AVIATION 

WORKFORCE

Current and Future 

Availability of

Aviation Engineering 

and Maintenance 

Professionals

Report to Congressional Requesters

February 2014

GAO-14-237

United States Government Accountability Office
United States Government Accountability Office

Highlights of GAO-14-237, a report to 

congressional requesters

February 2014

AVIATION WORKFORCE

Current and Future Availability of Aviation 

Engineering and Maintenance Professionals

Why GAO Did This Study

Maintaining a safe and robust aviation 

system requires qualified aviation 

professionals—including aerospace 

engineers, aircraft mechanics, and 

avionics technicians—to design, 

manufacture, and repair more than 

225,000 aircraft. Aviation stakeholders

have expressed concerns that an 

insufficient supply of personnel could 

develop because of imminent 

retirements and a perception that fewer 

people enter these professions.

GAO was asked to review the supply 

and demand of aviation professionals. 

This report discusses (1) what 

available data and forecasts reveal 

about the need for and potential 

availability of aerospace engineers, 

aircraft mechanics, and avionics 

technicians, and (2) what actions 

industry and the federal government 

are taking to help attract and retain 

these professionals. GAO (1) collected 

and analyzed data from 2000 through 

2012, employment projections from 

2012 through 2022, and literature 

relevant to the aviation professionals’ 

labor markets; (2) reviewed agency 

documents; and (3) interviewed 

agency officials about programs that 

support training. GAO also interviewed

10 aviation industry associations (5 

representing employees and 5 

representing employers) and selected 

a non-generalizable sample of 23 

private sector employers, based on

size and location, to understand any 

actions used to attract their workforce.

GAO is not making recommendations. 

GAO received technical comments on 

this report from Education, DOL, and 

DOT, which were incorporated as 

appropriate. DOD did not have any 

comments on this report. 

What GAO Found

GAO analysis found mixed evidence about a current or possible future shortage

of aviation professionals. Aerospace engineers have experienced a low 

unemployment rate—the most direct measure of a labor shortage—and 

increases in employment suggesting a shortage may exist; however, earnings for 

the occupation have stayed about the same. Data provide less support for a

shortage of aircraft mechanics; while the occupation has had a low 

unemployment rate, both employment and earnings have stayed about the same, 

suggesting that demand for this occupation has not outstripped supply. GAO was

unable to analyze information on avionics technicians because of insufficient 

data. In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment projections indicate 

slower than average or no growth for these three occupations over the next 10

years. Data also suggest the number of people who have received training 

related to these aviation professions is increasing; however, several other 

industries compete for these individuals and not all will pursue aviation careers. 

Examples of Tasks Performed by Selected Aviation Professionals

Industry and government are taking some actions to attract and retain qualified 

individuals in these occupations, but employers GAO interviewed remain 

concerned about future needs. GAO found that most of these employers had 

some challenges hiring personnel with the skills employers were seeking at the 

wage they offered. According to economic literature, employers may take several 

actions in response to a perceived labor shortage—including increasing 

recruiting efforts and raising wages. Employers reported taking a variety of 

actions, but few were raising wages. Several agencies—the Federal Aviation 

Administration (FAA) and the Departments of Defense (DOD), Education, Labor

(DOL), and Veterans Affairs—maintain programs that assist individuals 

interested in aviation careers. For example, in academic year 2011–2012, 

Education disbursed approximately $1.6 billion in federal grants to students 

majoring in related fields. Still, most employers and stakeholders stated that 

maintaining a qualified workforce will be difficult, in part because of a perception 

that fewer people are interested in aviation careers. GAO was unable to verify

these concerns with available data. It could be expected that employers would 

continue to take actions at their disposal—such as adjusting wages or changing 

recruiting and training practices—if a labor shortage were to develop. While such 

actions would be considered typical market responses to a potential shortage, it 

does not mean such actions are costless or might not affect the industry.

View GAO-14-237. For more information, 

contact Gerald L. Dillingham at (202) 512-

2834 or dillinghamg@gao.gov
Page i GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Letter 1 

Background 3

Data and Forecasts Provide Mixed Evidence for a Current or 

Future Workforce Shortage 8

Industry and Government Are Taking Some Actions to Facilitate 

Entry into the Aviation Workforce, but Employers Remain 

Concerned about Future Needs 23

Agency Comments 38

Appendix I Objective, Scope, and Methodology 40

Appendix II GAO Contacts and Staff Acknowledgments 47

Tables

Table 1: Employment Levels and Salary Information for Selected 

Aviation Professions (2012) 6

Table 2: Examples of Agencies’ Roles and Responsibilities 

Regarding Various Aviation Professionals 7

Table 3: Unemployment, Employment, and Earnings for Selected 

Aviation Professions, 2000–2012 10

Table 4: Aircraft-Maintenance-Technician Certification Program 

Enrollments and Completions by Service, 2002–2013 32

Table 5: Number of and Amount of Aid Disbursed to Students 

Majoring in Aviation-Related Fields Receiving Federal Aid, 

2011–2012 35

Table 6: Selected Employers, Location, Type of Interview, and 

Type of Employer 45

Figures

Figure 1: Examples of Tasks Performed by Selected Aviation 

Professionals 4

Figure 2: Number of Aerospace Engineers and Aircraft 

Mechanics, 2000–2012 (in thousands) 14

Figure 3: Completions in Aerospace-Engineering-Related Fields 

by Level of Degree, 2001–2012 15

Contents
Page ii GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Figure 4: Aircraft-Mechanic and Avionics-Maintenance-Related 

Completions, 2001–2012 17

Figure 5: Aviation Maintenance Personnel Annually Separating 

from the Military, Fiscal Years 2001–2012 19

Figure 6: The Number of New A&P Certificates Issued by Training 

Type, 2000–2012 20

Abbreviations

A&P airframe and power plant 

AMT aviation maintenance technician 

AVSED Office of Aviation and Space Education 

BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Boeing Boeing Company 

CIP Classification of Instructional Programs 

CPS Current Population Survey 

DOD Department of Defense 

DOL Department of Labor

DOT Department of Transportation

Education Department of Education 

FAA Federal Aviation Administration 

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization 

IPEDS Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System 

JSAMTCC Joint Services Aviation Maintenance Technician 

Certification Council

Manufacturer original equipment manufacturer 

NASCAR National Association for Stock Car Auto 

Racing, Inc. 

NDAA National Defense Authorization Act 

NPSAS National Postsecondary Student Aid Study 

Repair Station maintenance, repair, and overhaul facility 

STEM science, technology, engineering, and math 

SOC Standard Occupational Classification 

VA Department of Veterans Affairs

WIA The Workforce Investment Act of 1998 

This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the 

United States. The published product may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety 

without further permission from GAO. However, because this work may contain 

copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder may be 

necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately.
Page 1 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

441 G St. N.W.

Washington, DC 20548

February, 28, 2014

Congressional Requesters

The aviation industry is vital to the U.S. economy, generating billions of 

dollars in revenue each year, providing employment, bolstering economic 

growth, and improving the quality of people’s lives. In 2011, air 

transportation contributed almost $70 billion to the U.S. economy and 

accounted for over 450,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Economic 

Analysis. Maintaining a safe and robust aviation system requires a 

sufficient number of qualified aviation professionals to design, 

manufacture, repair, and ensure the airworthiness of more than 225,000 

civilian aircraft. While unforeseen events—including the terrorist attacks 

of September 2001 and the 2008 economic downturn—contributed to a 

downsizing of more than 100,000 jobs in the industry throughout the past 

decade, employment has increased in more recent years, and the 

industry is projecting a growth in demand for air travel and the number of 

aircraft manufactured.

Aviation stakeholders have expressed concern that an insufficient supply 

of certain types of aviation professionals–aerospace engineers, aircraft 

mechanics, and avionics technicians–could develop because of imminent 

retirements and a perception that fewer people are choosing to enter 

certain aviation professions. You asked that we review the current and 

projected future status of the professional aviation workforce. This report

examines (1) what available data and forecasts reveal about the need for 

and potential availability of aerospace engineers, aircraft mechanics, and 

avionics technicians and (2) what actions industry and the federal 

government are taking, if any, to help attract and retain these 

professionals.1

This report looks specifically at three professions in the aviation 

industry—aerospace engineers, aircraft mechanics, and avionics 

technicians—which are involved in the design, manufacture, and repair of 

aircraft and have been the subject of concerns voiced by industry 

stakeholders. To examine current labor market conditions for these 

 

1

GAO recently conducted similar work looking at the supply and demand of commercial 

airline pilots. See GAO, Commercial Aviation: Information on the Supply and Demand of 

Airline Pilots, GAO-14-232 (Washington, D.C: Feb. 28, 2014).
 

Page 2 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

aviation professions, we analyzed data from the Bureau of Labor 

Statistics’ (BLS) Current Population Survey (CPS) for years 2000 through 

2012 on unemployment rates, employment numbers, and median weekly 

earnings (earnings)–referred to as “labor market indicators.” We reviewed 

economic literature that describes how to evaluate labor market 

conditions that might indicate a labor shortage.2 To understand the 

available workforce, we reviewed and analyzed data from the Department 

of Education (Education) on completion rates for degree or certificate 

programs that might prepare individuals to work in these professions from 

academic years 2000-2001 through 2011-2012; from the Department of 

Defense (DOD) on service members working in aviation maintenance 

separating from the military from fiscal year 2000 through 2012; and from 

the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on mechanic certificates issued 

from 2000 through 2012.3

 

2

See, for example, Malcolm Cohen, Labor Shortages as America Approaches the Twentyfirst Century (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, July 1, 1995).

To assess the reliability of Education, DOD, 

and FAA data we reviewed documentation related to these data sources 

from our prior reports, agencies’ websites, and interviewed 

knowledgeable government officials about the quality of the data. We 

determined the data to be sufficiently reliable for our purposes. We 

interviewed officials from seven select engineering, aviation maintenance 

technician (AMT), and avionics schools to understand training 

requirements and changes in demand for graduates. We selected training 

programs that varied based on location, size, and program specialty; our 

findings from these interviews should not be used to make 

generalizations about all training programs, but provide us with insights. 

We also reviewed studies that projected future demand for these 

professions and interviewed representatives of labor unions and industry 

associations. We did not verify the underlying data that these 

organizations collected and used in developing their projections of future 

demand. To understand the extent to which select employers have had 

difficulty attracting or retaining workers and any steps they have taken 

often to mitigate perceived shortages, we interviewed representatives and 

reviewed data from selected private companies that employ these 

professionals–including original equipment manufacturers 

(manufacturers); air carriers; and maintenance, repair, and overhaul 

3

DOD could not provide data on the number of service members separating from all

branches of the military for fiscal year 2000. To allow for comparisons across all years, we 

only reported data since fiscal year 2001. 
 

Page 3 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

facilities (repair stations). We selected 23 employers that ranged in size, 

geographic location, and type of work performed. Our findings from these 

interviews should not be used to make generalizations about all 

employers of these professionals, but provided us with insights. We also 

met with and reviewed documents from government officials, various 

industry groups that represent these professionals, and experts in labor 

economics to identify any actions taken or analyses that have been 

performed concerning these issues. See appendix I for more information 

about our scope and methodology and a listing of the employers we 

interviewed.

We conducted this performance audit from February 2013 through 

February 2014 in accordance with generally accepted government 

auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the 

audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable 

basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We 

believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our 

findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.

As noted, various aviation professionals are involved in the design, 

maintenance, and repair of aircraft and aircraft components (see fig. 1). Background
 

Page 4 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Figure 1: Examples of Tasks Performed by Selected Aviation Professionals

These professionals are commonly employed by commercial air carriers, 

corporate flight departments, repair stations, or manufacturers of aircraft 

or aircraft components.

• Aerospace engineers working in aviation design aircraft and 

components, and test prototypes to make sure that they function 

according to design.4

 

4

In addition to aerospace engineers, mechanical and electrical engineers, among others, 

are employed by the aviation industry.

The vast majority of aerospace engineers have 

at least a bachelor’s degree, according to BLS’s Occupational Outlook 

Handbook.
 

Page 5 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

• Aircraft mechanics inspect, service, and repair aircraft bodies 

(airframe) and engines (power plant). Aircraft mechanics can earn a 

mechanic certificate from FAA with either an airframe (A) rating, 

power plant (P) rating, or combined airframe and power plant (A&P) 

ratings, and are referred to as certificated mechanics. According to 

FAA data, almost all certificated mechanics (92 percent) hold A&P 

ratings. Applicants for a mechanic certificate must pass written and 

oral exams and demonstrate competence through a practical test. 

Certification is not necessary to work as an aircraft mechanic; 

however, without it, a mechanic cannot approve an aircraft for return 

to service and must be supervised by a certificated mechanic. 

Certificated mechanics that hold A&P ratings generally earn a higher 

wage and are more desirable to employers than mechanics who are 

not certificated, according to BLS.

For an applicant to be authorized to take the mechanics examination 

for the combined A&P ratings, the applicant must either (1) complete 

an FAA-certificated AMT school; demonstrate and document relevant 

A&P work experience gained through on-the-job training, or (2) 

demonstrate and document work experience or some combination of 

work experience and education gained through the military working 

with airframes and engines.5 Mechanics trained at an FAA-approved 

AMT school complete, at a minimum, 1900 curriculum hours of 

training: 750 curriculum hours in airframe subjects, 750 curriculum 

hours in power plant subjects, and 400 curriculum hours in general 

education subjects. Applicants seeking to take the mechanics 

examination for A&P ratings based on qualifying on-the-job training 

must provide documentary evidence of 30 months of practical 

experience concurrently performing the duties appropriate to the A&P 

ratings.6

• Avionics technicians test and troubleshoot aircraft instruments and 

components, install electronic components, and assemble switches or 

electrical controls. Avionics technicians receive training either through 

 

5

Military applicants may have supplemented work experience with training through the 

Joint Services Aviation Maintenance Technician Certification (JSAMTCC) program. 

Military applicants who have not completed the JSAMTCC program must be able to 

demonstrate experience in 50 percent of curriculum subject areas for the ratings sought. 

The JSAMTCC program is discussed in additional detail later in this report.

6

In addition to education and training requirements, individuals must be at least 18 years 

of age and be able to read, write, speak, and understand English to be eligible for 

certification.
 

Page 6 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

schooling, on the job, or in the military. Though some avionics 

technicians may hold a mechanics certificate, there is no FAA exam 

or certification specific to avionics technicians. However, some 

technicians seek certification from the Federal Communications 

Commission in the form of, for example, a General Radiotelephone 

Operator License.

Some avionics technicians may hold an A&P certificate or an FAAissued repair-person certificate.7 A repair-person certificate allows 

individuals to perform specific tasks at an FAA-certificated repair 

station, commercial operator, or air carrier that is authorized to 

perform those tasks.8

Table 1 shows the employment levels, wages, and the largest type of 

employer for the aviation professions discussed in this report, as reported 

by BLS.

Eligibility for a repair-person certificate requires 

employment by and recommendation from the FAA-approved 

employer. If an individual who holds a repair-person certificate leaves 

employment at that entity, he or she does not retain that certification.

Table 1: Employment Levels and Salary Information for Selected Aviation 

Professions (2012)

Occupation Total employment

Average hourly 

wage rate

Largest employer 

type

Aerospace engineer 80,420 $50.39 Manufacturing

Aircraft mechanic 119,160 $26.78 Air transportation 

support services

Avionics technician

a

16,810 $26.65 Manufacturing

Source: BLS’s Occupational Employment Statistics

a

Air transportation support services include airport operation, servicing, repairing (except factory 

conversion and overhaul of aircraft), maintaining, and storing aircraft.

No single federal agency is tasked with developing the aviation workforce, 

but FAA is responsible for a variety of tasks related to developing and 

 

7

Repair-person certificates may be issued for a variety of tasks including, among others, 

welding and painting.

8

Unlike an A&P certificate that is issued to an individual, a repair-person certificate is 

issued to a person through an FAA-approved repair station and, as a result, is only valid 

while that person is performing the specific task at the issuing station.
 

Page 7 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

maintaining a qualified workforce. For example, FAA sets the minimum 

requirements for the academic curriculum and certifies and oversees 

AMT schools across the country.9 With regard to certification of individual 

mechanics, FAA developed and administers the written A&P mechanic 

examination; certifies instructors (known as designated mechanic 

examiners) to administer the oral and practical tests to candidates; 

oversees the examiners; and issues A&P certificates to mechanics who 

successfully pass the examination. FAA also certifies and oversees repair 

stations within and outside of the United States and oversees 

maintenance performed by air carriers.10

Table 2: Examples of Agencies’ Roles and Responsibilities Regarding Various Aviation Professionals

Several other federal agencies, 

including DOD, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), Education, and 

the Department of Labor (DOL), play a role in developing and maintaining 

a qualified aviation professional workforce, as shown in table 2.

Agency Role

FAA FAA sets requirements and oversees the AMT schools and testing; issues certificates to mechanics and repair 

stations; and performs outreach on behalf of the profession. 

DOD DOD administers a training program meant to supplement work experience, which upon completion makes service 

members eligible to take the mechanic certification exam.

VA VA administers several programs to provide financial assistance for higher education.

DOL DOL-supported workforce-training programs can fund engineering, mechanic, or avionics training programs. 

BLS BLS collects employment and wage data and makes long-term employment projections.

Education Education provides financial assistance to support training in aviation-related fields. 

Source: GAO analysis of government information.

The demand for air travel is highly sensitive to the state of the economy 

and to political, international, and even health-related events. As a result, 

despite periods of strong growth and earnings over the past decade, the 

industry has at times suffered substantial financial distress resulting in the 

industry contracting. For example, in response to the 2008 economic 

 

9

There are no current or historical data available on the number of enrollees and 

graduates of those schools, and FAA does not require the schools to report this 

information. 

10FAA does not approve air carrier’s maintenance programs; it issues carrier operations 

specifications that authorize the carrier to use a maintenance program and the air-carrier 

maintenance manual required by FAA regulations. Advisory Circular 120-16F.
 

Page 8 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

downturn and resulting decrease in demand for commercial air travel, 

airlines cut capacity and reduced their workforce. However, as demand 

for air travel has rebounded, the number of aircraft in operation and the 

size of the workforce are expected to grow. Representatives of the 

aviation industry are concerned there will not be a sufficient number of 

certain aviation professionals to support this growth—that is, the industry 

is concerned that the demand will exceed the available supply and that a 

labor shortage will result. While no agreed-upon definition for a labor 

shortage exists, it is commonly described as a sustained period during 

which the demand for workers in a geographic area exceeds the supply of 

workers available, qualified, and willing to work at a particular wage and 

under particular working conditions.

Our analyses of labor market data indicate that a shortage of aerospace 

engineers may exist, but our analysis found less support for a shortage of 

aircraft mechanics.11 For example, while both have low unemployment 

rates, neither employment nor earnings have increased for aircraft 

mechanics suggesting that employers’ demand for this occupation has 

not outstripped supply. Stakeholders representing these groups also 

varied in their overall assessment of the labor market. Further, while 

some of these individuals will pursue other careers, the number of people 

completing degrees in these or related fields has increased in recent 

years, and BLS employment projections indicate slower than average or 

no growth through 2022.

While no single metric can be used to identify whether a labor shortage 

exists, labor market data can be used as “indicators” —in conjunction with 

observations from stakeholders.12 According to economic literature, one 

can look at historical unemployment rates, as well as trends in 

employment and earnings.13

 

11We were unable to analyze information on avionics technicians because the sample size 

for the data was too small.

If a labor shortage were to exist, one would 

12As mentioned, a labor shortage occurs when demand for workers for a particular 

occupation is greater than the number (“supply”) of workers who are qualified, available, 

and willing to do the work at a certain wage rate.

13All data presented in this review on the unemployment rate, employment, and earnings 

are from BLS’s CPS data unless otherwise noted. Data from BLS on earnings have been 

adjusted for inflation.

Data and Forecasts 

Provide Mixed 

Evidence for a 

Current or Future 

Workforce Shortage

Evidence Is Mixed for

a Current Shortage

of Selected Aviation 

Professionals
 

Page 9 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

expect a low unemployment rate signaling limited availability of workers in 

a profession; increases in employment due to demand for that occupation 

increasing; and increases in wages offered to draw more people into the 

industry.14 Of these three indicators, the unemployment rate provides the 

most direct measure of a labor shortage because it estimates the number 

of people who are unemployed and actively looking for work in a specific 

occupation.15 The other indicators can be affected by factors unrelated to 

a labor shortage; for example, wages may be determined by union 

contracts rather than market demand. Results of these indicators can be 

analyzed in relation to other occupations and by using absolute scales 

defined by benchmarks that we identified in the economic literature.16

Two of the three labor market indicators we examined for aerospace 

engineers suggest that the profession may be experiencing a labor 

shortage (see table 3). From 2000 through 2012, the unemployment rate 

for aerospace engineers has averaged 2.3 percent—much lower than the 

economy as a whole—and employment has increased by about 50 

percent.17 Both the unemployment rate and employment could be 

suggestive of a labor shortage relative to other occupations and based on 

the scale we identified in the economic literature. For example, over this 

period, aerospace engineers had the 38th (out of 295) lowest 

unemployment rate and 45th (out of 490) largest growth in employment.18

 

14Cohen, Labor Shortages. 

Similarly, according to the 7-point scale we identified in economic 

literature, the unemployment rate and employment growth would receive 

a 5, which is not the highest rating, but still provides some support for a 

15Cohen, Labor Shortages. This assumes that unemployed individuals will likely seek 

work in the same occupation in which they were previously employed.

16Cohen, Labor Shortages. Cohen developed an absolute scale with seven categories to 

more easily synthesize results from the indicators. Each indicator is assigned a numerical 

value from 1 to 7 based on benchmarks that were derived by examining distributions of 

results and identifying natural groupings (e.g., distinguishing between positive and 

negative employment growth). A rating of “7” means than an indicator is most consistent

with a labor shortage and a “1” means that the indicator is most consistent with a labor 

surplus. 

17For the economy overall, since 2000, the average unemployment rate has been 6.3 

percent, earnings and employment has stayed about the same, according to BLS. 

18For this time period unemployment rates ranged from 0.6 percent to 22.2 percent across 

the different occupations. 
 

Page 10 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

labor shortage.19 Median earnings for aerospace engineers, however, 

have stayed about the same over that time period, a statistic that does 

not appear consistent with a labor shortage.20

Table 3: Unemployment, Employment, and Earnings for Selected Aviation Professions, 2000–2012

Specifically, if employers 

were experiencing difficulty hiring aerospace engineers, one would expect 

earnings to rise to attract new workers to the industry. However, other 

factors can also account for a lack of growth in earnings even during a 

labor shortage. For example, earnings may be slow to adjust to other 

labor market trends, or certain aspects of an industry may prevent wages 

from increasing (e.g., a highly competitive industry with slim profit 

margins). Furthermore, over our analytical time period, wages were 

stagnant through much of the economy as a result of two economic 

downturns.

Unemployment

Change in full-time employment 

(as a percentage per year)

Change in median weekly 

earnings (as a percentage per 

year)

Occupation

Rate

(average)

Rank

(total 295)

Rate

(yearly)

Rank

(total 490)

Rate

(yearly)

Rank

(total 250)

Aerospace 

engineers

2.3 38 a 4.6 45 a 0.3 60

Aircraft mechanics 

and service 

technicians

3.0 70 a -0.25 265 -0.07 127

All occupations 6.3 N/A 0.1 N/A 0.06 N/A

Source: GAO analysis of BLS’s CPS data.

Notes: Data are from unpublished CPS tables.

 

19Cohen, Labor Shortages. Growth rates for the change in employment, and earnings 

were calculated by fitting a time trend using a log linear regression, for which we 

computed statistical significance. As such, our calculations yield different larger annual 

changes compared to calculating the percentage change over the same time period and 

annualizing the percentage change because our method does not include the effect of 

compounding. While results show larger changes than an annualized analysis would, both 

values were within the range to receive a 5. Further, calculating the data this way allowed 

us to calculate the significance of any trends. 

20In Cohen’s book, the indicator levels for earning growth are presented in nominal terms, 

without accounting for inflation. They were developed using years 1983-1993. In order to 

use them for the period 2000 through 2012, when inflation has been lower, we adjusted 

them using the average inflation rates for the earlier period. Based on the adjusted scale, 

both occupations would receive a 4 (out of seven), although the real rate of growth in 

wages is close to zero. 
 

Page 11 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Average annual unemployment rates were ranked from lowest to highest. Yearly rates of change in 

full-time employment were ranked from highest to lowest. Yearly changes in earnings were ranked 

from highest to lowest.

BLS adopted the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) titles in 2010. As a result, some 

occupations were combined and others were phased out. While this did not affect the occupations 

relevant to our analysis, it affected the total number of occupations. We excluded any occupation for 

which the name changed. We also excluded occupations for an indicator if BLS did not report 

unemployment, or median weekly earnings, or employment for any year. We excluded avionics 

technicians since the workforce included fewer than 50,000 people and BLS did not report 

unemployment in many years.

In the table, growth rates for the change in employment and earnings were calculated by fitting a time 

trend using a log linear regression, for which we computed statistical significance. As such, our 

calculations yield different larger annual changes compared to calculating the percent change over 

the same time period and annualizing the percent change, because our method does not include the 

effect of compounding. For example, the 51 percent change over the 12 year period for aerospace 

engineers would result in a 3.6 annual rate of change, as opposed to the 4.6 reported in the table.

This would be the largest difference of any numbers reported in the table.

a

Denotes that the indicator would be suggestive of a labor shortage, although not at the highest level.

Data for aircraft mechanics provide less evidence of a labor shortage. 

From 2000 through 2012, the average unemployment rate for aircraft 

mechanics has been 3 percent—about half the rate for the entire 

workforce—which could be suggestive of a labor shortage.21 However, 

earnings for aircraft mechanics remained static and employment 

decreased.22

 

21From 2000 through 2012 aircraft mechanics had the 70th lowest unemployment rate (out 

of 295 occupations).

Industry stakeholders varied in their assessment of the labor 

market. Some industry officials we spoke with, representing companies 

that employ aircraft mechanics across the United States, told us that the 

industry was currently experiencing a labor shortage; however, others 

believed that there were enough people to perform the work, but 

companies were competing to hire the most experienced personnel. 

According to one industry stakeholder we spoke, the major airlines are 

not having difficulty attracting workers. As another stakeholder explained, 

if difficulty existed attracting workers, smaller businesses, and general 

aviation—particularly in rural areas—would most likely be affected first. 

The low unemployment rate suggests that with few available people to 

hire, employers may have difficulty finding people with specific skill sets, 

certifications, or work experiences.

22The growth rate for aircraft mechanics was negative and was the 265th highest out of 

490 occupations.
 

Page 12 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Our analysis of labor market data has a number of limitations given the 

nature of the CPS data from BLS and the scope of our analysis. SOC 

titles are broad, and may not take into account specific requirements an 

employer seeks. For example, many employers may require employees 

to hold an A&P certificate. However, BLS’s occupational classification for 

aircraft mechanics includes both certificated and non-certificated 

mechanics. As a result, labor market data may overestimate the number 

of available mechanics for certain employers. Moreover, BLS only publicly 

reports annual employment data for occupations that have at least 50,000 

people; as a result, we were unable to analyze data for avionics 

technicians. We identified the following other limitations of the labor 

market indicators:

• Data are collected through a household survey and are subject to 

sampling and response errors. Often, one individual will identify 

occupation, employment, and wage data for all household members; 

individuals may report incorrect or inconsistent information.

• Survey results of unemployment rates are based on the person’s last 

job, rather than the longest job held or occupation in which a person is 

trained or looking for work: the data, therefore, can miss individuals 

who are seeking work in a particular occupation. For example, an 

A&P mechanic who lost a job, worked temporarily in the automotive 

industry, and was then seeking employment as an A&P mechanic, 

would be classified as an automotive mechanic not as an A&P 

mechanic, when surveyed by BLS.

• BLS reports data on median earnings for aviation professionals in all 

stages of their careers, so we could not examine whether starting 

earnings have increased, an examination that would be more likely to 

indicate if wages were rising to attract entry-level workers.

• The data were collected at a national level; while not all indicators 

were consistent with a labor shortage, our analysis would not identify 

any regional shortages.

• Research by BLS and others suggests job vacancy data as another 

potential indicator for identifying labor shortages. However, BLS does 

not collect information on job vacancies at the occupational level. Job 

vacancy data are collected by some states and private companies, 
 

Page 13 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

but the data are limited. We could not obtain complete and sufficiently 

reliable occupational-level job-vacancy data from these sources.23

Finally, as mentioned above, no single measure can provide definitive 

evidence as to whether a labor shortage exists. Rather, these data can 

indicate the extent to which employers may have difficulty attracting 

people at the current wage rate. Moreover, even if perfect data existed, 

the term labor shortage is sometimes used to describe a variety of 

situations, some of which are generally not considered to be shortages.24

For example, during periods of economic recession, employers may 

become accustomed to hiring a high caliber of candidate with specific 

training or levels of experience at a prescribed wage rate. In these cases, 

employers can be more selective when hiring candidates and could, for 

example, look for individuals with niche skills or more experience. 

However, during an economic expansion, where companies may be 

increasing the size of their workforce, it is likely that the number of job 

applicants will shrink and employers may have difficulty finding the same 

caliber of candidate. Under these circumstances, the employer’s 

challenge may become one of quality of available people, not necessarily 

quantity of people willing and able to do the job.

From 2000 through 2012, the number of people identifying as aerospace 

engineers and aircraft mechanics and service technicians–both 

certificated and non-certificated–has increased, according to BLS data 

(see fig. 2).25

 

23BLS collects a Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey that provides a broad measure 

of job vacancies, but not by occupation.

For example, the size of the aircraft-mechanic and servicetechnician workforce in 2012 had increased 5 percent since 2000. Moving 

forward, a couple stakeholders that represent training programs and 

members of the armed services noted that they expect an increase in the 

number of available mechanics due to an increase in the number of 

24Carolyn Veneri, “Can Occupational Labor Shortages be Identified Using Available Data,” 

Monthly Labor Review (March 1999) 15-21.

25Data are not available for avionics technicians because the workforce is too small and 

BLS did not publicly report data for all years. Further, these data for aerospace engineers 

and aircraft mechanics are from the CPS survey and represent the number of people, both 

employed and unemployed that either are or were most recently employed in these 

occupations. BLS uses the term aircraft mechanics and service technicians to describe 

individuals that repair, maintain, and service aircraft. 

Data Suggest That the 

Number of Individuals in 

the Selected Professions 

Is Increasing, but Several 

Industries Compete for 

These Workers
 

Page 14 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

completions in aircraft maintenance related degrees and people 

separating from the armed services, respectively.

Figure 2: Number of Aerospace Engineers and Aircraft Mechanics, 2000–2012 (in thousands)

Note: Data are not available for avionics technicians because the survey sample size is too small for 

data to meet the reporting threshold.

The number of completions in aerospace-engineering-related fields has 

generally increased, according to data from Education.26

 

26Education categorizes all degree programs through a Classification of Instructional 

Programs (CIP); each CIP code is then matched to the SOC. This relationship indicates 

that programs classified in the CIP category prepare individuals directly for jobs classified 

in the SOC category. For our analysis of Education data, we included CIP programs that 

prepare individuals directly to our occupations of interest. For aerospace engineers, this 

included the following degree programs: aerospace, aeronautical and astronautical/space 

engineering engineering (CIP code 14.0201), mechanical engineering (CIP code

14.1901), and electrical and electronics engineering (CIP code 14.1001).

For example, 

from academic years 2000–2001 through 2011–2012, there has been a 

39 percent increase in the number of completions (see fig. 3). 
 

Page 15 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Representatives from engineering programs we spoke with generally 

suggested that the number of completions from engineering programs will 

be sufficient to meet demand given future BLS employment projections. 

Therefore, they suggested that it is unlikely that a labor shortage will 

develop in the near future. For example, one representative told us he 

would expect demand to be met given the increase in the number of 

completions combined with the projected slow growth in government 

projections for selected employment in the aviation field. The same 

stakeholder noted that the vast majority of engineers are getting 

employment offers, but are receiving, on average, fewer offers than in 

past years. A union representative we spoke with echoed a similar 

sentiment, saying that aerospace engineering needs will be met given the 

number of engineers entering the workforce.

Figure 3: Completions in Aerospace-Engineering-Related Fields by Level of Degree, 2001–2012

Note: Analysis includes degree programs that train individuals for work as aerospace engineers.

Numbers of aerospace engineering completions, however, are not a 

direct reflection of the number of individuals entering the aviation 
 

Page 16 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

workforce. According to FAA, the industry also uses civil, software, and 

chemical engineers, among others. For example, the aviation industry 

requires electrical and software engineers to design airplane motors or 

electrical circuits and design programs to make air travel faster, 

respectively. Further, other industries, such as financial services and 

information technology, compete for aerospace and other types of 

engineers and often offer less career uncertainty and more exciting job 

prospects, according to one industry stakeholder representing aerospace 

companies. Officials we spoke with both at engineering training programs 

and within industry attributed this to the fact that the aviation industry is 

highly cyclical, offering less job security than other industries.

In terms of the other aviation occupations, the number of completions of 

AMT-related programs has also increased; however, the number of 

completions in avionics related programs has not.27

 

27The related CIP codes for aircraft mechanic included airframe mechanics and aircraft 

maintenance technology (CIP code 47.0607), aircraft power-plant technology (CIP code 

47.0608), and agricultural mechanics and equipment technology (CIP code 01.0205), 

whereas avionics technicians only included avionics maintenance technology/technician 

(CIP code 47.0609).

Over the past 

decade, the number of students receiving degrees in aircraft maintenance 

has increased by 48 percent (see fig. 4), while the number of students 

receiving degrees in avionics has decreased by 53 percent. However, 

data on degrees granted in avionics may not be a good indicator for the 

number of people gaining training to be an avionics technician. For 

example, according to officials from one school, a sizeable portion of 

avionics technicians received training in other fields, including electronics 

technology or electrical engineering, which is not captured in these data. 

Similarly, some AMT schools offer avionics specialties; though students 

may go on to be avionics technicians, according to this data source, they 

are classified as aircraft mechanics. According to officials from a couple 

selected AMT schools, based on the number of students enrolled in 

avionics specialties in their schools, interest in avionics has increased in 

recent years.
 

Page 17 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Figure 4: Aircraft-Mechanic and Avionics-Maintenance-Related Completions, 2001–2012

Note: Analysis includes degree programs that train individuals for work as aircraft mechanics or 

avionics technicians.

Nevertheless, we heard from education officials at selected AMT and 

avionics schools and others that not all graduating students received job 

offers or go to work in the aviation industry upon completion. For 

example, officials at the majority of AMT schools we visited told us that 

graduates on occasion pursue other fields of work. According to these 

officials, some graduates from AMT schools pursue other occupations 

that offer higher wages or better working conditions—such as the 

industrial heating industry—or occupations that are likely considered 

more exciting such as working for amusement parks and NASCAR 

(National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing, Inc.). Some officials 

suggested this could be a result of students not yet earning an A&P 

certificate. However, this also could suggest there are more students 

entering the field than jobs available in a particular location or that 

employers are hesitant to hire A&P mechanics directly out of school.

Enrollments at AMT schools have generally been increasing and, if 

demand existed, AMT schools could train more people to become aircraft 
 

Page 18 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

mechanics and avionics technicians. According to the Aviation Technician 

Education Council, an organization that represents more than 100 AMT 

schools, 10 of those reported that they were, on average, utilizing about 

half of their training capacity.28

The number of aircraft mechanics and avionics technicians separating 

from the military—another main source of supply—and entering the 

civilian workforce has stayed relatively constant since fiscal year 2001, 

but will likely increase in the future, according to DOD officials.

This is similar to what we were told by 3 of 

the 5 schools we interviewed, which reported that they could or planned 

to increase capacity. 

29

 

28FAA does not require approved AMT schools to provide data on enrollments or 

graduation rates.

From 

fiscal year 2001 through 2012, about 16,000 workers trained in aviation 

maintenance related occupations separated from the military annually, 

according to DOD data (see fig. 5). However, it is unknown how many of 

these individuals stayed in aviation maintenance upon completion of their 

military service. Further, according to DOD officials, the vast majority of 

these individuals will not hold an A&P certificate when entering the civilian 

workforce, a factor that can make them less desirable to employers. 

Nevertheless, DOD officials told us that they expect separations for 

aviation maintenance workers to increase in the future given planned 

workforce reductions.

29DOD data for aircraft mechanics include avionics technicians. DOD was unable to 

provide data for engineers.
 

Page 19 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Figure 5: Aviation Maintenance Personnel Annually Separating from the Military, Fiscal Years 2001–2012

The annual number of newly issued A&P certificates, while declining in 

the early 2000’s and staying relatively constant at about 6,000 new 

certificates annually from 2003 to 2010, has increased in recent years 

(see fig. 6). About 7,000 individuals were issued their certificates in 2012. 

These individuals met the requirements either through attending AMT 

schools (4,072) or through on-the-job training or military service training 

(2,824). Over this same period, the pool of certificated A&P mechanics 

has stayed roughly the same, according to FAA—ranging from roughly 

313,000 to 338,000 individuals. In 2013, there were over 335,000 

certificated A&P mechanics age 70 or younger.
 

Page 20 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Figure 6: The Number of New A&P Certificates Issued by Training Type, 2000–2012
 

Page 21 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

BLS’s employment projections suggest slower than average or no growth 

for our selected professions over the next 10 years.30 From 2012 to 2022, 

according to BLS, the U.S. economy is projected to add more than 15.6 

million new jobs as total employment grows from nearly 145.4 million to 

more than 161 million (an overall 10.8 percent growth rate or an 

annualized growth rate of 1.0 percent per year). According to BLS, the

number of aerospace engineers employed in the United States is 

projected to increase to 89,100 by 2022, an overall 7.3 percent increase 

over the 83,000 employed in 2012.31 Alternatively, employment for aircraft 

mechanics and service technicians and for avionics technicians employed 

in the United States is projected to show little or no change through 2022. 

Employment for aircraft mechanics and services technicians and avionics 

technicians is expected to increase by about 2.5 percent (or 3,000 jobs) 

and 2.9 percent (or 500 jobs) over the same 10-year period, 

respectively.32

 

30We also reviewed two industry studies that projected maintenance employment within 

the aviation industry worldwide and by region–one published by The International Civil 

Aviation Organization (ICAO) and one by the Boeing Company (Boeing). The ICAO study 

forecasted future employment demand and the available supply of maintenance personnel 

based on existing training capacity, but did not produce a projected rate of growth. The 

Boeing study projected employment for personnel employed to maintain commercial 

aircraft and found that to meet future anticipated demand, including the effects of 

anticipated retirements and attrition, approximately 97,900 new aviation maintenance 

workers will be need to be hired in North America by 2032. We were unable to assess the 

reliability of these studies due to a lack of sufficient information about their methods and 

assumptions. For more information on these forecasts see the International Civil Aviation 

Organization, Global and Regional 20-year Forecasts: Pilots, Maintenance Personnel, and 

Air Traffic Controllers (2011) and the Boeing Company Current Market Outlook, 2013-

2032. 

While air traffic is expected to increase over the coming 

decade, according to BLS, it is likely that airlines’ continued outsourcing 

of maintenance overseas and the introduction of newer aircraft that 

require less maintenance will affect demand for these occupations. While 

projections show slower than average or no growth for these occupations, 

BLS also provides forecasts of the number of job openings to 

accommodate both industry growth and the replacement of workers 

31This would result in an annualized growth rate of about 0.71 percent per year. 

Employment growth in this area is relatively low because aerospace engineers are 

typically employed in manufacturing industries that are projected to grow slowly or decline. 

Demand for aerospace engineers will be greatest in areas related to national defense and 

the design of civilian aircraft, according to BLS.

32Employment for aircraft mechanics and service technicians is projected to be 124,700 in 

2022 (an annualized growth rate of about 0.24), and employment of avionics technicians 

is projected to be 17,600 in 2022 (an annualized growth rate of about 0.29).

Projections Suggest 

Slower Than Average 

or No Growth for the 

Selected Aviation 

Professions
 

Page 22 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

leaving these jobs.33

BLS’s future employment demand for an industry or occupation is 

influenced by the projected demand for goods and services produced by 

an industry. For example, the projected employment of aircraft mechanics 

and service technicians is influenced by the projected demand for air 

travel and various manufacturing industries. To estimate future 

employment in the various occupations, BLS uses historical economic 

and employment data and forecasts of key economic factors, such as 

economic growth by sector of the economy, to estimate the number of 

jobs that will result in those industries.

According to BLS data, most of the demand for new 

workers in these three occupations will be to replace those retiring or 

leaving the profession.

While BLS’s projections are helpful in gaining a sense of the expected 

growth in aviation employment, developing long-term occupational 

employment projections is inherently uncertain for a variety of reasons. 

Specifically, these projections rely on a set of assumptions about the 

future, some of which may not come to fruition. For example, BLS’s 

projection assumes a full-employment economy in the target year, but if a 

recession occurred, for example, projections for employment are likely to 

be overstated. That said, projecting occupational employment is 

reasonably feasible because there are often historical data showing 

employment trends that can be compared to, for example, economic 

growth and factors affecting the airline industry—including trends in 

passenger travel and the cost of key inputs, such as fuel. On the other 

hand, analyzing whether a shortage might arise in an occupation would 

require an understanding of both the supply and demand characteristics 

of the market and an ability to project each of these relationships 

independently. The factors underlying those relationships require 

information that is more detailed and likely difficult to develop based on 

past data, a challenge exacerbated when projecting into the future. For 

example, forecasting the labor supply requires understanding how the 

number of people who might choose to work in an occupation varies at 

different wage rates or working conditions. In the case of the three 

selected professions, we have past data on the trends in the number of 

degrees or certifications awarded—which tend to show a growing number 

 

33Specifically, during the 2012 to 2022 timeframe, BLS estimates there will be 25,400 job 

openings for aerospace engineers, 35,600 job openings for aircraft mechanics and service 

technicians, and 4,000 job openings for avionics technicians. 
 

Page 23 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

of people entering the professions—but these data do not provide a 

forecast of future supply. Nonetheless, with employment growth projected 

to be slower than average or not to grow and recent trends indicating a 

stable or growing supply of personnel, there is little reason to believe that 

a significant shortage is likely to arise in the United States over the next 

several years.

Most of the employers we interviewed reported some challenges hiring 

individuals in the selected professions; often this was not an issue of an 

insufficient number of candidates seeking employment, but rather an 

insufficient number of candidates with the experience and skills 

employers sought available to work at the wage being offered. Certain 

employers, for example those seeking niche or craft skills or those 

located far from metropolitan areas, cited particular difficulty attracting 

workers. Almost all employers we spoke with reported taking some 

actions that economists associate with responding to a labor shortage, 

but few were raising wages to attract workers. Federal agencies have 

programs in place that support training for the selected aviation 

professions, but employers of all sizes, including those that are not 

currently experiencing hiring challenges, were concerned that young 

people are losing interest in aviation careers and that future employment 

needs may go unmet.

Most of the employers we interviewed—particularly the small and 

medium-sized firms—cited some challenges hiring individuals in the 

selected aviation professions with the skills they were seeking at the 

wage they offered. Of the 23 employers we interviewed, 16 expressed 

some degree of difficulty hiring, though often the issue was not due to an 

insufficient number of workers, but rather an insufficient number of 

workers with the experience levels employers desired. Employers also 

reported challenges hiring mechanics with certain niche or craft skills, 

such as upholstery, welding, and cabinetry—skills that are not unique to 

aviation. Similarly, employers seeking aerospace engineers, as well as 

mechanical and electrical engineers, reported difficulty filling vacancies. 

According to some employers and stakeholders we interviewed, attracting 

engineers is made difficult by the lack of job security that results from the 

cyclical nature of the aerospace industry and the volatility of demand for 

aircraft and air travel related to the economy.

Certain employers also cited location as a challenge to attracting 

individuals in our selected professions. For example, employers located 

Industry and 

Government Are 

Taking Some Actions 

to Facilitate Entry

into the Aviation 

Workforce, but 

Employers Remain 

Concerned about 

Future Needs

Employers Reported 

Varying Levels of Difficulty 

Filling Vacancies and 

Attracting Individuals in 

the Selected Aviation 

Professions
 

Page 24 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

farther from metropolitan areas or those considered to be “aviation hubs” 

explained that they had difficulty attracting people for engineering and 

mechanic positions. Employers seeking to hire mechanics added that in 

more rural areas, they would have the most success hiring and retaining 

employees from the surrounding areas, but have found it difficult to do so 

if there is not a local AMT school to support training needs.

Smaller employers—those with less than 100 employees—often 

considered themselves to be at a disadvantage in attracting workers 

relative to larger companies. According to 5 of these 13 employers, large 

air carriers and major manufacturers are considered more desirable, 

offering employees a sense of stability and an air of prestige, often at 

higher wages. Employment with an air carrier also offers attractive fringe 

benefits, such as the ability to fly on standby or for a discounted fare. One 

employer we interviewed, which is collocated at an airport with a repair 

station for a large manufacturer, said that despite its offer of comparable 

wages, it has a hard time competing with the brand-name recognition of 

larger employers. Consistent with this assessment, more than half of the 

large employers we interviewed said that they were not currently 

experiencing difficulties attracting and retaining workers.

Employers who reported challenges hiring A&P mechanics often 

expressed a reluctance to hire recent graduates or recently certificated 

A&P mechanics. While the A&P certificate may signal an aptitude and a 

level of general knowledge, many employers felt that recent graduates 

lack on-the-job experiences to supplement their education. According to 

employers, it generally takes between 1 and 3 years to become fully 

proficient as a mechanic. As a result, according to 5 of the 23 employers 

who provided their opinions, preferred employment candidates were 

generally certificated A&P mechanics with at least 2 to 5 years of 

experience working with the specific aircraft types that the employer 

maintained and repaired because these individuals could make an 

immediate contribution with limited supervision.

While employers found the A&P curriculum to generally be well-aligned, 

overall, with their needs, some employers we interviewed said that the 

curriculum’s focus is on out-dated technologies—such as aircraft built 

with dope and fabric—at the expense of more relevant topics, such as 

composite materials. We previously reported similar concerns from 
 

Page 25 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

industry stakeholders in 2003.34 Specifically, at that time stakeholders 

indicated that the core curriculum at AMT schools provided mechanics 

with a solid understanding of basic repair principles, but that some parts 

of the curriculum were obsolete and covered aspects of aviation repair 

that are rarely needed or used by A&P mechanics.35

In addition to challenges hiring workers, 7 of the 23 companies we 

interviewed reported that while they had some difficulties retaining 

employees, overall retention was not a major issue. That said, according 

to representatives of these companies, most of the employees who resign 

leave for similar positions at companies that offer higher wages, that are 

located in places with a lower cost of living, or that are considered to be 

employers that are more attractive. Nevertheless, some leave for other 

industries. According to some employers and stakeholders we spoke to, 

mechanics have relevant skills for working at a variety of occupations, 

including at amusement parks or on oil rigs, which were stated to be 

either higher paying or have characteristics employees found more 

favorable.

At least two of those 

areas—soldering and welding—have been identified by researchers as 

subjects that could be deleted or condensed because of infrequency of 

use. However, employers we interviewed indicated skills in these areas 

were lacking among the current workforce, especially recently certificated

A&P mechanics. Given the diversity in the type and age of aircraft in the 

civilian fleet, satisfying the needs of all employers would be difficult. For 

example, while dope and fabric aircraft are less common, some 

certificated aircraft are still produced with those materials; and while 

composite materials are being used in new airframe construction, 

aluminum airframes are still the most common.

 

34GAO, Aviation Safety: FAA Needs to Update Curriculum and Certification Requirements 

for Aviation Mechanics, GAO-03-317 (Washington, D.C.: Mar 6, 2003).

35Partly in response to previous GAO work (GAO-03-317), FAA convened an Aviation 

Rulemaking Advisory Committee (ARAC). In 2007, FAA assigned the ARAC a new task: 

to review and recommend revisions to certain requirements for operation of AMT schools. 

In 2009, the ARAC submitted recommendations to FAA that included: (1) creating a 

curriculum review board to biennially review and recommend changes and (2) changing 

the distribution of training hours between subjects to 450 hours for general knowledge, 

800 hours for airframe, and 650 hours for power plant. According to FAA, it implemented 

the recommendation to create the review board, chaired by the Aviation Technical 

Education Council, which began operation in fiscal year 2014.
 

Page 26 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

According to economic literature we reviewed, employers—who first 

identify a shortage when they encounter difficulty filling vacancies at the 

current wage rate—may take a variety of actions in response to a 

perceived labor shortage.36

In response to difficulties filling employment vacancies, employers may:

Their actions vary in desirability for the 

employer based on resources required and their permanency. For 

example, increasing recruiting requires fewer resources than investing in 

technologies that could replace labor; further, recruitment efforts could be 

halted if labor market conditions changed, whereas investing in new 

technologies cannot be easily undone. Employers may also choose to 

take some of these actions for reasons other than filling vacancies—for 

example, to improve morale among current employees or to increase 

profitability.

• Increase recruiting efforts. Increasing recruiting efforts includes such 

activities as increasing advertising, using public or private 

employment agencies, and paying recruiting bonuses to employees 

who refer new hires.

• Increase the use of overtime. Employers may choose to have current 

employees work additional hours in place of hiring additional workers, 

especially if they do not expect hiring difficulties to last for a 

substantial period of time.

• Reduce the minimum qualifications for the job. Employers may have 

set minimum qualifications higher than necessary and may choose to 

reduce those qualifications when hiring becomes difficult. Though 

employers cannot reduce the requirements for earning A&P 

certification, they may choose to hire non-certificated mechanics or 

lower required years of experience necessary for consideration for 

employment.

• Restructure the work to use current or new employees in other 

occupations. In some cases, complex jobs can be decomposed into 

simpler tasks, allowing less-skilled and perhaps cheaper labor to be 

used in place of other occupations. For example, employers may 

 

36Burt S. Barnow, John Trutko, and Jaclyn Piatak, “Conceptual Basis for Identifying and 

Measuring Occupational Labor Shortages.” In Occupational Labor Shortages: Concepts, 

Causes, Consequences, and Cures (Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for 

Employment Research, 2013) 1-34.

Employers Are Taking a 

Variety of Actions to Attract 

and Retain Individuals in 

the Selected Aviation 

Professions
 

Page 27 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

choose to use less-skilled workers to begin the repair process by 

pulling panels from aircraft, freeing A&P mechanics for other tasks.

• Substitute machinery and equipment for labor. Employers may 

sometimes be able to use machinery or equipment in place of labor. 

For example, a die-cut machine can precisely cut sheet metal, a task 

that was previously done by hand.

• Train workers for the job. In a difficult labor market, an employer that 

traditionally relied upon colleges or vocational or trade schools to train 

its workforce may choose to offer or sponsor training.

• Improve working conditions. Improving working conditions—such as 

changes in hours worked, equipment or facility upgrades, training, and 

job recognition efforts—may be a means to attract and retain workers.

• Offer bonuses to new employees. Employers may offer new 

employees a “signing” bonus, such as, covering moving expenses for 

agreeing to join a company.

• Improve wages and fringe benefits. Increasing wages will help 

increase the number of workers willing to work in a particular position 

or occupation. However, employers are reluctant to do this because 

they may be forced to raise the wages of current employees as well. 

Further, unlike some other actions, once wages are raised, it is 

unlikely that they will be reduced later if hiring becomes less difficult.

• Contract out the work. If employers cannot fill vacancies for 

employees in certain occupations, it may contract out those tasks to 

another firm.

• Turn down work. If a firm has exhausted other means to mitigate its 

hiring challenges and vacancies persist, it may choose to turn down 

work.

Companies we interviewed took some of the above actions in direct 

response to a perceived labor shortage. For example, 10 of the 16 

companies that reported hiring difficulties increased recruiting efforts—

including using social media and attending career fairs. Many companies 

also made use of specialty websites that advertise aviation jobs as well 

as staffing and recruiting agencies that offer short-term contract workers 

and contract-to-hire options. Almost half of the companies we 

interviewed—including those that did not cite challenges hiring—also 

developed and leveraged relationships with local schools as a means to 

recruit workers. According to one company, its location made attracting 

employees difficult and there were no local schools from which to recruit. 

In response, it built a relationship with a local technical college with an 
 

Page 28 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

automotive-maintenance-training program and hired and trained its 

students—with aptitude in painting and certain machinery—for related 

aviation tasks.

Almost all companies we interviewed reported training workers for the job, 

though few reported providing the initial training to become a mechanic, 

instead many offered A&P mechanics they employed the opportunity for 

training in areas specific to the work they were doing for the company. 

For example, 18 of the 22 companies that reported providing training to 

its employees sent employees to training courses specific to the make or 

model of aircraft that the company repaired, or to courses that would build 

company capabilities on topics such as composites or non-destructive 

testing. Only one company we interviewed reported hiring individuals 

without formal training, training them on-the-job, and paying for their A&P 

testing. Another company reported hiring former military members and 

sending them for refresher courses to prepare them for the A&P 

certification exam.

Approximately one-third of companies reported reducing their minimum 

standards for employment. For example, three companies lowered the 

number of years of experience it required of applicants and another said 

that it would like to do so in the future to expand its hiring pool. However, 

10 of the companies we interviewed said they would not lower standards; 

they reasoned that doing so might reduce the quality of their work and 

they were not willing to expose themselves or their clients to those risks, 

or that doing so would, in the end, be more expensive for them because 

non-certificated mechanics need to be under the supervision of a 

certificated mechanic. Nine of the companies we interviewed that had 

challenges attracting workers also reported having to turn down work 

because of staffing constraints, though the frequency varied. According to 

some of these companies, turning down work was a last resort. In 

addition, in some instances, companies described receiving requests for 

services that they could not accommodate in the customer’s desired time 

frames, and as a result, the customer went elsewhere.

Few companies we interviewed reported raising wages, improving 

benefits, or offering bonuses to attract employees. Five of the 16 

companies that reported difficulties filling vacancies also raised wages. 

However, only one did so explicitly to attract additional mechanics; two 

did so to remain competitive with other employers, one did so following a 

multi-year pay freeze, and the last raised wages after it was acquired by a 

larger entity. Four companies that reported difficulties filling vacancies 

offered bonuses to new employees. Though raising wages and offering 
 

Page 29 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

bonuses would be obvious ways to increase the number of workers 

willing to work in a particular occupation, doing so could have implications 

in the market for air travel or aircraft repair if those costs are passed on to 

the customer. The inability to pass those costs on was the reason that 

officials from at least one company we interviewed provided for why the 

company could not afford to raise wages; according to that company, its 

clients—air carriers—paid a fixed amount, leaving no margin for 

increased labor costs. In other situations, companies facing competition 

from repair stations abroad where labor is cheaper may also find it difficult 

to increase wages.

Officials from many of the companies we interviewed were taking some of 

the actions we identified for reasons unrelated to difficulty filling 

vacancies. For example, 17 of the companies we interviewed indicated 

that they used overtime but not necessarily in place of hiring additional 

workers. According to those employers, the nature of their business is 

such that there are peaks and valleys in workflow. At times, the amount of 

work that must be completed is in excess of what can be completed in a 

normal workweek; however, it is not a sustained level of work and hiring 

additional employees would mean layoffs or having to cut hours at other 

points in the year. Eighteen companies also indicated that they improved 

working conditions—such as by improving the tools available to 

employees, updating safety mechanisms, and installing fans or lighting to 

making working in hangars more comfortable—in efforts to improve 

morale and retention.

Some actions were taken largely in response to business needs. For 

example, almost all of the companies we interviewed reported contracting 

out some tasks that were more economical than building the capabilities 

to complete them internally. These tasks included non-destructive testing 

and parts plating. In addition, approximately half of companies we 

interviewed discussed restructuring their work as a means to maximize 

efficiency. According to those companies, they did not necessarily 

restructure their work in an effort reduce the number of mechanics or 

engineers required in response to or because of hiring challenges. 

Instead, they sought to maximize the efficiency of their current workforce 

by using more experienced mechanics to do work that is more 

complicated. Further, while approximately one-third of the companies we 

interviewed reported introducing technologies to improve efficiency in the 

workplace—for example, automating the troubleshooting part of repair 

work—only one company substituted the use of machinery (a die-cut 

machine) for positions previously held by people.
 

Page 30 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

As mentioned previously, while no single agency is tasked with 

developing the aviation professional workforce, several maintain 

programs that help promote and train people for aviation-related careers. 

At the time of its creation in 1958, the FAA was tasked with regulating, 

promoting, encouraging, and developing civil aeronautics. In 1996, 

following criticism of its response to the ValuJet crash in the Florida 

Everglades and to address concerns about its dual role, FAA’s mission 

was amended to make ensuring the safety of the national air-space 

system the agency’s top priority.37

Currently, FAA’s Office of Aviation and Space Education (AVSED) is 

tasked with increasing the public’s knowledge of aviation and the key role 

air transportation plays in the U.S. economy, and serves to help recruit 

new workers into the field. AVSED collaborates with federal, state, and 

local agencies, as well as private sector entities, to promote aviationrelated science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) skills and 

grow the pipeline of students seeking to work in aerospace-related fields 

or aviation maintenance. To this end, AVSED produced a DVD and 

developed a brochure on aviation maintenance careers that it shares with 

college recruiters and high school guidance counselors and distributes at 

career fairs, and that has been shown on public television. AVSED also 

ran a national poster campaign called, “Yes I Can Do That.” In 

partnership with other organizations, AVSED is involved in a variety of 

activities, including the Real World Design Challenge, a high school-level 

engineering competition; the Build-a-Plane program which provides 

schools with aircraft to be used as teaching tools; and the Walk in my 

Boots Program, which offers students the opportunity to observe aviation 

mechanics in the hangar for a day. In addition, AVSED works with the 

According to FAA, it remained 

responsible for promotional tasks, but specific references were deleted 

from its mandate.

 

37On May 11, 1996, a ValuJet DC-9 crashed into the Florida Everglades shortly after takeoff from Miami International Airport, killing all 110 people aboard. Earlier that year, FAA 

had initiated a special review of the rapidly growing low, cost carrier following a series of 

incidents and non-fatal accidents. In June 1996, FAA announced that the carrier would 

cease operations pending safety improvements to address serious deficiencies it had 

found in ValuJet’s airworthiness, maintenance, quality oversight, and engineering 

capabilities. This sparked renewed criticism of the Department of Transportation and FAA 

because it appeared to contrast with statements, made following the accident, assuring 

the public that the airline was safe. The next day, the Secretary of Transportation 

committed to urge Congress to make safety FAA’s single primary mission. The change 

was codified in the Federal Aviation Reauthorization Act of 1996, Pub.L. No. 104-264, § 

401, 110 Stat. 3213, 3255.

The Federal Government 

Maintains Several 

Programs and Initiatives 

That Can Help Attract 

People to Aviation-Related 

Fields
 

Page 31 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Centers of Excellence, which award aerospace research grants to 

colleges and the National Coalition of Certification Centers, a network of 

education providers and corporations that supports and advances 

technology skills in the aviation industry, among others, and promotes 

aviation-maintenance technical degrees and careers. Further, AVSED 

maintains national partnerships with various groups with shared interest 

in growing the aviation workforce, including the Organization of Black 

Aerospace Professionals, Women in Aviation International, Youth 

Aviation Adventure, and the Experimental Aircraft Association.

AVSED tries to track the number of events it organizes and individuals 

who participate; however, it does not have a mechanism to evaluate the 

effectiveness of those programs or if the participants pursue an aviationrelated career. Without a measure of effectiveness or feedback 

mechanism to determine if the materials are reaching AVSED’s target 

audience and if that audience is responsive to its efforts, FAA may be 

missing opportunities to improve performance.38

Other agencies also administer programs that could encourage entry into 

aviation careers.

However, according to 

AVSED officials, efforts to track program participation and outcomes 

would be difficult from a privacy perspective given the ages of its target 

audience and would be prohibitively costly to execute. AVSED’s outreach 

efforts are done with limited funding as the office does not have a 

dedicated budget; instead, AVSED relies on transfers from other offices 

for its activities. For example, the DVD and brochures it produced were 

made with funds transferred from Flight Standards.

• DOD trains and employs over 114,000 individuals working in 

occupations that are comparable to the aviation professional 

occupations discussed in this report. However, while in the military, 

mechanics are not mandated to hold A&P certificates. Further, their 

training may be for specific tasks or duties and, as a result, does not 

necessarily qualify them for eligibility to take the A&P exam. As 

previously mentioned, though certification is not required for civilian 

employment either, certificated A&P mechanics can command higher 

wages and have better promotion potential.

 

38GAO, Managing for Results: Critical Actions for Measuring Performance, T-GGD/AIMD95-187 (Washington, D.C.: June 20, 1995).
 

Page 32 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

In an effort to help separating service members find civilian 

employment and to promote a more professional military workforce, 

DOD has undertaken several actions to facilitate A&P certification of 

its members. For example, since 2002 the Community College of the 

Air Force has run the FAA-approved JSAMTCC bridge program that, 

upon completion, confers a certificate of eligibility—equivalent to a 

training program diploma—to take the A&P exam. The JSAMTCC 

program is available to members of all services who have attained 

minimum requirements in aviation maintenance—typically after 3 

years of experience in a related position—and includes three selfpaced courses taken online in addition to on-the-job training. 

According to DOD officials, depending on individual circumstances, 

the time to complete the program varies. According to DOD, several 

thousand service members have enrolled in the program (see table 

4). However, the numbers who have completed the program are much 

smaller, likely because deployments and other activities interrupt 

coursework. Once eligible for the exam, service members can 

complete the written portions of the A&P exam free at testing facilities 

located on base. In addition, the Navy, for example, subsidizes the 

cost of the practical and oral exams for its members and the Army 

awards promotion points for attainment of the certification. In 

coordination with the FAA, the services have also standardized their 

forms to facilitate proving eligibility to take the exam.

Table 4: Aircraft-Maintenance-Technician Certification Program Enrollments and 

Completions by Service, 2002–2013

Air Force Army Marine Corps Navy Coast Guard

Enrolled 5,911 1,916 145 1,274 16

Completions 193 39 7 39 14

Source: DOD.
 

Page 33 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

In the last year, DOD also completed a pilot program aimed at 

streamlining credentialing and licensing for military members that 

included aircraft mechanics.39 The Navy and Air Force, which employ 

the largest number of aircraft mechanics, participated by designing 

efforts to increase participation in the technician certification program. 

DOD found that though it would be ideal for service members to start 

the program early in their military careers, service members lacked an 

appreciation for the differences between the military and civilian 

requirements for aircraft mechanics, and for the value of FAA 

certification, resulting in many choosing not to participate.40

In coordination with DOL, VA, and other federal partners, DOD also 

administers the Transition Assistance Program (TAP)

The 

services also found that the cost of taking the A&P exam—on average 

$1,750—was prohibitively expensive for some who completed the 

JSAMTCC program. As part of the pilot program, the Air Force made 

arrangements to pay the fee. The Navy, which already had a program 

in place to meet the cost of certification exams, focused on better 

marketing for the program. Based on the outcomes of their efforts, the 

Navy plans to continue outreach and the Air Force plans to pay for all 

exam costs, funding permitting.

41

 

39Section 558 of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2012, 

Pub. L. No. 112-81, 125 Stat. 1298, 1418 (2011), as amended by section 543 of NDAA for 

Fiscal Year 2013, Pub. L. No. 112-239, 126 Stat. 1632, 1737, required DOD to carry out a 

pilot program to assess the feasibility and advisability of permitting enlisted members of 

the Armed Forces to obtain civilian credentialing or licensing for skills required for military

occupational specialties or qualification for duty specialty codes. In addition to aircraft 

mechanics, the pilot included automotive mechanics, healthcare support, logistics and 

supply, and truck drivers. 

for eligible 

separating service members. TAP consists of a 5-day core curriculum 

with segments on translating military skills to civilian job requirements, 

financial planning, and individual counseling and assessment with the 

goal of each service member’s developing an individual transition 

plan. It also includes a process that “crosswalks” military jobs to 

civilian occupations by evaluating the transferability of skills from the 

individual’s military occupational specialty to civilian occupations. In 

40As previously noted, military aircraft mechanics are not required to hold an A&P 

certification and may not understand the additional autonomy tasks—such as returning a 

plane to service—and career opportunities available to civilian mechanics who hold a 

certificate as compared to those who do not.

41National Defense Authorization Act, Fiscal Year 1991, Pub. L. No. 101-510, § 502(a)(1), 

104 Stat. 1485, 1553 (1990).
 

Page 34 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

addition, participants may attend one or more 2-day tracks, including 

tracks focused on entering a technical skills training program. Moving 

forward, DOD has said that it plans to shift to a Military Life Cycle 

Transition Model by October 2014, a more proactive approach 

intended to integrate transition preparation—counseling, 

assessments, and access to resources to build skills or credentials—

throughout the course of a service member’s military career. Federal 

laws, as well as DOD policy, generally require that eligible 

transitioning service members participate in many components of 

TAP; DOD’s annual goal is for 90 percent of eligible separating 

service members to attend the mandatory TAP components.42

• The Post 9/11 GI Bill, established in 2008 and available through VA, 

provides full tuition and fees for all public school in-state students and 

reimbursement for private institutions of higher learning for up to 

$19,198 per academic year.43 It is currently VA’s largest education 

program. Financial support provides up to 36 months of education 

benefits, which are generally payable for 15 years following release 

from active duty. Though the program distributed more than $8.5 

billion in tuition, housing, and other payments in fiscal year 2012, we 

have previously found that problems with its administration and delays 

in payment create financial challenges for student veterans.44

 

42In 2011, the Administration redesigned TAP—the first major re-design of the program 

since its inception over 20 years ago. As part of the redesign, all service members are 

required to meet career readiness standards—the completion of a set of tasks that 

demonstrate their readiness for a civilian career. In response to a congressional mandate, 

GAO is in the process of assessing DOD’s implementation of the program redesign. Pub. 

L. No. 112-56, § 226, 125 Stat. 711, 719 (2011).

We 

made recommendations to VA to address these problems, and VA 

has taken steps to respond to those recommendations, including 

efforts related to educating student veterans about education benefits 

prior to enrollment and working with postsecondary schools to identify 

information to facilitate timely access to other sources of federal 

financial aid while VA benefits were processed. Additional benefits are 

also available to veterans with higher expenses through the “Yellow 

Ribbon Program.” 

43Amount is for academic year 2013-2014 for individuals who are eligible for the full 

benefit level.

44GAO, VA Education Benefits: VA Needs to Improve Program Management and Provide 

More Timely Information to Students, GAO-13-338 (Washington, D.C.: May 22, 2013).
 

Page 35 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

• Education offers grants, work-study funds, and low interest loans to 

help cover expenses such as tuition and fees, books and supplies, 

and room and board, as well as other related expenses. Schools that 

offer training in aviation-related fields are eligible for this funding. (See 

table 5 for information on the number of students majoring in aviationrelated fields receiving aid and the total amount of aid received.) We 

did not identify any funding sources that specifically targeted the 

selected aviation professions discussed in this report.

Table 5: Number of and Amount of Aid Disbursed to Students Majoring in AviationRelated Fields Receiving Federal Aid, 2011–2012

Mechanical, electrical, and 

aerospace engineering Aircraft mechanics and avionics

Recipients Total Amount Recipients Total amount

Federal 

grants

90,581 $724 million 142,708 $918 million

Federal work 

study 

30,583 $180 million 6,438 $47 million

Federal loans 120,740 $1.6 billion 114,564 $1.3 billion

Source: GAO analysis of Education data.

Notes: Federal loans do not include Plus Loans.

Education categorizes all degree programs through a CIP code which can be matched to a SOC 

code. This relationship indicates that educational programs classified in the CIP category prepare 

individuals directly for jobs classified in the SOC. For this data source, the National Postsecondary 

Student Aid Study (NPSAS), only 4 of the 6 digits of the CIP code are used. As a result, programs 

may be classified at a higher level and include related programs. With regard to aircraft mechanics 

and avionics, the CIP code used (47.06) includes programs related to vehicle maintenance and 

repair, such as automotive mechanics and engine mechanics. For electrical engineering, the CIP 

code used (14.10) includes programs related to telecommunications and optical engineering. The CIP 

codes used for mechanical (14.19) and aerospace (14.02) engineering did not have any additional 

programs associated with them.

• DOL: Under the Workforce Investment Act of 1998 (WIA) 

administered by DOL45

 

45Pub. L. No. 105-220, 112 Stat. 936 (1998). 

, training services are available to eligible 

individuals who meet requirements for services—including training to 

become an aerospace engineer, aircraft mechanic, or avionics 

technician. To be eligible for training support, individuals must first 

participate in what are considered core services—job search and 

placement assistance—and intensive services—individual 
 

Page 36 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

employment and career plans. WIA does not specify an amount of 

time one must spend or the number of attempts one must make to 

gain employment before moving to the next level in the sequence of 

services, and the state-level administrators of the moneys have 

discretion on how much is spent on training relative to other services. 

Due to the limited sum of money available, WIA requires that 

individuals receiving training funds be unable to obtain grant funding 

from other sources to pay the cost of training.46 According to DOL, 

workforce counselors encourage those interested to seek support 

from other sources (including VA and Education) prior to seeking WIA 

training funds. WIA funds were used in whole or in part to support 

training in aviation-related fields for more than 2,000 individuals from 

2010 through 2012.47

DOL also provides grant moneys to various entities that support 

aviation-related training. For example, since 2011, through its Trade 

Adjustment Assistance Community College and Career Training Grant 

Program, DOL has provided more than $55 million to community 

colleges in California, Idaho, Kansas, Michigan, and Washington to 

support training in aviation manufacturing and machining, composites, 

and engineering technology. Through DOL’s H-1B Technical Skills 

Training and Job Accelerator Innovation Challenge Grant Programs, 

DOL has provided more than $14.5 million to universities and 

localities to provide aerospace and aviation-related education, 

training, and job placement assistance directly related to high-growth 

occupations for which employers are currently using the H-1B 

nonimmigrant visa program to hire foreign workers and to support 

regional development.

 

46As part of the eligibility conditions for WIA-supported training services, individuals must 

be unable to obtain grant assistance from other sources to pay the costs of such training, 

including Welfare-to-Work, state-funded training funds, Trade Adjustment Assistance, and 

Federal Pell Grants established under title IV of the Higher Education Act of 1965, or 

require WIA assistance in addition to other sources of grant assistance, including Federal 

Pell Grants. 20 C.F.R. § 663.310(d). DOL does not collect information on the total amount 

of WIA resources expended on training.

47From 2010 through 2012, 269 individuals received funding for avionics technician 

training, 1,527 for aircraft mechanics and service technician training, 134 for aerospace 

engineering training, and 296 for aerospace engineering and operations technician 

training. During that time, a total of 691,343 individuals with associated information on 

occupation of training received training supported, in whole or part, by WIA funds.
 

Page 37 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Despite the availability of these programs, most employers and 

stakeholders we interviewed told us that maintaining a qualified aviation 

professional workforce will be more difficult in the future due to changes 

in K-12 education, a perceived emphasis on earning a 4-year degree, and 

the perceived decreased desirability for working in aviation, particularly 

aviation maintenance. Several employers cited the absence of vocational 

and “shop” classes in high school as a reason interest and critical 

knowledge in maintenance are waning. Several employers and 

stakeholders we interviewed also said that with parents and counselors 

insisting that a college degree is needed for every job, students may not 

be aware that there are well-paying professions that do not require a 4-

year degree. FAA echoed this sentiment in describing the challenges of 

AVSED. According to AVSED, it can be difficult to interest students in 

aviation maintenance careers because it is mistakenly perceived to be a 

low paying, low skilled occupation. To combat this perception, according 

to stakeholders, AVSED and industry must find a means to convince 

parents and guidance counselors that not all well-paying careers require 

a bachelor’s degree. Several employers and stakeholders also noted that 

aviation used to be a more “exciting” industry, which attracted people 

even though wages were often lower than other, similar industries. Events 

of the last decade—including September 2001 and airline bankruptcies 

and mergers—also have resulted in the aviation industry being viewed as 

unstable, compared to other industries.

Employers and stakeholders we spoke with did not agree about how to 

encourage entry into aviation occupations. Some suggested that FAA 

should do more to champion the industry and increase its outreach and 

educational efforts. Others suggested that by providing subsidies or tax 

credits, government could incentivize students to enter aviation fields and 

businesses to hire them. However, others maintained that government 

should not have a role and that it was an issue for industry to address. 

One company suggested that companies could sponsor students in 

exchange for an agreement that, upon graduation, they would work for a 

specified period of time for that company. Aerotek, a staffing solutions 

company that focuses on aviation, recently instituted a similar program 

when it collaborated with two aviation maintenance schools in Canada to 

train workers. According to Aerotek, it participated in the curriculum 

design to include topics its clients seek and guaranteed the classes would 

be full. Students who complete the program are then guaranteed 

employment. Aerotek estimated that it trained between 600 and 700 

employees in this way.
 

Page 38 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

We provided a draft of this report to the departments of Defense (DOD), 

Education (Education), Labor (DOL), and Transportation (DOT) for review 

and comment. We received technical comments on this report from 

Education, DOL, and DOT which were incorporated as appropriate. DOD 

did have any comments on the report.

We are sending copies to the appropriate congressional committees, the 

Secretaries of Defense, Education, Labor, Transportation, and interested 

parties. In addition, this report will be available at no charge on the GAO 

website at http://www.gao.gov. 

If you or your staff have any questions about this report, please contact 

me on (202) 512-2834 or at dillinghamg@gao.gov. Contact points for our 

Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on 

the last page of this report. Key contributors to this report are listed in 

appendix II.

Gerald L. Dillingham, Ph.D.

Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues 

Agency Comments
 

Page 39 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

List of Requesters

The Honorable John Thune

Ranking Member 

Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation 

United States Senate

The Honorable Bill Shuster

Chairman

Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure

House of Representatives

The Honorable Frank A. LoBiondo

Chairman

Subcommittee on Aviation

Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure

House of Representatives

The Honorable John L. Mica

House of Representatives

The Honorable Thomas Petri

House of Representatives
Appendix I: Objective, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 40 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Our report focuses on the supply of and demand for individuals in three 

selected aviation professions–aerospace engineers, aircraft mechanics, 

and avionics technicians–which are involved in the design, manufacture, 

and repair of aircraft and have been the subject of concerns voiced by 

industry stakeholders. In this report, we examined: (1) what available data 

and forecasts reveal about the need for and potential availability of 

aerospace engineers, aircrafts mechanics, and avionics technicians and 

(2) what actions industry and the federal government are taking, if any, to 

help attract and retain these professionals.

To determine what available data reveal about the current need for and 

availability of these professionals, we reviewed relevant economic 

literature that describe labor market conditions,1 developed a summary of 

the general economic principles for evaluating labor market conditions, 

and identified relevant data sources. Economic literature states that no 

single measure exists to determine whether a labor shortage exists; 

however, one can look at multiple indicators— including unemployment 

rates, employment numbers, and earnings—that might converge to 

suggest either the presence or absence of a shortage.2 We obtained 

these data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Population 

Survey for years 2000 through 2012.3

 

1

See Burt S. Barnow, John Trutko, and Jaclyn Piatak, “Conceptual Basis for Identifying 

and Measuring Occupational Labor Shortages,” in Occupational Labor Shortages: 

Concepts, Causes, Consequences, and Cures. (Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for 

Employment Research, 2013) 1-3;4 and Malcolm S. Cohen Labor Shortages: As America 

Approaches the Twenty-First Century (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1995). 

In 2010 BLS adopted the updated 

Standard Occupational Classifications (SOC) titles and, as a result, some 

occupation’s names changed during the time period we examined. We 

used SAS, a statistical software application, to connect data for 2000–

2010 and 2011–2012 by the SOC titles and did not include occupations 

for which no exact job title match existed between the two time periods; 

2

In the absence of a universally agreed upon definition we have defined a labor shortage 

in the same terms that have been used in economic literature, including a Bureau of Labor 

statistics (BLS) publication.

3

The Current Population Survey, a monthly household survey conducted by the Bureau of 

the Census for the BLS, provides a comprehensive body of information on the 

employment and unemployment experience of the nation’s population, classified by age, 

sex, race, and a variety of other characteristics.

Appendix I: Objective, Scope, and 

Methodology
Appendix I: Objective, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 41 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

this did not affect our occupations of interest.4 We analyzed how these 

indicators have changed over time, and whether these indicators suggest 

a labor shortage–that is, whether there appears to be an imbalance 

between the labor supply (i.e., available people) and demand (i.e., 

available jobs). We analyzed each occupation relative to all other 

occupations and using an absolute scale with benchmarks developed in 

previous economic analysis.5 For the unemployment rate we looked at 

the average unemployment rate for each occupation from 2000 through 

2012.6 For both employment and earnings we analyzed any change from 

2000 through 2012.7 To verify our results, we discussed them with 

Malcolm Cohen, PhD, labor economist and author of the original indicator 

analysis.8

 

4

BLS adopted the modified SOC titles in 2010 and as a result, some occupations were 

combined and others were phased out. While this did not affect our occupations, it 

affected the total number of occupations. We excluded those occupations for which the 

name changed. We also excluded occupations that had any years where the sample size 

was too small (i.e., under 50,000 observations) to report unemployment, median weekly 

earnings, or employment. This resulted in 288, 490, and 250 occupations in

unemployment rate, employment, and earnings, respectively. 

We incorporated his comments as appropriate. Finally, we 

summarized limitations with the data with respect to how we used them. 

To assess the reliability of BLS’s CPS data we reviewed documentation 

related to the data sources from prior GAO reports and BLS’s technical 

documentation about the quality of the data. We determined the data 

were sufficiently reliable for the purposes of our indicator analysis to 

provide context on the labor market.

5

Cohen developed a scale with seven categories to more easily synthesize results from 

the indictors. Each occupation’s indicators were assigned a numerical value from 1 to 7. 

Categories were developed by looking at the distribution of the results and setting natural 

groupings (e.g. distinguishing between positive and negative employment growth). A rank 

of “7” designates the indicator is consistent with a labor shortage and a “1” designates the 

indicator is consistent with a labor surplus. 

6

As part of a sensitivity analysis we also compared data since 2003, in addition to 

developing a regression line for both time periods. Performing multiple analyses with 

different comparison years allowed us to ensure that a year with unique results would not 

impact our analysis. 

7

Similar to the unemployment rate we also looked at data since 2003 as well. Finally, we 

adjusted earnings for inflation and only included full-time non-farm workers.

8 Malcolm S. Cohen, President of Employment Research Corporation, received his PhD in 

economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1967. He has directed 

numerous labor market research and forecasting studies for the U.S. Department of 

Labor. He testifies as an expert witness in various court proceedings on economic loss, 

discrimination and other employment issues.
Appendix I: Objective, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 42 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

To identify future demand for, supply of, or employment projections for 

individuals in our selected aviation professions, we performed a literature 

review of scholarly material, government reports, and books, among 

others; identified any projections for aviation professional occupations; 

and analyzed results that projected demand in the United States (or North 

America) using databases that included ProQuest, WorldCat, and 

LexisNexis. We identified three studies—one performed by the federal 

government (BLS) and two performed by industry (the Boeing Company 

and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO))–and obtained 

the most recent analysis for each.9

To identify trends in sources of supply for individuals in our selected 

aviation professions we obtained data through 2012 from sources that 

supply such professionals. We analyzed the Department of Education’s 

(Education) data on annual completions by major since academic year 

2000–2001; data from the Department of Defense (DOD) on service 

members separating from the military since fiscal year 2000; and the 

Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) data on the number of people 

annually obtaining airframe and power plant (A&P) certificates since 

2000.

 To understand these projections, we 

reviewed the processes, methodologies, and sources of information used 

to make the projections. We also discussed the projections with the staff 

that performed each study. We did not verify the data that the companies 

collected and used in making their projections. We also described, based 

on economic literature, why forecasting these factors generally includes a 

great deal of uncertainty.

10

• Education: To describe national trends in number of completions in 

aviation-related majors we analyzed data from Education’s Integrated 

 Specifically:

 

9

For BLS we summarized employment projections from 2012 through 2022. The ICAO 

study forecasted future employment demand and the available supply of maintenance 

personnel based on existing training capacity, but did not produce a projected rate of 

growth. The Boeing study projected employment for personnel employed to maintain 

commercial aircraft. We were unable to assess the reliability of these studies due to a lack 

of sufficient information about their methods and assumptions. For more information on 

these forecasts see the International Civil Aviation Organization, Global and Regional 20-

year Forecasts: Pilots, Maintenance Personnel, and Air Traffic Controllers (2011) and the 

Boeing Company Current Market Outlook, 2013–2032 (Boeing, 2013). 

10DOD could not provide data on the number of service members separating from all 

branches of the military before fiscal year 2000. To allow for comparisons across all years, 

we only reported data since fiscal year 2001. 
Appendix I: Objective, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 43 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). We used 

Education’s Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) and 

matched degree codes to our SOC codes to identify the relevant 

degree programs. Specifically, the CIP-SOC relationship indicates 

that programs classified in the CIP category prepare individuals 

directly for jobs classified in the SOC category. Our analysis of IPEDS 

data included all schools that reported enrollment data in these fields.

• DOD: To better understand the role of the U.S. military as a source for 

our selected professions, we obtained data on service members 

separating from the armed forces (i.e., the Navy, Army, Air Force, and 

Marine Corps); the current number of aviation maintenance workers in 

the military; and forecasted rates of separation for maintenance 

workers. 11

• FAA: To better understand trends in the number of new A&P 

certificates issued and age distribution of current certificate-holders, 

we obtained data from FAA on A&P certificates issued from 2000 

through 2012, by the type of training the certificate-holder received. 

We also obtained data from FAA on A&P certificate-holders as of July 

2013 and, using STATA, developed descriptive statistics, including 

the distribution of certificates held by age and the total number of 

certificates held by those age 70 or younger. The database in which 

certificate-holder information is stored maintains records on 

individuals until FAA is informed of their death. To better estimate the 

number of active A&P mechanics, we excluded individuals over the 

age of 70.

We also interviewed military officials at the Pentagon to 

understand how separation trends in the future might compare to past 

trends. Data for aircraft mechanics includes avionics technicians. 

DOD was unable to provide data on aerospace engineers.

To assess the reliability of Education, DOD, and FAA data we reviewed 

documentation related to these data sources from our prior reports, and 

agencies’ websites, and interviewed knowledgeable government officials 

about the quality of the data. After analysis, we determined that the data 

were sufficiently reliable to provide general trends in the sources of 

supply of individuals in the selected aviation professions.12

 

11Data from DOD are current as of June 17, 2013.

We 

12Due to concerns regarding how DOD calculates its rate of workers leaving the military 

and how rates varied across each branch we did not report this information. Rather we 

reported the number of people instead.
Appendix I: Objective, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 44 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

supplemented data with interviews from government, industry, 7 select 

aviation engineering, maintenance, and avionics training programs, and 

unions representing aviation professionals. Schools were selected to 

provide a range of perspectives in location, size, and type of program. 

Where possible we selected schools in cities where we interviewed 

employers. Information collected from these interviews is not 

generalizable.

To supplement these broader trends, we selected 23 employers from 

FAA’s list of certificated repair stations and air carriers—including original 

equipment manufacturers (manufacturers), air carriers, and maintenance, 

repair, and overhaul facilities (repair stations)—across the United States 

to understand the extent to which specific employers experienced 

difficulty attracting and retaining workers and any actions that have been 

taken. (For a complete list of employers, see table 6.) We selected 

companies based on consideration of several factors, including the total 

number of mechanics and repairpersons employed, the ratio of A&P–

certificated mechanics to non-certificated mechanics, type of work 

performed, and geographic location. We limited our scope to employers 

located within the United States. To develop our list of actions that 

employers may take to mitigate labor shortages, we reviewed economic 

literature and interviewed the authors.13 Using semi-structured interviews, 

we asked all employers whether they had used each action mentioned in 

economic literature to attract and retain personnel and, if they had taken 

that action, the purpose for doing so.14

 

13Barnow, Trutko, and Piatak, “Identifying and Measuring Occupational Labor Shortages.” 

We also asked employers about 

the extent to which they expect hiring and retention to improve or become 

more difficult in the future. We then performed a content analysis of our 

interviews to summarize the extent to which these actions were taken 

across companies. We completed 19 of the 23 interviews in person 

during site visits to 7 states—California, Georgia, Maryland, North 

Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, and Virginia. The findings from our interviews 

with selected employers should not be used to make generalizations 

about the views of all employers; however, employers’ observations 

14Barnow, Trutko, and Piatak, “Identifying and Measuring Occupational Labor Shortages.” 

These actions include increasing recruiting efforts, increasing the use of overtime, 

reducing the minimum qualifications for the job, restructuring the work to use current or 

new employees in other occupations, substituting machinery and equipment for labor, 

training workers for jobs, improving working conditions, offering bonuses to new 

employees, improving wages and fringe benefits, contracting out the work, and turning 

down work.
Appendix I: Objective, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 45 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

related to their ability to fill job vacancies are a component of analyses 

that seek to corroborate the existence of an occupational labor shortage. 

As such, the information gathered in these interviews sought to 

supplement analyses of national-level labor market data with employer 

experiences.

Table 6: Selected Employers, Location, Type of Interview, and Type of Employer 

Employer Location selected Type of employer Method of interview

AAR Aircraft Services, Incorporated Indianapolis, IN Repair station Phone

Aviation and Defense, Inc. San Bernardino, CA Repair station In person

Capital Aviation Instrument 

Corporation

Manassas, VA Repair station In person

Century Flight Systems, Inc. Mineral Wells, TX Repair station In person

Certified Aviation Services Ontario, CA Repair station In person

Delta Airlines Atlanta, GA Repair station and airline In person

Epps Air Service Atlanta, GA Repair station In person

Excel Aviation Gainesville, TX Repair station In person

FedEx Express Los Angeles, CA and 

Memphis, TN

Repair station and airline Phone

Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation Long Beach, CA Repair station and 

manufacturer

In person

Hawker Beechcraft Atlanta, GA Repair station and 

manufacturer

In person

Jet Works Air Center Management, 

LLC

Denton, TX Repair station In person

King Aerospace Ardmore, OK Repair station In person

Lockheed Martin Aircraft Center Greenville, SC Manufacturer Phone

Piedmont Airlines, Inc. Salisbury, MD Airline In person

Precision Electronics Atlanta, GA Repair station In person

Rockwell Collins Inc. Atlanta, GA Repair station In person

Signature Flight Support Dulles, VA Repair station In person

Southwest Airlines Dallas, TX Airline In person

Texas Pneumatic Systems, Inc. Arlington, TX Repair station In person

TIMCO Aviation Services Greensboro, NC Repair Station In person

The Boeing Company Renton, WA Manufacturer Phone

West Coast Aircraft Maintenance Long Beach, CA Repair station In person

Source: GAO analysis of FAA data.

Note: Many of the companies we interviewed have repair stations in multiple locations. When 

possible, we sought to gather information about each of their locations or differences between 

locations during our interviews.
Appendix I: Objective, Scope, and 

Methodology

Page 46 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

To understand the federal government’s role, including funding provided 

for aviation-related training, and any actions government has taken to 

support the aviation industry and our selected aviation professions, we 

identified the relevant federal agencies through interviews with 

stakeholders, analysis of our prior reports, and a literature review. The 

identified agencies were: FAA, DOD, Veterans Affairs, and DOL. We 

interviewed officials to understand the programs each agency operates 

that either target the specific occupations or could be used to support the 

occupations. We also examined relevant programs, laws, and regulations. 

For DOD’s aircraft–maintenance certification program and for DOL’s 

Workforce Investment Act-supported training, the respective agencies 

provided us with the number of individuals that participated in or 

completed the program. To describe federal student aid awarded to 

students enrolled in aviation-related majors we analyzed data from 

Education’s National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS) 2011-

2012—a survey of a nationally representative sample of students. NPSAS 

is a comprehensive study that examines how students and their families 

pay for higher education; data are based on administrative records and 

student interviews and include students who received financial aid and 

those who did not. Similar to our analysis of IPEDS data, we used 

Education’s CIP categories and matched degree programs to our SOC 

codes of interest to identify the relevant degree programs. Unless noted, 

all estimates from NPSAS are within 5 percentage points.

We conducted this performance audit from February 2013 through 

February 2014 in accordance with generally accepted government 

auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the 

audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable 

basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We 

believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our 

findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.
Appendix II: GAO Contacts and Staff 

Acknowledgments

Page 47 GAO-14-237 Aviation Workforce

Gerald L. Dillingham, Ph.D., (202) 512-2834 or dillinghamg@gao.gov

In addition to the contact named above, the following individuals made 

important contributions to this report, Andrew Von Ah, Assistant Director; 

Amy Abramowitz; Melissa Bodeau; Benjamin Bolitzer; Russ Burnett; Leia 

Dickerson; David Hooper; John Mingus; Susan Offutt; Joshua Ormond; 

Melissa Swearingen; and Jessica Wintfeld.

Appendix II: GAO Contacts and Staff 

Acknowledgments

GAO Contact

Staff 

Acknowledgments

(540259)
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