ATTACHMENT A

PROJECTION FACTORS FOR POINT AND AREA SOURCES
 

PROJECTION FACTORS FOR 

POINT AND AREA SOURCES 

Final 

Prepared for: 

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality 

Air Quality Division 

MC-164, P.O. Box 13087 

Austin, TX 78711-3087

August 16, 2010

Eastern Research Group, Inc. 
ERG No. 0227.03.027.006 

TCEQ Contract No. 582-07-84003 

Work Order No. 582-07-84003-FY10-27 

PROJECTION FACTORS FOR POINT AND AREA SOURCES 

Final 

Prepared for: 

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality 

Air Quality Division 

MC-164, P.O. Box 13087 

Austin, TX 78711-3087 

Attn: Mr. Greg Lauderdale 

Prepared by: 

Eastern Research Group, Inc. 

10860 Gold Center Drive, Suite 275 

Rancho Cordova, CA 95670

August 16, 2010
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

i

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

Section Page 

ES.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .....................................................................................................1 

1.0 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................1 

2.0 DATA COLLECTION ............................................................................................................2 

2.1 Economy.com Economic Data and Projections............................................................ 3 

2.2 Texas Industrial Production Index................................................................................ 3 

2.3 Annual Energy Outlook ................................................................................................ 4 

2.4 EGAS Model................................................................................................................. 4 

2.5 U.S. EPA Projections-Related Research....................................................................... 4 

2.6 Texas State Comptroller Data....................................................................................... 5 

2.7 Texas Workforce Commission ..................................................................................... 5 

2.8 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.................................................................................... 5 

2.9 Industry Associations.................................................................................................... 5 

3.0 DEVELOPMENT OF POINT SOURCE GROWTH FACTORS ..........................................6 

3.1 More Significant Point Source Sectors......................................................................... 7 

3.2 Less Significant Point Source Sectors ........................................................................ 12 

3.3 All Point Source Sectors ............................................................................................. 12 

4.0 DEVELOPMENT OF AREA SOURCE GROWTH FACTORS .........................................13 

4.1 Adjustment from SIC Codes to NAICS Codes........................................................... 13 

4.2 Expanded Use of Economy.com Output Data ............................................................ 13 

4.3 Expanded Use of Annual Energy Outlook Data......................................................... 31 

4.4 Use of Texas-Specific Population Projections............................................................ 32 

4.5 Use of Flat/No Growth Factors................................................................................... 33 

5.0 DATA ANALYSIS ...............................................................................................................34 

6.0 FORMATTED GROWTH FACTORS .................................................................................42 

7.0 CAVEATS ASSOCIATED WITH USE OF GROWTH FACTORS ...................................42 

8.0 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................43 

Tables Page 

Table 3-1. Most Significant VOC Point Source Sectors in TCEQ Point Source Inventory .......... 7 

Table 3-2. Most Significant NOx Point Source Sectors in TCEQ Point Source Inventory............ 7 

Table 3-3. Comparison of Economy.com Output-Based and WDA Employment-Based Growth 

Factors between 2006 and 2016.................................................................................. 10 

Table 4-1. Area Source Category Projection Data Assignments ................................................. 14 

Figures Page 

Figure 4-1. Range of Population Growth Factors for Texas ...................................................... 33 

Figure 4-2. Population Growth Factors for 10 Most Populous Counties in Texas..................... 34 

Figure 5-1. Top Five State-Level Point Source VOC Categories .............................................. 36 

Figure 5-2. Top Five State-Level Area Source VOC Categories ............................................... 36 

Figure 5-3. State-Level Oil & Gas Point Source VOC Categories............................................. 37 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

ii

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) 

Figures Page 

Figure 5-4. State-Level Oil & Gas Area Source VOC Categories ............................................. 37 

Figure 5-5. Top Five State-Level Point Source CO Categories ................................................. 38 

Figure 5-6. Top Five State-Level Area Source CO Categories.................................................. 38 

Figure 5-7. State-Level Oil & Gas Point Source CO Categories ............................................... 39 

Figure 5-8. State-Level Oil & Gas Area Source CO Categories ................................................ 39 

Figure 5-9. Top Five State-Level Point Source NOx Categories................................................ 40 

Figure 5-10. Top Five State-Level Area Source NOx Categories................................................ 40 

Figure 5-11. State-Level Oil & Gas Point Source NOx Categories ............................................. 41 

Figure 5-12. State-Level Oil & Gas Area Source NOx Categories.............................................. 41 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

iii

ACRONYMS

AEO Annual Energy Outlook 

BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis 

BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics 

CO carbon monoxide 

EAC Early Action Compact 

EGAS Economic Growth Analysis System 

EIA Energy Information Administration 

EIIP Emission Inventory Improvement Program 

ERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas 

ERG Eastern Research Group, Inc. 

INGAA Interstate Natural Gas Association of America 

NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard 

NAICS North American Industry Classification System 

NGSA Natural Gas Supply Association 

NOx nitrogen oxides 

PUCT Public Utility Commission of Texas 

RA Rocky Mountain Power Area 

REMI Regional Economic Growth, Inc. 

SCC Source Classification Code 

SERC Southeastern Electric Reliability Council 

SIC Standard Industrial Classification 

SIP State Implementation Plan 

SPP Southwest Power Pool 

TCC Texas Chemical Council 

TCEQ Texas Commission for Environmental Quality 

TIPI Texas Industrial Production Index 

U.S. EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

VOC volatile organic compound 

WDA Workforce Development Area 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

1

ES.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

 Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG) completed the development of a comprehensive 

suite of growth factors for point and area sources. The growth factors were based upon a base 

year of 2005 and were developed for each year between 2006 and 2035. Various demographic 

and economic data were used to develop the growth factors, including: energy projections from 

the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook, economy forecasts from 

Economy.com, Texas-specific population projections, etc. In addition, analysis was conducted 

to demonstrate growth factor variances. 

The developed growth factors were submitted to TCEQ along with the final report. The 

point source growth factors and associated data were provided in Microsoft Access. The area 

source growth factors and associated data were provided in a TexAER loadable format, as well 

as in a Microsoft Access format, where all fields are complete and all mandatory fields have 

been quality assured. All resulting TexAER loadable files will be entered into TexAER. Any 

errors or discrepancies identified in the TexAER loadable format or loading process will be 

corrected by ERG, or otherwise addressed in consultation with the TCEQ. 

1.0 INTRODUCTION 

Emission inventories are a core component of air quality analyses. Inventories are used 

to estimate the quantity of emissions generated by a wide range of source types (i.e., point 

sources, area sources, on-road motor vehicles, and nonroad mobile sources) and pollutants (e.g., 

criteria air pollutants, hazardous air pollutants, etc.). Inventories are used as inputs to air quality 

models for simulating air quality concentrations based on “business as usual” and/or control 

scenarios for determining future-year compliance with federal National Ambient Air Quality 

Standards (NAAQS) within State Implementation Plans (SIPs). 

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) uses base year inventories 

and future year projections to develop SIPs. In general, future year inventory projections are 

estimated by applying growth and control factors to base year emissions. As part of a project 

completed in 2005, Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG) developed a suite of area source growth 

factors through 2020 (and backcasting factors for years dating back to 1990) based upon a 2002 

base year. For ongoing SIP development, TCEQ now needs to estimate future year emissions 

out to 2035 for both point and area sources. As a result, the purpose of this project is the 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

2

development of growth factors for calendar years 2006 through 2035 based upon a 2005 base 

year. 

The remainder of this report describes in detail the steps involved with developing the 

Texas county-level point and area source growth factors. The remainder of the report is 

presented in the following sections: 

• Section 2.0 describes the collection of data used to develop the point and area source 

growth factors; 

• Section 3.0 explains the development of the point source growth factors; 

• Section 4.0 explains the development of the area source growth factors; 

• Section 5.0 briefly describes the data analysis that was conducted following the 

development of the preliminary growth factors; 

• Section 6.0 explains the final growth factor formatting; 

• Section 7.0 identifies a number of important caveats associated with the use of growth 

factors; and 

• Section 8.0 lists all references used in the development of the point and area source 

growth factors. 

2.0 DATA COLLECTION 

As part of the previous 2005 project, area source growth factors were developed using the 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Economic Growth Analysis System 

(EGAS) (U.S. EPA, 2006) using data and model inputs from the following sources: 

• Policy Insight model from Regional Economic Growth, Inc. (REMI); 

• Economy.com economic projections; and 

• Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). 

The development of point source and area source category growth factors for calendar years 

2006 through 2035 for this project built upon the 2005 project. 

The project work plan (ERG, 2010) specifically indicated that the following data sources 

would be obtained and analyzed: 

• Economy.com economic data and projections; 

• Texas Industrial Production Index (TIPI); 

• Annual Energy Outlook (AEO); and 

• Internal data mappings from the EGAS model. 

Beyond these identified data sources, ERG also examined and analyzed a number of 

other supplemental sources of data under Task 2 (Obtain, Analyze, and Compile Growth Factor 

Data) of the project scope. All data sources reviewed for this project are described below. 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

3

2.1 Economy.com Economic Data and Projections 

Historical economic data and future year economic projections were obtained from 

Moody’s Economy.com (Economy.com, 2010). Economy.com’s future year projections are 

recalibrated each month based upon the most recent monthly economic indicators. As a result, 

economic changes are gradually reflected over time in the future year projections. For instance, 

at the national level, future year projections are currently being adjusted every month to account 

for the ongoing economic recession and other regional impacts. At the local level, the economic 

and demographic impacts of Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 first appeared in the future year 

projections for New Orleans and southern Louisiana, only. Over time, the long-term ripple 

effects of the resultant economic downturn and population shifts gradually appeared in Texas 

and the broader region. Likewise, the effects of the ongoing Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the 

Gulf of Mexico have just started to appear in the future forecasts for metropolitan areas located 

in Southern Louisiana (i.e., New Orleans, Houma, Lafayette, and Lake Charles) and the Florida 

Panhandle (i.e., Pensacola, Panama City, and Crestview). It is possible that there may be 

potential long-term effects on the oil and petrochemical industry in Houston and Louisiana due 

to reduced drilling and production, more stringent off-shore permitting, and overall higher costs, 

but these have not been quantified in Economy.com’s future year projections (Di Natale, 2010). 

The particular Texas data set obtained from Economy.com was county-level gross 

product expressed in millions of constant 2000 dollars for each 4-digit North American Industry 

Classification System (NAICS) code. These data were obtained in April 2010 at no cost through 

TCEQ’s existing Data Buffet license with Economy.com. Product output data were obtained 

because U.S. EPA and the Emission Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP) have indicated that 

the use of product output as a growth indicator is preferred over the use of employment, 

earnings, or value added statistics (EIIP, 1999). Although economic data from REMI‘s Policy 

Insight model are similar to Economy.com’s data, the Policy Insight model was prohibitively 

expensive and, therefore, not utilized for this project. 

2.2 Texas Industrial Production Index 

The project work plan identified the Texas Industrial Production Index (TIPI), produced by the 

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as a potential source of projections data. Research found that the 

TIPI measures the changes in output levels in the Texas economy for the manufacturing (i.e., durable 

and nondurable goods), mining, and utility sectors on a monthly basis (FRB, 2010). Historical data 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

4

are available from 1969 to the present. The TIPI is not intended to be used for forecasting and, thus, 

projection data were not available from TIPI. Therefore, the TIPI was not utilized for this project. 

2.3 Annual Energy Outlook 

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) annually 

publishes the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO); the 2010 version with projections out to 2035 was 

released in April 2010 (EIA, 2010). The AEO provides sector-specific consumption projections, 

as well as production projections, at the regional level. Information regarding regional petroleum 

refining capacity projections is also available. U.S. EPA staff working on emission projections 

have indicated that AEO is considered to be reliable source of projections data for combustion 

sources (Chappell and Bollman, 2008; Chappell, 2010). Therefore, the AEO was used 

extensively for this project. 

2.4 EGAS Model 

Although the EGAS model was not directly used to calculate growth factors, the internal 

data mappings of the EGAS Version 5.0 model were reviewed. These internal data mappings 

were used as the starting point for the assignment of activity data surrogates to specific Source 

Classification Codes (SCCs) (Pechan, 2004). 

2.5 U.S. EPA Projections-Related Research 

The project work plan indicated that any U.S. EPA research into the relationship of 

energy- and non-energy-based emissions and the potential for growth factor development would 

be investigated. Since 2007, U.S. EPA has been analyzing a long-held fundamental assumption 

that economic growth is an appropriate surrogate for emissions growth. In particular, U.S. EPA 

has been conducting a sector-level analysis of energy (i.e., combustion) emissions versus nonenergy (i.e., process) emissions for 10 key industries, which included the following: 

• Petroleum refining; 

• Pulp and paper; 

• Iron and steel; 

• Cement; 

• Primary aluminum; 

• Secondary aluminum; 

• Black carbon; 

• Copper; 

• Sulfuric acid; and 

• Glass 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

5

At the time when the project work plan was developed, it was expected that the results of 

U.S. EPA’s analysis would be available for use in this project. However, this analysis has been 

undergoing internal U.S. EPA review for the past six months and is still not available for public 

use (Chappell, 2010). Although U.S. EPA’s analysis could potentially contain some significant 

findings related to growth factors, these findings could not be incorporated into the Texas growth 

factors due to the timing of this project. 

2.6 Texas State Comptroller Data 

The Texas State Comptroller has published historical and projected state product data for 

the period from 1990 to 2039 (TexasAhead, 2009). Although this time frame corresponds with 

the required growth factor period (i.e., 2005 to 2035), the data were only provided at the state 

level. In addition, the product data were only provided at a fairly high level of aggregation (e.g., 

agriculture, mining, construction, manufacturing, etc.). Therefore, these data were not utilized 

for this project. 

2.7 Texas Workforce Commission 

The Texas Workforce Commission published a limited set of employment projections for 

the 28 Workforce Development Areas (WDAs) located in Texas (TWC, 2010). The employment 

projections covered a 10-year period of time from 2006-2016 and were disaggregated to the 3-

digit NAICS level (with some limited details down to the 4-digit NAICS level). Because of the 

short projection time frame, these data were not used for this project. 

2.8 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas was contacted about long-term industry projections. 

Specific sector-level projections were not available. However, Federal Reserve Bank staff 

indicated that over the last 30 years, annual Texas growth has been approximately 1 percent 

higher than the national average and it is expected that this trend will continue for the next 20 

years (Davalos, 2010; Saving, 2009). 

2.9 Industry Associations 

As part of ERG’s research effort, various industry trade associations were contacted to 

identify potential sources of projections data. In particular, focus was given to five major 

industry sectors (i.e., electric power generation, transmission, and distribution; oil and gas 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

6

extraction; basic chemical manufacturing; petroleum and coal products manufacturing; and 

natural gas pipeline transportation). 

For the electric power generation, transmission, and distribution sector, ERG contacted 

the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT). However, the PUCT does not address 

electricity generation and suggested contacting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas 

(ERCOT). The PUCT is involved with electricity transmission and distribution companies, but 

does not develop long-term transmission and distribution growth projections (Gilbertson, 2010). 

The ERCOT was also contacted regarding available long-term projections (Gage, 2010). 

However, ERCOT’s forecast is limited to a 10-year plan that was developed using a set of 

econometric model utilizing weather, economic, and demographic data to project the trends of 

historical load data for the past 6 years (ERCOT, 2009). 

For the remaining four major industry sectors (i.e., oil and gas extraction; basic chemical 

manufacturing; petroleum and coal products manufacturing; and natural gas pipeline 

transportation), ERG contacted the following industry groups: 

• Texas Energy Group; 

• Texas Alliance of Energy Producers; 

• Society of Petroleum Engineers; 

• Texas Oil and Gas Association; 

• Texas Chemical Council (TCC); 

• Clean Coal Technology Foundation of Texas; 

• Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA); and 

• Interstate Natural Gas Association of America (INGAA). 

No projections information was obtained from any of these industry groups. 

3.0 DEVELOPMENT OF POINT SOURCE GROWTH FACTORS 

The development of point source growth factors was also conducted under Task 2 - 

Obtain, Analyze, and Compile Growth Factor Data of the project scope. Because of the large 

number of industry sectors associated with TCEQ’s point source inventory, a prioritized 

approach was used to assess the importance of individual point source sectors. Since one of the 

primary uses of future year projected inventories in Texas will be for ozone SIPs, ERG ranked 

the existing 2005 TCEQ point source inventory by volatile organic compounds (VOC) and 

nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions for each sector (as defined by 4-digit NAICS code). The most 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

7

significant sectors contributing up to a cumulative 90 percent of the total VOC and NOx

emissions are shown in Tables 3-1 and 3-2. 

Table 3-1. Most Significant VOC Point Source Sectors in TCEQ Point Source Inventory 

NAICS NAICS Description 

Annual VOC 

Emissions 

% of 

Total 

Cumulative 

% 

3241 Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing 30,455.8 21.14% 21.14% 

3251 Basic Chemical Manufacturing 22,451.2 15.58% 36.72% 

2111 Oil and Gas Extraction 21,453.9 14.89% 51.61% 

4931 Warehousing and Storage 7,775.0 5.40% 57.01% 

3252 

Resin, Synthetic Rubber, and Artificial Synthetic Fibers and Filaments 

Manufacturing 7,567.9 5.25% 62.26% 

4862 Pipeline Transportation of Natural Gas 5,542.5 3.85% 66.11% 

3212 Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufacturing 4,787.1 3.32% 69.43% 

3221 Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Mills 4,740.0 3.29% 72.72% 

4861 Pipeline Transportation of Crude Oil 4,237.8 2.94% 75.67% 

2211 Electric Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution 4,057.1 2.82% 78.48% 

4247 Petroleum and Petroleum Products Merchant Wholesalers 3,703.7 2.57% 81.05% 

3261 Plastics Product Manufacturing 3,317.2 2.30% 83.35% 

4869 Other Pipeline Transportation 2,105.1 1.46% 84.82% 

3211 Sawmills and Wood Preservation 1,379.6 0.96% 85.77% 

3273 Cement and Concrete Product Manufacturing 1,327.6 0.92% 86.70% 

3323 Architectural and Structural Metals Manufacturing 1,149.2 0.80% 87.49% 

3371 

Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cabinet 

Manufacturing 1,075.5 0.75% 88.24% 

3313 Alumina and Aluminum Production and Processing 1,023.8 0.71% 88.95% 

3315 Foundries 926.4 0.64% 89.59% 

2213 Water, Sewage and Other Systems 807.4 0.56% 90.15% 

 Total 144,069.8 

 Table 3-2. Most Significant NOx Point Source Sectors in TCEQ Point Source Inventory 

NAICS NAICS Description 

Annual NOx

Emissions 

% of 

Total 

Cumulative 

% 

2211 Electric Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution 178,101.9 38.77% 38.77% 

2111 Oil and Gas Extraction 82,216.3 17.90% 56.67% 

3251 Basic Chemical Manufacturing 54,531.7 11.87% 68.54% 

3241 Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing 39,061.7 8.50% 77.05% 

4862 Pipeline Transportation of Natural Gas 34,676.1 7.55% 84.59% 

3273 Cement and Concrete Product Manufacturing 26,422.7 5.75% 90.35% 

 Total 459,356.7 

Comparison of the two tables shows that all six of the significant NOx source sectors listed in 

Table 3-2 are also included as significant VOC source sectors in Table 3-1. 

3.1 More Significant Point Source Sectors 

Based on the rankings presented in Tables 3-1 and 3-2, additional detailed research was 

conducted for the more significant point source sectors (i.e., top 90 percent of the VOC and NOx

point source inventories). As described above, numerous industry associations were contacted 

with minimal success. 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

8

Besides the Economy.com data, the Texas Workforce Commission’s 10-year (2006-

2016) employment projections at the 3-digit NAICS level for the 28 Texas Workforce 

Development Areas (WDAs) were the only data that were reasonably comparable in terms of 

level of detail. Growth factors derived from the Texas Workforce Commission’s 10-year 

employment projections were compared to similar growth factors derived from Economy.com 

data (aggregated to the level of the 28 WDAs) for the same period. The 28 WDAs and their 

associated counties are as follows: 

• Alamo – Atacosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Frio, Gillespie, Guadalupe, Karnes, 

Kendall, Kerr, Medina, Wilson 

• Brazos Valley – Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Leon, Madison, Robertson, Washington 

• Cameron County – Cameron 

• Capital Area – Travis 

• Central Texas – Bell, Coryell, Hamilton, Lampasas, Milam, Mills, San Saba 

• Coastal Bend – Aransas, Bee, Brooks, Duval, Jim Wells, Kenedy, Kleberg, Live 

Oak, McMullen, Nueces, Refugio, San Patricio 

• Concho Valley – Coke, Concho, Crockett, Irion, Kimble, Mason, McCulloch, 

Menard, Reagan, Schleicher, Sterling, Sutton, Tom Green 

• Dallas County – Dallas 

• Deep East Texas – Angelina, Houston, Jasper, Nacogdoches, Newton, Polk, Sabine, 

San Augustine, San Jacinto, Shelby, Trinity, Tyler 

• East Texas – Anderson, Camp, Cherokee, Gregg, Harrison, Henderson, Marion, 

Panola, Rains, Rusk, Smith, Upshur, Van Zandt, Wood 

• Golden Crescent – Calhoun, DeWitt, Goliad, Gonzales, Jackson, Lavaca, Victoria 

• Gulf Coast – Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, 

Liberty, Matagorda, Montgomery, Walker, Waller, Wharton 

• Heart of Texas – Bosque, Falls, Freestone, Hill, Limestone, McLennan 

• Lower Rio Grande Valley – Hidalgo, Starr, Willacy 

• Middle Rio Grande – Dimmit, Edwards, Kinney, LaSalle, Maverick, Real, Uvalde, 

Val Verde, Zavala 

• North Central – Collin, Denton, Ellis, Erath, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, 

Navarro, Palo Pinto, Parker, Rockwall, Somervell, Wise 

• North East – Bowie, Cass, Delta, Franklin, Hopkins, Lamar, Morris, Red River, 

Titus 

• North Texas – Archer, Baylor, Clay, Cottle, Foard, Hardeman, Jack, Montague, 

Wichita, Wilbarger, Young 

• Panhandle – Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth, Dallam, 

Deaf Smith, Donley, Gray, Hall, Hansford, Hartley, Hemphill, Hutchinson, 

Lipscomb, Moore, Ochiltree, Oldham, Parmer, Potter, Randall, Roberts, Sherman, 

Swisher, Wheeler 

• Permian Basin – Andrews, Borden, Crane, Dawson, Ector, Gaines, Glasscock, 

Howard, Loving, Martin, Midland, Pecos, Reeves, Terrell, Upton, Ward, Winkler 

• Rural Capital – Bastrop, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Fayette, Hays, Lee, Llano, 

Williamson 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

9

• South East Texas – Hardin, Jefferson, Orange 

• South Plains – Bailey, Cochran, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd, Garza, Hale, Hockley, 

King, Lamb, Lubbock, Lynn, Motley, Terry, Yoakum 

• South Texas – Jim Hogg, Webb, Zapata 

• Tarrant County – Tarrant 

• Texoma – Cooke, Fannin, Grayson 

• Upper Rio Grande – Brewster, Culberson, El Paso, Hudspeth, Jeff Davis, Presidio 

• West Central – Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Eastland, Fisher, Haskell, 

Jones, Kent, Knox, Mitchell, Nolan, Runnels, Scurry, Shackelford, Stephens, 

Stonewall, Taylor, Throckmorton 

The comparison of the Texas Workforce Commission employment-based growth factors 

with the Economy.com output-based growth factors for the 10-year period between 2006 and 

2016 is presented in Table 3-3. The difference between the growth factors was calculated by 

subtracting the output-based growth factor from the employment-based growth factor. Thus, a 

positive difference represents a larger employment-based growth factor, while a negative 

difference represents a larger output-based growth factor. The maximum and minimum 

differences are shown in Table 3-3. 

From Table 3-3, it can be seen that there is a wide disparity between the employmentbased growth factors and the output-based growth factors. Since there are both positive and 

negative differences for most 3-digit NAICS codes, it is not clear whether the employment-based 

growth factors or output-based growth factors are more accurate. For the positive differences 

(i.e., larger employment-based growth factors than output-based growth factors), one plausible 

explanation is an expected increase in administration and other support staff that do not directly 

impact output production. For negative differences (i.e., larger output-based growth factors than 

employment-based growth factors), a possible explanation is expected increases in sector 

efficiency which boost output without requiring additional employment. Based upon the wide 

variability of differences shown in Table 3-3, and since U.S. EPA and the Emission Inventory 

Improvement Program have indicated that the use of product output as a growth indicator is 

preferred over the use of employment, earnings, or value added statistics (EIIP, 1999), the 

Economy.com output data were used to develop growth factors for 15 of the 20 most significant 

point source sectors (i.e., all sectors listed in Table 3-1, except for 2211, 3241, 4861, 4862, and 

4869). 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

10

Table 3-3. Comparison of Economy.com Output-Based and WDA EmploymentBased Growth Factors between 2006 and 2016 

Maximum Minimum 

NAICS NAICS Description Difference WDA Difference WDA 

211 Oil and Gas Extraction 0.5485 Deep East -0.1916 Capital 

212 Mining (excl. Oil and Gas) 1.0982 Deep East -0.2003 West Central 

213 Mining Support Activities 0.6178 Deep East -0.4663 Tarrant 

221 Utilities 0.2103 Texoma -0.6437 North Central 

236 Building Construction 0.2968 Cameron -0.3349 Heart of Texas 

237 Heavy Construction 0.2819 South -0.5126 Cameron 

311 Food Manufacturing 0.4490 Concho Valley -0.2812 Texoma 

312 Beverage Manufacturing 0.7865 Rural Capital -0.5741 Capital 

313 Textile Mills 1.1623 Gulf Coast 0.7281 Dallas 

314 Textile Product Mills 1.3504 Rural Capital -0.9768 South 

315 Apparel Manufacturing 1.0917 Brazos Valley 0.2634 Lower Rio 

Grande 

316 Leather Product Manufacturing 0.9324 West Central 0.5593 North Central 

321 Wood Product Manufacturing 0.5908 South East -3.0596 Cameron 

322 Paper Manufacturing 0.3917 Panhandle -0.1142 Alamo 

323 Printing and Related Activities 0.3741 South Plains -3.0058 Cameron 

324 Petroleum and Coal Products 0.6629 East 0.2992 Capital 

325 Chemical Manufacturing 0.2711 Concho Valley -0.6927 Rural Capital 

326 Plastic and Rubber Products 0.4258 Brazos Valley -0.5951 Alamo 

327 Nonmetallic Mineral Products 0.6700 Middle Rio 

Grande 

-0.5843 Concho Valley 

331 Primary Metal Manufacturing 0.5549 Lower Rio Grande -0.3379 North Central 

332 Fabricated Metal Products 0.2715 Golden Crescent -0.3516 South 

333 Machinery Manufacturing 0.8758 Lower Rio Grande -0.6096 Rural Capital 

334 Computer and Electronic 

Products 

0.7610 Brazos Valley -0.2903 North Central 

335 Electrical Manufacturing 0.0797 South East -1.2328 Tarrant 

336 Transportation Equipment 0.7680 South East -0.6091 Concho Valley 

337 Furniture Manufacturing 1.1420 Permian Basin -0.3561 Heart of Texas 

339 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.5165 Concho Valley -0.4122 Rural Capital 

Economy.com output based growth factors were not used for NAICS 2211 (Electric 

Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution) because of the availability of Texas-specific 

projections in the AEO (EIA, 2010). Fuel-specific generation projections for the ERCOT 

electricity market module region (or power pool) were obtained from the Main Reference Case 

Tables of the AEO (Table 73: Electric Power Projections for Electricity Market Module Regions 

– Electric Reliability Council of Texas) (EIA, 2010). The ERCOT region covers the vast 

majority of Texas; only small portions of the state fall in other regions (i.e., portions of the 

Panhandle and northeast Texas in the Southwest Power Pool [SPP], portions of east Texas in the 

Southeastern Electric Reliability Council [SERC], and far west Texas in the Rocky Mountain 

Power Area [RA]). It was assumed that the ERCOT region was applicable for the entire state. 

These AEO generation projections were previously used by ERG for development of 2018 

projected inventories for the Western Regional Air Partnership and are generally assumed to be 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

11

of high quality. It should be noted that although the Texas population is expected to grow 

steadily, there appear to be some slight decreases in the electricity generation projections. 

Definitive answers cannot be provided without an extensive analysis of the AEO modeling, but 

the decreases in the electricity generation projections may be due to conservation efforts and 

demand-side management. 

Originally, ERG intended to use the Economy.com output data for NAICS 3241 

(Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing) (i.e., including refineries). However, TCEQ 

review of the initial projections based on Economy.com output data indicated a decrease, in spite 

of an increase in output data in a number of related sectors (e.g., organic chemicals, carbon 

black, plastics, petroleum bulk stations, special warehousing and storage, etc.) (Muldoon, 2010). 

Thus, instead of Economy.com output data, ERG used AEO domestic refining capacity data 

(Table 102: Domestic Refinery Distillation Base Capacity and Expansion) for Petroleum 

Administration for Defense (PAD) District III (i.e., Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, 

New Mexico, and Texas) to project NAICS 3241 (EIA, 2010). 

ERG also originally intended to use Economy.com output data for NAICS 4861 (Pipeline 

Transportation of Crude Oil), 4862 (Pipeline Transportation of Natural Gas), and 4869 (Other 

Pipeline Transportation). However, after compiling the Economy.com output data, it was 

unexpectedly determined that Economy.com output data were entirely unavailable for these three 

NAICS codes. Economy.com staff were contacted in an effort to identify the reason for the 

unavailability of output data for these three NAICS code. The Economy.com staff response was 

that for specialized industries (i.e., pipeline transportation) that there is typically one of three 

underlying reasons for data unavailability: a small industry sample size, a poor industry 

response, or one dominant establishment. If one of these reasons occurs, then the Bureau of 

Labor Statistics (BLS), whose data Economy.com uses, will not publish employment estimates 

in order to maintain data quality and to protect the privacy of survey respondents (McGee, 

2010a). Another potential reason is that pipelines, unlike most other traditional point sources, 

stretch across multiple counties. As a result, it is probably very difficult to allocate output, 

employment, and other economic data associated with pipelines to individual counties. Instead 

of Economy.com data, AEO crude oil and natural gas production data (Table 113: Lower 48 

Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region; Table 114: Lower 48 Natural Gas 

Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region) for the Gulf Coast and Southwest Oil and 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

12

Gas Supply Model Regions were used to project NAICS codes 4861 and 4862, respectively 

(EIA, 2010). Since the specific definition of NAICS 4869 (Other Pipeline Transportation) is 

ambiguous, Economy.com data for NAICS 3251 (Basic Chemical Manufacturing) were used as a 

surrogate. 

3.2 Less Significant Point Source Sectors 

For the less significant point source sectors (i.e., the bottom 10 percent of the VOC and 

NOx point source inventories), the Economy.com output data were used as the starting point for 

the development of growth factors for all sector/county combinations. The sector-specific 

growth factor for a particular year was estimated by dividing the sector-specific output for that 

year by the sector specific output for the 2005 base year. A growth factor greater than 1.0000 

indicates (positive) growth, while growth factor less than 1.0000 indicates a contracting sector. 

A growth factor of exactly 1.0000 represents no growth. 

3.3 All Point Source Sectors 

One particular area of concern associated with the use of Economy.com output data for 

both the more and less significant point source sectors was that for certain NAICS/county 

combinations the derived growth factors may be overly large. In some cases, this may, in fact, 

represent an industry sector that is growing rapidly. However, in other instances, these growth 

factors may be the result of insignificant county-level outputs. County-level output estimates are 

based upon detailed county-level employment estimates and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ 

(BEA) state- and metropolitan area-level output data. For the larger counties, actual output data 

exist; however, for the smaller counties, Economy.com gap-fills the output estimates by 

allocating the state-level output (minus actual output data for the large counties) based upon 

employment estimates. For some NAICS/county combinations, the output estimates are as small 

as 1 x 10-8 million dollars (i.e., 1 cent). These small output estimates are not realistic and are 

simply an artifact of Economy.com’s gap-filling process. After consulting with TCEQ staff, it 

was decided that for any NAICS/county combinations (both more and less significant sectors) 

with 2005 output values less than $1,000,000 that growth factors would be based on county-level 

population growth instead of output data from Economy.com. The basis of this decision was that 

BEA does not report any data less than $1,000,000 (McGee, 2010b). This substitution of 

county-level population growth instead of Economy.com output data was used for 48,939 point 

source NAICS/county combinations out of a total of 72,136. 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

13

4.0 DEVELOPMENT OF AREA SOURCE GROWTH FACTORS 

The development of area source growth factors was also conducted under Task 2 (Obtain, 

Analyze, and Compile Growth Factor Data) of the project scope. After analyzing all of the 

collected data, the specific data assignments for each area source category were developed. 

These data assignments are presented in Table 4-1. Table 4-1 includes a comprehensive listing 

of all area source categories included in TCEQ’s existing area source inventory. At the request 

of TCEQ, some additional area source categories have been added, including: disaggregated oil 

and gas categories, gas cans, and various minor point source categories developed by ERG under 

previous projects (ERG, 2009a; ERG, 2009b). 

The project work plan indicated that the EGAS internal data mappings would be used as 

the starting point for the data assignments of growth factors to specific area source categories 

(ERG, 2010). Some of the EGAS internal data mappings were followed exactly, but significant 

adjustments were made to other mappings. These adjustments included adjustment from SIC 

codes to NAICS codes, expanded use of Economy.com output data (adjusted with population 

growth data for NAICS/county combinations with less than $1,000,000 output in 2005), 

expanded use of AEO data, use of Texas-specific population projections, and use of flat/no 

growth factors. These adjustments are described below. 

4.1 Adjustment from SIC Codes to NAICS Codes 

For many industrial categories, the EGAS model utilized SIC-specific output data from 

REMI’s Policy Insight model. However, economic data have transitioned from SIC-based 

reporting to NAICS-based reporting over the last couple of years. Therefore, the available 

Economy.com data were all in terms of NAICS. In general, the equivalence between SIC codes 

and NAICS codes was fairly straightforward, but a few cases required some engineering 

judgment to assign an appropriate NAICS code. 

4.2 Expanded Use of Economy.com Output Data 

In some instances, the Economy.com NAICS-based output data were more detailed than 

the Policy Insight SIC-based output data. This allowed output data to be used for additional 

source categories. Some examples included commercial cooking (SCC 2302xxxxxx), 

construction (SCC 2311xxxxxx), graphic arts (SCC 2425000000), etc. 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 14 

Final, August 16, 2010 Table 4-1. Area Source Category Projection Data Assignments SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2102004000 Industrial Fuel Combustion - Distillate Oil (Boilers/IC Engines) AEO regional consumption data 2102005000 Industrial Fuel Combustion - Residual Oil AEO regional consumption data 2102006000 Industrial Fuel Combustion - Natural Gas (Boilers/IC Engines) AEO regional consumption data 2102006001 Industrial Fuel Combustion - Natural Gas (Boilers) AEO regional consumption data 2102006002 Industrial Fuel Combustion - Natural Gas (IC Engines) AEO regional consumption data 2102007000 Industrial Fuel Combustion - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) AEO regional consumption data 2102011000 Industrial Fuel Combustion – Kerosene AEO regional consumption data 2103004000 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion - Distillate Oil AEO regional consumption data 2103005000 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion - Residual Oil AEO regional consumption data 2103006000 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion - Natural Gas AEO regional consumption data 2103007000 

Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) AEO regional consumption data 

2103011000 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion - Kerosene AEO regional consumption data 2104004000 Residential Fuel Combustion - Distillate Oil AEO regional consumption data 2104005000 Residential Fuel Combustion - Residual Oil AEO regional consumption data 2104006000 Residential Fuel Combustion - Natural Gas AEO regional consumption data 2104007000 

Residential Fuel Combustion - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) AEO regional consumption data 

2104008100 Residential Fuel Combustion - Wood - Fireplaces AEO regional consumption data 2104008210 

Residential Fuel Combustion - Wood - Woodstove Fireplace Inserts (Non-EPA Certified) AEO regional consumption data 

2104008230 

Residential Fuel Combustion - Wood - Woodstove Fireplace Inserts (EPA Certified Catalytic) AEO regional consumption data 

2104008300 

Residential Fuel Combustion - Wood - Woodstoves (Freestanding) AEO regional consumption data 

2104008320 

Residential Fuel Combustion - Wood - Woodstoves (Freestanding - EPA Certified Non-Catalytic) AEO regional consumption data 

2104008330 

Residential Fuel Combustion - Wood - Woodstoves (Freestanding - EPA Certified Catalytic) AEO regional consumption data 

2104011000 Residential Fuel Combustion - Kerosene AEO regional consumption data 2294000000 Paved Road Dust - All Roads Population 2302002100 Commercial Cooking - Conveyorized Charbroiling 

Economy.com output data (91); population (163) 

NAICS 7221, 722Places, Limited SeServices) 

2302002200 Commercial Cooking - Under-Fired Charbroiling 

Economy.com output data (91); population (163) 

NAICS 7221, 722Places, Limited SeServices) 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 15 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2302003000 Commercial Cooking - Deep Fat Frying Economy.com output data (91); population (163) NAICS 7221, 722

Places, Limited SeServices) 2302003100 Commercial Cooking - Flat Griddle Frying Economy.com output data (91); population (163) NAICS 7221, 722Places, Limited SeServices) 

2302003200 Commercial Cooking - Clamshell Griddle Frying 

Economy.com output data (91); population (163) 

NAICS 7221, 722Places, Limited SeServices) 

2302010000 

Meat Products Manufacturing 

Economy.com output data (84); population (170) 

NAICS 3116 (AniProcessing) 

2302040000 Grain Mill Products Manufacturing 

Economy.com output data (39); population (215) NAICS 3112 (Gra

2302050000 Food Manufacturing - Bakery Products 

Economy.com output data (64); population (190) 

NAICS 3118 (BakManufacturing) 

2302070001 Food Manufacturing – Breweries 

Economy.com output data (64); population (190) NAICS 3121 (Bev

2302070005 Food Manufacturing - Wineries 

Economy.com output data (64); population (190) NAICS 3121 (Bev

2304050000 Nonferrous Foundries (Castings) 

Economy.com output data (43); population (211) NAICS 3315 (Fou

2305070000 Concrete, Gypsum, and Plaster Products Manufacturing 

Economy.com output data (40); population (214) 

NAICS 3273, 327Manufacturing, LManufacturing) 

2306010000 Asphalt Paving/Roofing Materials Manufacturing 

Economy.com output data (108); population (146) 

NAICS 3241 (PetManufacturing) 

2307020000 Wood Products Manufacturing - Sawmills/Planning Mills 

Economy.com output data (35); population (219) NAICS 3211 (Saw

2307060000 

Wood Products Manufacturing - Miscellaneous Wood Products 

Economy.com output data (79); population (175) 

NAICS 3219 (OthManufacturing) 

2309000000 Fabricated Metals Manufacturing - All Processes (Total 

Economy.com output data (83); population (171) 

NAICS 3329 (OthManufacturing) 

2309100010 Fabricated Metals Manufacturing - Electroplating 

Economy.com output data (43); population (211) 

NAICS 3328 (Coaand Allied Activit

2309100080 

Fabricated Metals Manufacturing - Hot Dip Galvanizing (Zinc) 

Economy.com output data (43); population (211) 

NAICS 3328 (Coaand Allied Activit

2310000000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - All Processes (Total: All Processes) AEO – natural gas production 

2310000220 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - All Processes (Drill Rigs) AEO – natural gas production 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 16 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2310000330 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - All Processes (Artificial Lift) AEO – natural gas production 2310000440 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - All Processes (Saltwater Disposal Engines) AEO – natural gas production 2310001000 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - All Processes (On-Shore: Total: All Processes) AEO – onshore crude oil production 2310002000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil And Gas Production (Total: All Processes) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310002301 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil And Gas Production (Flares: Continuous Pilot Light) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310002305 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil And Gas Production (Flares: Flaring) Operations 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310002401 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil And Gas Production (Pneumatic Pumps): Gas And Oil Wells 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310002411 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil And Gas Production (Pressure/Level Controllers) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310002421 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil And Gas Production (Cold Vents) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310010000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Crude Petroleum (Total: All Processes) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310010100 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Crude Petroleum (Oil Well Heaters) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310010200 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Crude Petroleum (Oil Well Tanks - Flashing & Standing/Working/Breathing) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310010300 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Crude Petroleum (Oil Well Pneumatic Devices) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310010700 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Crude Petroleum (Oil Well Fugitives) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310010800 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Crude Petroleum (Oil Well Truck Loading) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310011000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Production (Total: All Processes) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310011020 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Production (Storage Tanks: Crude Oil) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310011100 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Production (Heater Treater) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 17 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2310011201 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Production (Tank Truck/Railcar Loading: Crude Oil) AEO – onshore crude oil production 2310011450 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Production (Wellhead) AEO – onshore crude oil production 2310011500 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: All Processes) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310011501 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: Connectors) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310011502 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: Flanges) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310011503 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: Open Ended Lines) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310011504 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: Pumps) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310011505 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: Valves) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310011506 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives: Other) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310012000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Production (Total: All Processes) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310012020 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Production (Storage Tanks: Crude Oil) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310012201 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Production (Barge Loading: Crude Oil) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310012511 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Connectors: Oil Streams) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310012512 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Flanges: Oil) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310012515 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Valves: Oil) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310012516 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Other: Oil) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310012521 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Connectors: Oil/Water Streams) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310012522 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Flanges: Oil/Water) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310012525 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Valves: Oil/Water) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 18 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2310012526 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Production (Fugitives, Other: Oil/Water) AEO – offshore crude oil production 2310020000 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Natural Gas (Total: All Processes) AEO – natural gas production 2310020600 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Natural Gas (Compressor Engines) AEO – natural gas production 2310020700 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Natural Gas (Gas Well Fugitives) AEO – natural gas production 

2310020800 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Natural Gas (Gas Well Truck Loading) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Total: All Processes) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021010 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Storage Tanks: Condensate) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021030 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Tank Truck/Railcar Loading: Condensate) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021100 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Gas Well Heaters) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021101 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 2Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines < 50 Hp) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021102 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 2Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines 50 To 499 Hp) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021103 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 2Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines 500+ Hp) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021109 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Total: All Natural Gas Fired 2Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021201 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines <50 Hp) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021202 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines 50 To 499 Hp) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021203 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines 500+ Hp) AEO – natural gas production 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 19 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2310021209 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Total: All Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Lean Burn Compressor Engines) AEO – natural gas production 2310021300 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Gas Well Pneumatic Devices) AEO – natural gas production 2310021301 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines <50 Hp) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021302 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines 50 To 499 Hp) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021303 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines 500+ Hp) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021309 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Total: All Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021400 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Gas Well Dehydrators) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021401 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Nat Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines <50 Hp w/ NSCR) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021402 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Nat Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines 50 To 499 Hp w/ NSCR) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021403 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Nat Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines 500+ Hp w/ NSCR) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021409 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Total: All Nat Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines w/ NSCR) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021450 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Wellhead) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021500 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Gas Well Completion - Flaring and Venting) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021501 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: Connectors) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021502 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: Flanges) AEO – natural gas production 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 20 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2310021503 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: Open Ended Lines) AEO – natural gas production 2310021504 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: Pumps) AEO – natural gas production 2310021505 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: Valves) AEO – natural gas production 2310021506 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: Other) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021509 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives: All Processes) AEO – natural gas production 

2310021600 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Production (Gas Well Venting) AEO – natural gas production 

2310022000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Natural Gas : Off-Shore: Total: All Processes) AEO – natural gas production 

2310022010 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Production (Storage Tanks: Condensate) AEO – natural gas production 

2310022051 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Production (Turbines: Natural Gas) AEO – natural gas production 

2310022090 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Production (Boilers/Heaters: Natural Gas) AEO – natural gas production 

2310022105 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Production (Diesel Engines) AEO – natural gas production 

2310022300 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Production (Compressor Engines: 4Cycle Rich) AEO – natural gas production 

2310022420 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Production (Dehydrator) AEO – natural gas production 

2310022501 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives, Connectors: Gas Streams) AEO – natural gas production 

2310022502 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives, Flanges: Gas Streams) AEO – natural gas production 

2310022505 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives, Valves: Gas) AEO – natural gas production 

2310022506 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Production (Fugitives, Other: Gas) AEO – natural gas production 

2310023000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Natural Gas (Cbm Gas Well - Dewatering Pump Engines) AEO – natural gas production 

2310030000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Natural Gas Liquids (Total: All Processes) AEO – natural gas production 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 21 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2310030210 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Natural Gas Liquids (Gas Well Tanks - Flashing & Standing/Working/Breathing, Uncontrolled) AEO – natural gas production 2310030220 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Natural Gas Liquids (Gas Well Tanks - Flashing & Standing/Working/Breathing, Controlled) AEO – natural gas production 2310031000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Natural Gas Liquids (On-Shore: Total: All Processes) AEO – natural gas production 

2310032000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Natural Gas Liquids (Off-Shore: Total: All Processes) AEO – natural gas production 

2310111000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Exploration (All Processes) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310111100 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Exploration (Mud Degassing) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310111401 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Pneumatic Pumps) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310111700 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Completion: All Processes) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310111701 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Completion: Flaring) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310111702 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Completion: Venting) 

AEO – onshore crude oil production 

2310112000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Exploration (All Processes) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310112100 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Exploration (Mud Degassing Activities) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310112401 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Pneumatic Pumps) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310112700 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Completion: All Processes) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310112701 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Completion: Flaring) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310112702 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Oil Exploration (Oil Well Completion: Venting) 

AEO – offshore crude oil production 

2310121000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Exploration (All Processes) AEO – natural gas production 

2310121100 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Exploration (Mud Degassing) AEO – natural gas production 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 22 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2310121401 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Pneumatic Pumps) AEO – natural gas production 2310121700 Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Completion: All Processes) AEO – natural gas production 2310121701 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Completion: Flaring) AEO – natural gas production 

2310121702 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - On-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Completion: Venting) AEO – natural gas production 

2310122000 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Exploration (All Processes) AEO – natural gas production 

2310122100 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Exploration (Mud Degassing) AEO – natural gas production 

2310122401 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Pneumatic Pumps) AEO – natural gas production 

2310122700 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Completion: All 

Processes) AEO – natural gas production 

2310122701 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Completion: Flaring) AEO – natural gas production 

2310122702 

Industrial Processes - Oil and Gas Exploration and Production - Off-Shore Gas Exploration (Gas Well Completion: Venting) AEO – natural gas production 

2311010000 General Building Construction 

Economy.com output data (126); population (128) 

NAICS 2361, 236Nonresidential Co

2311020000 Heavy Construction 

Economy.com output data (86); population (168) 

NAICS 2379 (OthConstruction) 

2311030000 Road Construction 

Economy.com output data (138); population (116) 

NAICS 2373 (HigConstruction) 

2325000000 Mining & Quarrying - All Processes 

Economy.com output data (1); population (253) 

NAICS 2121, 212Ore Mining; Nonm

2325020000 Mining & Quarrying - Crushed and Broken Stone 

Economy.com output data (69); population (185) 

NAICS 3279 (OthManufacturing) 

2325050000 Mining & Quarrying - Chemical and Fertilizer Materials 

Economy.com output data (86); population (168) 

NAICS 2123 (NonQuarrying) 

2399000000 Industrial Processes - Not Elsewhere Classified 

Economy.com output data (85); population (169) 

NAICS 3399 (OthManufacturing) 

2401001000 Architectural Coatings Population 2401005000 Auto Refinishing 

Economy.com output data (124); population (130) 

NAICS 8111 (AutMaintenance) 

2401008000 Traffic Markings 

Economy.com output data (138); population (116) 

NAICS 2373 (HigConstruction) 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 23 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2401015000 Industrial Surface Coating - Factory Finished Wood Economy.com output data (27); population (227) NAICS 3211, 321

Preservation; VenWood Product MaManf.) 

2401020000 Industrial Surface Coating - Wood Furniture 

Economy.com output data (22); population (232) 

NAICS 3371, 337Engineered Wood [including FixtureRelated Product M

2401025000 Industrial Surface Coating - Metal Furniture 

Economy.com output data (27); population (227) 

NAICS 3211, 321Engineered Wood [including FixtureRelated Product M

2401030000 Industrial Surface Coating – Paper 

Economy.com output data (53); population (201) 

NAICS 3221, 322Mills; Converted P

2401040000 Industrial Surface Coating - Metal Cans 

Economy.com output data (83); population (171) 

NAICS 3329 (OthManufacturing) 

2401045000 Industrial Surface Coating - Metal Coils 

Economy.com output data (83); population (171) 

NAICS 3329 (OthManufacturing) 

2401050000 Industrial Surface Coating - Misc. Finished Metals 

Economy.com output data (3); population (251) 

NAICS 3312, 332from Purchased SManf.) 

2401055000 Industrial Surface Coating - Machinery & Equipment 

Economy.com output data (17); population (237) NAICS 333x (Ma

2401060000 Industrial Surface Coating - Large Appliances 

Economy.com output data (29); population (225) 

NAICS 3352 (HouManufacturing) 

2401065000 Industrial Surface Coating - Electronic & Other Electrical 

Economy.com output data (7); population (247) 

NAICS 334x, 335Product Manf.; Eland Component M

2401070000 Industrial Surface Coating - Motor Vehicles 

Economy.com output data (27); population (227) 

NAICS 3361, 336Motor Vehicle BoVehicle Parts Man

2401075000 Industrial Surface Coating – Aircraft 

Economy.com output data (140); population (114) 

NAICS 3364 (AerManufacturing) 

2401080000 Industrial Surface Coating – Marine 

Economy.com output data (20); population (234) NAICS 3366 (Shi

2401085000 Industrial Surface Coating – Railroad 

Economy.com output data (34); population (220) 

NAICS 3365 (RaiManufacturing) 

2401090000 Industrial Surface Coating - Misc. Manufacturing 

Economy.com output data (65); population (189) 

NAICS 3339, 339Machinery Manf; 

2401100000 Industrial Surface Coating - Industrial Maintenance 

Economy.com output data (0); population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 24 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2401200000 Industrial Surface Coating - Special Purpose Economy.com output data (0); population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All 2401990000 All Surface Coating Categories Economy.com output data (0); population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All 2415000000 Degreasing (All Processes) - All Industries Economy.com output data (0); population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All 2415100000 Degreasing (Open Top) - All Industries 

Economy.com output data (0); population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All 

2415105000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Furniture & Fixtures 

Economy.com output data (22); population (232) 

NAICS 3371, 337Engineered Wood [including FixtureRelated Product M

2415110000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Primary Metal Ind. 

Economy.com output data (18); population (236) NAICS 331x (Prim

2415120000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Fabricated Metal 

Economy.com output data (7); population (247) 

NAICS 332x (FabManufacturing) 

2415125000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Industrial Machinery & Equipment 

Economy.com output data (17); population (237) NAICS 333x (Ma

2415130000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Electronic & Other Electric 

Economy.com output data (7); population (247) 

NAICS 334x, 335Product Manf.; Eland Component M

2415135000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Transportation Equipment 

Economy.com output data (5); population (249) 

NAICS 336x (TraManufacturing) 

2415140000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Instruments & Related Products 

Economy.com output data (42); population (212) 

NAICS 3333, 334Service Industry MMeasuring, ElectrInstruments ManfSupplies Manf.) 

2415145000 Degreasing (Open Top) - Misc. Manufacturing 

Economy.com output data (65); population (189) 

NAICS 3339, 339Machinery Manf; 

2415300000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - All Industries 

Economy.com output data (0); population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All 

2415305000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Furniture & Fixtures 

Economy.com output data (22); population (232) 

NAICS 3371, 337Engineered Wood [including FixtureRelated Product M

2415310000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Primary Metal Ind. 

Economy.com output data (18); population (236) NAICS 331x (Prim

2415320000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Fabricated Metal 

Economy.com output data (7); population (247) 

NAICS 332x (FabManufacturing) 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 25 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2415325000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Industrial Machinery & Equipment Economy.com output data (17); population (237) NAICS 333x (Ma2415330000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Electronic & Other Electric Economy.com output data (7); population (247) NAICS 334x, 335

Product Manf.; Eland Component M

2415335000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Transportation Equipment 

Economy.com output data (5); population (249) 

NAICS 336x (TraManufacturing) 

2415340000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Instruments & Related Products 

Economy.com output data (42); population (212) 

NAICS 3333, 334Service Industry MMeasuring, ElectrInstruments ManfSupplies Manf.) 

2415345000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Misc. Manufacturing 

Economy.com output data (65); population (189) 

NAICS 3339, 339Machinery Manf; 

2415355000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Automotive Dealers 

Economy.com output data (77); population (177) 

NAICS 4411, 441Motor Vehicle De

2415360000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Auto Repair Services 

Economy.com output data (124); population (130) 

NAICS 8111 (AutMaintenance) 

2415365000 Degreasing (Cold Cleaning) - Misc. Repair Services 

Economy.com output data (28); population (226) 

NAICS 8112, 811Precision EquipmCommercial and IEquipment [excepRepair and MainteGoods Repair and 

2420000000 Dry Cleaning - All Processes (All Solvent Types) 

Economy.com output data (60); population (194) NAICS 8123 (Dry

2420010055 Dry Cleaning - Commercial/Industrial (Perchloroethylene) 

Economy.com output data (60); population (194) NAICS 8123 (Dry

2420010370 Dry Cleaning - Commercial/Industrial (Special Naphthas) 

Economy.com output data (60); population (194) NAICS 8123 (Dry

2420020055 Dry Cleaning - Coin Operated (Perchloroethylene) 

Economy.com output data (60); population (194) NAICS 8123 (Dry

2425000000 Graphic Arts 

Economy.com output data (83); population (171) 

NAICS 3231 (PrinActivities) 

2430000000 Rubber/Plastics 

Economy.com output data (44); population (210) 

NAICS 3261, 326Rubber Product M

2440020000 Miscellaneous Industrial Adhesive Application 

Economy.com output data (0); population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All 

2460100000 Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (Personal Care Products) Population 2460200000 Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (Household Products) Population 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 26 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2460400000 Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (Automotive Aftermarket Products) Population 2460500000 Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (Coatings And Related Products) Population 2460520000 Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (Coatings Related Products) Population 2460600000 Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (Adhesives and Sealants) Population 2460800000 

Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (FIFRA Related Products) Population 

2460900000 Consumer/Commercial Solvent Use (Miscellaneous Products) Population 2461021000 Asphalt Application - Cutback Asphalt 

Economy.com output data (138); population (116) 

NAICS 2373 (HigConstruction) 

2461022000 Asphalt Application - Emulsified Asphalt 

Economy.com output data (138); population (116) 

NAICS 2373 (HigConstruction) 

2461023000 Asphalt Application - Asphalt Roofing 

Economy.com output data (142); population (112) 

NAICS 2381 (FouExterior Contracto

2461800000 Commercial Solvent Use - Pesticides (All) Population 2461850000 Commercial Solvent Use - Pesticides (Herbicides) Population 2465000000 Consumer Solvent Use (Total) Population 2465100000 Consumer Solvent Use (Personal Care Products) Population 2501000090 

Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) - Distillate Oil AEO regional data 

2501000120 

Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) - Gasoline AEO regional data 

2501000150 

Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) – Jet Naphtha AEO regional data 

2501000180 

Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) - Kerosene AEO regional data 

2501010030 

Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) – Crude Oil AEO regional data 

2501010060 

Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) - Residual Oil AEO regional data 

2501010120 

Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) - Gasoline AEO regional data 

2501010180 

Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Breathing) - Kerosene AEO regional data 

2501011011 Portable Fuel Containers – Permeation – Residential Population 2501011012 

Portable Fuel Containers – Evaporation (Diurnal) – Residential Population 

2501011013 Portable Fuel Containers – Spillage – Transport – Residential Population 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 27 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2501011014 Portable Fuel Containers – Refilling – Vapor Displacement – Residential Population 2501011015 Portable Fuel Containers – Refilling – Spillage – Residential Population 2501012011 Portable Fuel Containers – Permeation – Commercial Population 2501012012 Portable Fuel Containers – Evaporation (Diurnal) – Commercial Population 2501012013 

Portable Fuel Containers – Spillage – Transport – Commercial Population 

2501012014 

Portable Fuel Containers – Refilling – Vapor Displacement – 

Commercial Population 

2501012015 Portable Fuel Containers – Refilling – Spillage – Commercial Population 2501060051 Gasoline Service Stations - Stage 1 (Submerged Filling) AEO regional data 2501060053 

Gasoline Service Stations - Stage 1 (Balanced Submerged 

Filling) AEO regional data 

2501060100 Gasoline Service Stations - Stage 2 (Total) AEO regional data 2501060101 

Gasoline Service Stations - Stage 2 (Displacement Loss/Uncontrolled) AEO regional data 

2501060102 

Gasoline Service Stations - Stage 2 (Displacement Loss/Controlled) AEO regional data 

2501060103 Gasoline Service Stations - Stage 2 (Spillage) AEO regional data 2501060201 

Gasoline Service Stations - Underground Tank Breathing and Emptying AEO regional data 

2501080050 

Petroleum Product Storage and Transport - Aviation Gasoline - Stage 1 AEO regional data 

2501080100 

Petroleum Product Storage and Transport - Aviation Gasoline - Stage 2 AEO regional data 

2501995120 

Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Working Loss) - Gasoline AEO regional data 

2505020000 

Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Marine Vessel Transport) - All Products AEO regional data 

2505030120 

Petroleum Product Storage and Transport (Truck Transport) - Gasoline AEO regional data 

2601010000 On-Site Incineration – Industrial 

Economy.com output data (0); population (254) NAICS 3xxx (All 

2601020000 On-Site Incineration - Commercial/Institutional Population 2610000100 Open Burning (Yard Waste) - Leaf Population 2610000400 Open Burning (Yard Waste) – Brush Population 2610000500 Open Burning (Land Clearing Debris Except Logging Debris) 

Economy.com output data (136); population (118) NAICS 2361 (Res

2610030000 Open Burning (Household Waste) Population 2620000000 Landfills – All Population 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 28 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2620030000 Landfills – Municipal Population 2630000000 Wastewater Treatment – All Population 2630020000 Wastewater Treatment - Public Owned Population 2660000000 Leaking Underground Storage Tanks Economy.com output data (67); population (187) NAICS 5629 (Rem

Management Serv

2801000000 Agriculture Production (Total) Constant 2801000003 Agriculture Tilling Constant 2801500000 Agriculture - Field Burning (All Crops) Constant 2801700001 Fertilizer Application - Anhydrous Ammonia Constant 2801700002 Fertilizer Application - Aqua Ammonia Constant 2801700003 Fertilizer Application - Nitrogen Solutions Constant 2801700004 Fertilizer Application – Urea Constant 2801700005 Fertilizer Application - Ammonium Nitrate Constant 2801700006 Fertilizer Application - Ammonium Sulfate Constant 2801700007 Fertilizer Application - Ammonium Thiosulfate Constant 2801700008 Fertilizer Application - Other Straight Nitrogen Constant 2801700009 Fertilizer Application - Ammonium Phosphates Constant 2801700010 Fertilizer Application - N-P-K Constant 2801700011 Fertilizer Application - Calcium Ammonium Nitrate Constant 2801700012 Fertilizer Application - Potassium Nitrate Constant 2801700013 Fertilizer Application - Diammonium Phosphate Constant 2801700014 Fertilizer Application - Monoammonium Phosphate Constant 2801700015 Fertilizer Application - Liquid Ammonium Polyphosphate Constant 2801700099 Fertilizer Application - Miscellaneous Fertilizers Constant 2805001000 Beef Cattle Feedlots – Total Constant 2805001100 Beef Cattle Feedlots – Confinement Constant 2805001200 Beef Cattle Feedlots - Manure Handling/Storage Constant 2805001300 Beef Cattle Feedlots - Land Application of Manure Constant 2805002000 Beef Cattle Production – Composite Constant 2805003100 Beef Cattle Pasture/Range – Confinement Constant 2805007100 

Poultry Production - Layers with Dry Manure Management Confinement Constant 

2805007300 Poultry Production - Land Application of Manure Constant 2805008100 Poultry Production - Layers with Wet Manure Confinement Constant 2805008200 Poultry Production - Wet Manure Handling and Storage Constant 2805008300 Poultry Production - Land Application of Wet Manure Constant 2805009100 Poultry – Confinement Constant 2805009200 Poultry - Manure Handling/Storage Constant 2805009300 Poultry - Land Application of Manure Constant 2805010100 Turkey Production – Confinement Constant 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 29 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2805010200 Turkey Production - Manure Handling/Storage Constant 2805010300 Turkey Production - Land Application of Manure Constant 2805018000 Dairy Cattle - Composite:Nec Constant 2805019100 Dairy Cattle - Flush Dairy (Confinement) Constant 2805019200 Dairy Cattle - Flush Dairy (Manure Handling/Storage) Constant 2805019300 Dairy Cattle - Flush Dairy (Land Application of Manure) Constant 2805021100 Dairy Cattle - Scrape Dairy (Confinement) Constant 2805021200 Dairy Cattle - Scrape Dairy (Manure Handling/Storage) Constant 2805021300 Dairy Cattle - Scrape Dairy (Land Application of Manure) Constant 2805022100 Dairy Cattle - Deep Pit Dairy (Confinement) Constant 2805022200 Dairy Cattle - Deep Pit Dairy (Manure Handling/Storage) Constant 2805022300 Dairy Cattle - Deep Pit Dairy (Land Application of Manure) Constant 2805023100 Dairy Cattle - Drylot/Pasture Dairy (Confinement) Constant 2805023200 

Dairy Cattle - Drylot/Pasture Dairy (Manure Handling/Storage) Constant 

2805023300 

Dairy Cattle - Drylot/Pasture Dairy (Land Application of Manure) Constant 

2805025000 Hogs & Pigs – Composite Constant 2805030000 Poultry & Chickens – Composite Constant 2805030007 Poultry & Chickens – Ducks Constant 2805030008 Poultry & Chickens – Geese Constant 2805035000 Horses & Ponies – Composite Constant 2805039100 Swine Production - Lagoons (Confinement) Constant 2805039200 Swine Production - Lagoons (Manure Handling & Storage) Constant 2805039300 Swine Production - Lagoons (Land Application of Manure) Constant 2805040000 Sheep & Lambs – Composite Constant 2805045000 Goats - Waste Emissions Constant 2805047100 

Swine Production - Deep-Pit House (Land Application of Manure - Confinement) Constant 

2805047300 

Swine Production - Deep-Pit House (Land Application of Manure) Constant 

2805053100 

Swine Production - Out Door Operations (Land Application of Manure) Constant 

2806010000 Domestic Animals - Cats Population 2806015000 Domestic Animals - Dogs Population 2807025000 Wild Animals - Elk Constant 2807030000 Wild Animals - Deer Constant 2810001000 Other Combustion - Forest Wildfires Constant 2810005000 

Other Combustion - Managed Burning Slash (Logging Debris) Constant 
Table 4-1. Continued 

TCEQ, Projection Factors 30 

Final, August 16, 2010 SCC SCC Description Projection Dataa Project

2810015000 Other Combustion - Prescribed Burning For Forest Management Constant 2810020000 Other Combustion - Prescribed Burning Of Rangeland Constant 2810030000 Other Combustion - Structure Fires Population 2810040000 Other Combustion - Aircraft/Rocket Engine Firing And Testing Constant 2810050000 Other Combustion - Motor Vehicle Fires Population 2830000000 All Catastrophic/Accidental Releases Constant a When projection data are indicated as both Economy.com output data and population data, the parenthetical number indicates the num

particular projection data were applied to. 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

31

Economy.com output data were obtained for all area source categories indicated in Table 4-1. 

These include individual 4-digit NAICS (e.g., 3121, etc.) and multiple aggregated NAICS (e.g., 

3xxx, etc.). For the multiple aggregated NAICS, output data for all the individual NAICS within the 

group were aggregated together for each county, by year, before calculating the growth factors. 

As discussed in Section 3.3 for point sources, any NAICS/county combinations with 2005 

output values less than $1,000,000 used county-level population growth instead of Economy.com 

output data. The basis for this decision was that one particular area of concern associated with the 

use of Economy.com output data was that for certain NAICS/county combinations the derived 

growth factors may be overly large. In some cases, this may, in fact, represent an industry sector 

that is growing rapidly. However, in other instances, these growth factors may be the result of 

insignificant county-level outputs. County-level output estimates are based upon detailed countylevel employment estimates and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) state- and metropolitan 

area-level output data. For the larger counties, actual output data exist; however, for the smaller 

counties, Economy.com gap-fills the output estimates by allocating the state-level output (minus 

actual output data for the large counties) based upon employment estimates. For some 

NAICS/county combinations, the output estimates are as small as 1 x 10-8 million dollars (i.e., 1 

cent). These small output estimates are not realistic and are simply an artifact of Economy.com’s 

gap-filling process. After consulting with TCEQ staff, it was decided that for any NAICS/county 

combinations with 2005 output values less than $1,000,000 that growth factors would be based on 

county-level population growth instead of output data from Economy.com. The substitution of 

Economy.com output data with population is shown in Table 4-1 by indicating the number of 

counties for which Economy.com output data were maintained and the number of counties for 

which population data were substituted. 

4.3 Expanded Use of Annual Energy Outlook Data 

The EGAS model utilized AEO consumption data for the industrial, 

commercial/institutional, and residential fuel combustion area source categories (i.e., SCC 

2102xxxxxx, 2103xxxxxx, and 2104xxxxxx). These assignments were maintained in Table 4-1. 

As part of this project, use of the AEO data were expanded to additional area source categories. In 

particular, total fuel-specific (e.g., gasoline, distillate, residual, kerosene) consumption data were 

applied to the petroleum storage and transport categories (i.e., SCC 2501xxxxxx and 2505xxxxxx). 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

32

In addition, AEO oil and gas production data were applied to oil and gas production categories (i.e., 

SCC 2310xxxxxx). The consumption data were not available at the state-level; instead, 

consumption data for the West South Central census division (i.e., Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, 

and Texas). Given the relative size of Texas consumption activity compared to the other three 

states the application of the West South Central census division to Texas is a reasonable 

assumption. Likewise, the AEO oil and gas production data were not available at the state-level 

either. Instead, production data were reported at the oil and gas supply model regions level. The 

two relevant oil and gas supply model regions that included Texas were the Gulf Coast and 

Southwest regions. 

4.4 Use of Texas-Specific Population Projections 

The most recent Texas-specific population projections were obtained from the Texas State 

Demographer at the Texas State Data Center (TSDC, 2008). Compared to other types of activity 

data used for area source projections, population projections are considered to typically be more 

accurate. This accuracy is due to birth and death rates being fairly well understood and quantified. 

In addition, birth and death rates usually have considerable inertia and do not change significantly 

from year to year. The uncertainty of population projections is primarily due to immigration and 

sudden population influxes (e.g., the evacuation of New Orleans in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, 

etc.). As shown in Figure 4-1, the county-level population projection factors from 2005 to 2035 

ranged from a minimum of 0.7812 for Llano County to 1.7110 for Webb County. The population 

projection factor for Loving County was even lower (i.e., 0.7463), but with a starting 2005 

population of 67, it was considered to be an outlier. A total of 43 counties had decreasing 

population between 2005 and 2035; however, most of these counties were comparatively small with 

the largest county having a 2005 population of 42,725 (i.e., Kerr County). 

The statewide population growth projection factor from 2005 to 2035 was 1.1809, while the 

growth projection factor for the 10 most populous counties (i.e., Bexar, Collin, Dallas, Denton, El 

Paso, Fort Bend, Harris, Hidalgo, Tarrant, and Travis counties) was slightly higher at 1.2025. 

These 10 counties comprised over 57 percent of the state population in 2005. The individual 

county-level population projections for these 10 most populous counties are shown in Figure 4-2. 

As shown in Figure 4-2, the population projections for 8 of these 10 counties (i.e., Bexar, Collin, 

Dallas, Denton, Fort Bend, Harris, Tarrant, and Travis counties) track fairly closely with state and 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

33

aggregated 10 county projections with 2035 projection factors ranging from 1.1392 to 1.1922. The 

two counties that significantly vary from the state and aggregated 10 county projections are Hidalgo 

and El Paso counties with 2035 projection factors of 1.5579 and 1.3474, respectively. 

4.5 Use of Flat/No Growth Factors 

For a few source categories, the EGAS model assigned flat or no growth factors (i.e., 

1.0000). These source categories included a number of categories that either were not expected to 

vary significantly from year to year or appropriate activity data could not be reasonably assigned. 

Some examples included forest wildfires, catastrophic/accidental releases, and ammonia emissions 

from wild animals. For this effort, the flat factor was also assigned to all of the agricultural source 

categories (SCC 2801xxxxxx) and livestock ammonia categories (SCC 2805xxxxxx). The 

agricultural source categories were previously assigned value added data from farms, but since total 

agricultural acreage does not significantly change over time it was decided that a flat factor would 

be more appropriate. Various types of livestock vary from year to year, but these variations are 

often cyclical in nature and are in response to market forces. As a result, a flat factor was assigned 

to the livestock ammonia categories. 

Figure 4-1. Range of Population Growth Factors for Texas 

0.6000

0.8000

1.0000

1.2000

1.4000

1.6000

1.8000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Growth Factor

Maxiumum Growth (Webb) Minimum Growth (Llano) Top 10 Texas
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

34

Figure 4-2. Population Growth Factors for 10 Most Populous Counties in Texas 

Population Growth Factors for 10 Largest Texas Counties

1.0000

1.0500

1.1000

1.1500

1.2000

1.2500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Growth Factor

Texas Top 10 Bexar Dallas Denton El Paso Fort Bend

Harris Hidalgo Tarrant Travis

5.0 DATA ANALYSIS 

After developing preliminary growth factors for Texas point and area sources as described 

in Sections 3.0 and 4.0, ERG conducted a data analysis by applying the compiled growth factors to 

the point source and area source 2005 base year emissions inventories (provided by TCEQ and used 

“as is” with no changes) and developing future year emissions inventories for 2008, 2017, 2020, 

2026, and 2035. This analysis was conducted under Task 3 (Data Analysis) of the project scope. 

ERG analyzed the future emissions inventories by comparing and contrasting differences between 

the 2005 base year inventory and the five future year inventories. The data analysis included 

comparisons at the following levels of disaggregation: county, attainment status area (i.e., 

including nonattainment, near nonattainment, Early Action Compact [EAC], and attainment), and 

state. The attainment status areas are as follows: 

• Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Ozone Nonattainment Area; 

• Dallas-Fort Worth Ozone Nonattainment Area; 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

35

• Beaumont/Port Arthur Ozone Nonattainment Area; 

• El Paso Nonattainment Area; 

• Austin Ozone EAC Area; 

• Northeast Texas EAC Area; 

• San Antonio EAC Area; 

• Corpus Christi Near Nonattainment Area; 

• Victoria Near Nonattainment Area; and 

• All attainment counties. 

Based on conversation with TCEQ project staff, it was decided to limit further analysis to 

NOx, VOC, and carbon monoxide (CO) only. The analysis identified SCCs and Standard Industrial 

Classification (SIC) codes that had the greatest and least variation of emissions estimates with the 

degree of variation indicated in units of tons per day and percent change. ERG compiled the 

differences between the 2005 base year emissions inventory and the five future year inventories in a 

spreadsheet and submitted these to TCEQ for their review. Figures 5-1 and 5-2 show the top five 

state-level VOC source categories (based on 2005 emissions) for point and area sources along with 

their future year emissions. Additional analysis was conducted for oil and gas source category 

emissions within the point and area source types. Figures 5-3 and 5-4 present the state-level base 

year and future year VOC emissions for point source and area source oil and gas categories, 

respectively. Figures 5-5 through 5-12 present a similar set of charts for CO and NOx emissions. 

Based upon TCEQ staff’s review of the analysis results, several revisions were made to the 

projection factors which are listed below: 

• For NAICS 3241 (Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing) (i.e., including 

refineries) point sources, replacement of Economy.com output data with AEO domestic 

refining capacity data (described in detail in Section 3.1). 

• For NAICS 4861 (Pipeline Transportation of Crude Oil), 4862 (Pipeline Transportation 

of Natural Gas), and 4869 (Other Pipeline Transportation) point sources, use of 

alternative data when Economy.com output data were unavailable (i.e., AEO crude oil 

and natural gas production for NAICS 4861 and 4862 and use of Economy.com output 

data for NAICS 3251 [Basic Chemical Manufacturing] as a surrogate for NAICS 4869) 

(described in detail in Section 3.1). 

• For both point and area sources, replacement of Economy.com output data with countylevel population data for those NAICS sector/county combinations with a 2005 output 

value less than $1,000,000 (described in detail in Section 3.3). 

Since these changes were made after TCEQ staff’s review of the analysis results, these 

changes are not reflected in Figures 5-1 through 5-12. 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

36

Figure 5-1. Top Five State-Level Point Source VOC Categories 

-

5,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

20,000.0

25,000.0

30,000.0

35,000.0

40,000.0

45,000.0

50,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035

Tons

2911

2869

1311

1321

4226

2911 – Petroleum Refining; 2869 – Industrial Organic Chemicals, NEC; 1311 – Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas; 1321 – Natural Gas Liquids; and 

4226 – Special Warehousing & Storage, NEC. Note: SIC 4226 includes many “terminals for hire” and a large portion of the reported VOC 

emissions are from the landing of floating roof tanks, which have subsequently been controlled. 

Figure 5-2. Top Five State-Level Area Source VOC Categories 

-

200,000.0

400,000.0

600,000.0

800,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,200,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035

Tons

2310001000

2401001000

2501060101

2501060051

2460100000

2310001000 – Onshore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production; 2401001000 – Architectural Coatings; 2501060101 – Petroleum Products (Gasoline 

Service Stations – Stage 2 Displacement Loss, Uncontrolled); 2501060051 – Petroleum Products (Gasoline Service Stations – Stage 1 Submerged 

Filling); and 2460100000 – Consumer/Commercial (All Personal Care Products). 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

37

Figure 5-3. State-Level Oil & Gas Point Source VOC Categories 

-

2,000.0

4,000.0

6,000.0

8,000.0

10,000.0

12,000.0

14,000.0

16,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035

Tons

1311

1321

1382

1311 - Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas; 1321 - Natural Gas Liquids; 1382 - Oil and Gas Exploration Services 

Figure 5-4. State-Level Oil & Gas Area Source VOC Categories 

-

200,000.0

400,000.0

600,000.0

800,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,200,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035

Tons

2310001000

2310002000

2310020000

2310001000 – Onshore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (All Processes); 2310002000 – Offshort Oil & Gas Production (All Processes); and 

2310020000 – Natural Gas Exploration and Production (All Processes). Note: VOC emissions from 2310002000 and 2310020000 are below 500 tpy 

and do not show up on the graphic due to the scale. 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

38

Figure 5-5. Top Five State-Level Point Source CO Categories 

-

50,000.0

100,000.0

150,000.0

200,000.0

250,000.0

300,000.0

350,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035

Tons

4911

2895

3334

1321

1311

4911 – Electric Services; 2895 – Carbon Black; 3334 – Primary Aluminum; 1321 – Natural Gas Liquids; and 1311 – Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas. 

Figure 5-6. Top Five State-Level Area Source CO Categories 

-

50,000.0

100,000.0

150,000.0

200,000.0

250,000.0

300,000.0

350,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035

Tons

2810020000

2310001000

2810015000

2610000500

2801500000

2810020000 - Prescribed Burning Of Rangeland; 2310001000 - On Shore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production; 2810015000 - Prescribed Burning 

For Forest Management; 2610000500 – Open Burning - Land Clearing Debris; and 2801500000 - Agriculture Field Burning. 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

39

Figure 5-7. State-Level Oil & Gas Point Source CO Categories 

-

5,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

20,000.0

25,000.0

30,000.0

35,000.0

40,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035

Tons

1311

1321

1382

1311 – Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas; 1321 – Natural Gas Liquids; and 1382 – Oil & Gas Exploration Services. Note: CO emissions from 1382 are 

less than 100 TPY and do not show up on the graphic due to the scale. 

Figure 5-8. State-Level Oil & Gas Area Source CO Categories 

-

50,000.0

100,000.0

150,000.0

200,000.0

250,000.0

300,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035

Tons

2310001000

2310020000

2310001000 - On Shore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production; and 2310020000 - Natural Gas Exploration & Production. 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

40

Figure 5-9. Top Five State-Level Point Source NOx Categories 

-

50,000.0

100,000.0

150,000.0

200,000.0

250,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035

Tons

4911

1321

2869

2911

4922

4911 – Electric Services; 1321 – Natural Gas Liquids; 2869 - Industrial Organic Chemicals, NEC; 2911 – Petroleum Refining; and 4922 – Natural 

Gas Transmission. 

Figure 5-10. Top Five State-Level Area Source NOx Categories 

-

50,000.0

100,000.0

150,000.0

200,000.0

250,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035

Tons

2310001000

2104006000

2103006000

2102004000

2102007000

2310001000 - On Shore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production: All Processes; 2104006000 - Residential Fuel Combustion: Natural Gas; 2103006000 - 

Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion: Natural Gas; 2102004000 - Industrial Fuel Combustion: Distillate Oil: Boilers/IC Eng.; and 2102007000 

- Industrial Fuel Combustion: Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

41

Figure 5-11. State-Level Oil & Gas Point Source NOx Categories 

-

10,000.0

20,000.0

30,000.0

40,000.0

50,000.0

60,000.0

70,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035

1311

1321

1382

1311 – Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas; 1321 – Natural Gas Liquids; and 1382 – Oil & Gas Exploration Services. Note: NOx emissions from 1382 

are less than 100 TPY and do not show up on the graphic due to the scale. 

Figure 5-12. State-Level Oil & Gas Area Source NOx Categories 

-

50,000.0

100,000.0

150,000.0

200,000.0

250,000.0

2005 2008 2017 2020 2026 2035

Tons

2310001000

2310002000

2310020000

2310001000 - On Shore Oil & Gas Exploration & Production; 2310002000 - Off Shore Oil & Gas Production; and 2310020000 - Natural Gas 

Exploration & Production: All Processes. 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

42

6.0 FORMATTED GROWTH FACTORS 

The final step of the projects was the development of the formatted growth factors which 

was conducted under Task 4 (Develop the Formatted Growth Factors) of the project scope. These 

formatted growth factors were submitted to TCEQ along with the final report. ERG provided the 

developed growth factors and associated data in Microsoft Access format for point sources. For 

area sources, ERG provided the developed growth factors and associated data in TexAER loadable 

format as well as in Microsoft Access format, where all fields are complete and all mandatory fields 

have been quality assured. All resulting TexAER loadable files will be entered into TexAER. Any 

errors or discrepancies identified in the TexAER loadable format or loading process will be 

corrected by ERG, or otherwise addressed in consultation with the TCEQ. 

7.0 CAVEATS ASSOCIATED WITH USE OF GROWTH FACTORS 

Although a comprehensive suite of point and area source growth factors were developed 

under this project, there are a number of caveats that should be considered when using these growth 

factors to develop projected emission inventories. These caveats include the following: 

• Growth factors developed under this project do not account for the effects of controls 

(e.g., regulation control, rule effectiveness, rule penetration, fuel switching, technology 

improvements, etc.). As part of the development of future emissions, the effects of 

controls should also be considered. 

• Growth factors developed under this project are based upon the most recent data 

projections available (i.e., spring/summer 2010) from Economy.com, AEO, Texas state 

demographics, etc. In the future, these data projections will be updated based upon 

newly available data and/or revised projections. Therefore, as these growth factors 

become dated, increased care and consideration should be exercised when using them. 

• Growth factors developed under this project were developed relative to a 2005 base 

year. Use of these growth factors for a base year other than 2005 requires the use of 

growth factor ratioing. For instance, the 2013 growth factor for a 2008 base year 

inventory would be the ratio of the 2013 growth factor (2005 base year) divided by the 

2008 growth factor (2005 base year). 

• Growth factors developed under this project were based upon national- or regional-level 

data that were extrapolated down to individual counties. Care should be exercised when 

applying growth factors to point sectors with a small number of facilities. Local 

conditions (e.g., new construction, expansion, closings, etc.) may not be accurately 

represented. Information regarding local “on-the-ground” conditions should take 

precedence over this project’s growth factors. 

• Growth factors developed under this project may not fully represent short-term and/or 

regional disruptions, such as economic recessions, natural disasters, etc. The full effect 

of these events typically takes time to permeate through all data projections. 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

43

8.0 REFERENCES 

Chappell, 2010. Personal communication between Linda Chappell (U.S. EPA) and Marty Wolf 

(ERG). June 11. 

Chappell L.M. and A. Bollman, 2008. Improving EPA Emissions Forecasts. Presentation 

presented by at the 17th Annual Emission Inventory Conference, Portland, Oregon. June 4. Internet 

address: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ conference/ei17/ session6/chappell_pres.pdf 

Davalos, 2010. Personal communication between Barbara Davalos (Federal Reserve Bank of 

Dallas) and Marty Wolf (ERG). June 2. 

Di Natale, 2010. Personal communication between Marisa Di Natale (Economy.com) and Marty 

Wolf (ERG). June 23. 

Economy.com, 2010. Texas county-level historical data and future year projections. Moody’s 

Economy.com, West Chester, Pennsylvania. April 13. 

EIA, 2010. Annual Energy Outlook 2010 With Projections to 2035. DOE/EIA-0383(2010). April. 

Internet address: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html 

EIIP, 1999. Emission Projections. Volume X. Emission Inventory Improvement Program. 

December. 

ERCOT, 2009. 2009 ERCOT Planning Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast. 

Electric Reliability Council of Texas. May 1. 

ERG, 2009a. Minor Point Source Emissions – Phase 2. Final Report. Prepared for the Texas 

Commission on Environmental Quality by Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG), Sacramento, 

California. March 15. 

ERG, 2009b. Minor Point Source Emissions – Phase 3. Final Report. Prepared for the Texas 

Commission on Environmental Quality by Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG), Sacramento, 

California. March 15. 

ERG, 2010. Projection Factors for Point and Area Sources. Work Plan – Final. Prepared for the 

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality by Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG), Sacramento, 

California. March 8. 

FRB, 2010. Texas Industrial Production Index (TIPI). Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas, 

Texas. Internet address: http://www.dallasfed.org/data/tipi.html 

Gage, 2010. Personal communication between Theresa Gage (ERCOT) and Stacy DeGabriele 

(ERG). June 2. 

Gilbertson, 2010. Personal communication between Kimberly Gilbertson (PUCT) and Stacy 

DeGabriele (ERG). June 2. 
TCEQ, Projection Factors 

Final, August 16, 2010 

44

McGee, 2010a. Personal communication between Megan McGee (Economy.com) and Marty Wolf 

(ERG). July 1. 

McGee, 2010b. Personal communication between Megan McGee (Economy.com) and Marty Wolf 

(ERG). March 31. 

Muldoon, 2010. Personal communication between Mark Muldoon (TCEQ) and Marty Wolf 

(ERG). August 9. 

Pechan, 2004. Crosswalk Between Source Classification Code (SCC)s and Emission Activity 

Growth Factors. E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc., Durham, North Carolina. September 9. 

Saving, 2009. “Keys to Economic Growth: What Drives Texas?”, Southwest Economy (First 

Quarter 2009). Jason L. Saving, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Internet address: 

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/swe/2009/ swe0901c.cfm 

TexasAhead, 2009. 2009-2010 State Economic Forecast. Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. 

Internet address: http://www.texasahead.org/economy/forecasts/fcst0910/ 

TSDC, 2008. Population Projections for the State of Texas and Counties. Texas State Data Center, 

Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research, University of Texas at San Antonio, San 

Antonio, Texas. 

TWC, 2010. Texas Industry Projections. Texas Workforce Commission. Internet address: 

http://www.tracer2.com/cgi/dataanalysis/AreaSelection.asp?tableName=Indprj 

U.S. EPA, 2006. Economic Growth and Analysis System: EGAS 5.0 User Manual and 

Documentation, U.S. EPA, OAQPS, January 2006. Internet address: http://www.epa.gov/ 

ttnecas1/egas5.htm