San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

i. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Table of Contents

Acronyms

Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 The Valley’s Unique Challenges ....................................................... 1-2

1.2 PM2.5 and Associated Health Impacts ............................................. 1-4

1.3 National Ambient Air Quality Standards ............................................ 1-7

1.3.1 EPA’s Standard-Setting Process........................................ 1-7

1.3.2 Federal PM2.5 Standards and Implementation .................. 1-8

1.3.3 State Standards.................................................................. 1-11

1.4 Public Process of Plan Development ................................................ 1-12

Chapter 2: Risk-Based Strategy

2.1 What is the Risk-based Strategy?..................................................... 2-1

2.2 Background for the Risk-Based Strategy .......................................... 2-2

2.3 How is the Risk-Based Strategy being Incorporated into this Plan?.. 2-5

2.4 Five-Factor Exposure Assessment Methodology .............................. 2-6

2.4.1 Relevance to Attainment .................................................... 2-7

2.4.2 Toxicity of Chemical Species.............................................. 2-7

2.4.3 Particle Size and Deposition............................................... 2-14

2.4.4 Exposure to Ultrafine Particles (PM 0.1) ............................ 2-17

2.4.5 Population Proximity and Intake Fraction ........................... 2-18

2.5 Health Benefits Achieved Through 2012 PM2.5 Plan ....................... 2-20

Chapter 3: Air Quality in the San Joaquin Valley: Challenges & Trends

3.1 Challenges of the Natural Environment............................................. 3-1

3.1.1 Unique Climate and Geography ......................................... 3-1

3.1.2 Valley Carrying Capacity .................................................... 3-4

3.2 PM2.5 Emissions Inventory Trends................................................... 3-5

3.3 PM2.5 Air Quality Trends .................................................................. 3-8

3.3.1 Air Monitoring Network ....................................................... 3-8

3.3.2 Air Quality Progress ........................................................... 3-9

Chapter 4: Scientific Foundation and PM2.5 Modeling Results

4.1 Air Quality Research ......................................................................... 4-1

4.2 The Nature and Formation of PM2.5................................................. 4-3

4.3 PM2.5 Species in the San Joaquin Valley......................................... 4-3

4.4 Scientific Foundation for the 2012 PM2.5 Plan ................................. 4-5

4.4.1 Ammonia Contribution to PM2.5 Concentrations................ 4-6

4.4.2 VOC Contribution to PM2.5 Concentrations ....................... 4-12

4.4.3 Geologic Contribution to PM2.5 Concentrations................. 4-13
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4.4.4 Organic Carbon Formation: Summary of Research

Findings.............................................................................. 4-14

4.4.5 Controlling Organic Aerosol under the Risk-Based

Strategy.............................................................................. 4-20

4.4.6 Condensable Particulates................................................... 4-22

4.5 Projected Future Air Quality and Identifying the Goal ....................... 4-22

4.5.1 Modeling Overview............................................................. 4-22

4.5.2 Measuring the Benefit of Control Measure Reductions ...... 4-24

4.5.3 Modeling Requirements...................................................... 4-25

4.5.4 Base and Future Years for Modeling.................................. 4-25

4.5.5 Air Quality and Meteorological Models ............................... 4-26

4.5.6 Modeling Domains.............................................................. 4-27

Chapter 5: Control Strategy

5.1 Comprehensive Regulatory Control Strategy .................................... 5-1

5.1.1 District Regulations Contributing to Continued PM2.5

Improvement ...................................................................... 5-2

5.1.2 ARB Regulations Contributing to Continued PM2.5

Improvement ...................................................................... 5-10

5.1.3 District VOC Regulations.................................................... 5-17

5.1.4 District Ammonia Regulations ............................................ 5-18

5.2 Evaluating Control Measures for New Control Strategy 

Opportunities..................................................................................... 5-19

5.2.1 Evaluation of Control Measures ......................................... 5-19

5.2.2 Control Strategy Commitments .......................................... 5-21

5.3 New Control Measures...................................................................... 5-21

5.3.1 Regulatory Control Measure Commitments........................ 5-21

5.3.2 Rule Development Process ................................................ 5-23

5.3.3 Further Study Measures..................................................... 5-24

5.4 Additional Control Strategies............................................................. 5-29

5.4.1 Energy Efficiency................................................................ 5-29

5.4.2 Eco-driving ......................................................................... 5-29

Chapter 6: Incentive Programs

6.1 Incentive Funding.............................................................................. 6-2

6.1.1 Funding Sources ................................................................ 6-2

6.1.2 Incentive Strategy............................................................... 6-3

6.1.3 Statutory Constraints on Incentive Funding........................ 6-4

6.2 SIP Creditability of Incentive Programs (Rule 9610) ......................... 6-5

6.3 Current District Programs.................................................................. 6-6

6.3.1 Heavy-Duty Trucks............................................................. 6-6

6.3.2 Agricultural Pumping Engines ............................................ 6-7

6.3.3 Agricultural Equipment ....................................................... 6-7

6.3.4 Locomotives ....................................................................... 6-8

6.3.5 Forklifts............................................................................... 6-9

6.3.6 School Bus Replacement and Retrofit................................ 6-10
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6.3.7 Community Incentives ........................................................ 6-10

6.4 New Potential Incentive Programs .................................................... 6-13

Chapter 7: Technology Advancement

7.1 Technology Focus Areas .................................................................. 7-1

7.2 Future Demonstration Projects.......................................................... 7-2

7.3 Demonstration Projects in Process ................................................... 7-2

7.4 Interagency Collaborative Demonstration Projects ........................... 7-7

Chapter 8: Legislative Strategy and Community Outreach

8.1 Legislative Strategy........................................................................... 8-1

8.1.1 Incentive Funding ............................................................... 8-2

8.1.2 Risk-based Strategy ........................................................... 8-2

8.1.3 Lower Mobile Source Emissions ........................................ 8-2

8.1.4 Energy Efficiency and Clean Energy Alternatives .............. 8-3

8.1.5 Reduce Public Health Impacts from Wildfires..................... 8-4

8.2 Community Outreach ........................................................................ 8-5

8.2.1 Real-Time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) ........................... 8-5

8.2.2 Real-Time Outdoor Activity Risk (ROAR)........................... 8-6

8.2.3 Air Quality Flag Program .................................................... 8-6

8.2.4 Check Before You Burn...................................................... 8-6

8.2.5 Healthy Air Living ............................................................... 8-7

Chapter 9: Attainment Demonstrations, RACM, RFP, and Contingency 

Measures

9.1 Attainment Outlook............................................................................ 9-1

9.2 Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)............................. 9-2

9.3 Reasonable Further Progress (RFP)................................................. 9-4

9.4 Contingency Measures ..................................................................... 9-8

9.4.1 What Qualifies as a Contingency Measure?....................... 9-9

9.4.1.1 Surplus Reductions from Implementation of

Traditional Regulations ..................................... 9-9

9.4.1.2 Regulations with Contingency Trigger .............. 9-11

9.4.1.3 SIP-Creditable Incentive-Based Emissions

Reductions........................................................ 9-12

9.4.2 Sufficient Contingency Reductions..................................... 9-13

Chapter 10: Summary of Attainment Strategy

10.1 Summary of 2012 PM2.5 Plan Control Strategy................................ 10-1

10.2 Population in Attainment through Implementation of Strategy ........ 10-8

10.3 Health Benefits of Attainment under the Plan.................................. 10-10
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Appendices

Appendix A: Ambient PM2.5 Data Analysis

A.1 PM2.5 Concentrations—Measurement and Influences ..................... A-1

A.1.1 PM2.5 Monitor Types ......................................................... A-2

A.1.2 Meteorological Influences on PM2.5 Concentrations ......... A-2

A.1.3 Exceptional Events Influences on PM2.5 Concentrations .. A-5

A.1.3.1 PM2.5 Exceptional Event Documentation

Submitted to EPA.............................................. A-5

A.1.3.2 High-Wind Events Effects on PM2.5 Data......... A-7

A.2 Attainment Demonstration—Design Values ...................................... A-8

A.3 Ambient PM2.5 Concentration Data Trends...................................... A-17

A.3.1 Days Over the 24-hour PM2.5 NAAQS .............................. A-17

A.3.2 Seasonal Trends—First- and Fourth-Quarter Averages..... A-19

A.3.3 Annual Trends of Diurnal PM2.5 Concentration Profiles .... A-28

A.3.4 PM2.5 Driven Air Quality Index Analysis ............................ A-33

A.3.5 PM2.5 Concentration Frequency Distributions ................... A-38

A.3.6 PM2.5 Concentration Distributions ..................................... A-41

A.3.7 PM2.5 Concentration by Day of Week ............................... A-46

A.4 Meteorology, PM2.5 Speciation, and Rule Effectiveness.................. A-49

A.4.1 Meteorologically Adjusted Trends ...................................... A-49

A.4.2 Trends in PM2.5 Species ................................................... A-51

A.4.3 Effectiveness of District Rule 4901..................................... A-55

Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

B.1 Emissions Inventory Tables .............................................................. B-3

B.2 Emissions Inventory Calculations and Revisions .............................. B-18

B.2.1 Base Year Inventory........................................................... B-19

B.2.2 Emission Forecasts ............................................................ B-19

B.2.3 Annual, Seasonal, and Modeling Inventories ..................... B-20

B.2.4 Quality Assurance and Quality Control............................... B-20

B.3 Emissions Inventory Improvements .................................................. B-21

B.3.1 Stationary Sources ............................................................. B-21

B.3.2 Area-wide Sources ............................................................. B-23

B.3.3 Mobile Sources................................................................... B-26

B.4 Future Population Estimates ............................................................. B-28

Appendix C: Mobile Source Control Strategies

C.1 Passenger Cars, Light-Duty Trucks, Medium-Duty Vehicles, and

Motorcycles ....................................................................................... C-3

C.2 Heavy-Duty Trucks............................................................................ C-7

C.3 Buses ................................................................................................ C-10

C.4 Aircraft and Airport Ground Support Equipment................................ C-13

C.5 Locomotives and Off-Road Rail Operations...................................... C-15

C.6 Ships, Commercial Boats, and Off-Road Port Operations ................ C-17

C.7 Recreational: Boats, Motor Homes, and Off-Highway Vehicles ........ C-19
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C.8 Other Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment .......................................... C-20

C.9 Farm Equipment................................................................................ C-22

C.10 ARB Mobile-Source RACM ............................................................... C-25

C.11 Transportation Conformity................................................................. C-26

C.11.1 PM2.5 Requirements.......................................................... C-26

C.11.2 Assessment of Significance................................................ C-28

C.11.3 Conformity Budgets............................................................ C-29

C.11.4 Local Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) .... C-33

C.11.5 SB 375................................................................................ C-35

Appendix D: Stationary and Area Source Control Strategy Evaluation

D.1 Combustion Devices ......................................................................... D-7

D.1.1 Rule 4203 Particulate Matter Emissions from the 

Incineration of Combustible Refuse.................................... D-10

D.1.2 Rule 4307 Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process

Heaters – 2.0 MMBtu/hr to 5.0 MMBtu/hr........................... D-13

D.1.3 Rule 4308 Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process

Heaters – 0.075 MMBtu/hr to less than 2.0 MMBtu/hr........ D-19

D.1.4 Rule 4309 Dryers, Dehydrators, and Ovens....................... D-26

D.1.5 Rule 4320 Advanced Emission Reduction Options 

for Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process Heaters 

Greater than 5.0 MMBtu/hr................................................. D-32

D.1.6 Rule 4352 Solid Fuel Fired Boilers, Steam Generators, 

and Process Heaters.......................................................... D-39

D.1.7 Rule 4702 Internal Combustion Engines ............................ D-47

D.1.8 Rule 4703 Stationary Gas Turbines.................................... D-54

D.2 Industrial Processes.......................................................................... D-65

D.2.1 Rule 4104 Reduction of Animal Matter............................... D-67

D.2.2 Rule 4311 Flares ................................................................ D-70

D.2.3 Rule 4313 Lime Kilns.......................................................... D-74

D.2.4 Rule 4354 Glass Melting Furnaces..................................... D-75

D.2.5 Rule 4802 Sulfuric Acid Mist............................................... D-79

D.3 Managed Burning.............................................................................. D-82

D.3.1 Rule 4103 Open Burning.................................................... D-85

D.3.2 Rule 4106 Prescribed Burning and Hazard Reduction

Burning............................................................................... D-90

D.4 Agricultural Processes .................................................................... D-96

D.4.1 Rule 4204 Cotton Gins ..................................................... D-99

D.4.2 Rule 4550 Conservation Management Practices ............. D-104

D.5 Residential and Commercial ........................................................... D-108

D.5.1 Rule 4692 Commercial Charbroiling................................. D-111

D.5.2 Rule 4901 Wood Burning Fireplaces and Wood

Burning Heaters ............................................................... D-118

D.5.3 Rule 4902 Residential Water Heaters .............................. D-128

D.5.4 Rule 4905 Natural Gas-Fired, Fan-Type, Residential

Central Furnaces.............................................................. D-132
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D.6 Fugitive Particulate Matter............................................................... D-135

D.6.1 Rule 8011 General Requirements .................................... D-138

D.6.2 Rule 8021 Construction, Demolition, Excavation, 

Extraction, and Other Earthmoving Activities ................... D-141

D.6.3 Rule 8031 Bulk Materials.................................................. D-144

D.6.4 Rule 8041 Carryout and Trackout..................................... D-147

D.6.5 Rule 8051 Open Areas ..................................................... D-150

D.6.6 Rule 8061 Paved and Unpaved Roads ............................ D-153

D.6.7 Rule 8071 Unpaved Vehicle/Equipment Traffic Areas...... D-157

D.6.8 Rule 8081 Agricultural Sources ........................................ D-160

D.7 Additional Source Categories.......................................................... D-163

D.7.1 SC 001 Lawn and Garden Equipment.............................. D-167

D.7.2 SC 002 Energy Efficiency................................................. D-176

D.7.3 SC 003 Fireworks............................................................. D-179

D.7.4 SC 004 Sand and Gravel Operations ............................... D-183

D.7.5 SC 005 Asphalt/Concrete Operations............................... D-186

D.7.6 SC 006 Almond Hulling/Shelling Operations .................... D-190

D.7.7 SC 007 Pistachio Hulling/Shelling Operations.................. D-196

D.7.8 SC 008 Agricultural Material Screening/Shaking

Operations........................................................................ D-199

D.7.9 SC 009 Tub Grinding........................................................ D-202

D.7.10 SC 010 Abrasive Blasting................................................. D-205

D.8 Emission Inventory Codes............................................................... D-208

Appendix E: BenMAP Health Benefit Analysis

E.1 Background....................................................................................... E-1

E.2 How BenMAP Works......................................................................... E-2

E.3 Summaries of Health Endpoints Used in the Analyses ..................... E-4

E.4 Incidence Results.............................................................................. E-6

E.5 Valuation Results .............................................................................. E-7

Appendix F: Modeling Protocol

Acronyms .......................................................................................... F-9

1. Introduction ....................................................................................... F-12

1.1 Modeling Roles for the Current SIP.................................... F-13

1.2 Stakeholder Participation in the SIP Modeling Process...... F-13

1.3 Involvement of External Scientific/Technical Experts 

and Their Input on the Photochemical Modeling ................ F-14

1.4 Schedule for Completion of the Plan .................................. F-15

2. Description of the Conceptual Model for the Nonattainment Area..... F-17

2.1 History of Field Studies in the Region ................................ F-17

2.2 CRPAQS Relevance to SIP................................................ F-21

2.3 Description of PM2.5 Monitoring in the SJV ....................... F-22

2.4 PM2.5 Air Quality Trends ................................................... F-24

2.5 Major PM2.5 Components.................................................. F-27

2.6 Conditions Leading to PM2.5 Exceedances ....................... F-28
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2.7 Past Modeling Efforts and Results ..................................... F-31

3. Selection of the Modeling Protocols .................................................. F-39

3.1 Reference Year Selection and Justification........................ F-39

3.2 Future Years and Justifications .......................................... F-39

3.3 Justification for Quarterly Modeling Instead of 

Several Episodes ............................................................... F-40

3.4 Identification of Exceptional Events to be excluded from

Base/Reference/Future Year Modeling .............................. F-40

4. Development of Emissions Inventories ............................................. F-42

4.1 PM2.5 Emissions Inventory Development.......................... F-42

4.1.1 Background ......................................................... F-43

4.1.2 Terminology......................................................... F-45

4.2 Point and Area Source Emissions ...................................... F-48

4.2.1 Development of Base-Year Emission Inventory .. F-48

4.2.2 Quality Assurance of Base Year Emissions......... F-49

4.3 Future Year (Forecasted) Emissions.................................. F-51

4.3.1 Growth Factors .................................................... F-51

4.3.2 Control Factors .................................................... F-52

4.4 Day Specific Emissions ...................................................... F-53

4.4.1 Wildfires and Prescribed Burns ........................... F-53

4.4.2 Paved Road Dust................................................. F-53

4.4.3 Unpaved Road Dust ............................................ F-55

4.4.4 Agricultural Burn Data for San Joaquin Valley..... F-56

4.4.5 Ocean-Going Vessels.......................................... F-57

4.5 Temporally and Spatially Resolved Emissions ................... F-57

4.6 Surface Temperature and Relative Humidity Fields ........... F-58

4.7 On-Road Mobile Source Emissions.................................... F-59

4.7.1 General Methodology .......................................... F-60

4.8 Biogenic Emissions ............................................................ F-65

4.9 Spatial Allocation................................................................ F-67

4.9.1 Grid Definition...................................................... F-68

4.9.2 Spatial Surrogates ............................................... F-69

4.10 Speciation........................................................................... F-74

4.10.1 Speciation Profiles............................................... F-75

4.10.2 Chemical Mechanisms......................................... F-77

4.11 Quality Assurance .............................................................. F-80

4.11.1 Examples of Standard Tabular Summaries ......... F-81

4.11.2 Spatial Plots......................................................... F-84

4.11.3 Time Series Plots................................................. F-85

5. Models and Inputs............................................................................. F-88

5.1 Rationale for the Selection of Models................................. F-88

5.1.1 Meteorology Model .............................................. F-88

5.1.2 Air Quality Model ................................................. F-89

5.2 Model Setup and Inputs...................................................... F-91
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5.2.1 Meteorology Model (modeling domains, 

horizontal and vertical resolution, physics 

options, regional reanalysis data, etc.) ................ F-91

5.2.2 Air Quality Model (modeling domains, horizontal

and vertical resolution, chemical mechanisms, 

PM routines, initial and boundary conditions,

etc.)...................................................................... F-94

5.2.3 Construction of the Simulated PM2.5 Mass....... F-104

5.2.4 Quality Assurance of Model Inputs .................... F-104

6. Meteorological Model Performance Evaluation............................... F-105

6.1 Known Performance Issues of Meteorological Models in

the Complex Terrain of California and Current Attempts 

to Improve Performance................................................... F-105

6.2 Ambient Data Base and Quality of Data........................... F-107

6.3 Model Performance Evaluation Procedures and

Metrics.............................................................................. F-108

6.3.1 Statistical Evaluation.......................................... F-108

6.3.2 Phenomenological Evaluation ........................... F-111

7. Air Quality Model Performance Evaluation...................................... F-113

7.1 Ambient Data Base and Quality of Data........................... F-113

7.2 Model Performance Evaluation Procedures and 

Metrics.............................................................................. F-115

7.3 Diagnostic Testing............................................................ F-119

8. Attainment Plan ........................................................................... F-120

8.1 Calculation of Relative Response Factors........................ F-120

8.2 Sulfate, Adjusted Nitrate, Derived Water, Inferred 

Carbonaceous Material Balance Approach (SANDWICH)

and Potential Modifications............................................... F-120

8.3 Estimation of Species Concentration at Federal 

Reference Method (FRM) Monitors that Lack

Speciation Data ................................................................ F-124

8.4 Speciated Modeled Attainment Test (SMAT) ................... F-125

8.5 Sensitivity Analyses.......................................................... F-127

8.6 Unmonitored Area Analysis .............................................. F-127

9. Supplemental Analyses................................................................... F-129

9.1 Additional Analyses to be completed to Corroborate

The Modeling.................................................................... F-129

9.2 Base Case Air-Quality Modeling with Meteorological 

Fields Generated with the Weather and Research

Forecast (WRF) Model ..................................................... F-130

10. Procedural Requirements ............................................................... F-132

10.1 How Modeling and other Analyses will be Archived

Documented, and Disseminated ...................................... F-132

10.2 Specific Deliverables to U.S. EPA.................................... F-133

References...................................................................................... F-134
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Appendix G: PM2.5 Weight of Evidence Analysis

Executive Summary .......................................................................... i

1. Introduction ....................................................................................... 1

2. PM2.5 Standards and Health Effects ................................................ 3

3. Monitoring in the San Joaquin Valley ................................................ 4

a. Established monitoring network.......................................... 4

b. Extensive field studies........................................................ 4

4. Nature and Extent of the PM2.5 Problem.......................................... 7

a. Current air quality ............................................................... 7

b. Seasonal variability ............................................................ 7

c. Diurnal variability ................................................................ 8

d. Chemical composition ........................................................ 9

e. Spatial distribution of the major PM2.5 components, local

versus regional ................................................................... 11

f. Episode development......................................................... 13

5. Secondary Ammonium Nitrate Formation ......................................... 15

a. Chemistry ........................................................................... 15

b. Limiting precursor concept ................................................. 16

c. Role of ammonia in ammonium nitrate formation............... 17

d. Role of VOC in ammonium nitrate formation...................... 24

6. Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation ............................................. 32

7. Emission Sources of Wintertime PM2.5 ............................................ 34

a. Emission Inventory ............................................................. 34

b. Chemical markers of source types ..................................... 36

c. Source appointment using source receptor models ........... 37

d. Photochemical modeling source apportionment................. 41

8. PM2.5 Quality Progress .................................................................... 42

a. Annual PM2.5 trends.......................................................... 42

b. 24-Hour PM2.5 trends ........................................................ 43

c. Meteorology impacts on air quality ..................................... 44

d. Annual trends adjusted for meteorology............................. 47

e. 24-Hour trends adjusted for meteorology ........................... 48

f. Trends in 24-Hour, seasonal, and hourly PM2.5 ................ 50

g. Chemical composition trends ............................................. 55

h. Emission inventory trends .................................................. 57

9. Linking Air Quality Trends to Emission Reductions........................... 58

a. NOx Control........................................................................ 58

b. Residential wood burning controls...................................... 60

10. Modeled Attainment Demonstration .................................................. 62

a. Modeling results ................................................................. 62

b. Benefits of emission reductions from on-going programs... 63

c. Evaluation of precursor sensitivity ...................................... 64

d. Demonstrating attainment at Bakersfield-California ........... 70

11. Summary........................................................................................... 71

References........................................................................................ 72
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Appendix 1 California Regional PM10/PM2.5 Air Quality 

Study Publications

Appendix 2 PM2.5 Source Apportionment for the San 

Joaquin Valley Air Basin Using the Chemical 

Mass Balance Receptor Model

Appendix 3 Source Apportionment of PM2.5 Measured at the 

Fresno and Bakersfield Chemical Speciation 

Network Sites in the San Joaquin Valley Using 

the Positive Matrix Factorization Model

Appendix 4 Methodology for Meteorological Adjustment of 

PM2.5 Trend Statistics

Appendix 5 Speciated Linear Rollback Modeling as a

Corroborative Analysis to the Regional

Photochemical Model

Appendix 6 Unmonitored Areas Analysis

Appendix H: Emission Reduction Credits

H.1 Introduction ....................................................................................... H-1

H.2 Pre-Baseline Emission Reduction Credits......................................... H-1

Attachment 1: Development of PM2.5 Interpollutant Trading 

Ratios Used in New Source Reviews within the

San Joaquin Valley.............................................. H-84

1. Introduction.................................................. H-85

2. Modeling Description ................................... H-85

3. Trading Ratios ............................................. H-86

4. Alternative Approaches................................ H-88

Appendix I: Summary of Significant Comments and Responses ................... I-1
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List of Figures

Figure ES-1 San Joaquin Valley Emissions Reductions, 2012 PM2.5 Plan............. ES-3

Figure ES-2 Exceedances of PM10 Standard Eliminated........................................ ES-4

Figure ES-3 San Joaquin Valley Emissions Reductions, 1990 – 2005 .................... ES-4

Figure ES-4 San Joaquin Valley PM2.5 Design Value Trends ................................ ES-5

Figure ES-5 San Joaquin Valley Ozone Trends ...................................................... ES-5

Figure ES-6 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Index Trends....................................... ES-6

Figure ES-7 San Joaquin Valley Topography Traps Air Pollution............................ ES-9

Figure ES-8 Percent of Valley Population Living in Attainment Areas through

Implementation of 2012 PM2.5 Plan..................................................ES-10

Figure ES-9 The Valley’s Journey to Attainment ................................................... ES-11

Figure 1-1 Trends in Exceedances of the 24-hour PM2.5 Standard ..................... 1-4

Figure 1-2 PM10, PM2.5, Human Hair, and Fine Beach Sand.............................. 1-5

Figure 2-1 PM2.5 Chemical Composition on Peak Days ...................................... 2-11

Figure 2-2 Relationships Between Particle Size Distribution and Respiratory

Deposition Zones................................................................................. 2-15

Figure 2-3 Particle Number Deposition Fraction (DF) and Total Particle 

Deposition of PM0.1 at Rest and Exercise........................................... 2-16

Figure 2-4 Electron Micrograph of an Ultrafine Particle......................................... 2-17

Figure 2-5 Simplified Intake Fraction Model.......................................................... 2-19

Figure 3-1 San Joaquin Valley Air Basin............................................................... 3-2

Figure 3-2 Atmosphere with and without a Temperature Inversion....................... 3-3

Figure 3-3 Days over 35 μg/m3by Month at Fresno-First from 2010-2011............ 3-4

Figure 3-4 San Joaquin Valley PM2.5 Winter Emissions Inventory Trend ............ 3-6

Figure 3-5 San Joaquin Valley Winter NOx Emissions Inventory Trend ............... 3-7

Figure 3-6 San Joaquin Valley PM2.5 Annual and Winter Inventory Trends......... 3-8

Figure 3-7 Air Monitoring Sites within the San Joaquin Valley Air District............. 3-9

Figure 3-8 Historical PM2.5 24-Hour Design Value Trends .................................. 3-10

Figure 3-9 Trend of 24-Hour Average PM2.5 Design Values at 

Bakersfield-Planz................................................................................. 3-11

Figure 3-10 Trend of Annual Average PM2.5 Design Values at

Bakersfield-Planz................................................................................. 3-11

Figure 3-11 Annual Trends in Days over 35 μg/m3................................................. 3-12

Figure 3-12 Trend of Fourth-Quarter Average at Visalia......................................... 3-13

Figure 4-1 Comparison of 2004-2006 Average Annual PM2.5 Chemical

Composition......................................................................................... 4-5

Figure 4-2 Modeled Regional Distribution of Ammonium Nitrate .......................... 4-7

Figure 4-3 Ammonia versus Nitric Acid Measurements at Angiola........................ 4-8

Figure 4-4 Abundance of Ammonia in the San Joaquin Valley ............................. 4-9

Figure 4-5 NOx Control Reduces Ammonium Nitrate Most Efficiently .................. 4-9
San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

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Figure 4-6 Modeled Ammonium Nitrate Response to Ammonia vs. NOx

Controls ............................................................................................... 4-10

Figure 4-7 Correlation Between NOx Reductions and Observed Ammonium

Nitrate in Fresno .................................................................................. 4-10

Figure 4-8 PM Size Fraction for Windblown Dust from Agricultural Land.............. 4-14

Figure 4-9 POA and SOA Formation Processes and Atmospheric Interactions.... 4-15

Figure 4-10 POA Aging and Photolysis................................................................... 4-16

Figure 4-11 Valley Trend of OC Mass as a Fraction of PM2.5 Mass ...................... 4-19

Figure 4-12 Winter Season Trend of Valley Average Daily PM2.5 Mass ................ 4-19

Figure 4-13 Average Winter Season Potassium Concentration in the San

Joaquin Valley ..................................................................................... 4-20

Figure 4-14 Air Quality Modeling Domain ............................................................... 4-28

Figure 4-15 Bakersfield-California Carrying Capacity Diagrams ............................. 4-31

Figure 4-16 Bakersfield-Planz Carrying Capacity Diagrams ................................... 4-32

Figure 4-17 Fresno-1st Carrying Capacity Diagrams.............................................. 4-33

Figure 4-18 Fresno-HW Carrying Capacity Diagrams............................................. 4-34

Figure 4-19 Clovis Carrying Capacity Diagrams ..................................................... 4-35

Figure 4-20 Modesto Carrying Capacity Diagrams ................................................. 4-36

Figure 4-21 Merced Carrying Capacity Diagrams ................................................... 4-37

Figure 4-22 Stockton Carrying Capacity Diagrams ................................................. 4-38

Figure 4-23 Visalia Carrying Capacity Diagrams .................................................... 4-39

Figure 4-24 Corcoran Carrying Capacity Diagrams ................................................ 4-40

Figure 5-1 Rule Development Process ................................................................. 5-23

Figure 9-1 NOx RFP Demonstration ..................................................................... 9-7

Figure 10-1 Valley Residents with PM2.5 Concentrations below the Federal

24-hour PM2.5 Standard...................................................................... 10-8

Figure 10-2 Modeled PM2.5 Attainment Status by Monitoring Site......................... 10-9

Figure A-1 Stagnation Episodes Comparison at Fresno-First ............................... A-4

Figure A-2 Stagnation Episodes Comparison at Bakersfield-California................. A-4

Figures A-3.1 through 3.4 24-hour and Annual Design Value Trends at

Stockton Hazelton and Modesto............................. A-12

Figures A-3.5 through 3.8 24-hour and Annual Design Value Trends at

Merced-M and Clovis ............................................. A-13

Figures A-3.9 through 3.12 24-hour and Annual Design Value Trends at

Fresno-First and Fresno-Winery............................. A-14

Figures A-3.13 through 3.16 24-hour and Annual Design Value Trends at

Corcoran and Visalia .............................................. A-15

Figures A-3.17 through 3.20 24-hour and Annual Design Value Trends at

Bakersfield-CA and Bakersfield-Planz.................... A-16

Figure A-4 Trend in Days over the 1997 24-Hour PM2.5 NAAQS......................... A-17

Figure A-5 Trend in Days over the 2006 24-Hour PM2.5 NAAQS......................... A-18

Figure A-6 1st Quarter Average Trend at Bakersfield-California ........................... A-19
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Figure A-7 4th Quarter Average Trend at Bakersfield-California ........................... A-20

Figure A-8 1st Quarter Average Trend at Clovis ................................................... A-21

Figures A-9.1 through 9.4 1st and 4th Quarter PM2.5 Average Trends at

Clovis ..................................................................... A-22

Figures A-9.5 through 9.8 1st and 4th Quarter PM2.5 Average Trends at

Fresno-First............................................................ A-23

Figures A-9.9 through 9.12 1st and 4th Quarter PM2.5 Average Trends at

Corcoran................................................................. A-24

Figures A-9.13 through 9.16 1st and 4th Quarter PM2.5 Average Trends at

Visalia..................................................................... A-25

Figures A-9.17 through 9.20 1st and 4th Quarter PM2.5 Average Trends at

Bakersfield-California ............................................. A-26

Figures A-9.21 through 9.24 1st and 4th Quarter PM2.5 Average Trends at

Bakersfield-Planz ................................................... A-27

Figures A-10.1 through 10.4 PM2.5 Diurnal Profiles: Stockton-Hazelton,

Tracy, Modesto, Turlock......................................... A-29

Figures A-10.5 through 10.8 PM2.5 Diurnal Profiles: Merced-Coffee, Clovis,

Fresno-First, Tranquility ......................................... A-30

Figures A-10.9 through 10.12 PM2.5 Diurnal Profiles: Hanford, Corcoran,

Visalia, Porterville................................................... A-31

Figures A-10.13 through 10.14 PM2.5 Diurnal Profiles: Ash Mountain,

Bakersfield-California ............................................. A-32

Figure A-11 Air Quality Index Categories ................................................................ A-34

Figures A-12.1 through 12.4 Number of Days per AQI Category per Year:

Stockton-Hazelton, Tracy, Modesto, 

and Turlock............................................................. A-35

Figures A-12.5 through 12.8 Number of Days per AQI Category per Year:

Merced, Clovis, Fresno-First, and Hanford............. A-36

Figures A-12.9 through 12.12 Number of Days per AQI Category per Year:

Corcoran, Visalia, Ash Mountain,

and Bakersfield-California ...................................... A-37

Figure A-13 Histogram Comparison for Fresno-First............................................... A-38

Figure A-14 Histogram Comparison for Modesto .................................................... A-39

Figure A-15 Histogram Comparison for Corcoran ................................................... A-39

Figure A-16 Histogram Comparison for Visalia ....................................................... A-40

Figure A-17 Histogram Comparison for Bakersfield-Planz ...................................... A-40

Figure A-18 Box-and-Whisker Plot Interpretation .................................................... A-41

Figure A-19 Box-and-Whisker Plot of PM2.5 at Fresno-First................................... A-42

Figure A-20 Box-and-Whisker Plot of PM2.5 at Bakersfield-Planz .......................... A-43

Figures A-21.1 through 21.4 PM2.5 Distributions for Stockton-Hazelton, 

Modesto, Merced-M, and Clovis............................. A-44

Figures A-21.5 through 21.8 PM2.5 Distributions for Fresno-Winery, Corcoran,

Visalia, and Bakersfield-California.......................... A-45

Figure A-22 Day of Week PM2.5 Concentrations at Modesto ................................. A-46

Figure A-23 Day of Week PM2.5 Concentrations at Fresno-First............................ A-47

Figure A-24 Day of Week PM2.5 Concentrations at Corcoran ................................ A-47
San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

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2012 PM2.5 Plan 

Figure A-25 Day of Week PM2.5 Concentrations at Visalia .................................... A-48

Figure A-26 Day of Week PM2.5 Concentrations at Bakersfield-California............. A-48

Figure A-27 Meteorologically Adjusted PM2.5 Trend for Bakersfield ...................... A-50

Figure A-28 Meteorologically Adjusted PM2.5 Trend for Fresno............................. A-51

Figure A-29 Species Contribution to PM2.5 Mass in Fresno ................................... A-52

Figure A-30 Species Contribution to PM2.5 Mass in Bakersfield ............................ A-52

Figure A-31 PM2.5 Species Trends at Modesto...................................................... A-53

Figure A-32 PM2.5 Species Trends at Fresno-First ................................................ A-54

Figure A-33 PM2.5 Species Trends at Visalia ......................................................... A-54

Figure A-34 PM2.5 Species Trends at Bakersfield-California.................................. A-55

Figure A-35 Effect of Rule 4901 on Winter (November through February)

PM2.5 Concentrations in Fresno ......................................................... A-56

Figure B-1 Heavy Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Emissions Forecast:

EMFAC2011 vs. Current Assessment ................................................. B-27

Figure B-2 In-Use Construction Equipment Revised Activity Growth

Estimate............................................................................................... B-28

Figure B-3 Temporal Comparison of Population Projections................................. B-30

Figure C-1 Illustration of San Joaquin Valley MPO Funding for Sample 

TCM Categories................................................................................... C-34

Figure D-1 Average PM2.5 Emissions based on Device ..................................... D-122

Figure E-1 Selected Concentration Response Functions ...................................... E-8

Figure E-2 Avoided Disease Incidence by 2019 Due to Lower PM2.5 Exposure .. E-10

Figure E-3 Reduced Disease Symptoms and Lost Work by 2019......................... E-10

Figure E-4 County Annual Avoided Deaths due to Premature Mortality by 2019 . E-11

Figure E-5 County Annual Avoided Non-Fatal Health Costs by 2019.................... E-13

Figure 2-1 PM2.5 composition on an average exceedance day ........................... F-28

Figure 5-1 The three nested grids for the MM5 model (D01 36km; D02 

12km; and D03 4km)............................................................................ F-92

Figure 5-2 Modeling domains used by ARB.......................................................... F-95

Figure 5-3 1-hour O3 mixing ratio at 3 am of Jan 10, 2007 (UTC) predicted by

CMAQv4.7.1 with the Yamartino advection scheme............................ F-99

Figure 5-4 Difference in monthly average PM2.5 predictions for January 2007

simulated using CMAQv4.7.1 with the PPM and Yamartino 

schemes .............................................................................................F-100

Figure 5-5 Comparison of MOZART (red) simulated CO (left), ozone 

(center), and PAN (right) to observations (black) along the 

DC-8 flight track. Shown are mean (filled symbol), median (open 

symbols), 10th and 90th percentiles (bars) and extremes 

(lines). The number of data points per 1-km wide altitude bin is 

shown next to the graphs. Adapted from Figure 2 in Pfister et al. 

(2011).. ...............................................................................................F-101
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Figure 5-6 Difference in average PM2.5 prediction for January 2007 between

simulation with the nested domain and simulation using 4km grid 

for the entire coarse domain ...............................................................F-103

Figure 6-1 Terrain height changes along with counties and major rivers and 

lakes in California(http://geology.com/state-map/california.shtml) ......F-107

Figure 7-1 Example of “bugle plots” showing PM2.5 actual model performance 

As compared to model performance criteria and goals (from 

Boylan and Russell, 2006)..................................................................F-117

Figure 7-2 Example of a “soccer plot” showing PM2.5 fractional bias and error

(from Tesche et al., 2006)...................................................................F-117

Figure 7-3 An example of a Taylor diagram .........................................................F-118

Figure 1 PM2.5 particle diameter compared to the thickness of a single 

strand of hair....................................................................................... 3

Figure 2 San Joaquin Valley PM2.5 monitoring network (FRMs and FEMs,

October 2012)..................................................................................... 4

Figure 3 CRPAQS monitoring program............................................................. 5

Figure 4 2011 24-hour design values................................................................ 7

Figure 5 Seasonal variation in PM2.5 concentrations at BakersfieldCalifornia............................................................................................. 8

Figure 6 Variation in hourly PM2.5 concentrations during the winter at 

Fresno-1st........................................................................................... 9

Figure 7 2009-2011 average peak day PM2.5 chemical composition 

at a) Bakersfield, b) Fresno, and c) Modesto...................................... 10

Figure 8 Spatial distribution of winter ammonium nitrate concentrations 

measured during CRPAQS (Chow et al., 2005).................................. 12

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of annual ammonia (NH3) concentrations 

(2/1/2000-1/31/2001) during CRPAQS (Chow et al., 2005)................ 12

Figure 10 Spatial distribution of winter organic carbon concentration

measured during CRPAQS (Chow et al., 2005).................................. 13

Figure 11 Atmospheric stability and buildup of PM2.5 concentrations at an 

urban site (Fresno) and a rural site (Selma) in the Fresno area 

during the December 2000 CRPAQS episode.................................... 13

Figure 12 Ammonium nitrate concentrations at Bakersfield during the 

2000/2001 CRPAQS episode ............................................................. 14

Figure 13 Ammonium nitrate formation............................................................... 16

Figure 14 Reducing the less abundant precursor is more effective in reducing

ammonium nitrate ............................................................................... 17

Figure 15 Reducing the more abundant precursor is less effective in reducing

ammonium nitrate ............................................................................... 17

Figure 16 Comparison of ammonia and nitric acid concentrations 

measured at Angiola during the winter of 2000/2001 as part of 

CRPAQS............................................................................................. 19

Figure 17 Comparison of ammonia and nitric acid concentrations 

measured at Fresno during the winter of 2000/2001 as part of 

CRPAQS............................................................................................. 20
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Figure 18 Comparison of particulate ammonium and gaseous ammonia

concentrations measured throughout the SJV during the 

winter of 2000/2001 as part of CRPAQS ............................................ 21

Figure 19 Particulate nitrate reductions in response to 50 percent reductions in

precursor emissions on January 6, 1996 ............................................ 22

Figure 20 Percent ammonium nitrate reduction in response to 50 percent 

reduction in NOx or ammonia emission reductions at Fresno 

during the winter of 2000/2001 ........................................................... 23

Figure 21 Time series with daily observations, base case simulation results 

And results from the sensitivity cases of (a) nitrate and 

(b) PM2.5 at Angiola (left) and Bakersfield (right). 

(Source: Pun et al., 2009, excerpt from Figure 2, pg. 406) ................. 24

Figure 22 24-hour average NOx/VOC particulate nitrate isopleths at Fresno for 

(a) all sources, (b) diesel engines, (c) catalyst equipped gasoline 

engines, and (d) upwind sources of nitrate. Units are μg/m3. 

(Source: Kleeman et al., 2005, Figure 3 pg. 5333) ............................. 27

Figure 23 24-hour average NOx/VOC particulate nitrate isopleths at grid

location -85 km Northing, 90 km Easting for (a) all sources, 

(b) diesel engines, (c) catalyst equipped gasoline engines, and 

(d) upwind sources of nitrate. Units are μg/m3. (Source: 

Kleeman et al., 2005, Figure 5 pg. 5335)............................................ 28

Figure 24 The isopleths plot of PM2.5 nitrate with emission control of NOx 

and VOC at Angiola (ANG) and Fresno (FEI) after a five-day 

back trajectory simulation for December 31, 2000. Units are 

in μg/m3. (Source: Kleeman, M.J., personal communication, May 

2008)................................................................................................... 29

Figure 25 Time series with daily observations, base case simulation results 

and results from the sensitivity cases of (a) nitrate and 

(b) PM2.5 at Angiola (left) and Bakersfield (right). (Source: 

Pun et al., 2009, excerpt from Figure 2, pg. 406)................................ 31

Figure 26 Daily contributions to organic aerosol concentrations in 

Bakersfield in 2000 modeled with CMAQ: Primary organic aerosols 

(PA), secondary aerosols formed from biogenic VOC emissions 

(SB) and secondary aerosols formed from anthropogenic source 

VOC emissions (SA). Units are μg/m3................................................ 33

Figure 27 Spatial distribution of annual levoglucosan measured throughout 

the San Joaquin Valley during CRPAQS (Watson, J., Roth, P., 

2006)................................................................................................... 36

Figure 28 Wood smoke contribution to PM2.5 at Fresno-1st during a 

number of winter days in 2003 and 2004 (Gorin et al., 2005) ............. 37

Figure 29 CMB model calculated 2007-2010 average PM2.5 source 

contributions of days with PM2.5 concentrations measuring over 

30 μg/m3 at a) Bakersfield-California (BAC) between 2007 and 

2010 and b) Fresno-1st Street (FSF) between 2009 and 2010........... 40
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2012 PM2.5 Plan 

Figure 30 Average high day source contributions estimated using PMF on 

days with PM2.5 concentrations measuring over 30 μg/m3 

at a) Bakersfield-California (BAC) between 2008 and 2010 and 

b) Fresno-1st Street (FSF) between 2009 and 2010 .......................... 41

Figure 31 Trend in annual PM25 design values (2001-2011) at the BakersfieldCalifornia, Fresno-1st, and Modesto monitoring sites......................... 42

Figure 32 Trend in 24-Hour PM2.5 Design Values (2001-2011) at the 

Bakersfield-California, Fresno-1st, and Modesto monitoring sites ...... 43

Figure 33 Trend in measured days over the 24-Hour standard of 35 μg/m3 

(1999-2011) at the Bakersfield-California and Fresno-1st 

monitoring sites................................................................................... 44

Figure 34 Frequency of high PM2.5 days in different regions of the San 

Joaquin Valley corresponding to different synoptic 

meteorological conditions during the CRPAQS winter of 2000/2001 

(Mac Donald et al., 2006).................................................................... 45

Figure 35 Comparison of the 2011/2012 PM2.5 episode to the CRPAQS 

episodes of 1999/2000 and 2000/2001 at Bakersfield-California........ 46

Figure 36 Comparison of the 2011/2012 PM2.5 episode to the CRPAQS 

episodes of 1999/2000 and 2000/2001 at Fresno 1st......................... 47

Figure 37 Observed and met-adjusted PM2.5 trends in Bakersfield................... 48

Figure 38 Observed and met-adjusted PM2.5 trends in Fresno ......................... 48

Figure 39 Observed and met-adjusted trends for PM2.5 exceedance days in 

a) the Bakersfield area and b) the Fresno area .................................. 49

Figure 40 Change in PM2.5 concentration frequency distribution between 

the 1999-2001 and 2009-2011 periods at the a) BakersfieldCalifornia, b) Fresno-1st, and c) Modesto monitoring sites................. 50

Figure 41 Change in three-year averages of 1st and 4th quarter 

PM2.5 concentrations at the Bakersfield-California, Fresno-1st,

and Modesto monitoring sites ............................................................. 51

Figure 42 Changes in winter-months average (January, February, November,

December) PM2.5 concentrations at the Bakersfield-California, 

Fresno-1st and Modesto monitoring sites among years with 

most PM2.5 conducive meteorology................................................... 52

Figure 43 Changes in PM2.5 monthly concentrations between the 1999-2001

and 2009-2011 three-year periods at the a) BakersfieldCalifornia, b) Fresno-1st, and c) Modesto monitoring sites................. 53

Figure 44 Changes in the average November-December PM2.5 

hourly concentrations between the 1999-2001 and 2009-2011 

three-year periods at the a) Bakersfield-California, b) Fresno-1st, 

and c) Modesto monitoring sites ......................................................... 54

Figure 45 Trends in PM2.5 chemical components at Bakersfield ....................... 55

Figure 46 Trends in PM2.5 chemical components at Fresno-1st........................ 56

Figure 47 Trends in PM2.5 chemical components at Modesto ........................... 56

Figure 48 PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor winter emission trends in the San 

Joaquin Valley .................................................................................... 57
San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

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2012 PM2.5 Plan 

Figure 49 Comparison between trends in Valley wide winter average NOx 

Emission and PM2.5 nitrate concentrations at Bakersfield and 

Fresno. Emissions and concentrations are presented as 

three-year winter averages ................................................................. 58

Figure 50 Comparison of trends in wintertime PM2.5 nitrate and NOx 

Concentrations in Bakersfield. Concentrations are presented as 

three-year winter averages ................................................................. 59

Figure 51 Comparison of trends in wintertime PM2.5 nitrate and NOx 

Concentrations in Fresno. Concentrations are presented 

as three-year winter averages ............................................................ 59

Figure 52 Long-term trends in three-year average concentrations of 

PM10 nitrate and NOx in the San Joaquin Valley ............................... 60

Figure 53 Effect of SJVAPCD’s Rule 4901 on PM2.5 concentrations in 

Fresno................................................................................................. 61

Figure 54 Bakersfield–California Isopleth Diagrams ........................................... 67

Figure 55 2019 top five wintertime PM2.5 emission sources within the 

Bakersfield-California 9-grid cell area (3x3 grid cells, each measuring 

4 km x 4 km with the Bakersfield-California monitor located in the 

center cell). Wintertime emissions expressed as an average of 

January, February, November and December emissions................... 69

Figure 56 2019 top five wintertime NOx emission sources within the 

Bakersfield-California 9-grid cell area (3x3 grid cells, each measuring 

4 km x 4 km with the Bakersfield-California monitor located in the 

center cell). Wintertime emissions expressed as an average of 

January, February, November and December emissions................... 69
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San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xxii. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

List of Tables

Table ES-1 Health Benefits Achieved Through Implementation of 

2012 PM2.5 Plan................................................................................. ES-12

Table 1-1 Estimated Valley Population by County, 2010-2020 ............................. 1-3

Table 1-2 PM2.5 Species...................................................................................... 1-6

Table 1-3 Federal Requirements for PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas........................ 1-10

Table 1-4 Federal Air Quality Standards and Valley Status for PM2.5.................. 1-11

Table 1-5 2012 PM2.5 Plan Development and Public Workshop Timeline ........... 1-12

Table 2-1 Health Benefits Achieved Through Implementation of the Plan ............ 2-20

Table 2-2 Economic Costs Associated with Quantified Health Benefits................ 2-21

Table 4-1 2019 Modeled 24-hour PM2.5 Design Values with Enhanced

Residential Wood-Burning Curtailment Program................................... 4-23

Table 4-2 Attainment Demonstration―Bakersfield-California Design

Value Site ............................................................................................. 4-24

Table 5-1 Adopted District Rules........................................................................... 5-3

Table 5-2 Adopted ARB Regulations .................................................................... 5-10

Table 5-3 Regulatory Control Measure Commitments .......................................... 5-21

Table 5-4 Further Study Measures........................................................................ 5-25

Table 6-1 Potential New Incentive Programs ........................................................ 6-13

Table 8-1 District 2012 Legislative Platform.......................................................... 8-1

Table 9-1 Kern County Attainment Outlook........................................................... 9-2

Table 9-2 Emissions Inventory with Plan Control Strategy (tpd) ........................... 9-5

Table 9-3 Total Reductions Necessary to Reach Attainment (tpd)........................ 9-5

Table 9-4 Target Emissions Levels for RFP Milestone Years ............................... 9-6

Table 9-5 RFP Target Demonstration (2014 and 2017) ........................................ 9-6

Table 9-6 Contingency Emissions Reductions Target (in tons per day, or tpd)..... 9-8

Table 9-7 Reductions Surplus to RFP for Contingency (tpd)................................. 9-10

Table 9-8 Attainment Contingencies from Traditional Regulatory 

Reductions (tpd).................................................................................... 9-10

Table 9-9 Demonstration of Sufficient Contingency Reductions ........................... 9-14

Table 10-1 District Regulations Contributing to Continued PM2.5 Improvement..... 10-2

Table 10-2 ARB Regulations Contributing to Continued PM2.5 Improvement ........ 10-2

Table 10-3 New District Regulatory Control Measures ........................................... 10-5

Table 10-4 District Non-Regulatory Control Measure Strategy Summary .............. 10-6

Table 10-5 Health Benefits Achieved Through Implementation of the Plan ........... 10-10
San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xxiii. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

Table A-1 2007 and 2008 Exceptional Events Impact on 24-hour and 

Annual PM2.5 Values............................................................................ A-6

Table A-2 Example of High-Wind Event Influence on Bakersfield-Planz

Design Value......................................................................................... A-7

Table A-3 General PM2.5 Design Value Calculation Methods .............................. A-8

Table A-4 Single Year 24-hour Average PM2.5 98th Percentile 

Values (μg/m3) ...................................................................................... A-10

Table A-5 24-hour Average PM2.5 Design Values 

(three-year averages, μg/m3)................................................................ A-10

Table A-6 Single Year Annual Mean PM2.5 Concentrations (μg/m3).................... A-11

Table A-7 Annual PM2.5 Design Values (three-year averages, μg/m3) ................ A-11

Table A-8 24-Hour PM2.5 AQI Scale..................................................................... A-33

Table B-1 Directly Emitted PM2.5 (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day)........... B-3

Table B-2 NOx (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day)........................................ B-6

Table B-3 SOx (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day)........................................ B-9

Table B-4 VOC (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day) ....................................... B-12

Table B-5 Ammonia (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day)................................ B-15

Table B-6 Comparison between DOF and MPO Population Projections ............... B-30

Table C-1 Proposed Adjustment Factors for Annual Emissions ............................ C-30

Table C-2 District and ARB Control Measures Reducing On-road

Mobile Source Emissions...................................................................... C-31

Table C-3 Example County Emission Budget Calculation (tons per winter

season day)........................................................................................... C-31

Table C-4 Transportation Conformity Budgets (tons per average annual day)...... C-32

Table D-1 District Stationary and Area Source Regulations Contributing to

Continued PM2.5 Improvement............................................................. D-2

Table D-2 District Combustion Devices Rules ....................................................... D-9

Table D-3 Emissions Reductions and Cost Effectiveness of Solid Fuel Fired

Boilers by Fuel Type ............................................................................. D-41

Table D-4 SCR Annual Costs for a New Installation on a 1 MW Turbine .............. D-57

Table D-5 SCR Annual Costs for a Retrofit on a 1 MW Turbine ............................ D-58

Table D-6 SCR Cost Effectiveness........................................................................ D-60

Table D-7 Current Industrial Process Rules........................................................... D-66

Table D-8 Current Managed Burning Rules........................................................... D-84

Table D-9 Current Agricultural Process Rules ..................................................... D-98

Table D-10 Current Residential and Commercial Rules ........................................ D-110

Table D-11 Estimated Emissions Reduction.......................................................... D-116

Table D-12 Average Number of Days Forecast Above Curtailment Thresholds.... D-120

Table D-13 Potential Emissions Reductions.......................................................... D-126

Table D-14 Estimated Change in Number of No Burn Days .................................. D-126

Table D-15 Emissions Reductions and Cost Effectiveness of Water Heaters

by Fuel Type ....................................................................................... D-130

Table D-16 Current Regulation VIII Rules.............................................................. D-137
San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

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2012 PM2.5 Plan 

Table D-17 Additional Source Categories.............................................................. D-163

Table D-18 City Bans of Leaf Blowers ........................................................... D-172

Table D-19 Emission Inventory Codes................................................................... D-208

Table E-1 BenMAP Estimates of Mean Annual Reductions in Health Effects 

Under the Plan by 2019 ........................................................................ E-9

Table E-2 Annual Estimated Reductions in Non-Fatal Health Costs by 2019 

for Each Health Endpoint ...................................................................... E-12

Table 1-1 The Timeline for Completion of the Plan ............................................... F-16

Table 2-1 Major Field Studies in Central California and surrounding areas .......... F-20

Table 2-2 PM2.5 Monitoring sites in the San Joaquin valley nonattainment

Area ...................................................................................................... F-23

Table 2-3 Percentiles and 24-hour Design Value.................................................. F-26

Table 4-1 Inventory Terms for Emission Source Types......................................... F-45

Table 4-2 DTIM Emission Categories ................................................................... F-63

Table 4-3 Summary of spatial surrogates.............................................................. F-72

Table 4-4 ARB’s SAPRC-99 emitted Organic Model Species ............................... F-77

Table 4-5 Model Species for NOx ......................................................................... F-80

Table 5-1 MM5 30 Vertical Layer Configuration .................................................... F-93

Table 5-2 MM5 Physics Options ........................................................................... F-94

Table 5-3 CMAQv4.7.1 Schemes used for Current Simulations ........................... F-96

Table 7-1 Observation for evaluating model performance....................................F-113

Table 8-1 The FRM sites in SJV and their companion speciation sites................F-125

Table E-1 2019 Modeled 24-hour PM2.5 Design Values with Enhanced 

Residential Wood Burning Curtailment Program..................................... iv

Table E-2 Attainment Demonstration for the Bakersfield-California Design 

Value Site................................................................................................ vi

Table 1 Comparison of NOx and ammonia emissions in selected years ............. 18

Table 2 Main emission sources of PM2.5 components........................................ 35

Table 3 Wintertime PM2.5 source contributions estimates for IMS-95 and 

CRPAQS................................................................................................. 38

Table 4 2019 Modeled 24-hour PM2.5 Design Values......................................... 62

Table 5 Comparison of the concentration of chemical constituents for 

2007 and 2019 design values at selected sites....................................... 63

Table 6 Modeled reduction in 2019 PM2.5 design value resulting from 25 

percent reduction in valley wide precursor emissions ............................. 65

Table 7 Modeled PM2.5 air quality benefit per ton of valley wide precursor 

emission reductions ................................................................................ 65

Table 8 Attainment Demonstration for the Bakersfield-California Design 

Value Site................................................................................................ 70

Table H-1 Estimated PM2.5 Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use .............. H-7

Table H-2 Estimated NOx Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use ................. H-9

Table H-3 Estimated SOx Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use ................. H-11
San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xxv. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

Table H-4 Estimated VOC Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use................. H-13

Table H-5 List of Emission Reduction Credits PM10 and PM2.5

Precursors............................................................................................. H-15

Table 1 Change in 2019 Design Value PM2.5 concentrations due to 50% 

Reduction in daily emissions of PM2.5, NOx, and SOx from NSR 

source categories within the SJV [μg m-3 ton-1].................................. H-87

Table 2 NOx:PM2.5 and SOx:PM2.5 trading ratios for Valley-wide emission

reductions of NSR source categories within the SJV ............................ H-87

Table 3 NOx:PM2.5 and SOx:PM2.5 trading ratios for county based 

Emission reductions of NSR source categories within the SJV............. H-88

Table 4 NOx:PM2.5 and SOx:PM2.5 trading ratios based on Speciated 

Linear Rollback Modeling Analysis of emission reductions of NSR 

source categories within the SJV .......................................................... H-89
San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District December 20, 2012

xxvi. Table of Contents, List of Figures, List of Tables

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

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