Appendix C

Ridership Study
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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Table of Contents

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 2

1.1 Background ............................................................................................................... 2

1.2 Study Area Zone Geography ................................................................................... 2

2. Travel Surveys and Market Data ................................................................................ 6

2.1 Travel Survey Program ............................................................................................ 6

2.2 Highway Survey Program ...................................................................................... 10

2.3 Airport Survey Program ......................................................................................... 10

2.4 On-Board Rail Surveys .......................................................................................... 12

2.5 Multimodal Travel Market Data and Results ........................................................ 13

3. Socio-Economic Data ............................................................................................... 17

4. Multimodal Networks and Service Characteristics ................................................ 19

4.1 Highway Network and Auto Service Characteristics ........................................... 19

4.2 Rail and Air Service Characteristics...................................................................... 20

4.3 Summary of Existing Service Characteristics ...................................................... 21

5. Model Development and Application ...................................................................... 25

5.1 Mode Share Model Framework and Estimation ................................................... 25

5.2 Total Travel Demand Model .................................................................................. 31

6. Rail Alternatives and Service Characteristics ........................................................ 33

7. Ridership and Revenue Projections ........................................................................ 42

8. Appendix ................................................................................................................... 47
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1. Introduction

1.1 Background

This report presents the methodology of AECOM’s effort to develop/update the North Carolina

Southeast Corridor model, also used by Amtrak and Virginia, to address high speed rail

service and feeder line in corridors within North Carolina and Virginia. The corridors to be

evaluated include:

x Southeast High Speed Rail (SEHSR), serving Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond, Hampton

Roads (Newport News and Norfolk), Washington, New York, and other markets

x Southeastern North Carolina (SENC), serving Wilmington, NC and other markets

x Western North Carolina (WNC), serving Asheville and other intermediate markets

x Virginia’s Piedmont Corridor, serving Charlottesville, Lynchburg, and Roanoke

Below is a list of inputs required to complete the analysis:

 Rail schedules for the Silver Meteor/Star, Carolinian, Palmetto, and Piedmont train

services as well as the Northeast Regional trains serving Virginia

 Rail surveys for the Silver Meteor/Star, Carolinian, Palmetto, and Piedmont trains

services as well as the Northeast Regional trains serving Virginia

 Auto surveys for key locations in North Carolina and Virginia throughout the study area

 Air surveys conducted at the Charlotte and Raleigh airports addressing travel to other

places within the study area

 Geographic zone system covering the entire study area

 Highway network connecting all the zones and all the rail stations in the study area

 Socio-economic data for the zone system

 Ridership information for the North Carolina and Virginia state corridor services

 Auto trip table

 Travel characteristics for auto, air and rail

The report describes the study area geography; size and description of the various survey

data used for the analysis; and the highway network used to compute auto travel

characteristics.

1.2 Study Area Zone Geography

The study area consists of the states of North Carolina, Virginia, and portions of key areas in

adjacent states and within the Northeast Corridor, from Washington D.C. to Boston. A

geographic-based zone system was developed for this study area based on the previous

version of the zone system, and was updated to reflect specific areas of interest in the study

area. This zone system defines the geographic level of detail at which the intercity travel

demand forecasting process is applied. The zone system is based on county boundaries, city

boundaries and 5-digit zip code boundaries. Exhibit 1.1 shows the extent of this zone system.

This current study area is focused around the geographic area surrounding Southeast High

Speed Rail (SEHSR), the Southeastern North Carolina (SENC) and Western North Carolina
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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(WNC) corridors. A more aggregate system of 20 districts is shown in Exhibits 1.2 and 1.3,

consisting of a map with groups of zones and a table describing the zones included in each.

Exhibit 1.1 – Travel Analysis Zones
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Exhibit 1.2 – Study Area Summary Districts

Boston

New York

Philadelphia

Baltimore

Washington

D.C

Richmond

Raleigh

Charlotte

Charlottesville-Lynchburg

Virginia

Beach

Rocky

Mount-Goldsboro

Winston

Ashville Salem-Grensboro

- Morgan

Hickory

Rockingham

- S.Pines

Durham-Burlington

Fayettville-Lumberton

Wilmington-Jacksonville

Rural VA

New

England-Providence

New

Bern-Morehead

City

Out of

Study

Area

Out of

Study Area

Out of

Study

Area

Out of

Study

Area

Out

of Study

Area

Out of

Study Area

Out of

Study

Area

Out of

Study Area

Out of

Study

Area
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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Exhibit 1.3: Study Area District Description

District Description Zones Included

Boston Boston Metro--Worcester, MA 1-5,7

New England Bridgeport--New Haven--NorwichProvidence, CT-RI-MA 6,8-14

New York New York Metro NY-NJ-PAAllentown, PA 15-31,33,35

Philadelphia Philadelphia Metro, PA-NJ-DE-MD-

-Trenton-Ewing, NJ 32,34,36-45,50

Baltimore Baltimore Metro, MD 61-63,65,67,76

Washington D.C Washington Metro DC-VA-MD-WV 64,66,68-84,92,95

Richmond Richmond Metro, VA

98,102,103,106-

109,111,120,126,128-135,144,156-

159,175

Rural VA Rural VA-Brunswick 123,174,176,177-179

Raleigh Raleigh Metro-Henderson, NC 267-273,427,428

Charlotte Charlotte Metro-Albemarle-LincolnRockingham-Shelby, NC

232-

235,245,247,250,251,254,255,335

CharlottesvilleLynchburgCharlottesville-Lynchburg-DanvilleRoanoke-Blacksburg, VA86-89,96,97,110,112,117-122,180-

183,185-188,190,191,194,195

Virginia Beach Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport

News, VA-DC 149,150,152,154,155,160-173,303

Rocky Mount Rocky Mount-Wilson-Roanoke

Rapids, NC 278-282

Winston SalemGreensboro

Winston Salem-GreensboroHighpoint-Thomasville-Lexington,

NC

237-242,257-259

Asheville-Hickory Asheville-Hickory-Statesville-Forest

City, NC 213-223,226,234,236,244

Rockingham-S.

Pines

Rockingham-Southern PinesSanford, NC 252,253,256,266

Durham--Burlington Durham-Chapel Hill-Burlington, NC 260-265

FayettevilleLumbertonFayetteville-Lumberton-LaingsburgDunn, NC 274-277,295,296,298

New Bern-Morehead

City

New Bern-Morehead CityWashington-Greenville-Kinston, NC 285-292,311,313

WilmingtonJacksonvilleWilmington-JacksonvilleGoldsboro, NC 288,291,293,294,297,299,300,
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2. Travel Surveys and Market Data

The analysis and prediction of future travel demand begins with a complete description of the

existing travel market in geographic, trip purpose, and other key dimensions. This detailed

travel market information can only be obtained through conducting travel surveys. These

travel surveys also provide a means of assessing traveler responses to changes in the

characteristics of future travel alternatives. The following section of the report documents the

travel survey information and the assembly/analysis of the base travel market data for the

Southeast.

2.1 Travel Survey Program

An extensive travel survey program was conducted to support this study, consisting of:

x Eight (8) Intercity Highway survey locations, seven in North Carolina (I-40/I-85/I-95)

and one in Virginia (I-95)

x Two Airport survey locations: Charlotte, NC and Raleigh, NC

x On-Board train surveys along the six different routes serving southeast corridor

Exhibit 2.1 summarizes the specific locations of the surveys by mode, including the highway

surveys conducted in the states of North Carolina and Virginia.
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Exhibit 2.1: Southeast Travel Survey Program (All Modes)

The survey program conducted for the study consisted of two parts:

x A short interview, focusing on basic trip and traveler market characteristics, such as

origin and destination, and trip purpose

x A respondent-specific choice experiment section, addressing more detailed stated

preferences questions of a respondent mode choices under a series of future

situations comparing the survey mode to other modes, considering changes in the

travel time, cost and service frequencies of these modes

Exhibit 2.2 through 2.4 provides a sample of short interview questions included in the auto, air

and rail surveys.
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Exhibit 2.2: Highway Travel Survey Interview Questions

1 Vehicle Occupancy

2 Traveler Age

2 Origin city/state/zip

3 Destination city/state/zip

4 Trip Purpose Regular Commute (To/From Work)

Work Related Business Travel

Vacation/Recreation

Other

5 Home city/state/zip

6 Employment Status

7 Travel Time (in mins)

8 Travel Cost (in dollars)

9 Round Trip Yes/No

10 Willingness to pay taxes for HSR Yes/No

Exhibit 2.3: Air Travel Survey Interview Questions

1 Vehicle Occupancy/Group Size

2 Traveler Age

3 Origin Terminal/city/state/zip

4 Destination Terminal/city/state/zip

5 Connecting from/to Flight Yes/No

6 Access/Egress Travel Mode Private Car – Parked at station

Private Car – Dropped off at station

Rental Car

Hotel Bus/Van/Shuttle

Taxi

Local Bus or Rail Transit

Other including walk

7 Access/Egress Travel Time (in mins)

8 Trip Purpose Regular Commute (To/From Work)

Work Related Business Travel

Vacation/Recreation

Other

9 Home city/state/zip

10 Employment Status

11 Travel Time (in mins)

12 Travel Cost (one-way fare in dollars)

13 Round Trip Yes/No

14 Willingness to pay taxes for HSR Yes/No
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Exhibit 2.4: Rail Travel Survey Interview Questions

1 Vehicle Occupancy/Group Size

2 Traveler Age

3 Origin Station/city/state/zip

4 Destination Station/city/state/zip

5 Connecting from/to Train Yes/No

6 Access/Egress Travel Mode Private Car – Parked at station

Private Car – Dropped off at station

Rental Car

Hotel Bus/Van/Shuttle

Taxi

Local Bus or Rail Transit

Other including walk

7 Access/Egress Travel Time (in

mins)

8 Trip Purpose Regular Commute (To/From Work)

Work Related Business Travel

Vacation/Recreation

Other

9 Home city/state/zip

10 Employment Status

11 Travel Time (in mins)

12 Travel Cost (one-way fare in

dollars)

13 If no train service available Traveled by car/plane/bus/cancel

14 Round Trip Yes/No

15 Willingness to pay taxes for HSR Yes/No

A key characteristic of the interview survey activities was the use of portable laptop computers

to permit real time data entry during the conduct of each interview. The use of computers

replaces the paper based survey program and helped accomplish the following objectives:

 Automated screening to avoid illogical survey data entries

 Allow on-site editing at any time during or after the interview

 Provide for automatically assigning the traffic analysis zones to origin and destination

place names before completing the actual interview.

The last objective greatly reduces the post-survey processing time and aids in the

development of a more precise origin-destination pair. This is done by developing a database

which includes all place names in the study area and assigning the corresponding zone

number for each location, to be included in the survey application.
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2.2 Highway Survey Program

Highway surveys were conducted at eight (8) rest areas by interviewing the driver of a sample

of vehicles passing each location. Extensive planning, project control and team training was

conducted to develop procedures for collecting, summarizing, and geo-coding the origindestination information.

A total of 7,688 surveys were carried out for all the eight highway survey locations. Surveys

were conducted on a weekday and weekend at each location. Exhibit 2.5 summarizes the

total survey records conducted, refused, incomplete records and complete stated preferences

records on each highway survey location by direction.

Exhibit 2.5: Highway Travel Survey Program

Interstate Locations Number of

Records Refused

Complete

OD*

Complete

SP**

I-40 Benson_NC_EB 559 131 329 97

I-40 Benson_NC_WB 732 139 499 162

I-40 Burlington_NC_EB 523 90 318 188

I-40 Burlington_NC_WB 551 130 297 166

I-85 Concord_NC_NB 433 124 237 83

I-85 Concord_NC_SB 582 172 346 184

I-40 Marion_NC_EB 532 168 187 80

I-40 Marion_NC_WB 401 26 198 96

I-85 Oxford_NC_NB 506 141 302 168

I-85 Oxford_NC_SB 505 144 284 147

I-95 Rocky_Mount_I95_NB 809 296 352 148

I-95 Rocky_Mount_I95_SB 545 56 314 123

I-40 Wilmington_NC_EB 352 78 216 86

I-40 Wilmington_NC_WB 268 67 156 66

I-95 Richmond_VA_NB 239 38 109 64

I-95 Richmond_VA_SB 151 26 65 34

Total 7688 1826 4209 1892

* Complete OD – Origin and Destination responses are complete and within study area.

** Complete SP – Stated Preferences questions were asked and responses are complete.

2.3 Airport Survey Program

Airport surveys were conducted at the gate in the departure area serving each flight surveyed.

This required advanced coordination, cooperation and approval from airport management and

authorities. Passengers were interviewed prior to the boarding of each flight. The surveys
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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were conducted using the portable laptop computers allowing automated screening to avoid

illogical survey data entries.

A total of 2,517 surveys were carried out to air passengers at the two airports Charlotte and

Raleigh (CLT and RDU) within the Southeast region. These surveys were conducted on at

least one weekday and one weekend. Both these surveys were eventually used to develop

base year market data.

Exhibit 2.6 summarizes the total survey records conducted, refused, incomplete records and

complete stated preferences records on each surveyed flight for CLT and RDU airports.

Exhibit 2.6: Air Travel Survey Program

Total

Records Refused

Connecting

Flight

Complete

OD*

Complete

Flights SP**

CLT-BWI 207 38 119 46 29

CLT-DCA 156 29 89 27 12

CLT-EWR 207 37 139 27 11

CLT-IAD 65 14 44 5 1

CLT-JFK 132 24 57 44 19

CLT-LGA 378 78 144 135 60

CLT-PHL 231 65 123 33 15

CLT-RDU 53 11 39 1 0

CLT-RIC 113 25 72 11 7

Total Charlotte 1542 321 826 329 154

RDU-BWI 68 16 12 31 21

RDU-CLT 133 33 92 7 5

RDU-DCA 147 25 78 38 31

RDU-EWR 71 24 15 27 17

RDU-IAD 43 6 20 10 6

RDU-JFK 155 33 38 72 36

RDU-LGA 197 53 22 101 53

RDU-PHL 161 28 62 58 31

Total Raleigh 975 218 339 344 200

* Complete OD – Origin and Destination responses are complete and within study area.

** Complete SP – Stated Preferences questions were asked and responses are complete.
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2.4 On-Board Rail Surveys

Rail surveys were conducted on-board Amtrak’s Silver Star, Silver Meteor, Carolinian,

Piedmont, Palmetto, and Northeast Regional trains serving Virginia. Surveys were conducted

of passengers riding these trains within Virginia and North Carolina.

Survey distribution included one weekend day and one weekday for each train. A total of

1,339 surveys were conducted on-board for the above mentioned routes. Exhibit 2.7

summarizes the total survey records conducted, refused, incomplete records and complete

stated preferences.

Exhibit 2.7: Rail Travel Survey Program

Amtrak Routes &

Train Numbers+

Number of

Records Refused

Complete

OD*

Complete

SP**

Carolinian_79 183 46 134 87

Carolinian_80 186 44 132 53

Northeast_125 29 10 19 14

Northeast_164 14 7 7 1

Northeast_174 18 1 17 5

Northeast_194 36 8 28 13

Northeast_66 10 2 7 3

Northeast_67 17 3 14 2

Northeast_82 27 11 16 12

Northeast_83 37 13 23 16

Northeast_86 44 3 41 19

Northeast_87 32 9 23 9

Northeast_93 11 3 8 5

Northeast_94 26 3 19 5

Northeast_95 15 1 13 6

Palmetto _89 76 12 59 31

Palmetto_90 74 14 55 21

Piedmont_73 91 5 85 72

Piedmont_74 109 15 93 64

Piedmont_75 48 3 42 24

Piedmont_76 47 4 43 29

Silver Star_91 85 17 38 18

Silver Star_92 124 38 58 27

Total 1339 272 974 536

+ Odd numbered trains are southbound (from the NEC to VA/NC; from Raleigh to Charlotte) and even numbers

trains are northbound (from VA/NC to the NEC; from Charlotte to Raleigh)

* Complete OD – Origin and Destination responses are complete and within study area.

** Complete SP – Stated Preferences questions were asked and responses are complete.
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2.5 Multimodal Travel Market Data and Results

Multimodal intercity passenger market data for the Southeast were assembled from a number

of different sources. The following subsections highlight the key sources and methodology

used to develop the base travel market data by intercity mode.

2.5.1 Base Auto Market Data

Travel market data addressing existing automobile travel were assembled from the highway

surveys described above and traffic counts.

The key activities associated with processing and combining these data sources into a single

base auto travel market data included:

x Assigning study area zones to the origins and destinations

x Assigning adjustment factors to combine different estimates of the same origindestination market from different data sources.

Once all the highway survey records are assigned to origins and destinations, several

expansion factors are applied based on traffic count data and market location. The hourly

traffic count data with vehicle classification for passenger vehicles and trucks were obtained

from North Carolina Department of Transportation and Virginia Department of Transportation.

The first factor to be calculated is the hourly expansion factor, which is obtained by dividing

the number of passenger vehicles (based on the hourly traffic count data) by the number of

complete useable survey records for that hour. Next, the daily expansion factor is computed

by dividing the Annual Average ADT counts by the total of the hourly NCDOT traffic counts for

the hours during which complete useable auto surveys were obtained. The final count-based

factor is the annual expansion factor, which transforms the factored daily data to reflect annual

travel, and it is calculated assuming a full year with 253 weekdays and 112 weekend and

holiday days. The final combined survey expansion factor for each interview survey

observation is represented by the product of hourly, daily and annual factors.

After the count-based factors are computed, district/cordon adjustment factors are assigned to

each of the survey locations on an origin-destination basis to avoid multiple counting of

markets when the data are merged across different survey locations. This is necessary

because many trips within the study area are captured by multiple survey locations. A

district/cordon area system was overlaid upon the study area zone system, with the district

areas and cordon boundaries defined by the locations of each survey. Factors for combining

the survey data were then specified for each survey location, by district-to-district pair,

representing the contribution of each survey location to the estimate of total travel between

the district areas.
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2.5.2 Base Air Market Data

Travel market data addressing air travel were assembled from the following sources:

x Airport to Airport volume data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) 10

percent ticket sample and other similar sources.

x Air passenger survey data, including the new Airport surveys described in the Air

survey data program

2.5.3 Base Rail Market Data

Travel market data addressing rail travel were assembled from the following sources:

x Station to station ridership data provided by Amtrak

x New rail survey data collected on-board the six passenger train routes serving the

Southeast as described above.

2.5.4 Summary of Base Market Data

The expanded auto, air, and rail survey data provide the basis for estimating existing annual

person travel in several different dimensions. The trip purposes displayed by this and other

exhibits in this report represent a consolidation of the trip purposes obtained from the surveys

as follows:

x Business - includes all work related business trips

x Recreation - includes all recreation trips

x Other - includes commute to/from work, school, shopping, visit friends/relatives,

personal business, and other trips

As shown by Exhibit 2.6 other purpose travel represents the largest intercity trip purpose in

total and in most of the major markets.
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Exhibit 2.6 Summary of Existing Annual 2012 Person Trips by Purpose

Base Market Business Recreation Other Total

Charlotte-Rockingham -- Raleigh-Durham 2,953,713 1,333,769 4,939,528 9,227,010

Charlotte-Rockingham -- Winston Salem-Greensboro 1,745,063 1,135,279 4,243,987 7,124,329

Charlotte-Rockingham -- Rocky Mount-New Bern 960,019 536,069 978,923 2,475,011

Charlotte-Rockingham -- Ashville-Morgan Hickory 1,336,857 837,756 1,721,106 3,895,719

Charlotte-Rockingham -- Fayetteville-Wilmington 1,528,585 1,024,785 1,661,012 4,214,382

Charlotte-Rockingham -- Richmond-Brunswick 1,708,582 1,108,874 2,019,091 4,836,548

Charlotte-Rockingham -- Charlottesville-Lynchburg 1,710,338 1,104,144 1,874,558 4,689,039

Charlotte-Rockingham -- Virginia Beach 1,192,685 740,794 1,366,639 3,300,118

Charlotte-Rockingham -- Washington D.C 2,037,865 1,385,788 2,750,753 6,174,406

Charlotte-Rockingham -- New York 3,635,461 2,450,782 4,930,695 11,016,938

Charlotte-Rockingham -- Rest of North East 2,934,418 1,947,381 4,300,955 9,182,755

Raleigh-Durham -- Winston Salem-Greensboro 2,402,323 1,987,405 5,957,953 10,347,680

Raleigh-Durham -- Rocky Mount-New Bern 1,328,209 804,571 1,194,182 3,326,962

Raleigh-Durham -- Ashville-Morgan Hickory 1,466,809 1,214,537 2,628,608 5,309,954

Raleigh-Durham -- Fayetteville-Wilmington 2,396,764 2,656,835 3,434,092 8,487,691

Raleigh-Durham -- Richmond-Brunswick 1,978,096 1,168,722 2,475,584 5,622,402

Raleigh-Durham -- Charlottesville-Lynchburg 1,989,093 1,165,530 2,037,626 5,192,249

Raleigh-Durham -- Virginia Beach 1,355,038 817,683 1,621,616 3,794,337

Raleigh-Durham -- Washington D.C 2,278,260 1,556,499 3,289,292 7,124,051

Raleigh-Durham -- New York 4,044,388 2,626,763 5,456,462 12,127,613

Raleigh-Durham -- Rest of North East 3,355,380 2,189,730 5,252,780 10,797,889

Winston Salem-Greensboro -- Rocky Mount-New Bern 549,570 343,641 692,759 1,585,970

Winston Salem-Greensboro -- Ashville-Morgan Hickory 782,415 691,438 1,255,487 2,729,339

Winston Salem-Greensboro -- Fayetteville-Wilmington 362,849 488,414 478,096 1,329,359

Winston Salem-Greensboro -- Richmond-Brunswick 1,106,139 724,837 1,382,757 3,213,732

Winston Salem-Greensboro -- Charlottesville-Lynchburg 1,072,826 663,798 1,221,622 2,958,246

Winston Salem-Greensboro -- Virginia Beach 741,729 471,876 888,527 2,102,132

Winston Salem-Greensboro -- Washington D.C 1,221,861 1,143,261 1,952,824 4,317,946

Winston Salem-Greensboro -- New York 2,319,374 1,599,447 3,550,123 7,468,944

Winston Salem-Greensboro -- Rest of North East 1,804,443 1,230,543 2,731,184 5,766,170

Rocky Mount-New Bern -- Ashville-Morgan Hickory 762,563 466,687 1,072,491 2,301,740

Rocky Mount-New Bern -- Fayetteville-Wilmington 835,924 454,288 716,642 2,006,854

Rocky Mount-New Bern -- Richmond-Brunswick 1,131,885 651,743 1,207,271 2,990,898

Rocky Mount-New Bern -- Charlottesville-Lynchburg 417,550 254,920 463,159 1,135,629

Rocky Mount-New Bern -- Virginia Beach 733,828 455,676 840,460 2,029,964

Rocky Mount-New Bern -- Washington D.C 1,392,102 1,022,911 1,705,449 4,120,462

Rocky Mount-New Bern -- New York 2,381,632 1,609,139 3,228,060 7,218,831

Rocky Mount-New Bern -- Rest of North East 1,891,246 1,250,757 2,910,037 6,052,040
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Base Market Business Recreation Other Total

Ashville-Morgan Hickory -- Fayetteville-Wilmington 1,163,198 718,993 1,281,834 3,164,025

Ashville-Morgan Hickory -- Richmond-Brunswick 1,408,760 862,332 1,547,307 3,818,399

Ashville-Morgan Hickory -- Charlottesville-Lynchburg 1,359,688 816,180 1,460,081 3,635,949

Ashville-Morgan Hickory -- Virginia Beach 930,471 574,086 1,052,903 2,557,460

Ashville-Morgan Hickory -- Washington D.C 1,779,373 1,153,166 2,104,439 5,036,978

Ashville-Morgan Hickory -- New York 3,036,653 2,038,336 4,008,142 9,083,131

Ashville-Morgan Hickory -- Rest of North East 2,490,751 1,635,651 3,161,235 7,287,637

Fayetteville-Wilmington -- Richmond-Brunswick 1,522,129 956,097 1,806,721 4,284,947

Fayetteville-Wilmington -- Charlottesville-Lynchburg 1,496,522 920,962 1,645,519 4,063,002

Fayetteville-Wilmington -- Virginia Beach 1,007,366 632,241 1,195,877 2,835,484

Fayetteville-Wilmington -- Washington D.C 1,914,438 1,674,239 3,072,427 6,661,104

Fayetteville-Wilmington -- New York 3,269,950 2,245,661 4,464,050 9,979,661

Fayetteville-Wilmington -- Rest of North East 2,472,617 1,855,403 3,269,772 7,597,792

Richmond-Brunswick -- Charlottesville-Lynchburg 1,574,442 926,461 1,626,331 4,127,234

Richmond-Brunswick -- Virginia Beach 1,302,574 788,481 1,421,502 3,512,557

Richmond-Brunswick -- Washington D.C 3,098,806 2,178,171 4,224,968 9,501,945

Richmond-Brunswick -- New York 4,241,616 2,794,104 6,253,571 13,289,291

Richmond-Brunswick -- Rest of North East 6,507,524 4,127,724 8,285,660 18,920,908

Charlottesville-Lynchburg -- Virginia Beach 1,193,038 732,969 1,339,253 3,265,261

Charlottesville-Lynchburg -- Washington D.C 2,387,144 1,506,931 2,819,061 6,713,136

Charlottesville-Lynchburg -- New York 3,914,781 2,619,819 5,136,270 11,670,870

Charlottesville-Lynchburg -- Rest of North East 5,827,774 3,864,007 7,521,748 17,213,529

Virginia Beach -- Washington D.C 1,466,038 3,608,015 5,341,922 10,415,975

Virginia Beach -- New York 2,592,355 1,776,700 4,799,320 9,168,375

Virginia Beach -- Rest of North East 4,106,455 2,944,460 6,336,712 13,387,627

Total 125,910,343 87,268,261 175,609,013 388,787,617
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3. Socio-Economic Data

Socio-economic characteristics represent the key independent variables in forecasting growth

in total travel volumes, irrespective of change in the level of service provided by competing

travel modes. The three socio-economic indicators used in this project include:

x Population

x Employment

x Per-capita Income

These data were obtained from AECOM’s national vendor Economy.com; which provides the

forecasting data at annual intervals up to 2040 at the county level.

Using the 2010 Census employment and population, the county-level forecasts were split to

the smaller Census Division geographic level for use with the zone system.

Exhibit 3.1, 3.2 and 3.3 below provide the population, employment and per capita income

summary for the major markets respectively.

Exhibit 3.1 Population Forecast for Major Markets

Market Description

Population (in thousands)

2012 2020 2030 2040

Charlotte-Rockingham Charlotte Metro, NC-SC-Rockingham 2,313 2,730 3,339 3,918

Raleigh-Durham Raleigh Metro--Henderson-Durham--Chapel Hill, NC 2,016 2,366 2,890 3,436

Winston SalemGreensboro Winston Salem--Greensboro--Lexington, NC 1,528 1,657 1,844 2,037

Rocky Mount-New Bern Rocky Mount--Wilson-New Bern--Morehead City, NC 811 865 943 1,015

Asheville-Morgan Hickory Asheville--Hickory--Statesville--Forest City, NC 1,157 1,270 1,432 1,591

Fayetteville-Wilmington Fayetteville--Lumberton-Wilmington--Jacksonville, NC 1,569 1,735 1,971 2,204

Richmond-Brunswick Richmond Metro, VA 1,407 1,514 1,644 1,774

Charlottesville-Lynchburg Charlottesville-Lynchburg, VA 1,233 1,312 1,413 1,515

Virginia Beach Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA 1,716 1,815 1,944 2,072

Washington D.C Washington Metro DC-VA-MD-WV 5,652 6,168 6,793 7,400

New York New York Metro NY-NJ 19,130 19,497 20,019 20,811

Rest of Northeast Boston-New England-Philadelphia-Baltimore Metro 17,891 18,367 18,858 19,328

All Total Study Area 56,423 59,296 63,089 67,098
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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Exhibit 3.2 Employment Forecast for Major Markets

Exhibit 3.3 Per Capita Income Forecast for Major Markets

Market Description

Employment (in thousands)

2012 2020 2030 2040

Charlotte-Rockingham Charlotte Metro, NC-SC-Rockingham 1,000 1,189 1,387 1,603

Raleigh-Durham Raleigh Metro--Henderson-Durham--Chapel Hill, NC 902 1,076 1,271 1,478

Winston SalemGreensboro Winston Salem--Greensboro--Lexington, NC 645 716 784 847

Rocky Mount-New Bern Rocky Mount--Wilson-New Bern--Morehead City, NC 317 360 399 429

Asheville-Morgan Hickory Asheville--Hickory--Statesville--Forest City, NC 442 498 560 620

Fayetteville-Wilmington Fayetteville--Lumberton-Wilmington--Jacksonville, NC 517 598 684 781

Richmond-Brunswick Richmond Metro, VA 665 738 776 809

Charlottesville-Lynchburg Charlottesville-Lynchburg, VA 539 602 646 693

Virginia Beach Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA 754 824 858 885

Washington D.C Washington Metro DC-VA-MD-WV 2,994 3,309 3,521 3,878

New York New York Metro NY-NJ 8,503 9,394 9,801 10,374

Rest of Northeast Boston-New England-Philadelphia-Baltimore Metro 8,487 9,244 9,590 9,975

All Total Study Area 25,766 28,548 30,275 32,374

Market Description

Per Capita Income

2012 2020 2030 2040

Charlotte-Rockingham Charlotte Metro, NC-SC-Rockingham 33,952 36,366 38,337 41,691

Raleigh-Durham Raleigh Metro--Henderson-Durham--Chapel Hill, NC 34,230 37,810 40,870 44,378

Winston SalemGreensboro Winston Salem--Greensboro--Lexington, NC 31,563 34,529 37,449 40,019

Rocky Mount-New Bern Rocky Mount--Wilson-New Bern--Morehead City, NC 29,309 33,408 38,418 43,830

Asheville-Morgan Hickory Asheville--Hickory--Statesville--Forest City, NC 28,574 31,459 34,967 38,775

Fayetteville-Wilmington Fayetteville--Lumberton-Wilmington--Jacksonville, NC 31,251 36,717 45,200 57,376

Richmond-Brunswick Richmond Metro, VA 36,248 41,439 46,161 51,019

Charlottesville-Lynchburg Charlottesville-Lynchburg, VA 31,199 35,741 39,799 43,993

Virginia Beach Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA 36,346 41,761 45,879 49,676

Washington D.C Washington Metro DC-VA-MD-WV 51,289 59,171 66,480 76,964

New York New York Metro NY-NJ 49,879 60,393 70,563 81,491

Rest of Northeast Boston-New England-Philadelphia-Baltimore Metro 46,596 55,758 65,113 75,056

All Total Study Area 44,861 52,794 60,295 68,646
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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4. Multimodal Networks and Service Characteristics

Modal service characteristics represent the key independent variables for modeling and

forecasting the market shares captured by each intercity mode of travel. These characteristics

influence the mode choice behavior by providing individuals with a measure of travel

impedance between zones for the competitive modes. The mode choice models include the

following characteristics:

x Travel Time (hours, minutes)

x Travel Cost (dollars)

x Frequency of service (departures per day)

4.1 Highway Network and Auto Service Characteristics

Auto impedances were developed from an intercity highway network representing interstate,

principal arterial, and other highway facilities connecting all study area zones and intercity

passenger terminals. The highway network was derived from Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s

existing highway network database. Travel times were calculated for each link based on

facility type, distance, and state speed limits. Exhibit 4.1 illustrates the resulting highway

network within the study area.
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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Exhibit 4.1 Southeast Highway Network

In order to create zone-to-zone characteristics for auto, a set of network “skims” (total time,

distance, and tolls paid between each origin-destination pair) were produced using an ArcGIS

based application called Network Analyst. Network Analyst was used to calculate the

minimum path, based on minimizing travel time to/from each of the zones in the study area.

Each minimum path calculation developed the time, distance, and toll costs associated with

the trip. Auto costs are then computed by applying an appropriate rate per mile to reflect fully

allocated costs (per IRS), for business travel, and incremental costs (fuel and other

incremental costs only), for non-business travel. Using the same procedure, access and

egress times were also calculated for all rail stations and airports within the study area.

This process produced zone-to-zone distance and time matrices based on the minimum travel

time route between each study area zone pair.

4.2 Rail and Air Service Characteristics

Travel characteristics for rail and air travel were also developed for each study area zone pair

using published timetables and the highway network for access to/from stations/airports. Key

Legend

Highway Network

Freeways and Other Expressway

Other Highway Facilities
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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characteristics include line haul time, frequency/schedule of service, fares, and access times

and costs. The line haul time is the scheduled rail/air time between stations/airports.

Published Amtrak timetables (2013) and airline data (2012) obtained from Bureau of

Transportation Statistics (BTS) provide the basis for quantifying the line haul time and

frequency of service in each market. Average rail fares were computed by dividing actual

Amtrak ticket revenue by ridership and average air fares were similarly computed by dividing

the total market fare revenue by total passengers obtained from BTS.

The access times and costs include the time/cost traveling from the origin zone to the

boarding rail station/airport; the time/cost associated with the station, including

waiting/boarding times and parking costs; and the time/cost traveling from the destination

station/airport to the final destination zone. Access times and costs for travel between zones

and stations/airports were developed using the same network procedure and cost per mile

rates described above and used for the auto zone-to-zone travel characteristics.

4.3 Summary of Existing Service Characteristics

Exhibits 4.2 through 4.9 show respectively auto, air and rail bus travel service characteristics

for the Charlotte-Raleigh, Charlotte-Washington, Raleigh-New York, Raleigh-Richmond,

Richmond-New York, Raleigh-Baltimore, Charlotte-Greensboro, Wilmington, NC-Washington,

and Asheville-Raleigh markets – reflecting downtown-downtown trips.

Exhibit 4.2: Key Travel Service Characteristics by Mode for Charlotte-Raleigh

Line Haul Auto Air Rail

Airport/Stations/Terminals CLT-RDU CLT-RGH

Distance(miles) 169

Travel Cost (full/incremental) $91/$20 $ 163 $ 29

Travel Time (mins) 196 160 194

Frequency (departures/day) 9 3

Access-Egress

Distance (miles) 23 7

Travel Time (mins) 30 9
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Exhibit 4.3: Key Travel Service Characteristics by Mode for Charlotte-Washington

Line Haul Auto Air Rail

Airport/Stations/Terminals CLT-DCA CLT-WAS

Distance(miles) 408

Travel Cost (full/incremental) $220/$49 $ 269 $ 83

Travel Time (mins) 448 155 535

Frequency (departures/day) 10 3

Access-Egress

Distance (miles) 15 5

Travel Time (mins) 21 8

Exhibit 4.4: Key Travel Service Characteristics by Mode for Raleigh-New York

Line Haul Auto Air Rail

Airport/Stations/Terminals RDU-JFK RGH-NYP

Distance(miles) 514

Travel Cost (full/incremental) $277/$62 $130 $ 99

Travel Time (mins) 566 137.54 607.5

Frequency (departures/day) 10 2

Access-Egress

Distance (miles) 25 9

Travel Time (mins) 28 11

Exhibit 4.5: Key Travel Service Characteristics by Mode for Raleigh-Richmond

Line Haul Auto Air Rail

Airport/Stations/Terminals RDU-RIC RGH - RVR

Distance(miles) 170

Travel Cost (full/incremental) $102/$23 $ 233 $ 44

Travel Time (mins) 184 86 218

Frequency (departures/day) 1 2

Access-Egress

Distance (miles) 26 10

Travel Time (mins) 28 13
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Exhibit 4.6: Key Travel Service Characteristics by Mode for Richmond-New York

Line Haul Auto Air Rail

Airport/Stations/Terminals RIC-JFK RVR-NYP

Distance(miles) 384

Travel Cost (full/incremental) $208/$46 $ 199 $ 100

Travel Time (mins) 409 94 377

Frequency (departures/day) 4 9

Access-Egress

Distance (miles) 22 8

Travel Time (mins) 22 12

Exhibit 4.7: Key Travel Service Characteristics by Mode for Raleigh-Baltimore

Line Haul Auto Air Rail

Airport/Stations/Terminals RDU-BWI RGH-BAL

Distance(miles) 316

Travel Cost (full/incremental) $170/$38 $ 137 $ 74

Travel Time (mins) 336 103 436

Frequency (departures/day) 8 2

Access-Egress

Distance (miles) 27 14

Travel Time (mins) 34 17

Exhibit 4.8: Key Travel Service Characteristics by Mode for Charlotte-Greensboro

Line Haul Auto Air Rail

Airport/Stations/Terminals CLT – GSO CLT-GRO

Distance(miles) 94

Travel Cost (full/incremental) $51/$11 $ 98 $ 20

Travel Time (mins) 109 143 108

Frequency (departures/day) 9 4

Access-Egress

Distance (miles) 20 8

Travel Time (mins) 30 12
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Exhibit 4.9: Key Travel Service Characteristics by Mode for Wilmington, NC-Washington

Line Haul Auto Air Rail-Bus

Airport/Stations/Terminals ILM - DCA WMN - WAS

Distance(miles) 370

Travel Cost (full/incremental) $200/$44 $ 290 $ 90

Travel Time (mins) 426 236 544

Frequency (departures/day) 1

1 (rail-bus

connection)

Access-Egress

Distance (miles) 23 9

Travel Time (mins) 27 14

Exhibit 4.10: Key Travel Service Characteristics by Mode for Asheville-Raleigh

Line Haul Auto Air Rail

Airport/Stations/Terminals AVL - RDU No Service

Distance(miles) 249

Travel Cost (full/incremental) $134/$30 $ 332

Travel Time (mins) 287 190

Frequency (departures/day) 1

Access-Egress

Distance (miles) 26

Travel Time (mins) 30
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5. Model Development and Application

The travel demand modeling and forecasting approach consists of the development and

application of a two stage model system. The first stage is a model which predicts total

intercity passenger travel volume by origin-destination pair. The second stage predicts the

share of intercity passenger travel which is expected to use each of available intercity modes.

Both model stages are conditional on the service characteristics of the modes and the socioeconomic conditions.

Two stage models are applied in reverse order (i.e., mode share before total demand) so that

the mode share model results can be incorporated within the total demand model structure.

This linkage provides the total travel model with sensitivity to changes in the level of service

provided by all modes. The development of the mode choice models was based on the auto,

rail, and air surveys described previously.

The overall procedure adopted in developing the mode share models consists of a number of

steps. First, potential specifications of variables and segmentations were identified based on

expected differences in travel behavior and on prior empirical experience with intercity mode

choice models. Second, a descriptive analysis of data was undertaken to ascertain the

feasibility of adopting the segments identified earlier. Third, mode share models were

estimated to determine the specification of variables and finalize the model segmentations.

Fourth, the model specifications are refined after initial tests of aggregate prediction results to:

x correct for aggregation error

x ensure that the model's predicted rail shares are in reasonable agreement with actual

observed shares in key markets

x eliminate unnecessary complexity

5.1 Mode Share Model Framework and Estimation

Once the auto, rail, and air trip tables were created as described above, the survey records

had expansion weights added to expand to the total number of trips by mode. Because the

survey records only cover specific zonal pairs though, any trips which take place outside of

the zonal pairs covered by the survey records were removed. The expansion weights specific

to each mode were then calculated for each zonal pair as being the number of trips divided by

the number of survey records. To avoid ALOGIT placing too much significance on each

record, the final expansion weights are deflated so that the sum of all the weights is equal to

the total number of records. Each survey records contains six stated preference questions, so

for each stated preference record, the expansion weight is one-sixth of the survey record

weight.

Initial testing specifications

Model estimation was first done using the unweighted revealed preference (RP) survey

records, to provide initial guidance with respect to segmentation, nesting structures, and

model specification. While the stated preference (SP) questions included high speed rail

alternatives, the RP questions only incorporate the three existing modes which were surveyed
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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(auto, air, and conventional rail). Intercity bus is another existing mode option, but was not

surveyed, and cannot be incorporated in the model estimation efforts.

The existing SEHSR model is segmented on two dimensions, trip purpose and distance. The

trip purpose segments are business, recreation, and other. Commute was also an option for

survey respondents, and the initial testing determined they fit best with the other segment.

The previous model distance segments are less than 125 miles, 125 to 250 miles, and greater

than 250 miles. The survey records were tabulated to ensure adequate records in each

segment and the existing segmentation summaries are shown in Exhibit 5.1 and 5.2.

Exhibit 5.1 Trip Purpose Survey Record Summary

Purpose Air Auto Rail Total

Business 116 262 51 429

Commute 7 62 43 112

Other 156 1044 395 1595

Recreation 72 500 47 619

Total 351 1868 536 2755

Exhibit 5.2 Trip Distance Survey Record Summary

Trip Distance Air Auto Rail Total

< 125 Miles 1 527 210 738

125 - 250 Miles 7 749 179 935

> 250 Miles 343 592 147 1082

Total 351 1868 536 2755

Because trip distance is also used as an explanatory variable, an alternate segmentation was

tested involving the metropolitan area size, to account for geographic-specific impacts.

Metropolitan areas were split into rural areas (not in an MSA), minor metro areas (less than 1

million people) and major metro areas (1 million or more people). Exhibit 5.3 shows the

survey records for each geography segment
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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Exhibit 5.3 Metro Area Size Survey Record Summary

Origin and Destination Type Air Auto Rail Total

Both Major Areas 208 319 253 780

Major and Minor 123 904 202 1229

Major and Rural 16 257 54 327

Both Minor Areas 4 191 16 211

Minor and Rural 0 177 11 188

Both Rural Areas 0 20 0 20

Total 351 1868 536 2755

Because of the limited amount of alternatives in the RP dataset, only two nesting structures

were tested, including no nests at all (a basic multinomial logit model), and with a single nest

including air and rail. Auto travel does not share enough characteristics with air and rail to

consider other nesting structures.

The last purpose for testing the RP dataset was to examine various specifications of service

characteristics, including line haul and access/egress travel time, line haul and access/egress

cost, and frequency.

Initial specification (from existing model):

 alternative-specific constants (auto is base)

 total travel time divided by functional form of distance (D)

 access/egress time squared divided by another functional form of distance (a)

 total cost divided by income and a functional form of distance (D)

 “damped” functional form of frequency (F)

D = 1.0 – exp(kd))

where k = -0.002

d = highway distance

a = total highway distance minus access/egress distance

F = log(1.0 - exp(kf))

where k = -0.08

f = frequency

Additional Variables:

x Functional form of percentage train is on-time (exp(-OTP))

x Indicator variable for trips between major metropolitan areas (> 1 mil)

After testing different aspects of the model components described above, three models were

estimated based on the revealed preference data for business, recreation, and other trip

purposes.
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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The RP business purpose mode choice model was best estimated as a multinomial logit

(MNL) model. The model specification can be seen in Exhibit 5.4. The separate cost and

travel time variables did not perform well in initial testing, and were adjusted to be a

generalized cost variable, with the value of time constrained to $22.90/hour for surface modes

(auto and conventional rail) and $57.20 for air. All other variable transformations are as

described above.

Exhibit 5.4 Initial Revealed Preference MNL Business Mode Choice Model

Variables Coefficient t ratio

Air ASC 0.83 0.4

Rail ASC -1.32 -1.1

Adj Acc/Egr Travel Time -0.00013 -1.3

Adj Generalized Cost – All Modes -0.0000079 -2.9

Adj Generalized Cost - Air 0.0000055 1.9

Adj Generalized Cost - CR 0.0000072 2.6

Adj Frequency 5.2900000 8.0

Number of records 422

Rho-squared w.r.t. Constants 0.4349

The RP recreation purpose mode choice model was also a MNL model, but did not require a

generalized cost term. All variable transformations are the same as described above. The

model specification can be seen in Exhibit 5.5

Exhibit 5.5 Initial Revealed Preference MNL Recreation Mode Choice Model

Variables Coefficient t ratio

Air ASC -0.07 -0.1

Rail ASC 2.05 4.8

Adj Total Travel Time -0.0031 -3.6

Adj Acc/Egr Travel Time -0.000219 -1.9

Adj Total Cost -0.005113 -3.6

Adj Frequency 4.4410 7.8

Number of records 600

Rho-squared w.r.t. Constants 0.3607

The RP other trip purpose mode choice model was estimated as a nested logit model, with air

and conventional rail sharing a nest. All variable transformations are the same as described

above. The model specification can be seen in Exhibit 5.6
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Exhibit 5.6 Initial Revealed Preference NL Other Mode Choice Model

Variables Coefficient t ratio

Air ASC 1.11 3.2

Rail ASC 2.63 9.1

Adj Total Travel Time -0.0002 -0.5

Adj Acc/Egr Travel Time -0.000121 -2.4

Adj Total Cost -0.006188 -7.2

Adj Frequency 4.192 10.2

Theta 0.78 7.3

Number of records 1538

Rho-squared w.r.t. Constants 0.1951

Final Model Specification

After initial testing was completed, the final mode choice models were estimated using the

combined RP and SP survey records, which allowed for the inclusion of high speed rail as a

mode. These models used simple expansion weights as described above and constrained

some variable coefficients to the revealed preference model values. After estimation, the

models were calibrated to match the stated preference mode shares for twelve specific major

market pairs in the model area. The models below are the final calibrated models. All

variable transformations are the same as described in the initial testing specification section.

All three trip purpose mode choice models were nested logit models with an air/HSR nest.

Any coefficients which have a t-ratio of zero are either asserted from the RP model

specification or adjusted during calibration. The model specifications for the three models can

be seen in Exhibit 5.7 through 5.9.

Exhibit 5.7 Final Nested Logit Business Mode Choice Model

Variables Coefficient t ratio

Adj Acc/Egr Travel Time -0.000130 0

Adj Generalized Cost -7.90E-07 0

Adj Total Cost - Air -3.306E-07 -1.9

Adj Total Cost - CR 4.692E-07 0.7

Adj Frequency 1.0000 0

Auto Dist 125-250 Miles 2.7500 0

Auto Dist 250-400 Miles 1.2500 0

Auto Dist >400 Miles 0.8000 0

Major-Major Metro - Air 10.34 11.3

Major-Major Metro - Rail -0.25 0

Theta 0.2996 16.1
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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Exhibit 5.8 Final Nested Logit Recreation Mode Choice Model

Variables Coefficient t ratio

Adj Total Travel Time -0.0031 0

Adj Acc/Egr Travel Time -0.00022 0

Adj Total Cost -0.005434 -9.3

Adj Frequency 1.0000 0

Major-Major Metro - Air 2.29E-02 0.1

Air Dist 250-400 Miles 0.05 0

Air Dist >400 Miles 14 0

Rail Dist < 125 Miles 2.392 13.6

Rail Dist 125 - 250 Miles 5 0

Rail Dist 250-400 Miles 5 0

Rail Dist >400 Miles 3 0

Theta 0.7572 28.6

Exhibit 5.9 Final Nested Logit Other Mode Choice Model

Variables Coefficient t ratio

Adj Total Travel Time -0.0002 0

Adj Acc/Egr Travel Time -0.001200 0

Adj Total Cost -0.0062 0

Adj Frequency 1.0000 0

Auto Dist 125-250 Miles 6.00 0

Auto Dist 250-400 Miles 3.00 0

Auto Dist >400 Miles 2.00 0

Major-Major Metro - Air 1.9220 6.2

Air Dist 125-250 Miles 1.00 0

Air Dist 250-400 Miles 5.00 10.7

Air Dist >400 Miles 6.00 0

Rail Dist < 125 Miles 0.72 11.5

Rail Dist 125 - 250 Miles 0.69 12.1

Rail Dist 250-400 Miles 0.68 8.2

Rail Dist >400 Miles 0.79 6.9

Theta 0.92 23.8
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5.2 Total Travel Demand Model

In the two-stage travel demand modeling approach, a total travel demand model component is

required in conjunction with the modal share model. Total travel demand forecasts define the

total market size to which the modal shares are applied to produce ridership forecasts by

mode. In general, there are two major influences on the total travel demand between any two

geographic areas:

 Population growth and changes in economic activity in the geographic areas

 Changes in the modal levels of service provided between the geographic areas

Measures used to represent the impacts of these changes respectively include:

 Socio-economic data and forecasts, such as:

- population

- household income

- employment

 Composite modal level of service, defined by the modal share model structure and

equivalent to summing across all modes in the MNL as follows:

where:

i - mode

Ui - utility of mode i

The total travel models have a multiplicative structure, with exponent coefficients on each of

the independent variables. The models were estimated using a log-linear regression

technique, with total trips as the dependent variable. Separate models were estimated for

each of the three trip purpose market segments reflected in the mode share models --

business, recreation, and other non-recreation.

The total travel models were applied using a ratio formulation that relates total travel market

growth to growth in the independent variables, computed as the ratio of the forecast year to

the base year values. This is illustrated by the following equation:

LOS (= U )i

i

i ¦exp

LOS

LOS

x

EMP

EMP

POP

POP

=

TRP

TRP

B

F

c

B

F

b

B

F

a

B

F
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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where:

TRIP - trips F - future year

POP - population B - base year

EMP - employment

LOS - level of service

That is, interzonal trips are projected to grow in proportion to population, adjusted for its

estimated effect, a; in proportion to the employment changes in the attraction zone, adjusted

for its estimated effect, b; and in proportion to changes in the overall level of service, adjusted

for its estimated effect, c.
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6. Rail Alternatives and Service Characteristics

Ridership and revenue forecasts were prepared for current service and four (4) future service

alternatives reflecting different levels of high-speed and conventional rail improvements in

North Carolina and Virginia. These alternatives include the following rail services:

x Current Service, consisting of:

o 3 round trips between Charlotte and Raleigh, with 1 round trip (the Carolinian)

continuing into Virginia via Rocky Mount (on the A-Line) and then to New York

o 6 round trips that begin/end in Virginia, including:

 5 round trips between Richmond and New York/Boston, with 2

extending to/from Newport News and 1 extending to/from Norfolk

 1 round trip between Lynchburg and New York/Boston

o 4 round trips provided by Amtrak Long Distance trains (Silver Star, Silver

Meteor, Palmetto, and Crescent) that pass though North Carolina and Virginia

x Baseline (No Build), which adds 2 planned Charlotte-Raleigh round trips to the current

service. In summary, the Baseline consists of:

o 5 round trips between Charlotte and Raleigh, with 1 round trip (the Carolinian)

continuing into Virginia via Rocky Mount (on the A-Line) and then to New York

o 6 round trips that begin/end in Virginia, including:

 5 round trips between Richmond and New York/Boston, with 2

extending to/from Newport News and 1 extending to/from Norfolk

 1 round trip between Lynchburg and New York/Boston

o 4 round trips provided by Amtrak Long Distance trains (Silver Star, Silver

Meteor, Palmetto, and Crescent) that pass though North Carolina and Virginia

x Full Build, which replaces the Baseline North Carolina trains with new Southeast High

Speed Rail (SEHSR) trains utilizing the new S-Line between Petersburg and Raleigh

via Henderson, NC. In summary, the Full Build includes:

o Southeast High Speed Rail (SEHSR) service providing 8 round trips between

Charlotte and Raleigh, with:

 3 round trips continuing into Virginia via Henderson (on the S-Line)

between Petersburg & Raleigh and then to New York

 a 4th round trip that would operate only between Raleigh and New York

via S-Line between Petersburg & Raleigh

 1 round trip continuing into Virginia via Rocky Mount (on the A-Line), as

the Carolinian does currently, and then to New York

o 6 round trips that begin/end in Virginia, including:

 5 round trips between Richmond and New York/Boston, with 2

extending to/from Newport News and 1 extending to/from Norfolk

 1 round trip between Lynchburg and New York/Boston

o 4 round trips provided by Amtrak Long Distance trains (Silver Star, Silver

Meteor, Palmetto, and Crescent) that pass though North Carolina and Virginia;

including the Silver Star moved to the S-Line between Petersburg & Raleigh
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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x Baseline with Additional Services, which adds service to Asheville, Wilmington,

Newport News, Norfolk, and Roanoke to the Baseline. In summary, the Baseline with

Additional Services includes:

o 5 round trips between Charlotte and Raleigh, with 1 round trip (the Carolinian)

continuing into Virginia via Rocky Mount (on the A-Line) and then to New York

o New train services to Asheville and Wilmington, connecting with the CharlotteRaleigh-New York trains in Salisbury and Raleigh respectively

o 10 round trips that begin/end in Virginia, including:

 8 round trips between Richmond and New York/Boston, all of which

actually extend to/from Newport News, and 3 round trips to/from

Norfolk, connecting with the Newport News-Richmond-New

York/Boston trains in Richmond

 2 round trips between Roanoke, Lynchburg and New York/Boston

o 4 round trips provided by Amtrak Long Distance trains (Silver Star, Silver

Meteor, Palmetto, and Crescent) that pass though North Carolina and Virginia

x Full Build with Additional Services, which adds service to Asheville, Wilmington,

Newport News, Norfolk, and Roanoke to the Full Build. In summary, the Full Build with

Additional Services includes:

o Southeast High Speed Rail (SEHSR) service providing 8 round trips between

Charlotte and Raleigh, with:

 3 round trips continuing into Virginia via Henderson (on the S-Line)

between Petersburg & Raleigh and then to New York

 a 4th round trip that would operate only between Raleigh and New York

via S-Line between Petersburg & Raleigh

 1 round trip continuing into Virginia via Rocky Mount (on the A-Line), as

the Carolinian does currently, and then to New York

o New train services to Asheville and Wilmington, connecting with the CharlotteRaleigh-New York SEHSR trains in Salisbury and Raleigh respectively

o 10 round trips that begin/end in Virginia, including:

 8 round trips between Richmond and New York/Boston, all of which

actually extend to/from Newport News, and 3 round trips to/from

Norfolk, connecting with the Newport News-Richmond-New

York/Boston trains in Richmond

 2 round trips between Roanoke, Lynchburg and New York/Boston

o 4 round trips provided by Amtrak Long Distance trains (Silver Star, Silver

Meteor, Palmetto, and Crescent) that pass though North Carolina and Virginia;

including the Silver Star moved to the S-Line between Petersburg & Raleigh

Exhibits 6.1 through 6.5 on the pages that follow show each of these five rail service

alternatives graphically. In these schematics, each train frequency is represented by a line,

with color coding to help distinguish among the different groups of train services.
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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Exhibit 6.1 Current Service
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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Exhibit 6.2 Baseline (No Build) Service
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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Exhibit 6.3 Full Build Service
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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Exhibit 6.4 Baseline with Additional Service
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

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Exhibit 6.5 Full Build with Additional Service

NCDOT staff provided detailed timetables showing the specific departure/arrival times for

each train at each station service. Exhibit 6.6 below summarizes the resulting train

frequencies, by key market, across the service alternatives, and Exhibit 6.7 summarizes the

average travel times, considering only the North Carolina and Virginia train services (the long

distance trains provide generally slower and often less convenient times within the North

Carolina and Virginia markets).
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

40

Exhibit 6.6 Train Frequencies by Key Market

Exhibit 6.7 Average Travel Times by Key Market

Current Baseline Baseline + Full Build +

Service (No Build) Full Build add'l service add'l service

Frequency (daily round trips)

North Carolina Trains

Washington-Raleigh (via S Line) 0 0 4 0 4

Washington-Raleigh (via A Line) 1 1 1 1 1

Raleigh-Charlotte 3 5 8 5 8

Raleigh-Wilmington 0 0 0 2 2

Salisbury-Asheville 0 0 0 2 2

Virginia Trains

Washington-Richmond 5 5 5 8 8

Richmond-Newport News 3 2 2 8 8

Richmond-Norfolk (thru to/from WAS) 1 1 1 0 0

Richmond-Norfolk (shuttle) 0 0 0 3 3

Washington-Lynchburg 1 1 1 2 2

Lynchburg-Roanoke 0 0 0 2 2

Amtrak Long Distance Trains

Silver Star 1 1 1 1 1

Silver Meteor 1 1 1 1 1

Palmetto 1 1 1 1 1

Crescent 1 1 1 1 1

Current Baseline Baseline + Full Build +

Service (No Build) Full Build add'l service add'l service

Average Travel Times (among NC & VA trains)

New York-Richmond 6:26 6:20 5:25 6:06 5:35

Washington-Richmond 2:18 2:19 2:08 2:07 2:04

New York-Raleigh 9:57 9:57 7:38 9:57 7:38

Washington-Raleigh 5:59 5:59 4:35 5:59 4:35

Richmond-Raleigh 3:36 3:36 2:26 3:36 2:26

New York-Charlotte 13:25 13:25 10:35 13:25 10:35

Washington-Charlotte 9:27 9:27 7:33 9:27 7:33

Richmond-Charlotte 7:03 7:03 5:25 7:03 5:25

Raleigh-Charlotte 3:13 3:09 2:49 3:09 2:49

Raleigh-Wilmington no service no service no service 2:30 2:30

Salisbury-Asheville no service no service no service 3:17 3:17
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

41

All of the alternatives described above were analyzed at current Amtrak fares. Where service

does not currently exist, fares were computed by extrapolating the current Amtrak pricing in

similar existing markets. In addition, under the full build alternatives with SEHSR trains

service, higher fares were assumed for the markets served by these trains and set at 25%

more than these existing fares.
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

42

7. Ridership and Revenue Projections

Ridership and revenue forecasts were prepared for each of the four future service

alternatives, described in Section 6, for future forecast year 2030, 2040, and other interim

years. Exhibit 7.1 below summarizes the 2030 forecasts and Exhibit 7.2 summarizes the

2040 forecasts. Please note that all ticket revenue projections are stated in current year

(2013) dollars. In addition, the Long Distance trains totals only include markets from New

York through Virginia and North Carolina.

As discussed in Section 6, the Baseline (No Build) reflects current service plus two new

planned frequencies between Charlotte and Raleigh. In comparison, the Full Build replaces

these Baseline North Carolina trains with new Southeast High Speed Rail (SEHSR) trains

utilizing the new S-Line between Petersburg and Raleigh. As expected, the corresponding

ridership and ticket revenue forecasts increase significantly with the Full Build, reflecting these

significant service improvements. For example, ridership associated with the North Carolina

trains increases to more than twice the Baseline and ticket revenue associated with the North

Carolina trains increases more than three-fold. These higher increases in ticket revenue

reflect the greater level of improvement seen by long distance trips leaving North Carolina,

through increased frequency and the significantly faster travel times offered by the new SLine, and the 25% higher fares. Revenue on the Virginia service also increases, but ridership

remains essentially the same because some activity shifts to the new SEHSR trains between

Richmond and points north of Richmond. This revenue increase again reflects the 25%

higher fares.

The Baseline with Additional Service shows the impact of providing added service to

Asheville, Wilmington, Newport News, Norfolk, and Roanoke. Within Virginia in particular, this

added service results in a doubling of ridership and ticket revenue among the Virginia trains.

In this case, since new high speed service is not being implemented, fares remain the same

so the ridership and revenue impact are relatively similar. The Full Build with Additional

Service shows the combined impact of SEHSR and added service to Asheville, Wilmington,

Newport News, Norfolk, and Roanoke. Not surprisingly, this alternative generates the most

ridership and ticket revenue.

Exhibits 7.3 through 7.6 summarize forecasts for years 2013 through 2040, using the following

implementation schedule:

x Current Service through 2016

x Baseline Service 2017-2024

x Full Build Service 2025-2040

Exhibits 7.3 and 7.4 provide ridership and ticket revenue forecasts by year that do not include

any of the additional services and Exhibits 7.5 and 7.6 provide ridership and ticket revenue

forecasts by year that include the additional services starting in 2017.
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

43

Exhibit 7.1 Summary of 2030 Forecast Results

Baseline Baseline + Full Build3 +

(No Build) Full Build3add'l service4add'l service4

Forecast Year 2030 2030 2030 2030

Ridership

North Carolina Service

Charlotte Trains1996,100 2,075,500 1,039,700 2,124,700

Wilmington Trains10 0 37,700 41,000

Asheville Trains10 0 32,600 33,600

Virginia Service

Richmond/Hampton Roads Trains 808,300 805,600 1,426,500 1,383,200

Lynchburg/Roanoke Trains 241,300 261,600 656,000 653,000

Amtrak Long Distance Trains2241,900 241,900 243,300 240,100

TOTAL - Ridership 2,287,600 3,384,600 3,435,800 4,475,600

Ticket Revenue (2013$)

North Carolina Service

Charlotte Trains 39,034,000 138,667,000 40,676,000 141,719,000

Wilmington Trains 0 0 584,000 745,000

Asheville Trains 0 0 491,000 574,000

Virginia Service

Richmond/Hampton Roads Trains 45,947,000 57,799,000 84,156,000 97,580,000

Lynchburg/Roanoke Trains 15,070,000 16,474,000 45,517,000 45,257,000

Amtrak Long Distance Trains230,474,000 30,460,000 30,638,000 30,376,000

TOTAL - Ticket Revenue 130,525,000 243,400,000 202,062,000 316,251,000

Notes:

1

Asheville & Wilm services require a cross platform transfer to Charlotte trains and are counted separately

2

Activity from NEC through NC only; includes connecting buses

3

Full Build scenarios include SEHSR service for 8 round trips Chrl to Ral, w/3 continuing to NY via S-Line

between Petersburg & Raleigh (and a 4th round trip that operates only Ral to NY via S-Line between

Petersburg & Raleigh), and 1 (the Carolinian) continuing to NY via the A-Line

4

Additional services for NC include connecting service to Asheville and Wilmington; Additional services for

VA include 6 add'l round trips from Newport News, with connecting round trips from Norfolk; extending

Lynchburg service to Roanoke and adding 1 add'l round trip
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

44

Exhibit 7.2 Summary of 2040 Forecast Results

Baseline Baseline + Full Build3 +

(No Build) Full Build3add'l service4add'l service4

Forecast Year 2040 2040 2040 2040

Ridership

North Carolina Service

Charlotte Trains11,234,200 2,526,900 1,287,500 2,586,300

Wilmington Trains10 0 46,400 50,100

Asheville Trains10 0 40,600 41,700

Virginia Service

Richmond/Hampton Roads Trains 915,200 911,100 1,604,900 1,555,500

Lynchburg/Roanoke Trains 278,300 301,200 746,800 743,300

Amtrak Long Distance Trains2280,900 282,400 282,200 280,100

TOTAL - Ridership 2,708,600 4,021,600 4,008,400 5,257,000

Ticket Revenue (2013$)

North Carolina Service

Charlotte Trains 47,363,000 165,575,000 49,328,000 169,148,000

Wilmington Trains 0 0 737,000 927,000

Asheville Trains 0 0 609,000 712,000

Virginia Service

Richmond/Hampton Roads Trains 51,622,000 64,867,000 93,769,000 108,732,000

Lynchburg/Roanoke Trains 17,246,000 18,825,000 51,314,000 51,017,000

Amtrak Long Distance Trains235,189,000 35,277,000 35,357,000 35,172,000

TOTAL - Ticket Revenue 151,420,000 284,544,000 231,114,000 365,708,000

Notes:

1

Asheville & Wilm services require a cross platform transfer to Charlotte trains and are counted separately

2

Activity from NEC through NC only; includes connecting buses

3

Full Build scenarios include SEHSR service for 8 round trips Chrl to Ral, w/3 continuing to NY via S-Line

between Petersburg & Raleigh (and a 4th round trip that operates only Ral to NY via S-Line between

Petersburg & Raleigh), and 1 (the Carolinian) continuing to NY via the A-Line

4

Additional services for NC include connecting service to Asheville and Wilmington; Additional services for

VA include 6 add'l round trips from Newport News, with connecting round trips from Norfolk; extending

Lynchburg service to Roanoke and adding 1 add'l round trip
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

45

Exhibit 7.3 2013-2040 Ridership Forecasts without Additional Services

Exhibit 7.4 2013-2040 Ticket Revenue Forecasts without Additional Services

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Annual Ridership (millions)

NC Trains

NC+VA Trains

Baseline

Full Build

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Annual Ticket Revenue (millions 2013$)

NC Trains

NC+VA Trains

Baseline

Full Build
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

46

Exhibit 7.5 2013-2040 Ridership Forecasts with Additional Services

Exhibit 7.6 2013-2040 Ticket Revenue Forecasts with Additional Services

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Annual Ridership (millions)

NC Trains

NC+VA Trains

Baseline w/

Add' Service

Full Build w/

Add' Service

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Annual Ticket Revenue (millions 2013$)

NC Trains

NC+VA Trains

Baseline w/

Add' Service

Full Build w/

Add' Service
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

47

8. Appendix

Exhibit 8.1 Study Area Zones Description

Zone Description (County)

1 Worcester, MA

2 Middlesex, MA

3 Essex, MA

4 Norfolk, MA

5 Suffolk, MA

6 Bristol, MA

7 Plymouth, MA

8 Washington, RI

9 Bristol+Kent+Newport, RI

10 Providence, RI

11 Middlesex, CT

12 New Haven, CT

13 New London, CT

14 Fairfield, CT

15 Westchester, NY

16 Rockland, NY

17 Putnam, NY

18 Morris, NJ

19 Bergen, NJ

20 Passaic, NJ

21 Sussex, NJ

22 Warren, NJ

23 Essex, NJ

24 Hunterdon, NJ

25 Somerset, NJ

26 Union, NJ

27 Hudson, NJ

28 Bronx+Kings+New York+Richmond+Queens,NY

29 Nassau, NY

30 Suffolk, NY

31 Monmouth, NJ

32 Mercer, NJ

33 Middlesex, NJ

34 Bucks, PA

35 Ocean, NJ

36 Burlington, NJ
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

48

Zone Description (County)

37 Philadelphia, PA

38 Montgomery, PA

39 Atlantic, NJ

40 Gloucester, NJ

41 Camden, NJ

42 Chester, PA

43 Delaware, PA

44 Salem, NJ

45 New Castle, DE

46 Cumberland, NJ

47 Cape May, NJ

48 Kent, DE

49 Sussex, DE

50 Cecil, MD

51 Kent, MD

52 Caroline, MD

53 Queen Annes, MD

54 Somerset, MD

55 Worcester, MD

56 Wicomico, MD

57 Dorchester, MD

58 Talbot, MD

59 Northampton, VA

60 Accomack, VA

61 Harford, MD

62 Baltimore, MD

63 Carroll, MD

64 Frederick, MD

65 Baltimore City, MD

66 Loudoun, VA

67 Howard, MD

68 Montgomery, MD

69 Washington, DC

70 Alexandria, VA

71 Arlington, VA

72 Fairfax+Fairfax City+Falls Church, VA

73 Prince Georges, MD

76 Anne Arundel, MD

77 Calvert, MD

78 St Marys, MD
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

49

Zone Description (County)

79 Charles, MD

80 Prince William+Manassas Park+Manassas City, VA

81 Fauquier, VA

82 Warren, VA

83 Shenandoah, VA

84 Clarke, VA

85 Frederick+Winchester, VA

86 Culpeper, VA

87 Rappahannock, VA

88 Page, VA

89 Madison, VA

90 Pendleton, WV

91 Rockingham+Harrisonburg , VA

92 Stafford, VA

93 King George, VA

94 Westmoreland, VA

95 Spotsylvania+Fredericksburg, VA

96 Greene, VA

97 Orange, VA

98 Caroline, VA

99 Essex, VA

100 Richmond, VA

101 Northumberland, VA

102 King And Queen, VA

103 King William, VA

104 Lancaster, VA

105 Middlesex, VA

106 W.Hanover, VA

107 Central. Hanover, VA

108 W.Hanover, VA

109 Louisa, VA

110 Albemarle+Charlottesville, VA

111 W.Goochland, VA

112 Fluvanna, VA

113 Augusta+Staunton City+Waynesboro, VA

114 Highland, VA

115 Bath, VA

116 Rockbridge+Lexington City+Buena Vista, VA

117 Nelson, VA

118 Amherst, VA
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

50

Zone Description (County)

119 Buckingham, VA

120 Cumberland, VA

121 Appomattox, VA

122 Prince Edward, VA

123 Nottoway, VA

126 Amelia, VA

128 S. Prince George, VA

129 Dinwiddie, VA

130 E.Goochland, VA

131 W. Powhatan, VA

132 E. Powhatan, VA

133 Richmond City+W.Henrico, +N.Chesterfield, VA

134 S.W. Henrico, VA

135 S.Chesterfield, VA

144 Hopewell City+Colonial Hghts Cty+Petersburg+N.Prince

George+E.Chesterfield+N.Dinwiddie, VA

149 York+Newport News+Poquoson City+Hampton City+James

City+Williamsburg, VA

154 Mathews, VA

155 Gloucester, VA

156 S.Charles City, VA

157 W.New Kent, VA

158 N.Charles City, VA

159 E.New Kent, VA

160 Gloucester, VA

161 N. James City VA

163 Surry, VA

164 Isle Of Wight, VA

165 Norfolk City+Portsmouth+N.E Chesapeake, VA

166 Virginia Beach, VA

169 Chesapeake, VA

171 N.Suffolk City, VA

174 Southampton+Franklin City, VA

175 Sussex, VA

176 Brunswick, VA

177 Greensville+Emporia City, VA

178 Lunenburg, VA

179 Mecklenburg, VA

180 Charlotte, VA

181 Halifax+South Boston, VA
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

51

Zone Description (County)

182 Bedford+Bedford City, VA

183 Lynchburg City+Campbell, VA

184 Alleghany+Clifton Forge+Covington City, VA

185 Botetourt, VA

186 Craig, VA

187 Pittsylvania+Danville City, VA

188 Franklin, VA

189 Henry+Martinsville, VA

190 Roanoke+Roanoke City+Salem City, VA

191 Radford City+Montgomery, VA

192 Floyd, VA

193 Patrick, VA

194 Giles, VA

195 Pulaski, VA

196 Carroll+Galax City,VA

197 Bland, VA

198 Wythe, VA

199 Grayson, VA

200 Tazewell, VA

201 Russell, VA

202 Smyth, VA

203 Washington, VA

204 Buchanan, VA

205 Dickenson, VA

206 Wise+Norton City, VA

207 Lee, VA

208 Scott, VA

209 Ashe, NC

210 Alleghany, NC

211 Wilkes, NC

212 Watauga, NC

213 Avery, NC

214 Mitchell, NC

215 Caldwell, NC

216 Yancey, NC

217 Alexander, NC

218 Burke, NC

219 Mcdowell, NC

220 Catawba, NC

221 Madison, NC
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

52

Zone Description (County)

222 Buncombe, NC

223 Haywood, NC

224 Swain, NC

225 Jackson, NC

226 Henderson, NC

227 Graham, NC

228 Transylvania, NC

229 Macon, NC

230 Cherokee, NC

231 Clay, NC

232 Lincoln, NC

233 Gaston, NC

234 Rutherford, NC

235 Cleveland, NC

236 Polk, NC

237 Stokes, NC

238 Yadkin, NC

239 Forsyth, NC

240 Davie, NC

241 Davidson, NC

242 Rowan, NC

243 Surry, NC

244 Iredell, NC

245 S.Mecklenburg, NC

247 N.Mecklenburg, NC

250 Union, NC

251 Cabarrus, NC

252 Moore, NC

253 Montgomery, NC

254 Stanly, NC

255 Anson, NC

256 Richmond, NC

257 Guilford, NC

258 Randolph, NC

259 Rockingham, NC

260 Alamance, NC

261 Orange, NC

262 Durham, NC

263 Person, NC

264 Caswell, NC
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

53

Zone Description (County)

265 Chatham, NC

266 Lee, NC

267 Warren, NC

268 Vance, NC

269 Granville, NC

270 Franklin, NC

271 Central Wake, NC (Raleigh)

272 S.E Wake, NC

273 Johnston, NC

274 Harnett, NC

275 Cumberland, NC

276 Hoke, NC

277 Scotland, NC

278 Halifax, NC

279 Nash, NC

280 Edgecombe, NC

281 Wilson, NC

282 Northampton, NC

283 Hertford, NC

284 Bertie, NC

285 Pitt, NC

286 Beaufort, NC

287 Greene, NC

288 Wayne, NC

289 Lenoir, NC

290 Craven, NC

291 Sampson, NC

292 Jones, NC

293 Duplin, NC

294 Onslow, NC

295 Robeson, NC

296 Bladen, NC

297 Pender, NC

298 Columbus, NC

299 New Hanover, NC

300 Brunswick, NC

301 Gates, NC

302 Camden, NC

303 Currituck, NC

304 Pasquotank, NC
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

54

Zone Description (County)

305 Perquimans, NC

306 Chowan, NC

307 Dare, NC

308 Martin, NC

309 Tyrrell, NC

310 Washington, NC

311 Pamlico, NC

312 Hyde, NC

313 Carteret, NC

314 Oconee, SC

315 Spartanburg, SC

316 Laurens, SC

317 Anderson, SC

318 Pickens, SC

319 Greenville, SC

320 Union, SC

321 Newberry, SC

322 Edgefield, SC

323 Abbeville+Greenwoord+Mccormick, SC

324 Cherokee, SC

325 Saluda, SC

326 Richland, SC

327 Lexington, SC

328 Calhoun, SC

329 Orangeburg, SC

330 Barnwell, SC

331 Aiken, SC

332 Bamberg, SC

333 Kershaw, SC

334 Lancaster, SC

335 York, SC

336 Chester, SC

337 Fairfield, SC

338 Dillon, SC

339 Marlboro, SC

340 Chesterfield, SC

341 Darlington, SC

342 Florence, SC

343 Clarendon, SC

344 Sumter, SC
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

55

Zone Description (County)

345 Lee, SC

346 Horry, SC

347 Marion, SC

348 Williamsburg, SC

349 Georgetown, SC

350 Berkeley+Charleston, SC

351 Dorchester, SC

352 Colleton, SC

353 Hampton, SC

354 Beaufort, SC

355 Jasper, SC

356 Allendale, SC

357 Whitfield+Catoosa+Walker+Dade, GA

358 Murray+Gordon, GA

359 Rabun+Towns+Fannin+Union+Gilmer, GA

360 Greene, GA

361 Morgan, GA

362 Fulton+De Kalb, GA

363 Cobb, GA

364 Gwinnett, GA

365 Douglas, GA

366 Haralson+Carroll, GA

367 Chattooga+Floyd+Polk, GA

368 Bartow, GA

369 Cherokee, GA

370 Lumpkin+Dawson, GA

371 Habersham+White, GA

372 Oconee, GA

373 Walton, GA

374 Rockdale+Newton, GA

375 Henry, GA

376 Clayton+Fayette, GA

377 Jackson+Barrow, GA

378 Hall, GA

379 Forsyth, GA

380 Paulding, GA

381 Banks, GA

382 Stephens, GA

383 Franklin, GA

384 Madison, GA
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

56

Zone Description (County)

385 Clarke, GA

386 Oglethorpe, GA

387 Hart, GA

388 Elbert, GA

389 Wilkes+Lincoln, GA

390 Butts+Spalding+Pike+Lamar+Monroe+Upson, GA

391 Coweta+Heard+Meriwether+Troup+Harris, GA

392 Twiggs+Laurens+Bleckley+Dodge+Wheeler+Telfair, GA

393 Glascock+Jefferson+Washington+Johnson, GA

394 Wilkinson, GA

395 Jasper+Putnam+Baldwin+Jones, GA

396 Hancock, GA

397 Taliaferro+Warren, GA

398 Bibb, GA

399 Richmond, GA

400 Columbia, GA

401 Mcduffie, GA

402 Crawford+Peach+Houston+Pulaski+Dooly+Wilcox+Crisp, GA

403 Talbot+Marion+Taylor+Schley, GA

404 Muscogee+Chattahoochee, GA

405 Toombs+Montgomery+Tattnall+Evans, GA

406 Wayne, GA

407 Jeff Davis+Appling+Coffee+Bacon+Pierce+Ware+Atkinson, GA

408 Turner+Ben Hill+Worth+Irwin+Tift+Berrien+Cook+Colquitt,GA

409 Charlton, GA

410 Miller+Early+Baker+Mitchell+Decatur+Grady+Thomas+Seminole, GA

411 Lee+Dougherty, GA

412 Webster+Stewart+Sumter+Quitman+Terrell+Randolph+Clay+Calhoun,GA

413 Clinch+Lanier+Lowndes+Echols+Brooks, GA

414 Brantley, GA

415 Burke, GA

416 Screven, GA

417 Emanuel+Bulloch+Candler+Treutlen, GA

418 Jenkins, GA

419 Chatham, GA

420 Effingham, GA

421 Bryan, GA

422 Liberty, GA

423 Mcintosh, GA

424 Long, GA
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

57

Zone Description (County)

425 Glynn, GA

426 Camden, GA

427 S.W Wake, NC

428 N. Wake, NC

Exhibit 8.2 Airport Codes and Names

Code Name

ACY Atlantic City, NJ

ATL Atlanta, GA

BOS Boston, MA

BWI Baltimore, MD

CHO Charlottesville, VA

CHS Charleston, SC

CLT Charlotte , NC

DCA Arlington, VA

EWR Newark, NJ

GSO Greensboro, NC

HFD Hartford, CT

HVN New Haven, CT

IAD Dulles, VA

ILG Wilmington, DE

ILM Wilmington, NC

JFK New York-JFK, NY

LGA New York-LGA, NY

LNS Lancaster, PA

LYH Lynchburg, VA

MCN Macon, GA

PGV Greenville, NC

PHL Philadelphia, PA

PVD Providence, RI

RDU Raleigh/Durham, NC

RIC Richmond, VA

SAV Savannah, GA

SPA Spartanburg, SC
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

58

Exhibit 8.3 Rail Station Codes and Names

Code Station Code Station

ALX ALEXANDRIA, VA MRN MARION, NC

ASH ASHEVILLE, NC MET METROPARK, NJ

ASD ASHLAND, VA MRH MOREHEAD CITY, NC

ATL ATLANTA, GA MGN MORGANTON, NC

BAL BALTIMORE, MD MYS MYSTIC, CT

BWI BALT-WASH INTL. AIRPORT, MD NBN NEW BERN, NC

BMT BLACK MOUNTAIN, NC NCR NEW CARROLLTON, MD

BBY BOSTON - BACK BAY, MA NHV NEW HAVEN, CT

BOS BOSTON (SO. STA), MA NLC NEW LONDON, CT

BRP BRIDGEPORT, CT NRO NEW ROCHELLE, NY

BRG BURGAW, NC NYP NEW YORK (PENN STA), NY

BCV BURKE CENTER, VA EWR NEWARK AIRPORT, NJ

BNC BURLINGTON, NC NWK NEWARK, NJ

CAM CAMDEN, SC NPN NEWPORT NEWS, VA

CYN CARY, NC NPD NEWPORT NEWS-DT, VA

CHS CHARLESTON, SC NFK NORFOLK, VA

CLT CHARLOTTE, NC OFT OLD FORT, NC

CVS CHARLOTTSVILLE, VA OSB OLD SAYBROOK, CT

CSN CLEMSON, SC PMB PEMBROKE, NC

CLB COLUMBIA, SC PTB PETERSBURG, VA

CNV CONOVER, NC PHL PHILADELPHIA 30TH ST, PA

CLP CULPEPER, VA PVD PROVIDENCE, RI

DAN DANVILLE, VA QAN QUANTICO, VA

DNK DENMARK, SC RGH RALEIGH, NC

DIL DILLON, SC RVM RICHMOND-MAIN ST, VA

DNC DURHAM, NC RVR RICHMOND-STAPLES MILL, VA

FAY FAYETTEVILLE, NC RNK ROANOKE, VA

FLO FLORENCE, SC RMT ROCKY MOUNT, NC

FBG FREDERICKSBURG, VA RTE ROUTE 128 (BOSTON), MA

GNS GAINESVILLE, GA SAL SALISBURY, NC

GAS GASTONIA, NC SAV SAVANNAH, GA

GBO GOLDSBORO, NC SSM SELMA/SMITHFIELD, NC

GRO GREENSBORO, NC SOP SOUTHERN PINES, NC

GNV GREENVILLE, NC SPB SPARTANBURG, SC

GRV GREENVILLE, SC STM STAMFORD, CT

HAM HAMLET, NC SVN STATESVILLE, NC

HLK HAVELOCK, NC SUF SUFFOLK, VA

HNC HENDERSON, NC TCA TOCCOA, GA
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

59

Code Station Code Station

HIC HICKORY, NC TRE TRENTON, NJ

HPT HIGH POINT, NC VLD VALDESE, NC

HLB HILLSBOROUGH, NC WLC WALLACE, NC

JKV JACKSONVILLE, NC WAR WARSAW, NC

JSP JESUP, GA WAS WASHINGTON, DC

KAN KANNAPOLIS, NC WLY WESTERLY, RI

KIN KINGSTON, RI WBG WILLIAMSBURG, VA

KTR KINGSTREE, SC WIL WILMINGTON, DE

KNS KINSTON, NC WMN WILMINGTON, NC

LCS LA CROSSE, VA WLN WILSON, NC

LYH LYNCHBURG, VA WDB WOODBRIDGE, VA

MSS MANASSAS, VA YEM YEMASSEE, SC
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

60

Exhibit 8.4 Auto Survey Program
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

61
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

62
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

63
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

64

Exhibit 8.5 Airport Survey Program
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

65
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

66
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

67
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

68
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

69

Exhibit 8.6 Rail Survey Program
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

70
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

71
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

72
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

73
Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013

74
Summary SEHSR Service Net Operating Income (using Vanness Model) 

SEHSR Passenger Services (full build SEHSR trains only)

Full Build

RESULTS OF OPERATIONS 19 29

2030 2040

Key Metrics

Inflated YOY NON DEF. COMPOSITE GDP INFLATOR 2.4% 2.4%

Frequency AVG. DAILY ROUND TRIPS - ALL SERVICES 9 9

Ridership

Carolinian 480,000 579,200

Piedmont 379,800 483,000

ON SEHSR 1,215,700 1,464,700

OFF Regional 0 0

2,075,500 2,526,900

TOTAL REVENUES incl. Food & Beverage (in millions) 206.6 313.1

OPERATION & MAINTENANCE EXPENSE (in millions) Factor Driver

Direct & Allocated AMTRAK Expenses:

Train & Engine Labor $ Train Starts (Adjusted) 1,765.00 19.1 24.2

Fuel (Carolinian) $ 3.50 Train Mile & Fuel Matrix 3.5 4.4

Onboard Service Labor (ex F&B supplies) $ Train Starts 585.00 6.8 8.5

F&B Supplies $ Carolinian + SEHSR Riders 0.73 2.7 4.1

Advert. Reservations, Sales & Commissions $ Riders 4.50 13.9 21.4

Amtrak Stations Expense $ Riders 8.04 13.3 20.5

Yard Expense - MOE turns + yard ops. $ Train Starts 1,068.00 3.4 4.3

Regional Security & Police Allocation $ Train Starts 131.50 0.8 1.0

Insurances $ Carolinian + SEHSR Riders 0.78 2.8 4.3

Amtrak Alloc. Equipment Maintenance $ Carolinian Train Starts 4,114.00 2.7 3.4

NEC Access Charge $ Carolinian+ SEHSR Psgr. Mi. 0.25 40.8 59.9

Foreign RR On Time Incentives $ Train Miles 2.00 4.7 5.9

Total Amtrak "Route Costs" 114.3 161.9

North Carolina Expenses:

NCDOT Ticketing machines Flat est. 300,000 0.9 1.1

NCDOT Stations Exp. Flat est. 650,000 2.7 3.0

Fuel Piedmont $ Train Mile & Fuel Matrix 3.50 4.7 6.0

ON Fuel SEHSR $ Train Mile & Fuel Matrix 3.50 14.5 18.4

ON Richmond - Washington Track Fees $ Per Train Mile 118 Miles 3.00 1.8 2.2

Allocated. NSRR/NCRR Track Maintenance Expense Per contract 2.2 2.8

ON Recurring Maintenance Raleigh to Petersburg $ Per Mile 207 Trk. Miles 35,000 10.8 13.6

ON Recurring Maintenance Petersburg to Richmond $ Per Mile 30 Trk. Miles 35,000 1.6 2.0

Recurring Maintenance of Rolling Stock: 0.0 0.0

Base Labor $ Per Maintained Unit 132,685 13.2 16.7

Extra Labor $ Flat Est. 194,000 0.7 0.9

Parts $ Per Maintained Unit 46,342 4.6 5.8

Insurances $ Per Maintained Unit 34,646 2.3 2.3

Total North Carolina Direct Expense 60.0 75.0

Indirect / Overhead Expenses:

Train & Engine Labor 33.5% T & E Expense 6.4 8.1

Maintenance of Equpment 27.1% Car & Loco Mtce and tur 1.6 2.1

On Board Service 10.0% Onboard labor and provis 2.6 3.4

Police $ 0.005 per passenger mile 0.7 0.9

Marketing (Carolinian route on NEC) 2.8% Total Revenue 5.5 8.2

Marketing (Piedmont) 1.9% Total Revenue 0.2 0.4

General & Administrative 2.0% Route Costs 2.3 3.2

 Total Amtrak Additives 19.3 26.3

Total O&M Expense 193.6 263.2

Revenue from SEHSR Track Fees Charged

ON Track Fees - CSXT Wt. Avg. Per Rev. Car Mile 0.490 7.1 9.0

ON Track Fees - Amtrak Per Revenue Car Mile 0.750 2.5 3.1

Operating Surplus / (Shortfall) Revenue minus O&M Exp. 22.6 62.1
Summary SEHSR Service Net Operating Income (using Vanness Model) 

ON FRA Captial Asset Renewal (depreciation)

Piedmont Equipment Renewal Capital Per Expansion As Assets activated (6.0) (6.0)

SEHSR Infrastructure Renewal Replacement As Assets activated (5.7) (5.7)

SEHSR Equipment Renewal Renew/Replace As Assets activated (5.2) (5.2)

Total Capital Renewal (16.8) (16.8)

Financial Operating Income (Loss) after Depreciation 5.8 45.3

Fare Box Coverage Ratio (Total Revenues / Total O&M Expense) 107% 119%

Date May 20, 2014