U.S. CENSUS MONITORING BOARD

Presidential Members

 How Would Adjusted 1990 Census Data

Have Made A Difference ?

 A Case Study of Long Beach, CA

February 15, 2001

Report Series

Report No. 06
February 15, 2001

The Presidential Members of the U.S. Census Monitoring Board present the

research findings of Dr. Chris Williamson, “How Would Adjusted 1990

Census Data Have Made A Difference? A Case Study of Long Beach, CA.”

The study examined how using adjusted 1990 Census data would have made

differences in policies, funding, and/or services of the City of Long Beach, the

Long Beach Transit Company, and the Long Beach Unified School District.

Dr. Williamson's research found that funding for public services and programs

would have increased, capital improvement funding would have been

augmented, and planning and related decision-making would have been

enhanced.

Sincerely,

Gilbert F. Casellas, Co-Chair

Gilbert F. Casellas, Co-Chair

U.S. Census

Monitoring

Board

4700 Silver Hill Road

Suite 1250-3

Suitland, MD 20746

PRESIDENTIAL MEMBERS

Phone: (301) 457-9900

Fax: (301) 457-9901

Gilbert F. Casellas

Co-Chair

Cruz M. Bustamante

Everett M. Ehrlich

Lorraine A. Green

Margarita Roque

Executive Director
The U.S. Census Monitoring Board

In November 1997, Congress established the eight-member Census Monitoring

Board; four members appointed by Congress, four by the President, charged

"to observe and monitor all aspects of the preparation and implementation of

the 2000 Decennial Census."

U. S Census Monitoring Board

Presidential Members

4700 Silver Hill Road

Suite 1250-3

Suitland, MD 20746

(301) 457-9900

www.cmbp.gov

e-mail: comment@cmbp.census.gov
HOW WOULD ADJUSTED 1990 CENSUS DATA

HAVE MADE A DIFFERENCE?

CASE STUDY

LONG BEACH, CA

February 15, 2001

Prepared for

U.S. Census Monitoring Board

Presidential Members

4700 Silver Hill Road

Suite 1250-3

Suitland, MD 20746

by

Dr. Christopher Williamson

Research Associate Professor

Geography, GIS, and Planning

University of Southern California

Los Angeles, CA
CONTENTS

I. Introduction and Purpose 1

II. Description of the Study Area 1

III. 1990 Census Undercount 3

IV. Study Findings 9

 A. City of Long Beach 10

B. Long Beach Transit 14

C. Long Beach Unified School District 15

V. Summary 17

Notes

Acknowledgements
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This focused investigation is indicative of many local government services that would

likely have been different had 1990 official Census data been adjusted. The City of

Long Beach, CA and two adjacent cities have a combined 2000 estimated population

of nearly 550,000. The estimated net 1990 Census undercount was 3.4 percent (9.2

percent for Blacks, 5.1 percent for Hispanics, and 5.5 percent for the under age 18

population). Of the estimated 18,350 people missed in the 1990 Census, 7,852 were

under age 18 (43 percent).

The study turned to the actual public service providers and asked how having had

adjusted 1990 Census data would have made differences in their policies, funding,

and/or services. If there is a similar Census 2000 undercount in Long Beach and

corrected data are not available and/or in official use, these findings are indicative of

lost funding and decision opportunities likely to continue for the next decade for

many urban local governments with similar services.

The city estimates that each missed person represented $56 in federal funding lost per

year. Over the ten years that 1990 data (or annual estimates based on the 1990

Census) were used, Long Beach lost nearly $10,000,000. If adjusted 1990 Census

data were used, annual city population estimates would have been higher, as would

projections of future population growth, an important component of the city's

Strategic Planning process.

Several departments would have benefited annually from adjusted 1990 Census data.

For example, the Library would have had an increase in annual AB345 state library

per capita funding, enough to purchase 1,240 books in FY00. Additional populationbased funding for the health department could have added three public nurses, a

homeless case manager, and removed lead-based paint in 13 additional housing units.

The police department would have had one half of the necessary funding for an

additional officer. Long Beach Transit would have had additional Proposition A and

federal transit funding of about $210,000 per year, enough to purchase an additional

bus.

Periodic state and county bonds allocate funds based partly or entirely on population

would have generated significant funds. Using adjusted data would have added

$193,000 for local parks from Proposition 12 passed in March, 2000. Census data are

indirectly used in determining rates, such as the crime rate, per capita electricity

consumption rate, or solid waste generation rate. Environmental impact analyses,

capital improvement plans, and quality of life indicators would all be improved with

more accurate census data. In no instance was using adjusted 1990 Census data

found detrimental.
1

HOW WOULD ADJUSTED 1990 CENSUS DATA

HAVE MADE A DIFFERENCE?

A CASE STUDY OF LONG BEACH, CA

by Dr. Christopher Williamson, AICP

Research Associate Professor, University of Southern California

I. Introduction and Purpose

Preliminary estimates of the Census 2000 national undercount range from a low of

0.96 percent to a high of 1.4 percent, about 3 to 4 million people. If the lower

estimate is used, the national net undercount is still roughly equal to the population of

the state of Iowa. Undercount estimates by race or Hispanic origin are as high as 9.16

percent.1 While all indications point to a significant reduction in the Census 2000

undercount compared to the 1990 Census, even a small national undercount will vary

geographically; vary by race and Hispanic origin; represent large populations in many

urban areas; and unfairly impact governments and organizations that use census data

for funding and other activities.

This study explores and documents specific funding, policies, and actions that would

have been arguably different had official 1990 Census data been corrected for error.

This is a case study of the City of Long Beach, CA, a full-service urban municipal

government, and its school district and local transit agency, all of which are similar to

many others located in the United States. The findings are not intended to be taken as

exact predictions, but indicative of many local services and policies in which

decennial census data had a direct or indirect role that would likely have been

different had 1990 Census data been adjusted.

It is assumed that the reader is familiar with Census 2000 and the plans to adjust

census data by using the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation program (A.C.E.). The

A.C.E. program was modeled after the Post Enumeration Survey (PES) that followed

the 1990 Census. While the official 1990 Census was not adjusted for undercount

error, a set of adjusted population counts (P.L.94-171) was created, based on the 1990

PES, and is generally considered to be more accurate for larger geographic areas.2

Assuming Census 2000 has a comparable undercount, these findings may be

interpreted as funding and decision opportunities that would be lost to many urban

governments and related service providers if Census 2000 data are not adjusted.

II. Description of the Long Beach Study Area

The City of Long Beach (CLB) is located in the southeastern corner of Los Angeles

County, bordering on the Pacific Ocean and Orange County. The city covers

approximately 50 square miles with an estimated 2000 population of 457,000 people.

The adjacent cities of Signal Hill (population 9,250) and Lakewood (81,000) are also

included in the Long Beach school district and transit service areas, for a combined

population of nearly 550,000.3

 The Long Beach Transit Company (LBT) is a non-
2

profit company, owned by CLB, that principally serves Long Beach, Lakewood, and

Signal Hill with several connecting lines to adjacent communities. The Long Beach

Unified School District (LBUSD) serves the three cities and also includes the island

of Santa Catalina's small year-round population of about 4,000.

Map 1 shows the study area with reference geography. The city of Avalon, located

on Santa Catalina Island, 20 miles to the south of Long Beach, is not shown and is

only included in the LBUSD enrollment data.

Long Beach is California's fifth largest city and one of its more industrialized. The

city's harbor is one of the world's busiest commercial container ports. The city is

perhaps best recognized as the home of the RMS Queen Mary, brought there in 1967

and the site of McDonnell Douglas's aircraft manufacturing (now part of Boeing).

Unlike many cities in California that contract with their county governments for

services. Long Beach provides all services including health, water, and gas. This

'full service' aspect makes Long Beach similar to many other cities and urbanized

counties. The city has a diverse population, a large four-year university, a twocampus community college, VA and three other hospitals, several shopping centers, a

high-rise downtown, commercial airport, a busy harbor, tourism, wide-range of

housing, movie studios, two large city-owned marinas, extensive parks and golf

courses, diverse employers, and four miles of beaches. It also has the range of

problems associated with large cities: gangs, crime, housing quality issues, education,

underemployment, fiscal resources limitations, and so on.
3

The Long Beach Unified School District (LBUSD) covers 128.6 square miles and

includes Long Beach, Signal Hill, Santa Catalina Island, and about 60 percent of

Lakewood. In October 2000, the K through 12 enrollment was 94,257 students. The

student population speaks many languages and come from a wide range of cultural

backgrounds. 1997 LBUSD data showed that 36.6 percent of K-12 students were

limited-English proficient with 38 languages spoken at home.

The district's 87 regular schools are organized under three area superintendents and,

as of April 1999, the district had a full time equivalent of nearly 8,000 regular

employees, making it second largest employer in the Long Beach area. The district

has a history of innovation, recently mandating school uniforms, reducing class sizes,

and creating magnet and charter schools. 4

LBT is a full-service urban transit agency formed in 1963 and operated by a nonprofit company owned by the City of Long Beach. There are 37 regular bus routes

plus an 'aqua bus' serving the tourist locations in the harbor, including the Queen

Mary. The company is located and operates out of two facilities located in central

and northern Long Beach. LBT uses census data in two principal ways: funding and

determining routes and stops (service planning).

III. 1990 Census Undercount

The 1990 Census net undercount was estimated at 1.6 percent for the entire nation,

2.7 percent for California, and 3.3 percent for Los Angeles County. The estimated

net undercount for the study area is shown in Figure 1.

 

The highest study area undercount rates were for the Black and Hispanic populations,

9.3 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively. The 'Other' tabulation is composed mostly

of Hispanics. This pattern also holds within each city, as shown in the next three

tables. Figure 5 illustrates the 1990 population diversity of Long Beach.
4

AIEA = American Indian, Eskimo, Aleut; API = Asian and Pacific Islander; NH = Non-Hispanic.

Hispanics may be of any race. Columns do not sum to the total (Total = White to Other OR Hisp to

NH Other).
5

 Figure 5

In general, households of low and moderate income (usually less than 80 percent of a

county median or mean household income) will use more local government services

than older and higher income households. That pattern holds true in Los Angeles

County and in the study area. The study area Black and Hispanic populations tend to

be of moderate and low income and use more government services than the more

affluent and older White population. The overall 1989 mean household income for

Long Beach was $41,251 while the mean income for Black households was $29,330

and for Hispanics was $30,896. These two groups, and to a less extent the Asian and

Pacific Islander population, also tend to be younger and more likely to have school

age children than the White population, as shown in Figure 6 (illustrates Long Beach

city only). 5

Figure 6
6

A detailed undercount analysis was prepared using the Adjusted and Official 1990

P.L. 94-171 Redistricting data by census tract, age, and Race and Hispanic origin.

The two sets of data were merged and the under age18 counts derived by subtracting

the Over 18 counts from the total population (Age 18 and over counts were required

for redistricting, but not the under age 18 count). This analysis was needed to help the

local officials better answer the question, "How would adjusted 1990 Census data

have made a difference?"

In general, the study area is a mix of population and income groups representative of

many urban areas. There are older 'central-city' type neighborhoods with mostly

renter-occupied housing and gang and relatively high crime rates (in the early 1990's).

There is a large public housing project in North Long Beach. Lakewood and portions

of East Long Beach have a suburban character with mostly owner-occupied

households, many now retired after originally arriving in the 1950's and 1960's from

the mid-west. Filipinos and Cambodians have recognized geographic locations and

community identities. There is a gay and lesbian population as well as a sizeable

college-age population and a 'beach town' feel in the Belmont Shore area.

In the study area, of the estimated 18,350 people missed in the 1990 Census, 7,852

were under age 18 (or 43 percent). The under age 18 population is the population in

primary and secondary schools, riding buses, using parks, needing health care (often

without adequate insurance), and possibly getting into trouble - five expensive local

government services: i.e. schools, transit, parks, health, and police. While the overall

estimated net undercount rate was 3.4 percent (9.2 percent for Blacks and 5.1

percent for Hispanics), it was generally higher for the under age 18 population: 5.5

percent for the total population (12.9 percent for Blacks, and 5.7 percent for

Hispanics).

Other urban areas in the United States will not have the same demographic and

economic profile as the study area. Many local government uses of census data are

not based on race and ethnicity but on total population and/or the age profile

regardless of race and ethnicity. Long Beach is a built-out city with little undeveloped

land. Urbanizing areas often make additional extensive use of census data to project

future growth; anticipate population characteristics; and plan new schools, roads, and

utilities in non-urban and/or as yet undeveloped areas.
7

The following maps illustrate the distribution of the adjusted population by 1990

Census tract.

Maps 2 and 3 show that the population is more concentrated in the southwest area, the

neighborhoods surrounding downtown Long Beach, and the northwest area, where

there is a large public housing project and many apartment buildings. The large
8

populated tracts in the southeast area include the Veterans Administration Hospital

and the California State University - Long Beach campus, both housing a group

quarters population.

Maps 4 and 5 show that most of the estimated undercounted population is located in

the same two areas of Long Beach with the largest populations, with an additional

undercounted population cluster in northeast Long Beach.
9

Map 6 shows the distribution of the missed under age 18 Blacks and Hispanics is

somewhat even throughout Long Beach, although the percentages are based on small

estimates in some of the east-side census tracts.

IV. Study Findings

The study asked if having had the additional population as described in the previous

section would have made differences in their policies, funding, and/or services. The

Honorable Beverly O'Neill (Mayor, City of Long Beach), Dr. Carl Cohn

(Superintendent, Long Beach Unified School District), and Lawrence Jackson

(General Manager, Long Beach Transit) were contacted and each referred the

question to appropriate staff who were directly involved in using census data.

The following three sections summarize discussions with these various staff and

review of documents. In funding examples, a multiplier of 10 is used to represent the

entire impact over the 10 years during which 1990 or 1990-based population data was

a component, if appropriate. These are estimates based on other relevant conditions

being unchanged, and may generally be interpreted as "best-case." If there is a

similar relative undercount in Census 2000 and corrected data are not available or in

official use, these findings are indicative of future lost funding and decision

opportunities that are likely to continue for the next decade for similar urban

governments, school districts, and public transit providers elsewhere in the United

States.
10

A. City of Long Beach (CLB)

Citywide

In a 1998 affidavit by the Advance Planning Officer, the city estimated that each

person missed in the 1990 Census represented $56 in lost annual federal funding.

Based on that figure and the city's 1990 undercount of 16,510, the lost funding

equaled $924,560 which, over the ten years the data (or annual estimates based on the

1990 Census) was used, represented nearly $10,000,000.5 This estimate included

many, if not all, of the 22 large Federal grant programs for which the city was already

receiving funding detailed in the 1999 General Accounting Office (GAO) report,

Formula Grants: Effects of Adjusted Population Counts on Federal Funding to

States.

The GAO report estimated that California would have received an additional

$223,000,000 in FY98, not including grants based on poverty rates or transit, an

increase of 1.62 percent over actual grants.6

 Since Long Beach's 1990 population

was 1.46 percent of the state's, based on adjusted data for both, the city's share of the

increased Federal funding in FY98 from these 22 programs would be $3,255,800,

although not all the funds would be passed through to local governments. The city's

estimate of $924,560 per year may actually be on the low side, given the GAO

findings.7 To gain a sense of what this amount would fund in one year, the FY00

budget for the city's Parking and Business Area Improvement Program was $1.5

million. This amount is about half the FY01 budget for access improvements

required by the Americans with Disability Act. Multiply these programs or capital

improvements by 10, and they represent a significant impact to the residents' quality

of life. 8

Library

California public libraries are funded annually through state law AB345, since 1997

based on the population of the library's service area. For FY00 the statewide library

fund is $56,870,000 of which the Long Beach Library system receives $758,298.

Had both the statewide and local amounts been adjusted for the 1990 Census

undercount, the FY00 Long Beach Library allocation would be about $28,000 higher.

According to the March 2000 School Library Journal, average hardcover books cost

$17.57. Libraries usually pay an additional $5 processing fee, for a total of $22.57.

Based on this amount, the additional funding represents 1,240 books. If this funding

formula were in place for ten years, assuming the additional funding were used only

for books, the number of books that were 'lost' due to the use of unadjusted 1990

census data number over 12,000. 9
11

Fire Department

The 500-member nationally-recognized Long Beach Fire Department bases its

operation's planning on actual calls (42,000 in 1999). An increase of 3.7 percent in

the city's 1990 Census population would not have triggered different decisions

regarding day-to-day operations. Since Long Beach is a fully developed city,

population projections do not play a major role in facilities planning in undeveloped

areas.

However, adjusted 1990 Census data would have made a difference in fire safety and

emergency preparedness , especially for earthquakes, run by the Community Services

Division. The staff would have considered additional events and publications based

on higher population counts, especially in the census tracts with the highest

undercounts. In some of those same tracts, a higher 1990 population would also

indicate a higher number of people per housing unit and/or the presence of illegal

housing units, such as converted garages.10 The new Code Enforcement section of

the Fire Prevention Bureau might also have considered additional areas for code

enforcement based on the higher population density per tract.

Health And Human Services

Long Beach provides the full range of public health services: collecting vital statistics

(births and death data), education, animal control, environmental health, hazardous

waste, preventive health, food stamps and family planning, and HIV and sexually

transmitted disease testing. Funding comes from a variety of federal and state

programs. Two programs in particular use population data in their funding formula:

State Core Public Health Functions ($6,047,632 in FY99) and HUD Continuum of

Care for Homeless ($2,643,879 in FY99). Increasing these grants by 3.7 percent

over 10 years would have generated an average of $220,068 per year ($163,479 from

the state and $57,201 from HUD). These increases could have funded approximately

three Full Time Equivalent (FTE) public health nurses (from the state) and 1.5 FTE

homeless case managers (from HUD).

The Long Beach Health Department also received three HUD grants focused on

housing: $8,000,000 total from Lead-Based Paint Hazard Removal (FY95 and FY98)

and $500,000 from Healthy Homes (FY99). Funding is partly based on the

population estimated to be at-risk in targeted housing units. Using adjusted 1990

Census data would have increased these two programs by about $52,000, enough to

remove lead-based paint in 13 additional housing units (assuming a cost of $4,000 per

unit). Adjusted 1990 census data would also have influenced the selection and

priority of census tracts where abatement programs operate. The Lead-Based Paint

Abatement Program's emphasis is on children's exposure to lead, and having better

census data on the number of young children would likely improve the program's

effectiveness. 11
12

Parks, Recreation, And Marine

California voters passed the Safe Neighborhood Parks, Clean Water, Clean Air, and

Coastal Protection Bond Act (Proposition 12) on March 7, 2000 authorizing

$588,000,000 in discretionary funds for each city and county for their local park and

open-space capital projects. The city is receiving $5,216,640 based on the city's

current population estimate (which is based on the 1990 Census). If adjusted 1990

Census data had been used and assuming subsequent population estimates were 3.7

percent higher, the Proposition 12 funds would be $193,000 higher (assuming the

total funding were also adjusted for the undercount). That amount is nearly the same

as the FY01 budget for citywide bikepath maintenance and improvements ($200,000)

or the construction of the proposed sports park ($190,000). 12

Planning And Building

Long Beach relies on the State Department of Finance Demographics Research Unit

(DRU) to estimate its population annually. This number was then widely used, as

described in the previous section. DRU benchmarks, or calibrates, its estimates and

projections to each national census. The 1990 undercount, then, is permanently

incorporated into the state and city's official estimates and projections. Had 1990

Census data been adjusted, subsequent annual DRU estimates and projections

throughout California would be correspondingly higher. If the 2000 data are

adjusted, the DRU intends to recalculate estimates and projections using 1990

adjusted data. 13

Long Beach is currently going through a Year 2010 "Strategic Planning" process

during which the City Council and community leaders are striving to understand

forces reshaping the city and recognize opportunities and challenges. The first topic

deals with the growing population and estimates an additional 33,000 residents by

2010. Much of the rest of the Strategic Plan is keyed to the impacts of the additional

population. 14 Had the 1990 Census been adjusted, this estimate of future population

growth would be higher since the 1980 to 1990 population change would have been

23.4 percent instead of 18.8 percent, nearly a 25 percent increase. Even a small

change in a rate, when projected out 10 to 20 years, will result in a large mathematical

change. These projections then become key assumptions for long-range planning and

capital improvements.

City population estimates and projections play a critical role in the environmental

review process required under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and

National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA). The analyses frequently use

population estimates to determine rates, such as the annual usage of water per capita

or the production of solid waste per person. These estimates are used by utilities and

other service providers to plan long range capital improvements. Per capita rates

derived from unadjusted 1990 Census data could lead to less accurate estimates of

future service demand.
13

The number of persons living in each occupied housing unit, known as Persons Per

Housing Unit (PPHU), is an indicator of quality of life. More than one person per

room is considered 'crowding' and crowding may lead to less privacy and more stress

for the occupants, more wear and tear on the unit itself, and higher demand for public

services and utilities. If the adjusted 1990 Census data had been used, the additional

population would have been allocated to existing housing units (no adjustment is

made for housing units), thereby increasing the PPHU and indicating additional

census tracts where crowding should be monitored. A higher PPHU could also

indicate that housing rents and prices are less affordable and fewer people can afford

to establish their own household. Not having used adjusted 1990 Census data, then,

has contributed to less accurate information about the residential quality of life of

Long Beach residents.

Police Department

Like the Fire Department, the Police Department bases it operations planning on

actual calls and an increase of 3.7 percent in the city's 1990 Census population would

not have triggered different decisions regarding day-to-day operations. Where the

adjusted data would have made a difference is in the calculation of the city's crime

rate and the funding of new police officers through the federal Office of Community

Oriented Policing Services (COPS).

The city's crime rate is calculated by dividing reported crime incidents by the

population. A larger 1990 Census population would have slightly reduced the crime

rate, as the number of incidents remained the same. The COPS program is

responsible for advancing community policing, including the addition of 100,000

community policing officers, authorized by Congress in 1994. In FY95, the city

received $1,150,000 and in FY99, $1,460,000 from this program. The funding

formula is complex, but had Long Beach's 1990 Census population been 3.7 percent

higher the total additional funding for FY95 would have been about $42,000. When

combined with required local matching funds, that amount is about one-half of the

annual cost of a full-time police officer. 15

Community Development

The city's funding from HUD's Community Development Block Grant (CDBG)

program increased from $3,946,879 to $25,403,642 between 1990 and 1997. CDBG

funds are used to provide housing and expand economic opportunities for low and

moderate income populations. Grants are determined by formulas that use

population, poverty, and either overcrowding or housing age as factors. The exact

funding impact of using adjusted 1990 Census data could not be determined for this

study. However, an estimate of a one percent increase in CDBG funding due to a

higher 1990 Census population count would have generated a total of $720,000

between 1990 and 1997. 16
14

B. Long Beach Transit (LBT)

Federal And Local Funding

Like most urban transit companies or agencies, considerable funding is provided by

annual grants from the federal and other governments. Federal Transit

Administration (FTA) Section 5307 grants are allocated to urbanized areas. Of the

funds earmarked for population areas greater than 200,000, 66.71 percent are for bus

service (as opposed to fixed rail and guideway service) and of those funds, about 62

percent are designated for urbanized areas of over 1,000,000 population. Then, 25

percent is allocated based on population, and 25 percent on population multiplied by

population density. 17

Section 5307 funds are allocated to LBT by the county regional transportation

planning agency based on a different formula that still include population. LBT

generally receives about 5.5 percent of the total Section 5307 regional funds allocated

to the county by a population-based formula. In FY98, LBT received $5,608,000. It

was not possible to recalculate the grant, but it is arguable that had the county

received FTA funding based on 3.3 percent higher adjusted 1990 Census population

(the undercount rate of Los Angeles County), then LBT would have also received

about $185,000. Since the grants are annual, the ten-year amount that could have

come to LBT through the use of adjusted 1990 Census data would have been

$1,185,000.

Los Angeles County also has a two half-cent sales taxes designated for mass transit,

one of which is called Proposition A. These funds are returned to cities based on

their population (annual estimates are based on 1990 data) and the city forwards 70

percent of its Proposition A funds to LBT. In FY95, the amount was $3,050,000.

Since this formula is updated annually, the FY95 figure serves as an approximate

mid-decade estimate that can be multiplied by 10 and increased by 3.3 percent, the

undercount rate for Los Angeles County. The resulting additional Proposition A

funding is estimated at just over $1,000,000.

Taking Section 5307 and Proposition A together, LBT could have received an

additional $2,185,000 over 10 years, or about $210,000 a year. That is roughly the

amount to operate one additional bus and close to the annual city subsidy that

supports the free downtown 'Passport' circulator bus service. It is arguable, then, that

the use of adjusted 1990 Census data would have added one bus to the streets of Long

Beach or paid for a portion of the cost of the public's free use of the downtown

circulator bus service.

Service Planning

Long Beach Transit's other use of census data is in planning bus routes, scheduling

bus service, and ensuring equitable distribution of service amenities throughout the

system. After the 1990 Census, LBT reviewed the data to identify possible

discrepancies compared to their service data (i.e., data based on actual bus ridership)

with the goal of finding missed underserved populations. Transit users have a

demographic profile that would suggest that the addition of the nearly 18,000 missed
15

people to the 1990 Census data would not have likely changed day to day operations.

In areas of existing low transit use, however, undercount data could indicate an area

in gradual transition towards a population more likely to desire transit service. This

information would influence long range service and capital planning. 18

C. Long Beach Unified School District (LBUSD)

Comparing LBUSD Enrollment To Census Data

The estimated 1990 Census undercount of the under age 18 population for the study

area is 7,852. If the undercount were evenly distributed by age, then about 28

percent would be under five years old, reducing the school age undercount to about

5,650. One would then expect 1990 Census school enrollment data (which is

unadjusted) to be 5,000 to 6,000 less than the comparable LBUSD enrollment data.

Primary and secondary school enrollment data are the only other universal population

counts that can be compared to census data as a check on census coverage. Figure 7

compares LBUSD enrollment (estimated for April 1990) to 1990 Census samplebased enrollment data for the LBUSD geographic area. The 1990 Census data show a

slightly larger enrollment, compared to LBUSD. The 1990 Census private school

enrollment was 7,523, about 9 percent of the combined census elementary and

secondary public and private enrollment. There was no feasible way to check this

census figure against private school enrollment data for the Long Beach study area.
16

First, parents with children in kindergarten at the time of the census (April, 1) may

have marked 'kindergarten' as a completed level (instead of 'nursery' or 'no school')

which then tabulated as 'currently enrolled in elementary.' This incorrectly inflated

the census elementary enrollment tabulation. The census listed about 4,500 preprimary students, which was supposed to include kindergarten students at the time of

the census, but LBUSD shows a kindergarten enrollment count of 6,257, not

including pre-primary enrollments. This strongly suggests the census elementary

enrollment count is overstated by several thousand.

A second explanation is that a higher proportion of the under age 18 undercounted

population are under age 5, compared to assuming an even distribution over all ages,

and therefore not yet in the LBUSD data. A third possible explanation is that high

school drop-outs, who are not in the LBUSD data, were counted as in school in the

census. The 1994 drop-out rate, for example, was 11.2 percent (it has since dropped

dramatically). Adding in the drop-outs would raise the LBUSD count, compared to

the census count, for the under age 18 age group.

Finally, public and parochial school children were exposed to repeated 1990 Census

awareness programs with the intent to educate and motivate their parents about the

census. This would further support the idea that the under 18 undercounted

population is composed more of infants and drop-outs than students enrolled and

attending school. The net effect of these explanations is that the relative match

between the 1990 Census and LBUSD enrollment data does not rule out an

undercount. If additional data were available on the ages of the undercounted and the

census pre-primary/elementary enrollment data were corrected, LBUSD enrollment

data would probably be larger than the census count.

Attendence Areas, Busing, Grants and Funding

The LBUSD uses its actual enrollment data to determine school attendance areas, to

manage busing, and to apply for various state and federal funding. An increase in

1990 Census data of the under age 18 population due to adjustment would not have

changed these operations, as the additional under age 18 population was already

captured in the actual school enrollment data.

Enrollment Projections

LBUSD estimates its future grade enrollments based largely on a rolling average of

the previous five years. Open enrollment within the district, cross-district

enrollments, and children coming back into the public system from private schools

complicate the process. When enrollments are higher, than expected numerous

immediate problems are encountered in providing classrooms, seats, texts, teachers,

meals, etc. In 1995, there was an unexpected (and still unexplained) jump in

enrollments of over 2,500 students, double the previous year's increase, of which 300

were kindergarten students. Had the 1990 Census been adjusted for the under age 5

population (as is proposed for Census 2000), the LBUSD may have had some early

warning that kindergarten enrollment would increase five years later.
17

Adjusted census data by age, as is proposed for Census 2000, could only help

LBUSD to estimate the total number of potential students (pre-school, private, and

drop-outs) they may have to accommodate, sometimes without much warning. 19

V. Summary

This study examined a full-service urban government, transit company, and school

district in order to illustrate how using adjusted 1990 Census data would have made a

difference during the previous decade. The table on the following page lists and

summarizes the documented examples.

The Long Beach city government is responsible for the health, safety, and welfare of

its residents and visitors. Long Beach Unified School District is responsible for the

quality education and safety of its students. Long Beach Transit is responsible for

efficient and equitable service. It is evident that having used adjusted 1990 Census

data would have added significant amounts of federal, state, and local funds to

various programs and services that directly impact their missions. Several of these

programs and services directly involve public safety and health, and others are

focused on long-range planning and capital investments. In no instance was using

adjusted 1990 Census data found to be detrimental to the public, it only helped.
18

HOW WOULD ADJUSTED 1990 CENSUS DATA HAVE MADE A DIFFERENCE?

A CASE STUDY OF LONG BEACH, CA

 Summary Table Program Change Significance

City of Long Beach

Citywide Federal

Programmatic

Funding,

22 programs

$924,560 per year,

about $10 million

during period 1990

data are in use

About 1/2 the FY01 budget for

improving access under the

Americans with Disabilities

Act.

Library AB345 state

Library funds

$28,000 additional

funds, FY00

Purchase of 1,240 books

Fire Department Community

Services

Additional outreach

and education

events

Improves public's safety

awareness and prevention

activities

Health and Human

Services

AB1288 Core

Public Health

funding and

HUD Homeless

Funding

Lead-Based

Paint Removal

and Healthy

Homes

Increase of

$220,068 per year

Increase of $52,000

Per year

3 full-time public health nurses

and 1.5 full-time homeless case

managers

Abate lead-based paint in 13

additional housing units

Parks, Recreation, and

Marine

Prop 12 bond

funding based

on population

Increase of

$193,000

Maintenance and improvements

of city bikepaths

Planning and Building Annual city

population

estimates

Environmental

Review

CEQA/NEPA

Quality of Life

Indicators,

PPHU and

Density

Higher estimates

and projections

Better estimates of

energy consumption

& waste generation

More accurate

crowding and

affordability

information

Better information for Strategic

Planning program

Better information for utility

and solid waste capital

improvements and policies

Better Quality of Life

information for decision and

policy-makers

Police Department COPS program

funding

Increase of $42,000

in FY95

Additional 1/2 police officer

Community

Development

CDBG program $720,000 increase Double the FY01 budget for

neighborhood traffic mitigation

Long Beach Transit

Funding FTA Section

5307 grants

Prop A 1/2 cent

sales tax transit

funding

Increase of

$185,000 in FY 98

Increase of $1

Million over 10

years

One additional city bus

Or

Annual city cost of free

downtown circulator service

Service Planning Planning

service and

routes

Increase in

population likely to

use transit

Better indications of areas with

increasing transit need, better

long-range planning

Long Beach Unified School District

Enrollment

Projections

Enrollment by

grade by school

projections

Higher census count

of under age 5

population

Better projections of entering

Kindergarten class
19

NOTES

1 Table 1: "Preliminary Estimated Coverage of Census 2000 Based on the Accuracy and

Coverage Survey" and Table 2: "Estimated Coverage of the 1990 Census Based on the

Post Enumeration Survey" Press Release, February 14th, 2001, Bureau of the Census.

< http://www.census.gov/Press-Release>

2 "Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation: Statement on the Feasibility of Using Statistical

Methods to Improve the Accuracy of Census 2000", Kenneth Prewitt, Director, Bureau of

the Census, June 2000, p. 24, footnote 37.

3 CA Department of Finance, annual city and county estimates, <http://www.dof.ca.gov>.

4 LBUSD, and from various pages <http://www.lbusd.k12.ca.us/>.

5 This general background information comes from the 1990 Census and the Long Beach

'90 four volume report prepared for internal city use by John W. Humphrey and Chris

Williamson between 1993 and 1995.

6 Affidavit of John W. Humphrey, Advance Planning Officer, dated

March 25, 1998. City of Long Beach.

7 Formula Grants: Effects of Adjusted Population Counts on Federal Funding to States,

General Accounting Office, Report 99-69, February 1999.

8 All budget information taken from < http://www.ci.long-beach.ca.us/citymanager>

9 Memorandum from Theresa Graham, Administrative Officer, and conversation with

Richard Steinhaus, Library Department, Feb. 6, 2001.

10 Conversation with Dan Gooch, Director Administration Bureau, Long Beach Fire

Department, 1/19/01.

11 Meeting with David Honey, Health and Human Services, Feb. 2, 2001.

12 Conversation with Gail Wasil, Superintendent of Contract Operations,

Feb 1, 2001 and < http://www.pcl.org/bonds/12funding.html>

13 Conversation and e-mail with Linda Gage, Director, CA Department of Finance

Demographic Research Unit. Jan. 22, 2001.

14 Long Beach Strategic Plan - 2010 < http://www.ci.longbeach.ca.us/citygov/strategicplan/index.htm>

15 Conversation with Ed Hatzenbuhlen, LBPD, Jan. 23, 2001 and

<http://www.communitypolicing.org/about3.html>

16 John W. Humphrey, Advance Planning Officer, "Schedule of Federal Grant Expenditures

for the Period January 1, 1990 - September 30, 1997." Table.

17 Federal Register, Vol. 63, No. 121, June 24, 1998, Notices, "Apportionment Formula for

Sections 5307 and 5311 Formula Grants."

18 Brynn Kernaghan, Manager of Government Relations, LBT, telephone conversations -

1/4/01 to 1/30/01.

19 Meeting with Vickie Will, Attendance Accounting Specialist, LBUSD, January 30, 2001

and conversation with Lynn Winters, Asst. Superintendent, Feb. 6, 2001.
20

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I wish to acknowledge the many busy staff in the City of Long Beach, Long Beach

Transit, and Long Beach Unified School District who managed to converse and

correspond with me for this study.

Special thanks to Jack Humphrey, the city's Advance Planning Officer, who steered

me to the various knowledgeable staff and reviewed the study.

This study was based on five years of monitoring Census 2000 as it was planned,

tested in the 1998 Dress Rehearsals, carried out, and now partially tabulated and

released. The following organizations supported this research at one time or another:

• American Planning Association

• USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development

• USC College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences; Department of Geography

• USC Population Research Lab

• USC Transdisciplinary Tobacco Use Research Center

• Environmental Sciences Research Institute

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Williamson (Chris) is a Research Associate Professor of Geography at the

University of Southern California (USC) who directs and teaches the GIS Graduate

Certificate Program. His current research focuses on Census 2000, from the detailed

changes in census geography to the combinations of the new Two or More tabulation.

He is the author of the forthcoming book Making Sense of Census 2000: A Guide to

the New Geography and Data (ESRI Press, April 2001). Chris worked for the U.S.

Bureau of the Census as a computer analyst, geographer, survey statistician, and

Special Assistant to the Director. He has first-hand knowledge and experience with

census geography, census data collection procedures, quality control, questionnaire

design, interviewer training, and data products including raw data, metadata, and

summary reports. As the Special Assistant to the Director, he wrote speeches and

prepared documents for the White House and Congress. Between 1989 and 1992 he

worked as a consultant and city planner researching and writing legally adequate

environmental documents and planning reports and ordinances that used census data

extensively. As the GIS Planner for the City of Long Beach between 1992 and 1995,

he wrote a series of demographic and economic atlases about the city based on

census, state, and city data and was the city's census expert. He is a Research

Associate of the Lusk Center for Real Estate, Population Research Laboratory, and

the Trans-disciplinary Tobacco Use Research Center. He is a member of the

American Institute of Certified Planners (AICP).