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Cover photo courtesy of Northwest Arkansas Times, Fayetteville, Arkansas.
Distribution of Employment Growth in 10 Ozaric Counties: A Case Study,

by Victor J. Oliveira and John A. Kuehn, Agriculture and Rural

Economics Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. Rural Development Research Report No. 66.

Abstract

Service industries, some manufacturing, and a concentration of retirees

can provide a strong economic base for a rural area. Rapid growth of

service businesses, especially wholesale and retail firms and other

businesses related to tourism and recreation, attracted job-seekers to a

10-county area in the Ozark Mountains of Arkansas and Missouri during

1978-84. Newcomers were better educated and held higher paying jobs

than long-term residents. The recreation businesses provided increased

job opportunities for youths but tended to pay low wages and be

seasonal, based on tourism patterns. Manufacturing industries provided

about a fourth of the jobs in the area, many of them higher paying than

jobs in the service sector. The area also benefited from the stable incomes and buying patterns of retirees who made up 33 percent of the

adult residents.

Keywords: Inmigrants, rural employment growth, rural labor force,

women, youth, tourism, retirees, service businesses, recreation

Acknowledgments

This study benefited greatly from the generous contributions of Donald

Larson, James Schaub, Robert Coltrane, and Thomas Carlin who shared

their experiences from two previous studies of the distribution of

employment growth in Kentucky and Georgia. This study depended

heavily on the support of James Perry of the Missouri Cooperative Extension Service and J. B. Williams of the Arkansas Cooperative Extension

Service and also on the support of numerous civic and business leaders

in the study area.

Dave Frank, Shirley Zonner, Douglas Kleweno, and Bernard McCullough

of the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) helped develop

sample survey materials. Barry Boyd and Donald Bay of the Missouri

NASS office and Don Von Steen of the Arkansas NASS office supervised

data collection. The authors appreciate the data collection efforts of the

enumerators and the support and cooperation of businesses, local

governments, and residents of the study area who cooperated in the

survey. David Hopkins prepared the variance program used in the

statistical hypothesis testing. Lindsay Mann provided editorial

assistance. Jackey Brown typed the report.

Washington, DC 20005-4788 May 1987
Contents

Page

Summary ...... iii

Glossary iv

Intrucfüction 1

Background 1

Study Area 3

Survey Design 3

Study Area's EGonomfand People.. 6

Industrial StruetuTe 6

Area Residents ................. ........................ 9

Employment Growthy. 10

Sources of New Jobs 10

Numbers and Tyf>es of Jobs .11

The tnflAjence ofMüWiestablishment Firms 12

The Recreation Industry 13

Employment by Population Groups ........... 13

Long-Term Residents and Inmigfants ..... 15

Retired Persons 17

Men and Women 18

Youths and Older Wofl<ers ...... 19

Recent Entrants 21

Roles of GovernmentJn Employment Growth ........ 22

Government as an Employer ,22

Government as a Source of Capital .23

Employment Services and Training r 24

Government Infrastructure 24

Potential Labor Force 25

Implications 26

References .28

Appendix A: Survey Design and Procedures .30

Appendix 6: Calculalion of Variance Statistics .33
Summary

Service industries, some manufacturing, and a

concentration of retirees can provide a strong

economic base in a rural area. Rapid growth of

service businesses, especiaily wtiolesale and

retail firms and other businesses related to

tourism and recreation, attracted job-seekers to

a 10-county area in the Ozark IVIountains of Arkansas and Missouri during 1978-84.

Newcomers were better educated and held higher

paying jobs than long-term residents. The recreation businesses provided increased job opportunities for youths but tended to pay low wages

and be seasonal, based on tourism patterns.

IVIanufacturing industries provided about a fourth

of the jobs in the area, many of them higher paying than jobs in the service sector. The area also

benefited from the stable incomes and buying

patterns of retirees who made up 33 percent of

the area's adult residents. Government played a

minor role in the area's economic expansion.

Although recreation-based businesses

accounted for 15 percent of the establishments and 16 percent of the jobs in

the area, the firms tended to be small,

to offer mostly part-time jobs, and to

change ownership often. However,

these businesses provided jobs for

youths and those entering the labor

force.

IVIanufacturing plants are important to

an area's economic growth because

they tend to provide higher paying jobs.

Retirees provide stable ir^come and

spending pattern^s to a community, but

they can strain a community's services.

Demands on medical facilities, housing, and transportation increase as the

elderly proportion of the population increases.

Economic expansion in the area was dominated

by wholesale and retail trade, services, and

tourism-related businesses. Twenty-eight percent

of the area's establishments opened for business

after 1970; another 23 percent expanded since

1978. Service-sector industries accounted for 85

percent of the new and 76 percent of the expanding businesses.

Here are the principal findings of this study:

• Inmigrants tended to be better trained

than long-term residents and, thus, to

get better paying professional and

executive jobs, increased job training is

one way to promote local residents'

opportunities for higher paying jobs.

• Government played a minor role in the

area's economic growth. Few local

businesses used government funds to

expand or get started. Few members of

the local labor force had governmentsponsored training.

This study looks at a rural area in which tourism

contributed significantly to the local economy to

determine which industries provided what kinds of

jobs, who got the jobs, and how economic growth

affected the area's residents. The 10-county area

was chosen to study the effects of rapid growth in

a non metro area with many retirees and many

businesses based on tourism. This study is the

third of three in a series of regional studies of the

effects of rural economic growth.

ni
Glossaiy

Statistiear testing and survey design:

Signifioani differencB—

The difference between two variables is statisticaliy significant at the 95-percent cofifidence

level when the probabMity ¡s 5 percent or iess

that the observed difference between the two

variables would be this large or larger by

chance. The variables tested were^lnlhe form

of totals, ratios, percentages, and dallar values.

Survey sample designsArea frame. The area frame consisted of a

two-stage stratified cluster sample, where

the first stage involved sampling geographic

segments and the second stage involved

sampling establishments and households.

The area frame provided a sample of establishments and households not identified by

the list frame. The area frame and list frame

together represented the total population of

establishments and households.

List frame. The list frame sample was drawn

frojTT a list of nonfarm private-sector establishments and government units located in

the 10-county area. A subsample of employees

was drawn from the surveyed list frame establishments, becoming the list frame sample of

households.

Employers, private and putiHc sectors, and

related terms:

Esiad/ZsAmenf—

An establishment is an économie Unit,

generally located at a single building site

where business Is conducted or^here services or Industrial operations are performed.

In some cases, for example contractors, ihe

establisliment may have work crews at varying locations. A firm may consista of one cr

more such units.

Types of establistiments—

G0ocfe-produe//7g. Establishments in the

private sector engaged in construction, mining, and manufacturing activities/ Farms

wereexcluded from thelist of estabüshments.

Services-producing. Establishmants in the

private sector engaged in wholesale and

retail trade; transportation, comrnunlcations,

and public utilities (TCPU)- finance, insurance, and ngal estate (FIRE); and all other

services, including hotels, personal,

business, amusement, health, legal, education, and social services.

Government. Civilian Federal, State, county,

city, town, or special purpose governmental

units. A unit of government or a nonprofit

organization funded completely or primarily

by Federal, State, or local government which

has sufficient management over its own affairs or taxing authority to distinguish it from

the administrative structure of other governmental units. Except for U.S. Army Corps of

Engineers' reservoir offices, military units

were excluded from the survey.

Recreation. Eating and drinking places, lodging places, museums, and amusement and

recreation services, including motion

pictures.

Size of establistiment—

No paid employees. Those establishments

totally operated by self-employed owners or

partners in June 1984 and referred to as

establishments with no paid employees at

the time of the interview. Some of these

establishments had paid employees in 1978.

SmaiL Those units that employed fewer than

20 paid worl^ers in June 1984.

Large. Those units that employed 20 or more

paid^orkers in June 1984.

Establisliment wage levels—

Mean-wage establistiments. The average

weekly wages paid full-time workers in the

mean wage establishments ranged from $215

to $262 in June 1984. The authors calculated

this wage by adding and subtracting 10 percent of the mean weekly wage of $238 paid

full-time workers by all establishments.

Low-wage establishments. The average

weekly wage paid full-time workers was less

than $215 in June 1984.

High-wage establtsJiments. The average

weekly wage paid full-time workers was

greater than $262 In June 1984.

Structtire or age of establishment—

Multiestabtistimenis. Private-sector

businesses wiih two or more establishments,

plants, branch offlees, or outlets for

business. Data presented under muitlestalD-

!V
lishments represent only information collected from the.unit surveyed.

New establishments. Establishments which

began operation in the 10-county area after

1978.

Ongoing establishments. Establishments

which began operation in the 10-county area

during or before 1978.

Establishment employment change, 1978-84—

Growth. Establishments that increased

employment by one or more persons between 1978 and 1984.

No-growth. Establishments where employment levels declined or did not change between 1978 and 1984.

Population and employee-related terms:

Household—

A group of persons, not necessarily related by

blood or marriage, whose usual place of

residence is a housing unit, such as a house,

an apartment, a group of rooms, or a single

room occupied as separate living quarters.

Annual household income. All cash income

received during the year by household

members except income received from the

sale of land, buildings, stock, or other capital

assets.

Household member. Any person whose usual

place of residence is in the housing unit that

was surveyed.

Adult—

Any person 16 years of age or older in July

1984.

Labor force—

Includes only the adult population that is

employed or unemployed.

Unemployment rate. The proportion of the

labor force that was unemployed.

Residency status—

Long-term residents. Residents who lived in

the 10-county area continuously between

December 31, 1968, and July 1984, or who

have lived in the 10-county area continuously

since turning 16 years of age.

Early inmigrants. Residents who moved to

the 10-county area between January 1, 1969,

and December 31, 1978.

Recent inmigrants. Residents who moved to

the 10-county area between January 1, 1979,

and July 1984.

Return inmigrants. Residents who had moved

from the 10-county area, lived outside the

area for some time, and then moved back to

the area after January 1, 1969.

New inmigrants. Residents who moved to the

area between January 1, 1969, and July 1984,

and who had not previously lived in the area.

Employment statusFull-time. Wage and salary workers who

worked 30 or more hours per week based on

most recent pay period.

Part-time. Wage and salary workers who

worked less than 30 hours per week based

on most recent pay period.

Recent entrants to the labor force. Persons

who were not in the labor force in 1978 and

who were employed 1 or more weeks in 1983.

Experienced workers. Persons who were

employed 1 or more weeks in 1978 and 1983.

Self-employed. Persons who worked for profit

or fees in their own businesses or professions or on their own farms.

Employed. Persons working for wages or

salaries or who worked in their own businesses or professions or on their own farms.

Unemployed. Persons not working but looking for work or on layoffs waiting to be called

back to a job.

Employment rate. The proportion of the adult

population that was employed.

Occupational groupsExecutive. Managerial, administrative,

engineering, scientific, teaching, and related

occupations, including creative artists, and

nonfarm owner-operators.

Technical. Technicians, clerical, sales, service, farming, forestry, fishing, and hunting

occupations, and persons living in the area

who were in the military.
Production. Manufacturtng, construction,

mining, transport, and related occupations.

Worker ages—

Youths. Persons 16-24 years of age in July

1984.

Prime age workers. Persons 25-49 years of

age In July 1984.

Older workers. Persons 50 years of age and

older in July 1984.

Lmk'WQge workers—

Persons who were sampled from the list

frame establishments surveyed and whfo were

worthing for wages and salaries 1 or more

weeks in 1984. Establishment data linked to

the worker are for the unrtt from which the

worker was selected in 1984.

Retffemeni statusRetired person. Was sejf-determ i^ned by

respondents. A person might be retired irom

one job and currently working at arvotherjob.

fîef/recf/îO(ysê/?0/Êf. A household where the

head or the spouse of the head oftiousehold

is retired.

VI
Distribution of Employment Growtli

in 10 Ozark Counties:

A Case Study

Victor J. Ollvetra and John A. Kuehn*

Introduction

In 1984, almost one quarter of the Nation's

population lived in nonmetro areas (24)J The

labor force experiences and income situation of

these nonmetro people differ significantly from

their metro counterparts. Historically, the labor

force participation rate and the median income of

families in nonmetro areas have been considerably lower (79, 22),

Several Federal economic development programs

have been implemented in rural areas to improve

the economic well-being of local residents. The

Rural Development Act of 1972 and the Rural

Development Policy Act of 1980 had explicit

goals for creating jobs and increasing the incomes of rural residents (32, 34). The rationale

behind these programs has been that new

employment opportunities in rural areas will

benefit rural residents and disadvantaged groups.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) initiated a series of surveys and studies of the

economic growth process in rural areas as part of

its Federal mandate to promote and monitor rural

development and growth (6, 20\. The purpose of

these growth studies was to determine the distribution of employment and income resulting

from different types of economic growth among

various population groups.

^Victor Oliveira is an economist witli the Agriculture and

Rurai Economics Division, Economic Research Service, U.S.

Department of Agriculture. John Kuehn was an economist

with the Agriculture and Rural Economics Division, Economic

Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and served

as project leader prior to his resignation.

italicized numbers in parentheses cite sources in the

reference section at the end of this report.

This study, third in a series of three, was conducted in a 10-eounty area in northwest Arkansas

and southwest Missouri during a period of rapid

employment growth in the area. This study had

three major objectives:

• To identify the employment contributions associated with different types of

establishments;

• To measure the distribution of jobs in

an economic area among various popuiation subgroups, including men and

women, youths and older workers,

inmlgrants and long-term residents,

and retirees;

• To analyze the roJes of government in

the economic growth process.

Information in this report should prove usefui to

economic development agencies, government

program managers, and local leaders In planning

effective rural development strategies in similar

areas.

Background

Data on the distributional effects of economic

development are needed to properly formulate

and evaluate alternative rural development

strategies. Surveys of rural households, private

sector establishments, and governmental units

are particularly usefui because they can help us

understand the effects of economic development

on rural populations. The data of this study

directly relate the characteristics of employees to
the industries in which they work in order to identify industry types most beneficial for rurai

development.

in 1979, USDA*s Economic Research Service

(ERS) began a series of three studies<^f the

distributional effects of economic deveJopment In

non metro areas. The overail pian was to identi^fy

a number of smaii geographic areas which

typified gênerai economic conditions rn nonmetro

areas. This Identification process is necessary

because nonmetro communities d iffer I n industriai base, racial and ethnic traits? and other

demographic characteristics of the population.

One community cannot represent allofihe

nonmetro U.S. population but can typify substan*

tial segments of that population. The relationships generated in each study wlli hold for other

nonmetro communities with similar attributes.

The same general survey and samplingf procedures were used in each study to permit comparison of results among different areas.

The first study was conducted In a nine-county

area of southern Kentucky, formerly a persistently

low-income Appalachian area which had experienced considerable growth in a variety of

manufacturing industries and in mining |i^. We

were especially interested In migrants and

women in this study. The second study was conducted in a 10-county area of Georgia^i^ 20).

This area differed significantly from Kèrïtuçky

because it contained a substantial blacKpopûlâtion and was an important commercial agricultural areai. Manufacturing was also important in

the economy of the Georgia study area.

This study oovers a lO-county area of sottthwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkàn;Éas,

formerly a persistently low-inoome Ozarks area,

which continijes to grow subétantially in population, tourist industries, and retirement settlements. Retirees and recreational establishments

and their employees are key target populations of

interest In this study. A previous USDA study

identified 21 percent of ail nonmetro counties as

retirement counties (4). In these areas, 15 percent

or more of the net inmlgration between 1970 and

1980 were people 60 years or older. TWe Importance of retirees to local, rural economies has

warranted much attention from researchers (5, 7,

8, 11, Ï2, ^i). Retirees receive money fröm pensions, government transfers, investments, and

savings, much of which is spent in the local

economy, creating a demand for goods and services (21). This demand for goods and services

creates jobs in the area. Retirees also spend

more on food, medical care, entertainment, and

recreation than do younger people (5). As a result,

the service industry should be a large source of

income in these areas. Because retirement income is more stable than employment income,

retirement communities should be less affected

by recessions than other communities (5).

The first objective of this study, identifying the

employment contributions associated with different

types of establishments, is very basic because

knowing the source of jobs and the characteristics

of establishments creating jobs in rural areas is

important. The relative importance of establishment age, size, industry, and wage levels in

generating employment opportunities has been

debated. Good information on this issue is essential for formulating rural development strategies

and allocating financial resources. Individual entrepreneurs may be able to identify new business

opportunities, and job seekers will benefit from

knowing which industries are expanding.

The second objective, measuring the distribution

of jobs in an economic-growth area among

various population subgroups, adds to limited information about how the benefits of economic

growth are distributed among rural people. Certain groups historically have been disadvantaged

in job opportunities and economic progress.

Other groups have faced serious disruptions from

changing industrial structures and population

movements. We have limited knowledge about

how jobs In growth areas are distributed among

women, youth, and the elderly. Nor do we know

the extent to which long-term residents and inmigrants compete for jobs, in particular the

higher paying jobs.

The third objective, analyzing the roles of government in economic growth, is included because

government makes an important contribution to

rural job creation. Some of these roles are exclusively the sphere of the public sector (public

safety) while other public sector functions (education, job placement services) overlap and supplement functions performed in the private sector

(loans, health care). To formulate effective

policies for rural development, government officials need to know which public sector activities are relied upon by private entrepreneurs

starting or expanding businesses. Job-training

programs and placement services should help

disadvantaged and unemployed people get jobs.

Many people believe government involvement in

capital markets is essential for economic

development, but we have little evidence to
assess rural employers' dependence on publicly

aided capital. Federal, State, and local spending

decisions for the broad goals of rural development could be improved with better understanding of which programs have had the greatest

effects.

Study Area

A 10-county area in the Ozarks' upper White River

basin was selected as the study site. This area includes Baxter, Boone, Carroll, Marion, Newton,

and Searcy counties in Arkansas and Barry, Ozark,

Stone, and Taney counties in Missouri (fig. 1).

We used four criteria in selecting the study site.

First, the chosen area had to have had high

population and employment growth rates during

the 1970's. The study area had a 43-percent increase in population and a 41-percent increase in

employment during the 1970's. Second, the area

had to be a retirement center attracting retirees

from a wide region. In the study site, the population age 60 or more years old increased 49 percent during the 1970's and represented 27 percent

of the total 1980 population. The 1970's net immigration rate of persons who were 60 years old

or over in 1980 was 53 percent and amounted to

14,700 people.2 Third, the area had to be a

tourism center. In the study area, wage and

salaried employment in eating and drinking

places, lodging places, museums, and amusement and recreation services increased 102 percent during the 1970's and constituted 12 percent

of the area's total salaried employment in 1980.

Fourth, the area had to be a relatively selfcontained labor market. This criterion increased

the probability that workers in the area would

also live in the area, thus assuring an analysis of

the distribution of employment growth among different segments of the resident population

without undue survey costs. We used 1970

commuting-to-work data, the latest available at

the time the study site was chosen. About 5 percent of the area's workers commuted into the

area, and about 8 percent of the area's residents

worked outside the 10-county study site.

The Ozarks' White River area is a well-known

tourism and retirement area in the Midwest. A

series of dams on the upper White River have

fashioned a sequence of large lakes amid the

rugged Ozark Mountains. One of these, Lake

Taneycomo, features a large trout fishery.

Besides numerous country music shows, the area

also has two large amphitheaters featuring

dramatic presentations. Two large amusement

parks are also in the area, Dogpatch USA and

Silver Dollar City, featuring not only amusement

rides but also many mountain artisans. Eureka

Springs, Arkansas, presents interesting architecture clinging to mountain sides. Larger commercial centers include the cities of Harrison and

Mountain Home in Arkansas and Monett and

Branson in Missouri with respective 1980 populations of 9,567; 8,066; 6,148; and 2,550.

Survey Design

A major objective of the study was to identify

new and existing sources of employment and to

learn how these job opportunities were distributed among population subgroups. This study

required a survey design which would collect

data from both establishments and households

and would directly link employees and their

households with their employers. To account for

all workers and all households in the area, the

sample included small businesses with no paid

employees and househoids with no workers. We

used two questionnaires and two surveys to collect data, one for establishments and one for

households. The questionnaires were adaptable

to the varying circumstances of establishments

and households.^

The sampling procedure for establishments required a complete list of employers and businesses in the 10-county site.-* We compiled the

list from telephone directories. State directories

of manufacturers, U.S. Bureau of the Census lists

of local governments, and various trade and

government directories. This list was stratified by

industry and number of employees, and researchers randomly selected a fraction of the employers

in each stratum for interviews. Enumerators

visited the selected establishments in June 1984.

The establishment questionnaire elicited data on

the date the responding private establishment or

^Based on unpublished estimates of net migration of persons of retirement age prepared by Calvin L. Beale of the

Agriculture and Rural Economics Division, Economic

Research Service, USDA, from data from the 1970 and 1980

Censuses of Population.

^Fof more information on the survey design, see (6, 20).

"^Churches, private households employing workers, and

military units (other than U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' installations) were not included in the establishment universe.

Farms and farm operators were not sampled as establishments

but were eligible for household interviews. See app. A for

details.
Figure 1

The 10-County Ozark Study Site

Kansas City

St. Louis
government unît began operation in the 10-county

area; legal organization; primary product produced

or service provided; current and 1978 employment, payrolls, and revenues; occupations of

employees distributed by sex of employee and by

full-time and part-time employment; wages paid

to occupation groups; fringe benefits; turnover

and vacancy problems; use of Comprehensive

Employment and Training Act (CETA) or similarly

subsidized workers; sources of new hires; and

sources of funds for starting or expanding operations. Data for 1978 provided a base for measuring growth. We believed that 5 years was enough

time for growth to occur and for its effects to be

distributed throughout the economy.

The direct linkage, or cross-referencing, of

workers' households with their employers used

data obtained from a random sample of employees whose names and addresses came from interviewed list frame employers. Enumerators

selected this sample of employees from employment rolls to form the list frame sample of

households. Enumerators interviewed these

workers and members of their households at their

homes using the household questionnaire. Thus,

we linked information about working residents

with information about their employers.

Area frame samples of establishments and

households supplemented the list frames in two

ways. First, the area frame sample of establishments accounted for incompleteness of the

employer universe list. Although we attempted to

prepare a list that included all establishments,

some establishments were not on the list.

Enumerators attempted to contact any establishment found in the sampled land segments that

was not on the universe list. Second, we used the

household area frame to sample households

which would not be eligible for sampling through

the list frame, such as households with no

employed members, households whose employed

members worked in establishments within the

study area but not on the universe list of

establishments, or worked ¡n establishments outside the study area.^

Enumerators interviewed list frame and area

frame households in July 1984 using the household questionnaire. Data collected included

household composition and demographics, including age, sex, relationship to the head of the

household, educational attainment, marital status,

^Details on the survey design, stratification, sampling rates,

and response rates are presented in app. A.

and health status. All persons interviewed who

were 16 years and older were asked about their

labor force and employment status in 1978 and

1983 and at the time of the interview in July 1984.

Interviewers obtained occupation, employing industry, hours and >weeks worked, and wa^e rates

for those working. For those not working in 1978

or 1983 or at the tirtie of interview in July 1984,

enumerators collected information on primary activity, reasons for not working, and job search efforts. Interviewers asked all adults about participation in job training programs and migration

to the study site. Each household reported

whether any member had operated a farrjn in 1983

or 1978. Interviewers asked each household a

series of questions on sources and amounts of

income and participation in public assistance

and food programs in 1983 and 1978.

Establishments furnished 617 completed reports.

A total of 1,159 households containing 2,878 persons completed interviews. These counts

represented an 82-percent completion rate for

establishments and an 80-percent completion

rate for households.

We measured the establishments and households

in the study area as they existed at the time of

the survey, during the height of the tourist

season. Approximately 9.5 percent of the area's

establishments operated no more than 8 months

a year; two-thirds of these were recreation-based

businesses. Enumerators asked both establishments and households to recall their circumstances in 1978.^

Because the data were derived from a survey

rather than a complete census, all estimates of

totals, proportions, and means in this report are

subject to sampling error. Although a given

estimate differs between two or more subpopulations or variables, the differences may not be

statistically significant due to sample variation.

We will restrict discussion that compares differences of subpopulations to those comparisons

which are statistically significant at the

95-percent confidence level, unless otherwise

noted. We did not attempt statistical testing

^Interviews with current populations cannot fully describe

the 10-county economy as it existed in 1978 because some

establishments closed or moved away between 1978 and the

time of interview, and some people left the area. The study

measured and analyzed the establishments and households

remaining from 1978 and newcomers to the area. The survey

design did not allow data collection from establishments and

households that came into the study site after 1978 but were

no longer there in 1984.
where the number of sample establishments,

households, or persons associated with a given

attribute was less than 30. The tables show when

establishment, household, and person estimates

were based on fewer than 10 sample observations. Such estimates typically have very large

standard errors and should be interpreted with

care. Appendix B explains the statistical tests.

Study Area's Economy and People

ERS selected this Ozark study area because it

was a fast-growing rural economy with a tourism

and retirement industry base. The substantial

population of retirees allowed us to analyze how

growth affects retirees.

Industrial Structure

The 10-county area's industrial structure was

dominated by the services-producing sector and,

In particular, wholesale and retail trades and services. About a fifth of the area's trades and service establishments catered primarily to tourism:

eating and drinking places, lodging places,

museums, and amusement and recreational services. Over 90 percent of the area's establishments had fewer than 20 employees. Over a

third of the establishments had no paid

employees. Self-employed workers accounted for

13 percent of the area's nonfarm employment.

The majority of establishments paid average

wages of less than $215 per week. About 28 percent of the establishments were started after

1978, and another 10 percent had changed ownership between 1978 and 1984. An additional 22 percent of the area's establishments started

business between 1974 and 1978. Approximately

one-eighth of the wage and salary workers were

employed part-time, less than 30 hours per week,

during the summer of 1984. Recreation establishments were also affected by seasonal operations with 42 percent of them operating no more

than 8 months per year.

Data from the establishment survey represented

an estimated 7,180 private sector estabiishments

and 500 government units (table 1). Both Missouri

and Arkansas have special purpose districts which

account, in part, for the large number of government units.7 These 7,180 private establishments

^Establishment data in this report exclude military and

armed forces reserve installations except for Corps of

Engineers' reservoir project offices.

Table 1--Distribution of estimated establishments and employment, by selected characteristics, June 1984

Item! Establishments

Employment

Total Wage and salary

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Type of establishment:

Goods-producing

Construction, mining

Manufacturing

910

450

460

11.8

5.8

6.0

17,470

2,350

15,120

27.6

3.7

23.9

Services-producing

Wholesale, retail trade

TCPU and FIRE^

Other services^

6,270

2,540

920

2,810

81.7

33.1

12.0

36.6

38,500

16,240

6,470

15,790

60.8

25.7

10.2

24.9

Government^ 500 6.5 7,360 11.6

Recreation^ 1,160 15.1 10,050 15.9

Size of establishment:

No paid employees®

1-19 paid employees

20 or more paid employees

2,710

4,440

530

35.3

57.8

6.9

4,490

22,400

36,440

7.1

35.4

57.5

Total 7,680 100.0 63,330 100.0

16,490

1,840

14,650

30.1

3.4

26.7

30,990

13,190

5,750

12,050

56.5

24.1

10.5

21.9

7,360 13.4

8,370 15.3

18,540

36,300

33.8

66.2

54,840 100.0

— = Not applicable.

1 Establishments are those operating both in June 1984 and in 1983. Employees are June 1984 employees at these

establishments.

2TCPU is transportation, communications, and public utilities; FIRE Is finance, insurance, and real estate.

^Includes hotels, personal, business, amusement, health, legal, education, and social services.

^Includes Federal, State, county, city, town, or special purpose government agencies.

^Recreation totals are also included In retail trade and other services.

^Includes establishments operated by self-employed owners or partners with no paid employees.
were operated by 8,490 self-employed persons

and 54,840 wage and salary workers. Trades and

services, including recreation, accounted for 82

percent of the establishments, 88 percent of the

self-employed, and 57 percent of the wage and

salary workers. Recreation alone accounted for

15 percent of the area's establishments, 20 percent of the self-employed, and 15 percent of the

hired workers. The 500 government units in the

area accounted for only 13 percent of the wage

and salary workers. Three-fourths of the government workers were employed by local government

units including public school districts.

The 10-county area's economic base also

included a sizable manufacturing component.

Some 460 manufacturing establishments

employed 27 percent of the area's hired workers.

The area's emphasis on trades, services,

manufacturing, and self-employed owneroperators differed from the overall U.S. nonmetro

employment mix.^

Ninety-three percent of the establishments were

small, employing fewer than 20 workers or with

no paid employees and supplying 34 percent of

the area's wage and salary jobs (table 1). Most of

the wage and salary employment was concentrated in the 7 percent of establishments that

employed 20 or more workers. Manufacturing

establishments and government units had the

greatest average size, 32 and 15 paid employees,

respectively. Trade and service establishments

were among the smallest. These two industry

groups had over 2,100 establishments with no

paid employees. These generally provided

employment only for establishment owners and

their unpaid family workers.

The area's new business growth was strong between 1974 and 1984. Fifty percent of the area's

establishments were new starts since 1974. New

business growth was most prevalent in construction, recreation, trades, and personal, business,

and repair services. Only 21 percent of the construction establishments were in operation before

1974 with the same ownership. Similarly, the

shares for establishment age were 28 percent for

recreation; 36 percent for other trades, and 29

percent for personal, business, and repair services. These figures may reflect both the recent

growth and the short lifespan of these industries.

In contrast, nearly 50 percent or more of the

establishments in manufacturing, professional

services, and in the finance, insurance, and real

estate (FIRE) industries had existed more than 10

years.

Seventy-five percent of the nonfarm jobs provided

by the area's establishments were full-time wage

and salary positions in the summer of 1984. Selfemployed owners held 13 percent of the area's

nonfarm jobs.^ About 15 percent of the wage and

salary jobs were held by executives, managers,

and professionals. Nearly 44 percent were held by

technical workers, sales and service workers, and

clerks. And the remaining 41 percent were in production and related occupations. Servicesproducing industries contained over 50 percent of

the executive-professional occupations, and 80

percent of the technical, sales, and service

workers. Manufacturing plants accounted for

most of the production and related jobs.^o

The average wage paid to full-time workers in the

area's sampled establishments was $238 per

week in 1984 compared with a national average of

$333, both calculated on a 40-hour basis (31),

Low-wage establishments were the predominant

employer among those with full-time workers

(table 2).^i Seventy percent of the establishments

were classified as low-wage, accounting for 51

percent of the full-time wage and salary workers.

Low-wage establishments averaged 8 full-time

employees compared with 16 for mean-wage and

19 for high-wage establishments.

Weekly wages varied across industries and

among establishments within industries. Both the

goods-producing and the services-producing sectors had more establishments and employees in

the low-wage category than did the government

sector. In turn, trades and services other than

transportation, communication, and public

utilities (TCPU) and finance, insurance, and real

^In 1982, nonfarm self-enriployed workers constituted 9 percent of the total U.S. nonmetro employment. Forty-six percent

of the wage and salary workers in nonmetro areas were in

trades and services, 24 percent were in manufacturing, and 19

percent were in government (27).

^Self-employed farmers are not included in establishmentrelated tables. They were surveyed only through the

household survey.

" ^See the glossary for details about the specific occupations making up each aggregate group. All occupational aggregations were based on the groupings found in the 1977

Standard Occupational Classification Manual (29).

^""The wage classifications, low-, mean-, and high-wage,

refer only to relative wage levels of establishments in the

area. The classification is not intended to indicate wage differences of establishments within and outside the area. Fulltime employees in low-wage establishments received weekly

wages averaging less than $215 per week, full-time employees

in mean-wage establishments received weekly wages averaging

$215-$262 per week, and full-time employees in high-wage

establishments received weekly wages averaging more than

$262.
CO

Table 2—Average weekly wage levels of full-time wage and salary workers in private sector nonfarm establishments and government units, June 1984

Total

Goods producers Services producers

Item Total Construction,

Manufacturing Total Wholesale,

retail trade

TCPU

FIRE^

Other

services^

Recreation^ Government'*

mining

Number

Establishments^ 4,320 540 220 320 3,410 1.590

Percent

600 1,220 600 370

Low-wage (less than

$215 per week)

Mean-wage ($215-

$262 per week)

High-wage (more

than $262 per week)

69.8

14.4

15.8

62.6

26.9

10.5

49.76

36.96

13.46

71.4

20.2

8.46

74.3

12.5

13,2

76.4

14.6

9.0

Number

50.8

11.96

37.3

83.0

10.1

6.96

93.4

4.56

2.16

39.2

13.2

47.6

Full-time wage and

salary workers^ 47,840 16,120 1,740 14,380 25,470 10,370

Percent

5,430 9,670 6,180 6,250

Low*wage (less than

$215 per week)

Mean-wage ($215-

$262 per week)

High-wage (more

than $262 per week)

51.0

21.4

27.6

48.9

28.6

22.5

22.06

61.36

I6.76

52.2

24.6

23.26

58.0

15.4

26.6

66.0

20.6

13.4

13.3

9.16

77.6

74.4

13,4

12.26

96.5

2,96

.66

28.0

27.3

44.7

1TCPU is transportation, communications, and public utilities; FIRE is finance, insurance, and real estate.

^Includes hotels, personal, business, amusement, health, legal, education, and social services.

^Recreation totals are also included in trades and other services.

"^Includes Federal, State, county, city, town, or special purpose government agencies.

^Includes only establishments with full-time wage and salary workers.

6Estimate based on fewer than 10 unweighted observations.

^Represents workers working 30 or more hours per week.
estate (FIRE) had more employees in low-wage

categories tlian did goods producers. Other services (business, personal, repair, and professional)

also had more establishments classified as lowwage than did goods producers. Much of this

classification of services producers can be explained by the recreation industry in which 93

percent of the establishments and 97 percent of

the employees were in low-wage categories. The

recreation industry accounted for 13 percent of

full-time employees, and 24 percent of the fulltime service employment.

New jobs added during the previous 5-1/2 years

furnished about 30 percent of the area's 1984

hired employment. Forty-five percent of the new

jobs came in establishments starting operations

in the area after 1978, and the rest were additions

to older establishments. Twenty-eight percent of

the establishments in 1984 were new to the area

since 1978. Most of the new establishments were

services producers, but some new goods producers also appeared. Surviving older establishments tended to have stable or decreasing

employment. These establishments accounted for

69 percent of the area's 1984 employment. Only

37 percent of the older establishments with the

same ownership in 1978 and 1984 reported more

employees in 1984 than in 1978.

Area Residents

Data from the household sample represented

72,410 households and 176,040 persons (table 3).

Older residents and retirees accounted for a large

portion of the population in the 10-county area.

Almost 35 percent of the area's residents were 55

years of age or older compared with 21 percent of

the total U.S. population (24). About 33 percent of

the area's adults (16 years of age or older) were

retired. The head of the household or the head's

spouse was retired in 44 percent of the area's

households. Because retirees are generally older,

and women outnumber men in the older age

groups, one might expect females to outnumber

males among retirees. The opposite was true in

the 10-county study area. In this study, retirement

status was self-determined by the respondents.

Because many of the older women in the study

area had never been employed outside the home,

they apparently did not consider themselves

"retired" from a job.

Almost 48 percent of the adult population were

inmigrants, having moved to the area sometime

after 1968. As a group, these inmigrants had lived

Table 3—Characteristics of the study area's population,

July 1984

Item Total Nonretirees Retirees

Number

Estimated total persons 176,040 129,170

Percent

46,870

Sex:

Male

Female

48.8

51.2

47.1

52.9

53.4

46.6

Age:

Under 16 years

16-24 years

25-34 years

35-54 years

55-64 years

65 years and older

20.6

10.7

11.5

22,4

12.3

22.5

28.0

14.6

15.7

28.6

8.3

4.8

Years

02

02

02

5.5

23.2

71.3

Mean age 41.0 30.9

Number

69.0

Adult population, 16

years and older 139,860 92,990 46,870

Residency status:^

Long-term resident

Inrhlgrant

72,830

67,030

51,240

41,750

Percent

21,590

25,280

Early inmigrant

Recent inmigrant

52.0

48.0

46.5

53.5

61.2

38.8

Return inmigrant

New inmigrant

20.4

79.6

23.2

76.8

15.7

84.3

Schooling completed:

Less than 12 years

12 years

More than 12 years

35.3

42.4

22.3

29.0

47.9

23.1

years

47.8

31.4

20.8

Mean schooling 11.5 11.8

Number

10.9

Estimated households 72,410 40,480

Persons

31,930

Mean household size 2.4

Mean household income 17,515

Per capita income 7,980

2.8

Dollars

19,337

8,054

1.9

14,776

7,868

1 Long-term residents resided in the study area continuously

between December 31, 1968, and July 1984. Early inmigrants

moved to the study area between January 1, 1969, and

December 31,1978. Recent inmigrants, moved to the study

area between January 1,1979, and July 1984. Return inmigrants, both early and recent inmigrants, had moved from

the study area, lived outside the area for some time, and

then moved back to the area after January 1, 1969. New inmigrants had not previously lived in the area.

^Estimate based on fewer than 10 unweighted observations.
in the area an average of 6.4 years. Forty-eight

percent of these innnigrants were recent inmigrants, having moved to the area after 1978.

Only 20 percent of the inmigrants were return inmigrants, who had once lived in the area, moved

away, and then returned sometime after 1968.

Retired inmigrants were more lil^ely than nonretired inmigrants to have moved into the area

before 1979. However, this does not mean that

there is a decline in the movement of retirees into

the area; the area continues to attract both

retired and nonretired inmigrants, especially the

latter. Among current residents, retired inmigrants averaged 1,546 persons annually during

1969-78, and 1,785 persons annually during

1979-84.12 jhe number of nonretired inmigrants to

the area increased from an average of 1,939 persons annually during 1969-78, to an average of

4,064 persons annually during 1979-84.

The educational structure of the area's population was similar to that of the total U.S. nonmetro

population. Almost 65 percent of the area's

adults graduated from high school compared with

67.5 percent for all nonmetro areas (25)J^ On

average, retirees had lower levels of education

than nonretirees.

The average household size, 2.4 persons, in the

10-county area was smaller than the average 2.8

persons for all nonmetro households in 1983 (26),

This average was due to the large number of

retired households in the area, which averaged

fewer than 2 persons per household. The mean

household income in the study area was $4,045

below the average for nonmetro areas. However,

because of the smaller average size of the study

area's households, per capita income in the

10-county area, $7,980, was slightly greater than

that for all nonmetro areas, $7,828 (261 Although

the mean household income for nonretired

households was significantly greater than that of

retired households, the average per capita income for retired and nonretired households was

not significantly different.

In July 1984, 51.2 percent of the study area's

population was in the labor force, either working

or looking for work, compared with 62.9 percent

"•^Data indicate that the population In the 10-county area increased an average 3.6 percent per year from 1970 to 1980

and an average 1,9 percent from 1980 to 1984. Based on data

furnished by Calvin Beale, ARED, ERS.

^^The educational levels for alt nonmetro areas refer to persons age 18 years and older. In the 10-county study area, 66.8

percent of persons age 18 years and older completed high

school.

of all nonmetro adults (table 4). The lower labor

force participation rate in the study area is

related to the large number of retired persons in

the study area. About 6 percent of the labor force

in the 10-county area was unemployed, lower than

the 7.6-percent rate in all nonmetro areas (27).

Employment growth in the 10-county area

provided opportunities for persons entering the

tabor force. Twenty-two percent of the area's

work force at the time of the survey had not

worked during 1978. These new entrants were

predominantly youths (16-24 years of age), a

group which typically has little prior work experience. Reflecting national trends, 60 percent

of the new entrants of all ages were female (19).

Employment Growth

The Ozark study area has experienced considerable growth in new and expanded

businesses and employment.^'^ Thirty percent of

the wage and salary jobs in the area in 1984 were

created after 1978; 45 percent of these were in

new estabiishments. Expanding older businesses

accounted for the rest. In both cases, most of the

businesses and new jobs were in the servicesproducing sector.

Sources of New Jobs

New jobs result when new establishments open

and existing firms expand. These sources of new

employment provided jobs for new labor force entrants, inmigrants, and displaced workers from

establishments that closed. Twenty-eight percent

^^The survey did not measure decreases In employment

caused by firms going out of business in the area or firms

changing ownership during 1978-84.

Table 4—Labor force status of adult population, July 1984

Item 10-county study area

Number

Adult population

Labor force

Employed

Unemployed

Not in labor force

139,860

71,600

67,350

4,250

68,260

Percent

Labor force participation rate

Unemployment rate

51.2

5.9

10
of the establishments started local operations

between 1978 and 1984 (table 5) and accounted

for 7,540 new wage and salary jobs (table 6).

Development efforts should not look solely to

new establishments for job creation. Ongoing

establishments can expand to generate jobs.

Twenty-three percent of the establishments were

in business in 1978 and expanded to create 9,120

new jobs. Most of the remaining establishments

either had steady or declining employment. Many

were owner-operator businesses with no paid

employees. Only a third had actual declines in

employment. The survey design did not permit

measurement of job losses associated with

businesses which ceased operation before 1984.

Over half of the new establishments and half of

the establishments with no employment increase

had no full-time workers. Nevertheless, those

businesses were important because they provided

jobs for owner-operators and their families, some

part-time jobs for salaried employees, and services to the community. While most of the area's

establishments were in the services-producing

sector, new establishments were even more concentrated in services. Some of these new, small

units may eventually expand employment, but

many will probably remain small, family-operated

businesses. In contrast to new and stable establishments, over three-fourths of the expanding

establishments were small units with 1-19 paid

employees. However, they generated only onethird of the new jobs from expansions. Most of

the expanding establishments paid average weekly

wages of less than $215 (table 5).

Numbers and Types of Jobs

Ongoing establishments created more new wage

and salary jobs than new establishments (table

6). Almost 70 percent of the new jobs created by

expanding establishments were in firms with 20

or more paid employees in June 1984. Community

development strategies need to include assistance for the expansion and retention of existing

businesses. New jobs created by new establishTable 5—Characteristics of study area business establishments, 1984

Establishments Establishments Establishments

with increasing with decreasing for which 1978

New establishments, employment, or steady employ- information was

Item Establishments 1978-84 1978-84 ment. 1978-84 not available''

Number

Total 7,680 2,160 1,760

Percent

3.000 760

Wage category

of estabnshment:^

Low-wage 39.3 36.3 58.6 29.6 41.6

Mean-wage 8.1 6.6 12.2 7.8 3.83

High-wage 8.9 1.03 14.8 12.3 4.03

No full-time workers 43.7 56.1 14.4 50.3 50.6

Type of establishment:

Goods-producing'^ 11.8 13.8 15.9 10.5 1.73

Services-producing^ 81.7 85.6 76.0 78.0 98.3

Government^ 6.5 .63 8.1 11.5 0

Size of establishment

in 1984:

No paid employees 35.3 48.0 4.0^ 41.8 45.9

1-19 paid employees 57.8 49.0 77.9 54.2 50.3

20 or more paid

employees 6.9 3.0 18.1 4.0 3.83

^These establishments changed ownership or management during 1978-84. The 1978 employment was not available for the

establishments.

2Based on average wages paid to full-time workers working 30 or more hours per week.

3Estimate is based on fewer than 10 unweighted observations.

^Includes manufacturing, construction, and mining.

^Includes wholesale and retail trade; transportation, communication, public utilities; finance, insurance, and real estate; hotels,

personal, business, amusement, health, legal, education, and social services.

^Includes Federal, State, county, city, town, or special purpose government agencies.

^These few establishments increased the number of owner-operators working in the business; estimate is based on fewer than

10 unweighted observations.

11
ments were about equally split between large and

small employers. In the study area, many new

small establishments furnished almost as many

new jobs as did a few large new establishments.

In this area, community development strategies

need to focus also on small business assistance.

Most of the new jobs were in the servicesproducing sector. Over a third of the government

units either had decreases or no change in

employment (table 6).

The overall average wage level in the study area

was $238 per week for full-time wage and salary

employees (table 7). Overall wage levels were

comparable among new, expanding, and nonexpanding establishments. Wages differed significantly among major occupational groups, however, with managers and professionals receiving

$368 per week, production workers receiving $229

per week, and sales, clerical, and service workers

receiving $199 per week. These wage differentials

were typical of both expanding and nonexpanding

establishments. For new establishments, however,

production workers and clerical, sales, and service

workers received almost equal pay.

Almost 44 percent of the area*s wage and salary

workers were sales, clerical, and service

employees who were largely in the low-wage

category (table 8). Fifty-seven percent of the area's

workers were employed by the services-producing

sector. New and nonexpanding establishments

had relatively more employees in sales and services than did expanding establishments. Among

ongoing establishments, expanding establishments had a higher proportion of production

workers than did nonexpanding establishments.

Expanding establishments were also larger

employers than new and nonexpanding establishments, probably reflecting the role of manufacturing among expanding establishments. The proportion of males and females was about equal for all

growth categories. And the proportion of part-time

workers, about one-eighth, was also comparable

across industry growth characteristics.

The (nfliience of Multiestabiishment Firms

Multlestablishment firms accounted for only 17

percent of the area's private establishments but

furnished 52 percent of the area's private sector

Table S^Wage and salary employment change, by selected establishment charactertsllcs, 1978-84

Employment change created by—

Item New establishments,

1978-84

Ongoing establishments

with increasing

employment, 1978-84

Ongoing establishments

with decreasing or

steady employment,

1978-84

Number

7,540 9,120

Percent

-2,890

61.0

16.1

18.02

4.9

44.2

31.9

20.5

3.4

44.3

6.1

35.0

14.6

33.7

64.2

2.12

39.1

51.5

9.4

20.2

42.5

37.3

49.7

50.3

32.6

67.4

11.7

22.5

65.8

Total wage and salary jobs

New jobs in establishments

by wage category, 1984:''

Low-wage

Mean-wage

High-wage

No full-time workers

Establishments, by type, 1984:

Goods-producing^

Services-producing"*

Government^

Establishments in 1984 with:

No paid employees

1-19 paid employees

20 or more paid employees

— = Not applicable.

1 Based on average wages paid to full-time workers working 30 or more hours per week.

2Estimate based on fewer than 10 unweighted observations.

^Includes manufacturing, construction, and mining.

^Includes wholesale and retail trade; transportation, communication, public utilities; finance, insurance, and real estate; hotels,

personal, business, amusement, health, legal, education, and social services.

^Includes Federal, State, county, city, town, or special purpose government agencies.

12
wage and salary employment (table 9). Eight percent of the area's establishments reported to a

headquarters office located outside the study area

and furnished 31 percent of the area's private sector jobs. Multiestablishment firms were about

equally represented in both the goods-producing

and the services-producing sectors. However,

multiestablishment firms with branch plants in the

area accounted for 71 percent of the area's

employment in the goods-producing sector. Area

development strategies should be sensitive to

possible location decisions made by outside

manufacturing companies.

The Recreation Industry

Fifteen percent of the area's private establishments were directly oriented to tourism and the

recreation industry (table 10). These businesses included lodging places, campgrounds, restaurants,

cocktail lounges, museums, and amusement and

recreation services including cinemas, music

shows, and theme parks. There appears to be a

high turnover of ownership of recreation businesses, since about a fourth of them had changed

ownership since 1978.

Compared with all other establishments and

government units, recreation establishments were

more likely to be in the low-wage category.

Average weekly wages of full-time employees

were $171 in recreation compared with $249 in

other sectors.^5 In addition, recreation businesses

relied more on part-time workers. More than 20

percent of the recreation wage and salary

employees worked fewer than 30 hours per week.

Employment by Population Groups

Providing more jobs through economic growth is

an important part of many rural development programs. The logic behind thèse programs is that

increased job opportunities lead to higher incomes and generally a better quality of life. An

important question when assessing policies

designed to stimulate economic growth is ''who

benefits from the growth?" That is, how are jobs,

particularly new Jobs, distributed among population subgroups?

We were interested in the following groups: inmigrante and long-term residents, men and

women, youths and older persons, retirees and

rionretirees, and recent labor force entrants and

experienced workers. We used two analytical

methods. The first consisted of presenting the

labor force status of the total set of adults in

each population subgroup and comparing the

characteristics of employed persons. An

estimated 67,350 employed persons lived In the

10-county area in 1984, of which 49,640 were

wage and salary workers.^®

"•^On a 40-hour basis, the national weighted average weekly

wage for eating and drinking places, lodging places, and

amusement and recreation services, excluding motion pictures, was $191 in 1984 (57).

"•^Differences between the establishment and household

survey estimates of employment in the 10-county area result

from the inclusion of farmworkers in the household survey but

not in establishment survey, commuting patterns of workers,

household respondent identification as self-employed even

though working in a family-owned corporation, and differences associated with sampling households in one case

and establishments in the other.

Table 7—Average weekly earnings of wage and salary workers in new and ongoing establishments, 1984

Item

All

establishments

New

establishments,

1978-84

Ongoing establishmentsExpanding

employment Not expanding employment^

Dollars

Overall average weekly wage^ 238 222 235

Werage weekly wage, by

occupation:

Executive, administrative.

managerial, and professional 368 382 367

Technical, marketing, sales,

clerical, and services 199 196 191

Production and related

occupations^ 229 201 222

253

365

210

267

1 Based on wages received by full-time workers in private sector establishments and government agencies. Establishments with

no full-time workers are not included in this table. See table 5 for percentage of establishments with no full-time workers.

2|ncludes construction, mining, manufacturing, transportation and material moving, mechanics and repairers, material handfers,

equipment cleaners, and general laborers.

^Includes both the 760 establishments changing management and the 3,000 establishments with decreasing or steady employment between 1978 and 1984 as listed in table 5.

13
Table 8—Selected characteristics of wage and salary workers in new and ongoing establishments, 1984

Item

All

establishments

New

establishments,

1978-84

Ongoing establishments with—

Expatnding

employment

Stable or declining

employment''

Tota! wage and salary workers^

Sex:

Male

Female

Full-time workers^

Part-time workers

Wage and salary workers in

establishments with:

1-19 paid employees

20 or more paid employees

Wage and salary workers in:

Goods-producing

establishments

Services-producing

establishments

Government^

Wage and salary workers, by

occupation:

Executive, administrative,

managerial, and professional

Technical, marketing, sales,

clerical, and service

Production and related

occupations®

54,840

53.3

46.7

87.4

12.6

33.8

66.2

30.1

56.5

13.4

14.7

43.7

41.6

7,540

52.8

47.2

82.1

17.9

49.7

50.3

33.7

64.3

2.0^

11.7

47.2

41.1

Number

Percent

29,140

53.4

46.6

89.6

10.4

23.4

76.6

37.5

46.7

15.8

15.4

36.5

48.1

18,160

53.4

46.6

86.1

13.9

44.0

56.0

16,7

69.0

14.3

14.8

53.7

31.5

^Includes both the 760 establishments changing management and the 3,000 establishments with decreasing or steady employment between 1978 and 1984 as listed in table 5.

2Based on the number of full-time and part-time employees.

3Full-time workers worked 30 or more hours per week.

^Includes Federal, State, county, city, town, or special purpose government agencies.

^Estimate based on fewer than 10 unweighted observations.

^Includes construction, mining, manufacturing, transportation and material moving, mechanics and repairers, material handlers,

equipment cleaners, and general laborers.

Table 9—Estimated number of private sector establishments and wage and salary employment, by location of

headquarters, June 1984

Total Type of industry

Type of establishment

Establishments Employment

Goods-producing Services-producing

Establishments Employment Establishments Employment

All private sector

establishments

Single establishments

7,180

83.1

47,480

47.7

Number

910 16,490

Percent

87.7 29.0

6,270

82.4

30,990

57.7

Multiestablishments 16.9 52.3 12.3 71.0 17,6 42-3

Headquarters in area 8.6 21.3 5.2^ 21.3 9.1 21.3

Headquarters not in

area 8.3 31.0 7.11 49.7 8.5 21.0

1 Estimate based on fewer than 10 unweighted observations.

14
Table 10~Characteristic$ of recreation and other

business estabiisliments, 1984

Item Total Other business Recreation

establish- establish- establishments ments ments^

Number

Total establishments 7,680 6,520

Percent

1,160

Size of establishment:

1-19 paid

employees 57.8 57.8 57.6

20 or more paid

employees 6.9 6.9 7.1

No paid

employees 35.3 35.3 35.3

Wage category of

establishments:

Low-wage 39.3 37.7 48.2

Mean-wage 8.1 9.1 2.32

High-wage 8.9 10.3 1.12

No full-time

employees 43.7 42.9 48.4

Establishments

by employment

change, 1978-84:

New establishments 28.1 29.9 17.8

Growth establishments 22.9 23.4 20.4

No-growth

establishments 39.1 39.5 36.5

Ownership

change^ 9.9 7.2

Number

25.3

Total workers 63,330 53,280

Percent

10,050

Characteristics of

workers:

Self-employed 13.4 12.8 16.7

Wage and salary--

Part-time 11.1 9.0 21.8

Full-time 75.5 78.2 61.5

Full-time jobs by

wage establishment

category, 1984—

Low-wage 51.0 44.2 96.5

Mean-wage 21.5 24.3 2.92

High-wage 27.5 31.5

Dollars

.62

Average weekly

wage, full-time

employees 238 249

Number

171

New wage and

salary jobs

since 1978 13,770 11,890 1,880

^Includes eating and drinking places; hotels, motels, campgrounds; amusement and recreation services; museums.

2Estimate based on fewer than 10 unweighted observations.

^Information for 1978 employment was not available.

The second method consisted of comparing the

employer attributes associated with each

employee subgroup using data which linked

establishments and their employees. These

linked analyses were possible because of the

survey design which permitted employer and

worker responses to be matched. We use the

term 'linked worker" when referring to data from

the linked sample. This linked sample

represented 25,180 wage and salary workers

employed in the sampled establishments.

The total adult survey data show that almost 43

percent of the area's employed persons worked in

technical, sales, clerical, and service occupations, 28 percent worked in production-related

occupations, and almost 30 percent held executive, managerial, and administrative positions.

This last group includes owner-operators of proprietorships and partnerships. The average weekly

earnings for full-time wage and salary workers

was $240. By occupations, executive, managerial,

and administrative workers earned the highest

average weekly wage, $322. Technical, sales,

clerical, and service workers earned the lowest

average weekly wage, $196. Production-related

workers earned an average of $252 per week.

Analyses of the linked worker data indicated that

58.9 percent of employed persons worked in

growth establishments; that is, establishments

that increased their employment levels between

1978 and 1983. Another 8.5 percent of the

employed persons worked in establishments that

began operation after 1978, and 32.6 percent of

the employed persons worked in establishments

whose employment levels were stable or declined

between 1978 and 1983.

Long-Term Residents and Inmtgrants

Inmigration is a possible response to rural

employment growth. Inmigrants may compete

with long-term residents for jobs. Previous

research has shown that inmigrants tend to be

younger, more educated, and possess greater job

skills than long-term residents (6, 9, 15, 18, 20).

Some reasons why better educated, more skilled

individuals are more likely to migrate include the

greater probability of their working in national

labor markets which may require moving for

career advancement; their greater affluence that

permits more travel, thereby familiarizing them

with different parts of the country; and the

greater likelihood they hâve the financial

resources to move among labor markets (9, Í5).

15
The same motives that cause some individuals to

achieve higher levels of education may also

cause them to move to other areas seeking better, higher paying jobs. If these inmigrants, who

have more education and job skills than longterm residents, take most of the available jobs in

the area, then rural development may be a process of hosting employment opportunities for

newcomers with only minor labor market gains

for the indigenous population {20).

In the study area, the labor force participation

rate, employment rate, and unemployment rate

did not significantly differ between long-term

residents and all inmigrants <table 11). However,

residency status did signifleantty affect the type

of jobs heid by employed persons. Inmigrants

were more tikely to be employed in executive and

professional occupations while long-term residents were more likely to work in technical,

sales, and service occupations or in production

and related occupations. Employed inmigrants

also received significantly greater average weekly

wages than did long-term residents.

Muoh of the difference in occupations and

average weekly wages can probably be explained

by inmigrants' greater educational levels. Less

than 20 percent of the employed long-term

residents had some college experience compared

with 37 percent of the inmigrants. As a group,

employed inmigrants completed an average of 13

years of schooling compared with only 11.5 years

for employed long-term residents.

Labor market status differed significantly within

the group of inmigrants. Recent inmigrants, those

who moved to the area during 1979-84, were more

likely to participate in the labor force and to be

employed than were early inmigrants.^^ A person

'•''Although earty inmigrants inctuded a larger proportion of

retirees than recent inmigrants, this result was the same

when retired persons were excluded from the analyses.

Table 11--Selected characteristics of the adult population,i^y residency status, July 1984

Item

Adult population

Labor force participation rate

Employment rate^

Unemployment rate^

Employed persons

Major occupation:

Executive, administrative,

managerial, and professional

Technical, marketing, sales,

clerical, and services

Production and related

occupations

Average age

Average education

Average weei<ly earnings, 1983^

Residency status

Long-term

residents

Inmigrants

Total

All

inmigrants

Early

inmigrants

Recent

inmigrants

Number

139,860 72,830 67,030

Percent

34,860 32,170

51.2

48.2

5.9

51.4

48.4

5.8

51.0

47.9

6.1

46.2

43.4

6.0

56.2

52.7

6.1

Number

67,350 35.240 32,110 15,140

Percent

Dolfars

240 222 259 275

16,970

29.5 22.2 37.5 43.7 32.1

42.6 45.9 39.0 32.5 44.7

27.9 31.9 23.5

years

23.8 23.2

39.8

12.2

39.9

11.5

39.7

13.0

43.9

12.8

36.0

13.1

246

1 Percentage of the adult population employed.

2Percentage of the labor force unemployed.

3Based on earnings of full-time wage and salary workers.

16
can participate in the labor force even though not

worl<ing, so long as that person is looking for work

or on layoff waiting to be called back to a job.

Recent inmigrants were also more likely than early

inmigrants to be employed in technical, sales,

and service jobs while early inmigrants were

more likely to be employed in executive and professional occupations. This situation could

reflect the availability of new business opportunities during the earlier growth phase of the

area. Early inmigrants may also have had more

time to benefit from promotions with increased

work experience.

Analyses of the linked worker data indicate that

the distribution of workers by establishment type

was also related to residency status (table 12).

Long-term residents were more likely to be

employed in goods-producing establishments

than were inmigrants. This finding is also corroborated by the larger percentage of long-term

residents employed in production and related occupations which are generally found in goodsproducing industries (table 11). In addition,

recreation establishments employed relatively

more inmigrants than long-term residents. One

might expect that many of the inmigrants working

in recreation establishments would be temporary

residents; that is, persons who reside most of the

year outside the area and move to the area to

work for the summer. However, temporary residents were almost nonexistent in the study area.

About 97 percent of the study area's adults lived

in the area all year.

In this retirement-tourism area, local economic

growth furnished jobs for long-term residents,

eariy inmigrants, and recent inmigrants. All three

groups had comparable unemployment rates.

Recent inmigrants did participate in the labor

force more than early inmigrants and long-term

residents. Early inmigrants were able to outcompete both long-term residents and recent inmigrants for jobs in the executive and professional categories, including self-employed proprietors and partners. Recent inmigrants likewise

held more of these jobs than long-term residents

did. This finding may reflect the higher education

levels attained by inmigrants.

Retired Persons

Retired persons represent an important economic

asset for rural communities.^^ Retirees receive

money from pensions, government transfers, investments, and savings, much of which is spent

Table 12—Selected characteristics of linked wage and

salary employees^ by residency status, 1984^

Total

Residency status

Item Long-term

residents

All

inmigrants

Number

Totaf linked wage

and salary employees 25,180 14,230

Percent

10,950

Establishment

characteristics:

Wage category—2

Low-wage

Mean-wage

49.1

22.3

47.4

23.4

51.4

20.7

High-wage 28.8 29.2 27.9

Type—

Goods-producing

Government

26.4

19.0

30.3

18.0

21.3

20.3

Services-producing

Recreation

54.6

17.0

51.7

11.5

58.4

24.2

Size—

1-19 paid employees

20 or more paid

employees

44.8

55.2

42.5

57.5

47.9

52.1

Employment change,

1978-84—

New establishments 8.5 7.8 9.4

Growth establishments 58.9 60.8 56.4

No-growth

establishments^ 32.6 31.4 34.2

Wage and salary workers sampled from the employment

roles of the surveyed establishments.

2Distribution is for establishments with full-time employees

only.

^Includes establishments with change of ownership during

1978-84.

in the local economy, creating a demand for

goods and services. This demand for goods and

services, in turn, creates jobs in the area (7, 5,

21). Retirees may also represent an important

potential supply of labor for local businesses.

Many retired persons have gained valuable job

skills and experience over the course of their

working careers that younger workers may lack.

In this report, retirees are persons who considered themselves retired from a job. A person

may be retired from one job and currently working at another job. Although retirees made up a

large part of the area's population, they had only

^^Retlred persons can also strain a community's services,

however. The demand on medical facilities, housing, and

transportation increases as the proportion of the elderly

increases (7).

17
a minínmaí effect on the area's labor föree.

Retirees rrmde up about 34 percent of ihe adults

In the 10-county area, bulohly 6 percent of the

area's work force (table 13): Only 9 percent of tire

area's retirees were currently employed, and they

earned about 78 percent as much as nonfeiirees.

Retirees who were currently working Jiad an

average age of almost 64 years and vvere more

likely to be early Inmigrants and less educated

than nonretlrees.

Sixty percent of the employed retirees were selfemployed, significantly greâfer thanthé^.9 percent of nonretired workers. Older workefrare

more likely than younger workers to have the

financial and skill resources necessary to start

their own businesses (2). Many older \A^orkers who

have retired from wage and Salary jobs bécorñe

self-employed to supplement their retirement

income.

Retirees were also more likely than nonretlrees to

be self-employed and to work in executive and

Professional occupations. Most of the "executiveprofessionals" were self-employed owneroperators who considered themselves managers.

A self-employed person may have more flexibility

In ehoosiiïg when to work. Older persons may be

less likely to want to leave these second jobs

after reâchifig "retirement age." Despite the large

proportio>n of retirees in executive and professional occupations, their average weekly wage

was significantly below that of nonretired

workers.

Men and Women

One of the most significant changes in the Nation's labor force over the last several decades

has been the increase in the number of women in

the labor force (19). In 1960, women made up 32

percent of the Nation's labor force. By 1984, the

share of women in the labor force had increased

to 43 percent (30, 31). Over this same time period,

the labor force participation rate for females increased from 36.7 percent to 53.7 percent (28).

Several reasons may explain the dramatic increase of working women: more favorable attitudes toward women working outside the home,

Inflatiofrthat caused many households to add a

second income to maintain standards of living,

decisions to postpone having children and limit

family size which enabled more women to work,

and decreased discrimination in hiring women

(IS). Despite the dramatic increase in the number

of women entering the labor force, labor force

participation rates continued to be higher for men

Table IS^Setectedcharacteristics of workersytiy

retirement status, July 1984

item Total Nonretireés Retirees

Number^

Total adult population 139^860 92,990

Percent

46,870

Labor force parti cl pation

rate

Employment rate

unemployment rate""

51.2

48.2

5.9

72.1

67.8

5.9

Number

9.8

9.2

6.3

Employed persons 67,350 63,050

Percenl

4,300

Residency status:

Long-term residents

Early inmigrants

Recent inmigrants

52,3

22.5

25.2

52.4

21.7

25.9

50.5

34.4

15.1

Self-employed workers

VVage^workers working:

FulJ-time^

Part4fme

26.3

66.0

7.7

23.9

69.1

7,0

60.6

21.2

18.2

Mâjoroccupatlon:

Executive, administrative,

managerial, and

professlona!

Technical, marketing,

saies, clerical, and

services

Production and related

occupations

29.5

42.6

27.9

28.5

42.7

28.8

Years

44.5

40.5

15.0

Average age

Average education

38.9

12.3

38.1

12.3

Dollars

63.9

11.0

Average weekly earnings,

19833 240 241 187

1 Percentage of the tabor force ur\employed,

^Worked 30 or more hours per week.

3Bâsed on earnings offull-time wage and salary workers.

than for women. Furthermore, most of the

employment growth of nonmetro women was concentrated in low-wage service sector jobs (79).

Labor force participation and employment rates

were löwer for women in the 10-county area than

for men (table 14). Although women made up 52

percent of the adult population in the area, they

accounted for only 42 percent of the area's

employed persons, the same as the national

nonmetro rate. Employed men and women had

similar average ages, average education levels,

18
and residency statuses, but the characteristics of

the jobs held by women were nnarkedly different

from those held by men.

Employed women were less likely than men to be

self-employed, and among wage earners, were

more likely to work part-time. Some women

choose to work part-time so they can balance the

duties of child care and other family responsibilities with the demands of employment outside the house. Less than 5 percent of the

Table 14—Selected characteristics of workers, by sex,

July 1984

Item Total Male Female

Number

Total adult population 139,860 66,830

Percent

73,030

Labor force participation

rate

Employment rate

Unemployment rate''

51.2

48.2

5.9

62.0

58.5

5.7

Number

41.3

38.7

6.3

Employed persons 67,350 39,070

Percent

28,280

Residency status:

Long-term residents

Early inmigrants

Recent inmigrants

52.3

22.5

25.2

52.7

21.4

25.9

51.8

24.0

24.2

Self-employed workers

Wage workers working:

Full-time2

Part-time

26.3

66.0

7.7

32.0

62.7

5.3

18.3

70.6

11.1

Major occupation:

Executive, administrative,

managerial,

professional

Technical, marketing,

sales, clerical,

service

Production and related

occupations

29.5

42.6

27.9

33.8

31.3

34.9

Years

23.6

58.2

18.2

Average age

Average education

39.8

12.2

40.4

12.1

Dollars

39.0

12.4

Average weekly earnings,

1983^ 240 281 188

^Percentage of the labor force unemployed.

2Worked 30 or more hours per week.

3Based on earnings of full-time wage and salary workers.

women in the study area working part-time stated

that they wanted to work full-time but could find

only part-time work. Women were less likely than

men to be working In the executive, professional,

and production and related occupations. Women

were overrepresented, in relation to men, in the

technical, sales, and service occupations. Within

this occupational group, women dominated the

clerical occupations. On average, the weekly

wage received by working women was only $188

compared with $281 for working men.

Both women and men had similar access to jobs

in new and growth estabiishments (table 15).

However, women were more likeiy to work in lowwage industries, the only significant difference in

the distribution of employed men and women

across any industry sector based on the linked

worker sample.

Although women are entering the area's labor

force in increasing numbers, men are still more

likely to be employed, work full-time, hold most of

the executive and professional jobs, and earn

higher wages. In our study area, women were

more likely to work in low-wage establishments.

Youths and Older Workers

Participation in the labor market differs significantly by age. Because younger people possess

few marketable skills and tittle work experience,

they have historically experienced high levels of

unemployment and low average wages (76, 19).

Youths are typically the most likely to migrate

when jobs are scarce in many rural areas (6). If

jobs are made available to youths, the need to

migrate to other areas for work is reduced.

Youths (16-24 years old) in the 10-county area experienced lower labor force participation and

employment rates and higher unemployment

rates than did prime age adults 25-49 years old

(table 16). The unemployment rate for youths was

more than three times higher than for other

adults. Employed youths, many of whom may not

have yet finished their formal education, were

less educated and more likely to be long-term

residents than prime age a<Jults. Youths were

less likely to work in executive and professional

occupations and more likely to work in technical

occupations than prime age adults. Having

neither the capital nor the experience needed to

run a business, relatively few youths were selfemployed. On average, youths earned $81 per

week less than prime age adults.

19
Youths were disproportionatety employed in lowwage, service, and recreation establishments

(table 17). Nationally, youths are overrëpresented

in the service industries{í6). Service Industries,

includrngrecreation-basedlndustriesi are generally

associated with low-skill, low-wage Jobs and

more flexible hours (73). Many youths must find

time to work outside school hours. Mahy of tt^ese

service-industry jobs are seasonal. íleven percent

of the service-producing establishments operated

less than 9 months per year, including 42 percent

of the recreation-based establishments. However,

only 6 percent of the employed youths expected

to work less than 26 weeks during the year white

87 percent expected to work more than 40 weeks

in 1984. These figures were virtually the same as

those of employed prime age adults and older

persons. Possibly some of these full-time summer

workers, especially youths, will continue part-time

activity during the off season.

The labor market position of older persons also

differed significantly from prime age adults. Pension benefits, Social Security, and increased

Table 15—Selected characteristics of linked wage and

salary workers, by worker^ssek, 1984

ttem Total Male Female

Alt ItnKed wage and salary

employees^

Establishment characterlsttcs:

Wage category—^

Low-wage

Mean-wage

Higti-wage

TypeGovernment

Goods-producing

Services-producing

Recreation

Size—

1-19 paid employees

20 or more paid employees

Employment change, 1978-84-

New establishments

Growth estabiIshments

No-growth establishments^

Number

25,180 13,060 12,120

Percent

49.1

22.3

28.6

19.0

26.4

54.6

17.0

44.8

55.2

8.5

58.9

32.6

42,9

24.5

32.6

19.0

30.3

50.7

t4.3

45.8

54.2

7.8

55.9

36.3

55.9

19.8

24.3

18.9

22.2

58.9

19^

43,7

56.3

9.2

62.2

28.6

"•Wage and salary workers sampled from the employment

roles of the surveyed establishments.

2Distribution is for estabiishTiients with full-time employees

only.

3|ncludes establishments with change of ownership during

1978-84.

physical aiImeitts all affect older persons' decisions to work. Over half of the adults in the

10-county area were 50 years of age otoïÛBx,

Only 25 percent of these older persona were

employed at the time of the survey^ j3rimârily

because many older workers choose to retire

rather than remain in the labor force. Older

workers, who were í)redomÍnant1y longHerm

residents and achieved lower levefs of education

than prime age workers, were also more likely to

be selfremployed and, among wage earners, more

Table 16—Setecled characteristics of workers, by age,

July 1984

item Total

Age

16-24 25^49 50 years

years years and older

Number

Total adult population 139,860 18,840 49,750

Percent

Labor force participation

rate

Employment rate

Unemployment rate^

Employed persons

51.2

48.2

5.9

70.8 79.6

60.5 76.6

14.7 3.&

Number

67,350 11,390 38,110

Percent

Residency status:

Long-term residents 52.3

Early inmlgrants 22.5

Recent mmigrants 25,2

Self-employed workers

Wage workers working:

Full-time^ 66.0

PaTt-time 7.7

Major occupation:

Executive, administrative,

managerial,

profess ionai 29.5

Technical, marketing,

sales, clerical^

service 42.6

Production and related

occupations 27.9

Average age 39.8

Average education 12.2

Average weekly earnings,

1983^ 240

71.4

1.92

26.7

44.t

25.3

30.6

26.3 13.6 23.4

75.0

11.4

71.1

5.5

8.4 32.1

55.7 38.7

35.9 29.2

Years

20.5 36.7

12.1 12.7

Dollars

171 252

71,270

26.2

25.0

4.3

17.850

57.7

29.6

12.7

40.5

49.4

tot

37.3

42.5

20.2

58.6

11.3

271

1 Percentage of the labor force unempioyed.

2Estlmate basetf on fewer than 10 unweighted observations.

^Worked 30 or more hours per week.

^Based on earnings of full-time wage and salary workers.

20
likely to work part time. Many older workers go

from working full time to working part time before

they retire from the labor market completely (70).

Among full-time wage workers, older persons

earned significantly higher average weekly wages

than prime age workers.

The characteristics of establishments employing

workers 24-49 years old did not differ significantly

from those employing workers 50 years or older

(table 17). That is, older workers were as likely to

be employed in the same types of establishments

as prime age workers.

Recent Entrants

The rationale behind many rural development programs is that employment growth increases the

demand for skilled labor, which in turn results in

upgrading the positions of unemployed and Inexperienced workers (3). Some public officials see

jobs as a way of reducing dependence on public

Table 17—Selected characteristics of linked wage and

salary workers, by age, 1984

Total

Age

Item 16-24

years

25-49

years

50 years

and older

Number

All linked wage and salary

employees^ 25,180 4,500 14,920 5,760

Percent

Establishment characteristics:

Wage category—^

Low-wage

Mean-wage

High^wage

49.1

22.3

28.6

62.4

17.7

19.9

45.8

20.8

33.4

47.5

29.6

22.9

TypeGovernment

Goods-producing

Services-producing

Recreation

19.0

26.4

54.6

17.0

4.73

29.1

66.2

30.7

20.6

28.7

50.7

13.7

26.1

18.3

55.6

14.9

Size1-19 paid employees

20 or more paid employees

44.8

55.2

51.5

48.5

45.4

54.6

38.0

62.0

Employment change, 1978-84-

New establishments

Growth establishments

No-growth establishments^

8.5

58.9

32.6

16.5

55.5

28.0

6.4

63.1

30.5

7.63

50.6

41.8

^Wage and salary workers sampled from the employment

roles of the surveyed establishments.

2Distributlon is for establishments with full-time employees

only.

^Estimate based on fewer than 10 unweighted observations.

^Includes establishments with change of ownership during

1978-84.

assistance while raising incomes and enhancing

tax revenues. Data from the Ozark study suggest

that employment growth in the 10-county area

provided job op0ortunitie^s for persons with little

labor force expérience. Almost 24 percent of

those persons Who worked 1 or more weeks during 1983 did not work during 1978, These people

are referred to ais recent entrants in the following

discussion.

Over half the recent entrants were youths, 16-24

years old (table 18). Many of these youths were

making the transition from student to worker.

Because many of the recent entrants were of

schooi age and had not finished their formai

education, experienced workers were more likely

to have somecoliege background than recent entrants. Femaiesl who accounted for only 37 percent of the experienced workers, made up 61 percent of ttie recent entrants.

Compared with experienced workers, recent

workers were less Hkely to be self-employed and

among wage earners more likely to work part

time. Most of the recent entrants were employed

in technical occupations, relatively few worked In

professional occupations. The differences in occupations held by experienced workers and recent entrants contributed to the significantly

higher weekly wages earned by experienced

workers.

Recent entrants did not get most of the jobs

associated with recent economic growth in the

area. Experienced workers were as likely to be

employed in new and growth establishments as

recent entrants. However, recent entrants were

significantly more likely to be employed in lowwage industries than were experienced workers

(table 19). Recent entrants were also more likely

to work in services-producing establishments and

recresttion establishments than were experienced

workers.

Economic growth provided employment opportunities for persons with limited work experience

(mostly youths and women). However, most of the

jobs held by recent entrants were low-wage jobs.

Recent entrants found jobs in new and growth

establishments to the same degree as experienced

workers, but recent entrants were significantly

more iikely to work In low-wage establishments

and services-producing industries, including

recreation establishments, than experienced

workers were. As recent entrants gain work experience and job skills, however, they should be

able to move into higher wage establishments

21
and professional occupations to the same degree

as more experienced workers.

Roles of Government in Eiriployment

Growth

Government may contribute to rural job creation

because it adds to communities' total employTable 18—Selected characteristics of recent entrants

and experienced workers, 1983

Employed in 1983—^

Item Also Not employed

employed in in 1978

1978 (recent entrants)

Total

Number

Employed persons 74,060 56,610

Percent

Residency status:

Long-term

resident 51.3 47.6

In migrant 48.7 52.4

Sex:

Male 57.3 62.8

Female 42.7 37.2

Age:

16-24 years 16.7 5.1

25-34 years 22.9 24.0

35 years and older 60.4 70.9

Education:

Less than high

school 23.9 22.2

High school 48.8 48.4

Some college 27.3 29.4

Self-employed 26.4 29.4

Wage workers

working:

Full-time^ 65.1 65.0

Part-time 8.5 5.6

Major occupation:

Executive,

administrative,

managerial, and

professional 29.7 34.8

Technical,

marketing.

sales, clerical,

and services 42.8 38.2

Production and

related

occupations 27,5 27.0

Dollars

Average weekly

earnings, 1983^ 252 279

17,450

63.4

36.6

39.5

60.5

54.3

19.5

26.2

29.3

50.2

20.5

16.6

65.1

18.3

13.2

57.7

29.1

169

11ncludes persons working 1 or more weeks some time in

1983-

2Worked 30 or more hours per week.

3Based on earnings of fult-tlme wage and salary workers

working 1 or more weeks in 1983.

ment and income ieveis. Government can also

provide capitat and technical assistance for

private sector establishments and can provide the

physical and social infrastructure which supports

private business operations.

Government as an Employer

In the tO-county study area, some 500 government

units, including public school districts, provided

7,360 jobs, or 13 percent of total wage and salary

jobs (table 1). This figure is lower than the 1982

national nonmetro rate of 19 percent (22). About a

third of these jobs were with Federal and State

government units. Nearly 45 percent of the government employees worked in high-wage units with

average weekly wages greater than $262 (table 2).

Growth in government employment in the study

area was minimal. Most government units, 69 perTable 19—Labor force experience of workers, by

selected characteristics ol lndusirié&in

which workers were employed, 1984

Linked worker's employment status in 1984

Item Total Experienced Recent

worker entrant

Number

All linked wage and

salary employees'' 25,180 18,990

Percent

6,190

Industry

characteristics:

Wage category—^

Low-wage 49.1 44.6 63.4

Mean-wage 22.3 24.3 15.7

High-wage 28.6 31.1 20.9

TypeGovernment 19.0 19.6 17.0

Goods-producing 26.4 28.6 19.8

Services-producing 54.6 51.8 63.2

iRecreation 17.0 13.7 27.0

Size—

1-19 paid employees 44.8 43.5 48.9

20 or mofe paid

employees 55.2 56.5 51.1

Empioyment change,

1978-84—

New establishments 8.5 7.6 11.1

Growth establishments 58.9 59.0 58.5

No-growth establishments^ 32.6 33.4 30.4

1 Wage and saiary workers sampled from the employment

roles of the surveyed establishments.

2Dlstribution is for establishments with full-time employees

only.

^Inciudes establistrments with change of ownership between 1978 and 1984.

22
cent, did not expand employment. Many government units were special purpose districts in the

area, staffed only by volunteers or a few paid

employees in both 1978 and 1984. Only 6 percent

of the area's new jobs were in government units,

although 37 percent of the measurable decline in

jobs occurred in government units (table 6).

Government as a Source of Capital

One objective of this study was to determine the

extent to which public sector funds expanded

employment opportunities in the area. We asked

private sector establishments the following question regarding sources of funds:

Since January 1,1972, were the following

sources of capital used to finance outlays for

land, buildings, or equipment when first

locating in the 10-county area or for any expansions that resulted in more persons being

employed by this unit?

We followed this question with a list of sources,

including public agencies, private sector financial

institutions, savings or retained earnings, personal noncommercial loans, and corporate stock.

The role of government in providing direct capital

to private businesses in the area was limited.

Only 5 percent of the establishments used a

public agency's direct or guaranteed loan during

the preceding 12 years to start or expand their

businesses (table 20). Large establishments

benefited more from public funds than did small

establishments. Goods producers were more likely to use public sources of funds than services

producers. Publicly assisted capital may have

been a significant source of funds for a few

businesses, but overall, dependence on government capital was minimal in the study area.

About half of all private sector establishments

used internal sources (retained earnings, savings,

or sale of corporate stock) to fund startups or expansions. About half also used external sources

(private sector financial institutions and personal

noncommercial borrowing). Some establishments

used more than one source of funds. Small establishments with no paid employees or part-time

employees only more often depended on internal

souces of funds than on external sources. One

can assume that small family-operated

businesses rely on their own savings for startups

and expansions.

Table 20—Distribution of private sector establishments by sources of capital for establishment or expansion,

January 1972 to December 1984

Establishments

Sources of capital^

Private sector Retained earnings, Private sector Public agencies

establishments savings, or sale

of corporate stock

or personal

loans

Number Percent

All establishments 7,180 51 52 5

Establishment wage category:

Low-wage

Mean-wage

High-wage

No full-time employees

2,870

570

500

3,240

49

30

38

59

56

67

47

46

12

4

5

3

Type of industry:

Goods-producing

Services-producing

910

6,270

56

50

58

51

12

3

Size of industry:

1-19 paid employees

20 or more paid employees

No paid employees

4,060

430

2,690

47

44

59

54

61

46

4

13

3

Single establishments 5,960 54 54 5

Multiestablishments 1,220 38 39 3

1 Private sources of capital include banks and savings and loan institutions. Public sources of capitai include loan guarantees or

capital borrowed directly from such public agencies as the Smalt Business Administration, Farmers Home Administration,

Economic Development Administration, or through State or local bond issues. An establishment may have used more than one

source; thus, the percentages may not add to 100.

23
Employment Services and Training

Government, among its other activities in economic

development, also provides job training programs

and employment services for unemployed, lowskilled, inexperienced, and displaced workers.

However, the rate of participation in formal

employment and training programs by the area's

adults was low. In July 1984, among the population 16 years and older, only 8 percent had participated in a formal job training program (table

21). Government agencies, including public schools,

the military, and other government units, sponsored 62 percent of the job training received by

the area's residents.

Participants in job training programs, whether

sponsored by governments or other organizations, were more likely than nonparticipants to be

in the middle age group of 25-34 years old, to

have had some college education, and to be recent inmigrants to the area. Seventy-two percent

of the job training participants were employed

compared with 46 percent of the nonparticipants.

When type of training is considered by broad occupational categories, the occupations most

represented were sales and clerical positions,

mechanics, and repair and production positions.

About 87 percent of ail participants completed

their training, and 59 percent of those said their

training led to a job or promotion.

The occupations for which most trainees prepared

corresponded with the occupations employers indicated they had difficulty in filling, in particular,

sales, clerical, and service workers. About 43 percent of all employers reported they had difficulty

in finding qualified persons to fill positions (table

22). Larger employers had more difficulty finding

qualified employees than did small employers.

Use of State employment agencies by establishments seeWng workers and by people looking for

jobs was limited compared with the numbers of

employers and workers who used more informal

search methods (table 23), About a fifth of the

establishments hiring workers in 1984 and about

a tenth of the workers hired since 1984 used

State employment agencies. Most job-seekers

and employers depended upon walk-ins and referrals from friends and other businesses.

Relatively few workers in the area participated in

the Job Training Partnership Act or Women in

Need (WIN) progams. Only about 200 workers

were in positions where the salary was paid or

supplemented by Federal or State employment

programs during the summer of 1984. Most of

these worked in government units.

Government Infrastructure

While governments' direct role In employment,

grants and loans, employment services, and job

training was minimal, government outlays have

contributed to public infrastructure which supports private business operations. Between 1978

Table 21—Selected characteristics of participants and

nonparticipants in job training programs,

July 1984^

Hpm Participants in Nonparticipants in

tlCIf 1

job traini ng job traini ng

Number

Adult population 9,860 130,000

Percent

Sex:

Male 55,0 47.2

Female 45.0 52.8

Age:

16-24 years 12.8 13.5

25-34 years 66.6 33.2

35 years and older 20.6 53.3

EducationLess than high school 8.2 37.3

High school 46.9 42.1

Beyond high school 44.9 20.6

Residency status:

Long-ternn resident 37.5 53.2

Early inmigrant 19.1 25.4

Recent Inmigrant 43.4 21.4

Employment status:

Employed 72.4 46.3

Unemployed 10.4 2.5

Out of labor force 17.2 51.2

Occupation trained for:

Executive 7.6 -

Professional and

technical 16.6 -

Sales and clerical 26.4 -

Service 14.8 —

Construction, transportation, and equipment

operators 9.5 —

Mechanics, repairers,

and production

workers 23.8 -

Laborers and military 1.32

— = Not applicable.

""Includes job training received in high school, college, public

vocational school, private professional or occupationai school,

the military, private firms, and the government. Excludes informal on-the-job instruction or courses taken at elementary and

high school or college for the purpose of completing graduation

requirements.

2Estlmâte based on fewer than 10 unweighted obsen/ations.

24
and 1984, 26 percent of the area's governmental

units started new services or expanded existing

services for capital infrastructure projects including water and sewer systems, road construction,

and solid waste collection and disposal. Social

services, including public housing, emergency

medical services, public health services, and

educational facilities, were developed or expanded

by 22 percent of the government units. Eleven

percent also increased outlays for public safety

including fire, police, and jails. Prior to the 1970's,

as. Army Corps of Engineers' investments in

large reservoirs provided the base for much of the

area's recreational facilities.

The characteristics of these potential workers

and the reasons they were not working are

presented in tables 24 and 25.

Less than 6 percent of the persons not currently

employed were unemployed individuals seeking

work and available for immediate employment.

The distribution of the unemployed by sex was

similar to that of employed persons. However,

compared with employed persons, the unemployed were younger and less well educated.

Employed workers, on average, completed almost

a full year of schooling more than did the

unemployed.

Potential Labor Force

Over 50 percent of the adults living in the

10-county area at the time of the survey were not

working. These people represent a large potential

labor force to support future job growth. However,

not all of these nonworkers have the skills, training, experience, or desire to find employment.

Table 22~Establîshments reporting difficulty in finding

qualified persons, by establishment

characteristics, 1984

Establishments with

Item Total difficulty in finding

establishments qualified workers

Number Percent

Establishments with

one or more employees"" 4,970 42.7

Establishment wage

categories:

Low-wage 3,020 46.8

Mean-wage 620 57.2

High-wage 680 32.7

No full-time employees 650 20.1

Type of establishment:

Goods-producing 580 54.2

Services-producing 3,910 41.5

Government 480 39.0

Size of establishment:

1-19 paid employees 4,440 40.4

20 or more paid

employees 530 62.1

Employment change,

1978-84:

New establishments 1,120 45.0

Growth establishments 1,690 46.5

No-growth

establishments^ 2,160 38.5

1 Establishments operated solely by self-employed owners or.

partners are excluded from this table.

^includes establishments with change of ownership between 1978 and 1984.

The largest group of nonworkers were persons

not in the labor force who had worked prior to

1978. This group is made up largely of retirees

with an average age of 68. On average, these

people last worked almost 15 years ago. Almost

90 percent of this group said they were not Interested in paid employment.

The second largest group of nonworkers consisted

of persons not in the labor force who had worked

within the last 5 years. These people had an

average age of 51.7 years and completed 11.3

Table 23—Methods used by establishmenls to locate

employees and methods used by employees

to fina jobs

item Establishments reporting Workers starting

hires in 1984^ Jobs since 19782

Establishments

and workers

Methods used to

locate workers

or jobs:^

state employment agencies

Waik-ins

Local or

national

advertisements

Referrals*

Other sources^

2,700

Number

Percent

33,980

23.2

44.1

21.0

48.8

25.6

10.2

50.5

4.3

43.0

8.4

"•Fifty percent of the new and ongoing establishments with

one or more paid employees had new hires in 1984.

^Data were not obtained from persons who were employed

in their current primary job prior to 1978.

^Because some establishments and persons used more

than one source, percentages will not add to 100.

"^Includes referrals by friends, relatives, and other

estabiishments.

^Includes vocational schools, unions, colleges or universities, private employment agencies, and other sources not

already identified.

25
years of schooling. Most (73.2 percent) of this

group stated they were not interested in paid

employment, but almost 20 percent said they

were interested in working, but had to care for a

child or adult or did not have transportation.

Over 8,000 persons in the study area had never

worked. These people were predominantly women,

had low levels of schooling, and were about 42

years old on average. Almost 15 percent of this

group could not work because of ill health;

another 22 percent wanted to work but could not

because of family responsibilities or inadequate

transportation.

The area's low unemployment rate suggests that

if the area's industries want to Increase the size

of their labor force, the pool of unemployed

workers in the area may be inadequate to meet

this increased demand for tabor.^^ This situation

is especially true of those positions that require

high levels of education. Persons not in the labor

^^he area's unemployment rate was 5.9 percent compared

with 7.6 percent for all U.S. nonmetro areas {28).

force would probably not enter the labor force to

fill the labor needs of the area's industries. Many

of those persons not in the labor force were older

persons or retirees, had levels of education below

those of employed persons, and were not interested in paid employment. Thus, inmigrants may

be the means of supporting additional job gfowth

in the area, especially for positions requiring high

levels of education.

Implications

The 10-county Ozark area has prospered with

tourism and an influx of retirees. Community and

area leaders interested in further economic

development may need to pursue several

strategies to ensure continued growth.

The area's new business growth was strong with

28 percent of the establishments beginning

operations since 1978. However, turnover of

business ownership is high in the area. Ten percent of all the establishments in 1984 and 28 percent of the recreation businesses, had changed

Table 24—Adult population, 16 years and older, not employed in July 1984, by previous work experience

Characteristics

Persons not employed

Not in labor force

Total Unemployed Worked some time

between January 1978

and January 1984^

Worked prior to

January 1978^

Never employed

Number

Adult population

Sex:

Male

Female

Age in 1984:

16-24 years

25-54 years

55 years and older

Education:

Less than high school

High school

Beyond high school

Average age

Average years of school

completed

Average length of time since

last worked

72,510 4,250

38.3

61.7

55.2

44.8

10.3

21.8

68.1

46.2

51.4

2.42

47.0

35.8

17.2

33.0

46.2

20.82

58.7 32.4

10.9 11.3

20,310

Percent

42.9

57.1

10.7

33.3

56.0

41.1

38,3

20.6

Years

51.7

11.3

2.8

39.920 8.030

36.4

63.6

27.2

72.8

02

12.4

87.6

41.5

22.4

36.1

49.2

34.2

16.6

58.5

31.9

9.6

68.4 41.6

10.7 10.4

14.8

— = Not applicable.

11ncludes persons who worked 1 or more weeks for pay or were self-employed.

^Estimate based on fewer than 10 unweighted observations.

^Average not shown because the unemployed Included 248 persons who had never worked; 92 percent of the unemployed

workers had worked since January 1978.

26
Table 25—Reasons given for not looking for work by the

adult population, 16 years and older, by

previous work experience

Persons not in the labor force, July 1984

Previous work experience

Item Worked sometime Worked

Total between January prior to Never

1978 and January employed

January 1984"' 1978^

Numbet

Adult population 68,260 20,310

Percent

39,920 8,030

Discouraged

worker2 1.1 2.13 03 3.83

III health 8.1 6.5 7.5 14.9

Not interested

in paid

employment 80.5 73.2 88.6 59.1

Interested in

paid employment but

could not

work'* 10.3 18.2 3.9 22.2

^includes persons who worked 1 or more weeks for pay or

were self-employed.

2|ncludes persons who had stopped looking for work

because they believed none was available.

^Estimate based on fewer than 10 unweighted observations.

"^Includes persons who were interested in paid employment,

but had to care for a child or sick or aged adult or did not

have transportation to and from a work place.

ownership since 1978. Small business assistance,

including technical and educational programs

and capital financing, can help such firms survive

and expand later. A longer tourist season would

also help both owners and workers in recreation

businesses.

Establishments with headquarters outside the

area accounted for almost half of the area's

employment in goods production. Civic leaders in

rural areas should be sensitive to problems encountered by branch establishments. Establishments with absentee owners may be lured away

more easily than establishments with local

owners. Industry visitation programs coupled with

local government assistance in solving industry

problems can help retain these establishments.

The recreation industry contributed significantly

to the area's economic growth, accounting for 15

percent of the establishments and 16 percent of

the workers. However, encouraging growth in

recreation industries may not be an economically

sound rural development strategy for many areas.

The Ozark area is endowed with resources, such

as mountains and lakes, that attract many

tourists to the area. Many areas may not have the

resources needed to support recreational establishments. Even areas with the potential for

recreation-based growth should note that the

Ozark area's recreational industry was characterized by small firms, a high percentage of parttime jobs, and a high ownership turnover among

establishments.

Over half of the area's jobs, including most of the

new jobs since 1978, were in the service sector.

Jobs in service sector establishments, especially

in recreation establishments, typically paid low

weekly wages on average. However, low-paying

jobs are better than unemployment. These jobs

may also provide youths and new entrants to the

labor force with opportunities to gain the work

skills and experience necessary to climb the job

ladder.

Rural areas may need to attract and promote

higher paying industries such as manufacturers

and other goods producers rather than service Industries. These higher paying industries may provide the means for rural workers to increase their

economic well-being.

Local institutions should also increase and target

job training programs to local residents who have

been disadvantaged in obtaining high-wage and

professional-executive jobs in relation to inmigrants. These inmigrants on average had more

education than long-term residents. Increased job

training is one way to help local residents get

higher paying jobs. Such training would also

benefit youths and new entrants to the labor force.

Local areas should not lose sight of the importance of retirees to the economy. Although

retirees were only a small portion of the study

area's labor force, they represented a significant

source of income. Within the study site, the per

capita income in retirees' households was about

the same as that in nonretirees' households.

Because retirees' income is more stable than

employment income, retirement communities may

be less sensitive to recessions than other areas.

Continued promotion of retirement centers depends upon the area's amenities. These amenities

include not only the natural resources of an area,

but also private and public facilities, such as

housing, transportation services, medical care

facilities, and retail trade merchants that cater to

the needs of the elderly.

27
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22. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic

Research Service. Chartbook of NonmetroMetro Trends. RDRR-43. Aug. 1984.

23. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the

Census, Current Population Report. Series

P-25, No. 970. June 1985.

28
24.

25.

_, Bureau of the Census. Un27.

28.

29.

published population data for 1984.

, Bureau of the Census. Un26.

published education data for 1983.

, Bureau of the Census. Money

Occupational Classification Manual. Oct.

1977.

30. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor

Statistics. Employment and Earnings. Vol. 14,

No. I.Jan. 1967.

Income of Households, Families, and Persons

in the United States: 1983, Current Population

Reports, Series P-60, No. 146. 1985.

, Bureau of the Census. Un31.

published data from Current Population

Surveys, 1982.

, Bureau of the Census. Unpublished data from Current Population

Surveys, 1984.

, Office of Federal Statistical

Employment and Earnings. Vol.

Policy and Standards, in cooperation with Office of Management and Budget. Standard

32, No. 2. Feb. 1985.

32. U.S. House of Representatives, Congressional

Rural Caucus. Objectives of Rural Development Policy Act of 1980, PL 96-355. Congress

of the United States, May 16, 1984.

33. U.S. Office of Management and Budget,

Statistical Policy Division. Standard Industrial

Classification Manual 1972. 1972.

34. U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture and

Forestry. The Rural Development Act of 1972

(PL 92-419): Analysis and Explanation. Congress of the United States, Oct. 1972.

29
Appendix A: Survey Design and

Procedures

Researchers from the Economic Research Service

(ERS) designed the study, developed the questionnaires, edited the data, and conducted the

analysis. Statisticians from the Statistical Reporting Service (SRS), now the National Agricultural

Statistics Service (NASS), participated in developing the sample and survey materials. Data were

collected by enumerators from the Little Rock,

Arkansas, and Columbia, Missouri, SRS offices.

A random stratified multiple-frame design was

used to survey employers and households. The

establishment list frame was composed both of

private sector and public sector employers and

businesses. The list frame of establishments was

constructed from telephone directories, Government census lists. State directories of manufacturers, and contacts with local officials. Military

installations, other than U.S. Army Corps of

Engineers* dams and reservoirs, were excluded

from the list frame as were traditional agricultural

farms and churches. However, some specialized

activities, classified as agriculture, for example,

worm farms, were included. Also included were

church-affiliated groups offering social services,

for example, day care centers and camps. The list

frame of private businesses included each establishment of the same firm and each independent

company at the same location. For government

units, each location or establishment was

separately included on the list frame except for

county and city governments where all functions

and all locations were combined as one entry on

the list frame. Separately incorporated housing

authorities were listed separately.

A sample of establishments was selected for interviews. The characteristics of employers were

based on this sample. A sample of persons

employed in the sample establishments, including owner-operators of proprietorships and

partnerships, was selected for interviews in the

household survey. This sample of employees

became the list frame for the household sample

and the basis for the linked worker sample.

Area frames were used to account for the incompleteness of the list frames. The establishment area frame was used to estimate those

establishments not on the list. The household

area frame was used to collect data on those

households whose members were either all

unemployed, out of the labor force, self-employed

in agriculture, employed by establishments not

on the list, employed by establishments on the

list that refused to participate in the survey, or

employed outside the study area.

The establishment sample was stratified by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) and by three

size groups as measured by the number of

employees (33). There were eight groups: (1)

manufacturing; (2) mining, construction, and other

goods producers; (3) transportation, communications, public utilities, finance, insurance, and real

estate; (4) recreation, including eating and drinking places, lodging places, museums, and amusement and recreation services; (5) wholesale and

retail trade other than eating and drinking places;

(6) services other than those listed in recreation;

(7) governments of counties and towns with 1980

populations of more than 1,000 people; and (8) all

other government units. The three establishment

size groups were based on number of employees:

(1) 19 or fewer employees, including those with

no paid employees; (2) 20-99 employees; and (3)

100 or more employees (app. table 1).

The employer size groups were not proportionately

distributed; thus, each employer size group was

sampled at a different rate to assure a representative sample. Private and public establishments

with 19 or fewer employees were sampled at the

rate of 1 in 13. Units with 20-99 employees were

sampled at a rate of one in four. All large

establishments with 100 or more employees were

surveyed. Two exceptions to these overall establishment sampling rates were incorporated into

the sample design. First, all counties and all

towns with more than 1,000 population in 1980

were enumerated. Second, manufacturing and

recreation establishments with 19 or fewer

employees were sampled at the rate of 1 in 10. A

replacement was not selected when a list frame

establishment with fewer than 100 employees

refused to participate in the survey. Information

collected from the establishments included principal products or services provided, total employment for 1978 and 1984, and employment

characteristics such as occupations and sex of

workers, part-time and full-time workers, and

average wage and salary of full-time workers.

Before the enumerator concluded the interview

with a sampled list frame establishment, the

enumerator drew a random sample of employees

from the establishment's list of current employees, including proprietors and partners actively

working in the business. Each employee selected

from the list became part of the list frame for

households and was interviewed at home.

30
Enumerators collected information on household

composition, characteristics of household

members, employment status, employment

history back to 1978, types of jobs held by all

household members 16 years or older, residency

status, and household income. The establishment's Identification was included on the

employee's questionnaire, thereby assuring that

linkage could be made with the unit's

characteristics during data analysis.

Appendix table I—List frame universe and sample of establishments, employees, household members, and

employer-employee link sample, by stratum

Establishments Employeir-employee

Industry (primary sanriple units) Employee link sample

and Establishment Employee household

size universe Completions Out of household members Employers Employees

stratum^ business^ completions^ completions

Number

Mining and

construction:

Small 514 22 44 22 55 14 22

Medium 8 2 0 2 5 2 2

Large 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Manufacturing:

Small 259 121 1 26 52 16 26

Medium 53 8 0 17 33 6 17

Large 33 17 0 44 81 12 44

TCPU and FIRE:^

Small 713 36 2 32 61 26 32

Medium 30 5 0 8 13 4 8

Large 4 3 0 7 12 2 7

Recreation:^

Small 1,174 77 16 75 156 57 75

Medium 70 10 0 23 42 10 23

Large 9 8 0 32 56 7 32

Wholesale and

other retail

trade:

Small 2,025 96 25 84 165 63 84

Medium 37 5 0 9 23 5 9

Large 3 2 0 0 0 0 0

Other services:

Small 1,631 62 14 54 109 43 54

Medium 22 5 0 6 11 3 6

Large 3 3 0 11 20 3 11

Governments of

counties and

large towns:

Small 8 8 0 20 43 8 20

Medium 13 13 0 36 74 13 36

Large 5 5 0 11 23 3 11

Other government:

Small 320 24 0 23 39 17 23

Medium 55 8 0 24 43 6 24

Large 11 11 0 23 54 9 23

Total 7,001 450 62 589 1,170 329 589

"»Smalt, fewer than 20 employees; medium, 20-99 employees; and large, 100 or more employees,

2Establishments that were part of the sample but had terminated operation by the survey date.

3|n situations where a household had more than one member employed by a list frame employer, we adjusted the household

expansion factor to reflect the household's increased probability of being selected.

^TCPU is transportation, communication, and public utilities. FIRE is finance, insurance, and real estate.

^Recreation includes eating and drinking places; hotels, motels, campgrounds; amusement and recreation services; and

museums.

31
The sampling rate of employees also varied by

establishment size. Employees in establishments

with 19 or fewer employees were sampled at a

rate of one in three. Employ^ees in establishments

with 20-99 employees were sampled at a rate of 1

in 15. And employees in establishments with 100

or more employees were sampled at a rate of 1 in

60. At least one employee or owner-operator was

sampled at every establishment.

The supplemental area frame sample for households and establishments was stratified into

eight classes, or strata, based on three land use

patterns, percentage of elderly residing in the

area, and proximity to a lake (app. table 2). Urban

strata generally had over 20 dwellings per square

mile; suburban strata were small towns with

generally 10-20 dwellings per square mile; and

rural strata were open country areas with generally

fewer than 20 dwellings per square mile. Elderfy

strata had at least 40 percent of their population

over age 65. Lake strata were located near reservoirs and did not have at least 40 percent of their

population over age 65. In the urban strata, a segment was approximately a city block; in the

suburban strata, the segment was about oneeighth of a square mile; and in the rural strata, a

segment was about 1 square mile. The segments

were sampled at varying rates ranging from 1 in 7

for the urban elderly strata to 1 in 56 for the rural

strata not near a lake and not having many elderly

people (app. table 2). The household sampling

rate within the sampled segments was one in

four for all area frame strata. Enumerators interviewed all establishments not included on the list

frame of establishments that were found in the

sampled segments.

The survey field work was divided into thrôe

phases. Phase 1 involved identifying households

and establishments in the area frame. The area

frame sample was a two-stage stratified cluster

design, where the first stage of sampling was the

segment and the second stage was the household

or establishment. Phase 2 involved interviewing

the selected list frame establishments and obtaining the employee list. Phase 3 required

screening area frame households and area frame

establishments. During phase 3, enumerators

also interviewed employee households obtained

from employer lists during phase 2. The

enumerators collected data by conducting personal interviews during the 1984 summer. The

questionnaires from households and employers

were edited to detect and correct omissions and

Inconsistencies. Completed questionnaires were

obtained from 545 private sector establishments,

72 public.sector units, and 1,159 households

which contained 1,719 members aged 16 and over

(app. table 3),

Appendix table 2—Area frame universe, sample segments, and completions for establishments and households,

by stratum

Segment

universe

Segments

sampled

Establishments Households

Stratum Segments with one or

more completions

Employer

completions

Segments with one

or more completions

Completions

HouseholdsHou seh ole m embe rs

Number

Urban elderly

Urban

349

375

50

40

19

9

58

11

28

21

49

31

38

27

Suburban elderly

Suburban lake

Suburban

536

263

466

72

34

40

16

8

17

38

9

28

62

21

32

232

50

96

185

50

98

Rural elderly

Rural lake

Rural

388

429

5.616

34

30

100

3

2

7

6

3

14

18

15

53

29

20

63

28

22

101

Total 8,422 400 81 167 250 570 549

32
Appendix table 3—Questionnaires completed by establishments and houseliolds, by sample frame

Sample frame

Establishment

questionnaires

completed

Household

questionnaires

completed

Questionnaires completed

for household members

16 years and older

Establishments:

Private sector

List frame

Area frame

Public sector

List frame

Area frame

Total establishments

Households:

List frame

Area frame

Total households

545

381

164

72

69

3

617

Number

589

570

1,159

1,170

549

1,719

— = Not applicable.

Appendix B: Calculation of Variance

Statistics

nh = the number of primary sample units in

the hth stratum, and

Tlie complexity of the survey design precluded

using simple random sample formulas to calculate certain variance statistics required to test

differences among means, proportions, and totals.

We estimated the variance statistics required for

testing using the following formulas. We used the

same formulas to calculate variances for the

population and for subclasses. In situations

where the subclass size was considerably less

than the total number of primary sample units

(establishments and area segments), the resulting

estimate may seriously underestimate the subclass variance (14). Unless otherwise noted, we

performed no statistical testing unless the

subclass contained at least 30 observations.

For the variance of total estimates, the formula

(14, p. 135)is:

V(Y)= L {1-fh)F^

n^ r nh

nh-1

E YHí -

Hh

fh = the primary sample unit sampling rate

for the hth stratum,

Fh = expansion factor for the hth stratum,

Yhi = the variable to be estimated within

the ith primary sample unit and hth

stratum where:

Yh = D Y.i

For the variance of ratio means, the formula (14,

p. 207) is:

V (R) = v(i-l= J_ [V(Y) + R2 V(X) - 2R COV ()(, Y)].

For the variance of a difference between two

ratio means or two totals, the formula (14, p. 209)

is:

V(R-R') = V(R) + V(R') - 2C0V(R,R').

We assumed the covariance term to be zero in all

comparisons in the report. Although the clustering aspect of the survey design may underestimate the variance if the covariance term is not included, we did not consider the bias serious (14).

ifU. Government Printing Office : 190" -lSO-917/602 33