Fax: (609) 292-7695 

April 1, 2009 

The Honorable George Pavlou 

Acting Regional Administrator 

United States Environmental Protection Agency – Region 2 

290 Broadway- 26th Floor 

New York, New York 10007-1866 

Dear Acting Regional Administrator Pavlou: 

 

The purpose of this letter is to provide you with New Jersey’s recommendations for 

ozone nonattainment area boundaries for the 0.075 ppm ozone National Ambient Air Quality 

Standard (NAAQS). Ambient air quality data indicates the entire State should be designated as 

not meeting the health standard. Further, USEPA analyses1

 indicate that 11 states significantly 

contribute to unhealthy ozone air quality in New Jersey at the old 0.08 ppm standard. New 

Jersey’s recommendations are summarized below. 

New Jersey recommends that the USEPA consider a large regional nonattainment area, 

including the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, 

North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia (See Factor 10 of Enclosure 1). 

 If ultimately the USEPA chooses not to embrace this regional approach, the State 

recommends the 0.075 ppm 8-hour ozone nonattainment area boundaries be the same as the 

existing 0.08 ppm 8-hour boundaries. The USEPA’s traditional “Nine Factor Analysis” supports 

this option (See Enclosure 2). 

• Designate the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) nonattainment area 

the same as that for the 0.08 ppm 8-hour ozone standard to include Bergen, Essex, Hudson, 

Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren 

counties in New Jersey; and 

• Designate the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) nonattainment area 

the same as that for the 0.08 ppm 8-hour ozone standard to include Atlantic, Burlington, 

Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Mercer, Ocean, and Salem counties in New 

Jersey. 

 

1

 See Factor 10 of New Jersey’s analysis 

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

JON S. CORZINE P.O. BOX 402 MARK N. MAURIELLO

 Governor Trenton, NJ 08625-0402 Acting Commissioner

Phone: (609) 292-2885 

New Jersey is an Equal Opportunity Employer l Printed on Recycled Paper and Recyclable 

Enclosure 1 

Recommended Regional 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Boundaries 

Connecticut
Enclosure 2 

Recommended New Jersey 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Boundaries 

The New Jersey Portion of a NY-NJ-CT Nonattainment Area

The New Jersey Portion of a PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area
Enclosure 3 

Designation of Nonattainment Areas in New Jersey for the 

2008 Revised Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards 

Ten Factor Analysis 

March 12, 2009 
2

Ten Factor Analysis for the Designation of Nonattainment Areas in New Jersey for 

the 2008 Revised Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards 

Introduction

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) revised the Ozone 

National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) on March 12, 2008.1

 The primary 

ozone standard was lowered from 0.08 parts per million (ppm) to 0.075 ppm. The 

secondary standard was strengthened to make it equal to the primary standard. 

According to Section 107(d)(1)(A) of the Federal Clean Air Act (42 U.S.C. §

 7407 (d)(1)(A)), states have one year from the time the new standard is effective to 

submit a recommendation for designating nonattainment areas to the USEPA for 

consideration. The USEPA then has one year to issue the final nonattainment area 

designations. 

The USEPA issued guidance for determining the boundaries of ozone nonattainment 

areas on December 4, 2008.2

 The analysis is based on an evaluation the following nine 

factors: 

• Air quality data 

• Emissions data 

• Population density and degree of urbanization 

• Traffic and commuting patterns 

• Growth rates and patterns 

• Meteorology 

• Geography/topography 

• Jurisdictional boundaries 

• Level of control of emission sources 

The USEPA finalized attainment/nonattainment designations for the 1997 8-hour ozone 

NAAQS on June 15, 2004. The entire state of New Jersey is associated with two multistate nonattainment areas, the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) 

nonattainment area and the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) 

nonattainment area. The NY-NJ-CT nonattainment area includes the New Jersey 

counties of: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, 

Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren. The PA-NJ-DE-MD nonattainment area includes 

the New Jersey counties of: Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, 

Gloucester, Mercer, Ocean, and Salem. 

New Jersey considered the composition of the existing ozone nonattainment areas in its 

analysis to determine if there should be any changes to these areas due to current data. 

The NJDEP recommends that the areas designated as nonattainment areas under the 1997 

8-hour ozone standard also be designated the 2008 revised ozone nonattainment areas. 

 

1

 73 Fed. Reg. 16436 (March 27, 2008). 2

 December 4, 2008 Memorandum from Robert J. Meyers on “Area Designations for the 2008 Revised 

Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards.” 
3

New Jersey Recommendations for Designation 

Multi-State Ozone Nonattainment Areas

PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area 

NY-NJ-CT Nonattainment Area 
4

Ten Factor Analysis for Determining Nonattainment Area Boundaries 

in Designations for the 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS 

Factor 1: Air Quality Data

The air quality analysis is an examination of ozone air quality monitoring data, including 

the daily design value calculated for each area based on air quality data for a 3-year 

period. Design values for 2005-2007 and 2006-20083

 were analyzed for this factor. 

Table 1-A: Ozone Design Values for the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long 

Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area4

County O3 2005 - 2007 

Design Value (ppm) 

Met NAAQS 

(0.075 ppm) 2005-

2007? 

O3 2006 - 2008 

Design Value 

(ppm) 

Met NAAQS 

(0.075 ppm) 

2006 - 2008? 

Fairfield, CT 0.094 No 0.088 No 

Middlesex, CT 0.092 No 0.087 No 

New Haven, CT 0.093 No 0.088 No 

Bergen, NJ 0.089* No Not Available N/A 

Essex, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A 

Hudson, NJ 0.090 No 0.086 No 

Hunterdon, NJ 0.089 No 0.086 No 

Middlesex, NJ 0.091 No 0.088 No 

Monmouth, NJ 0.088 No 0.086 No 

Morris, NJ 0.086 No 0.086 No 

Passaic, NJ 0.083 No 0.079 No 

Somerset, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A 

Sussex, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A 

Union, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A 

Warren, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A 

Bronx, NY 0.075 Yes 0.076 No 

Kings, NY No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A 

Nassau, NY No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A 

New York, NY Not Available N/A Not Available N/A 

Queens, NY 0.079 No 0.077 No 

Richmond, NY 0.089 No 0.081 No 

Rockland, NY No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A 

Suffolk, NY 0.091 No 0.088 No 

Westchester, NY 0.091 No 0.086 No 

*Because a 2007 design value was not available, an average of 2005 - 2006 data is presented. 

 

3

 The 2006-2008 design values had not been certified at the time of this analysis 

4

 Source: NJDEP Bureau of Air Monitoring and USEPA 
5

All of the monitors in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) 

nonattainment area violated the new 2008 ozone NAAQS of 0.075 ppm, with the 

exception of Bronx, NY (for the 2005-2007 data). The highest design value in the 

nonattainment area is located in Fairfield, CT. The highest design value in the 

nonattainment area in New Jersey is located in Middlesex County. The preliminary 

2006-2008 design values show an overall decrease in emissions. The most significant 

decrease is in Richmond County, NY (0.009 ppm). The 2006-2008 design values show 

decreased emissions for five of the New Jersey monitors. A 2006-2008 design value was 

not available for Bergen County, and the design value stayed the same for Morris County. 

Table 1-B: Ozone Design Values for the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City 

(PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area5

County O3 2005 - 2007 

Design Value (ppm) 

Met NAAQS 

(0.075 ppm) 2005-

2007? 

O3 2006 - 2008 

Design Value 

(ppm) 

Met NAAQS 

(0.075 ppm) 

2006 - 2008? 

Bucks, PA 0.092 No 0.092 No 

Chester, PA 0.085 No 0.082 No 

Delaware, PA 0.085 No 0.083 No 

Montgomery, PA 0.086 No 0.084 No 

Philadelphia, PA 0.091 No 0.089 No 

Atlantic, NJ 0.081* No Not Available N/A 

Burlington, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A 

Camden, NJ 0.089 No 0.087 No 

Cape May, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A 

Cumberland, NJ 0.084 No 0.082 No 

Gloucester, NJ 0.087 No 0.087 No 

Mercer, NJ 0.091 No 0.087 No 

Ocean, NJ 0.092 No 0.087 No 

Salem, NJ No Monitor N/A No Monitor N/A 

Cecil, MD 0.093 No 0.090 No 

Kent, DE 0.081 No 0.081 No 

New Castle, DE 0.083 No 0.080 No 

Sussex, DE 0.082 No 0.080 No 

*Because a 2007 design value was not available, an average of 2005 - 2006 data is presented. 

All of the monitors in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) 

nonattainment area violated the new 2008 ozone NAAQS of 0.075 ppm. The highest 

design value in the nonattainment area is located in Cecil County, MD. The preliminary 

2006-2008 design values show an overall decrease in emissions. The most significant 

decrease is the Ocean County, NJ monitor (0.005 ppm). The 2006-2008 design values 

show decreased emissions for four of the New Jersey monitors. A 2006-2008 design 

value was not available for Atlantic County, and the design value stayed the same for 

Gloucester County. 

 

5

 Source: NJDEP Bureau of Air Monitoring and USEPA 
6

Factor 2: Emissions Data

The following tables show total estimated inventories, excluding biogenic emissions (in 

tons per year) for the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) and 

Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) nonattainment areas. (Data 

Source: 2002 MANE-VU Modeling Inventory). 

Table 2-A: Emissions in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJCT) Nonattainment Area 

County 2002 NOx

(tons) 

Proj. 2009 

NOx

(tons) 

02-09 % 

change 

2002 

VOC 

(tons) 

Proj. 

2009 

VOC 

(tons) 

02-09 % 

change 

Fairfield, CT 31,712 22,151 -30% 36,184 26,071 -28% 

Middlesex, CT 7,757 4,478 -42% 10,500 8,044 -23% 

New Haven, CT 29,642 19,069 -36% 34,472 26,314 -24% 

Bergen, NJ 26,840 16,862 -37% 34,703 24,607 -29% 

Essex, NJ 24,594 14,123 -43% 24,583 17,659 -28% 

Hudson, NJ 22,047 10,866 -51% 16,206 12,187 -25% 

Hunterdon, NJ 6,613 3,942 -40% 9,700 7,508 -23% 

Middlesex, NJ 26,835 16,704 -38% 33,188 25,357 -24% 

Monmouth, NJ 17,925 11,291 -37% 26,452 18,756 -29% 

Morris, NJ 15,708 9,586 -39% 24,046 17,502 -27% 

Passaic, NJ 9,836 6,019 -39% 16,648 12,505 -25% 

Somerset, NJ 10,365 6,535 -37% 15,987 12,078 -24% 

Sussex, NJ 3,799 2,495 -34% 10,268 8,356 -19% 

Union, NJ 18,850 11,746 -38% 22,723 16,941 -25% 

Warren, NJ 5,250 3,065 -42% 7,825 6,449 -18% 

Bronx, NY 16,056 11,101 -31% 23,174 16,771 -28% 

Kings, NY 28,296 21,083 -25% 39,632 31,349 -21% 

Nassau, NY 38,626 24,814 -36% 45,411 32,915 -28% 

New York, NY 40,284 30,330 -25% 38,921 32,186 -17% 

Queens, NY 42,659 27,580 -35% 42,825 33,996 -21% 

Richmond, NY 10,099 7,607 -25% 12,388 10,843 -12% 

Rockland, NY 14,165 9,072 -36% 9,820 7,293 -26% 

Suffolk, NY 64,398 39,672 -38% 73,451 49,862 -32% 

Westchester, NY 48,464 20,357 -58% 33,071 24,160 -27% 

The projected NOx emissions decrease from 34%-51% in the New Jersey counties of the 

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area. Projected VOC 

emissions decreased from 18%-29% in these counties. 
7

Table 2-B: Emissions in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DEMD) Nonattainment Area 

The projected NOx emissions decreased from 10%-61% in the New Jersey counties in 

the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City nonattainment area. Projected VOC 

emissions decrease from 15%-25% in these counties. 

County 2002 NOx

(tons) 

Proj. 

2009 NOx

(tons) 

02-09 % 

change 

2002 

VOC 

(tons) 

Proj. 

2009 

VOC 

(tons) 

02-09 

% 

change 

Bucks, PA 20,195 14,400 -29% 24,491 20,787 -15% 

Chester, PA 18,779 13,642 -27% 18,897 15,498 -18% 

Delaware, PA 23,838 20,642 -13% 18,264 15,199 -17% 

Montgomery, PA 25,341 17,906 -29% 31,587 26,162 -17% 

Philadelphia, PA 31,157 24,315 -22% 38,022 31,477 -17% 

Atlantic, NJ 8,331 5,719 -31% 16,026 12,247 -24% 

Burlington, NJ 18,522 12,233 -34% 19,915 14,860 -25% 

Camden, NJ 15,372 9,201 -40% 17,377 12,882 -26% 

Cape May, NJ 8,118 7,291 -10% 10,882 9,141 -16% 

Cumberland, NJ 6,971 5,919 -15% 8,450 6,782 -20% 

Gloucester, NJ 14,515 9,494 -35% 16,892 14,409 -15% 

Mercer, NJ 25,520 9,957 -61% 13,627 9,829 -28% 

Ocean, NJ 10,421 7,300 -30% 28,313 21,383 -24% 

Salem, NJ 6,622 4,964 -25% 5,066 4,122 -19% 

Cecil, MD 5,037 2,841 -44% 6,523 5,320 -18% 

Kent, DE 10,336 8,554 -17% 6,772 5,490 -19% 

New Castle, DE 31,544 23,104 -27% 21,148 16,180 -23% 

Sussex, DE 16,883 18,001 7% 13,200 10,438 -21% 
8

Location of Sources: 

The following tables show the number of NOx and VOC reporting facilities in each 

county in New Jersey. The information was gathered from the USEPA AirData system, 

and is from the 2002 National Emission Inventory (NEI).6

Table 2-C: NOx and VOC Facilities in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long 

Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area 

Pollutant Emissions 

(tpy) 

Percent of Total 

(NJ Emissions) 

County Number of 

Facilities 

Percent of 

Total 

Facilities 

(in NJ) NOx VOC NOx VOC 

Bergen, NJ 60 9.04 956 650 1.86 4.54 

Essex, NJ 52 7.83 2,102 579 4.09 4.04 

Hudson, NJ 37 5.57 9,783 1,375 19.04 9.59 

Hunterdon, NJ 13 1.96 491 135 0.95 0.94 

Middlesex, NJ 108 16.27 3,576 3,333 6.96 23.26 

Monmouth, NJ 18 2.71 240 150 0.47 1.05 

Morris, NJ 37 5.57 283 236 0.55 1.64 

Passaic, NJ 29 4.37 122 232 0.24 1.62 

Somerset, NJ 28 4.22 307 180 0.60 1.26 

Sussex, NJ 6 0.90 38.5 36.2 0.07 0.25 

Union, NJ 60 9.04 3,885 2,842 7.56 19.84 

Warren, NJ 11 1.66 525 471 1.02 3.29 

The largest number of NOx and VOC reporting facilities in New Jersey in the NY-NJ-CT 

nonattainment area are in Middlesex County (108), while the smallest number of 

facilities is in Sussex County (6). The county with the highest percentage of reported 

NOx emissions is Hudson. The county with the highest percentage of reported VOC 

emissions is Middlesex, followed closely by Union. The county with the lowest 

percentage of reported NOx and VOC emissions is Sussex. 

 

6

 http://www.epa.gov/air/data/geosel.html (accessed 1/22/09) 
9

Table 2-D: NOx and VOC Facilities in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City 

(PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area 

Pollutant Emissions 

(tpy) 

Percent of Total 

(NJ Emissions) 

County Number of 

Facilities 

Percent of 

Total 

Facilities 

(in NJ) NOx VOC NOx VOC 

Atlantic, NJ 13 1.96 129 44.8 0.25 0.31 

Burlington, NJ 35 5.27 1,263 595 2.46 4.15 

Camden, NJ 35 5.27 783 355 1.52 2.48 

Cape May, NJ 8 1.20 3,819 38.7 7.43 0.27 

Cumberland, NJ 21 3.16 1,761 91.9 3.43 0.64 

Gloucester, NJ 33 4.97 4,642 2,627 9.03 15.82 

Mercer, NJ 28 4.22 13,029 251 25.35 1.75 

Ocean, NJ 17 2.56 395 59.5 0.77 0.42 

Salem, NJ 15 2.26 3,263 405 6.35 2.83 

The largest number of NOx and VOC reporting facilities in New Jersey in the PA-NJ-DEMD nonattainment area are located in Burlington and Camden counties (both have 35 

facilities), followed closely by Gloucester (33 facilities) and Mercer (28 facilities). The 

county with the highest percentage of reported NOx emissions is Mercer. The county 

with the highest percentage of reported VOC emissions is Gloucester. The county with 

the lowest percentage of both NOx and VOC emissions is Atlantic, followed by Ocean.
10

Factor 3: Population/Population Density7

Table 3-A: 2007 Population/Population Density in the New York-Northern New 

Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area 

County 2007 Population 2007 Population Density 

(population per sq mi) 

Fairfield, CT 895,015 1,430 

Middlesex, CT 164,150 445 

New Haven, CT 845,494 1,396 

Bergen, NJ 895,744 3,825 

Essex, NJ 776,087 6,146 

Hudson, NJ 598,160 12,812 

Hunterdon, NJ 129,348 301 

Middlesex, NJ 788,629 2,546 

Monmouth, NJ 642,030 1,360 

Morris, NJ 488,475 1,042 

Passaic, NJ 492,115 2,656 

Somerset, NJ 323,552 1,062 

Sussex, NJ 151,478 291 

Union, NJ 524,658 5,080 

Warren, NJ 109,737 307 

Bronx, NY 1,373,659 32,683 

Kings, NY 2,528,050 35,803 

Nassau, NY 1,306,533 4,557 

New York, NY 1,620,867 70,595 

Queens, NY 2,270,338 20,783 

Richmond, NY 481,613 8,236 

Rockland, NY 296,483 1,702 

Suffolk, NY 1,453,229 1,593 

Westchester, NY 951,325 2,198 

The top three counties with the highest population in this nonattainment area are Kings, 

Queens, and New York counties. The top three counties with the highest population 

density in the nonattainment area are New York, Kings, and Bronx counties. The top 

three New Jersey counties with the highest population in the nonattainment area are 

Bergen, Middlesex, and Essex. The top three New Jersey counties with the highest 

population density in the nonattainment area are Hudson, Essex and Union. The 

population densities of the remaining New Jersey counties in the nonattainment area are 

significantly lower. The three counties with the lowest population in the nonattainment 

area are Warren, Hunterdon, and Sussex counties in New Jersey. The three counties with 

the lowest population density in the nonattainment area are Sussex, Hunterdon, and 

Warren counties in New Jersey. 

 

7

 Data Source for 2007 Population and Population Density: U.S. Census Bureau and New Jersey 

Department of Labor and Workforce Development (US Census Data Accessed 1/2/09, Dept. of Labor Data 

Accessed 1/5/09) 
11

Table 3-B: 2007 Population/Population Density in the Philadelphia-WilmingtonAtlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area 

County 2007 Population 2007 Population Density 

(population per sq mi) 

Bucks, PA 621,144 1,023 

Chester, PA 486,345 643 

Delaware, PA 554,399 3,010 

Montgomery, PA 776,172 1,607 

Philadelphia, PA 1,449,634 10,731 

Atlantic, NJ 270,644 482 

Burlington, NJ 446,817 555 

Camden, NJ 513,769 2,311 

Cape May, NJ 96,422 378 

Cumberland, NJ 155,544 318 

Gloucester, NJ 285,753 880 

Mercer, NJ 365,449 1,618 

Ocean, NJ 565,493 889 

Salem, NJ 66,016 195 

Cecil, MD 99,695 286 

Kent, DE 152,255 258 

New Castle, DE 528,218 1,239 

Sussex, DE 184,291 197 

The county of Philadelphia has the highest population and population density in the 

nonattainment area. This indicates the likelihood of population-based emissions to 

contribute to monitored violations. 

To a much lesser extent, Camden County is also more urbanized than the majority of the 

remaining counties in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City nonattainment area. 

The top three New Jersey counties with the highest population in the nonattainment area 

are Ocean, Camden, and Burlington. The top three New Jersey counties with the 

highest population density in the nonattainment area are Camden, Mercer, and Ocean. 

The three counties with the lowest population in the nonattainment area are Salem and 

Cape May counties in New Jersey and Cecil County in Maryland. The three counties 

with the lowest population density in the nonattainment area are Sussex and Kent 

counties in Delaware and Cecil County in Maryland. 
12

Factor 4: Traffic and Commuting Patterns8

The total Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) for 2005 is provided for each county in millions 

of miles. The analysis of this factor looks at the number of commuters who drive to 

major counties within the metropolitan area and counties with the highest violation 

monitors. 

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area 

Table 4-A shows the commuting patterns to the major counties in the nonattainment area, 

as well as the New Jersey counties with the highest monitored design values (Hudson and 

Middlesex). The largest number of commuters to the New Jersey counties in the New 

York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area are from counties in the New 

York City area. 

Table 4-B shows the number of commuters from the New York counties in the 

nonattainment area to the New Jersey counties in the nonattainment area. The three 

highest numbers of commuters to New Jersey counties in the nonattainment area from 

New York counties in the nonattainment area are from New York, Kings, and Rockland 

counties. The top two New Jersey counties with the highest number of commuters from 

New York counties in the nonattainment area are Bergen and Hudson. The remaining 

New Jersey counties in the nonattainment area have a significantly lower number of 

commuters from the New York counties in the nonattainment area. The two New Jersey 

counties with the lowest number of commuters from the New York counties in the 

nonattainment area are Sussex and Hunterdon counties. 

The county with the highest VMT in the nonattainment area is Suffolk County, NY. The 

two New Jersey counties with the highest VMT in the nonattainment area are Middlesex 

and Bergen counties. 

Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area 

Table 4-C shows commuting patterns to the major counties in the nonattainment area, as 

well as the New Jersey counties with the highest monitored design values (Ocean and 

Mercer) were evaluated. 

 

8

 Factor 4 Data sources: 

2005 VMT Data: USEPA, http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/pm/docs/2005_vmt_county_level.xls (Accessed 

1/14/09); 

2000 US Census Journey to Work Data: 

http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/commuting/index.html (Accessed 1/14/09) 

USEPA, “Where People Work”: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/ozone/areas/misc/work_us.htm (Accessed 

1/14/09) 
13

The highest number of commuters to a New Jersey county from a county in another state 

in the nonattainment area is from Bucks County, PA to Mercer County, NJ. There are 

also a large number of commuters from Bucks County, PA to Burlington and Middlesex 

counties. 

A smaller, but still significant, number of commuters travel from Philadelphia County, 

PA to Camden County, NJ. Philadelphia also has a large number of commuters to 

Burlington County, NJ. 

Table 4-D shows the number of commuters from the Pennsylvania counties in the 

nonattainment area to the New Jersey counties in the nonattainment area. The two 

highest numbers of commuters to New Jersey counties in the nonattainment area are from 

Bucks and Philadelphia counties. The top three New Jersey counties with the highest 

number of commuters from Pennsylvania counties in the nonattainment area are Mercer, 

Camden and Burlington. The three New Jersey counties with the lowest number of 

commuters from Pennsylvania counties in the nonattainment area are Ocean, 

Cumberland, and Salem counties. Cape May County also has a low number of 

commuters from the Pennsylvania counties in the nonattainment area. 

Philadelphia County, PA has the highest VMT in the nonattainment area, followed by 

Monmouth County, NJ. 

Based on review of the commuting pattern data from both nonattainment areas, there is 

not a significant pattern of commuting between the New York-Northern New JerseyLong Island nonattainment area and the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City 

nonattainment area.
14

Table 4-A: Commuting Patterns in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonatta

County VMT (Millions) #Commuters to 

New York, NY 

#Commuters to Bronx, 

NY 

# Commuters to 

Hudson, NJ 

#Commuter

Middlesex, 

Fairfield, CT 7,648.71 24,831 1,258 344 71 Middlesex, CT 1,786.21 158 5 6 17 New Haven, CT 6,947.70 1,584 183 11 40 Bergen, NJ 9,123.92 61,253 5,353 25,444 4,149 Essex, NJ 5,611.09 28,076 782 16,193 9,717 Hudson, NJ 2,543.18 58,423 1,214 121,352 5,476 Hunterdon, NJ 928.70 1,176 7 581 4,133 Middlesex, NJ 8,014.09 25,765 355 8,706 201,811 Monmouth, NJ 6,229.76 22,425 313 6,165 30,146 Morris, NJ 5,397.82 11,516 268 4,806 4,263 Passaic, NJ 3,302.32 8,402 473 6,468 2,216 Somerset, NJ 2,702.02 6,243 87 2,203 26,794 Sussex, NJ 888.93 1,449 94 1,137 734 Union, NJ 4,704.31 16,305 417 8,251 26,504 Warren, NJ 1,342.37 562 5 311 1,366 Bronx, NY 4,720.60 159,664 168,903 2,515 518 Kings, NY 4,899.46 341,155 11,365 2,927 1,759 Nassau, NY 11,919.85 94,485 6,274 1,653 345 New York, NY 4,378.20 631,132 20,775 5,541 1,847 Queens, NY 7,838.83 346,268 18,373 4,215 1,182 Richmond, NY 2,002.10 53,249 1,095 3,017 2,929 Rockland, NY 2,731.10 17,025 6,245 1,007 300 Suffolk, NY 19,814.88 41,121 2,614 624 157 Westchester, NY 9,166.01 79,643 27,053 1,131 236 
15

Table 4-B: Commuters from the New York Counties in the NY-NJ-CT Nonattainment Area to the New Je

NY-NJ-CT Nonattainment Area 

 New Jersey Counties in the NY-NJ-CT Nonattainment Area

Bergen 

Essex 

Hudson 

Hunterdon 

Middlesex 

Monmouth 

Morris 

Passaic 

Somerset 

Bronx 4,366 1,141 2,515 23 518 69 328 569 146 Kings 3,345 2,341 5,927 76 1,759 579 812 579 515 Nassau 1,337 426 1,653 5 345 88 235 207 76 New York 7,258 2,876 5,541 106 1,847 291 1,413 940 442 Queens 4,275 1,944 4,215 10 1,182 253 613 677 253 Richmond 1,081 1,621 3,017 73 2,929 586 589 343 582 Rockland 12,687 866 1,007 17 300 38 867 1,141 118 Suffolk 564 338 624 7 157 87 146 102 69 

New York Counties in the NY-NJ-CT 

Nonattainment Area 

Westchester 3,221 614 1,131 11 236 52 362 400 93 

Total 38,134 12,167 25,630 328 9,273 2,043 5,365 4,958 2,294 
16

Table 4-C: Commuting Patterns in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nona

County VMT (Millions) #Commuters to 

Philadelphia, PA 

#Commuters to Delaware, 

PA 

#Commuters to Mercer, 

NJ 

# Commuters to 

NJ 

Bucks, PA 5,249.59 31,892 2,754 20,812 220 Chester, PA 4,414.36 10,568 17,870 222 23 Delaware, PA 4,011.35 48,151 137,988 345 10 Montgomery, PA 7,526.57 54,576 11,758 1,298 13 Philadelphia, PA 6,499.46 429,667 21,802 1,676 86 Atlantic, NJ 3,234.23 1,359 314 274 822 Burlington, NJ 4,901.56 17,661 1,771 17,158 2,042 Camden, NJ 4,668.91 32,961 3,232 2,472 359 Cape May, NJ 909.22 711 24 124 98 Cumberland, NJ 1,264.16 618 105 64 21 Gloucester, NJ 2,621.22 13,778 3,179 764 227 Mercer, NJ 2,667.73 1,574 244 112,449 667 Ocean, NJ 3,366.62 491 118 5,865 120,741 Salem, NJ 1,012.51 615 486 126 6 Cecil, MD 1,192.63 254 373 7 8 Kent, DE 1,435.19 37 125 10 0 New Castle, DE 5,674.40 5,386 8,150 78 13 Sussex, DE 1,842.40 131 61 12 30 
17

Table 4-D: Commuters from the Pennsylvania Counties in the PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area to 

Counties in the PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area 

 New Jersey Counties in the PA-NJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area 

Atlantic 

Burlington 

Camden 

Cape May 

Cumberland 

Gloucester 

Mercer 

Ocean 

Salem 

Bucks 172 4,250 2,039 54 42 362 20,812 220 37 Chester 73 426 539 81 24 411 222 23 155 Delaware 231 1,306 2,287 118 103 1,251 345 10 245 Montgomery 181 1,559 1,844 95 66 405 1,298 13 59 

Pennsylvania Counties in the PANJ-DE-MD Nonattainment Area Philadelphia 831 5,087 7,196 324 140 1,502 1,676 86 84 

Total 1,488 12,628 13,905 672 375 3,931 24,353 352 580 
18

Factor 5: Expected Growth9

The following tables show an analysis of population growth from 2000-2007 and VMT 

growth from 1996-2005. 

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area

Based upon analysis of this factor, Somerset County was identified as experiencing the 

highest recent growth in the nonattainment area (from 2006-2007). The three New Jersey 

counties with the highest population growth from 2000-2007 were Somerset, Warren, and 

Hunterdon. Essex and Hudson counties experienced a slight reduction in population 

growth for both 2006-2007 and 2000-2007. 

Middlesex, Morris, Bergen, and Warren counties experienced significant VMT growth 

from 1996-2005, while Hudson, Hunterdon, and Sussex counties experienced a 

significant reduction in VMT. 

 

 

9

Factor 5 Data Sources: 

Census Data: US Census Bureau – http://www.census.gov and New Jersey Dept. of Labor: 

http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/dmograph/est/mcd/density.htm (accessed 1/2/09); 

1996 VMT Data: USEPA; 

2005 VMT Data: USEPA, http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/pm/docs/2005_vmt_county_level.xls (Accessed 

1/14/09); 
19

Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area 

Based upon analysis of this factor, Gloucester County has been identified as the New 

Jersey county in the nonattainment area experiencing the highest recent growth (from 

2006-2007). Cape May County experienced a slight decrease in population. The top 

three New Jersey counties with the highest growth from 2000-2007 were Gloucester, 

Ocean, and Atlantic. 

Burlington, Atlantic, and Salem counties experienced significant growth in VMT from 

1996-2005 in comparison to the remainder of counties in the nonattainment area. 

Mercer and Ocean counties experienced a low to moderate reduction in VMT.
20

Table 5-A: Expected Growth of Population and VMT in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Isl

Nonattainment Area

County 2000 

Population 

2006 

Population 

2007 

Population 

Percent Growth 

(2006-2007) 

Percent 

Growth (2000-

2007) 

VMT 1996 

(Millions) 

VM

(M

Fairfield, CT 882,567 893,987 895,015 0.1% 1.41% 7,233 7Middlesex, CT 155,071 163,372 164,150 0.5% 5.85% 1,298 1New Haven, CT 824,008 843,441 845,494 0.2% 2.61% 6,275 6Bergen, NJ 884,118 893,217 895,744 0.3% 1.31% 5,993 9Essex, NJ 792,305 778,333 776,087 -0.3% -2.05% 5,643 5Hudson, NJ 608,975 599,755 598,160 -0.3% -1.78% 4,012 2Hunterdon, NJ 121,989 129,197 129,348 0.1% 6.03% 1,413 Middlesex, NJ 750,162 783,371 788,629 0.7% 5.13% 5,073 8Monmouth, NJ 615,301 641,309 642,030 0.1% 4.34% 4,407 6Morris, NJ 470,212 487,371 488,475 0.2% 3.88% 3,531 5Passaic, NJ 490,377 491,956 492,115 0.0% 0.35% 3,102 3Somerset, NJ 297,490 320,070 323,552 1.1% 8.76% 2,097 2Sussex, NJ 144,170 151,165 151,478 0.2% 5.07% 1,306 Union, NJ 522,541 524,816 524,658 0.0% 0.41% 3,582 4Warren, NJ 102,433 109,431 109,737 0.3% 7.13% 896 1Bronx, NY 1,332,650 1,371,353 1,373,659 0.2% 3.08% 6,329 4Kings, NY 2,465,326 2,523,047 2,528,050 0.2% 2.54% 12,100 4Nassau, NY 1,334,544 1,312,756 1,306,533 -0.5% -2.10% 6,800 1New York, NY 1,537,195 1,612,630 1,620,867 0.5% 5.44% 7,824 4Queens, NY 2,229,379 2,264,661 2,270,338 0.3% 1.84% 10,261 7Richmond, NY 443,728 478,876 481,613 0.6% 8.54% 1,995 2Rockland, NY 286,753 295,927 296,483 0.2% 3.39% 1,406 2Suffolk, NY 1,419,369 1,456,783 1,453,229 -0.2% 2.39% 6,913 1Westchester, NY 

923,459 948,080 951,325 0.3% 3.02% 4,895 9
21

Table 5-B: Expected Growth of Population and VMT in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (

Nonattainment Area 

County 2000 

Population 

2006 

Population 

2007 

Population 

Percent Growth 

(2006-2007) 

Percent 

Growth (2000-

2007) 

VMT 1996 

(Millions) 

VM

(M

Bucks, PA 597,635 619,407 621,144 0.3% 3.93% 3,818 5Chester, PA 433,501 486,345 478,990 -1.5% 10.49% 3,105 4Delaware, PA 550,864 553,732 554,399 0.1% 0.64% 3,638 4Montgomery, PA 

750,097 773,866 776,172 0.3% 3.48% 4,818 7

Philadelphia, PA 

1,517,550 1,453,212 1,449,634 -0.2% -4.48% 10,420 6

Atlantic, NJ 252,552 269,924 270,644 0.3% 7.16% 2,223 3Burlington, NJ 423,391 447,552 446,817 -0.2% 5.53% 3,299 4Camden, NJ 508,932 513,510 513,769 0.1% 0.95% 4,102 4Cape May, NJ 102,326 97,613 96,422 -1.2% -5.77% 673 Cumberland, NJ 146,438 154,175 155,544 0.9% 6.22% 1,096 1Gloucester, NJ 254,673 281,314 285,753 1.6% 12.20% 2,055 2Mercer, NJ 350,761 364,649 365,449 0.2% 4.19% 3,343 2Ocean, NJ 510,916 561,505 565,493 0.7% 10.68% 3,624 3Salem, NJ 64,285 65,842 66,016 0.3% 2.69% 691 1Cecil, MD 85,951 98,674 99,695 1.0% 15.99% 1,035 1Kent, DE 126,697 147,973 152,255 2.9% 20.17% 1,371 1New Castle, DE 500,265 524,735 528,218 0.7% 5.59% 4,687 5Sussex, DE 156,638 180,039 184,291 2.4% 17.65% 1,586 1
22

Factor 6: Meteorology

This factor did not play a significant role in the decision making process for either 

nonattainment area. “Climatic Data for the United States”, prepared by NOAA and dated 

November 1998 was analyzed for this factor. The data analyzed is a summary of annual 

climatic wind data for the years 1930-1996. 

Table 6-A: Prevailing Wind Direction in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long 

Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area 

Location County Prevailing Wind 

Direction 

Mean Wind Speed 

(mph) 

Peak Gust (mph) 

Bridgeport, CT Fairfield WSW 12 69 

Newark, NJ Essex NW 10 83 

Islip, NY Suffolk WNW 9 N/A 

Central Park, NY New York NW 8 64 

JFK Airport, NY Queens S 12 71 

LaGuardia Airport, NY Queens NE 13 77 

Suffolk County Air 

Force Base, NY 

Suffolk SW 9 76 

Based on an analysis of this factor, the prevailing wind direction in the New YorkNorthern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area is predominantly from the 

northwest and southwest. 

Table 6-B: Prevailing Wind Direction in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City 

(PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area 

Location County Prevailing Wind 

Direction 

Mean Wind Speed 

(mph) 

Peak Gust (mph) 

Philadelphia, PA Philadelphia SW 10 69 

Atlantic City Airport, 

NJ 

Atlantic WNW 10 81 

Trenton, NJ Mercer S 9 64 

McGuire Air Force 

Base, NJ 

Burlington WNW 7 87 

Dover Air Force Base, 

DE 

Kent SSW 7 85 

Wilmington, DE New Castle WNW 9 56 

Based on an analysis of this factor, the prevailing wind direction in the PhiladelphiaWilmington-Atlantic City nonattainment area is from the northwest and southwest. 
23

Factor 7: Geography/Topography

There are no geographical or topographical boundaries limiting air movements within the 

airshed in the areas. 

Factor 8: Jurisdictional Boundaries

The current jurisdictional boundaries for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard nonattainment 

areas are adequate for the new 2008 ozone NAAQS nonattainment areas. The areas 

include: 

For the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) nonattainment area, 

Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, 

Sussex, Union, and Warren counties in New Jersey; Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, 

Queens, Richmond, Rockland, Suffolk, and Westchester counties in New York; and 

Fairfield, Middlesex, and New Haven counties in Connecticut. 

For the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area, 

Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Mercer, Ocean, and 

Salem counties in New Jersey; Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Philadelphia 

counties in Pennsylvania; Kent, New Castle, and Sussex counties in Delaware; and Cecil 

County in Maryland. 

Factor 9: Level of Control of Emission Sources

This factor did not play a significant role in the decision making process. Emissions of 

NOx and VOC will continue to decrease because of State and Federal efforts that include 

Ozone Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT) Rules and the Federal Clean 

Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). 

Additionally, New Jersey’s PM2.5 statewide RACT rules are in the process of being 

updated which will result in additional reductions of direct PM2.5 and its precursors, SO2

and NOx, from major source categories. New Jersey is also relying upon the USEPA to 

provide sufficient emission reductions from upwind sources in order to bring the multistate nonattainment areas into attainment with the 2008 ozone health standards and 

maintain them. Emissions from upwind states are discussed further in Factor 10. 
24

Factor 10: Modeling of Regional Ozone Transport

Modeling conducted by the USEPA as a part of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) in 

2005 demonstrates that ozone transport constitutes a large portion of projected 

nonattainment in most eastern areas in 2010.10 Tables 10-A and 10-B show the CAIR 

results for the counties that were modeled in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long 

Island (NY-NJ-CT) and Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) 

Nonattainment Areas. 

Table 10-A: Percent Contribution to 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment due to 

Transport from Upwind States in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island 

(NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area 

2010 Base Nonattainment 

Counties 

2010 Base 8-Hour Ozone 

(ppb) 

Percent of 8-Hour 

Ozone due to 

Transport 

Fairfield, CT 92 80% 

Middlesex, CT 90 93% 

New Haven, CT 91 95% 

Bergen, NJ 86 38% 

Hunterdon, NJ 89 26% 

Middlesex, NJ 92 62% 

Monmouth, NJ 86 65% 

Morris, NJ 86 63% 

Richmond, NY 87 55% 

Suffolk, NY 91 52% 

Westchester, NY 85 56% 

Greater than 50% of ozone is due to transport in 9 of the 11 modeled counties in the New 

York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area. 

 

10 Technical Support Document for the Final Clean Air Interstate Rule – Air Quality Modeling. USEPA. 

March 2005. 
25

Table 10-B: Percent Contribution to 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment due to 

Transport from Upwind States in the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City (PANJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area 

2010 Base Nonattainment 

Counties 

2010 Base 8-Hour Ozone 

(ppb) 

Percent of 8-Hour 

Ozone due to 

Transport 

Bucks, PA 94 35% 

Chester, PA 85 39% 

Montgomery, PA 88 47% 

Philadelphia, PA 90 55% 

Camden, NJ 91 57% 

Gloucester, NJ 91 62% 

Mercer, NJ 95 36% 

Ocean, NJ 100 82% 

Cecil, MD 89 35% 

New Castle, DE 85 37% 

Greater than 50% of ozone is due to transport in 4 of the 10 modeled counties in the 

Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City nonattainment area. The modeled county in the 

nonattainment area with the highest percentage of ozone due to transport is Ocean 

County, NJ (82%). 

The CAIR modeling conducted by the USEPA also included information on the upwind 

areas contributing to downwind nonattainment in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR) 

counties. Tables 10-C and 10-D summarize the information from the CAIR modeling 

(Table VI-5). 
26

Table 10-C: Upwind States That Make a Significant Contribution to 8-Hour Ozone 

in Each Modeled Downwind Nonattainment County in the New York-Northern New 

Jersey-Long Island (NY-NJ-CT) Nonattainment Area11

Downwind County Upwind States 

Fairfield, CT MD/

DC 

NJ NY OH PA VA WV 

Middlesex, CT MA NJ NJ OH PA VA 

New Haven, CT MD/

DC 

NJ NY OH PA VA WV 

Bergen, NJ MD/

DC 

MI OH PA VA WV 

Hunterdon, NJ DE MD/

DC 

OH PA VA WV 

Middlesex, NJ DE MD/

DC 

MI NY OH PA VA WV 

Monmouth, NJ DE MD/

DC 

MI NY OH PA VA WV 

Morris, NJ DE MD/

DC 

MI NY OH PA VA WV 

Richmond, NY MD/

DC 

MI NJ PA VA WV 

Suffolk, NY CT DE MD/

DC 

MI NC NJ OH PA VA WV 

Westchester, NY MD/

DC 

NJ OH PA VA WV 

Note: Upwind States are listed alphabetically and not according to order of influence. 

The CAIR modeling demonstrates that the counties in the New York-Northern New 

Jersey-Long Island nonattainment area are influenced by several states outside of the 

nonattainment area. Some of the upwind states are located outside of the OTR, which 

shows that ozone transport is an issue on a broad regional scale. 

 

11 Based on several contribution metrics evaluated by the USEPA to show the magnitude of the 

contribution, the frequency of the contributions, and the relative amount of the total contribution. 
27

Table 10-D: Upwind States That Make a Significant Contribution to 8-Hour Ozone 

in Each Modeled Downwind Nonattainment County in the PhiladelphiaWilmington-Atlantic City (PA-NJ-DE-MD) Nonattainment Area12

Downwind County Upwind States 

Bucks, PA DE MD/

DC 

MI NJ OH VA WV 

Chester, PA DE MD/

DC 

MI NJ OH VA WV 

Montgomery, PA DE MD/

DC 

NJ OH WV 

Philadelphia, PA DE MD/

DC 

MI NJ OH VA WV 

Camden, NJ DE MD/

DC 

MI OH PA VA WV 

Gloucester, NJ DE MD/

DC 

MI OH PA VA WV 

Mercer, NJ DE MD/

DC 

MI NY OH PA VA WV 

Ocean, NJ DE MD/

DC 

MI NY OH PA VA WV 

Cecil, MD MI OH PA VA WV 

New Castle, DE MD/

DC 

MI NC OH PA VA WV 

Note: Upwind States are listed alphabetically and not according to order of influence. 

The CAIR modeling demonstrates that the counties in the Philadelphia-WilmingtonAtlantic City nonattainment area are influenced by several states outside of the 

nonattainment area. Some of the upwind states are located outside of the OTR, which 

shows that ozone transport is an issue on a broad regional scale. 

 

12 Based on several contribution metrics evaluated by the USEPA to show the magnitude of the 

contribution, the frequency of the contributions, and the relative amount of the total contribution.