Fax: (609) 292-7695



### April 1, 2009

The Honorable George Pavlou Acting Regional Administrator United States Environmental Protection Agency – Region 2 290 Broadway- 26 th 

### Floor New York, New York 10007-1866

Dear Acting Regional Administrator Pavlou:

The purpose of this letter is to provide you with New Jersey’s recommendations for ozone nonattainment area boundaries for the 0.075 ppm ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS). Ambient air qu ality data indicates the entire State should be designated as not meeting the health standard. Further, USEPA analyses 1 

### indicate that 11 states significantly contribute to unhealthy ozone air quality in Ne w Jersey at the old 0.08 ppm standard. New Jersey’s recommendations ar e summarized below.

New Jersey recommends that the USEPA consider a large regional nonattainment area, including the states of Connecticut, Delawa re, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia (S ee Factor 10 of Enclosure 1).

If ultimately the USEPA chooses not to embrace this regional approach, the State recommends the 0.075 ppm 8-hour ozone nonattainment area boundaries be the same as the existing 0.08 ppm 8-hour boundaries. The USEPA’ s traditional “Nine Fact or Analysis” supports this option (See Enclosure 2).

• Designate the New York-Northern New Jersey -Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) nonattainment area the same as that for the 0.08 ppm 8-hour ozone standard to include Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passai c, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren counties in New Jersey; and

• Designate the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlant ic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD ) nonattainment area the same as that for the 0.08 ppm 8-hour ozon e standard to include Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Mercer, Ocean, and Salem counties in New Jersey.

1 See Factor 10 of New Jersey’s analysis D EPARTMENT OF E NVIRONMENTAL P ROTECTION J ON S. C ORZINE P.O. B OX 402 M ARK N. M AURIELLO Governor Trenton, NJ 08625-0402 Acting Commissioner Phone: (609) 292-2885

New Jersey is an Equal Opportunity Employer l Printed on Recycled Paper and Recyclable

### Enclosure 1



## Recommended Regional 8-Hour Oz one Nonattainment Area Boundaries

C o n n e c t i c u t

### Enclosure 2



## Recommended New Jersey 8-Hour Oz one Nonattainment Area Boundaries

The New Jerse y Portion of a NY-NJ- CT Nonattainment Area

The New Jerse y Portion of a PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area

## Enclosure 3



# Designation of Nonattainment Areas in New Jersey for the 2008 Revised Ozone National Ambient Air Qua lity Standards

Ten Factor Analysis

March 12, 20092 

### Ten Factor Analysis for the Designation of Nonattainment Areas in New Jersey for the 2008 Revised Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards

Introduction

The United States Environmental Protec tion Agency (USEPA) revised the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) on March 12, 2008. 1 

### The primary ozone standard was lowered from 0.08 part s per million (ppm) to 0.075 ppm. The secondary standard was strengthened to ma ke it equal to the primary standard. According to Section 107(d)(1)(A) of the Federal Clean Air Act (42 U.S.C. § 7407 (d)(1)(A)), states have one year from the time the new standard is effective to submit a recommendation for designating no nattainment areas to the USEPA for consideration. The USEPA then has one y ear to issue the fi nal nonattainment area designations.

The USEPA issued guidance for determining the boundaries of ozone nonattainment areas on December 4, 2008. 2 

### The analysis is based on an evaluation the following nine factors:

• 

### Air quality data

• 

### Emissions data

• 

### Population density and degree of urbanization

• 

### Traffic and commuting patterns

• 

### Growth rates and patterns

• 

### Meteorology

• 

### Geography/topography

• 

### Jurisdictional boundaries

• 

### Level of control of emission sources

The USEPA finalized attainment/nonattain ment designations for the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS on June 15, 2004. The en tire state of New Jersey is associated w ith two multistate nonattainment areas, the New York-N orthern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) nonattainment area and the Philadelphia-Wi lmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) nonattainment area. The NY-NJ-CT nonattain ment area includes the New Jersey counties of: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunter don, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren. The PA-NJ-DE-MD nonattainment area includes the New Jersey counties of: Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Mercer, Ocean, and Salem.

New Jersey considered the composition of th e existing ozone nonattainment areas in its analysis to determine if there should be any changes to these areas due to current data. The NJDEP recommends that the areas design ated as nonattainment areas under the 1997 8-hour ozone standard also be designated the 2008 revised ozone nonattainment areas.

1 73 Fed . Reg . 16436 (March 27, 2008).

2 December 4, 2008 Memorandum from Robert J. Meye rs on “Area Designations for the 2008 Revised Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards.”3 

# New Jersey Recommendations for Designation Multi-State Ozone Nonattainment Areas

PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area

NY-NJ-CT Nonattainment Area4 

## Ten Factor Analysis for Determin ing Nonattainment Area Boundaries in Designations for the 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS

Factor 1: Air Quality Data

The air quality analysis is an examination of ozone air quality monitoring data, including the daily design value calculated for each area based on air quality data for a 3-year period. Design values for 2005-2007 and 2006-2008 3 

### were analyzed for this factor.

Table 1-A : Ozone Design Values for the Ne w York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area 4

County O 3 2005 - 2007 Design Value (ppm) Met NAAQS (0.075 ppm) 2005- 2007? O 3 2006 - 2008 Design Value (ppm) Met NAAQS (0.075 ppm) 2006 - 2008?

Fairfield, CT 0.094 No 0.088 No Middlesex, CT 0.092 No 0.087 No New Haven, CT 0.093 No 0.088 No Bergen, NJ 0.089* No Not Available N/A Essex, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A Hudson, NJ 0.090 No 0.086 No Hunterdon, NJ 0.089 No 0.086 No Middlesex, NJ 0.091 No 0.088 No Monmouth, NJ 0.088 No 0.086 No Morris, NJ 0.086 No 0.086 No Passaic, NJ 0.083 No 0.079 No Somerset, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A Sussex, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A Union, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A Warren, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A Bronx, NY 0.075 Yes 0.076 No Kings, NY No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A Nassau, NY No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A New York, NY Not Available N/A Not Available N/A Queens, NY 0.079 No 0.077 No Richmond, NY 0.089 No 0.081 No Rockland, NY No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A Suffolk, NY 0.091 No 0.088 No Westchester, NY 0.091 No 0.086 No

*Because a 2007 de sign value was not availabl e, an average of 2005 - 2006 data is presented.

3 The 2006-2008 design values had not been certified at the time of this analysis

4 Source: NJDEP Bureau of Air Monitoring and USEPA5 

### All of the monitors in the New York-N orthern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) nonattainment area violated the new 2008 ozone NAAQS of 0.075 ppm, with the exception of Bronx, NY (for the 2005-2007 data ). The highest design value in the nonattainment area is located in Fairfield, CT. The hi ghest design value in the nonattainment area in New Jersey is located in Middlesex County. The preliminary 2006-2008 design values show an overall decrease in emissi ons. The most significant decrease is in Richmond County, NY ( 0.009 ppm). The 2006-2008 design values show decreased emissions for five of the New Jersey monitors. A 2006-2008 design value was not available for Bergen County, and the desi gn value stayed the same for Morris County.

Table 1-B : Ozone Design Values for the Phila delphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area 5

County O 3 2005 - 2007 Design Value (ppm) Met NAAQS (0.075 ppm) 2005- 2007? O 3 2006 - 2008 Design Value (ppm) Met NAAQS (0.075 ppm) 2006 - 2008?

Bucks, PA 0.092 No 0.092 No Chester, PA 0.085 No 0.082 No Delaware, PA 0.085 No 0.083 No Montgomery, PA 0.086 No 0.084 No Philadelphia, PA 0.091 No 0.089 No Atlantic, NJ 0.081* No Not Available N/A Burlington, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A Camden, NJ 0.089 No 0.087 No Cape May, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A Cumberland, NJ 0.084 No 0.082 No Gloucester, NJ 0.087 No 0.087 No Mercer, NJ 0.091 No 0.087 No Ocean, NJ 0.092 No 0.087 No Salem, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A Cecil, MD 0.093 No 0.090 No Kent, DE 0.081 No 0.081 No New Castle, DE 0.083 No 0.080 No Sussex, DE 0.082 No 0.080 No

*Because a 2007 de sign value was not availabl e, an average of 2005 - 2006 data is presented.



### All of the monitors in the Philadelphia- Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) nonattainment area violated the new 2008 ozone NAAQS of 0.075 ppm. The highest design value in the nonattainment area is lo cated in Cecil County, MD. The preliminary 2006-2008 design values show an overall decrease in emissions . The most significant decrease is the Ocean County, NJ monito r (0.005 ppm). The 2006-2008 design values show decreased emissions for four of th e New Jersey monitors. A 2006-2008 design value was not available for Atlantic County, and the design value stayed the same for Gloucester County.

5 Source: NJDEP Bureau of Air Monitoring and USEPA6 

## Factor 2: Emissions Data

The following tables show total estimated i nventories, excluding biogenic emissions (in tons per year) for the New York-Norther n New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) and Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (P A-NJ-DE-MD) nonattainment areas. (Data Source: 2002 MANE-VU Modeling Inventory).

Table 2-A : Emissions in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJCT) Nonattainment Area

County 2002 NO

x (tons) Proj. 2009 NO

x (tons) 02-09 % change 2002 VOC (tons) Proj. 2009 VOC (tons) 02-09 % change

Fairfield, CT 31,712 22,151 -30% 36,184 26,071 -28% Middlesex, CT 7,757 4,478 -42% 10,500 8,044 -23% New Haven, CT 29,642 19,069 -36% 34,472 26,314 -24% Bergen, NJ 26,840 16,862 -37% 34,703 24,607 -29% Essex, NJ 24,594 14,123 -43% 24,583 17,659 -28% Hudson, NJ 22,047 10,866 -51% 16,206 12,187 -25% Hunterdon, NJ 6,613 3,942 -40% 9,700 7,508 -23% Middlesex, NJ 26,835 16,704 -38% 33,188 25,357 -24% Monmouth, NJ 17,925 11,291 -37% 26,452 18,756 -29% Morris, NJ 15,708 9,586 -39% 24,046 17,502 -27% Passaic, NJ 9,836 6,019 -39% 16,648 12,505 -25% Somerset, NJ 10,365 6,535 -37% 15,987 12,078 -24% Sussex, NJ 3,799 2,495 -34% 10,268 8,356 -19% Union, NJ 18,850 11,746 -38% 22,723 16,941 -25% Warren, NJ 5,250 3,065 -42% 7,825 6,449 -18% Bronx, NY 16,056 11,101 -31% 23,174 16,771 -28% Kings, NY 28,296 21,083 -25% 39,632 31,349 -21% Nassau, NY 38,626 24,814 -36% 45,411 32,915 -28% New York, NY 40,284 30,330 -25% 38,921 32,186 -17% Queens, NY 42,659 27,580 -35% 42,825 33,996 -21% Richmond, NY 10,099 7,607 -25% 12,388 10,843 -12% Rockland, NY 14,165 9,072 -36% 9,820 7,293 -26% Suffolk, NY 64,398 39,672 -38% 73,451 49,862 -32% Westchester, NY 48,464 20,357 -58% 33,071 24,160 -27%



### The projected NO x 

### emissions decrease from 34%-51% in the New Jersey counties of the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area. Projected VOC emissions decreased from 18%-29% in these counties.7 

### Table 2-B : Emissions in the Philadelphia-W ilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DEMD) Nonattainment Area

The projected NOx emissions decreased from 10%-61% in the New Jersey counties in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City nonattainment area. Projected VOC emissions decrease from 15%-25% in these counties. County 2002 NO

x (tons) Proj. 2009 NO

x

(tons) 02-09 % change 2002 VOC (tons) Proj. 2009 VOC (tons) 02-09 % change

Bucks, PA 20,195 14,400 -29% 24,491 20,787 -15% Chester, PA 18,779 13,642 -27% 18,897 15,498 -18% Delaware, PA 23,838 20,642 -13% 18,264 15,199 -17% Montgomery, PA 25,341 17,906 -29% 31,587 26,162 -17% Philadelphia, PA 31,157 24,315 -22% 38,022 31,477 -17% Atlantic, NJ 8,331 5,719 -31% 16,026 12,247 -24% Burlington, NJ 18,522 12,233 -34% 19,915 14,860 -25% Camden, NJ 15,372 9,201 -40% 17,377 12,882 -26% Cape May, NJ 8,118 7,291 -10% 10,882 9,141 -16% Cumberland, NJ 6,971 5,919 -15% 8,450 6,782 -20% Gloucester, NJ 14,515 9,494 -35% 16,892 14,409 -15% Mercer, NJ 25,520 9,957 -61% 13,627 9,829 -28% Ocean, NJ 10,421 7,300 -30% 28,313 21,383 -24% Salem, NJ 6,622 4,964 -25% 5,066 4,122 -19% Cecil, MD 5,037 2,841 -44% 6,523 5,320 -18% Kent, DE 10,336 8,554 -17% 6,772 5,490 -19% New Castle, DE 31,544 23,104 -27% 21,148 16,180 -23% Sussex, DE 16,883 18,001 7% 13,200 10,438 -21%8 

### Location of Sources :

The following tables show the number of NO x 

### and VOC reporting facilities in each county in New Jersey. The information was gathered from the USEPA AirData system, and is from the 2002 National Emission Inventory (NEI). 6



### Table 2-C : NO x 

### and VOC Facilities in the Ne w York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area

Pollutant Emissions (tpy) Percent of Total (NJ Emissions) County Number of Facilities Percent of Total Facilities

(in NJ) NO
x VOC NO
x VOC

Bergen, NJ 60 9.04 956 650 1.86 4.54 Essex, NJ 52 7.83 2,102 579 4.09 4.04 Hudson, NJ 37 5.57 9,783 1,375 19.04 9.59 Hunterdon, NJ 13 1.96 491 135 0.95 0.94 Middlesex, NJ 108 16.27 3,576 3,333 6.96 23.26 Monmouth, NJ 18 2.71 240 150 0.47 1.05 Morris, NJ 37 5.57 283 236 0.55 1.64 Passaic, NJ 29 4.37 122 232 0.24 1.62 Somerset, NJ 28 4.22 307 180 0.60 1.26 Sussex, NJ 6 0.90 38.5 36.2 0.07 0.25 Union, NJ 60 9.04 3,885 2,842 7.56 19.84 Warren, NJ 11 1.66 525 471 1.02 3.29



### The largest number of NO x 

### and VOC reporting facilities in New Jersey in the NY-NJ-CT nonattainment area are in Middlesex Count y (108), while the smallest number of facilities is in Sussex County (6). The count y with the highest percentage of reported NO x 

### emissions is Hudson. The county with the highest percentage of reported VOC emissions is Middlesex, followed closely by Union. The count y with the lowest percentage of reported NO x 

### and VOC emissions is Sussex.

6 http://www.epa.gov/air/data/geo sel.html (accessed 1/22/09)9 

### Table 2-D : NO x 

### and VOC Facilities in the Phila delphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area

Pollutant Emissions (tpy) Percent of Total (NJ Emissions) County Number of Facilities Percent of Total Facilities

(in NJ) NO
x VOC NO
x VOC

Atlantic, NJ 13 1.96 129 44.8 0.25 0.31 Burlington, NJ 35 5.27 1,263 595 2.46 4.15 Camden, NJ 35 5.27 783 355 1.52 2.48 Cape May, NJ 8 1.20 3,819 38.7 7.43 0.27 Cumberland, NJ 21 3.16 1,761 91.9 3.43 0.64 Gloucester, NJ 33 4.97 4,642 2,627 9.03 15.82 Mercer, NJ 28 4.22 13,029 251 25.35 1.75 Ocean, NJ 17 2.56 39 5 59.5 0.77 0.42 Salem, NJ 15 2.26 3,263 405 6.35 2.83



### The largest number of NO x 

### and VOC reporting facilities in New Jersey in the PA-NJ-DEMD nonattainment area are lo cated in Burlington and Camden counties (both have 35 facilities), followed closely by Gloucester (33 facilities) and Mercer (28 facilities). The county with the highest percentage of reported NO x 

### emissions is Mercer. The county with the highest percentage of reported VOC emissions is Gloucester. The county with the lowest percentage of both NO x 

### and VOC emissions is Atlantic, followed by Ocean.10 

## Factor 3: Population/Population Density 7



### Table 3-A : 2007 Population/Population Density in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area

County 2007 Population 2007 Population Density (population per sq mi)
Fairfield, CT 895,015 1,430 Middlesex, CT 164,150 445 New Haven, CT 845,494 1,396 Bergen, NJ 895,744 3,825 Essex, NJ 776,087 6,146 Hudson, NJ 598,160 12,812 Hunterdon, NJ 129,348 301 Middlesex, NJ 788,629 2,546 Monmouth, NJ 642,030 1,360 Morris, NJ 488,475 1,042 Passaic, NJ 492,115 2,656 Somerset, NJ 323,552 1,062 Sussex, NJ 151,478 291 Union, NJ 524,658 5,080 Warren, NJ 109,737 307 Bronx, NY 1,373,659 32,683 Kings, NY 2,528,050 35,803 Nassau, NY 1,306,533 4,557 New York, NY 1,620,867 70,595 Queens, NY 2,270,338 20,783 Richmond, NY 481,613 8,236 Rockland, NY 296,483 1,702 Suffolk, NY 1,453,229 1,593 Westchester, NY 951,325 2,198



### The top three counties with th e highest population in this nonattainment area are Kings, Queens, and New York counties. The top three counties with the highest population density in the nonattainment area are New York, Kings, and Bronx counties. The top three New Jersey counties with the highest population in the nona ttainment area are Bergen, Middlesex, and Essex. The top thre e New Jersey counties with the highest population density in the nonattainment ar ea are Hudson, Essex and Union. The population densities of the remaining New Jers ey counties in the nonattainment area are significantly lower. The three counties with the lowest population in the nonattainment area are Warren, Hunterdon, and Sussex counties in New Jersey. The three counties with the lowest population density in the nonatta inment area are Sussex, Hunterdon, and Warren counties in New Jersey.

7 Data Source for 2007 Population and Population Density: U.S. Census Bureau and New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development (US Census Data Accessed 1/2/09, Dept. of Labor Data Accessed 1/5/09)11 

### Table 3-B : 2007 Population/Population Density in the Philadelphia-WilmingtonAtlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area

County 2007 Population 2007 Population Density (population per sq mi)
Bucks, PA 621,144 1,023 Chester, PA 486,345 643 Delaware, PA 554,399 3,010 Montgomery, PA 776,172 1,607 Philadelphia, PA 1,449,634 10,731 Atlantic, NJ 270,644 482 Burlington, NJ 446,817 555 Camden, NJ 513,769 2,311 Cape May, NJ 96,422 378 Cumberland, NJ 155,544 318 Gloucester, NJ 285,753 880 Mercer, NJ 365,449 1,618 Ocean, NJ 565,493 889 Salem, NJ 66,016 195 Cecil, MD 99,695 286 Kent, DE 152,255 258 New Castle, DE 528,218 1,239 Sussex, DE 184,291 197



### The county of Philadelphia has the highest population and population density in the nonattainment area. This indicates the lik elihood of population-based emissions to contribute to monitored violations.

To a much lesser extent, Camden County is also more urbanized than the majority of the remaining counties in the Philadelphia-Wilmin gton-Atlantic City nonattainment area. The top three New Jersey counties with the highest population in the nonattainment area are Ocean, Camden, and Burlington. Th e top three New Jersey counties with the highest population density in the nonattainment area are Camden, Mercer, and Ocean. The three counties with the lowest population in the nonatta inment area are Salem and Cape May counties in New Jersey and Cec il County in Maryland. The three counties with the lowest population de nsity in the nonattainment area are Sussex and Kent counties in Delaware and Cecil County in Maryland.12 

## Factor 4: Traffic a nd Commuting Patterns 8



### The total Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) for 2005 is provided for each county in millions of miles. The analysis of this factor l ooks at the number of co mmuters who drive to major counties within the metropolitan area and counties with the highest violation monitors.

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Isl and (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area

Table 4-A shows the commuting pa tterns to the major counties in the nonattainment area, as well as the New Jersey counties with th e highest monitored design values (Hudson and Middlesex). The largest numbe r of commuters to the New Jersey counties in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainm ent area are from counties in the New York City area.

Table 4-B shows the number of commuters from the New York counties in the nonattainment area to the New Jersey countie s in the nonattainment area. The three highest numbers of commuters to New Jers ey counties in the nonattainment area from New York counties in the nonattainment area are from New York, Kings, and Rockland counties. The top two New Jersey counties with the highest number of commuters from New York counties in the nonattainment ar ea are Bergen and Hudson. The remaining New Jersey counties in the nonattainment ar ea have a significantly lower number of commuters from the New York counties in th e nonattainment area. The two New Jersey counties with the lowest number of commut ers from the New York counties in the nonattainment area are Sussex and Hunterdon counties.

The county with the highest VMT in the nona ttainment area is Suffolk County, NY. The two New Jersey counties with the highest VM T in the nonattainment area are Middlesex and Bergen counties.

Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area

Table 4-C shows commuting patterns to the major counties in the nonattainment area, as well as the New Jersey counties with the highest monitored design values (Ocean and Mercer) were evaluated.

8 Factor 4 Data sources:

2005 VMT Data: USEPA, http://w ww.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/pm/docs/20 05_vmt_county_level.xls (Accessed 1/14/09);

2000 US Census Journey to Work Data: http://www.census.gov/populati on/www/cen2000/commuting/inde x.html (Accessed 1/14/09)

USEPA, “Where People Work”: http://www.epa.gov /ttn/naaqs/ozone/areas/mis c/work_us.htm (Accessed 1/14/09)13 

### The highest number of commut ers to a New Jersey county fr om a county in another state in the nonattainment area is from Bucks C ounty, PA to Mercer County, NJ. There are also a large number of commuters from Bu cks County, PA to Burlington and Middlesex counties.

A smaller, but still significant, number of commuters travel fr om Philadelphia County, PA to Camden County, NJ. Philadelphia also has a large numbe r of commuters to Burlington County, NJ.

Table 4-D shows the number of commuters from the Pennsylvania counties in the nonattainment area to the New Jersey coun ties in the nonattainment area. The two highest numbers of commuters to New Jersey counties in the nonatta inment area are from Bucks and Philadelphia counties. The top th ree New Jersey counties with the highest number of commuters from Pennsylvania coun ties in the nonattainment area are Mercer, Camden and Burlington. The three New Jersey counties with the lowest number of commuters from Pennsylvania counties in the nonattainment area are Ocean, Cumberland, and Salem counties. Cape May County also has a low number of commuters from the Pennsylvania co unties in the nonattainment area.

Philadelphia County, PA has the highest VM T in the nonattainment area, followed by Monmouth County, NJ.

Based on review of the commuting pattern data from both nonattainment areas, there is not a significant patte rn of commuting between the New York-Northern New JerseyLong Island nonattainment area and the Ph iladelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City nonattainment area.14Table 4-A: Commuting Patterns in the New York-Northern NewJersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment AreaCounty VMT (Millions) #Commuters toNew York, NY#Commuters to Bronx,NY# Commuters toHudson, NJ#Commuters toMiddlesex, NJ#Commuters to NewHaven, CTFairfield, CT 7,648.71 24,831 1,258 344 71 21,900Middlesex, CT 1,786.21 158 5 6 17 12,833New Haven, CT 6,947.70 1,584 183 11 40 290,098Bergen, NJ 9,123.92 61,253 5,353 25,444 4,149 74Essex, NJ 5,611.09 28,076 782 16,193 9,717 10Hudson, NJ 2,543.18 58,423 1,214 121,352 5,476 23Hunterdon, NJ 928.70 1,176 7 581 4,133 0Middlesex, NJ 8,014.09 25,765 355 8,706 201,811 51Monmouth, NJ 6,229.76 22,425 313 6,165 30,146 32Morris, NJ 5,397.82 11,516 268 4,806 4,263 15Passaic, NJ 3,302.32 8,402 473 6,468 2,216 5Somerset, NJ 2,702.02 6,243 87 2,203 26,794 14Sussex, NJ 888.93 1,449 94 1,137 734 13Union, NJ 4,704.31 16,305 417 8,251 26,504 11Warren, NJ 1,342.37 562 5 311 1,366 0Bronx, NY 4,720.60 159,664 168,903 2,515 518 56Kings, NY 4,899.46 341,155 11,365 2,927 1,759 112Nassau, NY 11,919.85 94,485 6,274 1,653 345 90New York, NY 4,378.20 631,132 20,775 5,541 1,847 178Queens, NY 7,838.83 346,268 18,373 4,215 1,182 138Richmond, NY 2,002.10 53,249 1,095 3,017 2,929 11Rockland, NY 2,731.10 17,025 6,245 1,007 300 56Suffolk, NY 19,814.88 41,121 2,614 624 157 113Westchester, NY 9,166.01 79,643 27,053 1,131 236 34315Table 4-B: Commuters from the New York Counties in the NY-NJ-CTNonattainment Area to the New Jersey Counties in theNY-NJ-CT Nonattainment AreaNew Jersey Counties in the NY-NJ-CT Nonattainment Area

Bergen Essex Hudson Hunterdon Middlesex Monmouth Morris Passaic Somerset Sussex UnionTotalBronx 4,366 1,141 2,515 23 518 69 328 569 146 30 58610,291Kings 3,345 2,341 5,927 76 1,759 579 812 579 515 37 1,56717,537Nassau 1,337 426 1,653 5 345 88 235 207 76 4 1874,563New York 7,258 2,876 5,541 106 1,847 291 1,413 940 442 219 96721,900Queens 4,275 1,944 4,215 10 1,182 253 613 677 253 10 78014,212Richmond 1,081 1,621 3,017 73 2,929 586 589 343 582 48 1,48612,355Rockland 12,687 866 1,007 17 300 38 867 1,141 118 14 35017,405Suffolk 564 338 624 7 157 87 146 102 69 33 1802,307

New York Counties in the NY-NJ-CT Nonattainment AreaWestchester 3,221 614 1,131 11 236 52 362 400 93 12 3276,459Total 38,134 12,167 25,630 328 9,273 2,043 5,365 4,958 2,294 407 6,43016Table 4-C:Commuting Patterns in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment AreaCounty VMT (Millions) #Commuters toPhiladelphia, PA#Commuters to Delaware,PA#Commuters to Mercer,NJ# Commuters to Ocean,NJ#Commuters to NewCastle, DEBucks, PA 5,249.59 31,892 2,754 20,812 220 493Chester, PA 4,414.36 10,568 17,870 222 23 12,976Delaware, PA 4,011.35 48,151 137,988 345 10 9,002Montgomery, PA 7,526.57 54,576 11,758 1,298 13 1,201Philadelphia, PA 6,499.46 429,667 21,802 1,676 86 1,856Atlantic, NJ 3,234.23 1,359 314 274 822 175Burlington, NJ 4,901.56 17,661 1,771 17,158 2,042 597Camden, NJ 4,668.91 32,961 3,232 2,472 359 1,286Cape May, NJ 909.22 711 24 124 98 109Cumberland, NJ 1,264.16 618 105 64 21 171Gloucester, NJ 2,621.22 13,778 3,179 764 227 1,662Mercer, NJ 2,667.73 1,574 244 112,449 667 139Ocean, NJ 3,366.62 491 118 5,865120,741 45Salem, NJ 1,012.51 615 486 126 6 3,258Cecil, MD 1,192.63 254 373 7 8 14,059Kent, DE 1,435.19 37 125 10 0 6,058New Castle, DE 5,674.40 5,386 8,150 78 13 209,742Sussex, DE 1,842.40 131 61 12 30 1,11917Table 4-D:Commuters from the Pennsylvania Counties in the PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area to the New JerseyCounties in the PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment AreaNew Jersey Counties in the PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area

Atlantic Burlington Camden Cape May Cumberland Gloucester Mercer Ocean SalemTotalBucks172 4,250 2,039 54 42 362 20,812 220 3727,988Chester73 426 539 81 24 411 222 23 1551,954Delaware231 1,306 2,287 118 103 1,251 345 10 2455,896Montgomery181 1,559 1,844 95 66 405 1,298 13 595,520

Pennsylvania Counties in the PANJ-DE-MD Nonattainment AreaPhiladelphia831 5,087 7,196 324 140 1,502 1,676 86 8416,926Total 1,488 12,628 13,905 672 375 3,931 24,353 352 58018 

## Factor 5: Expected Growth 9



### The following tables show an analysis of population growth from 2000-2007 and VMT growth from 1996-2005.

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Isl and (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area

Based upon analysis of this factor, Somerset County was identified as experiencing the highest recent growth in the nonattainment area (from 2006-2007). The three New Jersey counties with the highest population growth from 2000-2007 were Somerset, Warren, and Hunterdon. Essex and Hudson counties experi enced a slight reduction in population growth for both 2006-2007 and 2000-2007.

Middlesex, Morris, Bergen, and Warren coun ties experienced sign ificant VMT growth from 1996-2005, while Hudson, Hunterdon, and Sussex counties experienced a significant reduction in VMT.

9 Factor 5 Data Sources:

Census Data: US Census Bureau – http://www. census.gov and New Jersey Dept. of Labor:

http://lwd.dol.state.nj .us/labor/lpa/dmograph/est/mcd/density.htm (accessed 1/2/09); 1996 VMT Data: USEPA;

2005 VMT Data: USEPA, http://w ww.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/pm/docs/20 05_vmt_county_level.xls (Accessed 1/14/09);19 

### Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area

Based upon analysis of this factor, Glouceste r County has been identified as the New Jersey county in the nonattainment area e xperiencing the highest recent growth (from 2006-2007). Cape May County experienced a s light decrease in pop ulation. The top three New Jersey counties w ith the highest growth fr om 2000-2007 were Gloucester, Ocean, and Atlantic.

Burlington, Atlantic, and Sale m counties experienced signifi cant growth in VMT from 1996-2005 in comparison to the remainder of counties in the nonattainment area. Mercer and Ocean counties experienced a low to moderate reduction in VMT.20Table 5-A: Expected Growth of Population and VMT in theNew York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT)Nonattainment AreaCounty 2000Population2006Population2007PopulationPercent Growth(2006-2007)PercentGrowth (2000-2007)VMT 1996(Millions)VMT 2005(Millions)Percent VMTGrowth (1996-2005)Fairfield, CT 882,567 893,987 895,015 0.1% 1.41% 7,233 7,649 5.75%Middlesex, CT 155,071 163,372 164,150 0.5% 5.85% 1,298 1,786 37.61%New Haven, CT 824,008 843,441 845,494 0.2% 2.61% 6,275 6,948 10.72%Bergen, NJ 884,118 893,217 895,744 0.3% 1.31% 5,993 9,124 52.24%Essex, NJ 792,305 778,333 776,087 -0.3% -2.05% 5,643 5,611 -0.57%Hudson, NJ 608,975 599,755 598,160 -0.3% -1.78% 4,012 2,543 -36.61%Hunterdon, NJ 121,989 129,197 129,348 0.1% 6.03% 1,413 929 -34.27%Middlesex, NJ 750,162 783,371 788,629 0.7% 5.13% 5,073 8,014 57.98%Monmouth, NJ 615,301 641,309 642,030 0.1% 4.34% 4,407 6,230 41.36%Morris, NJ 470,212 487,371 488,475 0.2% 3.88% 3,531 5,398 52.87%Passaic, NJ 490,377 491,956 492,115 0.0% 0.35% 3,102 3,302 6.46%Somerset, NJ 297,490 320,070 323,552 1.1% 8.76% 2,097 2,702 28.85%Sussex, NJ 144,170 151,165 151,478 0.2% 5.07% 1,306 889 -31.93%Union, NJ 522,541 524,816 524,658 0.0% 0.41% 3,582 4,704 31.33%Warren, NJ 102,433 109,431 109,737 0.3% 7.13% 896 1,342 49.82%Bronx, NY 1,332,650 1,371,353 1,373,659 0.2% 3.08% 6,329 4,721 -25.41%Kings, NY 2,465,326 2,523,047 2,528,050 0.2% 2.54% 12,100 4,899 -59.51%Nassau, NY 1,334,544 1,312,756 1,306,533 -0.5% -2.10% 6,800 11,920 75.29%New York, NY 1,537,195 1,612,630 1,620,867 0.5% 5.44% 7,824 4,378 -44.04%Queens, NY 2,229,379 2,264,661 2,270,338 0.3% 1.84% 10,261 7,839 -23.61%Richmond, NY 443,728 478,876 481,613 0.6% 8.54% 1,995 2,002 0.36%Rockland, NY 286,753 295,927 296,483 0.2% 3.39% 1,406 2,731 94.25%Suffolk, NY 1,419,369 1,456,783 1,453,229 -0.2% 2.39% 6,913 19,815 186.63%Westchester,NY923,459 948,080 951,325 0.3% 3.02% 4,895 9,166 87.25%21Table 5-B:Expected Growth of Population and VMT in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD)Nonattainment AreaCounty 2000Population2006Population2007PopulationPercent Growth(2006-2007)PercentGrowth (2000-2007)VMT 1996(Millions)VMT 2005(Millions)Percent VMTGrowth 1996-2005Bucks, PA 597,635 619,407 621,144 0.3% 3.93% 3,818 5,250 37.50%Chester, PA 433,501 486,345 478,990 -1.5% 10.49% 3,105 4,414 42.17%Delaware, PA 550,864 553,732 554,399 0.1% 0.64% 3,638 4,011 10.26%Montgomery,PA750,097 773,866 776,172 0.3% 3.48% 4,818 7,527 56.22%Philadelphia,PA1,517,550 1,453,212 1,449,634 -0.2% -4.48% 10,420 6,499 -37.63%Atlantic, NJ 252,552 269,924 270,644 0.3% 7.16% 2,223 3,234 45.49%Burlington, NJ 423,391 447,552 446,817 -0.2% 5.53% 3,299 4,902 48.58%Camden, NJ 508,932 513,510 513,769 0.1% 0.95% 4,102 4,669 13.82%Cape May, NJ 102,326 97,613 96,422 -1.2% -5.77% 673 909 35.10%Cumberland, NJ 146,438 154,175 155,544 0.9% 6.22% 1,096 1,264 15.34%Gloucester, NJ 254,673 281,314 285,753 1.6% 12.20% 2,055 2,621 27.55%Mercer, NJ 350,761 364,649 365,449 0.2% 4.19% 3,343 2,668 -20.20%Ocean, NJ 510,916561,505 565,493 0.7% 10.68% 3,624 3,367-7.10%Salem, NJ 64,285 65,842 66,016 0.3% 2.69% 691 1,013 46.53%Cecil, MD 85,951 98,674 99,695 1.0% 15.99% 1,035 1,193 15.23%Kent, DE 126,697 147,973 152,255 2.9% 20.17% 1,371 1,435 4.68%New Castle, DE 500,265 524,735 528,218 0.7% 5.59% 4,687 5,674 21.07%Sussex, DE 156,638 180,039 184,291 2.4% 17.65% 1,586 1,842 16.17%22 

## Factor 6: Meteorology

This factor did not play a si gnificant role in the decisi on making process for either nonattainment area. “Climatic Data for the United States”, prepared by NOAA and dated November 1998 was analyzed for this factor. The data analyzed is a summary of annual climatic wind data for the years 1930-1996.

Table 6-A : Prevailing Wind Direction in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area

Location County Prevailing Wind Direction Mean Wind Speed (mph) Peak Gust (mph)

Bridgeport, CT Fairfield WSW 12 69 Newark, NJ Essex NW 10 83 Islip, NY Suffolk WNW 9 N/A Central Park, NY New York NW 8 64 JFK Airport, NY Queens S 12 71 LaGuardia Airport, NY Queens NE 13 77 Suffolk County Air Force Base, NY Suffolk SW 9 76



### Based on an analysis of this factor, the prevailing wind direc tion in the New YorkNorthern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area is predominantly from the northwest and southwest.

Table 6-B : Prevailing Wind Direction in the Ph iladelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area

Location County Prevailing Wind Direction Mean Wind Speed (mph) Peak Gust (mph)

Philadelphia, PA Philadelphia SW 10 69 Atlantic City Airport,
NJ Atlantic WNW 10 81

Trenton, NJ Mercer S 9 64

McGuire Air Force Base, NJ Burlington WNW 7 87

Dover Air Force Base,
DE Kent SSW 7 85

Wilmington, DE New Castle WNW 9 56



### Based on an analysis of this factor, the prevailing wind directi on in the PhiladelphiaWilmington-Atlantic City nona ttainment area is from the northwest and southwest.23 

## Factor 7: Geography/Topography

There are no geographical or topographical boundaries limiting air movements within the airshed in the areas.



## Factor 8: Jurisdictional Boundaries

The current jurisdictional bounda ries for the 1997 8-hour oz one standard nonattainment

areas are adequate for the new 2008 ozone NAAQ S nonattainment areas. The areas include:

For the New York-Northern New Jersey-L ong Island (NY-NJ-CT) nonattainment area, Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren counties in New Jersey; Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Queens, Richmond, Rockland, Suffolk, and We stchester counties in New York; and Fairfield, Middlesex, and New Ha ven counties in Connecticut.

For the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area, Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cu mberland, Gloucester, Mercer, Ocean, and Salem counties in New Jersey; Bucks, Ches ter, Delaware, Montgom ery, and Philadelphia counties in Pennsylvania; Kent , New Castle, and Sussex counties in Delaware; and Cecil County in Maryland.



## Factor 9: Level of Contr ol of Emission Sources

This factor did not play a si gnificant role in the decision ma king process. Emissions of NO x 

### and VOC will continue to decrease because of State and Federal efforts that include Ozone Reasonably Available Control Technol ogy (RACT) Rules and the Federal Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR).

Additionally, New Jersey’s PM 2.5 

### statewide RACT rules are in the process of being updated which will result in additional reductions of direct PM 2.5 

### and its precursors, SO 2 

### and NO x 

### , from major source categories. New Jers ey is also relying upon the USEPA to provide sufficient emission reductions from upwind sources in order to bring the multistate nonattainment areas into attainment with the 2008 ozone health standards and maintain them. Emissions from upwind st ates are discussed further in Factor 10.24 

## Factor 10: Modeling of Regional Ozone Transport

Modeling conducted by the USEPA as a part of the Clean Air Intersta te Rule (CAIR) in 2005 demonstrates that ozone transport constitutes a large portion of projected nonattainment in most eastern areas in 2010. 10 

### Tables 10-A and 10-B show the CAIR results for the counties that were modeled in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) and Philadelphia-Wilm ington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Areas.

Table 10-A : Percent Contribution to 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment due to Transport from Upwind States in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area

2010 Base Nonattainment Counties 2010 Base 8-Hour Ozone (ppb) Percent of 8-Hour Ozone due to

Transport Fairfield, CT 92 80% Middlesex, CT 90 93% New Haven, CT 91 95% Bergen, NJ 86 38% Hunterdon, NJ 89 26% Middlesex, NJ 92 62% Monmouth, NJ 86 65% Morris, NJ 86 63% Richmond, NY 87 55% Suffolk, NY 91 52% Westchester, NY 85 56%



### Greater than 50% of ozone is due to transpor t in 9 of the 11 modeled counties in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area.

10 Technical Support Document for the Final Clean Air Interstate Rule – Air Quality Modeling. USEPA. March 2005.25 

### Table 10-B : Percent Contribution to 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment due to Transport from Upwind States in the Ph iladelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PANJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area

2010 Base Nonattainment Counties 2010 Base 8-Hour Ozone (ppb) Percent of 8-Hour Ozone due to

Transport Bucks, PA 94 35% Chester, PA 85 39% Montgomery, PA 88 47% Philadelphia, PA 90 55% Camden, NJ 91 57% Gloucester, NJ 91 62% Mercer, NJ 95 36% Ocean, NJ 100 82% Cecil, MD 89 35% New Castle, DE 85 37%



### Greater than 50% of ozone is due to transport in 4 of the 10 modeled counties in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City nonatt ainment area. The modeled county in the nonattainment area with the highest percenta ge of ozone due to transport is Ocean County, NJ (82%).

The CAIR modeling conducted by the USEPA also included information on the upwind areas contributing to downwind nonattainment in the Ozone Tran sport Region (OTR) counties. Tables 10-C and 10-D summarize the information from the CAIR modeling (Table VI-5).26 

### Table 10-C : Upwind States That Make a Signif icant Contribution to 8-Hour Ozone in Each Modeled Downwind Nonattainmen t County in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area 11

Downwind County Upwind States Fairfield, CT MD/ DC NJ NY OH PA VA WV

Middlesex, CT MA NJ NJ OH PA VA New Haven, CT MD/ DC NJ NY OH PA VA WV

Bergen, NJ MD/ DC MI OH PA VA WV

Hunterdon, NJ DE MD/ DC OH PA VA WV

Middlesex, NJ DE MD/ DC MI NY OH PA VA WV

Monmouth, NJ DE MD/ DC MI NY OH PA VA WV

Morris, NJ DE MD/ DC MI NY OH PA VA WV

Richmond, NY MD/ DC MI NJ PA VA WV

Suffolk, NY CT DE MD/ DC MI NC NJ OH PA VA WV

Westchester, NY MD/ DC NJ OH PA VA WV

Note: Upwind States are listed alphabetically and not according to order of influence.



### The CAIR modeling demonstrates that th e counties in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area are infl uenced by several states outside of the nonattainment area. Some of the upwind stat es are located outside of the OTR, which shows that ozone transport is an issue on a broad regional scale.

11 Based on several contribution metrics evaluated by the USEPA to show the magnitude of the contribution, the frequency of the contributions, and the relative amount of the total contribution.27 

### Table 10-D : Upwind States That Make a Signific ant Contribution to 8-Hour Ozone in Each Modeled Downwind Nonattai nment County in the PhiladelphiaWilmington-Atlantic City (PA- NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area 12

Downwind County Upwind States Bucks, PA DE MD/ DC MI NJ OH VA WV

Chester, PA DE MD/ DC MI NJ OH VA WV

Montgomery, PA DE MD/ DC NJ OH WV

Philadelphia, PA DE MD/ DC MI NJ OH VA WV

Camden, NJ DE MD/ DC MI OH PA VA WV

Gloucester, NJ DE MD/ DC MI OH PA VA WV

Mercer, NJ DE MD/ DC MI NY OH PA VA WV

Ocean, NJ DE MD/ DC MI NY OH PA VA WV

Cecil, MD MI OH PA VA WV New Castle, DE MD/ DC MI NC OH PA VA WV

Note: Upwind States are listed alphabetically and not according to order of influence.



### The CAIR modeling demonstrates that th e counties in the Philadelphia-WilmingtonAtlantic City nonattainment area are influe nced by several stat es outside of the nonattainment area. Some of the upwind stat es are located outside of the OTR, which shows that ozone transport is an issue on a broad regional scale.

12 Based on several contribution metrics evaluated by the USEPA to show the magnitude of the contribution, the frequency of the contributions, and the relative amount of the total contribution.