BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

Brightline West Cajon Pass Project Operating Assumptions 

Memo 

1.0 Purpose 

This memo describes the high-speed rail operating plan including assumptions and inputs that were 

used in its development for the Brightline West (“BLW”) Cajon Pass Project (“Project”) between the

Victor Valley and Rancho Cucamonga, CA. 

2.0 Description of the Project 

The Project spans 49 miles from Apple Valley, California to Rancho Cucamonga, California with a stop in 

between at Hesperia, California which is to accommodate local service from Hesperia to Rancho 

Cucamonga. 

Two stations will be constructed, with three station tracks tapering to two main line tracks for the first 

three to five miles outside each station. Initially the corridor will be primarily single track, with one 

double track section approximately 5 miles long to facilitate rolling meets of two trains in opposite 

directions. The Rancho Cucamonga station will be located at the site of the current Rancho Cucamonga 

Metrolink station, providing the customer connectivity into Downtown LA and other areas of the Los 

Angeles Basin via existing public transportation. The Hesperia station will only be utilized for intercity 

rides to Rancho Cucamonga and not for interstate trips to Las Vegas; Brightline West will be enforcing 

coverage to ensure the correct ridership is accommodated. 

The infrastructure and operating plan are aligned to provide consistent service at 45-minute headways 

for the first 10 years of operations. Each trainset in the fleet can be coupled to a second set, forming one 

double-length train (herein referred to as a “coupled train”). Station platform lengths will initially be 

constructed to be 1,400 ft long to accommodate coupled trains. A growth strategy (outlined below) has 

been developed involving the procurement of additional train sets that operate as coupled trains, 

growing passenger capacity while holding the train schedule for the first 10 years. In year 11, additional 

infrastructure is planned to facilitate 22.5-minute headways. 

3.0 Description of Rolling Stock and Train Operations 

Brightline West will operate the Project using a fleet of high-speed electric trainsets powered by 

overhead catenary. Each train set has a 7-car consist with a total of approximately 400 seats. As 

previously stated, each 7-car set can be attached to a second set of equal length to form a coupled train, 

doubling capacity as demand grows (see “Matrix of Operating Plan” below).

The target Project trip time is 40 minutes including a stop at Hesperia between Apple Valley and Rancho 

Cucamonga. Scheduled run time for the full system is to be 140 minutes in travel time. A minimum 

turnaround of 30 minutes is planned at the Rancho Cucamonga Station (specific turnaround time for a 

given train depends on schedule), allowing sufficient time for boarding and alighting of guests and 

baggage, performing a light cleaning, and restocking onboard services, while also providing additional 

buffer time to absorb delays. 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 1 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

4.0 Operating Assumptions 

Brightline West will have hours of operations that are centered around first departure/last arrival from 

each station. The Rancho Cucamonga station and Victor Valley stations will operate from 6:00 am to 

12:30 am. The Las Vegas station will operate from 5:30 am to 1:30 am. An initial schedule has been 

established for the corridor with trains departing every 45 minutes, for a total of 23 departures in each 

direction every day, for the first 10 years. Fleet size and configuration is intended to scale with demand 

such that in year 11, the schedule will be modified to increase daily trains up to 45 in each direction, 

with 22.5-minute headways. 

Coupled 7-car trains allow the system to increase passenger capacity without adding to the rail 

infrastructure. BLW intends to begin operations coupling 1/3 of departures for the first 3 years of 

operations, then by coupling 2/3 of departures for the following 3 years, and then scaling up to 100% of 

departures with coupled trains by Year 7. Because the coupled trains need to make full roundtrips, the 

departures with coupled trains are evenly spread throughout the day. 

The Operating Plan is informed by studies and analysis conducted by transportation and infrastructure 

consultancy firm, Steer (referred to as “Steer Analysis”) 1. The Steer Analysis estimates the current and 

future size of the “in-scope” market, a subset of trips made between Las Vegas and Southern California

by travelers for whom high-speed rail service is a viable travel option (total demand); and then forecasts 

how much of this market high-speed rail can capture at a given fare (ridership estimates). 

The travel market in this corridor is punctuated by days and times of the day with exceptionally high 

demand which exceed the railroad’s capacity to carry passengers. This is particularly important on the 

weekends, where BLW projects demand to ride the train to frequently surpass the capacity of each 

departure. This capacity constraint drives the logic for an additional modification to get to the total 

ridership projections. Alongside interstate travel ridership (i.e. Rancho Cucamonga to/from Las Vegas), 

Steer has provided intercity hourly ridership forecasts (i.e. Rancho Cucamonga to/from Hesperia). While 

Steer projected only years 2027, 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045, BLW applied a percentage spread by hour 

to the missing years to achieve a full outlook encompassing the duration of this operating plan. 

The Total Ridership for interstate travel combined with the projected intercity travel ridership yields a 

“Total Yearly Ridership” count including the ridership between Victor Valley and Las Vegas. 

Specific operating plans have been developed for each year: 

• Years 1-3 

Beginning in Year 1, BLW expects to use coupled trains in 1/3 of the departures. Based on the modified 

forecast, in the first year of service, BLW expects to carry 6.0 million passengers. Ridership expands 

to 6.9 million by Year 3 without changing the fleet size. The Cajon Pass Project is expected to open in 

the middle of Year 1; thus, it will not be capturing a normalized years’ worth of customers.

• Years 4-6 

1 Confidential ridership data has been produced in two reports prepared in December 2019 and June 2020 by Steer with sufficient data to 

support the environmental analysis included in this report. FRA has reviewed the ridership methodology in the reports and confirmed it is 

based on reliable methods; and has accepted the analysis. 

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BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

In Year 4, additional trains are added to the existing fleet to provide coupled trains for 2/3 of 

departures. In Year 4, ridership grows to 8.0 million and grows slightly to 8.1 million in Year 6. 

• Years 7-10 

Beginning in Year 7, additional trainsets are added to the existing fleet so that all trainsets operate as 

coupled trains in order to meet demand. Ridership grows from 8.9 million in Year 7 to 9.2 million in 

Year 10. 

• Years 11-20 

Beginning in Year 11, construction of additional track infrastructure is necessary in order to 

accommodate 22.5-minute headways. Ridership grows from 11.3 million in Year 11 to 12.3 million in 

Year 20. 

A Matrix of Operating Plans and System Capacity for Years 1 to 20 as well as a daily time schedule for train 

trips are found on the following pages2. 

2 Stringline charts for train trips located in Appendix B. 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 3 
 

 

BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

Matrix of Operating Plans and System Capacity (Years 1 to 10) 3 

Years Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 

Description of 

Service and 

Infrastructure 

A train 

every 45 

min in 

each 

direction, 

every day, 

single 

track with 

4 passing 

siding 

track 

sections, 

7-car 

trains, 1/3 

of trains 

coupled 

Idem Idem 

A train 

every 45 

min in 

each 

direction, 

every day, 

single 

track with 

4 passing 

siding 

track 

sections, 

7-car 

trains, 2/3 

of trains 

coupled 

Idem Idem 

A train 

every 45 

min in 

each 

direction, 

every day, 

single 

track with 

4 passing 

siding 

track 

sections, 

7-car 

trains, all 

trains 

coupled 

Idem Idem Idem 

Daily Runs 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 

Weekly Runs 322 322 322 322 322 322 322 322 322 322 

Annual Runs 16,790 16,790 16,790 16,790 16,790 16,790 16,790 16,790 16,790 16,790 

Cars per train 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 

Trainset 

Capacity 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 

Coupled Trains 33% 33% 33% 67% 67% 67% 100% 100% 100% 100% 

Steer Demand 

(one-way) 49,100,000 49,800,000 50,500,000 51,300,000 52,000,000 52,800,000 53,500,000 54,200,000 54,900,000 55,600,000 

Induced 

Ridership (OW) 693,937 1,100,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 

Total Captured 

Ridership 6,926,721 9,161,110 9,728,613 9,809,685 9,890,756 10,052,900 10,133,972 10,296,115 10,458,259 10,539,331 

Capacity 8,932,280 8,932,280 8,932,280 11,215,720 11,215,720 11,215,720 13,432,000 13,432,000 13,432,000 13,432,000 

Yearly LV-RC 

Ridership (excl. 

VV) 

4,887,159 5,090,657 5,155,902 6,016,784 6,032,676 6,074,151 6,650,222 6,705,868 6,763,142 6,786,148 

Yearly LV-VV-RC 

Ridership 5,642,151 6,379,108 6,482,985 7,533,376 7,562,909 7,621,750 8,351,399 8,428,022 8,504,214 8,542,209 

Yearly HESP-RC 

Ridership 379,919 430,319 451,173 507,854 517,286 526,313 582,818 594,044 603,211 613,325 

Total Yearly 

Ridership 6,022,070 6,809,427 6,934,158 8,041,230 8,080,195 8,148,063 8,934,217 9,022,066 9,107,425 9,155,534 

3 Source: Steer Analysis, Brightline West 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 4 
 

 

 

BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

Matrix of Operating Plans and System Capacity (Years 11 to 20) 4 

Years Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20 

Description of 

Service and 

Infrastructure 

A train 

every 

22/23 min 

in each 

direction, 

every day, 

single 

track with 

9 passing 

siding 

track 

sections, 

7-car 

trains, all 

trains 

being 

coupled 

(doubleunit trains) 

Idem Idem Idem Idem Idem Idem Idem Idem Idem 

Daily Runs 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 

Weekly Runs 630 630 630 630 630 630 630 630 630 630 

Annual Runs 32,850 32,850 32,850 32,850 32,850 32,850 32,850 32,850 32,850 32,850 

Cars per train 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 

Trainset 

Capacity 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 

Coupled Trains 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 

Steer Demand 

(one-way) 56,400,000 57,100,000 57,900,000 58,700,000 59,400,000 60,200,000 60,900,000 61,600,000 62,400,000 63,100,000 

Induced 

Ridership (OW) 1,400,000 1,400,000 1,400,000 1,400,000 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 

Total Assumed 

Ridership 11,377,955 11,550,348 11,636,545 11,808,938 11,981,332 12,067,528 12,239,921 12,412,315 12,498,511 12,670,905 

Capacity 26,864,000 26,864,000 26,864,000 26,864,000 26,864,000 26,864,000 26,864,000 26,864,000 26,864,000 26,864,000 

Yearly LV-RC 

Ridership (excl. 

VV) 

9,110,416 9,223,932 9,278,807 9,387,739 9,495,012 9,548,509 9,655,100 9,761,447 9,814,621 9,920,969 

Yearly LV-VVRC Ridership 10,567,539 10,699,344 10,763,101 10,889,789 11,014,819 11,077,194 11,201,541 11,325,645 11,387,698 11,511,802 

Yearly Hes-RC 

Ridership 689,520 724,197 743,011 762,043 766,937 771,865 776,791 781,750 786,741 791,766 

Total Yearly 

Ridership 11,257,059 11,423,541 11,506,112 11,651,832 11,781,756 11,849,058 11,978,332 12,107,395 12,174,439 12,303,567 

4 Source: Steer Analysis, Brightline West 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 5 
 

BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

Train Schedule: Train every 45 min in each direction, every day, single track with 4 passing siding 

sections 

Northbound Train # 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 116 118 120 122 124 126 

Rancho C. Dep 6:33 7:18 8:03 8:48 9:33 10:18 11:03 11:48 12:33 13:18 14:03 14:48 15:33 

Hesperia Arr 6:56 7:41 8:26 9:11 9:56 10:41 11:26 12:11 12:56 13:41 14:26 15:11 15:56 

Hesperia Dep 6:58 7:43 8:28 9:13 9:58 10:43 11:28 12:13 12:58 13:43 14:28 15:13 15:58 

Apple Valley Arr 7:13 7:58 8:43 9:28 10:13 10:58 11:43 12:28 13:13 13:58 14:43 15:28 16:13 

Apple Valley Dep 7:16 8:01 8:46 9:31 10:16 11:01 11:46 12:31 13:16 14:01 14:46 15:31 16:16 

Las Vegas Arr 8:53 9:38 10:23 11:08 11:53 12:38 13:23 14:08 14:53 15:38 16:23 17:08 17:53 

Train # 128 130 132 134 136 138 140 142 144 146 

Rancho C. Dep 16:18 17:03 17:48 18:33 19:18 20:03 20:48 21:33 22:18 23:03 

Hesperia Arr 16:41 17:26 18:11 18:56 19:41 20:26 21:11 21:56 22:41 23:26 

Hesperia Dep 16:43 17:28 18:13 18:58 19:43 20:28 21:13 21:58 22:43 23:28 

Apple Valley Arr 16:58 17:43 18:28 19:13 19:58 20:43 21:28 22:13 22:58 23:43 

Apple Valley Dep 17:01 17:46 18:31 19:16 20:01 20:46 21:31 22:16 23:01 23:46 

Las Vegas Arr 18:38 19:23 20:08 20:53 21:38 22:23 23:08 23:53 0:38 1:23 

Southbound Train # 101 103 105 107 109 111 113 115 117 119 121 123 125 

Las Vegas Dep 5:47 6:32 7:17 8:02 8:47 9:32 10:17 11:02 11:47 12:32 13:17 14:02 14:47 

Apple Valley Arr 7:24 8:09 8:54 9:39 10:24 11:09 11:54 12:39 13:24 14:09 14:54 15:39 16:24 

Apple Valley Dep 7:27 8:12 8:57 9:42 10:27 11:12 11:57 12:42 13:27 14:12 14:57 15:42 16:27 

Hesperia Arr 7:42 8:27 9:12 9:57 10:42 11:27 12:12 12:57 13:42 14:27 15:12 15:57 16:42 

Hesperia Dep 7:44 8:29 9:14 9:59 10:44 11:29 12:14 12:59 13:44 14:29 15:14 15:59 16:44 

Rancho C. Arr 8:07 8:52 9:37 10:22 11:07 11:52 12:37 13:22 14:07 14:52 15:37 16:22 17:07 

Train # 127 129 131 133 135 137 139 141 143 145 

Las Vegas Dep 15:32 16:17 17:02 17:47 18:32 19:21 20:02 20:47 21:32 22:17 

Apple Valley Arr 17:09 17:54 18:39 19:24 20:09 20:54 21:39 22:24 23:09 23:54 

Apple Valley Dep 17:12 17:57 18:42 19:27 20:12 20:57 21:42 22:27 23:12 23:57 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 6 
 

BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

Hesperia Arr 17:27 18:12 18:57 19:42 20:27 21:12 21:57 22:42 23:27 0:12 

Hesperia Dep 17:29 18:14 18:59 19:44 20:29 21:14 21:59 22:44 23:29 0:14 

Rancho C. Arr 17:52 18:37 19:22 20:07 20:52 21:37 22:22 23:07 23:52 0:37 

Train Schedule: Train every 22.5 mins in each direction, every day, single track with 9 passing siding 

track sections 

Northbound Train # 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 116 118 120 122 124 126 

Rancho C. Dep 6:33 6:55 7:18 7:40 8:03 8:25 8:48 9:10 9:33 9:55 10:18 10:40 11:03 

Hesperia Arr 6:56 7:18 7:41 8:03 8:26 8:48 9:11 9:33 9:56 10:18 10:41 11:03 11:26 

Hesperia Dep 6:58 7:20 7:43 8:05 8:28 8:50 9:13 9:35 9:58 10:20 10:43 11:05 11:28 

Victor Valley Arr 7:13 7:35 7:58 8:20 8:43 9:05 9:28 9:50 10:13 10:35 10:58 11:20 11:43 

Victor Valley Dep 7:16 7:38 8:01 8:23 8:46 9:08 9:31 9:53 10:16 10:38 11:01 11:23 11:46 

Las Vegas Arr 8:53 9:15 9:38 10:00 10:23 10:45 11:08 11:30 11:53 12:15 12:38 13:00 13:23 

Train # 128 130 132 134 136 138 140 142 144 146 148 150 152 

Rancho C. Dep 11:25 11:48 12:10 12:33 12:55 13:18 13:40 14:03 14:25 14:48 15:10 15:33 15:55 

Hesperia Arr 11:48 12:11 12:33 12:56 13:18 13:41 14:03 14:26 14:48 15:11 15:33 15:56 16:18 

Hesperia Dep 11:50 12:13 12:35 12:58 13:20 13:43 14:05 14:28 14:50 15:13 15:35 15:58 16:20 

Victor Valley Arr 12:05 12:28 12:50 13:13 13:35 13:58 14:20 14:43 15:05 15:28 15:50 16:13 16:35 

Victor Valley Dep 12:08 12:31 12:53 13:16 13:38 14:01 14:23 14:46 15:08 15:31 15:53 16:16 16:38 

Las Vegas Arr 13:45 14:08 14:30 14:53 15:15 15:38 16:00 16:23 16:45 17:08 17:30 17:53 18:15 

Train # 154 156 158 160 162 164 166 168 170 172 174 176 178 

Rancho C. Dep 16:18 16:40 17:03 17:25 17:48 18:10 18:33 18:55 19:18 19:40 20:03 20:25 20:48 

Hesperia Arr 16:41 17:03 17:26 17:48 18:11 18:33 18:56 19:18 19:41 20:03 20:26 20:48 21:11 

Hesperia Dep 16:43 17:05 17:28 17:50 18:13 18:35 18:58 19:20 19:43 20:05 20:28 20:50 21:13 

Victor Valley Arr 16:58 17:20 17:43 18:05 18:28 18:50 19:13 19:35 19:58 20:20 20:43 21:05 21:28 

Victor Valley Dep 17:01 17:23 17:46 18:08 18:31 18:53 19:16 19:38 20:01 20:23 20:46 21:08 21:31 

Las Vegas Arr 18:38 19:00 19:23 19:45 20:08 20:30 20:53 21:15 21:38 22:00 22:23 22:45 23:08 

Train # 180 182 184 186 188 190 

Rancho C. Dep. 21:10 21:33 21:55 22:18 22:40 23:03 

Hesperia Arr 21:33 21:56 22:18 22:41 23:03 23:26 

Hesperia Dep 21:35 21:58 22:20 22:43 23:05 23:28 

Victor Valley Arr 21:50 22:13 22:35 22:58 23:20 23:43 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 7 
BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

Victor Valley Dep 21:53 22:16 22:38 23:01 23:23 23:46 

Las Vegas Arr 23:30 23:53 0:15 0:38 01:00 1:23 

Southbound Train # 101 103 105 107 109 111 113 115 117 119 121 123 125 

Las Vegas Dep 5:47 6:09 6:32 6:54 7:17 7:39 8:02 8:24 8:47 9:09 9:32 9:54 10:17 

Apple Valley Arr 7:24 7:46 8:09 8:31 8:54 9:16 9:39 10:01 10:24 10:46 11:09 11:31 11:54 

Apple Valley Dep 7:27 7:49 8:12 8:34 8:57 9:19 9:42 10:04 10:27 10:49 11:12 11:34 11:57 

Hesperia Arr 7:42 8:04 8:27 8:49 9:12 9:34 9:57 10:19 10:42 11:04 11:27 11:49 12:12 

Hesperia Dep 7:44 8:06 8:29 8:51 9:14 9:36 9:59 10:21 10:44 11:06 11:29 11:51 12:14 

Rancho C. Arr 8:07 8:29 8:52 9:14 9:37 9:59 10:22 10:44 11:07 11:29 11:52 12:14 12:37 

Train # 127 129 131 133 135 137 139 141 143 145 147 149 151 

Las Vegas Dep. 10:39 11:02 11:24 11:47 12:09 12:32 12:54 13:17 13:39 14:02 14:24 14:47 15:09 

Apple Valley Arr. 12:16 12:39 13:01 13:24 13:46 14:09 14:31 14:54 15:16 15:39 16:01 16:24 16:46 

Apple Valley Dep 12:19 12:42 13:04 13:27 13:49 14:12 14:34 14:57 15:19 15:42 16:04 16:27 16:49 

Hesperia Arr 12:34 12:57 13:19 13:42 14:04 14:27 14:49 15:12 15:34 15:57 16:19 16:42 17:04 

Hesperia Dep 12:36 12:59 13:21 13:44 14:06 14:29 14:51 15:14 15:36 15:59 16:21 16:44 17:06 

Rancho C. Arr 12:59 13:22 13:44 14:07 14:29 14:52 15:14 15:37 15:59 16:22 16:44 17:07 17:29 

Train # 153 155 157 159 161 163 165 167 169 171 173 175 177 

Las Vegas Dep. 15:32 15:54 16:17 16:39 17:02 17:24 17:47 18:09 18:32 18:54 19:17 19:39 20:02 

Apple Valley Arr. 17:09 17:31 17:54 18:16 18:39 19:01 19:24 19:46 20:09 20:31 20:54 21:16 21:39 

Apple Valley Dep 17:12 17:34 17:57 18:19 18:42 19:04 19:27 19:49 20:12 20:34 20:57 21:19 21:42 

Hesperia Arr 17:27 17:49 18:12 18:34 18:57 19:19 19:42 20:04 20:27 20:49 21:12 21:34 21:57 

Hesperia Dep 17:29 17:51 18:14 18:36 18:59 19:21 19:44 20:06 20:29 20:51 21:14 21:36 21:59 

Rancho C. Arr 17:52 18:14 18:37 18:59 19:22 19:44 20:07 20:29 20:52 21:14 21:37 21:59 22:22 

Train # 179 181 183 185 187 189 

Las Vegas Dep. 20:24 20:47 21:09 21:32 21:54 22:17 

Apple Valley Arr. 22:01 22:24 22:46 23:09 23:31 23:54 

Apple Valley Dep 22:04 22:27 22:49 23:12 23:34 23:57 

Hesperia Arr 22:19 22:42 23:04 23:27 23:49 0:12 

Hesperia Dep 22:21 22:44 23:06 23:29 23:51 0:14 

Rancho C. Arr 22:44 23:07 23:29 23:52 0:14 0:37 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 8 
BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

Projected Corresponding Metrolink Schedule 

Eastbound 

LAUS Dep 5:07 5:37 6:33 7:07 8:07 8:37 9:37 10:07 11:07 11:37 12:37 13:07 14:07 

Rancho C. Arr 6:15 6:45 7:41 8:15 9:15 9:45 10:45 11:15 12:15 12:45 1:45 14:15 15:15 

LAUS Dep 14:37 15:37 16:07 17:10 17:37 18:37 19:07 19:37 20:37 21:37 

Rancho C. Arr 15:45 16:45 17:15 18:18 18:45 19:45 20:15 20:45 21:45 22:45 

Westbound 

Rancho C. Dep 8:14 9:14 9:44 10:44 11:14 12:14 12:44 13:44 14:14 15:14 15:44 16:44 17:14 

LAUS Arr 9:22 10:22 10:52 11:52 12:22 13:22 13:52 14:52 15:22 16:22 16:52 17:52 18:22 

Rancho C. Dep 18:14 18:44 20:14 21:14 22:14 

LAUS Arr 19:22 19:52 21:22 22:22 23:22 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 9 
BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

Map of Brightline West System Route 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 10 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

5.0 Assumed Mode of Transit 

Rancho Cucamonga Station: 

Rancho Cucamonga Traveler Types: 

The Rancho Cucamonga Station sees two traveler types: 

1) “Interstate Travelers” – People who travel between Rancho Cucamonga and the Las Vegas area 

2) “Intercity Travelers” – People who travel between Rancho Cucamonga and Hesperia stations 

Rancho Cucamonga Interstate Travelers: 

The vast majority of interstate travelers who access the Rancho Cucamonga station originate their trip in 

Southern California (i.e. Southern California residents), travel to Las Vegas and return home. There are 

two modes for which a customer can travel to a station: by automobile or by rail. It is assumed the 

customer split between the two modes are as follows: 

1) 77% of customers will access the station via automobile 

2) 23% of customers will access the station via rail on Metrolink 

Of the customers accessing the station via automobile, it is anticipated that the majority are driving 

private vehicles to the station. The assumption on number of people who drive private vehicles to the 

station is consistent with the assumption for the Victor Valley station in the previously permitted Victor 

Valley to Las Vegas submission (70% of passengers). The people who access the station via private vehicle 

are split into two categories: 

1) “Self-Drive and Park” – these passengers drive, park at the available parking and leave their car 

until they return from their trip to Nevada 

2) “Pick Up / Drop Off” – these passengers are transported to and from the station via an unpaid 

service (i.e. family or friend) whose car does not remain parked for an extended period of time at 

the station 

Given that the customer base for this station stretches a great distance geographically, it is assumed that 

it is far more likely that a customer using a private car will have to “Self-Drive and Park” rather than access

via “Pick Up / Drop Off” given that car drivers may have to drive a far distance simply to drop-off the 

traveler. Thus, “Pick Up / Drop Off” represents a small percentage of the projected 70% of people who

get to the station via-private vehicle. 

In addition to this, it is assumed that public transit and TNC / taxis options will split the remainder of the 

access options. The planned transit-hub in Rancho Cucamonga is expected to include the convergence of 

several bus and shuttle routes, the Metrolink service and an airport tunnel to Ontario International 

Airport. The assumption that 30% of the travelers access this station via modes that are not private cars 

is also consistent with the assumption for the Victor Valley station in the previously permitted Victor 

Valley to Las Vegas submission (30% of passengers split evenly between TNC at 15% and public transit / 

shuttles at 15%). It is anticipated that the ~20% of travelers who are expected to originate in the Las Vegas 

area will be frequent users of TNC/taxi, shuttle and public transit options (these are people who generally 

do not have personal cars in Southern California). 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 11 
 

 

 

 

 

 

BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

Mode Share Assumptions for Interstate Travelers at the Rancho Cucamonga Station: 

77% of all customers will travel by the station via automobile while the remaining 23% are assumed to 

travel via Metrolink. 

HSR Passengers 

Mode of Transit % Usage for 

passengers 

accessing station 

(Auto and Rail) 

% Usage for 

passengers 

accessing station 

via automobile 

(77% of total)5 

Average Vehicle 

Occupancy (AVO) 

Passenger Car 

Equivalents (PCEs) 

Self-Drive and Park 51% 66% 1.856 1 

Pick Up / Drop Off 3% 4% 1.857 1 

TNC (Uber, Lyft) / 

Taxi 

11.5% 15% 1.85 1 

Public transit / 

Shuttles 

11.5% 15% 20 1.5 

Access via 

Metrolink 

23% 

Rancho Cucamonga Intercity Travelers: 

Most of the demand for the Intercity Service originates in the Victor Valley area, boards at the Hesperia 

station in the morning, deboards in the Rancho Cucamonga station in the morning and then heads back 

to board at the Rancho Cucamonga station in the afternoon for the return to the Victor Valley area.8 Thus, 

the majority mode uses at the Rancho Cucamonga station will not involve parked cars but rather other 

modes such as TNC / taxis, Metrolink, bus or other shuttles. Private Pick Up / Drop Off (i.e. work related 

pick-ups) will also occur but not at the frequency as the other modes previously mentioned. 

5 All figures in this column equal the column to the left, representing the percent usage for passengers assessing the station in total, multiplied 

by 77%, which represents the percentage of the people who access the station via automobile and removes those accessing via Metrolink. 6 Steer Analysis 

7 AVOs does not include driver. 

8 Steer Analysis 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 12 
 

 

 

 

BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

Mode Share Assumptions for Intercity Travelers at the Rancho Cucamonga Station: 

Intercity Passengers 

Mode of Transit % Usage Average Vehicle 

Occupancy (AVO) 

Passenger Car 

Equivalents (PCEs) 

Self-Drive and Park 1% 1.189 1 

TNC (Uber, Lyft) / Taxi 50% 1.00 1 

Pick Up / Drop Off 15% 1.0010 1 

Public Transit / Shuttles 34% 20 1.5 

Rancho Cucamonga Employee Access: 

The analysis assumes that 100% of employees self-drive and park at the station with an average vehicle 

occupancy of 1.18 passengers/vehicle. 11 

Employees 

Mode of Transit % Usage Average Vehicle 

Occupancy (AVO) 

Passenger Car 

Equivalents (PCEs) 

Private Vehicles 100%12 1.18 1 

Hesperia Station: 

Hesperia Traveler Types: 

The Hesperia Station only sees a single traveler type: The “Intercity Traveler” going between the Hesperia

and the Rancho Cucamonga stations. 

Hesperia Intercity Passengers: 

The Hesperia Station users are Intercity Travelers, the majority of whom originate in the Victor Valley 

region (thus, originate their journey at the Hesperia station). Due to this, BLW anticipates the majority of 

riders will drive private vehicles to the station. Private vehicle use is assumed to be at a slightly higher rate 

than assumed for “Interstate Service” at the Rancho Cucamonga station (70% of travelers vs. 66% for 

9 Nationwide commute trip averages from National Household Travel Survey. 10 Pick Up/Drop Off occupancy does not include driver. 11 Nationwide commute trip averages from National Household Travel Survey. 12 100% assumed to be self-drive + park. 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 13 
 

 

 

 

 

BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

Interstate Travel at the Rancho Cucamonga station). Additionally, it is projected that the likelihood of 

“Drop Offs” will be higher than for Interstate Travelers at the Rancho Cucamonga station as it is expected 

that the patron dropping off the traveler has a shorter average travel distance to the station for the 

Intercity Service. 

While TNC/Taxi options are included in the analysis as a potential mode option at this station, it is not 

assumed to be highly utilized at this station given that the cost of the TNC/Taxi ride will be a high 

percentage of the overall travel cost for this trip (whereas the TNC/Taxi ride is a lower percentage of the 

overall trip cost for the Interstate Service). Public transit, such as public buses, will be more common as a 

lower cost option to access the station. 

Hesperia Mode Share Assumptions: 

Intercity Passengers 

Mode of Transit % Usage Average Vehicle 

Occupancy (AVO) 

Passenger Car 

Equivalents (PCEs) 

Self-Drive and Park 70% 1.1813 1 

TNC (Uber, Lyft) / Taxi 5% 1.00 1 

Pick Up / Drop Off 10% 1.0014 1 

Public Transit / Shuttles 15% 20 1.5 

Hesperia Employee Access: 

The analysis assumes that 100% of employees self-drive and park at the station with an average vehicle 

occupancy of 1.18 passengers/vehicle. 15 

Employees 

Mode of Transit % Usage Average Vehicle 

Occupancy (AVO) 

Passenger Car 

Equivalents (PCEs) 

Private Vehicles 100%16 1.18 1 

13 Nationwide commute trip averages from National Household Travel Survey. 14 Pick Up/Drop Off occupancy does not include driver. 15 Nationwide commute trip averages from National Household Travel Survey. 16 100% assumed to be self-drive + park. 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 14 
 

BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

6.0 Employees 

Total Employees 

While there are two stations for the Project, the Hesperia station is expected to serve local travelers 

only and will be built at a much smaller scale. The Rancho Cucamonga station will be similar to the 

station planned in Las Vegas on the northern end of the system. The added employees for the Project 

will be split into two types. 

1. Station Employees 

2. On-Train Employees 

As a result of the Project, BLW expects to employ approximately 250 people in Year 1. With service 

ramping from opening year to Year 20, BLW expects total employee count to grow. 

Given the station locations, it is expected that these employees will be Southern California based. Due to 

the nature of the Rancho Cucamonga station being the terminus and most trafficked, it is anticipated 

most station workers will be based at this station while the smaller number of workers will be based at 

the Victor Valley station. As mentioned above, it is assumed all employees arrive to work via private 

vehicle. 

Approximately half of all on-board employees are assumed to be based in California with the other half 

based in Nevada. This means that half of the on-board employees will utilize either Rancho Cucamonga 

or Victor Valley station as their train entry point. 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 15 
BRIGHTLINE WEST HIGH-SPEED TRAIN FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION 

7.0 Induced Demand & Diversion from Other Modes of Travel 

Steer forecasts ridership come from two subsets: 1) Captured Trips and 2) Induced Trips. Captured trips 

are rides from people who would have otherwise made the trip through a different available mode of 

transit (i.e. plane or automobile). Induced trips are defined as a trip which is not currently being made 

today (by any existing mode), but which is forecast to be made in the future as a result of the HSR 

infrastructure being in place. In the Steer Analysis, Induced Trips represented 9.9% of Total Trips. BLW 

uses this assumption as the basis for our expected split between captured trips and induced trips.17 

Market A 

% of Current 

B 

% Captured vs. Induced18

A x B = C 

Pro-Forma Split 

Captured Demand19 100% 90.1% 90.1% 

Automobile 83% 74.8% 

Plane 17% 15.3% 

Induced Demand 0% 9.9% 9.9% 

% Total 100% 100% 100% 

17 Steer Analysis, Brightline West 

18 Steer Analysis, Brightline West. 

1917% of the “captured ridership” from existing air travel and 83% from automobile traffic (split between passenger cars and bus). Excludes 

passengers originating in Northern California and Intercity Transit trips. 

OCTOBER 17, 2022 PAGE 16