January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 3
4 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

Flight Class A Mishap Rates Flight Class A Mishap Rates

FY93-FY02 FY93-FY02

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0

U-2

T-43

T-38

T-37

T-6

T-1

H-60

H-53

H-1

A-10

F-117

F-16

F-15

E-8

E-4

E-3

C-141

C-135

C-130

C-21

C-20

C-17 C-17

C-12 C-12

KC-10

C-9 C-9

C-5

B-52

B-2

B-1

6.51 6.51

1.57 1.57

0.45 0.45

0.35 0.35

2.17 2.17

0.00 0.00

3.46 3.46

6.49 6.49

2.84 2.84

1.94 1.94

4.62 4.62

3.35 3.35

2.04 2.04

3.75 3.75

13.50 13.50

0.43 0.43

0.27 0.27

0.09 0.09

0.42 0.42

0.42 0.42

0.00 0.00

1.22 1.22

0.00 0.00

0.76 0.76

0.44 0.44

0.45 0.45

0.72 0.72

0.00 0.00

1.54 1.54

Mishap rates calculated for B-2, T-6, E-4 and E-8 aircraft are

based on small data sets (two or fewer events and less than

50,000 flying hours for the 10-year period). The listed rate

therefore has low statistical confidence. These rates may

vary significantly as more flying time is accumulated.

The F-22 is not included since it is not yet operational.

The aircraft designations listed include all aircraft sharing the

same airframe (e.g., C-130 includes AC-130, MC-130, etc.).

1.

2.

3.

Notes: Notes:

1.

2.

3.
Mishap costs. Three methods are defined for determining the mishap cost - Acquisition Cost, Replacement Cost, or Repair Cost.

The method used varies with the mishap and the equipment involved. In addition, the Class C threshold was increased from $10,000

to $20,000 in Mar 01. Fatality and injury costs are based upon standardized DoD cost factors (baselined to FY88).

Mishap rates. Aircraft Flight and UAV mishap rates are calculated per 100,000 flying hours. Ground mishap rates are calculated per

100,000 personnel.

Aviation mishap terms:

Destroyed aircraft includes only USAF aircraft.

Fatalities include all DoD service members, foreign military members and civilians killed in USAF aircraft flight mishaps.

Ground mishap terms:

PMV-2 - Private Motor Vehicle with 2 wheels (motorcycles).

PMV-4 - Private Motor Vehicle with 4 or more wheels (cars, trucks, etc.).

Additional category-specific notes and definitions are provided at the end of each section.

Data used in this analysis is derived from mishap reports submitted in accordance with AFI 91-204, Safety Investigations and Reports. For

more detailed explanation of terms, definitions, mishap cost calculations and classifications, see AFI 91-204.

January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 5

The 3 mishap classes addressed in

this analysis are:

Class A: Destruction of an Air Force aircraft; a fatality or permanent total disability; or total mishap cost

of $1,000,000 or more.

Class B: A permanent partial disability; inpatient

hospitalization of three or more personnel; or total

mishap cost of $200,000 but less than $1,000,000.

Class C: An injury resulting in a lost workday case or

total mishap cost of $20,000 but less than $200,000.

This analysis includes 3 broad categories of

mishaps:

Aviation – Aircraft (Flight, Flight-related, Ground Ops); Unmanned Aerial

Vehicle (UAV); and Non-DoD Aviation mishaps.

Ground – On-Duty and Industrial; Motor Vehicle; Off-Duty Military; Fire and

Maritime mishaps.

Space, Explosives, and Missiles – Explosive - mishap involving conventional explosives or chemical agents; Missile - mishap involving tactical or training

missiles, ICBMs; or sub-scale remotely piloted vehicles (RPVs); Space -

mishap involving space systems and/or unique space support equipment.
6 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003
9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 0202

0.00 0.00

0.25 0.25

0.50 0.50

0.75 0.75

1.00 1.00

1.25 1.25

1.75 1.75

1.50 1.50

2.00 2.00

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

1.24 1.24

1.39 1.39

1.60 1.60 1.55 1.55 1.53 1.53

1.16 1.16 1.13 1.13

1.52 1.52

1.42 1.42 

1.18 1.18

9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 0202

0.00 0.00

0.50 0.50

1.00 1.00

1.50 1.50

2.00 2.00

2.50 2.50

3.50 3.50

3.00 3.00

4.00 4.00

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

0.69 0.69

0.71 0.71

4.08 4.08

1.22 1.22

0.75 0.75

3.63 3.63

2.21 2.21

3.30 3.30

1.04 1.04

0.85 0.85

9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 0202

0.00 0.00

5.00 5.00

10.00 10.00

15.00 15.00

20.00 20.00

25.00 25.00

35.00 35.00

30.00 30.00

40.00 40.00

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

26.41 26.41

33.69 33.69

28.25 28.25 

27.67 27.67

31.51 31.51

13.26 13.26

19.49 19.49

11.37 11.37

26.80 26.80

23.49 23.49

Flight Mishap

Rates

Flight Mishap

Rates

Class B Class B

Class C Class C

Class A Class A

January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 7

See additional note on page 23.
8 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

Fatalities

Mishaps

10 Year Totals

243 Destroyed AF Acft

310 Fatalities

$6.23 Billion

Destroyed AF Acft 36

Cost in $M (FY01 $)

35 29 20 24 20 25 14 21 19

$806.7 $729.0 $638.9 $412.2 $792.8 $713.2 $645.1 $284.9 $384.5 $820.3

Flight Class A Mishaps and Costs Flight Class A Mishaps and Costs

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

0

10

20

30

40

60

50

Mi

s

haps/Fatalitie

s Mishaps/Fatalities

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year
Operations – Primarily attributed to deficiencies involving flying operations, to include air traffic control, operational guidance, flight

crew training, and flying supervision.

Logistics/Maintenance – Primarily attributed to deficiencies involving the design, manufacture, overhaul, repair, maintenance, or

servicing of aircraft.

Miscellaneous – Primarily attributed to wildlife strikes, effects of environment or weather, or where insufficient information exists to

otherwise attribute. 

Ops

Log/Mx

Misc

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

R

ate R

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Flight Class A Mishap Rates Flight Class A Mishap Rates

by Primary Attribute by Primary Attribute

January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 9

Definitions:

Operations

Logistics/Maintenance

Miscellaneous

See additional note on page 23.
10 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

Reserve

AF Rate

Active Duty

Guard

Service 10 Year Mishap Rate

1.38

1.41

1.35

1.08

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

R

ate R

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Reserve/Guard/Active Duty Reserve/Guard/Active Duty

 Flight Class A Mishap Rates Flight Class A Mishap Rates

See additional note on page 23.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100 100 120 120 140 140

00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060 7070

$0$0 $500 $500 $1,000 $1,000

FY01 $M FY01 $M

$1,500 $1,500 $2,000 $2,000 $2,500 $2,500

Midair Collision Midair Collision

Taxi, Takeoff & Landing Taxi, Takeoff & Landing

Wildlife Strike Wildlife Strike

Fuel-Related Fuel-Related

Other Other

Cabin/Cargo Cabin/Cargo

Environment/ Weather Environment/ Weather

Loss of Control In-flight Loss of Control In-flight

AAcft cft System (Non-Powerplant) System (Non-Powerplant)

Controlled Flight Into Terrain Controlled Flight Into Terrain

Powerplant Powerplant

Midair Collision Midair Collision

Taxi, Takeoff & Landing Taxi, Takeoff & Landing

Wildlife Strike Wildlife Strike

Fuel-Related Fuel-Related

Other Other

Cabin/Cargo Cabin/Cargo

Environment/ Weather Environment/ Weather

Loss of Control In-flight Loss of Control In-flight

Acft System (Non-Powerplant) Acft System (Non-Powerplant)

Controlled Flight Into Terrain Controlled Flight Into Terrain

Powerplant Powerplant

Midair Collision Midair Collision

Taxi, Takeoff & Landing Taxi, Takeoff & Landing

Wildlife Strike Wildlife Strike

Fuel-Related Fuel-Related

Cabin/Cargo Cabin/Cargo

Environment/ Weather Environment/ Weather

Loss of Control In-flight Loss of Control In-flight

Acft System (Non-Powerplant) Acft System (Non-Powerplant)

Controlled Flight Into Terrain Controlled Flight Into Terrain

Powerplant Powerplant

Midair Collision Midair Collision

Taxi, Takeoff & Landing Taxi, Takeoff & Landing

Wildlife Strike Wildlife Strike

Fuel-Related Fuel-Related

Cabin/Cargo Cabin/Cargo

Environment/ Weather Environment/ Weather

Loss of Control In-flight Loss of Control In-flight

Acft System (Non-Powerplant) Acft System (Non-Powerplant)

Controlled Flight Into Terrain Controlled Flight Into Terrain

Powerplant Powerplant

Other Other

Other Other

By Type and # of Mishaps By Type and # of Mishaps By Type and # of Destroyed Acft By Type and # of Destroyed Acft

By Type and # of Fatalities By Type and # of Fatalities By Type and Cost By Type and Cost

Flight Class A Mishaps Flight Class A Mishaps

FY93-FY02 FY93-FY02

January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 11
12 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

Destroyed AF Acft 9

Cost in $M (FY01 $)

6 10 6 7 3 9 3 7 3

$119.6 $116.3 $193.2 $145.4 $149.5 $82.4 $195.3 $69.6 $145.4 $66.8

Fatalities

Mishaps

10 Year Totals

63 Destroyed AF Acft

10 Fatalities

$1.28 Billion

0

6

8

10

12

14

16

4

2

Powerplant Powerplant

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Mi

s

haps/Fatalitie

s Mishaps/Fatalities

Definition: Failure or malfunction of an aircraft thrust-producing system or related component.

See additional notes on page 23.
January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 13

Destroyed AF Acft 11

Cost in $M (FY01 $)

773653368

$453.7 $187.4 $166.6 $57.5 $386.2 $93.3 $81.4 $62.7 $138.6 $316.6

Fatalities

Mishaps

10 Year Totals

59 Destroyed AF Acft

132 Fatalities

$1.94 Billion

5

10

25

40

50

Controlled Flight into Terrain Controlled Flight into Terrain

0

15

20

30

35

45

Mi

s

haps/Fatalitie

s Mishaps/Fatalities

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Definition: In-flight collision with terrain, water, trees, or a man-made obstacle during forward flight.

See additional notes on page 23.
14 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

2 44 31 3 3 011

$42.1 $23.1 $65.6 $64.5 $59.2 $359.5 $94.8 $16.0 $9.7 $52.3

Destroyed AF Acft 

Cost in $M (FY01 $)

Aircraft Systems (Non-Powerplant) Aircraft Systems (Non-Powerplant)

0

1

2

3

4

8

6

5

7

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Mi

s

haps/Fatalitie

s Mishaps/Fatalities

Fatalities

Mishaps

10 Year Totals

22 Destroyed AF Acft

8 Fatalities

$786 Million

Definition: Failure or malfunction of an aircraft system or component–other than the powerplant.

See additional notes on page 23.
January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 15

2446231324

$19.6 $64.9 $93.7 $96.2 $23.4 $74.2 $10.9 $35.8 $11.7 $345.9

Destroyed AF Acft 

Cost in $M (FY01 $)

Loss of Control In-Flight Loss of Control In-Flight

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Mi

s

haps/Fatalitie

s Mishaps/Fatalities

0

2

4

6

8

12

10

Fatalities

Mishaps

10 Year Totals

31 Destroyed AF Acft

22 Fatalities

$776 Million

Definition: Loss of aircraft control while in flight.

See additional notes on page 23.
16 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

Destroyed AF Acft 

Cost in $M (FY01 $)

5810347252

$96.3 $151.4 $20.7 $0 $81.3 $62.6 $217.1 $46.2 $74.6 $25.5

Midair Collisions Midair Collisions

0

5

10

15

20

35

30

25

Mi

s

haps/Fatalitie

s Mishaps/Fatalities

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Fatalities

Mishaps

10 Year Totals

37 Destroyed AF Acft

90 Fatalities

$776 Million

Definition: Collision between aircraft when intent for flight exists.

See additional notes on page 23.
January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 17

1311311001

$10.4 $77.3 $1.7 $27.7 $29.0 $22.2 $24.3 $1.9 $0 $10.8

Destroyed AF Acft 

Cost in $M (FY01 $)

Taxi, Takeoff & Landing Taxi, Takeoff & Landing

0

1

2

3

4

6

5

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Mi

s

haps/Fatalitie

s Mishaps/Fatalities

Fatalities

Mishaps

10 Year Totals

12 Destroyed AF Acft

5 Fatalities

$205 Million

Definition: Occurrences during takeoff, landing or other powered aircraft movement on prepared surfaces.

See additional note on page 23.
18 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

3110010100

$13.4 $10.1 $97.4 $0 $0 $19.0 $0 $25.8 $4.5 $2.4

Destroyed AF Acft 

Cost in $M (FY01 $)

Wildlife Strike Wildlife Strike

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Mi

s

haps/Fatalitie

s Mishaps/Fatalities

0

5

10

15

20

30

25

Fatalities

Mishaps

10 Year Totals

7 Destroyed AF Acft

24 Fatalities

$173 Million

Definition: Collision with bird or other animal.

See additional notes on page 23.
January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 19

3111200200

$51.8 $20.8 $0 $18.8 $61.5 $0 $0 $25.4 $0 $0

Destroyed AF Acft 

Cost in $M (FY01 $)

Fuel-Related Fuel-Related

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Mi

s

haps/Fatalitie

s Mishaps/Fatalities

0

2

4

6

8

12

10

Fatalities

Mishaps

10 Year Totals

10 Destroyed AF Acft

10 Fatalities

$178 Million

Definition: One or more powerplants experienced reduced or no power output due to a fuel anomaly.

See additional notes on page 23.
20 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

Destroyed RQ-1s 1

Cost in $M

02135

Destroyed RQ-4s 001002

$3.1 $0 $49.0 $9.0 $7.9 $95.6

UAV Mishap Data UAV Mishap Data

86.8

0.0

38.8

23.1

46.4

32.8

97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Mishaps Mishaps

0

1

2

3

4

6

5

RQ-1 Rate

RQ-1 Predator

RQ-4 Global Hawk

6 Year Totals

16 Destroyed Vehicles

$165 Million

(Mishap rate not available)

Note: UAV mishaps do not count toward the aircraft flight Class A mishap rate.
January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 21

Multi-Service Fighter/Attack Multi-Service Fighter/Attack

Flight Class A Mishap Rates Flight Class A Mishap Rates

98 99 00 01 02

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

6.0

7.0

5.0

Rate

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

USAF

USN

USMC

Note: Includes fixed-wing fighter/attack aircraft only. USAF includes F-15, F-16, F-117 and A/OA-10 only.
Aviation Summary

• Historical trend positive but little improvement in past

decade

• Losses in the past 10 years unacceptably high

• Destroyed equivalent of 1 squadron of aircraft (24.3) per year

• Lost an average of $623M in AF resources per year

• Killed an average of 31 people each year

• Controlled Flight into Terrain takes greatest toll

• Average 6 destroyed aircraft per year

• Average 13 fatalities per year

• Undesired trend reversal in last 2 fiscal years

• Number of Class A mishaps, rates, and fatalities are rising

• Corrective measures need to target the big drivers

22 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

Aviation Summary

• Historical trend positive but little improvement in past

decade

• Losses in the past 10 years unacceptably high

• Destroyed equivalent of 1 squadron of aircraft (24.3) per year

• Lost an average of $623M in AF resources per year

• Killed an average of 31 people each year

• Controlled Flight into Terrain takes greatest toll

• Average 6 destroyed aircraft per year

• Average 13 fatalities per year

• Undesired trend reversal in last 2 fiscal years

• Number of Class A mishaps, rates, and fatalities are rising

• Corrective measures need to target the big drivers
Notes:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

Notes:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

P. 7. Recent Class B spike is attributed primarily to efforts to improve reporting of damaged asset mishaps, especially in aircraft engines.

Improved reporting has identified previously neglected problems. Decline in FY01-02 indicates those problems are now being addressed.

P. 9. An unusually high number of fighter powerplant-related mishaps drove the Log/Mx rate higher in FY99. Flight crews pressing for mission accomplishment despite high operational risk factors drove an Ops rate spike in FY02. Helicopters accounted for 9 of 25 Ops mishaps.

P. 10. The relatively low AF Reserve flight hours cause their five mishaps in FY97 and four in FY98 to show as a large spike in their rate.

These nine mishaps were all unrelated, indicating no discernible trend.

Pp. 12-19. The mishap type is generally the precipitating event, the predominant factor contributing to the severity of the mishap, or the

category that best describes the overall mishap. It is not the cause of the mishap. 

P. 12. Powerplant. Seven similar fighter engine mishaps, with two main causes, drove the FY99 spike. A C-130 mishap accounted for six

fatalities in FY95.

P. 13. Controlled Flight into Terrain. The FY93 spike in fatalities was driven by an H-60 mishap (12 fatalities) and a C-130 mishap (6 fatalities). In FY96, 35 fatalities occurred in a T-43 mishap. Cost spikes in FY93 and FY97 were the result of B-1 mishaps. Three C-130 mishaps

caused the high cost in FY02.

P. 14. Aircraft Systems (Non-Powerplant). A B-1 mishap accounted for $283M of the FY98 costs.

P. 15. Loss of Control In-flight. In FY95, eight fatalities resulted from a C-21 mishap. A B-1 mishap accounted for $293M in FY02.

P. 16. Midair Collisions. An FY93 midair between two C-141s resulted in 13 fatalities. An F-16/C-130 midair with 23 ground fatalities drove

the FY94 spike. All 33 fatalities in FY97 resulted from a C-141/Tu-154 mishap. There were 12 fatalities in an FY98 midair between two H60s. Three F-15/F-15 mishaps drove up FY99 costs by $169M.

P. 18. Wildlife Strike. An FY95 E-3 mishap accounted for all 24 fatalities and an $83M loss.

P. 19. Fuel-Related. A C-130 mishap accounted for all 10 fatalities in FY97. The FY95 destroyed aircraft was a Civil Air Patrol Cessna

mishap with a $17K cost.

January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 23
24 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003
9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 0202

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 0202

0.00 0.00

1.00 1.00

2.00 2.00

3.00 3.00

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 0202

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

5.00 5.00

6.00 6.00

4.00 4.00

300.00 300.00

450.00 450.00

600.00 600.00

750.00 750.00

5.00 5.00

0.00 0.00

10.00 10.00

15.00 15.00

20.00 20.00

11.29 11.29

14.30 14.30

10.35 10.35

16.16 16.16

15.13 15.13

11.93 11.93 11.94 11.94

16.29 16.29

13.08 13.08

10.26 10.26

589.78 589.78

712.46 712.46

476.21 476.21

614.24 614.24

712.57 712.57

496.81 496.81

525.12 525.12

507.73 507.73 498.32 498.32

501.57 501.57

3.02 3.02

5.66 5.66

2.63 2.63

4.26 4.26

1.93 1.93

4.14 4.14

5.08 5.08

4.74 4.74

2.52 2.52

3.73 3.73

Ground Mishap

Rates

Ground Mishap

Rates

Class B Class B

Class C Class C

Class A Class A

January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 25

See additional note on page 33.
26 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

Cost in $M $32 $103 $29 $20 $18 $24 $68 $21 $20 $11

Ground Class A Mishaps and Costs Ground Class A Mishaps and Costs

 On- and Off-Duty On- and Off-Duty

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Mi

s

haps/Fatalitie

s Mishaps/Fatalities

0

25

50

75

100

125

Fatalities

Off-Duty

On-Duty

10 Year Totals

711 Fatalities

$346 Million

Note: Costs are based on the direct personnel values and actual property costs, IAW AFI 91-204.

See additional notes on page 33.
January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 27

Ground Fatalities and Fatality Rates Ground Fatalities and Fatality Rates

On-Duty (Military and Civilian) On-Duty (Military and Civilian)

Rat

e Rat

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

F

atalities Fatalities

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Rate

Fatalities
28 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

0

10

30

50

70

90

20

40

60

80

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ground Fatalities and Fatality Rates Ground Fatalities and Fatality Rates

Off-Duty (Military Only) Off-Duty (Military Only)

Rat

e Rat

F

atalities Fatalities

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Rate

Fatalities
January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 29

68%

5%

13%

3%

11%

Ground Fatalities by Sub-Type Ground Fatalities by Sub-Type

FY93-FY02 FY93-FY02

Motor Vehicles Motor Vehicles

Misc (Off) Misc (Off)

Sports & Rec Sports & Rec

Pedestrian Pedestrian

Industrial (On) Industrial (On)
30 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

Off-Duty PMV4 vs PMV2 Fatalities Off-Duty PMV4 vs PMV2 Fatalities

35

31

43

37

52

16 19

25

49

46

26

9

9 8

15

7

15 13

11 11

Fatalities Fatalities

0

10

20

30

40

60

50

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

PMV4

PMV2
January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 31

PMV Mishap Factors - FY02 PMV Mishap Factors - FY02

Alcohol

(19)

Darkness Darkness

(31)

Speed

(37)

12

9

4 13

0 3

2

PMV4

Proficiency Proficiency

(10)

Darkness Darkness

(4)

Speed

(10)

1

2

0 2

4 5

1

PMV2
32 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

On-Duty/Off-Duty Ground Mishap On-Duty/Off-Duty Ground Mishap

Divergence Divergence

97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Misha

p

s Mishaps

150

200

250

300

350

550

450

500

400

Off-Duty

On-Duty

See additional note on page 33.
1.

2.

3.

4.

Ground Summary

• The 10-year analysis of ground mishaps shows:

• 711 AF personnel were killed–average 8 on-duty, 63 off-duty fatalities per year

• Male, 18-25 age group is major “at risk” category for PMV mishaps

• Average yearly direct Class A cost to the AF is $34.6M

• Declining trends in all 3 classes of mishaps

• In past 5 years, trends are increasing

• PMV mishaps are the cause for the Class A increases

• Poor risk decisions, faulty judgment are major causal factors

• Roughly 2/3 of PMV accidents due to poor judgment

• Any combination of alcohol, speed, and darkness increases risk

• Lack of proficiency is a major factor in motorcycle mishaps

Notes:

Ground Summary

• The 10-year analysis of ground mishaps shows:

• 711 AF personnel were killed–average 8 on-duty, 63 off-duty fatalities per year

• Male, 18-25 age group is major “at risk” category for PMV mishaps

• Average yearly direct Class A cost to the AF is $34.6M

• Declining trends in all 3 classes of mishaps

• In past 5 years, trends are increasing

• PMV mishaps are the cause for the Class A increases

• Poor risk decisions, faulty judgment are major causal factors

• Roughly 2/3 of PMV accidents due to poor judgment

• Any combination of alcohol, speed, and darkness increases risk

• Lack of proficiency is a major factor in motorcycle mishaps

Notes:

P. 25. The 10-year declining trend in Class C mishaps is in concert with the national trend for decreasing occupational mishaps, generally

attributed to the maturation of occupational safety requirements and technologies.

P. 26. The large mishap cost in FY94 resulted from a KC-135 fire which destroyed the aircraft. This mishap also took 6 lives, explaining the

large increase in FY94 on p. 27.

P. 26. A KC-135 over-pressurization and a C-17 landing gear mishap caused the large cost increase seen in FY99.

P. 32. The reason for this divergence is not known. A possible explanation is the growing tendency among young people to accept high risk. In

the off-duty environment, young AF members have much more opportunity to engage in high-risk activities. Planned study efforts will attempt to

validate cause factors.

January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 33

1.

2.

3.

4.
34 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003
9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 0202

Mishaps Mishaps

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 0202

Mishaps Mishaps

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 0202

Mishaps Mishaps

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Class B Class B

Class C Class C

Class A Class A

Space, Explosive

and Missile

Mishaps

Space, Explosive

and Missile

Mishaps

00224466

1010

121288

00

1010

2020

303055

1515

2525220044668811335577

66

33

66

55

77

55

55

44

33

00

1919

2020

2424

2020

2121

2525 2525

2222

1515

1111

55

88

44

55

55

77

77

1010

22

33

January 2003 

● AIR FORCE SAFETY 35

See additional notes on page 37.
36 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

$987.7 $33.5 $46.5 $50.8 $50.8 $543.5 $2,019.1 $0 $42.0 $0

$0 $0.5 $0.7 $0 $0 $0.1 $0 $0 $0 $0

$46.6 $2.4 $7.0 $11.3 $3.3 $26.1 $12.8 $34.0 $63.0 $0

Space

Explosives

Missiles

Cost in $M (FY01 $)

Space, Explosives and Missiles Space, Explosives and Missiles

Class A Mishaps and Costs Class A Mishaps and Costs

0

1

2

3

4

8

6

7

5

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

Mi

s

haps/Fatalitie

s Mishaps/Fatalities

Fatalities

Missiles

Space

Explosives

10 Year Totals

3 Fatalities

$3.98 Billion

See additional note on page 37.
Space, Explosives, and Missiles Summary

• Space, explosive, and missile mishap rates decreasing

• Emphasis on mishap prevention

• Solid, institutionalized risk management philosophy

• Mature system safety approach

• Procedures are prescriptive and enforced

Notes:

1.

2.

3.

Space, Explosives, and Missiles Summary

• Space, explosive, and missile mishap rates decreasing

• Emphasis on mishap prevention

• Solid, institutionalized risk management philosophy

• Mature system safety approach

• Procedures are prescriptive and enforced

Notes:

P. 35. Fifteen of the total FY96 to FY99 Class A mishaps were BQM-106A/B mishaps, predominately due to fin anomalies.

P. 35. Between FY97 and FY00, 18 of the Class B mishaps involved missiles, with AIM-120 test-environment failures accounting for half.

P. 36. The large space mishap costs were total losses associated with launch and orbital failures: 1993 Titan launch explosion; 1998 Titan/payload destruction; 1999 Titan upper-stage failure and Delta II 2nd-stage failure resulting in missed orbits.

January 2003 AIR FORCE SAFETY 37

1.

2.

3.
Last 10 Years at a Glance

• 1,024 lives lost in AF mishaps

• One preventable death every 3.5 days

• 243 aircraft destroyed

• One preventable Class A mishap every 15 days

• $10.6B in total mishap costs

• $2.9 million per day

Last 10 Years at a Glance

• 1,024 lives lost in AF mishaps

• One preventable death every 3.5 days

• 243 aircraft destroyed

• One preventable Class A mishap every 15 days

• $10.6B in total mishap costs

• $2.9 million per day

38 AIR FORCE SAFETY January 2003

* Military Only

Flight

Category

Class A Mishaps

FY02 10 Yr Avg FY02 vs 10 Yr Avg

Ground (On-Duty)

Ground (Off-Duty)*

Space, Expl & Missiles

+ 15.9%

 - 24.4%

 - 100.0%

84 69.0 + 21.7%

30.2

11.9

4.4

35

9

0

Total 128 115.5 + 10.8%

* Military Only

Flight

Category

Fatalities

FY02 10 Yr Avg FY02 vs 10 Yr Avg

Ground (On-Duty)

Ground (Off-Duty)*

Space, Expl & Missiles

- 29.0%

- 2.4%

- 100.0%

83 62.9 + 32.0%

31.0

8.2

0.3

22

8

0

Total + 10.4% 113 102.4
January 2003 ● AIR FORCE SAFETY 39

Additional mishap statistical data is available at the Air Force Safety Center’s web site at: http://safety.kirtland.af.mil/

This report presents a 10-year analysis of US Air Force

mishap experience and is intended to support targeted

prevention efforts.

The AF will expand on this examination and identify

opportunities to achieve a world class safety culture.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

George Santayana (1863-1952)

Additional mishap statistical data is available at the Air Force Safety Center’s web site at: http://safety.kirtland.af.mil/

This report presents a 10-year analysis of US Air Force

mishap experience and is intended to support targeted

prevention efforts.

The AF will expand on this examination and identify

opportunities to achieve a world class safety culture.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

George Santayana (1863-1952)