

At the request of the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources, this 

paper examines the participation of minority students in postsecondary 

education and presents selected options for increasing their enrollment and 

completion rates. In accordance with the Congressional Budget Office's 

(CBO's) mandate to provide objective and impartial analysis, the paper 

contains no recommendations. 

Jay Noell of CBO's Human Resources and Community Development 

Division prepared the paper under the direction of Nancy Gordon and Bruce 

Vavrichek. The author gratefully acknowledges the contributions of Amy 

Belasco, Roslyn Bruno, Robert Hauser, Robert Kominsky, Harriet Komisar, 

Constance Rhind, Paul Siegel, and Verdon Staines. Tahirih Senne provided 

computer assistance. The manuscript was edited by Roger M. Williams. 

Ronald Moore provided administrative assistance for the project and prepared 

the final layout of the manuscript. Kimberly Guise produced the figures. 

February 1992 

Robert D. Reischauer 

Director 

CONTENTS 

I 

II 

III 

IV 

V 

SUMMARY 

INTRODUCTION 

Trends in the Number of Undergraduates 

Trends in Enrollment Rates Among 18- to 

24-Year Olds 

CHOOSING BETWEEN FOUR-YEAR AND 

TWO-YEAR POSTSECONDARY INSTITUTIONS 

Enrollment Growth at Four-Year and Two-Year 

Institutions 

Enrollment Shares at Two-Year Institutions 

ENROLLING IN PRIVATE CAREER SCHOOLS 

ENTERING AND PERSISTING IN COLEEGE 

Definitions of Entry and Persistence Rates 

Undergraduate Entry Rates 

Undergraduate Persistence Rates 

Comparing Entry and Persistence Rates 

COMPLETING COLLEGE 

Years of College Completed 

Associate and Bachelor's Degrees Earned 

General Findings on College Attainment 

Xl 

1 

2 

6 

11 

12 

14 

17 

21 

22 

24 

30 

33 

35 

35 

38 

40 
VI INCREASING MINORITY PARTICIPATION 

IN POSTSECONDARY INSTITUTIONS 

Provide Assured Access 

Target Student Aid More Tightly 

Increase Student Support Services 

APPENDIXES 

A 

B 

C 

AGE-STANDARDIZED ENROLLMENT RATES 

SUPPLEMENTARY TABLES 

A TECHNICAL NOTE ON ENTRY AND PERSISTENCE 

RATES IN POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION 

vi 

45 

45 

47 

48 

53 

55 

67 
FIGURES 

S-1. College Enrollment as a Percentage of 18- to 

24-Year Olds, by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, 

October 1972 to October 1990 xii 

1. Undergraduate Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity, 

Fall 1976 to Fall 1990 3 

2. Cumulative Percentage Change in Undergraduate 

Enrollment Since 1976, by Minority Status and 

Gender, Fall 1976 to Fall 1990 4 

3. Cumulative Percentage Change in Minority 

Undergraduate Enrollment Since 1976, by 

Race/Ethnicity and Gender, Fall 1976 to Fall 1990 5 

4. College Enrollment as a Percentage of All 

18- to 24-Year Olds and as a Percentage of 

18- to 24-Year-Old High School Graduates, 

by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, October 1972 

to October 1990 8 

5. Percentage Change in Undergraduate Enrollment 

in Four-Year and Two-Year Postsecondary 

Educational Institutions, Fall 1976 to Fall 1990 13 

6. Proportion of Undergraduate Enrollment in 

Two-Year Postsecondary Institutions, by 

Race/Ethnicity and Gender, Fall 1976 and 

Fall 1990 15 

7. Enrollment in Proprietary Institutions 

Among Persons Aged 18 to 34, by Race/ 

Ethnicity and Gender, October 1976, 

1980, 1989, and 1990 19 

8. Basic Categories of Undergraduate Enrollment 23 

9. College Entry Rates into First Two Years of 

College Among 18- to 24-Year Olds, by Race/ 

Ethnicity and Gender, Selected Years from 

October 1972 to October 1990 25 

vii 
10. College Entry Rates into First Four Years of 

College Among 18~ to 24-Year Olds, by Race/ 

Ethnicity and Gender, Selected Years from 

October 1972 to October 1990 27 

11. Proportion of Recent High School Graduates 

Enrolled in College, by Race/Ethnicity and 

Gender, Average for October 1987, 1988, 

1989, and 1990 28 

12. Proportion of Recent High School Graduates 

Enrolled in College Who Chose Four~ Year 

Institutions, by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, 

Average for October 1987, 1988, 1989, and 1990 29 

13. Undergraduate Two-Year Persistence Rates 

Among 18- to 24~Year OIds, by Race/ 

Ethnicity and Gender, Selected Years from 

October 1972 to October 1990 31 

14. Undergraduate Four~Year Persistence Rates 

Among 18- to 24~Year OIds, by Race/ 

Ethnicity and Gender, Selected Years from 

October 1972 to October 1990 34 

15. Proportion of 25- to 29-Y ear Oids 

Completing Two or More Years of College, 

by Race /Ethnicity and Gender, Selected Years 

from October 1972 to October 1990 36 

16. Proportion of 25- to 29-Year Oids Completing 

Four or More Years of College, by Race/ 

Ethnicity and Gender, Selected Years from 

October 1972 to October 1990 37 

17. Percent Change in the Number of Associate 

and Bachelor's Degrees Awarded, by Race/ 

Ethnicity and Gender, 1976-77 to 1988~89 39 

18. Percent Change in Four-Year Enrollment and 

in Bachelor's Degrees Awarded, by Race/ 

Ethnicity and Gender, 1976-77 to 1988-89 42 

19. Percent Change in Two-Year Enrollment and 

in Associate Degrees Awarded, by Race/ 

Ethnicityand Gender, 1976~77 to 1988~89 43 

viii 
TABLES 

B-l. Undergraduate Enrollment in Four-Year and TwoYear Degree-Granting Postsecondary Educational 

Institutions, Fall 1976 and Fall 1990 56 

B-2. Percentage of Persons Aged 18 to 24 Enrolled 

in College, by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, 

October 1972 to October 1990 57 

B-3. Percentage of High School Graduates Aged 

18 to 24 Enrolled in College, by Race/ 

Ethnicity and Gender, October 1972 to 

October 1990 58 

B-4. Enrollment in Proprietary Institutions 

Among Persons Aged 18 to 34, by Race/ 

Ethnicity and Gender, October 1976, 

1980, 1989, and 1990 59 

B-5. College Entry Rates Among 18- to 24-Year OIds, 

by Type of Rate and by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, 

October 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1989, and 1990 60 

B-6: Proportion of Recent High School Graduates 

Aged 16 to 24 Enrolled in Two-Year or FourYear Colleges in the Following Fall, by Race/ 

Ethnicity or Gender, October 1987 to October 1990 61 

B-7. Proportion of Recent High School Graduates 

Aged 16 to 24 Enrolled in College in the Following 

Fall Who Chose Four-Year Colleges, by Race/ 

Ethnicity or Gender, October 1987 to October 1990 62 

B-8. Undergraduate Persistence Rates Among 18-

to 24-Year OIds, by Type of Rate and by 

Race/Ethnicity and Gender, October 1972, 

1976, 1980, 1984, 1989, and 1990 63 

B-9. Proportion of 25- to 29-Year Olds Completing 

Two or Four Years of College, by Race/ 

Ethnicity and Gender, October 1972, 1976, 

1980, 1984, 1989, and 1990 64 

B-lO. Associate and Bachelor's Degrees Awarded, 

by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, 1976-77 

to 1988-89 65 

IX 

SUMMARY 

Minority participation in postsecondary education has been a major issue in 

recent years. Although the number of minority undergraduates increased in 

the last half of the 1980s, the proportion of minorities attending postsecondary 

schools remains substantially below that of whites. (Minorities in this context 

means blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and American Indians.) 

ENROLLMENT TRENDS 

In 1990, the enrollment rate of black youth of traditional college age returned 

to about the level it had reached in 1976 (see Summary Figure). The gap 

between the enrollment rates of black and white youths was greater in 1990 

than in 1976, however, because the rate for whites increased steadily in the 

1980s. The college enrollment rate for Hispanics was stable in the 1980s, but 

at a level below that in 1975. 

A major portion of the growing disparity in the enrollment patterns of 

whites and minorities stems from enrollment increases among white women. 

Gender differences in postsecondary enrollment also exist among minorities, 

where women have generally increased their presence more than men since 

the mid-1970s. Also since then, enrollment among blacks has been higher, on 

average, for women than for men. 

CHOICE OF POSTSECONDARY INSTITUTION 

Limited improvement in access to higher education for minorities is not the 

only concern about their postsecondary participation. For one thing, minority 

students--a disproportionate share of whom have low incomes--may be 

increasingly likely to have to settle for the less costly types of schools. 

Three broad choices among institutions are available to undergraduate 

students: four-year colleges leading to bachelor's degrees; two-year institutions 

leading to associate degrees; and proprietary schools (also known as private 

career schools, which specialize in trade, vocational, and business programs) 

leading to vocational certificates. Four-year institutions and proprietary 

schools generally cost more than their two-year counterparts. The type of 
Summary Figure. 

College Enrollment as a Percentage of 18- to 24-Year OIds, by Race/ 

Ethnicity and Gender, October 1972 to October 1990 

White 

50 

Percent 

40 

...... Male "'* 30 ~ 

-Female 20 

10 

o lYrl. lYI~ lYlb lYI~ l~U l!1tf~ l~ l~b l~H lWO 

50 

40 

30 

.... 

~enders~ ..... --- ~ 

20 

10 

o 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 19a8 l!1!JO 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations based on data from the Bureau of the Census. Current 

Population Report, Series P-20. No. 452. 
school from which students graduate has important consequences for their 

future earnings. Graduates with bachelor's degrees earn the most, followed 

by those with associate degrees and then those with vocational certificates. 

Observers have expressed concern that minority students may 

increasingly have to enroll in two-year schools because they cost the least. 

When examining undergraduate enrollment at four-year and two-year schools, 

however, this report finds that the proportion of whites and minorities 

choosing each type of school has not changed much. The white share 

attending two-year schools increased slightly over the 1976-1990 period, but 

the minority share remained essentially static. 

In contrast, another source of data indicates that minorities have 

increased their share of proprietary school enrollment since the mid-1970s--

from 14 percent to 25 percent between 1976 and 1990, for example. Although 

some observers have applauded proprietary schools for providing training for 

a range of jobs currently in demand, others have questioned both the quality 

of the instruction offered at many of these institutions and the extent to which 

they improve students' employment prospects. 

PERSISTENCE AND COMPLETION 

Yet another concern about minority participation is that many minority youth 

who attend postsecondary schools do not graduate. Some analysts have 

suggested that minority--especially black--enrollment may have increased less 

than expected not because fewer blacks were entering college, but because 

they were less likely to stay there ("persist"). This report finds that both entry 

and persistence rates for college-age whites are higher than those for 

minorities. Among young blacks, entry rates dipped between the mid-1970s 

and late 1980s, and by 1990 they were only slightly above the level reached 

in 1976. Persistence rates have increased among blacks since 1972, however, 

and by 1990 had almost reached the level among whites. College-age 

Hispanic entry rates have remained level since 1980, while persistence rates 

rose and are now similar to those of whites. These findings are based on 

average rates, however; at some schools, persistence rates may have declined. 

Whites and minorities also differ in the proportion who have 

completed at least two or four years of college. In 1990, about 40 percent of 

whites between the ages of 25 and 29 had completed two or more years, 

compared with less than 30 percent of blacks and less than 20 percent of 

Hispanics. In that year, about 25 percent of whites aged 25 to 29 had finished 

four or more years, compared with less than 15 percent of blacks and less 

than 10 percent of Hispanics. 

xiii 
POLICY OPTIONS TO INCREASE 

MINORITY UNDERGRADUATE ENROLLMENT 

Because the participation of minorities in postsecondary education remains 

below that of whites, the Congress may want to consider new policy initiatives 

to increase the entry and persistence rates of minority youth. Three basic 

approaches have been suggested. 

The first would assure students as early as their late elementary years 

that financial assistance would be available for them to enter college if they 

completed high school. Proponents of tuition-guarantee programs point to 

preliminary evidence that demonstration projects have increased enrollment 

among disadvantaged students at relatively low costs. Opponents counter that 

rigorous evaluations of these projects have not been done and that their initial 

success may be due to the exceptional dedication of their creators, which 

might not be duplicated in a national program. 

The second approach would address financial need by targeting federal 

student aid more tightly toward the most economically disadvantaged, who 

tend disproportionately to be members of minority groups. Those in favor of 

this option contend that additional aid would increase college entry among 

disadvantaged youth and ensure them greater choice among different types of 

postsecondary institutions. Those opposed argue that additional support for 

the most economically disadvantaged students is unlikely to be very effective 

in increasing college participation since enrollment rates are already at their 

highest levels ever. 

The third approach would expand the current federal program of 

support services for disadvantaged college students in order to boost college 

persistence. Advocates of expanding this program note that it provides 

postsecondary schools with a range of alternative services--inc1uding tutoring 

and counseling--to meet the unique needs of disadvantaged students. 

Opponents say these programs have not been effectively managed in the past 

and have produced only negligible results in community colleges, which many 

disadvantaged students attend. 

An additional consideration is that all three of these strategies could 

require more federal spending. Under the Budget Enforcement Act, 

additional funding for one program would require offsetting changes to meet 

the caps on discretionary spending. 

xiv 
CHAPTER I 

INTRODUCTION 

Trends in the participation of minorities in postsecondary education have 

received considerable scrutiny in the last several years. Because equal 

opportunity for postsecondary education has been widely supported over the 

past two decades, many observers expected the enrollment patterns of whites 

and minorities to converge. That has not happened, however, and several 

recent studies have tried to identify more precisely how postsecondary 

participation differs between whites and minorities.l 

These studies have allayed concerns in some areas but raised questions 

in others. Among their key findings is that the overall postsecondary 

enrollment rate of black youth of traditional college age (18 to 24 years old) 

changed little between the mid-1970s and mid-1980s. Two factors have been 

cited: the high-school graduation rate among black youth rose, while the 

college enrollment rate of those graduates declined. Research has also 

confirmed that enrollment rates among white youth increased in the 1980s, 

resulting in a growing difference in postsecondary attendance between whites 

and blacks of traditional college age. Much of the increasing disparity stems 

from enrollment growth among white women. Indeed, changes in gender 

differences were greater than changes in racial differences over the past two 

decades. 

After updating information found in recent reports on trends in 

undergraduate enrollment, this paper will turn to several specific issues. The 

first is the fear that minorities may be increasingly likely to enroll in academic 

and vocational institutions of lower quality. Chapter II examines differences 

between whites and minorities in enrollment in four-year and two-year 

postsecondary institutions that grant degrees. Chapter III makes a similar 

comparison with respect to enrollment in proprietary schools (for-profit 

institutions that specialize in trade, business, and vocational programs). 

1. See Sol H. Pelavin and Michael B. Kane, Minority Panicipation in Higher Education, U.S. 

Department of Education, August 1990; Daniel Koretz, Trends in the Postsecondary Enrollment 

of Minorities, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Cal., August 1990; Thomas G. Mortenson 

and Zhijun Wu, High School Graduation and College Pmticipation of Young Adults by Family 

Income Background: 1970 to 1989, American College Testing Program, September 1990; and 

James B. Stedman, Minority Emvllment Trends in Higher Education, CRS Report for Congress, 

91-460 EPW, May 31, 1991. 
A second issue concerns suggestions by some analysts that minority 

(especially black) enrollment may have grown less than expected--not because 

fewer blacks were entering college but because they were increasingly less 

likely to stay in college ("persist") and graduate once they entered. Chapter 

IV considers that issue, developing postsecondary entry and persistence rates 

in order to compare trends among minorities and whites. 

Because relatively fewer minorities than whites enroll in regular 

postsecondary institutions, one would also expect the proportion of minorities 

who ever earn a degree to be lower than that of whites. Chapter V 

documents those differences for two-year (associate) and four-year 

(bachelor's) degrees. Finally, Chapter VI explores some possible 

Congressional strategies for addressing the continuing disparities between 

white and minority enrollment. 

TRENDS IN THE NUMBER OF UNDERGRADUATES 

Between 1976 and 1990, the number of minority undergraduates grew faster 

than total enrollment--but with blacks the only minority group whose 

percentage increase did not exceed that of whites.2 Gender differences were 

also important, with female enrollment increasing more than male among all 

examined racial/ethnic groups. 

Overall, undergraduate enrollment in four-year and two-year 

postsecondary institutions increased 25 percent between fall 1976 and fall 

1990, rising from about 9.3 million to 11.6 million (see Figure 1 and Appendix 

Table B-1). Minority undergraduate enrollment--consisting of black, Hispanic, 

Asian/Pacific Islander, and American Indian/Alaskan Native students--

increased 57 percent, about three times the growth in white enrollment. As 

a result, the white proportion of undergraduate students declined from 83 

percent to 79 percent. 

Undergraduate enrollment among all minority groups except blacks 

increased faster than enrollment by whites. Black undergraduate enrollment 

fluctuated between 1976 and 1990, but increased 19 percent by the end of the 

period. Asian/Pacific Islanders had the largest growth in enrollment (almost 

190 percent), followed by Hispanics (almost 100 percent) and American 

Indian/Alaskan Natives (more than 35 percent). 

2. Data on undergraduate enrollment come from the Department of Education's periodic sUlVeys 

of postsecondary institutions. Since 1987, these sUlVeys have been part of what is known as the 

Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System; before that, they were part of the Higher 

Education General Information SUlVeys. 

2 
Figure 1. 

Undergraduate Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity, Fall 1976 to Fall 1990 

Total Enrollment 

12 ,--------------------------------------------------------------, 

10 

8 

6 

2 

o 

_White ffilIl Minority 

Minority Enrollment 

Thousands 1200 ~~~=-----------------------------------------------------__, 

1000 

800 

600 

400 

200 

o 

_Black 

100 

80 

60 

40 

20 

o 

_Black 

IlliilBillill Hispanic _Asian EJJ Am. Indian 

Distribution of Minority Enrollment 

Ia Hispanic _Asian k'",'·'",,1 Am. Indian 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations based on data from the Department of Education, National 

Center for Education Statistics. 

NOTE: See Appendix B, Table B-1 for data for 1976 and 1990. 

3 
As a result of the different growth rates, the composition of minority 

enrollment shifted over the 1976-1990 period. Black enrollment fell from 

more than 60 percent of minority enrollment to less than 50 percent. The 

shares of Hispanic and Asian enrollment grew, and the share of American 

Indians declined slightly. 

Female undergraduate enrollment increased faster than male in every 

group. Among whites, it increased more than 35 percent, while male 

enrollment increased less than 5 percent (see Figures 2 and 3). Among 

minorities, a similar difference between the two sexes developed, with female 

enrollment up more than 70 percent and male enrollment up 40 percent. 

Figure 2. 

Cumulative Percentage Change in Undergraduate Enrollment Since 1976, 

by Minority Status and Gender, Fall 1976 to Fall 1990 

White Minority 

250 Percent 250 Percent 

150 150~----------------------~ 

100 ~r-----------------------~ 

SOr------------------=~--~ 

Fem~ 

o ~ Male 

-50 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations based on data from the Department of Education, National 

Center for Education Statistics. 

NOTE: See Appendix B, Table B-1 for data for 1976 and 1990. 

4 
Figure 3. 

Cumulative Percentage Change in Minority Undergraduate Enrollment 

Since 1976, by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, Fa111976 to Fa111990 

Black Hispanic 

250 Peroont 250 Percent 

200 200 --------------------------1 

ISO ISO 1-: ----------------1 

100 1001----------------_.>""-----_1 

so 501----------~~---~~-_I 

~~ Male 

-so 197. 1978 1980 1982 1984 1980 1988 1990 -so 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1980 1988 1990 

Asian American Indian 

2S0 r-Pe",r.",cc""nC"-t ---------------, 250 Percent 

2001----------------7''-1 200 

ISO '--------------T'---,~-_I I 

I ISO 

100 r---------#"-------_I 100 

SOr-------~~------------_I 

Female __ 

---.... ---------Male -- -50 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 - 50 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1980 1988 1990 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations based on data from the Department of Education, National 

Center for Education Statistics. 

NOTE: See Appendix B, Table B-1 for data for 1976 and 1990. 

5 
Although the increased enrollment of minorities is consistent with 

efforts to increase their opportunities for postsecondary education, it does not 

take into account general population shifts. The large enrollment increases 

experienced by Asians and Hispanics, in particular, probably result both from 

population increases and the small proportion of them enrolled at the 

beginning of the period. To take changes in population into account, 

enrollment rates--that is, enrollment relative to population size--are examined 

in the next section. 

TRENDS IN ENROLLMENT RATES 

AMONG 18- TO 24-YEAR OLDS 

Trends in postsecondary enrollment rates provide at least a partial context for 

interpreting the changes described above in undergraduate counts during the 

1970s and 1980s.3 While those counts include students of all ages, trends in 

enrollment rates as analyzed here are generally based on the population of 

traditional college-going age. Although nontraditional undergraduates 

(meaning those over 24) increasingly enroll in postsecondary institutions, most 

students still fall between the ages of 18 and 24, probably because that group 

forgoes less income when not working.4 

Between 1972 and 1990, average college enrollment as a proportion of 

the 18- to 24-year-old population was highest among whites at 28 percent, 

followed by blacks at 21 percent and Hispanics at 17 percent. The white 

enrollment rate increased steadily during the 1980s, reaching 33 percent in 

1990.5 The rate for blacks fluctuated more than for whites, but also reached 

3. These enrollment rates come from the Current Population Report, Series P-20, number 452, and 

from unpublished tabulations of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) prepared by 

the Bureau of the Census. These Census Bureau data for whites and blacks include Hispanics, 

who can be of any race but are predominantly white. When tabulations prepared by the 

Congressional Budget Office using data from the CPS are presented below, the figures are for 

non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Hispanics. Because of limited sample size, only 

whites, blacks, and Hispanics can be separately analyzed, and only whites and blacks are 

separately reported by gender. 

4. Although the CPS collects enrollment data on people through age 34, relatively few individuals 

in the survey over the age of 24 are COllege students. Because of small sample Sizes, minority 

enrollment cannot be accurately estimated by race/ethnicity and gender for students over 24. 

5. Change in college enrollment rates among 18- to 24-year olds can occur for two reasons. One 

is that the age-specific rates--the rate for each year of age between 18 and 24--change over time. 

The second is that the age mix of 18- to 24-year olds changes. In the latter case, although the 

age-specific rates may be stable, having more 24-year olds and fewer 18-year oids would over 

time reduce the overall rate. That source of change does not seem to be a major factor during 

the period investigated; but see Appendix A for more details. 

6 
its highest level of 25 percent in 1990. The enrollment rate for Hispanics 

varied little during that period; in 1990, it stood at 16 percent--Iower than for 

blacks and whites of similar age. 

Gender differences also appear in college enrollment rates over the 

1972-1990 period. The percentage of 18- to 24-year-old white women enrolled 

in college increased significantly and by 1990 was essentially the same as that 

of white men of similar age (see Figure 4). Among 18- to 24-year-old white 

men, the proportion enrolled started relatively high in 1972 (the military draft 

for the Vietnam War ended in 1973), dipped to a low point in 1979, then rose 

to its highest level in 1990. 

Among 18- to 24-year-old blacks, men were relatively more likely than 

women to attend college in the early 1970s but slightly less likely during the 

1980s; in 1990, however, black men were again enrolled in college at a slightly 

higher rate. College enrollment by black men was relatively stable over the 

1972-1989 period, but it increased sharply in 1990. Among black women, 

college enrollment as a proportion of the population grew in the early 1970s 

and again in the late 1980s. By 1990, their enrollment rate stood at 25 

percent, notably above their average for the period. 

One can also calculate enrollment relative to the number of high 

school graduates rather than to population size. The former measure has 

often been used because high school graduates represent the population 

traditionally considered eligible for college. But some observers think that 

more postsecondary schools now enroll nongraduates considered to have the 

ability to benefit from postsecondary instruction. Thus high school graduates 

may be increasingly less representative of the pool of college applicants. 

Standards for high school graduation can also change over time, making 

college enrollment relative to the number of high school graduates less 

reliable than a measure based on the entire population.6 

Although the average college enrollment rate is higher among high 

school graduates than among the entire population, similar patterns emerge 

when only those graduates are considered. For example, the college 

enrollment rate of 18- to 24-year-old black men who were high school 

graduates declined after reaching 35 percent in 1976; but that rate was 

relatively stable during the 1980s and rose to 34 percent in 1990. The college 

enrollment rate of young black women who were high school graduates also 

6. Achievement tests indicate, however, that proficiency levels have not declined overall and have 

increased among blacks and Hispanics over the period from the early 1970s to 1990. See U.S. 

Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Trends in Academic Progress, 

November 1991. 

7 
Figure 4. 

College Enrollment as a Percentage of All 18- to 24-Year Olds and as a 

Percentage of 18- to 24- Year-Old High School Graduates, by Race/ 

Ethnicity and Gender, October 1972 to October 1990 

As a Percentage 

of Population 

40\-----------------1 

WI_-~==~---------___1 

10\-----------------1 

so Percent 

40 \-----------------1 

~1_-------------___1 

101--"-"-""""'---------------1 

o 1m 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1 

White j,O Perccnt 

As a Percentage of 

High School Graduates 

40 i--:--:-;--:------------=F=t,...., 

Female 

201_-----------------___1 

10\-------------------1 

Black so Percent 

40 \---------------------1 

10 \---------------------1 

o 1972 191,f~·j916 1918 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 

Hispanic ...... ~~~-------------------. 

40 40~-------------------~ 

30 

~~ .... ..... - ,.. 

----- Both Genders 

20 201_----------------~ 

10 10 \---------------------1 

'--~ , , , , L ____ ............... L. 

o 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 o 197 19'1".'1976 1978 19i10 19i12 1984 1986 1988 1990 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations based on data from the Bureau of the Census, Current 

Population Report, Series P-20, No. 452. 

NOTE: See Appendix B, Tables B-2 and B-3 for data. 

8 
declined over that period, but started increasing in the late 1980s, reaching 32 

percent in 1990.7 

College enrollment rates of Hispanics were also relatively stable after 

1979 both among 18- to 24-year olds and among those who were high school 

graduates. As a proportion of the population of 18- to 24-year olds, Hispanic 

enrollment appears to have declined slightly in the late 1980s. As a 

proportion of similarly aged high school graduates, Hispanic enrollment was 

highest in the mid-1970s, but since 1979 has varied only slightly. 

The stability of enrollment rates from the mid-1970s to 1990 suggests 

that opportunities for minorities to attend postsecondary institutions have 

changed little over this period. In other words, the increasing number of 

undergraduates from each minority group (except for black males) primarily 

reflects changes in the relative sizes of population groups. The steady 

increase in enrollment rates of white women, however, has produced greater 

overall differences between whites and minorities in enrollment patterns over 

much of this period. 

7. Some analysts have suggested that changes in minority enlistments in the militaI)' may have 

affected minority enrollment in postsecondaI)' education. Several studies have examined this 

issue, including Koretz, Trends in the Postsecondary Enrollment of Minorities. The conclusion 

the studies reach is that, although changes in militaI)' enlistment among blacks have been 

relatively large in some ways, the number of youth involved has been relatively small. As a 

result, the impact on trends in enrollment counts and rates has been minor over the past decade. 

For example, the proportion of black high school graduates between the ages of 18 and 24 who 

were in the militaI)' between 1976 and 1988 ranged from a low of 6.2 percent in 1976 to a high 

of 7.6 percent in 1979 and 1980. If the proportion had remained at the 1976 level, the number 

who would not have gone into the militaI)'--and hence would have been available for collegewould not have reached 40,000 and would have been 22,000 or less in all but three years. These 

numbers constitute a small fraction of the 800,000 to 1 million black undergraduates in college 

each year over this period. 

9 

CHAPTER II 

CHOOSING BETWEEN FOUR-YEAR AND 

TWO-YEAR POSTSECONDARY INSTITUTIONS 

The policy of equal educational opportunity is designed to promote the goals 

of both access and choice in postsecondary education. Access refers to the 

opportunity to attend a postsecondary institution; choice, to the opportunity 

to select among different institutions. 1 While the goal of access may be more 

important, choice of institution ensures that students can select a school that 

best serves their needs. 

Although many ways exist to categorize postsecondary institutions, basic 

divisions exist between nonprofit and for-profit, and, within the nonprofit 

sector, between four-year and two-year. Although some observers would 

prefer that all undergraduates have access to four-year colleges--the 

traditional institutions of higher education--a range of postsecondary schools 

has arisen to meet the increasingly diverse needs of postsecondary education. 

Among them, two-year institutions--especially public community colleges--are 

now widely seen as the basic institutions of access to postsecondary education. 

From that perspective, institutions of choice include both four-year 

academic institutions and proprietary schools. The former can be either 

public or private, ranging from virtually open-admission institutions to highly 

selective colleges and universities. Proprietary schools, which are also called 

private career schools, range from small academies to correspondence schools. 

This chapter examines how attendance at four-year and two-year 

postsecondary institutions has changed over time; the next chapter looks at 

trends in enrollment in private career schools. Since four-year institutions and 

private career schools typically cost more to attend than their two-year 

counterparts, most of which are public, concern exists that minority students, 

especially blacks, will not be able to choose to enroll in the more expensive 

types. 

Student aid based on financial need is designed to make both access 

and choice possible. When a student chooses a more expensive school, 

however, aid is often insufficient to cover the costs of attendance beyond the 

I. A third objective of equal educational opportunity is persistence. This objective can be thought 

of as continued access to college at higher grade levels, namely, at the sophomore level and 

beyond. College persistence is considered more fully in Chapter IV. 
amount the student and her or his parents are judged able to pay according 

to formulas for allocating financial aid. As a result, attendance at more 

expensive institutions often means that parents and students must bear 

additional costs. 

Some students begin at one type of school and graduate from another. 

But the type of school first chosen probably affects the type of school from 

which a final degree is awarded, and that degree can have important 

consequences for lifetime earnings. Census Bureau data show that, in 1987, 

workers with a bachelor's degree had average monthly earnings of $1,829; 

those with an associate degree, earnings of $1,458; and those with a vocational 

certificate, earnings of $1,088. 

ENROLLMENT GROWTH AT FOUR-YEAR AND 

TWO-YEAR INSTITUTIONS 

Undergraduate enrollment increased 20 percent in four-year institutions and 

33 percent in two-year institutions between fall 1976 and fall 1990 (see 

Figure 5). In the former, undergraduate enrollment rose from 5.4 million in 

1976 to 6.5 million in 1990; in the latter, from 3.8 million in 1976 to 5.1 

million in 1990. (Also see Appendix Table B-t) 

In both types of institutions, minority undergraduate enrollment 

increased more than twice as fast as white enrollment.2 Among four-year 

institutions, enrollment of whites grew by 14 percent, and enrollment among 

minorities--including blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and American Indians--

increased by 57 percent. In two-year institutions, enrollment of whites 

increased 27 percent and that of minorities 57 percent. 

Enrollment increases varied among minority groups but were similar 

at four-year and two-year institutions. At four-year schools, for example, 

black enrollment increased by 20 percent, Hispanic by 101 percent, Asian by 

203 percent, and American Indian by 41 percent. Again, the large increases 

among Hispanics and Asians probably reflect both popUlation growth and the 

small number enrolled at the beginning of the period. 

2. Data prior to 1987 come from the Department of Education's Higher Education General 

Information Survey (HEGIS), the predecessor to the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data 

System (IPEDS). Both survey systems collect administrative data from postsecondary institutions 

on enrollment, finances, faculty, and other matters. The two-year and four-year schools covered 

by HEGIS and now IPEDS include a few proprietary institutions that offer accredited programs 

leading to academic degrees. 

12 
Figure 5. 

Percentage Change in Undergraduate Enrollment in Four-Year and 

Two-Year Postsecondary Educational Institutions, Fa111976 to Fall 1990 

All Undergraduates 

Percent 2S0 

203 

200 

ISO 

100 

SO 

0 

-SO 

Total White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Am. Indian/ 

Islander Alaskan Native 

Female Undergraduates 

Percent 2S0 

200 

ISO 

100 

SO 

0 

-SO 

Total White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Am. Indian! 

Islander Alaskan Native 

Male Undergraduates 

250 

200 194 

ISO 

100 

SO 

6 11 1 6 7 

0 

-3 

-50 

Total White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Am. Indian! 

Islander Alaskan Native 

• Four-Year Two-Year 

Institutions Institutions 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations based on unpublished data from the U.S. Department of 

Education, National Center for Education Statistics. 

NOTE: See Appendix B, Table B-1 for data. 

13 
Female enrollment grew faster than male enrollment in both four-year 

and two-year schools--overall and in every racial/ethnic group. Among whites, 

female enrollment increased significantly across the board, while male 

enrollment increased marginally at both four- and two-year institutions. 

Among blacks, male enrollment increased less than 10 percent at four-year 

schools and actually declined at two-year institutions. Thus the large increase 

in the number of male minority undergraduates was due mostly to gains in the 

numbers of Hispanic and Asian students. 

ENROLLMENT SHARES AT TWO-YEAR INSTITUTIONS 

These enrollment trends suggest that, relative to white students, minority 

students are not being increasingly restricted in their choice between four-year 

schools and two-year ones. But one can also address this issue more directly. 

Overall, the proportion of students attending two-year schools 

increased from 41 percent to 44 percent between fall 1976 and fall 1990. The 

increase was due mostly to whites, for whom the proportion enrolled at twoyear schools increased from 40 percent to 42 percent. The proportions of 

black and Hispanic students attending two-year institutions were roughly 

stable (see Figure 6). Among Asians, a smaller proportion attended two-year 

schools in 1990 than in 1976. 

Gender differences are also a factor in the slight rise in the share of 

students attending two-year institutions. While the proportion of men 

enrolled in two-year schools increased only slightly between 1976 and 1990, 

the proportion of women doing so grew from 42 percent to 46 percent; in fact, 

the proportion of women enrolled increased among all racialj ethnic groups 

save Asians and American Indians. 

This analysis, then, finds only small changes in student choice between 

two- and four-year institutions between the late 1970s and 1990. While 

minority students remain more likely than whites to enroll in two-year 

institutions, during that period white students became more likely, and 

minority students less likely, to enroll in two-year schools. A significant 

increase occurred in the fraction of female students attending two-year 

schools; but it included both white and minority women, and it happened in 

the context of the significant overall increases in female enrollment noted 

above. 

14 
Figure 6. 

Proportion of Undergraduate Enrollment in Two-Year Postsecondary 

Institutions, by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, Fa111976 and Fa111990 

All Undergraduates 

70 Percent 

60 

50 

40 

30 

20 

10 

0 Total White Black Hispanic AsianlPacific Am. Indian! 

Islander Alaskan Native 

Female Undergraduates 

70 Percent 

60 

50 

40 

30 

20 

10 

0 Total White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Am. Indianl 

Islander Alaskan Native 

Male Undergraduates 

70 Percent 

60 

50 

40 

30 

20 

10 

0 Total White Black Hispanic AsianlPacific Am. Indian! 

Islander Alaskan Native 

• 1976 1990 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget OffICe tabulations based on unpublished data from the U.S. Department of 

Education, National Center for Education Statistics. 

NOTE: See Appendix B, Table B-1 for data. 

15 

CHAPTER III 

ENROLLING IN PRIVATE CAREER SCHOOLS 

In recent years, interest in proprietary schools has increased along with 

anecdotal evidence of their increasing minority enrollment. Some observers 

have praised these schools as providers of a wide range of job skills now in 

demand in our society. Others, however, have questioned both the quality of 

the instruction offered at many of these institutions and the extent to which 

they help students find jobs. 

Considerable uncertainty exists about trends in proprietary school 

enrollment and about its composition in terms of racial/ethnic and gender 

groups. The Department of Education, for example, has only recently begun 

to collect data regularly on the matter. This study uses data from the annual 

October CUrrent Population Survey (CPS) to examine trends in private career 

school enrollment. 

The CPS has been collecting data on enrollment in business, 

vocational, technical, and correspondence courses since 1973. To focus on 

students who are most likely to be in trade or occupational programs--rather 

than simply taking courses for personal enrichment or to supplement other 

training--this analysis does not count as enrolled those students who are also 

attending regular colleges or have already graduated.l This analysis includes 

people between the ages of 18 and 34 because a disproportionate share of 

students in proprietary schools are over 24. Enrollment is analyzed in 1976, 

1980, 1989, and 1990 because survey items were similar in those years; they 

also span the period when enrollment in private career schools is thought by 

some observers to have grown the most. Finally, because the information 

presented here relates to enrollment in the fall of those years, it represents 

only part of the total enrollment at these schools during the entire year. 

Although this divergence is evident for all types of postsecondary schools, it 

may be especially significant for private career schools because they offer 

I. Such persons are unlikely to be enrolled in trade or occupational programs at private career 

schools, either because they already have a collegiate degree or because enrollment in private 

career schools generally requires a full-time commitment. As private career schools note as a 

selling point, their students attend on a more intensive, 40-hour-a-week basis, allowing them to 

complete their programs more quickly than in regular postsecondary institutions. Although data 

on full-time or part-time enrollment status while taking such courses would be helpful in 

estimating total enrollment in trade or vocational programs, such data are not available. 
more and shorter courses over the year. Trends in enrollment in these 

schools, however, should be only slightly affected by this feature of the data. 

Several patterns are evident in private career school enrollment. First 

and somewhat surprising, fall attendance has been roughly stable at just over 

1 million students since 1976, as shown in Figure 7 (also see Appendix 

Table B"4).2 This finding does not support the contention of some analysts 

that proprietary school enrollment must have risen because of the large 

increase in the share of federal student aid··both grants and loans--going to 

students at those schools. For example, students at private career schools got 

about 14 percent of Pell Grant funds in academic year 1981"82; the share 

peaked at 27 percent in 1987·88 before dropping to 23 percent in 1989-90. 

Similarly, proprietary school students received about 6 percent of Stafford 

Loans (then called Guaranteed Student Loans) in fiscal year 1981; the share 

increased to 35 percent in 1987 before dropping to 27 percent in 1989. 

Second, the minority proportion of the enrollment in private career 

schools is increasing, rising from 14 percent to 25 percent between fall 1976 

and fall 1990, for example. Although these figures must be viewed cautiously 

because the sample sizes from the CPS are small, the trend is consistent with 

the increases in minority enrollment also found in nonprofit four-year and 

two-year institutions.3 

Third, unlike at other types of institutions, the female proportion of 

private career enrollment since 1976 has remained relatively constant at just 

under 50 percent. 

2. Alternative estimates of proprietal)' school enrollment include those of John B. Lee, who has 

estimated enrollment in regular programs at 1.4 million in 1987 and in home study-or 

correspondence courses--at approximately 1.5 million. In contrast, the Department of Education 

estimated proprietal)' school enrollment in fall 1986 at about 600,000, and CBO's tabulation of 

data from the new 1990 National Postsecondal)' Student Aid Study places enrollment for the 

entire 1989-90 academic year at about 1.4 miJIion, a figure that includes home study or 

correspondence course enrollment at institutions that also offer regular programs. See John B. 

Lee and Jamie P. Merisotis, Propn'etaty Schools, ASHE-ERIC Education Report 5, 1990; 

Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Undergraduate Financing of 

Postsecondary Education: A Report of the 1987 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, 1988; 

and Congressional Budget Office tabulations of data from the Department of Education, 

National Center for Education Statistics, National Postsecondaty Student Aid Study: 1989-90. 

3. The two trends cannot be directly compared, however, because of the differences in the 

procedures used to collect the data. The Integrated Postsecondal)' Education Data System is 

an institutional survey, and the Current Population Survey is a household survey. 

18 
Figure 7. 

Enrollment in Proprietary Institutions Among Persons Aged 18 to 34, by 

Race/Ethnicity and Gender, October 1976, 1980, 1989, and 1990 

Race/Ethnicity 

Thousands 1~ .--------------------------------------------------------, 

1000 

800 

600 

400 

o 

IIiIillIEWhite 

Thousands 

1200 

1000 

800 

600 

400 

200 

0 

Black Other 

Gender 

_Female Male 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of data from the October Current Population Survey for the 

years 1976,1980,1989, and 1990. Tabulation reflects positive responses to the question, "Is ... taking 

any business, vocational, technical or correspondence courses other than on the job training?"; but 

those who have graduated from college or who are currently enrolled in college have been excluded. 

NOTE: See text for a description of the data and method used in this calculation. See Appendix B, Table 

B-4 for a listing of the data used in this figure. 

19 
Taken together, these findings corroborate reports that the share of 

minority enrollment in private career schools is increasing. The findings do 

not, however, support the contention that total enrollment in these schools 

must have increased because the share of federal aid going to their students 

has grown. Rather, the trends presented here indicate that proprietary school 

enrollment has been stable for the last 15 years or so, although increasingly 

composed of minorities. This pattern suggests that private career schools have 

maintained their enrollment--and according to some, been able to raise their 

tuition and maximize their profits--by using federal aid to support their 

students and by more aggressively recruiting disadvantaged students, who 

include a high proportion of minorities. 

The evidence reviewed in this chapter, therefore, supports the 

contention that more minority students have been choosing to enroll in 

proprietary schools. Questions remain about the quality of the training 

received, but they lie beyond the scope of this analysis. Among students who 

have received Stafford student loans, those who attended proprietary schools 

have been found to default at significantly higher rates than those who 

attended other types of institutions--even after taking into account a wide 

range of personal and family characteristics of the borrowers.4 This finding, 

among others, suggests a continuing need for research on the effectiveness of 

proprietary schools in improving their students' economic prospects. 

4. For more details, see Congressional Budget Office, The Experience of the Stafford Loan 

Program and Options for Change (December 1991). 

20 
CHAPTER IV 

ENTERING AND PERSISTING IN COLLEGE 

Many evaluations of equal educational opportunity have been conducted by 

examining postsecondary enrollment. The goal of access, for example, has 

been assessed in terms of the numbers or proportions of different types of 

students enrolled in postsecondary institutions (see Chapter I for a review of 

white and minority enrollment trends). The goal of choice has been 

examined, as in Chapters I and II, in terms of the numbers or proportions 

enrolled in various kinds of schools. 

A shortcoming of many of these evaluations is that they ignore the 

aforementioned third goal of equal educational opportunity: persistence in 

postsecondary education. Although it can be interpreted as meaning that 

access should be available to students over a period of years, separate 

emphasis on persistence reinforces the idea that college entrance does not end 

concern about equal opportunity. In the case of minorities, it is especially 

important to distinguish access (and choice) from persistence. Some analysts 

have suggested that minority enrollment falls below that of whites not because 

minorities don't enter postsecondary institutions, but because they don't 

persist; that is, they drop out. 

One way to examine access and persistence together is to divide 

enrollment into its two components, entrants and persisters. All 

postsecondary students can be classified in these two categories. Entrants are 

those who were not enrolled last year but are enrolled this year; persisters are 

those who were enrolled last year as well as this year. (See Appendix C for 

a more detailed breakdown of postsecondary enrollment.) 

This division is not new to people concerned with managing college 

enrollment, who frequently refer to their policies to "recruit and retain" 

students. It does, however, suggest a new way to analyze enrollment with 

respect to equal educational opportunity. In particular, splitting enrollment 

into entrants and persisters permits analyzing minority postsecondary 

participation in a more precise way. It permits a more accurate description 

of differences in enrollment between whites and minorities--in entering 

(access and choice) or in persisting--and it can facilitate the development of 

policies to address those differences. 
Federal postsecondary education policy appears to some analysts to be 

more concerned with getting students into college--access and choice--than 

with persistence. Although the continued availability of student aid over the 

course of a postsecondary education is obviously important in promoting it, 

research suggests that persistence is affected less by student aid than by such 

institutional factors as the quality and quantity of individual contact a student 

has with other students and with faculty.1 Institutionally based policies--

including those that are federally funded--may as a result be more effective 

in addressing the issue of persistence. (A strategy along those lines is 

discussed in Chapter VI.) 

DEFINmONS OF ENTRY AND PERSISTENCE RATES 

Calculating entry and persistence rates requires classifying people into 

whether or not they are enrolled in college in the current year as well as in 

the previous year. Entrants are those students who did not attend college the 

previous year but are enrolled in the current one (see Figure 8). They include 

first-time enrollers as well as students who have attended college before. This 

second group includes "stopouts." those who leave and then return to school; 

those who have not completed a program; and those who have completed one 

below the baccalaureate level and are returning to school to enter another 

one. Thus the entry (and reentry) rate is the proportion of the population not 

enrolled in college last year but enrolled this year. Persisters are those who 

attended college the previous year and continue to do so in the current year. 

The persistence rate is the proportion of those attending college last year who 

are also enrolled this year. 

Undergraduate entry and persistence must be examined using data 

from the Current Population Survey, instead of from institutional surveys, 

because the entire population must be classified into the different enrollment 

categories to calculate the different rates. As was done in Chapter I, this 

analysis emphasizes the popUlation 18 to 24 years of age, using college 

enrollment figures that include those going both full time and part time? 

1. For example, see Vincent Tinto, Leaving College (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987). 

2. In October 1990, students who were enrolled full time were somewhat more likely than those 

enrolled part time to have also been enrolled a year earlier. About 67 percent of the full timers 

in 1990 were also enrolled in 1989, compared to 56 percent of the part timers. 

22 
FIGURE 8. BASIC CATEGORIES OF UNDERGRADUATE 

ENROLLMENT 

Is the Person Enrolled 

in the Current Year? 

Yes No Total 

Was Dropout Enrolled 

the Yes Persister or Last 

Person Graduate Year 

Enrolled 

in the Not 

Previous No Entrant (Other) Enrolled 

Year? Last Year 

Enrolled Not Enrolled Total 

Current Current 

Year Year 

While current-year college enrollment status has been available in the 

CPS for more than 25 years, information on previous-year status has been 

collected by the Bureau of the Census only since 1988. In order to analyze 

entry and persistence trends before that year, it was necessary to gauge a 

person's college enrollment status in the previous year on the basis of other 

available information, such as the year of high school graduation and current 

year of college enrollment (see Appendix C for the procedures used). 

Gauging previous college enrollment status also required calculating entry and 

persistence rates relative to the number of high school graduates, not the 

entire population of 18- to 24-year aIds. 

Entry and persistence rates were calculated for the years 1972, 1976, 

1980, 1984, 1989, and 1990. Because the Bureau of the Census in 1988 

changed the questionnaire used to collect information on enrollment, findings 

for the last years included in this analysis may not be strictly comparable with 

earlier years. To confirm that trends found between 1984 and 1990 were not 

due to changes in the questionnaire in 1988, preliminary tabulations were 

made using 1986 and 1987 CPS data. These tabulations support the findings 

reported in the analysis. 

23 
UNDERGRADUATE ENTRY RATES 

This section presents two analyses. The first examines two entry rates among 

18- to 24-year olds who were not in college the previous year. One rate (the 

two-year rate) is for entry into the first two college years and includes both 

entrance into the freshman year and reentrance into the sophomore year. 

The other rate (the four-year rate) covers entry into all four undergraduate 

years and captures the additional reentrance by stopouts who are returning for 

their junior or senior year.3 

The second analysis is based on college entry by "recent high school 

graduates" and is used to examine their choice between two-year and fouryear schools. More precisely, it is based on the college enrollment rate in 

October of individuals aged 16 to 24 who graduated from high school during 

the preceding 12 months.4 Recent high school graduates probably have the 

highest college entry rate. In contrast to the population used in the first 

analysis, this group does not include those who may have previously attended 

college and then stopped out for a year or more. 

Two-Year and Four-Year Undergraduate Entry Rates 

Access to college among 18- to 24-year olds varies by racial/ethnic group, with 

non-Hispanic whites having the highest entry rates into the first two years in 

1990, followed by non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics.5 In particular, white 

men and women had the highest entry rates in 1990, with 22 percent of them 

entering (or reentering) college in that year (see Figure 9).6 

3. In calculating the entry and persistence rates covering the first two undergraduate years, only 

those who had not completed two or more years of college were included. Similarly, in 

calculating the rates covering all four undergraduate years, only those who had not completed 

four or more years of college were included. 

4. This approach is used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tabulated the data presented. 

5. Asians, American Indians, and female and male Hispanics are not reported separately because 

their sample sizes in the Current Population Survey are too small. 

6. For an analysis of college entry that statistically controls for social background characteristics 

(including family income, parental education, and family size), see Robert M. Hauser, "What 

Happens to Youth After High School?" Focus, vol. 12, no. 3 (Fall/Winter 1991), pp. 1-13. 

24 
Figure 9. 

College Entry Rates into First Two Years of College Among 18- to 24-

Year OIds, by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, Selected Years from October 

1972 to October 1990 

Total White 

25 Percent 

I 

2S Percent 

15 

J' 

! 

! 

Botb Genders ~ Wr-~M~al~e----------------~~~~~ 

15~------------_=~~--------r_ 

Female 

10 --- lOr' ----------------------------~ 

.... 1 

76 80 84 8990 

Black Hispanic 

25 Percent 25 Percent 

20 

/~ Botb Genders 

/ ----.- 15 

w.---------------------~~--~ 10 

! .... 1 ....... 1 , , I , I' o 1972 76 SO 84 8990 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of data from the 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984,1989, and 1990 

October Current Population Surveys. See text for definitions and technical details of the calculations. 

NOTE: See Appendix B, Table B-S for data. 

25 
Significant changes in access as measured by two-year entry rates have 

occurred since 1972. Although young white men also had the highest entry 

rate in 1972, young black men were second. Since then, the entry rate of 

young black men has declined, falling to a low point in 1984, and then 

increased, returning in 1990 to where it was in 1972. In contrast, the white 

female rate has steadily increased, while the black female rate has fluctuated 

around a relatively stable trend. The Hispanic rate has also fluctuated and 

may have increased slightly since 1972.7 

The four-year entry rate, which measures access in terms of entry (or 

reentry) into all four undergraduate college years, shows results virtually 

identical to the two-year rate (see Figure 10). Because it allows for reentry 

into the last two or three years of college, the four-year rate can exceed the 

two-year rate. 

Several points based on these findings deserve emphasis. Overall, 

access to college measured by entry rates among 18- to 24-year olds was 

relatively stable between 1972 and 1980, and it reached its highest level in 

1990. However, differences in trends among groups defined by race/ethnicity 

and gender occurred during this 12-year period. Most significantly, the entry 

into college of young white women increased, while the entry of young black 

men first declined and then increased, settling at about its initial level. 

College Entry Rates of Recent High School Graduates 

Traditionally, those attending college were expected to enter during the fall 

following high school graduation, and to persist until they graduated with a 

bachelor's degree four years later. This path probably was never as typical as 

popular mythology would have it, and it certainly does not characterize the 

college careers of most recent recipients of baccalaureate degrees. 

Nevertheless, a large fraction of youths between the ages of 16 and 24 do 

choose to go on to college the fall after their high school graduation. Because 

these new undergraduates make up a large proportion of the enrollments that 

underlie the entry rates just examined, they deserve a separate investigation--

including the type of institution they choose to attend. 

7. In interpreting these numbers, the continuing Hispanic immigration should be kept in mind. 

Recent immigrants do not have the same educational opportunities to prepare for college as 

those who are native-born, but the immigrants increase the base used to calculate the relevant 

percentages. 

26 
Figure 10. 

College Entry Rates into First Four Years of College Among 18- to 24-

Year Olds, by RacelEthnicity and Gender, Selected Years from October 

1972 to October 1990 

Total White 

25 Percent 25 Percent 

20 

----

15 

Both 

-

Genders .... ~ 15~------------~~--------~ 

10 

5 

°197Z 76 80 84 8990 °1972 76 80 84 8990 

Black Hispanic 

25 Percent 25 

20 20 

15 15 

Both Gendel'll 

10 

76 80 8990 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of data from the 1972, 1976,1980,1984,1989, and 1990 

October Current Population Surveys. See text for definitions and technical details of the calculations. 

NOTE: See Appendix B, Table B-Sfor data. 

27 
Figure 11. 

Proportion of Recent High School Graduates Enrolled in College, by 

Race/Ethnicity and Gender, Average for October 1987, 1988, 1989, and 

1990 

Race/Ethnicity 

80 Percent 

70 

III Total III White • Black [] Hispanic 

Gender 

80.--------------, Percent 

70 

~ Female Male 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations based on unpublished data from the Bureau of Labor 

Statistics, derived from the 1987, 1988, 1989, and 1990 October Current Population Surveys. 

NOTES: Figures are based on recent high school graduates aged 16- to 24- years old. 

See Appendix B, Table B-6 for data. 

During the 1987-1990 period, nearly 60 percent of high school 

graduates enrolled the next fall in either two-year or four-year institutions (see 

Figure 11 and Appendix Table B-6).8 That rate greatly exceeded the one for 

all 18- to 24-year olds. It also showed that whites are more likely than 

Hispanics or blacks to enroll in college right after high school. Entry rates of 

men and women were similar over the period, although rates for women 

appeared to be increasing--and may now be slightly higher than those for men. 

8. The data come from the CPS, as tabulated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS 

has tabulated data on entry into two-year or four-year schools only since 1986. 

28 
Two out of three recent high school graduates enrolling in college 

chose four-year schools (see Figure 12). This result is somewhat more than 

the overall share of students attending four-year schools reported in Chapter 

ill, indicating that two·year institutions are more likely to be chosen by those 

who are not recent high school graduates. Among the recent graduates, 

whites were slightly more likely to choose four-year institutions than blacks, 

and both were more likely to do so than Hispanics. Men were only slightly 

more likely than women to choose four-year institutions. 

Figure 12. 

Proportion of Recent High School Graduates Enrolled in College Who 

Chose Four-Year Institutions, by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, Average for 

October 1987, 1988, 1989, and 1990 

Race/Ethnicity Gender 

Percent Percent 80 80 

70 65 66 70 67 

60 

50 

40 

30 

20 

10 

0 

n~ Total White • Black EJ Hispanic Female ~Male 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations based on unpublished data from the Bureau of Labor 

Statistics, derived from the 1987, 1988, 1989, and 1990 October Current Population Surveys. 

NOTES: Figures are based on recent high school graduates, aged 16- to 24- years old, enrolled in the fall 

following graduation. 

See Appendix B, Table B-7 for data. 

29 
Overall Findings on Entry Rates 

Access to college appears to have increased since 1972, and college entry 

rates reached their highest level to date in 1990. Rates for young white 

women increased the most; college entry first declined and then increased 

among young black men. Overall, entry rates remain highest for whites, 

followed by blacks, then Hispanics. Among recent high school graduates 

going on to college the fall after graduation, whites and blacks, but not 

Hispanics, choose four-year institutions almost twice as often as two-year 

schools. 

UNDERGRADUATE PERSISTENCE RATES 

Access to--and choice of--a college is only the first step toward acquiring a 

college degree. Mter entering, students must persist. To assess the 

persistence of undergraduates, this study employs two measures. The two-year 

persistence rate covers the transition between the first and second 

undergraduate years, measuring the proportion of those enrolled as freshmen 

in the previous year who are enrolled as sophomores in the current year. The 

four-year rate spans the transitions across the four undergraduate years, 

measuring the proportion of those who were enrolled during the previous year 

in college (and did not complete a bachelor's degree) who are also enrolled 

during the current year. 

Two measures are used because the transition experiences differ across 

the undergraduate years. Many students use the first year of postsecondary 

education as a period of experimentation to see if they like college. 

Calculating the different rates permits a comparison of persistence into the 

second year with persistence throughout the undergraduate years. 

Two-Year and Four-Year Undergraduate Persistence Rates 

Between 1980 and 1990, two-year persistence rates among 18- to 24-year oids 

increased for all groups and stood at or near their highest level at the end of 

the period (see Figure 13),9 Blacks increased their rate the most, although 

it remained below that of Hispanics and whites at the end of the period. 

9. Readers should bear in mind that because of small sample sizes, rates for minorities are subject 

to relatively greater sampling error than are rates for whites. 

30 
Figure 13. 

Undergraduate Two-Year Persistence Rates Among 18- to 24-Year 

OIds, by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, Selected Years from October 1972 to 

October 1990 

Total White 

100 Percent 100 Percent 

Male 

80 .. 80 A 

Both Ge"de~ ~ '. ~a~ 

--- ~ 

60 60 

40 40 

20 20 

°1972 76 80 84 8990 01972 84 8990 

Black Hispanic 

100 Percent 100 c=-== Percent ____________________ --, 

80~------------------------~~ 80~------------------~~~ 

Botb Genders 

60~~----------------~ 

40~~~~-------~------------~ 40r-------------------------~ 

! 

20----------------------------~ 20~--------------------~ 

! 8~ I 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of data from the 1972,1976, 1980, 1984, 1989, and 1990 

October Current Population Surveys. See text for technical details of the calculations. 

NOTE: See Appendix B, Table B-8 for data. 

31 
The four-year college persistence rate exceeds the two-year rate for all 

groups examined (see Figure 14 on page 34). In 1990, that rate was similar 

for all groups at about 80 percent. The four-year rate appears also to have 

been relatively stable between 1972 and 1980 for all groups save blacks. 

Between 1980 and 1990, all groups--especially minorities--appear to have 

increased their four-year rate. These findings, however, are based on 

averages. Persistence rates may have decreased at individual schools. 

Implied Graduation Rates 

Besides revealing the different proportions of students who continue from one 

year of college to the next, persistence rates can also be used to approximate 

graduation rates for the bachelor's degree. Because these rates are based on 

all students, many of whom are not seeking a bachelor's degree, they should 

not be taken as a success rate among those seeking a bachelor's degree. They 

are rather a broad indicator of the proportion of students who may be 

interpreted as persisting over four years and thereby earning a bachelor's 

degree.1o Since students are increasingly taking longer than four years to 

gain the degrees, however, the implied graduation rates presented here could 

be higher than the actual ones.l1 

The graduation rate estimated in this study takes into account the three 

transitions across the four undergraduate years as well as the probability of 

completing the degree after becoming a senior (since the persistence rate is 

measured from October of one year to October of the next year). The 

probability of graduating once one becomes a senior is assumed to be 95 

percent. 12 Assuming that it takes four years to complete a bachelor's degree, 

10. In using CPS data, it is conventional to consider those who have completed four years of college 

as earners of a bachelor's degree. In fact, more students appear to be taking longer than four 

years to earn such a degree, even when they maintain full-time status. On average, it might be 

more accurate to assume five years for completion of a bachelor's degree, especially since many 

students are only enrolled part time. But in order to provide a broad gauge of graduation rates, 

this analysis assumes the four-year period. 

11. The proportion of students enrolled part time differs little by race, however, so comparisons of 

implied graduation rates between blacks and whites should not be much affected by this factor. 

12. The graduation rate is estimated by a two-step process. The first step involves assuming identical 

"upper-level" transition rates--namely, those from sophomore to junior years and from junior to 

senior years. (In fact, the transition rate from sophomore to junior year can be expected to be 

lower because persons seeking associate degrees will leave college at the end of two years.) 

Second, the upper-level transition rates are calculated by setting the four-year transition rate 

equal to the sum of the two-year rate plus twice the (unknown) upper-level rate and then 

dividing that sum by three. For 1990, this means that the four-year persistence rate, 81 percent, 

is first set equal to one-third of the sum of 76 percent plus twice the upper level rate. That rate 

32 
the percentage of entering students estimated to graduate with one in that 

period ranges from a high of 53 percent for white men to a low of 45 percent 

for black women. The overall estimate for 1990 is that 51 percent of entering 

freshmen will graduate. 

COMPARING ENTRY AND PERSISTENCE RATES 

By distinguishing between entry rates and persistence rates, this analysis has 

been able to relate different aspects of postsecondary enrollment to the goals 

commonly associated with the policy of equal educational opportunity. 

Several results of the analysis are worth emphasizing. 

First, the increasing entry rates among young white women indicate 

that they have markedly improved their access to postsecondary institutions 

since 1972. As recent high school graduates, they are now choosing four-year 

institutions at a rate similar to young white men. Their persistence rates also 

run close to those of white men. Although these findings involve only women 

24 years old or younger, they help to explain the gains in female enrollment 

reported in Chapters I and II. 

Second, this analysis found that entry rates among young black men 

dropped between 1972 and 1984 and then returned to their 1972 level. The 

persistence rate of young black men, in contrast, appears to have increased 

throughout the 1972-1990 period. Although restricted to those 24 or younger, 

these results illuminate the findings on trends in enrollment counts among all 

black men, namely, their decline from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, when 

they stabilized before increasing to their 1990 level. These findings also 

suggest that getting young black men to try college may be relatively more of 

a problem than getting them to persist. Similar findings apply to black 

women. Continued efforts appear to be needed to increase the entry and 

persistence rates of young blacks to the level of young whites. 

is solved for and determined to be 84 percent. The graduation rate is then estimated by 

multiplying the four transition rates, including the 95 percent of seniors in the fall who are 

assumed to graduate. The estimated graduation rate for 1990 is .76 x .84 x .84 x .95 = .51. Thus 

51 percent are expected to graduate. 

33 
Figure 14. 

Undergraduate Four-Year Persistence Rates Among 18- to 24-Year 

Olds, by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, Selected Years from October 1972 to 

October 1990 

Total 

100 Peroent 

80 

Botb~ 

1--

60 I 

40 I 

20 I 

! 

J" , , I , , I 

1972 76 80 84 

Black 

Peroent 100r=~~--~~~--~~~------~, 

80 1 Male 

Female 

40~~------~~---------------~ 

20r-----------------------------~ 

, 8990 

White Pereent 100 

--~ - ~ Female 80 

60 

40 

20 

..... 1 

76 80 84 8990 

Hispanic 

100 Pereent 

"~D.I 60~--------------------------~ 

40r-----------------------------~ 

~ 

20r-----------------------------~ 

0 1972 

i 

76 80 8990 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of data from the 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984,1989, and 1990 

October Current Population Surveys. See text for definitions and technical details of the calculations. 

NOTE: See Appendix B, Table B-8 for data. 

34 
CHAPTER V 

COMPLETING COLLEGE 

Another way to view differences between whites and minorities with respect 

to postsecondary education is in terms of college attainment, that is, years of 

college completed or degrees earned. These measures differ from enrollment 

in that providing equal opportunity (to enroll) differs in principle from 

ensuring equal educational outcomes (graduation). Although attainment is an 

outcome measure, examining how whites and minorities compare in their 

accomplishments at certain endpoints in the education process can still be 

informative. This analysis compares whites and minorities in terms of 

completing at least two or four years of college and earning associate or 

bachelor's degrees. 

YEARS OF COLLEGE COMPLETED 

Even allowing for the fact that larger proportions of today's students take 

more than four years to complete a bachelor's degree, most people who will 

complete college probably have done so by the time they reach their late 20s. 

Thus data on the years of college completed are presented here for persons 

aged 25 to 29. 

Reflecting their high entrance and persistence rates, white women and 

men are most likely to have completed two or more years of college (see 

Figure 15). Blacks are significantly less likely, and Hispanics least likely, to 

have completed that amount, but the fact that relatively more Hispanics are 

not native-born should be kept in mind. 

Although the proportion of persons completing at least four years is 

lower than the proportion completing at least two, it increased between 1972 

and 1990 for all groups except white men, thereby reducing disparities among 

the groups (see Figure 16). The largest absolute increases were realized by 

white women. By 1990, their level was equal to that of white men, the highest 

among the various groups. 
Figure 15. 

Proportion of 25 - to 29-Year Olds Who Have Completed Two or More 

Years of College, by RacelEthnicity and Gender, Selected Years from 

October 1972 to October 1990 

Total White 

50 Percent 50 

Male 

40 40 

Both Genders 

---- 30 / 30 

Female 

20 • 

I 

Black Hispanic 

Percent Percent 50 

50 I 

40 40 

30 30 

Male 

20 20 i 

• .., 

Female 

10 10 

01972 L 0".1... I I I I ,_-----L......... 

76 80 8990 1972 76 80 84 8990 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of data from the 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1989, and 1990 

October Current Population Surveys. See text for definitions and technical details of the calculations. 

NOTE: See Appendix B, Table B -9 for data. 

36 
Figure 16. 

Proportion of 25- to 29-Year Olds Who Have Completed Four or More 

Years of College, by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, Selected Years from 

October 1972 to October 1990 

SO Percent 

40 

30 

Both Genders 

20 

-- 10 

Percent so 

I 40 

30 

20 

76 

Total 

80 

Black 

.... 10 

Ma~ 

--- Female 

76 80 

- -----

84 8990 

------. 

-

84 8990 

White 

SO Percent 

40 

~ ". 

30 

...------- 20 ~ 

Female 

10 

76 80 84 8990 

Hispanic 

SO Percent 

40 

30 

20 

Both Genders • - 10 

76 80 84 8990 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of data from the 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984,1989, and 1990 

October Current Population Surveys. See text for definitions and technical details oC the calculations. 

NOTE: See Appendix B, Table B-9 for data. 

37 
Black men also reported increases in the proportions completing at 

least four years of college, rising from 10 percent in 1972 to 14 percent by 

1990. This finding appears to be inconsistent with the finding reported earlier 

of declining college entry by black men through the mid-1980s, but the cause 

of the inconsistency is not clear. 1 Black females increased their proportion 

completing at least four years of college, too, but not as much as black 

males.2 

ASSOCIATE AND BACHELOR'S DEGREES EARNED 

The increase indicated above in the years of college completed by white 

women is confirmed by data from schools on the number of degrees they 

awarded (see Figure 17). White women now earn more associate and 

bachelor's degrees each year than do white men. They earned 47 percent of 

the former and 45 percent of the latter in 1988-89. By comparison, white men 

in that year earned 35 percent and 40 percent, respectively. Among white 

females, the number of both associate and bachelor's degrees earned 

increased between 1976-77 and 1988-89, while among white men both 

numbers declined. 

Although the total number of these degrees earned by whites of all 

ages increased, their share of total degrees earned declined. This result 

occurred because the number of degrees earned by minorities increased even 

more over the 1976-77 to 1988-89 period than did the number of degrees 

awarded to whites. 

Not all minority groups experienced increases, however. The number 

of degrees earned by blacks was relatively stable. Black men did see declines 

in the number of both associate and bachelor's degrees earned--even though 

data from household surveys indicated that more of them completed at least 

I. There also appears to be an inconsistency between the findings of an increasing trend in 

persistence rates and the finding that those who complete four or more years of college 

constitute a declining share of those who complete two or more years of college. This 

inconsistency may be due to the use of different cohorts (age groups); to differences in 

persistence between the second and third year (which is not examined) compared to persistence 

across the college years; to the increasing number of part-time students; to inaccurate reporting; 

or to a combination of these factors. 

2. The increase in the proportion of black men completing at least two or four years of college also 

does not correspond to the findings below on trends in the number of degrees they have actually 

earned. This suggests that black men are completing more years of college but not converting 

their credits into degrees, that answers by respondents are inaccurate, or some combination of 

the two. 

38 
Figure 17. 

Percent Change in the Number of Associate and Bachelor's Degrees 

Awarded, by Race!Ethnicity and Gender, 1976-77 to 1988-89 

Associate Degrees 

250~~~--------------------------------------------------------. 

zoo 

ISO 

100 80 81 78 

50 

01---''''-

-13 -16 -16 

-50L---------------------------------------------------------~ 

Total White Black Hispanic Asian/Paci(ic Am. Indian! 

Islander Alaskan Native 

_Total Female • Male 

Bachelor's Degrees 

Percent 250.----------------------------------------------------------. 

204 

ZOO 

ISO 

100 

50 

01-----

-3 -7 -11 

-SO~----------------------------------------------------------~ 

Total White Black Hispanic Asian/Paci(ic Am. Indian/ 

Hispanic Alaskan Native 

III Total Female • Male 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations based on unpublished data (rom the U.S. Department o( 

Education, National Center (or Education Statistics. 

NOTE: See Appendix B, Table B -10 for data. 

39 
two or at least four years of college. Black women had increases in both 

types of degrees, and in contrast to the study's finding that a higher proportion 

of their 25- to 29-year-old male counterparts have completed at least two or 

four years of college, the women earned more of both associate and 

bachelor's degrees than black men. The stability in the number of degrees 

earned by blacks, coupled with the increase in the number of degrees earned 

by other minorities and white women, has produced a slight decline in the 

share of degrees earned by blacks. 

Both female and male Hispanics earned more associate and bachelor's 

degrees between 1976-77 and 1988-89. Greater increases, however, were 

made by Hispanic women. By 1988-89, the shares of both types of degrees 

earned by all Hispanics increased. 

Among Asians, the number of both types of degrees earned, especially 

bachelor's degrees, rose substantially. Both men and women made the gains, 

but men continued to earn (slightly) more degrees than women. Among 

American Indian/Alaskan Natives, the number of degrees earned also 

increased, and by 1988-89 women were earning more degrees than were men. 

GENERAL FINDINGS ON COLLEGE ATTAINMENT 

Several findings about college attainment among racial/ethnic and gender 

groups deserve emphasis. First, minorities have made gains in college 

attainment, measured either as the proportion completing at least two or four 

years of college or as number of degrees earned. All groups increased their 

proportions completing at least two or four years of college. Asians and 

Hispanics also had large gains in the annual number of degrees earned 

between 1977 and 1989, but blacks earned no more undergraduate degrees at 

the end of the period than they had at the beginning. Second, women have 

made remarkable increases compared with men. White women are becoming 

the most highly educated group at the undergraduate level in the country. 

But minority women have also made very significant gains, and in all groups 

except Asians, they now earn more degrees than the men. Only two groups 

declined in both the number of associate and of bachelor's degrees they 

earned between 1976-77 and 1988-89: white males and black males. Taken 

together, these findings suggest that minorities--other than black men--have 

made real progress in college attainment. 

40 
A comparison of changes in enrollment with changes in the number of 

degrees awarded over the period from 1976-77 to 1988-89 provides additional 

insight into the differences between whites and minorities in their 

postsecondary participation (see Figures 18 and 19). Differences between 

changes in enrollment and in number of degrees earned exist by gender, 

race/ethnicity, and at two-year and four-year institutions. 

Between 1976-77 and 1988-89, undergraduate enrollment of whites in 

four-year institutions increased 12 percent, and the number of bachelor's 

degrees whites earned increased only 6 percent. This difference in changes 

in enrollment and in degrees earned probably stemmed from the fact that 

students now take longer on average to complete their degrees. In contrast, 

white enrollment increased 20 percent at two-year institutions, and associate 

degrees earned increased 3 percent over the same period. The enrollment 

change relative to the change in degrees may be greater at two-year schools 

than at four-year institutions because larger proportions of students at the 

former probably do not intend to earn a degree.3 

The patterns at both types of institutions are the net result of 

differences between men and women in enrollment and degrees earned 

(separately portrayed in Figures 18 and 19). Both enrollment and degrees 

earned increased among white women; among white men, enrollment 

increased 3 percent, and the number of degrees awarded declined. 

Among blacks, an enrollment increase of 10 percent was associated 

with a 1 percent decline in the number of bachelor's degrees earned at fouryear institutions; at two-year schools, an increase in enrollment of 10 percent 

corresponded with an increase of 4 percent in associate degrees awarded. 

These patterns are also the net result of differences between men and women 

both in enrollment and degrees earned. At two-year and four-year schools, 

both enrollment and degrees earned declined among black men, but increased 

among black women. 

Among Asian/Pacific Islanders, increases in degrees earned were 

greater than increases in enrollment at four-year institutions. At two-year 

schools, Asian/Pacific Islanders also enjoyed relatively large increases in 

degrees awarded compared to enrollment gains. 

3. Some discrepancy between enrollment and degrees earned can be expected because of the 

inherent lag between enrollment increases and graduation increases due to the time-presumably 

at least four years in the case of a bachelor's degree--needed to earn the degree. 

41 
Figure 18. 

Percent Change in Four-Year Enrollment and in Bachelor's Degrees 

Awarded, by Race/Bthnicity and Gender, 1976-77 to 1988-89 

2S0 Percent 

200 

IS0 

100 

SO 

18 11 

0 

-so 

Total 

2S0 Percent 

200 

150 

100 

SO 

0 

-so 

Total 

250 

200 

150 

100 

SO 

7 

0 

-3 

-so Total 

Total 

177 

12 6 10 

-1 

White Black: Hispanic Asian,/Pacific 

J~lander 

Female 

204 

White Black Hispanic Asian,/Pacific T~lander 

Male 

1S8 156 

0 

-7 -1 -11 

White Black Asian,/Pacific 

Islander 

• 

~eroent Change IffiI1 Percent Change in 

.n Enrollment bm Degrees Awarded 

21 22 

Am. Indian 

Ala.<;kan Native 

Am. Indian Ala~an Native 

0 

-2 

Am. Indian! 

Alaskan Native 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations based on unpublished data from the U.S. Department of 

Education, National Center for Education Statistks. 

42 
Figure 19. 

Percent Change in Two-Year Enrollment and in Associate Degrees 

Awarded, by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, 1976-77 to 1988-89 

Total 

2S0 

200 

152 

150 

100 

SO 27 

10 4 

0 

-so 

Total White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Am. Indian/ 

Islander Alaskan Native 

Female 

250 

200 

In 

150 

100 

SO 

0 

-so 

Total White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Am. Indian 

Islander Alaskan Native 

Male 

250 

zoo 

150 135 

100 

50 

7 8 

0 

-13 -16 -10 -16 

-50 

Total White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Am. Indian/ 

Islander Alaskan Native 

III Percent Change PeRient Change In 

in Enrollment Degreee Awarded 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations based on unpublished data from the U.S, Department of 

Education, National Center for Education Statistics. 

43 
Among Hispanics, increases in enrollment accompanied increases in 

degrees awarded at both four-year and two-year institutions. Although the 

increases in degrees awarded were smaller than the increases in enrollment, 

Hispanics made relatively large gains. Again, the proportion of students 

intending to complete a degree may be smaller at two-year schools than at 

four-year schools. 

One important factor in accounting for the discrepancy in most groups 

between increases in enrollment and degrees earned may well be the growth 

in the proportion of students enrolled part time. By definition, part-time 

students take longer to earn the number of credits required to receive 

degrees. Many of these students are older than the traditional age. They 

often have other responsibilities that make it impossible for them to become 

full-time students. Older students may also be more likely to stop out. 

One implication of growth in part-time enrollment--possibly coupled 

with more time stopping out--is that the time elapsed between high school 

graduation and the award of a degree has increased among all groups but 

Hispanics. In 1977, about 22 percent of non-Hispanic whites needed more 

than six years from the date of high school graduation to earn a bachelor's 

degree, while in 1986, about 26 percent took that long to earn their bachelor's 

degree. Between 1977 and 1986, the increase was from 33 percent to 38 

percent among non-Hispanic blacks and from 23 percent to 33 percent among 

Asians. In contrast, among Hispanics, the proportion taking longer than six 

years to earn a bachelor's degree declined from 44 percent to 37 percent 

during this period. 

The findings from this analysis suggest that future improvements in the 

participation of minorities in postsecondary education will depend on making 

incremental changes in a variety of areas. Attention must be given to entry 

rates, full-time or part-time status, age of enrollment, persistence, and other 

factors. 

44 
CHAPTER VI 

INCREASING MINORITY PARTICIPATION 

IN POSTSECONDARY INSTITUTIONS 

Not surprisingly, this analysis has found that minority participation in 

postsecondary education remains below that of whites. That remains true 

whether enrollment rates are measured as a proportion of the population or 

the number of high school graduates between the ages of 18 to 24. 

Although the total number of minorities enrolled in postsecondary 

institutions rose between 1976 and 1990, their participation has not increased 

as much as that of whites. Much of the white increase stems from increases 

in the enrollment rate of white women, but gender differences appear among 

both white and minority groups. 

Because of the continuing differences in participation between whites 

and minorities, many observers urge policies to increase the latter's 

postsecondary enrollment. Among the policies that have been proposed, three 

basic strategies can be identified. I One would assure low-income students as 

early as the fifth or sixth grade that financial assistance to pay for college will 

be made available to them if they meet the academic requirements, an 

assurance implicitly available to many students from more advantaged 

families. A second strategy would try to increase college entry rates, and 

possibly persistence rates, by directing a higher proportion of student aid 

funds to the financially needy, who tend disproportionately to be minority 

group members. A third approach would try to increase persistence rates by 

stepping up federal and other funding for support services to disadvantaged 

college students, a large proportion of whom are minority group members. 

The first and last of these strategies would probably involve additional 

funding; depending on how it was shaped, the second might also. 

PROVIDE ASSURED ACCESS 

A variety of private-sector programs developed in recent years guarantee 

selected elementary/secondary students that their college expenses will be 

paid if they complete high school and enroll in college. Many of these 

1. Some analysts believe that public intelVention in the earliest years of a child's life, perhaps 

through the federal Head Start program, is the best long-term strategy to increase postsecondary 

enrollment among minorities. This strategy is not considered here, however. 
approaches were inspired by Eugene Lang's "I Have A Dream" program, 

which grew out of his 1981 offer to an inner-city school's sixth-grade students 

to pay for their college education if they finished high school. Lang promised 

to pay the difference between the government-provided aid they got and the 

cost of attendance at the institution that accepted them. During the 

intervening years, he also provided various support services, including acting 

as a personal mentor to the members of that class? 

A recent study examined the differences among existing assured-access 

or guaranteed-tuition programs.3 All the programs analyzed shared the 

premise that more than money is needed to change the aspirations, 

motivations, and achievements of minority youth and to get them to enroll in 

college. These programs combine financial incentives with supportive 

services, but the mix differs considerably among the four basic program types. 

The first, sponsorship programs, operates on the premise that the life style 

and general situation of disadvantaged minorities place them at risk. As a 

result, the programs attempt to provide emotional as well as academic and 

financial support services, including the help of mentors. Some proponents 

consider intervention no later than elementary school necessary to help 

disadvantaged students develop the skills, attitudes, and knowledge needed to 

attend college. 

The second type of assured-access approach is the "last-dollar" 

program, which tends to focus on disadvantaged minorities near the end of 

their high school career. Such students have already accomplished a great 

deal, and the program's aim is to provide them with information about college 

and assistance in getting financial aid. Once a student has gotten all the 

governmental and private financial aid possible, last-dollar programs make up 

any remaining differences. 

University- or college-based programs are the third type. Although 

they vary widely, all focus on offering various groups of disadvantaged 

students a range of services, usually in addition to paying all or some of the 

tuition at their chosen institution. 

The last type of program identified is known as "pay-for-grades:' As 

the title suggests, it operates on the theory that students are not sufficiently 

motivated to achieve academically. By offering money for specified grades 

2. Among the original group of 61 sixth graders whom Lang sponsored in 1981, 36 are reported 

to be or to have been enrolled at least part time in college, as of 1988. 

3. See General Accounting Office, "Promising Practice: Private Programs Guaranteeing Student 

Aid for Higher Education," GAO/PEMD-90-16 (June 1990). 

46 
(for example, A's or B's in half of all courses) or a certain overall grade~point 

average, this approach tries to induce students to prepare for and then go to 

college. 

The study concluded that many of these assured-access programs have 

so far achieved encouraging results at relatively low average costs, ranging 

from about $100 to $900 per student in each of the precollege years. Because 

of the limited information on actual outcomes and the short operating periods 

of many of the programs, however, the report could not identify which 

elements are responsible for their initial effectiveness. Their success may rest 

on their exceptional nature, which makes the few students participating in 

them feel specially favored. If that is the case, a regular national program 

would not be as effective. 

TARGET STUDENT AID MORE TIGHTLY 

Most federal student aid is now allocated on the basis of financial need. The 

formulas used in allocating this aid take into account both the family's 

financial resources and the cost of attendance at the selected postsecondary 

institution. The amount that students and parents are expected to contribute 

is based on their ability to pay as determined by their income and assets. This 

expected family contribution is supplemented by various types of aid from 

different sources, including the federal and state governments and 

postsecondary institutions. The aid may take the form of grants, loans, or 

jobs. 

The current pattern of allocating student aid is consistent with the 

pursuit of equal educational opportunity in terms of ensuring access to 

postsecondary education, fostering choice among different postsecondary 

institutions, and promoting persistence over the years of college attendance. 

As the student aid system now operates, the amount of aid increases as the 

family's income decreases and the cost of the education increases.4 Although 

this approach to allocating aid is effective in helping additional students to 

attend the college of their choice, many others, including some who are 

disadvantaged minority students, find themselves still short of money. 

One strategy to promote college attendance by the disadvantaged 

would be to provide more aid to the most disadvantaged to make sure that 

they had no unmet financial need. This approach would ensure them not only 

greater access to college but also more choice. Choice in this sense would 

4. See Congressional Budget Office, Student Aid and the Cost of Postsecondary Education (January 

1991). 

47 
include attending four-year institutions, whether public or private, or private 

career schools. Because minority students tend to come from families with 

the lowest incomes, the strategy of increasing the amount of aid targeted 

toward the most disadvantaged could be especially effective within the current 

student aid framework. 

This strategy could be pursued in terms of any type of student aid--

grant, loan, or job. Students consider grants most desirable, since they do not 

have to be repaid or earned. Ensuring no unmet need through grants would 

thus probably be a more effective incentive to get a student to attend college 

than an equal-dollar amount of aid in the form of loans or paid employment. 

From the perspective of the federal government, however, loans are a much 

less expensive form of aid than grants or even jobs for meeting the immediate 

cash flow needs of students, since $1 of student loan costs the federal 

government only about 30 cents. For the same federal appropriations, more 

students could be helped to meet their cash flow needs with loans than with 

grants or jobs. 

Congress could more tightly target student aid either by reallocating 

current funds or by budgeting additional funds. Since reallocation would 

entail no longer providing aid--or providing substantially less of it--to some 

types of students, the Congress might choose to provide additional funds. 

Under the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990, however, doing that would 

require reducing funding in other areas. 

INCREASE STUDENT SUPPORT SERVICES 

The two prior strategies focus primarily on increasing the entry of minorities 

into postsecondary institutions. To address the problem of persistence more 

directly, other options would increase the range and intensity of support 

services to disadvantaged minority students already enrolled. As noted 

earlier, persistence is probably less responsive than entry rate to additional 

student aid or early intervention. 

The federal government already funds the Student Support Services 

(SSS) program as one of six special programs for disadvantaged postsecondary 

students.5 SSS provides a range of services, including instruction; tutoring; 

academic, career, and personal counseling; supplementary financial aid; 

services for students with limited proficiency in English; and exposure to 

5. Besides Student Support Services, the programs include Upward Bound, Talent Search, 

Educational Opportunity Centers, Ronald E. McNair Post-Baccalaureate Achievement program, 

and the Training Program for Special Programs Staff and Leadership Personnel. 

48 
cultural events. Program participation is aimed at low-income, firstgeneration, or physically disabled college students who need help to complete 

college. In each project setting, two-thirds of those served must be both low 

income and first generation. In 1990, the program served about 125,000 

students at an average cost of $500 per participant. 

Although evaluators have perceived problems in implementing this 

program in the past, research has also found that certain types of support 

services, especially nonacademic services, are effective.6 Relatively few 

students currently benefit from these services. Moreover, in the past little 

emphasis has been placed on helping students move from two-year to fouryear institutions. The Congress could consider bolstering this program so that 

it could bring the most effective services to more students. Again, however, 

under the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990, doing so would mean a reduction 

in funding in other areas. 

6. See General Accounting Office, Report on the Special SeIVices for Disadvantaged Students 

(November 12, 1982). 

49 

APPENDDCES 

APPENDIX A 

AGE-STANDARDIZED ENROLLMENT RATES 

Changes in enrollment rates of 18- to 24-year oids can stem from two sources. 

First, age-specific rates (for example, for each year between 18 and 24) can 

vary over time, whether calculated relative to population or high school 

graduates. Second, the rates can remain the same, but the age mix of 18- to 

24-year olds can shift. For instance, if there were fewer 18-year olds and 

more 24-year olds over time, the aggregate enrollment rate for all 18- to 24-

year olds would decline--assuming the enrollment rates for each year of age 

remained constant--because the enrollment rate of 18-year oids is higher than 

that of 24-year oIds. 

One way to control for possible changes in the age mix is to calculate 

what are called age-standardized rates. Although that type of adjustment was 

not done in the research reports reviewed in Chapter I, this analysis calculated 

an age-standardized 1988 enrollment rate for 18- to 24-year olds using the 

1976 age distribution (to correspond to data on enrollment counts presented 

above). 

In October 1976, the postsecondary enrollment rate (relative to 

population) of 18- to 24-year olds was 26.7 percent, compared with the agestandardized rate for October 1988 of 31.3 percent. The unstandardized rate 

for October 1988 was 30.3 percent. These figures indicate that the increase 

from 26.7 percent to 30.3 percent in unadjusted enrollment rates between 

1976 and 1988 stemmed largely from changes in age-specific enrollment rates, 

not changes in the age mix of 18- to 24-year oIds. Because unstandardized 

and age-standardized rates differ relatively little, unstandardized rates are 

used in this analysis. 

APPENDIXB 

SUPPLEMENTARY TABLES 

Tables appearing in this appendix contain the data used in constructing the 

figures that appear in the body of the analysis. 
TABLE B-1. UNDERGRADUATE ENROLLMENT IN FOUR-YEAR AND TWO-YEAR DEGREE-GRANTING 

POSTSECONDARY EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, FALL 1976 AND FALL 1990 (In thousands of students) 

Percent Change, 

Race /Ethnicity 1976 1976-1990 

of Student Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male 

Four-Year Institutions 

Total 5,439 2,599 2,860 6,530 3,491 3,039 20 34 6 

White, Non-Hispanic 4,666 2,190 2,480 5,313 2,811 2,502 14 28 1 

Minority 776 402 370 1,217 679 537 57 69 45 

Black, Non-Hispanic 514 280 230 615 369 246 20 32 7 

Hispanic 143 66 77 288 155 133 101 135 73 

Asian or Pacific Islander 90 42 48 273 132 141 203 214 194 \:.0 

American Indian or Alaskan Native 29 14 15 41 23 17 41 64 13 to 

Two-Year Institutions 

Total 3,838 1,884 1,954 5,106 2,935 2,171 33 56 11 

White, Non-Hispanic 3,074 1,500 1,570 3,918 2,255 1,663 27 50 6 

Minority 759 383 377 1,189 681 507 57 78 34 

Black, Non-Hispanic 429 230 200 509 315 194 19 37 -3 

Hispanic 210 96 114 414 229 185 97 139 62 

Asian or Pacific Islander 79 36 43 212 106 106 168 194 147 

American Indian or Alaskan Native 41 21 20 54 32 22 32 52 10 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulation of unpublished data from the U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. 

NOTE: Components may not add up to totals because of rounding and because characteristics of some individuals were not known. 
TABLE B-2. PERCENTAGE OF PERSONS AGED 18 TO 24 

ENROLLED IN COLLEGE, BY RACE/ETHNICITY 

AND GENDER, OCTOBER 1972 TO OCTOBER 1990 

Hispanic 

White Black Male and 

Year Male Female Male Female Female 

1972 31.3 21.9 20.9 15.7 13.4 

1973 28.6 21.4 18.5 13.7 16.0 

1974 28.3 22.4 20.1 16.2 18.1 

1975 30.1 23.9 20.3 21.1 20.4 

1976 28.8 25.6 22.0 23.0 19.9 

1977 28.7 24.4 20.2 22.2 17.2 

1978 27.6 23.9 19.6 20.6 15.2 

1979 26.5 24.8 19.3 20.3 16.6 

1980 27.3 25.2 17.3 20.8 16.1 

1981 27.7 25.8 18.8 20.7 16.7 

1982 27.9 26.6 18.5 20.9 16.8 

1983 28.3 25.8 18.3 20.0 17.2 

1984 29.6 26.4 20.3 20.4 17.9 

1985 29.3 28.2 20.1 19.5 16.9 

1986 29.3 28.0 20.7 23.5 18.2 

1987 31.2 29.2 22.6 23.0 17.6 

1988 31.4 31.2 18.0 23.8 17.0 

1989 31.5 32.2 19.6 26.8 16.1 

1990 32.7 32.3 26.1 24.8 15.8 

SOURCES: Bureau of the Census, "School Enrollment--Social and Economic Characteristics of 

Students: October 1989," Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 452; and 

unpublished data. 

57 
TABLE B-3. PERCENTAGE OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES AGED 

18 TO 24 ENROLLED IN COLLEGE, BY RACE/ 

ETHNICITY AND GENDER, OCTOBER 1972 

TO OCTOBER 1990 

Hispanic 

White Black Male and 

Year Male Female Male Female Female 

1972 38.6 26.6 33.0 22.5 25.8 

1973 35.1 25.6 27.9 20.5 29.1 

1974 34.6 26.8 30.5 23.7 32.3 

1975 36.4 28.6 32.8 31.5 35.5 

1976 35.4 30.7 35.4 32.0 35.8 

1977 35.5 29.1 31.9 31.4 31.5 

1978 33.9 28.6 31.9 28.2 27.2 

1979 32.8 29.7 31.2 28.3 30.2 

1980 33.8 29.9 26.3 28.6 29.8 

1981 34.7 30.5 28.2 27.8 29.9 

1982 34.4 31.8 28.3 27.7 29.2 

1983 35.4 30.6 27.5 26.7 31.4 

1984 36.4 31.1 28.9 26.0 29.9 

1985 35.8 33.0 27.7 24.9 26.9 

1986 36.1 33.0 28.6 29.4 30.4 

1987 38.7 34.7 31.7 28.7 28.5 

1988 39.4 36.9 25.0 30.5 30.9 

1989 39.4 38.2 27.1 33.8 28.7 

1990 40.3 38.6 34.4 31.8 29.0 

SOURCES: Bureau of the Census, "School Enrollment--Social and Economic Characteristics of 

Students: October 1989," Current Population Reports, Series P.20, No. 452; and 

unpublished data. 

58 
TABLE B-4. ENROLLMENT IN PROPRIETARY INSTITUTIONS 

AMONG PERSONS AGED 18 TO 34, BY RACE! 

ETHNICITY AND GENDER, OCTOBER 1976, 

1980, 1989, AND 1990 

1976 1980 1989 1990 

Numbers (Thousands) 

Total 1,139 1,062 1,065 1,076 

White, Non-Hispanic 977 846 823 805 

Black, Non-Hispanic 92 114 130 109 

Hispanic 53 69 89 128 

Other 16 34 22 34 

Female 525 519 504 518 

Male 614 543 561 558 

Distribution (Percent) 

Total 100 100 100 100 

White, Non-Hispanic 86 80 77 75 

Black, Non-Hispanic 8 11 12 10 

Hispanic 

Other 

Female 

Male 

SOURCE: 

NOTE: 

5 7 8 12 

1 3 2 3 

46 49 47 48 

54 51 53 52 

Congressional Budget Office tabulations of data from the October Current Population 

Surveys for the years 1976, 1980, 1989, and 1990. Tabulation reflects positive responses 

to the question "Is ... taking any business, vocational, technical, or correspondence courses 

other than on the job training?" However, college graduates and current college students 

have been excluded. 

Racial/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive. Components may not add up to totals 

because of rounding. 

59 
TABLE B-5. COLLEGE ENTRY RATES AMONG 18- TO 24-YEAR 

OLDS, BY TYPE OF RATE AND BY RACE/ETHNICITY 

AND GENDER, OCTOBER 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984 

1989, AND 1990 (In percentages) 

1972 1976 1980 1984 1989 1990 

Rate of Entry (or Reentry) 

in First Two Years 

Total 15 15 15 16 19 21 

White, Non-Hispanic 

Female 12 14 14 16 20 22 

Male 19 16 16 19 21 22 

Black, Non-Hispanic 

Female 14 14 16 12 16 16 

Male 18 16 13 11 14 18 

Hispanic 11 20 17 14 15 15 

Rate of Entry (or Reentry) in 

All Four Undergraduate Years 

Total 15 16 15 17 20 21 

White, Non-Hispanic 

Female 12 14 14 16 21 21 

Male 18 17 16 19 21 22 

Black, Non-Hispanic 

Female 13 14 16 13 17 16 

Male 17 17 12 12 15 19 

Hispanic 12 21 17 14 14 14 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of data from the October Current Population 

Surveys. See text for definitions and Appendix C for technical details of the rate 

calculations. 

60 
TABLE B-6. PROPORTION OF RECENT HIGH SCHOOL 

GRADUATES AGED 16 TO 24 ENROLLED IN 

TWO·YEAR OR FOUR-YEAR COLLEGES IN 

THE FOLLOWING FALL, BY RACE/ETHNICITY 

OR GENDER, OCTOBER 1987 TO OCTOBER 1990 

(In percentages) 

1987 1988 1989 1990 Average 

Total 57 59 60 60 59 

White 57 61 60 61 60 

Black 52 45 53 46 49 

Hispanic 34 57 55 48 49 

Female 55 61 62 62 60 

Male 58 57 58 58 58 

SOURCE: Unpublished tabulations from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, based on data from the 

October Current Population Surveys conducted by the Bureau of the Census. 

NOTES: The four-year average is weighted by population size. 

Hispanics may be of any race and are included in the subtotals for whites and blacks. 

61 
TABLE B-7. PROPORTION OF RECENT HIGH SCHOOL 

GRADUATES AGED 16 TO 24 ENROLLED IN 

COLLEGE IN THE FOLLOWING FALL WHO 

CHOSE FOUR-YEAR COLLEGES, BY RACE/ 

ETHNICITY OR GENDER, OCTOBER 1987 

TO OCTOBER 1990 (In percentages) 

Total 

White 

Black 

Hispanic 

Female 

Male 

1987 1988 

67 63 

67 63 

70 63 

59 55 

63 63 

71 63 

1989 1990 

65 67 

65 68 

60 58 

32 35 

63 66 

68 67 

Average 

65 

66 

63 

45 

64 

67 

SOURCE: Unpublished tabulations from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, based on data from the 

October Current Population Surveys conducted by the Bureau of the Census. 

NOTES: The four-year average is weighted by population size. 

Hispanics may be of any race and are included in the subtotals for whites and blacks. 

62 
TABLE B-8. UNDERGRADUATE PERSISTENCE RATES 

AMONG 18- TO 24-YEAR OLDS, BY TYPE 

OF RATE AND BY RACE/ETHNICITY AND 

GENDER, OCTOBER 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984 

1989, AND 1990 (In percentages) 

1972 1976 1980 1984 1989 1990 

Two-Year Persistence Rate 

Total 64 69 68 68 81 76 

White, Non-Hispanic 

Female 65 70 68 68 80 75 

Male 67 69 72 70 82 77 

Black, Non-Hispanic 

Female 41 67 58 53 80 69 

Male 60 75 51 70 69 78 

Hispanic 56 68 67 66 83 77 

Four-Year Persistence Rate 

Total 73 75 75 75 84 81 

White, Non-Hispanic 

Female 73 75 74 74 84 80 

Male 75 75 78 79 85 82 

Black, Non-Hispanic 

Female 56 72 63 63 86 78 

Male 69 82 63 71 78 80 

Hispanic 65 70 67 70 84 80 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of data from the October Current Population 

SuIVeyS. See text for definitions and Appendix A for technical details of the rate 

calculations. 

NOTE: Racial/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive. 

63 
TABLE B-9. PROPORTION OF 25- TO 29-YEAR OLDS WHO HAVE 

COMPLETED TWO OR FOUR YEARS OF COLLEGE, BY 

RACE/ETHNICITY AND GENDER, OCTOBER 1972, 1976, 

1980, 1984, 1989 AND 1990 (In percentages) 

1972 1976 1980 1984 1989 1990 

Two or More Years Completed 

Total 30 36 36 36 37 38 

White, Non-Hispanic 

Female 27 33 37 38 42 43 

Male 38 44 42 38 39 41 

Black, Non-Hispanic 

Female 14 19 24 28 25 25 

Male 18 24 25 28 30 27 

Hispanic 10 15 17 18 18 17 

Four or More Years Completed 

Total 20 23 23 22 23 23 

White, Non-Hispanic 

Female 19 23 23 24 26 26 

Male 26 28 28 25 25 26 

Black, Non-Hispanic 

Female 8 10 12 13 11 11 

Male 10 12 14 12 15 14 

Hispanic 4 6 9 8 9 9 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of data from the October Current Population 

Surveys. 

NOTE: Racial/ethnic categories are mutually exclusive. 

64 
TABLE B-I0. ASSOCIATE AND BACHELOR'S DEGREES A WARDED, BY RACE/ETHNlCITY 

AND GENDER, 1976-77 TO 1988-89 (In thousands of awarded degrees) 

1976-77 1988-89 Percentage Change 

Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male 

Bachelor's Degree 

Total 902 419 483 988 524 464 10 25 -4 

White, Non-Hispanic 808 370 438 858 452 407 6 22 -7 

Minority 

Black, Non-Hispanic 59 33 25 58 36 22 -1 7 -11 

Hispanic 19 8 10 30 16 14 59 89 35 

Asian or Pacific Islander 14 6 8 38 19 20 177 204 156 

American Indian/Alaskan Native 3 2 2 4 2 2 22 50 -2 

r.n 

<:.D 

Associate Degree 

Total 401 194 207 424 244 180 6 26 -13 

White, Non-Hispanic 342 164 178 353 203 150 3 24 -16 

Minority 

Black, Non-Hispanic 33 18 15 34 22 13 4 21 -16 

Hispanic 17 8 9 20 11 9 22 48 1 

Asian or Pacific Islander 7 3 4 12 6 6 80 81 78 

American Indian/Alaskan Native 2 1 1 3 2 1 33 56 8 

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of unpublished data from the U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. 

NOTES: Components may not add up to totals because of rounding. 

APPENDIX C 

A TECHNICAL NOTE ON ENTRY AND PERSISTENCE 

RATES IN POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION 

This appendix describes the technical basis for estimating the undergraduate 

entry and persistence rates presented in the paper. First, it identifies the 

composition of enrollment and defines its elements. Second, it describes the 

analysis of enrollment in terms of stocks and flows. Finally, it presents the 

approach that was developed to estimate entry and persistence rates based on 

data from the October supplement of the Census Bureau's Current Population 

Survey. 

Postsecondary enrollment can be divided a number of ways. One 

approach relates enrollment in the current year (t) to enrollment in the 

preceding year (t-l) as: 

Enrollment(t) = Enrollment(t-l) + Entrants(t) - Leavers(t) 

where entrants are those who were not enrolled in college 

last year (t-l), and leavers are those who were enrolled 

last year but are not this year (t). 

The equation notes that enrollment in the current year equals that in the last 

year plus new students or entrants and minus those who do not return. By 

rearranging the equation, this year's enrollment can thus be divided into 

entrants and persisters: 

Enrollment(t) = Entrants(t) + Persisters (t), 

where Persisters(t) = Enrollment(t-l) - Leavers(t)l 

The distinction between entrants and persisters has public policy significance 

because different policies may be appropriate with respect to fostering the 

enrollment of new students, as distinct from the retention of current students. 

Student aid policy focuses primarily on the former; the latter is more the 

1. More fonnally, the probability of postsecondary enrollment this year is a function of the 

probability of entering college this year plus the probability of persisting in college last year 

given enrollment last year, or: 

Pr(Enrol[tD = Pr(Entry[tD + Pr(Enrol[t] I Enrol[t-1D*Pr(Enrol[t-1D 
concern of institutions that want to keep the students who have already 

enrolled and possibly already received student aid. 

Further distinctions can be made among entrants and persisters. For 

example, among entrants there are first-time students (never enrolled in 

college before) and reentering students (not enrolled last year but enrolled at 

some previous time). Again, more formally: 

Entrants = First-time enrollers + Returning students 

Leavers can also be broken down into two types: 

Leavers = Graduates + Noncompleters 

In addition, two types of noncompleters can be distinguished: 

Noncompleters = Stopouts + Dropouts 

The distinction between stopout and dropout becomes apparent only with 

hindsight--after a former student has become a returner (and thus was a 

stop out) or fails to return (and thus is a dropout). 

Those different categories of enrollment can be identified in tabular 

form by examining college enrollment status this year and in previous years. 

In Schematic C-l, E(t) and N(t) refer to those enrolled and not enrolled this 

year; E(t-l) and N(t-l) refer to those enrolled and not enrolled last year; and 

E(B) and N(B) refer to those enrolled and not enrolled before last year. 

That classification can be used with various population universes.2 For 

example, by restricting the population of interest to those who have not 

earned a bachelor's degree (completed four years of college), those in cells 

5, 6, and 7 will only be dropouts and not graduates (although the dropouts 

could turn into stopouts if they return to college). Further restrictions can 

also be imposed on the population used for analysis: for example, in terms 

of current year of enrollment (freshman, sophomore, etc.), by highest level of 

college attainment, age, and other characteristics. Enrollment can also be 

classified in terms of the type of institution in which the student enrolls (or 

from which the student drops out), such as a two-year or four-year private, 

public, or proprietary (for-profit) institution; attendance status; and level of 

attendance, that is, undergraduate or graduate. 

2. In the body of the paper, two populations are used: for calculating the two-year rate, those who 

had completed less than two years of college; and for calculating the four-year rate, those who 

had completed less than four years of college. 

68 
SCHEMATIC C-l. COLLEGE ENROLLMENT STATUS 

Enrollment 

Status 

This Year 

E(t) 

N(t) 

Enrollment Status Last Year 

E(t-I) N(t-I) 

Ever Enrolled Before 

Last Year 

E(B) N(B) 

(1) (2) 

Persister Persister 

(soph to jr 

or (frosh to 

jr to sr) soph) 

(5) (6) 

Dropout Dropout 

(at least (at least 

for now, for now, 

or a grad) or a grad) 

Ever Enrolled Before 

Last Year 

E(B) N(B) 

(3) 

Stopout 

(was a 

dropout 

last year) 

(7) 

Dropout 

(at least 

for now, 

or a grad) 

(4) 

First-Time 

Student 

(mayor may 

not be recent 

HS grad) 

(8) 

Nonattender 

STOCKS AND FLOWS 

A basic distinction underlying Schematic C-l is that between stocks and flows. 

Stocks refer to the number of persons in each category. The basic stock 

categories are enrolled and not enrolled (in the year of reference). 

Flows are defined as changes from one stock to another--jn the case at 

hand, the number of people moving into the enrolled category from 

nonenrollment (entrants) and those moving into nonenrollment from 

enrollment (leavers), One way to clarify these ideas is by collapsing 

Schematic C-l a bit and reproducing it as Schematic C-2. 

69 
SCHEMATIC C~2. ENROLLMENT FLOW CATEGORIES 

College Enrollment 

Status This Year 

Enrollment Status Not 

Last Year Enrolled E(t) Enrolled N(t) Total 

Enrolled 1. EE(t) 2. EN(t) E(t-l) 

E(t-l) (Persisters) (Dropouts/Graduates) 

Not Enrolled 3. NE(t) 4. NN(t) N(t-l) 

N(t-l) (Entrants) 

Total E(t) N(t) 

The symbols in each cell represent the number of people making the 

different transitions from last year to this year. For example, EN(t) 

represents the number enrolled last year (denoted by the first letter, E) who 

are not enrolled this year (denoted by the last letter, N). They are the leavers 

(dropouts or graduates). 

In this analysis, two flow rates or transition probabilities are of primary 

concern: 

1. NE(t)/N(t-l) = the probability of enrolling, 

as defined by the number of people not enrolled last year but enrolled this 

year [NE(t)] divided by the number of people not enrolled last year [N(t-l)]; 

and: 

IIa. EN(t)/E(t-l) = the probability of leaving, or its inverse, 

lIb. 1 - EN(t)/E(t-l) = EE(t)/E(t-l) = the probability of persisting, 

where the probability of leaving is defined as the number of people who were 

enrolled last year but not this year [EN(t)] divided by the number enrolled 

last year [E(t-l)]. 

70 
These flow rates are important because they underlie changes or 

differences in the enrollment patterns of different populations. That is, 

changes or differences in enrollment rates can be linked to those in transition 

probabilities into or out of college. For example, if black youth have a higher 

probability than whites of leaving college, even if the two groups' probability 

of entering college was the same, blacks' enrollment rate would be lower. 

DATA ON STOCKS AND FLOWS 

Enrollment stocks are relatively easy to measure and widely available. 

Sources include the Department of Education's National Center for Education 

Statistics (NCES) and the Department of Commerce's Bureau of the Census. 

Flow data, on the other hand, require tracking students over time and are less 

readily available. NCES does have longitudinal data appropriate for 

calculating postsecondary enrollment flow rates for the high school class of 

1972 and for the high school sophomore and senior cohorts of the High 

School and Beyond study (high school classes of 1980 and 1982). C. Dennis 

Carroll of NCES has prepared a number of publications tracking students 

through changes in enrollment status. In addition, the Bureau of the Census' 

Current Population Survey (CPS) questions respondents on the enrollment 

status of household members one year earlier in its annual October school 

enrollment supplement. Robert Kominsky of the bureau has used such data 

to develop high school dropout rates. (The CPS is a survey of about 60,000 

households designed primarily to collect monthly employment data.) 

In this report, CPS data are used to divide postsecondary enrollment into 

the categories defined by Schematic C-2 and then to calculate flow rates into 

and out of college.3 The data were tabulated in two phases. In the first, 

current students were divided into entrants and persisters based on data 

collected through three questions asked of respondents in the October CPS 

supplement (see Schematic C-3). The first question concerns level of college 

3. CPS data could also be used to divide the population into the categories defined by Schematic C-l. 

Enrollment status the year before last could be determined on the basis of the CPS items on highest 

grade attended and whether it was completed in conjunction with college enrollment status last year. 

Using the categories in Schematic C-l would permit a definition of entrants and persisters (and 

hence nonpersisters) different from the one presented in this paper. For example, entrants could 

be deImed as those who have never been in college before but are enrolled this year. Persisters 

could be defined as those who are in college this year and have been at some time in the past. Such 

an approach would broaden the category of persisters to include some of those defined as reentrants in the analysis presented in this paper (those in cell 3, the stopouts). As a result, 

nonpersisters would be defined as those who had ever been enrolled but had not completed a 

degree, instead of as those who are not enrolled this year but who were enrolled last year. That 

approach was not used in the analysis because the primary focus was on transitions from one year 

to the next. 

71 
SCHEMATIC C-3. CPS DATA ANALYSIS CATEGORIES: 

CURRENT STUDENTS 

Attended College 

or School Last October 

Yes 

Highest Recent HS Not Recent Recent Not 

Level of Graduate Graduate High Recent 

Current College (current (previous School HS 

Enrollment year) years) Graduate Graduate 

Freshman Entrant Persister Void Entrant 

(1) (2) (3) (4) 

Sophomore Void Persister Void Entrant 

and Above (5) (6) (7) (8) 

enrollment, which is divided into freshman (Yl or first-year college) and 

sophomores through seniors (Y2 through Y 4). The second involves whether 

the college student was enrolled in a regular college or school in October one 

year earlier. The third solicits the year of high school graduation, which was 

used to divide the population into recent high school graduates (graduated in 

the same year as the surveyor previous graduates). Further division of 

entrants and persisters would be possible if additional data were available on 

the month and year of initial college entry and of graduation; such data are 

not available, however. 

In the second phase, respondents not currently enrolled in college (and 

at least high school graduates) are separated into those who were and were 

not enrolled in college last year (see Schematic C-4). This division uses the 

CPS items on highest level of education attended and completed, current 

college attendance status, school or college attendance status last year, and 

year of high school graduation. The top part of the table (banner) presented 

in Schematic C-4 is identical to the one in Schematic C-3, but the side part 

72 
SCHEMATIC C-4. CPS DATA ANALYSIS CATEGORIES: 

NONENROLLED POPULATION 

Attended College 

or School Last October 

Yes No 

Highest Recent HS Not Recent Recent Not 

Level of Graduate Graduate High Recent 

Educational (current (previous School HS 

Attendance year) years) Graduate Graduate 

High School No Entry Void Void No Entry 

Graduate (9) (10) (11) (12) 

College Freshman Void Leaver Void No Entry 

or Above (13) (14) (15) (16) 

(stub) is different. Those in the "no entry" cells were not in college this year 

or last and have never attended college in the past. Those in the Ie aver cell 

were in college last year but are not there currently.4 

Because of the numerous paths through the various high school and 

regular postsecondary education systems across the United States, this division 

of college enrollment probably misc1assifies some individuals. One potential 

cause of misc1assification is that data on individuals are only collected in the 

CPS on an annual basis in October, but educational status can change at 

several points during the years. More than one change in status between 

successive Octobers is also possible. The number of miscIassifications will, 

however, probably be relatively small and sometimes offsetting. Moreover, 

because the study'S primary interest lies in trends--and because little reason 

exists to believe that such misc1assifications are changing over time--any bias 

in the findings concerning trends should be minimal. 

4. In using CPS data, some erroneous (that is, logically inconsistent) data were found. As a result, the 

data required additional editing based on the student's age and expected year in school. 

73 
Figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on college entry among recent 

high school graduates can also be placed in the schematic. Schematic C-l has 

them in cell 4, where the graduates are a subcategory of all new entrants. In 

Schematic C-3, they are found primarily in cell 1 (although some may be in 

cell 5 if they are advanced placement students). 

74