### ATTACHMENT A

PROJECTION FACTORS F OR POINT AND AREA SOURC ES

# PROJECTION FACTORS FOR POINT AND AREA SOURCES

Final

Prepared for:
Texas Commission on Environmental Quality Air Quality Division MC-164, P.O. Box 13087 Austin, TX 78711-3087

August 16, 2010 Eastern Research Grou p, Inc.

## ERG No. 0227.03.027.006 TCEQ Contract No. 582-07-84003 Work Order No. 582-07-84003-FY10-27



# PROJECTION FACTORS FOR POINT AND AREA SOURCES

Final

Prepared for:
Texas Commission on Environmental Quality Air Quality Division MC-164, P.O. Box 13087

Austin, TX 78711-3087 Attn: Mr. Greg Lauderdale

Prepared by:
Eastern Research Group, Inc. 10860 Gold Center Drive, Suite 275 Rancho Cordova, CA 95670

August 16, 2010TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## i 

# TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section Page

ES.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .....................................................................................................1 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... ....1 2.0 DATA COLLECTION ............................................................................................................ 2 2.1 Economy.com Economic Data and Projections............................................................ 3 2.2 Texas Industrial Production Index................................................................................ 3 2.3 Annual Energy Outlook ................................................................................................ 4 2.4 EGAS Model................................................................................................................. 4 2.5 U.S. EPA Projections-Related Research....................................................................... 4 2.6 Texas State Comptroller Data....................................................................................... 5 2.7 Texas Workforce Commission ..................................................................................... 5 2.8 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.................................................................................... 5 2.9 Industry Associations.................................................................................................... 5 3.0 DEVELOPMENT OF POINT SO URCE GROWTH FACTORS ..........................................6 3.1 More Significant Point Source Sectors......................................................................... 7 3.2 Less Significant Point Source Sectors ........................................................................ 12 3.3 All Point Source Sectors ............................................................................................. 12 4.0 DEVELOPMENT OF AREA SO URCE GROWTH FACTORS .........................................13 4.1 Adjustment from SIC Codes to NAICS Codes........................................................... 13 4.2 Expanded Use of Economy.com Output Data ............................................................ 13 4.3 Expanded Use of Annual Energy Outlook Data......................................................... 31 4.4 Use of Texas-Specific Population Projections............................................................ 32 4.5 Use of Flat/No Growth Factors................................................................................... 33 5.0 DATA ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................. .34 6.0 FORMATTED GROWTH FACTORS .................................................................................42 7.0 CAVEATS ASSOCIATED WITH USE OF GROWTH FACTORS ...................................42 8.0 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. .....43

Tables Page

Table 3-1. Most Significant VOC Point Source Sectors in TCEQ Point Source Inventory .......... 7 Table 3-2. Most Significant NO x 

## Point Source Sectors in TCEQ Point Source Inventory............ 7 Table 3-3. Comparison of Economy.com Out put-Based and WDA Empl oyment-Based Growth Factors between 2006 and 2016.................................................................................. 10 Table 4-1. Area Source Category Projection Data Assignments ................................................. 14
Figures Page

Figure 4-1. Range of Population Growth Factors for Texas ...................................................... 33 Figure 4-2. Population Growth Factors fo r 10 Most Populous Counties in Texas..................... 34 Figure 5-1. Top Five State-Level Point Source VOC Categories .............................................. 36 Figure 5-2. Top Five State-Leve l Area Source VOC Categories ............................................... 36 Figure 5-3. State-Level Oil & Gas Point Source VOC Categories............................................. 37TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## ii 

# TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)

Figures Page

Figure 5-4. State-Level Oil & Ga s Area Source VOC Categories ............................................. 37 Figure 5-5. Top Five State-Level Point Source CO Categories ................................................. 38 Figure 5-6. Top Five State-Leve l Area Source CO Categories.................................................. 38 Figure 5-7. State-Level Oil & Gas Point Source CO Categories ............................................... 39 Figure 5-8. State-Level Oil & Ga s Area Source CO Categories ................................................ 39 Figure 5-9. Top Five State-Level Point Source NO x 

## Categories................................................ 40 Figure 5-10. Top Five St ate-Level Area Source NO x 

## Categories................................................ 40 Figure 5-11. State-Level Oil & Gas Point Source NO x 

## Categories ............................................. 41 Figure 5-12. State-Level Oil & Gas Area Source NO x 

## Categories.............................................. 41TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## iii 

# ACRONYMS

AEO Annual Energy Outlook BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis
BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics
CO carbon monoxide EAC Early Action Compact EGAS Economic Growth Analysis System EIA Energy Information Administration EIIP Emission Inventory Improvement Program ERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas ERG Eastern Research Group, Inc.
INGAA Interstate Natural Gas Association of America NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard
NAICS North American Indus try Classification System NGSA Natural Gas Supply Association
NO x 

## nitrogen oxides PUCT Public Utility Commission of Texas RA Rocky Mountain Power Area REMI Regional Economic Growth, Inc.
SCC Source Classification Code SERC Southeastern Electric Reliability Council
SIC Standard Industrial Classification SIP State Implementation Plan
SPP Southwest Power Pool
TCC Texas Chemical Council TCEQ Texas Commission fo r Environmental Quality
TIPI Texas Industrial Production Index U.S. EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency VOC volatile organic compound WDA Workforce Development AreaTCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 1 ES.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG) completed the development of a comprehensive suite of growth factors for point and area sources. The growth factors were based upon a base year of 2005 and were developed for each ye ar between 2006 and 2035. Various demographic and economic data were used to develop the grow th factors, including: energy projections from the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook , economy forecasts from Economy.com, Texas-specific population projections, etc. In addition, an alysis was conducted to demonstrate growth factor variances.

The developed growth factors were submitted to TCEQ along with the final report. The point source growth factors and associated data were provided in Microsoft Access. The area source growth factors and associat ed data were provided in a TexAER loadable format, as well as in a Microsoft Access format, where all fields are complete and all mandatory fields have been quality assured. All result ing TexAER loadable files will be entered into TexAER. Any errors or discrepancies identified in the TexAER loadable format or loading process will be corrected by ERG, or otherwise addr essed in consultati on with the TCEQ.

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Emission inventories are a core component of air quality analyses. Inventories are used to estimate the quantity of emissions generated by a wide range of s ource types (i.e., point sources, area sources, on-road motor vehicles, and nonroad mobile sources ) and pollutants (e.g., criteria air pollutants, hazardous ai r pollutants, etc.). Inventories are used as input s to air quality models for simulating air quality concentrations based on “business as usual” and/or control scenarios for determining future-year complian ce with federal National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) within Stat e Implementation Plans (SIPs).

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) uses base year inventories and future year projections to de velop SIPs. In general, future year inventory projections are estimated by applying growth and control factors to base year emissions. As part of a project completed in 2005, Eastern Research Group, Inc. (E RG) developed a suite of area source growth factors through 2020 (and backcas ting factors for years dating b ack to 1990) based upon a 2002 base year. For ongoing SIP develo pment, TCEQ now needs to estimate future year emissions out to 2035 for both point and area sources. As a result, the purpose of this project is theTCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 2 development of growth factors for cale ndar years 2006 through 2035 based upon a 2005 base

year.

The remainder of this report describes in detail the steps involved with developing the Texas county-level point and ar ea source growth factors. Th e remainder of the report is presented in the following sections:

• Section 2.0 describes the collect ion of data used to deve lop the point and area source growth factors;

• Section 3.0 explains the development of the point source growth factors;

• Section 4.0 explains the development of the area source growth factors;

• Section 5.0 briefly describes the data an alysis that was conducted following the development of the preliminary growth factors;

• Section 6.0 explains the final growth factor formatting;

• Section 7.0 identifies a number of important caveats associated with the use of growth factors; and

• Section 8.0 lists all references used in th e development of the point and area source growth factors.

2.0 DATA COLLECTION
As part of the previous 2005 project, area source growth fact ors were developed using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S . EPA) Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) (U.S. EPA, 2006) using data and model inputs from the following sources:

• Policy Insight model from Regional Economic Growth, Inc. (REMI);

• Economy.com economic projections; and

• Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)

. The development of point source and area sour ce category growth factors for calendar years 2006 through 2035 for this project built upon the 2005 project.

The project work plan (ERG, 2010) specifically indicated that the following data sources would be obtained and analyzed:

• Economy.com economic data and projections;

• Texas Industrial Production Index (TIPI);

• Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) ; and

• Internal data mappings from the EGAS model.

Beyond these identified data sources, ERG al so examined and analyzed a number of other supplemental sources of data under Task 2 (Obtain, Analyze, and Compile Growth Factor Data) of the project scope. A ll data sources reviewed for this project are described below.TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 3 2.1 Economy.com Economic Data and Projections

Historical economic data a nd future year economic projections were obtained from Moody’s Economy.com (Economy.com, 2010). Econom y.com’s future year projections are recalibrated each month based upon the most recent monthly economic indicators. As a result, economic changes are gradually reflected over time in the future year projections. For instance, at the national level, future ye ar projections are currently bein g adjusted every month to account for the ongoing economic recession and other regional impacts. At the local level, the economic and demographic impacts of Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 first appeared in the future year projections for New Orleans and southern Loui siana, only. Over time, the long-term ripple
effects of the resultant economic downturn and population shifts graduall y appeared in Texas and the broader region. Likewise, the effects of the ongoing Deepwater Ho rizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico have just starte d to appear in the future foreca sts for metropolitan areas located in Southern Louisiana (i.e., New Orleans, Houma, Lafayette, and Lake Charles) and the Florida Panhandle (i.e., Pensacola, Panama City, and Cres tview). It is possible that there may be potential long-term effects on th e oil and petrochemical industry in Houston and Louisiana due to reduced drilling and production, more stringent off-shore permitting, and overall higher costs, but these have not been quantif ied in Economy.com’s future year projections (Di Natale, 2010).

The particular Texas data set obtained from Economy.com was county-level gross product expressed in millions of constant 2000 dol lars for each 4-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code. These data were obtained in April 2010 at no cost through TCEQ’s existing Data Buffet license with Econo my.com. Product output data were obtained because U.S. EPA and the Emission Inventory Impr ovement Program (EIIP) have indicated that the use of product output as a gr owth indicator is preferred over the use of employment, earnings, or value added statis tics (EIIP, 1999). Although econo mic data from REMI‘s Policy Insight model are similar to Economy.com’s data, the Policy Insight model was prohibitively expensive and, therefore, not utilized for this project.

2.2 Texas Industrial Production Index The project work plan identif ied the Texas Industrial Producti on Index (TIPI), produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as a potential source of projections data. Re search found that the TIPI measures the changes in output levels in th e Texas economy for the ma nufacturing (i.e., durable and nondurable goods), mining, and utility sectors on a monthly basis (FRB, 2010). Historical dataTCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 4 are available from 1969 to the present. The TIPI is not intended to be used for forecasting and, thus, projection data were not available from TIPI. Therefore, the TIPI wa s not utilized for this project.

2.3 Annual Energy Outlook The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) annually publishes the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) ; the 2010 version with pr ojections out to 2035 was released in April 2010 (EIA, 2010). The AEO provides sector-specific consumption projections, as well as production projections, at the regional level. Information regarding regional petroleum refining capacity projections is al so available. U.S. EPA staf f working on emission projections
have indicated that AEO is considered to be reliable source of projections data for combustion sources (Chappell and Bollman, 2008; Chappell, 2010). Therefore, the AEO was used extensively for this project.

2.4 EGAS Model Although the EGAS model was not di rectly used to calculate gr owth factors, the internal data mappings of the EGAS Version 5.0 model we re reviewed. These internal data mappings were used as the starting point for the assignmen t of activity data surrogates to specific Source Classification Codes (SCCs) (Pechan, 2004).

2.5 U.S. EPA Projections-Related Research The project work plan indicated that any U. S. EPA research into the relationship of energy- and non-energy-based emissions and the pot ential for growth factor development would be investigated. Since 2007, U.S. EPA has been analyzing a long-held fundamental assumption that economic growth is an appr opriate surrogate for emissions gr owth. In particular, U.S. EPA has been conducting a sect or-level analysis of energy (i.e ., combustion) emissions versus nonenergy (i.e., process) emissions for 10 ke y industries, which included the following:

• Petroleum refining;

• Pulp and paper;

• Iron and steel;

• Cement;

• Primary aluminum;

• Secondary aluminum;

• Black carbon;

• Copper;

• Sulfuric acid; and

• GlassTCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 5 At the time when the project work plan was de veloped, it was expected that the results of U.S. EPA’s analysis would be ava ilable for use in this project. However, this analysis has been undergoing internal U.S. EPA review for the past six months and is still not available for public use (Chappell, 2010). Although U.S. EPA’s analysis could potentially contain some significant findings related to growth factors, these findings could not be incorporated into the Texas growth factors due to the timing of this project.

2.6 Texas State Comptroller Data The Texas State Comptroller has published hist orical and projected state product data for the period from 1990 to 2039 (TexasAhead, 2009). Although this time frame corresponds with the required growth factor pe riod (i.e., 2005 to 2035), the data were only provided at the state level. In addition, the product da ta were only provided at a fairly high level of aggregation (e.g., agriculture, mining, construction, manuf acturing, etc.). Therefore, these data were not utilized for this project.

2.7 Texas Workforce Commission The Texas Workforce Commission published a lim ited set of employment projections for the 28 Workforce Development Areas (WDAs) lo cated in Texas (TWC, 2010). The employment projections covered a 10-year period of time from 2006-2016 and we re disaggregated to the 3- digit NAICS level (with some lim ited details down to the 4-digit NAICS level). Because of the short projection time frame, these data were not used for this project.

2.8 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas was cont acted about long-term industry projections. Specific sector-level projections were not avai lable. However, Federal Reserve Bank staff indicated that over the last 30 years, annual Te xas growth has been approximately 1 percent higher than the national average and it is expected that this trend will continue for the next 20 years (Davalos, 2010; Saving, 2009).

2.9 Industry Associations As part of ERG’s research effort, various i ndustry trade associati ons were contacted to identify potential sources of projections data. In particular, focus was given to five major industry sectors (i.e., electric power generation, transmission, and distribution; oil and gasTCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 6 extraction; basic chemical manufacturing; pe troleum and coal products manufacturing; and natural gas pipeline transportation).

For the electric power generation, transmissi on, and distribution sector, ERG contacted the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) . However, the PUCT does not address electricity generation and sugge sted contacting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). The PUCT is involved with electricity transmission and distribution companies, but does not develop long-term transmission and dist ribution growth projections (Gilbertson, 2010). The ERCOT was also contacted regarding availa ble long-term projections (Gage, 2010). However, ERCOT’s forecast is limited to a 10-y ear plan that was developed using a set of econometric model utilizing weathe r, economic, and demographic data to project the trends of historical load data for the past 6 years (ERCOT, 2009).

For the remaining four major industry sectors (i .e., oil and gas extraction; basic chemical manufacturing; petroleum a nd coal products manufacturing; and natural gas pipeline transportation), ERG contacted the following industry groups:

• Texas Energy Group;

• Texas Alliance of Energy Producers;

• Society of Petroleum Engineers;

• Texas Oil and Gas Association;

• Texas Chemical Council (TCC);

• Clean Coal Technology Foundation of Texas;

• Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA); and

• Interstate Natural Gas Association of America (INGAA).
No projections information was obtaine d from any of these industry groups.

3.0 DEVELOPMENT OF POINT SOURCE GROWTH FACTORS
The development of point source growth f actors was also conducted under Task 2 - Obtain, Analyze, and Compile Growth Factor Data of the project scope. Because of the large number of industry sectors associated with TCEQ’s point source in ventory, a prioritized approach was used to assess the importance of i ndividual point source sectors. Since one of the primary uses of future year projected inventories in Texas will be for ozone SIPs, ERG ranked the existing 2005 TCEQ point source inventor y by volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NO x 

## ) emissions for each sector (as define d by 4-digit NAICS code). The mostTCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 7 significant sectors contributi ng up to a cumulative 90 percen t of the total VOC and NO x 

## emissions are shown in Tables 3-1 and 3-2.

Table 3-1. Most Significant VOC Point S ource Sectors in TCEQ Point Source Inventory

NAICS NAICS Description Annual VOC Emissions % of Total Cumulative % 3241 Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing 30,455.8 21.14% 21.14% 3251 Basic Chemical Manufact uring 22,451.2 15.58% 36.72% 2111 Oil and Gas Extraction 21,453.9 14.89% 51.61% 4931 Warehousing and Storage 7,775.0 5.40% 57.01%

3252 Resin, Synthetic Rubber, and Artificial Synthetic Fibers and Filaments Manufacturing 7,567.9 5.25% 62.26% 4862 Pipeline Transportation of Na tural Gas 5,542.5 3.85% 66.11% 3212 Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufacturing 4,787.1 3.32% 69.43% 3221 Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Mills 4,740.0 3.29% 72.72% 4861 Pipeline Transportation of Crude Oil 4,237.8 2.94% 75.67% 2211 Electric Power Generation, Transmissi on and Distribution 4,057.1 2.82% 78.48% 4247 Petroleum and Petroleum Products Me rchant Wholesalers 3,703.7 2.57% 81.05% 3261 Plastics Product Manufactur ing 3,317.2 2.30% 83.35% 4869 Other Pipeline Transportation 2,105.1 1.46% 84.82% 3211 Sawmills and Wood Preservation 1,379.6 0.96% 85.77% 3273 Cement and Concrete Product Manufacturing 1,327.6 0.92% 86.70% 3323 Architectural and Structural Meta ls Manufacturing 1,149.2 0.80% 87.49%

3371 Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturing 1,075.5 0.75% 88.24% 3313 Alumina and Aluminum Production and Processing 1,023.8 0.71% 88.95% 3315 Foundries 926.4 0.64% 89.59% 2213 Water, Sewage and Other Systems 807.4 0.56% 90.15%

Total 144,069.8 

## Table 3-2. Most Significant NO x 

## Point Source Sectors in TCEQ Point Source Inventory

NAICS NAICS Description Annual NO x 

### Emissions % of Total Cumulative % 2211 Electric Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution 178,101.9 38.77% 38.77% 2111 Oil and Gas Extraction 82,216.3 17.90% 56.67% 3251 Basic Chemical Manufacturing 54,531.7 11.87% 68.54% 3241 Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing 39,061.7 8.50% 77.05% 4862 Pipeline Transportation of Natural Gas 34,676.1 7.55% 84.59% 3273 Cement and Concrete Product Manufacturing 26,422.7 5.75% 90.35%

Total 459,356.7


## Comparison of the two tables shows that all six of the significant NO x 

## source sectors listed in Table 3-2 are also included as signif icant VOC source sectors in Table 3-1. 3.1 More Significant Point Source Sectors Based on the rankings presented in Tables 3- 1 and 3-2, additional detailed research was conducted for the more significant point source s ectors (i.e., top 90 percent of the VOC and NO x 

## point source inventories). As described above, numerous industr y associations were contacted
with minimal success.TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 8 Besides the Economy.com data, the Texas Workforce Commission’s 10-year (2006- 2016) employment projections at the 3-digit NAICS level for the 28 Texas Workforce Development Areas (WDAs) were the only data th at were reasonably comparable in terms of
level of detail. Growth factors derived fr om the Texas Workforce Commission’s 10-year employment projections were compared to sim ilar growth factors derived from Economy.com data (aggregated to the level of the 28 WDAs ) for the same period. The 28 WDAs and their
associated counties are as follows:

• Alamo – Atacosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Frio, Gillespie, Guadalupe, Karnes, Kendall, Kerr, Medina, Wilson

• Brazos Valley – Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Leon, Madison, Robertson, Washington

• Cameron County – Cameron

• Capital Area – Travis

• Central Texas – Bell, Coryell, Hamilton, Lampasas, Milam, Mills, San Saba

• Coastal Bend – Aransas, Bee, Brooks, Duval, Jim Wells, Kenedy, Kleberg, Live Oak, McMullen, Nueces, Refugio, San Patricio

• Concho Valley – Coke, Concho, Crockett, Iri on, Kimble, Mason, McCulloch, Menard, Reagan, Schleicher, Sterling, Sutton, Tom Green

• Dallas County – Dallas

• Deep East Texas – Angelina, Houston, Jasper, N acogdoches, Newton, Polk, Sabine, San Augustine, San Jacinto, Shelby, Trinity, Tyler

• East Texas – Anderson, Camp, Cherokee, Greg g, Harrison, Henderson, Marion, Panola, Rains, Rusk, Smith, Upshur, Van Zandt, Wood

• Golden Crescent – Calhoun, DeWitt, Goliad, Gonzales, Jackson, Lavaca, Victoria

• Gulf Coast – Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Matagorda, Montgomer y, Walker, Waller, Wharton

• Heart of Texas – Bosque, Falls, Freestone, Hill, Limestone, McLennan

• Lower Rio Grande Valley – Hidalgo, Starr, Willacy

• Middle Rio Grande – Dimmit, Edwards, Kinney, LaSalle, Maverick, Real, Uvalde, Val Verde, Zavala

• North Central – Collin, Denton, Ellis, Erat h, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Navarro, Palo Pinto, Parker, Rockwall, Somervell, Wise

• North East – Bowie, Cass, Delta, Franklin, Hopkins, Lamar, Morris, Red River, Titus

• North Texas – Archer, Baylor, Clay, Cottle, Foard, Hardeman, Jack, Montague, Wichita, Wilbarger, Young

• Panhandle – Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Donley, Gray, Hall, Hansford, Hartley, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb, Moore, Ochiltree, Oldham, Parm er, Potter, Randall, Roberts, Sherman, Swisher, Wheeler

• Permian Basin – Andrews, Borden, Crane, Dawson, Ector, Gaines, Glasscock, Howard, Loving, Martin, Midland, Pecos, Reeves, Terrell, Upton, Ward, Winkler

• Rural Capital – Bastrop, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwe ll, Fayette, Hays, Lee, Llano, WilliamsonTCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 9 • South East Texas – Hardin, Jefferson, Orange

• South Plains – Bailey, Cochran, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd, Garza, Hale, Hockley, King, Lamb, Lubbock, Lynn, Motley, Terry, Yoakum

• South Texas – Jim Hogg, Webb, Zapata

• Tarrant County – Tarrant

• Texoma – Cooke, Fannin, Grayson

• Upper Rio Grande – Brewster, Culberson, El Paso, Hudspeth, Jeff Davis, Presidio

• West Central – Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Eastland, Fisher, Haskell, Jones, Kent, Knox, Mitchell, Nolan, R unnels, Scurry, Shackelford, Stephens, Stonewall, Taylor, Throckmorton The comparison of the Texas Workforce Comm ission employment-based growth factors with the Economy.com output-based growth f actors for the 10-year period between 2006 and 2016 is presented in Table 3-3. The difference between the growth factors was calculated by subtracting the output-based growth factor from the employment-based gr owth factor. Thus, a positive difference represents a larger employ ment-based growth factor, while a negative difference represents a larger output-based growth factor. The maximum and minimum
differences are shown in Table 3-3.

From Table 3-3, it can be seen that there is a wide disparity be tween the employmentbased growth factors and the out put-based growth factors. Si nce there are both positive and negative differences for most 3-digit NAICS code s, it is not clear whet her the employment-based growth factors or output-based growth factors are more accurate. For the positive differences (i.e., larger employment-based gr owth factors than output-based growth factors), one plausible explanation is an expected incr ease in administration and other s upport staff that do not directly impact output production. For negative differences (i.e., larger out put-based growth factors than employment-based growth factor s), a possible explanation is e xpected increases in sector efficiency which boost output without requiri ng additional employment. Based upon the wide variability of differences shown in Table 3-3, and since U.S. EPA and the Emission Inventory Improvement Program have indicated that the us e of product output as a growth indicator is preferred over the use of employment, earni ngs, or value added st atistics (EIIP, 1999), the Economy.com output data were used to develop gr owth factors for 15 of the 20 most significant point source sectors (i.e., all sectors listed in Table 3-1, except for 2211, 3241, 4861, 4862, and 4869).TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 10

Table 3-3. Comparison of Economy.co m Output-Based and WDA EmploymentBased Growth Factors between 2006 and 2016
Maximum Minimum NAICS NAICS Description Difference WDA Difference WDA

211 Oil and Gas Extraction 0.5485 Deep East -0.1916 Capital 212 Mining (excl. Oil and Gas) 1.0982 Deep East -0.2003 West Central 213 Mining Support Activities 0.6178 Deep East -0.4663 Tarrant 221 Utilities 0.2103 Texoma -0.6437 North Central 236 Building Construction 0.2968 Cameron -0.3349 Heart of Texas 237 Heavy Construction 0.2819 South -0.5126 Cameron 311 Food Manufacturing 0.4490 Concho Valley -0.2812 Texoma 312 Beverage Manufacturing 0.7865 Rural Capital -0.5741 Capital 313 Textile Mills 1.1623 Gulf Coast 0.7281 Dallas 314 Textile Product Mills 1.3504 Rural Capital -0.9768 South 315 Apparel Manufacturing 1.0917 Brazos Valley 0.2634 Lower Rio Grande 316 Leather Product Manufacturing 0.9324 West Central 0.5593 North Central 321 Wood Product Manufacturing 0.5908 South East -3.0596 Cameron 322 Paper Manufacturing 0.3917 Panhandle -0.1142 Alamo 323 Printing and Related Activities 0.3741 South Plains -3.0058 Cameron 324 Petroleum and Coal Products 0.6629 East 0.2992 Capital 325 Chemical Manufacturing 0.2711 Concho Valley -0.6927 Rural Capital 326 Plastic and Rubber Products 0.4258 Brazos Valley -0.5951 Alamo 327 Nonmetallic Mineral Products 0.6700 Middle Rio Grande -0.5843 Concho Valley

331 Primary Metal Manufacturing 0.5549 Lower Rio Grande -0.3379 North Central 332 Fabricated Metal Products 0.2715 Golden Crescent -0.3516 South 333 Machinery Manufacturing 0.8758 Lower Rio Grande -0.6096 Rural Capital 334 Computer and Electronic Products 0.7610 Brazos Valley -0.2903 North Central

335 Electrical Manufacturing 0.0797 South East -1.2328 Tarrant 336 Transportation Equipment 0.7680 South East -0.6091 Concho Valley 337 Furniture Manufacturing 1.1420 Permian Basin -0.3561 Heart of Texas 339 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.5165 Concho Valley -0.4122 Rural Capital



## Economy.com output based growth factors we re not used for NAICS 2211 (Electric Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution) b ecause of the availability of Texas-specific projections in the AEO (EIA, 2010). Fuel-specific genera tion projections for the ERCOT electricity market module region (or power pool) were obtained fr om the Main Reference Case
Tables of the AEO (Table 73: Electric Power Projections for Electricity Mark et Module Regions – Electric Reliability Council of Texas) (EIA , 2010). The ERCOT region covers the vast majority of Texas; only small portions of the st ate fall in other regions (i.e., portions of the
Panhandle and northeast Texas in th e Southwest Power Pool [SPP], portions of east Texas in the Southeastern Electric Reliability Council [SERC] , and far west Texas in the Rocky Mountain Power Area [RA]). It was assumed that the ERCOT region was applicable for the entire state.
These AEO generation projections were previously used by ERG for development of 2018 projected inventories for the Western Regional Ai r Partnership and are generally assumed to beTCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 11 of high quality. It should be noted that although the Texas po pulation is expected to grow steadily, there appear to be some slight decreas es in the electricity generation projections. Definitive answers cannot be provided without an extensive analysis of the AEO modeling, but the decreases in the electricity generation projections may be due to conservation efforts and demand-side management.

Originally, ERG intended to use the Economy.com output data for NAICS 3241 (Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing) (i .e., including refineries). However, TCEQ review of the initial projections based on Economy.com output data indicated a decr ease, in spite of an increase in output data in a number of relate d sectors (e.g., organic chemicals, carbon black, plastics, petroleum bulk st ations, special warehousing and storage, etc.) (Muldoon, 2010). Thus, instead of Economy.com output data, ERG used AEO domestic refining capacity data (Table 102: Domestic Refinery Distillation Base Capacity and Expansion) for Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District III (i.e., Alabama, Ar kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, and Texas) to project NAICS 3241 (EIA, 2010).

ERG also originally intende d to use Economy.com output data for NAICS 4861 (Pipeline Transportation of Crude Oil), 4862 (Pipeline Tran sportation of Natural Gas), and 4869 (Other Pipeline Transportation). However, after co mpiling the Economy.com output data, it was unexpectedly determined that Economy.com output da ta were entirely unavailable for these three NAICS codes. Economy.com staff were contacted in an effort to identify the reason for the unavailability of output data fo r these three NAICS code. The Economy.com staff response was that for specialized industries (i .e., pipeline transportati on) that there is ty pically one of three underlying reasons for data unavailability: a small industry sample size, a poor industry response, or one dominant establishment. If one of these reasons occurs, then the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), whose data Economy.com uses, will not publish employment estimates in order to maintain data quality and to pr otect the privacy of su rvey respondents (McGee, 2010a). Another potential reason is that pipelines , unlike most other trad itional point sources, stretch across multiple counties. As a result, it is probably very difficult to allocate output, employment, and other economic data associated with pipelines to individual counties. Instead of Economy.com data, AEO crude oil and natural gas production data (Table 113: Lower 48
Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region; Tabl e 114: Lower 48 Natural Gas Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region) for the Gulf Coast and Southwest Oil andTCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 12 Gas Supply Model Regions were used to project NAICS codes 4861 and 4862, respectively (EIA, 2010). Since the specific definition of NAICS 4869 (Other Pipeline Transportation) is ambiguous, Economy.com data for NAICS 3251 (Basic Chemical Manufacturing) were used as a
surrogate.
3.2 Less Significant Point Source Sectors For the less significant point source sectors (i.e., the bottom 10 percent of the VOC and

NO x 

## point source inventories), the Economy.com output data were used as the starting point for the development of growth factors for all se ctor/county combinations. The sector-specific growth factor for a particular year was estimated by dividing the sector-specific output for that year by the sector specific output for the 2005 base year. A gr owth factor greater than 1.0000 indicates (positive) growth, while growth factor less than 1.0000 indicates a contracting sector. A growth factor of exactl y 1.0000 represents no growth.

3.3 All Point Source Sectors One particular area of concern associated w ith the use of Economy.com output data for both the more and less significant point sour ce sectors was that fo r certain NAICS/county combinations the derived growth factors may be ove rly large. In some cases, this may, in fact, represent an industry sector that is growing rapidly. However, in other instances, these growth factors may be the result of insignificant county- level outputs. County-level output estimates are based upon detailed county-level employment estim ates and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) state- and metropolitan area -level output data. For the larger countie s, actual output data exist; however, for the smaller counties, Economy.com gap-fills the output estimates by allocating the state-level output (minus actual output data fo r the large counties) based upon employment estimates. For some NAICS/county co mbinations, the output estimates are as small

as 1 x 10 -8 

## million dollars (i.e., 1 cent). These small output estimates are not realistic and are simply an artifact of Economy.com’s gap-filling process. After consulting with TCEQ staff, it was decided that for any NAICS/county combinations (both more and less significant sectors) with 2005 output values less than $1,000,000 that growth factors w ould be based on county-level population growth instead of output data from Ec onomy.com. The basis of this decision was that BEA does not report any data less than $1,000,000 (McGee, 2010b). This substitution of county-level population growth instead of Ec onomy.com output data was used for 48,939 point source NAICS/county combinations out of a total of 72,136.TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 13 4.0 DEVELOPMENT OF AREA SOURCE GROWTH FACTORS
The development of area source growth factor s was also conducted under Task 2 (Obtain, Analyze, and Compile Growth Factor Data) of the project scope. After analyzing all of the collected data, the specific data assignment s for each area source category were developed. These data assignments are presented in Table 4-1. Table 4-1 includes a comprehensive listing of all area source categories in cluded in TCEQ’s existing area source inventory. At the request of TCEQ, some additional area sour ce categories have been added, including: disaggregated oil and gas categories, gas cans, and various minor point source categories developed by ERG under previous projects (ERG, 2009a; ERG, 2009b).

The project work plan indicated that the EGAS internal data mappings would be used as the starting point for the data assignments of gr owth factors to specific area source categories (ERG, 2010). Some of the EGAS internal data mappings were followed exactly, but significant adjustments were made to other mappings. Thes e adjustments included adjustment from SIC codes to NAICS codes, expanded use of Econom y.com output data (adj usted with population growth data for NAICS/county combinati ons with less than $1,000,000 output in 2005), expanded use of AEO data, use of Texas-spec ific population projections , and use of flat/no growth factors. These adju stments are described below.

4.1 Adjustment from SIC Codes to NAICS Codes For many industrial categories, the EGAS mode l utilized SIC-specific output data from

REMI’s Policy Insight model. However, economic data ha ve transitioned from SIC-based reporting to NAICS-based reporting over the last couple of years. Therefore, the available Economy.com data were all in te rms of NAICS. In general, th e equivalence between SIC codes and NAICS codes was fairly st raightforward, but a few cases required some engineering judgment to assign an appropriate NAICS code.

4.2 Expanded Use of Ec onomy.com Output Data In some instances, the Economy.com NAICS-based output data were more detailed than
the Policy Insight SIC-based output data. Th is allowed output data to be used for additional source categories. Some examples included commercial cooking (SCC 2302xxxxxx), construction (SCC 2311xxxxxx), gra phic arts (SCC 2425000000), etc.TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 14 Final, August 16, 2010Table 4-1. Area Source CategoryProjection Data AssignmentsSCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2102004000Industrial Fuel Combustion - Distillate Oil (Boilers/ICEngines) AEO regional consumption data2102005000 Industrial Fuel Combustion - Residual Oil AEO regional consumption data2102006000Industrial Fuel Combustion - Natural Gas (Boilers/ICEngines)AEO regional consumption data2102006001 Industrial Fuel Combustion - Natural Gas (Boilers) AEO regional consumption data2102006002 Industrial Fuel Combustion - Natural Gas (IC Engines) AEO regional consumption data2102007000 Industrial Fuel Combustion - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) AEO regional consumption data2102011000 Industrial Fuel Combustion – Kerosene AEO regional consumption data2103004000 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion - Distillate Oil AEO regional consumption data2103005000 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion - Residual Oil AEO regional consumption data2103006000 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion - Natural Gas AEO regional consumption data2103007000Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion - LiquefiedPetroleum Gas (LPG) AEO regional consumption data2103011000 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion - Kerosene AEO regional consumption data2104004000 Residential Fuel Combustion - Distillate Oil AEO regional consumption data2104005000 Residential Fuel Combustion - Residual Oil AEO regional consumption data2104006000 Residential Fuel Combustion - Natural Gas AEO regional consumption data2104007000Residential Fuel Combustion - Liquefied Petroleum Gas(LPG)AEO regional consumption data2104008100 Residential Fuel Combustion - Wood - Fireplaces AEO regional consumption data2104008210Residential Fuel Combustion - Wood - Woodstove FireplaceInserts (Non-EPA Certified) AEO regional consumption data2104008230Residential Fuel Combustion - Wood - Woodstove FireplaceInserts (EPA Certified Catalytic) AEO regional consumption data2104008300Residential Fuel Combustion - Wood - Woodstoves(Freestanding)AEO regional consumption data2104008320Residential Fuel Combustion - Wood - Woodstoves(Freestanding - EPA Certified Non-Catalytic) AEO regional consumption data2104008330Residential Fuel Combustion - Wood - Woodstoves(Freestanding - EPA Certified Catalytic)AEO regional consumption data2104011000 Residential Fuel Combustion - Kerosene AEO regional consumption data2294000000 Paved Road Dust - All Roads Population2302002100 Commercial Cooking - Conveyorized CharbroilingEconomy.com output data (91);population (163)NAICS 7221, 7222, 7223 (Full-Service FoodPlaces, Limited Service Food Places, Special FoodServices)2302002200 Commercial Cooking - Under-Fired CharbroilingEconomy.com output data (91);population (163)NAICS 7221, 7222, 7223 (Full-Service FoodPlaces, Limited Service Food Places, Special FoodServices)Table 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 15 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2302003000 Commercial Cooking - Deep Fat FryingEconomy.com output data (91);population (163)NAICS 7221, 7222, 7223 (Full-Service FoodPlaces, Limited Service Food Places, Special FoodServices)2302003100 Commercial Cooking - Flat Griddle FryingEconomy.com output data (91);population (163)NAICS 7221, 7222, 7223 (Full-Service FoodPlaces, Limited Service Food Places, Special FoodServices)2302003200 Commercial Cooking - Clamshell Griddle FryingEconomy.com output data (91);population (163)NAICS 7221, 7222, 7223 (Full-Service FoodPlaces, Limited Service Food Places, Special FoodServices)2302010000Meat Products ManufacturingEconomy.com output data (84);population (170)NAICS 3116 (Animal Slaughtering andProcessing)2302040000 Grain Mill Products ManufacturingEconomy.com output data (39);population (215) NAICS 3112 (Grain and Oilseed Milling)2302050000 Food Manufacturing - Bakery ProductsEconomy.com output data (64);population (190)NAICS 3118 (Bakeries and TortillaManufacturing)2302070001 Food Manufacturing – BreweriesEconomy.com output data (64);population (190)NAICS 3121 (Beverage Manufacturing)2302070005 Food Manufacturing - WineriesEconomy.com output data (64);population (190) NAICS 3121 (Beverage Manufacturing)2304050000 Nonferrous Foundries (Castings)Economy.com output data (43);population (211) NAICS 3315 (Foundries)2305070000 Concrete, Gypsum, and Plaster Products ManufacturingEconomy.com output data (40);population (214)NAICS 3273, 3274 (Cement and Concrete ProductManufacturing, Lime and Gypsum ProductManufacturing)2306010000 Asphalt Paving/Roofing Materials ManufacturingEconomy.com output data (108);population (146)NAICS 3241 (Petroleum and Coal ProductsManufacturing)2307020000 Wood Products Manufacturing - Sawmills/Planning MillsEconomy.com output data (35);population (219)NAICS 3211 (Sawmills and Wood Preservation)2307060000Wood Products Manufacturing - Miscellaneous WoodProductsEconomy.com output data (79);population (175)NAICS 3219 (Other Wood ProductManufacturing)2309000000 Fabricated Metals Manufacturing - All Processes (TotalEconomy.com output data (83);population (171)NAICS 3329 (Other Fabricated Metal ProductManufacturing)2309100010 Fabricated Metals Manufacturing - ElectroplatingEconomy.com output data (43);population (211)NAICS 3328 (Coating, Engraving, Heat Treating,and Allied Activities)2309100080Fabricated Metals Manufacturing - Hot Dip Galvanizing(Zinc)Economy.com output data (43);population (211)NAICS 3328 (Coating, Engraving, Heat Treating,and Allied Activities)2310000000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- All Processes (Total: All Processes)AEO – natural gas production2310000220Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- All Processes (Drill Rigs) AEO – natural gas productionTable 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 16 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2310000330Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- All Processes (Artificial Lift) AEO – natural gas production2310000440Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- All Processes (Saltwater Disposal Engines)AEO – natural gas production2310001000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- All Processes (On-Shore:Total: All Processes)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310002000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil And Gas Production (Total: All Processes)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310002301Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil And Gas Production (Flares: Continuous PilotLight)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310002305Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil And Gas Production (Flares: Flaring)OperationsAEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310002401Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil And Gas Production (Pneumatic Pumps): GasAnd Oil WellsAEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310002411Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil And Gas Production (Pressure/LevelControllers)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310002421Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil And Gas Production (Cold Vents)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310010000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Crude Petroleum (Total: All Processes)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310010100Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Crude Petroleum (Oil Well Heaters)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310010200Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Crude Petroleum (Oil Well Tanks - Flashing &Standing/Working/Breathing)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310010300Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Crude Petroleum (Oil Well Pneumatic Devices)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310010700Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Crude Petroleum (Oil Well Fugitives)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310010800Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Crude Petroleum (Oil Well Truck Loading)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310011000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Production(Total: All Processes)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310011020Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Production (Storage Tanks: Crude Oil)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310011100Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Production (Heater Treater)AEO – onshore crude oilproductionTable 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 17 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2310011201Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Production (Tank Truck/Railcar Loading:Crude Oil)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310011450Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Production (Wellhead)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310011500Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: All Processes)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310011501Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: Connectors)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310011502Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: Flanges)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310011503Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: Open Ended Lines)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310011504Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: Pumps)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310011505Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: Valves)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310011506Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: Other)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310012000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Production (Total: All Processes)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310012020Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Production (Storage Tanks: Crude Oil)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310012201Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Production (Barge Loading: Crude Oil)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310012511Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Connectors: OilStreams)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310012512Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Flanges: Oil)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310012515Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Valves: Oil)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310012516Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Other: Oil)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310012521Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Connectors: Oil/WaterStreams)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310012522Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Flanges: Oil/Water)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310012525Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Valves: Oil/Water)AEO – offshore crude oilproductionTable 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 18 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2310012526Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Other: Oil/Water)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310020000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Natural Gas (Total: All Processes)AEO – natural gas production2310020600Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Natural Gas (Compressor Engines) AEO – natural gas production2310020700Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Natural Gas (Gas Well Fugitives)AEO – natural gas production2310020800Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Natural Gas (Gas Well Truck Loading) AEO – natural gas production2310021000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Total: All Processes) AEO – natural gas production2310021010Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Storage Tanks: Condensate)AEO – natural gas production2310021030Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Tank Truck/Railcar Loading:Condensate) AEO – natural gas production2310021100Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Gas Well Heaters)AEO – natural gas production2310021101Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 2Cycle LeanBurn Compressor Engines < 50 Hp) AEO – natural gas production2310021102Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 2Cycle LeanBurn Compressor Engines 50 To 499 Hp)AEO – natural gas production2310021103Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 2Cycle LeanBurn Compressor Engines 500+ Hp)AEO – natural gas production2310021109Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Total: All Natural Gas Fired2Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines)AEO – natural gas production2310021201Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle LeanBurn Compressor Engines <50 Hp) AEO – natural gas production2310021202Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle LeanBurn Compressor Engines 50 To 499 Hp)AEO – natural gas production2310021203Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle LeanBurn Compressor Engines 500+ Hp)AEO – natural gas productionTable 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 19 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2310021209Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Total: All Natural Gas Fired4Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines)AEO – natural gas production2310021300Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Gas Well Pneumatic Devices) AEO – natural gas production2310021301Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle RichBurn Compressor Engines <50 Hp)AEO – natural gas production2310021302Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle RichBurn Compressor Engines 50 To 499 Hp)AEO – natural gas production2310021303Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle RichBurn Compressor Engines 500+ Hp) AEO – natural gas production2310021309Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Total: All Natural Gas Fired4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines)AEO – natural gas production2310021400Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Gas Well Dehydrators) AEO – natural gas production2310021401Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Nat Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich BurnCompressor Engines <50 Hp w/ NSCR)AEO – natural gas production2310021402Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Nat Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich BurnCompressor Engines 50 To 499 Hp w/ NSCR)AEO – natural gas production2310021403Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Nat Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich BurnCompressor Engines 500+ Hp w/ NSCR) AEO – natural gas production2310021409Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Total: All Nat Gas Fired 4CycleRich Burn Compressor Engines w/ NSCR) AEO – natural gas production2310021450Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Wellhead)AEO – natural gas production2310021500Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Gas Well Completion - Flaringand Venting) AEO – natural gas production2310021501Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: Connectors)AEO – natural gas production2310021502Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: Flanges) AEO – natural gas productionTable 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 20 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2310021503Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: Open Ended Lines) AEO – natural gas production2310021504Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: Pumps)AEO – natural gas production2310021505Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: Valves) AEO – natural gas production2310021506Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: Other)AEO – natural gas production2310021509Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: All Processes) AEO – natural gas production2310021600Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Production (Gas Well Venting) AEO – natural gas production2310022000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Natural Gas : Off-Shore:Total: All Processes)AEO – natural gas production2310022010Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Production (Storage Tanks: Condensate) AEO – natural gas production2310022051Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Production (Turbines: Natural Gas) AEO – natural gas production2310022090Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Production (Boilers/Heaters: Natural Gas)AEO – natural gas production2310022105Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Production (Diesel Engines) AEO – natural gas production2310022300Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Production (Compressor Engines: 4CycleRich)AEO – natural gas production2310022420Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Production (Dehydrator) AEO – natural gas production2310022501Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Production(Fugitives, Connectors: GasStreams)AEO – natural gas production2310022502Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives, Flanges: Gas Streams) AEO – natural gas production2310022505Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives, Valves: Gas)AEO – natural gas production2310022506Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives, Other: Gas) AEO – natural gas production2310023000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Natural Gas (Cbm Gas Well - Dewatering Pump Engines) AEO – natural gas production2310030000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Natural Gas Liquids (Total: All Processes)AEO – natural gas productionTable 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 21 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2310030210Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Natural Gas Liquids (Gas Well Tanks - Flashing &Standing/Working/Breathing, Uncontrolled)AEO – natural gas production2310030220Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Natural Gas Liquids (Gas Well Tanks - Flashing &Standing/Working/Breathing, Controlled) AEO – natural gas production2310031000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Natural Gas Liquids (On-Shore: Total: All Processes)AEO – natural gas production2310032000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Natural Gas Liquids (Off-Shore: Total: All Processes) AEO – natural gas production2310111000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Exploration (All Processes)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310111100Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Exploration (Mud Degassing)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310111401Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Pneumatic Pumps)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310111700Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Completion: AllProcesses)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310111701Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Completion: Flaring)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310111702Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Completion: Venting)AEO – onshore crude oilproduction2310112000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Exploration (All Processes)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310112100Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Exploration (Mud Degassing Activities)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310112401Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Pneumatic Pumps)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310112700Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Completion: AllProcesses)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310112701Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Completion: Flaring)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310112702Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Completion: Venting)AEO – offshore crude oilproduction2310121000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Exploration (All Processes)AEO – natural gas production2310121100Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Exploration (Mud Degassing) AEO – natural gas productionTable 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 22 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2310121401Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Pneumatic Pumps) AEO – natural gas production2310121700Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Completion: AllProcesses)AEO – natural gas production2310121701Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Completion: Flaring) AEO – natural gas production2310121702Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- On-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Completion: Venting) AEO – natural gas production2310122000Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Exploration (All Processes) AEO – natural gas production2310122100Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Exploration (Mud Degassing)AEO – natural gas production2310122401Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Pneumatic Pumps) AEO – natural gas production2310122700Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Exploration(Gas Well Completion: AllProcesses)AEO – natural gas production2310122701Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Completion: Flaring) AEO – natural gas production2310122702Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production- Off-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Completion: Venting) AEO – natural gas production2311010000 General Building ConstructionEconomy.com output data (126);population (128)NAICS 2361, 2362 (Residential Construction;Nonresidential Construction)2311020000 Heavy ConstructionEconomy.com output data (86);population (168)NAICS 2379 (Other Heavy and Civil EngineeringConstruction)2311030000 Road ConstructionEconomy.com output data (138);population (116)NAICS 2373 (Highway, Street, and BridgeConstruction)2325000000 Mining & Quarrying - All ProcessesEconomy.com output data (1);population (253)NAICS 2121, 2122, 2123 (Coal Mining; MetalOre Mining; Nonmetallic Mining and Quarrying)2325020000 Mining & Quarrying - Crushed and Broken StoneEconomy.com output data (69);population (185)NAICS 3279 (Other Nonmetallic Mineral ProductManufacturing)2325050000 Mining & Quarrying - Chemical and Fertilizer MaterialsEconomy.com output data (86);population (168)NAICS 2123 (Nonmetallic Mineral Mining andQuarrying)2399000000 Industrial Processes - Not Elsewhere ClassifiedEconomy.com output data (85);population (169)NAICS 3399 (Other MiscellaneousManufacturing)2401001000 Architectural Coatings Population2401005000 Auto RefinishingEconomy.com output data (124);population (130)NAICS 8111 (Automotive Repair andMaintenance)2401008000 Traffic MarkingsEconomy.com output data (138);population (116)NAICS 2373 (Highway, Street, and BridgeConstruction)Table 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 23 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2401015000 IndustrialSurface Coating - Factory Finished WoodEconomy.com output data (27);population (227)NAICS 3211, 3212, 3219 (Sawmills and WoodPreservation; Veneer, Plywood, and EngineeredWood Product Manuf.; Other Wood ProductManf.)2401020000 IndustrialSurface Coating - Wood FurnitureEconomy.com output data (22);population (232)NAICS 3371, 3372, 3379 (Veneer, Plywood, andEngineered Wood Product Manf.; Office Furniture[including Fixtures] Manf.; Other FurnitureRelated Product Manf.)2401025000 IndustrialSurface Coating - Metal FurnitureEconomy.com output data (27);population (227)NAICS 3211, 3212, 3219 (Veneer, Plywood, andEngineered Wood Product Manf.; Office Furniture[including Fixtures] Manf.; Other FurnitureRelated Product Manf.)2401030000 Industrial Surface Coating – PaperEconomy.com output data (53);population (201)NAICS 3221, 3222 (Pulp, Paper, and PaperboardMills; Converted Paper Product Manf.)2401040000 Industrial Surface Coating - Metal CansEconomy.com output data (83);population (171)NAICS 3329 (Other Fabricated Metal ProductManufacturing)2401045000 Industrial Surface Coating - Metal CoilsEconomy.com output data (83);population (171)NAICS 3329 (Other Fabricated Metal ProductManufacturing)2401050000 IndustrialSurface Coating - Misc. Finished MetalsEconomy.com output data (3);population (251)NAICS 3312, 332x (Steel Product Manufacturingfrom Purchased Steel; Fabricated Metal ProductManf.)2401055000 IndustrialSurface Coating - Machinery & EquipmentEconomy.com output data (17);population (237) NAICS 333x (Machinery Manufacturing)2401060000 IndustrialSurface Coating - Large AppliancesEconomy.com output data (29);population (225)NAICS 3352 (Household ApplianceManufacturing)2401065000 Industrial Surface Coating - Electronic & Other ElectricalEconomy.com output data (7);population (247)NAICS 334x, 335x (Computer and ElectricProduct Manf.; ElectricalEquipment, Appliance,and Component Manf.)2401070000 IndustrialSurface Coating - Motor VehiclesEconomy.com output data (27);population (227)NAICS 3361, 3362, 3363 (Motor Vehicle Manf.;Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manf.; MotorVehicle Parts Manf.)2401075000 Industrial Surface Coating – AircraftEconomy.com output data (140);population (114)NAICS 3364 (Aerospace Product and PartsManufacturing)2401080000 Industrial Surface Coating – MarineEconomy.com output data (20);population (234) NAICS 3366 (Ship and Boat Building)2401085000 Industrial Surface Coating – RailroadEconomy.com output data (34);population (220)NAICS 3365 (Railroad Rolling StockManufacturing)2401090000 IndustrialSurface Coating - Misc. ManufacturingEconomy.com output data (65);population (189)NAICS 3339, 3399 (Other General PurposeMachinery Manf; Miscellaneous Manf.)2401100000 IndustrialSurface Coating - Industrial MaintenanceEconomy.com output data (0);population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All Manufacturing)Table 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 24 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2401200000 IndustrialSurface Coating - Special PurposeEconomy.com output data (0);population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All Manufacturing)2401990000 All Surface Coating CategoriesEconomy.com output data (0);population (254)NAICS 3xxx (All Manufacturing)2415000000 Degreasing (All Processes) - All IndustriesEconomy.com output data (0);population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All Manufacturing)2415100000 Degreasing (Open Top) - All IndustriesEconomy.com output data (0);population (254)NAICS 3xxx (All Manufacturing)2415105000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Furniture & FixturesEconomy.com output data (22);population (232)NAICS 3371, 3372, 3379 (Veneer, Plywood, andEngineered Wood Product Manf.; Office Furniture[including Fixtures] Manf.; Other FurnitureRelated Product Manf.)2415110000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Primary Metal Ind.Economy.com output data (18);population (236) NAICS 331x (Primary Metal Manufacturing)2415120000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Fabricated MetalEconomy.com output data (7);population (247)NAICS 332x (Fabricated Metal ProductManufacturing)2415125000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Industrial Machinery & EquipmentEconomy.com output data (17);population (237)NAICS 333x (Machinery Manufacturing)2415130000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Electronic & Other ElectricEconomy.com output data (7);population (247)NAICS 334x, 335x (Computer and ElectricProduct Manf.; ElectricalEquipment, Appliance,and Component Manf.)2415135000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Transportation EquipmentEconomy.com output data (5);population (249)NAICS 336x (Transportation EquipmentManufacturing)2415140000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Instruments & Related ProductsEconomy.com output data (42);population (212)NAICS 3333, 3345, 3391 (Commercial andService Industry Machinery Manf.; Navigational,Measuring, Electromedical, and ControlInstruments Manf.; Medical Equipment andSupplies Manf.)2415145000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Misc. ManufacturingEconomy.com output data (65);population (189)NAICS 3339, 3399 (Other General PurposeMachinery Manf; Miscellaneous Manf.)2415300000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - All IndustriesEconomy.com output data (0);population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All Manufacturing)2415305000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Furniture & FixturesEconomy.com output data (22);population (232)NAICS 3371, 3372, 3379 (Veneer, Plywood, andEngineered Wood Product Manf.; Office Furniture[including Fixtures] Manf.; Other FurnitureRelated Product Manf.)2415310000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Primary Metal Ind.Economy.com output data (18);population (236) NAICS 331x (Primary Metal Manufacturing)2415320000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Fabricated MetalEconomy.com output data (7);population (247)NAICS 332x (Fabricated Metal ProductManufacturing)Table 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 25 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2415325000Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Industrial Machinery &EquipmentEconomy.com output data (17);population (237) NAICS 333x (Machinery Manufacturing)2415330000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Electronic & Other ElectricEconomy.com output data (7);population (247)NAICS 334x, 335x (Computer and ElectricProduct Manf.; ElectricalEquipment, Appliance,and Component Manf.)2415335000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Transportation EquipmentEconomy.com output data (5);population (249)NAICS 336x (Transportation EquipmentManufacturing)2415340000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Instruments & Related ProductsEconomy.com output data (42);population (212)NAICS 3333, 3345, 3391 (Commercial andService Industry Machinery Manf.; Navigational,Measuring, Electromedical, and ControlInstruments Manf.; Medical Equipment andSupplies Manf.)2415345000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Misc. ManufacturingEconomy.com output data (65);population (189)NAICS 3339, 3399 (Other General PurposeMachinery Manf; Miscellaneous Manf.)2415355000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Automotive DealersEconomy.com output data (77);population (177)NAICS 4411, 4412 (Automobile Dealers; OtherMotor Vehicle Dealers)2415360000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Auto Repair ServicesEconomy.com output data (124);population (130)NAICS 8111 (Automotive Repair andMaintenance)2415365000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Misc. Repair ServicesEconomy.com output data (28);population (226)NAICS 8112, 8113, 8114 (Electronic andPrecision Equipment Repair and Maintenance;Commercial and Industrial Machinery andEquipment [except Automotive and Electronic]Repair and Maintenance; Personal and HouseholdGoods Repair and Maintenance)2420000000 Dry Cleaning - All Processes (All Solvent Types)Economy.com output data (60);population (194) NAICS 8123 (Drycleaning and Laundry Services)2420010055 Dry Cleaning - Commercial/Industrial (Perchloroethylene)Economy.com output data (60);population (194) NAICS 8123 (Drycleaning and Laundry Services)2420010370 Dry Cleaning - Commercial/Industrial (Special Naphthas)Economy.com output data (60);population (194) NAICS 8123 (Drycleaning and Laundry Services)2420020055 Dry Cleaning - Coin Operated (Perchloroethylene)Economy.com output data (60);population (194) NAICS 8123 (Drycleaning and Laundry Services)2425000000 Graphic ArtsEconomy.com output data (83);population (171)NAICS 3231 (Printing and Related SupportActivities)2430000000 Rubber/PlasticsEconomy.com output data (44);population (210)NAICS 3261, 3262 (Plastics Product Manf.;Rubber Product Manf.)2440020000 Miscellaneous Industrial Adhesive ApplicationEconomy.com output data (0);population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All Manufacturing)2460100000 Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (Personal Care Products) Population2460200000 Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (Household Products) PopulationTable 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 26 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2460400000Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (AutomotiveAftermarket Products) Population2460500000Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (Coatings And RelatedProducts)Population2460520000Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (Coatings RelatedProducts) Population2460600000 Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (Adhesives and Sealants) Population2460800000Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (FIFRA RelatedProducts)Population2460900000 Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (Miscellaneous Products) Population2461021000 Asphalt Application - Cutback AsphaltEconomy.com output data (138);population (116)NAICS 2373 (Highway, Street, and BridgeConstruction)2461022000 Asphalt Application - Emulsified AsphaltEconomy.com output data (138);population (116)NAICS 2373 (Highway, Street, and BridgeConstruction)2461023000 Asphalt Application - Asphalt RoofingEconomy.com output data (142);population (112)NAICS 2381 (Foundation, Structure, and BuildingExterior Contractors)2461800000 Commercial Solvent Use - Pesticides (All) Population2461850000 Commercial Solvent Use - Pesticides (Herbicides) Population2465000000 Consumer Solvent Use (Total) Population2465100000 Consumer Solvent Use (Personal Care Products) Population2501000090Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) -Distillate Oil AEO regional data2501000120Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) -Gasoline AEO regional data2501000150Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) – JetNaphthaAEO regional data2501000180Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) -Kerosene AEO regional data2501010030Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) – CrudeOilAEO regional data2501010060Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) -Residual Oil AEO regional data2501010120Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) -Gasoline AEO regional data2501010180Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) -KeroseneAEO regional data2501011011 Portable Fuel Containers – Permeation – Residential Population2501011012Portable Fuel Containers – Evaporation (Diurnal) –Residential Population2501011013 Portable Fuel Containers – Spillage – Transport – Residential PopulationTable 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 27 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2501011014Portable Fuel Containers –Refilling – Vapor Displacement –Residential Population2501011015 Portable Fuel Containers – Refilling – Spillage – Residential Population2501012011 Portable Fuel Containers – Permeation – Commercial Population2501012012Portable Fuel Containers – Evaporation (Diurnal) –CommercialPopulation2501012013Portable Fuel Containers – Spillage – Transport –Commercial Population2501012014Portable Fuel Containers –Refilling – Vapor Displacement –CommercialPopulation2501012015 Portable Fuel Containers – Refilling – Spillage – Commercial Population2501060051 Gasoline Service Stations - Stage 1 (Submerged Filling) AEO regional data2501060053Gasoline Service Stations -Stage 1 (Balanced SubmergedFilling) AEO regional data2501060100 Gasoline Service Stations - Stage 2 (Total) AEO regional data2501060101Gasoline Service Stations - Stage 2 (DisplacementLoss/Uncontrolled) AEO regional data2501060102Gasoline Service Stations - Stage 2 (DisplacementLoss/Controlled)AEO regional data2501060103 Gasoline Service Stations - Stage 2 (Spillage) AEO regional data2501060201Gasoline Service Stations - Underground Tank Breathing andEmptying AEO regional data2501080050Petroleum Product Storage andTransport - Aviation Gasoline- Stage 1 AEO regional data2501080100Petroleum Product Storage andTransport - Aviation Gasoline- Stage 2AEO regional data2501995120Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Working Loss) -Gasoline AEO regional data2505020000Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Marine VesselTransport) - All ProductsAEO regional data2505030120Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Truck Transport) -Gasoline AEO regional data2601010000 On-Site Incineration – IndustrialEconomy.com output data (0);population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All Manufacturing)2601020000 On-Site Incineration - Commercial/Institutional Population2610000100 Open Burning (Yard Waste) - Leaf Population2610000400 Open Burning (Yard Waste) – Brush Population2610000500 Open Burning (Land Clearing Debris Except Logging Debris)Economy.com output data (136);population (118)NAICS 2361 (Residential Building Construction)2610030000 Open Burning (Household Waste) Population2620000000 Landfills – All PopulationTable 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 28 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2620030000 Landfills – Municipal Population2630000000 Wastewater Treatment – All Population2630020000 Wastewater Treatment - Public Owned Population2660000000 Leaking Underground Storage TanksEconomy.com output data (67);population (187)NAICS 5629 (Remediation and Other WasteManagement Services)2801000000 Agriculture Production (Total) Constant2801000003 Agriculture Tilling Constant2801500000 Agriculture - Field Burning (All Crops) Constant2801700001 Fertilizer Application - Anhydrous Ammonia Constant2801700002 Fertilizer Application - Aqua Ammonia Constant2801700003 Fertilizer Application - Nitrogen Solutions Constant2801700004 Fertilizer Application – Urea Constant2801700005 Fertilizer Application - Ammonium Nitrate Constant2801700006 Fertilizer Application - Ammonium Sulfate Constant2801700007 Fertilizer Application - Ammonium Thiosulfate Constant2801700008 Fertilizer Application - Other Straight Nitrogen Constant2801700009 Fertilizer Application - Ammonium Phosphates Constant2801700010 Fertilizer Application - N-P-K Constant2801700011 Fertilizer Application - Calcium Ammonium Nitrate Constant2801700012 Fertilizer Application - Potassium Nitrate Constant2801700013 Fertilizer Application - Diammonium Phosphate Constant2801700014 Fertilizer Application - Monoammonium Phosphate Constant2801700015 Fertilizer Application - Liquid Ammonium Polyphosphate Constant2801700099 Fertilizer Application - Miscellaneous Fertilizers Constant2805001000 Beef Cattle Feedlots – Total Constant2805001100 Beef Cattle Feedlots – Confinement Constant2805001200 Beef Cattle Feedlots - Manure Handling/Storage Constant2805001300 Beef Cattle Feedlots - Land Application of Manure Constant2805002000 Beef Cattle Production – Composite Constant2805003100 Beef Cattle Pasture/Range – Confinement Constant2805007100Poultry Production - Layers with Dry Manure ManagementConfinement Constant2805007300 Poultry Production - Land Application of Manure Constant2805008100 Poultry Production - Layers with Wet Manure Confinement Constant2805008200 Poultry Production - Wet Manure Handling and Storage Constant2805008300 Poultry Production - Land Application of Wet Manure Constant2805009100 Poultry – Confinement Constant2805009200 Poultry - Manure Handling/Storage Constant2805009300 Poultry - Land Application of Manure Constant2805010100 Turkey Production – Confinement ConstantTable 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 29 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2805010200 Turkey Production - Manure Handling/Storage Constant2805010300 Turkey Production - Land Application of Manure Constant2805018000 Dairy Cattle - Composite:Nec Constant2805019100 Dairy Cattle - Flush Dairy (Confinement) Constant2805019200 Dairy Cattle - Flush Dairy (Manure Handling/Storage) Constant2805019300 Dairy Cattle - Flush Dairy (Land Application of Manure) Constant2805021100 Dairy Cattle - Scrape Dairy (Confinement) Constant2805021200 Dairy Cattle - Scrape Dairy (Manure Handling/Storage) Constant2805021300 Dairy Cattle - Scrape Dairy (Land Application of Manure) Constant2805022100 Dairy Cattle - Deep Pit Dairy (Confinement) Constant2805022200 Dairy Cattle - Deep Pit Dairy (Manure Handling/Storage) Constant2805022300 Dairy Cattle - Deep Pit Dairy (Land Application of Manure) Constant2805023100 Dairy Cattle - Drylot/Pasture Dairy (Confinement) Constant2805023200Dairy Cattle - Drylot/Pasture Dairy (ManureHandling/Storage)Constant2805023300Dairy Cattle - Drylot/Pasture Dairy (Land Application ofManure) Constant2805025000 Hogs & Pigs – Composite Constant2805030000 Poultry & Chickens – Composite Constant2805030007 Poultry & Chickens – Ducks Constant2805030008 Poultry & Chickens – Geese Constant2805035000 Horses & Ponies – Composite Constant2805039100 Swine Production - Lagoons (Confinement) Constant2805039200 Swine Production - Lagoons (Manure Handling & Storage) Constant2805039300 Swine Production - Lagoons (Land Application of Manure) Constant2805040000 Sheep & Lambs – Composite Constant2805045000 Goats - Waste Emissions Constant2805047100Swine Production - Deep-Pit House (Land Application ofManure - Confinement)Constant2805047300Swine Production - Deep-Pit House (Land Application ofManure) Constant2805053100Swine Production - Out Door Operations (Land Applicationof Manure) Constant2806010000 Domestic Animals - Cats Population2806015000 Domestic Animals - Dogs Population2807025000 Wild Animals - Elk Constant2807030000 Wild Animals - Deer Constant2810001000 Other Combustion - Forest Wildfires Constant2810005000Other Combustion - Managed Burning Slash (LoggingDebris)ConstantTable 4-1. Continued

TCEQ, Projection Factors 

## 30 Final, August 16, 2010SCCSCC DescriptionProjection DataaProjection Data Description2810015000Other Combustion - Prescribed Burning For ForestManagement Constant2810020000 Other Combustion - Prescribed Burning Of Rangeland Constant2810030000 Other Combustion - Structure Fires Population2810040000Other Combustion - Aircraft/Rocket Engine Firing AndTestingConstant2810050000 Other Combustion - Motor Vehicle Fires Population2830000000 All Catastrophic/Accidental Releases ConstantaWhen projection data are indicated as both Economy.com output data and population data, the parenthetical number indicates thenumber of counties theparticular projection data were applied to.TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 31 Economy.com output data were obtained for all ar ea source categories indicated in Table 4-1. These include individual 4-digit NAICS (e.g., 3121, etc.) and multiple aggregated NAICS (e.g., 3xxx, etc.). For the multiple aggregated NAICS, output data for all the indi vidual NAICS within the group were aggregated together fo r each county, by year, before ca lculating the growth factors.

As discussed in Section 3.3 for point sour ces, any NAICS/county combinations with 2005 output values less than $1,000,000 used county-leve l population growth instead of Economy.com output data. The basis for this d ecision was that one particular area of concern associated with the use of Economy.com output data was that fo r certain NAICS/county combinations the derived growth factors may be overly large. In some cases , this may, in fact, represent an industry sector that is growing rapidly. However, in other instances, th ese growth factors may be the result of insignificant county-level outputs. County-level output estimates are based upon detailed countylevel employment estimates and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) state- and metropolitan area-level output data. For the la rger counties, actual output data exist; however, for the smaller counties, Economy.com ga p-fills the output estimates by alloca ting the state-level output (minus actual output data for the large counties) ba sed upon employment estimates. For some NAICS/county combinations, the output estimates are as small as 1 x 10 -8 

## million dollars (i.e., 1 cent). These small output estimates are not realis tic and are simply an artifact of Economy.com’s gap-filling process. After cons ulting with TCEQ staff, it was decided that for any NAICS/county combinations with 2005 output values less than $1,000,000 that growth factors would be based on county-level population growth instead of output data from Economy.com. The substitution of Economy.com output data with population is show n in Table 4-1 by indicating the number of counties for which Economy.com output data were maintained and the number of counties for which population data were substituted.

4.3 Expanded Use of Annual Energy Outlook Data

The EGAS model utilized AEO consumption data for the industrial, commercial/institutional, and residential fuel combustion area source categories (i.e., SCC 2102xxxxxx, 2103xxxxxx, and 2104xxxxxx). These assignments we re maintained in Table 4-1. As part of this project, use of the AEO data were expanded to additiona l area source categories. In particular, total fuel-specific (e.g., gasoline, distil late, residual, kerosene) consumption data were applied to the petroleum storage and tran sport categories (i.e., SCC 2501xxxxxx and 2505xxxxxx).TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 32 In addition, AEO oil and gas production data were applied to oil and gas production categories (i.e., SCC 2310xxxxxx). The consumption data were not available at the state-level; instead, consumption data for the West S outh Central census division (i.e ., Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas). Given the relative size of Texas consumption activity compared to the other three states the application of the We st South Central census divisi on to Texas is a reasonable assumption. Likewise, the AEO oil and gas production data were not available at the state-level either. Instead, production data were reported at the oil and gas supply model regions level. The two relevant oil and gas supply model regions that included Texas were the Gulf Coast and Southwest regions.

4.4 Use of Texas-Specific Population Projections The most recent Texas-specific population projec tions were obtained from the Texas State Demographer at the Texas State Da ta Center (TSDC, 2008). Compar ed to other types of activity data used for area source projec tions, population projecti ons are considered to typically be more accurate. This accuracy is due to birth and death rates being fairly well understood and quantified. In addition, birth and death rates us ually have considerable inertia and do not change significantly from year to year. The uncertainty of population projections is primarily due to immigration and sudden population influxes (e.g., the evacuation of New Orleans in th e wake of Hurricane Katrina, etc.). As shown in Figure 4-1, the county-le vel population projection fa ctors from 2005 to 2035 ranged from a minimum of 0.7812 for Llano Coun ty to 1.7110 for Webb County. The population projection factor for Loving County was even lower (i.e., 0.7463), but with a starting 2005 population of 67, it was considered to be an out lier. A total of 43 counties had decreasing population between 2005 and 2035; however, most of these counties were comparatively small with the largest county having a 2005 popul ation of 42,725 (i.e., Kerr County).

The statewide population growth projection factor from 2005 to 2035 was 1.1809, while the growth projection factor for the 10 most populous counties (i.e., Bexar, Co llin, Dallas, Denton, El Paso, Fort Bend, Harris, Hidalgo, Tarrant, and Travis counties) was slightly higher at 1.2025. These 10 counties comprised over 57 percent of the state popul ation in 2005. The individual county-level population projections for these 10 most populous count ies are shown in Figure 4-2. As shown in Figure 4-2, the population projections for 8 of these 10 counties (i.e., Bexar, Collin, Dallas, Denton, Fort Bend, Harris, Tarrant, and Travis counties) track fairly closely with state andTCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 33 aggregated 10 county projections with 2035 pr ojection factors ranging from 1.1392 to 1.1922. The two counties that significantly vary from the stat e and aggregated 10 county projections are Hidalgo and El Paso counties with 2035 projecti on factors of 1.5579 and 1.3474, respectively.

4.5 Use of Flat/No Growth Factors For a few source categories, th e EGAS model assigned flat or no growth factors (i.e., 1.0000). These source categories included a number of categories that either were not expected to vary significantly from year to year or appropriate activity data could not be reasonably assigned. Some examples included forest w ildfires, catastrophic/ accidental releases, and ammonia emissions from wild animals. For this effort, the flat factor was also assigned to all of the agricultural source categories (SCC 2801xxxxxx) a nd livestock ammonia cat egories (SCC 2805xxxxxx). The agricultural source categories were previously assi gned value added data from farms, but since total agricultural acreage does not signifi cantly change over time it was deci ded that a flat factor would be more appropriate. Various types of livestock va ry from year to year, but these variations are often cyclical in nature and are in response to market forces. As a result, a flat fa ctor was assigned to the livestock ammonia categories.
Figure 4-1. Range of Populat ion Growth Factors for Texas

0.6000 0.8000 1.0000 1.2000 1.4000 1.6000 1.8000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
YearGrowth Factor

Maxiumum Growth (Webb) Minimum Growth (Llano) Top 10 TexasTCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 34 Figure 4-2. Population Gr owth Factors for 10 Most Populous Counties in Texas

Population Growth Factors for 10 Largest Texas Counties

1.0000 1.0500 1.1000 1.1500 1.2000 1.2500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
YearGrowth Factor

Texas Top 10 Bexar Dallas Denton El Paso Fort Bend Harris Hidalgo Tarrant Travis



## 5.0 DATA ANALYSIS
After developing preliminary growth factors fo r Texas point and area sources as described in Sections 3.0 and 4.0, ERG conducted a data anal ysis by applying the comp iled growth factors to the point source and area source 200 5 base year emissions inventor ies (provided by TCEQ and used “as is” with no changes) and developing futu re year emissions inventories for 2008, 2017, 2020, 2026, and 2035. This analysis was conducted under Ta sk 3 (Data Analysis) of the project scope. ERG analyzed the future emissions inventories by comparing and contrasting differences between the 2005 base year inventory and th e five future year inventories. The data analysis included comparisons at the following levels of disaggr egation: county, attainment status area (i.e., including nonattainment, near nona ttainment, Early Action Compact [EAC], and attainment), and
state. The attainment status areas are as follows:

• Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Ozone Nonattainment Area;

• Dallas-Fort Worth Ozone Nonattainment Area;TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 35 • Beaumont/Port Arthur Ozone Nonattainment Area;

• El Paso Nonattainment Area;

• Austin Ozone EAC Area;

• Northeast Texas EAC Area;

• San Antonio EAC Area;

• Corpus Christi Near Nonattainment Area;

• Victoria Near Nonattainment Area; and

• All attainment counties.
Based on conversation with TCEQ project staff, it was decided to limit further analysis to

NO x 

## , VOC, and carbon monoxide (CO) only. The analys is identified SCCs and Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes that had the greatest and least variation of emissions estimates with the degree of variation indicated in units of tons per day and pe rcent change. ERG compiled the differences between the 2005 base year emissions inventory and the five future year inventories in a spreadsheet and submitted these to TCEQ for their review. Figures 5-1 and 5-2 show the top five state-level VOC source categories (based on 2005 emissions) for point and area sources along with their future year emissions. Additional analys is was conducted for oil and gas source category emissions within the point and ar ea source types. Figures 5-3 and 5-4 present the state-level base year and future year VOC emissions for point source and area source oil and gas categories, respectively. Figures 5-5 through 5-12 pres ent a similar set of charts for CO and NO x 

## emissions.

Based upon TCEQ staff’s review of the analysis results, several revisions were made to the projection factors whic h are listed below:

• For NAICS 3241 (Petroleum and Coal Pr oducts Manufacturing) (i.e., including refineries) point sources, replacemen t of Economy.com output data with AEO domestic refining capacity data (described in detail in Section 3.1).

• For NAICS 4861 (Pipeline Transportation of Crude Oil), 4862 (Pipeline Transportation of Natural Gas), and 4869 (Other Pipeline Transportation) poin t sources, use of alternative data when Economy.com output data were unavailable (i.e., AEO crude oil and natural gas production for NAICS 4861 and 4862 and use of Economy.com output data for NAICS 3251 [Basic Chemical Manufact uring] as a surroga te for NAICS 4869) (described in detail in Section 3.1).

• For both point and area sources, replacemen t of Economy.com output data with countylevel population data for those NAICS sect or/county combinati ons with a 2005 output value less than $1,000,000 (described in detail in Section 3.3).
Since these changes were made after TCEQ sta ff’s review of the analysis results, these changes are not reflected in Figures 5-1 through 5-12.TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 36 Figure 5-1. Top Five State-Level Point Source VOC Categories

- 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 35,000.0 40,000.0 45,000.0 50,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035Tons 2911 2869 1311 1321 4226

2911 – Petroleum Refining; 2869 – Industrial Organic Chemicals, NEC; 1311 – Crude Petr oleum & Natural Gas; 1321 – Natural Gas L iquids; and 4226 – Special Warehousing & Storage, NEC. Note: SIC 4226 incl udes many “terminals for hire” and a large portion of the repor ted VOC emissions are from the landing of floating roof ta nks, which have subsequently been controlled. 

## Figure 5-2. Top Five State-L evel Area Source VOC Categories

- 200,000.0 400,000.0 600,000.0 800,000.0 1,000,000.0 1,200,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035Tons 2310001000 2401001000 2501060101 2501060051 2460100000

2310001000 – Onshore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production; 2401001000 – Architectural Co atings; 2501060101 – Petroleum Products (Gasoline Service Stations – Stage 2 Displacement Loss, Uncontrolled); 2501060051 – Petroleum Products (Gasoline Service Stations – Stage 1 Submerged Filling); and 2460100000 – Consumer/Commerc ial (All Personal Care Products).TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 37 Figure 5-3. State-Level Oil & Gas Point Source VOC Categories

- 2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0 10,000.0 12,000.0 14,000.0 16,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035Tons 1311 1321 1382

1311 - Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas; 1321 - Natural Ga s Liquids; 1382 - Oil and Gas Exploration Services 

## Figure 5-4. State-Level Oil & Gas Area Source VOC Categories

- 200,000.0 400,000.0 600,000.0 800,000.0 1,000,000.0 1,200,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035Tons 2310001000 2310002000 2310020000

2310001000 – Onshore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (All Pro cesses); 2310002000 – Offshort Oil & Gas Production (All Proces ses); and 2310020000 – Natural Gas Exploration and Pr oduction (All Processes). Note: VOC em issions from 2310002000 and 2310020000 are b elow 500 tpy and do not show up on the graphic due to the scale.TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 38 Figure 5-5. Top Five State-Level Point Source CO Categories

- 50,000.0 100,000.0 150,000.0 200,000.0 250,000.0 300,000.0 350,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035Tons 4911 2895 3334 1321 1311

4911 – Electric Services; 2895 – Carbon Black; 3334 – Primary Alum inum; 1321 – Natural Gas Liquids; and 1311 – Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.



## Figure 5-6. Top Five State-Level Area Source CO Categories

- 50,000.0 100,000.0 150,000.0 200,000.0 250,000.0 300,000.0 350,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035Tons 2810020000 2310001000 2810015000 2610000500 2801500000

2810020000 - Prescribed Burning Of Rangeland; 2310001000 - On S hore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production; 2810015000 - Prescribed Burning For Forest Management; 2610000500 – Open Burning - Land Cl earing Debris; and 2801500000 - Agriculture Field Burning.TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 39 Figure 5-7. State-Level Oil & Gas Point Source CO Categories

- 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0 30,000.0 35,000.0 40,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035Tons 1311 1321 1382

1311 – Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas; 1321 – Natural Gas Liquids; and 1382 – Oil & Gas E xploration Services. Note: CO emission s from 1382 are less than 100 TPY and do not show up on the graphic due to the scale. 

## Figure 5-8. State-Level Oil & Gas Area Source CO Categories

- 50,000.0 100,000.0 150,000.0 200,000.0 250,000.0 300,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035Tons 2310001000 2310020000

2310001000 - On Shore Oil & Gas Explora tion & Production; and 2310020000 - Natu ral Gas Exploration & Production.TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 40 Figure 5-9. Top Five Stat e-Level Point Source NO x 

## Categories

- 50,000.0 100,000.0 150,000.0 200,000.0 250,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035Tons 4911 1321 2869 2911 4922

4911 – Electric Services; 1321 – Natural Gas Liquids; 2869 - Industria l Organic Chemicals, NEC; 2911 – Petroleum Refining; and 4922 – Natural Gas Transmission. 

## Figure 5-10. Top Five St ate-Level Area Source NO x 

## Categories

- 50,000.0 100,000.0 150,000.0 200,000.0 250,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035Tons 2310001000 2104006000 2103006000 2102004000 2102007000

2310001000 - On Shore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production: All Processes; 2104006000 - Resi dential Fuel Combustion: Natural Gas; 2103006000 - Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion: Natural Gas; 21020040 00 - Industrial Fuel Combustion: Distillate Oil: Boilers/IC Eng. ; and 2102007000 - Industrial Fuel Combustion: Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG).TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 41 Figure 5-11. State-Level Oil & Gas Point Source NO x 

## Categories

- 10,000.0 20,000.0 30,000.0 40,000.0 50,000.0 60,000.0 70,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035 1311 1321 1382

1311 – Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas; 1321 – Natural Gas Liquids; and 1382 – Oil & Gas E xploration Services. Note: NOx emissio ns from 1382 are less than 100 TPY and do not show up on the graphic due to the scale. 

## Figure 5-12. State-Level Oil & Gas Area Source NO x 

## Categories

- 50,000.0 100,000.0 150,000.0 200,000.0 250,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035Tons 2310001000 2310002000 2310020000

2310001000 - On Shore Oil & Gas Explorati on & Production; 2310002000 - Off Shore Oil & Gas Production; and 2310020000 - Natural Gas Exploration & Production: All Processes.TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 42 6.0 FORMATTED GROWTH FACTORS
The final step of the projects was the devel opment of the formatted growth factors which was conducted under Task 4 (Develop the Formatted Growth Factors) of the project scope. These formatted growth factors were submitted to TCEQ along with the final re port. ERG provided the developed growth factors and associated data in Microsoft Access format for point sources. For area sources, ERG provided the developed growth fact ors and associated data in TexAER loadable format as well as in Microsoft Access format, where all fields are complete and all mandatory fields have been quality assured. All resulting TexAER loadable files will be entered into TexAER. Any errors or discrepancies identified in the TexAER loadable format or loading process will be corrected by ERG, or otherwise addr essed in consultati on with the TCEQ.

7.0 CAVEATS ASSOCIATED WITH USE OF GROWTH FACTORS
Although a comprehensive suite of point and ar ea source growth factors were developed under this project, there are a numbe r of caveats that should be cons idered when using these growth factors to develop projected emission invent ories. These caveats include the following:

• Growth factors developed under this project do not account for the effects of controls (e.g., regulation control, rule effectiveness, rule penetra tion, fuel switching, technology improvements, etc.). As part of the deve lopment of future emi ssions, the effects of controls should also be considered.

• Growth factors developed under this proj ect are based upon the most recent data projections available (i.e., spri ng/summer 2010) from Economy.com, AEO , Texas state demographics, etc. In the future, thes e data projections will be updated based upon newly available data and/or revised projecti ons. Therefore, as these growth factors become dated, increased care and considera tion should be exercised when using them.

• Growth factors developed under this projec t were developed rela tive to a 2005 base year. Use of these growth factors for a ba se year other than 2005 requires the use of growth factor ratioing. For instance, th e 2013 growth factor for a 2008 base year inventory would be the ratio of the 2013 grow th factor (2005 base year) divided by the 2008 growth factor (2005 base year).

• Growth factors developed under this project were based upon national- or regional-level data that were extrapolated down to individual counties. Ca re should be exercised when applying growth factors to point sectors with a small number of facilities. Local conditions (e.g., new construction, expansion, closings, etc.) may not be accurately represented. Information regarding local “on-the-ground” conditions should take precedence over this project’s growth factors.

• Growth factors developed under this project may not fully re present short-term and/or regional disruptions, such as economic recessions , natural disasters, etc. The full effect of these events typically takes time to permeate through all data projections.TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 43 8.0 REFERENCES
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Chappell L.M. and A. Bollman, 2008. Improving EPA Emissions Forecasts . Presentation presented by at the 17 th 

## Annual Emission Inventory Conference, Portland, Oregon. June 4. Internet address: http://www.epa.gov/ ttn/chief/ conference/ei17/ session6/chappell_pres.pdf
Davalos, 2010. Personal communication between Barbara Davalos (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) and Marty Wolf (ERG). June 2.
Di Natale, 2010. Personal communication betwee n Marisa Di Natale (Economy.com) and Marty Wolf (ERG). June 23.
Economy.com, 2010. Texas county-level historical data and future year projections. Moody’s Economy.com, West Chester, Pennsylvania. April 13.

EIA, 2010. Annual Energy Outlook 2010 With Projections to 2035 . DOE/EIA-0383(2010). April. Internet address: http:// www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html

EIIP, 1999. Emission Projections . Volume X. Emission Inventory Improvement Program. December.

ERCOT, 2009. 2009 ERCOT Planning Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast

. Electric Reliability Coun cil of Texas. May 1.

ERG, 2009a. Minor Point Source Emissions – Phase 2 . Final Report. Prepared for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality by Easter n Research Group, Inc. (ERG), Sacramento, California. March 15.
ERG, 2009b. Minor Point Source Emissions – Phase 3 . Final Report. Prepared for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality by Easter n Research Group, Inc. (ERG), Sacramento, California. March 15.

ERG, 2010. Projection Factors for Point and Area Sources . Work Plan – Final. Prepared for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality by East ern Research Group, Inc. (ERG), Sacramento, California. March 8.
FRB, 2010. Texas Industrial Production Index (TIPI). Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas, Texas. Internet address: http ://www.dallasfed.org/ data/tipi.html
Gage, 2010. Personal communication between Ther esa Gage (ERCOT) and Stacy DeGabriele (ERG). June 2.
Gilbertson, 2010. Personal communication between Kimberly Gilbertson (PUCT) and Stacy DeGabriele (ERG). June 2.TCEQ, Projection Factors Final, August 16, 2010 

## 44 McGee, 2010a. Personal communication between Megan McGee (Economy.c om) and Marty Wolf (ERG). July 1.
McGee, 2010b. Personal communication between Me gan McGee (Economy.com) and Marty Wolf (ERG). March 31.
Muldoon, 2010. Personal communication betwee n Mark Muldoon (TCEQ) and Marty Wolf (ERG). August 9.
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TexasAhead, 2009. 2009-2010 State Economic Forecast . Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. Internet address: http://www.texa sahead.org/economy/f orecasts/fcst0910/

TSDC, 2008. Population Projections for the State of Texas and Counties . Texas State Data Center, Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Res earch, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas.

TWC, 2010. Texas Industry Projections . Texas Workforce Commissi on. Internet address: http://www.tracer2.com/cgi/dataanalysis /AreaSelection.asp?tableName=Indprj

U.S. EPA, 2006. Economic Growth and Analysis System: EGAS 5.0 User Manual and Documentation , U.S. EPA, OAQPS, January 2006. In ternet address: http://www.epa.gov/ ttnecas1/egas5.htm