APPENDIX C 

REVIEW OF OPERATIONS PLAN 

PREPARED BY WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES 

DesertXpress Operations Plan Review 

Prepared by: Wilbur Smith Associates 

April 21, 2008 

This review and assessment is based on the Regina EMU System Operations Plan as 

prepared by Bombardier Inc. The identity number provided on the basic document is 

S806-SWD-BRA-010001, dated November 28, 2007. In response to questions, DXE 

subsequently provided additional data regarding running times and ridership forecasts by 

day and direction. Since the Operations plan was prepared in November, 2007 and the 

detailed planning for the system has continued, some details of the operating plan may no 

longer be valid, but it continues to provide a general statement of how service is to be 

provided. 

Summary of Operations Plan

The Operations Plan is primarily directed to a general description of normal operations, 

including failure management plans (contingencies) for service interruptions or failures. 

General information is provided on proposed schedules, fleet size, capacity, anticipated 

mileage, and other operating data. 

The Operations Plan does not itself provide specific data related to projected passenger 

volumes, or how such volumes related directly to the analysis of station operations, 

parking and access adequacy. A separate report prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 

(CSI) for the FRA critically reviewed the project applicant’s ridership study. The CSI 

study presented final ridership projections that will be utilized in the EIS. The CSI study 

was reviewed alongside the Operations Plan. 

The system is described as generally following the I-15 highway alignment, with terminal 

stations at Victorville and Las Vegas. The operations, maintenance, and service facility 

(OMSF) would be located at Victorville. A proposed intermediate station at Barstow is 

mentioned in the Operations Plan but has been withdrawn from the EIS project 

description. There are no site plans for stations or the maintenance facility included in 

the Operations Plan, but such schematic plans were provided under separate cover to 

WSA and were reviewed with the Operations Plan. 

The system comprises a double track main line between Victorville and Las Vegas, 

signaled for operation in either direction on either track, with crossover tracks located 10 

to 25 miles apart along the route (see track plan, Figure 2-2). The Maximum tangent 

speed is 125 mph, and turnout (crossover) speeds are 50 mph. The system is proposed to 

operate every day, from approximately 6:00 AM to Midnight. 

The Victorville station will have two station platforms serving two tracks.. Outside 

platforms are understood to be for passenger loading; a center platform would provide 

baggage access to both tracks. 
 Locations of station features, including parking, ingress/egress, and platforms are shown 

schematically on site plans that were provided to WSA under separate cover from the 

Operations Plan. 

Checked baggage service is proposed, utilizing roll-on luggage bins stored in secure 

baggage areas at the end of each platform, and on-train baggage compartments in the end 

car of each train set. Baggage would be checked through from Victorville to each 

passenger’s hotel, and for the return trip, directly from hotels to Victorville. Baggage 

service would be contracted to a baggage service contractor. The schematic drawing of 

station designs shows a center “baggage” service platform between the two tracks, with 

passenger platforms on the outside of each track. This suggests that baggage could be 

worked from one side of the train while passengers alight and board on the opposite side 

from the passenger platforms. 

DXE is considering two propulsive technologies: Bombardier’s Regina Electric Multiple 

Unit (EMU) and Bombardier’s Meridian Diesel-Electric Multiple Unit (DEMU). The 

EMU is powered by overhead catenary. Each train would consist of 10 cars with a 

passenger capacity of 675 in a combination of first class and second class seating. 

For the DEMU option, trains would consist of 10 cars with a passenger capacity of 478 in 

a first and second class combination. 

The EMU option requires a minimum travel time from Victorville to Las Vegas (under 

ideal conditions) of 98.1 minutes. The return trip requires 94.4 minutes1

. For normal 

operations, which include allowance for variations in equipment performance, possible 

delays in station boarding or alighting, and differences in operator handling, a typical one 

way trip would require 100 to 110 minutes including layover time. The layover dwell 

time at Victorville and Las Vegas, including time for necessary interior cleaning between 

runs, results in a planned operating cycle of 4 hours for each round trip. 

The DEMU option would have similar top operating speeds, but with reduced 

acceleration and deceleration performance, requiring greater running times. The 

eastbound trip to Las Vegas would require 109.1 minutes and the westbound return 

would take 104.9 minutes. A one way trip could require 110 to 120 minutes including 

layover time. 

Trains would operate at a maximum speed of 125 miles per hour, but actual speeds would 

be less through some curves and when operating on the steepest grades. The maximum 

grade (eastbound and westbound) is 4.50 percent. 

A brief comparison of the reported characteristics of the two equipment options is shown 

below. These performance criteria may change slightly with updates to the forecasts or 

operating plans. 

 

1

 Running times provided in EMU/DEMU comparison table as revised 4/1/08. 
Characteristic Regina EMU Meridian DEMU 

Passenger Cars per Train 10 10 

Train Capacity (Seated) 675 478 

Minimum Station Layover Time 20 minutes 20 minutes 

Minimum Travel Time 100 minutes 115 minutes 

Sunday Westbound Capacity 2012: 19,520 passengers 

2041: 36,769 passengers 

2012: 19,520 passengers 

2041: 37,208 passengers 

Round Trips per Week 2012: 155 

2041: 298 

2012: 220 

2041: 415 

Total Train Sets Required 2012: 16 

2041: 25 

2012: 21 

2041: 39 

Schedules are intended to provide the minimum number of daily trips specified in the 

URS Ridership Report (Draft Final Report, December 22, 2005, as modified by 

Transmax in April 2006). The ridership numbers are not repeated in the Operations Plan, 

but are noted and refined with the CSI ridership review study. The Operations Plan notes 

that scheduling details and plans for holiday or special event travel will be optimized 

(modified) after the alignment and operating parameters have been finalized. 

Initial EMU service would require 16 equipment sets. Ridership in 2027 would require 

20 sets, and ridership by 2041 would require 25 sets. 

DEMU service, with lower capacity in each train, would require 21 initial sets and 39 sets 

by 2041. All calculations assume two spare train sets and two standby train sets (to be 

put into service in event of any disruption or mechanical problem with an in-service 

train). The operation plan is based on a 92% load factor during peaks and an 85% load 

factor at other times. 

Proposed 2010 EMU schedules show 17 trips in each direction on a typical weekday, 

with headways (interval between trains) of 30 minutes to 1 hour. Two train sets would 

start from Las Vegas after an overnight layover, and two train sets would start from 

Victorville. Two additional train sets would be cycled into operation during the 

afternoon, enabling the 30 minute frequencies and allowing rotation of the equipment to 

the OMSF for servicing. 

Proposed schedules are shown only for the EMU option, and are generalized as MondayThursday schedules, and Friday-Sunday schedules. However, a review of the operating 

characteristics above reveal that in both 2012 and 2041 DEMUs would make many more 

round trips per week than EMUs. Accordingly, this analysis concludes that the schedules 

for the two equipment types would be different. 

Weekend (Friday-Sunday) service in 2010 would provide 33 trips in each direction with 

headways of 20 minutes during mid-day peaks and 30 minutes during morning and 

evening periods. Two train sets would lay over in Las Vegas and begin service there in 

the morning, while 10 additional sets would be phased into service from Victorville. 
Some sets would make fewer trips than others, again allowing for rotation of the 

equipment into the OMSF for servicing. 

Finally, the operating plan describes plans for failure management and service recovery 

following potential service disruptions. It also includes projections of operating and 

maintenance employee levels anticipated for the system. 

Ridership Forecasts 

Initial ridership forecasts for the DesertXpress system were prepared for the project 

applicant by URS Corporation in late 2005. FRA commissioned a peer review of the 

ridership study, which was finalized by Cambridge Systematics, Inc., in February, 2008. 

CSI reviewed the methodology and base data used for the original forecasts, and 

recommended modified forecasts as shown in the table below. 

This analysis of the operating plan utilizes the CSI modified forecasts. As a result, some 

elements of the original operating plan that were designed for the earlier (higher) 

forecasts may need to be adjusted. 

URS Original Forecast CSI Modified Forecast 

DEMU Annual Round? Trips 

 2012 2,186,427 1,947,478 

 2014 3,941,399 3,510,654 

 2035 6,466,311 5,759,623 

EMU Annual Round Trips 

 2012 2,775,915 2,472,305 

 2014 5,004,050 4,456,742 

 2035 8,209,709 7,311,789 

Note: 2012 trips reflects a “ramp-up period” in 2012 and 2013, with the full forecast 

being attained by 2014. 

All the forecasts appear to be made in terms of round trips, with all trips originating at the 

Southern California end of the route. 

In a subsequent phone discussion, DXE confirmed that a separate forecast for trips 

originating in Las Vegas is underway, but unavailable at this time. Additionally, while 

there is some discussion of surveys that show more travel volumes on particular days in 

the ridership forecasts, there is no clear definition of travel volumes by direction or by 

day in the URS or CSI forecasts. DXE subsequently provided data relative to volumes by 

direction, day, and time of day. 

Using the CSI modified forecasts, annual travel (stated in round trips) was translated to 

average weekly volumes, and then doubled to provide a forecast of total one-way trips. 

DEMU EMU 

2014 Annual Round Trips 3,510,654 4,456,742 
2035 Annual Round Trips 5,759,623 7,311,789 

 

2014 Average Week Round Trips 67,327 85,471 

2035 Average Week Round Trips 110,458 140,226 

 

2014 Average Week 1-Way Trips 134,654 170,942 

2035 Average Week 1-Way Trips 220,916 280,452 

DXE provided supplemental forecasts of the share of trips that would be made by day 

and direction. These percentages (derived from surveys of current highway traffic 

volumes) resulted in the following forecasts. 

DEMU EMU 

North South North South 

Year 2014 2035 2014 2035 2014 2035 2014 2035 

Monday 4,915 8,063 12,254 20,103 6,239 10,236 15,556 25,521

Tuesday 6,329 10,383 5,790 9,499 8,034 13,181 7,351 12,059

Wednesday 6,531 10,714 7,137 11,709 8,291 13,602 9,060 14,864

Thursday 11,446 18,778 7,204 11,819 14,530 23,838 9,145 15,004

Friday 14,610 23,969 10,032 16,458 18,547 30,429 12,735 20,894

Saturday 12,321 20,214 8,483 13,918 15,641 25,661 10,769 17,668

Sunday 11,176 18,336 16,428 26,952 14,188 23,278 20,855 34,215

Total Week 67,327 110,458 67,327 110,458 85,471 140,226 85,471 140,226

DXE also provided forecasts of travel demand by time of day, again based on current 

highway volumes based on Kunzman traffic counts. For the southbound direction, these 

showed about half the travel occurring between Noon and 7PM, with peak demand 

slightly earlier on Saturdays and slightly later on Fridays. Northbound patterns are 

assumed to be similar. Typical hotel check-out times before Noon and check-in times 

after 3PM reinforce the expectation of the greatest travel demand during the mid-day 

hours, whether involving an auto trip of several hours or a DXE trip of less than two 

hours. 

The highest volumes expected on Sundays for both the DEMU and EMU options become 

the critical levels in determining the ability of the system to accommodate projected 

travel. Using the Friday and Sunday distributions of highway traffic as a measure of 

expected DXE volumes by hour during each day, the highest volumes that stations and 

trains will need to handle are shown below. Peak passenger volumes for each day and 

direction are shown in boldface for both 2014 and 2035 years. 

For Year 2014: 

 

 Friday Sunday 

 DEMU EMU DEMU EMU 

 North South North South North South North South 

6 AM 190 130 241 166 89 131 114 167 

7 AM 248 171 315 216 134 197 170 250 
8 AM 336 231 427 293 246 361 312 459 

9 AM 453 311 575 395 391 575 497 730 

10 AM 570 391 723 497 548 805 695 1,022 

11 AM 614 421 779 535 715 1,051 908 1,335 

12 N 760 522 964 662 805 1,183 1,022 1,502 

1 PM 891 612 1,131 777 905 1,331 1,149 1,689 

2 PM 993 682 1,261 866 950 1,396 1,206 1,773 

3 PM 1,081 742 1,372 942 928 1,364 1,178 1,731 

4 PM 1,052 722 1,335 917 805 1,183 1,022 1,502 

5 PM 993 682 1,261 866 782 1,150 993 1,460 

6 PM 979 672 1,243 853 805 1,183 1,022 1,502 

7 PM 906 622 1,150 790 749 1,101 951 1,397 

8 PM 862 592 1,094 751 615 904 780 1,147 

9 PM 833 572 1,057 726 536 789 681 1,001 

10 PM 964 662 1,224 841 469 690 596 876 

11 PM 964 662 1,224 841 369 542 468 688 

12 M 950 652 1,206 828 291 427 369 542 

Total 14,610 10,032 18,547 12,735 11,176 16,428 14,188 20,855 

For year 2035: 

 Friday Sunday 

 DEMU EMU DEMU EMU 

 North South North South North South North South 

6 AM 312 214 396 272 147 216 186 274 

7 AM 407 280 517 355 220 323 279 411 

8 AM 551 379 700 481 403 593 512 753 

9 AM 743 510 943 648 642 943 815 1,198 

10 AM 935 642 1,187 815 898 1,321 1,141 1,677 

11 AM 1,007 691 1,278 878 1,174 1,725 1,490 2,190 

12 N 1,246 856 1,582 1,086 1,320 1,941 1,676 2,463 

1 PM 1,462 1,004 1,856 1,275 1,485 2,183 1,886 2,771 

2 PM 1,630 1,119 2,069 1,421 1,559 2,291 1,979 2,908 

3 PM 1,774 1,218 2,252 1,546 1,522 2,237 1,932 2,840 

4 PM 1,726 1,185 2,191 1,504 1,320 1,941 1,676 2,463 

5 PM 1,630 1,119 2,069 1,421 1,284 1,887 1,629 2,395 

6 PM 1,606 1,103 2,039 1,400 1,320 1,941 1,676 2,463 

7 PM 1,486 1,020 1,887 1,295 1,229 1,806 1,560 2,292 

8 PM 1,414 971 1,795 1,233 1,008 1,482 1,280 1,882 

9 PM 1,366 938 1,734 1,191 880 1,294 1,117 1,642 

10 PM 1,582 1,086 2,008 1,379 770 1,132 978 1,437 

11 PM 1,582 1,086 2,008 1,379 605 889 768 1,129 

12 M 1,558 1,070 1,978 1,358 477 701 605 890 

Total 23,969 16,458 30,429 20,894 18,336 26,952 23,278 34,215 
In year 2014, when start-up ridership has “ramped up” to full levels, maximum hourly 

passenger volumes are expected to be 1,396 under the DEMU option and 1,773 under the 

EMU option. Both peak hour volumes will occur on Sunday in the southbound direction. 

By 2035, system growth will increase these maximum hourly volumes to 2,291 with 

DEMU equipment or 2,908 with EMU equipment. Again, these peak hourly volumes 

occur on Sunday. Peak volumes on Fridays will be somewhat lower, and occur in the 

northbound direction as more travelers head to Las Vegas for the weekend. 

Assessment of the Operating Plan

The operating proposals contained in the plan appear reasonable, and consistent with 

expectations at this stage of the planning process for a major new transportation service. 

The equipment proposed for use is in service in Europe, and thus does not represent a 

questionable process of reinventing the wheel. The schedules presented, including 

running times and turn-around times at terminals, should be attainable. The proposal to 

have a “hot” trainset available at each end of the line is particularly important since it 

would be key to many types of delays or disruptions that can occur. The operating plan 

does not appear to promise more than the system as described should be able to deliver. 

WSA conducted a limited Web search for specific reports of Regina EMU operations in 

Sweden and Meridian DEMU operations in the United Kingdom. WSA was unable to 

find enough material on the Web to allow it to comment on the service reliability of these 

units. Their manufacturer, Bombardier, would need to provide evidence of their 

reliability to WSA before WSA can comment further. 

WSA did note that Sweden’s SJ Railway announced the purchase of 20 Regina trains for 

intercity service in early 2008. The Meridian trains, British Rail Class 222, have been in 

service since 2004, and are operated by East Midland Trains and Hull Trains. 

The railroad infrastructure as described should be capable of handling the number of train 

movements described. WSA assumes that the simulations done by Bombardier to date 

have confirmed that the crossover spacing is sufficient to accommodate train movements 

on a single track in the event of a disabled train or other disruption that might close one 

track. Since WSA does not know what software was used and has not seen detailed 

results, we can only make an assumption that the system can adequately respond to 

service disruptions. 

The EMU operating plan is based on trains with 675 seats, running at 85% to 92% load 

factors. Applying these load factors to the proposed 20 minute headways (3 trains per 

hour) would result in approximately 1,720 to 1,865 passengers. 

The DEMU option proposes trains with only 478 seats. The stated load factors would 

accommodate 1,220 to 1,320 passengers. 

For the EMU option, the maximum hourly count would occur southbound on Sundays 

with 1,773 riders in 2014 and 2,908 in 2035. Thus, the 20 minute headways would 
accommodate the projected maximum hourly volume in 2014 but would fall short in 

2035. 

The DEMU option would present a maximum hourly count of some 1396 to 2291 in the 

two forecast years. Thus, the DEMU service with 20 minute headways would not meet 

anticipated peak hour demand. 

However, both equipment types would easily satisfy demand during all but the two or 

three peak hours on Sunday. The operating plan does not specify pricing strategies or 

reservation requirements. However, it is assumed that DXE would adjust pricing to 

charge more during these peak periods in order to both generate maximum revenue and to 

limit ticket sales to available capacity during peak hours on Friday and Sunday 

afternoons. 

DEMU equipment will require refueling. Since DXE will only be utilizing all available 

train sets during the peak afternoon periods, it will have ample opportunity to cycle the 

trainsets into service on a schedule that allows all refueling to take place at the 

maintenance facility in Victorville. No refueling should be necessary at the terminal 

stations. 

Our primary concern is that there is no specific assessment in the operating plan to 

demonstrate the ability of the stations to handle the anticipated passenger volumes. This 

concern relates to vehicular access, parking, and station passenger amenities. The system 

is proposed as a self-supporting commercial venture, and as such we must assume that 

the owners/operators would make every effort to ensure that these concerns are met with 

minimal impact on local communities and in a manner that makes the total trip (access 

from the home end, the station experience, the train trip, and the transfer to 

accommodations in Las Vegas) convenient for the passengers. More attention to these 

concerns is needed than has been shown in the operating plan since they are an integral 

part of the total trip. 

On weekends, and particularly Sunday when the greatest number of passengers would be 

returning from Las Vegas to the Los Angeles basin, train headway is proposed to be as 

short as every 20 minutes, with only 20 minutes allowed between arrival and departure 

times of each equipment set. During this brief 20 minutes, the following events must 

occur: 

• Potentially 675 passengers2

 need to exit the arriving train, some carrying luggage. 

• Containerized checked baggage must be removed from the train and either 

delivered to hotels or claimed by passengers. 

• A service crew must board the train and undertake a quick trash collection, light 

cleaning, and check for readiness for the next departure. 

 

2

 675 is the capacity of each train. At peak travel times, occupancy over 90% is anticipated. Travel 

volumes in the opposite direction will be somewhat lower because peak travel in each direction will occur 

on different days. 
• Any food or beverage items planned to be available for passengers must be loaded 

or restocked. 

• Checked baggage needs to be received from arriving passengers or hotels, placed 

in containers, and loaded onboard the train. 

• Up to 675 passengers need to board the waiting train, some carrying luggage. 

WSA is concerned that this level of activity may be too much to accomplish within the 

brief 20 minute layover planned for most train sets. A more detailed analysis of 

passenger, luggage, and service movements needs to be done to demonstrate the ability of 

the system (including station design) to accommodate this level of activity over the 3 to 5 

peak hours when 20 minute headways3 are planned. 

The Operations Plan includes anticipated employment by function and number. We 

assume that the sponsors have estimated needed employee levels as closely as possible, 

and would make any appropriate adjustments when service begins to maintain a 

competitive level of service. 

 

3 It should be noted that the two-track stations could accommodate 20 minute headways with station dwell 

times of 35 to 40 minutes, should the 20 minute goal be difficult to maintain. One train would arrive on 

one track, while the second train would arrive on the second track 20 minutes later. Each train would leave 

40 minutes after arrival, and would be immediately replaced by another incoming train set. This pattern of 

operation would require additional train sets and a high level of operating precision.