Synthetic Fuels for Transportation: The

Future Potential of Electric and Hybrid

Vehicles

March 1982

NTIS order #PB83-126086
Synthetic Fuels

for Transportation

Background Paper #1

The Future Potential of

Electric and

Hybrid Vehicles

Prepared under contract by

W.M. Carriere, W.F. Hamilton, and L.M. Morecraft

of the General Research Corp.

OTA Background Papers are documents that contain information believed to be

usefuI to various parties. The information undergirds formal OTA assessments or is

an outcome of internal exploratory planning and evaluation. The material is usually

not of immediate policy interest such as is contained in an OTA Report or

Technical Memorandum, nor does it present options for Congress to consider.

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES

Office of Technology Assessment

Washington, D C 20510
Contractor Acknowledgment

This background paper was prepared for the Office of Technology Assessment as

background information for its study, “Synthetic Fuels for Transportation,” Much of

the analysis on which this report is based was performed for the Department of Energy

(DOE) by the General Research Corp. under the technical direction of Dr. Daniel P.

Maxfield, Analysis and Assessment Branch, Office of Transportation Programs, DOE.

Special thanks are due Dr. Maxfield for his cooperation and support in the preparation

of this report.

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 82-600500

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents,

U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402
Preface

The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), at the request of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, initiated a comparative study of automobile fuel efficiency and the technology of alternative energy sources. The assessment, “Synthetic Fuels for Transportation,” will be completed in early 1982. Included

in that analysis are the assessment of automobile engines, other vehicle systems, and

electric and hybrid vehicles.

This contractor report was prepared by the General Research Corp., under the direction of Dr. D. P. Maxfield, as technical input to the OTA study. It deals with electric

and hybrid vehicle systems and their possible benefits and impacts.

OTA does not necessarily agree or disagree with the contents of this contractor report, but feels that the material will be helpful to those who are interested in the detailed issues of electrification of transportation.

●

✎

JOHN H. GIBBONS

Director
SECTION

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE

1 SUMMARY 1

2

3

4

5

6

INTRODUCTION

ELECTRIC VEHICLE SYSTEMS

3.1 Introduction and Summary

3.2 Batteries

3.3 Drive Train

3.4 Vehicle Design

3.5 The Tradeoffs Between Range and Cost

3.6 Representative Future Electric Vehicles

References for Section 3

HYBRID VEHICLE SYSTEMS

4*1 Introduction and Summary

4.2 Vehicle Design

4.3 Representative Future Hybrid Vehicles

References for Section 4

INFRASTRUCTURE

501 Introduction and Summary

5.2 The Utility System

5*3 Charging provisions

5.4 Materials

5*5 production and Support

References for Section 5

MARKETABILITY

6.1 Summary

6.2 Vehicle Use

6.3 Market Penetration Estimates

6.4 Cost and Availability of Fuel

6.5 Incentives

References for Section 6

9

11

11

14

27

34

43

48

62

64

64

67

79

91

93

93

97

109

116

123

127

128

128

128

139

142

146

155

v
SECTION

7

PAGE

BENEFITS AND COSTS, MONETARY AND NON-MONETARY 157

7* 1 Summary

7.2 Energy

7.3 Environment

7.4 Economy

7.5 Resources

7.6 Transportation

7.7 Major Uncertainties

References for Section 7

APPENDIX ASSUMPTIONS FOR

OF ELECTRIC AND

GLOSSARY

PROJECTING WEIGHT

HYBRID VEHICLES

157

159

163

180

185

191

197

202

AND PERFORMANCE

204

211

vi
TABLES

NO.

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

309

401

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

5.1

5.2

Projected Improvements in Propulsion Batteries

Assumed Performance and Cost for Near-Term Propulsion

Batteries (to be Mass-produced by 1990)

Assumed Performance and Cost for Advanced Propulsion

(to be Mass-produced by 2000)

Cost of Electricity from Propulsion Batteries

Representative Future Electric Cars

Initial and Life-Cycle Costs of Representative FourPassenger Electric Cars

Equivalent Fuel Economies of Four-Passenger Electric Cars

Recharged from Petroleum or Coal Resources

Effect on Range of Changed Driving Conditions

Characteristics of Larger Vehicles Relative to Those of

Representative Four-Passenger Cars

Representative Future Range-Extension Hybrid Cars

Weight and Cost Breakdowns for Representative Future

Electric and Range-Extension Hybrid Cars

Initial and Life-Cycle Costs of Representative FourPassenger Range-Extension Hybrid Cars

Equivalent Fuel Economies of Four-Passenger RangeExtension Hybrid Cars Recharged from Petroleum or

Coal Resources

Projected Performance, Cost, and Fuel Use of Preliminary

Designs for High-Performance Hybrid Cars

Projected Weight and Drive Train’ Characteristics of

Preliminary Designs for High-Performance Hybrid Cars

Use of Electric Energy in Households

Regional Fuel Mix for One-Percent Electrification of

Light-Duty Vehicular Travel in 2000

vii

PAGE

20

21

22

26

50

52

55

57

60

81

82

83

84

87

89

100

107
NO.

5 . 3

5.4

5 . 5

5.6

5.7

5.8

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8

7.1

7.2

7.3

7*4

Estimated Availability of Cars and Off-Street Parking

Cost of Hardware and Installation for Electric Outlets

for Charging 50 Amps, 220 Volts

Materials in Typical US Autos, 1980 and 1990

Battery Materials Required for a Representative Fleet

of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles

Percent Increase in Primary Demand for Battery Materials

Due to Electrification of 20 Percent of Light-Duty

Vehicular Travel

Adequacy of Battery Material Resources With and Without

PAGE

111

113

117

118

120

20 Percent Electrification of Light-Duty Vehicular Travel 122

Projected Size and Composition, US Light-Duty Vehicle

Fleet

Nominal Requirements for Personal Urban Electric Cars

Long Trips (over 100 miles one-way) by Car and Light

Truck, 1972

Applications of Non-Personal Light Trucks

DOE EHV Program and Project Funding

DOE Battery R&D Funding

Projection of Annual Electric Vehicle Sales Under

Alternative Policies

Estimated Sales of EHVs to Consumers in 1983

Fuel Economy of Future Cars and Light Trucks

Summary of Fuel Use and Equivalent Fuel Economy of

Electric, Hybrid, and Conventional Four-Passenger

Subcompact Cars

National Use of Energy Without and With 20 Percent

Electrification of Light-Duty Vehicular Travel,

Quadrillion British Thermal Units Per Year

Percent Contribution of Autos and Power Plants to

Emissions Without EHVs

viii

130

134

137

139

149

150

153

154

161

162

166

168
NO.

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

7.10

7.11

7.12

7.13

7.14

A.1

A.2

A.3

A.4

A.5

A.6

Change in the SEAS Composite Pollution Indicator With

20 Percent Electrification of Light-Duty Vehicular

Travel

Vehicular Noise Level and Traffic Mix

Estimated Number of People Subjected to Urban Traffic

Noise

Impacts of 100 Percent Use of Electric Cars on Employment and Payroll, by Industry

Impacts of 100 Percent Use of Electric Cars on Total

Employment in Industries Directly Affected

Impacts of 100 percent Use of Electric Cars on Total

Payroll in Industries Directly Affected

Nominal Cumulative Cost of Imported Materials to Electrify 20 Percent of Light-Duty Vehicular Travel in the

United States

Location of Battery Material Reserves and Resources

On-the-Road Failures of Automobiles

Cost Comparison of Electric, Hybrid, and Conventional

Vehicles

Parametric Representation of Electric Vehicle Weight

Weight Parameters for Electric Vehicles

Specific Weights and Efficiencies of Propulsion Components

Road Load Parameters for Representative Future Vehicles

Battery Fractions and Weights for 4-Passenger Electric

Cars

Battery Fractions and Weights for Four-Passenger

Hybrid Cars

PAGE

170

174

175

183

184

184

185

186

192

195

205

206

207

207

208

210

ix
FIGURES

NO.

3*1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

3.10

3011

3.12

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

5.1

PAGE

The GE/Chrysler Electric Car ETV-1

Current Globe-Union Lead-Acid Electric Vehicle Battery

The

The

the

Basic Electric Drive Train

20-hp DC Motor Developed by General Electric for

DOE Electric Test Vehicle ETV-1

Schematic of the Electric Test Vehicle ETV-1

The Battery Compartment of the Electric Rabbit Built

by South Coast Technology

The Engine Compartment of the Electric Rabbit

Road Load for Near-Term Subcompact Cars

Measured Acceleration of Urban Traffic

Design Tradeoffs for Four-Passenger Electric Cars

Weight Breakdowns for Representative Near-Term FourPassenger Cars

Energy Use in Urban Driving

Basic Hybrid Configuration

The Briggs and Stratton Hybrid-Electric Car

Schematic of the Briggs and Stratton Hybrid Electric Car

Power Train of Daihatsu 1.5-ton Hybrid Truck

Schematic of DOE’s Hybrid Test Vehicle HTV-1

Annual Travel on Electricity Versus Useful Electric

Range of Hybrid Cars

Design Tradeoffs for Four-Passenger Range-Extension

Hybrid Cars

Electric Energy Required Annually to Electrify 20 Percent of Light-Duty Vehicular Travel, by Type of Fuel

Used

x

13

23

29

32

37

39

40

42

44

47

51

56

67

72

73

74

74

76

78

95
NO. PAGE

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.7

6.1

602

6.3

.

6.4

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.4

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Recharging Infrastructure

Hourly Demand and Net Dependable Capacity for a Single

Utility

Annual Capacity Available for Generating Recharge

Electricity

Regional Fuel Mix of Annual Capacity Available for

Generating Recharge Energy in 2000

Projected Use of Fuels for Recharging Electric and

Hybrid Vehicles

Percent of Recharge Energy Demand from Petroleum

Distributions of Full-Day Urban Driving Distance Reported by Major Categories of Drivers

Potential Electrification of Urban Driving by Electric

and Hybrid Cars

Gasoline, Electricity, and Consumer Price Indices,

1960 Through 1979 (average)

National Motor Fuel Consumption, 1960-1979

Petroleum Use With Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in 2010

Projected Use of Fuel for 20 Percent Electrification of

Light-Duty Vehicular Travel

Petroleum Use by Electric, Hybrid, and Conventional

Vehicles

Air Quality Projections Without EHVs

Percent Change in Air Quality With 20 Percent Electrification of Light-Duty Vehicular Travel

Measured Noise of Japanese Test Cars

Effects of Electric Cars on Urban Auto Noise and Traffic

Noise Impact

Life-Cycle Costs of Electric, Hybrid, and Conventional

Vehicles Versus Gasoline Prices

xi

98

102

103

104

106

108

132

135

143

145

158

164

165

171

172

176

177

196
NO.

7 . 9 Recent Projections of Peak Summer Demand for Electric

Power

A.1 Power Requirements for Acceleration and Cruise Versus

Test Weight

PAGE

199

209

xii
1 SUMMARY

In the electric vehicle, an electric motor replaces the conventional gasoline engine, and a storage battery replaces the gasoline

tank. The battery may be recharged from a standard electrical outlet,

thus making the vehicle independent of the gasoline pump. It is this

prospect which has primarily motivated widespread public interest, a

government program of development and demonstration, and a project at

General Motors to market mass-produced electric cars in 1985.

For the first time since the early 1900s, many expect electric

vehicles to enter the US automotive market in substantial numbers. Yet

their prospects are far from obvious. The degree to which new technology will improve the performance and cost of electric vehicles is uncertain. Sales of electric vehicles are difficult to forecast and may be

insufficient to displace many gasoline-powered vehicles, Electric utilities may generate recharge electricity in oil-fired power stations, in

part offsetting reductions in gasoline use for vehicular fuel. Overall,

electric vehicles may not compare favorably with competing alternatives

such as much-improved conventional vehicles and synthetic fuels.

In the past, electric vehicles generally have not been competitive

with gasoline-powered vehicles because they have been expensive and restricted in driving range. This has been primarily due to the weight,

cost, and limitations of the electric storage battery. Batteries available during the 1970s may be accurately likened to a gasoline tank for a

subcompact car costing over $1,000, weighing over 1,000 pounds, requiring replacement every 10,000 miles, and holding only 2 gallons. This

sort of fuel storage limits driving range to about 40 miles and adds depreciation costs of 10 cents per mile to operating expenses. Furthermore, refueling in a few minutes at any convenient service station is

not possible. Instead, recharging a storage battery usually requires 8

to 12 hours.

Major technological advances, however, appear imminent. In the

near term (before 1990), electric cars with useful ranges of 100 miles

may become available. Purchase prices, however, will probably exceed

those of comparable conventional cars by up to 75 percent, largely because of the weight, bulk, and cost of the required batteries. Overall

life-cycle costs will also exceed those of conventional cars, by perhaps

as much as 25 percent. Despite improved battery life, battery depreciation will remain high enough to offset savings expected from low maintenance costs and low electricity costs. There is a possibility, however,

that advanced battery technology which might come in the 1990s could

bring 150-mile ranges, initial prices only a third higher than those of

comparable conventional cars, and life-cycle costs which are actually

lower, even with electricity and gasoline prices (in constant dollars)

no higher than those of 1980.
Though improvements in electric motors and controllers were

assumed for these projections, the critical assumptions are longer life

and higher energy content of future batteries. Near-term batteries

which may be successfully mass-produced before 1990 include lead-acid,

nickel-iron, nickel-zinc, and zinc-chlorine systems with 2 to 3 times

more energy storage per pound than batteries available during the 1970s,

and operating lifetimes as much as 4 times longer. It is uncertain

which of these near-term candidates will succeed, however, and it is not

guaranteed that any will achieve the performance and life projected

here. More advanced batteries for the 1990s, such as improved zincchlorine systems or high-temperature lithium-metal sulfide batteries,

may be able to store 4 to 6 times the energy per pound of 1970s batteries, and last for the useful life of the vehicle. When and if such advanced batteries will be successfully developed is very uncertain.

A 100-mile range for the electric car is not only a reasonable

prospect for the later 1980s, it is also a goal which has been stated by

both the US Department of Energy and General Motors. Though enough for

most urban travel, it would probably suffice for only about 80 percent

of the total annual mileage driven by typical US cars, which are used

for long-distance travel as well as urban travel. The remaining 20 percent would be shifted to another conventional car. Thus, the electric

car which replaces the typical conventional car will probably displace

only about 80 percent of its annual petroleum use (even if no petroleum

is used to generate recharge energy) .

In multi-car households, trips beyond the capability of an electric car could usually be shifted to a conventional car with little inconvenience. Inadequacy for some 20 percent of typical travel, however,

indicates that even the 100-mile range between recharges would be an important limitation to many motorists. The hybrid-electric car relieves

this limitation by including an internal-combustion engine as well as an

electric motor and storage battery for propulsion. Electricity alone

would be used for driving within the speed and range capability of the

electric motor and battery. For more demanding driving, the engine

could be started to provide power, endurance, and quick refueling capability like that of the conventional car.

The simplest hybrid of this sort would utilize the internal combustion engine only for extending range beyond that possible using electricity alone. The necessary engine would be quite small (15-25 horsepower, just adequate for freeway cruising at speeds up to 55 mph), and

it would be started only after battery depletion during long trips. In

most urban driving the engine would not be operated at all. The rangeextension hybrid would thus provide most of the benefits of the pure

electric vehicle, yet impose no range limitation or sacrifice of mobility. Furthermore, it could be little or no more expensive than the pure

electric vehicle, because the weight and cost of the engine could be

offset by reductions in the weight and cost of the required battery.

2
Petroleum saving of the range-extension hybrid would be about the

same as that of the 100-mile electric car. That is, substitution of the

hybrid for a conventional car would reduce petroleum consumption by 80

percent (assuming no use of petroleum for generating recharge electricity) . Though its range on electricity alone would be less than that of

the all-electric vehicle, this range could be utilized on every trip,

including part of long trips which pure electric cars could not make.

The acceleration capability of electric (and range-extension

hybrid) vehicles will be low, like that of many diesel cars, but nonetheless adequate to keep up with traffic in city streets and on freeways. US motorists have often preferred higher acceleration, however,

and this can be provided by a high-performance hybrid design. In this

hybrid, slow driving would be accomplished without use of the internalcombustion engine. At the driver’s demand for high acceleration or high

speed, however, the engine would be started instantly to add the necessary extra power. An engine several times larger than that of a rangeextension hybrid is required by the high-performance hybrid to achieve

the acceleration and speed capabilities of recent full-size US sedans.

Typically, however, the weight and cost of the larger engine are more

than offset by reductions in the size of the associated electric motor

and battery. It is estimated that the initial prices for high-performance hybrids would be intermediate between the prices of conventional

cars and all-electric cars.

The reduced capability of the electric drive, however, necessitates more extensive use of the internal-combustion engine in the highperformance hybrid. As a result, the annual petroleum consumption of

such a hybrid is estimated at 30 to 60 percent that of a comparable

conventional car. In addition, the on-off mode of internal-combustion

engine operation also leads to technical problems and risks associated

with cold starts, engine longevity, and smooth driveability. Though

government development efforts are focused on the high-perfomance

hybrid, the range-extension hybrid entails substantially less technical

difficulty and risk, while offering the potential for substantially

greater petroleum saving.

Hybrids are generally expected to enter the marketplace several

years after electric vehicles. Pure electric vehicles are simpler and

less risky to develop. Moreover, hybrids cannot be successfully developed until satisfactory electric drive components and storage batteries

have been developed. Though high battery energy is less important for

hybrids, long battery life remains critical. Without it, costs of battery depreciation will be so high for either hybrid or electric vehicles

that wide market acceptance is unlikely.

The electric utility industry and electric outlets in

stitute the key elements of the infrastructure required for

garages conoperating

3
electric vehicles. So long as recharging is done late at night, existing power plants and power lines are generally adequate, though addition

of higher-capacity outlets specifically for battery recharging would be

desirable in many garages.

Electric generating capacity already existing and planned in the

US could recharge tens of millions of electric vehicles each night. The

reason for this is that at present, demand for electricity late at night

is ordinarily much less than during the peak hour of the day, which

usually occurs in the late afternoon. In 1979, US electric utilities

operated at an average power output equal to only 64 percent of their

maximum power output during the year. If 25 percent of all cars and

light trucks in the United States had been electric, recharging would

have increased average utility power output to only 68 percent of the

maximum achieved during the year. Given recharging late at night, this

increase could have been readily accommodated.

At present, few utilities have rate structures or metering and

control equipment to encourage recharging late at night. Many utilities

are moving towards peak and off-peak pricing, however, which would provide substantially lower electricity prices for late night recharging.

Utilities are also moving towards selective load control. Under this

arrangement, lower electricity prices would be given to electric vehicle

users whose battery chargers could be briefly interrupted (by remote

control) at occasional times of excessive total demand for electricity.

Until utilities offer these innovative rates, however, users of

electric vehicles are likely to begin recharging immediately at the end

of each day’s driving. This would be the most convenient method and--

under most existing rates--no more expensive. But it would add to

existing peak loads, straining available and planned generating facilities. It would also require more petroleum than recharging late at

night, when more coal-fired electric generating capability would otherwise be available to generate recharge power.

In recent years, electric utilities have avoided use of petroleumfired generating plants and installed new generating facilities using

other sources of energy. In 1979, this resulted in the use of petroleum

for only about 15 percent of all generation in the US. In many areas of

the country, utilities use little or no petroleum and so could accommodate electric vehicle recharging without any substantial additional use

of petroleum. Elsewhere, however, where utilities have a mix of facilities and fuels available, it is petroleum-fired plants which are idled

as demand drops each night; and it is these plants which would have to

be restarted to recharge electric vehicles overnight. Overall, some 30

percent of recharge energy would come from petroleum if electric vehicles were distributed uniformly in the United States in 1980. By 2000,

this figure will fall to little more than 10 percent, owing to the

greater reliance planned on non-petroleum energy sources.

4
Though much of the electricity supply infrastructure needed for

electric vehicles is already in place, some vehicles are not readily

accessible to recharging outlets. Although the data are poor, it

appears that roughly 25 percent of cars and light trucks in the US are

parked on the street overnight, rather than in a garage or carport where

electric outlets are either already available or could be installed (for

roughly $100-300). Only about half of all US cars and light trucks in

personal use are at single family housing units with off-street parking,

where electricity is most readily available. Adding electric outlets in

parking garages and parking lots may cost $400-500 per parking space, a

significant expense (though much less than the differential between the

prices of electric and conventional vehicles) . An alternative to home

recharges would be service

swaps, but this would be a

city to vehicles.

The materials supply

infrastructure required to

stations offering quick recharges or battery

much more expensive way to deliver electriindustry is also a vital component of the

support electric and hybrid vehicles. In

addition to the materials required in conventional cars, electric vehicles will demand large quantities of new materials for batteries. Expanding extraction and refining capabilities to support production of

several million electric vehicles annually in the 1990s appears feasible. Much higher levels of production, however, could bring problems.

In this context, world resources of some battery materials appear no

more abundant than world resources of petroleum. Mass production of

nickel-iron and nickel-zinc batteries, for example, could lead to substantial increases in imports of nickel and cobalt. Formation of international cartels to control supplies and prices is a possibility.

Other types of batteries, however, rely on materials which are abundantly available in the United States (lead, zinc, chlorine, lithium,

sulfur) . Moreover, once an inventory of batteries is established,

effective recycling of battery materials should drastically reduce needs

for additional new materials from either imports or domestic production.

The motor vehicle industry could produce, sell, and service electric and hybrid vehicles without drastic changes in its structure. The

major change required would be a shift of activity and employment from

service stations to battery manufacturing and sales. Though service has

often been a problem for the electric vehicles produced recently in very

small quantity by small businesses, it appears the major auto makers

have the organizations, procedures, and expertise to achieve reliable

designs, effective training of mechanics, and adequate provision of

spare parts for electric and hybrid vehicles.

The market penetration of electric and hybrid vehicles is uncertain, raising significant risks for both government and industry development programs. Existing projections of the number of electric and

hybrid vehicles in the US fleet by the year 2000 range from about one

percent all the way up to about 10 percent. At the low end of this

5
range, mass production of electric and hybrid vehicles may not be

profitable or economically viable.

Market penetration depend strongly on many uncertain factors:

o Future battery technology, and particularly the operating

life and consequent depreciation costs.

o The performance, fuel economy, and reliability of future

competing conventional cars, which are likely to improve

continually.

o The availability of liquid fuels for motor vehicles, in

eluding gasoline from domestic or imported petroleum, gasoline made from shale oil or coal, methanol, and liquified

petroleum gases (LPG).

o The cost of liquid fuels relative to the cost of living and

the cost of recharge electricity.

All these factors have important effects on the relative benefit to the

motorist of electric and hybrid vehicles which are wholly or partially

independent of liquid fuels, but considerably more expensive to buy than

comparable conventional vehicles.

For electric (but not hybrid) vehicles, marketability also depends

strongly on the value consumers attach to range between refueling or recharging, a subject about which little is known. On the one hand,

travel surveys show that on a typical day, 95 percent of all motorists

drive less than 100 miles, and 95 percent of secondary drivers (drivers

traveling least at multi-driver households) travel less than 50 miles.

On the other hand, consumer surveys show motorists attach large dollar

values to long range and quick refueling capability. (From one survey,

it appears urban motorists would pay over $4,000 extra to increase

driving range from 50 to 200 miles.)

Generally, operators of commercial vehicle fleets also indicate

demanding range requirements as well. In a few commercial applications,

however, range and speed requirements are low and driving conditions

(frequent stops and starts with long periods of idling) adversely affect

the life and fuel consumption of conventional vehicles. In these applications, such as mail delivery, utility meter reading, and servicing of

urban coin telephones, electric vehicles promise to be competitive in

the near future. Only a few percent of all commercial fleet vehicles,

however, are in such service.

The principal benefits and costs of large-scale use of electric

vehicles are illustrated by the

o Energy. Nationwide

car and light truck

following:

electrification of 20 percent of annual

travel in 2010 would reduce automotive

6
petroleum use by around 18 percent. If electric vehicles

were introduced only in regions where utilities would use

little or no petroleum for generating recharge electricity,

up to 70 percent of annual travel could be electrified with

almost no use of petroleum.

o Environment. Electrification eliminates exhaust emissions

from vehicles but would increase sulfur oxide emissions from

fossil-fueled power plants. On balance there would appear

to be an improvement in air quality, but it is small.

Stringent controls are being applied to pollutant emissions

both from motor vehicles and electric utilities. Thus pollutant emissions from other sources will largely mask

changes due to vehicular electrification. Because electric

propulsion is extremely quiet, it would reduce traffic

noise; but again, reductions would be small because of the

dominant roles played by large trucks and tire noise. Tire

noise, of course, will be the same for both electric and

conventional vehicles.

o Economy. Use of electric and hybrid vehicles would increase

motorists’ cost of travel, at least until gasoline becomes

much more expensive or very advanced batteries are developed. Changes elsewhere in the economy would be relatively

small. The motor vehicle industry accounts for less than 4

percent of US employment, and many jobs within it (production of vehicle bodies, running gear, and tires; vehicle

distribution and sales; parts supply) would be little

changed by electrification. Year-to-year changes required

for 20 percent electrification of US light vehicle travel by

2000 or 2010 would be very small.

o Resources. Known resources of most battery materials would

be adequate for electrifying 20 percent of US car and light

truck travel; but problems would arise for many battery

types if there were to be worldwide vehicular electrification on a large scale. Increased demand due to electrification would increase prices particularly for lithium, cobalt,

and nickel. Generalized data suggests that increasing

prices would lead to increased exploration, improved methods

of extraction, and thus expanded reserves and resources; but

this is at best speculative.

o Transportation. Electric vehicles could provide substantial —

mobility in the absence of petroleum, with potentially low

maintenance, high reliability and a smooth, quiet ride.

Today’s levels of mobility, however, would be impaired by

the range limitation of electric vehicles, and high acceleration capability would be unavailable or uneconomic. Hybrids could provide unimpaired mobility and, with higher use

of petroleum, unimpaired acceleration capability as well.

7
The uncertainties in these projections of benefits and costs primarily arise in the uncertain market penetration of electric and hybrid

vehicles (discussed above) and in the future growth and utilitization of

the electric and utility industry. Growth rates of electricity demand

are uncertain and may change; if they increase, utilities may have less

capacity available for recharging electric cars. Patterns of demand may

also change; the same time-of-day pricing which encourages the desirable

late-night recharging of electric vehicles might smooth out daily fluctuations in other demands. Then little capacity would ordinarily be

idle late at night and thus available for electric vehicle recharging.

8
2 INTRODUCTION

This report presents a comprehensive review of the future of electric and hybrid vehicles through the year 2010 in the United States. It

discusses the technology, performance, and limitations of probable future electric and hybrid vehicles; the infrastructure necessary to produce and support them; marketability; and finally, effects on the nation

if used in large numbers.

The report begins with a discussion of the technology of electric

vehicles, and what it may offer in the future. Storage batteries are

addressed first because they have always been the principal obstacle to

practical electric vehicles. Then electric drive trains and their integration into vehicle design are described. Next, the tradeoff between

range and cost is projected. (Electric vehicles may offer competitive

cost or long driving range, but probably not both at once.) Finally,

the performance and cost of representative future electric vehicles are

projected. These are used subsequently in the report as the basis for

considering marketability and the impacts of large-scale use.

The technology of hybrid vehicles is discussed after that of electric vehicles because hybrids are an extension of electric vehicle technology which will probably reach the marketplace only after the appearance of electric vehicles, and only if satisfactory storage batteries

and electric drive trains have been developed. The hybrid vehicle designs described here are basically electric vehicles to which an internal-combustion engine has been added. The engine supplements the energy

and power available from the electric drive, giving either unlimited

cruising range or both the range and the high acceleration performance

of conventional cars. The performance and costs of representative

future hybrid vehicles are projected and compared with those of future

electric vehicles. Because range-extension hybrids could electrify

light vehicle travel in the US to about the same extent as pure electric

vehicles, most of the impacts of hybrid vehicle use on a large scale are

similar to those of pure electric vehicles.

After reviewing the potential of electric and hybrid vehicle technology, the report turns to consideration of the infrastructure required

to support electrified travel. The principal elements of the infrastructure are the electric power system, which must recharge batteries;

the materials industry, which must supply large quantities of materials

used in batteries; and the automotive industry, which must both produce

and maintain electric vehicles. The discussion begins with electric

utilities, an industry larger in the United States than the motor vehicle manufacturing industry, without which electric cars would not be

feasible. Materials supply is discussed next. It is, after all, a

shortage of petroleum resources and supplies that motivates consideration of electric vehicles, and resources of battery materials are not

necessarily more abundant or more assuredly available from foreign

suppliers.

9
Marketability of electric and

The discussion begins with existing

hybrid vehicles is next reviewed.

patterns of vehicle use, since it is

often argued--correctly-- that future electric vehicles will have adequate range and speed for most urban travel. Market penetration estimates, however, show clearly that this is not enough to ensure large

sales of electric and hybrid vehicles~ since buyers are concerned about

initial costs as well as limited range and lengthy recharge times. The

discussion of marketability points out the critical role of the cost and

availability of liquid fuels for heat engine vehicles, and the possible

effect of incentives for electric and hybrid vehicles which may be provided by governmental action.

This report concludes with a review of the benefits and costs,

monetary and non-monetary, which might accrue if electric and hybrid

vehicles were to be widely used in the United States. It begins with

energy, since that is the principal problem motivating consideration of

electric vehicles. It considers both the petroleum requirements of

electric utilities to generate power for recharging electric vehicles

and the petroleum savings if conventional vehicles were to be replaced

with electric and hybrid vehicles. It next turns to the environment,

specifically air pollution and traffic noise. Though electric vehicles

emit no air pollutants directly, the power plants which recharge them

will run overtime to do so. The effects on the economy of manufacturing

and supporting electric vehicles are briefly reviewed, as are resultant

demands for battery materials, limitations of US materials resources,

and potential dependence on foreign suppliers. The effects of limitedrange vehicles on mobility and travel in the US are noted. Finally, the

major uncertainties in projecting benefits and costs of electrification

are reviewed. The uncertainties arise at every step, in the projection

of technological capability and costs, infrastructure, and marketability, as well as in the final accounting of national benefits and costs.

The material presented here is drawn from existing studies. No

new analyses were undertaken. Instead, this report offers a comprehensive review for a nontechnical audience. Each chapter begins with an

introduction and summary which provides historical background and explains key issues before presenting projections for the future. Graphs

and tables are presented only as supplements to material presented in

the text, and mathematical models are avoided.

10
3 ELECTRIC VEHICLE SYSTEMS

3.1 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

An electric vehicle is propelled by an electric motor drawing

power from an electric storage battery. The motor and battery take the

place of the engine and fuel tank of a conventional car. The battery is

rechargeable: when it runs down, after perhaps 50 to 100 miles of driving, it may be recharged by a battery charger connected to a standard

electrical outlet. Recharging typically requires 4 to 12 hours.

The technology to build electric vehicles has been available for

almost a century. Eighty years ago, in the early days of the automobile, electric vehicles were as numerous in the United States as

gasoline and steam-powered vehicles. By the 1920’s, however, electric

vehicles had almost vanished from the vehicle marketplace, primarily

because of limited range and higher cost than competing gasoline-powered

vehicles.

Though the limited range and lengthy recharge of the electric

vehicles are important drawbacks, they are offset by a major advantage:

independence of the gasoline pump. Today, intense interest in electric

vehicles has been reawakened by the increasing price and uncertain

availability of petroleum fuel for conventional vehicles. Furthermore,

programs of battery R&D initiated in response to the petroleum problem

offer prospects of more competitive electric vehicles, with much longer

ranges and lower costs than previously possible.

Improved batteries are plainly the key to more capable and economical electric vehicles. Throughout the history of electric highway

vehicles, storage batteries have been heavy, expensive, short-lived, and

limited in capability. The lead-acid storage batteries used in the typical electric car of the 1970's may be accurately likened to a gasoline

tank weighing a thousand pounds, costing over $1,000, requiring replacement every 10,000 miles, and carrying only two gallons of fuel. This

sort of fuel storage would add some 50 percent to the empty weight of a

subcompact car, increase its operating costs by adding battery depreciation of perhaps ten cents per mile, and limit its range to around 40

miles of urban driving.

Battery R&D during the late 1970’s has already increased energy

storage of the lead-acid battery by over 20 percent and nearly doubled

its useful life. For the future, even larger improvements seem likely,

though projections are uncertain and it is impossible to predict confidently which of several competing battery types will prove best. Longer

useful life is ordinarily the major problem; it is relatively easy to

build batteries with increased energy storage if long life is not required.

11
which

Batteries under development for the near-term--that is, batteries

may be ready for mass production during the 1980's--include

improved versions of the familiar lead-acid battery and the less-common

nickel-iron battery, plus two batteries which have never before been

used in commercial electric vehicles, nickel-zinc and zinc-chlorine.

Depending on which of these developments is successful, energy storage

per pound may be 35-100 percent greater than that of the best lead-acid

batteries of 1980, and improvements in operating life may be even greater.

More advanced batteries may also be successfully developed, probably in time for mass production during the 1990’s, though this is even

less certain. Again, there are a number of competing systems. The best

of them might provide up to 4 times the energy storage per pound of the

best 1980 batteries, or last the entire life of the vehicle they power.

The 100-mile electric car, a goal stated by both DOE and GM, will

become a practical possibility during the 1980's if any of the near-term

battery developments are successful. The weight and cost of the car,

however, will remain high. Depending on battery type, curb weight of a

four-passenger 100-mile subcompact might range from 3000 to 4000 lbs, or

50 to 100 percent above that of a comparable conventional subcompact

car. Projected sticker prices (in 1980 dollars) range from $8000 to

$8500, or 60-75 percent above the projected price of a comparable

conventional subcompact.

Life-cycle costs projected for near-term electric cars are much

closer to the life-cycle cost of the comparable conventional car, but

still above it. Including depreciation, maintenance and repairs, insurance, parking, electricity, and financing, life-cycle costs projected

for four-passenger electric cars range from 22.0 to 26.6 cents per mile

in 1980 dollars. The life-cycle cost projected for the comparable

conventional car is 21.4 cents per mile. The projected electric cars

benefit from longer useful life, from low costs per mile for electricity, and from relatively low maintenance and repair costs. Resultant

savings are outweighed, however, by battery depreciation costs plus

extra depreciation and financing costs due to the higher initial cost of

the electric vehicles.

If cars with more advanced batteries become available in the

1990's, they may be substantially lighter and less expensive than the

near-term cars, though still heavier and more expensive to buy than a

comparable conventional car. Life-cycle costs, however, could be less

than those of the conventional subcompact, even if gasoline prices are

no higher than in 1980.

After battery performance, life, and cost, the biggest uncertainties in these projections are the future prices of gasoline and electricity. If electricity prices remain constant, real increases in the

12
price of gasoline from 10 to over 100 percent, depending on the battery

type, would be required to make the conventional car as expensive as the

near-term electric cars.

Maximum range in actual use is also uncertain. The hundred-mile

figure projected here is a nominal figure for stop-start urban driving.

Depending on driving speed, battery age, frequency of stops, grades,

headwinds, and use of air conditioning, actual maximum range could be

more or less than the nominal by a factor of two.

The 1980 state of the art in electric car technology is best exemplified by the Electric Test Vehicle (ETV-1) built for DOE by General

Electric and Chrysler. This car is shown in Fig. 3.1. It is an attractive four-passenger subcompact with sufficient speed for freeway use

and a useful urban driving range which may be about 60 miles. (Testing

is presently incomplete; two preliminary trials showed urban ranges of

50 and 74 miles.) The initial price of the ETV-1 in full-scale mass

production is estimated by GE and Chrysler at $8500 (in 1980 dollars),

63 percent above the $5200 price of a comparable 1980 Chrysler subcompact with an internal combustion engine (ICE).

Figure 3.1 The GE/Chrysler Electric Car ETV-1

13
The near-term electric cars projected

similar in appearance and capability to the

here might be generally

ETV-1. Like the ETV-1, they

would carry four passengers at speeds adequate for freeway use. Their

improved batteries, however, would give them much more range at little

or no extra cost. Furthermore, their acceleration capability would be

about 30 percent higher. On level ground they could accelerate from O

to 40 mph in 10 seconds: this is comparable to the capability of many

diesel automobiles, and considerably better than the ETV-1 capability

for accelerating from O to 40 mph in 14 seconds.

The remainder of this chapter details projections of the performance and cost of future electric vehicles. It begins with batteries

because they are the crucial problem for electric vehicles. Next, it

describes electric drive technology: motors, controllers, and other

components. It then devotes three sections to complete electric vehicles: design objectives and requirements, the major tradeoffs between

performance and cost, and the characteristics of electric vehicles

chosen to be representative of future possibilities.

3.2 BATTERIES

Background

The limited

battery have long

capability, high cost, and short life of the storage

been the principal obstacles to electric vehicles

competitive with conventional vehicles. In the early 1900’s, when motor

vehicles were in their infancy and there were as many electric as gasoline vehicles in use, contemporary authorities praised the cleanliness,

safety, ease of operation, and reliability of electric propulsion, but

bemoaned the immense weight and limited capability of the storage batteries.’ In explaining the demise of the electric vehicle, historians

note in addition the rapid deterioration of storage batteries with use,

the high overall costs of operating the electric vehicle, and the relatively slow technological progress in storage batteries relative to that

in internal-combustion engines. Even today, golf car batteries are

still made in the same general configuration as that of the early 1900’s

by a procedure patented in 1881.

Most electric vehicles built in the 1970’s are powered by leadacid batteries designed for golf cars. These batteries physically resemble the starting-lighting ignition batteries used in conventional

automobiles, but are somewhat larger, and are designed for repeated deep

discharges. Four-passenger electric cars have typically required 1000-

1200 pounds of golf-car batteries costing $1000-1200 to achieve perhaps

40 miles of urban driving between recharges. Since the batteries could

be recharged only about 250 times, replacement was required after each

10,000 miles of driving. Thus battery depreciation alone has amounted

to around ten cents per mile.

The basic cell of the lead-acid battery (and most other batteries)

consists of two dissimilar materials immersed in a liquid electrolyte.

14
During discharge, an electrochemical reaction takes place between these

materials which causes an electric current to flow through an external

circuit, connected between them, such as an electric motor. As the

original materials in the cell are consumed in the reaction, chemical

energy is transformed into electrical energy. During recharge, the

electric current through the cell is reversed by electric energy from an

external source. This reverses the chemical reaction within the cell,

re-forming the original chemical compounds and thus storing electrical

energy in chemical form.

Recharging does not return the cell exactly to its original condition. With repeated cycles of charge and discharge, fully-charged cells

depart further and further from their original state. This limits the

useful life of the cell: eventually, the quantity of energy stored and

the maximum power output (the rate at which energy can be released) will

fall below acceptable levels, or the cumulative movement of material

within the cell may develop internal short circuits.

A battery is an assemblage of interconnected cells. The standard

golf-car battery comprises three cells. Electric vehicle batteries ordinarily require 48 to 72 cells. For convenience in handling and economy

of manufacture, the 3-cell golf car battery rather than the single cell

has usually served as the basic module from which complete vehicular

batteries are assembled. By proper interconnection, the completed battery may operate at an output voltage as high as the sum of all its cell

voltages, as low as the voltage of a single cell, or at various intermediate levels. For electric vehicles, all cells are usually connected

in series to give battery voltages in the range of 72-144 volts.

It should be noted that many batteries are not designed for recharging. Such batteries, called primary batteries, are widely used in

flashlights, transistor radios, and other devices where battery life and

cost are acceptable without recharging. Batteries not designed for recharge can be light, cheap, and powerful; but replacement costs would

generally be intolerable if primary batteries were used for vehicular

propulsion.

In conventional batteries, all the active materials remain in the

basic cell during the complete cycle of charge and discharge. In one

promising new development, however, one of the active materials is

stored separately and is moved to and from the cell by mechanical pumps

(the zinc-chlorine system under development by Gulf and Western Industries) . The system is electrically recharged, however, without physical

introduction of new active material from external sources. This is a

critical distinction because it determines whether the electric utility

system, or some other system, would be required to deliver energy to

automotive propulsion batteries.

In this report, only electrically rechargeable batteries are

considered. Thus the aluminum-air battery being investigated by

15
Lawrence Livermore Laboratories is omitted. It would be recharged by

replacement of its aluminum plates, with periodic removal of the electrolyte containing spent aluminum. A major new chemical reprocessing

industry and refueling infrastructure would be required to recycle the

spent aluminum into new aluminum plates. Similarly, fuel cells are also

omitted. In a fuel cell, active material such as hydrogen and oxygen

are combined to release electric energy. These fuels are stored outside

of the cell, however, and are not regenerated by forcing electricity in

the reverse direction through the cell. Again, a new chemical industry

and refueling infrastructure would be required to refuel electric

vehicles using fuel cells.

To recharge the storage batteries considered in this report, electric energy from an ordinary electrical outlet is passed through a battery charger into the battery. The battery charger converts ordinary

alternating currents to the direct currents required by the batteries.

It provides the direct current at a voltage appropriate to the state of

battery charge and to the rate of recharge desired.

The useful life of a battery, the number of times it can be fully

charged and discharged, depends strongly on how it is recharged. If the

battery is deeply discharged, much of its charge can be restored without

harmful effects quite rapidly-- 50 to 75 percent in the first hour, if

sufficient electricity is available and a high-power charger is available to supply it to the battery. Completing the charge, however, must

generally be done slowly. For lead-acid batteries, at least 4 or 5

hours is required to reach full charge even after a shallow discharge.

To avoid the expense of very high-capacity electric outlets and highpower chargers, it is customary to install equipment which requires all

night (8 hours or more) to recharge a deeply discharged battery.

Measures of Performance and Cost

For evaluating the performance and cost of batteries for vehicular

propulsion, 5 measures are in common use.

o Specific energy is the electrical energy in watt-hours which

can be delivered by each pound or kilogram of battery.

Because specific energy depends on discharge rate, it is

customary to measure specific energy during a three-hour

discharge, which is roughly the time required for full

discharge in continuous driving of a passenger vehicle.

High specific energy is vital for vehicle batteries because

it determines vehicle range. If specific energy is increased, the range of the vehicle using the battery will be

increased a little more than proportionately.

o Specific power is the maximum power in watts which can be

delivered by each pound or kilogram of battery. Since the

capability of a battery diminishes rapidly as it approaches

the fully discharged condition, it is necessary to state

16
carefully the conditions under which specific power is

measured. It is customary to measure specific power when

the battery is half discharged, and to make the measurement

on a conservative basis which indicates about 10 percent

less than the maximum which could actually then be obtained.

Specific power is important because it determines the maximum electrical power available in a vehicle for acceleration

or climbing hills.

o The life of a battery is ordinarily stated in terms of the

number of deep discharge and subsequent recharge cycles the

battery can withstand. Life is tested by repeated cycles of

discharge and charge which each withdraw 80 percent of rated

battery capacity. Rated capacity is the maximum energy

which a new battery can supply in a three-hour discharge.

Battery life is considered ended when the battery is no

longer capable of delivering 80 percent of its rating during

discharge. Cycle life depends on many factors, such as battery temperature and the manner of charging and discharging;

and it slowly diminishes with the passage of time even in

the absence of use. Relatively little is known about the

life of batteries which are subjected to shallow rather than

deep discharges, or discharges of varying depth. For lack

of better information, it is customary to assume that the

total energy deliverable by a battery during its life is unaffected by the depth of discharge. For vehicles, this

means that the total mileage which can be driven on a set of

batteries is independent of the distance driven each day.

Battery life is critical for vehicular applications because

it determines the frequency of battery replacement and thus

affects total battery costs during the life of the vehicle.

o Enerqy efficiency is the electrical energy delivered by a

battery expressed as a percentage of the electrical energy

required for recharge. It is important because it determines the amount of propulsion energy the battery can deliver from a unit of recharge energy. Some batteries require

electric energy from external sources for heating or refrigeration. It is customary to include this energy with energy

for recharging in estimating efficiency because it affects

total electricity requirements in the same way as other

losses within the battery.

o Specific cost is the cost of each kilowatt-hour of battery

capacity. It is important because it determines the initial

and replacement cost of a battery of a given storage capacity. Like all other costs in this report, battery costs

are measured in mid-1980 dollars and are based on mature

mass production and high-volume retailing.

17
To compare possible future batteries and to compute their implications for electric vehicles (vehicle driving range, energy use, and

cost) , it is necessary next to project specific values of these five

battery measures for a representative set of future batteries.

Projections of Performance and Cost

The following projections are based on published

3

reports which are

generally the product of the DOE battery R&D program. There also exist

substantial independent programs of battery development, such as the GM

work in lead-acid, nickel-zinc, and high-temperature lithium batteries.

Published results are insufficient, however, for use of industry-supported research here.

Batteries under development by the Department of Energy are divided into two groups: “near-term” and “advanced.” Near-term batteries

are those considered most likely to become available for use in demonstration electric vehicles before 1985. Advanced batteries offer higher

performance potential but successful development is far less certain and

development schedules are speculative. It appears quite likely that at

least one of the near-term batteries will be successfully mass-produced

for vehicular propulsion by 1990. It is too early, however, to determine which of the batteries will succeed, so all four near-term batteries are included in the projections presented here. Advanced battery

developments are far less predictable, but there is a reasonable possibility that some kind of advanced battery will follow the near-term

batteries into mass production before the year 2000. To illustrate this

possibility, projections are presented for batteries representative of

low and high levels of advanced battery performance. The four types of

near-term batteries are lead-acid, nickel-iron, nickel-zinc, and zincchlorine. An improved zinc-chlorine system and a high-temperature

lithium-metal sulfide system were taken as representative of the lowest

and highest levels of performance to be expected from advanced batteries.

Specific energies projected here for the near-term batteries are

1.6 to 2.5 times larger than those of premium golf-car batteries of the

1970’s. Specific energies projected for the advanced batteries are 3

and 5 times those of premium golf-car batteries Because electric car

ranges are roughly proportional to specific energy, these increases imply dramatic improvements are coming in useful range.

Major improvements in life are also expected. For the near-term

batteries, cycle lives are projected to be 1.6 to 6 times longer than

those of premium golf-car batteries. For the advanced batteries, projected cycle lives are 4 to 6 times longer. With these life increases,

batteries might be replaced only once or twice during the life of the

vehicle they power. In some cases, they might last the entire life of

the vehicle. Even though the specific costs of the projected batteries

equal or exceed those of golf-car batteries, the long lives projected

would drastically reduce expenditures necessary for replacement batteries, and total battery cost over the life of the vehicle.

18
Table 3.1 summarizes the ranges of performance and cost projected

for near-term and advanced batteries. It includes corresponding data

for premium golf-car batteries commonly used in electric vehicles during

the 1970’s. It also includes data for a battery representing 1980 capability. This battery, the Globe-Union EV2-13, 4

was developed for the DOE

Electric Test Vehicle ETV--1. It embodies substantial advances over the

golf-car batteries of the seventies; commercial production is expected

during 1981.

Tables 3.2 and 3.3 provide more detail to support Table 3.1. In

Table 3.2, individual projections are advanced for the four near-term

batteries. These projections are based on the development goals adopted

by DOE, but include downward adjustments in specific energy and life

reflecting two considerations: progress for some of the near-term

batteries, notably lead-acid and zinc-chlorine, seems to be more rapid

than for the others; and development goals have been set higher than

probable achievements in order to pose a significant technical challenge

and elicit the best possible results. In Table 3.3, the maximum performance now contemplated for advanced batteries is illustrated by a

lithium-metal sulfide system. A reasonable minimum level of performance

for advanced batteries is illustrated by an improved zinc-chlorine

system. In general, performance goals adopted by DOE for advanced batteries, including sodium-sulfur, metal-air, and other systems in

addition to lithium-metal sulfide, lie between these examples in Table

3.3. The long lives and low costs in the table are both optimistic and

speculative.

The lead-acid battery projected in Table 3.2 is based on vast experience: lead-acid batteries today provide starting, lighting, and ignition for hundreds of millions of passenger cars and tens of millions

of motor trucks; and they provide motive power for tens of thousands of

forklift trucks. The battery sought for on-road electric vehicles would

bring together the high energy, high power, and low cost of the starting-lighting-ignition battery with the extremely long service life

(1500-2000 deep discharges) achieved in motive power batteries for industrial lift trucks. The construction of a battery representing the

state of the art in 1980 is illustrated in Fig. 3.2, which shows the

battery that was especially developed for the ETV-1 car built by GE and

Chrysler. Like most other lead-acid batteries used in electric vehicles, this battery has three cells and weighs about 60 pounds. Each

cell includes a set of positive and negative electrodes--in this case

lead grids supporting the active materials, spongy lead and lead dioxide. The plates are immersed in a dilute solution of sulfuric acid,

the electrolyte for the electrochemical reaction in which lead sulfate

is formed as electric energy is delivered to an external circuit. Sixteen to twenty such batteries are usually required in a four-passenger

electric car. They are typically placed on a supporting tray, connected

in series, and loaded into the vehicle they are to propel from underneath. In the 1970’s, it was necessary every few weeks to remove the

cap for each of the 60 cells in a vehicle battery pack, add distilled

19
c

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.

I

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20
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21
.

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22
●

●

●

●

GLOBE-UNION INC.

EV2-13 LEAD-ACID

ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERY

6 Volt

27.2 kg (60 lb)

Unconventional, Computer-Designed Cell

Geometry

Left-Hand and RightHand Models

KEY

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

Thin, Lightweight, Durable Polypropylene Container and Cover Thermally

Welded for a Leak-Free

Assembly

Single-Point Watering

System with Safety

Venting

Low-Resistance, Throughthe-Partition Intercell

Welds

High-Efficiency, Computer Designed Radial

Grids

Optimized Active Materials

Submicro Polyethylene

Envelope Separators with

Glass Mat

Figure 3.2 Current Globe-Union Lead-Acid Electric Vehicle Battery

water as necessary to each cell, replace the caps, and clean off the

accumulation of acid moisture and dirt which appeared on the battery

surface. Future batteries, however, will have single-point watering and

venting systems which will greatly reduce the labor of maintenance. The

interim state-of-the-art batteries developed for and now being tested by

DOE already have such a system, and in addition appear to be close to

all the projections of Table 3.2 for lead-acid batteries excepting specific energy, where they offer about 20 percent less. 5 Further development toward the DOE advanced lead-acid battery goal (27 watt-hours per

pound) should bring the energy level up at least to the figure of Table

3.2 (23 watt-hours per pound) during the 1980’s.

23
The nickel-iron battery was invented by Thomas Edison at the turn

of the century. Though it failed to achieve his express intention--

making electric vehicles superior to gasoline vehicles--it has found

continued use in railway carriages, mine locomotives, and other applications requiring a rugged, durable, long-life battery. The development

problem for on-road vehicular applications is to increase power and

energy density and to lower costs, without undue sacrifice of life. The

nickel-iron and nickel-zinc batteries of Table 3.2 are generally similar

in arrangement to the lead-acid battery. Both the nickel-iron and

nickel-zinc batteries employ multi-plate cells with an aqueous electrolyte at room temperature --though in this case the electrolyte is alkaline rather than acid (a solution of potassium hydroxide). Both batteries employ nickel positive electrodes, but the nickel-zinc battery substitutes zinc for iron negative electrodes to achieve higher energy and

power output per pound of battery. A practical nickel-zinc battery has

long eluded developers primarily because of problems inherent in this

substitution. On repeated cycles of charge and discharge, zinc electrodes tend to change shape/ lose capacity, and grow needle-like dendrites which penetrate the separators between adjacent positive and

negative plates, thus short-circuiting cells.

The zinc-chlorine battery of Table 3.2 differs substantially in

construction from the other near-term batteries. One of its active

materials, chlorine, is stored separately from the electrode stack, and

must be conveyed to and from the stack by a system of pumps and plumbing

through which the electrolyte, an aqueous solution of zinc chloride containing gaseous chlorine, is circulated. The chlorine is stored as a

solid, chlorine hydrate, which forms when water containing chlorine is

chilled below 50 degrees. to accomplish this, the battery charger includes a refrigerator to chill a working fluid. During charging, the

chilled working fluid is pumped through a heat exchanger within the battery, where it absorbs heat from the electrolyte. The electrodes in the

cells of this battery are based on graphite structures which offer very

long life. During charging, zinc is plated onto the negative electrodes

while chlorine is evolved at the positive electrodes. The chlorine is

carried out of the cell stack by the circulating electrolyte through the

heat exchanger where chlorine hydrate is formed. During discharge, the

process is reversed. Because the battery may be fully discharged without harm, all the zinc may thus be periodically removed from the graphite substrates. In this way, the usual problems of zinc electrodes,

cumulative shape change and dendrite buildup during cycling, may be

eliminated. It appears that the pumps and plumbing, rather than the

electrodes, may ultimately limit the life of the battery. It seems possible, and even likely, that sufficient life can be achieved so that the

battery may be sealed in a container with terminals for input and output

of electricity, and operated without servicing for the entire life of

the vehicle.

24
The zinc-chlorine system is relatively new and may be developed

well beyond the levels of performance projected in Table 3.2. Accordingly, an advanced zinc-chlorine system is projected in Table 3.3,

where it is representative of the minimum performance which 6

advanced

battery developments, if successful, may bring in the 1990s.

The lithium-metal sulfide system in Table 3.3 is an example of the

highest performance which advanced battery systems may bring. Its characteristics are drawn from the most optimistic long-term development

goals which have been published in recent years. The cells of this battery utilize lithium-aluminum negative plates and iron sulfide positive

plates immersed in a molten salt electrolyte. The battery must be maintained at approximately 700 F, which means that a housing with exceptionally effective insulation is required. It is highly desirable that

heat loss through the housing be low so that additional heat beyond that

evolved in the cells during ordinary use will be unnecessary. If sup--

plementary heating is necessary, it will be supplied by the battery

charger, decreasing effective battery efficiency. In addition to superb

insulation, the housing must also ensure safe containment of battery

materials, even in crashes. The assumed specific energy in Table 3.3

includes a weight allowance f r housing, 7

which may amount to 20 or 25

percent of total cell weight. The high energy of the battery is due to

the high chemical activity of lithium and sulfur. The principal difficulties in battery development are also due to this high activity, which

presents serious problems of corrosion and containment, especially at

the elevated temperature of operation. Extraordinary materials are

needed to contain the molten electrolyte, to separate and space the

plates within each cell, to collect and conduct electric currents within

each cell, and to insulate the conductors where they pass through the

cell container. These materials must nonetheless be inexpensive to purchase and fabricate.

In general, achieving a long operating life appears to be the

major problem in battery development There is little theory to guide

improvements intended to combat the gradual changes and degradation

associated with charge-discharge cycling. Experimental approaches are

difficult and very time-consuming, since it may take years of testing to

determine the effect on battery life of a given design change. Though

increases in energy density are highly desirable, it is long life which

is critical to achieving acceptable depreciation costs for propulsion

batteries in on-road vehicles.

Total Costs of Stored Electricity

The total costs of stored electricity include both battery depreciation and purchase of recharge electricity. For the near-term batteries projected here, depreciation costs far exceed recharge electricity

costs despite assumed cycle lives well beyond those of recent years.

Both costs, in cents per kilowatt-hour of battery output, are shown in

Table 3.4. Since four-passenger electric cars may require roughly 0.4

kWh of battery output per mile driven, the table implies that total

25
Q1

.

.

n

u

26
costs for near-term batteries will be roughly 5 to 12 cents per mile,

including depreciation, whereas costs of recharge electricity alone

would be only 1.5 to 2.2 cents per mile.

Uncertainties

The battery projections and assumptions advanced here are to be

viewed with caution. Such projections have usually been over-optimistic

in the past. In early 1967, for example, the US Senate Committee on

Commerce and Public Works held joint hearings on “Electric Vehicles and

Other Alternatives to the Internal Combustion Engine.” 8

At the hearings, a procession of experts spoke optimistically about metal-air and

sodium-sulfur batteries, which were then in vogue:

“.. .zinc-air rechargeable batteries should offer advantages in

performance, weight, volume, and material costs...continued

development. ..should lead within the next couple of years to truly

economically feasible batteries for electric vehicles.” Dr.

Stewart M. Chodosh, Battery Manager, Leesona Moos Laboratories.

“In our judgment the zinc-air battery project is well ahead of

every other advanced project and stands a good chance of success.”

Charles Avila, President, Boston Edison Company.

“We are expecting commercial availability of these zinc-air

batteries in the early 1970s.” Dr. Frederick de Hoffman, VicePresident, General Dynamics.

“We believe that, within the next decade, research and development

now being conducted by Ford and others will make it possible to

produce marketable electrical vehicles much superior to any that

can be built today.

“Our sodium-sulfur battery is now in an advanced stage of laboratory development. Its technical feasibility and excellent performance have been demonstrated.. .“ Michael Ference, Jr., VicePresident, Scientific Research, Ford Motor Company.

Now, however, thirteen years later, neither of these battery systems is

commercially available. Moreover, neither is considered a near-term

development by the Department of Energy. The sodium-sulfur battery remains among advanced developments which may eventually become available,

while zinc-air systems have almost dropped from view, even in the research community.

3.3 DRIVE TRAIN

Background

The electric drive train converts electric power from the battery

to mechanical power at the driven wheels of the electric vehicle. Its

27
major components are ordinarily an electric motor, an electrical controller, a transmission, and a differential, as illustrated in Fig. 3.3.

The motor converts electrical power to mechanical power. The controller

regulates the amount of power flowing from the battery to the motor, and

thus the speed and acceleration of the vehicle. The transmission and

differential perform the same functions they perform in conventional

vehicles: reducing the high rotation speed of the motor shaft to the

low rotation speed of the driven wheels, and dividing the mechanical

power between the two driven wheels.

Conventional direct-current motors have been used in the great

majority of electric vehicles, past and present. Such motors have only

a single moving part, a rotating set of electromagnets called the armature. The armature revolves within a stationary set of electromagnets

called the field. Electric current flows to the armature through a set

of carbon brushes which slide on a segmented copper cylinder called a

commutator. The brushes are fixed to the frame of the motor and are

motionless, while the commutator is mounted on the armature shaft and

rotates with it. The commutator reverses the direction of current flow

through the armature magnets at appropriate moments to obtain continuous

armature rotation.

The simplicity of the electric motor leads to very high reliability and long life. Only the brushes require periodic maintenance,

usually an inspection at intervals of 500 to 1000 hours of operation (a

year or two in automotive use) and replacement when required.

Unlike the internal-combustion engine, the electric motor is

reversible and self-starting. Furthermore, it develops high torque at

zero speed, provides its full rated output with high efficiency over a

wide range of speeds, and can deliver two to three times its continuous

output rating for short periods of time. All this makes it so well

suited to vehicular propulsion that an electric motor of 20-30 horsepower

rating is the rival of internal combustion engines with much higher

ratings, in the 50-75 hp class. The weight of such a motor, roughly 4-5

pounds per horsepower of short-term output capability, falls between

that of gasoline engines (3-4 pounds per horsepower) and lightweight

diesel engines (5-6 pounds per horsepower). Its cost in mass production

would be less than that of either gasoline or diesel engines.

For vehicular use, however, the electric motor is incomplete without an electrical controller to vary its speed and power output in accord with the wishes of the driver. Depending on its design, the controller may be more expensive than the motor, and almost as bulky although lighter in weight.

Early electric vehicles employed large manually-operated rotary

switches as controllers. The switches connected the cells of the propulsion battery in different arrangements to change the battery voltage

28
29
applied to the motor, and sometimes included resistors to limit motor

current, Only a few selectable levels of power and speed were thus

available to the operator. With the substitution of large relays called

contractors for the manually-operated switch, this type of controller can

be operated by a conventional accelerator pedal. Such contactor controllers are widely used in electric lift trucks, where they have proven

inexpensive and reliable.

About twenty years ago the advent of high-power semiconductor

switches made a new type of controller possible, the chopper controller.

The chopper interrupts the flow of electric current periodically to

reduce its average value to a desired level. Semiconductor switching

makes this interruption possible at such high rates, hundreds or

thousands of times per second, that to the user the flow of power to the

electric motor appears smooth and continuous. Choppers capable of

handling the full flow of power from battery to motor are large and

expensive, but give smooth control of motor speed from its maximum rated

speed all the way down to zero. Choppers of much more limited capability are used to control only the current flowing in the motor field

winding. They are much smaller and less expensive, but allow motor

speed to be varied only through a speed range of perhaps three to one

without sacrifice of efficiency. Control does not extend all the way

down to zero speed.

Whether they are built with high-power choppers, field choppers,

or both, controllers require a main contactor to disconnect the battery

entirely when the vehicle is at rest. They ordinarily include sensors

to detect overheating of the motor or excessive input currents and some

means to reduce power input to the motor to protect it against damage

which might otherwise result. Unless reverse movement of the vehicle is

accomplished by a transmission, additional contractors may be required to

reverse the rotation of the motor. Finally, modern controllers are required to provide regenerative braking, which entails additional circuitry. The conventional electric motor can operate with equal efficiency as a generator, allowing the kinetic energy of a vehicle to be

converted to electricity during deceleration rather than lost as heat in

ordinary friction brakes. The electricity is returned to the battery,

where it is available for subsequent use.

A transmission is ordinarily required to reduce the shaft speed of

the electric motor to a level compatible with the lower rotation speed

of the driven wheels. Electric motors can be built to run efficiently

at very low speeds, but this increases motor weight and cost so much

that it is preferable to add a transmission to a higher-speed motor.

Multispeed transmissions increase motor speed and efficiency during

periods of low driving speed, but some designers have not considered

these benefits sufficient to offset the extra expense and operating complexity involved.

30
A differential is usually included to distribute an even flow of

power from the transmission to the two driven wheels of the vehicle. It

is made necessary by vehicle turns, which cause the driven wheels to

revolve at unequal speeds. A few electric vehicles have dispensed with

the differential, substituting instead separate drive motors for the

driven wheels. Generally, however, it appears that a single motor with

differential is less expensive and equally effective overall.

The objectives of drive train design are to provide adequate propulsive power with high efficiency, high reliability, low weight, and

low cost. Existing technology is already close to meeting all these objectives. Efficiency is so high, near 80 percent overall, that little

is left to be gained. Motors are already highly reliable and with the

experience gained from mass production, controllers will probably become

equally reliable. Drivetrain weight is comparable to that of conventional internal-combustion vehicles. Drivetrain cost remains higher

than that of conventional vehicles due largely to the cost of the controller, but the differential is far less than that between the costs of

the gas tank and the propulsion battery.

In short, the electric drive train is not a major obstacle to

successful electric vehicles. Improvements in drivetrains, especially

those leading to lower cost, remain desirable, but improvements so great

they would offset the drawbacks associated with the propulsion battery

do not appear possible.

Examples of the State of the Art

The drive train developed by General Electric for DOE’s electric

test vehicle ETV-1 is built around a sophisticated chopper controller

and a conventional DC motor. Its transmission is a simple chain drive

which offers a fixed speed reduction, and its differential is a standard

component of the front wheel drive assembly built by Chrysler for its

Omni and Horizon models.

The controller employs separate choppers to control motor armature

current and motor field current. The armature chopper, a device capable

of handling currents as large as 400 amps, controls the motor at vehicle

speeds from zero to 30 mph, which correspond to motor speeds from zero

to 2500 rpm. At speeds above 30 mph, the armature chopper is bypassed

and motor speed is controlled by the field chopper, a much smaller device which supplies currents of 5-10 amps to the field electromagnets.

A third chopper unit with 200-amp capability is used to control battery

charging current during regenerative braking. The two high-current

choppers utilize special high-current transistor modules developed

especially for this application. The transistors enable higher chopping

frequencies and simpler control circuits than the SCR’s (silicon controlled rectifiers) which have been used in most chopper controllers for

electric vehicles. The low current chopper is used not only for controlling motor field current, but for controlling battery current (at

31
levels up to 24 amps) during recharging from 120-volt outlets. Overall

operation of the controller is directed by a microcomputer.

The DC motor used in the ETV-1 is a conventional design which was

tailored specifically for this application (see Fig. 3.4). It is only

17 inches long and 12 inches in diameter, but can provide 20 horsepower

continuously at any speed between 2500 and 5000 rpm at an efficiency of

almost 90 percent. operating at this rating, the motor requires an

electrical input of 96 volts at 175 amps. For short periods it can be

operated at input currents up to 400 amps, with correspondingly higher

power outputs. Total motor weight is about 200 pounds.

Figure 3.4 The 20-hp DC Motor Developed by General Electric for

the DOE Electric Test Vehicle ETV-1

32
Taken together, the motor and controller would be more expensive

than the conventional internal-combustion engine they would replace. In

a mass-produced version of the ETV-1, their extra cost would be about

$800, as compared with $1470 for the propulsion battery and a total

extra co t of about $2900 in relation to the comparable 1980 Dodge sub-

~

compact. The cost of the controller would be about equal to that for

the motor.

A different approach to drivetrain design is exemplified by the

conversion of a conventional ICE car developed by South Coast Technology

with support from the Department of Energy. The conversion is based

on the Volkswagen Rabbit and utilizes the entire transaxle assembly of

the basic car, including the clutch. It adds a conventional DC motor

similar to that of the ETV-1, but employs a simple controller which

includes only a single inexpensive chopper. The chopper controls only

the field current of the motor, and thus varies motor speed only through

a range of about 1800-3600 rpm.

Operation of the South Coast car is similar to that of a conventional ICE car with manual transmission. With the transmission in

neutral, the operator starts the motor by turning a key similar to an

ordinary ignition key. During the second or so required by the motor to

reach its minimum speed, a resistor is switched into the circuit by the

controller to minimize inrush current. To drive the vehicle, the operator shifts gears and engages the clutch much as in a conventional vehicle. As in the conventional vehicle, the motor “idles” during stops.

Resultant loss of energy is small in ordinary driving, where stops are

relatively infrequent.

Despite its simplicity, the controller provides regenerative

braking. Just as weakening the field current increases power flow to

the motor, field strengthening reduces it. The field control can not

only reduce motor current to zero, but reverse it. Then the motor acts

as a generator, decelerating the car by converting its kinetic energy to

electricity flowing back into the battery. Regeneration is only possible, of course, at speeds down to the minimum speed of the motor, but

by downshifting regeneration can be achieved at vehicle speeds down to

about 10 mph.

The arrangement of the South Coast Rabbit's drivetrain is expeditious for a conversion because it makes maximum use of existing components within the basic car. It also illustrates, however, how

effectively mechanical components --the manual multispeed transmission and

clutch--may be used to reduce the complexity and cost of the electrical

controller, and the cost of the overall vehicle. Despite the extra

effort required for their operation, manual transmissions might be

prefered by many future buyers of electric cars, just as they are now

preferred by an increasing number of buyers of conventional cars.

33
Future Drivetrains

Drivetrain R&D for electric vehicles is concentrated on the

development of improved brushless motors and their associated controllers. 3

Brushes are undesirable because they require maintenance and

limit the speed at which the motor can operate. Higher operating speed

generally leads to proportionate increases in maximum power output from

a motor of given weight. Thus brushless motors might at once require

less maintenance and weigh less than conventional designs. Brushless

motors may also be substantially cheaper, partly because they weigh

less, partly because they are amenable to designs which are especially

suited to low-cost, high-volume production.

Brushless motors are of two general types: DC machines with external electronic circuits to replace the commutor and brushes of the

conventional design; and AC machines with external electronic circuits

to convert the DC output of the battery to the AC power required by the

motor. In general, the number of high-power semiconductor devices required for brushless motors exceeds the number required for chopper controllers like that of the ETV-1. Unless lower-cost electronic components and designs can be developed, then, savings in the weight and cost

of the brushless motors may be offset by increases in the weight and

cost of the electronic controllers they require.

Transmissions for electric drivetrains are most likely to be

spin-offs of developments intended primarily for conventional ICE vehicles. Innovations likely to appear soon are the continuously-varia11b l e

transmission and the automatically-shifted multispeed gearbox. A continuously-variable transmission would relieve the requirements placed on

the electric controller for varying motor speed. So would the automatic

gearbox, but with higher overall efficiency of operation. With such

transmissions, cars with simple and inexpensive controllers like that of

the South Coast Rabbit could be satisfactory for many more motorists,

including motorists unable to use a manual transmission.

Future motors and controllers may well be no more expensive than

the ICE system they supplant. It cannot confidently be predicted yet

whether this will come about through improvements in high-power chopper

controllers, through the advent of advanced brushless motors, or through

the combination of more sophisticated transmissions with a simpler DC

motor and field controller designs. It appears, however, that at least

one of these developments will succeed.

3.4 VEHICLE DESIGN

Basic Considerations

The major functions of the motor vehicle are to move passengers

and other payload swiftly, safely, comfortably, and conveniently, at

34
minimum cost. The major components integrated into an electric passenger vehicle for this purpose include:

o The payload compartment, which provides comfortable seating,

shelter from the elements, protection in crashes, space for

parcels and luggage, convenient controls for the operator of

the vehicle, and such amenities as heating and air conditioning.

0 The drive train, which provides propulsive power for acceleration and cruising.

o The battery, which supplies electric energy to the drive

train.

o The supporting structure and chassis, including wheels,

brakes, suspension, steering, and other items necessary to

carry the payload and passenger compartment, the drive

train, and the battery on streets and highways.

The components of a conventional ICE vehicle differ only in that the

fuel tank supplants the battery, and the drive train includes the ICE

system rather than an electric motor and controller. In practice, however, the difference between the weight, bulk, and cost of the gasoline

tank and the battery is so great that they become the central problem of

electric vehicle design.

In every vehicle design, a basic compromise is struck between

capability and cost. In conventional vehicles, extra speed and payload

capacity are generally associated with higher cost. In electric vehicles this remains true, but a new dimension is added: driving range.

To increase the range of an electric vehicle with a given battery

technology means that the size of the battery must be increased. Since

the battery is a major contributor to vehicle weight, the power output

and weight of the drive train must be simultaneously increased to avoid

reductions in acceleration and top speed. With substantial weight increases in the battery and the drive train, the supporting structure and

chassis must also be made heavier. All of this leads to an increased

initial price for the long-range vehicle, higher energy use in operation, and increased operating costs.

In the conventional vehicle, the gasoline tank is a very small

part of total car weight and cost. Increasing range, payload capacity,

or propulsion power is inexpensive because it does not involve proportionate increases in a heavy and expensive propulsion battery. Furthermore, range is less important because refueling can be accomplished in

minutes rather than hours.

35
In electric vehicles, the cost of additional payload capability,

acceleration capability, and range is so high that it is worthwhile only

if frequently used. Accordingly, rear seats, high acceleration, and the

maximum feasible ranges with given battery technology are not always

offered in electric cars, since auto occupancy is usually only one or

two persons, modest acceleration suffices to keep up with almost all

traffic, and daily travel by the average automobile in the United States

is under 30 miles.

Electric vehicles also tend to be smaller than conventional vehicles because most auto buyers work under budgetary limitations. Buyers

who could afford an $8,000 electric subcompact instead of a $5,000

conventional subcompact might not be able to afford a $12,000 standard

size electric instead of a $7,500 standard size conventional car.

Because the cost of providing capability is so high in electric

vehicles, extraordinary efforts are justified to maximize drive train

efficiency and minimize the weight of the vehicle payload compartment~

supporting structure and chassis. Expensive lightweight materials, for

example, might add more to the price of a conventional car than the

value of the gasoline they would save over its life, whereas those same

expensive materials might result in lower overall costs for the electric

vehicle.

Examples of Electric Vehicle Design

The state of the art in the design of electric passenger cars is

illustrated by the electric test vehicle ETV-1 completed in late 1979 by

General Electric and Chrysler for the US Department of Energy. The central feature of the ETV-1, shown in Fig. 4

3.5, is the large propulsion

battery. The battery is accommodated in an enlarged central tunnel extending from the rear luggage compartment between the four passenger

seats to the front motor compartment, which houses the entire drive

train(controller, motor, transmission, and front wheel drive axle) . The

curb weight of the car is 3,320 pounds, while battery weight is almost

1,100 pounds. Thus the battery weighs about one-third of the total car

weight without payload. Nevertheless, range in urban driving is expected to be only 50-75 miles. The ETV-1 is comparable to the Chrysler

Horizon and Omni models in overall size and passenger accommodations,

but offers about 40 percent less luggage space. It also offers relatively low acceleration capability: O to 30 mph in 9 seconds. A motor

rated at 20 horsepower (continuous duty) suffices for this and for top

speed in excess of 60 mph. TO minimize energy use and thus maximize

range, the ETV-1 was carefully designed for low aerodynamic drag, which

is 30 to 50 percent below that of most other passenger cars on the road.

GE and Chrysler have estimated the price of the ETV-1 in mass production

(3000000 units per year) would be about $8,500, about 60 percent greater

than the price of the comparable 1980 Dodge Omni, $5,200.

36
37
In cars designed from the ground up for electric propulsion, like

the ETV-1, designers have maximum freedom in accommodating the heavy,

bulky battery and in maximizing range for a given battery size through

high efficiency. Most electric vehicles in operation today, however,

are conversions of conventional ICE vehicles. In small quantities, conversions are far cheaper than all-new designs. They benefit to the maximum extent from the low cost and proven design built into mass-produced

conventional vehicles and their components, The conversions suffer,

however, in the compromise necessary to accommodate the weight and bulk

of the battery. They also do not benefit from use of the lightweight

materials which are not cost-effective for conventional cars (at today’s

fuel prices) but would be desirable in electric cars.

The state of the art in conversions is illustrated by the electric

Rabbit built for the US Department of Energy by South Coast Technology,

a small business located in Santa Barbara, California. The battery pack

in the conversion consists of 18 golf car batteries which are the same

10 To accommo- size as the 18 special batteries included in the ETV-1.

date the battery pack, the rear seat of the Rabbit has been sacrificed,

the rear floor modified, and the batteries placed in the area formerly

occupied by the rear seat, the gasoline tank, and the spare tire. AS

shown in Fig. 3.6, the batteries occupy most of the floor space between

the front seats and the rear wall of the car. Major modifications were

made to the rear suspension of the Rabbit in order to accommodate the

extra weight of the batteries, 1,170 pounds. A battery layout like that

in the ETV-1 was considered, but rejected because of the much higher

costs of the more extensive modifications which would have been required. As in the ETV-1, the entire drive train is in the front engine

compartment. The electric motor is mounted on the standard Rabbit

transaxle in place of the gasoline or diesel engine, driving the front

wheels through the existing clutch and four-speed transmission. Because

the motor is smaller than the engine it replaces, there is ample room

above it for the controller. In Fig. 3.7, an under-hood view of the converted Rabbit, the controller is the large box slightly to the left of

center.

The curb weight of the South Coast Rabbit, 3,120 pounds, is

slightly less than that of the ETV-1, but it offers only half the seating capacity. Thirty-seven percent of its curb weight is battery weight.

Its acceleration capability (and motor size) are comparable to those of

the ETV-l; it achieves zero to 30 mph in about 10 seconds. Its aerodynamic drag is like that of efficient conventional cars now on the road,

around 50 percent higher than that of the ETV-1. With golf car batteries, its urban driving range is 35 to 40 miles, whereas the more efficient ETV-1 with its specially-built batteries achieves 50-75 miles.

Method of Projection

With future batteries storing more energy per pound, the range of

a car like the ETV-1 could be substantially increased. Alternatively,

the car could be designed for a smaller battery at considerably reduced

38
a . Cover in Plac e

b. Cover Removed

Figure 3.6 The Battery Compartment of the Electric Rabbit Built

by South Coast Technology

39
Figure 3.7 The Engine Compartment of the Electric Rabbit

Cost. As batteries improve, the spectrum of possible compromises

between range and cost will widen, making explicit attention to this

possibility more important.

The method of projection used for this report specifically accounts for the spectrum of possible compromises between range and cost.

Its results--tradeoffs between range and cost for projected future

batteries --are given in the next section. The method is based on four

assumptions:

1.

2.

3.

4.

Payload and associated passenger compartment weight may be

determined from the best current practice in the automobile

industry.

The weight of supporting structure and chassis will be proportional to the weight of payload, passenger compartment,

drive train, and battery. Again, good current practice indicates the constant of proportionality.

Drive train weight will be proportional to required power

output. Power output, in turn, will be proportional to

vehicle weight including a typical payload. Required output

will be determined by acceleration requirements.

Battery weight will be varied over a range of practical

possibility.

40
With these assumptions, the weights of the major components of the

electric car may be estimated using a simple mathematical model described in the Appendix. The component weights form the basis for estimating initial vehicle price. They also determine total vehicle weight,

which is essential for estimating range, energy use, and operating

costs. Computer models implementing this approach have been and are

being widely used for investigations of future electric vehicles. They

are made available by the Cal Tech Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a DOE contractor, on a computer system which is accessible in most cities of the

United States.

The third assumption above sizes the drive train of the electric

vehicle, and thus its speed and acceleration capability. For projections given here, the drive train was required to produce 28 horsepower

of output for each ton of vehicle weight including a standard 300-pound

payload. This capability approximately suffices for acceleration of

0-40 mph in 10 seconds on level ground, a capability substantially above

that of present electric vehicles such as the ETV-1 and the Rabbit conversion by South Coast Technology. Efficient cars with this capability

generally offer top speeds in excess of the 55 mph limit, plUS sufficient hill-climbing ability to enter freeways safely from up-hill onramps and to maintain safe speeds on most highway grades.

The adequacy of the 28 horsepower per ton drive train requirement

follows from the “road load” of an efficient electric car. Road load is

the power required to overcome the rolling resistance of a vehicle’s

tires and wheels, its aerodynamic drag, the force of gravity (while

ascending grades), and the inertia of the vehicle during acceleration.

The power required to overcome rolling resistance and aerodynamic

drag is modest at legal speeds in comparison with those for climbing

grades and for acceleration. The power to overcome rolling resistance

is proportional to speed and to vehicle weight. The power to overcome

aerodynamic drag rises rapidly at speeds above 30-40 mph (see Fig. 3.8).

Depending on vehicle weight, aerodynamic drag will equal tire rolling

resistance at speeds in the vicinity of 40-50 mph. For a vehicle weight

of about 3,500 pounds during cruise, like that of the ETV-l, the total

power requirement at constant speed on a level road would be under 10

horsepower at 45 mph.

Ascending an up-grade at constant speed requires additional power

to lift the car. Gradients are usually measured in percent, where a one

percent grade corresponds to a one-foot increase in elevation for each

hundred feet of travel. Highway gradients, on which safe speeds must be

maintained, are usually less than 2 or 3 percent, and on interstate

freeways do not exceed 6 percent. The extra power required to overcome

each percent of gradient is approximately equal to the power required to

overcome tire rolling resistance on level ground. Maintaining 45 mph on
10

8

6

4

2

0

0

SPEED, km/h

20 40 60 80 100

I I I I I

 AERODYNAMIC

DRAG TEST WEIGHT - 7

( cd = 0.35) A = 1.86 m2

Ibs kg -

6

4000 1814

“ 5

ROLLING

RESISTANCE

1

3000

2000 907 3

2

. 1000 453

1

I 1 1 I I I

10 20 30 40 50 60

SPEED, mph

Source: General Research Corporation

Figure 3.8 Road Load for Near-Term Subcompact Cars

a grade of about 3 percent would increase by a factor of 2 the power requirement for overcoming rolling resistance and aerodynamic drag alone

in a typical 3,500-pound vehicle.

Overcoming inertia during acceleration adds even higher power requirements at the acceleration capability assumed here for future vehicles (0-40 mph on level ground in 10 seconds). Computer simulations

have shown that this requires about 28 horsepower per ton, or a total of

almost 40 horsepower for a 3,500-pound vehicle. This is to be compared

with around 10 horsepower for level cruising at 45 mph, and 20 horsepower cruising at the same speed on a 2-1/2 percent gradient. The precise horsepower requirement per ton would vary a little with changes in

road load for overcoming tire rolling resistance and aerodynamic drag.

The changes are unimportant,

for the acceleration is used

and aerodynamic losses.

however, because most of the power required

to overcome inertia, not to overcome tire

42
Acceleration capability of O-30 mph in 10 seconds, like that of

the ETV-1, is usually adequate for keeping up with traffic. Figure 3.9

shows several measurements of the speed required to keep up with other

vehicles in light, moderate, and heavy traffic. Even in light traffic,

speed typically reaches 30 mph in about 10 seconds after a stop, and in

moderate or heavy traffic even slower increases of speed suffice.

The acceleration requirement of 0-40 mph in 10 seconds used in

this report is about the capability of many contemporary diesel cars and

low-performance gasoline cars such as VW Beetles. It is base

1

on a con3

sideration of up-hill on-ramps to freeways, which are common. To

enter the freeway at a reasonable speed for safe merging with traffic,

40 mph or above, the power requirement for the typical up-hill on-ramp

is about the same as that for the 0-40 mph acceleration on level ground

in 10 seconds.

Values assumed in this report for rolling resistance and aerodynamic drag are consistent with today’s tires and vehicle designs. While

bias-ply tires of recent years had rolling resistances of roughly 1.5

percent of the load they carried, radial-ply tires have brought this

down to 1.2 percent and below. The figures assumed here, 1.18 percent

and 1.08 percent for cars with near-term and advanced batteries, respectively, are to be compared with the value of 1.11 percent for the

tires selected for the ETV-1. Aerodynamic drag coefficients of US production cars have usually exceeded 0.5, though increased attention to

body design has given the VW Rabbit a drag coefficient of about 0.46 and

the new Chevrolet Citation about 0.42. The figure assumed here, 0.35,

is better than that of almost any car now in production, but above the

0.30 reported for the ETV-1.

3.5 THE TRADEOFFS BETWEEN RANGE AND COST

The characteristics of future electric vehicles will depend

strongly on resolution of a basic tradeoff between range and cost. For

a vehicle with given technology, payload, and acceleration capability,

both range and cost are determined by the size of battery selected. The

larger the battery, the longer the range and the greater the usefulness

of the electric car. But a larger battery also is more costly to buy

and replace; and its extra weight necessitates increased expenses for a

heavier basic vehicle with a more powerful drivetrain.

In the future, the tradeoff between range and cost will be

increasingly important because improved batteries will widen the

spectrum of possible choices. In the past, there was little freedom of

choice about battery size because capabilities of golf-car batteries

were so limited. Designers usually put as much battery as possible into

their vehicles, often as much as 40 to 50 percent of curb weight, but

battery power and energy output remained so low that acceleration and

range were inadequate.

43
l//UJq’(J33ds

w“

i=

44
In the future, designers will probably work with batteries

providing much higher specific energy and specific power. With more

energy and power per pound, the largest possible battery will no longer

be required to give reasonable acceleration and range. With a large but

still manageable battery, near-term vehicles might achieve twice the

range attainable with the minimum battery acceptable from the standpoint

of acceleration power. For vehicles with advanced batteries, the

maximum design ranges might be three times the minimum, or even more.

These spectrums of future possibilities are examined by using the

projection method of Sec. 3.4 to show how sticker price, life-cycle

cost, curb weight, and energy use of future electric vehicles might depend on urban driving range. Generally, the projections show that with

near-term batteries electric vehicles may offer ranges in excess of 100

miles, or life-cycle costs competitive with those of comparable conventional cars, but not both at once. Vehicles with advanced batteries,

however, might simultaneously provide both competitive costs and ranges

as great as 200 miles. Neither near-term nor advanced batteries lead to

initial prices for electric vehicles competitive with those of gasoline

vehicles even at the shortest possible design ranges.

Depending on battery size, projected four-passenger cars with

near-term batteries could offer:

o 50-170 mile urban range

o 0.32-0.56 kilowatt-hour-per-mile energy use (input to

battery charger)

o $6,500-$11,000 sticker prices (in 1980 dollars)

o 20.2-30.8 cents per mile life-cycle costs

The initial and life-cycle costs of the comparable ICE vehicle are projected to be $4,470 and 21.4 cents per mile. The maximum battery weight

assumed for these projections was 36 percent of vehicle test weight.

The minimum battery fraction, depending on battery type, was in the

range 20-24 percent of vehicle test weight. The lead-acid batteries

gave the least range --50 to 100 miles--but also the least life-cycle

cost, lower than that of the conventional vehicle for design ranges up

to 70 miles. The car with the near-term zinc-chlorine battery gave

life-cycle costs close to those of the conventional counterpart at its

minimum design range of 95 miles, and at all other ranges up to its 170-

mile maximum gave the lowest life-cycle costs of the near-term alternatives.

45
Depending on

advanced batteries

battery size, projected four-passenger cars with

would offer:

o 65-260-mile urban range

o 0.26-0.41 kilowatt-hours-per-mile energy use (input to

battery charger)

o $5,700-$9,500 sticker price (in 1980 dollars)

o 17.8-23.5 cents per mile life-cycle costs

The comparable conventional car was projected to offer a sticker price

of $5,140 and a life-cycle cost of 21.7 cents per mile. At all design

ranges, the sticker prices of the advanced electric cars exceed this

price, but their life-cycle costs are less at ranges up to roughly 200

miles. Battery sizes for the advanced zinc-chlorine car ranged from 17

to 35 percent of curb weight. For the car with the very high-power,

high-energy advanced lithium-metal sulfide battery, battery fractions

ranged from about 9 to 25 percent. The initial cost of the comparable

advanced ICE car is higher than that of the near-term ICE car because it

incorporates expensive lightweight materials. The life-cycle cost of

this car is also higher than that of the near-term car; gasoline savings

provided by its higher fuel economy are insufficient to offset the extra

depreciation costs due to its higher-cost, lighter-weight construction

(see Fig. 3.10).

The uncertainties in these projections are greatest for the cars

with advanced batteries. On the one hand, advanced batteries might be

developed earlier than projected here, during the 1980’s; on the other,

they may not be successfully developed until the next century, if ever.

When they do reach mass production, they may well have lesser capabilities, higher prices, and shorter useful lifetimes than those assumed for

these projections.

The projections are less uncertain for cars with near-term batteries. It appears likely that at least one of the near-term battery

developments will be successful. Which one, however, is less clear; it

may not be the one offering lowest cost or highest performance.

The projections for the comparable ICE vehicles are also uncertain. Projected life-cycle costs are based on 1980 gasoline prices

($1.25 per gallon) even though substantial increases in real gasoline

prices are probable for the future. An increase of $1.25 in gasoline

price per gallon (to a total of $2.50) would add four cents per mile to

the life-cycle costs for the comparable ICE cars. Each additional $1.25

increase would add another four cents per mile. Furthermore, assumed

advances in ICE car technology are very modest; they do not include

turbo-charged diesel engines, engine restart systems which eliminate

46
URBAN DRIVING RANGE, km

100 200 300 400

I I I

11000 - NEAR- Ni-Zn

TERM: ,

Zn-Cl 2

ADV.

5000 COMPARABLE ‘

-

ICE CARS {

SOURCE GENERAL RESEARCH CORP

1

o 50 100 150 200 250

URBAN DRIVING RANGE, mi

URBAN DRIVING RANGE, km

100 2 3 400

1

NEARTERM:Ni-Fe Ni-Zn

Pb-ACID Zn-C1 2

ADVANCED

ICE CARS

SOURCE GENERAL RESEARCH CORP

50 100 150 200 250

URBAN DRIVING RANGE, miles

2000 

- .

E

32

28

24

20

18

URBAN DRIVING RANGE, km

100 200 300

I I I

4

0

ICE CARS

- 10

SOURCE GENERAL RESEARCH CORP

I I

50 100 150 200 250

URBAN DRIVING, RANGE mi.

URBAN DRIVING RANGE, km

100 200 300 400

1 1 ! I 1 I

Zn-C12

NEAR.

TERM: Ni-Fe

SOURCE GENERAL RESEARCH CORP

1 , 1 1 , 1 1 1 1 i I

50 100 150 200 250

URBAN DRIVING RANGE. miles

Assumptions: Mid-1980 dollars

Acceleration Capability: 0-40 mph in 10 seconds

Driving Cycle: SAE J227a, Schedule D

Source: General Research Corporation

Figure 3.10 Design Tradeoffs for Four-Passenger Electric Cars

47
idling during stops, continuously variable transmissions, Brayton or

Stirling cycle engines, or any of the other innovations which may substantially reduce fuel consumption and life-cycle costs (though they

generally increase sticker prices). Other advances may also be

achieved, such as lower-loss tires or lighter structures, but these tend

to benefit electric and conventional vehicles equally.

3.6 REPRESENTATIVE FUTURE ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Though short-range electric vehicles are cheapest to own and operate, many motorists will probably prefer the extra utility afforded by

longer range, despite the extra cost. If electric vehicles are marketed

in large quantities, competing models will probably offer a variety of

ranges.

In this section, several representative future electric cars are

selected from the spectrum of possibilities developed in Sec. 3.5, for

more detailed description and for subsequent use in estimating impacts

of wide scale vehicle electrification.

For near-term vehicles, 100 miles appears to be a representative

future range capability. This is the adopted goal of DOE development

programs for the late 1980's, and has also been stated as a goal in GM's

announcements about its electric car development efforts. It is further

supported by market data to be discussed in Chapter 6, which indicates

that the average motorist purchasing an electric car for urban use as a

second car would prefer an urban range capability of 85-95 miles, given

the tradeoffs between range and price projected in Sec. 3.5. For other

applications, which involve more long-distance driving, more range would

probably be desired.

For near-term four-passenger cars with 100-mile range:

o Sticker price would be $8,100-8,500, 75-80 percent greater

than the $4,740 price of the competitive ICE car.

o Life-cycle cost would be 22.0-26.6 cents per mile, versus

21.4 cents per mile for the comparable ICE car.

o Electricity input to the battery charger would be 0.4-0.45

kilowatt hours per mile.

For the electric vehicle with advanced batteries, more range would

be appropriate because it entails less ‘expense than in the near-term

care For cars with a given range, an advanced battery can be lighter

and less expensive than any of the near-term batteries. Increasing

battery size (and car range) by a given amount is therefore less

expensive for the advanced-battery car, because a smaller portion of its

total cost is affected. One hundred-fifty miles appears to be a

48
reasonable expectation for the representative car with advanced batteries. Preferred ranges of 125-150 miles are indicated by the market

data in Chapter 6, given the range-versus-cost tradeoffs of Sec. 3.5.

For advanced four-passenger electric cars with 150-mile range:

o Sticker price would be $6,800-7,050, 32-37 percent above the

$5,140 price of the comparable ICE car.

o Life-cycle cost would be 19.4-20.1 cents per mile, 8-11

percent lower than the 21.8 cents per mile projected for the

comparable ICE car.

o Electricity input to the battery charger would be about 0.3

kilowatt-hours per mile.

Further details of these representative near-term and advanced cars are

given in Table 3.5.

The basic factors behind the higher sticker price of the representative electric cars are the weight and cost of the battery, which far

exceed the weight and cost of the gasoline tank they supplant. The contribution of battery weight to vehicle weight is illustrated in Fig.

3.11 for the lightest and heaviest of the representative near-term

electric cars. For comparison, weight is also shown for the comparable

ICE car. Battery weight is the major contributor to the extra weight of

the electric cars. Moreover, the extra structure and chassis weight

required to carry the weight of the battery also contributes significantly to the total extra weight of the electric cars. For the cars

with the nickel-zinc and zinc-chlorine batteries, for example, extra

structure and chassis weight is about 250 lbs. Roth battery and extra

structure contribute to the extra initial costs of the electric vehicle.

More details of the projected initial and life-cycle costs of representative future cars are presented in Table 3.6. The major differences between the electric cars and the comparable ICE cars included in

the tables are:

o Cost of the battery and replacements, which add far more to

initial and life-cycle costs than those of the gasoline

tank.

o Cost of capital, which is higher for the electric car because of the higher initial price and the higher average

value of the electric car through its life.

o Costs of repairs and maintenance, which are projected to be

much less for the electric vehicles.

o Costs of energy, which for the electric vehicles are about

half as much per mile as for the comparable ICE vehicles.

49
Battery Type

Battery Specific

Energy, Wh/lb’

Nominal Range

(urban), mi

Curb Weight, lb

Battery System

Weight, lb

Sticker Price,

mid–1980 dollars

Life-Cycle Cost,

1980 cents/mi

Electricity Use,

kWh/mi

Fuel Economy, mpg

(urban driving)

Assumptions:

Electricity Price

Gasoline Price

ETV-1

(1980)

Pb-Acid

(leadacid)

16.9

60

3260

1140

8480

26.1

0.38

--

TABLE 3.5

REPRESENTATIVE FUTURE ELECTRIC CARS

Near-Term (by 1990) ————

Pb-Acid

(leadacid)

22.7

100

4090

1580

8520

.?3.9

0.40

- -

Ni-Fe

(nickel-

—-— iron)

27.2

100

3290

1050

8400

24.9

0.6L

- -

$0.03 per kilowatt-hour

$1.25 per gallon

Electric Vehicle Life 12 years

ICE Vehicle Life 10 years

Annu~l Travel 10.000 miles

Ni-Zn Zn-C12

(nickel- (zinc-

.?!.!!Q_ chlorine) (ICE) *

31.8

100

3030

890

8130

26. 6

0.38

.

-.

Urban Driving Cycle SAL J227ci, Schedule O, for electric cars,

Fe(ieral Urban Driving Cycle for ICI: c,]rs

Acceleration Capability 0-40 mph in 10 seconds

Passenger Capacity Four persons plus luggage

*—

Internal combustion engine

34.0

100

2960

840

8120

22.0

0.45

--

--

--

2010

--

4740

21.f4

-.

33.0

Suurce:

Advanced (by 2000)

Zn-C12

(zincchlorine) .——

45.4

150

2300

600

7050

19.4

0.31

--

Li-MS

(lithiummetal

sulfide)

68.0

150

2260

400

681 0

20.1

0.30

--

Q!ZQ*

--

--

1810

--

5140

21.8

—-

35.6

General Rese~rch Corpor~tion. Performance

and cost estimates for all vehicles were

made with the ELVEC and EVWAC computer

models. Costs are in mid-1980 dollars and

are based on mass production of all vehicles

(300,000 units or more per year).

J.

Energy delivered by the battery in a full discharge over three hours, in watt-hours per pound of battery weight

50
4000

3000

2000

1000

0

\

NERGY

\

TORAGE

\

\

PROPULSION 11%I

TURE

UPPER

BODY 20% 28%

Source:

l - z

General Research Corporation

400

Figure 3.11 Weight Breakdowns for Representative Near-Term

Four-Passenger Cars

51
co. . m

.

!+

u .-l u

. u r-l

u 0

f-l

N

u

4

. m

m -3

!-l I

In

.

In In

!-( I

u

Ln

.

c-l

(1 I

o

0

0

(-1

o .

0

4

.4 o 0

l-l

r+

o

L4

a

l-l

m

!-l

4

52
The savings on repair and maintenance are based on data showing

that the ICE system in conventional cars has accounted for some 60 to 78 percent of all labor hours and parts sales for repair and maintenance.

For electric motor-controller systems, which have many fewer moving

parts and components with much longer lives, it was assumed that very

little service would be required. The same assumption was extended to

the propulsion battery, though there is little relevant experience.

Especially for battery types which have not been in service, reliability

is uncertain. It is also possible that maintenance costs for future ICE

cars will be considerably reduced, despite complex pollution controls,

by electronic ignition and control systems, long-life spark plugs,

tamper-proof controls, and improved quality control.

The fuel prices for the projected ICE cars are 4 cents per mile at

the mid-1980 price of gasoline ($1.25 per gallon). Each rise of $1.25

per gallon adds 4 cents per mile to the ICE life-cycle cost projections.

Major shifts in relative attractiveness of electric and conventional

cars could result from gasoline price increases. For the projected

life-cycle costs of conventional cars to equal the life-cycle costs

projected for the near-term representative electric cars, these price

increases for gasoline would be required:16

o 63 percent for lead-acid battery cars (to $2.05 per gallon)

o 88 percent for nickel-iron battery cars (to $2.35 per

gallon)

o 105 percent for nickel-zinc cars (to $2.55 per gallon)

o 15 percent for zinc-chlorine cars (to $1.44 per gallon)

The percentage increases required to equalize costs are very sensitive

to details of projected battery life and cost. The individual figures

given above are uncertain; but overall, it appears likely that price

increases for gasoline of 75 to 100 percent are probably required to

raise life-cycle costs of comparable ICE cars to equal those of future

cars with near-tern batteries.

It is noteworthy that the advanced cars are projected to be cheaper on a life-cycle basis than the comparable ICE cars (Table 2.6) despite the assumption of low 1980 gasoline prices. This is the result of

the low weight, long life, and modest cost projected for the advanced

batteries. Even if these projections materialize, however, lower operating costs may seem unimportant to many motorists in relation to the 35

percent higher sticker prices and the range limitation (assuming gasoline is readily available).

If petroleum alone were used to generate recharge energy, the

energy requirements of the near-term electric cars would be equivalent

53
to those of conventional cars getting 26 to 30 mpg (miles per gallon) in

urban driving. The advanced-battery cars would increase this equivalent

fuel economy to 37 to 38 mpg. This is no more than competitive with the

projected conventional cars offering the same passenger space and

acceleration, built with the same materials, using conventional ICE

drivetrains, which might get 33 to 36 mpg in urban driving. If coal

alone were used to generate electricity and produce synthetic gasoline,

however, the near-term electric cars would offer the equivalent of 44 to

50 mpg, and the advanced battery cars 64 to 67 mpg. This results from

the inefficiencies of using coal rather than petroleum to produce

gasoline. Table 3.7 summarizes these projections.

The ‘comparable ICE cars” discussed here do not necessarily exhibit the ultimate or even likely future potential of ICE propulsion, a

subject beyond the scope of this analysis. Instead, they are included

only to show how conventional automotive technology of the 1980's might

compare with the electric vehicles projected here, assuming both offer

the same passenger accommodations and acceleration capability. More advanced technology may lead to much higher fuel economies than the 33-36

mpg projected here. Some possible innovations (much improved tires,

aerodynamics, and structures) would benefit both electric and ICE vehicles. Others, notably lighter, more efficient ICES and continuously

variable transmissions, could improve considerably the desirability of

ICE vehicles relative to electric vehicles.

In an electric vehicle, around 40 percent of the energy input to

the battery charger may be used to overcome road load, as illustrated in

Fig. 3.12. On the other hand, the electric energy input to the charger

represents only 28 to 30 percent of the energy available from the combustion of the fossil fuels used to produce it. In an ICE vehicle the

situation is reversed: petroleum is refined and delivered to the gasoline tank with high efficiency, but in the internal combustion engine

soline , efficiency in urban driving may be only 10 to 20

Use of regenerative braking in electric vehicles can greatly

reduce losses which would otherwise appear in friction brakes, even

though friction braking must still be included (Fig. 3. 12). For safe

and predictable braking, regeneration alone is unsatisfactory because it

is effective only on the driven wheels, front or rear, rather than all

four wheels. Without regeneration, the 100-mile range of the car described in Fig. 3. 12 would be reduced to about 81 miles.

So far, all ranges and energy uses which have been projected here

for future electric vehicles are nominal design values: they would be

achieved only with a battery in good condition (during perhaps the first

two-thirds of its useful life), and only in the given urban driving

schedule, on level roads without winds. Near the end of battery life,

54
TABLE 3.7

EQUIVALENT FUEL ECONOMIES OF FOUR-PASSENGER ELECTRIC CARS

RECHARGED FROM PETROLEUM OR COAL RESOURCES

Near-Term Cars

Lead-acid

Nickel-iron

Nickel-zinc

Zinc-chlorine

(Comparable ICE car)†

Advanced Cars

Zinc–chlorine

Lithium-metal sulfide

(Comparable ICE car)†

Equivalent Miles per Gallon*

Oil Coal

29 50

26 45

30 53

26 44

(33.0) (33.0)

37 64

38 67

(35.6) (35.6)

Assumed Conversion Efficiencies (taken from Ref. 16):

Crude oil to gasoline 89 percent

Crude oil to electricity 28 percent

Coal to gasoline 55 percent

Coal to electricity 30 percent

Efficiencies include losses and energy inputs in extraction of

the energy resource from the ground, transportation and conversion to its fixed form for vehicular use, and delivery to the

vehicle.

Source: General Research Corporation

*

Equivalent miles per gallon is the urban fuel economy of an ICE car

requiring the same use of petroleum (for gasoline) or coal (for synthetic gasoline) as would be needed to generate recharge electricity

for the electric car.

†’ The comparable ICE cars offer the same passenger compartments and

acceleration capability as their electric counterparts, are built

with the same materials, and use conventional ICE drive trains. Their

fuel economies are projected for urban driving.

55
NOTES

‘ 250 ‘

● NEAR-TERM TECHNOLOGY

● LEAD-ACID BATTERY

● 4-PASSENGER CAR 25

● 160-km DESIGN RANGE

. SAE J227a D CYCLE

BATTERY

I

54

(80°10)

MOTOR-CONTROLLER 45

(82.5940)

TRANSAXLE

I

13

(94%)

BATTERY

SYSTEM

LOSSES:

31 0/0

ELECTROMECHANICAL

LOSSES:

24%

164

38

AERODYNAMIC 10 FRICTION

DRAG TIRES BRAKING:

4 %

SOURCE: GENERAL RESEARCH CORPORATION ROAD LOAD:41%

Source: General Research Corporation

Figure 3.12 Energy Use in Urban Driving (in Watt-Hours per Mile,

with Component Efficiencies in Parentheses)

range in nominal urban driving would be reduced up to 20 percent. Nonnominal driving conditions, furthermore, can considerably affect the

range and energy use. On the one hand, range in the Federal Urban

Driving Cycle, range in the Federal Highway Cycle, range in the nominal

urban driving cycle, and range at a constant speed of 55-60 mph are all

quite close together. On the other hand, changes in battery temperature

can affect range by a factor of two; low constant speeds in highway

56
driving can more than double range; 15-mph headwinds or tailwinds in 55-

mph highway driving can decrease range some 20 percent or increase it 60

percent; and on long upgrades range can be sharply reduced. Energy use

varies almost as widely. This is summarized in Table 3.8.

TABLE 3.8

EFFECT ON RANGE OF CHANGED DRIVING CONDITIONS

Driving Condition

Urban Driving

SAE J227a, Schedule D

Federal Urban Driving Cycle

Battery Temperature = 32°F

Battery Temperature = 10°F

Highway Driving

Federal Highway Cycle

Constant 60 mph

Constant 50 mph

Constant 40 mph

Constant 30 mph

Constant 55 mph

with 15 mph headwind

with 15 mph tailwind

on 3 percent upgrade

Range, mi

100

113

65

123

106

98

133

179

235

115

79

164

37

Source: General Research Corporation

Energy Use,

kWh/mi

0.40

0.37

0.38

0.41

0.34

0.29

0.24

0.38

0.50

0.29

0.85

All ranges estimated by the ELVEC simulation for a fourpassenger car with near-term lead-acid battery and design

range of 100 miles.

57
The nominal driving schedule used to estimate design range,

Schedule D of SAE Recommended Procedure J227a, is the most demanding of

four schedules recommended by the Society of Automotive Engineers for

electric vehicle testing. Each cycle of the schedule requires 122

seconds and traverses about 0.95 mile. Starting from rest, the cycle

requires a 28-second acceleration to 45 mpg, a 50-second constant speed

cruise, a 10-second coast, and a 9-second braking to zero mph, followed

by a stop. The Federal Urban Driving Cycle used for evaluating pollutant emissions and fuel economy of conventional cars is far more complex. It lasts 1372 seconds and is based on actual records of vehicle

operation in an urban area, both on city streets and on a freeway. It

remains to be determined which of these cycles is the better indicator

of actual EV range and energy use in average urban driving.

Battery temperature can have a major effect on battery output and

vehicle range. Available battery capacity may change as much as 6

percent for a 10°F change in battery temperature, depending on battery

design and on initial battery temperature. The results in Table 3.8

are based on this high assumed sensitivity to temperature, and may represent upper bounds on the magnitude of likely range changes in the

future. Insufficient data was available to estimate associated changes

in energy use. Because of this potential sensitivity, batteries in

electric vehicles for cold climates are very likely to be housed in

insulated compartments, with heating available from the source of recharge power. In ordinary operation a considerable amount of energy is

lost as heat in the battery. Supplemental heat from an external source

will probably be necessary only for cars left idle for long periods, or

in very cold weather. The electrolyte of a discharged battery freezes

at temperatures well above 0°F, a condition which must be avoided to

avoid battery damage. High electrolyte temperatures must also be

avoided; they reduce battery life.

In highway driving near 55 mph, electric car ranges are typically

like those attained in nominal urban driving. The effects of lower

speeds on highway range can be dramatic, however, as can the effects of

winds, A 3-percent grade affects range even more drastically. The case

in Table 3.8 is extreme because a 3-percent grade 37 miles long implies

a total ascent of almost 5900 feet. Though freeway grades are occasionally steeper (up to 6 percent) , they are very seldom long enough to involve so great a change of elevation.

Heating and cooling of passenger compartments pose special problems for electric vehicles. ICE vehicles utilize waste engine heat,

which is sufficient for passenger comfort in all but the coldest climates, where an auxiliary gasoline heater is often added. Electric

drive is so efficient, however, that relatively little waste heat is

available. Wider use of auxiliary gasoline heaters would be one possible remedy. Another would be efficient use of electric heating, which

58
might be used to heat occupied seats directly rather than the entire car

interior. Alternatively, a heat pump might be employed. Since a heat

pump is reversible, it could also act as an air conditioner to provide

cooling on hot days. Full-time use of an air conditioner or heat pump

with the capacity typical for conventional vehicles would reduce the

range of an electric vehicle roughly 15 percent. On most days, of

course, this would be acceptable since the full 100-mile range would be

required relatively infrequently.

So far, comparisons between representative future electric and ICE

vehicles have been limited to the case of four-passenger cars. Generally, however, the comparisons remain valid for larger cars and for light

trucks (pickups and vans). For example, the sticker price of the fourpassenger car with zinc-chlorine battery was 71 percent above the sticker price of the comparable ICE car (Table 3.5). The sticker price of

the five-passenger version of this car is also 71 percent higher than

that of the comparable five-passenger ICE car. Within a few percentage

points, similar car comparisons also hold true for other key vehicle

characteristics such as curb weight, life-cycle cost, and energy use,

and for other vehicle sizes and types. A complete set of descriptors

for comparable zinc-chlorine EVS and comparable ICE vehicles is given in

Table 3.9. These and similar projections for EVS with other batteries

demonstrate that comparisons drawn between four-passenger electric and

ICE cars generally prevail for the other vehicles as well.

Under detailed examination, electric light trucks compare a little

less favorably to their ICE counterparts than do electric four-passenger

cars. Here, as in the four-passenger car, a 300-pound payload was

assumed throughout. Had the light trucks been loaded to their maximum

design payload of 1190 pounds, the electric trucks would have compared

even less favorably to the ICE trucks because their range would be substantially reduced. The range of the ICE trucks is similarly reduced by

loading, but shorter range is less important for ICE trucks because

refueling is so much faster.

It is possible that small, low-performance two-passenger cars may

play a significant role in future urban travel. At present, little more

than 1 percent of cars sold in the US seat only two passengers, and most

of them are sold as sport cars for high performance. Drastic changes in

gasoline price and availability, far exceeding those of the 1970’s,

would probably be required to effect a major market shift to low-performance two-passenger cars. Should this happen, however, there is no

reason to expect that electric cars built with the technology described

here would gain any relative advantage in price or capability over ICE

cars of this same small size. Like the larger electric cars, twopassenger electrics would be 70 to 80 percent more expensive to buy, and

equally limited in range.

59
o o

:

$J

“d

?

● A

G

● ●

60
Two-passenger electric cars may nevertheless play a prominent role

among the first electric cars to come to market. So long as electric

cars are purchased by only a few percent of motorists, who will probably

differ sharply from the average motorist, a large proportion may be twopassenger cars. The first GM electric car may well offer only two

seats--but it needs to appeal to only 2 to 3 percent of new car buyers

in order to succeed.

61
1.

2*

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

110

12.

REFERENCES FOR SECTION 3

James E. Homans, Self-Propelled Vehicles, Theo. Audel and Company,

New York, 1908.

James J. Flink, America Adopts the Automobile, 1895-1910, The MIT

Press, Cambridge, 1970.

Third Annual Report to Congr ess for FY 1979/ Electric and Hybrid

Vehicle Program, DOE/CS-0130~ US Department of Energyr Washington,

D.C., January 1980.

Near-Term Electric Vehicle, Phase II --Final Report, SRD-79-076,

General Electric Company, Schenectady, New York, March 1980.

See Ref. 1, p. 61.

C. H. Chi, P. Carr, and P. C. Symon, ‘Modeling of Zinc-Chloride

Batteries for Electric Vehicles,” paper 79914s, Proceedings of the

14th Inter-Society Energy Conversion Engineering Conference,

American Chemical Society, Washington, D.C., 1979.

P. A. Nelson et al., Development of Lithium/Metal Sulfide Batteries at Argonne National Laboratory: Summary Report for 1978,

ANL-794, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Ill., JUly 1979.

Electric Vehicles and Other Alternatives to the Internal Combustion Engine, Joint Hearings Before the Committee on Commerce and

Public Works, US Senate~ 90th Congress~ on S.451 and S.4S38 March

14-17 and April 10, 1967, US Government Printing Office, Washington, 1967=

See Ref. 4, Section 5.

R. Schwarz, “Design and Development of a High-Performance TwoPassenger Electric Automobile,W to be presented at the International Conference on Automotive Electronics and Electric

Vehicles sponsored by the Institute of Electrical and Electronic

Engineers and The Society of Automotive

September 1980.

Engineers, Detroit,

‘Battle Brewing in Europe for Small-Car

News, April 28, 1980.

Automatics,” Automotive

D. Jordan, General Research Corporation Electric/Hubrid Vehicle

Simulation Program (ELVEC) User’s Manual, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., JUne 1979.

62
13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

J. Brennand et al., Electric and Hybrid Performance and Design

Goal Determination Study, SAN/1215-1, Energy Research and Development Administration, Washington, D.C., August 1977.

Cost of Owning and Operating an Automobile, published periodically

by the Federal Highway Administration, US Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C.

W. Hamilton, Electric Automobiles, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New

York, 1980. pp 197-198

E. Hughes et al., Iang-Term Energy Alternatives for Automotive

Propulsion: Synthetic Fuels Versus Battery/Electric Systems,

Report No. 5, Center for Resource and lhwironmental System

Studies, SRI International, Menlo Park, Calif., August 1976.

H. G. Mueller and Victor Wouk, “Efficiency of Coal Use, Electricity for EVS Versus Synfuels for ICES,” Paper 800109, Society of

Automotive Engineers, Warrendale, PA, February 1980.

Paul D. Agarwal, “Impact of Electric Cars on National Energy

Consumption,” Paper 800111, Society of Automotive Engineers,

Warrendale, PA, February 1980.

G. W. Vinal, Storage Batteries, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York,

1955.

63
4 HYBRID VEHICLE SYSTEMS

401 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

A hybrid-electric vehicle includes an internal combustion engine

in addition to an electric propulsion motor and storage battery. There

are many workable arrangements for sharing propulsion duties between

engine and motor, giving rise to a broad spectrum of possible hybrids.

At one end of this spectrum are hybrids much like pure EVs; they usually

operate all-electrically, derive most of their energy from electric

utilities, and employ their ICES only to extend range on long trips. At

the other end of the spectrum are hybrids much like pure ICE vehicles;

they derive all their energy from gasoline and employ their electric

components simply to increase the average efficiency and reduce the

average emissions of their ICES. In between are vehicles with many of

the advantages, and disadvantages, of both electric and ICE propulsion.

Hybrids were conceived long ago in attempts to combine the best

attributes of both electric and ICE propulsion. A patent granted in

1905, in fact, diagrams ‘he hybrid configuration which today enjoys

greatest popularity. A few hybrids were built and sold in the United

States after 1910, but the combination of ICE, electric motor, and

battery which eventually captured the entire motor vehicle market made

no direct use of the electric motor for propulsion. Instead, the

battery and motor were employed only to start the ICE, as Charles

Kettering’s ‘self-starter” for the 1912 Cadillac. For most of the years

since, market forces have favored no larger role for the electric motor

and battery in motor vehicles.

Interest in hybrids was reawakened in the 1960s, when worsening

air pollution forced a major reevaluation of the use of ICES for

vehicular propulsion. The resultant consensus, however, was that

hybrids were complex and costly. In 1967, a panel of experts convened

by the Department of Commerce to investigate electrically-powered

vehicles dismissed hybrids in a single paragraph as economically 2

uncompetitive. It is worth noting that the panel dismissed its

assigned topic, electric vehicles, almost as briefly, and then went on

with incisive foresight and broadened scope to recommend what has since

come to pass (national air quality and emission standards clean-up of

conventional vehicles) .

Hybrid R&D continued nevertheless with both government and industry sponsorship, and after 1973 its objectives shifted increasingly to

conservation of petroleum. In 1976 an experimental program at Ford

Motor Company showed potential fuel economy improvements of 30 to 100

percent with a hybrid configuration3resembling a conventional ICE system

with a much enlarged starter motor. The electric motor was used for

all vehicle movement up to 10 to 15 mph, not just to start the ICE; but

because all battery recharge came from regenerative braking or the ICE,

no use was made of electric utility power. Also in 1976, a small business described a hybrid with a larger electric motor which was used more

64
extensively to assist a small ICE in propelling the vehicle. In this

hybrid, recharge energy from electric utilities was deliberately used to

supplant gasoline use.

Today, hybrid R&D is aimed at use of electric energy from utilities and at vehicles with sufficient all-electric capability to remain

operable even in the complete absence of gasoline. Because of the resultant emphasis on electricity stored in batteries, these hybrids are

nearly as dependent as pure electric vehicles on improved batteries with

more energy per pound and much longer life. They also require most or

all of the electric drive train components of the electric vehicle.

Probably because of these factors, most developers have focused on the

pure electric vehicle, postponing the hybrid (with the complication of

its added ICE) until satisfactory electric vehicles become available as

a starting point.

Despite their slower start in R&D, hybrids ultimately may prove

superior to pure electric vehicles for many motorists. The ICE effectively can relieve the range limitation of the pure electric car, or

raise its acceleration to equal that of ICE cars, or both. Yet the

hybrid can simultaneously be no more expensive, and retain some or all

of the electric vehicle’s capability to electrify travel with energy

from electric utilities.

A “range-extension" hybrid with almost all the desirable properties of the pure electric vehicle is derived from the all-electric

vehicle by substituting a small ICE for part of the propulsion battery.

The ICE is just large enough to power continuous cruising on the highway

(15-25 hp). For simplicity and efficiency, it has a direct mechanical

connection to the electric motor shaft. The ICE operates only for extended highway travel. In urban driving, it is disconnected and the

vehicle operates electrically. This arrangement not only eliminates the

range limitation which is the principal disadvantage of the electric

car, but is also among the simplest of the hybrid configurations to

build. In addition, it minimizes problems of controlling air pollutant

and noise emissions, because the ICE would operate very little in urban

areas.

With a useful electric range of 60 miles, the future range-extension hybrid could electrify about as much of the travel of a typical US

auto as the pure electric car with 100-mile maximum range. Yet the

hybrid could be both lighter and cheaper, with unlimited driving range

on its ICE. Projected sticker prices for such hybrids using near-term

lead-acid and nickel-zinc batteries are $7,700 and $8,000, about 5

percent under those of comparable electric cars (though still 65 to 70

percent above those of comparable ICE cars). Projected life-cycle costs

for these hybrids are 23.5 and 26.0 cents per mile, 2 percent under

those of the electric versions (but 10 to 20 percent above those of the

comparable ICE cars) .

65
With the advanced lithium-metal sulfide battery and a useful

electric range of 60 miles, the price of the range-extension hybrid

might be about $6,200, 20 percent more than that of the comparable ICE

vehicle. Life-cycle cost might be only 19.3 cents per mile, 11 percent

less than that of the ICE despite low 1980 gasoline prices.

A “high-performance” hybrid differs from the range-extension

hybrid in that it employs a larger ICE, a smaller electric motor, and a

smaller battery. It is capable of all-electric operation at low speeds

and accelerations, but makes the ICE instantly available when high

acceleration and speed are demanded. The combined power of the ICE and

the electric motor suffice for acceleration competitive with that of

conventional ICE cars, and range on the ICE is unlimited. Yet the highperformance hybrid might be less expensive than either the pure electric

car or the range-extension hybrid. Its drawbacks are reduced range and

acceleration in all-electric operation, and increased use of gasoline in

typical driving. Furthermore, the stop-start operation required of the

ICE (to assist with acceleration whenever necessary in urban driving)

imposes significant technical difficulties and risks exceeding those of

the range-extension hybrid.

Development and construction of a high-performance hybrid was

begun in 1980 for the Department of Energy by General Electric and

Chrysler, the team which completed the all-electric ETV-1 in late 1979.

The high-performance hybrid is designated HTV-1. In the preliminary

design study preceding the HTV-1 development and construction contract,

the acceleration capability of the GE/Chrysler design was estimated at

O-56 mph in 12.6 seconds, equal to that of the ICE car chosen for

reference, a five-passenger 1978 Chevelle Malibu V-6 updated to 1985

conditions. Price of the HTV-1 design in mass production was estimated

to be 35 percent higher than that of the updated reference car, but

life-cycle costs were projected to be about equal to those of the

reference car. Range and acceleration of the GE HTV-1 preliminary

design in all-electric operation were not reported in the summary of the

design phase of the project, but would be below those of the all- 4

electric and range-extension hybrid vehicles described in this report.

Estimated fuel use of the preliminary high-performance hybrid

design is 63 percent of4that which would be required by the reference

car projected for 1985. The range-extension hybrid, with its greater

reliance on electric drive and utility power, would use around 20

percent of the fuel required by the ICE car comparable to it.

This chapter first discusses hybrid vehicles and drive trains as

an extension of the electric vehicle technology presented in Chapter 3.

Then it describes and compares representative examples of projected

future range-extension hybrids and projected future high-performance

hybrids.

66
4.2 VEHICLE DESIGN

Hybrid Configurations

The series hybrid configuration is the most obvious of the major

hybrid propulsion alternatives. It may be thought of as an electric

propulsion system to which an auxiliary engine and generator are added.

This is illustrated at the top of Fig. 4.1.

INTERNAL

COMBUSTION — GENERATOR ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION DIFFERENTIAL

ENGINE

BATTERY CONTROLLER

1 1 I

SERIES HYBRID

CLUTCH

m ELECTRIC

MOTOR TRANSMISSION DIFFERENTIAL

I

BATTERY CONTROLLER

PARALLEL HYBRID

CLUTCH

INTERNAL

COMBUSTION

ENGINE I

TRANSMISSION DIFFERENTIAL

BATTERY CONTROLLER

CLUTCH

I 1

FLYWHEEL HYBRID

Figure 4.1 Basic Hybrid

67

Configuration
The role played by the engine and generator in the series hybrid

depends on their size. An engine-generator set with sufficient output

to drive the electric motor at its maximum rated power make the battery

unnecessary, and reduce the electrical equipment to performing functions

ordinarily assigned to the transmission. This is the arrangement now

used in diesel-railroad locomotives; it was introduced in highway vehicles as long ago as 1908. With smaller engine generator sets, the bat-

 tery becomes necessary to meet peak electricity demands of the propulsion motor. Very small engine generator sets lead to vehicles approaching the pure electric vehicle in capability. In any of these arrangements, recharge power for the battery may be derived either from electric utilities or the on-board generator. The larger the battery, the

more use may be made of electric utilities.

The advantages of the series configuration include:

o Capability for all-electric operation.

o Regenerative braking.

o Constant-power ICE operation with high consequent ICE

efficiency and low pollutant emissions.

The disadvantages include:

o The high weight and cost of an ICE and generator in addition

to an electric motor large enough to meet all propulsive

power requirements.

o The high losses in passing all power from the ICE through

both a generator and a motor before it reaches the driven

wheels.

The parallel hybrid configuration is the principal alternative to

the series configuration. The parallel configuration provides direct

mechanical paths between the driven wheels and both the ICE and electric

motor. This eliminates the weight and cost of the generator in the

series configuration, as well as electrical losses in transmitting power

from the ICE to the driven wheels. In general, however, it also eliminates the possibility of operating the ICE at constant speed and load,

which tends to reduce ICE efficiency and increase pollutant emissions.

The parallel hybrid may be regarded as an ICE drive train with an

electric motor added to assist the ICE with maximum power demands and to

provide regenerative braking. Alternatively, this same configuration

may be regarded as a complete electric drive train with an ICE added to

assist the electric motor and battery with both power for high acceleration and energy for long-range cruising. The configuration is illustrated at the center of Fig. 4.1. Just one version is shown; in others

the locations of the electric motor and ICE may be interchanged, or the

68
ICE and motor may be given separate inputs to the transmission so they

may run at different speeds, or the transmission may be used between the

ICE and motor while the motor drives the differential directly. All

these arrangements offer the essential feature of the parallel hybrid:

a direct mechanical path from both ICE and motor to driven wheels.

The advantages of the parallel hybrid configuration include:

o Capability for all-electric operation.

o Regenerative braking.

o High efficiency from the ICE to the driven wheels.

The disadvantages include:

o ICE operation at varying speed and load.

o Simultaneous control of ICE and motor are generally necessar y

A flywheel hybrid is sometimes distinguished as a separate hybridelectric configuration. It amounts to a parallel hybrid in which a flywheel is added as a short-term energy store. This is illustrated at the

bottom of Fig. 4.1. A successful flywheel and associated transmission

could also do much to improve either a pure electric or pure ICE drive.

The advantage of the flywheel approach is high power capability at

high efficiency. With peak power demands met from a flywheel, both ICE

and electric motor could be smaller in the flywheel hybrid than in the

simpler parallel hybrid. Regeneration efficiency might be improved by

avoiding the electrical losses in the round-trip of braking energy

through the electric motor, controller, and battery. The disadvantages

of the flywheel hybrid are the extra weight, cost,5complexity, and technical risk associated with the flywheel subsystem.

Given today’s needs for increasing reliance on utility electricity

rather than gasoline to propel vehicles, the parallel hybrid configuration is generally preferred. In the Phase 1 design competition of DOE’s

Near-Term Hybrid Vehicle Program, all four contractors chose parallel

hybrid configurations. 4

Such alternatives as the flywheel hybrid (or a

similar hybrid with a hydraulic accumulator) were rejected as technically uncertain or insufficiently beneficial, or both. The flywheel

hybrid, in particular, provides net benefits if--and only if--the

necessary flywheel and transmission can be sufficiently light, longlived, reliable, and inexpensive. A flywheel subsystem for this sort of

application is being developed for DOE’S Electric Test Vehicle ETV-2,but

has encountered serious setbacks in testing. The ETV-2 development

lags behind that of the companion ETV-1 discussed in Chapter 2.

69
Within the parallel hybrid configuration, there remains a wide

spectrum of possible designs. At one extreme, the ICE would run continuously much as in a conventional car, with occasional help from the

electric motor to provide high acceleration and possibly high speed. At

the other extreme, the electric subsystem would be used alone for most

travel, with occasional assistance from the internal combustion engine

to meet driving demands beyond the sole capability of the electric subsystem. Most hybrid work of the late 1960s and early 1970s used the

electric drive to help a small, continuously-running ICE, an arrangement

which decreased the load fluctuations on the ICE and thereby improved

its operating efficiencies and pollutant emissions. In the late 1970s,

this approach has been replaced by the alternative in which the ICE only

operates occasionally to help a basic electric propulsion system. This

arrangement provides greater opportunities for supplanting gasoline use

with electricity from utilities, and gives a basic electric operational

capability even when gasoline is unavailable.

In hybrids wherein the ICE intermittently assists a basic electric

drive, there are two alternatives distinguished by important functional

and technical differences: the range-extension and the high-performance

hybrid.

In a range-extension hybrid, the ICE is used only to extend the

range of the vehicle beyond that provided by the battery and electric

drive alone. The electric drive gives adequate acceleration for all

types of driving, and adequate range for most full-day travel requirements. It alone would suffice for almost all urban driving, with all

the attendent advantages of electric propulsion for reducing petroleum

use and vehicular emissions of air pollutants. The ICE would be relatively small, with one-third to one-half the power output of the electric motor. It would be used mostly in highway driving, operating over

a relatively narrow speed range near its maximum power. These are

favorable conditions for high efficiency and low emissions. During

highway cruising the ICE would provide enough extra power beyond that

needed to propel the vehicle to recharge slowly the propulsion battery.

This would ensure availability of electric power for occasional bursts

of acceleration and higher speed or for climbing hills.

In a high performance hybrid, the ICE would be used not only to

extend range beyond that of the basic electric drive, but to provide

power for higher acceleration whenever the driver demanded it. Reliance

on the ICE for acceleration leads to designs in which ICE output may be

up to twice that of the electric motor. It also requires that the ICE

operate in a stop-start mode in urban driving, contributing high power

almost instantly when the driver depresses the accelerator pedal, and

stopping when the pedal is released in order to conserve fuel. ,

Because the high-performance hybrid uses a larger ICE with larger

load fluctuations for more driving conditions, it generally requires

70
more gasoline than the range-extension hybrid. It also poses more difficult control and drivability problems because the ICE must be abruptly

started and stopped and its high power output smoothly combined with

that provided by the electric drive. In the range-extension hybrid, the

ICE is smaller, less frequently operated, and more easily managed as a

result. Its low power output could be entirely diverted, if necessary,

by the electric drive to battery recharging, so that throttling of the

ICE is not necessary during deceleration and stops. Starting could be

manually controlled because it need not be sudden and would probably not

be required at all on most travel days.

Aside from control and drivability problems, the stop-start ICE

operation of the high-performance hybrid raises significant problems of

engine wear and life. Two important causes of engine wear are erosion

and corrosion. Erosion results from metal-to-metal contact due to inadequate lubrication. Corrosion results from chemical attack of metal

surfaces by moisture and corrosive products from the combustion process. -

Both mechanisms are accelerated by stop-start operation, which leads to

more frequent cold starts and lower average operating temperatures.

During startup, especially cold startup, insufficient lubrication may be

available at the pistons and piston rings, a condition exacerbated by

rich fuel mixtures resulting from choking of the engine to improve cold

drivability. Engines operated intermittently, with consequent low cylinder wall temperatures, tend to build up accumulations of corrosive

combustion products which attack metal surfaces. Eventually, combustion

products may contaminate engine oil to the point at which cold-engine

sludges begin to coagulate, separate, and accumulate where oil flow is

slow or restricted, further interfering with engine operation.

In short, the technical challenges posed by the high-performance

hybrid exceed those of the range-extension hybrid.

Examples of Hybrid Desiqn

Only a few hybrids have been built recently, in comparison with

the much larger number of all-electric vehicles constructed. Whereas

the Department of Energy has supported a number of electric vehicles for

limited production and has completed the sophisticated ETV-1, it has not

supported a range-extension hybrid and has only begun on a sophisticated

high-performance hybrid. A recent development from industry, however,

illustrates the status of the less-demanding approach, and the preliminary designs for the DOE Hybrid Test Vehicle HTV-1 reveal what may be

expected from a sophisticated high-performance hybrid by the end of

1982.

The Briggs and Stratton Corporation completed a hybrid electric

car in late 1979. Developed entirely on company funds, the car illustrates the potential role of the small engines manufactured by Briggs ,

and Stratton in hybrid-electric automobiles. It is shown in Fig. 4.2.

71
Figure 4.2 The Briggs and Stratton Hybrid-Electric Car

The Briggs and Stratton hybrid is based on a 6-wheel electric vehicle chassis from Marathon Electric Vehicle Company of Quebec (Fig.

4.3). The two extra wheels support the batteries in a ‘captive trailer”

behind the conventional rear driving wheels. The heart of the drive

train is the front mounted electric motor, which drives the rear axle

through a manual clutch, 4-speed manual transmission, and differential.

The free front end of the electric motor shaft can be driven by a twocylinder gasoline engine through a one-way clutch.

The Briggs and Stratton hybrid may be operated all-electrically or

with the combined power of both the motor and the ICE, at the discretion

of the driver. It carries two adults, two children, and packages. Its

curb weight is 3,200 pounds including a propulsion battery assembled

from 12 production golf-car batteries weighing about 800 pounds which

are carried in the 200-pound captive trailer. The maximum electric

motor output, 20 horsepower, is reported to accelerate the car from O to

30 mph in 10.5 seconds and suffice for driving at speeds up to 40 mph in

urban areas. All-electric range is 30 to 60 miles. The 18-horsepower

72
18 HP

CONTROL RELAYS

INTERNAL-COMBUSTION

ENGINE

BATTERY PACK

—

/ ACCESSOR

/

DIFFERENTIAL /

AND DRIVE AXLE 4-SPEED \

TRANSMISSION FUEL TANK

AUTOMATIC

MANUAL ONE-WAY CLUTCH

CLUTCH

20-HP

ELECTRIC DRIVE MOTOR

Y BATTERY

Figure 4.3 Schematic of the Briggs and Stratton Hybrid Electric Car

ICE alone gives the car unlimited cruising range at speeds up to a maximum of 45 mph. Motor and engine together allow 55-mph speed. Fuel economy on the ICE is 25-40 mpg. The controller is a simple contactor device which does not provide regeneration during braking or battery recharging frOm the ICE.

The Briggs and Stratton hybrid is essentially a range-extension

hybrid with the low acceleration of present all-electric vehicles. With

improved batteries capable of higher power output and a larger electric

motor, use of the ICE could be unnecessary to reach freeway speeds. It

could then be operated purely for range extension. A lower-drag body

with a slightly larger engine would allow cruising at 55 mph on the ICE

alone.

Other recent hybrids have been even more dependent on the ICE for

assisting the electric drive in all but the least demanding urban conditions. One example is the Volkswagen Hybrid Taxi, derived from the

familiar VW van by addition of an electric motor and batteries to the 8

standard rear engine-transaxle drive train. Another is the Daihatsu 

1.5-ton truck developed several years ago in Japan. The major objectives of this design are quiet, emission-free operation at low speeds in

crowded urban areas. The drive train configuration, shown in Fig. 4.4,

is identical to that of the Briggs and Stratton hybrid except that a

controller using both armature and field choppers is employed. The

maximum speed of the truck on the 85-horsepower diesel ICE9

is about 50

mph, while on the 40-horsepower motor it is about 35 mph.

73
The Hybrid Test Vehicle HTV-1, a high-performance design under

development for the Department of Energy by a team headed by General

Electric, is illustrated in Fig. 4.5. The HTV-1 is a five-passenger

SION

Figure 4.4 Power Train of Daihatsu 1.5-ton Hybrid Truck

GASOLINE ENGINE

ELECTRIC MOTOR

Figure 4.5 Schematic of DOE’s Hybrid Test Vehicle HTV-1

intermediate-size car comparable in both performance and accommodations

to conventional ICE cars. The entire hybrid drive train and propulsion

battery are placed in the front of the car. The car is expected to

weigh about 3,950 pounds, some 800 pounds more than a comparable conventional car. Its ten lead-acid batteries will weigh 770 pounds; they

will be improved stat

4

-of-the-art batteries expected from the DOE NearTerm Battery Program.

74
field

The electric motor of the HTV-1 is a DC machine controlled by a

chopper and battery switching, with 44 horsepower peak output. It

will power the ‘primary-electric” mode of urban driving at speeds below

31 mph. A 4-cylinder, 60-horsepower fuel-injected ICE will operate on

demand for bursts of high acceleration during the primary-electric mode,

and will provide the primary capability for higher-speed driving. The

front wheels of the HTV-1 preliminary designs are driven by both engine

and motor through a 4-speed, automatically-shifted gear box. Maximum

acceleration using both engine and motor was estimated for the preliminary HTV-1 design at 0-31 mph in 5 seconds and O-56 mph in 12.6 seconds,

implying capability for accelerate g from O to 40 mph in 7 to 8 seconds.

Top speed was estimated at 93 mph. 4

Petroleum use for the preliminary HTV-1 design was projected to be

63 percent of that for the comparable conventional vehicle.

4

More recently, General Electric has indicated that performance of the final design may be slightly reduced, an automatic 3-speed transmission substituted for the 4-speed gear box, and petroleum use de10 eased to 45-60

percent of that for the comparable conventional car.

Design Tradeoffs

In the range-extension hybrid, increasing battery size increases

range on electricity alone and thus increases the portion of total

travel on electricity rather than gasoline. AS in the electric vehicle,

however, increasing battery size also increases vehicle weight, sticker

price, energy use per mile, and life-cycle cost.

For the range-extension hybrid, then, the crucial design tradeoff

is between expense and independence of the gasoline pump. The critical

design parameter is range on electricity alone, as in the pure electric

vehicle. The importance of long electric range is much less for the hybrid, however, because it can ordinarily continue beyond its electric

range using its ICE. Short electric ranges do not limit mobility, as in

the case of the electric car. Furthermore, the electric range of the

hybrid can be fully utilized on all long trips, including trips too long

to be undertaken by the electric car. For such trips, the owner of the

electric car would have to substitute an ICE car for the entire distance.

Though available travel data are less than definitive, it appears

that a range-extension hybrid with a useful electric range of 100 miles

would be able to accomplish electrically about 85 percent of the distance travelled annually by the average US car. For shorter electric

ranges, decreases in electrification of travel would at first be slow:

with 60-mile useful range, the hybrid could still electrify about 80

percent of average annual car travel. At still shorter ranges, however,

electrification would drop rapidly (see Fig. 4.6). Useful range is the

distance which would be driven on electricity before starting the ICE of

the hybrid. It would probably be limited to 80 percent of the maximum

75
- 1

z

I.11

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0 50

USEFUL ELECTRIC RANGE, km

100 150

I I I

I I I I I

20 40 60 80 100

USEFUL ELECTRIC RANGE, mi

Figure 4.6 Annual Travel on Electricity Versus Useful Electric

Range of Hybrid Cars

electric range, in order to leave sufficient battery capability available for assisting the ICE with electric power for bursts of acceleration.

To project the costs which must be weighed against the benefits of

increasing electrification, key characteristics for future range-extension hybrids were projected using the same methods and assumptions employed to project characteristics for pure electric vehicles (see Appendix). The projections were made for near-term hybrids with lead-acid

and nickel-zinc batteries. Depending on battery size, the projected

four-passenger cars with near-term batteries could offer:

o 45-105 miles useful urban range on electricity alone.

o Sticker prices of $7,000 to $10,000.

0 Annual fuel usage from 70 gallons per year for the shortrange cars to 50 gallons per year for the long range cars

(for annual travel of 10,000 miles).

76
The initial and life-cycle costs of the comparable ICE vehicle are projected to be $4,470 and 21.4 cents per mile. Maximum battery weights

assumed were 32 percent of vehicle test weight for lead-acid batteries,

and 28 percent for nickel-zinc batteries. The minimum battery weight

was 23 percent of test weight for lead-acid battery vehicles and about

19 percent for nickel-zinc vehicles. At any given range, the cars with

nickel-zinc batteries are considerably lighter, about equal in sticker

price, and roughly 28 percent more expensive on a life-cycle basis than

the cars with lead-acid batteries due to the shorter life projected for

the nickel-zinc battery.

Projections were also made for four-passenger range-extension

hybrids using advanced lithium-metal sulfide batteries. Depending on

battery size, the projected cars would offer:

o 50 to 100 miles urban range on electricity alone.

o $6,100-7,000 sticker price.

o 19-21 cents per mile life-cycle cost.

o 45 gallons per year gasoline use at the shortest range to 35

gallons per year at the longest range (for annual travel of

10,000 miles) .

The comparable conventional car would offer a sticker price of $5, 140, a

life-cycle cost of 21.7 cents per mile, and an annual petroleum use of

280 gallons, approximately.

Figure 4.7 further illustrates the tradeoffs between cost and

petroleum use. The projections do not, however, include hybrids with

the nickel-iron or zinc-chlorine batteries employed in projections for

electric cars. This is because the versions of these batteries now

under development have insufficient power output per pound to permit

hybrid designs with relatively small batteries and short ranges. For

those battery types to be used in range-extension hybrids, versions designed for higher power in relation to energy are desirable. Present

design goals are better suited to pure electric vehicles, for which a

lower relative level of power output is satisfactory.

A more complicated set of design tradeoffs arises for the highperformance hybrid because the designer has an additional degree of

freedom: shifting acceleration power requirements from the electric

motor to the internal combustion engine. In the high-performance hybrid, the ICE can be started at any time to meet acceleration requirements, even during the primary-electric operating mode. With the ICE'S

power instantly available, the designer is free to reduce the electric

motor size and battery size at will. This makes the high-performance

hybrid less expensive, but more dependent on petroleum fuel, i.e., more

like an ICE car and less like an electric car.

77
USEFUL URBAN ELECTRIC RANGE, km

1100 0

5000

I

COMPARABLE NEAR-TERM

ICE CARS ADVANCED

I I 1 I 1 J

o 20 40 60 80 100 120

USEFUL URBAN ELECTRIC RANGE, miles

USEFUL URBAN ELECTRIC RANGE, km

4000

t

1600}

1

1200

ADVANCED NEARLi.MS

COMPARABLE

ICE CARS

I I I 1 I I 1 I t I 1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

USEFUL URBAN ELECTRIC RANGE, miles

USEFUL URBAN ELECTRIC RANGE, km

o 50 100 150
For the near term, ICES large enough to provide from half to twothirds of maximum available acceleration power are favored for high- 4

performance hybrids. The design tradeoffs behind such choices were

developed by four independent contractor teams during the study and

preliminary design phase of the DOE near-term hybrid vehicle program.

The contractors: reports detailing this work, however, are not yet

generally available.

4.3 REPRESENTATIVE FUTURE HYBRID VEHICLES

Hybrid designs offering low electric range and electric acceleration capability are generally cheapest to buy and to operate over their

life, at least given today’s gasoline and electricity prices. By the

time hybrids are marketed in high volume, however, it is likely that a

spectrum of designs will be offered, including many with more than minimum electric capability. Especially if petroleum shortages and price

increases recur, many buyers may prefer range-extension hybrids with

long electric range and low dependence on petroleum fuels. Many others,

however, may still prefer hybrids with lower prices and less electric

capability or with performance as high as that of large conventional

cars, despite greater petroleum use and less operational capability when

it is unavailable. This section addresses both possibilities.

Range-Extension Hybrids

A maximum range of 75 miles on battery power alone is a reasonable

choice for representative future range-extension hybrids. This leads to

a useful electric range of 60 miles before the ICE would ordinarily be

started, at 80 percent depth of battery discharge. This would be enough

for electrification of about 80 percent of the annual travel by the

average US automobile. This is the same level of electrification that

the 100-mile all-electric car would achieve, as discussed further in

Chapter 6.

Near-term four-passenger range-extension hybrids with 60-mile useful ranges and lead-acid or nickel-zinc batteries would offer:

o Sticker prices of about $8,000 or $7,800, slightly less than

the prices of about $8,500 or $8,100 projected for electric

cars with the same types of batteries but 69 percent or 64

percent greater than the $4,740 price of the comparable ICE

car.

o Life-cycle costs of 23.5 or 26.0 cents per mile, less than

the figures of 23.9 or 26.6 cents per mile estimated for

all-electric versions but 5 percent or 20 percent greater

than the 21.4 cents per mile for the comparable ICE car.

o Annual fuel use in average travel of about 66 or 60 gallons

per year, only 22 percent or 20 percent of the 300 gallons

per year projected for the comparable ICE car.

79
A four-passenger hybrid with advanced lithium-metal sulfide battery and 60 mile useful electric range might offer a price just 20 percent above that of the comparable ICE car, a life cost 11 percent lower,

and a fuel use of only 45 gallons per year, just 16 percent of the 280

gallons per year projected for the comparable ICE car (see Table 4.1).

The range-extension hybrids weigh less and cost less than their

electric counterparts because they offer less electric range and therefore require a smaller battery. The reductions in battery weight and

cost exceed the weight and cost added by their ICE systems. In addition, the weight and cost of the necessary electric propulsion system

and the remainder of the car are slightly reduced. For the near-term

four-passenger car with nickel-zinc battery, for example, 200 pounds of

expensive battery is replaced by 150 pounds of less expensive ICE system

(Table 4.2).

Like pure electric vehicles, the range-extension hybrids are more

expensive to buy than comparable ICE cars because of the weight and cost

of their batteries and electrical equipment. On a life-cycle basis,

they are more expensive due to battery depreciation and the extra costs

of capital, which exceed the savings they bring on repairs and maintenance, and on energy. Further details are given in Table 4.3.

Fuel costs projected for the comparable ICE cars are about 4 cents

per mile. Thus doubling the assumed gasoline price (to $2.50 per gallon) would add 4 cents per mile to the life cycle costs of the ICE cars.

If gasoline prices rose from $1.25 to about $2.00 per gallon (in 1980

dollars) and other costs remained unchanged, the near-term range-extension hybrid with lead-acid battery would be no more expensive (in terms

of life cycle cost) than the comparable ICE car. For the hybrid with

nickel-zinc battery, the corresponding gasoline price is $2.70 per gallon. Because of the very high performance and long life projected for

the lithium-metal sulfide battery, plus a low off-peak price for electricity, the advanced range-extension hybrid is already cheaper on a

life-cycle basis than the comparable ICE car, even at 1980 gasoline

prices.

If petroleum alone were used to generate recharge energy, the

energy requirements of the lead-acid and nickel-zinc hybrids would be

equivalent to those of conventional cars getting 31 to 33 mph (miles per

gallon) in urban driving. The car with advanced lithium-metal sulfide

batteries would increase this equivalent fuel economy to about 42 mpg.

This is competitive with the projected conventional cars offering the

same passenger space and acceleration, built with the same materials,

and using conventional ICE drive trains, which might get 33 to 36 mpg in

urban driving. If coal alone were used to generate electricity and produce synthetic gasoline, however, the near-term hybrid cars would offer

the equivalent of 53 and 58 mpg, and the advanced battery car 73 mpg.

This results from the inefficiencies of using coal rather than petroleum

to produce gasoline. Table 4.4 summarizes these projections.

80
TABLE 4.1

REPRESENTATIVE FUTURE RANGE-EXTENSION HYBRID CARS

Near-Term Advanced

Battery Specific

Energy, Wh/lb

Useful Electric

Range, mi

Curb Weight, lbs

Sticker Price,

mid-1980 dollars

Life-Cycle Cost,

cents per mi

Electricity Use,

kWh/mi

Fuel Economy, mpg

Annual Fuel Use,

gal/yr

Pb-Acid

22.7

60

3750

8020

23.5

0.38

31

66

Ni-Zn

31.8

60

2960

7770

26.0

0.37

34

60

Assumptions: Electricity Price

Gasoline Price

Hybrid Vehicle Life

ICE Vehicle Life

Annual Travel

ICE Use in Hybrids

Urban Driving Cycle

Acceleration Capability

Passenger Capacity

(ICE) Li-MS

68. 0

60

2010 1910

4740 6200

21. 4 19. 3

33

304

0.27

45

45

$0.03 per kwh

(IcE)

1810

5140

21. 8

36

282

$1.25 per gallon

12 years

10 years

10,000 mi

20 percent

SAE J227a, Schedule D,

for hybrid cars

Federal Urban Driving Cycle

for ICE cars

0-40 mph in 10 seconds

Four persons plus luggage

Source: General Research Corporation. Performance and cost estimates

for all vehicles were made with the ELVEC and EVWAC computer

models. Costs are in mid-1980 dollars and are based on mass

production of all vehicles (300,000 units or more per year).

81
TABLE 4.2

WEIGHT AND COST BREAKDOWNS FOR REPRESENTATIVE

FUTURE ELECTRIC AND RANGE-EXTENSION HYBRID CARS

Battery

ICE Propulsion

Electric Propulsion

Basic Vehicle

Total

Electric Hybrid

Weight, cost,

lbs $

890 2410

340 1020

1800 4700

Weight, cost,

lbs $

700 1880

150 250

330 1000

1780 4640

Change

Weight, cost,

lbs $

-190 -530

150 250

-lo -20

-20 -60

3030 8130 2960 7770 -70 -360

Assumptions: Near-Term Technology

Nickel-Zinc Battery

Nominal Maximum Electric Range: 100 miles - electric car

75 miles - hybrid car

Electric Propulsion Rating (Short-Term):

47 hp - electric car

46 hp - hybrid car

ICE Propulsion Rating (continuous) - 18 hp

ICE Fuel Tank Size: 7.3 gal

Source: General Research Corporation

82
TABLE 4.3

INITIAL AND LIFE-CYCLE COSTS OF REPRESENTATIVE

FOUR-PASSENGER RANGE-EXTENSION HYBRID CARS

Near-Term

Pb-Acid Ni-Zn

Initial Cost, dollars 8020 7770

Vehicle 6410

Battery 1410

Life-Cycle Cost,

cents per mi 23.7

Vehicle 5.0

Battery 2.3

Repairs & Maintenance 2.0

Replacement Tires

Insurance

Garaging, Parking,

Tolls, etc.

Title, License, Registration, etc.

Electricity (per

electric mile )

Fuel and Oil

(per ICE mile)

Cost of Capita l

0 . 6

2.2

3.1

0.7

2.2

4.3

5.2

All costs are in mid-1980 dollars.

Assumptions: Electricity Price

Gasoline Price

Hybrid Vehicle Life

ICE Vehicle Life

Annual Travel

Travel Using ICE

26. 0

4 . 4

5 . 7

2 . 0

0 . 5

2 . 2

3 . 1

0 . 6

1 . 9

3 . 9

5 . 2

— —(IcE).

4740

4740

21.4

4.3

3.9

0.4

2.2

3.1

0.5

4.0

3.0

Advanced

Li-MS (ICE)

6200 5140

5300 5140

900

19.4

4.0

1.4

2.0

0.4

2.2

3.1

0.5

1.5

3.0

4.0

$0.03 per kWh

$1.25 per gallon

12 years

10 years

10,000 miles

20 percen t

21.8

4 . 7

3.9

0.4

2.2

3.1

0 . 5

3.7

3.3

Car and Battery Salvage Value 10 percent

Cost of Capita l 10 percent per year

Car and battery purchases are 100 percent financed

over their useful lives.

Repair and Maintenance cost equal to that of an electri c

vehicle for all-electric travel, and equal to that o f

an ICE vehicle for travel using ICE.

Electricity cost includes a road use tax, equal to tha t

paid by typical gasoline vehicles of equal weight vi a

state and federal gasoline taxes.

Source: General Research Corporation . Cost categories and many entries,

such as tires, insurance, garaging, etc., are based on periodi c

cost analyses by the Department of Transportation (see Ref. 11) .

All costs shown were computed by tile Electric Vehicle Weight and

Cost Model (EVWAC), Ref. 12.

83
TABLE 4.4

EQUIVALENT FUEL ECONOMIES OF

HYBRID CARS RECHARGED FROM

FOUR-PASSENGER RANGE-EXTENSION

PETROLEUM OR COAL RESOURCES

Equivalent Miles per Gallon*

Oil Coal

Near-Term Cars

Lead-Acid

Nickel-Zinc

(Comparable ICE Car)†

Advanced Cars

Lithium-Metal Sulfide

(Comparable ICE Car)†

31 53

33 58

(33.0) (33.0)

42

(35.6)

73

(35.6)

Assumed Conversion Efficiencies:

Crude oil to gasoline - 89% Coal to gasoline - 53%

Crude oil to electricity- 28% Coal to electricity - 30%

Efficiencies include losses and energy inputs in extraction of the energy

resource from the ground, transportation and conversion to its final form

for vehicular use, and delivery to the vehicle. Source: Ref. 13

*

Equivalent miles per gallon is the urban fuel economy of an ICE car

requiring the same use of petroleum (for gasoline) or coal (for synthetic gasoline) as would be needed to generate recharge electricity

for the hybrid car. † The comparable ICE cars offer the same passenger compartments and

acceleration capability as their hybrid counterparts, are built with

the same materials, and use conventional ICE drive trains. Their

fuel economies are projected for urban driving.

84
The range of the range-extension hybrid during all-electric operation would be as sensitive to head winds, grades, and other driving conditions as the ranges of all-electric cars. The importance of this sensitivity to motorists would be much less, however, because the availability of the ICE would insure against premature battery depletion before the end of a planned trip. An electric air conditioner or an electric heat pump for both cooling and heating would be attractive for the

range-extension hybrid for this same reason: trip completion would not

be threatened by premature battery depletion. A gasoline heater would

also be facilitated by the availability of the gasoline on board for the

ICE.

Comparisons between larger hybrid cars and comparable conventional

cars, or between hybrid and conventional light trucks, would be like

those drawn here for four-passenger cars. That is, if the sticker price

of the four-passenger hybrid were 70 percent above that of the fourpassenger ICE car, the sticker prices of other hybrid vehicles would

also be about 70 percent above the prices of the comparable ICE vehicles.

Because of its low reliance on its ICE, the range-extension hybrid

poses few technical problems beyond those of the electric vehicle on

which it is based. The availability of the ICE enhances the dependability of the vehicle, since it is disconnected from the basic electric

drive in most driving but can be engaged to provide propulsive power not

only after battery discharge, but in the event of typical electrical

system failures. Excessive ICE operation in urban areas, with attendant

petroleum use and pollutant emissions, is unlikely: the driver might

thus improve acceleration capability or avoid electrical recharge from

utility power, but the ICE is too small to add greatly to acceleration,

and operation on gasoline is considerably more expensive than on electricity. Furthermore, plugging in the car for overnight recharge at

home will generally be more convenient than making stops at the filling

station for gasoline.

High Performance Hybrids

Working independently, four design teams completed thorough tradeoff studies and preliminary designs for high-performance hybrids for the

US Department of Energy in late 1979. The four teams were headed by

Fiat (the Italian auto maker), General Electric, and two small firms:

Minicars and South Coast Technology, both of Santa Barbara. The tradeoff studies considered typical driving needs against the performance

capabilities, costs, and risks of a wide variety of future technological

alternatives to choose the components and operating strategies for the

preliminary designs. The General Electric study and design led to selection of the GE team for final design and construction of DOE’s Hybrid

Test Vehicle HTV-1, which is to be completed about the end of 1982 (see

Fig. 3.5). The results of the preliminary design work have been reported by the Cal Tech Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), manager of the work

for the Department of Energy.

85
The performance projected for the four preliminary designs is much

like that of recent intermediate and full-size US sedans, and much higher than that of electric vehicles:

o Acceleration from O to 31 miles per hour in 4.3-5.0 seconds,

compared with about 9 seconds for the DOE Electric Test

Vehicle ETV-1 and 6-7 seconds for the range-extension hybrids and future electric cars projected elsewhere in this

report.

o Acceleration from O to 56 miles per hour in 12.6-13.9

seconds, compared with 25-30 seconds for the ETV-1 and about

20 seconds for the range-extension hybrids and future

electric cars.

The preliminary designs of the high-performance hybrids also provided

cruising speeds from 55 to 80 miles per hour, maximum speeds from 80 to

110 miles per hour, and seating for either 5 or 6 passengers.

The costs of the preliminary high-performance hybrid designs exceed those of the comparable ICE cars projected by the individual study

teams, but they are generally below those of range-extension hybrids and

pure electric cars in this report:

o Retail prices are projected to be 20 to 60 percent above

those of comparable ICE cars, whereas sticker prices of the

range-extension hybrids were estimated to be 65 to 70 percent higher (with near-term batteries).

o Life-cycle costs were estimated to range from slightly less

to about 25 percent above life-cycle costs for the comparable ICE cars.

Estimated fuel uses for the preliminary high-performance hybrid

designs are substantially higher than those for the range-extension hybrids: 30 to 60 percent of the fuel usages projected for the comparable

ICE cars, versus 20 percent for the range-extension hybrid (see Table

4.5).

Though all the preliminary designs of the high-performance hybrids

employ the parallel configuration, they differ considerably in battery

and drive train choices. The Fiat preliminary design places much more

reliance on electric power than the others: its electric motor almost

equals its ICE in power output, whereas the others use ICES providing up

to twice the power of the electric motor. The high reliance of the Fiat

design on electricity is based on selection of the high-performance

nickel-zinc battery. Two of the other designs employed future lead-acid

batteries instead because of the higher risks foreseen in obtaining

86
TABLE 4.5

●

PROJECTED PERFORMANCE, COST, AND FUEL USE OF

PRELIMINARY DESIGNS FOR HIGH-PERFORMANCE HYBRID CARS

PERFORMANCE

Acceleration time, sec

0-31 mph

O-56 mph

Speed, mph

Cruise

Maximum

Passenger Capacity

COST (relative to ICE car*)

Retail price, %

Life cycle cost, % t

FUEL USE (relative to

ICE car ), %

Fiat

5.0

13.8

75

81

6

121

102

31

GE

5.0

12.6

81

93

5

135

99

63

Minicars

5.0

13.0

55

112

5

140

123

44

SCT

4 .3

12.9

81

103

6

161

127

52

Source: JPL (Ref. 4)

*

The comparable 1985 ICE car for each design, as projected independently

by each individual contractor.

t

Based on prices (in 1980 dollars) of $1.38 per gallon of gasoline and

5.4 cents per kilowatt-hour of electricity.

87
nickel-zinc batteries with satisfactory life and overall

sign used nickel-iron batteries, considered intermediate

cost ● One dein both performance and risk. Both designs not based on lead-acid batteries provided

alternatives for backup use of lead-acid batteries.

Only the Fiat design, with its high electric capability, was capable of following the Federal Urban Driving Cycle without use of its ICE.

This was made possible not only by the nickel-zinc battery and large

electric motor, but also by assumptions of very advanced tires and low

aerodynamic drag. Tire rolling resistance was assumed to be 0.45 percent, under half that assumed for other designs. The aerodynamic drag

coefficient was projected to be 0.3, about 25 percent less than coefficients estimated for the other designs. The high reliance of the Fiat

design on electricity led to the lowest projected annual usage of petroleum fuel, 31 percent of that for the reference ICE vehicle, whereas the

other preliminary designs require up to 63 percent of the petroleum used

by the reference vehicle.

Two of the designs use electric controllers which do not include

expensive armature choppers. The GE design combines a field chopper

with battery switching and a four-speed gear box with automatic shift,

an arrangement also appropriate for near-term range-extension hybrids.

The other three designs also include multispeed transmissions.

Table 4.6 offers additional details of battery and drive train

characteristics for the preliminary high-performance hybrid designs.

Comparison of the four preliminary designs shows clearly how projections

of electric and hybrid vehicle characteristics can vary, even with clearcut basic assumptions and groundrules, and even for periods as short as

five years. The four contractors who independently produced these preliminary designs all worked towards--and met--the same minimum performance and payload requirements. All were required to utilize components

and fabrication techniques within the state of the art by 1980 or earlier

and amenable to mass production by the mid-1980’s. They nevertheless

differed to the extent of choosing nickel-zinc rather than lead-acid batteries, and projecting tires with rolling resistances differing by a

factor of two. All the contractors were required to design vehicles with

purchase prices competitive with those of reference ICE cars, and life

costs equal to those of the reference ICE cars. None eventually projected

a purchase price less than 20 percent above the projected price of the

reference ICE car, but two projected life-cycle costs which were approximately equal to those of the reference ICE cars.

The high-performance hybrid approach has special advantages for

application in light trucks and vans. These are basically load-carrying

vehicles, and though they often serve as passenger cars with very little

88
TABLE 4.6

PROJECTED WEIGHT AND DRIVE TRAIN CHARACTERISTICS

OF PRELIMINARY DESIGNS FOR HIGH-PERFORMANCE HYBRID CARS

Curb Weight, lbs

Maximum Power Ratings

ICE, hp

Electric Motor, hp

Fiat GE Minicars SCT

3,580 3,940 3,850 4,110

50 60 65 71

47 44 32 40

Controller

Battery Switching

Field Chopper x x

Armature Chopper x x

Transmission Type C V T 4-speed 3-speed 4-speed

gear box auto auto

x

x

Battery Type Nickel- Lead- Lead- NickelZinc Acid Acid Iron

Battery Fraction, percent4

18 18 18 13

Source: JPL (Ref. 4)

1 Continuously variable transmission.

2

With lock-up torque converter.

3

Automatically shifted. ,

4

Battery weight as a percent of vehicle test weight (with 300-lb payload).

89
load, they are called upon to move large and heavy loads with14 surprising

frequency even in personal rather than commercial service. Electrification of heavily-loaded vehicles is unattractive because battery weight

(and expense) must be increased in proportion to load weight in order to

maintain range and performance. The ICE in the high-performance hybrid

could much more effectively supply the extra power for adequate acceleration and range during heavily-loaded operation of light trucks and

vans, yet leave unloaded and undemanding travel to the electric drive

and to energy from electric utilities.

90
10

20

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

90

10.

11.

12.

REFERENCES FOR SECTION 4

V. Wouk, “An Experimental ICE/Battery-Electric Hybrid with Low

Emissions and Low Fuel Consumption Capability,n Paper 760123,

Society of Automotive Engineers, Warrendale, PA, February 1976.

The Automobile and Air Pollution: A Program for Progress, l@port

of the Panel on Electrically ~wered Vehicles for the US Department of Congress/ US Government Printing Office, Washington~

October 1967.

L. E. Unnewehr et al., “Hybrid Vehicle for Fuel Economy,” Paper

760121, Society of Automotive Engineers, Warrendale, PA, February

1976.

J.J. Sandberg, “Tradeoff Results and Preliminary Design of NearTerm Hybrid Vehicles,” Paper 800064, Society of Automotive

Engineers, Warrendale, PA, 1980.

E. Behrinetal., Energy Storage Systems for Automotive propulsion, UCRL-52303, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, December 1977.

Third Annual Report to Congress for FY 1979, Electric and Hybrid

Vehicle Program, DOE/CS-0130, US Department of Energy, Washington~

D.C., January 1980.

Press Kit: Briggs and Stratton Corporation Gasoline/Electric

Hybrid, Second Edition, available from Deke Houlgate Enterprises,

1711 Via El Prado, Suite 104, Redondo Beach, Calif. 90277.

R. Miersch, “The Gasoline/Electric Hybrid System in the VW City

Taxi,W

Paper 782403 (E), Electric Vehicle Council, Washington,

1978.

S. Honda et al., “Daihatsu Engine-Electric Hybrid 1.5 Ton muck,”

Paper 782404, Electric Vehicle Council, Washington, D.C., October

1978.

Untitled press release for April 25~ 1980, from the General Electric Research and Development Center, Schenectady, New York.

Cost of Owning and Operating an Automobile, published periodically

by the Federal Highway Administration, US Department of !IYansportation, Washington, D.C.

W. Hamilton, Electric Automobiles, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New

York, 19800

91
13. E. Hughes et al. , Iong-Term Energy Alternatives for Automotive

Propulsion: Synthetic Fuels Versus Battery-Electric Systems,

Report No. 5, Center for Resource and Environmental System

Studies, SRI International, Menlo Park, Calif., August 1976.

14. R. H. Shackson, “Automobile Mobility: Trends in Use and Role,”

presented at the 57th Annual Meeting, Transportation Research

Board, Washington, January 1978.

92
5 INFRASTRUCTURE

5.1 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

The infrastructure required for widespread use

hybrid vehicles (EHVs) consists of four major parts:

of electric and

o

0

0

0

0 The electric utility industry, which must generate and

distribute electric power for recharge.

Facilities for convenient recharging, which may include some

combination of special electric outlets at residential,

commercial, and industrial parking places, service stations

providing quick battery recharges or battery exchanges, and

even electrified highways.

Extractive industries and mineral resources, which must

supply materials needed for batteries.

o Production, sales, and support industries, which must

manufacture, merchandise, and service EHVs.

In each of these four areas, existing capabilities are impressive

in relation to requirements for introducing EHVs. For example:

o In 1979 the electric utility industry generated 2.2 trillion

kilowatt hours of electric energy, three times as much as

necessary to electrify all 146 million cars and light trucks

on US roads in 1980. In 1979 the industry operated at an

average power output which was only 64 percent of its

maximum output during the year, and electrifying 20 percent

of all US cars and light trucks would have raised average

power output to only 68 percent of maximum output during the

year.

Most residential garages and carports have standard 120-volt

electric outlets capable of delivering enough energy during

the eight-hour period from 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. to drive a

four-passenger electric car 30 to 40 miles. Many garages

have 220-volt outlets for clothes dryers capable of providing four times as much energy in 8 hours. Average daily

auto use in the United States, in contrast, is only about 28

miles.

Extractive industries are already supplying materials demands in the United States which are so great that increases

due to mass production of EHVs (300,000 units per year)

would only be 5 to 10 percent for near-term battery materials such as lead and nickel. Increases would be much

93
less for more widely used materials such as zinc and

chlorine.

o The auto industry already produces millions of vehicles

annually. They are sold and serviced through some 22,000

established dealers who already utilize factory-trained

mechanics and factory-supplied parts departments.

If a major auto maker undertakes mass production of EHVs, there is

little reason to assume that potential buyers will be deterred by lack

of electricity or usable electric outlets, that materials suppliers will

be unable to deliver sufficient battery materials, or that the auto

maker itself will fail to produce, sell, and service the vehicle satisfactorily. On the other hand, there are significant changes to be made.

Furthermore, widespread use of EHVs could be encouraged by appropriate

changes in the infrastructure, and at the same time, national benefits

from any given level of EHV use could be enhanced.

The key to realizing the potential benefits of electrification of

light-duty vehicular travel is the electric utility system. Although a

fifty percent increase in electricity usage of the average household

would occur due to use of an EHV, the electric utility system will have

sufficient capacity to handle the additional load. It is estimated that

this load would range from 0.53 quadrillion BTU (quads) in 1980 to 0.64

quads in 2010, for 20 percent electrification of light-duty vehicular

travel (Fig. 5.1). This represents an increase above projected electricity demand without EHVs of 6.4 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.

The timing of the recharging load, however, is very important.

Even on days of peak demand, millions of vehicles could be recharged

without requiring new capacity, if most recharging is accomplished late

at night when other demand is low. However, a combination of off-peak

electricity pricing and selective load control will be needed to ensure

that recharging occurs when the electric utility system can best handle

the additional load. Considerable economic forces favor these innovations; they could simultaneously reduce prices for recharge electricity

and improve utility profits. A few utilities already offer incentives

for off-peak recharging, and industry attention has turned to appropriate rates and metering equipment. Still, it is unclear whether most

will have adopted the practice before large-scale introduction of EHVs.

It is clear, however, that the widespread use of EHVs is feasible if

good use is made of the existing and planned electric utility system.

If, on the other hand, much recharging makes use of on-peak or near-peak

electricity, the new generating plants will have to be built to accommodate the additional demand. This could present an obstacle to the market penetration of EHVs because of the existing public resistance to the

development of new power plants, particularly those employing nuclear

fuels. It would also increase costs of producing recharge electricity.

94
0.64 QUADRILLION

0.61 QUADRILLlON

0.59 QUADRILLION BRITISH THERMAL

BRITISH THERMAL UNITS (QUADS)

UNITS (QUADS)

0.53 QUADRILLION

BRITISH THERMAL

UNITS (QUADS)

OIL

37.80/o

COAL

51.6%

NUCLEAR

1.2%

OTHER

9.40/0 —

1980

—

OIL

31 .60/0

COAL

53.40/0

NUCLEAR

9.1 0/0

OTHER

5.90/0

1990

OIL

15.1 0/0

COAL

63.4%

NUCLEAR

17.80/o

OTHER 3.7%

BRITISH THERMAL

UNITS (QUADS)

OIL

7.20/o

COAL

63.7 %

NUCLEAR

25.60/o

OTHER 3.6°A

2000 2010

Source: Recharge Capacity Projection System (RECAPS) General Research

Corporation

Assumptions: The RECAPS model schedules the use of nuclear, coal, and

hydroelectric facilities before oil and gas facilities, and base-load facilities before

intermediate and peaking facilities to minimize operating costs. Recharging is

controlled to maximize the use of off-peak power available during late night and

early morning hours when demand is lowest. The model makes use of capacity and

demand projections developed by the electric utility companies in 1979. Energy required was assumed to be 0.5 kilowatt-hours per mile at the charging outlet. This

value reflects a mix of cars and light-duty trucks to electrify 20 percent of lightduty vehicular travel in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 (Table 6.1). Vehicles were assumed to be distributed uniformly across the United States based on population. They

were also assumed to travel an average of 10,000 miles per year. Electrical distribution system efficiency was assumed to be 90 percent.

Figure 5.1 Electric Energy Required Annually to Electrify 20 Percent

of Light-Duty Vehicular Travel, by Type of Fuel Used

,

95
The electric utility industry is currently

shifting away from the use of petroleum to other

of the major objectives of the use of EHVs is to

in the process of

sources of energy. One

further reduce national

consumption of petroleum and dependence on foreign oil. Except in a few

regions, most energy needed to recharge EHVs would be derived from nonpetroleum fuels, primarily coal and nuclear. For 20-percent electrification of light-duty vehicular travel, more than 50 percent of recharging energy would be derived from these sources in 1980, and by 2010

they would account for nearly 90 percent (Fig. 5.1). During this period, the use of petroleum to generate recharge energy would continue to

decline.

Most cars used in the United States are parked at family residences at night, where it would be easiest and cheapest to provide highpower electric outlets for recharging. The number of EHVs that could be

recharged at residences is limited primarily by the availability of offstreet parking. Statistics indicate that about 60 percent of all cars

in metropolitan areas (40 percent of all cars) are located at singlefamily residences with off-street parking. 1

Another 25 percent are

located at multi-family dwellings with off-street parking.

Recharging away from home could be accomplished by a system of

coin-operated outlets at parking lots, quick-charge service stations,

battery exchange stations, and electrified highways. Although the

ability to recharge away from home would help remove the range limitations of electric vehicles, the associated costs, which must eventually

be borne by the consumer, would be high and will probably limit the

extent of ultimate implementation. The fact that in some instances onpeak or near-peak electricity would have to be used for such recharging

compounds the problem.

The demand for large quantities of steel, iron, rubber, zinc,

copper, and aluminum used in the manufacture of automobiles will be

little affected if EHVs replace conventional cars. This is primarily

because EHVs will require the same types of structural components as

existing vehicles. Although the drivetrain will change considerably,

the materials used to manufacture it will be similar to those used in

conventional cars. The biggest change will be in the primary demand for

those materials used in the manufacture of propulsion batteries. Increases in US demand due to 20-percent electrification of US light-duty

vehicles would fall in the 10-75 percent range by 2010. Corresponding

increases in world demand would fall in the 5-35 percent range. Although identified resources of all battery materials in the United

States, except aluminum, cobalt, lithium, and nickel, would be adequate

to electrify much more than 20 percent of light-duty vehicular travel in

the 1985-2010 time period, insufficient quantities are economically

extractable. However, there are more resources not yet discovered, and

it is probable that increased demand could provide the incentives

necessary for enlarging the production facilities and increasing exploration for new resources.

96
World resources of all materials considered appear to be sufficient to electrify much more than 20 percent of light-duty vehicular

travel in the US, as well as supply the projected demand from other

users. This additional demand would necessitate significant expansion

of capacity, however, and worldwide adoption of EHVs at the same level

as in the United States would multiply resource and production requirements by 3-4 times.

Most manufacturing plants, materials, and operations will be

little changed by the introduction of EHVs. The functions of those

people who distribute, lease, and sell vehicles will also remain virtually unchanged. Those industries that would be affected are the

electrical and electronic component manufacturers who produce motors,

controllers, and chargers, as well as the battery manufacturing industry. Growth in employment, production, distribution, and market share

is expected for each of these industries.

With at-home recharging and the high reliability of electric

drive, fewer garages and service stations will be necessary. Service

personnel will require some training in maintenance of electrical

components, but most service will be for familiar components such as

steering, brakes, suspension, and the like. In addition, electric

motors, controllers, chargers, and battery-related parts are more

reliable than corresponding components of an internal combustion engine

system. This, coupled with the extensive capabilities of the major

manufacturers to produce and maintain new technology vehicles, should

help to minimize problems associated with support.

5.2 THE UTILITY SYSTEM

Recharging EHV propulsion batteries will require the use of the

electric utility system, private distribution systems, and EHV recharge

systems (Fig. 5.2). The purpose of the electric utility system is to

deliver electric power to the consumer. This system consists of power

plants to generate electricity, high-voltage transmission lines that

carry the electricity from the power plants to urban areas, substations

which prepare the electricity for use by consumers, and a distribution

system which delivers the electricity to specific residential, comnercial, and industrial users.

Since most recharging of EHVs is likely to be concentrated in

residential areas, it might be necessary to expand the capacity of the

residential distribution system if extremely large numbers of EHVs are

utilized. Primarily this would entail increasing transformer capacities

to accommodate additional household demand. Although a detailed analysis of electric utility distribution system requirements, potential problems, and costs has not been performed, it is expected that the existing system could accommodate 20 percent electrification of light-duty

vehicular travel through 2010.

97
ELECTRIC

UTILITY

SYSTEM

GENERATION

I

TRANSMISSION

SUB-STATION

I

DISTRIBUTION

PRIVATE

DISTRIBUTION

SYSTEM

HEAD OF

SERVICE

MASTER

METER

WIRING

OUTLET

EHV

RECHARGE

SYSTEM

RECHARGE

- CONTROLLE R

BATTERY

CHARGER

BATTERY

PACK

Figure 5.2 Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Recharging Infrastructure

The purpose of the private distribution system is to receive and

distribute electricity on the consumer’s property. This system connects

to the electric utility system at a transformer located near the consumer’s property. The connection is made with the head of service,

which essentially is a junction box. The remainder of the system

consists of a device which meters electricity usage, wiring which distributes the electricity within the user's residence or business, and--

in the case of EHVs --an electric outlet used to supply the vehicle with

recharge energy.

The purpose of the EHV recharge system is to store electrical

energy in the vehicle's propulsion batteries, This system consists of a

device to control and time the recharging process, a battery charger to

convert alternating current to direct current at the proper voltage, and

a battery pack which stores the energy. The charge controller and

charger may be physically located on or off the EHV itself.

A variety of controller techniques and hardware are currently

available for use in this application. Although a complete technical

discussion of what is available is beyond the scope of this report, it

is important to understand the two major functions of this type of

device. First, it should interrupt service on command from the utility,

so that overloading of the electrical system during occasional hours of

very high demand can be avoided. This selective load control has long

98
been used in various regions within the United States for industrial

users and for residential water heating appliances. Second, it should

provide separate metering for off-peak electricity consumption, which

can then be encouraged with a special off-peak rate. This reduced rate

can profitably be offered by electric utility companies during hours of

low demand because most power is then provided by existing base load

units using inexpensive fuels.

In the most advantageous situation, the electric utility works

with both interruptible loads and off-peak pricing. In this case, the

utility installs in each participating household both an off-peak meter

and a remote controller for electric water heaters, air conditioners, or

other large loads such as EHV battery chargers. Then the utility can

interrupt lower-priority service if peak prices are insufficient to keep

demand within available capacity. This may happen if higher lateafternoon prices alone prove insufficient to occasionally discourage the

operation of air conditioners, for example, on extremely hot summer days

when demand is high.

In order to induce customers to accept remote controllers and the

associated possible inconveniences, utility companies generally offer

reduced rates as an incentive. In addition, since the utility gains the

added benefits of load leveling and possible higher utilization rates,

they often provide the required hardware at no additional cost to the

consumer.

Interruptible, off-peak recharging of EHVs constitutes a new load

which would utilize existing equipment and lower-cost fuels more intensively. Resultant costs per kilowatt-hour would be low so that the

utility could offer bargain rates for recharging and at the same time

increase its profits. Thus both the utility and the consumer could

benefit substantially from interruptible and off-peak recharging.

Accordingly, the utility impacts presented here assume that EHVs are

recharged during late night and early morning hours at reduced off-peak

rates, under control of a utility-operated remote device. There has

been little study of on-peak recharging, but it would clearly increase

costs, increase petroleum use, and reduce sharply the number of EHVs

which could be accommodated without additional generating plants. At

the peak hour, relatively little coal-fired or nuclear capacity is

ordinarily idle, so much more generation of recharge electricity would

require use of petroleum-fueled facilities than very late at night.

The use of EHVs would increase the average household’s electricity

usage roughly 50 percent. Overnight recharging would require 13.2

kilowatt-hours per vehicle for an average driving day. This is nearly

20 percent greater than the daily requirement for a residential water

heater, the biggest energy user among typical household appliances

(Table 5.1). Even with reduced rates for interruptible and off-peak

recharging, an EHV would be a major factor in total household electricity costs, probably adding about 25 percent to the total bill.

99
m

100
The utilities will be able to handle the additional load generated

by EHVs because the pattern of demand typically fluctuates such that

nearly half of a utility's potential capacity is unused much of the

time. men on those days when demand is the greatest, sufficient

capacity is available to electrify as much as 50 percent of light-duty

vehicular travel (given off-peak recharging) without requiring any additional capacity beyond that now planned. With greater improvements in

power sharing between utilities, this percentage could be even larger.

For example, analysis of the projected hourly demand on the peak summer

day of 1985 for Southern California Edison shows that the load during

the late night and early morning is very much less, leaving idle almost

half the capacity required to meet the peak hourly demand of the day

(Fig. 5.3). Even after allowance for maintenance and repair, much of

this idle capacity could reasonably be put to use for recharging EHVs.

In most parts of the United States, the hours of maximum demand

come in the late afternoon on hot summer days. During the winter there

is a secondary late-afternoon maximum resulting from extensive use of

electric heating and lighting on cold, dark winter days. Annual minimum

demand is typically recorded during the spring or fall, and ordinarily

on weekends when commercial and industrial activity is least. During

this time, as is the case during most of the year, there is a large idle

capacity available throughout all hours of the day. As a result, it

would be possible to accommodate recharging of EHVs even during peak

hours on many days.

Total “available annual capacity” is defined as the difference

between the electricity that can be generated using all of the normallyavailable generating units in the United States, adjusted to reflect

maintenance and equipment failure, and the country’s annual total demand

for electricity. Projections of available annual capacity for 1980-2010

are shown in Fig. 5.4. The availability of coal as a major fuel for use

in generating recharge energy is projected to undergo rapid growth during the next 30 years. By the year 2010, nearly 70 percent of all

available capacity could be generated by coal, whereas oil and nuclear

power would account for only 12 and 3 percent, respectively. However,

the specific fuel mix of available capacity varies greatly from company

to company and region to region. In the year 2000, it is projected that

the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and West regions will have significant capacity available from oil; the East-Central, Mid-America, and MidContinent regions will have even more significant coal capacity available; and the Northeast, Mid-Continent, and West regions will have the

most nuclear capacity available (Fig. 5.5). The dominance of the

‘other” fuel category in the Texas region is primarily due to the extensive use of gas.

If electric vehicles require less than total available capacity

for recharge, utilities which have both oil-fired and other available

capacity will avoid the use of oil wherever possible. Accordingly, for

101 ●
17320

16000

14000

12000

10000

o

a“

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

NET DEPENDABLE CAPACITY OTHER CAPACITY

PEAK OIL CAPACITY —

HOURLY DEMAND \

AND INTERMEDIATE OIL CAPACITY

CONVENTIONAL HYDRO CAPACITY

COAL CAPACITY

NUCLEAR CAPACITY

I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I 1 I I I 1 I I

MID- 2 4 6 8 10 NOON 2 4 6 8 10

NIGHT

PACIFIC STANDARD TIME

Source: Recharge Capacity Projection System (RECAPS), General Research

Corporation

Figure 5.3 Hourly Demand and Net Dependable Capacity for a Single

Utility (Southern California Edison Company, projected

peak summer day, 1985)

102 .
6000

4000

2000

0

COAL

NUCLEAR

1980 1990 2000 2010

YEAR

Source: Recharge Capacity Projection System (RECAPS), General Research

Corporation

Assumptions: The RECAPS model schedules the use of nuclear, coal, and

hydroelectric facilities before oil and gas facilities, and base-load facilities before

intermediate and peaking facilities to minimize operating costs. The model makes

use of capacity and demand projections developed by the electric utility companies in 1979.

Figure 5.4 Annual Capacity Available for Generating

Recharge Electricity

103
WEST

REGION

REGIONAL

PERCENT OF REGIONAL CAPACITY

CAPACITY, 109 kWh NUCLEAR COAL OIL OTHER

NORTHEAST

MID-ATLANTIC

EAST CENTRAL

SOUTHEAST

MID-AMERICA

SOUTHWEST

MID-CONTINENT

TEXAS

WEST

225.0

262.9

799.1

992.0

392.7

580.0

172.8

331.4

637.5

13.5

0.1

1.4

1.2

1.1

1,3

9.4

0.1

8.0

4.0

31.5

83.8

64.4

81.0

58.9

76.2

32.7

45.0

59.7

50.6

8.2

20.4

16.8

16.1

14.2

8.5

27.7

22.8

17.8

6.6

14.0

1.0

23.7

0.2

58.7

19.3

Source: Recharge Capacity Projection System (RECAPS), General Research

Corporation

Assumptions: The RECAPS model schedules the use of nuclear, coal, and

hydroelectric facilities before oil and gas facilities, and base-load facilities before

intermediate and peaking facilities to minimize operating costs. The model makes

use of capacity and demand projections developed by the electric utility companies in 1979.

Figure 5.5 Regional Fuel Mix of Annual Capacity Available for

Generating Recharge Energy in 2000

104
—

low levels of electric vehicle use coal would become much more important

in relation to oil for recharging (see Fig. 5.6).

As with total available capacity, the mix of fuels required to

recharge EHVs at any given level of usage would differ greatly from

region to region. Because of this variation, it will be important to

explore the possibility of encouraging EHV use first in those cities

where it would provide the greatest reduction in petroleum usage. Thus

far, these regional-type issues and their associated impacts, institutional barriers, policy implications, etc. have not been studied in

detail. However, an analysis of the regional fuel mix impacts for onepercent electrification of light-duty vehicular travel was performed to

determine where initial EHV implementation could best be directed (Table

5.2). At this level of market penetration, the best areas for EHV use

in terms of saving petroleum would be the Mid-Atlantic, the EastCentral, and the Mid-Continent regions. The least attractive would be

the Northeast and West Regions. Some of these regions are so large and

diverse, however, that individual cities within them are much more attractive for EHV use than the entire region. Denver in the West region

is a good example; it is far less reliant on petroleum-fired capacity

than the other major cities in the region (San Diego, Los Angeles, San

Francisco, and Seattle).

At the one-percent level of travel electrification, the MidAtlantic, East-Central, and Texas regions would make heavy use of coal,

and the Mid-Continent region would make heavy use of nuclear power.

Since this level of EHV use would require only a relatively small

portion of the total annual unused capacity available, the regional fuel

mix would vary greatly. For example, although the Mid-Atlantic is

dominated by oil in terms of total available capacity, very little would

be used for one-percent electrification of light-duty vehicular travel.

Instead, unused coal capacity would be sufficient to provide the

necessary energy.

Although regional impacts on all fuels have not been analyzed for

20-percent electrification of light-duty vehicular travel, an analysis

has been made which considered the national impact on petroleum usage

over the entire range of possible market penetrations (Fig. 5.7). With

the passage of time, less and less petroleum would be needed to recharge

EHVs because of the efforts of industry to shift to coal and nuclear

facilities. On the other hand, as more EHVs are used in any given year,

an increasing percentage of the recharge energy would come from petroleum. For example, in 2010 petroleum usage in generating recharge electricity would increase from 8 percent up to 20 percent as electrification of light-duty vehicular travel increased from 20 percent to 80

percent.

The utilization of EHVs would shift consumption of oil from automobiles to the electric utility industry. However, it would do so at a

105
o 0

I I I I

o 0 0

L

c

:

x

L I I I I

o 0 0

106
TABLE 5.2

REGIONAL FUEL MIX FOR ONE-PERCENT ELECTRIFICATION OF

LIGHT-DUTY VEHICULAR TRAVEL IN 2000

Region

Northeast

Mid-Atlantic

East-Central

Southeast

Mid-America

Southwest

Mid-Continent

Texas

West

National Totals

Source: Recharge Capacity Projection System (RECAPS), General Research

Corporation.

Assumptions: The RECAPS model schedules the use of nuclear, coal, and

hydroelectric facilities before oil and gas facilities, and base-load

facilities before intermediate and peaking facilities, to minimize

operating costs. Recharging is controlled to maximize the use of offpeak power available during late night and early morning hours when

demand is lowest. The model makes use of capacity and demand projections developed by the electric utility companies in 1979. Energy

required was assumed to be 0.5 kilowatt-hours per mile at the charging

outlet. This value reflects a mix of cars and light-duty trucks to

electrify one percent of light-duty vehicular travel in 1980, 1990,

2000, and 2010 (Table 6.1). Vehicles were assumed to be distributed

uniformly across the United States based on population. They were also

assumed to travel an average of 10,000 miles per year. Electrical distribution system efficiency was assumed to be 90 percent.

107
50

40

30

20

10

0

1980

1990

2000

0 20 40 60 80

ELECTRIFICATION OF LIGHT-DUTY

VEHICULAR TRAVEL, percent

Source: Recharge Capacity Projection System (RECAPS), General Research

Corporation

Assumptions: The RECAPS model schedules the use of nuclear, coal, and

hydroelectric facilities before oil and gas facilities, and base-load facilities before

intermediate and peaking facilities to minimize operating costs. Recharging is

controlled to maximize the use of off-peak power available during late night and

early morning hours when demand is lowest. The model makes use of capacity and

demand projections developed by the electric utility companies in 1979. Energy required was assumed to be 0.5 kilowatt-hours per mile at the charging outlet. This

value reflects a mix of cars and light-duty trucks to electrify 1 to 80 percent of lightduty vehicular travel in 1980, 1990,2000, and 2010 (Fig. 5.2.1). Vehicles were assumed to be distributed uniformly across the United States based on population. They

were also assumed to travel an average of 10,000 miles per year. Electric distribution system efficiency was assumed to be 90 percent.

Figure 5.7 Percent of Recharge Energy Demand from Petroleum

108
greatly reduced rate because much of the energy would be derived from

coal and nuclear power plants. Even though this would result in a net

national reduction in oil consumption, it would increase the use of

petroleum by the electric utility industry. This is because increases

in demand tend to require the operation of some peaking and intermediate

units, rather than base generating units, and these generally are less

efficient and require the use of petroleum. In February of 1980, the

mix of fuels used by the electric utility industry to satisfy national

demand was 10 percent nuclear, 52 percent coal, 23 percent oil, and 25 3

percent from other sources. These figures not only represent an effort

to convert generating units from oil use to alternative fuels, but also

reflect changes in fuel selection policy which establish oil as one of

the least cost-effective fuels. In comparison, the projected mix required to generate energy needed to electrify 20 percent of light-duty

vehicular travel in 1980 would be 1 percent nuclear, 52 percent coal, 38

percent oil, and 9 percent from other sources.

5.3 CHARGING PROVISIONS

5.3.1 Chargers

Electric and hybrid vehicles require a charger to interface

between the electrical outlet and the batteries during recharging. The

charger converts ordinary alternating current (AC) to the direct current

(DC) necessary for battery charging, delivering it at the proper voltage

for the type of battery being recharged, its state of charge, and the

overall rate of recharge. Little attention has been given in the past

to developing superior chargers for on-road electric vehicles, but the

engineering design problems should not pose any insurmountable obstacles. Development goals are to produce chargers which:

o Maximize battery life by controlling amount and rate of

recharge.

o Have high efficiencies. Present chargers deliver 60 to 70

percent of input electricity to the batteries; these efficiencies should be raised to 90-95 percent to minimize

electricity losses and thereby minimize drain on utilities

and costs to consumers.

o Reduce harmonics in electrical transmission lines. Chargers

can vary current in such a way as to increase energy losses

in the electrical distribution system and interfere with

control signals the utility sends over its transmission

lines.

o Include timers so EHV owners can plug in the charger when

they park the vehicle, but delay charging until the hour

off-peak rates become applicable.

109
o Provide interrupt mechanisms. A small radio receiver could

accept signals from the utility to automatically turn off

the charger during peak loads. Lower electricity rates

would probably be offered to persons with interruptable

service.

●

Since chargers must be compatible with the type and size of batteries, charger manufacturing and sales must be coordinated with battery

pack manufacturing and sales. Many electric and hybrid vehicles will

come equipped with on-board chargers which are compatible with the type

of battery in the vehicle. Lead-acid, nickel-zinc, and nickel-iron

batteries will use similar chargers, but the amount and rate of charge

should be adjusted to the rating of the battery pack to reduce the possibility of damage to the batteries. Lithium-metal sulfide batteries

will require chargers which monitor each cell individually, since overcharging any cell can cause severe damage. Zinc-chloride batteries will

probably use off-board chargers; these chargers will be larger in size

since they must circulate coolant through the battery during recharging.

A charger which operates from a standard 120-volt, 15-ampere

household outlet will probably be included with the purchase of an EHV.

Such a charger can in 8 hours provide energy for about 35 miles of

driving. A more powerful charger which operates from a 220-volt, 30- or

50-ampere outlet (such outlets are found in some homes for use with

dryers or electric ranges) might be offered as standard equipment or as

an optional extra with EHV purchase. This charger could accept a "quick

charge;” i.e., it could provide energy for approximately 100-220 miles

of driving in eight hours, or energy for about 50-100 miles of driving

in one hour.

5.3.2 Home Recharging Facilities

At-home recharging is the most convenient and least expensive

method of recharging personal EHVs, and until EHVs become numerous, will

probably be the only recharging means which is readily available. The

only equipment required in addition to the charger is an electric outlet

accessible to the EHV parking area. The EHV owner may wish to install a

high-powered electrical outlet in the parking area so the batteries may

be quick charged, and an additional meter so vehicle recharging can

utilize off-peak rates for electricity.

The number of vehicles that could be recharged at home is limited

by the availability of off-street parking with an accessible electric

outlet. In metropolitan areas, where the majority of EHVs would probably be located, between 50 and 85 percent of vehicles can be parked off

the street (Table 5.3). However, these include cars at multi-family

dwellings which are much less likely than single-family houses to have

access to an individually metered electrical outlet. Approximately 60

percent of all cars in metropolitan areas are located at single-family

dwellings with off-street parking. If each of these residences had

facilities to recharge only one electric vehicle, about 35 percent of

110
TABLE 503

ESTIMATED AVAILABILITY OF

population, thousands

Occupied Housing Units, thousands

With Parking, percent

Single Family, percent

With Parking, percent

Multifamily, percent

With Parking, percent

Persons Per Unit

Cars Available (estimate), thousands

Percent of US Total

Cars Per Occupied Housing Unit

Cars as Percent of Available Cars

At 1 Car Units

Single-Family

Multi-Family

At 2 Car Units

Single-Family

Multi-Family

At 3 or More Car Units

Single-Family

Multi-Family

Cars with Parking, percent’

United

States

211,391

70,830

83

63

78

37

91

2.98

85,178

100

1.20

39.4

24.0

15.4

45.6

35.0

10.5

15.1

13.0

2.1

56-83

Outside

SMSAs

56,427

19,586

77

75

73

25

87

2.88

23,321

27

1.19

44.1

32.9

11.2

42.2

34.5

7.5

14.0

12.5

1.5

65-77

CARS AND OFF-STREET

In SMSAs*

Total

154,964

48,674

85

61

80

39

92

3.18

59,628

70

1.23

36.9

21.5

15.4

47.3

36.7

10.6

15.8

13.7

2.1

52-85

In

Central

Cities

22,566

86

52

80

48

93

23,278

27

1.03

43.7

22.7

21.1

43.0

31.5

11.4

13.3

11.1

2.2

62-86

Outside

Central

Cities

26,109

84

70

79

30

91

36,778

43

1.41

32.5

20.8

11.8

50.2

39.9

10.3

17.3

15.3

2.0

58-84

Los Angeles

Long Beach

SMSA

6,926

2,520

94

61

94

39

94

2.75

3,243

4.6

1.28

37.1

20.4

16.7

45.9

34.4

11.8

17.0

14.5

2.5

67-97

Source: Current Housing Reports Annual Housing Survey, 1974, Part A, ~’S Department of Commerce,

Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C., 1976.

*

SMSA - Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas

Washington

DC

SMSA

3,015

981

71

56

54

44

93

3.07

1,302

1.5

1.33

32.1

14.9

17.2

48.0

35.3

12.7

19.9

16.9

3.0

47-71

+

Assumes each housing unit with parking has either one space (lower limit) or as many spaces as

cars available (upper limit).
all cars in metropolitan areas (25 percent of all cars) would have easy 3

access to recharging facilities. These percentages may rise slightly

in the future since many metropolitan areas require that new housing

units include off-street parking areas.

During the construction of a single-family dwelling, the individual cost of installing an additional high-powered (e.g., 250-volt,

50-ampere) outlet for EHV recharging would be modest, about $100.

Installing additional equipment and extending the wiring in existing

single-family dwellings would cost approximately $300 (Table 5.4).

Electric companies provide meters free; however, they would probably

charge for an additional meter to monitor off-peak electricity use

(e.g., Potomac Electric and Power Company currently charges $2 per month

for off-peak meters.

The costs for the installation of electric outlets for multifamily dwellings include individual meters, circuit breaker panels, and

outlets. The cost per stall is estimated to be about $400 for covered 4

parking and $500 for uncovered parking (Table 5.4). These costs would

also apply for installing recharging facilities in commercial garages.

Because of the greater convenience and lower cost of recharging at

single-family dwellings, these households are the most likely candidates

for EHV ownership, at least initially. In major cities, many vehicles

are parked in apartment or commercial garages. Private and public sector EHV policies which encourage the installation of recharging facilities in multi-car garages would open the opportunity to urban apartment

dwellers for EHV use.

5.3.3 Recharging Away From Home

There are a number of methods and facilities for recharging away

from a vehicle’s home base, such as biberonnage (recharge from electric

outlets at parking places in commercial and industrial parking lots, at

on-street parking places, or in municipal parking lots), quick-charge

service stations, battery exchange stations, and electrified highways.

Such facilities would provide the same refueling service to electric

vehicles as gas stations provide to conventional vehicles. The ability

to recharge away from home would help remove the range limitation, one

of the main obstacles to widespread acceptance of electric vehicles.

GaS station owners, battery manufacturers, electric utilities, commercial businesses, employers, and government agencies could all become

involved in the implementation of these facilities, but whether profit

*

Since the range of hybrid vehicles is not limited by battery charge,

away-from-home recharging is not necessary, although hybrid vehicles

may make use of these facilities.

112
TABLE 5.4

COST OF HARDWARE AND INSTALLATION FOR ELECTRIC OUTLETS FOR RECHARGING

(Outlet Rating: 240 Volts, 50 Amps Maximum)

Single-Family Dwellings 2

From meter through outlets

New Construction

Existing Construction

Multi-Family Dwellings or Parking Lots

Cost per stall including

individual meters5

New Construction

Existing Construction

Covered

$ 90

2933

392

392

Uncovered 1

$105

2714

497

508

Source: W. C. Harshbarger, Installation Costs for Home Recharge of

Electric Vehicles (Draft), General Research Corporation

RM-2291, January 1980.

Assumptions:

1. Includes locking, waterproof covers on outlet.

2. Cost of meter not included.

3. Circuit breaker panel mounted on interior wall, extend

existing wiring through walls.

4. Circuit breaker panel mounted on exterior wall.

5. Based on a line of ten stalls; includes individual meters,

circuit breakers, and outlets.

.

113
will be a sufficient motivating factor is unknown. Although the convenience of being able to refuel during trips may be appealing to electric vehicle owners, charging during peak daytime hours could overburden

utilities. The extensive requirements for facilities and their high

cost may be an important obstacle to the implementation of away-fromhome recharging, at least until a high level of electric vehicle penetration is reached.

Biberonnage refers to the practice of recharging an electric or

hybrid vehicle whenever it is parked away from its home base. The battery could be “topped off” or partially recharged over short periods of

time at numerous locations. An on-board charger would be a necessity,

as would be electric outlets at many parking places. The concept is

similar to the practice in very cold climates of providing electric

outlets in parking places so heaters may be used to prevent the engine

block from freezing. The costs for installing recharging facilities

would be roughly $500 per outlet, similar to that for installations in

apartment parking lots and garages (Table 5.4). In addition to commercial garages, electric vehicles could conceivably be parked by a

parking-meter type of device into which coins could be deposited for

electricity delivered.

A first step to biberonnage would probably be the provision of

recharging facilities by employers so that their employees could recharge their electric vehicles for the return home. However, since the

majority of people work during the day, off-peak electricity rates would

not apply, making recharging at work more expensive and more burdensome

on electric utility capacity than recharging overnight at home. Recharging facilities for visitors in commercial districts might be supplied by businesses to attract shoppers. Local governments might supply

recharging facilities in municipal parking lots to encourage EHV use

downtown.

Another possibility for range extension is quick-recharge service

stations. It is possible to recharge a fully-discharged propulsion battery to 50-60 percent of its capacity in an hour or less; exact times

and amounts depend on the type of battery. A quick-charge station could

then provide enough energy during a lunch hour, a business meeting, or a

shopping excursion to increase the effective daily range of an electric

vehicle by 50 percent or more.

To accept a quick charge, an EHV would have to be equipped with a

220-volt charger or, if the vehicle was of a standard design, the onboard charger could be bypassed and the station’s charger used.

Quick-charge stations could be located in regular gas stations,

but special facilities with high electrical capacity would be essential.

An 80-percent recharge in 45 minutes would require over ten times the

average power for an overnight recharge. Due to the high cost of

special facilities, operating personnel, peak-hour electricity rates,
and business profit, a quick charge would be much more expensive than an

overnight recharge at home. Therefore drivers of electric cars would be

unlikely to incur the expense and inconvenience of quick charges except

when essential to their travel plans. If electric cars achieve their

projected ranges, the need for quick recharges would be infrequent,

generally only on intercity trips. In consequence, quick-recharge

stations are unlikely to be as common as today’s gas stations.

A third facility which could provide range extension is a battery

swapping station. With proper design, a depleted battery pack can be

removed from a car and replaced with another fully-charged battery in

two or three minutes. The effect is to make refueling as quick and easy

as for conventional cars.

Battery swapping imposes a number of restrictions on electric

vehicles. First, the vehicles must be designed so that the battery can

be easily removed, yet be safely contained in collisions. Second, the

battery sizes must be standardized so that stations do not have to stock

a wide variety of battery packs to fit different cars. Third, the

leasing of batteries, as opposed to outright ownership, is essential.

Otherwise the user could not safely trade his battery for another which

might be near the end of its life, and consequently of much less value.

Swapping stations, perhaps in conjunction with battery manufacturers,

would necessarily be involved in lease administration. One advantage of

battery leasing is that it lowers the initial price of an EHV, spreading

battery equipment costs over the life of the vehicle. On the other

hand, it introduces administrative expenses beyond those of simple

ownership.

The cost of a battery swap has been estimated to

$7, depending on the size and location of the station.

be between $4 and

This is much

more than the cost of a home recharge because of the cost of facilities,

equipment, battery stocks, and personnel; but it may be a reasonable

price to pay for extending range by a hundred miles. The swap cost

would certainly be less than the cost of renting a conventional car for

the occasional long trip.

A very different concept of providing range extension to electric

vehicles and decreasing the gasoline use of hybrid vehicles is electrified highways, which electromagnetically transfer energy to vehicles.

An electrified highway would have a power strip installed flush with the

road surface in the center of one lane. The power strip safely carries

an alternating electric current which produces a magnetic field. When

*

Land costs are a significant portion of facility costs, and are usually

much higher at access points to busy freeways than along minor highways.

115
an electric vehicle equipped with a power pickup drives over the power

strip, the energy is magnetically coupled through a clearance gap between the source and the pickup device. The batteries are recharged

while driving over the power strip, and the stored energy can be used

for travel on non-electrified roads.

A study of an electrified highway system estimates 6

 that the power

pickup would add about $300 to the cost of an EHV. The roadway power

source, including installation in an existing highway, is estimated to

cost nearly $350,000 per lane-mile. However, it would only be necessary

to equip a few heavily traversed major routes with the roadway power

system to provide area-wide service with electric or hybrid vehicles.

Electrified highways are amenable to the inclusion of automatic

vehicle controls. The magnetic field from the roadway power source can

provide guidance and transmit other data to vehicles. Automatic vehicle

control appears to be a feasible means of achieving large increases in

the capacity of existing highway systems. Controlled vehicles could in

theory be safely operated at high speeds with short headways. 8

These

concepts are in the preliminary stages of development. Since the public

has demonstrated a strong preference for individual automotive transportation over mass transit systems, yet is reluctant to fund new highway

construction, increasing the capacity of existing highways becomes increasingly important. Electrified highways could provide dual benefits

of providing range extension for EHVs and guidance control for all vehicles.

5.4 MATERIALS

5.4.1 Materials Required for Automobiles

Since many similarities exist between electric and hybrid vehicles

and conventional cars, a shift to EHVs would affect materials usage only

to the extent that the electric motor, controller, and battery differ

from the internal combustion engine system of a conventional vehicle.

The primary materials used in typical present-day automobiles are

steel and cast-iron, plus aluminum, rubber, plastic, and other nonmetals (Table 5.5). Future automobiles will require considerably less

material overall, with higher proportions of light materials, such as

aluminum and plastic, increasing their shares from 6 percent to 12 percent and 7 percent to 9 percent of vehicle weight, respectively. EHVs

will require greater amounts of structural materials (30 to 70 percent

more structure and weight in near-term electric vehicles, depending on

battery type) to carry the added weight of the batteries. However,

since autos are rapidly being downsized, thereby using less structural

material, a switch to EHVs will slow the rate of decrease, rather than

increase, the consumption of structural materials.

116
Material

TABLE 5.5

MATERIALS IN TYPICAL US AUTOS, 1980 AND 1990

Weight, lb percent

Steel

Cast Iron

Aluminum

Copper, Brass

Zinc

Lead

Other Metals

Rubber

Glass

Plastic

Other Non–Metals

1980 1990 1980

1600

384

178

27

12

22

20

144

74

188

167

1368

200

299

14

8

18

35

128

70

231

151

Total 2816 2522

56.9

13.6

6.3

1.0

0.4

0.8

0.7

5.1

2.6

6.7

5.9

100.0

1990

54.2

7.9

11.9

0.6

0.3

0.7

1.4

5.0

2.8

9.2

6.0

100.0

Source: R. W. Roig et al., Impacts of Material Substitution

in Automobile Manufacture on Resource Recovery, VOl. 1, Results

and Summary, US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, EPA-600/5-76-007a, July 1976.

The electric motor which replaces the gasoline engine will be made

largely of iron and steel, like the conventional engine. It will, however, include windings of copper wire weighing perhaps 55 pounds for a

typical 330-pound motor. 9 This is Considerably more than the copper

content of automobiles today, and might double the copper content of the

average car. The US auto industry now uses about 8 percent of all the

copper consumed in this country. Thus, the maximum effect, assuming a

complete shift to electric cars, would be to increase copper demand less

than 10 percent. If EHV production built up over a period of years, the

additional copper requirement would have little effect on production or

on reserves and resources.

5.4.2 Materials Required for Batteries

Depending on the type of battery, large quantities of chlorine,

graphite, iron, lead, nickel, sulfur, and zinc will be used, plus

smaller quantities of aluminum, boron, cobalt, copper, lithium, and

potassium (Table 5.6). These materials, plus (in some cases) hydrogen

117
118
and oxygen, make up over 95 percent of the weight of each battery. Some

batteries may also use small amounts of such materials as antimony and

yttrium, but it is possible that other materials could be substituted.

Projected requirements are approximate, and could differ considerably in

the battery designs which may eventually prove most satisfactory.

5.4.3 Demand for Battery Materials

Demands for materials to manufacture batteries for EHVs will increase the existing and projected demand for these materials. Every

battery type requires quantities of at least one material which will

significantly affect demand. The percent increases in the baseline

primary (newly-mined) demand for battery materials sufficient to electrify 20 percent of the light-duty vehicular travel are shown in Table

5.7. The greatest increases in demand would be experienced if enough

electric vehicles to electrify 20 percent of light-duty vehicular travel

were built in 1985; the effects of EHV manufacture decrease in later

years as the baseline demand rises. In 1985, EHV manufacture could increase the demand in the United States for graphite over 65 percent, the

demand for cobalt and nickel 30 to 50 percent, the demand for lead 30 to

40 percent, and the demand for lithium almost 30 percent. The increase

in the United States1 baseline demand for any of these materials is less

than 30 percent by the year 2010. The production of lithium-metal sulfide batteries will more than double the United Statesl demand for lithium in the year 2000 if enough electric vehicles are manufactured to

electrify 20 percent of the light-duty vehicular traffic. The effect on

world demand is much smaller. In the near term, the increase in world

demand for any material is less than 20 percent, 10 percent in the long

term, except in the case of lithium where world demand could increase by

as much as 50 percent.

For a given level of travel electrification, hybrids affect

material demands less than electric vehicles because they require

smaller batteries.

5.4.4 Adequacy of Battery Material Resources*

The extraction of materials for the purpose of manufacturing batteries will deplete considerable portions of the known deposits of some

*

Resource: A concentration of material in the earth's crust naturally

occurring in such form that economic extraction is currently or potentially feasible.

Reserve: That portion of the resource from which a usable material can

currently be economically and legally extracted.

Identified Resource: Specific bodies of mineral-bearing materials

whose location, quality, and quantity are known from geologic evidence

supported by engineering measurements.

Potential Resources: Unspecified bodies of mineral-bearing material

surmised to exist on the basis of broad geologic knowledge and theory.

119
TABLE 5.7

PERCENT INCREASE IN PRIMARY DEMAND FOR BATTERY MATERIALS DUE TO

ELECTRIFICATION OF 20 PERCENT OF LIGHT-DUTY VEHICULAR TRAVEL

Percent Increase in Projected Baseline Primary Demand

1985 1990* 2000 201O*

us World us World us World us World

Batteryand Material —— EV HV EV HV EV HV EV HV EV HV EV HV EV

Near-Term Batteries

Lead Acid:

Lead

Sulfur

Nickel-Iron:

Cobalt

Copper

Iron

Lithium

Nickel

Potassium

Nickel-Zinc:

Cobalt

Copper

Nickel

Potassium

Zinc

Zinc-Chloride:

Chlorine

Graphite

Zinc

Advanced Batteries

Zinc-Chloride:

Chlorine

Graphite

Zinc

Lithium-Metal Sulfide:

Aluminum

Boron

Chlorine

Copper

Iron

Lithium

Potassium

Sulfur

40

1

27

1

0

29

32

n/a

50

0

51

n/a

4

0

66

1

30 9 7 37

0 0 0 0

10 25

0 1

0 0

15 22

8 27

n/a n/a

39 17 13 44

0 0 0 0

40 12 10 44

n / a n/a n/a n/a

3 1 1 3

0 0

10 60

0 1

HV EV HV

28 8 6 31 24 6 5 27 21 5 4

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 18 6 15 5

0 1 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

11 14 7 11 5

7 21 5 18 4

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

34 14 11 32 25 10 8 26 20 8 6

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

34 11 8 34 27 8 7 28 22 7 5

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

3 1 1 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 0

0 0 0 0 0

7 50 5 43 4

0 1 0 1 0

0 0 0

36 4 31

1 0 1

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

104 54 48 25 76

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

o 0 0 0 0

Source of Baseline Demand Figures: US Bureau of Mines, Mineral Facts and Problems, 1975 Edition,

US Government Printing Office, 1976 .

0

3

0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

40 35 18

n/a n/a n/a

o 0 0

*

Interpolated and extrapolated from 1985 and 2000 data.

120
materials. Depending on the type of battery, over 30 percent of the

United States’ reserves of lead and cobalt would be used in the number

of EHVs which would serve to electrify 20 percent of the light-duty

vehicular travel in the United States. The United States does not

currently produce nearly enough of the nickel required for nickel-iron

or nickel-zinc batteries or enough graphite for the zinc-chlorine

batteries. The advanced lithium-metal sulfide battery will require

almost twice as much lithium as is projected to be in the United States’

recoverable reserves by 2010; the requirement equals nearly 70 percent

of the United States1 resources.

Twenty percent of light-duty vehicular travel in the United States

could be electrified without using more than 7 percent of the world’s

identified resources of any single material, except in the case of

lithium for advanced lithium-sulfur batteries. These batteries could

use up over 30 percent of the World's lithium resources to power EHVs.

Table 5.8 shows how the cumulative demand for these materials from

1974 to 2010 compares with the 1974 reserves and resources, both without

EHVs and with electric or hybrid vehicles. The 1974 US reserves cannot

provide enough of any material except boron (and lead in the absence of

EHVs). Even the 1974 world reserves would be insufficient except for

cobalt, iron, nickel, and aluminum. Cobalt supply has an additional

problem-- it is produced primarily as a byproduct of copper mining, so

its availability may be limited by the amount of copper mined. However,

cobalt may also be extracted from nickel byproducts, so increased mining

of nickel for batteries may increase the amount of cobalt available.

The United States could most readily supply the materials needed

for lead-acid batteries, but it is unlikely that the availability of

resources will be a constraint on the production of any of the batteries

considered here.

The increasing demand for battery materials will be a strong

incentive for the development of identified resources. With these, the

US could meet its demand for all materials except aluminum, lithium, and

sulfur* The United States has only small reserves of bauxite, the main

source of aluminum at the present time. However, the United States has

large resources of other aluminum sources such as the kaolin-type clay

which could meet most of its aluminum raw material needs if the technology is developed. Sulfur can be recovered from secondary sources,

such as power plant desulfurization procedures necessary to comply with

environmental regulations. The current demand for lithium is very

small, so there has been little incentive for exploration. Identified

reserves and resources of lithium seem likely to be only a small fraction of deposits actually available in the earth's crust, and increased

demand will encourage exploration for new deposits.

121
TABLE 5.8

OF BATTERY MATERIAL RESOURCES WITH AND WITHOUT 20 PERCENT

ELECTRIFICATION OF LIGHT-DUTY VEHICULAR TRAVEL

Cumulative Primary Demand 1974-2010 as a Percent of 1974 Resourcesl

Identified Resources3

Recoverable Reserves2

us World — US World

w / o

EVs

82

299

114

139

107

118

5870

N/A

114

139

5870

N/A

182

A

722

182

with

EVs

117

300

146

140

107

147

7665

N/A

168

140

8760

N/A

189

A

1058

185

with

HVs

108

300

156

140

8135

N/A

188

w/o

EVs

134

163

77

136

34

106

79

N/A

77

136

79

N/A

145

A

344

l&5

W/O

Evs

40

109

77

31

24

42

78

Y/A

77

31

78

N/A

70

A

43

70

A

43

70

with

Evs

58

110

99

31

24

52

102

N/A

114

31

117

N/A

73

A

72

71

A

64

71

with

HVs

54

109

106

31

109

N/A

72

with

—EVs .

147

163

83

136

34

118

85

N/A

88

136

89

N/A

146

A

372

145

with

HVs

144

163

86

136

87

N/A

146

W/O

EVs

with

Evs

73

61

48

30

16

42

41

N/A

51

30

43

N/A

23

A

12

23

with

HVs

72

60

49

30

42

N/A

23

Battery & Materials

Near-Term Batteries

Lead-Acid:

Lead

Sulfur

Nickel-Iron:

Cobalt

Copper

Iron

Lithium

Nickel

Potassium

Nickel-Zinc:

Cobalt

Copper

Nickel

Potassium

Zinc

Zinc-Chloride:

Chlorine

Graphite

Zinc

Advanced Batteries

Zinc-Chloride:

Chlorine

Graphite

Zinc

 lithium-Metal

Sulfide:

Aluminum

Boron

Chlorine

Copper

Iron

Lithium

Potassium

Sulfur

67

60

44

30

16

37

39

N/A

44

30

39

N/A

23

A

11

23

A A

722 1058

182 185

A A

344 364

145 145

A

11

23

A

12

23

5620

46

A

139

107

118

N/A

299

5623

47

A

140

107

315

N/A

299

5626

46

A

140

107

219

N / A

299

46

35

A

136

34

106

N/A

163

46

35

A

136

34

192

N/A

163

46

35

A

136

34

151

N/A

163

1124

46

A

31

24

42

N/A

109

1127

47

A

31

24

111

h/A

109

1125

46

A

31

24

77

N/A

109

28

35

A

30

16

37

N/A

60

28

35

28

35

A

30

16

53

N/A

60

A

30

16

68

N/A

60

Source: US Bureau of Mines, Mineral Facts and Problems, 1975 Edit lo”, US Government Printing Office, 1976,

N/A . Data not available

A - Adequate

Numbers greater than 100 indicate that 1974 resources or reserves are inadequate to supply all required materials.

NOTES:

1. Resource: A concentration of material in the earth’s crust naturally occurring in such form that economic

extraction is currently or potentially feasible.

2. Reserve: That portion of a resource from which a usable material can currently be economically and legally

extracted.

3. Identified Resource: Specific bodies of mineral-bearing material whose location, quality, and quantity are

known from geologic evidence supported by engineering measurements.

122
To some extent this may be true of other battery materials as

well. Potential US nickel reserves may be over 800 times as large as

known reserves. For nickel, zinc, and lithium, potential reserves are

much larger than known resources, and world-wide they are vastly more

than would be required to electrify all US automobiles and still produce

enough material to satisfy the projected demand for other uses.

Increased demand will encourage increased production of identified

resources and exploration for new reserves. Beyond potential reserves,

there are presumably resources which are subeconomic at present prices

with present methods of extraction which might become available if

increasing demand causes a price increase sufficient to make extraction

of these resources economical.

5.4.5 Recycling

Initially, materials for batteries will come from primary (i.e.,

newly mined) sources. However, the size of the EHV fleet will eventually stabilize; then additional primary resources would be necessary

only to the extent that materials were lost in recycling and manufacturing. The recycling of lead from automotive batteries has been

estimated at over 80 percent.* For most future batteries, recycling

processes have yet to be developed, but they are expected to be very

efficient, with recovery rates well over 90 percent. In consequence,

the eventual effects of recycling losses on primary resources would be

relatively small. Significant quantities of battery materials would

need to be derived from primary sources only for the production of the

initial fleet. Recycling facilities will be built when recycling becomes more cost effective than the extraction of raw materials, but

recycling should be encouraged both to slow the depletion of natural

resources and to minimize the environmental problems associated with the

disposal of used batteries.

5*5 PRODUCTION AND SUPPORT

The EHV industry is currently in its infancy, as were today's

automobile and aircraft industries in 1900-1910 when horseless carriages

and flying machines were being produced by hand in limited quantities.

Today’s EHV industry consists primarily of small businesses which are

pioneering development on a very small scale. Currently about 20 firms

are manufacturing electric vehicles, producing less than 10,000 vehicles

in 1980.10 Unlike the major automobile manufacturers, these businesses

are very limited in the expertise and resources they can devote to the

design and test of vehicles, have very low production capacities, and

very little experience in providing parts and service. However, if EHVs

are going to replace any significant number of conventional vehicles in

*

The rate would be higher if more batteries were returned for recycling.

123
the near future, the production and support of EHVs will be accomplished

by the major automobile manufacturers who do have the necessary capabilities. In 1979 the United States ICE auto industry produced nearly

8.5 million cars in nearly 4000 manufacturing plants which were sold and

serviced at over 20,000 dealers. A total of over one half million

establishments are involved in the sales and servicing of these vehicles.11 General Motors is planning to market an electric vehicle in

1984, and other large companies (General Electric, Chrysler, Gulf &

Western, etc.) are developing EVs.

5.5.1 Production

Electric vehicles will differ from future conventional vehicles

primarily in the drive train and power supply. Hybrid vehicles will

have the major components of internal combustion vehicles plus an

electrical propulsion system. The body and accessories of EHVs will be

essentially the same as conventional cars. Since there are great

similarities among all the types of vehicles, most of the manufacturing

plants, materials, and operations will be unchanged. Expansion in

various industries will be required in the industrial capacity to

produce motors, controllers, and chargers. Major impacts will occur in

the battery manufacturing and recycling industries.

The major constraint to the immediate manufacture of substantial

numbers of electric or hybrid vehicles is the lack of capacity for battery production. A sizable lead-acid battery industry exists for

starting, lighting, and ignition batteries or golf-cart propulsion, but

this battery is not appropriate for electric or hybrid vehicles. But at

least the basic production techniques and bases for expansion exist.

Other types of batteries are only produced in limited quantities or are

in the experimental stages. Some require special handling techniques,

such as the high-temperature lithium-metal sulfide batteries, which

could make production more difficult. Gearing up for production of

these batteries would take a number of years.

The manufacturing of hybrid vehicles would require the use of the

same facilities and personnel as the manufacturing of conventional

vehicles, since hybrids will also contain an internal combustion engine,

although it will be smaller. The automotive industry will have to

retool, to some extent, to produce the modified equipment, but the

industry periodically retools to produce new vehicle lines in any case.

The manufacturing of electric vehicles would have a greater effect

than hybrids on the production facilities of automotive industries since

the equipment and personnel involved in the manufacturing of the internal combustion engine will no longer be required.

Both electric and hybrid vehicles will require motors, controllers, and chargers. Expansion of the electric motor production plants

and the construction of facilities to produce controllers and on-board

124
chargers will require some time and capital investment, but no obstacles

to producing these parts are foreseen, especially if increases in

electric and hybrid vehicle penetration are gradual, over a period of

ten years or so.

The motors required for EHVs are not significantly different from

electric motors now produced, although new motors will probably be

specifically designed to fit the needs of electric and hybrid vehicles.

A large electric motor manufacturing industry already exists, and with

some expansion should easily be able to produce the required quantities.

As the major motor vehicle manufacturers begin to produce significant

numbers of electric and hybrid vehicles, they will most likely begin to

make the motors themselves since the production requires techniques

similar to those for the production of conventional vehicle parts.

The electronics industry has expanded enormously in recent years.

Although EHV controls would be a new product, the industry should be

able to design and produce suitable equipment. Again, the automotive

industry will probably produce electric and hybrid vehicle controls,

since they already produce other types of electronic devices.

Battery chargers such as those used to recharge starting, lighting, and ignition batteries and forklift batteries are currently being

manufactured; but, due to their size and low efficiency, they are not

very well suited to recharging electric and hybrid vehicles. Little

attention has been paid to designing a suitable charger for electric and

hybrid vehicles, but the technology is available, and their production

should not cause any major problem (see Sec. 5.3.1).

Once substantial numbers of electric or hybrid vehicles are in

use, a recycling industry must be functioning to cut down on the requirement for primary materials. Only lead-acid batteries are currently

recycled. As yet, techniques have not been developed for recycling most

other batteries. However, the recycling industries would have a longer

lead time to develop processing capacity than the actual vehicle

production industries would have. A recycling industry would develop if

recycling is more economical than extraction, but the costs are unknown.

In any case, recycling should be encouraged because of the environmental

hazards of resource depletion and waste disposal.

5.5.2 Support

After EHVs leave the factory, they are distributed, marketed,

sold, maintained, and repaired. The major auto manufacturers already

have a large nationwide infrastructure for these purposes, but small

vehicle manufacturers currently have little or no support for their

products.

The Department of Energy is sponsoring a demonstration program in

which some 500 EHVs are operating at a number of sites across the

country. The current DOE demonstration program is encountering problems

125
associated with the repair and maintenance of EHVs. However, these

current problems stem primarily from the limited capabilities of the

small manufacturers providing the vehicles. They are not inherent in

EHV technology, which has the clear potential to reduce service requirements and improve vehicle reliability. By 1984, when GM has announced

it expects to market an EV, their resources and expertise with mass

production, distribution, and associated maintenance should minimize the

problems presently encountered by the small manufacturers. With proper

design and test, parts supply, and personnel training, all of which are

routine for large manufacturers few problems should arise. Electric

drive is inherently simple and in its few vehicular applications (industrial lift trucks, London's milk delivery vehicles) has been relatively

trouble-free. Although hybrids will be complicated by the interface

with an ICE, the engine itself will be smaller and simpler than conventional engines, and will be used less.

Maintenance of EHVs will also be enhanced because electric motors,

controllers, chargers, and battery-related parts may be more reliable

and simpler than those of an ICE. Electric highway vehicles now being

built have been no more reliable than conventional ICE vehicles, but

this appears to be primarily the result of inexperience and very smallvolume production without the extensive testing and design verification

which precedes high-volume production. In addition, much of the power

system will consist of solid-state electronic components. Maintenance

of these devices is generally limited to fault detection and module

(circuit board) replacement rather than complete disassembly and repair.

This should provide a major benefit, in terms of maintainability, and

the cost should not be excessive since the price of electronic equipment

has dropped drastically in the past few years. Complex control electronics, furthermore, are not a unique problem of EHVs: every GM car in

1981, for example, includes electronic engine controls directed by a

microcomputer, and computerized instrument panels are likely to follow

soon in many car models.

Another potential problem area is the time lag between the introduction of new technology vehicles and the ability of private maintenance shops to service these vehicles. It currently takes about one year

before motor manual publishers produce and distribute appropriate maintenance literature. However, this time period generally coincides with

the dealer warranty period, which tends to minimize any initial problems.

Any new technology will cause some problems for its users until

the “bugs” are worked out of the designs and production techniques, and

until maintenance personnel gain experience with the new systems.

However, if the massive infrastructure which is already in place is used

to supply training and parts for EHVs, rather than the current small EHV

producers building their own infrastructure, satisfactory support of

EHVs could be accomplished in the minimum time.

126
REFERENCES FOR SECTION 5

7.

20

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

80

9.

10.

11.

M. Collins and W. Carriere, Projected Supply of Electricity for

Electric Cars, General Research ~rporation IM-21OO, JUIY 1977.

US Department of Commerce, US Bureau of the Census, Current

Housing Reports, Annual Housing Survey 1974, Part A, US Government

Rrinting Office, 1976-

Energy Data Report, DOE/EIA-0005(80/01), US Department of Energy,

Energy Information Administration, Washington, D.C., February

1980.

W. Harshbarger, Installation Costs for Home Recharge of Electric

Vehicles, General Research Corporation IM-2291, March 1980.

C. Graver and L. lbrecraft, Electric Vehicle Range Extension:

Battery Swapping Facilities, General Research Corporation RM-2290,

Draft March 1980.

J. Bolger and F. Kirsten, Investigation of the Feasibility of a

Dual-Mode Electric Transportation System, Iawrence Berkeley

Laboratory, &lay 1977.

W. Hamilton and D. Nance, “Systems Analysis of Urban Transportation,” Scientific American, July 1969.

R. Fenton et al., Advances Toward the Automatic Highway, ohio

State University, January 1971.

W. Hamilton, Impacts of Future Use of Electric Cars in the Los

Angeles Region, Vol. II, ~ Environmental Protection Agency,

Alternative ~wer Systems Division, Ann Arbor, Michigan, October

1974.

Electric Vehicle Council Newsletter, Vol. 1, No. 10, Washington~

D.C., July 1980 0

Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, Facts and Figures ’80,

Detroit, Michigan, 1980.

127
6

.

MARKETABILITY

6.1 SUMMARY

In the coming decade, electric vehicles will probably offer sufficient range and performance for most urban travel by personal vehicles.

Near-term hybrid vehicles will probably be adequate not only for most

urban travel, but for most long-distance trips as well. From limited

survey data on vehicle use, it appears that electric cars with a 100-

mile range could electrify about 80 percent of the annual travel distance of the average US automobile. Hybrids with a 60-mile useful electric range could probably electrify an equal amount, because they could

be used on long trips which electric vehicle owners would make entirely

by an alternate ICE vehicle.

Nevertheless, market penetrations for electric and hybrid vehicles

are generally expected to be modest. Projections produced by several

independently-developed econometric models indicate market shares in the

mid-1990s of 1-10 percent, despite major advances in technology and the

advent of mass-produced EHVs in auto showrooms. The projections, however, are generally based on assumptions that real prices for gasoline

and electricity remain little changed. Under these conditions, the reduction of operating costs offered by EHVs is insufficient to offset

their higher initial prices and limited capabilities, at least for the

great majority of motorists.

The key uncertainty in such projections is the future price and

availability of gasoline in future years. Though EHV technology improvements are unlikely to suffice for substantial market penetration,

future EHVs could capture far more than 10 percent of the market if

interruptions in the supply of motor fuel recur, or if motor fuel prices

rise rapidly in relation to electricity prices and the overall price

level. As of late 1980, however, such price trends were not clearly

established.

The US Government is seeking to enhance the competitive position

of electric cars by subsidizing research, development, and demonstration

(RD&D) of new technology and by supporting fledgling EHV manufacturers.

Even if the RD&D is successful, however, major additional governmental

incentives would probably be necessary to obtain an EHV market share

exceeding a few percent, unless gasoline becomes relatively scarce and

expensive in relation to electricity. Projections of EHV market share

versus relative gasoline price are not available.

6.2 VEHICLE USE

Personal automobiles have brought Americans unparalleled mobility,

and with it the ability to choose among a wide variety of residential

settings and job opportunities, and to participate in a broad spectrum

128
of social, educational, recreational, religious, and cultural activities. With good reason, the American motorist seeks to preserve this

mobility even as resources of petroleum dwindle. TO examine his willingness to purchase an electric vehicle, then, it is necessary to begin

with the kinds of conventional vehicles in use, the travel they provide,

and the extent to which this travel might be curtailed by vehicles with

limited capabilities.

6.2.1 Types of Vehicles

There are about 146 million light-duty vehicles--passenger cars,

light trucks, and vans--in the United States. The days of rapid growth

of this light-duty vehicle fleet appear over (Table 6.1); one estimate

places the average annual increase at only 0.6 percent per year. Years

ago, growth was rapid as more and more families were able to afford

automobiles. NOW there are nearly,as many light-duty vehicles available

as there are Americans of driving age.

Passenger cars are expected to constitute roughly 80 percent of

light-duty vehicles in the future, as at present. Ninety-one percent

of passenger cars are personal vehicles, while the remainder are operated in fleets. In 1979, 56 percent of new passenger cars were domestic

subcompacts and compacts, or else imported. Twenty-four percent were 2

intermediates, and only 20 percent were standard or luxury models. The

future percentage mix of four-, five-, and six-passenger cars will probably move even further towards the smaller vehicles, as it has tended

to do over the past decade. This trend tends to favor EHVs, which are

more expensive to buy than comparable conventional cars and thus are

more likely to be beyond the average family budget unless small.

The trend toward smaller passenger cars has in part been offset by

3

increased personal use of trucks. In the decade 1968-1977, truck sales

grew at 6.1 percent per year, versus 3.6 percent per year for passenger

cars. This growth was interrupted by motor fuel shortages and price increases largely due to reductions in Iranian production during late 1978

and early 1979; whether it will resume is uncertain. Demand for personal trucks shifted industry output towards the light-duty versus

heavy-duty trucks; by 1980, 90 percent of all new trucks were under

10,000 pounds gross weight, versus 77 percent ten years earlier. About

60 percent of all light trucks are in personal use. Most light trucks

are pickups, and most of those standard rather than compact in size.

Vans account for something under 20 percent of all light trucks, while

utility vehicles and other light truck designs account for about 10 percent.

6.2.2 Urban Use of Personal Vehicles

In urban travel, distances are usually shorter than in travel

outside and between urban areas. For this reason, it is generally expected that electric cars with limited ranges will be used primarily in

129
Year

1980

1985

1990

2000

2010

Source:

TABLE 6.1

PROJECTED SIZE AND COMPOSITION

US LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE FLEET

Total

Vehicles,

millions

146.1

154.5

161.8

167.6

175.2

Passenger

Cars,

millions

117.5

122.3

128.0

132.1

136.9

Light

Trucks,

millions

28.6

32.2

33.8

35.5

38.3

Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025,

ORNL/Sub-78/14285/1, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,

Light

Trucks,

percent

19.6

20.8

20.9

21.2

21.9

Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

Assumptions:

. Moderate population growth (US Bureau of the Census, “Series II”)

. Moderate economic growth (1 percent per year growth in per capita

disposable income)

● Maximum car/population ratio of 0.53 in 1980-1990 (versus 0.50 in

1975), declining to 0.51 in 2000 and 0.50 in 2025

● Termination of the current growth trend in number of light trucks

per capita in 1985

urban travel. About three-fourths of the personal cars in the United

States are based in urban areas, and about one-third of urban-based cars 4

are second or third cars at multi-car households. These cars are

driven much less than the average and might easily be electrified

because another car at the household could be used for long distance

130
travel or carrying large loads. The short distances in urban travel are

also suitable for electrification by hybrid cars, which must use petroleum fuels only in long-distance travel.

Though average urban travel is undemanding, roughly 20-25 miles

per day, most urban cars are driven much longer distances at least

occasionally. The critical questions then for EHVs are these: How much

of the time would a given electric range suffice

What fraction of the total distance driven could

tric power from utilities?

The most useful answers to these questions

full-day driving, i.e., driving required between

for typical EV drivers?

hybrids travel on elecare based on typical

overnight recharges.

At present, facilities are unavailable for recharges during the day away

from home, and it is not clear that they will ever be widely dispersed.

4

Detailed information on full-day travel in two large US cities is available. The data from Los Angeles, a reasonable example which was specifically analyzed for EHV applications, shows:

o At households with only one driver on the survey day, 95

percent of the drivers reported driving less than 93 miles.

o At households with more than one driver, 95 percent of the

secondary drivers reported less than 47 miles, while 95 percent of the primary drivers reported less than 137 miles.

The primary driver at each multi-driver household is that driver reporting the greatest total driving distance on the survey day. The secondary drivers were all other drivers reporting driving at these households. These three groups of drivers, only, primary, and secondary

drivers, are approximately equal in size. The distances traveled by the

vehicles they drove are very close to the distances traveled by the

drivers because very few drivers shared a single vehicle on the survey

day.

These data give a good picture of travel by many drivers on a

single day. They are based on a very large sample, all the drivers at

around 30,000 households. It is uncertain, however, what they imply for

a single driver during many consecutive days. There is little information to show whether the drivers reporting little total travel on a

given day are unlikely to travel long distances on any day, or whether

all drivers in a class are equally likely to travel a long distance in a

day. The latter has been generally assumed for electric vehicle analyses. Thus it is assumed that an electric car with a range of 93 miles

would suffice for 95 percent of the urban travel days of drivers at

households with only one driver.

A large increase in range is necessary to make electric cars capable of all driving on 98 percent rather than 95 percent of driving days

(3 extra days out of each hundred). For only drivers, the necessary

range increase would be 45 percent (from 93 to 135 miles) (Fig. 6.1).

131
95

90

70

60

SECONDARY

.

.

20 30 40 60 80 100 150 200

FULL-DAY TRAVEL DISTANCE, miles

SOURCE: LOS ANGELES ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY, 1967

Primary driver: the driver reporting more travel than any other driver

at a multi-driver household

Secondary driver: any driver other than the primary driver at a multidriver household

Only driver: the only driver reporting travel at a single-driver

household

Figure 6.1 Distributions of Full-Day Urban Driving Distance Reported

by Major Categories of Drivers

Because the increase is large it would add substantially to the expense

of the electric car; and for only 3 days out of every hundred, the extra

expense may not be justified. It appears, for example, that renting an

ICE car for long travel days becomes cheaper when electric car range is

somewhere between the 95th and 98th percentile requirement of only

drivers. 4

The survey data discussed above is 13 years old and comes from a

city long regarded as exceptionally dependent on automobiles. Better

132
data will not become available until a new national survey of similar

overall size made during 1977 is completely analyzed. Meanwhile, the

Los Angeles results remain useful and probably relevant. There is

little reason to expect that there have been large changes in personal

vehicle use since 1977: freeway networks changed little in the 1970s,

and the average travel per passenger car in the United States in 1978,

the most recent year for which data is available, was little more than

in 1968 (10,046 versus 9,507 miles). The probable decline in average

travel per passenger car since the summer of 1979 has probably brought

average travel per vehicle in 1980 even closer to that of the Los

Angeles survey. Annual travel per passenger car is among the most

stable of national travel statistics: over the 50 years from 1930 to

1980 it has moved within a 6 or 7 percent range around 9,500 miles

(excepting only the years of gasoline rationing during World War II).

Average travel per automobile in the LOS Angeles area, furthermore, is

not atypical; in fact, both the survey discussed here and annual estimates reported by the Department of Transportation for California suggest average annual vehicle use in Los Angeles is a little less than the

national average.

Survey data from Washington D.C. taken in 1968 shows daily travel

distances somewhat below those of Los Angeles. For secondary drivers,

the 95th percentile travel distance reported on the survey day was 25

percent less than in Los Angeles, while for primary drivers it was

nearly 50 percent less (Table 6.2). Somewhat less travel is to be

expected because the Washington area is much smaller physically than the

Los Angeles area, so maximum distances of single urban trips are more

limited. Furthermore, the central focus of the Washington area is much

greater and there was much less freeway available per car, making long

trips slower and more difficult. Even so, there remain reasons to question the lesser travel indicated by the Washington survey. 4

In any

case, both the Washington and Los Angeles data indicate that to meet the

needs of 95th percentile drivers, cars must seat 3 to 4 persons, and

that in Los Angeles freeway capability is required. It may still be

that substantial percentages of cars could be limited in size and performance to two passengers and slow speeds; but the data suggests that

such “urban" cars would be unsatisfactory for the great majority of

drivers unless patterns of vehicular use change substantially.

An electric car with 100-mile range would suffice for the travel

of households with only drivers on 96 percent of urban travel days,

according to the Los Angeles data (Fig. 6.1). The 100-mile range would

also have sufficed for 96 percent of all drivers taken together in Los

Angeles. This does not imply, however, that the 100-mile electric cars

could accomplish 96 percent of the total urban travel of all drivers.

Instead, a safer estimate would be 80 percent of all miles driven (Fig.

6.2). Drivers who travel over 100 miles in a day account for a disproportionate fraction of the total distance traveled. If none of them

could use an electric car for any portion of their full-day travel, and

133
TABLE 6.2

NOMINAL REQUIREMENTS FOR PERSONAL URBAN ELECTRIC CARS

(to satisfy 95th percentile requirements)

Secondary Car

Only Car

Primary Car

Range, miles Capacity, persons

*

35-47+

3-4

53-93 3-4

68-137 4

Source: W. Hamilton, Electric Automobiles, McGraw-Hill Book Company,

New York, 1980.

*

‘-Based on Washington, D.C., data from 1968

*

‘Based on Los Angeles data from 1967

always substituted ICE cars instead, then the 100-mile electric car

could electrify about 80 percent of urban travel. If part of these

long-distance travel requirements could have been met by electric cars,

then the percentage could be as high as 96 percent. It seems unlikely,

however, that a driver would take trips such that the full range of the

electric car could be entirely used before the switch to an ICE car for

the remainder of the day's travel.

The driver of a hybrid car, however, can conveniently utilize the

entire electric range of the car before switching to ICE propulsion.

Thus a hybrid with 100-mile useful electric range could electrify 96

percent of urban travel, and hybrids with shorter electric ranges could

still electrify as much urban travel as the 100-mile electric car (Fig.

6.2).

Electrification has so far been discussed only for average cars

(or only cars at one-car households). If used as secondary cars, the

100-mile electric car could electrify almost all urban travel by secondary drivers, but this would amount to less total travel mileage per

car then electrifying 80 percent of annual travel by the average car.

The reason is that secondary cars travel perhaps 6,000 miles per year,

134
HYBRID

I

20 30 40 60 80100 150 200

ELECTRIC RANGE, miles

SOURCE: LOS ANGELES ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY, 1967

Assumptions: Hybrid vehicles electrify the first M miles of fullday travel by all drivers, where M is the useful electric range of

the hybrids. Electric vehicles electrify only the full-day travel

reported by drivers who traveled less than the maximum electric range

of the vehicles.

Figure 6.2 Potential Electrification of Urban Driving by

Electric and Hybrid Cars

compared with 10,000 miles per year for the average car. Because usage

of secondary cars is undemanding, electric cars are often advocated for

second-car application. On the other hand, second cars today are ordinarily relatively old and inexpensive cars which were not purchased new.

Electric cars may be entirely too high-priced for this application,

given limited consumer budgets for transportation. It seems more likely

that with the advent of EHVs, patterns of use will change, at least at

multi-car households where different assignments of trips among household vehicles are possible. In the future, travel may be reassigned to

maximize electrification of household vehicle-miles. The ICE car could

become the second car; it would be used when the other (electric) car

135
was already busy, as at present, but unlike today’s secondary cars it

would also be used for long trips because they could not be accomplished

by the electric car. Because such changes in usage seem likely, it is

most appropriate here to focus on electrification of average car travel

rather than secondary car travel.

The percentage of urban travel by the average car which could be

electrified by an electric car of 100-mile range probably lies somewhere

between the extremes just described (80-96 percent). If the actual percentage were halfway between these extremes, it would be about 85 percent for the 100-mile electric car, about the same as the electrification of urban travel by a hybrid with a useful electric range of some 60

miles.

6.2.3 Overall Use of Personal Vehicles

The addition of long-distance trips, beyond the urban

urban travel gives overall travel by personal vehicles. It

long-distance trips account for roughly 10 to 15 percent of

area, to

appears that

the total

distance travelled by personal vehicles. A large minority of households

with personal vehicles, 38 percent, reported no such trips in an entire

year (Table 6.3). Households making such trips, however, reported an

average of five for the year, with an average distance of 620 miles.

Furthermore, 43 percent of the total long-distance travel mileage was in

trips of over 1,000 miles and 25 percent was in trips over 2,000 miles.

Long-distance travel is important for electric vehicles because it

represents an important component of total personal vehicle travel which

they could not accomplish. It would require use of an ICE vehicle--

either one rented or available at the household. Hybrids, on the other

hand, could accomplish at least the first part of a long trip on stored

electric energy. A hybrid with a 60-mile useful electric range would

accomplish about 10 percent of total long-trip distance on electric

power, assuming no recharges after leaving home. With a 180-mile electric range, the hybrid would accomplish nearer 30 percent of the total

long-distance travel on electricity.

Combining long-distance and urban travel electrification gives

overall electrification potential for hybrid and electric cars. The

biggest uncertainty arises in urban travel. Multi-vehicle households

have considerable latitude in how both hybrid and electric vehicles can

be affected greatly by the manner in which vehicles are assigned to

trips in multi-vehicle households, as well as by the length and number

of trips on long-distance travel days.

If the 100-mile electric car or the 60-mile hybrid could each

electrify about 85 percent of the urban travel by the average car, then

the addition of long-distance travel would reduce total electrification

to about 77-78 percent. This would probably be increased in both cases

by trip reassignment among household cars to minimize gasoline use.

136
.

0

0

0

o

137
Accordingly, a reasonable estimate of electrification for use in this

report appears to be 80 percent of average annual vehicle miles traveled, both for the electric car with 100-mile maximum range and the

hybrid with a useful electric range of 60 miles.

6.2.4 Non-Personal Vehicles

Light trucks in various non-personal uses have often been singled

out as promising candidates for electrification. In such stop-start

missions as mail delivery, utility meter reading, and coin telephone

servicing, electric vehicles first promise to be cost-effective in the

United States.

The only major use today of on-road electric vehicles in the world

is commercial, for milk delivery in England. Vehicles are specially

built for this purpose, whether they use diesel or electric propulsion,

so the electric vehicles compete on equal terms rather than with massproduced conventional vehicles. In this application, the low speeds,

frequent lengthy stops, and short ranges required are easily managed by

the electric vehicles, but tend to result in high fuel use and maintenance for comparable diesel vehicles. 5

AS a result, the electric vehicles have proven cheaper overall. Conditions for milk delivery in the

United States, however, are different and ill-suited to electric vehicles.

Total non-personal use accounts for about 40 percent of all light

trucks. Unfortunately, relatively few non-personal trucks are now in

the utility services --meter reading, coin telephone servicing--which

appear most favorable for electric vehicles, and little change is expected here in the future (Table 6.4). Overall, the total number of

utility vehicles which are amenable to electrification may be on the

order of 100,000. Postal delivery vehicles (not included in Table 6.4)

number a little over 100,000; their stop-start mission makes them

amenable to electrification. Taken together, however, utility and

postal vehicles which could reasonably be electrified constitute only 2

to 3 percent of non-personal light trucks.

Except in these applications, range requirements for light trucks

are quite demanding. Range requirements for personal electric light

trucks probably equal those of personal electric urban automobiles.

Range requirements for fleet61ight trucks, based on a survey of fleet

operators, are even greater. It appears that electric light trucks

with 100-mile range would satisfy the range requirements of under 10

percent of fleet trucks, though this is inconclusive because of the low

response rate in the fleet operator survey.

The fleet operator survey also disclosed that requirements for

passenger cars operated in commercial fleets are generally demanding as

well, not just in terms of range, but also speed and passenger capacity.

138
TABLE 6.4

APPLICATIONS OF NON-PERSONAL LIGHT TRUCKS

Major Use

Agriculture

Services

Construction

Wholesale and Retail Trade

Utilities

Manufacturing

For Hire

Forestry and Lumber

Other

Percent

1975 1995

40 26

18 28

15 14

14 17

5 6

3 4

1 1

1 1

3 3

Source: Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025,

ORNL/Sub-78/14285/l, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,

Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

This is corroborated by independent investigations of the willingness of

fleet operators to use electrics and EHVs, as discussed below.

6.3 MARKET PENETRATION ESTIMATES

Estimates of market penetration for EHVs are generally unsatisfying because they are based on inadequate and incomplete data. They lend

some substance to the obvious inference that cars which cost more and do

less are unlikely to capture a large market share. They do not establish, however, whether the market share which will be captured is large

enough, 2 or 3 percent, to support mass production and the associated

vehicle prices assumed in the estimates. Furthermore, most existing

estimates are based on little change in the price and availability of

gasoline relative to the mid-1970s.

139
0 SRI International estimated for the Department of Energy

that some 3.5 percent of the US light vehicle fleet in 2000 7

might be electric. The estimate was based largely on supply considerations, i.e., the times required to develop improved technology, demonstrate effectiveness, develop commercial designs, tool up for production, and replace vehicles in the existing fleet. The SRI scenario made generally

optimistic assumptions about the process by which decisions

to produce are made, including full success for the DOE EHV

research, development, and demonstration program by 1985.

0 Arthur D. Little, Incorporated, made projections of EHV

market penetration for DOE with and without additional 8

government incentives beyond the RD&D program. The ADL

projection was based on consumer panel surveys, plus the

optimistic assumption that electric vehicles would be massproduced with effective nickel-zinc batteries in 1983. For

personal vehicle sales in 1983, market penetration for electrics was estimated at 0.4 percent, and for hybrids a little

under 2 percent. For non-personal vehicles, market potential was investigated through interviews with fleet operators which revealed no “sizeable market” in 1983.

0 Cambridge Systematic, Incorporated, estimated market penetration for the Department of Energy using an econometric 9

model of auto choice decisions modified for EHVs. Penetrations of zero to 2.2 percent of sales in the year 2000 were

estimated for the "most likely" case, which included an advanced 150-mile electric car with high-temperature battery.

In the “optimistic” case, an advanced hybrid tripled market

penetration.

o Mathtech, Incorporated, projected electric vehicle penetration into the US 10vehicle fleet for the Electric Power Research Institute. With an econometric model modified to

account explicitly for limited range, plus optimistic assumptions about technology, 9 percent of vehicles were projected to be electric in the year 2000. The technological

assumptions were optimistic, however, and the actual effect

of range limitation on market penetration was negligible in

the Mathtech model.

In short, projections to date suggest that 1 to 10 percent of the

US vehicle fleet may be EHVs in 2000. All the projections assume, explicitly or implicitly, conditions more or less like those prevailing in

1980. Only the ADL projections, the most conservative of those noted,

utilized any direct information about consumer valuation of operating

range and rapid refueling capability.

140
The ADL Analysis is unique because it obtained explicit information from consumers about the relative values they attached to range,

purchase price, and other attributes of electric and hybrid cars. One

hundred ninety-three auto owners served on panels of consumers who

examined both their own actual driving behavior and the probable characteristics of future electric, hybrid, and conventional vehicles. Thus

they understood to some extent the implications of the choices they were

asked to make among 16 hypothetical electric, hybrid, and conventional

vehicles with various capabilities, limitations, and costs. It would be

more satisfactory, of course, to infer consumer preferences from actual

purchases in the marketplace. But today’s auto market does not include

electric and hybrid vehicles, or other vehicles with similar limitations, on any significant scale.

Because of its unique value, the ADL preference data is being reanalyzed by Charles River Associates for the Electric Power Research

Institute. Results presented to date are especially useful because

they make explicit the tradeoffs which consumers make between driving

range, acceleration, seating capacity, price, and annual fuel costs (for

electricity or gasoline) . These tradeoffs are critical to effective design of electric vehicles as well as to their probable market penetration. The findings show that the average consumer surveyed would pay:

o $2,100 to $3,700 more to avoid 7-hour refueling (or recharge) times (depending on whether vehicle range between

refueling were 200 or 50 miles)

o $6,500 more to increase range from so to 200 miles

o $3,900 more to increase maximum speed from 45 mph to 65 mph

o $2,000 more to obtain average rather than low acceleration

o $3,500 more for four seats rather than two

o $2.16 more initially to save $1 annually thereafter in

operating costs.

Clearly, the average consumer in the ADL panels values the range

and the quick refueling capability of the conventional car very highly,

and values speed, acceleration, and capacity sufficiently that in the

absence of data to the contrary, it is hard to foresee a major role for

a limited-performance two-passenger urban automobile in the future.

Such vehicles would, of course, cost less to buy and to operate. It is

precisely the costs of purchase and operation, however, which the ADL

consumer panels addressed as they expressed preferences among the variety of options described to them. Their concern with range, performance, and capacity are especially noteworthy because all panelists came

from two-car households in urban areas with mild climates, and none commuted long distances. Furthermore, they were asked to indicate their

141
preferences among the hypothetical electric, hybrid and

cars as a replacement for their second car, rather than

demanding application.

conventional

for some more

Given the valuations of performance and capability from the ADL

Data, summarized above, electric cars can be designed (for a given technology) to offer the best overall combination of range, price, and

annual cost for the average motorist. This leads to ranges of 85-90

miles for cars with near-term batteries having the capabilities and

costs projected in Fig. 3.10, and 125-150 miles for cars with advanced

batteries.

6.4 COST AND AVAILABILITY OF FUEL

The ultimate market potential of EHVs depends greatly upon the

relative price and availability of petroleum fuels and electricity. To

the extent that gasoline and diesel fuels become more expensive or less

available relative to electricity, motorist would have an incentive to

switch from conventional vehicles to EHVs.

Since the OPEC oil embargo of 1974, the US has faced unstable

energy supplies and much higher prices. Supply disruptions in 1979

focused public concern clearly on the energy issue. The problem has

been that over the last decade, petroleum consumption has continued to

rise in the United States, but domestic production has remained relatively constant. As a result, it has become necessary to rely on

foreign imports to satisfy an increasing share of our demand (48 percent

in 1979). Recent disruptions in foreign supply have clearly demonstrated our vulnerability. To some extent, motorists may purchase EHVs as a

hedge against further disruptions, even though petroleum fuels may remain as available as they have been in 1980, and no more costly.

The price indices for gasoline, electricity, and all consumer

goods have risen at roughly the same rate during the period 1960-1979

(Fig. 6.3). Gasoline prices generally lagged behind electricity prices

through 1973, but, as a result of the 1973-1974 OPEC oil embargo, they

jumped ahead of electricity prices and the consumer price index. During

the following years, gasoline prices fell in relative terms until the

Iranian crisis of 1979 led to another abrupt increase. During 1980,

gasoline prices have risen much more slowly than electricity prices,

which appear to be “catching up” as they did in 1975-1978. At the

typical 1980 prices used in this report ($1.25 per gallon, 6 cents per

kilowatt-hour average, and 3 cents per kilowatt-hour for off-peak recharging), gasoline has risen about 30 percent relative to average residential electricity since 1967. If this differential increases, EHVs

could become important factors in the auto market, in personal transportation, and in the conservation of petroleum.

142
300

250

200

150

125

100

75

CONSUMER

ELECTRICITY

GASOLINE

I I I I I

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

YEAR

Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States,

Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1979

Figure 6.3

Department

Gasoline, Electricity, and Consumer Price Indices,

1960 Through 1979 (average)

of

143
Experience during the 1973-1974 OPEC oil embargo and the 1979

disruptions in supply indicates that long lines at service stations--and

concern about the unavailability of fuel --may affect motorists more than

the price increases accompanying them. Quarterly figures for gasoline

prices and sales support this clearly. In fact, the rapid response of

the public, in terms of demand, is clearly evident in analyzing annual

consumption of all motor fuels, including diesel, since 1960 (Fig. 6.4).

Each major crisis was immediately followed by a sharp decrease in consumption. However, in 1973-1974, this sharp decrease was followed by a

resumption of normal growth after only about two years. Whether this

will happen again as a result of the 1979 crisis is unclear.

Future prices and availability of gasoline and diesel are difficult to predict because they are dependent upon many imponderable,

largely government actions, both foreign and domestic. The cutoff of

Iranian production, future OPEC price and supply decisions, and the

ability of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to continue stepped-up production to

make up for other shortfalls are typical of situations that could have

great influence in the future.

The price and availability of electricity is also influenced by

increased prices for foreign oil, as well as by increased costs of capital for construction and public resistance to development of new nuclear

power plants. Although an average price of 6 cents per kilowatt-hour is

used in this report to represent the national average, it is important

to note that prices vary greatly from region to region and company to

company. This variation is on the order of 8: 1.

One means of minimizing the impact of EHVs on the electric utility

industry is to make use of existing underutilized capacity, rather than

constructing new power plants. This can best be done if recharging is

accomplished during off-peak periods. Establishment of low off-peak

electricity prices would help to encourage recharging during these

periods, particularly if the difference between the peak and off-peak

rates were great. As an example, a recent report regarding peak and 12 off-peak pricing for five electric utilities in California estimated

that the off-peak price of electricity would range between 2 and 4 cents

per kilowatt-hour, even though the utilities’ peak rates varied between

4 and 14 cents per kilowatt-hour. The specific estimates for Pacific

Gas and Electric (serving the San Francisco area) were 14.0 cents per

kilowatt-hour at the peak rate, and 2.4 cents per kilowatt-hour for the

off-peak rate. For averge driving, this would result in an additional

$50 per month if on-peak rather than off-peak recharging were used. Not

all electric utilities will have this large a differential in peak and

off-peak prices. As a result, off-peak pricing may be more effective in

some areas of the country than in others.

144
● d

SUO@ ~ol ‘NOlldwnSNOo l=nd HOIOW

145
6.5 INCENTIVES

The EHV industry is currently in the embryonic stage of development. As a result, it faces stiff competition from the fully-developed

conventional automobile industry. Not only are the capital costs required to penetrate the automotive market great, but so are the associated risks. Nevertheless, the potential benefits to the country of an

expanded EHV industry are also great. Consequently, the Federal Government has undertaken to play a major role in supporting the development

of the EHV industry.

In 1976, the Congress passed the Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research, Development, and Demonstration (EHV RD&D) Act (Public Law

94-413). Since that time, the Department of Energy has supported an

extensive program whose objectives are to improve the capabilities of

and expand the market for EHVs. The total budget initially authorized

for this program was $160 million through September 1981. Additional

funds have been appropriated since that time, particularly in the area

of advanced battery research and development. The recent inclusion of

EHVs in the calculation of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE), resulting from an amendment to the Chrysler Corporation Loan Guarantee Act

of 1979 (PL 96-185), represents a further Federal effort to encourage

their development.

Other means that could be employed to increase the acceptance and

use of EHVs include subsidies and tax credits for both producers and

purchasers of vehicles, tax credits for electricity used to recharge

vehicles, markets for EHVs guaranteed by the Federal Government, and

vehicle sharing schemes whereby limited use of a larger conventional

vehicle is guaranteed as part of the purchase of an EHV. Possible disincentives for conventional vehicle use, which would improve the relative position of EHVs, would be to increase automotive fuel taxes or

vehicle purchase taxes. Gasoline rationing could tend to encourage the

purchase of fuel-efficient conventional vehicles rather than EHVs if it

is simply used to allocate a limited supply of gasoline without price

increases. Rationing accompanied by a ‘white market” in ration coupons

would encourage EHV sales by allowing increases in the effective price

of gasoline.

6.5. 1 Present Incentives

The stated goal of the EHV R&D program approved by Congress in

1976 is to assure the availability and broad market acceptance of

vehicles that depend primarily on externally generated electricity for

propulsion energy in order to minimize dependence on imported oil13 while

maintaining continued flexibility in the transportation sector.

The program initially consisted of three major elements: Demonstrations, Incentives, and Research and Development. A fourth major

element, Product Engineering, was subsequently added. The purpose of

the Demonstration program element is to show that EHVs can perform

146
functions presently accomplished by petroleum-fueled vehicles, to

develop the market for EHVs, to develop the support systems necessary to

maintain the vehicles in practical operations, and to provide a cash

flow to manufacturers. The purpose of the Incentives program element is

to remove barriers and facilitate the development and subsequent use of

EHVs, primarily through business loan guarantees, small business planning grants, and special studies on barriers to using EHVs. The purpose

of the Product Engineering program element is to accelerate the commercialization of EHVs by facilitating the transfer of improved technology

into the marketplace, thereby bridging the gap between the Research and

Development and the Demonstration elements of the program. The purpose

of the Research and Development program element is to advance EHV technologies to the point where they are more acceptable, have improved

utility, and are available at lower cost. A complete discussion of each

of these program elements l4 is presented in the most recent report to Congress on the EHV program.

In order to help achieve the goal of the EHV RD&D program, the

following five major projects have been established:

o Market Demonstration. The purpose of this project is to

identify, test, and prove EHV market sectors; to develop the

necessary support infrastructure; and to provide cash flow

to manufacturers.

o

0

0

0

Vehicle Evaluation and Improvement. The purpose of this

project is to develop improved vehicles through optimization

of off-the-shelf technology and to aid the rapid commercial

availability of improved vehicles.

Electric Vehicle Commercialization. The purpose of this

project is to induce mass production by 1986 of costcompetitive electric vehicles that will be acceptable to a

broad segment of the market.

Hybrid Vehicle Commercialization. The purpose of this

project is to induce mass production by 1988 of costcompetitive hybrid vehicles with a range capability comparable to internal combustion engine vehicles.

Advanced Vehicle Development. The purpose of this project

is to develop by the early 1990s a general-purpose electric

or hybrid vehicle system, completely competitive with internal combusion engine vehicles, which does not use any

petroleum for operation.

The rationale for these projects is to provide a balance between

‘market pull” and “technology push,” to enhance the demand for EHVs, and

to improve their capability simultaneously. Together they represent an

147
attempt to support the newly-developing EHV industry until it becomes

self -sufficient.

At present, the industry consists of numerous small companies

which are involved in all aspects of EHV design, development, and production, and several large established firms, such as General Motors and

General Electric, which are preparing to produce and market EHVs or

their associated components. With the probable large-scale entry of the

conventional automobile industry into the EHV marketplace, many small

companies which were integrally involved in the early development of the

EHV industry are attempting to ‘link up” with these major producers.

Although almost no Federal funding of EHV development was available before 1976, the program has since received additional emphasis

each year (Table 6.5). Total funding for FY 1976-1980 was over $130

million, 60 percent of which was allocated for FY 1979 and 19800 The

budget emphasis for FY 1980 concentrates on market demonstration projects and research and development, particularly in the area of electric

vehicle commercialization. Nearly 70 percent of the present budget is

directed at these two major efforts.

Since batteries are one of the major cost components of EHVs, and

since they are the limiting factor in EHV range, significant additional

funding has been allocated to improve technology in this area. The

Department of Energy supported advanced battery research and development

even before the EHV RD&D Act of 1976. However, the level of effort has

been increased since that time such that FY 1980 funding is $41 million

(Table 6.6). Although the zinc-chlorine, lithium-aluminum metal sulfide, and sodium-sulfur battery programs are currently receiving the

greatest emphasis, other batteries which also show some promise are

being funded, but to a lesser extent. Increased funding for the most

promising battery R&D projects will most likely be required to achieve

the technological advances necessary to make EHVs cost-competitive and

to provide sufficient range.

Another recent incentive for EV production by the major automobile

manufacturers is the inclusion of EVs in the computation of Corporate

Average Fuel Economy (CAFE). This incentive was initiated as a result

of an amendment to the Chrysler Corporation Loan Guarantee Act of 1979

(PL 96-185). EV fuel economies as high as 185 15miles per gallon have

been proposed for use in the CAFE computation. Even at much lower

fuel EV economy estimates, the differential between fuel economy for

conventional vehicles and EVs appear large enough to provide a significant improvement in CAFE if sufficient EVs are manufactured and sold.

Market demand for fuel efficient automobiles is already such, however,

that the major manufacturers are expected to exceed the current standards through 1985. In this case, EVs are not needed to meet the

standards.

148
Programs

Demonstrations

Incentives

Product Engineering

TABLE 6.5

DOE EHV PROGRAM AND PROJECT FUNDING

Research and Development

Projects

FY 1976-1978, FY 1979,

millions of dollars millions of dollars

5.5 12.1

0.9 2.5

10.9 6.9

35.5 16.0

52.8 37.5

FY 1980,

millions of dollars

Market Demonstration

Vehicle Evaluation and Improvement

Electric Vehicle Commercialization

Hybrid Vehicle Commercialization

Advanced Vehicle Development

12.0

2.5

17.0

7.5

3.5

42.5

Source: 3rd Annual Report to Congress for FY 1979, Electric and Hybrid

Program, US Department of Energy, January 1980; and Mort Cohen, Aerospace

Corporation, Washington, D.C., private communication, June 1980.

1

Includes near-term battery development and technology demonstrations.

149
TABLE 6.6

DOE BATTERY R&D FUNDING

Battery System

Improved Lead-Acid

Nickel-Iron

Nickel-Zinc

Metal-Air

Zinc-Chlorine

Lithium-Aluminum Metal Sulfide

Sodium-Sulfur

Millions of Dollars

FY 1975 FY 1980

2.3 2.7

0 .5 1.5

1.3 2.3

2.2 1.7

0 .5 4 .1

5 .0 6.5

3.2 6.0

15.0 24.8

1

Source: F. George, Electromechanical Power Sources for Electric Highway

Vehicles, Arthur D. Little, Inc. Report C-74692, June 1972; N. P. Yao,

Argonne National Laboratory, private communication; and Kurt Klunder, US

Department of Energy, private communication.

1 The total budget for advanced battery research and development is $41

million. The additional $16.2 million is to be used for test facilities,

special studies, support, and exploratory work on other batteries.

6.5.2 Possible Future Incentives

Various incentives that could be implemented to stimulate the

transition from conventional vehicles to EHVs are described below.

Subsidies and Tax Credits. These are the most common general

incentives that have been used by the Federal Government to stimulate

new technology. They are primarily used to offset the economic disadvantages of a particular technology when the overall benefits to the

nation can be better served. However, they do interfere with the normal

workings of the marketplace. Consequently, special care must be taken

to ensure that the resulting benefits warrant this interference.

150
Direct subsidies to vehicle manufacturers and buyers could be used

to encourage EHV production and purchase. A recent study by SRI International estimated that it could cost $7 to $12 billion by the year 2000

to equalize the initial purchase prices of conventional and electric vehicles. 7

This is based on an expected fleet size of 3.5 million electric vehicles with subsidies of $2000 to $3500 each. Tax credits for

producers and purchasers could provide an incentive similar to those of

subsidies, without extensive cash outlays by the government, but they

would result in foregone tax revenues. A similar tax credit could also

be applied to recharge electricity usage to reduce further the overall

life-cycle costs of EHVs. The potential impacts of these measures have

not yet been studied in detail.

Market Guarantees. Because of uncertainties in the marketplace

regarding consumer acceptance of EHVs, manufacturers must be careful in

initiating an extensive campaign to produce and market these types of

vehicles. However, most experts feel that at least 20 percent of the

light-duty vehicle market must be captured by 2010 in order to justify

the cost of government incentives. In order to help provide a sound

market, and to demonstrate government confidence in the utility of EHVs,

it may be advantageous to guarantee the purchase of EHVs for government

use. The Federal Government currently utilizes many conventional vehicles which could adequately be replaced by EHVs. However, this would

involve at most only about one million passenger vehicles, and would represent less than six-tenths of one percent of the projected light-duty

vehicle population in 1985.

Automotive Fuel Taxes. The appeal and marketability of EHVs might

also be increased through the use of a disincentive such as higher gasoline taxes to discourage gasoline consumption. These taxes would make

EHVs more attractive by reducing operating costs in comparison to conventional vehicles. However, they would result in various side effects

which could require compensatory action by the Federal Government.

Fuel Rationinq. A measure closely related to higher fuel taxes is

fuel rationing. Recent Administration and Congressional actions have

formulated a stand-by gasoline rationing plan as a means of decreasing

consumption if the foreign oil import situation becomes critical. Although rationing is generally considered a “last resort” response, the

prospect of imposition could affect EHV purchases. During World War II,

rationing stabilized the price of gasoline while reducing consumption;

i.e., pump prices were fixed, available quantities of gasoline were

reduced, and consumers were provided with non-transferable coupons. If

this type of rationing were again implemented, it would not provide an

advantage to EHV owners because the price of electricity would continue

to rise, thus reducing the price differential between it and the stabilized gasoline price. In this case, consumers would be better off to

purchase an inexpensive, fuel-efficient conventional automobile which

would not have the range restrictions of an electric, Only if rationing

151
were to result in a net increase in the effective price of gasoline,

thus increasing the differential between gasoline and electricity, would

it provide an incentive to purchase an EHV. In this case, coupons would

be transferable, resulting in an effective gasoline price consisting of

the cost of the gasoline itself and the cost of a coupon. These coupons

would be purchased from individuals who chose to sell them rather than

consume their allocated share of gasoline. As rationing became more and

more stringent, a larger number of consumers would enter the market to

purchase coupons, further increasing prices. The net effect would be

similar to increased levels of gasoline taxation.

Vehicle-Sharing Schemes. Various vehicle-sharing schemes have

been considered in recent years to help eliminate the disadvantages of

electric vehicles with regard to long-distance travel. For example,

electric vehicle dealers could guarantee buyers limited use of a larger

conventional vehicle as part of the purchase agreement. These conventional vehicles could be owned by the dealers and be provided to purchasers of electric vehicles by appointment to use for vacations, weekend trips, transporting large loads, etc. It is not clear exactly how

these schemes could best be employed, or whether they would remain desirable if hybrids enter the marketplace.

16 A study performed by Mathtech in 1977 examined the effects of a

variety of EHV incentives The study first defined a base case without

incentives, and then measured the result of each potential incentive in

relation to this base case (Table 6.7). The study estimated that less

than 40,000 electric vehicles would be sold in 1995 without the use of

incentives. Purchase price subsidies showed the greatest promise: a

$3000 subsidy per vehicle was projected to boost estimated sales to over

850,000 in 1995. An operating subsidy of one-third of most life-cycle

costs also showed great promise, boosting sales over the 450,000 mark.

Although a gasoline tax of 50 cents per gallon could also increase EV

sales, it would not be as effective as either of the first two incentives. The study found that the use of multiple incentives would provide the greatest increase in EHV purchases. In the case of a 50-cent

per gallon gasoline tax and a one-third operating subsidy, electric

vehicle sales in 1995 were projected to exceed 1,200,000.

Another8study of incentives was performed by Arthur D. Little,

Incorporated. The study projected sales of various types of vehicles

for 1983, including both electric and hybrid vehicles (Table 6.8). The

study estimated that from two to seven times as many hybrids as electrics would be sold in 1983, depending upon the incentives used. The

use of a $2000 subsidy and a special warranty was projected to result in

sales of over 800,000 in 1983.

Current estimates by General Motors are on the order of 200,000 to

300,000 EHVs per year by the late 1980s, presumably with no incentives.

These estimates differ substantially from the base cases for the

Mathtech and A. D. Little studies.

152
TABLE 6.7

PROJECTION OF ANNUAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES UNDER

ALTERNATIVE POLICIES

Incentives

Base Case (no incentives)

$300 Purchase Subsidy

$1000 Purchase Subsidy

$3000 Purchase Subsidy

Off-Peak Electricity

Pricing

50-cent Gas Tax

10-cent Gas Tax

Doubling of Range

Operating Subsidy of

one-third of most lifecycle costs

Combination of 50-cent

Gas Tax and Doubling of

Range

Combination of 50-cent

Gas Tax and Operating

Subsidy

1985

Number

20,300

38,000

59,600

503,000

27,100

51,900

25,300

55,900

240,100

144,800

601,700

Percent

Increase

—-

38

194

2378

33

156

25

175

108

613

2860

1995

Number

36,900

50,900

107,400

867,800

49,900

102,400

45,500

114,200

465,500

313,400

1,221,100

Percent

Increase

--

38

191

2252

35

178

23

209

1161

749

3209

Source: C. Upton and C. Agnew, An Analysis of Federal Incentives to

Stimulate Consumer Acceptance of Electric Vehicles, Mathtech, September

1977.

153
TABLE 6.8

ESTIMATED SALES OF EHVs TO CONSUMERS IN 19831

Incentive 2

Base Case (no incentives)

Special Warranty

Subsidy of $20003

Subsidy and Warranty

Vehicle Sales, thousands

Electric Hybrid

37 984

73 514

257 440

477 807

Source: Anton S. Morton, Incentives and Acceptance of Electric, Hybrid

and Other Alternative Vehicles, Arthur D. Little, Inc., November 1978.

1

Assumes total new car sales of 10 million. Estimates total of 3.7

million sold to potential market for EHVs (multiple-car households

which own at least one compact or subcompact car and live in warm or

temperate climates.

2

Gasoline at $1 per gallon.

3

1978 dollars

154
REFERENCES FOR SECTION 6

10

2.

30

4.

50

60

7.

8.

9.

100

11.

12.

13.

D. B. Shonka, cd., Transportation Energy Conservation Data Book,

Edition 3, ORNL-5493 Special, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,

Tennessee, February 1979.

Automotive News, March 17, 1980.

W. Hamilton, Projected Characteristics of Light Electric Trucks,

General Research Corporation IM-2201, l!ay 1979.

W. Hamilton, Electric Automobiles, McGraw-Hill Book Company, new

York, 1980.

G. E. Ft?arson, “Care and Feeding of 4000 Electric ‘llmcks,”

Proceedings, Third International Electric Vehicle Symposium,

Electric Vehicle @uncil, New York, February 1974.

J. R. Wagner and R. S. Davis, ‘Fleet Operator Study, Interim

Briefing,w

Brookhaven National Laboratory, @ton, New York, 14

September 1978.

B. Scott-Walton et al., Electric Vehicles in America’s Future: An

Assessment of Prospects and Impacts, SRI International, Menlo

park, California, January 1980.

A. S. Morton et al., Incentives and Acceptance of Electric,

Hybrid, and Other Alternative Vehicles, Arthur D. Little, Inc.,

Cambridge, Mass., November 1978.

K.Train, ‘The ~tential Demand for Non-Gasoline-Powered Vehicles,” Cambridge Systematic, Inc., Cambridge, Mass., 13 September

lg78 (revised 26 October 1978)0

The Impact of Electric Passenger Automobiles on Utility System

Loads, EPRI EA-623, Electric ~wer Research Institute, Menlo Park,

California, July 1978.

S. Beggs et al., “Assessing the ~tential Demand for Electric

Cars,” presented at the EPRI Workshop on the Choice and Utilization of Energy Using Ilmables, Boston, November 1-2, 1979.

California Marginal Cost Pricing Project: A First Year Report to

DOE, California Energy Commission, September 1979.

R. Kirk and P. Davis, A View of the Future Potential of Electric

and Hybrid Vehicles, Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Rrogram, US

Department of Energy, 25 March 1980.

155
14.

15.

16.

The Third Annual Report to Congress for FY 1979, Electric and

Hybrid Vehicle Program, US Department of Energy, January 1980.

‘EPA Figures Electric Equivalent to 185 mpg for Computing CAFE,”

Automotive News, 26 May 1980.

C. I@ton and C. Agnew, An Analysis of Federal Incentives to

Stimulate Consumer Acceptance of Electric Vehicles, Mathtec, Inc.,

September 1977.

156
7 BENEFITS AND COSTS, MONETARY AND NON-MONETARY

7.1 SUMMARY

No one knows with any degree of certainty how many EHVs will be

sold in the 1985-2010 time frame. It is clear, however, that EHVs can

provide various benefits to the nation and the user, given a willingness

to accept the associated costs. Though any attempt to estimate benefits

and costs must rely on an arbitrary assumption of EHV sales, it is clear

that at any sales level, EHVs can save petroleum. It is also clear that

EHVs initially will be more expensive than comparable conventional vehicles, and that electric vehicles will provide the user with substantially less mobility .

The benefits and costs of EHVs can generally be divided into five

major categories: energy, the environment, the economy, resources, and

transportation. In terms of energy, the primary benefits of using EHVs

would be a reduction of petroleum consumption and a lessening of US dependence on foreign oil. For example, in the year 2010, electrification

of 20 percent of light-duty vehicle travel would reduce automotive petroleum consumption by nearly 18 percent (Fig. 7. 1). Furthermore, if

EHVs were utilized first in selected regions, up to 70 percent of all

light-duty vehicular travel could be electrified without using any

petroleum to generate recharge electricity. This would result in automotive petroleum savings of about 65 percent. In this case, most of the

electricity would be derived from coal and nuclear power plants during

otherwise idle off-peak periods. With market penetrations of less than

20 percent, savings would be proportionately smaller.

The primary environmental impacts from the use of EHVs would be an

improvement in national air quality and a reduction in urban traffic

noise. Since EHVs do not produce emissions like conventional internal

combustion engines (when operating in the electric mode), the contribution of automobiles to air pollution would be reduced. However, the

generation of recharge electricity through the use of fossil fuels would

result in increased sulfur-oxide emissions which would partially offset

this improvement. To mitigate this problem, the use of EHVs could be

encouraged in those areas where electric generation is least dependent

on fossil fuels. Because they are inherently quieter than conventional

vehicles, the use of EHVs could also be expected to result in desirable

reductions in traffic noise, the major noise problem in urban areas.

The higher prices of EHVs would substantially impact motorists.

Aside from this, however, the widespread use of EHVs would have little

economic impact in the United States. Only about 3 percent of US jobs

would be affected by a complete switch to EHVs. Even if such a transition were completed in only two or three decades, the annual changes

would be very small. Total employment in manufacturing, selling, and

servicing automobiles would be increased. The overall net change in

157
TOTAL PETROLEUM

USED FOR ALL

- PETROLEUM USED

DIRECTLY TO POWER

CONVENTIONAL AND

HYBRID VEHICLES

PETROLEUM USED TO GENERATE

- RECHARGE ELECTRICITY FOR

ELECTRIC AND HYBRID

VEHICLES

I

o 20 40 60 80

ELECTRIFICATION OF LIGHT-DUTY

VEHICULAR TRAVEL, percent

Source: Recharge Capacity Projection System (RECAPS), GeneraI Research Corporation

Assumptions: The RECAPS model schedules the use of nuclear, coal, and

hydroelectric facilities before oil and gas facilities, and base-load facilities before

intermediate and peaking facilities to minimize operating costs. Recharging is

controlled to maximize the use of off-peak power available during late night and

early morning hours when demand is lowest. The model makes use of capacity

and demand projections developed by the electric utility companies in 1979.

Energy required was assumed to be 0.5 kilowatt-hours per mile at the charging

outlet This value reflects a mix of cars and light-duty trucks to electrify 20 percent

of light-duty vehicular travel in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 (Table 6.1). Vehicles were

assumed to be distributed uniformly across the United States based on population. They were also assumed to travel an average of 10,000 miles per year. Electrical distribution system efficiency was assumed to be 90 percent.

Figure 7.1 Petroleum Use with Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in 2010

158
employment and payrolls would be insignificant, amounting to about a

one-percent increase even in the extreme case of a complete shift to

EHVs. Though some battery materials might be imported, their costs

would be offset by savings on imported petroleum.

The widespread use of EHVs would considerably increase the demand

for materials used in batteries. However, electrifying 20 percent of

the personal cars in the United States by 2010 would probably create no

serious shortages of materials. In the absence of interruptions of imports, the increase in the demand for battery materials caused by the

production of EHVs is unlikely to precipitate price increases for these

materials in the long run, except for lithium, cobalt, and nickel. Even

then, increases are not expected to exceed 20 percent if suppliers are

given sufficient lead time (perhaps ten years) to plan an orderly expansion of exploration activities and production facilities. Although the

identified reserves of battery materials are no more abundant than those

of petroleum for meeting world demand through 2010, new discoveries are

likely to increase the identified reserves of battery materials as demand increases. Uncertainties are greatest for lithium, partly because

it may also be in great demand for use in fusion power plants. However,

alternative future batteries based on such abundant materials as sodium,

sulfur, and chlorine could effectively eliminate problems of inadequate

resources.

Owners of EHVs would have the advantage of a vehicle which does

not depend on petroleum as a primary fuel. They would also have the

convenience of at-home recharging. Their vehicles would operate more

quietly and might be more reliable and maintainable than conventional

vehicles. The primary disadvantage to the hybrid vehicle owner primarily would be higher purchase price, particularly in the near term.

Overall life-cycle costs (at 1980 gasoline and electricity prices) would

be higher in the near term, but might become 8 to 11 percent lower than

those of conventional vehicles if advanced EHVs become available.

Owners of electric vehicles would not only pay more, but would also be

limited to ranges of less than 100-150 miles between recharges.

There are major uncertainties surrounding the future of EHVs.

They include the extent to which expected improvements in battery

technology can be realized, the actual level of market penetration that

EHVs can achieve, the future growth and utilization of the electric

utility industry, and the extent to which improvements in conventional

vehicles reduce the potential advantages of EHVs.

7.2 ENERGY

The use of EHVs to electrify 20 percent of light-duty vehicular

travel would result in a significant reduction in petroleum consumption.

In the year 2010, automobile petroleum use would be cut by 16 to 20 percent, saving approximately 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day, or 4

159
percent of projected future national petroleum consumption. Even greater petroleum savings could be achieved if EHVs were selectively implemented in those regions which would use little or no petroleum to generate recharge energy. However, the national use of coal and nuclear

fuels would be increased correspondingly as electric utilities generated

recharge electricity during otherwise idle off-peak periods.

The fuel economy of future conventional vehicles and the fleet

size determine vehicular petroleum consumption without EHVs. Fuel

economy assumptions used in this report for passenger and light trucks

range from 14.3 miles per gallon in 1980 to about 40 miles per gallon in

2010 (Table 7.1). Based on these assumptions, energy required from

petroleum used directly as fuel in conventional automobiles would be

approximately 14 quadrillion BTUS (quads) in 1980, 10 quads in 1990, 7.5

quads in 2000, and 6 quads in 2010 (equivalent to 6.6, 4.7, 3.5, and 2.8

million barrels of oil per day) . As these figures show, increases in

fuel economy in the 1980-2010 time frame might reduce petroleum consumption of automobiles by more than 50 percent, even without the use of

EHVs.

Based on the expected electricity and gasoline use for electric,

hybrid, and comparably-constructed conventional cars, it is possible to

determine the equivalent fuel economies for the simple case where all

energy for vehicle operation is derived from either petroleum or coal

(Table 7.2). In the case of petroleum, near-term electric and hybrid

cars would provide from 6 to 20 percent less fuel economy than comparable conventional cars. However, advanced electrics and hybrids would

provide a 4 to 18 percent improvement over conventional cars. In other

words, if petroleum were the sole fuel used to power automobiles, only

the advanced electric and hybrid cars would be more fuel-efficient than

conventional vehicles, an advantage that could be eliminated if ICE

vehicles attain fuel economy higher than assumed here.

In the case of coal, the equivalent fuel economies of electric and

hybrid cars are quite high, largely because of the inefficiency of synthesizing gasoline from coal. In fact, both near-term and advanced EHVs

would be more fuel-efficient than the assumed conventional vehicles.

Near-term electrics and hybrids would provide the equivalent of a 33 to

75 percent increase in fuel economy, and advanced vehicles would provide

an 80 to 105 percent advantage.

In practice, of course, neither coal nor oil alone would be used

as energy sources for EHVs. Instead, electric utilities would use those

fuels and facilities which are most cost-effective and available. In

general, most recharge energy would come from a mix of coal, nuclear,

and petroleum fuels which would vary from utility to utility, and from

hour to hour during the day. If recharging occurred during otherwise

idle, off-peak hours in 2010, for example, the use of oil in generating

recharge electricity would drop to about 7 percent and coal would become

160
L1

aJ

d

●

JJ (4Y

$-i

u

a)

%

G

● I-I

m

161
TABLE 7.2

SUMMARY OF FUEL USE AND EQUIVALENT FUEL ECONOMY OF

ELECTRIC, HYBRID, AND CONVENTIONAL FOUR-PASSENGER SUBCOMPACT CARS

Vehicle

Electric

Near-Term:

Pb-acid

Ni-Fe

Ni-Zn

Zn-C12

Advanced:

Zn-C12

Li-MS

Hybrid

Equivalent Fuel

Economy Resource

Basic Fuel Use Utilization, mpgl

Electricity, Gasoline,

kWh per mile mpg Oil Coal

0.40

0.44

0.38

0.45

0.31

0.30

- -

- -

- -

- -

- -

- -

29.0 50.0

26.0 45.0

30.0 53.0

26.0 44.0

37.0 64.0

38.0 67.0

Near-Term:

Pb-acid 0.38 31.0 31.0 53.0

Ni-Zn 0.37 34.0 33.0 58.0

Advanced:

Li-MS 0.27 45.0 42.0 73.0

Conventional (ICE)2

Near-Term -- 33.0 33.0 33.0

Advanced -- 35.6 35.6 35.6

Source: Tables 3.5, 3.7, 4.1, and 4.4 of this report.

Assumptions: See assumptions for each table listed above.

1

Urban fuel economies are presented which are about 87 percent of composite

fuel economy.

2

Assumes that conventional vehicles are comparable to EHVs, i.e., same basic

construction techniques and materials are used in all vehicles, with

engine efficiencies of the 1980’s.

162
the dominant fuel, providing nearly 65 percent of all recharge energy.

Nuclear power would be used to satisfy approximately 25 percent of the

load (Fig. 7.2).

The fact that electrics do not use gasoline, hybrids use little

gasoline, and electric recharge energy could be generated using little

petroleum, provides the basis for estimating reduced petroleum consumption through the use of EHVs. If EHVs were used uniformly throughout

the United States to electrify 20 percent of light-duty vehicular

travel, petroleum used for automobiles would be reduced by 14 to 18 percent over the 1980-2010 time frame (Fig. 7.3).1 However, if EHVs were

selectively encouraged in those areas of the country where little or no

petroleum would be required to generate recharge energy, a savings of up

to 20 percent would result. The Mid-Atlantic, East Central, Southeast,

Mid-America, and Mid-Continent regions would be best, but the Southwest

and Texas regions also show some potential. The Northeast and West

regions, due to their dominant use of oil-fired power plants, would be

much less suitable on the whole. However, even in these areas, careful

analysis of the particular fuel mixes used to generate power for

selected cities could identify some with potential for saving petroleum.

Other considerations such as air quality, terrain, weather, etc., would

also enter into the selection of suitable areas for EHV use.

It would be possible to save even more petroleum if EHV market

penetration were higher. At 80-percent electrification of light-duty

vehicular travel, petroleum use by automobiles could be reduced by more

than 70 percent in the year 2010. If EHVs were first utilized in selected regions, Up to 60 percent of light-duty vehicular travel could be

electrified with virtually no use of petroleum for generating recharge

energy by the year 2000, and up to 70 percent by the year 2010.

The impacts of 20-percent electrification of light-duty vehicular

travel on overall national energy use would also be significant (Table

7.3): a reduction of 3.8 percent in 1990 or 2000 and 4.2 percent in

20100 Though these percentages are small, they represent significant

absolute savings of petroleum, on 660,000 to 520,000 barrels per day.

Although overall national energy use would increase between 1980 and

2010, and oil consumption would be reduced in the absence of EVHs because of other actions, EHV use would result in an even greater shift

from petroleum to other sources of energy.

7*3 ENVIRONMENT

There would be little change in air pollution associated with 20-

percent electrification of light-duty vehicular travel. Although the

use of EHVs would result in a reduction in the amount of automobile

emissions, there would be an increase in power plant emissions. The net

effect would be only a slight improvement in overall national air quality. However, there would be larger regional variations that would

163
OIL

1 J

o 1980 1990 2000 2010

YEAR

Source: Recharge Capacity Projection System (RECAPS), General Research Corporation

Assumptions: The RECAPS model schedules the use of nuclear, coal, and

hydroelectric facilities before oil and gas facilities, and base-load facilities before

intermediate and peaking facilities to minimize operating costs. Recharging is

controlled to maximize the use of off-peak power available during late night and

early morning hours when demand is lowest. The model makes use of capacity

and demand projections developed by the electric utility companies in 1979.

Energy required was assumed to be 0.5 kilowatt-hours per mile at the charging

outlet This value reflects a mix of cars and light-duty trucks to electrify 20 percent

of light-duty vehicular travel in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 (Table 6.1). Vehicles were

assumed to be distributed uniformly across the Unlited States based on population. They were also assumed to travel an average of 10,000 miles per year. Electrical distribution system efficiency was assumed to be 90 percent.

Figure 7.2 Projected Use of Fuel for 20 Percent Electrification of

Light-Duty Vehicular Travel

164
IMPLEMENTATION OF EHVs UNIFORMLY

L

THROUGHOUT THE NATION

——— IMPLEMENTATION OF EHVs FIRST

IN THOSE REGIONS WHICH USE

LITTLE OR NO PETROLEUM FOR

GENERATING RECHARGE ENERGY

PETROLEUM USED ‘

DIRECTLY TO POWER

o 20 40 60 80

ELECTRIFICATION OF LIGHT-DUTY

VEHICULAR TRAVEL, percent

1980

- o 20 40 60 80

10

o 20 40 60 80

ELECTRIFICATION OF LIGHT-DUTY

VEHICULAR TRAVEL, percent

1990

TOTAL PETROLEUM USED

FOR ALL VEHICLES

CONVENTIONAL AND

HYBRID VEHICLES

PETROLEUM USED TO GENERATE

RECHARGE ELECTRICITY FOR

ELECTRIC AND HYBRID

VEHICLES

o 20 40 60 80

ELECTRIFICATION OF LIGHT DUTY ELECTRIFICATION OF LIGHT DUTY

VEHICULAR TRAVEL percent VEHICULAR TRAVEL percent

2000 2010

Source: Recharge Capacity Projection System (RECAPS), General Research Corporation

Assumptions: The RECAPS model schedules the use of nuclear, coal, and hydroelectric facilities before 011 and gas facilities, and base-load facilities

before intermediate and peaking facilities to minimize operating costs. Recharging IS controlled to maximize the use of off-peak power available during

late night and early morning hours when demand is lowest. The model makes use of capacity and demand projections developed by the electric utility

companies in 1979. Energy required was assumed to be 0.5 kilowatt-hours Per mile at the charging Outlet This value reflects a mix of cars and Iight-duty

trucks to electrify 20 Percent of light-duty vehicular travel in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 (Table 6.1), Vehicles were assumed to be distributed uniformly

across the Unlited States based on population. They were also assumed to travel an average of 10,000 miles per year. Electrical distribution system efficiency was assumed to be 90 percent. The results have been adjusted to account for power plant efficiency of 35 percent, refinery efficiency of 93 per.

cent, and ancillary energy for oil recovery and transport of 34 percent

Figure 7.3 Petroleum Use by Electric, Hybrid, and Conventional Vehicles

165
.

m

m

al

● A

JJ

H “

H

. .

166
provide an opportunity to encourage the use of EHVs selectively where

they could have the greatest positive effect on air quality. The level

of expected improvement in air quality would decline somewhat between

1980 and 2010 as conventional vehicles become cleaner, thus limiting the

extent to which EHVs could improve future air quality.

Other environmental effects of EHV use are reduced urban traffic

noise, effects on public health and safety (resulting primarily from the

increased use of coal-fired and nuclear power plants) , thermal pollution

from power plants, and reduced dumping of waste crankcase oil. The use

of EHVs would reduce the urban traffic noise problem because these vehicles are inherently quieter to operate than conventional vehicles, particularly when compared to those with small, high-speed ICE engines or

diesels. The other areas of concern would be little affected by 20-

percent electrification of light-duty vehicular travel, but are mentioned here because they have been of recent public concern. Though

their importance is difficult to estimate, especially in the case of

risks from nuclear reactors, fuels, and wastes, all appear to be relatively minor considerations in relation to EHVs.

7.3.1 Air Quality

The amount of pollution produced by automobiles and electric

utilities would change as a result of the widespread use of EHVs. Since

EHVs do not emit pollutants when operating in the electric mode, except

for small amounts of particulate due to tire wear, automobile emissions

would be reduced in proportion to EHV miles driven. Power plant emissions, on the other hand, would increase to the extent that fossil fuels

were used to generate the additional electricity needed for recharging.

Analysis of the projected contributions of conventional automobiles and

power plants to emissions between 1980 and 2010, in the absence of EHVs,

shows the effect of the Clean Air Act of 1970 and its amendments (Table

7.4). Percent contributions of both automobiles and power plants are

dropping. If the scheduled regulations are implemented and met in time,

nearly 90 percent of all automobile emissions will be eliminated by

1985. Additional Clean Air Act requirements will also result in improved control of power plant emissions. These tend to limit the extent

to which EHVs can improve overall national air quality, no matter how

many are used to replace conventional vehicles. However, even at 20-

percent electrification of light-duty vehicular travel, sufficient

regional variation exists to warrant consideration of selectively encouraging EHV use in those areas where the greatest benefit could be

achieved.

The regional variation in air quality resulting from the use of

EHVs depends on the location of the power plants that serve the region,

the fuels used to generate recharge electricity, the vehicle miles

driven in electric mode, and to some extent, the characteristics of the

region, including local emission regulations and vehicle mixes. For

example, the population-weighted average of composite pollution indicators for the 24 largest air-quality control regions (AQCRs) in the

167
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a)

.

o

u

u

w

o

o

u

‘m

o

u l-l0

168
United States in 2000, given 20-percent electrification of light-duty

vehicular travel, shows a 2.4 percent improvement (Table 7.5). However,

two AQCRs-- San Francisco and San Diego--would experience more than a 5-

percent improvement in air quality, and another eight--Boston, Seattle,

Denver, Los Angeles, Miami, Washington, D.C., Buffalo, and Dallas--would

experience an improvement of more than 3 percent. On the other end of

the spectrum, overall air quality would decrease if EHVs were used in

Pittsburgh. This is because those power plants required to generate

recharge energy are primarily located in the urban area itself. Furthermore, these plants are primarily coal-fired, thus increasing the

urban sulfur-dioxide problem,

To set the impact of EHVs on air quality in perspective, it is

first necessary to understand the expected trends of future air quality

in the absence of EHVs (Fig. 7.4). In general, the main air pollution

problems through the year 2010 are projected to be total hydrocarbons

and total suspended particulate, which will increase 35 and 16 percent,

respectively, Both are now, and will continue to be, significantly

above the 1975 standard. On the other hand, new federal standards proposed in 1978 for sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and carbon monoxide

can be expected to control these pollutants. Although sulfur oxides and

nitrogen oxides will increase 6 percent and 14 percent, respectively,

they will continue to be below the standard. Carbon monoxide will be

reduced by 44 percent, but will still be slightly above the standard.

All these projections are based on 1978 state implementation plans

(SIPS), and will change as these plans are updated and new regulations

are promulgated.

The national impact on air quality of 20-percent electrification

of light-duty vehicular travel will result in a rise in sulfur oxides

and decreases in nitrogen oxides, total hydrocarbons, and carbon monoxide (Fig. 7.5). Total suspended particulate will be little affected.

Sulfur oxides in 1980 would be increased by about 3.5 percent, but would

decrease to less than one percent above the 2010 level over the next 30

years. Nitrogen oxides would be reduced by 1 to 2 percent over the

1980-2010 time frame. Total hydrocarbons would be reduced by 5 percent

in 1980, but would be about 2 percent under expected baseline levels in

2010. Carbon monoxide initially would drop by 10 percent in 1980, but

would stabilize at over 6 percent in 2010. This general trend of significant initial impact, tapering off to modest levels by 2010, is primarily due to the fact that federal standards for both conventional automobiles and power plants will tend to reduce the potential effect of EHVs

on national air quality.

7.3.2 Urban Traffic Noise

The importance of noise pollution and its control have been

recognized in recent years in legislation at all levels of government.

In particular, the Federal Noise Control Act of 1973 established as a

national policy the control of emissions of noise that are detrimental

169
TABLE 7.5

CHANGE IN THE SEAS COMPOSITE POLLUTION INDICATOR

WITH 20 PERCENT ELECTRIFICATION OF LIGHT-DUTY VEHICULAR TRAVEL

Decrease in Pollution Indicator

Resulting from Use of EHVs, percent

Air Quality Control Region 2000

San Francisco

San Diego

Boston

Seattle

Denver

Los Angeles

Miami

Washington, D.C.

Buffalo

Dallas

New York

Atlanta

Detroit

St. Louis

Philadelphia

Minneapolis-St. Paul

Baltimore

Chicago

Cleveland

Milwaukee

Kansas City

Houston

Cincinnati

Pittsburgh

5.5

5.4

4.1

3.8

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.3

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.2

0.9

-1.6

Population-Weighted Average 2.4

Source: Regional Emission Projection System (REPS), General Research Corporation; and Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS), originally

developed by several private corporations for EPA and now under the control

of the Environment Division of DOE.

Assumptions: Industrial growth projections were for 1977, and were obtained

from the Department of Commerce OBERS model. Base year emissions data were

for 1975, and were obtained from the National Emission Data System (NEDS).

Electric utility growth projections were based on the Recharge Capacity Projection System (RECAPS) output generated both with and without EHV use.

Emission and air quality control levels were based on new source performance

standards proposed in 1978. Emissions from facilities built prior to

1978 were assumed to be controlled to the level defined in NEDS. These

projections, therefore, do not fully reflect the effect of the 1977

Amendments to the Clean Air Act which require that states submit revised

State Implementation Plans (SIPS) which assure that future air quality

will satisfy the national primary standard. Analysis was based on the 24

most populated air quality control regions (AQCRs) in the United States.

The results reflect population-weighted averages. The specific pollution

indicators were calculated using a formula developed for SEAS which weights

each major pollutant type according to impact on human health to arrive at

a single composite figure.

170
TSP –

S ox –

N OX –

THC –

co –

THC 

TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICULATE

SULFUR OXIDES

NITROGEN OXIDES

TOTAL HYDROCARBONS

CARBON MONOXIDE THC

NOX

NOX

S Ox SOx

1980 1990 2000 2010

YEAR

Source: Regional Emissions Projection System (REPS), General Research Corporation

Assumptions: Industrial growth projections were for 1977, and were obtained from

the Department of Commerce OBERS model. Base year emissions data were for

1975, and were obtained from the National Emission Data System (NEDS). Electric

utility growth projections were based on the Recharge Capacity Projection System

(RECAPS) output generated both with and without EHV use. Emission and air

quality control levels were based on new source performance standards proposed

or promulgated in 1978. Analysis was based on the 24 most populated air quality

control regions (AQCRs) in the United States. The results reflect populationweighted averages.

Figure 7.4 Air Quality Projections Without EHVs

171
SOx

T S P

NOX

NOX

THC

THC 

CO

TSP –

S Ox –

N OX –

THC –

co –

TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICULATE

SULFUR OXIDES

NITROGEN OXIDES

TOTAL HYDROCARBONS

CARBON MONOXIDE

1980 1990 2000 2010

YEAR

Source: Regional Emissions Projection System (REPS), General Research

poration

Assumptions: Industrial growth projections were for 1977, and were obtained

Corfrom

the Department of Commerce OBERS model. Base year emissions data were for

1975, and were obtained from the National Emission Data System (NEDS). Electric

utility growth projections were based on the Recharge Capacity Projection System

(RECAPS) output generated both with and without EHV use. Emission and air

quality control levels were based on new source performance standards proposed

or promulgated in 1978. Analysis was based on the 24 most populated air quality

control regions (AQCRs) in the United States. The results reflect populationweighted averages.

Figure 7.5 Percent Change in Air Quality with 20 Percent

Electrification of Light-Duty Vehicular Travel

172
to the human environment, particularly those resulting from the use of

transportation vehicles.3 As a result, various regulations have been

established to reduce truck, bus, and motorcycle noise (Table 7.6).

Regulations have not yet been established for automobiles. Although

automobiles account for more than 90 percent of all urban traffic, their

contribution to total urban traffic noise in the mid-1970s was little

more than half. Consequently, a reduction in automobile noise would

have little noticeable impact unless also accompanied by a reduction in

truck, bus, and motorcycle noise.

It is interesting to note that the recent trend toward smaller,

more fuel-efficient vehicles may increase the contribution of automobiles to the overall noise problem. Automobiles powered by fourcylinder gasoline and diesel engines produce from 3 to 5 dB(A) more

noise than conventional V-8 and six-cylinder engines.

Different levels of urban traffic noise affect different numbers

of people (Table 7.7). It is estimated that nearly 95 million people

are subjected to noise levels which begin to affect intelligibility of

speech (55 dB day-night equivalent sound level) . Although only slightly

more than one million people are subjected to relatively high noise

levels (75 dB), the resulting impacts can be much worse, sometimes

affecting human behavior. In fact, at sound levels above 85 dB, permanent hearing damage can occur if exposure is over a long period.

Electric propulsion of automobiles is inherently quiet. When

operating in the electric mode, EHVs do not use an engine, radiator fan,

air intake, or exhaust, all of which are major noise producers in a

conventional car. The electric motor of the EHV is typically much

quieter. A recent test by the Japanese government comparing electric

and conventional economy cars found electrics to be 15-25 percent quieter when stopped, accelerating, and passing (Fig. 7.6).5 Even when

traveling at constant speed, the electrics were about 5 percent quieter.

Consequently, desirable reductions in traffic noise are likely

with the widespread use of EHVs. Even though conventional cars may be

made considerably quieter in the future, substitution of EHVs could re–

duce the future level of noise impact substantially (Fig. 7.7).6 After

current regulations have had their effects on truck, bus, and motorcycle

noise, the overall noise impact would be reduced to 57 percent of the

1975 level, if conventional autos grow no noisier. EHV use could reduce

urban traffic noise impact to as little as 27 percent of the 1975 level

(at 100 percent EHV market penetration).

7.3.3 Health and Safety

Large-scale use of EHVs might affect public health and safety because of increased generation of electric power, modifications in vehicular design and capability, and changes in industrial working conditions, primarily in the battery manufacturing industry. However, the

173
r+

w

0

(n

0

0

-1

u

0

G

CIY

174
ESTIMATED

At or Above Outdoor

TABLE 7.7

NUMBER OF PEOPLE SUBJECTED TO

URBAN TRAFFIC NOISE

Day–Night Equivalent

Sound Level, (dBl

People, millions

55 93.4

60 5900

65 24.3

70 6.9

75 1.3

Source: “Air Quality, Noise, and Health,” Report of a Panel of

the Interagency Task Force on Motor Vehicle Goals Beyond

1980, US Department of Transportation TAD-443.1, March

1976. Table 6-4.

1

The customary measure of the impact of urban traffic noise is computed from outdoor day-night equivalent sound levels. The computation combines the level of traffic noise with the number of people

exposed at that level. It assumes that adverse effects of noise

begin at a specific criterion, 55 dB, and that they reach a 100-

percent level at 75 dB. At day-night equivalent sound levels of

55 dB outdoors, indoor levels may be near 45 dB, allowing 100 percent intelligibility for all types of speech. After a 20-dB

increase above this level, intelligibility begins to drop very

rapidly with further increases, supporting the assumption that few

people would be adversely impacted at 55 dB, while at 75 dB, virtually everybody would be adversely affected.

175
90

80

70

60

50

LIGHT AND MIDGET CARS

I I I I

GASOLINE ENGINE MOTOR

ELECTRIC VEHICLE

STOP PASSING

ACCELERATION

START STEADY

ACCELERATION TRAVELING

Source: Research and Development of Electric Vehicles in Japan, Agency of Industrial Science and Technology, Ministry of International Trade & Industry and

Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. 1977.

1 Noise levels are stated in phons, a Unit Of nOiSe measurement ‘hich ‘s

technically different, but similar to, the dB(A) measure predominantly used in the

us.

Figure 7.6 Measured Noise of Japanese Test Cars

176
100

80

60

40

20

0

ELECTRIFICATION OF LIGHT-DUTY

VEHICULAR TRAVEL

20 40 60 80

WITH IMPROVED

CONVENTIONAL CARS

AFTER REDUCTION OF TRUCK,

. BUS, AND MOTORCYCLE NOISE

I I I I 1

o 2 4 6 8 10

REDUCTION IN MEDIAN AUTOMOTIVE PASSBY NOISE, dB

Source: W. Hamilton, Electric Automobiles, McGraw-Hill Book Company,

York, 1979.

New

Assumptions: Noise standards for trucks, buses, and motorcycles are assumed to

be in effect. Noise from sources other than transportation vehicles are assumed to

remain constant. Data used to prepare this figure are for 1975. Improved conventional cars are expected to be about 3 dB quieter than present conventional cars.

Electric cars are assumed to be 3.3 dB quieter than improved conventional cars.

Figure 7.7 Effects of Electric Cars on Urban Auto Noise and

Traffic Noise Impact

177
impact is expected to be small at 20-percent electrification of lightduty vehicular travel.

The major factor to be considered is the effect of increased

generation of electric power to recharge EHVs. If EHVs were recharged

during off-peak hours, about 0.5 to 0.6 quadrillion additional BTUs

would be required to electrify 20 percent of light-duty vehicular travel

each year in the 1980-2010 time frame. However, since annual demand

without EHVS is projected to increase over the same period, the contribution of EHVs to total electricity demand will decrease each year. In

1990,for example, the percentage of total demand attributed to EHVS

would be 4.5 percent, but would drop to 2. 1 percent by 2010.

Although it is not expected that 20-percent electrification of

light-duty vehicular travel would have much impact on public health and

safety, expert opinion on the impact of any increase in power generation

is divided, and much research in this area is currently being conducted.

Consequently, a brief discussion of the major issues is presented here.

The detrimental effects of power plants on public health and safety have been repeatedly analyzed in recent years, largely because of the

fierce public debate over the desirability of nuclear power.7 The analyses show clearly that nuclear plants are not alone in presenting risks

to health and safety; coal plants are also detrimental, primarily due to

7.3.1). 8,

9

,

10 

increased SO While some parts of X emissions (see Sec.

these analyses are relatively secure, other very important parts require

assumptions which are little more than guesswork. It has therefore been

impossible to determine conclusively whether nuclear plants are preferable to coal plants. It is clear, however, that use of EHVs would increase whatever the problems of nuclear and coal plants may be, even if

only slightly.

Overall, there seems little question that by requiring added generation of electricity, EHVs could detract slightly from public health

and safety. The effects, however, will surely be far less than proportionate to the extra electric energy required by EHVs. Since no additional facilities would be required, other than those already planned to

satisfy normal future demand, EHVs need not cause an increase in the

number of nuclear reactors subject to accidents. Moreover, where diversion of plutonium and sabotage of reactors are the serious risks, they

may not be increased significantly by EHVs. If reactors are already

numerous and shipments of nuclear materials among them are already frequent, additional shipments may have little practical consequence for

would-be terrorists or saboteurs already presented with abundant opportunities for action.

Another detrimental impact of the generation of additional electric power using fossil fuels, primarily coal, is the creation of more

acid rain. Large fossil fuel plants emit sulfur oxides and nitrogen

oxides high into the atmosphere where they may be transported thousands

178
of miles by prevailing winds. Such pollutants are often converted into

sulfuric and nitric acids which eventually wash out in rain, sleet,

hail, and snow. Although acid rain does not directly affect human

health, it poses a real threat to both plants and wildlife which form

the bulk of the eco-system. Many studies are currently being funded by

the federal government to quantify the scope and severity of the acid

rain problem, and to formulate effective ways to eliminate or reduce its

impact. Although the technology needed to more strictly control power

plant emissions currently exists, it is quite expensive, thus creating

resistance by the electric utilities.

Crash safety of EHVs is currently in the early stages of research

and development. However, it appears that structural design to accommodate a heavy set of batteries, as opposed to a fuel tank filled with

gasoline, is well within current technology. In fact, batteries containing acids, chlorine, and other potentially hazardous chemicals may

be less dangerous than a fuel tank filled with gasoline or diesel. This

is often overlooked because gasoline is commonplace and accepted; but it

is extremely flammable and can explode or burn upon impact. Since it is

likely that EHVs will have to meet the same safety standards as conventional vehicles and will equal the lower-performance conventional vehicles in acceleration, their overall influence on the number and severity

of auto accidents should be small. In fact, if lower-capability EHVs

encourage more prudent driving, there may be positive benefits from

their use. There are possibilities of electrical shock, explosive

fires, or chemical and toxic gas hazards when operating and recharging

EHVs, but these can be minimized through proper engineering and design.

Increased battery production using a variety of chemicals unfamiliar to the battery manufacturing industry could create new safety

concerns. However, careful design and construction of new facilities

and close monitoring by appropriate federal agencies should minimize the

risks.

7.3.4 Thermal Pollution

EHVs would be about as efficient overall as conventional vehicles

fueled from petroleum, if typical losses in electric utilities are included. They would thus have little effect on total energy used and

eventually released as heat into the environment, In conventional

vehicles, however, almost all this heat is evolved when and where the

vehicles are driven. In EHVs, only about a third of the total heat

would be released in this manner. The remainder would be evolved at a

relatively few power plants during recharging, and concentrated releases

of heat can potentially produce changes in local weather patterns. However, it is not expected that 20-percent electrification of light-duty

vehicular travel would result in any significant impact on thermal

pollution.

179
7. 3.5 Waste Oil

Lubricating oil in the crankcases of automotive engines is periodically drained and replaced with clean oil. The old oil is often collected and used for boiler fuel, for road oiling, for asphalt, and for

other purposes. Nevertheless, substantial quantities of oil are more or

less indiscriminately dumped into the environment14particularly in rural

areas where collection is presently unprofitable.

EHVs have no crankcases and require no periodic oil changes. To

the extent that they were used, the problem of discarded oil from automobiles would be reduced. Overall, 20-percent electrification of lightduty vehicular travel in the United States would eliminate the use of

about 130 million gallons of oil per year for automobile crankcase use.

This amounts to almost 15 percent of all automotive demand for lubricating oils and 7 percent of all demand for lubricating oils.

7.4 ECONOMY

The substitution of electric and hybrid vehicles for conventional

automobiles could affect the economy in several major ways. Purchase

and operating costs affect consumers, changes in economic activity to

manufacture, sell, and service automobiles affect employment, the expansion and retirement of various production facilities affect business

capital investments, and changes in the importation of petroleum and

battery materials affect the national balance of payments.

7.4.1 Consumers

Perhaps the most pervasive effect of EHVs in the near term would

be the higher initial and life-cycle costs to motorists. Even with

longer life and inexpensive electricity, near-term EHVs are still more

expensive than conventional vehicles on a life-cycle cost basis at

today’s gasoline prices. If consumers are forced to spend more on

transportation, less of their disposable income is available for other

purchases. This decrease in non-automotive expenditures would be felt

throughout the economy. The higher cost of electric and hybrid vehicles

might make their purchase less attractive to consumers. If the government wished to encourage electric or hybrid vehicle use, it might have

to subsidize either the producers or the consumers, which would affect

the national budget. In the future, an increase in gasoline price could

bring the cost of EHV use more in line with the cost of using conventional vehicles, thereby negating these economic effects on consumers.

Increases in battery life or decreases in battery price beyond those

projected here are unlikely to reduce EHV costs by more than a small

amount.

7.4.2 Capital Investment

Capital investment will be necessary to expand the production

capacity to mine and process battery materials, to manufacture propulsion batteries, motors, controllers, and chargers, and to recycle

180
battery materials. Little, if any, increase in investment for new

electric utility capacity will be required, assuming overnight, off-peak

recharging. Capital equipment associated with the manufacturing of

internal combustion engines would be retired. However, the penetration

of electric and hybrid vehicles will probably be accomplished over a

period of years, during which portions of the aging capital equipment

would be retired anyway. Major portions of the facilities and equipment

used to produce conventional vehicles can be adapted for use in the

product ion of electric and hybrid vehicles. The magnitude of capital

investment and retirement has not been estimated,

7. 4.3 Employment

The switch from conventional to electric and hybrid vehicles would

alter the employment in those economic sectors involved in production,

sales, and service. Overall, only 3.75 percent of US employment in 1974

was in potentially affected industries, with payrolls amounting to only

4.5 percent of the national total.

Major increases in employment will occur in industries associated

with propulsion batteries, including the mining and processing of materials, the manufacturing and sale of the batteries themselves, and the

recycling of the batteries to recover usable materials. Employment

would also increase in sectors involved in the production and servicing

of motors, controllers, and chargers. More people are involved in the

distribution and sales of vehicles than are involved in their production. Distribution and sales of vehicles would continue with little

change; therefore employment and payrolls in these sectors would be

little effected.

Only some of the jobs pertaining to the manufacturing and servicing of internal combustion engines will be lost if hybrid vehicles

replace conventional vehicles. Production workers will still be required to manufacture internal combustion engines and other vehicle

parts, mechanics will still be required to service the ICE and other

vehicle parts for which they have already been trained, and sane service

station attendants will still be needed to pump gasoline. The level of

ICE-related work would depend on hybrid vehicle design: hybrids most

like ICE cars (high-performance hybrids) would lead to modest changes,

whereas hybrids most like electric cars (range-extension hybrids) would

lead to larger changes.

The maximum dislocation of jobs would occur if all conventional

vehicles were replaced by electric vehicles, since all internal combustion engine production and service would disappear, gasoline production

and sales would vastly decrease, and huge increases would occur in

industries associated with propulsion batteries. If all vehicles were

electric in the year 2000, over 800,000 jobs would be lost in ICErelated industries. Over half of these lost jobs would be from automotive service stations. Other sectors experiencing large employment

181
losses include: automotive repair shops (-143,000), automotive supply

stores (-107,000) , motor vehicle parts distribution (-84,000), and motor

vehicle body and parts manufacturing (-54,000). However, job losses i n

these industries will be more than offset by employment gains in electrical equipment, mining, and battery manufacture, distribution, and

sales. If all vehicles in the year 2000 contained lead-acid batteries,

an estimated 850,000 new jobs would have been created; if lithium-metal

sulfide batteries are used, newly created jobs would number over two

million (Table 7.8). Although shifts between economic sectors occur,

the overall change in employment and payrolls is insignificant, even in

the extreme case of 100 percent electric vehicle penetration, amounting

to about a one-percent increase (Tables 7.9 and 7.10).

7.4.4 Balance of Trade

One of the major goals of EHV use is the reduction of petroleum

imports. Such a reduction would improve the nation’s balance of trade.

However, savings in petroleum imports will be offset to some extent by

imports of battery materials.

Assuming the current percentage imports of battery materials and

using their 1979 price, the cost of imported materials to electrify 20

percent of light-duty vehicular travel in the United States (25 percent

of the US light-duty vehicle fleet) would be approximately 3.8 billion

dollars if lead-acid batteries are used, or 20.3 billion dollars for

nickel-zinc batteries (Table 7.11). Few or no imports would be required

for lithium-metal sulfide batteries. These imports can be compared with

a savings of about 220 million barrels of oil annually in 2000, which,

at a nominal price of $30 per barrel for imported petroleum, yields a

6.6 billion dollar annual decrease in imports.12

Thus it appears that although initial requirements for battery

material might add considerably to United States imports, their value

would be recouped in a few years through reduced oil imports. There are

many uncertainties, however, including the amount of imported petroleum

used to generate electricity for recharging electric and hybrid vehicles, the extent to which increased demand for battery materials affect

their price, and the extent to which additional demand beyond baseline

projections for battery materials would be met by additional imports.

The actions of cartels controlling petroleum, and perhaps some battery

materials, are impossible to project.

The use of electric and hybrid vehicles is likely to improve the

balance of payments in the future. By the year 2000, only a small

percentage of fuel used to generate recharge electricity will be

petroleum. In time, United States mining operations will be able to

supply a greater percentage of battery materials, cutting down on

imports if their prices have increased substantially. One of the major

factors leading to a reduction in the balance of payments will be the

development of efficient recycling which will develop once a significant

182
TABLE 7.8

IMPACTS OF 100 PERCENT USE OF ELECTRIC CARS

EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL, BY INDUSTRY

Standard

Industrial

Classification Industry

(independent of battery type)

3592 Carburetor, piston, valve manufacturing

3622 Electric controls manufacturing

3694 ICE electric equipment manufacturing

3711,3714 Motor vehicle body and parts manufacturing 

5012 Motor vehicle parts distribution

5171,517 2 Petroleum wholesalers

5531 Automotive supply stores

5541 Automotive service station s

7538,7539 Automotive repair shops

SUBTOTAL

(-lead-acid batteries)

1031,3332 Lead and zinc mining, smelting

3691 Storage battery manufacturing

Battery distribution and sale s

SUBTOTAL

(nickel-zfnc batteries )

1031,3332 Lead and zinc mining and smeIting

Nickel and cobalt mining

3691 Storage battery manufacturing

Battery distribution and sale s

SUBTOTAL

(lithium-sulfur batteries )

Nickel and cobalt mining

. Lithium mining

Molybdenum mining

3691 Storage battery manufacturing

Battery distribution and sale s

SUBTOTAL

Employment Change,

thousands

1980 1990 2000

-24 -31 -37

33 38 41

15 14 11

-56 -57 -54

-57 -55 -84

-35 -22 -28

-67 -87 -107

-293 -350 -410

-93 -118 -143

-576 -667 -810

73 86 107

196 214 224

432 454 &67

701 754 798

55 60 57

43 37 35

518 587 622

l,084 1,140 1,172

1,700 1,823 1,887

11

27

12

699

1,317

2,066

ON

Payroll Change,

millions Of 1977 dOllars

1980

-34 5

425

425

-100 0

-85 4

-50 5

-64 0

-174 1

-75 7

-519 1

994

2,64 8

5,75 3

9,39 5

744

796

6,99 6

14,43 8

22,97 3

1990

-45 0

497

230

-117 3

-81 9

-33 9

-85 8

-211 2

-94 8

-597 2

1,254

2,98 5

6.53 6

10,77 5

868

915

8,19 7

16,40 4

26,38 4

2000

-55 4

459

187

1227

-136 0

-45 5

-107 5

-249 9

-114 1

-766 5

1,66 5

3,212

7,09 9

11,976

892

1,33 2

8,90 3

17,81 8

28,94 6

408

863

402

10,00 5

20,01 0

31,69 4

Baseline projections made by least-squares regression analysis of historical data published in County Business Patterns. Adjustments were

made to the portion of activity estimated to be affected by electric

vehicle production and use.
TABLE 7.9

IMPACTS OF 100 PERCENT USE OF ELECTRIC CARS ON TOTAL

EMPLOYMENT

Type of Battery Used

In Electric Cars

Lead-Acid

Nickel-Zinc

Lithium-Metal Sulfide

IN INDUSTRIES DIRECTLY AFFECTED

Employment Change in Affected Industries

Thousands Percent US Employment

1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

126 87 -12 0.14 0.09 -0.01

1124 1156 1077 1.27 1.19 1.02

1287 1319 1255 1.45 1.36 1.19

TABLE 7.10

IMPACTS OF 100 PERCENT USE OF ELECTRIC CARS ON TOTAL

PAYROLL IN INDUSTRIES DIRECTLY AFFECTED

Payroll Change in Affected Industries

Type of Battery Used Millions of 1977 Dollars Percent US Payroll

In Electric Cars 1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000

Lead-Acid 4204 4803 4311 0.28 0.23 0.14

Nickel-Zinc 17782 20412 21281 1.19 0.97 0.70

Lithium-Metal Sulfide 19949 22813 24029 1.33 1.09 0.79

Basline projections made by least-squares regression analysis of historical

employment and payroll data published in County Business Patterns. Adjustments were made to the portion of activity estimated to be affected by

electric vehicle production and use.

184
TABLE 7.11

NOMINAL CUMULATIVE COST OF IMPORTED MATERIALS TO ELECTRIFY 20

Battery

Lead-Acid:

Lead

Nickel-Zinc:

Nickel

Zinc

Cobalt

LIGHT-DUTY VEHICULAR TRAVEL IN THE UNITED

Material

Requirement,

lb X 106

35.0

1000

6 .0

0 .5

Percent

Imported*

30

50

50

100

1979 Price

per Pound†

0.36

2.24

0.20

16.95

STATES

PERCENT OF

Cost of Imports,

billions of dollars

3.8

11.2

0.6

8.5

*Current percent imported in absence of EHVs

†.

‘Source: L. G. Hill, The Impact of EHVs on Factor Prices and the Balance

of Trade, Discussion Draft 16, Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois,

October 1979.

level of EHV penetration is reached. Recycling will substantially

reduce the demand for new battery materials.

7.5

7.5,1

RESOURCES

Imports of Battery Materials

The United States currently imports nearly all the cobalt, graphite, and aluminum ore and over half of its nickel. IQ Dependence on

foreign sources for supplies of battery materials involves significant

political considerations, especially if the reserves are concentrated in

one or a few locations. The political stability of exporting countries

affects the reliability of continued supply. Concentration of resources

opens the possibility of market control in the form of monopolies or

cartels which could manipulate the price and availability of materials

required for batteries, A nickel cartel could be as damaging to an

electric vehicle industry based on nickel-zinc batteries as the OPEC oil

185
cartel is to the present auto transportation system. Fortunately, most

battery materials are imported from Western-aligned nations, the major

exception being cobalt, the majority of which is imported from Zaire and

other politically unstable African countries (Table 7.12) .

Of all the battery materials considered in this report, the United

States is self-sufficient in or imports only snail quantities of boron,

TABLE 7.12

LOCATION OF BATTERY MATERIAL RESERVES AND

.—------ Material/Location —

RESOURCES

Percent of

World Resources --. .-

Material/Locatio n . ..- — -.. . . . -

Aluminu m

Australi a

Guinea

Brazi l

Jamaica

Greece

Cameroon

Boron

United States

USSR

Turkey

China

Argentina

Chile

Chlorine

United States

Many Others

Cobalt

Zaire

Oceania

Zambia

Cuba

Canada

United States

Copper

United States

Chile

USSR

Canada

Asia

Sea Nodules

Graphite

Mexico

Malagasy Republic

Sri Lanka

United States

Iro n

26

26

16

6

4

4

21

17

17

4

3

5

31

17

12

10

6

4

27

13

13

9

4

8

Lead

25

25

25

13

6

6

United States

Canada

USSR

Australia

36

12

18

18

36

12

11

9

Lithium

United States

USSR

Canada

Africa

Nickel

New Caledonia

Canada

USSR

Australi a

Indonesia

Cuba

Phillipines

United States

Sulfu r

Asia/Near East

Canada

United States

USSR

Spain

Zinc

Canada

United States

Australia

USSR

Ireland

44

27

13

13

44

16

10

9

8

6

2

0.003

30

21

12

8

1

23

20

12

8

5

44

19

14

10

22

15

8

6

5

16

6

12

17

28

12

11

9

20

19

13

9

4

28

27

14

14

7

--

31

36

14

43

10

31

20

20

9

9

7

- -

20

11

6

8

10

20

Source: US

us

Bureau of Mines, Mineral Facts and Problems, 1975 Edition,

Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 1976.

186
chlorine, copper, lithium, and SUlfur. Therefore, no problems in obtaining these materials are foreseen for the electric vehicle industry,

although significant expansion of US lithium production will be required. While the United States has large resources of most battery

materials, in the short run at least, it will continue to rely on

foreign sources to supply battery materials. One reason for continued

importation of these materials is that they can be obtained at less cost

from countries where labor is less expensive than in the United States.

Another reason is that higher-grade ores can be found outside the United

States. In the cases of aluminum, graphite, and nickel, new technologies would need to be developed before deposits in the United States

could be economically utilized. If the United States attempted selfsufficiency, costs would most likely increase significantly because of

the use of more expensive labor, the development of new technologies,

and the capital cost involved in expanding domestic industries.

Lead-Acid Batteries. The primary materials required for the production of lead-acid batteries are lead and sulfur. The United States

now produces most of the sulfur needed domestically. Environmental restrictions will enforce a substantial production of sulfur recovered

from petroleum refining, coal combustion, and other sources, so the

supply of sulfur for use in batteries should be plentiful.

The United States produces about two-thirds of the lead needed to

satisfy domestic primary demand (for new rather than recycled material) ,

but substantial increases in mining and smelting capacity would be required to continue supplying this percentage of projected primary demand

if mass production of lead-acid propulsion batteries occurs.14 Therefore,

demand for lead by battery manufacturers would probably precipitate an

increase in lead imports, at least in the short run, until recycling reduces the primary demand for lead for EHV batteries.

Nickel-Iron and Nickel-Zinc Batteries. The nickel-iron battery

requires principally nickel and iron, plus smaller amounts of cobalt

(used in the nickel electrodes), COPPer, lithium, and potassium.

Nickel-zinc batteries require the same materials except for the substitution of zinc for iron. Nickel, cobalt, and some of the iron or

zinc will be imported for these batteries.

Domestic primary production supplies only about 10 percent of the

demand for nickel in the United States, with scrap accounting for 13 over half of the nickel supply is imported, another 20 to 30 percent.

mainly from Canada. The potential supply of nickel from domestic

sources is high, but production will require marked improvement over

current technology for extracting nickel from low-grade ores. Deep sea

mining is another possible source.

Nearly all of the cobalt used in the United States is imported,

about 75 percent from Zaire. The political instability of nations in

187
this area has recently caused interruptions in production. There is

also evidence of the existence of a cobalt cartel, which could control

15 Expansion of United States cobalt pro- cobalt prices and supplies.

duction is predicted, especially if nickel production is increased,

since cobalt is a by-product of nickel mining, or if deep sea mining is

implemented.

Approximately one-third of iron ore required by the United States

iron and steel industries is imported. The price and availability of

foreign ores may be influenced by organizations of producers. The USSR

has the world’s largest reserves and resources of iron ore, but it is

also abundant in the western world.

In the recent past, the United States has imported one-third to

one-half of its zinc requirements, principally from Canada. Zinc demand

for battery materials could be met with existing reserves, but significant expansion of smelting capacity would be required.

Zinc-Chlorine Batteries. In addition to zinc, which is discussed

above, the primary materials needed for the zinc-chlorine battery are

chlorine and graphite. Chlorine can be readily supplied domestically,

but the United States' demand for graphite is almost entirely fulfilled

by imports from Mexico, Sri Lanka, and the Malagasy Republic.13 The

United States could increase its output of graphite, but at some expense

to reactivate domestic sources. Graphite can be manufactured, but with

present technologies the product is not suitable for all uses. Grades

of graphite differ considerably, so some level of graphite importation

will probably continue.

Lithium-Metal Sulfide Batteries. Aluminum, boron, chlorine,

copper, iron, lithium, potassium, and sulfur are used in lithium-metal

sulfide batteries. All the materials can be supplied domestically

except some of the iron and aluminum. The United States imports about

90 percent of the raw materials (buaxite and alumina) required to produce aluminum. Principal exporting countries are Australia and Jamaica.

Battery requirements for aluminum are a very small portion of total

United States demand, so EHV production will not significantly affect

aluminum imports. The United States has large deposits of lithium, most

of which are undeveloped because of low demand. However, the amount of

lithium needed for lithium-metal sulfide batteries will require extensive development of these resources.

7.5.2 Battery Materials Versus Petroleum

All natural resources exist in finite amounts. Increased demand

for battery materials would spur exploration for new deposits, but the

amount of material in these deposits is unknown. Ultimately, battery

materials may not be any more plentiful than petroleum if the world

switches to electric and hybrid vehicles.

difference between the use of gasoline and

transportation propulsion: gasoline burns

tinual new supplies; battery materials can

188

However, there is a major

the use of batteries for

and is gone, requiring conbe recycled, and therefore
new materials would be needed only

small amounts lost in recycling.

to enlarge the fleet and to replace

The United States probably has enough resources to be selfsufficient in the supply of most materials for batteries. However,

self-sufficiency would involve considerable (presently unquantifiable)

expenditures on the development of new technologies to process low-grade

ores (especially in the cases of nickel and cobalt for nickel-iron and

nickel-zinc batteries and graphite for zinc-chloride batteries) and on

exploration and capital equipment to mine and process new resources.

Such expenditures would probably be unwarranted if exporting countries

maintain stable governments and good trade relations with the United

States continue. The probability of continuing supplies from exporting

countries is high, and the likelihood of cartel actions is low, except

perhaps in the case of cobalt.

7.5.3 Effect on Prices of Battery Materials

Historically, real prices of most minerals and metals have not

increased; that is, their cost trends have been stable or downward

relative to the costs of other goods and services. The sharp rise in

the cost of energy and the expense of pollution control in the 1970s

have caused the cost of materials to rise recently. Continued exploration for new deposits and improved technologies for processing lowergrade deposits offset the depletion of known reserves, thereby mitigating price increases which could arise from the scarcity of materials,

although materials from lower-grade deposits may be more expensive.

15 

A recent study by Charles River Associates has concluded that

estimated reserves of battery materials are sufficient to satisfy the

cumulative demand for these materials, even with widespread use of EHVs,

so that major price increases are not expected to occur, except in the

cases of lithium, nickel, and cobalt.

High levels of EHV production would create heavy demands for

lithium (if lithium-metal sulfide batteries are produced), or for nickel

and cobalt (if nickel-iron or nickel-zinc batteries are produced), which

could exert significant upward pressure on the long-run price trends for

these materials. Price effects have not been quantitatively estimated,

but if producers were given sufficient lead time* to increase explora-

*

“Sufficient lead time” is very difficult to quantify. If production

requires only the reopening of mines which have been shut down, sufficient lead time might be a year. If exploration and the erection of

mining and processing equipment are required, five years might be a

minimum time before production begins. If new technologies must be

developed (as would be the case if domestic nickel, graphite, and

aluminum ore deposits were to be exploited), the lead time required

might be ten years or more. Another, perhaps

tion exists. Private firms will not begin to

the increased demand has raised prices to the

expect a reasonable return on investment.

189

more critical, consideradevelop new sources until

point where they can
tion and production capacity, the long-run price increases seem unlikely

to exceed 10 to 20 percent. However, extremely rapid increases in production of lithium, nickel, or cobalt, without time to plan an orderly

expansion, could result in a doubling or more of prices for these

materials.15

These predictions of price trends assume continued availability of

imports. A disruption of the world market for these materials, either

because of political upheaval in exporting countries or the formation of

cartels, could result in price fluctuations which are impossible to

predict.

7.5.4 Competing Demands for Battery Materials

Massive demands for battery materials for EHVs could drive up

costs and reduce supplies of materials for other applications. The

relative demand for materials for EHV batteries and other uses are discussed in Sec. 5.4.3.

The principal uses for lead have been in transportation, mostly in

storage batteries for starting, lighting, and ignition; in anti-knock

compounds added to gasoline (which is being phased out); and as sheathing for electrical cable. Lead is also used in paints, ammunition, and

construction.

Nickel is widely used to make alloys which are strong, corrosionresistant, and useful over a wide temperature range. Such materials are

of strategic importance, used in aircraft, ships, motor vehicles, and

electrical machinery. The chemical and petroleum industries are the

principal end users of nickel, chiefly in the form of alloys. Substitutes for nickel exist for almost all its uses, but they are generally more expensive and less effective.

Zinc is third among non-ferrous metals in terms of world consumption, following only copper and aluminum. It is used for alloying,

protective coatings (galvanizing) , and in making rubber and paints.

Principal uses for cobalt are in heat-, abrasion-, and corrosionresistant’ materials, high-strength materials, and permanent magnets.

Cobalt is used in permanent magnets, aircraft and surface vehicle

engines, machine tools, construction and mining, and paints and chemicals.

The largest uses of graphite are for foundry facings to provide

for clean and easy recovery of metal castings, and for raising the

carbon content of steel. Graphite is also used in heat-resistant, nonmetallic ceramic materials, and lubricants and packings. It may also

find increasing use in graphite-reinforced plastics. The best-known

uses of graphite, in pencils and in brake and clutch linings, account

for only about 9 percent of the demand for graphite.

190
Lithium compounds are used in the electrolyte of cells for producing aluminum and in ceramics, glass, and lubricants. Lithium metal,

which accounts for only a small portion of current lithium demand, is

used for the manufacture of synthetic rubber, Vitamin A, and anodes for

premium primary batteries offering very high energy density and long

shelf life. Though the demand for lithium is presently very small,

rapid growth in demand is projected, though there is uncertainty about

the amount. The generation of power through nuclear fusion, if commercially successful, could require amounts of lithium close to today’s

total identified resources, and substitution of other materials for this

purpose is unlikely.

7.6 TRANSPORTATION

EHVs can satisfy nearly all normal driving needs of the general

public, particularly in urban areas where travel distances and average

speeds are moderate. Motorists who purchase and utilize EHVs will

experience both advantages and disadvantages compared to owners of

conventional vehicles. In general, EHVs will provide owners with the

convenience of recharging at home using an assured electrical power

supply. They will also be quieter to operate and may be more reliable

and maintainable. The primary disadvantages will be that initial costs

will be higher and life-cycle costs will be greater, at least until advanced batteries become commercially available by 2000 or until real

prices of motor fuels rise substantially. Electrics, unlike hybrids,

will also have less range than conventional vehicles.

Most EHV owners who live in single-family residences would be able

to obtain electrical outlets for recharging at overnight parking places.

These people would thus enjoy the convenience of at-home recharging instead of waiting in lines at service stations if the availability of

gasoline again becomes critical. This is extremely important because

the recent gasoline supply interruptions have clearly demonstrated that

motorists place a high premium on minimizing the necessity of waiting in

service station lines. Although hybrid vehicles will occasionally require gasoline, the vehicle’s range in electric mode will provide the

motorist with mobility in the total absence of gasoline, and with the

opportunity to be quite selective in determining the best time to

refuel.

Since EHVs are substantially quieter and more vibration-free than

conventional vehicles, motorists will experience a somewhat smoother,

more silent ride. In addition, the inherent reliability of electric

motors and controllers in comparison to internal combustion engines may

provide EHV owners with relief from many service and reliability

problems. Recent figures for on-the-road failures of automobiles corroborate this expectation (Table 7.13). Nearly 85 percent of all onthe-road failures can be attributed to the internal combustion engine

system.

191
Cause of Failure

TABLE 7.13

ON-THE-ROAD FAILURES OF AUTOMOBILES

Engine

Fuel System

Cooling System

Ignition System

Starting/Charging System

Frequency, percent

8 .6

13.6

27.3

18.2

16.4

Total - Engine Systems 84.1

Transmission 5.7

Driveline

Brakes

Suspension

Electrical

Other

1.7

1.2

1.4

System 3.5

2.4

Total - Remainder of Car 15.9

Source: William Hatch et al., Analysis of On-Road Failure Data, US

Department of Transportation, DOT-HS-802 360, May 1977.

Battery reliability is also a legitimate concern because, until

now, the industry has concentrated primarily on the production of leadacid batteries used to start internal combustion engines. The widespread use of EHVs will require the production of a variety of new types

of propulsion batteries which will experience greater loads under more

severe conditions. Since the reliability of these new batteries has not

yet been established, some concern is warranted. However, careful design, engineering, and production of batteries could result in total EHV

systems that are more reliable than comparable conventional vehicles.

Other types of service and repair of components other than the

electrical system and ICE should be similar for EHVs and conventional

vehicles.

192
Hybrid systems may not be quite as reliable as electrics because

they are more complex. However, this depends largely on the particular

design selected for the vehicle. In the case of a simple range-extension hybrid, reliability may be comparable to that of an electric. In

more complex designs, it may be lower. In either case, however, actual

availability of the vehicle for driving may be greater than that of an

electric because of the possibility of operating in either of two different modes if one fails. If the ICE fails, operation can continue in

the electric mode. If the electric propulsion system fails, the ICE

system can be used to power the vehicle. Only in those cases where both

systems fail or the failure of one system precludes the operation of the

other would the vehicle be totally disabled.

Both electric and hybrid vehicles may also be more maintainable

than comparable conventional vehicles. A recent study of parts sales

and labor requirements for repair and maintenance of conventional cars

revealed that 72 percent of labor hours and 62 percent of parts sales

were required for the engine and its fuel, ignition, cooling, and

exhaust systems, none of which are present in an electric car. 6 Although conventional car maintainability is expected to continue to improve, current estimates indicate that maintenance cost per mile for

electric vehicles may be some 60 percent less than for conventional

vehicles. This is partly because electric motors are extremely reliable, and normally require very little maintenance. Periodic brush

replacement is generally all that is required, and this is only done

every year or two. Electronic components such as choppers and chargers

are constructed in a modular fashion and are normally replaced as whole

units, often at higher cost.

The only other major electrical component is the propulsion

battery pack. In an EHV powered by a lead-acid battery system, the

sheer number of cells needed greatly increases the chances of experiencing at least one cell failure within the system, given current battery

technology. This is critical because loss of one or more cells can

severely affect battery performance and corresponding effective battery

range. This potential problem is further compounded in advanced battery

systems, such as zinc-chlorine and lithium-metal sulfide which are not

modular, but simply consist of a “black box.” Repair in these cases,

unlike a lead-acid battery, requires more than the simple replacement of

a Particular defective cell or module; instead, the entire system, in

some cases, must be removed and disassembled to effect the repair. TO

what extent improved technology can eliminate or reduce these potential

reliability problems is unclear.

Although hybrid vehicles utilize an ICE in addition to the

electric system, the ICE is used for as little as 20 percent of total

annual vehicle mileage. As a result, hybrid maintenance costs should be

substantially less than for a conventional vehicle, but greater than for

an electric. This is because most failures are a function of miles

193
driven and conditions under which driving occurs. Cold-start driving

and short trips, as well as stop-start driving, are particularly hard on

a conventional vehicle; they present little or no problem for rangeextension hybrids, but may raise significant problems for high-performance hybrids.

The major disadvantage of EHVs that motorists would incur is high

initial cost (Table 7.14). It is estimated that near-term EHVs may

range from 60 to 80 percent higher in initial cost than conventional

vehicles. In the case of advanced vehicles, EHVs may range from 20 to

40 percent higher on a first-cost basis. This is important because

potential buyers tend to place a high premium on dollars invested initially in comparison to savings over the vehicle’s life cycle. Unfortunately, higher initial cost is inherent in EHVs because batteries are

more expensive than gasoline stored in a tank, and heavy batteries require a heavier, more expensive vehicle structure.

Overall life-cycle costs in general will also be higher, at least

in the case of near-term vehicles (Table 7.14). Given current electricity and gasoline prices, near-term EHVs would range from 3 to 20 percent higher than conventional vehicles. Even with the near-term zincchlorine battery, the electric would cost more to own than a conventional vehicle over its entire life. In the case of the advanced batteries,

however, EHVs could be from 8 to 11 percent cheaper. If the public becomes aware that life-cycle costs rather than initial costs represent

the ‘bottom line,” this could present a strong incentive to switch to

EHVs.

The cost comparisons presented in Table 7.14 are all based on a

gasoline price of $1.25 per gallon and an electricity price of 3 cents

per kilowatt-hour. If gasoline prices rise relative to electricity,

EHVs will become more cost-effective from a life-cycle standpoint.

If gasoline prices rise, but electricity prices remain constant

(Fig. 7.8), all of the representative electric vehicles would have lower

life-cycle costs than conventional vehicles at gasoline prices of $3 per

gallon and above. In the case of hybrids, a price of $3.10 per gallon

or higher would yield the same results. Although, from a realistic

standpoint, electricity prices tend to follow a rise in the price of

gasoline, they do tend to lag behind at first and then “catch up” later.

This trend could create a large price differential much of the time.

Hybrids overcome the major disadvantage of electric vehicles,

namely, limited range. This is particularly important in households

having only one vehicle. However, advanced batteries are expected to

provide EV ranges of 150 miles or more between recharges by the year

2000. This range would be adequate for 98 to 99 percent of all motorists in the largest urban areas on a given day, but it would suffice for

no more than 90 percent of all miles driven on those days.

194
TABLE 7.14

COST COMPARISON OF ELECTRIC, HYBRID, AND CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES

Initial Cost, Life-Cycle Cost,

Vehicle 1980 dollars cents per mile

Electric

Near-Term:

Pb-Acid

Ni-Fe

Ni-Zn

Zn-C12

Advanced:

Zn-C12

Li-MS

Hybrid

Near-Term:

Pb-Acid

Ni-Zn

Advanced:

Li-MS

Conventional (ICE)

8,520

8,400

8,130

8,120

7,050

6,810

8,020

7,770

6,200

Near–Term 4,740

Advanced 5,140

23.9

24.9

26.6

22.0

19.4

20.1

23.7

26.0

19.4

21.4

21.8

Source: Tables 3.5 and 4.2

Assumptions: These cost estimates were developed using a cost estimation model developed by General Research Corporation. The model used

the EHV characteristics described in Sections 3 and 4 of this report

as the basis for these estimates. Gasoline was assumed to cost $1.25

per gallon, and recharge electricity was assumed to be 3 cents per

kilowatt-hour.

195
NEAR-TERM ICE

ADVANCED ICE

NEAR-TERM

ELECTRICS

Ni-Fe

Pb-ACID

/ /

Zn-Cl

ADVANCED ELECTRICS

Li-MS

Zn-Cl 2

1

GASOLINE PRICE, dollars per gallon

a. Electrics

35—

30 –

25 –

20 —

15 —

NEAR-TERM ICE

ADVANCED ICE

NEAR-TERM HYBRIDS

Ni-Zn

Pb-ACID

ADVANCED HYBRIDS

o 1 2 3 4 5

GASOLINE PRICE, dollars per gallon

b. Hybrids

Source: Tables 3.6 and 4.3

Assumption: The price of electricity was held constant at 3 cents per

kilowatt-hour and the price of gasoline was varied from $1.00 to $5.00

per gallon.

Figure 7.8 Life-Cycle Costs of Electric, Hybrid, and Conventional

Vehicles Versus Gasoline Prices

196
7.7 MAJOR UNCERTAINTIES

The major areas of uncertainty which must be considered in assessing the impacts of EHVs are the price and availability of hybrid fuels,

improvements in battery technology, future sales of EHVs, growth of the

electric utility industry, and improvements in conventional vehicles.

History has demonstrated that projections of expected improvements in

battery technology have tended to be overoptimistic. EHV sales are

primarily uncertain because the future price and availability of petroleum fuels are unknown, and because consumers preference are uncertain.

The electric utility industry is currently experiencing sharp declines

in the growth rate of both electric generating capacity and electricity

usage, making prediction of capability for recharging difficult. The

extent to which the fuel economy of advanced conventional vehicles can

be improved is also uncertain. If very fuel-efficient (60-100 mpg)

vehicles become available, the market potential of EHVs could be sharply

limited. Each of these major areas of uncertainty is discussed below.

7.7.1 Improvements in Battery Technology

It is clear that batteries are the key factor for practical EHVs.

Electric motors and controllers are highly developed; they can be extremely quiet and reliable, and reasonably light and inexpensive. Since

the beginning of the century, in contrast, it has been the batteries

that have limited the range and speed of electric vehicles and kept them

more expensive than automobiles with internal-combustion engines.

New kinds of batteries, however, offer prospects of greater improvements in the next decade than in the past eighty years. Improved

lead-acid, nickel-iron, zinc-chlorine, and lithium-metal sulfide batteries are future possibilities which could double, triple, or even

quadruple the amount of energy storage provided by the lead-acid "golfcart” batteries now commonly used in electric cars. Developers of these

batteries also expect operating life to increase as much as eight-fold,

with corresponding reductions in life-cycle cost. Together, these

improvements might dramatically relieve the principal disadvantages of

electric drive.

Based on present progress and levels of effort projected for battery research and development, it seems likely that at least one of the

battery types identified above will be successful. However, past performance clearly shows that battery development has usually not approached the expectations of developers. This may be due to the fact

that it is so much easier to foresee a battery’s potential performance

than its implicit practical problems. The estimates presented here are

intended to place reasonable upper and lower

future batteries.

7.7.2 Future Sales of EHVs

Under even the most optimistic battery

EHVs in competing with conventional vehicles

197

bounds on the prospects for

projections, the success of

in the marketplace will
.

depend primarily on the price and availability of gasoline relative to

electricity. Price tags of EHVs will remain high despite major technological advances, due to the dominant cost of the batteries and, to a

lesser extent, the fact that a heavier structure must be used to support

these batteries. Although they would probably last longer than conventional vehicles because of the inherent longevity of their electric

drive trains and are expected to require less maintenance and repair,

large savings in fuel costs will be required to offset the extra initial

costs of EHVs, particularly in the near term. The future price and

availability of gasoline, however, cannot reliably be projected.

It is also uncertain whether buyers can readily adjust to vehicle

range restrictions. Although we assume that travel patterns will remain

the same, thus requiring EV owners to shift some travel to other vehicles or other modes of transportation, it is not clear whether this will

actually occur. For example, rather than renting a conventional vehicle

for trips beyond the effective range of an electric vehicle, an owner

might simply prefer to forego many of these trips--and both the benefits

and expenses.

7.7.3 Growth of the Electric Utility Industry

For many years, growth in the electric utility industry was remarkably predictable. With only minor variation from year to year,

overall capacity and peak demand grew about 8 percent annually, doubling

every eight to ten years. In the 1970s, however, this steady trend was

interrupted. Although annual growth rates are highly dependent upon

weather conditions, conservation measures, and the economic climate, it

is estimated that the current average growth rate is from 3 to 4 percent

per year.

Concerns for environmental quality and public safety have made it

difficult or even impossible to obtain sites and construction permits

for new power plants. Financing the huge expenditures needed to double

capacity every ten years also has become a major problem. In the wake

of the oil embargo of 1973-1974, the growth of demand dropped drastically, and utilities cancelled or postponed planned expansion accordingly. The national commitment to develop nuclear electric power

faltered, future supplies of nuclear fuels began to appear uncertain,

and public initiatives to restrict or prevent construction of nuclear

power plants appeared in a number of states.

As a result, confident forecasting of supply and demand for

electric power is no longer possible. Conditions have been changing too

rapidly, and stability is not yet in sight. Since the 1973-1974 OPEC

oil embargo, each new annual projection by the utility industry has

embodied a lower rate of growth than in the previous year (Fig. 7.9).

The difference in resultant projections made just two years apart is

enormous: by 2000, it could be over twice the total peak demand

actually recorded in 1970.

198
1400

1200

1000

o

n“

z

a

400

200

0

1

1975 PROJECTIONS:

1975-1984: 6.80% GROWTH

1985-1994: 6.23%

1976 PROJECTIONS:

1975

/

1976-1985: 6.24% GROWTH

1986-1995: 5.690/o / 1976

1977 PROJECTIONS: / / 1977

1977-1986: 5.70°A GROWTH

1987-1996: 5.190/0

1978 PROJECTIONS:

1978-1987: 5.18% GROWTH

1988-1997: 4.660/o

1979 PROJECTIONS:

.

I 1 I I 1 1 J

5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

YEAR

Source: Electric Power Supply and Demand for the Contiguous United

States, Regional Electric Reliability Councils, US Department of

Energy, 1 April 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979.

Figure 7.9 Recent Projections of Peak Summer Demand

for Electric Power

199
On the supply side, there are uncertain prospects for making the

transition to nuclear and coal-fired power plants to reduce petroleum

consumption. Thus far it has been concluded that no additional power

plants, other than those already planned for by the electric utility

industry to meet normal future demand, would be needed to recharge EHVs

if off-peak electricity is utilized. However, if the utilities are

forced to build petroleum-fired power plants instead of nuclear and

coal-fired plants, the fuel mix required to generate recharge energy

would shift more toward petroleum, thus reducing the primary advantage

of EHVs. If they cannot build replacement plants, then available

capacity for generating recharge energy would be reduced.

This is a major area of uncertainty because the future status of

conventional nuclear plants is doubtful, given the concerns of public

safety, environmental protection, and the cost and availability of

nuclear fuels. The question with coal is whether or not emission control technology can be improved enough to meet air quality standards

without greatly increasing the price of electricity. The development of

unconventional oil and gas in the synfuels program is in the early

decision-making stages of development, and is also quite unclear.

Although the industry could begin implementing new power plants which

utilize more fuel-efficient equipment and retrofit some existing plants,

these steps require substantial capital which is difficult to justify

given demand that is down from earlier projections.

The prospects for transition to renewable resources such as solar

and geothermal are even more unclear, as are the potentials of the advanced nuclear breeder reactor and fusion power. Furthermore, these

sources are unlikely to have an effect until after the year 2010, rather

than in the time frame considered in this report.

7.7.4 Improvements in Conventional Vehicles

In order to evaluate the utility of EHVs, it is necessary to make

comparisons with those conventional vehicles that could provide the

greatest competition for EHVs, namely, small urban cars. For the year

2010, it was assumed that the average new car could achieve a composite

fuel economy of 55 miles per gallon, double the CAFE standard of 27.5

mpg for 1985. Light trucks were assumed to achieve about 37 miles per

gallon. Since these are averages, some small cars and trucks would have

higher fuel economy. However, there is great uncertainty as to whether

these fuel economies will be required, attained, or surpassed.

On one side is the automobile industry, which has tended to resist

external demands for rapid changes in technology. At the other is the

Federal Government, which is currently striving to reduce petroleum consumption, with corresponding reductions in imports. Recent testimony

before the Senate Committee on Energy and National Resources recommended

that a target for Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) be set at 50 mpg

for 1990, and 80 mpg for 1995.16 whether or not these targets could be

200
achieved would depend largely on market characteristics and the associated incentives or disincentives. In any case, however, an average

fuel economy of 50-80 mpg for new cars would entail major reductions in

vehicle size, capacity, and performance, even with major improvements in

automotive technology. If these levels of fuel economy are achieved by

1995, and continued to be improved upon, they would significantly reduce

the primary advantage of EHVs, making them much less competitive.

201
REFERENCES FOR SECTION 7

1 0

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8,

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

National Energy Plan II, vol. 1, 1979.

M. Collins, Updated Projections of Air Quality Impacts for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles, General Research Corp., IM-2328, Draft

June 1980.

Noise Control Act of 1972, sec. 2.

W. E. Roper, EPA’s Rulemaking Program and Strategy for Reducing

Surface Transportation Noise, Paper 780389, Society of Automotive

Engineers SAE/SP-80/456.

Research and Development of Electric Vehicles in Japan, Agency of

Industrial Science and Technology, Ministry of International Trade

Industry and Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc., 1977.

W. Hamilton, Electric Automobiles, McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York,

1980.

R. Bernardi et al., Quantitative Environmental Comparison of Coal

and Nuclear Generation: Workshop Summary, NSF/OEP-76-O03, Mitre

Corp. , McLean, Va. , September 1975.

E. E. E1-Hinnawi, Review of the Environmental Impact of Nuclear

Energy, IAEA-CN-36/361, International Atomic Energy Agency,

-, 1977 .

L. D. Hamilton, Energy and Health: The Health Impacts of Present

and Alternative Energy Sources and Policies, BNL-21395, Brookhaven

National Laboratory, Upton, N.Y. , 1976.

C. D. Brown, et al. , The Environmental Effects of Using Coal for

Generating Electricity, NUREG-02152, Argonne National Laboratory,

Illinois, May 1977.

W. A. Irwin, et al., Used Oil in the United States and Europe, EPA

600/5-74-015, U.S. Environmental protection Agency, Washington,

D.C., July 1974.

L. G. Hill, The Impact of EHVS on Factor prices and the Balance of

Trade, Discussion Draft 16, Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois,

October 1979.

&

U.S. Bureau of Mines. Mineral Facts and Problems, 1975 edition, U.S.

Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1976.

202
14. “Making Lead as Costly as

p, 26.

Gold, ” Business Week, Jan. 24, 1977,

15, Supplies of Materials for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles, Charles

River Associates, Boston, Draft June 1980.

16. C. Gray, Jr., “The Potential for Improved Automobile Fuel Economy

Between 1985 and 1995,11 Testimony before the Senate Committee on

Energy and National Resources, Apr. so, lgeo.

203
APPENDIX

ASSUMPTIONS FOR PROJECTING WEIGHT AND PERFORMANCE

OF ELECTRIC AND HYBRID VEHICLES

Weight of an electric vehicle was estimated based on these assumptions:

1. propulsion weight must be proportional to vehicle test

weight (i.e., the curb weight plus payload during acceleration tests) .

2. Structure and chassis weight must be proportional to gross

vehicle weight (i.e., curb weight plus the maximum allowed

payload) .

3. Battery weight must be some arbitrary fraction of weight.

4. Upper body weight is given for a specified payload.

5. Vehicle curb weight is the sum of propulsion weight, structures and chassis weight, and upper body weight.

Table A.1 shows the combination of these assumptions into a parametric weight model, The key parameter here is battery fraction f ,

the fraction of vehicle test weight devoted to battery. Use of the

model requires estimates for payload weight, upper body weight, the

propulsion fraction a (the fraction of test weight devoted to the

electric drive train), and the structure fraction b (the fraction of

gross vehicle weight devoted to structure and chassis) . These estimates

are summarized in Table A.2.

The propulsion weight fraction a in Table A.2 is based on an

overall requirement for capability to accelerate from O to 40 mph in 10

seconds. As discussed in Chapter 2, this suffices for safe entry into

freeway traffic and requires an electric drive train output of about 28

hp per ton of vehicle test weight. This horsepower requirement, combined with the drive train weights and efficiencies of Table A.3, yields

the propulsion weight parameters in Table A.2 for passenger cars. For

light trucks, which historically employ transmissions and axles weighing

more per horsepower of capacity, propulsion weight parameters in Table

A.2 are correspondingly higher.

Range and energy use of electric vehicles were estimated using the

ELVEC computer simulation. ELVEC was constructed in 1976 by General

Research Corporation to support projections fo electric vehicle capabilities for a DOE study, and was subsequently expanded to support

analyses for DOE of electric and hybrid vehicle performance standards.

After a survey of over a hundred competing models and simulations, the

204
Symbol

w

PL, max

w

UB

‘G

‘c

‘T

‘s

Wp

WB

TABLE A.1

PARAMETRIC REPRESENTATION OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE WEIGHT

Definition

Maximum design payload

Upper body weight

Gross vehicle weight

Curb weight

Test weight

Structure and chassis weight

Propulsion weight

Battery weight

Formula

--

- -

‘G

= Wc + WP L, max

See below

WT = WC+300 lb

W=a• W

s G

W p =b ● W T

w B =f • WT

w + awPL,max + 300(b + f)

w

= W UB + WS + WP + WB 

= ‘

B

c 1 - (a+b+f )

Source: W. Hamilton, Electric Automobiles, McGraw-Hill Book

Company, New York, 1980

205
TABLE A.2

WEIGHT PARAMETERS FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Vehicles with

Near-Term Batteries

Maximum

Payload,

lb

Upper Body

Weight,

lb

4-Passenger Car

5-Passenger Car

6-Passenger Car

Compact Pickup

Compact Van

Vehicles with

Advanced Batteries

4-Passenger Cars

5-Passenger Cars

6-Passenger Cars

Compact Pickup

Compact Van

900

1200

1650

1190

1190

833

957

1226

882

996

Structural

Weight

Fraction, a

0.247

0.243

0.237

0.241

0.241

Propulsion

Weight

Fraction, b

0.101

0.101

0.101

0.109

0.109

900 719 0.239 0.083

1200 826 0.237 0.083

1650 1056 0.232 0.083

1190 761 0.2363 0.091

1190 860 0.2363 0.091

Source: General Research Corporation

Cal Tech Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) chose ELVEC in 1978 for continued development. JPL now maintains ELVEC for general use on a

nationwide computer time-share system.

ELVEC used as inputs vehicle and battery weights from the model of

Table Al, propulsion efficiencies from Table A.3, and the road load

parameters shown in Table A.4. It was run to determine range and energy

use of electric vehicles with the batteries and battery fractions in

Table A.5. Battery performance was described in Sec. 2.2; ELVEC outputs

were summarized in Sees. 2.5 and 2.6.

206
TABLE A.3

SPECIFIC WEIGHTS AND EFFICIENCIES OF PROPULSION COMPONENTS

Technology Component

Average Efficiency, Specific

Weight, percent

lb/hp City Highway

Near-Term Improved DC traction 6.25 82.5 87.5

motor with transistor

controller

Advanced Brushless variable- 4.93

reluctance “disc”

motor with 3-phase

semiconductor

controller

85.0 90.0

Near-Term 4-speed transmission, 0.93 94.0 96.0

and Advanced clutch, axle

Source: W. Hamilton, Electric Automobiles, McGraw-Hill Book Company,

New York, 1980.

TABLE A.4

ROAD LOAD PARAMETERS FOR REPRESENTATIVE FUTURE VEHICLES

Rolling Resistance Coefficient: Near-Term - 1.18%

Advanced - 1.08%

Aerodynamic Drag Parameters:

Vehicle Drag Coefficient Frontal Area, ft 2

4-passenger car 0.35 20

5-passenger car 0.35 23

6-passenger car 0.35 26

Compact pickup 0.45 20

Compact van 0.40 30

Source: General Research Corporation

207
u)

. .

208
Hybrid cars were also analyzed using ELVEC and the assumptions

tabulated here, slightly modified to allow for the addition of a small

internal-combustion engine to the basic electric drive train. The

engine was sized to provide the power requirement at 55 mph cruise

(shown in Fig. A.1), plus a 25 percent reserve to overcome modest headwinds and grades without use of electric Power, and to permit battery

TEST WEIGHT, kg

60

50

u- 40

20

10

500 1000 1500 2000

I I I I I I I

“ ● 4-PASSENGER CAR

-

50

60 ● NEAR-TERM TECHNOLOGY

ACCELERATION - 20

(0-40 mph in 10 see)

.

. .

0

1 1 1 I I I 1

‘ o

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

TEST WEIGHT, Ibs

Figure A. 1 Power Requirements for Acceleration and

Cruise Versus Test Weight

recharging during cruise to assure sufficient electric capability for

occasional hills and bursts of acceleration. The near-term ICE was

assumed to weigh 5 pounds per horsepower and to consume 0.6 pounds of

gasoline per horsepower-hour. The fuel system was assumed to weigh 2

pounds per gallon of capacity, plus 6 pounds. For advanced ICE systems,

these weights and the fuel consumption were reduced 10 percent. Hybrid

vehicles were projected with the battery fractions and weights shown in

Table A. 6.

209
.

TABLE A. 6

BATTERY FRACTIONS AND WEIGHTS FOR FOUR-PASSENGER HYBRID CARS

Near-Term

Battery Fraction

Battery Weight, lb

Advanced

Battery Fraction

Battery Weight, lb

0.20 0.24 0.28 0.32

633 836 1086 1400

0.10 0.12 0.15

221 275 364

210
GLOSSARY

A-Weighted Sound Level. A system of measuring sound which emphasizes

sounds in the middle frequencies to which the human ear is most

responsive.

Advanced. A technology expected in this report to be commercially

available by the year 2000.

Aerodynamic Drag. The force exerted by the air on a vehicle moving

through it, opposing the motion of the vehicle.

Air Quality. A measure of the concentration of pollutants in the air.

Air Quality Control Regions (AQCR). A set of 248 regions, each covering

an area of relatively homogeneous air quality, defined by the Environmental Protection Agency for planning purposes.

AQCR. Air Quality Control Region.

Armature. The movable part of a motor consisting essentially of coils

of wire around an iron core.

Automotive Fuels. Liquids (or sometimes gases) which can be burned in

internal combustion engines to provide enough energy to propel an

automobile.

Available Capacity.

ating unit is

scheduled and

given time.

The portion of the average electric power a generexpected to be able to supply (after allowances for

unscheduled maintenance) which is not in use at a

Baseline. The projected level of activity in the absence of electric

and hybrid vehicles.

Base-Load Units. Those generating units of an electric power system

which are intended to provide power continuously to the “base

load” of the system (i.e., the load which is always present, even

during the hours of minimun demand).

Battery. A group of cells in which an electrochemical reaction occurs,

transferring ions between positive and negative electrodes through

an electrolyte to produce an electric current.

Battery Charger. A device which feeds electricity into a battery, for

storage in chemical form and later withdrawal as electric energy.

211
Battery Fraction. The ratio of propulsion battery weight to the test

weight of an electric vehicle, indicating the fraction of the

vehicle’s on-road weight devoted to the battery.

Battery Weight. The weight of the propulsion battery or battery pack in

an electric vehicle, including necessary interconnecting wiring

between cells or other modules, supporting trays and any associated insulation and container required for battery operation.

Biberonnage. The practice of recharging electric or hybrid vehicle

batteries in small amounts over short periods of time in various

locations whenever the vehicle is parked away from home base.

Brushes. Electrical conductors made of blocks of carbon that make

sliding contact between a stationary and a moving part of a motor.

CAFE. Corporate Average Fuel Economy.

Cartel. A coalition of independent commercial enterprises formed for

the purpose of limiting competition, controlling supplies or

regulating prices.

Cell. The basic unit of a battery consisting of a positive and a negative electrode connected by an electrolyte.

Chopper. A type of controller which periodically interrupts the flow of

electric current to reduce its average value to the desired level.

Clean Air Act. Federal law passed in 1970 mandating air quality standards and limiting the amount of permissible pollutant emissions

from various sources.

Commutator. A device which periodically reverses the direction of electric current in a motor as it revolves.

Continuous Duty Rating. The maximum power a motor car output continuously over a specified (extended) time period.

Controller. A device which regulates the amount of power flowing from

the battery to the motor in an electric vehicle, thereby regulating the speed and acceleration.

Conventional Vehicles. Vehicles powered by Otto-cycle internal combustion engines using gasoline for fuel, using transmissions,

tires, and materials typical of those used or confidently expected

in 1980.

Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE). The average miles per gallon

attained by all the cars sold by a manufacturer which must meet

federally mandated levels.

212
Curb Weight. The weight of a vehicle without driver, passengers or

payload, but otherwise ready for operation.

Decibel. A unit for measuring the relative loudness of sounds; equal

approximately to the smallest degree of difference of loudness

ordinarily detectable by the human ear, whose range includes about

130 decibels on a scale beginning with one for the faintest audible sound.

Discharge. The withdrawal or depletion of electrical energy stored in a

battery.

Dispatching Sequence. The order in which an electric utility uses the

different fuels available to generate additional electric power.

DOE. The United States Department of Energy.

Drive Train. The components of a vehicle which convert stored energy

into propulsive force, usually including an internal-combustion

engine or electric motor and its controller, a transmission and a

differential.

EHV. Electric and hybrid vehicles.

Electric Mode. The operation of a hybrid vehicle using only the

electric storage battery as a power source.

Electric Vehicles (EVs). Vehicles whose propulsion power is electricity

drawn from batteries.

Electricity Use of Electric Vehicles. The average electric energy input

to the battery charger per mile of driving.

Electrification of Travel. The accomplishing of travel using electric

vehicles, or hybrid vehicles operating on electricity alone,

rather than conventional vehicles.

Electrode. Positive or negative plates in a battery which emit or

accept ions during an electrochemical reaction.

Electrolyte. A non-metallic electric conductor in which current is

carried by the movement of ions between the positive and negative

electrodes in a battery.

Emissions. Substances released as a by-product of some activity.

Energy Efficiency. The percent of input energy which a device outputs

after internal energy losses.

EV. Electric vehicle.

213
Federal Noise Control Act. A national policy established in 1972 to

control the emissions of noise that are detrimental to human

health.

Fleet Fuel Economy. The average miles per gallon attained by a group of

vehicles.

Flywheel. A mechanical device for storing energy in a rotating wheel,

usually made of high-strength metals or reinforced plastics and

operated at high speed in an evacuated container.

Flywheel Hybrid. A vehicle which has incorporated into its propulsion

system a flywheel to store and deliver energy.

Fossil Fuel. A carbon based burnable material composed of animal or

plant matter which has decomposed in the earth’s crust over the

ages, such as oil or coal.

Friction Brakes. A device which slows the motion of a vehicle by mechanically applying friction to oppose the rotation of the wheels.

Fuel Economy. Miles traveled per gallon of fuel consumed.

Fuel Mix. The mix of fuels employed by electric utilities to generate

electricity.

Gross Vehicle Weight. The weight of the vehicle plus the weight of

maximum design payload.

HV. Hybrid vehicles.

Hybrid Vehicles (HVs). Vehicles equipped with two or more systems for

supplying propulsion power such as vehicles with both a batterypowered electric motor and an internal combustion engine.

ICE. Internal combustion engine; a vehicle whose only propulsion power

supply is an internal combustion engine.

Identified Resources. Specific bodies of mineral-bearing material whose

location, quality and quantity are known from geologic evidence

supported by engineering measurements.

Infrastructure. Basic institutions and facilities necessary for the

continuance and growth of electric and hybrid vehicle use.

Initial Cost. purchase price; the amount of money which must be

expended to obtain the vehicle.

214
Internal Combustion Engine (ICE). A source of power (for propulsion of

vehicles) in which power is supplied by piston movement caused by

the controlled explosion of gasoline or other fuel.

Kilowatt (kW) . The metric unit of power. It is 1000 times the work

done in one second by a force which will impart an acceleration of

one meter per second squared to a mass of one kilogram acting

through a distance of one meter. In electrical circuits, power in

kilowatts is given by the product of electromotive force and

current (volts times amps) divided by 1000.

Kilowatt-Hour (kWh) . The metric unit of energy. A kilowatt-hour is

3,600,000 times the work done by a force which will impart an

acceleration of one meter per second squared to a mass of one

kilogram acting through a distance of one meter.

Life-Cycle Cost. The expenditures required to purchase, operate, and

maintain a vehicle throughout its useful life, including cost of

capital.

Light-Duty Vehicles. Passenger automobiles and small vans and trucks

with gross weight ratings under 10,000 pounds.

Lena-Distance Travel. — — Generally inter-city travel of several hundred

miles or more.

Market Penetration. The

certain type.

Maximum Design Payload.

to safely carry.

percent of all vehicles sold which are of a

The heaviest weight which a vehicle is designed

Median Automotive passby Noise. Composite noise levels which average

sound emissions during cruise and acceleration conditions representative of urban driving.

Motor. A rotating machine that transforms electrical energy into

mechanical energy.

Near-Term. A technology expected in this report to be commercially

available in quantity by the year 1990.

Noise Pollution. Unwanted sound which interferes with human activity.

Nominal Range. The mileage rating of a vehicle; the approximate diStance which a vehicle will travel before refueling.

Off-Peak. A period of relatively low electricity demand as specified by

the supplier.

215
Off-Peak Electricity Prices. A lower rate charged for electricity

during periods of low demand.

Operating Cost. The cost of running and maintaining a vehicle throughout its life including charges for fuel, repair and maintenance,

insurance, garaging, parking, tolls, titling, registration, replacement of parts with shorter lives than the basic vehicle and

the cost of capital.

Operating Life. The period of time during which a device can function

normally.

Outdoor Day-Night Equivalent Sound Level. Average community noise

throughout a 24-hour day calculated by averaging the minute-tominute readings of an A-weighted sound level meter, with nighttime

readings increased 10 dB in recognition of the greater sensitivity

of typical activities to noise during these hours.

Parallel Hybrid. A hybrid vehicle where the internal-combustion engine

can drive the vehicle by a direct mechanical linkage to the wheels.

Peak Demand. The maximum amount of electricity required during a specified time period, usually the hour of greatest demand during a

calendar year.

Peaking Units. Those portions of a generating system used to supply

electric power only during daily periods of maximum demand.

Pollutant. That which makes substances physically impure or unclean.

Population-Weighted Average. A regional average in which the importance

of each sub-region’s value is proportional to its population. The

regional average is calculated by summing each sub-region value

multiplied by the sub-region population, then dividing by the

total regional population.

Potential Resources. Unspecified bodies of mineral-bearing material

surmised to exist on the basis of broad geologic knowledge and

theory.

Power. The time rate of transferring energy, equal to the current times

the voltage in an electric circuit. The metric unit of power is

the watt.

Power Plants. A location at which one or more electric power generating

units are located.

Primary Demand. The demand for newly-mined material as opposed to scrap

or recycled material.

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Propulsion Weight. Total weight of the propulsion components in an

electric, hybrid, or conventional vehicle, including propulsion

battery, electric motor, controller, gasoline tank and fuel, internal combustion engine, transmission, and differential.

Range-Extension Hybrid. A hybrid-electric vehicle with sufficient speed

and range on electric power alone for most driving, with a small

internal-combustion engine which can be started after battery depletion on long trips to extend highway cruising range.

RECAPS. Recharge Capacity Projection System.

Recharge. To feed electricity into a battery to renew its ability to be

used as an electric power source.

Recharge Capacity Projection System (RECAPS). A computer program which

projects the capacity of US electric utilities to generate additional power for recharging EHVs, and the fuels which would be

used to do it, based on existing and planned generating stations

and the hour-by-hour electricity demand projected for an entire

future year at each individual utility.

Recharge Electricity. Electricity fed into a battery to renew its

ability to be used as a power source.

Recharge Energy. The amount of energy used in feeding electricity into

a battery.

Recharger. A device which feeds electricity into a battery to restore

its ability to supply electric power.

Recoverable Resources. That portion of

which a useable mineral or energy

and legally extracted at the time

the identified resource from

commodity can be economically

of determination.

Regenerative Braking. A method of braking a moving vehicle in which the

electric motor acts as a generator, allowing the kinetic energy of

a vehicle during deceleration to be converted to electricity which

recharges the battery, avoiding loss of that energy as heat in

ordinary friction brakes.

Regional Emissions Projection System (REPS) . A computer model which

projects air pollution emissions by Air Quality Control Region.

REPS. Regional Emissions Projection System.

Resources. A concentration of naturally occurring solid, liquid or

gaseous materials in or on the earth’s crust in such a form that

economic extraction of a commodity is currently or potentially

feasible.

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Road Load. The amount of force which must be applied to a vehicle to

overcome the aerodynamic drag, rolling resistance, gravity and

inertia. The total resistance to forward motion of a vehicle due

to rolling resistance, aerodynamic drag, gravity (on inclined

roadways) , and inertia (during acceleration) , which must be overcome by propulsive forces.

Rolling Resistance. The amount of force which must be applied to the

vehicle to overcome the forces of friction in the tires and wheel

bearings.

SEAS. Strategic Environmental Assessment System.

Selective Load Control. Remote control of selected classes of electrical equipment or appliances, exercised by a utility to reduce

total demand and thus avoid blackouts when available generating

capacity is inadequate; ordinarily applied briefly to non-critical

devices such as electric hot water heaters or air conditioners, at

households agreeing to such interruptions in exchange for reduced

electricity rates.

Series Hybrid. A hybrid vehicle in which the engine drives a generator

which in turn drives the electric motor or charges the battery.

specific cost. Cost per unit weight measured in dollars per kilogram.

Specific Energy. Energy per unit weight.

Specific Power. Power per unit weight.

Sticker Price. Suggested retail price.

Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS). A computer model

developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency to assess the

impact of various environment-related policies on the economy and

the environment, both in terms of dollar changes in gross national

product and pollutant tonnages released into the biosphere.

Structure and Chassis Weight. The weight of the structure, suspension,

tires, wheels, and other components which must carry the weight of

the upper body, battery, propulsion system and payload.

Surface Transportation Vehicle. Any vehicle capable of carrying people

or loads which moves across the ground.

Test Weight. The curb weight of a vehicle, plus a payload of plus 300

pounds (the conventional assumption for the weight of two average

occupants) .

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Thermal Pollution. The introduction of hotter or colder elements into a

substance causing an unwanted change in the substance's normal

temperature.

Upper Body Weight. Weight of the passenger compartment, seats, instruments, heating and ventilation, and body panels.

Urban Driving Range. The distance a vehicle travels between refueling

or recharges in stop/start city traffic; usually tested in a

specific driving schedule chosen to be representative of urban

driving conditions.

Windings. Material, such as wire, wound or coiled about an object, such

as an armature in a motor.

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