D.C. TO RICHMOND SOUTHEAST HIGH SPEED RAIL

RIDERSHIP J
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RIDERSHIP 

J-1: RIDERSHIP FORECASTING TECHNICAL REPORT ................................................................ J-2 

J-2: SURVEY TECHNICAL REPORT ............................................................................................... J-108 

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RIDERSHIP FORECASTING TECHNICAL REPORT J-1
Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail i Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1-1

2. RIDERSHIP FORECASTING METHODOLOGY .................................................................. 2-1

2.1 Geographic Scope of Analysis .................................................................................................. 2-2

2.2 Demographic Assumptions ...................................................................................................... 2-8

2.3 Supply ........................................................................................................................................ 2-11

2.3.1 Highway System ....................................................................................................... 2-12

2.3.2 Aviation ...................................................................................................................... 2-15

2.3.3 Corridor Bus Services ............................................................................................... 2-17 

2.3.4 High-Speed Rail ......................................................................................................... 2-18

2.3.5 Regional Rail .............................................................................................................. 2-19

2.3 Transportation Level-of-Service Measures ........................................................................... 2-21

2.4 All-Mode Long Distance Travel Demand ............................................................................ 2-23

2.5 Mode Choice Model ................................................................................................................ 2-26

2.6 Model Calibration .................................................................................................................... 2-29

2.7 Sensitivity Testing .................................................................................................................... 2-32

2.7.1 Sensitivity to Future Demographics ....................................................................... 2-32

2.7.2 Sensitivity to Service Changes ................................................................................. 2-32

2.8 Overall Suitability for Forecasting ......................................................................................... 2-34

3. OVERVIEW OF ALTERNATIVES ........................................................................................... 3-1

3.1 No Build Definition ................................................................................................................... 3-1

3.2 Definition of Build Alternatives ............................................................................................... 3-1

3.2.1 Single Richmond Station Options ............................................................................. 3-1

3.2.2 Downtown/Suburban Station Combination Options ........................................... 3-2

4. YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS .................................................................................... 4-1

4.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 4-1

4.2 Year 2025 Annual Station Ridership ....................................................................................... 4-1

4.3 Year 2025 Annual Market-Level Ridership ............................................................................ 4-1
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D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail ii Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

4.4 Year 2025 Station Ridership by Train Type ............................................................................ 4-2

4.5 Year 2025 Other Ridership-Related Statistics ......................................................................... 4-8

5. YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS .................................................................................... 5-1

5.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 5-1

5.2 Year 2045 Annual Station Ridership ....................................................................................... 5-1

5.3 Year 2045 Annual Market-Level Ridership ............................................................................ 5-1

5.4 Year 2045 Station Ridership by Train Type ............................................................................ 5-2

5.5 Year 2045 Other Ridership-Related Statistics ......................................................................... 5-8

APPENDIX—EXISTING RAIL SCHEDULE ...................................................................................... A-1
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 1-1 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

INTRODUCTION 

This Technical Report describes the methodology, alternatives, and results of the ridership 

forecasting process for the Washington, D.C. to Richmond (DC2RVA) segment of the Southeast 

High Speed Rail (SEHSR) Environmental Impact Statement. It is organized into five chapters and 

an appendix that present: 

• A description of the ridership forecasting methodology and an assessment of its 

validation against existing, observed ridership patterns in the corridor. This methodology 

was tested by conducting a series of sensitivity tests that were compared to Amtrak’s own 

experience with the ridership impacts of service changes. This test is designed to confirm 

that the model responds appropriately to frequency, speed, and reliability improvements. 

• A brief description of each No Build and Build Alternative. 

• Ridership forecasting results for the Year 2025. 

• Ridership forecasting results for the Year 2045. 

• An appendix that shows the rail schedule used to calibrate the model for existing 

conditions. This schedule also shows the scope of what is included in the modeling 

system—trains in and through the DC2RVA corridor, trains operating in the NEC from 

Washington, D.C. and north, and trains operating within North Carolina. 

1 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-1 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

RIDERSHIP FORECASTING METHODOLOGY 

This chapter describes the forecasting model developed to predict rail ridership for the 

Washington, D.C. to Richmond (DC2RVA) segment of the Southeast High Speed Rail (SEHSR) 

Project. This methodology is designed to be generally consistent with the assumptions and many 

of the methodologies used in similar planning efforts in adjoining corridors. In particular, the 

fundamental model structure and key demographic forecasts are based on work conducted for 

the Federal Railroad Administration as part of the NEC FUTURE project1. The geographic scope 

and some model parameters for the areas south of the DC2RVA corridor were obtained from the 

models used to forecast ridership for the Southeast High-Speed Rail (Raleigh to Richmond) Tier 

II Study2. 

The model was customized to the DC2RVA corridor based on corridor-specific ridership count 

data obtained from Amtrak, a survey of Amtrak customers traveling in the corridor, and a survey 

of all travelers to and from the corridor. The survey data was used to update the NEC FUTURE 

demand models for application to the DC2RVA market. The models were then calibrated to 

match the observed Amtrak ridership patterns. 

An initial version of the DC2RVA model was reviewed by Amtrak to confirm that the model’s 

sensitivity to travel time (speed), frequency, and on-time performance matched Amtrak 

experience with the effects of these factors on ridership. In several cases, the modeled sensitivities 

to rail service characteristics were adjusted to be more consistent with Amtrak’s experience. 

The remainder of this chapter describes the model developed and calibrated for the DC2RVA 

Project. 

 

1 NEC FUTURE is the Tier I Environmental Impact Statement for the Northeast Corridor. This study considered HighSpeed and Regional Rail improvements for the corridor between Richmond, Virginia and Boston Massachusetts with 

a particular focus on the spine of the Northeast Corridor between Washington and Boston. All current DC2RVA trains 

and most future DC2RVA trains will be fully integrated with trains in the Northeast corridor and will operate north of 

Washington to New York. 

2 The Raleigh to Richmond EIS is important to the DC2RVA market since the North Carolina trains that are part of that 

project will operate north of Richmond to Washington, D.C. and New York. Many of the Raleigh to Richmond service 

improvements are dependent on capacity enhancements associated with the DC2RVA Project. 

2 
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2.1 GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF ANALYSIS 

The DC2RVA ridership forecasting models are designed to nest within the geographic analysis 

structures used for both the NEC FUTURE model and the SEHSR EIS model. For areas in the 

Northeast Corridor, north of the Washington, D.C. area, the model uses the same zone structure 

(and underlying assumptions) as the NEC FUTURE Model. For areas south and west of 

Richmond and Hampton Roads, the model uses counties (or county-equivalents) contained 

within the boundaries of the SEHSR forecasting model. In the primary DC2RVA corridor 

including Hampton Roads, Richmond, Fredericksburg, and Washington, D.C., the DC2RVA 

model uses aggregations of local MPO zones. Since station location will be a particular issue in 

Richmond, individual MPO zones are used in the core areas of the City of Richmond without any 

aggregation. 

Figure 2-1 presents an overview of the zone system for the entire modeling area. Figure 2-2 

presents the zones in the D.C. to Richmond corridor and Figure 2-3 presents the zone system in 

the Richmond area. 

For purposes of calibration and detailed reporting, zones are aggregated to districts that 

correspond to the Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (CMSA) definitions used in both 

the NEC FUTURE model and the SEHSR model. These CMSA districts are presented in Figure 

2-4 (southern part of the modeling area) and Figure 2-5 (northern part of the modeling area). 

These CMSA districts are further collapsed into super districts for summary reporting. These 

super districts are defined as: 

 New England: All CMSAs north of the New York CMSA 

 NEC: All CMSAs between and including Baltimore and New York 

 Washington: the Washington, D.C. CMSA 

 Richmond: the Richmond CMSA 

 Tidewater: The Virginia Beach and Williamsburg-Hampton CMSA 

 Other VA: All other CMSAs in Virginia 

 NC: All CMSAs in North Carolina 
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FIGURE 2-1: OVERVIEW OF ZONE SYSTEM FOR THE ENTIRE MODELING AREA 
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FIGURE 2-2: ZONE SYSTEM IN THE DC2RVA CORRIDOR 
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FIGURE 2-3: ZONE SYSTEM IN THE RICHMOND AREA 
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FIGURE 2-4: CMSA DISTRICT SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN PORTION OF MODELING AREA 
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FIGURE 2-5: CMSA DISTRICT SYSTEM IN NORTHERN PORTION OF MODELING AREA 

Note: Rhode Island is in the Providence CMSA District 
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2.2 DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS 

Demographic assumptions include estimates of current and future population and employment 

in the modeling area for each Traffic Analysis Zone. Data were obtained from the following 

sources: 

 Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. Round 8.4 TAZ forecasts of population 

and employment for the period between 2010 and 2040 in five year increments. MWCOG 

projections of population and employment are used for all part of the MWCOG forecasting 

region except: 

o St Mary’s County which is outside of the modeling region 

o Stafford, King George, and Spotsylvania Counties and the City of Fredericksburg 

which are included in the Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization 

database 

 Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (MWCOG). Model 3.0 TAZ 

forecasts of population and employment for the period between 2010 and 2040 in 10 year 

increments 

 Richmond Regional Planning District Commission. (April 2015 Redacted Version) 

 Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization (Model inputs from 2009 LRTP) 

 NEC FUTURE model for all zones in the modeling area north of the areas included in the 

MWCOG modeling area 

 Woods & Poole County-level forecasts of population and employment for areas south and 

west of Richmond and Hampton Roads. This is the same data series used in the Virginia 

Department of Transportation statewide models 

These data sources were combined into a single region-wide GIS layer with estimates of 

population and employment by zone between 2015 and 2050 in 5-year increments. Interpolation 

was used in cases where an individual data source did not have a particular intermediate year. 

Straight line extension of the past 5 or 10 years was used in cases where an individual data source 

had 2040 as the furthest out-year. 

Tables 2-1 and 2-2 present a summary of population and employment assumptions by CMSA 

district. Tables 2-3 and 2-4 present the same information summarized at the super district level. 

 
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TABLE 2-1: POPULATION BY CMSA AND YEAR 

CMSA 2015 2025 2015-2025 

Growth 2045 2015-2045 Growth 

Boston 6,501,614 6,696,702 3% 6,952,920 7% 

Hartford 1,858,109 1,906,345 3% 1,977,315 6% 

Providence 1,057,273 1,083,970 3% 1,133,509 7% 

New York 22,366,051 23,052,425 3% 24,786,243 11% 

Philadelphia 6,620,767 6,818,080 3% 7,173,674 8% 

Baltimore 2,813,364 2,942,123 5% 3,111,180 11% 

Washington 5,922,365 6,651,279 12% 7,802,742 32% 

Empire 1,224,503 1,249,730 2% 1,322,372 8% 

Keystone/Other PA 2,858,013 3,085,780 8% 3,537,665 24% 

Richmond 1,353,335 1,473,400 9% 2,047,711 51% 

New London 396,061 407,500 3% 428,661 8% 

Other MA/CT 391,749 394,270 1% 392,699 0% 

Barnstable 243,412 253,492 4% 275,773 13% 

Virginia Beach 1,142,581 1,214,606 6% 1,535,830 34% 

Williamsburg-Hampton 541,233 556,587 3% 630,369 16% 

No. Neck-Tappahannock 72,743 77,439 6% 84,295 16% 

Rural VA 103,235 105,871 3% 106,975 4% 

Charlottesville-Lynchburg 1,273,938 1,374,109 8% 1,550,077 22% 

Rocky Mt-Goldsboro 309,309 324,519 5% 342,914 11% 

Raleigh 4,443,141 5,501,237 24% 8,091,586 82% 

New Bern 508,918 571,376 12% 699,671 37% 

Wilmington NC 835,290 933,842 12% 1,133,185 36% 

Fayetteville 778,889 855,835 10% 995,733 28% 

Durham-Burlington 731,886 843,858 15% 1,082,650 48% 

Winston Salem-Greensboro 1,559,587 1,726,152 11% 2,049,401 31% 

Rockingham-Southern Pines 229,852 252,498 10% 294,245 28% 

Charlotte 3,203,084 3,829,932 20% 5,294,235 65% 

Asheville 1,170,089 1,291,236 10% 1,522,790 30% 

Total 70,510,391 75,474,192 7% 86,356,419 22% 

Table Source: Corridor Metropolitan Planning Organizations and NEC FUTURE Project, 2016. 
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TABLE 2-2: EMPLOYMENT BY CMSA AND YEAR 

CMSA 2015 2025 2015-2025 

Growth 2045 2015-2045 Growth 

Boston 3,346,544 3,570,526 7% 3,799,536 14% 

Hartford 910,304 955,870 5% 999,434 10% 

Providence 476,734 506,425 6% 523,313 10% 

New York 10,335,720 11,154,825 8% 12,093,013 17% 

Philadelphia 3,083,899 3,366,985 9% 3,634,919 18% 

Baltimore 1,508,825 1,643,062 9% 1,837,209 22% 

Washington 3,458,191 3,980,523 15% 5,112,942 48% 

Empire 579,857 632,170 9% 674,875 16% 

Keystone/Other PA 1,319,563 1,462,630 11% 1,671,846 27% 

Richmond 687,255 753,605 10% 989,683 44% 

New London 175,960 187,500 7% 185,152 5% 

Other MA/CT 155,239 159,720 3% 140,721 -9% 

Barnstable 109,921 121,099 10% 136,169 24% 

Virginia Beach 743,969 776,631 4% 937,902 26% 

Williamsburg-Hampton 331,650 346,517 4% 411,891 24% 

No. Neck-Tappahannock 32,602 36,451 12% 41,804 28% 

Rural VA 46,731 49,924 7% 52,476 12% 

Charlottesville-Lynchburg 715,387 809,176 13% 959,033 34% 

Rocky Mt-Goldsboro 154,116 169,802 10% 189,514 23% 

Raleigh 2,757,622 3,403,788 23% 4,852,004 76% 

New Bern 270,656 308,133 14% 376,303 39% 

Wilmington NC 432,497 487,845 13% 588,339 36% 

Fayetteville 381,683 432,626 13% 523,766 37% 

Durham-Burlington 483,771 580,642 20% 785,074 62% 

Winston Salem-Greensboro 864,629 996,141 15% 1,237,814 43% 

Rockingham-Southern Pines 111,395 127,004 14% 153,296 38% 

Charlotte 2,113,146 2,559,290 21% 3,514,030 66% 

Asheville 621,968 707,435 14% 861,806 39% 

Total 36,209,833 40,286,346 11% 47,283,863 31% 

Table Source: Corridor Metropolitan Planning Organizations and NEC FUTURE Project, 2016. 
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TABLE 2-3: POPULATION BY SUPER DISTRICT AND YEAR 

Super District 2015 2025 2015-2025 

Growth 2045 2015-2045 Growth 

New England 11,672,721 11,992,008 3% 12,483,249 7% 

NEC 34,658,196 35,898,408 4% 38,608,761 11% 

Washington 5,922,365 6,651,279 12% 7,802,742 32% 

Richmond 1,353,335 1,473,400 9% 2,047,711 51% 

Tidewater 1,683,814 1,771,193 5% 2,166,199 29% 

Other VA 1,449,916 1,557,419 7% 1,741,347 20% 

NC 13,770,045 16,130,485 17% 21,506,410 56% 

Total 70,510,391 75,474,192 7% 86,356,419 22% 

Table Source: Corridor Metropolitan Planning Organizations and NEC FUTURE Project, 2016. 

TABLE 2-4: EMPLOYMENT BY SUPER DISTRICT AND YEAR 

Super District 2015 2025 2015-2025 

Growth 2045 2015-2045 Growth 

New England 5,754,559 6,133,311 7% 6,459,199 12% 

NEC 16,248,006 17,627,502 8% 19,236,987 18% 

Washington 3,458,191 3,980,523 15% 5,112,942 48% 

Richmond 687,255 753,605 10% 989,683 44% 

Tidewater 1,075,618 1,123,148 4% 1,349,793 25% 

Other VA 794,720 895,551 13% 1,053,314 33% 

NC 8,191,483 9,772,706 19% 13,081,946 60% 

Total 36,209,833 40,286,346 11% 47,283,863 31% 

Table Source: Corridor Metropolitan Planning Organizations and NEC FUTURE Project, 2016. 

2.3 SUPPLY 

An accurate representation of existing and future transportation supply is a critical element to 

the ridership forecasting process. This section describes the transportation system data sources 

and the procedures used to translate this information into estimates of zone-to-zone travel time. 

Modeled estimates of zone-to-zone travel times and other attributes were compared to 

independent information from on-line mapping or reservation web sites to confirm the their 

reasonableness. 
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2.3.1 Highway System 

The highway network is based on the database developed for the NEC FUTURE model. This 

network is derived from the Oak Ridge National Highway Network combined with detailed 

information from local agencies in the New York metropolitan area. Similar databases were used 

to support both the NEC FUTURE project and the North Carolina portion of the SEHSR EIS. 

The database includes interstate, principal arterial, and other highway facilities along the east 

coast of the United States from Maine to North Carolina as shown in Figure 2-6. A detailed view 

of the Virginia to New York portion of the corridor is shown in Figure 2-7. 

Travel times were assigned to each link using procedures developed for the NEC FUTURE model. 

Speeds are computed (outside of the New York City area) based on the facility type, distance, and 

assumed speed limit for each link. In the New York region, travel times obtained from local 

planning agencies are posted directly to the network. These speed and time estimates were used 

with a GIS-based highway path-builder to estimate zone-to-zone travel times (also called 

“skims”). Tolls were also estimated using link-level tolls posted to the network as part of the 

NEC FUTURE project. 

To confirm these times are appropriate for us in the DC2RVA Project, a sample of zone-to-zone 

travel times generated by the GIS procedures, described above, were checked against congested 

times estimated from on-line mapping/direction tools. This comparison is presented in Table 2-

5. In general, the time estimates generated by the path-building procedures are similar to the online mapping results and are within the range of expected variation between modeled and 

observed times. The most notable exception is for times to New York City which, according to 

the on-line tools, are generally much shorter than the estimated skims. This additional time was 

retained in the DC2RVA analysis both to maintain consistency with NEC FUTURE forecasts and 

to represent the difficulty and uncertainty associated with using an automobile in New York City. 

For this analysis, future highway travel times are assumed to be constant between the present 

and the forecast years. Interstate 95, the principal interstate facility serving the DC2RVA corridor 

can be highly congested in some sections and at some times-of-day or times-of-year. At other 

times, this roadway operates at, or above, the speed limit, for most of the journey. I-95 also offers 

High Occupancy Toll lanes which now cover many of the most congested segments of the 

roadway and offer a faster journey for HOV or toll-paying travelers. Extensions to this facility 

are currently being considered. Absent any definitive information from the Virginia Department 

of Transportation3, the DC2RVA model assumes that the existing level-of-service on I-95 will be 

maintained into the future. 

 

 

3 At the time of this analysis, VDOT’s statewide model was in the process of being updated. Until it can be used to 

evaluate potential changes to I-95 (including managed lanes), holding travel times constant was judged to be the most 

prudent option. 
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FIGURE 2-6: OVERVIEW OF COMPLETE HIGHWAY NETWORK 
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FIGURE 2-7: ILLUSTRATIVE HIGHWAY NETWORK DETAIL IN VIRGINIA TO NEW YORK 

PORTION OF CORRIDOR 
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TABLE 2-5: COMPARISON OF HIGHWAY TRAVEL TIME ESTIMATES FROM ON-LINE 

MAPPING AND DC2RVA NETWORK PROCESSING PROCEDURES (YEAR 2016, MINUTES) 

From City and Zone 

To City and Zone 

Richmond Washington, DC New York City 

City Zone Source 459 22 155 

Norfolk 256 On-Line Directions 120 215 425 

Network 110 225 546 

Difference -8% 5% 28% 

Raleigh 161 On-Line Directions 155 280 485 

Network 194 318 502 

Difference 25% 14% 4% 

Richmond 459 On-Line Directions 130 340 

Network 127 448 

Difference -2% 32% 

Fredericksburg 248 On-Line Directions 67.5 82.5 310 

Network 65 72 493 

Difference -4% -13% 59% 

2.3.2 Aviation 

The airline network was developed from the October 2014 T-100 data bank obtained from the 

Bureau of Transportation Statistics. This data source was also used for the NEC FUTURE and NC 

SEHSR EIS projects. This database provides information on the number of departures scheduled 

and operated by each carrier and the average travel time for each airport-to-airport interchange. 

This database was converted into General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) format with one 

record for each airport-to-airport pair. A computerized path-builder (GTF Path) reads these GTFS 

files (and those developed for rail and bus networks) and generates estimates of zone-to-zone 

travel time and service frequency. 

Air travel characteristics for key markets in the corridor are shown in Table 2-6 and are compared 

to results obtained from on-line reservation system results4. As this table shows, the T-100 

database is very similar to the reservation results. Differences in frequency are caused by the use 

of different time periods for the analysis and by fact that the T-100 database represents the 

average frequency of trips actually operated (i.e., not canceled) over an entire month. By contrast, 

the reservation system shows the scheduled trips for a specific day and may include pad to 

account for airport delay in certain locations. Since the T-100 data bank represents the air system 

as actually operated, it was selected as the primary source of data for air service in the DC2RVA 

model with the on-line schedule serving as a check on the accuracy of that data. 

Table 2-7 presents a summary of the zone-to-zone travel times estimated by GTF Path for selected 

zone-to-zone trips. 

 

4 On-line reservations queried in March 2016. 
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TABLE 2-6: COMPARISON OF GTFS AND ON-LINE SCHEDULE 

REPRESENTATION OF AIR SERVICE FOR SELECTED CORRIDOR AIRPORT 

PAIRS 

 GTFS Schedule (October 2014) On-Line Schedule (March 2016) 

Airport Pair Time5

(minutes) 

Frequency6

(trips/day) 

Time 

(minutes) 

Frequency 

(trips/day) 

RIC-DCA 37 <1 0 

RIC-IAD 50 3 53 3 

RIC-BWI 0 0 

RIC-PHL 60 7 59 7 

RIC-EWR 75 4 78 5 

RIC-LGA 79 8 69 9 

RIC-JFK 78 3 85 3 

RIC-BOS 89 6 99 7 

RIC-RDU 0 0 

RIC-CLT 74 8 77 8 

ORF-DCA 54 4 61 4 

ORF-IAD 59 5 70 4 

ORF-BWI 62 3 60 4 

ORF-PHL 69 6 59 7 

ORF-EWR 80 2 87 5 

ORF-LGA 83 5 75 9 

ORF-JFK 84 2 87 1 

ORF-BOS 0 0 

ORF-RDU 0 0 

ORF-CLT 78 8 84 8 

DCA-RDU 69 6 68 7 

DCA-CLT 85 9 88 10 

 

5 Based on T-100 Ramp-to-Ramp Time 

6 Based on T-100 Monthly Trips Actually Performed 
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TABLE 2-7: ZONE-TO-ZONE ESTIMATES OF AIR IN-VEHICLE TIME, ACCESS TIME, 

AND FREQUENCY (YEAR 2014, MINUTES)

From City and Zone 

To City and Zone 

Richmond Washington, 

DC 

New York 

City 

City Zone 459 22 155 

Norfolk 256 In-Vehicle Time 37 54 83 

Access/Egress Time 12/21 12/12 12/29 

Frequency 1 4 6 

Raleigh 161 In-Vehicle Time 122 75 92 

Access/Egress Time 30/21 30/12 30/29 

Frequency 17* 7 16 

Richmond 459 In-Vehicle Time 37 79 

Access/Egress Time 21/12 21/29 

Frequency 1 8 

Charlotte 167 In-Vehicle Time 64 78 107 

Access/Egress Time 25/21 25/12 25/29 

Frequency 8 10 17 

2.3.3 Corridor Bus Services 

Corridor bus services were prepared by hand-coding Greyhound and Megabus schedules in the 

Washington, D.C.-Richmond-Norfolk-Raleigh-Charlotte Corridor in GTFS format. The following 

Greyhound schedules were coded from March 2016: 

 123: Philadelphia-Baltimore-Washington-Richmond 

 124: New York-Richmond-Fayetteville 

 126: New York-Newark-Wilmington-Baltimore-Washington 

 143: Washington-Charlottesville 

 144: Richmond-Roanoke-Nashville 

 400: Jacksonville-Savannah-Fayetteville-Richmond 

 402: Richmond-Raleigh-Wilmington 

 420: New York/Philadelphia-Norfolk-Virginia Beach 

 422: Richmond-Williamsburg-Norfolk 

 423: Raleigh-Elizabeth City-Norfolk 

 424: Richmond-Charlotte-Atlanta 
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Megabus schedules were coded based on on-line schedules available in March 2016 connecting 

Richmond to Durham and Charlotte in the south and Washington, Baltimore (White Marsh) and 

Philadelphia. 

For trips north of Washington, the representation of the bus system from the NEC FUTURE model 

was used. 

GTFPath was used to process the Bus GTFS data and prepare zone-to-zone travel time and 

impedance matrices. A sample of the bus zone-to-zone impedance matrix is presented in Table 

2-8. 

TABLE 2-8: ZONE-TO-ZONE ESTIMATES OF BUS IN-VEHICLE TIME, ACCESS TIME, AND 

FREQUENCY (YEAR 2014, MINUTES)

To City and Zone 

From City and Zone 

Richmond Washington, DC New York City 

City Zone 459 22 155 

Norfolk 256 In-Vehicle Time 90 275 565 

Access/Egress Time 23/8 23/4 17/10 

Frequency 5 2 3 

Raleigh 161 In-Vehicle Time 190 290 

Access/Egress Time 8/8 43/4 

Frequency 4 3 

Richmond 459 In-Vehicle Time 125 405 

Access/Egress Time 8/4 8/10 

Frequency 13 10 

Charlotte 167 In-Vehicle Time 375 

Access/Egress Time 10/3 

Frequency 2 

2.3.4 High-Speed Rail 

The Acela timetable in GTFS format for September 2014 is the basis of all High Speed Rail services 

for existing and future conditions. Although this service is not operated in the Washington, D.C.-

to-Richmond corridor in current year (or anticipated future scenarios), this service attracts many 

customers from Northern Virginia travelling to Philadelphia, New York, and other destinations 

in the Northeast Corridor. It is coded into the model to properly represent the choice that these 

trip-makers have to travel into Washington and take this service northward as opposed to using 

regional trains serving a closer Virginia station. 

This GTFS schedule is processed using GTFPath to create zone-to-zone matrices of time and other 

impedances. Sample values are presented in Table 2-9. 
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D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-19 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

TABLE 2-9: ZONE-TO-ZONE ESTIMATES OF HIGH SPEED RAIL IN-VEHICLE TIME, ACCESS 

TIME, AND FREQUENCY (YEAR 2014, MINUTES)

To City and Zone 

City and Zone 

Washington, DC Philadelphia New York City 

City Zone 22 57 155 

Alexandria 173 In-Vehicle Time 88 165 

Access/Egress Time 18/20 18/11 

Frequency 16 16 

Fredericksburg 248 In-Vehicle Time 88 165 

Access/Egress Time 72/20 72/11 

Frequency 16 16 

2.3.5 Regional Rail 

Regional rail schedules for the existing case and all future scenarios are developed by the 

DC2RVA service planning team. The scope of these schedules includes all regional trains 

operating in the Washington, D.C.-to-Richmond corridor, all intra-North Carolina trains, and all 

regional trains operating on the NEC between Washington and points north. The appendix 

presents the regional train schedule used for model calibration. 

Similar to the other modes, GTF Path was used to generate estimates of zone-to-zone travel time 

and other impedances. To represent cases where travelers have a viable choice of station, two 

different paths were created. The first path is designed to represent the best overall choice for 

travelers who are willing to travel farther to a station to reach more frequent or faster train service. 

This path weights access and egress time at 2.5 times the value of in-vehicle (on train) travel time. 

The second path is intended to generate an alternative to the first path that connects to the nearest 

station; even if that station has very modest levels of service. The second path weights access and 

egress time at 15 times the value of in-vehicle time. The path-weight values were selected based 

on a series of path tests as follows: 

 The value of 2.5 times in-vehicle time was the minimum value that caused paths to build 

reasonably. When this value was set to the weight generated by a statistical estimation 

of survey results (1.7), a path from Fredericksburg to Williamsburg would have an origin 

station of Richmond-Staples Mill. When 3 additional trains are added to Norfolk, the 

destination station becomes Norfolk. Neither outcome is a reasonable representation of 

how train passengers in this market would select boarding and alighting stations. When 

the weight is increased to 2.5, these paths board in Fredericksburg and alight in 

Williamsburg—the most logical station pair for this trip. 

 The value of 15 times in-vehicle time is the amount that is necessary to reliably choose the 

closest station among all the existing and Build Alternatives. The most demanding 

situation concerned trips beginning in the City of Petersburg for alternatives where all 

trains stop at Richmond Main Street. Unless the weight was set to 15, some Petersburg 

origins would choose Richmond Main Street for some alternatives. 

Table 2-10 presents computed estimates of travel time for selected key zone-to-zone 

combinations. This table shows both sets of regional rail paths. For places where multiple 
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D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-20 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

potential boarding stations exist (e.g., Richmond and Norfolk), the fastest path and the closeststation path are different. In other places where only one station exists (e.g., Raleigh and 

Charlotte), the fastest path and the closest-station path are identical. Even in cases where the 

fastest-path and closest-station path are the same, both paths are retained for processing in later 

model steps. 

TABLE 2-10: ZONE-TO-ZONE ESTIMATES OF REGIONAL RAIL IN-VEHICLE TIME, ACCESS 

TIME, AND FREQUENCY (YEAR 2014, MINUTES) 

From City and Zone 

To City and Zone- Path 1 To City and Zone – Path 2 

Richmond Wash., 

DC 

New 

York 

City 

Richmond Wash., 

DC 

New 

York City 

City Zone 459 22 155 459 22 155 

Norfolk 256 Stations NPNRVM NPNWAS NFKNYP NFK-RVR NFKWAS NFK-NYP 

In-Vehicle Time 70 240 487 123 284 524 

Access/Egress Time 35/3 35/4 35/11 17/15 17/4 17/11 

Frequency 2 2 2 1 1 1 

Raleigh 161 Stations RGHRVR RGHWAS RGHNYP RGH-RVR RGHWAS RGH-NYP 

In-Vehicle Time 202 353 605 202 353 605 

Access/Egress Time 7/15 7/4 7/11 7/15 7/4 7/11 

Frequency 2 2 2 2 2 2 

Richmond 459 Stations RVRWAS RVRNYP  RVMWAS RVM-NYP 

In-Vehicle Time 135 365 170 413 

Access/Egress Time 15/4 15/11 3/4 3/11 

Frequency 9 9 2 2 

Charlotte 167 Stations CLTRVR CLT-WAS CLTNYP CLT-RVR CLTWAS CLT-NYP 

In-Vehicle Time 425 487 720 425 487 720 

Access/Egress Time 13/15 13/4 13/11 13/15 13/4 13/11 

Frequency 1 2 2 1 2 2 

 
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D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-21 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

2.3 TRANSPORTATION LEVEL-OF-SERVICE MEASURES 

After the completion of path-building, level-of-service statistics are computed for each origin 

zone-to-destination zone pair. Key statistics that are collected for each mode include: 

 Access and egress time: Computed by the path builder using zone-to-station or zone-toairport paths built using travel times from the highway network. 

 In-vehicle time. For common carrier modes, this time is based on the scheduled time for 

the train(s), plane(s), or bus(es) used on the shortest paths for each zone-to-zone pair. For 

the auto mode, in-vehicle time is based on the zone-to-zone paths built with the highway 

network. 

 Frequency. For common carrier modes, frequency is computed as the number of daily 

trains/buses/planes serving the station-to-station pair used for the trip. 

 Adjusted frequency. Adjusted frequency is based on the formula used in the NEC 

FUTURE and SEHSR study: 

௬ሻ൯௘௡௖௨௥௘௤ி݁×−0.08ሺ − 1൫݈݊ = ݕ݁݊ܿݑݍ݁ݎܨ	݁݀ݐݏݑ݆݀ܣ

 Fare. Fare is computed separately for each common carrier mode and personal auto 

(including the access/egress component of common carrier trips): 

o Automobile. Business and commute trips are costed according to the fully allocated 

cost of operating an automobile at the time of the NEC FUTURE calibration. That 

value is $0.55 per mile. Non-Business Trips are costed at the incremental automobile 

rate of $0.15 per mile. 

o Rail fares are computed based on the mileage between rail stations according to the 

parameters developed for the NEC FUTURE project and shown in Table 2-11. 

• Table 2-11: Mileage-Based Parameters for Estimating Rail Fares 

• HSR 

Mileage 

Range 

• HSR 

Cost/Mile 

• Regional 

Rail Mileage 

Range 

• Regional 

Rail 

Cost/Mile 

• <75 • $0.92 • <75 • $0.447 

• 75-250 • $0.63 • 75-200 • $0.405 

• 250-350 • $0.14 • 200-300 • $0.216 

• 350+ • $0.14 • 300+ • $0.216 

o Air fares are computed for each origin and destination airport based on average 

fare-paid information contained in the Airline Origin and Destination Survey 
RIDERSHIP FORECASTING METHODOLOGY 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-22 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

(DB1B) for 2012. For the DC2RVA study, NEC FUTURE fare table was extended 

to include key airports in the SEHSR corridor including Richmond (RIC), Norfolk 

(ORF), Raleigh-Durham (RDU), and Charlotte (CLT) using the 2012 average fares. 

These fares were checked against current (March 2016) fares by using on-line 

booking software to test fares to different locations for a trip one month in the 

future. This comparison is shown in Table 2-12. For Richmond, and to a lesser 

extent Norfolk, the 2012 fares are similar to current fares for a trip to be made in 

March 2016. The DB1B fares for the North Carolina airports are higher than the 

on-line booking fares. Given the variation that is possible with fares from day to 

day, the DB1B fares (which represent an average over an entire year) were retained 

for this analysis. 

TABLE 2-12: COMPARISON OF DB1B FARES USED IN DC2RVA MODEL TO MARCH 2016 

FARE QUOTES 

From 

Airport 

 To Airport 

DCA BWI PHL EWR LGA 

RIC DB1B -- $292 $254 $313 $304 

Online range $212 $218 $229 - $310 $270 - $335 $267 - $330 

ORF DB1B $184 $149 $194 $244 $221 

Online range $101 $112 $309 - $315 $285 - $420 $246 - $330 

RDU DB1B $232 $142 $194 $236 $160 

Online range $100 $100 $88 $117 - $128 $109 

CLT DB1B $243 $134 $256 $230 $154 

Online range $272 - $324 $105 $96 $78 $78 

o Bus Fares were based on procedures developed for the NEC FUTURE project and 

extended to apply to DC2RVA Corridor. This fare relationship was tested by using 

on-line booking tools to compare modeled and actual fares. This comparison is 

presented in Table 2-13 and shows that the formula-based fares generally match 

the range of actual fares. As is the case for air fares, some city pairs have fares that 

are much lower than would be predicted by the distance. These discounted fares 

can be volatile and as a result the formula-based fares are used for this analysis. 

TABLE 2-13: COMPARISON OF FORMULA-BASED BUS FARES USED IN DC2RVA MODEL TO 

MARCH 2016 FARE QUOTES 

From City To City 

Richmond Washington Philadelphia New York 

Richmond DC2RVA Estimate $20 $32 $40 

Online range $17 - $21 $18 - $21 $36-$40 

Norfolk DC2RVA Estimate $19 $25 $33 $41 

Online range $13 - $20 $17 - $30 $11 - $17 $30 - $35 

Raleigh DC2RVA Estimate $24 

Online range $12 
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D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-23 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

2.4 ALL-MODE LONG DISTANCE TRAVEL DEMAND 

The overall demand for long distance travel is based on the Federal Highway Administration 

National Long Distance Passenger Origin Destination Trip Table for 2008. This table is provided 

at the county (or county-equivalent) level-of-detail for travel demand occurring throughout the 

United States. As noted in its documentation, this table is designed to serve as a starting point 

for analysis of travel demand patterns and requires adaptation for any particular project. 

The person trip table is stratified by the following modes and purposes: 

• Bus 

• Rail 

• Air 

• Auto (Business) 

• Auto (Non-Business) 

A summary of the Year 2008 Long Distance Trip Table is presented in Table 2-14. 

These trip tables were scaled according to the projected growth in population and employment 

at each end of the trip using the procedures developed for the NEC FUTURE model. These 

procedures are: 

௘௥ி௨௧௨,௜௢௡௧௜௡௔௦௧஽௘݊݋݅ݐ݈ܽݑ݌݋ܲ×௘௥ி௨௧௨,௥௜௚௜௡ை݊݋݅ݐ݈ܽݑ݌݋ܲቆඥ	× ݏ݌݅ݎܶݎܻ݁݁ܽݏܽܤ = ݏ݌݅ݎ݁ܶݎݑݐݑܨ

ඥܲݑ݌݋݈ܽݐ݅݋݊ை௥௜௚௜௡,ா௫௜௦௧×ܲݑ݌݋݈ܽݐ݅݋݊௘஽௦௧௜௡௔௧௜௢௡,ா௫௜௦௧

ቇ

௫

௘௥ி௨௧௨,௜௢௡௧௜௡௔௦௧஽௘ݐ݉݁݊ݕ݋݈݌݉ܧ×௘௥ி௨௧௨,௥௜௚௜௡ைݐ݉݁݊ݕ݋݈݌݉ܧቆඥ× 

௦௧௜ா௫,௜௢௡௧௜௡௔௦௧஽௘ݐ݉݁݊ݕ݋݈݌݉ܧ×௦௧௜ா௫,௥௜௚௜௡ைݐ݉݁݊ݕ݋݈݌݉ܧඥ

ቇ

௫

The exponent, x, was calibrated by the NEC FUTURE team to the following values: 

• Business travel: x = 0.7017 

• Non-business travel: x=0.6919 

• Commute travel: x=0.6144 

This equation results in slightly higher growth in trips than either population or employment 

growth, alone, would suggest. For example, population growth of 16 percent and employment 

growth of 24 percent would yield a trip growth of 29%. This additional growth may reflect the 

fact that travel opportunities grow most strongly when both population and employment grow 

together. 

Tables 2-15 to 2-20 present the resulting estimates of 2015, 2025, and 2045 trips tables in both 

absolute terms and as a percent of growth from 2008-to-2015 or 2015-to-2025 or 2045. 
RIDERSHIP FORECASTING METHODOLOGY 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-24 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

TABLE 2-14: YEAR 2008 ANNUAL LONG-DISTANCE PERSON TRIPS 

From 

Super 

District 

To Super District 

New 

England 

NEC Washington Richmond Tidewater Other VA NC Total 

New 

England 20,376,713 27,617,282 1,918,213 343,325 369,068 448,327 1,214,375 52,287,303 

NEC 30,025,124 63,111,002 14,506,858 2,687,990 2,470,020 3,452,296 4,615,277 120,868,568 

Washington 1,979,981 14,307,486 265,218 2,961,105 2,194,458 2,833,422 2,495,976 27,037,647 

Richmond 338,536 2,599,278 2,923,588 3,115 614,126 646,081 2,126,987 9,251,711 

Tidewater 374,000 2,224,126 2,090,116 634,478 511 1,029,278 2,210,569 8,563,078 

Other VA 448,634 3,398,591 2,840,918 660,489 1,032,194 886,812 4,586,623 13,854,260 

NC 1,231,850 4,548,829 2,499,264 2,160,912 2,295,326 4,488,113 20,125,734 37,350,029 

Total 54,774,837 117,806,594 27,044,176 9,451,415 8,975,703 13,784,330 37,375,541 269,212,596 

TABLE 2-15: YEAR 2015 ANNUAL LONG-DISTANCE PERSON TRIPS 

From 

Super 

District 

To Super District 

New 

England 

NEC Washington Richmond Tidewater Other VA NC Total 

New 

England 22,035,790 29,942,369 2,130,231 376,357 412,471 499,934 1,372,474 56,769,627 

NEC 32,571,361 69,184,593 16,266,225 2,973,512 2,784,017 3,888,530 5,222,207 132,890,445 

Washington 2,198,775 16,024,929 308,190 3,309,088 2,495,584 3,239,924 2,875,055 30,451,545 

Richmond 371,315 2,876,295 3,270,446 3,475 720,575 738,291 2,422,637 10,403,034 

Tidewater 418,481 2,515,300 2,381,507 745,334 517 1,172,698 2,585,773 9,819,610 

Other VA 500,587 3,829,825 3,250,948 754,378 1,175,718 979,031 5,360,836 15,851,324 

NC 1,392,713 5,146,015 2,879,847 2,458,309 2,680,468 5,238,949 23,404,162 43,200,463 

Total 59,489,021 129,519,325 30,487,395 10,620,452 10,269,350 15,757,357 43,243,145 299,386,046 

TABLE 2-16: GROWTH IN ANNUAL LONG-DISTANCE PERSON TRIPS BETWEEN 2008 AND 

2015 

From 

Super 

District 

To Super District 

New 

England 

NEC Washington Richmond Tidewater Other VA NC Total 

New 

England 8% 8% 11% 10% 12% 12% 13% 9% 

NEC 8% 10% 12% 11% 13% 13% 13% 10% 

Washington 11% 12% 16% 12% 14% 14% 15% 13% 

Richmond 10% 11% 12% 12% 17% 14% 14% 12% 

Tidewater 12% 13% 14% 17% 1% 14% 17% 15% 

Other VA 12% 13% 14% 14% 14% 10% 17% 14% 

NC 13% 13% 15% 14% 17% 17% 16% 16% 

Total 9% 10% 13% 12% 14% 14% 16% 11% 
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D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-25 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

TABLE 2-17: YEAR 2025 ANNUAL LONG-DISTANCE PERSON TRIPS 

From 

Super 

District 

To Super District 

New 

England 

NEC Washington Richmond Tidewater Other VA NC Total 

New 

England 23,506,769 32,046,924 2,415,452 415,696 440,130 551,458 1,564,716 60,941,143 

NEC 34,889,846 75,120,291 18,699,141 3,329,588 3,029,233 4,348,012 5,974,759 145,390,870 

Washington 2,494,281 18,418,170 366,944 3,882,358 2,873,587 3,798,265 3,469,028 35,302,633 

Richmond 410,411 3,221,987 3,839,688 3,977 810,521 846,635 2,844,661 11,977,881 

Tidewater 446,646 2,731,225 2,740,480 837,415 538 1,301,619 2,940,400 10,998,323 

Other VA 552,406 4,282,181 3,812,512 864,738 1,305,049 1,111,367 6,298,185 18,226,438 

NC 1,588,405 5,885,952 3,473,562 2,882,414 3,056,768 6,148,922 28,031,320 51,067,343 

Total 63,888,765 141,706,730 35,347,778 12,216,185 11,515,827 18,106,278 51,123,068 333,904,632 

TABLE 2-18: GROWTH IN ANNUAL LONG-DISTANCE PERSON TRIPS BETWEEN 2015 AND 

2025 

From 

Super 

District 

To Super District 

New 

England 

NEC Washington Richmond Tidewater Other VA NC Total 

New 

England 

7% 7% 13% 10% 7% 10% 14% 7% 

NEC 7% 9% 15% 12% 9% 12% 14% 9% 

Washington 13% 15% 19% 17% 15% 17% 21% 16% 

Richmond 11% 12% 17% 14% 12% 15% 17% 15% 

Tidewater 7% 9% 15% 12% 4% 11% 14% 12% 

Other VA 10% 12% 17% 15% 11% 14% 17% 15% 

NC 14% 14% 21% 17% 14% 17% 20% 18% 

Total 7% 9% 16% 15% 12% 15% 18% 12% 

 
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D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-26 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

TABLE 2-19: YEAR 2045 ANNUAL LONG-DISTANCE PERSON TRIPS 

From 

Super 

District 

To Super District 

New 

England 

NEC Washington Richmond Tidewater Other VA NC Total 

New 

England 25,084,555 34,552,954 2,840,864 509,933 513,649 621,810 1,900,591 66,024,356 

NEC 37,716,654 83,434,638 22,500,891 4,167,928 3,667,547 5,039,740 7,329,051 163,856,449 

Washington 2,934,670 22,152,354 478,515 5,214,819 3,798,422 4,710,032 4,597,039 43,885,852 

Richmond 504,591 4,037,572 5,169,044 5,227 1,136,013 1,119,804 3,916,255 15,888,507 

Tidewater 521,713 3,299,350 3,621,276 1,171,742 658 1,628,754 3,911,373 14,154,866 

Other VA 623,391 4,962,410 4,728,680 1,143,349 1,633,231 1,311,518 8,040,060 22,442,639 

NC 1,930,801 7,213,429 4,598,730 3,957,581 4,085,607 7,832,712 37,442,940 67,061,799 

Total 69,316,375 159,652,707 43,938,000 16,170,579 14,835,128 22,264,371 67,137,309 393,314,468 

TABLE 2-20: GROWTH IN ANNUAL LONG-DISTANCE PERSON TRIPS BETWEEN 2015 AND 

2045 

From 

Super 

District 

To Super District 

New 

England 

NEC Washington Richmond Tidewater Other VA NC Total 

New 

England 

14% 15% 33% 35% 25% 24% 38% 16% 

NEC 16% 21% 38% 40% 32% 30% 40% 23% 

Washington 33% 38% 55% 58% 52% 45% 60% 44% 

Richmond 36% 40% 58% 50% 58% 52% 62% 53% 

Tidewater 25% 31% 52% 57% 27% 39% 51% 44% 

Other VA 25% 30% 45% 52% 39% 34% 50% 42% 

NC 39% 40% 60% 61% 52% 50% 60% 55% 

Total 17% 23% 44% 52% 44% 41% 55% 31% 

2.5 MODE CHOICE MODEL 

The mode choice model follows the basic structure of the NEC FUTURE model with several 

adjustments for application to the DC2RVA corridor. This model is structured as a nested logit 

choice model with the choice hierarchy shown in Figure 2-8. Key differences between the 

DC2RVA model and the NEC FUTURE model are as follows: 

 The model is applied as a McFadden-type nested choice mode thus keeping generic variables 

consistent at the top choice level 

 The model subdivides regional rail into two sub-choices that parallel the two potential paths 

described in the section on transportation supply. These choices represent the option to value 

access at a relatively low value (2.5 times in-vehicle time) or at a much higher level (15 times 

in-vehicle time). This choice was added to match the observed usage of Richmond Main 

Street and Staples Mill stations. 
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 The purpose-specific nesting structure of the NEC FUTURE model was replaced with a single 

nest structure that is used for all three trip purposes--business, non-business, and commute. 

To maintain consistency with the NEC FUTURE model while simplifying the program code, 

the missing nest choices in the NEC FUTURE model were represented with nest coefficients 

(Ө1, Ө2, Ө3, and Ө4) that were set to 1.0 which is mathematically equivalent to the NEC FUTURE 

structure. 

 Coefficients were derived from a combination of four sources: 

o Stated-preference survey of current DC2RVA rail customers 

o Stated-preference survey of corridor residents who travel in the corridor 

o NEC FUTURE Model and its estimation of stated and revealed preferences 

o Initial model sensitivity to in-vehicle time, frequency and on-time performance 

compared to Amtrak experience of historic ridership response to service changes 

The resulting model coefficients are presented in Table 2-21. In addition to the coefficients 

presented in this table, air trips under 150 miles are penalized to reduce the modeled estimate of 

very short air trips. 

FIGURE 2-8: MODE CHOICE NESTING STRUCTURE FOR THE DC2RVA MODE 

Total Person 

Trips

Automobile Common 

Carriers

Air Bus Rail

HSR Non-HSR

Commuter 

Rail Regional Rail

Regional Rail 

(regular 

access)

Regional Rail 

(short 

access)

Ө1

Ө2

Ө3

Ө4
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D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-28 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

TABLE 2-21: MODE CHOICE MODEL PARAMETERS 

Parameter Applicable 

modes 

Business NonBusiness Commuter Source 

In-vehicle time 

(minutes) 

All -0.011 -0.0055 -0.0055 NEC FUTURE7

Access/egress time 

(minutes) 

Common carrier 

modes 

-0.02750 -0.01375 -0.01375 Midpoint of DC2RVA survey 

results for Business and NonBusiness trips.8

Internal station time Common carrier 

modes 

-0.1902 -0.01823 -0.1823 DC2RVA survey9

Adjusted Frequency Common carriers 0.8760 0.3240 0.3240 Between DC2RVA survey and 

NEC FUTURE to match 

observed Amtrak experience 

Full Cost (premium 

modes, dollars) 

Air, and HSR -0.00203 -0.001896 DC2RVA survey 

Full Cost (nonpremium modes, 

dollars) 

Auto, Bus, nonHSR rail -0.00695 -0.001896 DC2RVA survey 

Incremental Cost 

(dollars) 

<$50.00 

$50.00-$99 

$99.00-$149 

>$149 

Air and HSR 

-0.01896 

-0.00649 

-0.00391 

-0.00281 

 DC2RVA survey 

On time 

percentage10

Non-HSR rail 

to/from/within 

DC2RVA corridor 

0.57 0.325 Half of DC2RVA survey result to 

match observed Amtrak 

experience 

 

7 In NEC FUTURE model, commute mode has an IVTT coefficient of -0.0057. Since this market was grouped with nonbusiness in the DC2RVA survey and since the IVTT coefficients for non-business and commuter are nearly equal, 

these two markets were assigned the same parameters. 

8 The OVTT/IVTT ratio estimated in the DC2RVA survey was 1.7 for business trips and 3.3 for non-business trips. In 

the NEC FUTURE model, this ratio is 0.79 for business, 1.0 for non-business, 1.5 for commute, 1.5 for business path 

choice and 2.0 for non-business path choice. Given the apparent volatility of this weight, the path finding software was 

tested and it was found that 2.5 was the lowest weight that would generate reasonable paths. Mode choice weights 

were set to this value so that each element of the model performed consistently. 

9 Since this parameter has no effect on path-building, purpose-specific estimates of the OVTT-to-IVTT ratio were used 

(1.7 and 3.3 for business and non-business, respectively). This value is assigned to the assumed amount of time spent 

at passenger terminals—75 minutes for airports and 20 minutes for bus and rail stations. This time accounts for time 

spent for security, circulation time, and cushion time to allow the traveler to make the plane, train or bus in the event of 

unforeseen delays. 

10 OTP is currently 66% in corridor and expected to improve to 90% with the Project. The OTP improvement as a 

percent (24) is multiplied by $0.57 or $0.325 / OTP percent (Business and Non-Business, respectively) to estimate the 

equivalent value of the OTP improvement. This means that OTP improvement is equivalent to a discount of $13.68 or 

$7.80 off the regular ticket price. For any individual trip this “discount” is limited to half of the regular fare. 
RIDERSHIP FORECASTING METHODOLOGY 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-29 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

TABLE 2-21: MODE CHOICE MODEL PARAMETERS 

Parameter Applicable 

modes 

Business NonBusiness Commuter Source 

Short Path Short Access 

Regional Rail 

+0.275 +0.275 +0.275 Preference for being on the 

shorter of the two regional rail 

paths. Calibrated to match 

distribution of ridership at 

Richmond Staples Mill and Main 

Street Stations. Equivalent to 10 

minutes of in-vehicle time for 

business travelers 

Nest coefficients 

Ө1

Ө2

Ө3

Ө4

 

1.00000 

0.65110 

0.96540 

1.00000 

1.00000 

0.74170 

1.00000 

1.00000 

0.80300 

1.00000 

1.00000 

1.00000 

NEC FUTURE11

2.6 MODEL CALIBRATION 

The DC2RVA model was calibrated to match observed district-to-district trip flows by mode (air, 

bus, HSR, and regional rail), purpose (business, non-business, and commuter) at the CMSA 

district-to-district level. This was done with a series of utility adjustment constants at the districtto-district level. The source of the observed trip targets are as follows: 

• Rail: 

o Trips beginning or ending in Virginia or North Carolina: Amtrak station-to-station 

counts assigned to CMSA districts according to station location and allocated to 

business or non-business purposes according to the corridor-wide regional rail 

shares in the NEC FUTURE count database. 

o Trips beginning and ending in the Northeast Corridor: NEC FUTURE count 

database 

• Other modes: FHWA Long Distance Trip Tables 

Since the FHWA person trip tables were not fully validated, the rail counts were treated as the 

primary calibration target and the FHWA trips served as a secondary target. 

Following CMSA district-to-district calibration, estimated station boardings at individual stations 

were compared to counts. Early testing revealed that ridership at stations in or near the central 

cities of a region (i.e., Norfolk or Richmond) were underestimated while stations outside the 

central cities (Woodbridge, Quantico, Fredericksburg, Ashland, Williamsburg, and Petersburg) 

were typically overestimated. Some cities close to the core (Alexandria and Newport News) are 

slightly overestimated. To correct this problem, a series of station time adjustments were 

developed and applied to both path building and mode split. The values of these time 

 

11 Regular vs. short access for regional rail not part of NEC FUTURE model. Nest coefficient was set to 1.0. Since 

both paths always exist (as long as one path exists), this structure does not generate additional trips when a second 

path is found. 
RIDERSHIP FORECASTING METHODOLOGY 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-30 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

adjustments were set to match existing observed ridership and are shown in Table 2-22. The 

lack of a definitive pattern among these adjustments suggests that they should not be applied to 

new market areas without careful consideration of which adjustment may be most appropriate. 

TABLE 2-22: STATION TIME ADJUSTMENTS (MINUTES) 

Station Time Adjustment Notes 

Washington, D.C. 0 

Alexandria 7 Reflects greater accessibility of Washington Union Station via 

Metro 

Woodbridge 17 Non-core station in Washington CMSA 

Quantico 23 Non-core station in Washington CMSA 

Fredericksburg 32.5 Non-core station in Washington CMSA 

Ashland 11 Non-core station in Richmond CMSA 

Richmond (all stations) 0 

Petersburg 21 Non-core station in Richmond CMSA 

Williamsburg 20 Non-core station in Virginia Beach CMSA 

Newport News 2 Reflects greater accessibility of Norfolk

Norfolk 0 

As shown in Table 2-23, the resulting DC2RVA model does a reasonably good job representing 

total rail boardings in each origin-destination CMSA District-pair. This means that, at the district 

level of aggregation, the model properly represents the patterns of rail travel between different 

origins and destinations. 

As shown in Table 2-24, the model also replicates the observed boardings at individual stations 

in the corridor to a reasonable level of fidelity. This feature will be important for testing the 

impacts of different station locations and service plans that change the relatively frequency of 

service to different stations. 
RIDERSHIP FORECASTING METHODOLOGY 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-31 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

TABLE 2-23: COMPARISON OF COUNTED AND MODELED ANNUAL RAIL TRIPS BY ORIGIN 

AND DESTINATION CMSA 

 Destination>>> 

Origin 

Washington Richmond Virginia 

Beach 

Newport 

News 

Other Total 

North of DC Count 89,563 9,347 43,731 142,640 

Model 89,446 9,390 42,638 141,473 

WashingtonFredericksburg Count 165,705 84,600 13,362 43,293 306,959 

Model 150,992 84,823 13,497 43,307 292,618 

Richmond Count 84,600 1,576 1,764 8,710 99,371 196,020 

Model 84,796 1,605 1,764 8,707 100,436 197,309 

Newport News Count 43,293 8,710 - 633 42,985 95,620 

Model 43,290 8,707 0 459 44,450 96,905 

Norfolk-Va Beach Count 13,362 1,764 - - 9,298 24,424 

Model 13,362 1,764 0 0 11,385 26,511 

Other Virginia Count - - - - - - 

Model 388 34 112 139 1,438 2,110 

North Carolina Count 107,231 9,707 - - 417,674 534,612 

Model 107,933 10,931 1,749 1,655 424,208 546,475 

Total Count 414,190 195,920 24,473 96,366 569,328 1,300,275 

Model 400,761 197,309 26,511 96,905 581,917 1,303,402 

TABLE 2-25: COMPARISON OF COUNTED AND MODELED ANNUAL (2015) RAIL RIDERSHIP 

(BOARDINGS+ALIGHTINGS) BY CORRIDOR STATION 

Station Total Count Counted Ridership 

Within Modeling 

Area 

Model Estimate of 

Ridership 

Petersburg 29,892 25,666 27,265 

Norfolk 44,852 44,852 40,028 

Newport News 115,440 115,440 123,798 

Williamsburg 61,625 61,426 51,017 

Richmond Main Street 45,062 45,062 46,849 

Richmond Staples Mill 361,996 334,782 351,156 

Ashland 28,141 28,142 28,013 

Fredericksburg 117,423 117,424 127,535 

Quantico 32,754 32,754 34,754 

Woodbridge 24,212 24,212 23,836 

Alexandria 186,841 171,170 174,238 

Total 1,048,238 1,000,930 1,028,488 
RIDERSHIP FORECASTING METHODOLOGY 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-32 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

2.7 SENSITIVITY TESTING 

The DC2RVA model was tested to confirm that it responded properly to increases in corridor 

demographics (related to future years) and changes to rail levels-of-service. These tests are 

described in the following sections. 

2.7.1 Sensitivity to Future Demographics 

The DC2RVA model was run with existing, Year 2025 and Year 2045 demographics. The results 

of this test are presented in Table 2-26 and are directly comparable to the increases in person 

travel described above. These travel increases are proportional (but slightly higher than) changes 

in the assumed population and employment for the corridor. 

TABLE 2-26: FORECASTED CORRIDOR STATION RIDERSHIP 

(BOARDINGS+ALIGHTINGS) BY YEAR WITH EXISTING SERVICE PLAN 

Station 2015 2025 2045 

Model Model %Growth Model %Growth 

Petersburg, VA 27,265 30,889 13% 36,573 34% 

Norfolk, VA 40,028 44,643 12% 57,611 44% 

Newport News, VA 123,798 136,527 10% 166,199 34% 

Williamsburg, VA 51,017 57,907 14% 75,831 49% 

Richmond Main 46,849 53,228 14% 69,680 49% 

Richmond Staples Mill 351,156 401,639 14% 530,373 51% 

Ashland, VA 28,013 32,782 17% 44,826 60% 

Fredericksburg, VA 127,535 149,214 17% 194,726 53% 

Quantico, VA 34,754 41,135 18% 53,985 55% 

Woodbridge, VA 23,836 28,179 18% 35,273 48% 

Alexandria, VA 174,238 204,464 17% 264,244 52% 

Total 1,028,488 1,180,607 15% 1,529,321 49% 

2.7.2 Sensitivity to Service Changes 

Three tests of the DC2RVA model were conducted to confirm that the model is appropriately 

sensitive to changes in rail levels of service. Please note that these changes are designed solely 

for the purpose of testing model responsiveness to different types of service changes and are not 

forecast results. In particular, these sensitivity test scenarios are not representative of the actual 

Build Alternatives.

These sensitivity test scenarios are defined as follows: 

1. Relocate the Richmond Staples Mill Station to a location near to the former Broad Street 

Station. Add six minutes to the southbound station time and subtract six minutes from 

the northbound station time to account for the fact that this station is further from 

Washington and closer to points South and East. 

2. Reduce Washington, D.C.-to-Richmond travel times by 10 minutes. Times between 

Washington and intermediate points will be reduced by 5 minutes to Fredericksburg and 
RIDERSHIP FORECASTING METHODOLOGY 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-33 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

7 minutes to Ashland. The time savings to Richmond will be reflected in all trips traveling 

between Washington (and points north) and Richmond (and points south) to reflect the 

fact that improvements to the Washington, D.C.-Richmond leg will benefit passengers in 

a broader market than just the DC2RVA corridor. For instance, a traveler beginning in 

New York and ending in North Carolina will also benefit from the 10 minute savings in 

time. 

3. Frequency improvement. The test was constructed by adding 3 new WashingtonRichmond-Norfolk trains with the same station stops and running times as the existing 

train. 

4. On-time performance improvement. This test examines the effect of improving on-time 

percentage from 66 to 90 percent in the DC2RVA corridor. 

Each model was applied for the 2015 forecast year. Results are presented in Table 2-27. Each of 

the tests appears to represent a realistic ridership response to service changes as described below. 

• Relocate Richmond Staples Mill to vicinity of former Broad Street Station. This scenario tests 

the response of the model to relocating the main Richmond station to an area in the vicinity 

of the old Broad Street Station. When this change is made, total ridership in the modeling area 

increases by 32,000 annual trips. Total boardings at all Richmond stations increases from 

199,000 annual passengers to 213,000, an increase of 14,000 or 7 percent. The number of 

boardings using Main Street Station drops from 23,000 to 9,000 annual customers indicating 

about 60 percent of all customers using Main Street Station today would find a station in the 

Broad Street area that was served by all trains passing through Richmond a better choice than 

Main Street Station serving just 2 trains per day. The fact that the total ridership grows 

suggests that the Broad Street Station is slightly better location for the main Richmond Station 

than the Staples Mill site if the travel time assumptions described above could be 

accomplished12. The station at Ashland is also affected by this change. As the Richmond 

Staples Mill station moves south, travelers from the northernmost suburbs of Richmond 

might prefer to use Ashland station, leading to an increase of about 1,000 annual riders. 

• Improve Washington to Richmond travel speeds by 10 minutes. Improving travel times in the 

Washington, D.C.-to-Richmond corridor results in an increase of 56,000 annual riders. 

Looking at one specific market (Washington, D.C. to Richmond) this alternative increases 

ridership by 7.2 percent with a reduction in travel time of 7.7 percent—an elasticity of 0.94. 

This response is similar to Amtrak’s experience with travel time improvements. 

• Add three Washington-to-Norfolk trains. The addition of three Washington-to-Norfolk trains 

(in each direction) improves frequencies in the entire corridor but most notably at Norfolk 

where the current schedule offers only one daily arrival and departure. This change results 

in an increase of 71,000 annual corridor riders and an increase of 35,000 annual boardings at 

Norfolk. Since a similar number of riders also alight at Norfolk, the total passenger increase 

 

12 Note: This service sensitivity test scenario (and all scenarios described in this section) are designed to evaluate the 

sensitivity of the model. This scenario is not an actual Build Alternative and the times used here are not the result of 

any detailed rail operations analysis. Actual alternatives are defined in Chapter 3 and results are presented in Chapters 

4 and 5. 
RIDERSHIP FORECASTING METHODOLOGY 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-34 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

to and from Norfolk is about 70,000 annual riders. Although Norfolk has increased ridership, 

some stations experienced a decrease in ridership. Most notably, Newport News boardings 

declined from 62,000 to 53,000 due to these diversions. Elasticity can be assessed by looking 

at individual markets. Washington, D.C. to Norfolk ridership increased by 195% with a 300% 

increase in service—an elasticity of 0.65. This value is similar to Amtrak’s historic experience 

regarding the sensitivity of ridership to train frequency. 

• Improve on-time performance. The sensitivity of the model was tested by assuming that the 

on-time percentage (OTP) for all markets to, from, or within the RC2RVA corridor was 

improved from 66 percent to 90 percent. When this is done, total modeled ridership increases 

by 116,000 daily customers. Ridership for just the stations in the DC2RVA (the market 

principally affected by the OTP improvement) increases from 496,000 to 530,000, an increase 

of 7 percent. This increase is consistent with Amtrak’s experience with the effect of OTP on 

ridership. 

2.8 OVERALL SUITABILITY FOR FORECASTING 

The DC2RVA model is able to replicate existing Amtrak ridership patterns with a reasonable level 

of fidelity. Tests of model sensitivity confirm that this model has appropriate sensitivities to 

station location, travel time, frequency, and on-time performance. Where guidance from Amtrak 

was available, model sensitivities from the DC2RVA model were compared to Amtrak’s 

experience regarding the change in ridership in response to service changes. In each case where 

comparisons were possible, the DC2RVA model matched Amtrak experience. 
RIDERSHIP FORECASTING METHODOLOGY 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-35 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

TABLE 2-27: FORECASTED YEAR 2015 ANNUAL BOARDINGS FOR SERVICE SENSITIVITY 

TEST SCENARIOS (NOTE: NOT ACTUAL BUILD ALTERNATIVES) 

Station/Region Exist RVM 

relocation 

Exist Save 

10 min. 

Improve 

Frequency 

Improve 

OTP 

New England 2,322,264 2,322,662 2,323,269 2,322,156 2,324,858 

New York 2,607,595 2,610,399 2,614,352 2,607,764 2,620,097 

New Jersey 1,021,097 1,022,042 1,022,918 1,021,232 1,024,875 

Philadelphia 1,246,034 1,247,785 1,247,985 1,246,031 1,250,217 

Delaware 618,418 618,965 619,585 618,407 621,789 

Maryland 1,149,386 1,150,404 1,151,841 1,148,264 1,162,242 

Washington 2,222,136 2,229,786 2,230,121 2,236,749 2,254,842 

Crystal City - - - - - 

Alexandria 88,051 88,874 86,411 92,846 92,275 

Burke/Manassas 13,836 13,834 13,845 13,868 15,362 

Culpepper 9,334 9,331 9,335 9,299 10,127 

Charlottesville 64,298 65,262 64,078 64,404 64,606 

Lynchburg 35,408 35,415 35,446 35,677 35,416 

Roanoke - - - - - 

Danville 6,112 6,113 6,116 6,121 6,209 

Lorton - - - - - 

Woodbridge 11,918 12,046 12,101 15,668 12,981 

Quantico 17,377 17,543 17,562 18,668 19,016 

Fredericksburg 63,767 66,358 70,841 67,142 69,017 

Ashland 14,006 14,959 13,768 14,847 14,925 

Richmond Staples Mill 175,578 204,092 187,421 190,627 187,312 

Richmond Main Street 23,424 8,854 24,434 20,111 25,198 

Williamsburg 25,509 25,301 26,818 22,466 27,107 

Newport News 61,899 61,849 65,231 53,392 65,736 

Petersburg 13,632 11,492 14,184 15,487 14,384 

Norfolk 20,014 20,087 21,444 55,725 21,163 

Rocky Mount 104,830 104,603 109,401 106,966 108,206 

Raleigh 58,531 58,441 59,797 58,967 59,521 

Cary 17,788 17,788 17,956 17,926 17,981 

Durham 54,137 54,198 54,715 54,887 54,593 

Salisbury 107,682 107,800 108,123 108,765 108,961 

Charlotte 83,864 83,969 84,483 84,287 84,470 

Southern Pines 3,571 3,574 3,606 3,616 3,644 

Total 12,261,495 12,293,825 12,317,188 12,332,364 12,377,132 

Change in Total Trips 32,330 55,693 70,869 115,637 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 3-1 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

OVERVIEW OF ALTERNATIVES 

3.1 NO BUILD DEFINITION 

The No Build Amtrak service plan is similar to the existing schedule with the addition the 

following: 

• One new daily intercity train from Lynchburg to Washington DC and continuing 

northward as an existing Northeast corridor train. A similar train is added in the 

southbound direction. 

• Conversion of the Cardinal from 3 times per week to daily. 

• Extension of two existing Northeast Corridor trains (in each direction) that currently 

begin and end in Richmond and will operate to and from Norfolk in the No Build. In 

addition, the model includes all Acela high-speed trains between Washington and 

Boston, other Northeast corridor trains that operate north of Washington, D.C., and intraNorth Carolina trains that only operate south of Raleigh. 

In addition, the model includes all Acela high-speed trains between Washington and Boston, 

other Northeast corridor trains that operate north of Washington, D.C., and intra-North Carolina 

trains that only operate south of Raleigh. 

3.2 DEFINITION OF BUILD ALTERNATIVES 

Seven different Build options were tested in this phase of the Project. All alternatives include 

similar increases in train frequencies and reduced travel times in the DC2RVA corridor. The 

principal difference among alternatives are the different configurations of service to one or more 

stations in the Richmond area. Because these station locations affect routings and travel times 

through the City of Richmond, station times for stations south of Richmond are different for each 

alternative. Station times north of Richmond are generally unchanged to maintain consistent 

transit schedules in the Northeast Corridor, north of Washington. 

The alternative definitions are as follows: 

3.2.1 Single Richmond Station Options 

• Existing Staples Mill Road Station: All Amtrak trains with the exception of the Auto Train 

serve Staples Mill Road Station only. Trains traveling to/from Norfolk and the Carolinas 

continue using the A-Line down to Centralia. Trains traveling to/from Newport News 

continue to use the Peninsula Subdivision. The existing Main Street station is closed. 

3 
OVERVIEW OF ALTERNATIVES 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 3-2 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

• New Boulevard Station: All Amtrak trains with the exception of the Auto Train serve a 

new Boulevard Station only. Trains traveling to/from Norfolk and the Carolinas continue 

using the A-Line down to Centralia. Trains traveling to/from Newport News continue to 

use the Peninsula Subdivision. The existing Main Street and Staples Mill Road stations are 

closed13. 

• New Broad Street Station: All Amtrak trains with the exception of the Auto Train serve a 

new Broad Street Station only. Trains traveling to/from Norfolk and the Carolinas 

continue using the A-Line down to Centralia. Trains traveling to/from Newport News 

continue to use the Peninsula Subdivision. The existing Main Street and Staples Mill Road 

stations are closed. 

• Existing Main Street Station: All Amtrak trains with the exception of the Auto Train serve 

Main Street Station only. Trains traveling to/from Norfolk and the Carolinas use the SLine from Main Street Station down to Centralia. Trains traveling to/from Newport News 

continue using the Peninsula Subdivision. The existing Staples Mill Road Station is closed. 

3.2.2 Downtown/Suburban Station Combination Options 

• Main Street & Staples Mill Road - Full Service: All Amtrak trains serve both stations. 

Trains traveling to/from Norfolk and the Carolinas use the S-Line from Main Street 

Station down to Centralia. Trains traveling to/from Newport News continue using the 

Peninsula Subdivision. 

• Main Street & Staples Mill Road - Split Service: Trains traveling to/from Norfolk and the 

Carolinas serve Staples Mill Road Station only, traveling the A-Line from Staples Mill 

Road Station down to Centralia. Trains traveling to/from Newport News continue to 

service Main Street Station using the Peninsula Subdivision 

• Main Street & Staples Mill Road - Shared Service: Trains traveling to/from Norfolk and 

the Carolinas use either the A-Line or the S-Line down to Centralia. Trains serving Main 

Street Station or Main Street Station and Staples Mill Road Station in combination use the 

S-Line. Trains serving only Staples Mill Road station use the A-Line. Trains traveling 

to/from Newport News continue using the Peninsula Subdivision. 

 

13 The alternative described in this section (and used for ridership modeling) is the Boulevard A-Line option. The full list 

of alternatives also includes a Boulevard S-Line option. Train schedules are similar and ridership results for the 

Boulevard alternative apply to both the A-Line and S-Line options. 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-1 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

This section presents DC2RVA ridership projections for the 2025 Forecast Year. 

4.1 OVERVIEW 

Table 4-1 presents an overview of the DC2RVA ridership forecast results for 2025. Two statistics 

are presented: 

• Annual rail ridership to, from, and through the DC2RVA corridor. This number includes 

all trips beginning or ending at any station in the corridor between Alexandria, Richmond, 

Newport News, Petersburg, and Norfolk. The number also includes all modeled rail 

travel between North Carolina and the Northeast Corridor who are also beneficiaries of 

the Project. This number does not include passengers on longer-distance trips (South 

Carolina, Georgia and Florida) since these markets are not part of the modeling region. 

An estimate of long-distance station boardings to and from corridor stations is presented 

later in this section. 

• Annual rail ridership (boardings+alightings) at any of the stations located in Richmond, 

Virginia. This statistic demonstrates the effectiveness of each of the Richmond station 

options to serve the Richmond area. 

The overview table shows that corridor ridership was approximately 1.4 million in 2015 and will 

grow to 1.7 million annual riders in the 2025 No Build Alternative. This change is due to a modest 

service improvement associated with the No Build Alternative and demographic growth between 

2015 and 2025. 

Each of the Build Alternatives attracts approximately 2.5 million annual corridor riders. This 

increase is a result of significant improvements to train frequency, travel time, and on-time 

performance. The different station options generate similar levels of overall ridership. 

4.2 YEAR 2025 ANNUAL STATION RIDERSHIP 

Table 4-2 presents annual station usage (sum of station boardings and alightings) for each station 

in the Project corridor for each alternative. 

4.3 YEAR 2025 ANNUAL MARKET-LEVEL RIDERSHIP 

Table 4-3 presents annual rail ridership occurring for different geographic markets in the 

modeling area. These markets are defined as follows: 

4 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-2 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

• Intra-Project Corridor: trips occurring entirely within the Project corridor defined as 

including Alexandria, Richmond, Petersburg, Newport News, and Norfolk and all 

intermediate stations. 

• Project Corridor-NEC: trips occurring between the Project corridor and Amtrak’s 

Northeast Corridor between Washington and Boston (inclusive). 

• Project Corridor-NC: trips occurring between the Project corridor and stations in North 

Carolina. 

• NC-NEC: trips occurring between North Carolina and the Northeast Corridor. 

• Other VA-Project Corridor: trips occurring between other parts of Virginia (i.e., along the 

route of the Crescent or Cardinal) and the Project corridor. 

• Other VA-NEC: trips occurring between other parts of Virginia and the Northeast 

Corridor. 

• Other VA-NC: trips occurring between other parts of Virginia and North Carolina. 

• NEC-NEC: trips occurring between stations located along the Northeast Corridor. 

• NC-NC: trips occurring between stations located in North Carolina. 

• Other VA-Other VA: trips occurring between stations located in other parts of Virginia. 

This table also includes two subtotals and one table total, defined as follows: 

• Subtotal To/From/Through Corridor: This subtotal includes all trips classified as 

o Intra-Project Corridor 

o Project Corridor-NEC 

o Project Corridor-NC 

o NC-NEC 

o Other VA-Project Corridor 

o Other VA-NEC 

•

• Subtotal Other Trips: Any trip not included in the previous subtotal. 

• Total Modeled Trips: All trips in the table. 

4.4 YEAR 2025 STATION RIDERSHIP BY TRAIN TYPE 

This section presents annual station usage (sum of station boardings and alightings) for each 

station stratified by the type of trip. This information is used in the station planning process to 

determine the parking requirements. The following information is provided: 

• Table 4-4 presents regional rail ridership for travel between corridor stations and a station 

located along the Northeast Corridor or in North Carolina. This category does not include 

trips within the corridor or between the corridor and Washington, D.C. 

• Table 4-5 presents ridership for that subset of travel occurring within the corridor or 

between the corridor and Washington, D.C. 

• Table 4-6 presents an estimate of passengers boarding long-distance trains which are the 

difference between total ridership at each station and the modeled ridership. 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-3 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-1: Overview of Year 2015 and 2025 Annual Corridor Ridership by Alternative 

Market Year 

2015 

Existing 

Schedule 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 No 

Build 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill Only 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Boulevard 

90% OTP 

Year 

2025 

Broad 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Main 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Full 90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Split 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Shared 

90% 

OTP 

Annual Rail Trips 

To/From/Through 

Corridor (millions) 

1.388 1.725 2.579 2.509 2.474 2.521 2.553 2.519 2.556 

Annual 

Boardings+Alightings 

at Richmond 

Stations (thousands) 

398 458 715 700 678 726 788 696 770 

Table 4-2: Year 2015 and 2025 Annual Ridership (Boardings+Alightings) by Station and 

Alternative 

Station Year 

2015 

Existing 

Schedule 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 No 

Build 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill Only 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Boulevard 

90% OTP 

Year 

2025 

Broad 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Main 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Full 90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Split 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Shared 

90% 

OTP 

Petersburg, VA 27,265 37,502 62,964 53,934 55,000 36,801 38,733 54,708 42,278 

Norfolk, VA 40,028 91,783 169,483 147,103 148,915 146,171 146,605 170,131 148,942 

Newport News, VA 123,798 125,383 185,784 191,938 173,487 192,935 190,315 174,887 189,887 

Williamsburg, VA 51,017 57,263 82,233 85,103 79,007 82,803 81,345 78,178 81,218 

Richmond, VA Main 46,849 50,846 - - - 725,586 370,238 107,090 254,728 

Richmond, VA 

Boulevard/Broad 

- - - 700,152 677,667 - - - - 

Richmond, VA 

Staples Mill 

351,156 407,119 714,795 - - - 417,774 588,610 514,975 

Ashland, VA 28,013 32,694 47,368 50,437 54,002 55,771 44,165 45,701 44,388 

Fredericksburg, VA 127,535 168,627 305,177 311,500 311,761 314,017 303,303 301,810 303,120 

Quantico, VA 34,754 37,945 45,313 44,943 44,278 45,118 45,257 45,398 45,527 

Woodbridge, VA 23,836 31,191 82,694 82,304 81,140 82,521 83,057 82,171 83,467 

Alexandria, VA 174,238 208,496 233,602 227,706 224,571 228,278 230,840 230,896 233,030 

Total 1,028,488 1,248,848 1,929,413 1,895,121 1,849,827 1,910,001 1,951,631 1,879,581 1,941,560 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-4 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-3: Year 2015 and 2025 Annual Ridership by Market and Alternative 

Market Year 

2015 

Existing 

Schedule 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 No 

Build 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill Only 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Boulevard 

90% OTP 

Year 

2025 

Broad 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Main 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Full 90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Split 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Shared 

90% 

OTP 

Intra-Project 

Corridor 

121,605 148,349 212,663 211,148 203,320 215,260 220,486 212,041 219,212 

Project CorridorNEC 698,092 840,243 1,297,680 1,282,593 1,250,171 1,284,984 1,313,702 1,246,791 1,303,529 

Project CorridorNC 64,363 79,060 179,221 162,628 165,614 166,123 169,464 181,913 172,078 

NC-NEC 262,862 298,926 545,512 508,502 511,013 503,735 505,517 534,918 517,204 

OtherVA-Project 

Corridor 

22,822 32,848 35,284 35,326 35,183 36,145 35,318 35,264 35,311 

OtherVA-NEC 217,852 326,060 308,382 309,096 309,106 314,542 308,546 308,464 308,546 

Subtotal 

To/From/Through 

Corridor 

1,387,596 1,725,486 2,578,742 2,509,293 2,474,407 2,520,790 2,553,034 2,519,391 2,555,880 

OtherVA-NC 6,912 7,554 8,063 8,077 8,029 8,084 7,957 7,939 8,033 

NEC-NEC 10,598,458 12,202,645 12,197,982 12,197,982 12,197,982 12,197,251 12,197,982 12,199,376 12,197,982 

NC-NC 263,335 394,358 451,695 452,634 452,992 452,262 452,523 448,949 452,252 

OtherVA-OtherVA 5,194 15,003 12,290 12,298 12,299 12,309 12,292 12,289 12,292 

Subtotal Other 

Trips 

10,873,899 12,619,560 12,670,030 12,670,991 12,671,303 12,669,905 12,670,754 12,668,553 12,670,561 

Total Modeled Trips 12,261,495 14,345,046 15,248,772 15,180,284 15,145,710 15,190,695 15,223,788 15,187,943 15,226,441 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-5 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-4: Year 2015 and 2025 Annual Regional Train Ridership (Boardings+Alightings) by 

Station and Alternative 

Station Year 

2015 

Existing 

Schedule 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 No 

Build 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill Only 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Boulevard 

90% OTP 

Year 

2025 

Broad 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Main 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Full 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Split 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Shared 

90% 

OTP 

Petersburg, VA 17,010 23,036 40,873 35,365 35,763 24,569 26,222 35,548 29,019 

Norfolk, VA 16,741 50,184 83,607 68,579 69,303 68,001 69,138 86,013 71,605 

Newport News, VA 61,583 61,167 94,075 96,739 87,266 96,798 95,636 86,981 95,292 

Williamsburg, VA 22,308 24,475 36,990 37,665 34,874 36,499 35,911 34,035 35,895 

Richmond, VA Main 17,940 19,455 - - - 356,237 191,125 47,281 127,587 

Richmond, VA 

Boulevard/Broad 

- - - 342,188 331,607 - - - - 

Richmond, VA 

Staples Mill 

178,794 203,447 351,158 - - - 196,292 293,972 249,340 

Ashland, VA 20,259 22,707 30,875 33,826 37,817 38,151 30,894 31,334 30,920 

Fredericksburg, VA 102,721 133,087 227,066 232,275 232,944 232,981 225,577 223,665 225,382 

Quantico, VA 21,403 22,245 28,573 28,413 28,405 28,262 28,377 28,692 28,695 

Woodbridge, VA 15,880 21,997 49,666 49,464 49,418 49,115 49,406 50,166 49,817 

Alexandria, VA 81,809 100,356 109,069 105,500 105,699 106,663 105,029 108,042 107,858 

Total 556,448 682,156 1,051,952 1,030,014 1,013,097 1,037,276 1,053,606 1,025,727 1,051,411 

 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-6 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-5: Year 2015 and 2025 Annual Virginia/DC Train Ridership (Boardings+Alightings) 

by Station and Alternative 

Station Year 

2015 

Existing 

Schedule 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 No 

Build 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill Only 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Boulevard 

90% OTP 

Year 

2025 

Broad 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Main 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Full 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Split 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Shared 

90% 

OTP 

Petersburg, VA 10,254 14,465 22,091 18,569 19,236 12,231 12,511 19,160 13,260 

Norfolk, VA 23,287 41,599 85,876 78,524 79,612 78,170 77,467 84,119 77,336 

Newport News, VA 62,214 64,216 91,709 95,199 86,221 96,137 94,679 87,906 94,595 

Williamsburg, VA 28,710 32,788 45,244 47,439 44,134 46,304 45,434 44,144 45,323 

Richmond, VA Main 28,909 31,390 - - - 369,350 179,113 59,809 127,141 

Richmond, VA 

Boulevard/Broad 

- - - 357,964 346,060 - - - - 

Richmond, VA 

Staples Mill 

172,362 203,672 363,637 - - - 221,482 294,638 265,635 

Ashland, VA 7,754 9,987 16,494 16,611 16,184 17,620 13,271 14,367 13,468 

Fredericksburg, VA 24,814 35,541 78,111 79,225 78,817 81,036 77,726 78,144 77,738 

Quantico, VA 13,351 15,700 16,740 16,530 15,872 16,856 16,880 16,706 16,832 

Woodbridge, VA 7,956 9,194 33,028 32,840 31,721 33,406 33,651 32,005 33,650 

Alexandria, VA 92,429 108,140 124,532 122,206 118,872 121,615 125,811 122,854 125,172 

Total 472,040 566,692 877,462 865,107 836,730 872,725 898,025 853,853 890,149 

 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-7 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-6: Year 2015 and 2025 Annual Intercity Train Ridership (Boardings+Alightings) by 

Station and Alternative

Station Year 

2015 

Existing 

Schedule 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 No 

Build 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill Only 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Boulevard 

90% OTP 

Year 

2025 

Broad 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Main 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Full 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Split 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2025 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Shared 

90% 

OTP 

Petersburg, VA 4,226 4,788 4,788 4,788 4,788 4,788 4,788 4,788 4,788 

Norfolk, VA - - - - - - - - - 

Newport News, VA - - - - - - - - - 

Williamsburg, VA 199 226 226 226 226 226 226 226 226 

Richmond, VA Main - - - - - 31,126 - - - 

Richmond, VA 

Boulevard/Broad 

- - - 31,126 31,126 - - - - 

Richmond, VA 

Staples Mill 

27,214 31,126 31,126 - - - 31,126 31,126 31,126 

Ashland, VA - - - - - - - - - 

Fredericksburg, VA - - - - - - - - - 

Quantico, VA - - - - - - - - - 

Woodbridge, VA - - - - - - - - - 

Alexandria, VA 15,671 18,390 18,390 18,390 18,390 18,390 18,390 18,390 18,390 

Total 47,310 54,530 54,530 54,530 54,530 54,530 54,530 54,530 54,530 

 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-8 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

4.5 YEAR 2025 OTHER RIDERSHIP-RELATED STATISTICS 

This section presents detailed ridership-related statistics for each alternative. These statistics are 

presented in Tables 4-7 through 4-62 and are organized so that the first set of seven tables (4-7 to 

4-13) describe outcomes associated with the No Build Alternative followed by the tables for each 

Build Alternative in the order defined in Chapter 3. 

The information provided in these tables are: 

• Annual trips by mode and geographic market. Modes are defined as highway, air, bus, 

high-speed rail (HSR, meaning Acela14), and regional rail. All existing and proposed 

future service in the DC2RVA corridor is categorized as regional rail. Geographic markets 

include: 

o NEC-NEC: internal to the Northeast Corridor (Washington, D.C. and north) 

o NEC-VA: home in the NEC, non-home trip-end in Virginia 

o NEC-NC: home in the NEC, non-home trip-end in North Carolina 

o VA-NEC: home in Virginia, non-home trip-end in the NEC 

o VA-VA: internal to Virginia 

o VA-NC: home Virginia, non-home trip-end in North Carolina 

o NC-NEC: home in North Carolina, non-home trip-end in the NEC 

o NC-VA: home in North Carolina, non-home trip-end in Virginia 

o NC-NC: internal to North Carolina 

• Annual highway miles by mode and geographic market. The modes and geographic 

markets are the same as described above. This statistic presents the number of highway 

person-miles of travel accrued for each mode on an annual basis. For highway trips, this 

statistic includes the entire trip from origin to destination. For common carrier modes, 

this statistic includes just the access and egress portion of the trip. Since the DC2RVA 

model does not estimate mode-of-access, this statistic is computed with the assumption 

that all access/egress travel is made by automobile so that this statistic and the related 

environmental impacts are not underestimated. 

• Average highway miles per trip by mode and geographic market. This statistic is 

calculated by dividing highway miles by the number of trips and is useful in assessing the 

reasonableness of each estimate. 

• Annual common carrier passenger miles by mode and geographic market. The modes 

and geographic markets are the same as described above. This statistic presents the 

number of common carrier person-miles of travel accrued for each mode on an annual 

basis. For highway trips, this statistic is always equal to zero. For common carrier modes, 

this statistic includes just the travel between the origin station and the destination station. 

 

14 Since all trains in the DC2RVA corridor are coded as regional trains, relatively few trips outside of Northern Virginia 

elect to use the HSR option. Northern Virginia trips have the option of traveling to Washington, D.C. and boarding an 

Acela train at Union Station. Other travelers board a regional train in the DC2RVA corridor which provides a direct trip 

to the Northeast corridor at a much lower fare. 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-9 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

• Average common carrier passengers miles per trip by mode and geographic market. This 

statistic is calculated by dividing the common carrier passenger miles by the number of 

trips and is useful in assessing the reasonableness of each estimate. 

• Annual rail revenue by mode and geographic market. The modes and geographic 

markets are the same as described above. This statistic presents the rail revenue (in 

constant 2015 year dollars) for the rail modes. 

• Average rail revenue per trip by mode and geographic market. This statistic is calculated 

by dividing the rail revenue by the number of trips and is useful in assessing the 

reasonableness of each estimate. 

Table 4-7: Year 2025 No Build Annual Trips by Mode and Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 170,203,956 5,821,936 38,896,441 2,634,988 10,144,794 

NEC-VA 28,565,222 1,713,306 2,583,177 249,215 1,620,637 

NEC-NC 4,911,855 2,739,164 1,067,047 - 121,615 

VA-NEC 26,736,236 1,783,380 2,001,619 224,135 1,473,120 

VA-VA 20,259,020 73,946 936,032 746 324,337 

VA-NC 12,783,552 272,811 1,141,690 - 54,014 

NC-NEC 5,143,923 3,280,503 223,757 - 146,681 

NC-VA 13,395,487 294,562 481,665 - 69,446 

NC-NC 25,578,461 30,953 2,031,504 - 390,402 

Total 307,577,712 16,010,561 49,362,931 3,109,084 14,345,046 

Table 4-8: Year 2025 No Build Annual Highway Miles (access/egress for common 

carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 26,468,969,270 256,109,805 1,944,745,593 94,584,279 404,226,838 

NEC-VA 6,849,728,866 80,350,126 121,360,114 11,568,762 69,251,348 

NEC-NC 2,528,119,587 144,708,934 54,738,592 - 4,537,704 

VA-NEC 6,355,517,029 81,359,458 97,046,666 10,125,512 61,654,389 

VA-VA 2,991,405,982 2,553,273 38,874,119 51,567 12,604,208 

VA-NC 2,764,906,436 13,716,787 62,012,350 - 2,352,137 

NC-NEC 2,577,132,272 428,025,713 13,732,491 - 5,102,896 

NC-VA 2,911,252,393 14,830,159 32,008,980 - 2,985,763 

NC-NC 3,955,827,569 2,114,566 122,611,345 - 15,373,532 

Total 57,402,859,403 1,023,768,820 2,487,130,251 116,330,120 578,088,816 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-10 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-9: Year 2025 No Build Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.5 44.0 50.0 35.9 39.8 

NEC-VA 239.8 46.9 47.0 46.4 42.7 

NEC-NC 514.7 52.8 51.3 - 37.3 

VA-NEC 237.7 45.6 48.5 45.2 41.9 

VA-VA 147.7 34.5 41.5 69.2 38.9 

VA-NC 216.3 50.3 54.3 - 43.5 

NC-NEC 501.0 130.5 61.4 - 34.8 

NC-VA 217.3 50.3 66.5 - 43.0 

NC-NC 154.7 68.3 60.4 - 39.4 

Total 186.6 63.9 50.4 37.4 40.3 

Table 4-10: Year 2025 No Build Annual Common Carrier Passenger Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 1,560,572,295 4,129,276,813 439,145,516 1,413,218,640 

NEC-VA - 584,583,273 465,769,860 46,437,271 320,583,192 

NEC-NC - 1,358,820,689 491,299,044 - 53,862,823 

VA-NEC - 615,861,060 424,903,515 40,572,765 294,672,914 

VA-VA - 25,864,068 93,261,150 21,620 39,359,038 

VA-NC - 74,677,308 208,871,302 - 14,442,403 

NC-NEC - 1,655,366,204 81,050,761 - 66,969,235 

NC-VA - 82,425,182 93,155,970 - 19,276,403 

NC-NC - 3,780,339 227,338,185 - 44,684,642 

Total - 5,961,950,417 6,214,926,599 526,177,172 2,267,069,290 

Table 4-11: Year 2025 No Build Average Common Carrier Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.1 106.2 166.7 139.3 

NEC-VA - 341.2 180.3 186.3 197.8 

NEC-NC - 496.1 460.4 - 442.9 

VA-NEC - 345.3 212.3 181.0 200.0 

VA-VA - 349.8 99.6 29.0 121.4 

VA-NC - 273.7 182.9 - 267.4 

NC-NEC - 504.6 362.2 - 456.6 

NC-VA - 279.8 193.4 - 277.6 

NC-NC - 122.1 111.9 - 114.5 

Total - 372.4 125.9 169.2 158.0 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-11 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-12: Year 2025 No Build Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 380,918,879 $ 620,316,793 

NEC-VA $ 38,487,585 $ 124,146,637 

NEC-NC $ - $ 11,552,820 

VA-NEC $ 33,967,173 $ 111,903,064 

VA-VA $ 34,801 $ 12,922,128 

VA-NC $ - $ 3,186,513 

NC-NEC $ - $ 14,086,784 

NC-VA $ - $ 4,167,435 

NC-NC $ - $ 10,068,214 

Total $ 453,408,438 $ 912,350,388 

Table 4-13: Year 2025 No Build Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.56 $ 61.15 

 NEC-VA $ 154.43 $ 76.60 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 94.99 

 VA-NEC $ 151.55 $ 75.96 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 39.84 

 VA-NC $ - $ 58.99 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 96.04 

 NC-VA $ - $ 60.01 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.79 

 Total $ 145.83 $ 63.60 

Table 4-14: Year 2025 Staples Mill Annual Trips by Mode and Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 170,203,914 5,821,936 38,896,441 2,634,986 10,144,838 

NEC-VA 28,427,707 1,699,037 2,555,835 241,659 1,807,320 

NEC-NC 4,868,124 2,691,205 1,051,020 - 229,332 

VA-NEC 26,595,243 1,769,787 1,978,460 217,267 1,657,733 

VA-VA 20,140,902 73,398 927,173 726 451,882 

VA-NC 12,730,149 265,668 1,132,795 - 123,455 

NC-NEC 5,099,383 3,227,329 218,135 - 250,017 

NC-VA 13,339,453 288,298 477,304 - 136,104 

NC-NC 25,528,959 30,815 2,023,456 - 448,090 

Total 306,933,833 15,867,472 49,260,618 3,094,638 15,248,772 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-12 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-15: Year 2025 Staples Mill Annual Highway Miles (access/egress for 

common carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 26,468,968,742 256,109,805 1,944,745,593 94,584,192 404,223,753 

NEC-VA 6,818,099,315 79,694,820 120,141,955 11,082,086 75,146,417 

NEC-NC 2,510,544,720 142,629,358 54,229,566 - 7,712,728 

VA-NEC 6,323,875,866 80,735,014 96,118,017 9,688,000 66,775,590 

VA-VA 2,975,514,681 2,537,322 38,546,730 50,085 17,120,937 

VA-NC 2,751,038,364 13,424,720 61,700,277 - 4,715,548 

NC-NEC 2,559,556,096 425,790,318 13,466,670 - 7,917,773 

NC-VA 2,897,318,618 14,570,195 31,784,442 - 5,179,827 

NC-NC 3,948,873,141 2,106,779 122,244,540 - 17,726,421 

Total 57,253,789,544 1,017,598,330 2,482,977,790 115,404,362 606,518,996 

Table 4-16: Year 2025 Staples Mill Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.5 44.0 50.0 35.9 39.8 

NEC-VA 239.8 46.9 47.0 45.9 41.6 

NEC-NC 515.7 53.0 51.6 - 33.6 

VA-NEC 237.8 45.6 48.6 44.6 40.3 

VA-VA 147.7 34.6 41.6 69.0 37.9 

VA-NC 216.1 50.5 54.5 - 38.2 

NC-NEC 501.9 131.9 61.7 - 31.7 

NC-VA 217.2 50.5 66.6 - 38.1 

NC-NC 154.7 68.4 60.4 - 39.6 

Total 186.5 64.1 50.4 37.3 39.8 

Table 4-17: Year 2025 Staples Mill Annual Common Carrier Passenger Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 1,560,572,295 4,129,276,813 439,145,452 1,413,218,994 

NEC-VA - 580,593,256 459,849,628 45,295,570 362,999,237 

NEC-NC - 1,339,277,180 484,389,474 - 106,731,876 

VA-NEC - 612,048,670 419,810,921 39,681,170 335,947,316 

VA-VA - 25,782,788 92,218,673 21,056 56,202,354 

VA-NC - 72,840,797 206,605,859 - 36,911,681 

NC-NEC - 1,633,831,886 79,348,250 - 115,950,274 

NC-VA - 80,786,238 92,084,036 - 39,045,160 

NC-NC - 3,763,078 226,384,260 - 51,334,812 

Total - 5,909,496,188 6,189,967,912 524,143,249 2,518,341,704 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-13 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-18: Year 2025 Staples Mill Average Common Carrier Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.1 106.2 166.7 139.3 

NEC-VA - 341.7 179.9 187.4 200.8 

NEC-NC - 497.6 460.9 - 465.4 

VA-NEC - 345.8 212.2 182.6 202.7 

VA-VA - 351.3 99.5 29.0 124.4 

VA-NC - 274.2 182.4 - 299.0 

NC-NEC - 506.2 363.8 - 463.8 

NC-VA - 280.2 192.9 - 286.9 

NC-NC - 122.1 111.9 - 114.6 

Total - 372.4 125.7 169.4 165.2 

Table 4-19: Year 2025 Staples Mill Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 380,918,777 $ 620,320,239 

NEC-VA $ 37,494,801 $ 138,326,075 

NEC-NC $ - $ 22,354,367 

VA-NEC $ 33,159,824 $ 125,218,666 

VA-VA $ 33,893 $ 17,809,547 

VA-NC $ - $ 7,814,801 

NC-NEC $ - $ 25,246,949 

NC-VA $ - $ 8,603,552 

NC-NC $ - $ 11,522,662 

Total $ 451,607,295 $ 977,216,858 

Table 4-20: Year 2025 Staples Mill Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.56 $ 61.15 

 NEC-VA $ 155.16 $ 76.54 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 97.48 

 VA-NEC $ 152.62 $ 75.54 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 39.41 

 VA-NC $ - $ 63.30 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 100.98 

 NC-VA $ - $ 63.21 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.72 

 Total $ 145.93 $ 64.08 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-14 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-21: Year 2025 Boulevard Annual Trips by Mode and Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 170,203,914 5,821,936 38,896,441 2,634,986 10,144,838 

NEC-VA 28,431,405 1,699,298 2,556,082 241,659 1,803,113 

NEC-NC 4,875,098 2,696,451 1,053,254 - 214,879 

VA-NEC 26,600,629 1,770,238 1,978,911 217,267 1,651,445 

VA-VA 20,145,872 73,505 927,584 726 446,394 

VA-NC 12,737,512 266,504 1,134,023 - 114,028 

NC-NEC 5,108,810 3,234,762 218,919 - 232,372 

NC-VA 13,349,692 289,295 477,693 - 124,481 

NC-NC 25,528,383 30,822 2,023,381 - 448,734 

Total 306,981,315 15,882,810 49,266,288 3,094,638 15,180,284 

Table 4-22: Year 2025 Boulevard Annual Highway Miles (access/egress for 

common carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 26,468,968,742 256,109,805 1,944,745,593 94,584,192 404,223,753 

NEC-VA 6,819,000,381 79,704,856 120,142,471 11,082,086 74,698,370 

NEC-NC 2,513,316,695 142,866,969 54,315,827 - 7,221,632 

VA-NEC 6,325,145,499 80,750,257 96,120,808 9,688,000 66,212,651 

VA-VA 2,976,346,862 2,540,437 38,558,050 50,085 16,715,552 

VA-NC 2,752,929,106 13,459,915 61,737,964 - 4,279,410 

NC-NEC 2,563,422,042 426,121,167 13,503,132 - 7,363,733 

NC-VA 2,899,844,938 14,612,399 31,804,176 - 4,712,394 

NC-NC 3,948,825,225 2,107,270 122,239,513 - 17,733,669 

Total 57,267,799,488 1,018,273,076 2,483,167,534 115,404,362 603,161,165 

Table 4-23: Year 2025 Boulevard Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.5 44.0 50.0 35.9 39.8 

NEC-VA 239.8 46.9 47.0 45.9 41.4 

NEC-NC 515.5 53.0 51.6 - 33.6 

VA-NEC 237.8 45.6 48.6 44.6 40.1 

VA-VA 147.7 34.6 41.6 69.0 37.4 

VA-NC 216.1 50.5 54.4 - 37.5 

NC-NEC 501.8 131.7 61.7 - 31.7 

NC-VA 217.2 50.5 66.6 - 37.9 

NC-NC 154.7 68.4 60.4 - 39.5 

Total 186.6 64.1 50.4 37.3 39.7 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-15 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-24: Year 2025 Boulevard Annual Common Carrier Passenger Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 1,560,572,295 4,129,276,813 439,145,452 1,413,218,994 

NEC-VA - 580,662,914 459,899,817 45,295,570 362,808,113 

NEC-NC - 1,341,417,762 485,341,603 - 100,073,175 

VA-NEC - 612,158,093 419,902,962 39,681,170 335,326,090 

VA-VA - 25,798,627 92,274,084 21,056 55,874,731 

VA-NC - 73,058,105 206,919,813 - 33,898,014 

NC-NEC - 1,636,894,724 79,602,910 - 107,759,433 

NC-VA - 81,059,066 92,191,398 - 35,584,420 

NC-NC - 3,763,909 226,373,953 - 51,408,537 

Total - 5,915,385,495 6,191,783,352 524,143,249 2,495,951,507 

Table 4-25: Year 2025 Boulevard Average Common Carrier Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.1 106.2 166.7 139.3 

NEC-VA - 341.7 179.9 187.4 201.2 

NEC-NC - 497.5 460.8 - 465.7 

VA-NEC - 345.8 212.2 182.6 203.1 

VA-VA - 351.0 99.5 29.0 125.2 

VA-NC - 274.1 182.5 - 297.3 

NC-NEC - 506.0 363.6 - 463.7 

NC-VA - 280.2 193.0 - 285.9 

NC-NC - 122.1 111.9 - 114.6 

Total - 372.4 125.7 169.4 164.4 

Table 4-26: Year 2025 Boulevard Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 380,918,777 $ 620,320,239 

NEC-VA $ 37,494,801 $ 139,490,193 

NEC-NC $ - $ 20,979,232 

VA-NEC $ 33,159,824 $ 126,580,162 

VA-VA $ 33,893 $ 20,700,344 

VA-NC $ - $ 8,578,973 

NC-NEC $ - $ 23,433,212 

NC-VA $ - $ 8,864,924 

NC-NC $ - $ 11,537,432 

Total $ 451,607,295 $ 980,484,711 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-16 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-27: Year 2025 Boulevard Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.56 $ 61.15 

 NEC-VA $ 155.16 $ 77.36 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 97.63 

 VA-NEC $ 152.62 $ 76.65 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 46.37 

 VA-NC $ - $ 75.24 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 100.84 

 NC-VA $ - $ 71.22 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.71 

 Total $ 145.93 $ 64.59 

Table 4-28: Year 2025 Broad Street Annual Trips by Mode and Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 170,203,914 5,821,936 38,896,441 2,634,986 10,144,838 

NEC-VA 28,444,699 1,700,719 2,558,224 241,659 1,786,256 

NEC-NC 4,875,689 2,696,902 1,053,437 - 213,653 

VA-NEC 26,608,658 1,771,052 1,980,284 217,267 1,641,229 

VA-VA 20,158,272 73,503 928,434 726 433,145 

VA-NC 12,737,066 266,557 1,133,891 - 114,553 

NC-NEC 5,106,966 3,233,253 218,773 - 235,872 

NC-VA 13,347,507 289,069 477,510 - 127,073 

NC-NC 25,528,056 30,821 2,023,352 - 449,091 

Total 307,010,828 15,883,812 49,270,347 3,094,638 15,145,710 

Table 4-29: Year 2025 Broad Street Annual Highway Miles (access/egress for 

common carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 26,468,968,742 256,109,805 1,944,745,593 94,584,192 404,223,753 

NEC-VA 6,822,772,800 79,765,784 120,225,437 11,082,086 74,103,692 

NEC-NC 2,513,550,817 142,887,311 54,322,622 - 7,179,798 

VA-NEC 6,327,283,873 80,786,690 96,179,812 9,688,000 65,876,174 

VA-VA 2,978,015,181 2,540,460 38,592,295 50,085 16,230,993 

VA-NC 2,752,870,715 13,461,870 61,734,777 - 4,316,190 

NC-NEC 2,562,618,153 426,053,787 13,496,088 - 7,469,373 

NC-VA 2,899,304,137 14,602,738 31,795,507 - 4,806,045 

NC-NC 3,948,774,281 2,107,230 122,237,739 - 17,746,294 

Total 57,274,158,699 1,018,315,674 2,483,329,870 115,404,362 601,952,311 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-17 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-30: Year 2025 Broad Street Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.5 44.0 50.0 35.9 39.8 

NEC-VA 239.9 46.9 47.0 45.9 41.5 

NEC-NC 515.5 53.0 51.6 - 33.6 

VA-NEC 237.8 45.6 48.6 44.6 40.1 

VA-VA 147.7 34.6 41.6 69.0 37.5 

VA-NC 216.1 50.5 54.4 - 37.7 

NC-NEC 501.8 131.8 61.7 - 31.7 

NC-VA 217.2 50.5 66.6 - 37.8 

NC-NC 154.7 68.4 60.4 - 39.5 

Total 186.6 64.1 50.4 37.3 39.7 

Table 4-31: Year 2025 Broad Street Annual Common Carrier Passenger Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 1,560,572,295 4,129,276,813 439,145,452 1,413,218,994 

NEC-VA - 581,108,164 460,464,906 45,295,570 357,875,896 

NEC-NC - 1,341,601,065 485,419,788 - 99,509,117 

VA-NEC - 612,414,328 420,258,754 39,681,170 332,541,783 

VA-VA - 25,798,433 92,378,280 21,056 54,140,440 

VA-NC - 73,071,927 206,904,049 - 33,966,438 

NC-NEC - 1,636,260,614 79,553,043 - 109,483,591 

NC-VA - 80,997,510 92,150,382 - 36,338,511 

NC-NC - 3,763,847 226,370,260 - 51,464,591 

Total - 5,915,588,184 6,192,776,273 524,143,249 2,488,539,361 

Table 4-32: Year 2025 Broad Street Average Common Carrier Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.1 106.2 166.7 139.3 

NEC-VA - 341.7 180.0 187.4 200.3 

NEC-NC - 497.5 460.8 - 465.8 

VA-NEC - 345.8 212.2 182.6 202.6 

VA-VA - 351.0 99.5 29.0 125.0 

VA-NC - 274.1 182.5 - 296.5 

NC-NEC - 506.1 363.6 - 464.2 

NC-VA - 280.2 193.0 - 286.0 

NC-NC - 122.1 111.9 - 114.6 

Total - 372.4 125.7 169.4 164.3 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-18 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-33: Year 2025 Broad Street Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 380,918,777 $ 620,320,239 

NEC-VA $ 37,494,801 $ 138,068,152 

NEC-NC $ - $ 20,860,801 

VA-NEC $ 33,159,824 $ 125,718,924 

VA-VA $ 33,893 $ 20,063,025 

VA-NC $ - $ 8,642,643 

NC-NEC $ - $ 23,891,251 

NC-VA $ - $ 9,129,586 

NC-NC $ - $ 11,550,256 

Total $ 451,607,295 $ 978,244,876 

Table 4-34: Year 2025 Broad Street Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.56 $ 61.15 

 NEC-VA $ 155.16 $ 77.29 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 97.64 

 VA-NEC $ 152.62 $ 76.60 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 46.32 

 VA-NC $ - $ 75.45 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 101.29 

 NC-VA $ - $ 71.85 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.72 

 Total $ 145.93 $ 64.59 

Table 4-35: Year 2025 Main Street Annual Trips by Mode and Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 170,204,148 5,821,936 38,896,484 2,635,001 10,144,546 

NEC-VA 28,429,375 1,699,350 2,556,035 241,659 1,805,138 

NEC-NC 4,875,776 2,696,898 1,053,528 - 213,479 

VA-NEC 26,596,422 1,770,058 1,978,577 217,326 1,656,106 

VA-VA 20,140,365 73,503 927,448 726 452,040 

VA-NC 12,736,966 266,537 1,134,000 - 114,564 

NC-NEC 5,110,909 3,234,608 218,995 - 230,352 

NC-VA 13,348,234 289,214 477,614 - 126,098 

NC-NC 25,528,851 30,822 2,023,275 - 448,371 

Total 306,971,046 15,882,924 49,265,957 3,094,712 15,190,695 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-19 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-36: Year 2025 Main Street Annual Highway Miles (access/egress for 

common carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 26,468,979,147 256,109,805 1,944,745,973 94,584,306 404,221,315 

NEC-VA 6,818,124,020 79,699,652 120,111,122 11,082,086 74,789,931 

NEC-NC 2,513,580,024 142,887,020 54,328,367 - 7,176,559 

VA-NEC 6,323,732,375 80,736,137 96,076,119 9,691,522 66,472,136 

VA-VA 2,975,473,633 2,540,332 38,532,951 50,085 17,024,301 

VA-NC 2,752,851,591 13,461,385 61,744,197 - 4,301,112 

NC-NEC 2,564,191,904 426,129,889 13,511,204 - 7,474,180 

NC-VA 2,899,529,744 14,611,146 31,802,911 - 4,752,889 

NC-NC 3,948,884,318 2,107,284 122,226,872 - 17,796,255 

Total 57,265,346,755 1,018,282,650 2,483,079,716 115,407,999 604,008,678 

Table 4-37: Year 2025 Main Street Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.5 44.0 50.0 35.9 39.8 

NEC-VA 239.8 46.9 47.0 45.9 41.4 

NEC-NC 515.5 53.0 51.6 - 33.6 

VA-NEC 237.8 45.6 48.6 44.6 40.1 

VA-VA 147.7 34.6 41.5 69.0 37.7 

VA-NC 216.1 50.5 54.4 - 37.5 

NC-NEC 501.7 131.7 61.7 - 32.4 

NC-VA 217.2 50.5 66.6 - 37.7 

NC-NC 154.7 68.4 60.4 - 39.7 

Total 186.5 64.1 50.4 37.3 39.8 

Table 4-38: Year 2025 Main Street Annual Common Carrier Passenger Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 1,560,572,295 4,129,278,610 439,146,052 1,413,207,041 

NEC-VA - 580,667,407 459,893,973 45,295,570 363,716,424 

NEC-NC - 1,341,598,508 485,457,452 - 99,450,205 

VA-NEC - 612,097,902 419,823,790 39,683,534 336,867,998 

VA-VA - 25,798,388 92,256,321 21,056 56,599,761 

VA-NC - 73,067,052 206,919,914 - 33,931,830 

NC-NEC - 1,636,920,062 79,650,206 - 106,903,201 

NC-VA - 81,037,070 92,175,052 - 36,072,433 

NC-NC - 3,763,935 226,372,275 - 51,458,417 

Total - 5,915,522,619 6,191,827,593 524,146,213 2,498,207,309 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-20 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-39: Year 2025 Main Street Average Common Carrier Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.1 106.2 166.7 139.3 

NEC-VA - 341.7 179.9 187.4 201.5 

NEC-NC - 497.5 460.8 - 465.9 

VA-NEC - 345.8 212.2 182.6 203.4 

VA-VA - 351.0 99.5 29.0 125.2 

VA-NC - 274.1 182.5 - 296.2 

NC-NEC - 506.1 363.7 - 464.1 

NC-VA - 280.2 193.0 - 286.1 

NC-NC - 122.1 111.9 - 114.8 

Total - 372.4 125.7 169.4 164.5 

Table 4-40: Year 2025 Main Street Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 380,919,628 $ 620,313,727 

NEC-VA $ 37,494,801 $ 138,230,971 

NEC-NC $ - $ 20,849,761 

VA-NEC $ 33,163,181 $ 125,077,186 

VA-VA $ 33,893 $ 17,924,592 

VA-NC $ - $ 8,701,118 

NC-NEC $ - $ 23,018,425 

NC-VA $ - $ 9,299,240 

NC-NC $ - $ 11,520,180 

Total $ 451,611,503 $ 974,935,201 

Table 4-41: Year 2025 Main Street Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

 Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.56 $ 61.15 

 NEC-VA $ 155.16 $ 76.58 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 97.67 

 VA-NEC $ 152.60 $ 75.52 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 39.65 

 VA-NC $ - $ 75.95 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 99.93 

 NC-VA $ - $ 73.75 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.69 

 Total $ 145.93 $ 64.18 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-21 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-42: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Full Annual Trips by Mode and 

Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 

170,203,914 

 

5,821,936 

 

38,896,441 

 

2,634,986 

 

10,144,838 

NEC-VA 28,422,318 1,698,843 2,555,344 241,659 1,813,394 

NEC-NC 4,877,124 2,697,847 1,053,992 - 210,718 

VA-NEC 26,588,204 1,769,407 1,977,625 217,267 1,665,988 

VA-VA 20,131,500 73,519 926,767 726 461,568 

VA-NC 12,736,277 266,612 1,133,803 - 115,375 

NC-NEC 5,108,264 3,233,692 218,853 - 234,054 

NC-VA 13,345,437 289,080 477,446 - 129,197 

NC-NC 25,528,457 30,822 2,023,384 - 448,657 

Total 306,941,496 15,881,758 49,263,655 3,094,638 15,223,788 

Table 4-43: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Full Annual Highway Miles 

(access/egress for common carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 26,468,968,742 256,109,805 1,944,745,593 94,584,192 404,223,753 

NEC-VA 6,816,563,989 79,674,112 120,100,209 11,082,086 75,269,052 

NEC-NC 2,514,109,327 142,929,122 54,347,367 - 7,084,428 

VA-NEC 6,321,998,563 80,706,177 96,059,886 9,688,000 66,926,202 

VA-VA 2,974,547,079 2,540,780 38,512,413 50,085 17,637,499 

VA-NC 2,752,668,032 13,463,828 61,728,267 - 4,413,764 

NC-NEC 2,563,143,674 426,076,113 13,499,634 - 7,410,517 

NC-VA 2,898,870,084 14,603,659 31,789,316 - 4,911,626 

NC-NC 3,948,831,073 2,107,285 122,239,895 - 17,715,751 

Total 57,259,700,562 1,018,210,882 2,483,022,580 115,404,362 605,592,592 

Table 4-44: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Full Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.5 44.0 50.0 35.9 39.8 

NEC-VA 239.8 46.9 47.0 45.9 41.5 

NEC-NC 515.5 53.0 51.6 - 33.6 

VA-NEC 237.8 45.6 48.6 44.6 40.2 

VA-VA 147.8 34.6 41.6 69.0 38.2 

VA-NC 216.1 50.5 54.4 - 38.3 

NC-NEC 501.8 131.8 61.7 - 31.7 

NC-VA 217.2 50.5 66.6 - 38.0 

NC-NC 154.7 68.4 60.4 - 39.5 

Total 186.5 64.1 50.4 37.3 39.8 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-22 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-45: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Full Annual Common Carrier 

Passenger Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 

- 

 

1,560,572,295 

 

4,129,276,813 

 

439,145,452 

 

1,413,218,994 

NEC-VA - 580,521,589 459,736,054 45,295,570 364,613,161 

NEC-NC - 1,341,982,961 485,656,687 - 98,209,253 

VA-NEC - 611,908,530 419,609,220 39,681,170 338,118,025 

VA-VA - 25,800,868 92,188,147 21,056 56,567,458 

VA-NC - 73,084,953 206,885,532 - 34,217,381 

NC-NEC - 1,636,462,412 79,584,254 - 108,721,168 

NC-VA - 80,999,737 92,139,646 - 37,198,751 

NC-NC - 3,763,942 226,374,809 - 51,406,822 

Total - 5,915,097,285 6,191,451,161 524,143,249 2,502,271,013 

Table 4-46: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Full Average Common Carrier 

Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Hwy Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.1 106.2 166.7 139.3 

NEC-VA - 341.7 179.9 187.4 201.1 

NEC-NC - 497.4 460.8 - 466.1 

VA-NEC - 345.8 212.2 182.6 203.0 

VA-VA - 350.9 99.5 29.0 122.6 

VA-NC - 274.1 182.5 - 296.6 

NC-NEC - 506.1 363.6 - 464.5 

NC-VA - 280.2 193.0 - 287.9 

NC-NC - 122.1 111.9 - 114.6 

Total - 372.4 125.7 169.4 164.4 

Table 4-47: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Full Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 380,918,777 $ 620,320,239 

NEC-VA $ 37,494,801 $ 138,872,397 

NEC-NC $ - $ 20,611,932 

VA-NEC $ 33,159,824 $ 125,826,163 

VA-VA $ 33,893 $ 18,124,981 

VA-NC $ - $ 8,188,875 

NC-NEC $ - $ 23,745,424 

NC-VA $ - $ 9,448,712 

NC-NC $ - $ 11,537,616 

Total $ 451,607,295 $ 976,676,339 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-23 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-48: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Full Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.56 $ 61.15 

 NEC-VA $ 155.16 $ 76.58 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 97.82 

 VA-NEC $ 152.62 $ 75.53 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 39.27 

 VA-NC $ - $ 70.98 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 101.45 

 NC-VA $ - $ 73.13 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.72 

 Total $ 145.93 $ 64.15 

Table 4-49: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Split Annual Trips by Mode and 

Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 

170,203,914 

 

5,821,936 

 

38,896,441 

 

2,634,986 

 

10,144,838 

NEC-VA 28,446,442 1,701,639 2,559,109 241,986 1,782,382 

NEC-NC 4,871,334 2,696,952 1,052,550 - 218,846 

VA-NEC 26,604,667 1,771,014 1,979,898 217,267 1,645,644 

VA-VA 20,152,827 73,399 928,368 726 438,762 

VA-NC 12,727,844 265,537 1,132,344 - 126,342 

NC-NEC 5,099,383 3,227,329 218,135 - 250,017 

NC-VA 13,339,466 288,299 477,304 - 136,091 

NC-NC 25,531,416 30,830 2,024,052 - 445,022 

Total 306,977,293 15,876,933 49,268,200 3,094,965 15,187,943 

Table 4-50: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Split Annual Highway Miles 

(access/egress for common carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 26,468,968,742 256,109,805 1,944,745,593 94,584,192 404,223,753 

NEC-VA 6,822,870,042 79,791,984 120,241,051 11,099,949 74,460,563 

NEC-NC 2,512,128,608 142,902,844 54,285,148 - 7,339,733 

VA-NEC 6,325,893,443 80,774,082 96,142,865 9,688,000 66,448,322 

VA-VA 2,976,991,420 2,537,348 38,572,947 50,085 16,795,119 

VA-NC 2,750,432,954 13,419,077 61,677,279 - 4,808,808 

NC-NEC 2,559,556,096 425,790,318 13,466,670 - 7,917,773 

NC-VA 2,897,322,595 14,570,211 31,784,422 - 5,180,099 

NC-NC 3,949,377,176 2,107,992 122,281,633 - 17,512,946 

Total 57,263,541,076 1,018,003,661 2,483,197,608 115,422,226 604,687,116 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-24 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-51: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Split Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 

155.5 

 

44.0 

 

50.0 

 

35.9 

 

39.8 

NEC-VA 239.8 46.9 47.0 45.9 41.8 

NEC-NC 515.7 53.0 51.6 - 33.5 

VA-NEC 237.8 45.6 48.6 44.6 40.4 

VA-VA 147.7 34.6 41.5 69.0 38.3 

VA-NC 216.1 50.5 54.5 - 38.1 

NC-NEC 501.9 131.9 61.7 - 31.7 

NC-VA 217.2 50.5 66.6 - 38.1 

NC-NC 154.7 68.4 60.4 - 39.4 

Total 186.5 64.1 50.4 37.3 39.8 

Table 4-52: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Split Annual Common Carrier 

Passenger Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 

- 

 

1,560,572,295 

 

4,129,276,813 

 

439,145,452 

 

1,413,218,994 

NEC-VA - 581,334,380 460,664,545 45,345,593 356,583,515 

NEC-NC - 1,341,742,798 485,164,912 - 100,843,602 

VA-NEC - 612,388,540 420,137,195 39,681,170 333,290,249 

VA-VA - 25,782,944 92,356,160 21,056 54,331,338 

VA-NC - 72,803,092 206,516,148 - 37,947,173 

NC-NEC - 1,633,831,886 79,348,250 - 115,950,274 

NC-VA - 80,786,364 92,083,951 - 39,036,479 

NC-NC - 3,764,977 226,464,348 - 51,009,220 

Total - 5,913,007,276 6,192,012,322 524,193,272 2,502,210,843 

Table 4-53: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Split Average Common Carrier 

Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.1 106.2 166.7 139.3 

NEC-VA - 341.6 180.0 187.4 200.1 

NEC-NC - 497.5 460.9 - 460.8 

VA-NEC - 345.8 212.2 182.6 202.5 

VA-VA - 351.3 99.5 29.0 123.8 

VA-NC - 274.2 182.4 - 300.4 

NC-NEC - 506.2 363.8 - 463.8 

NC-VA - 280.2 192.9 - 286.8 

NC-NC - 122.1 111.9 - 114.6 

Total - 372.4 125.7 169.4 164.7 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-25 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-54: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Split Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 380,918,777 $ 620,320,239 

NEC-VA $ 37,539,104 $ 136,350,092 

NEC-NC $ - $ 21,234,356 

VA-NEC $ 33,159,824 $ 124,400,425 

VA-VA $ 33,893 $ 17,216,492 

VA-NC $ - $ 8,048,078 

NC-NEC $ - $ 25,246,949 

NC-VA $ - $ 8,601,779 

NC-NC $ - $ 11,467,434 

Total $ 451,651,598 $ 972,885,842 

Table 4-55: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Split Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.56 $ 61.15 

 NEC-VA $ 155.13 $ 76.50 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 97.03 

 VA-NEC $ 152.62 $ 75.59 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 39.24 

 VA-NC $ - $ 63.70 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 100.98 

 NC-VA $ - $ 63.21 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.77 

 Total $ 145.93 $ 64.06 

Table 4-56: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Share Annual Trips by Mode and 

Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 170,203,914 5,821,936 38,896,441 2,634,986 10,144,838 

NEC-VA 28,425,047 1,699,198 2,555,695 241,659 1,809,959 

NEC-NC 4,873,191 2,697,183 1,052,916 - 216,392 

VA-NEC 26,591,713 1,769,789 1,978,092 217,267 1,661,628 

VA-VA 20,134,890 73,520 927,053 726 457,892 

VA-NC 12,734,908 266,293 1,133,562 - 117,304 

NC-NEC 5,104,238 3,232,961 218,640 - 239,025 

NC-VA 13,343,608 288,903 477,453 - 131,196 

NC-NC 25,528,848 30,815 2,023,451 - 448,206 

Total 306,940,356 15,880,597 49,263,303 3,094,638 15,226,441 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-26 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-57: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Share Annual Highway Miles 

(access/egress for common carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 26,468,968,742 256,109,805 1,944,745,593 94,584,192 404,223,753 

NEC-VA 6,817,270,267 79,687,006 120,110,705 11,082,086 75,348,282 

NEC-NC 2,512,650,197 142,890,124 54,292,875 - 7,272,414 

VA-NEC 6,322,832,055 80,720,410 96,074,682 9,688,000 66,951,628 

VA-VA 2,974,958,623 2,540,809 38,523,413 50,085 17,591,880 

VA-NC 2,752,316,936 13,450,943 61,717,162 - 4,497,787 

NC-NEC 2,561,487,161 426,033,826 13,490,889 - 7,579,552 

NC-VA 2,898,317,092 14,594,598 31,787,964 - 4,984,185 

NC-NC 3,948,858,090 2,106,780 122,244,136 - 17,732,632 

Total 57,257,659,163 1,018,134,300 2,482,987,419 115,404,362 606,182,113 

Table 4-58: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Share Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.5 44.0 50.0 35.9 39.8 

NEC-VA 239.8 46.9 47.0 45.9 41.6 

NEC-NC 515.6 53.0 51.6 - 33.6 

VA-NEC 237.8 45.6 48.6 44.6 40.3 

VA-VA 147.8 34.6 41.6 69.0 38.4 

VA-NC 216.1 50.5 54.4 - 38.3 

NC-NEC 501.8 131.8 61.7 - 31.7 

NC-VA 217.2 50.5 66.6 - 38.0 

NC-NC 154.7 68.4 60.4 - 39.6 

Total 186.5 64.1 50.4 37.3 39.8 

Table 4-59: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Share Annual Common Carrier 

Passenger Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 

- 

 

1,560,572,295 

 

4,129,276,813 

 

439,145,452 

 

1,413,218,994 

NEC-VA - 580,620,533 459,823,791 45,295,570 363,528,828 

NEC-NC - 1,341,706,132 485,231,508 - 100,231,852 

VA-NEC - 612,015,328 419,720,683 39,681,170 336,893,397 

VA-VA - 25,800,916 92,218,405 21,056 56,053,665 

VA-NC - 73,012,473 206,822,131 - 34,687,527 

NC-NEC - 1,636,073,241 79,495,672 - 110,761,861 

NC-VA - 80,952,436 92,130,032 - 37,454,254 

NC-NC - 3,763,079 226,383,771 - 51,336,575 

Total - 5,914,516,433 6,191,102,806 524,143,249 2,504,166,953 
YEAR 2025 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-27 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 4-60: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Share Average Common Carrier 

Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.1 106.2 166.7 139.3 

NEC-VA - 341.7 179.9 187.4 200.8 

NEC-NC - 497.4 460.8 - 463.2 

VA-NEC - 345.8 212.2 182.6 202.7 

VA-VA - 350.9 99.5 29.0 122.4 

VA-NC - 274.2 182.5 - 295.7 

NC-NEC - 506.1 363.6 - 463.4 

NC-VA - 280.2 193.0 - 285.5 

NC-NC - 122.1 111.9 - 114.5 

Total - 372.4 125.7 169.4 164.5 

Table 4-61: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Share Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 380,918,777 $ 620,320,239 

NEC-VA $ 37,494,801 $ 138,610,943 

NEC-NC $ - $ 21,018,484 

VA-NEC $ 33,159,824 $ 125,492,684 

VA-VA $ 33,893 $ 17,977,604 

VA-NC $ - $ 7,905,351 

NC-NEC $ - $ 24,139,667 

NC-VA $ - $ 8,831,210 

NC-NC $ - $ 11,524,917 

Total $ 451,607,295 $ 975,821,099 

Table 4-62: Year 2025 Staples Mill and Main St Share Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

 Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ - $ - $ - $ 144.56 $ 61.15 

 NEC-VA $ - $ - $ - $ 155.16 $ 76.58 

 NEC-NC $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 97.13 

 VA-NEC $ - $ - $ - $ 152.62 $ 75.52 

 VA-VA $ - $ - $ - $ 46.68 $ 39.26 

 VA-NC $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 67.39 

 NC-NEC $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 100.99 

 NC-VA $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 67.31 

 NC-NC $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 25.71 

 Total $ - $ - $ - $ 145.93 $ 64.09 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-1 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

This section presents DC2RVA ridership projections for the 2045 Forecast Year. 

5.1 OVERVIEW 

Table 5-1 presents an overview of the DC2RVA ridership forecast results for 2045. Two statistics 

are presented: 

• Annual rail ridership to, from, and through the DC2RVA corridor. This number includes 

all trips beginning or ending at any station in the corridor between Alexandria, Richmond, 

Newport News, Petersburg, and Norfolk. The number also includes all modeled rail 

travel between North Carolina and the Northeast Corridor who are also beneficiaries of 

the Project. This number does not include passengers on longer-distance trips (South 

Carolina, Georgia and Florida) since these markets are not part of the modeling region. 

An estimate of long-distance station boardings to and from corridor stations is presented 

later in this section. 

• Annual rail ridership (boardings+alightings) at any of the stations located in Richmond, 

Virginia. This statistic demonstrates the effectiveness of each of the Richmond station 

options to serve the Richmond area. 

The overview table shows that corridor ridership was approximately 1.4 million in 2015 and will 

grow to 2.2 million annual riders with the 2045 No Build. This change is due to a modest service 

improvement associated with the No Build Alternative and to demographic growth between 2015 

and 2045. 

Each of the Build Alternatives attracts approximately 3.2 million annual corridor riders. This 

increase is a result of significant improvements to train frequency, travel time, and on-time 

performance. The different station options generate similar levels of overall ridership. 

5.2 YEAR 2045 ANNUAL STATION RIDERSHIP 

Table 5-2 presents annual station usage (sum of station boardings and alightings) for each station 

in the Project corridor for each alternative. 

5.3 YEAR 2045 ANNUAL MARKET-LEVEL RIDERSHIP 

Table 5-3 presents annual rail ridership occurring for different geographic markets in the 

modeling area. These markets are defined as follows: 

5 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-2 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

• Intra-Project Corridor: trips occurring entirely within the Project corridor defined as 

including Alexandria, Richmond, Petersburg, Newport News, and Norfolk and all 

intermediate stations. 

• Project Corridor-NEC: trips occurring between the Project corridor and Amtrak’s 

Northeast Corridor between Washington and Boston (inclusive). 

• Project Corridor-NC: trips occurring between the Project corridor and stations in North 

Carolina. 

• NC-NEC: trips occurring between North Carolina and the Northeast Corridor. 

• Other VA-Project Corridor: trips occurring between other parts of Virginia (i.e., along the 

route of the Crescent or Cardinal) and the Project corridor. 

• Other VA-NEC: trips occurring between other parts of Virginia and the Northeast 

Corridor. 

• Other VA-NC: trips occurring between other parts of Virginia and North Carolina. 

• NEC-NEC: trips occurring between stations located along the Northeast Corridor. 

• NC-NC: trips occurring between stations located in North Carolina. 

• Other VA-Other VA: trips occurring between stations located in other parts of Virginia. 

This table also includes two subtotals and one table total, defined as follows: 

• Subtotal To/From/Through Corridor: This subtotal includes all trips classified as 

o Intra-Project Corridor 

o Project Corridor-NEC 

o Project Corridor-NC 

o NC-NEC 

o OtherVA-Project Corridor 

o OtherVA-NEC 

•

• Subtotal Other Trips: Any trip not included in the previous subtotal. 

• Total Modeled Trips: All trips in the table. 

5.4 YEAR 2045 STATION RIDERSHIP BY TRAIN TYPE 

This section presents annual station usage (sum of station boardings and alightings) for each 

station stratified by the type of trip. This information is used in the station planning process to 

determine the parking requirements. The following information is provided: 

• Table 5-4 presents regional rail ridership for travel between corridor stations and a station 

located along the Northeast Corridor or in North Carolina. This category does not include 

trips within the corridor or between the corridor and Washington, D.C. 

• Table 5-5 presents ridership for that subset of travel occurring within the corridor or 

between the corridor and Washington, D.C. 

• Table 5-6 presents an estimate of passengers boarding long-distance trains which are the 

difference between total ridership at each station and the modeled ridership. 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-3 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-1: Overview of Year 2015 and 2045 Annual Corridor Ridership by Alternative 

Market 

Year 

2015 

Existing 

Schedule 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 No 

Build 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill Only 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Boulevard 

90% OTP 

Year 

2045 

Broad 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Main 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Full 90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Split 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Shared 

90% 

OTP 

Annual Rail Trips 

To/From/Through 

Corridor (millions) 

1.388 2.180 3.295 3.203 3.160 3.213 3.258 3.218 3.261 

Annual 

Boardings+Alightings 

at Richmond 

Stations (thousands) 

398 604 949 925 897 948 1,037 920 1,013 

Table 5-2: Year 2015 and 2045 Annual Ridership (Boardings+Alightings) by Station and 

Alternative 

Station Year 

2015 

Existing 

Schedule 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 No 

Build 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill Only 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Boulevar

d 90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Broad 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Main 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Full 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Split 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Shared 

90% 

OTP 

Petersburg, VA 27,265 43,776 73,633 63,478 64,773 43,908 46,169 64,505 50,523 

Norfolk, VA 40,028 118,780 221,057 191,802 194,221 190,838 191,518 222,352 194,552 

Newport News, VA 123,798 151,317 223,256 230,585 208,462 232,075 228,843 210,103 228,320 

Williamsburg, VA 51,017 74,980 107,445 111,203 103,321 108,871 106,853 102,755 106,669 

Richmond, VA Main 46,849 66,732 - - - 948,482 474,840 136,534 326,531 

Richmond, VA 

Boulevard/Broad 

- - - 925,389 896,660 - - - - 

Richmond, VA 

Staples Mill 

351,156 537,037 949,423 - - - 562,183 783,665 686,959 

Ashland, VA 28,013 44,860 65,126 69,701 74,138 76,932 60,460 62,787 60,815 

Fredericksburg, VA 127,535 220,621 398,177 408,343 408,435 411,690 395,219 393,903 394,860 

Quantico, VA 34,754 50,182 59,676 59,140 58,255 59,293 59,538 59,787 59,943 

Woodbridge, VA 23,836 38,843 104,261 103,657 102,144 103,712 104,602 103,549 105,166 

Alexandria, VA 174,238 268,873 303,021 295,091 291,024 295,330 299,015 299,345 302,017 

Total 1,028,488 1,616,001 2,505,074 2,458,388 2,401,432 2,471,131 2,529,241 2,439,285 2,516,354 

 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-4 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-3: Year 2015 and 2045 Annual Ridership by Market and Alternative 

Market 

Year 

2015 

Existing 

Schedule 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 No 

Build 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill Only 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Boulevard 

90% OTP 

Year 

2045 

Broad 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Main 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Full 90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Split 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Shared 

90% 

OTP 

Intra-Project 

Corridor 

121,605 198,860 285,444 283,094 272,762 287,563 295,061 284,088 293,321 

Project CorridorNEC 698,092 1,069,490 1,652,325 1,632,439 1,592,060 1,630,454 1,669,947 1,586,159 1,657,156 

Project CorridorNC 64,363 107,456 246,886 224,300 228,639 229,037 233,845 250,480 237,189 

NC-NEC 262,862 371,753 696,878 649,329 652,521 643,566 645,699 683,678 659,597 

OtherVA-Project 

Corridor 

22,822 41,335 44,695 44,754 44,567 45,862 44,742 44,644 44,735 

OtherVA-NEC 217,852 390,904 368,571 369,462 369,495 376,743 368,754 368,676 368,754 

Subtotal 

To/From/Through 

Corridor 

1,387,596 2,179,798 3,294,799 3,203,378 3,160,045 3,213,225 3,258,049 3,217,725 3,260,751 

OtherVA-NC 6,912 9,929 10,523 10,566 10,492 10,580 10,396 10,368 10,493 

NEC-NEC 10,598,458 13,864,873 13,857,435 13,857,435 13,857,435 13,856,545 13,857,435 13,859,193 13,857,435 

NC-NC 263,335 558,635 641,611 642,780 643,258 642,073 642,654 637,959 642,304 

OtherVA-OtherVA 5,194 18,713 15,448 15,458 15,460 15,473 15,450 15,446 15,451 

Subtotal Other 

Trips 

10,873,899 14,452,150 14,525,017 14,526,239 14,526,645 14,524,672 14,525,936 14,522,966 14,525,682 

Total Modeled Trips 12,261,495 16,631,948 17,819,816 17,729,617 17,686,690 17,737,897 17,783,985 17,740,691 17,786,433 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-5 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-4: Year 2015 and 2045 Annual Regional Train Ridership (Boardings+Alightings) by 

Station and Alternative 

Station Year 

2015 

Existing 

Schedule 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 No 

Build 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill Only 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Boulevard 

90% OTP 

Year 

2045 

Broad 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Main 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Full 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Split 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Shared 

90% 

OTP 

Petersburg, VA 17,010 26,767 48,020 41,934 42,433 29,556 31,543 42,207 35,017 

Norfolk, VA 16,741 62,649 105,765 86,219 87,208 85,504 87,098 109,033 90,310 

Newport News, VA 61,583 70,202 107,369 110,446 99,589 110,870 109,534 99,303 109,117 

Williamsburg, VA 22,308 30,346 45,804 46,673 43,209 45,583 44,777 42,414 44,755 

Richmond, VA Main 17,940 24,687 - - - 452,885 240,101 57,796 159,841 

Richmond, VA 

Boulevard/Broad 

- - - 439,875 427,037 - - - - 

Richmond, VA 

Staples Mill 

178,794 260,363 454,685 - - - 256,306 382,231 323,364 

Ashland, VA 20,259 30,564 41,659 45,803 50,878 51,508 41,684 42,205 41,726 

Fredericksburg, VA 102,721 172,774 294,348 302,410 303,168 303,427 292,154 290,043 291,763 

Quantico, VA 21,403 28,961 36,942 36,719 36,710 36,513 36,669 37,116 37,133 

Woodbridge, VA 15,880 26,672 60,588 60,316 60,260 59,858 60,242 61,240 60,808 

Alexandria, VA 81,809 126,766 139,656 134,841 135,109 136,356 134,234 138,402 138,091 

Total 

 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-6 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-5: Year 2015 and 2045 Annual Virginia/DC Train Ridership (Boardings+Alightings) 

by Station and Alternative 

Station Year 

2015 

Existing 

Schedule 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 No 

Build 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill Only 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Boulevard 

90% OTP 

Year 

2045 

Broad 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Main 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Full 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Split 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Shared 

90% 

OTP 

Petersburg, VA 10,254 17,009 25,613 21,544 22,340 14,352 14,627 22,299 15,506 

Norfolk, VA 23,287 56,131 115,292 105,583 107,013 105,334 104,421 113,319 104,242 

Newport News, VA 62,214 81,115 115,887 120,139 108,873 121,205 119,309 110,801 119,203 

Williamsburg, VA 28,710 44,634 61,641 64,530 60,112 63,287 62,076 60,341 61,914 

Richmond, VA Main 28,909 42,045 - - - 495,597 234,739 78,738 166,690 

Richmond, VA 

Boulevard/Broad 

- - - 485,514 469,624 - - - - 

Richmond, VA 

Staples Mill 

172,362 276,675 494,737 - - - 305,876 401,434 363,594 

Ashland, VA 7,754 14,296 23,467 23,898 23,259 25,424 18,776 20,582 19,089 

Fredericksburg, VA 24,814 47,847 103,829 105,934 105,267 108,263 103,065 103,860 103,097 

Quantico, VA 13,351 21,220 22,734 22,420 21,545 22,780 22,869 22,670 22,810 

Woodbridge, VA 7,956 12,172 43,673 43,342 41,884 43,854 44,360 42,310 44,358 

Alexandria, VA 92,429 142,107 163,365 160,250 155,915 158,974 164,780 160,942 163,926 

Total 472,040 755,249 1,170,239 1,153,154 1,115,833 1,159,070 1,194,898 1,137,295 1,184,429 

 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-7 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-6: Year 2015 and 2045 Annual Intercity Train Ridership (Boardings+Alightings) by 

Station and Alternative

Station Year 

2015 

Existing 

Schedule 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 No 

Build 

66% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill Only 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Boulevard 

90% OTP 

Year 

2045 

Broad 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Main 

Street 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Full 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Split 

90% 

OTP 

Year 

2045 

Staples 

Mill & 

Main 

Street 

Shared 

90% 

OTP 

Petersburg, VA 4,226 5,669 5,669 5,669 5,669 5,669 5,669 5,669 5,669 

Norfolk, VA - - - - - - - - - 

Newport News, VA - - - - - - - - - 

Williamsburg, VA 199 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 

Richmond, VA Main - - - - - 41,103 - - - 

Richmond, VA 

Boulevard/Broad 

- - - 41,103 41,103 - - - - 

Richmond, VA 

Staples Mill 

27,214 41,103 41,103 - - - 41,103 41,103 41,103 

Ashland, VA - - - - - - - - - 

Fredericksburg, VA - - - - - - - - - 

Quantico, VA - - - - - - - - - 

Woodbridge, VA - - - - - - - - - 

Alexandria, VA 15,671 23,766 23,766 23,766 23,766 23,766 23,766 23,766 23,766 

Total 47,310 70,834 70,834 70,834 70,834 70,834 70,834 70,834 70,834 

 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-8 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

5.5 YEAR 2045 OTHER RIDERSHIP-RELATED STATISTICS 

This section presents detailed ridership-related statistics for each alternative. These statistics are 

presented in Tables 5-7 through 5-62 and are organized so that the first set of seven tables (5-7 to 

5-13) describe outcomes associated with the No Build Alternative followed by the tables for each 

Build Alternative in the order defined in Chapter 3. 

The information provided in these tables are: 

• Annual trips by mode and geographic market. Modes are defined as highway, air, bus, 

high-speed rail (HSR, meaning Acela), and regional rail. All existing and proposed future 

service in the DC2RVA corridor is categorized as regional rail. Geographic markets 

include: 

o NEC-NEC: internal to the Northeast Corridor (Washington, D.C. and north) 

o NEC-VA: home in the NEC, non-home trip-end in Virginia 

o NEC-NC: home in the NEC, non-home trip-end in North Carolina 

o VA-NEC: home in Virginia, non-home trip-end in the NEC 

o VA-VA: internal to Virginia 

o VA-NC: home Virginia, non-home trip-end in North Carolina 

o NC-NEC: home in North Carolina, non-home trip-end in the NEC 

o NC-VA: home in North Carolina, non-home trip-end in Virginia 

o NC-NC: internal to North Carolina 

• Annual highway miles by mode and geographic market. The modes and geographic 

markets are the same as described above. This statistic presents the number of highway 

person-miles of travel accrued for each mode on an annual basis. For highway trips, this 

statistic includes the entire trip from origin to destination. For common carrier modes, 

this statistic includes just the access and egress portion of the trip. Since the DC2RVA 

model does not estimate mode-of-access, this statistic is computed with the assumption 

that all access/egress travel is made by automobile so that this statistic and the related 

environmental impacts are not underestimated. 

• Average highway miles per trip by mode and geographic market. This statistic is 

calculated by dividing highway miles by the number of trips and is useful in assessing the 

reasonableness of each estimate. 

• Annual common carrier passenger miles by mode and geographic market. The modes 

and geographic markets are the same as described above. This statistic presents the 

number of common carrier person-miles of travel accrued for each mode on an annual 

basis. For highway trips, this statistic is always equal to zero. For common carrier modes, 

this statistic includes just the travel between the origin station and the destination station. 

• Average common carrier passengers miles per trip by mode and geographic market. This 

statistic is calculated by dividing the common carrier passenger miles by the number of 

trips and is useful in assessing the reasonableness of each estimate. 

• Annual rail revenue by mode and geographic market. The modes and geographic 

markets are the same as described above. This statistic presents the rail revenue (in 

constant 2015 year dollars) for the rail modes. 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-9 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

• Average rail revenue per trip by mode and geographic market. This statistic is calculated 

by dividing the rail revenue by the number of trips and is useful in assessing the 

reasonableness of each estimate. 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-10 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-7: Year 2045 No Build Annual Trips by Mode and Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 186,946,056 6,506,060 42,684,110 2,922,468 11,383,878 

NEC-VA 34,466,771 2,048,243 3,156,636 300,209 1,973,707 

NEC-NC 6,002,363 3,464,088 1,317,540 - 150,018 

VA-NEC 32,284,600 2,126,551 2,447,616 270,889 1,797,344 

VA-VA 26,260,963 94,049 1,232,172 948 426,547 

VA-NC 16,778,336 375,599 1,533,542 - 72,883 

NC-NEC 6,281,403 4,133,688 286,870 - 180,769 

NC-VA 17,576,521 404,793 661,858 - 92,957 

NC-NC 34,059,294 41,903 2,787,898 - 553,845 

Total 360,656,307 19,194,972 56,108,243 3,494,514 16,631,948 

Table 5-8: Year 2045 No Build Annual Highway Miles (access/egress for common carrier 

modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 29,129,687,269 284,822,714 2,129,660,302 104,423,386 453,577,961 

NEC-VA 8,187,983,302 96,127,668 148,809,091 14,027,995 84,764,120 

NEC-NC 3,065,349,563 180,768,921 66,616,899 - 5,522,166 

VA-NEC 7,604,927,735 97,139,445 119,046,719 12,331,441 75,727,592 

VA-VA 3,856,309,083 3,309,651 51,597,313 65,357 16,808,790 

VA-NC 3,629,907,290 18,739,348 82,816,132 - 3,165,154 

NC-NEC 3,123,030,236 523,964,335 17,395,791 - 6,217,219 

NC-VA 3,823,412,040 20,222,386 43,793,566 - 3,987,845 

NC-NC 5,262,949,198 2,823,721 165,307,466 - 21,360,155 

Total 67,683,555,716 1,227,918,189 2,825,043,279 130,848,179 671,131,003 

Table 5-9: Year 2045 No Build Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.8 43.8 49.9 35.7 39.8 

NEC-VA 237.6 46.9 47.1 46.7 42.9 

NEC-NC 510.7 52.2 50.6 - 36.8 

VA-NEC 235.6 45.7 48.6 45.5 42.1 

VA-VA 146.8 35.2 41.9 69.0 39.4 

VA-NC 216.3 49.9 54.0 - 43.4 

NC-NEC 497.2 126.8 60.6 - 34.4 

NC-VA 217.5 50.0 66.2 - 42.9 

NC-NC 154.5 67.4 59.3 - 38.6 

Total 187.7 64.0 50.3 37.4 40.4 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-11 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-10: Year 2045 No Build Annual Common Carrier Passenger Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 1,749,227,532 4,541,901,698 488,381,270 1,594,127,820 

NEC-VA - 696,271,309 564,036,702 55,638,212 387,435,587 

NEC-NC - 1,710,117,208 604,167,844 - 66,381,472 

VA-NEC - 731,656,541 515,415,931 48,781,854 356,319,721 

VA-VA - 32,368,540 122,449,942 27,485 51,442,832 

VA-NC - 102,567,478 282,945,122 - 19,599,061 

NC-NEC - 2,074,757,522 102,406,726 - 82,407,659 

NC-VA - 113,089,692 128,436,468 - 25,950,020 

NC-NC - 5,103,692 314,739,365 - 64,381,088 

Total - 7,215,159,514 7,176,499,798 592,828,821 2,648,045,260 

Table 5-11: Year 2045 No Build Average Common Carrier Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.9 106.4 167.1 140.0 

NEC-VA - 339.9 178.7 185.3 196.3 

NEC-NC - 493.7 458.6 - 442.5 

VA-NEC - 344.1 210.6 180.1 198.2 

VA-VA - 344.2 99.4 29.0 120.6 

VA-NC - 273.1 184.5 - 268.9 

NC-NEC - 501.9 357.0 - 455.9 

NC-VA - 279.4 194.1 - 279.2 

NC-NC - 121.8 112.9 - 116.2 

Total - 375.9 127.9 169.6 159.2 

Table 5-12: Year 2045 No Build Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 423,251,160 $ 699,080,464 

NEC-VA $ 46,183,968 $ 150,215,017 

NEC-NC $ - $ 14,207,934 

VA-NEC $ 40,898,523 $ 135,499,005 

VA-VA $ 44,242 $ 16,902,132 

VA-NC $ - $ 4,304,516 

NC-NEC $ - $ 17,300,155 

NC-VA $ - $ 5,602,171 

NC-NC $ - $ 14,365,995 

Total $ 510,377,892 $ 1,057,477,389 

 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-12 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

 Table 5-13: Year 2045 No Build Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.83 $ 61.41 

 NEC-VA $ 153.84 $ 76.11 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 94.71 

 VA-NEC $ 150.98 $ 75.39 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 39.63 

 VA-NC $ - $ 59.06 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 95.70 

 NC-VA $ - $ 60.27 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.94 

 Total $ 146.05 $ 63.58 

Table 5-14: Year 2045 Staples Mill Annual Trips by Mode and Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 186,946,004 6,506,060 42,684,110 2,922,465 11,383,932 

NEC-VA 34,292,817 2,030,672 3,122,528 290,831 2,208,717 

NEC-NC 5,945,359 3,401,520 1,296,546 - 290,584 

VA-NEC 32,106,149 2,109,916 2,418,639 262,343 2,029,951 

VA-VA 26,101,830 93,331 1,220,328 923 598,267 

VA-NC 16,704,179 365,422 1,520,951 - 169,808 

NC-NEC 6,223,284 4,064,308 279,209 - 315,929 

NC-VA 17,499,265 395,868 655,636 - 185,360 

NC-NC 33,987,927 41,689 2,776,057 - 637,267 

Total 359,806,814 19,008,786 55,974,004 3,476,563 17,819,816 

Table 5-15: Year 2045 Staples Mill Annual Highway Miles (access/egress for common 

carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 29,129,686,630 284,822,714 2,129,660,302 104,423,280 453,574,192 

NEC-VA 8,148,429,699 95,313,177 147,273,584 13,417,935 92,259,928 

NEC-NC 3,042,675,706 178,083,225 65,958,236 - 9,608,802 

VA-NEC 7,565,502,552 96,369,211 117,871,198 11,780,862 82,263,105 

VA-VA 3,834,946,242 3,288,201 51,151,335 63,459 23,002,525 

VA-NC 3,610,678,093 18,325,685 82,373,627 - 6,458,192 

NC-NEC 3,100,278,317 521,073,391 17,040,201 - 9,864,474 

NC-VA 3,804,174,875 19,854,246 43,474,789 - 7,031,560 

NC-NC 5,252,833,081 2,811,888 164,774,601 - 24,697,463 

Total 67,489,205,195 1,219,941,739 2,819,577,873 129,685,536 708,760,241 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-13 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-16: Year 2045 Staples Mill Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.8 43.8 49.9 35.7 39.8 

NEC-VA 237.6 46.9 47.2 46.1 41.8 

NEC-NC 511.8 52.4 50.9 - 33.1 

VA-NEC 235.6 45.7 48.7 44.9 40.5 

VA-VA 146.9 35.2 41.9 68.8 38.4 

VA-NC 216.2 50.1 54.2 - 38.0 

NC-NEC 498.2 128.2 61.0 - 31.2 

NC-VA 217.4 50.2 66.3 - 37.9 

NC-NC 154.5 67.4 59.4 - 38.8 

Total 187.6 64.2 50.4 37.3 39.8 

Table 5-17: Year 2045 Staples Mill Annual Common Carrier Passenger Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 1,749,227,532 4,541,901,698 488,381,193 1,594,128,252 

NEC-VA - 691,376,556 556,701,499 54,232,758 440,216,869 

NEC-NC - 1,684,753,555 595,204,247 - 134,850,444 

VA-NEC - 727,009,931 509,117,382 47,681,983 407,494,489 

VA-VA - 32,262,215 121,064,720 26,762 73,892,204 

VA-NC - 99,954,755 279,742,959 - 50,883,377 

NC-NEC - 2,046,809,440 100,111,356 - 146,089,467 

NC-VA - 110,755,537 126,911,150 - 53,458,644 

NC-NC - 5,076,889 313,316,941 - 74,194,753 

Total - 7,147,226,410 7,144,071,953 590,322,696 2,975,208,500 

Table 5-18: Year 2045 Staples Mill Average Common Carrier Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.9 106.4 167.1 140.0 

NEC-VA - 340.5 178.3 186.5 199.3 

NEC-NC - 495.3 459.1 - 464.1 

VA-NEC - 344.6 210.5 181.8 200.7 

VA-VA - 345.7 99.2 29.0 123.5 

VA-NC - 273.5 183.9 - 299.7 

NC-NEC - 503.6 358.6 - 462.4 

NC-VA - 279.8 193.6 - 288.4 

NC-NC - 121.8 112.9 - 116.4 

Total - 376.0 127.6 169.8 167.0 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-14 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-19: Year 2045 Staples Mill Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 423,251,035 $ 699,084,674 

NEC-VA $ 44,959,225 $ 167,908,485 

NEC-NC $ - $ 28,232,342 

VA-NEC $ 39,900,105 $ 152,066,339 

VA-VA $ 43,077 $ 23,445,805 

VA-NC $ - $ 10,741,067 

NC-NEC $ - $ 31,740,140 

NC-VA $ - $ 11,724,111 

NC-NC $ - $ 16,492,660 

Total $ 508,153,443 $ 1,141,435,624 

 

 Table 5-20: Year 2045 Staples Mill Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ - $ - $ - $ 144.83 $ 61.41 

 NEC-VA $ - $ - $ - $ 154.59 $ 76.02 

 NEC-NC $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 97.16 

 VA-NEC $ - $ - $ - $ 152.09 $ 74.91 

 VA-VA $ - $ - $ - $ 46.68 $ 39.19 

 VA-NC $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 63.25 

 NC-NEC $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 100.47 

 NC-VA $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 63.25 

 NC-NC $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 25.88 

 Total $ - $ - $ - $ 146.17 $ 64.05 

Table 5-21: Year 2045 Boulevard Annual Trips by Mode and Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 186,946,004 6,506,060 42,684,110 2,922,465 11,383,932 

NEC-VA 34,297,719 2,031,000 3,122,849 290,831 2,203,166 

NEC-NC 5,954,123 3,408,345 1,299,391 - 272,150 

VA-NEC 32,113,270 2,110,487 2,419,238 262,343 2,021,660 

VA-VA 26,108,730 93,471 1,220,878 923 590,677 

VA-NC 16,714,206 366,604 1,522,667 - 156,883 

NC-NEC 6,235,033 4,073,930 280,262 - 293,505 

NC-VA 17,513,087 397,278 656,192 - 169,572 

NC-NC 33,987,211 41,697 2,775,959 - 638,072 

Total 359,869,384 19,028,872 55,981,547 3,476,563 17,729,617 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-15 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-22: Year 2045 Boulevard Annual Highway Miles (access/egress for common 

carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 29,129,686,630 284,822,714 2,129,660,302 104,423,280 453,574,192 

NEC-VA 8,149,623,072 95,326,537 147,274,645 13,417,935 91,658,451 

NEC-NC 3,046,132,453 178,389,195 66,065,408 - 8,992,264 

VA-NEC 7,567,180,666 96,389,559 117,876,449 11,780,862 81,511,477 

VA-VA 3,836,097,809 3,292,417 51,166,967 63,459 22,427,607 

VA-NC 3,613,249,411 18,375,210 82,426,681 - 5,854,202 

NC-NEC 3,105,054,698 521,496,806 17,088,637 - 9,170,466 

NC-VA 3,807,590,183 19,913,571 43,503,314 - 6,390,937 

NC-NC 5,252,774,215 2,812,502 164,768,032 - 24,702,893 

Total 67,507,389,137 1,220,818,511 2,819,830,434 129,685,536 704,282,489 

Table 5-23: Year 2045 Boulevard Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.8 43.8 49.9 35.7 39.8 

NEC-VA 237.6 46.9 47.2 46.1 41.6 

NEC-NC 511.6 52.3 50.8 - 33.0 

VA-NEC 235.6 45.7 48.7 44.9 40.3 

VA-VA 146.9 35.2 41.9 68.8 38.0 

VA-NC 216.2 50.1 54.1 - 37.3 

NC-NEC 498.0 128.0 61.0 - 31.2 

NC-VA 217.4 50.1 66.3 - 37.7 

NC-NC 154.6 67.5 59.4 - 38.7 

Total 187.6 64.2 50.4 37.3 39.7 

Table 5-24: Year 2045 Boulevard Annual Common Carrier Passenger Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 1,749,227,532 4,541,901,698 488,381,193 1,594,128,252 

NEC-VA - 691,464,005 556,766,613 54,232,758 439,911,785 

NEC-NC - 1,687,522,506 596,407,774 - 126,380,704 

VA-NEC - 727,150,130 509,240,313 47,681,983 406,609,447 

VA-VA - 32,282,991 121,138,903 26,762 73,454,116 

VA-NC - 100,261,613 280,179,521 - 46,747,676 

NC-NEC - 2,050,747,242 100,447,941 - 135,717,837 

NC-VA - 111,141,291 127,063,672 - 48,721,378 

NC-NC - 5,077,939 313,303,252 - 74,291,712 

Total - 7,154,875,251 7,146,449,686 590,322,696 2,945,962,908 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-16 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-25: Year 2045 Boulevard Average Common Carrier Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.9 106.4 167.1 140.0 

NEC-VA - 340.5 178.3 186.5 199.7 

NEC-NC - 495.1 459.0 - 464.4 

VA-NEC - 344.5 210.5 181.8 201.1 

VA-VA - 345.4 99.2 29.0 124.4 

VA-NC - 273.5 184.0 - 298.0 

NC-NEC - 503.4 358.4 - 462.4 

NC-VA - 279.8 193.6 - 287.3 

NC-NC - 121.8 112.9 - 116.4 

Total - 376.0 127.7 169.8 166.2 

Table 5-26: Year 2045 Boulevard Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 423,251,035 $ 699,084,674 

NEC-VA $ 44,959,225 $ 169,439,506 

NEC-NC $ - $ 26,484,492 

VA-NEC $ 39,900,105 $ 153,849,804 

VA-VA $ 43,077 $ 27,374,139 

VA-NC $ - $ 11,887,700 

NC-NEC $ - $ 29,448,004 

NC-VA $ - $ 12,178,197 

NC-NC $ - $ 16,512,021 

Total $ 508,153,443 $ 1,146,258,538 

 Table 5-27: Year 2045 Boulevard Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.83 $ 61.41 

 NEC-VA $ 154.59 $ 76.91 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 97.32 

 VA-NEC $ 152.09 $ 76.10 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 46.34 

 VA-NC $ - $ 75.77 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 100.33 

 NC-VA $ - $ 71.82 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.88 

 Total $ 146.17 $ 64.65 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-17 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-28: Year 2045 Broad Street Annual Trips by Mode and Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 186,946,004 6,506,060 42,684,110 2,922,465 11,383,932 

NEC-VA 34,314,092 2,032,686 3,125,446 290,831 2,182,511 

NEC-NC 5,954,866 3,408,931 1,299,626 - 270,586 

VA-NEC 32,123,269 2,111,458 2,420,919 262,343 2,009,011 

VA-VA 26,125,102 93,469 1,222,000 923 573,184 

VA-NC 16,713,504 366,676 1,522,462 - 157,718 

NC-NEC 6,232,736 4,071,982 280,068 - 297,944 

NC-VA 17,509,994 396,953 655,927 - 173,255 

NC-NC 33,986,775 41,697 2,775,919 - 638,548 

Total 359,906,343 19,029,910 55,986,477 3,476,563 17,686,690 

Table 5-29: Year 2045 Broad Street Annual Highway Miles (access/egress for common 

carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 29,129,686,630 284,822,714 2,129,660,302 104,423,280 453,574,192 

NEC-VA 8,154,189,829 95,399,267 147,376,570 13,417,935 90,920,806 

NEC-NC 3,046,424,185 178,415,352 66,073,897 - 8,939,790 

VA-NEC 7,569,787,570 96,433,087 117,949,194 11,780,862 81,089,734 

VA-VA 3,838,285,167 3,292,427 51,213,074 63,459 21,780,894 

VA-NC 3,613,148,189 18,377,826 82,421,641 - 5,908,168 

NC-NEC 3,104,064,381 521,410,893 17,079,427 - 9,302,039 

NC-VA 3,806,823,217 19,899,690 43,490,643 - 6,525,523 

NC-NC 5,252,706,525 2,812,448 164,765,664 - 24,719,306 

Total 67,515,115,695 1,220,863,705 2,820,030,411 129,685,536 702,760,453 

Table 5-30: Year 2045 Broad Street Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.8 43.8 49.9 35.7 39.8 

NEC-VA 237.6 46.9 47.2 46.1 41.7 

NEC-NC 511.6 52.3 50.8 - 33.0 

VA-NEC 235.6 45.7 48.7 44.9 40.4 

VA-VA 146.9 35.2 41.9 68.8 38.0 

VA-NC 216.2 50.1 54.1 - 37.5 

NC-NEC 498.0 128.0 61.0 - 31.2 

NC-VA 217.4 50.1 66.3 - 37.7 

NC-NC 154.6 67.5 59.4 - 38.7 

Total 187.6 64.2 50.4 37.3 39.7 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-18 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-31: Year 2045 Broad Street Annual Common Carrier Passenger Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 1,749,227,532 4,541,901,698 488,381,193 1,594,128,252 

NEC-VA - 691,989,317 557,443,750 54,232,758 433,977,752 

NEC-NC - 1,687,759,343 596,506,998 - 125,663,376 

VA-NEC - 727,454,003 509,669,619 47,681,983 403,241,744 

VA-VA - 32,282,699 121,274,828 26,762 71,192,454 

VA-NC - 100,280,546 280,153,558 - 46,879,480 

NC-NEC - 2,049,934,379 100,382,884 - 137,893,873 

NC-VA - 111,052,530 127,004,249 - 49,794,116 

NC-NC - 5,077,856 313,298,293 - 74,366,806 

Total - 7,155,058,206 7,147,635,878 590,322,696 2,937,137,853 

Table 5-32: Year 2045 Broad Street Average Common Carrier Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.9 106.4 167.1 140.0 

NEC-VA - 340.4 178.4 186.5 198.8 

NEC-NC - 495.1 459.0 - 464.4 

VA-NEC - 344.5 210.5 181.8 200.7 

VA-VA - 345.4 99.2 29.0 124.2 

VA-NC - 273.5 184.0 - 297.2 

NC-NEC - 503.4 358.4 - 462.8 

NC-VA - 279.8 193.6 - 287.4 

NC-NC - 121.8 112.9 - 116.5 

Total - 376.0 127.7 169.8 166.1 

Table 5-33: Year 2045 Broad Street Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 423,251,035 $ 699,084,674 

NEC-VA $ 44,959,225 $ 167,710,335 

NEC-NC $ - $ 26,333,924 

VA-NEC $ 39,900,105 $ 152,794,038 

VA-VA $ 43,077 $ 26,537,071 

VA-NC $ - $ 11,994,638 

NC-NEC $ - $ 30,020,390 

NC-VA $ - $ 12,552,890 

NC-NC $ - $ 16,529,146 

Total $ 508,153,443 $ 1,143,557,106 

 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-19 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

 Table 5-34: Year 2045 Broad Street Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.83 $ 61.41 

 NEC-VA $ 154.59 $ 76.84 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 97.32 

 VA-NEC $ 152.09 $ 76.05 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 46.30 

 VA-NC $ - $ 76.05 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 100.76 

 NC-VA $ - $ 72.45 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.89 

 Total $ 146.17 $ 64.66 

Table 5-35: Year 2045 Main Street Annual Trips by Mode and Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 186,946,271 6,506,060 42,684,158 2,922,482 11,383,599 

NEC-VA 34,296,904 2,031,138 3,122,911 290,831 2,203,781 

NEC-NC 5,954,968 3,408,925 1,299,731 - 270,385 

VA-NEC 32,109,663 2,110,338 2,418,940 262,420 2,025,638 

VA-VA 26,103,100 93,468 1,220,779 923 596,407 

VA-NC 16,713,358 366,645 1,522,640 - 157,717 

NC-NEC 6,237,469 4,073,691 280,350 - 291,221 

NC-VA 17,511,085 397,163 656,108 - 171,773 

NC-NC 33,988,015 41,698 2,775,852 - 637,375 

Total 359,860,835 19,029,126 55,981,468 3,476,657 17,737,897 

Table 5-36: Year 2045 Main Street Annual Highway Miles (access/egress for common 

carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 29,129,698,511 284,822,714 2,129,660,731 104,423,411 453,571,408 

NEC-VA 8,148,989,215 95,325,688 147,243,008 13,417,935 91,605,564 

NEC-NC 3,046,457,729 178,414,973 66,080,522 - 8,936,087 

VA-NEC 7,565,853,987 96,377,581 117,828,106 11,785,447 81,670,893 

VA-VA 3,835,180,604 3,292,306 51,139,516 63,459 22,672,705 

VA-NC 3,613,123,211 18,377,103 82,437,003 - 5,872,862 

NC-NEC 3,105,937,322 521,504,236 17,098,182 - 9,306,528 

NC-VA 3,807,158,939 19,911,735 43,503,614 - 6,429,733 

NC-NC 5,252,873,461 2,812,519 164,754,628 - 24,768,491 

Total 67,505,272,980 1,220,838,857 2,819,745,309 129,690,253 704,834,271 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-20 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-37: Year 2045 Main Street Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.8 43.8 49.9 35.7 39.8 

NEC-VA 237.6 46.9 47.1 46.1 41.6 

NEC-NC 511.6 52.3 50.8 - 33.0 

VA-NEC 235.6 45.7 48.7 44.9 40.3 

VA-VA 146.9 35.2 41.9 68.8 38.0 

VA-NC 216.2 50.1 54.1 - 37.2 

NC-NEC 497.9 128.0 61.0 - 32.0 

NC-VA 217.4 50.1 66.3 - 37.4 

NC-NC 154.6 67.5 59.4 - 38.9 

Total 187.6 64.2 50.4 37.3 39.7 

Table 5-38: Year 2045 Main Street Annual Common Carrier Passenger Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 1,749,227,532 4,541,903,729 488,381,877 1,594,114,634 

NEC-VA - 691,491,846 556,785,504 54,232,758 440,661,118 

NEC-NC - 1,687,755,988 596,550,262 - 125,596,252 

VA-NEC - 727,098,146 509,168,248 47,685,054 408,174,407 

VA-VA - 32,282,717 121,124,402 26,762 74,275,495 

VA-NC - 100,272,893 280,179,797 - 46,823,929 

NC-NEC - 2,050,752,057 100,503,231 - 134,756,927 

NC-VA - 111,109,824 127,045,381 - 49,392,947 

NC-NC - 5,077,972 313,302,914 - 74,346,956 

Total - 7,155,068,975 7,146,563,467 590,326,451 2,948,142,663 

Table 5-39: Year 2045 Main Street Average Common Carrier Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.9 106.4 167.1 140.0 

NEC-VA - 340.4 178.3 186.5 200.0 

NEC-NC - 495.1 459.0 - 464.5 

VA-NEC - 344.5 210.5 181.7 201.5 

VA-VA - 345.4 99.2 29.0 124.5 

VA-NC - 273.5 184.0 - 296.9 

NC-NEC - 503.4 358.5 - 462.7 

NC-VA - 279.8 193.6 - 287.5 

NC-NC - 121.8 112.9 - 116.6 

Total - 376.0 127.7 169.8 166.2 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-21 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-40: Year 2045 Main Street Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 423,252,007 $ 699,077,255 

NEC-VA $ 44,959,225 $ 167,598,765 

NEC-NC $ - $ 26,321,658 

VA-NEC $ 39,904,466 $ 151,703,443 

VA-VA $ 43,077 $ 23,551,674 

VA-NC $ - $ 12,057,973 

NC-NEC $ - $ 28,965,748 

NC-VA $ - $ 12,761,453 

NC-NC $ - $ 16,486,099 

Total $ 508,158,775 $ 1,138,524,069 

 

 Table 5-41: Year 2045 Main Street Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.83 $ 61.41 

 NEC-VA $ 154.59 $ 76.05 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 97.35 

 VA-NEC $ 152.06 $ 74.89 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 39.49 

 VA-NC $ - $ 76.45 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 99.46 

 NC-VA $ - $ 74.29 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.87 

 Total $ 146.16 $ 64.19 

Table 5-42: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Full Annual Trips by Mode and Geographic 

Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 186,946,004 6,506,060 42,684,110 2,922,465 11,383,932 

NEC-VA 34,287,001 2,030,473 3,121,988 290,831 2,215,272 

NEC-NC 5,956,629 3,410,148 1,300,311 - 266,920 

VA-NEC 32,098,325 2,109,497 2,417,686 262,343 2,039,148 

VA-VA 26,090,468 93,490 1,219,834 923 609,964 

VA-NC 16,712,289 366,752 1,522,337 - 158,982 

NC-NEC 6,234,258 4,072,533 280,169 - 295,771 

NC-VA 17,507,302 396,965 655,850 - 176,012 

NC-NC 33,987,294 41,698 2,775,962 - 637,985 

Total 359,819,570 19,027,617 55,978,248 3,476,563 17,783,985 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-22 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-43: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Full Annual Highway Miles (access/egress 

for common carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 29,129,686,630 284,822,714 2,129,660,302 104,423,280 453,574,192 

NEC-VA 8,146,786,170 95,290,992 147,226,342 13,417,935 92,305,685 

NEC-NC 3,047,104,204 178,468,551 66,103,648 - 8,822,651 

VA-NEC 7,563,453,062 96,337,634 117,804,374 11,780,862 82,341,169 

VA-VA 3,833,829,142 3,292,891 51,109,144 63,459 23,592,640 

VA-NC 3,612,847,008 18,380,429 82,412,740 - 6,039,268 

NC-NEC 3,104,676,348 521,438,467 17,083,945 - 9,232,146 

NC-VA 3,806,262,998 19,900,856 43,482,852 - 6,659,479 

NC-NC 5,252,780,169 2,812,519 164,768,456 - 24,681,318 

Total 67,497,425,732 1,220,745,053 2,819,651,803 129,685,536 707,248,548 

Table 5-44: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Full Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.8 43.8 49.9 35.7 39.8 

NEC-VA 237.6 46.9 47.2 46.1 41.7 

NEC-NC 511.5 52.3 50.8 - 33.1 

VA-NEC 235.6 45.7 48.7 44.9 40.4 

VA-VA 146.9 35.2 41.9 68.8 38.7 

VA-NC 216.2 50.1 54.1 - 38.0 

NC-NEC 498.0 128.0 61.0 - 31.2 

NC-VA 217.4 50.1 66.3 - 37.8 

NC-NC 154.6 67.5 59.4 - 38.7 

Total 187.6 64.2 50.4 37.3 39.8 

Table 5-45: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Full Annual Common Carrier Passenger 

Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 1,749,227,532 4,541,901,698 488,381,193 1,594,128,252 

NEC-VA - 691,300,511 556,577,622 54,232,758 442,023,750 

NEC-NC - 1,688,248,335 596,797,788 - 124,042,512 

VA-NEC - 726,853,486 508,889,078 47,681,983 409,961,604 

VA-VA - 32,285,935 121,029,946 26,762 74,271,723 

VA-NC - 100,298,256 280,128,025 - 47,246,623 

NC-NEC - 2,050,184,315 100,421,293 - 136,981,053 

NC-VA - 111,054,996 126,991,495 - 50,910,867 

NC-NC - 5,077,979 313,304,310 - 74,289,810 

Total - 7,154,531,344 7,146,041,255 590,322,696 2,953,856,195 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-23 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-46: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Full Average Common Carrier Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.9 106.4 167.1 140.0 

NEC-VA - 340.5 178.3 186.5 199.5 

NEC-NC - 495.1 459.0 - 464.7 

VA-NEC - 344.6 210.5 181.8 201.0 

VA-VA - 345.3 99.2 29.0 121.8 

VA-NC - 273.5 184.0 - 297.2 

NC-NEC - 503.4 358.4 - 463.1 

NC-VA - 279.8 193.6 - 289.2 

NC-NC - 121.8 112.9 - 116.4 

Total - 376.0 127.7 169.8 166.1 

Table 5-47: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Full Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 423,251,035 $ 699,084,674 

NEC-VA $ 44,959,225 $ 168,496,969 

NEC-NC $ - $ 26,026,242 

VA-NEC $ 39,900,105 $ 152,733,676 

VA-VA $ 43,077 $ 23,833,119 

VA-NC $ - $ 11,324,992 

NC-NEC $ - $ 29,847,117 

NC-VA $ - $ 12,899,042 

NC-NC $ - $ 16,512,372 

Total $ 508,153,443 $ 1,140,758,202 

 

 Table 5-48: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Full Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.83 $ 61.41 

 NEC-VA $ 154.59 $ 76.06 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 97.51 

 VA-NEC $ 152.09 $ 74.90 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 39.07 

 VA-NC $ - $ 71.23 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 100.91 

 NC-VA $ - $ 73.29 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.88 

 Total $ 146.17 $ 64.15 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-24 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-49: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Split Annual Trips by Mode and Geographic 

Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 186,946,004 6,506,060 42,684,110 2,922,465 11,383,932 

NEC-VA 34,316,739 2,033,915 3,126,618 291,239 2,177,055 

NEC-NC 5,949,285 3,408,765 1,298,459 - 277,501 

VA-NEC 32,118,612 2,111,462 2,420,487 262,343 2,014,095 

VA-VA 26,118,516 93,332 1,221,929 923 579,978 

VA-NC 16,701,123 365,241 1,520,359 - 173,638 

NC-NEC 6,223,284 4,064,308 279,209 - 315,929 

NC-VA 17,499,283 395,869 655,636 - 185,342 

NC-NC 33,991,165 41,708 2,776,843 - 633,223 

Total 359,864,011 19,020,660 55,983,650 3,476,970 17,740,691 

Table 5-50: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Split Annual Highway Miles (access/egress 

for common carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 29,129,686,630 284,822,714 2,129,660,302 104,423,280 453,574,192 

NEC-VA 8,154,436,925 95,434,631 147,399,869 13,440,395 91,343,152 

NEC-NC 3,044,604,667 178,425,853 66,027,383 - 9,147,871 

VA-NEC 7,568,139,873 96,418,623 117,905,363 11,780,862 81,789,140 

VA-VA 3,837,009,404 3,288,236 51,188,465 63,459 22,498,120 

VA-NC 3,609,871,940 18,317,859 82,344,314 - 6,578,372 

NC-NEC 3,100,278,317 521,073,391 17,040,201 - 9,864,474 

NC-VA 3,804,180,401 19,854,271 43,474,776 - 7,031,842 

NC-NC 5,253,496,552 2,813,472 164,823,073 - 24,418,999 

Total 67,501,704,710 1,220,449,050 2,819,863,746 129,707,996 706,246,163 

Table 5-51: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Split Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.8 43.8 49.9 35.7 39.8 

NEC-VA 237.6 46.9 47.1 46.1 42.0 

NEC-NC 511.8 52.3 50.9 - 33.0 

VA-NEC 235.6 45.7 48.7 44.9 40.6 

VA-VA 146.9 35.2 41.9 68.8 38.8 

VA-NC 216.1 50.2 54.2 - 37.9 

NC-NEC 498.2 128.2 61.0 - 31.2 

NC-VA 217.4 50.2 66.3 - 37.9 

NC-NC 154.6 67.5 59.4 - 38.6 

Total 187.6 64.2 50.4 37.3 39.8 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-25 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-52: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Split Annual Common Carrier Passenger 

Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 1,749,227,532 4,541,901,698 488,381,193 1,594,128,252 

NEC-VA - 692,297,291 557,710,485 54,295,034 432,240,824 

NEC-NC - 1,687,862,465 596,173,203 - 127,509,913 

VA-NEC - 727,439,129 509,530,089 47,681,983 404,110,595 

VA-VA - 32,262,415 121,248,354 26,762 71,362,480 

VA-NC - 99,902,528 279,623,170 - 52,280,533 

NC-NEC - 2,046,809,440 100,111,356 - 146,089,467 

NC-VA - 110,755,712 126,911,066 - 53,446,845 

NC-NC - 5,079,383 313,423,253 - 73,758,203 

Total - 7,151,635,896 7,146,632,675 590,384,971 2,954,927,112 

Table 5-53: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Split Average Common Carrier Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.9 106.4 167.1 140.0 

NEC-VA - 340.4 178.4 186.4 198.5 

NEC-NC - 495.2 459.1 - 459.5 

VA-NEC - 344.5 210.5 181.8 200.6 

VA-VA - 345.7 99.2 29.0 123.0 

VA-NC - 273.5 183.9 - 301.1 

NC-NEC - 503.6 358.6 - 462.4 

NC-VA - 279.8 193.6 - 288.4 

NC-NC - 121.8 112.9 - 116.5 

Total - 376.0 127.7 169.8 166.6 

Table 5-54: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Split Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 423,251,035 $ 699,084,674 

NEC-VA $ 45,014,391 $ 165,415,989 

NEC-NC $ - $ 26,843,216 

VA-NEC $ 39,900,105 $ 151,003,852 

VA-VA $ 43,077 $ 22,636,024 

VA-NC $ - $ 11,056,229 

NC-NEC $ - $ 31,740,140 

NC-VA $ - $ 11,721,706 

NC-NC $ - $ 16,418,481 

Total $ 508,208,609 $ 1,135,920,311 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-26 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

 Table 5-55: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Split Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.83 $ 61.41 

 NEC-VA $ 154.56 $ 75.98 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 96.73 

 VA-NEC $ 152.09 $ 74.97 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 39.03 

 VA-NC $ - $ 63.67 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 100.47 

 NC-VA $ - $ 63.24 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.93 

 Total $ 146.16 $ 64.03 

Table 5-56: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Share Annual Trips by Mode and 

Geographic Market 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 186,946,004 6,506,060 42,684,110 2,922,465 11,383,932 

NEC-VA 34,290,371 2,030,910 3,122,423 290,831 2,211,030 

NEC-NC 5,951,888 3,409,320 1,299,019 - 273,782 

VA-NEC 32,102,663 2,109,968 2,418,267 262,343 2,033,759 

VA-VA 26,095,013 93,490 1,220,217 923 605,035 

VA-NC 16,710,638 366,294 1,522,036 - 161,392 

NC-NEC 6,229,614 4,071,671 279,909 - 301,537 

NC-VA 17,504,987 396,730 655,864 - 178,547 

NC-NC 33,987,781 41,689 2,776,050 - 637,420 

Total 359,818,959 19,026,133 55,977,895 3,476,563 17,786,433 

Table 5-57: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Share Annual Highway Miles 

(access/egress for common carrier modes) 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 29,129,686,630 284,822,714 2,129,660,302 104,423,280 453,574,192 

NEC-VA 8,147,643,760 95,306,572 147,239,184 13,417,935 92,409,663 

NEC-NC 3,045,374,313 178,420,530 66,040,035 - 9,044,907 

VA-NEC 7,564,466,210 96,354,836 117,822,579 11,780,862 82,375,251 

VA-VA 3,834,379,451 3,292,931 51,123,954 63,459 23,529,754 

VA-NC 3,612,413,996 18,362,141 82,398,870 - 6,153,927 

NC-NEC 3,102,776,336 521,388,799 17,073,147 - 9,426,323 

NC-VA 3,805,556,963 19,888,817 43,480,859 - 6,754,273 

NC-NC 5,252,813,344 2,811,889 164,774,078 - 24,705,624 

Total 67,495,111,003 1,220,649,229 2,819,613,007 129,685,536 707,973,915 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-27 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-58: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Share Average Highway Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC 155.8 43.8 49.9 35.7 39.8 

NEC-VA 237.6 46.9 47.2 46.1 41.8 

NEC-NC 511.7 52.3 50.8 - 33.0 

VA-NEC 235.6 45.7 48.7 44.9 40.5 

VA-VA 146.9 35.2 41.9 68.8 38.9 

VA-NC 216.2 50.1 54.1 - 38.1 

NC-NEC 498.1 128.1 61.0 - 31.3 

NC-VA 217.4 50.1 66.3 - 37.8 

NC-NC 154.6 67.4 59.4 - 38.8 

Total 187.6 64.2 50.4 37.3 39.8 

Table 5-59: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Share Annual Common Carrier Passenger 

Miles 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 1,749,227,532 4,541,901,698 488,381,193 1,594,128,252 

NEC-VA - 691,422,293 556,684,961 54,232,758 440,697,531 

NEC-NC - 1,687,917,010 596,297,577 - 126,443,792 

VA-NEC - 726,985,041 509,026,325 47,681,983 408,462,768 

VA-VA - 32,286,002 121,070,252 26,762 73,590,580 

VA-NC - 100,194,923 280,045,514 - 47,832,689 

NC-NEC - 2,049,727,117 100,314,592 - 139,340,582 

NC-VA - 110,992,252 126,980,082 - 51,224,612 

NC-NC - 5,076,890 313,316,307 - 74,197,241 

Total - 7,153,829,062 7,145,637,306 590,322,696 2,955,918,047 

Table 5-60: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Share Average Common Carrier Miles/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC - 268.9 106.4 167.1 140.0 

NEC-VA - 340.4 178.3 186.5 199.3 

NEC-NC - 495.1 459.0 - 461.8 

VA-NEC - 344.5 210.5 181.8 200.8 

VA-VA - 345.3 99.2 29.0 121.6 

VA-NC - 273.5 184.0 - 296.4 

NC-NEC - 503.4 358.4 - 462.1 

NC-VA - 279.8 193.6 - 286.9 

NC-NC - 121.8 112.9 - 116.4 

Total - 376.0 127.7 169.8 166.2 
YEAR 2045 RIDERSHIP FORECASTS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-28 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Table 5-61: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Share Annual Rail Revenue 

Geographic 

Market 

Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

NEC-NEC $ 423,251,035 $ 699,084,674 

NEC-VA $ 44,959,225 $ 168,178,985 

NEC-NC $ - $ 26,501,014 

VA-NEC $ 39,900,105 $ 152,325,083 

VA-VA $ 43,077 $ 23,633,928 

VA-NC $ - $ 10,906,329 

NC-NEC $ - $ 30,300,677 

NC-VA $ - $ 12,052,885 

NC-NC $ - $ 16,495,668 

Total $ 508,153,443 $ 1,139,479,242 

 Table 5-62: Year 2045 Staples Mill and Main St Share Average Rail Revenue/Trip 

Geographic 

Market 

 Highway Air Bus HSR Regional 

 NEC-NEC $ 144.83 $ 61.41 

 NEC-VA $ 154.59 $ 76.06 

 NEC-NC $ - $ 96.80 

 VA-NEC $ 152.09 $ 74.90 

 VA-VA $ 46.68 $ 39.06 

 VA-NC $ - $ 67.58 

 NC-NEC $ - $ 100.49 

 NC-VA $ - $ 67.51 

 NC-NC $ - $ 25.88 

 Total $ 146.17 $ 64.06 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-1 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

APPENDIX—EXISTING RAIL SCHEDULE 

This appendix presents the existing-year rail schedule used in the development and application 

of the DC2RVA ridership forecasting model. Note that the analysis at this stage of the process 

uses daily train frequency together with station stop location and travel time to describe the levelof-service. Specific times-of-day for individual trains are not part of this process. As the analysis 

proceeds into the Service Development Plan, specific arrival and departure times will be used for 

each train. 

A 
APPENDIX—EXISTING RAIL SCHEDULE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-2 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Existing Regional Rail Southbound Schedule (1 of 4) 

Southbound REG REG REG REG LD REG LD NC REG NC REG NC REG

67 65 151 111 89 181 51 73 75 79

Stations BOS-NPN BOS-NPN NYP-WAS NYP-WAS NYP-SAV NYP-WAS NYP-CHI RGH-CLT RGH-CLT NYP-CLT

FREQUENCY Su-R FSa M-F M-F Daily M-F Daily M-F M-F Daily

Boston, MA (South) BOS Dp 21:30:00 21:30:00

Boston,MA (Back Bay) BBY Dp 21:36:00 21:36:00

Route 128, MA RTE Dp 21:50:00 21:50:00

Providence, RI PVD Dp 22:22:00 22:22:00

Kingston, RI KIN Dp 22:48:00 22:48:00

Westerly, RI WLY Dp 23:05:00 23:05:00

Mystic, CT MYS Dp 23:17:00 23:17:00

New London, CT NLC Dp 23:31:00 23:31:00

Old Saybrook, CT OSB Dp 23:53:00 23:53:00

Springfield, MA SPG Dp

Windsor Locks, CT WNL Dp

Windsor, CT WND Dp

Hartford, CT HFD Dp

Berlin, CT BER Dp

Meriden, CT MDN Dp

Wallingford, CT WFD Dp

New Haven, CT NHV Ar

New Haven, CT NHV Ar 0:30:00 12:30:00

New Haven, CT NHV Dp 0:35:00 0:35:00

Bridgeport, CT BRP Dp

Stamford, CT STM Dp 1:21:00 1:21:00

New Rochelle, NY NRO Dp

New York, NY NYP Ar 2:15:00 2:15:00

New York, NY NYP Dp 3:00:00 3:00:00 4:40:00 5:30:00 6:05:00 6:10:00 6:45:00 7:05:00

Newark, NJ NWK Dp 3:20:00 3:20:00 R04:57:00 R05:46:00 R06:22:00 R06:27:00 R07:05:00 R07:24:00

Newark Airport, NJ EWR Dp

Metropark, NJ MET Dp 3:36:00 3:36:00 5:12:00 5:58:00 6:41:00

New Brunswick, NJ NBK Dp 6:50:00

Princeton Jct, NJ PJC Dp 6:16:00 7:05:00

Trenton, NJ TRE Dp 4:03:00 4:03:00 5:35:00 6:26:00 R07:02:00 7:15:00 R07:42:00 8:03:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Ar 4:35:00 4:35:00 6:02:00 6:53:00 R07:28:00 7:42:00 R08:08:00 8:30:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Dp 4:40:00 4:40:00 6:05:00 6:55:00 R07:32:00 7:45:00 R08:15:00 8:35:00

Wilmington, DE WIL Dp 5:05:00 5:03:00 6:25:00 7:15:00 R07:56:00 8:07:00 R08:44:00 8:58:00

Newark, DE NRK Dp

Aberdeen, MD ABE Dp 6:57:00 8:34:00

Baltimore, MD BAL Dp 6:10:00 5:51:00 7:32:00 8:00:00 R08:50:00 8:59:00 R09:30:00 9:45:00

BWI Airport, MD BWI Dp 6:23:00 6:06:00 7:45:00 8:15:00 9:11:00

New Carrolton, MD NCR Dp 6:45:00 6:22:00 D08:04:00 D08:30:00 D9:29:00

Washington, DC WAS Ar 6:58:00 6:36:00 8:20:00 8:50:00 R09:25:00 9:50:00 R10:10:00 10:25:00

Washington, DC WAS Dp 7:30:00 7:00:00 R09:55:00 R11:05:00 10:53:00

L'Enfant, DC XLN Dp

Alexandria, VA ALX Dp 7:48:00 7:18:00 10:13:00 R11:24:00 11:10:00

Burke Center, VA BCV Dp

Manassas, VA MSS Dp 11:57:00

Culpeper, VA CLP Dp 12:30:00

Charlottesville, VA CVS Dp 13:48:00

Lynchburg, VA LYH Ar

Roanoke, VA RNK Ar

Danville, VA DAN Dp

Lorton, VA LOR Dp

Woodbridge, VA WDB Dp

Quantico, VA QAN Dp 8:14:00 7:44:00 11:36:00

Fredericksburg, VA FBG Dp 8:36:00 8:05:00 11:56:00

Ashland, VA ASD Dp 9:18:00 8:47:00

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Ar 9:39:00 9:03:00 12:02:00 12:59:00

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Dp 9:44:00 9:08:00 12:14:00 13:08:00

Richmond Main Street, VA RVM Dp 10:10:00 9:34:00

Williamsburg, VA WBG Dp 11:14:00 L10:38:00

Newport News, VA NPN Ar 11:45:00 11:15:00

Petersburg, VA PTB Dp 12:49:00 13:41:00

Norfolk, VA NFK Ar

Rocky Mount, NC RMT Dp 14:24:00 15:11:00

Wilson, NC WLN Dp 14:42:00 15:30:00

Selma-Smithfield, NC SSM Dp 15:09:00 16:03:00

Fayetteville, NC FAY Dp 16:00:00

La Crosse, VA XLC Dp

Henderson, NC XHN Dp

Raleigh, NC RGH Ar 16:42:00

Raleigh, NC RGH Dp 6:45:00 11:45:00 16:50:00

Cary, NC CYN Dp 6:57:00 11:57:00 17:03:00

Durham, NC DNC Dp 7:17:00 12:17:00 17:24:00

Hillsborough, NC XHG Dp xxx

Burlington, NC BNC Dp 7:53:00 12:53:00 18:01:00

Greensboro, NC GRO Dp 8:18:00 13:18:00 18:32:00

High Point, NC HPT Dp 8:34:00 13:34:00 18:48:00

Lexington, NC XLX Dp xxx

Salisbury, NC SAL Dp 9:08:00 14:08:00 19:24:00

Kannapolis, NC KAN Dp 9:24:00 14:24:00 19:41:00

Harrisburg, NC XHB Dp xxx

Charlotte, NC CLT Ar 9:55:00 14:55:00 20:12:00

Southern Pines, NC SOP Dp

Hamlet, NC HAM Dp
APPENDIX—EXISTING RAIL SCHEDULE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-3 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Existing Regional Rail Southbound Schedule (2 of 4) 

Southbound REG REG REG REG SHUTTLE LD AT REG REG REG

183 185 141 95 495 91 53 125 171 133

Stations NYP-WAS NYP-WAS SPG-WAS BOS-NPN SPG-NHV NYP-MIA LOR-SFA NYP-NFK BOS-LYH NYP-WAS

FREQUENCY M-F M-F M-F M-F M-F Daily Daily M-F M-F F

Boston, MA (South) BOS Dp 6:10:00 8:15:00

Boston,MA (Back Bay) BBY Dp R06:15:00 R08:21:00

Route 128, MA RTE Dp R06:25:00 R08:31:00

Providence, RI PVD Dp 6:50:00 8:55:00

Kingston, RI KIN Dp 7:11:00 9:15:00

Westerly, RI WLY Dp 7:25:00

Mystic, CT MYS Dp

New London, CT NLC Dp 7:45:00 9:48:00

Old Saybrook, CT OSB Dp 8:04:00

Springfield, MA SPG Dp 5:55:00 7:10:00

Windsor Locks, CT WNL Dp 6:15:00 7:28:00

Windsor, CT WND Dp 6:20:00 7:33:00

Hartford, CT HFD Dp 6:35:00 7:45:00

Berlin, CT BER Dp 6:49:00 7:58:00

Meriden, CT MDN Dp 6:59:00 8:08:00

Wallingford, CT WFD Dp 7:07:00 8:15:00

New Haven, CT NHV Ar 8:35:00

New Haven, CT NHV Ar 7:24:00 8:41:00 10:38:00

New Haven, CT NHV Dp 7:37:00 8:43:00 10:40:00

Bridgeport, CT BRP Dp 7:59:00 11:02:00

Stamford, CT STM Dp 8:27:00 9:30:00 11:29:00

New Rochelle, NY NRO Dp 8:48:00

New York, NY NYP Ar 9:21:00 10:21:00 12:20:00

New York, NY NYP Dp 7:17:00 8:10:00 9:35:00 10:35:00 11:02:00 11:35:00 12:35:00 13:09:00

Newark, NJ NWK Dp R07:34:00 8:27:00 9:52:00 10:53:00 R11:22:00 11:52:00 12:52:00 R13:25:00

Newark Airport, NJ EWR Dp 8:32:00 9:56:00 12:57:00

Metropark, NJ MET Dp 7:48:00 8:45:00 10:09:00 11:07:00 12:05:00 13:10:00

New Brunswick, NJ NBK Dp

Princeton Jct, NJ PJC Dp

Trenton, NJ TRE Dp 8:11:00 9:08:00 10:32:00 11:30:00 R12:00:00 12:30:00 13:32:00 13:58:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Ar 8:39:00 9:35:00 11:00:00 11:57:00 R12:30:00 12:57:00 14:00:00 14:26:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Dp 8:42:00 9:37:00 11:11:00 12:02:00 R12:35:00 13:00:00 14:10:00 14:29:00

Wilmington, DE WIL Dp 9:03:00 9:58:00 11:32:00 12:24:00 R13:02:00 13:21:00 14:32:00 14:50:00

Newark, DE NRK Dp 15:01:00

Aberdeen, MD ABE Dp 14:59:00

Baltimore, MD BAL Dp 9:50:00 10:45:00 12:18:00 13:17:00 R13:55:00 14:14:00 15:30:00 15:40:00

BWI Airport, MD BWI Dp 10:04:00 10:58:00 12:31:00 13:30:00 14:28:00 15:45:00 15:55:00

New Carrolton, MD NCR Dp R10:18:00 D11:12:00 D12:44:00 13:45:00 14:42:00 15:59:00 D16:08:00

Washington, DC WAS Ar 10:40:00 11:35:00 13:05:00 14:00:00 R14:35:00 15:05:00 16:18:00 16:30:00

Washington, DC WAS Dp 14:30:00 R15:05:00 15:55:00 16:50:00

L'Enfant, DC XLN Dp R16:01:00 R16:56:00

Alexandria, VA ALX Dp 14:48:00 15:23:00 16:14:00 17:11:00

Burke Center, VA BCV Dp 17:30:00

Manassas, VA MSS Dp 17:49:00

Culpeper, VA CLP Dp 18:24:00

Charlottesville, VA CVS Dp 19:23:00

Lynchburg, VA LYH Ar 20:36:00

Roanoke, VA RNK Ar

Danville, VA DAN Dp

Lorton, VA LOR Dp 16:00:00

Woodbridge, VA WDB Dp 15:05:00 16:32:00

Quantico, VA QAN Dp 15:16:00 16:45:00

Fredericksburg, VA FBG Dp 15:40:00 17:12:00

Ashland, VA ASD Dp 16:22:00 17:54:00

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Ar 16:43:00 17:07:00 18:17:00

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Dp 16:48:00 17:17:00 18:24:00

Richmond Main Street, VA RVM Dp 17:15:00

Williamsburg, VA WBG Dp 18:21:00

Newport News, VA NPN Ar 18:52:00

Petersburg, VA PTB Dp 17:51:00 18:58:00

Norfolk, VA NFK Ar 20:38:00

Rocky Mount, NC RMT Dp 19:21:00

Wilson, NC WLN Dp

Selma-Smithfield, NC SSM Dp

Fayetteville, NC FAY Dp

La Crosse, VA XLC Dp

Henderson, NC XHN Dp

Raleigh, NC RGH Ar 20:48:00

Raleigh, NC RGH Dp 21:01:00

Cary, NC CYN Dp 21:23:00

Durham, NC DNC Dp

Hillsborough, NC XHG Dp

Burlington, NC BNC Dp

Greensboro, NC GRO Dp

High Point, NC HPT Dp

Lexington, NC XLX Dp

Salisbury, NC SAL Dp

Kannapolis, NC KAN Dp

Harrisburg, NC XHB Dp

Charlotte, NC CLT Ar

Southern Pines, NC SOP Dp 22:36:00

Hamlet, NC HAM Dp 23:13:00
APPENDIX—EXISTING RAIL SCHEDULE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-4 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Existing Regional Rail Southbound Schedule (3 of 4) 

Southbound REG REG SHUTTLE REG LD REG REG LD REG REG

133 93 493 83 19 85 173 97 127 129

Stations NYP-WAS BOS-RVR SPG-NHV BOS-NPN NYP-NOL NYP-RVR BOS-WAS NYP-MIA NYP-WAS NYP-WAS

FREQUENCY F M-R M-F F Daily M-F M-F Daily M-F M-F

Boston, MA (South) BOS Dp 9:30:00 9:30:00 11:15:00

Boston,MA (Back Bay) BBY Dp R09:36:00 R09:36:00 R11:21:00

Route 128, MA RTE Dp R09:46:00 R09:46:00 R11:32:00

Providence, RI PVD Dp 10:11:00 10:11:00 11:56:00

Kingston, RI KIN Dp 10:32:00 10:32:00 12:16:00

Westerly, RI WLY Dp 10:46:00 10:46:00

Mystic, CT MYS Dp 10:56:00 10:56:00

New London, CT NLC Dp 11:12:00 11:12:00 12:48:00

Old Saybrook, CT OSB Dp 11:31:00 11:31:00

Springfield, MA SPG Dp 10:30:00

Windsor Locks, CT WNL Dp 10:48:00

Windsor, CT WND Dp 10:53:00

Hartford, CT HFD Dp 11:03:00

Berlin, CT BER Dp 11:14:00

Meriden, CT MDN Dp 11:22:00

Wallingford, CT WFD Dp 11:29:00

New Haven, CT NHV Ar 11:50:00

New Haven, CT NHV Ar 12:04:00 12:04:00 13:38:00

New Haven, CT NHV Dp 12:09:00 12:09:00 13:40:00

Bridgeport, CT BRP Dp 12:31:00 12:31:00 14:02:00

Stamford, CT STM Dp 12:58:00 12:58:00 14:29:00

New Rochelle, NY NRO Dp 13:19:00 13:19:00 14:50:00

New York, NY NYP Ar 13:48:00 13:48:00 15:20:00

New York, NY NYP Dp 13:09:00 14:02:00 14:02:00 14:15:00 15:05:00 15:35:00 15:15:00 16:05:00 16:42:00

Newark, NJ NWK Dp R13:25:00 14:19:00 14:19:00 R14:37:00 15:22:00 15:53:00 R15:38:00 R16:22:00 16:58:00

Newark Airport, NJ EWR Dp 16:28:00

Metropark, NJ MET Dp 14:34:00 14:34:00 15:36:00 16:38:00 17:13:00

New Brunswick, NJ NBK Dp

Princeton Jct, NJ PJC Dp

Trenton, NJ TRE Dp 13:58:00 14:57:00 14:57:00 R15:18:00 16:00:00 R16:18:00 17:02:00 17:37:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Ar 14:26:00 15:24:00 15:24:00 R15:48:00 16:27:00 16:52:00 R16:48:00 17:30:00 18:04:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Dp 14:29:00 15:27:00 15:32:00 R15:55:00 16:30:00 16:55:00 R16:58:00 17:33:00 18:10:00

Wilmington, DE WIL Dp 14:50:00 15:48:00 15:53:00 R16:19:00 16:52:00 17:17:00 R17:22:00 17:53:00 18:30:00

Newark, DE NRK Dp 15:01:00

Aberdeen, MD ABE Dp 17:19:00 18:58:00

Baltimore, MD BAL Dp 15:40:00 16:33:00 16:38:00 R17:12:00 17:42:00 18:02:00 R18:14:00 18:40:00 19:22:00

BWI Airport, MD BWI Dp 15:55:00 16:46:00 16:51:00 17:56:00 18:15:00 18:53:00 19:35:00

New Carrolton, MD NCR Dp D16:08:00 17:00:00 17:05:00 18:10:00 D18:28:00 D19:07:00 D19:48:00

Washington, DC WAS Ar 16:30:00 17:15:00 17:20:00 R17:54:00 18:25:00 18:51:00 R18:55:00 19:30:00 20:10:00

Washington, DC WAS Dp 17:50:00 17:50:00 R18:30:00 19:05:00 R19:30:00

L'Enfant, DC XLN Dp R17:56:00 R17:56:00

Alexandria, VA ALX Dp 18:09:00 18:09:00 18:49:00 19:22:00 19:49:00

Burke Center, VA BCV Dp

Manassas, VA MSS Dp 19:22:00

Culpeper, VA CLP Dp 19:55:00

Charlottesville, VA CVS Dp 20:52:00

Lynchburg, VA LYH Ar 22:00:00

Roanoke, VA RNK Ar

Danville, VA DAN Dp 23:14:00

Lorton, VA LOR Dp

Woodbridge, VA WDB Dp 19:40:00

Quantico, VA QAN Dp 18:36:00 18:36:00 19:52:00

Fredericksburg, VA FBG Dp 19:01:00 19:01:00 20:17:00

Ashland, VA ASD Dp 19:45:00 19:45:00 20:59:00

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Ar 20:06:00 20:11:00 21:16:00 21:34:00

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Dp 20:16:00 21:44:00

Richmond Main Street, VA RVM Dp 20:44:00

Williamsburg, VA WBG Dp 21:41:00

Newport News, VA NPN Ar 22:15:00

Petersburg, VA PTB Dp 22:18:00

Norfolk, VA NFK Ar

Rocky Mount, NC RMT Dp 23:50:00

Wilson, NC WLN Dp

Selma-Smithfield, NC SSM Dp

Fayetteville, NC FAY Dp 1:22:00

La Crosse, VA XLC Dp

Henderson, NC XHN Dp

Raleigh, NC RGH Ar

Raleigh, NC RGH Dp

Cary, NC CYN Dp

Durham, NC DNC Dp

Hillsborough, NC XHG Dp

Burlington, NC BNC Dp

Greensboro, NC GRO Dp 0:22:00

High Point, NC HPT Dp 0:39:00

Lexington, NC XLX Dp x

Salisbury, NC SAL Dp 1:17:00

Kannapolis, NC KAN Dp

Harrisburg, NC XHB Dp x

Charlotte, NC CLT Ar 2:20:00

Southern Pines, NC SOP Dp

Hamlet, NC HAM Dp
APPENDIX—EXISTING RAIL SCHEDULE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-5 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Existing Regional Rail Southbound Schedule (4 of 4) 

Southbound REG REG VT. IC REG SHUTTLE REG REG REG SHUTTLE

193 137 55 175 475 187 177 179 479

Stations NYP-WAS BOS-WAS SAB-WAS BOS-WAS SPG-NHV NYP-WAS BOS-WAS BOS-NYP SPG-HNV

FREQUENCY M-F M-F M-F M-F M-F M-F M-F M-F M-F

Boston, MA (South) BOS Dp 13:40:00 15:20:00 17:35:00 18:45:00

Boston,MA (Back Bay) BBY Dp R13:46:00 R15:26:00 R17:40:00 R19:51:00

Route 128, MA RTE Dp R13:57:00 R15:37:00 R17:50:00 R19:01:00

Providence, RI PVD Dp 14:21:00 16:01:00 18:14:00 19:25:00

Kingston, RI KIN Dp 14:42:00 16:22:00 18:38:00 19:45:00

Westerly, RI WLY Dp 18:52:00

Mystic, CT MYS Dp 16:44:00 19:01:00

New London, CT NLC Dp 15:14:00 16:57:00 19:15:00 20:17:00

Old Saybrook, CT OSB Dp 15:32:00 17:15:00 19:36:00

Springfield, MA SPG Dp 14:50:00 16:05:00 19:25:00

Windsor Locks, CT WNL Dp 15:12:00 16:23:00 19:43:00

Windsor, CT WND Dp 16:28:00 19:48:00

Hartford, CT HFD Dp 15:32:00 16:42:00 20:01:00

Berlin, CT BER Dp 15:45:00 16:54:00 20:13:00

Meriden, CT MDN Dp 15:56:00 17:04:00 20:22:00

Wallingford, CT WFD Dp 16:05:00 17:11:00 20:31:00

New Haven, CT NHV Ar 17:35:00 20:50:00

New Haven, CT NHV Ar 16:07:00 16:25:00 17:43:00 20:11:00 21:08:00

New Haven, CT NHV Dp 16:09:00 16:39:00 17:45:00 20:13:00 21:10:00

Bridgeport, CT BRP Dp 16:31:00 17:01:00 20:35:00 21:32:00

Stamford, CT STM Dp 16:58:00 17:28:00 18:33:00 21:03:00 21:59:00

New Rochelle, NY NRO Dp 17:19:00 21:24:00

New York, NY NYP Ar 18:00:00 18:25:00 19:26:00 21:51:00 22:50:00

New York, NY NYP Dp 17:39:00 18:25:00 18:45:00 19:40:00 21:10:00 22:05:00

Newark, NJ NWK Dp 17:56:00 18:42:00 19:03:00 19:58:00 21:27:00 22:22:00

Newark Airport, NJ EWR Dp 18:47:00 20:03:00

Metropark, NJ MET Dp 19:01:00 20:16:00 21:42:00 22:38:00

New Brunswick, NJ NBK Dp

Princeton Jct, NJ PJC Dp

Trenton, NJ TRE Dp 19:24:00 19:38:00 20:38:00 22:04:00 23:01:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Ar 19:00:00 19:52:00 20:07:00 21:10:00 22:32:00 23:28:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Dp 19:10:00 19:55:00 20:10:00 21:12:00 22:35:00 23:30:00

Wilmington, DE WIL Dp 19:30:00 20:15:00 20:32:00 21:32:00 22:55:00 23:51:00

Newark, DE NRK Dp 19:40:00

Aberdeen, MD ABE Dp 20:00:00

Baltimore, MD BAL Dp 20:23:00 21:00:00 21:20:00 22:20:00 23:41:00 0:40:00

BWI Airport, MD BWI Dp 20:36:00 21:13:00 22:34:00 23:54:00 0:53:00

New Carrolton, MD NCR Dp D20:49:00 D21:26:00 D21:43:00 D22:48:00 D00:07:00 D01:06:00

Washington, DC WAS Ar 21:13:00 21:50:00 22:05:00 23:10:00 0:30:00 1:30:00

Washington, DC WAS Dp

L'Enfant, DC XLN Dp

Alexandria, VA ALX Dp

Burke Center, VA BCV Dp

Manassas, VA MSS Dp

Culpeper, VA CLP Dp

Charlottesville, VA CVS Dp

Lynchburg, VA LYH Ar

Roanoke, VA RNK Ar

Danville, VA DAN Dp

Lorton, VA LOR Dp

Woodbridge, VA WDB Dp

Quantico, VA QAN Dp

Fredericksburg, VA FBG Dp

Ashland, VA ASD Dp

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Ar

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Dp

Richmond Main Street, VA RVM Dp

Williamsburg, VA WBG Dp

Newport News, VA NPN Ar

Petersburg, VA PTB Dp

Norfolk, VA NFK Ar

Rocky Mount, NC RMT Dp

Wilson, NC WLN Dp

Selma-Smithfield, NC SSM Dp

Fayetteville, NC FAY Dp

La Crosse, VA XLC Dp

Henderson, NC XHN Dp

Raleigh, NC RGH Ar

Raleigh, NC RGH Dp

Cary, NC CYN Dp

Durham, NC DNC Dp

Hillsborough, NC XHG Dp

Burlington, NC BNC Dp

Greensboro, NC GRO Dp

High Point, NC HPT Dp

Lexington, NC XLX Dp

Salisbury, NC SAL Dp

Kannapolis, NC KAN Dp

Harrisburg, NC XHB Dp

Charlotte, NC CLT Ar

Southern Pines, NC SOP Dp

Hamlet, NC HAM Dp
APPENDIX—EXISTING RAIL SCHEDULE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-6 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Existing Regional Rail Northbound Schedule (1 of 4) 

 

Northbound REG SHUTTLE REG REG SHUTTLE REG REG REG LD VT. IC

190 490 110 170 470 180 130 172 98 56

Stations WAS-BOS NHV-SPG WAS-NYP WAS-BOS NHV-SPG WAS-NYP WAS-NYP WAS-BOS MIA-NYP WAS-SAB

FREQUENCY M-F M-F M-F M-F M-F M-F M-F M-F Daily M-F

Hamlet, NC HAM Dp

Southern Pines, NC SOP Dp

Charlotte, NC CLT Dp

Harrisburg, NC XHB Dp

Kannapolis, NC KAN Dp

Salisbury, NC SAL Dp

Lexington, NC XLX Dp

High Point, NC HPT Dp

Greensboro, NC GRO Dp

Burlington, NC BNC Dp

Hillsborough, NC XHG Dp

Durham, NC DNC Dp

Cary, NC CYN Dp

Raleigh, NC RGH Ar

Raleigh, NC RGH Dp

Henderson, NC XHN Dp

La Crosse, VA XLC Dp

Fayetteville, NC FAY Dp 0:42:00

Selma-Smithfield, NC SSM Dp

Wilson, NC WLN Dp

Rocky Mount, NC RMT Dp 2:14:00

Norfolk, VA NFK Dp

Petersburg, VA PTB Dp 3:38:00

Newport News, VA NPN Dp

Williamsburg, VA WBG Dp

Richmond Main Street, VA RVM Dp

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Ar 4:27:00

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Dp 4:37:00

Ashland, VA ASD Dp

Fredericksburg, VA FBG Dp

Quantico, VA QAN Dp

Woodbridge, VA WDB Dp

Lorton, VA LOR Ar

Danville, VA DAN Dp

Roanoke, VA RNK Dp

Lynchburg, VA LYH Dp

Charlottesville, VA CVS Dp

Culpeper, VA CLP Dp

Manassas, VA MSS Dp

Burke Center, VA BCV Dp

Alexandria, VA ALX Dp D06:36:0

L'Enfant, DC XLN Dp

Washington, DC WAS Ar D07:07:0

Washington, DC WAS Dp 3:15:00 4:00:00 4:52:00 5:30:00 6:30:00 7:25:00 D07:32:0 8:10:00

New Carrolton, MD NCR Dp R04:10:0 R05:03:0 R05:42:0 R06:42:0 R07:38:0 R08:20:0

BWI Airport, MD BWI Dp 3:40:00 4:25:00 5:20:00 5:57:00 6:57:00 7:53:00 8:35:00

Baltimore, MD BAL Dp 3:55:00 4:41:00 5:35:00 6:13:00 7:14:00 8:09:00 D08:12:0 8:52:00

Aberdeen, MD ABE Dp 4:18:00 6:35:00 7:37:00

Newark, DE NRK Dp

Wilmington, DE WIL Dp 4:46:00 5:27:00 6:21:00 7:02:00 8:04:00 8:55:00 D09:05:0 9:36:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Ar 5:10:00 5:50:00 6:45:00 7:26:00 8:28:00 9:19:00 D09:30:0 9:58:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Dp 5:15:00 5:53:00 6:48:00 7:28:00 8:30:00 9:21:00 D09:35:0 10:01:00

Trenton, NJ TRE Dp 5:45:00 6:27:00 7:16:00 9:00:00 9:48:00 D10:03:0 10:28:00

Princeton Jct, NJ PJC Dp

New Brunswick, NJ NBK Dp

Metropark, NJ MET Dp 9:27:00 10:10:00

Newark Airport, NJ EWR Dp 6:16:00 9:37:00 10:20:00

Newark, NJ NWK Dp 6:22:00 7:02:00 7:57:00 8:25:00 9:42:00 10:26:00 D10:40:0 11:03:00

New York, NY NYP Ar 6:40:00 7:22:00 8:15:00 8:44:00 10:00:00 10:44:00 D11:00:0 11:21:00

New York, NY NYP Dp 6:55:00 8:30:00 11:00:00 11:33:00

New Rochelle, NY NRO Dp 8:56:00 11:27:00

Stamford, CT STM Dp 7:47:00 9:19:00 11:48:00 12:18:00

Bridgeport, CT BRP Dp 9:47:00 12:16:00 12:46:00

New Haven, CT NHV Ar 8:35:00 10:11:00 12:42:00 13:11:00

New Haven, CT NHV Dp 8:37:00 10:13:00 12:44:00 13:25:00

New Haven, CT NHV Dp 8:40:00 10:30:00

Wallingford, CT WFD Dp 8:55:00 10:43:00 13:40:00

Meriden, CT MDN Dp 9:05:00 10:50:00 13:49:00

Berlin, CT BER Dp 9:16:00 10:59:00 13:59:00

Hartford, CT HFD Dp 9:29:00 11:15:00 14:13:00

Windsor, CT WND Dp L09:38:00 L11:23:00

Windsor Locks, CT WNL Dp L09:44:00 L11:30:00 14:29:00

Springfield, MA SPG Ar 10:10:00 11:55:00 15:00:00

Old Saybrook, CT OSB Dp 9:06:00 13:12:00

New London, CT NLC Dp 9:26:00 11:00:00 13:32:00

Mystic, CT MYS Dp 11:12:00

Westerly, RI WLY Dp 11:22:00

Kingston, RI KIN Dp 9:57:00 11:37:00 14:04:00

Providence, RI PVD Dp 10:17:00 11:55:00 14:23:00

Route 128, MA RTE Dp D10:48:0 D12:28:0 D14:58:0

Boston, MA (Back Bay) BBY Dp D10:59:0 D12:39:0 D15:09:0

Boston, MA (South) BOS Ar 11:05:00 12:45:00 15:15:00
APPENDIX—EXISTING RAIL SCHEDULE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-7 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Existing Regional Rail Northbound Schedule (2 of 4) 

 

Northbound REG REG LD REG AT REG REG SHUTTLE REG REG

86 184 20 174 52 84 176 476 186 94

Stations RVR-BOS WAS-NYP NOL-NYP NFK-BOS SFA-LOR RVR-NYP LYH-BOS NHV-SPG WAS-NYP NPN-BOS

FREQUENCY M-F M-F Daily M-F Daily M-F M-F M-F M-F M-F

Hamlet, NC HAM Dp 

Southern Pines, NC SOP Dp 

Charlotte, NC CLT Dp 1:46:00 

Harrisburg, NC XHB Dp x

Kannapolis, NC KAN Dp

Salisbury, NC SAL Dp 2:32:00 

Lexington, NC XLX Dp x 

High Point, NC HPT Dp 3:16:00 

Greensboro, NC GRO Dp 3:44:00 

Burlington, NC BNC Dp 

Hillsborough, NC XHG Dp

Durham, NC DNC Dp 

Cary, NC CYN Dp 

Raleigh, NC RGH Ar

Raleigh, NC RGH Dp 

Henderson, NC XHN Dp 

La Crosse, VA XLC Dp 

Fayetteville, NC FAY Dp 

Selma-Smithfield, NC SSM Dp 

Wilson, NC WLN Dp 

Rocky Mount, NC RMT Dp 

Norfolk, VA NFK Dp 5:00:00

Petersburg, VA PTB Dp 6:27:00

Newport News, VA NPN Dp 9:15:00

Williamsburg, VA WBG Dp 9:37:00

Richmond Main Street, VA RVM Dp 10:29:00

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Ar 7:03:00 11:04:00

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Dp 6:00:00 7:10:00 8:00:00 11:09:00

Ashland, VA ASD Dp 6:13:00 7:23:00 8:14:00 11:22:00

Fredericksburg, VA FBG Dp 6:56:00 8:10:00 8:58:00 12:08:00

Quantico, VA QAN Dp 7:16:00 8:32:00 9:18:00 12:28:00

Woodbridge, VA WDB Dp 7:28:00 8:46:00

Lorton, VA LOR Ar 8:59:00

Danville, VA DAN Dp 4:43:00 

Roanoke, VA RNK Dp 

Lynchburg, VA LYH Dp 5:56:00 7:38:00

Charlottesville, VA CVS Dp 7:09:00 8:52:00

Culpeper, VA CLP Dp 8:01:00 9:44:00

Manassas, VA MSS Dp 8:35:00 10:19:00

Burke Center, VA BCV Dp 10:36:00

Alexandria, VA ALX Dp 7:52:00 9:32:00 9:15:00 9:51:00 11:05:00 13:07:00

L'Enfant, DC XLN Dp D8:03:00 D09:30:0 D11:14:0

Washington, DC WAS Ar 8:15:00 9:53:00 9:44:00 10:15:00 11:20:00 13:35:00

Washington, DC WAS Dp 8:40:00 9:20:00 10:18:00 10:20:00 11:02:00 12:02:00 13:02:00 14:02:00

New Carrolton, MD NCR Dp 8:52:00 R09:32:0 10:32:00 11:14:00 12:14:00 R13:14:0 14:14:00

BWI Airport, MD BWI Dp 9:07:00 9:48:00 10:47:00 11:29:00 12:29:00 13:29:00 14:30:00

Baltimore, MD BAL Dp 9:23:00 10:04:00 10:55:00 11:04:00 11:44:00 12:45:00 13:45:00 14:46:00

Aberdeen, MD ABE Dp

Newark, DE NRK Dp 14:21:00

Wilmington, DE WIL Dp 10:09:00 10:50:00 11:44:00 11:49:00 12:28:00 13:31:00 14:33:00 15:33:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Ar 10:33:00 11:14:00 12:08:00 12:13:00 12:51:00 13:55:00 14:56:00 15:56:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Dp 10:39:00 11:17:00 12:15:00 12:17:00 12:54:00 13:58:00 15:01:00 16:01:00

Trenton, NJ TRE Dp 11:08:00 11:45:00 12:41:00 12:46:00 13:23:00 14:24:00 15:30:00 16:28:00

Princeton Jct, NJ PJC Dp

New Brunswick, NJ NBK Dp

Metropark, NJ MET Dp 11:31:00 12:08:00 13:09:00 13:43:00 14:47:00 15:52:00

Newark Airport, NJ EWR Dp 13:20:00 16:05:00 16:59:00

Newark, NJ NWK Dp 11:47:00 12:22:00 13:25:00 13:26:00 13:59:00 15:01:00 16:12:00 17:05:00

New York, NY NYP Ar 12:05:00 12:40:00 13:46:00 13:44:00 14:20:00 15:19:00 16:30:00 17:22:00

New York, NY NYP Dp 12:30:00 14:00:00 15:30:00 17:42:00

New Rochelle, NY NRO Dp 14:27:00 15:57:00

Stamford, CT STM Dp 13:18:00 14:48:00 16:18:00 18:31:00

Bridgeport, CT BRP Dp 15:16:00 16:46:00

New Haven, CT NHV Ar 14:08:00 15:42:00 17:12:00 19:21:00

New Haven, CT NHV Dp 14:10:00 15:44:00 17:34:00 19:32:00

New Haven, CT NHV Dp 17:20:00

Wallingford, CT WFD Dp 17:35:00

Meriden, CT MDN Dp 17:43:00

Berlin, CT BER Dp 17:55:00

Hartford, CT HFD Dp 18:10:00

Windsor, CT WND Dp L18:20:00

Windsor Locks, CT WNL Dp L18:26:00

Springfield, MA SPG Ar 18:50:00

Old Saybrook, CT OSB Dp 16:15:00 18:04:00 20:06:00

New London, CT NLC Dp 14:52:00 16:35:00 18:24:00 20:24:00

Mystic, CT MYS Dp

Westerly, RI WLY Dp 16:56:00 18:44:00

Kingston, RI KIN Dp 15:26:00 17:12:00 18:57:00 20:57:00

Providence, RI PVD Dp 15:47:00 17:30:00 19:19:00 21:16:00

Route 128, MA RTE Dp D16:17:0 D18:09:0 D19:54:0 D21:50:0

Boston, MA (Back Bay) BBY Dp D16:28:0 D18:25:0 D20:06:0 D22:02:0

Boston, MA (South) BOS Ar 16:35:00 18:30:00 20:12:00 22:10:00
APPENDIX—EXISTING RAIL SCHEDULE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-8 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Existing Regional Rail Northbound Schedule (3 of 4) 

 

Northbound SHUTTLE REG LD REG REG REG REG NC REG NC REG NC REG

494 148 92 134 178 196 136 80 74 76

Stations NHV-SPG WAS-SPG MIA-NYP WAS-NYP WAS-BOS WAS-NYP WAS-SPG CLT-NYP CLT-RGH CLT-RGH

FREQUENCY M-F M-F Daily RF M-F M-R F M-F M-F M-F

Hamlet, NC HAM Dp 6:14:00

Southern Pines, NC SOP Dp 6:52:00

Charlotte, NC CLT Dp 7:00:00 12:00:00 17:15:00

Harrisburg, NC XHB Dp xxx

Kannapolis, NC KAN Dp 7:25:00 12:25:00 17:40:00

Salisbury, NC SAL Dp 7:43:00 12:41:00 17:56:00

Lexington, NC XLX Dp xxx

High Point, NC HPT Dp 8:17:00 13:14:00 18:29:00

Greensboro, NC GRO Dp 8:39:00 13:34:00 18:49:00

Burlington, NC BNC Dp 9:01:00 13:55:00 19:10:00

Hillsborough, NC XHG Dp xxx

Durham, NC DNC Dp 9:42:00 14:33:00 19:48:00

Cary, NC CYN Dp 8:08:00 10:02:00 14:53:00 20:08:00

Raleigh, NC RGH Ar 8:34:00 10:17:00 15:11:00 20:26:00

Raleigh, NC RGH Dp 8:45:00 10:25:00

Henderson, NC XHN Dp 

La Crosse, VA XLC Dp 

Fayetteville, NC FAY Dp

Selma-Smithfield, NC SSM Dp 11:00:00

Wilson, NC WLN Dp 11:30:00

Rocky Mount, NC RMT Dp 10:03:00 11:52:00

Norfolk, VA NFK Dp

Petersburg, VA PTB Dp 11:28:00 13:17:00

Newport News, VA NPN Dp

Williamsburg, VA WBG Dp

Richmond Main Street, VA RVM Dp

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Ar 12:07:00 14:05:00

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Dp 12:16:00 14:12:00

Ashland, VA ASD Dp

Fredericksburg, VA FBG Dp 15:06:00

Quantico, VA QAN Dp 15:28:00

Woodbridge, VA WDB Dp

Lorton, VA LOR Ar

Danville, VA DAN Dp 

Roanoke, VA RNK Dp

Lynchburg, VA LYH Dp 

Charlottesville, VA CVS Dp

Culpeper, VA CLP Dp

Manassas, VA MSS Dp

Burke Center, VA BCV Dp

Alexandria, VA ALX Dp D14:04:0 16:02:00

L'Enfant, DC XLN Dp

Washington, DC WAS Ar D14:38:0 D16:29:0

Washington, DC WAS Dp 15:02:00 D15:10:0 15:30:00 16:02:00 17:05:00 17:05:00 D17:15:0

New Carrolton, MD NCR Dp R15:14:0 R16:14:0 R17:17:0 R17:17:0

BWI Airport, MD BWI Dp 15:29:00 15:54:00 16:29:00 17:32:00 17:32:00

Baltimore, MD BAL Dp 15:45:00 D15:47:0 16:09:00 16:45:00 17:48:00 17:48:00 D17:51:0

Aberdeen, MD ABE Dp 16:08:00

Newark, DE NRK Dp 16:45:00

Wilmington, DE WIL Dp 16:35:00 D16:40:0 16:58:00 17:31:00 18:36:00 18:36:00 D18:43:0

Philadelphia, PA PHL Ar 16:59:00 D17:05:0 17:22:00 17:55:00 19:00:00 19:00:00 D19:07:0

Philadelphia, PA PHL Dp 17:02:00 D17:10:0 17:33:00 17:58:00 19:02:00 19:02:00 D19:11:0

Trenton, NJ TRE Dp 17:29:00 D17:40:0 18:26:00 19:30:00 19:30:00 D19:42:0

Princeton Jct, NJ PJC Dp 19:39:00 19:39:00

New Brunswick, NJ NBK Dp 19:54:00 19:54:00

Metropark, NJ MET Dp 17:51:00 20:05:00 20:05:00

Newark Airport, NJ EWR Dp 18:02:00 18:57:00 20:17:00 20:17:00

Newark, NJ NWK Dp 18:10:00 D18:23:0 D18:37:0 19:03:00 D20:22:0 D20:22:0 D20:24:0

New York, NY NYP Ar 18:30:00 18:50:00 18:56:00 19:21:00 20:41:00 20:41:00 20:47:00

New York, NY NYP Dp 18:45:00 19:50:00 20:57:00

New Rochelle, NY NRO Dp 19:15:00 20:25:00 21:29:00

Stamford, CT STM Dp 19:35:00 20:45:00 21:49:00

Bridgeport, CT BRP Dp 20:03:00 21:13:00 22:17:00

New Haven, CT NHV Ar 20:29:00 21:40:00 22:44:00

New Haven, CT NHV Dp 20:44:00 21:42:00 22:59:00

New Haven, CT NHV Dp 19:30:00

Wallingford, CT WFD Dp 19:44:00 20:59:00 23:13:00

Meriden, CT MDN Dp 19:52:00 21:07:00 23:23:00

Berlin, CT BER Dp 20:02:00 21:17:00 23:33:00

Hartford, CT HFD Dp 20:16:00 21:31:00 23:47:00

Windsor, CT WND Dp L20:25:00 L21:41:00 23:56:00

Windsor Locks, CT WNL Dp L20:30:00 L21:49:00 0:02:00

Springfield, MA SPG Ar 20:55:00 22:20:00 0:30:00

Old Saybrook, CT OSB Dp 22:13:00

New London, CT NLC Dp 22:35:00

Mystic, CT MYS Dp 22:48:00

Westerly, RI WLY Dp 22:59:00

Kingston, RI KIN Dp 23:16:00

Providence, RI PVD Dp 23:37:00

Route 128, MA RTE Dp D00:12:0

Boston, MA (Back Bay) BBY Dp D00:24:0

Boston, MA (South) BOS Ar 0:30:00
APPENDIX—EXISTING RAIL SCHEDULE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-9 Ridership Forecasting Technical Report 

Existing Regional Rail Northbound Schedule (4 of 4) 

Northbound REG LD REG LD REG REG

138 50 188 90 198 66

Stations WAS-NYP CHI-NYP WAS-NYP SAV-NYP WAS-NYP NPN-BOS

FREQUENCY M-F Daily M-F Daily M-F M-F

Hamlet, NC HAM Dp

Southern Pines, NC SOP Dp

Charlotte, NC CLT Dp

Harrisburg, NC XHB Dp

Kannapolis, NC KAN Dp

Salisbury, NC SAL Dp

Lexington, NC XLX Dp

High Point, NC HPT Dp

Greensboro, NC GRO Dp

Burlington, NC BNC Dp

Hillsborough, NC XHG Dp

Durham, NC DNC Dp

Cary, NC CYN Dp

Raleigh, NC RGH Ar

Raleigh, NC RGH Dp

Henderson, NC XHN Dp

La Crosse, VA XLC Dp

Fayetteville, NC FAY Dp 13:05:00

Selma-Smithfield, NC SSM Dp 13:52:00

Wilson, NC WLN Dp 14:24:00

Rocky Mount, NC RMT Dp 14:52:00

Norfolk, VA NFK Dp

Petersburg, VA PTB Dp 16:20:00

Newport News, VA NPN Dp 17:20:00

Williamsburg, VA WBG Dp 17:41:00

Richmond Main Street, VA RVM Dp 18:30:00

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Ar 17:04:00 18:55:00

Richmond Staples Mill, VA RVR Dp 17:14:00 19:00:00

Ashland, VA ASD Dp 19:13:00

Fredericksburg, VA FBG Dp 19:57:00

Quantico, VA QAN Dp 20:22:00

Woodbridge, VA WDB Dp

Lorton, VA LOR Ar

Danville, VA DAN Dp

Roanoke, VA RNK Dp

Lynchburg, VA LYH Dp

Charlottesville, VA CVS Dp 15:19:00

Culpeper, VA CLP Dp 16:35:00

Manassas, VA MSS Dp 17:10:00

Burke Center, VA BCV Dp

Alexandria, VA ALX Dp D17:59:0 19:07:00 20:55:00

L'Enfant, DC XLN Dp

Washington, DC WAS Ar D18:19:0 D19:42:0 21:20:00

Washington, DC WAS Dp 18:05:00 D18:42:0 19:10:00 D20:05:0 21:05:00 22:10:00

New Carrolton, MD NCR Dp R18:17:0 R19:22:0 R21:17:0 22:22:00

BWI Airport, MD BWI Dp 18:33:00 19:37:00 21:32:00 22:40:00

Baltimore, MD BAL Dp 18:50:00 D19:16:0 19:54:00 D20:38:0 21:48:00 22:56:00

Aberdeen, MD ABE Dp 20:16:00 22:09:00

Newark, DE NRK Dp

Wilmington, DE WIL Dp 19:36:00 D20:05:0 20:43:00 D21:29:0 22:37:00 23:46:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Ar 20:00:00 D20:26:0 21:07:00 D21:55:0 23:01:00 0:09:00

Philadelphia, PA PHL Dp 20:02:00 D20:32:0 21:10:00 D22:05:0 23:04:00 0:14:00

Trenton, NJ TRE Dp 20:29:00 D21:02:0 21:37:00 D22:35:0 23:33:00 0:48:00

Princeton Jct, NJ PJC Dp 20:38:00

New Brunswick, NJ NBK Dp

Metropark, NJ MET Dp 20:56:00 D21:59:0 D23:53:0 1:15:00

Newark Airport, NJ EWR Dp 21:07:00

Newark, NJ NWK Dp 21:12:00 D21:38:0 D22:14:0 D23:15:0 D00:10:0 1:32:00

New York, NY NYP Ar 21:30:00 D21:58:0 22:34:00 23:36:00 0:30:00 1:50:00

New York, NY NYP Dp 2:40:00

New Rochelle, NY NRO Dp

Stamford, CT STM Dp 3:25:00

Bridgeport, CT BRP Dp

New Haven, CT NHV Ar 4:20:00

New Haven, CT NHV Dp 4:40:00

New Haven, CT NHV Dp

Wallingford, CT WFD Dp

Meriden, CT MDN Dp

Berlin, CT BER Dp

Hartford, CT HFD Dp

Windsor, CT WND Dp

Windsor Locks, CT WNL Dp

Springfield, MA SPG Ar

Old Saybrook, CT OSB Dp 5:13:00

New London, CT NLC Dp 5:34:00

Mystic, CT MYS Dp 5:48:00

Westerly, RI WLY Dp 6:00:00

Kingston, RI KIN Dp 6:17:00

Providence, RI PVD Dp 6:56:00

Route 128, MA RTE Dp D07:34:0

Boston, MA (Back Bay) BBY Dp D07:53:0

Boston, MA (South) BOS Ar 7:58:00
J-108

SURVEY TECHNICAL REPORT J-2
Survey Technical Report 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail i Survey Technical Report 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1-1 

2. SURVEY METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................... 2-1

2.1 Origin/Destination Information .............................................................................................. 2-1

2.2 Trip Information ......................................................................................................................... 2-1

2.3 Traveler Information ................................................................................................................. 2-1

2.4 Choice-Based Conjoint for Reliability ..................................................................................... 2-1

2.4 Choice-Based Conjoint for Travel Model ............................................................................... 2-2

2.5 Weighting .................................................................................................................................... 2-3

3. SURVEY ADMINISTRATION ................................................................................................. 3-1

3.1 Overview of Survey Administration ....................................................................................... 3-1

3.2 On-Line Data Collection ........................................................................................................... 3-1

3.3 Airport Pilot ................................................................................................................................ 3-3

4. TRAVELER PROFILE ................................................................................................................ 4-1

4.1 Mode Share ................................................................................................................................. 4-1

4.2 Traveler Demographics ............................................................................................................. 4-2

4.3 Origin-Destination Analysis ..................................................................................................... 4-5

5. TRIP PROFILE FOR OVERALL TRAVEL MARKET ............................................................ 5-1

6. DETAILED PROFILE OF RAIL AND BUS USERS ............................................................... 6-1

6.1 Trip Purpose .............................................................................................................................. 6-1

6.2 Transfers ...................................................................................................................................... 6-1

6.3 Rail Boarding Station ................................................................................................................. 6-2

6.4 Usage Characteristics at Each Richmond Amtrak Station ................................................... 6-2

6.5 Origin and Destination Location of Rail and Bus Trips in the Richmond Area ............... 6-5

6.6 Station Use by Home- and Non-Home-Trip End .................................................................. 6-6

7. TRAVELER SENSITIVITY TO TRIP ATTRIBUTES .............................................................. 7-1

APPENDIX .............................................................................................................................................. A-1
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 1-1 Survey Technical Report 

INTRODUCTION 

RSG, on behalf of the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation (VDRPT) and the 

Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), recently conducted a survey of rail, bus, air, and 

automobile passengers traveling between Richmond, Virginia and points north. The central 

purpose of the survey was to better understand the behavior of travelers along the Washington, 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail (DC2RVA) corridor. 

Some data from the survey will be used to inform a ridership model, which will in turn be used 

to estimate ridership on any future high-speed rail connection between Richmond and 

Washington, D.C. RSG will present those estimates, and the details of the ridership model, in a 

separate report. 

To capture riders on all modes simultaneously, we conducted an online survey through Research 

Now. Research Now is an online sample provider that maintains a diverse panel of potential 

respondents. Respondents were screened to include only those who had made a trip along the 

DC2RVA corridor in the past year. 

To get a more detailed picture of rail and bus travelers along the corridor, we also conducted a 

field survey of travelers on Amtrak and Megabus. This approach ensured a representative sample 

of existing rail and bus riders on the corridor. The current Amtrak-riding population is 

particularly important, as current riders are likely candidates to transition to a new rail option. 

1 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-1 Survey Technical Report 

SURVEY METHODOLOGY 

The field survey was administered using tablet computers furnished by the study team. For the 

online survey, respondents used their own computer or device. A virtually identical survey 

instrument was used regardless of mode or data collection method (field or online). Built-in 

branching logic ensured that passengers only got questions that made sense for their trip; for 

example, Amtrak passengers selected from a list of Amtrak stations for their boarding location, 

while Megabus passengers selected from a list of bus stops. 

The questionnaire, which can be seen in the Appendix of this report, covered a range of topics, 

described in brief below. 

2.1 ORIGIN/DESTINATION INFORMATION 

Respondents were asked to provide their origin and destination locations through a map or 

search bar. These locations were coded to latitude/longitude coordinates in real time through a 

Google maps-based application. Respondents were also asked to select their boarding and 

alighting locations from a list of possible stops or stations. 

2.2 TRIP INFORMATION 

Respondents were asked several questions about their specific trip, including departure time, 

expected door-to-door travel time, trip purpose, party size, and their use of a car while away from 

home. 

2.3 TRAVELER INFORMATION 

Respondents provided their home ZIP code and basic demographic information. Additionally, 

they reported their frequency taking similar trips by mode, their reasons for varying their travel 

mode (when applicable), and whether or not they have regular access to a vehicle. 

2.4 CHOICE-BASED CONJOINT FOR RELIABILITY 

To help us estimate the value of on-time performance, respondents were asked to choose between 

two hypothetical trains which varied in cost and on-time performance. Each respondent 

completed two such experiments. Figure 2-1 shows an example of one experiment. 

2 
SURVEY METHODOLOGY 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-2 Survey Technical Report 

FIGURE 2-1: EXAMPLE RELIABILITY EXPERIMENT 

2.4 CHOICE-BASED CONJOINT FOR TRAVEL MODEL 

The last section of the questionnaire was a series of experiments asking respondents to select one 

of three travel modes. Values for travel time, access and egress mode, fare, and frequency 

(number of daily trains, buses, or flights) were based on the individual respondent’s real world 

options; for example, the access time may have been based on the distance between the 

respondent’s home and the nearest airport. All of these values, shown in orange in Figure 2-2, 

were varied across experiments. This allows us to model the importance of each attribute 

separately. 

FIGURE 2-2: EXAMPLE MODE CHOICE EXPERIMENT 
SURVEY METHODOLOGY 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 2-3 Survey Technical Report 

2.5 WEIGHTING 

For some analyses, the online survey data are weighted by trip frequency. The purpose of the 

weighting is to make the sample better resemble an in-field sample. While respondents who 

travel frequently may only make up a small percentage of all travelers, they may make up a much 

larger percentage of all trips (and vice versa). For analyses relating to demographics or mode 

split, the weighted data provide better estimates. 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 3-1 Survey Technical Report 

SURVEY ADMINISTRATION 

This section describes the administration of each component of the DC2RVA survey. 

3.1 OVERVIEW OF SURVEY ADMINISTRATION 

The team collected 2,998 complete questionnaires in two rounds of surveying. The first round 

took place aboard Amtrak trains traveling between Richmond and Washington. The second 

round took place entirely online. Records with nonsensical travel information (for example, 

where the reported origin and destination were in the same place) were eliminated. Table 3-1 

shows the number of complete surveys by mode and data collection method.

TABLE 3-1: COMPLETE SURVEYS BY MODE AND DATA COLLECTION METHOD 

Mode Online Field Total 

Airplane 110 0 110 

Bus 36 161 197 

Car 1753 0 1753 

Train 104 834 938 

Total 2003 995 2998 

3.2 ON-LINE DATA COLLECTION 

The bulk of the data collection took place online, through an online sample provider called 

Research Now®. Online sample providers recruit participants to research panels. Research Now 

does not recruit panelists for any particular survey topic, which minimizes the risk of selfselection bias. Respondents complete the questionnaire on their own computer or device using a 

survey instrument prepared by RSG. 

We targeted respondents based on geography. First, only respondents living in ZIP codes roughly 

corresponding to the highlighted regions in Figure 3-1 and Figure 3-2 were invited to participate. 

Subsequently, respondents were asked a whether they had made a trip to somewhere in the 

opposite region in the past 12 months (again, based on the shaded regions in the figures below). 

As a shorthand, any respondent that traversed the I-95 corridor between Alexandria, VA and 

Fredericksburg, VA in the past year was included. This recruitment method enabled us to survey 

all types of travelers along the corridor, including the largest group, drivers. 

3 
SURVEY ADMINISTRATION 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 3-2 Survey Technical Report 

FIGURE 3-1: SOUTHERN SURVEY REGION 

FIGURE 3-2: NORTHERN SURVEY REGION 

On both Megabus and Amtrak, surveys were administered through tablet computers. When 

respondents were unable or unwilling to use the tablets themselves, staff administered the survey 
SURVEY ADMINISTRATION 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 3-3 Survey Technical Report 

as an interview and recorded answers through the same survey instrument. This ensured that the 

respondents who were not comfortable using a mobile device were included in the sample. In 

rare cases, when a potential respondent specifically requested to take the survey on their own 

device, staff provided a postcard with a link to the survey. 

FIGURE 3-3: SURVEY ON A TABLET COMPUTER 

Amtrak surveying took place over five days, from Tuesday, October 13th through Saturday, 

October 17th, 2015. A total of 22 trains were surveyed, with 2-3 staff working on each train. In 

order to generate the most representative sample possible, trains were sampled throughout all 

times of day and across all Amtrak lines. 

Megabus surveying took place over a full week, from Sunday, October 18th, through Saturday, 

October 24th, 2015. Every Megabus departure during that week was surveyed, totaling 35 

sampled buses. Staff were not able to count all boarding passengers, but we estimate that the 

response rate was in excess of 50 percent. 

3.3 AIRPORT PILOT 

A pilot study to determine the feasibility of sampling air passengers in situ took place on 

Thursday, October 22nd, 2015, at Richmond International Airport. Two staff members spent 

roughly two hours at intercepting arriving passengers at the foot of the escalator connecting the 

terminal level to ground level. This approach proved difficult, both because passengers from 

eligible origin airports could not be distinguished and because the steady flow of pedestrian 

traffic made it an unnatural place to stop. For most of this time, the staff opted to distribute 

postcards rather than attempt to administer the survey on a tablet. Relatively few passengers (less 

than 10 percent) accepted postcards, and none went on to complete the survey. 

The rest of the time was spent near the baggage claim, where arriving passengers could be more 

easily targeted by origin. This approach was only slightly more effective, generating three 

complete surveys over about four hours. For the most part, passengers were able to collect their 

bags almost immediately after arriving at the baggage claim and were unwilling to stay in the 

airport to complete the survey. 
SURVEY ADMINISTRATION 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 3-4 Survey Technical Report 

After the pilot, we determined a full-scale survey effort in the airport to be infeasible without 

gaining admission to the inside-security areas of the airport. Ultimately, the study team decided 

to pursue responses from air passengers through the online survey alone. 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-1 Survey Technical Report 

TRAVELER PROFILE 

This section presents key results from the DC2RVA on-line survey that describe the 

characteristics of all (regardless of mode) survey participants who traveled between the north 

and south survey regions. 

4.1 MODE SHARE 

The vast majority of survey respondents traveled by car. At 75 percent of all trips, the car was 

used three times as often as train, bus, and airplane combined (Figure 4-1). Respondents living in 

the southern region traveled more often by VRE, while those in the northern region traveled more 

often by Amtrak (Figure 4-2). This appears reasonable given the option for residents of the 

southern region to drive north to VRE trains destined for Washington, D.C. Travelers heading 

south are more likely to take Amtrak to a station where they can then walk or ride in a taxi to 

their destination. 

FIGURE 4-1: OVERALL CORRIDOR TRAVELER MODE SHARES 

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 %

Amtrak train

VRE train

Bus

Airplane

Car

12%

6%

4%

3%

75%

4 
TRAVELER PROFILE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-2 Survey Technical Report 

FIGURE 4-2: CORRIDOR TRAVELER MODE SHARES BY SURVEY REGION 

4.2 TRAVELER DEMOGRAPHICS 

The sample was made up of roughly equal numbers of male and female respondents (Figure 4-

3). Travelers 25-34 years old (33 percent) and 35-44 years old (21 percent) made up over half of all 

survey respondents (Figure 4-4). 

FIGURE 4-3: DISTRIBUTION OF CORRIDOR TRAVELERS BY GENDER 

North South

0

20

40

60

80

100

%

15%

6%

11%

6%

73% 78% Car

Airplane

Bus

VRE train

Amtrak train

Female

51%

Male

49%
TRAVELER PROFILE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-3 Survey Technical Report 

FIGURE 4-4: DISTRIBUTION OF CORRIDOR TRAVELERS BY AGE 

Over a third of respondents came from households with annual incomes in the $50,000-$99,999 

range (Figure 4-5). Notably, 75 percent of bus-travelers had household income lower than $50,000 

while more than 75 percent of travelers on all other modes had household income of $50,000 or 

greater (Figure 4-6). Household incomes were also found to be higher amongst travelers living in 

the southern region than those in the northern region (Figure 4-7), with the highest median 

incomes in the Fredericksburg and Richmond metro areas (Figure 4-8). 

FIGURE 4-5: DISTRIBUTION OF CORRIDOR TRAVELERS BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME 

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 %

Under 16

16–24

25–34

35–44

45–54

55–64

65–74

75 or older

0%

5%

33%

21%

15%

12%

11%

2%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 %

Less than $49,999

$50,000-$99,999

$100,000-$149,999

$150,000 and above

22%

36%

25%

16%
TRAVELER PROFILE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-4 Survey Technical Report 

FIGURE 4-6: DISTRIBUTION OF CORRIDOR TRAVELERS BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND MODE 

FIGURE 4-7: DISTRIBUTION OF CORRIDOR TRAVELERS BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND 

SURVEY REGION 

Amtrak train VRE train Bus Airplane Car

0

20

40

60

80

100

%

22% 19%

75%

14% 19%

47%

9%

25%

40%

26%

59%

47%

23%

19% 16% 13% 18%

$150,000 and above

$100,000-$149,999

$50,000-$99,999

Less than $49,999

North South

0

20

40

60

80

100

%

26%

15%

39%

31%

20%

36%

15% 18%

$150,000 and above

$100,000-$149,999

$50,000-$99,999

Less than $49,999
TRAVELER PROFILE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-5 Survey Technical Report 

FIGURE 4-8: DISTRIBUTION OF CORRIDOR TRAVELERS BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND 

METRO AREA 

4.3 ORIGIN-DESTINATION ANALYSIS 

Over 70 percent of all southbound survey trips within the study corridor originate in the New 

York City or Washington, D.C. metro areas. Of all southbound survey trips (i.e. trips made by 

people living in the New York, Philadelphia, Wilmington, Baltimore, or Washington areas), 

nearly half are destined for the Richmond metro area Table 4-1). Of all northbound survey trips 

within the study corridor (i.e. trips made by people living in the Richmond, Fredericksburg, or 

Hampton Roads areas), nearly half originate from the Hampton Roads metro area. The great 

majority of northbound trips, 62 percent, end in Washington, D.C. (Table 4-2). 

TABLE 4-1: SOUTHBOUND SURVEY TRIP DISTRIBUTION BY METRO AREA

DESTINATION Fredericksburg Richmond Hampton 

Roads 

Total 

HOME 

New York City 5% 16% 14% 34% 

Philadelphia 5% 7% 4% 16% 

Wilmington, DE 1% 1% 1% 3% 

Baltimore 1% 5% 4% 10% 

Washington, D.C. 12% 17% 8% 37% 

Total 23% 45% 32% 100% 
TRAVELER PROFILE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 4-6 Survey Technical Report 

TABLE 4-2: NORTHBOUND SURVEY TRIP DISTRIBUTION BY METRO AREA

DESTINATION New York 

City 

Philadelphia Wilmington, 

DE 

Baltimore Washington 

D.C. 

Total 

HOME 

Fredericksburg 1% 1% 0% 0% 20% 22% 

Richmond 5% 4% 0% 4% 19% 33% 

Hampton Roads 12% 4% 0% 5% 23% 45% 

Total 19% 8% 1% 10% 62% 100% 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-1 Survey Technical Report 

TRIP PROFILE FOR OVERALL TRAVEL MARKET 

This section presents results from the on-line survey describing the nature of overall (all mode) 

travel market. 

Nearly half of all non-auto trips (44 percent) began with the traveler driving to their primary 

mode of transportation (Figure 5-1). While only 7 percent of travelers accessed their primary 

mode of transportation via public transportation (i.e., upon leaving home on their outbound leg), 

24 percent of travelers finished their trip on public transportation (Figure 5-2). 

FIGURE 5-1: DISTRIBUTION OF NON-AUTO CORRIDOR TRIPS BY ACCESS (HOME-END) 

MODES 

0 10 20 30 40 %

Walk

Drive and park

Get dropped off

Public transportation

Taxi or car service (e.g., Uber)

18%

44%

19%

7%

11%

5 
TRIP PROFILE FOR OVERALL TRAVELER MARKET 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-2 Survey Technical Report 

FIGURE 5-2: DISTRIBUTION OF NON-AUTO CORRIDOR TRIPS BY EGRESS (NON-HOME-END) 

MODES 

Figure 5-3 shows that respondents more often traveled in the study corridor for leisure/vacation 

or family events (48 percent combined) than for commuting or business purposes (40 percent 

combined). Notably, 74 percent of bus trips were for leisure/vacation or family events while only 

32 percent of Amtrak train trips were for those purposes (Figure 5-4). 

FIGURE 5-3: DISTRIBUTION OF CORRIDOR TRIPS BY TRAVEL PURPOSE 

0 5 10 15 20 %

Walk

Drive

Public transportation

Get picked up

Taxi or car service (e.g., Uber)

18%

20%

24%

18%

20%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 %

Commute to usual workplace

Business

Leisure/Vacation

Traveling to/from school, college, or

university

Family event (e.g., wedding, funeral)

Other

22%

18%

33%

6%

15%

7%
TRIP PROFILE FOR OVERALL TRAVELER MARKET 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-3 Survey Technical Report 

FIGURE 5-4: DISTRIBUTION OF CORRIDOR TRIPS BY TRAVEL PURPOSE AND MODE 

Almost 70 percent of all trips were made alone or with one other person (Figure 5-5). Forty 

percent of travelers make their trip once a week or more (Figure 5-6). 

FIGURE 5-5: DISTRIBUTION OF CORRIDOR TRIPS BY PARTY SIZE 

Airplane VRE train Bus Amtrak

train

Car

0

20

40

60

80

100

%

58%

10%

39%

18%

40%

18%

19%

50%

20%

10%

26%

36%

19%

14%

11%

64%

6%

15%

9%

Other

Family event (e.g., wedding,

funeral)

Traveling to/from school,

college, or university

Leisure/Vacation

Business

Commute to usual workplace

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 %

None (I am traveling alone)

1 other person

2 other people

3 other people

4 or more other people

37%

32%

17%

7%

6%
TRIP PROFILE FOR OVERALL TRAVELER MARKET 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 5-4 Survey Technical Report 

FIGURE 5-6: DISTRIBUTION CORRIDOR TRIPS BY TRIP FREQUENCY 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 6-1 Survey Technical Report 

DETAILED PROFILE OF RAIL AND BUS USERS 

This section presents results from the survey conducted aboard Amtrak trains and at the 

Richmond Megabus stop, and describes the nature of the intercity rail and bus travel markets. 

6.1 TRIP PURPOSE 

The distribution of trip purposes varies between current corridor rail and bus users. Bus 

passengers are much more likely to be attending a family event (such as a wedding) or traveling 

to or from school or college (Figure 6-1). Amtrak users are more likely to be commuters or 

business travelers, though the most likely trip purpose for Amtrak users is leisure/vacation. 

FIGURE 6-1: DISTRIBUTION CORRIDOR TRIPS BY TRIP FREQUENCY 

6.2 TRANSFERS 

Nearly 9 percent of the survey respondents were making a trip that required a transfer. 

6 
DETAILED PROFILE OF RAIL AND BUS USERS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 6-2 Survey Technical Report 

6.3 RAIL BOARDING STATION 

Among surveyed passengers traveling along the DC2RVA corridor, Richmond Staples Mill Road 

was the most used train station, followed by Union Station in Washington D.C. and Penn Station 

in New York (Figure 6-2). Nearly 8 percent were travelling from an area south of the study 

corridor (which terminates in Petersburg). 

FIGURE 6-2: SURVEYED RIDERSHIP BY STATION 

6.4 USAGE CHARACTERISTICS AT EACH RICHMOND AMTRAK 

STATION 

There are two Amtrak stations in the Richmond area, including a suburban station (Staples Mill 

Road Station) and a downtown station (Main Street Station). The two stations serve slightly 

different populations, and passengers access the stations in different ways. 

Figure 6-3 shows combined access/egress mode information for passengers from each station. 

Passengers boarding or alighting at Staples Mill Road Station were much more likely than 

passengers using Main Street Station to have driven themselves or been dropped off or picked 

up to or from the station. Passengers using Main Street Station are more likely to have taken a 

taxi and far more likely to have walked. 
DETAILED PROFILE OF RAIL AND BUS USERS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 6-3 Survey Technical Report 

Figure 6-4 and Figure 6-5 show trip purpose for boarding and alighting passengers at the two 

Richmond stations. Passengers departing from Main Street station are more likely to be traveling 

for business while those arriving at the station are more likely to be traveling for leisure/vacation 

or family events. This disparity shows that the downtown station is more often used for the nonhome end of trips while the suburban station is more often used for home end trips. 

FIGURE 6-3: ACCESS/EGRESS MODE BY RICHMOND RAIL STATION 
DETAILED PROFILE OF RAIL AND BUS USERS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 6-4 Survey Technical Report 

FIGURE 6-4: BOARDING PASSENGER TRIP PURPOSE BY RICHMOND RAIL STATION 

FIGURE 6-5: ALIGHTING PASSENGER TRIPS PURPOSE BY RICHMOND RAIL STATION 
DETAILED PROFILE OF RAIL AND BUS USERS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 6-5 Survey Technical Report 

6.5 ORIGIN AND DESTINATION LOCATION OF RAIL AND BUS TRIPS 

IN THE RICHMOND AREA 

Figure 6-6 and Figure 6-7 show the origin and destination locations within Richmond for bus and 

Amtrak users traveling to or from the Northeast. Residents of the Richmond area are represented 

by orange dots, and non-residents by blue dots. As one might expect, non-residents are more 

likely to have downtown origins and destinations. Residents are more like to begin or end their 

trips over a broader region. 

FIGURE 6-6: TRIP ORIGINS IN THE RICHMOND AREA 
DETAILED PROFILE OF RAIL AND BUS USERS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 6-6 Survey Technical Report 

FIGURE 6-6: TRIP DESTINATIONS IN THE RICHMOND AREA 

6.6 STATION USE BY HOME- AND NON-HOME-TRIP END 

In order to determine which Amtrak station was the respondent’s “home” station, we compared 

the home ZIP code (provided by the respondent) to the location of the respondent’s origin and 

destination. If the origin or destination fell within the ZIP code, or within 35 miles of the centroid 

of that ZIP code, it was assigned as the respondent’s home location. About 76 percent of the 

records had an identifiable home location; others were likely making trips between two nonhome locations. 

The results of this analysis show that downtown stations, like Main Street Station in Richmond, 

are much more likely to serve the non-home end of a trip. Suburban stations like Staples Mill 

Road Station in Richmond, are more likely to serve people traveling between their home in 

Richmond and points north (Table 6-1). 
DETAILED PROFILE OF RAIL AND BUS USERS 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 6-7 Survey Technical Report 

TABLE 6-1: DISTRIBUTION OF HOME- AND NON-HOME TRIP ENDS BY STATION

Station Home end 

(boarding or 

alighting at home) 

Non-home end 

(boarding or alighting 

away from home) 

Home end 

% 

Non-home end 

% 

Boston MA 4 2 67% 33% 

Providence RI 1 3 25% 75% 

New York NY – Penn Station 33 87 28% 73% 

Newark NJ 12 13 48% 52% 

Philadelphia – 30th St. Station 28 42 40% 60% 

Wilmington DE 11 10 52% 48% 

Baltimore MD – Penn Station 6 27 18% 82% 

BWI 2 3 40% 60% 

Washington D.C. – Union Station 

or L'Enfant Plaza 

59 188 24% 76% 

Alexandria VA 16 47 25% 75% 

Fredericksburg VA 53 6 90% 10% 

Ashland VA 22 8 73% 27% 

Williamsburg VA 29 26 53% 47% 

Richmond VA – Staples Mill Rd. 

Station 

190 47 80% 20% 

Richmond VA – Main St. Station 15 20 43% 57% 

Petersburg VA 1 2 33% 67% 

Norfolk VA 21 13 62% 38% 

Newport News 33 25 57% 43% 

South of corridor 70 50 58% 42% 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 7-1 Survey Technical Report 

TRAVELER SENSITIVITY TO TRIP ATTRIBUTES 

Data collected from the reliability and mode choice experiments described in Section 2.0 were 

used to estimate an initial set of passenger sensitivities to changes in fare, travel time, and other 

service attributes. It is important to note that the final ridership model will likely not adhere 

strictly to these sensitivities. Rather, they will serve as a starting point for model calibration that 

will then compare these results to revealed preferences (based on actual Amtrak experience). As 

needed, model parameters will be adjusted to match actual (revealed) sensitivities. 

The model specifications adhere to the framework of the NEC FUTURE model (version dated 

April of 2015). Data from respondents commuting to their typical workplaces was excluded, as 

there were few commuters in the sample and the NEC FUTURE Model has separate coefficients 

for commuters. 

The coefficients in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 have, in most cases, been expressed in terms of 

marginal rates of substitution for line haul travel time. This makes them easy to interpret; for 

example, business travelers would trade an additional 28 minutes of travel time for increasing 

the frequency of available daily trips from four to five. In the case of on-time performance, the 

coefficients for which come from a separate model, the marginal rates of substitution are reported 

in dollars. 

Where applicable, the comparable sensitivities from the NEC FUTURE model are also provided 

in the tables. 

TABLE 7-1: SENSITIVITIES FOR BUSINESS TRAVELERS

Attribute Units 

NEC 

FUTURE DC2RVA 

Cost (Premium Modes) Minutes of Line Haul Travel Time / Dollar of Total 

Trip Cost 0.664 1.005 

Cost (Non-Premium Modes) Minutes of Line Haul Travel Time / Dollar of Total 

Trip Cost 1.455 3.441 

Access/Egress Time Minutes of Line Haul Travel Time / Minute of 

Access/Egress Time 0.791 1.729 

Frequency Minutes of Line Haul Travel Time / Additional Daily 

Train 27.963 28.039 

On-time performance (1%) Dollars / Percentage Point Increase in On-time 

Performance N/A $1.14 

7 
TRAVELER SENSITIVITY TO TRIP ATTRIBUTES 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail 7-2 Survey Technical Report 

TABLE 7-2: SENSITIVITIES FOR NON-BUSINESS TRAVELERS

Attribute Units 

NEC 

FUTURE DC2RVA 

Cost (Cost <$50) Minutes of Line Haul Travel Time / Dollar 10.727 5.464 

Cost (Cost $50-$99) Minutes of Line Haul Travel Time / Dollar 5.273 1.869 

Cost (Cost $100-$149) Minutes of Line Haul Travel Time / Dollar 2.545 1.128 

Cost (Cost >=$150) Minutes of Line Haul Travel Time / Dollar 1.818 0.807 

Access/Egress Time Minutes of Line Haul Travel Time / Minute of 

Access/Egress time 0.982 3.314 

Frequency Minutes of Line Haul Travel Time / Additional Daily 

Train 0.056 10.943 

On-time performance (1%) Dollars / Percentage Point Increase in On-time 

Performance N/A $0.64 
D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-1 Survey Technical Report 

APPENDIX 

This appendix presents the questionnaire used for the DC2RVA survey. 

A 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-2 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-3 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-4 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-5 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-6 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-7 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-8 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-9 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-10 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-11 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-12 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-13 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-14 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-15 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-16 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-17 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-18 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-19 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-20 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-21 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-22 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-23 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-24 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-25 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-26 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-27 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-28 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-29 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-30 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-31 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-32 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-33 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-34 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-35 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-36 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-37 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-38 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-39 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-40 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-41 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-42 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-43 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-44 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-45 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-46 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-47 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-48 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-49 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-50 Survey Technical Report 
APPENDIX- QUESTIONNAIRE 

D.C. to Richmond Southeast High Speed Rail A-51 Survey Technical Report